Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-04-23 | TCU v. Baylor -5 | Top | 88-87 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 26 m | Show |
#728 ASA TOP PLAY ON Baylor -5 over TCU, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - The Bears were embarrassed at Iowa State in their most recent game losing 77-62 @ Iowa State as a 1.5 point favorite. The Bears played that game without one of their best players, LJ Cryer, who averages 15 PPG on the season. He’s back for this game and we expect a big bounce back from Baylor after shooting well below their average in their ISU loss hitting only 37% of their shots (they average 47%) and just 22% from beyond the arc (they average 35%). This team has lost back to back games only ONCE since the start of the 22019 season. Now they are back at home where they average 87 PPG on 49% shooting with a perfect 7-0 record on the season. Going back further, Baylor has been dominant at home to say the least winning 47 of their last 50 games! TCU steps into this game with a 12-1 record having won 10 in a row. Problem is, they’ve played one of the easiest schedules in the nation (355th SOS) and they haven’t played a true road game yet this season. Almost half of their games (6) have come vs teams ranked outside the top 300. Despite playing an easy schedule, TCU has struggled to shoot the ball ranking 150th in FG% and 339th in 3 point FG%. Last year Baylor was favored by 10 at home in this game and won by 10. This year we’re getting them off a loss and at a discounted price. Lay it with the Bears. |
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01-04-23 | Thunder v. Magic -2 | Top | 115-126 | Win | 100 | 7 h 57 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Orlando Magic -2 over Oklahoma City Thunder, 7 PM ET - Both teams will have adjusted rosters here as OKC is missing All-Star guard Gilgeous-Alexander, while the Magic have several suspensions including both Wagners and Bol Bol. We don’t mind the Magic having a shorter rotation tonight as they’ve been off since last Friday so fatigue shouldn’t be a factor. Orlando had won 8 of nine games before losing their three most recent, the last coming at home. That helps set up tonight’s play on a rested, focused Orlando team. OKC is coming off one of their biggest wins of the season as they put up 150 on the Celtics last night. The Thunder shot well above season averages as they hit 59% overall and made 20 of 40 3-pointers or 50%. Oklahoma City is 1-3 SU this season when playing without rest with a negative differential of minus -5.2PPG. The Magic are 5-2 SU their last seven home games and will get a much-needed home victory here. |
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01-03-23 | Wizards v. Bucks OVER 228 | Top | 113-123 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 228 Washington Wizards @ Milwaukee Bucks, 8:10 PM ET - These two teams just squared off the other day in Milwaukee and produced 213 total points and stayed Under the number of 221.5. They had plenty of possessions though as the Wizards attempted 94 field goals, the Bucks hoisted 96. Milwaukee shot just 35% from the field overall and 27% from Deep which are both well below season averages of 45.6% and 34.2%. Washington scored 118-points without Bradley Beal (23.5PPG) who may be back in the lineup tonight. The Bucks were missing their two leading scorers as Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jrue Holiday were both out. Giannis and his 32PPG is expected back tonight along with Holiday’s 19PPG. Washington is averaging 121PPG in their last five contests and the Bucks defense is giving up that same amount in their last five games. Both of these teams will get to 115 or more points here. Bet Over |
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01-03-23 | Coyotes v. Panthers OVER 6.5 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 105 | 5 h 59 m | Show |
#55/56 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 6.5 Goals - Arizona Coyotes at Florida Panthers, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - The Panthers have decided to start Knight in goal because Bobrovsky just struggled in the 5-3 loss to the Rangers. The only problem with this logic for Florida is that Knight is also struggling. The young netminder has allowed 14 goals on 75 shots in his last 3 starts. Yes that is an average of about 5 goals per start! The Panthers have allowed an average of 5 goals in their last 5 losses. Florida has scored an average of 4.4 goals in their 16 wins this season. 8 of Florida's last 12 home games have finished with 7+ goals scored. The Coyotes are staring Karel Vejmelka between the pipes tonight. He is their top option in goal but he has struggled of late. He has allowed at least 3 goals in 12 of last 13 starts and is allowing 4 goals per start in his last 7 road starts. The Panthers are angry off losses in 5 of last 6 games and should score very well here on home ice. However, the Coyotes are confident right now as they have scored an average of 5 goals per game last 3 games and we see this one turning into a wild back and forth affair. The key here being Florida's big weakness in terms of allowing too many goals. Florida scores well at home but can not stop Arizona either and that leads to a solid win here. Look for at least 7 in this one! Over is our play here. |
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01-03-23 | Nebraska v. Michigan State UNDER 132 | Top | 56-74 | Win | 100 | 18 h 2 m | Show |
#613/614 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 132 Points – Nebraska vs Michigan State, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Defenses are the strengths of both teams in this match up. Both rank in the top 50 in adjusted defensive efficiency and both allow their opponents to make only 40% from the field on the season. Both also prefer a slower paced game with MSU ranking 300th in adjusted tempo and Nebraska 281st. MSU has not allowed more than 70 points since late November, a span of 6 straight games. The Husker defense has really improved this season holding a number of high scoring offenses in check including stopping Iowa in their tracks in their most recent game limiting the Hawkeyes to just 50 points (Iowa averages 81 PPG). Nebraska also held Purdue to 56 points in regulation (Boilers average 77 PPG) and Creighton to 53 points (Blue Jays average 77 PPG) just to name a few. Offensively neither of these teams is a great shooting team. Both rank outside the top 180 in FG% and outside the top 200 in points per game. Since we hit December, Nebraska has scored 65, 65, 56 (in regulation), 56, 75 (vs Queens College), and 66 points. Since November 30th the Spartans have topped 68 points only one time (6 games) and that was vs a Buffalo who is one of the fastest paced teams in the nation with a defense thar ranks 218th in efficiency. 5 of MSU’s last 6 games have totaled 133 points or less and 4 of Nebraska’s last 6 haven’t even reached 130 total points. Under here. |
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01-03-23 | Marquette v. St. John's +2.5 | Top | 96-85 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 54 m | Show |
#602 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* St Johns +2.5 over Marquette, Tuesday at 6:30 PM ET - Huge home game for STJ who has gotten off to a rough 1-3 start in Big East play. The Johnnies are coming off a poor performance @ Seton Hall where they were a 3.5 point dog and lost 88-66. In that game they underperformed on both ends of the court making only 41% of their shots and 22% of their triples. ON the defensive end they allowed the Hall to make 54% from the field. We expect them to bounce back at home where they are 8-1 on the season with their only loss coming by 5 points vs Xavier who is ranked in the top 20 and just beat #2 UConn by 10 points. Marquette is on the east coast for their 2nd game in 4 days after upsetting Villanova (who now is just 7-7 on the season) on Saturday. The Golden Eagles trailed for much of the 2nd half but pulled out a 68-66 win. Marquette has a solid 11-4 record but they’ve only played 3 true road games and lost 2 of those with their only win coming by 2 points as we discussed. The Eagles were dominated on the boards on Saturday (-11) and we anticipate the same here as STJ is the 13th best offensive rebounding team in the nation while Marquette ranks outside the top 200 in both offensive and defensive rebounding. The host in this series has covered 10 of the last 12 and we like the desperate home underdog in this game. |
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01-02-23 | Nuggets v. Wolves +2 | Top | 111-124 | Win | 100 | 7 h 11 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Minnesota Timberwolves +2 vs Denver Nuggets, 8:10 PM ET - This is a plug your nose type bet as we are going against a Nuggets team on a 10-2 run and playing on a Wolves team that has lost 6 straight. But ask yourself this, why are the Nuggets this low of a favorite? Minnesota is coming off a demoralizing home loss to the Pistons on Saturday which prompted a player only meeting. This team was considered a strong playoff team this season but the injury to Karl Anthony Towns has hurt more than expected. Denver is red hot, but they are also coming off a big home win yesterday against the Celtics which makes this the 2nd of a back-to-back for them. This is also Denver’s 5th game in seven days so fatigue will be a major factor here. Denver hasn’t been a trustworthy road favorite with a 15-18 ATS record in that role since the start of the 2021 season. Minnesota is a respectable 37-26 SU at home since 2021. We like the Wolves to get this much needed home win over a spent Nuggets team. |
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01-02-23 | Utah v. Penn State OVER 53 | Top | 21-35 | Win | 100 | 15 h 9 m | Show |
#283/284 ASA TOP PLAY ON Over 53 Points – Penn State vs Utah, Monday at 5 PM ET - Both of these offenses are capable of putting up big points. Utah averages 40 PPG while PSU averages 35 PPG on the season. The Utes put up at least 30 points in 10 of their 13 games this season and PSU scored at least 30 in 10 of their 12 games. Both defenses had very good overall seasonal numbers, however those were bolstered by facing a number of weak offenses. Utah was involved in 6 games this season vs top 35 offenses. In those games the Utes defense allowed an average of 30 PPG in those games. PSU has faced 2 offenses ranked in the top 35 (OSU & Michigan) and they allowed 44 & 41 points in those 2 games. Both offenses are ranked in the top 35 nationally for comparison’s sake. Both are also very balanced and tough to defend as neither are one dimensional. Two of the top cover corners in CFB will be missing in this game with Porter opting out for PSU and Phillips for Utah. That should absolutely help both passing attacks in this one. We have 2 experienced, high level QB’s competing and both dual threat which will make it tough on the opposing defenses. Utah’s QB Rising has thrown for 5,500 yards & 45 TD’s while rushing for 900 yards in his career. PSU’s Clifford has thrown for over 10,000 yards in his career with 84 TD’s while rushing for more than 1,000 yards. The weather was originally looking slightly rainy but the new forecast as of Sunday says light winds (less than 5 MPH) with rain holding off until late in the game if it rains at all. 53 total points is too low and we’ll take the Over. |
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01-01-23 | Colts v. Giants -5.5 | Top | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
#122 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* NY Giants -5.5 vs Indianapolis Colts, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Hindsight is 20/20 of course but one team we looked long and hard at playing against last week was the Colts. They have a lame duck head coach in Jeff Saturday, they have a revolving door at quarterback and were so desperate they played Nick Foles last week against the Chargers. Foles was 17/29 for 143 yards and 3 INT’s. There is a very good chance this team has tanked it for the season in an effort to nab a QB early in the draft next season. The Colts have lost 5 straight games and have THE worst road differential in the NFL at minus -10.8PPG. The Giants on the other hand are fighting for their playoff lives and need to win this home game. New York has faced a tough gauntlet of games in recent weeks and steps way down in talent here. The Colts weakness defensively is their rush D which allows 122.2 rushing yards per game which is 20th in the NFL. The Giants average 144.9 rushing yards per game which is 6th best. This Colts offense ranks near the bottom of the league in nearly every key statistical category including total yards per game gained and scoring as they average just 16.5PPG. New York will bounce back here off that disappointing loss to the Vikings in which they outgained the Vikings by +92 yards but ended up losing late. Indianapolis lays down here in an ugly loss. |
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01-01-23 | Bears v. Lions -6 | Top | 10-41 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
#116 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Detroit Lions -6 over Chicago Bears, Sunday at 1 PM ET - The Lions are fighting for a playoff spot and we expect them to play well at home on Sunday. They are coming off an embarrassing effort last week getting trounced @ Carolina in their 2nd consecutive road game after winning @ NYJ a week earlier. This Detroit offense has been fantastic at home averaging 32 PPG and should have their way vs a Chicago defense that has allowed an average of 33 PPG over their last 8. The Lions have averaged 3.15 points per possession at home which is the best rate in the NFL. The Bears offense hit their stride from late October to late November but they’ve hit a wall over the last month. They have not topped 20 points in any of their last 4 games and they are averaging just 15 PPG during that stretch. They’re going to have to do a lot better than that here to stay in this game. Chicago has been outscored by 84 points since week 8 which is the worst point differential in the NFL over that time span. Chicago has nothing to play for and they’ve lost 8 straight so it looks like they’ve thrown in the towel. Especially over the last 4 weeks when their offense has gone in the tank. Detroit defense prior to last week’s loss @ Carolina had really started to play well holding 5 straight opponents below their scoring average. We like the Lions to win this one by at least a TD. We don’t think Chicago will be able to keep up. |
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12-31-22 | Heat v. Jazz UNDER 226 | Top | 126-123 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 29 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 226 Miami Heat @ Utah Jazz, 9:10 PM ET - We were on the Under in the Heat/Nuggets last night which unfortunately lost but we had the pace of play we needed to win that bet but couldn’t predict an insanely hot shooting night by the Nuggets. Denver shot 61% from Deep and 59% overall. Miami too outperformed season shooting expectations by making 40% of their 3-point attempts (34% on the year). Both teams are coming off games last night as the Jazz just totaled 251 total points with the Kings in Sacramento (both teams shot over 55% from the field, well above season averages). The Jazz have played three straight games against three of the faster paced teams in the NBA. Now they get a Miami team that is the 5th slowest. Those three teams the Jazz faced are also bad defensively, whereas the Heat rank 8th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.11-points per possession. Miami has faced three teams that have similar metrics to the Jazz in the Lakers, Wolves and Pacers and those three games finished with 210, 223 and 219 total points. When playing the 2nd night of a back-to-back the Jazz average less points than their season average. With both teams coming off games last night, our computers suggest a slower paced game here and an ‘average’ shooting night for both. |
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12-31-22 | TCU v. Michigan -7.5 | Top | 51-45 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
#276 ASA TOP PLAY ON Michigan -7.5 over TCU, Saturday at 4 PM ET - Michigan was in the College FB Playoff last year and got thumped 34-11 by UGA & they were down 27-3 at half. The players admitted last year they had a bit of a “just happy to be here” mentality as the Wolverines weren’t expected to be that good coming off a losing season the year prior. This year they are saying all the right things and completely focused on atoning for that loss and comfortable being where they are as they expected it. TCU is potentially this year’s Michigan so to speak. Their odds were 200 to 1 to win the National Championship prior to the season and the Frogs had a brand new coaching staff. No way they expected to be here and none of their coaches or players have ever been in this situation. Advantage Michigan in that regard. On top of that, TCU was a team that was behind or tied at half 5 times this season and trailed 5 times in the 4th quarter and had to make comebacks. They needed a number of breaks just to get here. Michigan, on the other hand, only trailed once in the 4th quarter this year (by 4 points early in the 4th vs Illinois) and they have the #1 PPG differential in college football with an average final score of 40-13. They are also in the top 4 in YPP and YPG differential and TCU ranks 13th and 24th in those 2 stats. The Wolverines 3rd ranked defense will be the best the Frogs have faced. In fact, TCU faced SEVEN defenses ranked outside the top 95 this season and the average ranking of the defenses they faced this year was 88th. On the other side, TCU’s defense is ranked 74th nationally and they are facing a balanced Michigan offense that runs and passes for 200+ yards and averages 40 PPG. We like Michigan’s experience here not to mention they are the better team. Lay it. |
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12-31-22 | Florida International v. North Texas UNDER 127.5 | Top | 57-72 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
#715/716 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 127.5 Points – FIU vs North Texas, Saturday at 4 PM ET - UNT is the slowest paced team in the nation (363 in adjusted tempo) and one of the better defensive teams in the country (25th in defensive efficiency). This team has not allowed any of their 13 opponents to reach 60 points. Now they are facing an FIU team who isn’t very efficient offensively (296th in adjusted efficiency) and really struggles to shoot it from deep making only 28.9% from beyond the arc (335th nationally). FIU has had some higher scoring games but they prefer to play fast and most of those games have come vs other high tempo teams. UNT will slow this game to a crawl as they do in every game and the slow paced team almost always wins out as far as tempo goes. Against other high tempo teams (rank in the top 50 in adjusted tempo) the Mean Green have kept it low scoring. Versus UMass (ranked 38th in adjusted tempo) the total points scored was 106 and vs Long Beach St (13th adjusted tempo) the total points scored was 115. On the other end while UNT is great defensively, not so much on offense. They rank outside the top 295 on eFG%, 3 point % and 2 point %. The Mean Green are averaging only 60 PPG on the season. UNT is coming off a loss vs Florida Atlantic in which they totaled only 96 points. FAU is averaging 77 PPG (51st nationally) and UNT held them to 50 points, by far their lowest mark of the season. North Texas will make this a grinder as they always do and this one stays Under. |
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12-31-22 | Western Kentucky v. Middle Tennessee -5.5 | Top | 60-65 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 51 m | Show |
