ASA top play on 10* UNDER 206.5 Dallas Mavericks vs Minnesota Timberwolves, 8:30 PM ET - We are in the minority on the Under here, but we don’t see these two teams getting to 200+ points. The T’Wolves defense has been one of, if not the best in the league the entire season. The Wolves allowed 1.09 points per possession this season, which was the best in the NBA. They faced the Suns and Nuggets in the playoffs who were both top 9 in offensive efficiency ratings this season and still allowed just 1.095PPP. Minnesota was locked in defensively against the Nuggets in 4 of the seven games in that series, holding Denver to 99 or less points. In three of those games, they limited the Nuggets to 90 or less points. Minnesota is also playing at a much slower rate in the playoffs with 93 possessions per game compared to 98 in the regular season. The Mavericks are also playing at a slower tempo going from attempting 89.7 field goals per game in the regular season to 83.7 in the Playoffs. Defensively the Mavs became a much better unit down the stretch of the regular season with a defensive Net rating of 105.7 in their last ten games. In the playoffs the Mavs are allowing 1.105-points per possession which is 5th best among the postseason teams and only 1 spot worse than Minnesota. Dallas is coming off two series against the Clippers and Thunder who both ranked top 4 during the regular season in offensive efficiency. Minnesota was 16th in OEFF during the regular season. Game 1’s of the Conference Finals that have this low of a posted total have stayed Under in 4 of the last five. We like UNDER here.

#203805/203806 ASA PLAY ON Over 3 Goals – ADO Den Hag vs Excelsior Rotterdam, Wednesday at 12:45 ET - This one is in the Eredivisie playoffs to see who will be in the top league in the Netherlands next season. That means Excelsior Rotterdam is fighting for survival in the league while ADO Den Hag is looking for promotion after already winning in this post-season just to get to this point. Even though Excelsior Rotterdam is the stronger team overall, ADO Den Hag is favored at home here. The home field edge and current form has a lot to do with that but we expect the visitors to score well here but also concede a couple goals as well. Excelsior Rotterdam allowed 2 goals per game in the regular season. Per our computer math model, a 2-2 draw here has good probability as well as solid probability for a 3-2 final. That being said, the over is the play in this one. We will take the over here.

ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -9.5 over Indiana Pacers, Tuesday 8 PM ET - In Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals we expect a blowout win by the home team Celtics. Boston is 41-6 SU at home this season with the best average Margin of Victory at +14.6PPG. Going back another full season the Celtics stand 78-21 SU at home +11.5PPG. Boston opened their series up against the Heat in the first round with a 20-point win. In the first game of round 2 versus the Cavs the C’s won by 25. The Celtics big advantage in this match up in their defense. Indiana can’t simply outscore their opponent in this round as the Celtics were better than the Pacers in offensive efficiency this season. Defensively it’s not close as Boston had the 3rd best defensive efficiency rating compared to Indiana who ranked 24th. Indiana is a great story in the playoffs but let’s face it, they beat a Bucks team without Giannis and Lillard missed 2 games and wasn’t 100%. The Pacers then faced a Knicks team without 3 regular season starters and then Hart and Brunson both got hurt. Indiana was 23-26 SU on the road this season and have a short turnaround here after that brutally tough 7-game series with the Knicks. When playing with a rest advantage the Celtics are 26-3 SU this season, 16-12-1 ATS with those wins coming by +14.8PPG. Indiana was 7-10 ATS when playing with a rest disadvantage this season. Boston in a Game 1 runaway win!

#920 ASA PLAY ON Houston Astros -1.5 on the Run Line (-105) over Los Angeles Angels, Tuesday at 8:10 PM ET - The Angels rallied from a 6-1 deficit yesterday in a 9-7 win.  The Astros were 9-2 last 11 games prior to yesterday's loss.  Houston is 3-0 L3 games when they are coming off a loss.  The Angels are 0-3 L3 games when they have entered a game on a winning streak of 2 or more games.  Los Angeles is starting Griffin Canning here and he is 0-4 with a 6.64 ERA when pitching on the road this season.  The Astros are starting Cristan Javier here and he is 3-0 with an 0.75 ERA in his 4 starts at home this season.  Javier is 33-18 with a 3.55 ERA in his MLB career.  The Angels continued their big success (7-2 YTD) against left-handed starters with yesterday's upset win.  However, LA is 12-27 against right-handed starters this season.  The Astros have the bullpen edge here as well with an ERA ranking middle of MLB while the Angels bullpen ERA is among the worst in the major league.  Houston is hitting .274 in home games this season and that ranks at the top of the majors!  Big edges in this one and a home blowout is our call.  We are getting some nice value in laying -1.5 runs in this one and getting a price in the -105 range with the Astros.  Great spot to grab the solid value with the stronger team at a fair price and -1.5 runs!  Lay it! 

ASA WNBA play on OVER 169 Dallas Wings at Atlanta Dream, Tuesday 7:30 PM ET - This is a rematch from last season’s playoff meeting when the Wings eliminated the Dream 2-1 in the postseason. In the first two regular season meetings these two teams produced total points of 163 and 158. Late in the season and in the playoffs, they combined for 171, 176 and 175 total points. We are betting the late season trend from a year ago carries over here. Atlanta has played in two higher scoring games to start the season, both Overs, while scoring 92 and 85 points offensively. The Dream have the 3rd best offensive efficiency rating in the WNBA and best overall EFG% at 52.6%. Defensively you will find the Dream in the bottom half of the league in defensive Net rating at 101.8. Atlanta is right around league average in pace of play. Dallas is 1-1 on O/U’s this season with a pair of games against the Chicago Sky. In the season opener the Wings put up 87 points on 45% shooting overall and 33% from beyond the arc. In Game 2 they managed only 74 points on 35% shooting overall, but the good news is they made seven 3-pointers. The Wings are the 2nd fastest paced team in the WNBA currently after being the 3rd fastest a season ago. Dallas had the 3rd best offensive Net rating a season ago but were bottom of the league in defensive Net rating. The oddsmakers opened this line too low and it was immediately bet up to the current number, but there is still value with an Over wager.

#208061/208062 ASA PLAY ON Under 2 Goals – Velez Sarsfield vs Newell's Old Boys, Tuesday at 7 ET - This one being played in Argentine Liga Profesional de Fútbol action. Velez Sarsfield has allowed only 4 goals in 7 matches at home while Newell's Old Boys have allowed just 3 goals in 7 matches on the road.  This one absolutely has the makings of a 1-0 type of battle if even that. A scoreless draw has a shot here given the style of play each can be expected to employ here. 4 of the last 5 meetings have been decided by a final score of 1-0 and we expect another one of those defensive gems to play out in this one Tuesday evening down in Argentina. We will take the under in this one.

ASA top play on 10* Connecticut Sun -4 at Indiana Fever, 7 PM ET - These two teams met in the opener with the Sun favored by -6.5 points at home over the Fever. Connecticut won that game 92-71 on 48% shooting overall, 43% from the 3-point line, were +2 in rebounds and had 10 less turnovers. It's a small sample size but the Fever have the worse Defensive Net rating in the league at 115.9 and the worst overall Net rating of minus -28.7. Caitlyn Clark is obviously a very special talent offensively, but she hasn't improved the Fever's defense which was 11th of out twelve teams a year ago. The Sun were the 2nd best defensive team in the WNBA a year ago and currently rank 3rd in DNR at 90.8. Connecticut has a positive Net rating of +17.8, are 2-0 SU this season with wins of +19 and +7. The Sun were 14-6 SU on the road last season, the Fever were 6-14 SU at home. The Sun have now beaten this Indiana team 9 straight times with the three most recent coming by 16, 17 and 19-points. Lay it with the road favorite.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 207.5 Indiana Pacers at NY Knicks, 3:30 PM ET - The value in this number is obvious as the last time these two teams met on this floor the O/U was set at 217.5. We are literally 10-full points lower now and will have to step in with an Over wager. One of these two teams has scored 116 or more points in every game of this series. We have had four games where one of the two put up 120 or more points. Even with one of the two getting blown out in a game they have still combined to score more than this O/U number in every game. They are attempting 173.5 field goals per game which is high by playoff standards. In fact, in the regular season the average FGA’s per game was slightly higher than 177 and those games averaged over 228 total points per game. New York is averaging nearly 112PPG in this series, the Pacers are averaging 112.8PPG. Both teams are shooting well with the Pacers making 51.5% of their shots overall, 40.9% from beyond the arc. New York is hitting 46.9% of their field goal attempts and 38.2% from Deep. Historically, Game 7’s are Under bets but this number has been over-adjusted and we like the value with an Over play.

ASA WNBA play on #616 Washington Mystics +5.5 vs Seattle Storm, 3 PM ET - The Storm have underachieved this season with an 0-2 ATS record as they’ve been overpriced in both games this season. The Storm were favored by -7.5 points in the season opener and lost by 13 outright. In Game 2 of the season, they were favored by -1.5 at Minnesota and lost again by 9-points. Washington is the exact reverse. The Mystic are 0-2 SU but have covered both games of the season against two of the leagues better teams in New York and Connecticut. Washington played the Liberty extremely well in the season opener losing by just 5-points at home as a +11.5-point underdog. On Friday they traveled to Connecticut to face the Sun and lost by 7 as an 8-point pooch. Last season the Mystic beat this Storm team three times by +7, +6 and +7. The wrong team is favored here and we like the host to win this game outright.

ASA top play on 10* Dallas Mavericks -3.5 vs Oklahoma City Thunder, 8 PM ET - We’ve clearly watched every second of every game in the playoffs (and regular season for that matter of fact) and we were surprised at the lack of urgency displayed by the Thunder at home in Game 5. Shai Gilgeous Alexander can only do so much, and we are finding out the young supporting cast of OKC may not be up for the task. The Mavs Luka Doncic looked infinitely better in the last game after struggling through several games with nagging injuries. Doncic posted a triple-double with 31-points, 11-assists and 10-rebounds in the Mavericks G5 win. The Thunder won the previous meeting on this court but Doncic and Irving both played well below standards with a combined 27-points, 19-assists and 13-rebounds. Dallas has been active on the boards in this series (Gafford + Lively) with a 52% rebound percentage compared to the Thunders 47.3%. They also have the better overall EFG% of the two teams in this round of 52.6% versus 47.3%. OKC is not getting enough scoring out of role players Jalen Williams (43% shooting/17PPG in series) and Luguentz Dort (34.5% FG/10PPG). All of the previously mentioned stats on Willaims and Dort are below their season averages. With Luka looking more healthy and the Mavs at home where they are 28-18 SU this season with an average MOV of +3.7PPG, we like Dallas to win and move on.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 166.5 Chicago Sky at Dallas Wings, 8 PM ET - We are going to see a higher scoring game here between the Sky and Wings and like an Over wager on this WNBA game. These same two teams just met the other night on this floor and cashed an Over ticket for us when they combined for 166 total points. The O/U number on that game was 161.5 at closing so the oddsmaker have adjusted. But have they adjusted enough? Not according to our numbers. In the game on Wednesday night the Sky had a poor shooting night at 39% overall and made just 5 of 17 3-pointers. They did however attempt 74 field goals which is well over the league average of 68.3 a year ago. Dallas shot 45% as a team and 33% from Deep. They attempted 82 field goals so both teams were willing and able to get shots up. The Sky were 3rd in EFG% a year ago so we are betting they make more shots on Saturday. Not to mention, Dallas was a lower tier defensive net rating team last season. This was a very high scoring series a year ago with the two teams combining for 200, 193 and 182 total points in the three meetings. We know for sure the Wings want to get out in transition and push tempo as they averaged 98.21 possessions per game last season, 3rd most in the WNBA. Chicago was slower last season, ranking 8th in pace of play with 96.18 possessions per game. Both of these teams were below average in defensive net rating a season ago with the Sky at 103.5, the Wings right below them at 103.5. Dallas had the 3rd best offensive net rating a year ago, had the 3rd highest scoring average at 87.9PPG, but also gave up 84.9PPG, 9th most. We are betting the tempo is fast in this one and we easily get enough FG attempts to cash an Over!

ASA WNBA play on Minnesota Lynx +1.5 vs Seattle Storm, 9:30 PM ET - These two teams met in Seattle in the season opener for each team and the Lynx came out on top 83-70 as a +7.5-point underdog. We like Minnesota to win again and don’t feel they should be the home dog here. The Lynx played an all-around good game in Seattle with the difference being their defense as they held the Storm to 37% shooting overall and 11% from beyond the arc. Minnesota shot 45% overall and made 7 of 24 3-pointers for 29%. The Storm were the last team in the WNBA in offensive Net rating and last in EFG% at 47.2%. Minnesota was better in terms of ONR last season than the Storm and slightly worse in defensive Net rating. The Lynx were respectable at home last season with a 9-11 SU record compared to the Storm who were 7-13 SU on the road. Seattle’s shooting woes in the first game of the season is a direct correlation to last year’s lack of shooting success as they were last in the league in team FG% at .410. Minnesota has beaten the Storm outright in 4 of the last five meetings overall and also cashed the money in 4 of five. The wrong team is favored here. Take the Lynx!

ASA top play on NY Knicks +6.5 vs. Indiana Pacers, 8:30 PM ET - We expect this game to go down to the wire and will gladly take the points with the Knicks here. The Knicks (+6) were recently blown out on this court 89-121 in Game 4 so why isn’t the line adjusted slightly higher for this game. New York is the tougher team, they have played in more close games and have a Star in Jalen Brunson who can carry a team. The Pacers don’t have a player like Brunson as Haliburton is still coming into his own. Indiana is 17-16-1 ATS as a home favorite this season or 51.5%. New York is 14-14-1 ATS as a road dog with a negative differential in those games of minus -2.7PPG. Two key factors in efficiency ratings are rebounding and free throws and the Knicks have dominated those two categories. The Knicks are attempting 24 free throws per game in this series compared to just 16.8 by Indiana. New York is also plus nearly +7 more rebounds per game with nearly 4 of those per game coming offensively. I’m betting the moment is too big for the young Pacers and New York covers this spread.

