PLAY ON: #719/720 OVER 139 IDAHO STATE vs SACRAMENTO STATE, 8:30PM ET - This is clearly one of our computer plays and based on value and year long, in conference statistics. When these two teams met earlier this year the Vegas Total was set at 146 and this line opened 143 before dropping to 139. That's a full 7 points of value compared to the earlier meeting! Our math on this game suggests 148 total points and we couldn't agree more with it. The Big Sky league average is 150PPG. Both of these teams rank near the bottom of the entire country in defensive efficiency ratings as Idaho State allows 1.119PPP (339th) while Sacramento State allows 1.118PPP which is 338th out of 351 D1 schools.  Easy OVER call here.  

ASA PLAY ON 10* OVER 133, UW Milwaukee vs Northern Kentucky, Tuesday at 7:00 PM ET

This total opened 136.5 and has dropped to 133 and we’re jumping on the value here.  Our math model has this one at 144 so now we’re getting double digit value to the OVER.  We have two of the better shooting teams in the Horizon facing off in this one.  N Kentucky is the #1 eFG% team in the conference and UWM is 3rd.  Both also rank in the bottom half of the league in defensive efficiency.  For the season NKU is averaging 75 PPG but they’ve really turned it up as of late averaging 84 PPG over their last 5.  The Norse have scored 84 & 82 points in their two Horizon League tourney games.  Milwaukee has put up 70 PPG over their last 5 and that includes an offensive stinker in the 2nd game of this tourney when they beat Valpo 43-41.  Throw that game out the window as Valpo played without their leading scorer and conference player of the year (Peters) which took a big portion of their offense out of the lineup.  The two teams were also both had a horrendous shooting night combining to make only 31 shots the entire game (32% from the field).  They also made just 9 of 39 combined from beyond the arc.  Just one of those games.  In their other two games in the tourney UWM put up 85 & 74 points.  When these two met this year they had lower scoring games with the combined numbers at 132 & 126.  That, however, sets this total up too low with how these offenses are playing now.  Also with UWM playing their 4th game in 5 nights and NKU playing their 3rd straight night, the defenses could tire here.  Finally, with an NCAA tourney bid on the line, there will be no “give up” in this one so their will most likely be some scrambling and fouling late depending on the score.  We like the OVER here.

We are going to play UNDER in the Central Michigan versus Kent State game. Our Math Model suggests a total output on this game of 160 which is well below the opening total set on this game of 170.5. Since the line came out this game has been bet down to 166.5 but there is still value in the number per our computers. CMU just played Western Michigan who is a more efficient offense compared to Kent and worse defensively and CMU/WMU scored 168 total points which is barely more than tonight’s number. Kent is the 4th most efficient defense in the MAC and they’ve held 5 straight opponents to less than 70 points. In that 5 games run the Zips held the MAC’s #1 offensive efficiency team, Akron, to 66 and 67 points in two games. Granted Central Michigan’s defense hasn’t been good this season and especially poor lately but in their last five game, four team have been better than Kent’s which is 9th in the MAC in OEFF and 10th in eFG% shooting just 48.3%. In the lone meeting, earlier this season between these two teams they combined for 203 total points by 35 game in OT. With the pressure of the tourney on both teams we don’t see them getting near that number today. BET UNDER!

ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 137, UNC Greensboro vs East Tennessee State, Monday at 7:00 PM ET on ESPN2

Our math model, which has been very successful on college totals down the stretch, has this one pegged at 147 so a double digit advantage for the OVER here.  These two met twice this year with the totals set at 144 & 145 which is well above where this one is set.  The two meetings ended with final scores of 83-79 (162 points) and 72-66 (138 points).  In the game that reached 162 points, both teams shot well hitting right around 50% of their shots.  However, in the game that made it to 138, which would go OVER the current number, that was not the case.  In that game the two teams combined to make only 42% of their shots and 35% of their 3’s.  Nothing fantastic there and the still nearly hit 140.  UNCG and ETSU are two of the faster paced teams in the Southern Conference (2nd and 3rd in tempo) and they both shoot the ball well (2nd and 3rd in conference eFG%).  In conference play, including the Southern Tourney thus far, ETSU has reached at least 70 points in 15 of their 20 games (75%).  UNCG has gotten to at least 70 points in 16 of their 20 games (80%).  If both get to 70, this one goes OVER.  We think they do.  Take the value with the OVER in this one.

The analytics on the South Dakota vs. South Dakota State says bet OVER 152 and we couldn't agree more. The Summit is one of the faster paced, higher scoring conferences in the country and not known for their defense. Summit league games this year have averaged 159.3PPG and today we have a total set that is less than 'average'. South Dakota has the best DEFF in the conference play, allowing 1.029 points per possession but their overall defensive efficiency rating is 156th in the nation or not very good. South Dakota State is 7th in the Summit in DEFF in conference play and 329th (out of 352) in the nation in DEFF allowing 1.096PPP. On the other side of the ball, South Dakota State has the 52nd best offensive efficiency rating in all of college basketball this season at 1.078PPP and in just conference play that number improves to 1.162PPP. South Dakota is 7th in the Summit in OEFF, which doesn't sound great, but they are 127th in the country overall at 1.035PPP which is good. These same two teams just met in late February and combined for 180 total points and Vegas has adjusted this number down on this game compared to the earlier meeting. In their last five games SDST and their opponents are averaging 164 total points. In that same 5 game span, SDAK, combined with their foe is averaging 168 total points.  Combined these two are 19-5 OVER run in Summit league play. 

TOP TOTAL - OVER Denver vs South Dakota State, 7pm ET - Based on our analytics the total points scored in this game will be 159 which is well above the posted total. In both teams last five games they've been shooting the ball exceptionally well as Denver, as a team, is hitting nearly 47% from the field while South Dakota State is shooting 50%. On the other end of the court neither team has played much defense lately either. Denver has allowed foes to make nearly 50% of their FG attempts while SDST has allowed opponents to make 47%. The last game these two teams played was against each other on this same court Feb 25th and that game had a total of 154.5 on the game and they combined for 152 total points. Denver has the 3rd best eFG% in the Summit at 55.5% and South Dakota State has the 3rd worst efficiency defense in the conference but yet Denver scored just 64 points (10 less than season average) on 41% shooting. Denver has played OVER the total in 17 of their last 22 Summit league games while SDST is on a 10-4 OVER run in conference games. Let's not forget the league average for Summit league games this year is 159.3PPG. Bet OVER! 

ASA PLAY ON 10* Minnesota +6.5 over Wisconsin, Sunday at 6:00 PM ET

Wisky continues to get the respect of oddsmakers despite losing 5 of their last 6.  This team is struggling right now.  They led Iowa by 9 on Thursday with just over 3:00 remaining in the game and what would normally be an absolute win for Wisky in that spot turned into a 2 point loss.  They are a bad FT shooting team (just 5 of 14 vs Iowa) and something is off with this team right now.  Can they right the ship on Senior night?  Possibly but even if they do get a win, we expect it to be a close game.  The Gophs are the hottest team in the Big Ten right now winning 8 straight games including 4 straight on the road.  Minny has lost 6 straight to Wisconsin and they have revenge here after losing at home in OT in January 78-76.  The Badgers were playing very well at that time and still needed OT to win the game.  That isn’t the case anymore.  The Gophs have covered 7 of their last 8 while the Badgers have lost 7 of 8 to the number.  Can Wisconsin keep up here?  Minnesota’s offense is averaging 83 PPG over their last 5 while UW is putting up just 66 PPG.  Wisconsin may win this, although we’re not so sure, but even if they do we expect it to go to the wire.  Take the points.

ASA PLAY ON: #827 Boston Celtics (-6.5) @ Phoenix Suns, 5PM ET - We're going to lay the points with Boston on the road over Phoenix. The Suns have won two straight home games but in both cases (OKC and Charlotte) they caught their opponents in bad scheduling situation. Today they get a Boston team that is the second best team in the East and playing well and has the 5th best road differential in the NBA at +1.9PPG (only 5 teams have a positive road DIFF on the road).  On the flip side the Suns are off a home win and have been horrible in this situation with a 4-16 SU record off a win, 1-9 SU at home. Phoenix also has the 4th worst home differential in the NBA at minus -2.3PPG. Boston has covered 14 of their last 20 on the road off a win and should get a double digit win here. 

ASA PLAY ON 10* Northwestern +3.5 over Purdue, Sunday at 4:30 PM ET

The Boilers have absolutely nothing to play for here.  They clinched the outright Big Ten title on Thursday night when Wisconsin lost at home to Iowa.  Most of the PU players were gathered together watching Iowa hit a 3 pointer with 9 seconds left to beat the Badgers by 2.  Word is the room erupted as the Boilermakers accomplished their goal of winning the Big Ten.  Now traveling to NW, a team they beat by 20+ earlier this year, might be a tough spot for this Purdue team to bring their best.  Not to mention PU is a MUCH better team at home than they are on the road.  They are just 5-4 this year in true road games with 4 of those wins coming by margins of 1, 1, 4 and 5 points.  This is Northwestern’s final home game and while their win earlier this week vs Michigan may have pushed them into the Big Dance for the first time ever, it’s not a 100% lock quite yet.  A win here over Purdue would guarantee an NCAA tourney bid.  The Cats will also have some extra motivation here after playing one of their worst games of the year @ Purdue losing 80-59.  NW shot just 35% in that game and made only 2 of their 14 three point attempts.  The Boilers made 52% from beyond the arc in that win.  NW also played that game without one of their top players Lindsay who has since returned.  We like NW to win this game outright at home on Sunday.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 147.5, North Dakota State vs IUPUI, Saturday at 9:30 PM ET

Our computer math model, which has been extremely accurate with college totals over the last month or so, predicts 155 on this game so we’ll go OVER.  These two met twice this season with the two teams totaling 182 & 167, albeit the 2nd one was in overtime.  The Summit League is not known for their defensive prowess as league games average 159 PPG this year.  Both are solid shooting teams and IUPUI puts up 78 PPG while NDSU averages 76 PPG.  IUPUI’s defense allows the highest shooting % in the Summit at 47.3%.  They allowed over 80 points in more than half of their conference games this year (9 of 17).  While NDSU did play solid defense at times this year, when they faced the top scoring offenses in the league, they nearly all led to high scoring games.  When facing IUPUI, IPFW, and Nebraska Omaha (6 games vs these opponents), the 3 top scoring teams in the conference, only once did a game end under 150 points.  These teams have played to the OVER all season long combining for a 36-14 OVER record.  This one is set too low and we like another high scoring affair.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Notre Dame +8 over Louisville, Saturday at 2:00 PM ET on CBS

Louisville went through a stretch mid-season where they were throttling teams.  That red hot stretch ended in early February and now this team simply isn’t playing all that well.  They are 4-3 their last 7 games and 3 of their 4 wins have come by 5 points or fewer.  This Cardinal team needs to create turnovers for their offense to flow as they are simply not a great shooting team ranking 138th in eFG%.  The Irish are not a great match up for this team.  That’s because they don’t turn the ball over.  ND gives the ball away just 14% of the time which is the 3rd best mark in the nation.  They are always a dangerous underdog because they shoot the ball so well (36th nationally in eFG%) and they make their FT’s (81% for #1 in the nation).  Notre Dame hit a slow streak in late January but have since ripped off 6 consecutive wins.  They beat Louisville 77-70 earlier this year and had only 12 turnovers in the game.  Again, that’s the recipe for beating U of L and the Irish do it as well as anyone.  The Irish have lost only 2 games this year by more than 8 points (where this spread currently stands) and even if they lose here, we expect a tight game throughout.  They’ve also proven they can get it done on the road with a 5-2 SU record in true road games.  With Louisville struggling a bit, we take ND to cover this spread and feel they have a solid shot at the upset.

Today we play UNDER in the Central Michigan at Western Michigan game. The number on this game opened around 175 and has since been played down to the current number but we still feel there is plenty of value left with an UNDER wager. Our math suggests a total output on this game of 161.5 which is significantly less than the total set on this MAC clash. These same ‘Michigan’ teams recently met in Central and produced 168 total points. Western is the more dominate team here, at home, and they’ll instill their will on the flow of the game which means a slower tempo contest. WMU is 11th in the conference in pace of play and will do everything to keep CMU from playing fast (1st in MAC). The average total points scored in MAC games this year is 152. Western Michigan has been especially stingy defensively their last three games having allowed 56 or less points in each of those games, and one was an OT affair. CMU is shooting just 38.7% their last five games and will have some issues scoring here against the Broncos. Based on comparable opponents we predict a total right around 160. BET UNDER!

We are going to play OVER in the OKC Thunder @ Portland Trailblazers game. The current Total on this game is hovering around 219 total points which is 8-points higher than the league average but we still feel there is enough value for an OVER wager. These two teams are both in the top 10 of the league in terms of pace of play and both are in the top half of the NBA in offensive efficiency ratings. OKC may be 10th in defensive efficiency ratings but Portland is 4th worst. In their last four games the Thunder have scored 109 or more points in every game and they've given up 105 or more in three of the four. Portland is allowing an average of 111PPG their last five games with opponents hitting over 45% from the field against them. There will be some fantastic guard play tonight with Lillard, McCollum and Russell Westbrook on the court and we expect a fast paced high scoring affair. BET OVER!

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 5.5 goals in Boston Bruins vs New York Rangers, Thursday at 7:05 PM ET

Though the Rangers have lost two straight, the defeats came at the hands of two of the best teams in the league. With that said, this Thursday match-up features two hot teams squaring off in Boston. Before the Rangers lost back to back games to the Blue Jackets and Capitals, New York had won 9 of its last 11 games and, for the most part, the offense led the way. The Rangers are averaging 3.3 goals per game this season and they now face a red hot Bruins offense in this one. Boston has won 10 of its last 13 games and the Bruins have averaged scoring 4 goals per game during this red hot 13-game stretch. With plenty of potent offensive weapons on both sides of the ice in this one, look for a high-scoring match-up in Boston tonight. The over has cashed in 16 of 22 times in Rangers games against teams with a winning record this season. The over has cashed in 15 of 23 times this season in Boston's games against teams with a winning record. Also, the Bruins are on a long-term 55-31 run to the over in games against opponents with a winning record. 4 of the last 5 meetings between these clubs have resulted in 7 goals scored. With this total sitting at a 5.5, and considering the current trending of these teams toward the over, we raise the level of this one to a Top Play.. There have only been 6 unders in the Rangers last 29 games and the Bruins are on a 10-3-1 run to the over in their last 14 games. Bet the OVER in Boston in this one early Thursday evening.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Illinois -2 over Michigan State, Wednesday at 9:00 PM ET

Tough spot here for a very young MSU team.  They are off a huge home win on Sunday vs a struggling Wisconsin team and now take the road a few days later.  While Sparty has been tough at home, they are just 2-6 on the road this season.  MSU has a road scoring margin of -8 PPG and they are allowing opponents to shoot 47%.  That happens with a young team.  The defense has problems on the road.  This will be the first road game MSU has had to play without starting senior guard Eron Harris who was lost for the season in a loss @ Purdue on February 18th.They are facing an Illini team that is absolutely peaking to close out the regular season.  Illinois has won 4 of their last 5 games and their defense has been outstanding down the stretch.  And speaking of defense, U of I has been lock down on that end of the court as of late.  Over the last 5 games the Illini defense has allowed opponents just 0.93 points per possession.  Illinois is a veteran team playing their final home game of the season.  They still have hopes of an NCAA berth but must win this one and @ last place Rutgers this weekend to get to 9-9 in the Big Ten and 19-12 overall heading into the conference tourney.  We’ll take Illinois here.

ASA PLAY ON: OVER 140 in the Western Michigan @ Northern Illinois game. The MAC conference as a whole is very high scoring conference as their games average 152 total points on the season, and tonight we have value with this number that has simply been set to low. Based on our projections this game should finish with 149 total points and go OVER the number. These same two teams just met in mid-February and totaled 143 total points in Western Michigan. NIU hit just 39% from the field overall and made just 5 of 19 3-pointers. WMU didn't have a great shooting night either at just 43% and they missed 9 free throws as a team but combined they still scored 143 which would net a winner here. You can expect a much better shooting night from the Huskies tonight as they have shot over 44% as a team at home this season while Western Michigan has hit an average over 45% their last five games and scored nearly 80PPG. WMU recently played an Eastern Michigan team that is very similar in terms of pace, OEFF and DEFF to Northern Illinois and they combined for 168 total points.  We can also make the comparison between Akron and WMU (tempo, OEFF and DEFF) and see that NIU recently played the Zips and they combined for 149 total points. 

