Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
03-14-21 | Clippers v. Pelicans UNDER 236.5 | Top | 115-135 | Loss | -112 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
I'm playing on LA/NO UNDER the total. When these teams faced each other a couple of months ago, the O/U line was 216. They combined for 217. We're working with a much higher total tonight, which I believe is providing excellent value. Given the way both defenses performed last game, I expect that number to prove to be too high. Last time out, the Clippers held the Warriors to just 104 points. The Pelicans were even stingier in their last game. They limited Cleveland to a mere 82 points. The last time that they faced a "playoff team" from last year, as they'll be doing tonight, was 3/4 against Miami. They lost that one by a score of 103-93, the game staying below the total by nearly 30 points. I like the fact that Reddick is out for the Pelicans. He can still knock down 3-point shots in a hurry. Look for this one to prove lower scoring than many will be expecting, the UNDER improving to 6-2 when the Clippers play a game with an O/U line in the 130s. |
|||||||
03-14-21 | Ohio State v. Illinois UNDER 150.5 | Top | 88-91 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 51 m | Show |
I'm playing on Ohio State / Illinois UNDER the total. The Buckeyes played extremely stingy defense in holding Michigan to 67 points yesterday. Illinois also did very well in keeping Iowa to 71. Keep in mind that Iowa was averaging a whopping 84.2 ppg while Michigan was averaging 76.7. While Illinois can also put up a lot of points, the Buckeyes just held them to 73 a week ago. Their problem was that they only scored 68 themselves. That game had an O/U line of 150 or 151 and finished with 141. A look at the past 20 meetings, prior to last week, reveals that they all had O/U lines in the 120s, 130s and 140s. With all due respect to the Illini offense, I feel this one is generously high, once again. |
|||||||
03-14-21 | VCU v. St Bonaventure -1.5 | Top | 65-74 | Win | 100 | 68 h 26 m | Show |
I'm playing on ST. BONAVENTURE. The Rams have done a great job. They lost all their starters from last year and were very young coming into this season. Picked #7 in the preseason, they deserve a lot of credit for getting this far. That said, I feel that their youth will finally catch up with them against an experienced St Bonaventure team. The Bonnies were the opposite of the Rams in that they brought back all their starters from the previous season. While they were only projected to be fourth in the conference, like VCU, the Bonnies exceeded the expectations of many. Still, their spot in this game is arguably far less surprising than VCU. While the teams did split two reg. season meetings, the Bonnies held a 134-121 edge in total points. The Bonnies average the most offensive rebounds in the conference and the Rams give up a lot of them. Ultimately, however, its the Bonnies' superior defense whiich will see them win this one. The Bonnies have allowed 53, 59, 55, 41, 53 and 58 their last six games. No team has reached 60. VCU, on the other hand, has allowed 65 or more points in four of its past five games. VCU should be in great shape next season, but this one belongs to St. Bonaventure. |
|||||||
03-13-21 | Pacers +7 v. Suns | Top | 122-111 | Win | 100 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
I'm playing on INDIANA. We're getting some extra line value with the Pacers due to the fact that they played last night. However, one must always keep in mind that not all b2b spots are equal. In this case, (most of) the Pacers had the All Star Break off, prior to last night. So, they're aren't playing a third game in four nights or anything. Rather, they had a chance to shake off the rust and they should be in good shape tonight. Note that Chris LeVert was held out last night but will make his debut for the Pacers tonight. Even in limited minutes, he provides a boost and some fresh legs. The Pacers are going to be hungry to snap their skid and to avenge an earlier home loss, to these same Suns. While the Suns are obviously no slouches, Indiana has some more really tough games coming up. That makes finding a way to win here that much more urgent. Sabonis is a monster and Brogdon is off a monster game of his own. Look for the revenge-minded Pacers to give their hosts all they can handle with a great shot at the outright win. |
|||||||
03-13-21 | Georgetown v. Creighton -7.5 | Top | 73-48 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
I'm playing on CREIGHTON. To their credit, the Hoyas have been playing great. However, they've run into a superior opponent here and I believe that their run will come to a convincing halt. Keep in mind that the Bluejays were expected to finish 2nd in the conference, before the season. Georgetown was projected, by some, to finish last. So, the Hoyas have already exceeded expectations. Eventually, however, talent wins out. The Hoyas managed a major upset of the Bluejays on Feb 3rd, as they were 14 point road underdogs. That woke up the Bluejays though and they crushed the Hoyas in the rematch, a 63-48 beatdown, at Georgetown. Today, the Bluejays catch the Hoyas playing their fourth game in four days. While Gtown had to play on 3/10, Creighton had the day off. That extra day will catch up with the Hoyas here. Look for the Bluejays to blow out the Hoyas, the favorite improving to 5-1 ATS the last six meetings. |
|||||||
03-13-21 | Oklahoma State v. Texas UNDER 145 | Top | 86-91 | Loss | -119 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
I'm playing on OSU/Texas UNDER the total. The Cowboys saw yesterday's game against Baylor finish above the number. However, they'll face a much different type of team in Texas. While Baylor was averaging 84.8 ppg, the Longhorns average 72.3 ppg. Meanwhile, they also allow 66.6 ppg on the road. The Cowboys were able to beat the Baylor defense down the floor but I don't expect that strategy to ve so effective today. Rather, I expect a considerably slower tempo than we saw yesterday. Keep in mind that the last meeting between these teams went to OT and yet they still combined for just 142 points. While only 14 points were scored in OT, they still had just 130 in regulation. All things considered, this number is generously high. Expect another relatively low-scoring affair, the final combined score staying beneath the total. |
|||||||
03-13-21 | Ohio State +6 v. Michigan | Top | 68-67 | Win | 100 | 19 h 39 m | Show |
I'm playing on OHIO STATE. Michigan has some some chinks in its armor lately. The rival Spartans beat them to close the season and yesterday saw Maryland jump all over them out of the gate. Remember, Illinois pounded them to begin the month, too. While the Wolverines did come back to win and cover yesterday, I expect them to have an even tougher task against a revenge-minded Buckeye team which appears to be peaking at just the right time. Ohio State had been absolutely rolling before a 5-point loss to these same Wolverines on 2/21. That led to a 4-game slide, a 5-game skid at the betting window. The Buckeyes bounced back when it mattered though, beating Minnesota Thursday and Purdue yesterday. Order restored and looking to avenge the loss that started their skid, I expect the best of the Buckeyes in this one. The Buckeyes are 6-1 ATS their last seven, after a SU win. Expect them to give Michigan all it can handle, with a great shot at the outright win. |
|||||||
03-12-21 | Pacers v. Lakers OVER 216.5 | Top | 100-105 | Loss | -106 | 15 h 26 m | Show |
I'm playing on Indiana/LA OVER the total. I feel that this number is too low. Over the years, the OVER is a profitable 97-71 when the Lakers played with three or more day's rest in between games. Playing their first game back from the break, I'm expecting those stats to imrpove this evening. The Lakers have played much higher-scoring games at home than they have on the road. Not only do they score more at home, they also allow more. Games here are averaging 222.6 points. Indiana road games, meanwhile, are averaging 225.3 points. Note that the OVER is 12-5 when the Pacers played on the road. The most recent meeting between these teams produced 227 points, finishing above the total of 220. Look for tonights game to also prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting. |
|||||||
03-12-21 | Nuggets v. Grizzlies +3.5 | Top | 103-102 | Win | 100 | 28 h 37 m | Show |
I'm playing on MEMPHIS. I like how this one sets up for the Grizzlies. Memphis got a chance to play Wednesday. The Grizzlies looked great, too. I said this of them before that game: "... They can score ... They put up 125 against these same Wizards before the break and are averaging 123 ppg their last three ... " Sure enough, the Grizzlies scored 127. It was an impressive team win, along with a dominant performance (29/20!) from center Valančiūnas. Unlike the Grizzlies, the Nuggets haven't played in a long time. Their last game was on 3/4. Note that Denver is just 4-7 ATS the past couple of seasons, when playing with three or more day's rest in between games. Last time in that situation, the Nuggets got blown out by 21. I also like that the Grizzlies have tomorrow off while the Nuggets return home for a big game against Dallas tomorrow. Including a 104-96 win over the Nuggets the last time the teams faced each other, the Grizzlies are 24-11-1 ATS their last 36 against teams from the Northwest. Expect them to improve on those stats Friday night. |
|||||||
03-12-21 | Oklahoma State v. Baylor -9 | Top | 83-74 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
I'm playing on BAYLOR. The Cowboys have been on a great run but I expect it to come to an end in a big way today. Baylor won both this season's meetings by double-digits. The Bears are on a different level. They score 85.3 ppg and they allow just 65.6. By comparison, the Cowboys score 76.7 and allow 72.3. They're 9-2 ATS their last 11 on a neutral court, 3-0 ATS their last three. While dominant at home, the Bears can win on the road, too. The Cowboys learned that the hard way. They had a 34-25 late in the first half in this season's game at Stillwater, but the Bears fought back to win 81-66. Baylor trailed 50-48 with 12 minutes left, then went on a 19-1 run and led by double-digits the rest of the way. Indeed, this team will be hard to keep up with the entire way. Look for yesterday's game vs. K-State to serve as a "wake up call" and for the Bears to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way here, en route to a third double-digit win over the Cowboys. |
|||||||
03-12-21 | Maryland v. Michigan OVER 133 | Top | 66-79 | Win | 100 | 4 h 23 m | Show |
I'm playing on Maryland/Michigan OVER the total. These teams have both been involved in some 'unders' recently. Both are off a low-scoring game against Michigan State. Thats not surprising (I had the under in Michigan/MSU) though, as the Spartans are somewhat offensively challenged but still capable of playing stingy defense. This is a much different matchup though and I expect a faster tempo (and considerably more points) than the games against the Spartans. The recent low scores have worked in our favor, as this O/U line is lower than it easily could have been. Consider that this season's two meetings had O/U lines of 142.5 and 143.5. Speaking of those games, despite the higher O/U lines, they both finished well above the number with combined scores of 150 and 157. Look for this one to also prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting. |
|||||||
03-11-21 | Texas Tech v. Texas UNDER 135.5 | Top | 66-67 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
I'm playing on Texas/Texas Tech UNDER the total. The last time that these teams met, they combined for 127 points, a 68-59 win for Texas Tech. That makes it five of the past six meetings which have finished with 130 or fewer combined points. I'm expecting another relatively low-scoring affair this evening. Both teams are stingy. The Raiders allow 63 ppg and hold opponents to 40.9% shooting. Texas holds opponents to a 40.9% field goal percentage, the number dipping to 40.4% when the Longhorns play away from home. Its also worth noting that the UNDER is a perfect 4-0 the past four times that the Longhorns were underdogs on a neutral court. Look for nothing to come easy on the offensive end, as those stats improve this evening. |
|||||||
03-11-21 | Knicks v. Bucks -11 | Top | 101-134 | Win | 100 | 27 h 53 m | Show |
I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. The break figures to be just what the Bucks needed. Rested and refreshed, I expect them to blow out the Knicks. Needless to say, the Bucks haven't forgotten that the Knicks pounded them, at MSG. That 130-110 beating was one of the low points of the first half and the Bucks will be anxious to have their revenge. Note that Milwaukee was favored by 13 points for that game, despite playing on the road. Now, playing at home, we're working with a lower line. Value. The Bucks have beaten the Knicks seven straight times here at Milwaukee. The last three of those wins, all Milwaukee covers, came by 26, 44 and 16 points. This season, the Knicks average 101.3 ppg on the road while the Bucks average 118.6 ppg at home. Payback time. |
|||||||
03-11-21 | Oregon State v. UCLA -4.5 | Top | 83-79 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 47 m | Show |
