Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-05-20 | Suns v. Pistons OVER 218 | Top | 108-116 | Win | 100 | 7 h 25 m | Show |
I'm playing on Phoenix/Detroit OVER the total. These teams have little reason to play defense in this one. They're both playing out the string and they're both from opposite conferences. They should both be able to score plenty of points though. The Suns have seen the OVER go 10-7 against teams from the East. The Pistons have seen the OVER go 10-5 against teams from the West. The Suns' last two visits here produced 225 and 238 points, both finishing above the total. The OVER has been money in games here all season long including a 9-4 mark when the Pistons were home underdogs. Games here are averaging more than 225. Phoenix road games are also averaging more than 225. Look for this one to prove higher-scoring than most will be expecting. |
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02-05-20 | Iowa v. Purdue -3 | Top | 68-104 | Win | 100 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
I'm playing on PURDUE. Admittedly, the Hawkeyes are tough this year. Beating them will require the Boilermakers' very best effort. I believe thats what we'll get tonight. Purdue, which has battled inconsistency, badly needs to string together some wins, if it wants to get to the Big Dance. Remember, this Boilermaker team has beaten Virginia by a score of 69-40. They've beaten Michigan State by a score of 71-42 and they beat Wisconsin by a score of 70-51. Indeed, when this team is good, it can be really good. The Hawkeyes are just 6-16-1 ATS the past 2+ seasons, as road underdogs, 7-20-1 ATS in road lined games overall. During that span, Purdue is 24-16 ATS (37-3 SU!) as a home favorite. Desperate for the victory, look for the "good Purdue" to show up, as homecourt proves the difference, the Boilers getting the win and cover. |
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02-04-20 | Spurs v. Lakers OVER 229 | Top | 102-129 | Win | 100 | 14 h 33 m | Show |
I'm playing on LA/SA OVER the total. With the Spurs off a hard-fought loss last night, the Lakers should be happy to push the pace tonight. Not only is the OVER 11-2-1 when they were off a road loss but the OVER is also 21-10-1 the past 2+ seasons when the Spurs were playing the second of b2b games, 2-0 in 2020. The Lakers have seen three of their last four finish above the 240-mark. Don't be surprised when they get there again. |
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02-04-20 | Ball State v. Kent State OVER 134.5 | Top | 62-54 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
I'm playing on Ball State/Kent State OVER the total. I believe that this O/U number could easily be higher. When these teams last met, almost exactly one year ago, the O/U line was 151.5. They combined for 163. The previous two meetings both had O/U lines of 145. Those games produced 149 and 155 points. The one before that was the last meeting here at Kent State. That one had an O/U line of 147.5 and finished with 168. Indeed, these teams have a definite history of putting up some points, when facing each other. True, Ball State has been involved in some low-scoring games of late. Thats the reason we're working with such a low number. However, keep in mind that Kent State's last four games have all finished with at least 135. In fact, the Golden Flashes have seen 14 of their last 15 finish with 135 or more. The only exception was a 130-point game at WMU on 1/18. Their last 16 have all finished with at least 130. As for the Cards' recent low-scoring games, the OVER is 6-2-1 the last nine, 2-0-1 this season, when they were off b2b games where they scored 65 or less. Look for this one to prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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02-04-20 | Tennessee +5.5 v. Alabama | Top | 69-68 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
I'm playing on TENNESSEE. While its been a tough stretch, the Vols are going to battle hard until the final buzzer under Coach Barnes. Note that the Vols are 8-1 (SU) the past nine times that they were off a double-digit loss and they're 3-1 SU/ATS their last four in that situation. A win here would go a long way in turning their season around. I believe they're catching the Tide at the right time. Alabama is off b2b losses and its last win came by just three points. Last season's lone meeting was decided by just three points. I see this one also coming right down to the wire and am grabbing the points. |
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02-03-20 | Wolves v. Kings UNDER 228 | Top | 109-113 | Win | 100 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
I'm playing on Minnesota/Sacramento UNDER the total. These teams just met at Minnesota, on 1/27. You probably remember. The Kings completed a crazy comeback to force OT and win the game. I also had the 'under' and was absolutely thinking to myself, "What are they doing with starters like Hield still in there? This game is finished, pull the starters! ..." It wasn't. Anyway, the very high final score was somewhat misleading due to the crazy finish and the game going to OT. I expect it to have a motivated effect on the Minnesota defense for this one. That was a defensive meltdown in the closing minute and they're going to want to show that they're better defensively. As for the Kings, they are pretty stingy. Their games are still averaging just 218.4 points, 218 here at home. Even after b2b high-scoring games, they still average only 107 ppg. Look for the UNDER to improve to 6-3 when the Kings were off b2b games where they scored 110 or more. |
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02-03-20 | Texas v. Kansas -14 | Top | 58-69 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
I'm playing on KANSAS. Playing with "revenge" from an earlier loss at Texas, the Longhorns may see some love from bettors here. Sure, Texas would love to avenge that loss. However, wanting to win and being able to win, are two entirely different matters. Indeed, if they couldn't beat the Jayhawks when playing at Texas, why should they be able to beat them here? Note that Texas is just 20-46 SU over the year, when attempting to avenge a home loss. That includes a 4-6 ATS (3-7 SU) mark their past 10 in that situation. Sure, Texas is off b2b victories. However, the Longhorns are 0-8 ATS this season, after winning their previous two (or more) games. The Jayhawks are off a 3-point win against Texas Tech, which wasn't enough to cover the spread. They're 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS off a non-cover but SU win. Expect them to improve on those stats in blowout fashion tonight. |
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02-03-20 | Knicks v. Cavs -1.5 | Top | 139-134 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
I'm playing on CLEVELAND. Winnable home games are few and far between for the Cavs these days. This is one that they can win and I expect them to make the most of the opportunity. The Cavs are currently 0-3 on their 4-game homestand. They're going to really want to salvage something and I expect a highly motivated effort. The fact that the Knicks hammered them here only a couple of weeks ago will provide even further incentive. Note that Cleveland is a solid 9-6-1 ATS its last 16, when attempting to avenge a home loss of 20 or more points. Off an upset of the Pacers, the Knicks should be ripe for a letdown. They're 3-5 ATS (2-6 SU) when off an upset (SU win as an underdog) win. Cavs roll. |
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02-02-20 | Pelicans v. Rockets -5 | Top | 109-117 | Win | 100 | 6 h 2 m | Show |
I'm playing on HOUSTON. With the Pelicans suddenly a popular team, thanks to Zion Williamson, we now get the Rockets at a much lower line than we could have otherwise. I feel thats providing excellent value with the still superior team. Note that Houston is 17-12-2 ATS as a home favorite of six or less, the past 2+ seasons. Consider that the Rockets were laying -12 points the last time these teams met here. The last meeting overall was at New Orleans on 12/29 and the Pelicans hammered the Rockets. The Rockets haven't forgotten. Off a 7-point win against Dallas, note that Houston is 3-1 ATS (4-0 SU) its last four off a division win and 16-8-2 ATS (21-5 SU) its last 26 in that situation. Expect them to improve on those stats this afternoon. |
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02-02-20 | Northern Kentucky v. Wisc-Milwaukee +5.5 | Top | 65-56 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 32 m | Show |
I'm playing on WISCONSIN-MILWAUKEE. I really like the Panthers' chances of winning this one outright. After a slow start, the Panthers have won five of eight. This is a critical game for them if they want to compete with the top teams in the conference this season. While the Norse have been tough, this is their third straight on the road. Northern Kentucky does allow fewer points but the Wisc-Milwaukee scores considerably more at home than NKU does on the road. The Norse average 66.1 ppg on the road, the Panthers average 77.5 ppg at home. The Panthers are 8-5 ATS the past couple of seasons as home underdogs. Expect them to give their best effort and to improve on those stats this afternoon. |
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02-01-20 | Montana State v. Montana -6 | Top | 64-78 | Win | 100 | 14 h 44 m | Show |
I'm playing on MONTANA. This will be the 300th time that these two instate rivals will have taken the court against each other. Needless to say, its an intense rivalry. The series has been remarkably close. Montana leads 151-148. Thats thanks to a sweep last year and 17 wins in the 18 meetings. Indeed, the Grizzlies have dominated in recent seasons. I expect them to have the edge again this evening. Former Montana State player Danny Sprinkle is coaching in the rivalry for the first time. He's done a pretty good job thus far, given what he has to work with, but I expect this game to prove to be a reality check. Sprinkle said his team would be more defensive minded this season and thats been the case. However, the Bobcats don't score enough to keep up with the Grizzlies. MSU averages 64.8 ppg in Big Sky action this season while Montana averages 74.2. The Grizzlies connect on 48.1 fg percentage, top in the conference. The Bobcats are 10th at 41%. Playing at home, expect the Grizzlies to be able to dictate the tempo and ultimately for the Bobcats to be unable to keep up. |
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02-01-20 | Louisville v. NC State OVER 140 | Top | 77-57 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 57 m | Show |
I'm playing on Louisville/NC State OVER the total. While they're also stingy defensively, the Cardinals are dangerous offensively. They scored 86 points last game and 80 in the game before that. On the season, they average more than 75. The Wolf Pack know that they're going to need to put up a fairly big number if they want to keep up. Note that four of Louisville's last five games have finished above the total. Yet, because NC State has been on an 'under' streak, we're still working with a reasonably low O/U line. Note that last season's lone game had an O/U line of 155 and finished with 161. In fact, the last three meetings have all had O/U lines in the 150s. Obviously, we're working with a much lower number here, providing plenty of line value. Look for the final score to prove higher than most will be expecting. |
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01-31-20 | Wright State v. Wisc-Milwaukee UNDER 151 | Top | 65-61 | Win | 100 | 26 h 3 m | Show |
I'm playing on Wright State/Wisc. Milwaukee UNDER the total. This is a very high O/U number and I believe that it'll prove to be too high. When these teams met at Wright State at the end of December, the O/U line was 146. That game snuck over the total with 152. However, the last meeting here at Milwaukee produced only 127 points, staying below the total of 137. In fact, before the 12/30 game, the previous 28 meetings between these teams ALL had O/U lines of less than 140. Needless to say, we're working with a much higher total here, providing excellent line value and plenty of room to work with. With Wright State off a big win over Northern Kentucky, note that the UNDER is 5-1 the past six times that the Raiders were off a win of 20 or more points. The UNDER is also 5-0 the last five times that the Panthers hosted a team with a winning road record. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting, the final combined score staying beneath the generously high total. |
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01-31-20 | Raptors v. Pistons +4.5 | Top | 105-92 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 12 m | Show |
I'm playing on DETROIT. I believe that this game will mean a lot to the Pistons. This will be the third time that Coach Casey has faced the Raptors, since Toronto won the NBA title. The first game was way back on 10/30. Still riding the high from their title, the Raptors won by a dozen. Then, in mid-December, the champs came in here and won by 13. Casey wouldn't be human if he didn't feel a bit of bitterness towards the Raptors, a team he had a lot of success coaching, before getting fired. I believe his players will play hard for him tonight. While the Pistons had yesterday off, the Raptors are off a game against the Cavs. Yes, the Pistons have failed to cover four in a row. However, the last time that they had failed to cover four straight, they responded with a double-digit win at Boston. Schedule and venue in their favor, expect the Pistons' best effort tonight. |
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01-30-20 | SIU-Edwardsville +17.5 v. Austin Peay | Top | 58-82 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 19 m | Show |
