Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-10-22 | Red Sox +1.5 v. Braves | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston +1.5 runs over Atlanta at 7:20 pm et on Tuesday. The Red Sox have been a train-wreck this season, relatively-speaking, but I look for them to give the Braves all they can handle in Atlanta on Tuesday. Note that the Braves are just 4-10 when coming off a win this season, as is the case here, outscored by 0.7 runs on average in that situation. While the Red Sox are mired in a five-game losing streak at the moment, they've still outscored opponents by 2.3 runs on average when coming off three or more consecutive losses over the last two seasons (14-game sample size). Perhaps Atlanta is the right team to turn it around against, or at least from the right division; the Red Sox are 16-4 in their last 20 games against N.L. East opponents, averaging 5.7 runs per game and outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.6 runs in those matchups. The Braves on the other hand are just 15-20 after scoring 8+ runs in their previous game over the last two seasons, outscored by 0.6 runs on average along the way. We'll grab the insurance run with the Red Sox here, largely due to their bullpen, which has already blown five saves this season. Take Boston +1.5 runs (3*). |
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05-09-22 | Phillies v. Mariners -115 | 9-0 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle over Philadelphia at 9:40 pm et on Monday. Tough spot for the Phillies here as they travel across the continent after splitting a double-header against the division rival Mets yesterday. Meanwhile, the Mariners stay at home following a confidence-building walk-off win over the red hot Rays yesterday - a game that saw highly-touted pitching prospect George Kirby make an exceptional mound debut. Of course it's all for not if the M's can't keep it going on Monday as they had dropped six games in a row and 10 of their last 11 prior to yesterday's victory. Needless to say, I like their chances here. Ranger Suarez takes the ball for Philadelphia. He's not fooling anyone right now, having topped out at four strikeouts in his first five starts this season, issuing 10 walks in only 23 1/3 innings while also getting tagged for three home runs over his last two outings. With Suarez unlikely to work deep into the game given his poor recent command, we should see plenty of a Phillies bullpen that has posted a 5.47 ERA and 1.48 WHIP over its last seven games. Mariners starter Chris Flexen has pitched well this season, recording a 3.10 ERA and 1.14 WHIP but has just one victory in his first four starts. That win came in his most recent home start as he allowed only one earned run over seven innings against the Royals in a 4-1 victory on April 22nd. The Mariners bullpen has posted an ugly 6.00 ERA over its last seven games but its collective 1.13 WHIP over that stretch tells a different story. Look for Seattle's turn-around to continue here. Take Seattle (6*). |
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05-09-22 | Marlins v. Diamondbacks OVER 8.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Monday. 'Unders' have ruled the day for both of these teams lately but I look for a different story to unfold on Monday. Both starting pitchers will be facing their opponent for the second time in less than a week. While that's not generally a problem for the better pitchers in baseball, I don't feel that Elieser Hernandez of Humberto Castellanos fall into that category. Hernandez has had a miserable time locating his pitches in the early part of the season, issuing eight walks and giving up 27 hits in 24 1/3 innings of work. The D'Backs chased him after scoring five earned runs in four innings last week. Castellanos is off to an alright start for Arizona this season but I believe regression will soon be coming. He hasn't allowed a home run in 16 2/3 innings pitched this season after giving up six over his final five starts last season. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 11-1 with the D'Backs coming off three or more consecutive 'under' results over the last two seasons with that spot producing an average total of 12.6 runs. Over that same stretch, the 'over' has gone 37-23 with Arizona coming off a win, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 9.8 runs. Take the over (5*). |
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05-09-22 | Phillies v. Mariners OVER 7.5 | 9-0 | Win | 100 | 13 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and Seattle at 9:40 pm et on Monday. The Mariners offense has run dry lately but off their first victory in a while, I think we'll see a reversal of course here on Monday. Note that the 'over' has gone a perfect 9-0 with Seattle having scored two runs or less in consecutive games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 11.0 runs in that situation. The Phillies meanwhile have seen the 'over' go a long-term 145-106 with an average total of 9.3 runs produced when coming off a loss against a division opponent in which they scored one run or less, which is also the situation here. Expect some offensive fireworks on Monday night in the Pacific Northwest. Take the over (4*). |
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05-09-22 | Rays v. Angels OVER 7.5 | 3-11 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Tampa Bay and Los Angeles at 9:35 pm et on Monday. The Rays were involved in a low-scoring game in Seattle yesterday, eventually falling by a 2-1 score in extra innings. The Angels, meanwhile, staged a late rally to walk it off against the Nationals. Here, I'm anticipating a relatively high-scoring affair. Note that the 'over' has gone a perfect 9-0 with the Rays playing on the road following a game that totalled four runs or less over the last two seasons with that spot producing an average total of 10.4 runs. The Angels have seen the 'over' cash at a 35-22 clip when playing as a home favorite over the same stretch, leading to an average total of 9.8 runs. Better still, the 'over' is 37-23 with Los Angeles facing left-handed starting pitching over the last two seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 9.8 runs. The Halos are off to an incredible start against left-handers this season, averaging 5.5 runs per game with the 'over' going 4-3-1. Take the over (5*). |
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05-09-22 | Royals +1.5 v. Orioles | 1-6 | Loss | -180 | 3 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on Kansas City +1.5 runs over Baltimore at 12:05 pm et on Monday. Interestingly, each of the Orioles last four wins have come by at least two runs. I don't believe that's a sustainable trend, especially here at home where runs have come at a premium due to the new field dimensions at Camden Yards. Here, we'll note that the Royals are 19-14 when playing on the road after losing two of their last three games over the last two seasons, as is the case here. The O's meanwhile are just 3-11 in their last 14 games when priced as a favorite of -110 or higher, which is also the situation here, outscored by 2.0 runs on average in that spot. Additionally, Baltimore is a woeful 18-53 in afternoon games over the same stretch, allowing 6.0 runs per game while being outscored by an average margin of 1.6 runs. Take Kansas City +1.5 runs (3*). |
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05-08-22 | White Sox v. Red Sox -145 | 3-2 | Loss | -145 | 2 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston over Chicago at 11:35 am et on Sunday. Enough is enough. The Red Sox suffered another excruciating defeat last night, falling by a 3-1 score in extra innings. I look for them to bounce back on Sunday. Michael Wacha has actually been Boston's best starter in the early going this season, sporting a 1.38 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in 26 innings of work. The Sox, despite their struggles, have actually won each of Wacha's last four outings with their lone loss with him on the hill coming on the road in his season debut in Detroit. Veteran Dallas Keuchel has been wildly inconsistent for the White Sox so far this season. A start at Fenway Park doesn't figure to help his cause as he has allowed 18 earned runs in 24 career innings pitched in Beantown. The Red Sox bullpen has struggled mightily but I do believe their relief corps is far better than they've shown so far and it's only a matter of time before the numbers start to even out. Take Boston (4*). |
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05-07-22 | Brewers v. Braves +1.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta +1.5 runs over Milwaukee at 7:20 pm et on Saturday. Runs will likely come at a premium in this matchup as the Brewers send Corbin Burnes to the hill against Max Fried of the Braves. With that in mind, I'm comfortable laying the juice to grab the insurance run with Atlanta at home. Milwaukee comes in having won four games in a row - with all four of those victories coming by multiple runs. That matches a season-long streak for 2+ run wins. I expect it to end here, noting that Atlanta checks in 32-13 when coming off four or five losses in its last six games over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 2.7 runs on average in that situation. Take Atlanta +1.5 runs (4*). |
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05-07-22 | Blue Jays v. Guardians UNDER 6.5 | Top | 8-3 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 36 m | Show |
MLB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Cleveland at 2:10 pm et on Saturday. The postponement of last night's game works in our favor as far as this play is concerned. Kevin Gausman had made his last two starts on just four days' rest and was slated to do so again last night. With that game being postponed, he'll now be able to pitch on a full five days' rest on Saturday. Note that the last time he pitched on at least five days' rest he turned in his best outing of the young season, allowing just one earned run over eight innings in Boston. In two previous road starts this season he has posted a 1.98 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. It's a similar story for Guardians ace Shane Bieber. He hasn't started a game since April 30th so I'm confident we'll see his best stuff here. In his lone previous home start he gave up only one earned run over six innings against the White Sox. He's made just one previous home start against the Blue Jays, allowing two earned runs over six innings back in 2019. The night off on Friday certainly helps an overworked Blue Jays bullpen that hadn't enjoyed a day off since April 18th. Note that the Jays relief corps has posted a collective 1.42 ERA and 0.92 WHIP on the road this season. Meanwhile, the Guardians bullpen owns a 2.36 ERA and 1.02 WHIP at home. Take the under (10*). |
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05-06-22 | Cardinals v. Giants OVER 7 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
National League Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between St. Louis and San Francisco at 10:15 pm et on Friday. We saw the Cardinals continue their offensive surge in last night's series opener here in San Francisco. The Giants didn't hold up their end of the bargain, however, plating just one run. They've run into some very tough pitching over the last few games but considering they did scratch out 10 hits (and leave 10 men on base) in last night's game, I do think a breakout performance is imminent. Note that the Cards have allowed double-digit hit totals in two of their last three games and I expect a similar outcome tonight. On the flip side, the Giants pitching staff has struggled lately and that's putting it mildly. They've allowed 22, 11, 12, 5, 11 and 12 hits over their last six games and now turn to a struggling Alex Cobb on Friday. Cobb turned in about as bad an outing as a pitcher can have at the big league level last time out, allowing five runs before exiting with only two outs in the first inning. While Cards starter Jordan Hicks has a promising future, he continues to only make brief appearances in a starting role. That leaves a Cards bullpen that has been anything but invincible, recording a 4.35 ERA and 1.31 WHIP over their last seven games. Expect plenty of offense in this game tonight. Take the over (10*). |
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05-06-22 | Rays v. Mariners -124 | 8-7 | Loss | -124 | 10 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle over Tampa Bay at 9:40 pm et on Friday. We won with the Mariners on the run-line last night and were certainly fortunate to do so in a tight 4-3 loss. Here, I look for Seattle to do one better and actually snap its four-game skid at the expense of the streaking Rays. It's been quite a fall from grace for the Mariners as they've now lost eight of their last nine games overall. It all started against these same Rays in St. Petersburg. I do look for them to regain their footing with arguably their best pitcher on the mound in Logan Gilbert. He may not be getting the national attention he deserves but he's been one of the best pitchers in baseball through the first month of the season. Gilbert checks in sporting a sparkling 0.64 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in 28 innings of work. The Mariners have won all five of his starts. That includes an 8-4 win over these same Rays as Gilbert came an out shy of lasting six shutout innings. Matt Wisler will counter for Tampa Bay. He's served the 'opener' role twice this season and has admittedly pitched well. I simply feel the Mariners bats are poised for a breakout performance here after being held to five hits or less in four consecutive games. Keep in mind, prior to that stretch they had recorded double-digit hit totals in five of their previous eight games. This is a game Seattle quite simply needs to get in order to stop the bleeding. Take Seattle (6*). |
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05-06-22 | White Sox v. Red Sox -160 | 4-2 | Loss | -160 | 7 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston over Chicago at 7:10 pm et on Friday. Boston is struggling right now. Sending two back of the rotation starters to the hill against the Angels over the last two days didn't help matters. Here on Friday, I look for Nathan Eovaldi to help the Sox snap out of their funk. Vince Velasquez will take the ball for Chicago. He tossed 5 2/3 innings of shutout ball against the aforementioned Angels last time out. Don't count on a repeat performance here as he was rocked for five earned runs in just 3 1/3 innings in his only previous road start this season and got lit up for eight earned runs without lasting even three innings in a start here at Fenway Park as a member of the Phillies last season. Eovaldi meanwhile has been getting stronger with each start and comes off a seven inning shutout performance against the Orioles. He's come up empty win-wise over his last two outings but it certainly hasn't been his fault as he gave up just two earned runs in 14 innings in those two starts. Eovaldi faced the White Sox once last season, striking out 10 while working into the seventh inning in an 11-4 cakewalk. While I don't love what I've seen from the Red Sox bullpen so far this season, I do think it's only a matter of time before that group rights the ship. Let's call for the turnaround to begin tonight. Take Boston (5*). |
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05-05-22 | Rays v. Mariners +1.5 | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle +1.5 runs over Tampa Bay at 9:40 pm et on Thursday. While the Rays enter this series 'fat and happy' following a three-game sweep of the A's in Oakland, culminating with yesterday's 3-0 shutout victory, the Mariners enter hungry off a three-game sweep at the hands of the Astros in Houston. Nothing went Seattle's way in that series in Houston. Needless to say it will be happy to be back home on Thursday. As if the Mariners needed any more motivation, they'll also be looking to avenge a series loss suffered on the road against the Rays in April. They actually outscored Tampa Bay 11-9 over the course of that three-game set. There's not a lot to choose as far as the starting pitching matchup goes tonight with Shane McClanahan taking the ball for the Rays against Robbie Ray of the Mariners. I do think that Ray was brought in precisely for situations like this where Seattle needs a pick-me-up and it's worth noting that Ray has guided the M's to victory in each of his previous two home starts this season recording a 3.00 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in 12 innings of work. With the the bullpens virtually a wash as well, we'll grab the insurance run with the Mariners in what projects to be a tightly-contested affair. Take Seattle +1.5 runs (3*). |
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05-05-22 | Mets v. Phillies -158 | 8-7 | Loss | -158 | 8 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia over New York at 6:45 pm et on Thursday. The Phillies will likely be happy to see the Rangers leave town after they dropped consecutive games in frustrating fashion against Texas. On Tuesday, Philadelphia blew a 3-2 lead and lost 6-4 despite outhitting the Rangers - unable to cash in on its many opportunities at the plate. Last night, the Phils couldn't score a single run in nine innings, wasting Zack Wheeler's fine performance in an eventual 2-1 extra innings loss. I do feel that the Phillies offense is on the verge of breaking out, noting that they rattled off 17 hits but left 13 on base in the two-game series against Texas. Here, they'll be looking to get back at the Mets after dropping two of three in Queens last weekend. I like their chances with Aaron Nola taking the ball on Thursday. He hasn't posted a win since his season debut but it hasn't been for lack of effort. Nola has posted a 2.45 ERA and 0.87 WHIP over his last three starts. He struck out nine without walking a batter, allowing three earned runs in six innings against these same Mets last time out. Taijuan Walker will counter for the Mets. He's only made two appearances so far this season as he deals with a nagging injury. While he has pitched reasonably well, I'm not convinced we'll see him work deep into this game. That means we should see plenty of a sagging Mets bullpen that has posted a 5.81 ERA and 1.15 WHIP and has recorded four saves but also three blown saves on the road this season. By contrast, the Phillies bullpen owns a 3.42 ERA and 1.16 WHIP with three saves converted and none blown at home. Take Philadelphia (3*). |
