Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-30-20 | Seahawks v. Eagles OVER 48.5 | Top | 23-17 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 48.5 Seattle Seahawks @ Philadelphia Eagles, Monday 8:15 PM ET - We like the bargain number here as this game opened with a Total of 53 and slowly trickled down to the current number of 48.5. You know us, we love the extra value and will put ourselves on the same side as Vegas here. Much of the talk surrounding the Eagles has been the poor play of QB Carson Wentz. But it’s clearly not all his fault as he’s been sacked 40 times this season. He should be able to get rid of the football much quicker in this game against a Seahawks defense that ranks 30th in opposing QB’s completion percentage against them. Let’s also consider that Wentz has thrown 14 INT’s and fumbled 4 times so turnovers could lead to quick scores for the Seahawks. Seattle allows the most yards per game in the NFL this season at 435YPG but they also rack up 400 yards per game offensively which is good for 3rd overall. The Hawks give up an average of 29PPG (27th) but scored 32PPG which ranks 2nd. The lowest total posted on a Seattle game in the last eight weeks was 54.5 which is related to their high-powered offense and bad defense. Philly on the other hand is coming off a game in Cleveland where the total was 45.5, just a few points lower than this number, and the conditions were horrendous. Prior to that the Eagles had played three straight division games which tend to be lower scoring. Any way you cut it this shapes up to me higher scoring. |
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11-30-20 | Arkansas-Little Rock v. Duquesne UNDER 144.5 | Top | 76-66 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 144.5 Arkansas Little Rock vs. Duquesne, Monday 4PM ET A team we will have our eyes on early in the season will be Duquesne. They return a ton of talent (7 of top 8 scorers) to a team that finished 21-9 SU last season but this is their first game of the season while UALR has two games under their belts so we aren’t interested in betting a side here. What we do like here is a lower scoring game with two very deliberate teams in terms of pace of play. Last season the Dukes ranked 244 in terms of average possession length as it took them on average 17.9 seconds to take a shot. They had an adjusted tempo of 67.8 which ranked 211th. They protected the rim with a top 10 ranking in block percentage and defended the 3-point line extremely well allowing 30.1% from beyond the arc. Arkansas Little Rock is 1-1 on the season and put up 70 and 71 points respectively in their two games. They shot better than expected in both and only attempted 51 and 48 field goal attempts in both games. That ties into the fact they only attempted 53 field goals per game last season which ranks 333 out of 353 schools. Last season UALR had a decent overall offensive efficiency rating but those lofty numbers came because of playing in the Sun Belt, which typically plays fast, and isn’t known for their defense. According to our math models this game projects out to just 134 total points being scored. The bet here is UNDER. |
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11-29-20 | Chiefs v. Bucs OVER 56 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 48 m | Show |
#271/272 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 56 Points – Kansas City @ Tampa Bay, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - To hold Tampa’s offense in check, you need to have an elite pass rush. Brady is not great when under pressure but if he has time, he’ll pick you apart. Case in point, last week when the Bucs faced a top notch Rams pass rush, they were held to 251 total yards but still scored 24 points. A few week’s prior to that they faced New Orleans, who is top 5 in sack percentage, and the Bucs scored just 3 points. In their other meeting with the Saints they had 23 points. If we take away their games vs top 10 rush defenses (sack percentage) the Bucs are averaging 34.5 PPG. KC’s rush defense ranks 21st in the NFL. The TB has solid overall stats but much of that came early in the season. They have allowed 26 PPG over last 5 games and only 1 of those teams (Rams) ranked in the top 10 in total offense. Now they face a KC offense that ranks 2nd in the NFL in total offense, 2nd in YPP, and 1st in scoring. The Chiefs are rolling offensively scoring at least 33 points in 4 straight games. They’ve been held under 30 points only 3 times this season. Their defense is another story. They’ve been giving up points and yardage. The last 2 games alone, vs Panthers & Raiders, they’ve allowed 31 points in each and over 400 yards in each. They’ve allowed 30+ points in 3 of their last 6 games and 2 of the games they did not they were facing the Jets & Broncos, two of the worst offenses in the NFL. Both of these teams like to play at a fast tempo with TB 10th and KC 14th in pace of play. Those numbers are actually deceiving as they should both be ranked higher in pace of play. They are ranked 3rd and 4th in first half pace of play and because they have gotten out to some big leads, they’ve slowed down in the 2nd half which affect their overall pace. We don’t see either team getting out to a big lead here. We look for a back and forth game in perfect weather in Tampa (80 degrees and light winds) and we’ll grab the OVER. |
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11-29-20 | Saints -6 v. Broncos | Top | 31-3 | Win | 100 | 25 h 59 m | Show |
#267 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New Orleans -6 over Denver, Sunday at 4:00 PM ET - Looking at this number we can compare it to the Miami/Denver game last week and we see the value with the Saints. Last week a pretender the Miami Dolphins were just favored in Denver by 4 and now the Saints who might be the 2nd best team in the NFL are only -6.5. Last week we felt the Broncos would be able to run on a Dolphins defense that is not good against the rush and they did it with 189yds. But Denver won't run here against the #1 ranked rushing D in the NFL allowing just 74RYPG and that puts the pressure on QB Drew Lock - who 2 weeks ago threw 4 INTS. On the season Lock has 7 TD’s and 11 INT’s. New Orleans defense has 11 INT's this season tied for 4th most and could feast on Lock and the Broncos offense. In fact, the Saints produced 8 sacks last week vs. Atlanta and are 4th in the NFL at 3.2 sacks per game. Just how dominant was the Saints defense last week against the Falcons? New Orleans just held Atlanta to 14 first downs and 52 rushing yards. Saints QB Taysum Hill answered a lot of questions last week with his performance by going 18/23 passing with 233 yards NO INT’s. He’s also a duel threat under center with 51 yards rushing and 2 TD’s. Consider this, last week the Saints averaged 6.8 Yards Per Play a FULL YARD more than their season average with Drew Brees. The Saints also average 10 Yards per pass attempt against the Falcons which is significantly better than their season average of 7.4YPPA. Denver leans on a defense that is 9th in overall defensive efficiency but that typical advantage gets nullified here against a Saints offense that is clicking. The Saints have averaged 30PPG on: Tampa (2nd DEFF), San Francisco (10th DEFF) and Chicago (4th DEFF). Just looking at raw data, New Orleans has a huge advantage offensively with the 5th most efficient offense compared to Denver who is last. New Orleans has the 3rd best Margin of Victory this season at +7.3PPG / Denver loss margin -6.1PPG 28th in NFL. We like the Saints laying under a TD here. |
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11-28-20 | Rutgers v. Purdue -11 | Top | 37-30 | Loss | -107 | 20 h 26 m | Show |
#194 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Purdue -11 over Rutgers, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET - We love this situation for the Boilers. They have lost 2 straight vs Northwestern & Minnesota so this is a very important home game for them. Last week’s loss @ Minnesota was the infamous invisible offensive pass interference game. Purdue scored a TD with under 1:00 remaining that seemingly gave them the win. However, a terrible offensive pass interference was called taking away the TD and Purdue threw an interception on the next play in their 34-31 loss. That game was on Friday which gave them an extra day to get ready for this must win game. The Boilermakers outgained Minnesota by 100 yards in the game & had 8 more first downs in the loss. We really liked what we saw from QB Plummer as he threw for 367 yards and 3 TD’s. He was replacing O’Connell who was the starter (out with injury) however we don’t consider Plummer a back up. He started 7 games a year ago and was in a neck & neck battle with O’Connell for this year’s starting job. We expect another big game from him vs a leaky Rutgers pass defense that ranks 95th nationally allowing 265 YPG through the air. Another huge addition for Purdue last week was WR Moore who was back in the line up for the first time this year. He is their best offensive weapon and accounted for 136 total yards last week. Purdue’s offense will put plenty of points on the board here vs a Rutgers defense that has allowed 37 points or more in 3 of their last 4 games. Rutgers had a crushing home defeat last week. They faced a Michigan team that obviously is not nearly as good as they’ve been in the past, but they still have the name recognition so it was a huge game for Rutgers. They jumped out to a 17-0 lead, then went down 35-27 late in the game, had to score a TD + 2 point conversion with under 1:00 minute remaining to send the game to OT. On top of that, the Scarlet Knights then missed a FG in OT that would have given them the win and they wound up losing in 3 OT’s. Now they have to go on the road and we just don’t see them playing well here after last week’s situation. Plus, while they are improved, they still only have 1 win vs Michigan State (Sparty turned the ball over 7 times in that game) and they’ve been outgained in every game. Even with their improvement, this Rutgers team ranks 91st nationally in total offense and 92nd in total defense. This is a bad match up for them vs a Purdue team that is now at full strength on offense and is flying under the radar right now. Rutgers has been a terrible road team with a 2-19 SU record their last 21 away from home and 17 of those losses have come by double digits. We also like the line value here. We have Purdue as 14 point favorite in our power ratings. Last week Michigan was favored by this same number (-11) @ Rutgers and Purdue is better than Michigan this yet only laying -11 here. Take the Boilermakers as this game has blowout potential. |
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11-27-20 | Iowa State +1.5 v. Texas | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 29 h 17 m | Show |
#143 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Iowa State Cyclones (+) over Texas Longhorns, Friday at 12:00 PM ET - Texas has covered 4 straight games in this series and the Longhorns are at home here and very little separates these teams in the rankings and yet the line is a pick'em! This is even though the last time these teams met in Austin (just two years ago), UT won the game by two touchdowns and won the yardage battle by nearly 200 yards. That was then, this is now, and the Cyclones are positioned well here. Iowa State has won 6 of their last 7 games and the only loss in that stretch was a tight 24-21 defeat. The Cyclones will take advantage of a Texas team playing for the first time in 3 weeks. A scheduled bye week for the Longhorns was followed by a postponement last week as UT's game versus Kansas was pushed back to the end of the season. A break is good but not when it is too much of a break. Remember that the Longhorns also did not have a game in mid-October either. That means this game, near the very end of November, was preceded by just 3 games for UT since the 11th of October! The Longhorns were a favorite in this game when the line first popped up and though the line is moving toward a pick'em, it is worth mentioning that the Horns have a strong tendency to not perform as well at home under coach Herman. In fact, the Longhorns have covered only 3 of their last 13 as a home favorite! Iowa State has plenty of confidence entering this game as they have exploded for an average of 45 points per game during their current 3-game winning streak. QB Brock Purdy and the Cyclones will take advantage of a Texas pass defense allowing over 300 passing yards per game in its last 4 games. Though the Horns run defense has been solid, Iowa State running back Breece Hall is leading the nation in rushing with nearly 1,200 yards on the ground plus he has run for 15 touchdowns already this season. Hall is a big reason the Cyclones offensive attack is so balanced and they will give the UT defense trouble in this one. As for the Iowa State defense, they have held their last 5 opponents to an average of only 297 yards per game. Texas has been the SU winner in 7 of the last 8 meetings in Austin but there is a reason the line on this game is set the way it is. Though Iowa State did win against the Longhorns last season, they certainly have been reminded of how their last visit to Austin played out. Per our computer math model, all signs point to the Cyclones getting some payback here for an ugly performance in their most recent visit to UT. This one is set up for a big road win and Iowa State is the play here. |
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11-26-20 | Texans v. Lions OVER 51 | Top | 41-25 | Win | 100 | 30 h 7 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 51 Points – Houston @ Detroit, Thursday at 12:30 PM ET Two poor defenses facing off on Thanksgiving and we like the OVER here. Houston ranks 31st in total defense while Detroit ranks 27th. They both rank low in overall defensive efficiency as well with Houston 29th and Detroit 25th (per Football Outsiders). Each team’s offensive strength is their passing game and that matches up very well with the defensive weakness on the other side of the ball. The Texans ranks 22nd in overall pass defense and 27th in defensive yards per pass attempt. Detroit ranks 25th in pass defense and 26th in defensive yards per pass attempt. We expect both offenses to move the ball very well in this game. Detroit was shut out at Carolina last week 20-0. We like that situation as we fully expect them to focus offensively after that embarrassing output. They were also missing a number of key weapons that look like they may return on Thursday including RB Swift, WR’s Golladay & Amendola, and TE Hockenson. Offense hadn’t been a problem for Detroit prior to last week. In fact, they’ve faced 4 teams ranked in the top 10 in total defense this year and they’ve scored 30, 29, 23, and 21 points in those games. Now they face one of the worst defenses in the NFL and we look for a big performance from the Lion’s offense. The Houston defense has allowed at least 28 points in 6 of their 10 games and they only time they allowed less than 20 was vs Jacksonville (terrible offense) and vs Cleveland with 35+ MPH winds in a 10-7 game. Houston’s offense has really started playing well as of late after a very tough early season schedule. If we throw out their game in gale force winds in Cleveland where nobody was going to score points, the Texans have averaged 28 PPG over their last 5. We know the conditions will be perfect in the Dome in Detroit. Those conditions and the fast track has led to some very high scoring games in Detroit this year. In fact, all of the Lion’s 4 home games have gone OVER and 10 of the last 11 games here have gone OVER. This year they’ve scored 64, 62, 57 and 50 points in their home games. The last 2 scores listed were vs Washington & Chicago who have very good defenses (both top 10) and terrible offenses (both bottom 5) and they still were high scoring games. The final projected score here is right around Houston 27 – Detroit 24 and we expect both teams to top those numbers. Take the OVER. |
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11-23-20 | Rams v. Bucs UNDER 48.5 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -114 | 29 h 24 m | Show |
#473/474 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 48.5 Points – LA Rams @ Tampa Bay, Monday at 8:15 PM ET- Two of the top defenses in the NFL facing off here and we grab the UNDER. The Bucs & Rams rank 2nd and 3rd in total defense, 1st & 2nd in YPP defense, 8th & 3rd in scoring defense, and 1st & 5th in rush defense. The offenses have had their moments but when facing top defenses, they’ve both been held in check for the most part. Tampa has played 3 top 10 defense (YPP defense) and they’ve scored 3, 19, and 23 points in those games. The Rams have scored more than 24 points only once in their last 6 games. They’ve faced 3 defenses ranked in the top 10 in total defense and scored 16, 24, and 30 in those games. Their 30 point output was vs Washington. So combining the two they’ve only topped 24 points only once in 6 games vs top tier defensive teams. The Rams rely heavily in the run ranking 8th in rushing yards and 5th in carries per game. They face the #1 rush defense in the NFL here as Tampa has allowed just 76 YPG on the ground on 3.3 YPC. Tampa hasn’t been a great running team this year (23rd in the NFL) and if they do try to establish a ground game, the Rams rank 5th in the NFL allowing just 96 YPG rushing. So the QB’s will play a big role here. The problem is, both defense are very good at pressuring the QB and neither QB is very good under pressure. These 2 defenses are 2nd and 4th in sacks per game and 4th and 5th in sack percentage. Brady has long been known as a poor passer under pressure because he can’t move. This year he is completing only 46% of his passes under pressure which ranks him 29th when we limit it to QB’s who’ve started at least 2 games this year. Goff is worse. He comes in at 38% which ranks him 38th when compared to all other QB’s who’ve started at least 2 games. We anticipate a grinder here with the 2 defenses being the best units on the field. Take the UNDER. |
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11-22-20 | Packers v. Colts OVER 51 | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 26 h 32 m | Show |
