Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-25-21 | Rangers v. Angels OVER 8.5 | 5-11 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Texas and Los Angeles at 9:35 pm et on Tuesday. I'm anticipating a high-scoring affair as the streaking Rangers head to Anaheim to face the Angels on Tuesday night. Left-hander Hyeon-Jong Yang will take the ball for the Rangers. He was terrific in his most recent start, allowing just three hits and two earned runs over 5 1/3 innings against the Yankees. Here, he'll face an Angels team that has performed well against left-handed starting pitching this season, averaging 5.3 runs per game on .268 hitting. Note that the 'over' has gone 9-3 in the Angels 12 games against southpaw starters. Yang hasn't shown the ability to work deep into ball games which opens the door for a Rangers bullpen that has posted a collective 5.67 ERA and 1.60 WHIP on the road this season. Texas will be getting its third look at Angels starter Andrew Heaney since the start of last season and it has enjoyed success against him, knocking the left-hander around for 11 earned runs in 15 1/3 innings. The Rangers are 12-5 against southpaw starters this season, averaging 4.4 runs per game on .254 hitting. Heaney has postd a 6.50 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in four home starts this season with the 'over' going a perfect 4-0. Note that Heaney is averaging less than five innings per start this season which means we're likely to see plenty of an Angels bullpen that has posted a 5.00 ERA and 1.48 WHIP, not to mention six blown saves, at home this season. Take the over (10*). |
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05-25-21 | Orioles v. Twins -196 | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota over Baltimore at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Twins are doing their best to make up for lost time right now, winners of four of their last five games but still a long way from getting back into contention. I do like their chances of staying hot on Tuesday against the reeling Orioles. Baltimore has lost seven straight games. The O's bullpen was a strength earlier in the season but the wheels have come off lately with their relievers posting a collective 10.17 ERA and 2.22 WHIP over their last seven games. With tonight's starter Dean Kremer averaging just over four innings per start the O's woeful 'pen should be forced into extended duty again. Jose Berrios isn't off to a banner start for the Twins but despite his 5.48 ERA and 1.30 WHIP here at home, Minnesota has still managed to win three of his four outings at Target Field. Interestingly, most of Berrios' struggles have come in the daytime. In three night starts he has posted a sparkling 1.62 ERA and 0.66 WHIP. Berrios has certainly had the O's number over the course of his career, going 5-0 with a 3.52 ERA and 1.15 WHIP against them. Take Minnesota (9*). |
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05-24-21 | Cardinals v. White Sox -173 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
MLB on ESPN Game of the Month. My selection is on Chicago over St. Louis at 8:10 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams are coming off disappointing weekend series' with the Cardinals dropping two of three games against the rival Cubs and the White Sox getting swept by the Yankees in the Bronx. Here, I look for the White Sox to bounce back at home as they once again look to tee off on a left-handed starting pitcher. Chicago's success against southpaw starters has been well-documented. It checks in 9-3 against lefties this season, averaging a whopping 8.0 runs per game and hitting just shy of .300 as a team. Cards starter Kwang-Hyun Kim has given up just one earned run in five consecutive starts but he's generally labored through those outings, most recently lasting just 3 1/3 innings in a start against the Padres last Sunday. Now that opposing teams have a little more tape on Kim, we've seen them have some success. To say that the Cards bullpen has been struggling would be an understatement. Note that Kim has posted a 3.86 ERA and an inflated 1.46 WHIP in three road starts this season, averaging less than four innings per start. That's concerning as behind Kim is a Cards bullpen that has recorded a 7.46 ERA and 2.01 WHIP over their last seven contests. Veteran Lance Lynn will counter for Chicago. He's off to a terrific start, having posted a 1.55 ERA and 0.98 WHIP through seven starts. Behind Lynn is a White Sox bullpen that has recorded a collective 3.38 ERA and 1.10 WHIP at home this season. Take Chicago (10*). |
