ASA play on: UNDER 219.5 San Antonio Spurs @ Boston Celtics, 7:30PM ET – This game has meaning for both teams as the Celtics are battling for home court in the first round of the playoffs but currently sit 5th in the East. San Antonio sits safely in 8th in the West but are only a game out of 5th which would mean going to Portland instead of say Denver or Golden State. With plenty to play for we expect a defensive game which results in a lower total. We’re seeing the Spurs settling into playoff intensity as they’ve now gone Under the total in 8 of their last ten games. In their last six games the oddsmakers have adjusted their totals to 221 or less four times. San Antonio is 22nd in the league in pace of play on the season averaging 98.5 possessions per game. In their last five games the Spurs tempo has slowed even more to 96.8 possessions per game which is 5th slowest. Boston has also preferred to play slower all season long with the 17th slowest tempo in the NBA. The Celtics have the 6th best overall defensive efficiency rating for the season as they allow just 1.077 points per possession. The Spurs haven’t been great defensively on the season, but they have been their last five games allowing just 1.057PPG over that stretch of games. In their last three home games against similar teams from the Western Conference (Denver, Houston and Portland) the Celtics and those opponents have scored 219, 219 and 189 total points. When playing without rest this season the C’s games have averaged just 214.2PPG. After blowing an 18-point lead last night the Celtics will be much more focused on the defensive end of the court. The bet here is UNDER THE TOTAL!

ASA 10* PLAY ON Virginia Tech -8.5 over Liberty, Sunday at 7:10 PM ET

We think the line value is on Va Tech here.  The power rating difference between Va Tech & Liberty is in the exact same range as the difference between Duke vs UCF along with UNC vs Washington.  While those spreads sit at -13 and -12 respectively, the Hokies are laying only 9.  We used Va Tech vs St Louis in the first round and the Hokies were up 40-18 at half but got complacent in the 2nd stanza and won by 14.  We mentioned in that analysis we feel VT is underrated.  They rank in the top 20 in both offensive and defensive efficiency.  They are one of only 8 teams that can make that claim and the other 7 teams are all #1 or #2 seeds.  Liberty trailed for much of their opener vs Miss State but made a bunch of 3’s late for their comeback 4-point win, which was their largest lead of the game.  They are facing an MSU defense that isn’t great and they are terrible at defending the 3 (254th nationally) so it was a solid match up for the Liberty offense.  They won’t have nearly as much success today vs a very athletic and active VT zone defense.  Tech also received a huge boost on Friday when starting PG and leader Justin Robinson returned after missing 12 straight games to end the season.  Robinson gave them a solid 28 minutes (9 points) and should play even better today with a game under his belt.  Liberty got their big comeback win on Friday, their first every tourney win.  Today we think they are in big trouble vs a VaTech team that is the best team they’ve played this season.  Similar to what happened to Murray State yesterday (we were on FSU in that game) we see a potential blowout here.  Take Va Tech.   

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Tennessee (-7.5) over Iowa, Sunday at 12:10 PM ET

We played against Iowa on Friday vs Cincinnati and it looked great early on as Cincy jumped out to a 13 point first half lead.  The Bearcats still led by 5 at halftime and then Iowa shot the lights out in the 2nd half.  For the game the Hawkeyes shot almost 55% including 11 three pointers.  The Hawks don’t score all that effectively inside (46% of their points – 281st nationally) and Tennessee is great defensively inside the arc allowing teams to shoot just 44% (14th nationally).  That means Iowa better be making their 3’s again to stay in this game and we just don’t see them shooting like that again vs this talented Tennessee team.  Let’s not forget that the Vols could have easily been a #1 seed and they were ranked #1 in the nation for much of the season.  This line does not reflect that as they are laying just -8 vs an Iowa team that sans their performance yesterday, simply wasn’t playing well losing 6 of their previous 8 games, with 4 of those 6 losses coming by double digits.  The Vols can score from all levels as they are very good inside the arc but have shooters that can score from deep.  They prefer to score inside which turns into a terrible match up for Iowa’s defense.  UT hits 56% of their shots from 2-point land (19th nationally) and they score 56% of their points inside the arc (20th nationally).  Iowa’s interior defense has been poor all season as they allow opponents to make almost 54% of their shots inside the 3-point line (309th nationally).  The Vols should feast inside and as we said they are more than capable from deep as well making 36% of their 3’s.  They also make 77% of their FT’s so if they get to the line they will take advantage there as well.  UT is better offensively (3rd nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency) and much better defensively.  Iowa had their out of the ordinary shooting game on Friday and they come back to earth here.  That leads to a double digit win for UT.

ASA play on: #528 Portland Trailblazers -5 over Detroit Pistons, 10PM ET – First we’ll apologize for an abbreviated analysis today. The NCAA Tourney has us extremely busy. But rest assured we’ve done all the work as usual with our handicapping process but are limited with time for write ups. Both teams have plenty to play for as they battle for better position in their perspective conferences. We are aware of Detroit’s current 15-5 SU record but they haven’t been a good road team all season long with a 14-21 SU away mark. The Pistons road point differential of -3.2PPG is 16th in the league and a big reason why is their offensive struggles away from home (23rd in road OEFF ratings). Portland has been fantastic at home this season with a 27-9 SU record and an average differential of +8.2PPG which is 4th best in the league. They have the 2nd best offensive efficiency rating on their home court this season, averaging 1.170 points per possession. Taking a closer look at Detroit’s road results we see they’ve struggled against good teams on the road. Against playoff teams recently they lost at Miami by 34, Brooklyn by 28, San Antonio by 12, at Boston by 8 and at Utah by 6-points. Portland has had some impressive home wins lately against some of the best teams in the West and most recently beat a Pacers team at home by 8 who is rated better than the Pistons in the East. Even without McCollum we like the Blazers to get a double-digit home win here. Lay it!

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Villanova +4 over Purdue, Saturday at 9:00 PM ET

Our power rating has Purdue favored by 2 in this game so we feel we’re getting a full possession of value.  We went against the Boilers on Thursday and missed by a half point.  ODU was +12.5 in that game, trailed by 9 with 4:00 remaining and made one shot the rest of the way losing by 13.  We still contend Purdue is overrated right now.  They didn’t play great down the stretch losing twice to Minnesota and playing a number of close games on the road down the stretch losing @ Maryland and barely beating Indiana & Nebraska.  The Boilers rely way too heavily on one guy.  Carsen Edwards.  He took 611 shots leading into last night’s game where he was 7 for 23 (30%).  He shooting just barely over 25% his last 4 games combined as he is clearly wearing down.  The problem with Thursday’s game is ODU is a poor shooting team and they struggled to score so they could not take advantage of Edward’s struggles.  We thought it would be a very low scoring game and ODU could keep it within the 12.5 points which they almost did despite shooting just 26% for the game and 24% from beyond the arc.  Purdue won’t get that luxury with Nova.  The Boiler defense goes from defending the 240th most efficient offense to the 16th most efficient with Villanova.  Both teams shoot a lot of 3’s and both shoot them pretty well.  Nova defends the arc better which should help here.  The Cats are more balanced and led by 2 seniors (Booth & Paschall) who started on last year’s National Championship team.  They are led by possibly the best coach in college basketball, Jay Wright who’s won 2 of the last 3 National Championships, and you can bet they’ll be prepared here.  This team knows how to get it done at tourney time and we think they’ll win this game outright.  Take the points.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Florida State -4.5 over Murray State, Saturday at 6:10 PM ET

The value is absolutely on FSU here.  They are favored by 4.5 to 5 which is the same number Marquette was favored over Murray State.  FSU power rates to the 16th best team nationally while Marquette is 31st.  The Eagles were faltering at the end of the season losing 5 of 6 coming into the Dance.  Because people saw what Murray did to an overrated Marquette team, they are now the talk of the town.  FSU is a different animal.  While Marquette had nobody that could guard Ja Morant, the Noles have plenty of big perimeter defenders with all starters measuring 6’4 or taller.  Not only are they big (12th tallest team in the nation) they defend very well (11th nationally in defensive efficiency).  This will be the best defense the Racers have faced this season.  Don’t expect them to shoot 53% from the field as they did they did the other night vs a Marquette defense that had no chance to contain Morant.  FSU can get it done offensively as well (32nd in offensive efficiency) with 7 players that average between  7 PPG and 13 PPG.  The Noles should control the boards as well in this one.  They are one of the better offensive rebounding teams in the nation while Murray ranks 223rd in defensive rebounding.  Not that FSU needed any extra motivation but they have it here.  One of the leaders, Phil Cofer who is currently injured, lost his father on Thursday after their win and you can guarantee this team will play as hard as they have all season on Saturday.  Murray State is a very nice story but to give you an idea of where they stand, based on power ratings, they would be the 10th best team in the ACC, just behind Syracuse.  They had a nice win on Thursday which was a perfect situation for them playing a faltering team with nobody to slow down Morant.  FSU is a different animal and we like the Noles to roll here.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Virginia Tech -10 over St Louis, Friday at 9:55 PM ET

This is a terrible match up for a St Louis team that really shouldn’t even be in this tourney.  The Billikens were the 4th best team in the A10 this year but made a 4 wins in 4 days run in the conference tourney to get in.  First of all that’s not a great situation to begin with as far as STL’s depth is concerned.  They are a very thin team (341st in depth) and they will now be playing their 5th game in 9 days.  They are a terrible shooting team ranking 322nd in eFG%, 327th in 3-point % (30.8%) and dead last in FT % (59%).  Tonight they face one of the best defenses in the nation as VT ranks 25th in adjusted defensive efficiency.  The Billikens aren’t used to playing top notch defenses as they faced just 4 top 50 defenses (adjusted efficiency) the entire season and averaged 60 PPG in those games.  Tech has a mammoth edge offensively in this game where they rank 7th nationally in eFG% and that’s with a majority of their games in the ACC which has 10 top 50 defenses.  Tech also lights it up from 3-point land hitting 39% which ranks 9th nationally.  The Hokies are tough to guard with 4 players averaging between 13 and 17 PPG.  They should also get a boost tonight (both on the court and emotionally) when their leader, point guard Justin Robinson (14 PPG), returns from injury.  He’s been out since February 1st and while we don’t expect a ton of production from him in his first game back, just having him back on the court will be a lift for his teammates.  With this total set at 126, the oddsmakers expect a final score in the 68-58 range.  We think Va Tech gets into the 70’s here while we have a hard time seeing St Louis getting to that number of 58 here.  Take Virginia Tech tonight.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Under 166.5 Points - Iona vs North Carolina, Friday at 9:20 PM ET

We see this game playing out very much like yesterday’s game between Gonzaga and Farleigh Dickinson.  It was a game the Zags jumped out big and led 53-17 at halftime.  In the 2nd half with a large lead, the Zags shut it down and coasted to an 87-49 win (146 points).  FDU really struggled to score against the longer, more athletic Zags.  We see Iona having the same problem here.  If the Gaels were a prolific 3-point shooting team or really good shooting team period, then we wouldn’t be on this under.  But the fact is, Iona was an average shooting team in a bad defensive conference.  They rank 133rd nationally in offensive efficiency and 133rd in 3-point shooting percentage.  That’s in an MAAC that was terrible defensively with 9 of their 11 teams ranking 200 or lower in defensive efficiency.  Now Iona faces a UNC defense that ranks 10th nationally in that category.  We feel Iona will struggle to get good shots and struggle to score in this game.  UNC will score and they’ll run.   That’s what they do.  However, that’s what Gonzaga likes to do as well and you saw how that game turned out.  UNC could score 50 or more by halftime but the in the 2nd half we look for them to slow the game down a bit, substitute players, and make sure they are fresh for Sunday, similar to what the Zags did yesterday.  We don’t think Iona gets to 70 in this game.  We look for low 60’s based on our numbers.  If that happens UNC has to get to 100 for this to have a chance.  Even if the Heels keep the pressure on, which we can’t imagine they will, and get to 95, Iona would have to get to 72 to get this game over the number.  We just don’t see that happening.  With UNC favored by 22 the oddsmakers see this score around 94-72.  We think neither team reaches that number.  Take the UNDER. 

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Under 142 Points - Georgia State vs Houston, Friday at 7:20 PM ET

This play is backed by a longtime trend that involves a #3/#14 seed which is 12-30 to the Under the last 42 times it’s applied. This Houston Cougars team isn’t the Phi Slama Jama team of the early 80’s, that was built on transition and outscoring opponents. This Cougars team is tenacious defensively with the 13th overall defensive efficiency rating and the #1 EFG% defense. Houston is the 2nd best team in nation in defending the 3-point shot and 5th against 2-pointers. The Cougars also protect the rim with a team that ranks 20th in the country in block percentage. On the year Houston held opponents to just 36.7% shooting and 61.2PPG. Georgia State allowed 1.026 points per possession this year which is above average by national standards, but it was their D late in the season which has us excited for this Under. In their last five games the Panthers have held opponents to just 37% shooting and an average of 65PPG. And three of those five games came against the best teams in the Sun Belt, which is an efficiency conference overall that likes to play fast. In their two Sun Belt tourney games the Panthers combined for just 105 points with Texas State and 137 with UT Arlington. The bet here is UNDER the total. 

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Arizona State +5 over Buffalo, Friday at 4 PM ET

We were on ASU in their first 4 game vs St Johns and the game was never really in doubt.  The Devils never trailed and led by as many at 18 points.  We felt ASU was going to be a very dangerous team in this tourney if they got in.  They had some ups and downs during the Pac 12 season – although they finished 2nd by themselves behind Washington – but they are very talented.  If focused and motivated they showed what they can do beating Kansas early in the season when the Jayhawks were ranked #1.  They have NBA talent on their team in Dort & Cheatham and they are tough to guard with 4 guys averaging 11+ PPG.  We respect Buffalo and feel they are very good, however we also feel they are overrated coming into this tourney.  They breezed through the MAC to a 16-2 record, however we felt all year the MAC is simply a poor Division 1 league.  The MAC has just 2 teams ranked in the top 100 (Toledo & Buffalo) and Toledo has already been whipped by 14 @ Xavier in the NIT.  The other MAC team that has played thus far in the post-season is Central Michigan and they lost by 14 @ DePaul (the lowest rated team in the Big East) and gave up 100 points in the process.  The MAC is proving us correct thus far.  The Bulls simply haven’t played a team anywhere close to as talented as Arizona State since mid December and that was a 103-85 loss to Marquette.  Their best win was @ Syracuse which was solid and then their next best non-conference win was in OT vs West Virginia which looked great at the time but WVU turned out to be one of the 2 worst teams in the Big 12.  Many talk about the 5 vs 12 upsets over the years but they should be talking about the 6 vs 11.  The 11 seeds are 21-19 SU and 26-14 ATS the last 40.  Better yet, when the 6 seed is from a mid major conference (Buffalo) and the 12 seed is from a Power 5 conference (ASU) the 6 seed is 1-14 ATS!  We like Arizona State to pull off this upset and move on.  Take the points.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Cincinnati -3.5 over Iowa, Friday at 12:15 PM ET

We love this match up for Cincy.  The Bearcats were the 2nd best team in the AAC all season long behind Houston.  They beat Houston in the AAC Championship game by double digits which was extremely impressive as the Cougars are a 3-seed in the NCAA with a 31-3 record.  They dominated their game vs Houston holding the lead from start to finish.  Now they face an Iowa team that simply played terrible down the stretch.  It could be argued the Hawkeyes were one of the worst teams in the Big 10 since mid February.  They lost 6 of their last 8 games and even their wins weren’t impressive with 4 of their last 5 W’s were very close coming down to the final minute of the game.  We were looking to go against the Hawkeyes in this tourney and we feel we have a perfect match up to do so here.  Iowa is one of the worst defensive teams in the NCAA field ranking 112th in adjusted defensive efficiency and 207th in eFG% defense.  Compare that to Cincinnati’s defense (28th and 52nd in those categories) and you’ll see the Bearcats have a big advantage defensively.  Cincy can struggle at times offensively, however they looked like the caught fire in the AAC tourney on that end of the court putting up 1.30, 1.05, and 1.13 points per possession in their 3 games.  That final number (1.13 PPP) was against a Houston defense that is 11th in the nation defensively allowing just 0.91 PPP.  Now facing a porous Iowa defense, we like the Cincinnati offense to play well again.  The Bearcats should also get a number of 2nd chances as they are 4th nationally in offensive rebounding percentage facing an Iowa team that ranks 221st in defensive rebounding.  This game is also being played in Columbus OH so this should have a home game feel for Cincinnati which is only 100 miles away.  Iowa spent the early part of the Big Ten season beating up on teams in the lower half of the league.  It caught up to them down the stretch as they were just 2-9 SU in the Big 10 versus teams that made the NCAA tourney.  The Bearcats are the tougher team with the better defense and better rebounding.  They’ll hold their own offensively and cover this one.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Old Dominion +12.5 over Purdue, Thursday at 9:50 PM ET

ODU won 3 down to the wire games in CUSA tourney to get here by margins of 1, 2, and 6 points. Purdue was upset by Minnesota 75-73 in the Big Ten Quarterfinals and lost to the Gophs twice down the stretch. The Monarchs are a slow team (#325 in tempo) that plays very good defense. They hold teams to 0.96 PPP and they rank 14th nationally limiting opponents to an eFG% of just 45.6%. They will absolutely turn this game into a grinder. They do have solid guard play with Stith and Carver leading the team in scoring (both 16 PPG). The Boilers shoot 3’s. That’s what they do. Unfortunately their main man Carsen Edwards has taken over 600 shots on the year (almost double the next highest for Purdue) and he is wearing down. He's made just 25% of this 3 point attempts over his last 3 games.  ODU's guards are physical and play very good defense so Edwards may struggle again. Purdue relies heavily on the 3 point shot and the Monarchs are solid defending the arc allowing just 32%.  While ODU does struggle on offense, they shouldn't need to do much on that end to cover this big number.  This is expected to be a very low scoring game with the total set at 126 to getting this many points is the play. OLD DOMINION

ASA play on: #589/590 UNDER 218 Detroit Pistons @ Phoenix Suns, 10PM  - During the regular season the Pistons are the 4th slowest paced team in the NBA but in their last five games they are actually THE slowest paced at just 93.9 possessions per game. On the year the Pistons have the 11th best defensive efficiency rating while Phoenix is 29th or second to last. But the Suns have been much better defensively in their past five games allowing just 1.113 points per possession which is 15th best in the league. Detroit has really struggled to shoot the basketball of late as they are averaging below 40% their previous five games. In eight of their last ten games the Pistons have allowed 108 or less points to opponents. The Suns have allowed 111 or less in 5 of their last nine. The Pistons just allowed 126 points to the Cavs so their will be a concentrated effort to be much better on that end of the court. In fact, when the Pistons have allowed 125 or more points in a game, in their next contest the Under is 6-1. Phoenix has also played Under in 5 straight home games. The bet here is UNDER the total.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Under 131 Points - St Marys vs Villanova, Thursday at 7:20 PM ET

