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Ben Burns Basketball Top Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-13-13 | Oklahoma City Thunder +4.5 v. Memphis Grizzlies | Top | 97-103 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 37 m | Show |
I'm playing on OKC. While they don't have Westbrook, the Thunder have been here before. They were also trailing 2-1 vs. the Grizzlies in the 2011 series and had to play Game 4 here at Memphis. It wasn't easy (triple-OT!) but they wound up winning that game. I feel that they're again providing us value here.
Kevin Durant had this to say: ''Same situation we was in a few years ago, so we know how to handle it. We can't come into practice today and with our heads down moping around because we lost the basketball game. We just got to keep moving forward, keep fighting and we'll be fine.'' Durant went on to say: "I have to put them in better position I have to make shots to free them up. I have to continue to help their confidence grow every time down. I got to do a better job. That's how I look at it.'' Even with the Game 3 loss, the Thunder are still 57-34 ATS (61-30 SU) the past few seasons, when facing an opponent which defeated them in the previous meeting. The Thunder are 17-7-1 ATS the last 25 times that they failed to score more than 85 points in their last game. It only happened once all season - and that was in their very first game - they responded with a 14-point win in their next game, scoring 106. With Durant leading the way, I expect AT LEAST another cover tonight. 10* main event |
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05-13-13 | Miami Heat v. Chicago Bulls UNDER 187.5 | Top | 88-65 | Win | 100 | 35 h 33 m | Show |
I'm playing on Miami and Chicago to finish UNDER the total. The last two games in this series have both finished above the total. That's created a little added line value as we're now getting the highest O/U line since Game 1. I feel that it will prove to be too high.
There's a lot of talk about Wade's numbers being down in the playoffs and that he didn't take many shots (7) last game. While I won't be surprised if he has a much better game here, the Heat may hurt themselves by trying too hard to get him involved. After all, they've only lost one game in the playoffs and they've hit triple-digits in each of the last two games. The Bulls score nearly the exact same amount of points at home than they do on the road. However, they're much better defensively. They allow just 91.9 ppg here, holding opposing teams to 43.3% shooting. After giving up 104 last time out and 115 their previous game, they should be determined to improve defensively tonight. The Heat are the opposite of the Bulls - they score far fewer points on the road than they do at Miami but they also allow less on the road. On the road, they're allowing 93.9 and holding teams to 43.4%. For the playoffs, the Heat are holding opposing teams to 86.6 ppg and 42.9%. Note that the UNDER is also 8-3 when the Heat played with two day's rest in between games. Even including the Game 3 result, he UNDER is 24-19-1 in Heat road games and 26-19 in Chicago home games. With the Heat now leading the series for the first time, its also worth mentioning that the UNDER is 2-0-1 in these playoffs when they had a series lead. Meanwhile, the Bulls are trailing for just the second time in these playoffs. The previous time that they were trailing in a series was after losing Game 1 at Brooklyn. They were at their best defensively in their next game, limiting the Nets to 72 points, a 90-72 victory. Including that result, the UNDER is 6-1 the last seven times that the Bulls were behind in a series. The UNDER is also 55-33 the past few seasons, when the Bulls faced an opponent which defeated them in the previous meeting. I expect a relatively low-scoring affair. 10* blue chip |
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05-11-13 | New York Knicks v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 183.5 | Top | 71-82 | Win | 100 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
I'm playing on Indiana and NY to finish UNDER the total. Both games at NY finished above the total. However, Game 2 barely did so, finishing with 184 combined points. With the series knotted up and the venue shifting, I'm expecting an even lower-scoring affair here.
The Knicks saw two of their three road games in the first round finish beneath the number. Those games had combined scores of 168, 187 and 166. In fact, the game which finished with 187 only actually had 168 points scored in regulation. In other words, all three of NY's playoff road games have produced fewer than 170 points in regulation. The Pacers are extra "stingy" here at Indiana. In their last game here, they limited Atlanta to 33.3% shooting and 83 total points. For the season, they're allowing a mere 89.9 here with visiting teams shooting only 41.4%. It should be noted that both teams have seen the UNDER go 3-2 when playing with three or more day's rest in between games. Going back a little further finds the UNDER at 10-5 the last 15 times that the Pacers played with three or more day's rest in between games. I look for a "defensive affair," the UNDER improving to 16-9 the last 25 times that the Knicks were listed as road underdogs in the 3.5 to 6 range. 10* blue chip |
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05-10-13 | San Antonio Spurs +125 v. Golden State Warriors | Top | 102-92 | Win | 125 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
I'm playing on SAN ANTONIO. Admittedly, the Warriors have played well these playoffs. They've been on a great ATS run and have shown that they deserve respect. However, I still believe that the Spurs are the more complete and better coached team. I expect their experience to come through tonight.
The Spurs are 14-4 ATS (15-3 SU) the last 18 times that they attempted to avenge a home loss. During that stretch, they're 25-13 ATS (29-9 SU) off an "upset" loss. The Spurs, 14-10 ATS the last 24 times that they were listed as road underdogs of three or fewer points, are 19-9-1 ATS (20-9 SU) the last 29 times that they were tied in a playoff series. I'll gladly grab the points but I expect them to "raise their game" and to score the upset. 10* main event |
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05-10-13 | Miami Heat v. Chicago Bulls UNDER 187 | Top | 104-94 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
I'm playing on Miami and Chicago to finish UNDER the total. After a 179 point opener, last game produced 193 points. With the series shifting to Chicago, I expect tonight's final combined score to be closer to the Game 1 number.
The Bulls score nearly the exact same amount of points at home than they do on the road. However, they're much better defensively. They allow just 91.6 ppg here, holding opposing teams to 43.2% shooting. After giving up 115 last time out, they should be determined to improve defensively tonight. Note that the UNDER is 20-8 the past few seasons, after Chicago allowed 105 or more points in its previous game. The Heat are the opposite of the Bulls - they score far fewer points on the road than they do at Miami but also allow less on the road. On the road, they're allowing 93.9 and holding teams to 43.4%. For the playoffs, the Heat are holding opposing teams to 85.3 ppg and 42.1%. The Heat shot 50% from 3-point range in Game 2 and got to the free throw line 29 times. They're not likely to shoot that many free throws or that kind of percentage from beyond the arc tonight The UNDER is 24-18-1 in Heat road games and 26-18 in Chicago home games. The UNDER is also 55-32 the past few seasons, when the Bulls faced an opponent which defeated them in the previous meeting. I expect a relatively low-scoring affair. 10* best bet |
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05-08-13 | Chicago Bulls v. Miami Heat -12 | Top | 78-115 | Win | 100 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
I'm playing on MIAMI. I won with the "under" in Game 1 (didn't play the side) and stated that "Miami might be a little rusty after the long layoff." Still, while not "shocked," I admit that I was surprised that they lost the game outright. Rust won't be a factor tonight though. Neither will complacency. Having received their "wake up call," I expect the Heat to be at their best tonight.
Heat coach Erik Spoelstra had this to say: |
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05-07-13 | Memphis Grizzlies v. Oklahoma City Thunder -2.5 | Top | 99-93 | Loss | -109 | 33 h 15 m | Show |
I'm playing on OKLAHOMA CITY. The Grizzlies covered in the opener. However, they squandered a golden opportunity to steal the outright victory. I believe this situation favors the Thunder.
Many will look at Game 1 and see that the Grizzlies easily could have won. That will cause them to back them here. However, it often doesn't work that way. Second chances don't always come around. The Grizzlies had their chance to win the opener and they didn't take advantage of the opportunity. Now, the Thunder have had their "wake up call." I expect them to be better than they were in the opener. Despite failing to cover on Sunday, the Thunder are still a profitable 12-3 ATS (13-2 SU) the last 15 times that they faced a team which allows 91 or fewer points per game. The Thunder have beaten the Grizzlies six of the last eight here at OKC. Prior to Sunday, the previous five of those victories all came by at least seven points. The Grizzlies did manage to steal Game 1 when these teams met in the 2011 playoffs. However, the Thunder came back a solid 111-102 victory in Game 2. I expect another win and cover here. 10* Main Event |
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05-07-13 | Indiana Pacers v. New York Knicks UNDER 183.5 | Top | 79-105 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
I'm playing on Indiana and NY to finish UNDER the total. The fact that Game 1 was high-scoring has provided us with some added line value, as we've got a couple of extra points to work with. I'm expecting a low-scoring affair.
Indiana is an excellent defensive team. Prior to allowing 95 against the Knicks on the weekend, the Pacers had allowed 73 and 83 points in their previous two games. Over their last five games, they're allowing an average of 88.6 pts while holding opposing teams to a 39.5% field goal percentage. The 90.7 points that the Pacers allow per game is the second best in the NBA and the best in the East. The 91.6 that they allow on the road is tied (with Memphis) for the best in the NBA. The 42% field goal percentage that the Pacers allow is the best in the NBA. While we didn't see it in Game 1, the Knicks have also proven to be very capable defensively. Just ask Boston. Even factoring in the Game 1 stats - and an OT game in the first series - they're still allowing a mere 85.1 points per game during the playoffs. Opposing teams are shooting 42.3%. The UNDER is now 5-2 in their playoff games and 11-5 their last 16 playoff games. With the Knicks losing the opener, note that the UNDER is 30-20 the last 50 times that the Knicks were off an "upset" loss, including 12-7 this season. Even factoring in the Game 1 result, the UNDER is still 7-4 the last 11 times that the Pacers played here and 10-6 the last 16 meetings between these teams overall. This season's two regular season meetings here had scores of 170 and 164, both staying below the total by double-digits. I expect another defensive affair here. 10* blue chip |
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05-06-13 | Golden State Warriors v. San Antonio Spurs -8.5 | Top | 127-129 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
I'm playing on SAN ANTONIO. Both teams played well in the opening round. The Warriors upset the Nuggets. The Spurs dismantled the Lakers. I expect the Spurs to be the team which keeps on rolling this evening.
A look at the season series reveals that the home team won all four games. The Warriors won both at Golden State but the Spurs won both at San Antonio, most recently a 104-93 win on 3/20. Speaking of double-digit victories, all four of the Spurs' victories in the first round came by double-digits. The Spurs have long dominated the Warriors here. In fact, the Warriors haven't won here in well over a decade - since Duncan was still in college. While Curry is obviously an outstanding shooter, I believe the Spurs simply have more weapons. In addition to the "Big 3," Kawhi Leonard has developed into a star. The Spurs are 25-14-2 ATS the last 41 times that they were listed as home favorites in the 6.5 to 9 range, going 10-4-1 ATS their last 15 in that role. Note that the extremely well-coached Spurs are 5-2 ATS (6-1 SU) when playing with three or more day's rest in between games. They outscored teams by greater than 10 points per game this season. While the Warriors are in unchartered waters, the Spurs have been here plenty of times. They swept their second round matchup (vs. the Clippers) last year, covering three of those games. That sweep began with a 108-92 victory in Game 1 and was followed by a 105-88 blowout in Game 2. I expect them to start things off with another double-digit win tonight. 10* personal favorite |
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05-06-13 | Chicago Bulls v. Miami Heat UNDER 186 | Top | 93-86 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
I'm playing on Chicago and Miami to finish UNDER the total. The Bulls/Nets series was higher-scoring than anticipated. However, the Bulls are now up against a Miami team which is allowing a mere 85.2 points in its playoff games. I'm expecting Game 1 to be low-scoring in nature.
The Bulls' last two games have started out high-scoring and then seen lower-scoring second halves. I don't expect Chicago to get off to the same type of fast start here though. Miami is known for its star power and is a team capable of scoring. However, the Heat are a lot better defensively than many realize. The Heat allowed 77 points last time out. It was the seventh straight game that they held their opponent to double-digits in scoring. They've played 31 games since the start of March and haven't allowed more than 103 in any of them. In 27 of those games, the opposing team failed to hit triple-digits in scoring. The Bulls, who won Game 7 at Brooklyn when they were listed as an underdog, have seen the UNDER go 18-10 the past 28 times that they were off an "upset" win. During that time, the UNDER is also 54-32 when they played with "revenge" from an earlier loss. The Heat, who won 88-77 last time out, have seen the UNDER go 23-18-1 off a double-digit win. Going back further finds the UNDER at 66-50-4 the last 120 times that they were in that situation. A look at the series history between these teams shows that six of the last nine meetings have fallen below the total. The UNDER is 3-1 the last four times that the Heat hosted the Bulls and 11-7 the last 18. While the Bulls figure to still be exhausted, the Heat could potentially be a little rusty out of the gate. I don't expect that to effect the defense though. Rather, I expect to see intensity on the defensive side of the ball right from the opening tip and for the final combined score to ultimately prove lower than most will be expecting. 10* blue chip |
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05-05-13 | Memphis Grizzlies v. Oklahoma City Thunder UNDER 186.5 | Top | 91-93 | Win | 100 | 21 h 47 m | Show |
I'm playing on Oklahoma City and Memphis to finish UNDER the total. These teams faced each other three times in the regular season. Those games got progressively lower-scoring. The first meeting, which came back in mid-November, finished with 204 points. The second, which came back at the end of January, produced 195 points. The most recent meeting, which came on 3/20, finished at less than 189, a 90-89 victory for the Grizzlies.
Everyone knows that the Grizzlies are stingy defensively. They allow only 89.6 points per game. Many still don't realize how good the Thunder are on that side of the ball. They hold opposing teams to 42.5% shooting (best in the west and second in the league) and that number dips down to 41.8% here at OKC. In fact, these teams are #1 and #2 in the Western Conference, in terms of defensive field goal percentage. These teams, who met in the playoffs two years ago, don't like each other and I expect a high level of defensive intensity from the start. Kevin Durant said this of the Grizzlies: "'That's their DNA. That's what they do, and that's what we do. Guys are going to go out there pushing and shoving, and it's going to be a really physical series. That's what both teams do. That's what we hang our hats on." While the Grizzlies have been a profitable "under" team all season, the Thunder have really been a profitable "under" team in recent weeks. In fact, with five of their six games against the Rockets dipping below the total, the UNDER is now 13-4 their last 17 games. I look for this one to prove lower-scoring than most will be expecting. 10* blue chip |
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05-04-13 | CHICAGO GM7 v. BROOKLYN GM7 UNDER 182 | Top | 99-93 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
I'm playing on Chicago and Brooklyn to finish UNDER the total. Thursday's Game saw 114 points scored in the first half. That's when the defense came to life. Only 73 points were scored in the entire second half, neither team reaching the 40 mark. I expect that type of defensive intensity to carry itself over to tonight's Game 7 showdown.
True, the last three games have topped the total. However, as noted, the defensive intensity really picked up in the second half of the last game. Note that the UNDER is 3-1 this season, when the Bulls were off three or more consecutive games which finished above the total. Note that the shooting percentages came way down (from the previous two games) last time out. The Bulls have seen the UNDER go 9-4 the last 13 times that they were listed as road underdogs in the 6.5 to 9 range. During that stretch, the UNDER is also still a lucrative 54-31 when the Bulls faced a team which defeated them in the previous meeting. The only previous time this series was tied, the teams combined for a mere 155 points. I'm expecting another "defensive battle." 10* best bet |
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05-03-13 | INDIANA GM6 v. ATLANTA GM6 UNDER 188 | Top | 81-73 | Win | 100 | 28 h 19 m | Show |
I'm playing on Indiana and Atlanta to finish UNDER the total. The last game finished above the total. However, it did so by less than a bucket. I expect an even lower-scoring affair here.
The Pacers got back to what they do best last game, playing stingy defense. They limited the Hawks to 83 points on 33.3% shooting. Atlanta's Kyle Korver said this of the Pacers defense last game: "I don't know if they did anything differently. They just played at a high level. That was the best game they've played. We didn't get any easy looks, even on the fast breaks. We had a lot of tough layups. We had some close shots, but they were still contested. We never really got into a good offensive rhythm.'' The Hawks know they need to try and match that defensive intensity, if they want to try and keep this series alive. Coach Drew commented: "There does come a point where it stops being about X's and O's. That's where we are. It's a two-game series and obviously we want to extend it by winning. But X's and O's, it won't be about that. It will be about how hard we play between those lines, how hard we compete." The UNDER is 28-22 the last 50 times that the Pacers held their previous opponent to 85 or fewer points, 15-12 this season. During that time, the UNDER is also 7-5 after the Hawks scored 85 or less. The two games here at Atlanta have averaged 176 points; the UNDER is now 23-19 when the Pacers have played away from Indiana. I expect the Pacers to play the type of defense we saw in Game 5, only this time, I expect the Hawks to also match that intensity. 10* blue chip |
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05-02-13 | Brooklyn Nets v. Chicago Bulls UNDER 184 | Top | 95-92 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 22 m | Show |
I'm playing on Chicago and Brooklyn to finish UNDER the total. After back-to-back high-scoring games, we're now getting the highest O/U line of the series to work with. I believe it will prove to be too high.
The Bulls have seen the UNDER go 9-2 when playing a home game where the O/U line ranged from 180 to 184.5. Going back further and we find the UNDER at 18-9 the past few seasons, when they played a home game with a total in that range. During that stretch, the UNDER is also 54-30 when the Bulls faced an opponent which defeated them in the previous meeting and 20-7 when they were off a game in which they allowed 105 or more points. Even counting the triple-OT marathon the last game here, the UNDER is still 6-3 the last nine times the Bulls hosted the Nets. Note that one of those "overs" finished with 181 points (O/U line was 177.5) so that would have also been an "under" with tonight's higher O/U line. Overall, the UNDER is now 73-56 in games played on this floor the past few seasons. I feel this number is providing us with excellent value and I expect those numbers to improve this evening. 10* best bet |
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04-30-13 | Memphis Grizzlies v. Los Angeles Clippers UNDER 180 | Top | 103-93 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
I'm playing on Memphis and LA to finish UNDER the total. This is the highest O/U line of the series to date. I feel that it will prove to be too high.
