Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
01-19-24 | Hawks v. Heat -6.5 | Top | 109-108 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Miami Heat -6.5 vs. Atlanta Hawks – 8:10 PM ET - This is certainly a tough scheduling spot for the Hawks who are coming off a game last night versus the Magic while Miami is rested. It took a buzzer beating shot by Dejonte Murray to steal that victory last night and we’re betting they have a tough time getting back up for this game tonight. When Miami last played they were blown out in Toronto 121-97. The Heat rank 11th in defensive efficiency rating but they struggled to get stops against the Raptors and allowed 20 made 3-pointers. Prior to that loss the Heat had won 3 straight games and are finally getting healthy Butler, Adebayo and Herro all in the lineup. These teams met in December with the Heat winning 122-113 at home as a 1-point chalk. Miami played without Butler in that game and still won by 9-points. The Hawks haven’t been a great road team this season with a negative differential of minus -1.7PPG and a 9-12 SU record. Miami has had a ton of missed games by starters this season yet still have a home record of 12-7 SU and an average +/- of plus 1.2PPG. Miami has been very good when coming off a loss with a 61% win rate dating back to the start of last season. Atlanta is one of the worst teams in the NBA when playing without rest with a 5-15 SU record in their last 20. Miami has won outright 7 of the last ten meetings and will get a double-digit win here. |
|||||||
01-19-24 | St. Louis +8.5 v. VCU | Top | 61-85 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 26 m | Show |
#873 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* St Louis +8.5 over VCU, Friday at 7 PM ET - St Louis is an undervalued team right now in our opinion with an 8-9 overall record and just 1-3 in the Atlantic 10. That’s because this team is finally healthy after having a number of injuries this season. Four of their top seven scorers have missed time this year due to injury. Top guard Parker has been back for 2 games after missing 9 in a row and starting center Ezewiro, a transfer from Georgetown, missed the first 11 games of the season and has scored double digits in every game since his return. Meadows and Hughes are 2 other key players who have missed time this season. They have had all hands on deck for their last 2 games and played very well beating a good St Joes team at home and then taking by far the best team in the A10, Dayton, to the wire on the road on Tuesday losing by just 5 points. The Billikens held tough with the Flyers despite attempting just 7 FT’s compared to 29 for Dayton. Now they take on a VCU team that is rated the 4th or 5th best team in the A10 and is 2-2 in league play with both wins coming to the wire (wins by 4 & 6 points). VCU has also struggled at home this season already losing 5 games on their home court. The Rams average margin of victory this year is +6 points and they’ve won 4 games by more than 12 points this season and 3 of those 4 wins came vs teams ranked 220 or lower. We like St Louis to give VCU all they can handle in this one so we’re grabbing the generous points. |
|||||||
01-18-24 | Western Kentucky v. New Mexico State -125 | Top | 70-72 | Win | 100 | 16 h 47 m | Show |
#810 ASA PLAY ON New Mexico State pick-em -125 over Western Kentucky, Thursday at 9 PM ET - This is an interesting line to say the least. It opened with NMSU as a pick-em at home despite the fact that WKY has won 9 of their last 10 games and New Mexico State has a losing record and they’ve won only 4 of their last 12. Looks pretty easy to take the Hilltoppers here based on that but there is a reason this game is near a pick-em rather than WKY favored. We wouldn’t be at all surprised if New Mexico State goes off as the favorite here. The Aggies have played the much tougher schedule thus far (45th SOS compared to WKY 232nd SOS) and they’ve been very tough at home going 7-1 SU this year. Their only loss at home was by 1 point to a very good New Mexico team who is currently ranked 32nd in KenPom rankings. They’ve already faced 4 top 100 teams and 7 teams ranked in the top 150. Western Kentucky, on the other hand, has faced 1 team this entire season that is currently ranked in the top 140. NMSU new head coach Hooten, who came over after a very successful 13 year run at Sam Houston State, took some time to get this team acclimated and playing the type of basketball he wants. They struggled big time early in the season but they’ve now won 2 of their last 3 games and even in their losses they’ve been competitive with 3 of their last 4 setbacks coming by 6 points or less. NMSU has played 8 home games this year and their average winning margin is 75-58. With the Aggies joining CUSA this year after being in the WAC last season, this is the first time WKY has had to make the long 1,500 mile trek from Bowling Green KY to Las Cruces NM. There is a reason the 7-10 team is favored (or close to pick-em) over the team that has a 13-4 record. Take New Mexico State here. |
|||||||
01-18-24 | Florida International v. Liberty -12.5 | Top | 69-78 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
#768 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Liberty -12.5 over FIU, Thursday at 7 PM ET - Despite the Flames sitting as a double digit favorite, we’re still get value on them in this game. That’s because they’ve lost 3 straight and sit at 0-3 in CUSA play (first year in CUSA) after winning the Atlantic Sun conference with a 15-3 record last year. They have plenty of experience back off that team that went 27-8 last year with 5 of their top 7 rotation guys back. Two of their three losses over the last week and half have come by 2 points and in OT and all 3 were vs top 150 teams. They’ve faced a top 100 schedule so far this season including the most difficult in Conference USA. In Liberty’s most recent home game, they were favored by 11 vs a Jacksonville State team that ranks more than 100 spots higher than this FIU team yet the spread vs the Panthers on Thursday is only 1 or 2 points higher. FIU has a 7-11 record despite playing a much easier schedule (276th SOS) but they’ve won 2 in a row, both at home vs teams ranked outside the top 220, thus the lower number. Liberty is a very good shooting team, top 100 in eFG% and offensive efficiency, and they are facing a terrible FIU defense that ranks outside the top 340 in eFG%, 2 point FG%, and 3 point FG% defense. The Panthers allow 84 PPG on the road and they are facing a Liberty offense that puts up over 80 PPG at home while limiting their opponents to just 50 PPG. The Flames, despite their 0-3 conference record, are still the highest rated team in CUSA per KenPom. They have a home record of 37-5 SU since the start of the 2021 season and this is an absolute must win for them at home. Big win here for Liberty. |
|||||||
01-17-24 | Bucks -3.5 v. Cavs | Top | 95-135 | Loss | -115 | 16 h 11 m | Show |
ASA top play on #503 Milwaukee Bucks -3.5 or -4 @ Cleveland Cavaliers, 7:40 PM ET - The Cavs have won 5 straight games, but they’ve come against 19-23 Bulls, 16-23 Nets, 7-32 Spurs and two wins against the 7-32 Wizards. So, let’s not be fooled by this current Cavaliers stretch of wins. The Bucks on the other hand have won 3 straight against the Celtics, Warriors and Kings. Milwaukee is the superior team here offensively ranking 3rd compared to the Cavs ranking 20th. Cleveland does hold the advantage defensively with the 5th best overall rating compared to the Bucks at 15th. Milwaukee has the 3rd best 3-point percentage in the league while the Cavs rank 10th in 3PT% defense. The Cavs are 26th in the NBA in 3PT% shooting and won’t make many against the Bucks defense that is 2nd in the league in defending the 3-point line. In fact, in the most recent meeting between these two teams the Bucks held the Cavs to 6 of 43 on 3-point field goals. The Cavaliers are still without dynamic PG Garland and starting Center Mobley and simply don’t have the depth to hang with Milwaukee at near full strength. Lay the points on the road. |
|||||||
01-17-24 | Virginia Tech v. Virginia -3.5 | Top | 57-65 | Win | 100 | 16 h 38 m | Show |
#702 ASA TOP PLAY ON Virginia -3.5 over Virginia Tech, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - Love this spot for UVA who is coming off 2 straight losses, both on the road, and now coming home where they are 9-0 on the season. Va Tech is trending down with a 5-5 SU record since late November and they’ve beaten 1 top 100 team since November 26th. The Hokies are 0-4 in true road games this season with 3 of those losses coming by double digits. In their road games this season Va Tech is barely making 40% of their shots and averaging just 64 PPG. We don’t anticipate them breaking out on the road here vs a Virginia defense that ranks 19th nationally in defensive efficiency and is holding their opponents to a paltry 49 PPG at home. The Hokies are a good FT shooting team and they really rely in getting to the charity stripe (70th nationally in % of points from the FT line) but the Cavs rarely foul allowing opponents only 9 made FT’s per game at home. We went against UVA on the road on Saturday @ WF and they were rolled by double digits. This is a different team at home where they are winning by an average of +25 PPG with a 7-2 ATS record. UVA was favored by 5 here last year and won by 10 and we see a similar final score on Wednesday night. Lay it with Virginia. |
|||||||
01-16-24 | Kings v. Suns -5 | Top | 117-119 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 50 m | Show |
ASA play on Phoenix Suns -5 vs Sacramento Kings, 9 PM ET - The Suns grade out below the Kings in most season long statistical categories, but they’ve played most of the season without their ‘big 3’ of Booker, Durant and Beal on the floor together. They are finally healthy so we are starting to see what this roster can potentially do. They are coming off 2 straight road wins over the Lakers and Blazers and now catch a Kings team playing their 5th straight road game. Sacramento is off a demoralizing last second loss to the Bucks when Dame Lillard hit a deep 3-pointer with no time on the clock. The big edge we like for the Suns in this game will be 3-point shooting. The Suns are 11th in the league in 3-point percentage (even with the injuries) at 37.4%. The Kings are second to last in the NBA in opponents 3PT% allowed. The Suns are also one of the best defensive rebounding teams in the league, so the Kings won’t get many second chance opportunities here. You can expect the Suns to steadily trend up as they become accustomed to playing with each other so tonight is a ‘buy low’ opportunity with Phoenix. |
|||||||
01-16-24 | Coyotes v. Flames OVER 6 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
#37/38 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 6 Goals - Arizona Coyotes at Calgary Flames, Tuesday at 9:07 PM ET - Great set-up for an over here. The Coyotes head to Calgary with plenty of confidence off a 6-0 win. However, Arizona also just got hammered 6-2 at home by these Flames. Something has to give here and we fully expect the Coyotes to be aggressive on the attack as they are out for revenge but they will again struggle to slow down Calgary. The Flames have consistently been involved in high-scoring games of late. Calgary is off a 3-1 win at Vegas but, prior to this, 6 of the last 9 Flames games had totaled at least 6 goals. Those 6 games averaged 8 goals each! The Coyotes have had 5 straight games (and 8 of last 11) total at least 6 goals! Prior to their 6-0 shellacking of the Wild at Minnesota, Arizona had allowed an average of 5 goals per game in their 5 most recent games. The goals should fly here with a strong effort from the revenge-minded Coyotes coupled with Arizona's struggles in keeping the puck out of their own net! The Coyotes are strong on the power play but weak on the penalty kill. Of course this helps lead to some extra scoring overall in Arizona's games. In terms of special teams play, the Flames lead the league in short-handed goals. Don't be surprised if special teams play helps the cause in this one as well as Arizona is one of the most penalized teams in the league. Calgary has scored 26 goals in 6 games and they come out strong here at home but the revenge-minded Coyotes keep this one interesting in what should be a back and forth high-scoring battle. Based on the recent trending for each club, we can't see either team finishing with less than 3 goals in this one given the above and this would translate to at least a 4-3 final. Over is our play here |
|||||||
01-16-24 | Purdue v. Indiana +10.5 | Top | 87-66 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 44 m | Show |
#618 ASA TOP PLAY ON Indiana +10.5 over Purdue, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Purdue has shown some serious vulnerability on the road this season. They have played 3 true road games this season losing 2 of those games @ Northwestern and @ Nebraska. Their only true road win was @ Maryland in a game the Terps hit only 33% of their shots overall, just 23% of their 3’s and made only 6 FT’s. Now they face their rival IU who is 9-1 at home with their only loss at Assembly Hall coming by 4 points vs Kansas in a game where the Hoosiers led for much of. IU has been very solid offensively at home hitting nearly 50% of their shots while scoring 77 PPG. They should be able to keep up in this one vs a Purdue defense that has allowed 78 PPG on the road this year. The Boilers defense has allowed at least 78 points in each of their last 3 games and in Big 10 play they are giving up an average of 76 PPG in their 6 Big 10 games this season. It will be tough for Purdue to pull away in this one. On the other end of the court the IU defense has been very good at home allowing just 68 PPG on 39% shooting. Only 3 of their 10 opponents have been able to top 70 points at Assembly Hall. Indiana topped Purdue here last year by 5 points as a 1.5 point favorite and now they are near a double digit dog just one year later. This is the largest home dog role for Indiana vs Purdue since the 2009 season. 11 of the last 15 meetings between these 2 rivals have resulted in single digit win margins and we expect another one here. Take the points with Indiana. |
|||||||
01-15-24 | Pacers +7.5 v. Jazz | Top | 105-132 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 31 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Indiana Pacers +7.5 at Utah Jazz, 9 PM ET - This line is grossly inflated with the Jazz current success and the fact that the Pacers are coming off a game in Denver last night. The Pacers gave extended minutes to their bench players yesterday so fatigue shouldn’t be a factor here. Utah has ripped off 5-straight wins, but they are coming off a big win over the Lakers and have two huge games on deck against the Warriors and Thunder. Looking at recent home games for the Jazz they were favored by -8.5-points against the 3-36 Pistons. Now they are laying nearly that same number against the 23-16 Pacers. Utah has been a solid home favorite this season with a 5-1 ATS record, but the Pacers are a profitable 13-9 ATS as an underdog this season. These two teams have similar strength of schedules yet the Pacers rank 2nd in offensive efficiency and 26th in DEFF compared to the Jazz who are 23rd in OEFF and 23 in defensive efficiency. Clearly the Bookmakers have over-adjusted this number so let's grab the value with Indiana over Utah. |
|||||||
01-15-24 | Iowa v. Minnesota -1.5 | Top | 86-77 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
#876 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota -1.5 over Iowa, Monday at 6 PM ET - We faded Minnesota on Friday and picked up a win as Indiana rolled at home to an easy win. Now we get a much improved Gopher team at home off a loss basically in a pick-em game vs Iowa. Meanwhile the Hawkeyes are off a huge home win over Nebraska scoring 94 points in the process. Iowa was in an ideal situation in that game catching the Huskers upsetting Purdue at home just a few days earlier. Iowa has been a completely different team away from home the last few seasons. This year they are 0-4 SU in true road game with an average margin of -16 points per game. If we go back to the start of last season they have played 15 true road games and won only 4 of those. The Hawkeyes average 95 PPG at home and only 72 PPG on the road, they shoot over 50% at home and just 43% on the road, and from beyond the arc they make 37% of their shot at home and 32% on the road. Minnesota is drastically improved from last season and they have only 1 home loss vs Missouri, a game the Gophers led by 20 in the 2nd half. Prior to their loss @ Indiana the Gophers had won 7 straight and they’ve been a huge money maker with a 14-2 ATS record this season. Minnesota is tough to guard with 5 players averaging double digit points including one of the top players in the Big 10, Dawson Garcia, averaging 17 PPG and 8 RPG. They rank in the top 30 nationally in eFG% and Minny is facing an Iowa defense that allows 77 PPG overall and 84 PPG on the road. The Hawks have a huge home game on deck vs Purdue so a look ahead is highly possible. We have this game power rated with Minnesota a 4 point home favorite and we’re getting them near pick-em. We like the Gophers in this one. |
|||||||
01-14-24 | Kings +5.5 v. Bucks | Top | 142-143 | Win | 100 | 17 h 52 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Sacramento Kings +5.5 or +5 at Milwaukee Bucks, 7 PM ET - We like the scheduling advantage for the Kings as they catch the Bucks off a big game last night against the Golden State Warriors. Milwaukee is also off a huge home win over the Celtics on Thursday night making this their 3rd game in four nights and the 2nd of of a back to back. The Bucks clearly are not unbeatable at home this season as they’ve lost recent home games to the Jazz and Pacers. Since the start of last season the Bucks are 50-14 SU at home with an average +/- of +6.3PPG. The Kings are rested and come into this game off a recent loss in Philadelphia. Prior to that loss the Kings had won 4 straight road games. Going back to the start of the 2022-23 season the Kings have the 4th best road record in the NBA and average +/- on the road of +1.7PPG. Milwaukee’s defense has been their Achilles heel this season as they give up 119.4PPG which is 24th most in the league. Sacramento is the 9th highest scoring team in the league and should put up plenty of points here to cover this short number. |
|||||||
01-14-24 | Packers v. Cowboys OVER 50.5 | Top | 48-32 | Win | 100 | 48 h 12 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 50.5 Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys, 4:30 PM ET - Dallas leads the NFL in scoring at 29.9PPG and has averaged 37.4PPG at home. The Cowboys have put up over 40+ points in four home games this season. The Cowboys have sixteen 40+ point games under head coach Mike McCarthy since 2020. Dallas should put up points against this Packer defense that is 27th in DVOA and give up 5.6YPP (20th). The Packers allow 128.3 yards per game (28th) and give up the 18th most passing yards per completion. Dallas and Dak Prescott have the best completion percentage in the NFL and average 258 passing yards per game which is 3rd most in the league. This Packer D looked much better in their last two games but that was against a Vikings team playing a rookie QB in his first start and a Bears team that wasn’t interested last week in the season finale. Prior to their last two games the Packers had given up 30 points to the Panthers, 34 to the Buccaneers and 24 to the Giants and NONE of those teams have an offense that compares to Dallas. In fact, the Packers Experted Plays Against defense in their last five games is one of the worst in the NFL and it came against a host of dead-beat quarterbacks. The Boys put up a poor showing in their last home game against the Lions and we expect an explosion this week against Green Bay. The Packers will score in this game too. The offense is as healthy as it’s been all season with a solid O-line that can slow the Cowboys pass rush and open holes for RB Jones. Packers QB Love has been outstanding this season and this team has no pressure whatsoever and can play loose. GBay has scored 20+ in 7 of their last eight games, 27 or more in four of those games. In the Packers two biggest games in recent weeks they put up 29 in Detroit and 27 against the Chiefs, two solid defenses comparable to the Cowboys. |
|||||||
01-13-24 | Pelicans v. Mavs OVER 231 | Top | 118-108 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 231 New Orleans Pelicans at Dallas Mavericks, 8:40 PM ET - The Pelicans are in a very tough scheduling situation playing their 2nd of a back-to-back and third game in four nights. Not to mention, last night’s game was in altitude in Denver. Dallas has been at home and is coming off a 128-124 win over the Knicks. They played without Luka Doncic in that game but it clearly didn’t hurt them offensively as they put up 128 points against the 10th adjusted ranked efficiency defense. Dating back to the start of last season the Pelicans have gone Over the total in 70.6% of their games when playing without rest. In those 17 games the Over has cashed by an average of +7.8PPG. The Pels have the 12th most efficient offense in the NBA and play at a league average pace. The Mavericks own the 8th most efficient offense in the NBA, rank 24th in DEFF (meaning they will give up points here) and also play at the 8th fastest pace in the league. In the two head-to-head meetings this season they have produced 241 and 260 total points. The bet here is OVER again. |