I'm playing on UCLA. The Bruins closed the reg. season with three straight losses. Those results have helped us by keep this line lower than it otherwise easily could have been, which I believe is providing us with excellent value. (The Bruins were -11.5 point favorites for this season's lone reg. season meeting.) Note that UCLA is 5-1 ATS the past six times it was off three straight defeats. The Beavers had a nice run towards the end of the season but got brought back down to earth in a big way by rival Oregon. I don't believe that they're going to be able to keep up with a motivated Bruins team. While the Bruins score 71.2 ppg on the road, the Beavers score just 63.4. The #4 seed is 14-7 all-time vs. the #5 seed, in the Pac 12 tournament. Expect the Bruins to improve on those stats Thursday, covering the relatively small number along the way. |
|||||||
03-10-21 | Wizards v. Grizzlies OVER 238 | Top | 112-127 | Win | 100 | 26 h 12 m | Show |
I'm playing on Washington/Memphis OVER the total. At first glance, this O/U number looks high. However, upon further review, it could easily be even higher. The Wizards allow 119.1 ppg. Only Sacramento (120.4 ppg) allows more. On the other side, they rank in the top 10 of the NBA in terms of points scored per game. They average 114.8. Matched up against Memphis, I don't expect to see much of any defense tonight. The Grizzlies aren't the stingy team that they used to be, in years past. They can score though. They put up 125 against these same Wizards before the break and are averaging 123 ppg their last three. Rested from the break, look for both teams to put up a big number, the OVER improving to 5-0 the past five times that the Grizzlies played with three or more day's rest in between games. |
|||||||
03-09-21 | Southern Miss +4.5 v. Rice | Top | 52-61 | Loss | -106 | 25 h 30 m | Show |
I'm playing on SOUTHERN MISS. Rice won both regular season meetings but the Owls haven't played well since. I don't believe that they should be favored by this much. Last time out, the Owls barely beat "Our Lady Of The Lake." Prior to that, the Owls had lost four straight, failing to cover in the final three of those. Those losses came by 21, 44 and 43 points. The Golden Eagles have been far more competitive. They're 1-2 SU their final three but both the losses were by single digits. Grab the points but don't be surprised when the Golden Eagles step up and score the upset, setting up a date with Marshall on Wednesday. |
|||||||
03-09-21 | Pepperdine +9 v. BYU | Top | 77-82 | Win | 100 | 30 h 13 m | Show |
I'm playing on PEPPERDINE. The Cougars are definitely tough and I respect them. The Waves are a lot better than many people realize though. This is a veteran team which has been waiting for this day. The Waves have already beaten BYU once this season (76-73 in the last meeting) and they believe that they're capable of doing so again. I like the fact that Pepperdine already has a tournament game under its belt. It beat Santa Clara 78-70 on Saturday. BYU, on the other hand, hasn't played yet this month. The Cougars are an ugly 43-69 ATS in neutral court games over the years while Pepperdine is a solid 50-39 ATS. That includes a 10-3 ATS mark in the Waves' last 13 neutral site games. The Cougars are 0-2 ATS their last two conf. tourney games, an ugly 11-28 ATS over the years. I expect the Waves to give then all they can handle and am grabbing the points. |
|||||||
03-07-21 | Michigan v. Michigan State UNDER 137 | Top | 64-70 | Win | 100 | 22 h 41 m | Show |
I'm playing on Michigan/MSU UNDER the total. These teams combined for only 119 points when they met a few days ago. Including that result, both teams have seen each of their past four games finish below the total. Normally, that would lead to the O/U number falling by quite a lot. However, in this case, we're still working with a relatively high total. Note that the Wolverines have seen the UNDER go a perfect 5-0 when playing a game with an O/U line in the 130s. The Spartans managed just 50 points in the first meeting; they've scored 55, 64 and 50 their past three games. The UNDER is 4-2 after they scored 60 or less in their previous game and 7-1 when Michigan allowed 60 or less in its previous. Expect another defensive affair. |
|||||||
03-06-21 | VMI v. Furman -7 | Top | 91-90 | Loss | -108 | 23 h 38 m | Show |
I'm playing on FURMAN. I believe that the gap between these teams is wider than the pointspread suggests. Consider that Furman was favored by 11 when the teams met in the reg. season. That was at VMI, too. The Keydets actually managed a 1-point win in that one. That works in our favor here, in my opinion, as it will ensure Furman takes take this game for granted. Keep in mind that Furman had won the previous 10 games in the series. The Keydets haven't played since way back on 2/20, which will hurt them here. The Paladins are 8-5 ATS (10-3 SU) off a conference loss. Expect them to improve on those stats in blowout fashion. |
|||||||
03-06-21 | Vanderbilt v. Ole Miss -8.5 | Top | 46-56 | Win | 100 | 23 h 14 m | Show |
I'm playing on OLE MISS. The Rebels have a lot working for them here. They're the superior team. They're playing at home. They're looking to avenge an earlier upset loss. They've also got the schedule working in their favor. Both teams played on 3/2. However, the Commodores also went and squeezed a non-conference road game in, at Cincinnati, on 3/4. That's going to catch up with them here. The last time these teams played here, the Rebels were laying -10.5 and won by 26. The Rebels are 4-1 ATS the past five times that they were home favorites in the -6.5 to -9 range. They're also 7-2 ATS (8-1 SU) the past nine times that they played a home game with an O/U line in the 135 to 139.5 range. Going back, finds them at 21-9 ATS in that situation. Additionally, the Rebels are 5-2 ATS the past seven times that they attempted to avenge a road loss. Catching the Commodores playing their third straight on the road, expect a blowout. |
|||||||
03-05-21 | Troy State v. Texas-Arlington -5.5 | Top | 91-86 | Loss | -112 | 13 h 5 m | Show |
I'm playing on TEXAS-ARLINGTON. The #3 seed Mavericks are favored for good reason in this one. The #6 seed Trojans score just 60.2 ppg when playing away from home. The Mavericks, on the other hand, score 72 ppg, when playing on the road. These teams didn't meet during the reg. season but they have met in the first week of March, each of the past two years. In both cases, the Mavericks won by double-digits, 78-64 on 3/3/20 and 79-66 on 3/2/19. They were laying -5.5 and -5 for those games. While Troy hasn't won a game in a month, Texas-Arlington is off b2b wins. Playing better basketball, I say the Mavericks take care of the Trojans, once again. *Top Sun Belt Tourney Play |
|||||||
03-04-21 | Bucks -5.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 112-111 | Loss | -111 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. After getting blown out last game, the Bucks are going to be all busness tonight. They're 33-17 ATS (38-12 SU) the past 50 times that they were off an upset loss. They're also 17-7-1 (19-6 SU) their last 25, after a double-digit loss. The Grizzlies typically can't keep up when high-scoring guests come to town. They're 3-8 ATS when playing a home game with an O/U line of 220 or more. When the line clmbs to 230 or more, they're 0-3 SU/ATS. In this case, the Bucks average 119.5 ppg on the road while the Grizzlies average 108.5 ppg at home. Look for the "angry" Bucks to put up a really big number and for the Grizzlies to be unable to keep up. |
|||||||
03-04-21 | Vanderbilt v. Cincinnati -6 | Top | 78-64 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
I'm playing on CINCINNATI. This is a unique situation, brought on by Covid. The Bearcats would normally be playing a conference opponent, as would the Commodores. The Bearcats were supposed to host SMU but with that game being put on pause, the teams were able to arrange this one. Not only do I believe it favors the home team, I also believe that a visit from a weak and struggling SEC team is exactly what the Bearcats need. The Bearcats have won six of eight and they nearly beat Memphis last time out. Coach Brannen noted: "I told the guys, 'If you just show that fight for a longer period of time, we would have won that game. I felt like we should have won this game." The Commodores are 3-9 their last 12 games and they got pounded last time out. That was on 3/2, which doesnt allow much time in between games. Not when taking this game on short notice and playing on the road. Cincy, by comparison, hasn't played since 2/27 and hasn't had to travel. The Bearcats are a perfect 17-0 SU the past 2+ seasons, against teams with losing records. Expect them to improve on those stats, while picking up the cover along the way. |
|||||||
03-03-21 | San Diego State v. UNLV +9.5 | Top | 71-62 | Win | 100 | 15 h 58 m | Show |
I'm playing on UNLV. On a 10-game winning streak, the Aztecs are tough to beat. Looking to clinch the regular season title, they've still got something to play for. That said, they just won their home finale and they've got bigger games ahead of them. I feel that this will prove to be a tough spot and also that the line is too high. The Rebels have quietly won three of their past four. The lone loss came by three points. After rallying from a 16-point deficit to win by two last time out, UNLV Coach T.J. Otzelberger had this to say: "I felt like down the stretch, even though we still weren’t perfect, it was as together as we’ve been as a team and I could tell in the huddle and as we communicated that the guys felt good about how they were playing together. Hopefully that’s something we can continue to build on as we move forward.”Speaking of close games, the Aztec won by just four points last time out and their previous game went to OT. Look for this one to also prove closer than many will be expecting. |
|||||||
03-03-21 | Hornets v. Wolves OVER 232 | Top | 135-102 | Win | 100 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
I'm playing on Charlotte/Minnesota OVER the total. These teams combined for 234 points a few weeks ago and they should get even more tonight. Charlotte has seen the OVER go 13-4 on the road. Not only do the Hornets allow more points on the road than they do at home, they also score more on the road. Including last month's meeting, the T-Wolves have seen the OVER go 20-6 the past 26 times that they faced a Southeastern Conf. opponent. The OVER is also 20-10 when the T-Wolves played with two day's rest in between games, 3-1 the past four. Charlotte's current road trip has seen scores of 242, 245, 251, 253 and 234. Expect another high-scoring affair. |
|||||||
03-03-21 | Pacers -5.5 v. Cavs | Top | 114-111 | Loss | -102 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
I'm playing on INDIANA. The Pacers badly need a victory and a date with the Cavs figures to be just what the doctor ordered. When these teams met earlier this season, on 12/31, Indiana won by a score of 119-99. Yes, the Cavs would like to avenge the earlier loss. However, they're just 6-16 ATS the last 22 times that they played with revenge from an earlier loss. Off their 101-90 win over the Rockets, note that Cleveland is 1-3 ATS (0-4 SU) the past four times it allowed 90 or fewer points in its previous game. I expect a big effort from the Pacers and am laying the points. |
|||||||
03-03-21 | Oregon State v. Utah -3.5 | Top | 75-70 | Loss | -117 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
I'm playing on UTAH. I like how this one sets up for the home team. Oregon State has been on an ATS roll but with a big game against archrival Oregon on deck, its going to be tough to focus on the Utes. Utah got back on track with a win over USC last time out and I expect that win to generate some positive momentum. While the Beavers won this season's earlier meeting at OSU, the Utes are a dominant 88-55 ATS over the years when attempting to avenge an earlier road loss. Also, note that Utah is 4-2 ATS its past six as a home favorite in the -3.5 to -6 range, a lucrative 29-16 ATS its last 45 in that role. The Utes won by 12 last meeting here and I expect another big win tonight. Lay the points. |
|||||||
03-02-21 | Suns v. Lakers -117 | Top | 114-104 | Loss | -117 | 25 h 30 m | Show |
I'm playing LA on the moneyline. While the Suns have been playing well, I don't think they're ready to go on the road and defeat the defending champs. After their 4-game skid, the Lakers have gotten back on track. They've won two in a row. They followed up a 9-point win over Portland by blowing out Golden State. The game was essentially over by the end of the firs quarter; the champs were clicking on all cylinders. Note that LA is 43-18 SU its last 61, off a double-digit win. The Suns are still 11-24 SU their last 35 divisional games. Last meeting was here and the Lakers were laying -13.5. They won by 25. They may not win by that much tonight but I absolutely expect another victory. |
|||||||
03-02-21 | Western Michigan v. Northern Illinois | Top | 73-63 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 16 m | Show |
I'm playing on NIU. Both teams are going to view this as an opportunity at a rare win. Playing at home, I expect the Huskies to be the team which gets it. While NIU's 23-16 home record the past 2+ seasons is certainly nothing special, it looks really good when compared to Western Michigan's 7-33 road record. This season, the Broncos are getting outscored by an average of 75.9 to 59.1 when playing on the road. With an O/U line in the low 130s, note that the Broncos are 0-7 their last seven games with a total in the 130s. The home team has won four straight in the series, NIU winning the last two here by scored of 72-69 and 76-74. Expect another victory for the home team. |
|||||||
03-01-21 | Oklahoma v. Oklahoma State UNDER 142 | Top | 75-79 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 40 m | Show |
