Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-09-19 | Bulls v. Blazers OVER 205 | Top | 112-124 | Win | 100 | 29 h 18 m | Show |
I'm playing on Chicago/Portland OVER the total (10* BLUE CHIP). The Blazers extended 'under' streak has provided us with an extremely low number here. I believe that it'll prove to be too low. The last three meetings between these teams have produced 222, 244 and 232 combined points. The Bulls are off a 117-100 loss. That marked the third straight game that they've allowed 112 or more points. Back to that low O/U number. A look at the Blazers' last 10 games shows combined final scores of 210, 239, 213, 219, 220, 224, 221, 220, 211 and 212. Thats translated to a 9-1 'under' record. However, ALL 10 of those games would have finished above tonight's much lower number. This one will too. |
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01-09-19 | CS-Northridge v. UC Riverside +1 | Top | 84-83 | Push | 0 | 17 h 38 m | Show |
I'm playing on UC RIVERSIDE (10* BEST BET). The road team had success in this series last season but I expect homecourt to prove significant tonight. Riverside opened as -2 point favorite but by morning the line had come down a bit, providing us with some additional value on the Highlanders. I believe that they're catching the Matadors, who are off b2b hard fought and demoralizing losses, at the right time. Two games ago, the (+14.5) Matadors had a 19-point lead, at San Diego State, with 15 minutes to play. Yet, they allowed the Aztecs to come back and beat them. Next game, the (+7.5 or +8) Matadors lost in OT, against Yale. That's two games in a row, where they had a real chance to score an upset, only to come up short. Those type of losses take a toll and I expect them to catch up with the Matadors tonight. Note that the Matadors are now 0-15 SU (5-10 ATS) the last 15 times that they were off a SU loss where they covered. The Highlanders, on the other hand, come in full of confidence, as they're off a 112-47 "feel-good" blowout win to start the year. Expect them to carry the positive momentum into tonight's game, en route to the win and cover. |
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01-07-19 | Spurs v. Pistons +3.5 | Top | 119-107 | Loss | -109 | 21 h 14 m | Show |
I'm playing on DETROIT (10* BEST BET). The Pistons fought hard last game and were within a point in the closing seconds. Ultimately, they lost by five vs. the Jazz, failing to cover by a bucket. Even with that result, however, they're a healthy 6-3 ATS against Western Conference opponents. I expect them to improve on those stats here. True, the Spurs are off four straight wins, the last three of those coming at home. They've won just three of their past nine road games though and one of those victories came by a single point, at Chicago. Its also worth noting that the Spurs are just 4-8 ATS the past 12 times that they were coming off three or more consecutive home wins and just 9-20 ATS, during the same span, when off four consecutive victories overall. Overall, San Antonio is 17-5 at home but 6-12 on the road. With a 10-11 home record, the Pistons can get back to .500 here with a win. They were five point underdogs against the Spurs here last season yet won by 14 points. Don't be surprised by another upset tonight. |
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01-06-19 | Nets v. Bulls +2.5 | Top | 117-100 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
I'm playing on CHICAGO (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Nets won a close one here a few weeks ago, eking out a 3-point win. The Bulls are healthier now than they've been all season and thats translated to a 5-2 ATS mark their last seven. This afternoon's game provides a great opportunity to break through with an outright win. The Nets are banged-up themselves, missing the likes of LeVert, Crabbe and Hollis-Jefferson. After this game, the Bulls get a couple of days off before heading out on a West Coast road trip. They very nearly beat Indiana last time out and badly want a victory before hitting the road. Unlike the Bulls, the Nets have a big game tomorrow - the first of two, in a one week span, against the Celtics. That may make it easy to look past the Bulls. That'll prove costly though; the Bulls are 9-4 ATS off a home loss and 3-0 ATS off two or more consecutive home losses. Expect them to improve on those stats here. |
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01-05-19 | Jazz v. Pistons +2.5 | Top | 110-105 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
I'm playing on DETROIT (10* BEST BET). Given the venue and schedule, I believe we're getting excellent value with the Pistons. While Detroit had the past couple of days off, the Jazz were busy beating Cleveland yesterday. Though that may not have been the most taxing game, the Jazz are still just 2-4 SU/ATS when playing the second of b2b games. Meanwhile, the Pistons are 6-2 ATS when playing with two day's rest, 18-11 ATS the past 2+ seasons. Even with last night's win, they're still only 11-12 on the road; the Pistons are 11-8 at home. The Pistons are 6-2 ATS against Western Conference teams, 40-26 ATS the past couple of seasons. Expect at least another cover. |
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01-04-19 | Thunder v. Blazers OVER 223 | Top | 111-109 | Loss | -115 | 30 h 15 m | Show |
I'm playing on OKC/Portland OVER the total. The Blazers have been on an extended 'under' streak but I expect it to come to an end here. Both these teams are going to hit well into the triple-digits. The Thunder have scored more than 100 in 10 straight games. They've scored 100 or more in 10 straight and 23 of 25. (They scored 98 in the other two.) Ditto for the Blazers. Despite the 'under' streak, they've still hit 105 or more in four straight, averaging more than 114. Look for both teams to put up a big number, leading to this one to prove considerably higher scoring than most will be expecting. |
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01-03-19 | Rockets v. Warriors -8 | Top | 135-134 | Loss | -106 | 14 h 0 m | Show |
I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE (10* MAIN EVENT). Even some diehard Warrior fans might be skeptical of laying this many points against Harden and the Rockets. Off b2b double-digit wins, I believe that the champs are finally back in the groove though. The calendar having flipped to 2019, they're going to use tonight's game to demonstrate that. The Rockets continue to be without Paul. Eric Gordon, who had contributed double-digits in scoring in his last seven straight games, 17 or more in his last five, normally logs heavy minutes in Paul's absence. However, he's out, too. Auston Rivers and James Ennis aren't likely to provide Harden with enough secondary scoring to keep up with Curry, Durant, Thompson and co. The Rockets won big when these teams met at Houston earlier. Expect the Warriors, who closed out the year by scoring 132 at Phoenix, to get some payback, improving to 5-0 ATS after scoring 130 or more in their previous game. |
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01-03-19 | NC State v. Miami-FL +3.5 | Top | 87-82 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
I'm playing on MIAMI (10* BEST BET). While I like the Hurricanes' chances of winning this one outright, in what could be a close one, I'm happy to grab the points. After going through a tough stretch, the Canes are playing better. Though they haven't been covering, they enter this game off of three straight confidence-building victories. The Wolfpack are just 19-31 ATS the past 50 times that they were listed as road favorites or pick'em, 0-3 ATS their last three in that role. They've only played one true road game this season and that resulted in a loss. They're just 6-14 SU their last 20 on the road. Both last season's meetings were close, Miami winning each by five points. Factoring in those results, the underdog is 10-3-2 ATS the past 15 meetings in this series. Expect at least another cover for the underdog this evening. |
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01-01-19 | CS-Fullerton v. Washington OVER 136 | Top | 76-84 | Win | 100 | 25 h 1 m | Show |
I'm playing on Cal State Fullteron / Washington OVER the total (10* O/U BEST BET). The Huskies have been involved in some low-scoring games of late. Those results have helped in providing us with a low number for tonight's game. I believe that it'll prove to be too low. When these teams met last, the O/U number was a much higher 164. Even that wasn't nearly high enough, as Washington won by a 104-88 score. The Titans put up 79 points last time out. In their last road game, they allowed 86. On the season, five of their six road games have finished above the number. Overall, the OVER is 5-2-2 the Titans' last nine games. Seven of those nine produced a minimum of 143 combined points. Expect this one to finish with at least that many, once again. |
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01-01-19 | Pistons v. Bucks OVER 218 | Top | 98-121 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
I'm playing on Milwaukee/Detroit OVER the total (8* O/U BEST BET). These teams faced each other twice in December. Those O/U lines were 224.5 at Detroit and 225.5, here at Milwaukee. We're getting a considerably lower O/U line to work with this evening and I feel thats providing us with excellent value. While the Pistons give up 112+ on the road, the Bucks average a whopping 119.8 ppg here at home. The Pistons average 107.7 ppg themselves, which is nearly identical to the 107.9 ppg which the Bucks allow. Over the past couple of seasons, the Bucks have seen the OVER go 22-13 when listed as home favorites in the -6.5 to -12 range. That includes a 7-3 OVER mark when they've been in that role this season. Expect those stats to improve with some offensive fireworks to start 2019. |
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12-31-18 | Warriors v. Suns OVER 226.5 | Top | 132-109 | Win | 100 | 14 h 45 m | Show |
I'm playing on Golden State / Phoenix OVER the total (10* BLUE CHIP). The Warriors last game was on track to finish above the total if not for a low-scoring 44 point fourth quarter. That shouldnt be an issue here. Off a 122-118 loss, the Suns are allowing an average of 124 points over their past five games. They are scoring though, having hit triple-digits in eight straight games. A New Year's Eve game vs. the defending champs figures to have plenty of offensive fireworks. The OVER is 9-4 when the Warriors were listed as road favorites, including a perfect 6-0 when a road favorite in the -6.5 to -12 range. More of the same tonight. |
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12-31-18 | Magic v. Hornets -7 | Top | 100-125 | Win | 100 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
I'm playing on CHARLOTTE (10* PERS FAV). While the Hornets had yesterday off, the Magic are off a close, hard-fought win against Detroit. They're now playing their third game in four days. They've dropped all three road games, when having played the previous day. The Hornets, who hammered Orlando by 32 earlier in the season, lost a close one at Washington on Saturday, their third loss (SU and ATS) in the last four games. They're 8-2 ATS off a loss by six points or less, 4-0 ATS after having dropped three of their last four. Note that the Hornets' recent losses have come on the road. They've won their last three at home by double-digits. Schedule in their favor, expect another one-sided win tonight. |
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12-31-18 | Idaho State v. Eastern Washington -140 | Top | 55-65 | Win | 100 | 7 h 55 m | Show |
I'm playing on EASTERN WASHINGTON (10* MONEY LINE VIOLATOR). Its been a tough start for the Eagles but they're favored here for good reason. The Bengals will be playing their fifth straight away from home and it figures to catch up with them here. The Eagles have played a brutal schedule, one which included the likes of Syracuse, Oregon, Washington, Stanford, San Francisco and South Dakota State. They also faced those teams without Mason Peatling, their top inside threat, while dealing with several other injuries. Peatling and co. are back now though and the tough non-conf. slate will serve them well here. The Eagles were favored by 13 when they hosted the Bengals last season, winning by 11. Expect them to finish on top once again. |
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12-29-18 | Warriors v. Blazers OVER 224 | Top | 115-105 | Loss | -107 | 16 h 49 m | Show |