#722 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Middle Tennessee State -5.5 over Western Kentucky, Saturday at 4 PM ET - We like this veteran MTSU squad at home off a loss on Thursday. They were beaten by Charlotte (10-3 record) on the road as a 2 point dog. At home this year they are 4-1 with all of their wins coming by at least 16 points. The Blue Raiders have one of the top home court advantages in CUSA as they’ve won 21 of their last 22 here at home. This is an MTSU team that finished with a 26-11 record last year and has 7 of their top 9 players back from that team. WKY is in a free fall right now losing 3 straight games after starting the season 8-1. Those 3 losses came vs teams ranked 257, 198, and 178 including an 11 point loss @ Louisville which currently has a 2-11 record with their only other win coming by 6 vs Florida A&M who is one of the worst teams in the country. Unlike MTSU who has most of their players back, Western KY returns only 2 of their top 8 players from last season. Western is 8-4 on the season but they’ve faced one of the easiest schedules in the country so far this season having not faced a single top 100 team and all but one of their wins have come vs teams ranked outside the top 200. They are 2-2 on the road but their 2 road wins were down to the wire vs Eastern KY and Austin Peay, both ranked outside the top 240. The Blue Raiders won both games last year (by 8 on the road and by 17 at home) and with basically the same team in tact, we like them to win and cover at home on Saturday. |
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12-30-22 | Heat v. Nuggets UNDER 224.5 | Top | 119-124 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 59 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UNDER 224.5 Miami Heat @ Denver Nuggets, 9:10 PM ET - The Heat are the 4th slowest paced team in the NBA at 97.3 possessions per game. The Nuggets are the 13th slowest at 98.7 possessions per game. That means there is a high probability of a very low possession game here and a slower pace. Denver is very efficient offensively ranking 3rd best in the league. Miami is not as they are the 3rd least efficient offense in the NBA. Defensively the Heat hld the advantage with the 7th best defensive efficiency rating while the Nuggets rank 25th. Denver has been much better defensively in their last 5 games though with the 6th best efficiency number allowed at 1.116-points per possession. The Heat are on a 6-2 Under streak, Denver has played Under in 6 of their last nine games. We expect those trends to continue for both teams here. |
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12-30-22 | NC State v. Clemson -1.5 | Top | 64-78 | Win | 100 | 13 h 27 m | Show |
#868 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Clemson -1.5 over NC State, Friday at 4 PM ET - Clemson is on a nice roll winning 6 of their last 7 games and they are a perfect 7-0 at home this season. They have won 27 of their last 33 home games and where this line sits at -2 they really just need to win this game. The Tigers are +14 PPG at home this season and they’ve topped 3 top 100 teams at home. 5 of their 7 game wins have come by at least 10 points and they are facing an NC State team that has played one true road game this season losing @ Miami FL by 7 points. With that 1 road loss, the Wolfpack have lost 8 of their 11 road games since the start of last season which includes a 5 point loss @ Clemson last season. Versus higher level competition this season, NC State has a 3-3 record vs top 100 teams while Clemson is 3-1 vs top 100 teams. The Tigers have one of the top shooting teams in the nation ranking 28th in eFG% and 13th in 3 point FG%. At home they are hitting nearly 45% of their 3’s this year which make them very tough to beat at Littlejohn Coliseum where they have a PPG differential of +14 this season. If the Tigers are attempting to salt this game away at the FT line late, we’re looking at a team that hits 77% of their FT attempts. We like Clemson to win at home and cover on Friday evening. |
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12-30-22 | Pittsburgh v. UCLA -7.5 | Top | 37-35 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 38 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UCLA -7.5 vs Pittsburgh, Friday 2 PM ET - Pittsburgh closed the season on a nice 4-0 SU streak, but it came against some weak competition. In fact, the Panther are 8-4 on the season but only 2 of those wins came against teams with above .500 records. Excluding Rhode Island, the teams Pitt beat this season have a combined 36-45 SU record. The Panthers have some solid defensive numbers, but again a soft ACC schedule has a lot to do with that. Pitt has not faced an offense like UCLA’s (3rd YPG) this season. In fact, the closest offense they faced this year would be North Carolina (17th total YPG) and they lost that game by 18-points. UCLA ranked 3rd in college football this season in yards per game gained at 510, 38th in passing YPG, 4th in rushing as they pounded 246RYPG to average 39.6PPG (10th). The Bruins offense put up a gaudy 6.8 yards per play which was 7th best in the nation. At first glance, it seems the Bruins defense struggled this season but let’s not forget the Pac 12 had 5 offenses that ranked 18th or higher in total YPG gained. The big player news for both teams clearly favors the Bruins as QB Thompson-Robinson, RB Charbonnet (4th in the nation in rushing yards) and WR Allen are all expected to play. Pittsburgh will be without QB Slovis, RB Abanikanda and defensive tackle Kancey, all three key players to this Panther roster. UCLA is looking to win 10-games for the first time since 2013 and should get a convincing win here against an overrated Pitt team. |
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12-29-22 | Rockets v. Mavs UNDER 225.5 | Top | 114-129 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 225.5 Houston Rockets @ Dallas Mavericks, 8:30 PM ET - We love the value in this number as these same two teams just met last week and the O/U posted by Vegas was 219.5. They combined for 218 total points on 161 field goal attempts. An average NBA game finishes with 227 total points scored on 176 field goal attempts. Neither are great shooting teams as the Mavs rank 18th in overall FG%, while the Rockets are 29th. These two teams also prefer to play slower as the Rockets rank 17th in pace of play at 99.1 possessions per game. The Mavericks are slower yet ranking as the second slowest team in the league ahead of only the Cavaliers. In the other meeting this season between these two teams they combined for 193 points on this court. The Under is 6-1 the last seven times these two teams have met, including 4 straight. Based on our calculations this game will finish with 219 total points. |
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12-29-22 | Oklahoma v. Florida State -9.5 | Top | 32-35 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 32 m | Show |
#256 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Florida State -9.5 over Oklahoma, Thursday at 5:30 PM ET - We know FSU is extremely happy to be in this bowl game having not played in the post-season since the 2019 season and not won a bowl game since the 2017 season. This game is in Orlando as well which will give FSU a solid home field (crowd) advantage. The Noles have some serious momentum winning 5 straight to end the season and their star QB Travis has stated he will be back next season. FSU was among the best teams in the country this season and their +2.2 YPP differential and +170 YPG differential was very impressive. It could be argued they are better than their 9-3 record as they outplayed 2 of their opponents in tight losses outgaining Clemson by 90 yards (lost by 6) and NC State by 80 yards (lost by 2). The Noles haven’t lost a game since mid October. Oklahoma had a very disappointing season. They were expected to be the top team in the Big 12 and contend for a spot in the Final 4. None of that came close to happening and they finished the regular season with a 6-6 record. While FSU is motivated in this game, we’re not so sure the Sooners will bring their “A” game here. This program is used to being in much bigger bowl games and this is a big step down for them. They will have to play this game without their All American RB Gray (1400 yards rushing) and both starting OT’s have left the program. When they faced a bowl team this year, OU was 1-4-1 ATS and outgained by 40 YPG. When they played against the top 3 teams in the Big 12 (only 3 teams rated in final playoff rankings), they lost all 3 by an average score of 48-19 and they were outgained by a combined 660 yards in those losses. We like FSU by double digits. |
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12-28-22 | Boise State v. Nevada UNDER 131 | Top | 72-74 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 28 m | Show |
#651/652 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 131 Points – Boise State vs Nevada, Wednesday at 10 PM ET - Two top notch defensive teams facing off here and we anticipate a low scoring game. Boise ranks 11th nationally allowing just 58 PPG while Nevada ranks 70th giving up just 63 PPG. Boise’s defense has allowed less than 60 points in 8 of their last 11 games. Both rank in the top 25 nationally in FG% allowed with Boise giving up 37.3% and Nevada allowing 38.5% from the field. Both teams are slower paced ranking outside the top 225 in adjusted tempo and both defenses really make opposing offenses work for shots with Boise allowing a shot every 17.6 seconds (228th) and Nevada allowing a shot every 18.7 seconds (357th). Neither team shoots the ball very well with each right around 43% on the season ranking them 255th. Both are solid defensive rebounding teams and both rank outside the top 220 in offensive rebounding so we don’t expect many 2nd chances. These teams have combined for a 16-8 Under record this season. First conference game for both teams so we expect the defensive intensity to ramp up on Wednesday night. Under is the play. |
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12-28-22 | Bucks v. Bulls UNDER 231.5 | Top | 113-119 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 19 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 231.5 Milwaukee Bucks @ Chicago Bulls, 8 PM ET - We are betting the value of the number in this game and that’s Under the total. These two teams met in late November and the O/U on that game was 224. They scored 231 points in that game but both teams shot above their season averages. In fact, the last ten meetings have all finished with 231 or less points with the Under cashing 8 of ten times. Milwaukee holds the 6th best defensive efficiency rating at 1.104-points per possession. They are coming off a horrible defensive showing last time out when they allowed 139 points to the Celtics. Expect a very focused effort here off that embarrassing outing. The Bulls are in a similar situation as they just gave up 133 to the Rockets. Chicago is slightly below the league average in DEFF but they are slightly better defensively at home. When the Bucks have played on the road this season those games have averaged 219 total points. The Bulls games at home are averaging 226.1PPG. Combined these two teams have road/home records of 10-20-1 to the Under. This one stays Under the number. |
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12-28-22 | Kansas +3 v. Arkansas | Top | 53-55 | Win | 100 | 90 h 24 m | Show |
#247 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Kansas +3 over Arkansas, Wednesday at 5:30 PM ET - Love this spot for KU. First of all, they are thrilled to be here in the Liberty Bowl having not played in a bowl game since 2008. Arkansas we’re not so sure. We take that back, we’re actually pretty positive they aren’t overly excited about this bowl game. That’s because they finished 9-4 last year, won their January 1st bowl vs Penn State, and had very high aspirations coming into this season. A 6-6 season and a bid to the Liberty Bowl is not what they expected. The Razors have had as many defections as any team in college football which speaks to their probable lack of excitement for this game. All together, players who started a combined 95 games — 50 on offense and 45 on defense — for the Razorbacks will not play against Kansas. That is more than one-third of their total starts on both sides of the ball. The Razorbacks who won’t play against Kansas accounted for 3,410 offensive snaps (34.3% of all snaps), 2,583 defensive snaps (26.0%) and 787 special teams snaps (19.3%) according to Pro Football Focus. Not only is the motivation factor heavily in favor of the Jayhawks, their stats for the season were simply better as well. KU had a +1.2 YPP differential while Arkansas was -0.2 and believe it or not, according to the Sagarin ratings, Kansas actually played the tougher strength of schedule (4th vs 23rd). Jayhawk starting QB Daniels missed 5 games this season and they were 1-4 in those games. In the games where he started and played to the end, KU was 5-2. He’s back and healthy for this one which should be a big boost to the offense and they are facing an Arkansas defense that finished the season ranked 123rd nationally. Kansas had their struggles on defense as well, however with Arkansas missing a multitude of weapons, including 3 starting WR’s and TE, we’re not sure they can take complete advantage in this one. Jayhawk HC Leipold was an absolute fantastic post-season coach at the D3 level leading UW Whitewater to a ridiculous 6 National Championships. When he took over a downtrodden Buffalo program, he led them to 3 bowls (2-1 record) winning his last 2 by a combined score of 48-19. He’ll have this team more than ready to go on Wednesday. We like Kansas to win this game outright and getting +3 is a bonus cushion. |
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12-27-22 | Oklahoma State v. Wisconsin UNDER 43 | Top | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 72 h 36 m | Show |
#243/244 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 43 Points – Oklahoma State vs Wisconsin, Tuesday at 10:15 PM ET - Lots of uncertainty in this game with tons of opt outs and transfer portal situations for each team. We do know this, neither starting QB will take the field and their back ups aren’t great. Wisconsin will most likely split time between senior Chase Wolf who has thrown 31 career passes and freshman Myles Burkett who played briefly in 2 games this season attempting 5 total passes. The Badgers will rely heavily on their running game, as per usual, and their top RB Allen is still banged up. Oklahoma State will go with either Gunnar Gundy or Garret Rangel who combined to complete barely 50% of their passes with more interceptions than TD’s this season when in relief of starter Spencer Sanders who is out here. When Gundy was in the game vs Big 12 opponents OSU ran 54 total plays for 177 yards (3.2 YPP) and scored 10 points. Rangel started and finished 2 Big 12 games and OSU averaged 17.5 PPG (both losses) in those 2 games vs Kansas & WVU who both rank outside the top 100 in total defense. Now they are facing a Wisconsin team that is always good defensively and will be playing with a little extra motivation as their DC Jim Leonhard will be coaching his final game for the Badgers. OSU scored 19 points or less in 4 of their last 5 games and will struggle vs a Wisconsin defense ranked 13th nationally. The Badgers put up 16 points or fewer in each of their last 3 games and that was with starting QB Mertz in the line up. The Cowboy defense struggled early but played better down the stretch leading to 5 straight unders to close out the regular season. Their overall numbers aren’t great defensively, however they were facing high powered Big 12 attacks week in and week out and this Wisconsin team is nowhere near that especially at the QB position. We expect both offenses to struggle and we’ll take the Under. |
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12-27-22 | Hawks -1.5 v. Pacers | Top | 114-129 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
ASA play on: Atlanta Hawks -1.5 vs. Indiana Pacers, 7:40PM ET The Pacers were essentially blown out in New Orleans last night as they trailed big early on and were never competitive. Tonight they return home to face a Hawks team that is finally getting healthy. The Hawks had their starting five back for their game against the Pistons on Dec 23rd and won 130-105. Atlanta comes into this game fresh and with a huge match up advantage over the Pacers. Last season the Hawks won (and covered) all 4 meetings with the Pacers including a pair of wins on this court. Atlanta should get plenty of second-chance opportunities in this game with their 10th best offensive rebounding unit going up against the Pacers 28th ranked defensive rebounding. Indiana also relies heavily on their 3-points shooting (11th) but the Hawks hold opponents to the 4th lowest 3-point percentage in the NBA. In their last five games the Hawks have a +/- of +6.4PPG. The Pacers have a negative differential of minus -4.2PPG in that same stretch. Take the visiting Hawks in this one. |
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12-26-22 | Chargers -4 v. Colts | Top | 20-3 | Win | 100 | 46 h 35 m | Show |
#481 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* LA Chargers -4 over Indianapolis Colts, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - Indianapolis has to be mentally shot coming into this game. After blowing their 33 point lead last week @ Minnesota (Led 33-0 at half and LOST) they are officially out of the playoff race. They also lost RB Taylor for the season in that game and will not now be starting Nick Foles at QB, their 3rd different starter this season. He has not taken a snap in a game this season. Not much to play for here and we wouldn’t expect a high level effort here from a team that has massively underachieved this season. Since beating Las Vegas in interim head coach Jeff Saturday’s debut, the Colts have lost 4 straight getting outgained in each game. Their defense has allowed 117 points in the last 3 games (39 PPG) and the Indy offense had been held under 20 points in 6 of their last 8 games. Even their offensive “breakout” last week vs the worst defense in the NFL (Minnesota) was aided by 2 non offensive TD’s so the offense really only scored 17 points. The Colts have scored a touchdown on 12.7% of their drives, tied with the Broncos for the lowest rate in the league. The Chargers are starting to play well winning 3 of their last 4 games. They are on the verge of clinching a playoff spot and a win here, plus a few other things that need to happen, could take care of that. The last 2 weeks LA has topped Miami & Tennessee outgaining those 2 by a combined 400 yards. The Chargers are getting healthy on both sides of the ball and we have a HUGE edge at QB here with Herbert vs Foles. Lay it. |
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12-25-22 | Bucks v. Celtics UNDER 225 | Top | 118-139 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 8 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 225 Milwaukee Bucks @ Boston Celtics, Sunday 5:00 pm ET - This is a rematch of last year's playoff series which the Celtics won in 7 games. All seven of those games finished with 224 or less points. The four games in that series where the Celtics were the host averaged 198 total points. Neither team plays fast as they both average around 99 possessions per game which is about league average. The Bucks are the 3rd best defensive efficiency team in the NBA allowing 1.095-points per possession. The Celtics own the 8th best defensive efficiency rating at 1.111PPP. The Under has cashed in 5 of the last seven meetings between these two rivals. |
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12-25-22 | Broncos -2.5 v. Rams | Top | 14-51 | Loss | -120 | 18 h 5 m | Show |
#477 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Denver Broncos -3 over LA Rams, Sunday at 4 PM ET - Denver has started playing much better in recent weeks covering 3 straight. Their offense has scored 52 points the last 2 weeks combined which is more than they put up the previous 4 weeks combined. In their last 3 games they led the entire way @ Baltimore before a Raven’s FG with under 1 minute remaining gave them a 1 point win, they lost by 6 at home vs KC and had the ball in Chiefs territory late with a chance to win, and then last week they beat Arizona 24-15. Since week 10, this Denver offense has scored TD’s on 80% of their red zone drives which is 1st in the NFL. Their defense remains very good ranking 4th in both total defense and YPP allowed. While the Bronco’s offense is starting to peak, LA’s offense continues to stink. They rank dead last in the NFL in total offense, YPP, and 31st in scoring at 16 PPG. Last week vs Green Bay the Rams tallied 156 TOTAL yards on 3.6 YPP and put up 12 points. QB Baker Mayfield was terrible completing just 12 total pass for barely 100 yards. A week earlier LA had 3 points vs a bad Raider defense with less than 4:00 minutes remaining in the game before scoring 2 late TD’s for 17 total points. Now they face one of the top defenses in the NFL and we just don’t see much offense for LA. Mayfield has been bad all year completing under 60% of his passes and ranking right at the bottom of the league in QBR. LA has very little to NO home field advantage and with this game being on Christmas Day we suspect that it will be even less. Russell Wilson is back under center and while he’s had a disappointing season, his 2 highest QBR ratings were his last 2 games so he’s trending up along with the Denver offense. We like Denver to win this game by more than a FG. |