I'm playing on Oklahoma/Oklahoma State UNDER the total. These teams played a very high-scoring game against each other a couple of nights ago. Future NBA draft pick Cade Cunningham had a career high 40 points and the game went to OT. Yes, the game would have still finished above the total without OT. However, take away those 34 OT points and its a lot closer to the number. Playing each other for the second time in three days, I expect the rematch to be considerably lower-scoring. The Cowboys have only allowed 80 or more points in two other instances. In both cases, their next game finished below the total. They allowed 60 and 67 their next game. Going back a bit and we find the UNDER is 8-4 their last 12 after allowing 80 or more. Going back still further finds the UNDER at a lucrative 63-38 when OSU played with one day's rest in between games. As for the Sooners, they've seen the UNDER go 18-6 the past 24 times that they'd scored 80 or more in their previous game. Going back further finds the UNDER at a profitable 38-18 when OU was attempting to avenge a home loss. The last time that the Sooners allowed 80 or more, they responded by allowing 56 their next game, that one finishing below the total by more than 20. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. |
|||||||
03-01-21 | Mavs v. Magic OVER 226 | Top | 130-124 | Win | 100 | 26 h 23 m | Show |
I'm playing on Dallas/Orlando OVER the total. Having just faced a few of the top teams in the East (Boston, Philly, Brooklyn) the Mavs step down in class to take on the Magic. Those games against the top teams all finished below the total. However, a game against Orlando should see the offense get rolling. (When they visited here last season, the Mavs scored 122 themselves and the game finished comfortably above the total.) Note that the OVER is 12-7 when the Mavs are favored. The Magic have given up 124 and 129 points their last two games. They've also seen the OVER go 5-2 when their previous three games were losses. Including last year's game here against Dallas, the OVER is 14-7 their last 21 against Southwest division opponents. Expect those stats to improve this evening. |
|||||||
02-28-21 | Knicks v. Pistons +1 | Top | 109-90 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
I'm playing on DETROIT. The Knicks have played fairly well. Last night's win brought them to 500 on the season. In the East, that's good enough to have them tied with the Raptors, with the fourth best record. Only Philadelphia, Brooklyn and Milwaukee have been better. The Knicks are still 7-10 on the road though and this is a tough spot. While they were leaving it all on the floor, in eking out the 3-point win at MSG, the Pistons were resting, waiting for them. The Pistons know that they'll face these same Knicks at MSG, where NY is 10-7, in a few days. They also know that they're 3-15 on the road (compared to 6-9 at home) and that they won't have the schedule in their favor for that 3/4 game. That makes taking care of business this evening imperative. Note that the Knicks are 0-3 ATS in 2021, when playing on the road, after playing the previous day. Losses were at Chicago, Sacramento and Charlotte. Schedule and venue in their favor, look for the Pistons to move to 7-0 ATS against Atlantic Division teams. |
|||||||
02-28-21 | Nevada v. Utah State -8 | Top | 66-87 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
I'm playing on UTAH STATE. These teams met a couple of days ago. The Aggies jumped out to a big lead but took their foot off the gas late and allowed Nevada to sneak in for the late cover. I expect them to have learned their lesson and look for them to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way in this one. While they were off b2b losses entering last game, the Aggies now have their momentum back. They're 9-2 SU/ATS off a conf. win. They're also still a healthy 11-5 ATS as favorites. Nevada did a good job Friday considering it had a long layoff before that game. That layoff figures to catch up with them in this one though. I say the Aggies complete the sweep in "blowout fashion." |
|||||||
02-27-21 | Jazz v. Magic +10.5 | Top | 124-109 | Loss | -108 | 23 h 27 m | Show |
I'm playing on ORLANDO. This one sets up nicely for the home underdog. The Jazz are off a rare loss last night. While they were battling, the Magic were resting, waiting for them. In addition to playing the second of b2b games, the Jazz will be playing their third game in four nights. Having just facing the defending Eastern Conf. champs last night, after having faced the defending NBA champs in their previous game, its going to be hard for the Jazz to "get up" for the lowly Magic. Mitchell and Gobert had 36 and 37 hard minutes last night while Conley and O'Neal chipped in roughly 33 each. It wouldn't be a shock to see someone get the night off, though I'm certainly not going to count on that. Either way, I look for the minutes to cactch up with them and won't be surprised when the Magic are in this the entire way. |
|||||||
02-27-21 | Tennessee State +14.5 v. Eastern Kentucky | Top | 84-89 | Win | 100 | 23 h 31 m | Show |
I'm playing on TENNESSEE STATE. With all due respect to Eastern Kentucky, I believe that this line will prove to be too high. The Tigers, admittedly, have underachieved this season. They're usually competitive though, the majority of their losses coming by "two touchdowns" or less. One of their losses which came by more than that was at home against these same Colonels. I expect that blowout loss to provide some added motivation for the Tigers here. Having just snapped Belmont's 21-game winning (30-game OVC) streak last game, I won't be shocked if and when the Colonels have a bit of a letdown against the lowly Tigers. Grab the generous points and look for this one to be a lot closer than many will be expecting. |
|||||||
02-27-21 | Oregon State v. Stanford -7 | Top | 73-62 | Loss | -109 | 22 h 57 m | Show |
I'm playing on STANFORD. The Cardinal won by 10 when these teams met at OSU, in January. I expect another double-digit win today. This is one of Stanford's best roles. The Cardinal are a perfect 4-0 ATS the past 2+ seasons, when listed as a home favorite in the -6.5 to -9 range. They haven't forgotten that the Beavers swept them last season and they'll be happy to return the favor this year. The last time that the Cardinal were off b2b losses, they responded by blowing out Cal, winning by 15. The previous time that they were off b2b losses, they responded with an outright win (and cover) against UCLA. Expect them to bounce back big once again. |
|||||||
02-26-21 | Nevada v. Utah State -7.5 | Top | 72-75 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
I'm playing on UTAH STATE. Nevada is in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Off back-to-back losses, the Aggies are going to be in an angry mood. The last time that they were off b2b losses, the Aggies reeled off consecutive SU/ATS victories, winning by nine and 16 points. Even off the b2b losses, the Aggies are still 11-4 SU/ATS in conference play. They've outscored conf. opponents by an average score of 76.1 to 60.3. Its important to note that the Aggies were off a long Covid layoff prior to the two losses. The shoe is on the other foot this time though. This time, Utah State is hosting a team which has had a long layoff. Nevada hasn't played since 2/7. Nevada has played just two road games the past six weeks and went 0-2 SU/ATS in those games. Lay the points. |
|||||||
02-26-21 | Hawks v. Thunder +4.5 | Top | 109-118 | Win | 100 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
I'm playing on OKC. The Hawks are a good young team, capable of beating the likes of Boston, as they did last time out. That was at home though and they're only 6-9 on the road. They're also just 1-4 SU/ATS when off an 'upset' victory. Off the big win over Boston and with a pair of games against Miami on deck, I won't be surprised if they get surprised tonight. The Thunder play hard nearly every night and are off a victory over the Spurs. They've allowed 108 or fewer points in four straight games. The Thunder are 7-5 ATS in non-conf. games this season and 14-9 ATS their last 23 against Southeast teams. Grab the points. |
|||||||
02-25-21 | Oregon State v. California +1.5 | Top | 59-57 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
I'm playing on CAL. Both these teams will be viewing this game as a chance at a rare conference victory. Playing at home and looking to avenge an earlier road loss, I expect the Bears to be the team which rises to the occasion and gets it. Note that the Bears are 6-3 ATS their last nine in the revenge role. Cal is also 5-2 ATS the past seven times it was a home underdog of three or less, all five wins came outright. During that span, the Beavers were 0-2 ATS (and SU) as road favorites of three or less. The Bears have outscored visiting teams by a 68.4 to 67 margin here. Not great but much better than being outscored by an average of 68.3 to 61, which is the case for the Beavers, when on the road. The Bears eked out a close one the last time these teams met here and they've won 18 of the past 21 as the home team in this series. Payback time. |
|||||||
02-25-21 | Wizards v. Nuggets -6.5 | Top | 112-110 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 43 m | Show |
I'm playing on DENVER. I really like how this one sets up for the home team. The Wizards are at the end of a Western Conf. road trip. They're already looking forward to getting home. The Nuggets, on the other hand, take to the road after this game. They're going to be anxious to to pick up a victory before they go. Additional motivation stems from the fact that the Wizards upset them, at Washington, earlier. The Nuggets are 53-33 SU and 47-37-2 ATS the past 2+ seasons, in the revenge role. In terms of line value, consider that Denver was favored by eight points, at Washington, just over a week ago. The Nuggets also lost at Washington last season. However, the game here at Denver saw them win by 13. I say the Nuggets pull away for another double-digit win on Thursday. |
|||||||
02-24-21 | Florida State v. Miami-FL +12 | Top | 88-71 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 25 m | Show |
I'm playing on MIAMI. It would be easy to make a case for the Seminoles. They've been playing very well and are off a road win. They also blew out the Hurricanes in this season's earlier meeting. Meanwhile, Miami is off a blowout loss. While all that may seem to point to the Noles, its actually working in Miami's favor. For starters, we're now working with a very generous line. Consider that the earlier meeting, at FSU, had a line of -11.5. Last year's game here at Miami had a line of -6. Speaking of last year, the Canes also got blown out on the road but the game here was close the entire way, decided by only four points. The Canes are 8-5 ATS their last 13, when off three or more consec. losses. They're also 8-5 ATS as underdogs and 2-0 ATS when attempting to avenge a blowout loss of 20 or more points. Meanwhile, the Noles are just 3-10 ATS against sub-500 teams, the past 2+ seasons. With FSU potentially looking ahead to UNC, grab the points with the revenge-minded visitors. |
|||||||
02-24-21 | Warriors v. Pacers -1.5 | Top | 111-107 | Loss | -111 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
I'm playing on INDIANA. I like how this one sets up for the home team. The Pacers have had some unexpected time off. One game got ppd due to weather. Another got ppg due to Covid-testing. It wasn't an issue on the Pacers' end though. So, they've been able to keep practicing, while also getting some much needed rest. The ability to hold several days of practice just doesnt happen during this short, compacted season. I expect them to make the most of their unique break and look for them to be refreshed for tonight's game. On the other hand, the Warriors are off a win at MSG last night. Curry led the way with another great game. However, keep in mind that he'd missed his previous game, feeling disoriented. Two games in two days could catch up with them. Either way, I like how the Pacers match up against this team. They handled them at Golden State and I look for another win and cover for the Pacers tonight. |
|||||||
02-23-21 | Pistons v. Magic OVER 206.5 | Top | 105-93 | Loss | -112 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
I'm playing on Det/Orlando OVER the total. These teams met a couple of days ago, the game falling below the number. Thanks to that result, we're now working with a lower O/U line, by far the lowest on the Tuesday board. I believe that it'll prove to be too low. A look at Sunday's game reveals that the scoring completely dried up in the final few minutes of that game. Prior to that, it was on pace to land right on or above the total. That's unlikely to be the case again, as this one should be competitive right until the final buzzer. With the Pistons now onto the fourth leg of a 5-game road trip, note that the OVER is 16-6 the past 2+ seasons, when they'd played their previous three on the road. The last time that they were on a road trip, the Pistons first three games were relatively low-scoring (all 222 or less) but by the time they hit Game 4, the score exploded to 264. Look for this one to also prove higher-scoring than many will be expected. |
|||||||
02-23-21 | Massachusetts v. Richmond -8 | Top | 65-79 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
I'm playing on RICHMOND. Not only are the Spiders the stronger team and playing at home, they've also got a scheduling advantage. While Richmond has been playing recently, the Minutemen have not. UMass has only played three times since 1/18 and hasn't played a game since 2/6. Thats a long layoff and will likely lead to some rust. It should be noted that the Minutemen may be missing some players, too. These teams last met a year ago, in late February of 2020. Richmond won 95-71, covering by double-digits. Schedule in their favor, look for the Spiders to pull away for another double-digit win. |