|||||||
01-13-24 | Dolphins v. Chiefs UNDER 44.5 | Top | 7-26 | Win | 100 | 65 h 47 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 44.5 Miami Dolphins at Kansas City Chiefs, 8 PM ET - The weather expected in Kansas City on Saturday night is going to be brutal. The forecast is calling for 0 degrees with a windchill of -18 below. Winds are expected to be 15mph and it’s going to be extremely hard for either team to throw the football. Not to mention these teams have not been great offensively at the end of the season. Kansas City has gone from averaging 29.2PPG a year ago to 21.8PPG this season which is essentially ‘average’ in the NFL. Last season the Chiefs averaged 1-point for every 13.9 yards gained which was 4th highest. This year it takes them on average 16.1 yards gained to score a point which ranks 21st in the league. KC is 9th in yards gained pe game and in Yards Per Play. They have scored 21 or less points in 8 of their last twelve games. What the Chiefs have done well this season is play defense. KC is allowing the 2nd fewest yards per game (289YPG), the 5th fewest yards per play (5.0) and 2nd fewest points per game at 17.3. Against a Dolphins team that wants to pass you better be able to defend the pass and the Chiefs do that well too. KC is 4th in passing yards per game allowed and 8th in completion percentage against. Kansas City also averages 3.4 sacks per game which is 2nd in the league. Teams have figured out how to scheme against the Dolphins offense as the Cowboys, Ravens and Bills have held them to 22, 19 and 14-points in their past three games. Miami averages 13.8 yards per point for the season but against those three previous opponents that number dips to 18.6YPPT, 5th worst in the NFL. The Dolphins average the most yards per game at 401YPG on the season but in their last three games they have put up just 341.7YPG. Miami’s defense is 10th in yards per game allowed, 12th in yards per play allowed and 6th against the run. In 8 of their last 10 games the Fish have allowed 21 or less points. These two teams met in Germany earlier this season with the Chiefs winning 21-14, producing 35-points. Miami managed 292 total yards, Kansas City had 267 yards. Miami averaged 5.0YPP, KC managed 4.8YPP. As long as this number is above 44 we will be Under. |
|||||||
01-13-24 | Dolphins v. Chiefs -4.5 | Top | 7-26 | Win | 100 | 28 h 2 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Kansas City Chiefs -4.5 vs Miami Dolphins, 8:15 PM ET - The Chiefs were favored by -2.5 points earlier this season when these two teams met in Germany so the adjustment to -4.5 in KC doesn’t seem like enough in our opinion. You’ve probably heard many experts talk about the Dolphins playing in cold weather and their poor record in adverse conditions. That certainly has some merit but isn’t the sole focus of our handicap. Miami has several key injuries, especially to a defense that has been exploited in recent weeks. They are thin on the D-line and at the linebacker position and it couldn’t come at a worse time. In the past two weeks this defense allowed 56-points to the Ravens and nearly 500 total yards of offense. Last week they gave up just 21-points to the Bills but that should have been much worse as Bills QB Allen threw two INT’s in the red zone. Buffalo averaged 6.1YPP and racked up 473 yards on the day. The other factor to consider here is the fact the Dolphins defense was on the field for 77 plays last week, so fatigue becomes an issue. Granted, this is not the same Chiefs team that we have witnessed in the past as the offense has seen a massive regression this season. But the defense has been one of the best in the league, ranking 7th in DVOA, 2nd in yards per game allowed 5th in yards per play and 2nd in points allowed per game. Kansas City is 37-13 SU at home since 2019 and Patrick Mahomes has been in this situation more times than we can count. The same can’t be said for Tua Tagovailoa who is making his first career playoff start. QB’s in this situation have covered just 32% of the time in the last 20+ seasons. Tua is also 0-4 when playing in below 40-degree temperatures and Saturday’s forecast is calling for a negative windchill. Miami as a team has dropped 10-straight games in temperatures below 40 degrees. We have not been sold on KC all season long but the situation warrants a bet on them at home here as a small favorite. |
|||||||
01-13-24 | Drake v. Southern Illinois +2.5 | Top | 76-58 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 18 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: #760 Southern Illinois +2.5 vs Drake, 8 PM ET - Drake off huge home win over Indiana State who is the best team in the MVC this year and should be flat for this road date against So. Illinois. Drake has played three true road games, all versus teams ranked lower than Southern Illinois and lost two of those games, one by 22-points to Belmont. The Bulldogs only true road win was at Valparaiso who is ranked outside top 300 per KenPom. SIU is a top 100 team that ranks in the top 50 in both offensive and defensive eFG%. The Salukis are 79th in offensive efficiency and 120th in DEFF. Southern Illinois is a very good 3-point shooting team at 38.9% (16th in the nation) and also defends the Arc well with 2nd lowest 3PT% against in the country at 26.1%. The Salukis are 9-1 SU at home this year with an average +/- of +16.1PPG and 20-5 SU since the start of last year. Southern is playing with revenge here as they lost to Drake in the conference tournament a year ago. In the regular season meeting on this court a year ago, SIU beat Drake 53-49. We call for another W this time around. |
|||||||
01-13-24 | San Diego State v. New Mexico -3.5 | Top | 70-88 | Win | 100 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: #622 New Mexico -3.5 over San Diego State, 2 PM ET - New Mexico is off a road loss @ UNLV by 10-points but should bounce back here at home against the Aztecs. In the game against UNLV the Lobos shot well at 49% for the game and were +8 in rebounds but turned it over 16 times. Those TO’s were very uncharacteristic for this New Mexico team that is 37th in turnover percentage on the season so don’t expect a sloppy performance at home on Saturday. New Mexico is very good at home in the Pit with a 8-0 SU record this year and an average margin of victory of +20.7PPG. All but one of those home wins have come by at least 9 points. Going back even further we find the Lobos are 23-4 SU at home since the start of last year and they beat this same San Diego St (final 4 team) team on road last year and lost by 2 at home. In the loss at home New Mexico blew a 13-point 2nd half lead. The Aztecs are a top 25 team yet are an underdog here. SDSU is on the road for the 2nd straight game after barely beating San Jose St on Tuesday who has a 7-9 record. San Deigo State is not a great shooting team overall at 45.1% which ranks 166th in the nation. They struggle from Deep with a 32.6 shooting percentage which is 232nd. New Mexico hits 46.7% of their FG attempts (88th) and gets plenty of attempts with the 17th fastest paced offense in college hoops. |
|||||||
01-12-24 | Blazers v. Wolves -14 | Top | 93-116 | Win | 100 | 16 h 22 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Minnesota Timberwolves -14 over the Portland Trailblazers, 8:10 PM ET - We don’t make a habit of laying double digits in the NBA but tonight we will make an exception. The Blazers are bad…really bad! In their last two games they’ve lost to the Knicks 84-112 and to OKC last night 77-139. This team is last in the NBA in offensive efficiency over their last 5 games and score just .980 points per possession in that span of games. Defensively they are better, but not by much as they allow 1.189PPP which ranks 20th in their last 5. They have the worst average point differential in the league at minus -21.4PPG in that same stretch of games. Portland is playing their 7th straight road game, 2nd of back-to-back nights, 3rd in four nights and 7th game in 12 days. The Blazers average +/- on the road this season is a negative -9.8PPG. Minnesota meanwhile is coming off a tough loss to the Celtics and also lost their most recent home game to the Pelicans. The Wolves have the 4th best home differential in the NBA at +9.7PPG and rely on a defense that is best in the NBA in terms of efficiency ratings. Given the circumstances we expect the T’Wolves to get a dominating home win here. |
|||||||
01-12-24 | Minnesota v. Indiana -4 | Top | 62-74 | Win | 100 | 15 h 56 m | Show |
#868 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Indiana -4 over Minnesota, Friday at 6:30 PM ET - Big home game for the Hoosiers coming off a road loss @ Rutgers earlier this week. This situation is similar to last Saturday when we were on Indiana at home vs Ohio State and picked up a win. IU is a near perfect 8-1 at home this season with their lone loss by 4 points vs Kansas, a game the Hoosiers led most of the way. They take on a Minnesota team that has an impressive 12-3 overall record but they’ve played one of the easiest schedules in the country (347th SOS out of 363 teams). The Gophers have played a grand total of ONE road game since December 3rd compared to 6 home games. That 1 road game they came from behind in the 2nd half to squeak by Michigan 73-71 in a game they shot nearly 50% from the field and over 40% from beyond the arc. That was also a win vs a Michigan team that is falling apart at the seams losers of 9 of their last 12 games and Minnesota was a 6.5 point dog in that game. Now IU laying only 3 in a crucial home tilt. The Hoosiers have won 7 straight at home vs Minnesota and the last time the Gophers were able to pull off a win at Assembly Hall was the 2011/12 season. We like Indiana to win and cover at home. |
|||||||
01-11-24 | Celtics +6 v. Bucks | Top | 102-135 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 58 m | Show |
ASA play on Boston Celtics +6 at Milwaukee Bucks, 7:30 PM ET - Something is clearly going on within the Bucks organization/locker room that we can’t figure out. Even though this team is 25-12 SU, this loaded roster should be better than it is. The Bucks are currently 21st in defensive efficiency after ranking 4th a season ago. The Celtics were 3rd in DEFF a year ago and rank 2nd this season allowing just 1.113PPP. That’s what separates these two teams as the C’s play defense and the Bucks don’t. Both teams average over 1.210 points per possession and rank 2nd and 3rd in offensive efficiency. The Celtics are coming off a game last night but that hasn’t mattered as they are 9-4 ATS dating back to the start of last season when playing without rest. They have a very deep roster and have beaten the Bucks 5 of the last six times they’ve played. Milwaukee was 24-18-2 ATS at home a year ago with an average +/- of +5.9PPG. The Celtics owned the best road point differential in the league last season at +2.9PPG. Boston has an average margin of victory on the road this season of +6.4PPG. Milwaukee at home is winning by an average +5.8PPG at home with a 7-11-1 ATS record on their home court. Grab the points with the Celtics unless they decide to sit starters. |
|||||||
01-11-24 | Old Dominion v. Georgia State -5.5 | Top | 70-77 | Win | 100 | 16 h 32 m | Show |
#750 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Georgia State -5.5 over Old Dominion, Thursday at 7 PM ET - We went against ODU last Saturday and came up with an easy win as Arkansas State won by 15. We’ll fade the Monarchs again on Thursday as they are playing their 3rd consecutive road game in a week span. ODU is 0-6 on the road this season losing by an average of 10 PPG and their defense is allowing 83 PPG away from home. They allowed 86 points last Thursday at Troy in a 13 point loss and then allowed 90 over the weekend vs Arkie State. The Monarchs rank 322nd in eFG% defense and 345th in 3 point FG% defense. That won’t cut it here vs a Georgia State team that is 4-1 at home and has scored at least 88 points in 4 of those 5 home games. The Panthers should have a nice advantage at the FT line as well with ODU allowing 21% of their opponents points to come from the charity stripe and GSU hitting 76% of their freebies on the season. The Monarchs continue to be overvalued covering only 3 of their 14 games this season and we project another spread loss here. Georgia State by double digits. |
|||||||
01-10-24 | Nuggets -6.5 v. Jazz | Top | 111-124 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 30 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Denver Nuggets -6.5 at Utah Jazz, 10 PM ET - Utah is coming off a tough East coast road trip and two huge upset wins of the 76ers and Bucks. The Jazz benefited from facing a 76ers team without Joel Embiid and a Bucks team without Lillard. Those two victories will have the Nuggets on high alert and focused for this road date in Utah. Denver continues to play outstanding with an 8-2 SU record their last 10 games with 6 of those W’s coming by 6+ points. The Nuggets have been favored by -7.5 or more points in four straight meetings with the Jazz and have covered 3 of 4. A key advantage in this game for Denver will be in the turnover department. Denver turns the ball over the 2nd fewest times per game at 12.2 on the season while the Jazz turn it over more than any team in the league at 16.4 per game. The Nuggets are also one of the best shooting teams in the NBA at 49.5% and the Jazz are 19th in opponents FG% against allowing 47.8%. Utah will have a tough time scoring here with the 25th worst shooting statistics in the league (46.2%) going up against a Denver D that holds opponents to 46.3% (10th). The Nuggets have won 6 straight road games, and we like them to get a win by a double-digit margin here. |
|||||||
01-10-24 | Murray State v. Missouri State -4 | Top | 77-53 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
#718 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Missouri State -4 over Murray State, Wednesday at 8 PM ET - Missouri State is in a must win spot coming off 2 straight losses and with 2 road game on deck after this one. The Bears lost by 2 points here at home last week vs Northern Iowa (first home loss of the season) missing a 3 pointer at the buzzer that would have given them the win. After that loss they were flat as a pancake @ Bradley putting up their worst performance of the year losing by 26 as a 5 point underdog. Missouri State head coach Ford called it an “unacceptable” effort so you can bet the Bears will be all in effort wise in this one. Murray State steps in off 3 straight wins and will be playing their 2nd of back to back road games after upsetting Evansville on the road over the weekend. The Aces played without their leading scorer in that game and the prior to Murray State wins were both at home. Prior to that road win the Racers were 0-6 SU in road/neutral games this season. They had also lost 9 of their previous 10 games prior to their current 3 game winning streak. Because of that mini streak we’re getting value with Missouri State laying a small number at home. The Bears have a HUGE edge defensively in this game. They rank 14th nationally in eFG% defense and 12th in 3 point defense allowing opponents to hit only 27% of their shots from deep. Murray State, on the other hand, ranks outside the top 300 in eFG% defense, 2 point FG% defense, and 3 point FG% defense. These 2 split their games last year with the home team winning each. Murray State squeaked by at home by 3 points but when they traveled to Springfield the Bears rolled by 15 points. Expect a huge effort from Missouri State and an easy win. |
|||||||
01-09-24 | Senators v. Flames -122 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 14 h 5 m | Show |
#18 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Calgary Flames (-130) over Ottawa Senators, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - The Senators are struggling overall and have struggled on the road this season. Ottawa enters this game having lost 10 of 13 games. They also have lost 11 of 15 games on the road this season. The Flames, on the other hand, have turned things around since goalie Jacob Markstrom came back. He was excellent in a recent road loss at Philadelphia and that tight loss was preceded by a stretch in which Calgary won 6 of 8 games. The Flames enter this game on a 3-1 run last 4 home games and they are certainly happy to be back home in Alberta after their road trip ended with a couple tight losses. This is the perfect spot for a Calgary bounce back against a team that is struggling and has proven to be road-adverse this season. The Flames have allowed just 2.4 goals per game in their last 10 games. The Senators have allowed 4.3 goals in the last 14 games! Also, Calgary is one of the top teams in the NHL for short-handed goals and their penalty kill is much stronger than that of the Santors. In fact, Ottawa is dead last on the penalty kill in the NHL this season. Special teams play and the home/road dichotomy plus the goalie and defensive edges all belong to the host in this one. Looks like a home blowout is on the way in this one! Home team's money line is our play here. |
|||||||
01-09-24 | Texas v. Cincinnati -5 | Top | 74-73 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 57 m | Show |
#606 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cincinnati -5 over Texas, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Unranked home team (Cincinnati) favored over a ranked road game (Texas #25) is a situation where we often look at the home team. First of all, the Longhorns should not be ranked period. They are 11-3 on the season, they’ve played the 310th most difficult SOS and the Horns have beaten ONE team ranked inside the top 130 this season (beat LSU who is ranked 83rd per KenPom). On top of that, Texas has played one true road game this season and lost by 21 points @ Marquette in that one. The Bearcats have played the tougher schedule and have the better record at 12-2. Their only losses are vs Dayton and Xavier both ranked in the top 40. Cincy has some nice momentum after a win @ BYU on Saturday (top 10 team per KenPom) and they have won 25 of their last 28 games at Fifth Third Arena including 9-0 this year with all wins by double digits. The Horns have been overvalued all season long (4-10 ATS) and they are facing a Cincinnati defense that ranks in the top 40 in both defensive efficiency and eFG% allowed. The Bearcats should also have a nice edge on the glass ranking 2nd in the nation in defensive rebounding and 9th in offensive rebounding. Lay it with Cincinnati. |
|||||||
01-08-24 | Washington +5 v. Michigan | Top | 13-34 | Loss | -113 | 66 h 49 m | Show |
#287 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington +4.5 over Michigan, Monday at 7:30 PM ET - Washington is a perfect 3-0 SU as an underdog this year with outright wins over Texas, Oregon, and Oregon State in that role. Dating back to the beginning of last year, the Huskies are 5-0 SU as an underdog. We think they have a great shot to upset Michigan on Monday and if they do lose, we expect it to be close and were getting +4.5 as a buffer. Nobody has been able to stop Washington’s passing game this season (#1 in the nation averaging 358 YPG through the air) and we don’t think Michigan will be any different. While the Wolverines defense has fantastic numbers, the fact is they’ve played a number of very weak offenses this year with 8 of the 13 offenses they faced during the regular season ranked outside the top 100. They’ve only faced 2 passing offenses ranked inside the top 50, Maryland (21st) and Ohio State (22nd), and both of those teams gave the Michigan defense problems throwing for 247 and 271 yards respectively in 2 close games (both decided by a TD or less). Now they face the best passing offense in the nation and the key for Washington will be keeping QB Penix upright which we think they’ll do. The Huskies offensive line has allowed a grand total of 11 sacks the entire season (4th best in the nation) and didn’t allow a single sack vs a very good Texas defensive front last week. Michigan was able to generate massive pressure on Bama QB Milroe last week, however the Crimson Tide offensive line was a liability all season long ranking 125th in sacks per game allowed so that wasn’t surprising. Even with that pressure, Alabama was still able to push Michigan to OT before losing in semi finals. Washington doesn’t have great defensive numbers but their strength is vs the run (41st nationally) so they match up well with the Wolverines offense. Bottom line is, we think Washington has a great shot to win this game and if they lose we’re getting above key numbers 3 & 4 so also a decent chance to win in that situation as well. Take the points. |
|||||||
