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Ben Burns Basketball Top Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-13-13 | Miami Heat v. Philadelphia 76ers +9 | Top | 98-94 | Win | 100 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. I won with the 76'ers in their last game, an upset win over Brooklyn. I feel that this will be another good spot to back them.
While the 76'ers had yesterday off, the Heat were busy beating up on Atlanta. Tonight, in addition to playing the second of back-to-back games, they'll be playing their third game in the past four days. This will also mark their 7th game in the last 11 days. Even with a cover last night, the Heat are still only 4-5 ATS their last nine games, one of the those ATS losses coming vs. the 76ers on 3/8. The 76'ers lost that game but only by nine points, enough to earn the cover. Playing at home and with the schedule in their favor, I expect them to play the Heat even tougher tonight. In fact, while I'll happily grab all those generous points, I won't even be "shocked" if they step up and score the outright win. *10 best bet |
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03-12-13 | Boston Celtics v. Charlotte Bobcats +10.5 | Top | 74-100 | Win | 100 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
I'm playing on CHARLOTTE. I'm well aware of how poorly the Bobcats have been playing. In fact, I successfully played against them in their very last game, while also cashing on the over in the same contest. While I've avoided them during their skid, I feel that they're ready to give their best effort tonight and feel that they're providing us with very value this evening.
As you are likely aware, the Bobcats haven't won too many games this season. They did beat the Celtics the last time that they faced them though, a 94-91 win almost exactly one month ago. Taking a look at that line and we find that Charlotte was only a 4.5 point underdog. We're getting significantly more points to work with here. In fact, this line is as high as it was when the Bobcats played at Boston, in January. The Celtics have won five of their last seven. However, NONE of those victories came by more than eight points. Having played a number of "big games," most recently against OKC on national TV, they may not be fully focused on the lowly Bobcats. Note that the Celtics are only 6-10 ATS (7-9 SU) off a double-digit loss. They're also 5-7 ATS the last dozen times that they were listed as road favorites in the 9.5 to 12 range. These same two teams will face each other at Boston again on 3/16. I feel that will work in our favor. The Celtics will think that they can easily blow out the Bobcats in that one; the Bobcats will also know that getting blown out there is a distinct possibility and that if they want to be competitive that tonight's likely their best chance. It should also be noted that Boston plays tomorrow while Charlotte has the next two days off. Note that the Celts are 3-3 the last six times that they played the front end of b2b games and that NONE of the three victories came by more than eight points. They're 4-7 SU in that situation since the beginning of December, only one win coming by more than eight. Overall, the Celts remain a poor 12-19 (12-17-2 ATS) on the road. Add it all up and I don't feel that they're ready to be laying double-digits here, not even against the Bobcats. 10* NBA Shocker GOM |
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03-11-13 | Saint Marys CA +6 v. Gonzaga | Top | 51-65 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 18 m | Show |
I'm playing on ST. MARY'S. I respect Gonzaga. The Bulldogs are very well-coached. They're talented and they've had a great year. They also know they likely need this game to give them a #1 seed in the upcoming tournament. That doesn't mean that they can't be over-valued though. I believe that's the case here.
The Gaels are also well-coached and they're also talented. They didn't have quite as good a year as the Bulldogs - thanks largely to two head-to-head losses - but they were still very solid. Indeed, they bring a 27-5 record to the table. While Gonzaga is going for a #1 seed, the Gaels arguably have even more motivation. Not only are they looking to avenge the pair of regular season losses but they are still trying to guarantee a trip to the Big Dance. A loss here and there's a chance that they could find themselves playing in a lesser tournament. (They could very well still make it but definitely would rather not leave anything to chance.) As Gonzaga coach Mark Few noted: "We're going to have to match the intensity of our opponent. There's a sense of desperation when you don't know if you're in the NCAA tournament." While it wasn't pretty, the Gaels gutted out an OT win over San Diego to get here, one of their players (Waldow) losing a tooth in the process - and still putting up huge stats. I believe that's the type of performance that they can build some momentum from, the type that brings a team together. Note that the Gaels were only underdogs twice all season, once at Gonzaga and once at BYU. They covered both times, winning outright at BYU. Two of the last three meetings between these rivals were decided by five or fewer points. Last year's WCC Final needed overtime to produce a winner. I expect another close one and with the line having climbed a bit from its opener, I feel we're getting excellent value with the revenge-minded "desperate" underdog. 10* main event |
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03-10-13 | Milwaukee Bucks v. Sacramento Kings -1 | Top | 115-113 | Loss | -108 | 14 h 57 m | Show |
I'm playing on SACRAMENTO. Daylight savings snuck up on me and has me running a bit short on time today. As a result, my writeups may be a little more brief than usual. Rest assured. the same amount of time was spent researching the plays, as always.
This one sets up nicely for the Kings. While Sacramento has last night off, the Bucks are off a late game at Oakland. While some teams are OK when playing the second of back-to-back games, the Bucks typically aren't one of them. They're 4-10-1 ATS their last 15 in that situation and 25-34-1 (23-37 SU) their last 60. The Kings won big last time out, scoring 121 points and hitting a whopping 54.9% of their field goals. They've now covered three of their past four and five of their past seven. Going back a little further finds them at 10-5 ATS their last 15. (Even with last night's win, the Bucks are 5-12 ATS since the end of January.) The Kings lost at Milwaukee back in December but they've had some success against the Bucks here at Sacramento over the years. They were three point underdogs for last year's meeting here. Down by 19 at halftime, they rallied for a 103-100 victory. Hopefully they won't have to dig themselves out of such a big hole here. Either way. I expect the end result to be the same. 10* nba personal favorite |
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03-10-13 | Boston Celtics v. Oklahoma City Thunder -9.5 | Top | 79-91 | Win | 100 | 22 h 54 m | Show |
I'm playing on OKLAHOMA CITY. Off five straight victories, the Celtics are rolling. None of those games have come against the Thunder though. I expect the Celts win streak to come to an end here.
The Thunder are also playing well. They're 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS their last eight games. Their last home game resulted in a 17-point rout of the Lakers. Their previous three games here saw them win by 45, 30 and 16 points. Including those blowout victories, the Thunder are 27-4 at home. On the other hand, even with a few recent wins, the Celts remain a poor 12-18 away from Boston. While the Celts are still hoping to finish in the top four in the East, the Thunder now believe they have a real shot at first in the West. The Thunder play with "revenge," as they were beaten at Boston back in November. That doesn't mean much to a lot of teams. However, the Thunder tend to thrive in the revenge role. With the recent beat-down of the Lakers, they're 12-6 ATS the last 18 times that they attempted to avenge an earlier loss, going 51-30 ATS (54-27 SU) in that role the past few seasons and a lucrative 100-63-1 ATS their last 164. Last year's meeting here saw the Thunder win by 15 points, a 119-104 blowout. I'm expecting another double-digit win here. 10* main event |
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03-09-13 | SEATTLE U +6 v. IDAHO U | Top | 72-76 | Win | 100 | 16 h 21 m | Show |
I'm playing on SEATTLE. My very first play of this NCAA season was on Seattle. The Redhawks crushed Montana State by a score of 87-72. At the time, I said that I expected them to "play with a chip on their shoulder," attempting to show that they belong in the WAC. (This was the first year they made the jump to Div 1 basketball.)
The season hasn't gone exactly as planned for the Redhawks, as they've had a lot more losses than wins. However, one area which as remained consistent is their effort on the road, where they rarely get blown out. In their last true road game, the Redhawks won by 16 at Texas San Antonio. Their previous road game resulted in a 2-point loss at Texas State. Their previous road game came at New Mexico State, which is not an easy place to play. Getting 14 points, the Redhawks lost by only three. Other notable road efforts include a seven point loss at LA Tech, also a very difficult venue and single digit road losses at Utah State and Stanford. Prior to the narrow loss at LA Tech, they won by 17 at Texas Arlington, which was preceded by a 5-point loss at SJ State. Indeed, this team has been very competitive on the road all season long and that's led to a lucrative 8-3 ATS away record. The Redhawks are now 10-4 ATS their L14 lined road games. Meanwhile, the Vandals check in with a terrible 1-11 ATS record in their home lined games. These teams played a close game at Seattle on 12/29. The Redhawks led at halftime but the Vandals would go on to win by a 71-64 margin. The most recent meeting (2/7/12) here at Idaho was even closer. The Redhawks had a 45-33 lead at halftime but the Vandals came back to beat them by a single point, 70-69. I still feel that the Redhawks "have something to prove." Playing with revenge from the earlier loss at Seattle, I expect them to again give the Vandals all they can handle and I won't be at all surprised if they shock them with an outright win. 10* shocker GOM |
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03-09-13 | Fresno State v. UNLV -14 | Top | 61-52 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
I'm playing on UNLV. While the margin of defeat at Air Force was a little bigger, a 64-55 loss at Fresno State on 2/6 was arguably the low point of the Rebels' season. It marked the only time all season that the Rebels lost two games in row and was their biggest upset loss. (They were favored by 3.5 when they lost at AF but but 8.5 when they lost at Fresno.)
Off five straight victories, the Rebels are now playing much better than they were for last month's meeting with the Bulldogs. I expect them to avenge that loss in convincing fashion. The Bulldogs may have beaten the Rebels earlier and they are coming off a win in their home finale, however they're still the worst team in the Mountain West. The fact that they've covered some games recently has worked in out favor, in helping to keep this line more reasonable than it would have been otherwise. Bottom line. The Rebels are a much stronger and more complete team. Last month's embarrassing result and the fact that this is their regular season home finale should ensure that they keep the pedal to the metal the entire way. 10* |
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03-09-13 | Dayton v. George Washington +1 | Top | 80-81 | Win | 100 | 8 h 14 m | Show |
I'm playing on GEORGE WASHINGTON. Admittedly, Dayton enters as the hotter team. The Flyers do also have some motivation, as they are trying to improve their seeding in the upcoming A-10 tournament. I believe the Colonials will want this one even more though.
Not only is this "senior day" and their final regular season home game, its also potentially their final game overall. That's because this team is in danger of missing the A-10 tourney entirely. However, a win this afternoon could potentially change that. I expect to see an extremely hungry team. The Flyers did win their last road game. However, they're still a dismal 2-7 on the road, 1-7 their last eight. The Colonials have also had trouble on the road of late and they did also lose their last home game. However, that was against a very strong St. Louis squad and they were in it the entire way, leading in the second half. Their previous home game resulted in an eight point win. The Colonials have won eight of the last 11 as a host in this series, most recently a 60-58 win here in March of 2011. I expect homecourt to prove the difference, as an extremely motivated effort leads to a victory for the home fans. 10* motivational mismatch |
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03-08-13 | Toronto Raptors v. Los Angeles Lakers UNDER 206.5 | Top | 116-118 | Loss | -106 | 17 h 27 m | Show |
I'm playing on LA and Toronto to finish UNDER the total. The Lakers are off back-to-back high-scoring games, each of which topped the total. That brings the "over" to 4-1 their last five. Those recent results are working in our favor, helping to provide us with a generously high O/U number to work with. I believe that it will prove to be too high.
A closer look at the Lakers' last five games reveals that the four games which topped the total all came against Western Conference foes. The lone game which came against an Eastern Conference team (Atlanta on 3/3) stayed well below the total of 205, finishing with 197 combined points. Playing high-scoring games against Western Conf. teams than Eastern Conf. ones has actually been normal for the Lakers for quite some time. In fact, the "over" is a lucrative 25-13-1 when the Lakers faced a conference opponent this season but the UNDER is a profitable 15-8 when they were matched up against a non-conference team. Going back further finds the UNDER at an outstanding 46-24-1 the past few seasons, when the Lakers have faced an Eastern Conf. opponent. (During that time, the Raptors have seen the UNDER go 41-34 against Western Conf. teams.) It should also be mentioned that the UNDER is 15-9-1 the last 25 times that the Lakers had scored 105 or more in their previous game. A quick glance at this season's earlier meeting, which was played at Toronto on 1/20 shows a final combined score of 211, in favor of the Raptors, enough to finish above the O/U line of 201.5. However, the final score of that game doesn't tell the entire story. For starters, Jose Calderon had 22 points and nine assists to lead the Raptors. He's no longer with the team. Also, Landry Fields had arguably his best game of the season, producing 18 points and 10 rebounds. That's unlikely to happen again. Additionally, Pau Gasol contributed 25 points for the Lakers, out-scoring Calderon, his countryman. As you're probably aware, Gasol is out. So, thats 47 points from the two Spaniards that we won't be seeing tonight. An even closer look at the 1/20 meeting reveals that Dwight Howard was ejected in the first half. (As I write this, Howard is listed as probable for tonight's game.) Without Howard, the Lakers were unable to defend the paint properly. Earl Clark said this of Dwight's absence: "When he's gone, it's just a layup special." The Raptors are off one of their best defensive performances of the season. They went into Phoenix and limited the Suns to a mere 71 points on their own home floor, holding the Suns to just 37.8% with their field goals. The UNDER is now 11-6 their last 17 games. Despite all that, we're getting a considerably higher line to work with than we were for the earlier meeting at Toronto. I feel that's providing us with excellent value and am expecting a relatively low-scoring affair. 10* best bet |
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03-08-13 | Kent State v. Akron -8.5 | Top | 68-64 | Loss | -106 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
I'm playing on AKRON. The Zips have had an excellent regular season. I expect them to cap it off with a blowout win tonight.
The Zips saw their dream of a perfect "MAC" record shattered a couple of games ago, losing at Buffalo. Unfazed, they returned home and responded with a double-digit win over Miami Ohio last time out. The game was relatively close at halftime but the Zips pulled away in the second half, scoring 41 while allowing only 30. Admittedly, the Golden Flashes have been playing well and they are still trying to crack the Top 4 in conference play. That said, I don't think they match up well here - and I expect them to be in over their heads vs. a very solid and balanced Akron squad. At first glance, this line may initially seem a little high. However, its come down a bit from its opener and I believe it could well be higher, if not for Akron failing to cover in back-to-back games. Keep in mind that the Zips are still a fantastic 36-19-2 ATS (51-6 SU) the past few seasons, when laying points. The Zips also tend to be at their best against other good teams. They're 7-2 ATS against teams with a winning record, going 33-16 ATS the past few seasons. That includes a superb 20-5 ATS record, when facing a team with a winning record after at least 15 games of the season had been played - 3-0-1 ATS this season. (The lone push came against the Golden Flashes, a 4-point win at Kent State.) Kent State has been respectable on the road, outscoring teams by a 69.7 to 66.5 margin. However, the Zips have been dominant in going undefeated here at home. They've outscored teams by a 76.2 to 58.8 mark here, outshooting them by a 48% to 37.6% margin from the field. Last year's regular season meeting here saw Akron win by nine, laying 4.5. This year's team is even stronger and I'm expecting them to "make a statement" with an even bigger margin of victory. 10* personal favorite |
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03-07-13 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Denver Nuggets UNDER 213 | Top | 92-107 | Win | 100 | 16 h 53 m | Show |
I'm playing on Denver and LA to finish UNDER the total. These teams are certainly both very capable offensively. That said, I feel that this O/U number, which has climbed from its opener, is a little on the high side.
Clipper games are averaging 194.9 points this season. Their road games are averaging 192.5. Denver games have been higher-scoring but still not as high as tonight's total. Games here are averaging 207.7. Overall, Nugget games are averaging 207.5. This season's first meeting between these teams produced 212 combined points, a 112-100 win for the Clippers on their home floor. That game had an O/U line of only 204. The rematch, which was played here at Denver, had an O/U line of 207.5. I played on both Denver AND the Under in that game, so was very pleased to see the Nuggets win by a score of 92-78, a double-digit winner with the side and a 37 point winner with the total. (The previous meeting here at Denver, which occurred last April, finished with 202 combined points.) Note that the UNDER is 17-12 when the Clippers were off a double-digit win and 10-7 when the Clippers were playing with "revenge." Tonight, we're getting an even higher O/U line to work with, which I feel is providing excellent value. While its unlikely to be another 37 point win, I expect the end result to be the same. 10* blue chip |
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03-07-13 | Louisiana Tech v. New Mexico State -2 | Top | 60-78 | Win | 100 | 14 h 1 m | Show |
I'm playing on NEW MEXICO STATE. The Bulldogs have had a great season. They're on an extended winning streak and come in with the better overall record. The Aggies have also had a very strong season though and their home record is superior to LA Tech's mark on the road. I believe that they're favored for good reason.