As you're likely aware, these teams also met in last year's playoffs. Just like this year, three of the first four games finished above the number. So, what happened in Game 5 and beyond? All three of the final games (Games 5-7) stayed below the total, including a 172 point affair in Game 5. That was the final game of the series that had an O/U line in the 180s. (After that, they dipped to 178.5 and 176 for the final two games.) Including Game 5 and Game 7 last season, the Clippers have seen the UNDER go 2-0 when tied in a playoff series the past couple of seasons while the Grizzlies have seen the UNDER go 5-1, when in the same situation. With the UNDER also at 22-9 when the Grizzlies allowed 85 or fewer points in their previous game, I'm expecting another "defensive battle." 10* best bet |
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04-30-13 | Golden State Warriors v. Denver Nuggets -7.5 | Top | 100-107 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
I'm playing on DENVER. The Nuggets have their backs against the wall and find themselves in a "must win" situation. I expect them to respond with their very best game of the series.
Mark Jackson said this of the Nuggets: "They have a great coach. George Karl is going to have them prepared too, so we're anticipating the biggest fight of the season we've had all year on our hands.'' True, they failed to cover in Game 1, when the O/U line was 211.5. (It dipped to 208.5 in Game 2.) However, even with that ATS loss, the Nuggets are still an outstanding 12-2 ATS when playing a home game with an O/U line of 210 or greater, going a perfect 14-0 SU in those games. The Nuggets have lost three games in a row, failing to cover in four in a row. They haven't lost four in a row all season and they also haven't failed to cover five in a row all season. The only previous time that they failed to cover four in a row, they responded with an outright win (as an underdog) at Indiana in their next game. Lets keep in mind that the Warriors were 19-22 on the road this season and that prior to this series, they were 3-18 their previous 21 games without David Lee in the lineup. Lets also remember that the Nuggets were 38-3 at home. I expect them to force a Game 6, earning the cover along the way. 10* main event |
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04-29-13 | Indiana Pacers +2 v. Atlanta Hawks | Top | 91-102 | Loss | -108 | 29 h 2 m | Show |
I'm playing on INDIANA. I successfully backed the Hawks in Game 3. As you likely know, Atlanta won that game in blowout fashion. I never did state that I thought the Hawks were a better team though. Rather, I just didn't think that they were going to get swept and felt that they might be a little more hungry. After getting embarrassed last time out, I expect the Pacers to bring their "A Game" and for that to be enough to result in a win/cover.
As I acknowledged in my Game 3 analysis, the Pacers have struggled here at Atlanta. However, this is arguably the best Indiana team in a long time, a stronger and more complete team than the one which lost many games here. I feel that they're ready to break through with a win here. Admittedly, the Pacers were pretty bad in Game 3. However, lets not get carried away by one Game 3 loss. The Pacers know all about that. Last year, they crushed the Miami Heat (94-75) in Game 3. However, the Heat responded by dominating every game the rest of the way. I believe that the well-coached Pacers are also very capable at responding to a poor Game 3, as they're usually at their best off a bad loss. They were 10-4 SU/ATS off a double-digit defeat. On the other hand, the Hawks were 7-12 ATS off a double-digit win, falling to 24-35 ATS in that situation the past few seasons. Note that they were also 1-5 ATS off a game in which they allowed 85 or fewer points. I expect the Pacers to exorcise their "Atlanta demons," taking a stranglehold on the series. 10* |
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04-29-13 | Chicago Bulls v. Brooklyn Nets UNDER 180 | Top | 91-110 | Loss | -109 | 28 h 25 m | Show |
I'm playing on Chicago and Brooklyn to finish UNDER the total. As you probably know, these teams played a marathon of a game against each other on Saturday. The final score was 142-134. Needless to say, I'm expecting a much lower-scoring affair this evening.
Its true that Saturday's game was already high-scoring, even without all the OT periods. However, before reading too much into that, lets not forget that the previous two games had combined scores of 155 and 172. The Bulls are a team that rarely gets involved in too many high-scoring games in a row. Not only did they see the UNDER go 8-3 after scoring 105 or more in their previous game, they also saw the UNDER go 8-3 after allowing 105 or more in their previous game. Chicago's Carlos Boozer had this to say: '' ... For us, we just have to stay focused, poised, tighten up our defense.'' Looking back further finds the UNDER at 20-6 the past few seasons, after the Bulls allowed 105 or more points in their previous game. During that stretch, the UNDER is 74-53 when the Bulls had played a team with a winning record and 9-6 in their first round playoff games. I expect those stats to improve here, as defense moves back to center stage. 10* best bet |
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04-28-13 | Denver Nuggets -118 v. Golden State Warriors | Top | 101-115 | Loss | -118 | 21 h 21 m | Show |
I'm playing on DENVER on the moneyline. As you're likely aware, the Warriors have a 2-1 lead in this series and have covered the spread in all three games. While they certainly deserve credit for playing well, I'm still not convinced that they're the better team. Not without David Lee anyway. This evening, I expect the Nuggets to rise to the occasion and even the series.
While they're known for being a much better team at Denver, the Nuggets also tend to play very well on the road in games which are expected to be high-scoring. In fact, prior to the (narrow) Game 3 loss, the Nuggets had been a perfect 9-0 (7-2 ATS) in their previous nine road games which had an O/U line of 210 or greater. Even factoring in Friday's result, they're still 22-8 ATS the last 30 times that they played a road game with an O/U line of 210 or greater, 7-3 ATS (9-1 SU) their last 10. It should also be noted that even with the Game 3 victory, the Warriors are still 1-6 ATS their last seven home games, when the O/U line was at 210 or greater. At this time of the year, many players are banged-up - and that's true of some of Denver's players too. However, I believe the Nuggets have more depth than the Warriors and feel its worth mentioning that both Bogut and Curry are nursing sore ankles for Golden State. Needless to say, they are both very important players for Golden State, even more so without Lee on the floor. Even with the three ATS wins to start the series, the Warriors are still 10-13 ATS their last 23 against teams with a winning record; the Nuggets are 15-8 ATS their last 23 against winning teams. The Nuggets easily could be winning this series and aren't about to panic. As coach Karl noted: "I think the series is a competitive series. It's not lopsided. It's not time for radical, panic decision-making. It's time to play a little bit better, get a little bit more together, find some more confidence and do the things to win playoff basketball games." While the Warriors were 1-6 ATS on Sundays this season, the Nuggets were 5-3 ATS, going 6-2 SU. I expect them to improve on those stats here, playing their best game of the series. 10* personal favorite |
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04-28-13 | New York Knicks v. Boston Celtics OVER 181 | Top | 90-97 | Win | 100 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
I'm playing on Boston and NY to finish OVER the total. With the Celtics failing to crack the 80 point mark in any of the first three games, this O/U line has fallen yet again. After starting up near the 190 mark for Game 1, its now gone down after every game. I believe it will prove to be too low.
The Celtics know this series is very likely finished. They don't want to go down without a fight though and they know they absolutely need to score more points. True, the first three games stayed below the total. However, keep in mind that the Celtics' previous five games had all finished above the total. Also, note that the OVER is 5-1 the last six times that Boston had seen its previous three games stay below the number. Games here are still averaging 191.9 points while NY road games are still averaging 193.9. I expect the OVER to improve to 8-4 when the Knicks were off an "upset" win. 10* best bet |
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04-27-13 | INDIANA GM3 v. ATLANTA GM3 -2 | Top | 69-90 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
I'm playing on ATLANTA. I won with the Pacers in Game 1 of this series. As you're likely aware, they followed it up with another convincing win in Game 2. However, with the series shifting to Atlanta for Game 3, I expect the "desperate" Hawks to respond with a victory of their own.
Coach Larry Drew had this to say: "It's about adjustments. We've done some good things in the first couple of games, but there are some things we need to do better. Some changes may push us over the edge in that respect." Admittedly, the Hawks had trouble covering large pointspreads here this season. However, they did still manage a 25-16 SU record here. Note that record is considerably better than Indiana's 19-21 mark on the road. When the pointspread was smaller, as it is today, the Hawks had much better success. In fact, they were 3-1 ATS when listed as home favorites of three or fewer points. On the other hand, some might be surprised to learn that the Pacers are a dismal 1-8 ATS the last nine times that they were listed as road underdogs of three or fewer points, going just 5-13-1 ATS in that role the past few seasons. Back in their own building, the Hawks should have plenty of confidence, as they have dominated the Pacers here. In fact, they've beaten Indiana 11 straight times here. A closer look reveals that every single one of those wins came by a minimum of three points. I expect more of the same here. 10* personal favorite |
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04-26-13 | New York Knicks v. Boston Celtics OVER 182.5 | Top | 90-76 | Loss | -111 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
I'm playing on Boston and NY to finish OVER the total. Since a high-scoring first half in Game 1, this has been a low-scoring series. Both games have fallen beneath the number. That has caused the O/U line to come down. This is the lowest O/U line of the series to date. I believe that it will prove to be too low.
As we've already seen in these playoffs, a change in venue can often bring a change in tempo. Just because the first two games of a series finish "under" (or "over") doesn't mean that the third game will do the same. Often, the opposite is true. After failing to reach the 80-point mark in each of the first two games, the Celtics will be determined to score more points tonight. Considering that they've scored more than 90 points (averaging 101.4) in each of their last five games here, I expect them to do so. For the season, the Celtics are averaging 98.5 points on this floor, hitting 47.7% of their field goals. Overall, games here are averaging 192.4 points. The Knicks have shown an ability to score, regardless of where they're playing. They averaged 97.2 points per game on the road this season. However, the also allowed 97.4. (That's an average of 194.6.) The OVER is 11-8-1 the last 20 times that the Celtics were home favorites of three or fewer points. During that stretch, the OVER is also 6-3 when the Celts were trailing in a playoff series. All things considered, I believe this number is too low. 10* best bet |
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04-25-13 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Memphis Grizzlies UNDER 180 | Top | 82-94 | Win | 100 | 31 h 59 m | Show |
I'm playing on LA and Memphis to finish UNDER the total. The first two games of this series have both finished above the total, stinging me in the process. With the series now shifting venues, I'm expecting a lower-scoring affair Thursday.
Looking back to last year's series between these two teams and we find that the first two games also finished above the total. However, when the venue shifted for Game 3, the final combined score of 173 was much lower. While the Clippers score fewer points on the road, the Grizzlies allow considerably less at home. In fact, the 87 points which they allow per game here ranks #1 in the entire league. The fact that Marc Gasol won the Defensive Player of the Year, despite playing in a small market, says a lot. Back at home, the Grizzlies should be able to do a better job in controlling (slowing down) the pace. For the season, the UNDER is a profitable 27-14 in games played here. More of the same tonight. 10* |
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04-25-13 | Miami Heat v. Milwaukee Bucks OVER 194 | Top | 104-91 | Win | 100 | 19 h 21 m | Show |
I'm playing on Miami and Milwaukee to finish OVER the total. The first two games of this series have both fallen below the total. In each case, the Bucks have failed to reach the 90 point mark. Those results have worked in our favor, as we're now getting a lower O/U line to work with. Despite the lower O/U line, I expect this to be the highest scoring game of the series, to date.
While the Bucks had trouble scoring at Miami, they typically score plenty of points at home. They average 96.5 ppg on the road but 101.3 here at Milwaukee. They're also a team which actually also allows more points at home than they do on the road. They allow 99.6 ppg on the road but 101.2 here at Milwaukee. In other words, games here are averaging greater than 202 points this season. Not surprisingly, the OVER is 24-17 here. Miami's lone 2013 visit here stayed below the total. However, that O/U line was 202 and the final score was 201. While the Bucks have seen the OVER go 3-2 the last five times that they were listed as home underdogs in the 6.5 to 9 range, the Heat have seen the OVER go 5-3 when listed as road favorites in the 6.5 to 9 range. The Heat have scored 105 or more in four of their last six and are capable of putting points o the board anywhere. Meanwhile, the Bucks should be able to score more on their home floor. All things considered, I feel this number is a little on the low side. 10* |
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04-24-13 | Los Angeles Lakers v. San Antonio Spurs OVER 186.5 | Top | 91-102 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
I'm playing on LA and San Antonio to finish OVER the total. As you're surely aware, the Lakers are without Kobe Bryant. Needless to say, that's significantly changed the complexion of their team.
In one of the first games after Kobe's injury, I played on the "under," recognizing that the Lakers were going to need to play solid defense in order to give them a chance to win and feeling that there hadn't yet been enough of an adjustment to Kobe's absence. That game (vs. Houston) went to OT and still finished below the total. However, including a very low-scoring series opener, the Lakers have now seen three straight games stay below the total. That's caused their O/U lines to start dropping like a rock. I believe that the value has now shifted the other way. Keep in mind that the O/U line was 214 when these teams played here in January. It dipped down to 193 when they played at LA 10 days ago. It went down further for Game 1 of this series, going down to 191. Now, we're even lower still, as the line is the 180s. Considering that games here are averaging greater than 198 points this season, I believe thats too low. Granted, Howard is an excellent defender. However, lets not forget that guards like Nash and Blake are not. The Lakers have seen the OVER go 4-1 the last five times that their previous three games stayed below the total. Looking at some other stats and we find the OVER at 4-0 the last four times that the Lakers scored 85 or fewer points in their previous game and 13-7 their last 20 in that situation. Even with the Game 1 result, the OVER is also 9-3 the last 12 times that the Lakers were listed as road underdogs in the 6.5 to 9 range. With the OVER also at 27-17-1 the last 45 times that they were trailing in a playoff series, I look for the final combined score to top the low number. 9* main event |
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04-24-13 | Atlanta Hawks v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 188 | Top | 98-113 | Loss | -115 | 36 h 16 m | Show |
I'm playing on Atlanta and Indiana to finish UNDER the total. These teams played a relatively high-scoring Game 1. That has created a little extra line value here. It doesn't mean that we need to expect another high-scoring affair here though. In fact, I'm expecting a much lower-scoring game.
Take a look at the Chicago/Brooklyn series. The first game produced 195 points, the home team (Brooklyn) winning in a blowout. The O/U line went up a bit for Game 2, yet that one finished with only 172 points, the road team (Chicago) improving its defense significantly. Even including the Game 1 result, the Hawks have still seen the UNDER go 32-16 their last 48 first round playoff games, 9-4 their last 13. During that stretch, the UNDER is also 23-14-1 after the Hawks allowed 105 or more points in their previous game and 12-6 after three or more consecutive losses. Atlanta coach Larry Drew made these comments about what he wants from his team: "...we have to come out and be more of a presence from a physicality standpoint. Not to hurt anybody, but doing things harder. Doing things with much more physicality.'' While the Hawks will certainly be looking to improve their defense, the Pacers almost always play stingy defense here. They allowed fewer than 90 points here on the season and visiting teams have only shot 41.4% here. Bottom line: This is the highest O/U line these teams have seen this season and I feel it will prove to be too high. 10* blue chip |
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04-23-13 | Golden State Warriors v. Denver Nuggets -8 | Top | 131-117 | Loss | -104 | 16 h 25 m | Show |
I'm playing on DENVER. The fact that the Warriors "kept it close" in Game 1, nearly pulling off the upset, will have many looking to grab the points here. I'm not one of them.
While there are obviously examples on both sides, its been my experience that road teams which squander an opportunity to "steal" Game 1 often don't perform as well in Game 2. Making matters worse for the Warriors is the loss of David Lee. After recording yet another "double-double," Lee went down in the fourth quarter of Game 1. Think that's not a blow? Consider that Lee led the NBA in "double-doubles" with 56 this season. He averaged 18.5 points, 11.2 rebounds and 3.5 assists. Golden State coach Mark Jackson noted: "We can't replace him, and we know that. And that's the thing we have to know right away. He's an All-Star power forward who's had an incredible year ... " While the Warriors are now without Lee, the Nuggets are expecting to have Kenneth Faried back in the lineup. The player nicknamed ''Manimal'' provides an "energy boost." Andrew Bogut said this of Faried: "He's an all-effort guy. It's not like they're going to throw the ball into the post and let him get a one-on-one. That's not his strength. His strength is offensive rebounds, hustle points, loose balls. He's one of the best in the league in doing that." While the Warriors are 19-24 on the road, the Nuggets are now 39-3 at home. That includes a 28-14 mark at the betting window. Despite failing to cover in Game 1, the Nuggets are 19-9 ATS against teams which average 99 or more points per game. They got their "wake up call" in Game 1 and I expect them to "bounce back" with a double-digit win tonight. 9* personal favorite |
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04-22-13 | Memphis Grizzlies v. Los Angeles Clippers UNDER 181.5 | Top | 91-93 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 43 m | Show |
I'm playing on Memphis and LA to finish UNDER the total. I lost with the "under" in the opener of this series. However, that won't keep me from coming right back with it again tonight.
