Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-12-22 | Kansas v. Texas Tech -3.5 | Top | 28-43 | Win | 100 | 19 h 53 m | Show |
#158 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas Tech -3.5 over Kansas, Saturday at 7 PM ET - This is a huge home game for Tech. They sit with a 4-5 record and need to win 2 of their last 3 games for bowl eligibility. They are catching Kansas coming off a huge home win vs Oklahoma State which made the Jayhawks bowl eligible for the first time since 2008. The celebrated as if they’d won the National Championship and now KU must go on the road where they’ve struggled. We expect a letdown here now that Kansas has achieved their goal of making it to a bowl game. They are 1-2 SU in Big 12 road games losing by double digits to both Oklahoma and Baylor (outgained by a combined 400+ yards in those games) and their lone win was @ WVU in OT way back on September 10th and we have the Mountaineers the lowest rated team in the Big 12. Last week’s 37-16 win over a really banged up OSU team wasn’t quite as impressive as it might seem. The Cowboys played without their starting QB along with a number of other key starters on the shelf as well. A week earlier OSU lost @ KSU 48-0. They simply have too many injuries to compete at a high level right now. It looks like KU starting QB Daniels will remain out meaning back up Bean will get his 4th straight start. Prior to last week’s win, Bean started 2 games on the road (Baylor & Oklahoma) and the Jayhawks were down 20+ points in the 2nd half of each game and made a late comeback making each look more respectable than they actually were losing by 10 & 12 points. Tech is much better than their 4-5 record. They’ve played very tough with all but one of the Big 12’s top teams and have led in the 2nd half of many of those conference losses. The Red Raiders have played the 4th toughest schedule in the nation yet their YPG differential is an impressive +89 YPG (Kansas is -1 YPG on the season). Their offense is always potent, however the Tech defense is vastly improved this year allowing 373 YPG after giving up over 400 YPG last season. They hold a solid edge on that side of the ball with the KU defense giving up 435 YPG. The Raiders did lose QB Morton to an injury last week, however he was their 3rd string QB to start the season and was forced into action when starter Shough and back up Smith went down. They are both back so whoever starts we’re fine at QB. We like the value here as Texas Tech was favored by 19 AT Kansas last year and won in blowout fashion. We understand KU is improved but that is a huge swing in the pointspread in just 1 year. Tech is 21-2 SU in this series and we look for a win and cover on Saturday. |
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11-11-22 | Kings v. Lakers OVER 231.5 | Top | 120-114 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 231.5 Sacramento Kings at LA Lakers, 10:40 PM ET - No LeBron tonight, no problem concerning this Over-Under. Let’s face it, LeBron tends to slow the offense at times as he’s very deliberate when he has the ball in his hands on the offensive end of the court. With him out of the lineup that means more time for Westbrook who pushes the tempo every chance he gets. The Lakers are currently the 3rd fastest paced team in the league at 102.3 possessions per game. Sacramento is 13th in pace at 100.3 possessions per game. The Kings have solid offensive numbers as they rank 10th in offensive efficiency, 9th in scoring at 115.9PPG and are the 7th best shooting team in the NBA. They should improve on their scoring numbers against a Lakers defense that is not good this season ranking 19th in defensive efficiency and 24th in PPG given up at 116.1. Granted, the Lakers offense has not been good either this season, but they have a great opportunity to ‘get right’ tonight against a Kings D that is 25th in PPG allowed (117.1), 29th in both overall FG% and 3PT% defense and 25th in DEFF. In the two most recent meetings between these two teams they produced 241 and 236 total points. Bet OVER! |
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11-11-22 | Stanford v. Wisconsin UNDER 137.5 | Top | 50-60 | Win | 100 | 20 h 42 m | Show |
#677/678 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 137.5 Points – Stanford vs Wisconsin, Friday at 7:30 PM ET - This game is being played at the home of the Brewers, American Family Field. This will be the first basketball game ever at the field and the back drop is terrible. Really no back drop at all behind the baskets which will make it very difficult to shoot well. This total is set a little high in our opinion due to Wisconsin’s first performance of the year where they scored 85 points vs South Dakota and Stanford’s first game of the year where they put up 88 at home vs Pacific. The Badgers hit over 50% of their shots on Monday night vs South Dakota and made 12 of their 26 three point attempts. Stanford hit 60% of their shots vs Pacific and went to the FT line 34 times. Now they’ll both be facing far superior defenses than they faced in their openers and neither will be at home where they tend to be comfortable shooting the ball. Wisconsin averaged 69.9 PPG last year ranking them 175th nationally and lost their top 2 scorers Johnny Davis & Brad Davison. They will take some time to find their footing offensively early in the season vs solid opponents. Stanford averaged just 64 PPG last year ranking them 274th. Both of these defenses allowed less than 70 PPG last season and after facing defenses in their first game of the season that ranked 254th (South Dakota) and 271st (Pacific) in scoring last year, this is a huge step up on that end of the court. Wisconsin has picked up their pace a bit over the last few season but they still ranked outside the top 250 in tempo last year and Stanford was middle of the pack so neither play at a really fast pace. We expect a halfcourt game here in which both teams struggle to shoot the ball in this non familiar basketball venue. Neither team gets to 70 here and we like the Under. |
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11-10-22 | Falcons v. Panthers +2.5 | Top | 15-25 | Win | 100 | 20 h 48 m | Show |
#114 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Carolina Panthers +2.5 over Atlanta Falcons, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - These 2 just met on October 30th in Atlanta with the Falcons going off as a 4.5 point favorite. The Birds won the game 37-34 in OT but were outgained on both a YPG (+72) and YPP (+0.4) basis in that game. Now they are on the road and laying 2.5 points just 2 weeks later. Based on the line on October 30th, the Panthers should be a slight favorite here but they are getting nearly a FG. We like the value with Carolina in this one. Panther QB Walker had 317 yards passing, a career high, vs a leaky Atlanta defense that allowed 6.1 YPP (31st in the NFL). He should have plenty of confidence in this rematch just 2 weeks later. In his lone home start this season, Walker and the Panthers rolled over the Bucs 21-3 and it wasn’t a fluke as they outgained Tampa by +2.0 yards per play in that win. They take on an Atlanta team that is 0-4 SU on the road this year, getting outgained in each game by a combined 592 yards or an average of -148 YPG. Despite their 4-4 record, the Falcons have been outgained by an average of -0.8 YPP which ranks them 29th in the NFL. Carolina ranks 18th in YPP margin at -0.11. Atlanta has been a dog in every game but one this season (first match up with Carolina) and now they are laying points on the road for just the 4th time since the start of the 2019 season. We’ll take the better defense (Panthers 17th in YPP defense, Atlanta 31st) as a home dog in prime time. |
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11-09-22 | Suns v. Wolves UNDER 223 | Top | 129-117 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on #547/548 UNDER 223 Phoenix Suns at Minnesota Timberwolves, 8:10 PM ET - In the first week of the NBA season, scoring was up with games averaging 228 total points per game. That has trended back to the norm with games averaging 224.8-total points per game currently. In other words, this game has to be slightly lower scoring than an average game, which is what our model is predicting. Let’s start with the fact these two teams are a combined 6-15 to the Under this season. The addition of Rudy Gobert to the Wolves lineup is taking time for the team to adjust to. Last year the Wolves were the highest scoring team in the league at 115.4PPG but this year they are down to 113.7PPG which ranks 12th. Those numbers should be considerably higher given the fact that the Wolves have played the Spurs three times who are last in the league in points allowed per game at 120.6. They’ve also faced the Rockets and Knicks who are bottom 10 in PPG given up. Now they face a Suns team that is 2nd in points allowed per game at 103.5PPG, and rank 3rd in defensive efficiency. Another key factor is pace. Minnesota has faced several fast tempo teams this season, but the Suns are the 3rd slowest in pace of play at 95.7 possessions per game. The presence of Gobert (multiple defensive player of the year awards) has made the T-Wolves better defensively. Minnesota is 9th in defensive efficiency ratings at 1.105-points per possession allowed. Phoenix was 5th overall in scoring a year ago at 113.8PPG but are currently 15th at 112.4PPG. This game is shaping up to be very similar to the Bucks/Wolves game the other night which finished with 217 total points. Bet UNDER! |
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11-09-22 | Jazz v. Hawks -2.5 | Top | 125-119 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 36 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on #544 Atlanta Hawks -2.5 vs. Utah Jazz, 7:40 PM ET - The Hawks have strung together three quality wins over the Knicks, Pelicans and most recently the Bucks. The win over Milwaukee was significant considering Trae Young did not play. He is expected to be in the lineup tonight versus the Jazz. Atlanta is 4-1 SU at home this season with a +5PPG differential. The Hawks were 27-11 SU a year ago at home with the exact same +/- of +5PPG. As a home favorite the Hawks are 22-17 ATS their last 39 and they win those games by an average of +6.1PPG. Utah has certainly been one of the biggest surprises early on as nobody predicted them to be 9-3 SU at this point after trading away Mitchell and Gobert. The Jazz are 4-3 SU on the road but only one of those four road wins came against a team with a winning record (6-5 Clippers). Utah isn’t great as a road dog with a 7-7-1 ATS record dating back to the start of last season with a negative differential of minus -6.9PPG. Lastly, we like to fade a team like the Jazz off a HUGE 139-point offensive showing and win over a hated rival like the Lakers. These two teams are very similar in terms of offensive and defensive efficiency numbers but the situation and setting favors the Hawks. |
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11-08-22 | Golden Knights v. Maple Leafs -117 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -117 | 8 h 1 m | Show |
#12 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Toronto Maple Leafs -120 on the Money Line over Vegas Golden Knights, Tuesday at 7:05 PM ET - This is a great early season set-up filled with value. The Golden Knights are off to a great start this season but that has them over-valued here. Vegas has played a favorable early season schedule with 8 of 13 match-ups against non-playoff teams from last season. The Golden Knights have only 2 losses on the season but of their 5 games against playoff teams one was a win over these Maple Leafs and then the 2 losses came in the other 4 games. The point is that Vegas has not been so "lights out" against playoff teams from last season. The Golden Knights did beat the Leafs in Vegas however and that makes this a revenge game. We love this spot for Toronto to exact revenge. The Knights are on a long road trip and though they have been winning, the past two victories came despite allowing 4 goals in each game! That is not happening against Toronto. The Maple Leafs have been quite stingy this season so if they get to 4 goals scored they are likely winning this game handily. Toronto has won 5 of 6 home games this season and allowed 2 or less goals in all 5 victories! The surprise with Vegas this season is they have been getting better goaltending than expected. However, both Thompson and Hill are limited in NHL career experience and they each have allowed 4 goals in their most recent start on this road trip. That is why, no matter who is in goal for Vegas tonight, we like the home team to get the big win as they have been allowing a lot fewer goals than Toronto teams in the recent past. Lay it! We think we’re getting some nice value getting this revenge-minded home team at a great price of just -120 in this one with the Leafs as it is the perfect set-up for a home win. |
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11-07-22 | Ravens v. Saints +1.5 | Top | 27-13 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
#474 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New Orleans Saints +1.5 over Baltimore Ravens, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - MNF road favorites are 0-2 ATS this season and just 2-9 ATS since the start of last season. We like this match up for the Saints and feel they are undervalued due to their 3-5 SU record. They are better than that record indicates. They’ve been quite unlucky in the turnover category this season ranking dead last in the NFL turnover margin at -9. Meanwhile, the Ravens have been very fortunate in that category ranking 2nd in the NFL in TO margin at +6. That fact is, teams that win the TO battle for a specific game win close to 80% of the time so the numbers above for the Saints & Ravens have factored in heavily to their current records. In large part because of that Baltimore has played above their estimated win total thus far of 4 (based on advanced stats of each game) and New Orleans has played below their estimated win total which is also 4. We expect the TO’s to even out so to speak for each team moving forward. The Saints, despite their 3-5 record, are actually 6th in the NFL in YPP margin at +0.64 and the 6 teams ahead of them all have winning records with the exception of SF which is 4-4. The combined record of the 5 teams ahead of the Saints in this key category is 30-10. Baltimore ranks 11th in YPP margin despite their superior record. New Orleans is +75 YPG this season while the Ravens have actually been outgained by about 5 YPG this season. We like the way New Orleans is playing right now outgaining 4 straight opponents including Cincinnati and Seattle who rank 10th and 11th in total offense. The defense is coming off a shutout holding the Raiders scoreless last weekend and they’ve held 3 straight opponents to below their season average in YPG. The offense is humming averaging 31 PPG over their last 4 and they’ve hit at least 399 total yards in 3 of those 4 games. Baltimore’s pass game took a huge hit here with leading receiver TE Andrews declared out so they will have to rely even more on the running game tonight (starting RB Edwards most likely out as well) vs a Saints defense that ranks 11th in the NFL in rush defense. We think the Saints are the better team and getting points at home. Take it. |
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11-07-22 | Thunder v. Pistons +2 | Top | 103-112 | Win | 100 | 7 h 47 m | Show |
#506 ASA top play on 10* Detroit Pistons +2 vs. Oklahoma City Thunder, 7:40 PM ET - The Pistons are 2-8 SU on the season and off to a disappointing start with their young roster. OKC on the other hand is 4-5 SU and playing above expectations. In this scenario though we have to back the home underdog with Detroit. The Pistons are coming off a horrible home loss to the Cavs on Friday night after winning their previous home game over the Warriors by 14. Sandwiched between those two home games were a pair of losses in Milwaukee. OKC is also off a pair of losses after winning 4 straight. The Thunder are 1-3 SU on the road this season and if we look at a larger sample size, we find they were 12-29 SU away from home last year. In those road contests in 202122 they had a net differential of minus -9.8PPG which was one of the worst average W/L margins in the NBA. This is more of a play against the Thunder who find themselves in an unfamiliar role as a road favorite which has happened once since 2020. The Pistons have a solid cover rate as a home dog at 57.9% since the start of last season. |
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11-06-22 | Titans v. Chiefs -12 | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 31 m | Show |
#472 ASA top play on 10* KANSAS CITY CHIEFS -12 vs Tennessee Titans, 8:20 PM ET - The Titans 5-2 record is very misleading for several reasons: They have been outgained in every game but one and have a negative Net Yardage differential of -0.6Yards Per Play. Their 5 wins have come against teams with a combined 13-22 record. Their two losses to winning teams the Bills (by 34 and Giants by 1-point). They were +10 at Buffalo (similar to KC) and lost by 34. KC 4-3 ATS last seven off a bye with a +14PPG differential. Titans QB Tannehill is ? with an ankle injury. If he can’t go that means rookie QB Malik Willis will start, and he was 6 of 10 last week for 55 yards with an INT and is not a threat in the passing game. Tennessee got a huge rushing game from Derrick Henry last week but that was against the Texans defense that is last in the NFL in rushing defense. That won’t happen here against a Chiefs defense that is 3rd in the NFL in rushing D at 92YPG allowed. Kansas City and Mahomes should put up huge numbers with their 2nd ranked passing offense (296PYPG) versus the 24th ranked Titans pass D (254.7PYPG). |
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11-06-22 | Bills v. Jets UNDER 46 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 25 h 39 m | Show |
#453/454 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 46 Points – Buffalo Bills vs NY Jets, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Divisional Unders have been lights out this year hitting nearly 70% with a record of 27-12-1 to the Under. We have 2 of the top defenses in the NFL in this game with Buffalo ranking #4 in total defense and the Jets #6. Offensively the Jets have been poor with Zach Wilson at the helm. The Bills are top 5 in both sack percentage and sacks per game and Wilson has been terrible under pressure this season. He has the lowest passer rating when pressured in the entire NFL among starting QB’s. NY has scored just 33 total points the last 2 weeks vs New England and Denver. Now facing a top tier Buffalo defense that hasn’t allowed more than 21 points to anyone this season, we see the NY offense continuing to struggle. The Buffalo offense is 2nd in the NFL in scoring at 29 PPG however they got a huge jump on the season in that stat scoring 72 points in their first 2 games. Since then, Buffalo has gotten to 30 points just once in their last 5 games and they are averaging 26 PPG during that stretch. They are facing a Jets defense that hasn’t allowed more than 22 points in any of their last 5 games and they are giving up only 15 PPG over that span. The Jets have gone Under the total in 3 straight games and Buffalo has gone Under 5 consecutive games. Jets games average 42 total points this season and Buffalo’s average 43 total points and this total is set at 47. These 2 teams have combined to play 15 games this season and only 4 have gone Over the total. Since 2019 these AFC East rivals have met 6 times and the average points scored in these games is 37. Only 1 of those 6 meetings has topped 44 points and 4 of the 6 have totaled 37 or less. Under is the play here. |
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11-05-22 | Wake Forest -3.5 v. NC State | Top | 21-30 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 23 m | Show |
#327 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Wake Forest -3.5 over NC State, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - Wake is coming off a horrible performance @ Louisville last Saturday and we like them to bounce back in a big way here. Last week the Deacs were favored by -3 @ Louisville and lost the game 48-21. The yardage in the game was dead even however WF had a ridiculous 8 turnovers in the game, including 6 in the third quarter alone that led to the Cards scoring 35 points in that quarter. Four of Louisville’s five TD’s in the third quarter came on 2 pick 6’s, a 9 yard TD drive and a 33 yard TD drive. It was simply a game where everything went wrong for Wake. Let’s remember prior to that loss, WF was 6-1 on the season with their only loss coming in OT vs Clemson. It was their first road loss of the season after rolling @ Vandy by 20 points and winning @ Florida State by 10. NC State is ranked in the top 25 but they are seriously overvalued right now. That’s because they lost their veteran starting QB Leary three weeks ago and they have not been impressive in their 2 games since he went out. The Wolfpack lost 24-9 @ Syracuse and then last week had to rally from down 21-3 at home vs a bad Virginia Tech team to win 22-21. They made a switch at QB to true freshman Morris last week after getting behind and he rallied them back in his first extended action of the season. This week he’ll be making the first start of his career which is much different that coming in off the bench. Wake has film on the inexperienced starter and we expect him to struggle. The Demon Deacon offense has had all kinds of success vs NC State’s defense averaging 38 PPG over the last 5 meetings and the last 2 years with QB Hartman at the helm they’ve scored 45 and 42 points. NC State has a negative YPP differential on the season and they were outgained in 4 of their 6 games BEFORE QB Leary was injured. Wake is the better team, off a bad loss, with a huge edge at the QB position. Lay the small number. |
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11-05-22 | Baylor v. Oklahoma OVER 61 | Top | 38-35 | Win | 100 | 24 h 28 m | Show |
