ASA top play on 10* OVER 235 Indiana Pacers at Detroit Pistons, 7:10 PM ET - Looking back at last season’s meetings between these two teams we see the O/U’s set were 235.5, 247.5, 247.5 and 246. Three of the four games went Over the total with the four games averaging 243PPG. Neither team will play any defense here as the Pistons ranked 26th in Defensive Efficiency allowing 1.190-points per possession. Indiana wasn’t much better, ranking 24th in DEFF allowing 1.181PPP. Detroit averaged less than 1.000 points per possession a year ago but scored points with a higher volume of field goal attempts and a faster pace of play. Detroit was 8th in pace and preferred to play with tempo. That’s not a good recipe against the Pacers who were 2nd in pace, scored 123.3PPG with the second-best Offensive Efficiency rating of 1.211PPP. Detroit should be more efficient offensively with the offseason acquisitions of Tobias Harris, Tim Hardaway Jr and Malik Beasley. We like this game OVER the total.

ASA NBA play on UNDER 223.5 NY Knicks at Boston Celtics, 7:30 PM ET - Last year these two teams opened the season off with an Under and 212 total points on opening night. That really doesn’t have anything to do with tonight’s wager, but here’s what does. These two teams were both top 11 in defensive efficiency with the Celtics 3rd, allowing 1.078-points per possession, the Knicks ranked 11th at 1.104PP allowed. The other key factor here is pace of play. The Knicks were the slowest paced team in the league last season at 95.2 possessions per game. Contrary to what you might think, the Celtics were also slower paced at 97.1 possessions per game which ranked 7th slowest. If the preseason is any indication of what New York plans to do this season we can expect great defense tonight. The Knicks held 4 of five opponents to 110 or less points in the preseason. The Celtics also showed their defensive prowess in the exhibition season allowing 111 or less in 4 of five games. With the Celtics coming off a Championship they may be slow to start tonight. The Knicks have several new pieces and it could take time for the starters to jell. In this opening night game we like UNDER the total.

#475/476 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 49 Points – Baltimore Ravens vs Tampa Bay Bucs, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - Offense should rule the day (actually night) for this one. These are 2 of the 7 teams in the NFL that are averaging more than 6 YPP with Baltimore leading the league at 6.9. On the other side of the ball, these teams have long had reputations of solid defenses but that is not the case this season. They are both average at best this year with the Bucs ranking 26th in total defense (15th in YPP allowed) while the Ravens are 16th in total defense (23rd in YPP allowed). They each have been susceptible to big plays allowing 8 plays per game of more than 15 yards (tied for 31st out of 32 teams). That’s not a good recipe vs these offenses that have been very explosive. Baltimore is averaging 10 plays every game of more than 15 yards (1st in the NFL) and TB is averaging 8 plays of more than 15 yards (3rd). Both have been excellent on 3rd downs keeping drives alive with the Ravens converting on 3rd down 51% of the time (tops in the NFL) and TB converting 47% (4th). On the other side of the ball, the defenses rank 18th and 21st preventing 3rd down conversions. Baltimore has put up 30, 41, 35, and 28 points in their last 4 games. Tampa has scored at least 30 points in 3 straight games and in 4 of their 6 games this season. The average total points scored in Baltimore games this season is 54.3 (highest in the NFL) and Tampa Bay’s games have averaged 53.2 total points (3rd). The weather looks great in Tampa on Monday night with light winds and temps in the low 70’s. We like both teams to get to at least 24 points and Over is the play.

ASA WNBA play on NY Liberty -5.5 vs. Minnesota Lynx, Game 5 Sunday Oct 20th - In game 1 the Liberty obviously were the much better team for 35 minutes of game 1 and led by as many as 18-points and then lost. In Game 2 at home the Liberty bounced back and won by 14-points. These teams then split two close games in Games 3&4 with both being decided by 1-basket in each. Now back home we like the Liberty to earn the Championship and win by margin. New York was 2nd in both offensive & defensive rebounds per game during the regular season and have continued to dominate the glass in the postseason. The Liberty have outrebounded their opponents in every playoff game including the Finals against this Lynx team. Minnesota in comparison is last in rebounding percentage in the playoffs. The Liberty were 16-4 SU at home during the regular season with an average +/- of +7.0PPG. NY is 5-1 SU at home in the postseason with a +8.3PPG differential. Home teams in the WNBA Finals in this situation off a loss have historically been very good ATS. New York is 8-1 SU this season when coming off a loss. Lay it here with NY.

#401/402 ASA TOP PLAY ON OVER 57 Points – Georgia vs Texas, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - We anticipate both teams getting to at least 30 points here so we’ll roll with the Over. Texas has now scored at least 30 points in 18 of their last 20 games while UGA has put up at least 30 on the scoreboard in 20 of their last 24 games. Both offenses are in the top 20 in YPP and they both love air it out with UGA ranking 9th nationally in YPG passing and Texas ranking 11th. The QB’s in this one are high level with UGA’s Beck and the Horn’s Ewers ranking as 2 of the top 5 signal callers in next year’s draft. Defensively Georgia has fallen off rather drastically from recent editions. The Dogs currently rank 39th in total defense and 67th in YPP allowed (FBS opponents only). They have already allowed 2 opponents to top 30 points this season including last weekend vs a Mississippi State offense that entered the game ranked 99th in scoring at just 20 PPG (they put up 31 on UGA). Prior to this season, the Bulldog defense had allowed only 2 opponents to top 30 points since the start of the 2021 season. Quite a drastic drop off this year. They allowed 41 @ Alabama this season and the Texas offense is better than the Tide so the Horns should have plenty of success here. The Longhorn defense ranks #1 nationally in total defense but they’ve played NOBODY with an offensive pulse this season. The best offense they’ve faced this far is UTSA (ranked 71st in total offense) and the average rating of the offenses they’ve faced is 100th (total offense). This spot is very similar to last weekend when Ohio State entered their game vs Oregon as the #1 ranked defense nationally but had played a very weak schedule of offenses as well (98th for an average). The Ducks put up 30+ points on that #1 defense last week. We see a similar outcome here. Weather looks perfect in Austin on Saturday night and this is a have to “keep up” offensively game in our opinion. High scoring.

#409 ASA PLAY ON Auburn +4 over Missouri, Saturday at 12 PM ET - Missouri is 5-1 on the season and ranked in the top 20.  Auburn is 2-4 on the season yet this line is only Mizzou -4.5 at home?  The Auburn Tigers are much better than their record this season.  Despite being 2 games under .500, Auburn has outgained their opponents by an average of +107 YPG and they have a +2.3 YPP margin.  That’s facing a very tough schedule to date (36th SOS) having already played Georgia, Oklahoma, and Arkansas.  The problem with Auburn has been turnovers.  They are already -11 turnovers on the season which is dead last in the country.  If they can rectify that, this team is really quite good.  They rank in the top 35 nationally in both total offense and total defense.  Missouri has played a light weight schedule this season.  Their strength of schedule is ranked 111th which is the 2nd easiest at the Power 4 level ahead of only Indiana.  They’ve faced only 1 team this season power rated inside our top 50 and that was Texas A&M who rolled Missouri 41-10 outgaining the Tigers 512 to 254.  The only other 2 teams with a pulse that Mizzou has faced this year were home games vs Vandy (Tigers won in OT) and Boston College (Tigers won by 6).  Despite playing an ultra easy schedule, Missouri is just +1.1 YPP margin which is far worse than Auburn’s who has faced a much more difficult slate.  Auburn is coming off a bye week and they’ve won all 3 meetings vs Missouri.  If Auburn can keep their turnovers in check, they’ll have a great shot to win this game outright. 

ASA WNBA top play on 10* UNDER 159.5 NY Liberty at Minnesota Lynx, Game 4 Friday 8 PM ET - We are going to stay with the Under in Game 4 of this series after cashing that bet in Game 3. In Game 1 these two teams totaled 166 total points in regulation, but the Lynx shot well above expectations. The number of field goal attempts in regulation (140 FGA) were only slightly higher than the regular season average of 136. In Game 2 these two teams combined for 121 FGA’s, well below standard, which resulted in 146 total points. In G3 there were 136 field goal attempts (league average) and despite above average shooting from beyond the arc (Liberty 40%, Lynx 43%) the game stayed Under. In fact, In the 4Q of the game, one or both failed to reach 20 points. Let’s not forget these two teams are two of the best three in the league defensively and are both #1 when playing road (NY) and home (Lynx). New York has a defensive net rating on the road of 94.7 (1st), while the Lynx have a home defensive net rating of 90.9 (1st). In two meetings on this court these two teams have produced 157 and 151 total points. We expect both defenses to dominate in a slower paced game and expect this one to stay well Under the number.

#967 ASA PLAY ON Los Angeles Dodgers -135 over New York Mets, Friday at 5:08 PM ET - The Dodgers can punch their ticket to the World Series with a win here and we fully expect that. David Peterson is likely to start for the Mets on the mound here and he already struggled in this series and also has not pitched more than 3 innings in over 3 weeks - back in the regular season. The other pitcher for the Mets that is expected to work some bulk innings as well in this one is Kodai Senga. He, like Peterson, also struggled against the Dodgers in that same game earlier in this series.  4 walks and 2 hits and that was in 1.1 innings. In addition to Senga and Peterson struggling, the Mets bullpen has had plenty of issues in this series as well.  With the way the Dodgers are swinging the bats, we just can't see the New York lineup doing enough to stay alive in this series. The Dodgers also have the pitching edge here with Jack Flaherty getting the start plus their bullpen has been the better pen.  Flaherty went 8-3 with a 2.94 ERA on the road this season.  Also, he was fantastic against the Mets in the first game of this series with just 2 hits allowed in 7 scoreless innings while striking out 6! Considering all of the above, excellent line value with the road favorites here. Lay it with the Dodgers!

#962 ASA PLAY ON Cleveland Guardians +100 over New York Yankees, Thursday at 5:08 PM ET - Matthew Boyd has not worked deep but he has pitched well so far in this post-season.  The Guardians southpaw struck out 10 in 6.2 shutout innings in his two appearances versus the Tigers in their ALDS match-up.  Behind him is a strong Cleveland bullpen and we like the value here with a Guardians club in what is essentially a must-win situation in this one at home.  The Yankees are already up 2-0 in this series but are starting Clarke Schmidt here and he has allowed 9 earned runs in 14 innings over his last three starts - 1 post-season and 2 regular season. Also, he did walk 5 in 5 innings in his lone outing at Cleveland this season.  He has now allowed 5 earned runs in 6 innings in his 3 post-season road outings in his career.  The Guardians are a perfect 6-0 L6 times when they are off 2 or more consecutive losses.  Certainly we like that stat here and especially with Cleveland at home for this one  as well. The Yankees have won 4 straight games but have not had a 5-game winning streak since July and, until now, that was the only time they have had a winning streak of more than  3 games since the All-Star break!  Considering all of the above, excellent line value with the hosts here. Take the Guardians!

#23/24 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 6.5 Goals - Boston Bruins at Colorado Avalanche, Wednesday at 9:30 PM ET - Avalanche games are not only 3-0 to the over already this season, the games averaged 10 goals apiece!  Even if you eliminate empty net goals from the equation, all 3 games totaled at least 7 goals and averaged 9 goals apiece!  The Avalanche have had to pull starting goalie Georgiev in 2 of the 3 starts.  His replacement Annunen allowed 4 goals in 52 minutes of combined ice time in those 2 appearances.  Georgiev has a 6.58 GAA in his 3 starts this season!  The concerning thing for the Avalanche is that they were in a desperate situation on home ice in the most recent game as they had started the season 0-2 plus had just lost their home opener and yet they still struggled badly.  In fact, Colorado allowed 37 shots on goal in that game and got trounced 6-2 by the Islanders.  Overall, though scoring just 2 in the most recent loss, the Avalanche have been solid in the offensive zone, including on the power play, but they have been dreadful on the penalty kill and in terms of goaltending too.  Now they face a Bruins team that will be looking to respond off a 4-3 loss to Florida.  Trouble for Boston is that the 4-3 defeat was the 3rd time in 4 games this season that they have allowed at least 4 goals.   Korpisalo allowed 6 goals in his only start and Swayman allowed 4 goals in 2 of his 3 starts!  Boston, like Colorado, has been quite consistent offensively.  However, also like the Avalanche, the Bruins have been having some trouble keeping the puck out of their own net!  3 of 4 Bruins games have totaled at least 7 goals and those 3 games averaged 9 goals apiece.  Our computer math model shows the highest probability of 8 to 9 goals here and we agree with the model in this one!  Look for at least 7 in this one!  Over is the play here.

ASA WNBA top play on 10* UNDER 160.5 NY Liberty at Minnesota Lynx, Game 3 Wednesday 8 PM ET - Both of these teams will not get into the 80’s in this game and our model is projecting just 157 total points being scored. In Game 1 these two teams totaled 166 total points in regulation, but the Lynx shot well above expectations. The number of field goal attempts in regulation (140 FGA) were only slightly higher than the regular season average of 136. In Game 2 these two teams combined for 121 FGA’s, well below standard, which resulted in 146 total points. Let’s not forget these two teams are two of the best three in the league defensively and are both #1 when playing road (NY) and home (Lynx). New York has a defensive net rating on the road of 94.7 (1st), while the Lynx have a home defensive net rating of 90.9 (1st). When these two teams met on this court earlier this season they combined for 151 total points. We expect both defenses to dominate in a slower paced game and expect this one to stay well Under the number.