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05-05-22 | Nationals v. Rockies -135 | 7-9 | Win | 100 | 7 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on Colorado over Washington at 3:10 pm et on Thursday. We won with the Rockies last night and we'll come right back with them again on Thursday as they wrap up this three-game series before heading back out on the road. As is often the case, the Rockies have been much better at home so far this season, going 10-5 while averaging 5.5 runs per game here at Coors Field. The same goes for today's starter Antonio Senzatela. He has posted a stellar 1.84 ERA in three home starts this season, with Colorado winning all three of those contests. His 1.77 WHIP certainly leaves a lot to be desired but I do like the way he's limited the damage and some of that has just been bad luck as he's actually issued only three walks in 14 2/3 innings of work here at home. Aaron Sanchez gets another turn in the Nationals rotation after a solid performance in San Francisco last weekend. His early returns are certainly nothing to write home about this season though as he's recorded a 6.75 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in two starts, covering a span of 9 1/3 innings. The Rockies actually saw him twice last season and had some success with Sanchez allowing six earned runs in 8 2/3 innings. The Washington bullpen remains a disaster on the road where it has posted a 6.58 ERA and 1.69 WHIP with just one save converted to go along with one blown. In stark contrast, the Rockies 'pen has recorded a 3.76 ERA and 1.22 WHIP at home, picking up its eighth home save last night, compared to only two blown at Coors Field. Take Colorado (3*). |
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05-04-22 | Nationals v. Rockies -138 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Colorado over Washington at 8:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Rockies got shelled in the opener of this series last night, failing to match a season-high four-game winning streak in the process. The Nationals bats have come alive on their current road trip but I look for them to cool off on Wednesday. First, let's talk about Nats' starter Pat Corbin. How many more turns will he get in the rotation? The Nats' have now dropped each of his last six starts and 17 of his last 22 outings going back to last season. It hasn't just been a case of bad luck either. Corbin has been awful. He checks in sporting a 8.69 ERA and 2.08 WHIP in 19 2/3 innings of work this season. His counterpart tonight, Austin Gomber, got off to a shaky start but has since turned it around, allowing only two earned runs in 12 innings pitched over his last two starts, striking out 14 and walking just one along the way. While the Rockies bullpen hasn't been great lately, it still owns a collective 3.93 ERA and 1.27 WHIP with seven saves converted and two blown here at home this season. Contrast that with the Nats' 'pen, which has posted a 6.58 ERA and 1.69 WHIP with just one save converted and one blown on the road. Take Colorado (6*). |
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05-04-22 | Rangers v. Phillies -160 | 2-1 | Loss | -160 | 11 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia over Texas at 6:45 pm et on Wednesday. The Phillies coughed up a 3-2 lead in an eventual 6-4 loss to the Rangers to open this brief two-game set last night. Philadelphia had numerous opportunities to cash in late in that contest but simply couldn't find a clutch hit. I expect a different story to unfold on Wednesday. The Rangers have now matched a season-high with three straight wins. I look for them to fall short with left-hander Martin Perez on the hill here, however. Note that the Phillies are averaging 5.7 runs per game while winning four of six games against southpaw starters this season. Zack Wheeler will be tasked with helping the Phils end their two-game slide. As usual, he's been terrific at home, posting a 2.87 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in 15 2/3 innings of work. Behind Wheeler is a Philadelphia bullpen that has recorded a 3.40 ERA and 1.15 WHIP with three saves converted and none blown at home this season. The Rangers 'pen has posted similar numbers on the road, but have just two converted saves to go along with two blown. Take Philadelphia (4*). |
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05-04-22 | Diamondbacks v. Marlins -143 | 8-7 | Loss | -143 | 6 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami over Arizona at 12:40 pm et on Wednesday. We missed with the Marlins last night as their late rally fell short in a second consecutive 5-4 loss at the hands of the D'Backs. That makes it three straight losses for Miami but I look for it to bounce back on 'getaway day'. D'Backs starter Madison Bumgarner has been terrific in the early going this season. For as well as he has pitched, the Snakes have still only managed to win two of his five starts, however. A big reason for that is a shaky bullpen that once again struggled to hold a big lead last night (Arizona led the game 5-0). I also feel some regression could be in order when it comes to Bumgarner, noting that he'll be starting on just four days' rest for a third consecutive turn in the rotation. Elieser Hernandez will counter for Miami. He has labored through his last two outings but does enter this start undefeated in his last three trips to the hill. His lone previous daytime start was arguably his best of the season as he allowed just one earned run over six frames in an 11-3 win over the Phillies. Behind Hernandez is a Marlins bullpen that has been terrific in the early going this season, tossing 4 2/3 innings of shutout ball again last night to even give the Fish a chance at rallying. Take Miami (5*). |
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05-03-22 | Rays v. A's +116 | 10-7 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oakland over Tampa Bay at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday. The A's have now dropped four games in a row following last night's lifeless performance in the opener of this series. I do look for them to respond on Tuesday, however, as they send Paul Blackburn - who has arguably been their best starter so far this season - to the hill against the Rays. The A's are still just three games under .500 this season so it's not as if the sky is falling. If they're to turn it around, Blackburn would appear to be the right guy to have on the mound as he has posted a 4-0 team record with a sparkling 1.35 ERA and 0.80 WHIP through four starts this season. That includes a start that saw him toss five innings of shutout ball in a 13-2 rout of the Rays in St. Petersburg. Behind Blackburn is an A's bullpen that continues to pitch well, having recorded a collective 2.59 ERA and 1.15 WHIP with three saves converted and only one blown here at home this season. The Rays are still undecided as to who will start this game but I'm confident back the A's as an 'action' bet in this prime bounce-back spot on Tuesday. Take Oakland (4*). |
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05-03-22 | Nationals v. Rockies -148 | 10-2 | Loss | -148 | 13 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on Colorado over Washington at 8:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Nationals impressively turned things around by taking two of three games in San Francisco over the weekend. They probably would have liked to get right back out there on Monday but instead they had a travel day before opening this series in Colorado on Tuesday. The Rockies are feeling some good vibes as well after a three-game sweep of the lowly Reds. I simply feel Colorado's recent success is more sustainable as we head into this series. The Rockies are 9-4 at home this season, averaging 5.8 runs per game at Coors Field. Interestingly, the Nationals are averaging 6.0 runs per game on the road yet that's only translated to a 5-5 'away' record. That has a lot to do with a struggling Washington pitching staff, noting that its bullpen has posted a 6.69 ERA and 1.75 WHIP with only one save converted and one blown away from home this season. In stark contrast, the Rockies 'pen has posted a 3.69 ERA and 1.23 WHIP here at home, converting seven saves while blowing only two. The starting pitching matchup is virtually a 'wash' based on early returns this season but I look for the Colorado offense and bullpen to prove to be the difference here. Take Colorado (5*). |
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05-03-22 | Rangers v. Phillies -155 | 6-4 | Loss | -155 | 11 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia over Texas at 6:45 pm et on Tuesday. The Rangers took consecutive games from another N.L. East opponent in the Braves over the weekend. Meanwhile, the Phillies dropped two of three games against the rival Mets in New York. I look for Philadelphia to bounce back here at home with one of their most consistent starters going back to last season taking the ball in Ranger Suarez. While Suarez hasn't gotten off to the start he had hoped for, the Phillies have still managed to win all four of his outings. The Rangers entered the seasons with sky-high offensive expectations but it hasn't really worked out all that great so far as they've won just 8 of 22 games and check in having scored three runs or less in seven of their last nine contests. It's true the Phillies were no-hit by the Mets this past Friday but they've still scored 6+ runs in five of their last seven games, averaging 6.0 runs per contest over that stretch. The Rangers are still undecided on their starter for Tuesday's game but there aren't many great options on this pitching staff. Look for Philadelphia to bounce back. Take Philadelphia (4*). |
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05-03-22 | Diamondbacks v. Marlins -155 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -155 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
N.L. Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Miami over Arizona at 6:40 pm et on Tuesday. The D'Backs took the opener of this series last night to improve to an even 6-6 on the road this season. The Marlins didn't get a strong start from Pablo Lopez and ultimately dug too big of a hole to rally, falling just short in a 5-4 contest. After winning seven straight games, Miami has now dropped consecutive games. I look for it to bounce back here. Humberto Castellanos is expected to get the start for the D'Backs. He has turned in one good start and one bad one on the road this season but the D'Backs have lost both of those games by lopsided margins of 5-0 and 8-3. With Castellanos unlikely to work deep into this game (he's yet to last six innings in any of his 10 previous big league starts) we'll likely see plenty of a D'Backs bullpen that entered last night's action sporting a 5.62 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in 40 innings of work on the road this season. Left-hander Trevor Rogers projects to get the start for the Marlins in this one. He got off to a rough start through two outings this season but has since turned it around, allowing only one earned run on six hits over 11 innings in his last two outings. He should feel confident facing the D'Backs after tossing six impressive innings against them in a 5-1 win in Arizona last season. Miami's relief corps entered last night's game with a 3.12 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in 34 2/3 innings pitched at home this season with three saves converted and none blown. Take Miami (10*). |
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05-02-22 | Mariners v. Astros -129 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston over Seattle at 8:10 pm et on Monday. The Astros are coming off a tight series in Toronto that saw them drop two of three games. I expect them to get back in the win column as they host the division rival Mariners on Monday. Houston will be looking for payback after dropping two of three games in Seattle earlier this season, including an 11-1 setback in a game that featured the identical pitching matchup to what we'll see tonight. Marco Gonzales will take the hill for Seattle. He was forced to exit his last start after just 1/3 of an inning due to an injury. That wasn't before giving up a hit, a walk and an earned run. Note that Gonzales also struggled in his previous road outing this season, lasting only two innings in a 10-4 loss in Minnesota (he gave up six runs, two of them earned). While he did pitch exceptionally well in his previous outing against the Mariners, that was at home. In Gonzales's five career starts in Houston, the Mariners have been outscored by a combined margin of 36-12. Jake Odorizzi will counter for Houston. He got hit hard in that start opposing Gonzales earlier this season. However, in two home starts against the Mariners since the start of last season, Odorizzi has posted a 2-0 team record, allowing just three earned runs in 10 2/3 innings. We'll also note that the Astros bullpen has been outstanding at home this season, recording a collective 1.35 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 26 2/3 innings of work. Take Houston (6*). |
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05-02-22 | Twins v. Orioles OVER 7.5 | 2-1 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Baltimore at 7:05 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams are in fine form at the dish right now, noting that the Twins have pounded out 14, 9, 5, 9, 11, 3, 14 and 13 hits over their last eight games while the Orioles have posted their two highest hit totals of the season in their last four games (14 and 13). Meanwhile, the O's have yet to go more than two games without recording an error this season, which is a streak they'll test tonight. Note that they're just three games removed from a five-error affair against the Yankees last week. The Twins have averaged 6.0 runs per game over the last week while the Orioles have averaged 4.7 runs per contest over that same stretch. While Baltimore's average doesn't appear overly impressive, it is certainly an improvement over its season scoring average of 3.2 runs per game. There's nothing special about the pitching matchup in this one while the potential is certainly there for late runs with the Orioles bullpen in particular struggling to the tune of a collective 5.83 ERA and 1.50 WHIP over their last seven games. Just two of six meetings between these two teams last season totalled fewer than nine runs. Take the over (5*). |
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05-02-22 | Twins -140 v. Orioles | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
A.L. Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Minnesota over Baltimore at 7:05 pm et on Monday. The Twins are locked-in at the plate right now, having delivered 14, 9, 5, 9, 11, 3, 14 and 13 hits over their last eight games and even in the two outliers over that stretch they still managed to go 1-1 (they're 9-1 over their last 10 games overall). The Orioles delivered consecutive wins over a struggling Red Sox squad over the weekend but I think the win streak ends here. While I give the Twins only a slight edge in terms of starting pitching, I do think they have a more decisive advantage as far as the bullpens go with Minnesota's relief corps having posted a collective 2.28 ERA and 1.05 WHIP over its last seven games while Baltimore's 'pen has recorded a 5.83 ERA and 1.50 WHIP over the same stretch. Despite their nine-run explosion yesterday, the O's are still averaging only 3.2 runs per game at home this season while Minnesota has put up 4.0 runs per contest on the road. Take Minnesota (10*). |
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05-01-22 | Tigers v. Dodgers -240 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over Detroit at 4:10 pm et on Sunday. This play sets up similarly to the Giants yesterday and I expect a similar outcome as well. The Tigers snapped their six-game losing streak with a 5-1 win over Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers last night. Look for Walker Buehler, fresh off a complete game shutout, to pick up the Boys in Blue on Sunday afternoon. Even with last night's victory, the Tigers are still averaging a woeful 2.2 runs per game on the road this season and don't figure to improve on that mark against the Dodgers best arm on Sunday. Meanwhile, Detroit starter Eduardo Rodriguez has posted a 5.03 ERA and 1.27 WHIP despite having the benefit of making three of his four starts at pitcher-friendly Comerica Park this season. The Dodgers check in averaging 5.0 runs per game at home this season and they improve on that here. Take Los Angeles (3*). |
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05-01-22 | Nationals v. Giants OVER 7.5 | 11-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and San Francisco at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. This has been an extremely high-scoring series so far with the first two games producing a whopping 30 runs. I expect more of the same on Sunday. The Nationals bats have come to life, pounding out 33 hits in the last two games. They're now averaging 5.9 runs per game on just shy of .300 hitting on the road this season. The Giants are averaging just under five runs per game at home. They've recorded double-digit hit totals in five of their last eight games overall. An often overlooked aspect of the game when it comes to playing MLB totals is defense. Both of these teams have struggled in that realm lately with the Nats' committing nine errors in their last five games including three last night and the Giants recording at least one error in seven consecutive games. There's nothing special about today's starting pitching matchup and we also have a good chance for some late scoring noting that the Nats' bullpen has posted an ugly 5.97 ERA and 1.67 WHIP in 34 2/3 innings of work away from home and the Giants 'pen having recorded a collective 3.51 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in 41 innings pitched at home. Take the over (6*). |
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05-01-22 | Mariners v. Marlins UNDER 7 | 7-3 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Seattle and Miami at 1:40 pm et on Sunday. We saw a return to business as usual for the Marlins yesterday as they prevailed in another low-scoring affair. I expect more of the same on Sunday. Mariners starter Logan Gilbert has quietly been one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball through the first month of the season. He checks in sporting a 0.40 ERA and 0.85 WHIP through his first four starts, striking out 22 and walking only four in 22 1/3 innings along the way. For the Marlins, Sandy Alcantara has been terrific as well. He has recorded a 1.26 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in 14 1/3 innings pitched at home this season. Both bullpens have been reliable as well with the Mariners 'pen having recorded a 3.18 ERA and 1.06 WHIP on the road and the Marlins relief corps posting a 2.87 ERA and 1.18 WHIP at home. In fact, Miami has already recorded nine saves while blowing just one. Take the under (6*). |
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05-01-22 | Twins v. Rays -145 | 9-3 | Loss | -145 | 3 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay over Minnesota at 1:10 pm et on Sunday. Big spot for the Rays here as they look to wrap up their homestand on a winning note before heading out west for a 10-game road trip (they won't play another home game until May 13th). Yesterday's 9-1 loss is the type of defeat that isn't all that difficult to bounce back from. Just ask the Twins, who dropped the opener of this series in lopsided fashion 6-1 before delivering yesterday's blowout. The Rays did successfully bounce back from their previous 'worst loss' of the season - a 13-2 setback on April 11th - scoring nine runs in a victory the next day. Josh Fleming gets the call for the Rays on Sunday. His lone previous start this season wasn't particularly good as he allowed three earned runs over 3 1/3 innings against the A's. He did strike out six and walk only one in that contest. I expect a better showing from him here, and it's certainly worth noting that the Rays bullpen has been terrific, posting a 2.99 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 102 1/3 innings this season. Josh Winder will make his first career start for the Twins. He isn't likely to work deep into the game and behind him is a Minnesota bullpen that has recorded a 4.26 ERA and 1.17 WHIP with just one save converted and one blown on the road this season. Despite yesterday's nine-run outburst, the Twins are still averaging only 3.4 runs per game and hitting .222 as a team on the road this season. Take Tampa Bay (5*). |