I'm playing on SIU - EDWARDSVILLE. This may not be the most exciting matchup on the Thursday card but that doesn't mean that it doesn't offer us value. The Governors have been on quite a roll and it should be easy for them to start patting themselves on the back. I believe the line has become inflated. Sure, the Cougars have lost nine straight in this series. However, those losses came by an average of 10 points, not 17. This is an experienced team led by its seniors. No team has beaten the Cougars by more than eight points since before Christmas. The Cougars are 12-7 ATS the past couple of seasons, when off a home loss. During that span, the Governors are 3-6 ATS when off two or more consecutive home wins. Look for this one to be a lot more competitive than many will be expecting. |
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01-30-20 | Raptors v. Cavs +10 | Top | 115-109 | Win | 100 | 25 h 6 m | Show |
I'm playing on CLEVELAND. The Cavs have already lost twice by 20 points to the Raptors this season. I feel that they'll be motivated to avoid having it happen for a third time. Both those previous games were at Toronto, this is the first meeting of the season here at Cleveland. The last time that the Raptors played here was last March. The Raptors were favored by -8.5 points but the Cavs won outright by 25. After that game, Love commented: "That was a great win for us. Especially against a real good team at home. It was fun." You may recall that game. Not only was it a major upset but there was a brawl. I feel it may have the Cavs a little extra fired up for tonight. The champs, who will be without Gasol for this one, are 0-3 ATS as road favorites in the -6.5 to -12 point range. While Toronto plays at Detroit tomorrow, the Cavs have tomorrow off. Their full focus will be on tonight's game. I expect them to give the champs all they can handle with a real shot at the outright win. |
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01-30-20 | Hornets v. Wizards -3.5 | Top | 107-121 | Win | 100 | 25 h 58 m | Show |
I'm playing on WASHINGTON. While I won with them last game, the Hornets are not a good team. Back on the road, I expect them to stumble again. These teams have split a pair of meetings so far this season. In each case, the home team won by seven points. For the game here at Washington, the Wizards were favored by six points. We're getting them at a lower number this evening and I feel thats offering very fair line value. After losing their last two games, both on the road, by 19 and 20 points, the Wizards are going to be in an angry mood and looking to take it out on someone. They're 6-3 ATS the past couple of seasons, when off b2b double-digit losses and that includes a 3-1 ATS mark when off b2b losses of 15 or more points. While the Hornets average 100.9 ppg on the road, the Wizards average 115.2 ppg at home. Expect them to take advantage of the winnable game, covering the small number along the way. |
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01-30-20 | NC-Wilmington v. Towson UNDER 134 | Top | 66-77 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
I'm playing on NC-Wilmington/Towson UNDER the total. The Tigers are playing really well defensively right now and I expect the Seahawks to have real trouble scoring. After going on the road and holding William and Mary to 58, Towson has now allowed 61 or fewer points in three straight games. Thats five of their last six opponents which have scored less than 70; the other got 73. These teams met a few weeks ago, at UNC Wilmington. The O/U line was 132 and they combined for 127. That was when the Seahawks were at home and could score a little. (They still only got 60.) UNC Wilmington has trouble scoring on the road at the best of times, averaging just 61.7 ppg, on only 38.6% field goal shooting, in away games. Now, they're up against the stingiest team in the conference. Look for the UNDER to improve to 5-0 the past five times that the Seahawks attempted to avenge a home loss. |
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01-29-20 | Rockets v. Blazers +2 | Top | 112-125 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
I'm playing on PORTLAND. While I'm happy to grab any points available, I expect the Blazers to win this one outright. I really liked what I saw from Portland in its win over Indiana. Lillard has been on fire of late and he's tough to stop when he gets on one of those rolls. Now, McCollum is also back. Speaking of injuries, Harden has missed the past two games for Houston and is a gametime decision. I'm not counting on him being out - but he could be at less than 100%, if he goes. Either way, I expect a highly determined effort from the Blazers. They are right on cusp of punting on the season or fighting for the playoffs. I don't think the players are ready to quit. They need this win and I expect them to dig deep and get it. Look for the Blazers to improve to 8-1 ATS the past nine times that they were off four or more consec. games where they gave up 110 or more points. |
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01-29-20 | Marquette v. Xavier -2.5 | Top | 84-82 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 46 m | Show |
I'm playing on XAVIER. With Markus Howard leading the way, the Golden Eagles are certainly tough. They hammered the Musketeers, at Marquette, just two weeks ago. Tonight's rematch is at Xavier, however, and the revenge-minded Musketeers are absolutely desperate for the type of quality win which they can earn here. The Golden Eagles lost by four at Butler last time out. While that will have some quick to back them to bounce back, note that they're just 2-6-1 ATS the past nine times that they were off a loss of six or less. Most recently, off a 1-point loss against Providence, Marquette followed it up with a 6-point loss at Seton Hall. The Musketeers are 9-6 ATS (11-4 SU) the past 15 times that they attempted to avenge a road loss. Expect them to improve on those stats this evening. |
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01-28-20 | Utah State v. Wyoming OVER 127 | Top | 68-45 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 46 m | Show |
I'm playing on Utah State/Wyoming OVER the total. This is a low O/U line and I believe that it'll prove to be too low. A look at the past eight meetings between these teams reveals that all eight of those games had O/U lines of at least 135. The OVER is 7-2-1 the past 10 meetings. All 10 of those games produced a minimum of 126 points and nine of the 10 produced at least 135. (One of the two 'unders' was a game which had an O/U line of 149 and finished with 148.) Utah State road games average 141.1 points this season while Wyoming home games average 131.8. Look for the OVER to improve to 9-4 the past 2+ seasons when the Aggies were off b2b wins of 15 or more points. |
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01-28-20 | Knicks v. Hornets -1.5 | Top | 92-97 | Win | 100 | 25 h 48 m | Show |
I'm playing on CHARLOTTE. Home wins have been hard to come by for the Hornets this season but this is a great opportunity for them to get one. While the Hornets haven't been good here, the Knicks have been even worse on the road. Charlotte gets outscored by an average score of 111.1 to 106.2 here. Not good. But the Knicks are much worse away from MSG, getting outscored by an average score of 113.8 to 103.6. Though they covered the big spread against the Bucks, the Hornets lost by double-digits for the third straight time. Thats only happened one previous time this season and they responded with a win and cover. They're now 4-1 ATS off two or more consec. double-digit losses. The Hornets are well rested and they dont play tomorrow. (The Knicks host Memphis tomorrow.) They're sole focus is on getting a rare win. I look for them to get it. |
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01-28-20 | Knicks v. Hornets OVER 209 | Top | 92-97 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
I'm playing on NY/Charlotte OVER the total. This is the lowest O/U line of the eight games on the Tuesday NBA board. I believe that it'll prove to be too low. With the Hornets only slight favorites, this game is essentially a pick'em,. In other words, both teams think they've got a real shot at winning and we should see scoring right up until the final buzzer. NY road games average 217.4 points. Charlotte home games average a near identical 217.3. The OVER is 3-0 when the Knicks were off a double-digit home win and the OVER is also 5-1 when the Hornets were off an ATS win but a SU loss. Look for this one to prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting, the final combined score finishing above the generously low number. |
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01-28-20 | Michigan -4 v. Nebraska | Top | 79-68 | Win | 100 | 24 h 9 m | Show |
I'm playing on MICHIGAN. While its been a tough stretch for the Wolverines, this is an excellent spot to "get healthy." The Wolverines still outscore opposing teams by an average score of 76.6 to 69.6. The Huskers, on the other hand, get outscored by an average score of 75.2 to 72.3. Michigan has beaten Nebraska 10 of the last 11 meetings. The last two saw the Wolverines win by scores of 82-53 and 77-58. Its true that the Wolverines are off a tough 64-62 loss, their fourth straight, at the hands of the Illini. Its also true that they're a perfect 6-0 SU/ATS the past six times that they were off a loss of six or fewer points. Enough's enough. Wolverines bounce back with a much-needed win and cover. |
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01-27-20 | Kings v. Wolves UNDER 226 | Top | 133-129 | Loss | -109 | 15 h 42 m | Show |
I'm playing on Sacramento/Minnesota UNDER the total. The Kings' last game finished nearly 30 points below the number, a 98-81 win at Chicago. Off that dominant defensive effort, I'm expecting another relatively low-scoring affair this evening. The Wolves scored 104 last time out. They've failed to score more than 110 in three of their past four. These teams met once so far this season. They had 98 points at halftime and 109 by the end of the game. The final score of 105-104 stayed below the total (220) by double-digits. We're working with an even higher O/U number this evening, giving us plenty of room to work with. The Kings last visit here came last February. That game also stayed below the total by double-digits, a 112-105 final. The Wolves are favored by three points, at most shops, as of this writing. Thats noteworthy as the UNDER is 7-3 when Minnesota was a home favorite of six or less. Meanwhile, the UNDER is also 6-3 when the Kings were road underdogs of six or less. Going back further finds the UNDER at a lucrative 19-8-1 when the Kings were road underdogs of six or less. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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01-27-20 | North Carolina v. NC State OVER 146 | Top | 75-65 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 34 m | Show |
I'm playing on UNC/NC State OVER the total. Both teams have been profitable "under" teams so far this season. That has led to a relatively low O/U number. I believe that it'll prove to be too low. Consider that the last meeting between these instate rivals had an O/U line of 165. It finished with 209 points. The previous meeting had an O/U line of 173. It finished with 172. The three previous meetings? They had O/U lines of 161, 161 and 170. They finished with combined scores of 185, 186 and 170. Needless to say, we're working with a much lower total here. The UNC offense got going in a big way on Saturday, scoring 94 against Miami. Expect the Heels to carry that positive offensive momentum into tonight's game. With them doing so, it means the Wolfpack are going to need to put up a big number, in order to win. Expect the teams to combine for enough to exceed the relatively low number. |
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01-26-20 | Pacers v. Blazers -1.5 | Top | 129-139 | Win | 100 | 15 h 14 m | Show |
I'm playing on PORTLAND. Yesterday, I successfully played against the Lakers, a Western Conf. team which was at the end of a fairly long road trip and facing an Eastern Conf. opponent. This evening, its the same situation but instead we'll play against an Eastern Conf. team which is at the end of a fairly long trip out West. Indeed, this will be the Pacers' fifth road game in the past eight days. The fact that they won three of the first four games, including each of the past two by double-digits, could make them a little complacent here; the trip has already been a success and it'd be easy to get caught thinking ahead to "getting home." Just ask the Lakers. Note that Indiana is 3-7 SU/ATS the past 10 times it was off b2b double-digit road wins, 0-2 SU/ATS in that situation the past couple of seasons. There should be zero complacency on the part of the Blazers. Times are getting desperate and they know they need all the wins they can get. Thats particularly true with four tough Western. Conf. opponents (Houston, LA, Utah Denver) on deck. They need this game. Facing an Indiana team which they've swept each of the past two seasons, I expect the Blazers to take care of business. |
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01-26-20 | Nets v. Knicks OVER 222 | Top | 97-110 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
I'm playing on NY/Brooklyn OVER the total. While they needed OT to get there yesterday, the Nets have now seen five of their past six games, including each of their past three, finish above the total. I expect another relatively high-scoring affair at MSG today. Knowing their guests went to OT yesterday, the Knicks should look to push the tempo. They combined with the Raptors for 230 points last game, covering the spread for a fourth consecutive game. Thats noteworthy as the OVER is now a perfect 4-0 when NY had covered its previous three or more games. The Nets, who lost against the Knicks on Boxing Day, have seen the OVER go 7-2 when playing with "same season revenge." Expect a high-scoring affair. |