|||||||
02-22-21 | Wizards v. Lakers -7 | Top | 127-124 | Loss | -104 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
I'm playing on the LA LAKERS. With the Wizards on a bit of a roll and the Lakers short-handed, we're getting a far lower line than we normally would. I believe it'll prove to be too low. The Wizards still have issues and the Lakers still have Lebron. Speaking of Lebron, he's going to be highly motivated to show that he can still get it done, sans Davis. The last time that the Lakers dropped two in a row, they responded by beating Boston, on the road. The last time that they faced the Wizards, they won by 22. Lebron had 23 points and 11 assists and took the fourth quarter off. Look for him to lead the way once again, the champs bouncing back with an important win and cover. |
|||||||
02-22-21 | Texas Tech -2 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 69-74 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 15 m | Show |
I'm playing on TEXAS TECH. The Red Raiders have had this one circled. You may recall that the Cowboys upset them, in OT, back on the second day of January. Off back-to-back losses, they're going to be extremely hungry for this one. The last time that the Raiders lost two in a row, they responded with a win and cover on the road, at LSU. Note that Texas Tech is 10-4 SU/ATS the past 14 times it played with one or less day's rest in between games. The Cowboys, who have lost some players since the first meeting, are just 9-14 ATS the past 23 times that they were road underdogs of three or less. Lay the points with the revenge-minded visitors. |
|||||||
02-21-21 | Pistons v. Magic OVER 210 | Top | 96-105 | Loss | -102 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
I'm playing on Det/Orlando OVER the total. These teams haven't met since last February. That last meeting had an O/U line of 209. Yet, it produced 228 points. I look for this one to also prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting. Its true that these aren't the highest scoring teams in the league. However, thats reflected in the relatively low O/U number. Keep in mind that every other total on the Sunday board is considerably higher than this one. Orlando games average 216.9 points this season. Detroit games average 220.8. On the road, the Pistons have seen their games average a much higher 224.6 points. The Magic scored 124 points (124-120 win) last time out. Look for this one to find its way above the low number, the OVER improving to 24-14 the past 2+ seasons, when Orlando was off an 'upset' win. |
|||||||
02-20-21 | Kings -2 v. Bulls | Top | 114-122 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 21 m | Show |
I'm playing on SACRAMENTO. After a dreadful homestand, the Kings will be happy to hit the road. In fact, they've been better on the road overall this season. They're 7-3 ATS (5-5 SU) through 10 games, away from Sacramento. The Bulls, on the other hand, are just 5-8-1 ATS (5-9 SU) at home. While the Kings had last night off, the Bulls are off a hard-fought loss at Philadelphia. The Kings know that this road trip gets a lot tougher after this, as their next two games are at Milwaukee and Brooklyn. Armed with this knowledge, they know that they desperately need to stop the bleeding tonight. They won big here (98-81 with a line of 2) last season. Schedule in their favor, I expect another win and cover this evening. |
|||||||
02-20-21 | Jacksonville State v. Tennessee State +8 | Top | 77-76 | Win | 100 | 22 h 26 m | Show |
I'm playing on TENNESEE STATE. Sometimes, all is takes is one win to get a team going. The Tigers finally snapped their losing streak with a win and cover last time out. I expect that victory to provide a spark and I look for them to carry the positive momentum into Saturday's game. I also believe that they're providing excellent value. Consider that the line was -7 for the earlier meeting and that was AT Jacksonville State. Despite playing on the road, the Tigers gave the Gamecocks all they could handle. Jacksonville State won by a single point. The Tigers won both last season's meetings, too. This is a team they feel very comfortable playing against. The Tennessee State defense does a very good job at forcing opponents to turn the ball ove. In fact, they do so on 23.1 % of all possessions, the 28th-best rate among Div. I teams. Jacksonville State, meanwhile, ranks 303rd in that category, forcing turnovers on just 16.7% of possessions. The Gamecocks are off a loss and they're just 1-3 ATS the past four times that they were favored on the road, in the -6.5 to -9 range. Grab the points but don't be surprised when the Tigers score the outright win. |
|||||||
02-19-21 | Thunder v. Bucks -10.5 | Top | 85-98 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. The Thunder are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. The Bucks are feeling like I am right now. Mad. Angry about losing, enough is enough. The skid ends here. Not only have the Bucks dropped an unheard of five in a row, one of those losses came against these same Thunder. The Bucks are still 16-7-1 ATS (18-6 SU) the past 24 times that they were off a double-digit loss though, 4-2 ATS this season. During that span, they're also 32-17 ATS (37-12 SU) when off an "upset" loss. Playing the second of b2b games may be just what the doctor ordered, too. The last time that the Bucks played their second game in two nights resulted in a 124-99 victory. Speaking of "blowouts," the Bucks also struggled at OKC (won by 2, laying -9) a bit last season. However, when the teams met here, almost exactly one year ago, the Bucks crushed the Thunder by 47 points. Look for them to "get healthy" at OKC's expense tonight. |
|||||||
02-19-21 | Cleveland State v. IUPU Ft Wayne +4 | Top | 68-75 | Win | 100 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
I'm playing on Purdue Fort Wayne. To their credit, the Vikings have played well this season. They still don't score that many points though, as they average only 69.7 ppg. On the road, that number dips to 65.4. Meanwhile, they allow 71.7 on the road. That makes laying points on the road a tough task. Off four straight road games, the Mastadons are going to be very happy to return home. They score a healthy 78.7 ppg here, while allowing 78.4. While the Vikings connect on 41.8% of their field goals, the Mastadons have a 46% field goal percentage. In conference play, the climbs above 47%. After a string of non-covers, the Mastadons broke through with a cover (2 point loss) at Youngstown State last time out. Note that Fort Wayne is 5-1 ATS when facing a team with a winning record. These teams met twice earlier in the season, the Vikings won both but each was decided by single-digits. The first of those, a 2-point Clev. State win, saw the Mastadons favored by -2 points. Now, we're getting a handful of points. I believe thats providing excellent value and while I'm expecting the outright win, I'm happy to grab the points. |
|||||||
02-18-21 | Heat v. Kings UNDER 224 | Top | 118-110 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
I'm playing on Miami/Sacramento UNDER the total. When these teams met on 1/30, the O/U line was 223.5. Yet, they combined for only 209 points. While that was at Miami, the Heat's last visit to Sacramento was even lower-scoring. That game saw only 202 points scored, once again staying below the total by double-digits. The Heat are off an OT game last night. The last time that they played the second of b2b games, the combined score was 214. The Heat played last night without Dragic while the Kings will be without Harrison Barnes tonight. Barnes is averaging 15.8 ppg after averaging 14.5 and 14.3 the previous two seasons for the Kings. His offense will be missed. Look for this one to prove lower-scoring than many will expecting. |
|||||||
02-18-21 | Tennessee Tech v. Tennessee State -2 | Top | 86-91 | Win | 100 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
I'm playing on TENNESSEE STATE. The Tigers haven't been covering. However, a date with the rival Golden Eagles is just what the doctor ordered. The Eagles have dropped 14 straight on the road. They've been outscored in those games by an average of 78.2 to 63.5. While the Eagles are 0-2 ATS the past 2+ seasons as road underdogs of three or less, the Tigers are quietly a perfect 3-0 ATS as home favorites of three or less. Tech won by three, at home, in this season's earlier meeting. However, the Tigers won by 15 in the last game played here, almost exactly a year ago. Expect the revenge-minded Tigers to break through with another victory today, covering the small number along the way. |
|||||||
02-17-21 | South Carolina v. Tennessee -10.5 | Top | 73-93 | Win | 100 | 26 h 41 m | Show |
I'm playing on TENNESSEE. The Gamecocks are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. South Carolina has been hit hard by Covid and has missed a lot of games, as a result. Its started to catch up with the Gamecocks; they've lost three straight and seven of their last nine. Don't expect the Vols to show them any mercy. Off a loss of their own, the Vols are going to be all business. The last time that they were off a loss, the Vols went on the road and beat Kentucky by nine points. Tennessee outscores teams by a 76.7 to 60.8 margin at home. Meanwhile, South Carolina gives up 76.9 ppg on the road. While the on the road, the Gamecocks allow their hosts to hit 46.5% of their field goals. The Vols, on the other hand, hold visitng teams to a 39.4 field goal percentage. Expect that vastly superior defense to prove the difference as the Vols pull away for a double-digit victory. |
|||||||
02-17-21 | Rockets v. 76ers -11.5 | Top | 113-118 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. Embid was a late scratch on Monday. That surely didn't help the 76ers' cause at Utah. As of this writing, it appears promising (currently probable) that Embid will be back for tonight's game. However, with or without him, the 76ers have more than enough to take care of Houston. Indeed, a home game vs. the Rockets is much different than a road game against the Jazz. The Rockets have dropped six straight games. They're getting outscored by a 120.4 to 101.4 average score over their last five games, four of those five resulting in double-digit losses. The 76ers have the best home record in the East and are tied for the fewest home losses in the league. Expect a highly motivated effort and for them to win this one in blowout fashion. |
|||||||
02-16-21 | Michigan State v. Purdue OVER 135.5 | Top | 65-75 | Win | 100 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
I'm playing on MSU/Purdue OVER the total. These teams played a low-scoring game against each other earlier, at MSU. That game had an O/U line in the 140s. This evening, we're working with a considerably lower O/U line. Considering that Purdue tends to score considerably more points at home, I believe that's providing us with plenty of value. While the Boilermakers average 74.4 ppg at home, the Spartans allow 76.6 ppg on the road. Purdue has allowed 70 or more points in b2b games while MSU allowed 88 last time out. Overall, the Spartans have been a profitable 'under' team. However, they've only played two games with O/U lines in the 130s and both of those finished above the number. Purdue has played 10 games with O/U lines in the 130s, six of which topped the total. The OVER is 8-3 when Purdue was a favorite. That includes a 2-0 'over' mark when the Boilermakers were favored, at home, in the 3.5 to 6 range. In fact, the OVER is a PERFECT 8-0 the past 2+ seasons when Purdue was a home favorite in the 3.5 to 6 range. Expect those stats to improve to 9-0 here. |
|||||||
02-15-21 | 76ers +7 v. Jazz | Top | 123-134 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 30 m | Show |
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. The Jazz have been on an extended run and continue to play well. However, tonight, they'll be without Conley and taking on a very good Philadelphia team, one which is anxious to close out its trip on a winning note and one which always plays them tough. Note that the 76ers have the best record in the East, the only Eastern Conference team currently winning more than 60% of its games. Also, note that the Jazz are 0-4-1 ATS their last five against teams with a winning percentage above .600. The 76ers beat the Jazz by nine at Phily last season and they lost by only two, here at Utah. Including those results, the 76ers are 6-0 ATS the last six in the series, the 2-point loss and five outright wins. With the 76'ers last three games all decided by single digits, this figures to be another close one. Look for the 76ers to give the Jazz all they can handle with a great shot at another outright win. |
|||||||
02-15-21 | Washington +7.5 v. Washington State | Top | 65-63 | Win | 100 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
I'm playing on WASHINGTON. Two of the past four meetings between these rivals have been decided by four points or less. I beleve these teams are very evenly matched and I'm expecting another close one this evening. The Huskies haven't won for awhile. However, they lost by only three against UCLA last time out and a date with the Cougars provides reason for hope. Indeed, this is a team they have a real chance of beating. WSU, which lost by nine on Saturday, is just 1-4-1 ATS (1-5 SU) the past six times it played with one or less day's rest in between games. The Huskies come in absolutely hungry for a conference victory and looking to avenge an earlier loss at Washington. Grab the points and look for them to improve to 10-6 ATS the past 16 times that they attempted to avenge a home loss. |
