Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-21-21 | Braves v. Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 | 6-1 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a high-scoring game to open this series last night as the Braves finally snapped out of their offensive funk. I expect some carry-over from that offensive explosion here as we have a subpar starting pitching matchup between spot starter Jesse Chavez and Luke Weaver. Note that the 'over' is 19-10 when the Braves check in having allowed four runs or less in three straight games this season with that spot producing an average total of 9.9 runs. The 'over' is also 39-22 with Atlanta coming off two or more straight wins over the last two seasons, good for an average total of 10.4 runs. On the flip side, the 'over' is an incredible 15-3 with the D'Backs seeking revenge for a home loss against an opponent by six runs or more over the last three seasons, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 11.5 runs. Of course, Arizona has been an 'over' machine in general this month, posting a 12-3 o/u mark with an average total of 10.3 runs scored. Braves starter Jesse Chavez made just one previous spot start this season and gave up two earned runs in just 2 1/3 innings. As bad as Arizona has been in terms of wins and losses, it can score runs, having plated at least four runs in eight of its last 11 games. Luke Weaver hasn't really fooled anyone since returning from injury at the start of September. His three starts in that time have resulted in 11, 13 and 12 total runs. Behind Weaver is a D'Backs bullpen that has recorded a collective 4.81 ERA and 1.69 WHIP over their last seven games. Take the over (8*). |
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09-21-21 | Twins v. Cubs OVER 8 | Top | 9-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Chicago at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Twins have seen their last two games stay 'under' the total but now head to Chicago to face a Cubs squad that has posted five consecutive 'over' results. I'm anticipating a relatively high-scoring affair at Wrigley Field on Tuesday. Note that the 'over' has gone 10-2 when the Twins play on the road after scoring three runs or less in consecutive games this season with that situation producing an average total of 12.9 runs. The 'over' is also 12-4 with the Twins on the road after losing a tight game by two runs or less this season with that spot producing an average total of 10.7 runs. Finally, we've seen the 'over' cash at a 14-3 clip with Minnesota on the road revenging a loss in which it scored one run or less over the last three seasons, as is the case here, good for an average total of 12.0 runs. As for the Cubs, it's been a case of addition by subtraction during the second half of the season as they've posted a 38-28 o/u record, averaging 4.5 runs per game with an average total of 10.7 runs. Neither of tonight's starters instill much confidence. Griffin Jax got off to a positive start to his rookie season with the Twins but has hit the wall since, allowing 26 earned runs over his last five outings, covering a span of 25 innings. He's allowed at least one home run in all but one of his 11 starts this season and checks in sporting a 6.91 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in six road starts. Alec Mills has solid overall numbers for the Cubs this season but averages just a shade over five innings per start and that's a concern as the Chicago bullpen has posted a collective 6.39 ERA and 1.65 WHIP over their last seven games. Take the over (10*). |
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09-20-21 | Pirates v. Reds OVER 9 | Top | 5-9 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
N.L. Central Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Pittsburgh and Cincinnati at 6:40 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams are coming off a loss on Sunday, with both managing to score exactly five runs in those losing efforts. The last time we saw the Pirates and Reds match up they combined to score just one run as the Reds salvaged the final game of their series in Pittsburgh last week. I expect a different story to unfold on Monday, however. Note that the 'over' has gone 7-1 in the Pirates last eight games. That's nothing new as the 'over' is 57-37 when they play on the road in the second half of the season over the last three seasons with those games totaling an average of 9.8 runs. Also consider that the 'over' is 38-19 when the Buccos revenge a one-run loss against an opponent over that same span, resulting in an average total of 9.9 runs. Meanwhile, the Reds have posted a 41-31 o/u record at home this season (excluding pushes), good for an average total of 10.6 runs. It gets better though as the 'over' is 23-9 when Cincinnati plays at home off a loss this season, as is the case here, with that spot producing an average total of 12.1 runs. Pirates starter Dillon Peters has pitched relatively well this season but we're talking about a very small sample size of just 23 1/3 innings. Here, the Reds will be seeing him for the second time in a week. Note that the Cardinals saw him twice in a six-day span back in August. After managing just one run on three hits over five innings the first time they saw him, they doubled their hit total (6) and plated three runs, also over five innings, the next time they matched up. The Reds didn't score a single run off of Peters over five innings last week but I expect better production as they see him for a second time, especially given they're back at home. Reds starter Vladimir Gutierrez has seemingly hit the rookie wall here in September. He's now eclipsed 100 innings pitched on the season and has certainly struggled lately, allowing 13 earned runs in 15 innings over his last four starts. He recorded two strikeouts or less in three of those four outings. Both bullpens have held up well lately, but it's worth noting that the Pittsburgh 'pen has recorded a collective 4.91 ERA and 1.36 WHIP with only six saves converted and nine blown in division games this season. The Reds 'pen has posted a collective 5.66 ERA and 1.40 WHIP at home. Take the over (10*). |
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09-19-21 | Tigers +1.5 v. Rays | 2-0 | Win | 120 | 3 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit +1.5 runs over Tampa Bay at 1:10 pm et on Sunday. In a game that projects to be relatively low-scoring with a total of just 7.5 runs, we'll grab the insurance run with the Tigers at a plus-money return. Detroit dropped the first two games of this series but responded with a 4-3 victory in yesterday's game. That actually puts the Rays in a poor spot here, noting that Tampa Bay has gone 7-14 when coming off a one-run loss this season, outscored by 1.4 runs on average in that spot. Meanwhile, the Tigers check in a highly-profitable 10-8 when playing on the road after scoring four runs or less in five consecutive games over the last three seasons, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.2 runs. Rays starter Shane McClanahan is no sure thing here at home, where he averages less than five innings per start and has posted a 1.38 WHIP in 54 1/3 innings of work this season. Meanwhile, Tigers starter Wily Peralta has posted a 1.28 WHIP in 46 innings pitched on the road this season and has allowed only five earned runs over his last 20 innings of work, covering a span of four starts. Take Detroit +1.5 runs (5*). |
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09-18-21 | Phillies v. Mets OVER 7.5 | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
MLB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and New York at 7:15 pm et on Saturday. We saw a relatively low-scoring game between these two teams last night as the Phillies prevailed by a 4-3 score. Here, I'm expecting more in the way of offense as Philadelphia sends Aaron Nola to the hill against Carlos Carrasco. Note that the 'over' has gone 9-1 with the Phillies playing on the road off three or more consecutive wins this season, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 12.5 runs. Nola averages around 5 2/3 innings per start this season but has lasted less than six innings in seven of his last eight trips to the hill. Meanwhile, Carrasco averages just over four innings per start at home. That's worth considering as both bullpens have been struggling with the Phillies 'pen checking in with a 7.44 ERA and 1.65 WHIP and the Mets relief corps recording a 7.07 ERA and 1.68 WHIP over their last seven games respectively. Take the over (10*). |
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09-17-21 | A's -115 v. Angels | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oakland over Los Angeles at 9:35 pm et on Friday. NOTE: We'll make this an 'action' play with the Angels still undecided as to who they'll be starting on the mound in this game. The A's have been as streaky as it gets down the stretch and enter this series off much-needed back-to-back wins over the Royals in Kansas City. For as untrustworthy as they've been, I do like their chances of getting this series with the division-rival Angels off to a positive start on Friday night. Note that Los Angeles is coming off surprising back-to-back wins over the White Sox in Chicago. Yesterday, it exploded for nine runs in a six-run rout of the Sox. That's key as the Angels now fall in a spot where they're 11-17 when coming off a win by four runs or more this season, outscored by an average margin of 1.3 runs in that situation. They also check in a miserable 3-11 when playing at home after allowing three runs or less in consecutive games this season, as is the case here, outscored by 2.1 runs on average in that spot. Oakland will hand the ball to left-hander Cole Irvin. He deserved better than a no-decision in an eventual 8-6 loss in his most recent start as he gave up just two earned runs over seven innings against the Rangers, exiting with a 6-2 lead. Irvin has seemingly figured out the Angels over his last two starts against them, allowing just one earned run in 13 1/3 innings of work. The Angels are still undecided as to who they'll start in this one. Having not won three games in a row since late August, I see this as a spot where L.A. is essentially 'punting' back home off without an off day following an eight-game road trip. Take Oakland (10*). |
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09-16-21 | Padres v. Giants -230 | 7-4 | Loss | -230 | 7 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Francisco over San Diego at 3:45 pm et on Thursday. The Padres got the better of the Giants last night, snapping San Francisco's nine-game winning streak in the process. Here, I look for the Giants to get right back on track behind underrated starter Kevin Gausman. San Francisco checks in 11-2 with Gausman on the hill in day games this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 3.3 runs. Better still, the Giants are 10-1 with Gausman starting against division opponents this year, outscoring opponents by a whopping 3.3 runs on average. Also note that they're 11-2 when coming off a game where they gave up eight runs or more this season, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 3.5 runs in that spot. While it could be argued that the Giants were 'punting' last night's game with Dominic Leone on the hill. Here, the Padres are handing the ball to Pierce Johnson who has made just one previous start, which lasted just one inning against the Dodgers in an eventual 5-2 loss back in August. San Diego is still in the thick of the N.L. Wild Card hunt but it doesn't seem as if anyone wants to stake claim to one of those spots, the Padres included having dropped five of their last six contests. Take San Francisco (5*). |
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09-16-21 | Angels v. White Sox -189 | 9-3 | Loss | -189 | 5 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago over Los Angeles at 2:10 pm et on Thursday. The White Sox have had a tough time stringing together consecutive wins lately, doing so just once in the last two weeks. They have remained strong coming off a loss, however, and I expect them to rebound from last night's 3-2 setback on Thursday afternoon. Note that Chicago has lost back-to-back games just once since August 24th. The White Sox check in an incredible 16-2 when playing at home after scoring two runs or less this season, as is the case here, having outscored opponents by an average margin of 4.0 runs. They're also 12-1 when playing at home following a loss by two runs or less, outscoring opponents by 2.5 runs on average in that spot. With neither of today's starters likely to work deep into this game, the bullpens should play a major factor in the outcome and there, the White Sox have a considerable advantage. The Angels bullpen has had to log 32 1/3 innings over the last seven games, posting a collective 5.29 ERA and 1.58 WHIP over that stretch. Meanwhile, the White Sox bullpen has recorded a 1.57 ERA and 1.08 WHIP over that same period. Take Chicago (5*). |
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09-15-21 | Rockies v. Braves -187 | 3-2 | Loss | -187 | 11 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta over Colorado at 7:20 pm et on Wednesday. The Braves are suddenly struggling a bit having dropped two of their last three games against the lowly Marlins and Rockies. I expect them to come up with an answer on Wednesday, however, as they try to even up this series with Colorado at home. Note that the Braves have outscored opponents by 1.6 runs on average when revenging a one-run loss this season, as is the case here, with that situation coming up 23 times previously. Better still, they've outscored opponents by 1.8 runs on average when revenging a loss against an opponent as a home favorite this season - that spot has come up 20 times previously. Finally, Atlanta checks in 46-26 after losing two of its last three contests over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an impressive average margin of 2.5 runs. On the flip side, the Rockies are a miserable 2-14 when playing on the road after winning four or five of their last six games this season, outscored by 2.8 runs on average in that spot. Rockies starter Antonio Senzatela hasn't been the same pitcher on the road this season compared to at home, posting a 4.40 ERA and 1.43 WHIP with the Rockies having dropped nine of his 11 starts. Meanwhile, Braves starter Huascar Ynoa has made seven home starts, recording an impressive 2.45 ERA and 0.84 WHIP. While the Rockies bullpen continues to struggling, having posted a 5.90 ERA and 1.41 WHIP over their last seven games, the Braves 'pen has recorded a 1.25 WHIP over that same stretch. Take Atlanta (6*). |
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09-15-21 | Reds -135 v. Pirates | 4-5 | Loss | -135 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cincinnati over Pittsburgh at 6:35 pm et on Wednesday. The pressure is on the Reds right now as they've now dropped three games in a row to fall a half-game back of the second N.L. Wild Card spot. I look for them to finally get back on track on Wednesday night in Pittsburgh. Last night, Cincinnati fell behind 3-0 in the first inning and was never really able to recover. It did make a valiant comeback effort after spotting the Buccos a 6-0 lead, however, ultimately falling by a 6-5 score. The Pirates bullpen was once again awful against a division opponent, noting that group entered last night's contest sporting a collective 4.90 ERA and 1.38 WHIP with only five saves converted and eight blown against N.L. Central foes. Meanwhile, the Reds bullpen did all it could to keep them in the game, tossing 3 2/3 hitless, shutout innings. Despite last night's victory, the Pirates are still a miserable 18-47 against division opponents this season, outscored by right around 2.0 runs on average. Chalk this up as a random trend if you'd like but Pittsburgh checks in a ridiculous 2-20 in Wednesday games this season, outscored by an average margin of 3.1 runs. The Reds have gone 28-16 when playing on the road after losing three of their last four games over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.9 runs. Better still, they're 23-10 after losing six or seven of their last eight games over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by 1.1 runs on average in that spot. Tonight's starter for Pittsburgh is Mitch Keller. He's been awful against the Reds, facing them three times since the start of last season, allowing 14 earned runs on 16 hits while striking out and walking 10 in just 11 1/3 innings of work. The Reds won all three of those games by a combined 34-8 margin. Meanwhile, the Reds are 7-4 in Vlad Gutierrez's 11 road starts this season where he has posted a 3.43 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. Take Cincinnati (9*). |
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09-14-21 | Padres v. Giants OVER 9 | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
N.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between San Diego and San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a high-scoring game between these two teams last night with the Giants doing most of the heavy-lifting in a 9-1 victory. I'm anticipating another relatively high-scoring affair as the reeling Padres look to break out of their funk on Tuesday night. Note that the Giants are as hot at the plate as any team in baseball right now, having scored a whopping 8.9 runs per game during their current eight-game winning streak. Here, they'll face a Padres club that has posted a 10-1 o/u record when playing on the road after scoring one run or less in a loss to a division opponent over the last two seasons, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 13.1 runs. In fact, the 'over' is 14-4 with the Padres playing on the road after scoring one run or less in their last game over the last two seasons, good for an average total of 11.6 runs. On the flip side of that, the Giants have posted a 15-3 o/u mark when coming off a win by six runs or more against a division opponent over the last three seasons, with that spot averaging a total of 12.8 runs. While tonight's Giants starter, Anthony DeSclafani, has generally trended to the 'under', the 'over' has actually gone 9-1 in his last 10 home starts at night with those contests totaling an average of 11.2 runs. The Padres will mercifully trot out Jake Arrieta for another turn in the rotation despite his massive struggles. With Arrieta unlikely to work deep into this game we should see plenty from an overworked San Diego bullpen that has posted a collective 5.84 ERA over the last seven games. Take the over (10*). |
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09-14-21 | Cubs v. Phillies OVER 9 | 6-3 | Push | 0 | 10 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. Believe it or not, despite yet another series loss - this one coming at home against the lowly Rockies - the Phillies are still in the hunt for an N.L. Wild Card spot, currently sitting just 2.5 games back of the second spot. Here, I expect to see plenty of offensive fireworks as they open an important three-game set against the Cubs. Note that the 'over' has gone 9-1 with the Cubs seeking revenge for a home loss by six runs or more this season, as is the case here, with that situation producing a whopping average total of 15.6 runs. Meanwhile, the 'over' has cashed at an incredible 16-3 clip in Phillies starter Kyle Gibson's September outings over the course of his career, good for an average total of 11.7 runs. The wheels have come off for Gibson lately as he's been tagged for 11 earned runs on 15 hits in just 10 innings of work over his last two starts. The Cubs got their bats going a bit on their most recent homestand and should benefit from playing at hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park this week. Note that both bullpens have been unreliable lately with the Phillies relief corps posting a collective 7.86 ERA and 1.63 WHIP over their last seven games and Cubs relievers combining to record a 5.52 ERA and 1.45 WHIP over the same stretch. Take the over (9*). |
