Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
12-19-19 | Jazz v. Hawks +6.5 | Top | 111-106 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
I'm playing on ATLANTA. The Hawks have played the Jazz tough the past couple of seasons and I expect them to give them all they can handle again this evening. Two years ago, the Hawks won 104-90 here as home underdogs. Then, getting 13.5 points, they won at Utah. Last season, the Jazz won at Utah. However, the Hawks again gave them all they could handle, here at Atlanta. Getting 7.5 points, the Hawks again won outright, a 117-114 win. The Jazz are off b2b fairly close games, winning by seven and eight points, despite hosting the Warriors and Magic. The Hawks played the Lakers tough last time on this floor, losing by five. Including that result, they're 3-1 ATS as home underdogs in the 6.5 to 12 point range. Look for them to give their guests all they can handle once again. |
|||||||
12-18-19 | Warriors v. Blazers -9 | Top | 112-122 | Win | 100 | 30 h 3 m | Show |
I'm playing on PORTLAND. At 5-23, the Warriors' season is a write-off. There's no saving it. Thats not true for the Blazers though. They may be last in their division. However, they're still 11-16 and only one good run from getting themselves back in contention. That said, this is a stretch that they need to take advantage of. Last time out, the Blazers eked out a 1-point win over the Suns. Thats the type of victory a team can build positive momentum from. Now, in a 4-game stretch before Christmas, the Blazers get home games against the Warriors, Magic, T-Wolves and Pelicans. Those are all very winnable games, tonight's being the "easiest" on paper. I believe that they're ready to tip off that stretch by blowing someone out of the building. The Blazers haven't forgotten losing at Golden State earlier or all those losses the Warriors have handed them in recent season. Tonight, they get some payback in serious blowout fashion. |
|||||||
12-18-19 | DePaul v. Cleveland State +16.5 | Top | 73-65 | Win | 100 | 25 h 51 m | Show |
I'm playing on CLEVELAND STATE. This is a big line and I believe that it will prove to be too big. The Blue Demons lost a few key seniors from last season's team, two of them 5th year seniors. Despite those losses, they've been able to get off to a strong start. However, they dropped their first game last time out and I believe that the leadership lost with those seniors will show itself here. Off that loss, its going to be tough for this young team to bounce back and cover this big a number on the road. With a Big Ten team (Northwestern) on deck, followed by Big East play, it'll be easy to look past a team like Clev. State. The Vikings have won two of their last three here though, the loss coming by 15. Keep in mind that Depaul only beat this team by 10, at Chicago, last season. Playing at Cleveland, look for the Vikings to present a much tougher challenge than many will be expecting. |
|||||||
12-17-19 | Purdue v. Ohio OVER 126 | Top | 69-51 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 24 m | Show |
I'm playing on Purdue/Ohio OVER the total. Purdue has largely been an 'under' team so far this season. Thats led to a very low O/U line for this game. I believe that it'll prove to be too low. Consider that when these teams met last season the O/U line was 147.5. Even that wasn't enough, as the teams combined for 162. The Boilermakers put up 95 in that one and should put up a relatively big number once again. While the Purdue defense is indeed stingy, its not quite as tough on the road. The Bobcats are averaging 87.5 ppg on their home floor. The OVER is 3-1 the past couple of seasons when the Boilermakers were off a road loss and 4-1 when they'd scored 25 or less in the first half of their previous game. During that span, the Bobcats have seen the OVER go 5-1 when off a home blowout win of 20 or more. Look for those stats to improve Tuesday. |
|||||||
12-16-19 | Spurs v. Rockets -10 | Top | 107-109 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 46 m | Show |
I'm playing on HOUSTON. The Spurs are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. These teams met less than two weeks ago, at San Antonio. You may recall that one as it was a double-OT thriller. The Spurs won 135-133. The Rockets certainly haven't forgotten. So, they'll have payback on their minds. Also, they got upset here by Detroit last time out. With four road games following this one, they know they need to take care of business tonight. Note that they're 31-11 SU the past 2+ seasons, off an upset loss, 15-4 SU off an upset loss at home. During that span, the Rockets were also 31-10 SU when attempting to avenge an earlier road loss. Expect the revenge-minded Rockets to improve on those stats Monday, pulling away for a double-digit win while picking up the cover along the way. |
|||||||
12-16-19 | Valparaiso v. Charlotte UNDER 136.5 | Top | 57-67 | Win | 100 | 25 h 12 m | Show |
I'm playing on Valparaiso/Charlotte UNDER the total. The 49ers have seen their last four games finish above the total. I expect that streak to come to an end this evening. A look at the 49ers' last three 'overs' shows that those games finished above the total by 1.5, 1.5 and 2.5 points. In other words, all three could have easily stayed below the total. Now, they'll host a Crusader team which as seen the UNDER go a lucrative 17-8 their last 25 as a road underdog. During that span, Valpo has also seen the UNDER go 3-1 when playing with seven or more day's rest in between games. Last time out, the Crusaders won 77-55 and the UNDER is 5-1 the past 2+ seasons when the Crusaders had scored 75 or more in three straight games. Look for this one to prove lower-scoring than most will be expecting. |
|||||||
12-15-19 | Knicks v. Nuggets OVER 205.5 | Top | 105-111 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
I'm playing on Denver/NY OVER the total. I won with the 'over' in the Nuggets' game (and the Nuggets) last night. Once again, I feel that the O/U line will prove to be too low. The Nuggets scored 129 when they faced the Knicks 10 days ago. They scored 131, 110, 130, 115 and 111 the previous five times that they faced the Knicks. This season, the Knicks are giving up an average of 113.9 ppg on the road. Once the Knicks have been away from MSG for awile, they tend to ease up on the defensive intensity a bit' the OVER is 14-6 the past 20 times that they played their previous three on the road. This is just the second time this season that the Nuggets played a home game, after playing the previous night. The first time saw their game produce 215 points. I see this one reaching at least that mark, once again. |
|||||||
12-14-19 | Gonzaga v. Arizona -2 | Top | 84-80 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
I'm playing on ARIZONA. I won with the Wildcats in their last game, mentioning that this was a very talented team. (Full excerpt below, if interested.) Laying about 20, they won by 50. While this is, of course, a far tougher opponent, I expect the Cats to carry the positive momemtum forward into this game. These teams met, at Gonzaga, last November. Playing on their homecourt, the Bulldogs blew out the Wildcats. Needless to say, Arizona hasn't forgotten. Gonzaga, 2-3 ATS the past five times it was getting points, hasn't been an underdog yet this season. This will be its toughest game. The Bulldogs will be playing the second of b2b road games; they're 0-1 ATS in that situation this season and they're 8-12 ATS their last 20 when off a road win. Lay the short number with the talented and motivated home team. Writeup from Arizona's last game: The Mavericks are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Though they haven't covered of late, this is a very talented Arizona team, arguably more so than in recent seasons. Here, the Wildcats are going to be in an angry mood, after having lost to Baylor. This team hadn't previously tasted defeat and will be looking to put the hurt on someone. the Mavericks figure to be the perfect opponent. Not only are they severely outmatched athletically and from a talent-perspective, but they're at the end their longest road stretch of the season. They've been putting on some serious travel miles and it figures to catch up and take a toll on them tonight. Look for the angry Wildcats to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way, blowing their road weary guests out of the building. |
|||||||
12-14-19 | Thunder v. Nuggets OVER 205 | Top | 102-110 | Win | 100 | 14 h 53 m | Show |
I'm playing on OKC/Denver OVER the total. The Nuggets have been a profitable 'under' team this season which has led to a very low O/U number. I believe that it'll prove to be too low. Last season's games had O/U lines of 217, 217, 238.5 and 218.5. The last three produced a minimum of 207 points, the last one here at Denver finishing with 233. Again, we're working with a much lower line tonight. This season, OKC games are averaging 214.9. Denver games have been lower-scoring but they're still averaging 207.8 and at home that number climbs to 209. Yes, the Thunder have played three straight 'unders.' However, thats also part of the reason we're working with such a low number and the OVER is already a perfect 3-0 this season when they've been in that situation. The last time they'd played three straight 'unders,' their next game finished with 266 points. Look for this one to also prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting, the final combined score finishing above the low total. |
|||||||
12-14-19 | Thunder v. Nuggets -6.5 | Top | 102-110 | Win | 100 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
I'm playing on DENVER. The Thunder have fared quite well as underdogs this season. However, they havent visited Denver yet. They lost at Sacramento by a point last time out and now they're playing the final leg of a road trip and final road game before Christmas. I believe that they're going to have trouble. The Nuggets returned home from a trip and promptly pounded Portland. They're 79-23 (SU) here the past 2+ seasons. During that stretch, they're also 27-15 SU and 26-15-1 ATS against divisional opponents, 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS this season. They dominated the Thunder last season and I expect another win and cover tonight. |
|||||||
12-14-19 | Syracuse v. Georgetown -3 | Top | 79-89 | Win | 100 | 18 h 12 m | Show |
I'm playing on GEORGETOWN. Its been a tough start at the betting window for the Hoyas, here at home. However, I expect a visit from their hated longtime rivals to bring out their best. Indeed, the bad blood between these teams goes back a long time. The Orange won by seven here two seasons ago and they won by one (as -9.5 point favorites) at Syracuse last season. This is a far less experienced Syracuse team though, providing the Hoyas with the perfect opportunity to break through with an important win and cover. The Orange, who hammered G-Tech last time out, are just 3-6 ATS the past 2+ seasons as road underdogs of six or less. During that span, they're also 0-3 SU/ATS when off a conference win of 20 or more points. The Hoyas, meanwhile, are 4-1 SU/ATS the past five times that they were off an upset win of 15 or more, as a road underdog and 2-0 SU/ATS off two or more consec. wins as a road underdog. Expect them to improve on those stats here. |
|||||||
12-13-19 | Clippers v. Wolves +5.5 | Top | 124-117 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 15 m | Show |
I'm playing on MINNESOTA. Already potentially weary from playing the 5th leg of a 6-game road trip, the Clippers may also be ripe for an emotional letdown after defeating the defending champs, at Kawhi's old stomping grounds. Either way, they're going to be facing an extremely motivated T-Wolves team. The Wolves haven't won yet this month and they're desperate to change that. Since scoring only 91 to begin their trip, the Clippers have hit at least 110 in each of their last three games. That's proven that its not necessarily a good thing; they're 0-4 ATS this season after scoring 105 or more in each of their previous three games. Look for the Wolves to bring their best effort, improving to 19-11 ATS the past 30 times that they had failed to cover their previous six games. |
|||||||
12-13-19 | Hornets v. Bulls -6 | Top | 83-73 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
I'm playing on CHICAGO. I backed the Hornets in their last game and they rewarded me with an upset win at Brooklyn. I don't think they're going to be able to do it again tonight though. Charlotte may come in with the better record but the Bulls are starting to get going and I believe that they're the superior team. Two games ago, the Bulls lost a 1-point game against Toronto, their third straight defeat of five or less. To take the champs down to the wire was still a good effort though and they followed it up with a 136-point explosion (136-102 win) against Altanta last game. They're quietly a dominant 25-9-2 ATS in December, the past 2+ seasons. They're also 7-2 ATS the past nine times that they were off a double-digit home win. Expect another one tonight. |