Much of what I wrote in my Game 1 analysis remains valid. So, I've included an excerpt from that writeup below. Before getting to that, I'd like to point out a couple of things. First off, the O/U line has climbed a bit from Game 1, giving us some additional line value. Next, note that the UNDER is 6-3 when the Grizzlies were off a double-digit loss. Here's what I had to say before Saturday's game: "...Since playing a relatively high-scoring game against each other way back on Halloween night, these teams have seen all three meetings stay beneath the number. I'm expecting another defensive affair this evening. ??The Grizzlies saw six straight games dip below the total in mid-March. That was followed by a stretch of five straight "overs." Since the calender hit April, however, they've seen eight of nine games stay beneath the number.?? For the season, the Grizzlies have seen the UNDER go 48-33. They've held eight of their last nine opponents to 91 or fewer points, none of those teams reaching triple-digits. Last time out, they permitted a mere 70 points, an 86-70 victory against Utah. That's the third time in the last five games that the Grizzlies kept an opponent to less than 80 points. Note that the UNDER is 22-7 after their held their previous opponent to 85 or fewer points.?? Its also worth mentioning that the UNDER is 16-6 when the Grizzlies attempted to avenge an earlier loss and 11-6 when they've been listed as underdogs.?? As you probably recall, these teams also met in the first round of last year's playoffs. So, they're very familiar with each other. The only real difference for Memphis is that they've now got Price instead of Gay. I'd argue that Price is a better defender while Gay is better on offense. ?? Granted, the Clippers haven't been quite as quite as "defensive" as the Grizzlies. However, they are certainly capable on that side of the ball and they have seen five of six games dip below the number, when matched up against teams which allow 91 or fewer points per game. ??The Clippers enter the playoffs having seen three of their last four games stay below the total. Their most recent game here at LA saw them permit a mere 77 points, a 93-77 victory vs. the Blazers ... " I expect a "defensive battle" tonight. 10* Western Conf. Main Event |
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04-22-13 | Chicago Bulls v. Brooklyn Nets UNDER 183.5 | Top | 90-82 | Win | 100 | 11 h 0 m | Show |
I'm playing on Chicago and Brooklyn to finish UNDER the total. You're likely aware that the Nets blew out the Bulls in the opener. That 106-89 final score surpassed the total. I'm expecting a considerably lower-scoring affair this evening.
The Bulls have seen the UNDER go 7-3 the last 10 times that they allowed 105 or more points in their previous game. Going back further finds the UNDER at 19-6 the last 25 times that they'd allowed 105 or more points in their previous game. Clearly, this team tends to bounce back from a poor defensive game with an improved effort on that side of the ball. During that stretch, the UNDER is also 53-30 when the Bulls attempted to avenge an earlier loss. Additionally, we find the UNDER at 5-1 when the Bulls were trailing in a playoff series. The high-scoring Game 1 has helped us in terms of line value, as we're now getting a higher O/U line to work with. I feel it will prove to be too high. 10* best bet |
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04-21-13 | Atlanta Hawks v. Indiana Pacers -6.5 | Top | 90-107 | Win | 100 | 69 h 32 m | Show |
I'm playing on INDIANA. Neither of these teams played particularly well down the stretch. Atlanta lost its final two regular season games and five of its last seven. The Hawks are only 2-8 ATS their last 10. Indiana hasn't been any better. The Pacers lost their last three games and five of their last six. They were 0-6 ATS during that stretch. Playing at home, I believe that the Pacers will be the team which is able to bounce back and return to form.
Homecourt is important to almost every team and that's certainly the case for both of these clubs. The Hawks were 25-16 at home but only 19-22 on the road this season. On the other hand, the Pacers were 30-11 at home, going 19-21 on the road. They outscored teams by a 97.6 to 89.9 margin here. Visiting teams shot just 41.2% here. Not surprisingly, given the above stats, the home team won all four meetings during the regular season. The Pacers won the two games here by an average of 8.5 points. Despite the late season struggles, I believe that the well-coached Pacers will be ready to go. Indiana coach Vogel had this to say: ''The guys are really dialed in. Everything out of your mouth, they're nodding their heads and they're coaching themselves.'' The Pacers have only lost three in a row one previous time in 2013. After dropping three straight in late January, they responded with a 98-79 victory. I expect this well-coached team to again bounce back, picking up the cover along the way. 10* personal favorite |
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04-20-13 | Memphis Grizzlies v. Los Angeles Clippers UNDER 180 | Top | 91-112 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 26 m | Show |
I'm playing on Memphis and LA to finish UNDER the total. Since playing a relatively high-scoring game against each other way back on Halloween night, these teams have seen all three meetings stay beneath the number. I'm expecting another defensive affair this evening.
The Grizzlies saw six straight games dip below the total in mid-March. That was followed by a stretch of five straight "overs." Since the calender hit April, however, they've seen eight of nine games stay beneath the number. For the season, the Grizzlies have seen the UNDER go 48-33. They've held eight of their last nine opponents to 91 or fewer points, none of those teams reaching triple-digits. Last time out, they permitted a mere 70 points, an 86-70 victory against Utah. That's the third time in the last five games that the Grizzlies kept an opponent to less than 80 points. Note that the UNDER is 22-7 after their held their previous opponent to 85 or fewer points. Its also worth mentioning that the UNDER is 16-6 when the Grizzlies attempted to avenge an earlier loss and 11-6 when they've been listed as underdogs. As you probably recall, these teams also met in the first round of last year's playoffs. So, they're very familiar with each other. The only real difference for Memphis is that they've now got Price instead of Gay. I'd argue that Price is a better defender while Gay is better on offense. Granted, the Clippers haven't been quite as quite as "defensive" as the Grizzlies. However, they are certainly capable on that side of the ball and they have seen five of six games dip below the number, when matched up against teams which allow 91 or fewer points per game. The Clippers enter the playoffs having seen three of their last four games stay below the total. Their most recent game here at LA saw them permit a mere 77 points, a 93-77 victory vs. the Blazers. Don't be surprised to see a similar final combined score here. 10* blue chip |
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04-20-13 | Chicago Bulls +5 v. Brooklyn Nets | Top | 89-106 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 3 m | Show |
I'm playing on CHICAGO. These teams faced each other four times during the regular season, most recently about three weeks ago. The Bulls won that 4/4 meeting, which was played here at Brooklyn, by a score of 92-90. The Bulls also won both meetings at Chicago, while losing the first game at Brooklyn by four points.
Including those results, the Bulls are 13-8 ATS the last 21 times that they were road underdogs in the 3.5 to 6 range, going 7-4 ATS their last 11 in that situation. Meanwhile, the Nets are 8-15 ATS their last 23 as home favorites in the 3.5 to 6 range, going 6-9 ATS their last 15 in that role. Overall, the Nets were 16-23-2 ATS here while the Bulls are 23-17-1 ATS on the road. While the Bulls sometimes struggled against lower tier competition, they were typically tough against better teams. They finished the season at 24-21 ATS (25-20 SU) against teams with a winning record, going 70-52-1 ATS (72-51 SU) against winning teams the past few seasons. On the other hand, the Nets often had their way against weak teams but were only 14-24-1 ATS (15-24 SU) against teams with a winning record. While Deron Williams may (arguably) be the best player on the floor, I believe that the Bulls have more depth and a more complete team. Perhaps more importantly, I also believe that they've got an edge in the coaching department. The Nets weren't able to beat the Bulls by more than four points in any of this season's meetings, three of those being decided by four or less. I won't be surprised if this one also comes down to the wire and am grabbing all the points I can get. 10* best bet |
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04-17-13 | Houston Rockets v. Los Angeles Lakers UNDER 203.5 | Top | 95-99 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
I'm playing on LA and Houston to finish UNDER the total. Many are likely going to look at this total and believe that its too low. After all, the Rockets have been a high-scoring team and they've played three high-scoring games against the Lakers already this season. This is a different Laker team though and the Rockets have quietly been a profitable "under" team for quite a few weeks now. I believe that the line will prove to be too high.
As you're likely aware, the Lakers are without Kobe Bryant, as well as Steve Nash. The Lakers shot just 36.5% on Sunday. However, they stepped up their defense, allowing only 86 points, and still won the game. While Howard and Gasol were both out for the last meeting with Houston, those two big men are now the focal point for the Lakers. Howard remains one of the best defensive players in the league. True, the Rockets are off a pair of high-scoring games, both of which finished above the number. However, both those games came against "non-playoff teams." Their most recent game against a "playoff team" produced only 160 combined points. Overall, the UNDER is still 11-6 their last 17 games. The Rockets have seen the UNDER go 5-2 when playing a road game with an O/U line in the 200 to 204.5 range. That brings the UNDER go 13-6 their last 19 in that situation. During that stretch, the UNDER is also 14-7 when the Rockets have been listed as road underdogs of three or fewer points. Meanwhile, the Lakers have seen the UNDER go 3-0 when they've been listed as home favorites of three or fewer points. Games here are averaging 200.1 points on the season. I won't be surprised when this one finishes below that mark. 10* blue chip |
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04-17-13 | Cleveland Cavaliers v. Charlotte Bobcats -2.5 | Top | 98-105 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
I'm playing on CHARLOTTE. Although this is technically a "meaningless" game, I expect both teams to want to win it. That said, I believe the Bobcats will want it a little more. Throw in the fact that they're also currently playing much better and I believe this low line is very fair.
Note that Charlotte's overall home record (14-26) is four games better than Cleveland's 10-30 mark on the road. The Cavaliers would like to close out their season with a victory. There's a chance that Byron Scott won't be around next season and the players would likely want to send him out as a winner. I believe the Bobcats have more to play for though. With a victory here, the Bobcats can win three in a row. A win here will also give them a chance to pass Orlando (teams are currently tied) and to avoid having the worst record in the league. Charlotte guard Gerald Henderson had this to say about avoiding last place:"We want to take care of that. It's not been one of our goals to start the season, obviously, but it's become a smaller goal for us as we've come down the stretch." The fact that the Cavs have won both this season's meetings should provide the Bobcats with a little extra incentive too, as they look to avoid the series sweep. Motivation aside, the Bobcats are simply playing much better than the Cavs right now. While Cleveland had lost five straight and 15 of its last 17, Charlotte has quietly won seven of its last nine at home. I expect the Bobcats to "keep on rolling," as they close out the season with another victory, providing the home fans with some hope that next season may finally be different. 10* personal favorite |
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04-16-13 | Toronto Raptors v. Atlanta Hawks OVER 197 | Top | 113-96 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
I'm playing on Atlanta and Toronto to finish OVER the total. The Hawks have seen each of their last three games finish above the number. I feel this number provides us with solid value as I'm expecting another relatively high-scoring affair this evening.
The Raptors have seen each of their last two home games dip below the number. However, their most recent road game (101-98 win at Chicago) finished above the total. That's been consistent with their results on the season, as their road games have been higher-scoring than their home games all year. The Raptors allow 95.1 points per game at Toronto. However, when playing on the road, that number climbs all the way up to 102.6. The 95.1 they allow at home ranks in the top 10 (9th) in the entire league. However, the 102.6 ppg on the road ranks 21st. Many teams do allow more points on the road than they do at home - although the difference isn't often as significant as it in Toronto's case. However, the Raptors are one of the few teams that also score more points on the road than they do at home. The Raptors average 96.3 ppg at home. However, that number climbs - albeit not by that much - to 97.3 on the road. (Their home score ranks 21st in the league but their away score ranks 10th.) That combination of allowing AND scoring more points on the road has led to the Raptors seeing the OVER go 24-16 on the road. (The "under" is 24-16 in their games at Toronto.) That includes a profitable 9-3 OVER record when they've been listed as road underdogs in the 3.5 to 6 range. Its also worth mentioning that the OVER is 15-7 when the Raptors attempted to avenge an earlier home loss. The Hawks have been the opposite of the Raptors. Like most teams, they score more points at home than they do on the road. They average 99.5 here at Atlanta, as compared to 96.6 away from home. However, they also allow more points here than they do on the road. In games here they're allowing 98 points, up from the 96.8 that they allow on the road. The Hawks offense has been in high gear of late. They scored 124 at Philadelphia two games ago and followed it up by tallying 109 vs. Milwaukee in their last game. Including that 109-104 victory, the OVER is now 12-7 after they scored 105 or more in their previous game. They hit better than 50% of their field goals in both those games. While they don't have anything to play for, the Raptors are still playing hard. I don't expect them to just roll over here and look for them to keep fighting the entire way. I expect that to lead to another relatively high-scoring affair. 10* blue chip |
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04-15-13 | New York Knicks v. Charlotte Bobcats +8 | Top | 95-106 | Win | 100 | 23 h 13 m | Show |
I'm playing on CHARLOTTE. Its been another difficult season for the Bobcats. However, they've played well at home in recent weeks and I feel this will prove to be a good spot for them.
The Bobcats last game resulted in a 10-point win over the Bucks, on Saturday. They had yesterday off. Including Saturday's victory, they're 3-1 SU/ATS their last four home games and 6-2 SU/ATS their last eight here. The Knicks have fared quite when playing the second of back-to-back games. However, I believe that this is worse than a "typical" back-to-back spot. Not only are the Knicks off a big game vs. the Pacers yesterday, they're also their fourth game in the past five days. This will also now be their ninth game in the past 14 days. Given that grueling schedule and with their home finale (vs. Atlanta) on deck and throw in the fact that they've now locked up the #2 seed in the East, I feel that they're going to have trouble remaining fully focused on the lowly Bobcats. I would feel that was going to be true, regardless of who was in the lineup. However, the already banged-up Knicks are also likely going to rest a number of regulars. After yesterday's win, Carmello Anthony was quoted saying: "It was a big game for us so now guys can get their rest, I can get my rest and come back full speed ready for the playoffs." I expect the Bobcats to be the far more motivated team here and look for them to come away with the cash. 10* best bet |
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04-14-13 | Indiana Pacers v. New York Knicks UNDER 194 | Top | 80-90 | Win | 100 | 7 h 52 m | Show |
I'm playing on Indiana and NY to finish UNDER the total. These teams won't meet in the first round of the playoffs. However, there's a chance that they may see each other in the second round. As a result, I expect this game to have a "playoff feel to it." That often translates to more intensity on the defensive side of the ball, which I expect to see this afternoon.
After getting lit up by the Nets, I expect the Pacers to be particularly concerned about emphasizing an improved defensive effort here. Note that they held the Knicks to 33.7% shooting and 91 points when the teams met last. The Knicks, who gave up a whopping 125 points in that 2/20 game, should be motivated to deliver a much better job of shutting down the Pacers - as that was one of their worst defensive efforts of the season. (The Pacers shot better than 53%. ) That 2/20 game was at Indiana. Note that the lone meeting here at MSG produced a mere 164 points. Including that result, the UNDER is 6-3 the last nine times that the Pacers played here, 3-1 the last four. While they've certainly shown an ability to score, the Knicks have seen the UNDER go 10-7-1 their last 18 against teams with a winning record and 20-15-1 on the season. Note that the UNDER is also 36-28-2 the past couple of seasons, when they were off a double-digit win. (They won 101-91 on Friday.) With Indiana road games averaging only 183.7 points on the season, its not that surprising to learn that the UNDER is 4-2 when the Pacers have played a road game with an O/U line in the 190 to 194.5 range. Going back further finds the UNDER at 16-10-1 the past few seasons, when the Pacers played a road game with an O/U line in that range. I expect those stats to improve this afternoon. 10* blue chip |
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04-12-13 | New York Knicks v. Cleveland Cavaliers +4.5 | Top | 101-91 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 2 m | Show |
I'm playing on CLEVELAND. The Knicks saw their winning streak come to an end last night, falling in OT at Chicago. While many will expect them to immediately bounce back, I won't be surprised to see them lose two in a row.
While they've been solid when playing the second of back-to-back games, an OT loss on national TV is a little harder to bounce back from than a "regular" loss. Thats particularly true with a number of players still banged-up. Note that the Knicks haven't fared too well as small-medium sized road favorites. The Cavs, who got Dion Waiters back last game, have covered three of their last four and four of their last six. Despite an 0-2 SU mark, they've played the Knicks tough in both this season's meetings. Those games were decided by only six combined points. Even with a loss here last month, the Cavs are still 4-1 ATS the last five times that they were a host in this series. They're also 4-1 ATS when playing a home game with an O/U line in the 200 to 204.5 range. I expect AT LEAST another cover tonight. 10* best bet |
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04-12-13 | Brooklyn Nets v. Indiana Pacers -5.5 | Top | 117-109 | Loss | -103 | 19 h 5 m | Show |
I'm playing on INDIANA. The Pacers are in one of their better roles here. They're 20-11 ATS (23-8 SU) the past few seasons when listed as home favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range. That includes a 7-2 ATS (8-1 SU) mark their last nine in that situation. I expect them to improve on those stats tonight.
While the Nets are a respectable 22-17 on the road, the Pacers are a very strong 30-9 at home. A victory tonight will officially clinch the third seed. The Pacers play with "double-revenge" here, as the Nets have defeated them in both previous meetings. That should provide some added incentive. Note that the Pacers are 7-4 ATS when attempting to avenge an earlier home loss. Even with the earlier victories over the Pacers and a win vs. Boston on Wednesday, the Nets are still a poor 13-24-1 ATS (14-24 SU) against teams with a winning record this season. That includes a 5-11 ATS mark their last 16 against winning teams. After dropping two straight, the Pacers got back on track with a win vs. Cleveland on Tuesday. The fact that they didn't cover in that game has helped to keep this line slight lower than it potentially could have been. Note that that Pacers, who also get tomorrow off, are 9-6 ATS (10-5 SU) when playing with two day's rest in between games. Looking to lock up the third seed and looking to avenge the earlier losses, I expect another win and cover tonight. 10* personal favorite |
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04-11-13 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Golden State Warriors UNDER 205 | Top | 116-97 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 55 m | Show |
I'm playing on Oklahoma City and Golden State to finish UNDER the total. These teams have met three times this season. Both games at OKC finished above the total. However, the game here at Oakland stayed below the number. I look for tonight's game to also prove lower-scoring than most are expecting.