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05-24-21 | Rockies v. Mets -135 | 3-2 | Loss | -135 | 9 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Colorado at 7:10 pm et on Monday. These two teams appear to be heading in opposite directions with the Rockies coming off a sweep of the D'Backs and the Mets off a losing series against the Marlins. However, most of Colorado's success this season has come at home. The Rockies check in a miserable 2-17 on the road and don't figure to improve on that awful mark here. Austin Gomber was the main piece coming Colorado's way in the Nolan Arenado deal but so far he has disappointed. Gomber has posted an ugly 6.39 ERA and 1.36 WHIP on the road this season with Colorado dropping five of his six outings away from Coors Field. He did pitch well in this last two starts with both of those coming against the Padres. Every other opponent he has faced this season has seemingly had his number though. Note that Gomber averages just five innings per start which spells trouble for the Rockies as their bullpen has been awful, posting a 5.46 ERA and 1.60 WHIP on the season. David Peterson will counter for New York. The Mets have won two of his three home starts so far this season where he has recorded a 3.95 ERA and an impressive 1.02 WHIP. Like Gomber, he has also struggled to work deep into ball games but the key difference is, the Mets 'pen has been terrific, posting a 3.70 ERA and 1.32 WHIP with those numbers getting much better at home, where they're recorded a 1.66 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 48 2/3 innings. Take New York (10*). |
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05-23-21 | Tigers v. Royals -141 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Kansas City over Detroit at 2:10 pm et on Sunday. The Royals have finally been able to regain their footing, winning five of their last eight games overall and have an opportunity to grab a second straight series win here on Sunday against the Tigers. They'll be getting their third look at Tigers starter Casey Mize already this season and they've had some success against him, scoring eight earned runs off of him in just 10 2/3 innings. Mize hasn't been fooling many Royals hitters, having posted a 5:5 strikeout-to-walk ratio against them. Meanwhile, Royals lefty Kris Bubic gets another start after impressing against the Brewers earlier this week, allowing just one hit over six shutout innings. The Royals have now won three of his last four starts going back to last season. Both bullpens have been solid over the last week or so, but it's the Royals relief corps that has been better over the first couple of months of the season, posting a 3.48 ERA in daytime games compared to Detroit's 5.40 mark (entering yesterday's action). Take Kansas City (10*). |
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05-22-21 | Rays v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -117 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
MLB A.L. East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Tampa Bay and Toronto at 7:35 pm et on Saturday. We saw a high-scoring contest between these two teams last night in Dunedin and I expect more of the same on Saturday. As expected, games played here in Dunedin have been generally high-scoring this season with the 'over' cashing at an 11-7 clip and an average total of nearly 11 runs. Shane McClanahan will take the ball for the Rays on Saturday. As opponents get more tape on the left-hander we're starting to see him struggle. Over his last two starts he has allowed seven earned runs on 10 hits over just 9 1/3 innings of work after he had given up only two earned runs in eight innings in his first two big league outings. The Jays are rolling along offensively right now having scored seven runs or more in four of their last five games. Robbie Ray will counter for Toronto. He's made great strides in terms of his command this season, issuing only two walks over his last five starts after handing out nine free passes in his first two outings. However, it seems to have come at the expense of his ability to keep the ball in the park. Ray has been lit up for 10 home runs in his last five starts, spanning 30 1/3 innings. The Rays have exploded offensively of late, scoring seven runs or more in six consecutive games. Take the over (10*). |
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05-22-21 | Twins v. Indians -162 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland over Minnesota at 4:10 pm et on Saturday. The Twins took the opener of this series in blowout fashion last night but I look for the Indians to bounce back behind their ace, Shane Bieber on Saturday. Kenta Maeda will take the ball for Minnesota. He's been an absolute train wreck this season and checks in sporting a 6.75 ERA and 1.58 WHIP on the road where the Twins have won just one of his five starts. The Indians will be getting their fourth look at him since last August and most recently tagged him for five earned runs over 5 2/3 innings back on April 27th. As I mentioned, Shane Bieber gets the nod for Cleveland. He's coming off a subpar performance in Seattle last time out but should bounce back here at home where he owns a 2.70 ERA and 1.30 WHIP this season with the Indians winning each of his last two outings here. Cleveland is 8-2 in his 10 career starts against Minnesota but will be looking for some revenge here after the Twins beat them 3-1 at home against Bieber last September. Not only do the Indians have the decisive edge in terms of the starters, they also have a considerable edge in the bullpen where they own one of the best relief corps in baseball so far this season. Indians relievers have posted a collective 2.57 ERA (entering last night's action) this season while the Twins have posted an ERA right around six on the road. Take Cleveland (10*). |