01-08-24 | Thunder -11 v. Wizards | Top | 136-128 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 30 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Oklahoma City Thunder -11 or 11.5 at Washington Wizards, 7 PM ET - Rarely will you find us on a double-digit road favorite but there are times you have to make exceptions to the rules which is the case tonight. Oklahoma City Thunder is an elite team in the NBA at 23-11 SU and a serious contender in the Western Conference. Washington is a dumpster fire at 6-29 SU and expect a roster shakeup before the trade deadline. OKC has lost two straight on the road and will bounce back here after a couple days of rest. The Thunder have the 2nd best average Margin of Victory on the road this season at +7.2PPG. The have the #1 defensive efficiency rating on the road allowing 1.095 points per possession and rank 9th in OEFF. Washington has the WORST average road differential in the NBA at minus -12PPG. They rate 24th in offensive efficiency and 30th or last in DEFF. The Thunder are the 2nd best overall shooting team in the NBA and the Wiz are 29th in overall FG% defense. OKC is 1st in 3PT% offense and the Wizards are 23rd in defending the 3-point line. With Oklahoma City off a pair of losses we expect them to be focused here with a big road effort. |
|||||||
01-07-24 | Bears +3 v. Packers | Top | 9-17 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 44 m | Show |
#463 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Chicago Bears +3 over Green Bay Packers, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - Chicago is playing by far their best football of the season winning 5 of their last 7 games with an ATS record of 6-1-1 their last 8. While they can’t make the playoffs, they’d like nothing more than to end their 9 game losing streak vs Green Bay and knock them out of the playoffs. This young Green Bay team has all the pressure here as a win puts them in the post season while a loss limits their chances significantly. Unlike Chicago, the Packers were trending down heading into last weekend’s win over Minnesota who was playing with their 4th string QB Hall. That one data point is not changing our opinion. Leading into that game the Packers had lost to the NYG with DeVito playing QB, were smoked at home by an average Tampa Bay team, and needed a last second FG to beat a 2-14 Carolina team. This is a bad match up for Green Bay’s defense. They rank 28th vs the run and they are facing a Chicago offense that has a mobile QB and the 2nd best running attack in the NFL. Bear’s QB Fields is playing at a high level over his last nine starts with a QB Rating of 87.5 to go along with 1,838 yards passing, 13 TDs, and 521 yards rushing. The defense has been top level allowing 20 points or less in 6 of their last 7 games and they’ve risen to 12th in total defense after being near the bottom of the league a few months ago. Chicago’s only losses since early November were by 3 points @ Cleveland and a loss @ Detroit in a game they led by 12 points with less than 4:00 remaining in the game. They have no pressure here and will do everything they can to beat this must win Green Bay team. And we all know must win doesn’t mean will win. In fact, Since 1990, eliminated teams playing teams that need to win to keep their playoff hopes alive over the final two weeks of the regular season have gone 100-64-4 (61.0%) against the spread (ATS). We give the Bears a great shot at the outright win here so we’ll grab the points. |
|||||||
01-06-24 | Ohio State v. Indiana +1.5 | Top | 65-71 | Win | 100 | 18 h 54 m | Show |
#768 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Indiana +1.5 over Ohio State, Saturday at 8 PM ET - Like this spot for the Hoosiers coming off a road loss on Wednesday night @ Nebraska. Not a bad loss by any means vs a Husker team that is 12-2 on the season and playing at a high level. We now get Indiana at home as an underdog vs an OSU team that has played a fairly weak slate thus far. The Buckeyes have played 1 true road game this year in their 14 games and they lost that game @ Penn State who KenPom has ranked as the only Big 10 team ranked outside the top 100. The Buckeyes have had back to back down to the wire wins vs West Virginia (the lowest rated team in the Big 12) with OSU winning in OT and then on Wednesday they struggled to get by Rutgers (won by 4) the 2nd lowest rated team in the Big 10. The Hoosiers have only 1 loss at home this year and that was by 4 points vs a Kansas team ranked #2 in the country. In that game IU led by as many as 13 points in the 2nd half and trailed for less than 4:00 minutes the entire game. Indiana is a very good shooting game ranking 31st nationally in FG% and they have been even better at home putting up 78 PPG on over 50% shooting. OSU has a solid 12-2 record but we mentioned their SOS which is more than 100 spots lower than Indiana and the Bucks have won only 1 of their last 11 Big 10 road games dating back to the start of last season. The Hoosier are a home dog to a team they beat by 16 here at Assembly Hall last season as a 5 point favorite. IU should be favored in this game but we’re getting a solid value play with the Hoosiers coming off a loss vs an OSU team that isn’t as good as their record might indicate. Indiana is the play. |
|||||||
01-05-24 | Magic +9.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 122-120 | Win | 100 | 7 h 2 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Orlando Magic +9.5 at Denver Nuggets, 9 PM ET - This is a great spot to fade the Nuggets and back the Magic. Denver is off a huge last second win last night in Golden State and will have a tough time getting back up for the Magic tonight. The Nuggets came back from 18-points down in the final 7-minutes to win and expended a ton of energy in that comeback win. Orlando is rested and coming off a most recent loss in Sacramento by 3-points in OT. The Magic have lost 3 straight road games at the Kings, Warriors and Suns. They were plus +6-points against the Kings and Suns and catch an inflated number here. Not only are the Nuggets playing the second night of a back to back but they are also playing their 5th game in nine days. Denver has a winning record of 11-9 ATS when playing without rest but their average margin of victory is only +1.2PPG. In their last 8 road games the Magic have just 2 losses by more than 9-points. Easy call here with the Underdog. |
|||||||
01-04-24 | Nuggets v. Warriors +3 | Top | 130-127 | Push | 0 | 26 h 43 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors +3 vs Denver Nuggets, 10 PM ET - This is a quick rematch between these two teams as they recently met in Denver on Christmas Day. There was some controversy after the game as Warriors coach Steve Kerr had issues with Nuggets Center Jokic attempting 18 free throws by himself. That game went down to the wire with the Nuggets holding on for a home win by 6-points as a -7.5-point favorite. With that said this line should be a pick’em based off the number of the previous meeting. This has been a tightly contested series with 7 of the last eight meetings all decided by 6-points or less. The Warriors are coming off a win at home over the Magic and the encouraging news for the Warriors is that Klay Thompson is starting to find his stroke again. Thompson was 6 of 11 against the Magic and is a huge factor in the Warriors offense. In the game against the Nuggets he was 3 of 12 from the field. The Warriors are the best offensive rebounding team in the NBA and the Nuggets allow the 17th most. Golden State has a positive home point differential and is 9-6 SU on their home court with an impressive win over the Celtics recently. Denver has won 5 straight on the road but those W’s didn’t come against great competition (Hornets, Nets, Raptors, Bulls, Hawks). Grab the points with GST. |
|||||||
01-04-24 | Minnesota v. Michigan -6 | Top | 73-71 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 47 m | Show |
#802 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Michigan -6 over Minnesota, Thursday at 9 PM ET - We’re getting Michigan at the bottom of the market so to speak, laying only 6 points. Last year the Wolverines were favored by 12.5 at home vs Minnesota so some solid value here. The reason Michigan is laying a low number here is they’ve lost 2 straight and 5 of their last 7. However, all of those 5 losses were vs top 100 teams (Oregon, Indiana, Texas Tech, Florida, and McNeese State) and 3 of those 5 were by 3 points or fewer or in OT. Their most recent loss was at home vs a very good McNeese State team and don’t let the name fool you. They are very good and actually rated higher than tonight’s opponent, Minnesota, per KenPom. To put this point spread perspective, the Wolverines were favored by 10.5 last Friday vs McNeese State and now they are favored by just 6 (opening number) vs a Minnesota team who is ranked lower than McNeese as we discussed. This is a must win at home for Michigan as they have 2 road games following this game. Tough competition has been the theme for Michigan this year as they’ve played a very tough schedule (22nd SOS) which has a lot to do with their 6-7 record. They have solid top 100 wins over St John’s, Iowa, and Stanford this season. Minnesota has a better record, but only 1 top 100 win at home vs Nebraska. The Gophs have played a brutally easy schedule (358th SOS) and they’ve been at home for a full month. Only 2 of their 13 games this season have been road games (San Francisco & Ohio State) and the Gophers lost both of those games by double digits. Both teams have shot the ball very well (both top 25 in eFG%) but Michigan has only faced one defense ranked outside the top 250 in efficiency and 6 defenses ranked in the top 100. Compare that to the Gophers who’ve already faced 8 defenses ranked outside the top 250 on the season which is 62% of their games on the year. We like the home team in must win mode. |
|||||||
01-03-24 | Thunder v. Hawks +2 | Top | 138-141 | Win | 100 | 12 h 0 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Atlanta Hawks +2 vs Oklahoma City Thunder, 7:40 PM ET - The Thunder are in a tough scheduling situation here after coming off a huge game against the Boston Celtics last night. Not only that, but they are also playing their 3rd game in four nights and 6th game in nine days. Fatigue is certainly going to be a factor in Atlanta where the Hawks are home and rested. Atlanta is 1-4 SU their last five games but did win their most recent game in Washington. The Hawks have Jalen Johnson back in the starting lineup and now become a deeper team. We are expecting the Hawks to get plenty of extra field goal attempts with the 2nd best offensive rebounding team going up against an OKC team that 29th in defensive rebounding. The Thunder are 28th in rebounding overall while the Hawks are 19th. The Thunder put everything into their game last night against the league leading Celtics and will have little left in the tank to face the rested Hawks. |
|||||||
01-03-24 | Loyola-Chicago v. St. Louis -2 | Top | 80-73 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
#670 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* St Louis -2 over Loyola Chicago, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - The Billikens have one of the better home court advantages on the Atlantic 10. They are 6-1 this year in Chaifetz Arena with their only loss coming by 5 points vs a Utah State team that has a record of 13-1 on the season. Going back further, St Louis has won 30 of their last 35 home games. They played only 2 home games in December and beat Hofstra and Louisiana Tech, both rated higher than this Loyola team. With this line set at pick-em (opening number) we just need a win here from the Billikens. St Louis is coming off a loss @ NC State on December 20th and they’ve had 2 weeks off to get rested and ready. Loyola has the better record in this game, 8-5 compared to 7-6 for STL, however they’ve played one of the easiest schedules in the country. The Ramblers strength of schedule is outside the top 300 and 5 of their 8 wins have come vs teams rated outside the top 300. They’ve played only 2 true road games this season and lost both by double digits @ Tulsa and @ South Florida, 2 teams rated very similar to this St Louis team. While Loyola has played only 3 games all season vs teams ranked inside the top 100, St Louis has played 5 of their last 6 games vs teams ranked inside the top 100. One key advantage for the host in this game is the Billikens 3 point shooting (53rd nationally in 3 point FG%) vs a Loyola defense ranked 277th defending the arc. At home STL’s shooting gets even better where they’ve hit 42% of their triples. They also get to the line a lot and make them when they get there (76% from the FT line). St Louis was favored by -11 at home vs Loyola last year (won by 19) and now we’re getting just slightly above a pick-em. Value on St Louis at home in this one. |
|||||||
01-02-24 | New Mexico v. Colorado State -3 | Top | 68-76 | Win | 100 | 15 h 11 m | Show |
#652 ASA TOP PLAY ON Colorado State -3 or -3.5 over New Mexico, Tuesday at 10:30 PM ET - CSU comes into this game with a 12-1 SU record with their only loss coming by 3 points vs St Mary’s. In that loss the Rams played without 2 key starters, Lake & Strong, and still nearly beat a solid STM team. Lake has since returned and while Strong is still out, the Rams have adapted having now played 5 games with him on the shelf. They have only 1 loss despite playing a very tough schedule (53rd SOS) and they have 5 wins vs top 100 teams including wins over Colorado and Creighton (top 25 teams). CSU is a fantastic offensive team averaging 85 PPG while ranking 3rd nationally in eFG%, 11th in offensive efficiency and they make 77% of the FT’s. They’ve been held under 80 points only twice this season! New Mexico is also 12-1 on the year but overvalued in our opinion. The Lobos have played a much easier schedule (197th SOS) and this will be just their 3rd road game of the season. Their 2 roadies weren’t overly impressive as they lost big @ St Mary’s and barely beat a NM State, who has a current 6-9 record, on the road by 1 point. New Mexico relies heavily on creating turnovers which won’t work in this one vs a veteran CSU team that turns the ball over just 13.9% of the time (16th nationally). Because of that aggressiveness on defense, the Lobos also foul a lot which will be a problem in this game vs a very good FT shooting team. These 2 MWC teams split last year with each home team winning. The Lobos have lost 5 straight @ Colorado State and we’ll call for 6 in a row tonight. The Rams win and cover at home. |
|||||||
01-02-24 | Celtics v. Thunder +3.5 | Top | 123-127 | Win | 100 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Oklahoma City Thunder +3.5 vs Boston Celtics, 8:10 PM ET - Both teams come into this game red hot with the Celtics on an 11-1 SU run their last twelve games while OKC is 7-1 SU their last eight games. Boston has the 2nd best average margin of victory at +10.2PPG but the Thunder are 3rd at +7.7PPG and OKC has faced a slightly tougher schedule. On a neutral court we would have Boston favored by -3.1 points, so the value is clearly on the Thunder at home where they are 13-5 SU this season +8.4PPG. Looking at recent Thunder games and we see they were recently favored by 2-points at home over Minnesota and minus -6.5-points home vs. the Clippers. The Celtics were recently favored by 4 and 5-points at the Lakers and Clippers and should not be laying points here. Boston lives and dies with the 3-ball as they rank 1st in the NBA in attempts and makes but rank 11th in 3PT%. OKC defends the 3-point line well, ranking 10th in 3PT% defense. The Thunder are the leagues best 3-point shooting team in the NBA and the Celtics are 14th in defending the Arc. That 3-point advantage will be key tonight in what shapes up to be a 1-possession game either way. Grab the points. |
|||||||
01-01-24 | Alabama v. Michigan OVER 44.5 | Top | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 19 h 60 m | Show |
#279/280 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 44.5 Points – Michigan vs Alabama, Monday at 5 PM ET - Weather looks perfect for scoring here with temps in the 60’s, no precipitation and light winds. We look for both offenses to have solid success in this game. Bama’s offense has been simply outstanding down the stretch averaging 42 PPG and 453 YPG over their last 5 games following their bye week. They are 7-1-1 to the Over in their last 9 games. Since benching QB Milroe in the USF game and then bringing him back the following week, the Crimson Tide have scored at least 24 points in every game (10 straight). In fact, they’ve been held under 24 just once this season and that was @ USF with Milroe on the bench. They averaged 35 PPG on the season and after some early season struggles they’ve morphed into one of the better offensive teams in the country. Michigan’s defense has great numbers for sure. But who have the played that has a high level offense? The Wolverines have faced a grand total of ONE offense currently ranked in the top 40 and that was vs Ohio State who barely ranked inside the top 40 (37th) and the Bucks scored 24 points in that game. A whopping 8 of Michigan’s 13 opponents ended the year ranked outside the top 100 in total offense. On the other side of the ball, Michigan’s offense scored at least 30 points in 11 of their 13 games. They were held under 30 by Iowa (26 points scored) and Penn State (24 points scored) who are both top 5 defensive teams nationally. Last year’s semi final games were both very high scoring totaling 96 and 83 points. Since the 2017/18 season, there have been 12 semi final games and 9 of those have reached at least 45 points (today’s total) with the average points scored in those games being 64 total points. We project both teams to get to at least 21 points which nearly puts us at this number already. Easy Over here in the Michigan vs Alabama game. |
|||||||
12-31-23 | Raiders v. Colts -4 | Top | 20-23 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 7 m | Show |
#114 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Indianapolis Colts -4 over Las Vegas Raiders, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Las Vegas is coming off a HUGE win over their biggest rivals the Kansas City Chiefs last week in Arrowhead Stadium. The Raiders interim coach Antonio Pierce was in tears after the game and the team acted as if they had just won the Division. If we break this game down, we find the Raiders had just 205 total yards of offense and averaged 4.1YPP. They benefited from a fumble recovery for a TD and had a pick’6 for a touchdown. Not to mention, this Chiefs team is not the Chiefs team of years past so that win isn’t nearly as impressive as it looks like. Don’t be fooled by the Raiders QB O’Connell and his last two wins. If you take the games he’s played in and all the other QB’s in the league in that same time period, he rates 40 out of 40 in EPA+completion percentage statistics. We also get the Colts in a great spot here at home off an embarrassing loss in Atlanta last week. Indianapolis was held to less than 100 rushing yards by a solid Falcons rush defense that is 9th best in stopping the run. That won’t be the case this week as the Raiders are 21st in the league, allowing 4.3-Yards Per Rush and give up 122RYPG on the season. The Colts need to establish a running game to help relieve the pressure on QB Minshew and open up the play action pass. Indianapolis is 13th in rushing yards per game at 113.2 RYPG. The Colts have some deficiencies defensively, but the Raiders anemic offense won’t be able to take advantage of that edge. Las Vegas is 29th in total yards gained per game, 27th in yards per play gained, 31st in rushing and 23rd in passing. Las Vegas has struggled on the road this year with a 1-point win in their season opener in Denver and the win last week which wasn’t deserved last week. In between those two road wins they have losses by 28, 7, 18, 22 and 17-points. The Colts have won 5 of their last seven games and will get a double-digit win in this one. |
|||||||
12-30-23 | Lions v. Cowboys -5 | Top | 19-20 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 49 m | Show |
#104 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Dallas -5 or -5.5 over Detroit, Saturday at 8 PM ET - Great spot for Dallas in this one. Detroit clinched their first division title in 30 years last week beating Minnesota so they are in. After emotional road win last week, the Lions back on road for the 4th in 5 weeks. This is a huge game for Dallas as they sit 1 game behind the Eagles in the NFC East. A must win here would give them a shot at the division crown and a possible #2 seed while a loss would most likely send the Cowboys to the #5 seed and a road game to open the playoffs. Dallas is off 2 road losses vs 2 of the top teams in the AFC @ Buffalo and @ Miami. Last week they led Miami late before Fins made FG as time expired to win 22-20. The Boys are back home where they are 7-0 and have outscored their opponents by 171 points (+24 PPG). They’ve now won 16 straight home games and their spread mark in those games is 13-3. They are also very tough off a loss with an 8-1 ATS record. Dallas averages 40 PPG at home and they should have a field day vs a Detroit defense that has been trending down for a few months allowing an average of 27 PPG over their last 9. The Lions stats away from home drop off drastically while the Dallas home numbers are great. Dallas at home vs Detroit on the road…Dallas +24 PPG at home – Detroit -1 PPG on road, Dallas +143 YPG at home – Detroit +26 YPG on road, Dallas +1.1 YPP at home – Detroit -0.3 YPP on road. We like the Cowboys to win by at least a TD here. |