Everyone knows that the Thunder can score. I've mentioned numerous times throughout the season that they're also considerably better defensively than a lot of people realize. Indeed, the Thunder hold opposing teams to only a 42.5% field goal percentage. That happens to be the best defensive FG percentage in the West and the second best mark in the entire league. Only Indiana is better in that category. Over their last five games, opposing teams have shot only 40.9% against the Thunder. When asked about his team's defensive field goal percentage, OKC coach Scott Brooks commented: 'The stats say we are the second-best defensive team in the league and I believe we are. We lock in on that end of the floor ..." For the season, the UNDER is 22-15-2 in the Thunder's road games, which have been lower-scoring than their home games. In their last two road games, the Thunder have limited the Jazz to 80 points and the Pacers to a mere 75. Needless to say, both games stayed well below the total. The UNDER is now 11-3-2 their last 16 games overall. Note that the UNDER is also 19-10-1 the last 30 times that the Thunder held their previous opponent to 85 or fewer points. If you were surprised to learn that the Thunder were the second best defensive team (in terms of field goal % allowed) than you're likely going to be even more surprised to learn that the Warriors rank #3 in that category. Its true. The once defensively challenged Warriors hold opposing teams to a 43.7% FG%, which is better than the likes of Memphis, Washington, Miami, Boston, Chicago etc. At home, that number dips all the way down to 42.1%. Off back-to-back games (187 and 194 points) which dipped below the total, the UNDER is now 12-5 the Warriors' last 17 games. Games here are averaging 198.4 on the season while OKC road games are averaging 200.2. While I respect both offenses, given the current form of both teams, I feel this number is generously high. 10* Main Event |
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04-10-13 | New Orleans Hornets v. Sacramento Kings -5.5 | Top | 110-121 | Win | 100 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
I'm playing on SACRAMENTO. The Hornets have won both meetings this season. However, I believe this one sets up nicely for the Kings to exact some revenge. Note that both of the first two meetings were played at New Orleans.
While the Kings have had the past two nights off, the Hornets are off a hard-fought game vs. the Lakers, a contest where they really left it all on the floor. Off that "meaningful" game, one which they were leading with seven minutes remaining only to fall short, I feel it will be tough for them to get up for this "meaningless" one. Note that the Hornets may be without Eric Gordon and/or Grevis Vasquez. For the Kings, I don't expect it to be meaningless though. For starters, the Kings haven't been swept by the Hornets this entire millennium. I believe that avoiding that "feat" will provide them with some added motivation here. Additionally, the Kings hit the road for three games after this, before playing their last game vs. the Clippers. In other words, this is their best chance to give the fans one last victory. A win here can bring the Kings to .500 (20-20) at home and would put them in a position to potentially finish with a winning record here. (The Hornets are 11-28 on the road.) The Kings, who nearly beat Memphis in their most recent game here, are 17-4-1 ATS (17-5 SU) the last 22 times that they were a host in this series. I expect them to be both the "fresher" and the "hungrier" team here and for that to lead to another win and cover. 10* personal favorite |
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04-10-13 | Milwaukee Bucks v. Orlando Magic OVER 200 | Top | 103-113 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
I'm playing on Milwaukee and Orlando to finish OVER the total. These teams have met twice this season. Both games were high-scoring. the first finished with 205 points. The second finished with 224. (Neither game went to OT, either.) I'm expecting another relatively high-scoring affair this evening.
After managing only 83 points at Miami last night, the Bucks should be looking for a much better offensive performance here. Facing an Orlando team which allows 101.6 ppg at home should help. Note that the OVER is 6-2 after they scored 85 or fewer points in their previous game. Also, note that the OVER is 9-5 the last 14 times that the Bucks faced a team which allows 99 or more points per game. Likewise, the OVER is 9-4 the last 13 times that the Magic faced a team which allows 99 or more points per game. (The Bucks allow 100.2 ppg.) The OVER is 8-3 when the Magic have played with two or fewer day's rest in between games. With the OVER also at 27-17-1 the last 45 times that the Magic were off three or more consecutive losses, I don't expect to see much defense this evening. 10* blue chip |
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04-09-13 | Charlotte Bobcats v. Memphis Grizzlies OVER 186 | Top | 75-94 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
I'm playing on Memphis and Charlotte to finish OVER the total. As you're likely aware, the Grizzlies are a very "stingy" team. Meanwhile, the Bobcats are an "offensively challenged team. Those factors have been worked into the line though, as this opened as the lowest O/U line on the board. I believe that it will prove to be too low.
The Grizzlies already know that they're capable of dominating defensively. This is an inferior opponent from the "other" conference though, one which isn't involved in the playoff race. I believe that they'll take the opportunity to try and "get healthy" on the offensive side of the ball and I look for them to reach triple-digits in scoring. A look at the Bobcats' last six road games reveals that they've allowed 105, 131, 100, 111, 109 and 105 points. Going back a slightly further and we find that they're allowed a minimum of 100 points in nine of their last 10 on the road. (For the season, they're allowing an average of 104.7 ppg on the road.) While they've played a number of low-scoring games against Western Conference opponents recently, note that the Grizzlies last six games against Eastern Conference foes have produced combined scores of 209, 201, 216, 195, 190 and 189. The O/U line was 186 the last time that the Grizzlies hosted the Bobcats. That one finished with 193 combined points, a 113-80 victory for the home team. I expect this one to also top the 190 mark. 10* blue chip |
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04-09-13 | Philadelphia 76ers +7.5 v. Brooklyn Nets | Top | 83-104 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. The Nets have failed to cover in two straight games and are now 1-4 ATS their last five. I expect them to have their hands full again tonight.
Some of you may recall that we backed the 76'ers when they beat up on the Nets at Philadelphia last month. Despite being listed as an underdog, Philly won that game by a score of 106-97. The 76'er also played the Nets tough here in the lone meeting at Brooklyn, losing 95-92, back in late December. Its true that the 76'ers are now officially playing out the string. However, they've known that the playoffs weren't in the future for some time (long before getting mathematically eliminated) and they've still been playing hard. Coach Collins said this of his team: "I'm incredibly proud at how hard they've played every single night. We've competed and we've had some really tough losses but we can only grow from that.'' While they did get blown out at Miami on Saturday, tote that the 76'ers have won four of their last six game outright. The other loss came by only five points. In other words, they'd be 5-1 ATS their last six, if they were getting as many points as they are this evening. Note that the 76'ers are 14-7 ATS when off a double-digit loss. Its true that the Nets are trying to secure fourth place in the East, which makes every game important. However, with a big game at Boston on deck tomorrow night, I believe that Brooklyn may not be fully focused on the "lowly" 76'ers. Note that the Nets are a dismal 4-12-1 ATS the last 17 times that they played the front end of back-to-back games. Its also worth noting that the Nets are only 5-14 ATS when facing an opponent which defeated them in the previous meeting. So, "revenge" hasn't been much of a motivating factor for them. The Nets are 4-6-1 ATS as home favorites in the 6.5 to 9 range. They're also 4-8-1 ATS when playing a home game with an O/U line in the 190 to 194.5 range. The 76'ers are 11-4 ATS the last 15 times that they were a guest in this series, including a perfect 5-0 ATS the last five. I expect their best effort, en route to at least another cover. 10* best bet |
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04-08-13 | Michigan v. Louisville -3.5 | Top | 76-82 | Win | 100 | 36 h 4 m | Show |
I'm playing on LOUISVILLE. As you likely saw, the Cardinals received a stiff test vs. Wichita State. While that has helped to keep this line reasonably low, I believe that close game and the fact that they were able to battle back will serve them well here.
Needless to say, both teams are very good. Both are well-coached. Both are excellent on both sides of the ball. I believe the Cards bring a little more to the table though. A look at the stats, when playing away from home, reveals that Michigan has outscored opponents by an average of 73 to 66.5. However, when playing away from home, Louisville has outscored opponents by an average of 73.6 to 59.9. Not only did the Cards erase a 12-point second half deficit vs. the Shockers, they erased a 16-point second half deficit in the Big East Final, going on a 27-3 run and winning by 17. (That happened to be against Syracuse.) Indeed, this is a team that is never out of it. This has been one of Louisville's best roles. In fact, the Cards are a perfect 7-0 ATS the last seven times that they were listed as neutral court favorites in the 3.5 to 6 range. (During that stretch, the Wolverines were 1-1 ATS as neutral court underdogs in the same range.) While I respect Belein, I believe Pitino gives the Cards an advantage. I expect him to have the Cards ready and for their relentless pressure to ultimately prove the difference. 10* NCAA GOY |
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04-08-13 | Michigan v. Louisville UNDER 138.5 | Top | 76-82 | Loss | -108 | 36 h 3 m | Show |
I'm playing on Louisville and Michigan to finish UNDER the total. While I respect both offenses, I believe that this O/U line is too high.
Both defenses are excellent. The Wolverines allow 62.3 points per game. The Cardinals allow a mere 58.3. While Louisville has been dominant defensively all year, Michigan has really turned up the intensity on that side of the ball recently. In fact, after limiting Syracuse to only 56 points (and Florida to 59 the previous game) the Wolverines have now held four of their past five opponents below the 60 point mark. The Cards have been on an extended "over" run and that has caused their O/U lines to continue to climb. Despite the fact that Michigan is playing very stingy defense right now (as mentioned above) this is the highest O/U line that the Cards have seen in weeks. A closer look shows that eleven straight Louisville games have had totals lower than this one. That extra high number could well come in handy when considering that, despite the "over" streak, 10 of Louisville's last 12 games have still finished with 140 or fewer points. While the Cards have been getting it done with offense, they are still a defensive-oriented team. I look for their 'over' streak to come to an end here, as the final combined score proves much lower than many will be expecting, the UNDER improving to 13-7 the last 20 times that Michigan faced a team with a winning record. 10* best bet |
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04-07-13 | New Orleans Hornets v. Phoenix Suns +4 | Top | 95-92 | Win | 100 | 29 h 54 m | Show |
I'm playing on PHOENIX. The Suns have opened as underdogs here. I'll happily take whatever points are being offered. However, I expect them to win this one outright.
I successfully backed the Suns in their last game. While they ultimately lost the game, they easily covered the spread. They're stepping down in class here and I feel a similar effort will result in a SU victory. While the Suns 16-23 home record isn't overly impressive, its considerably better than the Hornets' 10-27 mark away from New Orleans. Not surprisingly, the home team has won both meetings this season. The Hornets won by nine when the teams met at New Orleans in February. Earlier in the season, the Suns won by three points here at Phoenix. Note that it was the Suns who were favored for the previous game here - they were laying 5.5 points. While the Suns are off a cover, the Hornets are off back-to-back double-digit losses. They're now 1-4 SU/ATS their last five. Going back further finds them at 0-8 SU/ATS their last eight road games. Obviously, neither team is going to make the playoffs. In cases like this these, motivation often plays a pivotal role in determining which team will cover. In this case, playing at home and looking to snap an extended losing streak, I believe that the Suns will be the "hungrier" team. Why do I expect the Suns to be more hungry? A closer look at the schedule reveals that this is their second last home game of the season. After this, four of their final five games come on the road. Their lone remaining home game, after this one, comes vs. Houston. Needless to say, the Rockets are a better team than the Hornets. In other words, this game offers the Suns their best chance to give the home fans a victory. They're aware of this and I believe it will prove to be a motivating factor. The Suns have beaten the Hornets twice in a row here and are 5-2 SU their last seven as a host in the series. 10* |
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04-07-13 | Dallas Mavericks v. Portland Trail Blazers +3.5 | Top | 96-91 | Loss | -104 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
I'm playing on PORTLAND. In terms of making the playoffs, the Mavericks certainly have more to play for. They're desperately trying to catch up and get into the 8th spot. The Blazers, on the other hand, are already eliminated from postseason contention. That will likely have many wanting to back the Mavs here. I feel the Blazers are going to be very hungry though and that we're going to get their best effort tonight.
Admittedly, the Blazers haven't played too well in recent days. However, lets not forget that their 24-15 home record is far superior to the Mavs' 15-24 mark on the road. While the Mavs won both meetings at Dallas, the Blazers defeated them in the lone meeting here at Portland. After a poor performance on Friday, Portland coach Terry Stotts said this of his team: "It's definitely a downer. To have a losing streak at this time of the year and playing against playoff teams, it's a difficult task. In general, I've found that most players bounce back pretty well and we'll bounce back Sunday." The Blazers have LaMarcus Aldridge back and that's a big plus for this team. Aldridge was excellent in his first game back, scoring 32 points and grabbing 13 rebounds. Now the team has had a game with him in the lineup, which should help them here. Wesley Matthews said this of the team's motivation level: "It's not even about the playoffs. We've got to play like this is the blessing it is." The Mavs are just 7-12 ATS the past few seasons as road favorites in the 3.5 to 6 range, including a 1-3 ATS mark in that role this season. Meanwhile, the Blazers are 2-1 ATS as home underdogs in the 3.5 to 6 range. While they fought hard, the reality is that the Mavs aren't likely going to make the playoffs. This is the Blazers' chance to really put the nail in their coffin. They've won five of the last seven series meetings here and I expect them to step up and score the upset tonight. 10* best bet |
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04-06-13 | Michigan v. Syracuse UNDER 131 | Top | 61-56 | Win | 100 | 57 h 47 m | Show |
I'm playing on Syracuse and Michigan to finish UNDER the total. I respect both these offenses. However, given the way that the Orange are currently playing defense, I believe this line will prove to be a little high.
Last time out, the Orange limited Marquette to a mere 39 points. In their previous game, they held Indiana to only 50. Prior to that, they allowed a "whopping" 60. Before that, they allowed only 34. Those four games had final combined scores of 115, 126, 111 and 94. True, Michigan can hit from the outside, something they'll need to . True, the Wolverines have topped the 70 point mark in four straight games. They can also play defense though. Last time out, they held Florida to only 59 points. They've now kept three of four opponents in the tournament to less than 60. These teams last met in 2010. That game had an O/U line of 133 yet finished with only 103 points. Their previous meeting was way back in 1998 - that one finished with 104 points. This one will likely finish with more than that but not enough to keep it from staying below the number. 10* best bet |
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04-06-13 | Atlanta Hawks +7.5 v. San Antonio Spurs | Top | 97-99 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
I'm playing on ATLANTA. I'm well aware that the Spurs have dominated the Hawks over the years here. I also know that they've been very tough here all season and that they're still trying to lock up the #1 seed. That said, I expect the Hawks to give them all they can handle tonight and feel that they've got an excellent shot at scoring an upset.
As of this writing, it appears likely that Parker won't be able to go for the Spurs. Even if he does play, he's likely not going to be 100%. Last time out, Parker went just 1 of 6 for two points, before leaving with a shin injury. Already without Ginobili, the Spurs lost by double-digits. They've now dropped three of four. Coach Popovich had this to say about Parker's performance and injury: "It looked like he had no energy to start the game and then as he went, he looked to me like he was limping. We saw him coming across halfcourt actually limping one time, and that's when we pulled him and I said to him, 'Tony, you got to stop.'" Parker averages 20.6 points and 7.5 assists, both team highs. He's one of just three players averaging at least 20.0 and 7.0 per game. Tim Duncan had this to say: "Obviously, Tony's down, Manu's down, so it's a concern, especially in this part of the season ... " The Hawks are off a poor effort last night and that had Coach Drew steaming. I expect him to demand a much better effort tonight and for his team to respond accordingly. Drew had this to say: "How you can come out and play like that when the game has that type of meaning is beyond me." The Hawks beat Orlando by nine the last time that they played the second of back-to-back games and are a respectable 11-9 SU/ATS in that situation on the season. Note that four of those nine losses came by eight points or less - including a 5-point setback vs. these same Spurs. The fact that they lost that game vs. San Antonio is noteworthy, as the Hawks are 23-14-1 ATS the last 38 times that they attempted to avenge an earlier home loss. The Hawks are also 12-6 ATS (14-4 SU!) the last 18 times that they were off a double-digit loss. I expect them to rise to the occasion, earning AT LEAST a cover and improving to 5-2 ATS as road underdogs in the 6.5 to 9 range. *non-conf. goy |
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04-06-13 | Indiana Pacers v. Washington Wizards +4 | Top | 85-104 | Win | 100 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
I'm playing on WASHINGTON. The Pacers are having a great season and they've got a much better overall record than the Wizards. However, many might be surprised to learn that the Wizards' home record is actually better than Indiana's road record. That said, I believe the home underdog is providing us with excellent value here.
Even after a recent successful road trip, the Pacers are still only 19-19 away from Indiana. Meanwhile, the Wizards are 21-17 at home, going a lucrative 25-13 at the betting window. They've outscored opposing teams by a 98 to 95 margin here. In fact, they've won eight straight at home, covering in each of the last seven. Going back further finds the Wizards at 17-4 since Wall returned to the lineup. Two of those four losses came by two points. The other two both came by eight. In other words, they haven't been blown out here in months and they'd be 18-2 ATS their last 20 here if the line was what it is today. A closer look at the recent 8-game winning streak reveals that the Wizards have won those games by an average of 12.2 points, shooting a sizzling 50.4 percent from 3-point range. Wall has averaged an impressive 23.8 points and 8.6 assists. While the Wizards, who lost at Toronto on Wednesday, have had the past couple of day's off, the Pacers got blown out by the Thunder last night. While they have yet to beat the Pacers, the Wizards have been at their best against quality teams. They're 11-5 ATS their last 16 against teams with a winning record, going a lucrative 24-11-1 ATS against winning teams on the season. Wall wasn't in the lineup for any of the Wizards' three losses vs. Indiana. (All three losses came by eight or fewer points.) As noted, he's back and playing very well right now though. The Wizards are 9-4 ATS off a double-digit loss and 29-18 ATS when playing with revenge. I expect them to continue their excellent play here, earning AT LEAST a cover and improving to 6-3 ATS as home underdogs in the 3.5 to 6 range. 10* Eastern Conf. best bet |
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04-06-13 | Wichita State v. Louisville -10 | Top | 68-72 | Loss | -104 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
I'm playing on LOUISVILLE. The Shockers have been a great story and deserve credit for advancing this far. I believe that the party will come to a crashing end on Saturday though.