I'm playing on Golden State / Portland OVER the total (10* BLUE CHIP TOTAL). These teams just faced each other at Oakland a couple of days ago. That game (110-109 Portland) stayed below the total, despite going to OT. That will have many expecting another relatively low-scoring affair and has led to a lower O/U line. However, I'm expecting plenty of points and believe that the O/U line will prove to be too low. Recent meetings between these teams, here at Portland, have produced 233, 240, 231 and 232 points. Note that the OVER is 7-2 the last nine times that the Blazers were off a road win of three or fewer points. Their most recent home game produced 239 points. Prior to Thursday's lower-scoring game, the champs had seen their previous three games produce 228, 256 and 236. With the OVER at 9-3 the last dozen times that the champs were listed as road favorites, I'm expecting plenty of points on Saturday night. |
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12-28-18 | UC-Davis +10 v. Loyola Marymount | Top | 59-77 | Loss | -105 | 33 h 30 m | Show |
I'm playing on UC DAVIS (10* GAME OF WEEK). If you just looked at the records, you'd think that the Aggies (3-8 and 0-5 on the road) would have no chance. However, a closer look shows that Cal Davis has played road games at venues like Arizona, Northern Illinois, Indiana and Arkansas while hosting the likes of San Francisco. In other words, its been a challenging schedule and the sub-500 record isn't surprising. Those tough road games will work in their favor though; they very nearly won at Arizona (2-point loss) last time out and won't be intimidated here. While the Lions are a solid team, they did lose by seven at UC Riverside last time out. Only one of their last five games has resulted in a win of greater than 10 points; prior to the loss last time out, they'd won their previous game by a single point. While the Lions are 2-6 ATS their last eight as home favorites in the 6.5 to 12 range, the Aggies are 6-3 ATS as road underdogs, in the same range, during the same span. Grab the points and don't be surprised if the Aggies take this down to the wire and score the upset. |
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12-27-18 | Celtics v. Rockets UNDER 217 | Top | 113-127 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
I'm playing on Boston/Houston UNDER the total (10* BLUE CHIP). As of this writing, Harden is questionable. As he didn't seem bothered on Tuesday, I'm assuming that he'll play. Paul remains out, however, and even with Harden in the lineup, I'm expecting a relatively low-scoring affair. The Celtics rank in the top 5 in the league in terms of total points allowed and in terms of field goal percentage allowed. I lost with the Celtics 'under' on Christmas. However, even with Irving going off, that game stayed well below the total, if not for OT. That was against a high-scoring, up-tempo Philly team. Now, the Celtics take on a Houston team which has held four of its last six opponents to 101 or fewer points. None of the Rockets' last 13 opponents have scored more than 118 and 11 of those 13 scored 111 or less. The Rockets themselves have been held to less than 110 in four of their past six. Not surprisingly, the UNDER is 7-3-1 their last 11. With the UNDER also at 10-4 the last 14 times that Houston was off a SU win as an underdog, look for this one to prove lower-scoring than most will be expecting. |
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12-26-18 | Suns v. Magic -4 | Top | 122-120 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 40 m | Show |
I'm playing on ORLANDO (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Suns have been on a nice ATS winning streak. However, I fully expect it to come to an end here. The Suns will be playing fifth straight on the road, their final road game of 2018 and final road game for quite some time. I feel that they could easily be thinking ahead to the return trip home. While they did have a couple of days off over Christmas, the triple-OT and b2b games on 12/22 and 12/23 may still catch up with the Suns here. Note that they're 12-20 ATS the past 32 times that they played with two day's rest in between games, 2-4 ATS in that situation this season. Off three straight lopsided losses, the Magic are going to be extremely hungry. The Magic already hammered the Suns at Phoenix and are 4-0 SU the last four in the series, all four wins coming by a minimum of six points. Expect them to bounce back with their best effort, improving to 5-1 ATS the past six times that they were off three consecutive double-digit losses. |
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12-25-18 | Lakers v. Warriors -8.5 | Top | 127-101 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 24 m | Show |
I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE (10* MAIN EVENT). The Warriors have been winning some close games of late, while failing to cover. That caused this line to come out in the single-digits. Make no mistake, the champs are still capable of laying down the hammer and winning games by double-digits. A Christmas Day visit from Lebron and the Lakers is the perfect opportunity to remind everyone of that fact. While Lebron is obviously still on top of his game, the Lakers, 8-14-1 ATS the past 23 times that they played a game with an O/U line of 230 or greater, don't have enough weapons to keep up. Not against the well-oiled machine which is the Warriors, finally back to health. While Durant did tweak an ankle last game, as of this writing, he's expected to be fine. (He typically dominates on Christmas, averaging 31.1 ppg.) Expect a "statement" win for the champs. |
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12-23-18 | Mavs v. Blazers -7 | Top | 118-121 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 10 m | Show |
I'm playing on PORTLAND (10* PERS FAV). These teams met at Dallas a few weeks ago. At the time, the Blazers were really struggling. The Mavs won 111-102. At the time, that result dropped the Blazers to 1-10 ATS (3-8 SU) over an 11-game stretch. However, they've since turned things around. Since the Dallas game, even counting a blowout loss vs. Utah last time out, they've gone 5-3 SU/ATS. Here, they catch the Mavs off a game vs. the defending champs and playing their second game in two days. The Mavs are 1-3 ATS when playing the second of b2b games, most recently losing by double-digits at Phoenix. The Blazers, meanwhile, are 10-4 ATS their last 14 in the revenge role, 6-2 ATS when avenging a road loss. The Blazers, who beat Dallas by nine the last meeting here, are also 5-2 ATS the last seven times that they were off a double-digit divisional loss. Schedule in their favor, expect them to improve on those stats Sunday. |
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12-22-18 | Raptors v. 76ers -4.5 | Top | 101-126 | Win | 100 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA (10* VIOLATOR). The Raptors have taken both this season's meetings. However, both of those were at Toronto. This evening, in addition to having the venue in their favor, the revenge-minded 76ers have the schedule working for them. The Raptors are off a win against Cleveland last night and are now playing their third game in the past four days. Making matters worse, Philly native Kyle Lowry is expected to be out again for the Raptors while start Kawaii Leonard is expected to rest. The 76'ers, meanwhile, have had the past two days off. They're 24-12 ATS in that situation, the past 2+ seasons. During that stretch, they're 37-24 ATS as home favorites, 18-12 ATS as home favorites of six or less. It all adds up to one thing. Payback time. |
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12-22-18 | Ohio State v. UCLA +5.5 | Top | 80-66 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 30 m | Show |
I'm playing on UCLA (10* MAIN EVENT). Calls for Steve Alford's firing are growing louder. A blowout loss this afternoon may seal his fate. Though its still December, a loss here is going to really hurt the Bruins' chances of making the NCAA Tournament - as they're unlikely going to be able to pick up enough quality wins after this one. This is still a very talented team though, one absolutely capable of competing with the Buckeyes and beating them. Aware of the situation, I expect them to rise to the occasion and to bring their best game. While I respect the Buckeyes, lets also not forget that they're just 3-7 ATS their last 10 on a neutral court, 11-21 ATS in non-conference play, during that same span. The previous time that the Bruins were off b2b losses, they responded with a 19-point win. Including that result, they're 8-2 ATS the last 10 times that they'd lost two of their previous three. Look for them to improve on those stats here. |
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12-21-18 | Pacers v. Nets OVER 211 | Top | 114-106 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
I'm playing on Indiana/Brooklyn OVER the total (10* BEST BET). The Pacers have been on an extended 'under' streak but I expect it to come to an end this evening. When these teams met earlier, they combined for 244 points, sailing over the O/U line of 214.5. Note that we're getting a lower O/U line (better line value) to work with tonight, due largely to the Pacers' current streak. The last three meetings between the teams have averaged 232. The Nets last three home games have seen 225, 271 and 243 points scored. The Nets have seen the OVER go 5-1 their past six, when off a road win. Meanwhile, the Pacers have seen the OVER go 6-3 their last nine, off a road loss where they covered the spread. Expect those stats to improve this evening. |
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12-20-18 | Rockets v. Heat +3.5 | Top | 99-101 | Win | 100 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
I'm playing on MIAMI (10* MAIN EVENT). While the Rockets have admittedly been playing better of late, this is a tough spot for them. While the Heat are very well-rested, the Rockets are off a game last night vs. Washington and are now playing their third game in the past four days. They're 2-3 ATS in b2b situations this season and just 2-7 ATS when off a game vs. an Eastern Conf. team. With the exception of a win at Memphis, the Rockets' current winning streak has come at home. They're still 6-10 ATS on the road. The Heat have quietly been playing well themselves. They're 2-0 SU/ATS their last two and 9-3 ATS (7-5 SU) their last 12. Venue and schedule in their favor, expect them to improve to 8-2 ATS the last 10 times that they played with three or more day's rest in between games. |
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12-20-18 | Northern Illinois v. Northern Kentucky -5.5 | Top | 62-65 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
I'm playing on NORTHERN KENTUCKY (10* PERS FAV). The Norse already beat NIU (in OT) on the road. While the Huskies would love to avenge that loss, its not happening. Not here. The Huskies are 7-24 SU in road lined games the past few seasons while the Norse are 25-3 SU in home lined games. The Huskies won big against lowly Western Illinois last time out. However, that was at home. Their last road game resulted in a 27-point road loss. Also, they're just 5-10 ATS the past couple of seasons, when off a double-digit win. After having dropped b2b road games, Northern Kentucky got back on track last time, winning by six against Miami Ohio, another MAC opponent. Note that the Norse are 8-1 ATS the past 2+ seasons, after having dropped two of their previous three games. Expect the Norse to continue their strong play at home, covering the reasonably small number along the way. |
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12-19-18 | Montana +9 v. Arizona | Top | 42-61 | Loss | -108 | 26 h 58 m | Show |
I'm playing on MONTANA (10* GAME OF WEEK). Admitedly, the Grizzlies have had their struggles on the road. However, I feel that they're providing us with excellent value here. The Wildcats are off b2b SU losses and are 0-2-1 ATS their last three. Keep in mind that the Grizzlies returned four starters - and six of their seven top scorers - from last year's NCAA Tournament team. While that team would eventually lose to Michigan, they hung with the Wolverines for the first half. An experienced team with senior leadership, they're not going to be intimidated here. Indeed, I believe this team is better than its shown. While Montana returned the majority of its starting roster, Arizona lost all five of last season's starters. Expect those personnel losses to continue to haunt the Wildcats here, the Grizzlies rising to the occasion, their best effort leading to at least the cover. |