|||||||
12-13-19 | Colorado v. Colorado State UNDER 140 | Top | 56-48 | Win | 100 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
I'm playing on Colorado/CSU UNDER the total. These teams played a high-scoring game (86-80) against each other last season, at Colorado. A closer look shows that it really wasn't that high-scoring until they got a ton of points in the final minutes. They were still at 70-59 with six minutes to go. The previous season, here at Colorado State, the game was lower-scoring; the rivals combining for 135 points. I'm expecting another relatively low-scoring affair this evening. The Rams have only managed 57, 64 and 72 points their last three. Now, they'll face a Colorado team which allows just 60.6 ppg. The Buffaloes need to be good defensively as they only average 68.6 ppg and that number dips to 66.5 on the road. Including the previously mentioned game here two seasons ago, the UNDER is 19-8 the Buffs last 27 road games. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. |
|||||||
12-12-19 | Iowa v. Iowa State UNDER 157.5 | Top | 84-68 | Win | 100 | 14 h 33 m | Show |
I'm playing on Iowa/Iowa State UNDER the total. I won with the 'under' in the Cyclones' last game and I feel that tonight's O/U line will again prove to be too high. This is a more defensive Iowa State team than the Hawkeyes will remember from last season, yet we're working with a higher number than these teams had for last year, or the year before. The Cyclones have allowed 66 and 61 their last two games and they've seen the UNDER go 3-1-1 at home on the season. They've only hit the 80-point mark once on offense in their past eight games. As for the Hawkeyes, they held Minnesota to a mere 52 points last time out, the final score staying below the total by more than 20 points. They've now seen five of their last seven stay beneath the number. The Under has been money over the years when Iowa was off a Big Ten win of 20 or more. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. |
|||||||
12-11-19 | Hawks v. Bulls OVER 221.5 | Top | 102-136 | Win | 100 | 14 h 32 m | Show |
I'm playing on Chicago/Atlanta OVER the total. The Hawks went to OT last night, giving up 135 points when the smoke cleared. Knowing that fatigue could be a factor, the Bulls will look to push the pace tonight. Consider that the Hawks give up the fourth most points in the NBA, Chicago should put up a fairly big number. The Hawks should do the same though. They average 109 ppg and they score a little more on the road than they do at home. With the 121 they scored last night, they've now hit triple-digits in 17 straight games, 118 or more in each of their last three. They haven't forgotten a 113-93 loss, at Atlanta, to these same Bulls and will be coming in looking for payback. That 93 point effort was the last time they were held to double-digits and they've obviously been scoring a lot more since. Yet this O/U line is the same, roughly, as that one. Atlanta road games have been finishing above the total all season and that continues here. |
|||||||
12-11-19 | Nebraska-Omaha v. Arizona -19 | Top | 49-99 | Win | 100 | 23 h 48 m | Show |
I'm playing on ARIZONA. The Mavericks are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Though they haven't covered of late, this is a very talented Arizona team, arguably more so than in recent seasons. Here, the Wildcats are going to be in an angry mood, after having lost to Baylor. This team hadn't previously tasted defeat and will be looking to put the hurt on someone. the Mavericks figure to be the perfect opponent. Not only are they severely outmatched athletically and from a talent-perspective, but they're at the end their longest road stretch of the season. They've been putting on some serious travel miles and it figures to catch up and take a toll on them tonight. Look for the angry Wildcats to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way, blowing their road weary guests out of the building. |
|||||||
12-10-19 | Knicks v. Blazers -9 | Top | 87-115 | Win | 100 | 15 h 43 m | Show |
I'm playing on PORTLAND. The Knicks are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Off the home loss against OKC, which was preceded by a loss to the Lakers, the Blazers are going to be in an angry mood. They only previous time they lost a home game to a divisional opponent this season they bounced back with a double-digit win (and cover) in their next game. The Blazers were laying -11.5 when the Knicks played here last season and won by 10. We're working with a lower line tonight but I expect a bigger margin of victory. (The previous season, they were laying -9.5 but won by 24.) Portland knows that NY is 1-9 away from MSG and it knows it has road games at Denver and Phoenix on deck. In other words, the Blazers need to take care of business here. They will. |
|||||||
12-10-19 | Coppin State v. Davidson -17.5 | Top | 52-88 | Win | 100 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
I'm playing on DAVIDSON. I mentioned when I backed them last time that the Wildcats are better than their record indicates. Indeed, this is a very strong and experienced team. I've done well in picking my spots with the Wildcats and I believe they're going to lay a beating on this overmatched opponent. While the Wildcats are a very experienced team, the Eagles are a very inexperienced one. They brought back only one starter and only four players appeared in more than 12 games. Indeed, this is a mismatch and with tougher games on deck, Davidson will look to continue to build positive momentum by keeping the pedal to the metal the entire way. Expect a blowout. |
|||||||
12-09-19 | Minnesota +6.5 v. Iowa | Top | 52-72 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
I'm playing on MINNESOTA. After a slow start out of the gate, the Gophers are playing much better basketball than they were to start the season. A 78-60 win over Clemson last time out brought them to 3-1 SU their last four and 4-1 ATS their last five. Its important to note that their four losses this season all came by single digits, the last two by five or less. Speaking of close games, the last two meetings between these teams were both decided by five or less. The Gophers won 92-87 last January and 86-82 the previous February. While the Gophers are well-rested, the Hawkeyes have been playing a lot of basketball lately. Having played three straight away from home, losing two of them and dealing with some bumps and bruises, the tough schedule could be taking a toll. Expect the Gophers to give them all they can handle, en route to AT LEAST the ATS win. |
|||||||
12-08-19 | Seton Hall v. Iowa State UNDER 156 | Top | 66-76 | Win | 100 | 27 h 3 m | Show |
I'm playing on Seton Hall / Iowa State to finish UNDER the total. These teams met less than two weeks ago at the Battle for Atlantis. Behind a big game from Myles Powell, the Pirates won 84-76. That high score has led to a higher O/U number for Sunday's rematch. I believe it'll prove to be too high. The Cyclones have had a first hand look at Powell now and I expect them to be more ready for him. As coach Steve Prohm noted: "We've got to be locked in on him at all times …" The entire Cyclone team will be ready for him and will be doing their best to keep the ball out of his hands, and as senior Prentiss Nixon noted, to "make the game as physical as possible." Prohm, who emphasized and preached improved defense in the offseason added: "We're going to have a new plan …" Look for the Cyclones' "new plan" to lead to a lower-scoring rematch, the final combined score staying beneath the generously high number. |
|||||||
12-08-19 | Raptors v. 76ers -3 | Top | 104-110 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. The 76ers continue to treat me well. Yesterday, I won with the 'over' in their game against the Cavs. In their previous game, I successfully played against them when they lost at Washington. The game before that? I successfully backed them when they beat Utah. You get the idea. Today, its a rematch against the hated Raptors, the team that knocked them out of the playoffs last year and which probably prevented them from being champions. The Ratpors won this season's first meeting (I won with the 'under' in that one) but that was at Toronto, while this one's at Philly. Thats a pretty significant difference, given that the 76ers are 5-7 on the road but 9-0 here at home. Needless to say, the 76ers are going to be extremely motivated. They're 32-10 SU as home favorites of six or fewer points the past 2+ seasons and that includes a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS mark this season. Yesterday's game was such a blowout and it was here at home, that its not really a factor. Yet, it has helped in keeping the line a bit lower than it could have otherwise been. I say the 76ers finally get a little payback. |
|||||||
12-07-19 | Cavs v. 76ers OVER 213 | Top | 94-141 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
I'm playing on Philadelphia/Cleveland OVER the total. Catching the Cavs in a back-to-back spot and knowing they've got tougher games to follow, I expect the 76ers to put up a big number in this one. They've been letting teams hang around and come back in games though, so the Cavs figure to do some scoring of their own. Enough, at least, to complement the 76ers' scoring and send this one above the low number. The Cavs have played two games in two nights twice previously. Those games had scores of 228 and 214, the Cavs scoring 110 and 105. Yesterday's loss was their fifth straight and the OVER is 12-7-1 the last 20 times that the Cavs were off five or more consecutive losses. Expect those stats to improve here. |
|||||||
12-07-19 | Davidson v. Northeastern | Top | 70-63 | Win | 100 | 22 h 43 m | Show |
I'm playing on DAVIDSON. The Huskies are a mostly experienced and well-coached team. However, they've played a fairly soft schedule thus far and therefore the loss of their leader (Pusica) hasn't really caught up with. Davidson, has played a much tougher schedule and is a far stronger team that its record shows. I believe the Wildcats, also experienced and well-coached, have a considerable edge in talent. Yet, due to the records (and venue) we're not having to lay a big number with the superior team. Expect the cream to rise to the top, talented and determined Davidson getting it done. |
|||||||
12-06-19 | Warriors v. Bulls OVER 212.5 | Top | 100-98 | Loss | -100 | 26 h 46 m | Show |
I'm playing on Golden State/Chicago OVER the total. These teams have both been involved in some recent 'unders' and thats led to this O/U line being a little lower than it otherwise could have been. I believe that it'll prove to be too low. Consider that the O/U line was 228 the last time the Warriors played here. Yes, much has changed, clearly. Still, I feel this number is low. That game, by the way, produced 273 points. This season, Chicago home games are averaging 214.1 points while Golden State road games are averaging 219.2. The OVER is 3-1 when the Bulls were home favorites, 2-0 when they were home favorites of six or less. The Bulls lost as road favorites, when these teams met in the Bay area a little over a week ago. Thats noteworthy as the OVER is a perfect 3-0 the past couple of seasons, when the Bulls attempted to avenge an earlier road loss, in a game where they were favored. With two teams both with losing records from opposite conferences, both thinking they can win this game, look for a relatively high-scoring affair, enough to finish comfortably above the low number. |
|||||||
12-05-19 | Louisiana Tech +8.5 v. Mississippi State | Top | 74-67 | Win | 100 | 8 h 3 m | Show |
I'm playing on LA TECH. Its another "all Bulldog" matchup here. Once again, I'm going with the Bulldogs from LA Tech. Some will recall that I backed LA Tech against the Samford Bulldogs last time out. LA Tech won by 22, covering by double-digits. Off that win, confidence will be sky high. Other than Villanova, which beat Miss. State, this is the toughest team, in my opinion, that Miss. State will have faced. While Miss. State is a good team, I feel it could get caught looking ahead to a big game at K-State, next up on its schedule. Note that LA Tech is 2-0 ATS against the SEC the past couple of seasons while MSU is 0-2 ATS against Conf. USA. I mentioned in the win over Samford that LA Tech brought back four starters from last season. An experienced team, look for them to give their hosts a tougher game than most will be expecting. |
|||||||
12-05-19 | 76ers v. Wizards +7.5 | Top | 113-119 | Win | 100 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
I'm playing on WASHINGTON. I won with the 76ers in their last game. However, that was at home and they were laying less points than they are now. That 9-point win against Utah notwithstanding, the 76ers have been playing a lot of very close games lately. Their previous four games were all decided by six or fewer points. So, thats five straight decided by single-digits. That makes covering this kind of number on the road tough. The Wizards are going to be desperate. They're 16-8-1 ATS their last 25 as home underdogs. In what should be another close one, grab the points and look for the Wizards to improve to 13-5 ATS the last 18 times that they played a home game where the O/U line was 230 or greater. |