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04-30-22 | Diamondbacks v. Cardinals -150 | 2-0 | Loss | -150 | 6 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on St. Louis over Arizona at 2:15 pm et on Saturday. I actually liked the way last night's matchup set up for the underdog D'Backs but ultimately left them off the card. Here, I don't believe Arizona is set up favorably as it sends Merrill Kelly to the hill against Miles Mikolas. Kelly has pitched well through his first four starts this season. However, it is worth noting that his three most difficult opponents have all come at home (Padres, Astros and Dodgers). His lone road outing came against a struggling Nationals lineup (which admittedly did break out in San Francisco last night but had been slumping). The D'Backs rate out as having one of baseball's weaker bullpens, entering last night's game sporting a 5.52 ERA and 1.52 WHIP away from home this season. Miles Mikolas shook off a rough season debut to allow just one earned run over his last three starts, spanning 18 2/3 innings of work. The Cards bullpen entered last night's game sporting a collective 2.74 ERA and 1.11 WHIP this season with four converted saves and only one blown. Take St. Louis (6*). |
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04-29-22 | Padres v. Pirates OVER 7 | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
N.L. Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between San Diego and Pittsburgh at 6:35 pm et on Friday. The Padres are a terrific 'over' play right now for a few reasons. First and foremost, they're locked in at the plate, knocking out 8, 12, 8 and 11 hits over their last four games. But they're also giving up their share, with the opposition collecting 8, 8, 10 and 8 hits over that stretch. Finally, they're playing awful defensive. They've managed to rack up a whopping nine errors over their last four games. Here, they'll face a reeling Pirates squad that is also playing poor defense at the moment, with seven errors over their last five contests. The Buccos aren't hitting as well as the Padres right now, but they are just two games removed from a 13-hit, 8-run barrage against the Brewers. On the flip side, Pittsburgh has yielded its opponents 23, 10, 14, 4 and 9 hits over its last five games. Take the over (10*). |
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04-28-22 | Diamondbacks v. Cardinals -165 | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on St. Louis over Arizona at 7:45 pm et on Thursday. Yesterday's come-from-behind win over the Mets was the type of victory the Cardinals can build off of and they're facing an ideal opponent to do just that in the D'Backs on Thursday. Arizona just took two of three games from the Dodgers but is in for a letdown here. Note that the Snakes are just 3-4 on the road this season, averaging 3.1 runs per game. In stark contrast, the Cards have averaged 5.3 runs per game at home. I like the advantages we have with the Cards in terms of starting and relief pitching here. Humberto Castellanos hasn't lasted beyond the fifth inning in either of his first two starts for the D'Backs this season and behind him is a bullpen that has posted a 5.76 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in 25 innings pitched away from home. Meanwhile, Cards starter Dakota Hudson tossed 6 2/3 shutout innings last time out and the St. Louis' bullpen has recorded a 2.97 ERA and 1.17 WHIP at home this season. Take St. Louis (5*). |
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04-28-22 | Guardians +1.5 v. Angels | 1-4 | Loss | -140 | 9 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland +1.5 runs over Los Angeles at 4:05 pm et on Thursday. This series hasn't gone well for the Guardians. In fact, the last week hasn't gone well for the Guardians as they've gone winless through six games in New York and Anaheim. I will back them here, however, as they check in 22-12 when coming off a loss by 4+ runs going back to last season, outscoring opponents by 1.6 runs on average in that spot. Also note that the Angels are 14-22 when coming off a victory by 4+ runs over the same stretch, outscored by 1.0 run on average in that situation. Cleveland averages 6.5 runs per game against left-handed starting pitching this season, which is what they'll be up against on Thursday as Reid Detmers gets the call for the Angels. Detmers faced Cleveland once last season and didn't make it through the fourth inning, allowing three earned runs on seven hits and three walks in an eventual 5-1 loss. Meanwhile, Guardians starter Cal Quantrill is off to a solid start this season having posted a 3.94 ERA and 1.19 WHIP through 16 innings of work. He faced the Angels once last season and that start was a good one as he tossed seven shutout innings in a 3-0 victory. While I gave the Guardians bullpen the edge entering this series, I'm willing to admit the two relief corps' are virtually a 'wash' at this point. I'm comfortable grabbing the insurance run with the Guardians at a reasonable price here. Take Cleveland +1.5 runs (5*). |
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04-27-22 | Guardians +1.5 v. Angels | 5-9 | Loss | -120 | 13 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland +1.5 runs over Los Angeles at 9:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Guardians are reeling right now, losers of five straight games including the first two in this series. They'll have arguably their best starter in the early going this season on the hill tonight though in Zach Plesac. He has posted a 1.53 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in three starts this season, working at least into the sixth inning in all three of those outings. His opposing starter will be Shohei Ohtani and as usual he appears to be overvalued here, noting that the Angels have actually lost two of his first three starts this season. Note that Ohtani faced the Guardians just once last season, his only previous start against them, with the Halos losing that game by a 3-2 score here in Anaheim. While the Angels bullpen has held up well lately, I'm still not buying its long-term sustainability, noting that it still owns a 5.27 ERA and 1.22 WHIP with four saves converted but also three blown here at home this season. For its part, the Guardians 'pen has yet to record a save on the road while blowing two opportunities, however that relief corps has recorded a collective 2.73 ERA and 1.06 WHIP over its last seven games and I am willing to buy in as far as it keeping this game tight at the very least on Wednesday. Here, we'll note that the Guardians are 21-8 after being held to one run or less in their previous game going back to last season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 2.3 runs. The Angels on the other hand are 3-14 when playing at home after allowing three runs or less in consecutive games over the last 2+ seasons, as is the case here, outscored by 2.5 runs on average in that spot. Take Cleveland +1.5 runs (8*). |
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04-27-22 | Mariners v. Rays -134 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay over Seattle at 6:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Rays dropped the opener of this series last night, falling behind big early and never really recovering. I look for them to answer back tonight. The Mariners have won a season-high four games in a row. In fact, they've lost just once in their last eight games. Interestingly, their lone loss over that stretch came with tonight's starter Marco Gonzalez on the hill. Gonzalez has made just one road start this season and it didn't go well. He was ripped for six hits and six runs, two of them earned, in just two innings in a 10-4 loss to the Twins. Note that while the M's have been winning, their bullpen remains a work-in-progress. They've converted three saves but have also blown three this season. Over its last seven games, the Mariners relief corps has posted a collective 3.86 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. On the flip side, the Rays bullpen has posted a 2.51 ERA and 0.96 WHIP over its last seven contests, converting a pair of saves without a blown save along the way. Drew Rasmussen will get the start for Tampa on Wednesday. He's made just one home start this season and pitched reasonably well, allowing two earned runs on three hits over four innings. Here we'll note that the Rays are an incredible 31-12 when playing at home as a favorite priced at -150 or less over the last 2+ seasons. Take Tampa Bay (6*). |
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04-26-22 | Guardians v. Angels OVER 8 | 1-4 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Los Angeles at 9:35 pm et on Tuesday. Off a 3-0 shutout loss to open this series last night I look for the Guardians bats to finally wake from their slumber against Patrick Sandoval and the Angels pitching staff on Tuesday. With that being said, I'm not convinced Cleveland can keep the Los Angeles bats at bay. Triston McKenzie will get the nod for the Guardians. He has yet to last five innings in a start this season, which isn't out of the ordinary as he generally puts a lot of runners on base due to his inconsistent command. McKenzie walked four over 4 1/3 innings against the White Sox last week. Behind McKenzie is a Guardians bullpen that has posted a 4.38 ERA and 1.21 WHIP with a pair of blown saves (and none converted) on the road this season. As I mentioned, Patrick Sandoval will start for Los Angeles. Like McKenzie, he also likes to put runners on base, or has a tendency to do so anyway, allowing seven hits while handing out five free passes in only eight innings pitched so far this season. Despite their recent struggles at the dish, the Guardians are still averaging 5.2 runs per game and hitting .261 as a team on the road this season. They faced Sandoval once last season, scoring two earned runs in four innings in a game that totalled 11 runs. Behind Sandoval is an Angels bullpen that much like last year, has struggled here at home, posting a collective 5.31 ERA and 1.23 WHIP with three saves converted and three blown. Take the over (7*). |
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04-26-22 | Mets v. Cardinals +106 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
N.L. Game of the Month. My selection is on St. Louis over New York at 7:45 pm et on Tuesday. The Cardinals suffered an excruciating loss in the opener of this series last night with Nolan Arenado's ill-timed ninth inning throwing error (with two outs) ultimately leading to a 5-2 loss. I do expect them to bounce back on Tuesday as they halt their brief two-game losing streak. The Mets have won two games in a row and are off to a 3-1 start to their current road trip. Keep in mind, they're just 20-31 when coming off consecutive wins going back to last season, outscored by 0.6 runs on average in that situation. Chris Bassitt gets the start for New York. He was terrific in his first two starts this season but those came against the struggling Nationals and D'Backs. In his most recent outing he was tagged for five earned runs over six innings against the Giants. Note that the Mets bullpen has struggled on the road this season, recording a collective 4.21 ERA and 1.33 WHIP with three converted saves to go along with three blown. Jordan Hicks gets another turn in the rotation for the Cardinals. He gave up one earned runs in a short three-inning outing against the Marlins last week. He's unlikely to work deep into this game either but that's fine as the Cards 'pen has posted a 3.42 ERA and 0.97 WHIP over their last seven games. While St. Louis produced only two runs last night that wasn't unexpected as it was up against one of the best pitchers in baseball in Max Scherzer. Note that the Cards are still averaging an impressive 5.4 runs per contest at home this season. Take St. Louis (10*). |
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04-26-22 | Marlins v. Nationals +1.5 | 5-2 | Loss | -147 | 11 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington +1.5 runs over Miami at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Marlins are coming off an impressive series win in Atlanta over the weekend. They probably would have liked to have gotten right back out there yesterday but instead had a day off before opening this series in Washington. The Nationals, meanwhile, likely welcomed the off day following a series sweep at the hands of the Giants, at home no less. The Nats have now lost five games in a row but I look for them to punch back on Tuesday. Josiah Gray gets the start for Washington. He's arguably been their best starter so far this season, particularly over his last two outings as he allowed just four hits and one earned run in 10 1/3 innings in victories over the Braves and D'Backs. He turned in two solid outings against the Marlins last season, allowing four earned runs in 12 innings with the Nats' going 2-0 when factoring in the +1.5 run-line. Sandy Alcantara has also pitched well for Miami. However, he's been much better in his two home outings than he was in his lone trip to the hill on the road. The Marlins have won just twice in his eight career starts against Washington. We'll use the +1.5 run-line to our advantage here, noting that Miami is averaging only 3.5 runs per game on the road this season. If there's one area where the Nats' have an advantage and should help them keep this one tight at the very least, it's the bullpen. Washington's 'pen has posted a 2.67 ERA and 1.19 WHIP over its last seven games. The Nats' relief corps has recorded two saves with none blown at home this season. Take Washington +1.5 runs (6*). |
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04-25-22 | Rockies v. Phillies -182 | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 7 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia over Colorado at 6:45 pm et on Monday. The Rockies are coming off consecutive victories in Detroit, which came on the heels of a 13-0 drubbing in the opener of that series. We've surprisingly seen the Rockies win four of their first five road games so far this season - notable when you consider they're 10-32 in road games in the first half of the season going back to last year. I expect them to hit a speedbump in Philadelphia on Monday. The Phillies just wrapped up a disappointing series loss at home against the Brewers. Remember, last week they also dropped two of three games against these same Rockies in Colorado. Still, I believe the steep price is warranted here. Kyle Gibson will take the ball for Philadelphia. Including a victory over the A's earlier this season, Gibson has posted a 12-2 team record in 14 home starts going back to the start of last year. He faced the Rockies last week and despite the Phils falling short by a 6-5 score, Gibson didn't pitch all that poorly, allowing only three earned runs in six innings - not bad for a start at hitter-friendly Coors Field. Here, Gibson will get the opportunity to face the Rockies at home for the first time in his career. Kyle Freeland will counter for Colorado. He opposed Gibson last week and allowed only two earned runs over five innings in that 6-5 victory. While he's had success facing the Phils at home over the course of his career (3-0 team record in three starts), he's gone winless in a pair of previous outings here in Philadelphia, including a 6-1 defeat last season in which he allowed four earned runs over six frames. Even if Freeland pitches well here, there's no guarantee that the Rockies bullpen can hold up its end of the bargain. The Colorado 'pen has posted an ugly 7.98 ERA and 1.86 WHIP over its last seven games. The Rockies have already blown three saves this season. On the flip side, the Phillies 'pen has posted a less than impressive 5.40 ERA but a more respectable 1.29 WHIP over its last seven games. Note that the Phils relief corps has combined to record a 3.93 ERA and 1.04 WHIP with three converted saves and none blown at home this season. Take Philadelphia (4*). |
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04-24-22 | Blue Jays v. Astros -126 | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 6 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston over Toronto at 2:10 pm et on Sunday. The Astros have inexplicably lost four consecutive games since opening their current homestand with a decisive 8-3 win over the Angels on Monday. I look for them to salvage the finale of this three-game series against the Blue Jays on Sunday. What better pitcher to bounce back against than Yusei Kikuchi. The Astros are familiar with the left-hander from his days with Seattle. Kikuchi has posted a career 6.00 ERA and 1.56 WHIP with a 4-7 team record in 11 outings against Houston. Meanwhile, Astros starter Luis Garcia last faced the Blue Jays last June in Toronto, allowing just one earned run over six innings in a 6-3 Astros victory. While the series hasn't gone well for the home side so far, the Astros are actually catching the Blue Jays at the right time as Toronto has yet to really heat up at the plate. The Jays check in having scored four runs or less in seven of their last nine games. Take Houston (7*). |
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04-24-22 | Marlins v. Braves -123 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -123 | 6 h 45 m | Show |
N.L. East Game of the Month. My selection is on Atlanta over Miami at 1:35 pm et on Sunday. It's been a rough week for the Braves as they've dropped three of five games against the Dodgers and Marlins. They can salvage a series victory here, however, heading into an off day on Monday. I look for them to do just that. Note that Atlanta checks in 29-11 when coming off four or five losses over their last six games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 2.8 runs on average in that situation. The Marlins on the other hand are a long-term 21-53 when playing on the road after scoring 8+ runs in their previous game, which is also the situation here, outscored by an average margin of 1.4 runs in that spot. Note that Marlins starter Jesus Luzardo faced the Braves once last season, allowing four earned runs on four hits and five walks in just three innings in an 11-9 loss last August. Bryce Elder will counter for Atlanta and he should be confident given he worked into the sixth inning and allowed just three earned runs in a 16-4 victory over Washington in his lone previous home start this season. While the Braves bullpen hasn't been as good as we've come to expect out of the gates this season, it has managed to convert six of seven save opportunities. Take Atlanta (10*). |
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04-23-22 | Red Sox v. Rays -110 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