While I certainly don't discount what the Shockers have done, I feel that the Cardinals are too deep, too talented and too well coached. Normally, an underdog which had earned numerous upsets to get this far (like Wichita State) would have the support of the public and the fans watching the game. That can help provide some energy. That's not necessarily the case for the Shockers here though, as the gruesome injury to Ware has many wanting to see Louisville win it for him. The Cardinals were already "on a mission," entering the tournament. Ware's injury has provided them with even further incentive. The Cardinals have a lot more experience on the "big stage" and their 18-5 ATS record the past few seasons, when playing on a neutral court, is too good to ignore. I expect a double-digit win. 10* personal favorite |
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04-05-13 | Golden State Warriors v. Phoenix Suns +8 | Top | 111-107 | Win | 100 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
I'm playing on PHOENIX. The Warriors have had a very solid season and enter tonight's game with a much better record than the Suns. That said, I don't feel that they're ready to be laying this many points on the road.
While they've been tough at home, the Warriors are only 17-21 on the road. That's almost identical to the Suns' 16-22 home record. (If the Suns win tonight, the records will be equal.) The Warriors did win this season's previous meeting - but that victory came by only two points. For the season, the Warriors are being outscored by an average of 102.8 to 99.9 away from home. The Warriors just won four of five games on a recent home-stand. Four of those five games were decided by 10 or less though. (Most recently, they beat the Hornets by 10.) With an arguably bigger game vs. Utah on deck, I feel they may not be fully focused on the lowly Suns. Note that they Warriors are only 13-23 their last 36 off a double-digit win, 7-9 ATS in that situation this season. The Suns have certainly struggled on the defensive side of the ball lately. They've scored more than 100 points in three straight games though, making it four times in five games that they've hit triple-digits. While they (obviously) aren't going to make the playoffs, I don't believe the Suns are ready to throw in the towel. At least not when playing with triple-revenge, against a divisional opponent. Phoenix point guard Goran Dragic had this to say: "We're not going to make the playoffs, so we'll just try to compete until the end of the season." Even including the loss earlier, the Suns are 16-4 the last 20 times that they were a host in this series. The four losses came by an average of less than six points. I expect their best effort tonight. 10* best bet |
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04-05-13 | Cleveland Cavaliers v. Boston Celtics OVER 201.5 | Top | 97-91 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
I'm playing on Boston and Cleveland to finish OVER the total. These teams have met three times this season. Both games at Cleveland fell below the total. However, the game here at Boston finished above the number. We're back at Boston tonight. Given the recent form of the teams, I'm expecting a high-scoring affair for the final meeting of the season series.
The Cavaliers have forgotten how to play defense recently, although they haven't exactly been "stout" at any time this season. They gave up 113 points last time out. Their previous two games saw them allow 102 and 112. They've given up an average of roughly 107 their last nine games, at least 97 in eight of those. For the season, they're giving up 102.8 ppg on the road, allowing opposing to connect on 48.9% of their field goals. Not surprisingly, the OVER is 21-16 when they play away from Cleveland, 6-4 when listed as road underdogs in the 3.5 to 6 range. As the Celtics, they've allowed opponents to reach triple-digits in six of their last eight games. Jeff Green is putting up big offensive numbers, as he's become a legit "go to guy." The OVER is 5-3 when they were listed as home favorites in the 3.5 to 6 range. Including this season's earlier meeting, the OVER is 8-4 the last 12 times that that Boston was a host in this series. I expect another relatively high-scoring affair. 10* blue chip |
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04-03-13 | Memphis Grizzlies v. Portland Trail Blazers UNDER 189.5 | Top | 94-76 | Win | 100 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
I'm playing on Portland and Memphis to finish UNDER the total. Recent results have helped to provide us with a generously high O/U line here. I believe it will prove to be too high.
The most recent meeting between these teams was on 3/12. That game did finish above the total. However, a closer look reveals that it was actually low-scoring through the first three quarters, well on pace to stay below the number. The first quarter had 42 points. The second quarter had 46 and the third had 38. That put the score at only 126, heading into the final frame. It was only an unusually high 73 points fourth quarter that caused the final score to top the total. I'm not expecting to see any 70+ point quarters tonight. With Memphis having won that game, note that the UNDER is 7-5 when the Blazers were attempting to avenge an earlier home loss. This season's previous two meetings were both low-scoring. They finished with scores of 176 and 170. The Grizzlies are one of the best defensive teams in the league. Last time out, they limited the Spurs to 90 points, earning a 92-90 win. Note that the UNDER is 3-1 when the Blazers faced a team which allows 91 or fewer points per game. True, the Blazers haven't exactly been stingy defensively. However, the Grizzlies have seen the UNDER go 17-11-1 vs. teams which allow 99 or more points per game. With the UNDER also now at 14-7-1 when the Grizzlies had won their previous three (or more) consecutive games, I'm expecting a relatively low-scoring affair. 10* best bet |
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04-03-13 | New York Knicks v. Atlanta Hawks -2.5 | Top | 95-82 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 30 m | Show |
I'm playing on ATLANTA. The Hawks may claim that they don't care about positioning. However, I don't believe that to be the case. There's a big difference between finishing fourth and finishing fifth and they should be well aware of that fact. They've got the schedule in their favor and I expect them to step up with a win and cover.
The Knicks may have the better overall record but the Hawks' 24-13 mark at home is superior than the Knicks' 20-16 record away from MSG. The Knicks have certainly been rolling and they're off an impressive win over the Heat last night. That said, I believe that this is a tough spot for them. The Heat may have been without their stars last night but they still put up a fight. As a result, the Knicks starters were forced to log relatively heavy minutes. In addition to playing the second of back-to-back games, the Knicks will also be playing their third game in the past four days and their sixth game in the past nine. That's a pretty grueling stretch and I expect it to catch up with them here. Playing with revenge from a 2-point loss at New York, I expect the Hawks to be both the "fresher" and "hungrier" team and for that to ultimately translate to victory. 10* main event |
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04-01-13 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Utah Jazz UNDER 200 | Top | 102-112 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
I'm playing on Utah and Portland to finish UNDER the total. These teams recently met at Portland. That game, which had an O/U line in the 196 to 197.5 range, (opened at 196 and closed at 197.5) finished with 200 combined points. Today, while we're getting a higher opening O/U line to work with, I'm expecting a lower-scoring contest.
While both this season's meetings at Portland have finished above the number, the lone meeting here at Salt Lake City was much lower-scoring. In fact, that 2/1 contest finished with a mere 163 points, an 86-77 victory for the Jazz. Including that result, the UNDER is a lucrative 21-15 here on the season, games averaging 195.4 points. When listed as the favorite, the Jazz have seen the UNDER go 24-14. True, the Blazers have been pretty porous defensively of late. However, I believe that they'll be motivated to improve defensively here. Note that they lost the recent game at Portland and that the UNDER is 7-4 when they attempted to avenge a home loss. Portland coach Terry Stotts had this to say: "We have to make it more of a priority in these last nine games to play more of a solid game especially on defense." While it has dipped below the 200 mark at some shops, at the time of this writing, this O/U number is currently still available at 200 in some places. Therefore, I'll mention the fact that the UNDER is a profitable 14-4 in games played here the past few seasons, when the O/U line ranged from 200-204.5. (Its still a play if it falls below that range.) Including the earlier low-scoring contest here, the UNDER is a perfect 5-0 the last five times that the Jazz were a host in this series. Those games had combined scores of 163, 190, 182, 185 and 187. I expect a similar result tonight. 10* blue chip |
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03-31-13 | Miami Heat v. San Antonio Spurs -108 | Top | 88-86 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
I'm playing on SAN ANTONIO. Many are going to see mighty Miami opening as a slight underdog and will be scratching their heads. However, with all due respect to the Heat, I believe the Spurs opened as favorites for good reason.
True, the Heat have the superior overall record. However, even with all their recent winning, they aren't much ahead of the Spurs. Miami enters today's game at 57-15. The Spurs are two games back, at 55-17. Looking at those numbers a little more closely reveals that the Heat are 25-12 on the road, very respectable numbers indeed. However, the Spurs are a superb 32-4 here at San Antonio. Obviously, Lebron and co. will be fired up for a TV game - and possible Finals preview - against the current "best in the west." However, if we listen to Lebron's comments, he's already prepared to move on, if Miami loses. I won't call it "making excuses" but at the same time, he's not exactly sounding as if its a "must win" either. "...'It'll be an opportunity for us. We just want to get better, man. The game Sunday doesn't define our season or how we go from there. We just want to continue to move forward and get better throughout the rest of the season.'' Coach Spoelstra expressed a similar sentiment: "We don't want to get caught up in too much of the results. We have a big goal in mind. That's the No. 1 goal and that's the only goal we've talked about.'' One might be surprised to learn that the Heat don't often fare too well when listed as slight road underdogs. In fact, they're only 5-10-1 ATS (5-11 SU) the past few seasons as a road underdog of three or fewer points. Playing the final leg of a 4-game road trip, its also worth mentioning that Miami is only 6-11 ATS after playing three or more consecutive games away from home. While the Heat are 3-6 ATS against teams from the Southwest, the Spurs are 6-1 ATS against teams from the Southeast. They're 17-5-1 ATS (19-4 SU) against Southeast opponents the past few seasons. The Spurs are also 7-3-1 ATS (8-3 SU) the past few seasons, as home favorites of three or less. Wade is 1-4 for his career at San Antonio. He missed three other games there, Miami losing them all. James is 3-7 here. Bosh is 1-7 here. Battier is 8-16. The last two games here saw the Spurs win by scores of 125-95 and 108-78. This one may not result in another blowout but I still look for the Spurs to come away with another victory. 10* main event |
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03-30-13 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Houston Rockets -107 | Top | 91-98 | Win | 100 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
I'm playing on HOUSTON. Both teams lost yesterday. Playing at home, I feel that the Rockets will be in better position to bounce back.
Looking at yesterday's results, one could easily call the Clippers' loss the more "heart-breaking" of the two - and likely the more "demoralizing" one. The Rockets lost by nine at Memphis, a game they trailed by double-digits entering the fourth quarter. On the other hand, the Clippers lost by a single bucket vs. the Spurs, a game they led with seven seconds remaining. That's the type of loss that really stings, particularly as it came against the top team in the conference and as the Clippers had fought so hard to erased a 7-point deficit in the final minutes. Clearly bothered by Duncan's winning 3-point play, Chris Paul had this to say: 'He traveled. I can say that, right? He traveled. I just looked at the film. He traveled. He made an unbelievable shot, though. We have to do better. I'm not trying to take anything away from him. It was an unbelievable big-time shot. That's why he's one of the best power forwards to ever play the game. But, he traveled.'' I also believe the schedule is working in Houston's favor. As you already know, both teams played last night. Admittedly, the Clippers have been better in back-to-back situations overall. However, in this case, the Clippers will also be playing their fourth game in the past five days, all four of those games in a different city. The Rockets will be playing just their third game in the past six days, two of those games coming here at Houston. Of course, paying at home is significant, as well. The Clippers are a respectable 21-16 on the road. However, the Rockets are an outstanding 25-11 at home. Both teams obviously will badly want to win this game. However, with the Rockets playing with "double-revenge," I believe they may be a little more "hungry." While the Clippers are 6-8 ATS against teams with a winning record in the second half of the season, the Rockets are 11-6 ATS. While the Clippers are 3-8 ATS their last 11 against teams which score 99 or more points per game, the Rockets are 8-4 ATS against such teams, during the same stretch. I look for homecourt to prove the difference as the Rockets bounce back with an important win. 10* annihilator |
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03-30-13 | Wichita State v. Ohio State UNDER 132 | Top | 70-66 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
I'm playing on Ohio State and Wichita State to finish UNDER the total. This O/U line climbed from its opener. I believe its providing us with excellent value.
The Buckeyes have seen all three of their NCAA Tournament games top the total. That hasn't been "normal" for them this season though, as the UNDER is still 19-14 in their games which had an O/U line. For the season, their games are averaging less than 130 combined points, a total of 129.5 overall and 129.6 when they've played away from home. Wichita State games have had similar numbers. Their games are averaging 130.5 overall and 130.1 away from home. The Buckeyes allow 59.1 ppg and hold opposing teams to a 39.6 field goal percentage. The Shockers allow 60.7 points and a 39.6 field goal percentage. The Shockers have really elevated their defensive play of late too. Their last five opponents have connected at just 35.4% from the field. Even with their recent results, the Buckeyes have seen their last 17 games against strong defensive teams (I'm defining that as teams allowing 64 or fewer points per game) produce 11 "unders" vs. just six "overs." I believe the recent results have worked in our favor and I expect those stats to improve here. 10* blue chip |
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03-30-13 | Syracuse v. Marquette +4.5 | Top | 55-39 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 11 m | Show |
I'm playing on MARQUETTE. Both these teams were very impressive in their last game. Each of them dominated a very strong opponent. Syracuse seems to be getting a lot more credit/respect for its win over Indiana than Marquette is for its win over Miami though. While the Orange beat me last time, I've been riding the Golden Eagles the past couple of games. Getting a handful of points, I believe they're providing us with very fair value once again. These teams met last month, at Marquette. The Golden Eagle won by three points. Unlike Indiana, which appeared confused by the zone played by Syracuse, the Golden Eagles have seen it before and are very familiar with the Orange. One player that was particularly effective against the Cuse zone last month was Marquette's big man, Davante Gardner. He was 7 for 7 from the field, sank 12 of his 13 free throws, while also contributing eight rebounds. Gardner commented: "I love playing against athletic guys. Because they think they can just stop me. But I use my weight to push them around." While its obviously unrealistic to expect Gardner to hit at such a high percentage again, I do expect him to have another effective game. He had 14 points against Miami. The Golden Eagles are 6-1 SU and 5-1 ATS when playing with one or less day's rest. They're now 19-8 ATS as underdogs the past few seasons. When they do lose, its generally not by many points. In fact, as I mentioned prior to the Miami game, Marquette has only lost two games by more than eight points this entire season. Four of the Golden Eagles losses have come by four points or less. Prior to Thursday's "blowout win," each of the Golden Eagles' last eight games was decided by eight or less. I won't be surprised if this one also comes down to the wire and am grabbing all the points I can get. 10* |
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03-29-13 | Fla Gulf Coast v. Florida -13 | Top | 50-62 | Loss | -108 | 24 h 9 m | Show |
I'm playing on FLORIDA. The Eagles have certainly been the story of the tournament. I avoided their game against Georgetown but they cost me when they knocked off San Diego State. They're up against an entirely different opponent now though and I expect their magical run to come to a crashing halt.
While I believe that the Gators have numerous matchup advantages, I also feel that the venue (Arlington, Texas) will favor them. While the Eagles played their games at Philadelphia, the Gators played at Austin, only a few hours away. They remained in Texas the entire time, focusing entirely on the task at hand. On the other hand, the Eagles went from Philadelphia back to their school, where they were treated like rock stars. Not only was their extra travel involved, it figures to be hard for them to be fully focused, given all the attention that they've been receiving. While the Eagle are already heroes, no matter what happens here, the Gators are on a mission. They're a team loaded with seniors and they've come up short in their previous tries. After being to the regional finals each of their last two years, they want more here. Kenny Boynton noted: "We remember the pain it caused for us last year. I think we used it to learn. ... We've been close. And our goal is to get further this year.'' While the line may seem high, keep in mind that the Gators are 8-2 ATS their last 10 NCAA tournament games and 5-1 ATS (6-0 SU) the last six times that they were listed as neutral court favorites of 12.5 to 15 points. I say the clock strikes midnight for "Cinderella" in Arlington. 10* personal favorite |
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03-29-13 | Philadelphia 76ers v. Cleveland Cavaliers OVER 193.5 | Top | 97-87 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 14 m | Show |
I'm playing on Philadelphia and Cleveland to finish OVER the total. These teams have faced each other twice this season. Both those games stayed below the total. Both those meetings were back in November though, when there was still "hope" for the season. With both now essentially "playing out the string," I don't expect to see much defensive intensity this evening.
True, the 76'ers aren't technically eliminated yet and they know that they've got some winnable games remaining. However, they also know their chances are remote, particularly after Milwaukee knocked off LA last night. They're now seven games behind the eighth-place Bucks with 11 games to play. Regardless of whether of not they still "believe," the 76'ers have been playing some high-scoring games of late. Each of their last four games has produced a minimum of 192 combined points and those four games averaged greater than 204. They've given up at least 100 points in five of their last six and have scored 100 or more in four of their last six. Tonight, the 76ers will take on a Cleveland team which has allowed 111 or more in three of its last five. During that stretch, the Cavs have permitted an average of 107.4 points, opponents connecting on a whopping 49.6% of their field goals. For the season, the Cavs are allowing an average of 101.3 points, their games averaging 198.4 points. After losing their last game at the buzzer, coach Byron Scott said. "We were looking at the clock, playing not to lose the game instead of to win the game. You have to look to win. You can't hope the clock runs out and that's what we kind of did.'' Translation? Expect the Cavs to be more aggressive tonight. True, the Cavs have seen their last three games dip below the total. However, two of those games still finished with a minimum of 193 points. Also, this is the seventh time this season that the Cavs have seen three straight games stay beneath the number. In ALL of the previous seven cases, their next game was an "over," a perfect 7-0. Those games had scores of 232, 205, 205, 242, 205, 201 and 212. While we don't need quite that many, I won't be surprised if this one breaks the 200 mark once again. 10* Best Bet |
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03-29-13 | Oregon v. Louisville UNDER 129.5 | Top | 69-77 | Loss | -108 | 36 h 48 m | Show |
I'm playing on Louisville and Oregon to finish UNDER the total. I won with the Ducks to go 'over' in their last game. However, this number, which has climbed from its opener, is several points higher and I feel the value has shifted the other way.
While both teams can indeed score, both are also very capable defensively. That's particularly true of Louisville. The Cardinals allow a mere 57.6 points per game, holding opponents to a 39.1% field goal percentage. Over their last five games, the Cards are permitting only 55.4 ppg. The Ducks have also picked up their defensive intensity of late. They're allowing only 60.6 points per game, holding opponents to 39.9% from the field. Those are down from their season long numbers of 63.2 and 41.1%. Even factoring in their last game finishing above the number, excluding pushes and games which didn't have a total, the Ducks have seen the UNDER go 6-2 their last eight against teams which allow 64 or fewer points and 12-5 their last 17 against teams with a winning record. They've also seen the UNDER go 3-0 when playing with five or six day's rest in between games. True, the Cards have seen both this year's tournament games finish above the total. However, the UNDER was 5-1 their previous six NCAA tournament games, entering this year's tournament. I expect things to return to "normal" here as the Cards crank up the defensive intensity and the final combined score stays below the number. 10* |
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03-28-13 | Syracuse v. Indiana -5 | Top | 61-50 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 25 m | Show |
I'm playing on INDIANA. I've had some success playing both on and against Syracuse this season. I feel that this will prove to be an excellent spot to go against the Orange.
The Hoosiers got a wake-up call against Temple, a team they didn't match up well against from a 'style' perspective. While they're certainly a formidable opponent, I believe the Orange present a better matchup for them. Syracuse coach Jim Boeheim employs a 2-3 zone, generally for the entire game. That typically means that teams have to beat the Orange from the outside. The majority of teams aren't built to do so. The Hoosiers aren't like most teams though. The Hoosiers shoot 40.8% from beyond the arc and 48.6% overall. Christian Watford (48%), Jordan Hulls (46%) and Victor Oladipo (43 percent) all shoot better than 40 percent from beyond the arc. Will Sheehey (36%) is also highly capable of knocking them down from long range. Note that Oladipo, a contender for National Player of the Year, played here in high-school. He was quoted as saying: "I'm going to have a lot of family and friends here, but at the same time, it's a business trip. We're here to be successful." I also believe this matchup will allow Zeller to play to his strengths. The Orange Syracuse lost 61-39 (vs. Georgetown a few weeks ago) the last time that they played at this arena, their fewest points since December 1962. With a total currently in the mid-high 130s, note that the Orange are 0-6 ATS the last six times that they played a neutral court game with an O/U line in the 135 to 139.5 range. The fact that the Hoosiers have failed to cover a few in a row has kept this line slightly lower than I feel it could easily be. They've generally been at their best vs. "elite" teams. I look for them to rise to the occasion with a win and cover. 10* |
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03-28-13 | Marquette +5.5 v. Miami (Fla) | Top | 71-61 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
I'm playing on MARQUETTE. I backed the Golden Eagles in their victory over Butler. While I marked that one down as a push, hopefully some were able to to get a win. Either way, I feel that back-to-back very close wins will serve them well here.
While the Hurricanes have admittedly fared well as favorite this season, the Golden Eagles are an outstanding 18-8 ATS the last 26 times that they were getting points. Both teams score roughly the same number of points (68.8 vs. 69.9) and both are stingy defensively. the Golden Eagles allows 62.9% ppg while the Canes allow 60.3. Therefore, its worth noting that Marquette is 30-15 ATS (31-17 SU) its last 48 against teams which allow 64 or fewer points while Miami is 16-14 ATS (18-15 SU.) The Hurricanes are 3-4-1 ATS in games with an O/U line in the 120s while the Eagles are 7-3 ATS. Note that with the final combined score expected to be relatively low, that every point is that much more valuable. While I do certainly respect Miami, Marquette has only lost two games by more than eight points this entire season. Four of the Golden Eagles losses have come by four points or less. Each of their last eight games has been decided by eight or less. I expect another one that comes down to the wire and am grabbing all the points I can get. 10* |
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03-27-13 | Indiana Pacers v. Houston Rockets -4.5 | Top | 100-91 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 36 m | Show |
I'm playing on HOUSTON. The Rockets are playing some of their best basketball of the season right now. The Pacers are getting healthier but are still at less than 100%. Playing with "revenge" from an earlier loss at Indiana, I expect the Rockets to take care of business and to defend their homecourt.
The Rockets are averaging 109.7 points per game at home this season, hitting 47.5 % of their field goals here. On their current homestand, they've cranked up the defensive intensity, allowing an average of only 92.5 points. That's a dangerous combination. Note that Houston is 24-5 when limiting teams to 101 or fewer points and that the Pacers average only 90.7 ppg on the road. Losers of three of their last four road games, the Pacers are only 15-19 away from Indiana. On the other hand, the Rockets are 25-10 at home. While they did lose at Indiana earlier, the Rockets are still 19-9 ATS (20-8 SU) against Eastern Conference opponents. (The Pacers are 14-11 against the West.) The Rockets get tomorrow off and they've had two day's worth of rest coming in. They're 7-4 ATS (8-3 SU) when playing with two day's rest. The Pacers had yesterday off but are still playing their fourth game in the past six days - and they've got a game at Dallas tomorrow. The Pacers have a comfortable lead over the Bulls in their division. While they'd still like to improve their positioning, assuming they hold off the Bulls, they'll get homecourt advantage in the first round. I would argue this game is bigger for the Rockets. If the playoffs started today, the Rockets would be up against the Thunder. They've still got a very real chance of moving up to 6th though which would mean facing the Nuggets, Clippers or potentially the Grizzlies. I expect a highly motivated effort en route to a win and cover. 10* personal favorite |
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03-26-13 | Minnesota Timberwolves v. Detroit Pistons OVER 195.5 | Top | 105-82 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 34 m | Show |
I'm playing on Minnesota and Detroit to finish OVER the total. The T-Wolves snapped a lengthy road slide with a 117-86 win over the Suns on Friday. Not surprisingly, they'd then have an immediate letdown in a 104-97 setback to the Bulls at home on Sunday. Minnesota has seen the O/U go 31-35-2 overall this year, but 18-16-1 on the road. And the number has flown above the posted number in their last two straight. Note that the OVER is 18-9 when they've played a team with a losing record - the one spot where they've been profitable for "over" bettors.
The Pistons will be looking to build off their 92-91 win at Charlotte on Saturday, and to break out of a frustrating six-game slide in front of the home town crowd. Three of Detroit's last four at home have gone over the posted number, including the last two in a row. These perennial cellar dwellers are looking for any sort of positive momentum to the end the season, and because of that, I fully expect each to get out and push the pace of this one from the opening tip until the final buzzer. Needless to say, neither should have much incentive to play defense. While the OVER is only 6-5 their last 11 in that situation, the Pistons have seen the OVER go 62-44-2 against teams with a losing record, the past few seasons. During that stretch, the OVER is also 25-16-1 when they were off an "upset" win. Minnesota has struggled in every facet of the game this year, and that's been especially true on the offensive side of the ball, but again, note that it's seen the total go over the number in 18 of 27 this season when playing against teams with losing records. With the over 5-2-1 (9-4-1 L14) when Detroit played a home game with an O/U line of 195 to 199.5 this year, I'm looking for this one to prove higher-scoring than most will be expecting. 10* blue chip |
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03-25-13 | RICHMOND +1 v. WRIGHT STATE | Top | 51-57 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
I'm playing on RICHMOND. The Raiders had a solid season. I would consider them to be "over-achievers." In fact, they're the last team from the Horizon League to even be playing this season. That said, I feel that they're facing a more talented opponent here and I look for their season to come to an end.
Richmond shook off a very disappointing loss to Charlotte in the A-10 Tournament by winning their first game in this tournament. I believe that they're motivated to win the entire thing and feel that they've got the talent to potentially do so. Wright State coach Billy Donlon had this to say of the Spiders: "You |
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03-24-13 | Fla Gulf Coast v. San Diego St -7 | Top | 81-71 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
I'm playing on SAN DIEGO STATE. As many of you are likely aware, I played on the Aztecs in their opening round game. Oklahoma played them tough for a half but the Aztecs blew out the Sooners in the second half. I believe that they're providing us excellent value again and I'm expecting them to deliver another double-digit win.
Unless you attended the school, its unlikely you had Florida Gulf Coast getting this far in your bracket. Still, the Eagles are here - and have shown that they can not be taken lightly. I don't believe that that battle-tested and well-coached Aztecs will make that mistake. The Eagles are athletic and they do some "tricky" stuff. (Like switching from zone to man-to-man and back again on defense.) They're no longer an unknown commodity though and the Aztecs will be paying them far more attention than the Hoyas evidently did. (Air Force is a little bit like that - so the Aztecs aren't totally unfamiliar with a changing defense.) Sure, the win over G-Town was certainly impressive. The Eagles did actually beat Miami way back in early November too. So, the victory over the Hoyas wasn't totally unprecedented. Keep in mind that the Eagles got blown out when facing other decent non-conference teams though. They lost by 23 vs. VCU. They lost by 21 vs. Duke. They also lost by 11 against both St. John's and Iowa State. Outside of those games, their schedule was "less than challenging." Indeed, the Atlantic Sun Conference is hardly the ACC, Big East or even the Mountain West. While the other teams in the Mountain West have disappointed, that's still a very competitive conference. Six teams had 20 or more victories. I believe that it has the Aztecs well prepared - as has their past NCAA Tournament experience. If you haven't heard of San Diego State's Jamaal Franklin, you likely will soon. He should be the best player on the floor in this game. Off an excellent defensive effort, note that the Aztecs are 45-7 SU and 26-17 ATS in lined games, when coming off a game where they allowed 60 or fewer points. People love a good story and many will want to embrace the Eagles here. I don't care about good stories though. I just want (ATS) winners. If you recall, a couple of 15 seeds (Norfolk State and Lehigh) advanced to the Rd. of 32 last year. They both lost by double-digits. Norfolk State got blown out by 34 points. Lehigh lost by 12. I expect another double-digit win. 10* 2nd Rd GOY |
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03-24-13 | San Antonio Spurs v. Houston Rockets +1.5 | Top | 95-96 | Win | 100 | 10 h 55 m | Show |
I'm playing on HOUSTON. Off four straight wins, the always well-coached Spurs are on a roll. However, a closer look shows that all four of those victories came at home and that 10 of their last 11 games have been played at San Antonio. (They're also only 1-4 ATS their last five overall.) The Spurs' last road game resulted in a 107-83 loss at Minnesota. They'll be playing at a much more difficult venue here and I expect their win streak to come to an end.
While the Spurs have a far superior overall record, some might be surprised to learn that the Rockets 24-10 home record is actually better than San Antonio's 23-12 mark on the road. The Rockets average 110.1 ppg on this floor, best in the entire league. They've won 10 of their last 12 here. The Spurs have won all three meetings in the season series, including the lone game here at Houston. It should be noted that Harden, who averaged 31 points in the two games at San Antonio, didn't play in the previous meeting here. Needless to say, he's a very important part of this team. While they shouldn't need any added incentive, the three previous losses should be an excellent motivator for the Rockets. They haven't been swept in four games by their instate rivals since the 2005-2006 season. The Rockets, 10-4 ATS their last 14 against teams with a winning record, are 8-5 SU/ATS the last 13 times that they were listed as home underdogs of three or fewer points, including 2-0 ATS their last two. They're off a dominant defensive effort (allowed only 78) and have quietly won four of five. Playing with "triple revenge," I say its "payback time." 10* Revenge GOM |
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03-24-13 | Charlotte Bobcats v. Miami Heat OVER 198.5 | Top | 77-109 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
I'm playing on Miami and Charlotte to finish OVER the total. The Bobcats are off a low-scoring game last night. However, their previous three games had finished with combined scores of 193, 233 and 208, each finishing above the total. I expect this one to also top the 200 mark.
The Heat have scored a minimum of 97 points in 16 straight games. They They should easily hit well into the triple-digits against a Charlotte team which allows 103.7 ppg on the road and which allows opposing teams to hit 47.7 of their field goals. On a seemingly endless win streak and favored by roughly 17 points, the Heat should feel pretty comfortable in their ability to win again tonight. I believe that will lead to the type of high tempo game with little emphasis on defense. That's often the case when the Heat are such heavy favorites, as we find the OVER at 17-10-1 the past 28 times that they were favored by greater than a dozen points here. Games here are averaging 203.8 points on the season. With the OVER at 11-7 when the Bobcats played the second of back-to-back games, I expect another relatively high-scoring affair. 10* best bet |
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03-23-13 | Indiana Pacers v. Chicago Bulls -3 | Top | 84-87 | Push | 0 | 15 h 41 m | Show |
I'm playing on CHICAGO. The Pacers have won all three of this season's meetings. The schedule favors the Bulls here though and I expect them to step up and avoid the season sweep.
While the Bulls had yesterday off, the Pacers were busy beating up on the Bucks. Admittedly, they've been solid when playing the second of back-to-back games. However, I'd still rather have the rested team. Also, with West expected to be out again - that may make the b2b spot that much harder to deal with. True, the Pacers are now 3-0 SU/ATS their last three games. However, they were on a 2-5 ATS streak over their previous seven games, losing four of those outright. Also, note that they're only 4-7 ATS when off three or more consecutive victories. The Bulls got Gibson and Hinrich back from injury on Thursday. While it can sometimes be difficult the first game a player (or players) return from injury, those guys now have a game under their belts and should provide a boost to the team going forward. The Bulls should be extremely motivated here. Not only are they playing with "triple revenge," they're also off back-to-back losses - a 1-point heartbreaker vs. Denver was followed by a disappointing 10-point loss vs. Portland. The fact that they play on the road next time out - and then vs. Miami after that, should provide even further incentive. Gibson had this to say: "Every game counts, and we need everybody. We've got to keep pushing. It doesn't get easy at all if you look at our schedule. We've got a lot of tough teams coming up. We've got to keep fighting." The Bulls have been at their best off an upset loss in recent seasons, going 31-12-1 ATS and 36-8 SU. I expect them to bounce back with a much needed win and cover here. 10* Main Event |
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03-23-13 | Butler v. Marquette -2 | Top | 72-74 | Push | 0 | 30 h 50 m | Show |
I'm playing on MARQUETTE. Long-time regulars will recall that I rode Butler hard the years the Bulldogs went to the Finals. In fact, one I successfully played on them every single game that they covered, while avoiding them in the one that they didn't. This isn't the same team though. Far from it. While still very well-coached, I feel that they'll be in over their heads here.
I really like how this one sets up for the Golden Eagles. They received their "wake up call" in the first round and I expect them to benefit from that here. While the Bulldogs also rallied from a deficit, it wasn't as dramatic as Marquette's furious comeback. The fact that the Bulldogs covered and the Golden Eagles didn't is helping to provide a little extra line value here - as the perception for some as that Marquette got a little lucky. You may recall that these teams met at the Maui Invitational, back in November. Butler won that one on a buzzer-beating 3-pointer, earning a 72-71 victory. Note that Marquette was a 4-point favorite for that one. While I'm very aware of the Bulldogs' neutral court success, I believe its payback time for Marquette today. 10* personal favorite |
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03-23-13 | Toronto Raptors +6 v. New York Knicks | Top | 84-110 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 5 m | Show |
I'm playing on TORONTO. These teams met yesterday, at the Air Canada Centre. The Knicks earned a 5-point win, which was enough for the cover. I expect the Raptors to be highly motivated for the second end of this home and home series and look for them to earn at least a cover.
While I'm aware that Rudy Gay went down last night, I believe that the Raptors will be in better shape to handle the second of back-to-back games. I was in attendance for Toronto's first win this season, a 105-86 blowout of Minnesota back in early November. Knowing what I do for a living, naturally, the people that I attended that game with wanted to know who I thought was going to win. I told them that I had a big play on the Raptors. A few of them knew my NBA history and didn't question my pick. However, a couple of the others told me that they didn't think that the Raptors, who had played the previous night, would be able to handle playing their second game in as many days. I told them that I wasn't worried about that - as the Raptors were among a group of teams that actually often plays better in that situation. That's remained true, too. In fact, including that early blowout of the T-Wolves, the Raptors are an impressive 14-5 ATS the last 19 times that they played the second of b2b games. To be fair, the Knicks have also performed well when playing the second of b2b games. That said, they're severely depleted right now. Last night, they got a huge effort from Kenyon Martin - however, I feel it will be hard for the 35-year old (who played 36 mins last night) to match that performance two nights in a row. Note that Chandler Stoudemire, Thomas and Wallace all remain out. Obviously, both teams played yesterday. However, the Knicks will also be playing their fifth game in the past seven days. The Raptors are playing their fourth game in the past seven, having played one less game during that stretch. All three of this year's games have been decided by five or less, Toronto winning the first two. With last night's win, the Knicks clinched a playoff berth. That could be cause for a minor letdown. Whether or not that proves to be the case, I expect them to have their hands full the entire way, with the Raptors earning AT LEAST a cover. 10* best bet |
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03-23-13 | Oregon v. St. Louis OVER 123.5 | Top | 74-57 | Win | 100 | 29 h 13 m | Show |
I'm playing on Oregon and St. Louis to finish OVER the total. Both these teams saw their first game finish below the total. Those results have worked in our favor, helping to keep this O/U line lower than it easily could have been. I believe that it will prove to be too low.