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09-14-21 | Reds -155 v. Pirates | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -155 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
N.L. Central Game of the Month. My selection is on Cincinnati over Pittsburgh at 6:35 pm et on Tuesday. The Reds limp into this series after a disappointing series loss against one of the teams they're trying to fend off in the N.L. Wild Card race, the St. Louis Cardinals. Here, I feel they're well-positioned to bounce back against a Pirates club that they've owned this season, taking nine of 10 previous meetings. Note that the Reds are an incredible 11-1 in games where Wade Miley has stated and they've been priced as a favorite -110 or higher this season, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 5.0 runs in that spot. They're also a solid 8-2 when playing on the road after losing three of their last four games this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 2.0 runs in that situation. That's not to mention their 13-4 record when playing on the road following an off day over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscoring the opposition by 2.1 runs on average. Meanwhile, the Pirates are a miserable 16-44 when playing with double-revenge this season, outscored by an average margin of 2.5 runs in that situation. They've also been outscored by 1.2 runs on average when coming off two wins in their last three games, with that situation coming up 41 times previously this season. Reds starter Wade Miley is far more likely to work deep into this game than Dillon Peters for the Buccos. Note that the Pittsburgh bullpen has recorded just five saves while blowing eight against division opponents while Cincinnati has converted 21 saves while blowing 10 against N.L. Central foes. Take Cincinnati (10*). |
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09-14-21 | Indians +1.5 v. Twins | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland +1.5 runs over Minnesota at 3:10 pm et on Tuesday. While we're being asked to lay significant juice to get the insurance run with the Indians here, I believe the price is warranted. Note that the Indians enter this series on the heels of a three-game sweep at the hands of the Brewers. They haven't lost four games in a row since back in the first week of July. Only once previously this season have they lost four consecutive games by more than a run - something they'll be looking to avoid here. Note that the Indians are 15-3 when coming off a game in which they scored one run or less this season, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.9 runs in that spot. They're also 11-3 when coming off a loss by six runs or more this season, outscoring opponents by 2.2 runs on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Twins were involved in a make-up game at Yankee Stadium yesterday, blowing a late 5-0 lead in an eventual 6-5 extra innings defeat. They're just 35-41 as a favorite this season, outscored by an average margin of 0.2 runs. When coming off three losses in their last four games this season, they check in 16-32, outscored by 1.8 runs on average in that spot. Twins rookie starter Joe Ryan flirted with a perfect game against the Indians just last week. Here, I expect Cleveland to do a better job of getting to the rookie in their second look. Indians starter Triston McKenzie has been their most reliable starter over the last month or so and checks in with a sparkling 1.42 ERA and 0.53 WHIP over his last three starts and a 1.12 WHIP in 11 road outings this season. Of course, grabbing the insurance run becomes even more helpful when you consider this is only a seven-inning game (the first half of a double-header). Take Cleveland +1.5 runs (5*). |
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09-13-21 | Red Sox v. Mariners +1.5 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
A.L. Non-Division Run-Line Game of the Month. My selection is on Seattle +1.5 runs over Boston at 10:10 pm et on Monday. I'm anticipating a tightly-contested affair as these two teams battle for American League Wild Card positioning in Monday's series-opener in Seattle. The Mariners of course suffered a major blow to their chances by dropping a pair of games against the lowly D'Backs over the weekend. They're by no means out of the race, however, as they sit just three games back of the second Wild Card spot. Note that the Red Sox have actually been outscored by an average margin of 0.9 runs over their last 33 road games. Meanwhile, the Mariners check in 20-15 after losing four or five of their last six games this season, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.3 runs in that situation. The Red Sox are just 37-48 after scoring two runs or less in their last game over the last three seasons. While they have outscored opponents on average in that spot, it has been by the slimmest of margins, just 0.1 runs. Red Sox starter Eduardo Rodriguez has been as uneven as it gets this season, and particularly of late, allowing 14 earned runs in 20 1/3 innings over his last four starts. Mariners rookie Logan Gilbert went through a miserable three-start stretch in late-August but has since turned things around, allowing just two earned runs in 9 1/3 innings over his last two outings with the Mariners splitting those two games - the lone loss came by a single run. Factoring in the +1.5 run-line, the M's are an incredible 16-2 in Gilbert's last 18 starts overall. Take Seattle +1.5 runs (10*). |
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09-13-21 | Twins v. Yankees OVER 10 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and New York at 2:05 pm et on Monday. A direct carry-over to a high-scoring series against the cross-town rival Mets over the weekend, I'm anticipating plenty of offensive fireworks as the Yankees return to the Bronx to host the Twins on Monday afternoon. Note that the 'over' has gone a perfect 7-0 with the Twins playing on the road revenging a road loss by six runs or more this season, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 12.6 total runs. The 'over' is also 21-11 with the Twins playing with double-revenge (lost their last two games against their opponent) this season, good for an average total of 10.9 runs. One final 'revenge' angle here; Minnesota has posted a 13-3 o/u mark when revenging a loss against an opponent where they scored one run or less over the last three seasons, as is the case here, with that spot producing an average total of 12.2 runs. The Yankees are giving up 5.7 runs per contest when playing at home after losing three of their last four games this season. In 12 previous situations where they've come off three consecutive 'over' results, their games have totaled an average of 10.5 runs. We should anticipate plenty of scoring opportunities this afternoon with both starters, John Gant for the Twins and Luis Gil for the Yankees, struggling with command issues. Gant has handed out three walks or more in 12 of his 18 starts this season. He owns an ugly 1.55 WHIP in 12 road starts. Gil walked just three hitters combined in his first two big league starts but has issued a whopping 11 walks, including seven in his most recent outing, over his last two starts, covering a span of just eight innings. Also note that the Yankees once-reliable but more recently overworked bullpen has posted a collective 6.13 ERA and 1.74 WHIP over their last seven games. Take the over (10*). |
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09-12-21 | Rockies v. Phillies OVER 9 | 5-4 | Push | 0 | 3 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Colorado and Philadelphia at 1:05 pm et on Sunday. The Phillies answered back after dropping the first two games in this series, recording a 6-1 victory last night. Here, I'm anticipating a higher-scoring affair as the Rockies and Phillies close out their four-game set. Note that the 'over' is 16-7 when the Phillies come off a win by four runs or more this season with those contests totaling an average of 11.0 runs. While Philadelphia is giving up 4.7 runs per game overall this season, it allows 5.3 runs per game when coming off a win. Worse still, the Phillies have allowed 5.9 runs per game when today's starter, Aaron Nola, takes the ball off a team win. That situation has come up 16 times with those games totaling an average of 10.2 runs. Finally, note that Philadelphia has allowed an average of 5.7 runs after giving up two runs or less in its last game this season, as is the case here. That spot has produced an average total of 9.5 runs. As for the Rockies, we know they've struggled to score runs on the road this season, averaging just 3.4 runs per game away from Coors Field. That hasn't necessarily been the case lately, however, as they check in averaging 5.1 runs per contest over their last 12 road games. With the potential of one, if not both of today's starters getting hit hard and two unreliable bullpens in the mix as well - note that the Rockies 'pen owns a 6.16 ERA and 1.50 ERA over the last seven games while Phillies relievers have posted a 6.32 ERA and 1.31 WHIP over the same stretch with the two 'pens combining to record just one save while blowing three over that period - I'm expecting plenty of offensive fireworks in this one. Take the over (8*). |
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09-11-21 | Marlins +1.5 v. Braves | 6-4 | Win | 111 | 10 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami +1.5 runs over Atlanta at 7:20 pm et on Saturday. The Braves took the opener of this series with relative ease last night, cruising to a 6-2 victory. I'm expecting a tighter game on Saturday, however. Note that the Marlins have actually held opponents to just 2.6 runs on average, outscoring them by an average margin of 0.2 runs in 10 previous situations where they've been seeking triple-revenge this season, as is the case here. The Marlins are also a solid 15-7 when coming off three straight games in which they scored three runs or less this season, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 2.0 runs in that spot. Meanwhile, the Braves are 20-23 after winning four or five of their last six games this season, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 0.6 runs in that situation. They're also just 18-22 when playing at home off a win, outscored by 0.4 runs on average in that spot. While Atlanta appears to have a significant edge in the starting pitching matchup tonight, it's worth noting that Miami starter Elieser Hernandez has pitched well in limited work this season, recording a 1.03 WHIP in 27 1/3 innings. Take Miami +1.5 runs (8*). |
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09-11-21 | Rangers v. A's -180 | 8-6 | Loss | -180 | 7 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oakland over Texas at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. We won with the A's in a similar price range last night and I won't hesitate to go back to the well here as the Rangers find themselves in another difficult spot against a suddenly streaking Oakland club. Note that Texas is 0-12 when playing on the road off six or more consecutive road games this season, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 3.6 runs in that spot. The Rangers are also a miserable 11-37 when playing on the road off a loss this season, outscored by 1.8 runs on average in that situation. As for the A's, they check in 32-17 when playing at home for at least the fourth straight game this season, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.8 runs in that spot. Better still, they're 28-12 when playing at home off a win this season, outscoring foes by 1.4 runs on average. Today's A's starter, Cole Irvin, has struggled lately but four of his last five outings have come on the road. Here at home he owns a 1.26 WHIP in 13 starts, with the A's having won five of his last six outings here at the Coliseum including a 12-3 win over the Rangers on August 7th. Take Oakland (7*). |
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09-10-21 | Rangers v. A's -173 | 5-10 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oakland over Texas at 9:40 pm et on Friday. I really like the way this one sets up for the A's, who are looking to make up for lost time after a really tough stretch. They enter this series off consecutive wins over the A's and I look for them to keep it going against the suddenly streaking Rangers on Friday. Texas has inexplicably won four games in a row after dropping its previous three contests. This is a tough spot for the Rangers, however, noting that they're a ridiculous 0-11 when playing on the road after six or more consecutive road games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 3.5 runs in that spot. They're also just 11-43 when playing on the road against A.L. West opponents over the last two seasons, outscored by 1.8 runs on average in those contests. Meanwhile, the A's have been a terrific 'positive momentum' play having gone 76-37 when playing at home off a win over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.3 runs. The lack of a true advantage in terms of the starting pitching matchup helps keep Oakland in a playable range here. Take Oakland (8*). |
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09-09-21 | Nationals v. Braves OVER 9 | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Atlanta at 7:20 pm et on Thursday. We saw a low-scoring game between these two teams last night as we cashed with the underdog Nationals +1.5 runs in their outright victory. Here, I'm expecting a much higher-scoring affair. Note that the 'over' is 14-4 with the Braves seeking revenge for a loss as a home favorite this season with those games averaging 12.6 total runs. The Nats check in on a 36-22 'over' run with those games totaling an average of 11.1 runs. Washington has actually been fairly consistent offensively in recent games, scoring at least four runs in six consecutive games heading into this one. With a subpar starting pitching matchup featuring Erick Fedde and Huascar Ynoa, and two less than reliable bullpens, expect a high-scoring contest on Thursday night. Take the over (10*). |
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09-09-21 | Twins v. Indians -134 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland over Minnesota at 6:10 pm et on Thursday. The Indians inexplicably lost a third straight game against the lowly Twins last night but I look for them to finally answer back on Thursday. Cal Quantrill will take the ball for Cleveland on Thursday and he's arguably been their most consistent starter in recent weeks (and months). Here, the Indians check in having gone 14-2 after scoring one run or less this season, outscoring opponents by 2.7 runs on average in that situation. Despite last night's loss, they're still an impressive 40-15 when priced as a favorite of between -125 an -175 over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.7 runs in that spot. Minnesota is a miserable 1-9 when playing on the road after winning four of their last five contests over the last two seasons, outscored by 1.6 runs on average in that situation. Interestingly, the Twins are also 4-14 when playing on the road after being held to three runs or less in two consecutive games over the last two seasons. Take Cleveland (10*). |
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09-08-21 | White Sox v. A's -154 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oakland over Chicago at 9:40 pm et on Wednesday. The A's are reeling right now, playing their worst baseball of the season at the absolute worst time. I do look for them to bounce back on Wednesday, however, as they hand the ball to Frankie Montas, who has been their most reliable starter over the last month-plus. Oakland checks in 5-2 in Montas' last seven outings. Over that stretch he's allowed just 10 earned runs in 44 2/3 innings of work. Even with last night's win, the White Sox are still just 11-27 as a road underdog over the last two seasons. Dallas Keuchel remains in the Chicago rotation out of necessity only as he's been awful for the better part of the last month. He's topped out at three strikeouts over his last five starts, recording just a single 'K' in three of those outings. Over his last three starts he checks in with a ridiculous 16.00 ERA and 3.11 WHIP. The fact that the White Sox have lost six of his last eight trips to the hill is telling. Take Oakland (8*). |
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09-08-21 | Nationals +1.5 v. Braves | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington +1.5 runs over Atlanta at 7:20 pm et on Wednesday. The Nats may simply be playing out the string at this point but it's not as if they've quit on the season. That was evident in last night's wild 8-5 loss as they rallied back from a late 5-1 deficit only to eventually fall by a three-run margin. Here, we're being offered a generous price to back the Nats with an insurance run in our pockets. Note that the Braves are just 20-27 after scoring eight runs or more in a game over the last two seasons, outscored by an average margin of 1.2 runs in that spot. They're also just 17-21 at home off a win this season, outscored by 0.5 runs on average in that situation. For whatever reason, the Nats have been outstanding on the road in Wednesday games this season, averaging a whopping 7.9 runs per game and outscoring opponents by 3.4 runs on average while reeling off seven wins in eight games. Also note that the Nats have outscored opponents by 0.5 runs on average when playing on the road with double revenge, as is the case here. There's no real edge in terms of starting pitching in this one while the Braves bullpen has converted just 13 saves while blowing 13 as well here at home. Take Washington +1.5 runs (8*). |
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09-08-21 | Twins v. Indians -125 | 3-0 | Loss | -125 | 20 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland over Minnesota at 6:10 pm et on Wednesday. I really like the way this one sets up for the Indians on Wednesday night as they try to avoid a third consecutive defeat at the hands of the lowly Twins. Note that Minnesota hasn't recorded three straight road wins against the same team since sweeping the Rangers from June 18th-20th. Tonight the Twins will be up against a red hot Triston McKenzie, who has dropped his ERA from 6.11 on July 31st to 4.62 entering this outing. McKenzie has given up just seven earned runs in 34 innings of work over his last five starts. Even with last night's loss, the Indians are still 37-19 when priced as a favorite of -110 or higher this season. That includes a stellar 26-10 mark at home. Take Cleveland (10*). |
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09-08-21 | Rangers v. Diamondbacks OVER 8.5 | Top | 8-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 24 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Texas and Arizona at 3:40 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a low-scoring game between these two teams last night. In fact, the Rangers have now seen two straight and four of their last five contests stay 'under' the total. I look for a different story to unfold here. Note that the 'over' is a perfect 8-0 with the D'Backs coming off a three-game stretch in which they hit .200 or worse as a team this season, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 13.3 runs. The 'over' is also 26-11 when Arizona revenges a loss against an opponent as a home favorite over the last three seasons with that spot producing an average total of 11.5 runs. If there's one spot where we can generally count on high-scoring games involving the Rangers, it's on the road in day games over the last two seasons, with the 'over' cashing at a 21-10 clip in that spot, good for an average of 10.5 total runs. With a subpar starting pitching matchup between Arihara and Weaver, not to mention two unreliable bullpens, look for plenty of offensive fireworks in this one. Take the over (10*). |