The Bulldogs have played their last three at home, where they've been unbeatable. A look at their schedule reveals that only nine of their last 21 games have come on the road. None of those opponents (Idaho, Seattle, Texas State, SJ State, Texas SA, Texas Arlington, Arkansas LR, Mcneese St, NW State) are as good at home as the Aggies are. The Bulldogs lost at Northwestern State and also at McNeese State. They won at Arkansas Little Rock by only two and at Texas Arlington by just three. Wins at Texas San Antonio and at Utah State also came by only two and three points. In fact, only the wins at SJ St and Texas State came by greater than six points. In other words, despite playing at venues that arguably aren't as tough as this one, the Bulldogs have been "eking out" a lot of their road wins. The Aggies lost at Denver last time out but did cover the spread. They're 9-5 SU/ATS off a conference loss the past couple of seasons. During that time, they're 11-7 ATS when attempting to avenge an earlier road loss. With the cover at Denver, the Aggies are 7-3 ATS their last 10 lined games in March, going a lucrative 30-14 ATS their last 44, excluding pushes. Note that the Aggies are 2-0 ATS the past couple of seasons, when listed as home favorites of three or fewer points. While the Aggies did come up short at LA Tech, they've dominated the Bulldogs here for years. They'll need to play their best game to continue that domination but I feel that they'll be up for the task. 10* personal favorite |
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03-07-13 | Virginia Cavaliers v. FLORIDA STATE +4.5 | Top | 51-53 | Win | 100 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
I'm playing on FLORIDA STATE. The Cavaliers crushed the Seminoles when these teams met at Virginia. No surprise there. The Cavs are 17-1 at home while the Noles are 7-7 on the road. Tonight's rematch is at Tallahassee though and the Cavs aren't even close to being the same team on the road that they are at home. I believe the Noles have an excellent shot at the upset.
Last time out, the Cavs lost 53-52 at Boston College. Their previous two road games also both resulted in losses. Granted, those were at very difficult venues (Miama and UNC) but the fact remains that this team isn't the same away from home. They've lost at Georgia Tech by six and at Clemson by 15. They've also lost at George Mason and a neutral court game at Old Dominion. Note that the Cavs are just 5-11 ATS the last 16 times that they were listed as road favorites in the 3.5 to 6 range, 1-2 ATS in that role this season. With the loss at BC, its also worth pointing out that Virginia is now a dismal 21-39-1 ATS (19-42 SU) its last 61 games played in the month of March. The Noles, 10-4 ATS in March the past couple of seasons, are 3-0 ATS the last three times that they attempted to avenge a loss of 20 or more points. They tend to fare well in games here which are expected to be low-scoring, going 9-1 SU (6-2-2 ATS) the last 10 times that that they played a home game with an O/U line in the 120s. The Noles beat the Cavs by three here last season and are 11-2 SU and 9-4 ATS the last 13 times that they were a host in the series. They've won back-to-back games here, most recently blowing out Wake Forest by 14. I backed them in that game and I feel they're in a good spot to earn us AT LEAST another cover here. 9* best bet |
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03-06-13 | Boston Celtics v. Indiana Pacers -9 | Top | 83-81 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
I'm playing on INDIANA. The Celtics beat me yesterday. That won't prevent me from going against them again today though.
Even with last night's win, the Celtics are still a poor 11-18 on the road. On the other hand, the Pacers are a very impressive 25-6 here at Indiana. That includes a 21-3 mark their last 24 here. The Pacers are also playing some of their best basketball of the season. They've won 11 of 14 in the second half, going 10-4 ATS. That includes a 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS mark their last eight games. While the Celtics are playing the second of back-to-back games, the Pacers had the past two days off. Note that Indiana is 7-4 ATS in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the Celtics are 6-7-2 ATS when playing the second of b2b games, going a money-burning 19-34-2 ATS in that situation the past few seasons. The Pacers should have payback on their minds, as the Celtics pounded them earlier, at Boston. Knowing that they could see the Celts in the playoffs, the Pacers should be motivated to "make a statement" and to deliver a message that they can beat Boston. (That's particularly true given that the Celts have now beaten them three straight and eight of 11.) The Pacers are 25-13 ATS (31-7 SU) when laying points and they're 10-1 ATS off a divisional game. With the schedule and venue in their favor, I'm expecting a "blowout." 10* personal favorite |
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03-06-13 | Georgetown v. Villanova -1.5 | Top | 57-67 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
I'm playing on VILLANOVA. The Hoyas boast the superior record and ranking. I believe that the Wildcats are favored for good reason.
While the Hoyas are looking to improve their NCAA tournament positioning by locking down a #1 seed, the Wildcats are still looking to guarantee that they punch their ticket. Needless to say, a win here would go a long way. I feel that they'll be a little more hungry, as a result. The Wildcats do have wins over the likes of Louisville and Syracuse, teams which were ranked #5 and #3 at the time. However, after missing the NCAA tournament last season, they don't want to leave anything to chance. Villanova coach Jay Wright had this to say: "We understand there are implications to this game. Playing in the Big East Conference, you aren't fazed by playing a top 10 team. I think that's something that has always helped our teams in the NCAA tournament. I like the fact we're going to play important games late in the season. That's how I want it to be." While they've had some trouble on the road, the Wildcats have been very tough at home of late. They've played three games here over the past month. All three resulted in victories, most recently a 60-56 win over a Marquette team which currently has a 21-7 record. Admittedly, the Hoyas have been on an impressive roll. The pointspreads have started to catch up with them a little though. They're 0-1-1 ATS their last two games. They've got a big game vs. Syracuse on deck, their regular season and home finale. I feel that they could get caught "patting themselves on the back" a little and/or looking ahead. Note that with the ATS loss vs. Rutgers, the Hoyas are now only 2-7 ATS (3-6 SU) their last nine games in the month of March. The Wildcats are 7-4 ATS as favorites, including a 1-0 ATS mark as a home favorite of three or fewer points. They've had some trouble with the Hoyas in recent seasons but I look for them to rise to the occasion with a very important victory this evening. 10* personal favorite |
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03-05-13 | Boise State v. UNLV -7.5 | Top | 64-68 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
I'm playing on UNLV. The Broncos have the better ATS record this season and they did beat the Rebels earlier. That doesn't mean that they're the better team though. Playing with revenge and now playing on their home floor, I expect the Rebels to settle the score tonight.
The Broncos are not in one of their better roles here. In fact, they're 0-4 ATS the last few seasons, when listed as road underdogs in the 6.5 to 9 range. During the same stretch, the Rebels were 3-1 ATS (4-0 SU) when listed as home favorites in the 6.5 to 9 range. Winning on the road has admittedly proven to be difficult for the Rebels. However, they've remained dominant here in Las Vegas, particularly on the defensive side of the ball, winning by an average score of 75.8 to 62. Visiting teams are hitting a mere 36.2% of their field goals here. Note that Broncos are just 8-11 ATS (6-13 SU) the past few seasons, when facing a team which allows 64 or fewer points, after a minimum of 15 games had been played. Last year, the Rebels were laying 13.5 points when they hosted the Broncos. They would go on to win by 17, a 75-58 blowout. Boise State would hit only 35.7% of its shots. Behind another strong defensive effort, I expect the revenge-minded Rebels to win by double-digits, once again. 10* top "revenge" report |
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03-05-13 | Boston Celtics v. Philadelphia 76ers +2 | Top | 109-101 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. The Celtics seem to be a popular pick in this one. I don't see it.
The "streaky" 76'ers have their "mojo" back. After winning three straight and four of five in early February, the 76'ers went into free-fall, getting killed (going winless) during the second half of the month. They began March with a win though, knocking off a solid Golden State squad. I backed them in that game. In part of my analysis I mentioned the following: " ... I expect the 76ers to come away with the win. Admittedly, the 76'ers have certainly struggled of late. However, lets not forget that their home record is still superior to the Warriors' road record. While the playoffs are looking less and less likely - the 76'ers are still in contention - they're six games behind 8th place Milwaukee. So, there's still plenty of incentive to play hard ..." As I acknowledged when they beat the Warriors, the playoffs aren't looking very likely. (Milwaukee's OT win last night made their job even harder.) However, as I also mentioned - the 76'ers aren't out of contention yet. They've had some success against the Celtics, a team I feel that they match up well against. I expect them to be both hungry and confident here, a dangerous combination. While they've had a few days off, the Celtics are still mired in a stretch where they play nine of 11 on the road. Lets not forget that this team is only 10-18 on the road, not nearly as good at Philadelphia's 17-15 home record. The Celts are 5-8 ATS the past few seasons as road favorites of three or fewer points. During that stretch, they're 7-12 ATS when playing a road game with an O/U line in the 180 to 184.5 range. The 76'ers are 4-1 SU/ATS the last five times that they were listed as home underdogs of three or fewer points, going 12-5 SU/ATS in that role the past few seasons. They're 7-1 ATS (6-2 SU) as a host in this series, including a 95-94 win earlier this season. I'll grab the points being offered but am expecting another "upset." 10* best bet |
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03-05-13 | Arkansas v. Missouri -10 | Top | 63-93 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
I'm playing on MISSOURI. Many of you will recall that I played against the Tigers a little over a week ago. They lost 90-83 at Kentucky. Now, they'll take on an Arkansas team which just defeated Kentucky. Some will have the following logic: "If Kentucky just beat Missouri and Arkansas just beat Kentucky, then surely Arkansas will be able to hang around against Missouri." That type of logic doesn't hold up in the world of handicapping though, as things are rarely that simple.
In this case, we have to remember the very important fact that the Razorbacks were at home when they beat Kentucky while the Tigers were on the road when they lost against them. This time, Missouri will have homecourt advantage. With Missouri boasting a perfect home record and Arkansas really struggling on the road, needless to say, this is an extremely significant fact. The Razorbacks are a dismal 4-24 on the road the past few seasons, going a money-burning 7-21 ATS. That includes a 1-3 ATS record, when they've been listed as road underdogs in the 9.5 to 12 range. This season, they're getting outscored by a 72.5 to 61.5 mark on the road. On the other hand, Missouri is outscoring teams by a 80.8 to 62.3 margin here at home. The Tigers hit 47.7% of their field goals here, visiting teams making only 37.5% of theirs. The Tigers, who lost a close one at Arkansas a few weeks ago, are 2-1 ATS (3-0 SU) the last three times that they attempted to avenge an earlier road loss. Playing their final home game of the season, I expect them to improve on those stats in convincing fashion. 10* personal favorite |
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03-04-13 | Charlotte Bobcats v. Portland Trail Blazers OVER 198 | Top | 105-122 | Win | 100 | 17 h 39 m | Show |
I'm playing on Charlotte and Portland to finish OVER the total. The Bobcats have been involved in a number of "unders" recently, including another last night. (That game still finished with 202 points, enough to finish above tonight's lower number.) Tonight, however , they're matched up against a Portland team which has been playing primarily "overs," of late. I'm expecting a high-scoring affair.
The Blazers, who have scored 109 points in each of their last two games and a minimum of 107 in three of their last four, have now seen 10 of their last 13 games finish above the number. That includes a 7-1 OVER mark their last eight against teams with a losing record. For the season, 60% of their home games have finished above the total, when the O/U line fell in the 195 to 199.5 range. While they've been an "under" team overall this season, the Bobcats have actually seen the OVER go 14-8 when matched up against a team with a sub-500 record. (Portland is 27-31.) Note that the Bobcats have also seen the OVER go 2-0 the last two times that they played the second of back-to-back games. Those games produced 212 and 206 combined points. Seven of their last 12, in that situation, have topped the total. This season's previous meeting produced 230 points. True, 26 of those points came in Overtime. However, there were still more than 200 (204) in regulation. I expect that to be the case again tonight. 10* blue chip |
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03-04-13 | Atlanta Hawks v. Denver Nuggets -9.5 | Top | 88-104 | Win | 100 | 16 h 6 m | Show |
I'm playing on DENVER. I really like how this one sets up for the home team. The Hawks are in a very difficult scheduling spot and the Nuggets, who are a commanding 25-3 here at Denver, should be poised to take advantage.
Last time out, the Nuggets beat Oklahoma City - one of the best teams in the league. That was their fourth straight win. The Nuggets, who should be filled with confidence from that big win, have since had two day's off. They come in well-rested. Their previous home game resulted in a double-digit victory against a talented Laker team which has been starting to find its groove. Speaking of the Lakers, the Hawks just lost a 1-point heartbreaker at LA last night. Those are the type of losses that often can be difficult to recover from. Playing in the altitude against a dangerous opponent doesn't help. Not only are the Hawks playing the second of back-to-back games, they're also playing the final leg of a 6-game road trip. This will be their 7th game in the last 11 days - every one of those games came in a different city - a journey that began in Atlanta and has seen the Hawks travel all over the country. Fatigue may well be a factor - and the Nuggets should look to push the pace every chance they get. That's one of the reasons why we've got such a high O/U line here; as I write this the number is sitting at 211 with some shops still at 211.5. That's noteworthy as the Nuggets tend to excel in games that are expected to be high-scoring, like this one. In fact, they're 38-20-2 ATS (46-14 SU) the past 60 times that they played a game which had an O/U line of 2010 or greater, including a lucrative 11-1 ATS (12-0 SU) mark their last 12 in that situation. When playing here at Denver, they're a perfect 7-0 SU/ATS when the O/U line was at least 210. Given the fact that the Hawks beat them earlier at Atlanta, the Nuggets should be fully focused on exacting some revenge. I expect them to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way, en route to a double-digit win. 10* personal favorite |
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03-03-13 | Dallas Mavericks v. Houston Rockets -5 | Top | 103-136 | Win | 100 | 15 h 18 m | Show |
I'm playing on HOUSTON. The Mavericks have taken the first two games of the season series. However, the Rockets still have the superior record overall. I expect them to be highly motivated this evening and for them to get a small measure of revenge.
Both teams like to push the pace and both are very capable offensively. I expect that tempo to work in the Rockets' favor. Note that Houston is 5-2 ATS its last seven against team which score 99 or more points per game. During that time, Dallas is only 2-3 ATS (1-4 SU) against teams which average 99 or more points per game. This is a very big game for Dallas as the Mavs are trying to catch the Rockets in the standings. However, I would argue that its every bit as big for Houston. Note that these teams will face each other again in a few days, at Dallas. Obviously, the Rockets are well aware of this fact. Knowing that will likely be a harder game to win, they should be doing everything possible to defend their home floor this evening. The Rockets are 19-9 at home. The Mavs are 10-20 on the road. The Rockets are outscoring teams by a 110.6 to 104.3 margin at home. The Mavs are getting outscored by a 103.6 to 97.9 average on the road. Ultimately, I expect homecourt to be the difference as the Rockets bring their "A Game" and improve to 16-12 ATS when in the "revenge" role. 10* personal favorite |
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03-03-13 | DePaul v. South Florida -3 | Top | 73-83 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
I'm playing on SOUTH FLORIDA. Admittedly, its been an extended tough stretch for the Bulls. They're taking a major step down in class here though and I feel that they're favored for good reason.
They've come close a number of times but the Bulls haven't actually won a game since way back on 1/19, when they defeated Georgetown. With games vs. UConn and at Cincinnati on deck, the Bulls know that this is by far their best chance to reward the home faithful with a victory. I expect an extremely motivated effort. The Blue Demons have struggled every bit as much as the Bulls, arguably even more so They defeated Rutgers (not as impressive as beating GTown) a couple of weeks ago but have lost every game since by double-digits. They're 1-12 their last 13 games. Note that every one of those dozen losses came by four or more points. Keep in mind that the Bulls are 8-8 at home while the Blue Demons are 4-8 on the road. While the Blue Demons are permitting 79.2 ppg on the road, the Bulls allow only 62.7 here at Tampa. The Bulls are a team that takes care of business when they get the chance. In fact, they're 13-0 SU (7-2 ATS in lined games) the past few seasons, when taking on a team with a losing record. On the other hand, during the same stretch, Depaul is only 14-12 (7-12 ATS in lined games!) when taking on a team with a losing record. A closer look reveals that those victories came early in the season, vs. complete cupcakes. When matched up against a team with a losing record, after at last 15 games have been played, the Demons are 0-7 SU and 0-6 ATS. Note that the Depaul is also an ugly 2-19 over that period, when facing a team which allows 64 or fewer points per game, after a minimum of 15 games had been played. Given the above stats, its not surprising to learn that USF has dominated this series in recent years. That includes a 16-point win (at Depual) in last season's lone meeting. I expect another convincing victory for the Bulls here. 10* personal favorite |
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03-02-13 | Golden State Warriors v. Philadelphia 76ers -1 | Top | 97-104 | Win | 100 | 17 h 31 m | Show |
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. My "Personal Favorite" selections are generally reserved for "favorites." However, I'll occasionally use them for a "pick'em" game or on a very slight underdog,
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03-02-13 | Kansas State v. Baylor -2.5 | Top | 64-61 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 30 m | Show |
I'm playing on BAYLOR. The Wildcats come in with the higher ranking and better overall record. However, I believe that the Bears are favored for good reason.