|||||||
12-30-23 | Knicks v. Pacers -4.5 | Top | 126-140 | Win | 100 | 6 h 1 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* #572 Indiana Pacers -4.5 vs NY Knicks, 7:10 PM ET - We like the Pacers here as the Knicks are in a tough scheduling situation with this being the second night of a back-to-back. Not only are they playing without rest, but this will also be their 3rd game in four days, 4th game in six days. Now they must face the second fastest paced team in the NBA who is rested and at home. Indiana played extremely well going into the in-season tournament but came back to Earth immediately afterwards. They have seemed to have found their groove again with a pair of wins on the road at Houston and Chicago. New York is 9-9 SU on the road this season with a negative overall differential. Indiana is 8-7 SU at home with an average +/- of plus 6.7PPG. The key advantage the Pacers have is their transition offense which averages the most fastbreak points in the league compared to a Knicks team that allows the 20th most. Lay it with Indiana. |
|||||||
12-30-23 | Toledo v. Wyoming -3.5 | Top | 15-16 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 2 m | Show |
#272 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Wyoming -3.5 over Toledo, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET - The Cowboys have big time motivation here to win one for the gipper so to speak. Wyoming’s head coach, Craig Bohl (10 years at Wyoming), has made it known he will retire after this game and he is very well liked by his players so look for a supreme effort from the Cowboys. It looks like they will have nearly everyone available here as well with the exception of 1 starting offensive lineman and 1 defensive back. Toledo, on the other hand, has lost some key parts, especially on offense, where starting QB Finn (2,600 yards passing & 560 yards rushing) has already transferred to Baylor and starting RB Boone (1400 yards rushing) is in the portal as well. Not to mention Toledo head coach Candle was rumored as a potential HC at a number of other programs and seems to be every season which has been a distraction. Speaking of Candle, he’s been a terrible bowl coach which might have something to do with his name coming up each year for openings at this time of year. Candle is 1-4 SU & 0-5 ATS his last 5 bowl games and Toledo was favored in 4 of those games. On top of that, the MAC was a terrible conference this season which led to Toledo having a strength of schedule ranking of 130th. The MAC bowl game blunders are also well documented as the conference has a SU bowl record of 14-55 their last 69 post season games. Rockets back up QB Gleason has some experience but this team relies heavily on the run (11th in rushing YPG) and he is not even in the same stratosphere at Finn when it comes to running the ball. This team has basically lost 2,000 yards on the ground to the transfer portal which will be nearly impossible to overcome here. The Rockets overall defensive stats look impressive but they didn’t face a single team in MAC play that was ranked higher than 79th in total offense and 7 of their conference opponents ranked 100th or lower in total offense. Wyoming played the much tougher schedule and beat solid bowl non-conference teams Texas Tech and Appalachian State. Veteran Wyoming QB Peasley (2 year starter) had a solid season with 20 TD’s and just 5 interceptions and led the Cowboys to 84 points over their final 2 games. Wyoming is 6-1-1 ATS their last 8 bowl games and we like them to win and cover this one. |
|||||||
12-30-23 | Creighton v. Marquette OVER 150 | Top | 67-72 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 42 m | Show |
#627/628 ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 150 Points – Creighton vs Marquette, Saturday at 2 PM ET - Two of the top offensive teams in the country facing off here and we expect a shootout on the scoreboard. Both rank in the top 30 nationally in offensive efficiency with Creighton averaging 1.16 adjusted PPP and Marquette 1.15. Creighton ranks 4th in the nation in eFG% and Marquette is in the top 45. The Blue Jays average 83 PPG but that moves up to 84 PPG on the road so no drop off whatsoever. The Golden Eagles step in averaging 78.5 PPG but at home they are much more comfortable offensively averaging 87 PPG on over 50% shooting. Creighton has scored at least 79 points in 9 of their 12 games this season and Marquette has scored at least 75 points in 8 of their 13 games. The Eagles like to play fast ranking in the top 100 in pace. Creighton is middle of the pack in pace, however, they’ve played mainly slow paced teams this year with the exception of 2. In their 2 games vs teams ranked inside the top 100 in pace (Bama & Iowa), they totaled 176 and 167 points. We expect plenty of possessions in this game with the offenses in control. Over is the call. |
|||||||
12-29-23 | Hornets v. Suns UNDER 231.5 | Top | 119-133 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 231.5 Charlotte Hornets at Phoenix Suns, 9:10 PM ET - Charlotte is coming off a game last night and gave up 133 to the Lakers. They have given up some big numbers recently against the Lakers, Pacers and 76ers but we don’t expect that tonight in Phoenix. The three teams previously mentioned are faster paced teams ranking 13th or better but the Suns are the 5th slowest team in the NBA. Phoenix is also an average team in terms of offensive efficiency at 1.166-points per possession. Charlotte doesn’t play fast either (without Ball in the lineup) ranking 17th in pace this season overall and they’ve been slower yet in their last five games at 97.7 possessions per game. The Hornets are struggling offensively having scored 114 or less points in 9 straight games and 104 or less in 5 of nine. The Suns had an outlier offensive game last time out when they put up 129 against the Rockets. Prior to that they had scored 114 or less in 7 of their last nine games. We aren’t expecting many points in this game and will BET UNDER. |
|||||||
12-29-23 | East Tennessee State v. East Carolina -8 | Top | 86-70 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
#850 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* East Carolina -8 over East Tennessee State, Friday at 7 PM ET - ETSU is one of the worst offensive teams in the country. They are a bad shooting team making just 39% of their shots on the year (352nd) and they hit only 30% of their triples so far this season (308th). They have one player in their rotation that has hit better than 42% of their shots this season and only 2 players that have made more than 32% of their 3’s. On the road it’s worse. They have a 1-5 SU record away from home and they are averaging only 63 PPG on the road while making 38% of their FG attempts. They are facing an ECU team that has 7 wins at home this season while averaging 77 PPG in their own arena. The Pirates do have 3 losses at home this season but 2 of those came with 2nd leading scorer and top rebounder Johnson out with an injury. Their only loss at home while at full strength was vs South Carolina and that was a tight loss 68-62, a game ECU led with less than 4:00 minutes remaining. Their only other loss since November was vs Florida and that was another close one losing 70-65. The Pirates should have a nice advantage at the charity stripe as they get to the line often (95th in percentage of points from the FT line) and ETSU fouls a lot averaging 21 fouls per game (29th most in the nation). ECU has 80% of their minutes back from last season and they’ve added 2 key transfers from Kansas & LSU. ETSU has won only 9 of their last 35 road games and we like the Pirates to roll at home in this one. |
|||||||
12-29-23 | Memphis v. Iowa State OVER 57 | Top | 36-26 | Win | 100 | 18 h 54 m | Show |
#261/262 ASA TOP PLAY ON Over 57 or 57.5 Points – Memphis vs Iowa State, Friday at 3:30 PM ET - This is a home game for Memphis. The Tigers offense was among the best in college football all season long. They averaged 40 PPG on the season (7th nationally) and at home they put up 43 PPG. They’ll be facing an ISU defense that is down this year compared to previous seasons. The Cyclones rank outside the top 40 in total defense after ranking 2nd in that stat last season and 8th the year before. ISU will also be missing a few key contributors in the secondary which could be a problem vs a Memphis pass offense that ranks 13th in the nation averaging more than 300 yards through the air. On the other side, the Iowa State offense was humming down the stretch putting up at least 30 points in 4 of their last 6 games. On Friday they are facing a Memphis defense that has been poor all season. The Tigers rank outside the top 100 in total defense, YPP allowed, rushing defense, and pass defense. They are also allowing 29 PPG on the season and allowed at least 30 points in 7 of their 12 games this season. The only FBS teams that didn’t reach 30 points on this Memphis defense were Temple, UAB, Arkansas State, and Navy and 3 of those 4 are ranked outside the top 70 in total offense. This will be the 2nd worst statistical defense ISU will play this season and the Cyclones averaged 34 PPG vs the 4 lowest rated defenses they faced this year. Both teams will have to keep up on the scoreboard here and we expect a shootout in Memphis. |
|||||||
12-28-23 | Heat v. Warriors -3.5 | Top | 114-102 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -3.5 vs. Miami Heat, 10:10 PM ET - The Warriors are playing better of late with wins in 5 of their last six games. The lone loss in that stretch was their most recent game on Christmas Day in Denver. Golden State has won 8 straight at home including an impressive win over the Boston Celtics. The Warriors last five games numbers are significantly better than their overall numbers on the season. In their last five games they have an offensive efficiency rating of 1.237-points per possession and a DEFF of 1.167PPP. Miami has some solid road numbers including a 9-6 SU record and a +2.8PPG differential. The Heat though have played the 27th easiest schedule to date compared to the Warriors who have faced the 3rd toughest. Going back to the start of last season, the Warriors are 36-25 ATS at home with an average margin of victory of +6.1PPG. Miami is off a big upset win in Philly on Christmas Day and now travels across the country to face a motivated Warriors team as Miami won the most recent meeting last season so this is a revenge spot for the Warriors. Lay the short number. |
|||||||
12-28-23 | UCLA v. Oregon State UNDER 128.5 | Top | 69-62 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
#729/730 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 128.5 Points – UCLA vs Oregon State, Thursday at 10 PM ET - The defenses for each of these teams will be the best 2 units on the floor. Both rank in the to 50 in FG% allowed and they both allow only 30% from beyond the arc. UCLA is allowing only 62 PPG (14th best nationally) despite already facing 4 teams ranked in the top 35 in the country in offensive efficiency. Oregon State is allowing 69 PPG but 3 of their games have gone to OT and 2 went to double OT so those numbers are higher than they should be. The Beavers have held 4 of their last 5 opponents to 65 points or less. These 2 offenses have struggled all season and we don’t see that changing here. They shoot just 42% (UCLA) and 43% (OSU) on the season and neither team is hitting 30% of their 3 pointers. Neither offense scores many points from deep both ranking outside the top 320 in percentage of points from outside the arc. We don’t look for many offensive possessions here as we have 2 slow paced teams facing off. That is especially the case on the defensive end where both teams make their opponents work very hard to get good shots. UCLA allows a shot attempts every 18.3 seconds and Oregon State allows a shot attempt every 18.5 seconds (both in the top 30 in the country). Last year these 2 totaled 109 points in their only meeting and we anticipate another grinder on Thursday night. |
|||||||
12-28-23 | UC-Santa Barbara -2 v. UC-Davis | Top | 62-76 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 28 m | Show |
#711 ASA PLAY ON UC Santa Barbara -2 over UC Davis, Friday at 9 PM ET - Both teams have had a full week plus off entering this game so both should be healthy and rested. UCSB is 7-3 on the season but that is a deceiving record as 2 of their 3 losses came with PG Mitchell, a potential first round draft choice, out with an injury. With Mitchell in the line up the Gauchos are 7-1 with their lone loss coming @ New Mexico who currently has an 11-1 record and the Lobos are a top 35 team per KenPom. Mitchell is averaging 20 PPG while shooting 52% from the field, 47% from beyond the arc, and 88% from the FT line. He and the Gauchos should have a field day offensively vs a UC Davis team that ranks outside the top 300 in 2 point FG% allowed and 3 point FG% allowed. UCSB is hitting 51% of their shots this season (7th nationally), 38.5% of their 3’s (30th nationally) and averaging 83 PPG. While Santa Barbara is averaging 83 PPG, UC Davis has scored more than 83 points just once this season vs Jessup College. Davis is 5-6 on the year with 2 wins vs non Division 1 opponents (Jessup & California Merced) and their 3 other wins all came vs teams ranked outside the top 200. They’ve faced 4 teams ranked inside the top 200 (UCSB is 140th) and the Aggies lost all of those games by double digits. UCSB has dominated this Big West series winning 7 straight meetings and 4 of those games were @ UC Davis. Lay the small number here. |
|||||||
12-28-23 | Jets v. Browns -7.5 | Top | 20-37 | Win | 100 | 24 h 1 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* CLEVELAND BROWNS -7.5 vs. NY Jets, 8:15 PM ET - The oddsmakers are trying to scare you off this bet with a line of minus -7.5 but in reality, the number is too low in our estimation. Consider this, the Jets were recently plus +7 points in Miami with starting QB Wilson. Back in late November they were plus +8.5 at Buffalo, again with Wilson. Cleveland is better defensively than both those teams by a wide margin, especially when playing at home. With the resurgence of QB Flacco they aren’t too far behind those teams offensively. Cleveland gives up just 13.1PPG when playing at home, allows 3.7 yards per play, 87.4 rushing YPG and 110.5 passing yards per game. The Jets offense has been atrocious on the road with averages of 12PPG, 4.7YPP and 249 total YPG. Don’t be fooled by the Jets 30-points in a thrilling late game win over the Redskins, whose defense has been shredded of late allowing 34.3PPG in their last three games. Prior to that game the Jets managed 0 points on the road against a Dolphins defense that isn’t anywhere near as good as the Browns. New York has scored 10, 13, 12, 6 and 0 in five of their six road games this season. The Browns offense has put up 31, 20 and 36 points in three straight wins and have averaged 372YPG over that stretch of games which is 4th most in the NFL. Cleveland is winning at home by an average of +7.4PPG while the Jets have the 3rd worst net differential on the road of minus -11.2PPG. |
|||||||
12-28-23 | NC State +2.5 v. Kansas State | Top | 19-28 | Loss | -109 | 21 h 22 m | Show |
#253 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* NC State +2.5 over Kansas State, Thursday at 5:45 PM ET - We really like the way this NC State team played down the stretch. We could argue by the end of the season this was the 2nd best team in the ACC behind FSU. The Wolfpack won 6 of their last 7 games including beating bowl teams UNC (by 19), Clemson (by 7), Miami (by 14), and Virginia Tech (by 7). The Pack also covered 6 of their last 7 games to close out the season. Their only 3 losses came at the hands of Notre Dame, Louisville, and Duke which was their only real clunker this season. Veteran QB Armstrong, transfer from UVA, lost his job midway through the season but gained it back and was terrific down the stretch completing 70% of his passes for 6 TDs (0 interceptions) over the last 3 games also adding over 200 yards rushing in those 3 games. NCSU has some opt outs in the transfer portal but the vast majority are not depth chart guys. Most of their starters are playing in this one. The same can’t be said for KSU. The Cats had a solid 8-4 season but they are missing a large amount of key guys for this one. That includes QB Will Howard (2,600 yards passing / 350 yards rushing), 2nd leading rusher Ward, and KSU’s top 2 pass catchers WR Brooks and TE Sinnott. Those 4 players alone have accounted for nearly 5,000 yards this season (passing, receiving, and rushing). On top of that, offensive coordinator Klein has also left the program to become the OC at Texas A&M. We’ll take the team that sits nearly full strength entering this game as a dog. NC state it is. |
|||||||
12-27-23 | Texas A&M v. Oklahoma State -2 | Top | 23-31 | Win | 100 | 24 h 31 m | Show |
#248 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oklahoma State -2 over Texas A&M, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - This game opened A&M favored and has flipped to OSU a small favorite. We agree with the move and still feel there is some value on the Cowboys. A&M has been decimated through opt outs, portal, and in the coaching staff. More than half the Aggies starters won’t play in this game and we’re hearing it could be more as we approach game time. That includes their top 2 QB’s who won’t play in this game leaving 3rd stringer Henderson to start under center. He’s had some experience late in the season in A&M’s last 3 games but had almost zero snaps in his previous 2 seasons at Fresno State. Head coach Jimbo Fisher was fired and OC Petrino left for Arkansas. The Aggies DC Robinson has been in charge of bowl prep and he’s leaving to be the DC at Syracuse as soon as this game is finished. Way too much upheaval for this Texas A&M team to think they’ll be fully focused on this one (players and coaches). OSU is coming off a blowout loss in the Big 12 Championship vs Texas and they lost their bowl game last year so this team is motivated to win. A win would also give them 10 wins for the 8th time in head coach Gundy’s tenure. Speaking of Gundy, he is a veteran to the bowl scene appearing in 16 previous bowl games and has been very successful with an 11-5 SU record. They have almost nobody in the portal of significance and the Cowboys are all in here. A&M just 3-3 their last 3 games and their wins were over Abilene Christian (FCS), Miss State (non bowl team), and South Carolina (non bowl team). In fact, the Aggies beat ONE bowl team all season and that was Auburn way back in September and that was when A&M had everyone on board. Okie State beat solid bowl teams Oklahoma, Kansas State, Kansas, and WVU this season and as we mentioned they will be the motivated team here. Take the Cowboys on Wednesday. |
|||||||
12-27-23 | Knicks v. Thunder -2.5 | Top | 120-129 | Win | 100 | 9 h 47 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Oklahoma City Thunder -2.5 vs NY Knicks, 8 PM ET - We are not concerned about the Thunder playing last night as they were able to give extended minutes to several bench players. OKC had a remarkable shooting night at 60% against the best defensive team in the NBA and now face a Knicks team that is average in that regard. New York allows opponents to make 47.5% of their FG attempts which ranks 18th in the league. One key advantage the Thunder have here is their 3-point shooting as they have the 2nd best 3PT percentage in the NBA at 38.6%. The Knicks allow foes to hit 37.3% which is 19th worst in the league. The Knicks are average in most key offensive categories and the Thunder hold the 2nd best FG% defense and are 12th in defending the 3-point line. This line is a bargain considering the Thunder were just favored by 2-points against the T-Wolves, -3.5 vs. the Lakers and -6.5 vs. the Clippers who all grade out higher than the Knicks. OKC has a positive differential of +7PPG at home this season and should get a win by that margin here. |
|||||||
12-26-23 | Grizzlies v. Pelicans -4.5 | Top | 116-115 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 15 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans -4.5 vs. Memphis Grizzlies, 8 PM ET - We really liked this game when it opened at -3.5 but there is still value at the current number with New Orleans. These same two teams just met on this court last week with Memphis winning by 2-points on a Ja Morant game winner. The Pelicans were favored by -8.5-points in that game, hence the value here. It’s a great situation to back New Orleans as they are off a home loss to the Rockets while Memphis has won 3 straight since the return of Morant. The Grizzlies upset this Pelicans team, then won at home against a Pacers team that is trending down, then beat a Hawks team that is 3-8 their last eleven. New Orleans is a solid home team with a 33-23 ATS record and a plus/minus of +4.6PPG dating back to the start of last season. Memphis is 22-36 ATS on the road since the start of last year with a +/- of -3.8PPG. With the quick turnaround between these two teams we like the situation and scheduling to back the Pelicans at home. |