ASA play on NY Jets +1 vs. Buffalo Bills, Monday 8:20 PM ET - One of the bigger public Sports Books is carrying this line as the Bills favored by 1-point with an overwhelming number of bets and “Joe’s” money on Buffalo. When we see that we immediately look at the other side of the ticket. Buffalo is in a tough spot here playing their 3rd straight road game after facing the Ravens and Texans on the road. The Bills lost both of those games after starting the season 3-0 against subpar competition. We are betting the Jets will get a bump this week with the coaching change as Saleh wasn’t well liked in the locker room and new coach Jeff Ulbrich is. They should also be better offensively with a new play caller Todd Downing takes over for Nathaniel Hackett. We have seen a regression in the Bills offense the past two weeks facing solid defenses similar to the Jets. Buffalo’s offense could be limited tonight with WR Shakir and RB Cook both listed as questionable. The Jets have not run the ball effectively with RB Hall this season ranking last in the league in RYPG but that could change tonight versus a banged-up Bills defense that is 25th in rushing YPG allowed and 32nd in yards per rush allowed at 5.2. The home team has won 5 straight in this series, make it 6 after tonight.

#953/954 ASA PLAY ON Over 7.5 Runs - Cleveland Guardians at New York Yankees, Monday at 7:38 PM ET - The Yankees should pound Alex Cobb here. The Guardians right-hander only lasted 3 innings in his only post-season start and he allowed 2 earned runs in that one.  He missed much of this season with injury and he only made 3 starts in the regular season.  He also struggled badly in the lone road start in the bunch.  Also, in 2021 and 2022 and 2023 Cobb had a much higher ERA on the road than at home all 3 seasons!  The Yankees should get to him right away in this start and he is again unlikely to pitch deep as a result.  The Yankees will indeed need to score well here because all signs point to Carlos Rodon having some struggles in this one against this Cleveland lineup.  The Yankees southpaw struggled in his only post-season outing so far this year and Rodon struggled in his only post-season start a few years ago with the White Sox as well and did not make it out of the 3rd inning.  There is a lot of pressure on him here in the Bronx and the prior ugly post-season experiences do not help matters.  We expect that to get to him and the Guardians should give him plenty of trouble. Cleveland is off B2B wins in which they averaged 6 runs apiece. The Yankees last 3 games stayed under the total but this was on the heels of a stretch in which 8 of last 9 Yankees games dating back to the regular season have totaled 8 or more runs and 7 of those 8 reached a total of 10 or more runs!  We expect a similar result here. Per our computer math, the highest probability in this one is for a range of 9 to 10 runs here.  Over is the call in this one Monday evening.

#263 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Jacksonville Jaguars +1 over Chicago Bears, Sunday at 9:30 AM ET - This game is being played at Tottenham Stadium on London.  The Jags are more than familiar with playing in London as they’ve already been their 11 times (6-5 SU record).  In fact, they face Chicago on Sunday, then stay in London to play New England next week as well.  We like the been there, done that, situation for Jacksonville vs a young Chicago team making their first trip overseas since 2019.  The Bears are 3-2 on the season but a bit of a fraud in our opinion.  Their wins have come vs Tennessee, LA Rams, and Carolina who have a combined record of 3-11 and Chicago was outgained in 2 of those wins.  As you might expect based on those wins, the Bears have played one of the easiest strength of schedules to date (30th) yet they are still getting outgained by 0.6 YPP (3rd worst in the NFL).  They’ve only outgained 1 opponent on a YPP basis this season and that was Carolina rates as one of the worst few teams in the NFL.  Jacksonville was considered by many a playoff caliber team entering the season.  They have disappointed with a 1-4 record, however they have a better YPP margin than the Bears and have played the much more difficult schedule thus far.  Three of their four losses have coming by 5 points or less and they have some momentum heading overseas after beating the Colts last Sunday.  The offense, which ranks 11th in YPP, looked better than it has all season in that win putting up 37 points on nearly 500 yards.  Head coach Doug Pederson took over play calling duties for that one and it showed on the field.  The Bears offense is averaging only 287 YPG and 4.4 YPP which is 29th in the league.  The Jags should control the trenches here with their +0.9 YPC margin vs Chicago’s -0.7 YPC margin.  QB Trevor Lawrence finally had a breakout game last Sunday with 370 yards passing giving him some much needed confidence heading into this one.  Our power ratings have Jacksonville as a small favorite here so we’ll grab the points with the Jags.

#124 ASA PLAY ON West Virginia +3.5 over Iowa State, Saturday at 8 PM ET - This is a perfect spot for overvalued vs undervalued in our opinion. WVU is 3-2 on the season with losses vs Penn State and Pitt who have a combined record of 10-0. The Mountaineers weren’t overly competitive in week 1 vs PSU which is understandable vs a top 5 team. They blew a 10 point lead with less than 4 minutes remaining vs Pitt so this WVU team could easily be 4-1. ISU steps in with an undefeated record but they’ve played a much easier schedule. Their best win was 20-19 vs in-state rival Iowa, a game that ISU never led until their game winning FG with 6 seconds left in the contest. Their other wins have come vs North Dakota, Arkansas State, Baylor (2-4 record), and Houston (2-4 record). The Cyclones are stepping up in class here and laying a full FG on the road. WVU has some solid momentum and should be fairly rested here as they roasted Oklahoma State 38-14 on the road last week and the Mountaineers were coming off a bye for that one. They absolutely dominated the Cowboys outgained them 558 to 227, including 389 to 36 on the ground. Speaking of the ground, West Virginia has one of the best rushing attacks in the country averaging 239 YPG on 6.0 YPC. They should control the ground game vs an Iowa State defense that allowed 155 YPG rushing on 5.0 YPC. Dating back to early in the 2021 season, ISU has been a road favorite 9 times and they have a 3-6 ATS & SU record in those games. They are overvalued here due to their perfect mark vs a weak schedule. We like WVU to win this game at home.

#128 ASA TOP PLAY ON Pittsburgh -3 over California, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Just a terrible situational spot for the Golden Bears. This team will have a hard time getting up off the mat after blowing a huge lead at home vs Miami last week. Cal led the Canes by 20 points with just over 10 minutes remaining in game last Saturday and they lost 39-38. Miami scored 3 TD’s in the final 10:28 to get the 1 point win including the game winner with 28 seconds remaining. Now they have to make the long 2500 mile trip to Pittsburgh which will be the Bears 3rd trip to the east time zone since Sept 7th. That means this Cal team will have already traveled almost 13,000 miles in the last 5 weeks when they land in Pittsburgh for this game. Their devastating home loss vs Miami on Saturday actually wasn’t as close as the score would indicate. How the Bears pulled out to a 20 point lead is tough to comprehend as they were outgained by 205 total yards and had 18 fewer first downs. The Canes held a 15 minute time of possession edge and ran 86 offensive snaps which should lead the Cal defense running out of gas in this game, especially as the game wears on. While the Bears were blowing a huge lead at home, Pitt went into North Carolina and won 34-24 outgaining the Heels by over 100 yards. They won by 10 despite the Tar Heels scoring on an 86 yard pick 6 which was potentially a 14 point turnaround with Pitt going into score. The Panthers are now 5-0 with solid wins over UNC, West Virginia, and Cincinnati. It’s not a fluke the Panthers are undefeated as their stats have been dominant. On the season they are +20 PPG, +152 YPG, +2.3 YPP, and +2.9 yards per rush. Cal is 3-2 on the season and in those stats they are +8 PPG, +28 YPG, +0.7 YPP, and +0.2 yards per rush. One of their long road trips was a loss @ a bad Florida State team giving the Noles their only win so far this season. Pitt is at home and is full focused heading into a bye week. Easy win for the Panthers in this one.

#919 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Diego Padres +120 over Los Angeles Dodgers, Friday at 8:08 PM ET - Action on pitchers. The Padres are expected to go with Yu Darvish while the Dodgers are expected to go with Yoshinobu Yamamoto. San Diego's Darvish gave up only 1 earned run on 3 hits in 7 innings in his start against them in this series.  He has now given up only 4 earned runs in 22.2 innings his last 4 outings against LA.  Also, that dominant post-season outing against the Dodgers was in Los Angeles.  We expect another gem here while we also certainly feel Yamamoto can not be trusted in this spot.  This is a high-pressure spot and the Dodgers right-hander (in his first season in MLB) does not have the level of MLB experience that Darvish (long-time MLB veteran) has.  Also, Yamamoto allowed 5 earned runs in 3 innings when he faced the Padres in Game 1 of this series.  He also allowed 8 earned runs in 6 innings against them in the regular season.  The Dodgers are favored here because they are at home but San Diego had the best record in MLB after the All-Star break and also is 17-4 the last 21 times they have entered a game off a loss.  Grab the underdog value here with the Padres and look for them to bounce back off the ugly Game 4 loss. Considering all of the above, this is solid underdog line value here with the road team. Take San Diego!

#105/106 ASA PLAY ON Over 48.5 Points – San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - These 2 have combined to play 10 games this season with 7 of them going Over the total.  Both offenses are the strengths of these teams right now.  SF’s defense has been subpar all season allowing 5.6 YPP (20th in the NFL) and just over 21 PPG.  If we subtract their games vs the Patriots (31st in scoring) and the Jets (24th in scoring) the Niners are allowing 25 PPG.  They’ve actually faced 3 offenses ranked outside the top 24 in scoring if we add in the Rams who put up 27 on this defense.  Seattle will be the best offense they’ve faced both YPG (7th) and PPG (11th).  The Seattle defense is in a similar situation.  They’ve allowed 22.8 PPG (17th) yet they’ve played a number of weak offenses.  Four of their five opponents rank 22nd or lower in scoring this season (Miami, New England, NYG, and Denver) yet they are still allowing almost 23 PPG.  Now they face a SF offense that ranks 2nd in YPG and YPP and 10th in scoring.  In their last 2 games alone, the Seattle defense has allowed 7.8 YPP vs Detroit and 6.0 YPP vs the NY Giants.  They are trending in the wrong direction right now.  The Seahawks offense had an off performance last week vs the Giants which could have been due to their short week (played on Monday night @ Detroit) and long travel situation.  Even with that performance, they still rank in the top 11 in the NFL in scoring, YPG, and YPP on offense.  It’s always smart to check the weather in Seattle as it can be sketchy however Thursday night looks great no precipitation and light winds.  Both offenses are off below average performances last week and we expect each to bounce back and plenty of scoring on Thursday night.  Take the Over.

ASA WNBA play on NY Liberty -6 vs. Minnesota Lynx, Game 1 Thursday Oct 10th - Scheduling clearly favors the Liberty here who have been off for a week, while the Lynx will be playing their 3rd game this week. One thing we’ve learned this WNBA season is that depth is a huge concern for the majority of the teams in the league. It will be tough for Minnesota to get up again after their grueling 5-game series with the Sun. A demoralizing factor in this game will be the rebounding advantage the Liberty have. New York was 2nd in both offensive & defensive rebounds per game during the regular season and have continued to dominate the glass in the postseason. The Liberty have outrebounded their opponents in every playoff game and will limit the Lynx second chance opportunities. Minnesota in comparison is last in rebounding percentage in the playoffs. New York has been really good at home and has won by margin. The Liberty were 16-4 SU at home during the regular season with an average +/- of +7.0PPG. NY is 4-0 SU at home in the postseason with a +9.3PPG differential. Minnesota has beaten the Liberty 3 of four this season but this is simply a bad scheduling situation for them and will be tough to hang within double-digits.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 152.5 Connecticut Sun at Minnesota Lynx Tues, 8 PM ET - We were on the Under in Game 4 and lost. It’s interesting that Game 4 goes Over the number by 20 points and the oddsmakers lowered the number for tonight’s game from 153.5 to 151.5. We are betting on a regression from the last two games and expect total points in the high 140’s. In the first two games these teams combined for 143 and 147 total points. In G3 the Lynx went off for 90 and the game ended with 171. But the Lynx shot a ridiculous 57% overall, well above their season average of 45.4% and well above what the Sun allowed of 43.4%. In Game 4 these two teams attempted just 126 field goals, well below the season average of 136. The Sun shot ridiculously well at 54% overall and 53% from Deep. Minnesota hit 47% overall and 38% from beyond the arc. Expect those numbers to come back to a more normal level here, especially considering these two teams are two of the best defensive teams in the W. Connecticut was 1st in Defensive Net Rating this season at 94.1. The Lynx were 2nd at 94.8. The Sun allow the fewest PPG at 73.6, the Lynx give up just 75.8PPG, the 2nd best number in the league. With this being an elimination game, we like both defenses to shine and the offenses to struggle. With another slower pace expected this game does not reach 150+.