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01-26-20 | Monmouth v. Iona -2 | Top | 94-88 | Loss | -113 | 7 h 5 m | Show |
I'm playing on IONA. The Hawks won by 12, when these teams met on Jan. 5th in West Long Branch. Playing at home, I expect the Gaels to get some payback this afternoon. In their last two home games, the Gaels have allowed 66 and 57 points. They're now a perfect 5-0 when allowing less than 70 points, but 0-9 when allowing 70 or more. Monmouth, meanwhile, is 0-5 when allowing 73 or more points. Thats noteworthy as Iona scored 81, 81, and 103 points in three 2019 meetings against the Hawks. I say that homecourt proves significant in this one and that the revenge-minded Gaels get some payback. |
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01-25-20 | Washington v. Colorado -8 | Top | 62-76 | Win | 100 | 13 h 6 m | Show |
I'm playing on COLORADO. The Huskies are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. The Buffaloes know that they've lost five straight to Washington and they're ready to settle the score. Since point guard Quade Green got ruled academically ineligible, the Huskies have gone 1-4. The Huskies have blown double-digit second half leads in b2b games. Last time out, they lost 67-66 at Utah, on Thursday. That was a game Washington led the entire way, up until the final 14 seconds. Those are the type of losses that really can take a toll. Off that loss, playing in elevation on the short-turn around against a talented and angry Colorado team, I expect Washington to lose by double-digits. |
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01-25-20 | Lakers v. 76ers +5 | Top | 91-108 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. The Lakers are at the end of a long road trip. I expect it to catch up to them here. The 76ers are going to be in an angry mood after losing to Toronto. A win against the high-flying Lakers would be just what the doctor ordered. Keep in mind that they're 11-4 ATS (12-3 SU) the past 15 times that they were off a road loss against a division rival and 11-3 SU/ATS off a double-digit divisional loss overall. The 76ers hammered the Lakers 143-120 the last time the teams played here. In fact, they've won four of the past five meetings and the lone loss came by just three points. Expect AT LEAST another cover from the highly motivated home team this evening. |
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01-25-20 | Baylor v. Florida UNDER 131 | Top | 72-61 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
I'm playing on Baylor/Florida UNDER the total. The Gators have been one of the SEC's top offensive teams. However, they haven't seen a defense like this one. The Gators get the bulk of their scoring from inside the arc. However, nothing comes easy inside against the Bears. They hold opposing teams to just 41.5% from inside the arc, the 7th best mark in the NCAA. Overall, the Bears allow just 58.5 ppg, which ranks 5th best in the country. While the Gators don't have those type of numbers, they have held two of their last three opponents to 55 or less. Off this season's previous losses, they allowed 60, 62, 51, 63 and 55. Look for this one to prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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01-24-20 | Northern Kentucky v. Wright State -3.5 | Top | 63-95 | Win | 100 | 14 h 51 m | Show |
I'm playing on WRIGHT STATE. These teams both won on their homecourt when playing during the regular season last year. However, the Raiders haven't forgotten that the Norse knocked them out of the Horizon Finals. Indeed, they've had this game circled since the schedule came out. Both teams last played on 1/18. That amount of rest figures to favor the home team. Over the past 2+ seasons, the Norse are 4-10 ATS when playing with five or six day's worth of rest in between games. During the same span, the Raiders are 11-6 ATS when doing so. While they may not have covered (won by 7, when laying -11) I really liked the fact that the Raiders only turned the ball over six times in Saturday's win. That was tied for their fewest number of turnovers, against a Div. 1 team, since 2014. Note that the Norse score 66.7 ppg on the road compared to Wright State's 82.8 ppg at home. They're 9-2 ATS the past 2+ seasons, after failing to cover two or more consecutive games. Off three straight ATS losses, expect the Raiders to respond with a big win and cover tonight. |
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01-24-20 | Raptors v. Knicks +8 | Top | 118-112 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
I'm playing on NY. Off their big win over the rival 76'ers, I feel it'll be easy for the champs to suffer a bit of a letdown against lowly New York. That'll prove costly, however, as the Knicks are playing well right now. In fact, they've covered the spread in three straight. While the Raptors have indeed won five straight, they're just 12-21-1 ATS the past 2+ seasons, when off five or more consec. victories. The Knicks haven't forgotten an earlier 28-point loss at Toronto. They're 9-5 ATS the past 14 times that they attempted to avenge a loss of 20 or more points and that includes a 4-1 ATS mark when attempting to avenge a road loss of 20 or more. Expect them to give their guests all they can handle tonight. |
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01-23-20 | Washington State v. Colorado -13.5 | Top | 56-78 | Win | 100 | 15 h 13 m | Show |
I'm playing on COLORADO. The Cougars are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. The Buffaloes haven't played since getting blown out 75-54 on 1/18, at Arizona. The last time that they were off a loss? Laying -8.5 points, they won by 39! The Colorado/Utah trip is always tough and the front-end of it, in this case, is the most difficult. While the points may seem attractive, consider that the Cougars are 0-4-1 ATS the past five times that they were road underdogs in the +12.5 to +15 point range. During the same span, the Buffaloes were 7-3 ATS when off a double-digit conference loss. Don't be surprised if tonight's game brings back some memories of last year's game here, when the (+11.5) Cougars lost by 32. |
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01-23-20 | Michigan State v. Indiana OVER 142 | Top | 63-67 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 49 m | Show |
I'm playing on MICHIGAN STATE / INDIANA OVER the total. These teams are both solid offensively and both are going to put up a decent number tonight. The Spartans average 78.3 ppg, while connecting on 46.3% of their field goals. The Hoosiers, meanwhile, average 75.1. At home, that number climbs to 81.4 ppg on the strength of a 48.5 field goal percentage. The OVER is 6-2 the past eight times that Indiana played a game with an O/U line in the 140s and that includes a 3-1 mark when playing a home game with an O/U line in the 140 to 144.5 range. I say this one proves higher scoring than many will be expecting. |
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01-23-20 | Wizards v. Cavs -1 | Top | 124-112 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
I'm playing on CLEVELAND. In addition to having the venue in their favor, the Cavs have the schedule working for them here. They come in well-rested while their guests played last night. Not all back-to-back spots are created equally. The Wizards could have easily gone through the motions last night. If they'd suffered a blowout loss, they'd probably be ready to come out strong tonight. However, that didn't happen. Instead, to their credit, the Wizards left it all on the floor. Playing at one of this season's toughest venues (the Heat are now 20-1 at home!) the Wizards took their hosts to OT. Ultimately, Miami won by a 134-129 score. That type of hard-fought loss will take a toll, mentally and physically, on the Wizards tonight. It'll be tougher for them to get up for a game against a Cleveland team playing out the string than it was for last night's game. Beal logged 38 minutes last night, one of four Washington players which was on the floor for 32 or more. The O/U line for this game is in the low 230s, as of this writing. That suits the Cavs just fine. They're 5-1 ATS when playing a home game with an O/U line of 220 or greater and 3-0 ATS when that line climbs to 230 or more. Winnable games don't come around often in Cleveland these days. Look for the Cavs to take advantage of tonight's opportunity. |
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01-22-20 | Indiana State v. Loyola-Chicago OVER 130.5 | Top | 55-75 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
I'm playing on Indiana State / Loyola Chicago OVER the total. These teams last met almost exactly a year ago. The O/U line was 127.5 and they combined for 142. I look for tonight's game to also prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting. The Ramblers average 73.8 ppg and they should exceed that aveage this evening. Thats because the Sycamores have given up at least 77 points in five of their six true road games. Not surprisingly, the OVER is 5-1. Overall, when playing away from home, the Sycamores have seen their games average 148.7. As of this writing, the Ramblers are laying a "touchdown." Thats worth mentioning as the OVER is a healthy 9-5 the past couple of seasons when they've been home favorites in the -6.5 to -9 range. Expect those stats to improve here. |
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01-22-20 | 76ers v. Raptors UNDER 218.5 | Top | 95-107 | Win | 100 | 27 h 57 m | Show |
I'm playing on Philadelphia/Toronto UNDER the total. Points haven't come easily when these two "playoff rivals" have renewed acquaintances this season. While the game at Philly finished with 214, the game here at Toronto produced only 197 points. I expect to see more playoff-like intensity at the defensive end of the floor on Wednesday. Both teams have played considerably lower scoring games within their division overall. The Raptors have seen their division games average 214.8 while Philly divisional games have averaged just 207. The 76ers recently scored just 90 at New York, holding the Knicks to 89. While they were favored for that one, they've been underdogs just twice in the past couple of weeks. Those games finished with scores of 196 and 200, each staying comfortably below the number. Look for this one to do the same. |
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01-22-20 | Thunder v. Magic -1 | Top | 120-114 | Loss | -115 | 27 h 44 m | Show |
I'm playing on ORLANDO. The Thunder met when these teams met at OKC earlier. However, playing on their homecourt, I expect the revenge-minded Magic to have the edge here. The Magic are 8-3 ATS in 2020. Listed as small favorites, they're 13-7-1 ATS (17-4 SU) when laying points. The Thunders are 11-10 on the road. Off a win against former teammate Westbrook and the Rockets, they could easily be ripe for a letdown. Visting teams average a mere 99.8 ppg here. Expect the Magic, currently 7th in the East, to come ready to play, improving to 7-2 ATS their last nine, when off a divisional road win. |
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01-22-20 | Syracuse v. Notre Dame -4 | Top | 84-82 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
I'm playing on NOTRE DAME. The Irish are 9-1 SU when laying points but only 4-5-1 at the betting window. Here, however, they're working with a small enough number that a SU victory will also result in an ATS win. I expect that to be the case. Note that the Irish are 1-0 ATS As home favorites of six or less. The Irish have played four straight games as underdogs, a stretch which started with a game at Syracuse, against these same Orange. Notre Dame won that game, which has helped in keeping this number a little lower than it could have been, as many will be considering the revenge angle. However, in my opinion, if the Orange couldn't beat them at home, they're not going to be able to do so on the road. Cuse has been outscored 74.5 to 74.3 on the road. Notre Dame, on the other hand, outscores visiting teams by a 78.7 to 61.8 average score, here at home. Off b2b losses, the Irish bounced back to win at GT last time out. However, with a road game at FSU up next, they know they can't afford to let up. They're 3-0 SU/ATS after having lost two of their previous three games. Expect them to improve on those stats this evening. |
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01-21-20 | Air Force v. Utah State OVER 146 | Top | 47-72 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 29 m | Show |
I'm playing on Air Force / Utah State OVER the total. Playing at home on 1/7, the Falcons limited the Aggies to a mere 60 points. Air Force won that game 79-60. I think its safe to say that we can expect an entirely different result tonight. The Aggies average a whopping 87.8 ppg at home, connecting on a healthy 47.5% of their field goals here. They'll put up a big number here. The Falcons aren't just going to go away though. They may not get 79 again but they shouldn't be that far off. This is team which averages 76.7 ppg on the strength of 47.6% field goal shooting. Air Force has allowed 78 points in back-to-back games while Utah State has scored 80 or more in b2b games. The OVER is 3-0 when the Aggies were off a game as a road favorite and 3-1 the past four times that they attempted to avenge a road loss, in a game where they were favored. Expect plenty of offensive fireworks. |
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01-21-20 | Texas A&M v. Missouri -8.5 | Top | 66-64 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 55 m | Show |