A.L. East Game of the Month. My selection is on Tampa Bay over Boston at 6:10 pm et on Saturday. The Red Sox took the opener of this series in a game that could have easily gone either way. Both of these teams are off to disappointing 7-7 starts. In a game where the pitching is virtually a 'wash', I'll go with what I believe to be the better offense in a bounce-back spot on Saturday. Garrett Whitlock has been effective out of the bullpen for the Red Sox during the early stages of his career but will be making his first big league start here. Meanwhile, the Rays will turn to J.P. Feyereisen in an 'opener' role, much like he served in Chicago last week as the Rays defeated the White Sox 9-3. Despite scoring just three runs last night, Tampa Bay does check in averaging 4.6 runs per game over the last week. The Red Sox have had a slightly tougher time generating runs, averaging 3.4 runs per contest over that stretch. Here, we'll note that the Rays are an impressive 30-11 in their last 41 home games as a favorite of -150 or less. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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04-22-22 | Rangers v. A's OVER 7.5 | 8-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Texas and Oakland at 9:40 pm et on Friday. The Rangers offense hasn't exactly lived up to its lofty expectations so far this season but we saw signs of a breakout last night as they produced eight runs, rallying from a 5-0 deficit to win 8-6 in Seattle. I'm confident they can build on that performance against A's starter Adam Oller, who has allowed seven earned runs in just 4 2/3 innings of work this season, not to mention an A's bullpen that has yet to enjoy an off day this season. On the flip side, I'm not counting on Rangers starter Glenn Otto to shut down the A's offense. He checks in having allowed seven earned runs through his first two starts this season, spanning seven innings. The Rangers bullpen, meanwhile, started bad and has only gotten worse, posting a 5.65 ERA and 1.64 WHIP over its last seven games. Take the over (5*). |
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04-22-22 | Royals v. Mariners UNDER 8 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Kansas City and Seattle at 9:40 pm et on Friday. We saw a high-scoring affair in Seattle last night as the Mariners fell by an 8-6 score against Texas. I'm expecting a different story to unfold on Friday as Seattle hosts Kansas City. The Royals have scored four runs or less in six straight games and have produced a grand total of six runs in each of their last two three-game series'. They'll likely have their hands full with Mariners starter Chris Flexen tonight. He's struggled through his first two outings this season but I see this as an ideal bounce-back spot as he faces a Royals club he held to just one earned run over 5 2/3 innings against last September. Behind Flexen is a Mariners bullpen that has been lights out for the most part this season, checking in having posted a 1.61 ERA and 0.90 WHIP over its last seven contests. Brad Keller will counter for Kansas City. He's been dealing out of the gate this season, working at least six innings in each of his first two starts, giving up just two earned runs in 13 innings. While the Royals bullpen got off to a bit of a rocky start this season, it has since turned it around, recording a collective 0.69 ERA and 0.73 WHIP over its last seven games. Take the under (4*). |
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04-22-22 | Orioles v. Angels -170 | 5-3 | Loss | -170 | 12 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over Baltimore at 9:35 pm et on Friday. The Angels are starting to put together a nice early season run, having won seven of their last nine games. They have the benefit of coming off an off day yesterday while the Orioles were wrapping up another losing series in Oakland. Baltimore has won just four of 13 games so far this season which is about what we expected. I look for it to fall short again on Friday. Bruce Zimmermann has been a bright spot in the Baltimore rotation. He's yet to allow a run through two starts - both victories. His run of good fortune likely comes to an end here, however, and even if it doesn't, I'm not convinced the Orioles bullpen is well-positioned to hold up its end of the bargain. The O's 'pen has already logged more than 60 innings this season and they haven't had an off day since April 14th. Note that Zimmermann has yet to last beyond the fifth inning. He hasn't made it through the sixth in any of his 13 outings going back to the start of last season. Reid Detmers will counter for Los Angeles. He's labored through his first two starts this season but I expect a better performance here as he faces an O's lineup that checks in averaging just 1.6 runs per game and hitting .211 on the road this season. I mentioned the Angels had the day off on Thursday, giving their bullpen a much needed break. After struggling at the start of the season, Los Angeles' relief corps has posted a collective 2.67 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in 30 1/3 innings of work over its last seven games. Take Los Angeles (3*). |
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04-22-22 | Guardians +1.5 v. Yankees | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
Run-Line Game of the Month. My selection is on Cleveland +1.5 runs over New York at 7:05 pm et on Friday. I don't think there's much at all separating these two clubs right now yet we're being offered to back the Guardians with an insurance run at a near pk'em price on Friday. We'll gladly take advantage. Cleveland comes in off an impressive three-game series sweep of the White Sox. The Guardians have hit well so far this season, averaging 5.7 runs per game while batting a collective .278. That's certainly more than can be said of the Yankees, who check in hitting a miserable .220 and averaging just 3.0 runs per contest. There's little to choose between tonight's two starting pitchers. Eli Morgan will make his first start of the season for the Guardians. He should bring some confidence having pitched here at Yankee Stadium last season, allowing only one earned run over six innings in an 11-1 victory. Jameson Taillon's lone outing against Cleveland last season didn't go so well as he was lit up for four earned runs in just four innings in a 7-3 loss. Both bullpens have been solid in the early going this season. While the Yanks 'pen has posted a terrific 2.97 ERA over its last seven games, we have started to see some cracks as evidenced by its 1.62 WHIP over that stretch. By contrast, the Guardians relief corps has posted a sparkling 0.93 WHIP over the same stretch. Take Cleveland +1.5 runs (10*). |
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04-21-22 | Rangers v. Mariners UNDER 8 | Top | 8-6 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 9 m | Show |
MLB Division F5 Innings Total of the Month. My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between Texas and Seattle at 9:40 pm et on Thursday. This has been a fairly low-scoring series through the first two games with Seattle inflicting most of the damage offensively (it has scored 10 of the 14 runs in the series). Here, I'm looking for another low-scoring start. By playing the first five innings only we'll look to avoid a Rangers bullpen that has been awful in the early going this season (5.43 ERA and 1.43 WHIP in 54 2/3 IP). Rangers starter Taylor Hearn has been average at best through two starts, which is about all that Texas can really expect from the back-of-the-rotation starter. With that being said, I'm confident he can hold the Mariners average offense in check here, noting that he faced them twice last season, allowing only two earned runs in 8 2/3 innings. Marco Gonzalez will counter for Seattle. He'll have the benefit of facing a Rangers lineup that while explosive on paper, has yet to wake from its early season slumber (Texas has scored nine runs over its last four games combined). Gonzalez is coming off a scintillating seven-inning performance against the Astros and checks in having allowed just two earned runs over his last three starts against Texas, spanning 20 1/3 innings of work. Take the first five innings under (10*). |
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04-21-22 | Twins -113 v. Royals | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 6 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota first five innings over Kansas City at 2:10 pm et on Thursday. The Royals have gotten the better of the Twins so far in this series but I look for Minnesota to answer back - at least early on in Thursday's series finale. Twins starter Joe Ryan has to feel pretty good about himself after limiting the Red Sox to just one earned run over six innings in their home opener last Friday. Now he looks to help Minnesota avoid its first three-game losing streak of the season. It's not as if the Royals bats have been alive in the early stages of this season, averaging just 2.9 runs per game and hitting .216 as a team here at home. Kansas City starter Zack Greinke isn't fooling anyone at this stage of his career. He's managed just a single strikeout while allowing 10 hits in 11 innings through his first two outings. The Twins saw him once last season, scoring three runs over six innings. I look for them to improve on that performance here as they bounce back after facing a pair of left-handed starters to open the series. We'll back the Twins in the first five innings only here as we look to avoid a Minnesota bullpen that has struggled. Take Minnesota first five innings (5*). |
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04-21-22 | Giants v. Mets UNDER 7.5 | 2-6 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Francisco and New York at 1:10 pm et on Thursday. I'm not expecting much in the way of offense on 'getaway day' in Queens on Thursday afternoon. After a relatively high-scoring opener reached nine total runs in this series, we've seen the last two games total a combined 11 runs. I like the starting pitching matchup here with Anthony DeSclafani going for the Giants against Cookie Carrasco of the Mets. DeSclafani is off to an unimpressive start with an ERA north of four and a WHIP approaching 1.70 through two outings. I expect him to turn it around here, however, noting that he has posted a solid 9:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio through 8 2/3 innings. It's not as if the Mets are tearing the cover off the ball, hitting a collective .247 here at home this season. Cookie Carrasco has allowed just five hits and one earned run over 10 2/3 innings to open the campaign. Like DeSclafani, he faces a favorable matchup here with the Giants hitting just .208 as a team on the road this season. Both bullpens are reliable to say the least. The San Francisco bullpen has posted a collective 1.93 ERA and 1.11 WHIP while the Mets 'pen has recorded a 3.28 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. Take the under (6*). |
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04-20-22 | Twins v. Royals OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -125 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
A.L. Central Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Kansas City at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a relatively low-scoring game between these two teams to open this series last night as the Royals pulled out a 4-3 victory. With the 'under' having gone 3-1 in the Twins last four games and a perfect 4-0 in the Royals last four contests we're being afforded a reasonably low total to work with here - too low in my opinion. There's a reason the Padres were willing to cut Chris Paddack loose, shipping him to Minnesota at the start of the season. He struggled in his Twins debut, allowing three earned runs on six hits over just four innings against the Dodgers last week. I'm not convinced he'll fare any better here. Behind Paddack is a struggling Minnesota bullpen that has posted a collective 5.28 ERA and 1.63 WHIP in 46 innings of work this season. It's a similar story for the Royals 'pen, as it has recorded a 4.69 ERA and 1.38 WHIP in 38 1/3 innings pitched. That Kansas City bullpen could get put to work early in this one as starter Daniel Lynch has worked more than five innings just twice in his last eight starts going back to last season. Lynch labored through his first start this season, allowing six earned runs on nine hits, including three home runs, in five innings against the Cardinals. It's been a case of 'feast-or-famine' for both offenses in the early going this season but I expect both to feast on Wednesday. Take the over (10*). |
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04-20-22 | Yankees v. Tigers +1.5 | 5-3 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit +1.5 runs over New York at 6:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Yankees took the opener of this series last night by a 4-2 score. They actually haven't won consecutive games since opening the season with back-to-back wins over the Red Sox. I expect them to have their hands full with the Tigers here. While Luis Severino certainly has the better numbers of tonight's two starters this season but of course we're talking about a small sample size of just two starts. I don't believe there's all that much separating the two pitchers. Tigers starter Eduardo Rodriguez has faced the Yankees plenty over the course of his career (remember he came over from the Red Sox). He posted a 4-1 team record in five starts against New York last season, allowing just eight earned runs in 23 innings. I think he's catching the Yankees bats at the right time, noting that they've scored more than four runs just twice in 11 games this season. They check in hitting a collective .187 and averaging 2.7 runs per game against left-handed starters this season. Both bullpens have been terrific in the early going this season with the Yanks relief corps having posted a 1.80 ERA and 1.18 WHIP and Detroit's 'pen recording a 2.85 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. Expect a tightly-contested affair on Wednesday. Take Detroit +1.5 runs (4*). |
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04-20-22 | Braves v. Dodgers UNDER 8.5 | 1-5 | Win | 105 | 7 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Los Angeles at 3:10 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a low-scoring game between these two teams last night and I expect a similar story to unfold in Wednesday's series finale. Charlie Morton will take the ball for the Braves. He is coming off a poor outing against the Padres but I'm confident we'll see him bounce back here. Morton has posted a 29% hard-hit ball percentage - nearly 10% lower than the MLB average while his K, HR and BB rates have all been in line with his career averages through his first two starts, spanning 10 1/3 innings this season. Behind Morton is a Braves bullpen that has held up well in the early going this season, recording a 3.81 ERA and 1.09 WHIP with five saves converted and none blown. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 22-10 with the Braves playing on the road after losing two of their last three games going back to last season, resulting in an average total of 8.1 runs. The 'under' is also 31-19 with Atlanta playing on the road with the total set between 7.0 and 8.5 over the same stretch, leading to an average total of just 7.7 runs. The Dodgers will turn to Tony Gonsolin who is likely to only work a few innings here. Gonsolin always seems to be serviceable for the Dodgers and his first two outings this season have been no different as he has allowed just one earned run in seven innings. Of course, the Los Angeles relief corps has been terrific so far this season, posting a 2.00 ERA and 0.80 WHIP in 45 collective innings of work. Take the under (6*). |
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04-19-22 | Cardinals v. Marlins UNDER 8 | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
N.L. Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between St. Louis and Miami at 6:40 pm et on Tuesday. Both of these teams are coming off relatively high-scoring games. In the case of the Marlins, they're fresh off three consecutive 'over' results. I expect a different story to unfold here, however. Cardinals starter Adam Wainwright didn't pitch well last time out. We know he can still pitch though, noting that he tossed six shutout innings against the Pirates in his first outing this season. He posted a 3.05 ERA (his lowest season-long ERA since 2015) and a 1.06 WHIP last year. Jesus Luzardo had a scintillating Marlins debut last week, striking out 12 over five innings of one-run ball against the Angels. While he isn't likely to duplicate that effort here, I still expect him to pitch well against a Cardinals team that has hit a collective .235 on the road so far this season (limited sample size, I know). Going back to the end of last season, Luzardo has allowed just four earned runs while striking out 28 and walking just three in his last 14 1/3 innings of work. While he's certainly gone through some rough times on the mound in recent years, remember he finished top-eight in A.L. Rookie of the Year voting as a member of the A's just two years ago. Both bullpens have been solid in the early going this season with the Cards 'pen posting a 2.14 ERA and 1.13 WHIP and the Marlins relief corps recording a collective 3.34 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. Both 'pens have worked 35 or less innings so far this season and both come off an off day on Monday so it should be all hands on deck here. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 14-4 with the Cardinals coming off a one-run loss going back to last season, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of just 6.3 runs. The 'under' is also 23-11 with the Marlins playing at home after winning two of their last three games over the same stretch, leading to an average total of 7.2 runs. Take the under (10*). |
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04-18-22 | Pirates v. Brewers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
N.L. Central Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and Milwaukee at 7:40 pm et on Monday. You would have to go back five games to find the last time the Pirates posted an 'under' result. I look for that to change on Monday, however, as the Buccos head to Milwaukee to face the Brewers. I would consider both of tonight's starters underrated in some sense. Zach Thompson was effective over four innings in his first start with the Pirates (he came over from Miami in the offseason). Thompson quietly posted a 3.24 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 75 innings pitched with the Marlins last season. For his career he has posted a 34.5% hard-hit ball percentage, nearly 4.5% below the MLB average over that period. Behind Thompson is a Pirates bullpen that has been terrific in the early going this season, posting a collective 2.98 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 42 1/3 innings. Brewers starter Eric Lauer didn't have his best stuff in his season debut but still hung in there, allowing three earned runs in 4 1/3 innings against the Orioles. I expect him to fare better in his first home start of the season, noting that he faced the Pirates once here last season, tossing five shutout innings. He owns a career 2.63 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in seven career starts against Pittsburgh. Like the Pirates, the Brewers have been solid out of the bullpen, recording a collective 3.02 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. As a team, the Brewers are still hitting just .212 and averaging 3.1 runs per game on the season. The Pirates, meanwhile, check in hitting .266 as a team while averaging 4.4 runs per game but figure to suffer some regression in this, just their second 'away' series. Take the under (10*). |
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04-17-22 | Angels v. Rangers +1.5 | Top | 8-3 | Loss | -150 | 7 h 38 m | Show |
A.L. West Run-Line Game of the Month. My selection is on Texas +1.5 runs over Los Angeles at 2:35 pm et on Sunday. The Rangers opened this series with a big win on Thursday but have proceeded to drop the last two games with their pitching failing them. Here, I look for Texas to bounce back, noting that the Angels have gone 12-20 when coming off a win by 4+ runs going back to last season, outscored by 1.3 runs on average along the way. Meanwhile, Texas has gone 15-8 when playing at home off a loss by 4+ runs over the same stretch, outscoring opponents by 0.2 runs on average. There's little to separate the two starters today with Jose Suarez taking the ball for the Angels against Rangers veteran Martin Perez. The same goes for the two bullpens as both have struggled in the early going this season. It's been a number of years since the Angels last reeled off three straight wins over the Rangers by 2+ runs. Look for Texas to bounce back here. Take Texas +1.5 runs (10*). |
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04-16-22 | Cardinals v. Brewers OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
First Five Innings Total of the Week. My selection is on the first five innings 'over' between St. Louis and Milwaukee at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. We've seen these two teams take turns beating up on each other in the first two games of this series with the Brewers taking the opener 5-1 before the Cardinals answered back with a 10-1 victory last night. Here, I look for both teams to show up offensively, particularly early in the game. We'll play the first five innings only as both bullpens have been solid in the early going this season and we'll look to avoid them here. The starters on the other hand were not good in their respective season debuts. Steven Matz made his first start as a Cardinal and proceeded to get smashed for nine hits and seven earned runs in just three innings against the Pirates. Adrian Houser couldn't make it through the fourth inning against the Orioles. Both starters will settle down a little bit here, but I'm not convinced they have any sort of advantage against the opposing hitters here. Expect early fireworks. Take the first five innings over (10*). |
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04-16-22 | Braves v. Padres OVER 8.5 | 5-2 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and San Diego at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. Both lineups are set up favorably against the starting pitchers in this, the third game of the series between the Braves and Padres on Saturday afternoon. While Braves starter Ian Anderson struggled in his season debut, giving up five earned runs in 2 2/3 innings, Padres starter Nick Martinez actually fared well, giving up just a single earned run over five frames. Both bullpens have been shaky at best with the Braves relief corps posting a 4.21 ERA and 1.16 WHIP and the Padres 'pen recording a 5.17 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. We know the talent level up and down both lineups and off last night's relatively low-scoring affair (seven total runs), I'm expecting a different story to unfold on Saturday. Take the over (6*). |
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04-16-22 | Rays +1.5 v. White Sox | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay +1.5 runs over Chicago at 2:10 pm et on Saturday. We won with the Rays on the run-line last night but they still dropped their third game in a row. I look for them to give the White Sox all they can handle on Saturday afternoon as they look to finally end their skid. Note that the Rays are 18-6 when coming off four or five losses in their last six games going back to last season, outscoring opponents by 1.6 runs on average in that situation. They're also a profitable 30-22 as a road underdog over the last 2+ seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.5 runs. Both pitching staffs are relatively even heading into this contest - starters and bullpen - and I'll gladly grab the insurance run with the Rays here. Take Tampa Bay +1.5 runs (4*). |
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04-15-22 | Angels v. Rangers +1.5 | 9-6 | Loss | -155 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on Texas +1.5 runs over Los Angeles at 8:05 pm et on Friday. It's been the 'same old Angels' for the most part so far this season with Mike Trout brilliant as usual but the rest of the team lagging considerably behind. We won with the Rangers on the run-line last night and I won't hesitate to go right back to the well with the same play here. The starting pitching matchup is virtually a wash in this one but I'll give the hitting edge to the Rangers here at Globe Life Field, not to mention the slight bullpen advantage with the Halos' relief corps having posted a collective 6.30 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in 30 innings of work so far this season. As I noted yesterday, the Angels have struggled as a small favorite in recent years, now 28-40 when priced at -150 or lower over the last 2+ seasons, outscored by 0.6 runs on average along the way. Take Texas +1.5 runs (3*). |
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04-15-22 | Rays +1.5 v. White Sox | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay +1.5 runs over Chicago at 7:10 pm et on Friday. In a game where I expect runs to come at a premium, I'll back the Rays with the insurance run as they look to bounce back from an awful home series against the Rays. The White Sox sputtered in the finale of their three-game set against the Mariners, dropping a 5-1 decision yesterday afternoon. It's been a case of feast-or-famine for the White Sox offense in the early going this season and I expect them to have their hands full with the Rays pitching staff led by starter Drew Rasmussen on Friday. Rasmussen didn't have his best stuff in his season debut but he still managed to give up only two earned runs over four innings in a victory over the Orioles. He's catching the White Sox offense at the right time in unfriendly early season hitting conditions at Guaranteed Rate Field on Friday. Note that the Rays bullpen, while overworked in the early going this season, has held up well, posting a 3.76 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 40 2/3 innings. Take Tampa Bay +1.5 runs (3*). |
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04-15-22 | Rays v. White Sox UNDER 8 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 2 m | Show |
A.L. Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Tampa Bay and Chicago at 7:10 pm et on Friday. The White Sox could muster only one run in yesterday's wind-swept 5-1 loss against Seattle and that came only thanks to those blustery winds that led to a couple of Mariners' fielding gaffes. Here, I'm anticipating another relatively low-scoring affair as the Rays roll into the Windy City to face the White Sox on Friday. Both of tonight's starters were effective in their season debuts with Drew Rasmussen working four innings in a 5-3 Rays win over Baltimore and Dylan Cease tossing five frames in a 5-2 White Sox victory over Detroit. I expect more of the same here, perhaps with the two bullpens - which have both been solid in the early going - doing some heavy lifting. The Tampa Bay 'pen has posted a 3.76 ERA and 1.13 WHIP through a whopping 40 2/3 innings so far this season while the White Sox relief corps has recorded a 3.14 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in 28 2/3 innings. On another rather unfriendly hitting night at Guaranteed Rate Field, I expect runs to come at a premium. Take the under (10*). |
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04-15-22 | A's v. Blue Jays OVER 9.5 | 1-4 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first five innings 'over' between Oakland and Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Friday. We'll back the 'over' in the first five innings only in this one as we look to avoid the two bullpens, which have been effective in the early going this season. We have a low-rate starting pitching matchup here with Daulton Jefferies making just his fourth big league start against back of the rotation veteran Ross Stripling. With the two offenses coming in hot I'm confident both can produce in the early going in this one. While it's still very early, I do think the betting markets were a little lower than they should have been on the A's coming out of the gate. Of course, consecutive losses to open the campaign only bolstered that notion. Since then, the A's have gone 4-1, scoring 6+ runs in three of those five contests. Meanwhile, the Jays are coming off a tough series in the Bronx, in unfriendly early season hitting conditions. They'll be more than happy to return to the hitter-friendly confines of the Rogers Centre, where they put up 20 runs in a three-game series against the Rangers last weekend. Take the first five innings over (6*). |
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04-15-22 | Nationals v. Pirates OVER 9 | 7-2 | Push | 0 | 7 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first five innings 'over' between Washington and Pittsburgh at 6:35 pm et on Friday. We won with this same play last night and I won't hesitate to go right back to the well on Friday. The Nats put up three first inning runs but could only muster one additional run the rest of the way in last night's 9-4 loss. The Pirates are hitting well right now having scored 15 runs over their last two games and they catch another favorable matchup against Nationals starter Erick Fedde on Friday. Of course, Washington is also well-positioned to do some damage against Buccos starter Mitch Keller, who is in line for a bounce-back season but certainly didn't show signs of any sort of turn-around in his season debut, allowing four earned runs over just four innings against the Cardinals. The Nats have hit .273 as a team and averaged 5.5 runs per game in their first four road games this season. Also note that the 'over' is now 27-11 when Washington plays on the road with the total set at 9.0 or 9.5 over the last 2+ seasons, as is the case here. By playing the first five innings only, we look to avoid a Pirates bullpen that has been lights out in the early going this season, posting a 2.96 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. Take the first five innings over (4*). |
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04-15-22 | Twins v. Red Sox OVER 10 | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Boston at 2:10 pm et on Friday. The Red Sox offense was held down for the most part through the first four games this season but you can only hold them down for so long and the Tigers found that out over the last couple of games as Boston produced 14 runs in securing consecutive victories. Here, with favorable hitting conditions at Fenway Park, I'm expecting plenty of offense from both teams. The Twins could manage only two runs in a brief two-game Interleague series against the Dodgers earlier this week. Like the Red Sox, they have an explosive lineup and I'm confident we'll see them bounce back here. Note that the 'over' has gone 46-27 with Minnesota coming off four or five losses in its last six games going back to last season, resulting in an average total of 10.3 runs in that spot. Better still, the 'over' is 11-2 with the Twins playing on the road after scoring three runs or less in consecutive games over the same time frame, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 12.9 runs. There's nothing special about today's pitching matchup with Joe Ryan and Nick Pivetta getting their second turns in the rotation this season. Both struggled in their season debuts. We've also seen the Twins bullpen have a tough time, posting a 3.95 ERA and 1.65 WHIP through 27 1/3 innings this season. The Red Sox bullpen showed some warts in its most recent game after cruising early on. Take the over (6*). |
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04-15-22 | Twins v. Red Sox -122 | 8-4 | Loss | -122 | 5 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston over Minnesota at 2:10 pm et on Friday. The betting markets seem to be giving a lot of respect for the Twins in the early going this season - a little too much in my opinion. Minnesota has dropped four of its first six games overall and now heads to Boston to face a suddenly hot Red Sox offense that just put up 14 runs in bouncing back from a series-opening loss in Detroit to deliver consecutive wins over the Tigers. The Red Sox bats are well-positioned to stay hot in friendly hitting conditions on a breezy Friday afternoon at Fenway Park. There's little to choose between the two starting pitchers today. Both struggled in their season debuts and I'm not convinced either bounces back with a big performance here. With that being said, the Sox have had the clear edge in terms of their bullpen in the early going this season. Boston's relief corps has posted a collective 2.84 ERA and 1.14 WHIP through 25 1/3 innings of work. Meanwhile, the Twins 'pen has recorded a 3.95 ERA and 1.65 WHIP in 27 1/3 innings, blowing a save along the way. Take Boston (4*). |
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04-14-22 | Angels v. Rangers +1.5 | 5-10 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on Texas +1.5 runs over Los Angeles at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. I think there's a bit of a 'Shohei-effect' at play here as the Angels open a four-game series in Texas on Thursday. Ohtani pitched well but lasted only 4 2/3 innings in his season debut. Interestingly, we've seen the Angels outscored by an average of 0.8 runs in his 12 starts against A.L. West opponents going back to last season. While Los Angeles enters this game off consecutive wins, it has topped out at six runs through six games this season, going 2-4 when factoring in the -1.5 run-line. Here, the Angels will face the Rangers as a road favorite, noting that they've gone just 28-39 when checking in as a favorite of -150 or less over the last 2+ seasons, outscored by an average margin of 0.5 runs in that situation. Bettors are down on the Rangers after they dropped a series in Toronto and then proceeded to get swept in a brief two-game set at home against the Rockies. I look for a strong performance from starter Dane Dunning here, however. He struggled in his season debut but those are precisely the type of starters (with a proven track record) that we like to back in their second outing. While the Rangers bullpen hasn't been great, it has posted a 4.12 ERA and 1.13 WHIP, which is considerably better than that of the Angels relief corps, which checks in sporting a 6.31 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. Take Texas +1.5 runs (5*). |
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04-14-22 | Nationals v. Pirates OVER 9 | 4-9 | Win | 100 | 8 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first five innings 'over' between Washington and Pittsburgh at 6:35 pm et on Thursday. The Pirates bats are hot off a big day at the plate against the Cubs yesterday. They've scored 6+ runs in two of their last three games and I'm confident they can find continued success early in this one as they go up against Nationals starter Joan Adon, who will be making just his third big league start. Despite recording 12 strikeouts in just 9 2/3 innings, Adon has allowed 10 hits and seven walks, not to mention six earned runs along the way. Washington scored 18 runs and hit .280 as a team in its three-game series in Atlanta. The Nats might be catching Pirates starter J.T. Brubaker at the right time as he was mediocre at best in the Spring and struggled mightily in his first regular season start, yielding four earned runs on four hits and three walks over just four innings against the Cardinals. By playing the first five innings only we'll look to avoid a Pirates bullpen that has been terrific in the early going, posting a collective 3.57 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in 22 2/3 innings of work. Take the first five innings over (6*). |
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04-14-22 | Mariners -105 v. White Sox | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 1 m | Show |
A.L. Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Seattle over Chicago at 2:10 pm et on Thursday. The Mariners have dropped the first two games in this series. In fact, they've lost four games in a row since opening the season with consecutive victories. I like the way they're set up to get back in the win column on Thursday, however, as they wrap up their three-game series in Chicago. Logan Gilbert will get the call for the M's. He pitched well in his season debut, allowing just one earned run over five innings, essentially picking up right where he left off at the end of last season. Gilbert had a brief outing here in Chicago last season, tossing two scoreless innings in a game the Mariners won 3-2. Behind Gilbert is a Seattle bullpen that has posted a collective 3.60 ERA and 0.95 WHIP this season. Jimmy Lambert will get his first start of the season for the White Sox. He made three starts down the stretch last year, pitching reasonably well (at first glance at least), allowing five earned runs in 11 2/3 innings. A closer look shows that he recorded a 43.9% hard-hit ball percentage and a 35.7% fly ball percentage - both considerably higher than MLB averages. After getting very limited work in Spring Training, I expect him to struggle against the Mariners lineup today. Here, we'll note that the Mariners are 11-5 after losing four of their last five games going back to last season, outscoring opponents by 1.3 runs on average in that spot. Meanwhile, the White Sox are a long-term 46-60 when playing at home off consecutive wins by two runs or less, as is the case here, allowing 5.1 runs per game and outscored by 0.7 runs on average in that situation. Take Seattle (10*). |
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04-13-22 | Cubs v. Pirates +1.5 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 2 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on Pittsburgh +1.5 runs over Chicago at 12:35 pm et on Wednesday. I don't think there's as much separating these two teams as their early records would indicate. Chicago has won three of its first four games, including last night's 2-1 decision, while Pittsburgh has dropped three of its first four contests. Today's pitching matchup couldn't be any more of a 'wash' with Kyle Hendricks going for the Cubs and Zach Thompson finally making his first start for the Pirates (he was in line to start on Monday before the rain-out in St. Louis). It's been pretty much 'even Steven' as far as the bullpens go so far this season as well with the Cubs posting a 4.59 ERA and 1.02 WHIP and the Buccos 'pen checking in with a 4.58 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. We've seen eight matchups between these two teams going back to the start of last September. The Cubs won just two of those games by more than a single run. Going back further, the Pirates are 21-8 in the last 29 meetings when factoring in the +1.5 run-line. Take Pittsburgh +1.5 runs (4*). |