|||||||
02-14-21 | Blazers v. Mavs -4.5 | Top | 121-118 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 10 m | Show |
I'm playing on DALLAS. I like what I've seen from the Mavs recently. They've won four straight and are getting stronger. Over their last five games, they're averaging a whopping 127.6 points. After eking out wins over Golden State and Minnesota, they rallied from a big deficit to beat Atlanta two games ago. Then, last time out, they pounded the Pelicans, putting up 143 points in the process. Doncic and Porzingis were unstoppable. The Blazers have also been playing well, as they're off three straight wins. Those were all at home though. Their last road game resulted in a double-digit loss at MSG. Though the Blazers beat them in the bubble last summer, the Mavs won by eight when the teams played here at Dallas. Expect another win and cover this evening, the Mavs improving to 5-2 ATS when off a double-digit win. |
|||||||
02-14-21 | Oregon State v. Arizona State -5.5 | Top | 73-75 | Loss | -115 | 28 h 23 m | Show |
I'm playing on ARIZONA STATE. The Beavers are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Not only are the Sun Devils angry after getting beaten up by Oregon, they also haven't forgotten the earlier 1-point loss at Oregon State. That result notwithstanding, the Sun Devils are the more talented team in this matchup. Playing at home and highly motivated to bounce back with a victory, I expect them to demonstrate it on Sunday evening. Prior to the 1/16 game, the Sun Devils had beaten the Beavers four straight times. Five of the Beavers' last six losses have been by a minimum of nine points. Payback time. |
|||||||
02-13-21 | Valparaiso v. Northern Iowa -6.5 | Top | 70-57 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
I'm playing on NORTHERN IOWA. I'm projecting a double-digit win for the Panthers in this one. Both teams lost big last time out but Northern Iowa is much better equipped to bounce back. The Panthers have won six of the past seven meetings. Each of the past three resulted in double-digit wins for the Panthers. Te Crusaders are averaging only 61.8 ppg on the road and they may not even get that many today. Last game, they scored 52, while giving up 76. That was at home. Their last two road games have seen them score 51 and 52 points, respectively. The Crusaders also managed just 51 points the last time that these teams met. The fact that Northern Iowa has struggled at the betting window has helped keep this line reasonable. That changes today, the Panthers keeping the pedal to the metal and pulling away for a double-digit win. |
|||||||
02-12-21 | Pelicans v. Mavs -2 | Top | 130-143 | Win | 100 | 25 h 56 m | Show |
I'm playing on DALLAS. The Mavs have started to win, they just haven't been covering. Tonight, however, a SU win should also result in an ATS win. I expect that to be the case. I really liked what I saw from the Mavs last game. They were down big to Atlanta but rallied to win the game by a point. While that wasn't enough for the cover, it was enough to build positive momentum for this game. I successfully played against the Pelicans in their last game, a double-digit loss at Chicago, and noted that they haven't been playing well on the road. The Mavs have dominated the Pelicans franchise here for years and they did so again last season. Expect homecourt to prove significant as the Mavs win their fourth straight. |
|||||||
02-12-21 | Manhattan +6 v. Iona | Top | 67-85 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 24 m | Show |
I'm playing on MANHATTAN. I love the setup here. The Gaels haven't played since way back on Dec. 23rd. That's a 51-day layoff, the longest in school history. Rick Pitino acknowledged the following: "We're out of shape right now. Mentally and physically, we're not a basketball team, but still make the best of where we're at." Keep in mind that 17 players and staff test positive for Covid. Note that the Gaels are 1-6 SU/ATS the past seven times that they played with seven or more day's rest in between games. Unlike Iona, Manhattan has been playing regularly. Four of the Jaspers last five games have been decided by five or less. Grab the points. |
|||||||
02-11-21 | Morehead State v. Tennessee State +8.5 | Top | 79-66 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
I'm playing on TENNESSEE STATE. The Tigers have really struggled at the betting window. That's led to them getting a generous amount of points for this evening's game vs. Morehead State. I feel that they're catching the Eagles at the right time. The Eagles are off an emotional 1-point win and they've got Belmont on deck. If there's ever a game to "look ahead" to, that's the one. While Morehead State has won 11 straight games and sits in second place, Belmont is a perfect 14-0 and atop the conference. That will be the biggest game of the season, to date, for the Eagles. I absolutely feel that they could already have that game in the back of their minds. That'll prove costly though as the Tigers have played them tough recently. In fact, Tennessee State has won three of the past four meetings outright, the lone loss coming by three points. Each of the past two meetings here came down to the wire, as they were decided by just four combined points. Look for this one to also prove much closer than many will be expecting. |
|||||||
02-10-21 | Pelicans v. Bulls +3 | Top | 116-129 | Win | 100 | 14 h 20 m | Show |
I'm playing on CHICAGO. The Bulls have both the schedule and the venue in their favor. I believe that they're providing us with excellent value as home underdogs. While the Bulls had last night off, the Pelicans are off a big win against Houston. While that game wasn't entirely taxing for the starters, due to its blowout nature, it was still a revenge win against a divisional opponent. Houston had hammered them at New Orleans, just over a week earlier. Thats the type of win that could have them ripe for a letdown, when facing a non-conf. team like Chicago, particularly with another divisional opponent (Dallas) on deck. The Pelicans are 1-3 their last four road games and that lone victory came by a single point. Even off last night's win, they're still just 4-7 ATS as favorites. The Bulls, meanwhile, are 11-5 ATS as underdogs. The Bulls are also 3-1 SU/ATS when off an upset loss. Last night, the Pelicans caught Houston playing its second game in two days. Shoe on the other foot, look for the Bulls to score the upset. |
|||||||
02-10-21 | LSU +2.5 v. Mississippi State | Top | 94-80 | Win | 100 | 26 h 54 m | Show |
I'm playing on LSU. Off b2b losses, the Tigers are going to be highly motivated to get back on track here. The last time that they had lost two in a row, they went on the road and hammered Texas A&M. Including a 92-88 victory in their last visit here, the Tigers are 9-4 ATS their last 13, when listed as a road underdog of three or fewer points. While the Bulldogs average 70.8 ppg, the Tigers average 81.5 ppg. LSU Coach Wade knows how important this game is. He had this to say: "All of them will be critical down the stretch here. We certainly have to win some games; we haven't won some games lately. You always say 'must-win, must-win, must-win,' but we just have to pick up as many wins as we can down the stretch. This is the next one, so this one's obviously critically important. But we've got to pick up some wins, win some games." Expect Wade's team to benefit from Saturday's open date as they come ready to play and score the minor upset. |
|||||||
02-09-21 | Warriors v. Spurs OVER 229.5 | Top | 114-91 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
I'm playing on SA/GS OVER the total. These teams met yesterday. The O/U line was higher than this but they played a low-scoring game. That result has already helped in giving us a lower O/U number to work with. With both teams playing their second game in two days, I believe that it'll prove to be too low. The last time that San Antonio played the second of b2b games, it combined with Memphis for 241 points, a game with an O/U line of 219. Including that result, the Spurs have seen the OVER go 17-8 the past 25 times that they played the second of b2b games. During that span, the Warriors have seen the OVER go 15-8 when playing the second of b2b games, 2-1 in 2021. Expect those stats to improve as this one turns into a shootout. |
|||||||
02-09-21 | Arkansas v. Kentucky +1 | Top | 81-80 | Push | 0 | 25 h 52 m | Show |
I'm playing on KENTUCKY. Wrong place, wrong time for the Razorbacks. It was already going to be difficult enough for Arkansas but the Razorbacks are dealing with some injury issues. Desi Sills, who has played in all 85 games since the start of the 2018/19 season is questionable. Even if he does go, in order to keep the consec. games streak in tact, he's likely going to be less than 100%. Others are in the same boat, too. Regardless of which of the questionable players suit up for Arkansas, they'll be facing a hostile and highly motivated Kentucky team. The Wildcats are off three straight losses. The last time that they were in this spot, off three straight SU setbacks, they hammered LSU by double-digits. They're 8-1 SU and 7-1-1 ATS the past nine times that they'd failed to cover three in a row, too. The Wildcats have dominated the Razorbacks here over the years. Expect them to bounce back with a much-needed victory. |
|||||||
02-08-21 | Oklahoma State v. Kansas -4.5 | Top | 66-78 | Win | 100 | 28 h 32 m | Show |
I'm playing on KANSAS. The fact that these teams appear to be headed in opposite directions has kept the line much lower than it could have otherwise been. In my opinion, the Cowboys are in the wrong place at the wrong time. Off a loss at WVU and looking for payback from last month's loss at OK State, the Jayhawks are going to be in an ugly mood. Kansas is a perfect 8-0 SU the past eight times that it attempted to avenge an earlier road loss. During that span, the Jayhawks are also a perfect 10-0 SU and 7-3 ATS, after having allowed 80 or more points in their previous game. Going back further finds that has been a lucrative situation (65-34 ATS L99!) for them for years. The Jayhawks have indeed struggled on the road. However, they remain very hard to beat at home. Visiting teams are averaging only 60.8 ppg here, while connecting on just 38.3% of their field goals. Its true that the the Cowboys have been playing really well. That said, they're off an emotionally and physically exhausting double-OT win 48 hours ago, which figures to take a toll here. Note that the Cowboys are just 1-4 ATS the past five times that they were listed as road underdogs in the 3.5 go 6 range. Kansas won 83-58 when these teams played here a year ago. While much has changed since that time, I'm expecting this year's result to remain the same, a win and cover for Kansas. |
|||||||
02-08-21 | Raptors v. Grizzlies UNDER 225 | Top | 128-113 | Loss | -112 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
I'm playing on Toronto/Memphis UNDER the total. Neither team was happy with its defense last time out. That has helped lead to a generously high O/U number and should also ensure we get maximum intensity on the defensive side of the ball. The Grizzlies find themselves as home underdogs for this one. Thats a situation which has seen the UNDER go a perfect 7-0 the last seven times, against the closing line, dating back to last January. (*Note that Memphis closed as a -1 favorite, at several shops, for its 1/8 game against Brooklyn. So, that game is not being included in these results.) In three times being home underdogs this season, the combined scores have been 212, 186 and 202. While the Grizzlies gave up 118 at New Orleans last time out, the UNDER is 4-0-1 when they'd allowed 115 or more points in their previous game. Going back further finds the UNDER at 37-16-1 their last 54 in that situation. Meanwhile, Toronto has seen the UNDER go 12-7-3 its last 22, after allowing 130 or more points. Last season's lone meeting between these teams had an O/U line of 221.5 but produced just 207 points. With the UNDER at 11-1 the last 12 times that Memphis hosted a team with a losing road record, look for another relatively low-scoring affair. |
|||||||
02-07-21 | Quinnipiac v. Fairfield +2.5 | Top | 78-63 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 26 m | Show |
I'm playing on FAIRFIELD. I believe that the wrong team is favored in this one. While it was awhile ago now, the Stags got on track with a win in their last game. Playing at home, I expect them to carry the positive momentum into this afternoon's game. Note that they're 3-1 ATS the past couple of seasons, when playing with seven or more day's rest in between games. The Bobcats, who have also been off for some time, are 0-4 when playing away from home this season, 0-2 on the road and 0-2 at neutral sites. The Stags are 4-2 ATS the past six times that they were home underdogs of three or fewer points. While Qunnipiac has had their number in recent seasons, I say things change on Sunday afternoon. Grab the points but expect the Stags to score the minor upset. |
|||||||
02-07-21 | Drexel v. Hofstra -3 | Top | 74-79 | Win | 100 | 5 h 7 m | Show |
I'm playing on HOFSTRA. These teams met yesterday. Drexel jumped off to a big early lead and Hofstra was unable to climb all the way back. Hofstra showed plenty of "pride" in battling back though, eventually losing by only two. I expect the Pride to build off their strong 44-32 second half and look for them to get off to a much better start in this one. Prior to yesterday, Hofstra had dominated Drexel in recent meetings. In yesterday's game, the Dragons shot 61.9% (62.5% of 3's) from the field, to Hofstra's 37.5%. Yet, Hofstra still managed to almost pull off the victory. Those percentages won't be like that again today. Revenge-minded Hofstra cools down the Drexel shooters and gets some immediate payback. |