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09-07-21 | Angels +1.5 v. Padres | 4-0 | Win | 150 | 12 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles +1.5 runs over San Diego at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. The price is simply too good to pass up as we're being given an insurance run with the Angels at a plus-money return on Tuesday. Note that while Blake Snell has been terrific for the Padres lately, he checks in sporting a 7-13 team record after allowing two earned runs or less in consecutive starts over the last three seasons with his teams outscored by 0.9 runs on average in that spot. Meanwhile, the Angels enter this game having gone a perfect 7-0 after scoring four runs or less in five straight games this season, averaging a whopping 7.3 runs per game and outscoring opponents by an average margin of 4.9 runs in that spot. Despite their overall losing record, the Halos are also 25-18 after scoring two runs or less in a game this season, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 0.3 runs on average in that situation. Take Los Angeles +1.5 runs (6*). |
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09-07-21 | Rangers v. Diamondbacks -160 | 3-1 | Loss | -160 | 12 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona over Texas at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Rangers are coming off consecutive wins over the Angels in Anaheim while the D'Backs just got swept in a three-game set at home against the Mariners. With that being said, I look for Arizona to bounce back and send Texas back to its losing ways on the road on Tuesday night. Note that the Rangers are a miserable 3-19 when playing on the road off three consecutive games against division opponents this season, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 2.3 runs. They generally get worse as a road trip goes on, even if that hasn't been the case so far on this trip, as they check in 5-27 after playing four or more consecutive road games, outscored by 2.0 runs on average in that spot. Meanwhile, the D'Backs enjoyed a day off on Monday and that's key as they've gone 29-16 when coming off an off day over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by 1.6 runs on average. With Zac Gallen having figured out his issues for the Snakes over his last three starts (1.50 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 18 IP), look for Arizona to get back in the win column. Take Arizona (8*). |
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09-07-21 | Phillies v. Brewers +1.5 | 0-10 | Win | 100 | 10 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Milwaukee +1.5 runs over Philadelphia at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Brewers were in line for a letdown yesterday after a wild come-from-behind walk-off win on Sunday and that's precisely what happened as they had their doors blown off by the Phillies. Now they're set up well to bounce back and we're being afforded the opportunity to back them with a one-run cushion at a reasonable price. Note that Philadelphia is just 12-22 after allowing two runs or less in a game this season, outscored by an average margin of 1.6 runs in that spot. The Phillies are 29-44 after winning a game by four runs or more over the last three seasons, outscored by an average margin of 1.2 runs. Also note that Philadelphia has allowed a whopping 7.3 runs on average and has been outscored by an average margin of 1.9 runs after allowing four runs or less in three consecutive games over the last three seasons, as is the case here. You would have to go back six starts to find the last time Phillies starter Aaron Nola was on the mound for a victory by more than a single run. He hasn't guided Philadelphia to a win by multiple runs here in Milwaukee since his first career outing here back in 2016. Take Milwaukee +1.5 runs (7*). |
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09-07-21 | Nationals v. Braves -225 | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 10 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta over Washington at 7:20 pm et on Tuesday. We'll lay the chalk and back the Braves in Tuesday's series-opener against the Nationals. Washington is coming off a rare victory yesterday but still checks in just 17-42 over its last 59 games, outscored by an average margin of 1.4 runs over that stretch. Also note that the Nats are a miserable 3-14 when seeking revenge for consecutive home losses against an opponent this season, as is the case here, outscored by 1.8 runs on average in that spot. The Braves are a solid 22-10, outscoring their opponents by an average margin of 2.7 runs after losing four or five of their last six games this season, as is the case tonight. They're 39-13 when tonight's starter Max Fried starts as a favorite priced at -110 or higher over the last 2+ seasons, outscoring opponents by 2.6 runs on average. Take Atlanta (6*). |
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09-07-21 | Mets v. Marlins OVER 7.5 | Top | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
N.L. East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Miami at 6:40 pm et on Tuesday. High-scoring games involving the Marlins have been few and far between in recent weeks but that's the type of contest I'm expecting as they open a series against the Marlins on Tuesday night. Note that the 'over' has gone 12-1 when Miami plays at home after consecutive games where it recorded two hits or less over the last three seasons, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 12.6 runs. The 'over' is also 30-14 when the Marlins play at home after consecutive games where they've scored three runs or less over the same stretch, leading to an average total of 10.2 runs scored. Finally, Miami is allowing 5.0 runs per game after allowing four runs or less in five straight games over the last three seasons, as is the case here, but also averaging 5.0 runs per game itself when coming off a one-run loss against a division opponent this year. With both lineups having just got a look at tonight's opposing starter in the last week, look for more than enough offense to topple this relatively low total on Tuesday. Take the over (10*). |
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09-07-21 | Twins v. Indians -133 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -133 | 8 h 30 m | Show |
MLB A.L. Central Game of the Month. My selection is on Cleveland over Minnesota at 6:10 pm et on Tuesday. I'll keep it simple with my analysis for this play. I really like the way this one sets up for the Indians. Note that Cleveland checks in 26-9 when playing at home as a favorite priced at -110 or higher this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.8 runs. Better still, the Indians are 26-8 when coming off a game where they scored two runs or less this season, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 2.1 runs on average in that spot. They'll have Aaron CiVale back on the mound for the first time since June, noting that they've gone 12-3 in his 15 previous outings this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 2.7 runs. Meanwhile, the Twins are 9-16 when coming off two more consecutive wins this season while also going 29-40 after losing four or five of their last six games, as is the case here. Take Cleveland (10*). |
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09-06-21 | Rangers v. Angels OVER 9 | 4-0 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Texas and Los Angeles at 9:05 pm et on Monday. We won with the Rangers on the run-line in yesterday's 7-3 Texas victory. Here, I'll switch gears and back the 'over' as I look for the bats to come alive in the series finale. Note that the 'over' is 23-10 with the Angels coming off four consecutive games in which they scored four runs or less over the last three seasons with those contests totaling an average of 10.4 runs. The 'over' is a perfect 10-0 when the Angels play at home after three or more straight games against division opponents this season with that spot producing an average total of 12.6 runs. Neither Rangers rookie starter A.J. Alexy or Jaime Barria of the Angels inspire a great deal of confidence here, nor do the two ragged bullpens. Take the over (9*). |
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09-06-21 | Mariners v. Astros OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-11 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
MLB Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and Houston at 7:10 pm et on Monday. I like the way this one sets up as a high-scoring affair between the Mariners and Astros on Monday night. Note that the 'over' has gone 17-5 with the Mariners coming off four or more consecutive wins over the last three seasons, as is the case here, with those games averaging 11.8 total runs. Meanwhile, the 'over' has gone 12-3 with the Astros playing at home after losing three of their last four games with that situation producing an average total of 11.4 runs. The Astros will inexplicably be getting their sixth look at Mariners starter Yusei Kikuchi this season while the Mariners will be seeing Lance McCullers Jr. for the four time this year and seventh time since the start of 2020. Four of Kikuchi's six starts against Houston since last season have totaled at least 11 runs. Two of McCullers Jr.'s three outings against Seattle this year have reached at least 14 total runs. Take the over (10*). |
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09-05-21 | Rangers +1.5 v. Angels | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 4 h 19 m | Show |
MLB Run-Line Game of the Month. My selection is on Texas +1.5 runs over Los Angeles at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. I like the way this one sets up for the Rangers after they dropped the first two games in this series. Note that as bad as things have gone for the Rangers, particularly on the road, they haven't lost three consecutive games against an opponent away from home since back on August 6th-8th against Oakland. The A's are obviously in a class above today's opponent, the Angels. You would have to go back to July 2nd-4th to find the last time the Angels recorded three straight home wins against an opponent - those coming against the Orioles. Here, we find Los Angeles having gone 3-10, outscored by 1.9 runs on average, when coming off consecutive games in which it allowed two runs or less over the last two seasons, as is the case here. The Angels have received solid outings from their starting pitchers so far in this series but this is probably a bullpen game for them with Janson Junk making his big league debut. The Angels 'pen owns a collective 5.31 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in day games this season and checks in overworked having logged a whopping 32 innings over their last seven games. Take Texas +1.5 runs (10*). |
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09-05-21 | Cardinals v. Brewers OVER 7.5 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 4 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between St. Louis and Milwaukee at 2:10 pm et on Sunday. We saw a low-scoring game between these two teams last night, perhaps not unexpected after Friday's wild 19-run affair (St. Louis won 15-4). Here, I expect another relatively high-scoring contest as the Cards send veteran Jon Lester to the hill against Corbin Burnes. Lester has allowed exactly one earned run in consecutive outings. That actually sets the 'over' up well in this one, noting that the 'over' has gone 27-11 when Lester starts on the road after allowing one earned run or less in consecutive starts, with that situation producing an average total of 10.2 runs. The 'over' is also 14-5 with the Cards revenging a loss where they scored a single run or less this season, as is the case here, with that spot producing an average total of 9.7 runs. Meanwhile, the 'over' is a long-term 183-139 with the Brewers at home off a win by four runs or more, producing an average total of 9.5 runs. Take the over (10*). |
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09-04-21 | Phillies -120 v. Marlins | 2-3 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia over Miami at 6:10 pm et on Saturday. The Phillies got blasted by the Marlins last night but I look for them to bounce back with their most consistent starter (recently anyway) in Ranger Suarez taking the ball against Trevor Rogers (who makes his first start since July) on Saturday. Note that Philadelphia is 13-4 after allowing nine runs or more in a game this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 2.4 runs in that spot. They're 20-8 after suffering a loss by four runs or more this season, outscoring opponents by 1.9 runs on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Marlins are 0-8 after giving up four runs or less in five consecutive games over the last two seasons, outscored by an average margin of 2.4 runs on those eight previous occasions. Take Philadelphia (9*). |
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09-04-21 | Twins v. Rays OVER 8.5 | 4-11 | Win | 100 | 6 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Tampa Bay at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. |
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09-03-21 | White Sox -114 v. Royals | 2-7 | Loss | -114 | 12 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago over Kansas City at 8:10 pm et on Friday. The Royals would certainly appear to have the edge given the two starting pitcher's current form entering Friday's series-opener. However, a closer look indicates the White Sox are well-positioned to keep winning off three consecutive victories. Kansas City is in an awful negative momentum situation here having gone 0-7 after scoring three runs or less in three consecutive games this season, outscored by a whopping 3.9 runs on average in that situation. The Royals are just 7-24 when coming off three or more consecutive losses this season, outscored by 3.3 runs on average in that spot. Meanwhile, the White Sox are a reliable favorite, having gone 94-47, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.9 runs when priced at -110 or higher over the last two seasons. Should this line climb a bit, they would be in a situation where they've gone 52-24 when priced between -125 and -175 over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 2.0 runs per contest on average in that spot. Take Chicago (9*). |
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09-03-21 | Twins v. Rays OVER 9 | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Tampa Bay at 7:10 pm et on Friday. Both of these teams are coming off consecutive low-scoring games. With a subpar pitching matchup on tap Friday night, I'm expecting a different story to unfold. Note that the 'over' is a perfect 9-0 with the Twins playing on the road off consecutive games where they plated three runs or less, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 13.9 runs. The 'over' has also gone 31-9 with Minnesota having lost three of its last four contests this season with that spot producing an average total of 10.8 runs. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 17-7 with the Rays playing with 'double revenge' this season, good for an average total of 9.6 runs. The 'over' has also cashed at a 15-6 clip with the Rays coming off a game where four or less total runs were scored this season, as is the case here. That situation has produced an average total of 9.2 runs. Take the over (8*). |
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09-03-21 | Phillies v. Marlins OVER 7.5 | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and Miami at 7:10 pm et on Friday. The Phillies are desperately trying to stay in the N.L. playoff race but they've by no means tightened things up, with a number of recent slugfests. I expect another similarly high-scoring result on Friday night in Miami. The 'over' has gone 11-2 with the Phillies coming off three or more consecutive 'over' results this season, as is the case here, good for an average total of 11.3 runs scored in that spot. Meanwhile, the 'over' is an incredible 10-1 with the Marlins coming off three or more consecutive 'under' results over the last three seasons. That situation has produced a whopping average total of 13 runs - nearly double the total we're working with tonight. Both starting pitchers are coming off outings in which they didn't allow a single run. That changes here. Take the over (8*). |
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09-03-21 | Indians v. Red Sox UNDER 9 | Top | 5-8 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
American League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Boston at 7:10 pm et on Friday. If we're going to play an 'under' at this stage of the MLB season, we want to do so in situations where both starters are capable of working deep into the game as bullpens are usually overworked by this point and tend to be unreliable. That makes this play appealing as both Indians starter Cal Quantrill and Red Sox starter Nathan Eovaldi certainly fit the bill. Quantrill has worked at least six innings in seven of his last eight starts overall and has the benefit of pitching on a full five days' rest here. He's been a completely different pitcher since the second week of July, allowing more than a single earned run just three times in his last 10 outings. The 'under' has cashed in each of his last nine trips to the hill. Meanwhile, Nathan Eovaldi has worked at least into the sixth inning in eight of his last 11 starts and into the seventh inning in five consecutive outings at home. He's been solid at Fenway Park all season, recording a 2.90 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. Like Quantrill, he'll be pitching on a full five days' rest here, noting that the two starters just matched up in Cleveland last week with that game totaling eight runs. Note that two of the Indians best hitters, Jose Ramirez and Franmil Reyes are currently mired in 0-for-11 and 0-for-14 slumps at the plate, respectively. As for the bullpens, they've combined to record seven saves while blowing only two over their last eight games. With both teams playing well right now, I'm anticipating a tightly-contested, relatively low-scoring affair on a cool September night at Fenway Park. Take the under (10*). |
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09-03-21 | Mets v. Nationals OVER 9 | 6-2 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Washington at 7:05 pm et on Friday. I'm expecting a high-scoring affair in the nation's capital on Friday night as the suddenly surging Mets open a series against the reeling Nationals. Note that the 'over' has gone 11-2 with the Nats coming off three straight losses against division opponents over the last two seasons with that situation producing an average total of 12.5 runs. We've also seen the 'over' cash at an incredible 10-1 clip with the Mets playing on the road off a one-run win over a division opponent over the last three seasons with that spot resulting in an average total of 11.7 runs. Finally, the 'over' is 25-13 with the Mets playing as a road favorite priced -110 or higher over the last two seasons, good for an average total of 9.8 runs. Take the over (9*). |