The Ducks began the season as a team that liked to run up and down the floor. When Dominic Artis was out with injury, that style changed quite a bit. Artis is back again now though and they're back to their up tempo ways. For the season, Oregon games are averaging 135 points. That number climbs even higher when the Ducks play outside of Eugene. Their road/neutral court games are averaging 139.3. The Billikens have long been known for defense. That remained true this season. However, they also got a lot better offensively this season, becoming a more complete overall team. Their games averaged 126.3 points and 126 on the road. While the Ducks hit a solid 44.6% of their field goals, the Billikens hit 44.8% of theirs. The Billikens have seen the OVER go 8-4 the last dozen times that they played with one or less day's rest in between games. I look for those stats to improve today. 10* blue chip |
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03-22-13 | Oklahoma v. San Diego St -2.5 | Top | 55-70 | Win | 100 | 17 h 32 m | Show |
I'm playing on SAN DIEGO STATE. I believe that the Aztecs will have some matchup advantages in this one. I also believe that their recent NCAA tournament experience will work in their favor against an Oklahoma team which hasn't been here in some time.
Both teams score roughly the same amount of points. The Sooners average 71.1 points while hitting 43.7% of their field goals. The Aztecs shoot 43.8% from the field, averaging 69.2. The Aztecs are considerably better on the other side of the ball though. They allow only 60.7 ppg while limiting opponents to a 38.8 field goal percentage. Meanwhile, the Sooners allow 66.2 ppg with opposing teams hitting 41.9% of their field goals. Those defensive differences are even more significant on the road. When the Aztecs play away from home, they allow 62.8 points and a 39.5% field goal percentage. On the other hand, the Sooners give up a high 70.4 ppg on the road, opposing teams hitting 43.5% of their field goals. Over their last five games, Oklahoma is allowing opposing teams to hit a whopping 48.3% of their field goals, permitting 74.8 ppg. Conversely, San Diego State has permitted only 63.4 ppg their last five times out, opposing teams shooing 39.1% from the field in those games. The fact that San Diego State is so stingy doesn't bode well for Oklahoma. The Sooners are only 17-23-1 ATS (14-27 SU) against teams which allow 64 or fewer points per game the past few seasons, including a 10-15 ATS (9-16 SU) mark after a minimum of 15 games of the season had been played. With an O/U line in the low to mid 130s, note that the Aztecs are 5-1 SU the last six times that they played a neutral court game with an O/U line in the 130 to 134. 5 range. Meanwhile, during the same stretch, the Sooners are only 1-3 when playing on a neutral court with an O/U line in the same range. The Aztecs aren't intimidated by "good" teams. They're 40-24-2 ATS (46-20 SU) their last 66 against teams with a winning record. During that time, Oklahoma is only 25-35 SU against winning teams, 11-22 when at least 15 games of the season had been played. I expect a win and cover for San Diego State. 10* Opening Rd GOY |
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03-22-13 | Boston Celtics v. Dallas Mavericks -4.5 | Top | 94-104 | Win | 100 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
I'm playing on DALLAS. The Celtics eked out a win in double-OT when these teams met at Boston earlier in the season, a game that Dirk Nowitzki didn't play in. With this evening's game being played at Dallas, I'm expecting a much different result.
For starters, note that the Celtics are 12-21 (2-10 vs. Western teams!) on the road. The Mavericks are 18-14 at home. Needless to say Dallas is a different team with Dirk in the lineup. Note that Notwizki averages 26.9 points (in 26 games) vs the Celtics. That's his highest average against any team. Sure, Terry would love to have a big game against his former team. However, I'd still argue that the Mavs need this game more and that they'll be the "hungrier" team. The Celtics are battling for a better seed. However, the Mavs are desperately just trying to make the playoffs. Both teams were upset last time out. The Mavs were blown out by Brooklyn, the Celtics blew a double-digit second half lead vs. New Orleans and lost a 1-point heart-breaker. I feel that the Mavs' blowout loss will be easier to recover from than the Celtics' heartrbreaker. Note that Boston is only 5-8 ATS off an upset loss while Dallas is 9-5 ATS off a double-digit loss. With the Mavs also 17-8-1 ATS after allowing 105 or more points, I'm expecting a win and cover for the "desperate" home team. 10* personal favorite |
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03-21-13 | North Carolina A&T v. Louisville UNDER 124 | Top | 48-79 | Loss | -108 | 23 h 56 m | Show |
I'm playing on Louisville and NC A&T to finish UNDER the total. The Aggies may have scored 73 points against Liberty but I don't expect them to get anywhere close to that here.
For the season, the Aggies are averaging only 62.5 points per game, and just 61.2 ppg when playing away from home. They've hit just 40.3% of their field goals on the season and that number dips to 39.5% when they play on the road. Now, they'll face the best defense that they've seen all year. The Cardinals allowed an average of just 58 points per game, holding opposing teams to only 38.8% from the field. Over their last five games, they're allowed an average of just 56.2 ppg, opposing teams hitting 38.2% of their field goals. They've held 10 straight opponents to 61 or fewer points. Louisville's Peyton Siva had this to say: 'We can play at the YMCA and I guarantee you coach Pitino will still have us pressing full court.'' While they (obviously) don't normally have to contend with teams like Louisville, the Aggies have been solid defensively themselves. They allowed an average of 61.4 ppg on the season, holding opponents to 38.3% with their field goals. Those numbers dip to 60 ppg and a fg percentage of 38 their last five. That's noteworthy as the UNDER is 30-15 the past few seasons when Louisville has faced an opponent which allows 64 or fewer points per game. The Cardinals have seen the UNDER go 5-1 their last six NCAA Tournament games. I expect them to start this year's "quest" off with a dominating defensive effort, leading to the final combined score staying beneath the number once again. 10* blue chip |
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03-21-13 | Oregon v. Oklahoma State -2 | Top | 68-55 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 33 m | Show |
I'm playing on OKLAHOMA STATE. Many seem to be picking Oregon to win this one. (That's helped us by bringing the line down a bit from its opener.) While anything is certainly possible and the Ducks may indeed deserve a slightly higher seeding than the #12 they ended up with, I believe the Cowboys are favored for good reason.
While they came up short vs K-State in their last game (a team they had beaten the previous week) the Cowboys are 4-1 ATS (5-0 SU) off a conference loss. (The lone non-cover was still an 18-point win, in a game where they were laying 18.5.) In fact, they've only lost twice in a row once all season - and that was back on New Year's Eve (1 point loss vs. Gonzaga) and the subsequent game (at K-State) to begin the new year. The Ducks did win at UNLV back in November. (The Rebels were quite inconsistent this year.) However, their non-conference slate really wasn't that difficult. The only other decent non-conf. foe was arguably Cincinnati - and the Ducks lost that one by double-digits. The Pac-12 wasn't particularly strong this season (at least not in my opinion) and, despite winning their final three games, the Ducks are still only 8-7 SU their last 15. The Cowboys have a history of taking care of business in the first round of tournament games. Indeed, they're 17-6 SU/ATS their last 23 opening round games in tournament play. The Cowboys are also 15-7 ATS (17-5 SU) the last 22 times that they were listed as neutral court favorites (or pick'em) of three or fewer points. I feel the number is more than fair and am expecting a win for the Cowboys. 10* personal favorite |
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03-21-13 | New Mexico State +9.5 v. St. Louis | Top | 44-64 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 32 m | Show |
I'm playing on NEW MEXICO STATE. The Billikens are a very solid and well-coached team. Needless to say, they've had an excellent season. That said, I feel that they're laying too many points here.
I've already acknowledged that the Billikens are a good team. The Aggies aren't slouches either though. They're here for a reason. They've got 24 wins to their credit and they only allow 62.1 points per game. This team lost some key players from last year and so a slow start to the season wasn't all that surprising. However, they got it together and have been playing great for many weeks now. In fact, the Aggies, who enter off five straight wins, have only lost two games in all of 2013. Its important to note that both losses came by six or fewer points. Even if Watson (ankle) is unable to go, I believe they have what it takes to give St. Louis all it can handle. With a 4-2 ATS (5-1 SU) mark this year, the Aggies are now an outstanding 33-16 ATS their last 49 lined games, excluding pushes, in the month of March. I believe the Aggies are playing their best basketball at the right time. While an outright win will admittedly be a tough task, I expect at least another cover. 10* best bet |
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03-20-13 | Charleston Sou +14 v. Southern Miss | Top | 71-78 | Win | 100 | 21 h 53 m | Show |
I'm playing on CHARLESTON SOUTHERN. The Golden Eagles are heavy favorites here. However, I believe that this game will mean more to the underdog Buccaneers. I expect them to be much more competitive than the pointspread suggests.
The Golden Eagles had a very solid season. They can't be too happy to be here though, as they were really hoping to make the "Big Dance." Losing in double-OT in the CUSA Finals vs. Memphis may be tough to shake off. Note that the Golden Eagles are only 5-11-1 ATS off a conference loss the past few seasons. During that stretch, they were 3-6-1 ATS when playing a game where the O/U line ranged in the 130s. On the other hand, Charleston Southern is making its first postseason appearance since the 1997 NCAA Tournament and |
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03-20-13 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Memphis Grizzlies UNDER 191.5 | Top | 89-90 | Win | 100 | 20 h 42 m | Show |
I'm playing on OKC and Memphis to finish UNDER the total. These teams have met twice so far this season. Both those games were played at Oklahoma City. Both finished above the total. Tonight, the series shifts to Memphis. I'm expecting a lower-scoring affair.
Games here are averaging only 179.8 points this season. The UNDER is a profitable 22-12. The Grizzlies have seen the UNDER go 4-0 their last four games. Those games had final combined scores of 169, 174, 167 and 181. A couple of those were against high-scoring teams (like Denver and the Clippers) too. Going back a little further finds the UNDER at 10-4 the Grizzlies last 14 games. Having allowed a mere 77 points on Monday, note that the UNDER is 18-7 the last 25 times that the Grizzlies were off a game in which they allowed 85 or fewer points. The Thunder have seen each of their last two games land right on, or near, the O/U number. Counting both of those games as "pushes," the UNDER is now 3-1-2 in OKC's last six games. With the Thunder off a loss vs Denver last night, note that the UNDER is 7-4 when OKC was playing the second of back-to-back games. With the Grizzlies now listed as small favorites, note that the Thunder have also seen the UNDER go 3-1 when listed as underdogs, 29-21 their last 50 in that role. I expect those stats to improve here. 10* blue chip |
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03-20-13 | Toronto Raptors v. Charlotte Bobcats +6 | Top | 101-107 | Win | 100 | 19 h 44 m | Show |
I'm playing on CHARLOTTE. I've successfully backed the Bobcats in each of their last two games here. They were getting a lot of points in both games. Yet, they won outright by 26 and five points. I feel that they're again providing us with value and that they again have an excellent shot at an outright upset.
While the Raptors do have a far superior overall record, a closer look reveals that their road record (9-24) is identical to the Bobcats' home record. While the Bobcats have won back-to-back home games, the Raptors have lost back-to-back road games. Their most recent road game resulted in a 24-point loss. Yet, not only are the Raptors being asked to win - they're being asked to win by a handful of points. The Bobcats haven't had much to feel good about this season - but they are feeling good right now - and I believe that they'll be motivated to keep on "rolling" tonight. Kemba Walker said this after Monday's win: "...I think we took a huge step. Being down five points and sticking with each other and being able to win." Gerald Henderson added: "We've got a lot of fight. We had a little bit of a lull in the fourth quarter, but we pulled it back and came together. We got sharp on offense and defense and got it done tonight. We've kept working and played hard. It feels good." True, the Raptors are fairly well-rested, having had the past two days off. That hasn't helped them much though. Indeed, they're 1-7 SU (3-5 ATS) the last eight times that they played with two day's of rest in between games, going a dismal 4-19 SU in that situation the past few seasons. Both the Bobcats recent home wins have come against teams (Boston and Washington) which they had beaten at least once already this season. The Raptors are another team which the Bobcats have already beaten this season. (Raptors won both meetings at Toronto but Charlotte won 98-97 the lone meeting here.) In fact, they're 4-0 SU the last four times that they hosted the Raptors and 6-1 the last seven. I'll take the generous points but won't be surprised by another "upset." 10* best bet |
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03-19-13 | Middle Tennessee St v. Saint Marys CA UNDER 132.5 | Top | 54-67 | Win | 100 | 16 h 15 m | Show |
I'm playing on St. Mary's and Middle Tennessee State to finish UNDER the total. In games which had an O/U line, the Blue Raiders have seen the UNDER go 6-0 their last six neutral court games, and 18-6 their last 24. I expect those stats to improve here.
The Blue Raiders check in allowing just 57.9 points per game. Opposing teams have shot only 39.4% from the field against them. When playing away from home, their games are averaging only 126.4 points. The Gaels are also capable defensively. They allow 63.5 points per game, limiting opposing teams to 41.9% shooting. While those defensive numbers are pretty consistent whether they're playing on the road or at home, their offensive stats go down when playing away from home. In games with a total, the Gaels have seen the UNDER go 8-3 their last 10. Both teams have had an extended layoff, which could potentially lead to some early rust. I look for the final combined score to prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. 9* |
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03-19-13 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Milwaukee Bucks -4 | Top | 95-102 | Win | 100 | 15 h 36 m | Show |
I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. The Bucks have failed to cover four games in a row. However, they snapped their 3-game SU losing streak last time out - a 6-point win - and I expect them to follow it up with a win and cover this evening.
While the Bucks had yesterday off, the Blazers are off a hard-fought and potentially demoralizing 1-point loss at Philadelphia. They'll be playing their third game in the past four nights now. The Blazers are also in one of their worst roles here. They're 2-7 ATS as road underdogs in the 3.5 to 6 range, going an ugly 8-20 ATS their last 28 in that role. Milwaukee's coach (Boylan) is demanding more from his team. He had this to say: "First of all, we are not in the playoffs. ... We need to turn it up and we need to be a serious team. Right now, we are not playing like a serious team." The Bucks already won by six at Portland at January. Last year's two meetings against the Blazers resulted in victories of 22 and 29 points. With the schedule in their favor, I expect Boylan's crew to "get serious" and another double-digit win won't surprise. 10* personal favorite |
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03-19-13 | Kentucky v. Robert Morris +5.5 | Top | 57-59 | Win | 100 | 15 h 8 m | Show |
I'm playing on ROBERT MORRIS. I've been quite successful this season when playing on/against Kentucky. I believe that this will be a good spot to go against the Wildcats.
How the mighty have fallen. Champions of the NCAA Tournament only a year ago, the (once) mighty Wildcats find themselves in the NIT. Needless to say, this is not what they were hoping for or expecting. Adding insult to injury, the Cats find themselves playing on the road, due to the fact that Rupp Arena is being used. Instead, the Cats will be playing at the "Sewall Center." Although they are surely hating being here, I don't expect the Cats to just roll over. They'd surely like to show their critics up by winning this tournament. That said, I believe that its going to be very difficult to match the emotion that Robert Morris will bring to the table. This is the biggest game ever being played here. Tuesday night classes have been cancelled. The game is a sellout - and tickets are already being scalped for many times their normal price. Senior point guard Velton Jones noted: "It's crazy around here. I saw a girl actually crying when she heard the news. There are not too many times Robert Morris has had a chance for a school like that to come here." Obviously, the Colonials don't have the same type of pedigree as Kentucky. Their schedule was certainly much easier. Still, this is a team which won 23 games. The Wildcats knew they needed to beat a mediocre Vanderbilt team in the SEC Tournament, yet they got crushed, losing 64-48. Note that they're only 1-6 ATS after scoring less than 60 points. In true road games, the Cats were only 3-8 ATS. They've only had one road win since the beginning of February (at A@M on 2/2) and that victory came by only four points. The Colonials were the best team in their conference during the regular season. This is their chance to make up for a disappointing conference tournament. In fact, while its debatable, one could argue that a win here would be even bigger than advancing to the NCAA Tournament would have been for them. The Colonials lost by only two points at Xavier and by only five at Arkansas. (Kentucky lost by 13 at Arkansas.) When playing at home, they beat Ohio by eight points, Cleveland State by nine, Bowling Green by 11 and Duquesne by 22. Robert Morris Coach Andy Toole said this of tonight's game: |
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03-18-13 | Minnesota Timberwolves v. Memphis Grizzlies -14.5 | Top | 77-92 | Win | 100 | 18 h 23 m | Show |
I'm playing on MEMPHIS. I believe that the T-Wolves are in the wrong place, at the wrong time.
I played against the Grizzlies in their last game. That was a very tough spot for them though. They were off a "heart-breaking" loss in the high altitude of Denver the previous night and were playing their fourth game in the past five days. They were also playing at a difficult venue against a rested Utah team. Tonight's game sets up much differently. This time, the Grizzlies are playing at home and had yesterday off. This time, they're taking a big step down in class to face a banged-up Minnesota team which rarely wins on the road and which played last night. While they did eke out a victory last night, the T-Wolves were at home and they were facing New Orleans. Needless to say, a road game at Memphis is an entirely different story. Throw in the fact that they'll be playing their fifth game in the last seven days and last night's win figures to take a toll. While they lost their last road game by "only" eight points, the T-Wolves previous recent road games had resulted in losses of 16, 23, 15 and 22 points. (They lost by 16 and 23 points the only previous two times that they played the second of b2b games this month.) On the season, the T-Wolves are 7-25 on the road, compared to Memphis' 25-8 mark at home. Even with the recent cover at Houston, the T-Wolves are still 1-5 ATS as road underdogs of greater than a dozen points. The Grizzlies know they can't afford to mess around with these type of games. They appear likely to face Denver in the playoffs and they'd much rather have homecourt advantage, knowing that the Nuggets are a much better team when playing in their own building. The Grizzlies have dominated Minnesota here. They're 4-1 ATS (5-0 SU) the last five meetings here, most recently a 17 point win last month. Don't be surprised if this one results in an even bigger blowout. 10* personal favorite |
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03-17-13 | Atlanta Hawks +4.5 v. Brooklyn Nets | Top | 105-93 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
I'm playing on ATLANTA. After suffering three straight losses, one of them coming against these same Nets, the Hawks have gotten back on track. Friday's double-digit win over Phoenix was on the heels of a victory against the Lakers on Wednesday. Playing with recent revenge, I expect a highly motivated effort and look for them to keep on rolling for another day.
The Nets have have the past four days off. They're only 1-3 ATS when playing with three or more day's worth of rest. With today's O/U line in the high 180s, note that the Nets are also an ugly 6-13-2 ATS the last 21 times that they played a home game with an O/U line in the 185 to 189.5 range. During that stretch, the Nets are also a poor 7-12-1 ATS when listed as home favorites in the 3.5 to 6 range. The Hawks are 22-14-1 ATS the past few seasons, when attempting to avenge an earlier home loss. I expect them to improve on those stats with AT LEAST a cover here. 10* best bet |
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03-17-13 | Mississippi v. Florida -11 | Top | 66-63 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 39 m | Show |
I'm playing on FLORIDA. The Gators are fairly heavy favorites here. However, I believe the line could easily be even higher. When these teams met (at Florida) in February, the line was -17.5. The Gators won by 14. They're 11-1 their last 12 in this series.
Despite narrowly failing to cover yesterday, the Gators still won by double-digits. They lead the nation in scoring margin, outscoring opponents by 18.9 points per game. A rough patch at the end of the regular season is now ancient history, as this team has won five straight. Even with yesterday's ATS loss, the Gators are 60-34-2 ATS (68-28 SU) their last 96 tournament games, 10-5 ATS (11-4 SU) their last 15. I feel they've got a number of advantages here and am expecting another double-digit win. 10* |
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03-16-13 | Memphis Grizzlies v. Utah Jazz -2 | Top | 84-90 | Win | 100 | 18 h 53 m | Show |
I'm playing on UTAH. These teams have met twice so far this season. Both those meetings were back in 2012. The Grizzlies won each of them. Tonight, things set up nicely for the Jazz to avenge those losses.
While the Jazz have had the past couple of day's off, the Grizzlies are in a very difficult scheduling situation. Last night, playing in the high altitude of Denver, the Grizzlies coughed up a fourth quarter lead, en route to a hard-fought and disappointing 87-80 loss. That type of loss can be difficult to immediately bounce back from. This is much worse than a "typical" back-to-back situation though. That's because the Grizzlies will also be playing their fourth game in the past five days AND their sixth game in the past nine. That's a very grueling stretch and this is not an easy venue to play at. While the Grizzlies are still a solid 19-12 on the road, the Jazz are an outstanding 23-8 here at Utah. While their last two home games both resulted in double-digit wins, the Jazz did get blown out at OKC last time out. That should provide them with some added motivation here. Utah's Gordon Hayward noted: "We're trying to get in the playoffs we can't have games like this. We were down by 20-plus points and that's just stupid. We gotta execute our offense better." The Jazz are 10-7 (11-6 SU) off a double-digit loss. Even with the loss here at December, they've won 24 of their last 31 as a host in this series. With the schedule in their favor, I expect them to bounce back with an important win and cover. 10* personal favorite |
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03-16-13 | Wisconsin v. Indiana -6 | Top | 68-56 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
I'm playing on INDIANA. Give the Badgers credit for playing a great game yesterday and having a strong season. However, this Indiana team, arguably as talented as any in the country, is a different beast - one which I expect to be extremely hungry.
The Hoosiers blew out Illinois by 16 points yesterday, a game which was never in doubt. They dominated in the paint, Zeller having a huge game. The Hoosiers already believe they deserve to be a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. However, that's certainly not a given. Adding their first ever Big Ten touney title to a season that already saw them win their first outright conference title would ensure that. I don't expect them to leave anything to chance. As if they didn't already have enough to play for, the fact that the Badgers beat them in the regular season, should provide the Hoosiers with plenty of motivation. While the Badgers are 2-6 ATS their last eight tournament semi-final games. the Hoosiers are 4-1 ATS their last five tournament semi-final games. I feel that they've got a "score to settle" and I look for them to get their "payback" in convincing fashion this afternoon. 10* personal favorite |
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03-15-13 | San Diego St +1.5 v. New Mexico | Top | 50-60 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 56 m | Show |
I'm playing on SAN DIEGO STATE. I backed the Aztecs in their first game of this tournament. While it may not have been "pretty," I feel that game played out the best way that the Aztecs could have hoped for.
The Aztecs jumped out to a big lead in that game vs. Boise State. However, they allowed the Broncos to come charging all the way back. They didn't fold though. Rather, they stayed strong, showed some fortitude, took Boise's best shot and then responded by earning the win and cover. In recent years, the Aztecs have been a team that has fared very well in close games. However, this year's team has largely struggled in close games. That's why I feel that winning a close one was so "good for them." Despite earning the win over Boise, the Aztecs are still on the bubble - although they could very well make it, even with a loss here. While the current roster of players wasn't around at the time, coach Fisher will surely have reminded them of what happened in 2009. In case you don't remember, the 2009 Aztecs were also "on the bubble." They got all the way to the tournament title game but lost, 52-50, to Utah. On "Selection Sunday," San Diego State was left off the field. Instead of going to the Big Dance, they were forced to do their "dancing" at the NIT. Needless to say, they don't want to leave anything to chance this time. New Mexico is indeed a very good team. The Lobos likely won't have the same sense of urgency as the Aztecs though, as they know they're already going to the NCAA Tournament. Note that the Aztecs are 11-8-1 ATS the last 20 times that they were listed as underdogs. They're also 40-23-2 ATS (46-19 SU) their last 65 against teams with a winning record and 22-10-1 (24-9 SU) their last 33 against teams which allow 64 or fewer points per game. While the Lobos did beat the Aztecs at "The Pit" a few weeks ago, the Aztecs pounded them (55-34) at San Diego State in the first meeting. (That was the fewest points New Mexico had scored since the mid-70s!) I backed them in that game and I'm doing so again here. 10* best bet |
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03-15-13 | Cleveland Cavaliers +7.5 v. Dallas Mavericks | Top | 86-96 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 42 m | Show |
I'm playing on CLEVELAND. The Cavs may be banged-up and they may be playing out the strong. However, they're still fighting hard. They've got the schedule in their favor and I expect another big effort.
Last time out, despite playing without Irving (and Varejao) the Cavs beat Washington by five points. That was their second straight cover. They're now a profitable 9-3 ATS their last 12 games, winning six of those games outright. The six losses came by 1, 4, 16, 5, 9 and 4 points. In other words, only two of their last 12 games has resulted in a loss of greater than five points. The Cavs, 6-6 SU when playing with two day's rest, are well-rested. They last played on Tuesday. On the other hand, the Mavericks are off a hard-fought 1-point loss at rival San Antonio last night. That's the type of "heart-breaker" which can often be difficult to immediately bounce back from. That may be particularly true here, due to that loss really hurting their playoff chances. In addition to playing the second of back-to-back games, the Mavs will also be playing their third game in the past four days and their fourth game in the past six. Throw in the fact that they've got a big game vs. Oklahoma City on deck, a team which blew them out last month, and I feel that this will prove to be a very difficult scheduling spot. While they did win at Cleveland back in November, the Mavs are still a money-burning 6-16 ATS against teams from the Central the past few seasons. I expect them to have their hands full the entire way here, as the Cavs earn AT LEAST the cover, improving to 6-2 ATS when playing a road game with an O/U line of 200 to 204.5. 10* |
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03-15-13 | Minnesota Timberwolves v. Houston Rockets -14 | Top | 100-108 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 8 m | Show |
I'm playing on HOUSTON. I played against the T-Wolves last time out. They hung around for awhile but eventually lost by 16. It was the third time in their last four games that the T-Wolves lost by a minimum of 16 points. The other two losses, during that stretch, both came by 23 points. I expect them to get blown out again here.
The Rockets have been excellent at home all season. They're 21-9 here, going 20-10 SU. Their last two games here have resulted in victories of 30 and 33 points. Note that they're 13-7 ATS off a double-digit win. Dealing with major injury issues, the T-Wolves are now 2-9 their last 11 games, going 4-7 against the number. That includes a 0-6 mark on the road. Five of those road losses, including each of the last four, came by a minimum of 15 points. On the season, the T-Wolves are now 0-5 ATS as road underdogs of greater than a dozen points. They're also 2-8-1 ATS (1-10 SU) their last 11 against teams with a winning record. The fact that the T-Wolves humiliated them at Minnesota in the last month should have ensure that the Rockets are fully focused here. Of course, having the Lakers and Jazz (and Mavs and Blazers) nipping at their heels should be more than enough motivation. The Rockets are much healthier, playing with revenge, playing at home and have much more to play for. I expect them to take care of business, picking up the cover along the way. 10* personal favorite |
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03-14-13 | New York Knicks v. Portland Trail Blazers -3.5 | Top | 90-105 | Win | 100 | 17 h 19 m | Show |
I'm playing on PORTLAND. The Knicks are normally a pretty "popular" team. Off back-to-back blowout losses, many might be tempted to grab the points with them here. The Blazers have a number of advantages though and I expect another big loss for NY.
While I certainly don't ignore them, I sometimes don't give as much weight to injuries as many handicapper probably do. Players are in this league for a reason and many back-ups are capable of rising to the occasion, when injuries to starters provide them with an opportunity. That said, the Knicks' current injury issues can't be ignored. Like him or not, Carmelo Anthony remains one of the most talented players in the game. He'll be back in New York by the time that the Knicks play tonight's game. Normally, that might provide a chance for Stoudemire to step up and be the man. However, he's out too. Perhaps worse, Tyson Chandler got hurt last night. I'm currently seeing him listed as doubtful. However, even if he is able to go, he may not be 100%. Add it all up and the Knicks have a seriously depleted front court. That should allow the Blazers a solid edge in the paint. Note that they already out-rebounded the Knicks by a 45-35 margin at NY, winning 105-100. Sure, the Knicks would love to get back on track and to avenge that loss. They're only 10-14 ATS in the "revenge" role though. So, that's generally not a huge motivator for them. Getting blown out in their previous game doesn't necessarily provide the Knicks with much extra incentive either. In fact, they're now only 16-23-2 (14-27 SU!) the past few seasons, off a double-digit loss. True, the Knicks have been OK when playing the second of back-to-back games. This is worse than a typical b2b spot though. First, there are the injuries to consider. Second, last night's game was in the high altitude of Denver. Third, this will also be NY's third game in four days. Going back a bit further finds that the Knicks will be playing their sixth game in the last nine days, a span that has seen them fly all over the country. Going back still further shows that this is their eight game in the past 12 days and ninth through the first 14 days of March. Meanwhile, the Blazers had yesterday off and will be playing just their seventh game in March. The Blazers aren't currently in the top eight. However, they're not that far off. Seeing the Lakers lose (and Kobe go down) last night should have them feeling hopeful again. They also should be playing with some "desperation." As LaMarcus Aldridge noted: "Definitely that door is closing. We're going to have to string together some wins fast or that door is going to close on us.'' The Blazers have won seven of their last 10 here at the Rose Garden and the three losses came by only 11 combined points. With the schedule in their favor, I expect them to earn a much needed victory, picking up the cover along the way. *10 TNT GOM |
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03-14-13 | New York Knicks v. Portland Trail Blazers OVER 193.5 | Top | 90-105 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
I'm playing on Portland and NY to finish OVER the total. While I'm obviously aware of the Carmelo injury, I feel that this number is a little on the low side.
This season's previous meeting had an O/U line of 197. It finished with 205 points. Prior to that, the previous meeting came exactly one year. That 3/14/2012 meeting had an O/U line of 199 and finished with 200. The Knicks, who got blown out, giving up 117 points, at Denver last night, have seen the OVER go 8-4 when playing the second of back-to-back games. Note that the OVER is also 4-2 when they attempted to avenge an earlier home loss. With the Knicks averaging 99.3 ppg on the season, note that the OVER is 8-1 the last nine times that the Blazers faced a team which averages 99 or more points per game. With the severely Knicks banged-up on the inside, I expect the Blazers to be able to score plenty of points in the paint. Meanwhile, with the Knicks in a tough scheduling spot and possibly with some weary legs, I also expect the Blazers to look to push the pace. I look for the final combined score to prove higher than most will be expecting and with the O/U line having fallen a bit from its opener, I feel we're getting excellent value. 10* blue chip |
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03-14-13 | Tex San Antonio v. Louisiana Tech -10 | Top | 73-67 | Loss | -106 | 16 h 12 m | Show |
I'm playing on LOUISIANA TECH. I believe that there's a large gap in talent between these teams, even larger than the (fairly high) pointspread indicates. I also believe that the Roadrunners are catching the Bulldogs at the wrong time.
A look at the overall records shows Texas-San Antonio at just 9-21, including a 1-9 mark vs. teams with a winning record. Meanwhile, LA Tech checks in with a 26-5 mark. As I said, the gap between these teams is a wide one. Note that Roadrunners are 1-2 their last three games. The two losses came at Utah State and vs. Seattle. they lost those games by 20 and 16 points, respectively. Some of you may recall that I played against the Bulldogs exactly one week ago. (At New Mexico State on 3/7.) At the time, LA Tech was on a huge undefeated streak and had made its way all the way into the Top 25. However, I felt the Bulldogs were a bit over-valued and noted that I felt they were walking into a hornet's nest. What happened? The Bulldogs got smoked by 18 points, losing 78-60. I didn't touch their next game, as I felt the line was about right and wasn't quite sure how LA Tech would respond to the big loss at New Mexico State. However, the Bulldogs would go on to lose by an even bigger margin, getting crushed 78-54 at Denver. Needless to say, I wish I played against them there, too. I believe that those losses have worked in our favor. For starters, they should have the Bulldogs fully "wide awake" again, as they look to regain their swagger. They also very likely killed their chances of receiving an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament. Certainly, they can't afford to lose here. The Roadrunners should represent an ideal opponent for the Bulldogs to "get healthy" against. Lets not forget that LA Tech is 15-0 SU against teams with a losing record this season and 15-7-1 ATS (23-0 SU!) when favored. In other words, while they may have had some trouble on the road against top tier opponents, the Bulldogs have been a team that knows how to take care of business against weaker opposition. When these teams faced each other last month, laying 15.5 points, the Bulldogs won by 25. They were up 15 by halftime and never looked back. While LA Tech is still averaging 80.8 points its past five games, Texas San Antonio is averaging only 61. The Bulldogs are 7-2 SU/ATS their last nine "neutral court" games, including a 2-0 ATS mark when favored in the 9.5 to 12 range. I'm expecting a double-digit win. 10* personal favorite |
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03-13-13 | Boise State v. San Diego St -4 | Top | 67-73 | Win | 100 | 31 h 40 m | Show |
I'm playing on SAN DIEGO STATE. These teams just faced each other a few days ago, at Boise. The Broncos won that game by a score of 69-65. I expect the Aztecs to return the favor on Wednesday.
Recent results have kept this line lower than it could have easily been. That puts the Aztecs in one of their better roles. They're 6-3 SU/ATS the last nine times that they were favored by four or fewer points, going 13-7 ATS (14-6 SU) their last 20 in that role. One could potentially make a case that the Broncos need this one more. While the Aztecs should already be safely in the field of 64, the Broncos may need a win here to punch their ticket. Needing a game more doesn't guarantee victory though. Far from it. I'm also not so sure that the Broncos do need this one more. Having lost a number of close ones, the Aztecs have badly want some momentum, entering the tournament. Coach Fisher said this of the regular season loss at Boise: "It's not OK. We've had too many like this. We've been close but not been able to make that extra play, get that one whistle, make that one basket." The fact is that the 3/9 game at Boise didn't mean much of anything for the Aztecs. They played sloppily and made numerous mistakes. Yet, they still nearly won. Now playing on a neutral court, playing with recent revenge and with much more to play for, I expect them to improve their game and to come away with the win and cover. 10* personal favorite |
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03-13-13 | Minnesota Timberwolves v. Indiana Pacers -13.5 | Top | 91-107 | Win | 100 | 14 h 2 m | Show |
I'm playing on INDIANA. This one sets up nicely for a big win for the home team.
The Pacers had the past two days off. In addition to being well-rested, they should be in a foul mood, after getting blown out by the Heat in their last game. Note that the Pacers are 8-1 ATS off a double-digit loss. Adding to their "anger" and likelihood that they'll keep the pedal to the metal the entire way, the Pacers haven't forgotten that they lost at Minnesota earlier. They've still dominated the T-Wolves in recent seasons though, including a 23-point victory the last time that the teams played here at Indiana. While the Pacers come in with fresh legs, the same cannot be said for the T-Wolves. They left everything on the floor in upsetting San Antonio last night. Now, in addition to playing the second of back-to-back games, this banged-up team will also be playing its fourth game in the past five days. Even with last night's win, the T-Wolves are still only 2-7-1 ATS (1-9 SU) their last 10 against teams with a winning record. (They're now 4-40 SU the past few years, when facing a team with a winning record, during the second half of the season.) Meanwhile, during the same stretch, the Pacers are 7-1 SU/ATS when facing a team with a losing record. For the season, the Pacers are a dominating 26-14 (32-8 SU) when laying points. With everything in their favor, I expect them to improve on those stats this evening. 10* personal favorite |