I'm playing on MISSOURI. The Aggies are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Off back-to-back road losses, the Tigers are going to be in an angry mood. They already lost two in a row once in 2020 and they responded with a 16-point blowout win over Florida in their next game. The Tigers outscore visiting teams by a 73.7 to 55.4 margin at home. The Aggies get outscored by a 61.6 to 58.2 average score on the road. Missouri has covered six of nine at home (7-2 SU) including a 1-0 SU/ATS mark as home favorites in the -6.5 to 9 range. While the Aggies are 5-48 SU over the years, when listed as road underdogs in the 6.5 to 12 range, the Tigers are 58-10 sU as home favorites in the same range. I absolutely expect them to improve on those numbers here, providing us the ATS victory along the way. |
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01-21-20 | Butler v. Villanova -4.5 | Top | 61-76 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
I'm playing on VILLANOVA. While I lost with the Wildcats in their victory over UConn (they won, just not by enough) I'm comfortable coming back with them here. The Bulldogs are an ugly 9-17 ATS (8-19 SU) on the road the past 2+ seasons. They just lost by eight at home to Seton Hall and followed it up with a double-digit loss at Depaul. This is no place to "get healthy." Nova has dominated this rivalry including wins of 75-54 and 87-68 its last two as a host. The Wildcats are 3-0 SU/ATS their last three as a home favorite of six or less. They're also 7-3 ATS (9-1 SU) the past 10 times that they were off a SU home win but non-cover, 15-6 ATS (19-2 SU) the past 21 times that they were off a SU win but non-cover overall. Expect them to improve on those stats here. |
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01-20-20 | Spurs v. Suns -4.5 | Top | 120-118 | Loss | -108 | 25 h 40 m | Show |
I'm playing on PHOENIX. The Spurs are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. While they're off a hard-fought win yesterday afternoon, the Suns were resting, waiting for them. Yesterday's win was a battle the entire way and it came against a Miami team which had recently defeated them. This time, however, its the Spurs' opponent which will be playing with "revenge." Indeed, the Suns haven't forgotten that the Spurs beat them by two points in each of the last two meetings. This season's previous game came in mid-December, the Spurs winning 121-119 in OT. Those are the ones you don't forget and you can be sure the Suns have had this one circled. That 2-point loss on 12/14 was part of an 8-game losing streak for the streaky Suns. They're playing better now though. In fact, they've won four of their past five including an upset win at Boston last time out. Not only are the Suns 5-1 ATS when off an upset victory, they're 17-6-1 ATS when attempting to avenge a loss where the opposing team scored 110 or more. Schedule in their favor and knowing that they're going to have to face these same Spurs in a few days, at San Antonio, look for the revenge-minded Suns to take care of business tonight. |
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01-20-20 | Texas v. West Virginia OVER 127.5 | Top | 59-97 | Win | 100 | 23 h 39 m | Show |
I'm playing on Texas/WVU OVER the total. Last season's games both had O/U lines in the low 140s. We're working with a considerably lower number here. I feel that it'll prove to be too low. Though both teams are indeed pretty stingy, both have seen the OVER go 5-3 the past 2+ seasons, when facing a team which allows 64 or fewer points, through the first 15 games of the season. While the Longhorns have been involved in a few low-scoring games of last, the same cannot really be said of the Mountaineers. Not their last couple, at least. They gave up 84 in a loss last time out and scored 81 in a win in their previous game. Overall, the Mountaineers score an average of 79 points at home, while connecting on 47% of their field goals. Visiting teams have averaged 60.4. I think the Mountaineers at least come close to their average but I don't think the Longhorns will just go away. Look for this one to prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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01-19-20 | Pacers v. Nuggets UNDER 212.5 | Top | 115-107 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
I'm playing on Indiana/Denver UNDER the total. These teams played a high-scoring game when they met at Indiana, on 1/2. However, with this evening's rematch being played at Denver, I'm expecting a considerably lower-scoring game. Note that we're getting several extra points (line value) to work with on this O/U line than we were for that one. The Pacers don't score as many points on the road as they do at home. When playing away from Indiana, they manage a modest 107.8 ppg. That number comes at venues that aren't as difficult to score at as this one though. Denver, which has hosted a lot of teams which average more points than Indiana, allows an average of only 103.1 ppg here. Note that the Pacers have seen the UNDER go 7-3 the past 10 times that they attempted to avenge a loss where the opponent had scored 110 or more points. Last year's game here had an O/U line of 214 and finished with a final score of 102-100. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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01-19-20 | Davidson -8.5 v. Fordham | Top | 74-62 | Win | 100 | 4 h 43 m | Show |
I'm playing on DAVIDSON. After winning with the Wildcats several times earlier, they've cost me lately. I'm going to give them another chance today, however, as this is a team which they should hammer. While the points might look tempting, consider that Fordam is 2-5 ATS (1-6 SU) the past seven times it was a home underdog in the +6.5 to +9.5 range. Going back further finds it at just 10-23-1 ATS (4-30 SU!) in that situation. Indeed, being a home underdog in this range has not been kind to the Rams. A look at recent meetings shows that Davidson has won by 25, 10, 24, 30 and 18. All double-digit wins. Expect another this afternoon. |
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01-18-20 | BYU v. Gonzaga UNDER 154.5 | Top | 69-92 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 30 m | Show |
I'm playing on BYU/Gonzaga UNDER the total. This is a very high O/U line and I believe it'll prove to be too high. Note that the UNDER is aprofitable 15-5 the last 20 times that these teams faced each other, 5-2 since 2017. While they've had some success here in the past, the Cougars are going to have some trouble scoring tonight, as they're without leading scorer (and rebounder) Yoeli Childs. Over their past three games, the Bulldogs have allowed 54, 62 and 50 points. The last time that the Cougars faced a team of this calibre, was at the Maui Invitational, when they faced Kansas. They lost 71-56. Without Childs, the Cougars know they're going to need to play their best defensive game to have a chance. This is a team which rang in the new year by allowing 38 points. Three of Gonzaga's last four games have produced less than 150. I believe that this one will too. |
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01-18-20 | Cavs v. Bulls -6.5 | Top | 116-118 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
I'm playing on CHICAGO. While both teams played last night, I expect the Bulls' homecourt advantage to prove significant in this one. Note that Cleveland's game was arguably more taxing than Chicago's last night as the Cavs were close the entire way. The fact that they lost at Cleveland earlier (and that they know they'll play again at Clev. in a week) will help to provide some added motivation. The Bulls are actually 4-2 SU/ATS when playing the second of b2b games. Meanwhile, this will be the third time that the Cavs played the second of b2b games already in 2020. The first two instances resulted in losses of 15 and 25 points. Expect a blowout. |
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01-18-20 | Oakland v. Wisc-Milwaukee | Top | 68-73 | Win | 100 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. This may not be the most exciting matchup on the Saturday board but that doesn't mean that it isn't one of the strongest. While Oakland has had success here of late, Milwaukee opened as the favorite for a reason. While they came up short, the Panthers scored 84 points last time out. In their previous game, the Panthers scored 87. They've scored 70 or more in four of their past five and they average 73.3 ppg on the season. Thats significant as Oakland is 0-7 on the season when it allows 72 or more points. Overall, the Golden Grizzlies have won just three of their past 13 games. They have yet to defeat a team which currently ranks better than 194th in the "KenPom" rankings. Of course, its tough to win games when you average only 64.3 ppg. That ranks 323rd in the country! They don't shoot well at all from outside and they don't help themselves by making just 68% of their free throws. Even off a loss, Milwaukee, which has faced the likes of Wisconsin and Kansas, has won three of four. Playing at home, I expect the Panthers to be able to push/dictate the tempo, score 70+ points and ultimately, for the offensively-challenged Grizzlies to be unable to keep up. |
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01-17-20 | Hawks v. Spurs OVER 230.5 | Top | 121-120 | Win | 100 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
I'm playing on Atlanta/SA OVER the total. I successfully played on the Hawks to go 'over' the number in their last game and I expect another high-scoring affair tonight. With their 123-110 win over the Suns, the OVER is now 13-9 in Altanta road games and 10-5 when they faced a team from the West. As for the Spurs, they've seen the OVER go 12-4 when facing a team from the East and 12-7-3 at home. That includes a 4-1 OVER mark when they were listed as home favorites in the -6.5 to -12 range. Off a 6-point loss against the Heat, its also worth noting that the OVER is a perfect 7-0, with one push, when the Spurs were off a loss of six or fewer points. Overall, the OVER is 14-6-1 when the Spurs were off a loss. Expect those stats to improve tonight. |
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01-17-20 | Siena v. Canisius | Top | 63-73 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
I'm playing on SIENA. The Golden Griffins are likely going to be a popular play here. After all, they lost by just one at Siena earlier and they've had success against the Saints at this venue. That said, I personally believe the Saints are the stronger team and I expect them to demonstrate that fact this evening. Siena lost by 12 at Manhattan last time out, a game they were trailing by 17 at halftime. Thats noteworthy as the Saints are a perfect 5-0 SU the past 2+ seasons, after trailing by 15 or more at halftime of their previous game. The Saints are scoring 72.9 ppg overall this season and 71 ppg in conference action. The Golden Griffins, on the other hand, are averaging just 63.6 ppg in conference play, connecting on 40.1 % of their field goals. Opposing conf. teams are hitting 46.4% of theirs. Look for Siena's superior offense to prove the difference, as the Saints break out the broom and sweep the season series. |
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01-16-20 | Oregon State v. Washington -4 | Top | 56-64 | Win | 100 | 27 h 5 m | Show |
I'm playing on WASHINGTON. The Beavers are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Off back-to-back losses, the Huskies are going to be in an angry mood. Note that both losses came on the road. The last time that the Huskies lost two in a row? Laying -4 points, they bounced back and crushed USC by a 72-40 score. Including that result, they're 5-1 (4-1 ATS) the past six times that they were off b2b losses. While they did upset Arizona last time out, the Beavers have dropped two of their last three on the road. They're just 7-14 ATS the past 2+ seasons, when playing a game with an O/U line in the 130s. Going back further reveals that they're also 7-14 ATS when off a double-digit win as an underdog. The Huskies took both meetings last season. Look for them to bounce back and improve to 15-5 their last 20 games in January, covering the small number along the way. |
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01-16-20 | Jazz v. Pelicans UNDER 227 | Top | 132-138 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 18 m | Show |
I'm playing on Utah/NO UNDER the total. The big news for tonight's game was supposed to be that Zion Williamson would finallly make his debut. However, thats been pushed back; he's now expected to return to the court on Jan. 22nd. As both teams have been involved in some high-scoring games of late, including one against each other here a little over a week ago, we're working with a generously high O/U number. I believe it'll prove to be too high. Consider that the game here on Jan 6th had an O/U line of 221.5. While the Pelicans did put up a big number in that one, the Jazz are still a very capable defensive team. They allow 105.8 ppg, the seventh stingiest mark in the league. Opposing teams connect on just 44.3% of their field goals against Utah, the sixth best mark in the league. They're 8th best at defending the three. They've won 10 straight and seven of their last nine opponents have scored 107 or less. Four of those didn't even hit the 100 mark. Note that the UNDER is 15-7 over the years when the Jazz had won 10 straight, 2-0 the past couple of seasons. While one can't call the Pelicans "stingy," they have seen the UNDER go 6-3 when listed as home underdogs. Even factoring in the high-scoring game against the Jazz here recently, the UNDER is 7-3 when they faced a Northwest division opponent. Also, the UNDER is 8-5 when they played with "same season revenge." There was some controversy with the way the last game ended and that should lead to a little extra defensive intensity in this one. Look for the final combined score to fall beneath the generously high number. |
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01-15-20 | Nets v. 76ers -7.5 | Top | 106-117 | Win | 100 | 22 h 52 m | Show |