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09-03-21 | Pirates v. Cubs UNDER 9 | 5-6 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and Chicago at 2:20 pm et on Friday. We saw a wild, high-scoring extra innings affair between these two teams in last night's series-opener. With the park expected to play fairly neutral weather-wise on Friday, I'm anticipating a lower-scoring contest. Note that the 'under' is 13-2 in Pirates starter Stephen Brault's 15 starts since the start of last season with those games totaling an average of just 5.9 runs. He got lit up by the Cardinals in his most recent start but I expect a solid bounce-back performance here, noting that he's pitched 10 scoreless innings against the Cubs in two starts since the start of last season. Also note that the 'under' has gone 25-8 with the Cubs coming off four wins in their last five games over the last two seasons, with that situation producing an average total of just 6.8 runs. Take the under (10*). |
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09-02-21 | Brewers v. Giants -161 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 18 h 7 m | Show |
MLB Division Game of the Month. My selection is on San Francisco over Milwaukee at 3:45 pm et on Thursday. The Giants haven't exactly been at their best lately but with arguably the most underrated starter in baseball taking the mound for them in Logan Webb on Thursday afternoon, I look for them to get past Eric Lauer and the Brewers. First let's deal with Lauer. The Giants haven't seen him since 2019 when they faced the left-hander three times, clearly figuring him out over the last two of those games, scoring nine earned runs including three home runs in just 12 innings. Lauer hasn't worked beyond the fifth inning in any of his last five starts. While he's done a nice job of keeping the ball in the park, his command has been lacking lately as he's issued five walks in nine innings over his last two starts. The Brewers bullpen has been outstanding this season, with one exception. Milwaukee's relief corps has posted a less than impressive 4.26 ERA and 1.41 WHIP with 19 saves converted and 12 blown in day games. As I mentioned, Logan Webb is one of the most underrated starters in all of baseball, particularly here at home where he has posted a 1.75 ERA and 1.01 WHIP with the Giants winning all eight of his previous starts. Webb will be looking to exact a little revenge here. He pitched well, allowing only one earned run on three hits over six innings in Milwaukee back on August 6th but the Giants ultimately dropped that contest by a 2-1 score. Note that Webb brings fantastic form to the table having recorded a 1.33 ERA and 0.98 WHIP over his last three outings. The Giants bullpen has been at its best in day games this season, posting a collective 2.77 ERA and 0.99 WHIP with 18 saves converted and only six blown. Take San Francisco (10*). |
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09-01-21 | Astros v. Mariners OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 1 m | Show |
A.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Seattle at 4:10 pm et on Wednesday. We've seen consecutive low-scoring games to open this series but I expect a different story to unfold on Wednesday afternoon. Jake Odorizzi gets the nod for the Astros. He hasn't worked six innings in a start since way back on July 9th and that's telling. He hasn't been pitching particularly well, sporting a 1.50 WHIP over his last three starts. The Mariners have already got three previous looks at him this season and have had some success, collecting eight earned runs and delivering three home runs off of him. Note that the 'over' has cashed in six of his last eight starts overall with his last two outings against the Mariners totaling 16 and 15 runs. Logan Gilbert has seemingly hit the 'rookie wall' for the Mariners. He'll pitch on just four days' rest and make his sixth start since August 4th, having allowed a whopping 24 earned runs over his previous five including five home runs over his last three trips to the hill. The Astros just teed off on him back on August 21st, scoring nine earned runs on eight hits over just 4 2/3 innings in a 15-1 victory. Both bullpens are generally solid but check in having blown two saves apiece over their last seven games respectively. Take the over (10*). |
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09-01-21 | Cardinals v. Reds -142 | 5-4 | Loss | -142 | 4 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cincinnati over St. Louis at 1:10 pm et on Wednesday. We were all set to fade the Cardinals last night before the game was postponed. We'll certainly do so again here in the first game of Wednesday's double-header as the starting pitching matchup is even more favorable for the Reds with Wade Miley going up against Miles Mikolas. Miley has been the picture of consistency. Back on July 9th he sported a 2.80 ERA. Fast forward nine starts and his ERA sits at 2.74. He brings excellent form to the table here having posted a 0.96 ERA and 1.07 WHIP over his last three outings - all Reds victories. Mikolas, meanwhile, makes just his fourth start after not starting a game since 2019 due to injury. He's held up alright but keep in mind, his first three outings this season have come against the lowly Cubs and Pirates (twice). Last time out he was actually on the losing end of an 11-7 game, allowing eight hits and three earned runs over just 4 1/3 innings in Pittsburgh. Take Cincinnati (6*). |
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08-31-21 | Yankees -1.5 v. Angels | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
A.L. Run-Line Game of the Month. My selection is on New York -1.5 runs over Los Angeles at 9:35 pm et on Tuesday. I love the way the Yankees are set up to bounce back from last night's series-opening loss here in Anaheim on Tuesday. In fact, New York has dropped three games in a row following an extended winning streak. Don't expect the Yanks losing ways to continue here as they look to tee off on Anaheim starter Jaime Barria. He's by no means a long-term solution in the Angels starting rotation. He's been used out of necessity this season, posting a 4.50 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. While those numbers aren't all bad, the wheels have come off lately as he has recorded a 9.72 ERA and 2.52 WHIP over his last three outings, covering a span of just 8 1/3 innings of work. Barria isn't fooling anyone right now, topping out at five strikeouts over his last seven starts. It's not as if the Halos bullpen is likely to rescue Barria here, noting that the L.A. relief corps has posted a collective 5.49 ERA and 1.45 WHIP over their last seven games. Jameson Taillon will take the ball for New York. Like Barria, he has struggled lately. However, he faces an Angels lineup that has been a true 'feast-or-famine' group lately. The Yankees check in 7-5 in Taillon's 12 road starts this season. The big difference here is that behind Taillon is a capable Yankees bullpen that has posted a 3.46 ERA and 1.17 WHIP with an incredible 24:7 save conversion ratio on the road this season. There's reason to believe the Yankees bats can eventually stretch out the winning margin in this one so we'll lay the extra run. Take New York -1.5 runs (10*). |
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08-30-21 | Astros v. Mariners +1.5 | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 16 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle +1.5 runs over Houston at 10:10 pm et on Monday. The Mariners picked up a much-needed victory to avoid a sweep at the hands of the Royals yesterday afternoon. Now I look for them to build some positive momentum as they open a home series against the Astros on Monday. Luis Garcia will get the nod for Houston. He's admittedly pitched well this season, but much of his success has come at home. In 11 road starts he has recorded a 4.97 ERA and 1.36 WHIP with the Astros winning just six of his 13 starts. Note that the M's will be seeing him for the third time this season and in their most recent look they got to him early and often, scoring five earned runs in 4 2/3 innings in an 11-8 victory here in Seattle. Chris Flexen, like Garcia, has also been better at home than on the road this season. Lately though, it hasn't mattered where he has pitched, he's been rock solid. Flexen has posted a 1.83 ERA and 0.97 WHIP over his last three outings - all Seattle victories. He is winless in two outings against Houston this season but catches the Astros at the right time here as they've plated just 26 runs over their last seven games combined. While the M's bullpen has quietly posted a 1.07 WHIP at home this season, the Astros 'pen has recorded a 1.50 WHIP on the road (entering yesterday's action). Take Seattle +1.5 runs (10*). |
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08-30-21 | Brewers -125 v. Giants | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
N.L. Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Milwaukee over San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Monday. |
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08-30-21 | Padres -165 v. Diamondbacks | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 15 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Diego over Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Monday. The Padres got a much-needed day off on Sunday. Meanwhile, the D'Backs dropped their third straight game against the Phillies and haven't had an off day since August 16th. That leaves a bad Snakes bullpen in dire straights having already posted an awful 5.38 ERA and 1.53 WHIP with only 11 saves converted and 11 blown at home this season. First, they'll have to face Padres starter Chris Paddack, who returns from a stint on the I.L. He's been quietly terrific on the road this season, posting a 3.91 ERA and 1.03 WHIP with the Padres winning seven of his 10 starts. Before he got hurt, San Diego had won six of his last eight outings overall so perhaps he can step in and turn the tide for its fading playoff hopes here. Tyler Gilbert tossed a stunning no-hitter in his big league debut against these same Padres three starts back. He hasn't been able to follow that performance up, however, allowing six earned runs on 12 hits over his last two outings. I look for San Diego to exact a little revenge in this one. Take San Diego (9*). |
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08-30-21 | Cardinals v. Reds -179 | 3-1 | Loss | -179 | 12 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cincinnati over St. Louis at 6:40 pm et on Monday. We followed Jon Lester's last start closely as we had an 'over' ticket in hand as the Cards hosted the Tigers. Detroit had little trouble putting runners on base but simply couldn't get the clutch hits it needed to truly get to Lester in that one. It doesn't change the fact that he's been awful this season. Lester checks in sporting a 6.15 ERA and 1.93 WHIP in eight road starts with his teams winning just three of those games. While the Cards are coming off a series win over the Pirates, they're essentially going nowhere while the Reds continue to battle for a playoff spot. Tonight's Cincinnati starter, Luis Castillo, is a big reason why the Reds are still in the race. He checks in with a 2.70 ERA and 1.10 WHIP over his last three outings. The last time he faced St. Louis he guided the Reds to a 5-3 win back on July 25th, allowing just one earned run over seven innings. Even if the Reds bats fail to get to Lester on Monday, they'll have a good chance against a Cards 'pen that blew its ninth save on the road yesterday and owns a collective 1.49 WHIP away from home this season. Take Cincinnati (9*). |
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08-29-21 | Diamondbacks v. Phillies UNDER 9 | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 40 m | Show |
MLB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Arizona and Philadelphia at 1:05 pm et on Sunday. Ranger Suarez has been about as reliable as it gets for the Phillies, stepping into the rotation at the start of the month and allowing just five earned runs in 21 1/3 innings of work. His three previous home starts have totaled just 8, 3 and 4 runs. Meanwhile, D'Backs veteran starter Madison Bumgarner has enjoyed a nice comeback season and enters this outing having worked at least six innings in six consecutive starts. His last three road outings have totaled just 5, 2 and 6 runs. The left-hander has posted an impressive 1.05 WHIP in 10 road starts this season. The less said about the two bullpens the better, but I'm not sure they'll be asked to do too much in this one, and neither lineup has really been tearing the cover off the ball (note that Friday's wild 7-6 extra innings game was 4-4 after nine innings). Weather conditions aren't nearly as favorable for hitters at Citizens Bank Park as they were earlier in the week. Take the under (10*). |
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08-28-21 | Nationals v. Mets -206 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Washington at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. While the Mets are essentially out of the playoff race thanks to their current slump, I think we'll see them show some pride with Marcus Stroman on the hill on Saturday as they snap their four-game skid here at home against the lowly Nationals. Stroman was on the hill for the Mets last win, that coming against one of the best teams in baseball, the Dodgers, in Los Angeles last Sunday. Despite his team's struggles, Stroman continues to pitch well and I expect more of the same on Saturday. He owns a terrific 2.95 ERA and 0.98 WHIP over his last three outings with New York winning two of those games, including a 4-1 victory over Washington. Sean Nolin meanwhile has made two starts for the Nats and neither was good as he was tagged for seven earned runs on 14 hits in just seven innings of work. Expect the Mets bats to wake up and get to him early and often in this one. Take New York (5*). |
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08-28-21 | Cubs v. White Sox -1.5 | 7-0 | Loss | -140 | 13 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the White Sox -1.5 runs over the Cubs at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. The White Sox bats are on fire once again and I don't see Alec Mills and his 6.00 ERA and 1.67 WHIP over his last three starts slowing them down on Saturday night. Meanwhile, Sox starter Lance Lynn took a hard-luck no decision in Toronto earlier this week but Chicago remains 7-2 in his last nine outings, including an 8-6 victory over these same Cubs at Wrigley Field. Lynn owns a sparkling 2.25 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in 14 home starts this season. With Lynn likely to work deep into the ball game and the White Sox bats in excellent form (27 runs last two games) to support him, look for a lopsided victory for the home side here. Take the White Sox -1.5 runs (6*). |
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08-28-21 | Brewers -144 v. Twins | 4-6 | Loss | -144 | 13 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on Milwaukee over Minnesota at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. The Brewers bats have been silent over the last two games, leading to rare consecutive losses for the previously red hot club. I look for them to bounce back on Saturday, however, as they hand the ball to Adrian Houser and his 8-2 team record in 10 previous road starts. Houser has done everything the Brewers have asked of him, posting a solid 3.59 ERA and 1.33 WHIP this season, guiding his team to 14 wins in 20 starts. You would have to go back five starts to May 21st to find the last time Milwaukee lost a Houser road outing. Meanwhile, Twins starter Charlie Barnes continues to struggle. He has posted a 6.75 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in just shy of 19 innings this season with those numbers rising to 8.36 and 1.79 over his last three outings. Telling is the fact that he has topped out at three strikeouts while posting fewer than that in three of his four big league starts. Behind Barnes is a Twins bullpen that has generally been awful this season and entered last night's game with a collective 7.29 ERA and 1.71 WHIP over the last seven games. Take Milwaukee (5*). |
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08-28-21 | Diamondbacks v. Phillies -1.5 | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia -1.5 runs over Arizona at 6:05 pm et on Saturday. The D'Backs have put up plenty of offense in the first two games in this series but only managed a 1-1 split. I look for them to run out of gas on Saturday as they fall short of the desperate Phillies in the third game in this series. Philadelphia did well to bail itself out of a mess in the 11th inning last night, ultimately securing a 7-6 walk-off win. That should give it some much-needed confidence ahead of another very winnable game against the lowly Snakes on Saturday. Kyle Gibson has been terrific since joining the Phils and he'll be asked to step up with another solid performance here. He owns a 2.25 ERA and 1.20 WHIP over his last three outings. Meanwhile, Humberto Mejia is only being used as a stop-gap for a poor D'Backs rotation. He pitched reasonably well against the Pirates in his last start but has generally struggled in four career big league outings, allowing eight earned runs on 19 hits in only 15 innings of work. Behind him is an awful Arizona bullpen that showed its ugly side again last night. Take Philadelphia -1.5 runs (5*). |
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08-28-21 | Royals v. Mariners -148 | 4-2 | Loss | -148 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle over Kansas City at 4:10 pm et on Saturday. The Mariners have dropped the first two games in this series in excruciating fashion but I look for them to bounce back on Saturday afternoon as they look to keep their slim playoff hopes alive. Rookie Daniel Lynch will get the start for Kansas City. He has had some positive starts but all told has posted a 4.74 ERA and 1.53 WHIP, not to mention a 44.5% hard-hit ball percentage and .282 opponents batting average. Tyler Anderson has pitched well for the Mariners since coming over prior to the trade deadline. In his lone start here at T-Mobile Park he allowed just one earned run over 5 1/3 innings in a 2-1 victory over the Rangers. Look for him to step up here as the Mariners earn a much-needed victory. Take Seattle (5*). |
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08-27-21 | Diamondbacks v. Phillies -225 | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia over Arizona at 7:05 pm et on Friday. The Phillies are reeling right now but as much as they've struggled to find wins lately, they're still in the N.L. playoff race. Thanks to playing in a weak N.L. East, they're looking up at just one team and that's the Atlanta Braves. They currently sit five games back of the division lead but with the Braves getting ready for a tough series against the red hot Giants this weekend, the opportunity is there to gain some ground. But they need to start winning. I think it happens on Friday night. Taylor Widener will take the ball for the D'Backs. We won with the 'over' in his most recent start. Note that the Phillies will be seeing him for the second time in as many weeks. They fell short by a 3-2 score the last time they faced him on August 27th. That was in Arizona. Note that the D'Backs are a miserable 17-49 on the road this season, outscored by an average margin of nearly two runs. Widener has struggled at night for whatever reason, posting a 5.21 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in eight starts. The D'Backs have won just three of those eight contests. Despite Arizona finding a bit of success lately, its bullpen remains unreliable. Snakes relievers entered last night's game sporting a 7.23 ERA and 1.93 WHIP over their last seven contests and proceeded to almost cough up an 8-2 ninth inning lead last night as well (they held on for an 8-7 victory). Aaron Nola will counter for Philadelphia. He has been terrific at home this season, posting a 3.32 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. While his ERA north of five in 15 nighttime starts leaves a lot to be desired, his WHIP sits at a respectable 1.22. Note that Nola should bring some confidence into this start after coming just one out short of a complete game against the Padres in his last outing, striking out 11 while issuing just two walks and giving up two earned runs on two hits. Nola has the benefit of having not faced the D'Backs since 2017 so a lot of their hitters have never seen him pitch. The Phillies bullpen has been uneven all season but has managed to convert 15 saves while blowing only nine here at home. Their numbers are of course far superior to those of the D'Backs. Take Philadelphia (6*). |