ASA PLAY ON New Orleans Saints +5.5 over Kansas City Chiefs, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - Chiefs are undefeated but their point differential is just +20 (7th in the NFL). All 4 of their wins this season have come by a TD or less. KC has won 8 of last 9 dating back to last season but 7 of those 8 wins have been one score games so they are not pulling away from teams in their wins. KC’s overall stats are pretty darn average for a team that is 4-0. They are 15th in YPP margin at +0.2 and have outgained opponents overall by just +2 YPG. On top of that, the Chiefs have LOTS of injuries on offense missing their top RB as well as their top 3 WR’s entering the season. The Saints are now 2-2 so this is a bigger game for them. Their 2 wins were both blowouts, but their losses were each down to the wire losing by 3 vs Philly and by 2 vs Atlanta. In their 26-24 loss @ Atlanta last week, New Orleans outgained the Falcons but the Birds had 2 defensive TD’s in the game. Despite their 2-2 record, New Orleans has outgained 3 of their 4 opponents and they have a better YPP margin when compared to the Chiefs. The Saints have been a long term money maker on the road going 35-18 ATS away from home over the last 6+ seasons. Lastly, in MNF games when an AFC team faces an NFC team, the home teams have been terrible with a spread record of just 12-32-2 ATS (27.3%). We give the Saints a decent shot at the upset here but worst case we like them to keep this close.

#473/474 ASA PLAY ON UNDER 44 Points - Dallas Cowboys at Pittsburgh Steelers, Sunday 8:20 PM ET - The oddsmakers were right on this opening number of 41, but money came in on the Over and drove this O/U to 44, above key numbers of 41 and 42. These two offenses are pedestrian and lack explosiveness with the Steelers ranking 21st in YPP at 4.9, the Cowboys are 18th at 5.4-yards per play. Dallas does rank 9th in yards per point scored at 13.6, but the Steelers offset that with their yards per point offense which ranks 25th. The Steelers defense is 4th in the NFL in total yards allowed 6th in YPP defense at 5.1, hold opponents to 3.7 rushing yards per attempt and give up just 13.2PPG. Dallas has offensive weapons, but they struggle to run the football, ranking last in the league at 75.2 rushing YPG on the season at 3.5-yards per attempt. Dallas has some poor defensive statistics this season, but they’ve also faced the Saints who lead the league in scoring at 31.8PPG and the Ravens who are 5th at 26.5PPG. This Steelers offense is scoring just 18.8PPG and relies heavily on the running game which is 3rd in attempts this season. There is potentially rain/wind in Pittsburgh Sunday night which will certainly help our cause and Under bet.

ASA play on UNDER 153.5 Minnesota Lynx at Connecticut Sun, 5 PM ET - First off, another boneheaded move by the WNBA execs who would schedule these playoff games on NFL Sunday. OK, well on to this game and how we see it shaping up. We are betting on a regression from the last game and expect total points in the high 140’s. In the first two games these teams combined for 143 and 147 total points. In G3 the Lynx went off for 90 and the game ended with 171. But the Lynx shot a ridiculous 57% overall, well above their season average of 45.4% and well above what the Sun allowed of 43.4%. Expect those numbers to come back to a more normal level here, especially considering the Sun are one of the best defensive teams in the W. Connecticut was 1st in Defensive Net Rating this season at 94.1. The Lynx were 2nd at 94.8. The Sun allow the fewest PPG at 73.6, the Lynx give up just 75.8PPG, the 2nd best number in the league. In Game 3 these two teams played at a below average pace with 134 FGA’s (league average 136). The Sun have stayed Under the total in 4 of their last five at home and off that home loss we like them to ratchet up their defense in this one and the Lynx are always good on that end of the court. The bet here is UNDER.

#469 ASA PLAY ON Green Bay Packers -3 over LA Rams, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - The Rams are really banged up right now and it shows in their performances this season.  They will again be without their top 2 WR’s Cupp & Nakua and their offensive still has issues.  Partly due to that, their offense has struggled scoring just 18.8 PPG while only averaging 5.2 YPP.  That’s not good when your defense can’t stop anyone.  LA ranks dead last in the NFL allowing 6.4 YPP and dead last in rushing defense giving up 165 YPG on the ground on 5.0 YPC.  That’s not a good recipe for success especially in this game vs a Green Bay offense that is averaging 175 YPG rushing which is 2nd in the league.  The Packers struggle offensively to start last week’s game which was expected at QB Love was back but had missed a few weeks prior.  However, in the 2nd half GB kicked it in gear and nearly won in a game they trailed 28-7 at half (31-29 final).  Once Love and the offense got comfortable and back in synch they tallied over 300 yards in the 2nd half alone.  We think they’ll pick up where they left off vs this suspect Rams defense.  LA is just not playing well right now.  They rank 31st in YPP differential ahead of only New England and they have been outgained in 3 of their 4 games this season.  The only team they outgained in the stats was Chicago last week which wasn’t a surprise as the Bears rank last in the NFL in YPP offense.  We like Green Bay to win this one by more than a FG.

#392 ASA TOP PLAY ON Washington -120 ON THE MONEY LINE over Michigan, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - We’re playing Washington ON THE MONEY LINE here to just win the game straight up.  Michigan is ranked in the top 10 (undeservedly so) and they are an underdog here vs a team that has a 3-2 record and is unranked?  Hmmm?  We feel pretty strongly that despite their record, Washington is the better team in this match up.  The Huskies lost last week @ Rutgers (we were on UW) despite completely dominating the game outgaining the Knights 521 to 299 (7.9 YPP to 4.4 YPP).  In both of their losses vs Rutgers and Washington State, the Huskies dominated the stat sheet and in fact they’ve outgained every opponent this season.  Their YPG margin is +220 and they have a +3.1 YPP differential.  They rank in the top 20 nationally in both total offense and total defense.  Simply not the numbers of a 2 loss team.  If UW was undefeated entering this game, which they probably should be, we are looking at a higher number.  Michigan is 4-1 this season but they are getting OUTGAINED by 7 YPG.  They barely held on at home last week 27-24 vs a pretty average Minnesota team but the Wolverines were outgained by 55 yards in that win.  The Wolverines have struggled to beat teams at home this year and now they take the road for the first time (long travel).  They have almost zero passing game averaging only 115 YPG through the air (130th) and it’s actually gotten worse since Orgi took over at QB.  In his 2 starts vs USC and Minnesota, Orgi has a total of 118 yards passing.  This team is very one dimensional and they are facing a defense that ranks 8th nationally allowing only 4.1 YPP.  Not a good recipe for offensive success.  UW has a massive edge on offense (20th in total offense to 116th for Michigan) and at QB with Will Rogers who has almost 14,000 careers passing yards and 104 TD’s.  Different head coaches and many new players for each team, however we still anticipate a little extra motivation for Washington after losing to Michigan in last year’s National Championship game.  The Huskies take this one at home.

SUN BELT CONFERENCE (SBC) GAME OF THE MONTH: #387 ASA PLAY ON South Alabama -3 over Arkansas State, Saturday at 7 PM ET - Arkansas State has the better record at 2-2 while South Alabama sits at 2-3 yet we feel the Jaguars are the much better team in this match up.  Arkie State could easily be 0-4 on the season as their wins over Central Arkansas and Tulsa by 3 & 4 points respectively.  The Red Wolves were outgained 7.1 YPP to 5.0 YPP vs FCS Central Arkansas and 5.9 YPP to 5.3 YPP vs Tulsa.  They were extremely fortunate to come out with 2 wins in those games.  On the season Arkansas State had a YPG margin of -120, a YPP margin of -2.2 and a YPC (rushing) margin of -3.2.  Compare that to South Alabama who has a YPG margin of +21, a YPP margin of +0.4, and a YPC margin of +1.7.  The Jaguars should have a massive edge on the ground in this game 210 YPG rushing on 6.2 YPC vs a Arkansas State defense 234 yards on the ground (129th) on 6.0 YPC (131st).  The Wolves have been outgained by at least 1.8 YPC in all 4 of their games this season.  The South Alabama offense is potent and we don’t see ASU keeping up here.  They rank 19th nationally in total offense (470 YPG) and 21st putting up 7.1 YPP.  ASU ranks 104th and 125th in those 2 stats.  On top of that, we don’t see the Arkansas State defense making up for their offensive deficiencies here as they rank outside the top 100 in total defense and YPP allowed.  South Alabama has won 5 straight in this series and last year they were favored by 15.5 so getting them at -3 here is a bargain.  The Jags already proved they can get it done on the road beating App State 48-14 a few weeks ago and we have App State rated as a better team that Arkansas State.  Let’s lay this small number with South Alabama.

ASA WNBA play on OVER 164 New York Liberty at Las Vegas Aces – Game 3 Friday 9:30 PM ET - This O/U number has steadily crept up from Game 1 which started at 162.5 but the Game 3 number hasn’t been adjusted high enough according to our model. In the opener of this series these two teams combined for 164 total points. In Game 2 they finished with 172. In G1 these two teams combined for an abnormally low number of field goal attempts at 126 (league ave. this season was 136) and still managed 164 total points. In Game 2 we saw the pace of play tick up with the two teams combining for 136 FGA’s. With the Aces down 0-2 in the series they will want to do what they do best at home, play fast and transition basketball. The Aces were the 2nd fastest team in the league when playing at home and the Liberty were 4th fastest on the road. These were two of the most efficient offensive teams in the league and ranked 1st and 2nd in Offensive Net rating. They were 2nd (Aces) and 3rd (Liberty) in EFG%. The last ten meetings between these two teams on this court have averaged 174.6ppg. We expect a high scoring game here and are on the Over.

ASA play on Connecticut Sun (Moneyline -135) vs Minnesota Lynx – Game 3 Friday 7:30 PM ET - This is a tough one for me as I’ve liked Minnesota all season long and felt they were the ‘sneaky’ best team in the league. But Connecticut seems to have the Lynx number, and it starts with their defense on Napheesa Collier. Collier is 5th in the league in scoring at 20.4PPG but the Sun have held her to 19 and 9-points in the two games of this series. The Sun have won 7 of the last ten meetings with the Lynx. In Game 1 of this series, the Sun shot well at 45% overall and 35% from Deep. In Game 2 the Sun struggled from the field hitting just 36% and 25%. I am betting there will be a positive shooting regression for the Sun at home where they shot 44% overall and 33% from beyond the arc on the season. Not only that, but this Sun team is one of the best defensive teams in the W and the Lynx shot 45% from the field and 42% from the 3-point line. Connecticut had the best overall Defensive Net rating on the season which propelled them to an average +/- of +8PPG at home this season.

WNBA play on Minnesota -4 vs. Connecticut Tuesday, 9:30 PM ET - Off the home loss in Game 1, we like the Lynx to bounce back in Game 2 and even this series at 1-1. After two monster scoring games of 38, 42-points against the Mercury in the first round, Napheesa Collier, struggled in G1 versus the Sun with 19-points. As a team the Lynx struggled shooting at 42% overall and just 25% from beyond the arc. Those numbers are significantly lower than their season averages of 44.8% overall and 38% from Deep (1st in WNBA). Granted, this Sun is a very good defensive team and that has something to do with the poor shooting night but you can bet there is an upward regression for the Lynx shooting in Game 2. The Sun also had an unusual great shooting night themselves in G1 by hitting 41% of their 3-pointers. They shoot just 32.7% on the season and the Lynx held opponents to 30.1%, best percentage in the W. Minnesota is 16-5 SU their last 21 home games with an average margin of victory of +7.5PPG. Minnesota is 23-8 SU their last 31 at home and have lost back-to-back games just twice this season.

#939/940 ASA PLAY ON Under 6.5 Runs – Detroit Tigers at Houston Astros, Tuesday at 2:32 PM ET - The Astros Framber Valdez squaring off against the Tigers Tarik Skubal sets this one up for a classic pitchers duel.  Valdez is 9-2 with a 2.53 ERA at home this season!  Also, Valdez compiled a 1.65 ERA over the final two months of the regular season and allowed only 33 hits in 60 innings!  As for the Tigers Skubal, he went 18-4 on the season including 8-1 with a 2.37 ERA after the All-Star break!  Also, Skubal went undefeated with a 1.52 ERA in his 4 starts in the month of September.  Both hurlers come into this one in top form and each of them are capable of throwing an absolute gem here.  These two bullpens both rank in the top 4 in the American League this season.  The Tigers hit just .222 their final 6 games of the season.  The Astros, due to scheduling plus one rainout too, have played only 2 games the last 5 days.  This will not help their timing at the plate either and in particular this is true when facing a tough southpaw like Skubal!  This is playoff baseball now and per all of the above this one will, in all likelihood, be a tight low-scoring battle! Our computer math model projecting 4 to 5 runs here and even if it gets to 6 that is still a winning ticket for us. We are going with the Under in this one.