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04-12-22 | Rockies v. Rangers OVER 10 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
Interleague Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Colorado and Texas at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. Somewhat surprisingly, the Rockies have seen just one of their first four games go 'over' the total this season. With that being said, after their first two contests reached just eight and five total runs, their last two have gotten to 13 and 10. Yesterday's series-opener here in Texas probably should have gone 'over' the total in extras were it not for a controversial call to end the game. Regardless, I'm anticipating a high-scoring affair on Tuesday. The Rockies brought tonight's starting pitcher, Chad Kuhl, over from Pittsburgh in the offseason. He wasn't great with the Pirates and certainly didn't look good in two Spring Training starts with the Rockies, allowing 12 hits and eight earned runs while recording a 4:4 strikeout-to-walk ratio in just 5 1/3 innings. We know how explosive the Rangers offense can be as we've already seen them score 8+ runs in two of four games this season. The Rangers will hand the ball to veteran Martin Perez. He was relegated to bullpen duty after struggling as a starter with the Red Sox last season. He'll have his hands full in his first start back with the Rangers (where he started his career) as the Rockies check in hitting .307 as a team and averaging 7.5 runs per game in two previous games against left-handed starting pitching this season. With Perez an unlikely candidate to work deep into this game, that opens the door for a struggling Rangers bullpen that has posted a collective 4.74 ERA and 1.32 WHIP, having allowed four home runs in just 19 innings so far this season. Take the over (10*). |
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04-12-22 | Marlins +1.5 v. Angels | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami +1.5 runs over Los Angeles at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. With the starting pitching matchup virtually a wash and the Marlins looking to salvage one game from this quick two-game set in Anaheim, I'll back Miami with an insurance run on Tuesday. Note that the Marlins check in 45-38 after losing two of their last three games over the last 2+ seasons, outscoring opponents by 0.1 runs on average in that spot. Better still, they're 20-11 after scoring three runs or less in three consecutive games going back to the start of last season, outscoring the opposition by 1.1 runs on average along the way. On the flip side, the Angels are just 11-20 when coming off a win by 4+ runs going back to last season, as is the case here off last night's 6-2 victory, outscored by 1.4 runs on average in that spot. While it's still very early, the Marlins bullpen has been solid, posting a 3.00 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in 15 innings while the Los Angeles 'pen has recorded a 6.97 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 20 2/3 innings. Take Miami +1.5 runs (6*). |
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04-11-22 | Brewers -150 v. Orioles | 0-2 | Loss | -150 | 3 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Milwaukee over Baltimore at 3:05 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams are coming off losing opening series' against division opponents. In the case of the Brewers that was a surprise as they were favored in all three games against the Cubs in Chicago. On a positive note they did manage to salvage the series finale on Sunday and now I look for them to build some positive momentum, noting that they're an impressive 33-13 when playing on the road off a win going back to last season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 2.2 runs in that situation. The Orioles were not surprisingly swept in a three-game series against the Rays in St. Petersburg. They check in a woeful 11-30 in their last 41 home games after getting swept in a three-game series against a division opponent, outscored by 1.9 runs on average in that spot. Worse still, they're 13-42 when coming off three or more consecutive losses going back to last season, outscored by an average margin of 2.6 runs in that situation. Take Milwaukee (5*). |
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04-10-22 | Padres v. Diamondbacks OVER 9 | 10-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between San Diego and Arizona at 4:10 pm et on Sunday. We missed with the 'over' in this matchup last night as the Padres won by a 5-2 score, staying 'under' the total by a couple of runs. We're actually dealing with a lower posted total on Sunday (at the time of writing) and I believe it will prove too low. Blake Snell made just two Spring Training starts for San Diego. In one of those outings he struggled with his command, issuing four walks in just 1 1/3 innings. In the other he gave up five hits and three earned runs over four innings of work. The D'Backs bats have been quiet in this series so far but I do think the potential is there for them to bust out on Sunday. The Padres lineup is of course loaded and we saw flashes of that last night, particularly in the latter stages of the game. Caleb Smith gets the nod for Arizona, having labored through his only two full big league seasons, posting a 4.52 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 2019 with the Marlins and a 4.83 ERA and 1.37 WHIP with the Snakes last season. He recorded a 4.0% home run rate and a 12.6% walk rate last season, both well north of MLB averages. His 35.6% fly ball rate last season was also considerably higher than the MLB average and certainly doesn't suit him well pitching at hitter-friendly Chase Field. Take the over (6*). |
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04-09-22 | Padres v. Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between San Diego and Arizona at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. The bats have been quiet through the first two games of this series but I look for a different story to unfold on Saturday. Note that the 'over' is 21-7 with the D'Backs coming off consecutive 'under' results over the last season plus, resulting in an average total of 10.7 runs. Better still, the 'over' is a long-term 26-9 with Arizona playing at home off a shutout loss against a division opponent, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 11.5 runs in that spot. The Padres check in averaging 5.1 runs per game as a road favorite over the last 2+ seasons (69-game sample size). Unfortunately for the D'Backs, they've allowed an ugly 6.2 runs per game after scoring one run or less in their most recent game going back to last season (30-game sample size), which is also the case here. While Joe Musgrove and Zach Davies are serviceable, nothing about either starter really jumps off the page. Expect plenty of offense in this one. Take the over (6*). |
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04-08-22 | Astros v. Angels OVER 9.5 | Top | 13-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
A.L. Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Los Angeles at 9:35 pm et on Friday. We saw a low-scoring result in the opener of this series last night but I look for a different story to unfold on Friday. Note that the 'over' has gone 23-10 with the Astros coming off a game in which they allowed one run or less going back to last season, as is the case here, with that spot producing an average total of 10.2 runs. The 'over' is also 17-7 in Houston's last 24 games as a road underdog, leading to an average total of 10.6 runs in that situation. There's nothing special about tonight's starting pitching matchup as the Astros send veteran Jake Odorizzi to the hill against Reid Detmers of the Angels. Odorizzi's strikeout rate was down while his home run rate was up last year compared to his previous two full seasons in 2018 and 2019 (he pitched only 13 2/3 innings in a Covid-shortened 2020 campaign). While Detmers has proven to be an excellent strikeout pitcher at the minor league level, he's yet to prove it in the bigs, posting an ERA north of seven in limited work (around 20 innings) last season. He did pitch well in one start against Houston last year, but I look for the Astros to fare better in their second look at the left-hander. Take the over (10*). |
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04-08-22 | Mariners v. Twins OVER 8 | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and Minnesota at 4:10 pm et on Friday. I like the upside potential of both of these offenses heading into the new season and while we do have a tricky Opening Day starting pitching matchup to deal with, I believe the posted total will prove too low on Friday afternoon. Robbie Ray comes over to the Mariners from the Blue Jays following an incredible 2021 campaign. While Ray posted terrific numbers last season a closer look does indicate at least some reason for concern. He's certainly in line for some regression after posting the second highest strikeout rate over the course of his entire career. When opposing hitters did make contact, they hit Ray hard, as he posted a 43.3% hard-hit ball percentage - nearly 5% higher than the MLB average. That's not to mention a 29.4% fly ball percentage - exactly 5% north of the MLB average. I'm high on the Twins offense and do expect them to get to Ray on Friday. Twins starter Joe Ryan saw only limited big league action last season. With that being said, he did record an ugly 43.1% fly ball percentage and 4% home run rate in 26 2/3 innings - both well north of the MLB averages. Here, we'll note that the 'over' has gone 31-17 with the Mariners playing on the road with a posted total between 7.0 and 8.5 runs going back to last season with that spot producing an average total of 9.6 runs. For their part, the Twins have posted a 37-21 o/u mark in all games where the total closed between 7.0 and 8.5 going back to the start of last season, good for an average total of 9.7 runs scored in that situation. Take the over (7*). |
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04-08-22 | Red Sox +1.5 v. Yankees | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 3 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston +1.5 runs over New York at 1:05 pm et on Friday. I'll take a shot with the Red Sox plus the insurance run as they get their season started a day later than expected at Yankee Stadium on Friday. Here, we'll note that the Red Sox check in 50-31 in their last 81 road games against right-handed starters, averaging 5.1 runs per game and outscoring opponents by 0.6 runs on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Yankees went just 5-8 with ace Gerrit Cole starting as a favorite priced between -150 and -200 going back to last season, as is the case here, outscored by 0.3 runs on average in that spot. Worse still, the Yanks have won just three times in Cole's last 11 daytime outings, outscored by an average margin of 3.0 runs along the way. Take Boston +1.5 runs (6*). |
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04-07-22 | Padres v. Diamondbacks OVER 9 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 11 m | Show |
N.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between San Diego and Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Thursday. I really like the way this total sets up on Thursday night at Chase Field. The Padres lineup, even without Fernando Tatis Jr., is still absolutely loaded with run-scoring potential. Tonight they'll get the opportunity to tee off on veteran left-hander Madison Bumgarner. After a pair of shaky starts to open the Spring, MadBum settled down to toss five innings of shutout ball in his final outing. He of course was serviceable for the Snakes last season, logging 140+ innings while posting a respectable 1.18 WHIP. However, his line drive and fly ball percentages were well above the MLB average to go along with a career low 33% ground ball percentage. The Padres have favorable matchups against Bumgarner up and down their lineup in this one. Yu Darvish will counter for San Diego. His strikeout rate was down and walk rate and home run rate were both up last season. He pitched reasonably well in three Spring outings but now takes on what I consider to be a D'Backs lineup with lots of potential in a hitter-friendly park in Arizona to open the campaign. The Snakes have a number of hitters coming off impressive Spring showings and I look for some carry-over effect here. Finally, remember there are no more pitchers hitting to worry about in National League play this season. Take the over (10*). |
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11-02-21 | Braves +1.5 v. Astros | 7-0 | Win | 100 | 34 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta +1.5 runs over Houston at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. I love the way this spot sets up for the Braves with an insurance run in our back pocket as they hand the ball to Max Fried in hopes of making good in their second attempt at clinching a World Series title. Fried didn't pitch well in his first start in this series but I'm confident that he can bounce back strong here, noting that he still owns a terrific 3.65 ERA and 1.13 WHIP on the road this season and better still, a 3.49 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in nighttime starts. The Braves are a terrific 64-41 when coming off a loss going back to last season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.6 runs along the way. We haven't seen the Braves drop consecutive games since a four-game losing streak from September 14th to 18th. To find the last time they lost back-to-back games by two or more runs you would have to go all the way back to June 23rd and 24th. Atlanta wasn't quite able to break through against Astros starter Luis Garcia back in Game 3 of this series but it's not as if he was dominant. Garcia lasted only 3 2/3 innings, allowing three hits and four walks but only one earned run. While Sunday's game ended up lopsided in nature, I'm expecting tightly-contested baseball from here on out, making grabbing the insurance run attractive in Game 6. Take Atlanta +1.5 runs (5*). |
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10-31-21 | Astros -112 v. Braves | Top | 9-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
Sunday MLB Free play. My selection is on Houston over Atlanta at 8:15 pm et on Sunday. As much as Braves fans are hoping this is the night that they end their World Series drought, I believe they're going to have to wait at least one more game. While the Braves are likely to go with another bullpen game, the Astros will hand the ball to Framber Valdez as he looks to make amends for a poor performance earlier in the series. Interestingly, he's been better on the road than at home this season, posting a 2.70 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 12 away starts. In his lone previous playoff road start he allowed just one earned run over eight innings in Boston. Of course, each of the last two games in this series could have gone either way. No matter how you spin it, using six different pitchers in last night's game wasn't ideal for Atlanta. Keep in mind, the Braves used five different pitchers two nights ago as well. While the Astros have gone with an 'all hands on deck' sort of approach as well, they at least have a proven starter capable of working at least five or six innings on Sunday. Take Houston. |
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10-29-21 | Astros v. Braves OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
World Series Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Atlanta at 8:05 pm et on Friday. This hasn't been a particularly high-scoring series through two games but that's only served to afford us a reasonable total to work with as the scene shifts to Atlanta for Game 3 on Friday night. Note that the 'over' is 17-5 in Houston's last 22 games as a road underdog, resulting in an average total of 11.2 runs scored. In fact, you would have to go back to August 3rd to find the last time an Astros road game in which they were an underdog finished 'under' the total. Meanwhile, the 'over' has gone 14-4 the last 18 times the Braves have played at home off consecutive 'under' results (you have to go back four games to find their last 'over' result as Game 2 of this series settled on a 'push'), good for an average total of 10.4 runs in that spot. Astros starter Luis Garcia hasn't been nearly as effective on the road as at home this season, posting a 4.67 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. He's coming off his best start of the postseason as he tossed 5 2/3 innings of shutout ball against the Red Sox in the ALCS, but that was at home. Braves starter Ian Anderson hasn't worked more than five innings in any of his three previous starts in these playoffs. He's been good, but certainly not great and here we'll note that he has made three starts against American League opponents this season and hasn't fared well, recording a 4.91 ERA and 1.64 WHIP. Note that the Braves have given Anderson a whopping 6.7 runs per start of support here at home this season. The Astros bullpen has not been all that reliable on the road this season, posting a collective 4.48 ERA and 1.38 WHIP with only 19 saves converted compared to 17 blown. Meanwhile, the Braves 'pen has recorded a 4.02 ERA and 1.24 WHIP with 20 saves converted and 14 blown at home. Against American League foes, the Braves relief corps has posted an ugly 5.84 ERA and 1.48 WHIP with only three saves converted and six blown. Take the over (10*). |
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10-26-21 | Braves v. Astros OVER 8 | Top | 6-2 | Push | 0 | 34 h 7 m | Show |