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12-24-22 | Commanders v. 49ers UNDER 37.5 | Top | 20-37 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 16 m | Show |
#469/470 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 37.5 Points – Washington Commanders vs San Francisco 49ers, Saturday at 4 PM ET - Defenses should control this one with 2 of the top stop units in the NFL facing off. San Francisco ranks #1 in total defense while Washington ranks 3rd in that category. They are both in the top 10 in YPP allowed and PPG allowed. These 2 defenses have been even more proficient as of late with SF ranking 1st in the NFL since week 11 allowing opponents just 0.87 points per drive and Washington ranking 2nd in that stat allowing only 1.27 points per drive. The Commanders have not allowed more than 21 points in any of their last 10 games and SF has held 7 straight opponents to 17 points or fewer. Offensively Washington struggles to say the least. The rank 26th in YPP gained and 25th in scoring at 18.9 PPG. That’s despite playing the 30th toughest defensive schedule this season. In 5 of their last 6 games the Commanders have faced defenses ranked 26th, 27th (twice), 31st, and 32nd and in those 5 games they’ve averaged 18 PPG. Now they face the best defense in the NFL and we expect very little offensive. SF clinched the NFC West with their win last week but only scored 21 points vs a Seattle defense that ranks 29th overall. Washington now has 3 weeks of film on rookie QB Purdy who had only 217 yards passing last week. Niner head coach Shanahan also hinted at possibly giving some of his offensive skill players a rest at some point to make sure they are ready for the playoffs. We know Deebo Samuel is out for this one. Lastly we have 2 slow paced teams in this game with Washington 25th in adjusted tempo and San Fran 31st. We’re on the Under in this game. |
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12-24-22 | Lions v. Panthers +2.5 | Top | 23-37 | Win | 100 | 17 h 28 m | Show |
#458 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Carolina Panthers +2.5 over Detroit Lions, Saturday at 1 PM ET - Detroit is a bit overvalued right now after winning 6 of the last 7 and covering 7 straight. Now they are favored on the road vs a team that, like them, is still battling for a playoff spot. In fact, if Carolina wins out, they are in the playoffs so still a ton to play for. Detroit hasn’t been a road favorite yet this season and in their last 20 road games they’ve been favored once and lost that game outright. Last week they won by 3 vs the Jets but that took a late 51 yard TD. Historically this Detroit team has been horrendous as a road favorite with a spread record of 22-40 ATS in that role since 1980. Since firing HC Matt Rhule, Carolina has actually played quite well. Prior to last week’s loss they had won 3 of their previous 4 games. The Panthers are coming off a loss as a home favorite vs Pittsburgh while Detroit is coming off a road dog upset win over NY Jets which sets this up very nicely for the home team. Carolina is a bit undervalued right now getting points at home despite covering 6 of their last 8 games. This line looks to easy to take the Lions as we expect many will. We’ll take the home dog as teams getting points at home are 49-37 ATS on the year with underdogs in general covering almost 55% of the time in 2022. Tough spot for Detroit in their 2nd straight on the road after an upset win last week. |
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12-23-22 | Pacers v. Heat -6 | Top | 111-108 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Miami Heat -6 vs. Indiana Pacers, 8:10 PM ET - There is some value in this number as the Pacers were just +9.5 points at Boston and +8 at Cleveland. In fact, these two teams played on Dec. 12th in Indy and the Heat were favored by -3.5-points there which means this line should be higher than it is. We also like the situation with the Pacers off a big upset win in Boston, while the Heat are off an upset home loss to the Bulls. Miami had won 4 straight games and seemed to be finding their groove which has been missing for much of the season early on. Both teams are 16-16 SU on the season, but we feel the Heat can contend in the East, but the Pacers cannot. Miami has a clear advantage defensively with the 6th best defensive efficiency rating in the NBA compared to the Pacers 19th rank. Indiana is better overall in offensive efficiency this season but in their last five games the Pacers OEFF is 1.096 which ranks 26th in the NBA. Indiana is just 1-5 ATS their last six when coming off a win. Since the start of last season, the Heat are 29-20 ATS when coming off a loss. We will acknowledge the Heat have been horrible ATS at home this season with a 3-12-1 record but that means a correction is in order. |
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12-23-22 | Clippers v. 76ers -3 | Top | 114-119 | Win | 100 | 21 h 17 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Philadelphia 76ers -3 vs LA Clippers, 7:10 PM ET - The Sixers are playing at another level right now with 6 straight wins to improve to 18-12 on the season. At home they are 13-5 SU with an average +/- of plus +6.8PPG which ranks 9th best. The Clippers are also playing well and are starting to get healthy but this will be their first road game since Dec 10th. LA is 8-7 SU on the road with a negative differential of minus -0.6PPG. The Clippers have a +9PPG average Margin of Victory in their last five games (all at home) but the 76ers are better yet at +14.6PPG in their last five. Philly has the 9th best offensive efficiency rating in the league's last 5-game span compared to the Clippers who rank 28th. Los Angeles has the best overall DEFF ratings in the last five games but the 76ers are 2nd. Philadelphia has covered 10 of the last thirteen and will get another win and cover here. |
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12-23-22 | Wake Forest v. Missouri OVER 58.5 | Top | 27-17 | Loss | -110 | 46 h 45 m | Show |
#231/232 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 58.5 Points – Wake Forest vs Missouri, Friday at 6:30 PM ET - This game is being played in Tampa and the weather looks decent with temps in the low 50’s at kickoff and light winds. Wake’s offense is easily the strength of their team. The average 37 PPG and they’ve been held under 30 points only twice this season vs NC State & Louisville. Those are 2 top 35 defenses and Wake moved the ball well on both (400+ yards in both games) but had a ridiculous 11 turnovers in those 2 games alone which took away MANY scoring chances. Even with that the Deacs still scored 21 points in both of those games. They are facing a solid Mizzou defense that ranks near those 2 stop units, however the Tigers will be depleted on that side of the ball. Both starting DE’s who lead the team in sacks will not play in this game and they are very thin at safety with a few not playing. The Tigers had solid defensive numbers but when they played high potent teams they struggled at times and the teams they slowed down were the lower tier offensive teams in the SEC (Vandy, Auburn, Kentucky). Wake’s defense was not good. They rank 94th overall, 95th in scoring defense, and 116th vs the pass. They’ve allowed at least 30 points in 5 straight games and 7 of their 11 games vs FBS opponents this season. Missouri’s QB Cook is a duel threat (2500 yards passing and 550 rushing) and WF has struggled with those type of signal callers. Clemson, Louisville, Syracuse, Liberty, and UNC all have duel threat QB’s and they torched WF for an average of 41 PPG. The Deacons had only 3 totals all season set below 60 and 2 of those went well Over the total and the one that went under was close (under by 3 points) and should have gone Over based on the total yardage. We confident that WF will score in this game and Mizzou will be able to keep up vs a poor defense. Over. |
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12-22-22 | Spurs v. Pelicans -7.5 | Top | 117-126 | Win | 100 | 23 h 2 m | Show |
ASA NBA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans -7.5 vs San Antonio Spurs, 8:10 PM ET - The Pelicans have hit a rough patch of games with 4 straight losses but let’s consider who those L’s came against. They lost a pair of games to a hot Jazz team, lost in Phoenix and home to the Bucks. Off that home loss we like them to explode with a big win today against the Spurs. San Antonio got a road win last time out against the Rockets but now steps up in class to face the Pelicans. New Orleans has the 8th best scoring differential at home this season of +7.8PPG and a 12-4 SU record. The Spurs have a respectable 5-8 SU road record but they are getting beat by an average of -8.9PPG which is the 3rd highest average in the NBA. San Antonio is one of, if not the worst defense team in the NBA ranking 30th in points allowed per game, FG% defense and 3-point percentage D. They are also mid-20’s in most offensive categories. The Pelicans are 7th in DEFF and 5th in OEFF and the far superior team in this setting and playing with a chip on their shoulders. New Orleans has faced the Spurs twice this season in San Antonio and was favored by -5.5 and -7.5 points in those two games. Even without Zion Williamson this is a bargain. |
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12-22-22 | Air Force v. Baylor OVER 43 | Top | 30-15 | Win | 100 | 23 h 1 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* - #227/228 OVER 43 Air Force vs. Baylor, Thursday 7:30 PM ET - We are betting Over on this game and expect both teams to get into the 20’s. The number itself stood out to us immediately when we looked at past results for both teams and the lines that were posted on those contests. For instance, Air Force played San Diego State the last game of the season and the O/U was set at 43. San Diego State isn’t on the same planet offensively as Baylor as the Aztecs were 109th in scoring (21PPG), 116th in total YPG and 119th in passing. AF also played Colorado State at the end of the season, who is worse than SDST offensively and that O/U was also 43. The Bears averaged just under 34PPG with an offense that ranked 37th in YPG gained, 61st in passing and 33rd in rushing. Baylor played in one game this season that had a Total below 52 and that was against Iowa State. ISU’s defense is significantly better than an overrated Falcons defense. Air Force is 1st in the nation defensively in YPG allowed 1st against the pass, 8th versus the run and allowed just 13.3PPG. BUT the vast majority of the teams they’ve faced have been horrible on offense making the Falcons defensive statistics very misleading. Baylor wasn't as good defensively this season (recently fired D-coordinator) after allowing 26.6PPG on the season and being near average in most defensive categories. The Bears allowed 29 plus points in the last four games of the season. |
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12-22-22 | Seattle University v. Utah State -9.5 | Top | 56-84 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
#864 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Utah State -9.5 over Seattle, Thursday at 5:30 PM ET - This game is on a neutral site in Hawaii. USU was 9-0 on the season heading into their home game on Monday night vs Weber State. We’re guessing they were looking ahead to this trip to Hawaii as they lost by 3 points at home as a 17 point favorite. Utah State blew an 18 point lead in that game and you can bet they’ll be ready for a bounce back performance here. Prior to that loss the Aggies had been fantastic this season with 8 of their 9 wins coming by double digits including 6 vs top 150 teams. They play fast and are a tough team to keep up with offensively averaging 87 PPG while ranking #1 in the nation in 3 point percentage (43%). The way to beat this USU team is to slow the game down and make them play long possessions in the half court. That won’t happen here as Seattle likes to play fast as well which plays right into Utah State’s hands. Seattle is 8-2 but they’ve played the much easier schedule facing only 2 teams all season ranked inside the top 150. USU will be by far the best team Seattle has played this season. The only other top 100 team they’ve faced was Washington who beat the Redhawks by double digits. USU should get to the line a lot here as well as Seattle fouls a lot with over 23% of their opponents points coming from the stripe (25th most nationally). Not great as USU hits 76% of their FT’s as a team. We’re going to get an angry Utah State team here off a loss and we expect an easy win. |
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12-21-22 | South Alabama v. Western Kentucky OVER 57 | Top | 23-44 | Win | 100 | 24 h 9 m | Show |
#225/226 ASA TOP PLAY ON Over 57 Points – Western Kentucky vs South Alabama, Wed at 9 PM ET - This game is being played in the Louisiana Super Dome so we’re getting perfect conditions for scoring. WKU has one of the most prolific offenses in the nation ranking 10th in total offense and 2nd in passing offense while averaging 36 PPG. QB Austin Reed entered the transfer portal but after only a few days decided to come back to the Hilltoppers so he will play in this game. He’s thrown for over 4,000 yards with 36 TD’s this season. USA’s defense is rated very highly (11th nationally) but they’ve played an extremely easy slate of offenses this season. The average ranking of the offenses they faced this season was 82nd and they faced 5 offense ranked outside the top 100. The 2 top tier offenses South Alabama faced were UCLA and Georgia Southern who scored 32 and 31 points respectively. As far as pass offenses go, the Jags only faced 1 ranked inside the top 30 and now they take on the 2nd best passing offense in the nation. South Alabama doesn’t get much pub for their offense but they were very good. They averaged 32 PPG on the season and they scored at least 27 points in every game but 2 this year. They only defense that really slowed them down was Troy who was ranked as a top 10 stop unit. WKU ranks 70th in total defense and 5 of their last 9 opponents scored at least 30 points vs this defense. South Alabama is very balanced on offense and should have plenty of success in this game. Both teams are more than capable of getting to 30+ points here and we’ll grab the Over. |
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12-21-22 | Magic v. Rockets UNDER 224 | Top | 116-110 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 224 Orlando Magic at Houston Rockets, 8:10 PM ET - According to our computer this is a very generous number by the oddsmakers. Our simulators are projecting 218 total points being scored here. When it comes to pace of play these two teams prefer a slower tempo. The Magic are the 9th slowest paced team in the NBA, the Rockets are the 12th slowest. Neither is efficient in their scoring either as the Magic average 1.108 points per every possession (25th in OEFF) while the Rockets average 1.094PPP (26th OEFF). Neither team shoots it well as the Magic rank 17th in FG% and 21st in 3-point shooting. The Rockets offense is worse shooting 44.2% as a team (30th) and 32.7% from beyond the arc which ranks 28th. Both defenses are average or slightly below. Houston has scored or allowed 108 or less points in eight straight games. Orlando has allowed 109 or less in 7 of their last ten regulations. We like this game UNDER the total |
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12-21-22 | Clemson v. Georgia Tech +1.5 | Top | 79-66 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
#714 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Georgia Tech +1.5 over Clemson, Wednesday at 7:30 PM ET - Wrong team favored here according to our power ratings. Clemson had the better record at 9-3 compared to GT at 7-4 but they’ve played the easier strength of schedule. The Tigers have played 4 games away from home (true away + neutral) and they’ve won only 1 of those games vs Loyola Chicago on a neutral site. In their one true road game they lost @ South Carolina who currently sits with at 5-6 record. The Tigers only win away from home was by 8 points on a neutral site vs a California team that is currently 0-12. Tech is 6-0 at home and their 4 losses are all vs teams ranked in the top 50, all higher than this Clemson team. The Tigers scores 35.5% of their points from 3 (77th nationally) and they are facing the best 3 point defense they’ve seen this season with Tech allowing just 27% from deep (13th in the nation). Tech’s offense has been much better at home averaging 83 PPG and making 49% of their shots. Clemson is averaging just 58 PPG in their road games while making just 38% of their shots. The home team has won 7 of the last 9 outright in this ACC series and we like the home dog to win outright here. |
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12-20-22 | Bulls v. Heat UNDER 223.5 | Top | 113-103 | Win | 100 | 9 h 34 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 223.5 Chicago Bulls at Miami Heat, 7:40 PM ET - The Bulls should step up defensively tonight after allowing an embarrassing 150-points in their last game to the Timberwolves. Minnesota shot a ridiculous 66% overall, 53% from Deep which are clearly both aberrations. Miami is coming off a few games against teams that like to play fast or are high scoring yet they’ve stayed below 219 total points in 4 straight. The Heat are one of the slowest paced teams in the NBA at 25th in possessions per game. The Bulls try to play faster, ranking 10th. The Bulls rank 22nd in offensive efficiency at 1.143-points per possession, the Heat are 27th at 1.093PPP. Defensively both rank in the top half of the league in efficiency with the Heat checking in at 6th. The Bulls are 15th. This is the highest number posted on this series in the last 10 meetings. In the only other meeting this season the Over-Under number was 217. We expect the defenses to dominate tonight and a game in the 216 range. |
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12-20-22 | Eastern Michigan +4 v. San Jose State | Top | 41-27 | Win | 100 | 33 h 17 m | Show |
#221 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Eastern Michigan +4 over San Jose State, Tuesday at 3:30 PM ET - Our power ratings have SJSU as a 1 point favorite on a neutral site so we feel the value is with EMU in this game. The Spartans have been trending down and overvalued for over a month now. They’ve lost 6 straight ATS by an average of more than 10 PPG. They were outgained by 4 of their last 6 opponents winning the stat sheet vs Nevada (2-10 record) and Hawaii (3-10 record) only. Their only wins since early September were vs Hawaii, Colorado St, and Nevada three teams who have a combined 8-29 record. EMU, on the other hand, is playing their best ball of the season right now winning 6 of their last 8 games with a spread record of 5-1-1 their last 7. The offense hit their stride down the stretch scoring 30+ points in three crucial games to end the season. This is also a team that beat Arizona State on the road earlier in the year and outgained the Sun Devils by 116 yards, prompting ASU officials to fire head coach Herm Edwards immediately after the game. EMU head coach Chris Creighton has been fantastic as an underdog going 3-1 ATS in bowl games and 35-10 ATS his last 45 getting points. The Eagles are the much more balanced offense rushing for 144 YPG and passing for 218 YPG. SJSU can’t run the ball averaging only 92 YPG (125th nationally) so they can be one dimensional on offense not great when your offensive line ranks 114th in sacks allowed per game. EMU is making this out to be a huge game for their program. They are looking to win their first bowl game since 1987. This game is being played in Boise which is in the same conference as San Jose State so we can’t imagine this is a rewarding bowl for that program. Take the points in this one. |