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. The Nets are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Off back-to-back losses, the 76ers are going to be in an angry mood. Not that they need any but additional motivation but the 76ers also haven't forgotten that the Nets beat them by 20 points, back in mid-December. The last time that these teams met here, the 76ers were favored by -9.5 points and won by 22. The Nets' previous visit here also resulted in a 22-point Philly win. While both those were playoff games, I expect another double-digit win for the 76ers here. Not only do they have the venue in their favor but they've got the schedule working for them. Whie the 76ers had yesterday off, the Nets are playing their second game in two days and their third in the past four. Payback time. |
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01-15-20 | Creighton v. Georgetown -1 | Top | 80-83 | Win | 100 | 22 h 55 m | Show |
I'm playing on GEORGETOWN. Creighton checks in with the higher ranking but I believe that Georgetown opened as the slight favorite for good reason. Having lost three of their last four, the Hoyas are going to be highly motivated. Note that all three of those losses came on the road. Also, note that they're 9-2 ATS the past couple of seasons, after having dropped three of their previous four. While Creighton gets outscored by a 71.6 to 64.4 margin on the road, Georgetown is outscoring teams by a 82.4 to 70.6 average score here at home. Creighton may have scored the minor upset at Xavier but it is still just 8-15 ATS the past couple of seasons, as a road underdog or pick'em. During that span, the Bluejays are also only 4-8 ATS when off a double-digit conference win. The Bluejays have had their way in this series of late but that changes Wednesday. Look for the hungry Hoyas to get some payback. |
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01-14-20 | Mavs v. Warriors +8 | Top | 124-97 | Loss | -101 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE. The Mavs hammered the Warriors a couple of times back in November and December. I expect a much better effort from the defending Western Conf. champs tonight though. Porzingis practiced yesterday. However, in addition to his knee, he isn't feeling well with an illness. With the Mavs also playing tomorrow night, my hunch is that he won't go tonight. Either way, I expect the Warriors to be ready. The Warriors are 14-7 ATS when attempting to avenge a game where the opponent scored 100 or more. They're 8-3 ATS when attempting to avenge a double-digit loss. They're also 5-1 ATS when playing with double-revenge. While the Mavs play again tomorrow, the Warriors have tomorrow off. Expect them to leave it all on the floor, en route to AT LEAST the cover. |
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01-14-20 | TCU v. West Virginia OVER 127.5 | Top | 49-81 | Win | 100 | 23 h 20 m | Show |
I'm playing on TCU/WVU OVER the total. The last time that these teams met, the O/U line was 148.5. They combined for 200 points! We're working with a much lower number here and I believe it'll prove to be too low. Sure, that 200-point game did go to triple-OT. However, the previous meeting also produced 165 points (O/U line of 145) and all of those came in regulation. The last four meetings have all produced a minimum of 148. This season, TCU games are averaging 131.9 points. WVU games are averaging 131.4 overall. However, Mountaineer home games are averaging a much higher 140.7. As of this writing, WVU is favored by eight or 8.5 points. Thats noteworthy as the OVER is 10-4 the past 2+ seasons when the Mountaineers were home favorites in the -6.5 to -12 range, 2-0 already this season. Expect those stats to improve Tuesday evening. |
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01-14-20 | Suns v. Hawks OVER 225 | Top | 110-123 | Win | 100 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
I'm playing on Phoenix/Atlanta OVER the total. When these teams met earlier this season, the O/U line was 229.5. They combined for 240 points. Tonight, we're working with a lower O/U number, which I feel is providing us with excellent value. Both of last season's games finished with a minimum of 230. This is the Suns' third straight game against a team from the Eastern Conference. Thats noteworthy as the OVER is 4-0 on the season, when they were off b2b games against non-conference foes. While those last two games did finish below the number, the OVER is still 7-4 when Phoenix faced a team from the East. With the Suns having won those games, note that the OVER is 9-4 the past couple of seasons, when they were off b2b wins. As for the Hawks, they've seen the OVER go 9-5 when facing a team from the West. The OVER is also 17-7 when the Hawks had lost five, or six, of their previous seven. Expect another high-scoring affair. |
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01-13-20 | Hornets v. Blazers -9.5 | Top | 112-115 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
I'm playing on PORTLAND. The Blazers beat the Hornets by double-digits in both last season's meetings. The game here at Portland resulted in a 127-96 blowout, the Blazers taking a 70-49 lead into the break. Schedule in their favor, I expect another blowout tonight. While the Blazers are rested, the Hornets are playing their second game in the past two days and third in the past four. The Blazers are 3-1-1 ATS (5-0 SU) as home favorites in the -6.5 to -12 range. Expect them to improve on those stats with a double-digit win. |
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01-12-20 | Hawks +7.5 v. Nets | Top | 86-108 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
I'm playing on ATLANTA. Off three straight losses and playing with "double-revenge," I expect the Hawks to be a highly motivated team today. Note that they lost by 10 last time but that all five of their previous games (2 W, 3 L) were decided by single-digits. Also, note that they're 4-1 ATS the past five times that they were off an upset loss, by double-digits, in a game where they were favored. The Nets are only 7-12 ATS as favroites overall, 4-8 ATS as home favorites. They're also only 2-8 ATS after scoring 115 or more in their previous game. Grab the points. |
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01-11-20 | Bucks v. Blazers +5 | Top | 122-101 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
I'm playing on PORTLAND. The Bucks won big last night but I expect them to face a much tougher task here. Though I certainly won't count on it, with this being the second of b2b games, its possible that Giannis won't play, as he's been dealing with a back issue. Either way, I expect the rested Blazers to be ready for a big game. While the role hasn't been kind to them of late, the Blazers are still a healthy 9-5-2 ATS the past 16 times that they were listed as home underdogs. That includes a 118-103 victory over the Bucks here last season. During that span, the Blazers are also a perfect 10-0 SU (7-3 ATS) when off a double-digit loss against a division opponent. Grab the points but don't be surprised when Portland steps up and wins this one outright. |
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01-11-20 | Pelicans v. Celtics -9 | Top | 105-140 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
I'm playing on BOSTON. The Pelicans are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. While Boston had last night off, New Orleans beat the Knicks, at MSG. In addition to playing the second of b2b games, the Pelicans will be playing their third game in the past four days. In fact, this marks their sixth game in the past nine days. That schedule will catch up to them against a very hungry Boston team tonight. The Celtics are a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS when off a division loss. Over the past couple of seasons, they're a profitable 14-5 ATS after having failed to cover the spread in three or more consecutive games. They beat the Pelicans by double-digits in both last season's meetings and I fully expect for them to do so again this evening. Boston rolls. |
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01-10-20 | Pelicans v. Knicks +4 | Top | 123-111 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 14 m | Show |
I'm playing on NY. I like how this one sets up for the Knicks. Off a winless road trip, they're going to be hungry. They had yesterday off and they also have tomorrow off. Thats not the case for the Pelicans, as they have a big game at Boston tomorrow. Off some recent wins, they may not be as hungry as their hosts, either. The home team won both games last season. Tonight, the Pelicans will be without Jrue Holiday. I'll take the points but I like NY to score the upset. |
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01-10-20 | Northern Kentucky v. Illinois-Chicago OVER 135 | Top | 68-52 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
I'm playing on Northern Kentucky / Illinois-Chicago OVER the total. The Norse have been profitable for "under" bettors on the road this season. However, their last one went 'over,' as they scored 75 at Oakland. I expect this evening's game to do the same. The Flames have seen their last five games average 139.2 points. Each of their last three home games has produced at least 134. Last season's game here finished with 136 but that one had a much higher O/U line (146.5) than what we're working with here. Going back further finds that the last six meetings have all had O/U lines of at least 145. With this one in the 130s, note that the Flames have seen the OVER go 8-3 the past couple of seasons, when playing a game with an O/U line in the 130s. Both teams come in hoping to win this one and I expect both to keep on scoring the whole way. Look for the final combined score to finish above the low number. |
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01-09-20 | St. Peter's v. Siena -7.5 | Top | 58-61 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 22 m | Show |
I'm playing on SIENA. The Saints have been winning and playing well. Just not covering. I expect that to change tonight. Last time out, the Saints lost at Rider. However, they'd won their previous four. One of those games even got featured on SportsCenter's "Bad Beats," as the final meaningless Holy Cross basket came in the final seconds causing the Saints to win by 12, as 13-point favorites. Those recent ATS losses have worked in our favor though, in terms of line value, as the Saints could easily be laying double-digits for this matchup. Homecourt has meant a lot in this series in recent seasons; Siena has beaten St. Peter's four straight times here at Times Union Center. In last year's meeting here, the Saints were laying -7 and won by 10. Overall, the Saints have won their last six home games, outscoring teams by an average of 79.5 to 70.3. Led by their trio of seiniors (Jalen Pickett, Manny Camper and Elijah Burns) look for the Saints to continue their homecourt dominance of the Peacocks, this time, picking up the cover along the way. |
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01-08-20 | Raptors v. Hornets OVER 207.5 | Top | 112-110 | Win | 100 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
I'm playing on Toronto/Charlotte OVER the total. Off a low-scoring loss against Portland last night, the Raptors have now seen five of their last six games fall below the total. I successfully played on the 'over' in the lone one of those which topped the number and I believe this will prove to be another excellent spot to do so. The recent low-scoring results have worked in our favor by providing us with quite a low O/U number, the lowest on the Wed. NBA board. This season's earlier meeting had an O/U line of 214 and finished with 228. The previous three meetings between these teams finished with 224, 229 and 233 points. Unlike Toronto, the Hornets have been primarily involved in high-scoring games lately. Their last three all finished above the total, producing combined scores of 219, 243 and 215. Six of their last eight have finished above the number. On the season, games here are averaging 218.5 points. The last time that the champs played a road game, after having played the previous day, the O/U line was 208 and their game (at Indiana) finished with 235. Look for this one to also prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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01-08-20 | Davidson +3 v. Rhode Island | Top | 58-69 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
I'm playing on DAVIDSON. Both these teams are seeking their first conference win. The Rams may be the favorite but I firmly believe that the Wildcats are the superior team. Keep in mind that Davidson essentially returned everyone from last year's team. That same team handled Rhode Island with relative ease. The Wildcats beat the Rams by 15, at Davidson. Then, they beat them by nine, here at Rhode Island. Yes, Davidson has dealt with some injury issues but it has also played an extremely tough schedule. Off b2b losses, like their hosts, the Cats are going to be highly motivated. Note that Davidson is perfect (2-0 SU/ATS) the past couple of seasons, when coming off b2b road losses. Over the years, Davidson is a dominant 46-16 SU when off a conference road loss. As for the Rams, they're just 2-6 ATS in the favorite role this season. They were favored in each of their last two games and lost both outright. While I'm happy to grab the points, I expect an outright win for the visitors. |
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01-07-20 | Kings +6 v. Suns | Top | 114-103 | Win | 100 | 14 h 45 m | Show |