|||||||
12-04-19 | Ohio State v. North Carolina -2.5 | Top | 74-49 | Loss | -108 | 25 h 58 m | Show |
I'm playing on UNC. The Buckeyes are off to a great start. However, they're playing at a very difficult venue and I expect the talented Tar Heels to bring them down to earth this evening. The Buckeyes are just 2-5 SU/ATS the past 2+ seasons as road underdogs of six or fewer points. During that span, the Heels are 4-1 SU/ATS as home favorites of six or less. While the Buckeyes scored 90 points last time out, it should be kept in mind that the opponent was Morgan State. Also, they're just 8-13 ATS the past couple of seasons, after scoring 80 or more points in their previous game. Expect homecourt to prove the difference, the ACC getting the better of the Big Ten in this one. |
|||||||
12-04-19 | Lakers v. Jazz -2 | Top | 121-96 | Loss | -115 | 27 h 35 m | Show |
I'm playing on UTAH. I successfully played against the Jazz in their last game. However, that was on the road, at a venue where visiting teams were 0-9 and the Jazz were at a scheduling disadvantage. They were also facing a 76ers team which was determined to avenge an earlier close loss. The shoe is completely on the other foot here though. This time, the Jazz are at home. This time, the Jazz are rested and facing a Laker team which played last night in the altitude of Denver. This time, the Jazz are the ones playing with revenge from an earlier loss. While their starts weren't very good, I liked the effort/heart the Jazz showed in each of their last two losses. They fell behind big in both cases but didn't quit either time. They're 11-4 ATS (12-3 ATS) their last 15, off b2b road losses. Expect them to bounce back and improve on those stats Wednesday night. |
|||||||
12-04-19 | Lakers v. Jazz OVER 209 | Top | 121-96 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
I'm playing on LA/Utah OVER the total. The Lakers have been on an 'under' streak of late which has helped to keep this line lower than it could have otherwise been. I believe that it'll prove to be too low. With the Lakers off a game in Denver's high altitude last night, the Jazz should be looking to push the pace. The Lakers' last visit here produced 215 points. On the season, games here are producing 213.8 points (higher than their road games) and LA road games are producing 222.7 points, considerably more than their road games. The Jazz, who have averaged more than 120 ppg their last two at home, have already seen the OVER go 2-0 as home favorites of six or fewer points. Expect those stats to improve. |
|||||||
12-03-19 | Valparaiso v. Eastern Michigan -2 | Top | 79-85 | Win | 100 | 20 h 18 m | Show |
I'm playing on EASTERN MICHIGAN. The Eagles struggled last time out. Now at home, facing a Valparaiso team I feel they match up well against, I expect them to bounce back. While they only managed 56 points last time out, note that the Eagles are 10-4 ATS, the past couple of seasons, after having scored 60 or fewer points in their previous game. A closer look shows that they're 3-0 SU/ATS after having scored 60 or less in b2b games. They've also responded well to double-digit losses, going 11-5 (9-5 ATS) in that situation the past couple of seasons. While the Crusaders have fared well when they don't turn the ball over, they're 0-3 when turning the ball over more than 14 times. (The Eagles force an average of 21.4 turnovers.) The Crusaders are just 3-7-2 ATS (2-10 SU) the past 2+ seasons as road underdogs of six or fewer points. Lay the small number. |
|||||||
12-02-19 | Bulls v. Kings OVER 211 | Top | 113-106 | Win | 100 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
I'm playing on Chicago/Sacramento OVER the total. The last time that the Bulls played here, the O/U line was 231. (The teams combined for exactly that many points.) Tonight, however, we're working with a much lower O/U number. I believe that it'll prove to be too low. Sacramento has played higher-scoring games against teams from the East; the Kings have seen games against Western Conf. opponents average 214.7 points. Facing a Chicago team which allows more than 110 ppg on the road, the Kings figure to put up a fairly big number here. The Bulls aren't just going to go away though. They're at the end of a mini Western Conf. road trip and they'd badly like something to show for it. Yes, the Bulls' last three have finished below the total. Thats worked in our favor though by keeping the number a little lower than it otherwise could have been. The only previous time that happened this season, the Bulls' next game finished above the total by double-digits. The Kings have been a profitable 'over' team when listed as favorites and that continues tonight. |
|||||||
12-02-19 | Clemson v. Minnesota OVER 131 | Top | 60-78 | Win | 100 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
I'm playing on Clemson/Minnesota OVER the total. The Gophers have been an 'under' team this season which has led to a low number. I believe it'll prove to be too low. The Gophers are small favorites in this one, -3 at most shops, as of this writing. Thats noteworthy as the OVER is 7-1 the past eight times that they were home favorites (or pick'em) of six or fewer points. Last time out, listed as -4 point favorites, the Gophers lost 73-68 against Depaul. The Tigers have seen four of their last five games produce a minimum of 138 points. I believe this one will too. Look for the OVER to improve to 8-2 the past 10 times that they played with five or six day's rest in between games. |
|||||||
12-02-19 | Jazz v. 76ers -5 | Top | 94-103 | Win | 100 | 27 h 45 m | Show |
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. The Jazz eked out a win when these teams met at Salt Lake City earlier. With this evening's rematch being played at Philadelphia and aided by a scheduling advantage, the 76ers should get some payback this evening. While the 76ers had Sunday off, the Jazz got blown out by the defending champs, at Toronto. They were crushed right out of the gate and there was a worry that the starters might get pulled. That didn't happen though as Mitchell still played more than 30 minutes, Bogdanovich 29+, Gobert more than 28 etc. While the Jazz have had a few b2b situations this season, they've been fortunate that they got to play them at home against weaker teams, New Orleans, Brooklyn, Sacramento etc. Now, however, they're on the road against one of the best in the East, a rested and revenge-minded Philly team. With a 9-0 record on this floor, the 76ers outscore visiting teams by an average of 109.9 to 99.1. The Jazz struggle to score on the road at the best of times and figure to have trouble doing so tonight. While the 76ers are 0-3-1 ATS their last four, they're also 14-6 ATS (16-4 SU) the past 20 times that they'd failed to cover in three or more straight. Expect them to improve on those stats here. |
|||||||
12-01-19 | San Diego v. St Bonaventure OVER 122.5 | Top | 61-70 | Win | 100 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
I'm playing on St. Bonaventure/SD OVER the total. This is a very low O/U number and I believe that it'll prove to be too low. Its important to note that both teams are missing key defenders, out with injury. For the Bonnies, Osunosunniyi remains out. For the Toreros, Yauhen Massalski is out. These guys both are difference makers on the defensive end. Massalski is a 6-10 (230+ pound) Belarusian who protects the rim and led the team in both blocks (he was #3 in the WCC with 49) and rebounds. Osunosunniyi, meanwhile, also 6-10, had nearly twice that many blocks. His 92 rejections ranked #6 in the country, his coach stating: "he's reason our defense was so good last year." Take these key big men out of the equation and this one finds its way above the low number. |
|||||||
12-01-19 | Thunder v. Pelicans OVER 228.5 | Top | 107-104 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 58 m | Show |
I'm playing on Oklahoma City/New Orleans OVER the total. These teams just met, at OKC, a couple of days ago. That one stayed below the number and that result has worked in our favor by keeping this O/U number a little lower than it could have otherwise been. I believe thats providing us with excellent value for what should be a very high-scoring game. The last time that the Thunder played here, the teams combined for 253 points. It was already 66-63 by halftime. This season, games are averaging 233.2 points here. OKC's last game on the road saw 255 total points produced. Expect a quick pace, as this up-tempo game finishes above the total. |
|||||||
11-30-19 | Samford v. Louisiana Tech -10 | Top | 57-78 | Win | 100 | 15 h 34 m | Show |
I'm playing on LA TECH. While both teams brought back four of five starters from last season, I believe that the LA Tech Bulldogs are a considerably better team and I expect them to show it here. The LA Tech defense forces a lot of turnovers and Samford has had real trouble on the road, going 0-4 SU/ATS. Samford has been outscored in those games by an average of 83 to 70.2. LA Tech, on the other hand, has outscored teams by an 85.3 to 52 margin here at home. Off a loss last time out, LA Tech will look to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way. After its previous loss, LA Tech won its next game by 33. Expect a double-digit win for the home team. |
|||||||
11-30-19 | Hornets v. Bucks UNDER 228.5 | Top | 96-137 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
I'm playing on Charlotte/Milwaukee UNDER the total. I won with Charlotte 'over' yesterday but I expect the Hornets to have a lot more trouble scoring here. Sure, the Bucks will put up a big number - they always do - but we're also working with a very high O/U number, considerably higher than yesterday. The Bucks held Atlanta to 102 last game and in their previous home game against an Eastern Conf. opponent, they limited the Pistons to just 90. The last time the Hornets played on the road, after playing the previous day, they scored only 102. They've seen the UNDER go 5-3 when playing a game with an O/U line of 220 or greater and I expect those stats to improve here. |
|||||||
11-30-19 | Hawks v. Rockets -13 | Top | 111-158 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
I'm playing on HOUSTON. This is a very difficult spot for the Hawks. Yesterday, they left it all on the floor in a 1-point OT loss at Indiana. That type of loss takes a toll but mentally and physically. They've won just seven of 31, when playing the second of b2b games, the past 2+ seasons. That includes an 0-4 mark this season, a 1-3 record at the betting window. In two road games, after having played the previous day, the Hawks are 0-2 SU/ATS, losing by 15 and 21. This is arguably a more difficult venue than either of those ones were and the Hawks are off a tougher loss and in a tougher scheduling spot. In addition to playing the second of b2b games, this represents their sixth game in the past nine days. Expect it to catch up to them here as the rested Rockets, 2-0 SU/ATS when playing with two day's rest in between games, deliver a blowout. |
|||||||
11-29-19 | Hornets v. Pistons OVER 213 | Top | 110-107 | Win | 100 | 26 h 60 m | Show |
I'm playing on Detroit/Charlotte OVER the total. These teams just met at Charlotte, on Wednesday. That game finished with just 203 points, a final score of 102-101. That result has helped us by keeping tonight's O/U line a little lower than it would have been otherwise. I believe that it'll prove to be too low. A closer look at Wednesday's boxscore reveals that they were actually on pace for a much higher-scoring game. Entering the fourth quarter, the score was 86-80, an average of more than 55 per quarter. However, the scoring dried up in the fourth, the teams combining for just 37. That was unfortunate for those who had the 'over,' considering that NONE of the other 13 Wed. games had less than 43 in the fourth quarter. Prior to Wednesday's game, the Hornets' previous three games all finished above the number with scores of 217, 231 and 243. On the season, games here are averaging 217.1. Look for the scoring to continue the full four quarters this time, the final combined score proving higher than most will be expecting. |
|||||||
11-28-19 | Creighton +1 v. San Diego State | Top | 52-83 | Loss | -108 | 28 h 48 m | Show |
I'm playing on CREIGHTON. Two solid teams squaring off in Vegas. I like the experience and depth that the BlueJays, which brought back five of last season's top six scorers, bring to the table. Note that they're 4-0 all-time at Orleans Arena, beating the likes of Wisconsin (84-74) and Arizona State (87-73) in 2012; as well as Fresno State (84-65) and DePaul (83-75) in 2008. I say that the BlueJays continue their success here, improving to 65-35 their last 100 non-conference games, while handing the Aztecs their first loss. |
|||||||
11-28-19 | Davidson v. Marquette UNDER 141 | Top | 63-73 | Win | 100 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
I'm playing on Davidson/Marquette UNDER the total. Both these teams can be very stingy. Marquette held Purdue to 55 in a game. Davidson kept UNC-Wilmington to 49. Over the past couple of seasons, both have seen the majority of their games, at neutral sites, finish below the total. The Wildcats find themselves underdogs for the second time this season. The first time (Auburn) they were underdogs, the game stayed below the total. That brings the UNDER go 10-4 the past 2+ seasons, when Davidson has been in the underdog role. Expect those stats to improve here. |
|||||||
11-27-19 | Kings v. 76ers OVER 210.5 | Top | 91-97 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
I'm playing on Sacramento/Philadelphia OVER the total. I won with the 'under' in the 76ers last game. However, that was a rematch of an epic 7-game playoff series against the Raptors. I said that I expected "playoff like intensity" at the defensive end of the floor and thats mostly what we saw. I do NOT expect to see that tonight, however. Tonight, the 76ers are up against a sub-500 opponent from the other conference, one which means nothing to them. There's no reason for the same type of defensive intensity. There is reason, however, to put up a big number; as they're going to be angry about the loss at Toronto and looking to take it out on someone. Note that Philly has already seen the OVER go 4-2-1 against teams from the West and 4-2-1 against sub-500 opponents. Also, the OVER is 43-34 the past couple of seasons, when the 76ers have faced a team which was below .500. The Kings' last visit here had an O/U line of 233 and finished with a score of 123-114. We're working with a much lower O/U number tonight and I feel thats offering excellent value. |
|||||||
11-26-19 | Mercer v. St Bonaventure OVER 141 | Top | 51-56 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
I'm playing on St. Bonaventure and Mercer to finish OVER the total. The Bears have seen their games average 160.4 points. They average 80.2 ppg themselves and also allow 80.2. On the road, however, they're allowing a whopping 91.7 ppg and a 50.3 field goal percentage. Note that the OVER is 3-1 the past four times Mercer was a road underdog in the 3.5 to 6 range and that the OVER is 6-3 the past nine times that the Bears played a road game with an O/U line in the 140 to 144.5 range. While the Bonnies' games have been considerably lower-scoring than Mercer's games, it should be noted that they played with Osun Osunniyi, a major defensive presence, the first couple of games. Osunniyi is out now and the Bonnies aren't as good defensively without him. This is a team they'll be able to put up a big number against though. Off an upset loss at Canisius, look for the OVER to improve to 4-1 the past five times that the Bonnies were off an upset road loss. |
|||||||
11-25-19 | Oakland v. Northern Illinois -4.5 | Top | 50-74 | Win | 100 | 23 h 60 m | Show |
I'm playing on NORTHERN ILLINOIS. The Huskies are a much deeper and more experienced than Oakland. The Grizzlies were supposed to be a really experienced team but they lost six players in the offseason, players that were expected to come back, including the team's starting backcourt. That's going to catch up with them against German and co. The Huskies are 5-2 ATS off a road win the past couple of seasons, 2-0 ATS off b2b road wins. Expect them to pull away for the win and cover, improving to 5-2 ATS the past seven times that they were listed as home favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range. |
|||||||
11-24-19 | Long Beach State v. Arizona OVER 141.5 | Top | 67-104 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
I'm playing on Long Beach State and Arizona to finish OVER the total. The 49ers prepared for this game by crushing Fresno Pacific. Having scored 93 points, their offense is coming in confident. While the Wildcats managed only 71 points last time out, they'd scored 83, 87, 90 and 91 in their previous four games. Note that the Wildcats scored 91 when they faced the 49ers in November of 2017. That game had an O/U line of 157 but we're working with a considerably lower number here. Thats noteworthy as the 49ers have seen the OVER go 4-1 the past five times that they played a road game with an O/U line in the 140 to 144.5 range. Its true that Arizona is allowing only 55 ppg. However, its also true that the OVER is a perfect 5-0 the past five times that CSULB faced a team which was allowing 64 or fewer points per game. Look for those stats to improve as this one proves higher-scoring than many will be expecting. |
|||||||
11-24-19 | Nets v. Knicks OVER 211 | Top | 103-101 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 24 m | Show |
I'm playing on Brooklyn/NY OVER the total. The Knicks have hit triple-digits in scoring in six straight games. They've also allowed their opponent to reach triple-digits in 11 straight games. The Nets scored 116 last time out. They're averaging 113.9 ppg on the road while giving up 118.7. Thats an average of 232.6 points per road game. Needless to say, this number is much lower than that. Note that this first season's meeting produced 222 points but had an O/U line of 229. Not surprisingly, four of the Nets' six road games have finished above the number. Expect this one to do the same. |
|||||||
11-23-19 | SMU v. UNLV OVER 125 | Top | 72-68 | Win | 100 | 11 h 60 m | Show |
I'm playing on UNLV/SMU OVER the total. This is a very low O/U line. In what should be a competitive game, I believe it'll prove to be too low. SMU has scored 74 or more points in three of its four games. The Rebels have alternated between scoring a lot and scoring a little (86, 56, 75, 54, 72, 57) but they're off a low-scoring game. The Rebels have seen the OVER go 7-3 their last 10 off an upset loss. During that span, the OVER is also 19-9 when the Rebels were off a loss overall. Both teams should exceed 60 which is all we're going to need. Go with the OVER. |
|||||||
11-23-19 | Heat v. 76ers -4 | Top | 86-113 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. The Heat have been on a nice roll. However, playing their second straight on the road, on consecutive nights, I expect their streak to come to an end this evening. The Heat are already 0-2 SU and 0-1-1 ATS when playing the second of b2b games. They lost by 15 and by seven. The 76ers are 30-10 SU and 23-17 ATS when listed as home favorites of -6 or less. They won two of the three meetings last season, including the lone game here. Expect a win and cover for the home team. |
|||||||
11-22-19 | Kings v. Nets -1 | Top | 97-116 | Win | 100 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
I'm playing on BROOKLYN. I won with both these teams in their last game. Tonight, playing at home, I expect it to be the Nets which keep it going. The Kings have been on an impressive ATS win streak. They're still only 2-4 on the road though. As I mentioned last time when the Nets won big, they really wanted a minimum of two of these three home games. After dropping the first, they can still salvage the 2-1 mark on the homestand. I expect them to be extremely motivated. The Nets took both last season's meetings, scoring 123 points in each game, including a 123-94 blowout here in Brooklyn. Nets roll. |
|||||||
11-22-19 | Wake Forest v. Davidson UNDER 142 | Top | 82-70 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
I'm playing on WF/Davidson UNDER the total. I won with the Wildcats in each of their last two games. I still really like them as a team. However, I feel that the secret is out and people are realizing how good they are. In other words, the line value isn't what it was the past couple of games. I do, however, feel that there's still plenty of value with tonight's total. The Wildcats showed how stingy they can be in holding UNC Wilmington to 49 points. Wake Forest scored just 65 last time out, while allowing just 67. New assistant coach Rex Walters is a defensive specialist. Look for the UNDER to improve to 4-1 Davidson's last five games against teams from the ACC. |
|||||||
11-21-19 | Pelicans v. Suns -4.5 | Top | 124-121 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 4 m | Show |
I'm playing on PHOENIX. I successfully played against the Suns last time out. However, that was on the road against a revenge-minded Sacramento team. Now, they're back home to take on a banged-up Pelican team which is just 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS away from New Orleans. With a pair of road games on deck and knowing that they'll face these same Pelicans in two weeks, at New Orleans, the Suns know they need to take care of business tonight. Otherwise, their hot start will soon be a distant memory. The Suns beat the Pelicans by seven the last meeting here. They're 5-2 ATS as favorites and I expect another win and cover tonight. |
|||||||
11-21-19 | Central Michigan v. Minnesota OVER 152.5 | Top | 57-82 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
I'm playing on Minnesota/Central Michigan OVER the total. The Gophers have seen each of their first four games fall below the number. That changes tonight. Underdogs the last three times on the floor, Pitino's team has had a difficult early schedule. They've got some very capable shooters on this team though, arguably more so than last season. Back home and facing a CMU team which has topped the 100-mark in three of four games, we're going to see plenty of scoring. The Chippewas can hit from beyond the arc and are great at getting to the line. The O/U line could easily be higher but the Gophers' early results have worked in our favor by keeping it down. Expect plenty of offensive fireworks in this one. |
|||||||
11-20-19 | Morehead State v. Missouri OVER 133 | Top | 52-70 | Loss | -123 | 24 h 25 m | Show |
I'm playing on Missouri/Morehead State OVER the total. When these teams met last season, at Missouri, the O/U line was 139. They ended up combining for 136. This evening, we're working with a lower O/U number and I feel thats providing plenty of value. Morehead State had trouble scoring last year but I expect some more points out of the Eagles in this one. They've scored 76 or more in all four games and are averaging 83.7 ppg. While the opposition was admittedly very weak, it still helps to give the shooters confidence. They've hit 51% of their field goals. Jordan Walker has led the team in scoring each of the past two seasons and he's back and doing so again. Of course, Missouri has plenty of advantages and should put up a big number of its own. The Tigers had 45 by halfitme in last year's game and would have finished with more than 75 if it hadn't been a blowout out of the gate. The Eagles, who are 19 point underdogs as I write this, have seen the OVER go a perfect 3-0 the past couple of seasons, as road underdogs in the 18.5 to 24 range. Look for this one to prove higher-scoring than most will be expecting. |
|||||||
11-20-19 | Hornets v. Nets -3.5 | Top | 91-101 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
I'm playing on BROOKLYN. Off a tough road trip, the Nets came into their current 3-game homestand, games against the Pacers, Hornets and Kings, thinking that they really needed to go at least 2-1 and hopefully 3-0. However, they already got hammered by the Pacers in the first game. I believe thats going to lead to an extremely motivated effort tonight. While these teams split four meetings overall last season, the Nets have had plenty of success against Southeast teams overall; they're 23-13 SU/ATS against that division the past couple of seasons. During that span, they're also 14-8-1 ATS when off a loss by 15 or more. Catching Charlotte, which is 7-18-4 ATS off a loss of 15 or more, off a 36-point loss against the champs, expect the Nets to bounce back with their best effort, en route to a much needed win and cover. |
|||||||
11-19-19 | Suns v. Kings -1.5 | Top | 116-120 | Win | 100 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
I'm playing on SACRAMENTO. These teams met on opening night at Phoenix. I released a big play on the Suns and they came through for me with a decisive victory. They continued to roll for a long time after that, too. They've started to cool off now though and they're off a blowout loss against Boston last night. The Kings, on the other hand, have gone the other way. Off their opening loss at Phoenix, they really struggled for some time, going 0-5 SU/ATS their first five. They've covered every single game since then though, a 7-0 ATS (5-2 SU) run. Schedule and venue in their favor and playing with revenge from the opener, I expect the Kings to keep on rolling for at least one more night, improving to a perfect 8-0 ATS in November. |
|||||||
11-19-19 | New Mexico v. UTEP OVER 145 | Top | 63-66 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
I'm playing on New Mexico/Utep OVER the total. Given the pace that the Lobos are playing at, I believe this O/U line is too low. New Mexico has scored 90 or more points in all four of its games. The Lobos also allowed 70 or more in all four games. Overall, the Lobos are averaging 93 ppg, while allowing an average of 74.7. Utep checks in averaging 76.7 ppg of its own. Consider that the O/U line was 155 when these teams met last season. Yet, they combined for 162. The previous year, the O/U line was 146 but the teams combined for 164. The year before that? The O/U line was just 138 but they already had 86 by halftime and ultimately combined for 165. While this is their first game on the road this season, its worth noting that the OVER is a perfect 7-0 the past 2+ seasons, when the Lobos played a road game with an O/U line in the 145 to 149.5 range. With both teams putting up a good number, expect those stats to improve here. |
|||||||
11-19-19 | Nevada v. Davidson -7.5 | Top | 71-91 | Win | 100 | 21 h 55 m | Show |
I'm playing on DAVIDSON. I won with the Wildcats in their last game. I noted that they were a very talented and experienced that was looking to explode, after a poor start. They did exactly that, destroying UNC-Wilmington. Nevada is probably a bit stronger than the Seahawks but is still a team that Davidson will be able to handle. I expect Davidson to carry its positive momentum to be carried forward. Note that the Wolfpack are off a double-digit loss and that they'll now be playing their first game on the road. While the Wildcats brought back their entire starting lineup from last season, the Wolfpack lost their entire starting lineup. They've got a new coach with a fairly big name (Alford) but he got a late start in recruiting and two of the players he signed are Div 1 transfers and have to sit out a season. In other words, Davidson has a vast edge in experience and depth. Expect it be to evident tonight as the Wildcats deliver another blowout. |
|||||||
11-18-19 | Bucks v. Bulls +7.5 | Top | 115-101 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 15 m | Show |
I'm playing on CHICAGO. These teams recently met at Milwaukee. The Bucks won by nine. Playing at home, I expect the Bulls to be even more competitive. With a very high O/U line, note that Chicago is 6-2 ATS the past eight times it had an O/U line of 230 or greater. The Bulls are 4-1 ATS on the season, after allowing 115 or more points. They're also 3-0 ATS when off a loss by six or less. The Bucks have seen four of five decided by single digits. I'm grabbing the points. |
|||||||
11-18-19 | Utah Valley v. Kentucky OVER 135.5 | Top | 74-82 | Win | 100 | 23 h 4 m | Show |
I'm playing on Kentucky/Utah Valley OVER the total. These teams have both been profitable for 'under' bettors so far this season. Those early results have helped us by keeping this O/U line a bit lower than it otherwise could have been. I believe that it'll prove to be too low. Both teams lost considerable offensive production from last season. So, its not shocking that their scores have been a bit low thus far. Speaking of shocking, in case you didn't hear, the Wildcats lost against Evansville last time out. That'll have them in an angry mood here and they'll look to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way. Remember, prior to the Evansville loss, the Cats scored 91 points. So, this is still a team fully capable of putting up a big number. Likewise with Utah Valley. While the competition was obviously pretty weak, the Wolverines are only a game removed from hitting triple-digits. Look for the Wildcats to put up a big number and for the Wolverines to add enough, to send this final score above the low number. |
|||||||
11-17-19 | Wizards v. Magic -7 | Top | 121-125 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 10 m | Show |
I'm playing on ORLANDO. The Magic are playing well right now. They beat the Spurs last time out and hammered the 76ers in their previous game. Thats three wins in their past four and they've hit triple-digits in scoring in five straight. While the Wizards have fared well as underdogs, I like how the Magic match up against them. Playing at home, I believe they'll have the advantage. With an O/U line in the low/mid 220s, note that the Magic are 9-5-1 ATS the past couple of seasons, when playing a home game with an O/U line of 220 or greater. During that span, they're also 17-6-2 after scoring 110 or more points in b2b games. Expect them to improve on those stats with a double-digit win here. |
|||||||
11-17-19 | Seton Hall v. St. Louis UNDER 140.5 | Top | 83-66 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 9 m | Show |
I'm playing on Seton Hall / St. Louis UNDER the total. These teams met on this very day last season. The O/U line for that 11/17/18 game was 134. They had 61 at halftime and finished with 130. Today, thanks to some early high-scoring results, we're working with a more generous O/U line and I believe thats providing us with excellent value. Over the years, the Pirates have seen the UNDER go 30-18 when playing a road game with an O/U line in the 140 to 144.5 range. During the same span, the UNDER is 8-3 when the normally stingy Billikens played a home game with a line in the same range. Overall, the Billikens have seen the UNDER go 19-9 in all games with an O/U line in that range. Last time out, St. Louis allowed just 60. Look for this one to prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting, the UNDER moving to 4-1 the last five times that St. Louis faced a team from the Big East. |
|||||||
11-16-19 | Bucks v. Pacers +6 | Top | 102-83 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
I'm playing on INDIANA. We're getting some extra line value with the Pacers due to the fact that they played yesterday. The Pacers don't typically mind playing the second of b2b games though. They're 17-12 ATS (16-13 SU) when doing so the past 2+ seasons. The only time that they did so this season, they won by 15 points. Plus, prior to last night, they had two nights off. So, they're not playing a 3-in-4 situation. In other words, I'm not too worried about the b2b spot and am happy with the extra line value its provided. As for last night, though they didn't cover, I liked the effort I saw from the Pacers. They were diving for balls right up until the closing seconds. Since dropping their home opener, the Pacers have played great here, winning five straight. While the Bucks are indeed a tough team, they're only 2-4 ATS as road favorites. Grab the points. |
|||||||
11-16-19 | NC-Wilmington v. Davidson -16.5 | Top | 49-87 | Win | 100 | 23 h 7 m | Show |
I'm playing on DAVIDSON. The Seahawks are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Off to an 0-2 start, the Wildcats are going to be in an angry mood. This is an experienced and talented Davidson team, one with big expectations on the season. This has been a good role for the Wildcats over the years. They're 16-8-2 ATS (25-1 SU) the past 26 times that they were listed as home favorites in the -15.5 to -18 range. That includes a perfect 3-0 ATS mark their last three in that role. Even better, during that span, the Wildcats are a perfect 8-0 ATS if they'd scored 25 or fewer points in the first half of their previous game. The Wildcats won by 27, as -11 point favorites, the last time these teams met here. Expect another blowout. |
|||||||
11-14-19 | Mavs v. Knicks OVER 216 | Top | 103-106 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
I'm playing on Dallas/NY OVER the total. I won with the Knicks 'over' in their last game. That was played at a fast tempo and I'm expecting another relatively high-scoring affair here. The Mavs have hit triple-digits in every game this season. They'll be looking for payback as the Knicks recently upset them at Dallas. While that game did stay below the total, the Mavs' five road games have averaged a whopping 235.6 points, much higher than their home games. Not surprisingly, four of them finished above the number. The Knicks are working Dennis Smith back in the lineup. He struggled on both ends of the floor in the loss to the Bulls. The former Maverick should get his offense going against his old team tonight though and he'll be looking to push the pace. However, he's still likely going to be a step slow defensively. Look for the OVER to improve to 5-1 when the Mavs face a team with a losing record. |
|||||||
11-14-19 | Alabama A&M v. Cincinnati OVER 133 | Top | 53-85 | Win | 100 | 21 h 20 m | Show |
I'm playing on Cincinnati/Alabama A&M OVER the total. I actually won with the Bearcats 'under' in their last game. However, that was more a case of a line being generously high and even at the time, I noted that they were going to push the pace a lot more this year. Tonight, as a huge favorite, they'll have a chance to do exactly that. I expect them to put up a huge number. Through two games, Alabama A&M is allowing an average of 90 points. While the Bulldogs won't be able to keep up, coach Dylan Howard expects his new lineup to be much more efficent offensively this season. As per "Blue Ribbon," Howard commented: "We had to get better guys that can just score at multiple levels. We had to get guys that can finish at the rim, knock down the 3 with more consistency..." Bearcats put up a big number and Bulldogs provide enough help to get this one over the low total. |
|||||||
11-13-19 | Raptors v. Blazers UNDER 221 | Top | 114-106 | Win | 100 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
I'm playing on Portland/Toronto UNDER the total. The Raptors managed a mere 88 points last time out, a 98-88 loss at LA on Monday. Yesterday, the Blazers scored only 99 at Sacramento. This will be the third time this season that they played two games in two nights. The UNDER was 1-0-1 the first two times. The UNDER is now 16-12-1 when the Blazers have played the second of b2b games, the past two seasons. During that span, the Blazers have also seen the UNDER go 5-2 when off an upset loss on the road. Raptor road games are averaging only 209.8 points this season as the champs have been very stingy on the road. Look for this one to prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. |
|||||||
11-13-19 | Grizzlies v. Hornets -115 | Top | 119-117 | Loss | -115 | 21 h 25 m | Show |
I'm playing on CHARLOTTE. Wins will be hard to come by for the Hornets this season so this is an opportunity which they can't afford to squander. True, the Grizzlies are off an upset win at San Antonio. However, they're still just 1-3 on the road, getting outscored by an average of 116.7 to 97.7. Perhaps more importantly, they're 0-8 SU the past 2+ seasons, when off an upset win over a division rival. The Hornets had the past couple of days off, after eking out a cover at Philadelphia, on the second of b2b nights. They're already 2-0 SU/ATS on the season, when playing with two day's rest and I look for them to take care of business once again this evening. |
|||||||
11-12-19 | Knicks v. Bulls OVER 213 | Top | 102-120 | Win | 100 | 26 h 4 m | Show |
I'm playing on Chicago/NY OVER the total. These teams played a relatively low scoring game against each other at MSG but I'm expecting this evening's rematch to be higher-scoring. Note that we're working with a considerably lower O/U line than we were for the first meeting. The Bulls have scored a minimum of 112 points in two of their last three. They've also allowed a minimum of 117 in two of their last three. As for the Knicks, they've allowed each of their past five opponents to hit triple-digits. In their last game, the Knicks got blown out, despite being favored, by Cleveland. Thats only the fourth time the past 2+ seasons that the Knicks have lost by 15 more more, when listed as a favorite. After each of the previous three cases, their next game finished above the total. Look for this one to also prove higher-scoring than most will be expecting. |
|||||||
11-11-19 | Drake v. Cincinnati UNDER 141.5 | Top | 59-81 | Win | 100 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
I'm playing on Drake/Cincy UNDER the total. While the Bulldogs do return six of their top nine players, the three that left were there three top scorers. They had success offensively against a weak team (Kennesaw State) in their first game but they're going to find scoring a challenge against a stingy Cincy team. True, the Bearcats are going to be a little more up-tempo under Brannen than they were under Cronin. They're still going to be a strong defensive team though. In their first game, while the Bearcats scored only 56 against Ohio State, they also held the Buckeyes to only 64. Drake has seen the UNDER go 7-1-1 the last nine times it played a road game with an O/U line in the 140 to 144.5 range. Expect those stats to improve this evening. |
|||||||
11-10-19 | Hawks v. Blazers -8.5 | Top | 113-124 | Win | 100 | 28 h 57 m | Show |
I'm playing on PORTLAND. The Hawks are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. The Blazers got 60 from Lillard last time out but still lost. They're going to be in an angry mood here and they'll provide Lillard with a lot more support. The Hawks have lost b2b games and four of their last five. All the losses came by a minimum of nine points. The Blazers have beaten the Hawks each of the last three meetings. They won those games by 20, 9 and 21 points. The Blazers know they need to take advantage of this very winnable game. Their next game is on the road, then they host the defending champs, then they go on a lengthy road trip. In other words, winning here is critical. Expect them to bounce back with a double-digit win. |
|||||||
11-09-19 | Eastern Washington v. Seattle University -2.5 | Top | 74-66 | Loss | -108 | 26 h 14 m | Show |
I'm playing on SEATTLE. When these instate rivals met last season, the Redhawks hammered the Eagles by an 88-68 margin. Two seasons ago, Seattle won by a similar margin, 84-65. If they can stay healthy, the Eagles should have a good season in the Big Sky. However, they're still not ready to knock off Seattle. Note that Eastern Washington was 1-9 in non-conf. play last season. Seattle, on the other hand, was 10-4 in non-conf. action, outscoring teams by a 78.4 to 68.9 ppg. The Redhawks are going to be in an angry mood after getting blown out at Washington State. Needless to say, this is a significant step down in class. Having faced the Cougars intense defense should serve them well. The Redhawks, who returned four starters from last season, know that they've got a brutal non-conf. schedule and that they can't afford to squander this opportunity. The Redhawks, 31-9 their last 40 at home, are 3-0 SU the past 2+ seasons, after a road loss of 20 or more points. Expect them to improve on those stats, covering the small number along the way. |
|||||||
11-09-19 | Celtics v. Spurs | Top | 135-115 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 30 m | Show |
I'm playing on SAN ANTONIO. The Spurs got back on track, snapping a 2-game slide with a solid 121-112 win over OKC, last time out. I feel that they're catching the Celtics at the right time and I look for the Spurs to carry the momentum of their victory over the Thunder into today's game. The Spurs handled the Celtics last season winning 115-96 and 120-111. They're 72-20 here the past 2+ seasons. During the same span, Boston is 55-43 on the road. The Celtics are off an emotional win against Kemba Walker's old team and are now playing the final game of a road trip. They're just 6-10 ATS the past 2+ seasons, off b2b road wins. I'm going with the Spurs. |
|||||||
11-08-19 | Kings v. Hawks OVER 219.5 | Top | 121-109 | Win | 100 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
I'm playing on Sac/Atlanta OVER the total. The Hawks have seen all their games finish below the total but that changes here. The Kings' last game produced 244 points. They've hit triple-digits in scoring in four straight and they've allowed every opponent, with the exception of the Knicks, to reach triple-digits. These teams last met in January and they combined for 248 points, all of them in regulation. That was at Sacramento. The last time that they faced each other here at Atlanta was even higher scoring. That game, which came here last November, produced 261 points. Again, all in regulation. Look for both teams to have offensive success in this one, the OVER improving to 12-5 the past 17 times that Atlanta was off a loss of 20 or more points. |
|||||||
11-08-19 | Davidson v. Auburn UNDER 146 | Top | 66-76 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
I'm playing on Auburn/Davidson UNDER the total. These are both good teams and both are going to be stingy defensively this season. Bruce Pearl said this of Auburn prior to the season: "We'll be different. We won't shoot it as well, we won't be as undersized and quick ... we'll be bigger, longer and we'll need to be better defensively ..." Davidson has seen the UNDER go 9-4 when getting points, the past couple of seasons, typically playing at quite a slow pace. (Ranked 319th in adjusted tempo according to KemPom.com.) That includes a 2-0 UNDER record as a neutral court underdog of three or fewer points. Over the years, Auburn has seen the UNDER go 11-6 when playing a neutral court game with an O/U line in the 145 to 149.5 range. Expect those stats to improve here. |
|||||||
11-07-19 | Heat v. Suns OVER 217.5 | Top | 124-108 | Win | 100 | 25 h 43 m | Show |
I'm playing on Miami/Phoenix OVER the total. The Heat have been involved in four straight 'unders' but I expect that to change this evening. The last time that these teams met they combined for 245 points. Three of the last four meetings have finished with at least 228. Including those results, the Suns have seen the OVER go 13-6-1 their last 20 against teams from the southeast. The Suns' last three games have produced 231, 219 and 223 points. I expect both teams to have success offensively, remember Miami scored 129 just two games ago, the OVER improving to 9-3 the past 12 times that the Suns were off two or more consecutive victories. |
|||||||
11-07-19 | Seattle University v. Washington State UNDER 142.5 | Top | 54-85 | Win | 100 | 24 h 60 m | Show |
I'm playing on Seattle/WSU UNDER the total. These schools try and recruit the same players so there's a natural rivalry. Seattle took last season's game, at Seattle. The Cougars won here at WSU, the previous year. In both cases, the came stayed below the total. The game here had an O/U line of 141.5 and finished with 134, a 75-59 final. That was the "old" Cougars, too. Under former coach Ernie Kent, the Cougars were typically pretty incompetent on defense. They've got a new coach now though as Kyle Smith has taken over in Pullman. Smith has absolutely brought a new level of commitment to the defensive side of the ball. WSU forward CJ Elleby had this to say: "First hour of practice, we're doing straight defense. We're working on our principles, where we need to be in rotations, how we can help the helper and really how we're going to guard situation plays. Ball screens, down screens, back screens. Really just trying to learn, and he's teaching us the ways in which we're going to play defense." Forward Deion James added: "Right now, defensively, we're just trying to keep the ball in front of us, just in terms of stopping the ball. Just having help-side rotation and rotating pretty good. And just having everybody's back and not quitting when things break down. So, that's our biggest emphasis." Look for the renewed commitment and emphasis on defense to lead to a relatively low-scoring affair, the UNDER moving to a perfect 7-0 the last seven times that Seatte played a road game with an O/U line in the 140 to 144.5 range. |
|||||||
11-06-19 | Knicks v. Pistons OVER 207 | Top | 102-122 | Win | 100 | 9 h 39 m | Show |
I'm playing on Detroit/NY OVER the total. The last time that the Knicks played here, the O/U line was 204.5 and the teams combined for 223 points, all in regulation. The Knicks' previous visit here also produced 223 points, that one also finishing above the total. We're working with a fairly low number and I look for tonight's game to also prove higher-scoring than most will be expecting. Note that Detroit games are averaging The OVER is 17-11 when the Knicks have played with two day's rest in between games, the past two seasons. Expect those stats to improve here. |
|||||||
11-05-19 | Heat v. Nuggets -4.5 | Top | 89-109 | Win | 100 | 27 h 53 m | Show |
I'm playing on DENVER. The Heat have gotten off to a great start but I expect them to stumble at this difficult venue. Note that the Heat are an ugly 5-13-2 ATS the past 20 times that they were coming off a double-digit home win, just 1-6-2 ATS if that win came by 20 or more. Also, note that Miami's hot start has helped to keep this line a lot more reasonable than it could have otherwise been. Including a 103-87 blowout of the Heat here last season, a game where they were laying -9.5 points, the Nuggets are 66-17 SU as a home favorite. Expect them to improve on those stats, covering the small number along the way. |
|||||||
11-05-19 | Ohio v. St Bonaventure -11.5 | Top | 65-53 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 40 m | Show |
I'm playing on ST. BONAVENTURE. Both these teams are young. However, the Bonnies' young players are a lot more talented and have a lot more experience. While the Bobcats return just one starter, St. Bonaventure returns a trio of starting sophomores and will have a big edge in the backcourt. Note that the Bobcats are 7-16-1 ATS (4-20 SU) as road underdogs the past couple of seasons while the Bonnies were 13-7 ATS (18-2 SU). Coach Schmidt said this of his Bonnies: "... confidence is a big factor for these guys. Getting off to a good start is paramount … " The Bobcats will provide the Bonnies with the perfect opportunity for that good start. Expect Schmidt's team to make the most of it, keeping the pedal to the metal the entire way and pulling away for a blowout win. |
|||||||
11-04-19 | Rockets v. Grizzlies +6.5 | Top | 107-100 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 46 m | Show |
I'm playing on MEMPHIS. The Rockets have been terrible at the betting window so far this season. I don't expect that to change here. While the Grizzlies had Sunday off, the Rockets are off a game at Miami. They gave up 46 points in the first quarter alone in that one. The Rockets are the end of a road trip. All three games here at Memphis have been decided by single digits. Speaking of close games, the Rockets' last visit here resulted in a 1-point game. In what figures to be another close one, I'm grabbing the points. |
|||||||
11-03-19 | Kings v. Knicks OVER 214.5 | Top | 113-92 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
I'm playing on SAC/NY OVER the total. These teams are both struggling out of the gate. Both are going to see this as an opportunity for a win and both are going to go all out to get it. I expect that to mean that both teams hit triple-digits and keep scoring right until the final buzzer. Both teams have seen the majority of their games against teams from their own conference stay below the total. However, both have seen the OVER go 1-0 when matched up against a team from the other conference. The Kings combined with Charlotte for 229 while the Knicks and Spurs produced 231. Look for the OVER to move to 5-1 the last six times that the Kings were off a home win of three or fewer points. |
|||||||
11-02-19 | Suns v. Grizzlies +2.5 | Top | 114-105 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
I'm playing on MEMPHIS. Great start for the Suns, obviously. However, I don't believe this young team is quite ready to be laying points on the road. Even with the recent win in SF, the Suns are still just 19-65 on the road the past 2+ seasons. Its hard to win away from home. Note that the Suns are 1-6 the last seven times that they were off a double-digit win as an underdog. The Grizzlies beat Brooklyn their last game on this floor and they're coming in confident that this is a matchup they can win. The last meeting here resulted in a 117-96 win for the Grizzlies. Expect them to score the 'upset' here. |
|||||||
10-31-19 | Heat v. Hawks OVER 216.5 | Top | 106-97 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
I'm playing on Miami/Atlanta OVER the total. These teams just faced each other, two days ago, at Miami. The Heat won by a 112-97 score. If you follow the NBA, you probably heard that the Hawks lost Young to injury in that one. That result and the Young injury have combined to provide us with a considerably lower O/U line than the one we saw Tuesday. I feel that it'll prove to be too low. Young is out for awhile, so the Hawks are going to need to score without him. Playing at home, they should be able to do so. Note that the OVER is 38-28 the past couple of years, when the Hawks were off a double-digit loss. During the same span, the Heat have seen the OVER go 12-7 when off a double-digit home win and 5-1 to the OVER when off a double-digit home win over a divisional opponent. They've scored 120, 131, 109 and 112 points, thus far. Look for them to put up another fairly big number, combining with the Hawks to send the final combined score above the relatively low total. |
|||||||
10-30-19 | Bucks v. Celtics UNDER 222.5 | Top | 105-116 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
I'm playing on Milwaukee/Boston UNDER the total. As you likely recall, these teams recently met in the playoffs, a one-sided series in favor of the Bucks. With that series fresh in the memories' of the players and fans, I expect tonight's game to feature some extra electricity in the building and some added intensity at the defensive end of the floor. Since winning against Toronto and NY on 10/25 and 10/26, the Celtics have had past few days off. The UNDER is 7-5 the past 12 times that they played with three or more day's rest in between games. During that span, the UNDER is also 4-1 when they were off b2b divisional wins. The Bucks saw their lone road game stay below the total and I look for this one to also prove lower scoring than most will be expecting. |
|||||||
10-29-19 | Mavs v. Nuggets OVER 215 | Top | 109-106 | Push | 0 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
I'm playing on Dallas/Denver OVER the total. The Nuggets have seen their first few games fall below the total. Those results have helped keep tonight's O/U line reasonably low. I believe it'll prove to be too low. The Nuggets, who won at Sacramento last night, will be playing the second of b2b games for the first time this season; the OVER is 16-11 (59%) when they've been in that sitution the past couple of years. During that span, the OVER is also 18-9 (67%) when the Nuggets were off three consecutive 'unders' and a profitable 27-11 (71%) when they were off a road win. With the Mavs' last two games having produced 239 and 240 points, expect those stats to improve here. |
|||||||
10-28-19 | Blazers v. Spurs -4 | Top | 110-113 | Loss | -115 | 26 h 22 m | Show |
I'm playing on SAN ANTONIO. The home team has won six straight in this series. The last three games played here in San Antonio saw the Spurs win by scores of 108-103, 131-118 and 116-105. For this one, not only do they have the venue in their favor but the Spurs also have the schedule in their favor. While they had Sunday off, the Blazers played at Dallas. Knowing they hit the road after this, look for the Spurs to take care of business on their home floor here, covering the small number along the way. |
|||||||
10-27-19 | Heat v. Wolves -6.5 | Top | 109-116 | Win | 100 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
I'm playing on MINNESOTA. The T-Wolves are off a hot (2-0) start and this game sets up very nicely for them. While Minnesota had yesterday off, Miami is off an OT win at Milwaukee. I say that OT game catches up with them here, against a Minnesota team playing its home opener. Note that the Heat are just 15-25-3 ATS over the past couple of seasons, when off two or more consecutive ATS wins. Schedule and venue in their favor, look for the Wolves to improve to 9-5 ATS the last 14 times that they were coming off a double-digit road win. |
|||||||
10-26-19 | Magic v. Hawks OVER 217.5 | Top | 99-103 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
I'm playing on Orlando/Atlanta OVER the total. These teams both think they can win this one and both are likely to keep scoring the entire way. The last time that they faced each other? They combined for 262 points, all of them in regulation. That was at Orlando. The last time that they faced each other here at Atlanta? The O/U line was 224.5 and they combined for 232. The previous game here at Atlanta had an O/U line of 222; the Magic and Hawks combined for 225. We're working with a considerably lower O/U number here, which I feel is providing very fair line value. While the Magic held the Cavs to a mere 85 points in their first game, the OVER is a profitable 14-2 the past couple of seasons, after they held their previous opponent to 90 or fewer points. Expect those stats to improve this evening. |
|||||||
10-25-19 | Jazz v. Lakers UNDER 219.5 | Top | 86-95 | Win | 100 | 29 h 15 m | Show |
I'm playing on Utah/LA UNDER the total. I won with the 'under' the first time that the Jazz played this season. They were dominant defensively, alllowing just 95 points on 38.6% shooting. While the Lakers had a tougher time in slowing down Kawhi and co, their game still finished below the total. Also, after seeing the Clippers put up 141 last night, holding them to 112 wasn't too bad. Note that the Lakers only scored 102 themselves. With the Lakers having been listed as the "road team" for their game against the Clippers, note that the UNDER is a perfect 7-0 the last seven times that they were off a divisional road loss. Overall, during that span, the UNDER is 12-5 when they were off a divisional loss. The Lakers have seen the UNDER go 25-11 against teams from the Northwest the past couple of seasons. Expect those stats to improve this evening. |
|||||||
10-25-19 | Raptors v. Celtics -2.5 | Top | 106-112 | Win | 100 | 26 h 34 m | Show |
I'm playing on BOSTON. I won with the champs in their opening game. However, I expect them to face a tougher test here. Off a road loss at Philly, the Celtics are going to be extremely hungry to win their home opener. History says they'll have a great shot at this series has been dominated by the home team in recent years. The Raptors have won eight straight meetings, at Toronto. Meanwhile, the Celtics have beaten the Raptors five straight times, here at Boston. Those wins came by an average of 6.5 points. Wednesday's loss notwithstanding, the Celtics have been strong in divisional games overall. Look for them to improve to 9-3 SU the last 12 times that they were off a divisional loss, covering the small number along the way. |
|||||||
10-24-19 | Clippers v. Warriors +2.5 | Top | 141-122 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 25 m | Show |
I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE. What is the world coming to? The Clippers are favored, on the road, against the Warriors. That is indeed the state of the union, in case you haven't been paying attention. Kawhi's debut was everything the Clipper fans were hoping for. Clearly, he's a special player and this is a talented team. That said, they're not going to win every game. Curry, Green and co. are playing on their home floor and they've got payback (against Kawhi) on their minds. They're going to be highly determined to start the season with a win and get rid of the bad taste in their mouths from last year's finals. True, Durant has moved on. Remember, they won a title without him. True, Klay is out. Paul George is out for LA though, too. The addition of D'Angelo Russel (29 points in 28 mins in final preseason game) is not insignificant. Playing on their homecourt, I say the defending Western Conf. champs get it done. |
|||||||
10-23-19 | Kings v. Suns +2 | Top | 95-124 | Win | 100 | 38 h 57 m | Show |
I'm playing on PHOENIX. By the end of recent years, even die-hard Phoenix fans start losing faith. However, every season brings new hope. I like the offseason moves that the Suns made and the building is going be full of electricity. Booker is dealing with a minor finger issue but says he's fine and has been shooting normally. I expect him to be the best player on the floor. The Suns beat the Kings 115-111 the last time these teams faced each other on this floor and they've taken two of the last three meetings here. Booker didn't even play in that 115-111 win. Instead, the Suns got huge games from Oubre and Ayton, both still with the team. Oubre had 26 points in that game including a 1-handed rebound jam with about 10 seconds to play. Ayton had 17 points and 12 boards. The Kings committed a season-high 26 turnovers. You look at the Suns' projected starting lineup (Rubio, Oubre, Booker, Saric, Ayton) with guys like Frank Kaminsky coming off the bench and there's more talent there than many realize. Expect them to start the season with a victory. |
|||||||
10-23-19 | Thunder v. Jazz UNDER 223.5 | Top | 95-100 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
I'm playing on OKC/Utah UNDER the total. With this being a division game, I expect it to feature intensity at the defensive side of the floor right from the beginning. Note that Utah has seen the UNDER go 23-14-1 in divisional games the past couple of seasons, while also seeing the UNDER go 23-15 as a home favorite in the -6.5 to -12 range. The last time that these teams met, the O/U line was 226. Yet, the finished with only 187 points, a 98-89 upset by the Thunder. Including that result, the UNDER is 24-10-1 when the Thunder have been road underdogs the past couple of seasons. A closer look finds the UNDER at a perfect 4-0 during that span, when the Thunder were road underdogs in the +6.5 to +12 range. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. |
|||||||
10-22-19 | Pelicans v. Raptors -5.5 | Top | 122-130 | Win | 100 | 510 h 57 m | Show |
I'm playing on TORONTO. The Raptors are champs but feel that they aren't getting any respect. With Kawhi having moved on, few are giving them a chance of repeating. However, as Lowry stated, " “We know what we've accomplished. Who cares what other people think." I believe that the champs are going to be a on a mission to silence the critics. They're 7-1 their last eight against the Pelicans, most recently a 127-104 win last March. Motivated to show the world that they were/are more than Kawhi, I expect them to start the season with a win and cover. |
|||||||
06-13-19 | Raptors v. Warriors -3.5 | Top | 114-110 | Loss | -100 | 61 h 24 m | Show |
I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE. I've stated several times that the Raptors rarely do anything easily. They had a chance to close out the series in Game 5 but didn't. Having missed that opportunity, I fully expect this series to go the distance. The Warriors are now 14-6 ATS their last 20 when trailing in a playoff series, 8-3 ATS when facing elimination. While the champs won't have Durant, they do have Curry and Thompson now firing on all cylinders. They didn't have Thompson for the first of the two previous home games and he was still in his first game back for the second. Cousins, too, has found his form. Kerr had this to say of his volatile center: "I thought DeMarcus was fantastic tonight. He stayed ready. He didn’t get the first call for that second-quarter run. We went to [Andrew Bogut] and then with the injury we knew we needed his scoring and he stayed ready and played a brilliant game. I'm so happy for him and he's been through an awful lot himself over the last year plus his own injuries." The Warriors are 9-2 SU/ATS their last 11 when playing a Game 6. Momentum back in their corner, expect them to improve on those stats here. |
|||||||
06-10-19 | Warriors v. Raptors UNDER 212 | Top | 106-105 | Win | 100 | 56 h 11 m | Show |
I'm playing on Golden State/Toronto UNDER the total. Game 4 was a defensive affair and I expect more of the same in Game 5. Note that the UNDER is 11-5 the past 16 times that the Warriors were off b2b losses. The return of Looney and Thompson helped the Warriors be much better on that side of the ball. Looney is all about defense. While Thompson contributed offensively, he also did so defensively. Including the Game 3 result, the UNDER is now 13-5-1 the past 19 times that the Warriors were trailing in a playoff series. Meanwhile, the UNDER is now 12-6-1 when the Raptors were leading in a playoff series. The Raptors have been extremely stingy these entire playoffs. The UNDER is 3-0 the past three times that they were off b2b SU wins as an underdog. Expect those stats to improve Monday. |
|||||||
06-07-19 | Raptors v. Warriors -5.5 | Top | 105-92 | Loss | -104 | 36 h 1 m | Show |
I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE. While Durant has been ruled out, the Warriors are expecting to get Thompson back. Needless to say, that'll be a big help. After the Warriors lost Game 1, I played on them in Game 2. At the time, I said that the "Raptors rarely do anything easily." Expect them to have their hands full with the desperate champs tonight. The Raptors aren't likely to get another massive performance (6-3-pointers) from Danny Green. The Warriors know that they can't afford to lose this one. They're going to be playing with extreme intensity right from the opening tipoff. Expect them to dig deep and even up the series, covering the relatively small number along the way. |
|||||||
06-07-19 | Raptors v. Warriors UNDER 216 | Top | 105-92 | Win | 100 | 26 h 23 m | Show |
I'm playing on Toronto/GSW UNDER the total. Game 3 was high-scoring but I expect a more defensive affair in Game 4. When trailing previously in this series, after being down 1-0, the champs responded with by far their best defensive effort. They held the Raptors to a 37.2 fg percentage and a 28.9 3-point pecentage. In the other two games, the Raptors had 52.4% and 50.6% fg percentages and 39.4% and 44.7% 3-point pecentages. Now down 2-1, I expect the Warriors to again respond with a big defensive effort. They've only lost twice since 5/6 and they allowed 99 and 104 in their next game. On the other side, the Raptors have been playing tough defense these entire playoffs. Expect points to be hard to come by. |
|||||||
06-05-19 | Raptors v. Warriors UNDER 213.5 | Top | 123-109 | Loss | -110 | 60 h 5 m | Show |
I'm playing on Toronto/GSW UNDER the total. The last time that the Raptors played here, they limited the Warriors to 41 first half points and 93 overall. Naturally, the final combined score stayed well beneath the total. I expect to see plenty of defense once again on Wednesday. As of this writing, the status of Durant is still very much in the air. Likewise for Thompson. However, he's declared that he will be ready to go. Either way, I'm expecting a dogfight. We saw some extremely stingy defense down the stretch in Game 2 and I'm expecting it to carry over. The last time that the Warriors were tied in a series was at 2-2 for Game 5 against Houston. Despite a high 221 O/U line, that one produced just 203 combined points, the champs holding the Rockets to 99. The last time that the Raptors were tied in a series was at 2-2 against Milwaukee. Despite a 215.5 O/U line, that one produced just 204 combined points, the Raptors holding the Bucks to 99. Including that result, the UNDER is 4-1 when the Raptors were tied. Expect a defensive battle. |
Register for an Account Now for Free Picks and More Special Offers!
Ben Burns Basketball Top Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
12-19-19 | Jazz v. Hawks +6.5 | Top | 111-106 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
12-18-19 | Warriors v. Blazers -9 | Top | 112-122 | Win | 100 | 30 h 3 m | Show |
12-18-19 | DePaul v. Cleveland State +16.5 | Top | 73-65 | Win | 100 | 25 h 51 m | Show |
12-17-19 | Purdue v. Ohio OVER 126 | Top | 69-51 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 24 m | Show |
12-16-19 | Spurs v. Rockets -10 | Top | 107-109 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 46 m | Show |
12-16-19 | Valparaiso v. Charlotte UNDER 136.5 | Top | 57-67 | Win | 100 | 25 h 12 m | Show |
12-15-19 | Knicks v. Nuggets OVER 205.5 | Top | 105-111 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
12-14-19 | Gonzaga v. Arizona -2 | Top | 84-80 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
12-14-19 | Thunder v. Nuggets OVER 205 | Top | 102-110 | Win | 100 | 14 h 53 m | Show |
12-14-19 | Thunder v. Nuggets -6.5 | Top | 102-110 | Win | 100 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
12-14-19 | Syracuse v. Georgetown -3 | Top | 79-89 | Win | 100 | 18 h 12 m | Show |
12-13-19 | Clippers v. Wolves +5.5 | Top | 124-117 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 15 m | Show |
12-13-19 | Hornets v. Bulls -6 | Top | 83-73 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
12-13-19 | Colorado v. Colorado State UNDER 140 | Top | 56-48 | Win | 100 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
12-12-19 | Iowa v. Iowa State UNDER 157.5 | Top | 84-68 | Win | 100 | 14 h 33 m | Show |
12-11-19 | Hawks v. Bulls OVER 221.5 | Top | 102-136 | Win | 100 | 14 h 32 m | Show |
12-11-19 | Nebraska-Omaha v. Arizona -19 | Top | 49-99 | Win | 100 | 23 h 48 m | Show |
12-10-19 | Knicks v. Blazers -9 | Top | 87-115 | Win | 100 | 15 h 43 m | Show |
12-10-19 | Coppin State v. Davidson -17.5 | Top | 52-88 | Win | 100 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
12-09-19 | Minnesota +6.5 v. Iowa | Top | 52-72 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
12-08-19 | Seton Hall v. Iowa State UNDER 156 | Top | 66-76 | Win | 100 | 27 h 3 m | Show |
12-08-19 | Raptors v. 76ers -3 | Top | 104-110 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
12-07-19 | Cavs v. 76ers OVER 213 | Top | 94-141 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
12-07-19 | Davidson v. Northeastern | Top | 70-63 | Win | 100 | 22 h 43 m | Show |
12-06-19 | Warriors v. Bulls OVER 212.5 | Top | 100-98 | Loss | -100 | 26 h 46 m | Show |
12-05-19 | Louisiana Tech +8.5 v. Mississippi State | Top | 74-67 | Win | 100 | 8 h 3 m | Show |
12-05-19 | 76ers v. Wizards +7.5 | Top | 113-119 | Win | 100 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
12-04-19 | Ohio State v. North Carolina -2.5 | Top | 74-49 | Loss | -108 | 25 h 58 m | Show |
12-04-19 | Lakers v. Jazz -2 | Top | 121-96 | Loss | -115 | 27 h 35 m | Show |
12-04-19 | Lakers v. Jazz OVER 209 | Top | 121-96 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
12-03-19 | Valparaiso v. Eastern Michigan -2 | Top | 79-85 | Win | 100 | 20 h 18 m | Show |
12-02-19 | Bulls v. Kings OVER 211 | Top | 113-106 | Win | 100 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
12-02-19 | Clemson v. Minnesota OVER 131 | Top | 60-78 | Win | 100 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
12-02-19 | Jazz v. 76ers -5 | Top | 94-103 | Win | 100 | 27 h 45 m | Show |
12-01-19 | San Diego v. St Bonaventure OVER 122.5 | Top | 61-70 | Win | 100 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
12-01-19 | Thunder v. Pelicans OVER 228.5 | Top | 107-104 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 58 m | Show |
11-30-19 | Samford v. Louisiana Tech -10 | Top | 57-78 | Win | 100 | 15 h 34 m | Show |
11-30-19 | Hornets v. Bucks UNDER 228.5 | Top | 96-137 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
11-30-19 | Hawks v. Rockets -13 | Top | 111-158 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
11-29-19 | Hornets v. Pistons OVER 213 | Top | 110-107 | Win | 100 | 26 h 60 m | Show |
11-28-19 | Creighton +1 v. San Diego State | Top | 52-83 | Loss | -108 | 28 h 48 m | Show |
11-28-19 | Davidson v. Marquette UNDER 141 | Top | 63-73 | Win | 100 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
11-27-19 | Kings v. 76ers OVER 210.5 | Top | 91-97 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
11-26-19 | Mercer v. St Bonaventure OVER 141 | Top | 51-56 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
11-25-19 | Oakland v. Northern Illinois -4.5 | Top | 50-74 | Win | 100 | 23 h 60 m | Show |
11-24-19 | Long Beach State v. Arizona OVER 141.5 | Top | 67-104 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
11-24-19 | Nets v. Knicks OVER 211 | Top | 103-101 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 24 m | Show |
11-23-19 | SMU v. UNLV OVER 125 | Top | 72-68 | Win | 100 | 11 h 60 m | Show |
11-23-19 | Heat v. 76ers -4 | Top | 86-113 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
11-22-19 | Kings v. Nets -1 | Top | 97-116 | Win | 100 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
11-22-19 | Wake Forest v. Davidson UNDER 142 | Top | 82-70 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
11-21-19 | Pelicans v. Suns -4.5 | Top | 124-121 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 4 m | Show |
11-21-19 | Central Michigan v. Minnesota OVER 152.5 | Top | 57-82 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
11-20-19 | Morehead State v. Missouri OVER 133 | Top | 52-70 | Loss | -123 | 24 h 25 m | Show |
11-20-19 | Hornets v. Nets -3.5 | Top | 91-101 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
11-19-19 | Suns v. Kings -1.5 | Top | 116-120 | Win | 100 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
11-19-19 | New Mexico v. UTEP OVER 145 | Top | 63-66 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
11-19-19 | Nevada v. Davidson -7.5 | Top | 71-91 | Win | 100 | 21 h 55 m | Show |
11-18-19 | Bucks v. Bulls +7.5 | Top | 115-101 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 15 m | Show |
11-18-19 | Utah Valley v. Kentucky OVER 135.5 | Top | 74-82 | Win | 100 | 23 h 4 m | Show |
11-17-19 | Wizards v. Magic -7 | Top | 121-125 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 10 m | Show |
11-17-19 | Seton Hall v. St. Louis UNDER 140.5 | Top | 83-66 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 9 m | Show |
11-16-19 | Bucks v. Pacers +6 | Top | 102-83 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
11-16-19 | NC-Wilmington v. Davidson -16.5 | Top | 49-87 | Win | 100 | 23 h 7 m | Show |
11-14-19 | Mavs v. Knicks OVER 216 | Top | 103-106 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
11-14-19 | Alabama A&M v. Cincinnati OVER 133 | Top | 53-85 | Win | 100 | 21 h 20 m | Show |
11-13-19 | Raptors v. Blazers UNDER 221 | Top | 114-106 | Win | 100 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
11-13-19 | Grizzlies v. Hornets -115 | Top | 119-117 | Loss | -115 | 21 h 25 m | Show |
11-12-19 | Knicks v. Bulls OVER 213 | Top | 102-120 | Win | 100 | 26 h 4 m | Show |
11-11-19 | Drake v. Cincinnati UNDER 141.5 | Top | 59-81 | Win | 100 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
11-10-19 | Hawks v. Blazers -8.5 | Top | 113-124 | Win | 100 | 28 h 57 m | Show |
11-09-19 | Eastern Washington v. Seattle University -2.5 | Top | 74-66 | Loss | -108 | 26 h 14 m | Show |
11-09-19 | Celtics v. Spurs | Top | 135-115 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 30 m | Show |
11-08-19 | Kings v. Hawks OVER 219.5 | Top | 121-109 | Win | 100 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
11-08-19 | Davidson v. Auburn UNDER 146 | Top | 66-76 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
11-07-19 | Heat v. Suns OVER 217.5 | Top | 124-108 | Win | 100 | 25 h 43 m | Show |
11-07-19 | Seattle University v. Washington State UNDER 142.5 | Top | 54-85 | Win | 100 | 24 h 60 m | Show |
11-06-19 | Knicks v. Pistons OVER 207 | Top | 102-122 | Win | 100 | 9 h 39 m | Show |
11-05-19 | Heat v. Nuggets -4.5 | Top | 89-109 | Win | 100 | 27 h 53 m | Show |
11-05-19 | Ohio v. St Bonaventure -11.5 | Top | 65-53 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 40 m | Show |
11-04-19 | Rockets v. Grizzlies +6.5 | Top | 107-100 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 46 m | Show |
11-03-19 | Kings v. Knicks OVER 214.5 | Top | 113-92 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
11-02-19 | Suns v. Grizzlies +2.5 | Top | 114-105 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
10-31-19 | Heat v. Hawks OVER 216.5 | Top | 106-97 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
10-30-19 | Bucks v. Celtics UNDER 222.5 | Top | 105-116 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
10-29-19 | Mavs v. Nuggets OVER 215 | Top | 109-106 | Push | 0 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
10-28-19 | Blazers v. Spurs -4 | Top | 110-113 | Loss | -115 | 26 h 22 m | Show |
10-27-19 | Heat v. Wolves -6.5 | Top | 109-116 | Win | 100 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
10-26-19 | Magic v. Hawks OVER 217.5 | Top | 99-103 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
10-25-19 | Jazz v. Lakers UNDER 219.5 | Top | 86-95 | Win | 100 | 29 h 15 m | Show |
10-25-19 | Raptors v. Celtics -2.5 | Top | 106-112 | Win | 100 | 26 h 34 m | Show |
10-24-19 | Clippers v. Warriors +2.5 | Top | 141-122 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 25 m | Show |
10-23-19 | Kings v. Suns +2 | Top | 95-124 | Win | 100 | 38 h 57 m | Show |
10-23-19 | Thunder v. Jazz UNDER 223.5 | Top | 95-100 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
10-22-19 | Pelicans v. Raptors -5.5 | Top | 122-130 | Win | 100 | 510 h 57 m | Show |
06-13-19 | Raptors v. Warriors -3.5 | Top | 114-110 | Loss | -100 | 61 h 24 m | Show |
06-10-19 | Warriors v. Raptors UNDER 212 | Top | 106-105 | Win | 100 | 56 h 11 m | Show |
06-07-19 | Raptors v. Warriors -5.5 | Top | 105-92 | Loss | -104 | 36 h 1 m | Show |
06-07-19 | Raptors v. Warriors UNDER 216 | Top | 105-92 | Win | 100 | 26 h 23 m | Show |
06-05-19 | Raptors v. Warriors UNDER 213.5 | Top | 123-109 | Loss | -110 | 60 h 5 m | Show |