|||||||
02-06-21 | Warriors v. Mavs -4 | Top | 132-134 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 12 m | Show |
I'm playing on DALLAS. These teams met on Thursday. The Warriors were pretty short-handed and played with a small lineup. That didn't stop them from embarrassing the Mavericks by a score of 147-116. That wasn't just a regular loss, coach Carlisle calling it a "difficult lesson." Desperate to avoid seeing their season slip away and also highly motivated to avenge that blowout, I absolutely expect to see the best of the Mavs on Saturday night. Note that Dallas has dominated the Warriors in recent seasons, Thursday notwithstanding. The previous four games saw the Mavs win by scores of 124-97, 141-121, 142-94 and 126-91. Oubre scored a career high (40) in points on Thursday and that won't happen again. Doncic will be on a mission from the opening tip. While things might seem bleak for the Mavs at the moment, they've got a stretch of winnable games ahead. I expect them to start by taking care of business in this one, covering the small number along the way. |
|||||||
02-05-21 | Bulls v. Magic OVER 222 | Top | 119-123 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
I'm playing on Chicago/Orlando OVER the total. The Magic haven't played much defense lately. Over their past four games, they've allowed 123, 115, 116 and 121 points. They've now allowed 107 points or more in seven straight games. While Orlando games had previously been low-scoring at times, the same cannot be said of Chicago road games. Not only do the Bulls allow more points on the road than they do at home, they also score more. Chicago scores an average of 118.6 ppg on the road, while allowing 118.4. That's 237 combined points. The Magic have seen six of 10 games against sub-500 teams finish above the number. The only previous time that they played with exactly two day's rest in between games, the scheduling situation they're in tonight, they combined for 250 points. Look for this one to prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting, the OVER improving to 12-7 when the Bulls played a game with an O/U line of 220 or more. |
|||||||
02-05-21 | Marshall v. Old Dominion +5.5 | Top | 81-82 | Win | 100 | 12 h 0 m | Show |
I'm playing on ODU. This line went up overnight and I believe thats providing us with excellent value. Note that each of the last six meetings between these teams was decided by single digits and that four of those games were decided by five or fewer points. In fact, in the six games, Marshall only outscored ODU by two total points, 431-429. Indeed, these games are usually close which makes getting those extra points all that more significant. The Monarchs were dealt a blow early when star Jason Wade was ruled out for the season. They've had a few months to adapt though and still have quite a deep and experienced team.Both teams have been off for a long time. Marshall is already 0-2 ATS when playing with seven or more day's rest in between games this season. True, the Herd have been pretty good on the road. The Monarchs are undefeated at home though and they're 5-1 ATS their last six home games against teams which win more than 60% of their games on the road. Expect another close one and grab the points. |
|||||||
02-04-21 | Rockets v. Grizzlies OVER 223.5 | Top | 115-103 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
I'm playing on Houston/Memphis OVER the total. While the Rockets may have struggled to score last night, this number is too low. Gone are the days when Memphis was a defensive team. The Grizzlies have hit triple digits in eight straight games. Their last three games have seen them score 129, 133 and 116. Prior to laying an egg last night, the Rockets had scored 136 and 126 in their previous two games. Note that the last time that the Rockets played the second of b2b games, they scored 133, after having managed only 103 in the front end of the two games. The last meeting betweeen these teams produced 252 points. Even after last night, the OVER is still 6-2 when the Rockets played a road game with an O/U line of 220 or more. Expect a high-scoring affair. |
|||||||
02-04-21 | Murray State v. Morehead State OVER 129 | Top | 56-66 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
I'm playing on Murray State/Morehead State OVER the total. While I respect these defenses, I believe that this number will prove to be too low. Note that Murray State, the past couple of seasons, has seen the OVER go a perfect 3-0 when the O/U line was in the 120s. When these teams met earlier in the season, the O/U line was 132. The final score of that 1/2 game was just 65-51. However, that was when both teams were playing a string of low-scoring games. Its been more than a month since that meeting and both offenses are currently in a much better groove. Murray State has scored more than 70 points in six straight games. Likewise, Morehead State has scored 74 or more in four straight games. Needless to say, if they both hit even 70 in this one, the game finishes comfortably above the number. While both teams have been profitable 'under' teams overall (the reason for the low number) the OVER is still 4-1 the past five times that the Racers faced a team with a winning SU record. Expect those stats to improve this evening. |
|||||||
02-03-21 | Georgetown v. Creighton -14 | Top | 86-79 | Loss | -108 | 27 h 0 m | Show |
I'm playing on CREIGHTON. The favorite is 5-2 ATS the past seven times that these teams faced each other. I expect those stats to improve after Wednesday night. The Hoyas managed a 1-point home win last time out. However, they'd lost their previous four games and they're 0-4 ATS the past four times that they were off a SU win, 3-11-1 ATS their last 15 off a conference win. The Hoyas are also 1-6 ATS their last seven on the road. While the poiintspread might seem a little high, I believe that it could easily be higher. Its stayed "reasonable" thanks partly due to the Bluejays not covering much recently. Note that Creighton was laying -13.5 for the last meeting (won by 15) and the gap between the teams is bigger this season. Keep in mind that Creighton returned four starters from last year while Georgetown returned one. Including last season's win, the Bluejays are 3-1 ATS the past four times that they were favored in the -12.5 to -15 range. I say this one gets ugly. |
|||||||
02-03-21 | Knicks v. Bulls OVER 216 | Top | 107-103 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
I'm playing on NY/Chicago OVER the total. These teams faced each other a couple of days ago. Chicago won 110-102, the final score staying below the total. That was a case where the Knicks were playing their second game in two days though, which is not the case for either team here. That's significant as the Knicks have had real trouble scoring when playing the second of b2b games. Prior to scoring 102 against the Bulls, when playing the second of b2b games in 2021, the Knicks had managed 94, 91 and 88 points. So, the fact that they managed 'only' 102 on Monday wasn't that surprising. They had yesterday off though and I expect them to bounce back with a better offensive effort. They're going to need to, as the Bulls have now scored 110 or more points in 10 of their last 11 games. They scored at least 115 in nine of those. Look for this one to prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting, the OVER improving to 13-5 when the OVER the past 18 times that the Bulls played their previous three or more games at home. |
|||||||
02-02-21 | Penn State v. Wisconsin -7 | Top | 56-72 | Win | 100 | 13 h 25 m | Show |
I'm playing on WISCONSIN. The Nittany Lions are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. These teams just played, at Penn State, on 1/30. The Nittany Lions protected their homecourt with a 81-71 victory. Tonight, however, its the Badgers who are playing at home. They've got a chance for some immediate payback and I fully expect them to make the most of it. The Badgers are already 3-0 SU/ATS off a loss in Big Ten play this season. After losing to Maryland, they beat Minnesota by double-digits. After losing to Michigan, they went on the road and beat Rutgers. Most recently. after a loss to Ohio State, they went on the road and defeated Maryland, avenging the earlier loss to the Terps. With an O/U line in the high 130s, note that Wisconsin is a dominant 35-4 SU and 26-12-1 ATS when playing a home game with an O/U line in the 135 to 139.5 range. Expect a blowout. |
|||||||
02-02-21 | Grizzlies v. Pacers -5.5 | Top | 116-134 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
I'm playing on INDIANA. The Pacers suffered a 4th quarter collapse against the 76ers last time out. I lost with them in that game and obviously wasn't happy about it. However, with the schedule and venue in their favor, I'm more than willing to give them another chance tonight. While Indiana had last night off, the Grizzlies are off a road win at San Antonio. In addition to playing the second of b2b games, this will also be their third game in the past four days. That had been preceded by an extended layoff, so the sudden three games in four days may prove a bit of a shock to the system. Either way, I expect the Grizzlies to have their hands full against an angry Indiana team. The Pacers swept the season series last year. The most recent resulted in a double-digit win with all five starters scoring at least 14 points. Brogdon had 19 while Sabonis had an 18/14/8 stat-line before fouling out. Off the painful loss to the 76ers and knowing they've got a tough game on deck tomorrow, the Pacers won't squander this opportunity. |
|||||||
02-01-21 | Kings v. Pelicans -3.5 | Top | 118-109 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 57 m | Show |
I'm playing on NEW ORLEANS. I really like how this one sets up for the Pelicans. The Kings have have already a successful road trip. However, they lost their last game by a single point and this is the final game of the trip. I think they could easily get caught thinking about what might have been and/or about the return trip home. The Pelicans lost last time out, after having won their previous two. Having struggled in January, they know they absolutely need to take advantage of the fact the Kings are at the end of a trip. Note that NO is 2-0 SU/ATS its last two home games against the Kings, 6-2 SU/ATS its past eight. The Pelicans are 20-13 ATS their last 33, off an upset loss. With the Kings just 9-15 ATS (5-19 SU) their last 24 road games, when the O/U line was 230 or more, look for the Pelicans to deliver the win and cover. |
|||||||
01-31-21 | Illinois State +18 v. Drake | Top | 76-78 | Win | 100 | 2 h 37 m | Show |
I'm playing on ILLINOIS STATE. Analysis to follow |
|||||||
01-30-21 | Stanford v. Arizona State -1.5 | Top | 75-79 | Win | 100 | 13 h 18 m | Show |
I'm playing on ASU. Its been tough sledding at the betting window for the Sun Devils. Tonight, however, thanks to all those previous ATS losses, the number is so small that a SU victory should also result in a cover. That's what I'm expecting. The Sun Devils won the past two meetings with Stanford by scores of 74-69, at Stanford and 80-62 here at ASU. They catch the Cardinal dealing with several injuries. That includes the likes of Ziaire Williams, Daejon Davis and Bryce Willis, all key players. Those losses will hurt them here. While Stanford is 12-18 its past 30 on the road, ASU is 28-12 its past 40 at home. Expect the Sun Devils to improve on those stats, covering the small number along the way. |
|||||||
01-29-21 | Texas-Arlington v. Arkansas State +3 | Top | 75-83 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
I'm playing on ARKANSAS STATE. These teams will battle each other on both Friday and Saturday. While the ATS wins haven't been there, this is a better Arkansas State team than last season. The Red Wolves will be anxious to demonstrate that point against the Mavericks, a team which swept them last season. The Red Wolves have one of the better backcourts in the conference and that should give them an edge in this one. While Texas-Arlington is 15-24 SU its last 39 on the road, Arkansas State is 25-12 SU at home, during the same span. The Mavs are 1-4 ATS their last five on the road and they're shooing just 36.6% from the field their last five games overall. The Red Wolves, on the other hand, are hitting 52.5% of their field goals at home, outscoring teams by an average of 87.8 to 64.5 in games here. Grab the points. |
|||||||
01-29-21 | Nets -8.5 v. Thunder | Top | 147-125 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
I'm playing on BROOKLYN. The Thunder generally fight hard. However, they won't outwork their opponent tonight and they're overmatched in the talent department. The Nets are going to be highly motivated; they haven't forgotten that these same Thunder upset them at Brooklyn earlier. (The Thunder also won at Brooklyn in 2020.) The Nets followed that 1/10 loss by winning four in a row. Now, they've also won three in a row. Those have been close wins though and they're going to be itching for a "feel good blowout" against a team that upset them. Note that they're 59-43-1 ATS in the revenge role the past few seasons. I expect them to improve on those stats with a double-digit win. |
|||||||
01-28-21 | California v. Arizona State -7.5 | Top | 68-72 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 34 m | Show |