#359/360 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 61 Points – Baylor vs Oklahoma, Saturday at 3 PM ET - Baylor just continues to pile on points week after week and this OU offense is better than their season long numbers which are still quite good. The Bears are 15th nationally averaging 38.5 PPG and they’ve put up at least 30 in all but 2 of their 8 games this season. They should continue that success here vs an Oklahoma defense that has been a sieve all season long ranking 114th in total D. Throw out their first 3 games vs Kent, UTEP, and Nebraska, and this Sooner defense has allowed 41, 55, 49, 42, and 13 points in Big 12 play. Last week their defense looked like they may have played pretty well holding Iowa State to 13 points, however the Cyclones gained 374 total yards including 300+ through the air. That’s an ISU offense that ranks dead last in the Big12 in total offense and scoring. This week is a whole different animal vs a Baylor offense that ranks 3rd in the conference in both scoring and total offense. Oklahoma’s offense is averaging a more than respectable 33 PPG on the season. However, they played 2 games without their starting QB Gabriel and in his absence they scored only 24 total points in those 2 games. With Gabriel in the lineup, the Sooners are averaging 40 PPG! The Baylor defense stepped up last week holding Texas Tech to 17 points (45-17 final) but prior to that the Bears were allowing 31.5 PPG in league play. We’re getting some value with this total. Last week OU’s game at ISU had a total set at 58. Now only 3 points higher despite Baylor being MUCH better offensively and worse defensively with Iowa State ranking #1 in the conference in both total defense and scoring defense. Let’s take the Over in this one. |
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11-04-22 | Cavs v. Pistons UNDER 220 | Top | 112-88 | Win | 100 | 7 h 58 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UNDER 220 Cleveland Cavaliers @ Detroit Pistons, 7:10 PM ET - We have a great comparative opponent analysis here as the Pistons just faced the Bucks in two games who are very similar to the Cavs in terms of pace, offensive and defensive efficiency. In those two games the Bucks/Pistons totaled 207 and 218 total points. Cleveland has the 2nd best DEFF rating in the league allowing just 1.055-poins per possession and are the 3rd slowest paced team in the NBA. The Pistons are 10th in pace, but have the 4th worst offensive efficiency numbers in the league. Cleveland is the ‘alpha’ team here and they’ll dictate tempo and keep this game from being high scoring. It looks like the Cavs may rest Donovan Mitchell here and his 31PPG will be missed. Last season, in the four meetings between these two teams they totaled 222 or less in all four. The bet here is UNDER. |
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11-03-22 | Eagles v. Texans UNDER 45.5 | Top | 29-17 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
#309/310 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 45.5 Points – Philadelphia Eagles vs Houston Texans, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - The Eagles are 2 TD favorites here so we anticipate them building a lead and sitting on it as they’ve done often this year. The lead the NFL in first half scoring at 21 PPG, however once they get a lead they grind it out averaging just 7 PPG in the 2nd half which ranks them 27th. Philly already runs the ball over 51% of the time ranking them 5th in the NFL and we expect an even heavier dose of the ground game tonight vs the Texans 32nd ranked run defense. That should eat clock especially in the 2nd half with the lead if things play out as planned. Houston’s offense will have big problems scoring against one of the top defensive units in the NFL. The Texans rank 29th in scoring at 16 PPG and they’ve only topped 20 points once the entire season. In their 2 games vs top 10 defenses this season (Denver & Indy) the Texans averaged just 14.5 PPG and 260 YPG. Those were their first 2 games of the season and since that Houston has played 5 teams with defenses ranked 15th or lower. Tonight they face a Philly stop unit that ranks 3rd in total defense, 2nd in YPP defense, and has allowed an average of 13.8 PPG over their last 6 games. Houston games are averaging 39 total points this season while Philly games are averaging 45, both under this posted number. These two are both slower paced teams ranking 19th and 21st so plays should be limited here especially if the Eagles build and lead and milk the clock. We anticipate this game landing in the low 40’s and we’ll grab the Under. |
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11-03-22 | Nuggets v. Thunder +6.5 | Top | 122-110 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Oklahoma City Thunder +6.5 vs. Denver Nuggets, 8:10 PM ET - The value in the number has us on OKC tonight. These two teams met on Oct 22nd in Denver and the Nuggets were favored by 9-points and won by 5. That means they should be a 1-2-point favorite on the road in this matchup. On the season the Thunder have a net differential of +2PPG, while the Nuggets are negative at -2.9PPG. Denver is 1-3 SU on the road this season with the 3rd worst average MOV of -13PPG. The Nuggets have the worst defensive efficiency rating when away this season. OKC is 3-1 SU at home on the season with an average MOV of +5PPG. The Thunder have won four straight games with a pair of solid wins over the Clippers and a big road win in Dallas. In the first meeting this season the Nuggets shot 53% from Deep which is well above their season of 39.4%. We don’t expect a repeat performance for them on the road, plus the Thunder rank 5th in 3-point percentage defense. The Thunder have a budding Star in Shai Gilgeous Alexander who is putting up insane numbers to start the season. Grab the home dog in this one. |
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11-03-22 | Appalachian State -3 v. Coastal Carolina | Top | 28-35 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 46 m | Show |
#313 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Appalachian State -3 over Coastal Carolina, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET - Coastal steps into this home game with a 7-1 record yet they are underdogs vs the 5-3 App State Mountaineers. We agree and feel ASU is the much better team. We’ve felt Coastal has been overrated most of the season and they are not a 7-1 team. Their most recent home game the Chanticleers were whipped by 28 points vs Old Dominion and Coastal was favored by 12 in that game. That loss was no fluke as a rather average ODU offense put up a ridiculous 10.7 YPP to just 5.6 YPP for CC. The Monarchs destroyed Coastal in the trenches as well averaging over 10 YPC to just 2.1 YPC for the Chanticleers. Last week it looks like Coastal rebounded well beating Marshall but that wasn’t the case as they were again dominated gaining just 271 yards while allowing 407. Marshall turnovers and penalties were key in that win for CC. Now they face an App State team that is among the best rushing teams in the nation and we look for CC to get dominated at the line of scrimmage again. App State has played the tougher schedule facing 2 Power 5 opponents (UNC & Texas A&M) while Coastal hasn’t faced a Power 5 opponent and has a strength of schedule ranking of 121st. Despite that App State has a YPP differential of +1.5 and a YPG differential of +150 compared to CC who sits at +0.2 YPP and +22 YPG. Remember this ASU team took UNC to the wire (lost by 2) and beat Texas A&M on the road. We’ll take the much better team and lay only 3 points here. |
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11-02-22 | Hornets +6 v. Bulls | Top | 88-106 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 4 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Charlotte Hornets +5.5 at Chicago Bulls, 7:40 PM ET - Scheduling plays an important part of the equation tonight as the Hornets are rested while Chicago is off a game in Brooklyn last night. Another key factor is the results of both teams previous games. The Hornets are off an embarrassing home loss to the Kings, Chicago is off an upset win over the Nets. Chicago is 0-2 SU/ATS this season when playing the second night of a B2B and have been lost by 5 and 32-points. Dating back to the start of last season, the Bulls are 8-10-1 ATS with a negative differential of minus -3.8PPG. When playing with rest advantage the Hornets are 12-9-1 ATS dating back to the start of last season. Charlotte is 26-19 ATS their last 45 road games with an average margin of victory of minus -0.7PPG which gets us an easy cover here. One key aspect of this game that clearly favors the Hornets is their 7th best 3-point percentage shooting against a Bulls defense that ranks 29th in defending the 3-point line. Chicago’s starter saw extended minutes last night so fatigue becomes a factor late and the Hornets get a solid cover. |
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11-02-22 | Central Michigan v. Northern Illinois -5.5 | Top | 35-22 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 60 m | Show |
#306 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Northern Illinois -5.5 over Central Michigan, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - NIU is undervalued with a 2-6 record in our opinion. Their starting QB Lombardi has played in only 1 of their 4 conference games and the Huskies won that game 39-10 @ Eastern Michigan. It looks like he’ll be back for this one and NIU is just happy to be at home for once. They have played ONE home game since September 17th and we’re now into November. That one home game was a loss to the MAC’s best team, Toledo, however Lombardi didn’t play and Northern still outgained the Rockets by 75 yards in that loss. Toledo had 2 pick 6’s in the game. NIU has now outgained every conference opponent this year despite only having 1 win in MAC play. CMU is also 1-4 in conference play with their only win coming vs league doormat Akron and by only 7 points. The Chips followed that unimpressive win up by getting smoked by a bad Bowling Green team 34-18. That’s a BG team that had only won 7 of their previous 27 games dating back to 2019. In that game CMU pulled their starting QB Richardson who has been struggling and inserted inexperienced freshman Bauer who played OK. He may start here which would be his first road start ever. At worst, it sounds like they may rotate QB’s here so with Lombardi starting for NIU we have a big advantage under center. The Huskies should control the line of scrimmage here ranking 22nd nationally in rushing and they’ve outrushed all but Vanderbilt and Toledo this season. Central Michigan has solid overall defensive numbers vs the run, however they’ve played a very weak schedule of rush offenses including their 2 most recent games vs Akron (128th rushing) and BG (110th rushing). The one good running team they’ve faced in MAC play was Toledo and the Rockets rolled them for 250+ yards on the ground. We like NIU to win by at least a TD here. |
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11-01-22 | Seattle Kraken v. Flames OVER 6 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
#57/58 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 6 Goals (-125) - Seattle Kraken at Calgary Flames, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - Daniel Vladar is the back-up goalie for the Flames and he is expected to get the start here. He has not played in a week and a half. Also, he is facing a surging Seattle team that has scored 3 or more goals in 6 straight games. During this run, the Kraken have averaged 3.7 goals scored per game. Seattle is off a 3-1 win but allowing just 1 goal is very unusual for this Seattle team. In fact, this entire season they have not gone consecutive games that have totaled less than 7 goals. Essentially, the Kraken have been alternating high and low-scoring games this season but mostly the lean has been toward the high side. Prior to the 3-1 win, Seattle was 2-5 last 7 games and allowed 3.7 goals per game during this streak. The Kraken have scored an average of 3.8 goals per game on the road this season. The Flames, however, are on home ice and they are looking to rebound off a 3-2 loss to Alberta rival Edmonton. Calgary will not be in a good mood here and will be very aggressive as they look to get right back into the win column. Keep in mind, the Flames had gone 5-1 first 6 games of this season and averaged scoring 3.5 goals per game in those 6 games. Both teams have been solid on the power play early this season but Seattle has struggled on the penalty kill. Also, the Flames are piling up shots on goal so they will pressure the Kraken here early, often and throughout this one. Over is our play here. |
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11-01-22 | Astros v. Phillies OVER 7.5 | Top | 0-7 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 17 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 7.5 Runs – Houston Astros vs Philadelphia Phillies, Monday at 8 PM ET - We like the value on the total here. We were on the Under in Game 2 which was 7 runs and that was with Philadelphia ace Wheeler and Houston #2 starter Valdez on the mound. Now these 2 push down to their #4 and #3 starters with McCullers and Suarez and the total went up only a half a run. The Phillies are back home where they excel offensively and put runs on the board. In their 5 playoff games at Citizens Bank Park they scored 35 runs for an average of 7 RPG. Most of those games were vs high level starting pitchers including Darvish & Musgrove for San Diego and Strider and Morton for Atlanta. On the season the Phillies scored the 4th most runs at home with an average of 5.3 per game. Houston has averaged 4.6 RPG over their 9 game post-season scoring at least 4 in 7 of those 9 games. That includes Houston putting up 10 runs in the first 2 games of this series facing Philadelphia’s 2 ace starters Wheeler and Nola. Those 2 starters allowed 9 ER’s in 9.1 innings pitched in games 1 & 2. The Astros have had more success vs left handers this year compared to right handed pitchers. They’ve hit .260 on the season vs lefties (.238 vs RH) and they are averaging 5.1 RPG (4.4 vs RH). Suarez pitched in relief last week in this series and the one start he had vs Houston (in early October) he was shelled for 6 ER’s in just 3 innings of work. The drop down in starters on both sides should provide both teams with a solid opportunity to be successful offensively. Weather will be much better tonight with temps in the 60’s and light winds blowing from left to right. We like OVER 7.5 Runs here. |
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11-01-22 | Warriors v. Heat -105 | Top | 109-116 | Win | 100 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Miami Heat Even vs. Golden State Warriors, 7:40 PM ET - We get two elite teams in this showdown with both coming off 2 straight losses making this game a higher priority. Last Thursday these same two teams met in Golden State with the Warriors coming out on top 123-110 as a minus -5.5-point favorite. That natural swing in the line should have the Heat favored by -2.5-points here so let’s grab the value with Miami. The Heat were 36-15 SU in the regular season at home last year with a +/- of +5.8PPG. Golden State is 41-50 SU since 2020 on the road with a negative differential of minus -1.7PPG. The Warriors live and die by the 3-pointer and the Heat historically under coach Spoelstra defend the arc as well as anyone. This season they are 26th in the league in 3-point percentage D but they’ve been top 11 the past three years, 2nd a year ago. The Warriors defense is 30th in the NBA in points allowed this season and 23rd in defensive efficiency. Miami has covered 5 of the last seven at home versus the Warriors. Bet the home team! |
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10-31-22 | Bengals v. Browns UNDER 45.5 | Top | 13-32 | Win | 100 | 19 h 13 m | Show |
#277/278 ASA PLAY ON Under 45.5 Points – Cincinnati Bengals vs Cleveland Browns, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - The Cincinnati defense has quietly become one of the best in the NFL this season. Ranked 6th overall DVOA (per Football Outsiders) and they’ve allowed 20 points or fewer in every game (in regulation) with the exception of their match up vs New Orleans. The impressive part about their defensive performance this season is they’ve faced the 8th toughest offensive schedule thus far. We expect this defense to have success vs a Cleveland offense that started the season red hot but has tailed off scoring 20 points or less in 3 of their last 4 games. In their last 2 contests, the Browns have scored a total of 35 points and averaged just 332 total yards vs defenses ranked 23rd (Baltimore) and 15th (New England). The Browns will run the ball a lot (32 carries per game – 5th in the NFL) and they will be without TE Njoku who has become QB Brissett’s favorite target with 34 receptions on the season. The Cleveland defense has been up and down this season but they get two huge contributors back tonight with DE’s Garrett and Clowney both expected to play. They’re coming off their most impressive defensive performance of the season holding a very potent Baltimore offense to just 254 total yards on only 4.0 YPP. Their weakness this season has been vs the run but last week kept Baltimore (3rd in the NFL in rushing) to only 3.6 YPC. We’re not sure Cincinnati can even take advantage of Cleveland if they do struggle to stop the run here as they run the ball very little (36% of the time) and they average just 87 YPG on the ground. The Bengal passing game takes a huge hit with WR Chase out – top 6 in receptions, receiving yards, and receiving TD’s. Division Totals 25-10 to the UNDER entering Sunday and we’ll call for another one on Monday night. |
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10-31-22 | Hawks +3.5 v. Raptors | Top | 109-139 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 3 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Atlanta Hawks +3.5 @ Toronto Raptors, 7:40 PM ET - The one negative to this wager is the fact the Raptors are off a home loss which we don’t like but the value in the number clearly favors the Hawks. Atlanta is also off a loss in Milwaukee by 8-points 115-123. The Hawks were getting +5.5-points in that game against the 5-0 Bucks who have an average margin of victory of +10.4PPG. Now they are catching +4 at Toronto? Another comparison is the Raptors were just-3.5 at home against the 76ers who were playing without Embiid. Both teams have solid spread results when coming off a loss so that’s a wash. Were the Hawks have a big advantage is offensively as they average 1.164-points per possession (8th) compared to the Raptors 1.104PPP which is 24th in the league. Defensively these two teams are relatively even with both giving up around the league average in terms of points per possession. The Hawks have one of the best scoring point guards in the league in Trae Young who could be in line for a big game seeing the Raps just gave up 44-points to the Sixers Maxey. |
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10-30-22 | 49ers v. Rams UNDER 42 | Top | 31-14 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 6 m | Show |
#273/274 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 42 Points – San Francisco 49ers vs LA Rams, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - We were on this UNDER the first time these 2 met this season back in September and we’re on it again. In that game the total was set at 42 points and it was an easy Under with SF winning 24-9. The 2 teams combined for only 584 total yards on 4.7 YPP. This rivalry has now played to the Under in 5 of the last 6 meetings and they’ve averaged just 40 total points in those 6 games. The defenses are the superior units on both teams. They both rank in the top 5 in total defense and they know each other very well. San Fran is coming off by far their worst defensive performance of the season allowing 44 points to a potent KC offense so you can expect the Niners stop unit to play with a chip on their shoulder here. Prior to that SF was allowing only 14.8 PPG. The Rams defense has been lights out as well since their opening season loss to Buffalo where they allowed 31 points. Since that game LA is giving up only 19 PPG. Offensively the Rams have fallen off a cliff this season averaging only 17 PPG (29th in the NFL) after putting up 27 PPG (6th in the NFL) last year. San Francisco isn’t a whole lot better averaging just over 20 PPG on the season and they will be without one of their top offensive weapons, WR/RB Deebo Samuel, who will sit with an injury. In the first meeting Samuel accounted for 117 to SF’s 327 total yards. The Niners offense has faced only 2 top 10 defenses this season (current ranking) and they have averaged just 17 PPG in those 2. The Rams have faced 3 top 10 defenses this season and they have scored only 29 total points in those games (9.6 PPG). Division Totals are 25-10 to the Under this season and we see another low scoring game here. |
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10-30-22 | Cardinals +3.5 v. Vikings | Top | 26-34 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 59 m | Show |
#263 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Arizona Cardinals +3.5 over Minnesota Vikings, nday at 1:00 PM ET - The Vikings are seen to have a scheduling advantage here as they are coming off a bye but it’s very minimal at best because Arizona played last Thursday so they’ve had 10 days off as well. The Vikings are 5-1 SU but they’ve been extremely fortunate to get to that mark. They rank 27th in the NFL in YPP differential at -0.67 despite playing an easy schedule (20th SOS thus far). The only teams they’ve faced that currently has a winning records are Philadelphia and the Vikings were dominated in that game (24-7 loss) and Miami (Vikings won by 8) who actually outgained Minnesota by over 100 yards and had to start rookie Thompson at QB. Since getting toasted by KC in the opener, the Cardinals have outgained 5 of their last 6 opponents. Their offense has some momentum coming in off a 42 point outburst vs a solid Saints defense and facing a bad Minnesota defense (27th in total defense) we expect the Arizona offense to have a very solid day. That success coincided with the return of their top WR Hopkins who had over 100 yards receiving in his first game back from suspension. QB Murray is very comfortable with him and has much better numbers when Hopkins is on the field. Also home field advantage is limited at best in Arizona games as they are a much better road team than a home team. They have a 10-2 SU regular season road record since the start of last year and as a road underdog the Cards have covered 8 straight as a road dog winning all 8 games OUTRIGHT. We feel Minnesota is overvalued here and getting more than a FG with Arizona is the way to go. |
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10-30-22 | Wyoming v. Hawaii UNDER 51 | Top | 27-20 | Win | 100 | 25 h 49 m | Show |