St Mary’s won WCC tourney by beating Gonzaga 60-47.  Nova won the Big East tourney winning their 3 games by margins of 11, 4 in OT, and 2 points.  Zags averaged 90 PPG on the season and St Mary’s held them to 69 & 47 points their final 2 meetings of the season.  Gaels held 6 of their final 8 opponents to 65 points or less and they play very slow ranking #347 in tempo out of 351 teams.  Villanova plays very slow as well (#333 in tempo) so not many possessions in this game.  Nova relies heavily on the 3-point shot with almost 43% of their points coming from beyond the arc (9th most nationally).  The Gaels defend the 3 well so that should make it tough on Nova's offense.  Neither team fouls very much so we don't expect many points from the charity stripe in this game.  Neither team is adept at forcing turnovers and both protect the ball well offensively so we won't see many steals and run outs here.  We expect this game to be a grinder with the winner scoring in the low 60's.  UNDER is the play.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Florida +2.5 over Nevada, Thursday at 6:50 PM ET

This is a battle of opposite styles as Nevada wants to play fast (#88 in adjusted tempo) and Florida wants a slow, half court game (#346 in adjusted tempo).  This total sits at 132.5 so that tells us the Gators will get the tempo they want which we agree.  A lot easier to slow a fast team down than speed up a slow team.  The Gators were underwhelming this season playing to just a 9-9 SEC mark and 19-15 overall.  They are better than their record and that tells you why a team that is 27-4 (Nevada) is favored by just 2 points over a team that is 19-15 (Florida).  The Gators finished 8th in the SEC yet they are the 28th ranked team nationally (power rating).  They are very good defensively with an adjusted defensive efficiency ranking of 14th in the nation.  Nevada won 24 of their first 25 games this year but were just 5-3 in their final 8 games and trending downward in our opinion.  Lost in the MWC semi-finals to San Diego State, their 2nd loss at the hands of the Aztecs this season.  Senior forward Jordan Caroline (17 PPG & 10 RPG) missed the game vs SDSU due to an Achilles issue but will be back for this game but not at 100%.  Nevada has a very thin bench and they rely almost exclusively on their starters + 1 sub.  Nevada played only 3 games the entire season vs teams that made the NCAA tourney.  They were 2-1 splitting with conference rival Utah State and beating Arizona State by 6 in the non-conference.  Florida played the MUCH tougher schedule and seems to be peaking.  Take the Gators
 

OVER 149.5 Murray State vs Marquette, Thursday at 4:30 PM ET (Hartford, CT)

Murray State can score as they average 81 PPG.  Guard Ja Morant will be a first round NBA pick and he is averaging 24 PPG.  He’s not the only Racer that can score as they have 3 others that average more than 10 PPG.   You’d think with good guard play Murray State shoots a lot of 3’s but they don’t.  They score almost 54% of their points inside the arc which is 60th nationally.  They also shoot 57% inside the arc which is the 2nd best percentage in the nation.  Marquette is the opposite.  They shoot a lot of 3’s and they make them at a 39.3% clip (9th nationally).  Markus Howard, the Hauser brothers, and Sacar Anim ALL shoot over 40% from deep.  They struggle to score inside with most of those points coming off 3-point misses.  Murray State’s defense looks like they match up well as they give up only 28% from beyond the arc which is good for 4th best nationally.  However, that might be exaggerated due to their easy schedule (270TH) which also plays a part in their inflated defensive efficiency numbers of .987 points per possession. Murray State ranks 97th in tempo or pace and get a shot up every 16.4 seconds which is 64th.  Marquette is 119th in tempo and get a field goal attempt every 16.9 seconds for 96th. Both teams are top 50 in EFG% offense meaning they don’t need a lot of attempts to efficiently score. It all adds up to an EASY OVER!

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Under 134 Points - Bradley vs Michigan State, Thursday at 2:45 PM ET

After starting the conference season 0-5, Bradley rallied and finished in 5th place in the MVC this year with a 9-9 record.  They won the MVC tourney winning 3 games in 3 days last weekend, 2 of those as an underdog.  The Braves scored just 61, 53, and 57 points in those 3 and were able to win all 3.  Scoring has been a problem for Bradley scoring just 66 PPG this season finishing 8th in the 10 team league.  This team hasn’t gotten to 70 points since February 9th.  Braves play very slow (#299 in tempo) and rely on their defense which was #1 in the Missouri Valley in eFG% defense.  Bradley will have a tough time getting their offense moving in the right direction vs MSU defense that ranks 8th in adjusted efficiency and 6th in eFG% defense.  It’s easily the best defense Bradley has faced this year.  To give you an idea, the top rated defense in the MVC is Loyola and they rank 99th in adjusted defensive efficiency, basically 90 spots below Michigan State.  Only 1 of MSU’s last 11 opponents has topped 70 points.  This should be a grinder and UNDER is the play.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Arizona State -2 over St Johns, Wednesday at 9:10 PM ET

These two were heading in opposite directions down the stretch.  ASU won 6 of their last 8 games with their only 2 losses coming at the hands of red hot Oregon who has now won and covered 8 games in a row.  The Devils played the Ducks tougher than anyone on the Pac 12 tourney losing by 4 in overtime.  That’s rather impressive as the Ducks beat all of their other 3 opponents in the Pac 12 tourney by double digits including beating regular season champ Washington by 20 points.  They were also the much more consistent team this year finishing alone in 2nd in  the Pac 12 with a 12-6 record.  St Johns, on the other hand, is sitting in this position mainly due to their 14-1 start to the season.  That gave them quite a buffer and they needed it as they went 7-11 the rest of the way.  The Johnnies have lost 5 of their last 7 games including setbacks at the hands of DePaul, Providence, and Xavier (twice) all non-NCAA tourney teams.  Their top scoring guard Ponds is shooting only 42% from the field his last 5 games and it looks to us like he is starting to wear down after carrying the load for much of the season.  Ponds is a slight 6’1 and 175 pounds and the physical Big East has taken it’s toll.  He’s been held below his scoring average (20 PPG) in 7 of the last 9 games.  ASU gets to the line as much as any team in this tourney with over 22% of their points this year coming from the charity stripe (21st nationally).  That’s bad news for St Johns as they foul A LOT.  Expect the Sun Devils to live at the foul line tonight.  Another huge advantage for ASU will be on the boards ranking 38th nationally in rebound margin compared to the Johnnies who are 337th in that category.  That should lead to a number of extra opportunities in this game.  In a potential close game if ASU can get some extra shot attempts up due to their rebounding advantage and end up at the FT line more often, that will make a huge difference.  ASU was in this play in game last year and lost to Syracuse so a little extra motivation for them along with the familiarity of playing in this situation.  The Johnnies haven’t won an NCAA tourney game since 2000 and they may just be happy to be here.  Lay the small number with Arizona State.

ASA play on: Washington Wizards -2.5 over Chicago Bulls, 8PM ET – Somebody in the Bulls front office needs to sit down head coach Jim Boylan and ask him what the hell he is doing? The Bulls currently sit a game and a half in front of the Cavs for a better chance at securing a better pick in this year’s draft. In any event, the Bulls return home off a 3-game road trip and are off a win in their previous game so expect a letdown here. Chicago has NO home court advantage as they own the worst point differential in the league on their home court of -8.7PPG. Chicago is the least efficient offensive team in the league at home and the 2nd worst in defensive efficiency. Granted the Wiz have been a horrible road team but they are still mathematically alive for the 8th seed in the East and have something to play for. Washington comes into this game off a loss and a horrendous shooting night by Bradley Beal so expect a concentrated effort here. Washington has won 3 of their last five games overall and are a healthier unit coming into this game. We like the added incentive of a few former Bulls (Portis and Parker) who were traded to the Wizards at the trade deadline, facing their previous team. Both have played much better since the deal and both were instrumental in a 9-point win here earlier this month. Take the better team with more to play for in this match up and lay the short number.

ASA play on: LA Clippers -4.5 over Indiana Pacers, 10:30PM ET – We’re not being stubborn here, we’re betting numbers and value, and the best value on the board today is the Clippers. Yes, we’ve lost with them twice in a row, but they had both games covered until very late in the game before the Bulls and Nets got back door covers. The Clippers are playing great right now and look like a tough out in the Western Conference playoffs this year. They have won 10 of their last 13 games, including 6-1 L7. In their last five games, which includes a loss, they have an average point differential of +4.4PPG. Those ten wins in this current run for the Clippers have come by an average of 12.1PPG and ALL but one of those victories were by more than tonight’s spread. The Pacers are in a tough spot here coming off a close loss in Portland last night, playing their 3rd in four nights (which includes a game in the higher altitude of Denver) and 4th game in six days. Their last three games have come against the much tougher Western Conference too. Both teams are fighting for a better seeding spot in their Conference, but the Clippers have been at home, are rested and should be focused off two straight close wins. The Pacers 22nd ranked road defensive efficiency unit catches up to them here against a Clippers offense that ranks 1st in efficiency their last five games.

ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON Calgary over Columbus, Sunday at 9:05 PM ET

The Flames are offering great value on home ice. Calgary enters this game having won 12 of their last 15 games on home ice. While the Flames have been particularly hot on home ice, the Blue Jackets have lost 3 straight on enemy ice. Perhaps even more concerning about all the losing away from home is the fact that Columbus totaled only 1 goal in those 3 road games! Going further back, the Jackets have scored a total of only 8 goals in their last 6 road games. Columbus has lost 14 of its last 26 games overall and is feeling the pressure of possibly missing the post-season. Conversely, Calgary is currently in the top spot in the Pacific Division and actually got some help when Vegas won at San Jose last night. The Flames are coming off a loss at Winnipeg but entered that game having won 10 of its last 14 games. Calgary has won 23 of 36 (including 8 of 12 this season) when playing with 2 days of rest between games. The Blue Jackets have lost 8 of their last 12 games against teams that are currently in playoff position and the Flames are one of the top teams in the league. Bet CALGARY

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Hofstra +9.5 over NC State - Tuesday at 7 PM ET on ESPN2

You have to wonder what NC State’s motivation level will be here?  They were expecting to get into the Big Dance and their Athletic Director was complaining after the snub.  Keep in mind they were in the NCAA tourney last year so it will be tough for the returning players to get overly excited about the NIT.  We’re guessing the mindset of the Wolfpack players tonight won’t be great.  There is more to it than that however.  This is a dangerous match up for NC State.  Hofstra is a very good team that finished the season 27-7 and at one point during the season won 16 consecutive games.  They are a veteran team with all upperclassmen in the starting line up that is excited to be playing a Power 5 team in the opening round.  Hofstra is a very good offensive team scoring 83 PPG which makes it very tough to blow this team out.  Only 2 of their 7 losses came by more than 10 points and their worst loss of the year was a 14 point setback.  They shoot the ball very well ranking 17th in adjusted offensive efficiency, 10th in eFG% and 12th in 3-point FG%.  They get to the line a lot with over 21% of their points coming from the charity stripe and when they do they hit 80% as a team (2nd best in the nation).  Hofstra also protects the ball very well turning it over only 14% of the time which is the 4th fewest in the country.  That’s a bad mix for an NC State defense that pressures the ball, thrives on turnovers, and fouls a lot.  The Wolpack weren’t a great home team this year losing 4 games while Hofstra is comfortable on the road where they were 12-6 this year (away & neutral).  This game is being played at Reynolds Coliseum which is actually not the normal home court for NC State but home to the women’s basketball program.  The men only played one game here this year and that was way back on Dec 5th.  We like Hofstra to give NC State all they can handle tonight and easily cover this spread.

ASA play UNDER 221 Denver Nuggets vs Boston Celtics, 7:30PM ET – With money and tickets coming in on the Over here, yet the line fluctuated down, we will bet Under here. The line was set higher than it should have been from the opener as the Celtics have played five straight higher scoring games. But those five games have come against the Hawks, Kings (twice), Lakers and Clippers who are all ranked top 10 in pace. The tempo tonight is going to be much slower as the Nuggets are the 5th slowest paced team in the NBA at 97.9 possessions per game. In their last five games the Nugs are playing even slower yet at just 94.5 possessions per game. Both teams are top ten in offensive efficiency but also top 11 in defensive efficiency. Prior to their most recent two home games against the fast-paced Kings and Hawks (1st and 2nd) the Celtics had played three straight Unders at home against Houston, Washington and Portland. Houston and Portland have some similar characteristics as Denver tonight. These two teams average fewer total points per game overall on the season, Denver averages 217 total points per game on the road while Boston averages 222 at home.  The Nuggets have stayed under in 6 straight road games against the good teams in the league with a winning percentage of .600 or better. When these same two teams met in early November the total was set at 209.5 so you can see for yourself the value with tonight’s number. BET UNDER!

ASA play on: LA Clippers -6 over Brooklyn Nets 9PM ET – We were counting the Clippers as a “winner” in their last game against the Bulls, as they were up 15-points late, but then let the backdoor cover happen. Count that as a lesson learned which won’t happen here against the Nets, especially with the smaller number. Prior to their two most recent games, the Clippers had won 5 games in a row by an average of 14PPG, and they’ve hit 6 of their last seven, all by a margin of more than today’s spread. The Clippers are 16th in home point differential at +3.4PPG, the 10th most efficient home offense but 23rd in home defensive efficiency ratings. LA has been good their past five games as they rank 7th in the league in average point differential (even with a loss in the mix) at +5.4PPG. They also have the best offensive efficiency numbers in that same 5-game span as they average 1.184 points per possession. The Nets are in a touch scheduling situation here as they played last night in Utah and will be playing their 3rd straight road game against a playoff team from the West. Brooklyn was a +7.5-point dog in OKC, plus 9 in Utah and those two teams are within two games of the Clippers in the West. The Nets lost both games by 12 and 16 points. Brooklyn is pretty much entrenched in the 6th – 8th seed in the East so this game isn’t as important to them. The Clippers on the other hand are just 2.5 games out of the 4th seed in the West which would be home court in the first round so they have way more to play for. Brooklyn is just 3-9 SU, 2-10 ATS when playing the second night of a back-to-back this season

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Michigan +1 over Michigan State, Sunday at 3:30 PM ET

MSU took both regular season meetings but we expect the Wolverines to grab a win in the Big Ten Championship game.  These two met just 8 days ago in East Lansing with the winner taking home the Big Ten regular season title.  The Wolverines led by 6 at half but MSU came out with a 25-4 run in the 2nd half to take control.  “We imploded,” said Michigan coach Beilein after the game.  MSU attempted an uncharacteristic 30 FT attempts (just 7 attempts for Michigan) vs a Wolverine defense who fouls less than any team in the Big Ten.  That deficit at the FT line was too much for Michigan to overcome.  Don’t expect Sparty to have that type of an advantage in this one.  In the two meetings this year the Wolverines attempted 23 more combined shots but shot poorly while MSU shot 47% and 50% in their 2 meetings.  We just don’t see the Spartans shooting that well again vs the #1 team in the nation in defensive efficiency as Michigan allows just 86 points per 100 possessions.  MSU point guard Cassius Winston had 2 huge games vs Michigan but he is now banged up with a lingering knee issue and he injured his ankle yesterday so he’s not 100%.  Since losing to the Spartans to close out the season Michigan has rolled up 2 huge wins in this tourney beating Iowa by 21 & Minnesota by 27.  Because of that they were able to spread out their minutes so they should be fresh here.  MSU had two much closer games beating Ohio State by 7 and they Wisconsin by 12, although the Badgers (who shot only 35% and made just 2 of 19 three point attempts) cut the lead to 6 in the 2nd half.  Three of their starters logged 30+ minutes and all 5 played at least 28 minutes.  The Wolverines were hoping to face MSU in the finals and they are extremely motivated here.  We think it will be very tough for the Spartans to beat their in-state rival 3 times in a season.  We like Michigan to win the Big Ten Championship.

ASA play on: #514 Denver Nuggets -7 over Indiana Pacers, 9PM ET – At first glance this line looks high considering the Pacers are a top 4 seed in the East and fighting for their playoff seeding lives. But Denver also has a lot to play for as they sit just one game behind the Warriors for the top overall record in the West. The Nuggets are one of a handful of teams that can win the NBA Championship and as they have 3rd best offensive efficiency numbers in the league and are 12th in DEFF. Their efficiency numbers at home are even better yet and they win on their home court by an average of 11.2PPG which is the second-best number in the league. The Pacers have some solid road efficiency numbers and an average road differential of -.3PPG which is 9th best but that clearly won’t get a cover today in Denver. When we evaluate the spread on this game, we can compare the Pacers last two road games in Philly and Milwaukee where they were +6 and +10 but got blown out in each. Denver is coming off a very close home win over a bad Dallas team which should serve as a wake-up call here. The Nuggets are 15-8 SU against the East this season and against comparable Eastern Conference teams at home they’ve beaten Philly by 16, Toronto by 8 and Boston by 9. They did lose to the Bucks at home, but Milwaukee is on another level. In usual fashion we will play contrarian here and go opposite of the money. BET DENVER MINUS!

ASA play on: UNDER 231 Golden State @ Oklahoma City Thunder, 8:30PM ET – This is clearly the biggest game on the card today and a marquee matchup between two Titans in the Western Conference. The number set by Vegas is significantly higher than what our math model suggests which is not a huge surprise considering the two teams involved. This will be the third time these two teams are meeting this season and the first two clashes had Totals set of 220 and 223. Both games stayed Under those numbers with combined points of 208 and 218. These are two of the top 10 teams in terms of pace of play this season BUT in their last five games both are playing slower than season averages. That change in style has led to 6 straight Unders for Golden State and 8 of their last ten. Oklahoma State is on a 4 game Under run and have stayed below the Total in 8 of their last ten. Golden State has been a defensive juggernaut the past few seasons, but their defensive efficiency has dropped off significantly this season. Even with that dip though, they are 12th in the league in points allowed per game on the road this year. OKC has the 4th best defensive efficiency numbers in the league as they allow just 1.063 points per possession.  The Thunder’s last three home games have finished with 212, 194 and 204 total points being scored. Without scoring machine Kevin Durant in this game for the Warriors we expect to see a scoring dip for the Warriors (scored just 106 in Houston last game). The Under is 5-1 the last six meetings between these two teams on this floor, 17-5 Under the last 22. The bet here is UNDER!

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Western Kentucky -1 over Old Dominion, Saturday at 8:30 PM ET - ASA's Conference USA Tourney Game of the Year

We’ve been on the Hilltoppers a few times this year and follow them very closely.  They are a team that if motivated is very good.  They finished tied for 2nd in CUSA but to give you an idea of how good they can be their wins this year include Wisconsin, St Mary’s (who just beat Gonzaga to win the WCC), Arkansas, and West Virginia.  They have 3 excellent guards to go along with 6’11 Charles Bassey (15 PPG & 10 RPG) in the middle.  Bassey is projected as a potential first round draft pick and their guard Hollingsworth has NBA potential.  This team is easily the most talented in CUSA and now they are motivated.  One more win and they are in the Big Dance. They have cruised to easy wins their first two tourney games including beating Southern Miss yesterday by 11.  USM is the highest rated team in the conference and the Hilltoppers handled them holding the Eagles to 38% shooting and destroying them on the boards (+19).  ODU won the conference but we feel they’ve been overrated all season long.  They struggle on the offensive end (13th in CUSA in eFG%) and they’ve failed to top 70 points in 8 of their last 9 games.  Over their last 5 games the Monarchs are scoring just 57 PPG on 37% shooting.  Unlike WKY, the Monarchs 2 tourney games were both nail biters and games they probably should have lost.  They trailed by 11 points in the 2nd half vs La Tech and came back to win by 1.  ODU’s FIRST lead of the 2nd half came with 4 seconds left in the game!  Then they turned around yesterday and won 61-59 vs UAB in a game they trailed by 9 with just 4:30 remaining!  ODU trailed again with under 10 seconds remaining and won on a bucket (+ foul) with 4 seconds remaining.  Western & Old Dominion met twice this year with ODU winning both.  However both games were @ ODU and the Hilltoppers blew great shots to win in both games.  Their first meeting WKY jumped out to a 21-0 lead but lost by 4.  Their most recent meeting, again on the road for WKY, the Toppers led by 3 with 1:00 remaining and lost by 3.  Because of the way those games played out, Western should be extra motivated here and ODU is primed to get knocked off.  There is a reason the team that finished 2nd in the conference is favored over the team that finished 1st.  Take Western Kentucky.

ASA play on: LA Clippers -8.5 over Chicago Bulls, 10:30PM ET – We successfully played against the Clippers in their last game against the Blazers as they were in a tough scheduling situation. Now with rest, we expect them to return to the form that saw them win 5 games in a row by an average of 14PPG. Included in that five-game winning streak the Clippers beat a similar team to the Bulls, the Knicks, by 21-points when they were favored by 10. The Bulls were officially eliminated from the post season in their last game and it clearly looks like they’ve quit on the season. The Bulls are just 1-5 SU their last six games and the last three losses have come by 8, 23 and 16 points. Their most recent defeat was at home to the Lakers by 16 and the other LA team isn’t nearly as good as this one. Chicago has the 6th worst road point differential in the NBA at minus -7PPG, rank 28th in offensive efficiency on the road and 17th in road defensive efficiency. The Clippers are 16th in home point differential at +3.3PPG, the 10th most efficient home offense but 23rd in home defensive efficiency ratings. LA has been really good their past five games as they rank 2nd in the league in average point differential (even with a loss in the mix) at +8.2PPG. They also have the 2nd best offensive efficiency numbers in that same 5-game span. The Bulls have not covered a came in their last six road contests against a team with a winning percentage greater than .600 and will nothing to play for here, the Bulls get beat by double-digits. Lay the points with the Clippers.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Colorado +3.5 over Washington, Friday at 9 PM ET - Pac 12 Tourney Game of the Year

This line looks like a trap to us.  The team that won the Pac 12 by 3 full games (15-3 record) opened as just a 1.5 point favorite vs a Colorado team that finished tied for 4th?  Not surprisingly the line has moved to -3 as bettors are jumping on Washington based on what we discussed above.  We like Colorado here.  Washington was the most consistent team in the Pac 12 this year no doubt but they are FAR from a very good, finished product type team.  Despite being the best team in the league they are barely ranked inside the top 50 in most power rankings – only about 10 to 15 spots ahead of Colorado in most of those.  The Huskies struggled down the stretch and we think they are very vulnerable right now vs a CU team that has won 10 of their last 12 games.  Over their last 5 games Washington is just 3-2 with their wins coming by 1, 3, and 5 in OT.  Their losses during that stretch came at the hands of California (who finished 8-23 this year – just 3-15 in the Pac 12) and Oregon who won @ UW by 8.  During that 5 games span the Huskies averaged 68 PPG and allowed 68 PPG and 2 of those games came against 2 of the 3 lowest rated teams in the conference (Cal & Stanford).  Colorado over their last 5 is outscoring opponents 74-61 while hitting 47% of their shots and holding opponents to 37% from the field.  The Buffs are a solid defensive team (3rd in Pac 12 in PPG allowed) and they are the best defensive rebounding team in the league.  They are confident and dangerous right now.  Washington won both games vs CU this year but we think Colorado takes them down tonight.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Under 127 Points - Nebraska vs Wisconsin, Friday at 3 PM ET

This is a low number for a total but we don’t expect these two to get there.  Nebraska is playing their 3rd game in 3 days so shooting legs will be an issue.  They are a very thin team with only 6 scholarship players remaining.  The Huskers were already a slow paced team but due to their limited numbers they have gone very slow in this tourney with just 105 and 101 shot attempts (both teams combined) in their first two games in this tourney.  They’ve totaled 128 & 130 in those games and now they face the slowest paced team and the top defense in the Big Ten so we expect lower numbers than the first two games today.  We had a winner on the UNDER yesterday in the Nebraska – Maryland game as they scored 129 but that was very deceiving as the game was on pace to score less than 115 for much of the game.  They combined for 52 points in the final 10:00 minutes and it still only reached 130.  Wisconsin will be playing their first game in this tourney so we look for them to struggle shooting the ball at the United Center.  The Badgers have gone 12 straight games without scoring 70 points in regulation and we don’t expect it here.  The Nebraska defense has held their first 2 opponents in this tourney to 61 points each so we anticipate mid 60’s at best for Wisconsin.  The UW defense has held their Big Ten opponents to just 60 PPG (first in the conference) and we’d be shocked in the Huskers got out of the 50’s in this game.  Wisconsin’s defense has not allowed more than 67 points in ANY of their last 15 games (in regulation) and over half of those opponents (8) did not top 60 points.  In their lone meeting this year @ Nebraska, the oddmakers set the total at 128 which is nearly where we sit here in a much different circumstance.  The Huskers were full strength in that game and it was in at Pinnacle Arena which is much more conducive to shooting well.  Even with that the two combined to score only 113 combined points.  We would lean Wisconsin in this game but with the spread sitting at -8 currently, that could be a bit dangerous in a low scoring game.  We feel the UNDER is the much better way to go here.

ASA play on: Indiana Pacers -1 over Oklahoma City Thunder, 7PM ET – This isn’t a good spot for the Thunder as they are off a game last night and have a HUGE game on deck with the Warriors. OKC was lucky to cover last night as the Nets outplayed them for 85% of the game but didn’t get calls late. The Thunder took a lead with 6-minutes to play which then pushed to double-digits and eventually a cover. The Thunder starters logged big minutes last night and OKC’s depth is a concern playing back to back nights. Both teams are fighting for playoff positioning, but the Pacers situation is a little more desperate as they are just 2-3 SU their past five games. The Pacers have the 3rd best home point differential in the NBA at +8.7PPG which can be attributed to their #1 ranked defensive efficiency unit at home allowing just 1.015 points per possession. You can see for yourself the value in this line as the last time these two teams met in Oklahoma City, the Thunder were favored by 1-point. It looks very easy to take the Thunder on the road here as they are one of the best teams in the West but we’re not about to bet the way Vegas wants us to. Play Indiana at home minus the points.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Penn State -2 over Minnesota, Thursday at 7:00 PM ET

We’ll ride the red hot team here and that is Penn State.  There is a reason the Nittany Lions with a record of 14-17 are favored over a Minnesota team that is 19-12 and fighting for an NCAA bid.  PSU is playing as well as anyone in the Big 10 winning 7 of 10 down the stretch after starting the conference season 0-10.  Even when they lost their first 10 conference games they were very competitive for the most part with 7 of those losses coming by 7 points or less or in OT.  They tied for 10th in conference play but they are power rated as the 6th best team in the Big Ten behind only Michigan St, Michigan, Purdue, Wisconsin, and Maryland.  PSU’s only losses since February 1st came @ Ohio State by 4 back when the Buckeyes were actually still playing fairly well, @ Purdue who won the Big 10, and @ Wisconsin by 4.  They’ve been fantastic defensively down the stretch holding their last 5 opponents to just 63 PPG on 38% shooting.  They held all 5 of those opponents to 1.00 point per possession or less which is simply great defense.  That defense will be a problem for a Minnesota offense that is shooting barely 40% of their last 5 games and averaged only 60 PPG in road games this season.  Unlike the surging Lions, Minnesota has lost 7 of their last 10 games down the stretch.  They are currently in the Big Dance in most projections but the Gophs do have some pressure on them to not go out right away in the Big 10 tourney giving the committee a reason to possibly leave them out.  PSU is playing loose and with house money.   These two met once this season in Minnesota when Penn State was in the midst of their 10 game losing streak.  Despite that the Lions almost won on the road losing 65-64 blowing an 11 point second half lead.  PSU is playing much better than they were at that time while Minnesota has dropped a notch.  They have one of the top players in the league with Lamar Stevens  (20 PPG) who is very tough to guard inside the paint.  He should eat up a Minnesota defense that ranks 12th in the Big Ten at defending inside the arc allowing 50% shooting by opponents.  Penn State gets the win and cover here.

ASA's 10* CBB PLAY ON Under 135 Points - Nebraska vs Maryland, Thursday at 3 PM ET

We were a bit unlucky with our UNDER play in the Big Ten last night as Northwestern vs Illinois landed on 122 on regulation (we had UNDER 135.5) but went over the total in overtime.  The other Big Ten game yesterday (Nebraska vs Rutgers) totaled 129 to both games failed to reach 130 in regulation.  As we stated yesterday, the United Center is a tough venue for shooting, especially when teams have not played here.  The last 2 times Chicago hosted the Big Ten tourney the average points scored were 121 and 133.  Nebraska shot just 40% yesterday vs Rutgers and made only 3 of 15 from beyond the arc.  Today the thin Huskers (just 6 players played 10+ minutes) face a much tougher Maryland defense that is very long inside.  The Huskers will have massive problems scoring inside due to the Terps length which means they’ll have to make 3’s which is tough in this venue.  On top of that the Huskers aren’t a good 3 point shooting team in general hitting just 32% in Big Ten play this year (9th in the conference).  NU benefitted yesterday from going to the line 32 times and making 23 which won’t happen today.  Maryland will slow this game down (13th in the Big Ten in tempo) and we anticipate they’ll struggle shooting in their first game at the UC.  The Terps aren’t a high scoring team to begin with and playing here won’t change that.  Where this total is set the oddsmakers are expecting a 70-65 type game.  Here’s the problem, Maryland has scored more than 70 points only ONCE in their last 12 games.  This is the third time these two have faced each other this year so they are very familiar with each other which will make it tough to score.  In their first meeting they totaled 142 points but combined to shoot 47% overall and 43% from beyond the arc.  In their most recent meeting they totaled just 105 in a 60-45 Maryland win.  This one should be low scoring and we don’t see it getting out of the 120’s.  Take the UNDER.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Virginia Tech -1 over Florida State, Thursday at 3:00 PM ET

Tech won easily yesterday beating Miami by a final score of 71-56.  They jumped out to a 23-8 lead midway through the first half and never trailed in the game.  Because of that, they didn’t have to expend any extra energy and were able to get used to the surroundings and shooting back drop at the Spectrum Center in Charlotte.   We think that gives the Hokies an advantage over FSU in this game.  The Noles won 12 of their last 13 games, finished 4th in the ACC one game ahead of Va Tech, are ranked higher in the polls than the Hokies, yet they are underdogs in this game?  There is a reason for that.  FSU played the easiest conference schedule in the ACC this year facing UNC, Duke, and UVA each only once (lost all 3).  Over their final 5 games, FSU was 4-1 but was not overly impressive.  They were blasted by 18 @ UNC, came from 10 down at home to beat Notre Dame (3-15 ACC record) by 7, held on at home to beat NC State by 5, and came from 7 down at half @ Wake (lowest rated team in the ACC) to win by 8.  Their other game during that stretch comes into play here.  That’s because it was a home game for FSU vs this Va Tech team.  The Hokies led by 14 at half and blew the lead losing in OT.  That gives VT some extra motivation here as they were hoping to get this rematch.  The Hokies are one of the top shooting teams in the ACC (2nd in eFG% and 3rd in 3-point %) and they are facing an FSU team that defends the paint well but struggles to defend beyond the arc (12th in the ACC allowing 35% from deep).  VT should also get their fair share of points at the charity stripe as FSU fouls a lot (14th in FGA/FTA) and Tech hits over 78% from the line as a team.  We think both of those things play a huge role here as we expect Va Tech to shoot well again on Wednesday and gets the revenge win.

ASA play on: UNDER 230 Golden State Warriors @ Houston Rockets, 9:30PM ET – We hope these same two teams meet in the Playoffs as it will be a fantastic series. In one of our more recent picks we talked about betting Houston right now to win the NBA Finals. The lessons learned from last season will have them ready and they’re as dynamic as any team in the NBA. Bet that Future wager before you lose all value. On to tonight’s bet. We don’t see these two teams reaching this O/U number tonight. The Rockets are one of the slowest paced teams in the NBA this season, the slowest in the NBA the past 5 games at just 95.2 possessions per game. Golden State is not as fast as most think ranking 10th overall in the league. In the most recent meeting these two teams combined to score exactly 230 total points in Golden State. When they last played in Houston though they totaled just 193 total points. Tonight’s game is going to have a playoff feel to it and last year in their 7 game playoff series these two teams AVERAGED 206PPG. Without Kevin Durant in the lineup the Warriors aren’t going to be their fluid offensive selves. Bet UNDER!

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Under 136 points - Northwestern vs Illinois, Wednesday at 9:00 PM ET

These two in-state rivals just met on March 2nd with Illinois winning 81-76.  The total in that game was set at 136 and it went over by 21 points.  Despite that result from just 11 days ago, the oddsmakers again opened the total at 136 and it has dropped at some spots.  Hmmm.  We agree with the move and like the UNDER in this one.  In their game 11 days ago the teams combined to attempt only 112 shots which isn’t a crazy high amount.  The problem is, they MADE 50 free throws in the game.  Not attempted, but made.  That’s a ridiculously high amount and was nearly one third of the points scored in the game.  To give you an idea of how high that is, Iowa leads college basketball averaging 18 made FT’s per game.  So even if you have 2 Iowa’s play and make their average that’s only 36.  That puts that number in perspective.  Needless to say we don’t expect them to come anywhere near that number tonight.  Northwestern is the worst offensive team in the league.  They average just 60 PPG in conference play.  They have been held below 60 points in 8 of their last 12 games.  They may also be without one of their top offensive players as Vic Law (15 PPG) and even if he does play we can’t imagine he’ll be 100% after a pretty serious looking shin injury last Saturday.  Illinois will want to play this game at a fast pace but NW knows they can’t win this game if that’s how it plays out.  The Cats will want to slow this tempo down and usually if a team wants to play slow they get the pace they want.  If Illinois doesn’t get the pace they want, they aren’t great in the half court.  They shoot just 43% in league play and against the 4 slowest paced teams in the Big 10 (Wisconsin, Maryland, Purdue, & Michigan) the Illini got to 70 points just once in five games.  Northwestern is very solid defensively (19th nationally in defensive efficiency) and while the Illini can struggle on that end of the court, we don’t think the Cats are potent enough offensively to take advantage of it.  The United Center in Chicago has always been a tough shooting venue for college teams.  It’s a huge arena and the back drop makes it tough.  The last two Big 10 tourneys played here were in 2013 and 2015 and the average points scored in those tournaments was 121 and 133 respectively.  We like the UNDER in this one.

ASA play on: Brooklyn Nets +7 over Oklahoma City Thunder, 7PM ET – The public money has flowed in on the Thunder yet the oddsmakers are reluctant to move this line any higher than it is. That tells us they over-compensated on the Thunder from the get-go. Brooklyn has earned their spot in the East with a great second half of the season surge with a 27-15 SU streak since early January. Most recently the Nets have won 4 straight games overall and 3 of their last four on the road. OKC has hit a hiccup here in the final stretch of the regular season which has seen them go 4-6 SU their last ten games. Granted, the injury to Paul George certainly didn’t help. But the Thunder haven’t been their usual self at home with a 2-2 SU record their last four games but the two wins came by a combined 5-points. The Thunder home differential is +6.5PPG which is 9th best in the league. Brooklyn is around ‘average’ or 16th in the NBA with a road differential of -2.7PPG. The Nets differentials in their past five games are outstanding as they are +9.2PPG, have shot over 45% as a team and held foes to under 38% shooting which is fantastic. OKC has struggled shooting it of late as they’ve hit just 42.3% in their last five games. The Nets have covered 5 of the last six here and will grab the cash as a dog in this setting.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Rutgers +1.5 over Nebraska, Wednesday at 6:30 PM ET

These two teams were heading in opposite directions over the last half of the Big Ten season.  Rutgers has improved throughout the season and they’ve become a very dangerous opponents.  After starting just 1-6 in Big 10 play, the Knights went 6-7 down the stretch.  A few of those losses as well were close to being wins (lost by 2 in miracle shot at buzzer vs Iowa, lost by 1 to red hot PSU team, lost in OT vs Illinois).  The Huskers, on the other hand, started the Big 10 season with a 3-3 record and then went downhill fast from there.  They were just 3-11 over their last 14 games and 2 of those 3 wins came by 1 point and 2 points.  Their most recent win at home last Sunday was a bit of a miracle as they trailed a plummeting Iowa team (Hawkeyes had lost 3 straight games by 20, 20, and 16 points) by 8 points with 45 seconds remaining.  Nebraska then proceeded to make 3 three pointers in the final 40 seconds to push the game to OT where they won by 2.  Fortunate to say the least at home vs a team that was playing terrible basketball coming in.  The Husker defense has been abysmal this year ranking 14th in defensive efficiency (conference games), 14th in 3-point defense, and they’ve allowed at least 90 points in 3 of their last 5 games. Their offense hasn’t been much better averaging just 63 PPG since they lost starter Isaiah Copeland for the season 11 games ago.  Despite their win last Sunday, they looked to us down the stretch like a team that was ready for the season to be over.  Their head coach Tim Miles is most likely gone at the end of the season and the vibe around the program is negative right now.  Rutgers is the exact opposite.  The team is improving and their head coach Steve Pikiell has this team at 7 conference wins after they ended with only 3 each of the last 2 years.  Their lone meeting this year was a Rutgers win (76-69 final score) and that was when Nebraska still had Copeland in the line up.  We think Rutgers should be favored here and we like the Knights to win this game.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Boise State -3 over Colorado State, Wednesday at 2:00 PM ET

Love this spot for Boise.  They are in revenge mode here after throwing up a stinker at home vs CSU at the end of February.  The Broncos lost that game 76-62 which was their worst home loss of the season.  We considered CSU in that game but didn’t pull the trigger as Boise was in a terrible spot and we could see a flat performance coming for that game.  That’s because the Broncos were off a brutal 3 game stretch in which they played 3 of the top 4 teams in the MWC (Utah St, Fresno St, and San Diego State) all to the wire and lost all 3.  Watching their game vs CSU we could see the Broncos were burnt out both physically and mentally after their grueling stretch in which they had a legitimate shot at 3-0 but ended up 0-3.  The Rams shot almost 60% in that game while Boise shot just 39%.  If you simply look at BSU’s results down the stretch in looks like they were struggling.  That is not the case.  The did lose 6 of their last 7, however 5 of those 6 losses came down to the final seconds of each game.  Their loss margins in those games were 1, 2, 6, 4 in OT, and 7 in OT with four of those setbacks coming on the road.  This team is MUCH better than their 7-11 MWC record.  They are 12-19 on the season yet they’ve outscored their opponents by an average of 71-68!  Despite finishing tied for 7th with 2 other teams, the Broncs power rate as the 5th best team in the MWC behind only Nevada, Utah St, Fresno, and San Diego St.  CSU was in a fantastic spot on Saturday in their home finale facing a UNLV team with absolutely nothing to play for (already locked into a first round game vs San Diego State).  Despite that, the Rams couldn’t get it done at home and lost by 5.  After beating Boise in late February, the Rams went on to lose their final 3 games, 2 coming at home.  One of their top shooters, Anthony Masinton-Bonner (11 PPG), might miss this one as well with an Achilles injury.  Boise has the advantage of just playing at the Thomas & Mack Center in Vegas losing to UNLV by 4.  CSU has not played here since January 3rd.  We like Boise here to pick up a win and cover.

ASA play on: Portland Trailblazers -2 over LA Clippers, 10:30PM ET -  Let’s first address the fact that the Clippers are playing well and clearly haven’t quit since the trading deadline. It’s a testament to Doc Rivers and his staff keeping this team together and playing for each other. But we must fade them in this situation. The Clippers are coming off a blowout win over the Celtics last night and now face a stiff test against the Blazers. Portland has fallen from the 3rd seed in the West to the 5th (no home court in the first round) and have just a 2-game lead on the Clippers. Portland is just a half-game behind the Thunder for 4th in the Western Conference. The Blazers recently had a solid road trip going 6-2 SU with quality wins over playoff bound: Boston, Philadelphia, Brooklyn and Charlotte who is currently 1.5 games out in the East. The Clippers have gotten two good wins at home in their last two games over Boston and OKC but prior to that their three most recent home wins were against the Knicks, Mavs and Suns who have a combined 56-145 SU record. Portland comes into this game with 2 days rest while the Clippers played last night so fatigue becomes a factor here. The Clippers are just 3-5 ATS as a dog in this price range while the Blazers are 7-4 ATS as a small favorite. The Trailblazers are 5-1 ATS the last six meetings and get a much-needed win tonight.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Appalachian State +8 over UL Monroe, Tuesday at 8 PM ET

These two met twice this year with each winning on their home court.  Their most recent meeting was @ UL Monroe in late February a game in which ULM won by 6.  App State dominated the boards (+10) which led to 11 more shot attempts.  However, Monroe shot the lights out hitting 51% overall and a ridiculous 58% from beyond the arc.  Even with Monroe hooting 7% above their season average and almost 20% above their seasonal 3-point average, the game went to the wire.  The largest lead ULM had in the 2nd half was 8-points (which is tonight’s spread) until there was under 1:00 minute remaining and ASU was forced to foul.  The spread then pushed to 10 but App State was able to pull within 6 to close out the game.  We feel Appalachian State is a bit undervalued here.  If you look at their conference record it tells you they are 6-12 on the year.  However, they began the season 0-6 and went 6-6 from that point on.  Of their 12 Sun Belt losses, 8 came by 7 points or less so they were competitive in a majority of their conference setbacks.  The Mountaineers were 2-3 on the road since January 25th with their losses coming by 3 at Texas State (2nd rated team in the Sun Belt), by 10 at UT Arlington (4th rated team on the Sun Belt) and by 6 at Louisiana Monroe.  The Warhawks finished the regular season with a 9-9 conference record but they were just 5-7 over their last 12 games.  Of their 9 Sun Belt wins, only 2 came by more than 10 points and both were vs Arkansas LR who finished tied for last in the league.  ULM is the WORST defensive team in the Sun Belt in both defensive efficiency and defensive eFG% allowed.  Tough to lay this many points with a team like that in a do or die setting where both teams should bring their best.  We see this one playing out very similar to their meeting a few weeks ago and another down to the wire contest.  Take the points. With Appalachian State.

ASA's 10* CBB PLAY ON San Diego +5 over St Mary's, Monday at 11:30 PM ET on ESPN2

This is a very unique situation which we feels favors San Diego.  The Toreros have already played 3 games in the WCC tourney while this will be St Mary’s first.  San Diego blew out Portland, Santa Clara, and a very good BYU team on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday.  Those games were all at the same venue which is the Orleans in Las Vegas.  Thus, not only is San Diego playing very well, they are used to this stadium.  If this was their fourth game in four days, we’d obviously leave this game alone, however they had yesterday off.  Meanwhile, St Mary’s drew a bye into the semi-finals and hasn’t played a game period since March 2nd.  To have 9 days off at this point in the season, potentially ruining your season long rhythm as a team is not a good thing in our opinion.  We expect the Gaels to be a bit off tonight because of the long layoff.  San Diego is one of the most veteran teams in the nation starting 4 seniors and 1 junior.  Their record this year (21-13) is actually a bit deceiving as they had 2 key players miss 9 combined games through the middle of the conference season.  They finished 7th in the league but we view them as a top 4 team in the WCC and so do most power rankings.  This type of team is very dangerous come tourney time as they are better than most think and playing with nothing to lose.  On top of that, their talented seniors know this is their last go around and now they are just 2 wins away from the Big Dance.  Their defense has been absolutely stellar in this tourney holding all 3 opponents to under 0.80 points per possession, including 3rd seeded BYU who they thumped 80-57 on Saturday!  Their 3 wins in the WCC tourney have come by margins of 23, 20, and 17 points.  St Mary’s is solid but down from past year’s in our ratings.  They are beatable especially in this spot.  The Gaels won both games vs San Diego this year however in 1 of those the Toreros were not at full strength.  That should give this red hot, veteran San Diego team extra motivation tonight.  We think they have a solid shot at the upset and getting +5 here is a nice cushion.  Take San Diego. 

ASA play on: UNDER 226 Boston Celtics @ LA Clippers, 10:30PM ET – The betting markets came in with money on the Over here but the oddsmakers adjusted their number down, inviting more Over tickets. We will play contrarian and invest UNDER! The Clippers are 4-1 Under their last five games and those five games came against some of the fastest paced teams in the league. L.A. played OKC, LAL and Sacramento who are top 4 teams in the NBA when it comes to tempo. The Celtics come into this contest with the 18th slowest paced offensive in the league and that’s led to 6 Unders and just 1 Over in their last seven games. In their most recent game against the Lakers, the two teams combined for 227 Total points, but again that was versus a faster Lakers team that doesn’t play defense. The Celtics have the 5th best defensive efficiency rating in the NBA allowing just 1.067 points per possession. Boston has played 4 straight games against either fast paced or higher scoring teams and the highest output was 227. The Clippers have held their last five opponents to an average of 41.4% shooting and 108PPG. With both teams jockeying for playoff position we expect a tighter game than usual. BET UNDER!

ASA play on: UNDER 223 Detroit Pistons @ Brooklyn Nets, 7:30PM ET – The Pistons are the 26th slowest paced team on the season while Brooklyn is 11th fastest. Both teams are 17th or worse in offensive efficiency and both are 14th or better in defensive efficiency. So how do you assume they’ll score more than the league average in total points tonight? We don’t! If we look at how these teams have done recently, we find the Nets have the 7th most efficient defense in their last five games while Detroit is 10th best. The Pistons scoring is up dramatically their last five game but let’s factor in their schedule. They’ve played the Bulls twice; Minnesota and Cleveland and those teams are 27th or worse in defensive efficiency their last five games. The Pistons are on a strong Over run right now at 8-2 their last ten but examine what those numbers were that Vegas set. Seven of those eight Overs had totals of 222 or less, meaning an over-correction on tonight’s game, especially with Detroit coming off a game where they put up 131. Brooklyn is a team that plays fast against fast teams, slow against slower teams. In recent games when the Nets have played similar teams (Heat, Spurs) to the Pistons they’ve totaled 205 and 186 points. When Detroit is playing without rest this season those games have averaged 212.7PPG and that’s about where this one ends up. BET UNDER!

ASA NHL 10* TOP PLAY ON Philadelphia Puck Line (-1.5 goals) over Ottawa, Monday at 7:05 PM ET - The Flyers are -270 favorites on the money line. Of course, we're not going there! However, there is great value with Philadelphia by laying the 1.5 goals on the puck line. That line is a available at even money and there is plenty of solid support for the expectation of this game being a Flyers win by two or more goals. The Senators have lost 10 of their last 11 games. The average margin of defeat for Ottawa in those 10 games was 2.4 goals. The Flyers have won 9 of their last 11 games against teams with a losing record. Each of Philadelphia's last 4 victories have come by a margin of 3 goals. The Sens went into "fire sale" mode at the trade deadline and their recent level of play reflects that. Conversely the Flyers are fighting hard and very much alive in the playoff race. Philly has won 2 of its last 3 meetings with the Senators and both of those victories came by a margin of 2 more goals. Laying the 1.5 goals (and no juice) with Philadelphia is the value play here.

ASA play on: #511 Houston Rockets -9 over Dallas Mavericks, 7PM ET – We’re going to give you some added advice with this bet Sunday and that’s a future bet on the Rockets to win it all this season. Don’t wait to bet it either as you’ll steadily lose value as the season wears on. The Rockets are playing lights out right now with a 7-game winning streak as they climb the standings in the West. The Rockets have been impressive with three straight double-digit wins over three of the best teams in the East. They also have a 6-point win in Golden State in this stretch of games. So even though we are laying a premium price on this game as a 9-point road favorite it’s justified. The Mavs look like they’ve called it a season with four straight losses and just one win in their last ten games. In their last nine losses all but one has come by 10 or more points. The Mavericks have beaten the Rockets twice this season, so they won’t take them for granted here. Houston is 4-1 ATS their last five meetings in Dallas. Lay the point with the Rockets today!

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Under 141 Points - ETSU vs Wofford, Sunday at 4 PM ET

These two met twice this year and both games were grinders for the most part.  The final scores were both very deceiving as they put up 141 points in their first meeting and 154 in the 2nd meeting.  The first game was on pace to go well under the total for the vast majority.  In fact, the two teams had 124 combined points with just 1:40 remaining in the game.  They scored 17 points from that point on to get to 141.  If you divide the game up into 10 minute segments these two scored 33, 29, 33, and 46 points so you can see they went crazy late.  In the second meeting the game was tied at 64-64 in regulation but went to OT where they ended up with 154 points.  The points per possession numbers in that game were very high with both teams averaging more than 1.10 PPP yet they still only reached 128 in regulation.  These are two of the top defensive teams in the SOCON (2nd and 4th in defensive efficiency) and the tempo shouldn’t be overly quick here with Wofford ranking last in tempo in the conference and ETSU ranking 6th.  Both defenses have played better down the stretch than even their overall numbers indicate with Wofford allowing 60 PPG over their last 5 games on 41% shooting by their opponents while ETSU has allowed 67 PPG on 41% shooting during the same span.  With the season on the line for both in this do or die game, we expect the defenses to play as hard as they have all season.  Play the UNDER in this game.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Memphis -8 over Tulsa, Saturday at 9:30 PM ET

We can’t imagine that Senior Night will mean more to any other team in the nation than Memphis.  That’s because the Tigers start 5 seniors who will all be playing their final regular season home game on Saturday night.  The Tigers have locked up the 5 seed in the upcoming AAC tourney and while some may view that as a negative (motivation?) we view it as a positive in this spot.  They already know where they sit for next week’s conference tourney so they can go out and just play with no pressure whatsoever.  They will have plenty of motivation with their seniors leading the way.  The Tigers also out to avenge their worst loss of the conference season, a 96-79 setback @ Tulsa.  We were on Tulsa in that game as it set up perfectly for the Golden Hurricane.  They were at home off 3 straight losses vs the 3 top teams in the AAC (Houston, Cincinnati, and UCF).  They were also catching Memphis going on the road after upsetting UCF by 20 points.  The game played out just as we thought it would with Tulsa winning outright as an underdog.  Memphis is playing very well right now winning 5 of their last 7 with their 2 losses coming in tight games @ UCF and @ Cincinnati (by 2).  They’ve had a full week to get ready for this home finale vs a Tulsa team that has played a very easy schedule down the stretch.  They’ve faced ECU & Tulane, the two worst teams in the conference, both twice since February 14th.  The other two teams they faced during that stretch both turned into double digit losses vs Temple and Wichita State.  Tulsa is just 3-7 on the road this year and they’ve won only twice @ Memphis in the last 16 meetings.  We like Memphis to roll up a big win at home on Saturday.  Lay the points.

ASA 10* play on: #574 Minnesota Timberwolves -7 over Washington Wizards, 8PM ET – Are you asking yourself, why are the T’Wolves favored by 7-points in this matchup? We feel the number isn’t high enough and our computer analytics predict a double-digit win by Minnesota. Despite a disappointing overall season, the Wolves are 21-10 SU at home with a +/- differential at home of +5.4PPG (12th in NBA). They have some solid home wins of late over OKC by 11, Sacramento by 7, Houston by 10, LA Clippers by 10 and a 1-point loss to Denver. The Wolves home/road dichotomies are drastically different which is why they are an attractive bet here. The other part of the equation here is Washington on the road and playing without rest on the road for the second consecutive night. The Wiz are 9-25 SU away from home this season with a +/- differential of MINUS -8.3PPG WHICH IS 4TH WORST in the NBA. The Wolves will put up plenty of points here against a Wizards defense that is 28th in the NBA in road shooting percentage defense against and last in the league in points allowed per game away from home at 119.1PPG. This is also a quick revenge game for the Wolves as they were just beat in Washington by the Wizards 135-121 earlier this month. Washington is just 2-8 ATS the last 10 here and it gets a loss worse after tonight. Lay it with Minnesota.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Kansas -7 over Baylor, Saturday at 2:00 PM ET

Kansas is coming off an embarrassing performance @ Oklahoma earlier this week (we were on the Sooners in that game) and we expect a huge performance in their home finale on Saturday.  We weren’t at all surprised by the 81-68 loss @ Oklahoma as it was a must win for the Sooners in order to potentiall lock in their NCAA bid while KU has simply been a poor road team this year.  However, the Jayhawks have been very good at bouncing back at home after a road loss.  They have lost 6 times on the road this year in games that have been followed up by a home game.  They are 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in those games.  While the Jayhawks have had their problems on the road this year, they have been perfect at home with a 15-0 record.  They are shooting nearly 50% at home while allowing their opponents to make only 38% of their shots.  9 of their 15 home wins have come by double digits. Going back further this KU team has won 83 of their last 87 home games with 65% of those wins coming by at least 10 points.  We’ve felt for most of the season this Baylor team was playing above their heads.  They current sit in 4th place in the Big 12 with a 10-7 record, however the power ratings have the Bears rated as the 7th best team in this 10 team conference.  They have started to come back to the pack as of late which we figured would happen.  They are just 4-5 over their last 9 games and their last 4 games have been unimpressive.  They are coming into this one off a loss @ Kansas State (expected) and a home loss to Oklahoma State, the 2nd worst team in the Big 12.  Prior to that they struggled at home with West Virginia (trailed by 7 in the 2nd half but came back to win vs the worst team in the league) and Texas (won by 1 point in OT).  The Bears aren’t playing very well and they are walking into a hornet’s nest here.  When these two met @ Baylor earlier this season KU was favored by -3.5 and won by 5 despite taking 31 fewer shot attempts!  KU has won 9 of the last 10 in this series and we look for a 10+ point win in their home finale.

ASA play on: #555 Utah Jazz -4.5 over Memphis Grizzlies, 8PM ET – We are going contrarian here, as we like to do, and bet against the hot Grizzlies who have covered 3 straight. In fact, we just bet on Memphis the other night when they covered against Portland but let’s examine that game which has solid indicators for our bet against them here. Portland was wrapping up a brutal stretch of 7 road games and were favored by -5.5 at Memphis. The Blazers led by 16-points in the game but ran out of gas late and Memphis grabbed the upset home win. Now Utah comes into this game, who we rank higher in our metrics, laying less than Portland was the other night. Plus, Memphis is coming off a satisfying win over Portland and in for a letdown. Memphis 16-17 SU at home on the season with an average differential of plus + .1PPG which is 22nd worse in the NBA. Their home offensive efficiency numbers are awful as they average just 1.051 points per possession – last in the NBA! Utah is 16-16 SU on the road this year but they have the 7th best road differential in the NBA at plus +.7PPG. The Jazz shoot it well on the road this year with the 9th best road field goal percentage at 46.4%. The Jazz have recently beat a hot New Orleans team on the road by 10, won in Denver by 7, lost in OT by 1 at OKC (one of best home courts in NBA) and lost by 7 at Golden State. Now they step WAY down in talent to face a ‘fat’ Grizzlies team. Memphis is 2-3 SU their last five at home with the wins against Portland (tough spot) and the fading Lakers. They lost to Chicago, the Clippers by 6 and San Antonio. Utah wins this game by double digits!