I'm playing on ASU. Its been a tough stretch at the betting window for backers of the Sun Devils. Tonight, however, should provide an excellent opportunity for a big win. The Sun Devils already won by eight at Berkeley. They beat the Bears by double-digits the last meeting here. In fact, they've beaten them six straight times. The two games here were won by an average of 20.5 points. Overall, ASU is 27-12 SU at home the past 2+ seasons while Cal is 3-26 SU on the road. The Sun Devils have thrived as home favorites of this size the past few seasons, too. They're 3-0 ATS their last three, as home favorites in the -6.5 to -9 range. During the same span, the Bears were a money-burning 1-6 ATS as road underdogs in the 6.5 to 9 range. After losing to Arizona, ASU coach Bobby Hurley had this to say: "I've got to do a better job of getting us ready to play early in the game. I commend our effort in the second half, but the cabinet is filled with moral victories, so I’m not really that enthusiastic." With an opportunity to stop the skid, expect Hurley to have his team ready to go from the opening tip and for them to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way. |
|||||||
01-26-21 | Knicks v. Jazz UNDER 213.5 | Top | 94-108 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
I'm playing on NY/Utah UNDER the total. This O/U line has climbed a bit from its opening number. I believe thats providing us with excellent value. Yes, the Jazz have been involved in some high-scoring games of late. Those three consec. 'overs' came against the Pelicans (twice) and Warriors though. I expect a game against the Knicks to have a much different result. Keep in mind that before the recent 'overs,' the Jazz had seen four straight games finish below the total. They held three of those opponents to 92 points or less. The Knicks come in averaging just 101.9 ppg. Thats the lowest mark in the entire league. (The Cavs are next at 104.5.) Not surprisingly, 12 of their 18 games have fallen below the total. I expect them to have trouble-scoring here, the UNDER improving to 4-0 when the Jazz played with two day's rest in between games. |
|||||||
01-26-21 | Oklahoma v. Texas -4 | Top | 80-79 | Loss | -112 | 26 h 0 m | Show |
I'm playing on TEXAS. The Sooners' recent hot streak has kept this line lower than it easily could have been. I feel thats providing excellent value with the Longhorns. Keep in mind that Oklahoma's wins have been coming at home. The Sooners' last three road games have ALL resulted in loses. They dropped those games at Xavier, Baylor and Kansas by an average of 14 points, two of the three losses coming by double-digits. While some may be concerned about the Longhorns' extended layoff, another potential factor helping to keep the line down, lets not forget the game against Kansas. That was a 1/2 game and the Longhorns hadn't played since 12/20. Rust? Not exactly. They crushed Kansas by a score of 84-59. While these teams have played some close ones, I see the Longhorns pulling away and covering the small number. |
|||||||
01-25-21 | Texas Tech +2.5 v. West Virginia | Top | 87-88 | Win | 100 | 30 h 46 m | Show |
I'm playing on TEXAS TECH. The Mountaineers are a really good team. However, I believe that the Red Raiders are even better. While the Mountaineers did get a game in on the weekend, a blowout of K-State, both teams have missed some games recently, due to Covid. Prior to the off time, WVU had lost two of three. We're getting the Red Raiders as an underdog, due to the fact that they're playing on the road. However, the Raiders have no issue winning on the road. Texas Tech has won its first three road games in Conf. play, only the second time it has done so since 1996/97. While the home team has had the advantage in the series of late, I believe that the Red Raiders' ability to win on the road will prove significant. I'll take the points but am expecting the upset. |
|||||||
01-24-21 | Hawks v. Bucks -7 | Top | 115-129 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. Hawks are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Off b2b losses, the Bucks are in an angry mood. Even with the loss to the Lakers, they're still an outstanding 31-13 ATS when off an 'upset' loss. While the Bucks have been facing top tier teams like the Lakers and Nets, the Hawks have been taking on the likes of the Pistons and T-Wolves. The Bucks come in rested; they've had the past two days off. They also have the next two days off. In other words, the Hawks will have their full attention. The Bucks won all three of last season's games by a minimum of eight points. The most recent meeting saw them hammer the Hawks by 26 points. They were up 63-40 by halftime and cruised the rest of the way. I'm expecting another double-digit win here. |
|||||||
01-23-21 | Lakers v. Bulls OVER 227.5 | Top | 101-90 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 5 m | Show |
I'm playing on LA/Chicago OVER the total. While the Lakers have been a profitable 'under' team in recent weeks, a visit to Chicago should change that. Last season's game here had 230 points. This season's earlier meeting, at LA, finished with 232. The Bulls put up 123 points at Charlotte yesterday. They've scored 115 or more in seven straight games, 110 or more in nine straight. The Bulls also allow 120 points, a whopping 121.2 ppg here at home. Visiting teams connect on 49% of their field goals. This will be the third time that the Bulls played the second of b2b games, since doing so on New Year's Day. Those previous two instances produced 245 and 252 combined points. Look for another high-scoring affair, the OVER improving to 5-0 when the Bulls faced a team from the Pacific. |
|||||||
01-23-21 | Mississippi State +13.5 v. Alabama | Top | 73-81 | Win | 100 | 25 h 33 m | Show |
I'm playing on MISSISSIPPI STATE. Needless to say, Alabama has been enjoying a great season. I certainly respect the Tide, having successfully played on them on more than one occasion. That said, I believe that they're a bit over-valued here and I believe that this will prove to be a much tougher challenge than many will be expecting. Off their win at LSU, their third staight "blowout victory, the Tide may be reading their press clippings and patting themselves on the back a little. With a big game against Kentucky on deck, it's going to be easy to look past the Bulldogs. That'll prove costly though. The Bulldogs have arguably played on the road than at home this season and they're coming in thinking "upset" and "signature win." Yes, the Tide put up a whopping 105 points in the LSU game. The Bulldogs don't think much of that though as they're 5-0 ATS their last five against teams which scored 100 or more points, in their previous game. Look for them to give their hosts all they can handle. |
|||||||
01-22-21 | Knicks v. Kings -3.5 | Top | 94-103 | Win | 100 | 30 h 49 m | Show |
I'm playing on SACRAMENTO.The Kings have both the schedule and the venue working in their favor here. While they had yesterday off, the Knicks are off a late game, at Golden State. Desperate for a victory and knowing that their next six games will come on the road, I expect the Kings to take advantage of the favorable situation tonight. The Kings have won two of three games against Eastern Conf. teams this season, most recently knocking off the Pacers. They're 24-17 SU off a double-digit loss, the past 2+ seasons, going 25-16 ATS. That's a great record, particularly when compared to the rest of their games during that span. Expect the Kings to leave it all on the floor, improving on those stats in convincing fashion. |
|||||||
01-22-21 | Nevada v. Wyoming +4 | Top | 64-71 | Win | 100 | 25 h 38 m | Show |
I'm playing on WYOMING. Nevada has been on a nice ATS run in conference play but I expect it to come to an end here. I like the way that the Cowboys come into this one. They dropped the first of two games against Air Force. After dropping a close one in the first of two games against the Falcons, Wyoming responded with a 77-58 blowout in the second game. Note that Wyoming is 6-3 ATS its last nine, off a conference victory. The Cowboys play Air Force again tomorrow. However, thats not nearly something to "look ahead" to the way that Nevada's Saturday opponent is. The Wolf Pack will play San Diego State Saturday, which is a "double-revenge" spot. The last three meetings between these teams have all been very close, the three games together decided by just nine combined points. While I like Wyoming's chances of winning outright, in a game which could well come down to the wire once again, I'm happy to grab the points. |
|||||||
01-21-21 | Pelicans +7 v. Jazz | Top | 118-129 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 40 m | Show |
I'm playing on NEW ORLEANS. I won with the 'over' when these same teams faced each other on Tuesday. For tonight's rematch, I feel that the value lies with the visitors. Having dropped Tuesday's game, the Pelicans are coming in angry and motivated. While the Jazz got the better of them Tuesday, the previous six meetings between the Jazz and Pelicans had all been decided by 10 points or less, two of the previous three decided by a single bucket. The Pelicans are already 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS when coming off a double-digit loss. Off a double-digit loss against Miami, they bounced back to beat the Spurs. Off a double-digit loss against the Suns, they bounced back to crush the Thunder. Off a double-digit loss to the Lakers, they bounced back for a win and cover at Sacramento. Off Tuesday's double-digit loss, look for them to bounce back with AT LEAST another cover tonight. |
|||||||
01-20-21 | Magic v. Wolves OVER 219 | Top | 97-96 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
I'm playing on Orlando/Minnesota OVER the total. While these teams both saw their MLK Day games finish below the number, I'm expecting a high-scoring affair this evening. These teams met twice in 2020 and those games had combined scores of 250 and 261. Including those results, the T-Wolves have seen the OVER go 38-20 in non-conf. games the past 2+ seasons, 18-4 against Southeast Division opponents. During the same span, the Magic have seen the OVER go 15-7 against teams from the Northwest Division and 36-27-1 in non-conf. action overall. This season, Orlando road games are finishing with an average of 221.6 points while Minnesota home games are averaging 223.3 All things considered, I feel that the line could easily be higher. Expect a shootout, the final combined score finishing above the relatively low number. |
|||||||
01-20-21 | Tulsa v. Houston -12 | Top | 59-86 | Win | 100 | 22 h 39 m | Show |
I'm playing on HOUSTON. To their credit, the Golden Hurricane have played pretty well. Facing a superior and angry opponent, I believe that they run into a reality check tonight though. Last time out, Tulsa eked out a 1-point home win over Memphis. However, in their last road game, the Golden Hurricane got thumped by a score of 72-53. The Cougars haven't forgotten that the Golden Hurricane upset them, at Houston, on 12/29. This is a Houston team which is a perfect 8-0 SU and a profitable 6-2 ATS the past eight times it attempted to avenge a road loss. With an O/U line in the mid-120's, this is projected to be a fairly low-scoring game. That suits the Cougars just fine. They're a perfect 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS the past seven times that they played a home game with an O/U line in the 120s. Going back further finds them at 18-8 SU/ATS in that situation. The Tulsa loss was the Cougars' only defeat. They were up by as many as 11 in that game. They will have learned from that and will be determined to avoid a repeat. Expect them to keep the pedal to the metal the whole way, en route to a blowout victory. |
|||||||
01-19-21 | SE Missouri State v. Tennessee State -5 | Top | 63-59 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 29 m | Show |
I'm playing on TENNESSEE STATE. I believe that the gap between these teams is considerably wider than is indicated by the pointspread. Yes, the Redhawks won the earlier meeting. However, that was at SE Missouri State and the game went to OT. Now, the revenge minded Tigers get a chance for payback on their own homecourt. Note that the Tigers are 5-0 ATS their last five home games against a team with a losing road record. On the other hand, the Redhawks are 0-6 ATS their last six road games against teams with a losing home record. This is makeup game and it catches the Redhawks in between games against Morehead State, a team which beat them Saturday. I believe it all adds up to a win and cover for the revenge-minded Tigers. |
|||||||
01-18-21 | Kansas v. Baylor OVER 139 | Top | 69-77 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
I'm playing on Baylor/Kansas OVER the total. This O/U line came down from its opener. While I respect both defenses, I believe thats providing us with excellent value with the OVER. Keep in mind that Kansas averages more than 76 ppg while Baylor averages more than 87 ppg. True, those numbers were built up in non-conf. play and both teams have scored considerably less in Big 12 play. That said, neither team is going to go away tonight. Kansas lost 75-70 last time out, a game which fell below the number by a half point. (Remember, we're working with a lower number here.) After their only previous Big 12 loss, the Jayhawks responded by going on the road and scoring 93 points (at TCU) in their next game. Alwawys tough off a Big 12 loss, the Jayhawks know they'll need to put up a big number to compete tonight, with Baylor averaging more than 91 ppg at home. Look for this one to prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting. |
Register for an Account Now for Free Picks and More Special Offers!