#292 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Detroit Lions -3.5 over Seattle Seahawks, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - Seattle comes into this game with a 3-0 record be we feel they are vastly overvalued early in the season.  They’ve played 3 cupcake games thus far and now are finally on the road vs a legit playoff type team.  They’ve played Denver with a rookie QB making his first ever start, @ New England (won in OT), and then vs Miami with Skylar Thompson at QB.  Their overall numbers, especially on defense, are not as good as they may seem.  Seattle ranks #1 vs the pass but again they’ve faced Bo Nix, Jacoby Brissett and Skylar Thompson.  Now they face Jared Goff at home where he has won 13 of his last 16 games and his home stats have been fantastic (70% completion rate last year with 19 TD’s).  In their only road game, Seattle struggled to slow down New England’s running game (185 yards on 5.1 YPC) and now they face a Detroit rushing attack that rates 4th in the NFL at 163 YPG.  Seattle is also really banged up on defense with potentially 4 starters out for this game and a few more in the 2 deep will have to sit as well.  One of Goff’s rare home losses was last year vs this Seattle team.  Detroit outplayed the Hawks averaging more YPP, YPC, and yards per pass attempts but lost in OT.  The Lions turned the ball over 3 times in that OT loss (0 for Seattle) including a pick 6 which was the difference in the game.  A little extra motivation for Detroit in this one.  The line value is solid as Detroit was favored by 5 here last year, they were favored over playoff team Tampa Bay by 7.5 just a few weeks ago and last week on the road they were -3 @ Arizona.  This is a big home game for the Lions who are 2-1 and take the road for 4 of their next 5 games.  They lead the NFL in YPG margin at +106 and if they avoid the turnover bug, we like them to win this game by at least a TD.

WNBA top play on Minnesota -4 vs. Connecticut Sun, 8:30 PM ET - If you have been following us for any length of time you’ve heard us say many times the Lynx are the best team in the league. Napheesa Collier is one of the best in the league and she clearly upped her game in the first two playoff games against the Mercury with 38 and 42-points. Those numbers come against Brittney Griner who is labeled as a defensive stopper. Minnesota is 16-4 SU their last 20 home games with an average margin of victory of +10PPG. Connecticut is coming off a series with the Fever and got a ton of media coverage with Caitlyn Clark in town. They won big in game 1 of that series and won close in game 2. That was against a Fever team that is one of the worst defensive teams in the W, Minnesota is one of the best. These two teams have near-even season statistics when it comes to Offensive & Defensive Net ratings, but we like the scheduling situation here to back the Lynx. Minnesota is 23-7 SU their last 30 at home and will benefit from the home crowd in this one. Lay it.

#288 ASA PLAY ON Baltimore Ravens -2 over Buffalo Bills, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - This is a much more important game for the Ravens who sit with a 1-2 record while the Bills have gotten off to a 3-0 start.  Baltimore has outgained each of their opponents by a combined 265 yards including topping KC by 100 yards in a week 1 loss on the road.  Their 28-25 win @ Dallas last week was a bit deceiving with the Ravens rolling out to a 28-6 lead in the 4th quarter before taking their foot off the gas.  They won’t make that mistake again as Dallas scored 3 TDs in the final 9:00 minutes to make it tighter than it should have been with Baltimore holding a 7.6 to 5.9 YPP edge in that game.  Buffalo is on the road on a short week after beating a bad Jacksonville team (0-3 record) on Monday night.  The Bills had to come from 14 points down in their opener to nip Arizona and then faced an overvalued Miami team that lost QB Tagovailoa during the game.  Buffalo is good but overvalued right now in our opinion.  The host Ravens are averaging 203 YPG rushing on a league high 5.9 YPC and they should be able to take advantage of a Buffalo defense that has allowed 4.7 YPC (22nd) and is playing without their top 2 LB’s.  When facing a mobile QB in week 1 (Arizona’s Kyler Murray) the Bills allowed 125 yards rushing on 5.0 YPC and allowed Murray to rush for over 10 YPC.  Now they face the best running QB in the league.  On the flip side, the Bills have also transitioned to a heavier rushing attack this year but they are now facing a Baltimore defense that ranks #1 in the NFL giving up just 50 rushing YPG on 2.8 YPC.  The Ravens cannot afford to drop to 1-3 with 3 of their next 4 games on the road.  Lamar Jackson is 27-4 ATS in regular season games when favored by less than 3 points or an underdog.  This is a huge home game for Baltimore and we like them to win and cover.

#127 ASA TOP PLAY ON North Carolina +2.5 over Duke, Saturday at 4 PM ET - We were on James Madison last weekend vs UNC and picked up a solid win.  We’ll switch it up this Saturday and take the Heels getting points @ Duke.  Last week’s 70-50 loss for the Tar Heels was a bit deceiving.  The yardage with JMU was basically dead even (616 to 612) but UNC lost the turnover margin at -4 (5 turnovers for UNC and 1 for JMU).  Not only that, those turnovers turned into points for as the Dukes scored TD’s on a pick 6 and a blocked punt along with 2 other UNC giveaways that also turned into 2 touchdowns.  The defense was obviously shredded but prior to last weekend that unit had played well allowing just 15.6 PPG through their first 3 games.  The defense was embarrassed last week and we look for a huge effort on that side of the ball Saturday against a Duke offense that isn’t very explosive.  The Devils rank outside the top 90 in total offense, YPP offense, and rushing offense.  Duke is 4-0 but we haven’t been overly impressed.  They struggled to beat UConn at home a few weeks ago 26-21 and they were outrushed 4.8 YPC to 3.6 YPC in that game.  Last week they faced one of the worst teams in the nation, Middle Tennessee State, and while the final score looked solid (45-17 win) they only outgained the Blue Raiders by 45 yards.  MTSU won in the trenches as well outrushing Duke 4.2 YPC to 3.5 YPC but the Raiders had 4 turnovers.  UNC head coach Mack Brown apologized to his team after last week’s loss and they’ve rallied around him this week.  We expect a big effort from the Heels.  North Carolina has dominated this series winning 28 of the last 33 meetings.  They were a dog in only 4 of those 33 match ups and covered all 4.  We like UNC to win this game outright.

#152 ASA TOP PLAY ON Kansas State -5 over Oklahoma State, Saturday at 12 PM ET - Both teams off losses last week but OSU’s was deceivingly close while KSU was the opposite.  Kansas State lost 38-9 as 7 point favorites at BYU (we were on the Cougars in that one).  Believe it or not, the Cats outgained BYU by +125 yards and outrushed them 228 to 92.  Three turnovers were a killer for KSU in that game.  The Wildcats led 6-0 with just over 2:00 minutes remaining in the first half.  4 minutes into the 2nd half (so a 6 minute span) BYU led 31-6 and had TD drives of 5, 29, 27 and 6 yards during that 6 minute span basically putting the game out of reach.  Now we get an angry Kansas State team at home that should dominate in the trenches.  They are averaging 240 yards on the ground on 6.5 YPC facing an Oklahoma State defense that ranks outside the top 100 at stopping the run.  KSU yards per carry differential (YPC offense minus YPC they allow on defense) is +3.7.  OSU’s YPC differential is -1.3 and they rank outside the top 100 both rushing on offense and stopping the run on defense as we mentioned above.  OSU looked like they gave Utah a battle last week losing 22-19.  Fact is the Cowboys were down 22-3 at home in that game with less than 6 minutes remaining.  They were outgained 457 to 285 and outrushed 250 to 48.  On top of that, Utah’s starting QB Rising didn’t play and the Utes started a freshman at QB and still dominated.  These two both have 3-1 record and have played a very similar strength of schedule, yet KSU has a YPP differential of +1.3 while OSU is -0.2.  Last time OSU visited Manhattan KS 2 years ago, they left with a 48-0 loss.  Last year the Wildcats were favored by 11.5 AT Oklahoma State and lost in a upset.  This year at home they are laying just -5 and we look for a dominating with for the home team. 

#955 ASA PLAY ON New York Mets -115 over Milwaukee Brewers, Friday at 8:10 PM ET - This is a very interesting match-up because these teams could meet right away in the post-season. However, the Mets have not even clinched a wild card spot while the Brewers have already clinched their division.  That said, and now that Milwaukee has clinched and knows they might face the Mets right away in the Wild Card round, you might even see the Brewers holding back in a sense in terms of bullpen usage, etc. As for the Mets, of course they can not hold back at all just yet.  They are still trying to clinch a post-season spot!  So don't be surprised if the Mets are a little more "dialed in" here in comparison with the Brewers.  We also like the starting pitching match-up here in terms of favoring New York.  The Mets are going with Manaea while the Brewers are going with Montas.  Manaea is 6-2 with a 2.77 ERA on the road this season. He also is 6-2 with a 3.09 ERA and holding hitters to a .173 batting average since the All-Star break.  Montas is 1-7 with a 4.97 ERA in home starts this season.  Montas has been better overall since coming to the Brewers from the Reds a few months ago but in his 3 home starts here in Milwaukee in September he has allowed 13 earned runs in 14.2 innings.  The Mets are also expected to get a boost with Francisco Lindor back in the lineup and he is hitting .271 this season with 31 homers and 86 RBI.  Per manager Pat Murphy, the Brewers are taking a "calculated" approach to this series in terms of when guys pitch and how long they pitch and the overall bullpen usage in this series.  Remember they are in the post-season already while the Mets still have work to do and this one sets up for a solid play on the road favorite here! Take the New York Mets!

ASA PLAY ON Under 8.5 in Kansas City Royals at Washington Nationals, Thursday 1:05 ET -The Royals are starting Michael Wacha and the Nationals going with Patrick Corbin here. Note that Corbin has a high ERA on the season but he often struggles badly on the road but has success at home. If you look at his last 3 home starts he has allowed a total of only 2 earned runs on just 9 hits in 18 innings of work! Corbin does it again here at home. Wacha has been strong in 9 of his last 10 starts! In those 9 outings he has allowed a total of only 13 earned runs! The Royals have lost 7 of 9 games and have averaged scoring only 1.9 runs per game during this stretch. The Nationals have lost 8 of 9 games and scored only 1.6 runs per game during this stretch. This is a match-up featuring two starting pitchers likely to produce quality starts and two lineups that are slumping badly. The Nationals have been shutout in 3 straight games in fact! We expect a pitchers duel here and some books are even dropping to an 8 on this total which tells you plenty about this one as well. The expectation is a very low-scoring battle here Thursday in early afternoon action. UNDER is the call in this one

ASA WNBA play on OVER 160.5 Phoenix Mercury at Minnesota Lynx, 9:30PM ET - This O/U number has been adjusted up slightly compared to Game 1 which had an O/U of 158.5. In that game these two teams combined for 197 total points. We don’t expect that many points again as both teams shot well above season standards with the Mercury hitting 37/74 FG’s overall at 50% and 14/27 from the 3PT line or 52%. Minnesota also had a great shooting night at 49% overall and 42% from Deep. The Lynx also made 24/25 free throws. There will be a regression here in both teams shooting, but the pace of play will be high again (143 FGA’s in G1) and they’ll score enough to go over this number. These two teams have combined for 160+ points in 4 of five meetings this season. The Mercury have an EFG% of 50.3%, the Lynx are at 51.8%. Since the Olympic break the Lynx have played outstanding basketball with a 12-2 record their last 14 games and the 2nd best Offensive Net rating in the league at 106.6. Phoenix has struggled defensively this entire season (DNR 9th worst) and their only chance to beat this Lynx team is to play up-tempo and outscore them. During the regular season, an average WNBA game would have 136 FGA’s and 164 total points. In other words, all we need is an average game here and we cash the Over.

#957/958 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 10 Runs - St Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockies, Wednesday at 8:40 PM ET - Last night's game just missed going over the total as it landed on 10 runs when the Rockies failed to score in the bottom of the 8th despite a 1st and 3rd no out situation. That game staying under likely is serving to help keep this total lower as, under normal circumstances given this pitching match-up we would have expected even more movement on this total today. It has ticked up a bit but it should have ticked up even more and there is solid value here.  Erick Fedde starts for the Cardinals here and he has struggled in his road starts and now pitches at the toughest ballpark in the league from a pitchers standpoint.  Fedde has struggled in 4 of his 5 road starts since the beginning of August.  In those 4 starts he has allowed 16 earned runs in 21.1 innings!   The Rockies will have Austin Gomber on the mound here and he has allowed 35 hits in 22.2 innings in his 5 home starts since the All-Star break.  This was on the heels of a June in which he went 0-3 with a 9.39 ERA in his 5 starts!  Since then Gomber has been better on the road but not at home as his last 5 home starts clearly show.  Now he faces a Cardinals team that has won 6 of 8 games and scored an average of 5.3 runs per game in those 6 victories.  The Cardinals have scored 6.3 runs per game in their last 4 games against the Rockies.  They have also enjoyed success against a Colorado bullpen that ranks among the worst in the majors for bullpen ERA.  The Cardinals bullpen certainly has been better than the Rockies but, again, pitching at Colorado is a whole different animal.  The St Louis pen hung on yesterday but last season here the Cardinals allowed 6 runs per game and all 3 games in that series at Coors Field totaled more than 10 runs.  The Rockies fell short yesterday but averaged 5.5 runs a game in their last dozen home games prior to that one.  Colorado's slugging percentage at home ranks 5th in the majors this season.  We like this match-up for plenty of runs tonight as favorable weather conditions are expected as well.  With no post-season for either team they are not playing with playoff pressure here and will be relaxed at the plate and we are confident both these pitchers are going to struggle given Fedde's recent road struggles and Gomber's recent home struggles.  Per our computer math, the highest probability in this one is for a range of 12 to 13 runs here.  Over is the call in this one Wednesday evening.