I'm playing on SACRAMENTO. This will be the fourth meeting between these teams already this season. On 10/23, I was on the Suns (Oct. GOM) when they hammered the Kings here. I successfully backed Sacramento in the next meeting, a 4-point win on 11/19. I didn't play the most recent game but it was also very close, a 2-point Phoenix win on 12/28. So, thats back-to-back meetings which have been decided by four or less. With the Kings looking to avenge that loss, I expect another close one tonight. Yes, the Kings played last night. Thats worked in our favor though, as we're getting a little extra line value because of it. Last night's game wasn't exactly taxing though as the Kings won big. (By the end of the third, they were up by 26.) The last time that the Kings played the second of b2b games, they covered at Denver, losing by five. The time before that? A 4-point loss. Before that? An outright win at Houston by a point! So, one can see that they haven't exactly been bothered by playing two games in two days. Expect them to give their hosts all they can handle here, improving to 6-1 ATS when attempting to avenge a same season loss. |
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01-06-20 | Thunder v. 76ers -6 | Top | 113-120 | Win | 100 | 27 h 38 m | Show |
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. While they've been on a nice roll, tonight, the Thunder are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. After dropping all four games on their road trip, the 76ers return home in a very angry mood. The fact that the Thunder beat them at OKC earlier (and upset the 76ers here last year) will only intensify that anger. While they've had their issues on the road, the 76ers are a dominant 16-2 here at home. Opposing teams score a mere 101.5 ppg here. Meanwhile, the Thunder score only 103.8 ppg on the road. While OKC hits 44.4% of its fg's on the road, the 76ers hit 47.6% of theirs, here at home. Expect the "hungrier" team to win this one by double-digits. |
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01-05-20 | VCU -5.5 v. George Mason | Top | 72-59 | Win | 100 | 14 h 13 m | Show |
I'm playing on VCU. The Rams have had a tough run at the betting window, which has worked in our favor by keeping the line reasonably low. They've now failed to cover the spread in eight of their last nine games, a streak dating back to 11/25. I successfully played on them in the lone ATS win though (while avoiding them in all 8 losses) and I feel that this will be another strong spot to back them. If you looked at those games, you'd see that they were extremely close to covering in the majority of them. Last time out, the Rams won by 18 while laying 19. Previously, some of the other ATS losses included: laying -5.5, they won by five. Laying -11,5, they won by 10. Laying -13.5, they won by 12. They were 2-point underdogs (facing Purdue and Tennessee) in each of the two games before those three. Both resulted in 3-point losses. This afternoon's number is relatively small though. This is a George Mason team that the Rams beat by 16 and 35 points last season. Expect another double-digit win. |
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01-04-20 | Raptors v. Nets OVER 217 | Top | 121-102 | Win | 100 | 25 h 24 m | Show |
I'm playing on Brooklyn/Toronto OVER the total. After getting held to a mere 76 points at Miami on Thursday, the champs are going to be licking their chops to go against the somewhat defensively-challenged Nets. Brooklyn has allowed 122 and 123 in its past two games. On the season, the Nets allow an average of 111.7. The Nets can score themselves though, as they average 110.6 ppg. Toronto's last visit here resulted in a 115-105 win for the Raptors. That game had an O/U line of 228.5 though. Here, we're working with a considerably lower number. The last two times that the Raptors were kept to single digits, they responded in their next game by scoring 110 and 117. The last time that they were held to 90 or less, they responded by scoring 130 in their next game. Look for this one to prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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01-04-20 | Virginia Tech v. Virginia -7.5 | Top | 39-65 | Win | 100 | 16 h 5 m | Show |
I'm playing on VIRGINIA. While its been a tough start at the betting window, I believe that a date vs. the instate rival Hokies will bring out the best in the Cavaliers. The last time that these teams met here, the Cavs were laying -7.5 points. They were already up 44-22 by the break and won by a score of 82-59. While the Hokies allowed a mere 37 points last time out, that was against lowly MD-East Shore. Note that they're just 2-7 ATS the past nine times that they allowed 50 or fewer points in their previous game, 0-2 ATS already this season. The Cavs were a dominant 16-1 SU and 14-3 ATS the past two Januarys. Expect them to improve on those stats as they start the new year with another win and cover. |
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01-03-20 | UCF v. Houston -9.5 | Top | 63-78 | Win | 100 | 3 h 55 m | Show |
I'm playing on HOUSTON. I believe that we can expect the Cougars to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way in this one. Thats because they haven't forgotten that the Knights came in here last season, when Houston had a 27-1 record (best in the nation) and the longest home winning streak in the country, and upset the Cougars. Some called it the biggest win in UCF history. The Knights were helped considerbly by a double-double from Tacko Fall in that game. As you probably know, he's since moved on. Off b2b losses, the Knights just lost by 16 against Temple. Houston, on the other hand, is rolling. The Cougars are 4-0 SU/ATS their past four. Three of those were on the road; the lone home game saw them win by 20 as an -11.5 point favorite. Motivated by last year's loss, expect the Cougars to keep on rolling for another day, pulling away for a one-sided blowout win. |
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01-02-20 | Grizzlies v. Kings -4 | Top | 123-128 | Win | 100 | 16 h 53 m | Show |
I'm playing on SACRAMENTO. The Kings are desperate for a win and the Grizzlies represent the perfect opponent. The Grizzlies used to be known for their defense but thats no longer they case. They're allowing 116.2 ppg this season. The Kings are considerably more stingy. They allow 108.3 ppg. Here at home, that number dips to just 106. While they lost earlier at Memphis, the Kings beat the Grizzlies both times, here at Sacramento, last season. Yes, the Grizzlies won their last game. However, that was at home, against Charlotte. Note that they're 2-4 ATS off a home win. The Kings are 4-1 ATS when attempting to avenge an earlier (same season) loss. Losers of eight straight, over the years, they've gone 10-4-1 ATS after losing their previous eight. Expect them to play with desperation, bouncing back with a badly needed win and cover. |
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01-02-20 | Oregon v. Colorado +1.5 | Top | 65-74 | Win | 100 | 15 h 44 m | Show |
I'm playing on COLORADO. The Ducks are indeed a very strong team and they've been playing well. However, in my opinion, the same can be said of the Buffaloes. They've won four straight and covered the last two of those. Last time out, they tied a school record with 17 3-pointers. Seven players scored in double-digits, the first time thats happened in more than five years. Also, the Buffs dished out 26 assists, their most in years. Keep in mind that Colorado returned nearly everyone from last year's team. The same group, essentially, which beat the Ducks (again) here last season. The Buffs allow 58.9 ppg at home while the Ducks allow 71.5 ppg on the road. Playing in the thin air (altitude) gives the Buffaloes a big advantage. Note that Oregon has never won here at Boulder and that the Ducks will face the Utes on the road, on Saturday. That Colorado/Utah road trip is always tough, generally considered to be the most difficult in the conference. The Buffs are looking for respect and a win here will get it. Look for them to find their way into the top 25 after scoring the minor upset here. |
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01-01-20 | Connecticut v. Cincinnati -1.5 | Top | 51-67 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
I'm playing on CINCINNATI. I expect homecourt to prove the difference in this one. The Bearcats come in rested and hungry. They're 2-1 ATS (3-0 SU) the past couple of seasons, when playing with seven or more day's rest in between games. The Huskies are just 3-6 ATS the past couple of seasons as road underdogs of six or fewer points and that includes a 1-8 SU record. While UConn has won three straight, those games came against the likes of St. Peters, New Hampshire and NJ Tech. Its also worth noting that the Huskies are just 1-5 SU/ATS the past six times that they'd won their previous three. Expect the Bearcats to take this one, covering the small number along the way. |
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12-31-19 | Butler v. St. John's +4.5 | Top | 60-58 | Win | 100 | 8 h 33 m | Show |
I'm playing on ST. JOHN'S. These teams split a pair of meetings last season. Favored by 4.5 points, the Bullogs won by nine, on their home floor. The Red Storm returned the favor with a 4-point home win, as a 4-point favorite. Tonight, however, the Red Storm are getting points, rather than laying them. While I respect Butler, I feel thats providing us with excellent value. Keep in mind that St. John's knocked off Arizona, on the road, last time out. (An outright win as a double-digit underdog.) This is a team which is playing its best and which hasn't lost in weeks. The Bulldogs are 1-3 ATS the past four times that they were road favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range. During the same span, the Red Storm were 3-1 ATS as home underdogs in the 3.5 to 6 range. They're 2-0 ATS the past couple of seasons, when off a upset win, as a double-digit underdog. Expect AT LEAST another cover this evening. |
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12-31-19 | Celtics v. Hornets +8 | Top | 109-92 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 11 m | Show |
I'm playing on CHARLOTTE. The Hornets have been tough at home recently. Playing with double-revenge, I expect their best effort on New Year's Eve. Since the Celtics' last visit, on 11/9, the Hornets have played 13 home games. While the Hornets only won five of those 13 games, they were very competitive in nearly every one of them. In fact, only one of those 13 home games resulted in a loss of greater than seven points. The Hornets are 5-2 ATS after having failed to cover in two or more consec. games and 1-0 ATS after having failed to cover their previous three. Expect them to improve on those stats this evening. |
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12-30-19 | Suns v. Blazers -4 | Top | 122-116 | Loss | -108 | 29 h 13 m | Show |
I'm playing on PORTLAND. The Suns are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Off three straight losses and with their next five on the road, the Blazers know they absolutely need to take care of business here. The Suns eked out a road win last time out. However, they're still 6-8 away from Phoenix and they're also 1-5 SU/ATS the past six times that they were off a road win of three or fewer points. The Blazers have beaten the Suns 11 straight times. They've beaten the Suns six straight times here at Portland, the past five of those all coming by a minimum of seven points. A closer look at those past five meetings here at Portland finds that the Blazers were laying double-digits for all five games. We're being asked to lay a much lower line here and I feel thats providing excellent value. Expect the Blazers to continue their dominance in the series, covering the small number along the way. |
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12-30-19 | Davidson -1 v. Vanderbilt | Top | 71-76 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 23 m | Show |
I'm playing on DAVIDSON. I've fared very well in picking my spots with the Wildcats and I feel that this is another team that they match up very well against. Vanderbilt was 9-23 last season, 0-18 within its conference. The Commodores entered this season with just 10 eligible scholarship players. One of them, senior forward Clevon Brown, is out. Another (Obinna) is questionable. The Wildcats, who are playing their best basketball of the season with three consecutive SU/ATS wins, are 5-1 SU/ATS the past six times that they were a road favorite (or pick'em) of three or less. Davidson is a perfect 10-0 SU the past 10 times that it had scored 25 or less in the first half of its previous game. Expect a road win. |
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12-29-19 | Loyola Maryland v. VCU -15.5 | Top | 51-85 | Win | 100 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
I'm playing on VCU. The Rams have had a tough run at the betting window. They've now failed to cover the spread in seven straight games, a streak dating back to 11/25. If you looked at those games, however, you'd see that they were extremely close to covering in the majority of them. Last time out, the Rams lost by 10, as 5-point underdogs against Wichita State. That should have them in an angry mood here. Prior to that, laying -5.5, they won by five. Laying -11,5, they won by 10. Laying -13.5, they won by 12. They were 2-point underdogs (facing Purdue and Tennessee) in each of the two games before those three. Both resulted in 3-point losses. Enough is enough. The Rams are stepping down in class here and they're going to be ready to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way. The Greyhounds have been on a nice roll but they haven't faced a defense like this one; the Rams force opposing teams to commit turnovers on 27.7% of their plays. Thats fourth best in the country. Expect a determined effort to lead to a blowout. |
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12-28-19 | Raptors v. Celtics UNDER 216.5 | Top | 113-97 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