Ben Burns Basketball Top Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
03-14-21 | Clippers v. Pelicans UNDER 236.5 | Top | 115-135 | Loss | -112 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
03-14-21 | Ohio State v. Illinois UNDER 150.5 | Top | 88-91 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 51 m | Show |
03-14-21 | VCU v. St Bonaventure -1.5 | Top | 65-74 | Win | 100 | 68 h 26 m | Show |
03-13-21 | Pacers +7 v. Suns | Top | 122-111 | Win | 100 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
03-13-21 | Georgetown v. Creighton -7.5 | Top | 73-48 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
03-13-21 | Oklahoma State v. Texas UNDER 145 | Top | 86-91 | Loss | -119 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
03-13-21 | Ohio State +6 v. Michigan | Top | 68-67 | Win | 100 | 19 h 39 m | Show |
03-12-21 | Pacers v. Lakers OVER 216.5 | Top | 100-105 | Loss | -106 | 15 h 26 m | Show |
03-12-21 | Nuggets v. Grizzlies +3.5 | Top | 103-102 | Win | 100 | 28 h 37 m | Show |
03-12-21 | Oklahoma State v. Baylor -9 | Top | 83-74 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
03-12-21 | Maryland v. Michigan OVER 133 | Top | 66-79 | Win | 100 | 4 h 23 m | Show |
03-11-21 | Texas Tech v. Texas UNDER 135.5 | Top | 66-67 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
03-11-21 | Knicks v. Bucks -11 | Top | 101-134 | Win | 100 | 27 h 53 m | Show |
03-11-21 | Oregon State v. UCLA -4.5 | Top | 83-79 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 47 m | Show |
03-10-21 | Wizards v. Grizzlies OVER 238 | Top | 112-127 | Win | 100 | 26 h 12 m | Show |
03-09-21 | Southern Miss +4.5 v. Rice | Top | 52-61 | Loss | -106 | 25 h 30 m | Show |
03-09-21 | Pepperdine +9 v. BYU | Top | 77-82 | Win | 100 | 30 h 13 m | Show |
03-07-21 | Michigan v. Michigan State UNDER 137 | Top | 64-70 | Win | 100 | 22 h 41 m | Show |
03-06-21 | VMI v. Furman -7 | Top | 91-90 | Loss | -108 | 23 h 38 m | Show |
03-06-21 | Vanderbilt v. Ole Miss -8.5 | Top | 46-56 | Win | 100 | 23 h 14 m | Show |
03-05-21 | Troy State v. Texas-Arlington -5.5 | Top | 91-86 | Loss | -112 | 13 h 5 m | Show |
03-04-21 | Bucks -5.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 112-111 | Loss | -111 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
03-04-21 | Vanderbilt v. Cincinnati -6 | Top | 78-64 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
03-03-21 | San Diego State v. UNLV +9.5 | Top | 71-62 | Win | 100 | 15 h 58 m | Show |
03-03-21 | Hornets v. Wolves OVER 232 | Top | 135-102 | Win | 100 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
03-03-21 | Pacers -5.5 v. Cavs | Top | 114-111 | Loss | -102 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
03-03-21 | Oregon State v. Utah -3.5 | Top | 75-70 | Loss | -117 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
03-02-21 | Suns v. Lakers -117 | Top | 114-104 | Loss | -117 | 25 h 30 m | Show |
03-02-21 | Western Michigan v. Northern Illinois | Top | 73-63 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 16 m | Show |
03-01-21 | Oklahoma v. Oklahoma State UNDER 142 | Top | 75-79 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 40 m | Show |
03-01-21 | Mavs v. Magic OVER 226 | Top | 130-124 | Win | 100 | 26 h 23 m | Show |
02-28-21 | Knicks v. Pistons +1 | Top | 109-90 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
02-28-21 | Nevada v. Utah State -8 | Top | 66-87 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
02-27-21 | Jazz v. Magic +10.5 | Top | 124-109 | Loss | -108 | 23 h 27 m | Show |
02-27-21 | Tennessee State +14.5 v. Eastern Kentucky | Top | 84-89 | Win | 100 | 23 h 31 m | Show |
02-27-21 | Oregon State v. Stanford -7 | Top | 73-62 | Loss | -109 | 22 h 57 m | Show |
02-26-21 | Nevada v. Utah State -7.5 | Top | 72-75 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
02-26-21 | Hawks v. Thunder +4.5 | Top | 109-118 | Win | 100 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
02-25-21 | Oregon State v. California +1.5 | Top | 59-57 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
02-25-21 | Wizards v. Nuggets -6.5 | Top | 112-110 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 43 m | Show |
02-24-21 | Florida State v. Miami-FL +12 | Top | 88-71 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 25 m | Show |
02-24-21 | Warriors v. Pacers -1.5 | Top | 111-107 | Loss | -111 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
02-23-21 | Pistons v. Magic OVER 206.5 | Top | 105-93 | Loss | -112 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
02-23-21 | Massachusetts v. Richmond -8 | Top | 65-79 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
02-22-21 | Wizards v. Lakers -7 | Top | 127-124 | Loss | -104 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
02-22-21 | Texas Tech -2 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 69-74 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 15 m | Show |
02-21-21 | Pistons v. Magic OVER 210 | Top | 96-105 | Loss | -102 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
02-20-21 | Kings -2 v. Bulls | Top | 114-122 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 21 m | Show |
02-20-21 | Jacksonville State v. Tennessee State +8 | Top | 77-76 | Win | 100 | 22 h 26 m | Show |
02-19-21 | Thunder v. Bucks -10.5 | Top | 85-98 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
02-19-21 | Cleveland State v. IUPU Ft Wayne +4 | Top | 68-75 | Win | 100 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
02-18-21 | Heat v. Kings UNDER 224 | Top | 118-110 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
02-18-21 | Tennessee Tech v. Tennessee State -2 | Top | 86-91 | Win | 100 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
02-17-21 | South Carolina v. Tennessee -10.5 | Top | 73-93 | Win | 100 | 26 h 41 m | Show |
02-17-21 | Rockets v. 76ers -11.5 | Top | 113-118 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
02-16-21 | Michigan State v. Purdue OVER 135.5 | Top | 65-75 | Win | 100 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
02-15-21 | 76ers +7 v. Jazz | Top | 123-134 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 30 m | Show |
02-15-21 | Washington +7.5 v. Washington State | Top | 65-63 | Win | 100 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
02-14-21 | Blazers v. Mavs -4.5 | Top | 121-118 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 10 m | Show |
02-14-21 | Oregon State v. Arizona State -5.5 | Top | 73-75 | Loss | -115 | 28 h 23 m | Show |
02-13-21 | Valparaiso v. Northern Iowa -6.5 | Top | 70-57 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
02-12-21 | Pelicans v. Mavs -2 | Top | 130-143 | Win | 100 | 25 h 56 m | Show |
02-12-21 | Manhattan +6 v. Iona | Top | 67-85 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 24 m | Show |
02-11-21 | Morehead State v. Tennessee State +8.5 | Top | 79-66 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
02-10-21 | Pelicans v. Bulls +3 | Top | 116-129 | Win | 100 | 14 h 20 m | Show |
02-10-21 | LSU +2.5 v. Mississippi State | Top | 94-80 | Win | 100 | 26 h 54 m | Show |
02-09-21 | Warriors v. Spurs OVER 229.5 | Top | 114-91 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
02-09-21 | Arkansas v. Kentucky +1 | Top | 81-80 | Push | 0 | 25 h 52 m | Show |
02-08-21 | Oklahoma State v. Kansas -4.5 | Top | 66-78 | Win | 100 | 28 h 32 m | Show |
02-08-21 | Raptors v. Grizzlies UNDER 225 | Top | 128-113 | Loss | -112 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
02-07-21 | Quinnipiac v. Fairfield +2.5 | Top | 78-63 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 26 m | Show |
02-07-21 | Drexel v. Hofstra -3 | Top | 74-79 | Win | 100 | 5 h 7 m | Show |
02-06-21 | Warriors v. Mavs -4 | Top | 132-134 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 12 m | Show |
02-05-21 | Bulls v. Magic OVER 222 | Top | 119-123 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
02-05-21 | Marshall v. Old Dominion +5.5 | Top | 81-82 | Win | 100 | 12 h 0 m | Show |
02-04-21 | Rockets v. Grizzlies OVER 223.5 | Top | 115-103 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
02-04-21 | Murray State v. Morehead State OVER 129 | Top | 56-66 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
02-03-21 | Georgetown v. Creighton -14 | Top | 86-79 | Loss | -108 | 27 h 0 m | Show |
02-03-21 | Knicks v. Bulls OVER 216 | Top | 107-103 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
02-02-21 | Penn State v. Wisconsin -7 | Top | 56-72 | Win | 100 | 13 h 25 m | Show |
02-02-21 | Grizzlies v. Pacers -5.5 | Top | 116-134 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
02-01-21 | Kings v. Pelicans -3.5 | Top | 118-109 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 57 m | Show |
01-31-21 | Illinois State +18 v. Drake | Top | 76-78 | Win | 100 | 2 h 37 m | Show |
01-30-21 | Stanford v. Arizona State -1.5 | Top | 75-79 | Win | 100 | 13 h 18 m | Show |
01-29-21 | Texas-Arlington v. Arkansas State +3 | Top | 75-83 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
01-29-21 | Nets -8.5 v. Thunder | Top | 147-125 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
01-28-21 | California v. Arizona State -7.5 | Top | 68-72 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 34 m | Show |
01-26-21 | Knicks v. Jazz UNDER 213.5 | Top | 94-108 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
01-26-21 | Oklahoma v. Texas -4 | Top | 80-79 | Loss | -112 | 26 h 0 m | Show |
01-25-21 | Texas Tech +2.5 v. West Virginia | Top | 87-88 | Win | 100 | 30 h 46 m | Show |
01-24-21 | Hawks v. Bucks -7 | Top | 115-129 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
01-23-21 | Lakers v. Bulls OVER 227.5 | Top | 101-90 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 5 m | Show |
01-23-21 | Mississippi State +13.5 v. Alabama | Top | 73-81 | Win | 100 | 25 h 33 m | Show |
01-22-21 | Knicks v. Kings -3.5 | Top | 94-103 | Win | 100 | 30 h 49 m | Show |
01-22-21 | Nevada v. Wyoming +4 | Top | 64-71 | Win | 100 | 25 h 38 m | Show |
01-21-21 | Pelicans +7 v. Jazz | Top | 118-129 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 40 m | Show |
01-20-21 | Magic v. Wolves OVER 219 | Top | 97-96 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
01-20-21 | Tulsa v. Houston -12 | Top | 59-86 | Win | 100 | 22 h 39 m | Show |
01-19-21 | SE Missouri State v. Tennessee State -5 | Top | 63-59 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 29 m | Show |
01-18-21 | Kansas v. Baylor OVER 139 | Top | 69-77 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |