ASA play on: #512 Charlotte Hornets -4.5 over Brooklyn Nets, 7PM ET – We are not big ‘revenge’ bettors when it comes to the NBA and even though that applies here, it’s not our motivation for betting Charlotte. No, our reason for betting the Hornets is line value. In Brooklyn the other night the Nets were favored by -1.5 points. That means the Hornets should be 7 or 8 here. Because Brooklyn is on a 9-1 SU run their last ten games it has forced the oddsmakers to over-correct here. The Nets have a very respectable road differential of -.6PPG with an 8-8 record but only two of their eight road wins have come against teams with winning records. Charlotte is 12-7 SU at home this year with a +5.1PPG point differential with their last two home wins coming by double-digits. Charlotte has a significantly better efficiency defense and is slightly better in offensive efficiency ratings.  The Hornets are 7-3 SU at home when coming off a loss this year and they’ll get a win tonight by more than the suggested number. We won’t blame Brooklyn if they look past the team they just beat with Milwaukee on deck tomorrow night. Lay the points.

ASA play on: L.A. Lakers +4 @ Sacramento Kings, 10PM ET – If you’ve been an ASA follower then you know we love to play on teams the immediate game following an injury to a super star. There are two key factors for this thought process. One, the line gets over-corrected because of public perception on the loss of a marquee player. These same two teams met in early November on this same court and the Lakers were favored by -5.5 points and won by 15. Now without LeBron the Lakers are getting +3.5 points. That’s tremendous value! Two, typically after losing a star player the other guys on the team take their games to another level to prove a point and they have an increased role. L.A. has a lot more weapons on this roster than I gave them credit for early in the season. Kuzma is going to be a special player in the NBA someday and continues to grow. Ball has proven he’s a solid player in this league despite not being a great shooter. They have decent depth now with Hart, Chandler, Stephenson and Zubac not to mention McGee who could be back for this game after a bought with the flu. The Laker have the much better defense in this match up with the 10th ranked defensive efficiency unit compared to Sacramento’s 22nd ranked. In terms of offensive efficiency, the Kings hold a slight edge with the 15th ranked unit compared to the Lakers 17th ranked. Sacramento is 9-7 SU at home this season but are just one of 9 teams in the entire NBA that has a negative home differential (-2.4PPG). The Lakers on the other hand have a positive road differential of +1.2PPG which is 8th best. The Kings have struggled when playing on back-to-back nights having lost 5 straight to the spread in that role, and the average loss margin has been double-digits. Without LeBron in the lineup this game loses a lot of its luster for the Kings who will take L.A. for granted. That’s perfect for us! The Lakers win this road game without LBJ.  

#579 Minnesota Timberwolves -4 @ Chicago Bulls, 8PM ET – Let’s just say this, laying points with teams in Chicago isn’t an intimidating thing as they have the WORST point differential in the league at minus -8.5PPG. Chicago’s home record is 5-12 SU this season but those wins came against teams with a combined 67-98 SU record, and only one has an above .500 record. Now you can look and say the Wolves are 3-13 SU on the road this season but all thirteen of those losses came against Western Conference opponents. Two of their road wins came against similar teams to the Bulls from the East (Brooklyn and Cleveland). The Bulls are the least efficient offensive team in the NBA at just 1.018 points per possession, Minny is 16th.  Chicago is the 22nd ranked defensive efficiency unit allowing 1.104PPP while the Wolves are 10th at 1.062PPP.  It’s clear the Wolves have played the much tougher schedule (12th) while the Bulls have played a soft schedule (21st) yet the T-Wolves have much better efficiency stats. This game won’t be close. Minnesota’s 6-1 ATS record versus the Bulls grows to 7-1 after tonight. 

ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON Seattle +2.5 over Kansas City, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET

As we stated a few weeks ago when we took Baltimore plus the points vs this KC team, we think the Chiefs are trending down late in the season.  After a red hot start, they are just 2-2 their last 4 games and their wins are not overly impressive beating a bad Oakland team 40-33 and then holding on to beat Baltimore at home 27-24 in OT.  After covering their first 7 games of the season, the Chiefs are now just 1-5-1 ATS their last 7 games.  Seattle is coming off an OT loss at San Fran (we were on the Niners) and they are not quite locked into the playoffs.  They are currently in the first wildcard spot and a win here would put them in for sure.  Seattle has been very solid at home with their only 2 losses coming at the hands of the Rams (by 2 points) when LA was playing at the top of their game and the Chargers, a game the Seahawks were at the goal line in the final minute with a chance to tie.  As a home dog this team is simply a big time money maker with an 11-1-1 ATS record in that situation.  Not only that the Seahawks have won 9 of those games outright!  On top of that, since 2003 they are also a perfect 5-0 ATS as a home dog in prime time (Sunday Night or Monday Night).  Want more?  With Russell Wilson as the starting QB the Seahawks are 13-2 SU at home in prime time games.  Now to the match up which favors Seattle in our opinion.  They are the #1 team in the NFL rushing the ball for 154 YPG while the KC defense cannot stop the run ranking 26th in YPG allowed on the ground and dead last in YPC allowed.  That opens up the passing game for Russell Wilson who’s often overlooked but having a fantastic season.  While the Chiefs offense is still very potent, the loss of RB Kareem Hunt is a big blow.  The last 2 games they’ve rushed for just 68 & 90 yards and their YPP production dropped off dramatically (5.5 & 5.3).  KC is trending down yet still favored on the road in a very tough venue vs a very good team.  We like Seattle to win this game at home so we’ll take the points. 

#226 ASA CFB 10* TOP PLAY ON Troy (+) over Buffalo, Saturday at 7:00 PM ET – DOLLAR GENERAL BOWL The wrong team is favored here in our opinion. We have these teams rated dead even and this is basically a home game for Troy. This game is being played in Mobile, AL which is 165 miiles from the Troy campus. When the Trojans played here two years ago they beat Ohio (from the MAC) 28-23. They brought 30,000+ fans to the game and a large contingent is expected again on Saturday. The Trojans were 2nd best team in the Sun Belt all season long right behind Appalachian State who already won their bowl game 45-13 despite losing their head coach and much of their coaching staff at the end of the regular season. Our 3rd rated team in the Sun Belt was Georgia Southern who already beat Eastern Michigan from the MAC (same as Buffalo) in their bowl game. Troy beat all of the bowl teams in the Sun Belt with the exception of App State who played host to the Trojans in the final game of the regular season and won 21-10. This team also beat Nebraska on the road earlier in the season. The MAC is again struggling in the bowl season (EMU lost, NIU lost, Toledo lost, Ohio won as of this writing) and the league is just 1-11 SU their last 12 bowl games. Buffalo lost to Northern Illinois in the MAC Championship game blowing a 29-10 lead losing 30-29. We think they’ll have a tough time bouncing back from that disappointment. On top of that, the team that beat them, Northern Illinois, was already crushed in their bowl game by UAB. Troy has a decent sized defensive edge here. They have been very good at stopping the run allowing just 3.3 YPC this season. It’s not as if the Sun Belt is a bad rushing conference either as this Troy defense faced 5 of the top 31 rush offenses this season. The Bulls rely heavily on their running game (42 carries per game) and Troy has the ability to shut that down. On the other side of the ball Buffalo allows nearly a full YPC more than Troy. The Trojans should control the trenches here. This is Buffalo’s first bowl game since 2013 while Troy is playing their third straight bowl game (won their bowl game each of the last 2 seasons). Troy has a veteran coach in Neal Brown that has led his team to a 30-19 ATS record over his tenure at the school. This Troy team has won 30 of their last 38 games going back to the start of the 2015 season. This program has a winning tradition while Buffalo is just starting to build theirs with their first winning season since 2013. Troy wins this one.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Ohio State -6 over UCLA, Saturday at 3:00 PM ET on CBS

UCLA comes in with just a 7-4 record and vs top 100 teams they are just 1-4 (Ohio State ranked 25 in Ken Pom).  That’s understandable as this is a very young team that is finding their way right now and should be better as the year progresses.  The Bruins start 2 freshmen and 2 more are key contributors off the bench.  They are 0-3 in road/neutral games and are coming off getting waxed @ Cincinnati on Thursday. (lost by 29 points).  The Buckeyes beat that same Cincinnati team on the road by 8 this season.   Now 2 days later the Bruins are still on the road in Chicago to play a very solid Ohio State team.  Not ideal for a young team over the Xmas break.  OSU has a big advantage today playing in the United Center as they’ve already faced Illinois at this venue a few weeks ago.  Ohio State won that game by 10 points.  The Buckeyes are a fantastic defensive team ranking 22nd nationally in defensive efficiency and 10th in eFG% defense.  Add that to the fact that the United Center is a very tough venue for shooting, especially when you haven’t played here, and we expect UCLA to struggle offensively.  On top of that, UCLA doesn’t get to the line a ton (17% of their points) and when they do they only make 61% which is one of the worst FT percentages in the nation.  Compare that to Ohio State that does get to the line a lot with 24% of their points coming from the strip (23rd nationally) and when they do get there they make 74%.  Ohio State made 47% of their shots and 23 FT’s here two weeks ago.  If they can come anywhere close to those type of offensive numbers, we think this is an easy win for the Buckeyes.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Purdue (-16.5) over Ohio, Thursday at 7:00 PM ET

The Boilers need a big win in the worst way and we think they get it tonight.  They come into this game with just a 6-5 record but they’ve played one of the toughest schedules in the nation (4th rated strength of schedule).  Purdue has already played 8 top 100 teams on the year and their losses have come at the hands of Michigan (4th in Ken Pom ratings), Virginia Tech (10), Florida State (16), Texas (30), and Notre Dame (54).  All of those losses, with the exception of their game @ Michigan, were close and games that were undecided in the final minutes (losses by 1, 4, 6, and 8 points).  This team could easily have a much better record.   In their games vs opponents ranked outside the top 55, the Boilers are undefeated with their wins coming by 9, 21, 22, 33, and 38 points.  Their other win came by 2 points vs Maryland who is currently rated 26th in the Ken Pom ratings.  Thursday they face an Ohio team that is rated 156th and has played a grand total of ONE team ranked in the top 100.  That was a game vs 71st ranked Xavier and the Musketeers rolled them by 21 points.  The Bobcats also lost to Loyola Marymount (108th) by 9 and South Florida (191st) by 27.  They are playing their 2nd straight road game after squeaking by a 3-8 Detroit team 63-61 as 7-point favorites.  The Boilers have struggled defensively this year vs a slew of good offensive teams, however they should get healthy on that end of the court in this game.  Ohio is not a good shooting team and they are terrible from beyond the arc making just 29% (311th nationally).  Purdue head coach Matt Painter has really stressed they must start improving on defense so an all out effort is expected here.  Offensively Purdue should put up big numbers as they are averaging 80 PPG at home (4-0 record).  This is a get well game for Boilermakers at home and we smell a rout.

ASA play on: Charlotte Hornets -13 over Cleveland Cavaliers, 7PM ET – Scheduling has a lot to do with this one as the Cavs played last night in Indiana and are playing their 3rd game in four nights, 4th in six days. The Cavaliers are thin to begin with as several key players are out including K-Love and Tristan Thompson. Charlotte meanwhile is fresh having been off since the 15th. The Hornets are also coming off two straight losses, both at home so they’ll be focused here. The Cavs are 3-11 SU on the road this year with the 3rd worse average differential of minus -11.7PPG. Charlotte is 10-7 SU at home on the season with a plus differential of +4.4PPG. We also have a bit of revenge on our side here too as the last meeting on Nov 13th was a Cavs blowout win at home 113-89. Earlier in November the Hornets beat the Cavaliers at home 126-94. The Cavs are 3-5 SU on the road their last eight games and the five losses all came by double-digits. Charlotte will get a huge win at home tonight and catch Cleveland in a letdown situation after their upset last night in Indiana.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON USC -8 over Santa Clara, Tuesday at 10 PM ET

Not much is being said about this talented USC team and that is in part because of their 5-5 record.  However, they have played one of the toughest schedules in the nation losing to the likes of Texas Tech, Vandy, Oklahoma, Nevada, and TCU.  Those 5 teams have a combined 45-4 record so nothing to be ashamed of for the Trojans.  When they’ve played lower tier competition, similar to Santa Clara, they Trojans have dominated.  Their 5 wins have all come by double digits.  USC comes into this game having played 3 straight games against top 30 teams and lost all 3 so they are hungry for a win here.  USC takes a huge step down in competition tonight facing a Santa Clara team that is 5-6 despite playing the 8th easiest schedule in the nation thus far.  All of the Broncos 5 wins have come against teams currently rated 313th or lower and considering there are only 351 teams, you can imagine how poor some of those teams are.  They did dominate two of those games vs Miss Valley State (ranked 350th) and Sonoma State (not ranked) but their other 3 wins vs that poor competition came by 7, 8, and 11 points.  Not overly impressive.  All but one of their 6 losses have come by double digits and their lone close loss was a 68-66 setback at home to Idaho State (ranked 250th).  Santa Clara is one of the youngest teams in the nation with 4 underclassmen starting, including 2 freshmen.  Not only that, 3 of their key reserves are also freshmen.  USC, on the other hand, starts 4 upperclassmen and 6 of their top 8 players were key members of last year’s 24-12 team.  The Trojans rolled over Santa Clara last year by a final score of 82-59 and they were in a similar spot losing 3 in a row entering that game all vs very good competition.  USC led that one throughout and they bring back players that scored 51 points in that game while Santa Clara returns only 1 player that played significant minutes in that game.  USC is the much better team here and they are backed into a corner in a must win spot.  They should roll in this one.

ASA play UNDER 209 Dallas Mavericks @ Denver Nuggets, 9PM ET – With scoring up in the NBA this season it’s hard to bet an Under with a number as low as this one, but our predictive analytics say there is still value here. Based on current pace of play, offensive and defensive efficiency numbers we are predicting a Total here of 199. The Nuggets are without three of their top five scorers this season as Will Barton (16.5PPG), Gary Harris (16.6PPG) and Paul Millsap(13.6PPG) are all injured. That’s a lot of points that need to come from somewhere else. Denver is coming off a very low scoring game against the Raptors (181 total points) and we see that style of play continuing here. The Nuggets are 5th in DEFF ratings allowing just 1.050 points per possession. Dallas is nearly as good, ranking 9th overall in DEFF allowing only 1.074PPP. The Mavs are coming off a horrible defense showing versus the Kings, but prior to that game had allowed an average of just 97PPP their previous four games. Denver is the 4th slowest team in the league while Dallas has slowed considerably in their last five games. In the two meetings on this floor last year these two teams produced totals of 180 and 207, both Under wins, which will be the case again tonight.

ASA Play OVER 217.5 Portland Trailblazers @ L.A. Clippers, 10:30PM ET – We like to put ourselves on the same side as the oddsmakers which means the Over is the call here. What we mean by that is simple. This is the third meeting of the season between these two teams with the most recent being November 25th. The O/U number on the first meeting was 225 and then 227 just a few weeks ago. Both ended up staying Under the Totals, but the first game finished with 221 total points (enough for a win here) and the second ended with just 204 BUT both teams shot horribly. In the game a few weeks ago, in Portland, the Clippers shot just 42.2% on 90 FG attempts, while the Blazers shot 42 of 97 or 43.5%. The Blazers are 14th in the NBA in team field goal percentage at 45.6% while the Clippers are 9th at 46.6%, so both shot well below their season averages in the last meeting. These two teams are both 10th or higher in offensive efficiency, the Clippers are 9th in pace while the Blazers are 19th. Neither is great defensively either with Portland checking in with the 17th worst defensive efficiency numbers, the Clippers are 19th. The Clippers are coming off a lower scoring game against the Thunder but OKC is one of the slowest paced and best defensive teams in the NBA. Portland isn’t! We are literally getting 10-points of value from the last Total on these two teams’ game AND it’s lower than the league average. The bet here is OVER the Total.

ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON Carolina +7 over New Orleans, Monday at 8:15 PM ET

The Panthers home vs road dichotomy is quite drastic.  They are just 1-6 on the road losing by an average score of 27-20.  At home, however, Carolina is 5-1 winning by an average score of 31-23.  Their lone loss here at home was a 30-27 OT setback at the hands of the Seahawks.  Much has been made of Carolina’s free fall as they have lost 5 straight games but keep in mind it has been a brutal stretch with 4 of those 5 games on the road.  Now they are backed into a corner and in a must win spot.  Because Minnesota won on Sunday, the Vikings are currently sitting in the final wildcard spot and the Panthers must win here to remain a half game out if the wildcard.  A loss here pretty much ends their playoff hopes.  Despite their 5 game losing streak, the Cats have actually outgained 4 of those 5 opponents and going back further they’ve outgained 8 of their last 9 opponents.  This is the first time Carolina has been an underdog since early November.  In that game they were +3.5 @ Pittsburgh and now they’re getting nearly a full TD at home vs the Saints who come in overvalued in our opinion.  New Orleans is 11-2 and they’ve already clinched the division.  However, their offense has taken a noticeable step back over the last 3 weeks.  Last week they beat Tampa 28-14, however their offense only averaged 4.8 YPP vs a defense that ranks 31st in that category allowing 6.7 YPP.  Over the last 3 games the Saints have averaged 4.8, 3.6, and 5.7 YPP which is way down from their season average of 6.1 YPP.  Two of those games were against Tampa & Atlanta, two of the worst defenses in the NFL.  The Saints have been outgained in 3 of their last 5 road games topping only Tampa & Cincy in total yardage.  Drew Brees has started to slow down as well after a sizzling start to the season.  After recording a QB Rating of 110 or higher in 9 of his first 11 games, Brees has put up a QB Rating of just 71 & 90 his last two games.  Despite the difference in their records, these two have very similar overall YPG differential stats on the season with the Saints at +40 YPG (+0.1 YPP) and Carolina is +26 YPG (+0.2 YPP).  The dog has covered 7 of the last 8 in this NFC South rivalry and we call for another here.  We give Carolina a great shot and winning this one so we’ll take the points.

ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON Over the Total - Vegas @ Columbus, Monday at 7:05 PM ET

The Blue Jackets have played well recently but have been stopped by strong goal-tending. Columbus has out-shot their opponents 114 to 77 in their last 3 games but lost 2 of 3. Look for the Blue Jackets to get a break tonight. If Marc-Andre Fluery starts again for the Golden Knights it will not only be a back to back spot, it will also be his 6th start in 10 days! This looks like a spot where back-up goalie Malcolm Subban, whom will be very rusty from a dearth of playing time, is very likely to get the start. Subban = plenty of rust and Fluery = needing of rest. The point is that, either way, Columbus is likely to have a huge night the way they've been putting pucks on net of late. The issue for the Blue Jackets here is that the Golden Knights like to play fast and Vegas has certainly "found their game" again in recent weeks. The Golden Knights have won 10 of their last 13 games and they've scored an average of 4 goals per game in their last 11 games. Vegas is 8-2-1 to the over in those 11 games. In their two games against Columbus (both last season) the Golden Knights got 38 shots on goal in each game. The Blue Jackets enter this game having averaged 38 shots on goal per game their last 3 games. The point is that this match-up should prove to be quite the battle of firepower with plenty of shots on goal in a non-conference match-up with the lamps being lit early and often in this one! Take the OVER tonight.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Vanderbilt +1 over Arizona State, Monday at 7:00 PM ET

This is a very tough scheduling situation for a very young ASU team.  The Devils played their first true road game on Saturday @ Georgia and now are again on the road @ Vandy just 48 hours later.  ASU expended a lot of physical and emotional energy on Saturday coming from 18 points down to beat Georgia 76-74.  The Sun Devils took their first lead of the game with under 3:00 minutes remaining.  They only had 7 players log double digit minutes and the starters all played at least 26 minutes with 3 of them playing 33+ minutes.  It’s going to be tough for this team, with 4 underclassmen in the starting line up, to come back at a peak level after that effort.  Not only that, Arizona State has a HUGE home game on Saturday as they play host to Kansas.  Coming off a big win and with that game on deck this young team might be glancing ahead.  They are playing a very good Vanderbilt team tonight who’s rested having not played since December 5th.  While we’re not a huge fan of 10+ days off continuity wise, we feel it will be a big advantage here for the Commodores facing a team on short rest.  Vandy has shot very well at home this year hitting 51% of their shots while allowing opponents to make only 39%.  They did lost their freshman point guard Darius Garland in late November, they’ve had nearly a full month and 3 games to adjust and they’ve done just that with their most recent game a 28 point win over Middle Tennessee State.  These two met last year @ ASU and the Devils rolled to a 76-64 win so Vandy has had that to think about on their 10 days off leading up to this rematch.  ASU has only one starter back from that game as this team has quite a different look from last season.  We think Vanderbilt will surprise people and we have them tabbed as one of the top teams in the SEC.  The situation heavily favors the Commodores and only have to win at home, they are the play.     

ASA 10* play on: # 523 Sacramento Kings +5.5 over Dallas Mavericks, 7PM ET - *Short analysis on football Sunday* The Kings are quietly going about a very solid season and exceeding preseason expectations. At 15-13 SU the Kings have the 9th best record in the West as of this writing. Dallas has also played well with a 15-12 SU record and have become more of a public team with Luka Doncic. Sacramento has an 8-7 SU road record with a positive point differential of +1.1PPG. They are just one of ten teams in the league with a positive road margin. Dallas was just a -4.5-point favorite at home a few nights ago against a Magic team that isn’t nearly as good as this Sacramento team. The Mavs have played three weak teams their last three games and have inflated numbers because of it. In their last five games the Kings have a +/- differential of +6.8PPG and have done it with 50% shooting as a team. The Mavs are -.2PPG their last five games and have allowed foes to hit 45% from the field. That’s a recipe for an underdog upset with the Kings. Sacto has covered 5 of the last six on this court.

ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON San Francisco +4 over Seattle, Sunday at 4:00 PM ET

We’ll back the ugly home dog here playing with short revenge against a team that has essentially locked up their spot in the playoffs. These two teams just met 2 weeks ago in Seattle and the Hawks won handily 43-16 as a 10-point chalk. But the final score doesn’t tell it all as the Niners racked up 452 total yards of offense and outgained the Seahawks by 121 total yards. The 49ers had some costly turnovers at key times including a 98-yard INT TD late in the game along with a 90+ yard kickoff return to set up an easy score for Seattle. The 49ers bounced back off that loss with a solid win over Denver who was in a must win situation last week. San Fran outgained the Broncos by 115 yards and have now outgained 4 of their last five opponents. Seattle is coming off a huge home win over Minnesota but did it with just 274 total yards and 60 yards passing. That game was just 6-0 late in the game too. Seattle has been outgained by 4 of their last six opponents and it catches up to them today. The Seahawks defense hasn’t been the “Legion of Boom” this season as they allow 6.3 yards per play which is 26th in the league. San Francisco’s defense allows just 5.4YPPL which ranks 11th best in the NFL. You’ll be surprised to know that the 49ers even have the better offense in this matchup with a unit that averages 5.7YPPL compared to Seattle’s which averages 5.6YPPL. Seattle takes this week off in preparation for their game next week against the high-profile Chiefs. San Fran will be highly motivated here, playing with revenge and will treat this like a playoff game. Underdog wins outright!

ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON Indianapolis -3 over Dallas, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

We love this spot for the Colts.  Indy is coming off a very solid performance beating Houston on the road last week.  That was a Texans team that had won 9 straight games coming into last week.  Andrew Luck was fantastic with 399 yards passing against a very good Houston defense.  The Colts are in a must win spot at home here as they currently sit behind Baltimore for the final wildcard spot.  They have the same record as the Ravens at 7-6 but Indy is out right now because they lose the tie breaker.  Dallas is coming off 3 straight huge home games beating Washington, New Orleans, and then Philly in OT last week.  Their big division win over the Eagles pretty much locked up the division for Dallas (99% chance to win division) so they may have a bit of a letdown here.  In fact, NFL teams coming off an SU & ATS overtime win have been terrible investments with a 13-30 ATS record the last 4 seasons.  The Cowboys are also just 2-4 on the road this year and they were actually outgained in their 2 road wins.  Dallas relies heavily on their running game to set up their passing game as Dak Prescott is not a QB that can carry the load by himself in our opinion.  Not much is said about the Colts defense, but they are very solid, especially against the run.  They rank 8th in the NFL in YPG allowed on the ground and 6th in YPC allowed.  If they can slow the Dallas running game, the Cowboy offense is in trouble.  If Prescott is asked to win this game, we don’t see it happening.  We’ll take Andrew Luck in that spot every day of the week.  Indy’s head coach Frank Reich was with the Eagles last year so he knows Dallas very well.  So does the Colt’s defensive coordinator who was the Dallas LB coach last season.  The Colts are an undervalued team in our opinion and they catch Dallas in a great spot for a letdown.  We’ll lay the field goal

ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON Buffalo -2.5 over Detroit, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

Which team allows the fewest YPG in the NFL?  Baltimore?  Maybe Chicago?  Nope.  The Bills are now the #1 defense in the NFL allowing just 290 YPG on 4.8 YPP.  That will be a huge problem for the Detroit offense today which has been terrible to say the least.  The Lions offense is averaging only 16 PPG over their last 7.  They were on the road last week at beat Arizona 17-3 with Detroit putting up only 218 total yards and actually getting outgained by the Cards who have the worst offense in the NFL averaging only 242 YPG.  Over the last 6 games this Detroit offense has averaged 4, 4.8, 5.2, 4.8 4.2, and 3 yards per play.  That’s simply terrible and they will have big problems again today against this staunch Buffalo defense.  The Bills are off a home loss to the Jets, however they ran 18 more plays and outgained NY by 120 yards.  Three turnovers were the key in that game.  The Bills are 0-2 the last 2 weeks and but have outgained those 2 opponents by a combined 360 yards!  They have outgained 4 of their last 5 opponents overall with 3 of those coming by at least 120 yards.  This team is undervalued right now because of that.  QB Josh Allen has put up 407 yards passing and 236 yards rushing the last 2 games!  The overall offensive numbers for Buffalo this year are not great but they are absolutely trending up on that side of the ball.  While they average just 292 YPG, they are outperforming that by a long shot as of late averaging almost 400 YPG over their last 4 games.  The last time they were held under 300 was against Chicago over a month ago and the Bills actually outgained the Bears in that game.  Buffalo is still playing hard and this is a big home game for them.  Detroit is on the road for the 2nd straight week, off a deceiving win last week, nothing to play for, and they have division rivals on deck (Vikings &Packers to close out the season).  It’s supposed to be cold in Buffalo today (35 degrees) with snow a possibility.  The road dome team will want nothing to do with this game today.  Lay the small number as Buffalo wins this one going away.

ASA CBB 10* PLAY ON Arizona -6.5 over Baylor, Saturday at 11:00 PM ET on ESPN2

We’ve been looking for a good spot to fade this Baylor team and this is it.  The Bears are nowhere near the team they have been the past few seasons.  They lost a number of key players off last year’s pretty average 19-15 team and they are step down from that squad this season.  The Bears are just 5-3 despite playing the 325th rated strength of schedule.  They have played one true road game (lost @ Wichita State) and haven’t played a game period since December 1st.  That’s 2 full weeks without any game action which is an absolute negative for Baylor in our opinion.  They have faced only one top 100 team this year (lost to Ole Miss on a neutral court) and many of their wins vs poor competition are not impressive.  The Bears lost at home to Texas Southern (ranked 224th in Ken Pom ratings), beat South Dakota (ranked 174th) by 6, beat George Mason (ranked 162nd) by 11, and beat Prairie View A&M (ranked 274th) by just 11.  Not an overly impressive resume for Baylor.  Arizona will be the best team they’ve played this season.  The Cats have had 6 days off (better than 14) since losing a tight game @ Alabama on Sunday (lost 76-73).  Unlike Baylor, the Wildcats have played one of the tougher schedules so far this season (ranked 56th SOS).  They are just 7-3, however their losses (besides Bama) have come at the hands of Gonzaga (ranked 6th in Ken Pom) and Auburn (ranked 9th).  They have also beaten two top 100 teams (UConn on the road & Iowa State on neutral court).  Arizona is 5-0 SU at home this year and rarely lose here at the McKale Center where they are 40-2 SU their last 42 games.  They have shot very well at home this year (49%) and they are lights out from the FT line hitting almost 77% as a team (27th nationally).  They should get plenty of free opportunities here as Baylor fouls and average of 21 times per game which is 295th nationally.  The Bears are a poor shooting team from deep hitting only 30% from beyond the arc and they make only 67% of their FT’s.  This should be a game Zona controls from start to finish and wins by double digits.

ASA 10* play on: #513 L.A. Clippers +6.5 over Oklahoma City Thunder, 9PM ET – Nobody or their brothers are betting the Clippers today but us and we’re totally fine with that. Scheduling wise, the situation clearly favors the Clippers as the Thunder are coming off a game last night in the higher altitude of Denver and playing their 3rd in four nights. OKC has some impressive numbers but they’ve played an EXTREMELY soft schedule of late that features the Bulls, Nets, Pistons, Hawks and Cavs in their last eight games. The Clippers are mired in a funk, but we expect them to snap out of it today. L.A. is coming a blowout loss in San Antonio on Thursday, so they have rest and motivation heading into tonight. The Clippers have not been an underdog of this size all season and that includes a game here earlier this season when they were +3. Grab the points with the Clippers who can win this outright.

ASA 10* Top Play ON Middle Tennessee State (+) over Appalachian State, Saturday at 9:00 PM ET - We don’t expect App State to be completely focused or prepared for this one. Their head coach, Scott Satterfield, took the head coaching job @ Louisville and took both coordinators with him. On top of that, their interim coach, Mark Ivey, who many of the players hoped would get the job was just eliminated from consideration. The new head coach, just named on Thursday, is an outsider from NC State so the emotional make up of the Mountaineers may not be at its best for this one. That won’t be a problem for MTSU. They are a senior laden team that really want this win. Starting QB Brent Stockstill is a 4-year starter that has over 12,000 passing yards and 105 TD passes! His dad, Rick, is the head coach at MTSU and you can guarantee this team is 100% focused on getting a win to close out this season. The Blue Raiders are coming off a disappointing loss in the Conference USA Championship game losing 27-25 vs UAB. We expect them to bounce back with a big performance here. MTSU has played the tougher schedule (79th nationally) facing 3 SEC teams and vs the 7 bowl teams they played, the Raiders were +39 YPG. App State has one of the easiest strength of schedule (112th nationally) and they were just +26 YPG in the 5 bowl teams they faced this season. MTSU will want to throw the ball here with their talented & experienced QB, it may look like they will have problems against an App State defense that has impressive numbers vs the pass. However, those numbers are as deceiving as they come. That’s because Mountaineers have played one of the easiest passing schedules in the country. The Sun Belt has a number of run heavy teams and that shows up in the defensive stats of Appalachian State. They have faced a grand total of ONE team ranked in the top 75 in passing this year and four of their opponents ranked lower than 100. We expect Stockstill to be able to move the ball through the air in this one. App State relies very heavily on the run (42 carries per game) and the MTSU defense has been solid stopping the run this year allowing 4.1 YPC. If you take out their 3 games vs SEC opponents the Raider defense has very solid numbers allowing just 3.69 YPC. Middle Tennessee comes into this game with an 8-5 record with 3 of those setbacks vs SEC teams (all bowl teams). Their other two losses came by 2 points in the Conference USA Championship game and 3 points. We expect a close game here and with MTSU having the motivational edge, we give them a solid shot at the outright upset. Take the points.

ASA CBB 10* PLAY ON Under 128.5 points - College of Charleston @ VCU, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET

We used the UNDER when VCU traveled to Texas recently and cashed easily on that game.  We expect to do just that again here.  The Rams are a fabulous defensive team ranking 8th nationally in defensive efficiency and 2nd nationally in defensive eFG%.  They have held 6 of their 10 opponents under 60 points and two others reached just 61 points.  As good as they are defensively, VCU is a poor offensive team.  They are one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the nation (28%) and their eFG% ranks 315th nationally.  They win with defense and that’s how they play.  Much of their offense comes off turnovers, however Charleston won’t let that happen as they turn the ball over just 14% of the time ranking them 9th nationally.  As bad as VCU is from deep, C of C is worse making only 27% of their 3’s ranking them 323rd nationally.  We won’t get much scoring from deep here to say the least.  As we stated in our write up on the VCU-Texas Under, many feel the Rams are a fast paced team because they press but that is not the case.  The rank 190th in adjusted tempo.  Charleston loves to play slow as they are 330th in adjusted tempo (out of 351 teams).  A slow paced game, with two below average offenses, and solid defenses leads to a low scoring affair.  UNDER is the play.

ASA CBB 10* PLAY ON Over 168.5 Points - UW Green Bay @ Creighton, Friday at 9:00 PM ET

These are two of the faster paced teams in the country and neither play defense at a high level.  There won’t be much in the way of half court offense in this game.  UWGB ranks 9th nationally in adjusted tempo while Creighton ranks 85th.  Remember those numbers are based on the tempo they’ve played vs their opponents and many of their opponents like to play slow.  Creighton has already played 7 opponents who rank below 200 in adjusted tempo so those teams are trying to slow the game down when the play the Blue Jays.  UWGB has played 3 opponents ranked 175 or lower in adjusted tempo.  The point being, the numbers, as fast as they are, tend to be skewed as they do play slower paced teams.  With both wanting up tempo tonight, this game should have a ton of possessions.  Defensively these teams are not very good.  Creighton ranks 283rd nationally in eFG% defense while UWGB ranks 223rd in the same category.  Offensively, the Jays rank #1 nationally in eFG% and the Phoenix aren’t bad in that area hitting over 51%.  Creighton just played Nebraska over the weekend, a team that is great defensively and is slow paced and they totaled 169 points.  The Blue Jays have scored at least 87 points in 5 of their last 6 games.  UWGB has scored at least 82 points in 7 of their 10 games.  The Phoenix have played 2 teams this year ranked in the top 100 in adjusted tempo and those games totaled 192 and 175 points.  Creighton has played only one team ranked in the top 100 in adjusted tempo and that game totaled 195.  This one should be a shootout and we’re on the OVER.

ASA play on: #560 Houston Rockets -5.5 over LA Lakers, 8PM ET – Every game LeBron’s involved in there is value on the other side. With public money and tickets streaming in on L.A. the oddsmakers should be moving the number on this game but they aren’t. That tells me they like it where it is. These same two teams met in Los Angeles earlier this year and the Rockets were favored by 3.5 points on the road. Now they are laying a few more points at home. Houston and L.A. got into a riff that game when Rondo and CP3 got into a spat (pun intended). The records of these two teams are very misleading as the 17-10 Lakers have played the 25th easiest schedule in the NBA this season. They are just 3-3 SU their last six on the road. The 12-14 Rockets have played the 3rd toughest schedule and have a 6-1 SU home streak going with wins over Portland, Golden State and Indiana who are all better than the Lakers. Houston has covered 13 of the last eighteen meetings and they’ll get this home win by 10 or more.

ASA Under 217.5 Milwaukee Bucks at Indiana Pacers, 7PM ET – The number our math model has come up on this game is 213 and we agree. This game features the 3rd (Indiana) and 4th (Milwaukee) best defensive efficiency units in the NBA and the number is only slightly lower than the league average. In their last five games both teams have turned up the defensive intensity even more as the Bucks allow just 1.005 points per possession while the Pacers allow .968PPP. The Pacers have allowed an average of just 97.8PPG their last five game, the Bucks have allowed 104.8PPG. Milwaukee has also struggled with their shooting in their last five games as they’ve averaged just 43.9% from the field which is drastically less than the 47.8% season average. Indiana averages less than 100 possessions per game at home this season and they’ll dictate tempo here. The Under is 5-2 the L7 meetings. Bet UNDER!

ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON Over: Detroit @ Washington, Tuesday at 7:35 PM ET

The Capitals could get TJ Oshie back tonight. Even if they don't, Washington's production on offense has already been on a surge and they're going to take advantage of a Red Wings team that is in a back to back spot. Detroit did win 3-1 last night but they allowed 43 shots on goal and now may have to go with their back-up goalie tonight since it is a B2B situation. Washington has won 9 of its last 11 games thanks in large part to averaging 4.2 goals per game during this hot streak. The Red Wings last two games have been rather low-scoring (total of 5 goals in 2 games scored by Detroit) but, prior to this they had scored 4 or more goals in 5 of their 6 previous games. Those 6 games went 5-1 to the over and the Red Wings are 10-5-1 to the over in their last 16 road games with a total set at 6 goals or more. The Capitals are 3-0 to the over this season when they enter a game having played each of their 3 previous games on the road. Only 7 of the last 21 meetings between these teams in the nation's capital have resulted in an under. Plenty of goals again in this one! Bet the OVER at Washington tonight.