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05-22-21 | Orioles v. Nationals -152 | 9-12 | Win | 100 | 5 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington over Baltimore at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. Jon Lester doesn't instill much confidence with most bettors at this stage of his career but he's actually pitched pretty well in three home starts this season, recording a 2.25 ERA and 1.38 WHIP and he draws a favorable matchup against the struggling Orioles here. Baltimore has lost four straight and eight of its last nine games overall. O's starter Bruce Zimmermann continues to struggle at the big league level. He's allowed 10 earned runs over his last three starts, spanning just 13 innings of work. He owns a 5.28 ERA and 1.43 WHIP on the road with the O's dropping two of this three starts. Behind Zimmermann is an O's bullpen that started the year strong but has now posted an ERA north of six over their last seven games. By contrast, the Nats' 'pen has posted a 2.24 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in day games this season. Take Washington (9*). |
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05-21-21 | Mariners v. Padres OVER 7.5 | Top | 1-16 | Win | 103 | 15 h 43 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and San Diego at 10:10 pm et on Friday. The Mariners offense is coming off a miserable series against the Tigers which included being no-hit for the second time this season. Perhaps a change of scenery will serve them well. They'll be getting their third look at Padres starter Chris Paddack since last August. The last time they faced him here in San Diego they touched him up for six earned runs over just five innings in an 8-3 victory. Note that the 'over' is 11-2 in Paddack's last 13 starts with the total set between 7.0 and 8.5 runs with those games totaling an average of 10.6 runs. Chris Flexen will take the ball for Seattle. The 'over' has cashed at a perfect 8-0 clip in his eight career road starts as an underdog with those contests reaching an average total of 13.0 runs. Both bullpens are solid, but with neither starter showing the ability to work deep into ball games (Flexen averages around 5 2/3 innings per start while Paddack lasts just 4 1/3 innings on average), there's a good chance they get over-extended in this one. Take the over (10*). |
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05-21-21 | Tigers v. Royals UNDER 9 | 7-5 | Loss | -120 | 13 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Kansas City at 8:10 pm et on Friday. First, it's certainly worth pointing out that these two bullpens have been lights out over the last week or so with Detroit's 'pen recording a collective 2.11 ERA and 1.08 WHIP over its last seven games and Kansas City's relief corps having posted a 0.78 ERA and 1.30 WHIP over that same stretch. Note also that the 'under' has gone 25-10 in Royals starter Mike Minor's last 35 starts with the total set between 8.5 and 10.0 runs, as is the case here, with those games totaling an average of just 7.6 runs. Tigers starter Jose Urena has struggled in his last two outings but both of those came at home. He's been a better pitcher on the road, recording a 2.45 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. The Royals still aren't hitting, averaging just 3.7 runs per game over their last seven contests. Meanwhile, the Tigers check in averaging a paltry 2.7 runs per game against left-handed starters this season. The 'under' has cashed at a 10-2 clip when the Tigers face southpaw starters this season with those games averaging just 7.0 total runs. Take the under (10*). |
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05-21-21 | Red Sox v. Phillies UNDER 8.5 | 11-3 | Loss | -104 | 11 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Friday. The Red Sox are coming off a high-scoring come-from-behind victory over the Blue Jays last night while the Phillies were shut out by the Marlins and have now scored one run or less in four of their last seven games. Note that the 'under' has gone 25-11 in Phillies starter Aaron Nola's 36 career starts as a favorite priced at -150 or higher, as is the case here at the time of writing, with those games totaling an average of just 7.0 runs. Nola has faced the Red Sox three times previously, allowing just four earned runs in 22 innings of work with the 'under' cashing in all three of those games. Martin Perez is off to a somewhat surprising strong start for the Red Sox this season. He has recorded a 35.3% hard-hit ball percentage through 39 2/3 innings after turning in an incredible 29.7% hard-hit ball rate last year. Perez hasn't fared particularly well in three previous outings against the Phillies with an ERA north of four and a 1.30 WHIP, however, as I mentioned he's catching them at the right time here. Both bullpens have performed admirably of late, with the Red Sox relief corps entering last night's game sporting a 3.38 ERA and 1.22 WHIP over theirs last seven games and the Phillies 'pen having posted a sparkling 2.02 ERA and 1.08 WHIP over that same stretch. Take the under (9*). |
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05-21-21 | Red Sox v. Phillies -147 | 11-3 | Loss | -147 | 10 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia over Boston at 7:05 pm et on Friday. The Red Sox rallied for a wild 8-7 victory over the Blue Jays last night to secure their second straight series win. I look for them to stumble here, however, as they head to Philadelphia to face a Phillies club that will be seeing red after consecutive losses against the Marlins including a 6-0 setback last night. Philadelphia has the right starter on the mound to turn things around tonight as Aaron Nola has posted a perfect 4-0 team record in four home starts this season, recording a 1.40 ERA and 0.90 WHIP along the way. He'll be happy to get back home after going winless in his last two starts, but those came on the road. Note that Nola also has a solid track record against the Red Sox having given up just four earned runs in 22 career innings pitched against them. Martin Perez will counter for the Red Sox. The Phillies just saw him late last September, scoring four earned runs on five hits and six walks over five innings in a 6-5 win right here in Philadelphia. Despite his 2.30 ERA and 1.09 WHIP on the road, the Red Sox have only managed to win one of Perez's three road starts and that came against the lowly Twins back in the second week of April. Further supporting the Phillies here is their bullpen, which entered last night's action having posted a stellar 2.02 ERA and 1.08 WHIP over their last seven games. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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05-20-21 | Astros v. A's OVER 8.5 | Top | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 2 m | Show |
MLB A.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Oakland at 3:35 pm et on Thursday. We've already seen 20 runs cross home plate in the first two games of this series and I expect more of the same on Thursday afternoon. Note that the Astros check in averaging 5.4 runs per game in day games this season and north of six runs per contest over the last week. Meanwhile, the A's average 5.0 runs per game in day contests and prior to getting shut down by Zack Greinke last night, they had plated six runs or more in three of their last four games. Here, the A's will get their third look at Astros starter Luis Garcia since last September. Garcia was solid in his first outing against the A's but in his next he didn't record a single out, issuing three walks before allowing a grand slam in the first inning. Note that Garcia owns a 4.61 ERA on the road this season where he averages fewer than five innings per start. That opens the door for an Astros bullpen that entered last night's action sporting a collective 5.30 ERA on the road this season. Cole Irvin has posted solid overall numbers for the A's this season but again, there's some familiarity here as the Astros will face him for the third time this season. They've already touched him up for 12 hits and eight earned runs in 9 2/3 innings of work. Note that the A's bullpen entered last night's game having recorded a collective 7.30 ERA against division opponents this season and a 4.59 ERA here at home. Take the over (10*). |
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05-20-21 | Giants v. Reds -132 | 19-4 | Loss | -132 | 5 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cincinnati over San Francisco at 12:35 pm et on Thursday. The Giants have taken the first three games of this series, getting superb pitching from their starters and just enough offense to get by. While I'm not a big fan of backing teams looking to 'avoid the sweep', I do like the way this one sets up for the Reds. Keep in mind, San Francisco's last three victories have just been enough to move it one game over .500 on the road this season. Meanwhile, last night's loss dropped the Reds back to the .500 mark here at home. On a positive note, Cincinnati is averaging north of six runs per game here at home this season. Johnny Cueto gets the start for the Giants on Thursday. He has labored through his last two outings - both resulting in Giants losses at home against San Diego and at Pittsburgh. In those two starts he was tagged for seven earned runs on 16 hits in just 7 1/3 innings of work. Cueto is averaging just over five innings per start this season which opens the door for a bullpen that entered last night's action having posted a 5.17 ERA on the road this season. Tyler Mahle will counter for Cincinnati. The Reds have won each of his last four starts. He's winless in three career outings against the Giants but has never faced them here at home. While Mahle's overall numbers are solid this season, I am expecting some positive regression in one key area. Mahle recorded a 3.0% home run percentage in 47 2/3 innings last season but that number has bumped up to 4.0% this year. His 35.5% fly ball rate is the culprit but I certainly expect him to get that number down, noting that he owns a career 26.0% fly ball rate. Working behind Mahle is a Reds bullpen that has struggled overall this season but has certainly shown signs of turning it around, entering last night's action having posted a collective 2.48 ERA over their last seven games. Take Cincinnati (10*). |
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05-19-21 | Tigers v. Mariners -135 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -135 | 14 h 31 m | Show |
MLB Blowout Game of the Month. My selection is on Seattle over Detroit at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Mariners were no-hit by Spencer Turnbull last night and unfortunately we were along for the ride as we backed them in a 5-0 loss. Here, I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play, however, as Seattle hands the ball to highly-touted prospect Logan Gilbert for his second big league start. Gilbert was shaky in his debut against Cleveland last week, laboring through four innings in a 4-2 loss. Nerves were certainly a factor as Gilbert gave up a pair of home runs and also threw two wild pitches in that brief outing. There were positives to take away, however, as he struck out five and didn't issue a single walk. The fact that he 'only' allowed four runs was actually somewhat encouraging considering he didn't induce a single ground ball in the start. Gilbert draws a very manageable opponent here. While the Tigers have taken the first two games in this series they're still just 7-14 on the road this season and 11-19 against right-handed starting pitchers. Tarik Skubal and his winless record will get the start for Detroit on Tuesday. He checks in sporting an ugly 9.00 ERA and 1.91 WHIP in three road starts this season. The Tigers have lost all six of his starts here in 2021 and he's only managed to last an average of 4 2/3 innings. That opens the door for the possibility that we'll see extended work from a weak Tigers bullpen that has posted a collective 6.13 ERA this season including a 7.46 mark on the road. By contrast, the Mariners 'pen entered last night's action having recorded a 3.09 ERA here at home. Take Seattle (10*). |
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05-19-21 | White Sox v. Twins +1.5 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 4 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota +1.5 runs over Chicago at 1:10 pm et on Wednesday. It could certainly be argued that this game means a little more to the Twins than it does to the White Sox. Minnesota is wrapping up a six-game homestand and needs a victory today to salvage a 3-3 record. Meanwhile, the White Sox are sitting comfortably atop the A.L. Central standings and haven't lost consecutive games since April 15th and 17th. I'll grab the insurance run with the Twins here, as I don't think we'll see Chicago score enough to cover the run-line in this spot. The White Sox have scored four runs or less in six of their last seven games and are without one of their best hitters in Jose Abreu for this series. By contrast, Minnesota has scored four runs or more in four straight games, crossing the plate 20 times over that stretch. Note that Chicago is averaging just 3.9 runs per game in 16 daytime games this season. Meanwhile, Minnesota has gone a miserable 8-16 in day games despite averaging 5.1 runs per game. Expect some positive regression to the mean record-wise in that department for the Twins moving forward. Lucas Giolito gets the start for Chicago on Wednesday. The Twins faced him three times last season and knocked him around for 12 earned runs in 14 2/3 innings of work. Giolito has certainly been off of his game this season, posting a 7.02 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in four road starts. Twins starter Matt Shoemaker has been just as shaky although there is reason for encouragement after he worked six innings for the first time since his 2021 debut last time out against Oakland, and two starts back tossed five shutout innings against the Tigers. Shoemaker should bring some confidence to the table against the White Sox having allowed just six earned runs over his last three starts against them, spanning 20 1/3 innings. Chicago does own a slight bullpen edge in this matchup but it's worth noting that the Sox 'pen has compiled a collective ERA north of five in day games this season. Take Minnesota +1.5 runs (10*). |
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05-18-21 | Rockies v. Padres OVER 6.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -117 | 16 h 33 m | Show |