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12-19-22 | Texas-Arlington v. San Francisco UNDER 137.5 | Top | 68-63 | Win | 100 | 16 h 36 m | Show |
#827/828 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 137.5 Points – UT Arlington vs San Francisco, Monday at 10 PM ET - Defenses are the strengths of both of these teams. Both teams have stronger defensive efficiency numbers and eFG% allowed numbers when compared to their offenses. The shooting numbers for these two are not pretty. UTA ranks 335th in adjusted offensive efficiency, 332nd in FG% and 348th in 3 point FG%. USF ranks 234th in FG% and 247th in 3 point FG%. We don’t expect many 3 pointers made in this one as both defenses rank in the top 60 at defending the arc while both offenses are not good from deep as we mentioned. San Francisco prefers to play up tempo but UT Arlington will slow this game down (262nd in adjusted tempo) which gives them the best chance to stay close. The Dons have played a number of fast paced teams this season which has given a boost to their scoring numbers. However, in the 5 games they’ve played this season vs teams that rank outside the top 200 in adjusted tempo, they’ve topped 130 points only one time. UT Arlington has played 8 games this season vs Division 1 teams and only twice have they scored more than this posted total (currently 137.5) and those games only reached 143 and 144. Those 8 games involving UTA have averaged just 122 total points per game. The Mavericks slow this one down and the defenses take control. Under is the play. |
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12-19-22 | Rams +7 v. Packers | Top | 12-24 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 34 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* LA Rams +7 vs Green Bay Packers, 8:20 PM ET - These two teams had much higher aspirations this season and both have clearly fallen short. There isn’t a big difference between these two teams so we have to side with the Dog and the points here. The Rams are higher rated than the Packers when it comes to defensive DVOA rankings #14 whereas the Packers are 23rd. Green Bay holds the advantage offensively ranking 11th in DVOA while the Rams are 26th. The Rams have a negative differential of minus -6PPG which is one of the worst numbers in the NBA but the Packers aren’t much better at minus -3PPG which is 25th in the league. Green Bay has historically dominated in Lambeau but this season they have a negative differential of minus -0.8PPG. The Packers have already lost to the Titans and Jets at home and narrowly beat the Patriots. The Rams have two bad road losses on their resume to the 49ers and Chiefs and the Packers aren’t on that level. The other road games for the Rams are a 7-point loss at New Orleans, lost by 3 at Tampa and beat the Cardinals. Baker Mayfield had a week to learn more of the Rams system and should be better prepared for this road contest. Grab the points. |
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12-19-22 | Oilers -117 v. Predators | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -117 | 7 h 4 m | Show |
#17 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Edmonton Oilers -120 over Nashville Predators, Monday at 8 PM ET - The Predators have lost 6 straight games and been outscored 13 to 7 in their two games against the Oilers this season. Nashville started this season 2-0 but has lost 17 of 27 games since then. The Predators have scored an average of only 1.5 goals per game in their current 6-game losing streak and now face one of the most dangerous teams in the league in terms of offensive production. This is a great spot to back Edmonton as they are off B2B losses and have gone 3-1 this season when entering a game on a losing streak. Unlike Nashville, the Oilers have not been prone to long losing streaks this season. Edmonton has scored an average of 4 goals per game last dozen games and will be too much for this struggling Nashville team. The Predators power play converting only 14% of the time and the Oilers are converting 32% of their power play opportunities. We have the better special teams play here, the stronger overall team, the more potent offense, and in terms of streaks we are able to fade a team that is slumping bad. Also, because the Oilers are on the road for this one we get a great price. Lay the very reasonable money line price with the road favorite here |
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12-18-22 | Bengals v. Bucs UNDER 45 | Top | 34-23 | Loss | -110 | 43 h 1 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 45 Cincinnati Bengals at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 4:25 PM ET - The Cris opener on this game was 41.5 which was quickly bet up to the current number of 45. We will grab the added value and play Under here. NFL games this season have averaged 44 total points per game and we can’t see this game being ‘average’. The Bucs offense has been dreadful to say the least this season averaging just 5.4 Yards Per Play and 17.2PPG (28th). On average it takes the Bucks 19.7 yards gained to score 1-points and that’s barely better than the Colts and Broncos. It won’t get any easier today against a Bengals defense allowing just 5.5 Yards Per Play, 16.2 Yards Per Point (11th) and 5.4 Yards Per Play. Cincinnati is slightly over-rated offensively as a result of playing some soft defenses. In 8 of their last ten games, they have faced defenses ranked 15th or worse in the league in overall defensive DVOA. The one comparable defense to Tampa’s the Bengals has faced this season is the Ravens and they managed just 17 points in that game. The Bucs own the 11th best DVOA defense, give up just 320YPG, are 6th versus the pass and 9th in points allowed per game. Tampa will want to play fast, but the Bengals prefer to play slow. The Bengals are 13-4-1 Under in their last 18 games overall. Tampa Bay is on an 11-2 Under streak when coming off a loss. |
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12-18-22 | Magic v. Celtics -9.5 | Top | 95-92 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 43 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -9.5 vs Orlando Magic, 3 PM ET - The Celtics were not in a good situation on Friday night when they hosted the Magic and lost outright as a 13-point favorite. They had just come off a big 6-game road trip and a tough OT win over the Lakers. Now we get a much better line with the Celtics in immediate revenge. Boston has the best overall point differential in the NBA and 3rd best average scoring margin when at home of +10.2PPG. They are 11-3 SU at home and 4-1 SU home off a loss. Overall the Celtics are 7-5-1 ATS when coming off a loss. Orlando is just 2-11 SU away from home this season with a negative differential of minus -7.6PPG which is the 5th worst average in the NBA. Boston will settle in at home today and get a blowout win. |
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12-18-22 | Detroit v. Eastern Michigan OVER 157 | Top | 77-79 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
#739/740 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 157 Points – Detroit vs Eastern Michigan, Sunday at 3 PM ET - Two of the worst defenses in college hoops taking the court today in this game and we look for a high scoring affair. EMU’s defense ranks 354th in adjusted defensive efficiency and 359th in eFG% defense (out of 362). They are allowing 82 PPG which ranks them 357th in scoring defense. They’ve allowed at least 80 points in 6 of their 10 games vs Division 1 competition. The only 4 games in which they did not allow at least 80 points were all vs teams ranked outside the top 240 in offensive efficiency. Detroit ranks 60th in offensive efficiency and they are averaging 75 PPG on the season and that’s vs not a single team ranked outside the top 250 in defensive efficiency. This EMU defense will be by far the worst defense the Titans have faced this season and we expect them to get to at least 80 points. The EMU offense is also averaging 75 PPG and they’ve faced only 1 defense ranked outside the top 300 in defensive efficiency (Oakland) and the 2 teams totaled 182 points in that game. Eastern Michigan ranks 54th in adjusted tempo and Detroit ranks 173rd so neither mind playing fast. Detroit loves to shoot the 3 and they do it well hitting almost 40% and they are facing an EMU defense that ranks 225th defending the arc. Defensively Detroit allows almost 40% from deep ranking 353rd so we look for both teams to have success from beyond the arc. Both teams shoot over 72% from the foul line as well which should boost the scoring numbers here. This will be a fast paced, high scoring game and we’ll take the Over. |
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12-17-22 | Boise State -10.5 v. North Texas | Top | 35-32 | Loss | -108 | 25 h 56 m | Show |
#217 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Boise State -10.5 over North Texas, Saturday at 9:15 PM ET - This game is in Frisco, TX giving UNT a slight home field advantage but we still like Boise to roll. The North Texas program is in a bit of chaos after firing their head coach Littrell despite making the CUSA Championship game. That spot was just filled by an assistant coach from Washington State just a few days ago leaving the current coaching staff in limbo. The Mean Green were trending downward to close the season failing to cover their last 3 games and getting blown out in 2 of those games. They were 1-5 SU this year vs teams with winning records and in their 5 losses they were beaten by a combined score of 212 to 119 or an average final score of 42.5 to 23.8. They were outgained by over 600 yards in those 5 losses. Boise turned their season around once they switched QB’s and went with Green under center and hired longtime NFL coach Dirk Koetter to call plays. Once they settled on Green as the starter, the Broncos went 6-2 from that point on with their only losses coming vs BYU and Fresno in the MWC Championship game. They already had a great defense and with Green as the starter they averaged 32 PPG making them very tough to beat. The BSU defense has a HUGE advantage in this game ranking 6th nationally in total defense and 11th in scoring defense allowing 18 PPG compared to the UNT stop unit that ranks outside the top 100 in total defense, pass defense, rush defense, and scoring defense allowing 31.5 PPG. Boise rolls in this one. |
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12-17-22 | Dolphins v. Bills -7 | Top | 29-32 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 18 m | Show |
#310 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Buffalo Bills -7 vs Miami Dolphins, Saturday 8:15pm ET - At first look this may seem to be a lot of points to lay in a divisional showdown, but in reality, it’s not. Consider the Bills were minus -4-points in Miami earlier this season which should have them as double-digit favorite in this game. Buffalo lost the first encounter this season despite outplaying the Phins by a wide margin. Buffalo had 497 total yards in the game to Miami’s 212 yards. The Bills had twice as many first downs (31-15), nearly 3 times the rushing yards (115-41) and 382 passing yards to the Dolphins 171, yet still lost. The Bills blew numerous red zone chances and essentially handed Miami the win. Things will be different this time around as the Bills are at home, in a cold, windy and wet environment. This Miami team that has played four straight games in warm weather are also playing their 3rd road game in as many weeks. After putting up some gaudy offensive numbers against four weak defenses in a row, the Phins were brought back to Earth against the 49ers and Chargers the past two weeks. Today they get a Bills defense that is nearly as good as the 49ers in terms of efficiency. The Bills offense is 2nd in yards per game gained, 6th in passing, 8th in rushing and score the 4th most points in the NFL. Miami is 20th in YPG allowed, 23rd vs. the pass and give up 24PPG which ranks them 23rd. Buffalo has covered 7 of the last ten meetings at home and have the best home point differential in the NFL at +16.8PPG on their home field. In this payback setting we like the Bills big. |
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12-17-22 | Mavs v. Cavs -4.5 | Top | 99-100 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 10 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Cleveland Cavaliers -4.5 vs. Dallas Mavericks, 8 PM ET - These two teams just met in Dallas on the 14th with the Cavs winning 105-90 as a +2.5-point Dog. We don’t see anything changing here and expect another double-digit win by Cleveland. In the game the other night the Cavs double-teamed Doncic in the first half and held him to a 9 of 23 shooting night. Overall, the Maverick shot just 39% for the game and were outrebounded by 10. The Cavs shot 53% for the game and dominated in the paint with 52 points compared to 26 for Dallas. Both teams are off games Friday night, but the Cavs are at home while the Mavs have to travel. The venue has a lot to do with this selection as the Mavs are 3-9 SU on the road this season with a negative differential of minus -4.5PPG (9th worst). Cleveland is polar opposite with a 12-2 SU record at home and a +10.4PPG differential which is 3rd best in the NBA. Dallas owns the 27th worst road defensive efficiency and 26th worst OEFF. Dallas is 1-7 ATS their last eight games on the road versus a team with a winning home record. The Cavaliers are 13-2-1 ATS their last 16 at home. Don’t worry about the revenge factor here, bet the home team Cavs. |
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12-17-22 | Rice v. Southern Miss UNDER 45.5 | Top | 24-38 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 19 m | Show |
#213/214 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 45.5 Points – Rice vs Southern Miss, Saturday at 5:45 PM ET - We do like USM to win this game but we’re very wary of laying nearly a TD with a team that simply doesn’t score many points so the Under is our play in this one. Southern Miss ranks 94th in points scored and outside the top 100 in total offense. If we throw out their game vs FCS Northwestern State where they put up 64 points, the Eagles topped 27 points just once all season and over their last 8 games they only topped 23 points one time. Defensively they are solid holding teams to an average of 23 PPG on the season. They should be able to control this Rice offense that scored just 34 total points over their last 3 games and those games were vs defenses ranked 124th, 90th, and 70th, all well below this USM stop unit. That offensive ineptness coincided with their starting QB McMahon getting injured and the Owls having to use an inexperienced QB. It looks like freshman Padgett will get the start at QB in this game and he has attempted only 40 passes this year completing just 50% of those throws. Neither of these teams play up tempo ranking 69th and 118th in plays per second so we look for a slow paced game without many possessions. The weather in Mobile on Saturday could be rainy and we expect a low scoring game here. Take the Under. |
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12-17-22 | North Texas v. Massachusetts UNDER 127.5 | Top | 62-44 | Win | 100 | 17 h 15 m | Show |
#637/638 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 127.5 Points – North Texas vs UMass, Saturday at 3 PM ET - UNT is the slowest paced team in the nation in adjusted tempo while UMass likes to play fast. They are also dead last in possessions per game at 59 which is a full 4 possessions lower than the next team. As we’ve said in the past, the slow paced team almost always gets control of the tempo and we expect that here. It’s always easier to slow down a fast paced team rather than speed up a slow paced team. The Mean Green rank 4th nationally in points allowed per game at 52. While we know UNT has been one of the better defensive teams in the country in each of their 6 years under head coach Grant McCasland, UMass is now a defensive minded team as well under new head man Frank Martin, formerly at KSU and South Carolina. His teams were always known for defense and he has already instilled that this year with the Minutemen. The difference is drastic with UMass ranking 89th in adjusted defensive efficiency this season after finishing last year ranked 348th in that category. Neither team shoots the ball great with UNT ranking 308th in eFG% and UMass 212th. The Minutemen have played 3 straight fast paced teams and they’ve only faced 1 team this year ranked lower than 300 in pace and that was Charlotte. The total points scored in that game was 114. These 2 met last year and totaled 123 points and that was when UMass had a terrible defense as we mentioned. It looks like Massachusetts will again be without their leading scorer PG Fernandes with an ankle injury. Defense is the strength of both teams and if North Texas gets the pace as we expect, this stays Under. |
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12-16-22 | Missouri State v. Oral Roberts UNDER 145.5 | Top | 77-80 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 40 m | Show |
#879/880 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 145.5 Points – Missouri State vs Oral Roberts, Friday at 8 PM ET - We were on Mizzou State vs IPFW Under over the weekend and it cashed easily. This MSU team is a dead Under team this far with an 8-1 record to the Under. Their games are averaging 122 total points and they haven’t played in a single game that has topped 140 points this season. The Bears are one of the slowest paced teams in the country ranking 330th in adjusted tempo and they average just 65 possessions per game ranking 352nd. Oral Roberts likes to play fast and you can bet Missouri State will slow this game down taking the Golden Eagles out of their comfort zone. ORU has had some high scoring games but the majority of those have come vs teams that love to play fast as well. Neither team are great on the offensive boards which should limit 2nd chances. Neither team gets to the FT line very much with ORU scoring just 13% of their points from the stripe (344th nationally) and Mizzou State scoring 12.5% from the stripe (354th nationally). The Eagles love to shoot 3’s and have a solid 37% team shooting from deep but MSU is solid at defending the arc allowing just 32%. The Bears also like to shoot the 3 but they are flat out bad at it hitting 29% (315th). These 2 met last year and the total was 150. ORU wanted to play fast and MSU took them out of their game and the total points scored ended up being just 129. If Missouri State gets the pace they want here, which we believe they will, this should stay Under the Total. |
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12-16-22 | Warriors v. 76ers OVER 222 | Top | 106-118 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 222 Golden State Warriors at Philadelphia 76ers, 7:40 PM ET - An average NBA game is 226.4 total points per game. Clearly this number is below that and we don’t see this game being ‘average’. On the season the 76ers are one of the slowest paced teams in the NBA, Golden State is the fastest. Philly though has seen an uptick in their overall tempo with the return of James Harden. In their last five games the Sixers are 15th in pace of play. Not surprisingly, also with the return of Harden the defense of the 76ers has regressed. Golden State is without Curry here but do get Klay Thompson back to anchor the 5th highest scoring offense in the NBA. The Warriors road games this season have averaged 238.1PPG. Philly at home has averaged 218. Golden State has gone Over in 5 straight road games, Philadelphia is on a 4-1 Over streak themselves. It’s not too much to ask both teams to score more than 111-points each. |
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12-16-22 | Troy v. UTSA OVER 55.5 | Top | 18-12 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 3 m | Show |