#193/194 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 51 Points – Wyoming vs Hawaii, Saturday at 12 Midnight ET - We have 2 of the worst offenses in college football in this game and we do not see them reaching 50 points. Hawaii ranks 115th in total offense (out of 131) and Wyoming ranks 114th. If we subtract games vs FCS opponents and any OT points, Wyoming is averaging 21 PPG which would rank them outside the top 100 and Hawaii is averaging just 17 PPG ranking them 115th. Both teams are slower paced as well with Wyoming ranking 108th averaging 1 offensive snap every 27 seconds and Hawaii averages 1 play every 25 seconds which is 54th nationally. Needless to say this should be a slower paced game without many offensive snaps. Defensively Wyoming is quite solid. They rank 55th in total YPG allowed and give up only 5.3 YPP. The Cowboys have held 4 of their last 6 opponents to 14 points or fewer. Their last 2 opponents, Utah State & New Mexico, have very similar offensive numbers to Hawaii and Wyoming held them each to just 14 points. Hawaii’s defense does not have impressive year long numbers. However, they played some very impressive offenses early in the season including Michigan & Western Kentucky and gave up piles of yards and points in those games so the year long numbers aren’t overly accurate. As of late and playing lower tier offenses comparable to Wyoming, the Hawaii defense has been impressive. They have allowed 17 points or fewer in 4 of their last 5 games including 16, 16, and 17 points the last 3 weeks after they had their bye back on October 1st. Last year these 2 faced off and scored 52 points and both offenses were drastically better than this year’s versions. We just don’t see either team doing much offensively here and we’ll grab the Under. |
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10-29-22 | Phillies v. Astros UNDER 7 | Top | 2-5 | Push | 0 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
#953 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 7 Runs - Philadelphia Phillies vs Houston Astros, Saturday at 8 PM ET - The Phillies took game 1 of the series in a higher scoring 6-5 game but we like tonight’s match up to stay Under 7. The Phils have their top starter on the mound tonight in Zach Wheeler. He has been outstanding all season long but he’s turned his game up a notch in the post-season. He has started 4 games in the playoffs totaling 25.1 innings and he’s allowed just 10 hits during that stretch and 5 earned runs. The Houston line up has seen very little of Wheeler with 11 total plate appearances among their entire team and he did not face them this season giving him a big advantage here in our opinion. The Phillies will face Houston starter Valdez and he has been lights out as well in the post-season. He’s pitched 12.2 innings in the playoffs giving up just 8 hits and 2 ER’s. Both are low HR pitchers allowing 0.76 and 0.50 per innings so the long ball will be tough to come by tonight after they combined for 3 round trippers last night. After these 2 exit, the Houston bullpen has been one of the best in baseball all season with a 2.67 ERA and while Philadelphia’s relievers weren’t as impressive during the regular season, in their 12 playoff games their ERA is just 2.81. Neither of these teams has a great batting average in the post-season, both right around .230, but the Phillies have been fortunate to hit .307 in the playoffs with runners in scoring position, well above their team batting average. Some regression is expected on that end, especially vs Valdez who has held this line up to a .135 batting average (lifetime) in 42 plate appearances. When Wheeler and Valdez have started in the post-season (4 starts) their games have averaged a total of 5 runs. We see another low scoring game tonight in Houston. |
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10-29-22 | Missouri +3.5 v. South Carolina | Top | 23-10 | Win | 100 | 17 h 33 m | Show |
#127 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Missouri +3.5 over South Carolina, Saturday at 4 PM ET - South Carolina is coming off what looks like a solid 30-24 win over Texas A&M in a home night game last week. The fact is, the Gamecocks were outgained by 112 yards in that win but got out to a 17-0 lead in the 1st quarter and it took them 19 yards of TOTAL offense to get out to that 17 point lead. SC returned the opening kick for a TD, then kicked a FG (after 0 yards gained) and scored a TD (after 19 yards gained) following 2 A&M turnovers. Then on top of that, A&M lost their starting QB King with the Aggies making a comeback cutting the lead to 3 and were left with their 3rd string QB who is a freshman from that point on. South Carolina is on a 4 game winning streak which is giving us some value here. Last week’s win was deceiving as we mentioned, and prior to that they topped Kentucky who was playing without their starting QB and probable first round draft pick Will Levis. Prior to that they had beaten FCS South Carolina State and Charlotte who ranks among the worst teams in FBS. Not a great 4 game run despite them winning all 4. Meanwhile Mizzou has showed some really solid play this year when stepping up in class. They gave Georgia all they could handle actually leading the Bulldogs 22-12 into the 4th quarter before UGA scored 2 TD’s to win 26-22 (SOUTH CARO LOST TO UGA 48-7 at home). The Tigers went to Florida and lost by a TD but outgained the Gators by 73 yards and they lost in OT by 3 points @ Auburn outgaining the host in that game as well. Missouri brings in a high level defense ranking in the top 20 nationally in both YPG and YPP allowed. They also run the ball well (157 YPG) and they are facing a Gamecock defense that ranks 98th defending the run. This sets up as a letdown afternoon game for SC after their rousing atmosphere last Saturday evening vs A&M. They are 1-7-1 ATS following an ATS win and we feel Missouri is actually the better team here. Take the points. |
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10-28-22 | Bulls v. Spurs OVER 228.5 | Top | 124-129 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 228.5 Chicago Bulls at San Antonio Spurs, 8:40 PM ET - Tempo or pace plays an important component of this wager as we have one fast paced team in the Spurs (102.7 possessions per game) and the Bulls who are slightly faster than league average at 100. San Antonio is the 4th fastest team in the NBA, Chicago is 14th. But the Bulls pace numbers are a little misleading as four of the five teams they’ve faced are some of the slowest paced teams in the NBA. The one game they faced a fast-paced team like the Spurs they finished with 233 points against Indiana and that Total was set at 234.5. In that comparison, the Spurs are just as fast as Indiana, way better offensively with the 9th most efficient offense and nearly identical defensively. San Antonio has struggled defensively allowing 121.6PPG but are also scoring 118PPG. The strength and weaknesses of both teams will exploit each other here. Both teams shoot the 3-ball well with the Spurs hitting 38.6% from deep which is 8th in the NBA. The Bulls hit 37.1% from beyond the arc which is good for 13th in the league. Neither team defends the deep ball well either with the Spurs ranking 25th in 3PT% “D” and the Bulls ranking 29th. Both teams have similar makeups to last years rosters and in the two meetings a season ago they put up 229 and 253 total points. Easy Over! |
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10-27-22 | Ravens v. Bucs UNDER 46 | Top | 27-22 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
#101/102 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 46 Points – Baltimore Ravens vs Tampa Bay Bucs, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - TB’s offense is broken right now. They rank 22nd in total offense, 26th in scoring offense and 32nd, dead last, in rushing offense. They have been held to 20 points or less in 5 of their 7 games and the last two weeks they scored 18 vs Pittsburgh (ranked 28th in total defense) and 3 points vs Carolina (ranked 18th in total defense). Their games this season are averaging just 35 total points. The Baltimore defense is allowing 23 PPG, however much of that game in a game they allowed 42 points vs Miami early in the season when the Fins were coming from behind and put up 28 points in the 4th quarter. Minus that game the Ravens defense has been quite solid giving up an average of 19.8 PPG. The Baltimore offense got off to a hot start this season but they have not topped 23 points in any of their last 4 games, all going Under the total. These 2 teams have combined to play 14 games this season with only 3 going Over the total. With the spread as of this writing sitting at TB -1, the expected final score would be right around 23-22 or 24-22 in favor of the Bucs. We don’t see either team getting to those numbers. Under on Thursday night. |
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10-27-22 | Mavs v. Nets UNDER 228.5 | Top | 129-125 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 13 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 228.5 Dallas Mavericks @ Brooklyn Nets, 7:40 PM ET - Brooklyn is coming off an embarrassing loss in Milwaukee last night and we should see a much better effort at home against the Mavs. The Nets/Bucks had a Total set of 228.5 last night and managed just 209 combined points. This number of 228.5 is the highest number set on a Mavs game this year by 9-full points. Pace will play an important role in this outcome as we have the 3rd slowest paced team in the Mavs and 15th in Brooklyn. When it comes to offensive efficiency the Nets are 12th in the league at 1.115-points per possession, the Mavericks are 1st at 1.231PPP which is not sustainable. In comparison, last season Dallas had an OEFF of 1.129PPP which was around league average. Last season in the two regular season meetings these two combined for 224 and 201 total points. Both teams have shot well above expectations early on but that should trend down as the weeks go on. Our projections have this game in the low 220’s. Bet UNDER. |
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10-26-22 | Spurs v. Wolves OVER 233.5 | Top | 122-134 | Win | 100 | 9 h 1 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 233.5 San Antonio Spurs @ Minnesota Timberwolves, 8 PM ET - This is a home-home series as these same two teams just met on Oct 24th in Minnesota. That game finished with 221 points and had a posted Total of 235. That game could have easily gone over the number but each team had an abnormal quarter. After putting up a combined 124-points in the first half it looked like a sure Over bet winner. Then the Wolves managed just 14-points in the 3rd quarter while the Spurs put up 12-points in the 4th. We should see another high scoring affair here with two teams that like to play fast. The Spurs are 4th in pace of play, the T-Wolves are 5th so we know there will be plenty of possession for a high scoring game. Minnesota is 13th in defensive efficiency, the Spurs are 21st so neither are exceptional on that end of the floor. San Antonio is scoring 117PPG, Minnesota is putting up 115.8PPG. Last season when these two teams met they put huge totals in 2 of the four games with 288 and 248-points. The oddsmakers lowered this Total by a few points so let’s grab the value and bet OVER. |
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10-26-22 | Oilers -110 v. Blues | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 60 m | Show |
#45 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Edmonton Oilers -115 on the Money Line over St Louis Blues, Wednesday at 8:05 PM ET - This is a great early season set-up filled with value. Blues got off to a hot start this season and were 3-0 before a shutout loss at Winnipeg in their most recent game. However, here are a couple of keys. St Louis has averaged scoring only 1 goal last two games. The Blue have only played one team that was a playoff team from last season and that was the Oilers at Edmonton last week. Yes, St Louis won that game 2-0 but it included an empty net goal and was truly a game that could have gone either way. It was evenly played 5 on 5 but the Blues got a power play goal. That of course makes this a revenge game and then you look at the Oilers schedule and they have already played 4 playoff teams from last season! Edmonton is off of a big win over Pittsburgh and that is a momentum boost for this club as they now head on the road for the first time this season. The odds makers are sharp, of course, and it is with good reason that Edmonton is favored here on the road for this one! Other than their shutout loss at home to these Blues, the Oilers have scored an average of 4.4 goals per game in their other 5 games. They are so dangerous offensively and they will have a different gameplan here for the rematch and we don't see the Blues as being able to keep up in this one. Look for the firepower (and determination!) of revenge-minded Edmonton to prove to be too much in this one! Lay it! We think we’re getting some nice value getting this revenging road team at a great price of just -115 in this one with the Oilers as it is the perfect set-up for an away win.
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10-25-22 | Warriors v. Suns UNDER 226 | Top | 105-134 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 226 Golden State Warriors @ Phoenix Suns, 10 PM ET - Money and tickets have driven his number up throughout the betting markets which gives us some added value on the Under. The Warriors have scored 123 and 130 in their last two games but those results came against Sacramento and Denver which rank 22nd and 29th in defensive efficiency. Tonight, they face a Phoenix team that allows just 1.053-points per possession which is 5th in the NBA. That’s not a shock either as the Suns were 3rd last season in DEFF. Golden State cannot maintain the pace of play they are currently playing at of 109.6 possessions per game. A great comparison is what they averaged last season of 98.3 possessions per game. Phoenix will want to slow this home game down as they are the 4th slowest paced team in the league at this point of the season. In fact, Phoenix just played a similar team to the Warriors in terms of scoring when they went to Portland who is averaging 117.3PPG and held them to 102-points in regulation. In the four meetings last season these two teams combined for 200, 214, 223 and 210 total points. That trend continues here…BET UNDER! |
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10-24-22 | Bears v. Patriots -8 | Top | 33-14 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 37 m | Show |
#476 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New England -8 over Chicago, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - The Pats are better than their 3-3 record as they rank 7th in the NFL in YPP differential. They’ve outgained 4 of their last 6 opponents with Green Bay and Miami their only opponents to outgain them. Starting QB Mac Jones looks like he will return tonight, however if for some reason he does not back up QB Bailey Zappe has really played well and last week he put up over 300 yards passing and completed over 70% of his passes. Chicago will be in trouble offensively here vs a Patriot defense that has allowed 15 points over their last 2 games. They’ve outscored their last 2 opponents 67-15 and the defense has allowed just 4.9 YPP over their last 2 games vs Detroit (ranked 2nd in total offense) and Cleveland (ranked 5th in total offense). Now they face a Chicago team ranked 28th in total offense so we just don’t see the Bears doing much on that side of the ball. Chicago has scored 12 points or less in 3 of their last 5 games and the only 2 games they topped that number was vs Houston (ranked 31st in total defense) and Minnesota (ranked 26t in total defense). The Patriots have scored 24 or more in 4 straight games and that’ll be enough to get this cover. Belichick is 62-32 ATS in October and we look for his defense to own Chicago and QB Fields in this game. Lay the points. |
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10-23-22 | Chiefs v. 49ers +1 | Top | 44-23 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 13 m | Show |
#470 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Francisco 49ers +1 over Kansas City Chiefs, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - We love looking strong and hard at defensive home dogs and we have one here. The 49ers defense has been outstanding this season ranking 1st in total defense and 2nd in passing defense, rushing defense, and scoring defense. They are allowing opposing teams to run just 5.3 PLAYS in the red zone this season which is tops in the NFL. San Fran is also getting some reinforcements back on that side of the ball (DE Joey Bosa included) after a number of players missed last week. The Niners are also coming off an embarrassing loss @ Atlanta last week but it was a tough situational spot playing back to back Sundays on the east coast AND the injury situation for SF last week was not good. Offensively they get LT Williams, one of the best in the NFL, back this week which is huge. They also picked up RB McCaffrey from Carolina and he will be in the line up this week, especially in red zone situations. QB Garoppolo and company should have plenty of success vs a banged up KC secondary that has allowed 75% of their opponents yards to come through the air (most in the NFL) and has given up at least 2 TD passes in every game this season, they only NFL defense to do that. SF comes in undervalued with a 3-3 record but they’ve been a bit unlucky with injuries this season. The fact is, they have the 2nd best YPP differential in the NFL behind only Buffalo so they are absolutely better than their record. They are getting a KC team here coming off their huge game vs Buffalo and in their most recent 2 road games the Chiefs lost @ Indianapolis and beat a down Tampa team despite getting outgained by 1.0 YPP in that game. Under head coach Shanahan, the 49ers have covered the spread 15 of the last 20 times they’ve been an underdog. We like them on Sunday. |
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10-23-22 | Bucs v. Panthers UNDER 39.5 | Top | 3-21 | Win | 100 | 24 h 16 m | Show |
#461/462 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 39.5 Points – Tampa Bay Bucs vs Carolina Panthers, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - This line opened 41 and has dropped to 39.5. Not enough in our opinion. How many points is Carolina going to score in this game? They just traded away their 2 top offensive weapons – RB McCaffrey and WR Anderson – and they’ll be starting 3rd string QB PJ Walker again this week. Last Sunday they scored only 3 points offensively as their lone TD came on an interception. McCaffrey accounted for 158 of their 203 total yards and he is now in San Francisco playing for the Niners. Starting QB Walker has completed only 57% of his passes in his NFL career and last week he threw for 60 yards vs the Rams. He’s now facing a TB defense that ranks 7th in pass defense and opponents are averaging just 5.6 yards per pass attempt (5th best in the NFL). The Panthers have scored a total of 63 points over their last 4 games for an average of 15.7 PPG. However, they have also scored THREE defensive TD’s during that stretch so their offense is actually averaging a paltry 10 PPG and they are in far worse shape offensively right now than they were for any of those 4 games. So why not just lay 13 points with Tampa Bay in this game? We don’t trust their offense. Last week vs a Pittsburgh team that was without many of their key players in the secondary, the Bucs could only score 18 points. They have been held to 21 points in every game but one this season and they can’t run the ball (last in the NFL at 67 YPG). Carolina’s strength has been their pass defense allowing 223 YPG on 6.6 yards per pass attempt. The Tampa offense ranks 21st in YPG and PPG despite playing 4 defenses ranked 15th or worse including 2 ranked 27th (TB scored 21) and 29th (TB scored 18). Tampa probably has to get to 30+ to give this game a chance at going Over the total and we just don’t see that happening. We go Under here. |
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10-22-22 | Boise State +2.5 v. Air Force | Top | 19-14 | Win | 100 | 30 h 31 m | Show |
#407 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Boise State +2.5 over Air Force, Saturday at 7 PM ET - We love the way Boise is trending here after QB Bachmeier decided to transfer and they’ve been starting Green at QB. The defense was always very good, they just couldn’t get anything going on offense with Bachmeier under center. If we throw out their FCS game vs UT Martin, the offense under Bachmeier averaged 19 PPG and just 268 total YPG. In their 2 games since Green took over they have crushed San Diego State and Fresno State, the Broncos are averaging 37.5 PPG and 446 total YPG. As we stated, the defense has been great ranking 2nd in the nation in YPG (235) allowed and 5th in YPP allowed (4.1). The Boise rush defense has been top notch allowing just 101 YPG on 3.0 YPC which is key vs an Air Force offense thar runs the ball an average of 59 times per game (2nd most in the nation). Boise has also had two full weeks to prepare for this offense coming off last week’s bye. Air Force is coming off a big win over UNLV but we feel they are trending downward. The Rebels had a number of injuries last week including their starting QB who didn’t play in the game giving AF a big advantage. In their 2 games without their starting QB Brumfield, UNLV has lost by a combined score of 82-14 which tells you how important he is. Prior to last week, the Falcons struggled to beat a down Navy team 13-10 and lost to Utah State with USU playing their back up QB. While Boise is off their bye, AF is playing for the 8th consecutive week. Undervalued vs Overvalued here in our opinion. Take the dog Boise State. |
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10-22-22 | Eastern Michigan v. Ball State OVER 58.5 | Top | 20-16 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 36 m | Show |
#363/364 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 58.5 Points - Eastern Michigan vs Ball State, Saturday at 2 PM ET - Let’s start with the defenses in this game, or should we say the lack of defense. In terms of basic scoring defense these two units rank near the bottom of college football in points allowed per game with EMU giving up 32.7PPG (113th) while Ball State allows 29.3PPG (89th). Both teams allow 5.3-Yards Per Play which is slightly above the national average, but these two teams have played the 124th and 119th easiest schedule. Ball State is 95th in Yards Per Point defense allowing 1-point for every 13 yards gained. EMU is 120th in YPPT defense giving up a point for every 11.6 yards gained. The offenses for both teams have had some highs and lows this season. Eastern Michigan has scored 30 or more points in 3 games against FBS schools but are coming off 10-points last week against Northern Illinois. UNI dominated the time of possession with their running game (287-rush yards) that is 29th best in the nation, which limited the Eagles offensive opportunities. That won’t be the case here as Ball State is 83rd in rushing at 133.7RYPG. Ball State is averaging 25.7PPG on the season but 30.3PPG in conference play. Pace of play favors a high scoring game here also with Ball State ranking as the 8th fastest paced team in college football, Eastern ranks 42nd. Historically this has been a high scoring series with 5 of the last six meetings going Over the total and 13 of the last sixteen overall. |
