Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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07-08-23 | Rockies v. Giants OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -120 | 7 h 10 m | Show |
N.L. West Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Colorado and San Francisco at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. We saw a relatively low-scoring affair between these division rivals last night but I look for a different story to unfold on Saturday afternoon in San Francisco. Connor Seabold will inexplicably get another turn in the Rockies starting rotation. He enters this start sporting a 5.98 FIP and 1.47 WHIP in 66 2/3 innings of work this season. Seabold remains in the Rockies rotation out of necessity only and he's not likely to get a lot of support from the Colorado bullpen, noting that it has been as overworked as any relief corps in baseball this season, logging a collective 359 2/3 innings while posting a 4.91 ERA and 1.51 WHIP. Over the last seven games those numbers rise to 6.67 and 1.59, respectively. Ryan Walker will get the start in an 'opener' role for the Giants. He's fared well in that role this season. But again, we're only talking about a cameo appearance. Like the Rockies relief corps, the Giants 'pen has also been overworked this season, logging north of 370 collective innings. San Francisco's relievers have held up reasonably well, but not so much lately as they've recorded a collective 5.58 ERA and 1.31 WHIP over the last seven games. The Giants offense in particular has struggled lately but I see this as an ideal bounce-back spot for both lineups on what should be a pleasant afternoon for hitters on Saturday. Take the over (10*). |
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07-07-23 | Cubs v. Yankees UNDER 8.5 | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and New York at 7:05 pm et on Friday. Both of these teams are coming off high-scoring affairs on Thursday but I look for a different story to unfold as they open a three-game Interleague series on Friday in the Bronx. Jameson Taillon will take the ball for the visiting Cubs. He's had a miserable season for the most part but there's been some reason for encouragement over his last couple of outings. In those two starts, he struck out 14 while walking only one in 10 innings of work (he had struck out only 13 batters combined over his previous four outings). He continues to be bitten by the long ball far too often but perhaps a return to his old stomping ground at Yankee Stadium can help his cause. Note that Taillon logged a 3.94 FIP and 1.13 WHIP while making the majority of his starts in the Bronx as a member of the Yankees last season. He's capable of stepping up at times on the road, noting that he held the Dodgers to five scoreless innings in April and the Padres to one run over 5 2/3 innings in June, with both of those starts coming away from home. New York isn't exactly tearing the cover off the ball right now and continues to strike out way too much while not walking nearly enough. Carlos Rodon will get his first start of the season for the Yankees following a lengthy stint on the injured list. Rodon looked no worse for wear in three minor league outings, posting a 0.84 ERA and 0.56 WHIP in 10 2/3 innings of work, allowing only 6-of-38 batters he faced to reach base. You have to figure he's happy to be facing the Cubs in his first start back in the majors, noting that he's gone against them three times since the start of the 2021 season, allowing just two earned runs on seven hits over 17 1/3 innings of work (striking out 31 and walking only three). While the Yankees bullpen has been overworked this season, they do boast plenty of depth in that department and have held up reasonably well, logging a 3.06 ERA and 1.21 WHIP here at home (entering last night's action). Yankees relievers have converted 25 saves while blowing only 11. Chicago's 'pen has struggled for the most part with the exception of a few key arms. Interestingly, Cubs relievers seem better suited to 'pitching from behind' (trailing in games) rather than holding down leads. On a positive note, the Chicago relief corps entered yesterday's action having yet to eclipse the 300-inning mark this season. Take the under (8*). |
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07-06-23 | Cubs v. Brewers -105 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
N.L. Central Game of the Month. My selection is on Milwaukee over Chicago at 2:10 pm et on Thursday. The Cubs have taken the last two games in this series after dropping the opener on Monday. I look for Milwaukee to answer back in Thursday's series finale. Marcus Stroman will get the start for Chicago. We've seen some regression from the right-hander after a red hot start to the campaign as he has allowed eight earned runs on 13 hits over his last two outings spanning just nine innings of work. That's to be expected. Stroman has allowed only 6.7 hits per nine innings this season. He hasn't held opposing batters to fewer than 8.0 hits per nine innings since way back in his sophomore season in 2015 and that was an injury-shortened one (he worked only 27 innings). He has admittedly shut the door on the Brewers in three starts against them since the start of last season but here he'll be starting on short rest (four days) and even if he does pitch well there's no guarantee the Cubs up-and-down bullpen can close it out. Note that normally reliable setup man Mark Leiter Jr. has allowed four earned runs in his last two appearances and closer Adbert Alzolay has pitched in each of the last two games and may not be available as a result on Thursday. Freddy Peralta will counter for Milwaukee. He figures to be in line for some positive regression, noting that he has given up 8.1 hits per nine innings - his highest total since the 2019 campaign. The Brewers have actually lost Peralta's last two starts. They haven't lost three Peralta starts in a row since last August. We've seen encouraging signs out of the right-hander lately as he has yielded four hits or less in four straight starts and struck out at least eight batters in three of his last five trips to the hill. That comes on the heels of a stretch that saw him strike out five batters or fewer in five consecutive outings. The Brewers bullpen has admittedly struggled lately, entering last night's contest sporting a 5.11 ERA and 1.38 WHIP over the last seven games but has been reliable for the most part this season, converting 25 saves while blowing only 10. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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07-05-23 | Mets v. Diamondbacks UNDER 9.5 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 15 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a wild, high-scoring affair between the Mets and Diamondbacks yesterday afternoon but I expect a different story to unfold in Game 2 of this series on Wednesday. Kodai Senga will take the ball for the visiting Mets. He owns a 4.02 FIP and 1.35 WHIP this season. Command has certainly been an issue as he has handed out 5.1 walks per nine innings. With that said, he's been able to limit the damage by allowing just 7.1 hits and 1.0 home run per nine innings, while striking out an average of 11.1 batters per nine innings. The D'Backs don't boast an overly patient lineup and I expect Senga to find some success as he faces them for the first time in his career. Tommy Henry will counter for Arizona. He got off to a rocky start this season but has since settled down, holding seven of his last 10 opponents to two earned runs or less. Henry has worked at least into the sixth inning in eight of his last 11 outings. Behind Henry is a D'Backs bullpen that entered yesterday's game in terrific position having worked just 20 innings over the last seven games, logging a 2.25 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. While the Mets 'pen entered this series sporting a collective ERA north of four, it owns a respectable 1.27 WHIP with 20 saves converted and only 11 blown. Take the under (8*). |
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07-04-23 | Pirates v. Dodgers OVER 9 | Top | 9-7 | Win | 100 | 14 h 51 m | Show |
N.L. Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Pittsburgh and Los Angeles at 9:10 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a relatively low-scoring affair to open this series last night as the Dodgers prevailed by a 5-2 score. I expect a much different story to unfold on Tuesday as the Pirates send Luis Ortiz against impressive Dodgers rookie Emmet Sheehan. Ortiz had a cup of coffee at the big league level last season and pitched relatively well. In extended work this year, that hasn't been the case as he has logged a 5.68 FIP and 1.65 WHIP in 50 1/3 innings. While Ortiz is just one start removed from allowing only one earned run against the Marlins, performances like that have been few and far between. In his most recent outing, Ortiz labored through 4 2/3 innings against the Padres, allowing four earned runs on six hits, including two home runs, and three walks. He's giving up a whopping 10.4 hits and 4.5 walks per nine innings this season and that's a recipe for disaster against a loaded Dodgers lineup. To illustrate just how badly Ortiz has struggled, 84 of the 227 batters he has faced have managed to reach base. Behind Ortiz is a Pirates bullpen that has been effective lately but still owns a less than impressive 4.44 ERA and 1.43 WHIP on the road this season (entering last night's action). Emmet Sheehan will get his fourth career big league start for the Dodgers. Of note, he'll be starting on short rest (four days) for the first time on Tuesday. Sheehan has pitched well but has also had some good fortune, allowing just 5.3 hits per nine innings in a small sample size of just 17 innings. He wasn't particularly sharp in his most recent start in Colorado but his saving grace was the fact that he didn't issue a single walk (he allowed seven hits and three earned runs while striking out only five over five innings). Keep in mind, even at the Double-A level earlier this season, Sheehan issued an average of 3.9 walks per nine innings and he had handed out four free passes in his first 12 innings of work with the Dodgers this year. Los Angeles' bullpen has been overworked this season, logging a collective 318 2/3 innings (entering last night's contest). Dodgers relievers entered this series having posted a 3.94 ERA and 1.31 WHIP with only nine saves converted and six blown at home this season. Take the over (10*). |
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07-03-23 | Braves v. Guardians UNDER 9 | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
Interleague Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Cleveland at 7:10 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams are coming off 'over' results on Sunday but I look for a different story to unfold as they open an Interleague series in Cleveland on Monday. Bryce Elder will get the start for the visiting Braves. He went through a bit of a rough stretch in early June but has since figured it out again, allowing just three earned runs in 19 innings of work over his last three outings. The 'under' has incredibly cashed in 10 of his last 11 trips to the hill. Elder enters this start sporting a 3.79 FIP and 1.13 WHIP on the season which is right in line with his career big league numbers. Rookie Gavin Williams will counter for Cleveland. He apparently shook off the nerves we saw in his first big league outing as he bounced back to hold the Royals to just one hit over seven shutout innings last time out. While we are talking about a small sample size, he has allowed just 10-of-46 batters he has faced to reach base. Keep in mind, Williams got the call to the bigs after logging a 2.39 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in 60 1/3 innings spread across Double and Triple-A earlier this season. Both bullpens are in fairly good shape at this stage of the season with neither having eclipsed the 300-inning mark. The Braves 'pen has been lights out lately, sporting a collective 1.23 ERA and 1.05 WHIP over the last seven games. While the Guardians relief corps had a bit of a shaky weekend in Chicago, it does own a stellar 2.24 ERA and 1.04 WHIP with 13 saves converted and only four blown here at home this season. Take the under (10*). |
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07-03-23 | Astros v. Rangers -110 | 12-11 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Texas over Houston at 2:05 pm et on Monday. The Astros have taken two of the first three games of this series but I look for the Rangers to earn a split in Monday's series-finale. Cristian Javier will get the start for Houston. He hasn't seemed quite right lately as he checks in having allowed at least four earned runs in three of his last four starts. Over that stretch he struck out just six batters in 17 2/3 innings of work. We've certainly seen some regression from Javier this season as he enters sporting a 4.10 FIP after logging a sparkling 3.16 FIP last year. Note that Javier is also allowing a career-high 8.0 walks per nine innings after yielding an unsustainable 6.0 or less over each of his first three big league seasons. Finally I'll note that Javier will be starting on just four days' rest on Monday. Martin Perez will counter for Texas. He'll make his second straight start on full rest after holding the Tigers to just two earned runs on four hits over six innings in an 8-3 Rangers victory last week. Perez hasn't necessarily enjoyed a banner year to this point, posting a 4.86 FIP and 1.42 WHIP in 16 starts. Those numbers have a lot to do with a rocky start to the season, however. He enters this outing having held six of his last eight opponents to two earned runs or less, working at least six innings in six of those starts as well. The Astros do hold a slight edge in terms of the bullpens but the Rangers do come in in fairly good shape having entered yesterday's game having logged only 18 2/3 relief innings over the last seven games and 12 fewer innings than the Astros relief corps on the season. Take Texas (8*). |
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07-02-23 | Red Sox v. Blue Jays -1.5 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 49 m | Show |
Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Toronto -1.5 runs over Boston at 1:35 pm et on Sunday. Kevin Gausman will once again be tasked with lifting the Blue Jays out of a losing streak as he takes the ball against Garrett Whitlock on Sunday afternoon in Toronto. I expect the Jays to bounce back here. Gausman has posted Cy Young Award-caliber numbers this season, logging a 2.55 FIP and 1.13 WHIP in 17 starts spanning 104 2/3 innings of work. His counterpart Whitlock has pitched reasonably well at times but owns a less than impressive 4.31 FIP and 1.32 WHIP. He'll be starting on short rest (four days) after laboring through an ugly 4 2/3 inning outing against the Marlins last time out (he allowed six earned runs on 11 hits). The Jays bullpen holds an advantage in terms of recent performance, noting that they entered yesterday's action sporting a collective 2.25 ERA and 0.96 WHIP over the last seven contests. In stark contrast, the Red Sox 'pen recorded a 5.33 ERA and 1.65 WHIP over the same stretch. Take Toronto -1.5 runs (10*). |
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07-01-23 | Rays v. Mariners UNDER 7.5 | 3-8 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Tampa Bay and Seattle at 7:15 pm et on Saturday. We saw a wild, high-scoring affair as the Rays rallied for a 15-4 victory in the opener of this series last night. I expect a much different story to unfold on Saturday as we have a premier starting pitching matchup between Tyler Glasnow and George Kirby. Glasnow was lights out in his minor league rehab stint earlier this season and has been good but not great since returning to the Rays starting rotation, posting a 3.84 FIP and 1.32 WHIP in 30 1/3 innings of work. I do think his best days are ahead of him and like the matchup here as he faces the Mariners for the first time in his career. Note that Glasnow is coming off a 12-strikeout performance last time out - his highest strikeout total since April of 2021 - clearly showing that he is rounding back into form. Since scoring 23 runs over a two-game stretch last week, the Mariners have gone into the tank again offensively, scoring four runs or less in five of their last six games. George Kirby is having a tremendous season, having logged a 3.27 FIP and 1.07 WHIP in 15 starts spanning 94 innings. While the Rays lineup is daunting for the best of pitchers, Kirby probably doesn't mind facing them after tossing six shutout innings of four-hit ball against them last season. Behind Kirby is a Mariners bullpen that has struggled lately, but should theoretically be in good shape right now having worked only 271 2/3 innings collectively this season. Mariners relievers have combined to record a 3.88 ERA and 1.33 WHIP this season. The Rays 'pen has been as good as advertised lately, posting a collective 0.91 ERA and 0.98 WHIP over the last seven games. They've had to work 351 1/3 innings on the campaign but that's been more strategy-based than anything else given the nature of their starting rotation. Take the under (8*). |
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06-30-23 | Diamondbacks v. Angels -147 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -147 | 14 h 43 m | Show |
Interleague Game of the Week. My selection is on Los Angeles over Arizona at 9:35 pm et on Friday. Something has to give in this one as both the Diamondbacks and Angels are coming off consecutive losses. I like Los Angeles to bounce back as it hands the ball to Griffin Canning against Tommy Henry of Arizona. Henry has inexplicably posted a perfect 6-0 team record over his last six starts. I say inexplicably because he still owns a lofty 5.44 FIP and 1.37 WHIP this season. The D'Backs bats have been bailing him out but I believe they'll be hard-pressed to do so on Friday. Note that Henry's poor overall numbers this season have been virtually on par with the ones he posted during his rookie campaign last year (5.88 FIP and 1.45 WHIP in 47 innings pitched). Behind Henry is a D'Backs bullpen that has been good but certainly not great this season. Arizona's relief corps enters this series sporting a collective 4.36 ERA and 1.29 WHIP on the road this season. Griffin Canning got off to a bit of a shaky start this season but perhaps that was to be expected after he missed the entire 2022 campaign due to a back injury. Canning has certainly rounded into form lately, pitching as well as he has at any point during his big league career, allowing just nine earned runs in 36 innings of work over his last six starts to lower his FIP to 4.53 and his WHIP to 1.16. The Angels have handled Canning the right way this season, allowing him to pitch on full rest (five days or more) in all 12 starts. While Los Angeles' bullpen has suffered some regression lately, it still owns a collective 3.71 ERA and 1.30 WHIP on the season with 28 saves converted and only 13 blown (entering yesterday's action). Closer Carlos Estevez has been kept idle over the last two games so he should be good to go on Friday if needed. He has racked up 20 saves already this season while posting a 1.91 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in 33 innings. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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06-29-23 | Phillies v. Cubs UNDER 9 | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Chicago at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. We saw a high-scoring affair between these two teams last night as the Phillies delivered an 8-5 victory - their second in a row to open this series. I expect a different story to unfold on Thursday as Philadelphia sends Taijuan Walker to the hill against Kyle Hendricks of the Cubs. Walker has turned things around after a shaky start to the season, allowing just two earned runs on 14 hits over his last four starts, covering a span of 26 innings. He should be happy to be facing the Cubs, noting that he's gone up against them four times since 2021, yielding just five earned runs in 22 innings of work. Note that his last four outings against Chicago have totalled 3, 3, 5 and 4 runs. Kyle Hendricks has faced a similar path to that of Walker this season, albeit on a shorter time frame as he started the year on the injured list. Hendricks has lowered his FIP to 3.56 and his WHIP to 0.98 after holding his last three opponents to only three earned runs in 19 1/3 innings. You'd be hard-pressed to find two bullpens in better shape as we head toward the end of June. The Phillies 'pen entered last night's action having logged just 276 innings collectively this season and only 22 1/3 innings over the last seven games. Meanwhile, the Cubs relief corps had worked just 267 2/3 innings including only 24 over the last seven contests. Thanks to trailing for the majority of the first two games in this series, Chicago was able to keep two of its key relief arms in Mark Leiter Jr. and closer Adbert Alzolay idle. Take the under (8*). |
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06-28-23 | White Sox +108 v. Angels | 11-5 | Win | 108 | 12 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago over Los Angeles at 9:35 pm et on Wednesday. The White Sox have dropped the first two games in this series as their bats have gone silent against the Angels pitching staff. I do think they're set up well to avoid a third straight loss on Wednesday, however, as they hand the ball to Lucas Giolito against Jaime Barria of the Angels. Giolito is enjoying a bit of a renaissance season after a down year in 2022. His hits and walks allowed were up considerably last year and as a result his WHIP hovered around 1.44. This year, he's lowered that WHIP to 1.20 with his FIP sitting at 4.19. Giolito certainly brings solid form into this outing as he has allowed just four earned runs in 24 innings of work over his last four starts. He should be pleased to be facing the Angels as he owns a 3-1 record with a 3.97 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in eight career outings against them. Behind Giolito is a White Sox bullpen that has logged a respectable 3.67 ERA and 1.07 WHIP over the last seven games. The Angels relief corps, meanwhile, has posted a collective 4.32 ERA and 1.44 WHIP over the same stretch and used two of its key bullpen arms in Jacob Webb and closer Carlos Estevez in each of the first two games in this series. As I mentioned, Jaime Barria will get his fifth spot start of the season for the Angels. He has fared reasonably well with a 3.69 FIP and 1.06 WHIP across 16 outings spanning 46 1/3 innings this season. In fact, the Angels have won all four of his starts this season. I'm not convinced some of his numbers are sustainable, however, as he has allowed just 6.8 hits and 0.8 home runs per nine innings. Note that over the course of his big league career, Barria has yielded 8.5 hits and 1.4 home runs per nine innings. This will be his second start against the White Sox this season and while the Halos won his first by a 12-3 score, Barria wasn't exactly dominant, allowing four hits and three walks while striking out six over five innings. Take Chicago (8*). |
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06-28-23 | Tigers v. Rangers -1.5 | Top | 2-10 | Win | 100 | 23 h 43 m | Show |
American League Game of the Week. My selection is on Texas -1.5 runs over Detroit at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. After a red hot start to the season, the Rangers have cooled off considerably - certainly at the plate. I look for them to get the best of the Tigers pitching staff on Wednesday, however. Joey Wentz will get another turn in the Detroit starting rotation out of necessity only. The Tigers are missing a number of regular starters right now, leaving Wentz as one of the only options to hold down one of the five spots. He checks in sporting a 5.46 FIP and 1.58 WHIP on the campaign and will have to face a Rangers club that has feasted on left-handed starting pitching to the tune of a 14-9 record, averaging 6.6 runs per game. To make matters worse, Wentz will be starting on short rest (four days) after an exhausting five-inning effort that saw him allow five hits, two of them home runs, four walks and four runs (three of them earned) against the Twins. The Rangers will be getting their second look at Wentz in less than a month after frustratingly plating just one run on seven hits over 4 2/3 innings against him on May 31st. Dane Dunning will counter for Texas. He is quietly enjoying a fine season, logging a 3.93 FIP and 1.17 WHIP in 71 2/3 innings of work. Dunning has gone winless in his last three outings against the Tigers but all three of those starts came in Detroit. He's faced the Tigers twice in his career here in Texas with the Rangers winning both of those contests by multiple runs. If there's an advantage the Rangers have in the latter innings in this one it's the fact that their bullpen entered last night's contest having worked a collective 64 innings fewer than that of the Tigers this season. Over the last seven games alone Detroit's 'pen had logged 30 innings. With Wednesday's starter Wentz having lasted beyond the fifth inning just once in his last seven outings, it could be another busy night for the Tigers relief corps. Take Texas -1.5 runs (10*). |