#203/204 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 55.5 Points – Troy vs UTSA, Friday at 3 PM ET - Troy has fantastic overall defensive numbers but they’ve faced an easy slate of offensive opponents. The last 8 opponents they’ve played rank 49th, 120th, 112th, 89th, 86th, 40th, 115th, and 109th in total offense. That means the teams they’ve faced since October 1st have an average rank of 90th in total offense. Now they face a UTSA team that ranks 9th in total offense and has scored at least 30 points in every game but 1 this season. The Roadrunners have scored 40+ points in over half their games this season (7). UTSA has a veteran QB Harris that is one of the better “unknown” QB’s in the nation. They rank 12th nationally in passing YPG and Troy hasn’t faced a proficient passing offense since October 1st when WKY put up over 400 yards through the air on the Trojans. We expect UTSA to be successful offensively in this game. Same goes for Troy. They struggled offensively at times this year but found their rhythm at the end of the year scoring 45, 48, and 34 points over their last 3 games. The Trojans will be facing a UTSA defense that ranks 90th in total defense and 101st vs the pass where Troy has been proficient averaging 253 YPG through the air. Weather looks great in Orlando on Friday afternoon and we expect a lot of offense. OVER is the play in the Cure Bowl on Friday. |
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12-15-22 | Suns v. Clippers UNDER 218.5 | Top | 111-95 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 218.5 Phoenix Suns @ LA Clippers, 10:40 PM ET - We successfully played Under last night in the Timberwolves vs. Clippers game and will stay with another Under on the Clippers again tonight. Let’s consider this. Last night the Wolves/Clippers Over-Under number was 221 and the Wolves are the 4th fastest paced team in the NBA with the 17th worst defensive efficiency. The line on tonight’s game is just 3-points higher and the Suns are the 9th slowest paced team in the league and rank 10th in DEFF. The Clippers have the 4th best defensive efficiency rating in the NBA allowing just 1.098PPP. Los Angeles also prefers a slow tempo ranking 8th lowest in possessions per game. This series has seen 5 straight Unders cash, 4 last season and 1 this year with the five meetings averaging just 204.8PPG. Since the start of last season, the Suns are 41-44 Under against other Western Conference teams, the Clippers are 28-46-1 or 62.2% Under. If it’s not broken, why fix it. Bet Under again tonight. |
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12-15-22 | 49ers v. Seahawks +3 | Top | 21-13 | Loss | -100 | 26 h 55 m | Show |
#302 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Seattle Seahawks +3 over San Francisco 49ers, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - Rookie QB Purdy has been very successful in his first 2 appearances in the NFL coming in relief 2 weeks ago to beat a faltering Miami team and then topping TB last week. Both of those games were at home. Now, if he plays, he’ll be making his first road start which is a whole different scenario. Not only that, he is not 100% with an oblique injury and there is a chance he won’t be able to go on a short week. If he can’t, it’s journeyman Josh Johnson who was just added to the roster last week. San Fran has had a very favorable schedule as of late with a grand total of ONE road game since November 1st before traveling to Seattle for this one. The Seahawks are in must win mode if they want to stay in the playoff hunt. They’ve dropped 3 of their last 4 and they’ve been competitive with 5 of their 6 losses coming by one possession. Seattle has been a house of horrors for the Niners with the Seahawks winning 12 of the last 14 both SU & ATS at home. We’re getting QB Geno Smith who is still 5th in the NFL in QBR vs either a rookie or a 4th stringer. The Niners are becoming a bit overvalued after winning 6 straight games now laying over a FG on the road with a rookie QB making his first road start, if he can even go. We’ll take the points. |
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12-14-22 | Wolves v. Clippers UNDER 223.5 | Top | 88-99 | Win | 100 | 16 h 3 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 223 Minnesota Timberwolves @ LA Clippers – 10:10PM ET - The Clippers just faced the #1 offensive team in the NBA in the Celtics and the O/U number on that game was 225.5. It finished with just 206 total points. LA has the 5th best defensive efficiency rating in the NBA allowing just 1.104-points per possession. Minnesota ranks 20th in DEFF but do limit foes to just 46.2% shooting which is 9th best overall in the league. The Timberwolves defense doesn’t have to be great though as the Clippers offense is 29th in scoring at 107.9PPG and have the 4th worst offensive efficiency rating in the NBA. The Wolves aren’t a whole lot better offensively ranking 18th in OEFF. Minnesota doesn’t shoot the 3-ball well at 33.4% which is 25th. Minnesota will want to play fast but the Clippers will dictate the tempo they want as the home team and they prefer to play slow (23rd pace). We don’t see this game getting above 216. |
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12-14-22 | UCLA v. Maryland -120 | Top | 87-60 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 34 m | Show |
#664 ASA TOP PLAY ON Maryland -120 over UCLA, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - We really like this spot for Maryland. The Terps started the season 8-0 including 5-0 at home. They have since lost back to back games vs 2 very formidable opponents. Last week Maryland lost by 5 in Madison vs Wisconsin and over the weekend they lost by 3 on a neutral court to one of the top teams in the nation, Tennessee. In their 56-53 loss to the Vols, the Terps made only 2 of 24 three pointers (8%) and were outscored by 15 from beyond the arc but still nearly won the game. Now back at home in a semi desperate situation off 2 losses, we see Maryland playing very well. UCLA has won 5 straight games but they haven’t left the state of California since November 20th. Their only true road game this season was @ Stanford. The Bruins did have 2 neutral site games in November in Las Vegas which is a very short trip and they lost both vs Baylor and Illinois, a team Maryland beat at home already this season. This is a long trip, west coast to east coast, for UCLA and on top of that they have a huge game in New York City on Saturday vs Kentucky. The Bruins get to the FT line very infrequently (12.7% of their points) while Maryland scores 20% of their points at the stripe. That could be the difference here. Both teams also prefer to play inside the arc with UCLA scoring 62% of their points and Maryland 52% from 2 point land. Defensively, the Terps are outstanding defending inside the 3 point line allowing 43% shooting (29th nationally) while UCLA not so much giving up almost 53% shooting (261st). The Bruins lost 4 of their top 6 players from last year’s team and have a number of freshman in their rotation. This will be their first big true road game and we like Maryland to win this one at home. |
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12-14-22 | Red Wings v. Wild -1.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 120 | 13 h 4 m | Show |
ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota Wild Puck Line (-1.5 goals) over Detroit Red Wings, Wednesday at 7:05 PM ET - Plus money is in the +115 range on this one as of early morning Wednesday. The Wild are in a great spot for a home rout here. Detroit is in 2nd game of a B2B and had top goalie Husso in goal last night. The Red Wings lost key player Dylan Larkin to injury in last night's game versus Carolina also. That is a key blow to a team that was already struggling to score goals. Though it is uncertain how much time Larkin will miss it has been announced already that he will not play in tonight's game. This is a revenge game for the Wild as they lost to the Red Wings earlier this season and we expect Minnesota will take full advantage of the situation. Detroit has lost 3 straight games and has scored an average of only 1 goal per game in this 3-game losing streak. The Wild have won 8 of 11 games and have scored an average of 3.7 goals per game during this stretch. This one shapes up to be a complete mismatch which is, of course, the reason the Wild are 2 to 1 favorites on the money line. The value comes into play here by laying the 1.5 goals on the puck line and getting a plus money return as a result. Home team in a blowout per our computer math model. Laying the 1.5 goals with home favorite Minnesota is the value play here. |
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12-13-22 | Celtics v. Lakers OVER 233.5 | Top | 122-118 | Win | 100 | 26 h 6 m | Show |
ASA Top Play on 10* OVER 233.5 Boston Celtics @ LA Lakers, 10 PM ET - The Celtics are the #1 offensive team in the NBA in terms of scoring at 120PPG and efficiency at 1.194PPP. Boston is the best 3-point shooting team in the NBA at 39.7% and rank 8th in 3PT attempts per game. The Lakers are 26th in the NBA in points allowed per game at 116.3PPG. The Lakers are 19th in defensive efficiency giving up 1.127PPP. In the Lakers most recent 5-game stretch they have allowed 122.2PPG which is the highest in the NBA. But, in that same stretch of 5-games they are 6th in scoring at 118.2PPG. Pace of play is important here as the Lakers are the 2nd fastest paced team in the NBA. The Celtics are 15th. Boston has the best Over record in the NBA when playing without rest at 15-4-1 since the start of last season and those games have gone Over by an average of +12.2PPG. |
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12-13-22 | Marshall v. NC-Greensboro +4.5 | Top | 67-75 | Win | 100 | 24 h 24 m | Show |
#604 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UNC Greensboro +4.5 over Marshall, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Marshall steps into this game with a 9-1 record but we feel they are vastly overvalued right now due to that mark. The fact is, they’ve played one of the easiest schedules in the nation thus far with a SOS rank of 348th out of 363 teams. This will be their 3rd straight road game since last Thursday having played Duquesne and Robert Morris (both in Pittsburgh) on the road on Thursday & Saturday. UNCG doesn’t have the record that Marshall does (4-6 SU) but they’ve played the much tougher slate so far this season (Top 100 SOS rank). They’ve also been on the road for 3 weeks as this is the Spartans first home game since November 22nd. They are coming off their most complete performance of the season last Tuesday nearly knocking off Arkansas, the #9 ranked team in the nation, on the road. UNCG led at halftime and the Razorbacks first lead of the 2nd half came with under 9:00 remaining in the game and the final margin of 7 points was the largest of the game for Arkansas. The Razorbacks attempted 33 FT’s in the game to just 11 for Greensboro and the Spartans still nearly pulled the upset. Marshall has some gaudy offensive numbers but they haven’t played a defense with a pulse yet. The Herd hasn’t faced a defense ranked inside the top 140 in adjusted efficiency and 8 of their 10 opponents have defense ranked outside the top 200 in that metric. UNCG ranks 90th in adjusted defensive efficiency and just held a potent Arkansas offense to 65 points, 15 points below their season average. We’re getting value with this number. If this game was played to open the season, UNCG would absolutely be favored with Marshall coming off a year in which they went 12-21 last season. The Herd are in a tough spot here and favored on the road vs a desperate home team that is better than their record. Take the points. |
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12-12-22 | Cavs -5.5 v. Spurs | Top | 111-112 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 9 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Cleveland Cavaliers -5.5 vs San Antonio Spurs, 8:40 PM ET - Even if Donovan Mitchell can’t go Monday we still like the Cavs minus the points. The Spurs are coming off a big road upset win in Miami and now return home where they haven’t had much success this season. San Antonio is 4-10 SU at home with the worst average point differential in the NBA at minus -9.6PPG. Prior to a recent home win over the Rockets, the Spurs had lost five straight at home, all by 5 or more points. The Cavs haven’t been great on the road this season but they are stepping way down in class against the Spurs here. Cleveland is 12th in offensive efficiency this season, the Spurs rank 29th. Defensively things get much worse for San Antonio as the Cavs hold the #1 rating in defensive efficiency while the Spurs are last. There is enough of a supporting cast in Cleveland with Allen, Mobley, LeVert and Garland to make up for the loss of Mitchell here. The Cavs 4-0 ATS streak in San Antonio continues tonight. |
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12-11-22 | Bucs v. 49ers UNDER 37.5 | Top | 7-35 | Loss | -110 | 44 h 5 m | Show |
#123/124 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 37.5 Points – Tampa Bay Bucs vs San Francisco 49ers, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - TB can’t score (18 PPG rank 27th) and now they are playing the best defense they’ve seen, the #1 defense in the NFL. TB games have reached 40 total points (in regulation) just once in their last 8 games and on the road this season the offense has been terrible. Away from home the Bucs have scored 5 TD’s in 58 possessions (8%) worst in the NFL. Brady struggles when pressured and will get plenty of it here vs a SF defense that ranks in the top 5 in sack% and sacks per game. With no running game, Tampa dead last in rushing at 73 YPG, this offense is in trouble on Sunday. Brock Purdy will get his first career start at QB for SF. He played decently in relief of an injured Garoppolo last week, but now TB has film on him. He may also be without (or not 100%) two of his top offensive weapons as both McCaffrey and Samuel are banged up and questionable. The Niners offense has played only 2 top 12 defenses this season, Denver & New Orleans, and scored 10 points & 13 in those games WITH Garoppolo at QB. Both defenses are the strengths of their teams in this one. Both rank in top 6 in YPP allowed and in the top 5 in points allowed (1st and 5th). SF allows points on just 25% of their opponents possessions (1st in NFL) and TB allows points on 29% of opponents possessions (2nd best in NFL). These two teams have combined to play 24 games this year and 17 have gone Under the total. TB games average 36 PPG & SF games average 39 PPG and that was with Garoppolo at QB. Rain & wind in the forecast for SF on Sunday afternoon and we expect a low scoring game here. |
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12-11-22 | Chiefs v. Broncos UNDER 44 | Top | 34-28 | Loss | -108 | 44 h 54 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 44 Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos, 4:25 PM ET - The Denver Broncos have been an Under machine this season with 11 of their twelve games staying below the posted Total. That includes three games that went into overtime. In fact, if you eliminate the points scored in OT, those 11 Unders have all finished with 33 or less points. Kansas City is one of the best offensive teams in the NFL, yet they have stayed Under the number in 4 of their last five games. Three of those five games finished with less than 44 points. Two weeks ago, the Chiefs faced a Rams team that is similar to this Broncos team and the O/U in that game was 41.5. The Broncos have a much better defense than the Rams do, and the offenses are both pathetic. Despite being on the field a lot, the Broncos are 3rd in defensive yards per game allowed 3rd versus the pass, 19th against the run and allow the 2nd fewest points per game in the league. Offensively the Broncos are 27th in YPG, 21st in passing O, 24th in rushing and last in the league in PPG scored at 13.8. We expect the Chiefs to get in front early on and take a passive approach in the second half. Denver is averaging just 5.3PPG in the second half of games and doesn't pose a threat to come from behind. The Under is 5-2-1 the last eight meetings. Bet Under. |
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12-10-22 | Mavs v. Bulls -120 | Top | 115-144 | Win | 100 | 24 h 17 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Chicago Bulls Money Line -120 vs Dallas Mavericks, 8:10 PM ET - Dallas is coming off a huge showdown at home against the Bucks and will have a tough time in the 2nd night of a back-to-back. Chicago meanwhile has been off since Dec 7th. The Bulls recently played a very tough stretch of road games going 2-4 SU. They then returned home and got a solid home win against the Wizards. Dallas is just 3-8 SU away from home this season with a negative differential of minus -2.3PPG. Chicago is 6-5 SU at home with a +1.7PPG average margin of victory. The Mavs are 7-9-1 ATS their last 17 games when playing without rest. Since the start of last season the Mavericks have the 4th worst ATS record in the NBA when it comes to playing out of Conference at 15-24-2. This is a great spot for Chicago and we like them here in a double-digit win. |
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12-10-22 | IUPU Ft Wayne v. Missouri State UNDER 134 | Top | 65-61 | Win | 100 | 23 h 17 m | Show |
#723/724 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 134 Points – IPFW vs Missouri State, Saturday at 8 PM ET - Two bad offensive teams going at it here. They are both ranked outside the top 200 in adjusted offensive efficiency, eFG%, 2 point FG% and 3 point FG%. They are both much better defensively allowing less than 1.00 points per possession on the season ranking them 101st and 115th in adjusted defensive efficiency. IPFW has had a few higher scoring games this season, however those have been vs poor defensive teams that like to play at a fast tempo. In this game, IPFW will be facing a Missouri State team that wants to play slow (321st in tempo) so we expect the host Bears to control the tempo here. When facing teams similar the Mizzou State (slow tempo & solid defensive teams) IPFW has totaled 115 points (vs Northwestern) and 128 points (vs Southern Miss). The only game that Missouri State has played this year that topped 131 total points was vs Detroit which is a fast paced team and the Titans rank 358th in adjusted defensive efficiency and that game only got to 140 total points. In their other 7 games, the Bears are averaging 120 total points. Neither team is adept at offensive rebounding so we don’t look for many 2nd opportunities and both get to the foul line infrequently. This has all the makings of a low scoring grinder and we’ll be on the Under. |
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12-10-22 | Eastern Washington v. South Dakota State -8 | Top | 76-77 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 28 m | Show |
#670 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* South Dakota State -8 over Eastern Washington, Saturday at 5 PM ET - SDSU steps into this one with a 3-7 record but they’ve played one of the toughest schedules in the country to date. Their strength of schedule ranks in the top 20 nationally and of their 10 games thus far, 9 have been on the road or neutral sites. They are coming off 4 straight losses, all away from home vs top notch competition (James Madison, Kent, Arkansas, and Montana). This now becomes a huge game for them and their opponent, Eastern Washington (ranked 231st), will be the 2nd lowest rated opponent SDSU has faced this season. This game is at home for the Jackrabbits and a big step down in competition after already facing 5 top 100 opponents. SDSU is much better than their record as they return 6 of their top 8 players from last year’s team that finished with a 30-5 record and made it to the NCAA tourney. EWU also has a losing record at 4-5, yet they’ve played a much easier schedule (220th ranked SOS) and their 4 wins have come against teams ranked 362nd, 339th, 259th, and 241st. Three of those wins were by 8 points or less despite the easy competition. All 5 of their losses have come by double digits and only one of those came vs a team in the top 85. The Eagles are 1-3 SU on the road this year with their only win coming @ Cal by 2 points on Wednesday of this week. Their other road games were losses by 11, 12, and 20 points. That win a few days ago vs Cal may seem like a big one but the Bears are now 0-10 this year with 3 of those losses coming vs teams ranked outside the top 200. After that road win in California, they are now in South Dakota just a few days later which is not an ideal situation. The Eagles are not great on either end of the court ranking outside the top 200 in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency. They are stepping into a hornet’s nest here with a very solid team in must win mode at home where they’ve won 45 of their last 47 games. We’ll lay the points. |