#904 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 on the Run Line (-110) over Washington Nationals, Friday at 6:40 PM ET - The Phillies are at home and off a home loss last night in a game they blew a late lead and lost in extra innings. It was a sloppy ending to an otherwise strong stretch of 3 straight wins over the Mets. Grabbing the Phillies off a loss has been a cash cow this season as the Phillies are 11-1 the last 12 times they have entered a game off a loss. Also, 16 of the last 20 Phillies wins have been by 2 or more runs! So Philadelphia is in a great bounce back spot and also likely to win big. The Nationals come into this game having lost 4 of 5 games and they have scored an average of only 1 run the 4 losses! Washington is hitting only .221 on the road this season which is 2nd to LAST in the NL as only the Marlins are hitting worse. The Phillies are hitting .264 in evening games which is 2nd only to the Dodgers in all of MLB this season! Wheeler gets the start for Philadelphia here and he is coming off a rare tougher start but that was on the road and means bounce back time here! Wheeler has a 1.44 ERA in home games this season and has held opponents to a .167 batting average in his 5 home starts while striking out 44 in 31 innings! The Nationals start Jake Irvin here and he has pitched better of late but he has had some tougher starts against stronger hitting teams. Above, we talked about the Phillies being second to only the Dodgers in team batting average in evening games this season. Well, LA got to Irvin for 6 earned runs in less than 5 innings the last time he faced them. Also, Irvin gave up 4 earned runs in 6 innings when the Phillies faced him earlier this season. Irvin was 2-5 with a 5.43 ERA last year in evening action in his rookie season. This year he also has a higher ERA in night games (4.86 ERA) than day games. The Nationals are just 6-11 against teams with a winning record this season. The Phillies have been one of the best teams in baseball and are in an 11-1 situation. Also, 16 of 22 Nationals losses this season have been by 2 or more runs. Great spot to grab the solid value with the much stronger team at a fair price and laying the 1.5 runs! Lay it for a Top Play!

#201282 ASA PLAY ON Fiorentina PK-130 over Napoli, Friday at 2:45 ET - This one in Italian Serie A. This is a value spot for the home team on the goal-line in this one. With his line a PK-130 that means a draw would be a push. But, in this case, we are certainly expecting a win for Fiorentina but it is nice to have that added value with this line. Fiorentina has been the hotter team of late plus they have the home field edge here plus Napoli is going to be without star striker Viktor Osimhen. That hurts the attacking ability of the visitors in this one. Also, Fiorentina has been hot in Serie A action with a 3-1 last 4 games and only one loss last 5 games. Napoli has just one win last 10 games. Tremendous value with the goal line when you consider these numbers and the fact the fact the road team is without a key player they rely on when it comes to the attack! Take Fiorentina on Friday afternoon.

ASA top play on 10* Denver Nuggets ML +115 over Minnesota Timberwolves, 8:30 PM ET - When will the NBA be forced by legal sports betting to start disclosing injury news sooner? In Game 4 it was obviously a shock to everyone when Mike Conley didn’t play for the Wolves. His absence was key in the Wolves loss and it showed in the 2nd quarter when Minnesota turned it over 9 times. The Nuggets have made some great adjustments since the first two games and employed a double-team defensive scheme in Game 4 on Anthony Edwards. Denver simply told the Wolves that someone other than ANT needed to beat them and nobody on the T’Wolves roster responded. Consider this, the Nuggets had an offensive Net rating in the regular season of 119.1 which was 4th best in the league. The Wolves had one of the best defensive Net ratings at 109.9. In the last three games the Nuggets offensive Net rating is 121.4. Overshadowed by the Jokic/Nuggets offense has been solid defensive play that has held the Wolves to 90, 107 and 97 points in the past three games and has a defensive Net rating of 95.7. Anthony Edwards is incredible but even he can’t carry the entire scoring load for the Wolves and Karl Anthony Towns just doesn’t show up in big moments. It’s really hard to beat a team 4 times in a row but we expect Denver to end the series tonight.

ASA WNBA play on NY Liberty -7 vs Indiana Fever, 7 PM ET - This is a great spot to back the Liberty and fade an over-valued Fever team with rookie sensation Caitlyn Clark. Clark and the Fever lost their opener against Connecticut (we were on the Suns in that game too) in blowout fashion 71-92. The Fever attempted only 50 field goals in the game compared to 66 for the Sun and they turned it over 25 times. New York is coming off a 5-point win at Washington but didn’t play well as they were favored by -11.5 and needed some 4th quarter magic from Laney-Hamilton to pull out the victory. Indiana had a negative point differential of minus 4PPG last season and were 6-14 SU at home, 13-27 SU overall. The Fever didn’t get off to a great start last season with a 1-3 record in May. Clark clearly is a HUGE addition, but she is a horrible defender and Indiana won’t improve on that end of the court with her in the lineup. Indiana was last in the league in overall defensive net rating and last in 3PT% D allowing opponents to make 37.53% of their attempts. In comparison, the Liberty allowed the fourth fewest PPG in the WNBA at 80.6PPG and had the 3rd best defensive Net rating. NY had the 2nd best Net rating in the WNBA at +10.3, the Fever had the 9th worst at -4.4. The Liberty were one of only 4 teams in the league a year ago that had a positive scoring differential. New York’s average Margin of Victory was 2nd in the league at +8.6PPG and they won 17 of 20 road games. NY beat this Indiana team 4 times last season, all by 8+ points, 3 by double-digits. We like the Liberty big in this one.

Oklahoma City Thunder -2 1st HALF vs Dallas Mavericks OR you can play **the game at OKC -4** for those of you who do not have access to 1st HALF lines. REGULAR SEASON 1ST HALF RESULTS... During the regular season the Thunder were 49-32 SU in the 1st half of games with an average +/- of +3.7PPG. At home the Thunder were 27-14 SU. Dallas during the regular season was 37-44 SU with an average +/- of +1.0PPG. On the road they were 18-21 SU. In the Playoffs the Thunder are 5-2 SU in the 1st half of games, the Mavs are 5-4 SU. WHEN IF COMES TO NET RATINGS… During the regular season the Thunder had the 3rd best Net rating differential in the 1st half of games at a positive +7.61. Dallas had the 13th best 1st half Net rating at +2.6. In the playoffs the Thunder have the 5th best overall Net differential rating, the Mavs are 9th. SERIES THUS FAR... The Thunder have been up at halftime in 3 of the four games in this series. **The Mavs look like they are wearing down and we like a big first half effort from OKC in front of their home crowd.**For those unable to play the 1st HALF line:

ASA play on Oklahoma City Thunder -4 vs. Dallas Mavericks, 9:30 PM ET - We will side with the home team Thunder and Shai Gilgeous Alexander over the Mavs and the injured Luka Doncic. The Thunder won the opener of this series at home 117-95. Then the young Thunder found out what playoff basketball is all about and dropped Game 2 at home and Game 3 in Dallas. Then OKC found their confidence and won the critical Game 4 on the Mavs home court. This OKC team has one of the best home courts in the NBA and stands 36-9 SU in this venue. The +12.8PPG average point differential at home is the 2nd largest number in the league. OKC has better overall offensive and defensive Net ratings in the postseason and are 3-1 SU on their home court. SGA is healthy and Luka clearly is not. Irving was a no-show in the last game with 9-points. We like the Thunder to win this home game by 8+ points.

#9/10 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 6.5 Goals +110 - Colorado Avalanche at Dallas Stars, Wednesday at 8 PM ET - Avalanche are down 3-1 in this series so this is it. If you look at Colorado's road games since early last month, the scores have included a 5-2 loss and a 4-3 loss in OT and 7-6 and 5-3. They also have 4 road wins in this stretch too and those scores were 5-2 and 4-3 in OT and another 5-2 and a 6-3. You notice some trends here? Goals have been the story! Colorado has scored very well on the road but has struggled to stop teams when traveling. In fact, the struggle to stop teams has included the Stars both at home and in Dallas in this series. That said, we look for the goals to fly here. The Avalanche have to go for it here down 3-1 in this series and if you look at all their wins in this post-season, the offense has fueled those victories. They have averaged 5 goals in the 5 victories! In fact, overall in this post-season, Colorado has averaged 4 goals scored per game. We just can't see Dallas slowing down in the offensive zone here either. The Stars have proven they have some match-up edges and with Nichushkin being out for the Avalanche, the edges are even a little more pronounced. There will be no quit in this Colorado team however and we see both clubs having a great shot of reaching the 3-goal mark here. Dallas has scored at least 3 goals in all the games in this series and has averaged 4 goals per game during this stretch. Based on all of the above, this is the perfect set-up for a back and forth 4-3 type affair. We expect at least 7 goals in this one and like the added value here of working with a posted total of 6.5 at plus money (+105/+110) in this one! Over is our play here

ASA top play on 10* OVER 160.5 Chicago Sky at Dallas Wings, 8 PM ET - We are going to see a higher scoring game here between the Sky and Wings and like an Over wager on this WNBA game. This was a very high scoring series a year ago with the two teams combining for 200, 193 and 182 total points in the three meetings. We know for sure the Wings want to get out in transition and push tempo as they averaged 98.21 possessions per game last season, 3rd most in the WNBA. Chicago was slower last season, ranking 8th in pace of play with 96.18 possessions per game. The Sky put up 101 points in the preseason against the Liberty who had the 3rd best defensive net rating a season ago. Chicago pushed tempo with 74 field goal attempts, 25 of which came from beyond the arc, of which they made 11. In their other preseason game, they put up 81-points in a loss to Minnesota in which they allowed 92. Both of these teams were below average in defensive net rating a season ago with the Sky at 103.5, the Wings right below them at 103.5. Dallas had the 3rd best offensive net rating a year ago, had the 3rd highest scoring average at 87.9PPG, but also gave up 84.9PPG, 9th most. Dallas played just one preseason game against the Fever and scored 79-points, but that could have been significantly more as they attempted 73 field goals. The Wings shot just 39.7% for the game, 30.8% from beyond the arc. We are betting the tempo is fast in this one and we easily get enough FG attempts to cash an Over!

ASA top play on 10* Minnesota Timberwolves +4.5 at Denver Nuggets, 10:30 PM ET - This has been a wild series with the visitor winning all four games. Minnesota won the opening games of the series in Denver with the second of the two coming by 26-points. Denver then went to Minnesota and won by 27 and 8-points. If we focus on Game 4 there were a few isolated outliers that we don’t expect to happen in Game 5. The Nuggets shot 57% as a team overall, 45% from deep and Aaron Gordon put up a ridiculous shooting performance with 11/12 from the field including 2-2 on 3-pointers. The Nuggets bench did not contribute in the first two games of the series, then played well in Game 4 with Braun, Holiday and Jackson combining for 8 of 14 shooting. The Wolves didn’t play badly in G4, but Anthony Edwards clearly needs Edwards, Conley or Gobert to shoulder more of the scoring load. Minnesota has lost two straight games 5 times this season and did not lose 3 in a row once. They have covered 4 of the last five meetings with the Nuggets in Denver and the one game they didn’t cover they lost by 9-points as a +7.5-point dog. The first four games of this series (like all the series) have been physical dog fights, and the deeper Wolves have the advantage here in altitude. Minnesota’s bench had the 2nd best Net rating in the regular season of +3.1, Denver was 21st. I can’t call for an outright win by Minnesota but expect a very tight game and will grab whatever points are available.

ASA play on 10* OVER 215 Indiana Pacers at NY Knicks, 7 PM ET - The first two games of this series played in New York finished with 238 and 251 total points. In Game 3 in Indiana, they combined for 217 total points and in Game 4 they produced just 210 total points. One of the two teams has scored 120+ in three of the four playoff games thus far in the series. In their last ten meetings they have gone Over this number 8 of ten times. In the postseason the Knicks have a defensive net rating of 119.8 which is 15 out of sixteen teams. The Pacers have a DNR of 117.1 which is 12th worst. Offensively though the Pacers have the best net rating at 121.2, the Knicks are 4th of all playoff teams at 117.1. The loss of Anunoby for the Knicks is a huge hit for them defensively and the Pacers have exploited that loss with an EFG% of 59.1% in this series. The Pacers defense has been bad all season long (finished the regular season 24th in defensive efficiency) and the Knicks have knocked down shots against them to the tune of 54.6% EFG%. The Pacers are going to continue to play fast and now have confidence after two home wins to even the series. The Knicks will get a big lift from the home crowd and should rebound off that horrible Game 4 showing. The bet here is OVER the total.

ASA play on Connecticut Sun -6 vs. Indiana Fever, 7:30 PM ET - The deserved hype surrounding rookie sensation Caitlyn Clark has given the WNBA a huge boost in popularity AND has forced the oddsmakers to inflate the Fever’s value. The last two times these teams met on this court the Sun were favored by 10 and 12-points respectively. Connecticut had a +3.72 average margin of victory last season and finished the regular season with a 27-13 SU record. The Sun started the season off with a 4-1 SU record a year ago and finished the season with a 13-7 SU record on their home court. Indiana had a negative point differential of minus 4PPG last season and were 7-13 SU on the road, 13-27 SU overall. The Fever didn’t get off to a great start last season with a 1-3 record in May. Clark clearly is a HUGE addition but she is a horrible defender and Indiana won’t improve on that end of the court with her in the lineup. Indiana was last in the league in overall defensive net rating and last in 3PT% D allowing opponents to make 37.53% of their attempts. In comparison, the Sun allowed just 78.97PPG best in the WNBA and held opponents to 32% 3-points shooting. Connecticut had the 3rd best Net rating in the WNBA at +4.4, the Fever had the 9th worst at -4.4. The Sun have beaten this Fever team 8 straight times and will be primed to hand the rookie her first pro loss.