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10-21-22 | Padres v. Phillies OVER 7.5 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 27 m | Show |
#971/972 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 7.5 Runs – San Diego Padres vs Philadelphia Phillies, Friday at 7:35 PM ET - Two polar opposite ballparks in this series as San Diego is a pitcher’s park that averages 7.32 total RPG on the season while Philadelphia is a hitter’s park that averages over 9 total RPG on the year. The Phillies averaged 5 RPG at home this season which was the 4th most in MLB. In their 2 post season games they scored 9 & 8 runs vs a very good Atlanta pitching staff and the shelled both starters – Strider and Morton – who are top of the line rotation guys. Philadelphia has scored at least 4 runs in 19 of their last 23 home games. They’ll be facing SD starter Musgrove who has been pitching well but struggled in his only appearance vs Philly this year where they lit him up for 6 ER’s in 6 innings pitched. The Padres will face Philly left hander Suarez who is considered their 3rd or 4th best starter. He has an ERA at home of 4.27 and his WHIP on the season is a rather high 1.33. San Diego has been a solid hitting team vs lefties averaging 4.5 RPG on the season and on the road they’ve put up almost 5.5 RPG vs south paws. Weather looks good tonight with temps in the 60’s and light winds blowing out. Over is the call tonight. |
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10-20-22 | Saints v. Cardinals UNDER 44.5 | Top | 34-42 | Loss | -110 | 46 h 34 m | Show |
#303/304 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 44.5 Points – New Orleans Saints vs Arizona Cardinals, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - The Saints were without 7 offensive starters to end last game and could struggle here vs a surging Arizona defense. New Orleans is in shambles at the WR position with Thomas and Landry most likely out again. Olave looks like he may come back. Both QB’s for the Saints – Winston & Dalton – are injured and were limited in practice and they’re on a short week. Arizona’s defense has played outstanding the last 3 weeks limiting their opponents to 12, 20, and 19 points. The last 2 results listed were impressive holding 2 top 8 scoring offenses, Philly & Seattle, well below their season average point totals. Along with that, the Cardinal defense limited Seattle to just 4.5 YPP (they average 6.2 YPP) and Philadelphia to 5.0 YPP (they average 5.6 YPP). We look for New Orleans banged up offense to struggle here. On the other side, the Arizona offense has been poor all season long. Last week they averaged only 4.4 YPP and scored 3 offensive points vs a Seattle defense that ranks 30th in total defense and YPP allowed. The only TD Arizona came up with was a defensive scored. They rank dead last in the NFL in YPP at only 4.8. They do get WR Hopkins back for this game from a suspension but he hasn’t played all year so we don’t expect a huge jump. While Hopkins returns, the Cardinals lose WR Brown to injury and he has been their top WR this year so those 2 things offset each other. New Orleans defense is much healthier than their offense at this point. They have given up some points over the last 3 games vs Cincinnati, Seattle, and Minnesota but they are still limiting opponents to 2.5 red zone scoring attempts per game and 1.2 red zone TD’s per game which both rank 5th best in the NFL. They’ve been a bit unlucky allowing opponents to score 1 point for every 13 yards gained which ranks them 31st in that category after ranking 6th last year (1 point for every 16 yards gained by opponents). We think the Saints defense will look much better in this game vs one of the worst offenses in the league so far this season. Unders continue to rule the day in the NFL with a record of 56-36 (61%) on the season and this total is set 2 points higher than the average NFL score in 2022 which is 43 total points. Under is the play on Thursday night. |
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10-20-22 | Bucks v. 76ers -3.5 | Top | 90-88 | Loss | -105 | 44 h 3 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia 76ers -3.5 vs Milwaukee Bucks, Thursday, 7:30 PM ET - This is a really good spot to back the 76ers who have a game under their belt against the Bucks playing their first game which is also on the road. Not too mention, the Sixers are off a loss to the Celtics in their season opener on Tuesday night. Philly has been solid off a loss with a 33-28-2 ATS record dating back to the start of 2020 and they’ve won those games by an average of +4PPG. Philly has the 4th best average Margin of Victory at home since 2020 at +6PPG. The Bucks may struggle out of the gate this season with All-Star Khris Middleton sidelined for 4-6 weeks and now Pat Connaughton out for this game. You may be surprised to know the Bucks were not a good road underdog last season with a 6-11 ATS record and a negative differential of minus -9PPG. The road team won all three meetings a year ago but that changes tonight. Lay the short number with Philly. |
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10-19-22 | Cavs v. Raptors UNDER 215 | Top | 105-108 | Win | 100 | 20 h 28 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 215. Cleveland Cavaliers at Toronto Raptors, 7:40 PM ET - The Raptors has essentially their roster intact from a year ago but the Cavs made the biggest offseason splash in the league with a trade for Donovan Mitchell (Jazz). Cleveland will take some time to adjust with Mitchell on the floor with Darius Garland so expect some lower scoring early on. These two teams were two of the best on the defensive end of the court and that’s not going to change this season. The Raptors were 10th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.106-points per possession. The Cavs were 7th at 1.097PPP. Both teams played extremely slow with the Cavs being the 26th slowest paced team in the league, while the Raptors were 27th. Neither team was great offensively with the Raptors ranking 15th in offensive efficiency, the Cavaliers were 20th at 1.119PPP. Under is the play here. |
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10-19-22 | Phillies v. Padres UNDER 7 | Top | 5-8 | Loss | -125 | 5 h 52 m | Show |
#953/954 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 7 Runs – Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego Padres, Wednesday at 4:30 PM ET - The Phillies took game 1 last night by a final score of 2-0 with the two teams combining for only 4 hits and 7 total baserunners. We see a similar result this afternoon. Both teams have high level starters taking the mound with the Phillies Aaron Nola and the Padres Blake Snell. Nola has been red hot in the post-season not allowing a single run in 12.2 innings pitched. Going back to the end of the regular season, he has not allowed an earned run in 4 of his last 5 starts. He faced the Padres just once this season and allowed 1 earned run in 7 innings with 10 strikeouts. San Diego will counter with Blake Snell who held the high powered LA Dodger line up to 1 earned run in 5.1 innings of work last Friday. He has been sharp as of late allowing just 5 earned runs in his last 6 starts combined. In 78 combined plate appearances, the current Phillies line up is hitting just .191 lifetime vs Snell. Neither team has been lighting it up at the plate in the post-season with Philadelphia hitting .218 and San Diego hitting .219. Both have relied heavily on the HR to put runs on the board and that’ll be tough today as both Nola (0.83) and Snell (0.77) are allowing well less than 1 HR per 9 innings pitched. Petco Park is always known as a pitcher’s park and this year was no exception as the average total runs scored here is 7.32 for the season. With the wind blowing in from left field this afternoon at 10 MPH, this game sets up as another low scoring affair. Let’s take the Under in this one. |
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10-18-22 | 76ers v. Celtics UNDER 216.5 | Top | 117-126 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 12 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 216.5 Philadelphia 76ers @ Boston Celtics, 7:30 PM ET - The Under is the play here between a pair of Eastern Conference teams that don’t like each other. Last season in four regular season meetings these two combined for 222, 210, 211 and 175-total points. The highest scoring game came in mid-February when the Celtics scored a ridiculous 135-points. The O/U’s on all four games were set lower than this number. The Celts were 24th in pace of play last season, the 76ers were 25th. Boston was the 2nd best defensive efficiency team, the Sixers were 12th. In the last six meetings between these two teams in Boston the Under is 5-1. We expect the offenses for both teams to struggle in the opener and predict a low scoring game. Bet UNDER! |
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10-18-22 | Guardians +165 v. Yankees | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 36 m | Show |
#925 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cleveland Guardians +150 over NY Yankees, Tuesday at 4:05 PM ET - Game 5 with the winner moving on to face Houston in the ALCS. We like the value here with Cleveland and Civale on the mound. He has pitched very well down the stretch allowing 2 ER’s or less in 8 of his last 9 starts. Over his last 10 starts, he’s allowing just 1.9 ER’s per 5 innings pitched. While Civale’s ERA is 4.92, he’s pitched better than that with an xERA of 3.80 and an xFIP of 3.62. Yesterday the NY starter was scheduled to be Taillon and we really liked that match up for Cleveland. Now that Cortes will start, we still think the Guardians have some advantages. First he will be starting a very short 3 days rest after throwing 92 pitches. Cortes has only done that once in his career and allowed 4 runs on 6 hits in just 2.1 innings. Second, Cleveland has some decent success vs Cortes a few days ago with 9 baserunners in just 5 innings but they were only able to come up with 2 runs. After struggling at the plate but still getting the 2 game sweep of TB in their wildcard series, Cleveland has been the better offensive team here with 14 more hits so far in the first 4 games. They’ve outhit the Yankees in 3 of the 4 games with yesterday’s game ending with each team having 6 hits. NY is hitting just .177 in this series and we don’t see them breaking out tonight. The bullpens are nearly even with a slight edge on the season to Cleveland with a better ERA and WHIP. As of late the Cleveland relievers have been nearly unhittable with an ERA of 0.74 through the last 5 games and 1.73 over the last 10. There is an outside chance that Bieber will start this game for Cleveland and we’re still on board with that. He’ll be coming off 3 days rest similar to Cortes (discussed above) and at that point we’d call starters even (short rest & similar stats) but we like the way the Cleveland bullpen and hitters are performing more so than the Yankees. The Guardians have won their last 8 games following a loss and the value is on Cleveland here at +150. |
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10-17-22 | Broncos +4.5 v. Chargers | Top | 16-19 | Win | 100 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
#275 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Denver Broncos +4.5 over LA Chargers, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - Denver steps into this one with a 2-3 SU record with their 3 losses coming by a combined 13 points and 2 of those losses coming by a FG or less. Their overall offensive numbers are decent rating as average in both YPP and YPG. The problem is they’ve struggled in the redzone and their efficiency numbers (1 point for every 22.9 yards) is at the bottom of the NFL. We don’t expect that to continue. We look for those numbers to start to even out and Denver will put points on the board. This looks like a game where that may happen as the Broncos have had 11 days off to make some changes after playing on Thursday night and they are facing an LAC defense that ranks 31st in scoring. LA just allowed their last 3 opponents (Jax, Houston, and Cleveland) to score 38, 24, and 28 points. The Chargers offense has put up some good numbers but 3 of the 5 opponents they’ve faced rank 25th, 27th, and 30th in scoring defense and 4 of the 5 stop units they’ve played rank outside the top half in DVOA per Football Outsiders. The one top 10 defense they’ve faced was Jacksonville and the Chargers were held to 10 points in that game. Now we don’t expect anything like that tonight, but Denver’s defense is the best LAC has faced ranking 3rd in total defense and 4th in defensive DVOA. They also rank 3rd in the NFL in pass defense which matches up nicely with the Chargers pass heavy offense. LA is banged up on the offensive line with 3 starters potentially out and at WR as Allen will most likely sit again. In a division game we like the much better defense in what we think will be a tight game. Getting more than the key numbers of 3 and 4, it’s a go for us on Denver +4.5. |
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10-16-22 | Cowboys v. Eagles -6 | Top | 17-26 | Win | 100 | 21 h 58 m | Show |
#274 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia Eagles -6 or -6.5 over Dallas Cowboys, Sunday at 8:15 PM ET - This is a rough situational spot for Dallas as they played the Rams on the west coast last weekend and now they are in Philly on the east coast this weekend. It’s also their 3rd road trip in the last 4 weeks. It looks like Dallas QB Prescott will be sidelined again for this game leaving it up to back up Cooper Rush who was solid the first 2 weeks but struggled a bit last week in LA as teams have more film on him. Rush threw for only 102 yards last week, had 10 first downs, and Dallas only averaged 4.5 YPP. They picked up a defensive score which helped them to a 22-10 win. So just 14 points on offense which won’t get it done here vs a potent Eagle attack that ranks 2nd in total offense and 5th in scoring. The Dallas defense has been superb this year, however they haven’t faced a top notch attack yet. The offenses they’ve faced so far this season rank 20th, 21st, 22nd, 25th and 26th in total offense. They’ve faced one mobile QB this season (NYG Daniel Jones) but Philadelphia QB Hurts has been playing at a completely different level and we look for the Cowboy defense to struggle here. Despite their 4-1 record, Dallas has been pretty luck as they are actually getting outgained by -13 YPG and outrushed 4.2 YPC to 4.7 YPC. The Eagles are every bit as good as their 5-0 record outgaining opponents by +121 YPG with the 2nd best point differential in the NFL behind only Buffalo. The Eagles are definitely the better team here, in the much better situation, and will be motivated after getting rolled by Dallas twice last season. Anything under a TD we’ll lay in this one. |
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10-16-22 | Panthers v. Rams UNDER 41.5 | Top | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 27 h 16 m | Show |
#267/268 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UNDER 41.5 Points - Carolina Panthers vs LA Rams, Sunday at 4 PM ET - Two of the worst offenses in the NFL go at it in this one. Football Outsiders DVOA have these offenses rated 31st (Carolina) and 26th (LA). The Panthers rank dead last in the NFL in total offense (YPG) and the Rams rank 26th . When it comes to scoring the Rams are averaging only 16 PPG (28th) and Carolina has put up 18 PPG (24th). Both defenses are better than the opposing offenses. Carolina did give up a season high 37 points to San Francisco last weekend, however the Niners scored on an interception return for TD and a 3-yard TD drive after Carolina was stopped on downs. Prior to that the Panthers were allowing just 21 PPG in their first 4 games. They should fare much better than that here vs a Rams offense that has fallen off a cliff this season. LA has been held to 10 points or less in 3 of their 5 games this season. Their only halfway decent offensive performance was vs an Atlanta defense that ranks 27th in the NFL. On the other side of the ball the Rams should have lots of success on defense. They are facing 3rd string QB PJ Walker in this one who steps in for an injured Baker Mayfield. Since giving up 31 points to Buffalo in the season opener, the LA defense has allowed just 5 offensive TD’s in their last 4 games. If we subtract the defensive & special teams TD’s, the Rams are allowing only 15.75 PPG over their last 4 games. Carolina has been held to 16 points or less in 3 of their last 4 games and they rank dead last in the NFL in 3rd down conversion rate. We can’t imagine they’ll improve with Walker at QB. Under is our play here. |
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10-16-22 | 49ers v. Falcons +4.5 | Top | 14-28 | Win | 100 | 25 h 38 m | Show |
#266 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Atlanta Falcons +4.5 over San Francisco 49ers, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - A terrible spot here for the Niners. They played last week @ Carolina and came away with a 37-15 win and had to stay on the east coast this week taking on Atlanta. Their 37 points last week was a bit deceiving as they had a defensive TD and a 3 yard drive late in the game when Carolina was shut out on downs. The defense was successful as well facing a bad Carolina offense that ranks 30th in the NFL averaging 4.8 YPP. This week will be tougher for this SF team facing a better Atlanta offense with a defense that is really banged up. 3 of their 4 starting defensive linemen including Bosa, their top LB, and a few DB’s, including Mosely their top corner, all out here. The SF defense is #1 in the NFL vs the run this season, however with all the injuries up front they will take a step back here vs an Atlanta offense that ranks 4th in the NFL averaging almost 170 YPG on the ground. The Niners have also had problems with mobile QB’s this season. They’ve faced just 2 QB’s with similar mobility to Atlanta’s Marcus Mariota and lost both of those games vs Denver (Russell Wilson) and Chicago (Justin Fields). The last 2 teams they’ve played, Rams & Panthers, rank 32nd and 28th in rushing so today will be a big adjustment for this banged up SF defense. Atlanta perfect vs the spread (5-0 ATS) and their biggest loss this season was by 6 points last week @ Tampa. This one will be close and we’ll grab the points. |
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10-15-22 | Mississippi State v. Kentucky +4 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 19 h 35 m | Show |
#130 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Kentucky +4 over Mississippi State, Saturday at 7:30PM ET - Kentucky got off to a great start to the season but has now lost two straight games. The Cats most recent loss to South Carolina has impacted this line and given us more value with the home underdog. Last week UK was without future NFL 1st rounder QB Will Levis who practiced this week and is back for this game. Additionally, this is a spot to sell high on Mississippi State, who is off a pair of huge SEC wins against Arkansas and Texas A&M. Not to mention the Bulldogs have a monster game on deck against Alabama. The Bulldogs benefitted from facing a pair of back up QB’s in their last two wins and were +5 in turnovers. The MSU defense still gave up 483-total yards to Arkansas and 388-yards to Texas A&M. The one road game against a comparable opponent to Kentucky was versus LSU and the Bulldogs were outgained by 129-yards and lost by 15-points. The Wildcats should have success with their running game against a Bulldog defense that gives up 139.8-rushing yards per game (56th) which will then open up the passing attack for Levis. Kentucky also allows the 14th least passing yards per game at 182.2 with opponents completing just 15.8-pass attempts per game which is 13th in the nation. Last season MISS ST won at home 31-17 as a 1-point favorite. The home team has covered 8-straight in this series with the host winning by an average of +15.5PPG. |
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10-15-22 | Kent State +8 v. Toledo | Top | 31-52 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 37 m | Show |
#117 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Kent +8 over Toledo, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - We always take a strong look at underdogs that have a potent offense and that’s what we have here. And we’re getting more than a TD which is a bonus. Kent’s overall offensive numbers aren’t spectacular this season, however much of that has to do with the schedule they’ve played. They’ve already faced Georgia, Oklahoma, and Washington this season and their strength of schedule is ranked 26th nationally. Compare that to Toledo’s SOS which is 135th and we feel Kent is more prepared for this match up. When stepping away from those high level Power 5 teams, the Golden Flashes offensive numbers are very good averaging 39 PPG and 570 YPG in their other 3 contests. In their 2 games vs MAC opponents the last 2 weeks, Kent has put up almost 1,200 yards! They are coming off a close loss last week as a 5 point favorite @ Miami OH. Toledo is stepping into this game off a very deceiving 52-32 win over Northern Illinois last week. The Rockets were outgained by 75 yards in that win, they had 2 pick 6’s, they were +4 in turnovers, and NIU played without their starting QB. Toledo’s offensive numbers aren’t great (ranked 78th in total offense) despite playing a very easy schedule as we mentioned. Defensively they have some decent stats but besides Ohio State, who scored 77 points and put up almost 800 yards on this Rocket defense, they’ve faced a very poor offensive schedule with their other opponents ranked 68th, 71st, 125th, and 129th in total offense. Their 3 FBS wins this season have come against NIU, CMU, UMass who are all 1-5 SU on the season for a combined record of 3-15. We like Kent to give Toledo all they can handle here and we expect them to have a shot at the outright win. Take the points. |
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10-11-22 | Padres v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 23 h 3 m | Show |
#924 ASA TOP PLAY ON LA Dodgers -1.5 on the Run Line (+100) over San Diego Padres, Tuesday at 9:35 PM ET - LA dominated this series during the regular season winning 14 of the 19 meetings and 13 of those wins came by at least 2 runs. In their 19 meetings this season, the Dodgers had a +63 run differential which equates to +3.3 runs per game and that includes their 5 losses. Pretty dominant to say the least. LA should have a big advantage on the mound here as they will send either Kershaw or Urias to start game 1. Both were outstanding vs San Diego this season with Kershaw sporting a 0.75 ERA in 2 starts vs the Padres and Urias came in with a 1.50 ERA in 4 starts. Clevinger will be the starter for San Diego after they used their top 3 starters over the weekend in NY. He has not pitched since October 1st and is coming off an illness so he may not be at 100%. Clevinger was poor on the road this year as well with a 5.46 ERA and a WHIP of 1.35. He faced LA 3 times this season and was rocked for 14 ER’s in just 13 innings of work. The host has had the better bullpen all season long (2nd in ERA and 1st in WHIP) and they have all arms available for this one. They are rested and ready while Padres are off emotional 3 game east coast series vs Mets. We’re getting this rested LA team with their top starter on the mound (either Urias or Kershaw) vs the Padres 4th starter. We think we’re getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one at even money with the Dodgers. |