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Under 140.5 Points - Illinois State vs Drake, Friday at 7 PM ET

These two have played twice this year with neither game coming near the posted total.  In their first match up the total was posted at 143 and they combined to score 124 points.  Their more recent game was on February 24th and the oddsmakers dropped that total to 141 and they combined to score just 127.  They weren’t terrible offensively as the two teams combined to shoot 45% over those 2 outings yet they still were very low scoring.  That’s two meetings that went under the total by 33 combined points and it wasn’t as if both teams shot terribly.  Now they’ve dropped this total to 139 but that’s not nearly a big enough adjustment in our opinion.  Unless both surprisingly go off and hit 50%+ we don’t see this getting close to 1140.  These two know each other very well and their third meeting should be no different than their first two meetings.  They are playing at a neutral site in St Louis that has not been conducive to scoring.  Last night the two MVC tourney games here totaled 132 and 125 points.  Only one team out of four in yesterday’s play in games shot better than 40%.  Drake will be playing their first game at this venue and Illinois State shot just 36% here last night vs an Evansville team that ranks 9th in the MVC in defensive efficiency.  Long term the MVC tourney UNDERS have been big time money makers.  Since 2005 the UNDERS in MVC tourney games here in St Louis are 85-44 (66%)!   

ASA play on: #547 Indiana Pacers +10.5 over Milwaukee Bucks, 8PM ET. Well, we hit two more NBA plays last night which adds to our incredible NBA 84% winning streak of 21-4. It just goes to show how dialed in our math model is right now. Tonight, the numbers are crunched, and we like the double-digits with Indiana over Milwaukee. Yes, we are aware of the Bucks average point differential which is best in the NBA at +9.1PPG overall, +12.8PPG at home but this is not a good spot for them. Milwaukee has lost two straight, which hasn’t happened all season, and most bettors will look at this game and say it’s a ‘bounce’ back situation for a good team. But we are contrarian here and see another angle to this game which is fatigue and pressure is starting to get to a young Bucks team. The Bucks have shot under 39% in their last two games and now face a Pacers team that is 5th in the NBA in defensive FG% against at 44.8%. The numbers are starting to catch up to Milwaukee which is evident in their 1-3 ATS run as a home double-digit chalk. Speaking of double-digits, the Pacers haven’t been a dog of 10 or more points this season. Indiana has the 6th best road point differential in the NBA at +.8PPG with a 17-14 SU road record. The Bucks own the best defensive efficiency number in the league, but Indiana is second and more than capable of keeping this game close throughout. Grab the points with the Pacers!

ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON OVER: Minnesota at Tampa Bay,Thursday at 7:35 PM ET

The Lightning are the best team in the NHL and their 12-1 run their last 13 games shows just how dangerous they can be in the offensive zone. Tampa Bay has scored an average of 4.3 goals per game during their 12-1 hot streak. . The Bolts are hosting the Wild early Thursday evening and Minnesota is enjoying a recent resurgence. The Wild are on a 7-game points streak (5-0-2) as they have not lost a game in regulation in any of their last 7 games. Of course that streak is expected to come to an end here at Tampa Bay but certainly not without a fight. Minnesota has scored an average of 3.6 goals per game in their last 5 road games. Going further back, the Wild have scored 3 or more goals in 9 of their last 11 road games. Of course if each team gets to 3 goals here we have ourselves a winner as this total is set at 6 goals and would have to then land on at least 7. Minnesota has been struggling on the penalty kill and has allowed 11 power play goals in their last 11 games. The over is 12-7 this season when the Wild are off a division game. The over is 16-8 this season when the Lightning are off a non-conference game. The last two games between these teams have resulted in an average of 8 goals scored and our computer math model is forecasting the final score in this one to land on 7 or 8 goals. Bet the OVER in Tampa Bay early Thursday evening

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON UCF -2 over Cincinnati, Thursday at 7 PM ET - AAC GAME OF THE YEAR

UCF should be extra motivated here as they’ve won 6 of their last 7 games and their only loss came @ Cincinnati by a final score of 60-55.  The Knights actually led that game 40-32 with 11:00 minutes remaining and the Bearcats made late push for the 5 points win, their largest lead of the 2nd half.  Now back at home with huge momentum coming off a win @ Houston (top rated team in the league) we like UCF to play very well tonight.  The 22-6 Golden Knights are 14-2 this year at home with their lone conference loss here coming vs 1st place Houston which they turned around and beat over the weekend, as we mentioned, in their revenge game.  This team averages 77 PPG at home while holding their opponents to just 65 points on 38% shooting.  Long term they’ve been a great home money maker with a 25-11-1 ATS record over their last 37 games here at CFE Arena.  Cincy is currently tied for first place in the AAC with a 14-2 record.  However they’ve been skating on thin ice in our opinion and they are overdue for a loss which comes tonight.  Seven of their last eight wins have come by 5 points or less.  They are going to the wire in nearly every game and while they have been winning those games, their time runs out tonight.  In their game vs UCF a few weeks ago the Knights hit 9 of their 20 three point attempts for 45%.  That’s been a problem with the Cincy defense.  They are 11th in the AAC (out of 12 teams) at defending the 3-point line.  40% of their opponent’s points in league play come from beyond the arc which is the most in the AAC.  That’s will be a problem tonight as UCF has been shooting the ball very well hitting 40% from 3-point land over their last 7 games.  This is the Knights final home game so emotions should be running high for their 4 seniors in the rotation.  A win here pulls them to within 1-game of Cincinnati in the standings with 1 to go.  We expect a huge effort from UCF and predict a win and cover tonight.

ASA  play on: Denver Nuggets -5.5 over LA Lakers, 10:30PM ET – We’ve said this exact same thing the past two games that we’ve played against the Lakers, but the LeBron charade is pretty much over. He is solely responsible for the Lakers demise this season. He clearly doesn’t have the leadership skills to command the respect of his teammates and it’s always been a matter of time before his teams see through him. I’m not saying he’s not one of the most gifted players in the league as he is. But his ego has gotten the best of him and it’s infected the rest of the team, coaching staff and organization. And now that he’s quit playing hard for the season this team is obviously done. It’s been easy money betting against Los Angeles, so we’ll do it again. According to our rankings we have Denver as a top 5 team in the league with an offensive efficiency rating that is 3rd best in the league, a defensive efficiency that is 11th. Even on the road they have solid efficiency numbers ranking in the top half of the league in both OEFF and DEFF despite a .500 overall road record. The Nuggets have the 7th best point differential in the league right now in their past five games at +4.4PPG. The Lakers are in a free-fall with a 10-20 SU record their last 30 games, 1-5 their last six. Since the return of LeBron from injury the Lakers defense has been one of the worst in the league. In their last five games the Lakers are allowing 1.143 points per possession which is 22nd in the NBA and have a negative differential of minus -5PPG. Denver comes into this game having lost three straight and will play at a peak level against the high-profile Lakers. Denver by a dozen or more!

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON New Mexico -1.5 over Boise State, Wednesday at 9:00 PM ET

We were on New Mexico at home on Saturday as they rolled over Colorado State 77-65.  We’re right back on the Lobos at home here.  We know the Lobos have been patiently waiting for this game after what happened in this match up last year.  New Mexico lost that game at home 73-71 and blew a 13 point lead with just 8:00 minutes remaining in the process.  Boise took their first lead of the entire second half with just 16 seconds remaining in the game.  The game ended with a near melee as players from both teams were pushing, shoving, and shouting at each other.  The Lobos were clearly upset with the way they blew that game and now they get their shot at revenge.  They are playing a Boise team that is clearly in a free fall.  The Broncos have now lost 7 of their last 8 games with their lone win coming vs San Jose State, one of the worst teams in the nation (342nd nationally out of 351).  On top of their struggles, this is a very tough spot for Boise.  They played @ UNLV on Saturday which was a revenge game for the Broncos as they lost at home earlier this year to the Rebs.  Boise blew an 11 point 2nd half lead in that game on Saturday with UNLV taking their first lead with 1:13 remaining in the game which ended up in OT where the Rebels won 85-81.  That was a very tough loss for Boise and now they are on the road just again just a few days later in a very tough spot to play.  New Mexico is playing their final home game and these two teams are tied at 6-10 in MWC play.  They are one of the tallest teams in the nation (14th in average height) and their head coach Paul Weir has really been focusing on dominating the boards as of late.  The Lobos have done just that as they are +43 on the boards over their last 5 games.  They should do some damage there again on Wednesday against a Bronco team that is -33 on the boards over their last 5 games.  That should lead to extra opportunities and simply wear down a BSU team that looks physically and mentally tired.  We like New Mexico to win their home finale.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON UTSA +6 over Western Kentucky, Wednesday at 7:30 PM ET

These two met one time this season and we remember it well.  We were on Western KY at home favored by 6.  We watched the entire game very closely and to be honest we really had very little chance to win.  UTSA led for much of the 2nd half and in fact Western’s biggest lead of the 2nd half was 2 points.  The Hilltoppers largest lead in regulation was just 7 points and that was because they began the game on a 7-0 run.  After that, they trailed for most of the game.  WKY came from behind in the final minute, were able to push the game to OT where the won 96-88 covering by 2 points.  The Toppers won by just 8 in OT despite being +12 makes at the FT line.  We admittedly picked up a lucky win but now we flip the script and apply what we learned in that game and we side with UTSA here.  Obviously the Roadrunners will be very motivated here and they know they can play toe to toe with WKY on the road.  Western is solid but they simply do not blow teams out.  They have 11 CUSA wins and only 2 of those came by double digits and those wins were against UTEP and Charlotte, the two lowest rated teams in the conference.  Their average score in CUSA play is 72-70.  On the flip side, UTSA is 10-6 in league play and none of their losses have come by more than 10 points.  They can put points on the board (78 PPG in CUSA play) and they are #1 in the conference in offensive efficiency.   The Roadrunners have 2 of the best guards in the conference which can carry them a long way in the post-season.  Jackson leads the league at 23 PPG and his backcourt mate Wallace averages 21 PPG.  In their only meeting this year those 2 put up 72 points vs WKY.  A win here puts UTSA into 3rd place in the conference a half game above Western KY.  We think this one goes to the wire just as the first meeting did and we like the points this time around.

ASA play on: #532 Detroit Pistons -5 over Minnesota Timberwolves, 7PM ET – We like the situation here to bet the home team Pistons for several reasons.  Minnesota is coming off a high-profile game last night against a division rival the OKC Thunder and are also playing their 3rd game in four nights. This will also be the Wolves 4th road game in their last five, 6th in their last eight. The Wolves are just 2-7 SU when playing without rest with a negative differential of nearly 4PPG. The Wolves are all but officially eliminated from the post season as they are 6-games back with 19 to play.  Detroit on the other hand is rested, playing well and fighting for the 6th seed in the East. The 6th spot is critically important to the Pistons as that would mean a potential first round matchup with the Pacers (if the season ended today). Detroit is 8-2 SU their last ten games and have won 5 straight at home by an average of 12.2PPG. Included in those five W’s are victories over the Raptors, Pacers and Nuggets. Detroit is looking at three very winnable games in a row but need to get this win tonight first. The Wolves have the 10th worst road differential in the NBA at minus -5.1PPG and a big reason why is their road defense which is 27th in defensive efficiency ratings allowing 1.161 points per possession. The Pistons have covered 7 in a row against the T’Wolves, make it 8!

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Georgia -3.5 over Missouri, Wednesday at 6:30 PM ET

Georgia is just 2-14 in the SEC yet favored here by a full 3 points?  We agree with the number.  Head coach Tom Crean has been very pleased with the way his team has been playing and we can see why.  Over their last 5 games, the Bulldogs are just 1-4 but easily playing their best basketball of the season.  They are coming off a 61-55 road win @ Florida which will give them loads of confidence coming home.  The 4 games before that win they lost to LSU by 4, lost to Mississippi State by 1, lost at Ole Miss by 1, and then lost to Auburn by 3.  Those are 4 down to the wire games against some of the top teams in the conference.  Over that 5 game stretch, vs 5 teams that are all above .500 in conference play and have a combined record of 50-30, the Bulldogs shot 49% while holding their opponents to 46%.  They were also plus on the boards during that stretch.  Now they face a Mizzou team that is a big step down for their last 5 opponents.  The Tigers are 4-12 in the SEC and just 1-8 SU away from home this season.  They are shooting just 41% away from home and their average road loss has come by 10 points.  The Tigers are 13th in the conference in offensive efficiency and dead last in turnover rate coughing it up over 22% of the time.  They also very rarely get to the FT line ranking last in the SEC in FTA/FGA ratio.  Those numbers explain why they are so poor on the road.  That continues here and UGA gets the home win and cover.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Oklahoma +2 over Kansas, Tuesday at 9:00 PM ET - on ESPN2

We’ll play the Sooners tonight as a home dog on Senior Night.  This is a huge game for OU as they are 18-11 overall and have played a very tough schedule (10th ranked SOS nationally) but their current 6-10 Big 12 record may cause them problems come selection Sunday.  A win here would most likely solidify a berth in the Big Dance.  “Tomorrow’s huge,” Senior Christian James said after practice Monday. “It could make us or break us for getting in the tournament. We’re gonna go out here and fight, man.”  OU actually has 5 seniors who play significant roles so tonight you can bet they’ll play as hard as they have all season.  Lose this game and the Sooners could be in trouble as they travel to KSU this weekend and face a Wildcat team that will be playing for the Big 12 conference title.  Kansas is off a come from behind 5-point win @ Oklahoma State on Saturday.  The game was tied with under 2:00 minutes to go and that was against a Cowboy team that is rated 106th nationally (2nd worst in the Big 12) and has a 3-13 conference record.  That has been the theme for this young KU team this year.  They really can’t be trusted on the road.  They are just 3-7 in true road games this year and none of their 3 wins have come by more than 5 points.  Off that tough road game on Saturday we’d expect the Jayhawks, who start 4 freshmen, to struggle here.  These two met in January in Lawrence KS and Oklahoma played KU well losing 70-63.  The stats in that game were almost dead even and OU was within 4 points with under 1:00 minute to go.  Two key players and two of their only veterans, Lagerald Vick & Udoka Azubuike, combined to score 20 points and grab 13 rebounds in that game.  Those two are no longer on the court for KU with Azubuike injured and Vick left the team.  OU should have plenty of confidence after taking Kansas to the wire earlier this year and beating them here at home last season.  This is a tough spot for Kansas and the game of the year, so to speak, for a veteran Sooner team.  We’ll take the home dog.

ASA play on: Memphis Grizzlies +6 over Portland Trailblazers, 8PM ET – If you’ve followed us for any length of time you know how much we like to be on the ‘uglies’ or contrarian Sides in the NBA. A general rule of thumb we’ve lived by for the past 30 years is to not be on the team Vegas wants you to bet. The Blazers look way too good to be true in this match-up, so we’ll take the ugly Grizzlies at home plus the points. Memphis has a defensive minded backcourt with Avery Bradley and Mike Conley that can defend or neutralize the Blazers strength, Lillard and McCollum. Granted, the Grizzlies had a different roster at the time but two months ago when these two teams met in Portland the Blazers were essentially favored by the same number as today’s game. I could argue the Grizzlies are a better team after the trade for Bradley and Valanciunas. Portland is fighting for a top 4 placement in the West and have a much bigger game on deck with Oklahoma City AND this will be their 7th straight road game so how focused are they? The Blazers have a losing road record this season and a negative differential of -1.7PPG which is 13th in the league. Memphis has a losing home record on the season, but their average differential is minus -.2PPG which clearly gets us a cover here.  Despite a disappointing season the Grizzlies still have the 6th best defensive efficiency rating in the NBA and they can keep this game close throughout. The obvious bet here is Portland…SO TAKE MEMPHIS!

ASA play on: LA CLIPPERS +4 over LA Lakers, 10:30PM ET – I wouldn’t bet the Lakers with someone else’s money right now. Since LeBron tried to orchestrate the trade for Anthony Davis the team has gone in the tank. The drama that follows LeBron everywhere he goes is a HUGE distraction and he’s just not a player that others want to follow. A lot of talk, but he doesn’t back it up. His playoff intensity has been embarrassing on the defensive end of the floor and he hasn’t inspired the younger players to another level.  In their last five games the Lakers have a negative differential of -6.6PPG, have allowed an average of 121PPG on 48.7% shooting by foes. Four of those last five games have come against non-playoff teams New Orleans twice, Phoenix and Memphis. The Clippers on the other hand made a big move at the trade deadline but have not given up on the season. The Clips have a positive differential their last five games of +.8PPG and three of those five games were on the road against playoff caliber teams in Sacramento, Utah and Denver. The Clippers have covered 4 straight in the series and they’re clearly the team that is still playing hard. Grab the points with the Clippers.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Maryland +1 over Michigan, Sunday at 3:45 PM ET - Big Ten Game of the Week

We love this situation for Maryland.  The Terps are coming off a blowout loss @ Penn State on Wednesday.  That wasn’t a huge surprise (we used PSU as a pick) as the young Terps had struggled at times on the road this year and they were clearly looking ahead to this huge home game.  On top of that, Penn State is playing very well right now as they found their groove winning 5 of 7 after their win over Maryland.  Now they are at home facing a Michigan team that just played their home finale on Thursday night crushing a faltering Nebraska team 82-53.  Now the Wolverines must travel a few days later and Michigan hasn’t been great on the road as of late going just 3-3 their last 6 away from home.  Maryland, on the other hand, is undefeated in Big 10 play at home beating the likes of 1st place Purdue (by 14) and Wisconsin just to name a few.  These two met just a few weeks ago (Feb 16) in Ann Arbor and Michigan pulled out a 65-52 win.  The Terps shot just 36% in the game and only 27% from deep.  They also went to the FT line just 8 times in the game.  One thing they did do is dominate the boards (+7) including 10 offensive rebounds and we expect them to duplicate that at home.  Maryland ranks #1 in the Big Ten with a rebounding margin of +7.3 while Michigan ranks 10th at -1.3 RPG.  Much is made of the Michigan defense which obviously is very good, however many don’t realize that Maryland defense is every bit as good.  The Terps allow opponent so shoot just 38% in Big 10 play which ranks only behind Michigan State in the league (Michigan allows 40%).  We look for the Terps to play MUCH better on offense in this rematch as they are much more comfortable at home averaging 77 PPG and shooting 48%.  The Wolverines, on the other hand, average only 67 PPG on the road.  They will also most likely be without one of their top players, Charles Matthews (13 PPG), who injured his ankle last weekend in their home loss to Michigan State.  We couldn’t ask for a better set up to this game and Maryland gets the win at home.