#200165 ASA PLAY ON Manchester City -1.5 -110 over Tottenham, Tuesday at 3 ET - This one in English Premier League action. We like the value of the goal line here. Manchester City is a big favorite on the money line but by laying the 1.5 goals on the goal line here, we can get involved at a reasonable price. City has a chance to win the title again this season. They are in 2nd place but, by virtue of Arsenal finishing in a draw with Liverpool Monday, City can overtake Arsenal at the top with a win here.  We foresee not only a win here for Manchester City but also a win by at least a 2-goal margin. Having the goal line at a reasonable price with City is a solid value here. We'll gladly take it! Totenham is off a win but had lost 4 straight prior to that and 3 of the 4 losses were by 2 or more goals.  City has won 7 straight games in Premier League contests and all 7 wins were by at least 2 goals and now have their sights set on winning it all as the door flung wide open with Arsenal's draw yesterday. Take Manchester City on Tuesday afternoon.

ASA top play on UNDER 215 Oklahoma City Thunder at Dallas Mavericks, 9:30 pm ET - The Mavs' Luka Doncic has ‘struggled’ to score in this series with 19, 29 and 22 points in the three game set. That’s significantly lower than his 33.15PPG season average. Luka is banged up right now with several nagging injuries and he’s the ball dominant guard so he has slowed the Mavs pace of play. Dallas has gotten unexpected scoring from PJ Washington who has scored 29 and 27 points in the last two games but we don’t feel that can continue considering he averages 13PPG on the season. Even Kyrie has been quiet by his scoring standards with 20, 9 and 22 points in the 3 games vs. OKC. Dallas averaged 116.8PPG on the season but in this series against OKC they are scoring just 106PPG. The Thunder are having scoring issues of their own as they are scoring 109PPG against the Mavs after averaging 120PPG during the regular season. Shai Gilgeous Alexander is doing his thing for OKC, averaging over 30PPG against the Mavs, but his supporting cast has not risen to the occasion. The Thunder had a regular season EFG% of 57.3% but against this Dallas defense that number has dipped to 53.5%. The pace of play for both teams has dropped significantly in this series as well with both teams averaging 4 less possessions per game compared to their regular season average. We have gotten total points scored of 212 or less in two of the three games and expect that trend to continue here.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 218.5 NY Knicks at Indiana Pacers – Game 4 Sunday - The Knicks short rotation is starting to wear down. Coach Thibadeau has been criticized in the past for not using his bench players and that could be a key factor as this series goes on. In Game 3 the Knicks only managed 16 points in the 4th quarter and 106 for the game. If it weren’t for an unbelievable 3-point shooting night the Knicks certainly don’t reach 100-points. New York was 52% from beyond the arc in Game 3, making 14 of 27 3-pointers. NY shoots 37.2% on the season which is barely above average. The Pacers 3PT% defense is 16th in the NBA allowing 36.7%. Indiana had an average game by their standards with a 47% shooting game and hit 38% from Deep. For the game though these two teams combined for 169 FG attempts which is below the league standard of 177. Both teams pace of play numbers have dropped significantly in the playoffs compared to their regular season tempo. There are several key players for both teams that are not 100% including Haliburton and Nesmith for the Pacers and Brunson continues to play through a sore foot. Any way we slice it we don’t see these two teams combining for more than 215 total points.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 211.5 Boston Celtics at Cleveland Cavaliers, 8:30 PM ET - We admittedly just missed our Over bet on the last game by a ½ point, but in this critical Game 3 we like the Under. In Game 2 we had a few uncharacteristic statistics as the Cavs shot 55% overall and made 13 of 28 3-pointers for 46%. The Cavs shot 47.6% on the season and 36.2% from Deep which were around league average. Not only that but Boston’s defense is one of the best in the league holding opponents to 45.3% (2nd) overall FG% and 35.5% (3rd) from Deep. Granted, we don’t expect the Celtics to shoot just 41% overall and 23% from Downtown as they were the 8th best shooting team on the season and 2nd in 3PT%. The Celtics were the 3rd best defensive efficiency team in the league, the Cavs were 6th best. In Game 2 we had just 166 total possessions which is 10 less than the NBA average during the regular season. In the only other meeting between these two teams on this court this season they produced only 209 points during the regular season and that was with the officials calling every touch foul. The officiating has obviously changed in the playoffs as they are letting teams play. Every home game for the Cavs in the postseason has finished with 207 or less points. Boston went to Miami for two games and gave up 84 and 88 points in each game. Both defenses show up in this one and neither team gets into the 100’s.

ASA top play on OVER 217 Oklahoma City Thunder at Dallas Mavericks, 3:30 PM ET - We have gotten 212 and 229 total points in the two games of this series thus far. In Game 1, the two teams combined for 173 field goal attempts, so the pace of play was higher than league standards, yet the game stayed Under. The reason for only 212 total points was the fact that the Mavs shot just 39%, well below their season average of 47.9%. OKC also shot (45%) slightly below their season average of 49.7%. In Game 2 we got another up-tempo pace of play with 179 field goal attempts and both teams shot much better than the opener with each hitting 47% from the field. We are predicting Game 3 to be very similar in terms of tempo of the first two games and expect both to shoot above that 45% range. The Mavs rim protector Gafford is not 100% which is a major factor as OKC is 5th in the league in fast break points per game and 7th in points in the paint. Dallas had a strong Under record at home this season but game played on this court averaged over 230 total points per game. OKC strongly favored the Over on the road this season and games involving the Thunder as the visitor also averaged over 230PPG. The two regular season meetings between these two teams on this floor finished with 346 and 257 total points. This game gets into the 220’s rather easily.

#200145/200146 ASA PLAY ON Over 3.5 Goals – Newcastle United vs Brighton & Hove, Saturday at 10 AM ET - Newcastle has scored 8 goals in last 3 as a host to Brighton. Newcastle also enters this game on a scoring tear. Newcastle has scored 4 or more goals in 3 of 4 games. Brighton has not scored well of late but now is off a 1-0 win over Arsenal and brings some momentum into this game as they finally got back into the win column. The thing is, Newcastle is so strong on the attack when they are at home and they also have revenge here from a 3-1 loss at Brighton early in the season. The motivation is there in terms of position in the standings here for Brighton (as well as Newcastle) and couple that with Newcastle scoring well of late, the over is the play here. We will take the over in this one.

ASA top play on 10* Indiana Pacers -6.5 vs NY Knicks, Friday 7 PM ET - The Pacers have outplayed the Knicks for large stretches of both games in this series but some questionable calls by officials, and late game big shots by the Knicks have them down 0-2. Indiana is going to feed off their home crowd and get a big win in Game 3 as the Knicks short rotation starts to wear down. Coach Thibadeau has been criticized in the past for not using his bench players and that could be a key factor as this series goes on. Indiana plays at a frenetic pace and rotate 9 players which will eventually take a toll on the 7-man rotation that the Knicks employ. Case in point, in Game 2 the Pacers had 9 players log over 14 minutes each with no starter playing more than 37 minutes. The Knicks had 4 of five starters play over 32 minutes and Anunoby left the game early with an injury and Brunson sat for extended time also with an apparent injury. If Anunoby and Brunson are not 100% this may be a ‘throw away’ game for the Knicks. Indiana had the best bench Offensive Net Rating in the regular season, the Knicks bench ranked 24th. Indiana was 29-15 SU at home this season with the 6th best average point differential of +7.2PPG. New York was a very good road team this season at 25-19 SU and an average plus/minus of +3.0PPG. Surprisingly, the Pacers had a better SU record against the NBA’s top 16 teams at 25-22 compared to the Knicks record of 21-27. Indiana was the best team in the NBA when coming off a loss with a 25-12-2 ATS record and a 67.6% cover rate. Indiana showed some Moxy in the first round series against the Bucks and will be up for this challenge at home in this Game 3. Lay it!

ASA top play on 10* OVER 211.5 Cleveland Cavaliers at Boston Celtics, 7 PM ET - We expect another higher scoring game on Thursday when these two teams square off in Boston in Game 2. The series opener finished with 215 total points which crept Over the total set of 211. We like the fact that the Cavs had 90 field goal attempts in Game 1, the Celtics attempted 92 for a total of 182. That is higher than the regular season average of the entire NBA this season. Cleveland had a horrendous shooting performance in Game 1 of 41% overall and made just 11 of 42 3-point attempts (26%). You can expect a better shooting night in Game 2 as this Cavs team was 12th in the NBA in FG% at 47.6% and shot 36.1% from Deep. Boston had an ‘average’ shooting night by their standards as they hit 49% overall and 39% from beyond the Arc. The Celtics shoot 48.6% on the season and 38.8 from the 3-point line. The three games between these two teams played on this court this season have finished with 233, 223 and 215 total points. We will bet Over here.

#909 ASA PLAY ON Houston Astros +115 over New York Yankees, Thursday at 5:05 PM ET - Houston got hammered last night but should bounce back here.  The Astros have a pitching edge with Ronel Blanco on the mound and facing Marcus Stroman of the Yankees.  Stroman has walked 5 in each of his last two outings!  The Astros are off everyone's radar right now due to a rare rough start to the season but they are still a quality team and Blanco is a high-quality pitcher.  Blanco has allowed only 21 hits in 38.2 innings this season and a 2.09 ERA on the year.  Stroman was fortunate to allow only 1 earned run in his last start as he had to deal with 8 baserunners in only 5 innings.  Prior to that one Stroman allowed 13 earned runs in 19 innings so you can see that Stroman is just not right at the present time!  Houston is on a 4-game skid here but had won 5 of 6 games prior to that. We like them to bounce back here after the 9-4 loss yesterday!  The Yankees have now won 5 straight games but have not won more than 5 in a row since September of 2022!  The Astros avoid the sweep here as Blanco gives them a big edge in this one and Stroman continues to have issues with command of his pitches!  The value is huge here with the road team at an underdog price in this one!  Astros get the call Thursday.

#215213 ASA PLAY ON Aston Villa +100 over Olympiacos, Thursday at 3 ET - This one in Europa Conference League action. This is the 2nd Leg of this semifinals match-up. We like the value of the money line around even money here. Aston Villa is the favorite on the road with plenty of good reason. They are down by 2 goals on the aggregate after the 1st Leg was an ugly home loss for them. Aston Villa should respond here and a 1-goal loss for Olympiacos will still see them advance and, of course, we know Aston Villa - a Premier League team out for revenge from the home loss - will be pushing hard for the 2-goal win here. So, already trailing by 2 goals, they not only push for the 1 goal win but also a win by at least a 2-goal margin. Having the money line at an even money price in this situation with Aston Villa is a solid value here. We'll gladly take it! The fact Villa goalkeeper Martinez might not play is keeping this line low too and, the fact is, Olsen is fine in goal as a 2nd choice option. While Olympiacos is solid, there is still a talent disparity here. Keep in mind, they are trying to become just the 2nd Greek club in history to make a European competition final and the last one was over 50 years ago! We like the odds on the road team from the EPL in this one! Take Aston Villa on Thursday afternoon.

ASA top play on OVER 221.5 Indiana Pacers at NY Knicks Game 2 – 8 PM ET - We were on the Over in Game 1 and will come right back with the same bet here. In the opener of this series the Pacers forced the tempo and pushed the ball on every occasion. It looks to me like Pacer coach Carlisle is willing to sacrifice the first two games of the series and wear the Knicks out who don’t have a deep rotation. They then can maybe win both home games and even the series at 2-2, then let the chips fall where they may. The longer the series goes, the better for a much deeper Pacers team. Both teams shot exceptionally well in Game 1 with the Knicks hitting 54% overall, the Pacers hit 52%. The Knicks were willing to run in the second half with Indiana and we are betting that pace continues in Game 2. During the regular season the Pacers averaged 123.3PPG, the Knicks put up 112.8PPG. Defensively the Knicks were much better ranking 9th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.134PPP, the Pacers were 24th allowing 1.181PPP and 120.2PPG. The Pacers defense was bad in the first round against a Bucks team that was missing their two best scorers in Giannis for all 6 games and Lillard for 2 games. Indiana gave up 118, 113 and 115 in three games but were also able to score 120+ in four of the six games. New York was able to put up 108PPG against a 76ers team that was 11th in DEFF this season and shot 44% for the series 37% from beyond the Arc. In the 3 regular season meetings the Totals set on the games was 237.5, 235.5 and 248. Granted the Playoffs have been much lower scoring but that’s essentially 14.5-points in value with an Over bet here. The three reg season meetings finished with 236, 214 and 266 total points. The Knicks are on a 16-3 Over streak their last eighteen games, Indiana is on a 9-2 Over run themselves. BET OVER!

#35 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Colorado Avalanche +110 over Dallas Stars, Tuesday at 9:30 PM ET - Stars off that grueling 7-game series with Vegas which just wrapped up on Sunday.  The Avalanche, on the other hand, have been off for a week as they hammered the Jets in 4 wins after dropping the first game to Winnipeg.  The Avalanche did allow too many goals in the first game of that series but that is inflating their defensive numbers.  Since losing that first game they have allowed only 2 goals per game last 4 games!  Also, the Avalanche have scored at least 5 goals in 6 straight games!  Colorado has fresh skating legs and they have the edge in the offensive zone and will push the Stars back on their heels from the drop of the puck in this one.  Last season the Stars were eliminated from the post-season by Vegas.  The Golden Knights also went on to win the Stanley Cup last year.  In other words, that victory over Vegas was a huge one for Dallas!  They got revenge and they beat the defending champs and the series took 7 games and they had to rally from a 2-0 series deficit.  When you analyze all these key factors plus the fact Dallas averaged only 2 goals in their last 6 games with Vegas while Colorado has practically been scoring at will, you can see why we like the Avalanche plenty in this spot.  Huge situational edge with the rested Avs taking advantage of a worn-out Dallas team right out of the gate in this one.  Colorado is the bet here. 

ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -11.5 vs Cleveland Cavaliers, 7 PM ET - The well rested Celtics are going to make a statement in Game 1 as they catch a depleted Cavaliers team coming off a very tough 7-game series with Orlando. Boston was 2-1 against the Cavs in the regular season with the home team winning all three games. The C’s two wins at home were by 11 and 7-points. Boston is dominating at home with a 39-5 SU record and an average +/- of plus 15.2PPG. Cleveland on the other hand was an ‘average’ road team at 22-22 SU with a negative differential of minus -0.7PPG. When playing with rest advantage the Celtics are 25-3 SU, 15-12-1 ATS but they’ve won those games by an average of +14.4PPG. With a rest disadvantage the Cavs are 10-13-1 ATS, 13-11 SU this season. Boston was arguably the best team in the NBA the entire season ranking 1st in offensive efficiency and 3rd defensively. The Cavs were great defensively all season long ranking 6th in DEFF, but offensively they averaged 1.152PPP which ranked 18th. Those numbers are very similar to each team’s playoff statistics as the Celtics have the 4th best offensive net rating and the 3rd defensive net rating. Cleveland is 4th in defensive net rating, but 15th (out of 16) in ONR. Cleveland expended a ton of energy in that first round series and won’t have enough in the tank to keep this Game 1 close. Bet Boston minus the double-digits.

#224210 ASA PLAY ON Paris Saint-Germain -1 -135 over Borussia Dortmund, Tuesday at 3 ET - This one in Champions League action. This is the 2nd Leg of this semifinals match-up. We like the value of the goal line here. PSG is a big favorite on the money line but by laying the 1 goal on the goal line here, we can get involved at a reasonable price. Paris Saint-Germain lost the first meeting 1-0 but had plenty of chances. They will cash in more of those at home! We feel certain of even more opportunities now that they are at home for this game. More opportunities and better finishes for the home club. They will also not want to risk this one being decided after regulation. So already trailing 1-0, they not only push for the 1 goal win but also a win by at least a 2-goal margin. Having the goal line at a reasonable price with PSG on their home field is a solid value here. We'll gladly take it! Take Paris Saint-Germain on Tuesday afternoon.

ASA top play on 10* Denver Nuggets -5.5 vs Minnesota Timberwolves, 10 PM ET - This series is essentially over if the Nuggets don’t win Game 2 at home. The T’Wolves shot 48.5% on the season but they had an exceptionally great night from the field at 52% overall and 41% from Deep. I expect a regression in Game 2. Denver had the 3rd best average scoring differential at home this season of +9.5PPG and are 36-9 SU on their home floor. Going back to the beginning of last season the Nuggets are 80-17 SU at home with an average +/- of +9.6PPG. If we go back to the start of the 2021 season, Denver is 104-36 SU +7.4PPG. The Nuggets were 13-13 ATS this season when coming off a loss but they did have an average winning margin of +6.0PPG. Denver lost 8 home games this season and in their next home game following a home loss they were 7-1 SU and won those games by an average of 16PPG. Denver has the 7th best defensive efficiency rating at home and the 3rd best DEFF. Minnesota did some things well in the opener and were able to run three different Bigs at the Joker and he still scored 32-points, grabbed 8 rebounds and dished out 9 assists. Denver head coach Malone will make adjustments and Jamal Murray will step up as he so often does in big moments.

ASA top play on NY Knicks -5.5 vs Indiana Pacers, 7:30 PM ET - The Pacers pretty much punched a soft Milwaukee team in the mouth and the timid Bucks didn’t respond. That same approach isn’t going to work against the toughest team in the league, the NY Knicks. The home crowd will be a big advantage in this series opener and the Pacers are in for an eye-opener in the Garden. Much like Game 1 of the first series when the young Pacers were blown out by Milwaukee 94-109. Indiana is below average on the road this season with a 22-23 SU record and a negative average point differential of minus -1.4PPG. The Knicks were 29-15 SU at home this season with an average Margin of Victory of +5.6PPG. As a home chalk the Knicks were 18-15 ATS with an average +/- of +9.0PPG. Indiana had the better offensive efficiency rating this season ranking 2nd in the NBA, but the Knicks weren’t far behind ranking 7th. Defensively it’s not close though as NY is 9th in DEFF, the Pacers are 24th. Indiana is at their best when they dictate pace, but that won’t happen against this New York team that is the slowest paced team in the NBA at 95.2 possessions per game during the regular season.

#200122 ASA PLAY ON Crystal Palace PK -135 over Manchester United, Monday at 3 ET - This one in English Premier League action. We like the value of the goal line here. Crystal Palace, for a price, is available at a pick'em on the goal line which turns a draw into a push. We are happy to challenge Manchester United to beat CP in this one. Ever since Palace made the managerial change from Roy Hodgson they have played better. Crystal Palace won the most recent meeting with Manchester United plus they earned a draw when they most recently hosted Manchester United. Crystal Palace has only 3 losses in last 11 games overall! Manchester United has just 1 win in last 7 games. Having the goal line at a pick'em with Palace on their home pitch is a solid value here. We'll gladly take it! Take Crystal Palace on Monday afternoon.

ASA top play on 10* Cleveland Cavaliers -155 vs. Orlando Magic, 1 PM ET - This series is tied 3-3 with the home team winning 4 times by double-digits and covering every game but one. The Cavaliers won the first two games of the series at home by 14 and 10-points, then won by 1-point which was really four, but the Magic hit a meaningless 3-pointer at the buzzer. The Magic had a fantastic regular season record at 47-35 SU, but the majority of those wins came at home where they were 29-12. On the road in the regular season, they were 18-23 with a negative differential of minus -3.5PPG. The Cavs were still 26-15 SU at home in the regular season with the 11th best average point differential of +3.8PPG. Cleveland was very good off a loss this season with a 23-13 SU record and an average +/- of +2.5PPG. Orlando was 16-15 ATS as an away Dog this season with a net differential per game of minus -6.7PPG. Cleveland was .500 as a home favorite ATS but they did win those games by an average of +6.4PPG. Donovan Mitchell is one of a handful of NBA players to score 50+ points three times in the NBA playoffs and he’s more that capable of carrying this team to a victory. The Magic have a legitimate scorer in Banchero but he’s young and not quite ready for this huge playoff road moment.

#200114 ASA PLAY ON Chelsea over West Ham United, Sunday at 9 AM ET - This one in English Premier League action. Chelsea has gone undefeated in last 7 home games and outscored their opponents by a combined 24 to 11 in that run. West Ham has only won twice in last dozen games. The value with home team here even though the price is in the -165 range. The road team has not won any of the last five meetings. Home team got the win in 4 of the 5 and we like Chelsea again here at home. These two teams have been going opposite directions and we like the home team at a moderate price here. The home team likely to roll here again in this match-up and our computer math model shows strong odds of that for Sunday! Take Chelsea on Sunday morning.

ASA top play on 10* Denver Nuggets -4.5 vs Minnesota Timberwolves, 7 PM ET - This could be the best series of the entire playoffs, but we have to back the home team here and expect the Nuggets to serve notice in Game 1. During the regular season and as recently as April 10th the Nuggets were much larger favorites at home of -7.5-points and are now laying a shorter number here. Denver had the 3rd best average scoring differential at home this season of +9.5PPG and are 36-8 SU on their home floor. Going back to the beginning of last season the Nuggets are 80-16 SU at home with an average +/- of +9.6PPG. If we go back to the start of the 2021 season, Denver is 104-35 SU +7.4PPG. Where we are going with this is that Denver is dominating as a host and even though the Wolves looked great in their opening series, this is a whole different level in the Mile High City. Denver has the 7th best defensive efficiency rating at home and the 3rd best DEFF. Minnesota’s opening round series sweep over the Suns isn’t as impressive as you might think as the Suns aren’t that good to begin with. The Wolves were 28-15 SU away this season with an average +/- of +5.0PPG. The Nuggets can match the T’Wolves size (Jokic + Gordon) and have a great perimeter defender in Caldwell Pope who can make Anthony Edwards work for his points. With the home crowd support we like Denver to win game 1 and cover in the process.

#200089/200090 ASA PLAY ON Over 3.5 Goals – Arsenal vs Bournemouth, Saturday at 7:30 AM ET - Arsenal is a big 2-goal favorite here. They need to win to insure they stay at the top of the standings. This should insure that Arsenal will be ready to go here. Bournemouth can attack well also however. Bournemouth has scored 7 goals in 4 games. Arsenal has scored 10 goals in 3 games. Arsenal has scored 10 goals in 3 meetings with Bournemouth since August of 2022. Arsenal is trying to hold off Manchester City for the top spot in the league but Manchester City has a game in hand. With the importance of this match for Arsenal plus Bournemouth scoring well of late, the over is the play here. We will take the over here.

#3 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Dallas Stars -110 over Vegas Golden Knights, Friday at 10 PM ET - The Stars have won 3 straight games in this series as they look to exact revenge for getting knocked out of the post-season by the Golden Knights last season when Vegas was on their way to the Stanley Cup. The Stars have had the goalie edge in this series and, not including an empty net goal, have allowed just 2 goals in each of last 4 games! Vegas, on the other hand (and not including empty netter), have allowed at least 3 goals in 4 of the 5 games. So Dallas has had the upper hand in this series and they have all the momentum with 3 straight wins. Also, the road team had taken 6 straight games in this series (dating back to the regular season) prior to the Stars getting the win on home ice in Game 5 in Dallas! In other words, home ice has not been a big deal in meetings between these teams and Dallas has already won both meetings at Vegas in this series! The Stars had the best road record of any team in the NHL in the regular season. Now, 2-0 in the post-season on the road and Dallas has won 10 of last 11 games away from home. The Stars have scored at least 3 goals in all 10 of those wins. Now, remember what we said above about Vegas being held to just 2 goals in 4 straight games and you can see why we especially like the value with the road team in this one. Jake Oettinger has been fantastic in goal for the Stars and allowed just 2 goals in 4 straight games. The Golden Knights were riding Thompson in goal and then switched to Hill in Game 5 and lost. They are going with Hill again here and though that worked last year, Hill instead of Brossoit, it seems like the switch to Hill this season - instead of Thompson - might prove to be their undoing. Remember that Hill allowed 3 or more goals in 10 of his last 11 starts this season. Those 10 starts saw 4 goals on average and, again, the Knights have not been able to get more than 2 past Oettinger in any of the last 4 games. Dallas is the bet here.

ASA top play on Orlando Magic -3.5 vs Cleveland Cavaliers, 7 PM ET - The home team is 5-0 SU in this series and all but one of those home wins have come by 10 or more points. We were on the Cavs last game and unbeknownst to us the Cavs Jarrett Allen was ruled out shortly before tipoff. Cleveland managed to win but it was by 1-point. We talked about how ‘average’ the Magic are on the road, but at home they are fantastic. They are 31-12 SU at home on the season with an average +/- of plus +8.9PPG which is the 4th best average in the NBA. Cleveland is only 1-game over .500 on the road this season with a negative point differential of minus -0.4PPG. The young Magic feed off their home crowd which has helped them beat this Cavaliers team in 3 of four meetings this season, with wins of 10, 38 and 23. Orlando is better in terms of offensive efficiency in this series and they have the 2nd best defensive efficiency rating in the playoffs allowing just .973-points per possession. We like the Magic to force a game 7 with a solid home win Friday night.

#203334 ASA PLAY ON Toulouse over Montpellier, Friday at 1 PM ET - This one in French Ligue 1 action. Revenge game for Toulouse as they lost the first meeting at Montpellier early this season 3-0. That is not the type of loss that is easily forgotten about and Toulouse had won the two meetings before that by a combined score of 6-3. Toulouse enters this one on a 5-game unbeaten stretch. Montpellier has also played well of late but they played a weak schedule in terms of most of the opponents in their 5-game unbeaten run. So Montpellier is a bit over-valued right now. Toulouse is trying to make a big push for a top six spot in the table and they still have a shot at that. At home and ready for revenge and playing on a hot streak too, Toulouse gets it done here. Our computer math model shows strong odds of a big home win here Friday! Take Toulouse on Friday afternoon.

ASA play on NY Knicks +3.5 at Philadelphia 76ers, 9 PM ET - We will grab the dog here in New York who has been the better overall team in this series. One constant we know in backing New York is this, and everyone watching this series can attest to it, the Knicks play harder than Philly. They are undersized yet own the 4th best rebound percentage of all the teams in the playoffs while the 76ers rank 13th. The Sixers got a herculean effort out of Maxey in Game 5 when he scored 46 points and back-packed the team late with a 4-point play and a looonngg 3-pointer which sent the game to OT. Joel Embiid looks to be favoring that bad knee and his stamina just isn’t there. New York had the 2nd best spread record in the NBA this season when coming off a loss at 21-11-1 ATS with a winning margin of +5.1PPG. This is going to be another barn-burner and will be decided by a bucket or less either way so grab the dog and the points.

#224405 ASA PLAY ON Bayer Leverkusen over Roma, Thursday at 3 PM ET - This one in Europa League action and is a 1st Leg game.  These are the Semi-Finals and Bayer Leverkusen just won the Bundesliga and they are favored here on the road, certainly not by accident!  This is a strong team that wants to make a statement here and get the upper hand in this one before the match-up shifts to Germany for the 2nd Leg game.  We like the fact that Bayer Leverkusen has given up only 4 goals over 7 games!  Unbelievably this solid team has gone 46 games unbeaten and 38 of the games were wins!  Roma has allowed 7 goals in 4 games and lost their most recent home game 3 to 1.  Another reason to like the road team in this one even more.  This is also revenge for Bayer Leverkusen as they lost last year in Europa League to Roma by an aggregate of 1 to 0 after losing in Champions League 8 years earlier by an aggregate of 7-6.  The Bundesliga champions are ready to make up for all this with a win in the rematch.  The best way to increase the odds of that is to get a road win in the 1st Leg and our computer math model shows strong odds of that for Thursday!  Take Bayer Leverkusen on Thursday afternoon.