I'm playing on Toronto/Boston UNDER the total. With these teams having just met, on Christmas Day, Boston winning at Toronto, I expect there to be some added defensive intensity which carries over. Note the UNDER is 11-2 the past 13 times that Raptors were off a divisional loss. The 12/25 game did finish above the total (which has helped in providing a higher O/U line here) but the game actually played at mostly a relatively methodical pace, which is what the Celtics want. Both teams just had a much higher shooting percentage than they normally do. Boston, which normally connects at a 45.8% rate, hit 50% of its field goals and was 42.4% from beyond the arc. Toronto, which averages 45.1% of its field goals, hit at a 47.5% rate. Expect those numbers to come back down to a more normal level here. In turn, expect the UNDER to improve to 14-6 the past 20 times that the Raptors were off two or more consecutive losses. |
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12-28-19 | Florida International v. Minnesota UNDER 150.5 | Top | 62-89 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 14 m | Show |
I'm playing on Minnesota/FIU UNDER the total. I believe that this total is generously high. The Gophers, who held OSU to 66 points last time out, will be without starting guard Payton Willis. That takes away from their offense. The Gophers have faced some quality teams of late including #3 Ohio State. Yet, they've allowed 73 or fewer points in every single game, an average of 64.8. FIU arguably hasn't faced a defense this good. The Panthers have been underdogs twice and both those games fell below the total. Going back further finds the UNDER at 5-1 the past six times they were getting points, 12-6 the past 18. Expect those stats to improve this afternoon. |
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12-27-19 | Bucks v. Hawks +11.5 | Top | 112-86 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
I'm playing on ATLANTA. The Hawks have already played the Bucks tough in both meetings. Milwaukee won each game by single digits. Playing at home and with double-revenge, I expect the Hawks to give the Bucks all they can handle once again. I'm well aware that the Bucks, who lost on Christmas Day, have fared well when coming off a loss. Thats not always the case though and a Christmas Day game is unique. Did you know that Milwaukee is 0-5 ATS the past five times that it was off a game where it was trailing by 20 or more at halftime? This is also arguably the "lowest profile" game/team that the Bucks will have played in a bit. With a game tomorrow, I feel they make lack their usual intensity here. While the Hawks also play tomorrow, they didn't play on Christmas and come in well-rested. They're already 2-0 SU/ATS when playing with three or more day's rest and they're 7-2 ATS their last nine in that situation. Expect the Hawks to improve on those stats here. |
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12-26-19 | Wizards v. Pistons -6 | Top | 102-132 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
I'm playing on DETROIT. The Pistons 7-10 record at home isn't very good. However, its considerably better than Washington's 5-13 mark on the road. Here, the Pistons play with "double-revenge" from a pair of earlier losses. They certainly haven't forgotten that the Wizards hammered them here 10 days ago. Its important to note that the Wizards got 40 points in that game (23 and 17) from Thomas and Bertans and that neither of those players will be available for this one. The Pistons, meanwhile, played without Griffin and Drummond. Its going to be an entirely different game today. The Pistons are going to be desperate. They know they need to snap their skid today, as their next six games come on the road. Expect them to do exactly that, picking up the cover along the way. |
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12-26-19 | Wizards v. Pistons UNDER 231 | Top | 102-132 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
I'm playing on Washington/Detroit UNDER the total. These teams have met twice this season. The first had an O/U line of 225 and finished with 214. The more recent game was a high-scoring one, the Wizards winning 133-119 here 10 days ago. Its important to note that the Wizards got 40 points in that game (23 and 17) from Thomas and Bertans and that neither of those players will be available for this one. The Pistons, meanwhile, played without Griffin and Drummond. Its going to be an entirely different game today. In that game, the Wizards were 17 of 21 in the first, 100% from beyond the arc as well as 6-for-6 at the line. Needless to say, Detroit coach Casey was not happy, stating after the game: ''You give a team 43 points in the first quarter, that's the game. You let a team see the ball go through the basket, a team that's been struggling. They lost how many straight?'' Casey is going to demand better defense today and with the different players now in/out of the lineup, we can expect a lower-scoring affair. |
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12-25-19 | Pelicans v. Nuggets -10 | Top | 112-100 | Loss | -109 | 34 h 54 m | Show |
I'm playing on DENVER. The Pelicans are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. The Nuggets are one of the top teams in the West and this is their chance to show that to the world. I won with them when they hammered the Lakers the other day and then successfully played against them when they won but failed to cover, at Phoenix. They're back home now though and rested. Instead of facing a revenge-minded team (Suns) its the Nuggets who play with revenge, as the Pelicans beat them earlier. Note that that Nuggets are 9-4-1 ATS (11-3 SU) the past couple of seasons, when attempting to avenge a road loss where they were the favorite. The Pelicans may have won at Portland. However, they're at the end of a trip and they're still just 5-9-2 ATS on the road. They're also 0-4 SU/ATS when off an upset win as a road underdog. Lay the points and expect a blowout. |
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12-25-19 | Houston v. Washington UNDER 139.5 | Top | 75-71 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
I'm playing on Houston/Washington UNDER the total. Both teams advanced to this evening's final courtesy of stingy defense. Houston held Portland to 56 and Georgia Tech to 59. Washington limited Ball State to 64 and Hawaii to 61. Those games came on the heels of holding Seattle to 59. Both teams have been profitable for 'under' bettors overall the past couple of seasons. Washington has seen the 'under' go 48-32, excluding pushes, the past 2+ seasons. During that span, the UNDER is 44-34 in Houston games, a 12-5 'under' mark when those games were played on a neutral affair. Expect a physical, defensive affair. |
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12-25-19 | Celtics v. Raptors UNDER 213 | Top | 118-102 | Loss | -109 | 23 h 29 m | Show |
I'm playing on Boston/Toronto UNDER the total. This season's earlier meeting finished above the total but only barely. The offense started slowly that day as only 43 points were scored in the first quarter. I won't be surprised if the same is true for an early game on Christmas Day. A look at the first quarter of the early game on Christmas Day in recent years shows scores of 42, 50, 45 and 46. Either way, with the season now much further along and these teams within half a game of each other on top of the Atlantic, I expect the defensive intensity to remain high the entire way. While the Raptors have played some high-scoring games recently, those scores are a bit misleading due to going to OT and/or because of the opponent. Note that the UNDER is 2-0 when they were listed as home underdogs and 3-0 when they were off three or more games where they'd allow at least 105 points. The Celtics have seen the UNDER go 9-5 on the road this season and the UNDER is also 3-0 when they played with two day's rest. Look for this one to prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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12-23-19 | Nuggets v. Suns +3.5 | Top | 113-111 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
I'm playing on PHOENIX. While I won with the Nuggets last night, this one favors the Suns. While the Nuggets are playing their third game in four days, the Suns are rested. Even though they've cooled off, they're still within striking distance of the playoffs, something which hasn't been the case at Christmas time in recent years. Playing with double-revenge, they're badly going to want this one. The Nuggets, 2-4 ATS off a road win and 0-3 ATS when playing the second of b2b games, could easily be thinking about their Christmas Day game and/or last night's win at LA. Both this season's meetings were at Denver and the Suns lost one of those by only a point. The last time they hosted the Nuggets (last season) they won outright as nine-point dogs. Playing at home, schedule in their favor, expect them to give the Nuggets all they can handle once again with an excellent shot at the outright win. |
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12-23-19 | Georgia Southern v. Georgia -9.5 | Top | 64-73 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 31 m | Show |
I'm playing on GEORGIA. The Bulldogs just earned a hard-fought double-OT win over a tough SMU team. Had they lost that game, I wouldn't like them in this one. However, having pulled it out, I believe it'll prove to be the type of victory that they can build momentum from. Now, they step down in class, against an instate "rival," and I believe they're ready to deliver a blowout. In addition to SMU, Georgia has faced the likes of Michigan State, Dayton and Ariizona State. The Eagles, who lose Tookie Brown from last year, have faced Auburn and Bradley, as their toughest opponents. They lost those two games by 39 combined points. Even North Dakota beat them by a dozen. Even after failing to cover against the Mustangs, the Bulldogs are a healthy 10-4 ATS in December games the past 2+ seasons. Expect them to improve on those stats in blowout fashion here. |
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12-22-19 | Nuggets +7.5 v. Lakers | Top | 128-104 | Win | 100 | 14 h 0 m | Show |
I'm playing on DENVER. I believe that the Nuggets are visiting at the right time. LA is off four consecutive ATS losses, losing the last two of those outright. This is the Lakers' first game back from an Eastern trip and they could easily be already thinking about their Christmas Day showdown vs. Kawhi and co. As for the Nuggets, since going through a bit of a tough stretch, they're a perfect 5-0 their last five games. That tough stretch included a home loss vs. these same Lakers, a game Denver was favored in. Look for the revenge-minded Nuggets to continue their strong recent play, earning AT LEAST the cover and improving to 22-12-1 ATS the past 35 times that they attempted to avenge a SU loss from a game in which they were favored. |
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12-21-19 | Clippers v. Spurs +6 | Top | 134-109 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
I'm playing on SAN ANTONIO. The Spurs have played the Clippers tough in both this season's meetings. The game at LA resulted in a 6-point win for the Clippers, back on Halloween. A month later, for a game here at San Antonio on 11/29, the Spurs won outright, as 5-point underdogs, a 107-97 "upset" win. While I like their chances of another upset here, I'm also happy to grab the generous points. The Spurs just gave the Rockets all they could handle, losing by only two at Houston. Next, in their most recent game, they hammered the Nets by 13. The Spurs had yesterday off and they also have tomorrow off. This is their final home game before Christmas and they're going to want to make the most of it. On the other hand, the Clippers lost last time out. They also lost their last road game, getting upset by the Bulls, at Chicago. Unlike the Spurs, the Clippers play tomorrow. Additionally, they've got the big Christmas Day showdown coming up against Lebron and the Lakers. While the Spurs are 13-5 ATS the past couple of seasons as home underdogs of six or less, the Clippers are 5-12 ATS when off an upset loss as a home favorite. Grab the points. |
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12-20-19 | Magic v. Blazers -3.5 | Top | 103-118 | Win | 100 | 26 h 51 m | Show |
I'm playing on PORTLAND. I won with the Blazers last time out. Here's an excerpt of what I said at the time: "....They may be last in their division. However, they're still 11-16 and only one good run from getting themselves back in contention. That said, this is a stretch that they need to take advantage of. Last time out, the Blazers eked out a 1-point win over the Suns. Thats the type of victory a team can build positive momentum from. Now, in a 4-game stretch before Christmas, the Blazers get home games against the Warriors, Magic, T-Wolves and Pelicans. Those are all very winnable games, tonight's being the "easiest" on paper. I believe that they're ready to tip off that stretch by blowing someone out of the building..." Golden State actually played well but the Blazers still grinded out the double-digit win. Now, they're laying a much smaller number against another team they can handle. Once again, I believe that they'll take of business in this very "winnable" game. Anthony has settled into his role as the third option and this is a team ready to go on (at least) a mini run. The Magic have been competitive but have still dropped five of their last six. At the end of a trip, they're already looking forward to getting home in time for last minute Christmas shopping. Consider that the Blazers were laying -10 points when they hosted Orlando last season. Not enough has changed to warrant such a big line swing. The Blazers are 16-5 SU and 14-6-1 ATS against Southeast teams the past couple of seasons. Expect them to improve on those stats here. |