|||||||
12-25-23 | Ravens v. 49ers UNDER 47 | Top | 33-19 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 43 m | Show |
#481/482 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UNDER 47 Points - Baltimore Ravens at San Francisco 49ers, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - These are two of the best overall defenses in the NFL ranking 1st and 4th in EPA and DVOA. San Francisco gives up 16.7PPG and 1-point scored for every 18.6 yards gained which rank 2nd and 1st in the NFL. Baltimore allows 16.1PPG and has a Yards Per Point defense of 17.9YPPT which rank 1st and 2nd respectively. Offensively both teams have some impressive overall statistics as each rank top 5 in both yards per play and total yards per game gained and scoring. But a closer look tells us that each team's offensive numbers may be a bit misleading based on the defenses they’ve faced. In San Francisco’s last six games they have not faced a defense ranked higher than 20th in EPA. In Baltimore’s last six games they have faced one defense ranked 19th or better in EPA. Baltimore is the 27th slowest paced team in the NFL at 1-play run every 29.6 seconds. The Niners are the slowest team in the league at 31.3 seconds per play. Baltimore’s best shot to beat this 49ers defense, which is soft in the interior, is by running the football. San Francisco is 19th in yards per rush allowed. The Ravens run the football more than anyone in the league at 32.7 rushing attempts per game and will be happy to grind away with the running game and keep the 49ers offense on the sidelines. San Francisco is 6th in rushing attempts per game and will also focus on their rushing attack against a Ravens D that allows 4.3YPR. With a heavy volume of tickets and money on the Over by public bettors we will gladly go opposite and be the Under here. |
|||||||
12-25-23 | 76ers -120 v. Heat | Top | 113-119 | Loss | -120 | 30 h 20 m | Show |
ASA Top Play on 10* Philadelphia 76ers -1.5 or Pick -120 at Miami Heat – 8:10 PM ET - The 76ers have been a money-making machine this season with a 20-8 ATS record, and we’ll back them on the road in Miami. The Heat are getting healthy, but we’re still not sold on this roster. Miami has won 5 of their last seven games but the wins have come against Charlotte (2x), Chicago, Orlando and Atlanta which is hardly impressive. Philly is on an 8-1 SU run and owns the best average point differential in the NBA at +11.3PPG. The Sixers are the best offensive efficiency team in the league and rank 5th defensively. Miami is 14th in DEFF and 15th in OEFF and have a negative point differential at home of -0.8PPG. The visitor has covered 4 straight in this rivalry and we expect that trend to continue here. |
|||||||
12-25-23 | Warriors v. Nuggets -6.5 | Top | 114-120 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 60 m | Show |
ASA Top Play on 10* Denver Nuggets -6.5 vs Golden State Warriors – 2:30 PM ET - This Warriors team is not your Warriors team from the past. The aging roster is catching up to them and we don’t see them as a relevant contender this season in the West. Denver on the other hand has the best starting five in the NBA and clearly are one of the favorites to win it all this season. Denver doesn’t lose very often at home with a 71.1% winning percentage at home since the start of the 2020 season. Since the start of last season the Nuggets are 55-10 SU with an average +/- of +10PPG. Golden State has really struggled on the road the past two season with a 18-43 SU record and a loss margin of minus -3.6PPG. Denver has won 4 straight in the series, including a 3-point win earlier this season at home. Denver owns the 8th best 3-point percentage defense in the NBA and can limit Curry and Crew from Deep. Lay the points. |
|||||||
12-24-23 | Browns v. Texans OVER 40 | Top | 36-22 | Win | 100 | 20 h 31 m | Show |
#461/462 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 40 Points - Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans, Sunday at 1 PM ET - This game has huge playoff implications for both teams as they battle for Wild Card positioning. Games such as these have trended to the Over this season as both team will empty their playbooks for a win. Let’s set the record straight regarding the Browns defense this season. They have been fantastic at home allowing 13.1PPG on their home field. When they are away from home they give up nearly 31PPG. Points allowed in their five road games are 36, 29, 42, 26, 38 and 26. All 6 of their road games have gone Over the total and those games averaged 55 total points per game. In the two most recent starts by QB Flacco for Cleveland they have put up 31-points against a solid Jags D and 20 versus the Bears last week. Against Chicago the Browns amassed 385-total yards on 6.1YPP. The Browns have thrown in 44.7 times per game in their last three games compared to the 37.5 they average on the season. Going up against an average Texans defense we expect the Browns to put up points in this one. Houston is middle of the pack defensively this season and they’ve played one of the easiest schedules in the NFL. They rank 16th in total YPG allowed, 19th in Yards Per Play allowed and give up the 25th most passing yards per game. Houston will also score here too with an offense that is 10th in total YPG and 7th in Yards Per Play. The Texans put up over 21PPG on the season and have scored 24.7PPG at home which is 9th highest in the league. Even with backup QB Keenum in the game we like the Texans to score 17 or more points and that’s all we’ll need to cash this Over. |
|||||||
12-23-23 | Coastal Carolina v. San Jose State -8.5 | Top | 24-14 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 25 m | Show |
#234 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Jose State -8.5 over Coastal Carolina, Saturday at 10:30 PM ET - We give SJSU the situational edge here as they have already played in Hawaii on this field this season rolling over the Rainbows 35-0. That means we expect this to be a business trip for the Spartans rather than a potential vacation. Coastal, on the other hand, is making their first trip to the islands so we wouldn’t be at all surprised if this is more of a “getaway” type situation for the Chanticleers. San Jose State starting QB Cordiero should have plenty of motivation as well returning to his home state where he played HS football and was the starting QB for Hawaii before transferring. These 2 teams are both 7-5 entering this bowl game but SJSU played the tougher schedule with all 5 losses coming vs bowl teams including Pac 12 opponents USC and Oregon State. Down the stretch the Spartans were fantastic winning 6 straight games with 5 of those wins coming by double digits. Their only tight games was in the regular season finale where they beat UNLV on the road 37-31, a Rebel team that played in the MWC Championship game. Despite the fairly close final score, San Jose led that game by 20 points with just over 6:00 minutes remaining in the game. Coastal Carolina has had many more opt outs in this game (19 in the transfer portal one of the highest of any bowl team) including starting QB McCall and his backup Guest. 3rd stringer Vasko, a redshirt freshman, did start their final 3 of their final 4 games when the first 2 QB’s were injured but he’s still very inexperienced compared to SJSU starter Cordiero who has thrown for 12,000 career yards and 87 TD’s. The Spartans seem to be highly motivated to get this win after finishing in a 3 way tie for the Mountain West title but were left out of the Championship game which were determined by computer rankings. “We’re going into this game and we want to win,” senior safety Tre Jenkins said. “Not even win close. We want to dominate. Especially because we just got a bad taste in our mouth not going to the (Mountain West Championship).” This SJSU offense averaged 39 PPG over their last 6 and we think they roll over a decimated Coastal Carolina team that had to make the long trip from Myrtle Beach SC to the islands. |
|||||||
12-23-23 | Missouri State v. St. Mary's -12.5 | Top | 69-64 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 6 m | Show |
#628 ASA TOP PLAY ON St Mary’s -12.5 over Missouri State, Saturday at 8 PM ET - St Mary’s has been a completely different team at home compared to on the road. We were on the Gaels last Saturday when they beat UNLV by 2 points on a neutral court in Phoenix but failed to cover the 6 point spread. Since that game they have played 2 home games winning by a combined score of 163-90 vs two solid opponents, Middle Tennessee State and Northern Kentucky. STM did have a rare home loss back in November vs Weber State in a game they blew a 16 point second half lead. They are 6-0 in their other 6 home games winning all by at least 13 points. The Gaels have won 5 straight games including a very impressive win @ Colorado State who is currently ranked 30th in the nation per KenPom. In their one home game vs a similar rated opponent, STM beat a very good Davidson team by 34 points as an 11 point favorite (Davidson is ranked 115th and tonight’s opponent Missouri State is ranked 116th). This is a fantastic defensive team ranking 12th nationally in efficiency allowing only 0.92 PPP and they are allowing only 53 PPG at home. The Gaels have struggled away from home offensively but when playing in University Credit Union Pavilion, where they’ve won 40 of their last 43 games, they are averaging nearly 80 PPG this season. Missouri State topped Lindenwood by 22 points at home on Tuesday (we were on Mizzou St) and now make the long trip to the west coast. The Bears have played 4 road games this season and lost all 4 averaging only 64 PPG (in regulation) in those losses. Now facing the best defense they’ve seen this year, we don’t expect much offensively from MSU. The Bears have faced only one top 100 team this season and lost that game by 17 points vs Drake. St Mary’s will be the best team Missouri State has faced this season and we look for an easy win for the home team. |
|||||||
12-23-23 | Grizzlies -117 v. Hawks | Top | 125-119 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
ASA top play on Memphis Grizzlies Pick'em -115 vs Atlanta Hawks, 7:40 PM ET - The Grizzlies are significantly better with Ja Morant on the floor as evidenced by their two wins with him back in the lineup. Today they face a Hawks team off a game last night in Miami. Atlanta is 5-13 SU their last 18 when playing without rest and they’ve lost those games by an average of minus -2.7PPG. Going back to the start of last season the Grizzlies have an average point differential of +5.1PPG when holding a rest advantage over their opponents and a 16-12 record. Atlanta took a hit when they lost up-and-coming Jalen Johnson and have just 3 wins in their last ten games. This is the Hawks 3rd game in four nights and 4th in six days so fatigue will be a factor. Memphis has two quality wins over the Pelicans and Pacers in their last two games and there is a reason they are favored in this game. |
|||||||
12-23-23 | Bengals v. Steelers OVER 37.5 | Top | 11-34 | Win | 100 | 27 h 54 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 37.5 Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers, 4:30 PM ET - Both teams are fighting for their Wildcard Playoff lives which is going to lead to plenty of points in this storied rivalry. We are seeing an uptick of scoring in the NFL overall and more importantly in games like this one with playoff implications. These same teams squared off on Nov 26th in Cincy which resulted in a 16-10 Steelers win. Pittsburgh should have scored more than the 16-points as they amassed over 420 total yards on 6.2YPP. The Steelers settled for three field goals of 41 or less yards and the Bengals kicked a 47-yarder. Missed opportunities by both teams was the story of this game as the Steelers fumbled at the Bengals 15-yard line, Cincy threw an INT at the Steelers 18. It was the Bengals QB Browning’s first start and he didn’t play well with 227-passing yards and that INT. He’s obviously been much better in his last three games going 79/103 for 953 total yards with 5 TD’s to 2 INT’s. The Steelers will start Mason Rudolph at QB who has NFL starting experience and shouldn’t be a drop off from either Pickett or Trubisky. He’ll face a Bengals defense that is one of the worst units in the league. Cincy gives up 22.2PPG, 6.0YPP and 4.7 yards per rush on the season. In their last two road games they’ve allowed over 30+ points in each. This isn’t the Steel Curtain the Bengals will face on Saturday either. Pittsburgh is 20th or worse in: yards allowed per game, yards per play, rushing yards and passing yards. In their last three games the Steelers have allowed 21 or more points to the Cardinal, Patriots and Colts. The Bengals average 5.5YPP offensively and score 21.9PPG despite injuries/lost games with QB Burrows. Three of the last four meetings between these two teams have totaled 43 or more points. Bet the Over here. |
|||||||
12-23-23 | Georgia State v. Utah State -120 | Top | 45-22 | Loss | -120 | 20 h 30 m | Show |
#228 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Utah State Pick -120 over Georgia State, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - This Georgia State team had much higher aspirations this seasons as they expected to contend and possibly win the Sun Belt Conference. After winning 6 of their first 7 games, the Panthers fell off a cliff and lost 5 straight to end the season and they are now sitting in a lower tier bowl they didn’t anticipate being in. They were outgained in each of their last 5 games by a total of nearly 900 yards and it looks like this team has packed it in. Now they travel west to Boise and where the windchill is expected to be in the 20’s at game time. Not ideal for a warm weather team. GSU lost a ton of production to the transfer portal as well with their top RB (over 1,300 yards) and top WR (over 800 yards) already out the door. Utah State has the advantage of playing on the blue field in Boise every other season as both are members of the Mountain West Conference. This line is a bit light in our opinion (we have USU as a 3 point chalk) which might be due to the fact that the Aggies top 2 QB’s are injured and won’t play in this game. However, their starter in this game will be senior Levi Williams who is very experienced and set to be a Navy SEAL when this game comes to an end. Williams led USU to a win in their regular season finale vs New Mexico, scoring 5 TD’s (2 passing and 3 rushing) in a game they had to win to become bowl eligible. Prior to coming to Utah State, Williams was the starting QB at Wyoming where he was 2-0 in bowl games including playing at this venue (Idaho Potato Bowl) 2 years ago accounting for 5 TD’s and 327 yards of total offense in that win. He should be more than comfortable in this spot. These 2 teams played a very similar strength of schedule this season (79th and 84th SOS per Sagarin) yet Utah State had much better numbers with a YPG differential of +30 (GSU was -58 YPG) and a YPP differential of +0.7 (GSU was -0.9). After winning their previous 2 bowl games, Utah State was embarrassed in their bowl game last year losing 38-10 vs Memphis and they’ve put a heavy emphasis on winning this one. We like Utah State here. |
|||||||
12-22-23 | Nuggets v. Nets +4.5 | Top | 122-117 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
ASA NBA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets +4.5 vs. Denver Nuggets, 7:40 PM ET - We are grabbing the value with the Nets here at home plus the points. These two teams recently met in Denver where the Nuggets were favored by -9-points. That means this line should be Denver minus 1 or 2 points. The Nets were in the middle of a tough road stretch and were playing the second night of a back-to-back in altitude. They shot horribly at 41% overall and made just 8 of 30 3-point attempts. The Nuggets were just favored by this same spread in Toronto who we grade slightly worse than Brooklyn. The Nuggets road numbers aren’t great at 7-8 SU with an average point differential of minus -0.4PPG. Brooklyn is 8-5 SU at home with the 12th best average margin of victory at +6.8PPG. We like the Nets to get a bit of revenge here from that recent loss in Denver. Grab the points. |
|||||||
12-22-23 | Central Florida -4.5 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 17-30 | Loss | -112 | 21 h 50 m | Show |
#219 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Central Florida -4.5 over Georgia Tech, Friday at 6:30 PM ET - Both teams are 6-6 on the season but we feel this UCF team is undervalued and better than their record. Half of their losses this season came with starting QB Plumlee out with an injury. They were just 1-3 SU when Plumlee was sidelined and the only win during that stretch was vs an FCS team. The Knights outgained their opponents by +100 YPG on the season and even vs bowl teams they were +31 YPG. That was mainly in a very tough Big 12 Conference. Georgia Tech played in the weaker ACC and was outgained on the season. UCF had the stronger strength of schedule and had the much better key numbers overall with a +85 point differential (GT was +8), a +100 YPG differential (GT was -10) and a +1.3 YPP differential (GT was dead even). And those numbers included the games that Plumlee was on the shelf or we’d be looking at an even more lopsided situation in the stats. We’re also getting a massive strength vs weakness situation in this game in favor of the Golden Knights. They run the ball for an average of 233 YPG (4th in the nation) on 5.7 YPC (5th in the nation). Plumlee being healthy at QB is a huge part of that success. They are facing a Tech defense that allows 225 YPG rushing (131st out of 133 teams) on 5.4 YPG (130th). This game is also being played in Tampa, Florida which obviously benefits UCF. The opt outs and portals are fairly minimal on each side however 2 of the bigger transfers are on the Georgia Tech defense with their top CB and top DE out. We like UCF to win this one by at least a TD. |
|||||||
12-21-23 | Saints v. Rams -4 | Top | 22-30 | Win | 100 | 37 h 8 m | Show |
#452 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* LA Rams -4 over New Orleans Saints, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - Both teams enter this game with 7-7 records but we feel the Saints are overvalued at this point in the season. They are coming of 2 straight wins which were impressive on the scoreboard, however those wins were vs Carolina and NY Giants. Their win over the Panthers was very deceiving as New Orleans was outgained in that game (at home) by 100 yards but had a defensive TD. On top of that they had 2 TD drives of 44 yards or less after Carolina turnovers. Last Sunday’s win over NYG was a bit more impressive however they caught the G-Men on a short week after beating GB on Monday night. The Saints wins this year have come vs Carolina (twice), New England, NY Giants, Chicago (with backup QB), Tennessee and Indy. The Colts are the only team in that group currently with a winning record. The Rams are surging winning 4 of their last 5 games with their only loss during that stretch coming @ Baltimore in OT. They’ve also covered 4 straight. Speaking of covering, Rams HC McVay has been great late in the season with an ATSU record of 17-4-1 his last 22 December games including 10-1-1 ATS at home in December. The LA offense has been clicking on all cylinders as of late averaging 33 PPG, 425 YPG and more than 6.0 YPP over their last 4 games. Not only that, 2 of those games came vs Cleveland and Baltimore, who rank 1st and 2nd in the NFL in total defense. The New Orleans defense looked good at home the past 2 weeks vs terrible offenses (NYG & Carolina) but prior to that they had allowed at least 24 points in 5 of their previous 6 games. Prior to their 2 wins the last 2 weeks vs poor competition, the Saints had lost 5 of their previous 7 games with all of those losses coming by at least 5 points. New Orleans is just 6-14-1 ATS their last 21 games following a win and we like the Rams to win this one by a TD or more. Lay it. |
|||||||
12-21-23 | Clippers v. Thunder -4.5 | Top | 115-134 | Win | 100 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Oklahoma City Thunder -4.5 vs LA Clippers, 8 PM ET - The Clippers trade for Harden seems to be working out as they’ve won 9 games in a row, including a road win last night in Dallas. L.A. is now playing their 3rd game in four nights and the second of a back-to-back in OKC. The Thunder have been off since the 18th and they’ve won 6 of their last eight games. The Thunder are coming off two straight impressive wins in Denver and at home against Memphis by 19-points. Oklahoma City is winning at home by an average of +7.3PPG which is the 10th best number in the NBA. When playing without rest the Clippers are 7-12 SU since the start of last season with a negative differential of minus -3.1PPG. The Clippers typically beat teams by shooting a high percentage but that will be tough to do tonight against an OKC team that is 2nd in opponents FG% overall and 9th in defending the 3-point line. The Thunder also shoot it just as well as the Clippers from beyond the arc (4th) and overall (4th). The scheduling clearly favors the Thunder at home. |