ASA top play on Dallas Mavericks -2.5 vs LA Clippers, 10 PM ET - This line smells! It’s fishy to begin with, then Dallas gets hammered with $ and it moves from -1 to the current number of -3. If it’s too good to be true, then it isn’t! Back the Mavericks here off that disappointing Game 4 loss at home as they are 20-13 ATS this season when coming off a loss with a positive plus/minus. As an away favorite the Mavs have been outstanding this season at 19-5 ATS with an average Margin of Victory of +7.4PPG. The LA Clippers have been home underdogs just 6 times this season and are 2-4 ATS in those games with an average differential of minus -9.5PPG. Kyrie was amazing last game and carried the load as Luka had an off night. If both players are on their game tonight the Clippers will be in trouble in this critical Game 5. Bet contrarian here and take Dallas minus the points.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 215 Indiana Pacers at Milwaukee Bucks, 9:30 PM ET - Help me understand this O/U number. The first game of the series had a Total set of 230, Game 2 & 3 dropped to 223 and Game 4 was 215. After a low scoring game in the opener these two teams have produced 233, 239 (OT) and 239 total points and yet the O/U hasn’t gone up for this game? In the most recent game between these two teams the Bucks were without their two leading scorers, Giannis and Lillard. Then key reserve Bobby Portis gets ejected early in the game. Some how the Bucks still managed to score 113 points on 51% shooting. The Pacers couldn’t miss in the last game as they shot 52% overall and 51% from Deep by making 22 of 43 3-pointers. Myles Turner was especially hot for the Pacers, making 7 of 9 3-pointers which is well above his season 3PT% of 35%. We expect a regression in the Pacers shooting and also expect the Bucks to struggle to score without several key offensive ingredients. The series is starting to get heated as these two teams don’t like each other so expect both defenses to play at a high level here. This is certainly a contrarian bet as the O/U number looks too good to be true!

ASA top play on 10* Cleveland Cavaliers -4.5 vs. Orlando Magic, 7 PM ET - This series is tied 2-2 with the home team winning each game by double-digits and we are betting that trend continues here. The Cavaliers won the first two games of the series at home by 14 and 10-points. Then the series shifted to Orlando where the Magic won by 38 and 23-points. Those two embarrassing defeats will have the Cavs in the proper frame of mind to get a home win here. The Magic had a fantastic regular season record at 47-35 SU, but the majority of those wins came at home where they were 29-12. On the road in the regular season, they were 18-23 with a negative differential of minus -3.5PPG. Orlando was great defensively this season ranking 2nd in DEFF but they struggled to score points ranking 22nd in OEFF while scoring just 110PPG. The Magic lack a big-time shooter on their team and ranked 15th in team FG% overall, 24th in 3PT%. You can argue the Cavs are the same team ranking 18th in OEFF and 6th in DEFF. The Cavs though are a better overall shooting team at 47.9% (12th) and 36.7% in 3PT% (15th). Cleveland also played without their best scoring option in Donovan Mitchell (27PPG) who missed 27 games this season, along with Evan Mobley (16PPG) who missed 32 games and Darius Garland (18PPG) who only played 57 games. Despite all the missed time by key players the Cavs were still 26-15 SU at home in the regular season with the 11th best average point differential of +3.8PPG. Cleveland was very good off a loss this season with a 22-12 SU record and an average +/- of +2.5PPG. Orlando was 15-15 ATS as an away Dog this season with a net differential per game of minus -6.7PPG. Cleveland was one game below .500 as a home favorite ATS but they did win those games by an average of +6.4PPG.

ASA play on OVER 216.5 LA Lakers at Denver Nuggets, 10 PM ET - In the 4 games of this series these two teams have combined for 217 or more points three times. They have totaled 217 or more points in 8 of the last nine meetings. The Lakers have the 2nd best team FG percentage in the NBA at 49.8% and 8th best 3PT% at 37.3%. Denver is the 4th best shooting team in the league at 49.4% and rank 10th in 3PT% at 36.9%. Of the 16 teams left in the Playoffs, these two teams are 8th and 9th in Offensive Net Rating and Defensive Net Rating. They are also the two fastest paced teams in the Playoffs with each averaging 97 possessions per game. The Lakers are shooting 49% in this series, the Nuggets are hitting 46%. The Lakers finally got the gorilla off their backs with a win in the last game which snapped an 11-game losing streak to Denver. That ensures the Nuggets full attention in this game and focused effort here to eliminate the Lakers and move on to the next round. The Lakers on the other hand should be in full desperation mode and pull out all stops to steal a victory. Denver home games this season averaged over 227 total points per game. The Lakers game on the road averaged over 237 total PPG. We expect a higher scoring game here. Bet OVER.

#913 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota Twins -1.5 on the Run Line (+110) over Chicago White Sox, Monday at 7:40 PM ET - We had our eyes on this one for a few days and everything has come together nicely for a big play.  The White Sox have suddenly won 3 straight but faced a struggling Rays team that has now lost 6 of 7 and has not been playing good baseball.  Now this 6-22 Chicago team faces a red hot Minnesota club that just swept them in a 4-games series and followed it up by sweeping the Angels in a 3-game series!  Our concern with the Twins early this season was their bats but they are absolutely getting it going now and are loaded with confidence at the plate.  Also, they have scored at least 5 runs in all 7 victories in their 7 game winning streak and they just pounded the Angels by a combined 27-10 in the last two games of that 3-game sweep!  The Twins bats have come alive big-time!  Also, they hold a big pitching edge here.  Yes, Garrett Crochet has some impressive strikeout numbers this season but he has struggled with allowing too many hits, including big hits, in his last 3 starts.  It has been like Jekyll and Hyde when you look at Crochet's first 3 starts compared to his next 3 starts this season.  He also just faced the Twins and struggled as part of a stretch in which the young hurler has allowed at least 5 earned runs in all 3 starts even though he has not gotten past the 5th inning in any of the outings!  He will be no match for Joe Ryan here.  Like Crochet, Ryan is piling up strikeouts too.  However, unlike Crochet, Ryan is a veteran pitcher and he has been in consistently strong form all season long.  He recently pitched very well against the White Sox and he also has been in top form in his two road starts this season with just 1 earned run allowed in each.  11 of the Twins 14 wins this season have been by 2 or more runs.  16 of the last 19 losses that Chicago has suffered have been of the multi-run variety.  We are going to take advantage of the value on the run line here in a game our computer math model shows strong odds of turning into a road rout.  Lay the 1.5 with Minnesota

ASA top play on 10* Indiana Pacers -9.5 vs Milwaukee Bucks, 7 PM ET - The Bucks are in a very tough situation here without Giannis and now Dame Lillard who are their two leading scorers. Khris Middleton put this team on his back in Game 3, scored 42 and it still wasn’t enough as Milwaukee lost in OT. You could see Middleton was exhausted in that game and now he’ll be the focal point of the Pacers defense so we’re not sure where the Bucks scoring will come from. Indiana had 6 players score in double digits and also got 6-points from Sheppard and 7 from McConnell off the bench. Indiana was 26-15 SU at home this season with the 6th best home court differential of +6.8PPG. They closed out the regular season with 5 straight home wins, 4 of which were against other Playoff teams. Milwaukee was a below average road team this season with a 18-22 SU record and a negative average Margin of Victory of minus -1.1PPG. When coming off a loss the Bucks are 14-19-1 ATS this season which is the second worst spread record in the league in that situation. Indiana is 6-2 SU versus the Bucks this season and 4 of those wins have come by 9+ points. Lay it here with the Pacers.

ASA top play on LA Clippers +6 at Dallas Mavericks, 3:30 PM ET - We are backing the Clippers today and will grab the generous points against the Mavericks. I’ll be honest I prefer this bet if Kawhi Leonard does NOT play for the Clippers as he’s clearly not himself at this point in time. Without Leonard in Game 1 the Clippers offense and defense was much better than it’s been with him on the floor. Specifically, on offense where the ball was moving much better and didn’t stop with him in isolation sets. Either way, we expect a very tight Game 4 in Dallas. The Mavs are 26-16 SU at home but have an ‘average’ point differential of +3.8PPG which is 14th in the NBA. The Clippers have an identical road record of 26-16 SU with the 5th best average Margin of Victory at +3.2PPG. The Clippers were 19-13 SU this season when coming off a loss with a +2.3PPG point differential. These two teams have slowed down dramatically in terms of field goal attempts and pace of play which makes the points and this dog that much more attractive.

ASA top play on Boston Celtics -9 vs Miami Heat, 6 PM ET - We are obviously laying a premium price here with the Celtics, but our numbers suggest a double digit win by the visitor. Miami won Game 2, but it took a historically great 3-point shooting night to notch that W. The Heat set franchise playoff records with the number of 3’s made (23) and 3PT% at 53%. We are expecting a sharp regression in Game 3 as the Celtics have the 4th best 3PT% defense in the NBA allowing just 35.4%. Miami is 12th in the league in 3PT% at 37.2%. Boston also had two starters play one of their worst statistical games of the season with Jrue Holiday and Porzingis struggling. The Celtics are 14-4 SU coming off a loss this season, which doesn’t translate when they are favored by 9.5 points, but their average MOV in those games was +12.3PPG, which does. Miami was slightly better than average at home this season with a 23-19 SU record, but they had a low +/- of +2.4PPG. Boston was the best road team in the NBA this season at 27-14 SU with a +7.5PPG average point differential. The Celtics won on this court twice this season already and one of those wins came by 33-points. Lay it with a motivated Celtics team.

ASA top play on 10* Indiana Pacers -5.5 vs Milwaukee Bucks, 5:30 PM ET - If we examine the big picture for the Bucks, it’s not as rosy as one might think. They are already paying two previous coaches a ton of money and are now stuck with Doc Rivers who is vastly overrated. The roster when healthy is a good one, but without Giannis (30PPG, 11.5RPG, 6.5APG, 1.1BPG) they have too many deficiencies on both ends of the court. There is a good chance Khris Middleton doesn’t play tonight, or if he does, he will not be close to 100%. The young Pacers were clearly nervous for Game 1 as it was a first-time playoff experience for many on the roster and it showed in a 109-94 loss. Then in Game 2 they settled in and dominated the Bucks in the second half for a 125-108 victory. Back at home we expect the home crowd to be electric and the young Pacers will feed off that energy. Indiana was 26-15 SU at home this season with the 6th best home court differential of +6.8PPG. They closed out the regular season with 5 straight home wins, 4 of which were against other Playoff teams. Milwaukee was a below average road team this season with a 18-22 SU record and a negative average Margin of Victory of minus -1.1PPG. When coming off a loss the Bucks are 13-19-1 ATS this season which is the second worst spread record in the league in that situation. Indiana is 5-2 SU versus the Bucks this season and 4 of those wins have come by 9+ points. The Bucks have no answer for Siakam who torched Milwaukee for 36 and 37 points in the first two games. Easy call here with Indiana in a double-digit win.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 216.5 Denver Nuggets at LA Lakers, 10 PM ET - We are simply betting the number here and have to take the value with an OVER wager in this Game 3. Everyone knows how the Nuggets have dominated the Lakers with 10-straight wins but so far in this series the (gulp) Lakers have been the better overall team. While we are not getting involved in the Side of this game, we will jump in on the Total. The first two games in this series had O/U’s of 226.5 and 223. Granted, they combined for 217 and 200 total points but that will change in Game 3. The two regular season games in Los Angeles had O/U’s posted of 231.5 and 233 and the two teams combined for 238 and 220. In fact, in the last ten meetings between these two teams they have combined to score more than tonight Total eight times. The Lakers will set the tempo tonight and they prefer to play fast at home with the 3rd fastest pace of play on their home court during the regular season. We also know the Lakers will get some ‘home cooking’ from the officials and will score plenty of points from the free throw line with a stopped clock. The Lakers are 20-15-1 Over when coming off a loss this season, 29-25-1 Over against other Western Conference teams. Denver has some strong Under support on the road this season but those O/U numbers were set significantly higher during the regular season. The Nuggets road games averaged 220PPG on the year which is clearly enough to grab the cash in this one.

ASA play on Orlando Magic -1.5 -115 or Pick -125 vs Cleveland Cavaliers, 7 PM ET - Home teams have dominated thus far in the playoffs (as expected they are the lower seed) and we expect that trend to carry over in this 4/5 series. The Magic were 18-23 SU away from home this season with an average +/- of -3.6PPG. They had an efficiency differential of minus -3.6 on the road. At home the Magic were a completely different team with a 29-12 SU record and the 5th best average point differential of +7.8PPG. We played against Orlando in the first two games of this series and expected them to struggle offensively. They shot just 33% and 36% in Games 1 and 2. We should see a positive regression here as they shoot 47.5% on the season and 48.7% at home. Cleveland did have a winning record on the road this season of 22-19 SU with a positive differential of +1.1PPG. They have lost 8 of their last ten on the road though and now face a desperate Orlando team who is fantastic on their home court. We like Orlando to get a win here.

ASA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans +7.5 at Oklahoma City Thunder, 9:30 PM ET - The Pelicans looked good in the opener of this series and the Thunder looked like a young team lacking playoff experience. New Orleans covered rather easily and could have stolen Game 1 had they hit a few open 3’s they missed late in the game. The Pelicans attempted 96 field goals in the game and dominated the glass with 52 rebounds versus 44 for OKC. The Thunder shot 44% overall and 31% from deep but had two quarters with 20 or less points. I originally liked the Thunder in Game 1 with the Pelicans coming off two huge emotional games then having to travel. But the Pelicans proved their 28-15 SU road record this season isn’t a fluke and with the G1 cover they are on a 15-5-1 ATS run as a road underdog. New Orleans also has a strong history when coming off a loss at 21-12-1 ATS with an average +/- in those games of +6.3PPG. OKC clearly has some strong home court statistical support but given the fact that the Pelicans shot poorly in the opener and still nearly won outright has us on New Orleans here. Four of the last five in this series have been decided by 7 points or less. Grab the digits.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 211.5 New Orleans at Oklahoma City Thunder, 9:30 PM ET - The opening game of this series was obviously very low scoring with 186 total points. That forced the oddsmakers to make a correction on the O/U number here, so we are looking at a much lower number compared to Game 1. We like the value with an Over bet on this one. In the opener these two teams combined for 181 total field goal attempts which is higher than the league average of 177 per game. The Pels had a poor shooting night at 39% overall and 28% from the 3-point line. Those averages are well below their seasonal numbers of 48.5% and 38%. We like a positive regression here for the Pels and more shots to fall in Game 2. The same case can be made for the Thunder. OKC shot 44% overall in Game 1 and 31% from Deep. Both well below their season average of 49.8% (3rd in NBA) and 38.8% (1st). With both teams expected to shoot better tonight we predict an easy Over winner in Game 2.