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10-10-22 | Raiders v. Chiefs OVER 51.5 | Top | 29-30 | Win | 100 | 8 h 39 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 51.5 Points – Las Vegas Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - This has been an extremely high scoring series as of late with each of the last 4 getting to at least 55 points. The last 4 meetings between these two AFC West rivals have averaged 62.5 PPG. KC’s offense looks a bit different without WR Hill, however they have still been extremely efficient scoring 1 point for every 11.9 yards gained which is tops in the NFL. They have scored at least 27 points in 3 of their 4 games and they’ve already topped 40 points twice this season. Mahomes has been brilliant when he starts vs the Raiders scoring at least 30 points in all but 1 game with an average of 37 PPG. He should light it up again tonight vs a LV defense that ranks 28th in opponent completion percentage, 27th in yards per pass attempt allowed, and 24th in YPG allowed through the air. This will be the worst pass defense Mahomes has faced this season. Can the Raiders keep up here? That will be the key because we don’t want KC to get out to a big lead and milk the clock. We think they can. Vegas has scored at least 22 points in 3 of their 4 games and they rank 8th in the NFL in scoring efficiency putting up 1 point for every 14.8 yards gained. QB Carr has been a bit up and down this season but he should play well tonight vs a KC defense that is allowing a completion rate of almost 71% (31st in the NFL) and one that ranks 27th in total pass YPG allowed. They’ve been able to move the ball on offense ranking 11th in YPG but they’ve stalled in the red zone with just a 44% rate once they get inside the 20 yard line. The Raiders have gotten into the red zone an average of 4.5 times per game which is 2nd in the NFL only behind tonight’s opponent the Chiefs. The weather is perfect in KC tonight with light winds and temps in the low 70’s. We expect lots of scoring opportunities tonight and this one goes OVER the total |
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10-09-22 | Cowboys v. Rams UNDER 42.5 | Top | 22-10 | Win | 100 | 27 h 19 m | Show |
#475/476 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 43 Points – Dallas Cowboys vs LA Rams, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - This total is currently set at 43 points which may seem low but the average points scored thus far in the NFL is 42.8 per game so this is a tick higher than the average. We think it should be set lower than this. The LA Rams offense has dropped off a cliff this year ranking 31st in YPP and 28th in total offense while averaging just 17.5 PPG. They have faced 2 top tier defenses this year in Buffalo and San Francisco and the Rams scored 10 & 9 points in those 2 games. This Dallas defense is on the same tier. They are allowing only 15.5 PPG on the season and they rank 2nd in the NFL giving up just 1 point for every 19.9 yards gained. The Dallas offense is not good. Cooper Rush will be playing his 3rd game at QB so teams now have some film on him and we look for him to struggle. The Boys rank 26th in total offense and average less than 18 PPG. The Rams D is middle of the pack in most key categories this year but we think they are better than that and they shouldn’t need to be great here vs a fairly pedestrian Dallas offense. Dallas games have averaged 33 total points this season and LA Rams games have averaged 41 total points, both below this total. We feel the defenses are the superior unit on both teams this season and we like UNDER the total in this one. |
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10-09-22 | Dolphins -3 v. Jets | Top | 17-40 | Loss | -120 | 24 h 17 m | Show |
#465 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Miami Dolphins -3 over NY Jets, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - The Fins will be starting Teddy Bridgewater at QB in this one and that’s not a bad thing. He’s a veteran and really could be a starter in this league and his ATS record under center is spectacular at 42-21 ATS. Bridgewater stepped in vs Cincinnati after Tagovailoa was injured in their most recent game and he threw for 193 yards and a TD. The Jets have a 2-2 record but could easily be 0-4 as they rallied from 13 points down in the FINAL 2 MINUTES vs Cleveland for the 1 point win and rallied from 10 points down in the final 8:00 minutes to beat a bad Pittsburgh team last week. The Fins have played the tougher schedule and they are +0.3 YPPG differential compared to -0.3 YPP differential for the Jets who have played the easier slate. Miami won by 7 in both meetings last season and outgained the Jets by 778 to 608 in the 2 meetings combined. We’ve upgraded Miami this year while the NYJ power rating remains about the same. The Fins actually have the best record in the NFL since week 9 of last season with an 11-2 SU record tied with the Chiefs. The Jets are 2-2 but could easily be 0-4 as they scored 2 TD’s in the final 7 minutes last week to come from behind and squeak by a bad Pittsburgh team and they scored 2 TD’s in the final 2 minutes @ Cleveland to win by 1. Two weeks ago the Jets were +6.5 at home vs Cincy and lost by 12 and now only +3 vs Miami who we have rated as dead even vs the Bengals on a neutral field? Bad line and we like Miami, with extra time to prepare after losing their first game of the season last Thursday at Cincinnati, to win by more than a FG here. |
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10-08-22 | Kansas State v. Iowa State +1.5 | Top | 10-9 | Win | 100 | 20 h 28 m | Show |
#356 ASA TOP PLAY ON Iowa State +1.5 over Kansas State, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - ISU is in must win mode at home here after losing back to back games vs Baylor (lost by 7) and Kansas (lost by 3). In their 14-11 loss @ KU last week the Cyclones outgained Jayhawks by 100+ yards but missed 3 of their 4 FG’s in a game they should have won. Make note the ISU kicker was perfect on the season coming into the game so it’s not as if that has been a problem in the past. KSU is off back to back huge wins vs Oklahoma and Texas Tech but were outgained in both. The game prior to that the Wildcats lost at home to Tulane and the yardage was dead even. The Cats are a bit fortunate to be 4-1 as they’ve only outgained their 5 opponents by an average of 33 YPG but they are already +9 turnovers this season. KSU averages just 150 YPG passing (115th nationally) and they rely heavily on their running game to move the offense. That might be tough here as they are facing an Iowa State defense that 8th in the country in total defense (255 YPG allowed) and 7th in rush defense giving up just 83 YPG. Last week the ISU defense faced a Kansas offense that ranked 13th in rushing (228 YPG) to barely 100 yards on 3.6 YPC. The Cyclones have outgained their opponents this year by +126 YPG and their defense is allowing only 4.4 YPP which is a full 1 YPP better than KSU’s stop unit. The Clones were favored by 6.5 at Kansas State last year (and won) and this year they are home underdogs. Too much of a line swing in our opinion and with games vs Texas and Oklahoma on deck, this is a huge home game for Iowa State. We have this game powered to dead even so we like the value with the host. |
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10-08-22 | UTEP v. Louisiana Tech -2.5 | Top | 31-41 | Win | 100 | 20 h 16 m | Show |
#408 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Louisiana Tech -2.5 over UTEP, Saturday at 7 PM ET - Tough spot for UTEP playing their 2nd straight road game (and 3rd in 4 weeks) after winning a tight one at Charlotte last week. The Miners were outgained in that 41-35 win @ Charlotte but had 2 defensive TD’s including a 100 yard fumble return which was a 14 point swing in a tight game. UTEP is 3-1 over their last 4 games but their opponents have been weak as they faced New Mexico (lost by 17), NM State (won by 7) and Charlotte (won by 6) during that stretch, 3 teams we have rated 122, 124, and 128 nationally (out of 131 teams). The Miners could have easily lost all 3 of those games vs very poor opponents. La Tech is in a nice spot here coming off a bye week. They’ve lost their last 2 games but played strong competition losing to Clemson (undefeated) and South Alabama, whose only loss was by 1 point @ UCLA. La Tech has also already played Missouri this year and they have a strength of schedule rated 20th nationally compared to UTEP which ranks 116th in that category. Despite playing the much tougher schedule, the Bulldogs have the better offensive numbers with more YPG and they average a full TD more per game than UTEP. The Miners have the better defensive numbers but they’ve faced 4 offenses this year ranked 129th, 125th, 112th, and 85th. The Bulldogs were favored on the road in this meeting by 6.5 points last year and they were upset by UTEP and now we get them at a much cheaper price, at home, and in a very good situational spot. |
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10-08-22 | Texas Tech +9.5 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 31-41 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 59 m | Show |
#382 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas Tech +9.5 over Oklahoma State, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Tech steps in with a 3-2 record but they’ve outgained every opponent this year but the Red Raiders were -6 turnovers in their 2 losses to NC State and Kansas State. In their 9 point loss @ KSU last week the Raiders had a shot but had 4 turnovers, missed a FG, and were shut out on downs once. In the loss, Tech was +11 first downs, +14 yards, and +5 minutes TOP. They catch OSU in a great letdown spot here. The Cowboys have played one of the weaker schedules in power 5 (90th SOS) and they’ve been waiting and preparing for their rematch vs Baylor last week. That’s because the Bears topped OSU in the Big 12 Championship game last year. They played that game last week vs Baylor and picked up their revenge win but they were outgained by the Bears 457 to 379. It was the first legit opponent the Cowboys have faced this season after wins over Central Michigan, Arkansas Pine Bluff, and an Arizona State program in upheaval. Despite playing the much tougher schedule (8th SOS nationally) Texas Tech is +122 YPG compared to OSU who is +82 YPG despite playing an easy slate. Tech ranks higher nationally in both total offense AND total defense and if they can eliminate the turnovers, we think they can win this game outright. The Raiders have been waiting for this one after getting embarrassed 23-0 at home vs OSU last year when the Cowboys had one of the top defensive units in the nation. Not so much this year as the Cowboys lost 63% of their defensive production (20th most nationally) and their defensive coordinator is now at Ohio State. Tech is sitting in a great spot here and we’ll call this one down to the wire. Take the generous points. |
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10-07-22 | Houston v. Memphis OVER 57.5 | Top | 33-32 | Win | 100 | 31 h 37 m | Show |
ASA play on 8* OVER 57.5 Houston Cougars at Memphis Tigers, 7:30 PM ET - In Friday night's action we like OVER the total in the Houston/Memphis game. These two teams met last year with Houston winning 31-13. The Cougs put up 462-total yards in the game compared to the Tigers 322. The difference this year is that Houston isn’t near as good defensively as they were a season ago. Last year the Cougars were 16th in Yards Per Play defense at 4.9 and gave up just 22PPG. This season they allow 5.5YPP (65th) and 34PPG (98th) respectively. This Memphis offense is more than capable of putting up points in this game as they rank 25th in scoring at 34.4PPG. The Tigers rank 17th in Yards Per Point offense at 11.7 so they score with bigger plays and not time-consuming drives. Memphis will also have a hard time stopping this Houston offense that is putting up 31PPG and 391YPG. The Tigers have given up 32+ points against the three good offenses they’ve faced this season and have allowed 28 or more points in 6 of their last eight games dating back to last season. Houston should be able to exploit a Memphis pass defense that is 123rd in the nation allowing 288-passing yards per game. An average college game this season finishes with 58 total points. This game is going to be higher scoring than ‘average’ given the pace of play and offensive/defensive advantages. BET OVER! |
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10-07-22 | Rays v. Guardians UNDER 6 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
#945/946 ASA PLAY ON Under 6 Runs – Tampa Bay @ Cleveland, Friday at 12:05 PM ET - These 2 teams are very similar in that they are pitching and defense first and neither offense has much in terms of power numbers. They have the 2 lowest team ERA’s and they have hit the fewest HR’s of all the teams in the wild card round. These 2 offenses rank 26th and 29th in in HR’s per game and 21st and 25th in slugging percentage. With cold temps on Cleveland (low 50’s) and the wind blowing straight in at 15 MPH, we don’t expect any long balls in this one which should limit scoring. These two met 6 times this year, including 3 times last week, and averaged just 6.6 total RPG. To this total is set basically right at that number but each team has their top starting pitcher on the mound which tells us this number should be set lower. Cleveland’s starter Shane Bieber was very strong this season especially down the stretch allowing just 1.7 ER’s per game over his last 10 starts (Average of 6.1 IP per start). He allowed just 0.8 HR’s per 9 innings this season and as we mentioned with TB’s lack of power, this will be a station to station game. The Rays McClanahan’s numbers aren’t as solid in the 2nd half of the season but he still allowed just 2 ER’s or fewer in 5 of his last 6 starts. The lefty should have success vs a Cleveland offense who’s top hitters are left handed. The Guardians ranked 29th in MLB in OPS vs southpaws and 28th in slugging percentage. Both bullpens are very good ranking 5th and 7th in MLB in ERA and 3rd and 6th in WHIP. This shapes up to be a 2-1 or 3-2 type game in our opinion and we’ll grab the Under. |
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10-06-22 | Colts v. Broncos UNDER 43.5 | Top | 12-9 | Win | 100 | 56 h 5 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 43.5 Indianapolis Colts @ Denver Broncos, Thursday 8:20 PM ET - NFL scoring as a whole is down this season with the average total points scored in a game being 42.8PPG. Last year at this same time NFL games were averaging 47PPG. In this contest we get two struggling offenses and two upper echelon defenses. The Colts are 25th in Yards Per Play offense this season at 5.0, Denver is 16th at 5.4. When it comes to total yards per game, passing YPG, rushing YPG and points scored these two teams rank in the bottom half of the league in nearly every statistical offensive category. When it comes to scoring, both teams have been awful with the Broncos averaging 16.5PPG (30th) and the Colts scoring 14.3PPG which is last in the NFL. When it comes to the all-important Yards Per Point statistics, these two are last and next to last in the NFL taking more than 20-yards to score 1-point. The defenses for each team are a different story though with the Colts allowing 297YPG (6th best) and the Broncos giving up 284.8YPG (4th). These two defenses don’t give up big plays either with Denver allowing 4.9-Yards Per Play, Indianapolis gives up 4.9. Denver is allowing 17PPG on the season, Indianapolis gives up 21.3PPG. The Colts are on a 9-0 Under streak their last nine games, Denver is Under in 11 of their last fifteen overall. |
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10-05-22 | SMU +3 v. Central Florida | Top | 19-41 | Loss | -110 | 44 h 41 m | Show |
#421 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* SMU +3 over Central Florida, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - The Mustangs are desperate for a win coming in off back to back losses to strong opponents Maryland & TCU. SMU lost by a single score to each and outgained Maryland on the road and played almost dead even yardage wise to TCU, the same Horned Frog team that destroyed Oklahoma last week. In UCF’s most recent game they were completely outplayed by a below average Georgia Tech team but somehow pulled out the win. The Yellow Jackets outgained UCF by 119 yards but allowed the Knights to block a punt for a TD. In UCF’s only other game vs a legit opponent, they were outgained and beaten at home by Louisville. So the Knights were outplayed by both of their legit opponents and both of those teams (GT & Louisville) currently have losing records. SMU’s offense has been outstanding averaging over 500 YPG and 38.5 PPG. They’re defensive numbers aren’t great when compared to the UCF defense, however they’ve played the MUCH tougher schedule. The Mustang defense has already played 3 offenses ranked inside the top 23 nationally including TCU who ranks 2nd in the country in total offense. When these two met last season, SMU was favored by 7 at home and outgained the Knights by 300 yards and won the game 55-28. Now they are getting a FG in this game. Compare that to SMU’s games vs TCU and Maryland in which they were +2.5 in each telling us this line is off. This game was scheduled for last Saturday but had to be rescheduled due to the affects of Hurricane Ian in the Orlando area. UCF has been dealing with the distractions that go along with this which isn’t ideal. SMU gets the cover on Wednesday. |
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10-04-22 | Angels -135 v. A's | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -135 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* LA Angels (Lorenzen) -135 vs. Oakland A’s (Irvin) – 9 :40PM ET - In the last 15 days the Angels are one of the hottest hitting teams in baseball with a .289 team average while producing 59 total runs in 13 games. Over the course of that same time the A’s are hitting just .222 as a team and have a 3-7 SU record their last ten games. LA is 8-2 SU their last ten games. These same two teams just met in late September and these two pitchers had opposite results. Irvin lost his start against the Angels 2-4 while allowing 9 hits, 3 earned runs and 2 homers in 4 innings of work. Lorenzen was a -170 favorite and won his start 4-1. He threw 5 strong innings allowing 3 hits and 0 earned runs while striking out 8. The Angles have a net +/- of runs per game of +1.90 per in their last ten contests. Oakland on the other hand has a negative differential of minus -1.30 runs per game in their last ten. Back the hot team here in Los Angeles. |
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10-03-22 | Cubs +116 v. Reds | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 13 m | Show |
#953 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Chicago Cubs +115 over Cincinnati Reds, Monday at 6:40 PM ET - The Cubs are playing extremely well down the stretch despite their record and the Reds, who have 99 losses, are not. Chicago has won 10 of their last 11 games including a 3 game sweep of Philadelphia who is fighting for a wild card spot. The Cubs also just swept this Cincinnati team over the weekend and in a weird situation, they now close the season out with 3 more games vs the Reds on the road. In their series vs the Reds, the Cubs outscored Cincy 16-3. The Reds scored 1 run in each game and they have now averaged just 1.8 RPG over their last 10 with a team batting average of .170. They are not just 1-9 their last 10 games with their only win during that stretch coming at Milwaukee by a final score of 2-1. They have scored more than 3 runs just ONCE since September 17th. It won’t get any easier for the Cincinnati offense tonight facing Chicago rookie Wesneski who has made 3 starts since getting called up in September, allowing just 4 ER’s in 18.1 innings in those 3 starts. Opponents are hitting just .198 off Wesneski since getting called up. Chicago will face Hunter Greene who has made 3 starts since coming off the injured list. Those have been solid starts for Greene, but the fact is, because Cincinnati’s offense has been so poor, they’ve lost all 3 of those outings. Greene has made 23 starts this season and the Reds have won 5 of those starts. FIVE! He’s the Cubs twice this season pitching a total of 9 innings allowing 8 ER’s. Cincy continues to have one of the worst bullpens in MLB with an ERA of 4.66 and over their last 10 that number balloons to 5.36. The Cubs bullpen has been outstanding as of late with an ERA of 2.12 their last 10. We feel this is a very solid value play on the Cubs who should be favored in this one. |
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10-02-22 | Cardinals +1 v. Panthers | Top | 26-16 | Win | 100 | 27 h 27 m | Show |
#271 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Arizona Cardinals +1 versus Carolina Panthers 4 PM ET - Both 1-2 but the Strength of Schedule for both teams is drastically different. Arizona has played the 4th toughest schedule, Carolina the 30th. Carolina has been outgained in 2 of 3 games and barely outgained the Giants by +10-yards. Arizona has outgained 2 of 3 opponents this season and has put up 353 YPG despite facing two top tier defenses of the Chiefs and Rams. The Panther offense has struggled. They rank 30th in total YPG, 31st in passing and 14th in rushing. Carolina ONLY has 5 offensive TD’s this season. Against the Saints last week they managed just 293 total yards of offense, 12 first downs and 5.0YPPL. The Panthers defense is overvalued. Last week they allowed a Saints offense that has struggled this season to gain 426 total yards and 6.7YPPL. Carolina forced 3 TO’s though, one for a score. The Cardinals offense has gotten off to slow starts in games, getting outscored 13-56 in first halves this season. Cards QB Murray has played well completing 63.8% of his passes with 784 total yards, 3 TD’s to just 2 INT’s but they have just 1 explosive play on the season of 30+ yards. The Cardinals defense is 11th in stopping the run this season which is the Panthers strength. Their Pass Defense is 30th in the NFL but now they face Baker Mayfield (32ND worst QBR). The Panthers have owned the Cardinals in recent years with 6 straight wins, including last year’s 34-10 win. Last season the Cardinals were 7-point HOME favorites last year with Colt McCoy starting under center. Arizona is 19-6-1 ATS their last 27 regular season games as a ROAD DOG with 7 straight outright wins. Carolina is 3-10 ATS their last 13 as a favorite dating back to 2020. |