A closer look reveals that Baylor's home record is superior to Kansas State's road record. Despite having a winning SU record away from home, the Wildcats are actually getting outscored by a 64.7 to 64.1 margin in their road games. (They're just 3-5 ATS on the road.) On the other hand, Baylor is outscoring teams by a dominating 77.3 to margin in its home games. True, the Wildcats hammered them a couple of weeks ago. However, that was at Manhattan. As seen above, the Bears are a much better team at home. Needless to say, they'll have payback on their minds here. While the Cats already know they're destined to be "dancing," the Bears are still trying to ensure that they get there. Wednesday's win at West Virginia got them back on track and boosted their hopes. It also should give them momentum and confidence for today's important tilt. Ultimately, I expect homecourt to prove the difference, as the Bears pull away for the win, covering the small number along the way. 10* personal favorite |
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03-02-13 | St. Louis v. George Washington +6.5 | Top | 66-58 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 48 m | Show |
I'm playing on GEORGE WASHINGTON. The Billikens are a very solid team. I believe that their high ranking is justified and they've been good to me this season. However, I believe that they're a little over-valued here. I also believe that they may well be ripe for a letdown and that they may get caught looking past this afternoon's opponent. Meanwhile, I feel the opposite about the Colonials. I believe that that they'll be extremely motivated and that they're a bit under-valued.
True, the Billikens are still trying to wrap up first place in the conference. This game is arguably even bigger for the Colonials though - as they're desperately just trying to qualify for the tournament. (They enter today's action in a four-way tie for ninth place in the A-10- one game ahead of 13th-place Dayton. Only the top 12 teams in the league qualify for the tourney.) I say that the Billikens could get caught looking past the Colonials as they've been playing bigger name teams recently, have successfully won a game since entering the Top 25 and have teams like Xavier on deck. While they've had trouble on the road, the Colonials won their last home game by eight points. Their only other conference home game in February resulted in a 3-point loss vs. Butler, a game they were getting 2.5 points for. Here, despite the fact that St. Louis and Butler have similar rankings, we're getting a handful of extra points to work with. Any loss they've had here in 2013 has come by single-digits and only one came by more than three points. In fact, no team has beaten them by more than single-digits here all season. The Colonials are outscoring teams by an average score of 69.3 to 61.5 margin here - which is actually better than the 66.1 to 61.4 margin that the Billikens have averaged away from St. Louis. The Colonials have hosted the Billikens four times since 1997. They won all four of those games, covering three of them. I expect to see a highly determined Colonials team today and look for them to step up with AT LEAST another cover. 10* best bet |
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03-01-13 | Atlanta Hawks v. Phoenix Suns +4.5 | Top | 87-92 | Win | 100 | 14 h 6 m | Show |
I'm playing on PHOENIX. I believe we're getting excellent value with the home team here.
The Suns are quietly starting to play well. After eking out a 1-point win over the T-Wolves on 2/26, they followed it up with an outright (comeback) win at San Antonio. Needless to say, that's not an easy thing to do - for any team. (The Spurs had won 18 straight at home.) I expect their confidence to be sky high here. Note that the Suns don't play again until 3/6 after this. So, there's nothing to "look ahead" to and no reason to try and "save themselves." Off the win vs. the Spurs, Jermaine O'Neal, who had a "double-double" (22/13) in that game had this to say: "For us, we're obviously not in the playoff run, but it's about trying to be a better team. Games like these are what build character and put us in the right direction. That's what we're trying to do." Admittedly, the Hawks have been playing very well on their current road trip. In fact, they're 3-0 through the first three games on the trip and are now 4-0 SU/ATS their last four overall. That said, I feel that they may be ripe for a letdown. They jut scored an upset at Utah last time out and they face the Lakers, followed by Denver, in their next two games. Off that big win and with the two "bigger name" opponents on deck, I feel that it will be easy to overlook the lowly Suns. Note that the Hawks are only 2-5 ATS off an upset win. The Suns played the Hawks very tough last season, including an outright win at Atlanta. Last year's game here at Phoenix was decided by only two points, the Hawks rallying for a 101-99 comeback victory. I expect the Suns to give them all they can handle once again, en route to AT LEAST a cover. 10* best bet |
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03-01-13 | Sacramento Kings v. San Antonio Spurs UNDER 212 | Top | 102-130 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 34 m | Show |
I'm playing on Sacramento and San Antonio to finish UNDER the total. Admittedly, the Kings have not played very good defense of late. Nobody will be confusing them with the Memphis Grizzlies or Indiana Pacers (the league's two top defensive teams) anytime soon. That said, this is an extremely high number, giving us much room to work with. I feel that it will prove to be too high.
With such a high O/U line, note that the Spurs have seen the UNDER go 12-7 the last 19 times that they played a home game with an O/U line of 210 or greater, 8-4 the past few seasons. The Spurs were upset last time out, losing 105-101 vs. the Suns. It marked just the fourth time in February that they allowed an opponent to reach triple-digits in scoring and the third time that an opponent hit 105 or more against them. After each of the previous times that they allowed 100 or more points in February, the Spurs responded with a dominant defensive effort. After allowing 119 at Detroit on 2/8, the Spurs limited Brooklyn to 86 points in their next game. After giving up 102 vs. these same Kings at Sacramento, the Spurs responded by holding the Clippers to only 90 points, on 42% shooting. Then, after giving up 107 at Golden State, the Spurs responded by holding the Suns to only 87 points and 37% from the field. I expect them to be motivated to improve defensively here. Even though their last game finished above the total, the Spurs have still seen the UNDER go 16-9 here this season. Games here have produced an average of 197.2 points. That's considerably lower than their road average. That's due to the fact that the Spurs have scored roughly the same number of points on the road as they do at home, while allowing significantly less on the defensive end, in their home games. A closer look shows that the UNDER is 7-1 when the Spurs have been home favorites of greater than a dozen points. The Kings allow roughly the same number of points on the road as they do at home. However, they score significantly less on the road. Overall, their road games are averaging 199.5 points. Both meetings this season (both at Sacramento) produced 210 or fewer points and they averaged less than 200. All things considered, I feel that the number is a little high and I look for the UNDER to improve to 7-3 when the Spurs were off an upset loss. *10 blue chip |
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02-28-13 | Gonzaga v. Brigham Young +6.5 | Top | 70-65 | Win | 100 | 18 h 34 m | Show |
I'm playing on BYU. Last night, I backed the USC Trojans in their game against highly ranked Arizona. The Trojans had been embarrassed by the Wildcats when the teams met earlier and I expected them to respond with their best effort. The Cougars are in a similar spot here. This time, they're the team hosting a highly ranked opponent, one which embarrassed them last time out. While they may not be able to pull off a double-digit win, as USC did, I expect them to also respond with their very best effort - and for that to lead to AT LEAST a cover.
Without question, the Bulldogs are a very good team. Currently, they've got their highest ranking in school history and are riding a 10-game winning streak. That said, I feel that they're a bit over-valued at the moment - and that BYU is also a better team than many realize. Keep in mind that the Cougars are 13-2 at home and that they've outscored opponents by an average score of 81.3 to 65.7 here. The Cougars have made better than 48% of their field goals here while visiting teams have hit less than 40% of theirs. Tyler Haws, the WCC scoring leader, is particularly dominant here at Provo. He averages better than 22 points on this floor, making greater than 49% of his shots. While the Bulldogs would love to finish undefeated in conference play, they've already clinched at least a tie for first - and even if they lose here, they'll still win the conference by knocking off Portland, a home game that they'll be heavily favored for. The Bulldogs can say all the right things about remaining hungry and focused and wanting more. However, that can be easier said than done for a team that's constantly hearing how good it is. Also, while the Gonzaga oaching staff would never admit it - after all their blowout wins - being involved in a "close game" would probably actually benefit this team. The Cougars knocked off the Bulldogs by a score of 83-73 when the teams met here last season. Including that victory, they're 9-2 ATS (11-0 SU) the last 11 times that they played a home game where the O/U line ranged from 145 to 149.5. Going back further finds them at 17-7 ATS (24-0 SU!) their last 24 in that situation. Don't be surprised by another upset tonight. 10* best bet |
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02-28-13 | Minnesota Timberwolves v. Los Angeles Lakers -10 | Top | 94-116 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
I'm playing on the LA LAKERS. Everyone's pretty down on the Lakers these days. This is still a very talented team though, one which is more than capable of blowing out the league's weaker teams.
Tonight, they'll face a banged-up Minnesota squad which has dropped three straight and which is only 3-14 its last 17. The Lakers, who were blown out at Denver last time out, are 7-5 ATS the last dozen times that that were off a double-digt loss. They're also 2-1 ATS (3-0 SU) the last three times that they were listed as home favorites in the 9.5 to 12 range. The Lakers already beat the T-Wolves by double-digits to begin the month, a 111-100 win at Minnesota on 2/1. That continued a long-standing streak of dominance in the series. I expect them to close out the month with another double-digt win. *10 personal favorite |
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02-28-13 | Rider v. Niagara -8.5 | Top | 68-59 | Loss | -106 | 14 h 3 m | Show |
I'm playing on NIAGARA. While the Broncs have had a solid season, I expect them to be in over their heads here.
These teams faced each other a couple of weeks ago, at Rider. The Broncs caught a break as they faced the Purple Eagles without Antoine Mason, arguably their best player. The game was close but Rider hung on for a 72-69 victory. That was in the middle of a 4-game stretch which saw Niagara go 0-4 ATS and 1-3 SU though. That stretch notwithstanding, the Purple Eagles may well be the best team in this conference. They've got Mason back and they're peaking at the right time. Three games ago, while it didn't result in a cover, the Purple Eagles got back on track by winning at Marist. They followed that up with a victory at Manhattan. That may not sound like much but it was a big win. Not only are the Jaspers a little better believe (at least in my opinion) but the win snapped Niagara's ATS skid. Last time out, the Eagles returned home to face Northwestern State, a team with 19 wins on the season and which was outscoring teams by an average of more than 10 points per outing. In fact, NW State entered that game as the highest scoring team in the country. Things were close at halftime, as Niagara was up by a score of 31-30. However, the Purple Eagles flexed their collective muscles in the second half, scoring a whopping 61 points, en route to a 92-76 blowout win. Mason returned and promptly contributed 20 points. Off that explosion, knowing the conference regular season title is within their grasp and with Mason now having a game under his belt, I expect the revenge-minded Purple Eagles to carry the momentum into tonight's contest. They're 5-1 the last six times that they attempted to avenge an earlier road loss and I expect them to improve on those stats in convincing fashion tonight. 10* |
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02-27-13 | Arizona v. USC +7 | Top | 78-89 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
I'm playing on USC. The Trojans are another team which has treated me pretty well this season. I wasn't involved in their most recent game (blowout loss vs. UCLA) but feel that they're offering us very fair value this evening.
While they admittedly didn't fare too well against the revenge-minded Bruins, the Trojans have generally been very competitive, since the coaching change a few weeks ago. They're now 3-1-2 ATS and 4-2 SU their last six games. Only the UCLA game resulted in a loss of greater than eight points. This time, its the Trojans who come in looking for some payback. They were beaten soundly at Arizona back on 1/26. As noted, however, the team is playing improved basketball since that time. Note that USC is 2-1 ATS the last three times that it attempted to avenge a loss of 20 or more points. Arizona coach Sean Miller acknowledged that he's likely to see an improved USC team here. He was quoted saying the following: "We know that when we played USC we probably had them at an ideal time. They're really playing much better." Overall, including the loss at Arizona, the Trojans are a respectable 7-5-2 ATS in Pac-12 play. That's actually a far better ATS record than what the Wildcats bring to the table. In fact, Arizona is an ugly 5-10 ATS in conference play. The Wildcats are off back to back big wins over Washington and Washington State. However, both those games came at home. In their last road game, they won by only four against a fairly weak Utah team. Their previous road game resulted in a double-digit loss at Colorado. A closer look at Arizona's last win shows that the Wildcats actually allowed Washington State to hit 45% of its shots. The final score would have been far closer if the Cougars didn't miss a whopping 14 free throws. Miller said this of his squad: "Our team is having a hard time playing very, very hard for 40 minutes. The one thing that I know is we're not the most talented, prolific offensive team, so when we don't play over the top hard and together, it really shows up." Off their two blowout wins and with a big game against UCLA, a team which upset them at Arizona a few weeks ago, I feel that the Wildcats could easily get caught looking ahead here and/or patting themselves on the back and that they may not be able to play "over the top." Note that they're 4-6 ATS off a conference win. (They also have a date with instate rival Arizona State following the UCLA game.) The Trojans were embarrassed in the loss at Arizona and they were also embarrassed with their performance on Sunday afternoon. I expect them to bounce back with a highly motivated effort and for that to lead to AT LEAST a cover. 10* best bet |
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02-27-13 | Mississippi State v. Kentucky -18.5 | Top | 55-85 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
I'm playing on KENTUCKY. I've done very well in picking my spots to play on/against the Wildcats this season. Recently after going against them in their blowout loss at Florida, I came back and played on the Cats in their victory over Missouri. Off that important victory, now armed with the knowledge that they can indeed win without Noel and stepping down significantly in class, I feel that this will be another good spot to play ON Kentucky.
While Saturday's win certainly helped, the well-coached Cats know they absolutely can't afford to squander games against beatable teams. They also know that "blowing them out" would be helpful. The Bulldogs should provide them with the opportunity to do just that. Mississippi State is the worst team in the conference. The Bulldogs have dropped 12 straight games. They've only covered the spread in three of those, going 3-9 ATS. Last time out, despite playing at home, they were destroyed 72-31 vs. Vanderbilt, a team Kentucky defeated a couple of games back. Three of the Bulldogs last five defeats have come by a minimum of 25 points. While the Cats are dealing with the loss of Noel, admittedly a blow, the Bulldogs have much bigger issues. Miss. State coach Rick Ray had this to say: "There |
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02-26-13 | Minnesota Timberwolves v. Phoenix Suns -113 | Top | 83-84 | Win | 100 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
I'm playing on PHOENIX. The T-Wolves eked out a 111-107 win when these teams met at Minnesota back in late December. With tonight's rematch being played at Phoenix, I expect the Suns to return the favor.
While they lost 127-124 against the T-Wolves here last March, the Suns are still 5-1 the last six times that they were a host in the series. The Suns 12-15 home record admittedly isn't too good. However, its much better than Minnesota's 7-19 mark on the road. Note that Minnesota's road record includes a 5-8 ATS (4-9 SU) record as a road underdog of three or fewer points. The Suns are 9-5-1 ATS the last 15 times that they were off three or more consecutive losses. They're also 8-3 SU/ATS the last few seasons, when playing a home game with an O/U line in the 190 to 194.5 range. The Suns are also an impressive 21-9 SU/ATS the last 30 times that they faced a team with a losing record during the second half of the season. I feel that this is a favorable matchup for them and I expect another win and cover. *10 NBA personal favorite |
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02-26-13 | Wake Forest v. Florida State -5 | Top | 62-76 | Win | 100 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
I'm playing on FLORIDA STATE. Its true that the Demon Deacons have been much better at the betting window than the Seminoles this season. Its also true that they hammered the Noles when the teams met at Wake Forest. However, that doesn't mean that they're the more talented team. Indeed, the Noles still have the better SU record. With tonight's rematch being played at Tallahassee, I expect the revenge-minded Seminoles to get some payback.
Off their biggest win of the season, I believe that Deacons are ripe for a letdown here. Note that they're only 1-8 SU (3-5 ATS) the last few seasons, when off a conference win. Lets keep in mind that the Deacons are 0-7 on the road, in ACC play. Five of those losses came by double-digits. On the season, they're only 2-10 in road/neutral games and those two wins came at UNC-Greensboro and a 3-point win in a neutral court game against Mercer. While the Noles haven't exactly been dominant at home, they did win their last game here. These teams met at Wake Forest only three weeks ago. The Noles were actually 2.5 point favorites in that game. Normally, that would mean that they'd be laying a larger number than they currently are for a home game. Needless to say, FSU hasn't forgotten that it lost that game by 25 points, arguably the low point of the season. Last month's loss notwithstanding, note that FSU has enjoyed recent success in this series. The Noles are 8-6 ATS the past couple of seasons, when playing with one or less day's rest in between games, including a 1-0 SU/ATS mark in that situation this season. The only time that they were in that situation this season resulted in a 7-point win in a neutral court game vs. St Joseph's. The Noles are also 2-0-1 ATS the last three times that they attempted to avenge a blowout road loss of 20 or more points. I feel that this number could easily be higher and I'm expecting a solid win and cover for the home team. *10 personal favorite |
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02-25-13 | Villanova v. Seton Hall +4.5 | Top | 65-66 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
I'm playing on SETON HALL. The Wildcats have obviously had a much better season than the Pirates. However, in a potential let-down spot, I'm not sure that they're ready to be laying this many points on the road against what I expect to be a very hungry Pirates squad.
Even with Saturday's (4-point) win and a 4-3 ATS mark this month, the Wildcats are still a money-burning 5-16 ATS in February the past few seasons. One of those ATS losses came here at Seton Hall last season. In a game that was close the entire way (tied at half) Villanova eked out a 3-point win, which wasn't quite enough to earn the cover. Including that ATS loss here last season, the Wildcats are only 5-8 ATS the last 13 times that they were road favorites in the 3.5 to 6 range, an 0-3 ATS (1-2 SU) mark their last three in that role. Off the big win vs Marquette and with their next game coming at Pittsburgh - against a Panthers team which blew them out earlier - I feel it may be tough to fully focus on the task at hand. Off Saturday's strong defensive performance, note that Villanova is also only 8-14 ATS its last 22 after allowing 60 or fewer points its previous game and 4-10 ATS its last 14 with one or less day's rest in between games. During that stretch, the Pirates were 9-5 ATS with one or less day's worth of rest in between games. With Saturday's cover at Louisville, they're also 10-5 ATS the past 15 times that they were on a losing streak of three or more games, as they are here. Desperate to snap their skid and to earn a "quality" conference win, I expect the Pirates to rise to the occasion with AT LEAST a cover. *10 best bet |
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02-25-13 | Washington Wizards v. Toronto Raptors UNDER 190.5 | Top | 90-84 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
I'm playing on Toronto and Washington to finish UNDER the total. These teams recently faced each other at Washington. The Raptors won that 2/19 game by a score of 96-88, the final score staying beneath the posted total. With the venue switching to Toronto for this evening's rematch, I'm expecting another relatively low-scoring affair.
The Wizards have been a much improved team for quite a few weeks now. Much of the credit has gone to John Wall, as they're been a different team since he returned from injury. However, what many haven't realized is that the entire team has improved defensively. True, the Wizards are off back-to-back high-scoring games. However, those contests came against the likes of the Nuggets and the Rockets, a pair of very high-scoring teams which don't always care too much about defense. Its also worth noting that both games came at Washington. Now, not only are the Wizards facing a less explosive team (than either Denver or Houston) but they're also now playing on the road. That's noteworthy as Washington is averaging a mere 86.8 points per game on the road this season, hitting only 41.4% of its field goals. Throw in the fact that the Wizards are one of a small handful of teams which allows less points on the road (95.2) than they do at home and one can begin to understand why the UNDER is a highly profitable 20-6 in Wizard road games this season. That includes a 5-0 UNDER mark when the Wizards have been listed as road underdogs in the 3.5 to 6 range, a role they currently fall into. While they did score a lot of points last time out, note that the UNDER is 7-2 when the Wizards were off a game in which they scored 105 or more points. The Raptors also know a thing or two about playing low-scoring games. The UNDER is 17-12 in their games here at Toronto, which have been lower-scoring than their road games. That includes a 5-2 UNDER mark when they were listed as home favorites in the 3.5 to 6 range. Going back further finds the UNDER at 13-7 the last 20 times that they were in that role. Including last April's game here, which managed to stay below the total, the UNDER is 25-9 the last 34 times that the Raptors played a team with a losing record, during the second half of the season. I'm expecting more of the same here. *10 best bet |
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02-24-13 | Chicago Bulls v. Oklahoma City Thunder UNDER 196 | Top | 72-102 | Win | 100 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
I'm playing on Chicago and OKC to finish UNDER the total. The Thunder are off a very high-scoring game vs. Minnesota, their fourth consecutive game that topped the total. Facing a stingy Chicago team, I expect that streak to come to an end this evening.
The Bulls have quietly been playing outstanding defense of late. Last time out, they allowed just 75 points. That marked the fourth consecutive game that they allowed 87 or fewer points. Those four games had combined scores of 140, 183, 153 and 180. Prior to that, their previous two games had scores of 192 and 182. For the season, their games are averaging just 184 points. While the Thunder can score points with the best of them, they are also better defensively than many tend to give them credit for. They're holding teams to 42.9% shooting here at OKC. A look at the earlier meeting, which was played at Chicago, shows that the final score was 97-91, in favor of the Thunder. That game had an O/U line of 190. We're getting several more points to work with here, providing us with some added line value. The fact that the Thunder won the first game is noteworthy, as the UNDER is 47-25 the past couple of seasons, when the Bulls attempted to avenge an earlier loss. During that time, the UNDER is also 33-16 when the Bulls have been listed as underdogs, including 7-2 when road dogs in the 6.5 to 9 range. Last season's game here had an O/U line in the 190s and finished with only 170 combined points. I feel this one will ultimately also prove lower-scoring than most will be expecting. *10 main event |
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02-24-13 | Michigan State v. Ohio State -3 | Top | 60-68 | Win | 100 | 7 h 60 m | Show |
I'm playing on OHIO STATE. The Spartans won a close when these teams met at Michigan State. Playing at home, I expect the Buckeyes to deliver some payback.
The Spartans have been "respectable" on the road. They're outscoring teams by a 66.2 to 64.4 margin away from home. However, the Buckeyes have been dominant here. They're outscoring opposing teams by a 74.3 to 55.4 count here at Columbus. While the Spartans are off a loss, the Buckeyes are off a big win. Note that MSU is a surprisingly poor 6-10-1 ATS (11-6 SU) the last 17 times it was off a loss in conference play. The Buckeyes are 30-12 SU off a conference win, during the same period. Coach Izzo knows the Buckeyes are going to be tough to beat, noting that they're even stronger now than the team they beat a few weeks ago. ''They're a better team I think, in some ways, and they're a different team in other ways. They've still got one of the best defensive guards in the country (Aaron Craft) and they still have (Deshaun) Thomas, who is capable of getting 30 any night you play him.'' Ultimately, I expect homecourt to be the difference as the revenge-minded Buckeyes pull away with a very important win and cover. 10* annihilator |
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02-23-13 | Missouri v. Kentucky -1.5 | Top | 83-90 | Win | 100 | 24 h 5 m | Show |
I'm playing on KENTUCKY. I've had a pretty good read on the Wildcats this season, successfully picking my spots to play both on and against. Most recently, I played against them when they were blown out a Florida. I feel that this will be an excellent spot to go the other way and to come back with a play ON the Cats.
As you probably know, Kentucky lost Nerlens Noel a few games back. That was certainly a big blow to the team and they haven't covered the spread since he went down. Those recent ATS losses combined with Noel's injury have many jumping off the Kentucky bandwagon. In turn, that has helped provide us with a very low line. That line is low enough that a SU win should also result in a cover. I feel that's providing us with plenty of value. True, the Cats aren't what they were last season. And, I've already acknowledged that Noel's injury was costly. However, this is still Kentucky - an extremely well-coached team which is always loaded with talent. The Cats got back on track last time out, winning by four against Vanderbilt. That wasn't enough for a cover but it does give them positive momentum. Note that KU, which has now failed to cover in four straight, is now 16-3 SU the last 19 times that it was off three or more consecutive non-covers. Lets not forget that Kentucky is 46-2 its last 48 home games. The Cats are also an outstanding 9-2 SU/ATS the last 11 times that they were listed as home favorites of three or fewer points. The Tigers certainly aren't slouches and they even beat Florida last time out. (That could easily have them ripe for a letdown.) However, they also aren't nearly as good away from home. While they've been unbeatable at Missouri, they're only 2-5 in true road games, 1-5 SU/ATS their last six. Many will look at this game and use the following logic: Missouri just beat Florida while Florida just killed Kentucky. Therefore, Missouri will beat Kentucky. That type of thinking is flawed though. Expect homecourt to be the difference and for the Cats to come away with an important win and cover. *10 Personal Favorite |
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02-23-13 | Atlanta Hawks v. Milwaukee Bucks -4 | Top | 103-102 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 57 m | Show |
I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. The Bucks have struggled a bit lately. With the venue and schedule in their favor, I expect them to bounce back with a big win and cover this evening.
While the Bucks had the last two night offs, the Hawks were busy disposing of Sacramento yesterday. They'll be playing their third game in the past four days here. While they won big last night, note that the Hawks are only 4-7 ATS off a double-digit victory, 21-30 ATS the last couple of seasons. During that stretch, they're also a money- burning 7-13 ATS (5-15 SU) when listed as a road underdog in the 3.5 to 6 range. The Bucks, 6-4 SU/ATS the last 10 times that they were off an "upset" loss, beat the Hawks by seven the last time that they were a host in this series. While they didn't get Josh Smith, as they thought they might have, the Bucks did add a dangerous 3-point shooting threat in J.J. Redick, who should make his debut tonight. I expect the Bucks to be the hungrier team and for them to also have the fresher legs. Ultimately, I expect that to lead them to a win and cover. *10 main event |
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02-23-13 | Kansas State v. Texas +3 | Top | 81-69 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 12 m | Show |
I'm playing on TEXAS. The Wildcats come in with the better ranking and the higher ranking. Not surprisingly, they're favored. However, I'm expecting a win for the Longhorns.
The Wildcats crushed Texas when these teams met at K-State. That's not all that surprising, given that the young Longhorns have really struggled on the road, while the Cats have been very tough at home. The Longhorns have gradually been "growing up" though and they're a much better team here at home. Coming off their first true road win of the season and with payback on their minds, I'm expecting their very best effort. Keep in mind that the Longhorns 10-3 home record is actually superior to K-State's 7-4 away/neutral court record. In their most recent home game, the Longhorns defeated a solid Iowa State team. In their most recent road game, the Cats were blown out by double-digits. In conference play, the Cats are 4-2 on the road. However, a closer look shows that two of those wins came by two points or less. The only Big 12 teams that they beat by more than two points on the road were Texas Tech and TCU, the two worst teams in the conference. In non-conf. action, the Cats only played one true road game - they won by three as a 7-point favorite, at George Washington. So, they're only 2-5 ATS in true road games. Going back a few years and we find that the Cats are only 4-15 ATS (5-14 SU!) the last 19 times that they were listed as road favorites of three or less, going 0-4 ATS (1-3 SU) their last four in that role. Meanwhile, the Longhorns are 6-3 ATS the last nine times that they were listed as home underdogs of three or less. Also 3-1 ATS the last four times that they attempted to avenge an earlier loss, I expect AT LEAST another cover here. *10 Big 12 GOY |
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02-20-13 | Boston Celtics v. Los Angeles Lakers -7 | Top | 99-113 | Win | 100 | 18 h 14 m | Show |
I'm playing on LA. I believe that the All Star Break will have benefitted the Lakers more than Boston. The Celtics entered the break on a roll. The Lakers, on the other hand, were off a blowout loss vs. the Clippers, the third time in their last five games that they lost by double-digits.
The first of those double-digit losses came at Boston, vs. these very same Celtics. I expect a much different result here at LA. Lets keep in mind that the Celtics are only 8-16 away from Boston. (The Lakers are 16-11 when listed as the home team.) The Celts are only only 5-10 ATS (4-11 SU) the last 15 times that they were listed as road underdogs in the 6.5 to 9 range. In addition to needing all the wins that they can get, the Lakers, who are currently 10th in the West, should have some added motivation to avenge the recent loss at Boston. Additionally, I believe that they'll want to give their best effort in honor of Jerry Buss, the team owner who recently died. Kobe had this to say about the Lakers' beloved former owner. "Think about the impact that he's had on the game and the decisions he's made, and the brand of basketball he brought here with Showtime and the impact that had on the sport as a whole. Those vibrations were felt to a kid all the way in Italy who was 6 years old, before basketball was even global. His impact is felt worldwide." Don't count out the Lakers yet. I'm expecting a double-digit win. 10* main event |
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02-20-13 | Colorado St v. UNLV -3 | Top | 59-61 | Loss | -106 | 26 h 37 m | Show |
I'm playing on UNLV. I won with the Rams when these teams faced each other at Colorado State. However, with this game being played at UNLV, I expect the Rebels to have their revenge.
True, the Rebels don't have a very good mark at the betting window. They do still have a very solid SU record though - and tonight's line is low enough that a SU win will likely also result in a cover. While I respect the Rams, they're definitely not unbeatable. Lets not forget that the Rebels are 13-1 at home while the Rams are 5-4 on the road. In their last two games here, the Rebels beat the likes of San Diego State and New Mexico, both very strong teams. They certainly won't be intimidated. Including last season's 82-63 destruction, the Rebels are 10-1 SU and 9-2 ATS the last 11 times that they were a host in this series. With payback on their minds, I expect them to continue that dominance this evening. *10 personal favorite |
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02-19-13 | Wyoming v. San Diego St -11.5 | Top | 51-79 | Win | 100 | 15 h 12 m | Show |
I'm playing on SAN DIEGO STATE. The Cowboys beat up on the Aztecs when these teams met at Wyoming. Tonight, I expect the Aztecs to settle the score.
Even including last month's loss, the Aztecs are still 5-1 SU/ATS the last six meetings in this series. The Aztecs are also 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS the last five times that they were a host in the series. The five wins came by an average of greater than 23 points. Even the lone "non-cover" still a margin of 11 points. Last month's game notwithstanding, the Aztecs tend to take care of "good' teams, a category which Wyoming falls into. In fact, San Diego State is an impressive 43-17 its last 60 against teams with a winning record. One might think that a "good" team like Wyoming would fare well, when getting so many points. That's not the case for the Cowboys though, a team typically not as good away from its home. In fact, the Cowboys are an ugly 5-13 ATS (2-16 SU) the last 18 times that they were listed as road underdogs in the 9.5 to 12 range, going 0-4 SU/ATS their last four in that role. While the Aztecs have dealt with their share of injuries this season, note that Wyoming's Leonard Washington - a senior fwd who leads the team in both points and rebounds - is listed as doubtful. Judging by his coach's comments, his chances don't seem very good: "He's doubtful right now, unless there's a miraculous improvement. We don't want to put him in harm's way." Any chance that the Cowboys had of the Aztecs taking them lightly was likely eliminated due to the fact that San Diego State comes in off back-to-back losses. The only previous time that the Aztecs lost two in a row this season, they responded with a 21-point win, covering as four point favorites. I'm expecting a blowout. *10 Blowout GOM |
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02-19-13 | Milwaukee Bucks v. Brooklyn Nets OVER 194 | Top | 111-113 | Win | 100 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
I'm playing on Milwaukee and Brooklyn to finish OVER the total. These teams played a relatively low-scoring game against each other here back in early December. The Bucks won 97-88. They met a few weeks later and combined for 201. I won't be surprised to see them top the 200 mark again this evening.
The Bucks aren't very good defensively. They've allowed four of their last five opponents to reach triple-digits in scoring, all five of those opponents shooting at least 44% from the field. Going back further finds that Milwaukee has allowed a minimum of 90 points in 23 straight games, including all 22 in 2013. Note that the Bucks have seen the OVER go 15-8 against teams with a winning record and 2-0 when playing with three or more day's rest in between games. In fact, coincidentally, the last time that they played with at least three day's rest was for the games against Brooklyn, a 108-93 affair. Doing so earlier in the season resulted in a 108-90 loss vs Memphis. The Nets saw their last two home games, prior to the break, finish with 227 and 197 points. They score more points at home - and they also give up slightly more at home than they do on the road. They know they've going to have to put up some points to beat these Bucks and I'm expecting another relatively high-scoring affair. *10 best bet |
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02-18-13 | West Virginia v. Kansas State -10.5 | Top | 61-71 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 48 m | Show |
I'm playing on KANSAS STATE. I successfully played against these same Wildcats last Monday. That was at Kansas though, facing a team which has dominated them. Now, the Cats are back home, taking on a West Virginia team which they've already defeated. Big difference. I feel this a favorable matchup for them and I expect a convincing win.
I expect last Monday's blowout loss on National TV to provide some added motivation here. Coach Bruce Weber noted: "We won one, and now we move on in our little bracket to Monday night and get to play West Virginia at home, and see if we can do a little better than last Monday." With a 14-1 home record, the Wildcats are very tough to beat here. Last time out, they dismantled Baylor by a score of 81-61. Prior to that, their previous home games saw them beat Iowa State by nine and Texas by 26. On the other hand, the Mountaineers are only 5-9 away from home, 3-6 in true road games. Last time they played on the round, the Mountaineers lost by 20. Note that WVU has missed 31 of 83 free throw attempts its last three games. Coach Huggins sarcastically noted: "With some of these guys, if they make 1 of 2 you should probably be happy." Those free throw shooting woes already hurt the Mountaineers in the earlier loss vs. K-State. I feel that was their chance to salvage a split vs. the Cats and they blew it. I don't even expect them to have a chance in this one. The line may seem a little high. However, given the talent gap between these teams this season (and the venue) I feel the line could even be higher. Note that K-State is 16-9 ATS (22-3 SU) the last 25 times it was a home favorite in the 9.5 to 12 range. While the Mountaineers are 0-9 their last nine against ranked teams, the Wildcats have won 13 straight when hosting unranked teams. Determined to I expect them to improve on those stats with a double-digit win. *10 Main Event |
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02-17-13 | Appalachian State v. NC-Greensboro -4 | Top | 76-68 | Loss | -106 | 7 h 50 m | Show |
I'm playing on UNC GREENSBORO. Its been a tough stretch for the Spartans. This is a winnable game for them though. Playing with revenge from an earlier loss at Appalachian State, I expect a highly motivated effort to lead to a win and cover.
The Mountaineers are off a loss and are 4-6 their last 10. Two of those wins came in OT. A closer look shows they're 1-5 their last six road games, the lone win coming in OT. The Spartans were actually up by a score of 39-32 at halftime in last month's 13-point loss at Appalachian State. So, they know they can play with this team. Note that the Spartans beat the Mountaineers by 10 in last season's conference tournament, while also earning a win and cover in the regular season meeting here. (That was after having been blown out by 14 at Appalachian State earlier.) Speaking of last year, note that the Mountaineers lost a few key seniors from that team. While it hasn't worked out the way they hoped, the Spartans came into the season as a team expected to be on the rise. I feel this is a favorable matchup and I expect them to show us some of that pre season promise, en route to a win and cover. *10 personal favorite |
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02-16-13 | Oregon State v. Washington -4 | Top | 62-72 | Win | 100 | 15 h 15 m | Show |
I'm playing on WASHINGTON. The Huskies came up short against Oregon. Now more desperate than ever - and taking a step down in class - I expect them to respond with a much needed victory.
True, the Huskies have lost three straight. However, the losing skid shouldn't be cause to abandon ship. Two of those were on the road though and the home game was against a ranked opponent. The last time that the Huskies were off three straight losses, (actually they'd lost four straight) they won and covered vs. ASU. Prior to that, when the losing streak was at three, they eked out a cover vs. Arizona. Going back further finds Washington at a lucrative 28-15 ATS its last 43 lined games, when on a losing streak of three or more games. The Beavers have trouble away from home. Allowing opposing teams to shoot 46.8% from the field in their road games hasn't helped. Although they shouldn't need any added incentive, the fact that they already lost at Oregon State should provide the Huskies with even further motivation. This is a team that they've handled here, one they beat by 15 here last season (as a 4.5 pt favorite) and one I expect them to handle again tonight. *10 personal favorite |
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02-16-13 | Bowling Green v. Akron -12 | Top | 50-67 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
I'm playing on AKRON. I believe that there's a big gap between these teams. The Zips already have 20 wins on the season. That includes a perfect 11-0 record in conference play. Bowling Green, on the other hand, is only 5-6 in conference play, 10-14 overall.
This line could actually be even higher and is being kept reasonable by the fact that the Zips have failed to cover a few in a row while the Falcons have been gotten the cash a few times. Lets not forget that the Zips are outscoring teams by a 78-60 margin at home. One of the Zips' victories came at Bowling Green. Laying nine points, Akron won by 13. True, Bowling Green would love to avenge that loss. Considering that the Falcons are 5-7 ATS and 0-12 SU the last dozen times that they attempted to avenge an earlier home defeat, wanting to do something and actually doing it are two entirely different matters. An offensively challenged team, the Falcons strength is their defense. The problem is that the Zips are even better defensively than they are, plus the Zips can score points. The Zips also typically take care of defensive-minded teams. In fact, Akron is 10-2 SU/ATS the last 12 times that it faced an opponent which allows 64 or fewer points, after at least 15 games had been played. If you read today's Akron Beacon Journal Online, you'll find a story talking about how some students at Akron don't even know how well their team is doing. Alex Abreu, a junior from Puerto Rico, said this: "When I got here, I was amazed that a team that has gone to the final of the MAC seven years in a row cannot sell out [besides] the Kent State game. I was like, |
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02-15-13 | Georgetown v. Cincinnati -3 | Top | 62-55 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
I'm playing on CINCINNATI. Georgetown comes in with the better overall record. However, I believe that the Bearcats, who have won four straight in this series, are favored for good reason.
Off a couple of tough losses, the Bearcats responded with a blowout win over Villanova last time out. That 68-50 victory gives them both confidence and momentum. With back to back road games on deck, they know this is a game they need to take advantage of - a chance to knock off a ranked opponent. Admittedly, the Hoyas come in on a major roll. However, they're far from unbeatable on the road. They've already lost at South Florida and Marquette in conference play. A win at Notre Dame was pretty impressive. However, a closer look shows that the Hoyas' only other conference road wins came at Rutgers and St. John's. Note that the Hoya's non-conference slate didn't include a single true road game. (Playing neutral court games, they lost vs. Indiana while beating Texas and UCLA.) It should also be noted that Georgetown point guard Markel Starks has four turnovers in each of his last two games. That could present a bit of a problem against a Cincy pressure defense which had a big edge in the turnover battle against the Hoyas last season. Additionally, although both teams are excellent defensively, the fact that the Bearcats are the top rebounding team in the Big East may give them a few extra possessions here. With an O/U line currently in the 117 to 118 range, note that the Bearcats are 5-2 ATS (6-1 SU) the seven times that they played a game where the O/U line was less than 120. Playing at home, I expect the Bearcats to cool off their guests, covering the small number along the way. *10 Main Event |
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02-14-13 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Los Angeles Lakers +3 | Top | 125-101 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
I'm playing on the LA LAKERS. The Clippers come in as the favorites. With the schedule in their favor, I expect the Lakers to score the "upset" there though.
The Lakers didn't cover last time out. However, they did win by a score of 91-85, holding the Suns to 41.2% from the field. Note that the Lakers, who have quietly gone 8-3 (4-0 at home) their last 11 games, are 4-2 ATS after allowing 85 or fewer points in their previous game. While the Lakers had last night off, the Clippers were busy beating up on the Houston Rockets. Note that they're only 6-7 ATS when playing the second of back-to-back games. This is worse than a typical b2b situation though. The Clippers are also playing their third game in four days. Considering that the first two of those games came in the Eastern Time Zone (NY and Philly) thats quite a grueling stretch. The Clippers are already playing their 9th game through the first 14 days of February. The Lakers have played one less during that time. I believe it'll make a difference. While they shouldn't need any added incentive, the fact that the Lakers are playing with "double-revenge" should ensure we see an extremely motivated Laker team. I expect them to be at their best. *10 best bet |
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02-14-13 | New Mexico State v. San Jose St +9.5 | Top | 67-57 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
I'm playing on SAN JOSE STATE. Playing without James Kinney for the past few weeks, the Spartans have struggled. Off a blowout loss vs. Utah State, not many are giving them much of a chance here. That's led to a generously high line. I believe it will prove to be too high.
Yes, the Spartans were blown out by Utah State. They'd won outright (as +10 dogs) at Idaho their previous game though, so have been showing some signs of coming around. Last time out, the Spartans were getting 5.5 points vs. Utah State. The Aggies are 17-5 and 7-2 on the road. This time out, the Spartans are getting an extra handful of points against New Mexico State, despite the fact that the Aggies are 5-7 away from their home floor. The Aggies, who currently have a few players missing, have been on quite a roll. However, it should be noted that they won their last two games (vs. Idaho and Seattle) by only five combined points. With Utah State on deck, I feel they may not be entirely focused here. While the Aggies are now 6-9 ATS their last 15 in February, the Spartans are 10-5 ATS their last 15 February games. Catching the Aggies possibly looking ahead to Saturday's showdown vs. Utah State, I expect the revenge-minded Spartans to step up with their best effort, giving their guests a much tougher game than most will be expecting. *9 best bet |
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02-14-13 | St. Johns v. Louisville -17 | Top | 58-72 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
I'm playing on LOUISVILLE. I've had a pretty good read when going on/against the Cardinals in recent weeks. I played against them when they lost at Notre Dame and I was also against them when they failed to cover vs. Pittsburgh. Yet, I was on them in their recent lopsided wins over Marquette and Depaul. I feel that they're ready to deliver another blowout here.
While the Red Storm are 20-23-1 ATS the past couple of seasons, when playing a game with an O/U line in the, the Cardinals are 25-16-2 ATS when doing so. True, Louisville is off a devastating loss - a game that was the longest in Big East history. That was on Saturday though, so they've had plenty of time to recover. The Red Storm would obviously love to pull the upset here. They're in over their heads though, in my opinion. Note that they've been beaten by double-digits six times already this season, most recently a 19-point loss on Saturday. The Cardinals have dominated the Red Storm, including a 15 point win (as an 8-point favorite) at MSG last season. The gap between the teams is arguably even bigger right now. With the venue shifting to Louisville, I expect an even bigger win. *10 Blue Marlin |
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02-14-13 | Miami Heat v. Oklahoma City Thunder -4.5 | Top | 110-100 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
I'm playing on OKC. Obviously these are both excellent. Both are capable of winning anywhere, at any time. That said, with this game being played at OKC and with the Heat having already held serve at Miami , I expect the Thunder to have the advantage.
For starters, the Heat are 12-11 (10-23 ATS) on the road. The Thunder are 23-3 (18-8 ATS) at home. Big difference there. The Heat won (at Miami) on Christmas. Throw in the fact that the Heat knocked them out of the playoffs last year and its safe to say that the Thunder will be extremely motivated. Note that OKC is an excellent 50-28-5 ATS the past few seasons, when attempting to avenge an earlier loss - 11-4 SU/ATS their last 15 in that situation. I successfully played against the Thunder at Salt Lake City on Tuesday. Laying six points, they lost 109-94. That doesn't mean that we should expect another loss here though. In fact, the Thunder are 9-1 SU/ATS the last 10 times that they were off a SU loss as a favorite, going a profitable 32-12-1 (38-7 SU) their last 45 in that situation. The Thunder are also 12-5 ATS (13-4 SU) their last 17 Even including the win on Christmas, The Heat are still only 10-13 ATS against teams with a winning record. On the other hand, the Thunder are 16-7-1 ATS against winning teams. Add it all up and its payback time Thursday. *10 Personal Favorite |
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02-14-13 | Miami Heat v. Oklahoma City Thunder UNDER 205 | Top | 110-100 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
I'm playing on OKC and Miami to finish UNDER the total. With all the star power that they both bring to the table, these two teams are both very capable of scoring a lot of points. That's why we've got an O/U line in the 200s. However, lets not forget that both teams are also very solid defensively.
If going by the opposing teams field goal percentage, the Thunder are the second best defensive team in the league while the Heat are the 8th best. The Thunder allow opposing teams to shoot just 43%. That number dips to a mere 42.6% in games here at OKC. While they weren't very good defensively at Utah, the Thunder allowed a mere 69 points in their previous game, holding the Suns to 33% shooting. They've been trying to emphasize defense lately and will look for a better effort on that side of the ball tonight. Note that the UNDER is 6-4 the last 10 times that the Thunder were off an upset loss, 26-19 the past 45. Miami holds opposing teams to 44.1% from the field overall. However, a closer look reveals that number actually dips to 43.6% on the road. True, the Heat have seen four straight games top the total. However, its also true that the UNDER is 82-61-3 the past 146 times that their previous three games finished above the number, a 3-1 UNDER mark their last four in that situation - after last game. Note that two of those "overs" finished with 204 or fewer points. The earlier meeting had an O/U line of 204 and finished with 200. If you look back to last season's playoffs, we find that the O/U lines were in the 190s. We're getting significantly more points to work with here and I feel that's offering excellent value. *10 blue chip |
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02-13-13 | Oregon v. Washington -1 | Top | 65-52 | Loss | -122 | 15 h 3 m | Show |
I'm playing on WASHINGTON. I successfully played against the Huskies in their last game. However, that was on the road against a USC team which I felt was under-vajued and which I believed was was on the upswing. This one sets up much better. This time, the Huskies are back home. This time, they're the ones playing with "revenge." This time, they catch an Oregon team which is on a bit of a downswing.
In fact, while they did manage to beat Utah last time out, the Ducks have now failed to cover the spread in six straight games, losing three of those. Its no coincidence that freshman point guard Dominic Artis has been out the past five games. Artis averages double-digits in points and his 3.8 assists per game leads the team. He's currently listed as doubtful to return tonight. Even if Artis did manage to play, he may not be 100%. Off the loss vs. the Trojans, the Huskies, 3-1 ATS the last four times that they were listed as home favorites of three or less, are starting to get desperate for wins. I feel that will work in our favor. Washington guard Scott Suggs commented: We can't give away any more games. We're beating ourselves. It's not like we are not capable or not talented enough to win these games." Even with the loss at USC, the Huskies have still covered four of their last five. Their most recent home game resulted in a victory over Arizona State. The Huskies are 10-4 ATS against winning teams and 3-1 ATS when attempting to avenge an earlier road loss. Throw in the fact that they've also won three in a row and 11 of 12 against the Ducks in Seattle and I'm expecting another win and cover. *10 personal favorite |
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02-13-13 | Miami (Fla) v. Florida State +6.5 | Top | 74-68 | Win | 100 | 14 h 8 m | Show |
I'm playing on FLORIDA STATE. The Hurricanes are having a great season and they've come through for me when asked. However, off a win over UNC, I feel they're laying a few too many points against a revenge-minded instate rival.
All the way up to #3 in the polls, I believe the Canes may be patting themselves on the back a little here. Keep in mind they've never been higher than #8 in school history before. Senior center Reggie Johnson admitted: "I've never really thought that Miami could be a top 10 program. I didn't think we'd be here in February. It's surreal." The Seminoles come in off a bad effort and have admittedly had some trouble lately. Coach Leonard Hamilton let his team have it after the last game though and I expect a much better effort from the Noles here. Keep in mind that Florida State, the defending ACC Tournament Champs, also has a recent blowout loss at Miami fresh in its mind. Hamilton had this to say after the last game: "We put our uniforms on right. That's about where it stopped. ... I look at the stats, even though the stats are not very good from my standpoint, I think we probably played worse than the stats say." The Noles are 6-4 ATS as underdogs, 19-13 ATS the past couple of seasons, when getting points. They're also 7-4 ATS the past couple of seasons, when attempting to avenge an earlier road loss and that includes a 2-0 ATS mark when attempting to avenge a loss of 20 or more points. The last three regular season meetings here (all FSU wins) were all decided by six or fewer points. I feel this one could easily come down to the wire once again and am grabbing all the points I can get. *10 best bet |
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02-12-13 | Houston Rockets v. Golden State Warriors UNDER 221 | Top | 116-107 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 57 m | Show |
I'm playing on Golden State and Houston to finish UNDER the total. These teams just faced each other at Houston last week. That game had an O/U line of 217. Due in large part to the fact that it was very high-scoring, (140-109!) we're getting a considerably higher O/U line to work with. While I respect both offenses, I'm expecting to see a much lower-scoring contest and feel that the higher O/U line is providing us with excellent value.
I believe that the venue needs to be given consideration. The Rockets do indeed score a ton of points at Houston. In fact, their 110.3 ppg average at home is the most in the entire NBA. However, that number dips down to 102.2 on the road. That's still a lot - but its eight less than they average at home, which is certainly significant. Their field goal percentage on the road is less than 45%, as compared to better than 47% at home. On other side of the ball, the Rockets actually allow fewer points (102.9) on the road than they do at home (103.5). The opposite is true of Golden State. The Warriors allow a high 104.3 points per game on the road. However, at home, they're permitting only 96.5. That's nearly eight points less, again a significant difference. On the other side of the ball, the Warriors 101.2 ppg average at home is only slightly higher than the 100.6 which they average on the road. Off the upset loss at Sacramento, note that the Rockets have seen the UNDER go 7-1 when they were off a SU loss as a favorite. With the Warriors determined to improve defensively and to avoid a repeat of last week, I expect the final combined score to stay beneath the generously high number, the UNDER improving to 4-2 when they were listed as home favorites in the 3.5 to 6 point range. *10 blue chip |
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02-12-13 | Houston Rockets v. Golden State Warriors -4.5 | Top | 116-107 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 32 m | Show |
I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE. I successfully played against the Rockets in their last game. Favored by a handful of points, they lost outright at Sacramento. Playing at a more difficult venue and now facing a better team than the one that just beat them, I expect the Rockets to stumble once again.
These teams just faced each other last week at Houston. The Warriors came in riding high but they were run right out of the building, losing 140-109. That was the beginning of an ugly 0-4 SU/ATS road trip. Needless to say, the Warriors happy to be back home. Golden State checks in with 14-15 record on the road but a stellar 16-6 record here at home. Meanwhile, the Rockets are an impressive 18-8 at Houston but an ugly 10-17 on the road. While the Warriors allow about eight points less per game at home than they do on the road, the Rockets score about eight points per game less on the road than they do at home. The Warriors are in one of their better roles here too, as we find them at 4-1 ATS (5-0 SU) as home favorites in the 3.5 to 6 range. Note that the Warriors are also 7-4-1 ATS after allowing 105 or more points. With last week's embarrassing loss still fresh in their memories, I'm expecting them to respond with another win and cover here. *10 personal favorite |
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02-12-13 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Utah Jazz +6 | Top | 94-109 | Win | 100 | 14 h 28 m | Show |
I'm playing on UTAH. The Thunder have the second best record in basketball and are tied for the fewest losses. They enter tonight's game on quite the roll. That record and recent win streak has them laying quite a few points. At this difficult venue, I feel that it will prove to be too many.
While the Thunder do have a much better overall record, some may be surprised to learn that Utah's 19-6 home record is actually superior to OKC's 16-9 mark on the road. Although they lost their last game here, the Jazz have still won 10 of their last 12 home games. The recent loss came by four points. Going back further finds the Jazz at 65-36 here the past 2+ seasons. (OKC is 69-48 on the road during that time.) With their strong home record, its not that surprising that the Jazz are 5-3 ATS the past couple of seasons, when listed as home underdogs in the 3.5 to 6 range. The Thunder were 9-11-1 ATS during that stretch, when listed as road favorites in the 3.5 to 6 range. Although they have tomorrow off, its still worth noting that the Thunder have a big Thursday game vs. Miami on deck. The last meeting here at Salt Lake City saw the (+3) Jazz upset the Thunder by a score of 97-90. Looking to avenge a November loss at OKC, looking to bounce back from consecutive losses and to prove they can play with the best in their division, I expect a highly motivated effort from the Jazz, en route to at least a cover. *10 best bet |
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02-12-13 | Kentucky v. Florida -9.5 | Top | 52-69 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
I'm playing on FLORIDA. It was exactly one week ago that I played on the Wildcats in their blowout win over South Carolina. Needless to say, this is a far more difficult opponent. Last week, I felt that the Gamecocks were in the wrong place, at the wrong time. The shoe's on the other foot here though, as I believe the Cats are coming to Gainesville at the wrong time.
The Gators have won nine of 10 SEC games by double-digits, beating SEC opponents by an average of 22.6 ppg. This is arguably the biggest game of them all for the Gators though, as they haven't forgotten that Kentucky beat them in all three meetings last season, or that the Cats have beaten them in five straight overall. While Kentucky suffered heavy losses from last year, the same cannot be said of Florida, although the Gators did lose Will Yeguete last week. Kentucky coach Calipari said this of the Gators: ''You've got a top-five team on the road, they play well in their building, it'll be a hard game for us to win. Let's put it this way: Last year, they were an Elite Eight team that should've been in the Final Four, one game short of that, and they've got everybody back. And college basketball isn't what it was a year ago, so that's how good a challenge, how big a challenge and how good a team they are.'' While the line might initially seem high, I believe it could easily be even higher. The fact that Florida has failed to cover a few in a row has worked to our advantage in keeping it at its current level. (Note that the Gators are 21-10 ATS their last 31 lined games after failing to cover three or more consecutive games.) The Cats are better than they were at the beginning of the season. However, I don't feel that they're ready for what they're going to encounter here. With payback on their minds, I expect the Gators to pull away for a double-digit win, in a game they've had circled since the day they saw the schedule. *10 personal favorite |
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02-11-13 | Kansas State v. Kansas -7.5 | Top | 62-83 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
I'm playing on KANSAS. Some may look at the lead up to this game and feel that the Wildcats are catching their rivals at the right time. After all, the Jayhawks have lost a few in a row and are in danger of their longest losing streak in 24 years. I see it the other way though. Instead, I feel that the Wildcats are in the wrong place at the wrong time.
A few losses doesn't mean that the Jayhawks aren't still very dangerous, a fact Kansas State knows all too well. (The Jayhawks are 45-3 against the Wildcats, 17-1 at Allen Fieldhouse.) Kansas coach Bill Self had this to say of his team's recent skid and its performance on Saturday: "Obviously three in a row is not good, but this game to me today, I'm not leaving out of here disgusted with my team at all because we actually played better. You don't go from being a good team to a bad team overnight. We've had a couple of bad outings, but we're still a good team." Admittedly, the Wildcats are pretty tough. They're still just 10-15 ATS the last 25 times that they were underdogs though, including a loss vs. these same Jayhawks on 1/22. (Kansas won by 4 as a 3.5 point favorite.) Sure, the Wildcats would love nothing more than to avenge that loss. However, it should be noted that they're only 2-5 ATS the last seven times that they attempted to avenge and earlier home defeat. While they did fail to cover for the fourth straight time, the Jayhawks are still 4-1 ATS the last five times that they were off three (or more) consecutive non-covers. Some of you may recall that I played on them against Baylor, when off three consecutive ATS losses earlier. The Jayhawks rewarded me with a 61-44 victory in that one. I'm expecting a desperate and highly motivated Kansas squad to record another double-digit win here. *10 Main Event |
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02-11-13 | Washington Wizards v. Milwaukee Bucks -4 | Top | 102-90 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. The Wizards come in as the hotter team. That's kept this line very low and likely has many backing the underdog. I feel the low line is providing us excellent value on what I expect to be a highly motivated home favorite.
Before getting too caught up in the recent winning streak, lets not forget that the Wizards are only 3-21 on the road, 15-83 the past few seasons. That includes a 5-14 ATS (4-15 SU) record as road underdogs in the 3.5 to 6 range. During that stretch, the Bucks were 52-46 at home, going 11-9 ATS (13-7 SU) as home favorites in the 3.5 to 6 range. That includes a 3-1 ATS mark in that role this season. The Bucks are 6-2 ATS the last eight times that they were off an upset loss and 16-6 ATS the last couple of seasons, after losing three or more consecutive games. They've dominated the Wizards and I look for them to bounce back with a much needed win and cover. *10 Personal Favorite |
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02-11-13 | Washington Wizards v. Milwaukee Bucks OVER 197 | Top | 102-90 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 60 m | Show |
I'm playing on Milwaukee and Washington to finish OVER the total. The Bucks have seen each of their last two games dip below the total. Those results are among the factors in helping to keep this O/U line below the 200 mark. I believe it will prove to be too low.
A closer look at the Bucks last game shows that it had an O/U line of 205.5 and finished with 205 points. So, it wasn't exactly low-scoring. Their previous game was indeed lower-scoring (100-86 loss) however it was on the road and the Bucks were playing the second of back-to-back games, after playing in the high altitude of Denver the previous night. Even including the last two games, the OVER remains a lucrative 8-3 the last 11 times that the Bucks took the floor. Eight of those 11 games produced greater than 200 points. Granted, the Wizards have been involved in some lower-scoring games lately and overall this season; those results also factoring in keeping the O/U line below the 200 mark. The Wizards do check after two straight days of rest though. That's noteworthy as we find the OVER at exactly 4-1 the last five times that they played with exactly two day's worth of rest in between games. Those five contests had combined scores of 214, 199, 147, 195 and 197. It should be noted that the Bucks have been without Larry Sanders the last couple of games. He's currently listed as doubtful; even if he does play he may not be as effective as normal. That's noteworthy as he leads the entire NBA in blocks per game and is an excellent defender. Take him out of the mix and the Bucks know they need to score more points as their opponent likely will too. Note that the Bucks have seen the OVER go 5-3 when off an upset loss. Prior to a 192 point affair at Washington back in early November, the Bucks and Wizards had seen their previous three meetings produce 233, 210 and 237 points. The last time that they faced each other here at Milwaukee (the 237 game) they already had 120 points by half-time. I'm expecting another relatively high-scoring game here. *10 blue chip |
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02-11-13 | Boston Celtics v. Charlotte Bobcats +4.5 | Top | 91-94 | Win | 100 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
I'm playing on CHARLOTTE. The Bobcats have been going through another tough stretch. The schedule-makers have helped them out a bit here though and I feel that they're in a good spot to take advantage.
The Celtics, who are only 7-13-2 ATS (8-14 SU) on the road, aren't in a very good situation here. For starters, they're just 11-19 ATS the last 30 times that they were listed as road favorites in the 3.5 to 6 range, 1-3 ATS this season. They're also only 18-32-2 ATS the last couple of seasons, after playing the previous day. This is worse than a typical back-to-back spot though. That's because last night's game went to triple-OT. Pierce played more than 54 minutes. Garnett topped the 47 minute mark while Bradley played nearly 46. Both Green and Terry also played more than 40 minutes while Bass contributed 32+. While the Celts have certainly been impressive since Rondo went down, off last night's marathon, I expect them to finally miss him tonight. I look for the revenge-minded Bobcats to have the fresher legs and better focus, en route to at least a cover. *10 Eastern Conf Best Bet |
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02-11-13 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Philadelphia 76ers +5.5 | Top | 107-90 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 2 m | Show |
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. The Clippers are obviously a much different team with Chris Paul back in the lineup. That said, I feel that they're in a tough spot and laying too many points here.
For starters, lets establish that the Clippers' 16-12 road record is no better than the 76'ers 16-12 home record. Yet, despite those identical records, the 76ers are getting a solid handful of points to work with. In addition to having homecourt advantage, the 76'ers have a solid scheduling edge. They had last night off and are also playing their 8th straight home game. They didn't play a single set of back-to-back games during that entire homestand and they had two games off in between a couple of the games. Off a double-digit win Saturday and now 4-1 SU/AS their last five, they should be fresh. On the other hand, the Clippers played at MSG last night and are now playing the final leg of a season-long 8-game road trip. Note that they're only 5-7 ATS when playing the second of back-to-back games. Obviously, they'd like to close out the trip with a victory. However, after so many days on the road, thoughts of the return home could cause them to lose a little focus. While they lost by a single point against the Clippers here last season, the 76'ers are still 12-3 (9-5-1 ATS) the last 15 times that they were a host in this series. Playing some of their best basketball of the season and with the schedule in their favor, I expect at least another cover here. *10 non-conf. best bet |
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02-10-13 | Washington v. USC -2 | Top | 60-71 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
I'm playing on USC. I've won with the Trojans on a few different occasions this season. I feel that this will be another excellent spot to back them.
Off back-to-back victories, the Trojans are feeling good about themselves. They've adjusted to the coaching change and are optimistic about the future. This team was always more talented than its record indicated and its now finally living up to its potential. Two games ago, the Trojans went on the road and upset UCLA. Off that big win, they started a little slowly against Washington State on Thursday. However, playing in front of the home crowd, they roared back for a 4-point win. The Trojans step up in class a little here to take on the Huskies. However, this isn't nearly as strong as many Washington teams of the past and the Huskies currently aren't playing well. In fact, they've lost five of their last six games, going 0-3 on the road during that stretch. With an O/U line in the high 130s, note that the Trojans are 14-3 SU and 11-4-2 ATS the last 17 times that they played a home game with an O/U line in the 135 to 139.5 range, including a 2-0 SU/ATS mark in that situation the past couple of seasons. During that stretch, the Huskies were just 1-5 ATS when playing a road game with an O/U line in the same range. The Trojans were beaten soundly by the Huskies in both meetings last season. They haven't forgotten. I believe they're catching them at the right time to get some payback and I look for homecourt to prove significant. *10 Personal Favorite |
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02-10-13 | New Orleans Hornets v. Toronto Raptors UNDER 194.5 | Top | 89-102 | Win | 100 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
I'm playing on Toronto and New Orleans to finish UNDER the total. The Hornets are off a big 111-100 victory. However, that 111 point outburst wasn't typical of them. Their previous four games had seen them score 93, 86, 98 and 99 points. For the season, they're averaging 93.9.
Note that the UNDER is 18-8 the past 26 times that New Orleans was off a double-digit win, 3-1 the last four. The UNDER is also 30-19 the past couple of seasons when the Hornets were off an upset win, 7-4 the last 11. Granted, the Hornets have been a team which averages more points on the road than at home. However, today they'll be up against a Toronto team which is typically much stingier at home than it is on the road. The Raptors last game was high-scoring, thanks to over-time. However, their previous four games had scores of 194, 185, 171 and 185 points. Since the trade, they've been playing mostly solid defense. Note that the earlier meeting at NO had an O/U line of just 182.5. We're getting considerably more points to work with here. For the season, the UNDER is 15-10 here at Toronto, including a 6-3 mark when the O/U line ranged from the 190 to 194.5. I expect those stats to improve here. *10 blue chip |
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02-09-13 | Utah Jazz v. Sacramento Kings OVER 197 | Top | 109-120 | Win | 100 | 15 h 9 m | Show |
I'm playing on Utah and Sacramento to finish OVER the total. These teams faced each other at Utah earlier this week. That 2/4 game was fairly low-scoring (98-91) and it stayed below the total. The Jazz have played a couple of games since, including one last night while the Kings have had an extended layoff. We're getting a slightly lower total to to work with for tonight's rematch than we were on Monday. However, with the venue shifting to Sacramento, I'm expecting a higher score.
As the did at Salt Lake City, the Kings often have trouble scoring on the road. In fact, the 91 they managed there was almost identical to their 91.2 average on the road. However, games at Sacramento are a different story for the Kings. In fact, they average a healthy 100.8 ppg game here. That means that they score more than 10 extra points per home game. To give some perspective, note that the Kings 91.2 road average is the worst in the Western Conference, fourth worst in the NBA. However, their 100.8 mark at home ranks 11th best in the league, 9th best in the west. On the other side of the ball, unlike most teams, the Kings actually allow more points at home than they do on the road. They give up 101.9 ppg on the road. That's not great but its not completely terrible either. (Its the 10th worst mark in the league.) However, at home the Kings are allowing 104.3 ppg. That's the worst mark in the entire league. Meanwhile, the Jazz give up 101.2 on the road, far more than the 95.6 they permit at Salt Lake City. Utah's last two visits here have both produced 205 points. Given their home stats, its not surprising that the Kings have seen the OVER go 15-8-1 here this season. Ultimately, with games here averaging greater than 205 points this season, I look for the final combined score to again finish above the total. *10 blue chip |
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02-09-13 | Louisville v. Notre Dame +5.5 | Top | 101-104 | Win | 100 | 15 h 36 m | Show |
I'm playing on NOTRE DAME. I've had a pretty good read on the Cardinals in recent days. I successfully played against them when they failed to cover vs. Pittsburgh and came right back and played on them when they blew out Marquette. I feel that tonight will prove to be an excellent spot to go against them.
While I believe the Irish have an excellent shout at an outright win, I also feel that we could easily see a very close game and that the points could come into play. Keep in mind that four of the last five meetings went to OT, a couple of those going to double-OT. Pitino had this to say of the Irish "Notre Dame has a great home-court advantage, one of the best in college basketball. We've been in some really, really tight ball games with Notre Dame, a lot of exciting ones, and this should be another exciting one." Also note that the Irish have won their last three home meetings against the Cardinals by average of 19.5 points. The last game on this floor was exactly two years ago to the day - the Irish won by 10. The last time that the Cardinals won here was way back in 1994 - a 3 point win in OT. The Irish are 46-3 their last 49 at home. They're also 8-4 ATS the last dozen times that they were listed as home underdogs in the 3.5 to 6 range. I expect them to rise to the occasion with at least another cover here. *10 main event |
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02-09-13 | New Mexico v. UNLV -5 | Top | 55-64 | Win | 100 | 14 h 25 m | Show |
I'm playing on UNLV. The Lobos are a strong and well-coached team, worthy of their high national ranking. However, they're not as good on the road as they are at home. Facing what should be a very determined Rebels team, I expect the Lobos to struggle at this difficult venue.
The Rebels should be highly motivated here. Not only have they lost two in a row, but they've also got "revenge" on their minds, having suffered a 5-point loss at New Mexico exactly one month ago. They also haven't forgotten that the Lobos beat them here in last year's conference tournament. I believe that the Rebels need this game more and I expect an extremely motivated effort. Like their guests, the Rebels are a much different team at home, last March notwithstanding. They're 12-1 here and the lone loss came in November. Not only have they won 11 straight at the Thomas & Mack Center, they're 30-1 in regular-season games here since the start of last season. To their credit, the Lobos did win an early season neutral court game vs. UConn and they also did eke out a 1-point win at Cincinnati. Their overall record (8-2) away from home does look pretty good, at least at first glance. However, their best conference road win came at Wyoming, a 4-point win . That's not an easy venue - but the Cowboys aren't as talented as the team that they'll face here. Prior to win at Laramie, when facing a top tier team (San Diego State) of the likes of the one they'll see here, the Lobos were destroyed by a score of 55-34. (Some of you will likely recall that I backed the Aztecs in that one.) The blowout loss at San Diego State was preceded by a close win at Boise, another team not in the class of the one they'll face here. Prior to that, when facing a good Billikens squad at St. Louis , the Lobos were crushed by a score of 60-46. The last regular season meeting between these teams here at UNLV saw the Rebels win by 15. Don't be surprised when they pull away for another double-digit win tonight. *10 GOM |
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02-09-13 | Detroit Pistons v. Milwaukee Bucks -6.5 | Top | 105-100 | Loss | -109 | 15 h 41 m | Show |
I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. The Pistons have taken two of three meetings this season. Playing at home and with the schedule in their favor, I expect the Bucks to even the season series tonight.
The Bucks have lost two straight. However, those games came at Utah and Denver. Their last home game resulted in a 9-point win. Since being upset by the Pistons here in early January, the Bucks have played only four home games. They won three of them, all three victories coming by a minimum of seven points. As for the Pistons, they're just 1-4 on the road, since that 1/11 victory here. The four losses came by 59 combined points, three of them by at least a dozen. For the season, they're a dismal 5-19 away from Detroit. While the Bucks have had the last two days off, the Pistons are off an upset win vs. the Spurs last night. Give them credit for winning that game. However, keep in mind that they're only 2-6 ATS when off an upset win and just 5-7 ATS (3-9 SU) when playing the second of back-to-back games. The Bucks, 7-4 when off two day's rest in between games, are 8-5-1 ATS (10-4 SU) when off a double-digit loss. I expect them to take care of business here. *10 personal favorite |
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02-08-13 | New York Knicks v. Minnesota Timberwolves +6 | Top | 100-94 | Push | 0 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
I'm playing on MINNESOTA. Playing the final game of a homestand, I expect a highly motivated effort from the revenge-minded T-Wolves tonight.
The T-Wolves played the Knicks very tough at MSG earlier, losing by just three points. That 94-91 game should give them some confidence here. Now, in addition to playing at Minnesota, they catch the Knicks off a 10-point loss at Washington. While its true that T-Wolves are still dealing with some injury issues, their point guard (Rubio) has a number of games under his belt and is heating up. Over his last two games alone, Rubio has 25 assists. Center Greg Stiemsma said this of Rubio: "He's been playing really well lately. His pace of the game, his playcalling, everything is elevated. It's fun to see, fun to be a part of." The Knicks have played only five road games in 2013 and they've won just two of them. Those two victories came by an average of only 5.5 points too, a 3-point and an 11-point win. The T-Wolves are 8-4 ATS when off a double-digit loss. In addition to the 3-point loss at MSG earlier, the T-Wolves lost by two by the Knicks in last season's game here, a 100-98 affair last February. I won't be surprised to see this one also come down to the wire and am grabbing all those generous points. *10 best bet |
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02-08-13 | Toronto Raptors v. Indiana Pacers OVER 186 | Top | 100-98 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
I'm playing on Toronto and Indiana to finish OVER the total. I successfully played on the Pacers to finish below the total in their last game (88-69 win at Philadelphia) and am well aware that they can be quite stingy at times. However, their recent home games have been high-scoring and I feel that this number will prove to be a little on the low side.
Prior to scoring only 88 against the 76ers, the Pacers had scored 114, 111, 102, 98, 101 and 110 points in their previous six games, the first three of those all coming here at Indiana. Those games had combined scores of 217, 215 and 191. The Raptors have scored nearly as many points on the road as they do overall. They're averaging 96.7 ppg overall and 97.5 overall More importantly, they give up a lot more on the road than they do at home. At home, the Raptors are permitting a somewhat respectable 95.5 ppg. However, when playing away from Toronto they allow a high 103.3 ppg. In fact, Charlotte is the only Eastern Conference team which allows more points per game than Toronto. Not surprisingly, the OVER is 15-9 in Raptor road games. That includes a 4-2 OVER mark when the O/U line ranged from 185 to 189.5. Going back a little further finds the OVER at 13-7 the last 20 times that the Raptors played a road game with an O/U line in that range. I expect those stats to improve this evening. *10 blue chip |
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02-08-13 | Dartmouth v. Columbia -11.5 | Top | 60-57 | Loss | -104 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
I'm playing on COLUMBIA. The Lions have lost a few in a row. Stepping down in class to take on a team which they swept each of the past two seasons, I expect them to snap their losing streak in convincing fashion this evening.
Dartmouth is 1-8 on the road and has yet to beat a quality team away from home. This season's lone road win came at Longwood back on 12/1. (With a 3-21 record, Longwood is the worst team in the Big South.) Note that the Big Green are 0-2 ATS as road underdogs in the 9.5 to 12 range. When the Lions win, they tend to do so by a fairly comfortable margin. Seven of their nine victories have come by greater than 10 points. (The other two came by 9 and 7.) I believe there's a fairly wide gap between these teams and I'm expecting more of the same here. *10 Personal Favorite |
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02-07-13 | Chicago Bulls v. Denver Nuggets UNDER 197 | Top | 96-128 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
I'm playing on Denver and Chicago to finish UNDER the total. The Nuggets have been on an "over" streak recently, which has helped in providing a generously high number this evening. I feel that the number is a little high and I'm expecting the streak to come to an end here.
Perhaps a little tired from playing their third game in four nights, the Bulls allowed 111 points last time out. That wasn't normal for them though. In factor, the Bulls allowed just 76 points their previous time out and that had marked the tenth time in a row that they held their opponent to double-digits. Chicago has now had the past two nights off and should be motivated for an improved defensive effort. Note that the UNDER is a lucrative 15-4 the last 19 times that the Bulls allowed 105 or more points in their previous game. During that stretch, the UNDER is also 30-15 when they were listed as underdogs and 37-27 when facing an opponent from the Western Conference. Overall Chicago games are averaging 184.6 points. Of course, Denver games have been higher-scoring. However, the Nuggets have bee a profitable "under" team the past couple of seasons, when listed as home favorites of this size. In fact, the UNDER is 20-9 the past 2+ seasons, when the Nuggets were listed as home favorites in the 6.5 to 9 range. More of the same tonight. *10 blue chip |
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02-07-13 | Seattle +17 v. Denver | Top | 55-72 | Push | 0 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
I'm playing on SEATTLE. I successfully played on the Redhawks a couple of times early in the season. Playing their first season in the WAC Conference, I suggested that this team was going to play with a chip on its shoulder. While its been some time since I've backed them, off a blowout loss, I expect the Redhawks to again "play with a chip on their shoulder" en route to an ATS victory.
The Redhawks, who lost by 13 (as 6.5 point underdogs) at home against Denver last month, are 2-1 ATS when attempting to avenge an earlier home loss, while going 5-3 ATS when off a conference loss. The Redhawks are also an impressive 8-2 ATS their last 10 road lined games. Note that five of Denver's last six victories have come by 15 or fewer points. True, Seattle did lose its last game by 20 points. However, a closer look shows that was the first in 2013 that the Redhawks lost by greater than 13 points. In fact, seven of their last nine losses have been by seven or less. I look for this one to be closer than many will be expecting and am grabbing all the points I can get. *10 |
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02-07-13 | Los Angeles Lakers +2.5 v. Boston Celtics | Top | 95-116 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
I'm playing on the LA LAKERS. My "Personal Favorite" plays are typically reserved for plays on teams which are favored. However, when I strongly believe an underdog is poised to win outright, I'll occasionally use one on an underdog. That's the case here.
The Lakers, who had yesterday off, have been a much better team of late. They've won three straight and six of seven. Last time out, they limited Brooklyn to 83 points. Thats noteworthy as we find them at 29-5 SU the last 34 times that they held their previous opponent to 85 or fewer points, 4-1 SU/ATS their last five in that situation. While the Celtics won last night, the absence of Rondo - and perhaps the Garnett trade-talk - figures to catch up with them in this back-to-back spot. Note that the Celtics are an ugly 17-32-2 ATS the past couple of seasons, when off a game the previous day. Listed as small underdogs, the Lakers scored a minor upset here almost exactly (2/9/12) a year ago. With the schedule in their favor and playing arguably their best basketball of the season, I look for history to repeat itself here. *10 personal favorite |
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02-07-13 | Canisius v. Manhattan +3 | Top | 54-67 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
I'm playing on MANHATTAN. While Canisius comes in as the favorite, I believe that the Jaspers will be the team which comes away with the win.
I believe this is a bit of a tough spot for the Golden Griffins. They're off games against Loyola-MD and Iona, two of the top teams in the conference. After this, they face Niagara- the team's biggest rival - and also one of the top teams in the conference. That's followed by Loyola-MD again. With all those "big" games in the recent past and near future, I feel that it will be difficult to fully focus on a Manhattan team which ranks near the bottom of the conference and which the Golden Griffins already defeated. Note that Cansisius is only 3-8 ATS the last 11 times it was listed as a road favorite of three or fewer points. On the other hand, I feel that the revenge-minded Jaspers should be fully focused on the task at hand. They still view themselves among the upper teams in the conference and believe that they can show in in the conference tournament. However, they also know that they can't afford to wait and just suddenly turn it on. Note that the Jaspers won by eight last time out, their second win in three games. They were 17.5 point favorites when they hosted Canisius last season, winning by 13. Things have changed - but not enough to warrant such a massive line swing. At least not in my opinion. *10 best bet. |
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02-06-13 | Indiana Pacers v. Philadelphia 76ers -2.5 | Top | 88-69 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. The 76'ers are suddenly catching fire. They're 4-1 SU/ATS their last five and 3-0 SU/ATS their last three. Its true that none of those recent wins have come against elite teams. However, tonight's schedule provides them with an excellent opportunity to extend their winning streak while beating a quality opponent at the same time.
Its true that the 76'ers will be without Thaddaeus Young here. Admittedly, he's an important player for them. However, we often see teams play their best the first game after one of their top players goes down. I expect the 76'ers to come together and play their hardest to help make up for the loss of Young - and feel that the venue and schedule advantages will more than compensate. After a dominating 78-61 victory over Orlando on Monday, the third straight time that they allowed less than 85 points, the 76'ers had last night off. This is the sixth day of February and this will be only their third game. By comparison, the Pacers will be playing their third game in the last three days alone. A tough scheduling spot, indeed. In fact, this is the only set of back-to-back-to-back games in the NBA this season, only made possible due to a December 26th blizzard that caused a game at Indiana to be postponed. After last night's game, the Pacers were already admitting they felt fatigue creeping in. After scoring 29 last night, Paul George noted: "You definitely feel it. I felt it tonight, really ... " Regardless of the schedule, the Pacers typically haven't fared too well as small road underdogs. In fact, they're 4-11-1 ATS (4-12 SU) the last 16 times that they were listed as road underdogs of three or fewer points, going 0-6 ATS their last six in that role. Overall, they're only 10-16 on the road. The 76'ers recent winning streak has come here at Philadelphia, as this will mark the sixth game of an 8-game homestand. Now 14-8 ATS the last 22 times that they played their previous three at home, I expect the 76'ers to be the fresher team and expect a win and cover. *10 Personal Favorite |
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02-06-13 | Boston Celtics v. Toronto Raptors -3 | Top | 99-95 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 43 m | Show |
I'm playing on TORONTO. Some might be surprised to see the Raptors favored against the Celtics. Indeed, its not something you see every day. I feel that the home team is laying points for good reason though.
The Raptors, who may see Bargnani return tonight, have been playing hard for many weeks. Now, they've got a legit star in Rudy Gay in the fold - and he's got a couple of games with the team under his belt. The team and the city are buzzing - really, this is arguably as good as this team has "felt" in quite some time. On the other hand, already without Rondo, the Celtics may be distracted by all the recent trade talk surrounding Garnett. While the team does have a few recent covers, clearly these aren't the happiest of days. A look at the schedule shows that both teams had the past two nights off. The Raptors will also have tomorrow off. On the other hand, the Celtics will host the Lakers, a long-time rival, tomorrow. I feel it may be easy for them to look past Toronto. Note that the Celtics are a rather surprising 2-5 SU/ATS when playing with two day's rest in between games. Perhaps more importantly, they're also an ugly 1-5 SU/ATS the last six times that they played the front-end of back-to-back games. The Raptors lost big at Boston back in November. They've had recent success against the Celtics here at Toronto recently though, winning three of the last four meetings including each of the last two. They won those games by scores of 86-74 and 84-79. More of the same here. *10 Atlantic DIV GOW |
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02-06-13 | Indiana Pacers v. Philadelphia 76ers UNDER 182.5 | Top | 88-69 | Win | 100 | 7 h 40 m | Show |
I'm playing on Indiana and Philadelphia to finish UNDER the total. I lost with the Pacers to finish 'under' the total last night. Catching them playing their third game in three days and facing a Philadelphia team which has been extremely stingy of late, I'm willing to give it another shot today.
The 76'ers have allowed less than 85 points in three straight games, permitting 84, 80 and 61. Having won all those games, while now having to deal with the loss os Thaddeus Young, they should be content to continue trying to play at a similar tempo and with a similar emphasis on defense. (They've seen the UNDER go 16-9 the last 25 times that their previous three games fell below the total.) The Pacers, who have seen the UNDER go 11-4-1 the past couple of seasons after playing three or more consecutive home games, average fewer than 90 points (89.2) per game on the road. I expect their offense to cool off here and for the final combined score to stay beneath the number. *10 blue chip |
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02-06-13 | Baylor v. Oklahoma State -7 | Top | 67-69 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 32 m | Show |
I'm playing on OKLAHOMA STATE. As is the case for most teams, homecourt is significant for both these clubs.
The Cowboys are a strong team, particularly at home. They began the season by winning their first five, before suffering a road loss at Virginia Tech. They responded with five more victories en route to a 10-1 start and a national ranking. Early wins came against the likes of NC State and Tennessee. The Cowboys then suffered a tough 1-point home loss against Gonzaga. That led to a stretch where they lost three straight road games, a home win against TCU mixed in between. The last of those road losses came at Baylor, against these same Bears. The Cowboys have since responded with three straight big wins and find themselves back in the Top 25. Most recently they won at Kansas. Playing with "revenge" and looking to prove that they belong in the rankings, I expect a highly motivated effort from the Cowboys here. Note that Oklahoma State is 11-1 at home, 7-4 ATS in lined games. The Bears remain relatively tough at home but mediocre on the road. They come in off an 8-point loss at Iowa State, their second straight. Prior to that, they were upset by Oklahoma. This isn't one of their better roles as we find them at only 7-12 ATS the last 19 times that they were listed as road underdogs in the 6.5 to 9 range. While they were beaten by a strong Baylor team here last season, the Cowboys are still 13-2 the last 15 times that they were a host in this series. Its payback time at the Gallagher-Iba Arena tonight. *10 Personal Favorite |
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02-05-13 | South Carolina v. Kentucky -17.5 | Top | 55-77 | Win | 100 | 14 h 20 m | Show |
I'm playing on KENTUCKY. The Wildcats may not be as dominant as usual but I still believe they've got more than enough to lay a beating on South Carolina.
The Gamecocks are off a double-digit home loss against Georgia and have now dropped six of their last eight. In the game against the Bulldogs, they shot 35.8% from the field, while watching Georgia connect at a 58% rate. Off an OT win on Saturday and now stepping down in class, I feel the Wildcats are ready to explode against a team they've dominated. The Wildcats are 5-0 the last five meetings with the Gamecocks and 46-10 all-time. With an O/U line in the high 130s, note that the Wildcats are 23-15-1 ATS (36-3 SU) the last 39 times that they played a home game with an O/U line in the 135 to 139.5 range. Note that the Gamecocks are 0-5 SU/ATS the last five times that they played a road game with an O/U line in that range. Kentucky's last three wins against the Gamecocks have come by 24, 15 and 31 points, an average of greater than 23. I look for them to win this one by 20+ too. *10 Personal Favorite |
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02-05-13 | Atlanta Hawks v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 182.5 | Top | 103-114 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
I'm playing on Indiana and Atlanta to finish UNDER the total. The Pacers are off a high-scoring game last. I'm expecting a considerably lower-scoring affair this evening.
Prior to allowing 101 last night, the Pacers had held their previous two opponents to 89 and 79 points, respectively. For the season, they're allowing a mere 87.5 points per game here, while holding visiting teams to only 40.9% shooting from the field. The UNDER is 13-9 here on the season and 17-10 when the Pacers have been listed as favorites. Note that the Pacers, who are playing their fourth straight home game, have also seen the UNDER go 11-3-1 the last 15 times that they played three or more consecutive home games. (During that stretch, the UNDER is also 32-24-1 when the Pacers played the second of b2b games.) The Hawks managed a mere 76 points last time out, falling 93-76 vs. Chicago. That was on the heels of a 93-92 victory over Toronto. Only two of their last 13 opponents have reached triple-digits in points and one of those only did so thanks to over-time. Note that, unlike many teams, the Hawks actually allow fewer points on the road than they do at home. The UNDER is 13-8-1 when they play away from Atlanta, including 2-0 when they played a road game with an O/U line in the 180 to 184.5 range. Going back further finds the UNDER at 15-5 the last 20 times that the Hawks played a road game with an O/U line in that range. It should also be noted that the UNDER is a profitable 56-33-1 the last 90 times that Atlanta was listed as an underdog. While the last meeting was high-scoring, this season's first meeting between these teams produced only 175 points. I feel that the number, which climbed from its opener, is generous and I look for a similar type of game this evening. *Eastern Conf. TOY |
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02-04-13 | Seton Hall +16.5 v. Pittsburgh | Top | 46-56 | Win | 100 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
I'm playing on SETON HALL. I respect the Panthers. In fact, they've covered three straight games and I've been on them in every single one of those games. However, I feel that they're laying a few too many points here and that they're in a bit of a difficult scheduling spot.