ASA WNBA top play on 10* OVER 159.5 Seattle Storm at Las Vegas Aces, 9:30 PM ET - We are getting a bargain price with this Over/Under number and will capitalize with a bigger play on the Over. These two teams produced just 145 total points in game 1 which has impacted today’s number and has bettors on the Under. The facts are that game should have gone Over this number rather easily. The two teams combined for 137 field goal attempts which is around league average for the entire season. WNBA games averaged 163.4 total points per game on 136.6 FGA’s. In Game 1 the Aces started very slow with A’Ja Wilson going 1 for 8 with Las Vegas missing 16 of their 18 field goal attempts. With the slow start these two teams had 80-points at halftime on their way to 160. After 3Q’s these two teams had 129 total points which had them on pace for 172. Then shit hit the fan and the Storm couldn’t buy a basket. Seattle missed all 13 FGA’s in the 4th quarter and only scored 2-points. You read that right, 2-points in an entre quarter. With this being an elimination game, the Storm won’t quietly and will foul late if needed. Seattle is the 3rd fastest paced team in the league and the Aces are 4th so we know we will get plenty of possessions in this one. Las Vegas is the 2nd best team in the WNBA in Offensive Net rating, the Storm are 7th. If this is an average paced game, with average shooting, it goes Over the number easily.

#921/922 ASA PLAY ON Under 7 Runs (+100) – Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros, Tuesday at 8:10 PM ET - Low total but this has pitchers' duel written all over it.  Logan Gilbert continues to pile up strikeouts and he also is in top form currently and this has even held true on the road.  In his last two road starts, Gilbert has allowed only 6 hits in 14 innings while striking out 19 batters!  Also, in his only start at Houston this season he allowed just 2 hits in 8 scoreless innings against the Astros!  In looking at the Astros Framber Valdez he has allowed a total of only 2 earned runs in his last 4 starts!  He has allowed 1 earned run or less in 6 of his last 7 outings!  Since the All-Star break he has been incredible with a 6-2 record and a 1.74 ERA and opponents hitting just .153 against him.  Houston is still trying to secure the division and Seattle still has hopes of a Wild Card berth as well.  There is quite a bit of pressure on both clubs in entering this one.  In other words, this will likely play out as a playoff-type game. We expect runs to be at a premium here given the pitching match-up.  Two solid bullpens involved here as well.  Seattle won yesterday's game 6-1 but that one was 1-0 entering the 7th inning.  Seattle ranks 22nd in the majors for batting average on the road.  Houston has struggled with Mariners pitching all season long and has scored an average of only 2.5 runs over the last 10 games between these teams.  We are going with the Under in this one.

ASA WNBA play on Connecticut Sun -5 vs. Indiana Fever, 3 PM ET - The Fever are young and making their first playoff appearance in 12 years. None of the players that get significant playing time have ever been in the playoffs. Connecticut is a veteran team that plays great defense and will draw a solid home crowd, with most being their fans and not Caitlyn Clarks. The Sun were 14-6 SU at home this season with an average +- of +5.1PPG. Indiana was 8-12 SU away from home with an average differential of minus -4.7PPG. This Sun team has the best Defensive Net rating in the league at 94.1 and they’ve held 16 of twenty opponents to less than 80 points at home this season. Indiana is slightly better than the Sun in Offensive Net rating but far worse defensively with the 2nd worst Defensive Net rating in the league. You win in the playoffs with defense and the Fever don’t play any. Connecticut has won 3 of four against the Fever this season and they get this series opening win by double digits.

#464 ASA PLAY ON Tennessee Titans -2.5 over Green Bay Packers, Sunday at 1 PM ET - The Titans are backed into a corner here with an 0-2 record and they are in absolute must win mode. They could easily be 2-0 as they outgained each of their first 2 opponents on a YPP basis but they are -4 in turnover margin which is why they are winless. The Titans actually sit 8th in the NFL in YPP margin ahead of this Green Bay team. The Packers starting QB Love is listed as questionable for this one but we can’t imagine they’ll take a chance a play him. He’s not 100% and the Packers have a much bigger game on deck with division rival Minnesota. Our guess is he will return for that match up next Sunday. If that’s the case GB will send Malik Willis out again this week. Last week head coach Matt LaFleur asked very little of Willis as the Packers went run heavy with 53 rushing attempts and just 14 pass attempts. That plan was successful last week vs an Indy defense that has been terrible stopping the run this year already allowing almost 500 yards on the ground in two games. That strategy won’t work vs Tennessee who has an impressive front 7 and has limited their opponents to just 92 YPG rushing and ranks #1 in the NFL in total defense allowing just 206 total YPG. The Titans will take away GB’s run and force Willis to beat them through the air. This Tennessee teams knows what Willis can and can’t do and we expect them to shut down GB’s offense. NFL 0-2 teams in week 3 are 52-33 ATS (61%) over the last decade and Tennessee falls into that mode here. It’s their last hurrah as 0-3 teams almost never make the playoffs. In fact since 2003 there have been 103 teams to start 0-3 and only 1 made the playoffs (2018 Houston Texans). Tennessee is better than their record and GB has a bigger game on deck next week. Titans win and cover.

#365/366 ASA PLAY ON Over 56 Points – Arkansas vs Auburn, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Offenses should dominate in this one on a hot day in Auburn with very little wind expected.  Both these 2 SEC teams rank in the top 35 in YPP offense this season with each putting up at least 6.3 YPP.  They also both like to play fast with Arkansas running a play every 23 seconds (16th fastest) and Auburn running a play every 25 seconds (31st).  The Tigers had 1 stinker offensively this year vs a Cal defense that has allowed less than 10 PPG so far this season.  In their other 2 games Auburn has scored 73 & 45 points.  The Arkansas defense has looked susceptible giving up 66 points combined in their last 2 games vs Oklahoma State and UAB.  Auburn QB Brown made his first start last Saturday and looked solid throwing for 235 yards and 4 TD’s leading the Tigers to 500+ total yards and 45 points.  The Razorbacks offense has looked really good all season under the direction of new starting QB Green (transfer from Boise State).  They have scored 138 points in 3 games while averaging 587 total yards per game.  Both teams have solid QB’s and the weakness of each defense is stopping the pass (85th & 98th in pass defense) so we look for lots of success through the air.  When these 2 teams get together, the offenses have thrived putting up more than 56 total points (today’s posted total) in 9 of their last 10 meetings.  Let’s play Over in this one.

ASA WNBA play on Atlanta Dream +1.5 at NY Liberty, 7 PM ET - The Liberty have locked up the #1 seed in the playoffs and will rest starters tonight against Atlanta. The Dream however need to win to have a shot at grabbing the 8th and final spot in the postseason. One thing we’ve learned in the WNBA this season is that depth is typically a concern for teams. New York has a few players that come off the bench and contribute but without their four starters of Stewart, Ionescu, Jones and Laney-Hamilton they lose 65.5PPG and the bulk of their rebounding, assists etc…Atlanta put themselves in position to make the playoffs with two straight wins over Chicago and Washington who were the other two contending teams for that coveted 8th and final spot. With the Liberty expected to sit everyone we will take Atlanta and we expect them to win this game outright.

ASA WNBA top play on Las Vegas Aces -7.5 at Seattle Storm, 10 PM ET - This number opened with Vegas -4.5 and was quickly bet up to the current number once the news of Jewell Loyd and Ezi Magbegor were out tonight. Loyd leads the Storm in scoring at 19.7PPG while Magbegor leads the team in rebounding at 8.0. In the WNBA depth is typically a big concern for teams and these two key pieces missing will be too much for the Storm to overcome. This is a big game for both teams as they currently sit #4 (Vegas) and #5 (Storm) in the playoff standings with only 1-game separating the two teams. The significance is that the #4 seed hosts the first round series against the #5 seed. Las Vegas has looked like the team that won it all last season in recent weeks with a 7-1 SU record in their last eight games. In that 8 game stretch they have an average +/- of +9.6PPG, best in the league. Every win in that 8-game span has come against a current playoff bound team or one in contention. Seattle has won 4 in a row and 5 of their last six games, but their last 3 wins have come against the Sparks and Wings who are the two worst teams in the league and all 3 of those games were close. Las Vegas has dominated this series with a 9-1 SU/ 7-3 ATS record in the last ten meetings. LV won by 5-points on this court earlier this season when the Storm were at full strength. Today the margin is much more against this depleted Seattle roster.

#963/964 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 8 Runs - Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Guardians, Tuesday at 6:40 PM ET - Twins are starting Zebby Matthews here and the rookie is struggling to adjust to the MLB level.  Things are not getting any easier either as he certainly has not been trending the right way either.  Matthews has allowed 15 earned runs in only 10.1 innings over his last 3 starts.  The Guardians also have a starting pitcher that has strong odds of struggling this evening as well.  Gavin Williams mixes in a quality start every once in a while but that appears unlikely here as he has struggled badly in his last 2 starts with one knocking him out in the first inning and the next one seeing him struggle to make it through 5 innings.  Overall Williams has struggled in 5 of his last 8 starts with 22 earned runs allowed in 23.1 innings over those 5 starts.  Certainly Cleveland has a strong bullpen and a great closer but their closer Emmanuel Clase would be pitching a 3rd straight day if he is called upon here.  Certainly this is doable for him but yet is not something he has done very often this season.  As for the Twins, their bullpen ERA ranks 22nd in the majors and they may be needed early here the way Matthews is going.  Yesterday's game was a 4-3 Cleveland win but the teams combined for 18 hits.  Also, the Twins won 3 of 5 and scored 6 runs per game in the 5-game stretch before yesterday's loss.  The Guardians have won 6 of 8 games and scored an average of 4.8 runs in the 6 wins.  Cleveland has won 6 of 9 at home and averaged scoring 6 runs per game in the 6 victories.  We get a low total to work with because this ballpark is not known for high-scoring games but because of the pitching match-up and the way both teams have swung the bat a little better of late compared to usual, we feel this is exceptional line value here.  Per our computer math, the highest probability in this one is for a range of 10 to 11 runs here.  Over is the call in this one early Tuesday evening.

#290 ASA PLAY ON Houston Texans -6.5 over Chicago Bears, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - The Bears showed everyone in week 1 just how explosive they are going to be with rookie QB Caleb Williams under center. Chicago mustered 11 first downs, 84 yards rushing and 64 net yards passing. Williams was 14 of 29 for 93 yards. The Bears blocked a punt for a TD and returned an INT for a touchdown. Houston went into Indianapolis and dominated the Colts who were lucky to cover that game late. The Texans amassed 417 total yards at 5.8YPP, dominated the time of possession by 20 full minutes, were 100% in red zone trips and scored 29-points. RB Joe Mixon of the Texans had a huge rushing game with 159 yards and a touchdown. The Colts and Bears run a similar defensive scheme so expect Mixon/Texans running game to get untracked in a hurry. Once the run game is established QB Stroud and the passing attack can exploit a Bears pass defense that allowed the 25th most passing YPG in 2023. Houston had an average +/- at home last season of +6.9PPG. The Bears road differential was minus -6.6PPG.  Chicago lost 5 road games last season by 7 or more points. As long as this line is -7 or less we are on the Texans.

#268 ASA PLAY ON Dallas Cowboys -5.5 over New Orleans Saints, Sunday at 1 PM ET -

New Orleans looked great last week at home but their opponent may have had a lot to do with that.  Carolina simply looked inept on both sides of the ball.  The Saints scored 47 points on just 379 total yards for a ridiculous average of 1 point for every 8 yards gained.  Part of that was field position with New Orleans having scoring drives (TD or FG) of 1, 9, 16, and 36 yards.  QB Carr has zero pressure and completed 82% of his passes because of that.  That won’t happen this week vs a Dallas defensive front that is among the best in the NFL.  The Cowboys had 6 sacks last week vs Cleveland and finished in the top 8 last season in sack percentage.  They’ll be facing a Saints offensive line that was solid last week but came into the season ranked 31st per PFF so maybe an aberration last week vs a poor team.  Dallas was also impressive last week and played a much better opponent and they were on the road.  They dominated the Browns 33-17 holding Cleveland’s offense to just 3.3 YPP.  The Browns scored a TD with under 30 seconds left in that one to make it look more respectable than it actually was.  Now we get Dallas at home where they’ve been dominant winning 16 straight regular season games by an average margin of +17.5 PPG.  Only 3 of those 16 straight regular season wins came by less than 6 points which is today’s spread.  Dallas outscored their opponents at home by 172 points last season which was tops in the NFL.  As you might expect with those numbers, Dak Prescott’s home and road splits last season were drastically different.  At home he completed 73% of his passes for almost 2,500 yards, 22 TD’s and just 3 picks.  He should have lots of success vs a New Orleans secondary that might be without their top CB Lattimore.  Cowboys by double digits

#186 ASA PLAY ON Baylor -16.5 over Air Force, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - This ain’t the Air Force team of the last few seasons.  Not even close.  The Falcons lost nearly everyone from last year’s team and rank outside the top 100 in returning yardage, returning tackles, and returning offensive line starts.  The problem is, when Air Force loses that much talent, they aren’t the team that just pays kids to come in from the portal and replace them.  They are going with what they have and it hasn’t been pretty so far this season.  The Falcons struggled in week 1 to beat FCS Merrimack and AF was actually outgained 3.8 YPP to 3.4 YPP.  Even more concerning for heavy running Air Force, they were outgained on the ground 4.2 YPG to 3.0 YPC.  That was vs a Merrimack team that turned around and played a bad UConn team last week and lost 63-17 getting outgained 625 to 279 vs the Huskies.  AF played San Jose State in week 2 and lost again averaging only 3.0 YPC.  For a heavy running team that has completed only 13 passes in 2 games to average only 3.0 YPC is a big problem.  Now they face a Baylor team that is far more talented and deep compared to Merrimack and San Jose State.  The Bears should be hungry here coming off a 23-12 loss @ Utah who many feel is the best team in the Big 12 this season.  On top of that, they lost to Air Force in the 2022 Armed Forces Bowl giving them a little extra motivation.  Baylor QB Finn, transfer from Toledo, will give the AF defense big problems with his running ability, after the Falcons faced 2 non-mobile QB’s in the first 2 weeks.  Baylor is the much more athletic and deeper team here which will be key as this one is being played in 90+ degree temps in Waco.  Baylor wears down AF and rolls to a big win.

#138 ASA PLAY ON Washington -5.5 over Washington State, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - This game is in Seattle at the Seahawks home stadium.  Washington lost a ton of production off of last year’s team that played for the National Championship but they’ve been flying under the radar so far this season.  New HC Jedd Fisch, who led Arizona to a 10-3 record last year, and new QB Rogers who transferred from Mississippi State, have this team clicking early in the year.  They are currently 8th in the nation in YPP differential at +4.5.  They handled one of the top team in FCS, Weber State, 35-3 and outgained them by 230 yards.  Last week they beat Eastern Michigan 30-9 but the stats were much worse than that with the Huskies outgained the Eagles by 300 yards.  Wazzou is in a similar situation losing nearly all of their production from last year (113th in returning yards & 109th in returning tackles).  The Cougars beat Portland State (bad FCS team) to open the season and then beat Texas Tech in Pullman last week.  Tech had a multitude of key players that had to sit out that game including top RB Boyd along with a number of defensive starters and the Red Raiders had 4 turnovers in that game.  While Washington and Washington State haven’t played a common opponent, let’s focus on their FCS opponents in week 1.  That’s because those 2 opponents played each other in week 2.  As we mentioned, the Huskies outgained Weber State by 230 yards in week 1.  Wazzou outgained Portland State by 185 yards in week 1.  Weber State played Portland State last week and rolled to an easy 43-16 win outgaining PSU by 300 yards!  You get the point.  Washington has covered 16 of the last 23 meetings in this rivalry along with 12 of the last 14 SU.  Huskies get another won and cover in Seattle on Saturday.

ASA WNBA play on Over 171.5 Seattle Storm at Dallas Wings, 7:30 PM ET - The Wings are in a tough spot here playing the 2nd night of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in four days. Their atrocious defense will be even worse tonight against the Storm. Dallas allows 1.135-points per possession, most in the WNBA a historically high number. In comparison, the next worse defense is the Indiana Fever who allow 1.091PPP. While Seattle is much better defensively, both are relatively even offensively with the Storm owning an Offensive Net rating of 101.9 compared to the Wings at 101.5. Dallas has allowed 90+ points in 13 of their last eighteen games and 6 straight. Seattle has scored 85+ points in 5 of their last seven games and have put up 92+ in all three meetings with the Wings this season. The Over is 7-3 in the last ten meetings between these two teams. Lastly, we know we will get a fast paced game here with a ton of possessions as the Storm rank 4th in pace, the Wings are 1st. Bet the Over.

ASA WNBA top play on UNDER 178.5 NY Liberty at Dallas Wings, 8 PM ET - The betting indicators on this game have us on the Under with more tickets bet on the Over, yet more money is on Under. The public has jumped in on the Over here as these two teams just met on Tuesday and produced 196 total points. There were a few outliers in that game though as the Liberty shot 54% overall and 55% from beyond the arc which are both well above season averages of 45% and 35%. Dallas hit 47% overall which is above their season average of 45% and somewhat surprising considering the Liberty have the 2nd best FG% defense at .43% allowed. An average WNBA game has 137 field goal attempts which results in 164 total points. In the game the other day the field goal attempts were 142 so not drastically higher than league average, yet they scored 196-points. The two previous games between these two teams this season resulted in 168 and 150 total points. We don’t expect these teams to shoot as well again tonight which will keep this game from going Over the number. UNDER is the call here.

#967/968 ASA PLAY ON Over 8.5 Runs - Los Angeles Angels at Minnesota Twins, Wednesday at 7:10 PM ET - The Angels are surprisingly showing some life again recently and face another pitcher they should hit here while the Twins really got their sticks going last night. We look for plenty of runs here.  The Angels have gone 6-6 last dozen games and scored 4.4 runs per game during this stretch.  The Twins will build off yesterday's 10-5 win and remember a lot of recent struggles at the plate also came on a recent 7-game road trip preceding this homestand.  Minnesota can turn it around at the plate now that they are here at home for a bit again.  The Twins will take advantage of facing Jack Kochanowicz here.  The right-hander has seen opponents hit .315 against him this season and he does not register many strikeouts!  As for Zebby Matthews, the Twins right-hander has been hit at a .323 average this season and we can see this turning into another high-scoring battle just like yesterday.  Both bullpens are mediocre, not great, and both teams had double digits in hits yesterday and the Angels also had 6 runs on 9 hits in Monday's game.  Over is the call in this one early Wednesday evening.

ASA WNBA play on Las Vegas Aces -3.5 at Indiana Fever, 7 PM ET - The Aces started the season lethargic and were clearly suffering from Championship hangover. They are starting to look like themselves again as they ramp up for another run at the Title. Las Vegas has won 4 of their last five games but are coming off a tough loss in New York on September 8th. Last season they would have overlooked this Fever team, but not this year with WNBA icon Caitlyn Clark on the roster. The Aces arguably have the best roster in the W and the best player in the league in A’ja Wilson. With this being a marquee game, we expect the cream to rise to the top and we get a spirited effort from Las Vegas. If you haven’t followed the WNBA here is what you need to know about Wilson. She leads the league in scoring (27.3ppg), is 2nd in rebounds at 11.9rpg, 1st in blocks and 3rd in steals. LV has the 4th best average scoring differential this season at +4.7PPG. On that note, the Fever have a negative average +/- of minus -2.6ppg this season. These two teams are very similar in Offensive Net rating, but the Aces hold a sizable advantage defensively. Indiana has won 6 of their last seven games but only 1 of those came against a team with a winning record. We recently laid 3-points with the Lynx on this court, and they won by 11-points. The Aces have won by double-digits in both meetings against the Fever this season. Lay the points with the road team.

ASA WNBA play on Minnesota Lynx -4.5 at Atlanta Dream, 7:30 PM ET - We will lay the short number with arguably the best team in the W, against one of the worst. There won’t be much of a home court advantage here for the Dream who are 7-10 SU on their home court. The Lynx have not been as good on the road this season as they are at home but still stand 12-6 SU away from home. The Dream have played a very soft schedule of late with games against the Sparks, Mercury, Wings and Fever, producing a 2-2 SU record. Atlanta has 12 wins this season and only 4 of those came against a team with a current winning record. Minnesota has the 2nd best average point differential on the road in the league at +4.8PPG. The Lynx have the second best Net Rating at +8.3 behind the Liberty at +11.9. Minnesota is one of the best defensive teams in the W and the Dream aren’t far behind on that end of the court. The big separator is on offense where the Lynx have an Offensive Net rating of 103.4 (4th) compared to the Dream at 96.5 or last in the league. In the three meetings between these two teams this season the Lynx have won by double-digits twice and +7-points in the other game. We like Minnesota here.

#474 ASA PLAY ON Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3.5 vs. Washington Commanders, Sunday at  4:25 PM ET - We know opening day underdogs historically do very well, but we will make an exception here with the Bucs at home against a rookie QB making his first NFL start on the road. Tampa Bay’s head coach Todd Boyles is one of the best defensive minds in the game and has been for years. Washington’s QB Daniels is going to be special, but with a limited scheme early on, against a confusing defense is a tall task to ask in his first start. Tampa Bay gave up yards last season but didn’t give up points allowing just 19.2PPG, the 5th lowest number in the league. The Bucs will pressure Daniels with a pass rush that averaged 2.8 sacks per game last season 8th most. Offensively the Bucs have a new O-coordinator in Liam Coen, the former Rams assistant in 2022. Coen contributed to an offense that ranked among league leaders across those seasons in passing yards per game (248.1; sixth), completions (1,504; 10th), first downs per game (21.4; 10th), third-down conversion rate (41.9%; eighth), goal-to-go efficiency (75.2%; ninth), rushing touchdowns (77; fourth), and fewest sacks allowed (139; eighth). Tampa will rely on QB Mayfield and the dynamic duo at WR of Evans and Godwin against a Commander's defense that was last in the league in passing yards per game allowed at 262. Washington allowed 7.5 yards per pass attempt (31st) and Tampa hit for 7.3 yards per pass attempt in 2023 (10th). Washington has a new system offensively and defensively with a new coaching staff so it’s going to take time for them to adjust with a rookie QB. Tampa ended last season on a 6-2 SU run and narrowly lost to the Lions in the playoffs. Washington closed the year by losing 7 straight. It’s going to be hot and humid in Tampa and we like the Bucs to roll in this home opener.

#457/458 ASA PLAY ON Under 41.5 Points – Pittsburgh Steelers vs Atlanta Falcons, Sunday at 1 PM ET - The QB positions on both sides are not ideal right now.  Pittsburgh planned to start Russell Wilson but he has a lingering calf issue.  If he plays he won’t be 100% and if he doesn’t it’s inaccurate Justin Fields who has a career completion percentage of barely 60%.  Atlanta plans to start Kirk Cousins who is coming off an achilles injury and hasn’t played since last October.  We don’t expect Cousins to be successful through the air here with zero game time with his new WR’s.  On the other side of the ball, we project both Pittsburgh and Atlanta to be the strengths of each team.  Atlanta has added key pieces with safety Simmons and edge rusher Judon bolstering an already top 10 defense in YPG, YPP, and PPG.  The Birds also have a new HC Morris who is one of the better defensive minds in the NFL so we look for a very good stop unit in Atlanta this season.  Pittsburgh will struggle big time on offense in this game.  The Steelers played both Wilson & Fields quite a bit in the pre-season yet they only scored a total of 32 points in 3 games.  Atlanta averaged just 19 PPG last season (26th in the NFL) and will most likely rely heavily on the run in order to protect Cousins early in the season.  Pittsburgh averaged just 18 PPG so we have 2 bottom 7 scoring offenses from last season going at it here.  Steeler games averaged 38 total points last year and Atlanta games averaged 41 total points.  Pittsburgh has been a huge money maker playing Unders in their road games with a 50-20 record to the Under the last 9 years.  Low scoring game here.

#368 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Nevada pick-em over Georgia Southern, Saturday at 7 PM ET - Nevada has been a surprise this year taking a good SMU team to the wire and then turning around the next week and beating Troy on the road as 8 point underdogs (we were on Troy unfortunately).  We felt Nevada was in a really tough spot last week after nearly upsetting SMU then having to travel across the country and play in the heat and humidity @ Troy (Alabama).  The Trojans have an outstanding program (23-5 record the previous 2 seasons) and the Wolfpack got down 14-0 early and battled back for a 28-26 win.  Very impressive.  The Wolfpack have run the ball very well with 214 yards rushing last week vs good Troy defense on 6.3 YPC.  The week prior they outgained SMU on the ground by +0.5 YPC and last week outgained Troy on the ground by +1.0 YPC.  That rushing success should continue on Saturday as they face Georgia Southern defense that allowed 371 yards rushing on over 10 YPC vs Boise last week.  GSU gave Boise a decent run losing 56-45 but it really wasn’t that close as the Broncos outgained the Eagles by almost 200 yards despite running 20 fewer offensive snaps.  The final count on a yards per play basis was Boise 9.9, GSU 5.4.  We like Nevada’s new HC Choate who led a very good Texas defense the previous season and before that had an impressive run as the head man @ Montana State.  He has this team playing hard and with confidence.  They should catch Georgia Southern in a tough spot here after giving everything they had last week trying to upset Boise and now making the long travel west.  GSU is not trustworthy laying points on the road (or pick-em) as they’ve only won 7 of their last 29 road tilts outright.  As you might expect looking at those numbers, the Eagles are just 4-10 ATS as road favorites since 2015 (lined opened with GSU favored and now pick-em).  Nevada gets the win on Saturday.

ASA WNBA play on Minnesota Lynx -2.5 at Indiana Fever, 7:30 PM ET - The Fever have the best home court in the WNBA with the Clark “Fever” running high, but Minnesota, in our opinion, is the 2nd best team in the W behind the Liberty. The Fever are solid offensively with the 3rd best Offensive Efficiency rating in the W at 1.055PPP. Indiana relies on their 3PT shooting which is 4th best in the league at .35%. Minnesota is slightly behind the Fever in terms of OEFF at 1.048PPP and are the best percentage 3-point team in the league at .38%. The separator between these two teams is defense. The Lynx have the best DEFF in the W at .966PPP allowed. Indiana in comparison is 2nd to last in DEFF allowing 1.086PPP. Minnesota can nullify the Fever’s typical advantage beyond the arc with the best 3PT% defense in the W at .29% allowed. Indiana will have a tough time defending the Lynx great shooting from deep as they allow opponents to make over .36%, 2nd worst number in the W. Minnesota lost to the Fever at home earlier this season and won’t overlook them here.

#951/952 ASA PLAY ON Over 7 Runs - Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants, Thursday at 3:40 PM ET - Diamondbacks games continue to go over the total and we are going to take advantage of a low number here. Don't let the pitching match-up keep you away from this one. Last night Zac Gallen threw 6 innings without allowing a single hit. The final score still ended up being 6-4. The Diamondbacks have been hitting well and the Giants should get to Arizona starter Merrill Kelly here as well. That makes this one a perfect set-up for an over. Kelly has allowed at least 4 earned runs in 3 straight starts plus he has allowed 6 homers in those 3 outings. The Giants 4 runs came late in the game yesterday but they can do damage early today in this one and then also get to that struggling Diamondbacks bullpen as the game goes on. Certainly Blake Snell has been pitching so well for the Giants outside of command issues in a recent start at Seattle. However, the Diamondbacks did get to him for 5 earned runs in 4.2 innings earlier this season and they have been one of hottest hitting teams in the majors in the 2nd half of the season. Their surge continues here and the hot run of overs in Arizona's games continues to surge as well. Over is the call in this one Thursday afternoon.

ASA WNBA top play on UNDER 174.5 LA Sparks at Indiana Fever, 7 PM ET - This line opened at 170 and was quickly bet up to the current number of 174.5 on the total. With the public “all over” the Caitlyn Clark/Fever (pun intended) we will grab the value and play Under. The average total points scored in a WNBA game this season is slightly more than 163. Indiana is one of the highest scoring teams in the league at 83.8PPG but the Sparks score the 3rd fewest at 78.8PPG. The Fever have an offensive efficiency rating of 1.054PPP, but the Sparks OEFF is .989 or second to last in the W. Indiana is not known for their defense, with an overall Net rating of 106.8 but since the Olympic break they been significantly better with a DNR of 101.9. Los Angeles has been slightly better defensively since the break also. Indiana is playing lights-out with a 6-1 SU record since the break and have clawed back into playoff contention. They have played 4 of their last five on the road, two straight away, and may relax a little tonight with a big game on deck versus Minnesota. LA is playing for the #1 pick in the draft and just trying to get through the season. The Spark have scored 74 or less points in 5 of their last eight games. In the two meetings this season between these two teams they have combined for 170 and 151 total points. We like the UNDER in this one.

ASA WNBA play on Phoenix Mercury -125 vs. Atlanta Dream, 10 PM ET - We have been down on the Mercury in recent games, but this is a great ‘get right’ spot for them against the 11-21 SU Atlanta Dream. The Mercury have lost three straight games to slip to 16-17 SU on the season. Those three losses came to the Aces, Lynx and Liberty who are potentially the three best teams in the league. Prior to that 3-game losing streak they split a pair of games in Atlanta, losing as a 3-point road favorite and winning 82-80 as a 2-point chalk. Granted, home court doesn’t mean as much in the WNBA, but the Mercury are basically laying the same number here at home as they did on the road. Phoenix holds a big advantage when it comes to shooting with a FG%’s (44%) and 3PT% (34%). Atlanta is one of the worst shooting teams in the league (41%) and really struggle from beyond the arc (31%). The Dream are playing their 4th straight road game while the Mercury have been at home for 3 in a row. Phoenix has won 2 of 3 against the Dream this season and grab the cash in this one.

#951/952 ASA PLAY ON Over 8 Runs - Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins, Tuesday at 6:40 PM ET - Definitely not a match-up of two powerhouse teams here but this has actually worked in our favor in terms of keeping this total low.  The total has dropped to an 8 in a lot of books as of 11 AM central time and we are happy to get involved with an over here as this match-up involves two starting pitchers likely to struggle.  Patrick Corbin has shown some better results of late but he has enjoyed a home-heavy schedule.  When Corbin comes up with some better starts it tends to be at home.  His road outings, on the other hand, leave a lot to be desired!  Corbin is 1-7 with a 6.52 ERA in his 13 road starts this season.  The Washington left-hander likely to get hit hard at Miami here. The Marlins also have a pitcher going that is likely to get hit hard.  Max Meyer gets the ball for Miami tonight and he went 1-4 with a 7.12 ERA in his 6 starts in August and opponents hit over .300 against him!  The Nationals have not scored well in B2B losses but this followed a 9 game stretch where they went 5-4 and scored 4.4 runs a game and they are facing weaker pitching here.  The Marlins have won 5 of 8 games and scored 5.5 runs per game in this 8-game stretch.  Also, 8 of Miami's last 11 games have totaled at least 9 runs.  Over is the call in this one early Tuesday evening.

#903/904 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 8.5 Runs - Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks, Monday at 4:10 PM ET - The Diamondbacks have won 28 of 40 games since the All-Star break.  Arizona has scored an average of 6.9 runs in the last 36 of those games and, as you would expect, have been trending strongly to the over!  The Dodgers had won 10 of 12 games prior to yesterday's 14-3 loss here and they have averaged scoring 6.1 runs in their last 11 games. The Dodgers start Jack Flaherty here and he has mostly good numbers since coming to LA from the Tigers.  We say "mostly" because he just allowed 2 homers for the 3rd time in 4 starts and 3 of those 4 starts were at home! Now he is on the road and, keep in mind, facing the Diamondbacks at Arizona is a tough match-up!  The Dbacks have the #1 batting average at home in the majors this season!   As for the Arizona starter, Eduardo Rodriguez, he has made 4 starts since his return.  One of those was against one of the weakest hitting teams (Miami) in the majors and he allowed only 1 earned run but 6 hits in 5 innings.  In the other 3 starts since he returned he allowed 11 earned runs in 16 innings!  He just allowed 5 earned runs in 5 innings versus the Mets and he faces another very tough challenge here.  The Dodgers have the #1 slugging percentage in the NL this season!  Two very solid hitting teams and also the Diamondbacks bullpen ERA ranks 20th in the majors and the runs keep rolling in at Chase Field.  Overall, 25 of the last 34 Arizona games have totaled at least 9 runs and that trend continues here! Also, 15 of the last 18 Diamondbacks home games have totaled at least 9 runs and 13 of those 15 got to 10+ runs!  Over is the call in this one Monday afternoon.

#186 ASA PLAY ON 10* Florida +2.5 over Miami FL, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - We just don’t trust this Miami team coming out of the gates.  Lots of hype around the Canes with multiple transfers securing key spots including QB Ward who came over from Washington State.  We think it will take them some time to get acclimated to each other and let’s face it, while Miami HC Cristobal is a very good recruiter, he is not a great head man.  He has been in charge of the Canes for 2 years with plenty of talent to do very well and his record here is just 14-11.  While U of M loaded up on transfers, we don’t like the continuity of this team ranking outside the top 100 in returning letterman and return tackle percentage on defense.  Again, they may struggle early in the year starting on Saturday.  Florida is coming off a tough 5-7 season in 2023 (5 of their losses came vs teams ranked 19 or higher) and nobody is talking about this team which is just how they like it.  The Gators return a bunch of production on offense ranking 36th nationally in returning yards.  Graham Mertz is back at QB and he finished 3rd in the nation in completion percentage last year at 73%.  It looks like top RB Johnson (2,500 career yards) will play here after missing some camp after a minor knee surgery.  We’ve been hearing good things coming out of camp about the Gator defense, especially the defensive line which is very deep this season.  Miami seems to be overrated every year.  They bring in players in highly rated players in recruiting and the portal and it rarely transfers to the field  The Canes were ranked in the top 25 entering the season in 2018, 2021, and 2022 and finished outside the rankings in each of those season.  The Swamp is a tough place to play with the Gators winning 28 of their last 35 games here, and Napier is 11-2 ATS in his career as a small home dog (+5 or less).  We take the Gators getting points at home on Saturday.

ASA WNBA top play on 10* New York Liberty -2.5 at Seattle Storm, 10 PM ET - We like the Liberty here by double-digits in Seattle over the Storm. Seattle has a loaded roster but has struggled of late with a 2-3 SU record since the Olympic break. The Storm have a pair of wins against the Dream and Mystics who have a combined 19-42 SU record and are two of the bottom four teams in the league. The three losses in that five-game sample have come against the Dream, Fever and Mystics, again lower tier teams in the W. New York has the best record in the league at 26-6 SU with the best average point differential of +9.3PPG. The Liberty have the best offensive rating in the league at 109, the 4th best defensive rating at 97.1 and the best overall Net rating of +11.9. Seattle is slightly better than NY defensively but much worse offensively. The Liberty are 12-4 SU on the road this season with an average +/- of +9.4PPG. Granted, Seattle is good at home with a 12-4 SU record and an average point differential of +10.5PPG but their schedule to this point at home has been extremely easy. NY has beaten the storm 5 straight times and are in a great spot here coming off a loss in their most recent game. The Liberty are 11-1 SU in the last two regular seasons when coming off a loss and with this number being as low as it is we like our chances. Lay it!

#907/908 ASA PLAY ON Over 8 Runs - New York Mets at Arizona Diamondbacks, Thursday at 3:40 PM ET - The Diamondbacks have won 27 of 36 games since the All-Star break.  Arizona has scored an average of 6.8 runs in the last 32 of those games and, as you would expect, have been trending strongly to the over!  The Mets had won 8 of 13 games prior to yesterday's 8-5 loss and they have averaged 5 runs during this stretch. The Mets start David Peterson here and the left-hander does have great numbers on the season and in recent outings.  One of the keys however is that he has faced a lot of weaker teams quite often this season including the A's plus the Marlins multiple times and the Nationals 3 times.  Give him some credit for a solid overall season but keep in mind facing the Diamondbacks at Arizona is a tough match-up!  The Dbacks have the #1 batting average at home in the majors this season!   Also, both these bullpens have ERA numbers that rank them only at mid-level in the majors.  As for the Arizona starter, Ryne Nelson is off of B2B quality starts on the road but has a 4.95 ERA in his home starts this season.  Also, the Mets have the #1 slugging percentage in the NL in road games this season!  Two solid hitting teams and both teams with hopes on post-season MLB keep pushing hard in this one and the runs keep coming.  22 of the last 30 Arizona games have totaled at least 9 runs and that trend continues here!  Over is the call in this one Thursday afternoon.

ASA play on UNDER 157.5 Atlanta Dream at Seattle Storm, 10 PM ET - These teams met in Atlanta on August 16th, fresh off the Olympic break, with the Dream winning 83-81 and the Over 156.5 cashing. The pace of play was slower as we expect to be the case in this game, but both teams shot above season standards resulting in 164 total points. In the only other meeting this season in Seattle these two combined for 151 points. Seattle has struggled offensively since the break with the second-to-last Offensive Net Rating in the W at 93.1, while scoring just 77.8PPG. Seattle is one of the better defensive teams in the league ranking 4th in DNR while giving up just 78.3PPG. Atlanta allows the 5th fewest PPG in the league at 80.1 and rank 6th in Defensive Net Rating. The Dream are the 10th slowest paced team in the league and prefer a slower tempo. Atlanta has a hard time scoring points averaging just 75.8PPG and they rank last in Offensive Net Rating. The Under has cashed in 5 of the last 6 meetings and we are betting that trend continues.

#962 ASA PLAY ON Cleveland Guardians -135 over Kansas City Royals, Wednesday at 1:10 PM ET - Last night the Royals starting pitcher, Lorenzen, got hurt covering 1st base and had to leave the game in the 2nd inning. So Kansas City had to use a lot of bullpen arms yesterday and this followed a double-header Monday which also required a lot of bullpen usage.  Michael Wacha has been solid of late for the Royals but so too has Tanner Bibee of the Guardians.  Also, the Cleveland bullpen is in better shape than the KC pen.  This is a big battle at the top of the AL Central and, with 3 straight wins, Kansas City is now tied for 1st place with the Guardians.  Look for Cleveland to come up big here and avoid the sweep.  The Guardians are a perfect 3-0 the last 3 times they have entered a game on a losing streak of 3 or more games.  This is an early start time in Cleveland and Wacha is 0-4 in his 5 day game starts this season.  Bibee is 4-0 in his 8 day game starts this season.  Bibee has a 2.81 ERA and 1-0 record in his 3 starts versus KC in his young career.  Wacha escaped major damage when he faced Cleveland earlier this season but did allow 7 hits in 5.1 innings.  The Royals bullpen is ranked 24th in the majors with a 4.33 ERA while Cleveland's bullpen is ranked 1st in the majors with a 2.82 ERA.  The KC bullpen, as noted above, has been overworked recently as well.  Look for the Guardians to pull away as this game gets into the latter innings and we look for a solid win for the hosts here.  The home team is the bet in this one.

#929/930 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 8.5 Runs - Baltimore Orioles at Los Angeles Dodgers, Tuesday at 10:10 PM ET - The Orioles Cole Irvin just made his first appearance on the mound in 3 weeks and his first start in nearly 2 months.  It was a shaky outing for him last week and he was unable to make it out of the 5th inning. In his last 7 starts Irvin has allowed 50 hits in 34.1 innings!  He has been very hittable and also has been charged with 16 earned runs in 16.2 innings in his last 4 starts!   Now Irvin has to face the Dodgers and he is on the road for this one.   LA is expected to have Jack Flaherty on the mound in this one.  He is off a solid start versus the Mariners but he gave up 7 earned runs on 13 hits (including 4 homers!) in 10.2 innings spanning his two starts before that one against Seattle.  Flaherty now has to face one of the top hitting teams in the majors.  The Orioles have the #1 slugging percentage in the majors this season!  The Dodgers have the #1 slugging percentage in the NL. The LA bullpen is solid but the Orioles are middle of the pack at best.  Baltimore did not hit well at all in their Sunday night loss and we expect them to bounce back strong here.  This Orioles team has scored 5.3 runs per game on the road this season and have maintained that pace in their 19 road games since the All-Star break as well.  The Dodgers have averaged scoring 5.5 runs per game in their last 18 home games.  We look for these two lineups to be the story in this one as these two teams loaded with potent hitters put on a show here at Dodger Stadium in the opener.  Per our computer math, high probability for a range of 10 to 12 runs here.  Over is the call in this one Tuesday night.

ASA WNBA play on OVER 180.5 Las Vegas Storm at Dallas Wings, 8 PM ET - This is a big number, but we expect enough points by both teams to eclipse this O/U. In two meetings this season these two teams have combined for 176 and 189 total points. Las Vegas themselves scored a combined 199 in the two games. The Aces are the highest scoring team in the league at 87.3PPG. They are also the fastest paced team in the W. Las Vegas held the top spot in the league last season in Defensive Net Rating at 97.7, but this season they rank 5th in DNR at 100.7. The Aces are giving up 82.9PPG on the season (7th most) after allowing 80.3PPG in 2023. The Wings defense is the worst in the league in too many categories to list. Dallas is allowing 90.2PPG, have the 12th rated FG% defense as foes hit 47.3% against them. The Wings are last in the W in Defensive Net Rating at 110.5. Dallas has allowed over 100+ points in 5 of their last ten games and surrendered 110 to the Sparks in their last game. L.A. is one of the worst offensive teams in the league so what does that mean Vegas will score. Lastly, both teams prefer to play fast with the Aces ranking 1st in pace of play, the Wings are 3rd. In the two meetings this season both games were well above the league average in field goal attempts. Don’t be intimidated by the big number and bet OVER!

ASA top play on UNDER 166.5 New York Liberty at Phoenix Mercury, 10 PM ET - We will get a slower pace in this game which will lead to an Under. The Mercury are the 9th slowest paced team in the WNBA, the Liberty are 8th slowest. Since coming back from the All-Star break the Mercury have played especially slow, ranking last in the league. In their last five games the Mercury have been much better defensively with a Net rating of 99.2 which is significantly better than their season number to 104.4. The Liberty have the 2nd best Defensive Net rating on the season of 94.2 and have been even better after the break at 86.7. Phoenix hold opponents to 43% shooting (5th best) in the W, the Liberty hold foes to 42% shooting (3rd). These two teams rely heavily on their interior scoring but both teams have size and can nullify the others advantage. The Liberty have allowed 64 or less points in 5 straight games. New York has played Under in 9 of fourteen road games this season. Phoenix has stayed Under at home in 3 of their last four games and 6 of the last ten on this court. In mid-June these two teams met on this floor and produced 192 total points but both teams shot well above expectations. We will grab the added line value after the move and bet Under.

ASA WNBA play on OVER 170.5 LA Sparks at Dallas Wings, 4 PM ET - This game is going to be a shootout between a pair of teams that don’t play any defense. Dallas allows 1.123-points per possession this season, the most in the league. LA isn’t much better allowing 1.071PPP which ranks 10th. Teams shoot on average 47% against the Wings (12th) and 46% against the Sparks (11th). These two teams also rank second-to-last and last in the W in points allowed in the paint which translates to easy scores by opponents. Dallas gives up over 90PPG, the Spark allows over 85PPG. Dallas is coming off three straight games against two of the best defensive teams in the W (NY and Connecticut) so facing this Sparks defense will be a welcomed relief. LA had a pair of lower scoring games against Las Vegas and the Sun who are also top tier defenses. In their most recent game against the Mystics the two teams combined for just 154 points. There were 148 field goal attempts in the game, which is significantly more than the league average of 136. Dallas is the 3rd fastest paced team in the league, LA is 5th so we know there will be plenty of possessions for this game to get into the 170’s. We call for the Over here.

ASA play on UNDER 168 Las Vegas Aces at Minnesota Lynx, 9:30 PM ET - These two Western Conference contenders just met in Vegas on Wednesday night with the Lynx winning 98-87 as a 7-point dog. The game eclipsed the O/U number of 167.5. The first question you need to ask yourself is “why did the oddsmakers open this game with the same O/U when they just combined for 186 total points”? The total field goal attempts in that game was 135 which is below the league average of 137.4. The average total points scored in WNBA games this season is 163.4PPG. The reason for the higher output was insanely good shooting by the Lynx who hit 59% of their FG attempts (38/64) and made 11 of 19 3-pointers for 58%. Both of those numbers are well above the Lynx season averages of .46% oval and .39% from 3. Las Vegas shot above expectations too by going 33/71 from the field (46%) and 13 of 30 from Deep for 43%. Those numbers are unsustainable in this back-to-back setting between these two rivals. Minnesota is the best defensive team in the W in defensive efficiency allowing .956-points per possession. The Aces are 5th allowing 1.022PPP. Minnesota is one of the slowest paced teams in the league and will want to dictate tempo here on their home court. The last time these two teams met in Minny they produced just 146 total points. The Aces have stayed Under in 3 of their last four on the road. The Lynx have stayed Under in 7 of their last ten at home. In this quick rematch we like a defensive battle and low scoring game.

#919/920 ASA PLAY ON Over 9.5 Runs - Arizona Diamondbacks at Boston Red Sox, Friday at 7:10 PM ET - The Diamondbacks have won 23 of 31 games since the All-Star break.  Arizona has scored an average of 6.8 runs in the last 27 of those games and, as you would expect, have been trending strongly to the over!  Boston has won 6 of 10 games and scored an average of 5.5 runs during this 10-game stretch!  The Red Sox are off a 4-1 win but, prior to this, 20 of 29 Boston games reached double digits in runs scored and we expect a back and forth high-scoring affair in this one.  The Red Sox start Brayan Bello.  The right-hander has a 5.28 ERA at home this season with opponents hitting .286 against him there.  Arizona's Ryne Nelson is off of a quality start on the road but this followed allowing 4 earned runs and being hit hard in each of his two road starts prior to that one.  Both bullpens have ERA numbers that rank them in the lower third of the league.  Also, these are 2 of the top 3 teams in the majors for slugging percentage over the last 30 days.  Two hot lineups and both teams with hopes on post-season MLB keep pushing hard in this one and the runs keep coming.  9 of 12 games at Fenway Park since the A/S break totaled at least 10 runs and all signs point to plenty of success for each lineup here as that trend continues!  Over is the call in this one Friday night.

ASA play on UNDER 176.5 Dallas Wings at NY Liberty, 7 PM ET - This is the second meeting between these two teams in consecutive games. New York won on Tuesday 94-74 as a 14-point favorite with the Under cashing as the game stayed below 171.5-points. Dallas shot 38% on 66 field goal attempts against a Liberty defense that is one of the best in the league. New York holds opponents to an average of 42% shooting and give up just 76.1PPG. The Wings are averaging 82PPG on the season and shoot .44%. New York is the most efficient offense in the W at 1.104-points per possession but they play at a slower tempo, averaging 78.3 possessions per game. Dallas is the worst defensive team in the league on the season with a Defensive Net Rating of 110.1. The Wings rank 8th in Offensive Net Rating and average 1.019-points per possession. The average number of field goal attempts per game in the W is 136.2. In the game on Tuesday these two teams combined for 140, slightly more than the league average. New York has a huge game on deck against Connecticut so expect them to go deeper into their bench and keep this game from turning into a shootout which favors the Wings. The Liberty have played 4 sets of back-to-backs against the same team and in three of those situations they scored less points in the second game. NY has a strong Over record this season at home, but most of those Totals were less than 170-points. In fact, the Liberty have had just to O/U’s this season on their home court of 170 or better and both have stayed Under.

#955/956 ASA PLAY ON Under 7.5 Runs – Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates, Thursday at 6:40 PM ET - This one should be a pitchers duel. When Nick Lodolo faced the Pirates earlier this season it was also a start at Pittsburgh and he was fantastic with just 1 earned run on 4 hits in 7 innings while striking out 8!  Lodolo enters this start off a bad one at home and that is the 2nd bad one he has had at home in recent weeks.  But he continues to dominate on the road where he has given up only 14 earned runs in 37.1 innings for a solid 3.37 ERA in his 7 starts away from home.  This Pirates team has been struggling to score runs in most of their recent games so we expect Lodolo to have another good start against them.  Pittsburgh is on a 3-13 run and averaged only 1.8 runs scored in their last 8 losses during this bad stretch.  The Reds lineup has been performing better than the Pirates of late yet they have averaged only 3.2 runs scored in the last 5 road games prior to wrapping up the series in Toronto with a huge win.  Now they face a very tough match-up with Paul Skenes on the mound.  He bounced back at home after a tougher outing in LA versus the Dodgers and he has given up only 10 earned runs in his last 6 home starts.  Runs likely tough to come by in this one as Skenes and Lodolo should both work deep as well and we like the recent history of these pitchers versus these lineups. Our computer math model is projecting high probability for a range of only 4 to 6 runs here and even if it gets to 7 that is still a winning ticket for us. We are going with the Under in this one.

ASA WNBA play on Minnesota Lynx +6 at Las Vegas Aces, 9:30 PM ET - This matchup between the top two teams in the Western Conference promises to be a close one, likely decided by 5 points or less either way. Minnesota holds the edge in overall Net Rating at +8.2, compared to Las Vegas at +6.4. Defensively, the Lynx are superior, ranking 1st in Defensive Net Rating, while the Aces come in at 5th. Offensively, the Aces are 2nd in the WNBA, with the Lynx at 6th. Minnesota has excelled as an underdog this season, boasting a 7-3 record against the spread in that role. They’ve also won three consecutive games, giving them a 1.5-game lead over the Aces in the standings. With Collier back, the Lynx are significantly stronger than the team that struggled before the All-Star break. They are 7-5 SU on the road this season with a point differential of +4.6 PPG. Conversely, the Aces haven’t been a reliable bet this season, particularly against the spread, both at home (6-9 ATS) and overall (10-16 ATS). Last season, Las Vegas dominated at home with a 19-1 SU record and an average point differential of +17.6 PPG. However, this season they are just 9-6 SU at home with a much smaller average point differential of +4.5 PPG. While Vegas’ offense has seen improvement with Chelsea Gray back in action, I’m hesitant to expect a dominant win from the Aces, especially after their recent home loss to the New York Liberty, another top team. The Aces have already lost six home games this season, and clearly home-court advantage hasn’t provided the Aces with the edge it once did.

#922 ASA PLAY ON San Francisco Giants -1.5 on the Run Line (+100) over Chicago White Sox, Wednesday at 3:45 PM ET - This game is being priced with too much emphasis on the starting pitching match-up and, even then, there is a flawed perception here!  When one first looks at this match-up they see Garrett Crochet with a 3.61 ERA this season and a 3.28 ERA in his career.  One also sees Logan Webb with similar numbers as he has a 3.17 ERA this season and a 3.36 ERA in his career!  Before we even get into the vast difference between the recent trending of the White Sox and Giants, there is also a big difference in trending between these pitchers and it is not what one would expect given those numbers for Crochet.  The White Sox southpaw is dealing with a major stretch of struggles with only his last start, though short, an exception! Crochet has not lasted more than 4 innings in any of his last 7 starts and has averaged 3.1 innings per start!  Behind him is a very bad White Sox bullpen and also Crochet is off a scoreless 4-inning start but this followed him having given up 13 earned runs in 13.1 innings in his 4 outings since the All Star break!  As for Webb, he is in phenomenal current form as he has allowed only 2 earned runs in 29.1 innings over his last 4 starts.  Also, on the season he is 7-3 with a 2.26 ERA in his home starts!  Opponents are hitting only .223 against him in San Francisco.  Now, about those team trends, the Giants have won 11 of 16 home games and are still very much alive in the Wild Card race.  The White Sox, on other hand, are going down this season as one of the worst teams in all-time MLB history.  They head into this one with just 3 wins in 35 games and also are 12-53 on the road this season.  San Francisco wins this season have featured 72% of them coming by a margin of at least 2 runs.  Chicago's losses have seen 72 of 97 come by a multi-run margin.  Strong odds on yet another blowout loss for the White Sox here. Lay the run line in this one!