ASA play on: UNDER 225.5 Houston Rockets @ Boston Celtics, 3:30PM ET – This numbers opened slightly higher than it is right now and immediately the public bettors played Over while the Sharps bet Under. Surprisingly, the Rockets are the 3rd slowest paced team in the NBA at 97.9 possessions per game. Boston is the 13th slowest paced team at 99.3 possessions per game. That’s a great start for and Under bet with a Total that is higher than the league average of 222. The Rockets are 2nd in offensive efficiency this season while Boston is 10th but their scoring averages are 11th (Rockets) and 15th (Boston). The Celtics are 4th in scoring defense allowing just 106.6 points per game. Houston is 15th allowing just 111.2PPG. The Celtics are clearly gearing up for the post season and are deliberately playing slower and more conservative. In their last five games the Celts and opponents have averaged just 207PPG. Houston prefers to play lower and slower away from home as their road games have averaged 220 total points per contest. Boston will dictate the pace here and when they do that it leads to an Under. The Celtics are Under in 17 of their last twenty-two games against teams with a winning record. The line is inflated, and the value is on the Under.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON New Mexico -2.5 over Colorado State, Saturday at 10 PM ET

This is a great spot for New Mexico.  They come into this one off an embarrassing road loss to San Jose State, the worst team in the Mountain West.  The Lobos took 82 shots in the game (18 more than SJSU) but shot poorly especially from 3 point land making only 8 of 34.  San Jose State, on the other hand, made 50% of their 3-point attempts which is way up from their season average in conference play of just 31%.  Now back at home where they’ve played well, we look for New Mexico to play with an inspired effort.  The Lobos have played the top teams in the MWC very tough at home beating Nevada (the top team in the league with a 13-2 record), beating San Diego State (10-5 in the conference), and lost to Utah State by 2 (13-3 in the conference).  Colorado State comes in overvalued right now off 3 straight wins.  Even with those wins, the Rams are still only 7-8 in conference play.  Their first two wins came over San Jose State & Wyoming, the two lowest rated teams in the conference who have a combined record of 3-27!  Their most recent win came @ Boise State who is now heading in the wrong direction and the Broncos were in a terrible spot off blowing a lead in a huge home game vs Utah State and losing in OT.  We’re not going to overreact to that stretch by CSU.  They are still just 3-7 away from home this season.  The value is clearly on New Mexico here as they Lobos were actually favored by 2 points @ Colorado State in December and now they are laying less than that at home!  New Mexico lost that game with CSU shooting 56% from the field and the Rams were +8 in FT’s made.  Now on the road for the 2nd time this week and a huge home game vs Utah State on deck for the Rams, we feel this is a bad spot for a pretty average team.  With the line where it is, we’re simply asking New Mexico to win at home which they’ve done vs much better teams this season.  Lay it with the Lobos

ASA play on: #570 Utah Jazz -3.5 over Milwaukee Bucks, 9PM ET – Look at this number and tell me what your first instinct is. The Bucks as an underdog? Take the points! NOT US, we’re going contrarian here and taking the team Vegas doesn’t want us to bet, Utah! The Bucks have been red hot with a 20-2 SU streak but this is not a good spot as they are coming off a big showcase win over the Lakers last night and will letdown here. Milwaukee used a 15-2 run to close the game last night (thankfully as we had the Bucks) and expended a ton of energy to get that W. As impressive as the Bucks run has been the Jazz have been nearly as good. Utah is 17-6 SU their last 23 games and are coming off a big win a few nights back over Denver. We’re comfortable with the spread on this game as the Jazz have been favored at home by similar numbers over the better teams in the West. The Jazz are 21-6 SU the last 27 clashes with the Bucks and have COVERED 15 of the last sixteen meetings in Utah. The Jazz have the 9th best home point differential in the NBA at +6.7PPG and that comes against a tougher schedule in the West. We’ll finish with this. Why are the Bucks, who have the best record in the NBA, this big of an underdog against the 6th seed in the West? Because they’re going to win this game by 8 or more!

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Rutgers +9 over Iowa, Saturday at 5:00 PM ET

We don’t trust Iowa to lay nearly double digits.  We’ve felt this team was overvalued for most of the season and they are showing their true colors down the stretch.  We faded them on Tuesday of this week and they were blasted @ Ohio State by 20 points.  We saw this coming as the Hawkeyes have not been playing very well for a good month now.  This is a tough spot for Iowa as they have a huge revenge game on deck @ Wisconsin and they will be without their head coach Fran McCaffrey who is suspended for the next 2 games due to confronting an official after the OSU loss.  Rutgers is trending upward.  They are now 6-11 in Big Ten play and coming off a nice home win over a Minnesota team that is fighting for an NCAA bid.  That game was last Sunday so they’ve had nearly a week to get ready for this revenge game.  Meanwhile Iowa played last Friday, then on Tuesday, and now again on Saturday.  Rutgers is 2-3 their last 5 games but they are very close to being on a 4-1 run.  They have wins over Minnesota and Northwestern (on the road) during that 5 game stretch.  Their losses have come by 11 @ Michigan State (very competitive game vs the top team in the Big 10), lost in OT @ Illinois, and lost by 2 to this Iowa team in an excruciating ending.  In their game vs Iowa just 2 weeks ago the Knights led by a point with only a few seconds remaining.  Iowa in bounded the length of the court and BANKED IN a corner 3-pointer as time expired for the win.  Rutgers outplayed Iowa for much of the game and we look for them to come into Iowa City knowing they can win this one and play very well.  Over the last 5 the numbers on these teams look very similar with Iowa scoring 72 PPG but allowing 74 PPG while Rutgers is scoring 70 PPG and giving up 72 PPG.  Rutgers is actually shooting a higher % than they are allowing during that stretch while Iowa is allowing a higher % than they are making.  We give Rutgers a shot to come in and pull the upset vs an Iowa team that is just 3-2 their last 5 home games with two of those wins coming by 1 point over Northwestern and in OT vs Indiana.  Take the points.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Tennessee (-2.5) over Kentucky, Saturday at 2:00 PM ET

This is a rematch from just a few weeks ago when UK rolled over Tennessee 86-69 in Lexington.  We know this veteran UT team (all upperclassmen in the starting line up) was embarrassed by that performance on national TV as the Kentucky offense shredded them hitting 55% from the field.  Now they get the young Cats (4 freshmen in the starting line up) at home where the Vols are 16-0 this year with 24 straight wins here dating back to last year.  That includes beating Kentucky here last year by 11 points.  The Cats will be a bit undermanned here as they are without senior PF starter Reid Travis.  He will be missed in this game as he scored 11 points and pulled down 6 rebounds in the first match up in mid February.  Even more importantly, Travis did a great job defensively on Tennessee’s leading scorer Grant Williams limiting him to just 4 FG attempts for the entire game.  In the two games with Travis out, the Wildcats beat Auburn at home and then struggled with Arkansas at home having to come from 15 points down in the 2ndhalf to get pick up a tight win.  This will be their first road game without Travis.  Many of Kentucky’s SEC road games this year have not been easy.  They struggled with a poor Mizzou team in their most recent road game.  Other away from home included a 4-point win @ Mississippi State, a 2-point win @ Auburn, and a loss @ Alabama.  Now they play the best team they’ve played on the road this year and a very motivated one at that.  The Vols have played a grand total of one really poor game this year and that was @ Kentucky.  Their other 2 losses on the season (25-3 record) both came in OT @ LSU and vs Kansas on a neutral court way back in November.  We expect a supreme effort from Tennessee here and we look for them to win and cover at home.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Under 157 Points - Northern Kentucky @ UW Green Bay, Saturday at 1:00 PM ET

UW Green Bay has really transformed from a run & gun high scoring, poor defensive team, into a team that doesn’t score as many points as it did earlier in the year and one that plays MUCH better defense than they had been.  Despite that, the oddsmakers continue to set high totals on this team.  Keep in mind UWGB has now gone UNDER the total in 5 straight games and 6 of their last 7.  Not only have they been going UNDER the total, they have been close with their last 5 games staying under the number by a combined 120 points or 24 points per game!  Each of their last 5 games have stayed under by at least 10 points.  The Phoenix allowed a whopping 88 PPG through their first 9 Horizon League games.  Since then they have given up only 71 PPG over their last 8 games, an improvement of 17 PPG.  Offensively they have scored only 69 PPG over their last 5.  On Saturday they face an NKU defense that ranks 2nd in the league in defensive efficiency and 1st at defending the 3 point line.  NKU is 1st in the Horizon in offensive efficiency, however they might be without their leading scorer Drew McDonald in this one as he sat out Thursday’s game @ Milwaukee with back spasms.  The Norse only scored 65 points in that game and they held the Panthers to just 55 points. With a first round home game in the Horizon and a top 2 seed already locked up, we’d be surprised if McDonald played here.  Even if he does, this total is set too high.  NKU is very similar to Wright State (the top 2 teams in the league) who played @ UWGB on Thursday.  Wright is #1 in defensive efficiency and #2 in offensive efficiency while NKU is #1 in offensive efficiency and #2 in defensive efficiency.  They both play at a similar pace.  Thursday game here ended with a final score of UWGB 70 – Wright State 67.  We see a similar type game here with it staying well UNDER this hefty total. 

ASA play on: Milwaukee Bucks -4.5 over LA Lakers, 10:30PM ET – This is an interesting matchup from our perspective as we just won a wager against the Bucks on Wednesday and also won betting on the Lakers. Tonight, we have a great combination wager with an investment on the Bucks minus the points, and a play against Los Angeles. The Bucks were up 13 at the end of the 3rd and led by as many as 17 at one point over the Kings. Sacramento forced OT but the Bucks held on for the 1-point win. This is a much bigger game with a marquee showdown against LeBron and the Lakers so don’t expect a letup in this one. Milwaukee is 22-9 SU on the road this season with the second-best average point differential in the league at +6.4PPG. The Bucks were just favored by -6.5 points in Sacramento who is better than this Lakers team, yet the line is lower. We weren’t impressed with the Lakers win over the Pelicans the other night. LeBron and his lip service talked about flipping the switch on his playoff intensity and playing with a sense of urgency but he’s not living up to the talk. Sure, he’s put up impressive offensive numbers, but his defense is horrendous and it’s obvious to see he’s lost the team and their confidence. The entire team lacked the urgency LBJ talked about in a revenge game against the Pelicans, at home, off a couple bad losses AND with a limited Anthony Davis’s role. If they don’t show up for that game, they won’t show up here. L.A. has the 22nd worst home point differential in the NBA at plus .8PPG and are just 18-12 SU in the Forum. When it comes to efficiency these two teams aren’t close. The Bucks are 4th in OEFF compared to the Lakers 21st ranking. Defensively the Bucks are 1st in DEFF while the Lakers are 12th and falling. Los Angeles played a very weak schedule prior to the break and we’re finding out just how bad this team is now that the level of competition has gone up. The Bucks by a dozen.

ASA play on: @Sacramento Kings -3 vs LA Clippers, 10PM ET – The Kings have been very good to us this season and continue to be under-valued by the oddsmakers. Sacramento is making a push for a playoff spot and the young talent of Bagley (out tonight), Fox and Hield are starting to pay dividends for their draft status. The Kings are just 1-4 SU their last five games which is why we are getting tremendous value tonight but look at who they’ve played. Sacramento has played arguably 4 of the five best teams in the league in this current stretch. They lost by 4 combined point IN Golden State and Denver, won in OKC and then just lost by 1-point to the Bucks at home the other night in over-time. Now they step way down in talent against a Clippers team that narrowly leads them in the West for the 8th and final playoff spot. The Kings have not had good success against the Clippers in recent years but these are not the same rosters. Sacramento is 100% or perfect 7-0 ATS when favored by -3.5 or less points this season (under-valued by the oddsmakers). The Clippers traded away their leading scorer in Tobias Harris and looked as it they were going to tank the rest of the season for a better draft status but they then won 3 of five games. Looking closer we see those wins came against Phoenix, Memphis and Dallas who are a combined 63-123 SU. Based on the efficiency differentials we calculate the Kings winning by 9 in this contest. Lay it!

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Siena +1.5 over Canisius, Friday at 9 PM ET

Big revenger for Siena here who blew a 10-point 2nd half lead and lost at home to Canisius back in January.  Siena shot just 38% in that game (45% for Canisius) and they were -12 made FT’s yet the game still went to the wire with Canisius winning 70-66.  One of the top players for Canisius, Isaiah Reese, has now been suspended for the last 9 games but was in the line up for the first match up and scored 20 points.  His absence gives Siena a nice advantage here.  Canisius just lost at home to Niagara as a 5.5 point favorite a few nights ago and that dropped their home record to just 4-8 this year.  They have covered just 30% of the time this year as a home favorite (3-7 ATS).  Now we add the fact that Siena is a very good road team with a 5-2 record away from home in MAAC play.  Thus, while this line is adjusted for home court advantage, it really shouldn’t be.  Siena should be favored in this game in our opinion.  They are the MUCH better defensive team ranking #1 in the conference in adjusted defensive efficiency (Canisius is 10th in the league in that category) and they turn the ball over far less (#1 in the MAAC in offensive turnover percentage).  This is the 3rd game in 6 days for Canisius while Siena has been off since Sunday and should be the more rested team.  Siena has been a great underdog this year covering 10 of the 14 times they’ve been getting points.  We like them to win on the road tonight so we’ll take the points with Siena.

ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON St Louis over Carolina, Friday at 7:35 PM ET

The Blues are getting healthier. Though David Perron is still out, Alexander Steen is expected back. Also, it is likely Brayden Schenn returns too as he was at practice Wednesday plus Sammy Blais was returned to San Antonio, the AHL affiliate of the Blues. While St Louis appears to be in better shape heading into tonight's game, plus getting fantastic goaltending from Jordan Binnington and Jake Allen, the Hurricanes are really hurting on their blue line. Carolina recalled defensemen Jake Bean and Haydn Fleury from their AHL affiliate because both Calvin de Hann and Justin Faulk were lost to injuries on Tuesday night. The last thing teams want at this time of year is inexperience on the blue line but that is what the Canes are now dealing with in terms of their depth. Carolina has been hot but St Louis has been even hotter. Combining that factor with the better health and better goaltending of the Blues plus the line value since they are on the road, and you have a strong spot for backing St Louis here. The Blues have only 10 regulation losses on the road this season. No team in the Western Conference has fewer regulation road losses. Adding to the value here is the fact that not only has St Louis won 4 straight in this series, they've also won each of their last 4 visits to Carolina! Those streaks each reach 5-0 tonight per our computer math modeling. Bet ST LOUIS tonight

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Oregon -3 over Arizona State, Thursday at 11 PM ET

This one sets up nicely for the Ducks who are finally back home after 3 consecutive road games – all losses.  Before that road trip Oregon had won 4 of their previous 5 games at home with their only loss coming by 5 points to the best team in the Pac 12 – Washington.  The Ducks have been a bit of a disappointment this year but they are talented and definitely better than their record might indicate.  They sit at just 6-8 in Pac 12 play putting them in 10th place yet in most power ratings, including ours, Oregon ranks as the 3rd of 4th best team in the league.  Now back at home, off 3 losses, and in a revenge spot we anticipate them playing very well tonight.  These two met in January and ASU (-4) with the Sun Devils coming away with the 75-63 win at home.  The Devils scorched the nets in that game hitting 51% of their shots to just 33% for Oregon.  The Ducks controlled the boards with 14 offensive rebounds which led to a number of extra possessions.  Because of that they attempted 63 shots to just 49 for ASU however the hot shooting from the home team and cold shooting from the Ducks led to the double digit win for the host.  The roles could be reversed here as the Sun Devils shoot just 41% on the road this year while Oregon is hitting 48% of their shots at home.  ASU has been up and down all season long beating some very good teams (Kansas, Mississippi State, and Washington) while losing to a number of poor teams (Washington State, Vanderbilt, and Princeton).  After 3 straight wins, including 2 in a row at home before this road trip, we have a feeling that Arizona State will be flat here.  Their recent 2 game home stand they beat Cal (the worst team in the Pac 12) and Stanford (3rd lowest rated team in the conference).   It gets much tougher tonight vs a desperate Oregon team.  The Ducks opened at -1.5 and this line jumped to -3 despite the fact they are 6-8 in the conference facing a 10-5 ASU team.  Interesting line move and we agree with it.  Take Oregon.

ASA play on: #530 Indiana Pacers -3 over Minnesota Timberwolves, 7PM ET – Both teams are coming off road games last night but we like one of the best teams in the East to rebound at home with a better effort, than a Wolves team on the road again and playing out the string. Minnesota has been bad all season on the road and currently have the 7th worst road record in the NBA at 9-22 SU with an average differential of -4.7PPG (20th in NBA). When playing without rest this season the Wolves are 2-6 SU with an average differential of -3.2PPG. Indiana has the 3rd best home point differential in the league this season at plus +9.3PPG which ties in nicely to their 23-8 SU home record. The Pacers are also 8-3 SU/ATS when playing without rest this season. Karl Anthony Towns had a monster game last night in their OT loss in Atlanta with 35 points and 18 rebounds, but he’ll have a very hard time duplicating those numbers against the defensive minded center for Indiana, Miles Turner. The Wolves have just 1 road win in their last seven away from home and that came against the lowly Knicks. The Pacers on the other hand are 12-3 SU their last 15 at home and the three losses came to the Bucks, Warriors and 76ers. Of those 12 wins only ONE came by less than 8-points and ALL twelve came by 4 or more points. With the 76ers nipping at the Pacers heels in the East we like them to get this home win by 8 or more.

ASA play on: #526 LA Lakers -5.5 over New Orleans Pelicans, 10:30PM ET – If you’ve read our opinions on LeBron and the Lakers you clearly know where we stand on this subject. I personally feel LeBron is a fraud and all this drama this season surrounding the trade deadline was caused by him (and his agent). He knew what the roster was going into the season but was more concerned at that time about the glitz and glam of Hollywood. You make your bed, you must sleep in it. But that’s a side point and I got distracted. When it comes to investing, we put all of that aside though as it’s about the Benjamins and how many we can take from the Books. We are betting the Lakers show up tonight as this game is on national TV and the Pelicans just beat them the other night which helped escalate all the talk in the media. The Lakers were JUST FAVORED by -6.5-points IN NEW ORLEANS and now are laying less than that here? So, what you’re telling me is that the Lakers just got 10-points worse in 5 days? Yeah, no way. The Pelicans are just 9-23 SU on the road this year with a negative differential of -1.8PPG. Digging deeper we find the Pels are just 4-15 SU, 7-12 ATS versus the Western Conference. The Lakers most recent home game was a 5-point win over Houston so asking them to cover this number is not too much to ask for. With Anthony Davis having a limited role for New Orleans it only adds to our confidence in our wager as we know they won’t jeopardize his trade value by playing him late in this contest. The Lakers get revenge here and win by double-digits!