|||||||
12-21-23 | Capitals v. Blue Jackets OVER 6 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -118 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
#53/54 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 6 Goals - Washington Capitals at Columbus Blue Jackets, Wednesday at 7:07 PM ET - Great set-up for an over here. Washington is coming off a 3-2 win in the shootout last night and the back to back is going to stress the goalie situation for the Capitals. The Blue Jackets are a high-scoring team and the Capitals defense and netminding will be pushed to the limit here. Columbus has seen 7 straight games total at least 7 goals. The Blue Jackets have become a more wide-open free-flowing team and the goal-scoring has picked up as a result. Columbus has played .500 hockey for many weeks now and won 7 of 14 games and averaged scoring 4 goals per game in those 14 games. The issue for the Blue Jackets is that the goal-tending work has really tailed off of late. Columbus has allowed at least 3 goals in 7 of last 8 games. The Capitals also have a goal-tending concern here as their option would be Kuemper playing a 2nd straight game in a B2B which would not be good. The Caps other option (and the expected option) is that Lindgen will get the start tonight. He has allowed at least 3 goals in 6 of his last 8 games. In those 6 games, Lindgren allowed an average of 3.5 goals. The goals should be flying here as the Caps are facing a high-scoring Jackets team that is surging right now but, at the same time, Washington's confidence is surging with B2B wins and victories in 4 of last 6 games. Based on the above, we can't see either team finishing with less than 3 goals in this one given the above and this would translate to at least a 4-3 final. Over is our play here |
|||||||
12-21-23 | Jacksonville State v. Arkansas-Little Rock -2.5 | Top | 90-60 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 7 m | Show |
#718 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Arkansas Little Rock -2.5 over Jacksonville State, Thursday at 3 PM ET - This is a really good situational spot for UALR. They are playing their 3rd straight home game and haven’t been on the road since December 7th. After a rough 1-5 start, Little Rock has turned the corner winning 5 of their last 7 games and 5 of their last 6 at home. They are catching Jacksonville State in a tough spot. The Gamecocks play @ Wisconsin last Thursday, then traveled to Texas on Monday to face Tarleton State, and now a few days later they are on the road in Arkansas to play an afternoon game. JSU is coming off an upset win @ Tarleton State on Monday winning by 3 as a 4.5 point dog. They trailed for most of the game in that win (down 12 with 9:00 minutes remaining) and took their first lead of the 2nd half with barely over 2:00 minutes remaining. They still were down with under 40 seconds left before pulling out the win. Now traveling again after that come from behind win could be tough for JSU today. UALR has played well at home with a 6-2 SU & ATS mark so far this season. They are averaging 82 PPG at home with a +7 PPG point differential. They are hitting 49% of their shots at home this season and nearly 40% of their triples. They will be facing a fatigued JSU offense that simply isn’t a very good shooting team that ranks 266th in eFG% and makes less than 30% of their 3’s. We’ll lay the small number with the home team on Thursday afternoon. |
|||||||
12-20-23 | North Carolina -2.5 v. Oklahoma | Top | 81-69 | Win | 100 | 14 h 57 m | Show |
#687 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* North Carolina -2.5 over Oklahoma, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - This isn’t a true home game for UNC but it’s being played in Charlotte so the crowd will be heavily in favor of the Heels. They are sort of in must win mode coming off back to back losses vs UConn and Kentucky, both on neutral courts. Those aren’t the only 2 high level teams UNC has played this year as their strength of schedule ranks 21st in the country per KenPom. They have solid wins vs Tennessee, Arkansas, and Florida State. The Sooners are undefeated but they’ve played an ultra easy slate ranking 336th in SOS. They have played 7 home games and just 3 neutral site games. This will be the closest thing to a true road game Oklahoma has played this season. Half of their opponents this season currently rank 295th or lower while North Carolina hasn’t played a single team ranked that low and more than half of their games (6) have come vs teams inside the top 100. The Sooners have very good overall defensive numbers, however we need to account for their weak schedule when sifting through that. They have faced only 3 offenses currently ranked inside the top 100 in efficiency and the average offensive efficiency of the 10 teams they’ve faced is 202nd. Now they take on a Tar Heel team that ranks 9th in the country in offensive efficiency and is averaging 85 PPG on the season. Offensively, Oklahoma has put up some big numbers at home this year (vs mainly poor competition) but in their 3 games away from home (all neutral court) they’ve been held below their PPP season average. That was vs 3 defensive teams (Iowa, Arkansas, and USC) who’s defensive efficiency numbers are not as good as this UNC team. We feel this is just a really good spot for Carolina needing a win after a few losses vs a team that has padded their early season record vs a poor SOS. Lay the small number. |
|||||||
12-20-23 | Hawks v. Rockets -3 | Top | 134-127 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Houston Rockets -3 vs Atlanta Hawks, 8:10 PM ET - We have admittedly been slow to get on the Rockets bandwagon but will side with them tonight at home against the Hawks. If you haven’t been paying attention, the Rockets are 11-1 SU at home and the only loss came back in the first week of the season to Golden State. They have beaten some of the best teams in the league at home including: the Kings (twice) Lakers, Pelicans, Nuggets (twice) and Thunder. Houston’s average Margin of Victory at home is 4th best in the NBA at +12.8PPG. The Hawks have OK road numbers with an average MOV of +0.5PPG and a 6-6 SU record but most recently they’ve struggled with a 2-6 SU record in their last eight road contests. Their last four road wins have come against teams with losing records with 2 of those coming at the Spurs and at Washington, two of the worst teams in the league. Houston is coming off a 3-game road stint with a win in Memphis and two tightly contested losses in Milwaukee and Cleveland. Atlanta has been a fade team all season long with a 6-20 ATS record while the Rockets are 16-7-1 ATS. We expect that trend to continue tonight and will back Houston. |
|||||||
12-20-23 | Nuggets -4 v. Raptors | Top | 113-104 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Denver Nuggets -4 at Toronto Raptors, 7:30 PM ET - Toronto used to have one of the best home court advantages in the NBA but that hasn’t been the case this season. The Raptors are 8-7 SU with an average point differential of +1.4PPG. In their last five games at home, they have a pair of unimpressive wins against poor teams such as Charlotte and Atlanta and losses to good teams Miami and New York. Toronto is just 3-4 SU at home against teams with a current winning record. Denver is not a deep team but their starting five is as good as anyone in the NBA. They recently went through a stretch of games without PG Murray but he’s back now and the Nuggets have won 4 of their last five games. Denver has played the 8th toughest schedule yet still has an average point differential of +4.8PPG which is 7th highest in the league. Toronto has faced a much weaker schedule, and their net point differential is -1.7PPG. These two teams are relatively even in defensive efficiency, but the Nuggets hold a big advantage when it comes to offensive efficiency, averaging 1.185PPP compared to the Raptors 1.133PPP. At this price we will back the World Champs minus the points. |
|||||||
12-19-23 | Celtics v. Warriors UNDER 235 | Top | 126-132 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 29 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 235 Boston Celtics at Golden State Warriors, 10 PM ET - The O/U number on this game has ticked up slightly from the opener and we like the added value with an Under wager on this marquee NBA game tonight. Scoring is up as a whole in the NBA with games averaging roughly 230 total points per contest. To get to that lofty total you need several factors including pace of play, a poor defense or great offense. In this match up we have the Warriors who rank 13th in pace of play at 99.7 possessions per game, Boston ranks 23rd. The Celtics are 7th in offensive efficiency but the Warriors rank 15th in OEFF. Defensively the Celtics are 4th in defensive efficiency and allow 109PPG. Golden State is 17th in DEFF and give up 115PPG. When playing away from home the Celtics tend to play slower and score less at 111.2PPG which is significantly lower than the 123.6PPG they score at home. Golden State also plays at a slower tempo at home compared to when they play on the road and also score and allow less at home. In the two meetings last season these teams combined for 230 and 222 (in regulation) when they faced each other, and they have stayed Under the total in 7 of the last ten meetings overall. The bet here is UNDER! |
|||||||
12-19-23 | Lindenwood v. Missouri State -17.5 | Top | 57-79 | Win | 100 | 6 h 34 m | Show |
#630 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Missouri State -17.5 over Lindenwood, Tuesday at 8 PM ET - Like this spot for Mizzou State as they enter this game having lost 3 of their last 4 games so should be fully focused on rolling over this bad Lindenwood team. The Bears most recent game was a 1 point loss @ Tulsa, a game they led by 10 with 5:00 minutes remaining. All 4 of MSU’s losses this year have come on the road (7-4 overall record) and their home winning margin is +13.5 PPG. Three of their four home opponents were ranked inside the top 200 while Lindenwood is currently ranked 333rd (out of 362). Lindenwood is also in a tough spot coming off a rare road win @ IUPUI who is ranked 359th or the 4th worst team in the country. The Lions were 0-4 on the road coming into that game vs a terrible IUPUI team and they lost those 4 games by an average margin of -28 PPG. Lindenwood has now won only 3 of their last 21 road games dating back to the start of last year and 13 of those losses have come by double digits. They are bad on both ends of the court ranking 343rd in offensive efficiency and 285th in defensive efficiency. The Lions are a poor offensive team that averages only 60 PPG on the road this season and they rank outside the top 300 in FG%, 2 point FG%, and 3 point FG%. They are facing a Missouri State defense that has been outstanding 14th in the nation in eFG% defense and top 35 in both 2 point FG and 3 point FG percentage defense. On offense the Bears are averaging 85 PPG at home and hitting nearly 49% of their shots. Now facing a Lindenwood defense that allows over 80 PPG on the road. This one should be a blowout. |
|||||||
12-18-23 | Wizards v. Kings OVER 247 | Top | 131-143 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 247 Washington Wizards at Sacramento Kings, 8:15 PM ET - The Wizards are in a tough spot here having played last night in Phoenix. Tonight’s game will also be their 3rd game in four days. Washington is a team that really struggles on the defensive end of the court and we know that ‘s where most of your energy should be spent. The Wiz are last in the league in defensive efficiency allowing 1.217PPP and 126.3PPG. They have allowed 130+ in 6 of their last ten games, 140 or more twice. Washington wants to play fast with the 2nd highest possession rate in the NBA. The Kings are going to score in this game and could easily get to that 130 number. Sacramento is 11th in pace and 14th in offensive efficiency. The Kings are averaging the 9th most points per game at 116.3PPG and are coming off a pair of games scoring 128 and 125. It’s a big number, but we like this game to reach 250+ total points. |
|||||||
12-18-23 | Eagles v. Seahawks OVER 45 | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 45 Philadelphia Eagles at Seattle Seahawks, 8:15 PM ET - The injury/illness status of Eagles QB Hurts is the big news here as he is currently listed as doubtful for tonight’s game. The Seahawks have their own QB injury to worry about as Geno Smith has a pulled groin and may not play tonight either. That means it could be a showdown between backups Marcus Mariota for Philly and Drew Lock for the Seahawks. We are still betting Over the total with the reserve QB’s. These two teams have very similar offensive and defensive numbers when it comes to DVOA ratings. Defensively both are in the bottom third of the NFL with the Eagles ranking 22nd while the Seahawks are 24th. Offensively though both ae in the top half of the league with Seattle 12th and Philly 8th. In their last three games the Eagles defense has been exposed allowing 33+ points in three straight and 4 of their last six games. Seattle hasn’t been any better, allowing 28, 41 and 31-points in their last three games. Both teams give up 5.7 yards per play (24th) and over 350YPG. Seattle allows 24.5PPG which ranks 25th in the NFL while the Eagles allow 24.7PPG (28th). We are expecting both teams to get into the mid-20’s here. Bet Over! |
|||||||
12-18-23 | Jacksonville State v. Tarleton St UNDER 126.5 | Top | 65-62 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 10 m | Show |
#881/882 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 126.5 Points – Jacksonville State vs Tarleton State, Monday at 8 PM ET - Defense is definitely the strength of these 2 teams. They both rank in the top 25 nationally in scoring defense allowing right around 62 PPG. Offensively both of these teams struggle to make shots ranking outside the top 200 in efficiency, eFG%, 2 point FG%, and 3 point FG%. JSU has played only 4 teams this year that have a defensive efficiency rank inside the top 200. They have not topped 60 points in any of those games and they averaged just 56 PPG. Tarleton State hasn’t played a defense with a pulse since November and in their 5 games vs defenses ranked inside the top 200 in efficiency they are averaging 65 PPG. We expect very few possessions this game as both are slow paced (313th and 322nd in possession per game). Both are very deliberate on offense especially with each averaging 19 seconds per possession which ranks them 335th in the nation. Three point shots will be kept at a minimum in this one as neither relies heavily on the deep ball. JSU averages 16 three point attempts per game and TSU averages 15 ranking them 335th and 344th respectively. When the do take a shot from beyond the arc, they are hitting just 30% (both teams) which is not good. Lastly, neither team gets to the FT line very often so we should be getting very few points with the clock stopped. Defenses and slow pace rule here so we grab the Under. |
|||||||
12-18-23 | Western Kentucky v. Old Dominion -3 | Top | 38-35 | Loss | -110 | 68 h 56 m | Show |
#202 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Old Dominion -3 over Western Kentucky, Monday at 2:30 PM ET - This WKY beat only 1 bowl team all season long (South Florida) and now they’ve been decimated by the transfer portal including nearly their entire starting offensive line opting to move on. There is now talk that starting QB Reed may also sit this game out but nothing definitive on that yet. If it happens this line will go up so play it now at -2.5 (line as of Friday). Even when they had their entire team in tact, the Hilltoppers were 1-7 SU vs bowl teams, were outscored by an average of 12 PPG in those games and outgained by nearly 130 YPG. With all the turnover we’re not sure this team is all that excited to be here. ODU, on the other hand, is thrilled to be in this bowl game and fought like crazy to get here. They played a solid schedule with 10 bowl teams and they won 4 of those games. In their home finale, a game they needed for bowl eligibility, the Monarchs trailed Georgia State 19-0 at half and fought back for a 25-24 win. They’ve only been in 2 bowl games in their history, the most recent a few years ago in 2021. We expected ODU to control the trenches in this game even before WKY lost nearly their entire offensive line. The Monarchs rushed for an impressive 183 YPG vs bowl teams and they are facing a Hilltopper defense that ranks 123rd at stopping the run and vs bowl teams they allowed 243 YPG on the ground. Meanwhile Western barely averages 100 YPG rushing and ODU’s defense allowed just 3.4 YPC vs other bowl teams. Old Dominion played the tougher schedule, the 2 teams had very similar YPG & YPP differential, and the Monarchs team is more in tact right now when compared to Western Kentucky. We’ll lay the small number in this one. |
|||||||
12-17-23 | Rockets +7 v. Bucks | Top | 119-128 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 34 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Houston Rockets +7 at Milwaukee Bucks, 7 PM ET - This is a great spot to fade Milwaukee and back a red hot Rockets team. Houston has won 5 straight games and that includes a pair of wins over OKC and Denver. This Rockets team is tenacious defensively ranking 2nd in defensive efficiency allowing just 1.082 points per possession. In comparison the Bucks rank 23rd. The Bucks have won three straight and 8 of their last ten but take a look at who they’ve played. Milwaukee has not faced a defense of this caliber since November 22nd at Boston and they lost by 3-points. In their last ten games the Bucks have faced 8 teams that rank in the bottom third of the NBA in total defense. Milwaukee has played THE easiest schedule in the NBA, the Rockets have faced the 12th toughest. Grab the points with Houston. |
|||||||
12-17-23 | Bucs v. Packers -3 | Top | 34-20 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 5 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Green Bay Packers -3 or -3.5 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 1 PM ET - Everyone who watched the Monday night game will be jumping off the Packers bandwagon here but we like the situation to ‘buy low’ on Green Bay. We expect the Packers to bounce back off that ugly showing and play as they did in the three previous games. Green Bay has also won 3 straight at home against the Rams, Chargers and Chiefs. The Bucs are coming off a huge win over the Falcons in a game that they were thoroughly outplayed. Tampa Bay was outgained 290 to 434 by Atlanta and averaged 4.3 yards per play which was a full 2.0 less YPP than the Falcons. The Bucs defense is decimated with injuries right now and it’s shown on the field as they allow 5.6YPP (27th), 363YPG (27th) and can’t stop the pass giving up the 30th most passing yards per game at 264YPG. The Packers are averaging the 9th most passing YPG over their last 3 games and have put up the 9th most total YPG in that same time frame. The Bucs rank in the lower third of the NFL in most key offensive categories including total YPG, yards per play, yards per rush and rank 20th in passing YPG. In their last three home games, the Packers defense has allowed 20-points or less and they have much better statistics at Lambeau than on the road. We like the Packers at home by double-digits. |
|||||||
12-17-23 | Bears v. Browns UNDER 38 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 20 h 31 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 38 Chicago Bears at Cleveland Browns, 1PM ET - We get a pair of solid defenses here and two very average offenses in what shapes up to be a low scoring affair. The Browns hemorrhage points on the road but have been much better at home where they allow 12.6PPG which is best in the league. Last week the 27-points scored by the Jags was misleading as they managed under 300-total yards in the game and scored a late TD with 1:33 remaining. The Browns have certainly gotten a boost from veteran QB Flacco, but he has a very low QBR of 41.5 with 5 TD’s and 2 INT’s. Let’s also consider the two games he’s played in have come against the Rams and Jags who rank 20th and 31st in passing YPG allowed. The addition of DL Sweat has bolstered the Bears pass rush which is averaging 2.7 sacks per game over their last three so expect plenty of pressure on the immobile Flacco. The Bears defense has been rising in the stat charts in recent weeks and currently sit 13th in yards per play allowed at 5.2YPP. In their last three games they are giving up just 4.9YPP defensively. We don’t expect Chicago to put up a big number here offensively against this Browns D. Chicago is 22nd in yards per play at 5.2YPP, rank 21st in total yards per game and average 20.8PPG which is 20th. The Browns allow the fewest yards per game in the league, 3rd fewest yards per play, rank 11th in rushing D and 1st in passing D. This game has that 17-14 type outlook. Bet Under. |