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08-26-21 | Dodgers v. Padres +122 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 60 m | Show |
N.L. West Game of the Year. My selection is on San Diego over Los Angeles at 9:10 pm et on Thursday. No one wants any part of the Padres in this spot but we do. Last night's game was pressure-packed. The 16-inning thriller left the Padres with yet another loss. Now I think that pressure is off. With their Wild Card lead having disappeared, no one is expecting San Diego to recover. However, the opportunity is still there and I expect it to salvage the finale of this series with the Dodgers on Thursday. It's rare that we can back Yu Darvish in an underdog role but that's the case here. He's back on the mound following a stint on the I.L. as he was dealing with back issues. That was clearly evident in his most recent start as he struggled against the lowly D'Backs. I don't believe Darvish would be back unless he felt he was ready and expect him to step in and perform well against the Dodgers, just as he has in three previous starts against them this season (3 ER allowed in 20 IP). The Padres could certainly use this game as a potential turning point, noting that Darvish has posted an 11-3 team record in 14 home starts this season Meanwhile, Los Angeles starter Max Scherzer has been lit up by the Padres twice already this season, allowing 11 ER in 10 2/3 IP. His teams are just 6-6 all-time in his 12 career outings against San Diego including a 2-2 mark in his four starts against the Pads' since 2019. Scherzer has yet to lose in four starts since joining the Dodgers but I think it comes here. Note that San Diego is still 44-28 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 0.5 runs per contest. L.A. has won 15 of its last 17 games - its best stretch of the season. I'll go the contrarian route here. Take San Diego (10*). |
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08-25-21 | Dodgers v. Padres UNDER 8 | 5-3 | Push | 0 | 9 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and San Diego at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. Both Walker Buehler and Blake Snell have pitched like aces here in August and I look for another well-pitched game as the two square off on Wednesday night at Petco Park. Buehler checks in sporting a 2.07 ERA and 0.86 WHIP in 10 road starts this season. In four August starts he has allowed just five earned runs in 26 2/3 innings of work. Not surprisingly, the 'under' has cashed in three of those four games. Meanwhile, the Dodgers bullpen has posted a collective 0.91 WHIP while converting five saves without a single blown save over their last seven games. Blake Snell owns a 2.68 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 10 home starts this season with the 'under' cashing in eight of those games. He's had his share of issues at times this season but not against the Dodgers as he's given up just four earned runs in 15 1/3 innings. In six career starts against Los Angeles, Snell owns a 1.03 WHIP. The Padres bullpen has recorded a collective ERA north of five over its last seven games but a much more respectable 1.14 WHIP. Note that both bullpens enjoyed a day off on Monday so they should be relatively fresh here in the second game of this series. Take the under (9*). |
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08-25-21 | Rays v. Phillies OVER 8 | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first five innings 'over' between Tampa Bay and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a low-scoring game between these two teams last night with just four total runs scored. I'm expecting to see a higher total reached in the first five innings alone on Wednesday, however. Ryan Yarbrough will get the start for Tampa Bay. He's been awful in three of his last four starts and checks in having allowed four home runs in his last two outings, covering a span of just 10 innings of work. The Phillies are obviously in desperate need of a spark right now and I think they get it as they face Yarbrough for the second time this season (they chased him after 4 1/3 innings in a 5-3 victory in late May). By playing the first five innings only we'll look to avoid a terrific Rays bullpen that has been lights out over the last seven games. Zack Wheeler will counter for Philadelphia. Like Yarbrough, he's struggled for the most part lately, allowing at least four earned runs in five of his last eight trips to the hill. The last time we saw Wheeler pitch here in Philadelphia he allowed two home runs over six innings against the Reds. On another favorable night for long balls at Citizens Bank Park, I expect him to get tagged again here. Take the first five innings over (10*). |
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08-25-21 | Tigers v. Cardinals OVER 9 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 38 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Detroit and St. Louis at 1:15 pm et on Wednesday. Both of these teams have been involved in their share of low-scoring games recently but I expect a different story to unfold on Wednesday afternoon in St. Louis. Tarik Skubal will take the ball for Detroit. He's pitched well over his last few starts but note that two of those came at home and the other came on the road against an awful Orioles team. Skubal still owns a less than impressive 5.11 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in nine road starts. Also note that he averages fewer than five innings per start on the road this season. That means we're likely to see plenty of a Tigers bullpen that has posted a collective 5.69 ERA and 1.61 WHIP away from home (entering last night's action). Jon Lester has been a complete train wreck this season and has done little to turn things around since joining the Cardinals. He has recorded a 5.08 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in 12 home starts. Over his last three outings that ERA sits at 5.87 to go along with a 1.70 WHIP. His last 10 starts have resulted in 13, 21, 12, 14, 19, 8, 7, 11, 13 and 12 total runs - good for an average of 13 runs. Take the over (10*). |
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08-24-21 | Royals v. Astros -217 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston over Kansas City at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Royals stayed hot, notching their fourth straight win in convincing fashion in the opener of this series in Houston last night. Look for the Astros to answer back on Tuesday as they avoid dropping their third game in a row in the midst of a playoff race. Brady Singer will take the ball for Kansas City. After making his last five starts at home, he'll head back out on the road where he has posted a 5.25 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in eight starts this season, with the Royals winning just two of those games. Note that Singer enters this start sporting a disastrous 10.21 ERA and 2.43 WHIP over his last three outings. The Royals bullpen has struggled at the best of times on the road this season, recording a collective 4.87 ERA and 1.41 WHIP entering last night's action. They haven't had an off day since August 12th and were forced to log another four innings last night with starter Daniel Lynch lasting only five frames. Luis Garcia will counter for the Astros. He's by no means a household name but he's pitched exceptionally well for Houston - particularly here at home where he owns a 1.92 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in 10 starts with the Astros winning seven of those games. Houston has done a great job of supporting Garcia, plating a whopping 38 runs over his last six starts. Despite last night's loss, the Astros are still 14 games over .500 at home this season where they outscore opponents by well north of 1.0 run per game. After dropping three of four games in Kansas City last week, they can't afford to let another series slip away against the lowly Royals. Take Houston (5*). |
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08-24-21 | Nationals v. Marlins OVER 8 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 32 m | Show |
N.L. East Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Miami at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Nationals may simply be playing out the string at this point but they're still hitting, having scored 38 runs over their last six games. I expect them to get involved in another high-scoring affair to open this series in Miami on Tuesday night. Erick Fedde will get the call for the Nats. He owns an ERA of nearly six and a 1.76 WHIP over his last three starts. The 'over' has cashed in each of his last four trips to the hill. Behind Fedde is a struggling Nats bullpen that owns a collective 6.75 ERA and 1.69 WHIP over their last seven contests. Jesus Luzardo will counter for Miami. He's struggled since coming over from Oakland, checking in with an 11.37 ERA and 2.37 WHIP over his last three starts. His last two outings have resulted in 24 and 20 total runs. Behind Fedde is a Marlins bullpen that has posted a collective 9.64 ERA and 1.97 WHIP over their last seven games. With the Marlins getting healthier lineup-wise of late, they won't shy away from a potential slugfest here. Take the over (10*). |
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08-24-21 | Angels v. Orioles OVER 10.5 | Top | 14-8 | Win | 100 | 21 h 15 m | Show |
American League Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Baltimore at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. Dylan Bundy has been marginally better (at times at least) for the Angels this season but here he'll face an Orioles lineup that will look to take their frustrations out on their former teammate - mired in an 18-game losing streak but having faced three straight opponents in the midst of playoff races. It's a different story here as the O's welcome the Angels, who just got swept by the Indians and sit out of the playoff race, two games under .500 on the season. Bundy owns an ugly 7.16 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in 10 nighttime starts this season. He's failed to last through the fifth inning in six of his last seven outings. I do think the O's lineup is better than it has shown in recent weeks and its recent struggles have had more to do with the level of opposition it has faced than anything else (Red Sox, Rays and Braves). Again, I think we see the O's take their frustrations out on the Angels subpar pitching staff on Tuesday. Spenser Watkins will counter for Baltimore. He owns a terrible 9.00 ERA and 2.00 WHIP over his last three starts. In six nighttime outings this season he has recorded a 6.21 ERA and 1.72 WHIP. Meanwhile, the O's bullpen owns a collective 5.31 ERA and 1.37 WHIP at home this season. After being held to just two runs in a three-game sweep at the hands of the Indians look for the Angles to bust out at the plate in this one. Take the over (10*). |
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08-24-21 | Mariners v. A's -140 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -140 | 8 h 22 m | Show |
MLB Daytime Game of the Year. My selection is on Oakland over Seattle at 3:35 pm et on Tuesday. The A's have now dropped three games in a row after losing the opener of this brief two-game series by a 5-3 score last night. Expect them to bounce back on Tuesday afternoon. Chris Flexen will get the call for the Mariners. While the M's are 7-3 in his 10 road outings this season, he hasn't pitched particularly well, recording a 4.92 ERA and 1.48 WHIP. After a stretch that saw him give up just one home run in five starts, he's now allowed at least one long ball in four of his last five trips to the hill. The A's will be getting their third look at Flexen this season having had plenty of previous success, scoring seven earned runs on 13 hits while walking three times and striking out only four in 11 1/3 innings of work. Of course, Oakland has gotten even stronger offensively since the trade deadline which is notable as Flexen hasn't faced the A's since July 22nd. The Mariners bullpen hasn't been great on the road this season, entering last night's action sporting a collective 4.76 ERA and 1.37 WHIP with a whopping 16 blown saves. Cole Irvin issued a season-high four walks while matching a season-low with only one strikeout in his most recent start. Still, he managed to work six innings in an eventual 5-4 win over a playoff-bound White Sox club, on the road no less. Now he's back home where he owns a solid 3.72 ERA and 1.18 WHIP this season. Note that the A's haven't dropped an Irvin home start since back on May 30th against the Angels. They've reeled off five straight wins with Irvin on the hill here at the Coliseum since. Speaking of pitching at home, the A's bullpen entered last night's action having converted 16 saves while blowing only five here at home this season. Currently on the outside looking in (by a game) in the A.L. Wild Card hunt and with their division title hopes fading, look for the A's to earn a much-needed victory on Tuesday afternoon. Take Oakland (10*). |
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08-23-21 | White Sox -107 v. Blue Jays | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
A.L. First Five Innings Game of the Month. My selection is on Chicago over Toronto first five innings at 7:05 pm et on Monday. The White Sox didn't have a banner weekend in St. Petersburg, dropping two of three games against the Rays. I do expect them to get off to a strong start at the very least against the struggling Blue Jays on Monday. Lance Lynn will take the ball for Chicago. He's having another terrific season and checks in with a 2.27 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in eight road starts. While he'll be pitching on just four days' rest on Monday that's not a major concern as he's worked just nine innings combined in his last two starts. Lynn didn't get a victory in his lone previous start against Toronto this season but did pitch well, allowing just one earned run over seven innings, striking out nine along the way. By playing the first five innings only we'll look to avoid a White Sox bullpen that hasn't had a day off in a week-and-a-half. Alek Manoah will counter for Toronto. He labored through just three innings while allowing six earned runs in his most recent start. He'll be dealing with quite a bit of pressure in this start as the Blue Jays desperately need a strong outing to get back on track and keep their slim playoff hopes alive. I expect the White Sox to take advantage of facing Manoah for the second time this season. While he was on the mound for a 6-2 Jays win in Chicago back in early June, it's not as if he was dominant, striking out only four while allowing four hits and two walks over five innings. Take Chicago first five innings (10*). |
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08-23-21 | Rangers v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 5 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Texas and Boston at 1:10 pm et on Monday. I think an off day might have been the best thing for the Red Sox slumping offense yesterday and look for them to bust out against Kolby Allard and the Rangers pitching staff on Monday. With that being said, I'm not interested in paying the massive price to back Boston here so will instead play the 'over' as I do think the Rangers can do enough offensively to help this one 'over' the total. Kolby Allard has been tagged for a whopping 12 home runs in his last seven outings. On a warm afternoon in Boston we should see the ball carrying well at Fenway Park and I expect Allard to once again give up his fair share of long balls, noting that he has posted a 33% fly ball rate on batted balls this season. Allard checks in sporting a 5.64 ERA and 1.19 WHIP on the road this season. The Rangers bullpen meanwhile has recorded an ERA north of five and a 1.47 WHIP with only six saves converted and seven blown on the road this season. Nathan Eovaldi will counter for Boston. Like Allard he's had a tough time keeping the ball in the park lately, allowing six home runs over his last four outings. Behind Eovaldi is a Red Sox 'pen that has recorded a collective 4.84 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in day games this season and a 1.44 WHIP over its last seven contests. It's been feast or famine for the Rangers offense lately but they have plated at least seven runs in four of their last eight games. Take the over (10*). |
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08-22-21 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | Top | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 13 m | Show |
N.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and Colorado at 3:10 pm et on Sunday. This game has slugfest written all over it on a hot day in Denver with the wind blowing out to right field. Off a low-scoring affair last night, look for a different story to unfold here. Taylor Widener takes the ball for the D'Backs. He has allowed at least one home run in six straight starts and three in his last two outings, spanning just 10 innings of work. Note that he hasn't lasted beyond the fifth inning in any of his last seven starts. The Arizona bullpen has of course been awful all season, posting a 5.40 ERA and 1.54 WHIP on the road (entering last night's action). Jon Gray will counter for Colorado. He's been shaky since the trade deadline passed (his name was swirling around plenty of rumors at the time). He enters this start sporting an ERA north of six and a WHIP over 1.70 over his last three outings. While the Colorado bullpen has been better lately, it still owns an ugly 5.45 ERA and 1.50 WHIP at home this season. Take the over (10*). |
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08-21-21 | Phillies v. Padres -157 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Diego over Philadelphia at 8:40 pm et on Saturday. If the Padres are to have any hope of staying in the playoff race, they need to start winning games. It really is as simple as that. After suffering a tough 4-3 loss to the Phillies last night, I look for them to get back in the win column here. Aaron Nola has been the weak link in the Phillies rotation. They've lost six of his last nine starts and he has posted a 5.56 ERA and 1.29 WHIP with a 5-8 team record on the road this season. Entering last night's game the Phillies bullpen had converted 14 saves but blown 11 on the road this season. Joe Musgrove turned in one of his worst outings of the season against the lowly D'Backs last time out. Look for him to make amends back at home where he owns a 2.43 ERA and 1.00 WHIP with a 7-5 team record in 12 starts this season. The Padres bullpen entered last night's action sporting a 2.61 ERA and 1.11 WHIP with 25 saves converted and only six blown at home. Take San Diego (7*). |
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08-21-21 | Royals v. Cubs OVER 9.5 | 4-2 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Kansas City and Chicago at 2:20 pm et on Saturday. With ideal weather conditions for the hitters (wind blowing out to left-center field) I expect a high-scoring affair at Wrigley Field on Saturday. Kris Bubic has given up five home runs in three August starts for the Royals. While the Cubs are shells of their former selves offensively, they are set up well to have a solid day at the plate on Saturday. Note that Chicago is a better hitting team both at home and against left-handed pitching this season. The Royals bullpen owns an ugly 4.98 ERA and 1.44 WHIP on the road this season. Chicago will give Keegan Thompson his first start since May. He fared ok in that start against the Dodgers but still only worked into the fifth inning. With Thompson unlikely to work deep into this game we should see plenty of the Cubs bullpen, which has been terrible lately, posting a 7.96 ERA and 1.62 WHIP over its last seven games. The Royals meanwhile busted out at the dish with multiple home runs yesterday and I expect some carry-over here. Take the over (8*). |
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08-20-21 | Marlins v. Reds OVER 8.5 | 3-5 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Cincinnati at 7:10 pm et on Friday. With weather conditions favoring the hitters once again in Cincinnati on Friday night, I'm anticipating a high-scoring affair between the Marlins and Reds. Elieser Hernandez will get just his fourth start of the season for the Marlins. He'll be pitching on four days' rest after a solid outing against the Cubs last time out. Keep in mind, he has allowed a home run in each of his three starts this season and two of his three outings have come against bottom-dwelling teams in the Pirates and Cubs. Here, he faces a playoff-hungry Reds club that averages 5.5 runs per game at Great American Ballpark. The Marlins bullpen has of course been a train wreck lately, entering last night's action sporting a collective 8.77 ERA and 1.95 WHIP over their last seven games. Sonny Gray will counter for the Reds as he makes his third straight start on just four days' rest. He owns a 5.44 ERA and 1.46 WHIP at home this season. Behind him is a Reds bullpen that has been extremely overworked, having not had a day off since back on August 2nd. With the Marlins likely to have Jazz Chisholm back in the lineup on Friday, I expect them to put up a better effort at the dish than we saw last night. Take the over (10*). |
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08-19-21 | Marlins v. Reds OVER 8 | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -114 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
MLB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Cincinnati at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. The Marlins are still undecided as to who will take the mound for the opener of this four-game series in Cincinnati. Regardless who does, I'm anticipating a relatively high-scoring affair. Cincinnati is coming off consecutive low-scoring games against the Cubs after an offensive explosion on Monday. Weather conditions have been favoring the hitters all week at already hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark and there's more of the same in the forecast for Thursday. Luis Castillo will make his third straight starts on just four days' rest. He's been laboring lately, allowing 11 earned runs on 12 hits over his last two outings, spanning just 10 innings of work. He's been tagged for at least a home run in four consecutive outings. Note that his last two starts against the Marlins have totaled 14 and 13 runs. Here, he'll be facing a Marlins club that is as close to full strength as it has been all season and is coming off a three-game series against Atlanta that saw 36 total runs scored. Behind Castillo is a Reds bullpen that hasn't had a day off since August 2nd. Not surprisingly they've struggled with an ERA north of six and a 1.160 WHIP over their last seven games. Worse still, the Marlins 'pen has posted a collective 8.77 ERA and 1.95 WHIP over their last seven contests. Take the over (10*). |
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08-19-21 | Angels v. Tigers +1.5 | 13-10 | Loss | -147 | 4 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit +1.5 runs over Los Angeles at 1:10 pm et on Thursday. The Angels will be looking for the sweep of the Tigers at Comerica Park on Thursday afternoon but I expect Detroit to have other ideas. Jose Quintana is back for our fading pleasure for the first time since late May. That's music to the ears of the Tigers as they've reeled off four straight wins over left-handed starters and actually own a winning record against southpaws this season. In fact, they're 23-8 when factoring in the +1.5 run-line in their last 31 games against LH starters. Quintana has of course been a train wreck this season, posting an ERA north of seven and a WHIP approaching two. Behind Quintana is an Angels bullpen that has been overworked this season and hasn't had a day off in over a week. Matt Manning got off to a brutal start for the Tigers this season but has shown signs of righting the ship lately. He has worked at least into the sixth inning in two of his last three starts and owns a respectable 3.15 ERA in four home starts this season. The Tigers are 3-1 in those four home starts with two of the victories coming against playoff contenders in the Cardinals and White Sox. Keep in mind, the Detroit bullpen, while also overworked has managed to convert 15 saves while blowing only six here at home this season. Take Detroit +1.5 runs (6*). |
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08-18-21 | Brewers v. Cardinals +1.5 | 6-4 | Loss | -158 | 11 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on St. Louis +1.5 runs over Milwaukee at 7:45 pm et on Wednesday. The Cardinals dropped the opener of this series by a 2-0 score last night as Corbin Burnes outdueled Adam Wainwright. We're being afforded the opportunity to back the Cardinals plus an insurance run in what should be another pitcher's duel on Wednesday and we'll take advantage. Freddy Peralta will take the ball for Milwaukee. The Brewers have won each of his last four starts. That's not their longest win streak with Peralta on the hill this season, however, as they actually won each of his five starts from May 16th to June 10th. It's worth noting though that they've yet to win five straight Peralta starts by multiple runs, something they'll be looking to do here. I expect them to fall short noting that they've won just once in Peralta's four previous starts against the Cardinals. In his lone previous outing here in St. Louis, the Brewers lost by a 5-2 score. Jack Flaherty will counter for St. Louis. He returned from injury to shut out the Royals over six innings in his last start. He's been positively dominant here at home this season, recording a 1.44 ERA and 0.72 WHIP with the Cardinals winning each of his previous four starts. Behind Flaherty is a Cards bullpen that has been terrific lately. They entered last night's game sporting a collective 2.70 ERA and 1.11 WHIP over their last seven games and proceeded to toss three shutout innings in that 2-0 loss. Take St. Louis +1.5 runs (7*). |
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08-18-21 | Brewers v. Cardinals UNDER 7 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
N.L. Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and St. Louis at 7:45 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a pitcher's duel between Corbin Burnes and Adam Wainwright to open this series last night and I expect more of the same as Freddy Peralta goes up against Jack Flaherty on Wednesday. Peralta checks in sporting a 2.60 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 10 road starts this season with the 'under' cashing in six of those games. Better still, he owns a 1.88 ERA and 0.72 WHIP in 11 nighttime starts. Note that he'll be facing a Cardinals lineup that is missing a couple of key bats in Paul DeJong (back) and Dylan Carlson (wrist). Jack Flaherty made a triumphant return to the Cards rotation last Friday night as he tossed six shutout innings against the Royals (we won with the 'under'). Flaherty has made four home starts this season, recording an incredible 1.44 ERA and 0.72 WHIP. He's faced the Brewers once this season, allowing just four hits over six shutout innings in a 2-0 victory back in May. Both bullpens are reliable enough to trust in this one. Much like last night's affair, I expect this one to have a 'playoff-type' feel and prove low-scoring once again. Take the under (10*). |
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08-18-21 | Angels v. Tigers UNDER 8.5 | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. We saw last night's game get 'over' the total thanks to a late scoring flurry from the Angels. I don't expect 'over' backers to be so fortunate on Wednesday, however. It's interesting to note that the 'over' has gone 3-0-1 so far on the Tigers current homestand but the 'under' remains 37-22-2 here at Comerica Park this season. Weather conditions should favor the pitchers on Wednesday night with the winds blowing in from left. Shohei Ohtani will take the ball for the Angels. Los Angeles has done an excellent job of managing his arm down the stretch as he'll be making just his sixth start since the beginning of July. He's been in excellent form, allowing only six earned runs over his last five starts, working at least six innings in all five of those outings. He faced the Tigers once previously this season, allowing just one earned run over six innings back in June. Tarik Skubal will counter for Detroit. Like Ohtani, he brings excellent form into this start having not allowed a single earned run over 11 innings in his last two outings. The 'under' has cashed in seven of his 12 home starts this season as he has posted a soldi 3.51 ERA and 1.22 WHIP at Comerica Park. The Angels bullpen has turned things around after a rough start to the season and has converted 17 saves while blowing only seven on the road this season. The Tigers 'pen coughed it up last night but has still posted 15 saves while blowing only six at home. Take the under (6*). |
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08-18-21 | Indians v. Twins OVER 9.5 | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 4 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Minnesota at 1:10 pm et on Wednesday. We've seen the 'under' cash in each of the first two games in this series but I look for a different story to unfold on Wednesday afternoon. First, it's worth mentioning that weather conditions favored the pitchers the last two nights but that flips to favor the hitters on Wednesday with warm temperatures and the wind blowing toward left field. Zach Plesac will take the ball for Cleveland. Having not had a day off since July (!), the Indians could certainly use a long outing from him on Wednesday but I'm not sure they'll get it. While he did pitch into the eighth inning in his most recent start, that actually works against him here as he makes his third straight start on just four days' rest. Note that Plesac has posted an ERA north of six over his last three outings and owns a very pedestrian 4.89 ERA in eight road starts this season. He's pitched just once here at Target Field, allowing five earned runs over seven innings in an 8-4 loss last September. Lewis Thorpe will get a spot start for the Twins. In three previous starts this season he has allowed six earned runs in 13 innings, managing to record only four strikeouts to go along with four walks and 13 hits allowed. With Thorpe unlikely to work deep into the game we're likely to see plenty of a Twins bullpen that owns a collective ERA nearing five at home this season. Take the over (6*). |
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08-17-21 | Pirates v. Dodgers OVER 9 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
MLB o/u Premier Play. My selection is on the 'over' between Pittsburgh and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a low-scoring game between these two teams last night as the Dodgers prevailed by a 2-1 score. I expect a much different story to unfold on Tuesday. Wil Crowe will take the ball for Pittsburgh. He's in a tough spot here, noting that he has posted a 6.10 ERA and 1.54 WHIP in eight road starts this season, most recently getting lit up for three home runs in his last road outing in Cincinnati. Dodger Stadium could very well play a bit like Great American Ballpark tonight with the wind blowing out to left-center and I expect the homer-happy Dodgers to take advantage of Crowe here. Note that Crowe has been tagged for six home runs in his last three road starts, covering a span of just 14 1/3 innings of work. Behind Crowe is a subpar Pirates bullpen that owns a 5.22 ERA and 1.37 WHIP on the road this season (entering last night's action). David Price will get the nod for the Dodgers. He'll once again be on a short leash here, having yet to last more than 5 2/3 innings in a start this season. He hasn't fared particularly well in his last two home starts, allowing four home runs in 11 innings. With the Dodgers bullpen having not enjoyed a day off in over a week, with some extra innings affairs in the mix, there's reason to believe that the Pirates can scratch together some offense tonight. Note that they were threatening virtually all game long last night but simply couldn't break through. It's been feast or famine for the Buccos at the plate lately but worth noting that they're only a couple of days removed from exploding for 14 runs against the Brewers on Saturday. Take the over (10*). |
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08-17-21 | Mets v. Giants -150 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 15 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Francisco over New York at 9:45 pm et on Tuesday. The Giants took the opener of this series by a 7-5 score last night and I expect them to notch a second straight win over the Mets on Tuesday. While the Mets are still technically in the N.L. playoff hunt, they're facing an uphill battle. With their next nine games coming against either the Giants and Dodgers they likely won't remain in the playoff picture for long. Marcus Stroman takes the ball for New York on Tuesday. While he's pitched well, my concern is that he has lasted at least six innings in just one of his last 10 starts. That's not likely to change here as he pitches on just four days' rest. That leaves plenty of work for a tired Mets bullpen that has posted a 4.85 ERA and 1.31 WHIP with 13 saves converted and 11 blown on the road this season (entering last night's action). Logan Webb is one of the most underrated starters in baseball right now for the Giants. He checks in having allowed two earned runs or less in 10 consecutive starts. Unlike Stroman, he has shown the ability to work deep into games, working six innings in each of his last four starts and six of his last 10 overall. The Giants are a perfect 7-0 when Webb takes the ball at home this season, where he has recorded a stellar 1.62 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. Behind Webb is a San Francisco bullpen that has converted 24 saves while blowing only six at home this season, combining to record an impressive 1.09 WHIP. Take San Francisco (7*). |
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08-17-21 | Mets v. Giants UNDER 8 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Tuesday. Conditions favored the pitchers last night but a couple of big innings ended up spoiling our 'under' play. Here, we have arguably a better pitching matchup with conditions once again favoring the hurlers on a warm, muggy night at Oracle Park. I'm anticipating a low-scoring affair. Marcus Stroman will start for the Mets. He checks in sporting a 2.64 ERA and 1.02 WHIP on the road this season. Going back to July 16th, his last six starts have totaled just 5, 7, 2, 8, 6 and 5 runs. Meanwhile, Giants starter Logan Webb is quite simply one of the most underrated starters in baseball right now. He has given up two earned runs or less in 10 consecutive starts, with the 'under' going 7-3 over that stretch. In fact, each of his last five outings have stayed 'under' the total. He has posted an incredible 1.62 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in seven home starts this season with all seven of those games staying 'under' the total. Take the under (9*). |
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08-17-21 | Padres v. Rockies OVER 12 | 3-7 | Loss | -112 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between San Diego and Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Tuesday. We missed with our free play on the 'over' in this matchup last night but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Tuesday. Weather conditions will once again favor the hitters considerably in this one with warm temperatures and the wind blowing out to right-center field. Matt Strahm gets a spot start for the undermanned Padres pitching staff. He's been on the hill for just 5 1/3 innings this season and has allowed opponents to hit well north of .400. Note that he hasn't made a big league start since back in 2019. He faced the Rockies once in starting role that season and was lit up for six earned runs in just 3 1/3 innings in a 9-6 loss here at Coors Field. The Padres bullpen is beyond overworked at this point, having logged north of 500 innings on the season and 34 innings over the last seven games alone. We're starting to see some signs of regression as their relief corps has posted a collective 1.47 WHIP over those last seven contests. German Marquez will counter for Colorado. The Padres haven't enjoyed much success against him this season but his two previous starts against them came at pitcher-friendly Petco Park. In his last start against San Diego at Coors Field he allowed five earned runs on eight hits over just six innings last August. Note that Marquez has seen his ERA rise from 3.37 to 3.78 since the All-Star break. He'll pitch on just four days' rest on Tuesday after getting torched for seven earned runs over four innings against the Giants last time out. Even if Marquez is sharp tonight, it's unlikely he'll work much more than six innings, opening the door for a Rockies bullpen that has been awful at home this season, posting a collective 5.66 ERA and 1.51 WHIP with 13 saves converted and 12 blown. Take the over (9*). |
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08-17-21 | Astros -192 v. Royals | 1-3 | Loss | -192 | 13 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston over Kansas City at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. We missed with the Astros last night in a disappointing one-run loss but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with them on Tuesday. Despite the loss, the Astros held on to their 2.5-game advantage atop the A.L. West as the second-place A's lost as well. Houston will give the nod to Framber Valdez on Tuesday. He'll be pitching on full rest for a sixth straight turn in the rotation and we've seen signs of encouragement lately. In his most recent outing he struck out eight - his highest total since his third start of the season. Valdez checks in sporting a 3.03 ERA and 1.14 WHIP with the Astros having won four of his six road starts. Behind Valdez is an Astros bullpen that had been performing well prior to last night's shaky performance. It's worth noting that Houston left its better arms in the 'pen in that 7-6 loss. Rookie Daniel Lynch will counter for Kansas City. While the Royals have won his last two starts, he hasn't pitched particularly well. In his most recent start he allowed three earned runs on four hits and four walks in 4 2/3 innings against the Yankees. In four home starts this season he has posted a 7.00 ERA and 1.61 WHIP. The Kansas City bullpen has posted a collective 4.25 ERA and 1.26 WHIP with 13 saves converted and eight blown at home this season (entering last night's action). Take Houston (5*). |
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08-17-21 | Cubs v. Reds -148 | 2-1 | Loss | -148 | 12 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cincinnati over Chicago at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Reds throttled the Cubs in the opener of this series last night (we won with the 'over') as they continue to put pressure on the Padres (who lost last night) in the N.L. Wild Card race. I look for Cincinnati to continue its winning ways against the reeling Cubs on Tuesday. Kyle Hendricks will take the ball for Chicago. He can't feel great about the team that's left around him although it's not as if he's been doing himself any favors with his recent performance either. Hendricks was lit up for nine earned runs on 11 hits over just four innings in a 17-4 loss to the Brewers last time out. Now he starts in Cincinnati where the Cubs have lost his last four starts. As I noted in yesterday's analysis, the Cubs bullpen is in absolute shambles right now. They entered last night's game sporting an 8.78 ERA and 1.77 WHIP over their last seven games and then proceeded to give up a whopping 11 earned runs in four innings. Cincinnati will counter for Vladimir Gutierrez. After a shaky stretch in the middle of the season, Gutierrez has once again turned things around, allowing only five earned runs over his last four starts, covering a span of 25 1/3 innings of work. Not surprisingly, the Reds won each of those four games (by a combined 37-11 margin). Gutierrez has faced the Cubs twice this season (both times prior to Chicago's sell-off at the trade deadline) and given up just three earned runs in 11 1/3 innings. The Reds bullpen certainly hasn't been great this season but does come into this one in relatively good shape having only had to work a combined 26 innings over their last eight games. Arguably their worst reliever, Heath Hembree, labored through 2/3 of an inning last night, allowing five earned runs so he likely won't be available tonight (that's not a bad thing). Take Cincinnati (7*). |
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08-16-21 | Mets v. Giants -180 | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 14 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Francisco over New York at 9:45 pm et on Monday. The Mets are still technically in the N.L. playoff hunt but with just five wins in their last 17 games and now looking up at two teams in the N.L. East and even further back in the N.L. Wild Card picture, it's highly unlikely we'll see them playing in October. Look for the Giants to add to their misery on Monday. Rich Hill will take the ball for New York. You have to go all the way back to June to find the last time he lasted beyond the fifth inning. He's topped out at four strikeouts in his last five outings. Here, he'll be facing a Giants team that sits 22 games over .500 at home this season, where they average five runs per game. Behind Hill is a Mets bullpen that just hasn't been the same on the road this season, posting a collective 4.85 ERA and 1.43 WHIP with 13 saves converted and 11 blown. Kevin Gausman has recorded a 3.21 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in 10 home starts this season with the Giants winning six of those games. While his recent results have been a little uneven, his stuff has still been there as he's struck out at least eight in two of his last three starts and in his last two outings, allowed just two earned runs in 11 innings with no home runs given up. The Giants bullpen entered yesterday's game sporting a collective 3.39 ERA and 1.10 WHIP with 22 saves converted and only six blown at home this season. Take San Francisco (5*). |
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08-16-21 | Mets v. Giants UNDER 8.5 | 5-7 | Loss | -104 | 12 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Monday. We saw a very high-scoring game involving the Mets last night as they were blown out at home against the Dodgers. Here, as they hit the road to face the N.L. West leading Giants, I'm anticipating a much lower-scoring affair. Oracle Park in San Francisco has long been known as a pitcher's park and that should hold true on Monday night with cool temperatures and the wind blowing out - but to the deepest part of the park - favoring the pitchers. Rich Hill will start for the Mets. He has posted a 1.21 WHIP in 10 road starts this season and is trending to the 'under' right now having posted a 2-4-1 o/u mark in his last seven outings. The Giants have been a weaker offensive team against left-handed pitching this season, averaging 4.2 runs per game compared to their overall average of 4.9 runs per game. Kevin Gausman counters for San Francisco. He has posted a stellar 0.97 WHIP at home this season. Gausman checks in having allowed only two earned runs in 11 innings over his last two outings. Note that the Mets have scored more than five runs in a game just once since July 23rd. The probability of an offensive breakout here is relatively low. Take the under (8*). |
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08-16-21 | Padres -126 v. Rockies | 5-6 | Loss | -126 | 13 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Diego over Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Monday. The Padres looked awful to start their series in Arizona, dropping three straight games. That all changed yesterday though as Fernando Tatis Jr. returned to the lineup and San Diego rolled to an 8-2 victory on the strength of two Tatis home runs. They can't afford to let their foot off the gas here though as their grip on an N.L. Wild Card spot remains loose. The Rockies are of course just playing out the string at this point. They managed to win just one game on their six-game road trip to Houston and San Francisco. Yes, they've been a much better team at home this season but I think they'll be hard-pressed to outslug the Padres in this one. Ryan Weathers gets the start for San Diego. He's been awful lately and it all started with an ugly performance against these same Rockies on July 30th. Starting on the road might just be the best thing for him at this point, noting that he has posted a stellar 2.28 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 23 2/3 innings of work away from home this season. He'll have a short leash as usual on Monday. With this very short price, I think bettors are putting a little too much stock in the struggling Weathers starting. He could very well only make a cameo appearance should things not go his way early in this one. Antonio Senzatela will counter for Colorado. He owns a miserable 5.97 ERA and 1.67 WHIP in seven starts against N.L. West opponents this season including one outing against the Padres in which he was tagged for four earned runs in five innings. With weather conditions favoring the hitters on Monday night at what is already a hitter-friendly ballpark, I expect Senzatela to struggle against a Padres lineup that is downright scary with Fernando Tatis Jr. back in the mix. Of course, even if Senzatela comes up with a solid outing there's little reason to have faith in the Rockies bullpen, which has recorded a collective 5.58 ERA and 1.51 WHIP at home this season. Take San Diego (5*). |
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08-16-21 | Astros -148 v. Royals | 6-7 | Loss | -148 | 12 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston over Kansas City at 8:10 pm et on Monday. The Astros dropped the series finale against the Angels yesterday but that was after winning the first two games. Look for them to bounce back on Monday as they look to solidify their grip on the A.L. West Division lead. Jake Odorizzi will take the ball for Houston. While he owns an ugly ERA north of five on the road this season, his WHIP sits at a respectable 1.19. After a rough stretch, he bounced back in his most recent outing, allowing just three hits over five shutout innings against the Rockies. Behind Odorizzi is an Astros bullpen that has been lights out lately, entering yesterday's action sporting a collective 1.42 ERA and 0.95 WHIP over their last seven contests. Carlos Hernandez will counter for Kansas City. The left-hander has pitched well lately, allowing only two earned runs in 17 2/3 innings over his last three starts. Let's not get too excited though. He has topped out at four strikeouts in three of his last four outings. He's still averaging less than five innings per start which means we'll likely see plenty of the Royals bullpen, which owns a 4.39 ERA and 1.29 WHIP with 13 saves converted and eight blown at home this season. Take Houston (6*). |
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08-16-21 | Indians v. Twins UNDER 10 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
MLB Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Minnesota at 8:10 pm et on Monday. Neither Cal Quantrill or Griffin Jax are household names, but both have been pitching exceptionally well lately and I'm anticipating a relatively low-scoring affair featuring the two young starters on Monday. The Indians are of course coming off an 11-run outburst in Detroit yesterday. Performances like that have been few and far between for this fading club lately though, as they had been held to four runs or less in four of their last five games prior to yesterday's contest. Better than their offensive production was the fact that starter Triston McKenzie gave them eight strong innings, meaning only closer Emmanuel Clase (who hadn't pitched since August 10th) was used out of the bullpen, giving that group a much-needed rest (Cleveland hasn't had a day off since July 26th). Cal Quantrill is locked in for the Indians right now having allowed two earned runs or less in six consecutive starts. He's worked at least into the sixth inning in five straight and seven of his last eight outings. He enters this outing sporting a 3.14 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in eight nighttime starts, with the 'under' going 5-2-1 in those contests. Griffin Jax was shaky in his big league debut back in early July but has settled down considerably since, allowing just six earned runs in 20 1/3 innings over his last four outings. In his most recent start, Jax worked a career high six innings and struck out 10 against a red hot White Sox lineup. Behind Jax is an improving Twins bullpen that entered yesterday's action sporting a collective 3.72 ERA and 1.10 WHIP with three saves converted and none blown over their last seven games. Take the under (10*). |
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08-16-21 | Cubs v. Reds OVER 9 | 5-14 | Win | 100 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Cincinnati at 7:10 pm et on Monday. The ball has been flying all over Great American Ballpark since mid-July but with the Reds coming off a week long road trip perhaps a lot of bettors have forgotten about their strong 11-4 o/u trend here at home. Over their last two homestands, the Reds have seen their games reach totals of 17, 11, 8, 26, 7, 7, 11, 8, 16, 12, 11, 11, 10, 14 and 5 runs - good for an average of 11.6 runs per game. With weather conditions once again favoring the hitters on Monday night, look for that 'over' trend to continue. The Cubs aren't scoring with much consistency right now but they did prove they're not completely lifeless at the dish when they plated 10 runs this past Friday night in Miami. A trip to Cincinnati could be good for them as they get to face Reds starter Wade Miley on Monday, noting that they've already seen him three times this season and have had some success, racking up 22 hits and eight walks in just 16 innings. They faced him once last year here in Cincinnati as well, chasing him before the end of the second inning but not before scoring five earned runs. I realize that this isn't the same Cubs squad post-trade deadline but there are still plenty of holdovers capable of giving Miley a rough ride on Monday. Rookie Justin Steele is one of the Cubs top pitching prospects but this isn't an ideal second big league start after he gave up a pair of home runs and three earned runs (while striking out just one) in five innings against the Brewers last week. Note that the Reds have scored at least six runs in eight of their last 12 games, plating 10 or more runs on three different occasions over that stretch. With Steele unlikely to work deep into this game we should see plenty of a Chicago bullpen that is in absolute shambles right now. Cubs relievers have posted a collective 8.78 ERA and 1.77 WHIP over their last seven games. Take the over (6*). |
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08-15-21 | Dodgers v. Mets UNDER 8 | Top | 14-4 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
MLB Sunday Night Baseball First Five Innings Total of the Year. My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between Los Angeles and New York at 7:05 pm et on Sunday. After consecutive extra innings affairs, we'll look to avoid the bullpens in this one and play the 'first five innings' under the total. Max Scherzer will get his third start with the Dodgers after his most recent outing was cut short due to rain. Scherzer should have a live arm after working just 3 1/3 innings before the rain moved in earlier this week against the Phillies. Scherzer has not surprisingly pitched well in Dodger Blue, allowing just two earned runs while striking out 16 and walking just one in 10 1/3 innings of work since joining Los Angeles. He checks in sporting a 3.00 ERA and 1.03 WHIP on the road this season. The Mets are hoping Carlos Carrasco can pick them up after back-to-back one-run extra inning losses. After pitching reasonably well in his first two starts of the season he had a rough outing last time out. It was really the story of a bad start as he gave up consecutive singles before Juan Soto touched him up for a three-run home run to start the game. In limited work this season, Carrasco has posted an impressively-low 29.0% hard-hit ball percentage to go along with a 48.4% ground ball percentage. I look for him to bounce back here. Take the first five innings under (10*). |
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08-15-21 | Yankees v. White Sox -174 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -174 | 7 h 3 m | Show |
MLB Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Chicago over New York at 2:10 pm et on Sunday. A letdown wasn't all that surprising after the White Sox beat the Yankees in thrilling fashion in the 'Field of Dreams' game on Thursday. New York got the better of Chicago last night but I look for the White Sox to answer back on Sunday afternoon. Nestor Cortes Jr. will take the ball for New York. He's pitched well in five starts this season, however he has allowed three home runs in his last two outings, covering a span of just 10 2/3 innings and will pitch on just four days' rest on Sunday. The White Sox are obviously a tough opponent, noting they entered yesterday's action 19 games over .500 at home this season, outscoring the opposition by 1.2 runs per game. Note that the Yankees bullpen entered last night's game having logged a whopping 34 innings over their last seven games and then proceeded to work another five in a 10-inning affair. While the New York relief corps has held up well, this is not an ideal spot. Lucas Giolito will counter for Chicago. He's coming off a stellar eight-inning performance against the Twins, allowing just one earned run. Here, he'll be pitching on a full five days' rest. He owns a solid 3.73 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 11 home starts this season. A stark contrast to the Yankees bullpen, the White Sox 'pen has worked among the fewest innings in baseball this season, a total of 369 entering last night's action. They've been at their best in day games this season, recording a collective 3.71 ERA and 1.27 WHIP with 14 saves converted and only six blown. Take Chicago (10*). |
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08-14-21 | Padres -200 v. Diamondbacks | 0-7 | Loss | -200 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Diego over Arizona at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. With the Reds breathing down their neck in the N.L. Wild Card race the Padres can ill afford to drop a third straight game to the lowly D'Backs on Saturday. Joe Musgrove will get the nod for San Diego. He's been the Padres most reliable starter lately, allowing two earned runs or less while working at least six innings in each of his last four starts. Over his last three outings he's struck out 23 while walking only five. The last two times Musgrove has faced the D'Backs he's tossed 13 innings of four-hit shutout ball. Behind Musgrove is a Padres bullpen that has fared well against division opponents, entering last night's action sporting a 2.81 ERA and 1.18 WHIP with 16 saves converted and only six blown. Rookie left-hander Tyler Gilbert will start for the D'Backs. He's worked out of the bullpen over the last few weeks and I wouldn't expect him to last deep into this game on Saturday. Of course, the Arizona bullpen has been awful this season, recording a collective 5.45 ERA and 1.53 WHIP with only nine saves converted and 11 blown here at home (entering last night's action). Take San Diego (5*). |
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08-14-21 | Reds v. Phillies OVER 10 | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 9 m | Show |
MLB o/u Premier Play. My selection is on the 'over' between Cincinnati and Philadelphia at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. We missed with the 'over' in this matchup last night but despite a well-pitched game from both starters we still had an opportunity to cash with the potential 'over-clinching' run at the plate in the ninth inning. Here, I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play, noting that weather conditions once again favor the hitters in Philadelphia. Luis Castillo gets the start for Cincinnati. We won with the 'over' in this most recent start - a 9-3 loss in Cleveland on Monday. Castillo will once again pitch on just four days' rest on Saturday - the third time he will have done so in his last four outings. He's now been tagged for five home runs in his last three starts and as I mentioned, conditions should favor the hitters at Citizens Bank Park on Saturday. Castillo checks in sporting a 5.40 ERA and 1.45 WHIP with the 'over' cashing in eight of his 12 road starts this season. Behind Castillo is a Reds bullpen that held up well last night but has generally struggled this season, entering last night's action sporting a collective 4.51 ERA and 1.43 WHIP with 19 saves converted and 13 blown on the road this season. Note that the Reds haven't had a day off since August 2nd. Matt Moore will get a spot start for the Phillies on Saturday. He's generally been awful this season, posting a 9.30 ERA and 2.02 WHIP in five home starts. With Moore averaging just over four innings per start we're likely to see plenty of the Phillies bullpen. Their relief corps has posted a collective 4.82 ERA and 1.46 WHIP with 15 saves converted and nine blown at home this season. Take the over (10*). |
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08-13-21 | Astros -135 v. Angels | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