ASA play on: #526 Sacramento Kings +6.5 over Milwaukee Bucks, 10PM ET – The Sacramento Kings have been VERY good to us this season as we’ve won nearly every time we’ve bet on or against them. The Bucks continue to hold the best record in the NBA at 46-14 SU and the public has taken notice. Most of the tickets and money tonight has been bet on the Bucks. That’s perfect for us as it gives us added value with the up-and-coming Kings.  Milwaukee is 14-6 SU against the West this season but just 10-10 ATS which tells us they haven’t been good versus the West as a favorite. The East has improved dramatically but the West is still deeper from top to bottom. Proof of that is Sacramento’s 14-5-1 ATS record (14-6 SU) against the East and they are currently 9th in the West. The Kings recently played 3 games against three of the best teams in the West on the road. They lost to the Warriors by 2, Denver by 2 and beat the Thunder. They return home off a road loss, facing a public team like Milwaukee which will have their full attention. The Bucks have a solid +6.6 points per game road differential this season, but that number is inflated by some blowout road wins over the weaker teams in the East (+14PPG in 6 games against the likes of Chicago, Washington, Orlando, Atlanta, New York and Cleveland). Sacramento is 9-1 SU their last ten home games, prior to that they were home dogs to Golden State and Denver, and they lost both by just 4-points each. This is an easy call with the young Sacramento Kings at home.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Northern Iowa +2 over Loyola Chicago, Wednesday at 8 PM ET

Loyola continues to get way too much respect this year in our opinion.  This is not the team that made it to the Final 4 last season but they continue to be wagered as such.  They have been bet up to a road favorite in this game vs a team that is 9-7 in MVC play and one game out of first place behind Loyola, Missouri State, and Drake.  We’ve faded the Ramblers on the road a number of times this year with very good success.  That includes just a few days ago when we sided with Southern Illinois -1 at home vs Loyola and they Salukis went on to win 63-53.  The Ramblers are now 1-4 SU their last 5 road games with their lone win during that stretch coming @ Valpo by a final score of 56-51.  It was a game that Valpo led 9 with 7:00 minutes remaining and went on to score just 8 points the remainder of the game.  Now they are on the road again for the 2nd time in 4 days facing perhaps the hottest team in the MVC.  Northern Iowa has won 4 consecutive games, all by double digits.  One of those wins was a 63-43 trouncing of Missouri State (tied with Loyola & Drake for 1st place) on the road.  Just before their 4 games run UNI lost a very tight game @ Drake (another 1st place team) in a game that had 19 lead changes.  So the Panthers have played the other 2 first place teams recently, beating one handily on the road and taking the other to the wire on the road.   Now they get to face their 3rd first place team but they get to do it at home on Senior Night with a chance to potentially move into a tie for first place with a win.  UNI is confident and playing their best basketball of the year.  They have outscored their last 5 opponents by an average score of 70-60 while making 47% of their shots and holding their opponents to 41%.  On the season they rank #2 in offensive efficiency in MVC play while ranking 3rd in defensive efficiency.  While Loyola does rank 1st in offensive efficiency, they are 8th in defensive efficiency and 10th (last) in eFG% defense.  Last year’s Loyola team ranked 1st in both of those defensive categories.  As we said, this team isn’t nearly as good as last year’s squad though people continue to think they are.  When these two faced off @ Loyola earlier this year NIU took the Ramblers to the wire losing 61-60.  Now the Panthers are playing much better than they were at that time and they are at home.  We have now doubt that Northern Iowa is the better team right now and they are getting points at home.  We’ll take it.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Texas A&M +12 over LSU, Tuesday at 9 PM ET on ESPN2

This is a fantastic situational spot to go against this young LSU team.  While this is a very good Tiger team, keep in mind they play 4 freshmen in their 7 man rotation.  They are coming off back to back overtime games as well heading into this one.  On Saturday, they played host to Tennessee in a game with huge SEC implications.  The Vols led almost the entire game and did lead the entire 2nd half until 1:20 remaining when LSU was able to tie it.  The game went to OT and the Tigers won on a crazy end of game situation in which a Tennessee player was called for a foul going for an offensive rebound on his end of the court with 0.6 seconds remaining in a tie game.  The Tigers were in no position to win the game as they ball was not even in their offensive zone when the foul was called.  LSU made both FT’s and won in OT 82-80.  They are bound to have a letdown here after that win which was preceded by another OT game (loss to Florida) as we mentioned.  Not only that, they are facing a team they beat by 15 points earlier this year.  You can bet this freshmen laden team will have trouble bringing their “A” game tonight.  A&M is playing much better then than were when these two faced off in January.  Despite their 12-14 overall record, the Aggies have quietly won 4 of their last 5 games and have played 6 solid outings in a row.  In their game vs LSU in January, the Aggies shot just 33% overall and 3 of 21 from deep (14%).  Even with that horrible offensive performance, A&M still only lost by 15 which would be fairly close to this number tonight.  While LSU is 12-2 in SEC play, they’ve won only 3 of those by more than 10 points.  The Tigers last 7 games have all been decided by 5 points or less.  This is a bit of a dangerous game for LSU vs a surging A&M team that has now covered 7 of their last 8 road games.  The Tigers will most likely get this win at home in the end, but it should be much closer than most think. Take the points here.

ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON OVER: Montreal at Detroit, Tuesday at 7:35 PM ET

The Canadiens are expected to have Jonathan Drouin back in the lineup tonight. Either way, this is a great spot to expect plenty from Montreal in the offensive zone. The Canadiens are off a tough 2-1 loss at Florida last night as they did manage 35 shots on goal. In fact Montreal has now totaled 110 shots on goal in their last 3 games. That is an average of 37 shots per game and, prior to the low-scoring loss to the Panthers, the Canadiens had scored 3 or more goals in 4 straight games. We are expecting each team to get at least 3 goals tonight and, of course, that would guarantee at least a 4-3 final at worst. Though we expect the Canadiens to score well in this one there are issues likely for them between the pipes. That is because their #1 goalie, Carey Price, was between in the crease last night. That means either Price has to go in the 2nd night of a back to back (which is not easy and rarely occurs) or Antti Niemi will be getting the call. The over is a fantastic 11-4-1 in Niemi's 16 starts this season! He has particularly struggled on the road where he has an .878 save percentage. He is likely to be opposed by the Red Wings Jimmy Howard tonight but he has been dealing with an illness. When Howard has played recently he has struggled. He has a poor .860 save percentage in his last 4 games (3 starts). If Jonathan Bernier gets the call in between the pipes the Detroit netminder has a rough .868 save percentage in his 5 divisional games (4 starts) this season. The over is 3-1 in those 4 starts. The Red Wings have scored at least 3 goals in 5 of their past 7 games. There have been no unders (3-0 and one push) the last 4 times the Canadiens have played the 2nd game of a back to back. The Red Wings have a number of trends supporting this play as well. Detroit's over is 11-6-1 when revenging a home loss, 12-6-1 when off a defeat by a multiple goal margin in their prior game, and 11-5-1 this season when entering a game on a losing streak of 3 or more games. Bet the OVER in Detroit early Tuesday evening.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Ohio State -3.5 over Iowa, Tuesday at 7 PM ET

This game is MUCH, MUCH bigger for Ohio State.  The Buckeyes sit at 17-10 overall and 7-9 in Big Ten play.  Most NCAA projections have them barely in the tourney right now (10 seed or so).  After this game they play back to back road games and then close with Wisconsin here.  They simply cannot afford to lose this game vs Iowa.  A win would be a resume builder vs a solid (but overrated in our opinion) Iowa Hawkeye team.  OSU has lost 3 of their last 4 games but two of those games were on the road vs top tier Big Ten opponents Michigan State & Maryland.  Their most recent home game was a 14-point win over Northwestern.  The Bucks struggle at times to score but they are much better at putting the ball in the basket at home where they average 75 PPG on 48% shooting.  They should also have a chance to thrive offensively tonight due to their opponent as the Iowa Hawkeyes rank dead last in the Big Ten in defensive efficiency.  OSU is much better on that end of the court ranking 19th nationally in defensive efficiency and they gave the Hawkeyes some problems in their first meeting.  That game vs OSU was just one of five games this season that Iowa was held to a offensive efficiency rating of below 100.  Even though the Hawks had problems with this Buckeye defense in Iowa City, they still won by 10 due to a +10 advantage in made FT’s for the game (+14 in FT attempts).  OSU also had season high 21 turnovers in that game which contributed to a number of Iowa points.  Ohio State point guard CJ Jackson sat out last weekend’s loss @ Maryland but he did practice on Sunday and seems likely to play tonight which will give this team a boost.  Iowa looks to us like a team that is faltering a bit right now.  They are 10-6 overall in the Big Ten but their last 5 games have been shaky at best.  Those games include a tight 5-point win @ Indiana, a 1-point home win vs Northwestern (buzzer beater), a 2-point miracle buzzer beater win @ Rutgers, a loss at home vs Maryland, and a OT win last weekend at home vs Indiana.  Their road wins in league play have come against Rutgers (miracle shot), Indiana, Northwestern, and Penn State – 4 of the 5 lowest rated teams in the Big Ten.  Last year OSU was laying -14.5 on this court vs Iowa and now we’re looking at -3 to -3.5 just one year later.  The unranked Buckeyes are favored by a possession or more vs #22 Iowa?  Hmmm…  We like Ohio State here.

ASA play on: #568 Miami Heat -8.5 over Phoenix Suns, 7:30PM ET – The Suns are obviously one of the teams currently in the NBA that are “not tryin for Zion”. Phoenix has lost 17 straight games and 24 of their last 26. They have some ugly road losses in that stretch too. In their two most recent road games they’ve lost to the Hawks by 8 and the Cavs by 13 who are two of the other worst teams in the league. The last time the Suns won a road game was back on December 26th in Orlando and 11 of their last fourteen road beats has come by 8 or more points. The Heat are fighting for their playoff lives and currently sit a game-and-a-half behind Charlotte for the 8th and final spot. Miami has lost two straight with the most recent being an upset at home to a hot Detroit team, so I expect them to bounce back here. Phoenix has an average differential on the road of -13PPG which is the worst number in the NBA and if the Heat can’t beat the Suns at home by double-digits who can they beat that badly at home? We will go contrarian here and lay the points with Miami when most will stay away from this bet.

ASA play on: #555 Orlando Magic +9.5 @ Toronto Raptors, 3:35PM ET – This is a great spot to play on the Magic and against the Raptors. Orlando went into the All-Star break on a solid streak by winning 5 straight games and 7 of their last eight games overall. They then came out of the break and were upset by the Bulls as an 8-point chalk. That will have them refocused here in Toronto. The Raptors may not be dialed in here today for the following reasons. One, they are coming off a huge home win versus the Spurs which was DeRozan’s first game back in Toronto, along with Leonard facing his former team. Two, the Raptors have a HUGE game on deck against Boston. Three, the Raptors beat the Magic by 29-points earlier this year so it will be easy to overlook them. In their last eight road games the Magic’s largest negative differential was -10-points in OKC. Their other road losses have come by 5, 4 and 5-points. The Raptors have one of the best home records in the NBA at 25-5 SU with a +8.1-point differential but clearly that differential won’t get the cover here. Toronto is just 8-15 ATS when laying 9 or more points this season. Grab the generous points and Orlando in this game.

ASA 10* play on: Sacramento Kings +6 @ Oklahoma City Thunder, 8PM ET – The Kings have been very good to us this season and continue to be under-valued by the oddsmakers (35-23 ATS). Sacramento is making a push for a playoff spot and the young talent of Bagley, Fox and Hield are starting to pay dividends for their draft status. The Kings and Thunder have similar numbers offensively when it comes to efficiency ratings, but OKC is quite a bit better in offensive efficiency. Sacramento makes up for their lack of efficiency on offense by playing fast (4th) and score 113.6PPG which is 9th in the NBA. The Kings defense has been much better of late as they’ve held their last five foes to just over 44% shooting and that includes two games against the other two best teams in the West, Denver and Golden Stage. The same can’t be said for Oklahoma City who has allowed opponents to hit nearly 47% of their attempts in their last five.  The Kings were recently a 7-point dog in Denver (who we rate better than OKC) and lost by just 2 points. Sacramento was just +12 in Golden State and took the Warriors to the wire, losing by just 2. The Kings last four road games have been decided by 2, 2, 4 and a 3-point win. OKC is coming off a double OT game last night versus Utah which saw Westbrook play 42+ minutes, George 50+, Adams 47+. The Thunder were a 4-point favorite last night and their isn’t much difference between the Kings and Jazz currently. The Kings 6-1 ATS steak versus the Thunder improves by a ‘W’ tonight. Grab the points!

CBB PLAY ON Washington State +1.5 over Utah, Saturday at 8:00 PM ET - WSU is flying a bit under the radar right now due to their overall season record of just 11-15.  First off, four of those losses came when the Cougars were without Robert Franks who is one of the top players in the Pac 12.  Franks is back and playing his best basketball of the season averaging 25 PPG over his last 5 contests.  He leads the Pac 12 in scoring at 22 PPG and the 6’9 senior also averages almost 8 RPG.  The Cougs are 4-9 in league play, however Franks missed the first 3 conference games due to an injury so with him in the line up they are a respectable 4-6 in Pac 12 play.  WSU is playing their best basketball of the season right now winning 3 of their last 4 games.  They’ve done so playing against some of the top teams in the league beating ASU (#2 rated team in the Pac 12) on the road, beating Arizona on the road, losing to Washington (by far the #1 team on the league) by just 2 points and they topped Colorado here on Wednesday.  Over their last 5 the Cougars are averaging 78 PPG and winning by an average margin of 6 PPG.  They are also well rested as they had a full week off from Feb 9th to Feb 16th and have only played 2 games since.  Utah comes in trending downward losing 4 of their last 7 games.  They are one of the youngest teams in the Pac 12 starting 3 freshmen who seem to be hitting a wall.  That includes 2nd leading scorer Timmy Allen (12 PPG) who was out due to a back injury in the Utes 62-45 loss @ Washington on Wednesday.  He will be a game time decision for this one.  Utah, unlike WSU, is not rested as they will be playing their 4th game in 10 days.  When these two met in January, the Utes rolled to an 18-point win shooting 55% to just 35% for WSU.  Keep in mind, Franks, who was spoke about above, was out for the Cougars in that game.  He makes a huge difference on both ends of the court.   The host has covered 13 of the last 16 meetings in this series and these are two completely different teams than the ones that met over a month ago.  Washington State keeps playing well and they get the win at home.

ASA NBA play on: #529 Utah Jazz +4 over Oklahoma City Thunder, 9:35PM ET – The Jazz knocked the Thunder out of the playoffs last season and OKC has gotten their revenge on Utah twice already this season. With this being the 3rd meeting of the season that ‘revenge’ angle has worn off. Last night we liked Boston and the points over Milwaukee because of the edge with a good coach and extra time to prepare which is much like tonight’s contest with Quin Snyder and the Jazz. Utah is one of the better road teams in the NBA with a 14-15 SU record and a differential of +.2 which is 7th best in the league. They have been especially good off a loss with a 15-9 SU record, 14-3 ATS their last seventeen in that situation. Overall, as a dog in this price range the Jazz are 7-4 ATS this season. Oklahoma is clearly a team that could come out of the West (as is Utah) and they’ve been red hot of late with a 12-2 SU run, but only five of those wins have come against teams with an above .500 record. The line on this game is very inviting to bet OKC which has a ton of public money and tickets, so we’ll obviously bet the other way. Take Utah plus the points!

ASA play on: #507 Boston Celtics +5.5 over Milwaukee Bucks, 8PM ET – It’s do-or-die time for the Celtics who sit 4th in the East but are tied with Philly. Clearly the top 4 spots in the conference get home court in the first round which makes this final stretch of the regular season critical. Boston has had their issues on the road against good teams, but they do have a positive road differential of +2.8PPG which is the 5th best number in the NBA. The C’s come into this game having won 12 of their last fifteen games and have only been a road dog of 5 or more points just two times this year. We are not over-looking Milwaukee’s 14-2 SU run or their home point differential, but the situation clearly favors the dog here. Boston has the best coach in the game in our opinion and with the added rest and lack of distractions from the All-Star game he’ll have the perfect game plan for this game tonight. Boston has covered 9 of the last twelve meetings with the Bucks and they’ll keep this close throughout and I’m not surprised if they win outright.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Appalachian State +2 over Georgia State, Thursday at 7:00 PM ET

Why are the Georgia State Panthers with an 18-8 overall record only favored by 2 points @ Appalachian State who enters this game with a 9-16 record?  Most, who don’t follow the Sun Belt as closely as we do, will look at this game and immediately bet the small road favorite.  That would be a mistake in our opinion.  App State might be just 4-8 in league play but they are tough at home and trending upward.  They started the conference losing 6 straight but have since gone 4-2 over their last 6 games.  Even their 2 losses during this stretch have seen them play solid basketball.  They lost @ Texas State (highest rated team in the Sun Belt – currently in 1st place) but just 3 points.  It was a game that Texas State shot 55% as a team but still had to hold off App State who missed a 3-pointer at the buzzer which would have sent the game to OT.  They followed up that disappointing loss with a flat performance just 2 days later in a 10-point loss @ UT Arlington.  That was really the Mountaineers only poor outing over their last 6 games and the situation warranted a potential flat outing for them.  They are 8-2 overall at home this year and have won 3 straight here during this stretch.  They average 86 PPG at home and shoot nearly 50%.  Georgia State is trending the other way in our opinion.  They started the Sun Belt season with a perfect 5-0 mark but have since gone just 4-4.  All 4 of those wins have come at home and the Panthers have lost 3 straight road games.  Two of those road losses came vs teams ranked lower than App State (Louisiana & and Troy) and the other came @ UL Monroe who is 6-6 in conference play.  Their most recent game came last Friday at home vs South Alabama who is the 3rd lowest rated team in the Sun Belt.  Georgia State won the game but had to battle back from a 50-32 deficit to do so and remember this was at home vs a team that has lost 8 of their last 11 games.  GSU relies very heavily on the 3-point shot which might be part of the reason they struggle away from home.  They are a poor rebounding team (last in the Sun Belt at -6 per game) that shoots only 63% from the line (also last in the league) so in a close game late they are not always reliable.  Despite their impressive record, GSU’s point differential is almost dead even in conference play as they’ve outscored opponents by an average of 77-74.  App State, despite their 4-8 record, has a plus point differential outscoring teams in league play 81-79.  These two teams are much closer than their records might indicate and with ASU getting points at home in the midst of playing their best basketball of the season, we like them quite a bit in this spot.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Under 128 Points - Northwestern @ Ohio State, Wed at 8:30 PM ET

These are two of the least efficient offensive teams in the Big Ten (OSU 11th & Northwestern 14th) and both are currently in big time slumps on that end of the court.  Northwestern has made only 37% of their shots over the last 5 games and they are averaging just 57 PPG during that span.  They rank dead last in the Big Ten (conference games) averaging just 60 PPG.  Over their last 6 games the Cats have topped 56 points just once and that was vs an up tempo Iowa team (2nd in Big Ten tempo) that is poor defensively (14th in conference in defensive efficiency).  Ohio State hasn’t been much better.  Over their last 5 games the Buckeyes have made only 42% of their shots and they are averaging 61 PPG.  They have been held to 56 points or less in 4 of their last 6 games.  OSU ranks 12th in the Big Ten (conference games) in scoring putting up only 64 PPG.  Defensively these teams are far ahead of the offenses.  They both rank in the top 25 nationally in defensive efficiency and in the top 35 nationally in eFG% defense.  Both teams are slower paced (257th and 298th nationally) and neither gets to the FT line very often (12th and 10th in the Big Ten in FTA/FGA).  Ohio State may also be a bit undermanned tonight as starting guard CJ Jackson (13 PPG) injured his ankle over the weekend @ Michigan State and is not at 100%.  He may play, but it looks like he will be limited if he does.  We don’t see either of these struggling offenses getting back on track tonight and we envision a defensive grinder.  This total opened at 124 and has pushed up to 128 and we agree with the oddsmakers number.  The value is on the UNDER here and we’ll play it. 