#77 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Nashville Predators +115 over Vancouver Canucks, Tuesday at 10 PM ET - Demko is the #1 goalie for the Canucks and he made a stellar early save in the Game 1 win.  Also, Saros is the #1 goalie for the Predators and the Canucks first goal was a bit of a soft one that normally Saros would save. Even with all this, the Predators still led the game 2-1 mid-way through the final period!  Per the above, that score truly could have been 3-0 in favor of Nashville.  The fact it was not and the fact the game ended up a 4-2 Vancouver win (Canucks got empty net goal to seal it) has led to line value here.  But why did this line come down even more?  It is because Demko is out for tonight for the Canucks.  DeSmith will get the call instead as Demko is said to have a minor injury and will miss at least this game.  DeSmith is just not on the same level as Demko and, before allowing 1 goal in his final regular season start, DeSmith allowed 6 goals in B2B starts!  The Predators played very well in Game 1 yet ended up with nothing to show for it.  Now you have a superb situation with a highly motivated team down 1-0 in the series and looking to take advantage of a back-up goalie who has played only once in recent weeks.  Saros is a veteran who is likely to be even better in Game 2.  DeSmith has made only one post-season appearance in his career!  On the other hand, Saros has played in 18 post-season games and is playing in his 6th post-season!  Take advantage of the line value in this one and grab the small dog money line price with the road team here as the Predators take advantage of the goalie situation and bounce back off the tough game 1 loss. Nashville is the bet here.

ASA top play on 10* Indiana Pacers +1.5 at Milwaukee Bucks, 8:30 PM ET - The Pacers looked like a bunch of young kids that never had a taste of playoff basketball in the first half against the Bucks. Milwaukee was up 69-42 at halftime with Dame Lillard going off for 35-points. Indiana played much better in the second half, outscoring the Bucks 52-40 while holding Lillard scoreless in the second half. Now that the Pacers have the jitters out of the way we expect them to win Game 2 in Milwaukee who will again be without Giannis. Indiana has won 4 of the last six meetings with Milwaukee and they own the best spread record in the NBA this season when coming off a loss with a 23-11-1 ATS record and an average +/- in those games of +4.8PPG. The Bucks have a losing spread record when coming off a win of 23-26 ATS with a plus/minus of +2.7PPG. Milwaukee is not a good defensive team so don’t expect them to hold the Pacers to 40% shooting again or 21% from Deep. Take Indiana in Game 2.

ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns +3.5 at Minnesota Timberwolves, 7:30 PM ET - The T’Wolves were disrespected in Game 1 with an opening line of -1.5 and were coming off a loss to the Suns so they clearly got up for the opener in a resounding 120-95 win. We like the Suns to rebound from that G1 loss and even this series at one win apiece. Phoenix had won 3 straight against the Wolves in the regular season with all of those wins coming by 7+ points. In the regular season finale on this court the Suns won by 19-points. In Game 1 the Wolves got a monster effort from Anthony Edwards who poured in 33 points on 14 of 24 shooting. ANT is obviously capable of those types of performances, but we like the Suns to make adjustments in Game 2 and force him to give up the ball early in the offensive set. Phoenix got a big game from KD who scored 31 and grabbed 7 boards but Booker was relatively quiet with 18-points. Bradley Beal scored just 15 after scoring 36 vs. the Wolves in the last regular season game. The Suns closed out the regular season with 4 straight road wins against Playoff teams and this veteran group will not be intimidated by the moment. The Suns 9-1 ATS streak in this series continues here.

ASA top play on 10* Denver Nuggets -7 vs. LA Lakers, 8:30 PM ET - The Nuggets had a long layoff going into Game 1 and it showed as they got off to a slow start and trailed early by as many as 12 points. Denver pulled together and dominated the last 3 quarters of the game. That makes it 9 straight wins for the Nuggets over the Lakers and there is not reason not to expect that trend to continue here. The Lakers are bad defensively, ranking 17th in defensive efficiency as they allow 1.154-points per possession. Since the All-Star break the Lakers rank 23rd in defensive Net rating and have allowed the 3rd most points per game in that time frame at 120.3PPG. Offensively the Lakers are ‘average’ in terms of offensive efficiency ranking 15th in the NBA. As we previously mentioned, Denver has owned the Lakers with 9 straight wins, they rank 5th in offensive efficiency and 8th in defensive efficiency. The Nuggets are 34-8 SU at home this season with an average +/- of +9.8PPG. Since the beginning of last season, the Nuggets are 78-17 SU at home +9.8PPG. LBJ and AD are soft like warm ice cream and both were dinged up a little in game 1 so don’t expect peak effort here. Lay it with Denver.

ASA top play on 10* Cleveland Cavaliers -5.5 vs. Orlando Magic, 7 PM ET - The young Magic had a fantastic regular season at 47-35 SU, but were 29-12 at home. On the road they were 18-23 with a negative differential of minus -3.5PPG. Orlando was great defensively this season ranking 2nd in DEFF but they struggled to score points ranking 22nd in OEFF while scoring just 110PPG. The Magic lack a big time shooter on their team and ranked 15th in team FG% overall, 24th in 3PT%. You can argue the Cavs are the same team ranking 18th in OEFF and 6th in DEFF. The Cavs though are a better overall shooting team at 47.9% (12th) and 36.7% in 3PT% (15th). Cleveland also played without their best scoring option in Donovan Mitchell (27PPG) who missed 27 games this season, along with Evan Mobley (16PPG) who missed 32 games and Darius Garland (18PPG) who only played 57 games. Despite all the missed time by key players the Cavs were still 26-15 SU at home in the regular season with the 11th best average point differential of +3.8PPG. In Game 1 the Cavs won by 14-points and they didn’t even play as well as we expected. The big edge the Cavaliers enjoyed in the opener and will not change here is their size and advantage on the board. Cleveland grabbed 54 rebounds compared to the Magic’s 40. We did expect the Magic to struggle offensively, and they did with only 32 combined points in the 2nd and 3 quarters. For the game the Magic shot just 33% overall and they may shoot better here but the Cavs are also going to improve over their Game 1 performance. Let’s lay it again in Game 2 with Cleveland.

ASA top play on 10* Oklahoma City Thunder -8 vs New Orleans Pelicans, 9:30 PM ET - The Pelicans have top 10 efficiency ratings in both offense and defense and are a team capable of coming out of the West statistically. But the reality is that they haven’t played up to those expectations lately with a 5-6 SU record and are now in trouble without Zion Williamson for the foreseeable future. The Pels are coming off two huge emotional home games just to get into the Playoffs and will have a tough time getting up for this Game 1. OKC is well rested, rank 3rd in offensive efficiency, 4th in defensive efficiency, are 33-8 SU at home and win on their own court by an average of +13.3PPG. OKC is 23-12 ATS as a home favorite this season with an average +/- in those games of +15.2PPG. The Thunder have won two straight in this series versus the Pelicans and 4 of the last five. We are backing the round 1, big home favorite in this matchup which has produced steady profits for 10+ years.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 231.5 Indiana Pacers at Milwaukee Bucks, 7 PM ET - This number opened at 239.5 and has been steadily bet down so we will step in now with the value-bet on the Over. Let’s start with the fact that these are the two worst defenses of all the Playoff teams. The Bucks rank 19th on the season in defensive efficiency allowing 1.159-points per possession. The Pacers are worse yet ranking 24th allowing 1.211PPP and over 120PPG. Things haven’t gotten any better since the All-Star break either as the Bucks have the 17th defensive Net rating, the Pacers are 18th. We also know both teams want to play fast and get out in transition. The Pacers are the 2nd fastest paced team in the NBA, the Bucks are 7th. When it comes to offensive efficiency the Pacers ranked 2nd in the NBA and scored 123.3PPG. Milwaukee was 6th in OEFF and put up 119PPG. We are confident we are going to get a big game from Dame Lillard or Khris Middleton or Bobby Portis. The season series between these two teams was very high scoring with total points scored of 272, 235, 266, 247 and 260. Bet OVER here!

ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -13.5 vs Miami Heat, 1 PM ET - As soon as the Heat vs Bulls game went final I was immediately poised to bet on the Celtics at home minus the points. Boston opened briefly at -12.5 and I was all in. Clearly the line has been adjusted slightly but we still feel there is value with the Celtics. Boston was in cruise control late in the season as they had home court wrapped up and focused on staying healthy down the stretch. Boston was the best team in the NBA the entire season and has the deepest team in the league. The Celtics had the best record in the NBA against the top 16 teams in the league this season at 27-14. They ranked 1st in OEFF and 3rd defensively. They had the best average Margin of Victory per game at +11.3 overall. They won at home by an average of +15.2PPG. The Celtics were near unbeatable at home and owned a 20-4 SU versus other playoff teams on their floor this season. In February the C’s were favored by -8-points in Miami so this line isn’t as high as it seems. Miami lost Jimmy Butler to a knee injury in the Play-In games and don’t have enough weapons to trade baskets with Boston. The Heat used a zone defensive effectively against the 76ers and Bulls but those two teams rank 23rd and 18th in team FG%. The Celtics have the 8th best team FG% in the NBA and the 2nd best 3PT% so the Heat zone isn’t going to work in this one. Big favorites in Round 1 have done historically well with a 59% cover rate and we expect the Celtics to make quick work of the Heat who upset them in the Playoffs a year ago.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 214.5 Phoenix Suns @ Minnesota Timberwolves, 3:30 PM ET - This is going to be a heated series and we expect this first game to be dominated by the defenses. These two met in the regular season finale and the O/U on that game was 216.5. The Suns won that game 125-106, an easy Over. So why did the oddsmaker adjust this number lower than that previous game? Digging deeper we find the combined field goal attempts by both teams (156) well below the league average of 177 per game. The main reason the game eclipsed the number was a great night of shooting by both teams. The Suns hit 55% overall and went 16-29 from the 3PT line for 55%. We expect a regression here as the Suns shot 49.3% on the season and 38.2% from Deep. Not to mention the Wolves have the #1 FG% defense in the NBA and rank 7th in opponents 3PT%. In that most recent game, the Wolves shot 51% and made 25 of 31 FT attempts. The Suns have the 8th best FG% D in the league and the Wolves rank 10th in team field goal percentage. This won’t be a high possession game either as the T’Wolves are the 24th slowest paced team in the NBA, the Suns rank 15th. Minnesota has a historically great defensive efficiency rating this season and the Suns were above average ranking 13th in DEFF. This one shapes up to be a grinder with a low output by each team. Bet UNDER.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 207.5 Orlando Magic at Cleveland Cavaliers, 1 PM ET - We will keep this analysis short and get right to the facts. These are two of the best defenses in the NBA with the Magic ranking 2nd in defensive efficiency allowing just 1.113 points per possession, the Cavs rank 6th. Cleveland has the 6th best FG% defense in the league and allow the 7th fewest points. Orlando allows a higher FG% but allows just 108.4PPG 4th fewest in the league and give up the 8th fewest points in the paint. Offensively neither team is great as the Magic rank 22nd in offensive efficiency, the Cavs are 18th. Cleveland is 12th in team FG% overall, 15th in 3PT%. Orlando ranks 15th in team FG%, 24th in 3PT%. Lastly, this should be a slower tempo game as the Magic are the 5th slowest paced team in the league, the Cavs are 9th slowest. The young Magic have not been in a pressure situation like this and the Cavs best scoring option Donovan Mitchell is less than 100%. We like UNDER.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 210 Sacramento Kings at New Orleans Pelicans, 9:30 PM ET - The oddsmakers have over-adjusted this number with the injury status of Zion Williamson. These two teams have met 5 times this season and put-up huge numbers in each of those games. They have combined to total 222 or more points in every clash this season and most recently amassed 258 total points just 7-days ago. The five meetings this season between these two have averaged 237.5PPG. We don’t see things changing here as both look to extend their seasons. We should get an average pace of play with the Kings ranking 13th in possessions per game and the Pelicans ranking 18th. The Kings do their scoring with volume as they attempt the 6th most field goals per game this season and 3rd most 3’s. The Pelicans do their damage offensively with the 9th best FG% and the 3rd best 3PT%. Sacramento is not a great defensive team to begin with so the Pels shouldn’t have any problems putting up a big offensive number here. The Kings held the Warriors to 94-points in their last game, but Golden State literally couldn’t throw it in the ocean, shooting 41% overall and 31% from Deep. The Pelicans scored 106 but attempted 93 field goal attempts. Had the Lakers not gotten to the FT line every other possession (surprise) this could have been a much higher scoring game if the Pelicans could have gotten into a rhythm. This number is simply too low and we expect a game closer to the league average of 227.4 total points.

ASA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans +1.5 vs. Sacramento Kings, 9:30 PM ET - We can’t pass on the Pelicans as a home dog here. We’ve seen it happen a million times, when a Super Star gets injured, in the very next game, someone shines in their absence. New Orleans is coming off a very tough home loss to the Lakers (outscored by 15 at the FT line) and will bounce back here. Sacramento on the other hand is off a huge win over the Warriors who eliminated them from the postseason last year. These two teams met in Sacramento on April 11th in a ‘must win’ for both teams and the Pelicans never trailed in a 12-point win. The Kings were -1.5-points in that game at home and are now favored on the road? This is a matchup problem for the Kings as they’ve lost 5 straight times this season to New Orleans. The Pelicans are far superior defensively with the 7th best defensive efficiency compared to the Kings who rank 15th. We are expecting a close game throughout but like the Pelicans to get it done at home.

ASA top play on 10* Chicago Bulls -3 vs Atlanta Hawks, 9:30 PM ET - The Hawks have the worst defense in the playoffs, ranking 27th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.194-points per possession and 120.5PPG. On the road their defense is even worse, and they lost road games this season by an average of -5.4PPG. The Bulls were 20-21 SU at home this season with a negative differential of minus -0.2PPG but 6 of their most recent 7 home losses have come against some of the best teams in the NBA. In the most recent meeting between these two teams the Hawks pulled the upset as a +2-point underdog on this floor 113-101. The Bulls had a horrendous shooting night while the Hawks shot lights out. We expect Chicago to shoot much better this time around against a Hawks defense that is 28th in opponents FG% overall and 3PT% defense. Atlanta is 10-17 ATS as a road dog with a negative differential of minus -8.1PPG. The Bulls have a losing ATS record as a home favorite but they do have a positive point differential of +2PPG. The Hawks are without Jalen Johnson which is a huge loss for them even though they get Trae Young back. The Bulls had a few impressive wins late in the season against the T’Wolves, Knicks and Pacers and we expect that momentum to carry over to this game. Lay it with the Bulls.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 221.5 Atlanta Hawks at Chicago Bulls, 9:30 PM ET - Let’s start on the defensive end of the court for both teams. The Hawks were bad defensively, I mean really bad, as in 27th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.194-points per possession. The Bulls weren’t a whole lot better, ranking 21st allowing 1.163PPP. Atlanta is the 6th fastest paced team in the NBA and will try to push the tempo. The Bulls were one of the slowest teams in the league and will want to slow things down. In the 3 meetings this season these two teams combined for 231, 262 and 214 total points. The lowest scoring game of the bunch was on April 1st but we did get 176 field goal attempts in that game. In that particular game the Hawks shot 50% overall and 48% from Deep, while the Bulls struggled at 39% overall and 25% from beyond the Arc. Chicago won’t shoot that poorly again versus this Hawks D that ranks 28th in FG% D and 3PT% defense. Not to mention, the Bulls have the 9th most efficient offense over their last 5 games in the NBA averaging 1.192-points per possession. When Atlanta has been on the road this season those games have averaged 229.3PPG. Chicago home games this season have averaged 233.7PPG. We expect plenty of points in this one…BET OVER!

ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -2 vs Sacramento Kings, 10 PM ET - If this game is like the last three in this rivalry it’s going to be close, but we like the veteran Warriors to pull out a win on the Kings court. The last three meetings have been decided by 1-point each with the Kings winning the last two games. Sacramento had their full complement of players for both of those W’s with Kevin Huerter and Malik Monk who are out here. The Warriors come into this game having won 10 of their last twelve games and have the 4th best Net rating (+9.1) in the NBA over that 12-game stretch. The Kings on the other hand have the 13th best Net rating at +3.8 and are 5-7 SU. Golden State is 25-16 SU on the road this season with the 4th best average point differential at +4.5PPG. The Kings are 24-17 SU at home with the 17th rated average point differential at +2.2PPG. With their shortened rotation the Kings have to rely heavily on Domantas Sabonis who has struggled when facing the Warriors and Draymond Green in the past. Golden State is peaking at the right time and we expect them to move on tonight.

ASA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans Pick -115 vs. LA Lakers, Tuesday 7:30 PM ET - This is an interesting number to say the least. As of this writing, the status of Anthony Davis is in question for the Lakers. We expect AD to play and this line to adjust to the Lakers as the favorite. When that happens, we will be on the Pelicans plus the points and will even venture a small wager as them as a low favorite. These teams just met the other day, and the Pelicans were favored by 3-points. Los Angeles smacked the Pelicans 124-108 behind some great shooting at 55%, well above their season average of 49.9%. New Orleans had a fantastic game from beyond the Arc (15/37 or 41%) and we don’t expect that to change here. The Pelicans have the 4th best 3PT% in the NBA at 38.3% and the Lakers ranked 25th in defending the 3PT line, allowing opponents to hit 37.5% from deep. The Pelicans have the 6th best Net rating in the NBA this season at +4.6, the Lakers are 18th at +0.5. Since the All-Star break the Pels have a +4.8 Net rating differential, the Lakers are +2.2. Contrary to what you might read or hear, the Pelicans are the better team in this matchup. New Orleans ranks 11th in offensive efficiency ratings this season, the Lakers are 15th. When it comes to defense, the Pels rank 7th in DEFF, the Lakers rank 17th. We like the Pelicans to get this home win Tuesday night.

#7/8 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 6 Goals - Carolina Hurricanes at Columbus Blue Jackets, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - The Hurricanes no longer have to worry about winning the division as the Rangers wrapped that up last night.  That is part of the reason Spencer Martin is getting the start in goal tonight and he is sure to be rusty.  Even though Martin has had decent numbers since coming to the Hurricanes this season, he has not played since the final day of February!  Yes, it is more than a month and a half for Martin.  No matter how much one practices and prepares as a goalie, there is still nothing like live game action and Martin could struggle a bit in this one given the rust aspect.  Speaking of struggling, Blue Jackets goalie Jet Greaves is 2-6 with a 3.55 GAA this season!  He also has allowed 4 or more goals in 3 straight starts!  Columbus has been eliminated for quite some time from the post-season and their record is not impressive to say the least.  Part of the problem is they allow far too many goals as they are not strong defensively or in goal.  We capitalize on that here as Carolina will be looking for one final tune-up before the post-season.  The key here though is that the Blue Jackets are likely to give a strong effort in their home ice finale.  Generally speaking they do play better on home ice and they will want to go out with a bang to wrap up their season.  With nothing to lose there should be quite an emphasis on the offensive zone in this one and plenty of attacking.  We do not expect a tight, defensive-minded checking style of game here as this one just does not offer that incentive for either club.  The Jackets have allowed 4 goals per game on average over their last 14 games.  They have scored 3.5 goals per game in the last 6 games on their home ice  The Hurricanes have won 5 straight games and 7 of last 8.  Carolina scored an average of 3.5 goals in those 8 games.  In a rather loosely played affair, there will be plenty of scoring opportunities and both these goalies are unlikely to be sharp for the reasons we noted above.  Look for at least 7 goals in this one!  Over is the play here.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 217.5 Phoenix Suns at Minnesota Timberwolves, 3:40 PM ET - This might be the biggest game on the schedule today as the Wolves can win the West and home court throughout the Western Conference Playoffs. If the Suns win and the Pelicans lose they can claim the 6th spot and avoid the Play-In Tournament. With so much on the line we expect a defensive showdown between these two teams. These same two teams recently met in Phoenix on April 5th and they produced 184 total points. The pace of that game was extremely slow as the two teams combined for only 161 total field goal attempts. Minnesota scored 26 or less points in every quarter, while the Suns scored 25 or less in 3 of the four. The Suns defense has been much better of late as they have allowed 105, 108 and 107 points against the Clippers (2xs) and Kings who both average over 116PPG on the season. We can count on the T’Wolves showing up defensively as they rate the best defensive efficiency unit in the NBA allowing just 1.088PPP. The Under is the play here.

ASA top play on 10* Indiana Pacers -14 vs. Atlanta Hawks, 1:10 PM ET - The Hawks are locked into the 9-10 matchup with the Bulls no matter what the outcome of this game. It will be much more important to get rest and stay healthy for that game. Indiana is treating this game like a Game 7 as a loss could potentially send them to a play in situation as low as the 8 seed. A win for the Pacers and they are guaranteed a top 6 seed. What makes the Pacers a more attractive large favorite than some of the other big chalks today in the NBA is the fact that they can put up a big offensive number here. Indiana is 2nd in offensive efficiency at 1.208PPP and scored 122.9PPG on the season. They are 25-15 SU at home this season and win on their home court by an average of +6PPG. Atlanta has struggled on the road this season with a 14-25 SU record and an average negative differential of minus -4.7PPG. Indiana has put up 157, 150 and 126 points in three games against the Hawks this season who have the 27th rated defensive efficiency rating in the league. The last two Pacer wins against the Hawks have come by 34 and 18-points.

ASA play on Phoenix Suns (Moneyline -190) at Sacramento Kings, 10:40 PM ET - This is a very unique bet for us and not a typical wager, but this situation is warranted. Last night we went against the Kings in a home game against the Pelicans and won. Tonight, the Kings face a rested Suns team that is in full playoff mode and 4-2 SU their last six games. Sacramento on the other hand is playing the second night of a back-to-back, 3rd game in four days and 4th game in six days. They are already short-handed with two starters out and All-Star guard De’Aaron Fox tweaked his ankle last night. When playing without rest the Kings are 5-9 ATS this season with a negative differential of minus -5.9PPG. Phoenix is 15-6 SU when they have a rest advantage over their opponents and they win those games by an average of 7.0PPG. These two teams are 2-2 SU versus each other this season, but the Suns have won the last two meetings. Sacramento has been a home dog just 4 times this season with a 2-2 SU record. Since this is a moneyline bet and we just need the Suns to win, Phoenix is 15-10 SU at a road favorite with an average +/- of +5.2PPG. Both teams have plenty to play for and in a playoff like atmosphere we trust the Super Stars in Durant and Booker.

ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -4.5 vs New Orleans Pelicans – 10 PM ET - Both teams have a ton to play for as far as seeding is concerned in the Western Conference. The Pelicans are trying to hold on to the 6th seed, while the Warriors are looking to move up from the 9th. Scheduling clearly favors the Warriors here who are off an easy win last night vs. Portland while the Pelicans are coming off a huge win in Sacramento last night. Golden State is 9-6-1 ATS when playing without rest this season with an average +/- of +6.1PPG. New Orleans is 7-5 ATS this season when playing without rest but the scheduling situation warrants a bet against them. Golden State looks like a team on a mission with a 9-1 SU record their last ten games, 4 of which have come against other playoff bound teams. New Orleans has won 3 straight, all on the road but this will also be their 3rd game in four nights and 4th in six days. Golden State has won and covered 3 of the last four meetings with the Pels and we like them by 8+ points here.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 223.5 Milwaukee Bucks at Oklahoma City Thunder, 8:10 PM ET - The Bucks are expected to sit nearly everyone tonight and will have a tough time scoring with the reserves playing the majority of the game. They just beat Orlando the other night and limited their starters in that game and as a team they only attempted 84 field goals. They put up 117-points as a result of 51% shooting overall and 38% from beyond the arc. Milwaukee will have a tough time scoring tonight against a Thunder team that is 6th in defensive efficiency on the season allowing just 1.126 points per possession. OKC just put up a big number against the Spurs but prior to that they had scored 113 or less in 5 of their previous six games. In fact, the Thunders net offensive rating over their last ten games ranks 13th. The Bucks defense is currently 7th in defensive net rating over their last 10 games. Milwaukee’s offensive net rating over the course of their last ten games is 19th worst in the league. The Bucks have been one of the fastest paced teams in the NBA this season, but in their last ten games they have slowed considerably and rank 15th in tempo. We don’t see these two teams getting into the 220’s tonight.

ASA top play on 10* NY Knicks -2.5 at Boston Celtics, 7:30 PM ET - The Celtics have nothing left to play for as they have the #1 overall seed locked up through the NBA Finals. New York on the other hand has plenty to play for as they sit in the 2nd seed in the Eastern Conference and could get the #2 seed if they win out or even fall back to the #6 or #7 if they lose out. Because of the circumstances you have to ignore the Celtics season dominance of the Knicks as they’ve won all 4 meetings with New York. Boston is going to sit players in this game (potentially Brown, Holiday, Tatum, Porzingis and Horford) and will waive the white flag early once they fall behind. The Knicks continue to get stellar play from PG Jalen Brunson (averaging 34PPG over his last 10 games) and now have Anunoby back in the lineup after missing several weeks with an injury. We love the Celtics depth but you can’t sit 3-5 of your starters and still expect to win in the NBA. New York clearly shouldn’t be favored on the road here, but the number tells us they are favored for a reason. Bet the Knicks.

#35/36 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 6.5 Goals - Ottawa Senators at Tampa Bay Lightning, Thursday at 7 PM ET - The Senators are off a shutout loss which is certainly a rarity for them, only their 2nd of the season. The other one was recent but was followed by a game that totaled 7 goals. We look for the Senators to again respond off a rare low-scoring loss as they entered that game with 7 of 9 games against Eastern Conference foes totaling at least 7 goals. Ottawa expected to start Anton Forsberg in goal and he has struggled in each of his last 2 appearances and got pulled from his most recent start. On the season Forsberg has an unimpressive 3.36 GAA. He has an .885 save percentage and Lightning goalie Matt Tomkins has a similar unimpressive .883 save percentage this season. Tomkins getting the start here because #1 guy Andrei Vasilevskiy needs a rest and #2 goalie Jonas Johansson has been dealing with a lower-body injury. So TB is using their #3 goalie here and we are sure that the Senators will respond off the shutout loss. Ottawa will struggle, however, on the defensive end as the Lightning continue to pile up goals. Tampa Bay wants to stay sharp offensively heading into the post-season. The Lightning have scored at least 4 goals in 4 straight games. Also, TB has scored an average of 4.4 goals in their current 11-3 run. Considering Tomkins has allowed at least 3 goals in all 4 NHL appearances this season and considering that Tampa is a heavy favorite for a reason, we have this one getting to at least 4-3 and 5-3 is even more likely. Look for at least 7 once again in this one! Over is the play here.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 215.5 Orlando Magic at Milwaukee Bucks, 8 PM ET - I’m going to trust the numbers here and not my own eyes and play Under in the Magic vs Bucks game. I sat through the Celtics/Bucks game last night and my assessment of the Bucks defense is that it’s bad. The Celtics only scored 91 points but it wasn’t because of the Bucks defense, they just missed shots they’d normally make. Boston had several uncontested dunks and wide open 3’s but shot just 40% for the game. With that said, the Magic aren’t a great shooting team at 47.7% (14th) and they hit just 35.3% of their 3-point attempts which ranks 22nd in the NBA. When it comes to efficiency ratings the Magic rank 22nd in the league at 1.136PPP. Orlando is also the 5th slowest paced team in the NBA at 96.8 possessions per game. The Bucks took a huge hit when Giannis went down last night and fortunately for them it looks like he could be back for the playoffs. That’s a big part of their offense that will be missing tonight. Even though I just ripped on their defense, they are currently 11th in defensive net rating over their last 10 games. Milwaukee’s offensive net rating over the course of their last ten games is 20th worst in the league. They have been one of the faster paced teams in the NBA this season, but in their last ten games they have slowed considerably and rank 14th in tempo. With both teams fighting for the 2nd or 3rd seed in the East we expect a defensive playoff type game. Bet UNDER!

ASA top play on 10* Orlando Magic - points vs Houston Rockets, 8:10 PM ET - After the Rockets colossal collapse against the Mavericks on Sunday which eliminated them from the postseason, we are betting they won’t show up for this game versus the Magic. We were very fortunate with our win on the Mavericks in that contest as the Rockets led from start to finish and were up by as many as 22-points at one time. It was a demoralizing loss to their in-state rival and now their season is essentially over. Orlando on the other hand still has plenty to play for as they currently sit 3rd in the East and could move up or even down depending on how they finish the season. Orlando is 18-20 SU away on the season and owns the 7th best defensive efficiency rating on the road as they allow just 1.140-points per possession. After winning 11 straight games the Rockets have now lost 5 straight and 3 of those came at home. Houston got off to a fantastic start at home this season but are now just 12-9 SU their last 21 on their home court. Orlando’s defense is top tier, ranking 8th in defensive net rating in their last 5 games, the Rockets are 30th or last in the NBA over that same 5-game stretch. Looking closer at both teams’ most recent 5-games we see the Magic rank 9th in overall Net rating, the Rockets rank 30th. We don’t see a team that is playing this poorly to all of a sudden rise to the occasion tonight in this meaningless game for them. Lay it with Orlando who wins this one going away.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 212.5 New York Knicks at Chicago Bulls, 8 PM ET - This game has playoff implications for both teams as they jockey for better seeding in the Eastern Conference. New York is looking to move up or just hold on to the 4th position which would mean home court advantage in the first round. The Bulls are essentially battling the Hawk for home court in the play-in game. One thing we know for sure in this game is that it’s going to be slow paced. NY is the slowest paced team in the NBA at 95.3 possessions per game. The Bulls are the 2nd slowest at 96.2 possessions per game. Chicago is average in terms of shooting percentage defense as they rank 15th in overall FG% D and 17th in 3PT%. The Knicks are a poor shooting team at 46.4% (24th) and rank 14th in 3PT% at 36.6%. New York is 11th in opponents FG% shooting and 16th in 3PT% D but the Bulls are 18th offensively at 46.8% and 20th in 3PT%. So, we know neither team shoots it well, both are adequate defensively and it’s going to be a low possession game. These two teams just met on April 5th and produced 208 points on this same court. These two teams have stayed below the total in 7 of their last ten meetings. We will make a play on the Under here.

#675/676 ASA PLAY ON Under – Purdue vs UConn, Monday at 9:20 PM ET - We anticipate this to be a slower paced game with limited possessions which will limit scoring. UConn ranks 328th in adjusted tempo and Purdue is outside the top 200. UConn’s games in the tourney have averaged 65 possessions per game and in their last 2 games vs 2 of the fastest paced teams in the country, Illinois & Bama, they had 69 and 63 possessions respectively. Purdue’s game vs NC State on Saturday had only 64 possessions and the Boilers have averaged 65 possessions per game in their 5 NCAA tourney tilts. Both of these defenses are playing at a high level right now with only 1 of their 10 combined NCAA tourney opponents reaching 70 points. That was UConn’s game on Saturday vs Alabama who came in averaging 90 PPG and only scored 72 despite shooting 48% from beyond the arc. Purdue is allowing just 60 PPG in the Big Dance while the Huskies are allowing just 57 PPG. Purdue’s games in the tourney are 4-1 to the Under and averaging 140 total points and that includes a game they scored 106 by themselves vs Utah State. Take out that one outlier and their games are averaging 131 total points. UConn is 5-0 to the Under in the tourney with their games averaging 139 total points and that includes 2 games vs Bama & Illinois, two of the top offensive teams in the nation who are both very fast paced. Only 3 of the last 12 National Championship games have topped 145 total points. Last year’s National Championship game totaled 135 points (this UConn team vs San Diego State) and we project a similar total on Monday. Defense and slow pace on Monday lead to an Under.

ASA play on OVER 227.5 Miami Heat @ Indiana Pacers, 5:10 PM ET - We expect plenty of points in this Eastern Conference showdown between two teams jockeying for better playoff positioning. Coincidentally, this game features a pair of Wisconsin guards in Tyler Herro and Tyrece Haliburton who I actually coached against and one of my son’s played against growing up. Herro returned to the Heat’s lineup and scored 17 points, had 6 assists and grabbed 5 rebounds on Friday against the Rockets. Herro is the Heat’s second leading scorer behind Jimmy Butler at just under 21PPG. Miami is on a current 5 game Over streak which includes a game against the Blazers were they put up 142-points. Today the Heat face a Pacers defense that is worse than Portland’s in terms of defensive efficiency allowing 1.181-points per possession. What Indiana does do well is score points with a highly efficient offense averaging 122.8PPG with an OEFF of 1.206PPP. Miami is averaging 109.9PPG over their last ten games and our math model has them scoring 115 versus this defense today. Granted the Heat have solid defensive numbers but Indiana scores on everyone including big numbers against three similar defenses lately in the Clippers, Lakers and Warriors. In two meetings this season one of these two teams has scored 140+ points. Both of those games had O/U’s set of 237.5 so you can see for yourself the value in today’s number. Easy call on the OVER here.

ASA top play on Dallas Mavericks (-) vs Houston Rockets, Sunday 3:40 PM ET - The Mavs have 9 of their last ten games and 13 of their last fifteen. They have done it with defense as they have one of the best defensive Net ratings since the All-Star break. Since the ASB they have an average +/- of nearly 7PPG. Houston was red hot with an 11 game winning streak and looked like a team that could sneak into the 10th spot in the Western Conference. But a 4-game losing streak has essentially eliminated them from post season contention. The Rockets haven’t been competitive in their last four games with an average loss margin of 16PPG. These two teams met in Houston on March 31st with the Mavs a 4-point favorite on the road. Dallas won that game by 18-points. The Mavs have won 5 of the last six meetings and they will get another big win here.

ASA top play on OVER 221.5 Atlanta Hawks at Denver Nuggets, 9:10 PM ET - We are betting contrarian here as the public is all over the Under in this game, but we’ll bet Over. This number is simply too low according to our models. Examining recent road games for the Hawks they had O/U numbers of 228.5 in Dallas, 227.5 in Phoenix and 226 vs. the Lakers in L.A. In the two games against the Suns/Lakers they allowed 136 and 128 and both games went Over the number easily. In their most recent game against the Mavs, they faced one of the hottest defenses in the NBA and only managed 95 points on 40% shooting overall, 34% from the 3PT line. Denver is one of the most efficient offenses in the NBA at 1.181-points per possession. Since the All-Star break they have the 3rd best EFG% in the NBA at 57%, the Hawks are 14th at 54.7%. Denver has had a few lower scoring games in recent weeks, but they came against other Western Conference teams fighting for playoff positioning. Now they face a Hawks defense that is 27th in opponents FG% defense, 28th in 3PT% D and they allow 120PPG (27th). This game goes Over the number.

#673/674 ASA PLAY ON Under 146.5 Points – NC State vs Purdue, Saturday 6:05 PM ET - Tough shooting venue here in Arizona (State Farm Stadium home of the AZ Cardinals) with a huge indoor football stadium hosting the Final 4. Neither team is really fast paced with NC State ranking 156th in possessions per game and Purdue 184th . Both have slowed the pace even more in the tourney with none of NC State’s 4 games getting to 70 possessions (including an OT game vs Oakland) while Purdue’s NCAA games have averaged 65 possessions per game. Both defenses are playing at a high level right now with neither allowing 70 points (in regulation) in their 8 combined NCAA tournament games. Purdue’s defense has been really solid all season long ranking in the top 20 in defensive efficiency and NC State’s defense has really played well down the stretch ranking 37th nationally in efficiency since the start of the ACC tourney (8 game sample). In the Dance NC State has 67, 66, 58 and 64 points and that includes 3 opponents who rank in the top 30 in offensive efficiency (Duke, Marquette, and Texas Tech). On the other end we think the Wolfpack will have problems scoring inside vs Purdue and Zach Edey who will make it much more difficult for DJ Burns, who had 29 points vs Duke, to score inside. That means NCSU will have to be lights out from beyond the arc which is not their strength (143rd in 3 point FG%). In their last 2 games Purdue held Tennessee (28th in offensive efficiency) to 66 points and Gonzaga (5th in offensive efficiency) to 68 points. Both of these teams have gone Under the total in 3 of their 4 NCAA tournament games and another is on the way Saturday. Under is our play.

ASA play on OVER 229.5 Cleveland Cavaliers at LA Lakers, 3:40 PM ET - We have lost a little value on this Over as the number was immediately bet up from the opener, but we still feel there is enough wiggle room for an Over bet here. The Lakers are playing fast and scoring points. L.A. is the fastest paced team in the league over a 10-game span at 102.91 possessions per game. In that same time period, they have the 3rd best EFG% at 57.2% and the 7th best offensive net rating at 117.3. The Lakers are averaging 123.1PPG over the past 10 games which is the highest number in the NBA by 3 points. When we continue to evaluate each teams last 10-game stretch we find the Cavs are 27th in defensive net rating while giving up on average 112.4PPG. Cleveland recently got great news with the return of Donovan Mitchell who will immediately bolster their scoring with his 26.75PPG. The Cavs have the 8th best EFG% over the last ten games and rank 12th in overall season FG% at 48% and 16th in 3PT% for the season. The Lakers are below average in both FG% defense and 3PT% on the season. An average NBA game this season will finish with 227.4 total points, but these two offenses are going to get into the 115 to 120 range and push this game Over the total rather easily.

ASA play on Chicago Bulls (-) vs NY Knicks, 8:10 PM ET - Great spot to fade the Knicks and bet on the Bulls. Chicago has been off since Monday and got some much-needed rest and we like the fact they are coming off a home loss. New York played on Thursday night in a home game against the Kings. This is also New Yorks 3rd game in four days, 4th game in six days and 5th in eight. This Knicks roster is already playing short-handed with key injuries to several starters. The Knicks are 4-7 ATS this season when playing without rest with a negative average point differential of minus -2.5PPG. New York is fighting for the 4th seed and home court in the first round of the playoffs, but the Bulls are fighting for their playoff lives as they currently sit 9th in the East. The Knicks normally enough a huge advantage on the offensive glass but that won’t be the case tonight against a Bulls team that is nearly as good as them when it comes to O-boards. The more desperate Bulls get this home win given the scheduling circumstances.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 228.5 Golden State Warriors at Houston Rockets – 8:10 PM ET - This game will have a playoff vibe as the Rockets are fighting to get into the top 10 in the West, while the Warriors are looking to hold on to the 10th spot or move up. Since the All-Star break the Warriors are giving up 110PPG. Golden State has the 3rd best defensive Net rating in the league over a 5-game period and have held 4 of their last six foes to 100 or less points. The Warriors have slowed their pace of play considerably in recent games as they rank 18th in pace over their most recent 5-game span. The same can be said for the Rockets who averaged 99.53 possessions per game for the season but in their last 5 games that number has dipped to 97.76. Houston has the 11th best defensive Net rating over a 5-game period at 111.6. If we continue to focus on each teams last 5 games we find that both teams rank in the bottom half of the NBA in Net offensive ratings too. Houston has really struggled with shooting in that same stretch of games with the 27th rated EFG% at 53.5%. The Rockets have scored 107 or less in 3 straight games and 110 or less in 4 of five. When these two teams met on this floor back in October they produced just 201 total points. We are betting these two teams don’t get into the 220’s.

#681/682 ASA PLAY ON Over the Total – Indiana State vs Seton Hall, Thursday at 7 PM ET - Two peaking offenses should run this game into the 160’s on Thursday night. Seton Hall has scored 91 and 84 points in their last 2 games vs UNLV and UGA who both rank higher than Indiana State in defensive efficiency. The Pirates have averaged at least 1.14 PPP in each of their last 3 games and in their 4 NIT games they’ve shot 48% overall and 39% from beyond the arc. And every defense they’ve faced in the NIT to this point is better than ISU’s defense efficiency wise. The Hall will put up points in this game. We think the Sycamores will as well. They are a fantastic shooting team ranking 12th nationally in offensive efficiency, 1st in eFG%, 11th in 3 point FG%, and 3rd in 2 point FG%. In their 4 NIT games they’ve gotten to 100 points twice and they are averaging 90.5 PPG in those 4 games. While Seton Hall’s defense is solid (35th in defensive efficiency), State just put up 100 on Utah (top 50 defense) and 85 on Cincinnati (top 20 nationally in defensive efficiency). Indiana State likes to play fast on offense (37th nationally in adjusted tempo) and while Seton Hall’s year long numbers aren’t overly fast, they have decided to up the tempo in the NIT. In fact, since the start of the NIT tourney, the Hall ranks 45th nationally in tempo. We expect plenty of offensive possessions in this one. We don’t expect many “lost” points at the FT line in this one either with ISU hitting 80% of their freebies on the year and Seton Hall making 78%. The players have raved about the shooting lines and bouncy floor at Hinkle Field House saying it’s definitely a shooter’s gym. If the semi finals were any indication (190 total points and 151 total points) they were correct. Over is the call.

ASA play on Phoenix Suns (-) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers, 10 PM ET - Scheduling has a lot to do with this assessment on this game as the Cavs are in a tough spot here having played in Utah last night. Not only that, but the Cavaliers are playing their 3rd game in four days and 4th game in six days. The Suns are rested as their last game came on April 1st, a win in New Orleans. Phoenix is facing a brutal 3-game stretch coming up against Western Conference contenders which makes this game extremely important. The Suns are also 14-6 SU with an average +/- of +6.4PPG when they hold a rest advantage over their opponents. Cleveland is 5-7 ATS when playing without rest and has a negative point differential in those games of minus -3.2PPG. When we evaluate each teams last ten games we find the Suns have a +3.0 Net differential, the Cavs are minus -5.2 AND the Suns have faced a much tougher schedule over that 10-game span. In this must-win situation we like the Suns by double-digits.