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06-27-23 | Tigers v. Rangers -1.5 | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on Texas -1.5 runs over Detroit at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Rangers dropped the opener of this series last night - their third straight defeat. I look for them to bounce back on Tuesday, however, as they hand the ball to Martin Perez against Matt Manning of the Tigers. Perez hasn't been able to match the terrific numbers he posted last season, logging a 4.97 FIP and 1.45 WHIP. With that said, he does check in having lasted at least six innings in five of his last seven starts and has given up just five earned runs on seven hits over his last two outings covering a span of 13 innings. Matt Manning will make just his third start of the season for the Tigers. In those two outings he recorded a 7.29 FIP and 1.29 WHIP. He has also pitched just 8 2/3 at the Triple-A level, allowing 16-of-39 batters to reach base while recording a 1.85 WHIP. The two bullpens are virtually a wash in this matchup although the Tigers relief corps has certainly been more taxed lately, logging a collective 30 innings over the last seven games, including 8 1/3 innings last night after starter Matt Boyd was forced to leave due to injury. Take Texas -1.5 runs (8*). |
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06-27-23 | Brewers v. Mets OVER 9 | Top | 2-7 | Push | 0 | 22 h 33 m | Show |
National League Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and New York at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. I'm expecting a high-scoring affair in Queens on Tuesday as the Brewers and Mets continue their four-game series. Milwaukee will give the start to veteran Julio Teheran. He's burst back on the scene recording a 1.53 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in 35 1/3 innings of work this season. I simply wonder how long he can keep it up. Note that the last time we saw Teheran pitch a full big league season was in 2019 when he logged a 4.66 FIP and 1.32 WHIP with the Braves. In limited work in 2020 and 2021, Teheran recorded an 8.62 and 6.37 FIP, respectively. At the minor league level this year, Teheran had posted a 5.62 ERA and 1.68 WHIP in 40 innings with the Padres Triple-A affiliate. Behind Teheran is a Brewers bullpen that has pitched well lately but still checks in sporting a collective 4.47 ERA and 1.43 WHIP on the road this season (entering last night's action). David Peterson makes his return to the Mets starting rotation, starting a MLB game for the first time in over a month. Keep in mind, he has struggled to the tune of a 4.78 FIP and 1.74 WHIP at the big league level this season. He hasn't fared much better in the minors, posting a 4.86 ERA and 1.62 WHIP in 37 innings at Triple-A. The Brewers don't figure to be a favorable opponent for Peterson to return against, noting they've lit him up to the tune of nine earned runs in eight innings in two games against him going back to last year. The Mets bullpen entered this series having recorded a collective 4.24 ERA and 1.59 WHIP over the last seven contests. Take the over (10*). |
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06-26-23 | White Sox v. Angels UNDER 8.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 15 h 51 m | Show |
A.L. Non-Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Los Angeles at 9:35 pm et on Monday. The Angels scored a whopping 25 runs in Saturday's win over the Rockies at hitter-friendly Coors Field but it was right back to the doldrums on Sunday as they plated only three runs, losing for the fifth time in their last six games, including a pair of shutout losses. It's been a similar struggle for the White Sox offense as they've scored four runs or less in eight of their last 10 games overall. Dylan Cease will get the start for Chicago on Monday. After a shaky start to the season, he's settled down, allowing two earned runs or less in each of his last four outings. Cease owns a 3.99 FIP and 1.32 WHIP on the season - rather pedestrian numbers to be sure - however, those numbers have been trending doward. Cease faced the Angels once last season, tossing seven shutout innings in a 3-0 victory. Reid Detmers will counter for Los Angeles. He'll have the advantage of facing the White Sox for the first time in his career and comes in hot, having allowed just two earned runs in 18 2/3 innings over his last three starts. What I like about Detmers is the fact that he's yet to be asked to pitch on short rest (four days) this season. He checks in sporting a career-best 3.27 FIP and 1.36 WHIP. As far as the bullpens go, the White Sox relief corps has pitched much better lately, entering yesterday's action sporting a collective 4.05 ERA and 1.28 WHIP over the last seven games. While the Angels 'pen has struggled lately, it still went into Sunday's action with a solid 3.65 ERA and 1.29 WHIP, not to mention 27 converted saves and only 13 blown. Take the under (10*). |
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06-26-23 | Tigers v. Rangers -1.5 | 7-2 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on Texas -1.5 runs over Detroit at 8:05 pm et on Monday. The Tigers have been playing reasonably well but I don't believe this is a good matchup at all for them as they head to Texas to face a Rangers club that's coming off back-to-back losses to the Yankees in the Bronx over the weekend. Matt Boyd will get the call for the visiting Tigers. He'll be starting on short rest (four day) which is notable as he has not fared well in that situation this season, allowing 16 earned runs in 22 1/3 innings. Boyd owns a pedestrian 4.25 FIP and 1.32 WHIP in 14 starts spanning 70 1/3 innings this season. While the Tigers bullpen has held up well this season, I do think regression is on the way, noting they've logged 30 innings over the last seven games alone and 303 1/3 innings on the season. That's a full 59 innings more than Texas' relief corps. Speaking of the Rangers 'pen, it has been terrific lately, posting a 2.82 ERA and 1.08 WHIP over the last seven games. Andrew Heaney will start for the Rangers on Monday. He's been good but certainly not great this season. With that being said, he has managed to hold eight straight opponents to three earned runs or less. For whatever reason, the Rangers bats seem to come alive for Heaney here at home, plating double-digit run totals in four of his seven home outings this season. Take Texas -1.5 runs (8*). |
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06-25-23 | Astros v. Dodgers UNDER 8.5 | 6-5 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Los Angeles at 7:10 pm et on Sunday. These two teams were involved in a high-scoring affair last night as the Dodgers rallied for an 8-7 victory. I expect a much lower-scoring contest on Sunday as Houston looks to salvage the finale of this three-game series. Hunter Brown will get the start for the Astros. He's coming off a poor outing against the Mets as he allowed six earned runs in just 5 2/3 innings of work. On a positive note, he has worked at least into the sixth inning in six of his last seven starts. He'll also be making his fourth straight start on full rest (five days). The Astros bullpen has admittedly struggled lately but I do think it's only a matter of time before they turn it around, noting they entered last night's contest sporting a 3.34 ERA and 1.20 WHIP on the road this season. Like Brown, Tony Gonsolin is coming off a rocky outing last time out, yielding seven earned runs over 5 2/3 innings. He still owns a 2.92 ERA and 1.01 WHIP this season. The right hander has posted a 4.11 FIP, allowing onlyi 58-of-217 batters to reach base. The Dodgers bullpen has slowly been rounding back into form, entering Saturday's contest with a 4.25 ERA and 1.18 WHIP over the last seven contests. On the season, they've converted 19 saves while blowing only seven. Take the under (8*). |
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06-24-23 | Astros v. Dodgers OVER 8.5 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
National League Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Los Angeles at 7:15 pm et on Saturday. We saw a low-scoring game to open this series last night but I expect a different story to unfold on Saturday. Ronel Blanco will take the ball for the visiting Astros. While he's posted terrific minor league numbers for stretches over the course of his career, that hasn't translated to success at the big league level. Last season, Blanco recorded a 5.32 FIP and 1.90 WHIP in very limited work with the Astros, pitching just 6 1/3 innings. So far this season, he's logged 29 innings with the big club, posting a 5.58 FIP and 1.69 WHIP. Of the 132 batters he has faced, 50 have reached base. All told, Blanco has allowed 10.4 hits and 5.0 walks per nine innings at the major league level. Behind Blanco is an Astros bullpen that entered last night's contest sporting a collective 6.23 ERA and 1.69 WHIP over the last seven games. Rookie Bobby Miller will counter for Los Angeles. After a red hot start to the campaign, he was brought back to Earth against the Giants last time out, yielding seven earned runs in 5 2/3 innings. I can't help but think more regression is coming for Miller, noting that he has held opponents to only 6.0 hits and 0.3 home runs per nine innings this season. At the Triple-A level earlier this season, Miller posted a 5.65 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 14 1/3 innings, allowing twice as many home runs (2) in around half the number of innings that he has at the major league level. The Dodgers 'pen entered last night's game with a collective 6.07 ERA and 1.42 WHIP over the last seven contests with only six converted saves and six blown. The Astros offense has been hit-or-miss lately but has shown a fairly strong bounce-back pattern lately, scoring 3, 7, 1, 4, 10 and 2 runs over their last six games. Take the over (10*). |
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06-23-23 | Astros v. Dodgers UNDER 8.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Friday. This game features a sneaky-good starting pitching matchup as J.P. France takes the ball for the Astros against rookie Emmet Sheehan of the Dodgers. France's early big league returns have been somewhat mixed as he has posted a 4.94 FIP and 1.20 WHIP. With that said, he has settled in lately, working at least into the sixth inning in five straight starts entering Friday's contest. Last time out he held a surging Reds lineup to only two earned runs in 6 2/3 innings. Emmet Sheehan absolutely lit it up at the Double-A level before getting the call to the big club and proceeded to toss six shutout innings against the Giants last weekend. In the minors, Sheehan had recorded a 1.86 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in 53 1/3 innings before getting the call to the majors. Only 52 of the 211 batters he had faced managed to reach base. Both bullpens have struggled lately and in the case of the Dodgers has been a general disappointment this season. With that said, both teams are coming off an off day on Thursday meaning it should be all hands on deck for this one and I believe both starters are capable of working deep into the game pitching on full or extended rest. Take the under (8*). |
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06-23-23 | Braves -150 v. Reds | Top | 10-11 | Loss | -150 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
Non-Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Atlanta over Cincinnati at 6:40 pm et on Friday. Something has to give as the red hot Braves and Reds match up in Cincinnati on Friday. Atlanta has reeled off eight straight wins following yesterday's extra innings victory in Philadelphia. Cincinnati is riding an 11-game winning streak after a sweep of the lowly Rockies. Here, I look for the Braves to continue their winning ways as they hand the ball to impressive rookie A.J. Smith-Shawver against Luke Weaver of the Reds. Atlanta appears to have another good one in Smith-Shawver. He has made two big league starts this season, posting a lofty 4.47 FIP but an impressive 0.98 WHIP. That FIP is a little inflated after he gave up a pair of home runs in an 8-3 win over the Rockies last time out. Note that Smith-Shawver had allowed just one home run in 33 innings of work at the minor league level earlier this season. In those minor league outings he posted a sparkling 1.09 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. It's been a much different story for Luke Weaver. He checks in sporting a 5.48 FIP and 1.54 WHIP in 11 starts spanning 57 innings this season. On Friday, he'll be starting on short rest (four days) after getting lit up for 10 hits and five earned runs in five innings against the Astros last time out. Great American Ballpark hasn't been a good fit as he has logged a 7.27 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in five starts covering a span of 26 innings here this season. While the two bullpens are virtually a wash, it's worth noting that the Reds relief corps is approaching 300 combined innings pitched this season. That's nearly 30 innings more than that of the Braves. Atlanta has the benefit of having had two of the last four days off due to a rain out earlier this week. Take Atlanta (10*). |
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06-22-23 | Mariners +105 v. Yankees | 10-2 | Win | 105 | 11 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle over New York at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Yankees have taken the first two games of this series, successfully bouncing back following a sweep at the hands of the Red Sox last weekend. I look for the Mariners to answer back on Thursday as they send Bryan Woo to the mound against Domingo German. Woo is anything but a household name but has impressed in three big league starts this season, posting a 3.68 FIP and 1.30 WHIP. Last time out he struck out a career-high nine batters over just 5 2/3 innings in a 3-2 victory over the White Sox. Note that Woo got the call-up after logging a 2.05 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in 44 innings pitched at the Double-A level earlier this season. While pitching at Yankees Stadium can be daunting for an unseasoned starter, I do think Woo has had enough time to get the nerves out (note that he was tagged for six earned runs in just two innings in Texas in his 'Welcome to the Show' moment earlier this month). Behind Woo is a Mariners bullpen that continues to pitch well. Seattle's relief corps has combined to post a 2.53 ERA and 1.22 WHIP over the last seven games. Domingo German has had an up-and-down campaign to this point. While he has managed to record an impressive 1.09 WHIP, his 4.64 FIP tells a much different story. That low WHIP has a lot to do with good fortune as he's allowed just 6.8 hits per nine innings. Note that German has never allowed fewer than 7.9 hits per nine innings in a full big league season. The Yankees prevailed by a 10-4 score in German's lone previous start against Seattle this year, that coming back on May 29th. Keep in mind, the Mariners did plate four earned runs on seven hits while walking three times and striking out on only four occasions over 6 1/3 innings. New York's bullpen has been somewhat overworked this season - certainly in comparison with that of the Mariners (the Yankees have logged just shy of 37 more bullpen innings this season). Yankee relievers have combined to post a 5.04 ERA and 1.24 WHIP over the last seven contests. Here at home they've converted only nine saves while blowing seven. Take Seattle (8*). |
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06-21-23 | Dodgers v. Angels -144 | 2-0 | Loss | -144 | 12 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on the Angels over the Dodgers at 9:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Dodgers took the opener of this brief two-game series by a 2-0 score behind another solid outing from Clayton Kershaw last night. I expect the Angels to bounce back on Wednesday as they hand the ball to Shohei Ohtani against Michael Grove of the Dodgers. Grove has posted terrific numbers at the minor league level over the last couple of seasons. It hasn't translated to success in the bigs, however. Last season, Grove logged a 5.16 FIP and 1.43 WHIP in 29 1/3 innings of work with the Dodgers. So far this year, he has pitched 30 innings with the big club, recording a 5.75 FIP and 1.60 WHIP. Of the 137 batters he has faced, 49 have managed to reach base. Behind Grove is a Dodgers bullpen that continues to struggle, having posted a collective 5.01 ERA and 1.37 WHIP on the season with those numbers ballooning to 7.37 and 1.48, respectively, over the last seven games. Shohei Ohtani hasn't been able to match the Cy Young Award-caliber numbers he posted last season but has still been effective this season, logging a 4.07 FIP and 1.05 WHIP. His command hasn't quite been there with his walks issued up considerably over last year. With that being said, he has limited two of his last three opponents to just a single walk (working six innings in both of those contests). He'll have the advantage of facing the Dodgers for the first time on Wednesday. As I've noted on multiple occasions this season, the Angels bullpen has impressed, recording a collective 3.59 ERA and 1.28 WHIP with 27 saves converted and only 12 blown. They've also logged just 20 innings over the last seven games, leaving them in good position on Wednesday. Take the Angels (8*). |
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06-21-23 | Red Sox v. Twins -120 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
A.L. Non-Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Minnesota over Boston at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Red Sox have blasted the Twins in the first two games of this series as Minnesota's struggles continue having dropped five of its last six contests. I look for the Twins to finally answer back on Wednesday as they send Sonny Gray to the hill against Garrett Whitlock. Whitlock has posted solid overall numbers this season but certainly isn't immune to shaky outings. Note that he has given up at least four earned runs in three of his seven starts this season. He checks in having allowed just three earned runs over his last two starts but hasn't held more than two straight opponents to three earned runs or fewer since May of last year. Sonny Gray didn't have his best stuff last time out, lasting only four earned runs against the Tigers in an eventual 8-4 loss. He still owns a stellar 2.56 FIP and 1.28 WHIP in 14 starts spanning 76 innings of work this season. In eight home outings he has logged a 1.96 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. Gray gave up just one earned run over five innings in his lone start against Boston last season but the Twins lost that game by a 5-4 score. The two bullpens are a virtual wash in this matchup although it is worth noting that Minnesota entered last night's game having logged 28 2/3 innings fewer in relief this season, theoretically leaving that group fresher as we approach the final week of June. Take Minnesota (10*). |
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06-20-23 | Mets v. Astros -127 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 23 h 15 m | Show |
Interleague Game of the Week. My selection is on Houston over New York at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. This should be an emotionally-charged contest on Tuesday in Houston as Justin Verlander returns to Minute Maid Park to face his former team. The Mets jumped all over Astros rookie Hunter Brown last night but I expect a different story to unfold against Framber Valdez on Tuesday. Valdez checks in sporting a sparkling 2.84 FIP and 1.03 WHIP in 14 starts spanning 91 innings of work this season. He faced the Mets once last season, tossing eight shutout innings in a 9-1 victory in Queens. Verlander is having a very un-Verlander like season, posting a 4.43 FIP and 1.22 WHIP in 45 innings. His hits, home runs and walks allowed per nine innings are way up while his strikeouts are down considerably compared to his Cy Young Award-winning 2022 campaign. Whether he's 100% healthy or not is certainly up for debate. I do expect the slumping Astros to get to him on Tuesday. The bullpens are virtually a wash in this matchup but I do like the fact that Houston's 'pen entered last night's game having logged a collective 24 innings fewer than New York's this season. Interestingly, the Astros relief corps entered this series with a 3.10 ERA and 1.13 WHIP along with five saves converted and only one blown in just north of 80 innings pitched in Interleague play this season. Take Houston (10*). |
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06-19-23 | Cubs -117 v. Pirates | Top | 8-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
N.L. Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Chicago over Pittsburgh at 7:05 pm et on Monday. The Cubs failed to complete the sweep of the Orioles yesterday, snapping their five-game winning streak in the process. I look for them to bounce back on Monday as they hand the ball to Drew Smyly against Osvaldo Bido of the Pirates in a rematch of a meeting last week. Smyly doesn't own terrific career numbers against the Pirates but he should he pleased to be making this start in Pittsburgh. Note that he has faced the Pirates three times at PNC Park, allowing just four earned runs including only one home run in 16 innings. Smyly's numbers this season are in line with the ones he posted last year, logging a 4.33 FIP and 1.20 WHIP. I do think we'll see him pitch better than he did against the Pirates last week, when he yielded five earned runs over six innings. Osvaldo Bido gets the call for Pittsburgh out of necessity only. He actually held up well in his big league debut against the Cubs last week, allowing just one earned run over four innings. Note that he's been in the Pirates organization since 2017 so the fact that he's just now getting a chance in the Show is telling in my opinion. At the Triple-A level this season he had posted a 4.55 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in 55 1/3 innings of work. Only once previously has he recorded an ERA lower than four in a minor league campaign and that was back in 2019 when he pitched at the Single-A and A+ levels. The bullpens are virtually a was on the season but the Cubs relief corps has been marginally better over the last seven games (Pittsburgh's 'pen entered yesterday's contest sporting a collective 9.85 ERA and 1.95 WHIP over that stretch). I do like the fact that Chicago didn't use two of its most effective relievers in Mark Leiter Jr. and Adbert Alzolay in yesterday's game. The Pirates are missing a key late inning arm in Jose Hernandez as he's currently on the I.L. Take Chicago (10*). |
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06-18-23 | White Sox v. Mariners -1.5 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 131 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
Non-Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Seattle -1.5 runs over Chicago at 4:10 pm et on Saturday. These two teams have split the first two games of this series but I look for the Mariners to answer back in Sunday's series finale. Lance Lynn will get another turn in the starting rotation for the White Sox, despite his struggles. Lynn has been lit up in his last two outings and will now start on short rest (four days') for a third consecutive outing. Lynn has seen his FIP balloon to 5.43 and his WHIP to 1.57 on the campaign. Mariners rookie Bryce Miller got off to a terrific start this season before getting roughed up by the Yankees and Rangers in consecutive outings. He still owns a solid 3.36 FIP and 0.93 WHIP in eight starts this season, spanning 44 1/3 innings. The Mariners bullpen has logged a collective 2.28 ERA and 1.19 WHIP over the last seven contests. Meanwhile, the White Sox 'pen has posted a 4.55 ERA and 1.41 WHIP over the same stretch. In fact, Chicago has blown four saves over the last seven games alone. Take Seattle -1.5 runs (10*). |