UNDER EASTERN MICHIGAN @ CENTRAL MICHIGAN - We nailed another easy Total winner last night in college as our late season predictive math model is honed in. Today our favorite O/U wager on the board is UNDER in the Eastern Michigan @ Central Michigan game. Our projected number on this game is 158 which is substantially lower than the Vegas number. When looking at a few comparable opponents (Kent State and No. Illinois) to Eastern Michigan we find Central Michigan scored 170 and 155 versus NIU and 166 versus Kent State (*In regulation*). Those two teams have similar tempo and efficiency ratings to EMU which gives us a great baseline for tonight’s contest. On the flip side, there are some similar numbers for Ball State and Central Michigan and when Eastern played Ball State twice this season they totaled 166 and 151. These two Michigan teams have already squared off this season and that game ended with 148 total points. EMU is shooting just 42.9% on the road this year and CMU is struggling shooting at just 39.8% as a team their last five games. The UNDER is 8-1 the last nine meetings with the highest total points scored in the last 10 meetings being 179 which barely crawls over tonight’s number. In fact, the average total points scored in the last 10 clashes is just 130 total points per game. 

We will play UNDER 164 in the UL Lafayette @ Appalachian State game. Vegas posted a number on this game of 166 and it was immediately bet down to 164 but it hasn’t moved enough per our predictive math model which suggests a total of 152 on this game. Let’s not forget the Sunbelt league average total points scored per game is 143.7PPG so you can see for yourself this number is over-inflated. Yes, these are two of the faster paced teams in the conference but based on comparable opponents this game won’t come close to the posted Total. Appalachian State shoots just 40.3% at home on the season which makes them one of the worst shooting teams at home in the Sun Belt, and they allow just 43.7% at home which is drastically better than their overall season % allowed. They average and allow less than 70PPG when playing at home on the season. ULL struggles to shoot on the road at just 42.6% and their road contests have averaged just 153 total points per game. App State has played UNDER in 8 of their last eleven at home. BET UNDER! 

OVER 137.5 Illinois @ Nebraska, 7:30PM ET – We wish we could bet this game at the opening line of 133 but even though we can’t, we still feel there is enough value to play OVER on this number. In fact, our math model projects 142 total points on this game and we feel it will be even higher than that. In the first meeting of the season these two teams combined for 145 total points which pushed the Vegas number. These two teams are both in the bottom half of the Big 10 in terms of offensive efficiency ratings but they are also in the bottom of the conference in defensive efficiency ratings. Illinois allows 1.056 points per possession and Nebraska allows 1.063PPP. On the season the Illini are averaging 143 total points per game with their opponents when playing on the road while Nebraska home games have averaged that same number of 143. Granted, Illinois averages are down their past 5 games but they played Northwestern twice in that 5-game span and they are the 3rd slowest paced team in the Big Ten and one of the better defensive teams. The Cornhuskers are 5th in the Big Ten in pace of play and they’ll set the tempo at home today. The bet here is OVER the total!

PLAY ON: Washington Wizards (-1.5) over Utah Jazz, 5PM ET – Washington is in a great spot here as they are off an upset loss to Philly and should bounce back in a big way at home (10-2 SU this year off a loss and playing at home). Utah on the other hand is off a road win. Washington has been near unbeatable at home with wins in 19 of their last 20 and the lone L came against the East leading Cavaliers. The Wiz have an average home point differential of +6PPG which is one of the better numbers in the league. Utah has been solid on the road all season long with a +2PPG differential but they are just 3-8 ATS their last 11 away from home. Washington has covered 4 of their last 5 at home against a team with a winning road record and have covered 7 of their last 9 off a loss. Play Washington today!

PLAY ON: #711/712 OVER 154.5 IPFW @ Western Illinois, 8:30PM ET – We just successfully played over in a Western Illinois game earlier this week and tonight they face one of the fastest paced teams in the Summit League in IPFW. The Summit League is known for faster paced, higher scoring teams and not known for their defense. Conference games this year have averaged 158.6PPG and today’s number offers some value. When these same two teams met earlier this season they combined for 184 total points and an OVER which tie into a trend for these two conference foes.  IPFW has a 22-8 OVER record their last 30 conference games, while WIU has played OVER in 14 of their last 18 in Summit League play. In their most recent action, IPFW (+ foe) is averaging 174 total points per game while Western Illinois and their opponents are averaging 156PPG. Vegas has set this number a shade too low and we’ll step in with a play on the OVER! 

ASA #857 Brooklyn Nets (+10) @ Denver Nuggets, 9PM ET - The Nuggets are off a game last night in Sacramento which resulted in a 16-point road loss. They shot 44% for game which isn’t horrible but they didn’t play much defense, allowing the Kings to hit 52% from the field, 50% from the beyond the arc. Denver is just 2-10 SU (4-8 ATS) when playing without rest this season with an average loss margin of 9PPG. Because of the higher altitude in Denver the schedule makers typically don't schedule the Nuggets to play at home the second night of a back to backs. In fact, it's only happened 12 times since the start of the 2014 season and the Nuggets are a pathetic 1-11 SU & ATS in those games. Brooklyn is playing better even though it hasn’t translated to a ton of wins but they have covered 3 of their last five games and have a negative differential of -6PPG which is nearly 3-points better than their season differential. Of their last 9 losses, none have come by more than 9-points or tonight’s spread. We’re not sure how Denver is a favorite of this size when their defense is allowing over 51% shooting their last five games and even the All-Star break didn’t fix that. Brooklyn clearly isn’t a great defensive team but the Nuggets are last in the league in defensive efficiency ratings allowing 1.134 points per possession. In the lone meeting this season the Nets did win at home by 5-points which is 6th straight time they’ve beaten Denver. Grab the points with Brooklyn. 

Today we play UNDER 176.5 in the Central Michigan @ Toledo game. The league average total points scored per game in the MAC this year is 152 and today we have a Total that is set nearly 20 points higher. Our predictive model projects a total on this game that is full 12-points less than the number Vegas has posted which is HIGHLY unusual. Toledo is the dominate team here and will dictate tempo which is key. The Rockets are 12th in the conference when it comes to tempo or pace so they’ll want to play slow. Not to mention they are coming off a huge game against Western Michigan and have a bigger game on deck versus Ball State. Yes, the Chippewas want to play fast (1st in MAC pace) but again, Toledo won’t allow it. On their home floor, in conference games, the Rockets and their opponents have NOT totaled more than 167 points and those contests averaged 142 total points. In the first meeting of the season these two combined for 184 total points but that was at Central Michigan. CMU has had issues shooting the basketball of late as they are averaging less than 42% as a team from the field their last five games. The UNDER has cashed 7 of the last 9 meetings and should win again tonight with this inflated number!

PLAY ON: OVER 146 SOUTH DAKOTA @ WESTERN ILLINOIS - We have a fantastic play for you tonight on the OVER in the South Dakota @ Western Illinois game. This Summit League game has all the makings of a very high scoring game and we expect plenty of points by both teams here. When we run the numbers through our predictive math model we come up with a Total that is 6.5 points higher than the posted number tonight. That’s a substantial difference by our algorithm and immediately gets our attention. Summit League games average 158 total points per game and this number set by Vegas is substantially lower than that. S Dakota is the 2nd fastest paced team in the conference and Western Illinois is the 4th fastest. Defensively these two teams are top four in terms of efficiency ratings but ‘defense’ is a loose term in this conference and both teams have been giving up a ton of points lately. South Dakota has given up an average of 80PPG their last five games on 46% shooting by opponents. In that same 5 games span Western Illinois has allowed 83PPG on 48% shooting by foes. There is one team in the conference that is very like both teams and that’s Nebraska-Omaha. South Dakota recently played at NEOM and they combined for 174 total points. Western Illinois hosted NEOM on Feb 1st and they combined for 146 total points. The Over has cashed in 5 straight SD road games. The Over is also 9-3 the last Western Illinois home games. See the trend…BET OVER!

ASA UNDER  147.5 in the Louisiana Tech @ North Texas game, 8PM ET - Based on our math model this game projects out to have under 143.5 total points and we agree with its prognosis. The league average for total points scored in this conference 142 and we feel these two teams will be much closer to that number than the one Vegas has posted. When these same two teams met in late January they combined for 138 total points which was the O/U the oddsmakers had suggested. Which also shows the value we are getting here as tonight's number is much higher than the 138 from the first meeting. North Texas is the 3rd worst efficiency offensive team in the conference at just .956 points per possession and the 309th (out of 351) overall eFG% team in the nation at just 47%. The Mean Green will have a hard time scoring here against a La Tech team that has the 3rd best efficiency defense in Conference USA, allowing just .954 points per possession. The Bulldogs average 80PPG at home on the season but that number dips to just 72PPG on the road. With La Tech being the superior team they'll dictate tempo in this one and should keep this from being a high scoring affair. In their 7 conference road games the Bulldogs and their opponents have average 138 combined total points. 

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Anaheim Ducks Money Line over Boston Bruins, Wednesday at 10:35 PM ET

The Ducks are off of a tough loss at Arizona where they not only out shot the Coyotes by a sizable margin for the game, Anaheim out shot them in every single period. It was a strong effort for the Ducks and yet they ended up with nothing to show for it. This most definitely will result in an intense effort from Anaheim tonight. The Ducks have dominated the Bruins in recent meetings and, with a win already at Boston in December, are going for their third straight season series sweep. The Bruins have won 4 straight games entering tonight's match-up but Boston's win at San Jose Sunday was the first time this season that Boston was able to make it a 4-game run. The Bruins had lost all 4 times this season when entering a game on a winning streak of 3 games or more. Boston is now in the wrong place at the wrong time to extend that run as the Ducks have won 46 of their last 70 home games with a total set at 5 goals. Anaheim is hungry to get right back into the win column and the Bruins win over the Sharks was just their 2nd victory in their last 6 road games. The point is that Boston is getting a lot of positive press right now due to their winning streak since the coaching change but most of their recent wins have been at home and now they're being tremendously tested on the road. We don't foresee this one ending well for the Bruins as Anaheim has outscored them 14 to 5 in the last 3 meetings. Grab the fantastic line value with the Ducks on the money line in what should be a home ice blowout late Wednesday night.

PLAY ON: MARYLAND (-4) over Minnesota - We love the spot to play on the Maryland Terrapins over the visiting Minnesota Gophers. While Minnesota is coming off a hard fought, emotional home win over Michigan and in for a letdown, the Terps are off a disappointing loss on the road in Wisconsin. We expect a bounce back here for Maryland who is a solid 12-3 SU at home with a point differential of +8PPG. Minnesota is 4-4 SU on the road this year but they’ve struggled shooting it away from home by hitting just 40% from the field. In terms of defensive efficiency rating these two teams are relatively even allowing 1.005 points per possession (Maryland) and 1.004 PPP (Minnesota) but in terms of offense the Terps are MUCH better. Maryland has the 3rd most efficient offense in the Big Ten at 1.082PPP while the Gophers are 11th in the conference at 1.023PPP. MD has the 4th best eFG% shooting statistics in the B10 at 53.7% while the Gophers are 12th at 46.9%. Maryland has covered 12 of their last 16 Conference games while the Gophs are 7-9 ATS their last 16 conference roadies. We expect Maryland to get off to a good start at home and Minnesota just doesn’t have an offense capable of playing catchup. Lay the points!

ASA 10* PLAY ON: #765/766 OVER the 141 Total Furman @ East Tennessee State, 7PM ET-  We are going to play OVER the Total in the East Tennessee State versus Furman tonight in the Southern Conference showdown. First place is on the line tonight as Furman currently leads the SoCon with a 13-3 record but ETSU is right behind them at 12-3. These are basically the top two teams in the SoCon in terms of offensive and defensive efficiency ratings and when we look at similar teams and home/road dichotomies we expect a high scoring game tonight. ETSU starts 4 seniors who will be playing their final home game in front of a sellout crowd (lead conference in attendance and the fans will be rabid tonight). The Bucs are also playing with same season revenge as they had a HORRIBLE shooting night at Furman (14% from 3-point line, 37% overall) and lost 62-75 for 137 Total points. That was uncharacteristic for ETSU who is the 7thth best shooting team in the nation at 49.3%. Furman can also light it up from the field as they rank 40th in the country in shooting at 47.4% as a team. As we touched on earlier, Furman is 2nd in the SoCon in offensive efficiency ratings at 1.111 points per possession and have the 2nd best eFG% at 56.9%. They typically take 17.9 seconds to get a shot off which is 6th in the conference. ETSU is 3rd in offensive efficiency ratings at 1.110PPP and 1st in eFG% at 57.7%. They play fast too, averaging just 16.1 seconds to take a shot which is 2nd fastest in the SoCon. East Tenn State has a goal of getting to 80 points as they are a perfect 12-0 SU this year when they top that mark. Our Math Model projects a Total of 146.5 on this game and the league average is nearly 148PPG so you can see for yourself the value we are getting at 141. 

ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON: OVER 5.5 goals: Chicago Blackhawks at Minnesota Wild, Tuesday at 8:05 PM ET

The Blackhawks are off of a 5-1 win at Buffalo on Sunday. That marked the 6th time that Chicago has scored 4 goals or more in their last 7 games! Minnesota is also off of a big win, 5-2 versus Nashville, and the Wild have scored 4 goals or more in more than half of their games the last 5 weeks. Even though this is a big divisional match-up and one might expect a lower-scoring game as a result, both of these teams are "clicking" right now in the offensive zone! Also, in their last meeting two weeks ago they combined for 7 goals and both meetings between these clubs this season have totaled at least 67 shots on goal. The Wild are 14-6 to the over this season after a victory that was decided by a margin of 2 goals or more. That was a divisional win, versus Nashville, and the Wild are 13-5 to the over this season when off of a divisional game. The Blackhawks are on a 13-3-1 run to the over in their last 17 games and we just don't see either teams blue liners being able to dictate the pace of this game. As a result, look for a highly entertaining divisional battle with plenty of goals in this one as the forwards continue to create scoring chances at a great clip. Bet the OVER in Minnesota Tuesday night.

We are going to play UNDER 146 in the Purdue @ Penn State game tonight. We love several different dynamics to this wager including a line that is 6-points higher than Big Ten games average, plus the fact a high percentage of public money has been bet on the OVER already but the line isn't moving. That tells me they'll take all the action they can on OVER because they like UNDER. Purdue is in a tough scheduling spot here and could be flat for this contest. They are off a big win over Michigan State and have a road date at Michigan on deck. Plus, they beat this PSU team 77-52 earlier this season. The Boilermakers have the 2nd best defensive efficiency rating in the Big Ten allowing just .97 points per possession. In their last five contests they have held foes to an average of just 38.3% shooting which is ridiculously low. Penn State is 'average' or 7th in the Big Ten in DEFF allowing 1.016PPP and they've been solid at home defensively allowing just 68.7PPG on their home floor and 40.4% shooting by opponents.  Both teams struggle shooting when on the road (Purdue 42.1%) and at home (PSU 41.5%). The Nittany Lions just hosted a very similar team to Purdue (OEFF, DEFF and pace) in Maryland a few weeks back and they combined for 134 total points. Purdue hosted Rutgers just last week who has very similar stats to Penn State and they combined for 129 total points. The Under is on a 19-6 run the last 25 meetings, 4-1 Under last 5 games for Purdue and 9-4 L13 home games for PSU. 

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia Flyers Money Line over Vancouver Canucks, Sunday at 10:05 PM ET

The Flyers have been struggling and now this is their only chance to 'right the ship' in an otherwise 'quiet' part of their schedule as they face the Canucks Sunday night. Philadelphia had 2 days off coming into this game and they'll have 2 days off before their next game Wednesday in Philly. With that said, we expect a very focused Flyers team to take the ice in Vancouver tonight. Philly knows this is a critical game to 'stop the bleeding' as they look to keep their playoff hopes alive. Philadelphia is catching the Canucks at the right time as Vancouver is off of a tight win over Calgary last night. Not only was that a big divisional win for the Canucks, they also could be peeking ahead to their bye week here as they have 5 days off after this game! Vancouver has only won back to back games once since early January. In fact, prior to their win over the Flames, the Canucks had lost 12 of their last 18 games. Vancouver has lost 17 of 26 divisional games this season and the Flyers have won their last two meetings with the Canucks by a combined score of 7 to 4. With Philly off of back to back losses they'll respond here. The Flyers have not only outshot their opponent in 5 straight games, they've outshot them by a double digit margin in 4 of the 5 games. We expect their strong efforts to finally be rewarded here. Lay the small price with the Flyers on the money line in what should be a road rout Sunday night.

ASA 10STAR PLAY ON: #862 @MINNESOTA (-1) over Michigan, 7PM ET We like the situation to play on the Minnesota Gophers minus the short number at home over the Michigan Wolverines. Minnesota has the 3rd highest RPI ratings among Big Ten teams and has played a stronger schedule to date than Michigan. The Gophs also have the interior defenders (3rd in nation in blocked shots) to hold the Wolves front court at bay. Michigan is due for a letdown after their 3 straight emotional wins over instate rival Michigan State, at Indiana and a home win over Wisconsin. Minnesota is off 3 straight wins too but they were favored in all three and expected to win. The defensive advantages for the Gophers is dramatic as they have one of the best eFG% defenses in the Big Ten while the Wolverines have the second worst. When playing on the road the Wolverines shoot just 42% but allow foes to hit nearly 53%. Minnesota on the other hand shoots near 45% at home but hold foes to just 39% on their home court. Michigan has a negative road differential of -7PPG on the road this season while the Gophers have a home differential of nearly +11PPG. We like the number in this game as the Gophers were just a -4.5 point favorite at home over Maryland (2nd in Big 10) and is laying less in this situation. Minnesota is 14-3 SU at home this season while the Wolves are just 1-6 SU away. We will lay the short number with the Gophers here. 

ASA 10STAR PLAY ON: #868 @TEMPLE (-2) over Connecticut, 4PM ET - We are playing on Temple at home over UConn on Sunday afternoon. When these two teams last met in mid-January the Huskies were a -1.5 point favorite and won handily after Temple shot horrendously from the field (35.9%) compared to UConn hitting over 52% from the field. Look at the tremendous line value we are getting here as Temple should be at least 6 or 7 in this contest. We also like the scheduling dynamics here with UConn coming off a win over Memphis, in which they were down 17, and had to expend a ton of energy in that comeback win.  Temple has been up and down but have some impressive wins on their resume over Florida State, West Virginia and two wins over 18-9 Memphis. The Owls have beaten the Huskies two straight years on this floor in regular season play. Temple gets it done offensively by making 3-pointers (25th in 3-point attempts per game) and they shot it below their season average (36%) in the first meeting (29%) but that should change back at home.  In fact, Owls Obi Enechionyia was 1-for-10 on threes, a key to the game. Enechionyia is 6 feet 10, and UConn's big men are not used to getting out and guarding the perimeter. The Huskies are just 2-8 SU against top 100 RPI teams this season and Temple is 94th. Lastly, Temple's strength of schedule is much better than UConn's and we feel they get a comfortable home win today!

#680 @TENNESSEE CHATTANOOGA (ML) over East Tennessee State, 5PM ET - Scroll down to the added games for this wager as we will invest in Tennessee Chattanooga minus the points at home over East Tennessee State. We've followed this conference very closely this season and have had this date circled for the past few weeks. Chattanooga is 3rd in the conference looking up at ETSU and playing with revenge from an earlier loss this year on the road. A win here by Matt McCall (48-13 SU in his second year as a college coach) and the Mocs will ensure a bye into the quarterfinals of the conference tourney and bolster their odds at wining the Southern Conference. Tenn-Chatt is very good at home with a 11-1 record overall and a 31-2 mark their last 33 on their home court. This season the Mocs have won their home games by an average of 12PPG and shoot 49% at home which is 41st in the nation. Chattanooga swept ETSU last year but lost their only meeting this season 76-71 at ETSU. ETSU was +7 in free throws and made a few more 3's which was the ultimate difference in the game. The Buccaneers are a solid team but they have lost 4 road games already this year, 2 in conference play. Based on comparable opponents, lines on those games it's clear to us Tennessee Chattanooga should be a much bigger favorite than they are today in this game. In fact, the Mocs were -10.5 points at home earlier this season over Furman (who leads the conference for now) and won that game by 16 points. Both teams shoot it well but Tenn-Chat has played the tougher schedule and is one of the best teams in the league in turning over their opponents. ETSU on the other hand doesn't value the basketball is and is last in the SoCon when it comes to turning it over offensively. Tenn-Chat is 22-3 SU at home their last 25 conference home contests and get a big win today over East Tennessee State.  Not close!!!

ASA TOP PLAY 10* Florida Panthers Money Line over Anaheim Ducks, Friday at 10:05 PM ET

We successfully used the Panthers as an underdog at San Jose Wednesday and the set-up here in this Friday match-up involving Florida at Anaheim is nearly identical so we won't hesitate to step in. Even though the Panthers win over the Sharks Wednesday came in overtime, Florida never trailed the entire game and they had a multiple goal lead on multiple occasions including in the third period. San Jose's goal with less than a minute left is what forced overtime in that game. That night the Panthers were catching the Sharks off of a long road trip and in their first game back home. That is precisely the same situation here with Anaheim as the Ducks just got done with a long road trip back east and this will be the first game since coming back. As we've said before, the first home game back after a long road trip is often the toughest game. That said, look for Anaheim to struggle here and the hungry Panthers will take advantage. Florida is hell-bent on making a playoff push and they are proving it by winning 5 of their last 6 games. Taking a look at the Ducks, they had lost 4 of their last 5 games before notching a win at Minnesota Tuesday night. That was a bit of a fortunate win for Anaheim as they were outplayed for much of that game. That also was a big revenge win for the Ducks as that was their first victory over Bruce Boudreau since he went from Anaheim to the Wild in the off-season. That makes this a flat spot for the Ducks and they weren't playing that well as it was. Anaheim also has a huge game with big rival Los Angeles on deck and that strengthens this situation even more for Florida. The suspension of Antoine Vermette further weakens the Ducks for this game and defenseman Sami Vatanen is also questionable for Friday's game as he deals with a knee injury. The Panthers have won 12 of 18 this season and 38 of 63 in recent seasons after a game where they gave up 4 or more goals. Grab the underdog value with the Panthers on the money line for a Top Play selection late Friday night.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Richmond +2.5 over VCU, Friday at 9:00 PM ET

This is a huge rivalry game with both schools located in Richmond and just 6 miles apart.  VCU shot 52% from the field in the first meeting this year and won a competitive game 81-74.  The Rams were also +12 in FT’s made in that game so for Richmond to stay tight throughout with VCU shooting very well and having a big edge at the line was impressive.  Now the Spiders get their chance at redemption, this time at home.  VCU has had some big home wins in A10 play but the road has been a different story.  The Rams are 2-2 their last 4 conference road games but they could easily be 0-4 in those games.  In their two road wins during that stretch @ GW and @ St Bonnies, they had some very lucky end of game situations take place.  Versus GW the Rams trailed by 1 with 0.4 seconds remaining and drew a charging foul on an inbounds play then made both FT’s to win.  Versus St Bonnies they led by 2 when the Bonnies made a 3-pointer to “win” the game with 0.4 seconds remaining.  Problem was, the fans stormed the court and were assessed the technical because the game wasn’t officially over.  VCU sent the game to OT where they eventually won.  This team is ready to get nipped on the road and we think that happens here.  Richmond is the #1 shooting team in the league (54.6 eFG%) and they don’t turn the ball over very often which is key vs VCU.  The host has covered 70% of the last 21 meetings in this cross town rivalry (14-6-1 ATS) and we like the Spiders to pull the “upset” here.

ASA PLAY ON 10* UConn -4.5 over Memphis, Thursday at 9:00 PM ET

The Huskies are playing easily their best basketball of the season.  After starting the AAC with just a 2-4 record their first 6 conference games, UConn has since won 6 of their last 7.  That puts them at 7-5 in league play which is a half game behind tonight’s opponent, Memphis, for 4th place in the conference.  These two met in January in Memphis the Tigers came away with a 70-61 win.  UConn made a paltry 37% of their shots and were terrible from deep hitting just 4 of their 20 three points attempts.  Since that game the Huskies have shot the ball light year’s better as they now lead the AAC in 3-point shooting percentage (conference games only) making over 41%.  They also hit 76% of their FT’s which is 2nd in the conference as well.  Memphis ranks near the bottom of the conference in offensive efficiency and shooting percentage and they’ve made it to 70 points only once in their last six games.  After shooting much better than normal in their first game vs UConn (47%) we expect the Tigers to struggle offensively here vs one of the top defenses in the nation (UConn ranks 16th nationally in defensive eFG%).   Connecticut should destroy Memphis on the boards here as they did in the first game (+20 margin) and if that happens, they will cruise here.  Since losing their home opener in AAC play back on Dec 28th, the Huskies have won 5 straight at home with 4 of those wins coming by at least 10 points.  We’ll side with the red hot Huskies at home laying a marginal number.

PLAY OVER 212.5 CELTICS @ BULLS - We will play OVER in the Boston Celtics at Chicago Bulls game tonight. The Celtics played last night and clearly when they play games without rest their defense suffers. When playing the second night of a back to back the Celtics have an 8-4 OVER record and they allow an average of 120PPG. In their last eight games in this scheduling situation they are 8-0 OVER with the average total points in those games being 225PPG. Even the Bulls offense, that averages just 1.071 points per possession, should score points against a fatigued Boston defense that ranks in the bottom half of the NBA in defensive efficiency rankings. Boston is going to score here too as they have one of the better offenses in the league averaging 108.5PPG with the 7th most efficient offense in the NBA. The Bulls defense (or lack of) has allowed 107 or more points in 9 of their last ten games, and most recently allowed 117, 115 and 123 against three similar teams to Boston. C's over streak of 10-2 their last 12 on the road while Bulls over in 7 of their last ten at home against a team with a +.500 record. 

PLAY ON: OKC THUNDER (-7) over NY Knicks, 9:30PM ET - Tonight we love the opportunity to play against a bad team (NY Knicks) off a big upset win, playing on the road, against a superior team (OKC) which is off a loss. New York beat the San Antonio Spurs at home on Sunday which makes them just 7-20 SU their last 27 games and puts them in a bet against situation, as they are 1-6 ATS their last seven when off a win. New York is just 9-18 SU on the road this season and they have an average point differential of minus -5.1PPG which ranks in the bottom 12 teams in the league. On the flip side the Thunder are off a blowout loss (7-3-1 ATS at home off a loss) in Washington where the team missed 24 consecutive shots, a NBA record. Russell Westbrook struggled with just 17 points but a lot of the Thunders poor play was the fact they were coming off a huge game versus Golden State. The Thunder are 19-8 SU at home this year, 13-4 their last seventeen. OKC has also covered 11 of fourteen at home against sub .500 teams which tells us they win by larger margins. Easy call with OKC at home tonight over the NY Knicks. 

PLAY OVER 217 Sacramento Kings @ LA Lakers, Tuesday 10:35PM ET - Our play tonight is OVER in the Sacramento Kings @ L.A. Lakers game. Pace is clearly one of the first things to look at when betting Over/Unders in the NBA and the current numbers for each team support a faster paced game tonight. The Kings on the season are one of the slowest paced teams in the NBA (4th slowest) but in their last five games they are averaging more possessions per game and rank 14th fastest. The Lakers have been one of the faster paced teams all season (6th) but in their last five games they are 2nd at 103.1 possessions per game. Over the course of their last five games the Kings are averaging 107PPG while the Lakers check in at 112PPG. While the Kings have been better defensively than the Lakers over their recent stretch, L.A. has allowed 114PPG. OK, so we have pace what about scoring? Well both of these teams rank in the bottom 7 of the league in field goal percentage defense against so both should make plenty of shots. Both teams have 5-1 OVER streaks as the Kings have gone OVER the number in 5 of their last six on the road while the Lakers have gone OVER in 5 of their last six anywhere. The play here is OVER the Total!

ASA PLAY ON 10* Colorado State +1 over Wyoming, Tuesday at 9:00 PM ET

CSU is playing the best basketball in the Mountain West right now.  They have won 6 of their last 7 games with their only setback coming by 3 points at the hands of 1st place Boise State.  They have shown they can get it done on the road winning 4 of their 6 away games in MWC play and outscoring their opponents on the road.  The Rams have also covered 8 of their last 9 road games.  This is a team that is very tough to contain offensively.  They rank #1 in the Mountain West in offensive efficiency, 3-point shooting percentage, and offensive rebounding.  On top of that, they make 75% of their FT’s.  Wyoming can’t match offensively or on the boards here as they rank near the bottom of the conference in both.  They face a Ram defense that allows opponents to shoot only 38% on the road so the struggles should continue here.  The Cowboys have only played 2 of the top 5 teams in the MWC at home this year and they’ve lost to both (Boise & Nevada).  The Cowboys have played just 4 overall this year against the top 5 in this conference (CSU, San Diego St, Nevada, New Mexico, and Boise) and they are 0-4 in those games.  They are just 2-2 at home since mid-January with their only wins coming by 1 point over UNLV and by 2 points in 4 overtimes vs Fresno.  This is a double revenger for Colorado State as they lost both to Wyoming last year – this is first meeting this year.  We’ll gladly take the better team getting points here.

PLAY  ON: WASHINGTON WIZARDS (-5) over Oklahoma City Thunder, 7PM ET - We're going to fade OKC here and play on a hot Washington team at home. The Thunder are very good at home but not nearly as good when on the road with a 12-16 SU record. In fact, the Thunder have a -5.5 average point differential away from home with is in the bottom third of the NBA.  Washington on the other hand is in the top 10 in home point differential at +5.5PPGand they stand 23-7 SU on their home court. The Wiz are 18-1 SU their last 19 at home and the lone loss was in OT to the Cavaliers and only 2 of those home wins were by less than 5-points. Shooting will play a major role tonight as OKC shoots just 43.6% on the road this season compared to Washington who hits nearly 49% at home. The Thunder are coming off a couple huge emotional games after beating Cleveland at home then losing to the Warriors on Saturday so they should be a little flat on the road in Washington. OKC is just 5-7 ATS on the road this year off a loss so that's not a concern for us here. Wizard come into tonight on 2 days rest and have covered 4 of their last five in that scheduling situation, plus they are 16-5 ATS their last 21 at home. Lay it!

PLAY ON: SACRAMENTO KINGS (-3.5) over New Orleans Pelicans - We like the Sacramento Kings at home over the visiting New Orleans Pelicans and expect a double digit win by the host. New Orleans is 7-18 SU on the road this season with a negative point differential of -5.3PPG which is in the bottom half of the league. So much of what the Pelicans do is reliant on center Anthony Davis who is coming off a 42 point, 13 rebound and 7 assist game against Minnesota the other night but he’ll have his hands full tonight with fellow Kentuckian DeMarcus Cousins. Prior to their road win the other night in Minnesota the Pelicans had lost 5 straight away from home and three of those losses were by 7+ points. New Orleans is also just 7-13 SU when coming off a win this season and have failed to cover 5 straight games in that role. Sacramento is 11-15 SU at home which isn’t great but they’ve won 3 of their last four at home and all 3 wins came against quality teams (Atlanta, Boston and Golden State). Cousins is good when he’s motivated as he will be today facing Davis. Earlier this season the Kings beat the Pelicans on this floor by 8 as a 6-point chalk. Lay it again!

ASA PLAY ON 10* Northwestern +10.5 over Wisconsin, Sunday at 6:30 PM ET

Too many points here.  Wisconsin continues to win but not easily and not by wide margins.  Their defense has been great but their offense has left a lot to be desired.  5 of their last 7 wins were down to the wire games that weren’t decided until very late.  Over their last 4 games the Badgers are averaging just 63 PPG and shooting only 37% from the field.  A few of Wisconsin’s key players are banged up right now including point guard Koenig who is nursing a leg injury and not nearly 100%.  Northwestern comes in with an 18-6 record and only one of those losses have come by double digits.  The Cats have also struggled a bit offensively with leading scorer Lindsey out with mono, however this team plays very good defense.  They are ranked 2nd in the Big Ten in defensive efficiency and should give a struggling Wisconsin offense all kinds of trouble.  This should be a lower scoring game with the total set at 125 making the points very valuable here.  NW has had extra time to prepare after playing on Tuesday while Wisconsin was in Nebraska playing an overtime game on Thursday.  This is a huge game for Northwestern’s NCAA resume and we think we’ll get another nailbiter in Madison.  Take the points.

ASA PLAY ON 10* SMU -5 over Cincinnati, Sunday at 4:00 PM ET

The Mustangs have been waiting for this one.  They come into this game with an 11-1 conference record and their only loss was @ Cincy by a final score of 66-64.  The Bearcats are 11-0 in league play so this one could be for all the marbles.  SMU had their chances in that 2-point los missing a 3 pointer with 7 seconds remaining and a layup with 3 seconds left that would have pushed the game to OT.   This time they get the Bearcats at home where SMU has simply been dominant. They are 14-0 at home with their wins coming by an average margin of 22 points.  Their AAC home games have resulted in wins of 40, 21, 20, 19, and 14 points.  All but 1 of their 14 home wins have come by more than 10 points.  They are 8-1 ATS at home covering those by a combined 90 points or a full 10 PPG above the spread.  Cincy is obviously very good with a perfect AAC record.  However they’ve played 4 of their last 5 games at home and their one road tilt @ Tulsa the Bearcats had to come from 9 down with 6:00 minutes to win by 2.  In their 7 road games, Cincinnati is 6-1, however they are averaging only 62 PPG in those games and shooting just 38% from the field and 28% from beyond the arc.  They are facing a Mustang team that hits almost 50% of their shots at home while allowing opponents to shoot just 35%.  SMU has won 33 of their last 34 games at home and this is one of their biggest home games ever.  We think they rise to the occasion and roll in this one.

514 Dallas Mavericks (-6) over Orlando Magic, 9PM ET - We like the Dallas Mavericks minus the points over the visiting Orlando Magic. These two teams are trending in opposite directions as the Mavericks got off to a slow start to the season but have now won 10 of their last 15 games. Included in that streak is a 5-1 run their last six home games with all of those victories coming by more than today's spread. Orlando on the other hand is in a funk to say the least with a 4-15 SU record their last 19 games. Included in that run is a 2-9 SU road record and the majority of those road defeats were in blowout fashion. Looking at differentials we find the Mavs have an average point differential of +1PPG their last five games while the Magic are a negative -10.8PPG their last five. Orlando has the 4th worst road point differential at -7PPG and rank near the bottom of the league in road offensive efficiency and DEFF. The Mavs have covered 8 straight at home and get a double digit win again today!

ASA PLAY ON 10* UW Green Bay +3 over Wright State, Saturday at 7:00 PM ET - Horizon League Game of the Month

UWGB is off a 69-67 loss @ Northern Kentucky on Thursday.  Despite the tight loss the Phoenix remain in 2nd place in the Horizon but have dropped 2 games behind Valpo making this a huge game.  With just 5 games remaining, Green Bay needs this win to keep their shot at the conference title alive.  We faded UWGB on Thursday as we felt it was a great spot with Northern Kentucky playing very well and the Phoenix coming off a huge win over conference leader Valpo.  Even with that, GB played well and had a shot to win.  Now off a loss in a must win spot, we think they get it.  GB has been a solid road team in Horizon play with a 3-3 record and two of their three losses coming by 2 points or fewer.  The Phoenix whipped WSU at home by 17 this year and they were far from efficient offensively shooting only 42% in the win.  Wright State is off a home win Thursday vs 2nd to last place UWM but the Raiders have already lost 2 home games despite not hosting any of the Horizon’s top 3 yet this season (Valpo, UWGB, and Oakland).  GB has covered covered 5 of their last 6 this year as a dog and we think they win this one outright.

Tonight we like UNDER in the San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons game. Pace or tempo are critical aspects when handicapping Totals and tonight we have 6th (Spurs) and 7th (Pistons) slowest paced teams in the NBA squaring off. The average total points scored per game is 210 and the number on tonight's game is hovering around that total even though we have two of the slowest paced teams in the league. While San Antonio is one of the most efficient offenses in the NBA at 1.128 points per possession the Pistons are 20th in that same category at 1.067PPP. Defense is another story though as both rank in the top 7 in points allowed per possession. Two teams that play slow and great defense and only one that is better than average in scoring means a very low scoring game tonight. A similar team to Detroit is Memphis and the Spurs just played the Grizzlies and totaled 163 points. The last time these two opponents squared off was back in November and that game ended with 182 total points. Tremendous value with an UNDER bet here. 

PLAY ON: Dallas Mavericks +4.5 over Utah Jazz, 8:35PM ET - Tonight we play on the Dallas Mavericks at home plus the points over the Utah Jazz. Utah is off a blowout win last night in New Orleans and are facing a rested Mavs team off a pair of losses including a home loss to the Blazers most recently. When playing without rest the Jazz are 7-5 SU on the year but they are just 1-6-1 ATS their last eight in that scheduling situation. Prior to their two game losing streak the Mavericks had won 6 of eight games and one of those losses was at home against the Jazz by 5-points in OT. Dallas is 8-9 SU at home off a loss this year but they've covered 7 o their last nine in that situation and 7 straight home covers overall in any role. The dog is also 4-1 last five meetings and Dallas has dominated the Jazz on this court for years. Dallas is playing much better of late and we expect a home win here by the Mavs. 

PLAY ON: Phoenix Suns (+9) over Memphis Grizzlies, 8PM ET - We like the spot to play on the Phoenix Suns plus the points over the Memphis Grizzlies. The Grizz are in an unfamiliar role tonight as a 9-point chalk which is the largest pointspread they've been favored by all season long. Memphis has some other scheduling dynamics going against them here as they are off a huge win over the Spurs and have Golden State next on the schedule. Not to mention they recently beat the Suns by 19 in Phoenix. I watched that game live the Grizzlies hit a franchise record 16 3-pointers while making 57% from beyond the arc. Don't expect a repeat performance as the Grizzlies are the 21st worst 3-point shooting team in the NBA. Memphis has a below average home point differential in the NBA at +2.4PPG and now they're being asked to cover near double digits in this scheduling situation? No way! Phoenix hasn't been bad on the road lately (4 straight covers) with a 5-point loss at New Orleans, 2-point win at Sacramento, 7-point loss at Denver and a pair of wins in Toronto and New York. The Suns will be focused here after their embarrassing loss to Memphis just a few days ago. Grab the points.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 148.5 Points - Baylor @ Oklahoma State, Wed at 7:00 PM ET

Baylor is one of the slowest paced teams in the country (#330) and they know to win this game they have to make it a grinder.  OSU wants to get up and down, however if one of the two teams wants to play slow, they usually get control of the tempo. That will be the case here similar to the first meeting this year when Baylor topped OSU 61-57.  The Bears have one of the top defenses in the nation ranking 6th in defensive efficiency, 8th in eFG% defense while allowing just 61 PPG on the season.  They’ve allowed only 3 opponents to reach 70 points in Big 12 play.  The Cowboys offense has been putting points on the board, however they’ve played mainly fast paced teams as of late.  Those type of teams play right into the hands of the Okie State squad.  There are only really 2 slower paced teams in the conference (Baylor & Texas Tech) and in those games the OSU total points scored were 118 & 147, both under today’s number.  In their game vs Tech where the two totaled 147, the team’s combined to shoot 50% overall and nearly 50% from 3 and still stayed UNDER the number.  We don’t envision those type of shooting numbers tonight.  We know Baylor’s defense is top notch but OSU’s is much better than their overall season numbers.  They’ve changed their defensive philosophy over the last few weeks changing from a pressure defense to more of a man to man, gap help defense.  It’s really helped as in their last 5 games their opponents have only hit 43% of their shots.  Baylor’s offense is struggling shooting 35%, 42%, and 38% their last 3 games so don’t expect them to break out here.  Baylor knows how they have to play to win games – slow with defense.  Of their 10 Big 12 games this year, 9 have stayed under this current total.  Add another one tonight.  Play the UNDER here.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Clemson -3.5 over Syracuse, Tuesday at 8:00 PM ET - ASA's ACC GAME OF THE MONTH

Clemson is in must win mode at home tonight.  This is a veteran team that has aspirations of making the NCAA tourney.  Sitting at 13-9 overall and 3-7 in the ACC, this becomes a must win game at home.  This team is better than their record.  They’ve played one of the most difficult schedules in the nation with only 4 of their 24 opponents ranked outside the top 100.  Of their 9 losses, 6 of come by 6 points or fewer.  In ACC play they’ve lost to UNC in OT, UVA by 4, Virginia Tech by 1, and Notre Dame by 5.  The Tigers should be extra motivated here coming  off their worst performance of the season, a rare blowout loss @ FSU on Sunday.  Coach Brad Brownell was disgusted with his team’s performance and because of the lop sided loss, he was able to spread his minutes out getting the starters some rest.  Only one player played more than 25 minutes and 9 different players saw double digit minutes.  The offense hit only 37% of their shots and a normally solid defense allowed FSU to shoot a ridiculous 66% for the game.  You can bet Clemson will play with fire in their bellies tonight.  Syracuse has won 4 straight but 3 of those have come at home.  Their only road win during that stretch was in OT @ NC State.  The fact is, that’s the only road win this season for the Orange who come into this one with a 1-5 mark in road games.  Not only that, all 5 of their road losses have come by at least 10 points.  Their defense has been shredded away from home allowing over 51% from the field.  Expect Clemson’s offense, who averages 80 PPG at home, to get back on track tonight.  We’ll side with the desperate home team tonight.

PLAY ON: OKC THUNDER - We successfully played on the OKC Thunder yesterday at home in their win over Portland but today we will turn around and play against them. From a scheduling standpoint, this is a bad spot for the Thunder having just played at home yesterday while the Pacers were at home resting. This is also the Thunder’s 3rd game in a four-day span. OKC has been great at home this season but haven’t played as well on the road where they are 12-15 SU on the season with an average point differential of minus -5.6PPG which is the bottom half of the league in that category. When playing without rest the Thunder are 3-7 SU this year with a differential average of -5PPG. On the flip side the Pacers are playing lights out right now and are on a 6-game winning streak, including 3 straight at home. Indiana is 19-6 SU at home this year, 8-1 their last 9 and have the 10th best home point differential in the NBA of +5.8PPG. After a slow start and dealing with several key injuries the Pacers are finally living up to expectations and this is a perfect spot to play on them at home laying a marginal number. 

ASA PLAY ON 10* Wofford +4 over ETSU, Monday at 7:00 PM ET

It’s a no brainer to at least consider Wofford at home if they are getting points.  That’s because this team is 32-4 SU at home their last 36 including 8-1 this year with their only loss coming by 1-point in overtime.  They’ve been tabbed a home underdog only twice since the start of the 2014 season.  After playing 3 consecutive road games, Wofford is just happy to be back at home as they haven’t played on this court since January 25th.  The Terriers are playing well despite playing three straight on the road winning two of those.  They have won 5 of their last 7 overall with their only two losses coming @ Western Carolina by 6 and @ ETSU by 7.  In that game @ ETSU the Terriers were outshot 58% to 45% yet it still was close throughout.  Now they get ETSU at home where Wofford shoots 52% on the season.  Wofford in the most efficient offense in the Southern Conference and the 4th best FT shooting team in the nation hitting almost 80% from the charity stripe (ETSU hit 66% of their FT’s).  The Buccaneers are playing their 3rd road game in their last 4 and the host has won this game 8 of the last 10 meetings.  We think Wofford has a great shot to win this and even if they don’t, we have some points to work with.  

ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 59.5 Points - Atlanta vs New England, Sunday Feb 5th at 6:30 PM ET

Looking at this total logically and comparing it to last week’s totals, this number is simply too high.  It’s not surprising as most like to bet OVER in the Super Bowl and both teams were in high scoring Championship games so the oddsmakers had to set this high.  Atlanta’s NFC Championship game with Green Bay closed at 60.5 which is basically a point or two higher than this one.  That’s despite the fact that Green Bay’s defense was among the worst in the NFL and had a number of key injuries weakening their entire unit.  Now the Birds face one of the better defense in the NFL and the total is nearly the same?  How about the New England vs Pitt total in the AFC Champoinship game.  That was set at 50 vs a Steeler offense that was among the best in the NFL with 3 of the top offensive players in the NFL at the skill positions (Roethlisberger, Brown, and Bell).  Yet this total is set a full 9 points higher than that one?  Again too high.  The Falcons defense has gotten much better.  After allowing 27.6 PPG and 382 YPG over the first 12 games they’ve dropped those numbers to just 19 PPG on 339 YPG over their last 6.   The Pats led the NFL in scoring defense by a full 3 points over Seattle giving up just 15.6 PPG.   The top 10 scoring offenses that Belichick faced this year were held to an average of 5 PPG below their season average and we’d expect the same here with Atlanta.  We’d be shocked in the Falcons roll up 30+ points in this game.  Don’t be surprised if New England tries to shorten this game with their running attack.  This is the highest total in Super Bowl history and only 8 of the 50 Super Bowls have gotten into the 60’s.  We think the value is with the UNDER. 

ASA PLAY ON 10* New England -3 over Atlanta, Sunday Feb 5th at 6:30 PM ET

The Patriots are in their element here.  They’ve already been here 6 times in the Belichick/Brady Era and won 4 of those.  You can bet Brady is ultra-focused and motivated here as a win would cement him as the greatest of all time with 5 Super Bowl Rings – would be the most by a QB in NFL history.  He also has a bit of an agenda here as he’s still extremely angry with commissioner Roger Goodell for suspending him for 4 games this season because of the deflate gate stuff.  Goodell decided to skip the game in New England last week and go to Atlanta and you can bet that didn’t go unnoticed by Brady and the Pats.  The Atlanta players have no experience with this situation.   This is their first Super Bowl appearance since 1999 and the distractions and craziness leading up to the game is all new to them.  That gives Belichick and company a huge advantage in our opinion.  This will be the 7th time the NFL’s top scoring defense (New England) faces the top scoring offense (Atlanta) in the Super Bowl.  The team with the top scoring defense has won all but one of those games.  Belichick will have two weeks to get his defense ready for Atlanta’s offense which is a huge bonus in our opinion.  He won’t let the Falcons go up and down the field as they did last week vs a porous and injury riddled Packer defense that rated as one of the worst in the NFL.  The top 10 scoring offenses that Belichick faced this year were held to an average of 5 PPG below their season average and we’d expect the same here with Atlanta.  We’d be shocked in the Falcons roll up 30+ points in this game.  This Patriot defense has allowed 30+ points only once this entire season and they’ve held 13 of their 18 opponents this year to under 20 points.  We wouldn’t be surprised at all if Belichick slows this game down and uses his running game to eat clock keeping Atlanta’s offense on the sidelines.  The Pats are good enough to win that type of game or if it turns into a shootout, this offense CAN keep up with Atlanta.  While the Falcons defense has improved late in the season, they have also allowed 20 or more points in 13 of their 18 games this season.  Brady should be able to pick apart one of the youngest defenses in the NFL.  Let’s not forget the Pats have lost a grand total of ONE game with Brady in the line up (vs Seattle).  Atlanta had losses to TB, San Diego, Philly, and Seattle, three of those being non-playoff teams.  New England is simply the better team and their experience in this situation is a HUGE factor.  Lay the field goal with the PATRIOTS.

ASA PLAY ON: @Oklahoma City Thunder (-4.5) over Portland Trailblazers, 3PM ET - Play on the OKC Thunder minus the points over the Portland Trailblazers. The Blazers are not a good road team where they are just 8-18 SU on the season with an average point differential of minus -5.9PPG which is 8th worst in the NBA. The Blazers are 1-3 SU their last four road games and two of those defeats were at Charlotte and Philadelphia who are not as good as the Thunder team they’ll face today. OKC is clearly not as good as they were last season but they still enjoy a 17-7 SU home record this season with an average point differential of +6.7PPG which is 8th best in the NBA. The Thunder are even better at home when it comes to the West, having won 13 of 15 this season and 7 straight by an average of 14PPG. The Thunder have covered 4 of the last five meetings here against the Blazers and with Portland’s guard Damian Lillard struggling with his shooting stroke (under 40% last 5 from field, 32% from beyond the arc) right now this is a perfect spot to fade the Blazers and play on the Thunder. OKC by double digits!

#585 – 10* TOP PLAY on UAB Blazers (-) over UTSA – Saturday at 4:00 PM ET – The Roadrunners are off of their first home loss of the season and will now be looking to bounce back at home but they are facing the wrong team at the wrong time. First off, taking a longer look at UTSA, the only reason they had been undefeated on their home floor was that they played a very weak non-conference schedule and then, in CUSA action, their first three home games came against Florida International, Florida Atlantic, and UTEP. The combined record of those 3 teams is 19-44. Since UTSA's most recent home win, they have lost 4 straight games and that included the home loss to Middle Tennessee State Thursday. All 5 conference losses that the Roadrunners have been dealt have been decided by double digits! The average margin in UTSA's 5 CUSA losses is 16.8 points per game. The Runners just are too weak offensively to keep up with UAB, especially with the Blazers off of a loss. UAB comes into this ready to attack after a loss at UTEP on Thursday. The Blazers have won all 8 games this season when off of a loss. Having yet to lose two straight games this season we don't foresee that changing here either. UTSA has been held under 39.4% from the field in 5 straight games. UAB, before their road loss to the Miners, had knocked down at least 50% from the field in 6 straight games! Comparing the offensive production of these two teams, the Blazers are better across the board as they shoot better overall and from the free throw line and from beyond the arc. Before the loss at UTEP, the Blazers had shot at least 44.4% from three point land in five straight games. The Blazers are in a 3-way tie for 2nd place in the conference and, after this road game, they don't play again until Thursday and that begins a stretch where they know they can make a run as 5 of their last 7 regular season games are at home. UAB will be fully focused on the task at hand as they've bounced back from a loss every single time this season. The key here of course is not just the SU win but getting the ATS cover and there is every reason to believe the Blazers will get the job done in that regard. When UTSA loses, they lose big. When UAB is off of a loss, they turn up the heat on defense in their next game. In terms of the offenses, there is simply no comparison here. UAB had averaged 82 points per game (including regulation time only) in their 7 games prior to the loss at UTEP. Looking at UTSA, the Roadrunners have not scored more than 71 points in any of their 9 conference game this season. In fact, the Runners are averaging just 61.7 points per game in conference games this season. This one has all the right ingredients for a road rout. Lay it! UAB for a Top Play Saturday!

PLAY ON: HOUSTON ROCKETS (-6.5) over Chicago Bulls, 8PM ET - We like the Houston Rockets at home over the Chicago Bulls tonight. Much has been made about the Bulls poor team chemistry right now with Jimmy Butler, D-Wade and Rajon Rondo and this is certainly a team with some problems behind the scenes. Granted they have won two straight game but a lot has to do with a favorable schedule as they beat the 76ers at home then won in Oklahoma City on Wednesday. The Bulls shot an uncharacteristic 60% from the field in that game which was WELL above their season average of just 43.9% which is 3rd worst in the NBA. Chicago also caught the Thunder off of 2 HUGE games against the Cavaliers and Spurs on the road and were playing the 2nd night of a back to back. On the flip side the Rockets should have some extra motivation here as they are coming off an upset loss at home last night to the Atlanta Hawks. Houston is the 6th best shooting team in the NBA at 46.5% but last night they struggled from the field hitting just 37.6% of their shots against a Hawks defense that is 8th in the NBA in opponents FG% against. The Bulls are 18th in that same defensive category. The Rockets have the 3rd best home point differential in the NBA at +9.8PPG. Houston is 14-3 SU off a loss, 5-1 at home and they have won 11 of 12 games this season when playing without rest. In fact, the Rockets 11 wins when playing without rest have come by an average of  13PPG. Lay the points!

PLAY UNDER WARRIORS @ CLIPPERS, 10:35PM ET - Tonight we'll play UNDER 228 in the Golden State Warriors @ L.A. Clippers game. Right now I'm guessing you're not a fan of this wager considering these two teams just met last Saturday with the Warriors winning 144-98. Now Golden State is the BEST shooting team in the NBA at 50% from the field and they make 39% of their 3-point attempts. So it was abnormal that they made 62% of their FG attempts in the last meeting with the Clippers and 17 3-pointers which is 5 more than their season average. What also supports our thinking here is the fact the Clippers have a top 8 defense in terms of overall shooting percentage defense and 3-point percentage D. L.A. coach Doc Rivers has reminded his players just how embarrassing that loss was and you can bet they'll be much more focused on the defensive end of the court tonight. Golden State averages 5 less points per game on the road compared to at home and allow less too. The Clippers at home average 203 total points per game and are one of just 6 teams that allow less than 100PPG on their home court. These two teams are two of the 12 best defensive efficiency ratings teams in the league with the Warriors #1 allowing just 1.036 points per possession. The number on tonight's game is ridiculously high and the value lies with UNDER. In the last 10 meetings only 2 have resulted with more points than the number set on tonight's game. BET UNDER!

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia Flyers Money Line (+) over Tampa Bay Lightning, Thursday at 7:05 PM ET

Montreal is off of a win but they have not managed back to back wins in the past 4 weeks. Overall, the Canadiens had lost 6 of their last 10 games before coming up with the home win versus Buffalo. Included in this stretch Montreal has lost 3 of its last 4 road games and the 3 defeats have come by a combined score of 11 to 2. They now face a Flyers team hungry to bounce back after a dismal effort on the road against the Hurricanes. In that loss at Carolina, Philly clearly wasn't ready to go and they need to make amends on home ice where they have won 10 of their last 13 games. Philadelphia only has a non-conference game on deck while the Canadiens have a big battle with Washington on deck. That sets this one up nicely for the Flyers to roll at home. Montreal has lost 20 of 35 road games when the total is set at 5.5 goals while Philly has won 36 of 59 home games with a total set at 5.5 goals. The home team has won each of the last 5 meetings between these clubs and it was a year ago to the day that the Flyers last hosted the Habs and Philadelphia got the 4-2 win. We expect a repeat today with fired up Philly off of a divisional loss. Grab the undervalue home team with the Flyers on the money line in this one early Thursday evening.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Missouri Tigers (+) over Florida Gators, Thursday at 7 PM ET: Game 711

This is a classic case of an undervalued ugly dog. Missouri is a poor 5-15 on the season and on the road facing a 16-5 Florida team. Even though the Gators should certainly get the win, this line is over-inflated as Florida is off of back to back big road wins. Prior to those easy road wins (where everything seemed to go right for the Gators) Florida had gone 3-4 ATS in SEC action. The largest margin of victory in any of those games was 13 points. So, why are the Gators such a huge favorite here? It has a lot to do with the fact Florida's last two wins have each come by more than 30 points. However, the fact is this is a touch scheduling spot for Florida. They have a huge game on deck as they will be hosting Kentucky on Saturday! With only one off day in between games, even if the Gators are fortunate enough to get a big lead over Mizzou, we don't foresee them trying to expend a bunch of energy to win by 20+ points. The fact is that Florida will want to keep their playing rotation fresh for the big match-up with the Wildcats that is only 48 hours away! As for the Tigers, despite their poor record, they have been very competitive and certainly haven't quit on their coach. Missouri continues to play hard and they have not lost a game by more than 19 points this entire season. In fact, 11 of their 15 losses have been by a dozen points or less. The Gators would be very "comfortable" winning this game by a dozen and recent results have simply driven this line to a level it should not be at. Missouri had shot the ball quite well in three straight games before running into the stifling defense of South Carolina. The Tigers will be ready to bounce back here as they have plenty of hunger to end their losing streak including an epic long road losing streak. Florida, surprisingly, has allowed opponents to hit 49% from the field in home games this season and, again, a let up before the Kentucky game would not be a surprise at all. Grab the big points with the Tigers in this one early Thursday evening.

MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES (ML wager) over Denver Nuggets, 9PM ET - We will play on the Memphis Grizzlies at the Denver Nuggets tonight. The Nuggets are off a game last night in Los Angeles and the final score isn't really a good indicator of just how poorly they played. They shot just 38% for the first three quarters of the game, then gave up 39 points in the final stanza to the Lakers. Denver is just 2-7 SU when playing without rest this season with an average loss margin of 6PPG. Because of the higher altitude in Denver the schedule makers typically don't schedule the Nuggets to play at home the second night of a back to backs. In fact, it's only happened 11 times since the start of the 2014 season and the Nuggets are a pathetic 1-10 SU & ATS in those games. Memphis is playing better now since they've gotten healthy and have a 13-12 SU road record with an average point differential of -1PPG when away from home. That average point differential is 8th best in the NBA. The Grizz have won 3 of their last five road games and have7-3 spread record when laying 3.5 or less points this season. Denver obviously relies on their offense to win games and will try to push tempo here. The Nuggets are just 1-6 SU their last seven games when they don't score 120 or more points and Memphis has allowed over 120 just once all season and that was early on when they had multiple injuries. The Grizzlies have the 4th best defensive efficiency rating and they'll contain the high-octane offense of Denver. Take Memphis here.

PLAY ON: DETROIT PISTONS (-7) over New Orleans Pelicans, 7:35PM ET - We successfully played on the Pelicans last night in Toronto but must go against them here in Detroit tonight. We really felt the Pistons would snap out of their mid-season slump a few games back when they came off a 4-day break but it didn’t happen as they’ve lost 2 straight since then and 3 in a row. Their last two losses came against a red-hot Miami team and at the Boston Celtics. Now Detroit gets to host a Pelicans team off an overtime road loss in Toronto last night and if there is a time they’ll get a big win, it’s tonight. New Orleans just 6-16 SU on the road with an average differential of minus -5.2PPG which is nearly what tonight’s spread is. Detroit is 12-10 SU at home this year with a positive differential of +3.5PPG which is in the top half of the league. The Pistons are 6-5 SU & ATS at home when coming off a loss with an average win margin of 5PPG while the Pelicans are just 3-7 ATS when playing without rest with an average loss margin over 5PPG. New Orleans really struggle shooting and scoring on the road as they hit just 43% from the field which ties into their worst road offensive efficiency rating in the NBA. Given the circumstances for the Pistons we expect them to get a double-digit home win here.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER the total in Wisconsin Badgers @ Illinois Illini, Tuesday at 9:00 PM ET: Game No. 755

The Badgers are off of an ugly game at Rutgers where they had to rally just to send the game into overtime. For the game, Wisconsin shot only 33.3% from the field and 12% from three point land. Prior to an "off" shooting performance for the Badgers, they had scored an average of 79 points per game in their four prior games and shot the ball very well in all four games. All four of those games resulted in overs and we're looking for another one here as the Illini have allowed opponents to hit 49.2% of their shots in conference action thus far. The Illinois defense is most certainly a weakness but one thing the Illini can do (and do it well) is put up big points at home. On the season, Illinois has averaged 83.2 points per game at home while connecting on 49.2% of their shots. We feel this total is far too low given the weak defense of the Illini but their potent offense at home. In fact, the over is 4-1 this season in Illinois games were the total is set in a range of 130 to 139.5 points. Taking a closer look at the Badgers, the over is 4-1 in their road games this season and also 9-4 in their games against teams with a winning record this season. This is the lowest total posted on an Illini game this season and a lot of that has to do with the Badgers coming to town but we expect a huge scoring outburst from Wisconsin in this one given all the reasoning noted above. After their ugly effort against Rutgers, the shots will be falling at a high percentage clip for Wiscy tonight against one of the weaker defenses in the Big Ten. Bet the OVER in Illinois in this one Tuesday night.

PLAY ON: SAN ANTONIO SPURS (-9) over OKC Thunder, 8:35PM ET - Tonight we will side with the San Antonio Spurs minus the points over the visiting OKC Thunder. On Sunday we gave 8.5 points with Cleveland at home over the Thunder so laying 1 more point here makes sense. Especially considering the situation with the Spurs off an embarrassing home loss to the Mavericks. The Spurs are 77-54 (59%) ATS since the start of the 2011 season when coming off a loss which is the 2nd best overall record in the NBA. Since the start of last season they have a 17-11 ATS record or 61% which is the best record in the league over that span of time. This season the Spurs have been especially nasty at home off a loss with a 5-2 record but those 5 wins have come by an average of 24PPG and includes 3 wins by 28+ points. OKC is going to suffer the effects of the loss of Enes Kanter for some games to come and can't keep pace with a much deeper San Antonio team that can overcome the loss of Gasol. The Thunder have recently played three road games against similar foes to the Spurs and lost by 16 in Cleveland, 21 in Golden State an22 at the LA Clippers. We don't use 'revenge' in the NBA very often but the Thunder did eliminate the Spurs from the playoffs last year and this is their first meeting this season.  Since the start of last season the Spurs have a home point differential of +11.3PPG while the Thunder are in the bottom third of the league in road differential (since Durant left) at -5.3PPG. It seems like a big number but in reality it's not. Lay it!

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tampa Bay Lightning Money Line (+) over Boston Bruins, Tuesday at 7:35 PM ET

The Lightning are too strong of a team to stay down for long and this is the perfect point in the season (right after the All Star break) for the Bolts to gear up and start getting it done on the ice. Tampa Bay has lost each of its last three meetings with the Bruins on home ice. Those 3 games were decided by a combined 4 goals though and there should be some payback for the tight losses tonight. The Lightning had to endure a 6-game road trip right before the break but now begin a 4-game homestand and they have had this ultra-important stretch circled on their calendars. The Bruins have lost 4 of their last 5 road games and yet this game has taken on some Boston money based on the line move. We'll gladly fade that movement with a big play on the Lightning here on their home ice. Boston has given up 20 goals in their last 5 games away from home. Tampa Bay has won 18 of 24 games the past three seasons when they enter having had 3 or more days of rest between games. With these same parameters, the Bruins have been awful and have lost 15 of 19 games. That makes this a 33-12 spot in favor of the Bolts! Look for the Bruins to again struggle when playing with extra rest while the Lightning come out flying all over the ice in this one! Grab the undervalue home team with the Bolts on the money line in this one Tuesday night.

OVER 207.5 Memphis Grizzlies @ Phoenix Suns, 10:35PM ET - We will wager OVER in the Memphis Grizzlies @ Phoenix Suns game tonight. The league average for total points scored in an NBA game this year is 210PPG. Memphis and Utah are the only two teams in the league to average less than 100PPG offensively and defensively. But the Grizzlies have scored more than 100 points in 7 of their last eight games and have the 7th most efficient offense in the NBA over their last five contests. Phoenix wants to play fast and are currently the 3rd fastest paced team in the NBA on the season. In their last five games they have the 3rd most efficient offense averaging 1.165 points per possession. Another important factor here is defense and while the Grizzles play some, the Suns don't. Phoenix allows an average of 112PPG and 1.118PPP with the 5th worst defensive efficiency rating in the NBA. The Suns have had just 9 games this year with a total set of 210 or less and those games have a 6-3 over record. Memphis has played over in 5 straight on the road against teams with losing home records and Suns on perfect 6-0 over run at home. BET OVER!

ASA TOP PLAY 10* Stanford Cardinal (+) over California Golden Bears, Sunday at 8:30 PM ET: Game #879

Though Reid Travis is listed as questionable for this game, Stanford has seen others pick up the slack in his absence and we like the Cardinal here whether Travis plays or not. Both of these teams come in off of a full week off as neither has played since the 21st. Stanford, over the past few seasons, has gone 3-1 SU when they are playing with 7 or more days of rest. The Golden Bears are 0-2 SU and ATS the past few seasons when they are playing with 7 or more days of rest. This is a big rivalry game and if there is any "rust" due to the layoff, we not only have the support of historical data here, the face is that there is more pressure on the big favorite if both teams are a little "rusty" after the break. The Cardinal are coming off of an ugly road loss at Oregon where Stanford simply did not shoot well. Prior to that defeat the Cardinal had won three straight games and covered four straight games. Also, Stanford is 12-5 SU (and 11-6 ATS) when they are coming off of a game where they were held to 60 points or less. Taking a look at California, the Golden Bears are off of a big win at Oregon State but Cal is 2-8 ATS this season when they are off of a game where they held their opponent to 60 points or less. Also, that was the 4th straight ATS loss for the Bears. While Cal certainly won't look past this rivalry game the fact is that it has been a "down season" thus far for the Cardinal and the Golden Bears do have a tough game with Utah on deck that has a little bit of their attention. We expect Stanford to come in as the hungrier, highly motivated, revenging underdog and it will be tough for California to create much separation in this game. Cal just isn't shooting all that well and, in fact, prior to a strong game against league-worst Oregon State, had been held to 39.7% or less from the field in 6 of their last 8 games! The Cardinal had shot 49% from the field in their 3 games prior to the ugly loss at Oregon and will respond here. We would not be shocked to see Stanford get revenge here (lost by 15 in their last visit to Cal) and, if the Cardinal do fall short, we expect it to be by just a possession or two as this one should go down to the wire. Value with the big points here. Grab the generous points with Stanford in this one Sunday night!

#568 - ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON Memphis Tigers -13 over East Carolina Pirates, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET

This is the perfect spot for an absolute blowout.  The Tigers are off of a loss by 11 points at Temple.  Prior to that defeat Memphis was 15-5 this season and they have responded every single time when off of a defeat this season.  It is certainly not as if they'll need any extra motivation here.  East Carolina, as a huge dog, upset the Tigers in Memphis last season.  Granted the Tigers did get some revenge by blowing out the Pirates by 30 when they met in East Carolina later in the season but Memphis is still highly motivated here as home losses to unranked teams is not something that has happened very often in recent seasons.  Adding to the strength of this situation is the fact that the Pirates are off of a rare win as East Carolina won at home against Tulsa Wednesday.  Prior to that victory, East Carolina had lost 6 straight games and 9 of its last 11.  The average margin of defeat in those games was 15 points for the Pirates and the Tigers (still remembering last year's defeat on their home floor) are not going to take their foot off of the gas in this game.  Memphis can put up big points while East Carolina has averaged just 57 points per game in their last 7 games.  The fact that the Pirates season has been interrupted by head coach Jeff Lebo's hip surgery and now the loss of leading scorer BJ Tyson to a knee injury certainly hasn't helped matters for East Carolina.  The Pirates have the worst scoring offense in the American Athletic Conference with 62 points per game while the Tigers rank near the top at 77 points per game.  On deck for Memphis is league cellar dweller South Florida so the Tigers are fully focused on this home loss revenge game and they'll have the coaching edge, motivational edge, home court edge, situational edge, and the ability to absolutely blow away a Pirates team that struggles to score points.  East Carolina has been held under 37.8% from the field in 7 of their last 8 games.  The Tigers are 11-2 at home this season and have shot at least 46% from the field in 9 of their 13 home games.  Lay the big number with the Tigers for a Top Play Saturday afternoon. 

TOP PLAY 10* Wisconsin-Green Bay Phoenix +7.5 over Oakland (Michigan) Golden Grizzlies – The Phoenix got blown out in both games versus the Golden Grizzlies last season. That is certainly added motivation for Wisconsin-Green Bay here but the big key is the simple fact that Oakland is simply not shooting very well at all right now. It is tough to cover a big spread when your offense is struggling and that is certainly the case with the Grizzlies right now. Oakland has failed to cover in 4 of 5 games and the Golden Grizzlies have been held to 25% or less from three point land in all 5 games! In 3 of the 5 games Oakland was held under 41.2% with all their shots from the field. While the Grizzlies offense has been struggling the other concern has been their level of play at the other end of the floor. Oakland has allowed 82 points per game in their last 4 games and the scheduling situation could be problematic for the Grizzlies here as it is difficult for them not to look ahead to a revenge game with Milwaukee that is an early afternoon game Sunday. The Panthers handed them a rare home loss last season and Oakland will seek to avenge that defeat less than about 36 hours after this game finishes up! Green Bay has won 8 of its last 10 games and one of the two losses came by just 3 points. Since conference action has tipped off, the Phoenix have tightened things up on the defensive end and the offensive has flowed quite well with 78 points or more in 6 of their last 7 games. UWGB has covered 5 straight and 8 of its last 10 in games where the line fell anywhere between -8 and +8. The Golden Grizzlies have gone 5-10 ATS the last 15 times they were a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points. Grab the big points and bet Wisconsin-Green Bay Friday night.

PLAY ON: Charlotte Hornets (-1) over @NY Knicks, 7:35PM ET - Today we play on the Charlotte Hornets over the NY Knicks. New York has plenty of distractions right now as trade rumors for Melo heat up, and this comes shortly after the D-Rose issue.  The Knicks are just 4-14 SU their last 18 games and have lost 7 of their last 8 at home. Charlotte is off a disappointing home loss to the Warriors, in which they actually led going into the final stanza. Prior to that game they lost to a red hot Wizards team and now step way down in class against the Knicks tonight.  The Hornets are just 8-14 SU away from home BUT they have an average point differential of just -1.1 PPG which is 10th best in the NBA. The Knicks on the other hand are 12-11 SU at home but their average point differential is -.1PPG which is 22nd out  of 30 teams. These two teams are very similar offensively averaging 1.082 points per possession which is right around the league average. Where these two clubs are drastically different is the defensive end of the court as the Knicks rank 25th in the league in defensive efficiency while the Hornets are 6th best in the same category. The visitor has covered 7 of the last 10 meetings and the last time they met on this floor the Hornets were 2-point favorites so we are getting additional value tonight. Take Charlotte!

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER the total (145) in Indiana Hoosiers @ Michigan Wolverines, Thursday at 9:00 PM ET: Game No. 739

The first numbers that popped up on this game Wednesday had the total in the 150 range and it has now dropped into the 145 range as we near mid-day Thursday. Much of this line move likely stems from the injury issues that Indiana has had but the Hoosiers looked just fine on offense against Michigan State Saturday. The other item that could be impacting the move on this O/U is Indiana's numbers on defense as their field goal percentage allowed on the season (including from 3-point line) looks strong. The key though is that those solid numbers were produced primarily against weak non-conference competition. Once their scheduled toughened starting in late December, the Hoosiers have allowed at least 75 points (and at least 44% from the field) in 7 of 8 games. Indiana's opponents have also connected on at least 35% of their three pointers in 7 of the Hoosiers last 8 games. The over is 8-4 in Indiana's last dozen games and their potent offense will take advantage of a Wolverines defense that is allowing 47% from the field (including 42% three pointers!) on the season. Both of these teams shoot the ball very well (including from beyond the arc) and the Hoosiers are averaging 84 points per game and Michigan is averaging 74 points per game this season. Michigan's win versus Illinois Saturday stayed under the total but the Wolverines had gone over the total in 10 straight games prior to that! We expect another "over streak" to get underway tonight as the Wolverines are allowing Big Ten opponents to shoot 51.4% from the field thus far but Michigan also should have no trouble putting up big points at home against an Indiana D that is allowing 80 points per game on the road this season. The over is 19-6 when Michigan is off of a game where they gave up 60 points or less. When the total is in the 140 to 149.5 range, the Hoosiers are 7-2 to the over this season and the Wolverines are 6-1 to the over. We're happy to put those streaks to the test in this match-up. Bet the OVER in Michigan in this one Thursday night.

PLAY OVER 210.5: Indiana Pacers @ Minnesota Timberwolves, 8PM ET - We are playing OVER in the Indiana Pacers at Minnesota Timberwolves tonight.  There are a few indicators that suggest this is going to be a very high scoring game. Let's start with the Pacers defense, or should I say, lack of defense. Indiana has allowed 11 of their last 14 opponents to scored 100 or more points against them and 8 of those 14 have scored 108 or more. In their last six road contests the Pacers have given up an average of 114PPG. In terms of defensive efficiency ratings the Pacers are 15th in the league or average allowing 1.083 points per possession.  Indiana 29th out of 30 teams in the league in opponents offensive rebounds per game. That's a huge factor here as the Wolves are the 6th best offensive rebounding team in the league which translates to some easy opportunities at the rim. As far as Minnesota is concerned, defensively they are the 23rd worst team in the league in DEFF allowing 1.102 points per possession. The Wolves have allowed an average of 111PPG their last four outings but have scored an average of 110PPG in those same four games.  Minnesota will have problems slowing down a Pacers offense that has scored 100 or more points in 8 of their last ten games and 106 or more in 6 of their last ten. In their last five games both teams are shooting above their season averages with both above 48%. The OVER has cashed 7 of the last ten meetings between these two teams in Minny. BET OVER!

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 5.5 goals in Toronto Maple Leafs @ Philadelphia Flyers, Thursday at 7:05 PM ET

Both of these clubs were in action last night and both of them notched rare, shutout victories. The Flyers game was particularly low-scoring and a 2-0 final but that was because goalie Steve Mason, after many recent struggles, had a phenomenal game. Though Mase is expected to be between the pipes again tonight, he historically has not fared well in back to backs and the Flyers defense in front of him has generally not helped out much. Mason faced a number of great Rangers scoring chances last night (including odd man rushes) and the Maple Leafs potent offensive firepower is going to further test a Philadelphia defensive corps that is clearly the weakness of this hockey club. The Flyers had given up 25 goals in their last 6 games before last night's rare shutout. As for the Leafs, they are off of ultra rare back to back shutouts but Toronto had given up 32 goals in their 9 prior games and this spot, a back to back for both clubs, looks like a great spot for a wide-open game. Both teams are off of key divisional wins and coming off of rivalry victories often leaves a team short on defensive intensity in their next game especially when it is the following night. The over is 10-6 this season in Flyers home games with a total set at 5.5 goals. Also, when Philly enters a game on an "under streak" of 3 games or more, the over has gone 11-3 (79%). Toronto also enters this game off of 3 straight unders but their potent offense has averaged nearly 4 goals per game this month and the over was 7-0 (with one push) in their first 8 games the month. The last 3 match-ups between these clubs have totaled 25 goals and we expect another wide open game here as normalcy (high scoring games) returns for these clubs tonight. Bet the OVER in Philadelphia in this one Thursday.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Edmonton Oilers Money Line (+) over Anaheim Ducks, Wednesday at 10:05 PM ET

The loss of Jakob Silfverberg to injury is a significant one for the Ducks. He leads the team with a (+/-) of +13 and is also 3rd on the team in goals scored. The first game the Ducks played without the right winger they lost Saturday. Anaheim then rebounded for a win at Winnipeg Monday but the Ducks were outshot by the Jets. In fact were it not for a power play goal and a short-handed goal, the Ducks would have lost as the Jets outscored them 2-1 in 5-on-5 hockey. The Oilers come into this divisional match-up riding high as they eye their first playoff berth in 11 years. Edmonton is only 3 points behind Anaheim in the standings and they have a game on hand (which they will play tomorrow at San Jose) so the Oilers do have a chance to move in front of the Ducks before the All-Star break as Anaheim is idle tomorrow. Edmonton has won 5 of its last 6 games and the Oilers have won 8 of 12 this season when they are off of a game where they won by a margin of 2 goals or more. As for the Ducks, they have lost 3 straight games when facing a team with a winning record on the season. Edmonton has the more potent offense and, especially with Silfverberg out for Anaheim, look for that to be the difference here as Connor McDavid continues his fantastic season (leads the NHL in points). Grab the underdog price with the Oilers as a solid road dog on the money line in this one Wednesday night.

10* TOP Illinois Illini -5.5 over Iowa Hawkeyes – 

Some may view this as a revenge spot for Iowa considering Illinois knocked them out of the Big Ten Tourney last March.  However, last February the Hawkeyes went into Illinois and beat the Illini by a dozen.  Iowa was a sizable favorite in that game but the fact is that the Hawkeyes don't often win at Illinois (Illini had won 12 of the past 14 meetings there) and now payback is on the minds of the hungry home team here.  While Illinois is improved this season, the Hawkeyes are not near the team they were last season.  This has been particularly true in games played away from Iowa as the Hawkeyes have gone just 1-6 away from home.  Illinois is 9-2 at home this season and very hungry for a win after back to back road losses in two tough settings - at Purdue and at Michigan last week.  Illinois is averaging 84 points per game at home this season and allowing only 70 points on average in those games.  The Hawkeyes are averaging only 70 points per game on the road while allowing 83 per game.  As you can see from those home/road stats, this setting absolutely has the potential to be a home blowout and we expect Iowa to fall to 0-4 ATS in road games this season.  The Hawkeyes also are a poor 3-10 ATS when off of a game where they allowed 80 points or more.  Another "strike" against Iowa here is the fact they haven't played since last week Thursday.  Rest is a good thing but sometimes too much of a good thing can certainly prove to be bad and rest has oftentimes led to rust for the Hawkeyes when it is too much time off between games.  Iowa is on an 18-41 ATS run when they enter a game after having had 5 or 6 days of rest.  As for the Illini, they are 3-0 both SU and ATS when they enter a game on a losing streak of 3 games or more.  With a 31-13 home mark in recent seasons (and one of those blemishes coming courtesy of the Hawkeyes last season), home revenge is set up perfectly here.  Take Illinois.

PLAY ON: DENVER NUGGETS - Our best NBA play for the night is on the Denver Nuggets at home minus the points over the Utah Jazz. As far as scheduling is concerned the Nuggets are in a great spot here as they catch the Jazz off a HUGE division game last night versus Oklahoma City, and having to travel and play without rest. Not to mention they'll be in the higher altitude of Denver which magnifies the fatigue factor against Utah, AND they are playing their 4th game in just five days (teams are 4-9 SU in that situation this year). This will be the fourth meeting of the season between these two teams with the home team winning each game. Denver has won 3 straight home games but did suffer a loss in their last outing at Minnesota so they'll be focused here. The Nuggets are shooting nearly 52% their last five games and they'll find plenty of open looks against a tired Jazz team. Utah has played well this season but they are 0-6 ATS their last six away from home. We predict a double digit win by the home team here. 

10* Top Play Iowa State -4.5 over Kansas State – The Cyclones are catching the Wildcats in a tough spot.  Kansas State is off of an upset win over West Virginia Saturday and are vulnerable here.  The Cats are back on the Big 12 road where they've lost 2 of 3 already this season.  The Wildcats allowed the Mountaineers to hit 38% of their three pointers in their win Saturday and their ability (or lack thereof) to defend shots from beyond the arc is a definite concern.  Kansas State had allowed 54.5%, 45%, 40%, 54.% and 50% in their five prior Big 12 games.  In home games, Iowa State is knocking down 37% of their three pointers this season and can definitely take advantage of this weakness in the Cats D.  They Cyclones did lose their most recent home game (albeit against highly ranked Kansas) and this is their only other home game that is on their schedule between games on the 7th and 31st of this month.  In other words, Iowa State will go all out here as they certainly don't want to go 3 and 1/2 weeks without a home win!  In the Big 12, it is critical to take care of business at home and the Cyclones are laying a small number here which has us backing the hungry home team for what should be a rather easy cover.  Before their 5-point win at Oklahoma Saturday, 10 of Iowa State's first 11 wins this season all came by a margin of 7 points or more.  Kansas State is only 5-21 SU in their last 26 road games.  Also, when the Wildcats are off of a win in Big 12 action, they have a 5-12 SU record in their next game.  The Cyclones are 36-5 SU in home games and have covered 5 of their last 7 as a home fave in a range of 3.5 to 6 points.  When off of a game where they allowed 80 points or more, Iowa State has responded by going 15-6 SU.  We expect that the Cyclones will respond again here by winning for the 4th time in their last 5 meetings with the Wildcats.  Take Iowa State.

PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER (+5.5) over @UTAH JAZZ, 9PM ET - We like the OKC Thunder plus the points over the host Utah Jazz. This is a great spot to play on the Thunder as they last played on Wednesday which means a full 4 days rest and practice time which is hard to come by in a busy NBA schedule.   OKC is also coming off a pair of road losses at the Clippers and Warriors so they should be properly focused and motivated here. Utah also beat this Thunder team at home in mid-December by 20-points but OKC was off a game the night before in Portland and they ended up shooting just 36% from the field and allowed the Jazz to hit over 58%. What's significant about those shooting percentages is that the Thunder shoot nearly 46% on the season (12th best) while the Jazz shoot 46.6% which is 8th best but still not the 58% they made in the last meeting. So we expect the law of averages to even out in this game. These two teams are relatively close in terms of offensive and defensive efficiency ratings but the Thunder have played the 8th hardest schedule in the NBA while the Jazz have played the 17th. With the added rest, revenge, schedule discrepancy and a return to normal shooting percentages we like OKC to get the cash easily in this one. 

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER the total (155.5) in Oklahoma State Cowboys vs TCU Horned Frogs, Monday at 7:00 PM ET: Game No. 527

The first numbers that popped up on this game Sunday had the total in the 161 range and it has now dropped into the 155 range as we near mid-day Monday. Much of this line move likely stems from TCU's ugly performance (at home no less) versus Baylor Saturday. Why should one expect the Horned Frogs to bounce back here? For one thing, Oklahoma State is allowing 79.3 points per game this season which ranks them last in the Big 12. Secondly, TCU is a perfect 4-0 to the over this season when they are off of a game where they were held under 65 points. The Horned Frogs will be ready to respond but they'll have to be ready to "run and gun" with the Cowboys as Oklahoma State is the highest scoring team in the Big 12 with 87.8 points per game and their shooting has been red hot over the past 4 games and particularly they have been on fire from three point range in their last two games. Though the Cowboys held the Red Raiders to 64 points Saturday, that type of performance has been the exception rather than the norm for the sub-par defense of OSU. In fact, when off of a game where they held their opponent to 70 points or less, the Cowboys have allowed an average of 84 points per game in their next game. The Horned Frogs are likely to "go off" here after their ugly offensive performance versus the Bears Saturday. Additionally, the OSU defensive pressure can be expected to be even more lax than usual in this one as the over is 7-2 this season when they enter a match-up with just one day of rest between games. The over is 3-1 in Oklahoma State's home games this season and the over is 6-2 this season when the Cowboys are a favorite. TCU shot a ridiculous 29% from the field against Baylor Saturday. Not only does that invoke an aggressive approach to this game Monday, the Horned Frogs are back on the Big 12 road where they have shot at least 45% in all three games so far this season. Couple that with the fact that the Cowboys attacking style in the offensive end leads to points in big scoring spurts and we expect plenty of big scoring runs here. Bet the OVER in Oklahoma State in this one early Monday evening.

ASA  We will play on the Minnesota Timberwolves (-4) over the Denver Nuggets, 7PM ET. This is a great spot to fade the Nuggets who are off a big win last night in Denver over the LA Clippers and now have to travel to face a rested Timberwolves club. Denver has won 4 of their last five games but those W's came against a 22-21 Pacers team, 16-31 Lakers team, 18-27 Magic and a injury depleted Clippers team so we're hardly impressed. On the road the Nuggets have an average point differential of minus -4.3PPG and shoot less than 44% as a team. A big part of Denver's offense comes on the glass but that gets negated here against a Wolves team that has the 3rd best defensive rebounding team in the NBA. Another decisive advantage the Wolves have working for them is how bad the Nuggets defense is, ranking last in defensive efficiency ratings and 3rd to last in points allowed per game. Minnesota is 9-13 SU at home and have a positive differential of +2.4PPG which is right around the league average. They have won 3 straight at home over the Mavs, Rockets and Thunder and are playing better on their home court with 4 straight covers. There is also a small revenge factor here as the Nuggets beat the Wolves at home recently by just 2-points. Lay the points with Minnesota in this one!

ASA PLAY 10* New England -6 over Pittsburgh, Sunday at 7:40 PM ET

It’s hard to ignore New England’s home field advantage.  They have won almost 90% of their games at home over the last 4 seasons (33-4 SU) but even more impressive they are 26-9-2 ATS mark (74%).  Pittsburgh, on the other hand, was not a great road team this year.  They were just 5-3 away from home in the regular season despite playing only one playoff team on the road (a 30-15 loss @ Miami).   The Steelers averaged 30 PPG at home with Roethlisberger under center but just 21 PPG on the road.  Big Ben at home had a QB rating of 117 and on the road just 78.  He’s thrown 20 TD’s and 5 picks at home and 9 TD’s and 9 interceptions on the road.  He’s facing a New England defense that doesn’t get a lot of publicity but leads the NFL allowing only 15.6 PPG which is a full 3 points better than Seattle who finished 2nd.  Because of Roethlisberger’s road struggles we give a nice edge at QB to Brady at home in this one.  Also throw in the fact that Brady has owned the Steelers with a 7-2 lifetime record throwing 24 TD’s and just 3 interceptions.  Brady’s 114 QB Rating vs Pittsburgh is the second highest of his career vs any opponent.  The Pats also have an edge on the sidelines.  Belichick vs Tomlin is a mismatch in our opinion.  New England also had an extra day to rest and prepare having played on Saturday while Pitt played Sunday night @ KC.  Steelers have also been fighting the flu this week with 15 players having to sit out practice on Wednesday & Thursday with the illness.  New England played poorly last week at home vs Houston and we look for them to rebound with a very good performance on Sunday.  We’ll lay it with the Patriots.

#615 - ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON West Virginia Mountaineers -3 over Kansas State Wildcats, Saturday at 6:00 PM ET

Winning can make a team complacent and the Mountaineers found that out the hard way with their home loss to Oklahoma Wednesday in a game where they allowed the winning bucket on an end to end drive in the final five seconds.  West Virginia was a big double digit favorite in that game but their defensive pressure had regressed in recent weeks as they continued piling up wins and that resulted in a bit of a "let up" from the Mountaineers on the defensive end.  Having now not covered 4 of their last 5 games, the Mountaineers should get a big road win and cover as the loss to the Sooners was a wake-up call for this team.  They catch the Wildcats at the perfect time as Kansas State is off of a rare Big 12 road win.  The Cats win at Oklahoma State Wednesday was just their 2nd road win in their last 19 Big 12 contests away from home.  Even though Kansas State is back in Manhattan for this Saturday evening match-up, they are facing a pressing West Virginia defense that will look to disrupt the Wildcats just like they did in last season's 15-point beatdown in Morgantown.  The Cats are known for having trouble with success as they are 4-12 SU when off of a win in conference action.  Kansas State's point guard, Kamau Stokes, suffered an ankle injury in the win over the Cowboys and having a hobbled starting point guard when facing a Mountaineers team known for it's full-court press is not a good situation for this home dog to be in.  The Wildcats are 8-26 SU as an underdog and the Mountaineers are laying a very small number here so nearly any SU loss for Kansas State is likely to be an ATS win for West Virginia.  The Mountaineers are fired up after the embarrassing home loss as a large favorite.  We look for West Virginia to respond in a big way here.  They are 8-2 SU the last 10 times they were off of a game where they allowed 80 points or more.  Normally, as a favorite, West Virginia takes care of business (46-10 SU record) and the Mountaineers point differential this season (outscoring opponents by 25 points per game) is certainly very impressive.  They don't just beat teams...they beat them into submission and that is what we fully expect here in this strong situational spot.  Lay the short number with the Mountaineers for a Top Play.

We like Boston at home minus the points over the visiting Portland Trailblazers. Portland is coming off a game last night and are playing their 4th straight road game in a 6-day span. On the flip side the Celtics have had a few days’ rest and have a clear scheduling advantage in this one. When playing without rest the Blazers are just 3-6 SU and ATS.  The Blazers starting backcourt of Lillard and McCollum both logged over 35 minutes last night and they’ll have a tough time keeping up with the Celtics Isaiah Thomas who has been outstanding of late for Boston averaging nearly 35PPG his last 9 games. The Blazers have one of the worst road point differentials in the NBA at -6.3PPG and have not traveled well this season. Boston had won 7 straight games at home before suffering an upset loss to the Knicks in their last game. That works for us here as the Celtics are 12-4 SU off a loss this season, 7-1 at home. Five of Boston’s last 7 home wins have come by 9 or more points so we’re not intimated by the spread in this game. Lay the points!

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 5.5 goals (+130) in Detroit Red Wings @ Buffalo Sabres, Friday at 7:05 PM ET

The Red Wings are off of a 6-5 home win over Boston and that was the 5th over in Detroit's last 6 games. A slowdown here is unlikely as the over is 10-6 this season when the Red Wings are off of a game where they allowed 4 goals or more. Also, when off of a divisional game, the over is 10-5 in Detroit's games this season. The Red Wings have won 3 straight games and Detroit has a long-term mark of 12-6 to the over when they are on a winning streak of 3 games or more. Buffalo also has been getting involved in plenty of high-scoring match-ups recently. The over is 5-2 in the Sabres last 7 games and Buffalo did win 4-3 at Detroit in late December. The Sabres have scored 3 goals or more in 6 of their 8 games this month and the Red Wings have scored 3 goals or more in 9 of their last 12 games. Buffalo has scored 4 goals in 3 straight home games and this one is likely to turn into a shootout as the Sabres goalie Robin Lehner was pulled from his last start and his back-up, Anders Nilsson, is dealing with an illness. The Red Wings also are not without goaltending issues as their #1 netminder, Jimmy Howard, is still out with an injury and both Jared Coreau and Petr Mrazek have battled inconsistency between the pipes. All signs point to a good shot at getting this one to at least 6 goals and there is a nice positive return on the over 5.5 goals in this match-up. Bet the OVER in Buffalo in this one early Friday evening.

#717 – Thursday 10* TOP Richmond Spiders +12 over Dayton Flyers @ 7 ET – The Spiders enter this one on a 5-game winning streak and, as a result, come into this game with perfect 5-0 mark in Atlantic Ten action. While this certainly has the full attention of a talented Flyers team, it does not make the match-up any easier for Dayton. The fact is that Richmond is known for giving the Flyers tough games and they are definitely well-coached under Chris Mooney. The Spiders are the kind of team that will throw a lot of different defensive looks at you and coach Mooney has his team firing on all cylinders right now. Richmond had lost the two prior regular season match-ups with Dayton by a combined 4 points before getting knocked out of the Atlantic Ten Tournament last spring in a rare, poor showing for the Spiders as the Flyers took it 69-54. Of course that makes this a revenge game for Richmond and we expect them to shoot much better than they did in that March match-up last year. The Spiders are full of confidence thanks to their winning streak as well as the fact that they are averaging 77 points per game during the winning streak plus shooting the ball very well including their three pointers! Richmond has only lost 1 game by more than 8 points this entire season and that was because they hit an inexplicable 8.7% of their three pointers in that game. That one preceded this 5-game winning streak and the Spiders have been a different team ever since. Richmond also has stepped things up on the defensive end where they've held each of their last two opponents under 40% from the field. The Flyers have played a schedule that is very similar to that of the Spiders this season and Dayton is 13-4 on the season. However, prior to their blowout win at Duquesne, 6 of the Flyers last 11 wins had come by a margin of 11 points or less. This big line move toward Dayton (up to as high as a 12.5 as of mid-day Thursday) is offering great line value to a Spiders team that has the confidence and moxie of the types of teams that are up for a challenge like this one. Richmond only lost by 3 points in their last visit to Dayton! The Flyers are known for their tough defense but they've actually allowed 43% from the field in their last 3 games combined and guard Kyle Davis is dealing with an ankle injury. We expect Dayton to drop to 2-5 ATS the last 7 times they've been a home favorite of 9.5 to 12 points. Look for the hungry and revenging underdog Spiders to improve to a perfect 3-0 ATS the last 3 times they've been a road underdog of 9.5 to 12 points. Dayton is a great team but not near enough respect is being given to Richmond and the Spiders one weakness (depth) is not an issue here as they've been off since Saturday. Look for another monster game from TJ Cline and the Spiders 6'9 forward is known for giving the Flyers a lot of trouble and is leading Richmond in points, rebounds, and assists but also has plenty of help from guys like ShawnDre' Jones, Khwan Fore, and De'Monte Buckingham. We’ll grab the line value in this one and take the generous points for a 10* TOP Thursday.

PLAY ON: SACRAMENTO KINGS - We like the Sacramento Kings at home tonight over the visiting Indiana Pacers.  The Pacers are 6-1 their last seven games overall and off a home win over the Pelicans on Monday. Prior to that they played in London and were blown out by the Nuggets. With a closer look at the Pacers recent games we find they haven't beaten a team with a winning record and those 6 wins came against teams with a combined 99-155 record on the season. Indiana plays MUCH better at home than they do on the road which is a big part of our reasoning tonight. At home the Pacers have the 9th best home point differential in the NBA BUT on the road they have the 3rd worst at minus -7.7PPG. As far as the Kings are concerned tonight is a very big game for them as they are playing their last home game of a 7 game home stand and must go on the road after tonight. The Kings went just 1-5 SU in this recent stretch of games but they lost to: OKC, Cavs, Warriors, Clippers and Heat.  And all of those games were relatively close losses. Even with the Heat included in that stretch those teams have a combined record of 130-79. In fact, the Kings have played the leagues 9th hardest schedule while the Pacers have played the 27th easiest. Sacramento is 4-1 ATS as a favorite less than 3.5 points while the Pacers are 2-7 ATS in that same price range as a dog. Take Sacramento here!

ASA TOP PLAY 10* on OVER 5.5 goals (-105) in Toronto Maple Leafs vs Buffalo Sabres, Tuesday at 7:35 PM ET

Buffalo is off of a 4-1 home win versus Dallas Monday afternoon. Robin Lehner was in goal for the Sabres in that one and that makes this a tough back to spot for Buffalo in terms of the goaltending situation. It means that Lehner either goes again on back to back days or that the Sabres go with Anders Nilsson and neither option is a good one. Back to backs are tough on netminders so if Lehner get the call he's likely to struggle. As for Nilsson, his last three road starts have all been losses and the Sabres allowed 13 goals in those games. As you would expect with those numbers, all 3 games went over the total. While things look dismal for Buffalo in terms of keeping the puck out of their own net in this one, a recent positive for the Sabres has been improved goal-scoring. With yesterday's win Buffalo has now won 4 of its last 7 games and they have averaged 3.3 goals per game during this 7-game stretch. They'll need all the goals they can get here because Toronto comes into this game having won 8 of its last 10 games. The resurgent Maple Leafs have scored an average of 4.1 goals per game during this 10-game hot streak and they have not been held under 3 goals in any of the games. The over has cashed in each of Toronto's last 6 games and we see no reason to expect anything different in this divisional match-up Tuesday. Look for the Maple Leafs "over streak" to reach 7 games! Bet the OVER in Toronto in this one Tuesday evening.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* on OVER the total (144) in Purdue Boilermakers vs Illinois Illini, Tuesday at 7:00 PM ET: Game No. 715

After destroying the Hawkeyes by 22 earlier this season, the Boilermakers gave a disappointing effort at Iowa Thursday and lost by 5 as a 6 point favorite. Purdue can't wait to get back on the court and atone for that loss and that means this one is likely to be played at a frenetic pace. The Boilermakers are going to hit the court running and they're not going to let up considering what happened at Iowa last week. That's bad news for Illinois but the good news for the Illini is that they have been getting strong backcourt play and the Boilermakers have proven susceptible to strong backcourts this season. The Illini have a trio of guards that have been putting up big numbers and they should enjoy plenty of success against Purdue's perimeter defense. The Boilermakers have allowed 75 points or more in 3 of their last 4 games and they allowed an average of 40% from three point land in those 3 games. On the other end of the floor Purdue is continuing to put up big numbers. The Boilermakers are averaging 82.6 points per game this season. Purdue is knocking down 48.5% of their shots this season and they're hosting an Illini team that is hitting 47% from the field but off of a rare dud where they were held to just 56 points against Maryland Saturday. Illinois had scored at least 75 points in 7 of their last 8 games and they should get right back on track here in a game that is set up well for an over as Purdue will be happy to run and gun in this one. 4 of Purdue's 5 Big Ten match-ups have totaled at least 151 points. The lone exception was the Wisconsin game and that's understandable based on the style the Badgers like to play. Overall it is a 3-1 run to the over in Boilermakers games and the Illini had gone over the total in 5 straight games and 8 of their last 10 before they got shut down by the Terrapins this past weekend. The over is 13-5 in Illinois games the last 18 times they have been off of a game where they scored 60 points or less. The over is 8-3 this season in Purdue's games against teams with a winning record. This total opened up at a 144 and the over is 7-2 this season in Boilermakers games that have a total set in a range of 140 to 149.5 points. Look for this one to be played at a fast pace as Purdue is fired up to respond after their loss at Iowa. Bet the OVER in Purdue in this one Tuesday evening.

UNDER 204 Utah Jazz @ Phoenix Suns, 9PM ET - We like UNDER 204 in the Utah Jazz at Phoenix Suns game. Let’s start with the basics. The average total points scored in an NBA game right now is just a shade lower than 210 total points. The number on that game is obviously lower than that but not enough in our opinion based on current statistics. First, the Jazz are the slowest paced team in the league at 91.2 possession per game and second, they allow just 1.039 points per possession #1 in the NBA. The Suns on the other hand are the 3rd fastest paced team at 99.5PPP. BUT, in their last five games the Suns have averaged just 92.5 possessions per game which is the 3rd slowest average in the NBA. The Jazz have held 7 of their last ten opponents to less than 92PPG which includes a game against Brooklyn who is very similar to Phoenix and the Suns when they allowed just 86 points in the previous meeting with Phoenix (177 total pts). The dominate team (Utah) will dictate tempo here just as they’ve done in the past four meetings on this court where they’ve averaged 185 total points per game. Phoenix is coming off two games in the higher altitude of Mexico City and may be a little fatigued here too. Easy bet UNDER!

#545 – ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON Kansas -2.5 over Iowa State, Monday at 9:00 PM ET When these teams have matched up recently and the game is not in Kansas, the Cyclones have held the upper hand. Iowa State has won two straight at home in this series and also beat the Jayhawks on a neutral floor in the Big 12 Tourney two years ago. However, we feel that Kansas is favored in this one with good reason. The 15-1 Jayhawks are taking on an 11-5 Cyclones team that is having some issues on the defensive end. Iowa State just lost at TCU on Saturday and the Cyclones allowed the Horned Frogs to hit 56.9% of their shots from the field. One could argue that Iowa State was caught looking ahead to this showdown with Kansas and, in fact, that is a true statement. However, the fact is that this is now the 3rd straight game in which Cyclones opponents have connected on at least 52.9% from the field. The other concerning aspect of that (if you're an Iowa State fan) is the fact the other two games were against Texas and Oklahoma State and those teams are a combined 1-9 this season in Big 12 action. The porous defense of the Cyclones is not going to allow them to get enough stops to upset the 15-1 Jayhawks here no matter how loud Hilton Coliseum is in Ames tonight. Look for Frank Mason (averaging a league-high 20.5 points per game) to lead the way for Kansas tonight. The Jayhawks backcourt is a key to notching big road wins and Mason has been getting plenty of support. Against Oklahoma State on Saturday, Josh Jackson had 20 points and Devonte Graham also scored huge with 21 points! The Kansas defense wasn't at its best in the win over the Cowboys but they had previously been strong and we expect a bounce back here. After all, in recent seasons the Jayhawks are 8-0 SU when they are off of a game where they allowed 80 points or more and their long-term mark is 50-25 ATS when they are coming off of a game where they allowed 80 points or more. All Kansas has heard about coming into this game is how Iowa State has been a bit of a nemesis for the Jayhawks in recent seasons. We expect Kansas to put an end to that talk tonight by making a big statement on the road. Lay the short number with the Jayhawks Monday night.

#11 – ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON Washington Capitals Money Line +120 over Pittsburgh Penguins, Monday at 7:00 PM ET It has been a season of streaks in the NHL with the Blue Jackets, Wild, Flyers, and now Capitals all putting together lengthy winning streaks. Washington is certainly not showing any signs of slowing down. With their 5-0 win over Philadelphia yesterday, the Capitals have now won 9 straight games and the last 6 wins have come by a dominating margin of 26-3. That means the last 6 victories for the Caps have come by an "average" score of 4 to 1 and there is certainly nothing "average" about that type of domination. As Washington goes for their 10th straight win Monday, they will have red hot goaltender Braden Holtby between the pipes again as they gave him the day off in yesterday's shutout win over the Flyers. Holtby is 4-0 with a ridiculous .972 save percentage as he has been absolutely dominant in his last 4 starts. Many will look at this game and see the revenge angle for the Penguins as the Capitals beat the Pens last week. However, "playoff revenge" is truly bigger than any other type of revenge and Pittsburgh won the Stanley Cup last season and they got there only after knocking the Caps out of the post-season in a tough series. With that said, Washington is making the most of every game with the Penguins on the docket this season and we expect the Capitals to make it 3 straight wins over the Pens and 10 straight wins overall! The Caps have won 12 of 18 games against teams with a winning record this season while Pittsburgh has only won 9 of 18 games this season when facing a team with a winning record. Also, the Penguins come into this game having lost 3 straight games overall. We'll grab the underdog line value with Washington on the money line for a Top Play Monday evening.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 44.5 - Pittsburgh @ Kansas City, Sunday at 8:20PM ET

This game has been moved from a 1:00 PM ET Sunday start to an 8:20 PM ET start to try and avoid the ice storm that will hit the area this weekend.  They are hoping it will be pass through completely by the time the game starts.  This total is set low with the weather in mind, however we think it is too low.  Even if the field conditions aren’t great, that favors the offense in our opinion, especially with little wind which is expected the be the case on Sunday night.  Pittsburgh is one of the top offenses in the NFL.  They are 6th in the NFL averaging 372 YPG and they put up 25 PPG.  Those numbers are skewed even lower than they should be in our opinion as they had to play a game with Roethlisberger on the bench with an injury and another with Big Ben not even close to 100%.  The fact it this team scored 24 points or more in 12 of the 15 games that Big Ben was under center and one of the three where they didn’t he probably shouldn’t have been in the game due to an injury.  The KC defense seems to get more props than they deserve.  The Chief defense actually ranks 24th in total defense and isn’t particularly stout vs the run or the pass.  The Steelers shredded this defense for 43 polnts on 436 yards in their match up earlier this season.  Can KC score against Pitt?  We believe they will.  The Chief offense is better than most believe.  They averaged 24 PPG facing a very tough “defensive” schedule (ranked 8th in the NFL).  When KC faced off against a top 10 offense, you could tell by their game plan that Andy Reid knew he couldn’t hold the opponent in check and that he had to be more aggressive on offense and score to have a chance.  Of their 8 games vs top 10 scoring offenses, the Chiefs offense eclipsed their 24 PPG average in 7 of those games.  They were aggressive on offense.  The only time they did not was vs this Pittsburgh team but that changes here.  In those 8 games vs top 10 scoring offenses KC & their opponent averaged 50 points.  Reid knows he has to again be aggressive here because they are not going to shut down a team that scored 43 on them already this year.  KC’s offense is playing better down the stretch than they have all season scoring at least 29 points in 4 of their final 6 games.  Another key factor here is KC’s “non offensive” TD capability.  They led the NFL in defensive/special teams TD’s scoring a whopping 8 on the year.  We’ve almost come to expect one each game from them and if they get one here, this definitely goes OVER.  Even if they don’t, the two offenses will put points on the board and OVER is the play. 

ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 51.5 - Green Bay @ Dallas, Sunday at 4:40 PM ET - ASA's NFL PLAYOFF TOTAL OF THE YEAR

These are two of the top offenses in the NFL and we don’t see either defense slowing down the opposing offense.  Green Bay ranks 3rd in the NFL in scoring offense and 4th in the NFL in offensive efficiency.  Dallas ranks 5th in scoring offense and 3rd in offensive efficiency.  With these two offenses facing middle to lower of the pack defenses we don’t think either team scores less than 24 points in this one and that’s worst case scenario.  That would be 48 total points as a worst case in our opinion (but obviously it couldn’t end in a 24-24 tie) and that’s just 4.5 points from where this total sits.  Green Bay has scored 30 or more points in 5 consecutive games while Dallas hit 30 points or more 6 times this year, including vs Green Bay in their first meeting.  Not only has GB hit 30 on a consistent basis, they did so against very good defense scoring 38 vs NY Giants, Minnesota, AND Seattle down the stretch.  Jordy Nelson is out for the Packers but this team is definitely equipped to keep rolling without him.  Randall Cobb is back and full strength and Devante Adams has emerged as one of the better WR’s in the league.  Also TE Jared Cook is finally healthy and he gives Rodgers another downfield threat.  Nelson went out early in last week’s game vs NYG and Green Bay was still able to put up 38 points on one of the top defenses in the NFL.  Both of these offenses are capable of scoring 30 or more in this game.  Both of these defenses, as we stated, are middle to lower of the pack with Dallas ranking 14th in total defense and Green Bay ranking 22nd.  The Packer defense has done a better job of keeping teams out of the endzone during their 7 game winning streak but a closer look reveals they have not played ONE top 10 offense (efficiency wise) over that span.  They were extremely fortunate last week as the Giants (a bad offense) put up 200 yards in the first half but blew numerous scoring chances and had only 6 points.  The last top 10 offense GB played was Washington who put up 42 on them.  In fact if you break down the full season, Green Bay played four games vs teams that ended the season with a top 10 offense (efficiency).  Those games were vs Dallas, Atlanta, Tennessee, and Washington.  In those games GB allowed 30, 33, 47, and 42 points respectively.  Now let’s do the same with the Dallas defense.  They were in four games as well vs top 10 offenses vs Green Bay, Washington (twice), and Pittsburgh.  In those games they allowed 16, 23, 26, and 30 points respectively.  That 16 vs GB the first time around was an aberration in our mind.  First of all the Packers were struggling mightily at that time and they still put up 374 yards (Dallas had 424 yards) which would normally equate to 28 points based on Green Bay’s yards per point numbers on the year.  These two both struggle to slow down opposing QB’s which plays right into a high scoring game.  Rodgers is red hot and he’s facing a Dallas defense that has allowed opposing QB’s to complete 67% of their passes which is the 2nd WORST in the NFL ahead of only Detroit.  What did Rodgers and Green Bay do against Detroit?  They topped 30 points both times.  Green Bay’s defensive backfield has been decimated by injuries.  They have guys starting that would normally not have even seen the field this year.  The Packer defense is allowing opposing QB’s to hit on 64% of their attempts which is 21st in the league.  With their very good running game (#1 in the NFL) who rushed for nearly 200 yards on GB in the first game, that will open up easy passes for Prescott who completed 67% for 250 yards and 3 TD’s in the first meeting.  Lastly, when these two teams were supposed to be in high scoring games this year, they were.  Dallas had 2 totals set in the 50’s this year and both games went OVER the number.  Green Bay had 3 totals set in the 50’s and all three of those games went OVER as well.  We envision the offenses completely controlling this game.  It will be a back and forth type game with a “whoever has the ball last will win” type scenario.  This total is set high but it’s there for a reason.  The conditions for scoring will be perfect in Jerry World and this one gets into the 60’s and goes well OVER this number.   

PLAY ON: WASHINGTON WIZARDS - This is going to be a shorter than usual analysis as we are in a time crunch on Saturday with a deep college card and the NFL games. We normally wouldn't lay this many points with Washington but the situation is warranted. The Wizards are off a loss at Boston which will have them focused for the 76ers tonight. Not to mention the 76ers have won 3 straight so the Wiz won't take them for granted. Philly has had problems playing without rest this season and a lot of that is from a minutes restriction on their best overall player Joel Embiid who will not play today. Philly is 1-6 SU this year when playing the second night of a back-to-back with an average loss margin of 13PPG. Washington on the other hand is rested having last played January 11th. Washington was recently a -11.5 point home favorite over Chicago who is much better than Philly so we're not intimidated by the spread today. The Wiz have covered 7 of their last eight at home over teams with sub .500 record. Lay the points with Washington!

#565 – Saturday 10* TOP Florida State Seminoles +7.5 over North Carolina @ 2 ET – The Seminoles enter this one on a 12-game winning streak and it is not as if the Seminoles haven't been tested!  In fact, this will be their 4th straight game against a ranked opponent.  Florida State seeks revenge here for a home loss to North Carolina last season where the Tar Heels dominated the glass.  We don't expect that type of rebounding edge for UNC in this one.  The Noles possess formidable frontcourt options this season with guys like 7-1 Michael Ojo, 6-10 Jonathan Isaac, 6-9 Jarquez Smith and 7-4 Christ Koumadje.  Making the challenge even tougher for the Tar Heels is the fact that UNC 6-10 center Tony Bradley is going to miss this game.  Even though Bradley is a back-up, he is the Tar Heels 2nd leading rebounder with 5.7 boards per game.  North Carolina, even without Bradley, has plenty of size up front but the Seminoles do pose a formidable challenge and certainly are unlikely to be dominated on the boards like they were in last season's match-up.  Florida State is on a 14-7 ATS run (including a perfect 3-0 this season) when they are coming off of a win in ACC action and we look for them to again maintain their momentum here as they get another cover even if they do fall short of the outright upset.  In their last visit to Chapel Hill, the Seminoles lost by only 4 points.  This point spread range is the "sweet spot" for the Tar Heels to get upset as North Carolina is only 2-4 SU when they are a home favorite in a range of 6.5 to 9 points.  UNC has covered just 1 of those 6 games and we expect that record to drop to just 1 of 7 ATS by the time this one is in the books!  We wouldn’t be at all surprised if the Seminoles end up with a great shot to win this one outright so we’ll grab the line value here and take the generous points.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Columbus Blue Jackets Money Line (-) over Tampa Bay Lightning, Friday at 8:05 PM ET

Perfect set up for the Blue Jackets here. Columbus, since winning 16 straight, has lost 3 of 4. However, the Jackets did not have #1 goalie Sergei Bobrovsky in 2 of the 3 losses. He is listed as probable for tonight's game and that should help key a Blue Jackets victory as they catch the Lightning in a tough spot here. Even though Tampa Bay is at home it is the 2nd game for them on back to back nights and Ben Bishop was in goal last night. That means the Bolts have to put Bishop in a back to back situation or go with another goalie. Neither option is particularly palatable for the Lightning and it should come as no surprise that Tampa Bay has lost 6 of 7 times when in a back to back this season and has lost 24 of 34 when a back to back the past three seasons. Though the Bolts are off of a win they had lost 4 straight coming into last night's game. Tampa has also been dominated by a combined score of 10-4 in their first two games with Columbus this season. The Blue Jackets have won 7 of 8 games this season when they enter with 2 days of rest between games. Also, Columbus is a perfect 8-0 on Fridays this season. This is the perfect spot for 9 in a row with that angle! Lay the small price with the Blue Jackets on the road on the money line in this one Friday evening.

#705 Boston Celtics (+2.5) over Atlanta Hawks, 8PM ET - Today  we are going to play on the Boston Celtics plus the points over the Atlanta Hawks. Atlanta comes into this game red hot and on an 7 game winning streak! Wait what? Yep, we're playing against the Hawks and here's why. Yes, the Hawks have won 7 straight but only ONE of those wins game against a team with a winning record and that was home against the Spurs in OT. The other 6 wins came against teams with a combined winning record of 88-150 so we're really NOT impressed with Atlanta's current run. Not to mention the Hawks are 10-7 SU at home but have an average point differential of just +.4PPG which is 20th worst in the NBA. Now they face a Boston team that is 12-9 SU away from home this season with the 5th best road point differential of +1.9PPG and a team that has won 11 of their last 14 overall. The Celtics have dropped two straight road games but they came at Toronto and Cleveland who are the two best teams in the East right now. Prior to that the C's had won 4 straight away from home.  We like Boston to get a win tonight on the road in Atlanta.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* Marquette Golden Eagles (-) over Seton Hall Pirates, Wednesday at 7 PM ET: Game #738

Marquette is off of back to back losses as they just faced the reigning national champs, Villanova, and prior to that, lost at Seton Hall. That makes this the perfect spot to back the Golden Eagles. They seek revenge against the Pirates and now get them in Milwaukee where we expect a big game from Marquette as they look to rebound off of back to back defeats. Seton Hall is off of a huge win Saturday where seemingly everything they were throwing up went in. The Pirates shot 54% from the field and nailed 46.4% of their three pointers in that game but it was against perennial Big East doormat DePaul. The easy win over the Blue Demons could have Seton Hall a little over-confident and that sets this one up nicely because there is no doubt Marquette is going to bring a strong effort given the situation. The extra motivation is in the fact that they led the Pirates by 3 at Seton Hall with less than 40 seconds left before letting that game slip away in a wild half minute of action that closed out the game last week. With the rematch in Milwaukee, look for things to play out much differently this time around. The Golden Eagles are 8-1 at home this season and the Pirates have only gone a modest 5-3 away from home this season. Also, Seton Hall is only 3-7 ATS this season in their games against teams with a winning record. The opening total on this game was set at 156 so plenty of points expected here and Marquette (averaging 83.6 points per game this season) has won 5 of 6 (and gone 4-2 ATS) in home games where the O/U is set in a range of 155 to 159.5 points. Included in that record is a perfect 2-0 SU and ATS mark for the Golden Eagles this season to date and we look for them to again get the job done here. Lay the points with Marquette for a Top Play Wednesday!