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10-02-22 | Chargers v. Texans UNDER 45.5 | Top | 34-24 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 44 m | Show |
#259/260 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UNDER 45.5 LA Chargers vs Houston Texans, 1 PM ET - Injuries have potentially derailed the Charger season with QB Herbert nursing a rib injury, DE Joey Bosa out with a groin injury and multiple O-line men out for the season. The injuries on the O-line have forced the Chargers to start two rookies who have been outmatched early on. With that thought in mind we expect a heavy dose of the running game for the Chargers as they try to protect Herbert and exploit the Texans weakness defensively. Houston is 32nd or last in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game at 202.3 on 5.6-yards per rush given up. LAC has struggled to run the football at 2.6-yards per carry and 59-yards per game, but they’ve also faced the best rush D in the NFL in Jacksonville and the 9th best in KC. The Chargers have faced three quality offenses in Jacksonville (6th total YPG), Kansas City (7th) and the Raiders who are 18th so their points per game allowed of 28PPG is higher than it should be. Houston on the other hand is 29th in total yards per game gained at 287.3YPG, 25th in passing, 27th in rushing and 26th in PPG so don’t expect a huge scoring game from them. These two teams rank 19th and 23rd in Yards Per Point offense meaning they lack big plays and tend to grind out drives for scores. Both teams also rank in the bottom half of the league in explosive plays. |
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10-01-22 | Indiana v. Nebraska OVER 60.5 | Top | 21-35 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 33 m | Show |
#211/212 ASA TOP PLAY ON Over 60.5 Points – Indiana vs Nebraska, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - These are 2 of the fastest paced teams in college football so we expect a lot of offensive snaps in this game. Indiana runs a play every 17 seconds which is 1st in the nation and Nebraska every 22 seconds which is 15th nationally. The defenses in this match up should provide lots of scoring opportunities to their opponents. The Husker defense has been brutal all season long. Throwing out their game vs FCS North Dakota, the Nebraska defense is allowing 42 PPG on the season vs Northwestern, Georgia Southern, and Oklahoma. Each of those teams scored their season high in points (minus FCS games) vs this Nebraska defense. Even a fairly pedestrian NW offense put up 31 points and over 500 yards! They rank outside the top 100 in scoring, rush & pass defense. The Huskers did fire their defensive coordinator after allowing 49 points to Oklahoma and appointed Bill Busch, their special teams coordinator to call plays on the defensive side of the ball. We don’t think it will matter. If the Huskers were EVER going to rally and play tough on defense it was after they fired head coach Frost going into their game vs Oklahoma. They fell flat again on that side of the ball giving up almost 600 yards. The Hoosier offense has been a bright spot this year averaging over 400 YPG and 29 PPG. Even vs 2 top tier defenses (Illinois & Cincinnati) both in the top 11 nationally in YPP allowed, the Hoosiers scored 23 and 24 points. On the other side of the ball the Indiana defense has not been good allowing 75 points in their last 2 games vs WKU & Cincinnati. Last week the Bearcats had 38 points at halftime before calling off the dogs in a 45-24 win. While their defense has been poor, the Nebraska offense has moved the ball this year averaging 455 YPG which ranks them 31st nationally. QB Thompson, a Texas transfer, has been solid averaging 250 YPG passing on 65% completions. He should shred an IU defense that has allowed almost 700 yards passing the last 2 weeks. Last year these 2 met in Indiana and the final score was 38-31 with almost 1,000 yards of total offense. We anticipate a fast paced, high scoring game in Lincoln on Saturday. |
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10-01-22 | Texas A&M v. Mississippi State -3.5 | Top | 24-42 | Win | 100 | 16 h 26 m | Show |
#182 ASA TOP PLAY ON Mississippi State -3.5 over Texas A&M, Saturday at 4 PM ET - Well we went against A&M last week and should have won and we’re coming back this week and fading this overrated team. Last Saturday they were favored by 2 vs Arkansas and won 23-21 pushing the spread. The fact is, Arkansas completely outplayed the Aggies with a total yardage edge of 415 to 343 and a 244 to 192 advantage on the ground. One play changed the entire game for the underdog Razors. With Arkansas up 14-7 very late in 2nd quarter and driving for a score inside the A&M 5 yard line. Razor QB fumbles and it’s returned 97 yards for a TD for a 14 point swing. Arkansas also missed a 42 yard FG at the end that would have won the game. Arkansas was the correct side in that game. In the 2 weeks prior A&M lost at home to App State and then beat Miami by 8 but the Aggies were outgained by 130+ yards in that game and beaten in the trenches allowing 4.9 YPC while gaining just 3.9 YPC. That’s the same App State team that needed a hail mary 2 weeks ago to beat Troy and then lost at home to James Madison last week (we were on JMU). That’s also the same Miami team that lost by 14 points at home vs Middle Tenn State last Saturday. A&M could easily be sitting with a 1-3 record right now. This will be their first true road game of the season and they have Alabama on deck so not an ideal situation. The Aggie offense has been bad to say the least. If we take out their defensive and special teams TD’s this year, the actual offense has scored only 5 touchdowns in 3 games (minus their FCS game vs Sam Houston). The Aggies have been outgained in each of their 3 FBS games by a total of more than 300 yards. They’ve already switched QB’s from King to Johnson and neither has been good. This offense currently ranks outside the top 100 in total yards, passing yards, rushing yards, and PPG. They face a Mississippi State team that is very dangerous offensively. The Bulldogs returned 71% of their offensive production from a team that averaged 29 PPG last year including QB Rogers who threw for almost 5000 yards last year and 36 TD’s. This year he’s already thrown for 1400 yards and 16 TD’s and the Bulldogs are averaging 37 PPG. The MSU defense was solid last season allowing 345 YPG and they returned over 80% of their production on that side of the ball (5th most nationally). This season they are allowing 319 YPG and we don’t see A&M having much success on offense. Last year MSU went into Texas A&M and won the game 26-22 outgaining the Aggies 438 to 297. We don’t see anything changing this year. Mississippi State gets the win and cover at home. |
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09-30-22 | Tulane +2.5 v. Houston | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 18 h 12 m | Show |
#105 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tulane +2.5 over Houston, Friday at 7 PM ET - Tulane is coming off a tough loss, a game the absolutely should have won. They played host to a much improved Southern Miss team and despite losing 27-24 they outgained the Golden Eagles by 200 yards! The Green Wave were +13 first downs, +145 yards rushing, and +13 minute time of possession. Tulane missed 2 FG’s and were shut out on downs 3 times in USM territory. They entered the game off a huge road win @ Kansas State, which looks like a great win now after KSU just beat Oklahoma last week. It was their first loss and non cover of the season and they are +25 points vs the spread in their 4 games this year (undervalued). Houston, on the other hand, is just 1-3 ATS and their only spread win was by a half point. The Cougars are now -38 points vs the spread this season (overvalued). Houston struggled last week at home to beat a bad Rice team 34-27. The yardage was dead even and it took a Cougar defensive score in the final minutes to pull out the 7 point win (they were favored by 17). Houston is -50 YPG and dead even YPP differential after 4 games. Tulane is +200 YPG and +2.3 YPP through 4 games. The dog is coming off a shocking loss and the better team here. They’ll be ready and we like Tulane. |
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09-29-22 | A's v. Angels UNDER 7 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
#967/968 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 7 Runs – Oakland A’s vs LA Angels, Thursday at 9:30 PM ET - Two of the worst offenses in MLB squaring off in this one. The A’s rank 28th or lower (out of 30 teams) in RPG, batting average, OPS, and HR’s per 9 innings. The Angels rank 24th or lower in the first 3 categories listed above. In the first 2 games of this series these teams put up 7 and 5 total runs and tonight we have better pitchers on the mound for both teams compared to the first 2 meeting of this series. LA’s Ohtani is allowing an average of just 1.3 ER over his last 10 starts (average start of 5.2 innings). He’s been dominant at home this season with an ERA of 2.00 and in 81 innings pitched he has allowing only 63 hits with a 109 strikeouts. He’s faced Oakland twice this season and he has an ERA of 1.54 in those 2 meetings. Ohtani is one of the top strikeout pitchers in the Majors 12 per 9 innings pitched and the Oakland offense averages almost 9 K’s per 9 innings so lots of swings and misses tonight. Oakland goes with lefty Irvin tonight. He’s faced the Angels 3 times this season with an ERA of 2.54. He’s coming off a couple poor outings, however those were vs the Mets & Astros, two of the top offensive teams in MLB. We expect him to pitch much better tonight vs an LA team he’s had success against and the Angels are averaging just 3.5 RPG this season vs left handers. The 2 have faced off 15 times this season and 11 of those games have totaled 7 or fewer runs. The UNDER is 21-8-2 last 31 meetings between these AL West rivals. We’ll call for another UNDER tonight in LA. |
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09-29-22 | Dolphins v. Bengals -3.5 | Top | 15-27 | Win | 100 | 68 h 54 m | Show |
#102 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cincinnati Bengals -3.5 over Miami Dolphins, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - The team with a 1-2 record is favored by a FG over the team with a perfect 3-0 record? This is a very solid spot for the Bengals at home. They are in somewhat of a must win here as they are 1-2 and 3 of their last 4 games are away from home. They can’t afford to lose this one. They catch Miami in a terrible spot coming off a gigantic home won over division rival Buffalo. Not only that, the Fins defense has to be gassed here on a short week after facing a whopping 90 offensive snaps from Buffalo’s offense. It was 100 degrees on the field and the Miami defenders were dropping like flies with heat exhaustion, cramping, etc… This will be a very tough week for the Miami defense. On top of that, prior to their huge 21-19 win over Buffalo, the Dolphins had to make a huge rally on the road @ Baltimore scoring 28 points in the final 12:00 minutes of the game to squeak by the Ravens 42-38. Back to back physically and emotionally taxing games and now a short week on the road for Miami. Despite their win Miami was outgained 497 to 212 last week vs the Bills so they were quite fortunate to say the least. After losing 2 tight games to start the season vs Pittsburgh (Bengals had 5 turnovers) and @ Dallas (Bengals just played poorly), they picked up some momentum last week handling the Jets on the road 27-12. QB Burrow finally looked like a top tier signal caller with 275 yards passing and 3 TD’s along with by far his highest QBR of the season. Miami QB Tagovailoa is dealing with a back issue that may cause some problems on a short week. Lay it with Cincinnati. |
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09-27-22 | Cardinals v. Brewers OVER 8.5 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* #957/958 OVER 8.5 RUNS St. Louis @ Milwaukee, 7:40 PM ET - St Louis is coming off two low scoring series against the Dodgers and Padres. The Dodgers have the best pitching staff in baseball with a league leading 2.83 ERA. The Padres own the 11th best team ERA but in the last 15 days they’ve been especially hot with a 2.62 ERA. The Cardinals have been shutout three times in their last seven games which has driven this total down from where it should be. These two teams are in the top 10 in total runs scored this season and the Brewers have been especially hot with 5.16 runs scored per game in their last 12. Milwaukee will send Adrian Houser to the hill with his 4.62 ERA and 6-9 record. He is 0-2 with a 5.59 ERA in two starts this season against the Cardinals, giving up nine runs (six earned) in 9 2/3 innings of work. The Cardinals will counter with Miles Mikolas who is 11-13 SU on the year with a 3.35 ERA. Mikolas has lost his last three starts and is 2-4 with a 3.07 ERA over his last seven. |
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09-26-22 | Cowboys v. Giants UNDER 39 | Top | 23-16 | Push | 0 | 7 h 45 m | Show |
#489/490 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 39 Points – Dallas Cowboys vs NY Giants, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - Neither offense has looked good thus far with the Giants scoring 40 points in 2 games while Dallas has put up just 23 points. The Giants are averaging 5.0 YPP this season (20th in the NFL) and Dallas just 4.7 YPP (31st). With the Cowboys playing a back up QB (Rush) we expect them to keep the ball on the ground quite a bit tonight. The NY defense has been susceptible to the run this season allowing 4.9 YPC and look for Dallas to lean on RB’s Elliott and Pollard rather than a QB making his 3rd career start. The Giants already run the ball often averaging 33 carries per game which is 5th most in the NFL. Jones is an average at best QB who has averaged just 18 PPG in his 8 prime time appearances. Needless to say, we don’t expect either signal caller to light it up through the air tonight. Overall both defenses look like the stronger units in each team with each ranking in the top 10 in points allowed. Each has given up just 36 total points so far on the season. The ground games of each team will eat clock tonight and with the anticipated lack of big plays from the QB position, this game turns into a grinder. Take the Under. |
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09-25-22 | Eagles v. Washington Commanders +6.5 | Top | 24-8 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 13 m | Show |
#476 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington Commanders +6.5 over Philadelphia Eagles, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - Look ahead here was Philly -3 and it’s jumped to 6.5 based on 1 data point for each team. Everyone watched Philadelphia roll over Minnesota on Monday night 24-7 and Washington lose at up and coming Detroit, thus the line move. The Vikings definitely had their chances in the 2nd half vs the Eagles throwing 2 picks in the endzone and another at the Philly 20 yard line. They are also on the road off short week with their Monday night win which is not ideal. IN their only road game thus far Philly nearly lost @ Detroit but pulled out a 38-35 win. While the Eagles offense has looked good averaging 31 PPG, let’s not forget Washington is averaging 28.3 PPG after 2 games and ranks 6th in total offense. Their 28-22 win over Jacksonville in week 1 looks like a solid win after the Jags rolled 24-0 over the Colts in week 2. Last year when these 2 faced off here in Washington, the Eagles were favored by 6.5 as well and won 20-16. The Commanders led that game at half 16-7 and continued to lead in the 4th quarter before losing close. Washington had Heinicke at QB for that game and the yardage was nearly dead even. Now with Wentz at QB we feel they have a shot to win this game outright and they’re getting nearly a full TD. While people bag on Wentz, he’s a big upgrade for Washington. He’s already thrown for 650 yards and 7 TD’s after throwing 27 TD’s and just 7 picks last year. The Eagles 3-7 ATS as favorite since start of 2020 season and we like the division underdog in a solid situational spot here. |
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09-25-22 | Bills v. Dolphins OVER 53 | Top | 19-21 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 54 m | Show |
#463/464 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 53 Points – Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - Buffalo has put up 72 points in 2 games and we don’t see Miami slowing them down here. The Fins actually rank dead last in the NFL in YPP allowed at 6.8 and in opponent yards per pass attempt allowing 8.7. In 2 games last year vs the Fins the Buffalo Bills scored 61 points and we see no reason to think they won’t top 30 again. The difference this year? Miami’s offense looks like they’ll be able to keep up. They scored 42 points last week in a win @ Baltimore and QB Tagovailoa had 6 TD passes. The Fins put up a ridiculous 547 total yards in the game and they are tied with Buffalo with the 2nd best YPP offense in the NFL at 6.7. While the Bills defense has been solid, they faced the Rams with QB Stafford’s injured elbow and a Tennessee team that lost all of their key WR’s from last year and have downgraded fairly big on the offensive line. Sunday will be a different animal for the Buffalo defense to face and they are really banged up on the D Line and in the secondary with both starting safeties potentially out along with starting CB Jackson (out). Miami’s defense looked good vs a pedestrian New England offense (12 PPG on the season) but last week they were blitzed for 38 points vs Baltimore. Buffalo scored 41 points last week in the first THREE QUARTERS and then didn’t score after that because they had a huge lead. We don’t foresee the Bills shutting down Miami so both teams will have to keep scoring in this one. Over is the play. |
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09-24-22 | Arkansas +2 v. Texas A&M | Top | 21-23 | Push | 0 | 22 h 8 m | Show |
#403 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Arkansas +2 over Texas A&M, Saturday at 7 PM ET - This one is being played at the Cowboys home stadium on Saturday. Wrong team favored here according to our power ratings. We’ve been unimpressed with A&M this season and feel they are drastically overvalued right now. We were on them in a perfect spot a few weeks ago when they played host to App State who was coming off 63-61 loss to UNC a week earlier. The Heels rolled up huge numbers vs the App State defense yet A&M at home was only able to score 14 points on 186 total yards. That speaks volumes to how this Aggie offense is struggling right now. They followed that loss up last week with a 17-9 win over Miami FL in which TAMU had only 265 total yards. Thus, in their 2 games since beating Sam Houston State to open the season, the Aggies have scored 31 total points on just 451 total yards. They’ve been outgained by a combined 257 total yards in those 2 games. They’ve allowed 49 first downs in those 2 games while accumulating just 25 first downs offensively. A&M has already made a switch at QB from Haynes to Johnson, but the stats haven’t been great for either. Johnson started last week and completed just 50% of his passes in a game A&M was also outplayed in the trenches allowing 4.9 YPC while gaining only 3.9 YPC on offense. It was a game the Canes should have won and we’re getting some value here because the Aggies won on the scoreboard. While their offense is struggling, the Razorbacks are not. Last week they struggled a bit in a letdown spot with Missouri State but still put up big numbers. Despite their -3 turnover ratio for the game, the Razors won and put up 600 total yards. They’ve now rolled up 447, 462, and 600 yards in their 3 games to go along with 113 total points (37.6 PPG). Two of those games were vs Cincinnati and South Carolina so we’re not talking about cupcake city here. Arkansas will control the trenches as they’ve outgained their opponents by 500+ yards on the ground this season while the Aggies have been outgained in the run game by 140 yards. Last year when these 2 met A&M was a 4 point favorite and Arkansas won the game by 10 points outgaining the Aggies by 170 total yards. We don’t see anything changing here. TAMU is talented but still quite young and we like Arkansas, who has a much better QB situation with Jefferson (770 yards passing / 170 yards rushing / 9 TD’s this year) to win again. |
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09-24-22 | Northern Illinois v. Kentucky UNDER 54 | Top | 23-31 | Push | 0 | 22 h 43 m | Show |
#315/316 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 54 Points – Northern Illinois vs Kentucky, Saturday at 7 PM ET - The first aspect of this game that stood out to us immediately was the pace of play for both teams. Kentucky takes 29.2 seconds to run a play which is the 123rd slowest tempo in college football. NIU plays at the exact same pace. UK is 111th in plays per game at 62.5. No. Illinois is 107th at 63-plays per/game. With a limited number of plays that means you need big plays to score a lot of points. UK is 78th in Yards Per Play at 5.3, NIU is 49th at 5.9. Kentucky hosted another MAC team in Miami OH earlier this season and that game finished with 50-total points. MIA OH was predicted as the best team in the conference in preseason rankings and they managed just 290-total yards of offense and 13-points against the Cats. Northern Illinois has given up 38-points in each of their last two games, but those big numbers came against the 14th highest scoring team in CFB and the 26th highest. Both teams have big conference games on deck so expect a sluggish game throughout. |
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09-23-22 | Angels v. Twins UNDER 7 | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