ASA CBB 10* PLAY ON Central Florida -9.5 over Georgia Southern, Tuesday at 7:00 PM ET

This is a bad match up for Georgia Southern.  The Eagles are a bad 3-point shooting team (26% ranks them 334th nationally) that needs to be able to score inside the arc to have a chance.  That will be a struggle tonight as UCF defends inside the arc as well as anyone in the country allowing just 40% which is 5th best nationally.  Part of that is due to their length and shot blocking ability.  The Knights are one of the tallest teams in the nation with 7’6 Tacko Fall manning the middle.  Their block shot rate is almost 15% which ranks them in the top 25 nationally.  They’ll be facing a GSU team that doesn’t have anyone in their rotation taller than 6’8.  UCF has a HUGE edge defensively in this game ranking 13th nationally in defensive efficiency and 12th in the country in eFG% defense.  Georgia Southern ranks 163rd and 223rd respectively in those 2 categories.  The Knights are playing their 2nd straight home game while GSU is on the road for the 2nd time in 4 days after they upset Mercer on the road on Saturday making nearly 40% of their 3’s which as we stated above was an outlier.  The Eagles have played only one team ranked in the top 100 this year and that was @ Arizona where they lost 100-70.  For comparison’s sake, UCF is actually rated as a stronger team right now than Arizona ranking 44th nationally while the Wildcats sit at 48th.  GSU wants to play fast and they’ll have trouble doing that here as UCF is one of the slowest paced teams in the nation.  Look for UCF to slow this one down and frustrated an Eagle team that thrives one getting easy baskets.  They won’t be able to do that tonight and we see Central Florida pulling away in the 2nd half for an easy win.  The Knights have been a big time money maker at home going 37-16 ATS their last 53 games here.  Add another spread win to the ledger tonight.  Take UCF.

ASA NFL 10* PLAY ON Over 47 Points - Carolina @ Cleveland, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

Both teams are coming off misleading finals last week and played in games that stayed below the posted totals. The Browns were in Houston last week and their game ended with just 42 total points. The Texans put up 29 but the Browns managed just 13. Cleveland racked up 428 total yards of offense but missed on several scoring opportunities with key turnovers. Had the Browns averaged their normal yards per point (16.3) in that game they would’ve scored 26 points. The Cleveland defense has gotten steadily worse as the year has gone on as they gave up less 20PPG average in their first three games but have now allowed over 28PPG their last seven games. Cleveland’s offense has moved the ball in their last four games with 388 yards, 427, 342 and 428 total yards. Carolina has the 27th ranked yards per points allowed defense at 13.8YPPT and is giving up 26PPG. The Panthers are coming off a deceiving game last week with just 17 points against the Bucs. Cam Newton threw 4 costly interceptions, including one in the redzone while the Bucs fumbled once going into score. Both had key penalties that cost them TD’s instead of field goals or that game would have been much higher scoring. The Panthers have a top 10 efficiency offense that averages 25.3PPG and 14.9YPPT. Look for both offenses to rebound after poor showings a week ago which leads to a shootout. The numbers say OVER the total!

ASA CBB 10* PLAY ON Nebraska -7.5 over Creighton, Saturday at 6:00 PM ET

The Huskers have the best team they’ve had in a long time and if they are ever going to knock off their little brother, today is the day.  The Huskers have lost 7 straight years vs the Blue Jays and this is perhaps their most anticipated home game of the season.  They’ve been waiting for this one and we expect the Huskers to be at the top of their game as they attempt to win their 17th straight home game dating back to last year.  Nebraska should have even more incentive as they are coming off a loss @ Minnesota earlier this week.  It was a game they led by 10 with just over 8:00 minutes remaining only to see the Gophers outscore them 27-10 down the stretch.  The Nebraska defense was poor in that game allowing Minny to hit 52% of their shots.  However, that is a rarity with this team as they have been outstanding defensively this year ranking 4th nationally in eFG% defense (11th nationally defending the 3 & 9th nationally defending inside the arc).  After that poor effort, we can expect a high level performance defensively on Saturday.  This is Creighton’s first true road game of the season and we like fading teams on the road that rely heavily on the 3-point shot.  The Blue Jays are the definition of that as over 40% of their points come from deep (16th nationally).  Hot shooting often doesn’t travel well and this Blue Jay team cannot rely on their defense to keep them in the game if they aren’t on from deep.  They rank just 250th nationally in eFG% defense and they will struggle slowing down a very talented Nebraska offense in this game.  In their meeting last year, the Huskers led at half @ Creighton and the Blue Jays only led by 3 with under 1:00 minute remaining in what turned out to be a 75-65 win.  Nebraska returns 52 of their 65 points scored in that game while this young Creighton team (301st nationally in experience) returns just 23 of their 75 points.  The Huskers continue to be undervalued in our opinion with a 6-2 ATS record this year and a 24-6-1 spread mark dating back to last year.  They are 21-1 here since the start of last season with their only loss coming by 1-point last season vs Kansas.  This is the game they really want and we have a feeling that Nebraska will roll in this one.

ASA CBB 10* PLAY ON Over 137 Points - Wisconsin @ Marquette, Saturday at 5:00 PM ET

Being in Wisconsin we follow these two teams very closely and feel we are getting some value on the OVER here.  Marquette just played Kansas State a week ago and that total was set the same as this one.  Based on the numbers, it shouldn’t be the same, this one should be higher.  That’s because Wisconsin and KSU are very similar defensively (13th and 5th in defensive efficiency respectively) but the Badgers are far better than the Cats in almost every category.  KSU & Marquette scored 154 total points in that game and we expect these two to reach into the 140’s at minimum.  Last year’s total in this game was set at 141 and Wisconsin was nowhere near as good offensively and the two totaled 145 points.  While Wisconsin still plays slow, they push a bit more than past years and their offensive production is being overlooked here.  They rank 17th nationally in offensive efficiency and they are the 12th best 3-point shooting team in the nation.  And that’s facing a tough schedule having already played 7 top 100 teams (16th most difficult strength of schedule thus far).  Marquette’s defense looks improved but they have allowed 70+ points vs every top 100 team they’ve played this year (4).  The offense is good just as it was last year with solid shooters all over the court.  The only 2 teams to hold Marquette to less than 70 points were Kansas (4th in defensive efficiency) who held them to 68 and UMBC in the first game of the year which was a blowout so Marquette called off the dogs (Won 67-42).  We have 2 very good shooting teams in this game and while the defenses will have their moments, we expect both to push into the 70’s in this game so the OVER is the play.

ASA CBB 10* PLAY ON Oklahoma State -2.5 over Houston, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET

Houston comes into this game with an undefeated record, however they have played the 2nd easiest schedule in the nation thus far.  The Cougars have played 6 home games and just 1 road game this season and they have faced only one team ranked inside the top 70.  Five of their seven opponents are currently ranked 240th or lower.  This is a tough spot for Houston as after this game they return home to face LSU next week which is a huge revenge game for them.  They lost by 3 points @ LSU and missed two 3-pointers in the final 10 seconds in an attempt to send the game to OT.  Okie State, on the other hand, has played one of the toughest schedules in the nation thus far.  They are just 4-4 but have played only 2 home games this year.  The Cowboys are coming off back to back losses @ Minnesota & @ Tulsa and really need a win here, their first home game since November 18th.  Despite playing all but 2 of their games away from home, OSU has shot the ball very well ranking 26th nationally in eFG% (56%) and 10th nationally in 3-point FG% (43%).  Houston relies heavily on the 3 point shot (39% of their points – 35th nationally) which can be tough to lean on when playing away from home.  We think Houston comes in a bit flat while OSU is backed into a corner at home.  With this line sitting at OSU -1, simply pick the winner here and we feel that will be the Cowboys.

ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON Minnesota @ Edmonton, Friday at 9:05 PM ET

Even though this is a back to back spot for the Wild it is set up very well. Minnesota used their back-up goalie last night at Calgary so that Devan Dubnyk would get the start tonight at Edmonton. Dubnyk was originally drafted by the Oilers and he is 3-1-0 with a 1.24 GAA and a .947 save percentage in his four road starts against the Oilers since he came to the Wild from the Coyotes in 2015. Overall, the Oilers have struggled badly when hosting the Wild as Edmonton has won just 2 of their last 16 meetings with Minnesota north of the border! Even though this is a back to back for the Wild, they've gone 4-1 this season when in the 2nd game of a back to back. Of course coming off a shutout loss adds to the motivation factor here so the Wild will surely be ready to go here. The Oilers rallied late to tie the game at St Louis Wednesday and then they won in the shootout so they are off a fortunate win. Also, Edmonton has lost 13 of their last 19 Friday games. Minnesota has won 5 of their last 6 when they are off a game which they lost by a double digit margin. Bet the WILD on the money line tonight.

ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON Jacksonville +6 over Tennessee, Thursday at 8:20 PM ET

These two met earlier this year and the Jags were favored by 10 at home.  Now they are a 5.5 or 6 point underdog which means this game has swung more than 2 TD’s from the first meeting which is too much.  The Titans did win that first match up by a final score of 9-6.  The Jaguars seem to get an emotional boost last week when they replaced Bortles with Kessler at QB.  They beat a red hot Indy team that had won 5 straight games averaging 35 PPG over that span.  The Jax defense held the Colts scoreless on just 3.9 YPP.  Now they face a Tennessee offense that ranks near the bottom of the NFL in YPG, YPP, and scoring (18 PPG).  Now the Titans are being asked to win by nearly a TD against a defense that shut them down to 233 yards on 4.1 YPP in the first meeting.  That’s going to be very tough in our opinion.  The Jags offense isn’t great obviously but we think the insertion of Kessler at QB can’t be any worse than Bortles.  He threw for 150 yards last week but more importantly didn’t turn the ball over and let his defense win the game for him.  That’s the recipe for success again tonight.  Jacksonville will get a boost with their top RB Fournette back this week after serving his one game suspension in last week’s win.  Despite their records, Jacksonville is +20 YPG with their 4-8 record while Tennessee is -30 YPG and sit at .500 (6-6).  Four of Tennessee’s six wins have come by 4 points or less and tonight will be no different.  If the Titans win, we expect a close game and we’ll give the Jaguars a decent shot to win the game outright.

ASA CBB 10* PLAY ON Purdue -6.5 over Maryland, Thursday at 7:00 PM ET

Purdue will be extra hungry for a win after losing 2 straight and 3 of their last 4.  The Boilers 3 losses this year have come against top tier opponents all ranked in the top 17 according to Ken Pom.  They lost by 6 to Va Tech (ranked 10) on a neutral court, lost by 1 @ Florida State (ranked 17), and were just beaten bad @ Michigan (ranked 5).  Now back home after getting walloped by the Wolverines we expect an all out effort from the Boilers.  They are 3-0 at home this year and Purdue has won 26 of their last 27 games at Mackey Arena.  Not only do the Boilers win at home, most of the time they win handily with 17 of their last 26 home wins coming by double digits.  Tonight they take on a very young Maryland team that ranks 350th in experience out of 351 teams.  Of the Terps top 9 players in terms of minutes played, 5 are freshmen.  They have played just one road game the entire season and that was way back on November 9th.  Not only that, their opponent in that game was Navy so the game was @ Navy which is just 30 miles away from the Maryland campus.  The young Terps won that game but let’s keep in mind Navy is currently ranked 321st (out of 351) and has just two wins this year vs Coppin State & Bryant.  We think this Maryland team has some promise this year, however this is a terrible spot for a team that has played 6 straight home games.  Most of their key contributors have never experience a venue like Mackey Arena and the Boilers are backed into a corner.  Purdue was favored by 14 here last year in this match up and now they are laying half that number vs a Maryland team that overturned much of their roster.  Lay it with Purdue.

ASA CBB 10* PLAY ON Under 137 Points - VCU @ Texas, Wednesday at 8:00 PM ET

VCU likes to pressure full court but they are not an overly fast paced team as most tend to think.  They rank 143rd nationally in adjusted tempo and Texas ranks 152nd in the same category.  So both are near the middle of the pack in college basketball when it comes to tempo.  Where both are near the best in college basketball is on the defensive end of the court.  The Horns rank 12th nationally in defensive efficiency and VCU ranks 19th.  The Rams also rank 3rd nationally in eFG% defense and also 3rd nationally at defending the 3-point line.  We expect both teams to struggle from deep in this one as neither shoots the 3 well (30% for Texas & 29% for VCU).  Not only do these teams struggle to score from deep, neither are very good shooting teams in general with both sitting at 47% for their eFG% which ranks them around 250th nationally.  Both have problems at the FT line as well with each hitting only 65% of their freebies.  Only one team this season has topped 61 points vs VCU in regulation and that was St Johns who’s one of the fastest paced teams in the nation and 26th nationally in offensive efficiency.  Only two teams have topped 70 points this year on Texas and those were Michigan State & North Carolina who are ranked 4th & 6th nationally in offensive efficiency which is far superior offensively to VCU (ranked 239th in offensive efficiency).  Both defense are far ahead of the offenses in this one and while this total opened 133, it has jumped to 137 which gives us some value on the UNDER.    

ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON OVER: Tampa Bay @ Detroit, Tuesday at 7:35 PM ET

The Lightning are still without injured goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy. That is why back-up Louis Dominque has started 11 straight games. However, this is a back-to-back situation (the first during this stretch) and that means the Bolts are in a predicament here. Do they let Dominque start again (he was in goal for last night's win at New Jersey) or do they give the start to Eddie Pasquale? The latter option would mean a journeyman who has spent most of his career in the minors would be getting the start. The former option would mean a goalie not use to going back to back would be doing it plus it would be complicated by the fact that both starts were on the road. Either way we are confident this opens the door for the Red Wings to have a successful night in the offensive zone. The key to the over though is that Detroit is very unlikely to stop this red hot Lightning offensive machine. Tampa Bay has scored 5 goals in 3 straight games and, incredibly, the Lightning have now scored 4 or more goals in 13 of their last 16 games! The over is 9-4-2 in Tampa Bay's last 15 games. The over is a perfect 3-0 this season when the Bolts re plying the 2nd game of a back to back. The Red Wings are off a shutout loss but the over was 3-0 in their 3 prior games as they averaged scoring 4.3 goals per game in those 3 games. The Lightning have scored average of 4 goals per game in their last 3 games against Detroit! We look for the lamp to be lit early and often in this one. Take the OVER tonight.

ASA CBB 10* PLAY ON Oklahoma -3 over Notre Dame, Tuesday at 7:00 PM ET

The Irish come into this game with a 6-1 record but they have played one of the easiest schedules in the nation thus far.  Their strength of schedule ranks 320th nationally and they have yet to leave their home arena.  The Sooners, on the other hand, will be more than ready for this setting as they have already played 2 true road games AND 3 neutral site games this season.  They have also played the MUCH tougher schedule ranking 36th in SOS.  Okie is 6-1 as well, but they have already played 4 top 100 teams and their lone loss was to #13 Wisconsin on a neutral site.  The Sooners have been very good defensively ranking 28th nationally in defensive efficiency and 26th in eFG% defense.  They are fantastic defending inside the arc allowing opponents to shoot just 37.7% (3rd nationally) and they do not send teams to the line as just 20% of their opponents points have come from the charity stripe (3rd best in the nation).  That’s going to be a huge problem for a Notre Dame team that has relied heavily on getting to the line with 24% of their points coming from the stripe (39th nationally).  No home cooking here for the Irish along with a team that doesn’t foul and defends outstanding inside the arc means they’ll have to hit their 3’s to have a shot.  The problem is, they are making just 31% of their shots from beyond the arc this year (238th nationally) and those shaky numbers have all come at home.  Now they must try and find the range in a tough shooting venue, Madison Square Garden.   Oklahoma is a veteran team with 4 upperclassmen in the starting lineup and they are well prepared for this spot.  We think the Irish, with 3 new starters, will take some time to gel this year and we don’t expect that to happen in their first game away from home this season.  Lay the small number with Oklahoma.

ASA CBB 10* PLAY ON Rutgers +13 over Wisconsin, Monday at 8:00 PM ET

This is a tough spot for Wisconsin.  They are coming off a huge road win on Friday night @ Iowa and we have a feeling it will be tough for them to play at a peak level physically and emotionally in this game.  Rutgers is off a home loss to Michigan State on Friday night (we were on MSU) but we have to say we’ve been impressed with the Scarlet Knights early in the season.  That was a rough spot for them as they had just beaten a solid Miami FL on the road a few days earlier and were catching the Spartans off a tight loss @ Louisville.  We thought MSU would respond well and they did but Rutgers hung in until the end losing by 11 as an 8-point dog.  These are two very slow paced teams and the total is set in the 125 range so a low scoring game is expected.  With a lower number of possessions, that will make it very tough for Wisconsin to win this one going away.  On top of that, Rutgers plays outstanding defense so nothing will be easy here for the Badgers.  The Knights are allowing just 59 PPG on only 38% shooting by their opponents.  They rank 19th nationally in defensive efficiency.  This team is also very solid on the boards and were outrebounded for the first time this year on Friday night vs Michigan State (only by 5).  Third year head coach Steve Pikiell has this team headed in the right direction.  They’ve played Wisconsin very tough the last few years winning at home by 4 last year and losing in OT here at the Kohl Center 2 seasons ago.  The Badgers have a huge game on deck with state rival Marquette so this is a true sandwich type game for Wisconsin.  UW is very solid this year and they’ll win this game, we just don’t see them pulling way for a decisive victory.  Rutgers plus the points here.

ASA play OVER 210.5 Cavaliers @ Nets, 7:35PM ET - Our math model projects 216 total points and we couldn’t agree more. Let’s not forget what the rule changes have done to the NBA right now as scoring is up dramatically at 221PPG. Last year on this date the average total points scored in the league was 211. Granted these are two of the worst teams in the league but they are also two of the worst defensively. The Cavs are dead last in points allowed per 100 possessions at 1.148 while the Nets are 23rd allowing 1.116PPP. Cleveland is coming off three very low scoring games against OKC, Boston and Toronto but those are three of the best defensive teams in the league. With PG George Hill back in the lineup expect the Cavs scoring numbers to go up. Brooklyn’s home games have averaged nearly 230 total points per contest and we expect both teams to score here. Bet OVER!

ASA NFL 10* PLAY ON Pittsburgh-3 over LA Chargers, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - NFL SUNDAY NIGHT GAME OF THE YEAR

We faded Pittsburgh last week @ Denver and picked up a win with the Broncos.  The Steelers were in a terrible spot playing their 3rd road game in 4 weeks and their second of back to back on the road.  On top of that they had to come from 16 points down late in their previous game @ Jacksonville to pick up a late win.  With all that, the Steelers actually played much better than we thought they would under those circumstances.  They outgained a solid Denver team by over 200 yards but turnovers were the key in that one.  Pitt fumbled at the Denver 1-yard line, fumbled at the Denver 20-yard line, threw an interception at midfield, AND threw a pick in the endzone in the final seconds as they were going in for the tying score.  Those mistakes prevented them from winning their 7th straight game.  We expect Pittsburgh to play very well at home off that loss.  They are a perfect 6-0 ATS their last 6 games following an outright loss and 30-15 ATS long term in that situation.  Despite that loss the Steelers are at the top of their game right now.  They have outgained 7 straight opponents by a combined 1,100 yards or by an average of 157 YPG.  Since losing at home to Baltimore in late September the Steelers have won 3 straight home games by margins of 24, 15, and 31 points.  The Chargers are 4-1 on the road, however 3 of those 4 wins have come against the Bills, Browns, and Raiders.  Their lone solid road win was @ Seattle and in fact the Seahawks, who are 6-5, are the only team currently above .500 that the Chargers have beaten this year.  In fact, the only other two teams the Chargers have played this year that are currently above .500 are the Rams & Chiefs and they lost both of those games by double digits.  LA will also most likely be without one of the key offensive weapons as RB Melvin Gordon injured his knee last week and is doubtful here.  Chargers not 100% and traveling east will be a tough spot.  The Steelers have played really well at home late in the season with a 43-14 SU record with Roethlisberger under center.  We expect Pitt take out their frustrations from last week here and roll over the Chargers.

ASA NFL 10* PLAY ON Over 49 Points - Minnesota @ New England, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET

There is some value on the OVER in this game in our opinion.  Simply looking back at recent games and recent opponents you’ll see what we mean.  Last week Minnesota played Green Bay and the total was 48.  The two teams scored 21 points in the first 16:00 minutes and had 28 at half.  They both blew some opportunities in the 2nd half and it stayed UNDER.  Three weeks ago Minnesota played Detroit (who ranks 22nd in offensive efficiency) and that total was 47.5.  Now they play a New England team that ranks 7th in offensive efficiency and just 19th in defensive efficiency yet the total is very near the same as the Vikings game vs Detroit.  Now let’s look at the Patriot recent schedule.  They played Tennessee a few weeks ago who is solid defensively but ranks 27th in offensive efficiency and that total was set at 47.  Last week the Patriots game vs the Jets had a total of 46.5 despite the fact the Jets had scored just 17, 10, 6, and 10 points leading into last week’s game where they scored just 13.  Minnesota is MUCH better offensively than both of those teams yet this total is set just a few points higher.  The Vikings have scored at least 20 points in every game but one this year.  New England has put up at least 25 points in 8 of their 11 games and at home they’ve scored 27, 38, 38, 43, and 31 points.  Contributing to this low total is the fact the Pats have gone UNDER in 4 straight games and Minnesota has gone UNDER in 3 of their last 4.  Now the oddsmakers have over adjusted for BOTH of these teams and the value is on the OVER.  Rain is a possibility on Sunday in Boston, however light winds are in the forecast which is key.  Both offenses should move the ball in this one and we take the OVER.

#334 ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON California (+) over Stanford, Saturday at 3 PM ET - Stanford has dominated this series in recent years and that has resulted in some extra attention from the betting markets this week. The Cardinal have risen to as high as a 3 1/2 point favorite as of mid-day Friday and we feel we're getting excellent home dog value here. California has been the much better defense this season in comparison with Stanford. Although the Cardinal passing attack ranks the edge over the Golden Bears, the Cal pass defense is allowing nearly 100 passing yards less per game in comparison with the Stanford pass D. Though the Cardinal are off back to back wins, those victories came against UCLA and Oregon State! Prior to these B2B wins, Stanford had lost 4 of its 5 prior games and now the Cardinal take on a Cal team that has won 4 of its last 5 SU and gone 4-0-1 ATS in the process! The Bears opportunistic ways have been a recurring theme as Cal has forced a total of 13 turnovers the past 5 weeks. By comparison, Stanford has forced a total of only 3 turnovers in their last 4 games. As an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points, California is 38-22 ATS (including 7-3 ATS in recent seasons). Stanford, when off a win over Pac-12 foe, has gone 5-10-2 ATS including 0-3-1 ATS this season. Grab the points with the undervalued home dog in the annual "Big Game" between these Pac-12 rivals Saturday.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Michigan State -8 over Rutgers, Friday at 6:00 PM ET

After back to back impressive wins over UCLA by 20 and Texas by 10, the Spartans were upended in OT on Tuesday night @ Louisville.  MSU (-4.5) led with under 2:00 minutes remaining in the game but blew it and lost in OT.  Sparty dominated most of the key stats hitting 47% of their shots to just 39% for Louisville along with destroying the Cards on the boards 45 to 28.  So how did they lose?  The officials had a big say in that as they sent Louisville to the charity stripe 40 times and they outscored MSU by 16 points at the line.  Expect the Spartans to bounce back and play very well here after that loss.  They catch Rutgers coming off an upset road win @ Miami 57-54 on Wednesday.  That means the Scarlet Knights only have 48 hours before they tip off in this one while MSU has a full extra day.  It was a big win for the Knights but overall their schedule has been ultra light facing just 2 teams ranked inside the top 160 this year.  One was a win over Miami, the other a 20 point home loss to St Johns.  MSU, on the other hand, has already faced the likes of Kansas, UCLA, Louisville, and Texas this season.  Rutgers offense is stagnant at best ranking 270th in offensive efficiency and they’ve been held to 65 points or less in 4 straight games.  Facing an MSU defense that allows 37% from the field and ranks 18th in defensive efficiency we expect another poor performance from Rutgers offensively.  Sparty, on the other hand, has scored at least 78 points in every game this season.  Rutgers is going to have a tough time keeping up in this game.  The Spartans are 6-0 in this series with 5 of those 6 wins coming by double digits.  MSU off a loss is a solid play here.

ASA 10* play on: #501 Golden State +9 over Toronto Raptors, 8PM ET - Yeah, anytime you get the World Champs plus points it’s worth an immediate look. Granted, the Warriors are without Steph Curry and Draymond Green but they still have a cast of players that make them one of the best in the league. The Warriors are one of just nine teams in the NBA with a positive road differential at +1.9PPG. Sure, they have lost 5 road contests this season but those L’s came against the Spurs, Mavs, Rockets, Clippers and Denver. Toronto is good. Very good and they have a home point differential of +9.5PPG which is 4th best in the NBA BUT that has come against a schedule that is 84-106 SU overall. When the Warriors were at full strength last year in the Finals they were favored in Cleveland and now they are catching nearly double-digits in Toronto. These two teams are nearly identical in offensive efficiency but the Raptors do hold an advantage when it comes to DEFF but Golden State has played the tougher schedule. Don’t be fooled by the Raptors last three home wins which came against 7-13 Miami, 8-13 Washington and 7-16 Knicks. This is a whole different level of team in Golden State who can easily win this outright. Our last point is this, the Raptors were favored by 12 and 10 points against the Heat and Wizards and they are laying a similar number here? This will be close!

ASA 10* play on: #716 New Orleans Pelicans -6 over Washington Wizards, 8PM ET - Several factors favor the Pelicans here including revenge as these same two teams squared off in Washington on Saturday with the Wiz winning by 10. A big key to that win though was the absence of Anthony Davis for the Pelicans. It’s extremely hard to replace his 27PPG and 12.8RPG as he’s clearly one of the elite players in the entire NBA. Davis and the Pels have lost 4 straight games, 3 on the road and most recently at home to the Celtics, so expect a concentrated effort by the Pelicans at home tonight. New Orleans is 8-2 SU at home this season with an average point differential of +4.9PPG while 4 of their last five home wins have been decided by double-digits. Washington has been horrendous on the road this year with a 2-7 SU record and an average differential of minus -12.1PPG which is 3rd worst in the NBA. What makes matters worse for the Wizards is that only three of those 9 road games were at playoff teams from a year ago. In their road games against comparable opponents the Wiz have been blown out this season and with their chemistry at an all time low, we don’t expect a great effort here.

ASA CBB 10* PLAY ON Wisconsin -8 over NC State, Tuesday at 9:00 PM ET on ESPN2

NC State comes into Madison with a perfect 6-0 record, however to say they have taken it easy in their early season schedule would be putting gin mildly.  This team has played the EASIEST schedule in Division 1 college basketball thus far (SOS ranked 353rd).  They have played all 6 games at home and their opponents have been Mount St Mary’s, Maryland Eastern Shore, UNC Ashville, Maine, St Peter’s, and Mercer.  Four of those six opponents are ranked below 300 and the best team they’ve played, Mercer, is ranked 175th.  That game was on Saturday and went to the wire with NC State holding on for a 78-74 win.  Wisconsin will be much more prepared for this caliber of opponent.  They have already beaten Xavier (on the road), Oklahoma (neutral site), Stanford (neutral site) with their lone loss coming by 7 points at the hands of #3 Virginia on a neutral court.  Despite their tough schedule the Badger’s wins have all been fairly convincing with their closest coming by 9 points @ Xavier.  They topped Oklahoma by 20 & Stanford by 16.  Wisconsin’s defense has been outstanding ranking 7th in nationally in adjusted efficiency.  They have allowed less than 60 points in 4 of their 6 games.  They’ll make it very tough on an NC State offense that has put up lots of points (90 PPG) but hasn’t played a defense ranked inside the top 171 in efficiency.  Offensively the Badgers have shot the ball very well from deep (42% from beyond the arc) and with the top post presence in the country inside in Ethan Happ, they are tough to defend.  They rank 19th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency.  NC State has not faced an offense ranked higher than 180 and 4 of the 6 offenses they’ve faced are ranked 336th or lower which means the bottom 17 in all of college basketball.  UW has been home from their Bahamas tourney since Friday night so they’ve had plenty of time to rest and get ready for this one.  As we mentioned the Wolfpack are playing their first road game of the season and they are a putrid 7-20 ATS their last 27 away from home.  The trend continues on Tuesday and the Badgers roll up a double digit win at home.

ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON Over the Total - Pittsburgh @ Winnipeg, Tuesday at 8:05 PM ET

The Penguins recently got Sidney Crosby back. The Jets, thanks to a red hot Patrik Laine (as well as his entire line being on fire), are also "fully loaded" when it comes to potency in terms of goal-scoring. Ever since Winnipeg had the two game series with Florida in Laine's native Finland to begin this month, the Jets have been a different team. 8 of Winnipeg's 10 games this month have totaled at least 6 goals. The Jets are scoring an average of 3.9 goals per game this month. Winnipeg has given up 4.3 goals per game their last 4 games. The Penguins have scored 4 or more goals in 4 of their last 5 games. Pittsburgh has allowed an average of 4 goals per game in its last 3 road games. The over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings between the Penguins and Jets including 4 of the last 5 played in Winnipeg! These are two of the top power play teams in the league as Pittsburgh is converting on 25% of their power play opportunities and Winnipeg is converting at a 30.4% rate with the man advantage this season! Also, on the road the Penguins are 38% and at home the Jets are 39%. These are phenomenal numbers and Winnipeg had the best home record in the NHL last season and Pittsburgh has had multiple Stanley Cup championships in recent seasons. This one should be quite the battle of firepower with the lamps being lit early and often in this one! Take the OVER tonight.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON - Under 138.5 Points - Memphis vs College of Charleston, Sunday at 6:30 PM ET

Two bad shooting teams lead to an UNDER play in this game.  Memphis ranks 275th nationally in eFG% (46.6%) while Charleston ranks 221st (49%).  Worse yet, these are two of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the nation which will make it very tough to get to this total.  The Tigers make just 26% of their 3’s (332nd nationally) and C of C makes only 24% (339th nationally).  Memphis likes to play fast if they can however the Cougars are one of the slowest paced teams in the nation and when that is the case the slow team usually gets the tempo they want.  Since their first two games vs inferior opponents, Charleston has cashed 4 straight UNDERS and they have not topped 128 points in any of those games.  Memphis has had a few higher scoring games this year, however those we versus teams that shoot the ball very well (LSU & Oklahoma State) and like to play fast as well.  The Tigers most recent game on Friday against Canisius was 71-63 and we look for similar result here.  This game is on a neutral site in Orlando and each team will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days here which won’t help their shooting woes.  Take the UNDER here. 

ASA 10* PLAY ON Denver +3 over Pittsburgh, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - AFC GAME OF THE MONTH

Bad spot for the Steelers playing their 3rd road game in 4 weeks and coming off a come from behind win last week.  They trailed 16-0 @ Jacksonville late in the 3rd quarter and pulled a dramatic comeback scoring in the final seconds to win 20-16.  That was a huge double revenge game for them after losing @ Jacksonville in the regular season last year and then losing at home to the Jags in the playoffs.  Now they have to take another long trip west which will be tough off a win they really wanted.  Denver has some momentum coming off an upset win @ LA Chargers last week.  Despite their overall record of 4-6, the Broncos have outgained their opponents on a YPP basis and have played one of the toughest schedules in the NFL already having faced KC (twice), LA Chargers, LA Rams, Houston, Baltimore, and Seattle.  They don’t have a great home record (2-3 in Denver) but their losses have come by 4 points to KC, 3 points to Rams, and 2 points to Houston.  The Broncos have been a fantastic home underdog over the long haul with a 30-16 ATS record since 1980.  On top of that, Pitt has had very little success as a road favorite on the west coast going just 2-12 ATS when favored on the road vs AFC West opponents.  These two teams have met 6 times since 2007 with the home team winning 5 of those games.  We see that happening again with Denver pulling the upset.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Carolina -3 over Seattle, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - NFC GAME OF THE WEEK

We like the value here with Carolina at home coming off 2 road losses.  The Panthers need this win as they’ve dropped to 6-4 after losing @ Pittsburgh & @ Detroit.  Laying only a FG is definite value in our opinion.  These two both just played @ Detroit with in the last few weeks and while Seattle was +3 in Detroit, the Panthers were -4.  Seattle’s most recent two road games they were +10 @ Rams and +3 @ Detroit as mentioned above.  That tells us Carolina should definitely be laying a bigger number here but off 2 losses it’s lower than it should be.  The Panthers have outgained 5 of their last 6 opponents and they are much better at home than they have been on the road this year.  They are 5-0 at home this year averaging 32 PPG while averaging only 20 PPG on the road.  Four of their five home wins have come by at least 8 points.  Cam Newton has been much better at home as well completing 67% of his passes with 8 TD’s and just 2 interceptions.  Seattle will be on the road for the 4th time in 6 games and their road wins have come against lower tier NFL teams (Arizona, Oakland, and Detroit).  When they’ve had to play better teams away from  home, they’ve lost.  These two have met 5 times since the start of the 2014 season with the home team covering 4 of those.  We expect another home team win and cover on Sunday.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Colorado -4.5 over Air Force, Saturday at 6:00 PM ET

The Buffs are coming off a 70-64 road loss @ San Diego on Tuesday (we were on San Diego -4) and have had a few days to recoup for this trip.  It’s definitely not a tough travel spot for CU as Air Force is just 97 miles away.  In their loss @ USD on Tuesday, the Buffs played fairly well against an experienced team that had 20 wins a year ago.  CU led by 1 late in the game but were unable to hold on.  Turnovers and rebounding were a problem in that game as we thought they might be.  However, today they play an Air Force team that was just 12-19 last year and has started this season 2-3.  The Falcons are not a great rebounding team (245th nationally in offensive rebounding) and they do not create turnovers (17% forced TO rate which is 252nd nationally) so those aspects shouldn’t be a problem today for Colorado.  AF has not played a team ranked in the top 150 yet this season and even so they have 3 losses (vs High Points, UMBC, and Texas State).  Despite their easy schedule to date, they’ve turned the ball over at an alarming rate (26.5% which is 347th nationally) and they are not an efficient offense (272nd nationally).  Despite their loss @ San Diego, Colorado coach Tad Boyle was very pleased with his team’s defense as they allowed the Toreros to make just 37% of their shots.  They should be able to shut down this struggling AF offense who is averaging just 63 PPG vs teams not named Johnson & Wales (yes they played that team and that is one of AF’s win).  Colorado won this meeting by 12 last and has won 8 straight in this series (all but 1 by at least 7 points).  Colorado gets the cover on the road here.

#170 ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON Wisconsin (-) over Minnesota, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - We really like this spot for Wisconsin. They are coming off a rejuvenating, come from behind win @ Purdue last week and it looks like QB Jack Coan finally found his stride. It was his 3rd start and in his first 2 the play calling was very conservative. We liked the way the game was called offensively much better last week as the passing game became a threat. That passing game should be wide open this week vs the Gophers as Wisconsin’s running game should be very effective. The Badgers lead the Big Ten in rushing and 4th nationally at 277 YPG. UW gashed Purdue for well over 300 yards rushing last week which opened up the passing game. Same scenario this week. They are facing a Minnesota defense that has allowed over 300 YPG rushing on the road this year including 430 yards by Illinois in their most recent road tilt. The Gophs are the youngest team in the nation (53% of their roster are freshmen) and because of that they’ve been solid at home but terrible on the road. They are 0-4 in road games allowing 45 PPG. Minnesota had a great shot at their 6th win last week at home vs a Northwestern team that had already clinched the Big Ten West and had nothing to play for. Even with that, the Cats won by 10. We have a strong feeling that Minnesota knows that was their chance to get to bowl eligible and will have a tough time in this game. Wisconsin has won this meeting 14 straight seasons and the coaches and players are stressing this week they do not want to be the team to blow that streak. The last 8 Badger wins in this series have come by double digits and in their home finale they will be sky high. Another double digit win for Wisconsin and this one could get ugly if they get up early which we think they will.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Old Dominion -6.5 over Northern Iowa, Friday at 7:00 PM ET

These two just played on Monday so we get a quick revenge spot for ODU.  They faced off in St Thomas Virgin Islands just 5 days ago and UNI pulled off the 54-53 win as a 2.5 point underdog.  The Monarchs had a nightmare offensive performance in that game making only 32% of their shots including 7 of 24 from beyond the arc.  ODU controlled the boards with 13 offensive rebounds (just 2 for UNI) and because that they attempted 61 shots to just 49 for the Panthers.  Because they shot so poorly it didn’t matter.  However, now they are at home for the first time since November 6th and we expect a much better offensive game from the Monarchs.  They should control the boards again and this team those extra opportunities will turn into points.  We also don’t expect Northern Iowa to make 11 of their 25 shots from beyond the arc (44%) as they did in that first game.  All of that and UNI still only won by a single point.  ODU has struggled shooting but they’ve been on the road for all but one game.  Their defense has been a constant allowing only one of their five opponents to top 56 points.  This team returns 4 of their top 7 players from a team that was 25-7 a year ago.  They’ve won 15 of their last 17 home games and will be extra motivated here in this quick revenge spot.  Northern Iowa played in the Virgin Islands on Friday, Saturday, and Monday just as ODU did, however they are back on the road again in a tough scheduling spot.  They have also won just ONCE in their last 13 true road games.  Lay it as Old Dominion rolls.

ASA NFL 10* PLAY ON Detroit +3..5 over Chicago, Thursday at 12:30 PM ET

Brutal spot here for Chicago.  They were flexed into the Sunday night game against division rival Minnesota and now must play a Thursday morning game on the road.  Thursday road teams are 2-9 SU this year because of the tough travel and short week and this game is even magnified more for Chicago based the late Sunday start and the A.M. Thursday start.  The Bears might be without QB Trubisky in this game as he injured his throwing shoulder vs Minnesota.  If he doesn’t play it will be Chase Daniel at QB.  We would probably rather have Trubisky play with a bum shoulder as he’s struggled this year on the road anyway.  His home numbers are far superior to his road numbers (16 TD’s at home and just 4 on the road.  Chicago has had an easy road slate facing Buffalo, Arizona, Miami, and Green Bay and they are just 2-2.  They barely beat Arizona on the road and their big win @ Buffalo was very deceiving as they only had 190 total yards but the Bills were a turnover machine in that game.  Detroit has been solid at home beating the Patriots, Packers, and Panthers here.  All 3 of those teams have beaten Chicago this year for what it’s worth.  After struggling on the road earlier this month Detroit has some momentum coming off their Sunday win here vs Carolina.  They also should be extra motivated after losing @ Chicago just 2 weeks ago.  That was just the 2nd time in the last 11 meetings that the Bears were able to beat Detroit.  So terrible spot for Chicago, coming off huge home win over Minnesota, now with a 1.5 game lead in division, we think they struggle here and Detroit gets the win.

ASA CBB 10* PLAY ON San Diego -4 over Colorado, Tuesday at 10:00 PM ET on ESPNU

This is a huge prime time game for USD on a stage they normally don’t get.  This is a home game vs a Pac 12 team and the game is on ESPNU.  Those factors alone should bring a top notch effort and performance from the Toreros.  That is obviously not the only reason we like San Diego here.  First of all they are a very experienced team with 3 seniors and 1 junior in the starting lineup.  All 4 were key performers on last year’s 20 win team.  The Toreros are the 6th most experienced team in the nation so not only the starters but all rotation players as well have been together for a number of years.  They come into this game with a 3-1 record and their only loss coming by just 3 points @ Washington, who was picked by some to win the Pac 12 this year and no worse than 3rd in that league by most experts.  It was a game that San Diego led by 9 in the second half when leading scorer Isaiah Pineiro (20 PPG) got into foul trouble and had to sit out 10+ minutes giving the Huskies an opportunity to make a run.  While USD is playing their 5th game of the season, Colorado has only played twice this year vs weak competition.  Their most recent game they were favored by 17 vs Nebraska Omaha at home and struggled to win by just 4 points.  The Buffs are on the road for the first time this year and they have not been a money maker away from home going just 18-40-1 ATS their last 59 road games.  They were just 1-10 SU in true road games last season.  The Buffs also must replace 3 of their top 6 scorers from a year ago.  San Diego beat Colorado on the road last year 69-59 and basically bring back the same team so we expect a similar outcome tonight.

ASA 10* play on: UNDER 220.5 Portland Trailblazers @ NY Knicks, 7:30PM ET - Some solid indicators here with the money and tickets chasing the Over, yet the line dipped 2 full points from the opener. Based on the pace of play, offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency numbers this game should result in 215 total points. Portland is average in pace of play or 15th in the NBA at 100.4 possessions per game. New York is slower yet at 100 possessions per game which will continue to trend lower with Coach Fizdale running the show. Portland is one of the best DEFF teams in the league while the Knicks are one of the worst. The same can be said about the OEFF numbers as Portland is top 10 in the league, Knicks bottom 10. New York shoots under 43% at home this year and averages 106PPG. Portland has a much bigger game tomorrow night against the Bucks and won’t be interested in playing an up-and-down game tonight and look to rest starters as much as possible. Last year when these two teams met they combined for 198 and 194 total points. The bet here is UNDER!

ASA play on: #517 Oklahoma City Thunder -2.5 @ Sacramento Kings, 10:00 PM ET - We like the situation, the number and everything else that goes into for a play on the Thunder tonight. The Sacramento Kings are one of the four to five worst teams in the NBA and not much better than Phoenix. The reason we bring that up is the fact that the Thunder just played in Phoenix and were favored by -5 points. The Kings also recently faced Minnesota at home and were a +2-point underdog and the Thunder are better than the dysfunctional T’Wolves. The big advantage the Thunder have here is defensively. OKC is the 3rd most efficient defense in the NBA while the Kings are 21st worst. The Thunder also hold an advantage when it come to offensive efficiency. After losing four straight games to start the season, the Thunder have quietly won 10 of their last eleven games. They also have the 6th best margin of victory in the NBA at plus +5.4PPG. Conversely, the Kings are 8-8 SU on the season with a negative differential of minus -2.6PPG. Yes, the Thunder have the Warriors on deck but they won’t look past a Kings team that embarrassed them earlier this season 131-120. With or without Westbrook we take the road team here by double-digits.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Over 62.5 Points - Kansas City @ LA Rams, Monday at 8:15 PM ET

We realize this is a very high total (highest ever) but we think the OVER is the play here.  We like both teams to get into the 30’s tonight.  KC has scored at least 30 in 8 of their 10 games while the LA Rams have done the same.  The Chiefs and their opponents have scored at least 55 points in 6 of their 10 games this year.  The Rams and their opponents have scored at least 56 points in 6 of their 10 games.  These two teams lead the NFL in yards per play offense averaging a ridiculous 6.9 YPP.  KC has played 2 of the top 8 YPP offenses this year and those games resulted in 79 points (vs Pitt) and 66 points (vs Chargers).  The Rams have played 3 of the top 8 YPP offense this year and those games have resulted in 90 points (vs Saints), 58 points (vs Chargers), and 58 points (vs Packers).  Defensively neither of these teams are very good.  They both rank in the bottom 10 in the NFL allowing 6.0 YPP.   Most might be tempted to lean under where the total is set so high but historically that has been a losing proposition.  In fact, since 2000 there have been 12 games with a total of 58 or higher and the OVER is 9-2-1 in those games.  The last two seasons there have been 3 games that have had a total of 58 or higher and the OVER cashed on all 3 of those.  Both teams push into the 30’s here and this one goes OVER.       

ASA 10* PLAY ON Minnesota +2.5 over Chicago, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET

The Bears have turned things around in Chicago and have the local fan base excited for the first time in years. The Vikings were the team to beat in the NFC North this year but got off to a rocky 1-2-1 start to the season so everyone wrote them off. But now the Vikings have righted the Ship so to speak with a 4-1 SU run their last five games. The only loss in that stretch was to the Saints who are the best team in football right now. In the loss to the Saints though the Vikings out-played, out-gained the Saints by over 150 total yards but two huge turnovers turned the tide in that game. On the road this season the Vikings have just one loss at the LA Rams and a tie in Green Bay. Chicago is a public team right now and the line reflects it. They have won three straight games but look who they’ve beaten. Detroit, Buffalo and the Jets who have a combined 9-20 SU record on the season and might be the three worst teams in the NFL. These teams have nearly identical offensive yards per play numbers and overall statistics but the Vikings have played a tougher schedule to this point. Consider this, the Bears were favored by 3-points at home in late September against Tampa Bay and now are laying the same in a huge NFC North showdown against a much better Minnesota team. Last year here the Vikings were favored by -3.5 points. Easy call with the Dog!

ASA 10* TOP PLAY Over the total – Iowa State @ Texas, Saturday at 8:00 PM ET - This total is well too low in our opinion. We had it projected in the mid 50’s and we’re getting a full TD+ less than that here. Part of the reason for the low number might be the recent history between these teams which has been low scoring. However, keep in mind neither of these coaches have been at the school very long (Herman in his 2nd year @ Texas & Campbell in his 3rd year @ ISU) so those historical numbers aren’t as important in our analysis. Last year Texas won this match up 17-7 and the year before it was Texas 27-6. Those totals were set at 62 & 69 respectively and now this one sits below 50 because of those two results. The ISU offense is much improved this year while the Texas defense is down allowing 420 YPG. We see no way that UT shuts down the Cyclone offense that has scored 48, 30, 40, 27, and 28 points their last 5 games. The Longhorn defense has allowed at least 34 points in 4 of their last 5 games. The Longhorn defense did shut down TCU & KSU to 16 & 14 points respectively in their first two conference games but those are the 2 of the 3 worst offenses in the Big 12 in scoring offense with the other being Kansas who Texas plays next weekend. Even with the poor offenses in play in those two games, the totals were BOTH set higher than this on (48.5 & 50). Herman has his offense humming in his 2nd year as head coach. They have scored at least 28 points in all but 2 games this year. They play fast averaging 76 plays per game which is 16th nationally. They are a tough offense to defend as they are very balanced. Iowa State’s overall defensive numbers are off in our mind. They played very well against weak offenses this year (Kansas & TCU) and have one outlier game where they shut down WVU’s offense to 14 points. That is not the norm for this team. It was just one of those games in our opinion. Last week it may look like they played great defensively holding a middle of the pack Baylor offense to just 14 points. Take a closer look. The Bears had over 500 yards of total offense but missed 2 FG’s and were shut out on downs twice inside the ISU 15-yard line. That 28-14 final was very misleading as Baylor potentially left 20+ points off the board in that game. Even with that those two got to 42 points which isn’t far off this posted total. Offensively, ISU struggled early in the year but since switching to Brock Purdy at QB in early October. In his 5 starts the Cyclones are averaging 34 PPG and have not been held under 27 in any of those games. We also like the fact that ISU tends to play how their opponent plays. They can play fast or slow. They were in grinder, low-scoring games TCU & Kansas but vs teams that are similar in style to Texas (Okla St, Texas Tech, & Oklahoma) they were involved in high scoring games (90, 71, and 64 points scored respectively). In games they can get a lead and grind the offense they do that. In games where they have trouble slowing down the other team, which we feel they will here, they have to score to keep up and they do just that. We don’t see either defense slowing down the opposing offense in this game. Both teams have been quite efficient on a yards per point basis with Texas averaging 12.9 & ISU 13.7. The weather looks perfect in Austin with temps in the mid 60’s and light wins in the forecast at gametime. This one goes OVER this total easily.

#326 ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON Purdue (-) over Wisconsin, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - This one sets up very nicely for the Boilers. They are playing their final home game and need this win to become bowl eligible (currently a 5-5 record). If they don’t get this game they have to go on the road next week to arch rival Indiana and try to get a win in order to qualify for the post-season. Purdue has been up one week, down the next for a full month now. They throttled Ohio State 49-20 here then followed that up with a stinker @ Michigan State the next week. They came back home after that loss and beat a very good Iowa team and then got creamed @ Minnesota. Now back at home after that embarrassing performance (their worst of the season) we would look for a very good game out of the Boilers. This team has beaten 3 straight ranked teams at home (BC, Ohio State, and Iowa) and now they face a Wisconsin team that is absolutely trending downward. The Badgers are already bowl eligible, they are coming off a huge game @ Penn State (a 22-10 loss), and they have their biggest rivalry game vs Minnesota next Saturday. We expect back up QB Jack Coan to be under center again this week although that has not been finalized and probably won’t be until gametime. Starter Alex Hornibrook is in concussion protocol and didn’t play last Saturday after suffering his 2nd concussion in 3 weeks vs Rutgers. We anticipate the UW coaching staff to be ultra conservative with Hornibrook moving forward due to his 2 concussions and the fact they are bowl eligible but out of the Big Ten West race. If either play, we still like Purdue. Coan simply doesn’t have enough experience and they have been very conservative offensively because of that. Even down 12 in the fourth quarter last week the play calling was not wide open to say the least. In the two games that Coan has started the Badgers have scored 17 & 10 points. He has thrown for 158 yards and 60 yards in those two games. That makes the offense one-dimensional and the Purdue defense will load the box to stop the run. It’s a Purdue defense that was gashed on the ground by Minnesota last week in their letdown spot but had been playing quite well vs the run leading into that game. If you take out last week’s debacle @ Minnesota, the Boilermaker rush defense is allowing 132 YPG in league play which would be good for 4th best. The weak spot of Purdue’s defense is their pass defense allowing 278 YPG however Wisconsin is not a team that will be able to take advantage of that. The Badger defense is WAY down compared to previous years. They are very young on the back end and their top run stuffer, Olive Sagapolo, is out. After allowing less than 100 YPG rushing in each of the last 3 season, the Badger stop unit is giving up 175 YPG on the ground this season. Purdue’s offense is balanced and potent and they put points on the board (4th in the Big Ten averaging 32 PPG – conference games). They look even more impressive when playing at home as they’ve scored 37, 30, 49, and 38 points their last 4 at Ross Ade Stadium. The Wisconsin defense isn’t playing well enough to stop Purdue and their offense isn’t playing well enough to keep up. Add in the motivation factors discussed above and Purdue rolls in this one.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Seattle -3 over Green Bay, Thursday at 8:20 PM ET

This is a REALLY tough spot for the Packers.  It’s their third road game in the last four week and long travel on a short week.  Not only have they been on the road a lot as of late, it’s been long travel.  They went to the west coast vs Rams, then east coast vs Patriots the next week, then home vs Miami, how west coast against on a short week.  That is as tough a schedule as you could map out.  Seattle is at home where they are playing just their 4th game this season.  They are 1-2 here at home but their losses were both close vs Rams and Chargers, two of the best teams in the NFL.  Seattle played toe to toe with the Rams on the road last week losing 36-31.  Seattle ran for 273 yards vs the Rams and LOST!  Speaking of that we expect Seattle to dominate the rushing game tonight as they lead the league in rushing at 152 YPG while GB allows 121 YPG (22nd in NFL).  That should open things up for Russell Wilson and the passing game.  Wilson has had a fantastic year completing 66% of his passes for an average of 7.96 yards per pass and 21 TD’s.  It could be argued Wilson is having a better year than Aaron Rodgers who’s completing just 60% of his passes for 7.32 yards per pass and 17 TD’s.  On the road, where GB is 0-4, Rodgers has completed under 60% of his passes with a QB rating of 98 (Wilson has rating of 110 this season).  Because of the short week travel situation, road teams can struggle on Thursday nights.  They are just 2-8 SU this year.  GB is in an even more drastic travel spot because of previous weeks.  Seattle has a solid defense and should be able to move the ball very well as discussed above.  The Pack will hang around for awhile but we like Seattle to wear them down and win this one by a TD or more. 

ASA 10* PLAY ON Green Bay -10 over Miami, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET

This is an absolute must win for the Packers.  They now sit with a 3-4-1 record after losses @ Rams and @ Patriots.  They take the road again the next two weeks going to Seattle and Minnesota so a loss here might just end their playoff hopes.  The last two weeks Green Bay played quite well on the road vs two of the best teams & best offenses in the NFL.  They lost @ Rams 29-27 and @ Pats 31-17.  The New England game was closer than the final as GB actually had the ball deep in Patriot territory with the game tied at 17-17 when an Aaron Jones fumble changed the entire game.  Now after facing two of the most prolific offenses in the NFL, we look for the Packer defense to play much better against an anemic Miami offense.  The Fins rank 28th in the NFL in total offense averaging only 315 YPG.  Last week in their 13-6 win at home vs the Jets, the Dolphins tallied only 168 TOTAL yards and just 7 first downs.  They did not score an offensive TD.  With journeyman back up Brock Osweiler still under center we think they’ll struggle again this week vs a Packer defense that is under rated in our opinion.  The rank middle of the pack in most key categories which is better than most would think.  Aaron Rodgers should have a field day against a Miami defense that ranks near the bottom of the NFL in pass defense, sack percentage, and sacks per game.  Prior to last week’s game vs the hapless Jets offense, this Dolphin defense had allowed 38, 27, 28, 32, and 42 points their previous 5 games.  The Fins are 5-4 but have a negative point differential and have been outgained 7 of their last 8 games.  All of Miami’s wins have come by a single score while their losses have come by 10, 11, 19, and 31 points.  Miami has been a terrible road team winning just 1 of their last 9 road games with losses coming by 40, 31, 24, 19, 18, 16, 10, and 8 points.  The high temp in Green Bay Sunday will be in the low 30’s which is not ideal for a warm weather team.  We think the Packers roll over Miami on Sunday winning by 2+ TD’s. 

ASA 10* PLAY ON Detroit +7.5 over Chicago, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - NFC NORTH GAME OF THE MONTH

Bears won @ hapless Buffalo last week 41-9 and a simple glance at the score did not tell the whole story.  Chicago had 190 TOTAL yards!  That’s it.  They scored 41 points with less than 200 yards of total offense.  Two defensive TD’s by Chicago in that game and 4 Buffalo turnovers made the difference.  The Bills actually outgained Chicago by 75 yards.  Detroit comes in a bit desperate after losing 24-9 @ Minnesota last week.  The Vikings were extra motivated in that one after outplaying the Saints on the stat sheet a week earlier but still losing at home.  The Detroit defense played well holding Minnesota to just 285 total yards and a defensive TD by the Vikes made this one look worse than it was.  This has been a tight series with 10 of the last 12 meetings decided by single digits.  The Lions have actually won 9 of the last 10 meetings and this is the first time Chicago has been favored in this series since 2012.  Detroit is 3-5 on the season however their 3 wins (Packers, Patriots, Dolphins) have all come against teams that beat Chicago this year.  On the flip side the Bears are 5-3 but 4 of their wins have come against the lower end of the NFL (Arizona, Buffalo, NY Jets, Tampa).  Their lone solid win was @ home vs Seattle but that was way back in mid September.  Detroit was +4.5 @ Minnesota last week and now they’re getting a full TD @ Chicago?  Matt Stafford is getting a full TD from Mitch Trubisky?  We’ll take it.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Florida State (+) over Notre Dame, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #215

Notre Dame QB Ian Book is now listed as OUT for this match-up. This is a BIG loss for the Fighting Irish as he was the starter over Brandon Winbush for good reason! The fact is that Winbush has great running ability but he struggles as a passer and is known for making costly mistakes. That sets this one up very well for a big play on the large underdog. Florida State has a solid rushing defense and has allowed just 2.6 yards per game and 102.6 yards per game on the ground their last 6 games! That said, Notre Dame's offense could really struggle to move the ball in this game. The Seminoles have, of course, had a very disappointing season but that makes this a fantastic opportunity for them that will bring out the best in a roster that is still loaded with plenty of talent. Florida State still needs two more wins for bowl eligibility and this match-up at Notre Dame is just one of three remaining games. While an outright upset may be asking a lot, the Seminoles are absolutely relishing the idea of a chance to end the unbeaten season that Notre Dame has enjoyed to this point. These teams, in their recent meetings, have a knack for playing tight games decided by a single score and that is what our math model is forecasting for this game as well. Florida State has won the last 3 meetings. Although FSU is off an ugly loss at NC State, the Noles actually won the yardage battle in that game so the final score was deceiving. Notre Dame is 1-8 ATS in home games where they are favored by more than 7 points! This certainly has not been a good role for them and the Fighting Irish are already 0-3 in that role this season as they did not come anywhere close to covering versus Ball State, Vanderbilt, and Pittsburgh in this role this season! The Seminoles are 9-2 ATS (and 11-1 SU) in their last dozen non-conference games! Notre Dame is 1-7 ATS in November games the past two seasons! We expect those late season struggles at the betting window to continue here for the Fighting Irish. Grab the points with Florida State as an undervalued big road underdog Saturday evening.

Play on: #708 Golden State Warriors -5.5 over Milwaukee Bucks, 10:30PM ET – Yes, we love and respect what the Bucks have done this year and feel they are a legitimate contender in the East BUT only Boston (because of their depth) has the slightest chance to beat Golden State this year in the Finals. Milwaukee has gotten off to a great start but recently have lost their last two road games at Boston and at Portland.  They had played a pretty soft schedule prior to that with road wins over Charlotte and Minnesota. Golden State is well, Golden State and this is a statement game for them at home against the upstart Bucks and Giannis. The Warriors are incredibly deep and won’t miss a beat without Draymond Green tonight. GST has the 2nd best home differential in the NBA this year at +15.5PPG which is slightly higher than their last four year average of +13.4PPG. Let’s consider these numbers. The Warriors were favored by -11.5 and -12.5 in two home games of the Finals last year against the Cavs. Last regular season they were favored by -4 points against this same Bucks team and were resting Curry and Thompson! In regular season games last season against the three other best teams in the East the Warriors were 11-point chalks against Boston, -12.5 versus Toronto and -13.5 against Philly. The value on this is just too good to pass up. Play the Warriors who are 11-4 ATS at home when favored by 6 or less points since 2014. 

ASA 10* PLAY ON Denver (pick-em) over Houston, Sunday at 4:00 PMET - AFC GAME OF THE MONTH

Hmmm?  We have a Houston team that has won 5 straight games vs a Denver team that has lost 4 of their last 5 yet the Broncos are favored.  Denver is coming off a 30-23 loss last week @ KC but they outplayed the red hot Chiefs in that game.  The Broncos outgained the Chiefs by 70+ yards in the game and outrushed them 189 to 49.  They’ve played KC to the wire twice this year losing by 4 and 7 points.  Denver is 3-5 on the year but 4 of those losses came to KC (twice), LA Rams, and @ Baltimore.  The Broncos are much better than their record and are now backed into a corner in a must win spot at home.  Houston is on a nice run but their wins have come against Miami, Buffalo, Jacksonville, Dallas and Indy with two of those games going to OT.   The home team should  have a big edge in the trenches here as Houston’s offensive line rates as one of the worst in the NFL (23rd in efficiency by Football Outsiders).  They will be facing a Denver defensive front that averages 3 sacks per game (5th in the NFL) with a sack percentage of 8% (also 5th in the NFL).  That will be a problem for a banged up Deshaun Watson who’s already been hit more than any other QB in the league.  By contrast, Denver’s offensive line ranks 4th in the NFL in efficiency and #1 in the league in run blocking.  That’s a good reason why the Broncos average 134 YPG on the ground.  The Broncos have played the MUCH tougher schedule to date (6th most difficult compared to Houston’s 32nd ranked strength of schedule) and despite their records (Denver is 3-5 & Houston is 5-3) we feel the Broncos are the better team, in a must win spot, and at home.  Football Outsiders efficiency ratings agree with us as they have Denver ranked as the 7th best team in the NFL and Houston ranked 12th.  Lay the small number with Denver. 

ASA 10* PLAY ON Tampa Bay +7 over Carolina, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - NFC SOUTH GAME OF THE MONTH

We expect Tampa to play much better now that they’ve decided on Ryan Fitzpatrick as their starting QB.  Why they went away from him when Jameis Winston came back in a mystery to us.  Fitzpatrick has his teammates trust and confidence and he just happens to be the highest rated QB in the league at 119.3.  Yes higher than Brady, Brees, Rodgers, Mahomes, and Goff.  Now we’re not saying Fitzpatrick is better than those signal callers but he is having a very good season.  Last week he entered the game late @ Cincinnati late in the 3rd quarter with his team down 34-16.  He rallied the Bucs to a 34-34 tie but lost on a last second FG.  The team looked rejuvenated with him under center and we expect them to play very well this weekend.   Carolina is off a 36-21 home win over Baltimore.  They played very well but were an underdog in that game.  Now they are laying nearly a full TD and we simply don’t trust Cam Newton in this role.  This has been a tightly contested series with 3 of the last 4 meetings decided by a FG or less.  The dog has covered 4 straight in this NFC South battle and 3 of Tampa’s 4 losses have come by 5 points or fewer.  The Bucs are better than their 3-4 record as they are actually outgaining their opponents by 52 YPG (Carolina is just +15 YPG on the season).  With Fitzpatrick back at the helm, this team will score points.  We don’t see the Panthers being able to pull away in this game and we give the Bucs a solid shot at the upset.  Take the points.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Michigan Wolverines (-) over Penn State Nittany Lions, Saturday at 3:45 PM ET: Game #406

The Wolverines are out for revenge in a big way at The Big House Saturday! Heading into last year's match-up in Happy Valley at Penn State, Michigan had rolled to 3 straight wins (and 3-0 ATS) in their last 3 meetings with the Nittany Lions. Then, inexplicably last season, the Wolverines got rolled by 4 TD's in last season's match-up. The set up for this season's rematch is perfect for Michigan. Big Blue is off their bye week and they have lowly Rutgers up next. In other words, full focus and attention is on Penn State here. When you look at points allowed this season the Nittany Lions 22.2 points allowed doesn't look too bad in comparison with Michigan's 14.4 points allowed per game. However, there is a huge difference between the level of play on defense in comparing these two teams. The Wolverines have allowed an average of 220 yards per game on the season! That ranks Michigan as the #1 defense in the nation! As for Penn State, they've allowed an average of 424.4 yards per game their last 5 games. This stretch included losses to Ohio State and Michigan State as well as unimpressive (and somewhat fortunate) wins over Indiana and Iowa. Penn State, simply put, is "on the fade" right now and Michigan is on an entirely different level. The Wolverines have won 7 straight games and they've already begun their "revenge season" as they look to get payback for every single Big Ten loss from last season. The Wolverines already beat Wisconsin and Michigan State by an average margin of 19.5 points per game. Now they get revenge against Penn State and then part four of the "revenge season" beckons them in the regular season finale at Ohio State. As a home favorite in Big Ten games, Michigan is already 3-0 ATS this season. Penn State is an ugly 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games and Nittany Lions QB Trace McSorley was roughed up by the Hawkeyes last week and in the 2nd half was wearing a bulky knee brace. He is not going to have any fun this week either, whether 100% or not, as he goes up against the #1 defense in the nation. Look for a home blowout revenge win in this Saturday afternoon Big Ten match-up.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New Jersey Devils Money Line (+) over Tampa Bay Lightning, Tuesday at 7:35 PM ET

Perfect situation for a very hungry road dog. The Devils had won 3 straight regular season games over the Lightning entering the post-season last spring. The Bolts got their revenge in the first round of the playoffs as they took the series 4 games to 1. Now it is New Jersey seeking revenge and this spot is ideal for them to get it. While key D-man Victor Hedman is definitely out today and key left-winger Ondrej Palat is also likely to miss for the Lightning, the Devils are actually getting healthier. A number of New Jersey players are now getting healthy and goalie Cory Schneider is back from injury which is great news for the Devils but Keith Kinkaid is likely to get the start here. Kinkaid is seeking playoff revenge in this match-up. He was strong in winning his regular season start versus the Lightning last season but then they got the best of him early in last year's post-season series. Payback time here and the Devils are the healthier team and hungrier team entering this one. Also, the Lightning are off a 7-1 loss and they are an unimpressive 19-18 when off a game where they were held to 1 goal or less. The Devils have won 22 of their last 35 (+$12,500) Tuesday games and are off two days of rest and heading to Tampa Bay with a full head of steam. They are unlikely to be denied here and offering significant underdog value in this spot. Bet underdog New Jersey on the money line in early evening action Tuesday.

ASA 10* PLAY ON San Francisco -1 over Arizona, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - NFC WEST GAME OF THE YEAR

We thought the Niners might be in trouble when starting QB Garopollo went down.  They’ve actually played pretty well with CJ Beathard at QB.  He’s thrown for over 1,000 yards and 7 TD’s in his 4 starts.  Three of those starts were against the Chargers, Packers, and Rams so a tough schedule to say the least.  They held 4th quarter leads in their games @ Chargers and @ Packers but were unable to hold on vs those prolific offenses.  Beathard’s only other other start was against this Cardinal team.  Arizona upset San Fran 28-18 in that game a few weeks ago but the Niner absolutely dominated the stats.  In that game the 49ers were +227 yards, +23 first downs, and had a 40:00 to 20:00 minute time of possession edge and lost by 10!  That’s because they had 5 turnovers in the game while Arizona had zippo.  San Fran has been waiting for this rematch and we don’t see any way the Cards can keep up offensively.  We anticipate San Francisco putting up big numbers again (this time on the scoreboard as well) vs an Arizona defense that ranks dead last in the NFL vs the run and has allowed 72 points in their last 2 games.  Meanwhile the Cardinal offense has been putrid.  The rank last in the NFL in most key offensive categories and they have only topped 17 points once this entire year.  They have also not gained more than 268 yards in any game this season.  They are getting outgained by an average of 162 YPG on the season.  That’s bad folks.  While San Fran is playing hard and playing pretty well vs top notch competition as of late, the Cardinals seem to be in a bit of disarray.  They fired their offensive coordinator this week and their top DB wants to be traded.  We see things coming apart at the seams a bit for this team.  The Niners are well coached under Kyle Shanahan and his players respect him.  We think they roll into Arizona and pick up an easy in on Sunday.    

ASA 10* PLAY ON Pittsburgh -7.5 over Cleveland, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - AFC NORTH GAME OF THE MONTH

Situationally this game sets up really well for Pittsburgh.  The Steelers look like they are hitting their stride after struggling early in the season.  They scored 69 combined points their most recent 2 games beating Atlanta & Cincinnati.  They also dominated those games on the stat sheet.  They are coming off a bye and surely are ready to put a beat down on a Cleveland team they tied 21-21 to open the season.  In that game the Steelers were the much better team outgaining the Browns 472 to 327 but SIX turnovers did them in.  Even with a +5 turnover differential in the game, Cleveland wasn’t able to win.  Unlike the Steelers who are off a bye, Cleveland is playing their 2nd of back to back road games.  They are also playing for the 8th consecutive week and FOUR of their previous 7 have gone into overtime meaning they’ve logged the equivalent of almost a full extra game in those 8 weeks.  They look like they are running out of gas to us.  They played at Tampa Bay last week and while they lost in OT, the Bucs dominated the game outgaining Cleveland by 150 yards.  Tampa turned the ball over 4 times to just 1 for Cleveland.  Again, even with the big turnover advantage, the Browns were not able to win the game.  The offense continues to struggle as they’ve topped 21 points only twice the entire season vs Tampa Bay (28th in total defense) and Oakland (26th in total defense).  The Cleveland defense looked good early in the season but as we stated, they look like they are running out of gas allowing 45, 38, and 26 points in 3 of their last 4 games.  Pitt coach Tomlin has been very good as a big favorite with a 21-12 ATS record when laying more than a TD.  The Browns have now lost 24 straight road games and we think this one sets up as a potential Pittsburgh thumping.  Lay it. 

ASA PLAY ON 10* Oklahoma State Cowboys (+) over Texas Longhorns, Saturday at 8 PM ET: Game #180

Oklahoma State is a disappointing 4-3 on the season but they have a chance to put all of that behind them on Saturday night as the face 6th rated Texas in prime time on Saturday night. It’s homecoming and the Cowboys are honoring the great RB Barry Sanders who will be in the house. Okie State used their bye week to get healthy and focus on some of the basics after losing 3 of their last 4 games. We’re told they’ve had two great weeks of practice heading into this game and should be at their best. OSU is off a bad performance @ KSU two weeks ago losing 31-12 as an 8-point favorite. A week before that they lost at home to a very good Iowa State team in a game that went down to the wire. They had plenty of motivation heading into their bye and we expect them to play very well at home Saturday night. Texas is a bit overrated in our opinion. They’re decent but not great. Not a top 10 type team in our opinion. They have played 7 games this season (6-1 record) and 5 of those games have been one score games. The Horns have not played a true road game in nearly a month and have played only 2 all season, losing @ Maryland and winning @ KSU 19-14 scoring on a punt return and a safety in that game. They have also had a week off but we wouldn’t be surprised if the players are a bit full of themselves so to speak after a 6 game winning streak and their high ranking which has been a long time coming for Texas. They have a huge game at home on deck vs West Virginia as well so facing this struggling OSU team might not bring their peak effort. Texas QB Sam Ehlinger will play here but has a bad throwing shoulder so the playbook might be limited for the Horns. UT has covered only once as a favorite this year and they are 1-6 ATS in that role dating back to last season. OSU’s last home win was a shellacking of a very good Boise State game 44-21 back in September. They have struggled since but we have a feeling this is a circle the wagons game for them coming off a bye and expect a supreme effort. This becomes a huge game for their bowl eligibility with 3 of their final 4 games coming on the road. OSU has controlled this series as of late winning 4 of the last 5 so they will have plenty of confidence coming into this one. Take Oklahoma State at home.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Stanford Cardinal (-) over Washington State Cougars, Saturday at 7 PM ET: Game #162

The Cardinal lost last year at Washington State but there is more to this revenge situation than just that. The Cougars went down to Stanford and blasted the Cardinal 42-16 two years ago. That embarrassing home loss is one that deserves payback and this is the perfect spot for it. The Cougars are an amazing 7-0 ATS this season so they are becoming a popular choice with bettors right now. We all know what happens when a team becomes too popular as it is then that the value erodes away. In this case the Cardinal are now down to a 2.5 point choice as of mid-day Friday and this is a Stanford team that is 21-4 SU the last 25 times they've been favored. Also, when the Cardinal are involved in a game where their line range is between +3 and -3, they are 8-3 SU and 7-3-1 ATS. The Cougars are a long-term 2-5 ATS as a road dog of 3 points or less. In games played on grass, which tends to slow down Mike Leach's offense, Washington State is 2-4 ATS with one of the few such covers being the game at Stanford two years ago. Again, payback time. Although Cardinal RB Bryce Love is questionable for this game he certainly has not had a big season and the sum production of the two running backs who have filled in for him when has not been available is very nearly equal to Love's production on the season. In other words, the Love injury status is merely serving to give even more value here as it is also helping to keep this line low. On the season, Stanford has played a tougher schedule and, even with that, the Cardinals are allowing just 20.7 points per game while the Cougars are allowing 23.3 points per game. This is a huge game in the PAC-12 North as both teams have just one loss like Washington does. Next week Stanford is at Washington and so the Cardinal know that they control their own destiny. Fulfilling their immediate goal of finishing at the top of the PAC-12 North begins here with a big revenging home win over a Cougars team that is simply over-rated at this point in time. The only road wins that the Cougars have this season were at Wyoming and Oregon State. Those teams entered this week with a combined record of 3-12 this season. This is the toughest challenge Washington State has had since their road loss at USC and our math model forecast says they are losing on the road again here. Look for a home blowout win in this Saturday evening PAC-12 match-up.

ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON UNDER - Los Angeles Dodgers at Boston Red Sox, Wednesday at 8:05 PM ET

Yesterday's game found its way over the total early as, surprisingly, both Clayton Kershaw and Chris Sale had rare poor starts. However, just in time for World Series baseball...as if right on cue...a cold front rolled through Boston yesterday. It wasn't a dramatic change in temperatures but still the weather change has brought a rather bracing north wind and temperatures dropping into the 40s in the evenings at Fenway Park for these first two games. The hitters managed to get the job done yesterday, despite the cooler temps, but one shouldn't over-react to one game. In fact, now we've seen an over-reaction from the markets as this total went to an 8.5 compared to a 7.5 or 7 in Game 1. That is because the pitching match-up of David Price versus Hyun-Jin Ryu doesn't have the flashy appeal of a Kershaw / Sale match-up. However, the fact is each of these guys are very capable southpaws and each are certainly likely to pitch much better than the results seen from Kershaw and Sale yesterday. Ryu is off a poor start at Milwaukee in the NLCS but betting markets have a short-term memory and now they're focused on that when the reality is that the lefty entered that outing with a 0.89 ERA in his 5 prior starts! As for Price, the Red Sox going 14-4 in his home starts this season had a lot do with him firing mostly quality outings in Boston this season. Also, he is coming off the gem versus the Astros in the ALCS and has plenty of momentum coming into this start as a result. Look for a huge effort from both starting pitchers here and our expectation is a 2-1 or 3-2 type game that lands well short of the 8.5 that has been posted on this one. Bet the UNDER in Boston in evening action Wednesday

ASA 10* PLAY ON Baltimore -2.5 over New Orleans, Sunday at 4:00 PM ET

This line is fluctuating between -2.5 points and -3 points but the majority are still at 2.5  Either way we like the Ravens to get it done at home over the Saints. If you haven’t seen them play yet, it’s worth the time to watch this Ravens defense as it’s dominating. Baltimore beat Tennessee last week 21-0 allowing just 7 first downs and 106 total yards in the game. The Ravens defense has been lights out allowing 14, 14, 9, and 0 points the last 4 gms in regulation. The Saints defense gave up 48 points in opener (to TB) but seem to have righted the ship allowing 19 points or less in 3 of their last 4 games but they’ve played the Browns (24th in scoring), Giants (27th) and Washington (25th). Baltimore is off 3 straight road games and should be happy to be home where they’ve won by 44 and 13 points already this season. Ravens outscoring opponents 62-12 in second half (regulation) of their 6 games this year, thus they are allowing less than a FG average in 2nd half. Baltimore #1 defense allowing 270 YPG (306 is 2nd) also #1 allowing 4.4 yards per play (4.9 is 2nd). We like the Ravens pass defense which is 2nd in the NFL allowing just 188 passing yards per game on the season versus the Saint’s 3rd ranked passing O. Let’s not forget about a Ravens offense that is 9th in the league in yards per game overall and 9th in passing. Baltimore 5-1 SU their last six at home, Saints just 2-4 SU their last six away.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Carolina +5 over Philadelphia, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

We are not a fan of laying points with the Panthers but do like them getting points in this matchup with the Eagles. An interesting game within a game will be the rushing attack of the Panthers versus the Eagles rush defense. It’s literally Strength on strength with Carolina 4th in the NFL in rushing at 139 YPG and Philly #2 at stopping the run allowing 79 YPG. But hold that thought. Are the Eagles really that good at stopping the run? We don’t think so as the Eagles 79 YPG rush defense numbers are a bit skewed as they’ve played the following rush offenses (22nd, 27th, 28th, 29th, 30th, and 31st). The metrics tell us against an average team the Eagles will give up an average of 105RYPG so a good team like Carolina should do more damage on the ground than that. Overall the Eagles defense has given up over 375 yards in 4 of five games this year and over 397 three times. The Panthers have held 2 of the five teams they’ve faced to under 300 total yards of offense. Since their inception in 1995 Carolina is 59-42-1 ATS as a road dog of more than 3 pts and QB Cam Newton is 19-8 ATS as an underdog off a SU loss. Based on strength of schedule and the statistics that account for opponents played, we like Carolina here and the points.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER: Mississippi State Bulldogs @ LSU Tigers, Saturday at 7 PM ET: Game #403

This total made an interesting move this week. It opened at 44.5 and even though more than 75% are on the UNDER, it moved up a point. We liked the OVER to begin with and that move definitely signals a play on here. LSU’s offense is playing much better than most give it credit for. They have scored 30+ points in 5 of their 7 games this year. They are perfectly balanced on offense averaging 202 YPG rushing and 202 YPG passing which makes them very tough to defend. Last week against a very good Georgia defense the Tigers put up 36 points and almost 500 yards! We think they’ll do some damage vs a Mississippi State defense that has solid numbers but has played a number of weak offenses including Stephen F Austin, UL Lafayette, Kansas State, and Florida. This will be the most productive offense they’ve faced this season. On the other side of the ball LSU played great last week. They held Georgia to 16 points in a 20 point win. We have a feeling the Tigers put a LOT of emotional effort into that game knowing they were playing a very good Bulldog offense. We wouldn’t be at all surprised if they had a bit of a letdown on that side of the ball. Especially with Alabama on deck after next week’s bye. LSU has been solid defensively but they have given up 21+ points in 3 of their last 5 games. Mississippi State’s offense was rolling early in the season and their totals were mainly set in the high 50’s and low 60’s. They then hit a rough patch on offense vs Kentucky and Florida on back to back weekends but bounced back on that side of the ball last week vs Auburn. The Dogs scored 23 points on 418 yards last week and we look for them to land in that range again this week. Where this total sits right now, the oddsmakers are expecting a final score in the range of 26-19 in favor of LSU. We feel both offenses top those point totals and we take the OVER here. Our math model forecast suggests that you can look for a surprisingly high scoring all out shootout in this Saturday evening SEC match-up.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tampa Bay Lightning Puck Line (-1.5 goals) vs Detroit Red Wings, Thursday at 7:35 PM ET

On April 21, 2016 the Lightning won game 5 of a first round playoff series with the Red Wings to take the series 4 games to 1. Ever since that game these teams have met 8 times the past two seasons and, of course, Detroit has had revenge on their minds in every single game but they have lost every time. The fact is that the once-mighty Red Wings just might be the worst team in the league now while Tampa Bay just might be the best team in the league. Certainly the Bolts are a legitimate Stanley Cup contender and the amazing thing is that they are so deep in terms of their scoring. The Lightning don't even have to have their biggest stars off to hot starts to be able to have put forth a strong start to this season. That said, Tampa Bay is actually "scary good" right now for opponents while the Red Wings are truly "scary bad". Detroit is winless in their 6 games this season and also winless in their last 10 meetings with the Lightning. Tampa Bay will NOT let up here as they have a 5-game road trip on deck. This is the final home game for the Bolts until October 30th so they want to make this one count in a big way! Tampa's last two wins have come by a combined score of 12-4 while the Red Wings last 3 losses have come by a combined score of 20-8. With that said, we love the value with the Lightning on the Puck Line in this one. Of course on the money line the Bolts are about a 3 to 1 favorite here. However, on the puck line, we get them at a pick'em price by laying the 1.5 goals and our math model forecast is a win by a 3 goal margin in this game. The Lightning are the better team in all phases all over the ice and that shows in a big way on Thursday as the Bolts make it 11 straight wins over the Red Wings with a blowout home win. Bet Tampa Bay on the puck line (-1.5 goals) in evening action Thursday.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Over 46 Points - Arizona @ Green Bay, Monday at 8:15 PM ET

Both of these teams are 4-1 to the OVER this year and we expect another high scoring game on Monday night.  Much has been made of Aaron Rodgers knee problem but the fact is the offense is clicking right now knee problem or not.  They have topped 400 yards in each of the last 2 games and while they scored 22 and 23 points in those games, it should have been much more.  Last week vs Detroit they put up 23 points but the normally reliable Mason Crosby missed 4 FG’s and an extra point thus leaving a potential 13 more points off the board.  A week earlier Green Bay had 19 points just a few minutes into the 2nd half but a terrible Buffalo offense had yet to score so the Pack went pretty conservative offensively and only score one more FG the rest of the way.  We don’t anticipate that happening here.  Green Bay needs a breakout performance (scoring wise) and we think they get it tonight vs a SF defense that has allowed 24, 27, 38, 29, and 28 points in their 5 games this season.  The Niners are 23rd in pass efficiency defense and they do not put much pressure on the QB (1.8 sacks per game).  Rodgers should have a big night.  There is also a good chance he gets WR’s Cobb and Allison back as they practiced on Thursday and they are game time decisions.  Many thought the Niners offense would go in the tank once they lost QB Garopollo for the season.  That really hasn’t been the case as his back up CJ Beathard has led this offense to 27 & 18 points in his absence.  Last week’s 18 point performance should have been MUCH higher as they put up 447 yards vs a solid Arizona defense but missed a FG and had 5 turnovers – many in Arizona territory.  Beathard has thrown for 298 & 349 yards in his 2 starts but he’s also prone to mistakes as he’s turned the ball over 4 times.  Those can lead to defensive scores as he’s given up one in each of his two starts.  The only shut down game for Green Bay’s defense this year was their shutout vs Buffalo.  Let’s not forget the Bills are the worst offense in the NFL averaging only 12 PPG and a terrible 3.7 yards per play which is by far the lowest in the league.  Throw out that game and the Packer defense has allowed an average of 28.5 PPG.  The weather looks decent tonight with temps in the 30’s and little wind (10 MPH or less).  We like the OVER tonight.

ASA 10* PLAY ON New England -3 over Kansas City, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET

We view this as a game the Pats will want to make a statement.  Many have now said that KC is the team to beat in the AFC which is the title that has been held by the Pats for multiple years.  Do you think Belichick & Brady will want to squash that sentiment in this game?  Add to that this is a revenge game from the season opener last year and you can pretty much guarantee they want to make a statement here.  New England has had extra time to get ready for this huge home match up after beating the Colts 38-24 on Thursday night.  While we believe the Chiefs are a very solid team, we also feel they have been very fortunate to date.  They’ve been outgained in 4 of their 5 games (-300 yards on the season) and they have the worst defense in the NFL allowing 462 YPG (ranking 31st in pass defense & 24th in rush defense).  To be 5-0 in that situation means they’ve absolutely gotten some fortunate breaks.  Last week they beat a very good Jacksonville team 30-14 but were handed the win by the Jags who turned the ball over 5 times including throwing 2 picks in the endzone, another at the 1-yard line, and also throwing a pick 6.  The Jags made 5 official trips inside KC’s 20 yard line and came away with a grand total of 7 points on those possessions.  QB Patrick Mahomes came back to earth throwing 2 picks and 0 TD’s.  We’re positive Belichick will have a very solid defensive gameplan for Mahomes in this one.  The Patriots offense is peaking right now scoring 38 points in each of their last 2 games, they have WR Julian Edelman back in the line up, and Tom Brady should have a field day vs the 31st rank pass defense.  We simply don’t see the Patriots in this price range at home very often as they’ve been a favorite of less than 4 points only 4 times since 2010 (3-1 ATS).  They are also a fantastic 18-3 ATS at home as a favorite of less than a TD since December of 2010.  KC is playing their 4th road game already this season and this is a very dangerous spot for them.  The Pats are 93-15 SU at home since December of 2006 and with this number sitting as low as it is, the value is definitely with the Patriots.  Lay the small number with New England.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Denver +7 over LA Rams, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET

The Rams finally had to leave the state of California last week and they almost got clipped for the first time this year.  They came from behind in the 4th quarter to beat Seattle 33-31.  IT was just their 2nd road game this season with their first being @ Oakland to open the season.  Now LA is on the road for the 2nd straight week and in altitude.  They should be catching the Broncos in an ornery mood after playing a terrible game on the road last week @ NY Jets.  The Denver defense gave up an uncharacteristic 323 yards on the GROUND to the Jets, the most by a Bronco defense since 2010.  They obviously were not physically or mentally ready for that game and we expect a huge bounce back on Sunday.  While they have struggled on the road winning just 1 of their last 12 games, Denver is a different animal at home.  They are 2-1 here this year with their only loss coming 27-23 to 5-0 Kansas City, a game that Denver led 23-13 midway through the 4th quarter.  They were +3 to +3.5 in that game vs an undefeated KC team and now they are getting a full TD here vs a comparable team.  You almost never see Denver as that type of dog at home as this is just the 4th time since 1980 they’ve been a home dog of +7 or more.  The Rams looked unbeatable early in the season vs Oakland and Arizona but those wins now don’t look quite as impressive as those teams have a combined record of just 2-8.  After their first two games vs weak competition, their defense has not looked very good giving up 23, 31, and 31 points their last 3.  Their run defense has really struggled allowing 5 YPC which is 29th in the NFL.  That’s a problem here vs a Denver rushing attack that ranks #1 in the NFL averaging 5.6 YPC.  This sets up as a dangerous game for the Rams and we’ll grab the generous points with the home team here. 

ASA 10* PLAY ON Indianapolis +2 over NY Jets, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

Big mismatch at the QB position here with Luck vs Darnold.  The much better and more experienced QB is getting points which is always worth a look.  People are overreacting to the Jets crushing the Broncos last week.  It wasn’t a huge surprise as Denver has been a terrible road team under head coach Vance Joseph now losing 11 of their last 12 games away from home.  Darnold had to do very little in that game (completed just 10 passes) as the Jets ran for a ridiculous 323 yards.  It’s not as if the Jets were some terrific running team as they were averaging just 88 YPG on the ground coming into last week’s game.  Now they face an Indy defense that is allowing only 4 YPC which is 10th best in the NFL.  NY won’t run wild this week and Darnold will have more pressure to make plays on Sunday.  Let’s also not forget that the Jets had lost 3 straight games (scoring just 41 combined points in those 3 games) heading into their impressive win vs Denver.  The Colts have had 10 days to rest up and prepare for this game after losing @ New England on Thursday night.  Indy desperately needs a win here as they come in off three straight losses.  Two were down to the wire, tight games @ Philadelphia (lost 20-16) and vs Houston (lost 37-34 in OT).  The Colts have outgained 3 of their 5 opponents and their defense is actually quite solid.  They are very good at getting to the QB (3rd in sacks per game and 6th in sack percentage) so we wouldn’t be at all surprised if Darnold is rushed in to a few mistakes in this game.  Andrew Luck is a great 22-4 SU and 21-5 ATS the game following a SU & ATS loss.  He is rolling right now as well throwing for over 800 yards and 7 TD’s his last 2 games.  We like the Colts to win this game outright on Sunday.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* USC Trojans (-) over Colorado Buffaloes, Saturday at 10:30 PM ET: Game #156

With the Buffaloes at 5-0 on the season, ranked in the top 25, and catching significant points here; of course that is attracting attention within the betting markets as the unranked Trojans are only 3-2 on the season. The key though is in strength of schedule. USC has played a much tougher schedule than Colorado has and the result is superb line value here. The Trojans losses were road losses at Stanford and Texas. The Buffaloes have yet to lose a game but their "toughest" games (based on the lines in those contests) were at Nebraska and versus Arizona State. That is certainly noteworthy as Nebraska is now 0-5 on the season and the Sun Devils have lost 3 of their last 4 games. That said, a game at Southern Cal against a quality Trojans team is certainly a much tougher challenge than hosting ASU and visiting the Huskers (having such an awful season). Also note that the Buffaloes were outgained at Nebraska by a margin of 565 to 395 yards! In other words, Colorado was fortunate to get the win. The Buffs opened the season with a neutral site game against Colorado State and, therefore, this game at USC is just the 2nd true road game for Colorado this season. Considering the Buffaloes, in their first road game of the season, were outgained by 170 yards by a team that is now 0-5 on the season, the Buffs are likely to struggle with the talent level of this Trojans team! Southern Cal is off back to back wins and a bye week. With that said, the Trojans enter this game both rested and confident as they look to make it 3 straight wins in PAC-12 action. USC has won each of the last 7 meetings between these teams (they've met annually since the 2011 season) and the average margin of victory has been 19.4 points per win! Colorado is 1-8 ATS when they are a dog of less than 17 points and playing the first of back to back road games (Buffaloes are at Washington State next week). Look for a home blowout win in this Saturday late night PAC-12 match-up.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Jacksonville +3 over Kansas City, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

We’re getting points with the better team here.  Much has been made of KC’s offense thus far but we expect defenses to catch up with their scheme.  We could see it on Monday night when KC went into Denver and had only 13 points with under 7:00 minutes remaining in the game.  They did score 2 TD’s late but for much of the game their offense was held in check by a pretty average Denver defense that ranks middle of the pack in most key categories.  Now they face a Jacksonville defense that ranks #2 in the NFL in efficiency, #1 in PPG allowed, #1 in YPG allowed, and #2 in yards per play allowed.  KC is on a short week after a come from behind division win on Monday night which is not a great spot for them.  While the Jags might have the best defense in the NFL, the Chiefs might have the worst.  They rank near the bottom of the NFL in many key categories including total defense, scoring defense, YPP defense, rush defense, yards per pass attempt allowed, and defensive efficiency.  The Jaguar offense has been solid with the exception of one game this year vs the Titans.  They’ve scored 31 points in 2 of their last 3 games and will put points up here vs a bad KC defense.  We rate Jacksonville with a big edge in the trenches on both sides of the ball which normally doesn’t equate to an underdog which is what we have here.  KC is overvalued right now because of their offense.  They’ve put up big numbers however all 4 of their opponents rank 20th or lower in pass defense.  They now run into a great defense in Jacksonville that ranks #1 in pass defense and a team who also has a pretty good offense.  The yards per play differential with these two teams in tells us a lot with Jacksonville at +1.3 YPP (one of the best in the NFL) and KC at -0.1 YPP.  This is one of those games a few months from now people may look back and wonder why they didn’t take advantage of Jacksonville as an underdog in this spot.  We’ll make sure we do.  Take the Jags here.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Iowa Hawkeyes (-) over Minnesota Golden Gophers, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #387

The Hawkeyes can't wait to get on the field for this one. After a tough home loss versus Wisconsin - game was much closer than final score indicates - Iowa has had two weeks to wait for this game because of a bye last week. That said, off of their first loss of the season, the Hawkeyes are extra hungry. One could argue the same fact for the Golden Gophers as Minnesota is off of their first loss of the season too and is coming off of a bye week. However, that is where the comparisons end. For one thing, Iowa played a solid Badgers team and played them tough. Compare this with Minnesota playing a Maryland team that is certainly not a Big Ten powerhouse by any stretch of the imagination and they got blasted by a 29-point margin. A big concern for the Golden Gophers is they allowed over 300 yards rushing in that game. Iowa has a very capable ground attack that is balanced well by a passing attack that has averaged nearly 300 yards per game their past two games. Iowa has a huge edge at the skill positions as Minnesota lost their senior running back early this season and now has much of the running back duties being handled by freshmen plus the Golden Gophers have a freshman QB whom is a walk-on. There is simply no comparison between the talent level of these teams. Also, while Kirk Ferentz is in his 20th year as the head coach at Iowa - longest-tenured head coach among FBS schools in the nation - PJ Fleck is in his just 2nd season with Minnesota and there are still growing pains. Though the Golden Gophers started the season with 3 straight wins, two of those victories came against over-matched New Mexico State and Miami-Ohio. Minnesota went just 2-7 in Big Ten action last season and is now 2-8 in Big Ten games under PJ Fleck after getting demolished by the Terrapins two weeks ago. The 8 losses have come by an average margin of 19 points per defeat. That is very close to what our computer math model is predicting for this game. Iowa is a 1 TD favorite but the forecast is for a blowout by a 3 TD margin. The Hawkeyes are 8-0 ATS the last 8 times they've been a favorite of less than 17 points and they are facing an opponent off of a SU loss by a margin of more than 14 points. That system fits perfectly here! Look for a road rout win in this Saturday afternoon Big Ten match-up.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Baltimore +3 over Pittsburgh, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET

We love looking at teams with the MUCH better defense getting points.  That’s absolutely what we have here as Baltimore has the 5th most efficient defense in the NFL right now (according to Football Outsiders) and Pittsburgh is 19th.  The Ravens are allowing just 17 PPG while the Steelers have given up 30 PPG on the season.  On top of that Baltimore is allowing 138 fewer yards per game so overall ranking 1st in the NFL on total defense so a big edge defensively for us in this one.  The Pittsburgh offense looks as if they are rolling the last 2 weeks putting up big numbers vs KC & Tampa.  However, let’s put that in perspective as those team defenses rank 31st and 32nd in total defense.  The one decent defense the Steelers played this year was Cleveland and they scored just 21 in that game.  Baltimore’s offense is looking much better than it did the last few seasons as they are already averaging 32 PPG this season.  They will absolutely be able to move the ball vs this porous Pitt defense on Sunday.  Pittsburgh is on a short week after winning Monday night at Tampa 30-27 – nearly blowing a 30-10 lead because of their poor defense.  Steelers just 3-9 ATS their last 12 games off an outright win and 12 of last 20 in this series have been decided by 3 or less.  The dog is 9-3-1 ATS last 12 meetings and we simply think Baltimore is the better team this year.  Take the points.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Under 52 Points - New Orleans @ NY Giants, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET

We like the value with the number here as this total has been bet all the way up to 52 after opening at 49. Vegas is forced to set the number this high as the Saints have played two games that ended with 168 total combined points. But those games came against the Falcons and Bucs who both have horrible defenses (29th and 30th in defensive efficiency) and good offenses (TB 5th, ATL 12th in offensive efficiency). That produced to VERY high scoring games with the Saints. In their other game against the Browns (similar to the Giants) they totaled just 39 points. What's important to note here is that the Saints defense has some ugly statistics this season, but again, consider they've played two really bad defenses and padded those numbers. The same can be said about their offense. The Giants meanwhile have played two of three low scoring affairs with totals of 35, 33 and 49 points. In their game in Houston last week the Giants and Texans had just 35 total points with 2 minutes to play before two late garbage TD's by the Texans (1 came with 1 second left). The Giants are allowing just 20.7PPG and have the 9th best yards per point defense in the NFL. You have to go back a few years to find a Giants game with a total set this high which tells us enough. New York is 27th in the NFL in pace of play while the Saints are 21st. In the last seven meetings in the Big Apple the Under has cashed 5 times. Bet UNDER!

ASA 10* PLAY ON Oakland -2.5 over Cleveland, Sunday at 4:00 PM ET

If Jon Gruden doesn't win this game he might just get run out of Oakland along with his 100 million dollar contract! The Raiders have played well this year but haven't cracked the win column yet, that changes today. Oakland has outgained the Rams and Dolphins and were barely outgained by 12 yards in Denver but are still 0-3. The Raiders have the 11th best offensive efficiency rating in the NFL this year and that's going against a solid group of defenses. Oakland's defensive efficiency is skewed as they've faced two top 8 offenses this year and Denver who is 15th. What we're saying is this, the Raiders are far better than their record indicates and are only laying a field goal or less in this contest. Cleveland comes into this game with their first win since 2016 as they beat the Jets. Really, a win over a bad Jets team with another rookie QB makes this team even on a neutral field against the Raiders? The Browns have lost 22 straight road losses and have their own rookie QB making his first start ever on the road. Cleveland's offense is one of the worst in the league at 30th in OEFF and 20 points (average) isn't going to be enough to keep pace with the Raiders who are 6th in the league in total yards per game (400ypg).  The Browns last 16 road losses have come by an average of 11.5PPG! Need we say more. Play the Raiders. 

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* South Carolina Gamecocks (+) over Kentucky Wildcats, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #141

When you see a ranked team hosting an unranked foe and yet priced in a "pick'em" range it certainly is something worthy of investigation. Of course the markets are enamored with Kentucky right now after seeing them upset Mississippi State last week. However the Bulldogs were caught looking ahead to a big game against Florida (their former coach) and they paid for it with an ugly loss. Prior to this game the Wildcats have looked strong but two of their three prior games were against Central Michigan and Murray State. They're facing a tough South Carolina team that has inexplicably lost 4 straight meetings with the Cats. In other words, revenge is in order here. The Gamecocks have a ton of momentum here as they completely demolished the Commodores in the 2nd half of their game last week at Vanderbilt. Though South Carolina lost by 10 to the Wildcats last season, they actually outgained Kentucky in that game. The Gamecocks have faced the tougher schedule this season and also could have the fresher legs here. The Wildcats will be playing their 5th straight Saturday while South Carolina had a bye two weeks ago on the 15th prior to then pummeling Vanderbilt last week. Kentucky is 20-37 SU (including 3-6 SU in recent seasons) when off of a win over an SEC foe. South Carolina, in games with a line between -3 and +3, has gone 4-1 SU and ATS in recent seasons. The Gamecocks are also 3-1 SU (4-0 ATS) in their last 4 games played on turf. The South Carolina passing attack has been a clear strength this season and will be the difference-maker in this match-up. The Wildcats rely heavily on the run and the Gamecocks actually have been strong against the run but their numbers got skewed by the match-up against Georgia. Of course the Bulldogs are certainly one of the top teams in the nation and note that South Carolina held their other two opponents this season (including Vandy last week) to an average of only 3 yards per carry. With this line currently at -1 on Kentucky but possibly moving higher (the public choice in this match-up) it is also worth nothing that the Wildcats are on a 2-11 ATS run as a favorite! Look for a road rout revenge win in this Saturday evening SEC match-up.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Minnesota +7.5 over LA Rams, Thursday at 8:20 PM ET

The Vikings are now backed into a corner having lost last week to Buffalo and tied the week before vs Green Bay.  This is a much bigger game for Minnesota coming in with a 1-1-1 record.  The Vikes come into this one angry after a complete no-show last week at home vs Buffalo.  They became the first team since 1995 to lose outright as a 16-point or higher favorite.  A letdown was expected from Minnesota after an overtime tie with Green Bay a week earlier and this game with the Rams on deck.  The yardage vs Buffalo was dead even but Minny had 3 turnovers while the Bills didn’t turn the ball over.  Buffalo jumped out to a 24-0 lead early in the 2nd quarter which took Minnesota completely out of their offensive game plan.  They only ran the ball 6 times while attempting 55 passes.  The Rams are obviously very good but we feel they come in a bit overvalued after winning each of their first 3 games by double digits.  Remember two of those wins were against Oakland and Arizona who have combined to go 0-6.  The look ahead line on this game before the season began was the Rams -3.  Now we’re getting a full TD with one of the top teams in the NFL coming off an embarrassing loss.  They’re facing the Rams with both starting CB’s out and on top of that, Viking head coach Mike Zimmer is 11-2 ATS when off a loss and facing a non-NFC North foe.  Take the points here.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER - Milwaukee Brewers @ St Louis Cardinals, Tuesday at 8:15 PM ET

This total was set at 9 when odds makers released it but the number has now come down to an 8.5 as of Tuesday morning. We like the value being offered here considering that there is reason to believe each of these starters will struggle. Keep in mind, even though the Cardinals have been locked into a race for a post-season berth, they have not been getting involved in pitchers duels. In fact, with last night's 6-4 loss to the Brewers flying over the total, the over is now a perfect 7-0 in the Cards last 7 games. St Louis should stay hot at the plate versus Gio Gonzalez. Though he has some good numbers since coming to the Brewers, Gonzalez has struggled on the road this season. He got rocked for 5 earned runs in 4 innings in his most recent start at St Louis. That tough outing is part of a stretch since mid-June that has seen Gonzalez allow 34 earned runs in 46 and 2 / 3 innings spanning his last 9 road starts. That equates to a 6.56 ERA for the Brewers southpaw in his last 9 outings away from home. Cardinals southpaw Austin Gomber is also likely to struggle in this one. He is nearing a career high in innings pitched (majors and minors combined) and appears to be wearing down. Gomber has allowed 8 earned runs on 15 hits in 8 innings spanning his last two starts. Each of those outings went over the total and we expect another one here! The Brewers have scored 6 runs or more in 5 of their last 7 games and Milwaukee stays "locked in" at the plate tonight. Look for an easy totals winner soaring past the low number. Bet the OVER in St Louis in evening action Tuesday

ASA 10* PLAY ON Baltimore -10 over Denver, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - ASA's AFC GAME OF THE MONTH

The Broncos are easily the weakest 2-0 team in the NFL.  Their two wins have come against Seattle & Oakland by a combined 4 points.  Those two teams have yet to win a game and BOTH led Denver in the 4th quarter before the Broncos rallied for a tight win.  Now Denver has to travel to the east coast in their first road game of the year and they are a team that is 1-9 SU their last 10 road games.  Denver’s once vaunted defense looks like they have lost their luster.  Especially vs the pass where Oakland’s David Carr lit them up last week for 288 yards completing 29 of his 32 attempts.  A week earlier Russell Wilson threw for 298 yards and 3 TD’s on this Denver defense.  Now they face Joe Flacco who has thrown for 620 yards and 5 TD’s in his two games.  Expect a big day from him.  The Ravens are off a Thursday night loss @ Cincinnati so they have had extra time to get ready for this home game.  They actually outgained the Bengals in that game and despite their 1-1 record Baltimore is +268 in total yardage on the year.   Since 2003, undefeated teams that are underdogs of more than three points on the road are just 36-52-2 ATS (41%) against the spread.  Baltimore by a TD or more in this one.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Utah State Aggies (-) over Air Force Falcons, Saturday at 10:15 PM ET: Game #392

Air Force returned only 5 starters on offense and 6 starters on defense. That 6 became 5 when starting DB James Jones was lost for the season (ACL). Last season the Falcons went just 5-7 on the season as they returned only 6 starters total! That is why there has been a big drop-off in talent level and experience at Air Force as their three previous bowl seasons (2014 to 2016) saw them average 13 returning starters. Now the past two seasons, and with the loss of Jones, they've averaged 8 returning starters. This spells trouble against the revenge-minded Aggies here. Utah State has had this game circled as they have lost each of the last 3 meetings with Air Force and all 3 were very close games. Keep in mind, prior to this 3-game losing streak (each game decided by just a single score), the Aggies had won the two prior meetings (2013 and 2014) by an average margin of 25 points per game. We feel that, based on the disparity between these two teams this season coupled with the fact that this game is in Logan Utah, a blowout of similar proportion is on tap here! Utah State returned 18 starters this season and looks solid on both sides of the ball and they are particularly improved on the defensive side of the ball. Air Force is off of a bye last week but the Aggies have a bye week on deck so there is no real edge for the Falcons there. In fact, with how "out of sorts" that the Falcons were at Florida Atlantic two weeks ago (allowed 471 yards passing!) a bye week may not help matters as Air Force is seeking some consistency in their play and they don't have it right now. The Aggies threw for nearly 300 yards in last week's win and they did eclipse 300 passing yards at Michigan State in their season opener too. Also, the ground attack has averaged nearly 300 yards per game the past two weeks. Utah State's defense has looked much improved early this season and has the veteran experience to handle the Falcons option attack. Air Force is the only Mountain West team to beat the Aggies each of the last three seasons. That's right, not even Boise State has done that as Utah State upset them at Boise in 2015. The point being that head coach Chris Wells and the upperclassmen that are up and down this Aggies lineup are ready for their revenge here and they'll take advantage of a Falcons team that is heading for another down season just like last year. The Aggies already have benefited from 9 turnovers in 3 games this season and Utah State will continue be opportunistic on defense. This is all without linebacker Suli Tamaivena. Though the senior is still out the Aggies defense has filled in well in his absence and is loaded with upperclassmen. Lay the points and look for a home blowout in this Saturday night Mountain West match-up.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER - Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees, Wednesday at 7:05 PM ET

This total was set at 8.5 when odds makers released it but the number has now come down to an 8 as of Wednesday morning. We like the value being offered here considering that there is reason to believe each of these starters will struggle. Boston's David Price has found Yankee Stadium to be a "house of horrors" for him ever since he came to the Red Sox. The southpaw has gone 0-5 with a 10.44 ERA in his 5 starts there. In his most recent outing there he allowed 5 homers on July 1st! He is not the only pitcher likely to struggle tonight. The Yankees Luis Severino just hasn't been the same pitcher he was in the first half of the season when he was dominating the opposition. The last time he faced the Red Sox (August 3rd) he allowed 4 earned runs in less than 6 innings and Severino had more walks than strikeouts. In his last 11 starts, the Yankees right-hander has gone 3-6 with a 6.43 ERA. The over is 10-3 in Severino's 13 starts since July 1st. Also, he has made 5 home starts during that stretch and the over went a perfect 5-0! The over is also a perfect 3-0 in Price's last 3 starts at Yankee Stadium. After that pitchers' duel last night, don't be surprised when this one sees runs early and often which should lead to an easy totals winner soaring past the low number. Bet the OVER in the New York Yankees game in early evening action Wednesday

ASA 10* PLAY ON Over 41.5 Points - NY Giants @ Dalllas, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET

Because of the way these two offenses performed in week 1, we’re getting some solid value on the OVER here.  The total opened 43.5 and has dropped ever since and we’re now jumping on the OVER.  Last week Dallas scored only 8 points and the NY Giants put up just 15.  While neither team lit it up yardage wise, both moved the ball enough to score more than what they did a week ago.  Also keep in mind both were facing top 10 defenses from a year ago (Jacksonville & Carolina) so the struggles weren’t completely surprising.  We expect the Giants to have a much better offense this year despite what happened last week.  They have shored up their offensive line and they have added more weapons including RB Saquon Barkley.  They also have WR Odell Beckham back at full strength and with him in the line-up last year they averaged 23 PPG compared to 13 PPG when he was not available.  Dallas didn’t look as good offensively as the Giants but they have potential with one of the top RB’s in the league along with a solid QB in Dak Prescott.  We’re pretty sure both teams stressed offensive performance and finishing drives in practice this week so expect a better performance from each.  If this total stays at 42 or less, it will be the lowest total set on this rivalry since 2005.  They’ve simply adjusted this one too much and we take the OVER.    

ASA 10* PLAY ON Under 45.5 Points - Oakland @ Denver, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET

Denver put up 27 points last week on Seattle which may look impressive but the Seahawks defense is nowhere near what it used to be.  We anticipate Seattle’s defense, who lost 5 former pro-bowlers off last year’s defense alone, to be in the lower third of the league.  We took advantage of that last week using the OVER in Seattle – Denver and cashed in.  That was set at 42 and this week it’s 45 or 45.5 in this game.  Despite giving up 33 points last week to the Rams, the Oakland defense was fairly impressive in our minds.  They held one of, if not the best, offense to just 98 yards and 10 points in the first half.  For the game the Rams only had 365 yards and 26 points if you take away the late pick 6 LA had.  So not bad at all for the Raider defense.  Denver’s defense was solid last week allowing Seattle only 306 total yards.  The Broncos were the top total defense in the NFL last year allowing 290 YPG and we expect them to be near the top again this year.  Neither of these offenses is overly dynamic and both teams know each other very well being a division match up.  5 of the last 6 in this series have gone UNDER the total and Oakland had now gone UNDER in 8 straight games dating back to last year.  We anticipate a defensive grinder here and we’re on the UNDER.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington Huskies (-) over Utah Utes, Saturday at 10 PM ET: Game #205

Tremendous line value here. When you look at the fact that Washington was roughly a "pick'em" in their match-up against Auburn to open up the season and the fact that those same Tigers are now a double digit favorite this weekend over LSU, you can see why perceived value here with the Huskies in the 5-point range is certainly more than just perception! The point being that Utah is really not close to the level of the Tigers of Auburn and yet the pricing here is really not that much different. This has led to exceptional line value here on a Washington team that very nearly did (and arguably should of) beat Auburn in that season opening game in a "neutral" site game at Atlanta, Georgia. We like the fact that the Huskies returned most of their starters (including on defense) from last season's team while Utah lost most of their starters on defense. The Utes are 2-0 on the season but they've played two weak teams and they barely escaped at Northern Illinois last week. They had a late field goal and a interception return for a TD in a truly unimpressive 17-6 victory over the Huskies. They face much tougher "Huskies" this week and, unlike the Utes, Washington has already faced tougher competition by virtue of that season opener against Auburn. Being battle-tested by an SEC foe gives the Huskies an additional early season edge over a Utes team whose inexperienced defense is going to spell trouble for Utah fans as they won't be able to stop a potent Washington offense. The Huskies aerial attack, led by senior QB Jake Browning, will dominate here. Washington is on a 9-4 ATS run as road chalk in the PAC-12 and they are also 10-1 SU in their last 11 meetings with Utah. We see every reason to believe that the series dominance continues this weekend! Lay the points and look for a road rout in this Saturday night PAC-12 match-up.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Over 42 Points - Seattle @ Denver, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET

The Seahawks were long known as one of the top defenses on the NFL and they look like they are still living off those laurels as this total is set too low.  Seattle has lost a ton of defensive talent over the last few years including 5 former pro bowlers off last year’s team alone (Chancellor, Sherman, Avril, Bennett, and Richardson).  Last year they finished outside the top 10 in total defense for the first time since 2010 and we look for a further drop this year minus those players.  We project the Seattle defense to finish in the bottom half of the league this season.  The Denver defense also fell off drastically last year after allowing 18 PPG in 2016 the allowed 24 PPG a year ago.  So both defenses a bit overrated entering the season in our minds.  Offensively Denver should improve greatly with new QB Case Keenum who is a big upgrade over the Bronco QB’s last year (Siemian, Osweiler, and Lynch).  He has some very good weapons at wideout and TE so we look for an improvement on last year’s 21 PPG.  Seattle averaged 23 PPG last year and with Russell Wilson at QB they are always a threat to put up big numbers.  They scored over 20 points in 10 of their 16 games last year and we have a feeling with their defense taking a big step back Seattle will have to be aggressive offensive to try and outscore people this year.