National League Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Colorado and San Diego at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a one-sided game between these two teams to open this series last night, with just seven total runs scored - all coming from the Padres. While I look for San Diego to turn in another fine showing at the plate, I think Colorado can help us along in terms of getting 'over' the low total on Tuesday as well. These same two pitchers, Austin Gomber and Blake Snell, matched up last week in Colorado with the Rockies prevailing by a 3-2 score but I expect a different story to unfold here. Gomber has already logged a lot of innings in his first year with the Rockies and we've seen a strong home-road dichotomy play out. In four road outings, Gomber has posted an ugly 7.56 ERA and 1.44 WHIP, averaging just five innings per start. That opens the door for the Rockies dreadful bullpen to potentially be forced into extended duty on Tuesday, noting that unit entered last night's action sporting a collective 9.39 ERA over their last seven games. Gomber continues to struggle with his command having posted a walk rate north of 12% while also giving up a ton of fly balls, to the tune of a 30.9% fly ball rate - more than 7% higher than the MLB average. Blake Snell has had his own issues with command, also recording an inflated walk rate - a staggering 15.2%! Snell has been terrific here at home, posting a 2.29 ERA and 1.22 WHIP, but averaging less than five innings per start. It's certainly worth noting that the Rockies have gone 6-4 against left-handed starting pitching (compared to 9-23 against righties). Colorado is hitting .282 against southpaw starters this season. Take the over (10*). |
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05-18-21 | Tigers v. Mariners -118 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -118 | 14 h 18 m | Show |
MLB A.L. Revenge Game of the Year. My selection is on Seattle over Detroit at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Mariners suffered a not-so-surprising letdown last night as they couldn't keep the positive momentum building after a series win over the Indians that was capped by a victory against Shane Bieber on Sunday. I do expect them to bounce back on Tuesday as they look to post their fifth win in their last six tries at home against Detroit. Spencer Turnbull will get the start for the Tigers. He pitched well in his most recent start but that was at home against a Royals club that was mired in a deep hitting slump. The Tigers have won two of Turnbull's five starts this season but both came at home with the other coming against the lowly Pirates. In two road outings, Turnbull has posted a 6.75 ERA and 1.88 WHIP. In his lone previous start against the Mariners back in 2009, Seattle prevailed by a 7-2 score in Detroit. While the Tigers bullpen has shown some improvement lately, this is still a group capable of blowing up on any given night, entering last night's action sporting a collective 6.19 ERA this season. Justin Dunn will counter for the Mariners. His command issues continue to be a problem, with a walk rate north of 15%, however his stuff is good enough to fool most big league hitters, as evidenced by his .181 opponents batting average (that's on par with his career opponents BA). The Mariners have managed to win each of Dunn's two home starts this season. While he did labor through his last start, that came on the road as a +225 underdog against the Dodgers. I look for Dunn to bounce back here noting that the Tigers check in 10-19 against right-handed starters this season. The Mariners bullpen has generally been solid this season, particularly here at home where it entered last night's game with a collective 3.09 ERA. Take Seattle (10*). |
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05-17-21 | Indians v. Angels OVER 9 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 14 h 6 m | Show |
MLB American League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Los Angeles at 9:35 pm et on Monday. There are a number of factors that lead me to believe we're in for a high-scoring affair in Anaheim on Monday night. The Indians will certainly be eager to bring an end to their three-game skid and get back on track at the plate. This looks like an ideal spot to do just that against a poor Angels pitching staff. Patrick Sandoval will get the start for Los Angeles on Monday - his first of the season after being used as a long reliever. Sandoval has yet to figure it out at the big league level, posting a career 5.40 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. In 7 1/3 innings of relief duty this season he has recorded a 55.0% hard-hit ball percentage and a 92.4 mph exit velocity off opposing bats - both considerably north of the MLB average. He's struggled to keep the ball in the park throughout his career, posting an ugly 5.3% home run rate, which is 1.8% higher than the MLB average. Rookie Sam Hentges will counter for Cleveland. He was never able to perform particularly well at the minor league level and now his struggles have carried over to the big leagues as well. Opponents are hitting .316 off of Hentges in 13 2/3 innings this season and he's posted a 32.6% fly ball rate and 6.4% home run rate. He was bailed out time and time again by the Cubs in his last start but I don't think he'll be so fortunate here. Both teams possess struggling bullpens. The Indians got off to a great start in that department this season but have taken a negative turn lately. Meanwhile, the Angels 'pen has been awful from the drop here in 2021. Take the over (10*). |