#461/462 ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 51 Points – Green Bay @ Indianapolis, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - Indy’s defense has some impressive overall numbers. They rank #1 in the NFL in total defense allowing 290 YPG. The problem is, we feel those defensive numbers are inflated because they’ve only played ONE team this year that is currently ranked in the top 10 in total offense. That was a Minnesota team that currently ranks 8th in total offense, however that game was way back on September 20th when Minnesota was still finding their footing. The Vikes are MUCH better now offensively than they were back then. Facing the Bears, Bengals, Jags, and Jets (4 teams ranked 22nd or lower in YPP offense) tends to pad your defensive numbers. On a similar note, the Colt’s pass defense has very good numbers but they’ve played just ONE QB ranked in the top 10 in QBR. On Sunday they face Aaron Rodgers who ranks #1 in the NFL in QBR this season. The Packers have scored at least 30 points in 6 of their 9 games this year and are off a subpar offensive effort vs Jacksonville last week (24 points in high winds) so we expect a very good performance on that side of the ball. They are fairly healthy as well with RB Jones getting back to full strength, WR Adams cleared to play and WR Lazard ready to go as well. The Indy offense is rolling right now as well scoring at least 30 in 3 of their last 4 games. They face a GB defense that has looked better the last 2 weeks holding Jacksonville (terrible offense) to 20 points and SF (without their QB or RB) to 17 points. Prior to that when they actually faced decent offenses they allowed 30+ points to TB, Minnesota, and New Orleans. Perfect playing conditions in the dome help to make this a high scoring affair. In their indoor games this year where weather was not a factor Indy is averaging 29 PPG. For GB they’ve played 3 dome games this season and scored 43, 37, and 35 points in those games. Take the OVER |
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11-22-20 | Steelers v. Jaguars +10.5 | Top | 27-3 | Loss | -109 | 23 h 59 m | Show |
#460 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Jacksonville +10.5 over Pittsburgh, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - Talk about a ho-hum type game for the Steelers. They are coming off a division game vs the Bengals and they have a huge rematch on deck vs Baltimore. Not only do they play their arch rival Ravens next, it’s on Thanksgiving Day just 4 days away. We wouldn’t be at all surprised if Pittsburgh was flat as a pancake in this game. Pittsburgh has a history of playing to the level of their competition. This year alone they went to the wire with the Broncos, Cowboys, and Texans. Just a few weeks ago they went to Dallas as a big favorite, got outgained, and never led until 2:00 minutes to go in the game (Pitt win 24-19). Speaking of playing to the level of competition, the Steelers are now 0-7 ATS the last 7 times they’ve been favored by 10 or more. Dating back to 1980, they are just 25-40 ATS as a double digit favorite (38%). Pitt is really struggling to run the ball as of late which we like to see if fading a big favorite. Over their last 3 games they’ve run for 48, 46, and 44 yards. That’s it. And 2 of those games came against Dallas & Cincinnati who rank 31st and 27th respectively defending the run. Despite their record Jacksonville is showing some fight. Last week they’ve gave a very good Green Bay team all they could handle at Lambeau in a 24-20 loss. The Jags, unlike the Steelers, have started to run the ball very well outrushing each of their last 3 opponents. During that stretch they rushed for 140, 115, and 109 yards vs Chargers, Texans, and Packers. New starting QB Luton has looked solid in his 2 starts taking both Houston and GB to the wire in tight losses (473 yards passing). Defensively they’ve also improved as of late. After allowing 30 or more points in 6 straight games, they’ve held Houston and Green Bay, 2 of the top 10 offenses on a YPP basis, to 27 & 24 points. Jacksonville is still putting forth solid effort. Pittsburgh is in a tough spot playing their fourth road game in five weeks. We like the Jags to hang around in this game and cover the big number. |
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11-21-20 | Liberty v. NC State OVER 64.5 | Top | 14-15 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 37 m | Show |
#359/360 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER 64.5 Points – NC State vs Liberty, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - NC State is known to put up big points but they can't stop teams. That latter point is bad news for the Wolfpack as they now take on a red hot Liberty team that is 7-0 this season! The Flames are scoring 42.3 points per game on an average of 510 yards per contest! Liberty's offense is averaging 6.83 yards per play which ranks them in the top 20 teams in the nation this season for offensive efficiency out of more than 125 teams! NC State is allowing 456.5 yards per game and will struggle to stop an incredibly balanced Flames attack! Liberty is averaging 255 yards per game both rushing and passing! As for the Wolfback offense, they are averaging 38.8 points per game at home this season. Those 4 home games included facing two teams with winning records including a recent match-up with Miami (7-1 on the season). NC State scored 41 points against the Hurricanes! The Wolfpack are off an under (barely!) in their most recent game but that under was just their 2nd in 8 games this season! Additionally, the over is 6-1 in Liberty's 7 games this season! NC State is off of a game in which they surrendered only 22 points but that was against a Florida State team that has had major QB issues and is having a miserable season. Now the Wolfpack face Liberty QB Willis who has a TD-INT ratio of 15-1 plus has rushed for 700 yards this season too! That type of dual threat QB is going to give a bad defense like NC State's a lot of trouble. Taking a look at the Wolfpack offense again, they even slowed down last week because they had the game in hand (it was 28-3 in the 2nd quarter) but in this one a talented and confident Liberty team isn't going to wither away like the Seminoles did. That is why this one has the makings of a back and forth shootout as the Flames offense has helped lead the way to them becoming a ranked team this season! A lot of talent on that side of the ball for Liberty but now their defense will have its hands full with an equally talented NC State offense as both teams take advantage of beautiful weather conditions in this one too. The early forecast for Saturday night in Raleigh, NC is temperatures in the 50s with no precipitation and no wind either! Shootout in Raleigh! Per our computer math modeling, both teams are likely getting into upper-30's in this one and that means an easy OVER expected here! |
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11-21-20 | San Diego State -114 v. Nevada | Top | 21-26 | Loss | -114 | 22 h 18 m | Show |
#387 ASA PLAY ON 10* San Diego State -115 over Nevada, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Most may look at this line and wonder why a 4-0 Nevada team is a home underdog in this game. We look at it and see line value with the road favorite. When these two met last year San Diego State was a 17 point favorite. Nevada pulled the huge upset in that game winning 17-13 despite getting outgained by nearly 100 yards. That loss has put a huge emphasis on this game for the Aztecs. Has Nevada improved that much where they go from a 17 point dog to just a 1.5 point dog? It may look that way with their 4-0 record but we don’t think so. The Wolfpack have played arguably the worst schedule in college football. Their last 3 games have come against UNLV, Utah State, and New Mexico, three teams we have power rated in the bottom 15 teams in the nation. Last week they barely squeaked by a New Mexico team that has won just 2 of their last 22 games. The yardage was basically even in that game yet the Lobos outrushed Nevada 141 to 52 in that 27-20 Wolfpack win. That simply emphasized Nevada’s struggles in the running game this year. Despite their easy schedule, they are averaging only 99 YPG on the ground. SDSU will have a HUGE advantage running the ball as they average 280 YPG rushing this season which is 4th nationally with Nebraska transfer Bell leading the way. The Nevada offense has solid numbers on the year but again, the last 3 defenses they’ve faced rank 122nd, 116th, and 107th nationally. San Diego State’s defense ranked 5th nationally last year and they are sitting at #3 in total defense so far this year. With Nevada unable to run the ball, they obviously put the ball in the air a lot. Their QB Strong averages 42 pass attempts per game. He may have a tough time in this game vs the Aztecs who rank 3rd nationally in pass defense this year. That includes holding a pass happy Hawaii team who ranks in the top 5 in passing yards this year to barely 200 yards in last week’s 34-10 SDSU win. The Aztecs have put massive pressure on opposing QB’s this year ranking 10th in the country in sack percentage and 11th in sacks per game. The Nevada offensive line is the weak point of this offense and they rank 107th in sacks allowed despite playing weak opponents. This will be, by far, the best defense and defensive front they’ve faced this season. Now we realize SDSU also played UNLV and Utah State this year but they’ve also faced a very solid San Jose State team and a decent Hawaii team. If we look at the 2 common opponents (UNLV & Utah St) the Aztecs outscored them 72-13 with a total yardage edge of +593 yards and a rushing edge of +511 yards. Nevada outscored those 2 opponents 71-28 with a total yardage edge of +481 and a rushing edge of just 33 yards. SDSU has simply been the much better program as of late with a 38-15 record over the last 4 years compared to Nevada’s 23-25 mark over the same period. We like the team that is stronger in the trenches, with the better defense, and the better running game to win this one. The motivated Aztecs get their revenge here. |
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11-20-20 | New Mexico v. Air Force -7 | Top | 0-28 | Win | 100 | 29 h 6 m | Show |
#330 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Air Force Falcons (-) over New Mexico Lobos, Friday at 9:30 PM ET - This line opened up at double digits and, as of Thursday afternoon, is down to a -7 on the Falcons. We like the line value here with a move that we fully understand here but absolutely disagree with. Part of the reason for the move is Rocky Long is the defensive coordinator for New Mexico and he has, in his pedigree, a history of stopping option teams. However, he doesn't have the personnel this season to do it. Three of the key components to properly stopping an option attack are game-planning, talent, and execution. Long can game-plan all he wants but he still has to have the proper personnel and disciplined players to go out and execute and this is a bad Lobos defense. So far this season they have not given up much on the ground but that's simply because teams know they can throw all over them. In other words it does not necessarily mean that New Mexico is built to stop the run, it just means that when a team is allowing 410.3 passing yards per game why not throw against them? That is the type of defense we're talking about here...a very bad one! The Lobos have lost all 3 of their games this season and each of the last two seasons they were beaten badly in their match-ups with Air Force. The Falcons won those games by an average margin of 20 points per game. Also, AF averaged 345.5 yards per game on the ground and 236 yards through the air. The Falcons enter this game off back to back losses but had over 400 yards rushing in their most recent game and that was against a tough Boise State team! Now Air Force enters well-rested as they have had some covid issues result in postponements in recent weeks. They will be ready to go here and just like in their season opener against Navy (we had the Falcons in that blowout win of 40-7) when everyone doubts Air Force they seem to be at their best. Look for them to take advantage of a Lobos offense likely to again be without QB Tevaka Tuioti (doubtful - concussion) and that means we likely again see Trae Hall under center. Hall has a 0-2 TD-INT ratio this season and has been sacked 4 times in just about 40 dropbacks to pass plus he has not had success running the ball. He also completes only about 50% of his passes. On the other side of the ball, again Long just doesn't have the guys to be a successful defense. This team lost nearly every starter from last year's defense and they are especially thin up front. New Mexico has been playing their games in, and practicing in, Vegas due to covid issues in New Mexico. Air Force has been at home and hungry to get back on the field after the Falcons lost at home against Boise State 3 weeks ago. The Falcons have extra rest while the Lobos are playing a 4th straight week and the AF ground game will eventually wear them down. The Falcons roll in this one. This one has the makings of a home blowout and we're laying the points with Air Force. |
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11-19-20 | Cardinals v. Seahawks -2.5 | Top | 21-28 | Win | 100 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Seattle -3 over Arizona - Value is on Seattle here. They are favored by 3 in this game which is the same number they were favored @ Arizona just a few weeks ago. Zona won that game 37-34 in OT but Seattle outgained the Cards and led by 10 with just 3:00 minutes remaining. Seahawks have lost 2 in a row which is why this number is low. Those losses were @ Buffalo (Seattle had 4 turnovers) and @ LA Rams who were coming off a bye. They are still undefeated at home this year. Arizona hasn’t been on the road since October 19th. They are coming off a 3 game home stand where all 3 went to the wire (Seattle, Miami, and Buffalo). Last week they pulled a miracle win over the Bills on a hail mary as time expired. Arizona is just 2-2 on the road despite playing one of the easier road slates in the NFL (Jets, Cowboys, Panthers, and Niners) who combined for a 9-29 overall record. Arizona’s defensive line is banged up with only 3 healthy players and Seattle gets RB Hyde back from injury here. The Seahawks rushed for 200 yards in the first meeting and they should have success on the ground here which opens things up for QB Wilson. Speaking of Wilson, he has NEVER lost 3 games in a row since coming to Seattle. We don’t think he will here. If he can limit turnovers tonight (Seattle had 3 in the first meeting) we like the home team to cover. |
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11-18-20 | Western Michigan v. Central Michigan +1.5 | Top | 52-44 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 20 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Central Michigan Chippewas (+) vs Western Michigan Broncos, Wednesday at 7:00 PM ET: Game #314 |
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11-16-20 | Vikings v. Bears +3.5 | Top | 19-13 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Chicago +3.5 over Minnesota, Monday at 8:20 PM ET - This line opened with the Bears favored by -1.5 and has swung a full 4 points to Minnesota -3.5. Too much in our opinion and the Vikings don’t justify laying more than 3 in this game. Sure the Vikes are 2-0 since their bye week beating Green Bay and Detroit, but they were +6 @ GB and just -3 at home vs Detroit. Now they are laying more than that @ Chicago? Bad line. Minnesota was able to run the ball at will vs those 2 defenses which rank 23rd and 24th in the NFL in YPC allowed. Now they face a top 10 rush defense with Chicago allowing just 4.1 YPC. Last week the Bears faced a Tennessee offense that ranks 6th in the NFL in rushing and held them to just 92 yards on the ground on 3.0 YPC. Derrick Henry had just 68 yards on 21 attempts. The Bears lost that game but actually outplayed the Titans on the road with a +11 first down edge and +147 total yardage edge. If Chicago can slow down Dalvin Cook that places the pressure on QB Cousins to win the game. We know how that goes as he is known for not stepping up in big moments and is 0-9 SU on Monday night football. The Vikings offense has looked good but they’ve played mainly average to poor defenses. In fact, 7 of their 8 opponents rank 19th or lower in YPP defense this season. The one top 10 defense they played this year was Indy and the Vikings scored only 11 points in that game. Chicago will be the best defense they’ve faced since that game which was back on September 20th. The Bears offense looked much better last week putting up 375 yards on Tennessee. Tonight they face a Minnesota defense that ranks a few spots below Tennessee when it comes to YPP defense (25th overall) and we expect Chicago to do enough on offense to have a great shot to win this game outright. The Bears are 4-0 SU vs the Vikings since Matt Nagy took over as HC and we give them a great shot at making that 5-0 tonight. If not, we expect a very close game and getting over a FG at home with the much better defense is our pick. Take the Bears. |
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11-15-20 | Bills v. Cardinals -2.5 | Top | 30-32 | Loss | -106 | 23 h 34 m | Show |
#268 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Arizona -2.5 over Buffalo, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET - Buffalo picked up a huge home win last week over Seattle 44-34. However, the yardage was about dead even for the game but Seattle had 4 TO’s and Buffalo scored points after each one of those turnovers. Prior to last week, the Buffalo offense had not been playing well at all. In their previous 4 games they had scored 16, 17, 18 and 24 points. Their offense looked much better last week but they were playing the last ranked defense in the NFL (Seattle) along with the 4 TO’s which put the offense in a number of good field position situations. The Buffalo defense continued to struggle giving up 6.7 YPP. This defense is not even close to the same level as last year’s that allowed a full 1.0 YPP less. Big win and now on the road will be tough for Buffalo who hasn’t played on the road since beating the hapless Jets 18-10 on October 25. Arizona is playing their third straight home game and coming off a loss. They should have some extra motivation off that loss and the fact that they play 3 of their next 4 on the road. This is a big game for Arizona. Last week they lost 34-31 vs Miami despite outgaining the Fins by 130 yards and +1.3 YPP. The Cards come into this one ranking #1 in the NFL in total offense and #2 in rushing. That’s going to be a problem for a Buffalo defense that has struggled to stop the run this year allowing 125 YPG. Despite their records (Arizona is 5-3 / Buffalo is 7-2) the Cards own the better point differential (+54 to +9) and the better YPP differential (+0.5 to +0.3). Arizona QB Murray has a big day vs the Buffalo defense and the Cards get the home cover. |
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11-14-20 | Hawaii v. San Diego State -10 | Top | 10-34 | Win | 100 | 25 h 56 m | Show |