|||||||
12-16-23 | Broncos v. Lions -4 | Top | 17-42 | Win | 100 | 53 h 24 m | Show |
#312 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Detroit Lions -4 over Denver Broncos, Saturday at 8:15 PM ET - Getting very solid value here with Detroit in our opinion. They’ve had their struggles the last few weeks but let’s remember just a few weeks ago they were 8 point home favorites vs Green Bay and now the Lions are laying -4 (current line as of Thursday) vs Denver. We actually have GB power rated about 1 point higher than the Broncos right now so you can see the value with Detroit. The Lions are in must win mode at home coming off a loss last week @ Chicago (we were on Chicago) and the Packers just 2 games behind. Detroit has been much better at home this season with a YPP differential of +1.2 (on the road they are +0.1) and a YPG differential of +113. In their 2 home losses vs Green Bay and Seattle, the Lions outgained both of those opponents but they were -6 in turnover differential which makes it almost impossible to win. The Lions are averaging over 400 YPG at home and QB Goff has been much better at Ford Field completing 70% of his attempts for an average of 275 YPG through the air. Denver is on a 6-1 SU run which we feel has pushed them into overvalued range. In those 6 wins they benefited greatly from turnovers (+14 TO margin in those 6 games alone) but they were outgained in half those wins. This is the Broncos third straight road game having played @ Houston and @ LA Chargers the last 2 weeks. They have the 2nd worst road YPP differential in the NFL at -1.90. In their win over the Chargers last week, Denver caught another break when LA QB Herbert was injured in the 2nd quarter and out the remainder of the game. Despite their 6-1 record, Denver’s offense hasn’t been great during that stretch averaging less than 5.0 YPP in 5 of 7 games. We like Detroit to bounce back from last week’s loss @ Chicago and pick up a solid home win. |
|||||||
12-16-23 | Hawks v. Cavs -2.5 | Top | 119-127 | Win | 100 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Cleveland Cavaliers -2 or -2.5 vs Atlanta Hawks, 7:30 PM ET - The Hawks are in a tough scheduling situation here having played and won in Toronto on Friday night. This will be the second night of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in four nights. Cleveland has lost 4 straight games, but they’ve come against Miami, Orlando and Boston twice. The Cavs suffered a blow in their last game, losing PG Garland for the foreseeable future with a jaw injury. But LeVert is more than capable of filling in for Garland and also expect Donovan Mitchell to step up to the task. The Hawks hold the offensive advantage, but the Cavs are that much better defensively ranking 8th in defensive efficiency compared to the Hawks at 28th. With this low number we are basically just asking the Cavs to win this game outright and they are 38-18 SU at home since the start of last season with an average Margin of Victory of +5.8PPG. Atlanta is 25-33 SU their last 58 road games with a negative differential of minus -1.1PPG. Atlanta playing without rest is 5-12 SU their last 17, minus -2.4PPG. Let’s back the shorthanded Cavs at home in desperation mode. |
|||||||
12-16-23 | UCLA v. Boise State UNDER 48 | Top | 35-22 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 7 m | Show |
#209/210 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 48 Points – Boise State vs UCLA, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - Both teams lost their starting QB’s to the transfer portal with UCLA’s Moore heading to Michigan and Boise’s Green heading to Arkansas. The Bruins did rotate QB’s with Moore this season, however Garbers (the back up) injured his shoulder in their season finale vs Cal. Looks like he will play but even so, UCLA’s offense was a train wreck down the stretch. This offense scored 10 points or fewer in 3 of their final 4 games including vs defenses ranked 109th (Cal) and 92nd (Arizona State). This is a run heavy offense (15th in the country in rushing attempts per game) that might be without the top RB Steele who has been held out of practice due to an injury. Boise’s offense was lights out at the end of the season but we’re expecting a huge tail off here as they are down to their 3rd string QB, CJ Tiller, a freshman who has never taken a collegiate snap. He’ll be facing a UCLA defense that is by far the best and most athletic stop unit the Broncos have faced this season. The Bruins rank in the top 10 in the country in most defensive categories and they’ve allowed only 3 opponents to top 20 points this season. Boise’s defense was poor early in the season but after head coach Avalos was fired (hearing players didn’t like him at all) they really played well holding 5 of their last 6 opponents to 20 points or less. Both teams average over 40 rush attempts per game (both top 25 in that stat) which eats clock and shortens games. We expect that here especially with the uncertainty at QB for both sides. This one stays Under the Total |
|||||||
12-16-23 | UNLV v. St. Mary's -5 | Top | 67-69 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 16 m | Show |
#684 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* St Mary’s -5 over UNLV, Saturday at 7 PM ET - This game is being played on a neutral court in Phoenix, Arizona. We’re getting some value with St Mary’s at this point in the season mainly because their record is just 5-5. Let’s keep in mind they’ve played a brutally tough schedule thus far (16th SOS) and 4 of their 5 losses have come vs teams currently sitting in the top 75 per KenPom. The Gaels return 3 starters and 70% of their minutes from a team that was 27-8 last season and beat VCU in round 1 of the NCAA tourney before losing to eventual National Champions UConn. STM has now had a full week off and has some solid momentum after beating an undefeated Colorado State team on the road last Saturday. That was a CSU team that had 5 top 100 wins already this season including W’s vs Washington, Creighton, and Colorado. Impressive win for St Mary’s to go on the road and beat that team. Saturday they are facing a UNLV team that is coming off a gigantic home win on Wednesday vs Creighton and now traveling just a few days after that win. The Rebels hit 52% of their shots in that game and 45% from deep. The Jays, normally a great shooting team, had an off night 8 of their 29 three point attempts. That was an aberration in our opinion as UNLV is NOT a good defensive team. They rank outside the top 300 in eFG% allowed and are near the bottom of college basketball defending the arc (343rd). St Mary’s should have a huge edge defensive as they rank 23rd nationally in defensive efficiency. The Gaels should also dominate the glass ranking 21st nationally in offensive rebounding facing a UNLV team that ranks outside the top 200 in both offensive and defensive rebounding. The Rebs have only played 3 teams currently ranked inside the top 100 and lost 2 of those. St Mary’s will be the 2nd highest rated team UNLV has played this season. Lay the small number with the Gaels |
|||||||
12-16-23 | New Mexico State -3.5 v. Fresno State | Top | 10-37 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 21 m | Show |
#207 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New Mexico State -3.5 over Fresno State, Saturday at 5:45 PM ET - NMSU has been a cover machine this season with a spread record of 10-3-1. Their head coach, Jerry Kill (former Minnesota head coach), has done a masterful job including keeping his team motivated late in the season when they really didn’t have anything to play for. The Aggies final 2 games of the season were “meaningless” so to speak as they had already locked up a spot in the CUSA Championship game and were bowl eligible. In their final 2 regular season games they beat Auburn on the road 31-10 as 24+ point underdogs. It wasn’t flukey at all as they outgained the Tigers by 200 yards and ran the ball for 213 yards on the SEC defense! The week after was a PERFECT letdown spot playing a solid Jacksonville State team with the CUSA Title game on deck and having just beaten Auburn on the road. They won that game as well never trailing and outgaining Jax St by 122 yards. Impressive to say the least. The Aggies did lose in the CUSA to an undefeated Liberty team but even in that game NMSU put up 500 total yards in a game that was tied in the 4th quarter. This game is in Albuquerque so a semi home game for the Aggies who are thrilled to be here. We’re not so sure Fresno feels the same way. This game was undefeated in early October and won 7 of their first 8 games and had Mountain West title hopes on their minds. They tanked down the stretch losing 3 in a row to close out the season and getting topped ATS in all 3 games by a combined 73 points! Two of those losses came vs a pair of teams that finished the year with 4-8 records, New Mexico and San Diego State by 8 and 15 points respectively. Their head coach Jeff Tedford will not be coaching in this bowl game and they have a couple of key injuries on the offensive and defensive lines. NMSU should control the trenches here as their running game averages over 200 YPG on 5.8 YPC (4th in the country) facing an Bulldog defense that ranks 98th vs the run. The Aggies average 7.0 YPP on the season (9th nationally) and they have a YPP differential of +1.0 compared to Fresno who is dead even in that category (5.5 YPP offense / 5.5 YPP defense). New Mexico State is absolutely the more motivated team here and we like them to cover this number. |
|||||||
12-15-23 | Senators v. Stars OVER 6.5 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 102 | 4 h 13 m | Show |
#53/54 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 6.5 Goals - Ottawa Senators at Dallas Stars, Friday at 8:07 PM ET - Great set-up for an over here. Ottawa is coming off a 4-2 loss at St Louis last night and the back to back is going to stress the goalie situation for the Senators. The Stars are a high-scoring team and the Senators defense and netminding will be pushed to the limit here. Dallas has seen 11 of the last 14 games total at least 7 goals. This is not like the Dallas teams of old that played tight defensive-minded hockey. Instead, the Stars have become a more wide-open free-flowing team and the goal-scoring has picked up as a result. Dallas has averaged scoring 4 goals per game in the last 14 games. The issue for the Stars is that the goal-tending work of Jake Oettinger has really tailed off since he had a strong start to the season. Oettinger has allowed at least 3 goals in each of his last 4 games. The Senators are a solid scoring club and will be ready to go strong here after the disappointing result at St Louis last night in which the Blues were ready to respond after firing their head coach. The Senators had averaged 4 goals scored per game in their 4 games prior to the tough result at St Louis last night. They should enjoy success against a Stars club that has allowed 22 goals in the last 5 matches! This is not only a non-divisional but also non-conference match-up and that also lends itself to a more free-flowing affair. Based on the recent trending for each club, we can't see either team finishing with less than 3 goals in this one given the above and this would translate to at least a 4-3 final. Over is our play here |
|||||||
12-15-23 | Magic v. Celtics -6 | Top | 111-128 | Win | 100 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -6 vs. Orlando Magic, 7:30 PM ET - These same two team met in Orlando in late November with the Celtics favored by -5.5-points. The Magic pulled the upset 113-96 when the C’s shot poorly at 41% while the Magic shot above their average at 51%. If Boston was a road favorite of -5.5-points they should be a larger favorite at home where they are 11-0 with an average margin of Victory of plus +15.9PPG. Orlando is 11-2 SU their last 13 games but 8 of those came at home. Their last two road games have been losses by 10 and 28-points. Boston has a big advantage from beyond the arc as the Magic shoot just 34.3% from Deep which ranks 26th in the NBA. Boston is the 13th best FG% shooting team in the NBA and rank 16th from the 3-point line. These two teams are very even defensively but the C’s are much better offensively ranking 7th in OEFF compared to the Magic who rank 18th. Lay the points. |
|||||||
12-13-23 | Pacers v. Bucks UNDER 259 | Top | 126-140 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY on 10* UNDER 258.5 or 259 Indiana Pacers at Milwaukee Bucks, 8 PM ET - These two teams just met in the In Season tournament with the Pacers upsetting the Bucks 128-119 as a 5.5-point underdog. There was a fallout in the Bucks locker room after the game regarding their defensive intensity, so we are expecting a much better effort on that end of the court tonight. The Bucks were the 4th best defensive efficiency team in the NBA a year ago allowing just 1.090 points per possession but have dropped to 23rd this season. Milwaukee is not that bad defensively, so we are expecting a trend up in this defensive category as the season wears on. Even with the Pacers being one of the fastest paced teams in the league and the most efficient offensively it will take great shooting and a lot of possession to eclipse tonight’s O/U number. In the most recent meeting these two teams combined for 198 field goal attempts, and both shot above 45% and the game finished with 247 total points. There have been roughly 339 NBA games played this season and only 24 of those games have finished with more total points being scored than tonight’s Over-Under. We are clearly betting the value and Under in this one. |
|||||||
12-13-23 | Pelicans v. Wizards OVER 241 | Top | 142-122 | Win | 100 | 8 h 36 m | Show |
ASA Top Play on 10* OVER 241 New Orleans Pelicans at Washington Wizards, 7:10 PM ET - Even if Zion Williamson can’t play tonight, we like this game Over. The Wizard routinely give up 130 or more points and if the Pels get to that number this game goes Over the total easily. Washington has allowed 130+ in 7 of their last ten games and 4 of their last five. They rank last in the league in defensive efficiency allowing 1.217PPP and points allowed per game at 126.3PPG. We know we will get plenty of possessions in this game as the Wiz rank 2nd in pace of play, the Pelicans are above average at 12th. New Orleans is 12th in DEFF but in their last five games they haven’t been as good on that end of the court ranking 22nd. It’s a given the Pelicans are going to score here but we obviously need Washington to put up points also and they should. Washington is 6th in team field goal percentage at 48.2%, and 10th in scoring at 115.6PPG. New Orleans gives up 113.9PPG which is the 18th highest number in the NBA. We expect plenty of points in this game and will play Over. |
|||||||
12-12-23 | Warriors v. Suns -3 | Top | 116-119 | Push | 0 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns -3 vs Golden State Warriors, 10:10 PM ET - We are making this wager with the assumption that Kevin Durant will be in the lineup tonight against his former team. These team have very similar efficiency stats with the Suns allowing 1.149 points per possession compared to the Warriors 1.146PPP. Offensively the Suns rank 9th in OEFF, the Warriors are 13th. This is difficult to comprehend but the Warriors currently rank 25th in the NBA in shooting at 45.2% and hit 36.7% from beyond the Arc which is 13th and well below the Warriors standards. Golden State will have a hard time shooting it tonight against a Suns team that is 9th best in opponents FG% overall and 6th defending the 3-point line. Phoenix is the 3rd best 3-point shooting team in the NBA and 15th overall at 47.5%. The Warriors do defend the 3 well allowing just 34.2% but with the potential return of Bradley Beal it will be tough to defend all the shooters the Suns can run at them. Two of the Warriors cornerstone scorers are really struggling right now as Wiggins and Thompson can’t seem to find their shooting stokes. The Suns have beaten this Warriors team twice already this season including an 8-point win on this floor in late November. |
|||||||
12-12-23 | Oral Roberts +13 v. Texas Tech | Top | 76-82 | Win | 100 | 8 h 34 m | Show |
#617 ASA TOP PLAY ON Oral Roberts +13 over Texas Tech, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - ORU is a very good mid major program coming off a 30-5 record a year ago. They did lose some players off that team but still have 2 solid starters back and we have the power rated as the 2nd best team in the Summit League. Their head coach from last season moved onto Wichita State but ORU hired his head assistant so the systems are still in place. They have played 2 high level Power 6 teams to the wire on the road this season losing at Texas A&M by 8 and at Kansas State in OT. The Golden Eagles have tested themselves early playing the 35th most difficult schedule (KenPom SOS ratings) and they won’t be intimidated here. Texas Tech has a new head coach (from North Texas), new systems, and they’ve overhauled nearly their entire roster from last season. The Red Raiders have a big game on deck Saturday vs SEC’s Vanderbilt so they might be peaking ahead to that game. They aren’t a great shooting team ranking 151st in eFG% and they struggle from beyond the arc hitting only 32%. Tech also lost one of their top players for the season, Devan Cambridge (10.5 PPG, 4.5 RPG), to a season ending injury in their most recent game. Oral Roberts can make 3’s (over 10 per game ranking 15th nationally) and they turn the ball over at a mere 13% rate (11th nationally). They have the ingredients to make this a very dangerous game for Texas Tech. This ORU program has lost a TOTAL of 4 regular season games by more than 10 points since the start of the 2021 season. Take the points here. |
|||||||
12-11-23 | Nets v. Kings OVER 234.5 | Top | 118-131 | Win | 100 | 18 h 47 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 234.5 Brooklyn Nets at Sacramento Kings, 10 PM ET - Brooklyn’s strength offensively is shooting the 3-ball as they are the best in the league in that department at 38.7%. The Kings don’t defend the 3 well allowing 37.5% 3PT shooting by opponents which is 24th in the NBA. Sacramento is more of a volume team as the 11th fastest paced team in the NBA and the 12th most efficient. You won’t find either of these teams in the top half of the league in defensive efficiency ratings either as the Kings rank 20th, the Nets are 17th. The Kings score an average of 120PPG at home while the Nets allow 120PPG on the road. Brooklyn is averaging 120PPG away from home and the Kings give up 119PPG. The Kings are on a 7-2 Over streak at home this season and are on a 34-19 Over run at home dating back to the start of last season. Now that Brooklyn is healthy the offense has started to click with 128, 129, 114 and 124 points in their last four games. With the added rest we like both teams to be fresh and expect the offenses to be locked in. Bet OVER! |
|||||||
12-11-23 | Packers v. Giants UNDER 37 | Top | 22-24 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 18 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 37 Green Bay Packers at NY Giants, Monday 8:15 PM ET - The NFL Under trends and specifically Prime Time TV Unders will continue on Monday night when the Packers and Giants square off in the Meadowlands. Let’s put aside the Under record on MNF of 13-2 on the season and focus on the two teams involved and the given situation. Both teams have struggled to score points this season, especially the Giants who average 13.3PPG on the year. Green Bay is considered ‘average’ in scoring at 21.5PPG. It takes the Giants 19.5 yards gained to score 1-point and Green Bay 15.3 yards gained for a point. Both teams are hovering around average in pace of play, so it won’t be a high possession game. The Packers are below average in total yards per game at 329YPG, rank 13th in yards per play at 5.6, 20th in rushing YPG and 18th in passing YPG. The Giants offensive numbers are brutal as they rank last in the league in yards per game gained, 31st in yards per play, 18th in rushing and 32nd in passing yards. Defensively the Packers allow 20.2PPG which is below the league average of 21.7PPG. The Giants are allowing 24.3PPG but they’ve also faced some of the league highest scoring offenses with two games against the Cowboys, one versus Miami, San Fran and Buffalo. Green Bay is on a 6-3 Under streak their last nine games and the Giants have stayed under in 17 of their last eighteen at home. With potential high winds and adverse conditions, we like a low scoring game here. |
|||||||
12-10-23 | Broncos +3 v. Chargers | Top | 24-7 | Win | 100 | 38 h 3 m | Show |