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12-09-22 | Bucks v. Mavs UNDER 226 | Top | 106-105 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 224.5 Milwaukee Bucks at Dallas Mavericks, 10:10 PM ET - These two teams just met recently in Milwaukee with a total of 216.5. They went over that number with 239 total points. With the adjustment of the O/U we like the value and an Under bet here. In the game the other day both teams shot well above their season averages as the Bucks hit 56% from the field (46.1% season ave), while the Mavs shot 51% (47.2% season average). The two teams attempted 166 total field goals which is significantly lower than the league average of 176.2. On the season the Bucks road games have averaged 213.3 total points per game. Dallas at home has averaged 216.2PPG. Milwaukee owns the #1 ranked FG% defense in the NBA and are 11th in 3PT% D. Milwaukee is average in pace of play and the Mavericks are the 2nd slowest in terms of tempo. Both teams are in the top half of the NBA in defensive efficiency rating too. It all adds up to a less than average NBA score. Bet UNDER. |
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12-08-22 | Raiders v. Rams OVER 43.5 | Top | 16-17 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 39 m | Show |
#101/102 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 43.5 Points – Las Vegas Raiders vs LA Rams, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - The Rams defense is rated 17th in YPP allowed and 14th in total defense. However they haven’t been very good over the last month or so. Over their last 4 games they’ve allowed 26, 27, 27, and 27 points. They are facing a Raider offense that ranks 5th in YPP and they rank 3rd in the NFL scoring points on 45% of their offensive possessions this season behind only KC & Buffalo. And over the last month, the Las Vegas offense has really taken a nice step up averaging 6.5 YPP over their last 4 games which is 2nd in the NFL during that stretch behind only KC. The Raiders will have success offensively in this game. We don’t trust them to cover the 6 points as most of their games are close and their defense is not good. That’s why we’re on the Over here. Last week the Rams were able to muster up some offense and score 23 points vs Seattle. That means in 2 of their last 3 games they’ve gotten to at least 20 points. LA starter at QB will be either Wolford or Perkins and both have started a finished a game this season. There is also a chance newly acquired Baker Mayfield might be available. They should be able to have some success vs a Vegas defense that has allowed at least 20 points in every game this year but one and ranks 31st defensive DVOA per Football Outsiders. Vegas games have averaged 48 total points this season and Rams home games have averaged 44 total points as we get perfect conditions for scoring at SoFi Stadium. Over is the play on Thursday Night |
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12-08-22 | UMass Lowell v. Massachusetts -2 | Top | 85-80 | Loss | -113 | 14 h 7 m | Show |
#306686 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UMass -2 over UMass Lowell, Thursday at 7 PM ET - UMass Lowell has an impressive 9-1 record but they’ve played nobody. Actually we take the back, the one good team they’ve played this season, Rutgers, beat them by 8 points. Their strength of schedule ranks 356th nationally (out of 363) and 8 of their 10 games this season have come vs teams ranked outside the top 300 or non Division 1 opponents. UMass Lowell’s best win on the season came in a 73-62 win over Brown, the 233rd ranked team in the country. The River Hawks overall offensive numbers are solid but let’s take into account they’ve faced 10 teams this year and 7 of those teams are ranked outside the top 300 in adjusted defensive efficiency or they are non division 1 opponents. The best defense they faced this season, Rutgers, held them to 18 points below their season scoring average and allowed them to make only 42% of their shots and 22% of their 3-pointers. UMass has the 2nd best defense this team will face this season behind Rutgers. The Minutemen have faced the much more difficult schedule and have a similar record at 7-1. Because of UMass Lowell’s hot start, vs poor competition, we’re getting some value here with UMass. The Minutemen faced UMass Lowell last year here and were favored by -9.5 and won by 11. Now we’re getting them at -2 at home vs a program they’ve never lost to. UMass is 5-0 vs UMass Lowell winning by an average of 10 PPG. We’ll take the Minutemen at home on Thursday night. |
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12-07-22 | Coyotes v. Oilers OVER 6.5 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
#75/76 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 6.5 Goals - Arizona Coyotes at Edmonton Oilers, Wednesday at 9:35 PM ET - The Oilers are off a 3-2 loss in which they allowed 50 shots on goal. They continue to struggle defensively but have so much firepower on offense it usually bails them out. Edmonton has now allowed 83 shots on goal the last two games! But the Oilers can score with the best of them and continue to be among the league's most dangerous teams offensively. An added bonus is that Zach Hyman could be back tonight as he did skate yesterday. Even if he is not back the Oilers still have their top guns of Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. The Oilers scored plenty against the Coyotes last season as they scored at least 5 goals in each of the 3 games and the last two meetings saw the teams combine for 8 and 7 goals respectively. Here Edmonton will be hungry to bounce back on home ice as they continue their mastery of attacking the Coyotes and the Oilers respond off the 3-2 loss to the Capitals. Prior to that defeat Edmonton's last 5 games all totaled 7 or more goals and, in fact, 7 of last 8 games overall had totaled at least 7 goals. The Oilers have allowed at least 3 goals in 10 straight games! But Edmonton is a -300 favorite here for a reason. In other words, it is not a surprise that many of our math models are calling for at least a 4-3 Oilers win and a 5-3 final is the most probable final score that has come up in our math model simulations. Edmonton will again struggle some in their own zone and the Coyotes have some solid scoring threats and are a scrappy team. But ultimately this one will be about the relentless Oilers attack showing no mercy as they again pile up goals against Arizona just like they did in all 3 meetings last season! The Coyotes are struggling this season but have scored an average of 3 goals in their last 7 games and they are scrappy and will fight to be in this one all the way. They'll have to score plenty to stay in it too and they know it. That turns this one into a barnburner! Look for at least 7 in this one! Over is our play here. |
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12-07-22 | Pittsburgh +4 v. Vanderbilt | Top | 74-75 | Win | 100 | 16 h 16 m | Show |
#703 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Pittsburgh +4 over Vanderbilt, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - We’re getting some really solid value here with a Pitt team that is better than most think. They have just won back to back road games vs teams that are both better than this Vandy squad. Since losing 3 in a row back in mid November vs 3 very good opponents (WVU, Michigan, and VCU), the Panthers have won 5 straight including wins @ Northwestern (by 29 points) and @ NC State (by 8 points). They’ve covered their last 4 games by a combined 65 points or an average of 16.2 points per game. Vandy has failed to cover 3 of their last 4 games and of their 4 wins on the season, 3 came by 8 points or less with 2 coming by 3 points. The Commodores are just 2-2 at home this year including a 12 point loss to Southern Miss who ranks 180th currently. Not a huge home court advantage for Vandy as their record at Memorial Coliseum since the start of the 2020 season is just 17-17. Vandy’s PPG differential on the season is +1 PPG and they’ve faced 4 top 100 teams this year with a record of 1-3 in those games. Their only top 100 win was by 2 points in OT vs Temple. In what we expect to be a tight game, the FT line will be key. Vanderbilt rarely gets to the line and when they do they only make 61% of their FT’s (332nd). Pitt scores nearly 20% of their points from the FT line (115th nationally) and they make 74% as a team. We have this number set at Vandy -1 per our power ratings so we’ll take Pitt +4 here. |
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12-07-22 | Pacers v. Wolves -3.5 | Top | 115-121 | Win | 100 | 15 h 19 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Minnesota Timberwolves -3.5 vs. Indiana Pacers, 8:10 PM ET - The Pacers are exhausted at this point of the season as they are playing their 7th straight road game and are off a satisfying win over the World Champs Warriors. Minnesota is off a different result as they lost at home to the Thunder on Dec 3rd. They were off a huge game against the Grizzlies who knocked them out of the playoffs last year. Now with 3 days rest and off that loss they’ll rebound with a big effort here. Indiana has a negative differential on the road of minus -4.7PPG and are 2-4 SU on this current trip. Minnesota has a losing home record this season which is a big reason why this line is as low as it is. The Wolves do have a winning record since the start of last season when coming off a loss. They also have a 19-19-2 ATS record at home as a favorite but their average Margin of Victory is +6.9PPG which gets us a cover here. |
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12-06-22 | Mavs v. Nuggets -4.5 | Top | 116-115 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 24 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* DENVER NUGGETS -4.5 vs Dallas Mavericks, 10PM ET - We love the spot to fade the Mavericks here as they are coming off a huge game on Monday night at home against the Suns. Denver meanwhile was off yesterday and is coming off a back-to-back losses on the road in New Orleans and Atlanta. These two teams met in late November in Dallas and split with each team winning a game. The Nuggets played without Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic or 50.1-points per game, 13.8 rebounds per game and 13.8- assists per game and still split with the Mavs. Dallas is just 2-8 SU on the road this season with a negative differential of minus -2.7PPG. Denver is 6-2 SU at home with the 5th best average Margin of Victory of +11PPG. Dallas is 6-9-1 ATS their last sixteen games when playing without rest and the home team has covered 4 of the last five meetings. Lay the points with Denver here. |
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12-06-22 | Illinois +4.5 v. Texas | Top | 85-78 | Win | 100 | 28 h 42 m | Show |
#607 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Illinois +4.5 over Texas, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - This one is being played on a neutral court – MSG in New York City. It’s the first time the Longhorns have left the state of Texas this season. They’ve played all home games + 1 sort of neutral site game in Edinburgh, TX vs a bad Northern Arizona team. Speaking of bad, the Texas strength of schedule is just that ranking outside the top 300. The only 2 top 100 teams they’ve faced are Gonzaga and Creighton, both in their home arena. We were on the Blue Jays +6.5 in that game and they hung tough getting us a cover losing by 5 despite making just 4 of their 27 three point attempts (15%). We really like this Illinois team and feel they will contend for a Big 10 title. They’ve played the much tougher schedule thus far including 1 true road game vs Maryland and a few neutral site games in Las Vegas vs Virginia & UCLA. The Illini have already faced 3 teams ranked inside the top 20 per our power ratings. They’ve beaten a very good UCLA team on the road and crushed Syracuse at home. Their 2 losses came at the hands of Virginia and @ Maryland 71-66 on Friday night. Those 2 teams are a combined 15-0 so far on the season. They match up well with Texas here who can’t shoot outside the arc (314th in 3 point percentage) and likes to score inside. Illinois has allowed opponents to shoot only 41% from inside the arc which is 11th best in the country. The Illini are the much bigger team as well and should control the boards vs a Texas team that has already been outrebounded in half of their games this season despite their weak schedule. Two very good defensive teams going head to head in MSG and we’re taking the points with Illinois in a game we expect to go to the wire. |
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12-05-22 | Suns v. Mavs UNDER 221.5 | Top | 111-130 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 29 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 221.5 Phoenix Suns @ Dallas Mavericks, 8:40 PM ET - We get two of the slowest paced teams in the league squaring off here is what shapes up to be a low scoring game. The Phoenix Suns rank 24th in pace at 97.9 possessions per game. The Dallas Mavericks are slower yet ranking 29th at 95.6 possessions per game. Both teams are top 10 in offensive efficiency but also both top 10 in defensive efficiency. This series has seen the Under cash in 5 of the last six meetings and all six of those games finished with less than 213 total points. This is going to be a half-court game and unless both teams shoot remarkably well it stays under by 10+ points. |
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12-05-22 | Saints +3.5 v. Bucs | Top | 16-17 | Win | 100 | 20 h 19 m | Show |
#477 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New Orleans Saints +3.5 over Tampa Bay Bucs, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - NFL teams off shutout losses have long been a very strong play the following week. Since 2015 teams that get shutout one week have a spread record of 26-12-3 ATS the following week. As an underdog off a shutout loss, those teams are 71-55-2 ATS the last 128 games that fall into that situation. New Orleans lost @ San Francisco 13-0 last week and we like them to cover here. Despite the 13-0 final, the Saints played a very good San Fran team pretty even. They each averaged 4.9 YPP but the Niners rank 14 more offensive snaps due to 2 New Orleans turnovers. On top of that, the Saints missed a FG, fumbled at the SF 6-yard line and were shut out on downs at the SF 4-yard line so they definitely had their chances. New Orleans is much better than their 4-8 record with a YPP differential of +0.5 which ranks 8th the league. Tampa is 14th in that category at +0.09. The Bucs are off an loss in OT vs a below average Cleveland team and since starting the season 2-0, in their last 9 games Tampa is 3-6 SU and 1-7-1 ATS. Their 3 wins during that stretch have come by 3, 5, and 6 points vs teams that have a combined record of 14-19. They have failed to cover the spread by a combined 76 points or 8.4 PPG as they continue to be overvalued. In the first game this season, TB won 20-10 but they were outgained 4.7 YPP to 4.0 YPP and gifted 5 turnovers by the Saints including a 68 yard pick 6. Prior to that New Orleans had won 7 of the previous 8 match ups. Tampa is 0-4 ATS as a favorite of 3 or less this year and we like the Saints to get this cover on Monday night. |
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12-04-22 | Jets +3 v. Vikings | Top | 22-27 | Loss | -114 | 22 h 49 m | Show |
#451 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* NY Jets +3 over Minnesota, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Line value with Jets here in our opinion. This number basically says these 2 are even on a neutral field which we disagree with. Minnesota has the better record at 9-2 but they remain vastly overrated. They have a negative YPP differential and their point differential is just +5 on the season despite their 9 wins. There are 12 teams in the NFL that have better point differential than Minnesota and 29 teams that have a better YPP differential. That’s right, the Vikings rank 30th in YPP differential at -0.84 and the Jets rank 9th at +0.35 and NY has played the more difficult schedule. In their last 2 games, Minnesota was rolled at home by Dallas 40-3 and then “bounced back” to beat New England 33-26 but the Vikes were outgained by a whopping 2.0 YPP in that win. They allowed 26 points and 7.4 YPP to a Patriots offense that had 10 points on just 4.7 YPP on Thursday vs Buffalo. HUGE edge defensive here for the Jets as they allowed 5.1 YPP (5th) while Minnesota gives up 6.3 YPP (31st). New NY QB White is an upgrade over a struggling Wilson and while we don’t expect the huge numbers he had last week vs Chicago, he’ll do enough vs a Minnesota defense allowing 7.2 yards per pass attempt (31st) to get the Jets a win here. We’ll take the points with the Jets on Sunday |
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12-04-22 | Broncos v. Ravens UNDER 39.5 | Top | 9-10 | Win | 100 | 21 h 27 m | Show |
#453/454 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 39.5 Points – Denver Broncos vs Baltimore Ravens, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Denver hasn’t reached 17 points in 9 of their 11 games and they’ve gone Under the total in 10 of their 11 games this season. Their games have stayed Under the total by 111 total points this season! They rank last in scoring offense and 4th in scoring defense and Denver games are averaging just 32 total points this season. Only 22.7% of their offensive possessions have either reached the red zone or scored prior which is lowest in the league. The Broncos have also punted on almost 51% of their possessions which is the highest rate in the NFL. The Baltimore defense has been solid allowing just 20.8 PPG and they rank 9th defensive DVOA (per Football Outsiders) so we don’t see Denver’s offense having much success. Some on the other side. The Ravens offense is not overly explosive through the air with just 24 completions of 20 or more yards which is 3rd worst in the NFL. They are facing a Denver defense that has allowed more than 23 points only once all season and Baltimore loves to run the ball (6th highest run percentage in the league) which eats clock. Last week Baltimore was in a high scoring 28-27 loss @ Jacksonville (24th in total defense) but that game was 12-10 in the 4th quarter before the offenses went crazy. Denver games has reached 40 points ONCE this season and these teams have combined to go 17-5 to the UNDER this season. Another low scoring game here. |
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12-03-22 | Blazers +4.5 v. Jazz | Top | 116-111 | Win | 100 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Portland Trailblazers +4.5 vs. Utah Jazz, 9:10 PM ET - Scheduling clearly favors the Blazers in this matchup as the Jazz are coming off a game last night, plus playing their 6th game in a nine day span. The Jazz are coming off a 20-point win over the Pacers last night but are just 3-3 SU their last six at home. The Blazers last played on Nov 30th, a loss to the Lakers who are clearly playing much better right now. Portland is 7-6 SU on the road this season with a +/- of minus -3.6PPG. Utah is 8-3 SU at home this season, but again they are in a very tough scheduling situation here. Dating back to the start of last season, the Jazz are just 9-9-1 ATS when playing without rest with a +/- of +2.9PPG. Utah is not a trustworthy favorite with a 35-50-2 ATS record since the start of the 2021 season, 3-6 ATS this season with a +/- of +2.8PPG. Portland as a dog is 11-5 ATS with a +/- of -3.4PPG. Grab whatever points are available and don’t be shocked if the Blazers win outright. |
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12-03-22 | Rockets v. Warriors OVER 232 | Top | 101-120 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 232 Golden State Warriors vs. Houston Rockets – 8:40 PM ET - The Rockets are in a tough situation here as are the Warriors. Houston is coming off an improbable upset of the Suns last night in Phoenix as a +11.5-point dog. Prior to that game the Rockets had played 2 straight in the higher altitude of Denver making this their 4th game in six days. Golden State played last night too and will probably rest Klay Thompson and maybe even Draymond Green here. This is the Warriors 3rd game in five days. These same two teams just met in Houston and produced a combined 247 total points. The Rockets defense has been especially bad allowing 119 or more in 7 of their last ten games. Even without Thompson in the lineup for GST the Warriors can still score with Poole and DiVincenzo off the bench. Poole just poured in 30-points last night. Golden State historically has been a great defense under Steve Kerr but that hasn’t been the case this season as they rank 17th in defensive efficiency and give up 117PPG. The young Rockets are starting to figure things out offensively as they have scored 118 or more points in 4 of their last six. Two tired teams won’t play much defense tonight and this goes Over rather easily. |