#192 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON San Diego State Aztecs (-) over Hawaii Warriors, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET - Situations don't get much better than this. The Aztecs just lost at home by a double digit margin even though they were a double digit favorite versus San Jose State! Undoubtedly, there will be extra focus from San Diego State this week at home after what happened right here last week. Not only that, after beating the Warriors 6 straight times both SU and ATS in MWC action, Hawaii has beaten the Aztecs each of the past two seasons including once as a huge underdog. So this is a double revenge spot for San Diego State and they are catching the Warriors at the perfect time to exact that revenge. Hawaii is off of a home win over New Mexico but they allowed 33 points to the Lobos and NM is not only one of the worst teams in the MAC but one of the worst in the nation for FBS programs! The Warriors now are on the road again - for the 3rd time in 4 weeks! - while the Aztecs are back home for a 2nd straight week. The scheduling edge and situational edge here both are huge factors. Additionally, Hawaii has allowed an average of 32 points per game their past two games and allowed 31.9 points per game last season. San Diego State allowed only 12.7 points per game last season and, before getting upset by the Spartans and allowing 28 points last week, the Aztecs allowed 7 points or less in EACH of their first two games. Huge defensive edge to the home team in this one including allowing just 233 yards per game this season while the Warriors are allowing 433 yards per game! The Aztecs also are outgaining Hawaii on the offensive side (452 to 429) and, per our computer math model, San Diego State pulls away as this one goes on. This one has all the right ingredients for a blowout home win and we're laying the points with San Diego State |
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11-14-20 | Miami-FL v. Virginia Tech -121 | Top | 25-24 | Loss | -121 | 22 h 3 m | Show |
#156 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Virginia Tech Money Line -121 over Miami, FL, Saturday at 12:00 Noon ET - With money line available as low as -120 range on this one that makes sense here rather than laying the -2 for those of you who have access to the money line. We really feel this Va Tech team is undervalued overall with a 4-3 record. Apparently the oddsmakers agree is the Hokies are favored in this game vs a Miami team that is ranked 9th in the country. With that the majority of tickets (70% plus) are coming in on Miami which is to be expected. Let’s bet the underdog that is ranked in the top 10. Seems easy. On top of that VT was upset at home last week by Liberty. Makes this even easier to side with the Canes right? There is a reason the Hokies are favored in this game. Offensively they are very tough to stop as they are the 4th best rushing team in the nation averaging 278 YPG (6.4 YPC) and they are in the top 20 in offensive efficiency at over 7.0 YPP. Starting QB Hooker returned to full strength 4 games ago and he provides a huge threat running the ball (6.3 YPC) as well as throwing (67% completion rate for 870 yards). They should be very successful vs a Miami defense that is allowing 148 YPG on the ground. Looking further into that, if you throw out the game the Canes had vs Pitt who is a terrible running team (112th nationally out of 123), Miami is allowing 187 YPG on the ground in their other 5 ACC contests. Now they face the best rushing attack they’ve seen this season. The Canes defense has also been shredded for over 400 total yards in all 3 road games they’ve played this season. We’re not sold on Miami. They are a good team but overrated in our opinion. Two of their last three games were played vs teams that did not have the starting QB available (NC State & Pitt). Last week they trailed NC State, without their starting QB, for most of the game including by 10 points in the 4th quarter. They scored on a 54 yard pass with just over 2:00 minutes remaining to pick up the 44-41 win. A week earlier they struggled at home with a 2-4 Virginia team coming out on top 19-14. The one good team they played this season, Clemson, blasted them 42-17 and outgained the Canes by 340 yards! We’re not saying VT is Clemson, but this is definitely the 2nd best team Miami has faced this season. VT’s defensive numbers aren’t great, but they do get to the QB very well (top 15 nationally in sacks per game). Miami’s offensive line hasn’t been very good this year and despite their mobile QB King, they are still 88th in sacks allowed per game. Their RB’s haven’t been very good averaging just 4.5 YPC and QB King is nearly their leading rusher (2nd leading rusher 2 yards behind RB Harris). If you can focus on King and slow him down, this Miami offense is in trouble. They rely too heavily on one guy. This is the 2nd of back to back games for Miami and they’ve been dealing with some Covid issues and had a few starters out last week including on the offensive line. Head coach Manny Diaz said it’s been so bad in recent practices they’ve had grad assistant coaches lining up at DB and kickers taking on the role of WR’s on the scout team. We love looking at unranked home teams favored over ranked road teams, especially teams in the top 10. Other things must obviously fall into place as well and we feel they have for this one. This season unranked home teams favored over ranked road teams are 58-40 ATS. Last year there were 2 games all season in which a team with at least 3 losses was favored at home vs a team with 0 or 1 loss and the home team won both of those games. We expect Virginia Tech to come out and play with a purpose after blowing their home game last week vs Liberty (were they looking ahead to this one?). The Hokies get the home win and cover. |
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11-13-20 | Iowa -3.5 v. Minnesota | Top | 35-7 | Win | 100 | 25 h 17 m | Show |
#127 ASA TOP 10* PLAY ON Iowa -3.5 over Minnesota, Friday at 7:00 PM ET Iowa picked up their first win of the season last Saturday but they are much better than a 1-2 team. They’ve actually outgained all 3 of their opponents and they are +1.1 YPP differential on the season which is very solid. They’ve led all 3 games in the 4th quarter as well. The Hawks finally put it all together last week in a dominating 49-7 win over Michigan State. The defense, which has played very well this season, held MSU to just 10 first downs and only 59 yards rushing (Iowa had 226 yards on the ground). That defense is getting 2 key players back this week including starting LB Campbell who will now split time at the position helping their depth. Minnesota’s defense played much better last week but we’re not falling for it. The first 2 games they were terrible allowing 94 points on more than 9.0 YPP. So why did they look so much better last week? They played an Illinois team that has had a number of key players out with Covid and their QB position is in disarray as they were down to their 4th string QB Taylor who only completed 6 passes the entire game. This defense still stinks and even with last week’s performance they are allowing 8.2 YPP which is the worst in college football. They have the same 1-2 record as Iowa but the Gophers YPP differential is -2.0 which is a full 3 yard difference PER PLAY when compared to Iowa’s YPP differential numbers which we discussed earlier. The Gophers leaned heavy on their running game last week with 325 yards vs a terrible Illinois defense but they won’t get that luxury this week facing a Hawkeye defense that is allowing just 2.6 YPC this season. On the flip side, Iowa ran the ball very well last week and should continue vs a Minnesota defense that allows 7.3 YPC. This should keep the Iowa offense very balanced in this game which is bad news for an already terrible Gopher defense. On the other side this will be the best defense that Minnesota has faced this season. They’ve faced 2 terrible stop units (Maryland & Illinois) and a Michigan defense that has proven to be not so good thus far. The defensive difference in this game is enormous so we’re siding with Iowa to win and cover on the road. |
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11-12-20 | Colts +2 v. Titans | Top | 34-17 | Win | 100 | 51 h 30 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Indianapolis +2 over Tennessee, Thursday at 8:20 PM ET - We like this spot for the Colts coming off a loss with Tennessee coming off a win. We also like the fact that Indy outplayed the Ravens last week on the stat sheet while the Titans actually were outplayed by the Bears. Indy went from a 4-point dog at last week’s open vs Baltimore to a 1-point favorite near game time. They outgained the Ravens by a full +1.0 YPP in the game but had 2 turnovers which led directly to 14 of Baltimore’s 24 points. The biggest play of the game came late in the first quarter with Indianapolis already up 7-0 moving inside Baltimore’s 40 yard line looking to go up 2 scores. The Colts fumbled and it was returned 65 yards for the Ravens first TD to tie the game at 7-7. A potential 14-point turnaround on that play alone. Tennessee was favored by 6.5 at home vs Chicago and picked up a 24-17 win. The Bears outgained Tennessee by +1.0 YPP in the game despite the loss. The Tennessee defense, which ranks 25th in total defense allowed the below average Bears to roll up 375 yards. That’s a Chicago offense that had topped 280 yards only once in their previous 5 games. And the Titans weren’t playing particularly well entering the game having lost to the Steelers & Bengals in their previous 2 games. Tennessee could be sitting on a 3 game losing streak but got a little lucky last week. The Colts are 3-1 on the road this year and they own the #1 ranked total defense in the NFL. So we have a motivated team, getting points, with the much better defense. The Colts have also owned this AFC South series covering 13 of the last 17 meetings. Indy is the play on Thursday night. |
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11-11-20 | Central Michigan v. Northern Illinois +8 | Top | 40-10 | Loss | -109 | 26 h 43 m | Show |
#116 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Northern Illinois Huskies (+) over Central Michigan Chippewas, Wednesday at 8 PM ET - Central Michigan is off a tight win at home but they were helped by a pair of Ohio University turnovers. Also, the Bobcats simply aren't on the level with the Buffalo team that Northern Illinois had to face last week. In fact, heading into the season many had Buffalo pegged as the best team in the MAC this season. That said, even though the Huskies lost ugly on the scoreboard against the Bulls there are a couple of important factors to note. One is that it was a big-time revenge game for Buffalo. Another is that Northern Illinois was done in by turnovers in that game as too many fumbles were the difference in that one. In fact the Huskies actually outgained the Bulls and had 26 first downs compared to just 14 for Buffalo. Now Northern Illinois is in the 2nd of back to back home games and will certainly take better care of the ball in this one. Central Michigan is being over-valued as this line opened up at a 6 but has moved up past the -7 mark as of Tuesday evening. The Chippewas are getting too much respect here. Even if QB David Moore returned from his suspension for this one it would be his first live game action in a full year. If Central Michigan is again without Moore, most likely, it will be a redshirt freshman Daniel Richardson making his first ever road start at QB. This will be much tougher on Richardson in comparison with playing at home last week. The Huskies also have revenge on their minds here as they got blasted at Central Michigan last season. The last time the Chippewas visited Northern Illinois the Chips lost by a 24-16 margin. Per our computer math model this game has high probability that it will be a game decided by a single possession which means great value with the Huskies available in the +7.5 range for this one. This one has potential for a home dog upset and we're grabbing the points with Northern Illinois |
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11-08-20 | Saints v. Bucs UNDER 51 | Top | 38-3 | Win | 100 | 30 h 46 m | Show |
#473/474 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 51 Points – New Orleans @ Tampa Bay, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - These two met earlier this year and the total was set at 48.5 points. That final score was Bucs 43, Saints 34 so it went way over the total. Thus, this total is set nearly a full FG higher. The first final score between these 2 was quite misleading. Tampa had 310 total yards and New Orleans had only 271 and neither averaged 5.0 YPP. There were 9 scoring possessions in that game and 4 of them came on drives of less than 45 yards and TB scored on a pick 6. Last Sunday was the first top 10 defense the Saints have faced since their season opener vs TB and they scored just 23 points (in regulation) vs Chicago. The Bucs have also faced just 1 top 10 defense since playing the Saints and they scored just 19 points in that game. Both of these teams rank in the top 10 in efficiency defense (Football Outsiders) and total defense. The Tampa defense ranks #1 in the NFL in efficiency (Football Outsiders) and they’ve held 6 of their 8 opponents to 23 points or less. The Saints defense is ranked 8th in the NFL in efficiency and they’ve held 5 of their 8 opponents to 27 points or less. New Orleans has gone over the total in 7 straight games which has helped push this total higher than it should be in our opinion. It’s projected to be rainy and windy on Sunday evening in Tampa which will help limit scoring opportunities. 9 of the last 12 meeting between these 2 NFC South rival @ Tampa have gone under the total. With Tampa favored by -4.5 here the projected final is TB 28 and NO 23. We think both teams land under those numbers. We like the UNDER on Sunday Night. |
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11-07-20 | Oklahoma State -12 v. Kansas State | Top | 20-18 | Loss | -109 | 27 h 42 m | Show |
#375 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oklahoma State -12 over Kansas State, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET - One of the most misleading finals on the board last Saturday was OSU’s loss to Texas. In that 41-34 OT loss, OSU was +15 first downs, outgained the Longhorns 530 to 287 but had 4 turnovers (Texas had 0) which led to directly to half of UT’s points. In the first half alone, Texas scored 20 points and 13 of those came on 17 total yards of offense (a 15-yard TD drive, a 5-yard drive that ended in a FG, and a -3 yard drive that ended in a FG). Texas also scored on a 100-yard kickoff return in the 2nd half. The Horns came into the game averaging 490 YPG on offense so the OSU defense, which is really good this year, held them 200 yards below their average. The Cowboys rank 14th nationally in total defense and they’ve held every opponent this year below their season average in YPG. The only defense in the Big 12 that is ranked ahead of them (slightly) is West Virginia and the Mountaineers held Kansas State to just 10 points and 225 total yards in their 37-10 win last Saturday. KSU will have all sorts of problems with this Oklahoma State defense as well. The Cats lost starting QB Thompson for the season a few weeks ago. His replacement Will Howard is a freshman with very little experience. Howard has now started 3 games and if you subtract KSU’s game vs Kansas who stinks, they have scored a grand total of 3 offensive TD’s with him under center. The Wildcats 4-2 record doesn’t look bad but the fact is they are getting outgained by almost 100 YPG and they’ve been outgained by every team they’ve faced this year with the exception of Kansas. That includes Arkansas State who upset KSU 35-31. The Cats do have a signature win over Oklahoma this year which might be keeping them overvalued but they were beaten badly in the stat sheet in that game as well with the exception of turnovers (Oklahoma had 4 / KSU had 0). They also trailed by 21 in that game but had senior QB Thompson in the line up to help with the comeback. The Cowboys offense has averaged 35 PPG over their last 3 games and they received a big boost when starting QB Sanders returned two weeks ago vs Iowa State. He has thrown for over 600 yards and 5 TD’s in his 2 games since returning. He and the OSU offense should have a field day vs a Kansas State defense that is allowing 437 YPG ranking them 78th in total defense out of 113. Last week they allowed WVU to roll up almost 500 yards and tally 37 points. We don’t think Kansas State will be able to keep up here. The Cowboys have rebounded well off a loss with a 7-1 ATS record off their last 8 defeats and they want to rebound from last week’s disappointing loss as they head into a bye week. Lay it as this has the makings of an easy win for Oklahoma State. |
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11-06-20 | San Jose State v. San Diego State OVER 47.5 | Top | 28-17 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
#311/312 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 47.5 Points – San Jose State @ San Diego State, Friday at 9:00 PM ET - Nick Starkel is the quarterback at San Jose State. Before "arriving" (literally!) with the Spartans, he started his career in the SEC - first with Texas A & M and then with Arkansas. Starkel has the background to play very well in the Mountain West and he is already doing it. Of course he goes from facing some easier competition in the first two games this season to facing a tough San Diego State defense but, the fact is, this is a solid Spartans offense that can put up plenty of points. Last season they had one of the top passing attacks in football with 338 yards per game and this is a team that averaged 30 points per game! The problem for San Jose State is they generally can't stop anyone. Don't be fooled by their first two games this season as they faced struggling offenses. San Diego State is averaging 347 rushing yards per game this season and has put up at least 34 points in each of their first two games. The Aztecs will run all over a Spartands rush defense that was one of the worst in the nation against the run last season as they allowed 232.1 yards per game on the ground. San Diego State has looked very strong on offense and has already scored more points in each of their first two games this season than they did in any of their regular season games last season! That helps key this over as does the fact that San Jose State looks even better than last year's offense. That being said, this match-up will see more points than last year's which ended up a 27-17 final. Per our computer math modeling, more scoring occurs compared to what many are expecting in this one and that means an OVER here! |
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11-05-20 | Packers v. 49ers OVER 49.5 | Top | 34-17 | Win | 100 | 28 h 17 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Over 49.5 Points – Green Bay @ San Francisco, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - Green Bay will be without their top 3 RB’s for this game so we expect Aaron Rodgers to throw the ball a lot in this one. The Packers rank 3rd in the NFL in scoring and they’ve been held under 30 just twice all season. Last week vs Minnesota they only put up 22 points, however they put up 400 yards in that game but simply blew a number of chances. Their seasonal yards per point average is 12.6 which ranks them 6th in the NFL. If that is used to figure out what GB would normally score when gaining 400 yards it comes to 31 points. SF’s defense has solid overall numbers but they’ve faced 5 opponents ranked 24th or lower in scoring. The 3 solid offenses they’ve faced Miami, Seattle, & Arizona (all ranked in the top 11 in scoring) the SF defense allowed an average of 29 PPG. Green Bay will score here. San Francisco is without QB Garoppolo but we don’t feel back up Nick Mullens is a big downgrade. He came in last week and threw for 273 yards and led the Niners on TD drives on their final 3 offensive possessions. He’s already started 2 games this year and is completing over 70% of his passes so we think they’ll be fine. The San Fran running game, top 10 in both YPG & YPC, will keep them balanced and should have a nice day vs a GB defense that was ripped for 173 yards on the ground last week vs Minnesota. With this total set at 49.5, it’s actually a few points lower than the average scoring numbers in the NFL this year which is 51 PPG. The weather looks perfect on Thursday night and we like the OVER here. |
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11-04-20 | Ball State v. Miami-OH -123 | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 23 h 57 m | Show |
#286 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Miami-OH Redhawks (-) over Ball State Cardinals, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - Our projections heading into this MAC season have the Redhawks finishing near the top of the East Division right behind Buffalo while the Cardinals are likely to finish in the bottom half of the West Division. Though Ball State did go 4-4 in the MAC last season they just don't have the defense to improve on that this season plus lost some key talent at WR and along the offensive line heading into this season. Last season Ball State finished up on a 1-4 run and the only win was in their season finale over the Redhawks. Now the rematch this season is at Miami-OH and our computer math model is projecting a big revenging win for the home team in this one. The Cardinals are particularly thin at defensive line entering this season and the Redhawks return 4 offensive linemen as they got Doyle and Godlevske back after those two had initially opted out. That is key as that means returning QB Gabbert is part of a strong group of returning starters on offense including a very solid offensive line including his left tackle and center returning after they had considered opting out. The Redhawks went 6-2 in the MAC last season and appear poised for another strong season and though the defense is a bit of a concern for Miami-OH, the Cardinals defense is an even bigger concern and the Redhawks very experienced offensive group plus home field plus revenge all factor into a solid win here. Look for the host to improve to 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings between these teams. Miami-OH has some guys out at TE and RB for this one but they have ample talent there including returning most of their running back rotation from last season. The Redhawks roll in this one. This one has the makings of a home blowout and we're laying the small number with Miami-OH |
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11-02-20 | Bucs v. Giants +13 | Top | 25-23 | Win | 100 | 31 h 29 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON NY Giants +13 over Tampa Bay, Monday at 8:20 PM ET - We feel the Giants are in a great situational spot here with 10 days to rest & prepare off their Thursday night game. Tampa made the long trip to Las Vegas last Sunday and they are on the road again this week. Great value as well on the home team here as this spread opened Bucs -8.5 or -9, which is where we have it power rated, and it’s been pushed all the way to -13 as Tampa is now officially a public team. This number is more than double Tampa’s highest road number this year – they were favored by 6 @ Denver, at team we have rated very closely to the Giants. While NY has a poor overall record, they’ve been competitive for the most part. All but 1 of their games has been decided by 10 points or less with 4 of those games being decided by 4 points or less. The Giants have been able to hang in most of their games due to a solid yet underrated defense. They rank in the top 13 in the NFL in both YPG allowed and YPP allowed. They’ve given up 26 points or less in 5 of their games and when your getting nearly 2 TD’s that significant. Offensively they’ve started to come around after not topping 16 in any of their first 4 games the Giants have put up 34, 20, and 21 points their last 3. Tampa has a HUGE game with AFC South rival New Orleans next Sunday and we expect the Giants to give them a good run in this one. Take the points. |
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11-01-20 | Saints v. Bears +4.5 | Top | 26-23 | Win | 100 | 26 h 56 m | Show |
#268 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Chicago +4.5 over New Orleans, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - We’re not huge proponents of Chicago this year as their offense has struggled, but this line in flat out wrong in our opinion. The Bears are getting almost a TD (5 points as of this writing) vs a team we feel is drastically overvalued. For comparison’s sake, the Saints were favored by 3 @ Detroit and by 4 @ Las Vegas in their 2 road games this year. They lost by 10 @ Vegas and had to hold on late to beat the Lions 35-29. Now they are laying more than that to a Bears team that is 5-2? The Saints simply aren’t that great this year. They have 4 wins and 3 of those have come by 6 points or less. Last week they held on at home to beat the Panthers 27-24 but Carolina outgained them on a YPP basis. New Orleans ran 24 more offensive plays in that game and were only able to win by 3 game home vs Carolina. The same Panther team the Bears beat on the road by 7 a week earlier. Prior to their Carolina win, the Saints had to come from 17 points down at home to nip the Chargers in OT. Bears might be without WR Robinson in this game (questionable) however New Orleans will be without their top 3 WR’s here as Thomas, Sanders, and Callaway have all been ruled out. The Saints haven’t been on the road since October 4th and they have played a single game outdoors this season. New Orleans is an indoor, fast track team. On Sunday they are going to get 25 MPH winds and temps in the 30’s (windchill in the 20’s) at Soldier Field facing one of the top defenses in the NFL. We get it, Chicago looked bad on Monday night and their offense has struggled. However, this is simply too much value on the home team to pass up in this spot. Chicago bounces back after a poor performance, their offense looks better, and their defense continues their stellar play on Sunday. This one goes to the wire and we grab the points with Chicago. |
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11-01-20 | Chargers v. Broncos OVER 44 | Top | 30-31 | Win | 100 | 25 h 9 m | Show |
#276/276 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Over 44 Points – LA Chargers @ Denver, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - Denver only scored 16 points last week at home vs KC but they put up 411 total yards. Their offense actually pushed into KC territory on 7 of their offensive possessions. They were only able to come up with 1 TD in the game but had multiple chances to put more than 16 points on the board. Same situation a week earlier @ New England. The Broncos settled for SIX field goals in that game in an 18-12 win. Again they had lots of chances to put numbers on the board in that game as well. The point is, this offense is playing much better than what their final scores might indicate. We think the Denver offense breaks out this week vs a Chargers defense that has allowed 38, 30, and 29 points their last 3 games. Most concerning was last week as they allowed 29 points to a Jacksonville team that had scored 30 points total their previous 2 games vs Houston & Detroit, two below average defenses. The Charger offense has been on a tear under rookie QB Herbert. They have scored 31, 27, and 39 points their last 3 games including the first two scores vs Tampa & New Orleans who both rank in the top 7 in the NFL in total defense. Herbert has thrown for over 250 yards in every start this season and the Chargers are #1 in the NFL in 3rd down conversion rate. The Broncos defense is highly ranked but against the good offenses they’ve faced the scoring has been high. KC scored 43 last week in a snowstorm, Pittsburgh scored 26, and the Bucs put up 28. Even the Jets, the lowest scoring team in the NFL, had 28 points vs the Broncos so we have no doubt the Chargers will score here. Last week we had a snow storm in Denver, this Sunday calls for temps in the mid 60’s and light winds. Perfect weather. This total is currently sitting at 44.5 which is a low total for today’s NFL which averages right around 51 PPG. Take the OVER in Denver on Sunday. |
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10-31-20 | Ohio State v. Penn State UNDER 64.5 | Top | 38-25 | Win | 100 | 30 h 6 m | Show |
#135/136 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 64.5 Points – Ohio State @ Penn State, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - PSU gave up 36 points to Indiana last week in a 1-point OT loss. It may look like the defense struggled simply looking at the score but that was not the case. In fact, the Nittany Lions limited Indiana to just 211 total yards on 3.4 YPP. On the ground the Hoosiers only averaged 1.6 YPC. Prior to IU’s final 75 yard TD drive in the final minute which tied the game, the Hoosiers had a total of 136 yards of offense. Turnovers killed Penn State in that loss leading to short fields and points for Indiana. OSU’s defense looked very solid in game 1 limiting a Nebraska offense that returned 10 starters to just 17 points. Much of the Huskers offense came from their QB’s running the ball. If you subtract the rush yards from Martinez and McCaffrey the two NU QB’s, the offense barely had 200 yards. Buckeye QB Fields played a great game but other than that, the offense wasn’t super. While Fields was their leading rusher, the OSU RB’s only rushed for 89 yards on 23 carries (3.8 YPC). That could be a problem facing a PSU rush defense that led the Big 10 last year allowing just 95 YPG and looks very good again this year. Last year these two played to 28-17 OSU win totaling just 45 points. The 2 defenses combined to hold the offenses to just 4.3 YPP in that game. Going back further, 4 of the last 5 in this series have stayed UNDER the total and this is just the 2nd time in the last 10 meetings the total has been set in the 60’s. Last year’s total was 58 which is more on par with where this one should be in our opinion. There have been 28 games played in this Big 10 series and only THREE have reached 60 or more points. With this total set at 64 at least one or possibly both teams need to get into the 30’s. PSU has allowed 30 or more in just 3 of their last 26 games. OSU hasn’t allowed 30 in 16 straight games. UNDER in the play here. |
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10-31-20 | Ole Miss -17.5 v. Vanderbilt | Top | 54-21 | Win | 100 | 26 h 60 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Ole Miss Rebels (-) over Vanderbilt, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET: Game #185 |
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10-27-20 | Rays +126 v. Dodgers | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 16 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Tampa Bay Rays Money Line (+) vs Los Angeles Dodgers, Tuesday at 8:08 PM ET |
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10-26-20 | Bears v. Rams -6 | Top | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 6 h 13 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* LA Rams -6 over the Chicago Bears, Monday 8:25 PM ET - Let’s compare how these two teams currently sit in their scheduling situation. The 5-1 Bears are off a misleading win in Carolina, while the 4-2 Rams are off a Divisional loss to the 49ers. Chicago didn’t play great in Carolina with QB Nick Foles throwing for under 200 yards and the offense gaining less than 260 on the day. The Bears were outgained in the game 4.9 yards per play to 4.1YPPL but Carolina had 3 turnovers. Chicago’s offense has been brutal this year ranking 28th in yards per play offense and 27th in scoring. Against the good defenses they’ve faced (Indy, TBay and Carolina) they have averaged less than 270-total yards of offense. The Bears will face a great Rams defense tonight that is 4th in yards per game allowed and 5th in scoring D allowing just 19PPG. Los Angeles lost in San Francisco last week which doesn’t look as bad as it was now that the 49ers are getting healthy and destroyed New England on the road yesterday. The Rams are 11-4 SU their last fifteen when coming off a loss and they’ve won those games by an average of 7.6PPG which clearly gets us a cover here. Yes, these defenses are near even but the Rams have the 10th best offense in yards gained per game and have won 39 of their last 58 at home since 2017. Their average margin of victory in those games is +6PPG. Bears QB Nick Foles is best when he’s comfortable in the pocket and not pressured but that won’t be the case tonight against this Rams defense led by DE Aaron Donald. As long as this line is under a TD we will side with the Rams. |
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10-25-20 | Seahawks -3 v. Cardinals | Top | 34-37 | Loss | -120 | 27 h 47 m | Show |
#467 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Seattle -3 over Arizona, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - Arizona looks like they are rolling going 2-1 on their 3 game road trip. Not so fast. Their wins on that road trip were the winless Jets and struggling Cowboys (without Prescott at QB). Minus their win over San Francisco in the season opener where they were outgained 6.0 to 5.2 YPP, Arizona’s win shave come against teams with a combined record of 3-15 with Washington being their other win besides the two mentioned above. While the Cards on a short week after winning @ Dallas on Monday, they get to face a rested 5-0 (4-1 ATS) Seattle team coming off a bye week. This will be Seattle’s 3rd road game of the season and their first 2 were 8 & 27 point wins. That puts Seattle at 2-0 ATS on the road this year and 13-3-2 ATS their last 18 games away from home. QB Russell Wilson is 72-54-7 ATS in his career in the regular season. Road team 9-1-1 ATS last 11 meetings. Seattle has owned the Cards on the road where they are 6-0-1 SU (5-1-1 ATS) their last 7 trips here including a 27-10 here last season. The Seahawks average margin of victory over that 7 game span was +14 points. We’ll take the better team in the better situation here. Lay it with Seattle. |
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10-25-20 | Dodgers v. Rays +1.5 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -113 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Run Line: Tampa Bay Rays (+1.5 runs) over Los Angeles Dodgers, Sunday at 8:08 PM ET |
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10-24-20 | Notre Dame v. Pittsburgh +10 | Top | 45-3 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 53 m | Show |
#318 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Pittsburgh +10 over Notre Dame, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - In our opinion, Notre Dame is vastly overvalued at this point of the season due to their perfect 4-0 record. However, they haven’t beaten a single team that currently has a winning record and the combined record of the 4 teams they’ve played is 5-16. Last week they played host to Louisville, who in our power ratings is the best team the Irish have faced, and ND escaped with a 12-7 win. The Irish were held to just 4.9 YPP vs a Louisville team that ranks 32nd nationally in total defense (out of 77). The Notre Dame offense struggled with the Cards last week and now face, by far, the best defense they’ve seen this year as Pitt ranks 7th nationally in total defense. On top of that, ND relies heavily on their running game averaging 45 carries per game (12th most in the country) and Pitt’s defense ranks #1 in the nation in rush defense allowing only 61 YPG. The Panthers are much better than their 3-3 record. They’ve lost 3 straight games by a combined 14 points. Last week they played @ Miami and lost 31-19 but the yardage was close (Pitt outgained by 30 yards) and the defense played very well holding a potent Cane offense to just 331 total yards. Miami did score 31 points but 3 of their TD drives started on Pittsburgh’s half of the field due to turnovers and the Panthers getting shut out on downs. They might be without starting QB Pickett again this week (although he has not been ruled out) but his backup Yellen got his feet wet last week throwing for 277 yards vs Miami. We have Pitt rated about dead even with Louisville so this will be the best team the Irish have played (along with the Cards) AND their first road game of the season. These two programs have faced off 12 times since 2002 with the margin of victory being 8 or less in 10 of those games. Pitt will give Notre Dame all they can handle here and we grab the generous points siding with the home dog. |
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10-23-20 | Dodgers v. Rays +1.5 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -125 | 8 h 34 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Run Line: Tampa Bay Rays (+1.5 runs) over Los Angeles Dodgers, Friday at 8:08 PM ET |
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10-22-20 | Giants v. Eagles -4.5 | Top | 21-22 | Loss | -104 | 27 h 1 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Philadelphia -4.5 over NY Giants, Thursday at 8:20 PM ET - Watching the Eagles their last 2 games, it looks to us like Philly is starting to round into form despite their 1-4-1 record. The last 2 Sundays they’ve stood toe to toe with 2 of the best teams in the NFL, Pittsburgh & Baltimore. They outgained the Steelers on a yards per play basis and trailed by just 2 points with under 3:00 minutes remaining (lost 38-29). Last week they came from behind and had a chance to tie Baltimore with under 2:00 minutes remaining but the Eagles 2-point conversion was not successful and they lost 30-28. They also outgained the Ravens on a YPP basis in that game. This offense has turned the corner scoring 28 & 29 points vs 2 of the top defenses in the NFL the last 2 weeks. The defense already ranks in the top 10 in YPP allowed and we have a feeling this team is close to turning the corner. The Giants won last week vs Washington to pick up their first win of the season, but they didn’t look great doing it. Washington actually had nearly 100 more total yards, more first downs, and a time of possession edge in the game. NY’s offense has been flat out bad all season, with the exception of their game @ Dallas and we all know how bad the Cowboy defense is right now. If you throw that game out the window, the Giants have scored a grand total of 7 TD’s in their other 5 games. That’s it. The defense is very solid but when you have an offense that only scores 13 PPG (again, minus the Cowboy game) that puts a lot of pressure on the defense. With the way Philly has put points on the board the last few weeks, we think they’ll have success here. We can’t say the same for the NYG offense. Philly was laying almost double digits here vs New York last year (-9.5) and now were getting them at just -4.5. Lay it was we expect the Eagles to win by at least a TD. |
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10-21-20 | Rays +124 v. Dodgers | Top | 6-4 | Win | 124 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
NOTE: We are comfortable with this play regardless of the starting pitchers and recommend making this wager as action on the starting pitchers.ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Tampa Bay Rays Money Line (+) vs Los Angeles Dodgers, Wednesday at 8:08 PM ET |
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10-20-20 | Rays +1.5 v. Dodgers | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -125 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Run Line: Tampa Bay Rays (+1.5 runs) over Los Angeles Dodgers, Tuesday at 8:09 PM ET |
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10-19-20 | Cardinals v. Cowboys +1.5 | Top | 38-10 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 34 m | Show |
#276 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Dallas +1.5 over Arizona, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - This is an overreaction to the Dak Prescott injury along with the Cowboy struggles to date. The Cardinals should not be favored in this match up. First of all, it Arizona’s 3rd straight road game so a tough spot for them. The were smoked at Carolina two weeks ago and then beat the terrible Jets in New York last week. They’ve also lost to the Lions this year which gave Detroit their only win of the season. This is not a team that should be laying points on the road unless they are playing the Jets. Dallas lost Prescott in the 2nd half last week and veteran Andy Dalton, possibly the best back up on the league, came in and led the Cowboys to 13 points in his 5 possessions as they rallied to top the Giants. Dalton is simply not a huge drop off from Prescott. They guy has almost 32,000 passing yards and over 200 TD’s in his career. He is not a full 4 points drop off from Dak as this line was Dallas -3 leading into last week and now they are underdogs. We anticipate the Cowboys rally behind Dalton and play well in their first full game without Dak at QB. Two of Arizona’s wins came over Washington and the Jets who are 1-9 combined. Their other win was in the season opener over the Niners in a game that looked like a great win but in hindsight with San Fran’s struggles it wasn’t look all that impressive. The Boys have just a 2-3 record but their 3 losses have come at the hands of Seattle, LA Rams, and Cleveland who have a combined 13-2 record. Cowboys may get some key players back defensively including their starting MLB Vander Esch. Offensively they rank #1 in the NFL in YPG and 3rd in YPP and we expect them to continue to roll with Dalton at QB. We’ll take advantage of this bad line and take Dallas at home. |
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10-18-20 | Browns v. Steelers OVER 51 | Top | 7-38 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 57 m | Show |
#261/262 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Over 51 Points – Cleveland @ Pittsburgh, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - Pittsburgh’s overall defensive numbers this year are very good, however they’ve played a VERY easy schedule of offenses thus far. In 3 of their 4 games they’ve faced the Giants, Eagles, and Broncos who currently rank 29th, 28th, and 27th in offensive efficiency (YPP offense). Two of those three actually scored more points vs the Steelers than their season average and the other, the Giants, hit their average PPG right on the head. Last week Pittsburgh faced an Eagle offense that was averaging an NFL worst 4.5 yards per play entering the game. Philly eclipsed that average by nearly a yard and a half last week putting up 5.9 YPP vs Pittsburgh. The Eagles came into the game averaging 21 PPG and put up 29 last Sunday. Now they face a Cleveland offense that is rolling scoring 30+ points in 4 straight games. If you throw out their clunker in week 1 @ Baltimore, the Browns are averaging 37.5 PPG over their last 4. That includes a 32 point output last week vs the Colts who entered the game as the #1 overall defense in the NFL. The problem with Cleveland isn’t their offense, it’s their defense. They’ve allowed 30 or more in 3 of their 5 games and haven’t allowed less than 20 in any game this season. Pittsburgh’s offense scored 38 points last week on a solid Philly defense (#6 in YPP defense) and they’ve scored at least 26 in every game this year. The weather looks great here with light winds and no precipitation and we expect an AFC North shootout. Take the OVER. |
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10-17-20 | North Carolina v. Florida State OVER 64 | Top | 28-31 | Loss | -109 | 26 h 22 m | Show |
#125/126 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER 64 Points – North Carolina @ Florida State, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - First off we are well aware of the injury situation for Florida State here. QB Jordan Travis is dealing with a hand injury. He has participated in practice this week and was listed as the starter on the depth chart and we do expect him to play here. However, even if he does not start then it will be former starter James Blackman back in the starting role. At home and with a chance to redeem himself from a rough beginning to the season (which cost him his starting job), Blackman would be likely to respond big here given the opportunity. The Seminoles also lost WR Tamorrion Terry to a season-ending injury in the Notre Dame game. Though he was off to a great start for the Noles this season, Terry wasn't even listed as a starter early this season and had worked his way into that role. Would FSU love to have Terry? Of course! But even without him there is plenty of WR talent on this Florida State team and they will be testing out a North Carolina defense that just got scorched for 495 yards by Virginia Tech last week! The Tar Heels first two games this season were against Syracuse and Boston College and that helped mask some issues on the defensive side of the ball. The Tar Heels defense absolutely has issues and that is what the Hokies exposed last week. However, the other side of the ball is where UNC really has no issues. That is why they won last week's game despite allowing 45 points as North Carolina exploded for 56 points on 656 yards of offense. The Heels have a fantastic backfield as Carter and Williams ran for 214 and 169 yards, respectively, plus each had a pair of rushing TDs in the win over Virginia Tech. Also, QB Howell was 18 of 23 for 257 yards and 3 TDs and now takes on a Noles defense that is allowing nearly 70% completion percentage on the season. The Seminoles defense having major issues with 39.3 points per game allowed the last 3 games and the Tar Heels are averaging 7.56 yards per play on offense to rank among the most efficient offenses in the nation. The Noles, on the other hand, allowing 6.49 yards per play on defense to rank among the least efficient defenses in the nation. On offense however Florida State plays at a fast pace (76.5 offensive plays per game) and did put up 26 points on a Fighting Irish defense that had allowed a total of only 13 points in its first two games combined! You can see exactly why we're expecting both teams to enjoy plenty of success lighting up the scoreboard in this one as our computer math model is forecasting a shootout. Ideal weather conditions expected for this one as well. Both teams getting well into the 30’s mean an OVER here and Tar Heels (double digit favorite here) have a good shot to get into the 40's or 50's! |
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10-16-20 | Dodgers v. Braves OVER 9.5 | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
NOTE: We are comfortable with this play regardless of the starting pitchers announced.ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Atlanta Braves versus Los Angeles Dodgers, Friday at 9:08 PM ET |
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10-14-20 | Coastal Carolina v. UL-Lafayette -7 | Top | 30-27 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON UL-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (-) over Coastal Carolina Chanticleers, Wednesday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #170 |
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10-14-20 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Braves | Top | 15-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 22 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Run Line: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5 runs) over Atlanta Braves, Wednesday at 6:05 PM ET |
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10-13-20 | Rays -105 v. Astros | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 15 h 33 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Tampa Bay Rays Money Line (-) vs Houston Astros, Tuesday at 8:40 PM ET |
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10-12-20 | Chargers +8 v. Saints | Top | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 46 h 14 m | Show |
#477 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON LA Chargers +8 over New Orleans, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - We’re still not sold on this Saints team being one of the best in the NFL. Especially with their current injury concerns at WR, DB, and on the offensive line. Their wins have come against Tampa, where they were outgained but benefitted from 3 Buc turnovers including a pick 6, and Detroit. Their game last week @ Detroit they fell down 14-0, came back to take a lead and barely held on 35-29. Offensively the Saints were only able to put up 5.7 YPP last week vs a Detroit defense that has allowed 6.2 YPP this season. We think, because they have a 1-3 record, the Chargers are a bit undervalued right now. They’ve lost 3 straight games that have gone to the wire. They played KC as tough as anyone over the last year as they led the entire game but lost in OT. Last week they led Tampa on the road 24-7 but Brady pulled his comeback magic and rallied the Bucs for a win. Starting QB Herbert has been very impressive to date with a completion rate of 72% while averaging over 300 YPG passing. The Bolts have held leads in the 4th quarter in 3 of their 4 games this year and their defense has been solid holding 3 of their 4 opponents to 23 points or less including limiting KC to 20 points in regulation. This is a tough team to pull away from and we expect a tight game. The Chargers are a money making 12-4-3 ATS their last 19 non-division road games under head coach Anthony Lynn. The Saints have covered just 4 of their last 14 games as a home favorite. Undervalued vs Overvalued here. Take the points. |
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10-12-20 | Astros v. Rays -124 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 16 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Tampa Bay Rays Money Line (-) vs Houston Astros, Monday at 4:07 PM ET |
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10-11-20 | Astros v. Rays -132 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Tampa Bay Rays Money Line (-) vs Houston Astros, Sunday at 7:37 PM ET |
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10-11-20 | Dolphins v. 49ers OVER 51 | Top | 43-17 | Win | 100 | 18 h 22 m | Show |
#469/470 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Over 51 Points – Miami @ San Francisco, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - San Francisco is getting Garoppolo back at QB here which will help this offense immensely. He’s a big upgrade over Mullens & Beathard. Top TE Kittle came back last week and their starting RB Mostert looks like he may be back as well for this one. San Fran’s offense has actually been playing well with some of their top playmakers on the shelf. Last week they scored just 20 points vs Philly but had over 400 yards of offense on 6.0 YPP. However they committed 3 turnovers including an interception at the Eagle 14 yard line as they were heading in to potentially score. Prior to last week the Niners scored 31 vs the Jets and 36 vs a very good NY Giants defense that ranks in the top 10 in a number of key defensive categories. We see San Francisco moving the ball at will this week vs a Miami defense that ranks last in the NFL allowing 6.6 YPP. The Fins offense has actually come around nicely after their season opener @ New England where they scored only 11 points. Since that game they have scored 28, 31, and 23 points. Last week’s 23 they put up on Seattle was very deceiving as Miami settled for FIVE field goals in that game despite rolling up over 400 yards on 6.1 YPP. We hope that head coach Brian Flores learns from that mistake as in today’s game, it’s very hard to win settling for that many FG’s. High scoring games are now the norm (league average is 51.5 PPG) and they’ll need to score with San Fran to keep up here. We think they will. The Niner defense is a bit overrated right now as they’ve faced the Jets, Giants, and Eagles in their last 3 games. Those 3 offense rank 30th, 31st, and 32nd this year in yards per play! With the 49ers favored by 8 and the total set around 50, the final score expected is 29-21. We like both team to eclipse their expected totals in this game. The weather looks great in SF for the game and we like the OVER here. |
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10-10-20 | Arkansas v. Auburn -13.5 | Top | 28-30 | Loss | -117 | 22 h 14 m | Show |
#330 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Auburn -13.5 over Arkansas, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET Well Arkansas finally did it. They broke their 20 game SEC losing streak last week by upsetting Mississippi State 21-14 as a 16.5 point underdog. A couple of quick points about that game. First of all, they caught MSU off a monumental upset @ LSU so no doubt the Bulldogs weren’t completely focused on the Razorbacks who last won an SEC game in 2017 and that win was by just 1 point! Secondly, Arkansas was very fortunate to win last week as they were dominated in the stat sheet. The Bulldogs were +7 first downs and outgained the Razors 400 to 275. The problem for MSU was their FOUR turnovers. The first one set the tone for the upset as Arky returned a pick 6 just a few minutes into the game to take a 7-0 lead. Not only did the Dogs cough it up 4 times, they were also shut out on downs twice deep inside Arkansas territory at the 13 & 7 yard line. The Dogs also lost their top RB Hill (1350 yards last year) in the first quarter to an injury. Needless to say, a lot of things had to fall into place for Arky to pick up their first win in conference play in nearly 3 years and that’s exactly what happened. Now they are on the road again this week facing an extra motivated Auburn team. That’s because after beating a very solid Kentucky team here in week 1 by a final of 29-13, they were dominated @ Georgia last week. They went into the game as a 7.5 point dog and felt they could pull the upset. Didn’t happen as the Dawgs pushed them around which we look at as a wake up call for the Tigers. After the game Auburn head coach Malzahn stated, “We really got whipped in all 3 phases. We got outcoached.” We’re pretty sure this Auburn team will be more than ready this week. You can also count on them trying to put as many points on the board as possible. We don’t think there will be any backing off with a lead here coming off a loss and the fact that Auburn’s new OC Morris was the head coach at Arkansas last year and got canned. He’ll be motivated as well. This situation looks very similar to the last few seasons when Auburn was coming off a tough loss and pasted Arkansas the following week. Last year the Tigers lost at Florida and then beat the Razorbacks 51-10 just one week later. In 2018, they were coming off a tight 1-point loss vs LSU and proceeded to pound Arkansas 34-3 the following Saturday. The Razors are happy to be 1-1 but their offense will have big problems here vs a top notch Auburn defense. Arkansas currently averages just 277 YPG which ranks 70th out of 74 current teams playing & 15.5 PPG which includes last week’s pick 6. If you take that away, the offense has scored just 24 points in 2 games this year. We love the value here as well. We have this game power rated at Auburn -17.5. We could argue it should be even higher. These teams both played UGA and Arkansas was +27.5 at home while Auburn was +7.5 on the road. Just based on that alone, with no home field factored in whatsoever, it tells us Auburn should be a 20 point favorite on a neutral field. The weather calls for some rain, however the winds shouldn’t be bad at 10-12 MPH. We like Auburn to roll up a big home win on Saturday and getting this under 2 TD’s is a steal. |
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10-09-20 | Heat v. Lakers UNDER 216.5 | Top | 111-108 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: UNDER 216.5 Miami Heat vs LA Lakers, Friday 9 PM ET We are betting this game is similar to the last two games in this series which have slowed down dramatically with shooting percentages dropping. In the last game these two teams combined for 154 total field goal attempts and shot a combined 43% which resulted in 198 total points. In the previous game the end result was 219 total points but the 159 FG attempts were lower than Games 1 & 2 which had 173 and 168. Let’s not forget these two teams ranked 3rd and 11th in defensive efficiency rating in the regular season and both have similar numbers in the post season. Both teams are also playing slower than their regular season pace of play. With this being a potential elimination game, I expect a very deliberate game with high intensity on the defensive end of the floor. With the added pressure shots won’t fall as easily in this game. Bet Under |
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10-08-20 | Bucs v. Bears UNDER 45 | Top | 19-20 | Win | 100 | 9 h 1 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Under 45 Points, Tampa Bay @ Chicago, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - This is a low total by today’s standards but we still like the UNDER in this game. This number opened 45 and has dropped to 44.5 which is also telling as most of the totals this year are moving up from the opener and now down. We have 2 of the top defenses in the NFL here with Tampa ranking 2nd in Football Outsiders defensively with Chicago coming in at 7th. On a yards per play basis, these 2 defense also both rank in the top 7 in the NFL. The Bears offense was putrid last week vs Indy scoring just 11 points and they had only 3 points under 2:00 minutes remaining in the game. They tallied only 269 total yards and 90 of those came on their final drive while the Colts were in prevent defense mode. It wasn’t a complete surprise as Indy’s defense ranks #1 in Football Outsiders defensive DVOA but let’s not forget Tampa ranks 2nd so not a huge difference. Chicago has scored 85 points on the season and nearly half of those points (42) came in the 4th quarter of their games vs the Lions & Falcons when they had to make big comebacks vs teams with terrible defenses. Tampa is coming off a big offensive output last week as they had to come from 24-7 down at home vs Chargers to get the 38-31 win. Their defense played poorly allowing 6.5 YPP which is well above their average of 5.1 YPP allowed. Expect a much better effort tonight. Overall offensively TB is a middle of the pack team averaging 5.7 YPP which ranks them 18th in that category. We don’t foresee Brady having a huge night (5 TD passes last week) vs a Chicago defense that ranks 6th in the NFL in yards per pass attempt allowed. The Bucs offense is also banged up with WR Godwin, RB Fournette, RB McCoy, and TE Howard all out tonight. Their top WR Evans is also dealing with an ankle injury. Take the UNDER in this one. |
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10-08-20 | Rays +126 v. Yankees | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Tampa Bay Rays Money Line (+) vs New York Yankees, Thursday at 7:10 PM ET |
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10-07-20 | A's v. Astros OVER 9 | Top | 9-7 | Win | 105 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Houston Astros versus Oakland A's, Wednesday at 3:35 PM ET |
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10-06-20 | Lakers v. Heat +7.5 | Top | 102-96 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: Miami Heat +7.5 over LA Lakers, 9PM ET The Heat got back into this series with a win in Game 3 and we feel that confidence carries over to another extremely competitive game here. The Heat got a monster game out of Jimmy Butler who scored 40-points, grabbed 11 rebounds, and handed out 13 assists. Another key factor to the wins was the balanced scoring by the entire Heat team, which has been a staple in this postseason. Miami had five players score in double-digits including Kelly Olynyk (17) who has given them another viable scoring option. If we use the full season as a baseline, we know the Lakers were a below average 3-point shooting team (ranked 21st) at 35%. In Game 3 we saw the Lakers hit just 33% of their 3-point attempts and shoot a more average overall 43% from the field. That was a better indicator of what they should shoot, and it resulted in a much closer game with the Heat making more plays down the stretch. The Lakers are not a great team as a favorite in this price range at 6-4 ATS nor is their 14-8 SU record off a loss overwhelming. In fact, the Lakers average win margin off a loss this season is just +2.6PPG which isn’t enough to get a cover in this game. The Heat may get some help and add to their depth with Bam Adebayo or Dragic back for this game. Both are listed as questionable, but it sounds likely they’ll have Bam. There is a reason that Vegas has dropped this line 2-points compared to the last game and yet money and tickets are coming in on L.A. Bet the Heat in a close win or loss. |
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10-06-20 | Marlins v. Braves -1.5 | Top | 5-9 | Win | 106 | 4 h 45 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Run Line: Atlanta Braves (-1.5 runs) over Miami Marlins, Tuesday at 2:08 PM ET |
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10-05-20 | Falcons +7 v. Packers | Top | 16-30 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: Atlanta Falcons +7 over Green Bay Packers, Monday 8:50PM ET We understand you are going to have a hard time betting against the 3-0 Packers and betting on 0-3 Atlanta but that’s why they make pointspreads. The Packers have played nearly flawless offense in their start to the season which cannot last forever based on the Law of Averages. Atlanta has blown two 15+ point leads in their last two games (in the 4th quarter) and lost both games to fall to 0-3. Are the Packers and Falcons as good/bad as their records? No, we do not think so. If we turned back the clock and it was week 1 this line might be Packers favored by 4-points at best, so value clearly lies with Atlanta. The Packers were 7-point favorites at home against the Lions who are not as good as this Falcons team. Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense has been incredible, but the Falcons O is not far behind. The Packers average 460YPG, Atlanta 419YPG, Green Bay 40.7PP and Atlanta 30PPG. Atlanta has allowed 36PPG (most coming late in games) which is 31st in the NFL but the Packers are not much better allowing 28.3PPG and 6.6 yards per play which is 31st in the league. Atlanta has veteran-laden team with a particularly good road record and 5 straight covers away from home. The Falcons are 8-9 ATS their last seventeen as a dog but their loss margin is just minus -3.4PPG. Conversely, the Packers are 13-10 their last twenty-three as a favorite with a win margin of +4.6PPG. Those two differentials are obviously enough for an Atlanta Falcons cover. Grab the points. |
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10-05-20 | Astros v. A's UNDER 8.5 | Top | 10-5 | Loss | -107 | 5 h 40 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON UNDER the Total - Oakland Athletics versus Houston Astros, Monday at 4:07 PM ET at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles, CA |
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10-04-20 | Lakers v. Heat OVER 219.5 | Top | 104-115 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: OVER 219.5 Miami Heat vs. LA Lakers Game 3 Sunday - The Heat had a horrible shooting night in Game 1 which resulted in just 98-points. In Game 2 they bounced back and hit 51% overall from the field and made 11 of 27 from beyond the arc. Those were a drastic improvement over Game 1’s numbers of 43% and 31% and helped the Heat score 114-points against Los Angeles. Miami has the 4th best offensive efficiency numbers in the post-season averaging 1.143 points per possession which is nearly identical to their regular season PPP when they averaged 112PPG. Defensively the Heat were the 11th best defensive efficiency team in the NBA allowing 1.097PPP but in the Playoffs that number has risen to 1.115PPP. In essence, the Heat are scoring about the same as in the regular season but allowing more points per game in the Playoffs. Even without Dragic and Adebayo they still managed 114 in Game 2 and if we get a similar scoring output today this game goes Over easily. We haven’t forgotten about the Lakers who have put up 116 and 124 points in the first two games. In Game 1 they could have easily put up 130 had they wanted to but the game was out of reach early so they coasted down the stretch. The Lakers have shot 45% and 51% in the two games with Anthony Davis nearly setting a Playoff record in shooting percentage by hitting 15 of 20 from the field. The Heat don’t have an answer for the Finals MVP as Davis is an impossible matchup for them without Adebayo. The Lakers have the 2nd best offensive efficiency numbers of all Playoff teams as they average 1.170 points per possession and 98 possessions per game which is 7th highest. The pace of play numbers, offensive and defensive efficiency numbers suggest this will be a slightly higher scoring game than a normal NBA contest which was around 223PPG during the regular season. Our Model predicts 230 Total points and we couldn’t agree more with it! |
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10-04-20 | Browns v. Cowboys -4.5 | Top | 49-38 | Loss | -107 | 23 h 18 m | Show |
#260 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Dallas -4.5 over Cleveland, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET This is a huge game for the Cowboys. They cannot afford to drop to 1-3. They’ve faced a fairly tough slate having to go on the road to LA Rams and Seattle while facing Atlanta at home whose much better than their 0-3 record. Last week they led Seattle on the road 31-30 with under 2:00 remaining when Russell Wilson pulled more of his magic to pick up a win. Dallas outgained Seattle by over 100 yards in that game and averaged 6.5 YPP in the process. A week prior they outgained the potent Atlanta offense by nearly 200 yards despite having to come from behind to win that one. The Boys have a +0.8 YPP differential which is not indicative of a team that currently has a losing record. Meanwhile Cleveland is off 2 home wins and could step into this one a bit fat and happy as we like to say. However, those wins came at the hands of 2 of the worst teams in the NFL, Cincinnati and Washington and neither were all that easy. They held on to beat Cincinnati 35-30 and last week vs Washington they Browns trailed entering the 4th quarter before scoring 3 straight TD’s to pull away. Cleveland is now 0-7 both SU & ATS their last 7 road games losing by an average of 18 PPG. Going back even further, since November of 2014 the Browns are just 5-39 SU on the road and 17-27 ATS in those games. This is a much bigger game for Dallas and we’ll lay the points. |
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10-03-20 | Oklahoma -7 v. Iowa State | Top | 30-37 | Loss | -106 | 29 h 39 m | Show |
#123 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Oklahoma -7 over Iowa State, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - We are well aware that recent meetings between these teams have been close games. However, this line was in the double digit range and has dropped to a -7 and we feel we have exceptional line value here with Oklahoma primed for a blowout win. Last season's match-up between these teams was decided by a single point but the Sooners led that game 42-21 late and they won't make the same mistake this season. Yes, the Sooners are off an upset loss to Kansas State but OU had a 4-0 turnover deficit in the game. The Sooners actually had 28 first downs compared to only 10 for the Wildcats and yet they lost the game outright. This is helping to give us great line value this week with Oklahoma. The Sooners piled up 517 yards of offense in that game and now take on an Iowa State team that just allowed 499 yards at TCU last week. The Cyclones tight win over the Horned Frogs had a lot to do with a 2-1 turnover edge and the Frogs had 10 penalties compared to just 3 for Iowa State. The Cyclones also lost their season opener to UL Lafayette by 17 points. In that game they barely eclipsed the 300 yard mark in terms of total offense. The fact is that highly regarded Cyclones QB Brock Purdy hasn't been overly impressive so far this season as his completion percentage is down from the 2 prior seasons and he has thrown for an average of just 178 yards per game. Keep in mind last season Purdy threw for nearly 4,000 yards. The Cyclones simply won't be able to score enough here to keep up with an angry Sooners team that has a dangerous offensive attack and won't be able to be stopped in this one. Lay it! This will be a road rout for Oklahoma |
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10-02-20 | Heat v. Lakers OVER 216 | Top | 114-124 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: OVER 216 - Miami Heat vs. LA Lakers Game 2 Friday - We are betting the Heat do not have another horrible shooting night as they did in the opener. Miami’s points per possession numbers were fantastic coming into the Finals and then they could not buy a bucket against L.A. in Game 1. Duncan Robinson is one of the best shooters in the league and he went 0-3. Tyler Herro has made a name for himself in the postseason with a 37-point game, but he shot just 6 of 18 the other night, 2 of 8 from Downtown. Miami as a team shot just 43% overall and 31% from beyond the arc. Even though they will be shorthanded here with out Dragic and Adebayo they can spread the floor with shooters and play small ball. The Lakers pulled their foot off the gas in the opener and led by as many as 38 points in the game. The scored 116 but could have easily put up 130 had they wanted to. Los Angeles shot 45% overall and 39% from the field in their dominating win. Miami does not have an answer for Anthony Davis here and he will score at will. The pace of play numbers were good in the opener with 173 field goal attempts and by our calculations should have resulted in 222 total points being scored. These two teams had the highest offensive efficiency numbers in the post season and our math model predicts an average game for these two to finish with 224 total points. Bet Over! |
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10-01-20 | Broncos v. Jets OVER 40.5 | Top | 37-28 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: Over 40.5 Denver Broncos at New York Jets, Thursday 8:20 PM ET - These are two bad offenses as they rank in the bottom three in the league along with the Giants in most statistical categories. Both average less than 5.0 yards per play and less than 16PPG. So how can we bet Over here? For several good reasons starting with who each team has played and how it’s impacted their offensive numbers. The Jets have faced the Colts who are 1st in defensive efficiency this season, the 49ers who are 5th and the Bills who were 7th a year ago. The Broncos are in a similar boat as they have faced Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh who currently rank 2nd and 3rd in DEFF and the Titans who are league average. It’s no wonder these two teams have struggled offensively to start the season. Both will face defenses that are slightly above average and slightly below and should have a much easier time scoring in this Thursday night affair. Both teams do not waste a lot of time running their offense as they rank 10th and 11th in pace of play averaging less than 25.83 second to run a play. NFL teams are averaging 51 PPG combined this year. Overs are 30-18 on the season and through 3 weeks last season averages scores in the NFL were 44.5, so up almost a full TD per game. The other big key here is the actual number posted by Vegas. Average Totals set in 2020 / week 1 =45.5 / week 2 = 46 / week 3 = 48 / week 4 = 50. With this number being as low as it is we have to bet OVER here. |
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10-01-20 | Cardinals +146 v. Padres | Top | 9-11 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON St Louis Cardinals Money Line (+) @ San Diego Padres, Thursday at 7:08 PM ET |
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09-30-20 | Heat +5 v. Lakers | Top | 98-116 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on Miami Heat +5 over LA Lakers, 9PM ET Despite the Heat's lower seed to start the Playoffs, it’s evident these two teams are playing the best basketball of all NBA teams and deserving of this Finals entry. Miami and Los Angeles are the top two teams in both offensive and defensive efficiency in the postseason. The one great equalizer of this year’s bizarre Playoffs has been the neutral floor and we feel that levels the playing field for the young Miami Heat. The intensity, pressure, and atmosphere of playing on the road in Los Angeles is eliminated and gives this Heat team a legitimate shot to win this Championship. Miami will steal a victory in Game 1 for several reasons. The Heat matchup well with L.A. as Jimmy Butler, Jae Crowder and Andre Iguodala can all defend LeBron and Bam Adebayo can match up against Anthony Davis. Since 2013, Butler and Crowder have held LeBron to 42.2% shooting and below while Iggy is a notorious LBJ stopper. LeBron is leading all players in assists in the postseason but also in turnovers. Miami has a solid edge offensively with diversity as six players average double-digit scoring, four are scoring over 16.5PPG. On any given night it can be anyone for Miami which is extremely hard to defend. In comparison, the Lakers only have three players averaging 10+ points and rely heavily on LeBron and AD who average 26+. While Playoff Rondo has been great, we’re not really sure where the Lakers can turn to if LeBron and AD are limited while Miami has more scoring options. The Lakers have already lost two Game 1’s in a series and are notorious slow starters. Without the pressure we like the young Heat in Game 1. |
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09-30-20 | Yankees v. Indians +113 | Top | 10-9 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Cleveland Indians Money Line (-) vs New York Yankees, Wednesday at 7:08 PM ET |
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09-29-20 | Blue Jays v. Rays OVER 7.5 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -107 | 6 h 28 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays, Tuesday at 5 PM ET |
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09-28-20 | Lightning -1.5 v. Stars | Top | 2-0 | Win | 165 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON Tampa Bay Lightning Puck Line (-1.5 goals +165) over Dallas Stars, Monday at 8:05 PM ET |
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09-27-20 | Celtics v. Heat OVER 214 | Top | 113-125 | Win | 100 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on OVER 214 Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat, 7:30PM ET - In the last three games of this series we have seen 223, 221 and 229 total points being scored. Vegas has adjusted their number on these games with the line rising from 209.5 in Game 1 to 214.5 in this contest, but we still have value. The pace of the last three games has led to the higher scoring results as the two teams have gone from 162 field goal attempts in Game 2 to 170, 173 and 170 in the ensuing games. We look for anomalies in outcomes to accurately predict the future and the one glaring stat from the last game was how poorly the Heat shot from beyond the arc. Miami was just 7 of 36 from the 3-point line or 19% which was WELL below their season average of 37.4% that was 4th best in the league. Granted the Heat haven’t shot it as well overall against a stiff Celtics defense, but our model has accounted for that discrepancy and based this outcome on the Heat shooting 29% from beyond the arc. Miami isn’t the only team we need to score here to cash our Over. Boston has gained confidence in the last game and looked like the team that was predicted to come out of this series. The Celtics put up 121 in the last game with 45% shooting overall and 32% from beyond the arc. They also cut down on turnovers which has been a huge issue in this series. The average points scored in this series has been 223PPG per game and that trend continues here. Bet OVER |
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09-27-20 | Cowboys +5 v. Seahawks | Top | 31-38 | Loss | -108 | 22 h 3 m | Show |
#485 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Dallas +5 over Seattle, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - We’ve seen some solid line value with these week 3 games and this one is no exception. Our power rating have Dallas as a 3-point dog here so we’re getting at least a few extra points. The look ahead line on this game was Seattle -3 and -3.5 last week. Everyone watched Seattle beat New England on Sunday Night (barely) while Dallas was struggling at home vs Atlanta and came out with a miraculous win. That’s why 70% of the tickets have come in on Seattle here. The Seahawks are 2-0 but were outgained in both games including getting outyarded 506 to 383 in their season opening win @ Atlanta. The Falcons made a number of mistakes to allow Seattle to win that game and Russell Wilson was almost perfect with just 4 incomplete passes. Last week they held New England just short of the goal line as time expired to pick up a 35-30 win. Now Seattle is a bit overvalued. Dallas has played 2 down to the wire games losing @ LA Rams by 3 and winning last week by 1. We expect another very close game here and getting the Cowboys above +4 is great value. The Boys still have one of the top offenses in the NFL with weapons all over the field. After leading the NFL in YPP last year, they are currently 5th this season at 6.3 YPP. They will be able to move the ball and put points on the board here vs a Seattle defense that has allowed 6.7 YPP in their first 2 games, 3rd worst in the league. Despite their 1-point cover last week in a game they nearly lost, the Seahawks have not been a great home favorite as of late. Last season they were just 2-5 ATS as a home favorite losing 3 of those games outright. Dallas wea favored in their first 2 games but has been a very successful 7-2 ATS as a dog dating back to October of 2018. This one should be close so we grab the points. |
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09-27-20 | Marlins v. Yankees OVER 9.5 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -107 | 4 h 20 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Miami Marlins @ New York Yankees, Sunday at 3:05 PM ET |
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09-26-20 | Nuggets +5 v. Lakers | Top | 107-117 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on Denver Nuggets +5 over LA Lakers, 9PM ET If any team in the Bubble can pull of a dramatic come from behind series win it’s the “Cardiac Kids” from Denver. The Nuggets have already survived 3-1 deficits in the playoffs and one of those came against the Clippers who were favored to win it all. If a few bounces of the ball or calls by the officials had gone the other way in this series, it could very likely be 3-1 in Denver’s favor. That’s a testament to just how well they’ve played the Lakers in this series. Anthony Davis have been by far and away the best Laker in the playoffs as he leads them in scoring, rebounding and blocks but he did tweak an ankle in the last game, and despite finishing the game, looked a little gimpy afterwards. If AD isn’t 100% the Lakers don’t have the depth to overcome his loss. The Nuggets MUST get some contributions on the offensive end from someone other than Jokic and Murray and Michael Porter Jr. is that guy. In Game 4 Porter Jr. scored 13 points on 5 of 8 shooting in just 20 minutes. Yes, he’s a liability on defense but coach Malone has to live with that for the trade off of instant scoring. Denver is a respectable 23-12 SU off a loss this season and have won those games by an average of +3PPG. The Nuggets extend this series with an outright win on Saturday. (Small bet on the moneyline too) |
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09-26-20 | Tennessee v. South Carolina +4 | Top | 31-27 | Push | 0 | 28 h 17 m | Show |
#406 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON South Carolina +4 over Tennessee, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - Tennessee comes into this game with a lot of high expectations placed on them coming into the season. The Volunteers, including their 1-point win in the Gator Bowl over Indiana, have won 6 straight games and are ranked 16th in the nation entering this contest. That 6-game winning streak started with a big home win over South Carolina last season. However, South Carolina head coach Will Muschamp entered that contest having beaten Tennessee 7 straight times and that sets up this home dog revenge situation perfectly for the Gamecocks. South Carolina is flying under the radar a bit early this season because they are known for solid, physical defensive play but Muschamp's teams also are known for struggling to put many points on the board. That should change this season. We like the fact that new offensive coordinator, Mike Bobo (former head coach at Colorado State) has former Rams QB Collin Hill to work with. He is a graduate transfer and won the starting job from Ryan Hilinski. Of course Hill knows Bobo's offense well and that will allow the Gamecocks revamped offense to hit the ground running with Bobo's play-calling and Hill's leadership as a veteran with experience in this offense. Hill's college career started in 2016 at Colorado State so he has a lot of experience under his belt! Last year's match-up between these teams saw the Gamecocks lead 21-17 at the half but they were on the road at Tennessee and playing with an anemic offense and watched the Volunteers outscore them 24-0 the rest of the way. This match-up will play out much differently. Of course the ranked (and hyped) Vols are attracting attention from the marketplace but they also have had issues leading up to this game because of covid-19 cases. This has resulted in Tennessee not being able to have consistently scheduled practices. Now they go on the road playing right into the teeth of revenge and there is a very positive atmosphere right now in South Carolina as the team seems rejuvenated with the change at offensive coordinator. The Gamecocks also have stability on the other side of the ball with Travaris Robinson continuing as the defensive coordinator - a role he was hired for in December 2015 - and he has plenty of experience working with Muschamp. Upset alert in this one! We like South Carolina plus the points here. |
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09-26-20 | Cubs v. White Sox OVER 9 | Top | 5-9 | Win | 100 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Chicago Cubs @ Chicago White Sox, Saturday at 7:10 PM ET |
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09-25-20 | Heat v. Celtics -3 | Top | 108-121 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON: Boston Celtics -3 over Miami Heat, Friday 8:30PM ET It’s do-or-die time for Boston and we feel they respond with a double-digit win in this elimination game. Has Miami beaten Boston or have the Celtics beaten themselves? The Celtics committed 19 turnovers in Game 4 and have averaged 15.75 TO’s per game in the series. That is uncharacteristic for this team that averaged the 6th fewest TO’s in the league in the regular season at 13.6. The Celtics continue to shoot it well and have been better in the series in their EFG% percentage overall and even in Game 4 when they hit 48% from the field while Miami hit 44%. The difference for the Heat was incredible shooting night by Milwaukee native Tyler Herro. Tyler is going to be a good pro and is a capable scorer when he gets it going as I can attest to first-hand having coached against him numerous times in his youth. Boston will have a defensive answer for him tonight and put the onus on another Heat to pick up the scoring slack. Don’t you find it strange that the team up 3-1 in this series is still an underdog? Boston is a respectable 19-11 SU off a loss and we’ll back them one more time here. |
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09-25-20 | Lightning v. Stars OVER 5 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Tampa Bay Lightning versus Dallas Stars, Friday at 8:05 PM ET |
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09-25-20 | Orioles v. Blue Jays OVER 9.5 | Top | 5-10 | Win | 100 | 6 h 20 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays, Friday at 6:37 PM ET |
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09-24-20 | Lakers v. Nuggets UNDER 215 | Top | 114-108 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 2 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: UNDER 215 Lakers vs Nuggets, 9 PM ET - There is still value in this Total and we like a solid UNDER bet here. The first number on this series was 210.5 in Game 1 which finished well above the Total with 240 points. Then in Game 2 the oddsmakers adjusted the line up to 215.5 and only 208 points were scored. In Game 3 the Nugs and Lakers combined for 220 total points and an over (214.5) but it took 52% and 55% shooting by both teams to get there. The Lakers shoot 48% on the season while the Nuggets shoot 47% so you can seel they het well above their normal standards. In Game 1 these two teams attempted 166 combined FG attempts but in Game 2 that total dropped to 157. In Game 3 they combined for 160 FG attempts which is still well below an average NBA game of 177 which typically results in 222 total points. Combined these two teams are on a 11-1-2 UNDER run when playing on 1 day rest. This game will be much tighter as the intensity is ramping up for both clubs. Bet UNDER. |
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09-24-20 | Yankees v. Blue Jays OVER 9.5 | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -102 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays, Thursday at 6:37 PM ET |
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09-23-20 | Celtics -3 v. Heat | Top | 109-112 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: Boston Celtics -3 over Miami Heat, Game 4 Wednesday 8:30 PM ET We are going to side with Boston again in this critical Game 4 as a win here gets this series to 2-2 and turns it into the best of three. The Celtics in large part have outplayed the Heat in all three games but didn’t close out the first two games of the series. In Game 1 the Celtics were +12 going into 4th and faltered down the stretch. In Game 2 the Celts were up 13 at half and collapsed in the 3rd quarter. In Game 3 they led coast to coast in a comfortable win. Boston has Shot 50% and 48% last two games and the return of Gordan Hayward certainly helped with the late game rotations. The Heat have played great basketball in the Playoffs and have a great straight up record off a loss, but Boston has been the better team for better part of all three games and are still in a desperate situation. Miami as a short underdog hasn’t been great with a 5-7 ATS record when getting +4.5 or less points. Boston has an edge when it comes to shooting and can match the Heat defensively so we will go with the better team down 1-2 in the series. Lay the points in a close Boston win. |
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09-23-20 | Cubs v. Pirates OVER 8 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 37 m | Show |
ASA PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates, Wednesday at 7:05 PM ET |
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09-22-20 | Lakers v. Nuggets UNDER 214 | Top | 106-114 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: UNDER 214 Lakers vs Nuggets, 9PM ET There is still value in this Total and we like a solid UNDER bet here. The first number on this series was 210.5 in Game 1 which finished well above the Total with 240 points. Then in Game 2 the oddsmakers adjusted the line up to 215.5 and only 208 points were scored. Our analytics say Game 3 is going to be very similar to Game 2 in terms of pace and field goal percentages which will yield another UNDER the Total win. In Game 1 these two teams attempted 166 combined FG attempts but in Game 2 that total dropped to 157. Both teams shot over 45% for the game but when you aren’t playing fast and don’t get as many field goal attempts you just can’t score as many points. The Nuggets also did a much better job of keeping the Lakers off the free throw line as they limited them to just 19 attempts. Combined these two teams are on a 11-0-2 UNDER run when playing on 1 day rest. This game will be much tighter as the intensity is ramping up for both clubs. Bet UNDER |
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09-22-20 | Marlins v. Braves OVER 9 | Top | 1-11 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves, Tuesday at 7:10 PM ET |
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09-21-20 | Saints v. Raiders UNDER 49 | Top | 24-34 | Loss | -110 | 46 h 55 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON UNDER 49 Points – New Orleans @ Las Vegas, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - Many will simply look at the final scores from last week, see that the Saints put up 34 points, and just assume their offense rolled up big numbers. That’s not the case at all. In fact, their offense simply wasn’t very good in that win over Tampa. They tallied just 271 total yards and barely averaged 4.0 YPP. QB Brees looked old (he is) and struggled to throw for only 160 yards. He will now most likely be without his top target by far, WR Thomas who was injured last week. Two of New Orleans TD’s came on a pick 6 thrown by TB QB Brady and a short field after another Brady interception. The Saints defense, o the other hand, looked very solid vs what should be one of the best offenses in the NFL (Tampa). They made Brady look simply not very good and held the Bucs to just 4.8 YPP. Not a surprise as we had their defense rated very highly coming into this season after holding 6 of their final 9 opponents last year to 20 points or less in regulation. The Raiders put up 34 points last week but that was facing a Carolina defense we have pegged for near the bottom of the league. That final score was 34-30 and the 2 teams put up those numbers on 760 total yards. That means they were scoring 1 point for every 11.8 yards gained. In the Bucs – Saints game, they put up 57 points on just 581 total yards or 10.2 yards per point. Both of those games had extremely efficient numbers offensively which also has luck involved. To give you an idea, last season SF led the league at 1 point scored for every 12.9 yards gained which was worse than BOTH games we are discussing here. Both teams involved in Monday’s game scored over 30 points last week which gives us some solid value on the UNDER in this game. |
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09-21-20 | Stars v. Lightning UNDER 5 | Top | 2-3 | Push | 0 | 8 h 59 m | Show |
ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON UNDER: Tampa Bay Lightning versus Dallas Stars, Monday at 8:10 PM ET |
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09-20-20 | Nuggets v. Lakers -7.5 | Top | 103-105 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: LA Lakers -7.5 over Denver Nuggets, 7:30PM ET As we mentioned in our Game 1 wager on the Lakers, they have benefitted from some favorable scheduling and have caught all three opponents in the playoffs off extended series. First, they had the Blazers who had to battle just to get into the post season then beat Memphis to face the Lakers. In the next round they got a Houston team that was off a grueling 7-game series against Oklahoma City. Now they get Denver, who themselves have had two 7-games series and emotional come from behind wins when they were down 3-1 in both. Fatigue was the very obvious in the opener as the Nuggets were sloppy with the basketball, didn’t win the 50/50 balls and looked slower than the Lakers who scored 16 fast break points. The Lakers have the best playoff point differential at +8.9PPG and have won 9 of eleven playoff games by more than tonight’s spread. Los Angeles led by 27-points in Game 1 and the final margin of 12 does not do justice to how dominating a win it was for L.A. I was surprised this line didn’t come out higher than it did considering the Clippers were favored by as many as 9.5-points in their series against the Nuggets. L.A. can matchup with the Nuggets at every position, but the Nuggets can’t contain Anthony Davis. We will lay the points again with Los Angeles. |
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09-20-20 | Giants +5.5 v. Bears | Top | 13-17 | Win | 100 | 15 h 13 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON NY Giants +5.5 over Chicago, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET The Giants actually looked OK on Monday night. Their offense didn’t do much (lost 26-16) but that was expected vs a Pittsburgh team that just might have the best defense in the NFL. We had the UNDER in that game and cashed but here we like the Giants to play Chicago tight and possibly pull the upset. QB Jones played fairly well against a great defense minus his 2 interceptions (279 yards & 2 TDs). They had no running game but that should improve here vs a Chicago defense that allowed Detroit to run for 138 yards last week. RB Barkley will have a much easier time this week after his 15 carry, 6 yard performance last week. The Bears came from 23-6 down in the 4th quarter @ Detroit last week so they pulled off a huge division comeback win. The Chicago offense looked shaky at best with Trubisky at the helm for much of the game. He did lead them to the 4th quarter comeback but we cannot trust him as a significant favorite. The Giants defense actually impressed us last week holding what should be a very solid Pitt offense (with Roethlisberger back) to 349 yards on 5.5 YPP. They should improve on that this week vs a pedestrian Chicago offense. When these two met here in Chicago last year, the Bears escaped with a 19-14 win after trailing at halftime. We expect the Giants to be improved this year while Chicago we’re not so sure. The Bears have covered only ONCE in their last 7 games as a favorite (can’t trust Trubisky in this role) and NY is 10-2 their last 12 as a road dog. Giants have a decent shot at the outright win here so we’ll grab the points. |
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09-19-20 | Celtics -3 v. Heat | Top | 117-106 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: Boston Celtics -3 over Miami Heat, Game 3 Saturday We are playing on the Celtics minus the points here as a loss essentially ends this series with them down 0-2 already. Boston was solid this season when coming off a loss with a 18-11 SU record, 6-2 their last eight. Boston lost two straight games in the Raptors series then bounced back to win 2 of three so we know they’re capable of getting back into this series with a win here. Boston shot well in the last game and hit 50% from the field in Game 2 after a poor shooting night in Game 1. The Heat have played great basketball in the Playoffs and may still win this series but in this situation, we have to fade them. Miami as a short underdog hasn’t been great with a 4-5 ATS record when getting +2.5 or less points. With a 2-0 lead the Heat may relax a little in this one and leave the door open for the Celtics to get a win and cover. Lay the points in a close Boston win. |
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09-19-20 | Wake Forest +1 v. NC State | Top | 42-45 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 19 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Wake Forest +1 over NC State, Saturday at 8:00 PM ET - This is a great set up for Wake in our opinion. The Deacons were whipped last week vs Clemson losing 37-13 to what might just be the best team in the country. Now they take a huge step down in competition facing an NC State team that finished 1-7 in ACC play last season getting outscored by 159 points in the process (average ACC loss was by 20 points). While WF was getting a game under their best vs Clemson, the Wolfpack still have yet to play. On top of that, they’ve had a number of Covid outbreak interruptions which has limited their already shortened practice time. They were supposed to open their season 2 weeks ago vs Virginia Tech but that game had to be rescheduled September 26th. That’s not a great situation for a team that struggled last year and is trying to learn new systems on both offense and defense as both coordinators are new this year. The entire NC State coaching staff has pretty much been revamped over the last 2 year which disrupts continuity. Just 1 assistant remains on staff from the 2018 season. While NCSU’s coaching staff has had to go through massive changes, WF head coach Dave Clawson has turned this program from a doormat into a winning program. He took a perennial loser and has now led them to 4 straight winning season. Coaching edge is definitely with Wake in this game. NC State QB Leary returns after starting 6 games last year but we’re not so sure that’s a positive. He completed just 48% of his passes and was 0-6 in those starts losing by an average score of 41-16. When Leary faced off against Wake last year, he struggled to say the least completing just 17 of his 45 pass attempts with the Deacs winning 44-10. He now must face basically that same defense with Wake returning 9 starters on that side of the ball. The Demon Deacons have now won 3 straight in this series including 2 years ago here in Raleigh when they were heavy underdogs. The Pack was favored 3 times at home in ACC games last year and lost 2 of those games outright. Going back to the previous season NCSU has actually lost outright 3 of the last 4 times they’ve been a home ACC favorite. No fans in the stands here takes away any home field advantage NC State may have had. We think Wake is the better team, in the better situation, with no long travel (schools are 100 miles apart), and should be favored here. We’ll gladly take the points with the better team with a game already under their belt. |
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09-18-20 | Nuggets v. Lakers -7 | Top | 114-126 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: LA Lakers -7 over Denver Nuggets, 9 PM ET The Lakers have benefited from some favorable scheduling and have caught all three opponents in the playoffs off extended series. First, they had the Blazers who had to battle just to get into the post season then beat Memphis to face the Lakers. In the next round they got a Houston team that was off a grueling 7-game series against Oklahoma City. Now they get Denver, who themselves have had two 7-games series and emotional come from behind wins when they were down 3-1 in both. How much do the Nuggets have in their tanks against a well-rested Lakers team? The Lakers have the best playoff point differential at +8.9PPG and have won 8 of ten playoff games by more than tonight’s spread. The Nuggets have captured the attention and hearts of the public and are over-valued in this opening game. We are pulling for a great series here but feel the Lakers get a big win in the opener. |
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09-18-20 | Indians v. Tigers OVER 8.5 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 49 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Cleveland Indians @ Detroit Tigers, Friday at 7:05 PM ET |
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09-17-20 | Bengals v. Browns OVER 43.5 | Top | 30-35 | Win | 100 | 30 h 56 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER 43 – Cincinnati @ Cleveland, Thursday at 8:20 PM ET We like the value here as this total opened 46 and we’re now seeing 43. Our advice would be to play this NOW as we expect the total to head back up on Thursday. Look for the Cleveland offense and new HC Stefanski (former Minnesota OC) to come out with a chip on their shoulder on Thursday night after being held to 6 points last week @ Baltimore. They go from facing a top 5 defense to a middle of the pack at best defense which will help the offense. Cleveland’s defense last week allowed nearly 7.0 YPP to the Ravens and while we don’t expect that from the Bengals, they should have success moving the ball with Joe Burrow now at QB (193 yards passing & 46 yards rushing last week). The Chargers offense, with new QB Tyrod Taylor, actually moved the ball pretty well on the Bengals after the first few series. They were held on downs twice inside Cincy territory and missed a FG so their 16 points was a bit deceiving. The Chargers only punted twice after their first 3 series so they had chances to score points but didn’t. This has been a fairly high scoring series as of late with the last 5 meetings getting to at least 44 points. The average point total in the last 5 meetings is 49 PPG. In last year’s 2 meetings the offenses combined to average 6.0 yards per play while scoring 56 & 46 points. Now that this one is down to 43, we like the OVER. |
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09-17-20 | Lightning v. Islanders OVER 5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -123 | 9 h 34 m | Show |
ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Tampa Bay Lightning versus New York Islanders, Thursday at 8:10 PM ET |
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09-17-20 | Heat v. Celtics -2.5 | Top | 106-101 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: Boston Celtic -2.5 over Miami Heat, Game 2 Thursday 7PM ET We are playing on the Celtics minus the points here as a loss puts them in too deep a hole to get out of. Boston was solid this season when coming off a loss with a 18-10 SU record, 6-1 their last seven. The Celtics led by double-digits going into the fourth then couldn’t buy a bucket down the stretch in the 4th quarter and OT. Two of Boston’s big guns had horrible shooting nights as Tatum and Walker combined for 5 of 21 from the 3-point line. Expect a much better outing as Tatum shot over 40% from downtown this season, while Walking hit over 38%. The Heat have played great basketball in the Playoffs and may still win this series but in this situation, we have to fade them. Miami as a short underdog hasn’t been great with a 3-5 ATS record when getting +2.5 or less points. Lay the points in a close Boston win. |
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09-17-20 | Blue Jays v. Yankees OVER 9.5 | Top | 7-10 | Win | 100 | 8 h 0 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees, Thursday at 7:05 PM ET |
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09-16-20 | A's v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -104 | 6 h 53 m | Show |
ASA MLB TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Colorado Rockies versus Oakland A's, Wednesday at 3:10 PM ET |
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09-15-20 | Nuggets v. Clippers -7.5 | Top | 104-89 | Loss | -102 | 15 h 34 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: LA Clippers -7.5 over Denver Nuggets, Tuesday 9PM ET We are value bettors and this line has us on the Clippers in this Game 7. The previous numbers on games in this series have had the Clippers favored by -8.5-points and line drop has us on them again here. Is there a better big game player in the NBA than Kawhi Leonard? We don’t think so. The Clippers have blown 16 and 19-point leads in the last two games and we don’t see this veteran team blowing another one in this elimination game. Granted, we love this Denver team and the heart they play with but the situation and pressure is magnified tonight and we don’t see the young Nuggets pulling off another upset. LA is 24-6 SU this season when coming off a loss, 22-8 ATS. The Clippers were outscored by 13-points in the 4th quarter of the last game and blew a 7-point lead. We mentioned this the other day but the Clippers average margin of victory after a loss which is +14PPG. They’ll win by double-digits here and move on to face the Lakers in the Western Conference Finals. |
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ASA ALL Sports Top Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
11-30-20 | Seahawks v. Eagles OVER 48.5 | Top | 23-17 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
11-30-20 | Arkansas-Little Rock v. Duquesne UNDER 144.5 | Top | 76-66 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
11-29-20 | Chiefs v. Bucs OVER 56 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 48 m | Show |
11-29-20 | Saints -6 v. Broncos | Top | 31-3 | Win | 100 | 25 h 59 m | Show |
11-28-20 | Rutgers v. Purdue -11 | Top | 37-30 | Loss | -107 | 20 h 26 m | Show |
11-27-20 | Iowa State +1.5 v. Texas | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 29 h 17 m | Show |
11-26-20 | Texans v. Lions OVER 51 | Top | 41-25 | Win | 100 | 30 h 7 m | Show |
11-23-20 | Rams v. Bucs UNDER 48.5 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -114 | 29 h 24 m | Show |
11-22-20 | Packers v. Colts OVER 51 | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 26 h 32 m | Show |
11-22-20 | Steelers v. Jaguars +10.5 | Top | 27-3 | Loss | -109 | 23 h 59 m | Show |
11-21-20 | Liberty v. NC State OVER 64.5 | Top | 14-15 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 37 m | Show |
11-21-20 | San Diego State -114 v. Nevada | Top | 21-26 | Loss | -114 | 22 h 18 m | Show |
11-20-20 | New Mexico v. Air Force -7 | Top | 0-28 | Win | 100 | 29 h 6 m | Show |
11-19-20 | Cardinals v. Seahawks -2.5 | Top | 21-28 | Win | 100 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
11-18-20 | Western Michigan v. Central Michigan +1.5 | Top | 52-44 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 20 m | Show |
11-16-20 | Vikings v. Bears +3.5 | Top | 19-13 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
11-15-20 | Bills v. Cardinals -2.5 | Top | 30-32 | Loss | -106 | 23 h 34 m | Show |
11-14-20 | Hawaii v. San Diego State -10 | Top | 10-34 | Win | 100 | 25 h 56 m | Show |
11-14-20 | Miami-FL v. Virginia Tech -121 | Top | 25-24 | Loss | -121 | 22 h 3 m | Show |
11-13-20 | Iowa -3.5 v. Minnesota | Top | 35-7 | Win | 100 | 25 h 17 m | Show |
11-12-20 | Colts +2 v. Titans | Top | 34-17 | Win | 100 | 51 h 30 m | Show |
11-11-20 | Central Michigan v. Northern Illinois +8 | Top | 40-10 | Loss | -109 | 26 h 43 m | Show |
11-08-20 | Saints v. Bucs UNDER 51 | Top | 38-3 | Win | 100 | 30 h 46 m | Show |
11-07-20 | Oklahoma State -12 v. Kansas State | Top | 20-18 | Loss | -109 | 27 h 42 m | Show |
11-06-20 | San Jose State v. San Diego State OVER 47.5 | Top | 28-17 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
11-05-20 | Packers v. 49ers OVER 49.5 | Top | 34-17 | Win | 100 | 28 h 17 m | Show |
11-04-20 | Ball State v. Miami-OH -123 | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 23 h 57 m | Show |
11-02-20 | Bucs v. Giants +13 | Top | 25-23 | Win | 100 | 31 h 29 m | Show |
11-01-20 | Saints v. Bears +4.5 | Top | 26-23 | Win | 100 | 26 h 56 m | Show |
11-01-20 | Chargers v. Broncos OVER 44 | Top | 30-31 | Win | 100 | 25 h 9 m | Show |
10-31-20 | Ohio State v. Penn State UNDER 64.5 | Top | 38-25 | Win | 100 | 30 h 6 m | Show |
10-31-20 | Ole Miss -17.5 v. Vanderbilt | Top | 54-21 | Win | 100 | 26 h 60 m | Show |
10-27-20 | Rays +126 v. Dodgers | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 16 m | Show |
10-26-20 | Bears v. Rams -6 | Top | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 6 h 13 m | Show |
10-25-20 | Seahawks -3 v. Cardinals | Top | 34-37 | Loss | -120 | 27 h 47 m | Show |
10-25-20 | Dodgers v. Rays +1.5 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -113 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
10-24-20 | Notre Dame v. Pittsburgh +10 | Top | 45-3 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 53 m | Show |
10-23-20 | Dodgers v. Rays +1.5 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -125 | 8 h 34 m | Show |
10-22-20 | Giants v. Eagles -4.5 | Top | 21-22 | Loss | -104 | 27 h 1 m | Show |
10-21-20 | Rays +124 v. Dodgers | Top | 6-4 | Win | 124 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
10-20-20 | Rays +1.5 v. Dodgers | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -125 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
10-19-20 | Cardinals v. Cowboys +1.5 | Top | 38-10 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 34 m | Show |
10-18-20 | Browns v. Steelers OVER 51 | Top | 7-38 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 57 m | Show |
10-17-20 | North Carolina v. Florida State OVER 64 | Top | 28-31 | Loss | -109 | 26 h 22 m | Show |
10-16-20 | Dodgers v. Braves OVER 9.5 | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
10-14-20 | Coastal Carolina v. UL-Lafayette -7 | Top | 30-27 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
10-14-20 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Braves | Top | 15-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 22 m | Show |
10-13-20 | Rays -105 v. Astros | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 15 h 33 m | Show |
10-12-20 | Chargers +8 v. Saints | Top | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 46 h 14 m | Show |
10-12-20 | Astros v. Rays -124 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 16 m | Show |
10-11-20 | Astros v. Rays -132 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
10-11-20 | Dolphins v. 49ers OVER 51 | Top | 43-17 | Win | 100 | 18 h 22 m | Show |
10-10-20 | Arkansas v. Auburn -13.5 | Top | 28-30 | Loss | -117 | 22 h 14 m | Show |
10-09-20 | Heat v. Lakers UNDER 216.5 | Top | 111-108 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
10-08-20 | Bucs v. Bears UNDER 45 | Top | 19-20 | Win | 100 | 9 h 1 m | Show |
10-08-20 | Rays +126 v. Yankees | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
10-07-20 | A's v. Astros OVER 9 | Top | 9-7 | Win | 105 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
10-06-20 | Lakers v. Heat +7.5 | Top | 102-96 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
10-06-20 | Marlins v. Braves -1.5 | Top | 5-9 | Win | 106 | 4 h 45 m | Show |
10-05-20 | Falcons +7 v. Packers | Top | 16-30 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
10-05-20 | Astros v. A's UNDER 8.5 | Top | 10-5 | Loss | -107 | 5 h 40 m | Show |
10-04-20 | Lakers v. Heat OVER 219.5 | Top | 104-115 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
10-04-20 | Browns v. Cowboys -4.5 | Top | 49-38 | Loss | -107 | 23 h 18 m | Show |
10-03-20 | Oklahoma -7 v. Iowa State | Top | 30-37 | Loss | -106 | 29 h 39 m | Show |
10-02-20 | Heat v. Lakers OVER 216 | Top | 114-124 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
10-01-20 | Broncos v. Jets OVER 40.5 | Top | 37-28 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
10-01-20 | Cardinals +146 v. Padres | Top | 9-11 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
09-30-20 | Heat +5 v. Lakers | Top | 98-116 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
09-30-20 | Yankees v. Indians +113 | Top | 10-9 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
09-29-20 | Blue Jays v. Rays OVER 7.5 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -107 | 6 h 28 m | Show |
09-28-20 | Lightning -1.5 v. Stars | Top | 2-0 | Win | 165 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
09-27-20 | Celtics v. Heat OVER 214 | Top | 113-125 | Win | 100 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
09-27-20 | Cowboys +5 v. Seahawks | Top | 31-38 | Loss | -108 | 22 h 3 m | Show |
09-27-20 | Marlins v. Yankees OVER 9.5 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -107 | 4 h 20 m | Show |
09-26-20 | Nuggets +5 v. Lakers | Top | 107-117 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
09-26-20 | Tennessee v. South Carolina +4 | Top | 31-27 | Push | 0 | 28 h 17 m | Show |
09-26-20 | Cubs v. White Sox OVER 9 | Top | 5-9 | Win | 100 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
09-25-20 | Heat v. Celtics -3 | Top | 108-121 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
09-25-20 | Lightning v. Stars OVER 5 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
09-25-20 | Orioles v. Blue Jays OVER 9.5 | Top | 5-10 | Win | 100 | 6 h 20 m | Show |
09-24-20 | Lakers v. Nuggets UNDER 215 | Top | 114-108 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 2 m | Show |
09-24-20 | Yankees v. Blue Jays OVER 9.5 | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -102 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
09-23-20 | Celtics -3 v. Heat | Top | 109-112 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
09-23-20 | Cubs v. Pirates OVER 8 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 37 m | Show |
09-22-20 | Lakers v. Nuggets UNDER 214 | Top | 106-114 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
09-22-20 | Marlins v. Braves OVER 9 | Top | 1-11 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
09-21-20 | Saints v. Raiders UNDER 49 | Top | 24-34 | Loss | -110 | 46 h 55 m | Show |
09-21-20 | Stars v. Lightning UNDER 5 | Top | 2-3 | Push | 0 | 8 h 59 m | Show |
09-20-20 | Nuggets v. Lakers -7.5 | Top | 103-105 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
09-20-20 | Giants +5.5 v. Bears | Top | 13-17 | Win | 100 | 15 h 13 m | Show |
09-19-20 | Celtics -3 v. Heat | Top | 117-106 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
09-19-20 | Wake Forest +1 v. NC State | Top | 42-45 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 19 m | Show |
09-18-20 | Nuggets v. Lakers -7 | Top | 114-126 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
09-18-20 | Indians v. Tigers OVER 8.5 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 49 m | Show |
09-17-20 | Bengals v. Browns OVER 43.5 | Top | 30-35 | Win | 100 | 30 h 56 m | Show |
09-17-20 | Lightning v. Islanders OVER 5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -123 | 9 h 34 m | Show |
09-17-20 | Heat v. Celtics -2.5 | Top | 106-101 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
09-17-20 | Blue Jays v. Yankees OVER 9.5 | Top | 7-10 | Win | 100 | 8 h 0 m | Show |
09-16-20 | A's v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -104 | 6 h 53 m | Show |
09-15-20 | Nuggets v. Clippers -7.5 | Top | 104-89 | Loss | -102 | 15 h 34 m | Show |