MLB First Five Innings World Series Total of the Year. My selection is on the first five innings 'over' between Atlanta and Houston at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. NOTE: There's a discrepancy in first five innings totals being offered at a variety of books in advance of this one. I'm fine with playing the 'over' as high as 4.5 runs. Both of these teams closed out their respective LCS' with relatively low-scoring games but that hasn't been the norm during these playoffs. The Braves enter this series having seen the 'over' cash in four of their last five games. The Astros have seen the 'over' cash in eight of their last nine and 11 of their last 13 contests. Here, rather than play the full game 'over' the total we'll stick with the first five innings only. Charlie Morton gets the call for the Braves. The veteran right-hander's best start of the playoffs to date was his first, back in the NLDS against Milwaukee. In two starts since then he has allowed seven hits, seven walks and four earned runs in only 8 1/3 innings, striking out 10 along the way. Keep in mind, he struck out nine in his first start of the postseason. He didn't look confident in his command in his lone start against the Dodgers and now faces an even tougher opponent with the Astros entering this series hitting .287 as a team and averaging 6.6 runs per game over their last seven contests. Framber Valdez will counter for Houston. As we predicted in our play on the 'under' (which we lost thanks to a late explosion from the Astros offense) in his most recent start, Valdez matched up well against the Red Sox, and at Fenway Park in particular. Here, I'm not sure he'll be so fortunate. Note that Valdez owns a 1.48 WHIP in 13 home starts this season with nine of those going 'over' the total. In his two previous playoff starts here at home he was tagged for six earned runs on 13 hits in only seven innings of work. By playing the first five innings only we'll aim to avoid two bullpens that have been admittedly sharp. Between the two 'pens, we've seen just one blown save in these playoffs with the Braves relief corps having posted a 3.56 ERA and 1.23 WHIP and the Astros checking in with a 3.42 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. Take the first five innings over (10*). |
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10-21-21 | Braves v. Dodgers UNDER 8 | 2-11 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Los Angeles at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. Much like the ALCS, the 'over' has ruled the NLCS, cashing in each of the last three games. I look for that trend to reverse on Thursday, however, as the Braves send Max Fried to the hill in hopes of closing out this series. Fried has of course been outstanding this season, and particularly in the playoffs, recording a 1.50 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in two postseason starts. He has incredibly worked at least six innings in 14 consecutive starts, allowing more than two earned runs only twice over that stretch. Here, we'll note that the 'under' has gone a perfect 8-0 with Fried taking the hill as an underdog priced between +100 and +150, resulting in an average total of only 4.5 runs. Also note that the 'under' has gone 10-2 with the Braves playing on the road after putting up nine runs or more in their previous contest, with an average total of just 5.5 runs scored. The Dodgers have yet to decide on a starter but we do know this is likely to be a 'bullpen game' for them. Despite trailing in this series, the Dodgers 'pen has held up well recently, recording a collective 3.03 ERA and 0.95 WHIP over their last seven games. Take the under (5*). |
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10-20-21 | Astros +1.5 v. Red Sox | 9-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston +1.5 runs over Boston at 5:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Astros stunned the Red Sox with a seven-run ninth inning last night - ruining our 'under' ticket in the process - and I look for them to build off of that victory on Wednesday. With struggling veteran Chris Sale taking the ball for Boston, I believe the case can be made that the wrong team is favored in this game. Sale has made two starts in the playoffs. In his first he gave up five earned runs in just an inning of work against the Rays. Earlier in this series against the Astros he lasted only 2 1/3 innings, allowing five hits and a walk while striking out only two in an eventual 5-4 loss. Astros starter Framber Valdez hasn't pitched particularly well in the postseason either but he's faced the Red Sox three times this season and Houston won all three games, including a 7-1 victory in his lone previous start here at Fenway Park (he worked into the eighth inning and allowed just one earned run in that outing). Here, I'll note that the Red Sox are just 33-42 when playing at home after winning two of their last three games over the last three seasons, as is the case here. They're a mediocre 65-66 after winning four or five of their last six games over the last three seasons - also the case here - not holding a scoring edge whatsoever in that situation. Finally, I'll point out that the Red Sox bullpen has taken a real sour turn, having blown four saves without converting a single one over their last seven games. Take Houston +1.5 runs (5*). |
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10-19-21 | Astros v. Red Sox UNDER 10 | 9-2 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Boston at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the 'over' in last night's Game 3 matchup - in fact, we've won with the 'over' twice already in this series. With each of the last five meetings between these two teams going 'over' the total and both teams entering on six-game 'over' streaks, it's no surprise that we're working with a double-digit total tonight. I believe it will prove too high. Note that the 'under' has gone 19-8 with the Astros playing on the road after losing two of their last three games this season, as is the case here, producing an average total of 8.2 runs. Houston is averaging just 4.0 runs with an average total of 8.2 runs in 27 previous situations where it was coming off a loss by four runs or more this season. The presence of struggling veteran Zack Greinke for the Astros is of course a concern. One thing he doesn't lack at this stage of his career is command, and it's worth noting that he has posted a better-than-MLB average hard-hit ball percentage and exit velocity off opposing bats this season. Nick Pivetta stepped into a pressure-packed situation against the Rays in the ALDS and tossed four shutout innings in his most recent appearance for the Red Sox. His overall numbers aren't great this season but I do think he can keep the Astros bats at bay in this one as Houston faces a lot of pressure down 2-1 in this series. Take the under (6*). |
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10-18-21 | Astros v. Red Sox OVER 9 | Top | 3-12 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
ALCS Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Boston at 8:05 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams enter Game 3 of the ALCS riding five-game 'over' streaks and I don't believe those streaks are in jeopardy of ending here. Jose Uquidy will get his first start of the postseason for the Astros. While his overall numbers this season are solid, here he runs into a red hot Red Sox lineup, noting that he hasn't really been fooling anyone, topping out at six strikeouts in his last nine starts. I'll also point out that the 'over' has gone 12-4 when Urquidy starts with a posted total of between 8.5 and 10.0 runs, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 11.1 runs scored. Eduardo Rodriguez made two starts for the Red Sox in the ALDS but wasn't particularly sharp, allowing four earned runs in 6 2/3 innings of work. The Astros faced him twice during the regular season, plating 12 earned runs in just 9 1/3 innings. You would have to go back six home starts - all the way to August 15th - to find the last time Rodriguez was involved in a game at Fenway Park that didn't reach at least nine total runs. He never looked all that comfortable pitching at home this season, posting a 5.78 ERA and 1.37 WHIP while averaging just 4 2/3 innings per start. Neither bullpen is all that imposing. The Astros 'pen has converted just 19 saves while blowing 17 on the road this season. The Sox 'pen hasn't been much better at home, converting 21 saves while blowing 15. Note that the Boston relief corps has yet to convert a save in the playoffs while blowing three. Take the over (10*). |
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10-15-21 | Red Sox v. Astros OVER 8 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Houston at 8:05 pm et on Friday. We saw a classic pitching duel between the Dodgers and Giants last night but I expect nothing of the sort as the Red Sox and Astros open the ALCS on Friday. Chris Sale certainly isn't the same pitcher he once was and isn't likely to work deep into the game for Boston in the series-opener. He was chased after allowing five earned runs in just an inning of work against Tampa Bay last round. His 10 starts this season have totaled 18, 6, 14, 5, 21, 8, 17, 6, 12 and 20 runs...you get the picture. Astros starter Framber Valdez faced the Red Sox twice during the regular season with those two outings coming over a six-day stretch in early June. Boston wasn't hitting very well at all at that stage of the season. It's a different story now as it enters this series having scored 26 runs in its last three games. Valdez has made six starts since the beginning of September with those games totaling 12, 15, 10, 3, 14 and 13 runs. Note that the 'over' has gone 22-8 with the Astros coming off a game in which they allowed one run or less this season, producing an average total of 10.5 runs in that situation. Take the over (6*). |
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10-14-21 | Dodgers v. Giants OVER 6.5 | 2-1 | Loss | -125 | 33 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and San Francisco at 9:05 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'over' in Game 4 of this series on Tuesday and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play in Thursday's fifth-and-deciding game between these storied rivals. The last time the Giants sent Logan Webb to the hill was in the opener of this series. They could have scored a single run and won that game as Webb was outstanding, working into the eighth inning in an eventual 4-0 victory. Here, I expect the Dodgers to have an answer with Julio Urias on the mound. Note that the 'over' has gone 15-5 with Urias coming off a start in which he allowed one earned run or less over the last two seasons, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 10.3 runs. The 'over' has also gone a solid 22-9 with the Dodgers playing in a game where the total was set at 7.0 runs or less over the last three seasons, good for an average total of 8.4 runs scored. Meanwhile, the Giants have averaged 6.3 runs per game when Logan Webb comes off a start in which he gave up one earned run or less this season, resulting in an average total of 8.8 runs. Note also that the Dodgers are averaging 5.2 runs per game but also allowing 4.4 runs per game when playing on the road off a win by four runs or more over the last three seasons, as is the case here following Tuesday's 7-2 victory at Chavez Ravine. Finally I'll point out that both of Thursday's starters are riding career-long stretches of starts without allowing a single home run. We'll call for regression to the mean in that department here. Take the over (7*). |
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10-12-21 | Giants v. Dodgers OVER 7.5 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
NLDS Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between San Francisco and Los Angeles at 9:05 pm et on Tuesday. With the Giants coming off a 1-0 victory last night, pushing the Dodgers to the brink of elimination in the process, I like the way Game 4 sets up as a relatively high-scoring affair. Note that the 'over' has gone 15-4 with the Giants coming off an underdog win over a division opponent this season, as is the case here. That situation has produced an average total of 10.7 runs. The 'over' also checks 38-22 with San Francisco coming off a game in which it gave up one run or less over the last three seasons, leading to an average total of 10.5 runs. The Dodgers, meanwhile, check in averaging 5.9 runs per game when coming off a loss against a division opponent in a game in which they were favored this season. That situation has produced an average total of 9.9 runs. They also average 5.5 runs per game when playing at home after being involved in a game that saw both teams score three runs or less, good for an average total of 8.4 runs. Neither of tonight's starters are all that imposing. For San Francisco's part, it averages 5.5 runs per game after scoring two runs or less in consecutive games over the last three seasons, as is the case here as well. The Dodgers will be getting their seventh look at Anthony DeSclafani this season. They tagged him for 22 earned runs in 27 innings during the regular season. Meanwhile, the Dodgers have yet to announce their starter but we can assume it will be 'all hands on deck' in this elimination game. Take the over (10*). |
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10-10-21 | Rays +1.5 v. Red Sox | 4-6 | Loss | -200 | 10 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay +1.5 runs over Boston at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. This line isn't likely to last long as the Rays may very well flip to the favorite here on Sunday. While it's available, we'll take advantage, however (it should still be available as an alternate run-line regardless). Note that Red Sox starter Nathan Eovaldi has delivered wins in each of his last two starts, with both of those victories coming by two runs or more. He's only managed to post a three-game streak of that nature once this season, and that came in a stretch that saw him face the lowly Rangers and Indians (twice). Note that Boston is just 14-20 after winning four of its last five games this season, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 0.7 runs in that spot. The Rays have feasted in day games this season, going 41-20 and outscoring opponents by an average margin of 2.2 runs. They're also 52-26 against division opponents, outscoring the opposition by 1.7 runs on average. Take Tampa Bay +1.5 runs (4*). |
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10-10-21 | Rays v. Red Sox OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
ALDS Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Tampa Bay and Boston at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. We saw a whopping 20 runs scored in Game 2 of this series on Friday and I expect to see plenty of offense again in Game 3 on Sunday. Note that the 'over' has gone 23-13 with the Rays playing on the road against division opponents this season with those games averaging 11.3 total runs. Meanwhile, the 'over' has gone 16-5 after the Red Sox score 10 runs or more in a game over the last three seasons, leading to an average total of 11.5 runs scored. Drew Rasmussen will get the start for the Rays. He'll inexplicably be facing the Red Sox for the fourth time this season. While he's pitched well against them, you have to wonder if at some point Boston begins to figure him out. Note that he has posted an awful 50.7% hard-hit ball percentage and 91.2 mph exit velocity off opposing bats this season. With Rasmussen averaging just over four innings per start we should see plenty of a Rays bullpen that owns a collective 4.29 ERA and 1.28 WHIP on the road this season. Red Sox starter Nathan Eovaldi has arguably been the team's most reliable starter this season. However, here he'll be facing the Rays for the fifth time this season. Note that his previous four starts against them have totaled 11, 14, 28 and 3 runs. The Red Sox bullpen has recorded a collective 4.26 ERA and 1.38 WHIP at home this season. Take the over (10*). |
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10-08-21 | Braves +1.5 v. Brewers | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta +1.5 runs over Milwaukee at 4:35 pm et on Friday. I'll grab the insurance run with the Braves in this NLDS opener on Friday afternoon. Atlanta checks in a solid 29-15 over its last 44 road games, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 2.2 runs. Here, the Braves are also in a favorable situation that has gone 23-7 over the last two seasons as they revenge a loss against an opponent in which they scored one run or less, outscoring opponents by a whopping 3.4 runs on average in that spot. Braves starter Charlie Morton has faced the Brewers just once over the last five seasons, but that start came back in August as he allowed only two earned runs over six innings. Meanwhile, Brewers starter Corbin Burnes turned in an outstanding regular season but his lone start against Atlanta didn't go well at all as he was tagged for five earned runs and lasted only four innings. Interestingly, the Brewers bullpen has struggled in day games all season, recording a collective 5.04 ERA and 1.49 WHIP with only 20 saves converted compared to 16 blown. Take Atlanta +1.5 runs (5*). |
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10-06-21 | Cardinals +1.5 v. Dodgers | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
MLB Game of the Week. My selection is on St. Louis +1.5 runs over Los Angeles at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. This precise situation is essentially the reason the Dodgers brought in Max Scherzer prior to the trade deadline and I certainly understand why they're such a heavy favorite in this contest. But given how well the Cardinals played down the stretch I certainly don't expect to see them back down from the massive challenge at hand on Wednesday. While I won't call for the outright upset, I will back the Cards with an insurance run at a very reasonable price. Note that the Dodgers enter this game having won five consecutive contests by two runs or more. Their longest such streak this season was six games - a feat they accomplished only once, back in early April. Also consider that Los Angeles checks in 15-19 after posting consecutive wins by four runs or more over the last three seasons, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of just 0.4 runs in that situation. As for the Cards, they're a solid 13-6 when playing on the road off consecutive losses over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 1.7 runs on average in that spot. The Dodgers have won each of Max Scherzer's last five starts by two runs or more - the longest such streak of the season for Mad Max. His previous high was four straight team wins by two runs or more, which was followed up by a narrow 4-3 win over the Mets in his next start back on August 21st. Take St. Louis +1.5 runs (10*). |
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10-05-21 | Yankees v. Red Sox UNDER 8 | Top | 2-6 | Push | 0 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
MLB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Boston at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. Most will be anticipating a high-scoring affair between these two homer-happy rivals at hitter-friendly Fenway Park on Tuesday night. I don't see it playing out that way, however. Tonight's starters Gerrit Cole and Nathan Eovaldi actually just matched up on September 24th. That game finished 8-3 in favor of New York. The stakes are obviously even higher now with this being a 'win or go home' Wild Card showdown and I expect a more tightly-contested affair. Cole struggled down the stretch but this will be the first time he's had the benefit of pitching on a full five days' rest since September 14th against Baltimore. He gave up just one earned run in five innings in that start. Likewise for Eovaldi. He, however, pitched well in his most recent start, tossing six shutout innings against the Orioles. He checks in sporting a 1.11 WHIP in 19 home starts this season. It will obviously be 'all hands on deck' when it comes to the two bullpens following yesterday's off-day. In fact, both teams have had three off days since September 23rd, setting them up well for Tuesday's all-important contest. Take the under (10*). |