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05-17-21 | Nationals v. Cubs -146 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago over Washington at 7:40 pm et on Monday. The Nationals secured a series win with a 3-0 shutout victory in Arizona yesterday. I look for them to get tripped up in the opener of a four-game series in Chicago on Monday, however. Jon Lester gets the nod for Washington. While he has posted a 2.25 ERA through three starts this season, I certainly don't believe that is sustainable. Lester has posted a 24.5% fly ball rate yet has inexplicably yet to allow a home run in 16 innings of work. Note that he has posted a home run rate 3.2% or higher in each of the last four seasons. Nearing the end of his career, Lester's strikeout rate continues to decline while his walk rate is on the way up. He has already handed out seven walks in 16 innings this season. Adbert Alzolay will counter for Chicago. Unlike Lester, Alzolay is just getting started. While the fact he has allowed four home runs in his last three starts is concerning, there are also positives to be taken away as he has held opposing hitters to a collective .184 batting average and recorded a 29.3% strikeout rate and 5.7% walk rate - all three marks considerably better than the MLB average. With their bullpen holding up well in the early going this season and the Cubs having posted an 8-3 record against left-handed starters, I'm willing to pay the reasonably lofty price to back them in this spot. Take Chicago (10*). |
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05-16-21 | Mets v. Rays UNDER 7.5 | 1-7 | Loss | -106 | 4 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Tampa Bay at 1:10 pm et on Sunday. |
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05-15-21 | Cubs -125 v. Tigers | 8-9 | Loss | -125 | 8 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago over Detroit at 4:10 pm et on Saturday. The Tigers had won four games in a row entering this series but fell in the opener last night by a 4-2 score and I look for them to suffer another loss on Saturday afternoon. Chicago will hand the ball to Trevor Williams who is off to a rather uneven start this season but has certainly shown glimpses of promise, allowing two earned runs or less in five of his first seven outings. He hasn't shown the ability to work deep into ball games but that's not as big of a concern when you consider the Cubs bullpen has been terrific, posting a collective ERA around 1.50 over their last seven games. On the flip side, the Tigers 'pen has recorded an ERA north of six this season. Tigers starter Jose Urena had a stretch of four straight starts working exactly seven innings but that wasn't a sustainable trend and to no one's surprise he was chased after just 4 1/3 innings last time out against Minnesota. The Cubs offense has been slumbering on this current road trip but certainly has the potential to bust out on any given day. Having allowed 19 hits and issued six walks over his last three starts spanning 18 1/3 innings, I believe the Cubs can get to Urena here and ultimately get into that weak Detroit bullpen to break this game open. Take Chicago (10*). |
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05-14-21 | Cubs v. Tigers OVER 8.5 | 4-2 | Loss | -111 | 11 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Friday. These two teams are both coming off consecutive low-scoring affairs but I look for a different story to unfold as they open their series in Detroit on Friday night. Jake Arrieta will take the ball for Chicago. While this would appear to be a favorable bounce-back spot for him after he allowed seven earned runs in just 3 1/3 innings in his last start in Cincinnati, a closer look shows that the Tigers are actually seeing the ball well right now, having scored at least four runs in seven of their last eight games, and six runs or more in five of those contests. Arrieta is worse than the MLB average in terms of hard-hit ball percentage and exit velocity off opposing bats and has also recorded a poor 35.1% fly ball percentage. In keeping with a trend from the last couple of seasons, Arrieta has posted a home run percentage north of 3% so far this year - in fact he's trending toward his highest home run rate since back in his second big league season in 2011. Speaking of home runs allowed, Tigers starter Tarik Skubal has had an incredibly tough time keeping the ball in the park, recording a 37.8% fly ball percentage and 8.0% home run percentage. Keep in mind, he also posted a 6.7% home run rate in 32 innings of work last season, noting that the MLB average sits at 3.3% going back to the start of last season. The Cubs have crushed left-handed starting pitching this season, posting a 7-3 record and hitting .273 as a team and averaging 6.8 runs per game. Skubal has yet to make it through the sixth inning in any of his five starts this season which opens the door for plenty of work for the Tigers down-trodden bullpen, which entered yesterday's action having posted a collective 6.62 ERA this season. Take the over (10*). |