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12-18-18 | Cavs v. Pacers OVER 207 | Top | 92-91 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
I'm playing on Cleveland/Indiana OVER the total (10* TOTAL OF WEEK). The Pacers have been on an extended 'under' streak. Thats led to tonight's O/U line being the lowest on the Tuesday board, at the time this play is posted. Its also the lowest O/U line which the Cavs have seen this entire month. I believe it'll prove to be too low. The earlier meeting between these teams had an O/U line of 213.5 and produced 226 points, a 119-107 victory for the Pacers. Indiana should put up a big number once again; the Cavs have allowed triple-digits in scoring in seven straight games. Three of those seven games saw their opponent score at least 128. Note that the OVER is 12-6 the past 18 times that the Cavs attempted to avenge a double-digit home loss, 4-1 the past five. Even though the recent Pacer games have been falling below the number, their last four have still finished with 210, 210, 214 and 209. All of those scores would have finished above tonight's low number. Tonight's score will too. |
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12-17-18 | Kings v. Wolves -8 | Top | 105-132 | Win | 100 | 27 h 53 m | Show |
I'm playing on MINNESOTA (10* GAME OF WEEK). These teams have met twice so far this season. Both meetings were at Sacramento. The Kings won both by double-digits. This evening, however, the T-Wolves have homecourt on their side. They've also got the schedule working in their favor. While Minneota had Sunday off, the Kings were busy playing at Dallas. In addition to playing the second of b2b games, this will be the Kings' third game in the past four days. The last four times that the Kings played the second of b2b games? They went 0-4 SU/ATS. All four of those games resulted in double-digit losses, 107-97, 133-112, 132-112, 101-86. Expect more of the same here, a highly motivated Minnesota team pulling away for another double-digit win. |
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12-15-18 | Wolves v. Suns OVER 214 | Top | 99-107 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
I'm playing on Phoenix/Minnesota OVER the total (10* BLUE CHIP). I've successfully backed the Suns in each of their last home games, a cover (OT loss) vs. the Clippers and an outright double-digit win over Dallas. Off that victory and facing a Minnesota team which is currently playing some very high-scoring games, I expect to see plenty of points tonight. Note that the OVER is 10-3 the past 2+ seasons when Phoenix was off a double-digit win and 27-15 when the Suns were off an upset win as an underdog. The T-Wolves last game produced 271 combined points. The games before that saw 218, 234 and 225 points scored. The T-Wolves' last visit here saw them combine with the Suns for 221 points. Including that result, each of the last six meetings between these teams has seen a minimum of 214 combined points. Expect them to exceed that mark again tonight. |
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12-14-18 | Raptors v. Blazers +3.5 | Top | 122-128 | Win | 100 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
I'm playing on PORTLAND (8* SHOCKER). Off a huge road win over the champs, I believe that the Raptors are going to be ripe for a letdown. Note that the Raptors are 5-9 ATS after scoring 110 or more in two more consecutive games. They'll be facing an angry and talented Portland team, one which hasn't lost a home game by more than four points all season. Not surprisingly, the Blazers are already 1-0 ATS as home underdogs (15-point win over the Bucks) this season; 11-7 ATS in that role the past couple of years. The Blazers haven't forgotten that the Raptors came in here and shut them down early last season, before blowing them out at Toronto. Its finally payback time! |
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12-14-18 | Florida Atlantic v. Arkansas State -123 | Top | 71-75 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
I'm playing on ARKANSAS STATE (10* BEAST). Expect homecourt to be the difference in this one. Playing at Minnesota, the Red Wolves dug themselves a big hole (21-2) out of the gate last time out. They didn't quit though and even rallied for the cover, losing 72-56 as a 20.5 point underdog. They won their last game here by double-digits, a pick'em game vs. Evansville. In fact, they've only played two games here and are 2-0. While the 56 points was a season low, its worth noting that the Wolves are a perfect 7-0 ATS the past couple of years, after scoring 60 or less in their previous game. The Owls lone road game this month resulted in a loss at Bethune-Cookman. Arkansas State won a close one at FAU last season, as 6.5 point underdog. Playing at home, expect the Wolves to finish on top once again. |
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12-14-18 | Wizards v. Nets OVER 225 | Top | 118-125 | Win | 100 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
I'm playing Washington/Brooklyn OVER the total (10* BLUE CHIP TOTAL). These teams have met twice this season. Both games were at Washington. Each stayed below the total. Tonight's game is at Brooklyn, however, and I expect a considerably higher-scoring affair. With Brooklyn a small favorite, note that the OVER is 39-29 the past 2+ seasons, when the Wizards were road underdogs. Both teams should put up a big number tonight. The Wizards scored 125 points against Boston last time out, the sixth straight time that they hit triple-digits. Meanwhile, the Nets managed 127 through four quarters at Philly last game, a 127-124 win. The Wizards allow 119.7 ppg on the road while the Nets allow 114 at home. Expect more offensive fireworks. |
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12-13-18 | Eastern Washington v. San Francisco -18 | Top | 63-85 | Win | 100 | 16 h 59 m | Show |
I'm playing on SF. The Dons are rolling. Off their big win against Cal, expect them to carry the momentum into this evening's game against an outclassed Eagles team. |
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12-12-18 | Raptors v. Warriors -6.5 | Top | 113-93 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Raptors beat a short-handed (no Curry) Warriors team, at Toronto, in OT. The game had been billed as a Finals Preview and the some of the fans reacted as if they'd won a finals game. Now healthier, playing at home and with the schedule in their favor, expect the revenge-minded champions to get some payback. Leonard was the hero for the Raptors in the first game. However, he didnt play last night. If he does go tonight, he may be less than 100%. Either way, the Warriors are 6-2 ATS (7-1 SU) the past eight times that they attempted to avenge a loss of three or fewer points and we can expect them to improve on those stats. |
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12-12-18 | Murray State v. Southern Illinois -3 | Top | 80-52 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
I'm playing on SIU (10* GAME OF MONTH). This is a regional rivalry and its an important game for both teams. While the Racers are playing well, I expect homecourt and a stingy Southern Illinois defense to ultimately prove the difference. Murray State won by eight, as a 5-point favorite, at home, last season. However, SIU won by four, as a -2.5 point favorite, in the last meeting here. While the Racers may be 5-0 ATS through six games, they're just 1-1 SU in true road games and they're also only 2-7 ATS the past couple of seasons, after covering the spread in four or five of their previous six games. The Salukis have thrived as small home favorites in recent seasons and come in confident; they're off five straight wins, the last three of which they were favored for. They're 4-0 ATS the past couple of seasons, after having been favored in three straight. Expect them to improve on those stats here. |
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12-11-18 | Blazers v. Rockets OVER 219.5 | Top | 103-111 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
I'm playing on Portland/Houston OVER the total (10* TOTAL OF MONTH). I dont expect either of these teams to "stop scoring" at any time during this game. While both teams have played a few 'unders' of late, helping to keep the O/U line reasonably low, don't forget that these are two explosive offenses. Even factoring in a low-scoring game to begin the season, eight of the past 10 meetings have produced a minimum of 219 combined points. Seven of 10 produced a minimum of 223. The OVER is 11-5 the last past couple of seasons, when the Blazers were listed as road underdogs in the 6.5 to 12 point range. During the same span, the OVER is also 6-1 when the Rockets were off two or more consecutive road losses. Expect fireworks. |
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12-10-18 | CS-Fullerton +12.5 v. St. Mary's | Top | 66-81 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 2 m | Show |
I'm playing on CAL STATE FULLERTON (10* MASTERPIECE). In my opinion, the gap between these teams isn't nearly as big as the pointspread suggests. The Titans brought back most of their depth and four starters from a team which made the NCAA Tournament last season. While the Titans' admittedly record isn't very good, they've had a number of close losses, a couple coming in OT. Only one of their losses by more than 10 points. While the Gaels have won a few in a row, they'd previously lost four straight. Grab the points. |
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12-10-18 | Kings v. Bulls +2.5 | Top | 108-89 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 33 m | Show |
I'm playing on CHICAGO (10* BEST BET). The Bulls got embarrassed by Boston on Saturday and they're going to be looking to bounce back with a much better effort. I believe that they're catching the Kings at the right time. Sacramento lost by double-digits at Indiana Saturday and will now be playing its third road game in the past four days. The Bulls have been dealing with injuries all year but they're slowly getting heathier. Prior to the Boston debacle, the Bulls' previous two home games resulted in an outright win against OKC and a 1-point loss against San Antonio. Expect their best effort to lead to at least another cover here. |
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12-08-18 | Nuggets v. Hawks +7.5 | Top | 98-106 | Win | 100 | 26 h 6 m | Show |
I'm playing on ATLANTA. The Nuggets absolutely destroyed the Hawks, at Denver, a few weeks ago, a 45-point beatdown. At the time, the Hawks were in the middle of a road trip and had just lost tight games against the Lebron Lakers and the defending champion Warriors. Off those b2b close losses and weary from being thousands of miles from home, they were vulnerable. This time, its the Hawks which are at home. This time, its the Nuggets who have been on the road for some time. The Nuggets played last night at Charlotte and are now playing their third game in four days, the final leg of a 5-game road trip. Dating back to the 11/15 game against the Hawks, the Nuggets have not played in the same arena in consecutive games. Thats a lot of travel; after this they finally get a 4-game home stretch. The Hawks haven't forgotten the 11/15 loss. Schedule and venue in their favor, expect them to improve to 11-4 ATS the last 15 times that they attempted to avenge a loss of 20 or more points. |
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12-07-18 | Grizzlies v. Pelicans -4.5 | Top | 107-103 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 60 m | Show |
I'm playing on NEW ORLEANS (10* PERS FAV). I successfully played on the Grizzlies in their last game, a double-digit win over the Clippers on Wednesday. However, that was at Memphis, where they've been playing well all year. They're now 8-3 at home. The road has been a different story, as they've been mediocre away from Memphis, most recently losing by eight. The home/road difference is even more pronounced for the Pelicans. They're only 3-10 on the road but an impressive 10-3 here at New Orleans. Last time out, they won by 26. While the Pelicans have tomorrow off, the Grizzlies will host Lebron and the Lakers tomorrow. It all adds up to another big home win for the Pelicans. |
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12-07-18 | NC-Greensboro v. Elon +12.5 | Top | 75-74 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
I'm playing on ELON (10* BEST BET). Admittedly, the Spartans are a solid team. Last time out, they even gave Kentucky all it could handle. For awhile, at least. Midway through the second half, the Spartans even led the Wildcats. Kentucky closed things out on a big run though; the 78-61 final snapping UNC Greensboro's 6-game winning streak. While they've had a few days off, I expect that loss to take a toll. While the Phoenix have not gotten off to a good start, I believe that they're a little better than they've shown and that the early results have helped in providing us with an extra generous number. The Phoenix love to hit from downtown and they're pretty good at doing so. They're 14-6 ATS over the years, after allowing 90 or more points in their previous game, and I look for them to give their guests a much tougher game than most will be expecting. |
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12-05-18 | Utah State v. BYU | Top | 80-95 | Win | 100 | 26 h 43 m | Show |
I'm playing on BYU (10* GAME OF WEEK). While the Aggies have admittedly been playing well, the Cougars have dominated them in recent seasons. Just in the 'Nick' of time, the Cougars get Emery back from a 9-game suspension. He'll provide a much-needed spark to the offense. Keep in mind that the junior has made 172 three-pointers, on 38% shooting, over the course of his career. Its not too late for the Cougars, who had high hopes coming in, to salvage their season. Expect them to rise to the occasion with a much-needed victory. |
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12-05-18 | Thunder v. Nets +7.5 | Top | 114-112 | Win | 100 | 28 h 54 m | Show |
I'm playing on BROOKLYN (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Thunder are off b2b2b blowout wins and are playing well. I expect the Nets to bring them back down to earth though. OKC's recent winning streak has created plenty of value at the betting window. Keep in mind that the Thunder are laying a bigger number here than they were at venues like Phoenix and Cleveland. Yet, the Nets have a better record than either the Suns or Cavs. Grab the generous points and expect the Nets to rise to the occasion with AT LEAST a cover. |
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12-03-18 | Rockets v. Wolves +2 | Top | 91-103 | Win | 100 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
I'm playing on MINNESOTA (10* BEST BET). True, the Rockets are off b2b blowout wins. However, lets not forget that they'd lost four in a row, before that. Also, its worth noting that they're only 13-21 ATS the past couple of seasons, when off b2b double-digit victories. I expect homecourt to be the difference in this one. The T-Wolves are a profitable 14-6-1 ATS (16-5 SU) the last 21 times that they played a home game with an O/U line of 220 or greater. Look for them to rise to the occasion and improve on those stats tonight. |
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12-02-18 | Jazz v. Heat +4 | Top | 100-102 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
I'm playing on MIAMI (10* BEST BET). While this is only their third consecutive road game, I believe that the Jazz will be getting a little road-weary. Thats because this marks the 13th consecutive time that they'll be playing at a different venue than they played their previous game at. Ten of those 13 (10 of L12) have come on the road. (The two home games during that stretch were immediately followed by a road game.) Either way, I expect them to have their hands full. Note that Utah is 0-4 ATS after having won three of its previous four. The Heat come in confident, off their minor upset of the Pelicans. They're 8-2 ATS the last 10 times that they were off an upset win as a home underodg. The Heat have defeated the Jazz three straight times, two of those wins coming by a single point. Expect them to take this down to the wire with a great shot at another upset. |
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12-01-18 | Nets v. Wizards -5 | Top | 88-102 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
I'm playing on WASHINGTON (10* GAME OF MONTH). Both teams played and lost yesterday. However, while the Wizards were getting blown out at Philly, the Nets double-OT loss was arguably far more painful and it should take a far bigger toll on them today. The Wizards are going to be in an angry mood. Not just from yesterday but also because the Nets upset them here a couple of weeks ago. Schedule in their favor, expect some serious payback today. |
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11-29-18 | Clippers v. Kings +3 | Top | 133-121 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 30 m | Show |
I'm playing on SACRAMENTO (10* BEST BET). The Kings are off b2b losses, for the fourth time this season. However, they've been great in that situation (3-0 SU/ATS) and they've got both the venue and the schedule in their favor. While the Kings, 6-2-1 ATS their last nine when playing with three or more day's rest in between games, are well-rested, the Clippers are off a win over Phoenix last night. Though they did pull away for a convincing victory, the score was tied at half. So, stars Harris and Gallinari were still forced to see relatively heavy (33 + 35) minutes. The Kings began the season with b2b defeats. They responded with a double-digit win (as a double-digit dog) over the Thunder. At the beginning of this month, the Kings again lost b2b games. They answered with a double-digit win over the T-Wolves, again when listed as an underdog. In the middle of this month, they lost b2b games for a third time. Once again, they faced OKC. Once again, they responded with an outright win. Expect their best effort to lead to at least another cover tonight. |
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11-29-18 | Alabama +7 v. UCF | Top | 64-70 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
I'm playing on ALABAMA (10* BEST BET). The Knights upset the Tide last season, winning by three points (65-62) at Alabama. The Tide, who were favored by -9.5 points for that game, haven't forgotten and are coming in ready to play. Though they haven't been covering, this is a confident team which has won three straight and five of six. Like last year's game, expect this one to come right down to the wire, the visiting underdog again coming away with AT LEAST another cover. |
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11-28-18 | Monmouth v. Kentucky -24 | Top | 44-90 | Win | 100 | 26 h 7 m | Show |
I'm playing on KENTUCKY (10* GAME OF MONTH). I've only played on the Wildcats once this season. They came through for me in that 11/14 game, the only game that they've covered this season, easily disposing of North Dakota by a 38-point margin. They're laying a similar number here as they were for that one and I'm again expecting another lopsided win and cover. Monmouth is an ugly 0-7 on the season. Even teams like CS-Fullerton and Lehigh were able to beat them by 24. Monmouth wasn't on the road for either of those either. Needless to say, Kentucky is a far stronger opponent. While the ATS wins haven't been there, the Cats have now won five straight by double-digits. Expect them to pull away and win this one by more than 30. |
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11-28-18 | Spurs v. Wolves OVER 217.5 | Top | 89-128 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 12 m | Show |
I'm playing on Minnesota/SA to finish OVER the total. The T-Wolves have been involved in some lower-scoring games of late. Thats worked in our favor, helping to keep the O/U line lower than it could have been otherwise. There's also still a long-standing perception that the Spurs are a defensive team, also working in our favor. The latter hasn't been the case for some time now. A look at the Spurs' last five games reveals that they averaged greater than 232 combined points. In all five cases the Spurs, and their opponent, reached triple digits in scoring. On the season, SA games are averaging 219.6 combined points while Minnesota games are averaging 220.2. This season's earlier meeting produced 220 points. Look for them to combine for at least that many again this evening, the OVER improving to 7-3 the last 10 times that the Spurs were listed as underdogs. |
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11-27-18 | East Tennessee State v. Georgia Southern -4 | Top | 69-64 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
I'm playing on GEORGIA SOUTHERN (10* FULLCOURT PRESS). Both these teams have played well thus far, both have been money at the betting window. That said, playing at home, I expect the Eagles to have the advantage. The Buccaneers are perfect at home but only 1-2 on the road. The Eagles just beat a trio of respectable tams (FAU, Pepperdine and Montana) on a neutral court and they won their two home games by an average score of 118.5 to 70. While they did start out with a 'cupcake,' the last four wins have been legit. Last season, playing at home, the Bucs hammered the Eagles. Senior guard Tookie Brown and co. haven't forgotten. Tonight, they get some payback. |
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11-26-18 | Magic v. Warriors -8 | Top | 110-116 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 8 m | Show |
I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE (10* GAME OF WEEK). While they're still dealing with some injuries, here's a great spot for the champs to "get healthy." While the Warriors had yesterday off, the Magic were busy playing Lebron and the Lakers, at LA. Playing their third in four days, the first of which was in the high altitude of Denver, expect fatigue to be a factor for the Magic, the Magic happy to lay down the hammer for a convincing win and cover. |
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11-25-18 | Clippers v. Blazers -4 | Top | 104-100 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
I'm playing on PORTLAND (10* PERS FAV). Off b2b losses, the Blazers are going to be a determined team this evening. With an 11-point win against them a few weeks ago, the Blazers have now beaten the Clippers four straight times. All four victories came by a minimum of eight points. The Blazers are 7-3 ATS on the season, when laying points. The Clippers, on the other hand, are now 3-6 ATS when getting points. They're also just 2-5 ATS when playing a road game with an O/U line of 220 or greater. Blazers roll. |
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11-25-18 | IUPU Ft Wayne v. Cleveland State +4.5 | Top | 82-79 | Win | 100 | 8 h 56 m | Show |
I'm playing on CLEVELAND STATE (10*). While neither of these are "big name" teams, I believe that the Vikings are offering us excellent value as underdogs. The Mastadons are 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS on the road, allowing an average of 98 points. They're now 8-23 ATS their last 31 road lined games. Though wins have been hard to come by, I like the direction Dennis Felton has the Vikings going. Though I like their chances of an outright upset, I'm happy to grab the points. |
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11-24-18 | Pelicans v. Wizards +2 | Top | 114-124 | Win | 100 | 26 h 50 m | Show |
I'm playing on WASHINGTON (10* BEST BET). Both teams played Friday. So, each will be playing the second of b2b games. However, New Orleans also played Wednesday, while Washington did not. That means that the Pelicans are playing their third game in four days, while the same cannot be said of the Wizards. Knowing that they'll face these same Pelicans, at New Orleans, on Wednesday, expect the Wizards to "hold serve" by protecting their home court. |
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11-23-18 | Rockets v. Pistons UNDER 218 | Top | 111-116 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 35 m | Show |
I'm playing on Houston/Detroit UNDER the tota (10* BLUE CHIP)l. These teams just played a very high-scoring game at Houston. That result has led to a higher O/U line than the first game had. With the rematch being played at Detroit, the day after Thanksgiving, I expect the Pistons to slow things down and that to lead to a much lower final combined score. The UNDER is 21-8 the past 29 times that the Pistons had allowed 115 or more points in their previous game and 20-9 the past 29 times that the Pistons had scored 115 or more points in their previous game. Expect those stats to improve here. |
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11-21-18 | Harvard v. San Francisco -6 | Top | 57-61 | Loss | -103 | 16 h 13 m | Show |
I'm playing on SF (10* PERS FAV). The Dons are playing with a ton of confidence. Sure, the competition has been weak. However, this team can improve to 5-0 under Kyle Smith for the first time. They've won all their games by a minimum of 32 points and their +35.8 point average margin of victory ranks fourth in the country. A +21.3 edge in rebounds ranks second in the country. While its true that Harvard has been strong at the betting window in recent seasons and also true that the team brought back nearly all its pieces from last season, the Crimson will be playing their third straight on the road. A 2-point loss at Rhode Island last time out figures to take a toll. So does the absence of Bryce Aiken and Seth Towns. Those are two huge losses for this team. Expect the Dons to keep on rolling for another day. |
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11-21-18 | Pelicans v. 76ers -3.5 | Top | 120-121 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 52 m | Show |
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA (10* PERS FAV). The home team won both meetings last season. The Pelicans won by seven at New Orleans. Howver, the 76ers hammered them by a 100-82 margin in the game here at Philadelphia. Homecourt has been huge from both these teams again so far this season. The 76ers are a poor 3-7 on the road but a perfect 9-0 here at Philadelphia. Meanwhile, the Pelicans are 8-1 at New Orleans but just 2-6 at home. With an O/U line in the high 230s, this is expected to be a high-scoring game. That suits the 76ers just fine. They're 29-13 ATS the past 42 times that they played a game with an O/U line of 220 or greater. During that same span, they're also 52-27-1 ATS when facing an opponent which averages 106 or more points. Expect the tempo and venue to lead to another win and cover for the new look 76ers. |
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11-20-18 | Clippers v. Wizards -112 | Top | 118-125 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
I'm playing on WASHINGTON (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Clippers may have beaten me by a bucket last night but that won't prevent me from going against them again tonight. While LA had to fight hard to come back to win at Atlanta last night, the Wizards were waiting and resting. Off b2b losses, they're going to be in an angry mood, too. Not just because of the b2b losses but also because the Clippers hammered them at LA by 32 points, a few weeks ago. The Wizards also lost at LA last season but responded with a 9-point win in the rematch at Washington. Schedule in their favor, expect them to again have their revenge. |
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11-19-18 | VCU v. Temple -2.5 | Top | 57-51 | Loss | -108 | 15 h 49 m | Show |
I'm playing on TEMPLE (10* PERS FAV). The Owls and Rams will be facing each other at Barclays Center in Brooklyn. I expect the Owls to have the advantage. Over the years, we've gotten used to the Rams consistently being a very strong squad. Indeed, prior to last season, the Rams had won a minimum of 24 games in 11 consecutive seasons. Last season, they got a new coach and fell to just 17-14. Top players Tillman and Williams prevented them from stumbling even further. However, they too have now moved on. That means that the Rams are going to have trouble with teams like Temple. Unlike the Rams, the Owls brought back most of their pieces from last season's team. Expect their experience and depth to prove the difference Monday night. |
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11-19-18 | Clippers v. Hawks +7 | Top | 127-119 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 50 m | Show |
I'm playing on ATLANTA (10* BEST BET). While they haven't been getting any "W's" to show for it, the Hawks are fighting very hard. They've covered the spread in three of their last four. The Hawks played the Clippers tough last time they met, LA winning by a single point. I expect them to again give the Clippers all they can handle. While both teams had Sunday off, the Hawks also have tomorrow (Tuesday) off. The Clippers, on the other hand, have a rematch against Washington tomorrow. The Clippers are 3-4 on the road overall and that includes a 1-4 SU/ATS mark when playing on the road when the O/U was 220 or greater. Grab the points. |
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11-17-18 | St. Louis +7.5 v. Seton Hall | Top | 66-64 | Win | 100 | 27 h 34 m | Show |
I'm playing on ST LOUIS. The Billikens have won all three of their games and come in confident. On the other hand, the Pirates may have lost a little of their swagger; they were hammered by 23 points, at Nebraska, last time out. The Pirates have lost a lot: Desi Rodriguez (17.8 ppg), Khadeen Carrington (15.6 ppg and 4.4 apg), and all-time rebounding leader Angel Delgado (13.6 ppg and 11.8 rpg). Expect them to have their hands full. |
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11-16-18 | Jazz v. 76ers -2.5 | Top | 107-113 | Win | 100 | 28 h 52 m | Show |
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. Homecourt has been huge for the 76ers. Indeed, they're an ugly 2-7 on the road but a perfect 7-0 here at Philadelphia. I fully expect them to keep that perfect record in tact for awhile yet. (After this, their next home games are against Phoenix, New Orleans, Cleveland and NY - all very winnable games.) The first game with Jimmy Butler in the lineup didn't go so well, as the 76ers blew a 16-point lead and lost at Orlando. His acquisition makes this a very dangerous team, however, with three elite players. They're going to be highly motivated to get the first win of the "new era." Sure, the Jazz are going to also be motivated to bounce back off their embarrassing 50-pt loss. However, that loss revealed some issues and I don't think the Jazz match up well against the new look 76ers. Note that Philly swept the season series last year, including a 107-86 blowout win in the game here. They were laying -6 for that one. Despite the perfect home record and arguably a superior team, we're getting them at a lower line here. I feel thats offering excellent value and am expecting another big win. |
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11-15-18 | Oregon v. Iowa +4 | Top | 69-77 | Win | 100 | 14 h 22 m | Show |
I'm playing on IOWA (10* GAME OF WEEK). These teams will be playing at MSG. While thats technically a neutral court, I expect it to favor the Hawkeyes. Iowa has played here before, as the Big Ten Tourney was played here last season. (The Hawkeyes beat Illinois and lost to Michigan, the eventual champ, in OT.) Oregon, on the other hand, hasn't played here in more than a decade. While the Ducks are indeed very talented, they're also relatively young. This game is going to be a big deal to them and I expect there to be some nervousness. With an O/U line in the low 150s, as this play is posted, note that the Ducks are just 3-10 ATS the past 13 times that they played a neutral court game with an O/U line in the 150 to 154.5 range. Don't expect them to improve on those stats tonight. |
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11-14-18 | North Dakota v. Kentucky -26 | Top | 58-96 | Win | 100 | 27 h 58 m | Show |
I'm playing on KENTUCKY (10* VIOLATOR). The Wildcats opened as the biggest favorite on the Wednesday board. However, I think that line could have easily been even higher, as I'm expecting an absolute destruction. As you probably saw or heard, the Cats got embarrassed by Duke on opening night. Off that 118-84 blowout loss, the worst since before Calipari came here, they came out a little flat out of the gate for their next game and found themselves trailing 44-37 against Southern Illinois. Kentucky woke up though and won 71-59. That wasn't quite enough for the cover but it absolutely provides them with positive momentum. Calipari had this to say: "I just said, be happy we won and figure it out. I've got a pretty good idea of how I'm going to do this now, and I'm just glad that we really got smashed, so there's no question. If you demand a lot, you get a lot. If you accept mediocrity, you're going to get it every time. ... I was very aggressive today." Stepping down in class, expect Calipari to keep the pedal to the metal the whole way Wednesday, en route to a 30+ point blowout win. |
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11-14-18 | Grizzlies v. Bucks -9.5 | Top | 116-113 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 16 m | Show |
I'm playing on MILWAUKEE (10* PERS FAV). The Grizzlies have been tough at home. However, they only score 96.3 ppg on the road and thats led to a 2-4 record. Its also going to make it extremely difficult to keep up with a Milwaukee team which averages 124.3 ppg here at home. Allowing only 105.2 ppg here, the Bucks have a perfect 6-0 home record, covering the number in five of those. In fact, even the lone non-cover here was an 11-point win when they were favored by -11.5. In other words, all six games here have been double-digit victories. Expect another one tonight. |
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11-13-18 | Hornets v. Cavs OVER 219 | Top | 89-113 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
I'm playing Charlotte/Cleveland OVER the total (10* BLUE CHIP TOTAL). These teams met 10 days ago, combining for 220 points. That game just slipped below the closing O/U line of 221.5 or 222. Tonight, we're working with a slightly lower O/U number, which I feel is providing us with excellent value. Other than the fact that the number was high, the primary reason the game at Charlotte stayed below the total was the Cavs' inability to score, particularly in the second half. The Hornets did their part, scoring 126 points. However. However, Cleveland managed just 96, only 42 in the second half. Tonight, however, the Cavs are on their home floor, where they should be considerably more competitive and where they should be able to keep scoring the entire game. The Hornets put up points, regardless of venue. They've hit tripled-digits in every game this season. Expect a relatively high-scoring affair. |
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11-12-18 | Louisiana-Monroe v. Texas -20 | Top | 55-65 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
I'm playing on TEXAS (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Longhorns are 2-0 SU but 0-2 ATS thus far. Off a hard fought win over Arkansas, tonight's opponent provides the perfect opportunity for a "feel good" blowout win. Texas won 80-59 when these teams last met and the gap figures to be even larger this time. LA Monroe's games against Jackson State and Millsaps College won't have prepared them for the type of athleticism and intensity that they're going to see tonight. This one gets ugly. |
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11-12-18 | Magic v. Wizards -9 | Top | 109-117 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 16 m | Show |
I'm playing on WASHINGTON (10* GAME OF WEEK). Off a win at Miami and now with some positive momentum, the Wizards badly need to string together victories. This figures to be the perfect opponent and situation to get one. While the Wizards had yesterday off, the Magic were busy beating up on the Knicks. Sure, that wasn't the most taxing win. However, its still worth mentioning that the Magic are an ugly 11-25-1 ATS (10-27 SU) the past couple of seasons, when off an upset win. The Magic just beat the Wizards, at Orlando, a few nights ago. Schedule and venue in their favor, expect the revenge-minded Wizards to get some payback. |
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11-10-18 | Nets v. Warriors -8 | Top | 100-116 | Win | 100 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE (10* PERS FAV). Many aren't going to be willing to back the champs tonight. Not without Curry. Not without Green. As a result, we're getting the champs at a far lower line than we normally would; GS was laying -15 when hosting the Nets last season. I feel thats providing us with excellent value. With the venue and schedule in their favor, Durant, Thompson and co. still have more than enough to deliver a double-digit win tonight. After getting hammered by the Bucks on Thursday, the well-coached Warriors are going to be all business tonight. While the Warriors had last night off, the Nets are off a hard-fought (112-110) win in the high altitude of Denver. They're already 0-2 SU/ATS this season, when playing the second of b2b games. They lost those games by 20 and 19 points. More of the same here. |
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11-09-18 | Celtics v. Jazz -3 | Top | 115-123 | Win | 100 | 14 h 2 m | Show |
I'm playing on UTAH (10* MAIN EVENT). Last night's game at Phoenix worked out about as well as I could have possibly hoped. Not only did I cover with the Suns but the Celtics were forced to fight back and win the game in overtime. The starters had to log some pretty heavy minutes, Irving going over the 43-minute mark. While the Celtics were having to give everything they had, the Jazz had last night off. The Celtics are already 0-1 ATS when playing the second of b2b games and they're now 2-5 ATS on the road. The Jazz snapped their losing streak last time out, winning by 15 points. Schedule and venue in their favor, expect them to carry the positive momentum from that game into tonight's contest, en route to a win and cover. |
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11-09-18 | Toledo v. Oakland +6 | Top | 87-86 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
I'm playing on OAKLAND (10* BEST BET). When these teams met at Toledo last season, the line was basically a pick'em. (Toledo closed as a 1-point favorite and won 87-74.) Oakland played that game without one of its top players, Jaylen Hayes, who was out with suspension. Hayes has moved on, as have Nunn and Walker. All three averaged 17 or more points last season. So, those are indeed some big shoes to fill. That said, this is a well-coached team and the cupboard isn't nearly as bare as many seem to feel. The Golden Griffins come in with some confidence, winning their first game by a 99-44 margin. Sure, the opponent (Kalamazoo) was a joke but the fact that they've got that big win under their belt will benefit them. While the Rockets should have another good season and do return a number of key players, the loss of Fletcher (18.1 ppg, 8 rbg) is significant. (He had 20/8 in last year's game.) Last year's game was closer than the final score indicated, the Grizzlies trimming the gap twice in the second half. While I respect the Rockets, I expect the Grizzlies to give them all they can handle here. |
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11-08-18 | Celtics v. Suns +10 | Top | 116-109 | Win | 100 | 14 h 38 m | Show |
I'm playing on PHOENIX (10* BEST BET). With the Celtics off b2b losses, many will be expecting them to bounce back with an easy win tonight. However, those b2b losses continue a pattern and should be of concern to anyone looking to lay the big number tonight. Through six road games, the Celtics are 3-3. A closer look shows that only one of those six games resulted in a win of greater than six points. With a "bigger game" (Utah) on deck tomorrow, I feel that the Celtics are going to have trouble covering the big number here. The Suns covered both meetings with Boston last season, losing by five and eight points. In fact, they covered both meetings the previous season, too. Including those results, Phoenix is 14-8 ATS is last 22 against teams from the Atlantic while Boston is 8-12 ATS its last 20 against Pacific teams. Unlike their guests, the Suns don't play tomorrow. Their full focus is on the task at hand. Though Booker isn't quite 100% yet, he's got a handful of games under his belt now and is still playing at a high level. Ayton, the #1 pick, is off to a strong start and gives them a new dynamic. Expect their best effort to lead to AT LEAST another cover tonight. |
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11-07-18 | Nuggets v. Grizzlies +4 | Top | 87-89 | Win | 100 | 13 h 25 m | Show |
I'm playing on MEMPHIS (10* BEST BET). The Nuggets are almost always tough at home. However, they're still just 36-50 on the road the past couple of seasons and a closer look at their schedule reveals that they've faced some relatively easy opponents through this season's first four games. Their last two on the road were at Cleveland and Chicago. (Those teams are a combined 4-17 and they're both only won one game on their own home floor.) Tonight, the Nuggets will face a Grizzly team which is a perfect 3-0 on its home floor, outscoring visiting teams by a commanding average of 118.3 to 102.7. The Grizzlies covered both home games against the Nuggets last season, most recently winning outright as a 7-point underdog. Expect them to continue their strong homecourt play this evening. |
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11-06-18 | Nets v. Suns OVER 220 | Top | 104-82 | Loss | -115 | 28 h 38 m | Show |
I'm playing Brooklyn/Phoenix OVER the total (10* O/U VIOLATOR). The Nets typically play high-scoring games against teams from the West. In fact, including a 230-point affair against Houston on 11/2, the OVER is 2-0-1 on the season in their three games against Western Conference opponents. Each game produced a minimum of 230 points. Going back further finds the OVER at a profitable 38-23-2 the Nets' last 63 against teams from the West. I won with the Suns in their last game, an outright upset of Memphis. Upset victories typically lead to offensive confidence for the young Suns; the OVER is 26-13 the last 39 times that they were off a game they won outright as an underdog. Expect those stats to improve Tuesday. |
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11-06-18 | La Salle v. Temple -9 | Top | 67-75 | Loss | -112 | 26 h 15 m | Show |
I'm playing on TEMPLE (10* BEST BET). Fran Dunphy succeeded John Chaney as Temple head coach in 2006. In 12 seasons with the Owls, he's got a 247-152 record. Today's game figures to have extra special meaning to Dunphy, for a few reasons. Its his final year as head coach, he'll step aside after this game. So, this will be the last time that he plays a season opener. Additionally, its the last time that he'll face La Salle, unless the teams end up meeting in tournament play. Thats noteworthy as Dunphy graduated from La Salle. Over the years, he's gone 28-8 against his alma mater, 15-4 as a coach of the Owls. Expect him to have his team ready, the players recognizing the significance of the game to their coach and pulling away for a double-digit win. |
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11-04-18 | Knicks v. Wizards -6.5 | Top | 95-108 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
I'm playing on WASHINGTON. The season may be still early but these are desperate times for the Wizards. They began the season by dropping a pair of home games, both very close losses. Next, they went 1-4 on a tough West Coast road trip. They've since returned home and got blown out by OKC. Worse, after this, they go back on the road for another three games. This team is better than its shown and the Porzingis-less Knicks are the perfect opponent to get healthy against. Wizards bounce back big. |
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11-02-18 | Thunder v. Wizards -2 | Top | 134-111 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 16 m | Show |
I'm playing on WASHINGTON. The Wizards badly need a win. Tonight, they've got both the venue and the schedule working in their favor. While Washington had last night off, OKC is off a relatively hard-fought win at Charlotte. Though I played on the Thunder in their recent win against the Clippers, they're now playing their third game in the past four days. Washington coach Scott Brooks, former coach of the Thunder, has made sure his current team takes care of business when hosting his former team. The Wizards beat the Thunder by six here last season after blowing them out by 22 here the previous season. Howard will be on a minutes restriction in returning tonight but anything extra he can provide will be a bonus. Expect the Wizards to bounce back, moving to 8-2 the past 10 times that they were off three or more consecutive losses. |
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11-01-18 | Clippers v. 76ers -4.5 | Top | 113-122 | Win | 100 | 23 h 13 m | Show |
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA (10* GAME OF WEEK). The 76'ers have gotten off to a poor start at the betting window. Those sup-par ATS results are working in our favor tonight, keeping the line lower than it easily could have been. The 76'ers have faced nothing but Eastern Conf. opposition so far. Tonight, they'll get to add to a 39-21 ATS mark the past two seasons, against teams from the West. The 76ers got blown out at Toronto last time out. They're a perfect 4-0 SU on this floor though and they're also 27-16-1 ATS the last 44 times that they were off a double-digit loss. More? With an O/U line in the high 220s, note that the 76'ers are a lucrative 25-11 ATS the past 36 times that they played a home game with an O/U line of 220 or greater. Expect them to improve on those stats here. |
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10-31-18 | Mavs v. Lakers UNDER 235 | Top | 113-114 | Win | 100 | 14 h 22 m | Show |
I'm playing Dallas/LA to finish UNDER the total (10* BLUE CHIP). While its true that Lebron's Lakers like to play an up-tempo game, I feel that this number will prove to be too high. The Mavs only average 104.7 ppg on the road, hitting 43.4% of their field goals. Off three straight 'overs,' note that Dallas has seen the UNDER go 8-2 the past 10 times that it was off three or more consecutive games which finished above the number. The Mavs' last visit here has an O/U line of 217.5 but the game finished with a final score of 103-93. Obviously, much has changed for the Lakers since that game, last March. However, we can still look for this one to be lower-scoring than most will be expecting. |
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10-30-18 | Clippers v. Thunder -2.5 | Top | 110-128 | Win | 100 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
I'm playing on OKC (10* PERS FAV). I won with the Clippers when these teams faced each other, at LA, on 10/19. Not only were the Thunder playing on the road, they were without Westbrook. The Thunder are back home now though and Westbrook now has a few games under his belt. I expect their best effort tonight and feel that the line is very reasonable. The Thunder have dominated the Clippers here in recent seasons, including 8-point and 9-point wins last season. Playing with 'recent revenge,' expect more of the same tonight. |
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10-29-18 | Lakers v. Wolves | Top | 120-124 | Win | 100 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
I'm playing on MINNESOTA (10* MAIN EVENT). Neither team has gotten off to the start it was hoping for. Both will be hungry for a win tonight. Knowing that they'll face Utah next, followed by a difficult 5-game road trip, which begins at Golden State and Portland and which includes these same Lakers, I expect the T-Wolves sense or urgency to be a little greater. Playing on their home floor, the Wolves got blown out last time. However, they're still 2-1 here, now 53-34 the past 2+ seasons. The Lakers, on the other hand, have 1-2 on the road, the lone win coming at Phoenix. The Wolves had plenty of success against the Lakers prior to Lebron's arrival. Expect them to continue that success for at least one more night. |
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10-28-18 | Wizards +3.5 v. Clippers | Top | 104-136 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 50 m | Show |
I'm playing on WASHINGTON (10* BEST BET). The Wizards started out the trip with a win at Portland, proving that they're capable of winning at a more difficult venue than this one. They got blown out at Golden State, which wasn't a surprise. Perhaps still feeling the effects of that loss, they also lost at Sacramento. Now, off b2b losses and just 1-4 to start the season, they're going to be extremely hungry tonight. The Wizards played the Clippers tough last season; they won by nine at Washington and lost by just one here at LA. With an O/U line currently at 228 or 229, the pace figures to favor the Wizards. The Clippers are 9-14 ATS (11-12 SU) the last 23 times that they played a home game with an O/U line of 220 or greater. During the same stretch, the Wizards were 12-7 SU/ATS when playing a road game with an O/U line of 220 or greater. I'll grab the points but am expecting an upset. |
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10-26-18 | Bulls v. Hornets -9.5 | Top | 106-135 | Win | 100 | 27 h 6 m | Show |
I'm playing on CHARLOTTE (10* GAME OF MONTH). These teams just faced each other, at Chicago, on Wednesday. Playing on their home floor, the Bulls were able to eke out a 2-point win. All is not currently well in Chicago, however, as the team is dealing with some key injuries. Markkenen, Dunn and Valentine are all very important for this team and all remain out. The Bulls were able to overcome those injuries at home. On the road, against a determined revenge-minded opponent, is going to prove a different story.Now, Portis is also out. That leaves them extremely thin in the frontcourt. Parker will be expected to do a lot but he's not 100% healthy himeself and is hardly up to the task. Hutchinson not likely to cut it either. At 2-3, Charlotte coach James Borrego knows his team can ill afford another loss here. Off Wednesday's loss, Borrego commented: "My tendency right now is to go make changes all over the place. But we've got to stay disciplined, we've got to stay poised." The Hornets have had real trouble at Chicago. They beat the Bulls by 15 the last meeting here though. Expect Borrego's team to "stay poised" en route to another double-digit blowout win. |
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10-24-18 | Mavs v. Hawks +2 | Top | 104-111 | Win | 100 | 27 h 33 m | Show |
I'm playing on ATLANTA (10* MAIN EVENT). The Hawks opened the season with three straight road games. They lost the first two, badly. However, they closed the trip with a blowout win at Cleveland, which gives them some positive momentum coming into their home opener. The Hawks have had the past two days off and they also get the next two days off. The Mavs lost their lone road game, at Phoenix, by 21 points. They're without Nowitzki and they'll also be without Harrison Barnes, a significant blow. Additionally, Devin Harris is expected to remain out. Meanwhile, the Hawks are expecting to have Dedmon in the lineup for the first time this season. Even if his minutes are limited, as they'll likely be, he adds depth in the paint to complent Len. The Hawks have owned the Mavs over the past five years including another sweep last season. More of the same Wednesday. |
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10-22-18 | Suns v. Warriors -12.5 | Top | 103-123 | Win | 100 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
I'm playing on GS (10* VIOLATOR). Off last night's loss, the champs are going to be in an angry mood tonight. The young Suns are the perfect opponent to take their anger out on. The Warriors have won all eight meetings against the Suns the past couple of seasons. A look at last season's four games, all played in 2018, shows that all four resulted in double-digit victories. The Warriors won the two games at Oakland by an average of 28 points. (Including those victories, the Warriors are 47-3 SU the last 50 times that they were home favorites of -12.5 or more.) Note that they were laying -15 and -16 for those games and that we're getting a better line to work with, due to the b2b spot. With the champs looking to flex their muscles with a statement bounceback win, I'm expecting this one to be one-sided the entire way. |
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10-21-18 | Hawks v. Cavs UNDER 229.5 | Top | 133-111 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 37 m | Show |
I'm playing on Atlanta/Cleveland to finish UNDER the total (10* BLUE CHIP). The fact that both teams have seen their first two games finish above the total has helped by providing us with a generously high O/U number. I feel that it'll prove to be too high. Both teams had difficult road games out of the gate, against arguably superior competition. However, both will view this as a winnable game, one they're each going to want. I expect that to lead to more defensive intensity than either team has provided thus far. The Hawks have seen the UNDER go 44-29-2 the last 75 times that they faced a team with a sub-500 record. They've also seen the UNDER go 11-5-1 the past 17 times that the O/U line was listed at 220 or greater. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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10-20-18 | Raptors v. Wizards +1 | Top | 117-113 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
I'm playing on WASHINGTON (10* BEST BET). Off a 1-point loss in their opener, knowing that they embark on a tough 5-game road trip out West immediately following this game and facing the team which eliminated them from last season's playoffs, the Wizards are going to be extremely motivated to win this one. In addition to having the venue in their favor, they've got the schedule working for them. While the Wizards had yesterday off, the Raptors are off a hard-fought win over the Celtics last night and are now playing their third game in four days. Even with the loss in the opener, the Wizards are 61-31 on this floor the past couple of seasons. Expect them to improve on those stats this evening. |
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10-19-18 | Thunder v. Clippers -105 | Top | 92-108 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
I'm playing on the LA CLIPPERS (10* BEST BET). It may be a fairly long season for Clipper fans. That said, this is a game that they can and need to win. The Clippers host Houston next and then play a number of road games, including a rematch against these same Thunder. In other words, if they don't pick up a win tonight, it may be awhile before the home faithful are rewarded with one. Though still capable, needless to say, the Thunder are far more beatable without Westbrook (listed as doubtful at time of writing) in the lineup. It should be noted that Rivers said this of Westbrook: "We're just preparing for West. We have inside sources. I'm breaking it now West is going to play." Whether or not Rivers' prediction proves accurate, expect his team to rise to the occasion and finish on top. |
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10-17-18 | Grizzlies v. Pacers -6.5 | Top | 83-111 | Win | 100 | 32 h 13 m | Show |
I'm playing on INDIANA (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Pacers were a combined 58-29 here the past two seasons, 29-15 last year. The Grizzlies, on the other hand, were a combined 25-60 on the road, a dismal 6-35 last year. Given that the Pacers are projected to win about 47.5 games this season, compared to 34.5 for Memphis, this line could easily be higher. While both games were close, the Pacers swept the Grizzlies last season. Expect them to finish on top once again, covering the relatively small number along the way. |
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06-08-18 | Warriors v. Cavs OVER 215.5 | Top | 108-85 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
'm playing on GSW/Cleveland to finish OVER the total (10* MAINE EVNET). In what will likely be Lebron's last game ever (as a Cavalier) in Cleveland, I don't expect the Cavs to go down without a fight. Note that the OVER is 10-3 the past 13 times that they were off three or more consecutive losses. They should put up a big offensive number. Stopping the Warriors is an entirely different matter, however. If Curry doesn't miss each of his first nine 3-point attempts, Game 3 would have finished above the number. Warrior road games still average greater than 220 points. I expect tonight's final combined score to exceed that number. |
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06-06-18 | Warriors v. Cavs OVER 216.5 | Top | 110-102 | Loss | -103 | 14 h 11 m | Show |
I'm playing on GSW/Cleveland to finish OVER the total (10* FINAL TOTAL OF YEAR). After each of the first two games finished above the total, there will be a natural tendency (for some) to want to zig zag and come back with the 'under' for Game 3. However, the results from the first two games haven't caused tonight's O/U line to climb and I believe that that number will again prove to be too low. Back home, the Cavs should be able to put up a fairly big number. Preventing the Warriors from doing the same figures to prove more challenging. After the Warriors followed up a 124-point performance in Game 1 by scoring 122 in Game 2, the Cavs have now seen the OVER go 40-18 the past 2+ seasons, after allowing 115 or more points in their previous game. That includes an 18-8 OVER mark their last 26 in that situation. In other words, after allowing a lot of points, they typically just try and "score more." GS road games average more than 220 points while Cleveland home games average more than 218. The Warriors last visit here had an O/U line of 234. All things considered, this number could easily be higher, too. |
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06-03-18 | Cavs v. Warriors -11.5 | Top | 103-122 | Win | 100 | 49 h 39 m | Show |
I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE (10* GAME OF MONTH). Many will look at how close the Cavs came in Game 1 and be quick to grab the points. However, I'm not one of them. Instead, I expect the Warriors to deliver a blowout. The Cavs had their chance in Game 1. Fair or not, the over-turned offensive foul call was a killer. Likewise, JR Smith running the ball out, killed their chances of a game winning shot. To come so close to scoring a huge upset, only to lose in that fashion, is going to be very hard to bounce back from. While I did win with them in Game 7 at Boston, note that the Cavs have now won just one of their past five road games. Meanwhile, the Warriors have had their wake-up call. When firing on all cylinders and playing on this floor, they're nearly unstoppable. Expect a decisive victory. *June GOM |
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05-31-18 | Cavs v. Warriors OVER 214 | Top | 114-124 | Win | 100 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
I'm playing on Golden State/Cleveland to finish OVER the total (10* MAIN EVENT). With the Warriors on an "under" streak, we're getting a very low O/U line to work with. I believe it'll prove to be too low. To provide some perspective, note that the most recent meeting between these teams had an O/U line of 233.5. While Cleveland road games average greater than 216 points, Golden State home games average greater than 217. Five of the last six meetings between these teams have finished with greater than 225 combined points. Look for the OVER to improve to 10-5 the last 15 times that the Warriors were favored by greater than a dozen points. |
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05-27-18 | Cavs +3 v. Celtics | Top | 87-79 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
I'm playing on CLEVELAND (10* MAIN EVENT). Obviously, homecourt has been extremely significant in this series. That said, with everything on the line, I'm going with the game's best player. We're even getting a few points to boot. Note that the Cavs are 15-10-1 ATS in the underdog role. Expect Lebron to do his thing, getting enough help from the supporting cast to punch his ticket to another finals. |
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05-26-18 | Rockets v. Warriors OVER 212 | Top | 86-115 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
I'm playing on GSW/Houston OVER the total (10* BEST BET). This O/U line has come down significantly from the O/U lines at the beginning of the series. I believe that it'll prove to be too low. Including the 232 point affair in Game 2 of this series, the Warriors have seen the OVER go 6-3 when coming off three consecutive games which stayed below the total. As for the Rockets, they've seen the OVER go 8-4 the last dozen times that they were leading in a playoff series. Games here are still averaging 217.4 points; I expect tonight's final combined score to exceed that average. |
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05-25-18 | Celtics v. Cavs -6.5 | Top | 99-109 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
I'm playing on CLEVELAND (10* MAIN EVENT). I'm not writing Lebron and co. off yet. Homecourt has been huge in this series and the Cavs have now won their last three games here by 74 combined points. The Cavs are 3-2 ATS (4-1 SU) when trailing in a series. Going back further finds them at 23-15 AT their last 38 in that situation. Expect this series to go the distance, the Cavs covering on their home floor, once again. |
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05-24-18 | Warriors v. Rockets OVER 219.5 | Top | 94-98 | Loss | -108 | 26 h 26 m | Show |
I'm playing on GSW/HOU to finish OVER the total (10* TOTAL OF WEEK). After a low-scoring Game 4, we're now working with the lowest O/U line of the series. I believe it'll prove to be too low. Not only do the Rockets score more points at home than they do on the road, but they also allow more at home. Meanwhile, the Warriors score nearly an identical number of points at home and on the road BUT allow considerably more points on the road than they do at home. They entered Tuesday's game allowing 104.5 ppg at home but they enter tonight's game allowing 109.1 on the road. The last game (Game 2) here had an O/U line of 225 and produced 232 combined points. Look for the offense to return, the OVER improving to 14-8 the past 22 times that the Warriors were off an upset loss. |
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05-23-18 | Cavs +1.5 v. Celtics | Top | 83-96 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
I'm playing on CLEVELAND (10* BEST BET). Homecourt has obviously been very significant in this series, thus far. However, I believe that changes tonight. The Cavs have major momentum and confidence on their side and I don't see them losing another game in this series. With Lebron doing his thing, look for Cleveland, 15-9-1 ATS its last 25 as an underdog, to grab control of the series. |
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05-22-18 | Rockets v. Warriors OVER 224.5 | Top | 95-92 | Loss | -102 | 14 h 3 m | Show |
I'm playing on Houston/Golden State to finish OVER the total (10* BLUE CHIP TOTAL). The Warriors scored 126 points but the Rockets managed a mere 85. That kept the final score of Game 3 beneath the posted total. I expect the Rockets to bounce back with a better full 4-quarter effort here though and for BOTH teams to hit well into the triple-digits. Note that the Rockets responded by scoring 127 points after their Game 1 loss. Over the past 2+ seasons, the Rockets have only been held to 85 points or less seven times. The OVER was 5-2 in the following game. During the same span, the OVER was also 13-4 when the Warriors had held their previous opponent to 85 or fewer points. Expect those stats to improve this evening. |
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05-21-18 | Celtics v. Cavs OVER 206.5 | Top | 102-111 | Win | 100 | 23 h 22 m | Show |
I'm playing on Boston/Cleveland to finish OVER the total (10* BLUE CHIP TOTAL). As you're probably aware, the first three games of this series have all fallen below the total. In each case, the losing team failed to reach the 95-point mark, leading to the low final score. However, I'm expecting things to change in Game 4. Keep in mind that Cleveland home games are still averaging 218.8 points. While the Cavs have seen the OVER go 9-6 after three or more consecutive 'unders,' the Celtics have seen the OVER go 5-1 when in the same situation. Expect those stats to improve Monday night. |
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Ben Burns Basketball Top Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
01-09-19 | Bulls v. Blazers OVER 205 | Top | 112-124 | Win | 100 | 29 h 18 m | Show |
01-09-19 | CS-Northridge v. UC Riverside +1 | Top | 84-83 | Push | 0 | 17 h 38 m | Show |
01-07-19 | Spurs v. Pistons +3.5 | Top | 119-107 | Loss | -109 | 21 h 14 m | Show |
01-06-19 | Nets v. Bulls +2.5 | Top | 117-100 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
01-05-19 | Jazz v. Pistons +2.5 | Top | 110-105 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
01-04-19 | Thunder v. Blazers OVER 223 | Top | 111-109 | Loss | -115 | 30 h 15 m | Show |
01-03-19 | Rockets v. Warriors -8 | Top | 135-134 | Loss | -106 | 14 h 0 m | Show |
01-03-19 | NC State v. Miami-FL +3.5 | Top | 87-82 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
01-01-19 | CS-Fullerton v. Washington OVER 136 | Top | 76-84 | Win | 100 | 25 h 1 m | Show |
01-01-19 | Pistons v. Bucks OVER 218 | Top | 98-121 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
12-31-18 | Warriors v. Suns OVER 226.5 | Top | 132-109 | Win | 100 | 14 h 45 m | Show |
12-31-18 | Magic v. Hornets -7 | Top | 100-125 | Win | 100 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
12-31-18 | Idaho State v. Eastern Washington -140 | Top | 55-65 | Win | 100 | 7 h 55 m | Show |
12-29-18 | Warriors v. Blazers OVER 224 | Top | 115-105 | Loss | -107 | 16 h 49 m | Show |
12-28-18 | UC-Davis +10 v. Loyola Marymount | Top | 59-77 | Loss | -105 | 33 h 30 m | Show |
12-27-18 | Celtics v. Rockets UNDER 217 | Top | 113-127 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
12-26-18 | Suns v. Magic -4 | Top | 122-120 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 40 m | Show |
12-25-18 | Lakers v. Warriors -8.5 | Top | 127-101 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 24 m | Show |
12-23-18 | Mavs v. Blazers -7 | Top | 118-121 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 10 m | Show |
12-22-18 | Raptors v. 76ers -4.5 | Top | 101-126 | Win | 100 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
12-22-18 | Ohio State v. UCLA +5.5 | Top | 80-66 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 30 m | Show |
12-21-18 | Pacers v. Nets OVER 211 | Top | 114-106 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
12-20-18 | Rockets v. Heat +3.5 | Top | 99-101 | Win | 100 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
12-20-18 | Northern Illinois v. Northern Kentucky -5.5 | Top | 62-65 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
12-19-18 | Montana +9 v. Arizona | Top | 42-61 | Loss | -108 | 26 h 58 m | Show |
12-18-18 | Cavs v. Pacers OVER 207 | Top | 92-91 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
12-17-18 | Kings v. Wolves -8 | Top | 105-132 | Win | 100 | 27 h 53 m | Show |
12-15-18 | Wolves v. Suns OVER 214 | Top | 99-107 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
12-14-18 | Raptors v. Blazers +3.5 | Top | 122-128 | Win | 100 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
12-14-18 | Florida Atlantic v. Arkansas State -123 | Top | 71-75 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
12-14-18 | Wizards v. Nets OVER 225 | Top | 118-125 | Win | 100 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
12-13-18 | Eastern Washington v. San Francisco -18 | Top | 63-85 | Win | 100 | 16 h 59 m | Show |
12-12-18 | Raptors v. Warriors -6.5 | Top | 113-93 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
12-12-18 | Murray State v. Southern Illinois -3 | Top | 80-52 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
12-11-18 | Blazers v. Rockets OVER 219.5 | Top | 103-111 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
12-10-18 | CS-Fullerton +12.5 v. St. Mary's | Top | 66-81 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 2 m | Show |
12-10-18 | Kings v. Bulls +2.5 | Top | 108-89 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 33 m | Show |
12-08-18 | Nuggets v. Hawks +7.5 | Top | 98-106 | Win | 100 | 26 h 6 m | Show |
12-07-18 | Grizzlies v. Pelicans -4.5 | Top | 107-103 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 60 m | Show |
12-07-18 | NC-Greensboro v. Elon +12.5 | Top | 75-74 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
12-05-18 | Utah State v. BYU | Top | 80-95 | Win | 100 | 26 h 43 m | Show |
12-05-18 | Thunder v. Nets +7.5 | Top | 114-112 | Win | 100 | 28 h 54 m | Show |
12-03-18 | Rockets v. Wolves +2 | Top | 91-103 | Win | 100 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
12-02-18 | Jazz v. Heat +4 | Top | 100-102 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
12-01-18 | Nets v. Wizards -5 | Top | 88-102 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
11-29-18 | Clippers v. Kings +3 | Top | 133-121 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 30 m | Show |
11-29-18 | Alabama +7 v. UCF | Top | 64-70 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
11-28-18 | Monmouth v. Kentucky -24 | Top | 44-90 | Win | 100 | 26 h 7 m | Show |
11-28-18 | Spurs v. Wolves OVER 217.5 | Top | 89-128 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 12 m | Show |
11-27-18 | East Tennessee State v. Georgia Southern -4 | Top | 69-64 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
11-26-18 | Magic v. Warriors -8 | Top | 110-116 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 8 m | Show |
11-25-18 | Clippers v. Blazers -4 | Top | 104-100 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
11-25-18 | IUPU Ft Wayne v. Cleveland State +4.5 | Top | 82-79 | Win | 100 | 8 h 56 m | Show |
11-24-18 | Pelicans v. Wizards +2 | Top | 114-124 | Win | 100 | 26 h 50 m | Show |
11-23-18 | Rockets v. Pistons UNDER 218 | Top | 111-116 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 35 m | Show |
11-21-18 | Harvard v. San Francisco -6 | Top | 57-61 | Loss | -103 | 16 h 13 m | Show |
11-21-18 | Pelicans v. 76ers -3.5 | Top | 120-121 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 52 m | Show |
11-20-18 | Clippers v. Wizards -112 | Top | 118-125 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
11-19-18 | VCU v. Temple -2.5 | Top | 57-51 | Loss | -108 | 15 h 49 m | Show |
11-19-18 | Clippers v. Hawks +7 | Top | 127-119 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 50 m | Show |
11-17-18 | St. Louis +7.5 v. Seton Hall | Top | 66-64 | Win | 100 | 27 h 34 m | Show |
11-16-18 | Jazz v. 76ers -2.5 | Top | 107-113 | Win | 100 | 28 h 52 m | Show |
11-15-18 | Oregon v. Iowa +4 | Top | 69-77 | Win | 100 | 14 h 22 m | Show |
11-14-18 | North Dakota v. Kentucky -26 | Top | 58-96 | Win | 100 | 27 h 58 m | Show |
11-14-18 | Grizzlies v. Bucks -9.5 | Top | 116-113 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 16 m | Show |
11-13-18 | Hornets v. Cavs OVER 219 | Top | 89-113 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
11-12-18 | Louisiana-Monroe v. Texas -20 | Top | 55-65 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
11-12-18 | Magic v. Wizards -9 | Top | 109-117 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 16 m | Show |
11-10-18 | Nets v. Warriors -8 | Top | 100-116 | Win | 100 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
11-09-18 | Celtics v. Jazz -3 | Top | 115-123 | Win | 100 | 14 h 2 m | Show |
11-09-18 | Toledo v. Oakland +6 | Top | 87-86 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
11-08-18 | Celtics v. Suns +10 | Top | 116-109 | Win | 100 | 14 h 38 m | Show |
11-07-18 | Nuggets v. Grizzlies +4 | Top | 87-89 | Win | 100 | 13 h 25 m | Show |
11-06-18 | Nets v. Suns OVER 220 | Top | 104-82 | Loss | -115 | 28 h 38 m | Show |
11-06-18 | La Salle v. Temple -9 | Top | 67-75 | Loss | -112 | 26 h 15 m | Show |
11-04-18 | Knicks v. Wizards -6.5 | Top | 95-108 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
11-02-18 | Thunder v. Wizards -2 | Top | 134-111 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 16 m | Show |
11-01-18 | Clippers v. 76ers -4.5 | Top | 113-122 | Win | 100 | 23 h 13 m | Show |
10-31-18 | Mavs v. Lakers UNDER 235 | Top | 113-114 | Win | 100 | 14 h 22 m | Show |
10-30-18 | Clippers v. Thunder -2.5 | Top | 110-128 | Win | 100 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
10-29-18 | Lakers v. Wolves | Top | 120-124 | Win | 100 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
10-28-18 | Wizards +3.5 v. Clippers | Top | 104-136 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 50 m | Show |
10-26-18 | Bulls v. Hornets -9.5 | Top | 106-135 | Win | 100 | 27 h 6 m | Show |
10-24-18 | Mavs v. Hawks +2 | Top | 104-111 | Win | 100 | 27 h 33 m | Show |
10-22-18 | Suns v. Warriors -12.5 | Top | 103-123 | Win | 100 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
10-21-18 | Hawks v. Cavs UNDER 229.5 | Top | 133-111 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 37 m | Show |
10-20-18 | Raptors v. Wizards +1 | Top | 117-113 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
10-19-18 | Thunder v. Clippers -105 | Top | 92-108 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
10-17-18 | Grizzlies v. Pacers -6.5 | Top | 83-111 | Win | 100 | 32 h 13 m | Show |
06-08-18 | Warriors v. Cavs OVER 215.5 | Top | 108-85 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
06-06-18 | Warriors v. Cavs OVER 216.5 | Top | 110-102 | Loss | -103 | 14 h 11 m | Show |
06-03-18 | Cavs v. Warriors -11.5 | Top | 103-122 | Win | 100 | 49 h 39 m | Show |
05-31-18 | Cavs v. Warriors OVER 214 | Top | 114-124 | Win | 100 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
05-27-18 | Cavs +3 v. Celtics | Top | 87-79 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
05-26-18 | Rockets v. Warriors OVER 212 | Top | 86-115 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
05-25-18 | Celtics v. Cavs -6.5 | Top | 99-109 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
05-24-18 | Warriors v. Rockets OVER 219.5 | Top | 94-98 | Loss | -108 | 26 h 26 m | Show |
05-23-18 | Cavs +1.5 v. Celtics | Top | 83-96 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
05-22-18 | Rockets v. Warriors OVER 224.5 | Top | 95-92 | Loss | -102 | 14 h 3 m | Show |
05-21-18 | Celtics v. Cavs OVER 206.5 | Top | 102-111 | Win | 100 | 23 h 22 m | Show |