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12-20-19 | Mavs v. 76ers -8 | Top | 117-98 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. The Mavs are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Off b2b losses, including their first at home (now 14-1) the 76ers are going to be angry. The last time that they had lost b2b games, they snapped the skid right there with a 19-point win. The Mavs managed the upset at Milwaukee without Doncic. However, they lost against Boston last time out and his absence will be noticed again here. Talk about a tough stretch: the Bucks, the Celtics, the 76ers and up next the Mavs will face the defending world champs. Facing a highly motivated Philly team, it all catches up to the Mavs here. 76ers are 26-18-1 ATS (36-9 SU) as home favorites in the -6.5 to -12 range the past 2+ seasons and they improve on those stats tonight. |
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12-20-19 | SMU v. Georgia UNDER 147 | Top | 85-87 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 43 m | Show |
I'm playing on SMU/Georgia UNDER the total. Both teams have had a break between games, a much longer one for the Mustangs. Thats noteworthy as the 'under' has been money over the years when they've been on a break of more than seven days. Some early offensive rust won't surprise. Either way, this is a generously high number. Georgia only scored 59 last time out, after allowing only 59 in its previous game. SMU got beat up by Georgetown last game, way back on 12/7, but prior to that has allowed 58 or less in three straight. The Bulldogs are a talented team but they're also young. They're probably going to be better by Feb/March. Right now, they're still missing a lot of scoring from last season. While Georgia games have been higher scoring, those have come primarily against weak teams. They have played some relatively lower scoring games against quality teams (ASU, Dayton) and SMU road games have averaged just 128. In what should be a good game, look for the final score to stay beneath the number. |
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12-19-19 | Lakers v. Bucks -4 | Top | 104-111 | Win | 100 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. Huge game, obviously. While both teams have been great, I believe that the Bucks are the more complete team. Playing at home, I expect them to have the advantage. Note that the Bucks won both last season's meetings by double-digits. While the Lakers have outscored teams by a solid 112.9 to 106.1 mark on the road, the Bucks have outscored teams by a dominating 122.3 to 107.9 margin here at home. While both teams hit roughly the same percentage of field goals, the Bucks are much stingier defensively. Opposing teams hit 41.5% of their fg's against Milwaukee compared to 43.6% (44.7% on road) for LA. Expect that superior defense, along with homecourt, to prove the difference, the Bucks improving to 30-11-1 ATS the past 2+ seasons, when off an upset loss. |
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12-19-19 | UTEP v. Houston -10 | Top | 57-77 | Win | 100 | 24 h 27 m | Show |
I'm playing on HOUSTON. The Cougars' slow start, compared to last season, isn't that surprising. After all, they lost four seniors from last year's 33-win team that went to the Sweet 16. However, there's still plenty of talent here and they're fairly heavy favorites here for good reason. While Houston has faced quality programs like BYU, Oregon, South Carolina and Oklahoma State, UTEP's toughest opponent has arguably been New Mexico State. They did beat UC-Irvine last time out but previous wins has come against lightweights like NC AT&T and Ark-Pine Bluff. UTEP is still just 2-20 SU in lined road games the past 2+ seasons and that includes a 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS mark when the O/U line was in the 120s. The Cougars are 7-0 SU the past seven times that they were off a SU loss as a favorite. Expect them to improve on those stats tonight, picking up the cover along the way. |
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Ben Burns Basketball Top Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
02-05-20 | Suns v. Pistons OVER 218 | Top | 108-116 | Win | 100 | 7 h 25 m | Show |
02-05-20 | Iowa v. Purdue -3 | Top | 68-104 | Win | 100 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
02-04-20 | Spurs v. Lakers OVER 229 | Top | 102-129 | Win | 100 | 14 h 33 m | Show |
02-04-20 | Ball State v. Kent State OVER 134.5 | Top | 62-54 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
02-04-20 | Tennessee +5.5 v. Alabama | Top | 69-68 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
02-03-20 | Wolves v. Kings UNDER 228 | Top | 109-113 | Win | 100 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
02-03-20 | Texas v. Kansas -14 | Top | 58-69 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
02-03-20 | Knicks v. Cavs -1.5 | Top | 139-134 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
02-02-20 | Pelicans v. Rockets -5 | Top | 109-117 | Win | 100 | 6 h 2 m | Show |
02-02-20 | Northern Kentucky v. Wisc-Milwaukee +5.5 | Top | 65-56 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 32 m | Show |
02-01-20 | Montana State v. Montana -6 | Top | 64-78 | Win | 100 | 14 h 44 m | Show |
02-01-20 | Louisville v. NC State OVER 140 | Top | 77-57 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 57 m | Show |
01-31-20 | Wright State v. Wisc-Milwaukee UNDER 151 | Top | 65-61 | Win | 100 | 26 h 3 m | Show |
01-31-20 | Raptors v. Pistons +4.5 | Top | 105-92 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 12 m | Show |
01-30-20 | SIU-Edwardsville +17.5 v. Austin Peay | Top | 58-82 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 19 m | Show |
01-30-20 | Raptors v. Cavs +10 | Top | 115-109 | Win | 100 | 25 h 6 m | Show |
01-30-20 | Hornets v. Wizards -3.5 | Top | 107-121 | Win | 100 | 25 h 58 m | Show |
01-30-20 | NC-Wilmington v. Towson UNDER 134 | Top | 66-77 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
01-29-20 | Rockets v. Blazers +2 | Top | 112-125 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
01-29-20 | Marquette v. Xavier -2.5 | Top | 84-82 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 46 m | Show |
01-28-20 | Utah State v. Wyoming OVER 127 | Top | 68-45 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 46 m | Show |
01-28-20 | Knicks v. Hornets -1.5 | Top | 92-97 | Win | 100 | 25 h 48 m | Show |
01-28-20 | Knicks v. Hornets OVER 209 | Top | 92-97 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
01-28-20 | Michigan -4 v. Nebraska | Top | 79-68 | Win | 100 | 24 h 9 m | Show |
01-27-20 | Kings v. Wolves UNDER 226 | Top | 133-129 | Loss | -109 | 15 h 42 m | Show |
01-27-20 | North Carolina v. NC State OVER 146 | Top | 75-65 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 34 m | Show |
01-26-20 | Pacers v. Blazers -1.5 | Top | 129-139 | Win | 100 | 15 h 14 m | Show |
01-26-20 | Nets v. Knicks OVER 222 | Top | 97-110 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
01-26-20 | Monmouth v. Iona -2 | Top | 94-88 | Loss | -113 | 7 h 5 m | Show |
01-25-20 | Washington v. Colorado -8 | Top | 62-76 | Win | 100 | 13 h 6 m | Show |
01-25-20 | Lakers v. 76ers +5 | Top | 91-108 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
01-25-20 | Baylor v. Florida UNDER 131 | Top | 72-61 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
01-24-20 | Northern Kentucky v. Wright State -3.5 | Top | 63-95 | Win | 100 | 14 h 51 m | Show |
01-24-20 | Raptors v. Knicks +8 | Top | 118-112 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
01-23-20 | Washington State v. Colorado -13.5 | Top | 56-78 | Win | 100 | 15 h 13 m | Show |
01-23-20 | Michigan State v. Indiana OVER 142 | Top | 63-67 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 49 m | Show |
01-23-20 | Wizards v. Cavs -1 | Top | 124-112 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
01-22-20 | Indiana State v. Loyola-Chicago OVER 130.5 | Top | 55-75 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
01-22-20 | 76ers v. Raptors UNDER 218.5 | Top | 95-107 | Win | 100 | 27 h 57 m | Show |
01-22-20 | Thunder v. Magic -1 | Top | 120-114 | Loss | -115 | 27 h 44 m | Show |
01-22-20 | Syracuse v. Notre Dame -4 | Top | 84-82 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
01-21-20 | Air Force v. Utah State OVER 146 | Top | 47-72 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 29 m | Show |
01-21-20 | Texas A&M v. Missouri -8.5 | Top | 66-64 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 55 m | Show |
01-21-20 | Butler v. Villanova -4.5 | Top | 61-76 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
01-20-20 | Spurs v. Suns -4.5 | Top | 120-118 | Loss | -108 | 25 h 40 m | Show |
01-20-20 | Texas v. West Virginia OVER 127.5 | Top | 59-97 | Win | 100 | 23 h 39 m | Show |
01-19-20 | Pacers v. Nuggets UNDER 212.5 | Top | 115-107 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
01-19-20 | Davidson -8.5 v. Fordham | Top | 74-62 | Win | 100 | 4 h 43 m | Show |
01-18-20 | BYU v. Gonzaga UNDER 154.5 | Top | 69-92 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 30 m | Show |
01-18-20 | Cavs v. Bulls -6.5 | Top | 116-118 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
01-18-20 | Oakland v. Wisc-Milwaukee | Top | 68-73 | Win | 100 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
01-17-20 | Hawks v. Spurs OVER 230.5 | Top | 121-120 | Win | 100 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
01-17-20 | Siena v. Canisius | Top | 63-73 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
01-16-20 | Oregon State v. Washington -4 | Top | 56-64 | Win | 100 | 27 h 5 m | Show |
01-16-20 | Jazz v. Pelicans UNDER 227 | Top | 132-138 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 18 m | Show |
01-15-20 | Nets v. 76ers -7.5 | Top | 106-117 | Win | 100 | 22 h 52 m | Show |
01-15-20 | Creighton v. Georgetown -1 | Top | 80-83 | Win | 100 | 22 h 55 m | Show |
01-14-20 | Mavs v. Warriors +8 | Top | 124-97 | Loss | -101 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
01-14-20 | TCU v. West Virginia OVER 127.5 | Top | 49-81 | Win | 100 | 23 h 20 m | Show |
01-14-20 | Suns v. Hawks OVER 225 | Top | 110-123 | Win | 100 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
01-13-20 | Hornets v. Blazers -9.5 | Top | 112-115 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
01-12-20 | Hawks +7.5 v. Nets | Top | 86-108 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
01-11-20 | Bucks v. Blazers +5 | Top | 122-101 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
01-11-20 | Pelicans v. Celtics -9 | Top | 105-140 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
01-10-20 | Pelicans v. Knicks +4 | Top | 123-111 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 14 m | Show |
01-10-20 | Northern Kentucky v. Illinois-Chicago OVER 135 | Top | 68-52 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
01-09-20 | St. Peter's v. Siena -7.5 | Top | 58-61 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 22 m | Show |
01-08-20 | Raptors v. Hornets OVER 207.5 | Top | 112-110 | Win | 100 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
01-08-20 | Davidson +3 v. Rhode Island | Top | 58-69 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
01-07-20 | Kings +6 v. Suns | Top | 114-103 | Win | 100 | 14 h 45 m | Show |
01-06-20 | Thunder v. 76ers -6 | Top | 113-120 | Win | 100 | 27 h 38 m | Show |
01-05-20 | VCU -5.5 v. George Mason | Top | 72-59 | Win | 100 | 14 h 13 m | Show |
01-04-20 | Raptors v. Nets OVER 217 | Top | 121-102 | Win | 100 | 25 h 24 m | Show |
01-04-20 | Virginia Tech v. Virginia -7.5 | Top | 39-65 | Win | 100 | 16 h 5 m | Show |
01-03-20 | UCF v. Houston -9.5 | Top | 63-78 | Win | 100 | 3 h 55 m | Show |
01-02-20 | Grizzlies v. Kings -4 | Top | 123-128 | Win | 100 | 16 h 53 m | Show |
01-02-20 | Oregon v. Colorado +1.5 | Top | 65-74 | Win | 100 | 15 h 44 m | Show |
01-01-20 | Connecticut v. Cincinnati -1.5 | Top | 51-67 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
12-31-19 | Butler v. St. John's +4.5 | Top | 60-58 | Win | 100 | 8 h 33 m | Show |
12-31-19 | Celtics v. Hornets +8 | Top | 109-92 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 11 m | Show |
12-30-19 | Suns v. Blazers -4 | Top | 122-116 | Loss | -108 | 29 h 13 m | Show |
12-30-19 | Davidson -1 v. Vanderbilt | Top | 71-76 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 23 m | Show |
12-29-19 | Loyola Maryland v. VCU -15.5 | Top | 51-85 | Win | 100 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
12-28-19 | Raptors v. Celtics UNDER 216.5 | Top | 113-97 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
12-28-19 | Florida International v. Minnesota UNDER 150.5 | Top | 62-89 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 14 m | Show |
12-27-19 | Bucks v. Hawks +11.5 | Top | 112-86 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
12-26-19 | Wizards v. Pistons -6 | Top | 102-132 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
12-26-19 | Wizards v. Pistons UNDER 231 | Top | 102-132 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
12-25-19 | Pelicans v. Nuggets -10 | Top | 112-100 | Loss | -109 | 34 h 54 m | Show |
12-25-19 | Houston v. Washington UNDER 139.5 | Top | 75-71 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
12-25-19 | Celtics v. Raptors UNDER 213 | Top | 118-102 | Loss | -109 | 23 h 29 m | Show |
12-23-19 | Nuggets v. Suns +3.5 | Top | 113-111 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
12-23-19 | Georgia Southern v. Georgia -9.5 | Top | 64-73 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 31 m | Show |
12-22-19 | Nuggets +7.5 v. Lakers | Top | 128-104 | Win | 100 | 14 h 0 m | Show |
12-21-19 | Clippers v. Spurs +6 | Top | 134-109 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
12-20-19 | Magic v. Blazers -3.5 | Top | 103-118 | Win | 100 | 26 h 51 m | Show |
12-20-19 | Mavs v. 76ers -8 | Top | 117-98 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
12-20-19 | SMU v. Georgia UNDER 147 | Top | 85-87 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 43 m | Show |
12-19-19 | Lakers v. Bucks -4 | Top | 104-111 | Win | 100 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
12-19-19 | UTEP v. Houston -10 | Top | 57-77 | Win | 100 | 24 h 27 m | Show |