#977/978 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 7 Runs – LA Angels vs Minnesota Twins, Friday at 8 PM ET - Terrible weather in Minnesota tonight with 10+ MPH winds blowing in, cool weather, and possible rain. Not conducive for scoring runs. The starting pitchers should also lend to a low scoring game. Ohtani starts for LA and he has been fantastic all season. He’s striking out almost 12 per 9 innings and over his last 10 starts he’s allowing just 1.7 ER’s with an average of 6 IP. Over his last 4 starts he’s allowed just 2 ER over 27 innings pitched. He’s facing a struggling Minnesota offense that is averaging less than 3 RPG over their last 10 and they rank 22nd in runs scored since the All Star Break. The Angel offense has been one of the worst all season long. They rank 26th in RPG, 25th in batting average and 26th in OPS. They also strike out nearly 10 times per 9 innings. They are 27th in runs scored since the All Star Break and are averaging just 3.5 RPG over their last 10. They face Minnesota’s Varland who is making his 3rd start of the season. He had one very solid start vs a talented Yankee line up (2 ER allowed), struggled a bit vs Cleveland, but has 10 strikeouts in 10 IP which should match up well with LA’s strikeout prone line up. Varland had fantastic numbers in the Minors and nobody in the Angels line up has ever seen him. Let’s go UNDER the total in tonight’s game. |
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09-22-22 | Steelers v. Browns -4 | Top | 17-29 | Win | 100 | 21 h 20 m | Show |
#302 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cleveland Browns -4 over Pittsburgh Steelers, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - The Steelers offense has been abysmal the first 2 weeks of the season. They rank 30th in YPG & YPP and they’ve been outgained by 300 yards in their 2 games and they’ve scored just 2 offensive TD’s this season. They pulled out a tight win over Cincinnati in OT despite the Bengals turning the ball over 5 times including a pick 6. Even with the +5 turnover mark in that game Pittsburgh had to go to OT in that one. Last week they were topped by New England 17-14 but outgained by a full 1.5 YPP. The Pats missed a FG, punted from the Pitt 40 yard line and ended the game inside the Steeler 20 yard line. New England, after averaging just 5 YPP vs Miami in week 1, had some solid success offensively last week averaging 5.7 YPP. Cleveland is looking for a bounce back after blowing a home lead and losing to the Jets 31-30. The Browns were up 30-17 with under 2:00 minutes remaining in last week’s game and allowed NYJ to scored 2 late TD’s to pick up the win. Cleveland has outgained both of their first 2 opponents including on the ground where they are +255 yards through 2 contests. Pittsburgh has gained just 75 and 90 yards on the ground the first two weeks and they are -95 yards on the ground. That’ll play a huge factor here as we expect winds of 20+MPH for this game which means the rushing attack will be more important for each side. The Pitt defense is drastically different with TJ Watt out of the lineup and you could see that last week with 0 sacks vs the Pats. We feel the number gives us value as well. Cleveland was favored by -6.5 vs NYJ last week and now just -4.5 vs a Pittsburgh team that is no better than the Jets in our power ratings. Last year Cleveland was a 5.5 point favorite at home vs Pittsburgh and lost 15-10 and they pushed inside the Steeler 25 yard line on their final drive but were shut out on downs. We like Cleveland to cover this one vs a Steeler team we have tabbed as one of the worst in the NFL. |
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09-22-22 | Coastal Carolina v. Georgia State +2.5 | Top | 41-24 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 5 m | Show |
#306 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Georgia State +2.5 over Coastal Carolina, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET - Interesting line here. The 3-0 Chanticleers are favored by just 2.5 over the 0-3 Panthers? Looks too easy based on the records and we agree. Our power ratings have Georgia State favored here so we grab the value with the home dog rather than simply looking at the current records. The Panthers played 2 very tough opponents to open the season losing @ South Carolina and at home vs UNC. Last week they surprisingly lost 42-41 but had over 600 yards of total offense and outgained the 49ers by over 100 total yards. Charlotte’s starting QB returned after missing 2 games which helped along with a 52 yard fumble returned for a TD for the 49ers and a TD with 17 seconds left to win. Georgia State has outgained 2 of their 3 opponents and for the season by 60 yards which points to the fact they are MUCH better than their 0-3 record. Panthers return 77% of their offensive + defensive production (14th nationally) from a team that went 8-5 last season, won their bowl game by 31 points, and nearly upset Auburn on the road. Starting QB Grainger is back after throwing for 19 TD’s and just 4 picks last season to go along with a very potent ground attack. The Panthers have topped 200 yards rushing in each of their first 3 (averaging 231 YPG on the ground) including games vs SEC and ACC defenses. Coastal has played the much easier schedule with all 3 games at home thus far vs Army, Buffalo, and Gardner Webb. They were lucky to beat FCS Gardner Webb getting outgained by 140 yards. Last week CC was trailing Buffalo (now 0-3 SU record) entering the 4th quarter but picked up a fumble recovery for a TD which turned the game and led to a 12 point win. The 3 teams CC has beaten this year (all at home) have a 2-7 SU combined record. Now they go on the road for the first time vs a desperate team that absolutely has to have this win. Last year Coastal had a much better team than they have right now and this Georgia State team won that match up on the road 42-40. Take GSU as a home dog here. |
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09-20-22 | Red Sox v. Reds +103 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 51 m | Show |
#928 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cincinnati Reds +100 over Boston Red Sox, Tuesday at 6:40 PM ET - Both teams had yesterday off and both are out of the playoff race. Both teams have been struggling as well with Boston winning just 4 of their last 11 and the Reds winning 2 of their last 11. However, Cincinnati did show some life in their most recent 5 games series at division leading St Louis. Cincy won 2 of those games and had 2 losses by a single run. They send their hottest pitcher to the mound tonight as Lodolo has allowed an average of 2 ER’s per game over his last 10 starts. At home this year Lodolo has a very solid ERA of 2.77 and over his last 3 starts his ERA is 2.28. The Reds have won 8 of his 13 starts since he came back to the big leagues in early July. They have also won 7 of his last 9 home starts. Boston sends Bello to the hill and the Sox have won just once in his 10 starts this season. His road ERA is north of 7.00 with a WHIP of nearly 2.00. He has made 4 road starts this season and Boston has lost all 4 by a combined score of 23-10. The Cincinnati offense has been much better at home this year hitting .250 and averaging nearly 5 RPG. We like them to have success vs Bello while Cincy’s starter Lodolo continues his red hot run. Take the Reds at home. |
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09-19-22 | Vikings v. Eagles OVER 48.5 | Top | 7-24 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
#291/292 ASA TOP PLAY ON Over 48.5 Points – Minnesota Vikings vs Philadelphia Eagles, Monday at 8:30 PM ET - First off the weather looks good tonight in Philly. It will be warm with highs in the upper 70’s with very light winds. There is a chance of rain but not much and if it does rain it looks spotty. Key is the wind (5 MPH) which won’t affect either passing game. Both offenses looked in midseason form last week with Philly putting up 6.3 YPP vs Detroit and Minnesota averaging 6.5 YPP vs Green Bay. The Eagles had 38 points through 3 quarters and took their foot off the gas up 17 which almost cost them. They didn’t put up a single point in the 4th yet still almost hit 40. Minnesota had 23 points vs GB but were able to rely heavily on the run after building a 20-0 lead. After getting up by 20, the Vikings ran another 26 offensive plays and 16 of those were runs as they were taking time off the clock. In the first half when using the full complement of their offense, Minnesota was able to score points in 3 of their 6 possessions including 2 TD’s. Neither defense was great at the line of scrimmage with each allowing more than 6 YPC last week. Now with both facing solid rushing attacks we should see similar results tonight which will really open up the passing attack on each side. Both teams were successful running the ball last week and that led to Hurts & Minny QB Cousins to combine for 41 completions in 64 attempts for 520 passing yards. And remember, Cousins was facing one of the top secondary’s in the NFL (Packers). We also expect a faster than normal paced game in this one. Last week Minnesota and GB each ran 61 plays and that was with the Vikings milking the clock in the 4th quarter and the Packers were the slowest paced team in the NFL last season and we expect them to look the same this year. Philly & Detroit ran a total of 138 offensive snaps in an up tempo game. The projected score at this total is Philadelphia 26, Minnesota 23 and our model has both of these teams scoring above those numbers. Over is the play tonight. |
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09-19-22 | Tigers v. Orioles -1.5 | Top | 11-0 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 26 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* #968 Baltimore Orioles -1.5 runs vs. Detroit Tigers, 7 PM ET - Baltimore is in desperation mode as they sit 4-games back in the Wild Card race with time running out on the regular season. The Tigers are the perfect opponent to cut into that deficit. Detroit is 55-91 on the season and have a season net run differential of minus -173 which ranks them 27th out of 30 teams. Baltimore will send Tyler Wells to the mound who is 7-6 with a 3.93 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. The Tigers will counter with lefty Tyler Alexander who is 3-10 on the season with a 5.35 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. He is 0-3 in his last four starts with an ERA over 10.00, allowing 28 total hits, 19 runs in 18.3 innings of work. What’s significant for our bet against him here is that the Tigers lost those four starts by an average of 4.25 runs per game. Detroit really struggles against right-handed starters this season hitting jut .213 as a team and scoring 3.07 runs/9 innings. We will lay the 1.5 runs in this one. |
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09-18-22 | Bears v. Packers -10 | Top | 10-27 | Win | 100 | 31 h 49 m | Show |
#288 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Green Bay -10 over Chicago, Sunday at 8:15 PM ET - While this line may seem high, it’s really not. Green Bay was favored by 11.5 at home last year and won by 15. Chicago played host to a San Francisco team with an inexperienced QB last week (Lance) and the Niners were laying 7 in that road game. The Bears won the game 19-10 but they were dominated on the stat sheet. San Fran outgained Chicago by 1.3 YPP and the Bears only put up 204 total yards with 50 coming on one play. The 49ers also completely controlled the line of scrimmage outrushing the Bears 4.7 YPC to 2.9 YPC. The terrible weather in that game really helped Chicago ugly up the game and hang around in the first half (down 7-0) when they had only 68 total yards at halftime. The Packers lost big in Minnesota but played better than the final score indicated. A couple of big pass drops on offense could have changed the entire game. GB won the line of scrimmage averaging 6.2 YPC but were only able to run the ball 18 times because they got behind 17-0 at half. As we mentioned SF was able to run the ball last week with success on Chicago which we expect GB to do but we also have Aaron Rodgers at the helm rather than Trey Lance. Rodgers has a 20-7 lifetime ATS record vs the Bears and GB has won each of the last 4 meetings by double digits. The Packers have also been huge money makers coming off a loss with a perfect 11-0 ATS record their last 11 games in that situation. This is a huge home game for Green Bay with Tampa on deck. That cannot afford to lose this one and we expect to see them at the top of their game here. We’ll lay the points. |
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09-18-22 | Dolphins v. Ravens UNDER 44.5 | Top | 42-38 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 15 m | Show |
#263/264 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 44.5 Points – Miami Dolphins vs Baltimore Ravens, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - These 2 met last year and it was a 22-10 grinder won by the Fins. We expect a similar situation on Sunday. Both of these teams were slower paced the first week of the season with Miami ranking 31st in pace and Baltimore 27th after one game. The Ravens ranked 20th in pace last year so that should stay the same throughout this season. Miami was middle of the pack a year ago but their new head coach McDaniels loves to run the ball and we anticipate them in the bottom third in pace this season. In their first game, the Dolphins put up just 20 points vs New England and 7 of those came on a defensive TD. Defensively they looked really good holding the Pats to just 7 points on 271 total yards (5.0 YPP). The Baltimore offense put up 24 points last week but gained only 274 total yards. They held the Jets to 9 points and while NY had 380 total yards, almost 200 of those yards came when Baltimore was up 24-3 and the game was out of reach. The Jets only averaged 4.8 YPP for the game. In their meeting last year, the Fins and Ravens combined to average only 4.9 YPP and there were 16 punts in the game. There were only 25 points scored by the offenses in that game with Miami returning a fumble 50 yards for a TD. There were 27 possessions in the game and 20 of those last 6 plays or fewer. The defenses dominated that game and we expect the same here. Baltimore loves the run the ball (3rd in carries per game last year) and we look for the Dolphins to run a lot this year with a new scheme from McDaniels whose known as one of the top run game coordinators on the NFL. Running eats clock and shortens the game. These 2 have faced off 6 times since 2014 and only one of those games topped 44 points. The projected score on this game is Baltimore 24, Miami 21 and we don’t expect either team to reach their number. Under is the play. |
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09-17-22 | San Diego State v. Utah -21 | Top | 7-35 | Win | 100 | 33 h 42 m | Show |
#200 ASA TOP PLAY ON Utah -21 over San Diego State, Saturday at 10 PM ET - This one could get ugly in our opinion. San Diego State has taken a huge step back from last year’s team that went 12-2 on the season. They have been very unimpressive in both of their games so far this season with an 0-2 ATS record (1-1 SU) failing to cover the spread by a combined 27 points. In their season opener they played host to Arizona, who we have power rated as the worst team in the Pac 12. It was a hugely important game as SDSU opened their brand new on campus stadium for that one. The Aztecs were dominated to the tune of 38-20 and they were outgained by 230 yards. Arizona followed that up by getting thrashed at home by Mississippi State last week. SDSU’s other game was a 38-7 win over Idaho State who ranks as a lower tier FCS team. The Aztecs had a special teams TD in that one and outgained a bad Idaho State team by “only” 150 yards. The reason we say that is because a week prior Idaho State was outgained by 300+ yards vs UNLV, far from a solid college program. After losing to a bad Pac 12 team by 18 points at home in their opener, San Diego State now they face the team we have power rated as the best in the Pac 12 and it’s on the road. It’s also a huge revenger for Utah after losing in OT last year at SDSU. The Utes have been waiting for this one and they are coming off a 73-7 win over Southern Utah last week after losing their opener by 3 points @ Florida. If Arizona can score 38 points on the Aztecs, we can’t imagine what this potent Utah offense will do. The Utes have over 1000 total yards in just 2 games including an impressive 446 @ Florida. San Diego State won’t keep up here. They can’t pass (just 170 yards passing in 2 games) and they won’t be able to run very successfully vs a solid Utah front that finished 26th nationally vs the run last year. The Utes won every home game last year by double digits by an average margin of +19 points so -21 vs a poor San Diego State team is more than doable. Utah runs away with this one and they’ve already shown they’ll pile it on if needed scoring 73 last week. |
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09-15-22 | Chargers v. Chiefs UNDER 54.5 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 21 h 24 m | Show |
#103/104 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 54.5 Points – LA Chargers vs KC Chiefs, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - KC scored 44 points by themselves last week vs a really banged up Arizona defense so many will be rushing to bet this Over based on that result alone. We think there is value on the Under in this one. A division game on a short week would lend itself to the Under when the total is set this high. Thursday night NFL totals set higher than 51 have gone Under the total at a 68% rate lifetime. Being division rivals, these 2 teams know each other very well. Last year they totaled 54 and 62 points although the 2nd game was in OT. However, a closer look reveals both games were looking like sure Unders but both teams piled on points late in each game. In the 2 games combined these two rolled up 31 total points with less than 2:30 remaining in regulation (and OT). That means that 27% of the scoring in those 2 games came with less than 2:30 left in the contest. While many will focus on the offensive numbers from last week we were impressed with both defenses. KC held a very potent Arizona offense to just 282 total yards on 4.5 YPP. The Cards had only 7 points entering the 4th quarter when the game was already out of reach. The Chargers defense held an upgraded Las Vegas offense (added WR Adams) to 19 points on 320 total yards. The LA offense was far from spectacular with 24 points on 355 total yards. Thus, three of the four units in this game (LA offense, LA defense, and KC defense) have us looking Under this week and we don’t expect the KC offense to put up nearly 500 yards and 44 points again this week vs a much better defense (and healthier defense). Under is the play in the AFC West game. |
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09-15-22 | Reds v. Cardinals -1.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -127 | 8 h 32 m | Show |
#956 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* St Louis Cardinals -1.5 Runs (-130) over Cincinnati Reds, Thursday at 7:45 PM ET - The Reds are in a free fall losing 6 straight games including a 4 game sweep at home at the hands of the Pittsburgh Pirates. In that series the Reds were outscored 23-8 and only collected 23 total hits for an average of less than 6 hits per game. St Louis is surging winning 33 of their last 45 games and they’ve built a 7 game lead in the NL Central over Milwaukee. The Cards are also chasing the Mets to try and earn a bye in the wild card round. Mikolas is on the mound and he has been fantastic at home this season with a 2.23 ERA allowing just 59 hits in 89 innings pitched. He’s coming off a poor outing, however that was on the road vs where his numbers are quite a bit higher, and he’s had an extra day off to rest up between starts. In his 1 start at home vs the Reds this season he pitched 7 innings and allowed 1 ER. Cincy is struggling at the plate right now and we expect them to have problems plating runs tonight. That shouldn’t be a problem for St Louis. They will be facing Chase Anderson who has pitched only 9 innings this season, but 2.1 of those innings have come vs the Cardinals. They faced him twice just 2 weeks ago and Anderson gave up 7 ER’s in only 2.1 innings. On the season he’s allowed 3 home runs in just 9 innings which is a potential big problem here vs the Cards who are averaging 1.3 HR’s per game and have hit the most round trippers in MLB since the All Star Break. Anderson is backed up by the worst bullpen in MLB (highest ERA and 2nd highest WHIP) so we don’t expect the offense to stop when he exits. Cincinnati is just 27-43 on the road this year and vs teams over .500 they have the 2nd fewest wins in the Majors with a record of 25-53. We like the host Cardinals to win this one by 2+ runs. |
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09-14-22 | Orioles v. Nationals +135 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 23 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Washington Nationals +130 vs. Baltimore Orioles, 7 PM ET - This sets up nicely with a big underdog win on Wednesday with the Nats. Washington is 25th in runs/9 innings scored on the season but 10th in team batting average at .252. The Nationals though have put up 74 runs in their last 14 games or 5.28 runs per game which is 4th highest in baseball. Baltimore can’t say the same as they’ve scored 49 runs in that same span of 14 games and average just 4.23 runs/9 innings which is 21st in MLB. In comparing each team's last ten games we find the Nats are hitting .308 as a team while scoring 5.30 runs/9 innings. The Orioles are putting up just 3.87 runs/9 innings their last ten games and hitting just .220. Baltimore is starting pitcher Alexander Well who is a reliever so it’s going to be a heavy bullpen game for the O’s. Washington will counter with Patrick Corbin who doesn’t have great numbers at first glance with a 6-18 record and 6.30 ERA for the year. Most recently, Corbin has faced a brutally tough schedule which included starts against the Mets and Phillies twice, the Braves and Dodgers who all rank top 6 in runs scored per game. We like the situation here with the home dog. |
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09-12-22 | Cubs v. Mets -1.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -135 | 7 h 36 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* NY Mets -1.5 (-135) vs Chicago Cubs @ 7:10 PM ET - The Cubs are struggling to score runs with 39 scored in their last 12 games or 3.25 per game. The Mets are 5th in baseball in total runs scored on the season at 666 in 141 games. New York is putting up an average of 5.52 runs per 9/innings over the course of their last ten games. In the Mets last two games they outscored Miami 20-6. Chicago has been shutout twice in their last ten games and scored 3 or less in six games. Looking closer, in their last ten games the Mets are hitting .297 as a team versus right-handed pitchers and scoring 6.28 runs/9innings. The Cubs are hitting .239 as a team vs. righties in their last ten games scoring 3.68 runs/9 innings. NY will send Chris Bassett who is 13-7 SU on the season with a 3.24 ERA. In his last ten starts though Bassett has allowed 2.23 Earned Runs Per game while allowing just 5.46 hits. The Cubs will counter with young Javier Assad who is 0-1 in three starts with a 2.93 ERA. He was recently roughed up by the Reds in 5.1 innings when he allowed 4 earned runs on 5 hits. The Mets get a big home win in this game as they battle the Braves for the Division lead. |