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10-02-21 | Indians v. Rangers +1.5 | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on Texas +1.5 runs over Cleveland at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. This one sets up well for the Rangers with the Indians coming in off consecutive wins. Note that Texas hasn't dropped consecutive games since a five-game losing streak from September 19th-23rd. The Indians check in a woeful 4-16 after scoring nine runs or more in a game this season, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 2.1 runs in that situation. Meanwhile, the Rangers are 9-2 when seeking revenge for consecutive losses against an opponent where that team scored eight runs or more over the last three seasons, which is also the case here, outscoring opponents by 1.6 runs on average in that spot. Indians starter Triston McKenzie had a nice run but he's struggled over his last couple of outings, allowing 10 earned runs in just 7 1/3 innings. Take Texas +1.5 runs (7*). |
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09-29-21 | Marlins v. Mets OVER 7.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
MLB F5 Innings Total of the Month. My selection is on the first five innings 'over' between Miami and New York at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a pair of relatively low-scoring seven-innings affairs between these two teams simply playing out the string yesterday. I expect a different story to unfold on Wednesday, at least early on. Elieser Hernandez gets another start for the Marlins. He was tagged for three home runs in his most recent start and a pair of home runs the last time he faced the Mets. I suspect we'll see him nibbling the edges a little too much in this one and perhaps struggle to avoid walks, which have plagued him recently (seven walks in his last two starts spanning just 9 2/3 innings). Hernandez checks in with a 1.81 WHIP over his last three outings. Taijuan Walker will take the ball for New York. The wheels have come off for him down the stretch. He checks in having allowed 19 earned runs over his last four starts, covering a stretch of 17 1/3 innings. Like Hernandez, Walker has had a tough time keeping the ball in the park, allowing a whopping eight home runs over his last four outings and at least one home run in 10 of his last 11 starts. We'll play the first five innings only here, noting that the Mets bullpen in particular has been terrific lately, entering yesterday's double-header sporting a collective 2.96 ERA and 1.17 WHIP over their last seven games. Take the first five innings over (10*). |
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09-28-21 | Marlins +1.5 v. Mets | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -160 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
N.L. Run-Line Game of the Month. My selection is on Miami +1.5 runs over New York at 4:10 pm et on Tuesday. Both of these teams are simply playing out the string at this point and both are playing poorly with each entering riding five-game losing streaks. Something obviously has to give in this one. I'll grab the insurance run with the Marlins as the spot sets up well for them in the front half of this seven-inning double-header. Note that Miami has gone an impressive 17-7 after scoring three runs or less in three consecutive games this season, as is the case here, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 2.0 runs in that spot. While the Marlins sit a whopping 27 games under .500 on the season, they've actually gone 32-31 after losing four or five of their last six games, outscoring opponents by 0.5 runs on average in that situation. As for the Mets, they're a woeful 1-9 when playing with double-revenge against an opponent having scored two runs or less in those losses, outscored by an average margin of 2.4 runs in that spot. Marcus Stroman will get the start for New York. Note that he owns a 2-7 team record the last nine times he's pitched as a home favorite priced between -150 and -200, as is the case here, with his teams outscored by 2.8 runs on average in that spot. Trevor Rogers will counter for Miami. He has posted a 2.60 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 13 road starts this season. While the Marlins are just 4-10 in his last 14 starts overall, they've gone 8-6 when factoring in the +1.5 run-line. Miami has won all three of Rogers' previous starts against the Mets, despite the fact that he was matched up against New York ace Jacob DeGrom twice. Stroman has faced the Marlins three times this season and the Mets failed to deliver a win by more than a single run in any of those contests. Take Miami +1.5 runs. |
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09-25-21 | Cardinals v. Cubs UNDER 10.5 | 8-5 | Loss | -112 | 5 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between St. Louis and Chicago at 2:20 pm et on Saturday. We saw a pair of wild, high-scoring games in yesterday's seven-inning double-header but I expect a different story to unfold on Wrigley Field on Saturday. Note that the 'under' is a perfect 14-0 when the Cardinals come off a game in which they scored 12 or more runs over the last three seasons with those games producing an average total of just 5.4 runs. St. Louis averages just 2.6 runs per game when coming off a win by eight runs over more over the last three seasons, with those games totaling an average of just 7.1 runs. As for the Cubs, they average only 3.8 runs per game when playing at home with double-revenge this season, as is the case here. Jon Lester has arguably been the Cards most consistent starter lately, checking in with a 2.84 ERA and 0.84 WHIP over his last three starts. For his part, Cubs starter Adrian Sampson has posted a respectable 3.21 ERA and 1.29 WHIP over his last three outings. The Cards bullpen continues to pitch well, recording a collective 1.12 WHIP over their last seven games. While the Cubs 'pen has struggled for the most part this season, it has managed to post a 4.10 ERA and 1.29 WHIP with 19 saves converted and only six blown at home. Take the under (7*). |
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09-24-21 | Mariners v. Angels +1.5 | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles +1.5 runs over Seattle at 9:35 pm et on Friday. The Mariners are rolling right now, having won five consecutive games to claw back into the A.L. Wild Card hunt, currently sitting two games back of the New York Yankees, who hold down the second spot. Interestingly, this is the first time all season that Seattle checks in having won four of its last five games by multiple runs. I don't expect it to continue tonight in Anaheim. The Angels snapped a six-game losing streak with a 3-2 win over the Astros yesterday. Note that they're 12-6 after losing six or seven of their last eight games this season, as is the case here. While the Mariners do check in six games over .500 on the road this season, they've actually been outscored by an average margin of 0.4 runs in those games. They've been outscored by 0.5 runs on average after winning four or five of their last six games this season. Over the last three seasons, Seattle has been outscored by an average margin of 0.6 runs, allowing 6.2 runs per game in the process, after posting four or more consecutive victories. The Mariners are 14-8 when rookie starter Logan Gilbert takes the ball this season. However, when factoring in the -1.5 run-line, they've gone just 6-16. Meanwhile, Angels starter Jose Suarez hasn't posted great overall numbers this season but there's reason for confidence backing him here, noting that he has worked at least into the sixth inning in three consecutive starts and sports a 2.21 ERA and 0.93 WHIP over his last three outings. Los Angeles has won three of his last four starts overall, outscoring the opposition by a combined 19-8 margin in those games. It has also won three of his four career starts against the Mariners, including a 7-1 victory in his lone previous start against them this season. All told, the Halos have outscored the M's by a combined margin of 29-16 in Suarez's four career outings against them. Take Los Angeles +1.5 runs (6*). |
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09-22-21 | Mariners v. A's OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
MLB Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and Oakland at 9:40 pm et on Wednesday. We've seen consecutive relatively low-scoring affairs to open this series. In fact, you would have to go back to September 15th to find the last time either of these teams posted an 'over' result. Look for that to change on Wednesday. The 'over' is a perfect 8-0 when the Mariners play on the road after winning three or more games in a row over the last two seasons with that spot producing an average total of 13.2 runs. Meanwhile, the 'over' is also a perfect 8-0 when the A's come off consecutive losses at home against division opponents this season, good for an average total of 12.1 runs. The A's average 5.6 runs per game when coming off four straight games scoring four runs or less over the last two seasons, as is the case here. Neither starter is likely to fool the opposition here given the A's have seen Chris Flexen three times this season while the Mariners have also seen Cole Irvin three times here in 2021. Irvin in particular has struggled, allowing a whopping 22 hits in just 11 2/3 innings. Flexen has seemingly hit the wall lately, topping out at four strikeouts over his last four outings, allowing 24 hits and 11 earned runs in 22 1/3 innings. Additionally, the Mariners bullpen has posted a collective 6.37 ERA and 1.63 WHIP over the last seven games. Take the over (10*). |
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Sean Murphy MLB Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-10-22 | Red Sox +1.5 v. Braves | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 32 m | Show | |
05-09-22 | Phillies v. Mariners -115 | 9-0 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 13 m | Show | |
05-09-22 | Marlins v. Diamondbacks OVER 8.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 57 m | Show | |
05-09-22 | Phillies v. Mariners OVER 7.5 | 9-0 | Win | 100 | 13 h 37 m | Show | |
05-09-22 | Rays v. Angels OVER 7.5 | 3-11 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show | |
05-09-22 | Royals +1.5 v. Orioles | 1-6 | Loss | -180 | 3 h 51 m | Show | |
05-08-22 | White Sox v. Red Sox -145 | 3-2 | Loss | -145 | 2 h 6 m | Show | |
05-07-22 | Brewers v. Braves +1.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 9 m | Show | |
05-07-22 | Blue Jays v. Guardians UNDER 6.5 | Top | 8-3 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 36 m | Show |
05-06-22 | Cardinals v. Giants OVER 7 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
05-06-22 | Rays v. Mariners -124 | 8-7 | Loss | -124 | 10 h 38 m | Show | |
05-06-22 | White Sox v. Red Sox -160 | 4-2 | Loss | -160 | 7 h 14 m | Show | |
05-05-22 | Rays v. Mariners +1.5 | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 55 m | Show | |
05-05-22 | Mets v. Phillies -158 | 8-7 | Loss | -158 | 8 h 18 m | Show | |
05-05-22 | Nationals v. Rockies -135 | 7-9 | Win | 100 | 7 h 10 m | Show | |
05-04-22 | Nationals v. Rockies -138 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 34 m | Show | |
05-04-22 | Rangers v. Phillies -160 | 2-1 | Loss | -160 | 11 h 4 m | Show | |
05-04-22 | Diamondbacks v. Marlins -143 | 8-7 | Loss | -143 | 6 h 5 m | Show | |
05-03-22 | Rays v. A's +116 | 10-7 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 4 m | Show | |
05-03-22 | Nationals v. Rockies -148 | 10-2 | Loss | -148 | 13 h 28 m | Show | |
05-03-22 | Rangers v. Phillies -155 | 6-4 | Loss | -155 | 11 h 20 m | Show | |
05-03-22 | Diamondbacks v. Marlins -155 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -155 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
05-02-22 | Mariners v. Astros -129 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 44 m | Show | |
05-02-22 | Twins v. Orioles OVER 7.5 | 2-1 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 38 m | Show | |
05-02-22 | Twins -140 v. Orioles | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
05-01-22 | Tigers v. Dodgers -240 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 40 m | Show | |
05-01-22 | Nationals v. Giants OVER 7.5 | 11-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 5 m | Show | |
05-01-22 | Mariners v. Marlins UNDER 7 | 7-3 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 25 m | Show | |
05-01-22 | Twins v. Rays -145 | 9-3 | Loss | -145 | 3 h 28 m | Show | |
04-30-22 | Diamondbacks v. Cardinals -150 | 2-0 | Loss | -150 | 6 h 59 m | Show | |
04-29-22 | Padres v. Pirates OVER 7 | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
04-28-22 | Diamondbacks v. Cardinals -165 | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show | |
04-28-22 | Guardians +1.5 v. Angels | 1-4 | Loss | -140 | 9 h 39 m | Show | |
04-27-22 | Guardians +1.5 v. Angels | 5-9 | Loss | -120 | 13 h 48 m | Show | |
04-27-22 | Mariners v. Rays -134 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 47 m | Show | |
04-26-22 | Guardians v. Angels OVER 8 | 1-4 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 23 m | Show | |
04-26-22 | Mets v. Cardinals +106 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
04-26-22 | Marlins v. Nationals +1.5 | 5-2 | Loss | -147 | 11 h 29 m | Show | |
04-25-22 | Rockies v. Phillies -182 | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 7 h 1 m | Show | |
04-24-22 | Blue Jays v. Astros -126 | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 6 h 10 m | Show | |
04-24-22 | Marlins v. Braves -123 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -123 | 6 h 45 m | Show |
04-23-22 | Red Sox v. Rays -110 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
04-22-22 | Rangers v. A's OVER 7.5 | 8-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show | |
04-22-22 | Royals v. Mariners UNDER 8 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 46 m | Show | |
04-22-22 | Orioles v. Angels -170 | 5-3 | Loss | -170 | 12 h 52 m | Show | |
04-22-22 | Guardians +1.5 v. Yankees | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
04-21-22 | Rangers v. Mariners UNDER 8 | Top | 8-6 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 9 m | Show |
04-21-22 | Twins -113 v. Royals | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 6 h 20 m | Show | |
04-21-22 | Giants v. Mets UNDER 7.5 | 2-6 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 30 m | Show | |
04-20-22 | Twins v. Royals OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -125 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
04-20-22 | Yankees v. Tigers +1.5 | 5-3 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 41 m | Show | |
04-20-22 | Braves v. Dodgers UNDER 8.5 | 1-5 | Win | 105 | 7 h 31 m | Show | |
04-19-22 | Cardinals v. Marlins UNDER 8 | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
04-18-22 | Pirates v. Brewers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
04-17-22 | Angels v. Rangers +1.5 | Top | 8-3 | Loss | -150 | 7 h 38 m | Show |
04-16-22 | Cardinals v. Brewers OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
04-16-22 | Braves v. Padres OVER 8.5 | 5-2 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 42 m | Show | |
04-16-22 | Rays +1.5 v. White Sox | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 38 m | Show | |
04-15-22 | Angels v. Rangers +1.5 | 9-6 | Loss | -155 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
04-15-22 | Rays +1.5 v. White Sox | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
04-15-22 | Rays v. White Sox UNDER 8 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 2 m | Show |
04-15-22 | A's v. Blue Jays OVER 9.5 | 1-4 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 10 m | Show | |
04-15-22 | Nationals v. Pirates OVER 9 | 7-2 | Push | 0 | 7 h 23 m | Show | |
04-15-22 | Twins v. Red Sox OVER 10 | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 41 m | Show | |
04-15-22 | Twins v. Red Sox -122 | 8-4 | Loss | -122 | 5 h 28 m | Show | |
04-14-22 | Angels v. Rangers +1.5 | 5-10 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show | |
04-14-22 | Nationals v. Pirates OVER 9 | 4-9 | Win | 100 | 8 h 32 m | Show | |
04-14-22 | Mariners -105 v. White Sox | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 1 m | Show |
04-13-22 | Cubs v. Pirates +1.5 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 2 h 4 m | Show | |
04-12-22 | Rockies v. Rangers OVER 10 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
04-12-22 | Marlins +1.5 v. Angels | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
04-11-22 | Brewers -150 v. Orioles | 0-2 | Loss | -150 | 3 h 29 m | Show | |
04-10-22 | Padres v. Diamondbacks OVER 9 | 10-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 0 m | Show | |
04-09-22 | Padres v. Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
04-08-22 | Astros v. Angels OVER 9.5 | Top | 13-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
04-08-22 | Mariners v. Twins OVER 8 | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 14 m | Show | |
04-08-22 | Red Sox +1.5 v. Yankees | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 3 h 23 m | Show | |
04-07-22 | Padres v. Diamondbacks OVER 9 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 11 m | Show |
11-02-21 | Braves +1.5 v. Astros | 7-0 | Win | 100 | 34 h 20 m | Show | |
10-31-21 | Astros -112 v. Braves | Top | 9-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
10-29-21 | Astros v. Braves OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
10-26-21 | Braves v. Astros OVER 8 | Top | 6-2 | Push | 0 | 34 h 7 m | Show |
10-21-21 | Braves v. Dodgers UNDER 8 | 2-11 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 55 m | Show | |
10-20-21 | Astros +1.5 v. Red Sox | 9-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
10-19-21 | Astros v. Red Sox UNDER 10 | 9-2 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 28 m | Show | |
10-18-21 | Astros v. Red Sox OVER 9 | Top | 3-12 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
10-15-21 | Red Sox v. Astros OVER 8 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show | |
10-14-21 | Dodgers v. Giants OVER 6.5 | 2-1 | Loss | -125 | 33 h 38 m | Show | |
10-12-21 | Giants v. Dodgers OVER 7.5 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
10-10-21 | Rays +1.5 v. Red Sox | 4-6 | Loss | -200 | 10 h 39 m | Show | |
10-10-21 | Rays v. Red Sox OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
10-08-21 | Braves +1.5 v. Brewers | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 14 m | Show | |
10-06-21 | Cardinals +1.5 v. Dodgers | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
10-05-21 | Yankees v. Red Sox UNDER 8 | Top | 2-6 | Push | 0 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
10-02-21 | Indians v. Rangers +1.5 | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show | |
09-29-21 | Marlins v. Mets OVER 7.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
09-28-21 | Marlins +1.5 v. Mets | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -160 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
09-25-21 | Cardinals v. Cubs UNDER 10.5 | 8-5 | Loss | -112 | 5 h 43 m | Show | |
09-24-21 | Mariners v. Angels +1.5 | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 21 m | Show | |
09-22-21 | Mariners v. A's OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 24 m | Show |