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12-03-22 | Clemson -7.5 v. North Carolina | Top | 39-10 | Win | 100 | 31 h 55 m | Show |
#321/322 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Clemson -7.5 over UNC, Saturday at 8 PM ET - We like this spot for Clemson off a 1 point loss to a surging South Carolina team as a double digit favorite. It wasn’t a terrible loss by any means vs a surging Gamecocks team who had won 3 of their last 4 games including a 63-38 win over a top 5 Tennessee team. The Tigers blew a 9 point second half lead in that game and head coach Dabo Swinney made all of his coaches put in extra film time after that loss in preparation for the ACC Championship game. Clemson is very well coached and we feel they’ll play outstanding in this game after last week’s result. UNC is trending downward for sure. They have lost back to back games vs teams using back up QB’s. The Heels lost at home to a bad Georgia Tech team 21-17 on November 19th and the Jackets were without their starting QB Sims in that game and lost their back up during the game. UNC followed that loss up by getting beat again at home last Saturday by NC State who played their 3rd string QB Finley and he had only appeared in one other game this season. The offense, particularly, QB Maye looks like they are running out of gas. They struggled to put up yardage each of the last 2 weeks (350 and 365 total yards) and now they face one of the better defensive fronts in college football. Maye’s numbers have dropped off drastically the last 2 weeks as he has completed just 57% of his passes for 215 YPG through the air. Clemson with a huge edge defensively here (24th in total D to 117th for North Carolina) and they have a solid coaching advantage. Clemson is used to playing in big games like this and we like them to win by double digits. |
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12-03-22 | Wisconsin v. Marquette UNDER 136 | Top | 80-77 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 42 m | Show |
#669/670 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 136 Points – Wisconsin vs Marquette, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET - Both teams coming off high scoring games earlier this week which gives us some value on the Under in this rivalry. The Badgers played host to Wake Forest on Tuesday and lost a tight one 78-75 which was easily their highest scoring game of the season. Even with that score factored in, Wisconsin games are averaging just 121 points on the season. IN that game the two teams combined to make over 48% of their shots and over 38% from beyond the arc. Wisconsin head coach Greg Gard was not happy after the game with his defense and you can bet they’ll play very well on that end here. Prior to that game the UW defense had allowed only 1 team to reach 60 points and that was Kansas who scored 63 in regulation. The Badgers held USC to 59, Dayton to 42, and Stanford to 50 to name a few. Marquette lit up Baylor here earlier this week scoring 96 points. However, they also made almost 60% of their shots and they were in a up and down the court game with the Bears who love to play fast. Marquette does as well ranking 27th in adjusted tempo. Wisconsin ranks 303rd in that category and Gard will do everything in his power to slow this game down to keep the Golden Eagles out of their comfort zone. As we’ve said many times, it’s much easier for a team to slow the pace rather than speed up a team that doesn’t want to play that style. We expect a lower possession game here. Both teams are strong defensively ranking 16th (Wisconsin) and 40th (Marquette) in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Golden Eagles have been able to turn teams over and create easy buckets this season but that’ll be tough vs Wisconsin who ranks 21st in offensive turnover rate. Marquette played one team this year that was very similar to Wisconsin in defensive efficiency and pace and that was Mississippi State. That game ended with a final score of 58-55 in favor of the Bulldogs. This one stays Under the total in this intense, in-state rivalry. |
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12-02-22 | Bulls +7.5 v. Warriors | Top | 111-119 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Chicago Bulls +7.5 vs Golden State Warriors, 10 PM ET - The Bulls just played at Phoenix and were plus +5.5-points. Earlier in the same road trip they were plus +7.5-points at Milwaukee. Those two teams are in the top 3 or four teams in the NBA along with Boston. Tonight, Chicago is catching 7-points at the 11-11 Warriors. Granted, the Warriors have been very good at home this season with a 9-1 record and a +11PPG differential, but those numbers are padded with big wins over bad teams. Chicago has the 9th best offensive efficiency ratings on the road this season with a +/- of -2.9PPG. Overall, the Bulls have the 12th best defensive efficiency rating in the league while the Warriors rank 21st and give up 1.137PPP. Off a humiliating loss in Phoenix we like the Bulls to rebound here and keep this game within the spread. |
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12-02-22 | 76ers v. Grizzlies OVER 216.5 | Top | 109-117 | Win | 100 | 8 h 36 m | Show |
ASA Top Play on 10* OVER 216.5 Philadelphia 76ers vs Memphis Grizzlies, 8 PM ET - Both teams are coming off disappointing losses which can largely be attributed to poor offensive play. The 76ers managed just 85-points against the Cavaliers, shooting just 42% overall and 23% from Deep. The Grizzlies turned the ball over 27-times and missed 12-free throws in a loss at Minnesota. We expect both offenses to get back on track here. For the season the Grizzlies have a top 10 offensive efficiency rating overall and when playing at home. The 76ers rank 19th overall in OEFF but have a higher efficiency rating when playing on the road. The 76ers also tend to play faster when away from Philly and give up more points per possession. Memphis has played much faster in their last five games and will want to dictate tempo in this one, forcing the Sixers to also play fast. When Philly is the road team this season those games have averaged 217.2PPG. When the Grizzlies have played at home those contests have averaged 226.9PPG. Let’s not forget that an average NBA game this season has finished with 226 total points which means we need an ‘average’ performance from both teams to cash this ticket. |
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12-02-22 | Appalachian State v. Charlotte UNDER 122.5 | Top | 62-71 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 35 m | Show |
#865/866 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 122.5 Points – Appalachian State vs Charlotte, Friday at 7 PM ET - Low total here for a reason. Two very slow paced teams facing off here and we don’t expect many possessions. Charlotte ranks 362nd (out of 363 teams) in adjusted tempo and App State ranks 260th in that category. Charlotte is 361st in possessions per game and ASU is 179th. The 49ers are coming off a game earlier this week in which they played a very good offensive team, Davidson, who ranks 60th in offensive efficiency and 56th in eFG%. That game went to OT but the score at the end of regulation was 59-59. Now they face an App State offense that ranks 256th in offensive efficiency and 208th in eFG%. Charlotte is far from a great offensive team ranking outside the top 100 in both efficiency and eFG%. Both rank outside the top 200 in 3 point shooting percentage and neither team is adept at offensive rebounding (331st and 286th). Both teams protect the ball committing few turnovers so not many 2nd chance offensive points in this game or extra possessions. We think both teams will struggle to get to 60 here and we’ll take the UNDER. |
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12-02-22 | Akron +12 v. Buffalo | Top | 22-23 | Win | 100 | 23 h 58 m | Show |
#327 ASA TOP PLAY ON Akron +12 over Buffalo, Friday at 1 PM ET - The Bulls were playing for a spot in the MAC Championship game last weekend and with a win over Kent they would have been in. They blew a 14 point lead with under 3:00 minutes to go in the game and then lost in OT. This is a really tough bounce back spot for them even if they need this one to get to 6 wins on the season. It was a meaningless road game for Kent as they were already out of bowl contention and their starting QB Schlee came into that game injured. He only took a few snaps and the Golden FlashThe Flashes played 3 separate QB’s in that game, one of which hadn’t played a snap this season. Even with that, Kent still was able to win the game and outgain Buffalo in the process. The Bulls are catching an Akron team that is playing their best football of the season. Last week the Zips went into Northern Illinois as a 9 point dog and won the game outright 44-12! It wasn’t a fluke as they outgained the Huskies by 250 yards. They have now outgained their last 4 opponents and they’ve shown zero quit as the season comes to an end. Last week the Zips were without their starting QB Irons but their back up Undercuffler, who threw for over 6,000 career yards as a starter at Albany prior to transferring, looked great last week passing for 312 yards and 3 TD’s. Despite their records (Akron 2-9 / Buffalo 5-6) the Zips have very similar overall stats (-1.0 YPP differential to Buffalo’s -1.2 YPP differential / Akron -38 YPG and Buffalo -15 YPG) and we’re getting double digits. Buffalo hasn’t won a game in over a month (October 23 was their last win) and Akron continues to fight with their win last week and 5 of their last 7 losses coming by single digits. Take the points on Friday afternoon. |
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12-01-22 | Bills v. Patriots OVER 43.5 | Top | 24-10 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 48 m | Show |
#301/302 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 43.5 Points – Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - This is the lowest total set on a Buffalo game this season and they only other one that was close was when they faced Pittsburgh in early October and the total was 44.5. The average total set in Buffalo games this season is 49.8 and this one has gotten too low in our opinion. The Bills are 2nd in the NFL averaging 28 PPG and since throwing up a dud vs the Jets a month ago (Bills score 17), Buffalo has put up 89 points over their last 3 games. New England’s defense had a very solid 3 game stretch leading into last week’s game vs Minnesota where they allowed the Vikings to pile up 33 points. However, those 3 games were vs poor offenses with the NY Jets (twice) and Indianapolis. The Bills we be the best offense the Patriots have faced this season and in their 3 meetings last year (one in the playoffs), Buffalo averaged 30 PPG. Defensively Buffalo was great early in the season giving up just 12 PPG over their first 5 contests. However, they’ve been trending down allowing 23 PPG over their last 6 games including 78 points over their last 3 (26 PPG). They will be without their top pass rusher Von Miller in this game. New England has scored at least 22 points in 7 of their last 9 games. As we mentioned, these 2 teams met 3 times last season and the average points scored in those games was 47.5 and that includes a 14-10 game late in the season with terrible wet and windy weather. It’s going to be cold in Boston on Thursday night but no precipitation. With Buffalo favored by 4 here, the projected final score is around 24-20 and we expect both teams to top those totals. Over is the play. |
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12-01-22 | Mavs v. Pistons UNDER 221.5 | Top | 125-131 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 221.5 Dallas Mavericks @ Detroit Pistons, 7 PM ET - The Pistons just allowed 140-points to the Knicks which has forced the oddsmakers to adjust this line higher than it should be. The Mavericks are the slowest paced team in the league and score just 109.4PPG. They will slow things down and keep them from being a high scoring game. Detroit is 15th or basically average in pace. It’s not like the Mavs are great when it comes to offensive efficiency either as they rank 11th in points per possession. Detroit ranks 23rd in points per possession at 1.099PPP. The Mavs are 9th in defensive efficiency and will limit the Pistons scoring opportunities here. Granted Detroit is 2nd to last in DEFF but you can expect Dallas to do their best to manage load minutes for Luka Doncic and the rest of the starters. Detroit recently played a Cavaliers team that is similar to Dallas in many regards and the game finished with 196 total points. Dallas has allowed point to a few good offenses in recent games (Warriors, Bucks, Celtics) but if you remove those teams they have allowed 105 or less in 5 straight games. The Under is the play here. |
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12-01-22 | Creighton +7 v. Texas | Top | 67-72 | Win | 100 | 18 h 9 m | Show |
#751 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Creighton +7 over Texas, Thursday at 7 PM ET - Texas is 5-0 SU this season but they’ve played one of the easiest schedules in the country. They’ve played only 1 team ranked inside the top 180 and 3 of their 5 wins have come vs teams ranked 260th or lower. Their strength of schedule is currently 342nd after 5 games. Their lone top 100 win was here vs Gonzaga in the grand opening of their new arena and they were favored by 2 in that game. Now they are laying 4.5 to 5 points more vs a Creighton team that is every bit as good as Gonzaga this season. The Blue Jays are 6-1 in the season and they’ve played the much tougher schedule facing 3 straight top 30 opponents beating Texas Tech & Arkansas and losing by 2 points to Arizona. They return most of their key players from team that was 23-12 last year and nearly upended eventual National Champion Kansas in the 2nd round of the NCAA despite missing 2 starters (Nembhard and Kalkenbrenner who are both back). They are tough to guard with 5 players averaging at least 12 PPG and they rank in the top 12 nationally in offensive efficiency, eFG%, and 2 point FG%. The Jays are very good in the backcourt which is key here as Texas thrives on creating turnovers (4th nationally) to help create offense yet Creighton doesn’t turn the ball over very much (17th nationally). Creighton should be able to keep Texas off the offensive boards (9th nationally in defensive rebounding) and off the FT line where their opponents have scored just 8% of their total points. This is absolutely a game the Jays can win and we’re getting significant points. They are very well coached and have had a full week off since losing by a bucket to an undefeated Arizona team. Take the points. |
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11-30-22 | Pacers v. Kings -4.5 | Top | 114-137 | Win | 100 | 21 h 55 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Sacramento Kings -4.5 vs. Indiana Pacers, 10:10 PM ET - The Kings opened the season 0-4 with three of those L’s coming at home and it looked like we were going to see another year of the same ole Kings. They’ve rebounded nicely from that slow start to win 10 of their last fifteen games. Included in that streak is a 7-1 SU home record with some impressive wins over the Heat, Cavs, Warriors and Nets. The lone loss in that stretch was at home last time out against the Suns 117-122. Sacramento has the 11th best average point differential at home this season of +4.9PPG. They have the 2nd best offensive efficiency at home behind the Celtics. Indiana is off a big road win over the Lakers and will likely let down here. The Pacers have a negative differential on the road of minus -1.1PPG which is 20th in the NBA. They have a 5-4 SU road record but only one of those victories came against a team with a current winning record and that is the 11-10 Wizards. I’m buying the Kings here and will lay the points. |
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11-30-22 | Middle Tennessee v. St Bonaventure -2.5 | Top | 64-71 | Win | 100 | 18 h 58 m | Show |
#668 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* St Bonaventure -2.5 over Middle Tennessee State, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - This is a really tough spot for MTSU. They have been in Montreal Canada since last Thursday. They played games in Montreal on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. Now just 72 hours after finishing their last game in Canada, they have to play St Bonnies in Western NY. MTSU won all 3 games in Canada so we’re getting some value here with the number because of that. They beat Hofstra, Stephen F Austin, and Montana State with the last game going to the wire winning 72-71 vs a Bobcat team that now has a 3-5 record. The Blue Raiders have played 2 true road games this year losing both by 8 @ Winthrop and by 24 @ Missouri State, both rated lower than this St Bonaventure team. The Bonnies have some great momentum coming into this game after beating Notre Dame on a neutral court last Friday 63-51. So they’ve had 5 full days to get ready for this one which is a much better situation when compared to Middle Tennessee State. STB have a great home court advantage with a 3-0 record this season and 16-2 since the beginning of last season. Their 2 losses this season both came on the road by 4 in OT and by 4 in regulation. This team has surprised early and they are very close to being undefeated. Mark Schmidt is a terrific head coach who has been at St Bonnies since 2008 and has had winning seasons in 12 of the last 13 years. He’ll have his team well prepared and playing great defense as they rank 50th in eFG% defense and 26th in 3 point FG% defense. We expect a tired MTSU team that is simply ready to get home (they stayed in Montreal after their game on Sunday) and the STB defense will wear them down. Lay the small number. |
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11-29-22 | Georgia Tech v. Iowa -15.5 | Top | 65-81 | Win | 100 | 20 h 27 m | Show |
#632 ASA CBB TOP PLAY ON 10* Iowa -15.5 over Georgia Tech, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - Like this spot at home for Iowa after coming off a loss as a 6.5 point favorite vs TCU on Saturday. That game was on a neutral site in Florida. The Hawkeyes shot poorly vs a very good defensive team (TCU) hitting just 43% overall and 18% from beyond the arc, both well below their season averages. We expect those numbers to skyrocket at home tonight where they always shoot well. This season they are 3-0 at home, averaging 100 PPG and hitting 53% of their FG’s. We don’t expect triple digits here but the Hawks have been tough to beat at home winning 22 of their last 25 games and they’ve averaged 89 PPG in those 22 home wins. We just don’t think Georgia Tech can keep up here. They are not a good shooting team ranking 322nd in eFG% and they sit outside the top 285 in both 3 point and 2 point FG%. The Jackets are coming off a win vs a terrible North Alabama team (ranked 328th) that plays zero defense. Tech scored 80 in that game, however prior to that they had averaged just 62 PPG their previous 4 contests. They’ve played one top 60 team this year (Marquette rated 59th) and lost by 24 points on a neutral site. We have Iowa power rated in the top 25 so this will be the best team GT has played this season. The Hawks were just favored by 6.5 and 9 vs TCU & Clemson on a neutral site – both top 65 teams. That means at home they would’ve been favored by 10ish and 13ish vs 2 teams that are much better than Georgia Tech who most are projecting to finish last in the ACC. Despite laying 14, the value is on the home team here. Iowa should be able to put up big points at home as they usually do and unless the Yellow Jackets perform well above expectations, they just won’t score enough to cover this one. |
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11-28-22 | Seattle University +5.5 v. Washington | Top | 66-77 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
#815 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Seattle +5.5 over Washington, Monday at 10 PM ET - Huge game for a really solid Seattle team here getting to play their in-state big brother. These 2 met last season and Washington won by just 8 despite attempting 22 FT’s to Seattle’s 5. Despite that loss, the Redhawks went on to win the WAC title last season and finish with a 23-9 overall record. They return 7 of their top 9 players this season and they’ve started with 5 straight wins. That includes a 12 point win over a very good Portland team who took Michigan State and North Carolina to the wire (lost by 1 & 8) and beat Villanova. They catch the Huskies in a rough spot. Washington just upset St Mary’s in OT in their most recent game but were a bit fortunate as they trailed by 5 with just over 1 minute remaining. The Huskies also start Pac 12 play on Thursday of this week so they very well might be a bit flat here. If they are, they won’t win this game much less cover the 5 points. While Seattle brings back nearly everyone from last year’s team, Washington returns only 1 player that started in last year’s game vs Seattle and only 2 players that played 10 minutes or more. UW already has a 9 point home loss at the hands of Cal Baptist and Seattle will be the 2nd highest rated team they’ve faced this season behind St Mary’s. The Huskies last 4 wins have come by 8, 9, 5, and 4 points and 2 of those teams are currently ranked outside the top 200. Seattle is a very dangerous dog here as they are a very good shooting team (15th nationally in eFG%) and they can score from deep hitting almost 42% of their 3’s on the year (11th nationally). We look for this to be close throughout and we’ll grab the points with Seattle. |
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11-28-22 | Stars v. Blues OVER 6 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -106 | 7 h 37 m | Show |
#9/10 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 6 Goals - Dallas Stars at St Louis Blues, Monday at 8 PM ET - Watching these teams closely in terms of the way they have been playing and we have liked what we have seen in terms of expecting a high-scoring game here. St Louis has now won 8 of 10 games and the Blues and their opponents have combined to score at least 7 goals in 6 of last 7 games. Before their recent 7-game win streak the Blues had lost 8 in a row and in 5 of the last 6 defeats they allowed at least 5 goals. You can see why we are expecting a lot of goals here no matter which way the ice ends up being tilted in this one! Also, the Blues have had 9 home games this season and all but three of them totaled at least 7 goals and one of the three that did not reach 7 did make it to the 6-goal mark and that is the total posted on this game Monday. Dallas is off a 4-1 loss at Colorado but, prior to this, 12 of 13 Stars games heading into that one had totaled at least 6 goals. The Stars have now played 7 road games this month and 6 of them have reached at least the 6-goal mark. We feel we have excellent line value with this total settling in at 6 goals. Dallas' average total in the last 14 games this season has been 7.8 goals per game. The Blues average home game has totaled 7.1 goals per game this season! Look for at least 7 in this one! Over is our play here. |
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11-28-22 | Hornets v. Celtics OVER 225 | Top | 105-140 | Win | 100 | 7 h 13 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 225 Charlotte Hornets vs Boston Celtics, 7:40 PM ET - The Celtics are shooting 40% from deep which ranks 1st in the NBA. They shoot 49% overall which is 4th and they average the most points per game at 120.4PPG. Defensively the Celtics aren’t as good as they’ve been in the past ranking 14th in PPG allowed at 113.3. They also allow opponents to shoot 46.8% (16th) overall and 34.9% from beyond the arc (12th). The Hornets are averaging 109.4PPG which is one of the lower numbers in the league and allowing 114.2PPG which is roughly league average. Charlotte is playing at a faster pace in recent games as they are the 8th fastest team in their last five games. Boston is on a 9-0 Over streak at home when facing a team with a losing road record. Charlotte is on a 6-0 Over run when playing on the road versus a team with a home winning percentage greater than .600. Boston has scored 122 or more points themselves in 7 of their last ten games. This one gets Over the number rather easily. |
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11-27-22 | Florida v. West Virginia +1.5 | Top | 55-84 | Win | 100 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
#788 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* West Virginia +1.5 over Florida, Sunday at 8:30 PM ET - The better team is getting points on a neutral site here. We have WVU rated as 2 points better than Florida right now on a neutral court so we’ll take the value with the Mountaineers. Florida is still working on a new system on both sides of the ball with head coach Golden who came over from San Francisco in the off-season. The Gators are also working in 4 key transfers currently in their top 6 in the rotation. They’ve played 2 top 100 teams this season and lost to both, Xavier and Florida Atlantic. The Gators best win this season is vs a depleted Florida State team that currently has a record of 1-6. WVU is 5-1 on the year with 5 double digit wins and their only loss coming vs Purdue who is playing as well as any team in the country right now (just beat Gonzaga by 18). Head coach Bob Huggins has a deep team this season and he has consistently played 9 or 10 guys which will come in handy playing their 3rd game in 4 days (Florida has also played 3 games in 4 days). They have shot the ball very well this season (25th nationally in eFG%) and their defensive pressure has been tough for teams to handle with WVU ranking 9th nationally in creating turnovers. Florida has decent numbers offensively in regards to turnovers, however they haven’t faced a team ranked in the top 160 in defensive turnover rate. Both these teams played on Friday and we feel the coaching advantage in this situation is with Bob Huggins with short prep time over Golden who is only in his 4th season as a college head coach. Our metrics have WVU better offensively and defensively and they should get some extra possessions due to their defensive pressure. Take the points with West Virginia |
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11-27-22 | Packers v. Eagles UNDER 46.5 | Top | 33-40 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 24 m | Show |
#273/274 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 46.5 Points – Green Bay Packers vs Philadelphia Eagles, Sunday at 8:15 PM ET - Unders have been cash money in the NFL this year hitting at 57% with an average total points scored sitting at 43.8 points. This one is nearly 3 full points above that number and we just don’t see it. Green Bay has struggled offensively all season long. They rank 26th in points scored per game at 18.4 and their games are averaging 40 total points per game. The Pack have scored on just 29% of their offensive possessions this season which is the 2nd worst mark in the NFL behind only Denver. They are facing a Philly defense that has given up 17 points or fewer in 7 of their 10 games this season. On the other side of the ball, the Eagles offense has been trending downward. They have scored just 38 total points in their last 2 games while averaging just 289 YPG (vs Washington & Indy). Both teams will be looking to run often here as the defensive weakness of each team is stopping the run. Philly runs the ball 51% of the time (5th most in the NFL) and GB is not very good at stopping the run. The Packers have leaned on the running game more as of late rolling up over 200 yards rushing in 2 of their last 4 games. Running the ball will eat clock and shorten this game. Green Bay is one of the slowest paced teams in the NFL (29th) and the Eagles are middle of the pack in that category. The extended forecast calls for rain in Philly on Sunday and we like this one to land Under the total. |
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11-27-22 | Mavs v. Bucks -6.5 | Top | 115-124 | Win | 100 | 7 h 59 m | Show |
ASA NBA TOP PLAY ON 10* Milwaukee Bucks -6.5 vs. Dallas Mavericks, 8:10 PM ET - We are not as high on the Mavericks and most prognosticators and like this spot to fade them. Dallas is off a game last night in Toronto, a 5-point loss as a -2.5 point favorite. The game before that they lost at Boston +5.5 points. In the game against the Celtics the Mavs trailed big for most of the game before making it respectable late. Last night Luka Doncic played 42 minutes so don’t be surprised if they manage his workload here. Dallas is 1-6 SU away from home with a negative differential of -4.7PPG. Milwaukee is 10-2 SU at home with a +/- of +9PPG. The Mavs 26th ranked scoring offense at 108.7PPG will have a tough time putting up points against a Bucks team that allows the 4th fewest points per game at 107.2PPG. |
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11-27-22 | Falcons +4 v. Commanders | Top | 13-19 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 25 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Atlanta Falcons +4 vs. Washington Commanders, 1 PM ET - It’s interesting to note that despite Washington having a winning record and the Falcons a losing one, their +/- point differential is nearly the same. In fact, Atlanta ranks higher than Washington in overall DVOA rankings. Three of the Falcons 6 losses this season have come by 4 or less points, four of six have come by 6-points or less. Washington is coming off a 13-point win over Houston after a huge upset in Philadelphia the week before. On the season the Commanders have six wins but 4 of those have come by 6-points or less. In terms of yards per play, the Falcons average 5.6YPP offensively and give up 6.0YPP. Washington averages just 5.5YPP on offense and gives up 5.1YPP. The Falcons ball control offense that features a rushing attack averaging 159.3RYPG should be able to keep this game close throughout. Washington is 6-4-1 ATS their last eleven when coming off a win but their average Margin of Victory in those games is -2.4PPG. Atlanta is 9-6 ATS their last 15 when coming off a loss with a negative differential of -1.1PPG. This one shapes up to be a field goal game for either team so we’ll grab the points. |
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ASA ALL Sports Top Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-04-23 | TCU v. Baylor -5 | Top | 88-87 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 26 m | Show |
01-04-23 | Thunder v. Magic -2 | Top | 115-126 | Win | 100 | 7 h 57 m | Show |
01-03-23 | Wizards v. Bucks OVER 228 | Top | 113-123 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
01-03-23 | Coyotes v. Panthers OVER 6.5 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 105 | 5 h 59 m | Show |
01-03-23 | Nebraska v. Michigan State UNDER 132 | Top | 56-74 | Win | 100 | 18 h 2 m | Show |
01-03-23 | Marquette v. St. John's +2.5 | Top | 96-85 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 54 m | Show |
01-02-23 | Nuggets v. Wolves +2 | Top | 111-124 | Win | 100 | 7 h 11 m | Show |
01-02-23 | Utah v. Penn State OVER 53 | Top | 21-35 | Win | 100 | 15 h 9 m | Show |
01-01-23 | Colts v. Giants -5.5 | Top | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
01-01-23 | Bears v. Lions -6 | Top | 10-41 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
12-31-22 | Heat v. Jazz UNDER 226 | Top | 126-123 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 29 m | Show |
12-31-22 | TCU v. Michigan -7.5 | Top | 51-45 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
12-31-22 | Florida International v. North Texas UNDER 127.5 | Top | 57-72 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
12-31-22 | Western Kentucky v. Middle Tennessee -5.5 | Top | 60-65 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 51 m | Show |
12-30-22 | Heat v. Nuggets UNDER 224.5 | Top | 119-124 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 59 m | Show |
12-30-22 | NC State v. Clemson -1.5 | Top | 64-78 | Win | 100 | 13 h 27 m | Show |
12-30-22 | Pittsburgh v. UCLA -7.5 | Top | 37-35 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 38 m | Show |
12-29-22 | Rockets v. Mavs UNDER 225.5 | Top | 114-129 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
12-29-22 | Oklahoma v. Florida State -9.5 | Top | 32-35 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 32 m | Show |
12-28-22 | Boise State v. Nevada UNDER 131 | Top | 72-74 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 28 m | Show |
12-28-22 | Bucks v. Bulls UNDER 231.5 | Top | 113-119 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 19 m | Show |
12-28-22 | Kansas +3 v. Arkansas | Top | 53-55 | Win | 100 | 90 h 24 m | Show |
12-27-22 | Oklahoma State v. Wisconsin UNDER 43 | Top | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 72 h 36 m | Show |
12-27-22 | Hawks -1.5 v. Pacers | Top | 114-129 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
12-26-22 | Chargers -4 v. Colts | Top | 20-3 | Win | 100 | 46 h 35 m | Show |
12-25-22 | Bucks v. Celtics UNDER 225 | Top | 118-139 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 8 m | Show |
12-25-22 | Broncos -2.5 v. Rams | Top | 14-51 | Loss | -120 | 18 h 5 m | Show |
12-24-22 | Commanders v. 49ers UNDER 37.5 | Top | 20-37 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 16 m | Show |
12-24-22 | Lions v. Panthers +2.5 | Top | 23-37 | Win | 100 | 17 h 28 m | Show |
12-23-22 | Pacers v. Heat -6 | Top | 111-108 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
12-23-22 | Clippers v. 76ers -3 | Top | 114-119 | Win | 100 | 21 h 17 m | Show |
12-23-22 | Wake Forest v. Missouri OVER 58.5 | Top | 27-17 | Loss | -110 | 46 h 45 m | Show |
12-22-22 | Spurs v. Pelicans -7.5 | Top | 117-126 | Win | 100 | 23 h 2 m | Show |
12-22-22 | Air Force v. Baylor OVER 43 | Top | 30-15 | Win | 100 | 23 h 1 m | Show |
12-22-22 | Seattle University v. Utah State -9.5 | Top | 56-84 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
12-21-22 | South Alabama v. Western Kentucky OVER 57 | Top | 23-44 | Win | 100 | 24 h 9 m | Show |
12-21-22 | Magic v. Rockets UNDER 224 | Top | 116-110 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
12-21-22 | Clemson v. Georgia Tech +1.5 | Top | 79-66 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
12-20-22 | Bulls v. Heat UNDER 223.5 | Top | 113-103 | Win | 100 | 9 h 34 m | Show |
12-20-22 | Eastern Michigan +4 v. San Jose State | Top | 41-27 | Win | 100 | 33 h 17 m | Show |
12-19-22 | Texas-Arlington v. San Francisco UNDER 137.5 | Top | 68-63 | Win | 100 | 16 h 36 m | Show |
12-19-22 | Rams +7 v. Packers | Top | 12-24 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 34 m | Show |
12-19-22 | Oilers -117 v. Predators | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -117 | 7 h 4 m | Show |
12-18-22 | Bengals v. Bucs UNDER 45 | Top | 34-23 | Loss | -110 | 43 h 1 m | Show |
12-18-22 | Magic v. Celtics -9.5 | Top | 95-92 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 43 m | Show |
12-18-22 | Detroit v. Eastern Michigan OVER 157 | Top | 77-79 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
12-17-22 | Boise State -10.5 v. North Texas | Top | 35-32 | Loss | -108 | 25 h 56 m | Show |
12-17-22 | Dolphins v. Bills -7 | Top | 29-32 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 18 m | Show |
12-17-22 | Mavs v. Cavs -4.5 | Top | 99-100 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 10 m | Show |
12-17-22 | Rice v. Southern Miss UNDER 45.5 | Top | 24-38 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 19 m | Show |
12-17-22 | North Texas v. Massachusetts UNDER 127.5 | Top | 62-44 | Win | 100 | 17 h 15 m | Show |
12-16-22 | Missouri State v. Oral Roberts UNDER 145.5 | Top | 77-80 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 40 m | Show |
12-16-22 | Warriors v. 76ers OVER 222 | Top | 106-118 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
12-16-22 | Troy v. UTSA OVER 55.5 | Top | 18-12 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 3 m | Show |
12-15-22 | Suns v. Clippers UNDER 218.5 | Top | 111-95 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
12-15-22 | 49ers v. Seahawks +3 | Top | 21-13 | Loss | -100 | 26 h 55 m | Show |
12-14-22 | Wolves v. Clippers UNDER 223.5 | Top | 88-99 | Win | 100 | 16 h 3 m | Show |
12-14-22 | UCLA v. Maryland -120 | Top | 87-60 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 34 m | Show |
12-14-22 | Red Wings v. Wild -1.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 120 | 13 h 4 m | Show |
12-13-22 | Celtics v. Lakers OVER 233.5 | Top | 122-118 | Win | 100 | 26 h 6 m | Show |
12-13-22 | Marshall v. NC-Greensboro +4.5 | Top | 67-75 | Win | 100 | 24 h 24 m | Show |
12-12-22 | Cavs -5.5 v. Spurs | Top | 111-112 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 9 m | Show |
12-11-22 | Bucs v. 49ers UNDER 37.5 | Top | 7-35 | Loss | -110 | 44 h 5 m | Show |
12-11-22 | Chiefs v. Broncos UNDER 44 | Top | 34-28 | Loss | -108 | 44 h 54 m | Show |
12-10-22 | Mavs v. Bulls -120 | Top | 115-144 | Win | 100 | 24 h 17 m | Show |
12-10-22 | IUPU Ft Wayne v. Missouri State UNDER 134 | Top | 65-61 | Win | 100 | 23 h 17 m | Show |
12-10-22 | Eastern Washington v. South Dakota State -8 | Top | 76-77 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 28 m | Show |
12-09-22 | Bucks v. Mavs UNDER 226 | Top | 106-105 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
12-08-22 | Raiders v. Rams OVER 43.5 | Top | 16-17 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 39 m | Show |
12-08-22 | UMass Lowell v. Massachusetts -2 | Top | 85-80 | Loss | -113 | 14 h 7 m | Show |
12-07-22 | Coyotes v. Oilers OVER 6.5 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
12-07-22 | Pittsburgh +4 v. Vanderbilt | Top | 74-75 | Win | 100 | 16 h 16 m | Show |
12-07-22 | Pacers v. Wolves -3.5 | Top | 115-121 | Win | 100 | 15 h 19 m | Show |
12-06-22 | Mavs v. Nuggets -4.5 | Top | 116-115 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 24 m | Show |
12-06-22 | Illinois +4.5 v. Texas | Top | 85-78 | Win | 100 | 28 h 42 m | Show |
12-05-22 | Suns v. Mavs UNDER 221.5 | Top | 111-130 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 29 m | Show |
12-05-22 | Saints +3.5 v. Bucs | Top | 16-17 | Win | 100 | 20 h 19 m | Show |
12-04-22 | Jets +3 v. Vikings | Top | 22-27 | Loss | -114 | 22 h 49 m | Show |
12-04-22 | Broncos v. Ravens UNDER 39.5 | Top | 9-10 | Win | 100 | 21 h 27 m | Show |
12-03-22 | Blazers +4.5 v. Jazz | Top | 116-111 | Win | 100 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
12-03-22 | Rockets v. Warriors OVER 232 | Top | 101-120 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
12-03-22 | Clemson -7.5 v. North Carolina | Top | 39-10 | Win | 100 | 31 h 55 m | Show |
12-03-22 | Wisconsin v. Marquette UNDER 136 | Top | 80-77 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 42 m | Show |
12-02-22 | Bulls +7.5 v. Warriors | Top | 111-119 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
12-02-22 | 76ers v. Grizzlies OVER 216.5 | Top | 109-117 | Win | 100 | 8 h 36 m | Show |
12-02-22 | Appalachian State v. Charlotte UNDER 122.5 | Top | 62-71 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 35 m | Show |
12-02-22 | Akron +12 v. Buffalo | Top | 22-23 | Win | 100 | 23 h 58 m | Show |
12-01-22 | Bills v. Patriots OVER 43.5 | Top | 24-10 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 48 m | Show |
12-01-22 | Mavs v. Pistons UNDER 221.5 | Top | 125-131 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
12-01-22 | Creighton +7 v. Texas | Top | 67-72 | Win | 100 | 18 h 9 m | Show |
11-30-22 | Pacers v. Kings -4.5 | Top | 114-137 | Win | 100 | 21 h 55 m | Show |
11-30-22 | Middle Tennessee v. St Bonaventure -2.5 | Top | 64-71 | Win | 100 | 18 h 58 m | Show |
11-29-22 | Georgia Tech v. Iowa -15.5 | Top | 65-81 | Win | 100 | 20 h 27 m | Show |
11-28-22 | Seattle University +5.5 v. Washington | Top | 66-77 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
11-28-22 | Stars v. Blues OVER 6 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -106 | 7 h 37 m | Show |
11-28-22 | Hornets v. Celtics OVER 225 | Top | 105-140 | Win | 100 | 7 h 13 m | Show |
11-27-22 | Florida v. West Virginia +1.5 | Top | 55-84 | Win | 100 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
11-27-22 | Packers v. Eagles UNDER 46.5 | Top | 33-40 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 24 m | Show |
11-27-22 | Mavs v. Bucks -6.5 | Top | 115-124 | Win | 100 | 7 h 59 m | Show |
11-27-22 | Falcons +4 v. Commanders | Top | 13-19 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 25 m | Show |