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Clemson -1 over Florida State, Tuesday at 9 PM ET

We think the Tigers come into this one a bit undervalued.  They are just 15-10 on the season and only 5-7 in league play.  However, they are 4-3 their last 7 games and their losses during that stretch have come by 1, 1, and 2 points all on the road.  They took a very good Louisville team to the wire on the road Saturday only to see the Cards win by a point.  This Clemson team is better than their record.  They returned 4 starters from last year’s team that finished 25-10 and made it to the Sweet 16.  They are now backed into a corner at home in a must win spot.  They are 4-1 in ACC play at home with their only loss coming at the hands of Virginia.  The Tigers are fantastic defensively (13th nationally in defensive efficiency) but they have struggled on offense at times.  At home they seem to play much better on that end of the court shooting 47% and averaging 72 PPG here at Littlejohn Coliseum.  FSU comes in a bit overvalued in our minds after winning 7 straight games.  Keep in mind the Seminoles have played the easiest schedule thus far in the ACC yet they still are only 8-4 in league play.  With all of Clemson’s close losses, the Tigers could also be sitting with a similar record if a few bounces had gone their way.  FSU has just played the 2 worst teams in the ACC, Georgia Tech & Wake, their last 2 games winning each big giving them a false sense of security.  The Noles also have a huge game on deck with North Carolina so a look ahead wouldn’t be surprising especially playing a Clemson team they already beat in Tallahassee this year.  Florida State is 3-3 on the road in ACC play but two of those losses have come to lower tier teams Pitt & Boston College.  Last year Clemson, with basically the same line up, beat FSU here by 13 points as a 3-point favorite.  Now they are laying only 1 point in a must win spot.  The host has won 6 of the last 7 in this series and this is a MUCH bigger game for Clemson.  We’ll side with the Tigers.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Alabama -1.5 over Texas A&M, Tuesday at 9 PM ET

We had been very successful this season when playing on or against Bama heading into last Saturday.  We felt the Tide were in a great spot at home vs Florida and they laid an egg as the Gators blew them out in Tuscaloosa.  We’ll come back with the Crimson Tide here and expect a very good performance off that embarrassing home effort.  Head coach Avery Johnson was livid with Saturday’s effort and said he’d do whatever it takes to win, including benching players that don’t put forth the effort needed.  The players go the message as starting guard John Petty stated yesterday, “I guarantee you’ll see a whole nother team coming out on Tuesday.”  Bama is officially on the NCAA bubble and a loss here would be devastating.  As expected, the Tide have struggled to beat the top teams in the SEC on the road, however the lower tier teams they’ve proven they can beat.  The 4 lowest rated teams in the SEC, by a fairly wide margin, are Vandy, Georgia, Texas A&M, and Mizzou.  The Tide have played 2 of those teams on the road this year beating both Mizzou and Vandy by double digits.  A&M started the SEC season losing 8 of their first 9 conference games.  Then last week they beat Mizzou & Georgia, two of the worst teams in the SEC, to get to 3-8.  Over the weekend they blew a double digit lead vs South Carolina and lost by 7.  That could very well be a demoralizing loss for this team and lingers into this match up.  The Aggies have had no home court advantage this year losing 6 of their last 8 home games.  They sit right near the bottom of the SEC in both offensive and defensive efficiency (13th & 14th).  Bama also has a bit more incentive here as they led A&M for 37 of the 40 minutes in Tuscaloosa but lost by 1-point on a off-balance, banked in 3-pointer at the buzzer.  Bama is the better team and they a lot of motivation here for the reasons discussed.  Where this line sits they really only have to win the game so we’ll take Alabama.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Bradley +4.5 over Drake, Tuesday at 8 PM ET

The Braves came into the season with very high expectations with the majority of their key contributors returning from a 20-13 team.  After going just 8-10 their first 18 games including 0-5 to start Missouri Valley play, this talented team was definitely headed in the wrong direction.  That all turned around on January 20th when this team pulled the upset at Southern Illinois to pick up their first conference win.  They are now 7-2 their last 9 games, including 4 road wins.  Their offense struggled early in the year but over their last 8 games this team has made 47% of their 3-pointers (3 best in the nation during that stretch) and 49% of their shots overall.  That has catapulted this team that already had a very good defense (2nd in MVC in defensive efficiency & eFG% defense) and they are at the top of their game right now.  Their most recent two games were wins over 2 of the best teams in the league as they topped Loyola Chicago at home and then won @ Illinois State over the weekend.  The oddmakers have not caught up to this team as the last 8 times they’ve been an underdog, they’ve won 6 of those games outright.  Drake is tied for first place in the conference and just picked up their 20th win by holding on at home to beat Valpo by 5 over the weekend.  It’s their first 20 win season since 2007 so a bit of a letdown after achieving that major goal wouldn’t be a shocker.  Unlike Bradley, the Bulldogs aren’t playing as well as they were earlier in the year.  They are 4-2 their last 6 games, however all 4 of those wins have come by 6 points or less.  Their point differential over their last 5 games is dead even as they are averaging 74 PPG and allowing 74 PPG.  They already won @ Bradley back in early January when the Braves were faltering.  Bradley attempted 11 more shots in that first match up but made only 31% overall and only 20% from beyond the arc.  They are playing much better now and we expect a solid performance from the Braves who have a little extra motivation due to that first match up.  The road team has won 4 of the last 5 meetings outright and we give Bradley a great shot to win here.  There is a reason the 20-win, 1st place team is only favored by 4 facing the team that is 7-7 in conference play.  Take Bradley.

ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON OVER: Vegas at Colorado, Monday at 9:05 PM ET

The over is 5-0 in the Golden Knights last 5 games. Vegas had been on a losing skid and so they made some line changes to spark the team and it worked out very well as they won 5-1 over visiting Nashville Saturday. Now the Golden Knights take to the road and they carry extra confidence from generating 50 shots on goal and scoring 5 goals against the Predators. The issue tonight for Vegas will be between the pipes. Though Malcolm Subban had a great start for the Golden Knights Saturday, Marc-Andre Fleury is likely to be back between the pipes tonight. Fleury's last 3 starts were all losses and Vegas allowed an average of 5 goals per game in those 3 defeats. Ever since the calendar turned the page to 2019, Fleury has not been the same netminder he was in the first 3 months of this season. Should Vegas surprise and go with Subban again, we would gladly challenge him to come up big again in consecutive starts. Subban has not been used in back to back starts this entire season. The Avalanche are known for their dangerous top line of Rantanen, MacKinnon, and Landeskog. With Vegas playing a more aggressive style again, this is likely to lead to some end to end action in this game with swift moving of the puck creating solid scoring chances and some breakdowns on defense. The Avalanche know all about defensive breakdowns as they have lost 6 straight home games and allowed an average of 4.7 goals per game in those 6 defeats! The Avs are off a rare home shutout but, even with recent struggles, Colorado entered that game having averaged 3 goals per game in their prior 12 games. With consideration to all of the above factors, we see no reason that each team won't get to at least 3 goals here and, of course, the game can't end 3-3! Great value with this over at 6 even for Monday night. Prior to the home shutout versus the Blues Saturday, the over was 6-2 in Colorado's previous 8 home games. The over is 4-1 in the Golden Knights last 5 games against teams with a losing record. The over is 8-2 this season when the Avalanche scored a goal or less in their prior game. This is a revenge game for the Avs and that is a situation that has seen the over go 77-54 long-term including 19-11 this season. Bet the OVER in Colorado Monday evening.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Illinois +9.5 over Wisconsin, Monday at 8 PM ET - On Fox Sports 1

These two met back in January and Wisconsin (-4) won the game 72-60 and looking at the final stats it wasn’t surprising.  The Badgers shot over 50% overall and 50% from beyond the arc.  They also hit 81% at the FT line.  Illinois, on the other hand, made just 35% of their shots and a paltry 19% from deep.  Even with that, the game was not a blowout.  It landed right around where tonight’s number sits.  Since that game the Illini have played very well winning 5 of their last 6 games heading into tonight.  It’s not as if they are beating all lower tier Big Ten teams either as they’ve knocked off Michigan State, Maryland, and Ohio State during that stretch.  The Illini have really turned up the heat defensively as their pressure defense ranks #1 in the Big Ten at creating turnovers.  While Wisconsin is normally tight with the ball, they did cough it up 17 times @ Illinois or 25% of their possessions which is very high.  To give you an idea, that number would rank them dead last in the Big Ten by a lot.  Those turnovers led the Illinois taking 15 more shot attempts, the problem was they shot so terribly they couldn’t take advantage of it.  We think that changes tonight as the Illini have played very well offensively as well shooting 46% and averaging 77 PPG their last 5.  The Badgers are off back to back huge games vs Michigan & Michigan State, both went to the wire and they lost both.  UW’s offense has not topped 69 points in their last 6 games and they are only averaging 59 PPG their last 5.  While their defense has been very good, we don’t see them completely shutting down Illinois tonight.  We see Wisconsin having a tough time pulling away in a lower scoring type game.  The Badgers should win this one, however we think it will be fairly close.  Take the points.

ASA's 10* CBB PLAY ON Creighton -4.5 over Seton Hall, Sunday at 3:00 PM ET

These two just met on February 9th with Seton Hall coming away with a 63-58 win.  The Jays offense was outright abysmal in that game yet they still took the Hall to the wire.  Creighton, who ranks 5th nationally in eFG% offense and 9th nationally in 3-point FG%, shot just 30% from the field and only 28% from deep in that game.  They were a ridiculously bad 6 of 22 in that game at the rim (layups) and again, even with that performance, it was a 1-point game with 10 seconds remaining.  The Jays are finally back home after a 3 game road trip that saw them go 0-3.  They hit a shooting slump during that 3 game span, but as stated all were on the road.  Even during their offensive slump, they Blue Jays were competitive during that road trip losing in OT @ Villanova, losing in OT @ Xavier, and then losing @ Seton Hall by 5.  Their defense has been playing very well and keeping them in games.  Now what happens when their offense breaks out and they shoot it like they are capable?  We’d say an easy win and we expect that today.  Creighton shoots much better at home hitting over 50% of their shots and 42% of their 3-pointers.  The game before they left on their 3 game road trip the Jays beat Xavier here by 22 points.  Seton Hall has won 3 of their last 4 but all of those wins were at home.  On the road it’s been a different story for this team.  After winning their Big East road opener at Xavier, the Pirates have gone on to lose 5 straight away from home.  They are averaging just 67 PPG on the road while Creighton puts up over 80 PPG at home.  The home team has won 5 straight in this series and the last two games here in Omaha saw the Jays win by 17 & 14 points.  We expect Creighton to break out of their mini slump and shoot very well at home today.  That leads to an easy, quick revenge win over Seton Hall.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Arizona State +2 over Utah, Saturday at 10 PM ET on Fox Sports 1

We’ve been on or against ASU in each of their last 2 games and cashed in on both.  We were on the Devils last Saturday when they were a home favorite over then undefeated Washington (in Pac 12 play).  ASU picked up the double digit win and cashed for us.  We then faded the Sun Devils on Wednesday when they went to Colorado and we picked up another win as the Buffs won 77-73.  We’re back on Arizona State here.  We’ve mentioned before this Sun Devil team has been all over the board.  They’ve beaten the likes of Kansas, Washington, and Mississippi State.  They’ve also lost to the likes of Washington State, Vanderbilt, and Princeton.  It seems if they are focused and motivated, they can be very good.  If not, they tend to play down to their competition.  ASU should definitely be motivated here as they are off their tight loss @ Colorado and lost earlier this year at home to Utah.  In that game the Utes pulled off the 96-86 upset as 11-point underdogs.  They shot lights out making 51% of their shots overall, 53% from beyond the arc, and 82% from the FT line.  Those numbers are all well above the Utes season averages on offense (+20 points, +6% from the field, +15% from 3, and +12% from the FT line for the game).  That was the first conference game for both teams the Utah’s best offensive performance in Pac 12 play as they put up 1.26 PPP.  That is not the norm vs Arizona State’s defense which is very solid ranking in the top 70 nationally in both defensive efficiency and eFG% defense.  Even with those lofty numbers, Utah fell behind by 17 points in the game and rallied back for a win.  It’s a loss that ASU has not forgotten and head coach Bobby Hurley stated it was a frustrating game that they had control of but let the Utes back in it.  The Devils will be ready here.  Utah sits in 2nd place in the conference with an 8-4 record yet their power rating has them as the 8th best team in the Pac 12.  Arizona State is a game behind Utah in 4th place but the Devils power rating has them as the 3rd best team in the league behind only Washington & Oregon.  Arizona State has a big edge defensively in this game with Utah ranking 253rd nationally in defensive efficiency and 229th in eFG% defense (ASU’s numbers are above).  Utah is off a big home win on Thursday night as they beat Arizona.  It was a big revenge game for them as they lost in OT at Zona.  This young Utah team (3 freshmen in the starting line up) might have trouble getting back up for this game vs a team they’ve already beaten.  The Utes don’t have a huge home court edge as that win gives them a 3-3 home record in the Pac 12.  The road team has won 4 straight in this series and we’ll make it 5 as Arizona State gets the win on Saturday night. 

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON San Diego -2.5 over BYU, Thursday at 10 PM ET - ASA's WEST COAST CONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR

San Diego comes into this game with a 5-5 record in the West Coast Conference but we feel they are drastically undervalued right now.  We had the Toreros rated as the #2 team in the league coming into the season only behind Gonzaga.  They proved they were worthy of that rating going 11-4 in the non-conference with their only losses coming by 3 @ Washington (the top team in the Pac 12), by 7 @ Ole Miss, by 10 @ Oregon, and in OT vs Drake (the 2nd place team in the Missouri Valley).  San Diego had non-conference wins over Washington State, San Diego State, & Colorado to name a few.  So why are they just 5-5 in league play?  Injuries.  Their starting senior guards, Isaiah Wright and Olin Carter, have only played together twice the entire month of January.  Those two games just happened to be the Toreros 2 most recent tilts and both are healthy now and playing together for the 3rd straight game.  That’s huge as Wright averages 13 PPG and leads the team in assists despite missing 4 games while Carter puts up 16 PPG and is one of their top 3-point shooters.  They should be motivated here after blowing a 3-point lead with under 10 seconds remaining in the game last weekend in a 70-67 loss @ Pepperdine.  San Diego has been lights out at home going 11-1 on the season with their only loss coming by 5 points last month when Wright was out.  This is a veteran team when healthy with 4 seniors in the starting lineup, all of whom started last year for a team that went 20-14 on the season.  BYU comes in just the opposite in our opinion which is overvalued.  They are 8-3 and in 2nd place in the WCC.  However, they’ve played a fairly easy conference slate to date but the heat starts now as they face the top 5 teams in the league from this point on starting tonight.  The Cougs have also been a poor road team with a 3-7 mark and their 3 wins coming against 3 of the 4 lowest rated teams in the conference.  BYU’s two road games thus far against the top 5 teams in the league have resulted in losses to St Marys and San Francisco by margins of 22 & 19 points respectively.  Tonight they face a San Diego team that is every bit as good as those teams when healthy.  Last year a better BYU team traveled to San Diego as a 3-point favorite and lost by 13.  Two years ago the Cougs went to San Diego as a 10 point favorite and lost by 13.  Now they face a much better Torero team, with 4 starters back from the team that won by 13 here last year.  The host has now covered 8 of the last 9 and this sets up very nicely for San Diego.  This number is too low and we’ll take San Diego on Thursday Night.

ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON OVER: Ottawa at Detroit, Thursday at 7:35 PM ET

The Senators Craig Anderson would likely have gotten this start in goal tonight but he has been downgraded to doubtful for this game due to an eye injury he suffered in the gym. That means Anders Nilsson will be between the pipes tonight for Ottawa and he is coming off a horrific 3rd period in the loss to Carolina Tuesday that is the type of collapse in a game that can impact the mentality of a netminder in his next start. Nilsson is not the normal #1 for the Sens and he also struggled in his most recent road start. The Senators lost 5-3 at Pittsburgh in the most recent road start for Nilsson. Twice in Nilsson's last 3 road starts Ottawa has given up 4 or more goals. The Senators will be looking to atone for a poor performance against the Hurricanes in the offensive zone Tuesday. Prior to scoring just 1 goal against the Canes, the Sens had scored 4 or more goals in 3 straight games! The Red Wings are off a big dog upset win at Nashville Tuesday as they allowed only 2 goals. However, Detroit had allowed an average of 4 goals per game in their 3 prior games. The Wings have allowed 14 goals in Jimmy Howard's last 4 home starts and he is expected to get the call tonight. The Senators have revenge here and the over is 21-10 this season in their revenge games. Also, Ottawa's O/U is 13-6 this season when they are off a defeat that came by a multi-goal margin. In road games with a total set at 6 or more goals, the Sens O/U is 16-8-1 this season. There have been 7 special teams goals scored in the Red Wings last 4 games. Ottawa's penalty killing unit only killed off 2 of 4 opportunities in the Carolina game. The Senators power play unit however is 2 for 4 on the power play in their last two road games. With special teams and the goalie situation helping us tonight, this one should see 7 or more goals scored! Bet the OVER in Detroit Thursday evening.