#123 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Denver Broncos +3 over LA Chargers, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - The Broncos come into this game off a 17-22 loss in Houston last week. Denver has won five of their last six games including wins against the Packers, Bills and Chiefs. Last week the Broncos defense held the Texans offense to 5.6 yards per play and 353 total yards which are less than their season averages of 5.8YPP and 373YPG. The Broncos defense is allowing 6.0YPP and 385YPG on the season but in their last three games that number dips to 5.0YPP and 335YPG. In our opinion the Chargers may be the biggest ‘fraud’ in the NFL this season. The five Bolts wins have come against the Patriots, Jets, Bears, Raiders and Vikings who have a combined 21 wins this season. The LA defense is near the bottom of the NFL in nearly every key category ranking 29th in total yards per game allowed (380), 29th in yards per play allowed (6.0), 17th against the run and 31st in passing yards per game allowed. Now take into consideration some of the offenses/quarterbacks they’ve faced including the Jets, Raiders, Patriots and Bears who all rank 25th or worse in offensive DVOA. The Denver offense has scored 20+ points in 8 of their last eleven games and QB Russell Wilson is quietly putting together a very nice season with 2,385 passing yards and 21 TD’s to 7 INT’s. Wilson has also added 310 rushing yards this season and has picked up crucial 1st downs with his feet when needed. Last season the two games between these two teams were decided by 3-points each. Grab the points here with Denver who wins by 3. |
|||||||
12-10-23 | Bucs v. Falcons OVER 40.5 | Top | 29-25 | Win | 100 | 35 h 58 m | Show |
#113/114 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 40.5 Points - Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons, Sunday at 1 PM ET - This number is slightly higher than the first meeting of the season when the O/U was 37.5 and the two teams involved for 29 total points. So that game stays under a lower total and this number goes up? In the earlier meeting the Falcons racked up over 400 yards of total offense at 6.3 yards per play. The Bucs had 329 total yards of offense at 5.1YPP. There were several red zone opportunities by each team that didn’t result in points including a pair of potential TD’s by the Falcons. Atlanta fumbled at the 1-yard line and fumbled into the endzone for a touchback costing them 14-points. Tampa Bay also threw an interception at the 11-yard line as they were going into score. The Falcons gave up 8-points to the Jets last time out but that was the Jets. Prior to that game this defense allowed only 15-points to the Saints but New Orleans had 440+ total yards of offense which should have led to more points. Prior to that game the Falcons had allowed 25, 31 and 28 points in three straight games. Offensively the Birds had scored 23+ points in 4 straight games before managing just 13 against a good Jets defense in rainy conditions. Tampa Bay has put up 20+ points in 4 of their last five games and the only game they didn’t was against the best defense in the NFL at San Francisco. Defensively the Bucs aren’t as good as their reputation ranking 14th in DVOA (ATL is 25th). The Bucs gave up just 18-points last week to Carolina but the Panthers offense is the worst in the NFL. Before that game the Bucs had allowed 27 to the Colts and 49ers. In the second meeting of the same season between these two teams they have gone Over the number in 4 straight with every one of those games finishing with 47 or more points. |
|||||||
12-09-23 | TCU v. Clemson +1 | Top | 66-74 | Win | 100 | 14 h 28 m | Show |
#664 ASA PLAY ON Clemson pick-em over TCU, Saturday at 4 PM ET - This game is on a neutral court in Toronto - Both teams step into this game undefeated but we have a huge strength of schedule difference between these 2 teams thus far. The Tigers have faced the 50th most difficult slate so far and have 4 top 85 wins including impressive road wins over Alabama and Pittsburgh. In their win @ Bama the Tigers made 10 fewer FT’s (attempted 11 fewer) and STILL won by 8 points over a Crimson Tide team that came into the game on a 20 game home winning streak. TCU is also unbeaten but their SOS thus far ranks 362nd which is the easiest slate so far in the entire country. The Horned Frogs haven’t played a single team ranked inside the top 175 while Clemson has played only 1 team ranked outside the top 175. Every opponent TCU has faced is currently ranked 270th or lower with the exception of Georgetown who ranks 176th and is the 2nd worst team in the Big East ahead of only DePaul. In their game @ Georgetown, TCU’s only game away from home this season, they barely topped the Hoyas 84-83. Both of these teams have shot the ball very well this season (both in the top 25 in eFG%), the problem is TCU has faced FIVE defenses (7 games played this season) vs teams ranked outside the top 300 in efficiency and not a single defense ranked higher than 225th. Meanwhile, Clemson has just played 3 straight teams with defensive efficiency ranks inside the top 100. Despite their weak slate, TCU has struggled to defend the arc allowing 35.2% (267th nationally) and Clemson has hit 41% of their triples this season (7th nationally). The Tigers rarely turn the ball over (36th nationally) and are very good on the defensive boards (27th nationally) which takes away TCU’s strengths of creating turnovers and offensive rebounding. Clemson’s tough schedule has prepared them for this moment while TCU is stepping WAY up in class compared to their previous opponents. Clemson wins this one. |
|||||||
12-09-23 | Grand Canyon v. Liberty -4.5 | Top | 69-64 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
#636 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Liberty -4.5 over Grand Canyon, Saturday at 2 PM ET - Tough spot here for Grand Canyon traveling to the east coast after pulling a huge, court storming win over San Diego State at home on Tuesday. This will be just the 2nd true road game of the season and by far their furthest travel thus far. The Antelopes only other road game was at UT Rio Grande Valley who is rated outside the top 300 per KenPom. Liberty is at home for the 2nd straight game after crushing Mississippi Valley State on Tuesday by 35 and the Flames were able to spread their minutes out nicely so they should be fresh here. Speaking of home, Liberty Arena has been very good to the Flames who’ve won 20 straight games here including topping Villanova last season. Liberty has a number of solid top 140 wins this year beating Wichita State, Furman, Charlotte, and Vermont, all away from home on neutral courts. Their losses have come vs FAU (top 20 team) and Charleston both away from home. While Grand Canyon has played all home games but 1, this Liberty team is 7-2 despite playing only 3 home games so far this season. The Flames return 4 starters from a team that finished with a 27-9 record last year. This veteran team has really shot the ball well (16th nationally in eFG%) and they are facing a Grand Canyon team that struggled to defend the arc allowing 35.5% (276th nationally). The Antelopes rely heavily on getting to the FT line with a whopping 28% of their points this year coming from the stripe (2nd most nationally). They may struggle to get calls on the road in this one and Liberty does very well at limiting fouls. Liberty plays a very slow tempo and should control the pace at home here which should take Grand Canyon out of their game as they love to play fast. This is a really solid situation to lay a small number with a very good team at home. Take Liberty |
|||||||
12-08-23 | Warriors v. Thunder -2.5 | Top | 136-138 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Oklahoma City Thunder -2.5 vs Golden State Warriors, 8:10 PM ET - This will be the 4th meeting of the season between these two teams and the Thunder have already won 2 of the three. If you bet these two teams based on their logos or history, you’ll probably be on the Warriors, but the facts of the matter are, OKC is the better team right now. Golden State stands 10-10 SU on the season and it’s a bye product of two things, poor shooting and lack of defense. The Warriors were 4th in effective FG% a year ago but currently rank 22nd this season. Klay Thompson and Andrew Wiggins are broke right now as Thompson is shooting a career low 39.7% overall and 34.8% from deep. Wiggins has a career shooting average of 44.9% overall and 35.2% from deep but he’s hitting just 42.3% and 26.2% this season. Last year the Warriors were 10th in offensive efficiency at 1.118PPP. This season they rank 14th at 1.107PPP. Golden State has slipped defensively, also ranking 15th in defensive efficiency this season allowing 1.140PPP. Oklahoma City is the 4th best team in the NBA in offensive efficiency and average 119.6PPG with the 3rd best EFG% at 56.2%. The Thunder also play defense with the 7th best DEFF rating in the league and hold foes to the second lowest FG% in the league at 43.7%. The Thunder are a solid home team with a 30-21 SU record dating back to the start of last season with an average +/- of +5.3PPG. Golden State is 17-40 SU their last 57 road games with a negative differential of minus -3.7PPG. OKC is coming off a loss on the road to Houston and will be up for this home date with Golden State. Lay it! |
|||||||
12-08-23 | Illinois-Chicago +1.5 v. Jacksonville State | Top | 55-49 | Win | 100 | 15 h 9 m | Show |
#887 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Illinois Chicago +1.5 over Jacksonville State, Friday at 7 PM ET - Our power ratings have UIC a slight favorite here so value with the Flames as an underdog. They’ve been undervalued all season with a 6-1 mark ATS. UIC as played the much tougher schedule (ranked 118th SOS by KenPom) having faced 4 teams (half of their games) vs teams ranked inside the top 180. Jax State has played the 317th ranked SOS per KenPom and prior to this game vs Illinois Chicago they have played a total of ONE team vs a team ranked inside the top 180 and that was a 13 point loss. Per KenPom’s ratings, the Flames will be the best team Jacksonville State has faced this season (UIC ranked 124th) and the Gamecocks have already lost 4 games vs teams ranked outside the top 200. That includes 2 home game losses vs team ranked 200 or lower. The Flames have had a full week off after back to back losses UNC Greensboro (by 1 point) and vs Illinois State (by 5 points) so we expect them to be very focused on this one. Despite playing the tougher schedule, Illinois Chicago is better on both ends of the court. The Flames average 1.03 PPP offensively while allowing just 0.99 PPP on defense compared to Jax State who averaged 1.01 PPP while giving up 1.03 PPP. UIC has been fantastic defensively all season ranking 15th in eFG% allowed and 2nd nationally guarding the arc allowing opponents to shoot only 23% from deep. They should have their way on that end of the court vs a Gamecock offense that is outside the top 200 in eFG%, 2 point FG%, 3 point FG%, FT%, and scoring. We’ll take the better team getting points with motivation off 2 straight losses. |
Register for an Account Now for Free Picks and More Special Offers!
ASA ALL Sports Top Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
01-19-24 | Hawks v. Heat -6.5 | Top | 109-108 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
01-19-24 | St. Louis +8.5 v. VCU | Top | 61-85 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 26 m | Show |
01-18-24 | Western Kentucky v. New Mexico State -125 | Top | 70-72 | Win | 100 | 16 h 47 m | Show |
01-18-24 | Florida International v. Liberty -12.5 | Top | 69-78 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
01-17-24 | Bucks -3.5 v. Cavs | Top | 95-135 | Loss | -115 | 16 h 11 m | Show |
01-17-24 | Virginia Tech v. Virginia -3.5 | Top | 57-65 | Win | 100 | 16 h 38 m | Show |
01-16-24 | Kings v. Suns -5 | Top | 117-119 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 50 m | Show |
01-16-24 | Coyotes v. Flames OVER 6 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
01-16-24 | Purdue v. Indiana +10.5 | Top | 87-66 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 44 m | Show |
01-15-24 | Pacers +7.5 v. Jazz | Top | 105-132 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 31 m | Show |
01-15-24 | Iowa v. Minnesota -1.5 | Top | 86-77 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
01-14-24 | Kings +5.5 v. Bucks | Top | 142-143 | Win | 100 | 17 h 52 m | Show |
01-14-24 | Packers v. Cowboys OVER 50.5 | Top | 48-32 | Win | 100 | 48 h 12 m | Show |
01-13-24 | Pelicans v. Mavs OVER 231 | Top | 118-108 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
01-13-24 | Dolphins v. Chiefs UNDER 44.5 | Top | 7-26 | Win | 100 | 65 h 47 m | Show |
01-13-24 | Dolphins v. Chiefs -4.5 | Top | 7-26 | Win | 100 | 28 h 2 m | Show |
01-13-24 | Drake v. Southern Illinois +2.5 | Top | 76-58 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 18 m | Show |
01-13-24 | San Diego State v. New Mexico -3.5 | Top | 70-88 | Win | 100 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
01-12-24 | Blazers v. Wolves -14 | Top | 93-116 | Win | 100 | 16 h 22 m | Show |
01-12-24 | Minnesota v. Indiana -4 | Top | 62-74 | Win | 100 | 15 h 56 m | Show |
01-11-24 | Celtics +6 v. Bucks | Top | 102-135 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 58 m | Show |
01-11-24 | Old Dominion v. Georgia State -5.5 | Top | 70-77 | Win | 100 | 16 h 32 m | Show |
01-10-24 | Nuggets -6.5 v. Jazz | Top | 111-124 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 30 m | Show |
01-10-24 | Murray State v. Missouri State -4 | Top | 77-53 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
01-09-24 | Senators v. Flames -122 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 14 h 5 m | Show |
01-09-24 | Texas v. Cincinnati -5 | Top | 74-73 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 57 m | Show |
01-08-24 | Washington +5 v. Michigan | Top | 13-34 | Loss | -113 | 66 h 49 m | Show |
01-08-24 | Thunder -11 v. Wizards | Top | 136-128 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 30 m | Show |
01-07-24 | Bears +3 v. Packers | Top | 9-17 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 44 m | Show |
01-06-24 | Ohio State v. Indiana +1.5 | Top | 65-71 | Win | 100 | 18 h 54 m | Show |
01-05-24 | Magic +9.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 122-120 | Win | 100 | 7 h 2 m | Show |
01-04-24 | Nuggets v. Warriors +3 | Top | 130-127 | Push | 0 | 26 h 43 m | Show |
01-04-24 | Minnesota v. Michigan -6 | Top | 73-71 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 47 m | Show |
01-03-24 | Thunder v. Hawks +2 | Top | 138-141 | Win | 100 | 12 h 0 m | Show |
01-03-24 | Loyola-Chicago v. St. Louis -2 | Top | 80-73 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
01-02-24 | New Mexico v. Colorado State -3 | Top | 68-76 | Win | 100 | 15 h 11 m | Show |
01-02-24 | Celtics v. Thunder +3.5 | Top | 123-127 | Win | 100 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
01-01-24 | Alabama v. Michigan OVER 44.5 | Top | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 19 h 60 m | Show |
12-31-23 | Raiders v. Colts -4 | Top | 20-23 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 7 m | Show |
12-30-23 | Lions v. Cowboys -5 | Top | 19-20 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 49 m | Show |
12-30-23 | Knicks v. Pacers -4.5 | Top | 126-140 | Win | 100 | 6 h 1 m | Show |
12-30-23 | Toledo v. Wyoming -3.5 | Top | 15-16 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 2 m | Show |
12-30-23 | Creighton v. Marquette OVER 150 | Top | 67-72 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 42 m | Show |
12-29-23 | Hornets v. Suns UNDER 231.5 | Top | 119-133 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
12-29-23 | East Tennessee State v. East Carolina -8 | Top | 86-70 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
12-29-23 | Memphis v. Iowa State OVER 57 | Top | 36-26 | Win | 100 | 18 h 54 m | Show |
12-28-23 | Heat v. Warriors -3.5 | Top | 114-102 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
12-28-23 | UCLA v. Oregon State UNDER 128.5 | Top | 69-62 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
12-28-23 | UC-Santa Barbara -2 v. UC-Davis | Top | 62-76 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 28 m | Show |
12-28-23 | Jets v. Browns -7.5 | Top | 20-37 | Win | 100 | 24 h 1 m | Show |
12-28-23 | NC State +2.5 v. Kansas State | Top | 19-28 | Loss | -109 | 21 h 22 m | Show |
12-27-23 | Texas A&M v. Oklahoma State -2 | Top | 23-31 | Win | 100 | 24 h 31 m | Show |
12-27-23 | Knicks v. Thunder -2.5 | Top | 120-129 | Win | 100 | 9 h 47 m | Show |
12-26-23 | Grizzlies v. Pelicans -4.5 | Top | 116-115 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 15 m | Show |
12-25-23 | Ravens v. 49ers UNDER 47 | Top | 33-19 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 43 m | Show |
12-25-23 | 76ers -120 v. Heat | Top | 113-119 | Loss | -120 | 30 h 20 m | Show |
12-25-23 | Warriors v. Nuggets -6.5 | Top | 114-120 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 60 m | Show |
12-24-23 | Browns v. Texans OVER 40 | Top | 36-22 | Win | 100 | 20 h 31 m | Show |
12-23-23 | Coastal Carolina v. San Jose State -8.5 | Top | 24-14 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 25 m | Show |
12-23-23 | Missouri State v. St. Mary's -12.5 | Top | 69-64 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 6 m | Show |
12-23-23 | Grizzlies -117 v. Hawks | Top | 125-119 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
12-23-23 | Bengals v. Steelers OVER 37.5 | Top | 11-34 | Win | 100 | 27 h 54 m | Show |
12-23-23 | Georgia State v. Utah State -120 | Top | 45-22 | Loss | -120 | 20 h 30 m | Show |
12-22-23 | Nuggets v. Nets +4.5 | Top | 122-117 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
12-22-23 | Central Florida -4.5 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 17-30 | Loss | -112 | 21 h 50 m | Show |
12-21-23 | Saints v. Rams -4 | Top | 22-30 | Win | 100 | 37 h 8 m | Show |
12-21-23 | Clippers v. Thunder -4.5 | Top | 115-134 | Win | 100 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
12-21-23 | Capitals v. Blue Jackets OVER 6 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -118 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
12-21-23 | Jacksonville State v. Arkansas-Little Rock -2.5 | Top | 90-60 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 7 m | Show |
12-20-23 | North Carolina -2.5 v. Oklahoma | Top | 81-69 | Win | 100 | 14 h 57 m | Show |
12-20-23 | Hawks v. Rockets -3 | Top | 134-127 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
12-20-23 | Nuggets -4 v. Raptors | Top | 113-104 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
12-19-23 | Celtics v. Warriors UNDER 235 | Top | 126-132 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 29 m | Show |
12-19-23 | Lindenwood v. Missouri State -17.5 | Top | 57-79 | Win | 100 | 6 h 34 m | Show |
12-18-23 | Wizards v. Kings OVER 247 | Top | 131-143 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
12-18-23 | Eagles v. Seahawks OVER 45 | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
12-18-23 | Jacksonville State v. Tarleton St UNDER 126.5 | Top | 65-62 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 10 m | Show |
12-18-23 | Western Kentucky v. Old Dominion -3 | Top | 38-35 | Loss | -110 | 68 h 56 m | Show |
12-17-23 | Rockets +7 v. Bucks | Top | 119-128 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 34 m | Show |
12-17-23 | Bucs v. Packers -3 | Top | 34-20 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 5 m | Show |
12-17-23 | Bears v. Browns UNDER 38 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 20 h 31 m | Show |
12-16-23 | Broncos v. Lions -4 | Top | 17-42 | Win | 100 | 53 h 24 m | Show |
12-16-23 | Hawks v. Cavs -2.5 | Top | 119-127 | Win | 100 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
12-16-23 | UCLA v. Boise State UNDER 48 | Top | 35-22 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 7 m | Show |
12-16-23 | UNLV v. St. Mary's -5 | Top | 67-69 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 16 m | Show |
12-16-23 | New Mexico State -3.5 v. Fresno State | Top | 10-37 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 21 m | Show |
12-15-23 | Senators v. Stars OVER 6.5 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 102 | 4 h 13 m | Show |
12-15-23 | Magic v. Celtics -6 | Top | 111-128 | Win | 100 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
12-13-23 | Pacers v. Bucks UNDER 259 | Top | 126-140 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
12-13-23 | Pelicans v. Wizards OVER 241 | Top | 142-122 | Win | 100 | 8 h 36 m | Show |
12-12-23 | Warriors v. Suns -3 | Top | 116-119 | Push | 0 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
12-12-23 | Oral Roberts +13 v. Texas Tech | Top | 76-82 | Win | 100 | 8 h 34 m | Show |
12-11-23 | Nets v. Kings OVER 234.5 | Top | 118-131 | Win | 100 | 18 h 47 m | Show |
12-11-23 | Packers v. Giants UNDER 37 | Top | 22-24 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 18 m | Show |
12-10-23 | Broncos +3 v. Chargers | Top | 24-7 | Win | 100 | 38 h 3 m | Show |
12-10-23 | Bucs v. Falcons OVER 40.5 | Top | 29-25 | Win | 100 | 35 h 58 m | Show |
12-09-23 | TCU v. Clemson +1 | Top | 66-74 | Win | 100 | 14 h 28 m | Show |
12-09-23 | Grand Canyon v. Liberty -4.5 | Top | 69-64 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
12-08-23 | Warriors v. Thunder -2.5 | Top | 136-138 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
12-08-23 | Illinois-Chicago +1.5 v. Jacksonville State | Top | 55-49 | Win | 100 | 15 h 9 m | Show |