Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-14-16 | Celtics v. Spurs UNDER 201 | Top | 101-108 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 50 m | Show |
I'm playing on Boston and SA to finish UNDER the total 10* TOW. These teams played a relatively high-scoring game against each other at Boston a few weeks ago, the Spurs winning 109-103. With the venue shifting to San Antonio, I expect this evening's rematch to prove considerably lower-scoring. The Celtics jumped off to a double-digit lead out of the gate in the 11/25 game. That forced the Spurs to come back. With Isaiah Thomas leading the way with 24 points and eight assists, Boston hit triple-digits in scoring. That, in turn, meant that the Spurs needed to put up a big number in order to win. The Spurs got a great game from their bench and hit a higher percentage of their three points than they normally do. Things set up differently though, as Thomas is expected to be out again for the Celtics, which is significant. They've managed just 94 and 96 points their past two games without him, each of those games falling below the number by double-digits. Games here at San Antonio are averaging just 195.6 points on the season. Even with the previous meeting finishing above the total, the Celtics have still seen the UNDER go 7-2 against teams from the Western Conference. They've also seen the UNDER go 6-2-1 the last nine times that they attempted to avenge an earlier loss, 3-0 the last three times that they attempted to avenge an earlier home loss. I expect those stats to improve, as this evening's game proves lower-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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12-14-16 | Kings +9.5 v. Rockets | Top | 98-132 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 26 m | Show |
I'm playing on SACRAMENTO 10* BEST BET. While I respect the Rockets, I believe this line will prove to be a little too high. Yes, Houston has been winning. However, lets keep in mind that three of the Rockets' past five victories have come by four points or less. As hot as they've been, only three of their past eight games resulted in a double-digit win. Off a 116-92 blowout of the Lakers, the Kings come in with some positive momentum. While the wins haven't been there, they've quietly been very competitive. In fact, only two of their past 18 games resulted in a loss of greater than 10 points. One of those two losses came against these same Rockets, a 13-point loss on 11/25. Look for the Kings, who are only getting outscored by an average of 103.2 to 101.2 on the road this season, to be more competitive in this evening's rematch, giving their hosts all they can handle and improving to 6-3 ATS the last nine times that they attempted to avenge an earlier home loss. |
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12-14-16 | UL-Lafayette v. Georgia -9 | Top | 60-73 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
I'm playing on GEORGIA 10* PERS FAV. A few weeks ago, the Bulldogs beat the Rajin' Cajuns by 14 points. While that 11/19 game was played on the football field, I expect the Bulldogs to win this evening's basketball game by a similar margin. The Cajuns bring a decent record to the table. However, the only quality team which they faced was Minnesota and they lost that one by double-digits, failing to cover as +8.5 point underdogs. Georgia has struggled against top tier opponents but has taken care of lesser ranked teams. Three of the Bulldogs' five victories, including each of their last two, have come by double-digits. With an O/U line in the 150s, this game is projected to play at a fairly fast tempo and to be quite high-scoring. That figures to favor Georgia. The Dawgs are 3-1 ATS (4-0 SU) the past couple of seasons when playing a game with an O/U line in the 150s and that includes a 2-0 SU/ATS mark when playing a game here at home with a line in the 150 to 154.5 range. During the same period, the Cajuns are just 7-12 ATS when playing a game with an O/U line in the 150s. The Bulldogs, who lost to Marquette on 12/4, are 2-0 SU/ATS the past couple of seasons when playing with seven or more day's rest. They've responded to each of their previous losses with a double-digit win in their next game and I look for them to do so again here. |
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12-13-16 | UC Riverside v. Santa Clara -5 | Top | 53-77 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
I'm playing on SANTA CLARA 10* PERS FAV. The Broncos have gotten off to a tough start. Playing at home, against a UC Riverside team which has been terrible on the road, provides the perfect opportunity to build some positive momentum. In four road games, the Highlanders have been outscored by an average score of 82-60. The Broncos actually do bring some positive momentum into tonight's game, as they just beat up on a weak team (Cal State East Bay) by a 75-50 margin. Delivering another big win against a Highlanders team which beat them by 14 last season figures to be more rewarding. Last season's game at Riverside came early on in the year and an inexperienced Broncos team was still learning how to play together. I believe that the Broncos are catching the Highlanders at the right time this season. UC Riverside, which lost by 42 points last time out and 18 the time before that, hasn't played for two weeks due to its exam break. Look for the Broncos to take advantage of the venue and schedule, avenging last season's loss in convincing fashion and improving to 6-2 ATS their last eight lined games, after failing to cover their previous three or more. |
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12-13-16 | Knicks v. Suns OVER 220 | Top | 111-113 | Win | 100 | 25 h 1 m | Show |
I'm playing on Phoenix and NY to finish OVER the total 8* SHOOTOUTOUT. This is a very high O/U number. However, given the matchup and the way that these teams are playing right now, I don't believe that it'll be high enough. The Suns last game produced 239 points. While its true that game went to OT, there were still 220 points scored in regulation. The Suns' previous game finished with 234 points, all of them coming in regulation. They've given up 107 or more points in seven straight games and allow an average of 113.3 ppg on the season. Six of those games produced a minimum of 216 points. Some of those games came against teams which like to play at a slower pace than the Suns do, yet the games were still high-scoring. Tonight, the Suns will face their former coach and a Knicks team that also loves to push the pace. Carmello Anthony had this to say. "We want to play fast ... " Note that Knicks have allowed 10 of their last 11 opponents, including each of the last four, to hit triple-digits in scoring. They're allowing an average of 109.2 ppg on the road. Their last game produced 230 combined points. With a 15-9 record, note that the Knicks will be facing a Suns team which has seen all eight of its games, against teams with winning records, finish above the number. Both teams figure to want this one. The Suns don't want their old coach to come in and beat them. Meanwhile, the Knicks don't want their new coach to lose against the team that fired him. As Jennings mentioned: "Every game's a must-win. But for Jeff, for sure, we want to win one for Jeff in Phoenix." I expect that to translate to an offensive affair, both teams putting up a big number and the final combined score finishing above the total. |
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12-13-16 | Morehead State +3 v. Eastern Washington | Top | 86-88 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
I'm playing on MOREHEAD STATE 10* BEST BET. While the (Morehead State) Eagles have admittedly gotten off to a tough start, I believe this is a case of getting points with the better team. True, Eastern Washington has been winning while Morehead State has been losing. However, thats largely been a matter of the quality of opposition. The (Morehead State) Eagles, who have lost six straight, haven't lost seven in a row since 2006-2007. Preston Spralin, interim coach, noted "Its the great thing about college basketball, you don't have time to feel sorry for yourself ... " With an O/U line in the low 150s, this is projected to be one of the highest-scoring games on Tuesday's card. That figures to suit Morehead State just fine as its a perfect 7-0 ATS the last seven times that it played a game with an O/U line in the 150s. I expect those stats to improve this evening. |
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12-13-16 | Wolves v. Bulls -7 | Top | 99-94 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
I'm playing on CHICAGO 10* MAIN EVENT. I successfully played on the T-Wolves in their last game. However, that was a much different setup from this one. Not only were the T-Wolves playing at home, but they were getting double-digits by the oddsmaker. Also, they were catching their oponent playing the second of b2b games and in a four games in five nights situation. They covered, but still lost by eight. Things set up differently here. This time, while still underdogs, the T-Wolves aren't getting nearly as many points. They're also on the road, where they really struggle and facing a Chicago team which is well-rested. Note that the Bulls are 19-11 ATS (22-8 SU) the last 30 times that the played with two day's rest in between games, 2-0 SU/ATS already this season. Those wins both came by double-digits, too. The T-Wolves, who have lost four straight and eight of nine overall, are 3-9 SU/ATS on the road, getting outscored by a 109.8 to 103.5 margin. The Hawks, on the other hand, have won seven of 10 at home, outscoring teams by a 105.6 to 99.6 average. I expect them to win by more than that margin here. |
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12-12-16 | South Carolina v. Seton Hall -1.5 | Top | 64-67 | Win | 100 | 13 h 26 m | Show |
I'm playing on SETON HALL 10* GOW. With a top 25 ranking and an undefeated record, South Carolina is certainly off to an impressive start. I believe that the battle-tested Pirates are favored for good reason though. The Pirates have indeed played a very tough non-conference schedule, traveling all over the place while taking on a number of top teams. By comparison, the Gamecocks have played all but one of their games at home. I expect the Pirates' experience playing away from home to serve them well for tonight's big game at MSG. It should certainly help matters that the Gamecocks will be without starting guard Sindari Thornwell, as he was suspended last week. As the Gamecocks haven't played since 12/4, this will be just their second game without him. While they were able to beat (they didn't cover) lowly FIU without him, Thornwell is a senior who leads the teams in both scoring and rebounding. He'll be missed against a Seton Hall team which averages better than 78 ppg. The Pirates, who have allowed just 57 points in consecutive games, are now 13-3 ATS (14-3 SU) the past 2+ seasons, after allowing 60 or fewer points in their previous game. I expect them to improve on those stats tonight. |
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12-12-16 | Wizards -1 v. Heat | Top | 101-112 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 32 m | Show |
I'm playing on WASHINGTON 10* PERS FAV. The Heat upset the Wizards at Washington last month. I expect the Wizards to return the favor tonight. The Heat entered the 11/19 meeting at Miami off a 23-point victory and off of three straight ATS wins. Things set up differently now as the Heat are off five straight losses and aren't quite as healthy as they were a month ago. Homecourt has not been an advantage to the Heat either; they're 5-9 on the road but just 2-8 here at Miami. (That includes a 0-4 SU/ATS mark as home underdogs of three or fewer points.) The Wizards, who are a solid 50-38 ATS when playing with 'revenge' the past couple of seasons, entered the earlier meeting having lost three of their previous four. They're starting to finally play better though, having won three of their past four. As many of you know, I've successfully backed them twice in a row. This is another winnable game that they can't afford to squander and I'm going back to the well with them one more time. |
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12-11-16 | UC-Irvine v. St. Mary's -18 | Top | 53-84 | Win | 100 | 25 h 39 m | Show |
I'm playing on ST. MARY'S 10* PERS FAV. Given their inexperience and the fact that their star player has been out all season, the Anteaters got off to a pretty solid start. However, that inexperience is starting to catch up to them and I feel that they're in the wrong place, at the wrong time. I said the same thing when they visited Arizona last Tuesday. That was the last time that the Anteaters faced a quality opponent and they got blown out by 22 points. Off their first loss of the season, an unlikely 65-51 loss against Texas Arlington, the Gaels figure to be in a foul mood. With the exception of a 4-point road win at Dayton, every one of the Gaels' wins has been by double-digits this season. While UC Irvine averages 57.7 ppg on the road, St. Mary's averages 80.7 ppg here at home. Look for the Gaels to bounce back with a blowout win, improving to 9-3 ATS the last dozen times that they'd been held to 60 or fewer points in their previous game. |
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12-10-16 | Bucks v. Wizards -4 | Top | 105-110 | Win | 100 | 9 h 37 m | Show |
I'm playing on WASHINGTON 10* PERS FAV. The Wizards have had their way with the Bucks here the past couple of seasons. With the schdule in their favor, I expect them to have the advantage again this evening. While the Wizards had yesterday off, the Bucks were busy losing at Atlanta. Thats noteworthy as they haven't fared well when playing the second of b2b games. In fact, the Bucks are 0-3 SU/ATS in that sitiation so far this season, losing by 23 at Miami (also off a game vs. Atlanta) by 15 at Detroit and by 11 at Dallas. Three tries, three double-digit losses. Look for the Wizards, who know they'll have a home-and-home series with these same Bucks later this month, to take care of business on their home floor, improving to 4-1 ATS the last five times that they were listed as home favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range. |
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12-10-16 | La Salle v. Georgetown -4 | Top | 78-93 | Win | 100 | 19 h 48 m | Show |
'm playing on GEORGETOWN 10* ME. A poor start at the betting window for the Hoyas has resulted in a very low line for this afternoon's game at Maui. I believe that low line is providing us with excellent value. With their wins coming against Bucknell, Lehigh, Drexel and Delaware, none of them by more than 11 points, the Explorers have to defeat a strong opponent. Losing against Villanova was obviously expected and even the loss at Temple wasn't too bad. But this La Salle team also lost a home game against Texas Southern from the SWAC Conference. Though they haven't been covering, off three straight wins, the Hoyas have started to put it together. Note that all five of this season's victories have come by at least four points. I expect them to finish on top once again, covering the small number along the way. |
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12-09-16 | Georgia Southern v. Minnesota -12.5 | Top | 49-86 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
I'm playing on MINNESOTA 10* MAIN EVENT. I believe that there's a considerable talent gap between these teams. Playing on the "Big Ten Network" on a "stand-alone" Friday game (today's other two games both start earlier) that Pitino will be happy to run up the score, showing the "world" that this year's team is the "real deal." Much stronger than last season, the Gophers are 8-1 so far. They've beaten teams like Vanderbilt, Arkansas and St. John's. The Gophers, 3-0 SU/ATS against Sun Belt teams the past couple of seasons, are undefeated on this floor. Their lone loss came at Florida State. While the Gophers are allowing an average of only 62.2 ppg their last five, while holding opponents to a mere 35.9% from the field. Despite playing against lesser competition, the Eagles are allowing 74.2 ppg their last five, opposing teams hitting 47.3% of their shots. Look for the Gophers to flex their muscles in front of national audience, another dominant defensive effort leading to a convincing win and cover. |
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12-09-16 | Pacers v. Mavs +5 | Top | 103-111 | Win | 100 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
I'm playing on DALLAS 10* BEST BET. I successfully played on the Pacers when these teams met way back on 10/26, just my second play of the season. While Indiana did win by nine, it was actually somewhat of a "fortunate" win. The Pacers had blown numerous opportunities to put the Mavs away and found themselves in a dogfight down the stretch. Fortunately, they pulled away for the cover in OT. While its true that the Mavs are dealing with some injuries at the moment, I like the fact that they're getting roughly as many points tonight as they were for that game at Indiana. Venue does matter to both these teams. Though the Mavs admittedly haven't been great here at Dallas, they do have three times as many victories here as they do on the road. Meanwhile, while they're a solid 8-4 at home, the Pacers are only 3-7 away from Indiana. The Pacers are playing the final leg of a 5-game road trip tonight. Tomorrow night, they host a Portland team which just hammered them last Wednesday, the first game of their trip. That being the case, it may be easy to look past Dallas, a team they've handled. While they have lost b2b games here, the Mavs had won two of their previous three home games. Given the fact that they get outscored by an average of 115.7 to 105.7 on the road, just asking the Pacers to win is asking a lot. I'll gladly take the generous points but I like the Mavs' chances of winning outright. |
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12-08-16 | Nuggets v. Wizards -6 | Top | 85-92 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
I'm playing on WASHINGTON 10* PERS FAV. This is a tough scheduling spot for the Nuggets. Last night, they fell behind big (68-52 at halftime) at Brooklyn, fought hard to get back, but ultimately lost. While not all the Nuggets' starters logged big minutes - due a frustrated Malone mixing up the lineups - it was still the type of game that figures to be difficult to immediately bounce back from. Not only will the Nuggets be playing the second of b2b games but they're also playing their third game in four days and their fifth game in the past seven. The Wizards, who had last night off, have played one less game during that seven game period and that figures to make a difference down the stretch tonight. Note that the Nuggets are 0-3 the last three times (10-31 L41) that they played the second of b2b games. All three of those losses came by a minimum of seven points and they came by an average of 13. Off a loss to the Magic last time out and falling further in the standings, the Wizards can't afford to squander this very winnable game. I expect their best effort and look for them to improve to 3-1 ATS as home favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range. |
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12-08-16 | Fordham v. St. John's -5 | Top | 62-90 | Win | 100 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
I'm playing on ST. JOHN'S 10* PERS FAV. These schools are separated by only about 15 miles. Dating back to 1909, they've faced each other 87 times. The Red Storm are a commanding 25-3 the last 28 of those and 65-22 overall. Last year, however, was different. While St John's was inexperienced, the Rams had an experienced team, one which was sick of losing to its "rival." The Rams didn't just earn a rare win in the series, they hammered the Red Storm by a 73-57 margin. The fact that Neubauer left the Rams' starters in and continued to play "pressure defense," after the outcome was already decided, didn't sit too well with Chris Mullin. While Marcus LoVett appears unlikely to go, playing at home, the revenge-minded Red Storm should have more than enough to take care of a Fordham team which isn't nearly as strong as last season. The Rams have lost three straight, those losses coming against the likes of Texas Arlington, Sacred Heart and Harvard. They managed a mere 52 points last time out and have been outscored by an average of 80-55.5 in two road games (0-2 SU/ATS) overall. The Red Storm got off to an ugly start but have started to play better. They're off b2b wins, averaging 85.5 points in those victories. Payback time. |
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12-07-16 | Warriors v. Clippers +4.5 | Top | 115-98 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
I'm playing on LA 10* ESPN MAIN EVENT. This is the first of four meetings between these teams this season. Both teams will be hungry. The Warriors want to prove they're still the best in the west while the Clippers want to prove that this year will be different. The last meeting between these teams here at LA saw the Warriors, who were laying -4 points, win by three. Another game decided in the final possession won't surprise. As good as the Warriors have been on the road - and they have been outstanding - the Clippers have arguably been very nearly as good here at LA. GS has outscored teams by 12.7 ppg on the road. LA has outscored teams by 12.6 ppg here at home. While the Warriors are obviously very dangerous offensively, the Clippers are among the best defensive teams in the league. Note that while the Warriors are just 5-4 ATS in road games with an O/U line of 210 or greater, the Clippers are 2-0 ATS when playing a home game with an O/U line of 210 or greater. The schedule sets up favorably for the Clippers. They've had the past two days off and they also get the next two off. The Warriors, on the other hand, have had one day off and play tomorrow. I'm taking the points. |
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12-07-16 | TCU v. SMU -4 | Top | 59-74 | Win | 100 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
I'm playing on SMU 10* GOW. The Horned Frogs come in with a perfect record, undefeated under coach Jamie Dixon. However, I believe the Mustangs are favored for good reason, as I expect TCU to suffer its first loss. Over the past 2+ seasons, the Mustangs are 37-3 SU on this floor, 27-3 SU in "lined" games. That includes a modest 3-2 ATS mark as home favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range and a perfect 5-0 ATS mark when playing a home game with an O/U line in the 130 to 134.5 range. They're undefeated at home so far this season, outscoring teams by an average score of 74 to 53.6 here. The Frogs, on the other hand, are 1-3 ATS as road underdogs in the +3.5 to +6 range, the past 2+ seasons. During that stretch, they're just 4-18 SU on the road overall. They've only played one "true" road game this season and that resulted in an ATS loss at UNLV. The Frogs deserve plenty of credit for their perfect start. Beating Washington and winning at UNLV are both worthy accomplishments. That said, this is the Frogs toughest test yet. They've got a number of freshman in the lineup (even Dixon has acknowledged the team is a work in progress) and I don't feel they're going to be quite up for it. Look for SMU, which has added forward Semi Ojeleye (transfer from Duke) who is averaging a team best 17.2 points to go along with 7.7 rebounds, to win its fifth straight in this series, picking up the cover along the way. |
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12-07-16 | Pistons v. Hornets -5.5 | Top | 77-87 | Win | 100 | 26 h 43 m | Show |
I'm playing on CHARLOTTE 10* PERS FAV. The Hornets were embarrassed by these same Pistons here just over a week ago. Tonight should provide an excellent opportunity for some payback. For the game here last Tuesday, the Hornets were off a game the previous night and playing their fourth game in the past five days. A brutal scheduling spot. The Pistons, who had enjoyed two straight days off, came in well-rested and routed them by a 112-89 margin. The shoe is on the other foot this time though. This time, while the Pistons were busy beating Chicago, the Hornets had yesterday off. In addition to playing the second of b2b games, the Pistons will also be playing their third game in the past four days. While Reggie Jackson may not play in the b2b spot for the Pistons, the Hornets hope to get Marvin Williams back, which would essentially put them at full strength. Even with last week's win here, the Pistons are still only 4-8 SU/ATS on the road. Look for the revenge-minded Hornets, who can climb back above .500 here with a win, to get some payback, picking up the cover along the way. |
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12-06-16 | Suns +7.5 v. Jazz | Top | 105-112 | Win | 100 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
I'm playing on PHOENIX 10* BEST BET. It would be easy enough to make a case for the Jazz; admittedly they've been playing better than the Suns. A big part of beating the NBA is about taking advantage of favorable scheduling and/or "emotional" situations. In this case, I really like how things set up for the visiting Suns. The Jazz are off a fairly hard fought game at LA last night, Hayward, Gobert and co. logging relatively heavy (36 and 39) minutes. Note that Hill has been out and likely remains a gametime decision. Also, the Jazz have continued to play without Burks and now Favors. While the Jazz have actually been pretty good when playing their second game in two nights, they'll also be playing their third game in four nights here. The abscence of Favors figures to be magnified. Additionally, they've got a big game against Golden State on deck. That being the case, it should be easy to look past the "lowly Suns," who are off a blowout loss to those same Warriors and who the Jazz swept last season. That'll prove costly though. The Suns are well-rested, having had the past two days off. They're also hungry to bounce back from the embarrassing loss against Golden State. While the Jazz are 7-10-1 ATS their last 18 as home favorites in the -6.5 to -9 range, the Suns are 6-2 ATS the last eight times that they were off a double-digit loss and 11-4 ATS the last 15 times that they gave up 105 or more points in their last game. Already 3-0 ATS this season, when listed as a road underdog in the 6.5 to 9 range, I like the Suns to bounce back with AT LEAST another cover. |
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12-06-16 | Old Dominion v. Rhode Island -10 | Top | 39-51 | Win | 100 | 23 h 13 m | Show |
I'm playing on RHODE ISLAND. I believe that the Monarchs are at the wrong place, at the wrong time. The Rams are off a tough loss against rival Providence, their second straight 3-point loss. Both came on the road though. They're back home, where they're still perfect (4-0) on the season, and I expect them to be in an angry mood. While Rhode Island fans surely would have liked to beat the Friars, I agree with coach Dan Hurley that there's no reason to panic. Hurley had this to say: "We lost two tough road games against two pretty good teams in tough venues in games seven and eight of the nonconference. We've just got to have a little perspective and not lose our minds." The Monarchs aren't slouches by any means, as they're a strong defensive team. That said, they only score 61.8 ppg (61.4 on the road) and they're up against a Rams team which is averaging 88 ppg on this floor. While the Rams may not hit that average tonight, its still going to be tough for the Monarchs to keep up. The Monarchs beat the Rams, at Old Dominion, last December. I expect the Rams, 6-1 ATS the last seven times that they were listed as home favorites in the -9.5 to -12 range, to return the favor, in convincing fashion, on Tuesday evening. |
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12-05-16 | Spurs v. Bucks +6.5 | Top | 97-96 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
I'm playing on MILWAUKEE 10* GOW. While I successfully played against the Bucks in their last game, I believe that they're offering excellent value tonight. Last time out, given the situation, I felt that the Bucks were laying a few too many points as they were favored by 10 against a revenge-minded Brooklyn team. Though the Bucks failed to cover (barely) they still won by nine points. That marked their fourth straight victory. One of those was a 118-101 win over Cleveland, too. The Bucks had yesterday off and they also have tomorrow off. Outscoring opponents by a 109.4 to 103.9 margin on this floor this season, they're going to come in full of confidence. The Spurs are on an extended hot streak and are off b2b victories. However, it should be noted that neither of those victories came by more than seven points. They beat a depleted Dallas team by only seven and then only squeaked by the Wizards by two. Note that Parker didn't play in either of those games, after tweaking his leg against the Magic on Tuesday. (Popovich has called him day-to-day.) Unlike the Bucks, the Spurs play (at Minnesota) tomorrow. That being the case, although its still early in the season, you never know when Popovich might surprise by resting a player. While we obiously won't count on that, I don't expect that we'll need to. Note that the last time that the Spurs played the front end of b2b games, they got blown out at Orlando. The Bucks are 4-2 ATS against teams from the West and I like their chances of AT LEAST another cover again tonight. |
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12-05-16 | Wizards v. Nets UNDER 219.5 | Top | 118-113 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
I'm playing on Washington and Brooklyn to finish UNDER the total 10* BEST BET. I won't try and call either of these defenses "elite." However, this number gives plenty of room to work with and I believe that'll ultimately prove to be too high. While it hasn't quite worked out the way that he wanted yet, Scott Brooks has been determined that the Wizards improve defensivly since his very first day with the team. Thats a little easier to work on against weaker teams like Brooklyn; four of the Wizards' seven games against sub-500 teams have fallen below the total. Washington road games are averaging "only" 206.5 points and the UNDER is 4-1 when they've been involved in a game where the O/U line was greater than 210. For the Nets, this is the highest O/U line that they've had for a game against an Eastern Conf. opponent all season. The only other time that they got up in this range was against Indiana, a game which had an O/U line of 218.5. That one finished below the total by more than 20 points, as they didn't even get to 200. I look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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12-03-16 | Heat v. Blazers -6.5 | Top | 92-99 | Win | 100 | 14 h 19 m | Show |
I'm playing on PORTLAND 10* PERS FAV. The home team won and covered both meetings last season. The Blazers were laying -6.5 for the game here and they won by 17. I expect a similar result tonight. The Blazers know that they have a difficult stretch coming up. After this game, they hit the road for five games. Then, they're back home for just one game (OKC) before hitting the road again. In other words, they absolutely need to take care of business here at home, before they go. Off a 22-point win over the Pacers last time out, Portland has now won two of three. The Heat have already had a successful road trip and may already be looking forward to getting home. They're 1-3 ATS their last four off an "upset win" and 0-4 ATS the last four times that they played a road game with an O/U line of 210 or greater. The Blazers, who had two days off before their blwout of the Pacers, have again had two days off. They'll be fresh and I look for them to be hungry. The Blazers are averaging 118.4 ppg their last five and 113.3 ppg (47.1%) at home on the season. I think that the Heat, who average only 96.9 ppg (42.8%) on the road, are going to have trouble keeping up. |
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12-03-16 | Oklahoma State v. Maryland -2 | Top | 70-71 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
I'm playing on MARYLAND 10* MAIN EVENT. The Terps have had a great SU record at home over the years but have struggled at the betting window. Here's a case, however, where a SU win is likely also going to result in an ATS cover. The Terps have won four of five here this season, outscoring opponents by a 72.4 to 60.6 margin here. They're 38-3 on this floor the past 2+ seasons. While they did drop their last game here, it was their fifth game in 10 days and appeared flat, as a result. They've had some more time to recover now and I expect a much better effort. Led by point-guard Jawun Evans, the Cowboys have wins over Georgetown and UConn to their credit, along with a blowout loss vs. UNC, so they're certainly not slouches. That said, this is their first "true road game," and they're just 4-17 SU on the road the past 2+ seasons. This hasn't been a good role for them over the years either, as they're just 8-21-1 ATS the last 30 times that they were listed as road underdogs (or pick) of three or fewer points. Maryland Coach Mark Turgeon described Thursday's practice as: "... among the best of the season." I expect that to carry over into tonight's game, homecourt ultimately proving the difference. Maryland bounces back. |
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12-03-16 | Nets +9.5 v. Bucks | Top | 103-112 | Win | 100 | 7 h 41 m | Show |
I'm playing on BROOKLYN 10* BEST BET. This is the biggest number that the Bucks have been asked to lay this season; I feel it will prove to be too high. The Bucks are off three straight wins, most recently beating these same Nets at Brooklyn on Thursday night. Playing with such recent "revenge" should provide the Nets, 2-0 ATS the last two times that they attempted to avenge an earlier home loss, with some added motivation. While the Bucks' 3-game winning streak has helped in driving up the line, note that Milwaukee is an ugly 2-11 ATS the past 2+ seasons, after three or more consecutive SU victories. Going back further finds the Bucks at a money-burning 48-88-7 ATS their last 143 in that situation. The Nets played the Bucks tough here earlier in the season, losing by only two. Look for them to give the Bucks all they can handle once again here. |
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12-02-16 | Rockets v. Nuggets -2.5 | Top | 128-110 | Loss | -103 | 14 h 11 m | Show |
I'm playing on DENVER 10* PERS FAV. This is a very tough scheduling spot for the Rockets. Last night, they left it all on the floor at Golden State, ultimately winning in double-OT. Harden played a whopping 45 mins. Anderson (44) and Ariza (42) were both up there, too. After logging that many minutes, playing in the high altitude of Denver figures to be tougher than normal. In addition to the back-to-back spot, note that the Rockets will also be playing their third game in the past four nights. Meanwhile, the Nuggets had last night off and have played just one game since 11/28. Needless to say, they should have the fresher legs tonight. The Nuggets have fared well against high-scoring, "defensively-challenged" teams like Houston. They're 6-2 ATS against teams that allow 99+ points per game and 7-3 ATS against teams which score 99+ per game. The Nuggets, 9-5-1 ATS the last 15 times that they were home favorites of three or fewer points, had their way with the Rockets last season, going 3-0 SU/ATS. With the schedule in their favor and knowing that they badly could use a win before hitting the road for six games after this, I expect more of the same tonight. |
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12-02-16 | Alabama v. Texas -3.5 | Top | 68-77 | Win | 100 | 15 h 59 m | Show |
I'm playing on TEXAS 10* PERS FAV. As some of you will likely recall, I successfully played on the Tide in their last game and they rewarded me with a 76-46 blowout win. As impressive as that victory was, winning at Texas is an entirely different deal from playing at home against Charleston Southern. While they've got some more experience than last season, the Tide have yet to play a "true" road game; I expect that they'll be dealing with some more growing pains away from home this season. They've won just nine of 25 times on the road the past couple of years and are 2-5 ATS as road underdogs in the 3.5 to +6 range, during that time. Off three straight losses, the Longhorns are going to be in a foul mood. They've won 30 of 39 on this floor the past 2+ seasons. During that time, they were 3-1 SU/ATS after failing to cover their previous three games. I expect them to bounce back with a much needed win, covering the small number along the way. |
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12-02-16 | Wizards v. Spurs UNDER 202 | Top | 105-107 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 5 m | Show |
I'm playing on Washington and SA to finish UNDER the total 10* BC. These teams recently played a relatively high-scoring game against each other at Washington, the Spurs winning 112-100. I expect this evening's rematch at SA to be considerably lower-scoring. While the Spurs have been involved in plenty of high-scoring games on the road, games here are averaging a mere 189.1 points. With the Spurs connecting on only 41.7% of their fg attempts here, its not surprising that the UNDER is 5-2-1. Last game here, they managed only 83 points, a 95-83 loss to Orlando. They bounced back with a fairly strong defensive effort at Dallas last time out, winning 95-87. Needless to say, both those games fell below the number. The Wizards are off b2b OT games, so their recent boxscores and stats look a little more offensive than they would otherwise. They've still seen three of their last five games fall below the number though and their road games have been lower-scoring overall than their home games. Look for this one to prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting, the UNDER improving to 5-1 the last six times that the Wizards were off a game in which they allowed 105 or more points. |
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12-01-16 | Cincinnati +6 v. Iowa State | Top | 55-54 | Win | 100 | 14 h 17 m | Show |
I'm playing on CINCINNATI 10* MAIN EVENT. I like the Cyclones and was really impressed with their effort in the recent AdvoCare Invitational tournament, as they played hard the entire way. Some of you will recall that I backed them in the finals of that tournament. Facing a strong Gonzaga team, the Cyclones found themselves trailing by 15 at halftime. However, they didn't quit. I included a quote in my analysis of that ISU/Gonzaga game from an ISU player (Naz Mitrou) stating that "This tournament means everything." The Cyclones played like it. They stormed back and earned the 'cover,' eventually losing 73-71. While the Cyclones have had a few days off to recover, I still believe thats going to prove to be a difficult loss to immediately bounce back from. When a game "means everything" and you fight so hard, only to come up just short, that takes a toll. Don't expect the Bearcats to show them any sympathy as they've also been playing great basketball. They've responded to their lone loss - against a good Rhode Island team - with three conesecutive double-digit victories. Full of confidence, they're looking for a "statement win" here. They also haven't forgotten a very close (81-79) loss at the hands of these same Cyclones, at Cincy, last season. While it appears the Bearcats may not have Clark, I believe they've got more than enough to take this game down to the wire with an excellent shot at the upset. |
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12-01-16 | Mavs v. Hornets -10.5 | Top | 87-97 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
I'm playing on CHARLOTTE 10* PERS FAV. While most knew it was going to be a long season, Dallas fans probably didn't expect it to be this bad. Indeed, the Mavs (3-14 SU and 6-11 ATS) are a mess right now, a shell of the team that they once were. Give them credit for fighting hard against San Antonio last night but expect it to catch up with them tonight. This will be the third time that the Mavs will play their second game in two nights. The first two times saw them lose by 29 combined points, while going 0-2 SU/ATS. Don't expect the Hornets to show them any mercy. Charlotte lost last time out. The Hornets were off a game the previous night though and playing their fourth game in five nights. Having won by 19 the previous night, we can forgive the last loss, or at least explain it. While the Mavs, who will be without Nowitzki and Barea, are 1-5 ATS against teams from the East, the Hornets are a solid 4-2 ATS against teams from the West. With the schedule and venue in their favor, look for the Hornets to pull away for a double-digit win. |
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12-01-16 | Columbia v. Seton Hall -15.5 | Top | 71-95 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show |
I'm playing on SETON HALL 10* PERS FAV. After winning three straight to start the season, including a fairly impressive victory at Iowa, the Pirates dropped two of three at the Advocare Invitational, failing to cover in all three games. Losses came against Florida and Stanford. They're back home now though and they've had some time off (last played on Sunday) to recover and prepare to get back to business. Note that they've won their two games on this floor by scores of 91-70 and 82-58. On the other hand, Columbia just lost a tough (88-86) one against Hoffstra on Tuesday and hasn't had much time to recover from it. Note that Columbia lost by 20 at St Joseph's, the only other time it faced a decent team on the road. Yes, its true that the Pirates have failed to cover a few in a row. That shouldnt prevent us from pulling the trigger though. Note that they're 3-0 ATS the past couple of seasons, after failing to cover three straight. The Pirates are 12-3 SU and 10-3 ATS their past 15 in December. Look for them to start the month off in blowout fashion. |
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11-30-16 | UC-Irvine v. Santa Clara -1 | Top | 58-55 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 8 m | Show |
I'm playing on SANTA CLARA 10* GAME OF MONTH. The Anteaters hammered the Broncos last season. Playing at home, I expect the Broncos to return the favor tonight. While the Broncos are a relatively experienced team, the Anteaters lost the majority of the players who were around for last season's 79-61 beatdown. The lone returning starter was Luke Nelson. However, he has yet to play a minute, as coach Russ Turner has been extra cautious with his star. Turner recently had this to say of Nelson: "It's a tough deal because he’s got a hamstring issue, which is difficult to define. I feel like he is close to playing. But until he is 100 percent, I'm going to be cautious with that, and that's because the conference race and the conference tournament specifically are so much more vital than the games that we're playing now." In the (unlikely) event that Nelson does return, he can't be expected to be dominate in his first game back - and the return of a team's star, after he's been gone for a long time, often initially causes the other players to "stand around" a little, or at least it takes some time for the lineup to adjust. Note that Nelson led the way for the Anteaters in last year's win over Santa Clara, going 4-of-5 from beyond the arc with 20 overall points and six asssists. Nelson's absence and the Anteaters' overall inexperience is starting to catch up with them. Losing by six against East Tenn. State last time out wasn't too bad. However, they were hammered by 54-37 by a weak Wisconsin-Milwaukee team before that. (The only other team that Wisc-Milw has beaten thus far is the "Milwaukee School Of Engineering" and every other game has resulted in a double-digit loss.) The Broncos have also lost two in a row. However, those losses came against Vanderbilt and Arizona (big difference from Wisc-Milwaukee!) and both were by 10 points or less. The Broncos won their last two games on this floor by double-digits. I look for them to rise to the occasion and avenge last year's loss. |
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11-30-16 | Lakers v. Bulls -10.5 | Top | 96-90 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
I'm playing on CHICAGO 10* GOW. I played against the Lakers last night and they got destroyed at New Orleans. Now, they're at (arguably) an even more difficult venue, while playing the second of b2b games. (The Bulls are 4-1 SU/ATS here, outscoring teams by an average of 109 to 98.4.) Note that the Lakers have just five wins the last 37 times that they played the second of b2b games. The last two times that they were in that situation they lost by scores of 149-106 and 125-99. In addition to playing in a b2b spot, the Lakers will also be playing their third game in the past four days and their sixth game in the past nine days. Thats a pretty gruelling stretch, made worse by the fact that they're missing D'Angelo Russell right now. Also, Nick Young who provides valuable minutes off the bench and was even more important after Russell went down, left last night's game and needed help getting to the locker-room. While his status isn't entirely clear until after today's MRI, it'd surprise me if he played. Regardless of whether the Lakers have Young for this game or not, the well-rested Bulls are more than capable of delivering a blowout. They already won by eight at LA last week and the previous two meetings both resulted in double-digit wins. Speaking of double-digits wins, this will be just the Bulls' third home game since 11/5. Both previous ones resulted in double-digit wins, the Bulls winning those two games by 43 combined points. With an O/U line currently sitting at 212, the pace figures to favor the Bulls. They're 13-5 ATS the last 18 times that they played a game with an O/U line of 210 or greater, 8-3 ATS (9-2 SU) when doing so at home. With the schedule in their favor, I'm anticipating another beatdown. |
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11-29-16 | Lakers v. Pelicans -5 | Top | 88-105 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
I'm playing on NEW ORLEANS 10* PERS FAV. The Lakers embarrassed the Pelicans here earlier this month. I say New Orleans gets some payback tonight. While the Lakers were healthy, the Pelicans were still without Jrue Holliday for the 11/12 meeting. It also didn't help matters that Davis went down and left the game game at a critical time. (While Davis did return, the Lakers went on a 14-0 run while he was out.) As for Holliday, he's playing now, with some games under his belt, and that makes this N.O. team a lot better. A couple of recent road losses notwithstanding, the Pelicans are playing well right now, winning four of their last six. Since the loss to LA, they've gone a perfect 4-0 here, beating Boston, Portland, Charlotte and Minnesota. They won those four games by a combined 39 points, nearly 10 points per game. This time, its the Lakers who are dealing with a signficant injury in the backcourt, as D'Angelo Russel has gone down. He was +13 with 22 points, six assists while adding a couple of rebounds and a block in the earlier meeting. Note that Randle who led the Lakers with 11 rebounds and a +17 plus/minus mark in that game is also currently questionable. He was limited to non-contact work during yesterday's practice and will likely be a gametime decision. Either way, with the Lakers are just 4-9 ATS (3-10 SU) their past 13 off a double-digit win and the Pelicans at 20-12 ATS their past 32 off an "upset" loss, I say its payback time. |
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11-28-16 | Butler v. Utah +2.5 | Top | 68-59 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
I'm playing on UTAH 10* BEST BET. Its true that Butler has played a much tougher schedule, as Utah has been beating up on cupcakes. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs deserve a lot of credit for winning the Continental Las Vegas Invitational. Beating Arizona in the finals was no small feat. However, they may well be in 'letdown mode' here and have had little time to recover. Either way, I expect the Bulldogs, who are still getting used to the six new players in their lineup, to stumble against a hungry, undefeated, and prepared Utes squad. Note that Butler is just 2-4 ATS the last six times it was listed as a road favorite of three or fewer points. Utah coach Krystkowiak has been preparing for this game, working in concepts into practice to help against Butler (whom Utah coaches saw play last season in Puerto Rico) without specifically telling players. "This is for the Butler game." Krystkowiak commented: "A lot of that is built into our practices without talking about Butler." This is the first of a home-and-home series between these schools; next year they'll square off at Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. With the schedule in their favor, look for the Utes to "hold serve" this year. |
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11-28-16 | Kings v. Wizards -4.5 | Top | 95-101 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
I'm playing on WASHINGTON 10* PERS FAV. Both these clubs have struggled to start the season. While the teams are much different, both bring similar stats to the table. The Wizards are 5-10. The Kings are 6-10. The Wizards score 102.1 points and allow 105.1. The Kings score 102.5 ppg and allow 105.5. While contending in the West is likely (again) going to be difficult for the Kings, the Wizards are fully capable of righting the ship and returning to the playoffs in the East. That said, they need to take care of business at home against teams like the one they'll face tonight. As you likely recall, Wall and Cousins played together at Kentucky. About six weeks ago now, the two stars squared off against each other at their old stomping grounds, as these teams played an exhibition game against each other at Rupp Arena. Cousins and the Kings finished on top, 124-119. With this evening's "rematch" being played at Washington, I expect Wall and co. to return the favor. Washington is off a loss last time out. That was against the Spurs though and they were playing the second of b2b games. Prior to that, they'd won back-to-back games and three of four. The Wizards have been a little cautious with limiting the minutes of their starters on both the front and back end of b2b situations. They didn't play last night though and they also get tomorrow off. While Cousins will obviously present a difficult matchup, Wall (and Beal) should enjoy a considerable edge in the backcourt. Note that the Kings are already 0-2 ATS as road underdogs in the 3.5 to 6 range. The home team easily won and covered both meetings last season, the Wizards winning 113-99 in the game here at Washington. Knowing they hit the road for three games after this, including tough games at OKC and SA to start the trip, look for the Wizards to up their game and come away with the win and cover. |
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11-27-16 | Clippers v. Pacers +10.5 | Top | 70-91 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
I'm playing on INDIANA 10* BEST BET. While the Pacers will be without Paul George, I believe that they're offering excellent value here. Obviously, George is a great player and he makes the Pacers a much better team. That said, they've been pretty inconsistent and have under-achieved to start the season. In that type of situation, learning how to play and win without its star can often help a team. While the competition (Nets) was admittedly on the weak side, the Pacers played great without George last time out, earning a 21-point win over Brooklyn, a win which should provide them with plenty of confidence. Coach Nate McMillan said this after that win: "Tonight is what I feel we can become. I told the guys we can't go back. We can't keep going back and forth. We've got to build off of this and establish our identity." The Clippers proved beatable last time out, stumbling at Detroit. Knowing that this is their last home game for awhile and that they'll face these same Clippers again on their upcoming road trip, I expect the Pacers' best effort and for that to result in AT LEAST a cover. |
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11-26-16 | Knicks v. Hornets -5 | Top | 102-107 | Push | 0 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
I'm playing on CHARLOTTE 10* PERS FAV. Playing at MSG, the Knicks beat the Hornets in OT yesterday. With tonight's rematch being played at Charlotte, I expect the revenge-minded Hornets to return the favor. In three b2b situations this season, the Knicks have allowed 118, 118 and 119 points. Not surprisingly, they were 0-3 SU/ATS in those games. All three losses came by a minimum of seven points, two of them by double-digits. They're now just 11-30 SU the past 2+ seasons, when playing the second of b2b games. This season, the Knicks are only 1-5 on the road, allowing an ugly 112.5 ppg. The Hornets, 7-4 ATS when laying points this season, are 48-38-2 ATS the past 2+ seasons, when playing with 'revenge.' I expect them to improve on those stats here. |
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11-25-16 | Clippers v. Pistons +6.5 | Top | 97-108 | Win | 100 | 26 h 54 m | Show |
I'm playing on DETROIT 10* GOW. By coincidence, last "Black Friday," I also released my NBA "Game Of The Week." It also involved the Clippers. Only last year, I was playing on the Clippers (they won 111-90, capping a 7-0 day) and this year I'm playing against them. Last season, the Clippers were playing at home and facing a New Orleans team which was playing without Anthony Davis. Yet, they were still only laying -6 or -6.5 points. This year, they're on the road against (arguably) a tougher opponent, yet they're laying a similar number. I believe thats providing excellent value with the capable home underdog. I backed the Pistons in their last game and they rewarded me with a 23-point beating of Miami. That blowout win should provide some confidence here. Knowing that the Clippers already hammered them at LA - and also knowing that they take to the road after this - should provide the Pistons with some added motivation. They're now 6-2 SU/ATS at home, outscoring teams by a dominating 101.2 to 88.1 margin here. With the Clippers an ugly 9-22 ATS the last 31 times (3-10 ATS L13) that they were listed as road favorites in the -6.5 to -9 range, I'm grabbing the points. |
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11-24-16 | Santa Clara +17 v. Arizona | Top | 61-69 | Win | 100 | 14 h 29 m | Show |
I'm playing on SANTA CLARA 10* BEST BET. These teams met last Thanksgiving Day, Arizona closing as a 24-point favorite. Santa Clara very nearly scored the upset though, the Cats ultimately winning 75-73. As per usual, the Wildcats are tough. However, I believe the Broncos are capable of providing another "Thanksgiving scare." The Broncos enter today's game with a modest 3-2 SU and 1-3 ATS record. That shouldn't scare us off them though, considering that they were 0-5 SU/ATS when they entered last season's near upset. As of this writing, the O/U line is 139.5 across the board. Thats a little higher than last seasons but still in the same "range." Note that the Broncos are 5-1 ATS their last six neutral court games where the O/U line ranged from 135 to 139.5 while the Wildcats are 1-5 ATS the last six times that they played a neutral court game with a total in that range. While they're 2-2 ATS thus far this season, November hasn't been kind to the Cats' bettors in recent years; they're just 6-11 ATS in November the past 2+ seasons. The Broncos have thrived in neutral court settings and are 2-0 ATS the past couple of seasons as neutral court underdogs in the +12.5 to +18 range. Last season's game is going to give them some confidence coming in; I'm taking the points. |
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11-22-16 | Utah State v. Purdue -10 | Top | 64-85 | Win | 100 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
I'm playing on PURDUE 10* GOW. The Boilermakers received a wake-up call in their last game and I expect it to work in their favor here. Favored by 18.5 points, the Boilermakers found themselves trailing lowly Georgia State by double-digits (56-44) with only 7:08 to play. While Georgia State deserves some credit, Purdue was clearly in 'letdown mode' from having just suffered an emotional 79-76 loss against Villanova in its previous game. The Boilermakers didn't quit though. Rather, they put together an awesome 20-0 run to end and win the game. I expect them to carry that positive momentum into this evening's "Cancun Challenge" contest. While the Aggies are worthy of respect, we shouldn't make too much out of their undefeated record. Their toughest opponent was UC Irvine, which played without its best player. Through four games, the Aggies are allowing just 61 ppg. That shouldn't phase Purdue though. The Boilermakers are 18-7 ATS their last 25 against teams which allow 64 or fewer points per game. During that stretch, Purdue is also 16-7 ATS after allowing 60 or fewer points and 9-3 ATS in all tournament games, 1-0 ATS as a neutral court favorite in the -9.5 to -12 range. I believe that we'll see the Purdue team that played so well against Villanova (and the one that closed out last game on a 20-0 run) not the one that struggled through the first part of last game. That'll be enough to lead to a double-digit win against an Aggie team which has yet to face this level of opposition. |
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11-22-16 | Pelicans v. Hawks -8 | Top | 112-94 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
I'm playing on ATLANTA 10* PERS FAV. Davis is obviously a dominant force. However, the Hawks still have the more complete team. While they lost at MSG last time out, the Hawks are a dominant 6-1 SU/ATS here at Atlanta. They're outscoring teams by "double-digits" here, an average score of 112.4 to 102.4. The Pelicans are off b2b solid wins. However, those both came at New Orleans.They're only 1-5 ATS on the road, getting outscored by an average of 100 to 92.7. Off their "upset" of Charlotte, note that the Pelicans are a dismal 12-26-1 ATS (12-27 SU) the last 39 times that they won outright as an underdog, in their previous game. They lost by seven against Orlando and by 27 against the Lakers so far in that situation this season. The Hawks, on the other hand, are 24-16-1 ATS (27-14 SU) off a SU loss in a game where they were favored. Knowing they hit the road for five games after this, look for the Hawks to bounce back and take care of business at home tonight. |
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11-20-16 | Blazers -4 v. Nets | Top | 129-109 | Win | 100 | 8 h 1 m | Show |
I'm playing on PORTLAND 10* ANNIHILATOR. Its been a bad start to the road trip for the Blazers and with more difficult games to follow, they know that they need to take care of business this afternoon. I expect them to do just that. The Nets are coming off a difficult road trip of their own. While they've admittedly been much better at home, playing the first game back from a long trip can often be challenging. The Blazers are 8-5 ATS the last 13 times that they were listed as road favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range, one of their better roles away from Portland. They were laying -4 points here last season and won by 12. I'm expecting them to bounce back with a similar effort this afternoon. |
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11-19-16 | Pacific +4.5 v. UC-Irvine | Top | 65-72 | Loss | -119 | 14 h 4 m | Show |
I'm playing on PACIFIC 10* BEST BET. Some of you may recall that I successfully backed the Anteaters a couple of games ago. Listed as small favorites, they rewarded me with a solid 73-58 victory. The Anteaters followed that up with another well-played game, as they took Cal to OT. True, they caught the Bears without a few regulars. Stil, they were huge (+16) underdogs and to get to OT was impressive. That said, I expect that game to catch up to them here. The Anteaters had a chance to win that one in regulation and couldn't capitalize. The thought of 'what could have been' figures to linger in the lockerroom. The continued absence of star Luke Evans (hamstring) doesn't help matters either. They keep listing him as questionable but he has yet to play. In the unlikely event he did play tonight, off an extended absence, he can't be expected to perform miracles in his first game back. The Tigers have had a couple of extra day's rest and come in off a momentum-building 18-point win, the first victory of the "Stoudamire era." Note that last season's meeting was decided by three points and that the Tigers are 4-2 ATS the last six times that they were listed as road underdogs in the 3.5 to 6 range. I expect them to improve on those stats tonight. |
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11-19-16 | Warriors v. Bucks +8 | Top | 124-121 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
I'm playing on MILWAUKEE 10* BEST BET. Last night's game at Boston didn't end up proving to be too taxing for the Warriors. However, they still had to play. They'll be playing their third road game in the past four days here, the first of those (at Toronto) a considerably tougher game than last night's. They'll be taking on a rested Milwaukee team which upset them here last season - you remember that game - and which comes in believing that it can do the same thing this season. (The Bucks also covered at GS last season, too.) The O/U line for last year's game here was 'only' 205. At 220, or higher, tonight's is considerably higher. That should suit the Bucks just fine. They're 7-2-1 ATS (8-2 SU) the last 10 times that they played a home game with an O/U line of 210 or greater. Look for them to rise to the occasion once again, earning at least another cover. |
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11-18-16 | USC v. Texas A&M -7.5 | Top | 65-63 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
I'm playing on Texas A@M 10* PERS FAV. Both teams are 2-0, each beating up on some weaker opposition. With this game being played at College Station, the first time that the Trojans have played here since 1936, I expect the Aggies to have the advantage. USC is playing its first true road game here and road wins have been pretty tough to come by in recent seasons. The Trojans were 3-7 on the road last season (5-16 L2 years) and they're an ugly 20-71 on the road the last eight seasons. Meanwhile, the Aggies are now 33-5 on this floor the past 2+ seasons and that includes a 2-1 ATS mark as home favorites in the -6.5 to -9 range. Going back further finds them at 19-7-1 ATS their last 27 in that role. Its also worth noting that the Aggies are 9-0 SU and 7-2 ATS the last nine times that they played a home game with an O/U line in the 145 to 149.5 range. The Trojans are still pretty young. Look for this trip to prove to be a rude awakening. |
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11-17-16 | 76ers v. Wolves -11 | Top | 86-110 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
I'm playing on MINNESOTA 10* PERS FAV. The 76ers took advantage of a short-handed Wizards team last night, earning a rare win. Don't expect a repeat performance. Off their recent win over Indiana, the 76ers also were forced to play the next day. The result? A 21-point loss. (They also lost by 16 the only other previous time that they played the second of b2b games this season.) Now, in addition to the b2b situation, the 76ers will be forced to play their fifth game in the past seven nights. I expect it to catch up with them. The Wolves couldnt quite get past Charlotte last time out. However, a 26-point win over the Lakers, in their previous game, shows that they're capable of "winning big." With the schedule and venue in their favor, I expect them to do just that, moving to 3-0 SU/ATS the last three times that they were listed as home favorites in the 9.5 to 12 range. |
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11-17-16 | Providence v. Ohio State -6.5 | Top | 67-72 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
I'm playing on OHIO STATE 10* TV MAIN EVENT. As you likely know, Providence lost Chris Dunn to the NBA. A 2-time Big East Player Of The Year, he was selected fifth overall by the T-Wolves. The Friars lost Ben Bentil to the NBA, selected 51st overall by the Celtics. Those are big shoes to fill. As some of you also know, I successfully backed the Friars in their first game. I noted that I thought they still had some decent talent and depth, that they were tough to beat at home and that they were going to be highly motivated to show they could win without Dunn. That was a home game against Vermont though. Now, they're on the road against Ohio State. With a victory under their belt, the desire to prove that they can win without Dunn may not be as strong. The Buckeyes have yet to cover but are already 2-0 on the season. They'll be relishing the chance for a big win over a team from the Big East. The Buckeyes dropped some early non-conf. games last season and have learned their lesson from it. Matta called them out for being flat in their opener. I expect them to respond with a far more focused effort here, en route to a win and cover. |
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11-16-16 | UC Riverside v. UNLV -6.5 | Top | 62-74 | Win | 100 | 15 h 59 m | Show |
'm playing on UNLV 10* PERS FAV. The Highlanders have some quality players, as Johnson and Thames are both capable scorers. However, I believe they're coming to the wrong place, at the wrong time. The Rebels are going to be in a fould mood, after getting upset by South Alabama. Its true that UNLV has slipped since its "the glory days." Its also true that this is a fairly young team, one which is dealing with some early injury adversity. They're a young team with talent though, one which will be determined to get Menzies his first win as coach of UNLV. The defensive effort was their in the first game, but they were lacking in offensive execution. I expect that game to serve as a good learning tool. They're also likely not going to need as many to win against the Highlanders. UC Riverside scored only 55 points in its loss at Portland. UNLV won by 11 at UC Riverside last season, covering as 6-poiint favorites. Including that result, the Highlanders are a dismal 2-10 ATS (0-12 SU) their last 12 against teams from the Mountain West. Rebels roll. |
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11-16-16 | Cavs v. Pacers +4.5 | Top | 93-103 | Win | 100 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
I'm playing on INDIANA 10* BEST BET. Admittedly, the Cavs are playing well these days. I look for them to stumble tonight though. The Pacers got back on track in a big way last time out. I expect them to carry them momentum into tonight's big game against the Cavs. While its been a slow start, I still believe that this is a very capable Indiana team, one of the few teams capable of beating the Cavs. Tonight, they're catching Cleveland off a hard-fought game vs. Toronto last night, the team that took them to the brink in last year's Eastern Conference Finals and playing their third game in the past four days. The Pacers believe so, too. The purpose of their offseason moves was to give them a team that could compete with Cleveland in the playoffs. Note that the Cavs are an ugly 7-16-1 ATS the last 24 times that they were road favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range. During that stretch, the Pacers were 5-3 ATS as home underdogs in the 3.5 to 6 range. They're also 4-0 ATS the last four times that they hosted the Cavs. With the schedule in their favor, I expect them to improve on those stats tonight. |
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11-15-16 | Bulls v. Blazers -3 | Top | 113-88 | Loss | -115 | 30 h 23 m | Show |
I'm playing on PORTLAND 10* MAIN EVENT. While they've failed to cover recently, the Blazers have still won five of their last six. This should be a good spot to break through with a win AND cover. The Bulls have played well at home. However, they're only 2-3 on the road and have yet to win at a venue as difficult as this one. Chicago's two road wins came at Brooklyn and Miami, against a pair of sub-500 teams. When they stepped up in class to play stronger teams on the road (Atlanta, Indiana, Boston) the Bulls lost all three times. Each loss came by a minimum of seven points and by an average of 11. While I respect the Bulls, I expect homecourt to ultimately prove the difference, the Blazers covering the small number along the way. |
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11-14-16 | South Dakota State v. UC-Irvine -3 | Top | 58-73 | Win | 100 | 14 h 23 m | Show |
I'm playing on UC Irvine 10* PERS FAV. Both teams got hammered in their opener. Both will be hungry to bounce back. One could make a case that the Jackrabbits were 'better' in their blowout loss, as it came against a much stronger opponent. They lost at Cal while the Anteaters were beaten by Utah State. I believe that b2b home games are going to serve the Anteaters better than b2b road games will treat the Jackrabbits though. While South Dakota State is below .500 on the road, the Anteaters, 4-1 ATS their last five off a double-digit loss, are 21-6 at home the past 2+ seasons. The Anteaters played without their star Luke Nelson in the opening loss. They're hoping to have him back for tonight's game. Either way, I expect them to bounce back and improve on those stats, covering the small number along the way. |
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11-14-16 | Magic v. Pacers -6 | Top | 69-88 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
I'm playing on INDIANA 10* PERS FAV. The Pacers figure to be in a foul mood here. After getting upset by the 76ers in OT, they lost to Boston last time out. They've had a day off to recover and stew in their anger though and I expect them to come out swinging tonight. They catch the Magic off a hard fought upset win at OKC yesterday and playing their third game in the past four days. While they've had trouble on the road, prior to the Boston loss, the Pacers had yet to taste defeat at home. They're still 4-1 here, averaging greater than 115 ppg on this floor. Averaging only 93.6 ppg their past five outings, the Magic figure to have trouble keeping up. The Pacers are 6-1 SU/ATS their last seven in this series. With the schedule in their favor, I expect them to improve on those stats in convincing fashion tonight. |
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11-13-16 | Yale v. Washington -10 | Top | 98-90 | Loss | -115 | 27 h 59 m | Show |
I'm playing on WASHINGTON. This was already going to be a tough matchup for Yale. While you may recall that the Bulldogs made it to the NCAA Tournament season, the first time they'd been there since 1962. This year's team lost all but one starter from that team though. Fortunately, for Yale fans, their lone returning starter is Makai Mason. If you remember Yale playing in the tournament, you'll remember Mason. He was the guy that scored 31 points in the first round upset of Baylor. Unfortunately, at least for Yale fans, Mason broke his foot in a recent scrimmage and won't be available for here. For a team that was relying on him more than ever, thats a devasating blow. While the Huskies also lost some key players from last year's team, the cupboard isn't as bare. They've still got a couple of starters from last year along with guard Markelle Fultz, considered to be one of the top freshmen in the country. Look for the Huskies to take advantage of their "Mason-less" guests, starting the Fultz era off with a double-digit win. |
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11-13-16 | Lakers v. Wolves -4 | Top | 99-125 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
I'm playing on MINNESOTA 10* PERS FAV. Both teams played yesterday. The Lakers beat the Pelicans while the T-Wolves lost against the Clippers. The fact that the T-Wolves didn't have to travel in between games should work in their favor, in this b2b spot. Also, with the T-Wolves having lost last night, they should be a little hungrier than their guests. A closer look at the scheduling for both teams shows that the Wolves had two day's off, prior to last night's loss. On the other hand, the Lakers had only one day off, prior to last night's win. That means that LA will be playing its third game in four nights here while that will not be the case for the T-Wolves. The Wolves played arguably their best game of the season, the only previous time that they played the second of b2b games, a 123-107 destruction of Orlando. Look for them to have the fresher legs tonight, as they bounce back with another win and cover. |
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11-11-16 | Indiana v. Kansas -5.5 | Top | 103-99 | Loss | -106 | 37 h 9 m | Show |
I'm playing on KANSAS 10* SPECIAL. As evidenced by their lofty rankings, both these teams are going to be good this year. However, the Jayhawks have the higher ranking for a reason and they should have the advantage out of the gate. The Jayhawks, who added the nation's top recruit in Josh Jackson, will be looking to tie tie UCLA's all-time Division I record of 13 consecutive conference championships this season and there's little reason to doubt that they'll do it. Bill Self had this to say of this year's team: "I love our experience. I love our depth. And I think our young kids could be our most talented. There's no reason not to be optimistic." All Big-Ten point guard Yogi Ferrell has moved on for the Hoosiers. That's significant as he'd been running the offense for a long time. While the Hoosiers had a strong season last year, it started off with a 1-2 record in Maui. They're on a different island (Oahu) this time but I expect them to again get off to a tough start. Look for this loaded Jayhawks team to get off to a winning start, picking up the cover along the way. |
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11-11-16 | Pacers v. 76ers UNDER 213 | Top | 105-109 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 25 m | Show |
I'm playing on Indiana and Philadelphia to finish UNDER the total 10* BC. These teams just played a high-scoring game against each other at Indiana on Wednesday. With the venue switching to Philadelphia, I expect Friday's rematch to be considerably lower-scoring. Part of the reason for such a high score on Wednesday was that the game went to OT. However, it was still fairly high-scoring even without that. The Pacers aren't scoring nearly as many points per game on the road as they are at home though. After Wednesday's high-scoring affair, they're now averaging 119.5 ppg at home. However, they managed 100.5 on the road. The opposite is true of Philly. The 76ers are averaging 104 ppg on the road but just 91 ppg at home. Look for the UNDER to improve to 6-3 the last nine times that the 76ers playerd a home game with an O/U line of 210 or greater. |
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11-10-16 | Lakers v. Kings -4.5 | Top | 101-91 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 11 m | Show |
I'm playing on SACRAMENTO 10* GOM. I successfully played against the Lakers in their last game. Favored against the Mavs, the young Lakers got blown out, losing by 12 points. Their 'winning streak' snapped, I look for the Lakers to struggle again tonight. The Kings come in healthy and off back-to-back wins. They got Collison back from an 8-game suspension last time out and he gave them 28 minutes. While he didn't start that game and may not again tonight, he makes their backcourt significantly stronger. Of course, Cousins is the straw that stirs the drink, as he does it all for this team. The Kings beat the Lakers all four games last season and Cousins led the way. In those four games, the Kings' star averaged 27.0 points, 11.3 rebounds, 4.0 assists, 1.3 steals, and 2.0 blocks, all while shooting better than 50% (50.8%) from the field and hitting 83.3% from the line. Last game was the first time that the Kings were really favored all season, as they've had a fairly difficult opening schedule. Their first game was on the road. Then, they hosted the Spurs for their home opener. They won a pick'em game against the T-Wolves in their next game here and that was followed by a 5-game road trip. They struggled on the trip but closed it out with a win at Toronto, which is no small feat. Finally, they got an 'easier' game, as they returned home to host the Pelicans. They took care of business in that one, winning by eight. That means that they're 2-1 at home with the lone loss coming against San Antonio. Needless to say, while they do have some quality young players, the Lakers, who are 1-3 on the road, aren't in the class of the Spurs and they still don't have an answer for the Kings' big man. Look for Cousins and co. to take advantage of the winnable game, improving to 9-6-1 (11-5 SU) the last 2+ seasons, when listed as home favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range. |
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11-09-16 | Wolves v. Magic -2.5 | Top | 123-107 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 0 m | Show |
I'm playing on ORLANDO 10* PERS FAV. While the T-Wolves certainly have some talented players, they're in a bit of a funk at the moment. Last night, they lost at Brooklyn. That dropped them to 0-3 SU/ATS their last three and 1-5 SU/ATS on the season. They have yet to win on the road. Given that poor start and the fact that they're in a back-to-back spot, one might expect the T-Wolves to be a bigger underdog. The Magic don't get much respect though and thats kept this line relatively low. Note that Orlando is 7-3 ATS the last 10 times it was favored at home by three or fewer points. The Magic have won back-to-back games on this floor. They're 2-1 SU/ATS here on the season In last season's game against the T-Wolves here, they erased a double-digit halftime defiicit to win by three. Later, they'd go on to also win by three at Minnesota. While they failed to cover in the first of those, as they were favored by five, the Magic are a healthy 15-5 ATS their last 20 against teams from the Northwest, 37-23-1 ATS their last 61 against teams from the West overall. I like the addition of Ibaka to this Magic team, combining with the likes of Vucevic and Gordon. All three are averaging double-digits in points thus far, while Fournier leads the team with 17.4 ppg. With the schedule and venue in their favor and catching their guests in a slump, I look for the Magic to win their sixth straight in this series, covering the small number along the way. |
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11-08-16 | Mavs +5 v. Lakers | Top | 109-97 | Win | 100 | 30 h 1 m | Show |
I'm playing on DALLAS 10* BEST BET. The Lakers have been a profitable team at the betting window thus far and they enter tonight's game on a nice roll. I successfully played on them in their only 'non-cover' (blowout loss at OKC on 10/30) though and I feel that this will be a good spot to go against them once again. Note that LA remains a poor 3-7 ATS (2-8 SU) the last 10 times that it was off a double-digit win. During that stretch, the Lakers were also 0-3 SU/ATS after winning their previous three games. 'It wasn't easy but the Mavs got themselves on track last time out, earning an 86-75 victory over the Bucks. One wouldn't know it by the final score but that game went to OT, the Mavs dominating once they got there. With the monkey (of getting their first win) off their back, I expect the Mavs to build some positive momentum from that effort. Even without Dirk, they're the more experienced team in this matchup. They've dominated the Lakers in recent seasons and I expect them to give them all they can handle once again tonight. |
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11-08-16 | Nuggets v. Grizzlies -2 | Top | 107-108 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 25 m | Show |
I'm playing on MEMPHIS 10* PERS FAV. While the Nuggets come in as the hotter team, I like how this one sets up for the Grizzlies. Memphis started the season dealing with a number of injuries but is now starting to get healthier. Last time out, Chandler Parsons made his season debut for the Grizzlies. While he admittedly didn't shoot well (0 for 8!) he's now got a game under his belt and will make this team stronger, even if minutes are limited a little at first. Playing the final game of a 4-game home-stretch and off b2b losses, the Grizzlies badly want to bounce back and salvage the split of the four games. Note that they're 14-10-2 ATS (16-10 SU) the past couple of seasons, off an 'upset' loss. Opposite of the Grizzlies, the Nuggets are playing the final leg of a road trip. They're just 6-12-3 ATS the last 21 times that they played their previous three on the road. Off their upset win at Boston, it wouldn't be a stretch for them to get caught looking ahead to Thursday's home showdown vs. the Warriors. The Grizzlies are 16-2 SU (11-7 ATS) the last 18 times that they played their previous three or more games at home. I expect them to improve on those stats, covering the small number along the way. |
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11-06-16 | Bucks v. Mavs -2 | Top | 75-86 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
I'm playing on DALLAS 10* MAIN EVENT. I successfully played against the Mavs in their first game of the season, a 130-121 loss at Indiana. The Mavs played relatively well in that game, as they took a tough Pacers team to OT. Losing in OT to start the season seemed to take a toll though, as did four straight games against teams from the West. Indeed, the Mavs enter today's game with an 0-5 record and now playing without Dirk. They finally get to "host" an Eastern Conf. team though. In fact, this is the first time that the Mavs have actually been favored in a game. Knowing that opportunities like this one may be few and far between and desperate for their first win, I expect the Mavs to give us a highly motivated effort. The home team won both games last season; the Bucks won by one at Milawaukee but the Mavs won by 10 here at Dallas. Look for them to rise to the occasion with another win and cover tonight. |
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11-05-16 | Nuggets v. Pistons -4 | Top | 86-103 | Win | 100 | 23 h 48 m | Show |
I'm playing on DETROIT 10* PERS FAV. Some of you will recall that I successfully played against the Pistons in their last game. That was a tough spot for them though. Not only were they on the road but they were coming off a big win over the Knicks the previous night and playing their third game in the past four nights. I thought fatigue might be a factor, and it was. That won't be the case tonight, however, as the Pistons have had the past two days off. They're also back home, where they're a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS on the season. Its true that the Nuggets are playing pretty well right now. They've split their first four games, covering three of them, with all four games being competitive. This is already their fourth road game through their first five games though and it represents the middle games of their current 5-game trip. While the Nuggets, 7-10-2 ATS their last 19 as road underdogs in the 3.5 to 6 range, did have last night off, they may be getting a little road weary already, all the close games taking a toll. Either way, they'll be taking on a Pistons team which has beaten every team by double-digits here. Though they lost last season, the Pistons have won 15 of the last 18 meetings with the Nuggets here. With the Pistons also at 21-6 ATS the last 27 times that they were off an "upset" loss, I'm laying the small number. |
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11-04-16 | Suns v. Pelicans -3 | Top | 112-111 | Loss | -106 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
I'm playing on NEW ORLEANS 10* PERS FAV. The Pelicans are hungry for their first win and this should be an excellent spot to get it. While the Pelicans are 0-5, the Suns (1-4) haven't been much better. Give them credit for beating Portland last game. However, keep in mind that they were playing in Phoenix and that the Blazers were coming off a loss vs. the Warriors the previous night. The Suns are 0-2 on the road, getting outscored by an average of 114.5 to 104. The Pelicans are 24-15-2 ATS against Pacific Division teams the past 2+ seasons and that includes a 3-1 SU/ATS home record in games against the Suns. The lone Suns win (4/9) was a game where Davis (and a laundry list of others) didn't play and where the Pelicans were off an upset win the night before and playing their fourth game in five nights. Things set up much more favorably for the Pelicans this time. When they hosted the Suns last November, with Davis in the lineup, they beat them by six. Davis had an off-shooting night (until the 4th) and still finished with a 32/19 stat-line, to go along with four blocks and two steals. Look for him to "will" the Pelicans to another win and cover tonight. |
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11-04-16 | Heat v. Raptors UNDER 200.5 | Top | 87-96 | Win | 100 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
I'm playing on Miami and Toronto to finish UNDER the tota 10* BEST BETl. As you may recall, these teams battled each other in the playoffs last May, the Raptors ultimately winning in seven. With that series having gone the distance and being relatively fresh in the player's minds, I expect tonight's game to have a "playoff feel" to it. That often translates to some extra intensity on the defensive side of the floor. A look at the O/U lines from the playoff series shows that all seven of them ranged from 188 to 191.5. Tonight's total is obviously much higher, which I feel is providing excellent value. A look at the scores from the playoff series shows that only one game (Game 7 finished with 205) produced more than 198 points. Off their minor upset win at Washington, the Raptors are mid-sized favorites for this one, the line currently -7.5 as of this writing. That's noteworthy as the Heat have seen the UNDER Go 10-2 the last 12 times that they were listed as road underdogs in the 6.5 to 9 range. Speaking of the Raptors' win at Washington, note that Toronto has seen the UNDER go a lucrative 21-5 the last 26 times that it was off a SU win, when it was listed as an underdog. I expect those stats to improve tonight. |
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11-03-16 | Thunder v. Warriors -10.5 | Top | 96-122 | Win | 100 | 14 h 5 m | Show |
I'm playing on GS 10* MAIN EVENT. The Warriors dropped their first game of the season, a home loss against the Spurs Then, they won a couple of fairly close ones on the road. Last time out, however, they put it all together with a 23-point win at Portland. Returning home, where they're still searching for their first win, I expect them to build off the Portland win with another complete effort tonight. Obviously, both teams will want this one. The Thunder will want to beat their old teammate. Durant and co will feel the same way though and they're in a better spot to do so. Not only are they playing at home, where they're 7-1 SU/ATS their last eight against OKC, but they're also rested while the Thunder are off a hard-fought win against the Clippers last night. Note that OKC is just 4-9 ATS its last 13 off an "upset" win. With the Porltand win, the Warriors are now 30-2 SU and 21-11 ATS in November, the past 2+ seasons. I say Round 1 goes to KD, the Warriors earning the cover along the way. |
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11-02-16 | Pistons v. Nets +5 | Top | 101-109 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
I'm playing on BROOKLYN 10* BEST BET. While they got blown out by Chicago last time out, the Nets have played quite well to start the season. They're 3-1 ATS and that includes an outright win over the Pacers. This is a good spot for them and I expect the well-rested Nets to bounce back with a big effort. The Pistons played well last night, pulling away for a double-digit win over the Knicks. They're playing the second of b2b games here though as well as their third game in the past four and fourth in six. In this kind of spot, the injury to pointguard Jackson figures to prove more significant than it has thus far. Note that the Nets' lone road game resulted in an 18-point loss. This hasn't been a good role for the Pistons in recent seasons, as they're only 1-4 ATS their last five as road favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range. (All four non-covers resulted in outright losses.) Its also worth noting, as the O/U line is currently in that range, that the Pistons are just 7-15 ATS their last 22 when playing on the road with an O/U line in the 200 to 204.5 range. The Nets beat the Pistons here last November, when listed as 5-point underdogs. Later in the season, they played them tough again here, covering as 7-point underdogs. I expect at least another cover tonight. |
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11-02-16 | Rockets v. Knicks -1.5 | Top | 118-99 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
I'm playing on NY. Both teams are off road losses last night. While the Knicks admittedly seemed to "run out of gas" in the fourth quarter against the Pistons, the Rockets are arguably in a more difficult scheduling spot. Harden is being asked to do a lot in D'Antoni's offense and played 38 hard minutes against Lebron and co. last night. With all due respect to Detroit, I would argue that a game against the defending world champs is more "draining" than a game against the Pistons. The Knicks' scheduling advantage is more than that though. Prior to last night's loss, they'd had both the 30th and the 31st off. This is their fourth game of the season. The Rockets, on the other hand, have played an extra game and had to play on the 30th. So, while both teams are in a b2b spot, the Rockets are also playing their third game in four nights (and fourth in six) while the Knicks are not. They've also had to fly from the West Coast (first game was at LA) to the East already, while the Knicks have yet to leave the Eastern time zone. While the Rockets are 1-2 on the road, the Knicks are 1-0 at home. D'Antoni will obviously want a win at MSG but I believe he's going to have to wait for another day. NY wins. |
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11-01-16 | Kings v. Heat -3.5 | Top | 96-108 | Win | 100 | 29 h 52 m | Show |
I'm playing on MIAMI 10* ANNIHILATOR. Since winning their opener at Orlando, the Heat have lost their first two home games. The first of those was winnable, as it came against Charlotte. They lost by six. The next was against San Antonio, always a tough matchup. The Heat lost by seven. Hungry for that first home win, the Heat step down in class to fact the Kings. The fact that they've also got a significant scheduling advantage figures to make matters easier. While the Heat had last night off, the Kings were busy playing at Atlanta. In addition to playing the second of back-to-back games, they'll be playing their fifth game in the past seven nights, a fairly grueling schedule right out of the gate. In other words, as both teams played their first game on 10/26, the Kings have squeezed an extra game into the same number of days while also flying from the West Coast to the East coast. Look for the Heat, who have yet to leave the state of Florida, to take advantage of the favorable schedule, sending the fans home with a win and cover. |
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10-31-16 | Nuggets v. Raptors -7 | Top | 102-105 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 21 m | Show |
I'm playing on TORONTO 10* PERS FAV. This game has some interesting storylines. Denver rookie Jamal Murray, who is from Kitchener, will be playing in Toronto for the first time. The game also features a pair of young centers who are both playing well, Valanciunas and Jokic. I believe that homecourt combined with the Raptors' superior backcourt will ultimately prove the difference though. The Raptors haven't forgotten that it was the Nuggets who snapped their 11-game winning streak last February 1, in Denver. Nor have they forgotten that the Nuggets also upset them 106-105 here at Toronto last December, a game where the Raptors were favored by 10 points. Denver entered that game on an 8-game skid. The Raptors got down double-digits early in that one and couldnt quite get all the way back. This is a well-coached team, one which nearly advanced to the NBA Finals last season. I look for a fully focus effort from Derozan, Lowry and co. as they pull away for a double-digit win, improving to 14-8 ATS (17-5 SU) their last 22 home games when the O/U line ranged from 200 to 204.5. |
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10-30-16 | Lakers v. Thunder -7.5 | Top | 96-113 | Win | 100 | 27 h 4 m | Show |
I'm playing on OKC 10* GAME OF MONTH. The Lakers are 2-0 ATS while the Thunder are 0-2 ATS. Those ATS results have worked in our favor in helping to keep the line a little lower than it could have otherwise been. I believe that's providing us with excellent value on the superior team. This is expected to be a fairly high-scoring game (O/U line of 214) which generally doesn't suit the Lakers too well. They're just 4-21 SU and 9-15-1 ATS the last 25 times that they played a road game with an O/U line of 210 or greater. (During the same stretch, the Thunder were 29-12 SU at home with an O/U line of 210 or greater.) That includes a 112-79 destruction the last time that the Lakers played here. The Thunder were laying -16.5 for that game. The previous meeting here, they were laying -16 and they won by 40. In fact, they've won the last four in the series by an average of 27.8. While Durant has moved on, I expect Westbrook and co. to deliver another double-digit win against a young Laker team. |
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10-29-16 | Grizzlies v. Knicks -3 | Top | 104-111 | Win | 100 | 28 h 5 m | Show |
I'm playing on NEW YORK 10* PERS FAV. The Knicks are 0-1 while the Grizzlies are 1-0. The Grizzlies have dominated the Knicks in recent seasons. No brainer on Memphis? Not in my opinion. For starters, we can't take too much from just one game. The Knicks had a very tough opening assignment as their first game was at Cleveland. The Grizzlies had a much easier matchup - no offense to the T-Wolves, who do have some talent - as they were home against Minnesota. Also, in regards to games from recent seasons, both teams have made some changes. When healthy, as they are now, former bulls Rose and Noah figure to make the Knicks a much stronger team. Speaking of health, the Grizzlies are dealing with some early injury issues. Wright, Allen and Parsons are all out again. As a result, the tonight's (Memphis) starting lineup is likely to include Andrew Harrison, James Ennis and JaMychal Green. Those three had 24 combined starts between them, entering the season. Lastly, while both teams are well-rested, it shoud be noted that NY gets tomorrow night off while Memphis will host Washington. As a result, Memphis coach Fizdale reportedly already informed that Gasol and Conley, the only two starters with experience, may see their minutes limited. There's going to be a lot of energy in the building and I look for the Knicks to ride it to a win and cover. |
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10-27-16 | Wizards v. Hawks UNDER 204.5 | Top | 99-114 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 30 m | Show |
I'm playing on Washington and Atlanta to finish UNDER the total 10* TOM. There have been considerable changes since these teams faced each other in the playoffs two seasons ago. They still don't like each other though. Bradley Beal had this to say of the Hawks and the game: "It'll probably be chippy ... that's a team we kind of go back and forth with. They don’t have our best interests, we don't have theirs either. It is what it is ... " Arguably the biggest change for the Wizards, since that series in May of 2015 and since last season, is that former OKC coach Scott Brooks is now behind the Wizards' bench. Brooks has stressed improved defense from the very first day of training camp. On the first day of practice, Brooks and his assistants worked on closing out on shooters, establishing correct positioning while establishing and developing the patterns necessary to erase last season’s defensive woes. After that first practice, Kelly Oubre Jr noted: "Coach Brooks thinks we can be intimidating if we all get after it and we're all in unison on the defensive end. That's where the word 'intimidating' comes from: Our length and size. We have the guys to compete." That theme of emphasizing improved defense continued throughout the Wizards' camp. While the Wizards defense should be improved this season, the Hawks' offense might take a bit to gel. Longtime Atlanta point guard Jeff Teague has moved on to Indiana while Dwight Howard is the Hawks' newest star. Bottom line is that I look for both teams to play hard on the defensive side of the ball and for the final combined score to prove lower-scoring that most will be expecting. |
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10-26-16 | Mavs v. Pacers -6 | Top | 121-130 | Win | 100 | 45 h 12 m | Show |
I'm playing on INDIANA 10* GAME OF THE WEEK. This is the 50th season of pro basketball for the Pacers and I expect them to tip if off with a win and cover. The Pacers made some significant moves in the offseason and are expecting big things. Additions included Jeff Teague, Thaddeus Young, Aaron Brooks and Al Jefferson. The plan is to push the pace on offense a little more this season - and early indications (preseason) are that it'll be effective. Superstar Paul George is on record saying that he's happy with the offseason moves and believes that the front office has given him the pieces/depth to be able to compete with James and the Cavs. While that remains to be seen, with a projected backcourt of Teague, a playmaker and Ellis a scorer, joining a frontcourt of George, Turner and Young, assuming they stay reasonably healthy, I do expect the Pacers to have a strong season. Dallas picked up (Harrison) Barnes and Bogut in the offseason. While both are solid players who are expected to start, I don't expect those moves to have quite the same positive effect as Indiana's moves, at least not tonight. The Pacers have swept the Mavs in back-to-back seasons and haven't lost to them since the spring of 2014. Look for them to start the new era with a double-digit win. |
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10-25-16 | Jazz v. Blazers -5.5 | Top | 104-113 | Win | 100 | 48 h 13 m | Show |
I'm playing on PORTLAND 10* PERSONAL FAVORITE. Homecourt has always been very important to both these teams; I expect it to prove to be the difference tonight. Health also figures to play a role. The Jazz dealt with some injury issues last season and they're already a concern again this season. Heyward, arguably their best player, is out. If Heyward isn't their best player, Favors probably is. He missed the preseason, while dealing with a knee injury. He has gotten some limited practice time in lately and, as of this writing, is questionable. However, even if he were to play, he can't be expected to be at 100%. Hood is expected to play he too is banged-up. He missed time in the exhibition campaign with a sprained hand. He returned to face these same Blazers at Salt Lake City last Wednesday, Utah's final preseason game, but wans't sharp. He managed only five points, while going two of eight from the field. Burks is also out. While the Jazz do have a deep team, that's a lot for any team to be dealing with right out of the gate. These teams also played their preseason opener against each other, a game here at Portland. The Blazers won that one by a score of 98-89. I expect them to win by at least that much again tonight, improving to 13-6 ATS the last 19 times that they were listed as home favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range. |
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06-19-16 | Cavs v. Warriors -5 | Top | 93-89 | Loss | -110 | 68 h 59 m | Show |
I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE. As many of you are aware, I won with Cleveland in the last game. Having successfully staved off elimination in Game 5, I just didn't see the Cavs losing on their home floor in Game 6. We're back out West for Game 7 though and I believe that homecourt will ultimately prove the difference. The Warriors earned the right to play this game here by being the best team all season long. Now, that season's worth of excellence pays off. Yes, the Cavs have shown they can win here. However, lets not forget that they were a modest 24-17 on the road during the regular season while the Warriors were 39-2 here at home. They've still beaten the Cavs four of the last five meetings on this floor, six of the past eight. Every one of those six victories came by a minimum of six points, too. The average margin of victory in this season's three home wins over the Cavs is 18. This line is lower than any game against the Cavs here since way back in 2010. I look for the Warriors, still 49-28-3 ATS (62-18 SU) their L80 when playing with 'revenge,' to repeat as champs, capping off an amazing season while covering the small number along the way. 10* |
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06-19-16 | Cavs v. Warriors UNDER 206.5 | Top | 93-89 | Win | 100 | 60 h 52 m | Show |
I'm playing on Cleveland and GS to finish UNDER the total. While I played on the 'over' in each of the last two games, I expect Game 7 to result in a lower-scoring affair. This series has turned into a war. With everything on the line, I expect nearly every shot to be contested. With scores of 209, 193 and 187, the three games here have averaged only 196.3 points. The Cavs have allowed triple-digits in only two of their last six road games while the Warriors have allowed 91 or less in four of their last six at home. For the season, the UNDER is 3-1 when the Warriors were listed as home favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range while the UNDER is also a profitable 7-1-1 when the Cavs were listed as road underdogs in the +3.5 to +6 range. The UNDER is now 15-5-1 the Cavs' last 21 in that role. With the UNDER also at 7-3-1 when the Warriors played a home game with an O/U line in the 205 to 209.5 range, I'm expecting this one to prove lower-scoring than most will be expecting. 10* |
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06-16-16 | Warriors v. Cavs -2 | Top | 101-115 | Win | 100 | 38 h 4 m | Show |
I'm playing on CLEVELAND. It would have been easy for the Cavs to quit. Down 3-1 and playing Game 5 on the road, they were essentially being written off. At least, by many. They didn't quit though. Now, they're right back in the series. Sure, it helped that Green was out. Still, I feel that the return home with the momentum and fans on their side will prove bigger than the return of Green. As strong as the Warriors are on the road, the Cavs are even stronger at home. They've now won 41 of their last 50 games here. I say: "Bring on Game 7." 10* |
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06-13-16 | Cavs v. Warriors OVER 204.5 | Top | 112-97 | Win | 100 | 13 h 25 m | Show |
I'm playing on Clev and GS to finish OVER the total. This number has fallen and is considerably lower than the O/U lines were at the beginning of the series. In what may well prove to be the highest scoring game of the series, I feel that low total is providing us with excellent value. Facing elimination, the Cavs aren't going to quit trying to score. Likewise for the Warriors, who smell the blood in the water. As you're probably aware, one new dynamic for this game is that Draymond Green is out. He only missed one game this season. That game finished above the total with 222 points (O/U line opened at 211 and closed at 215) as the Warriors were upset 112-110 by the Nuggets. Green's absence had a noticeable impact on the defense in that game. The Warriors entered that game allowing 24 uncontested looks per game but allowed 39 in that one. The Nuggets shot 51% from the field, Gallanari and (Darrell) Arthur taking advantage of Green's absence. I expect the Cavs' offense to also have more success tonight, the final combined score finishing above the relatively low number. 10* |
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06-10-16 | Warriors v. Cavs OVER 206 | Top | 108-97 | Loss | -105 | 32 h 20 m | Show |
I'm playing on GS and Clev. to finish OVER the total in Game 4. The change in venues resulted in the Cavs offense finally getting going. While Game 3 did manage to sneak above the total, we have yet to see a game where both offenses get it done. In all three games, the losing team has been held to 90 or fewer points. I expect a pivotal Game 4 to be much closer, both teams finally hitting triple-digits. The Warriors have seen the OVER go 6-2 off a double-digit loss, most recently bouncing back with a 120-111 win vs. OKC on 5/26. GS road games are averaging 220 points on the season. Thats the same as their average here at Cleveland as their two visits here have produced 210 and 230 combined points. The Cavs have their swagger back and the Warriors will be hungry to bounce back. Expect a high-scoring affair. 10* |
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06-08-16 | Warriors v. Cavs +1 | Top | 90-120 | Win | 100 | 52 h 19 m | Show |
I'm playing on CLEVELAND. The Warriors have certainly looked dominant thus far. The Cavs still have a better home record (40-11) than the Warriors (37-11) do on the road. Lebron and co have a lot of pride and obviously aren't happy with the results of the first two games. With their backs to the wall, I expect them to be MUCH better. Keep in mind that the Cavs haven't lost a game here in nearly two months. The last time it happened was when Lebron and the Cavs stars were rested, a meaningless regular season game against the Pistons. Since then, they've won seven straight here, the last six by double-digits. The Cavs won Game 3 here against the Warriors last season. History repeats itself at "The Q" on Wednesday night. 10* |
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06-08-16 | Warriors v. Cavs OVER 205 | Top | 90-120 | Win | 100 | 24 h 53 m | Show |
I'm playing on GS and Cleveland to finish OVER the total. The Cavs weren't able to score at GS. As a result, both games stayed well below the total. While those results have worked in our favor by bringing the O/U number down, I expect the change of venue to bring a much different result. Even if they don't win, the Cavs will surely be more competitive here in "Lebron's house." They've hit triple-digits in 14 straight games here and you have to go back months to find the last time they managed less than 99 here. The Warriors give up considerably more points on the road than they do at home; they're allowing 107.3 ppg on the road on the season. They still score nearly as many though, averaging 112.9 ppg when leaving the Bay Area. This season's regular season meeting here produced a whopping 230 combined points and I'm expecting another high-scoring affair here. 10* |
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06-05-16 | Cavs v. Warriors OVER 206.5 | Top | 77-110 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 12 m | Show |
I'm playing on Clev and GS to finish OVER the total in Game 2. The Cavs only put up 89 points in Game 1. That meant that the Warriors didn't need to keep scoring, as they had the game in hand. While I'm not sure whether or not it'll be enough to win/cover, I do expect a much better offensive effort from Lebron and co. in Game 2. They've seen six of nine games finish above the total, when off a double-digit loss. The last time they were off any kind of a loss, the Cavs responded with 116 points in their next game. With the Cavs scoring more, the Warriors, who still average better than 115 ppg on this floor, will be forced to do the same. Off three consecutive "unders," note that the OVER is 4-1 when GS has seen its previous three games dip below the total. The only previous time it happened in these playoffs, their next game finished with 224 points, finishing above the number by double-digits. Expect another high-scoring affair. 10* |
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06-02-16 | Cavs v. Warriors OVER 210 | Top | 89-104 | Loss | -111 | 38 h 21 m | Show |
I'm playing on CLEV/GS to finish OVER the total. The last meeting between these teams produced 230 combined points, all of them in regulation. I'm expecting this evening's opener to be another high-scoring affair. While the Warriors may have won with defense in Game 7, they're still averaging better than 110 ppg (110.9) in the playoffs and better than 115 ppg (115.5) here at home on the season overall. The Cavs are putting up nearly as many points in these playoffs, averaging a healthy 106.9 ppg. They've connected on 47.5% of their shots in the playoffs, including 48.6% their last five games, taking their offensive efficiency to another level from what we saw in the regular season. The Cavs have seen the OVER go 3-1 on the road, when the O/U line was 210 or greater. Look for those stats to improve tonight as both teams hit triple-digits, the final score finishing above the number. 10* |
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05-30-16 | Thunder +7.5 v. Warriors | Top | 88-96 | Loss | -109 | 36 h 29 m | Show |
I'm playing on OKC. At this point, one could easily make a case for either team. The champs seemingly have the momentum back on their side and are obviously very happy to be back home. The Thunder have already proven that they can win here though, while also showing that they can compete with this team every step of the way. While they obviously blew a golden opportunity, I don't expect them to just roll over tonight. Far from it. While the Warriors have actually gone just 2-6 SU their last eight when tied in a playoff series (0-1 SU/ATS this year) the Thunder are already 3-1 ATS in that situation these playoffs. The last two games have both been decided by single digits. I expect this one to come down to the wire and am grabbing the generous points. 10* |
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05-30-16 | Thunder v. Warriors OVER 217.5 | Top | 88-96 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 17 m | Show |
I'm playing on GS and OKC to finish OVER the total. The Warriors scored the "upset" in Game 6 to force a winner-take-all game tonight. Note that the OVER is 11-4 the last 15 times that the Warriors were off an upset victory, 3-0 this season. Off that upset home loss, note that the Thunder have seen the OVER go 10-4 the last 14 times that they attempted to avenge a home loss. The last game here produced 231 combined points. I don't expect either team to just "go away" and look for the scoring to continue the entire way. Expect offensive fireworks. 10* |
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05-28-16 | Warriors v. Thunder UNDER 221 | Top | 108-101 | Win | 100 | 37 h 31 m | Show |
I'm playing on GS/OKC to finish UNDER the total. It takes some courage to play an 'under' with two very high-scoring teams. I believe its the right way to go this evening though. Game 5 was on pace to finish below the total if not for a 70+ point 4th quarter. Game 4, the last here at OKC, did finish below the total, with 212 points. Even with the last game finishing above the number, the UNDER is still 7-3 in GSW's last 10 conference final appearances and 7-4 in OKC's last 11. The UNDER also remains a healthy 5-2 the last seven, when the Warriors were trailing in a playoff series. Lastly, the UNDER is 7-3 the last 10 times that the Warriors were road underdogs of three or fewer points and 6-4 the last 10 times that OKC was a home favorite of three or less. When the smoke clears, look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. 10* |
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05-27-16 | Cavs -6 v. Raptors | Top | 113-87 | Win | 100 | 34 h 58 m | Show |
I'm playing on CLEVELAND. I successfully backed the Raptors in both the previous two games here at Toronto. While I still have a lot of respect for the Raptors, I'm switching up for Game 6 and going with the Cavs. Throughout the earlier part of these playoffs, the Raptors were facing a lot of pressure. They'd underperformed in the playoffs in previous seasons and they were expected to do a lot better this year. They battled adversity and fought their way to the Eastern Finals. Now, having gotten this far, they can hold their heads high, regardless of what happens tonight. As great a season as they've had, I don't believe that the Raptors, who were destroyed 116-78 in Game 5, are quite ready to "take the next step." Off their anemic offensive showing in Game 5, it should be noted that Toronto is 0-6 ATS this season, after being limited to 85 or fewer points in their previous game. Most recently, after managing only 84 points in Game 1 of this series, they were blown out by 19 points in Game 2. On the other hand, the Cavs are 9-4 ATS the last 13 times that they held their previous opponent to 85 or fewer points, 20-9 ATS (22-7 SU) their last 29 in that situation. They don't want to have to go back to Cleveland to play a Game 7 and I don't expect that they'll need to. 10* |
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05-26-16 | Thunder v. Warriors -7 | Top | 111-120 | Win | 100 | 23 h 3 m | Show |
I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE. The Warriors were beaten so badly the last two games that many will likely be avoiding them tonight. Not me. They're still the champs and they're still an incredible 46-3 on this floor. Even with the Game 4 loss, the Warriors are still 5-1 ATS their last six when trailing in a playoff series, 47-27-3 ATS the past few seasons, when playing with 'revenge.' During that stretch, they're also 22-10-1 ATS as home favorites in the 6.5 to 9 range. While winning the series won't be easy, the Warriors take the first step by bouncing back big tonight. 10* |
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05-25-16 | Raptors v. Cavs UNDER 199 | Top | 78-116 | Win | 100 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
I'm playing on Clev/Tor UNDER the total. I won with the Raptors in both games at Toronto. However, with the series shifting back to Cleveland, I'm shifting back to the total. The Raptors have seen the UNDER go 11-4 the last 15 times that they were off an "upset" win, a profitable 27-13 UNDER mark their last 40 in that situation. The Cavs have seen the UNDER go 44-33 the past few seasons, after allowing 105 or more in their previous game. The only previous time it happened in these playoffs was Game 3 at Atlanta. Not surprisingly, the next game stayed below the total, finishing with 30 fewer points than Game 3. The Raptors failed to crack the 90 point mark in either of their first two playoff games here. I'm expecting a relatively low-scoring affair. 10* |
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05-24-16 | Warriors -1.5 v. Thunder | Top | 94-118 | Loss | -100 | 35 h 15 m | Show |
I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE. As you know, the Thunder destroyed the Warriors in Game 3 and lead the series 2-1. Obviously, OKC was the much better team last time out. That was only one game though and I'm betting on the champs to bounce back. Curry and co. have been here before. In fact, in last year’s playoff run, they trailed 2-1 two different times. Each time they bounced back. When trailing 2-1 against the Cavs, playing at Cleveland for Game 4, the Warriors responded with a 103-82 blowout win. Prior to that, after losing Game 3 against the Grizzlies by double-digits, the Warriors responded with a 101-84 victory, at Memphis, in Game 4. Keep in mind that this year’s team hasn’t lost twice in a row all season. They’re 19-8 ATS off a double-digit loss and 5-0 ATS the last five times that they were trailing in a series. After they lost the opening game of this series, I came back with a big play on the Warriors in Game 2. At the time, I closed my analysis with the following statement: "This is a special team and I expect them to remind everyone of that tonight." I feel the same way here. 10* GOW |
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05-23-16 | Cavs v. Raptors +6 | Top | 99-105 | Win | 100 | 35 h 36 m | Show |
I'm playing on TORONTO. The Raptors sure aren't getting much respect. They've won four straight and 16 of their last 20 here. Their overall home record is far superior to Cleveland's road record: 39-11 to 28-18. They've also now beaten the Cavs three straight times on this floor. Yet, due to the majority of the betting public being enamored with Lebron and co., the oddsmaker is forced to again make the Cavs a fairly heavy favorite. I believe thats (again) providing excellent value with the home underdog. The Raptors confidence is restored. While they certainly want more, they've now done enough to hold their heads high - and I believe that the pressure they felt earlier in the playoffs has eased, as result. The Raptors held the Cavs to just 84 points (99-84) in Game 3. That's noteworthy as the Cavs are a money-burning 7-19 ATS the last 26 times that they scored 85 or less in their previous game. With the Cavs also 8-18 ATS their last 26 as road favorites in the 3.5 to 6 range, I'm grabbing all those points. 10* |
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05-22-16 | Warriors v. Thunder OVER 219.5 | Top | 105-133 | Win | 100 | 76 h 59 m | Show |
I'm playing on GS/OKC to finish OVER the total. Both games at Golden State finished below the total. With the venue shifting to OKC for Game 3, I'm expect a higher-scoring contest. The Warriors' last two visits here produced 239 and 242 points, respectively. In fact, six of the last seven meetings here have finished above the total. As you know, GS won big in Game 2. That's noteworthy as we find the OVER at 4-2 this season when the Thunder were off a double-digit loss. With the Warriors currently favored by three points, at most shops, note that the OVER is also 6-1 the last seven times that the Thunder were listed as home underdogs of three or fewer points. As for the Warriors, they've seen the OVER go 2-1 as road favorites of three or less and 22-15 when playing a road game with an O/U line of 210 or greater. With so much firepower on the floor, its only a matter of time before we seen an "offensive explosion." I say this will be the night that we do. 10* |
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05-21-16 | Cavs v. Raptors +5.5 | Top | 84-99 | Win | 100 | 37 h 40 m | Show |
I'm playing on TORONTO. Needless to say, the Cavs have been very impressive in these playoffs and this series. That said, I expect them to finally taste defeat this evening. The Raptors are very well-coached, they've got a lot of depth, they play with passion and they've got an entire country behind them. I expect their very best effort here. The Cavs are only 8-17-1 ATS the last 26 times that they were listed as road favorites in the 3.5 to 6 range, 4-7 ATS this season. Meanwhile, the Raptors were 2-0 ATS as home underdogs in the 3.5 to 6 range. (They won both games outright.) Despite being small underdogs each time, the Raptors beat the Cavs in both regular season meetings here this season. I'll gladly take the points but I'm expecting another 'upset' tonight. 10* |
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05-19-16 | Raptors +12 v. Cavs | Top | 89-108 | Loss | -103 | 28 h 21 m | Show |
I'm playing on TORONTO. Perhaps all the emotion from the previous series caught up with them. Perhaps, they were exhausted. Whatever the reason, the Raptors didn't show up for Game 1 of this series. Don't expect a repeat performance. The Raptors have been at their very best off a loss as they haven't lost two straight in well over a month. In fact, they're a perfect 6-0 SU off a loss in the playoffs. They're also 11-3 SU on the season, off a double-digit loss. The Cavs, on the other hand, were just 16-21 ATS this season, off a double-digit win. Look for them to have their hands full the entire way tonight. 10* |
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05-18-16 | Thunder v. Warriors -8 | Top | 91-118 | Win | 100 | 37 h 23 m | Show |
I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE. The Thunder have shown that they're for real. Now, its time for the defending champs to flex their muscles. The Warriors had an extended layoff before Game 1 and perhaps that affected them negatively. Either way, they've been money off an upset loss all year, going 7-2-1 ATS and a perfect 10-0 SU. They're also 9-2 ATS (11-0 SU!) the last 11 times that they played with "revenge." Going back further finds them at a lucrative 46-26-3 ATS (59-16 SU) their last 75 in that situation. This is the first time that the Warriors have trailed in a series in these playoffs. However, it should be noted that they're a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS their last, when trailing in a playoff series. This is a special team and I expect them to remind everyone of that tonight. 10* |
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05-17-16 | Raptors v. Cavs UNDER 202 | Top | 84-115 | Win | 100 | 29 h 27 m | Show |
I'm playing on Clev and Toronto to finish UNDER the total. Even with the final few games of the Miami series finishing above the total, the Raptors have still seen the UNDER go a profitable 9-5 in the playoffs. That includes a 5-1 UNDER mark when they played on the road. Note that ALL six of their road games have finished with 194 or fewer combined points, five of them finishing in the 180s. The Cavs have been off for an extended amount of time and that could potentially lead to some early rust on the offensive side of the ball. Note that the UNDER is 5-1 the last six times that Cleveland played with three or more day's rest in between games. While the Raptors have seen three straight games finish above the total, that rarely lasts with this team. The UNDER is 19-11 the last 30 times that they saw their previous three or more games top the number. Look for those stats to improve tonight, defense taking center stage in Game 1. 10* best bet |
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05-16-16 | Thunder v. Warriors UNDER 223.5 | Top | 108-102 | Win | 100 | 80 h 14 m | Show |
I'm playing on GS and OKC to finish UNDER the total. This series features some of the top offensive players on the planet. Naturally, the O/U line for Game 1 is very high. With all due respect to the offenses, I believe that it'll prove to be too high. While the last two meetings between these teams at Oklahoma City have both topped the total, the last three here at Golden State have all finished below the number. The Thunder have seen the UNDER go 3-1 the last four times that they played with three or more day's rest, 4-2 their last six in the Conference Finals AND 5-2 as a road underdog in the 6.5 to 9 range. Meanwhile, the Warriors saw the UNDER go 4-1 in the Conf. Finals last season and they've also seen the UNDER go 6-2 their last eight as home favorites in the 6.5 to 9 range. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than most will be expecting. 10* |
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05-12-16 | Spurs -117 v. Thunder | Top | 99-113 | Loss | -117 | 23 h 37 m | Show |
I'm playing SAN ANTONIO on the money-line. The Spurs have been "money" off an upset loss all year. For many years, for that matter. They're 41-9 SU the last 50 times that they were in that situation, a profitable 31-17-2 ATS. While the Thunder are obviously a very good team, I still believe that the Spurs are the more complete team. With their backs to the wall, I look for them to bounce back with their best effort tonight. Games have been so close and the price on the money-line is reasonable enough that I'm recommending a play on the money-line. 9* |
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Ben Burns Basketball Top Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-14-16 | Celtics v. Spurs UNDER 201 | Top | 101-108 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 50 m | Show |
12-14-16 | Kings +9.5 v. Rockets | Top | 98-132 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 26 m | Show |
12-14-16 | UL-Lafayette v. Georgia -9 | Top | 60-73 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
12-13-16 | UC Riverside v. Santa Clara -5 | Top | 53-77 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
12-13-16 | Knicks v. Suns OVER 220 | Top | 111-113 | Win | 100 | 25 h 1 m | Show |
12-13-16 | Morehead State +3 v. Eastern Washington | Top | 86-88 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
12-13-16 | Wolves v. Bulls -7 | Top | 99-94 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
12-12-16 | South Carolina v. Seton Hall -1.5 | Top | 64-67 | Win | 100 | 13 h 26 m | Show |
12-12-16 | Wizards -1 v. Heat | Top | 101-112 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 32 m | Show |
12-11-16 | UC-Irvine v. St. Mary's -18 | Top | 53-84 | Win | 100 | 25 h 39 m | Show |
12-10-16 | Bucks v. Wizards -4 | Top | 105-110 | Win | 100 | 9 h 37 m | Show |
12-10-16 | La Salle v. Georgetown -4 | Top | 78-93 | Win | 100 | 19 h 48 m | Show |
12-09-16 | Georgia Southern v. Minnesota -12.5 | Top | 49-86 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
12-09-16 | Pacers v. Mavs +5 | Top | 103-111 | Win | 100 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
12-08-16 | Nuggets v. Wizards -6 | Top | 85-92 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
12-08-16 | Fordham v. St. John's -5 | Top | 62-90 | Win | 100 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
12-07-16 | Warriors v. Clippers +4.5 | Top | 115-98 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
12-07-16 | TCU v. SMU -4 | Top | 59-74 | Win | 100 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
12-07-16 | Pistons v. Hornets -5.5 | Top | 77-87 | Win | 100 | 26 h 43 m | Show |
12-06-16 | Suns +7.5 v. Jazz | Top | 105-112 | Win | 100 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
12-06-16 | Old Dominion v. Rhode Island -10 | Top | 39-51 | Win | 100 | 23 h 13 m | Show |
12-05-16 | Spurs v. Bucks +6.5 | Top | 97-96 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
12-05-16 | Wizards v. Nets UNDER 219.5 | Top | 118-113 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
12-03-16 | Heat v. Blazers -6.5 | Top | 92-99 | Win | 100 | 14 h 19 m | Show |
12-03-16 | Oklahoma State v. Maryland -2 | Top | 70-71 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
12-03-16 | Nets +9.5 v. Bucks | Top | 103-112 | Win | 100 | 7 h 41 m | Show |
12-02-16 | Rockets v. Nuggets -2.5 | Top | 128-110 | Loss | -103 | 14 h 11 m | Show |
12-02-16 | Alabama v. Texas -3.5 | Top | 68-77 | Win | 100 | 15 h 59 m | Show |
12-02-16 | Wizards v. Spurs UNDER 202 | Top | 105-107 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 5 m | Show |
12-01-16 | Cincinnati +6 v. Iowa State | Top | 55-54 | Win | 100 | 14 h 17 m | Show |
12-01-16 | Mavs v. Hornets -10.5 | Top | 87-97 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
12-01-16 | Columbia v. Seton Hall -15.5 | Top | 71-95 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show |
11-30-16 | UC-Irvine v. Santa Clara -1 | Top | 58-55 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 8 m | Show |
11-30-16 | Lakers v. Bulls -10.5 | Top | 96-90 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
11-29-16 | Lakers v. Pelicans -5 | Top | 88-105 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
11-28-16 | Butler v. Utah +2.5 | Top | 68-59 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
11-28-16 | Kings v. Wizards -4.5 | Top | 95-101 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
11-27-16 | Clippers v. Pacers +10.5 | Top | 70-91 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
11-26-16 | Knicks v. Hornets -5 | Top | 102-107 | Push | 0 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
11-25-16 | Clippers v. Pistons +6.5 | Top | 97-108 | Win | 100 | 26 h 54 m | Show |
11-24-16 | Santa Clara +17 v. Arizona | Top | 61-69 | Win | 100 | 14 h 29 m | Show |
11-22-16 | Utah State v. Purdue -10 | Top | 64-85 | Win | 100 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
11-22-16 | Pelicans v. Hawks -8 | Top | 112-94 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
11-20-16 | Blazers -4 v. Nets | Top | 129-109 | Win | 100 | 8 h 1 m | Show |
11-19-16 | Pacific +4.5 v. UC-Irvine | Top | 65-72 | Loss | -119 | 14 h 4 m | Show |
11-19-16 | Warriors v. Bucks +8 | Top | 124-121 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
11-18-16 | USC v. Texas A&M -7.5 | Top | 65-63 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
11-17-16 | 76ers v. Wolves -11 | Top | 86-110 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
11-17-16 | Providence v. Ohio State -6.5 | Top | 67-72 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
11-16-16 | UC Riverside v. UNLV -6.5 | Top | 62-74 | Win | 100 | 15 h 59 m | Show |
11-16-16 | Cavs v. Pacers +4.5 | Top | 93-103 | Win | 100 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
11-15-16 | Bulls v. Blazers -3 | Top | 113-88 | Loss | -115 | 30 h 23 m | Show |
11-14-16 | South Dakota State v. UC-Irvine -3 | Top | 58-73 | Win | 100 | 14 h 23 m | Show |
11-14-16 | Magic v. Pacers -6 | Top | 69-88 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
11-13-16 | Yale v. Washington -10 | Top | 98-90 | Loss | -115 | 27 h 59 m | Show |
11-13-16 | Lakers v. Wolves -4 | Top | 99-125 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
11-11-16 | Indiana v. Kansas -5.5 | Top | 103-99 | Loss | -106 | 37 h 9 m | Show |
11-11-16 | Pacers v. 76ers UNDER 213 | Top | 105-109 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 25 m | Show |
11-10-16 | Lakers v. Kings -4.5 | Top | 101-91 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 11 m | Show |
11-09-16 | Wolves v. Magic -2.5 | Top | 123-107 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 0 m | Show |
11-08-16 | Mavs +5 v. Lakers | Top | 109-97 | Win | 100 | 30 h 1 m | Show |
11-08-16 | Nuggets v. Grizzlies -2 | Top | 107-108 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 25 m | Show |
11-06-16 | Bucks v. Mavs -2 | Top | 75-86 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
11-05-16 | Nuggets v. Pistons -4 | Top | 86-103 | Win | 100 | 23 h 48 m | Show |
11-04-16 | Suns v. Pelicans -3 | Top | 112-111 | Loss | -106 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
11-04-16 | Heat v. Raptors UNDER 200.5 | Top | 87-96 | Win | 100 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
11-03-16 | Thunder v. Warriors -10.5 | Top | 96-122 | Win | 100 | 14 h 5 m | Show |
11-02-16 | Pistons v. Nets +5 | Top | 101-109 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
11-02-16 | Rockets v. Knicks -1.5 | Top | 118-99 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
11-01-16 | Kings v. Heat -3.5 | Top | 96-108 | Win | 100 | 29 h 52 m | Show |
10-31-16 | Nuggets v. Raptors -7 | Top | 102-105 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 21 m | Show |
10-30-16 | Lakers v. Thunder -7.5 | Top | 96-113 | Win | 100 | 27 h 4 m | Show |
10-29-16 | Grizzlies v. Knicks -3 | Top | 104-111 | Win | 100 | 28 h 5 m | Show |
10-27-16 | Wizards v. Hawks UNDER 204.5 | Top | 99-114 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 30 m | Show |
10-26-16 | Mavs v. Pacers -6 | Top | 121-130 | Win | 100 | 45 h 12 m | Show |
10-25-16 | Jazz v. Blazers -5.5 | Top | 104-113 | Win | 100 | 48 h 13 m | Show |
06-19-16 | Cavs v. Warriors -5 | Top | 93-89 | Loss | -110 | 68 h 59 m | Show |
06-19-16 | Cavs v. Warriors UNDER 206.5 | Top | 93-89 | Win | 100 | 60 h 52 m | Show |
06-16-16 | Warriors v. Cavs -2 | Top | 101-115 | Win | 100 | 38 h 4 m | Show |
06-13-16 | Cavs v. Warriors OVER 204.5 | Top | 112-97 | Win | 100 | 13 h 25 m | Show |
06-10-16 | Warriors v. Cavs OVER 206 | Top | 108-97 | Loss | -105 | 32 h 20 m | Show |
06-08-16 | Warriors v. Cavs +1 | Top | 90-120 | Win | 100 | 52 h 19 m | Show |
06-08-16 | Warriors v. Cavs OVER 205 | Top | 90-120 | Win | 100 | 24 h 53 m | Show |
06-05-16 | Cavs v. Warriors OVER 206.5 | Top | 77-110 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 12 m | Show |
06-02-16 | Cavs v. Warriors OVER 210 | Top | 89-104 | Loss | -111 | 38 h 21 m | Show |
05-30-16 | Thunder +7.5 v. Warriors | Top | 88-96 | Loss | -109 | 36 h 29 m | Show |
05-30-16 | Thunder v. Warriors OVER 217.5 | Top | 88-96 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 17 m | Show |
05-28-16 | Warriors v. Thunder UNDER 221 | Top | 108-101 | Win | 100 | 37 h 31 m | Show |
05-27-16 | Cavs -6 v. Raptors | Top | 113-87 | Win | 100 | 34 h 58 m | Show |
05-26-16 | Thunder v. Warriors -7 | Top | 111-120 | Win | 100 | 23 h 3 m | Show |
05-25-16 | Raptors v. Cavs UNDER 199 | Top | 78-116 | Win | 100 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
05-24-16 | Warriors -1.5 v. Thunder | Top | 94-118 | Loss | -100 | 35 h 15 m | Show |
05-23-16 | Cavs v. Raptors +6 | Top | 99-105 | Win | 100 | 35 h 36 m | Show |
05-22-16 | Warriors v. Thunder OVER 219.5 | Top | 105-133 | Win | 100 | 76 h 59 m | Show |
05-21-16 | Cavs v. Raptors +5.5 | Top | 84-99 | Win | 100 | 37 h 40 m | Show |
05-19-16 | Raptors +12 v. Cavs | Top | 89-108 | Loss | -103 | 28 h 21 m | Show |
05-18-16 | Thunder v. Warriors -8 | Top | 91-118 | Win | 100 | 37 h 23 m | Show |
05-17-16 | Raptors v. Cavs UNDER 202 | Top | 84-115 | Win | 100 | 29 h 27 m | Show |
05-16-16 | Thunder v. Warriors UNDER 223.5 | Top | 108-102 | Win | 100 | 80 h 14 m | Show |
05-12-16 | Spurs -117 v. Thunder | Top | 99-113 | Loss | -117 | 23 h 37 m | Show |