Off big televised games at Louisville and vs. Syracuse and with Cincinnati, Marquette and Notre Dame on deck, I feel that the Panthers may be ripe for a bit of a letdown. While I did back the Panthers when they blew out Depaul a couple of weeks ago, it should be noted that was the only one of Pittsburgh's last seven games which resulted in a victory of greater than 15 points. Speaking of that Depaul game, the Panthers, 4-9 ATS the last 13 times that they were favored at home by greater than a dozen points, were actually laying a (slightly) larger number for that game than they are here. Yet, Seton Hall is a significantly better team than Depaul, at least in my opinion. While the Blue Demons are 10-11, the Pirates are 13-9, including a victory at Depaul the only time those teams faced each other. True, the Pirates have lost a few in a row. However, two of those losses came by six or fewer points and they barely missed covering in each of those. The Pirates have only lost by greater than 15 points twice all season and just once in their past seven games. Note that the Pirates are 3-1 ATS the last couple of seasons after failing to cover three in a row and 7-2 ATS after three or more consecutive SU losses. Last year's game was decided by seven points (73-66 Seton Hall) and I won't be surprised when this one is also decided by single-digits. *10 best bet |
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02-04-13 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Minnesota Timberwolves -2.5 | Top | 100-98 | Loss | -113 | 13 h 26 m | Show |
I'm playing on MINNESOTA. The T-Wolves come in playing with "double-revenge." Not only did the Blazers beat them at Portland back in November, the Blazers also knocked off the T-Wolves here at Minnesota last month.
When these teams mets last month, the Blazers were playing arguably their best basketball of the season, as they were in the middle of a stretch which saw them win four straight six of seven. They've since cooled off a little though, winning just four of 12 games. Admittedly, the T-Wolves haven't been too good. I believe that they may have turned the corner a little in their last game though, a 115-86 blowout win over the Hornets, a team which had quietly been playing quite well. Luke Ridnour had this to say about the big win: "To have a blowout win is something that our team needed at this point. Hopefully we can build on it.'' Overall, the T-Wolves are 12-9 at home while the Blazers are 7-15 on the road, 0-4 their last four. Even factoring in last months upset against Portland here, the T-Wolves are 9-6 ATS (11-4 SU) when laying points this season. That includes a 4-0 ATS mark when favored at home by three or fewer points. I expect a highly motivated effort to lead to another win and cover tonight. *10 Personal Favorite |
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02-04-13 | Charlotte Bobcats +13.5 v. Miami Heat | Top | 94-99 | Win | 100 | 13 h 4 m | Show |
I'm playing on CHARLOTTE. Obviously, I can't claim that the Bobcats are as good as the Heat. However, I can say that they're getting a large handful of points and that I feel this is a good spot for them.
The Bobcats had last night off. They're playing the second last leg of a 5-game road trip, one which hasn't gone particularly well. They're beyond the point of trying to have a winning record on road trips - but the Bobcats generally do try and salvage something from each of their excursions away from Charlotte. Going into Miami and playing the champs tough would accomplish that goal. Note that the Bobcats are 26-16 ATS the last 42 times that they were listed as road underdogs in the 12.5 to 15 point range, going a lucrative 13-5 ATS their last 18 in that situation. It should be mentioned that Charlotte appears likely to be without Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, who left last game with a concussion. The Bobcats didn't fare well after he went down but they know he's going to be OK now though and have had a chance to prepare for his potential or probable absence. The Heat are off a game in Canada last night. A look at the last nine times that they played the second of back to back games, dating back to last season, reveals that the Heat went a respectable 5-4 ATS and 8-1 SU. However, an even closer look shows that NONE of those nine games resulted in a victory of greater than 13 points. The Heat did lose by 19 but their victories came by 9, 13, 5, 3, 3, 9, 11, and 3 points. (That's an average of seven per game.) Even off a cover last night, the Heat are still only 7-11 ATS their last 18. They've lost two of three and only two of their last six games has resulted in a double-digit win. I look for them to receive a tougher test than most will be expecting. *10 best bet |
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02-04-13 | Charlotte Bobcats v. Miami Heat OVER 199 | Top | 94-99 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
I'm playing on Miami/Charlotte to finish OVER the total. I played on the Heat to finish below the total just last night. However, that was a road game against a Toronto team which had been playing sound defense, while struggling to score. Now, the Heat are back home, laying double-digits.
While the champs probably feel very confident every time they took the floor, they tend to feel "extra confident" when favored by so many points. That can lead to them looking to dominate offensively while occasionally playing a little less intensely on the defensive side of the ball. That has led to the OVER going 16-7 the past couple of seasons, when the Heat have been favored at home by greater than a dozen points. The Bobcats may have seen their last three games finish below the total. However, that shouldn't be cause for concern and has actually helped in keeping this O/U line a little lower than it could have been. Note that Charlotte's most recent game still finished with 204 combined points. Its also worth pointing out that the OVER is 16-7 the last 23 times that they'd seen their previous three or more games dip below the posted total. The earlier meeting between these teams stayed below the total. However, it still finished with 197 points, so wasn't that low-scoring and only did so due to the O/U line being in the 200 range. This number is slightly lower. That makes it worth noting that the OVER is 3-1 when the Bobcats played a road game with an O/U line in the 195 to 199.5 range. When throwing in the fact that games here are averaging 202.9 points, I feel the number is providing strong value and that it will prove too low. *10 Blue Chip |
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02-04-13 | Fairfield -6.5 v. Siena | Top | 64-54 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
I'm playing on FAIRFIELD. The Saints used to be class of this league. Those days are gone now though. Those days are gone now though. Averaging less than 60 points per game, the Saints are only 6-16 overall, going 7-11 ATS.
The Stags, on the other hand, are a fairly respectable 13-10. That includes a perfect 5-0 record (3-2 ATS) when facing a team which scores 64 or fewer points per game. They're also 3-0 their last three, two of those victories coming by double-digits. While they have managed a couple of recent wins against lesser quality opponents, the Saints are only 2-7 ATS (2-9 SU) against teams with a wining record. They're also only 7-13 their last 20 off a conference win. The only previous time that they won two in a row this season, they stepped up in class to face Niagara and lost by 17. Stepping up in class to face Fairfield, I expect them to receive another dose of reality. *9 personal favorite |
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02-03-13 | Miami Heat v. Toronto Raptors UNDER 195.5 | Top | 100-85 | Win | 100 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
I'm playing on Miami and Toronto to finish UNDER the total. With Rudy Gay in their lineup, the new look Raptors played dominant defense en route to a 98-73 victory over the Clippers. Obviously, the Raptors aren't likely to hold the defending champs to less than 75 points. However, I do expect them to be much better defensively than they were in the last meeting.
Since these teams played an overtime game against each other on 1/23, the Raptors have held four of five opponents to double-digits. (Only Golden State scored more.) For the season, the Raptors are allowing 95.2 ppg on this floor, considerably less than they permit on the road. The Heat allow roughly the same amount of points on the road that they do at home but they do score considerably less. For the season, the UNDER is 12-10 in Miami road games and 14-9 in Toronto home games, a combined 26-19 (57.8%.) Two of Miami's last three visits here have fallen below the total. I feel that this number will again prove to be a little on the high side. *10 best bet |
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02-03-13 | Marquette v. Louisville -10.5 | Top | 51-70 | Win | 100 | 15 h 31 m | Show |
I'm playing on LOUISVILLE. Some of you will likely recall that I successfully played against the Cardinals in their most recent game. Hosting Pittsburgh, the Cardinals were mired in a 3-game losing streak. Yet, they were still laying six points. I noted that I felt the Panthers had an excellent shot at an upset and also that I felt Louisville would be happy just to eke out a win.
While it wasn't easy, the Cardinals did indeed manage to eke out a 64-61 win over the Panthers. Now, with their losing streak snapped, I feel that they're ready for bigger and better things ... a blowout win. Speaking of blowouts, the Carinal have won three of the last four in the series and their last two victories have come by 13 and 25 points. The Golden Eagles are great at home but only mediocre on the road. They're definitely not slouches and they have been competitive. However, I feel that they're going to be in over their heads against what I expect to be a highly determined Louisville team. Back in their groove, note that the Cardinals are 22-10 ATS the past few seasons, when off a conference win. During that time, they're 4-2 ATS as home favorites in the 9.5 to 12 range. I expect them to improve on those stats in convincing fashion here. *10 personal favorite |
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02-02-13 | Utah Jazz v. Portland Trail Blazers OVER 191.5 | Top | 99-105 | Win | 100 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
I'm playing on Portland and Utah to finish OVER the total. These teams played a very low-scoring game against each other, at Utah, last night. That's helped bring down the O/U line by a few points. I feel that's giving us some added value and I'm expecting a considerably higher-scoring contest.
The Jazz have seen the OVER go 29-23 the past couple of seasons when playing the second of back-to-back games, the Blazers 28-24. Games are averaged 195.9 points this season. The Jazz have seen their road games average 196.8. While games between these teams at Utah have indeed been low-scoring, games at Portland have not been. In fact, the OVER is a perfect 4-0 the past couple of seasons when the Jazz have visited the Rose Garden. Look for this one to also prove higher-scoring than most will be expecting. *10 blue chip |
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02-02-13 | Michigan v. Indiana -4.5 | Top | 73-81 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
I'm playing on INDIANA. Obviously these teams are both very good. I like what the Hoosiers bring to the table a little more though and I feel that homecourt will prove significant.
Michigan averages a healthy 74.6 points per game on the road. However, Indiana averages a whopping 87.3 at home. Michigan allows just 63.5 ppg on the road. However, Indiana permits a paltry 58.6 at home. I feel that the Hoosiers have a little more to prove and I expect them to play with a chip on their shoulder, en route to a statement win and cover. *10 Big Ten GOM |
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02-02-13 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Cleveland Cavaliers +10.5 | Top | 110-115 | Win | 100 | 5 h 21 m | Show |
I'm playing on CLEVELAND. Obviously the Thunder are an excellent team. However, that doesn't mean that they can't over-valued. In this case, I feel they're laying a little too large a number.
While the Cavs are off a loss vs. the Pistons last night, note that they're a solid 8-3 ATS when off a divisional game. They're also 4-1 ATS the last five times that they played the second of back-to-back games, most recently an outright win at Toronto. The Thunder are just 8-15-2 ATS (10-15 SU) the last 25 times that they played a road game with an O/U line in the 200 to 204.5 range. I expect them to have their hands full here. *10 best bet |
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02-01-13 | Dallas Mavericks v. Phoenix Suns -2.5 | Top | 109-99 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
I'm playing on PHOENIX. The Suns come in with double-revenge, having lost to these same Mavericks twice already this season. Although they haven't typically been too good in the "revenge role" in recent years, I feel that this will be prove to be an excellent spot for the Suns to get some payback.
While Phoenix had last night off, the Mavs are off a hard-fought "emotional" loss at Golden State. Playing their third game in four nights, they'll be without Kaman and it appears likely that they'll also be without Nowitzki. Note that the Mavs have won just three of 10 games, when playing the second of back-to-back games. Note that ALL seven losses came by at least four points, six of them by eight or more. The Suns have quietly played well at home recently. Their last two games here have seen them beat the Lakers and the Clippers, both wins coming by a minimum of five points. With the schedule in their favor, I expect them to step up with another big effort, en route to a win and cover. *10 Personal Favorite |
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02-01-13 | New Orleans Hornets v. Denver Nuggets UNDER 204 | Top | 98-113 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
I'm playing on New Orleans and Denver to finish UNDER the total. These teams have each seen their last couple of games finish above the total. Those results have worked in our favor, helping to provide us with a generously high O/U line. I believe it will prove to be too high.
Yes, Denver games are averaging a high 204.5 points . However, New Orleans games are averaging only 191. While the Hornets haven't been that great defensively of late - and slowing down Denver is admittedly difficult, I do expect the struggling Hornets to really try and emphasize improved defensive play here. After a game against run-and-gun Houston, the Nuggets should also be happy to try and shut down a less explosive offense. The earlier meeting between these teams, also played here at Denver, had an O/U line of only 194. It finished with just 186 points. In fact, four of five meetings between these teams, since the beginning of 2012, have produced 186 or fewer combined points. None of those games had an O/U line of greater than 195.5. As noted, we're getting considerably more points to work with here. Note that the UNDER is 5-1 the last six times that the Hornets played a road game with an O/U line in the 200 to 204.5 range. During the same stretch, the Nuggets have seen the UNDER go 13-8 when playing a home game with an O/U line in the 200 to 204.5 range. I expect those stats to improve this evening. *10 blue chip |
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02-01-13 | Youngstown State v. Detroit -11 | Top | 77-88 | Push | 0 | 13 h 14 m | Show |
I'm playing on DETROIT. The Penguins enter on a bit of a roll including an impressive win over Valparaiso on Wednesday. I expect reality to set in this evening though.
The Titans already crushed the Penguins by a score of 101-60 - and that was at Youngstown State. Naturally, the Penguins would like to get some payback from that loss. However, wanting and actually doing are entirely different matters. The Titans average 78.6 points per game and more than 80 in games against other Horizon teams. That's by far the most in the conference. That number climbs to 83.7 at home. As it was on their own homecourt, I believe that's going to make it tough for the Penguins, who average 67.5 on the road, to keep up. While the Penguins have won just 12 of their last 40 on the road, the Tiants are 34-10 at home during the same stretch. The Titans beat the Penguins by 17 in a neutral court game last March. However, they probably still haven't forgotten that the Penguins did upset them here early last season. I expect them to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way here, en route to another double-digit win. *10 Personal Favorite |
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02-01-13 | Sacramento Kings v. Philadelphia 76ers OVER 195.5 | Top | 80-89 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
I'm playing on Sacramento and Philadelphia to finish OVER the total. The 76'ers have been a very profitable (17-7) "over" team at home this season. That goes hand in hand with a 14-5 "over" mark when listed as favorites. Facing a porous Sacramento defense that they scored 112 against here last season, I expect those stats to improve this evening.
The Kings aren't a good defensive team. For the season, they're allowing more than 103 ppg. Over their last five games, they're allowing an average of 105 per game, while watching opposing teams hit 50.1% of their shots. While the 76'ers held Washington to 84 last time out, they'd allowed five of their previous seven opponents to hit triple-digits. Note that the OVER is 4-2 when they were off a game in which they allowed 85 or less. Although they managed only 81 points at Boston last time out, the Kings typically do score some points. They average 96.6 per game. Note that the OVER is a lucrative 16-6 the last 22 times that they failed to reach the 85-point mark in their previous game. The OVER is a combined 25-17 when these teams have been involved in "non-conference" action. I'm expecting more of the same here. *10 Non-Conf. Best Bet |
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01-31-13 | Dallas Mavericks v. Golden State Warriors UNDER 206 | Top | 97-100 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
I'm playing on Dallas and Golden State to finish UNDER the total. Both teams can put up points and both have been on a run of "overs" recently. Those results have helped to provide us with a generously high O/U line. I believe it will prove too high.
Note that the O/U line was 200 in this season's earlier meeting. The last meeting here at Oakland had an O/U line of 197. We're getting quite a few more points to work with here and that could well come in handy. While Dallas road games are averaging 202.8 ppg, Golden State home games are averaging 197.3. While the Mavs do allow a high 103 ppg, the Warriors have seen the UNDER go 18-11 the last 29 times that they played a team which allows 99 or more during the second half of the season and 17-12 the last 29 times that they played a team which scores 99 or more during the second half of the season. Although much will be made of the status of Curry and some of the other banged-up Golden State players, I'm mostly concerned with the fact that Bogut is expected to play. The big Aussie is an excellent defender and makes the Warriors a better defensive team. When Bogut did return to the lineup Monday (he sat out Tuesday as it was a b2b) teammate David Lee commented this about Bogut's impact: ''I felt like I became a better defender tonight because he's constantly talking to me and constantly rotating to get my back." While I do respect both offenses, with Bogut anchoring the defense, I look for this one to prove lower-scoring than expected. *10 Blue Chip |