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06-17-23 | Guardians -123 v. Diamondbacks | 3-6 | Loss | -123 | 14 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland over Arizona at 10:10 pm et on Saturday. The Diamondbacks took the opener of this series last night as Zac Gallen turned in another fine pitching performance in an eventual 5-1 victory. I look for a different story to unfold on Saturday as Cleveland hands the ball to its own ace, Shane Bieber, against Tommy Henry of Arizona. Bieber hasn't exactly posted Cy Young Award-caliber numbers this season but has been solid nonetheless, logging a 3.82 FIP and 1.22 WHIP in 14 starts spanning 87 2/3 innings of work. He was lights out over seven innings despite pitching on short rest (four days) in his most recent outing. Here, he'll be back on regular rest against a D'Backs team that he handled without much trouble last season, allowing two earned runs over six innings. Tommy Henry may not be long for a big league rotation given the results he's posted over the last season-plus. Henry sports a 5.62 FIP and 1.38 WHIP in 50 innings this season after posting a 5.88 FIP and 1.45 WHIP in 47 innings last year. Note that he'll be starting on just four days' rest on Saturday. The last time we saw him do that he was tagged for four earned runs in just 4 2/3 innings against the lowly A's on May 16th. The Guardians hold a significant edge in terms of the bullpens, entering last night's action sporting a collective 1.99 ERA and 1.14 WHIP over the last seven contests. Arizona's 'pen entered Friday's action having recorded a 4.71 ERA and 1.43 WHIP over the same stretch. Take Cleveland (8*). |
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06-16-23 | Reds v. Astros UNDER 9 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cincinnati and Houston at 8:10 pm et on Friday. Two unheralded starters will match up as the Reds and Astros do battle in the opener of their three-game series on Friday. I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair than most. Andrew Abbott has battled command issues but has still yet to allow an earned run in his first two big league starts, logging 11 2/3 innings of six-hit ball. Abbott has posted a 3.36 FIP and 1.11 WHIP in those two outings, seemingly picking up where he left off after recording a 2.50 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in 54 innings of work at the minor league level. It's worth mentioning that the Astros have walked only 212 times as a team this season, among the lowest totals in the majors. Behind Abbott is a Reds bullpen that enjoyed an off day on Thursday and has been better than expected this season, recording a collective 3.80 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. On the road, Cincinnati has converted 14 saves while blowing only five. J.P. France will take the ball for Houston. He's had an up-and-down start to his big league career and is coming off an outing in which he issued an uncharacteristic six walks against the Guardians. With that said, he has worked at least into the sixth inning in four straight starts. The Reds just got finished beating up on one of the worst pitching staffs in baseball in Kansas City but should find the going a little tougher in Houston. Note that the Astros bullpen has been terrific this season, posting a collective 3.25 ERA and 1.27 WHIP with 17 saves converted and only seven blown. Take the under (10*). |
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06-15-23 | Guardians +124 v. Padres | Top | 8-6 | Win | 124 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
Interleague Game of the Month. My selection is on Cleveland over San Diego at 8:40 pm et on Thursday. The Padres have won the first two games of this series and are playing some of their best baseball of the season right now but I'm not necessarily ready to buy in. Logan Allen will get the start for the visiting Guardians as they look to avoid the sweep in this three-game interleague series. Allen didn't pitch particularly well but hung in there and lasted six innings against the Astros in an eventual 10-9 victory last time out. He has posted respectable numbers this season with a 3.43 FIP and 1.39 WHIP through nine starts spanning 51 2/3 innings. Ryan Weathers will counter for the Padres as they push Yu Darvish back a day to face the Rays on Friday. Weathers owns a 4.93 ERA on the campaign and probably hasn't even been as good as that lofty number, posting a 5.26 FIP and 1.49 WHIP. He's unlikely to work deep into this game as he pitches on just four days' rest (even though he did throw only 40+ pitches against the Rockies last time out). Note that the Padres bullpen enters this game sporting a collective 4.94 ERA And 1.31 WHIP over the last seven contests. At home this season, San Diego has only converted five saves while blowing four. The Guardians on the other hand check in with a 1.82 bullpen ERA and 1.01 WHIP over their last seven games. Cleveland's relief corps has been among the best in baseball this season, logging a 3.02 ERA and 1.16 WHIP with 23 saves converted and 13 blown. Take Cleveland (10*). |
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06-15-23 | Phillies v. Diamondbacks OVER 9 | 5-4 | Push | 0 | 7 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and Arizona at 3:40 pm et on Thursday. After a pair of wild, high-scoring affairs to open this series we saw the two offenses take a bit of a breather last night. I expect the scoring to pick back up on Thursday afternoon as Philadelphia sends Aaron Nola to the hill against Ryne Nelson of Arizona. Nola has faced the D'Backs four times in his career, posting a lofty 8.41 ERA and 1.67 WHIP with those four contests totalling 13, 9, 13 and 15 runs. While the right-hander has posted solid overall numbers this season, his recent results haven't been stellar as he has allowed at least four earned runs in three of his last four outings. Note that he'll be making his third consecutive start on short rest (four days) here. Nelson has not looked comfortable at all pitching at Chase Field this season, logging a 6.62 ERA and 1.70 WHIP in seven home starts. He has generally struggled against teams getting a second (or third, or fourth) look at him over the course of his young career. Here, the Phillies will be seeing him for the second time this season. Note that Nelson owns a 4.67 FIP and 1.46 WHIP this season with 98 of the 289 batters he has faced managing to reach base. Neither bullpen brings much confidence into this contest with the Phillies relief corps having posted a collective 8.34 ERA and 1.72 WHIP over the last seven games and the D'Backs 'pen logging a 5.19 ERA and 1.46 WHIP over the same stretch. Take the over (8*). |
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06-14-23 | Angels v. Rangers OVER 9.5 | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
A.L. West Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Texas at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. We've seen plenty of offense in the first two games of this series and I expect more of the same on Wednesday as the Angels send Reid Detmers to the mound against Andrew Heaney of the Rangers. Detmers has been reasonably effective for the Halos so far this season, logging a 3.40 FIP, however he hasn't shown the ability to work deep into games thanks in large part to a lofty 1.51 WHIP. On three previous occasions he has come off a team victory in his most recent start and in those three outings he allowed 11 earned runs in 14 1/3 innings of work. Detmers faced the Rangers once previously this season, allowing three earned runs on seven hits over just four innings in a 10-1 home defeat. While much has been made of the overworked and undermanned nature of the Rangers bullpen, the Angels 'pen has perhaps labored even more lately, logging a collective 30.0 innings over the last seven games and no having been afforded a day off since June 5th. Andrew Heaney has posted fairly typical numbers so far this season but has struggled to settle in here at Globe Life Field, posting a 5.67 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in seven home outings. His 4.80 FIP and 1.25 WHIP certainly leave something to be desired and I suspect he'll have his hands full with a red hot Angels offense that has produced just shy of 6.0 runs per game over the last week. The Rangers bullpen allowed the Halos to pull away in the ninth inning last night. Their relief corps got off to a terrific start this season but have now seen their collective ERA rise to 4.57 and their FIP to 1.26. On the season, Texas has only converted 12 saves while blowing 10. Take the over (10*). |
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06-13-23 | Angels v. Rangers UNDER 9.5 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -120 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Texas at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a wild, high-scoring extra innings affair to open this series last night as the Angels rallied for a 9-6 victory. I expect a much different story to unfold on Tuesday. Jaime Barria will get the start for the visiting Angels. He's made 14 appearances but only three starts for the Halos this season and has pitched well, logging a 3.04 FIP and 0.97 WHIP in 39 innings of work. Barria should be happy to see the Rangers in the opposing dugout as he owns a career 3.27 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in 10 previous starts against them. The Angels bullpen continues to impress. Last night, after digging an early 5-1 hole, Los Angeles' pitching staff hung tough and ultimately limited the Rangers to only one run over the final nine innings. The Halos relief corps entered last night's contest sporting a collective 0.68 ERA and 0.99 WHIP over the last seven games. It sounds like the Rangers are leaning toward giving Cody Bradford his third big league start on Tuesday (with Jon Gray sidelined due to a blister). The results have been mixed in Bradford's first two starts but he did shake off the nerves to hold the Orioles to only two earned runs over five innings last time out. He had made 10 starts previously at the Triple-A level, recording a 1.82 ERA and 0.93 WHIP. The Rangers bullpen has been good but not great this season but did enter Monday's action sporting a collective 1.16 WHIP in 99 innings pitched at home and has been 'underworked' in the big picture at least, logging a combined 197 innings this season (it did eclipse the 200-inning mark in last night's marathon). Take the under (8*). |
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06-12-23 | Angels v. Rangers -150 | Top | 9-6 | Loss | -150 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
A.L. Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Texas over Los Angeles at 8:05 pm et on Monday. The Angels took two of three games from the Mariners over the weekend and certainly enter this series playing well. I think they're going to be outmatched on Monday, however, as they send Tyler Anderson to the hill against Dane Dunning of the Rangers. Anderson has seen his FIP rise to 5.14 and his WHIP to 1.60 after allowing 10 earned runs in nine innings in his last two starts. He's allowing a whopping 10.0 hits and 4.4 walks per nine innings this season and while he's done a good job of keeping the ball in the park (1.0 home runs allowed per nine innings) that's not enough to minimize the damage, especially when you're striking out only 5.9 batters per nine frames. The Angels bullpen has been terrific but is approaching 'overworked' territory in my opinion as their relief corps eclipses 240 innings on the season. Dane Dunning is coming off a couple of rough outings of his own, giving up an uncharacteristic three home runs in his most recent start. Still, he owns a solid 3.72 FIP and 1.10 WHIP in 14 starts including six starts this season. While the Rangers bullpen has been up and down, it has logged a collective 1.16 WHIP in 99 innings of work here at home. In stark contrast to the Angels 'pen, the Rangers relief corps has only been called into action for 192 1/3 innings on the campaign. Take Texas (10*). |
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06-11-23 | Cubs v. Giants -135 | 3-13 | Win | 100 | 7 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Francisco over Chicago at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. The Cubs have taken a pair of low-scoring affairs to open this series but I look for the Giants to answer back on Sunday. Hayden Wesneski will get the start for Chicago. He's had an up-and-down start to the season but perhaps with more downs than ups, logging a 5.64 FIP and 1.22 WHIP. In his return to the starting rotation last time out he labored through 4 2/3 innings in an eventual 7-4 loss to the Angels in Anaheim. I'm generally high on the Cubs bullpen - at least a couple of their key relief arms anyway - but the numbers indicate otherwise as they've recorded a collective 4.85 ERA and 1.42 WHIP on the road this season (entering last night's action). John Brebbia will get another spot start for the Giants. He's been effective in 27 appearances, including six starts this season, posting a 2.60 FIP and 1.05 WHIP. Of course any time Brebbia starts, the Giants bullpen is key as he's unlikely to work deep into the contest. Note that San Francisco's relief corps has logged a 1.93 ERA and 0.86 WHIP over the last seven games (also entering last night's action). Take San Francisco (8*). |
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06-10-23 | A's v. Brewers OVER 9 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
Interleague Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Oakland and Milwaukee at 4:10 pm et on Saturday. The A's saw their five-game 'over' streak come to an end in last night's series-opener in Milwaukee but Oakland did manage to stun the Brewers for its third straight victory. I'm anticipating a higher-scoring affair on Saturday as the A's hand the ball to Paul Blackburn against Julio Teheran of the Brewers. Blackburn has posted a 4.05 FIP and 1.67 WHIP through two starts, spanning nine innings of work. Of the 42 batters he has faced, 15 have reached base. More concerning is the fact that Blackburn had struggled mightily at the Triple-A level, logging a 7.50 ERA and 2.17 WHIP in six outings covering a span of 18 innings. Of the 90 batters he faced in the minors, 39 managed to reach base. Behind Blackburn is an A's bullpen that has posted a collective 6.40 ERA and 1.72 WHIP on the road this season, blowing five saves while converting only four (entering last night's action). Veteran Julio Teheran has made two big league starts this season and has pitched surprisingly well, recording a 3.97 FIP and 0.92 WHIP. That's in stark contrast to his performance at the Triple-A level where he had posted a 5.62 ERA and 1.68 WHIP in the Padres organization. The A's have been consistently applying pressure on opposing pitching staffs over the last week, plating 5, 4, 11, 9 and 5 runs over their last five contests. As bad as they've been overall this season, they are still averaging just north of 4.0 runs per game away from home. They may be catching the Brewers bullpen at the right time as Milwaukee relievers have combined to post a 5.56 ERA and 1.28 WHIP over the last seven contests (entering last night's action). Take the over (10*). |
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06-09-23 | Cubs +105 v. Giants | 3-2 | Win | 105 | 14 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago over San Francisco at 10:15 pm et on Friday. The Cubs haven't won a game since Marcus Stroman last took the ball last Sunday in San Diego. I look for the right-hander to help them snap their skid on Friday as they open a series in San Francisco. Stroman has been terrific so far this season, logging a 3.49 FIP and 1.00 WHIP, allowing only 81-of-309 batters he has faced to reach base. His two outings against the Giants last season were a mixed bag but he did toss six shutout innings in his lone start here in San Francisco. The Cubs bullpen has struggled as a whole but does boast a few redeemable arms that should be in line to pitch on Friday. On a positive note, Chicago's 'pen has only been called into action for 18 2/3 innings over the last seven games. In stark contrast, the Giants bullpen has been severely overworked, logging a collective 29 2/3 innings over the last seven games and 241 innings this season. Anthony DeSclafani will get the start for the Giants on Friday. While he does own solid overall numbers on the season, they've been on the rise lately as he has allowed 12 earned runs over his last three outings, covering a span of 15 innings. The Giants have only managed to win two of his last six starts. Take Chicago (8*). |
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06-08-23 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Reds | Top | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 15 h 17 m | Show |
National League Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles -1.5 runs over Cincinnati at 12:35 pm et on Thursday. Dodgers starter Clayton Kershaw will be pleased to see the Reds in the opposing dugout on Thursday as he has owned them for years, allowing just four earned runs over 34 innings in his last five starts against them with the Dodgers going a perfect 5-0 in those contests. The fact that Kershaw will be starting on just four days' rest might be somewhat concerning but Los Angeles has gone 3-1 with the veteran lefty starting on short rest this season, with all three of those victories coming by at least four runs. Kershaw has of course been the picture of consistency throughout his career and this season has been no different as he owns a 3.56 FIP and 1.10 WHIP. It's a much different story for his counterpart on Thursday, Graham Ashcraft of the Reds. The right-hander checks in sporting a 5.03 FIP and 1.60 WHIP in 62 1/3 innings of work. He's given up a staggering 27 earned runs over his last four outings. The Dodgers bullpen has been shockingly bad so far this season but I still consider their relief corps to be a positive regression candidate moving forward. The opposite could be said of the Reds, noting that Cincinnati's 'pen entered last night's action with a collective 3.91 ERA and 1.32 WHIP this season. Interestingly, four of the Reds eight blown saves this season have come in afternoon games. Take Los Angeles -1.5 runs (10*). |
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06-07-23 | Mariners +104 v. Padres | 3-10 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle over San Diego at 4:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Mariners are a team I want to bet on in the coming weeks while the Padres look like a solid fade moving forward. Here, we can back Seattle at an underdog price (at the time of writing) with a significant edge in terms of the starting pitching matchup. George Kirby will take the ball for the Mariners. He has posted Cy Young Award-caliber numbers so far this season, logging a 3.27 FIP and 1.01 WHIP. He'll have the benefit of starting on six days' rest on Wednesday after shutting the Yankees down over eight shutout innings last week. Michael Wacha will counter for the Padres. He was brought back to Earth in his most recent start, lasting only 4 2/3 innings in a loss to the Cubs. With a 3.72 FIP and 1.15 WHIP I do feel that Wacha is in line for some regression, noting that he hasn't posted a full-season FIP lower than 4.14 since 2017. A number of current Mariners hitters have enjoyed considerable success against Wacha as well, including Teoscar Hernandez and Ty France who are a combined 14-for-22 against the right-hander. The Padres bullpen has outpaced that of the Mariners lately but are entering 'overworked' territory, having not had a day off since May 29th. Seattle's 'pen still owns solid numbers on the season with a 3.64 ERA and 1.33 WHIP, converting 15 saves while blowing only seven. Take Seattle (8*). |
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06-06-23 | Diamondbacks v. Nationals OVER 9.5 | Top | 10-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
Non-Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and Washington at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. These two teams met for a three-game series in Arizona back in early May and two of those contests flew 'over' the total, reaching 15 and 17 runs. I'm anticipating a similarly high-scoring start to this series in Washington on Tuesday. Tommy Henry will take the ball for the visiting Diamondbacks. He had his best outing of the young season last time out as he tossed seven shutout innings against the Rockies. That was at home though. Henry has logged a 5.74 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in three road starts. For the season, Henry sports a 5.21 FIP and 1.24 WHIP, allowing 52-of-167 batters he has faced to reach base. That coming after he posted a 5.88 FIP and 1.45 WHIP in 47 big league innings last year. Jake Irvin will counter for Washington on Tuesday. He owns a 5.80 FIP and 1.63 WHIP on the season and has worked beyond the fifth inning only once in six starts so far. That doesn't bode well as the Nationals bullpen has recorded a collective 6.65 ERA and 1.75 WHIP over the last seven contests. On the season, Washington has converted only eight saves while also blowing eight here at home. Going back to Irvin, he has faced 124 batters with 47 of them managing to reach base. Arizona is capable of applying plenty of pressure on opposing pitchers when reaching base, having already racked up 55 stolen bases this season. Take the over (10*). |
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06-05-23 | Astros +110 v. Blue Jays | Top | 11-4 | Win | 110 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
American League Game of the Month. My selection is on Houston over Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Monday. The Blue Jays are coming off an impressive three-game sweep of the Mets in Queens over the weekend but I look for their run of success to come to an end on Monday as they return home to host the Astros. Houston checks in off a 2-1 loss against the Angels yesterday, failing to complete the four-game sweep of its division rival. Here, I'm confident we'll see the Astros bounce back against Blue Jays starter Alek Manoah, who continues to grind through a miserable campaign. Manoah last pitched last Wednesday and showed no signs of turning things around, lasting only four innings in an eventual 4-2 defeat. Now Manoah will have to start on short rest (four days) having posted a lofty 6.27 FIP and 1.77 WHIP in 12 starts spanning 57 2/3 innings of work this season. While the Jays 'pen behind Manoah has been terrific lately, I'm not sure it will be enough on this night. Brandon Bielak will get the start for the visiting Astros. He got shelled in his first couple of big league starts this season but has since settled down, allowing only 13 hits and six earned runs in his last three starts, spanning 17 1/3 innings. While Bielak certainly hasn't been as good as his 3.19 ERA indicates (he's posted a 5.15 FIP and 1.45 WHIP), I do think he can be effective against the up-and-down Blue Jays. While the Astros bullpen has struggled lately, it still owns a collective 3.30 ERA and 1.26 WHIP this season with 16 saves converted and only five blown. Take Houston (10*). |
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06-04-23 | Cubs -104 v. Padres | 7-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago over San Diego at 5:30 pm et on Sunday. We've made a bit of a habit of fading Padres starter Ryan Weathers and we'll do the same here as the Cubs look to bounce back from last night's shutout loss in San Diego. Marcus Stroman has impressed for Chicago this season, logging a 3.55 FIP and 0.99 WHIP in 12 starts spanning 73 innings of work. While the Cubs bullpen behind him has struggled lately, this is still a relief corps I do have some faith in and the majority of their key arms should be in line to work on Sunday. Weathers checks in with a 4.48 FIP and 1.37 WHIP. The Padres did win his most recent start but that was really no thanks to Weathers as he allowed three earned runs on seven hits over just four innings against the Marlins. While the Padres bullpen has posted solid numbers overall, it has had a tough time closing out games, already blowing 10 saves this season. Here at home, San Diego has converted four saves while blowing four as well. Take Chicago (8*). |
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06-03-23 | Yankees -122 v. Dodgers | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Los Angeles at 7:15 pm et on Saturday. The Dodgers took the opener of this series last night but I look for New York to answer back on Saturday. Gerrit Cole will take the ball for the visiting Yankees. He's been roughed up in his last two outings but still owns terrific overall numbers this season with a 3.69 FIP and 1.14 WHIP. I can't help but feel the Dodgers bats are in for some regression after scoring six runs or more in six straight games heading into this contest. Los Angeles will counter with Michael Grove. He'll be making his fifth start this season and the results have been a mixed bag. Grove owns an ugly 8.44 ERA but has been better than that lofty number, sporting a 4.65 FIP. That's not saying he's pitched well, however, noting that he checks in with a 1.75 WHIP. As I noted in my analysis of last night's game, the bullpens are virtually a wash in this matchup, however, the Yankees 'pen has been pitching far better recent, entering last night's contest with a collective 1.82 ERA and 1.01 WHIP over the last seven games while the Dodgers 'pen recorded an ERA north of five over the same stretch. Take New York (8*). |
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06-02-23 | Yankees v. Dodgers -136 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 15 h 45 m | Show |
Interleague Game of the Week. My selection is on Los Angeles over New York at 10:10 pm et on Friday. The Dodgers dropped their most recent contest in Washington but I look for them to rebound in Friday's series-opener against the Yankees. New York will give the start to Luis Severino. He checks in sporting a sparkling 1.59 ERA in two starts, spanning 11 1/3 innings. He hasn't been quite as sharp as that number indicates, however, as he has recorded a 3.73 FIP. In two minor league rehab outings, Severino logged a 4.05 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in 6 2/3 innings. Clayton Kershaw will counter for Los Angeles. He'll be looking to bounce back after a string of rough outings but still owns a 3.42 FIP and 1.14 WHIP in 11 outings spanning 62 1/3 innings this season. He'll be making his second straight on a full five days' rest. The Yankees bullpen appears to have the edge although it is worth noting that the Dodgers bullpen has been significantly stronger at home than on the road, logging a collective 3.14 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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06-02-23 | Mariners -113 v. Rangers | 0-2 | Loss | -113 | 13 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle over Texas at 8:05 pm et on Friday. Both of these teams enjoyed a day off yesterday but will be back at it for the start of this three-game divisional series on Friday. The Mariners will hand the ball to Luis Castillo. He checks in sporting a 2.93 FIP and 0.99 WHIP this season. Over his last two outings he's tossed 12 shutout innings, striking out 18 and walking only four along the way. Jon Gray will counter for Texas. He checks in sporting a 2.81 ERA but I don't think he's been quite as good as that ERA indicates, recording a 4.64 FIP in 10 starts, spanning 57 2/3 innings of work this season. There's no question Gray has been terrific over his last seven outings but I do think he's running out of real estate in his current five-start undefeated streak. Prior to that he owned a 1-11 team record over his last 12 outings. The two bullpens are virtually a wash, although it is worth noting that Texas has had a bit of a tough time closing out games this season, converting 10 saves but also blowing eight. Take Seattle (8*). |
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06-01-23 | Reds v. Red Sox UNDER 9.5 | 2-8 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cincinnati and Boston at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. The Reds had their four-game 'over' streak snapped in last night's 5-4 victory here in Boston. I look for a lower-scoring affair than most are expecting in Thursday's series-finale. Reds starter Hunter Greene's most recent outing went 'over' the total but it had everything to do with the Cincinnati offense as it rolled to a 9-0 victory over the Cubs. Greene actually worked six hitless frames in that victory, striking out 11 along the way. That marked his second straight start in which he recorded double-digit strikeouts. Greene has lowered his FIP to 3.62 and his WHIP to a still-lofty 1.38. It's worth noting that he should be in line for some regression to the mean in terms of hits allowed, noting he has given up 8.8 hits per nine innings this season after allowing just 7.4 in 125 2/3 innings last year. Chris Sale will counter for Boston. He checks in sporting a 3.90 FIP and 1.16 WHIP in 10 starts spanning 55 1/3 innings of work this season. Sale brings excellent form into this start having allowed just 10 hits and four earned runs in his last three outings, covering a span of 20 innings. The two bullpens have exceeded expectations this season. While the Reds 'pen has suffered a bit of regression lately, logging an ERA north of five over the last seven games, it has also converted four saves without a single blown over that stretch. Between the two clubs, they've combined to convert 31 saves while blowing only 13. Take the under (8*). |
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05-31-23 | Yankees v. Mariners -133 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 15 h 7 m | Show |
American League Game of the Week. My selection is on Seattle over New York at 9:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Yankees have taken the first two games in this series in blowout fashion but I look for the Mariners to answer back on Wednesday. Clarke Schmidt has turned things around to a certain extent for the Yankees over the last couple of starts, allowing just three earned runs in 10 innings of work. He still owns a 4.25 FIP and 1.60 WHIP on the season. Of the 229 batters he has faced, 82 have reached base. The Mariners will counter with George Kirby. He got shelled in his most recent outing. It happens to the best of pitchers. That doesn't change the fact that he has pitched well this season, logging a 3.49 FIP and 1.10 WHIP, allowing just 71-of-254 batters to reach base. As a testament to how impressive he has been, Kirby has worked at least six innings in eight of his 10 starts this season. The bullpens are virtually a wash but I'm confident the Mariners can pick themselves back up at the plate and snap their two-game skid, noting they've lost more than two games in a row only once since April 30th. Take Seattle (10*). |
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05-31-23 | Brewers v. Blue Jays OVER 9.5 | 4-2 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Blue Jays picked up their second straight win in the opener of this interleague series last night. They'll likely need to get their bats out again on Wednesday as they hand the ball to a struggling Alek Manoah against Julio Teheran of the Brewers. Teheran has made just one big league start this season - his first since 2021. He held up well in that outing against the Giants but I think it's important to keep that brief start in perspective. At the Triple-A level, with the Padres organization, Teheran had recorded a 5.62 ERA and 1.68 WHIP in 40 innings of work. Of the 185 batters he faced, 70 reached base. Manoah has of course struggled this season, posting a 6.15 FIP and 1.79 WHIP in 11 starts. You would have to go back seven outings to find the last time he lasted six innings or more. While the Blue Jays bullpen behind him has held up well, they also haven't had a day off (as a team) since May 11th. The Brewers 'pen entered last night's action sporting an ugly 6.00 ERA and 1.44 WHIP over the last seven games. Take the over (8*). |
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05-30-23 | Braves -1.5 v. A's | 1-2 | Loss | -145 | 15 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta -1.5 runs over Oakland at 9:40 pm et on Monday. The Braves got stunned by the A's in the series-opener between these two teams yesterday, dropping a 7-2 decision. I look for them to bounce back on Monday, behind impressive starter Bryce Elder. Elder checks in sporting a 3.46 FIP and 1.17 WHIP in 10 starts, spanning 58 1/3 innings of work. Of the 237 batters he has faced, only 72 have reached base. He'll start on a full five days' rest after taking the ball on short rest in his last outing. While the Braves bullpen has struggled lately, it has held up well on the road this season, posting a collective 2.89 ERA and 1.10 WHIP on the road (entering yesterday's action). J.P. Sears will counter for Oakland. He has actually gone two starts without the A's dropping a decision by multiple runs but Oakland has lost each of his last six outings overall. Sears owns a 5.15 FIP and 1.10 WHIP on the season. He has displayed much better command than we've seen previously in his career, allowing just 1.7 walks per nine innings but will be tested by a Braves lineup that has drawn 178 walks this season (entering Monday's action). Sears hasn't worked beyond the sixth inning in any of his 10 starts this season, leaving the A's poor bullpen likely to make more than a cameo appearance here. Note that Oakland's relief corps has recorded a collective 6.50 ERA and 1.66 WHIP this season with only four saves converted and 10 blown (also entering yesterday's action). Take Atlanta -1.5 runs (8*). |
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05-28-23 | Blue Jays v. Twins +102 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 11 m | Show |
American League Game of the Month. My selection is on Minnesota over Toronto at 2:10 pm et on Sunday. The Blue Jays took the opener of this series by a 3-1 score on Friday but the Twins bounced back in a big way yesterday, delivering a 9-7 victory in a contest that probably wasn't quite as close as the final score indicated (the Blue Jays scored three runs in the ninth inning). Both teams have been scuffing their heels lately but I like the Twins chances of ending their current homestand on a positive note before heading off to Houston to open a three-game set on Monday. Jose Berrios will take the ball as he makes his fifth career start against his former team. Since joining the Blue Jays, Berrios has posted a 2-2 team record against Minnesota but has gone 0-2 here in the Twin Cities. While Berrios has enjoyed a solid bounce-back campaign so far, posting a 3.76 FIP and 1.22 WHIP, I don't particularly like the set-up here. He'll be starting on short rest (four days) for a third straight turn in the rotation after working seven innings against the Rays last time out (in a lopsided 20-1 victory). The last time we saw him do so he was ineffective over 5 1/3 innings last September against the Yankees, allowing five earned runs on nine hits. Note that he's shown a fairly sharp home-road dichotomy this season as well, logging a 5.60 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in his six road outings. Bailey Ober will counter for Minnesota. He continues to be one of the most underrated starters in baseball this season. Ober got the call to the bigs after starting the campaign at the Triple-A level, where he shone, posting a 2.55 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 17 2/3 innings of work. Since joining the Twins, Ober has been just as effective, recording a 3.54 FIP and 0.99 WHIP in 35 1/3 innings pitched. He did allow four earned runs over five innings against the Giants last time out but has yet to give up more than single earned run in consecutive starts this season. Behind Ober is a Twins bullpen that has been terrific lately, entering yesterday's contest sporting a collective 2.35 ERA and 1.22 WHIP over the last seven games. The Jays 'pen has been on par with that of the Twins overall this season but entered yesterday's action with a 3.97 ERA and 1.37 WHIP over the last seven contests. While the Twins had the day off on Thursday, Toronto hasn't enjoyed an off day since May 11th (they'll finally get one tomorrow). The loss on the scoreboard wasn't the only setback for Toronto yesterday as CF Kevin Kiermaier was forced to leave the game with back discomfort. He's been one of the team's most consistent hitters this season, batting .319 and is also one of their best defensive players. It remains to be seen whether he'll be able to play on Sunday. The Twins have their share of injuries as well but have successfully employed a 'next man up' philosophy and average 4.8 runs per game at Target Field this season (entering yesterday's action). Take Minnesota (10*). |
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05-28-23 | Cardinals v. Guardians OVER 8.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between St. Louis and Cleveland at 1:40 pm et on Sunday. The 'under' has cashed in the first two games in this series but I expect a different story to unfold in Sunday's series-finale. Jordan Montgomery has been completely out of sorts for the Cardinals lately, allowing 13 earned runs in his last three starts, spanning 14 1/3 innings. He has issued at least three walks only twice in his last 26 starts but those two times have come in his last three outings. He's also inexplicably had the yips in terms of home runs allowed, tagged for six long balls over his last four starts. Hunter Gaddis will counter for Cleveland. He shut the White Sox down over six innings in his most recent start, allowing just two hits without allowing a single earned run. We've seen this story play out before this season though, noting that he didn't allow an earned run over six innings against Oakland back in April before getting lit up for eight earned runs in three innings in his next outing. In 19 1/3 innings pitched at the Triple-A level this season, Gaddis had posted a 5.12 ERA and 1.66 WHIP. He has been better with the Guardians, posting a 3.64 FIP and 1.21 WHIP but I do think regression will be in order over his next few outings (note that he owns a career 6.25 FIP and 1.49 WHIP). Both bullpens have been solid lately but the Guardians have blown 11 saves already this season while the Cardinals relief corps has been overworked, having not had a day off since May 11th. Take the over (8*). |
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05-27-23 | Cardinals v. Guardians OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
Interleague Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between St. Louis and Cleveland at 7:15 pm et on Saturday. These two teams were involved in a relatively low-scoring affair to open this series last night and the Guardians posted their fourth straight 'under' result in a 4-3 victory. I expect a different story to unfold on Saturday. St. Louis will send Jack Flaherty to the hill for his 11th start of the season. He checks in sporting a 4.88 FIP and 1.59 WHIP, having allowed a whopping 85-of-223 batters he has faced to reach base. I don't need to tell you that spells trouble as he prepares to face a Guardians lineup that, while struggling to hit for the most part, does generally apply a ton of pressure on opposing pitchers with their speed and aggressiveness on the basepaths. Meanwhile, the Cards bullpen behind Flaherty is as overworked as it gets having not had a day off since May 11th, entering last night's action with a collective 4.98 ERA and 1.26 WHIP over the last seven games. Tanner Bibee will get the start for Cleveland. His overall numbers this season are solid but he has proven vulnerable at times. He's just two starts removed from allowing four earned runs over just 3 2/3 innings against the light-hitting Tigers for example. He was fortunate to give up only two earned runs over six innings against the Mets last time out as he was tagged for seven hits and issued four walks (while striking out only three). The Cards bats were relatively quiet last night but we know they're capable of breaking out, noting that they've scored eight runs or more four times since May 15th. The Guardians bullpen has posted terrific numbers overall but used a number of key arms last night and has blown 11 saves to date (and nearly blew another last night). Take the over (10*). |
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05-26-23 | Cardinals v. Guardians OVER 8 | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between St. Louis and Cleveland at 7:10 pm et on Friday. I'm not convinced that this will be the pitcher's duel that many are expecting as the Cardinals send Matthew Liberatore to the hill against Guardians ace Shane Bieber. Liberatore will be making his third appearance and second start for the Cardinals this season. He pitched well in his lone previous start, out-duelling Brewers ace Corbin Burnes in a 3-0 victory back on May 17th. The left-hander has yet to find much consistency at the big league level, however, noting that he logged a 5.02 FIP and 1.73 WHIP in 34 2/3 innings with St. Louis last season. He has allowed 9-of-27 batters he has faced to reach base in limited work this year and I do expect the Guardians to apply plenty of pressure with their aggressive base-running on Friday. Perhaps the bigger concern should be the Cardinals bullpen as they haven't had a day off since May 11th and check in sporting a collective 4.98 ERA and 1.26 WHIP over the last seven games. For the season, the Cards 'pen has converted only 11 saves while blowing 10. Shane Bieber has been somewhat un-Bieber-like this season, posting a 3.98 FIP and 1.21 WHIP. His walks per nine innings are up and his strikeouts are down (considerably). Here, he'll be starting on short rest (four days) for a third consecutive turn in the rotation. Compounding matters is the fact that he worked eight innings, throwing 106 pitches in his most recent start. The Guardians bullpen has been good but has had a tendency to cough up late leads, blowing two saves in the last seven games alone and 11 on the season so far. Take the over (8*). |
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05-26-23 | White Sox -136 v. Tigers | Top | 12-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
A.L. Central Game of the Month. My selection is on Chicago over Detroit at 6:40 pm et on Friday. The Tigers took the opener of this series by a 7-2 score last night - their second straight victory. Note that they've strung together more than two wins in a row only twice previously this season while the White Sox haven't dropped back-to-back games since a three-game skid from May 10th to 12th, quietly turning things around following an awful start. Lance Lynn will take the ball for the visiting White Sox on Friday. I have him pegged as a positive regression candidate as much like his team, we've seen him start to turn the corner over his last couple of outings. Lynn still owns a disappointing 4.71 FIP and 1.47 WHIP on the season but those numbers do indicate he's pitched better than his lofty 6.28 ERA. Note that the hits have been falling in at an uncommon rate, even by Lynn's standards, as he has given up 10.2 hits per nine innings this season, compared to his career average of 8.3. Lynn has also given up 1.9 home runs per nine innings compared to his career mark of 0.9 but most of the damage was done when he was struggling early in the campaign. He has given up just one home run over his last two starts, spanning 13 innings of work. Lynn should be pleased to see the Tigers as his teams have gone a perfect 6-0 in his last six starts against them. Joey Wentz will counter for Detroit. He made seven starts at the big league level last year and pitched reasonably well. It's been a different story here in 2023, however, as the book may be out on the left-hander. He checks in sporting a 5.79 FIP and 1.63 WHIP through 38 2/3 innings of work. Wentz hasn't made it out of the third inning in either of his last two outings. While he will have the advantage of facing the White Sox for the first time, the same could have been said in his last start against the Washington Nationals and he was lit up for six earned runs on 10 hits over just two innings. Based on recent form, we can consider the bullpens a virtual wash in this matchup. I do like the fact that White Sox relievers have only been called upon to work 23 1/3 innings over the last seven games, posting a collective 2.31 ERA and 0.94 WHIP while converting three saves without blowing a single one over that stretch. Despite last night's defeat, the White Sox have had plenty of success here in the Motor City over the last 2+ seasons, going 12-7, outscoring the Tigers by an average margin of 6-4. Take Chicago (10*). |
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05-25-23 | Mets v. Cubs OVER 7.5 | Top | 10-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
National League Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Chicago at 7:40 pm et on Thursday. The wind was blowing in at Wrigley Field last night and as a result we saw an exceptionally low total, not to mention another 'under' result, the second straight to open this series. I expect a different story to unfold in Thursday's series-finale, however. New York will give the start to Carlos Carrasco. To say he has struggled this season would be an understatement. Carrasco checks in sporting a 6.97 FIP and 1.55 WHIP through only four starts spanning 18 2/3 innings due to a stint on the I.L. He did pitch reasonably well in two rehab appearances at the minor league level but that was at Double-A Binghamton. Here in the bigs he has allowed 32-of-86 batters he has faced to reach base including four home runs. Carrasco did pitch six shutout innings in his lone start against the Cubs last year but I think we can agree that he was a much different pitcher a year ago than he is now. Kyle Hendricks will get his first start of the season for the Cubs. He's had extended work at the minor league (Triple-A) level and hasn't looked particularly good, posting a 5.75 ERA and 1.33 WHIP, allowing 28-of-85 batters he has faced to reach base including a pair of home runs in 20 1/3 innings. Keep in mind, Hendricks has struggled at the big league level over the last two seasons, recording a 4.89 FIP and 1.35 WHIP in 2021 and a 4.82 FIP and 1.29 WHIP in 2022. The Mets entered last night's action averaging north of 5.0 runs per game against right-handed starting pitching this season. I don't expect either of tonight's starters to work deep into this game and that should open the door for some late runs, noting that the two bullpens have really struggled lately. New York's relief corps checks in sporting a collective 5.55 ERA and 1.52 WHIP over the last seven games (entering last night's action) while the Cubs 'pen has posted a 6.45 ERA and 1.79 WHIP over the same stretch (also prior to last night's contest). Take the over (10*). |
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05-24-23 | A's v. Mariners -1.5 | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle -1.5 runs over Oakland at 9:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Mariners got a bit of a scare, if you can call it that, from the A's last night as they trailed 2-0 before rallying in the bottom of the fifth inning and ultimately holding on for a 3-2 victory. Sitting in fourth place in the highly-competitive American League West and staring down a tough upcoming schedule that will feature consecutive series' against the Pirates, Yankees and Rangers, it's important that Seattle makes the most of this four-game home series against the lowly A's and so far, so good with two wins in as many tries. Ken Waldichuk will inexplicably get another turn in the A's starting rotation on Wednesday. The left-hander has been every bit as bad as his 6.85 ERA indicates, logging a 7.28 FIP and 1.85 WHIP through nine starts spanning 46 innings of work. Of the 220 batters he has faced, 88 have reached base including a whopping 13 home runs. Things don't figure to get any better here as the Mariners get their second look at him this season and he starts on short rest (four days) for just the third time this season (11 earned runs allowed on 13 hits in 9 1/3 innings in his previous two starts on short rest). Behind Waldichuk is an A's bullpen that continues to struggle, entering last night's action sporting a collective 6.62 ERA and 1.72 WHIP with only four saves converted and nine blown this season. Impressive rookie Bryce Miller will get the start for Seattle. While he will also be starting on just four days' rest, I'm not overly concerned as he did so back on May 7th as well (against a much tougher opponent in the Houston Astros) and allowed only two hits over six shutout innings. Miller's numbers are terrific. He has logged a 1.78 FIP and 0.51 WHIP through his first four big league starts, facing 88 batters and allowing only 13 of them to reach base. What I really like about Miller is that he's shown the ability to work deep into ball games, lasting at least six innings in all four starts to date. The Mariners bullpen behind him, while showing some regression lately, has recorded a collective 3.13 ERA and 1.27 WHIP with 12 saves converted and only six blown this season (entering last night's action). Take Seattle -1.5 runs (8*). |
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05-24-23 | Marlins v. Rockies OVER 10.5 | 10-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Wednesday. We're starting to see this total creep down following consecutive 'under' results to open this series. I believe it's the wrong move. Sandy Alcantara will get the start for the visiting Marlins. This 2023 campaign hasn't gone particularly well for the Marlins ace as he checks in sporting a 5.05 ERA in 57 innings of work. He hasn't been as bad as that ERA indicates, logging a 3.59 FIP and 1.23 WHIP but there is still reason for concern as he has allowed a whopping 30 earned runs over his last seven starts and now pitches on short rest (four days) for just the third time this season. The Marlins bullpen has been overworked, having been called into action for just shy of 190 innings already this season. Note that Miami relievers entered last night's contest sporting a collective 4.38 ERA and 1.37 WHIP on the road this season. Karl Kauffmann will get his second big league start for the Rockies on Wednesday. I'm confident the Marlins bats can inflict plenty of damage against the right-hander. Note that he'll be starting on just four days' rest after allowing 9-of-21 batters he faced to reach base in his debut against the Rangers last week. Kauffmann inexplicably got the call to the bigs after getting rocked to the tune of a 7.78 ERA and 1.78 WHIP in 37 innings of work at the Triple-A level earlier this season. He allowed a ridiculous 69-of-174 batters to reach base with Albuquerque. The Rockies bullpen has held up alright so far in this series but is still a subpar relief corps having entered last night's action sporting a collective 4.61 ERA and 1.55 WHIP at home this season. Take the over (8*). |
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05-24-23 | Padres v. Nationals +146 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 146 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
National League Game of the Month. My selection is on Washington over San Diego at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Padres took the opener of this series last night and have now strung together consecutive wins for the first time since May 3rd and 5th. I look for their success to be short-lived, however. Ryan Weathers will get another turn in the starting rotation for San Diego. I don't believe he's been as good as his 3.42 ERA indicates, recording a 4.46 FIP and 1.14 WHIP in 23 2/3 innings of work this season. The hits haven't been falling in against him but we're bound to see some regression in that department, noting that he has allowed just 6.8 hits per nine innings this season but gives up 9.2 for his career. Of the 92 batters Weathers has faced, 28 have reached base, this coming after he allowed 10-of-30 batters he faced to reach base at the Triple-A level earlier this season. The Nationals saw Weathers in the 2021 season, chasing him after 5 1/3 innings but not before plating four earned runs including two home runs on seven hits (while striking out only twice). Trevor Williams will counter for Washington. He's given the Nationals about what they expected, logging a 4.70 FIP and 1.26 WHIP through nine starts spanning 44 1/3 innings of work. He has certainly looked comfortable pitching here at Nationals Park, posting a 2.55 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in four home starts this season. Unlike his counterpart Weathers, Williams doesn't hand out many free passes, issuing just 2.0 walks per nine innings this season. While the Padres bullpen has pitched well lately, I'm willing to consider that department a virtual wash in this matchup at least when you consider the home/road splits of both relief corps'. The Nationals 'pen entered last night's action sporting a collective 3.86 ERA and 1.29 WHIP at home this season while Padres relievers had recorded a 3.96 ERA and 1.31 WHIP on the road. As I've said from the start of the season, I do think the Nats' are well-built for the ballpark they play their home games in, even if they are just 10-16 here this season. I like their chances of answering back against the Padres on Tuesday. Take Washington (10*). |
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05-23-23 | White Sox v. Guardians OVER 8 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
A.L. Central Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Cleveland at 6:10 pm et on Tuesday. This is a rematch of the same starting pitching matchup we saw last Thursday - a game the Guardians won by a score of 3-1. Both starters worked their way into and out of trouble on a number of occasions early in that contest and it ultimately turned out to be a low-scoring affair. I expect a different story to unfold here as both Dylan Cease and Logan Allen start on short rest (four days). In the case of Cease, he'll be starting on four days' rest for a fourth consecutive turn in the rotation. He hasn't come close to reaching the heights he saw in the 2022 campaign (he finished second in A.L. Cy Young Award voting), logging a 4.20 FIP and 1.39 WHIP. Of the 237 batters he has faced, 79 have reached base. Since striking out 18 in his first two outings this season, Cease has topped out at just six K's over his last eight trips to the hill. Allen will be making his first career big league start on short rest. He struck out eight in each of his first two starts this season but has K'd only 13 in his last three outings combined, covering a span of 15 2/3 innings. Not helping matters is the fact that White Sox hitters just saw him (and had some success with seven hits and a walk in 5 2/3 innings) less than a week ago - the first time he'll face an opponent for a second time in his big league career. Last week, I noted that the two bullpens have been a mixed-bag this season, combining to blow 17 saves at the time. Well, they've gone on to blow two more saves since then, so that's 19 blown saves on the campaign between the two 'pens. Take the over (10*). |
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05-22-23 | Marlins v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Monday. The Rockies return home licking their wounds after getting swept at the hands of the Rangers in Texas, outscored by a 31-10 margin in that three-game series. They'll be in tough again on Monday as they hand the ball to Chase Anderson, who is with his third organization already this season, for his second start of the campaign. Since lasting four years with the Brewers from 2016 to 2019, Anderson has now bounced around five different clubs since 2020. I don't need to tell you there's a reason for that. Incredibly, only 5-of-35 batters Anderson has faced at the big league level this season have managed to reach base. I can't help but feel that regression is coming, however, noting that Anderson had allowed 37-of-100 minor league batters to reach base, including four home runs, in 23 innings of work at the Triple-A level earlier in the campaign. Behind Anderson is an awful Rockies bullpen that has been severely overworked, logging 189 innings this season including 30 1/3 frames over the last seven games alone. Over their last seven contests they've posted a collective 5.64 ERA and 1.75 WHIP. Edward Cabrera will counter for Miami. He was dealing with a blister on his finger in his most recent outing but appears on track to make this start on Monday. Note that he'll be starting on short rest (four days) for just the fourth time this season, having allowed eight earned runs in 13 1/3 innings in his previous three outings on four days' rest. Like the Rockies, the Marlins 'pen has also been overworked this season, called into action for a collective 183 innings, recording a 4.18 ERA and 1.31 WHIP along the way. Take the over (8*). |
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05-21-23 | Rockies v. Rangers OVER 9 | 3-13 | Win | 100 | 6 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Colorado and Texas at 2:35 pm et on Sunday. We saw a high-scoring affair between these two teams yesterday as the Rangers continued their onslaught of the Rockies pitching staff in an 11-5 victory. I expect more of the same on Sunday. Connor Seabold will take the ball for the visiting Rockies. He remains in the Colorado starting rotation out of necessity only as he has struggled to the tune of a 5.12 FIP and 1.61 WHIP in 10 appearances including three starts this season. Of the 131 batters he has faced, a whopping 50 of them have reached base. Behind Seabold is a Rockies bullpen that has been extremely overworked, logging a collective 33 1/3 innings over the last seven games alone. For the season, Rockies relievers have combined to post a 3.90 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP. The Rangers will give Andrew Heaney the start. He's been a bit of a mixed-bag, recording a lofty 5.11 FIP but a respectable 1.19 WHIP. The hits simply haven't been falling in against the left-hander as he has allowed just 6.9 hits per nine innings. I do think we'll see some regression to the mean in that department, noting he has still given up 8.6 hits per nine innings over the course of his career. The Rangers bullpen hasn't lived up to expectations this season and has really struggled lately, logging a collective 8.53 ERA and 1.47 WHIP with just one save converted and two blown over the last seven games. Take the over (8*). |
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05-20-23 | Orioles v. Blue Jays OVER 9.5 | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 16 m | Show |
Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Baltimore and Toronto at 3:05 pm et on Saturday. I like the way this game sets up as a high-scoring affair between the Orioles and Blue Jays on Saturday afternoon at Rogers Centre. The Orioles offense kept rolling along last night, putting up six runs in a lopsided victory thanks to tacking on a couple of late runs against a banged-up Blue Jays bullpen. In fact, both bullpens are probably a little weary right now with neither team having had a day off since May 11th. The O's 'pen in particular has been overworked this season, logging 167 2/3 innings collectively. It has admittedly held up well but figures to be pressed into action early on Saturday noting that starter Grayson Rodriguez has yet to last six innings in a start in his big league career. Speaking of Rodriguez, he checks in sporting a 5.46 FIP and 1.73 WHIP and will start on short rest (four days) for the fourth time already this season. He hasn't fared well in his three previous outings on short rest, allowing 12 earned runs in 14 1/3 innings of work. Of the 170 batters Rodriguez has faced this season, 64 have reached base including nine home runs in 37 innings. Alek Manoah has been an abject disaster for the Blue Jays so far this season. To make matters worse, like Rodriguez, he'll be starting on short rest here. Manoah owns a 6.45 FIP and 1.80 WHIP and has allowed a whopping 85-of-214 batters to reach base. The Orioles are capable of applying significant pressure on the right-hander, noting they're among the league leaders in stolen bases with 42. In fact, they've averaging 5.7 runs per game away from home. With the Jays bullpen still sorely missing Zach Pop and Adam Cimber and having logged 4 1/3 innings, using five different relievers, last night, I look for plenty of offense from start to finish in this one. Take the over (10*). |
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05-19-23 | Twins v. Angels UNDER 8.5 | 4-5 | Loss | -108 | 14 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Los Angeles at 9:35 pm et on Friday. The Angels were involved in a wild affair in Baltimore yesterday afternoon, rallying for a 6-5 victory to wrap up that four-game series. Now they travel back across the country to host the Twins on Friday and I believe we're in for a relatively low-scoring contest. Joe Ryan will take the ball for the visiting Twins, who were idle yesterday after a three-game series against the Dodgers, also in California. Ryan has been terrific this season, logging a 2.54 FIP and 0.84 WHIP, allowing just 43-of-192 batters to reach base. It really doesn't get much better in terms of starting pitchers this season. Current Angels hitters have gone 4-for-12 in limited action against Ryan with only one extra-base hit (a double from Mike Trout). The Twins offense exploded over a three-game stretch from last Saturday to Monday, plating a whopping 35 runs. Since then, they've been held to eight runs in two games and I expect them to be in tough here as well, noting they average just 3.6 runs per game against left-handed starting pitching this season and will face a southpaw in Reid Detmers on Friday. Detmers has been a mixed-bag so far this season but it certainly capable of giving the Angels a quality start. Working 129 innings last season, Detmers posted a solid 3.79 FIP and 1.21 WHIP. While he hasn't been able to reach those same heights so far this season, I do think he's been better than his lofty 4.89 ERA indicates as he owns a 3.90 FIP. He has allowed a disappointing 10.0 hits per nine innings but I do expect some regression to the mean in that department, and a lowering of his 1.51 WHIP to go along with it. Current Twins hitters are just 8-for-35 against Detmers including a home run from Carlos Correa. In fact, that home run is the only extra-base hits they've managed to collect off of him. This matchup pits two of the best bullpens in baseball this season. What I really like about the Twins 'pen is the fact that it is one of the freshest in the majors having logged less than 150 innings collectively. Having the day off yesterday certainly helps their cause as well. The Angels 'pen has posted a collective 3.59 ERA and 1.19 WHIP (entering yesterday's action). While the 'over' cashed in Los Angeles' victory yesterday, it hasn't posted consecutive 'over' results since a three-game 'over' streak from May 6th to 8th. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 5-1 in the Twins last six games but they've still posted a 19-22-3 o/u mark this season. Take the under (8*). |
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05-19-23 | Orioles +135 v. Blue Jays | 6-2 | Win | 135 | 11 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on Baltimore over Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Friday. The Blue Jays are struggling right now, fresh off dropping three of four games against the rival Yankees here at home. I'm not as easily convinced that they'll pick themselves up off the mat on Friday as some and will back the Orioles at a generous underdog price. While the Jays have the more high-profile offense on paper, it's the O's lineup that has worn opposing pitchers out this season. Jays starter Yusei Kikuchi knows all about that as he faced Baltimore three times last season, allowing 12 earned runs in 12 1/3 innings. While Kikuchi owns a respectable 3.89 ERA this season he has logged a disappointing 5.46 FIP and 1.30 WHIP. Behind Kikuchi is a banged-up Jays bullpen that is missing two of its key arms in Adam Cimber and Zach Pop. Baltimore will hand the ball to Kyle Gibson for Friday's series-opener. I'm not going to sugar-coat it, he hasn't been all that good this season, posting a 4.39 FIP and 1.40 WHIP. I do like the fact that he's managed to work at least into the sixth inning in six of his last eight starts. He has probably deserved better than a three-start losing streak, noting that the O's haven't given him a single run of support over that stretch. The O's bullpen doesn't get enough credit. Their relief corps' has logged a collective 2.99 ERA and 1.21 WHIP this season. Take Baltimore (8*). |
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05-18-23 | Dodgers -143 v. Cardinals | 8-16 | Loss | -143 | 12 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over St. Louis at 7:45 pm et on Thursday. The Dodgers are a team that we want to bet on right now and Julio Urias is certainly a starting pitcher we're looking to support as well. Urias didn't get off to the best start this season and still owns a FIP just above four as he has been giving up home runs at a much higher rate than we're accustomed to seeing (1.7 per nine innings compared to his career mark of 1.0). However, he has strung together three straight solid outings, lowering his WHIP all the way to 1.07 and I believe he's well-positioned to keep the positive momentum building in St. Louis on Thursday. Urias' counterpart will be veteran Adam Wainwright. He struggled in a few minor league outings earlier this season, allowing 20-of-58 batters to reach base while recording an ERA north of six in 13 innings of work. Since re-joining the Cards he has logged a 5.10 FIP and 1.70 WHIP while allowing 17-of-45 batters he has faced to reach base. Now he faces a Dodgers club that is certainly comfortable facing him having gone up against him four times (winning three of those games) over the last two seasons (nine earned runs in 22 innings). The bullpens are virtually a wash and both teams were in action yesterday. I will point out that Los Angeles has converted 12 saves while blowing only four while St. Louis has just eight saves to its credit to go along with 10 blown. Take Los Angeles (8*). |
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05-18-23 | Guardians v. White Sox OVER 8 | 3-1 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Chicago at 2:10 pm et on Thursday. The White Sox have taken the first two games of this series in lopsided fashion and they're favored again in Thursday's finale. I do think the Guardians give them a run here, but rather than back Cleveland in an underdog role, we'll go with the 'over' as I believe this total will prove too low. Logan Allen will get his fifth big league start for the Guardians. It seems as if the book might already be out on him after he looked terrific in his first two outings before getting roughed up in his last two. All told, Allen has posted a solid 3.26 FIP but a less-than-impressive 1.48 WHIP in 21 innings of work this season. Of the 95 batters he has faced, 31 have reached base including two home runs allowed. Dylan Cease will counter for Chicago. He's been terrific in his last three starts against the Guardians (all coming last season) but I don't believe this is a particularly favorable matchup for the right-hander this season. As I've noted time and time again this season, the Guardians do put a lot of pressure on opposing pitchers that have a tendency to put runners on base as they have speed to burn and are ultra-aggressive on the basepaths. Cease certainly fits the bill as one of those pitchers as he has allowed 72-of-212 batters he has faced to reach base in 46 1/3 innings of work this season. Note that Cease hasn't come close to matching last season's scintillating numbers (he finished second in American League Cy Young Award voting), logging a 4.12 FIP and 1.45 WHIP here in 2023. Also note that he'll be making his third straight start on short rest (four days). The two bullpens have been a mixed bag. The Guardians relief corps has generally been terrific, posting a collective 3.17 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. The White Sox 'pen on the other hand has struggled to the tune of a 5.77 ERA and 1.59 WHIP. Between the two bullpens we've seen 17 blown saves (compared to 24 converted) so far this season. The Guardians are still without Jose Ramirez and possibly Josh Naylor as well but that's been properly factored into the total in my opinion. Take the over (8*). |
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05-17-23 | Cubs v. Astros UNDER 8.5 | 6-7 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Houston at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. The first two games in this series both went 'over' the total but I look for a different story to unfold in Wednesday's series-finale. Chicago has now seen the 'over' cash in a season-high seven straight games. Its longest previous 'over' streak lasted only three games (twice). The interesting thing about this run of 'over' results is the fact that the Cubs aren't actually scoring with much consistency. They've plated 4, 10, 6, 1, 3, 4 and 3 runs during the streak. The question becomes whether the Cubs pitching staff can turn the tide and I believe it can on Wednesday. Veteran left-hander Drew Smyly will get the start for Chicago. He's been a bright spot in the Cubs rotation - turning back the clock to the tune of a 3.57 FIP and 0.97 WHIP in eight starts covering a span of 44 1/3 innings. Of the 176 batters Smyly has faced, only 45 have reached base. Chicago elected to essentially wave the white flag from the seventh inning on last night, keeping its best bullpen arms in reserve. The Cubs 'pen has struggled lately but still entered last night's contest sporting a collective 3.17 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in night games this season (4.11 ERA and 1.21 WHIP overall). J.P. France will get his third straight start in the Astros rotation having impressed in the first two. He got the call to the Show after posting a 2.33 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 19 1/3 innings at the Triple-A level earlier this season. Since joining the Astros, France has recorded a 3.82 FIP and 0.69 WHIP, allowing just 9-of-44 batters to reach base. Behind France is a terrific Astros bullpen that has posted a collective 3.21 ERA and 1.16 WHIP with 12 saves converted and only four blown this season (entering last night's action). Take the under (8*). |
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05-17-23 | Yankees v. Blue Jays +108 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 108 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
A.L. East Game of the Month. My selection is on Toronto over New York at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Yankees have taken the first two games in this series and they've done so convincingly by a 13-7 margin. I look for the Blue Jays to answer back on Wednesday, even as they face New York ace Gerrit Cole. We've seen some cracks in Cole's armor lately as he has allowed 24 hits and 11 earned runs over his last four starts covering a span of 22 2/3 innings. While it hasn't necessarily affected him much in the past, he'll be making his fifth consecutive start on short rest (four days). The Yankees have managed to win Cole's last two starts against the Blue Jays, including a walk-off 3-2 victory in the Bronx back in April. The last time New York won consecutive Cole outings against Toronto (back in 2021) they dropped his next start against the Jays by a 5-1 score. Behind Cole is an effective but overworked Yankees bullpen that was forced into action early last night thanks to starter Domingo German's ejection. Note that New York hasn't had a day off since May 4th, complicating late-inning bullpen decisions. The Blue Jays will hand the ball to Chris Bassitt. After an up-and-down start to the season he has really settled in over his last two starts, not allowing a single earned run in 16 innings of work. In fact, since allowing 10 hits and nine earned runs in 3 1/3 innings against St. Louis in his season debut, Bassitt has given up just 20 hits and 10 earned runs in his last seven starts, lasting at least six innings in six of those outings. The Toronto bullpen faltered late in last night's game but entered that contest sporting a collective 1.82 ERA and 0.85 WHIP with five saves converted and only one blown at home this season. Closer Jordan Romano is well-rested having not pitched since Saturday. Take Toronto (10*). |
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05-17-23 | Phillies -115 v. Giants | 4-7 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia over San Francisco at 3:45 pm et on Wednesday. The Giants have taken a pair of tightly-contested affairs to open this series and the Phillies have suddenly lost three games in a row following a five-game winning streak. I look for Philadelphia to bounce back on Wednesday as it sends Taijuan Walker to the hill against Ross Stripling of the Giants. Walker has certainly had an inconsistent start to his 2023 campaign but has managed to string together consecutive solid outings entering this start, allowing just four earned runs on 10 hits and no walks while striking out nine over his last 12 innings of work. I like the fact that he has lasted at least six innings in four of his last six trips to the hill and will be working in front of a Phillies bullpen that has been lights out lately, sporting a collective 0.00 ERA and 0.78 WHIP over the last seven games. Despite the close game last night, Philadelphia kept most of its key relief arms idle after Zach Wheeler worked six frames. Ross Stripling will counter for San Francisco. He's bounced in and out of the starting rotation in the early going this season, making eight appearances overall. He's been every bit as bad as his 7.14 ERA would indicate, logging a 7.16 FIP and 1.59 WHIP with 47 of the 131 batters he has faced managing to reach base. Stripling has topped out at five innings in his four previous starts this season which doesn't bode well as the Giants bullpen has been a mess, sporting a collective 5.80 ERA and 1.51 WHIP with 12 saves converted and seven blown on the campaign. Note that Giants closer Camilo Doval, one of the few bright spots in the San Francisco relief corps this season, worked the last two games meaning he's likely unavailable on Wednesday. Take Philadelphia (8*). |
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05-16-23 | Twins v. Dodgers UNDER 8 | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. These two teams were involved in an extra innings slugfest to open this series last night. In fact, the 'over' has now cashed in each of the Twins last four games following a six-game 'under' streak. I look for that run of high-scoring contests to come to an end here. Bailey Ober will get the start for the visiting Twins. He has impressed since getting the call to the bigs this season, posting a 3.31 FIP and 0.90 WHIP in 24 1/3 innings of work. He did get tagged for two home runs in his last start but those were his first two long balls allowed this season. Of the 92 batters Ober has faced this season, only 22 have managed to reach base. Behind Ober is a Twins bullpen that wasn't up to par last night but has generally been solid this season, recording a collective 3.66 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. On the road Minnesota's relief corps has converted five saves while blowing only two. Clayton Kershaw will counter for Los Angeles. He's enjoying another terrific campaign, logging a 3.55 FIP and 0.95 WHIP. Like Ober he has been bitten by the long ball over his last couple of outings but has still allowed just 1.3 home runs per nine innings this season and I would anticipate continued positive regression in that department noting he hasn't given up more than 1.2 HR/9 since the 2019 season. Kershaw has allowed just 48-of-193 batters to reach base and will have the benefit of starting on full rest (five days) here. He faced the Twins once last season, tossing seven shutout innings in a 7-0 Dodgers victory in Minnesota. The Los Angeles bullpen has settled down after a shaky start to the season, posting a collective 4.18 ERA and 1.35 WHIP with 12 saves converted and only four blown. Take the under (8*). |
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05-16-23 | Diamondbacks v. A's OVER 9 | 8-9 | Win | 100 | 13 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and Oakland at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a relatively low-scoring affair between these two teams last night as the Diamondbacks cruised to a 5-2 victory. I expect a much different result from a totals perspective on Tuesday as we have an unappealing starting pitching matchup between Tommy Henry of Arizona and Kyle Muller of Oakland. Henry will be making his second straight start on short rest (four days) and that doesn't bode well after he pitched a season-high 6 2/3 innings in his most recent outing. Note that Henry has posted a 5.01 FIP and 1.39 WHIP while allowing 32-of-93 batters he has faced to reach base so far this season. That's after he had logged a lofty 6.33 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in 21 1/3 innings of work at the Triple-A level. Behind Henry is a D'Backs bullpen that has posted a collective 4.50 ERA and 1.28 WHIP this season but hasn't had an off day since May 4th. A's starter Kyle Muller was a key piece coming over in the Sean Murphy trade to Atlanta in the offseason. So far this year, Muller hasn't panned out, recording a 5.75 FIP and 1.95 WHIP with 77 of the 185 batters he has faced managing to reach base. The A's bullpen has been among the worst in baseball this season, posting a collective 6.79 ERA and 1.70 WHIP with four saves converted and nine blown. Note that the A's haven't had a day off since May 1st, obviously further complicating their late inning decisions in this series. Take the over (8*). |
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05-16-23 | Cubs v. Astros UNDER 7.5 | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
Interleague Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Houston at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a relatively high-scoring series-opener between these former N.L. Central rivals last night but I expect a different story to unfold on Tuesday. While Cubs starter Justin Steele saw his last start fly 'over' the total in a 10-4 Cubs rout of the Cardinals. We'll continue to smash the 'under' button with Steele on the hill, however, noting that he has logged a 3.22 FIP and 1.03 WHIP while allowing just 53-of-192 batters he has faced to reach base this season. That coming on the heels of a 2022 campaign in which Steele impressively posted a 3.20 FIP and 1.35 WHIP in 24 starts spanning 119 innings of work. Cristian Javier will counter for Houston. He recorded a 3.16 FIP and 0.95 WHIP last year yet was snubbed in A.L. Cy Young Award voting. So far this season, Javier has posted a 3.37 FIP and 1.01 WHIP. He has struck out 35 batters over his last four outings. It's also worth noting that both of tonight's starters will be taking the ball on full rest (five days). While the Cubs bullpen has wobbled a bit lately, it still owns a collective 4.11 ERA and 1.21 WHIP on the season. Meanwhile, the Astros 'pen has posted a terrific 3.21 ERA and 1.16 WHIP with those numbers lowering to 2.53 and 0.84 respectively over the last seven games. Take the under (10*). |
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05-16-23 | Yankees v. Blue Jays -172 | 6-3 | Loss | -172 | 11 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto over New York at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Yankees took the opener of this series last night at Rogers Centre but I look for the Blue Jays to answer back on Tuesday. Domingo German gets the start for the visiting Yankees. He'll be making his fifth straight start on short rest (four days) and it seems to be wearing on him as he has lasted less than six innings in each of his last two outings, allowing three earned runs on seven hits and five walks while striking out only eight in 10 2/3 innings of work. While German's 0.96 WHIP is impressive, his 4.37 FIP tells a much different story. The fact that he's allowing just 5.6 hits per nine innings is really the only thing keeping his numbers in check but we can anticipate some regression in that department moving forward, noting that he has still allowed 7.8 hits per nine innings over the course of his career. Kevin Gausman will counter for Toronto. He posted otherworldly numbers last season and has picked up right where he left off in 2023, save for a couple of ugly outlier performances against the Astros and Red Sox. On the season, Gausman owns a 2.31 FIP and 1.10 WHIP, allowing only 53-of-196 batters he has faced to reach base. Both bullpens have been reliable in the early going this season although I do think the Yankees are in tough in that department given they haven't had a day off since May 4th. The Jays 'pen has been particularly sharp at home this season, logging a collective 1.82 ERA and 0.85 WHIP with five saves converted and only one blown. Take Toronto (8*). |
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05-15-23 | Royals v. Padres -1.5 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 58 m | Show |
Interleague Game of the Month. My selection is on San Diego -1.5 runs over Kansas City at 9:40 pm et on Monday. The Padres enter this game on a season-long five-game losing streak following a disheartening sweep at the hands of the division-rival Dodgers in Los Angeles. Their longest previous losing skid lasted only three games (that's happened twice previously this season). I'm confident we'll see them bounce back as they return home to host the Royals on Monday. Interestingly, tonight's starter for San Diego will be Michael Wacha who just happens to be the last starting pitcher to guide them to victory last week in Minnesota. Wacha has been handled well this season as he's yet to make a start on short rest (four days) and won't here either. He's pitched as well as the Padres could have hoped for in the early stages of the season as he has posted a 4.13 FIP and 1.34 WHIP. While he is putting a few too many batters on base for my liking, he's done a better job over his last two starts, yielding just five hits and five walks (and only one earned run) over 12 innings. Wacha's counterpart on Monday will be Brad Keller of the Royals. The other Keller, Mitch, was lights out for the Pirates yesterday and has arguably been one of the best starters in all of baseball over the last month. It's a much different story with Brad. He checks in sporting a 5.39 FIP and 1.77 WHIP having allowed a whopping 72-of-178 batters he has faced to reach base. Note that he'll be making his second straight start on short rest here. Of course, the Royals bullpen hasn't been much better, entering yesterday's action with a collective 5.10 ERA and 1.50 WHIP having converted five saves and blown six. The Padres bullpen hasn't been quite as good as most expected but hasn't been the biggest problem either, logging a collective 3.92 ERA and 1.26 WHIP entering yesterday's contest. Take San Diego -1.5 runs (10*). |
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05-15-23 | Reds v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | 8-9 | Win | 105 | 13 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Cincinnati and Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams are coming off low-scoring games yesterday. In fact, the Rockies have seen the 'under' cash in each of their last four games, matching their longest such streak of the season. The last time they posted four straight 'under' results, their next game totalled 14 runs right here at home against the Diamondbacks. I look for a similar story to unfold here as they open a series against the Reds on Monday. Hunter Greene will take the ball for Cincinnati. We were fairly high on the young right-hander earlier in the campaign but the numbers don't lie at this point and he has really struggled lately. Greene checks in sporting a 3.48 FIP and 1.49 WHIP with 61-of-176 batters he has faced reaching base. It gets a lot worse when you consider he has been tagged for seven earned runs on 13 hits, including three home runs, over his last two outings, covering a span of just 11 innings of work. Greene has pitched here at hitter-friendly Coors Field just once previously in his career (last season), allowing four earned runs on six hits including two home runs in just 4 1/3 innings. Connor Seabold will counter for Colorado. He's made just two big league starts so far this season but has also logged time out of the bullpen. All told, Seabold owns a 5.33 FIP and 1.44 WHIP, allowing 39-of-107 batters he has faced to reach base including four home runs in only 23 2/3 innings of work. Note that the Reds actually faced Seabold last September and chased him after scoring four earned runs in five innings. Both bullpens have held up better than expected so far this season but I would also firmly place both in the 'overworked' category at this point, the Reds' in particular as it entered yesterday's action having logged a whopping 38 collective innings over the last seven games. Also note that the Reds haven't had a day off since last Monday, which obviously doesn't help matters. Take the over (8*). |
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05-14-23 | Rangers v. A's OVER 9 | 11-3 | Win | 105 | 8 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Texas and Oakland at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. We saw a relatively low-scoring game between these two teams yesterday but I expect a different story to unfold in Sunday‘s series-finale. Andrew Heaney will take the ball for the Rangers. As I’ve noted on previous occasions this season, he’s pitching for his fourth different team since 2021. Heaney has struggled so far this year, logging a 5.73 FIP and 1.22 WHIP. The A’s will be getting their second look at the left-hander this season after collecting five hits and two walks over six innings on April 22nd. Drew Rucinski will get another turn in the A’s starting rotation out of necessity only. He’s been predictably awful in his return to the majors (prior to this year he last pitched for the Marlins in 2018), posting a 7.27 FIP and 2.09 WHIP in 14 1/3 innings this season. Of the 73 batters he has faced, 31 have reached base. To make matters worse, Rucinski will be making his second straight start on short rest (four days). Of course, the A’s bullpen has been awful as well, logging a collective 6.72 ERA and 1.72 WHIP with only four saves converted and nine blown. The Rangers relief corps has been far better but still has just eight saves converted compared to six blown so the door should be open for potential late offense if needed here. Take the over (8*). |
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05-14-23 | Mariners -172 v. Tigers | 3-5 | Loss | -172 | 8 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle over Detroit at 1:40 pm et on Sunday. The Mariners are suddenly rolling along, winners of eight of their last 11 games and they'll look to complete the series sweep in Detroit on Sunday. I like their chances with Logan Gilbert on the mound against Joey Wentz of the Tigers. Gilbert was a hard-luck loser in his last start as he allowed just two earned runs over 6 2/3 innings in a 2-1 loss to the Rangers. He's sporting Cy Young Award-caliber numbers so far this season having logged a 2.69 FIP and 0.99 WHIP in seven starts spanning 40 1/3 innings. In his lone outing against the Tigers last season, Gilbert tossed six shutout innings of two-hit ball in a 7-0 Mariners win here in Detroit. Wentz has labored through seven starts for the Tigers this season having posted a 5.52 FIP and 1.35 WHIP, allowing 46-of-144 batters he has faced to reach base. The left-hander will be in tough here, noting that the Mariners entered yesterday's action hitting 14 points higher against southpaw starting pitchers compared to their overall batting average, also putting up 4.8 runs per contest. In terms of the bullpens, the Mariners hold the edge in that department as well. They entered Saturday's affair sporting a collective 2.77 ERA and 1.23 WHIP with 12 saves converted and only four blown. The Tigers 'pen has actually performed better than expected so far this season but still owns an ERA north of four and just nine saves compared to six blown. Take Seattle (8*). |
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05-13-23 | Padres v. Dodgers -142 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over San Diego at 7:15 pm et on Saturday. The Dodgers bats were fairly lifeless against Padres starter Joe Musgrove last Sunday night but they still found a way to pull out a 5-2 victory in extra innings and their dominance over the Padres continued last night as they secured a 4-2 victory to open this series. Musgrove has been slow to regain his form since returning from injury. He logged 9 1/3 innings at the Single and Triple-A level earlier in April and allowed 15-of-43 batters he faced to reach base. Since re-joining the big club he has recorded a 6.22 FIP and 1.43 WHIP, allowing 20 of the 60 batters he has faced to reach base, including four home runs. I believe it's advantage-Dodgers here as they get their second look at Musgrove in less than a week and face him for the sixth time since the start of last season (the Padres went 1-4 in his five previous outings). Julio Urias will counter for Los Angeles. He should be happy to be facing the Padres for a second straight turn in the rotation, noting that he owns a career 7-1 record to go along with a 2.62 ERA and 1.03 WHIP against them. You would have to go back nine starts to find the last time the Dodgers lost to the Padres with Urias on the mound. He hasn't gotten off to the start he probably hoped for this season but has settled in over his last couple of outings (save for a bad first inning against the Padres last time out), yielding just three earned runs in 12 2/3 innings. Urias currently owns a 4.13 FIP and 1.17 WHIP, allowing 54-of-185 batters he has faced to reach base. I expect some positive regression to the mean in terms of his home runs allowed as he has given up 1.6 long balls per nine innings, which would serve as the highest mark of his career (his previous career-high was 1.2 last season). Both bullpens entered the season with high expectations and haven't necessarily lived up to those. With that being said, both have settled down over the last week or so although the Padres continue to have a miserable time trying to close out games, blowing three saves while converting just one over the last seven games. They've already blown eight saves this season (while converting 13). The Dodgers 'pen has converted four saves without blowing a single one over the last seven games. In fact, they've blown only three saves all season (while converting 11). Take Los Angeles (8*). |
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05-13-23 | Cubs v. Twins UNDER 7.5 | Top | 1-11 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 26 m | Show |
Interleague Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Minnesota at 2:10 pm et on Saturday. This matchup will feature two underrated starting pitchers in Hayden Wesneski of the Cubs and Joe Ryan of the Twins. While last night's series-opener snuck 'over' the total, I expect a different story to unfold on Saturday afternoon. Wesneski will start on full (five days) rest for the first time in his last five outings. He's pitched well nonetheless, allowing just three earned runs in 17 innings of work over his last three starts. After getting off to a shaky start that included six walks and three home runs allowed in his first two outings this season (covering a span of just six innings), Wesneski has really settled down and checks in having allowed 44-of-145 batters he has faced to reach base. The Twins have had to scratch and claw for seemingly every run lately, scoring 2, 3, 0, 1, 4, 5 and 2 runs over their last seven contests. Joe Ryan will take the ball for Minnesota. He's been lights out in the early going this season and doesn't get enough credit for how well he has pitched over the course of his three-year big league career. Ryan owns a 2.82 FIP and 0.84 WHIP in seven starts spanning 44 innings this season. Only 38-of-169 batters he has faced have managed to reach base. Both bullpens have held up reasonably well so far this season with the Cubs relief corps' in particular shining lately to the tune of a collective 1.45 ERA and 0.81 WHIP over the last seven games. They did use two key relievers in Adbert Alzolay and Mark Leiter Jr. in last night's game but both have proven capable of working back-to-back games this season. The Twins 'pen has logged a collective 3.81 ERA and 1.26 WHIP this season and they kept two key relief arms in Jhoan Duran and closer Jorge Lopez idle last night. Take the under (10*). |
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05-12-23 | Astros -150 v. White Sox | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston over Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Friday. The White Sox return home after dropping three of four games against the lowly Royals and I don't believe they're any better positioned to gt back in the win column as they host the Astros on Friday. Houston salvaged the final two games of its six-game west coast road trip to finish 3-3 on that jaunt. The Astros got a much-needed day off yesterday as their bullpen had been struggling over the last seven games but still owns a terrific 3.41 ERA and 1.21 WHIP with 10 saves converted and only four blown on the campaign. That's in stark contrast to that of the White Sox. Chicago's relief corps entered yesterday's action sporting a collective 6.21 ERA and 1.63 WHIP on the season and proceeded to give up the game-winning run in the ninth inning against Kansas City. Note that the White Sox haven't had a day off since May 1st, further compounding their issues. Chicago will give Michael Kopech the start on Friday. He's arguably been even worse than his lofty 5.97 ERA indicates having posted a 7.53 FIP and 1.57 WHIP through seven starts spanning 37 2/3 innings. Of the 170 batters he has faced, 62 have reached base including a whopping 12 home runs allowed. J.P France will get his second big league start for the Astros. While he came out on the short end in a 7-5 road defeat against the Mariners in his debut, it wasn't his fault by any means as he gave up just three hits and one walk while striking out five over five shutout innings. Note that France earned the call-up after he posted a 2.33 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 19 1/3 innings at the Triple-A level this season, allowing only 21-of-77 batters he faced to reach base. Take Houston (8*). |
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05-11-23 | White Sox v. Royals OVER 10 | 3-4 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Kansas City at 2:10 pm et on Thursday. Thursday's series-finale between these two A.L. Central cellar-dwellers features a subpar starting pitching matchup between Mike Clevinger of the White Sox and Brady Singer of the Royals. The book seems to once again be out on Clevinger as he re-acclimates himself with the American League after spending the last couple of years with the Padres. Of course, Clevinger missed the entire 2021 season before returning to log 114 1/3 innings last year. He struggled to the tune of a 4.97 FIP and 1.20 WHIP and has been even worse in the early going this season, recording a 5.19 FIP and 1.53 WHIP in seven starts spanning 35 1/3 innings. Of the 160 batters Clevinger has faced, 56 have reached base including six home runs - all coming in his last four outings. Note that Clevinger will be starting on short rest (four days) for the third time this season. On the two previous occasions he was tagged for five earned runs and lasted only eight innings. Singer has been a bit of an enigma in the first several years of his big league career. He had a terrific 2022 campaign by most accounts, logging a 3.58 FIP and 1.14 WHIP. That appears to be an outlier, however, as he has struggled again this season, posting a 5.40 FIP and 1.60 WHIP, allowing 57 of the 156 batters he has faced to reach base. Like Clevinger, Singer will also be pitching on just four days' rest on Thursday. In three previous starts on short rest this season, Singer has been lit up for 18 earned runs in 13 2/3 innings of work. This matchup also pits two of the worst bullpens in baseball with the White Sox relief corps' entering last night's action sporting a collective 6.21 ERA and 1.63 WHIP on the season and the Royals 'pen logging a 5.24 ERA and 1.47 WHIP. Prior to last night's contest, the two bullpens had combined to blow 11 saves (while converting 11) already this season. Take the over (8*). |
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05-10-23 | Marlins v. Diamondbacks OVER 8.5 | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Arizona at 3:40 pm et on Wednesday. The first two games in this series have stayed 'under' the total but I look for a different story to unfold in Wednesday's series-finale. Edward Cabrera will take the ball for the visiting Marlins. He's coming off a 2022 campaign in which he posted a terrific 3.01 ERA but that didn't tell the whole story as he logged a 4.59 FIP in 14 starts, spanning 71 2/3 innings. Perhaps that was a sign of things to come as he has labored through seven outings this season, posting a 5.13 FIP and 1.66 WHIP while allowing a whopping 54-of-148 batters he has faced to reach base. He'll be starting on four days' rest for just the third time this season having allowed four earned runs in 10 innings in his previous two outings on short rest. Merrill Kelly will counter for Arizona. He owns an impressive 2.75 ERA this season but again, that doesn't tell the whole story as he has logged a 3.88 FIP. The Marlins have seemingly had Kelly's number as he has faced them three times previously, posting a 6.75 ERA and 1.56 WHIP. That includes a start here in Arizona last season in which he was tagged for three earned runs on seven hits, including a home run, over five innings in an 11-3 defeat. Like Cabrera, Kelly will also be starting on just four days' rest for the third time this season having allowed seven earned runs in 11 innings in his two previous outings on short rest. The Marlins bullpen has posted a collective 4.94 ERA and 1.45 WHIP on the road this season while the Arizona relief corps' has struggled lately to the tune of a collective 5.64 ERA and 1.43 WHIP over the last seven games. In fact, over the last seven contests, the two teams have combined to convert only two saves while blowing five. Take the over (8*). |
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05-09-23 | Rangers v. Mariners -1.5 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 130 | 14 h 28 m | Show |
American League Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Seattle -1.5 runs over Texas at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Mariners wasted another terrific outing from Logan Gilbert in a 2-1 loss to the Rangers to open this series last night. Now 4.5 games back of division-leading Texas and looking up at three teams in the American League West standings, I look for Seattle to answer back on Tuesday. Andrew Heaney will get the start for the visiting Rangers. He had an outlier of a season with the Dodgers last year, an injury-shortened one at that, posting a 3.75 FIP and 1.09 WHIP in 72 2/3 innings of work and that earned him a $12 million contract in the offseason. Not surprisingly, he hasn't been able to reach the same heights back in the American League this year, logging a 6.18 FIP and 1.30 WHIP through six starts spanning 29 1/3 innings. The Mariners will likely be happy to see their old friend (Heaney spent the majority of his career with the division-rival Angels), noting that they're 8-7 all time against him as he has recorded a lofty 4.52 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. George Kirby will counter for Seattle. After finishing sixth in American League Rookie of the Year voting last season he's picked up right where he left off here in 2023. Kirby checks in sporting a 3.05 FIP and 0.98 WHIP, allowing just 39-of-148 batters he has faced to reach base so far this season. Note that he's faced the Rangers four times previously with Seattle going a perfect 4-0 with three of those wins coming by two runs or more. While it didn't play out that way last night, the two bullpens in this matchup entered the series heading in opposite directions with the Rangers 'pen having logged a collective 5.40 ERA and 1.57 WHIP over its last seven games and the Mariners relief corps' having posted a 1.87 ERA and 1.13 WHIP over the same stretch. Rather than lay the considerable chalk with the Mariners here, we'll sacrifice a run and back them on the run-line, noting that 13 of their 17 victories this season have come by two runs or more. Take Seattle -1.5 runs (10*). |
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05-08-23 | Nationals v. Giants OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 36 m | Show |
Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams are coming off 'over' results on Sunday and I expect more of the same as they open a three-game series in San Francisco on Monday. Jake Irvin will get the start for the visiting Nationals. He's in the Washington starting rotation due to necessity only at this point. In his first big league start he gave up just one earned run on two hits over 4 1/3 innings but did walk four batters while hitting another with a pitch (and only struck out three). Note that in five starts at the Triple-A level this season, Irvin allowed 36-of-98 batters he faced to reach base and was tagged for three home runs in 22 1/3 innings of work. His counterpart on Monday will be Anthony DeSclafani. The right-hander probably hasn't been quite as good as his sparkling 2.18 ERA would indicate, logging a 3.38 FIP. He does own an impressive 0.82 WHIP as he has issued just three walks in 38 innings of work. Some regression is almost a certainty at this point and here he'll face a Nationals club that has been at its best on the road this season, averaging 4.9 runs per game. Washington just finished a series in Arizona in which it scored 17 runs across three games. Also note that the Nats scored 28 runs on 45 hits in a three-game series here in San Francisco last year. Neither bullpen inspires much confidence. Nationals relievers have combined to post a 4.35 ERA and 1.39 WHIP with 10 saves converted and seven blown. Meanwhile, the Giants 'pen has been among the worst in baseball, recording a collective 6.04 ERA and 1.52 WHIP with nine saves converted and six blown. Take the over (10*). |
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05-08-23 | Rangers v. Mariners -151 | 2-1 | Loss | -151 | 15 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle over Texas at 9:40 pm et on Monday. The Rangers offense has exploded lately, scoring double-digit runs in four of their last six games. You still have to figure Mariners starter Logan Gilbert will be happy to see them on Monday, noting that he owns a 2.85 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in seven career starts against them with the Mariners winning five of those games. Gilbert enters this start in excellent form as he has posted a 3.15 FIP and 1.07 WHIP while allowing only 36-of-135 batters he has faced to reach base. While the Rangers have been scoring runs in bunches it still might not be enough for tonight's starter Jon Gray. He enjoyed a renaissance year of sorts in 2022 but hasn't come close to recapturing that magic so far this season, logging a 6.22 FIP and 1.40 WHIP. Of the 131 batters he has faced 45 have reached base including six home runs. Strikeouts have been an issue for the Mariners lineup but Gray hasn't been missing many bats, averaging just 5.6 strikeouts per nine innings. Behind Gray is a Rangers bullpen that started strong this season but has fallen apart lately. Entering yesterday's game, the Texas relief corps had logged a collective 5.82 ERA and 1.39 WHIP over the last seven games. For the season, Rangers relievers have blown as many saves as they've converted (five). In stark contrast, the Mariners bullpen owns a collective 2.95 ERA and 1.25 WHIP on the season with those numbers dropping to 1.54 and 1.11, respectively, over the last seven games (entering yesterday's action). Take Seattle (8*). |
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05-07-23 | Dodgers v. Padres OVER 8 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
N.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and San Diego at 7:05 pm et on Sunday. This matchup screams 'pitcher's duel' on paper with the Dodgers handing the ball to their ace Julio Urias against Joe Musgrove on Sunday. We'll go the other way, however, as neither starter has been able to find their form - at least not consistently - in the early going this season. Of course, in Joe Musgrove's defense, he's only made two starts since returning from injury. Neither outing went well, however, as he has logged an 8.16 FIP and 1.68 WHIP in 8 1/3 innings of work, allowing 15-of-39 batters to reach base including four home runs allowed. Concerning is the fact that he also struggled in a pair of minor league starts, allowing 15-of-43 batters to reach base. The Dodgers saw Musgrove four times last season, scoring nine earned runs in 23 1/3 innings. Dodgers starter Julio Urias didn't have a good Spring, or World Baseball Classic for that matter, and has struggled to find any sort of consistency so far this season. Urias checks in sporting a 4.40 FIP and 1.11 WHIP, allowing 45-of-160 batters he has faced to reach base. While he is coming off one of his best outings, allowing just one earned run over seven innings against the slumping Phillies, he'll now be starting on short rest (four days) for the second straight outing - the first time he's done that since last season (June 29th and July 4th). Neither bullpen has been overly impressive in the early going this season. The Dodgers relief corps entered Saturday's action sporting a collective 4.38 ERA and 1.42 WHIP while the Padres 'pen had logged a 4.03 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. Needless to say, both lineups have the ability to put a lot of pressure on opposing pitching staffs and after a couple of low-scoring games to open this series, I expect a different story to unfold on Sunday. Take the over (10*). |
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05-06-23 | A's v. Royals -1.5 | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on Kansas City -1.5 runs over Oakland at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. The A's took a wild one in the series-opener between these basement-dwelling clubs last night. I expect the Royals to answer back on Saturday. Ken Waldichuk will take the ball for Oakland, giving the Royals the opportunity to face a southpaw starter for the second straight game after seeing Kyle Muller last night. Note that Kansas City is averaging 4.7 runs per game against left-handed starting pitching this season, nearly a full run higher than its season scoring average. Waldichuk has been every bit as bad as his 7.26 ERA indicates, sporting a 7.40 FIP and 1.65 WHIP in six starts spanning 31 innings of work this season. Behind him is a majors-worst bullpen that has logged a collective 6.80 ERA and 1.74 WHIP with only three saves converted and nine blown. Brady Singer will counter for Kansas City. He's had an up-and-down start to the 2023 campaign after pitching well for the Royals last season (3.58 FIP and 1.14 WHIP in 153 1/3 innings pitched in 2022). Singer has been marginally better than his inflated 8.49 ERA indicates this season, posting a 5.05 FIP and 1.52 WHIP (still ugly numbers, I know). After turning in arguably his best start of the young season in Arizona two outings back, he made his next appearance on short (four days) rest in Minnesota and proceeded to get shelled for eight earned runs in just 2 2/3 innings. He's back on schedule here, pitching on full (five days) rest and facing an A's lineup that has just one hitter that has seen him before (Tony Kemp - 0-for-9 career against Singer). Two other A's, Seth Brown and Aledmys Diaz, have worn Singer out in the past but both are currently sidelined due to injury. The Royals bullpen has been almost as bad as that of the A's so far this season. However, on a positive note, they kept a number of their key relievers idle in last night's defeat. I mentioned Oakland's penchant for collapsing late with nine blown saves already this season. In stark contrast, the Royals have converted five saves while blowing only four. While Kansas City has just two home victories to its credit this season, both came by multiple runs. On the flip side, nine of the A's 11 road defeats have come by at least two runs with seven of those coming by four runs or more. Take Kansas City -1.5 runs (8*). |
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05-05-23 | Red Sox v. Phillies OVER 8 | Top | 5-3 | Push | 0 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
Interleague Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Friday. Both of these teams enter Friday's series-opener riding 'over' streaks with the Red Sox having seen each of their last four games (all against the Blue Jays) sail 'over' the total and the Phillies coming off a three-game set against the Dodgers in which all three contests went 'over' the total as well. I expect a similar story to unfold on Friday. One week ago tonight the Red Sox put plenty of pressure on Guardians ace Shane Bieber but couldn't break through in a 5-2 defeat. Since then, they've exploded for 8, 7, 6, 7, 8 and 11 runs over their last six games. Of course, they've also allowed five runs or more in 10 of their last 12 contests but we'll get to that in a moment. While the Sox draw a tough matchup in Phillies ace Zack Wheeler on Friday, I'm confident they'll be able to find continued success. After a shaky start to the season, Wheeler has turned it around over his last several starts, lowering his FIP to 2.54 and his WHIP to 1.22. Those numbers are relatively on par with what we've seen from the underrated right-hander going back to the start of 2021. With that being said, I do think he's in for some regression to the mean in terms of home runs allowed (he's given up just one in 32 2/3 innings of work this season) and what better opponent to contribute to that than the Red Sox, who have already mashed 46 home runs this season. I'll also point out that Wheeler has yet to work beyond the sixth inning this season and just twice in his last 18 outings going back to last year, leaving the door open for a struggling Phillies bullpen to step in and make things interesting, noting it has logged a collective 5.59 ERA and 1.56 WHIP this season. Chris Sale will get the start for the visiting Red Sox. He was terrific in his most recent outing against the slumping Guardians. That start came at home, where he's pitched reasonably well this season. The road has been another story as he has posted an 8.36 ERA and 1.86 WHIP in three outings spanning 14 innings of work. Overall, Sale checks in sporting a 4.63 FIP and 1.47 WHIP with 47 of the 134 batters he has faced reaching base. He'll be up against a rejuvenated Phillies lineup that just welcomed back Bryce Harper earlier this week. Harper proceeded to go 3-for-3 in his second game back. Table-setter Trea Turner enters this series on a five-game hitting streak. There's danger up and down the Philadelphia lineup and this is obviously a team built for its home ballpark, averaging 4.6 runs per game in 13 home games so far this season (compared to its season scoring average of 4.3 rpg). The Red Sox bullpen has held up well, much better than I expected at the outset of the season, logging a collective 3.44 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. However, it does enter this contest having not had a day off since April 27th and we're talking about a relief corps that has been overworked, having already been called into action for 128 1/3 innings this season. I can't help but think some regression will be coming for the Boston 'pen and the Phillies lineup poses a significant challenge. Take the over (10*). |
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05-04-23 | Mariners -1.5 v. A's | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 3 m | Show |
A.L. Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Seattle -1.5 runs over Oakland at 3:35 pm et on Thursday. Mariners starter George Kirby was a hard-luck loser in his most recent outing, working eight dominant innings against the Phillies but ultimately falling short in a 1-0 defeat. His 2-2 record through five starts overshadows just how effective he's been in his second big league season. Kirby checks in sporting a terrific 2.93 ERA but he's arguably been even better than that, logging a 2.61 FIP and 0.95 WHIP in 30 2/3 innings of work. Of the 120 batters he has faced, only 31 have reached base, including just a single home run allowed and a ridiculous two walks issued. While Kirby's results against the A's were a mixed bag in four starts last season (ERA north of four), most of the damage was done by players no longer on the A's roster (Sean Murphy and Stephen Vogt in particular). His counterpart on Thursday will be Drew Rucinski. The right-hander likely wouldn't be starting in most other big league rotations but such is the state of the A's pitching staff. Rucinski checks in sporting a 5.83 FIP and 2.12 WHIP in just 5 2/3 innings of work. I realize we're talking about a small sample size but the fact that 12 of the 28 batters he has faced have reached base is alarming. Also note that prior to getting called up, Rucinski had posted a 6.52 ERA and 1.76 WHIP in 9 2/3 innings at the minor league level this season. Prior to that, he hadn't pitched with any major league organization since he was a member of the Marlins back in 2018. Of course, it's the A's bullpen that is even more concerning. Oakland relievers have combined to post a 7.07 ERA and 1.79 WHIP this season with only three saves converted and a whopping nine blown. Contrast that with the Mariners 'pen, which has logged a collective 2.81 ERA and 1.26 WHIP with those numbers lowering to 1.21 and 1.12, respectively, over the last seven games. Seattle relievers have combined to close out 10 saves while blowing just four. Take Seattle -1.5 runs (10*). |
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05-04-23 | Brewers -143 v. Rockies | 6-9 | Loss | -143 | 7 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on Milwaukee over Colorado at 3:10 pm et on Thursday. The Brewers have inexplicably dropped the first two games of this series against the lowly Rockies but they're well-positioned to avoid the sweep on Thursday afternoon as they send veteran left-hander Wade Miley to the hill against Connor Seabold of the Rockies. Miley is having a fine campaign. While he's probably not pitching quite as well as his sparkling 1.86 ERA would indicate, he's still been incredibly effective, posting a 3.46 FIP and 1.00 WHIP through five starts spanning 29 innings of work. Only 30 of the 115 batters Miley has faced have managed to reach base. Meanwhile, Colorado will give Connor Seabold a turn in the rotation after he failed to cut it with the Red Sox (a fairly pitching-starved team right now). In 18 1/3 big league innings last year, Seabold was lit up to the tune of a 6.38 FIP and 2.35 WHIP, allowing 46-of-98 batters to reach base. He's been a little better pitching out of the bullpen for Colorado so far this season but that's not saying much. Seabold still owns a 3.72 FIP and 1.54 WHIP, allowing 25-of-65 batters to reach base. It rarely gets better for the Rockies as the game progresses, noting that their bullpen has logged a collective 4.35 ERA and 1.41 WHIP with four saves converted and three blown this season. Compare that to the Brewers 'pen, which has recorded a 3.17 ERA and 1.26 WHIP while converting nine saves and blowing just four. It's also worth noting that Colorado's 'pen has been pressed into action for just shy of 20 innings more than that of Milwaukee. Take Milwaukee (8*). |
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05-03-23 | Guardians v. Yankees OVER 7.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and New York at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. The first two games of this series have been of the low-scoring variety with the two teams trading victories. I expect a different story to unfold in Wednesday's series-finale in the Bronx. Shane Bieber will take the ball for the visiting Guardians. While he's pitched well in the early going this season, he perhaps hasn't quite lived up to lofty expectations. Note that his 3.63 FIP would serve as a career-high while his 6.2 strikeouts per nine innings would mark a career-low. In his most recent start last Friday, he worked himself in and out of trouble on numerous occasions in an eventual 5-2 win over the Red Sox. Note that Bieber has recorded more than four strikeouts in a game only once in six starts this season and that's despite working at least into the sixth inning in all six of those outings. I'll also point out that this will be his first start on short (four days) rest this season. He owns a 5.73 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in six career starts against the Yankees. Clarke Schmidt remains in the Yankees starting rotation out of necessity only. You have to wonder if he's long for a big league rotation based on how things have gone for the right-hander so far this season. Schmidt checks in sporting a 5.53 FIP and 1.68 WHIP in 25 innings of work - a far cry from the 3.60 FIP and 1.20 WHIP he posted mostly working out of the bullpen last year. Of the 119 batters Schmidt has faced this season, 44 have reached base. He's already been tagged for seven home runs. Now he faces a Guardians lineup that as I've mentioned on numerous occasions this season is ultra-aggressive and has speed to burn on the basepaths, having already racked up 35 stolen bases this season. They're going to apply plenty of pressure on Schmidt and you have to figure they're in line for a breakout performance after being held to just six runs over the last three games. Note that Cleveland entered last night's contest averaging 4.5 runs per game on the road this season. Both bullpens are elite and have certainly excelled so far this season. I will point out that the Yankees have used key reliever Wandy Peralta in each of the first two games in this series meaning he's likely unavailable on Wednesday. Meanwhile, the Guardians 'pen has been dealing with a tough stretch from usually-reliable setup man James Karinchak. I do think the terrific overall numbers from both relief corps' have been properly factored in when you consider this relatively-low posted total. Take the over (8*). |
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05-02-23 | Reds v. Padres UNDER 8.5 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cincinnati and San Diego at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday. The series-opener between these two teams sailed 'over' the total last night as the Padres cruised to an 8-3 victory - their third win in a row. After a red hot stretch at the plate last week (30 runs in four games), Cincinnati has cooled off, scoring only 10 runs over their last three contests. I'm anticipating a relatively low-scoring affair at Petco Park on Tuesday. Graham Ashcraft will get the start for the visiting Reds. I consider him to be one of the more underrated young starters in baseball, noting that he posted a 4.21 FIP and 1.42 WHIP in 105 innings of work during his rookie campaign last year - not bad numbers at all when you consider the majority of his starts take place at the bandbox that is Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati. So far this season, Ashcraft has recorded a 3.82 FIP and 1.17 WHIP, working at least six innings in four of his five starts to date. Note that he held opponents to less than 1.0 home run and 3.0 walks per nine innings last season. He's once again keeping the ball in the park this year, yielding just one home run in 30 frames of work - that coming in his first outing of the season. His walks are up but I am confident he can regain his command and he's made up for it by increasing his strikeouts per nine innings and limiting his hits allowed. All told, only 36-of-123 batters he has faced have reached base. With only 16 stolen bases so far this season, the Padres don't tend to put a ton of pressure on opposing pitchers with men on base. Note also that San Diego entered this series averaging just 3.2 runs per game at Petco Park this season. Veteran Michael Wacha will take the ball for the Padres. He's been better than his inflated 6.75 ERA would indicate, logging a 4.46 FIP and 1.58 WHIP through five starts. Not impressive numbers by any means but they're largely due to consecutive rocky outings in mid-April. He pitched reasonably well last time out, holding a good Cubs lineup to four hits, one walk and three earned runs over five innings. Behind Wacha is a Padres bullpen that I believe is in for some positive regression having entered this series sporting a collective 4.43 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. On a positive note, San Diego has converted 11 saves while blowing only four (entering Monday's action). The Reds bullpen has actually been getting stronger as the season goes on. Entering this series, Cincinnati relievers had logged a collective 2.96 ERA and 1.03 WHIP over the last seven games. Blown saves have been an issue with six on the season but the Reds don't project to be playing with a lead late in this game (of course it's always a possibility). Both teams were able to keep most of their key relievers rested last night, especially the Padres, who got six solid innings from starter Blake Snell and only used two relief arms in Steven Wilson and Domingo Tapia. Take the under (8*). |
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05-01-23 | Phillies v. Dodgers OVER 8.5 | 4-13 | Win | 100 | 13 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams are coming off relatively low-scoring weekend series'. In fact, the Phillies saw all three games in Houston stay 'under' the total and enter the new week on a four-game 'under' streak. Meanwhile, the Dodgers seven-game 'over' streak ground to a halt in a 1-0 victory over the Cardinals on Saturday before yesterday's game snuck 'under' the total as well. I expect a different story to unfold on Monday. Philadelphia will hand the ball to Taijuan Walker. He's had a bit of a rocky start to the campaign and doesn't figure to turn it around against a Dodgers club that has given him plenty of trouble over the course of his career (4.85 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in 12 career starts against them). Last season, Walker faced the Dodgers twice, allowing five earned runs on 12 hits and four walks while striking out only seven in 11 innings. So far this season, Walker has been about as bad as his 4.97 ERA indicates, sporting a 5.28 FIP and 1.38 WHIP with 35 of the 108 batters he has faced managing to reach base. Tony Gonsolin will counter for Los Angeles. He'll be making just his second start of the season after a brief return last week. He's certainly not in midseason form just yet, noting that he has allowed five walks in just 6 1/3 innings split between Triple-A and the bigs so far this season. The Phillies are seeing right-handed starters well this season, averaging 5.0 runs per game against them. Note that Gonsolin is unlikely to work deep into this game in just his second start back from injury and that's notable as the Dodgers bullpen hasn't been nearly as steady as we've become accustomed to, logging a collective 4.76 ERA and 1.45 WHIP so far this season. It's been a similar story for the Phillies bullpen, which has posted a 4.42 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. Take the over (8*). |
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05-01-23 | Cubs v. Nationals UNDER 8.5 | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Washington at 7:05 pm et on Monday. The Nationals avoided a sweep at the hands of the Pirates with a 7-2 victory yesterday, also marking their second straight 'over' result. Note that they've recorded an 'over' streak lasting three games only once previously this season and that came during a series at hitter-friendly Coors Field in Denver. Drew Smyly will take the ball for the visiting Cubs on Monday. He of course flirted with a perfect game two starts back before allowing two earned runs over five innings in a 5-3 loss to the Padres last time out. There's no denying Smyly has enjoyed a renaissance of sorts so far this season, recording a 3.24 FIP and 0.93 WHIP. He's allowed just 28 of the 110 batters he has faced to reach base. In his lone outing against Washington last season, Smyly gave up just two earned runs in 5 1/3 innings of work in a 3-2 victory here in D.C. Of note, neither of Smyly's last two starts have stayed 'under' the total. He hasn't gone three consecutive outings without an 'under' result since back in 2021 when he posted a five-start 'over' streak. Mackenzie Gore will counter for Washington. He was one of the big pieces coming over in the Juan Soto trade last Summer. Gore has been good but not great so far this season although his numbers are somewhat skewed by one bad outing in which he couldn't make it through the fourth inning against the Angels back on April 12th (that game still totalled only five runs). Through five starts, the left-hander has logged a 3.53 FIP and 1.30 WHIP. Walks have certainly been an issue as he has handed out north of 5.0 free passes per nine innings. However, Gore does have the ability to erase those walks thanks to his high strikeout rate. He is K'ing just shy of 12.0 batters per nine innings. The Cubs should help his cause, noting that they've already struck out 224 times this season - an average of over eight K's per game. The two bullpens are a bit of a mixed bag. Cubs relievers have posted a collective 3.98 ERA and 1.23 WHIP but have converted only three saves while blowing four. Meanwhile, the Nationals 'pen has recorded a 4.38 ERA and 1.31 WHIP with seven saves converted and four blown. What I do like about the two bullpens is the fact that neither has been truly overworked with the Cubs logging 97 1/3 innings and the Nats' working 96 2/3 frames. Take the under (8*). |
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04-30-23 | Reds v. A's OVER 8 | 4-5 | Win | 105 | 10 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Cincinnati and Oakland at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. We saw a low-scoring game between these two teams yesterday after Friday's series-opener produced a whopping 18 total runs. I'm expecting more in the way of offense on Sunday as the Reds send Nick Lodolo to the mound against Ken Waldichuk of the A's. Lodolo finished sixth in National League Rookie of the Year voting last season but hasn't been able to recapture that same form here in 2023, logging a 4.92 FIP and 1.87 WHIP. Of the 125 batters Lodolo has faced, 52 have reached base. While the A's have one of the worst offenses in baseball, we did see they're capable of rising up on occasion in Friday's seven-run outburst and I do think they're well-positioned to produce on Sunday as well. Waldichuk may not be long for a big league rotation based on how his career has started. He was good but certainly not great in 30-plus innings last year but 2023 has been disastrous. He's been every bit as bad as his 7.82 ERA indicates, perhaps even worse, posting a 8.10 FIP and 1.74 WHIP while allowing 46 of the 119 batters he has faced to reach base. Worse still, he's already been tagged for nine home runs - that's north of 3.0 long balls per nine innings. Behind Waldichuk is an A's bullpen that has been dreadful this season, entering yesterday's action sporting a collective 7.03 ERA and 1.74 WHIP. Keep in mind, Oakland blew yesterday's game in the ninth inning, coughing up a 2-1 lead in a 3-2 defeat. The Reds 'pen entered Saturday's action having logged a collective 3.62 ERA and 1.27 WHIP but has blown five saves. Take the over (8*). |
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04-29-23 | Guardians v. Red Sox OVER 9 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 105 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
American League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Boston at 4:10 pm et on Saturday. With last night's 5-2 victory here at Fenway Park, the Guardians have now seen four straight and nine of their last 10 games overall stay 'under' the total. Last night's contest certainly appeared headed in the other direction before the scoring fizzled late. Keep in mind, Boston has posted an 8-3 o/u mark over its last 11 games. I'm anticipating a fairly high-scoring affair on Saturday afternoon in Beantown. Zach Plesac will take the ball for the Guardians. He's probably been better than his 6.50 ERA this season but that's not saying much as he still owns a 4.02 FIP and 1.83 WHIP. We can certainly expect some regression to the mean in terms of his hits allowed as he's currently giving up a ridiculous 14.5 hits per nine innings. However, that doesn't mean that a matchup with the Red Sox at Fenway Park is an ideal spot to turn things around. Note that Boston has seen Plesac once in each of the last two seasons, plating six earned runs on 11 hits in 10 innings. Brayan Bello will counter for the Red Sox. While he's had plenty of success at the minor league level going back to the start of last season, that hasn't translated over to the bigs. He owns a 6.35 FIP and 2.18 WHIP in two outings so far this season, allowing nearly half (17) of the batters he's faced (39) to reach base. As I've noted on more than one occasion this season, if you're going to put runners on base against the Guardians, you're likely going to pay for it as they have speed to burn and are ultra-aggressive on the basepaths, stealing 31 bases already this season. Cleveland used two of its key bullpen arms to close out last night's game in Trevor Stephan and closer Emmanuel Clase. That duo has worked in each of the last two games but did have a day off on Thursday. With setup man James Karinchak struggling lately, they could be used again on Saturday and I simply question whether they can be as effective as usual. The Red Sox bullpen has exceeded expectations this season, logging a collective 3.59 ERA and 1.22 WHIP entering this series. I do expect to see some regression from their relief corps moving forward, noting that we already saw some of that heading into this series with Sox relievers having posted a 3.97 ERA and 1.28 WHIP over the last seven games. They're in a favorable spot as far as bullpen rest goes after Kutter Crawford finished the game with four solid innings in relief of starter Nick Pivetta last night. But again, I like the matchup for the Guardians bats regardless who the Red Sox trot out to the mound. Take the over (10*). |
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04-29-23 | Reds -144 v. A's | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cincinnati over Oakland at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. The A's early season slide continued last night as they dropped an 11-7 decision in the opener of this Interleague series. Cincinnati has quietly reeled off four straight wins and I don't expect it to break stride on Saturday afternoon at the Coliseum. Hunter Greene will take the ball for the visiting Reds. I consider him to be one of the more underrated young starters in baseball right now. He posted a respectable 4.37 FIP and 1.21 WHIP while logging 125 2/3 innings at the big league level last season and has been even better so far this year. Greene checks in sporting a 2.48 FIP and 1.39 WHIP through five starts, spanning 23 innings of work. After struggling a bit in his first two starts of the season, the right-hander has settled in, allowing only four earned runs while striking out 17 and walking only two over his last three outings covering a span of 15 innings. It's a much different story for A's starter Kyle Muller. He was of course a key piece coming over in the Sean Murphy trade to Atlanta. I have to wonder if the book is out on the young left-hander as he has been lit up in each of his last three starts. Muller has logged a 5.33 FIP and 2.03 WHIP in five starts spanning 23 2/3 innings so far in 2023. He has allowed 50 of the 119 batters he's faced to reach base. That's not good news as he prepares to face a Reds club that has feasted on left-handed starting pitching this season, hitting a collective .278 while averaging north of 6.0 runs per game. Behind Muller is an A's bullpen that entered this series sporting a collective 6.75 ERA and 1.71 WHIP with those numbers only getting worse after last night's debacle. On the flip side, the Reds 'pen has impressed, posting a 3.40 ERA and 1.26 WHIP entering this series but even better, a 1.25 ERA and 0.83 WHIP over the last seven games. Closing out games has been a bit of an issue, already with five blown saves on the campaign, but my thought here is that their lead will be big enough late to keep that wart hidden. Take Cincinnati (8*). |
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04-28-23 | Guardians -135 v. Red Sox | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland over Boston at 7:10 pm et on Friday. The Guardians have been scuffing their heels lately and are coming off another losing series, this one at the hands of the lowly Rockies. With that being said, I like their chances of opening this series in Boston on a positive note on Friday. Shane Bieber will take the ball for Cleveland. He hasn't necessarily been dominant in his first five turns in the rotation this season, particularly over his last couple of outings, but he still owns a solid 3.75 FIP and 1.17 WHIP and given his career-high FIP was 3.32 back in 2019, I expect some positive regression to the mean moving forward. Nick Pivetta will counter for Boston. He's arguably been worse than his 4.58 ERA would indicate, logging a 5.18 FIP and 1.37 WHIP through his first four outings. I've never felt he's a great fit for Fenway Park in Boston and so far this season he's given up just shy of 2.0 home runs per nine innings. While the Guardians bullpen has only been marginally better than the Red Sox 'pen, I would anticipate the numbers diverging as time goes on. We always like to support the Guardians when their elite bullpen is rested, as is the case here following an off day on Thursday. Note that Cleveland's relief corps has recorded a collective 3.38 ERA and 0.94 WHIP over the last seven games. Meanwhile, the Red Sox 'pen has held up well considering it has been overworked, already logging north of 100 innings on the season. We have seen some signs of regression lately though as Boston relievers have posted a 3.97 ERA and 1.28 WHIP over the last seven contests. Take Cleveland (8*). |
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04-27-23 | Mariners +105 v. Phillies | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle over Philadelphia at 1:05 pm et on Thursday. We'll take a flyer on the Mariners after they dropped the middle game of this three-game series last night. George Kirby will take the ball for Seattle. He's arguably been better than his 3.57 ERA indicates this season, logging a 2.81 FIP and 1.06 WHIP while allowing only 26-of-92 batters he's faced to reach base. I like the fact that Kirby has worked at least six innings in three of four starts to date, perhaps taking some of the pressure off of a Mariners bullpen that has been terrific but also overworked having logged north of 90 innings, collectively. Also note that Kirby has started on full rest (5+ days) in each of his first four starts this season and will do so again here. Matt Strahm will counter for Philadelphia. He tossed nine shutout innings in his first two outings this season but has allowed six earned runs in eight innings since. The hits simply haven't been dropping in against the left-hander as he has recorded a BABIP south of .230 so far this season. I do expect the Mariners lineup to put pressure on him here, noting that they check in averaging 5.0 runs per game on the road this season. The Phillies average 4.9 runs per contest at home and it's worth noting that they plated six runs last night. They've gone 1-5 after scoring six or more runs in a game this season, outscored by a combined margin of 49-17 in those contests. The Mariners bullpen does own marginally better overall numbers this season but Philadelphia's relief corps has admittedly been stronger over the last week. I'm willing to consider the bullpens a wash but even with that, I think the M's have enough of a starting pitching advantage and at the plate to support them at a reasonable price here. Take Seattle (8*). |
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04-26-23 | Cardinals +100 v. Giants | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
Non-Division Game of the Week. My selection is on St. Louis over San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Wednesday. We'll often look to fade MLB teams coming off emotional, come-from-behind victories like the one we saw from the Giants last night. San Francisco has now won a season-high four games in a row after having not strung together consecutive victories on a single occasion previously. The win streak has really come out of nowhere for a team that wasn't doing anything particularly well and I expect it to grind to a halt on Wednesday. Steven Matz will take the ball for the visiting Cardinals. I think some positive regression to the mean is in order when it comes to the left-hander as he has gone winless through his first four starts this season, posting a 4.87 FIP and 1.64 WHIP along the way. Keep in mind, in his first year with the Cardinals in 2022, Matz logged a 3.78 FIP and 1.25 WHIP in 15 appearances spanning 48 innings of work. In his last full big league season, Matz recorded a 3.79 FIP and 1.33 WHIP in 150 2/3 innings with the Blue Jays in 2021. Matz command simply hasn't been there in the early going as he has issued north of 4.0 walks per nine innings. I do think he can and will settle down and it's worth noting that the Giants don't put a ton of pressure on opposing pitchers with runners on base, with just 12 stolen bases to date this season. Behind Matz is a Cards bullpen that has pitched well (despite last night's debacle), recording a collective 3.43 ERA and 1.26 WHIP this season. That's in stark contrast to the Giants bullpen, which has logged a collective 5.44 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. Anthony DeSclafani will get the nod for San Francisco on Wednesday. Perhaps the opposite of Matz, some negative regression to the mean can be expected when it comes to the veteran right-hander. He has posted a 2.91 FIP and 0.88 WHIP but comes off his worst outing of the season against the Mets last Friday. After pitching lights out in his first two starts this season, DeSclafani has allowed six earned runs on 13 hits, including two home runs, over his last two outings, covering a span of 11 2/3 innings. Take St. Louis (10*). |
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Sean Murphy MLB Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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07-08-23 | Rockies v. Giants OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -120 | 7 h 10 m | Show |
07-07-23 | Cubs v. Yankees UNDER 8.5 | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show | |
07-06-23 | Cubs v. Brewers -105 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
07-05-23 | Mets v. Diamondbacks UNDER 9.5 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 15 h 41 m | Show | |
07-04-23 | Pirates v. Dodgers OVER 9 | Top | 9-7 | Win | 100 | 14 h 51 m | Show |
07-03-23 | Braves v. Guardians UNDER 9 | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
07-03-23 | Astros v. Rangers -110 | 12-11 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 42 m | Show | |
07-02-23 | Red Sox v. Blue Jays -1.5 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 49 m | Show |
07-01-23 | Rays v. Mariners UNDER 7.5 | 3-8 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 47 m | Show | |
06-30-23 | Diamondbacks v. Angels -147 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -147 | 14 h 43 m | Show |
06-29-23 | Phillies v. Cubs UNDER 9 | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 38 m | Show | |
06-28-23 | White Sox +108 v. Angels | 11-5 | Win | 108 | 12 h 54 m | Show | |
06-28-23 | Tigers v. Rangers -1.5 | Top | 2-10 | Win | 100 | 23 h 43 m | Show |
06-27-23 | Tigers v. Rangers -1.5 | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show | |
06-27-23 | Brewers v. Mets OVER 9 | Top | 2-7 | Push | 0 | 22 h 33 m | Show |
06-26-23 | White Sox v. Angels UNDER 8.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 15 h 51 m | Show |
06-26-23 | Tigers v. Rangers -1.5 | 7-2 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 26 m | Show | |
06-25-23 | Astros v. Dodgers UNDER 8.5 | 6-5 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 41 m | Show | |
06-24-23 | Astros v. Dodgers OVER 8.5 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
06-23-23 | Astros v. Dodgers UNDER 8.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 6 m | Show | |
06-23-23 | Braves -150 v. Reds | Top | 10-11 | Loss | -150 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
06-22-23 | Mariners +105 v. Yankees | 10-2 | Win | 105 | 11 h 40 m | Show | |
06-21-23 | Dodgers v. Angels -144 | 2-0 | Loss | -144 | 12 h 15 m | Show | |
06-21-23 | Red Sox v. Twins -120 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
06-20-23 | Mets v. Astros -127 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 23 h 15 m | Show |
06-19-23 | Cubs -117 v. Pirates | Top | 8-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
06-18-23 | White Sox v. Mariners -1.5 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 131 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
06-17-23 | Guardians -123 v. Diamondbacks | 3-6 | Loss | -123 | 14 h 1 m | Show | |
06-16-23 | Reds v. Astros UNDER 9 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
06-15-23 | Guardians +124 v. Padres | Top | 8-6 | Win | 124 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
06-15-23 | Phillies v. Diamondbacks OVER 9 | 5-4 | Push | 0 | 7 h 7 m | Show | |
06-14-23 | Angels v. Rangers OVER 9.5 | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
06-13-23 | Angels v. Rangers UNDER 9.5 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -120 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
06-12-23 | Angels v. Rangers -150 | Top | 9-6 | Loss | -150 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
06-11-23 | Cubs v. Giants -135 | 3-13 | Win | 100 | 7 h 19 m | Show | |
06-10-23 | A's v. Brewers OVER 9 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
06-09-23 | Cubs +105 v. Giants | 3-2 | Win | 105 | 14 h 59 m | Show | |
06-08-23 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Reds | Top | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 15 h 17 m | Show |
06-07-23 | Mariners +104 v. Padres | 3-10 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 17 m | Show | |
06-06-23 | Diamondbacks v. Nationals OVER 9.5 | Top | 10-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
06-05-23 | Astros +110 v. Blue Jays | Top | 11-4 | Win | 110 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
06-04-23 | Cubs -104 v. Padres | 7-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
06-03-23 | Yankees -122 v. Dodgers | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show | |
06-02-23 | Yankees v. Dodgers -136 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 15 h 45 m | Show |
06-02-23 | Mariners -113 v. Rangers | 0-2 | Loss | -113 | 13 h 5 m | Show | |
06-01-23 | Reds v. Red Sox UNDER 9.5 | 2-8 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
05-31-23 | Yankees v. Mariners -133 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 15 h 7 m | Show |
05-31-23 | Brewers v. Blue Jays OVER 9.5 | 4-2 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 57 m | Show | |
05-30-23 | Braves -1.5 v. A's | 1-2 | Loss | -145 | 15 h 24 m | Show | |
05-28-23 | Blue Jays v. Twins +102 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 11 m | Show |
05-28-23 | Cardinals v. Guardians OVER 8.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 22 m | Show | |
05-27-23 | Cardinals v. Guardians OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
05-26-23 | Cardinals v. Guardians OVER 8 | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 48 m | Show | |
05-26-23 | White Sox -136 v. Tigers | Top | 12-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
05-25-23 | Mets v. Cubs OVER 7.5 | Top | 10-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
05-24-23 | A's v. Mariners -1.5 | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 21 m | Show | |
05-24-23 | Marlins v. Rockies OVER 10.5 | 10-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show | |
05-24-23 | Padres v. Nationals +146 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 146 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
05-23-23 | White Sox v. Guardians OVER 8 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
05-22-23 | Marlins v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 15 m | Show | |
05-21-23 | Rockies v. Rangers OVER 9 | 3-13 | Win | 100 | 6 h 2 m | Show | |
05-20-23 | Orioles v. Blue Jays OVER 9.5 | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 16 m | Show |
05-19-23 | Twins v. Angels UNDER 8.5 | 4-5 | Loss | -108 | 14 h 18 m | Show | |
05-19-23 | Orioles +135 v. Blue Jays | 6-2 | Win | 135 | 11 h 7 m | Show | |
05-18-23 | Dodgers -143 v. Cardinals | 8-16 | Loss | -143 | 12 h 30 m | Show | |
05-18-23 | Guardians v. White Sox OVER 8 | 3-1 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 10 m | Show | |
05-17-23 | Cubs v. Astros UNDER 8.5 | 6-7 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 50 m | Show | |
05-17-23 | Yankees v. Blue Jays +108 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 108 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
05-17-23 | Phillies -115 v. Giants | 4-7 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 5 m | Show | |
05-16-23 | Twins v. Dodgers UNDER 8 | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 25 m | Show | |
05-16-23 | Diamondbacks v. A's OVER 9 | 8-9 | Win | 100 | 13 h 25 m | Show | |
05-16-23 | Cubs v. Astros UNDER 7.5 | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
05-16-23 | Yankees v. Blue Jays -172 | 6-3 | Loss | -172 | 11 h 35 m | Show | |
05-15-23 | Royals v. Padres -1.5 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 58 m | Show |
05-15-23 | Reds v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | 8-9 | Win | 105 | 13 h 42 m | Show | |
05-14-23 | Rangers v. A's OVER 9 | 11-3 | Win | 105 | 8 h 23 m | Show | |
05-14-23 | Mariners -172 v. Tigers | 3-5 | Loss | -172 | 8 h 36 m | Show | |
05-13-23 | Padres v. Dodgers -142 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show | |
05-13-23 | Cubs v. Twins UNDER 7.5 | Top | 1-11 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 26 m | Show |
05-12-23 | Astros -150 v. White Sox | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show | |
05-11-23 | White Sox v. Royals OVER 10 | 3-4 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 7 m | Show | |
05-10-23 | Marlins v. Diamondbacks OVER 8.5 | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 57 m | Show | |
05-09-23 | Rangers v. Mariners -1.5 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 130 | 14 h 28 m | Show |
05-08-23 | Nationals v. Giants OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 36 m | Show |
05-08-23 | Rangers v. Mariners -151 | 2-1 | Loss | -151 | 15 h 26 m | Show | |
05-07-23 | Dodgers v. Padres OVER 8 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
05-06-23 | A's v. Royals -1.5 | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 22 m | Show | |
05-05-23 | Red Sox v. Phillies OVER 8 | Top | 5-3 | Push | 0 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
05-04-23 | Mariners -1.5 v. A's | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 3 m | Show |
05-04-23 | Brewers -143 v. Rockies | 6-9 | Loss | -143 | 7 h 22 m | Show | |
05-03-23 | Guardians v. Yankees OVER 7.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 46 m | Show | |
05-02-23 | Reds v. Padres UNDER 8.5 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 26 m | Show | |
05-01-23 | Phillies v. Dodgers OVER 8.5 | 4-13 | Win | 100 | 13 h 27 m | Show | |
05-01-23 | Cubs v. Nationals UNDER 8.5 | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show | |
04-30-23 | Reds v. A's OVER 8 | 4-5 | Win | 105 | 10 h 41 m | Show | |
04-29-23 | Guardians v. Red Sox OVER 9 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 105 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
04-29-23 | Reds -144 v. A's | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show | |
04-28-23 | Guardians -135 v. Red Sox | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show | |
04-27-23 | Mariners +105 v. Phillies | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 1 m | Show | |
04-26-23 | Cardinals +100 v. Giants | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 39 m | Show |