MLB A.L. West Game of the Year. My selection is on Houston over Los Angeles at 9:35 pm et on Friday. We liked the Astros (understandably) earlier this week at home against the Rockies, cashing with them once in their two-game sweep. Here, I look for them to keep the positive momentum building as they continue to try to fend off the A's atop the A.L. West. Zack Greinke will get the nod for Houston on Friday. He's been terrific on the road this season, posting a 2.67 ERA and 0.95 WHIP with the Astros winning seven of his 10 starts. He's faced the Angels twice already this season, allowing just four earned runs in 14 innings with Houston winning both of those games. Behind Greinke is an Astros bullpen that has already had two days off this week and brings excellent form into this series having recorded a collective 1.35 ERA and 1.09 WHIP over its last seven games. Patrick Sandoval will counter for Los Angeles. He has quietly pitched well this season but has been a little weaker at home, where he has posted a 3.99 ERA and 1.28 WHIP with the Angels losing four of his seven starts. Since turning in his best outing of the season on July 24th in Minnesota, Sandoval has made two starts, allowing 11 hits and a whopping eight walks in just 10 2/3 innings. The Astros last saw the left-hander last August, tagging him for five earned runs on seven hits over just 2 2/3 innings in an 11-4 rout. The Angels bullpen has pitched better lately but is still an unreliable group, entering last night's action sporting a collective 4.80 ERA and 1.45 WHIP with 12 saves converted and nine blown at home this season. Note that they'll be playing their fifth game in the last four days on Friday. Take Houston (10*). |
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08-13-21 | Cardinals v. Royals UNDER 8.5 | Top | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
MLB o/u Premier Play. My selection is on the 'under' between St. Louis and Kansas City at 8:10 pm et on Friday. The Cardinals are coming off a high-scoring affair to close out their series in Pittsburgh yesterday. Keep in mind, weather conditions were favorable for the hitters in that one as it was hot and humid with the wind blowing out. We're likely to see a different story on Friday with conditions favoring the pitchers and I look for Jack Flaherty and Mike Minor to take advantage. Flaherty will of course be returning to the rotation for the first time since May. There's no question he's ready to come back, keeping in mind his injury was actually to his left side rather than his throwing side. All indications are that he could have returned in the series in Pittsburgh but the Cards didn't want him hitting in an N.L. park. Here, he'll be able to focus solely on pitching and should fare well against a Royals club he has owned, facing them once in each of the last three seasons, allowing just two earned runs in 19 innings of work. While Flaherty isn't expected to be on a pitch count for this one, we could still see plenty of the Cardinals bullpen. That's not necessarily a bad thing as they've recorded a collective 2.40 ERA and 1.01 WHIP with three saves converted and none blown in 56 1/3 innings of work in interleague play this season. Entering yesterday's action they had posted a 1.02 WHIP over their last seven contests. Mike Minor will counter for Kansas City. After a long stretch of starting exclusively on four days' rest he has had a little more time off to rest his arm lately. He's struggled in his last couple of starts but both of those came on the road. Here at home, while his ERA north of five leaves a lot to be desired, he has posted a respectable 1.18 WHIP. In his last three home outings he has allowed eight earned runs in 18 2/3 innings. Note that the Cardinals check in averaging just 3.6 runs per game against left-handed pitching this season. Behind Minor is an improving Royals bullpen that enjoyed an off day yesterday and has posted a collective 3.18 ERA and 1.10 WHIP over the last seven games. Like the Cardinals, the Royals 'pen has also thrived in interleague play, recording a 2.56 ERA and 1.20 WHIP with six saves converted and only two blown. Take the under (10*). |
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08-13-21 | A's v. Rangers UNDER 8.5 | 6-8 | Loss | -114 | 10 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Oakland and Texas at 8:05 pm et on Friday. We won with the 'over' in the A's 17-0 rout of the Indians yesterday but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' as they continue their road trip in Texas on Friday. Cole Irvin gets the start for the A's. He's actually been getting stronger as the season goes on. He'll be facing the Rangers for the fourth time this season but his most recent outing against them was his best as he gave up just two earned runs over seven innings. Note that Texas has plated just 18 runs over its last nine games combined. Irvin has been at his best on the road, recording a 3.12 ERA and 1.13 WHIP with the 'under' cashing in eight of his 10 starts. The A's bullpen has been lights out lately, recording a collective 0.99 ERA and 0.73 WHIP with three saves converted and none blown over their last seven games. Dane Dunning will counter for Texas. He's been a completely different pitcher here at the friendly confines of Globe Life Field. In 11 home outings he has posted a 2.51 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. He brings fine form into this starts having recorded a 3.37 ERA and 1.13 WHIP over his last three outings with the 'under' cashing in two of those. He last faced the A's back on July 1st in Oakland and didn't allow a single run over four innings. Behind Dunning is a Rangers bullpen that has also performed much better at home, sporting a collective 3.42 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. Take the under (8*). |
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08-13-21 | Reds v. Phillies OVER 8.5 | 6-1 | Loss | -101 | 9 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Cincinnati and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Friday. While this looks like a fine starting pitching matchup at first glance, a deeper look leads me to believe we could be in for a relatively high-scoring affair on Friday night. The Phillies are actually coming off a low-scoring series against the Dodgers despite the fact that weather conditions certainly favored the hitters with heat, high humidity and the wind blowing out. That remains the case on Friday. Tyler Mahle has been pitching well for the Reds lately. However, here he'll be making his second straight start on four days' rest after working seven innings last time out. He's allowed just three home runs in 65 2/3 innings of work on the road this season but 15 in 58 innings pitched at home. Tonight, I would anticipate Citizens Bank Park playing a lot more like Great American Ballpark than usual due to the weather conditions. Mahle has faced the Phillies twice previously, allowing five earned runs including three home runs in just six innings. The Reds bullpen has held up well lately but can it really be trusted? Cincinnati's relief corps enters this game sporting a 5.28 ERA and 1.48 WHIP with 19 saves converted but 17 blown in night games this season. Zack Wheeler is a legitimate N.L. Cy Young contender but like Mahle, is in a bit of a tough spot here as he makes his third straight start on four days' rest. When you consider he's pitched at least into the eighth inning in each of his last two outings you can understand why his arm might not have quite as much life in it on Friday. We actually won with Wheeler in his last start as he tossed a complete game shutout against the Mets. Here, however, he'll face a Reds club that is heating up having scored 18 runs in their last two games and it's worth noting that Wheeler is by no means invincible as he had allowed seven earned runs in 14 1/3 innings in his two previous starts before last Sunday's stellar outing. The Phillies bullpen hasn't been particularly sharp at home this season, recording a collective 4.82 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. In night games it has converted 17 saves while blowing 12. Take the over (9*). |
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08-12-21 | Rockies v. Giants UNDER 7.5 | Top | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 15 h 50 m | Show |
N.L. First Five Innings Total of the Month. My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between Colorado and San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Thursday. The Giants just wrapped up a two-game sweep of the lowly D'Backs last night as they pounded away on an awful Arizona pitching staff. I expect they'll find the going a little tougher on Thursday as they face Rockies All-Star starter German Marquez. Meanwhile, the Rockies offense was non-existent in a two-game sweep at the hands of the Astros (they scored a grand total of one run). Expect more of the same against Giants improving young starter Logan Webb. Marquez got roughed up by the Giants in three starts earlier this season, but all three came before the second week of May, when the veteran right-hander was struggling mightily out of the gate. He's settled down since and enters this start sporting a 2.52 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in 14 nighttime starts this season. Over his last two outings he's allowed just six hits and two earned runs in 12 innings of work. Speaking to his consistency, he has worked at least six innings in nine consecutive starts. I like the fact that he'll be pitching on a full five days' rest for the second consecutive start here. By playing the first five innings only we'll look to avoid a Rockies bullpen that is always a disaster waiting to happen, having posted a collective ERA north of five and a WHIP hovering around 1.50. Logan Webb will counter for San Francisco. He's quietly been one of the best pitchers on the Giants elite staff this season. Like Marquez, Webb got off to a shaky start this season and had a couple of rough early outings against these same Rockies. However, since giving up six earned runs in a start against Colorado back on May 5th, Webb has allowed two earned runs or less in nine consecutive outings. He's been outstanding here at home this season, posting a stellar 1.91 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in six starts with all six staying 'under' the total. He's lasted six innings in each of his last three starts and like Marquez, has the benefit of pitching on a full five days' rest here. While the Giants bullpen has held up well, it's certainly worth noting that they haven't had an off day since back on July 26th. I'm not interested in testing the waters with that relief corps here, so we'll instead play the first five innings only. Take the first five innings under (10*). |
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Sean Murphy MLB Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-21-21 | Braves v. Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 | 6-1 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 41 m | Show | |
09-21-21 | Twins v. Cubs OVER 8 | Top | 9-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
09-20-21 | Pirates v. Reds OVER 9 | Top | 5-9 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
09-19-21 | Tigers +1.5 v. Rays | 2-0 | Win | 120 | 3 h 1 m | Show | |
09-18-21 | Phillies v. Mets OVER 7.5 | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
09-17-21 | A's -115 v. Angels | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 57 m | Show | |
09-16-21 | Padres v. Giants -230 | 7-4 | Loss | -230 | 7 h 37 m | Show | |
09-16-21 | Angels v. White Sox -189 | 9-3 | Loss | -189 | 5 h 13 m | Show | |
09-15-21 | Rockies v. Braves -187 | 3-2 | Loss | -187 | 11 h 3 m | Show | |
09-15-21 | Reds -135 v. Pirates | 4-5 | Loss | -135 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
09-14-21 | Padres v. Giants OVER 9 | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
09-14-21 | Cubs v. Phillies OVER 9 | 6-3 | Push | 0 | 10 h 29 m | Show | |
09-14-21 | Reds -155 v. Pirates | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -155 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
09-14-21 | Indians +1.5 v. Twins | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 34 m | Show | |
09-13-21 | Red Sox v. Mariners +1.5 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
09-13-21 | Twins v. Yankees OVER 10 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 20 m | Show | |
09-12-21 | Rockies v. Phillies OVER 9 | 5-4 | Push | 0 | 3 h 43 m | Show | |
09-11-21 | Marlins +1.5 v. Braves | 6-4 | Win | 111 | 10 h 14 m | Show | |
09-11-21 | Rangers v. A's -180 | 8-6 | Loss | -180 | 7 h 52 m | Show | |
09-10-21 | Rangers v. A's -173 | 5-10 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show | |
09-09-21 | Nationals v. Braves OVER 9 | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show | |
09-09-21 | Twins v. Indians -134 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 46 m | Show | |
09-08-21 | White Sox v. A's -154 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 7 m | Show | |
09-08-21 | Nationals +1.5 v. Braves | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 23 m | Show | |
09-08-21 | Twins v. Indians -125 | 3-0 | Loss | -125 | 20 h 24 m | Show | |
09-08-21 | Rangers v. Diamondbacks OVER 8.5 | Top | 8-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 24 m | Show |
09-07-21 | Angels +1.5 v. Padres | 4-0 | Win | 150 | 12 h 58 m | Show | |
09-07-21 | Rangers v. Diamondbacks -160 | 3-1 | Loss | -160 | 12 h 37 m | Show | |
09-07-21 | Phillies v. Brewers +1.5 | 0-10 | Win | 100 | 10 h 17 m | Show | |
09-07-21 | Nationals v. Braves -225 | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 10 h 9 m | Show | |
09-07-21 | Mets v. Marlins OVER 7.5 | Top | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
09-07-21 | Twins v. Indians -133 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -133 | 8 h 30 m | Show |
09-06-21 | Rangers v. Angels OVER 9 | 4-0 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 22 m | Show | |
09-06-21 | Mariners v. Astros OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-11 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
09-05-21 | Rangers +1.5 v. Angels | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 4 h 19 m | Show |
09-05-21 | Cardinals v. Brewers OVER 7.5 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 4 h 58 m | Show | |
09-04-21 | Phillies -120 v. Marlins | 2-3 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 47 m | Show | |
09-04-21 | Twins v. Rays OVER 8.5 | 4-11 | Win | 100 | 6 h 53 m | Show | |
09-03-21 | White Sox -114 v. Royals | 2-7 | Loss | -114 | 12 h 24 m | Show | |
09-03-21 | Twins v. Rays OVER 9 | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
09-03-21 | Phillies v. Marlins OVER 7.5 | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show | |
09-03-21 | Indians v. Red Sox UNDER 9 | Top | 5-8 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
09-03-21 | Mets v. Nationals OVER 9 | 6-2 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 34 m | Show | |
09-03-21 | Pirates v. Cubs UNDER 9 | 5-6 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 58 m | Show | |
09-02-21 | Brewers v. Giants -161 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 18 h 7 m | Show |
09-01-21 | Astros v. Mariners OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 1 m | Show |
09-01-21 | Cardinals v. Reds -142 | 5-4 | Loss | -142 | 4 h 48 m | Show | |
08-31-21 | Yankees -1.5 v. Angels | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
08-30-21 | Astros v. Mariners +1.5 | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 16 h 34 m | Show | |
08-30-21 | Brewers -125 v. Giants | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
08-30-21 | Padres -165 v. Diamondbacks | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 15 h 5 m | Show | |
08-30-21 | Cardinals v. Reds -179 | 3-1 | Loss | -179 | 12 h 5 m | Show | |
08-29-21 | Diamondbacks v. Phillies UNDER 9 | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 40 m | Show |
08-28-21 | Nationals v. Mets -206 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show | |
08-28-21 | Cubs v. White Sox -1.5 | 7-0 | Loss | -140 | 13 h 46 m | Show | |
08-28-21 | Brewers -144 v. Twins | 4-6 | Loss | -144 | 13 h 36 m | Show | |
08-28-21 | Diamondbacks v. Phillies -1.5 | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 0 m | Show | |
08-28-21 | Royals v. Mariners -148 | 4-2 | Loss | -148 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
08-27-21 | Diamondbacks v. Phillies -225 | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 16 m | Show | |
08-26-21 | Dodgers v. Padres +122 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 60 m | Show |
08-25-21 | Dodgers v. Padres UNDER 8 | 5-3 | Push | 0 | 9 h 33 m | Show | |
08-25-21 | Rays v. Phillies OVER 8 | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show | |
08-25-21 | Tigers v. Cardinals OVER 9 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 38 m | Show |
08-24-21 | Royals v. Astros -217 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show | |
08-24-21 | Nationals v. Marlins OVER 8 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 32 m | Show |
08-24-21 | Angels v. Orioles OVER 10.5 | Top | 14-8 | Win | 100 | 21 h 15 m | Show |
08-24-21 | Mariners v. A's -140 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -140 | 8 h 22 m | Show |
08-23-21 | White Sox -107 v. Blue Jays | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
08-23-21 | Rangers v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 5 h 34 m | Show | |
08-22-21 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | Top | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 13 m | Show |
08-21-21 | Phillies v. Padres -157 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 57 m | Show | |
08-21-21 | Royals v. Cubs OVER 9.5 | 4-2 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 3 m | Show | |
08-20-21 | Marlins v. Reds OVER 8.5 | 3-5 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 5 m | Show | |
08-19-21 | Marlins v. Reds OVER 8 | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -114 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
08-19-21 | Angels v. Tigers +1.5 | 13-10 | Loss | -147 | 4 h 32 m | Show | |
08-18-21 | Brewers v. Cardinals +1.5 | 6-4 | Loss | -158 | 11 h 13 m | Show | |
08-18-21 | Brewers v. Cardinals UNDER 7 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
08-18-21 | Angels v. Tigers UNDER 8.5 | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show | |
08-18-21 | Indians v. Twins OVER 9.5 | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 4 h 59 m | Show | |
08-17-21 | Pirates v. Dodgers OVER 9 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
08-17-21 | Mets v. Giants -150 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 15 h 54 m | Show | |
08-17-21 | Mets v. Giants UNDER 8 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 20 m | Show | |
08-17-21 | Padres v. Rockies OVER 12 | 3-7 | Loss | -112 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
08-17-21 | Astros -192 v. Royals | 1-3 | Loss | -192 | 13 h 3 m | Show | |
08-17-21 | Cubs v. Reds -148 | 2-1 | Loss | -148 | 12 h 24 m | Show | |
08-16-21 | Mets v. Giants -180 | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 14 h 36 m | Show | |
08-16-21 | Mets v. Giants UNDER 8.5 | 5-7 | Loss | -104 | 12 h 23 m | Show | |
08-16-21 | Padres -126 v. Rockies | 5-6 | Loss | -126 | 13 h 38 m | Show | |
08-16-21 | Astros -148 v. Royals | 6-7 | Loss | -148 | 12 h 22 m | Show | |
08-16-21 | Indians v. Twins UNDER 10 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
08-16-21 | Cubs v. Reds OVER 9 | 5-14 | Win | 100 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
08-15-21 | Dodgers v. Mets UNDER 8 | Top | 14-4 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
08-15-21 | Yankees v. White Sox -174 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -174 | 7 h 3 m | Show |
08-14-21 | Padres -200 v. Diamondbacks | 0-7 | Loss | -200 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
08-14-21 | Reds v. Phillies OVER 10 | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 9 m | Show |
08-13-21 | Astros -135 v. Angels | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
08-13-21 | Cardinals v. Royals UNDER 8.5 | Top | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
08-13-21 | A's v. Rangers UNDER 8.5 | 6-8 | Loss | -114 | 10 h 23 m | Show | |
08-13-21 | Reds v. Phillies OVER 8.5 | 6-1 | Loss | -101 | 9 h 59 m | Show | |
08-12-21 | Rockies v. Giants UNDER 7.5 | Top | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 15 h 50 m | Show |