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09-11-22 | Bucs v. Cowboys +2.5 | Top | 19-3 | Loss | -105 | 34 h 51 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Dallas Cowboys +2.5 over Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 8:20 PM ET - Tom Brady has some of the most impressive numbers of all time, but do you know who has a lifetime undefeated record? Father time! Brady is dealing with some off-field family distractions and is now 45-years old. He’s playing behind a rebuilt offensive line missing 3 starters and he doesn’t do well when pressured. Did you know the Cowboys had the 2nd best DVOA numbers last season behind only the Bills. The Cowboys pass defense was 2nd in the league in both Opponent Completion Percentage at 59.65% and Opponent Average Passer rating at 76.2. The Bucs can’t rely on their running game which was 26th in the league last year averaging 96.3 rushing yards per game. The Cowboys can lean on Elliott and the running game here with the 9th best rushing offense in the NFL a year ago at 122YPG. Dallas can use their passing attack to soften up a stout Tampa rush D as the Bucs were 24th in passing yards allowed per game at 245.3. The Cowboys were the 4th best passing offense in the NFL last season at 279.4PYPG. The Cowboys have been home underdogs 6 times since 2018 and they’ve covered every one of those games winning outright by an average of +13.7PPG. Grab the points. |
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09-10-22 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 22 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 11.5 Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies, 8 PM ET - There will be plenty of runs scored in the higher altitude of Denver Saturday night when the D’backs take on the Rockies. In the last 15-days no team in baseball has scored more runs than Arizona who has put up 88 runs in 14 games going into Friday night. These same two teams just put up 23 runs Friday. Colorado scores an average of 5.76 runs per game at home with their home contests averaging 11.44 runs. The Rockies have hit lefties extremely well of late with a team average of .284 in their last ten games. Arizona is white hot while facing righties with a .302 team average in their last ten games while averaging 5.0 runs per 9 innings. Neither pitcher has us scared as Bumgarner is 6-13 SU for the D’Backs with a 4.83 ERA this season. Urena for the Rockies is even worse with a 3-6 record and 6.13 ERA. Both teams score a bunch again Saturday. |
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09-10-22 | Old Dominion v. East Carolina -12.5 | Top | 21-39 | Win | 100 | 19 h 49 m | Show |
#370 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* East Carolina -12.5 over Old Dominion, Saturday at 6 PM ET - ODU is coming off one of their biggest upsets in school history knocking off Virginia Tech last week 20-17 despite getting outgained by 100 yards in the game. VT under a new HC and new schemes on both sides of the ball imploded with 5 turnovers in the game, which led directly to 17 of ODU’s 20 points. The Monarch offense was not good averaging just 3.6 YPP and getting beat at the line of scrimmage putting up only 2.5 YPC. They scored a TD with 30 seconds left in the game to pick up the win and the only TD the scored prior to that was a fumble return. ECU comes in with the opposite scenario. They outplayed one of the top teams in the country, NC State, yet lost 21-20. The Pirates outgained the Wolfpack, who many picked to be the top team in the ACC this season, but missed a late FG and had a punt blocked and returned for a TD. The Pirates held up well in the trenches averaging 4.3 YPC vs one of the top defensive lines in the nation. The ECU defense held the NC State offense to just 14 points on 344 total yards. That’s a Wolfpack offense that averaged 31 PPG and 414 YPG last season and brought back most of their key players including QB Leary. Offensively, the Pirates have a huge edge at QB in this one with Ahlers starting for the 5th straight season! He has thrown for more than 10,000 career yards with 90 total TD’s. ODU QB Wolff took over midway through last season and was fairly average. Last week, in their fortunate win, he completed only 40% of his passes and was under constant pressure (weak OLine for ODU). The Monarch fans stormed the field last week and now ODU must travel after that huge win. ECU will be out for blood here and we’ll call for any easy win. |
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09-09-22 | Boise State -17 v. New Mexico | Top | 31-14 | Push | 0 | 33 h 24 m | Show |
#317 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Boise State -17 over New Mexico, Friday at 9 PM ET - Boise will come out with a chip on their shoulder here after getting blitzed @ Oregon State last weekend 34-17. The Broncos first half offensively was a disaster due to turnovers. They had the ball 9 times in the first half and turned the ball over on 4 of those possessions and missed a short FG on another. In all they had 5 turnovers in the game which killed any offensive momentum they could gather. After the break BSU was much better scoring 17 points and punting just once. That loss prevents them from overlooking this game @ New Mexico as the Broncos cannot afford to go 0-2 to start the season. The Lobos won big last week vs FCS Maine but not much can be taken from that game vs a vastly inferior opponent. They dominated the stats, as we to be expected, but also ran 26 more offensive snaps on their game vs the Black Bears. Now New Mexico takes a huge step up this weekend while Boise takes a fairly significant step down. Last year these 2 met in Boise and the Broncos 37-0 win as a 27-point chalk and New Mexico barely cracked 100 yards of total offense. Boise has dominated this series winning 5 straight with 4 of those wins coming by at least 28 points. New Mexico is fairly inexperienced and their new transfer QB Kendrick didn’t play much at Kansas the last few years and will be operating behind an OLine that has just 22 returning starts ranking them 130th out of 131 teams. This Lobo team average just 12 PPG last year and will have big problems vs this experienced and very solid Boise defense. After winning their first 2 home games last year vs low level competition (Houston Baptist & NMSU) the Lobos lost their final 4 games by margins of 29, 29, 25, and 14 points. The much better team has all kinds of motivation this weekend and they will roll. Take Boise State. |
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09-09-22 | Giants v. Cubs UNDER 8 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 14 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 8 RUNS San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs, 4 PM ET - The Cubs continue to struggle at the plate and were no-hit through 4 innings yesterday by an average pitcher for the Reds in Luis Cessa. Today it will be even tougher to manage runs against the Giants starter Carlos Rodon who is 12-7 on the year with a 2.92 ERA. Rodon has 201 strikeouts on the season in 157.3 innings pitched and the Cubs rank 6th worst in K’s on the season. Rodon has double-digit strikeouts in 5 of his last eight starts. On the season the Cubs rank 23rd in runs per 9 innings with 4.12 scored. In their last twelve games that average has dipped to 3.50 runs per game. The Giants haven’t been hitting much better than Chicago in recent games either and will struggle to score in this game too. San Francisco averages 4.52 runs per 9 innings on the season but in their last 14 games they are averaging just 4.00 runs/9 innings and hitting .225 as a team. The Giants will face the Cubs starter Drew Smyly who is coming off one of his worst outings of the season at St Louis but had pitched well in five straight prior to the Cardinals. Smyly gave up 7 earned runs to the hot-hitting Cards but prior to that he had allowed just 3 earned runs in five games or 29.3 innings of work. In three of the four meetings between these two teams this season they have totaled 6 or less runs. BET UNDER HERE! |
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09-08-22 | Bills v. Rams UNDER 52 | Top | 31-10 | Win | 100 | 21 h 1 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 52 Buffalo Bills @ Los Angeles Rams, Thursday 8:20 PM ET - This is obviously a huge marquee showdown between two teams capable of winning it all in 2022-23 and excitement is high for the start of the season. The oddsmakers know it and have set this number slightly higher than it should be. With that in mind we will play Under here in a game our computers are predicting 48 total points scored. Before we talk about the teams let’s address points or scoring in the NFL. Scoring in the NFL dropped last season after teams averaged 24.8PPG two years ago when there weren’t fans in the stands due to Covid. That in turn made it easier for QB’s to audible and there were fewer offensive penalties. Last season we saw a return to the norm or 23PPG per team or 46-total points per game. Those numbers are more in line with 2013-2019 numbers. Both teams are slightly faster in pace than average (Rams 11th, Bills 14th) but they clearly aren’t overly fast by league standards. When it comes to defense, these two teams are two of the best in the league. The Bills were 1st DVOA last season, the Rams finished 5th. The Bills had the 11th best Yards Per Point defense in the NFL, the Rams were 13th. The Bills allowed the least number of points per game a year ago at 18.3PPG, the Rams were 9th best giving up just 21.3PPG. Both teams have big play capability on offense with Josh Allen and Matt Stafford but in the opener, we see both defenses dominating. Take the value and UNDER in this one. |
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09-08-22 | Reds v. Cubs OVER 8 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 24 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 8 RUNS Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs, 2:20 PM ET - These two teams pounded out 22 hits yesterday but only produced 8 runs. Our analytics suggest that both teams will have similar results at the plate today, but the run production will be higher. In each team's last ten games the combined total runs scored has been 9.10 for the Reds and 9.40 for the Cubs. Chicago has struggled to score runs lately but did put up 9 in the first game of this series. Chicago should put up solid offensive numbers here against the Reds starting pitcher Luis Cessa who has a 5.18 ERA and 5.47 FIP. Cessa has mainly been a reliever this year but has started three straight games while allowing 11 hits and 3 earned runs in 11 total innings. The Cubs are also a better hitting team against right-handed pitchers with a .241 team average and 6.5 runs per game on the season. The Reds run production is up in their last five games at 5.4 and they should put up plenty of runs against the Cubs starter Sampson early on. Sampson is 1-5 on the season with a 3.95 ERA and an expected XERA of 4.47. He has allowed 8 earned runs, 17 hits in his last 11.2 innings of work. The Reds also hit right-handed pitchers well with a .250 team average in their last ten games and a 5.6 runs per game average. Lastly, this will be a high bullpen usage game and both bullpens are atrocious. Cincinnati has the worst ERA of any bullpen in baseball and the Cubs are 24th. Bet the OVER here. |
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09-07-22 | Guardians v. Royals +127 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 127 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Kansas City Royals +120 vs. Cleveland Guardians, 8:10 PM ET - We like the small dog here on the moneyline and predict a solid win by the home team Royals. The Royals starter Zach Greinke is not the pitcher he once was, but he’ll be good enough here versus a struggling Cleveland lineup. Greinke is 4-8 SU on the year with a 4.14 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. He has pitched better in his last three starts allowing 3 earned runs in 16.1 inning pitched. In the last 15-days the Guardians are hitting .234 as a team but producing just 2.51 runs per game. That’s a stark contrast to the Royals who have put up 65 runs in their last 12 games over 5.41 runs per game. Kansas City should maintain that run production against Cleveland starter Cody Morris who is 0-1 on the season with a 9.00 ERA. In his lone start, Morris, pitched 2 innings versus Seattle allowing 4 hits and 2 earned runs. Kansas City beat Cleveland 5-1 earlier this year with Greinke on the mound. Greinke went 5 solid innings allowing just 3 hits, striking out 5 and not allowing a run. After dropping the first two games of the series we like KC to get a home win here. |
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ASA ALL Sports Top Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-12-22 | Kansas v. Texas Tech -3.5 | Top | 28-43 | Win | 100 | 19 h 53 m | Show |
11-11-22 | Kings v. Lakers OVER 231.5 | Top | 120-114 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
11-11-22 | Stanford v. Wisconsin UNDER 137.5 | Top | 50-60 | Win | 100 | 20 h 42 m | Show |
11-10-22 | Falcons v. Panthers +2.5 | Top | 15-25 | Win | 100 | 20 h 48 m | Show |
11-09-22 | Suns v. Wolves UNDER 223 | Top | 129-117 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
11-09-22 | Jazz v. Hawks -2.5 | Top | 125-119 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 36 m | Show |
11-08-22 | Golden Knights v. Maple Leafs -117 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -117 | 8 h 1 m | Show |
11-07-22 | Ravens v. Saints +1.5 | Top | 27-13 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
11-07-22 | Thunder v. Pistons +2 | Top | 103-112 | Win | 100 | 7 h 47 m | Show |
11-06-22 | Titans v. Chiefs -12 | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 31 m | Show |
11-06-22 | Bills v. Jets UNDER 46 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 25 h 39 m | Show |
11-05-22 | Wake Forest -3.5 v. NC State | Top | 21-30 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 23 m | Show |
11-05-22 | Baylor v. Oklahoma OVER 61 | Top | 38-35 | Win | 100 | 24 h 28 m | Show |
11-04-22 | Cavs v. Pistons UNDER 220 | Top | 112-88 | Win | 100 | 7 h 58 m | Show |
11-03-22 | Eagles v. Texans UNDER 45.5 | Top | 29-17 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
11-03-22 | Nuggets v. Thunder +6.5 | Top | 122-110 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
11-03-22 | Appalachian State -3 v. Coastal Carolina | Top | 28-35 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 46 m | Show |
11-02-22 | Hornets +6 v. Bulls | Top | 88-106 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 4 m | Show |
11-02-22 | Central Michigan v. Northern Illinois -5.5 | Top | 35-22 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 60 m | Show |
11-01-22 | Seattle Kraken v. Flames OVER 6 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
11-01-22 | Astros v. Phillies OVER 7.5 | Top | 0-7 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 17 m | Show |
11-01-22 | Warriors v. Heat -105 | Top | 109-116 | Win | 100 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
10-31-22 | Bengals v. Browns UNDER 45.5 | Top | 13-32 | Win | 100 | 19 h 13 m | Show |
10-31-22 | Hawks +3.5 v. Raptors | Top | 109-139 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 3 m | Show |
10-30-22 | 49ers v. Rams UNDER 42 | Top | 31-14 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 6 m | Show |
10-30-22 | Cardinals +3.5 v. Vikings | Top | 26-34 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 59 m | Show |
10-30-22 | Wyoming v. Hawaii UNDER 51 | Top | 27-20 | Win | 100 | 25 h 49 m | Show |
10-29-22 | Phillies v. Astros UNDER 7 | Top | 2-5 | Push | 0 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
10-29-22 | Missouri +3.5 v. South Carolina | Top | 23-10 | Win | 100 | 17 h 33 m | Show |
10-28-22 | Bulls v. Spurs OVER 228.5 | Top | 124-129 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
10-27-22 | Ravens v. Bucs UNDER 46 | Top | 27-22 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
10-27-22 | Mavs v. Nets UNDER 228.5 | Top | 129-125 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 13 m | Show |
10-26-22 | Spurs v. Wolves OVER 233.5 | Top | 122-134 | Win | 100 | 9 h 1 m | Show |
10-26-22 | Oilers -110 v. Blues | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 60 m | Show |
10-25-22 | Warriors v. Suns UNDER 226 | Top | 105-134 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
10-24-22 | Bears v. Patriots -8 | Top | 33-14 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 37 m | Show |
10-23-22 | Chiefs v. 49ers +1 | Top | 44-23 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 13 m | Show |
10-23-22 | Bucs v. Panthers UNDER 39.5 | Top | 3-21 | Win | 100 | 24 h 16 m | Show |
10-22-22 | Boise State +2.5 v. Air Force | Top | 19-14 | Win | 100 | 30 h 31 m | Show |
10-22-22 | Eastern Michigan v. Ball State OVER 58.5 | Top | 20-16 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 36 m | Show |
10-21-22 | Padres v. Phillies OVER 7.5 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 27 m | Show |
10-20-22 | Saints v. Cardinals UNDER 44.5 | Top | 34-42 | Loss | -110 | 46 h 34 m | Show |
10-20-22 | Bucks v. 76ers -3.5 | Top | 90-88 | Loss | -105 | 44 h 3 m | Show |
10-19-22 | Cavs v. Raptors UNDER 215 | Top | 105-108 | Win | 100 | 20 h 28 m | Show |
10-19-22 | Phillies v. Padres UNDER 7 | Top | 5-8 | Loss | -125 | 5 h 52 m | Show |
10-18-22 | 76ers v. Celtics UNDER 216.5 | Top | 117-126 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 12 m | Show |
10-18-22 | Guardians +165 v. Yankees | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 36 m | Show |
10-17-22 | Broncos +4.5 v. Chargers | Top | 16-19 | Win | 100 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
10-16-22 | Cowboys v. Eagles -6 | Top | 17-26 | Win | 100 | 21 h 58 m | Show |
10-16-22 | Panthers v. Rams UNDER 41.5 | Top | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 27 h 16 m | Show |
10-16-22 | 49ers v. Falcons +4.5 | Top | 14-28 | Win | 100 | 25 h 38 m | Show |
10-15-22 | Mississippi State v. Kentucky +4 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 19 h 35 m | Show |
10-15-22 | Kent State +8 v. Toledo | Top | 31-52 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 37 m | Show |
10-11-22 | Padres v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 23 h 3 m | Show |
10-10-22 | Raiders v. Chiefs OVER 51.5 | Top | 29-30 | Win | 100 | 8 h 39 m | Show |
10-09-22 | Cowboys v. Rams UNDER 42.5 | Top | 22-10 | Win | 100 | 27 h 19 m | Show |
10-09-22 | Dolphins -3 v. Jets | Top | 17-40 | Loss | -120 | 24 h 17 m | Show |
10-08-22 | Kansas State v. Iowa State +1.5 | Top | 10-9 | Win | 100 | 20 h 28 m | Show |
10-08-22 | UTEP v. Louisiana Tech -2.5 | Top | 31-41 | Win | 100 | 20 h 16 m | Show |
10-08-22 | Texas Tech +9.5 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 31-41 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 59 m | Show |
10-07-22 | Houston v. Memphis OVER 57.5 | Top | 33-32 | Win | 100 | 31 h 37 m | Show |
10-07-22 | Rays v. Guardians UNDER 6 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
10-06-22 | Colts v. Broncos UNDER 43.5 | Top | 12-9 | Win | 100 | 56 h 5 m | Show |
10-05-22 | SMU +3 v. Central Florida | Top | 19-41 | Loss | -110 | 44 h 41 m | Show |
10-04-22 | Angels -135 v. A's | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -135 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
10-03-22 | Cubs +116 v. Reds | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 13 m | Show |
10-02-22 | Cardinals +1 v. Panthers | Top | 26-16 | Win | 100 | 27 h 27 m | Show |
10-02-22 | Chargers v. Texans UNDER 45.5 | Top | 34-24 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 44 m | Show |
10-01-22 | Indiana v. Nebraska OVER 60.5 | Top | 21-35 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 33 m | Show |
10-01-22 | Texas A&M v. Mississippi State -3.5 | Top | 24-42 | Win | 100 | 16 h 26 m | Show |
09-30-22 | Tulane +2.5 v. Houston | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 18 h 12 m | Show |
09-29-22 | A's v. Angels UNDER 7 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
09-29-22 | Dolphins v. Bengals -3.5 | Top | 15-27 | Win | 100 | 68 h 54 m | Show |
09-27-22 | Cardinals v. Brewers OVER 8.5 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
09-26-22 | Cowboys v. Giants UNDER 39 | Top | 23-16 | Push | 0 | 7 h 45 m | Show |
09-25-22 | Eagles v. Washington Commanders +6.5 | Top | 24-8 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 13 m | Show |
09-25-22 | Bills v. Dolphins OVER 53 | Top | 19-21 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 54 m | Show |
09-24-22 | Arkansas +2 v. Texas A&M | Top | 21-23 | Push | 0 | 22 h 8 m | Show |
09-24-22 | Northern Illinois v. Kentucky UNDER 54 | Top | 23-31 | Push | 0 | 22 h 43 m | Show |
09-23-22 | Angels v. Twins UNDER 7 | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
09-22-22 | Steelers v. Browns -4 | Top | 17-29 | Win | 100 | 21 h 20 m | Show |
09-22-22 | Coastal Carolina v. Georgia State +2.5 | Top | 41-24 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 5 m | Show |
09-20-22 | Red Sox v. Reds +103 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 51 m | Show |
09-19-22 | Vikings v. Eagles OVER 48.5 | Top | 7-24 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
09-19-22 | Tigers v. Orioles -1.5 | Top | 11-0 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 26 m | Show |
09-18-22 | Bears v. Packers -10 | Top | 10-27 | Win | 100 | 31 h 49 m | Show |
09-18-22 | Dolphins v. Ravens UNDER 44.5 | Top | 42-38 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 15 m | Show |
09-17-22 | San Diego State v. Utah -21 | Top | 7-35 | Win | 100 | 33 h 42 m | Show |
09-15-22 | Chargers v. Chiefs UNDER 54.5 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 21 h 24 m | Show |
09-15-22 | Reds v. Cardinals -1.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -127 | 8 h 32 m | Show |
09-14-22 | Orioles v. Nationals +135 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 23 m | Show |
09-12-22 | Cubs v. Mets -1.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -135 | 7 h 36 m | Show |
09-11-22 | Bucs v. Cowboys +2.5 | Top | 19-3 | Loss | -105 | 34 h 51 m | Show |
09-10-22 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 22 m | Show |
09-10-22 | Old Dominion v. East Carolina -12.5 | Top | 21-39 | Win | 100 | 19 h 49 m | Show |
09-09-22 | Boise State -17 v. New Mexico | Top | 31-14 | Push | 0 | 33 h 24 m | Show |
09-09-22 | Giants v. Cubs UNDER 8 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 14 m | Show |
09-08-22 | Bills v. Rams UNDER 52 | Top | 31-10 | Win | 100 | 21 h 1 m | Show |
09-08-22 | Reds v. Cubs OVER 8 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 24 m | Show |
09-07-22 | Guardians v. Royals +127 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 127 | 9 h 35 m | Show |