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05-13-21 | Yankees v. Rays +1.5 | Top | 1-9 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
A.L. Run-Line Game of the Month. My selection is on Tampa Bay +1.5 runs over New York at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. I really like the way this one sets up for the Rays as they try to avoid the series sweep at the hands of the Yankees on Thursday night. Tampa Bay has run into a couple of hot pitchers over the last two nights, unable to get anything going against Jordan Montgomery and Gerrit Cole. Here, it will benefit from facing what I would consider the weak link in the Yankees rotation in Jameson Taillon. The Yanks are just 2-4 with Taillon on the hill this season and he's posted an ugly 10.56 ERA and 1.83 WHIP in two road starts - both losses. We did see Taillon work into the seventh inning in his most recent start, but that was at home against the light-hitting Nationals and New York still lost the game 11-4 (we won with the underdog Nats in that game). Crafty veteran Rich Hill will take the ball for the Rays tonight. After a rough start to the season he has righted the ship over his last three starts, allowing just two earned runs on five hits over 15 innings of work. Hill has already guided the Rays to a victory against the Yankees this season, 10-5 back on April 9th. Hill's 4.66 home ERA is slightly misleading as he's recorded a stellar 0.98 WHIP here at Tropicana Field. Despite losing the first two games in this series, Tampa Bay is still 12-9 at home against New York over the last three seasons, and 5-3 overall against the Yankees here in 2021. I'll grab the insurance run with the Rays here as the very reasonable price warrants such a play. Take Tampa Bay +1.5 runs (10*). |
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05-13-21 | Giants v. Pirates UNDER 8 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
N.L. Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between San Francisco and Pittsburgh at 6:35 pm et on Thursday. |
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05-12-21 | Royals -144 v. Tigers | 2-4 | Loss | -144 | 9 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on Kansas City over Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. It's time for the Royals to bring an end to their ugly losing streak. They fell just short last night, rallying from a 7-0 eighth inning deficit to lose 8-7 in walk-off fashion. A poor start from Brady Singer cost them in that game but I expect a much better showing from Danny Duffy, their number one starter almost by default, here on Wednesday. Duffy has posted a perfect 3-0 team record in three road starts this season, including a 4-0 victory over these same Tigers. He tossed five shutout innings of four-hit ball in that contest and the Royals will call on him for a similar performance here. Note that Kansas City has gone 46-24 with Duffy on the hill as a favorite priced at -150 or lower over the course of his career, outscoring the opposition by 1.2 runs per game in that situation. Meanwhile, the Tigers are 27-69 as a home underdog over the last two-plus seasons, outscored by an average margin of 2.6 runs. Note that they check in 2-7 against left-handed starters this season, hitting a woeful .192 as a team while averaging just 2.3 runs per game. I don't have a whole lot to say about Tigers starter Casey Mize. He's off to an up and down start to the season and while he has pitched well over his last couple of starts, his 7.27 ERA in two home starts (spanning 8 2/3 innings) is a concern. The Royals chased him before the end of the fifth inning, scoring six runs off of him in a lopsided victory back on April 23rd. While the Kansas City bullpen is a concern, the Tigers 'pen has been even worse, as we saw in last night's late collapse. Take Kansas City (10*). |
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05-11-21 | Mariners +210 v. Dodgers | 4-6 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle over Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Dodgers continue to struggle following another series loss over the weekend and I don't believe they're a gimme in this Interleague series-opener against the Mariners on Tuesday night. Yusei Kikuchi enters this start pitching well for Seattle, having worked seven innings in three of his last four starts, allowing only three earned runs on six hits over 14 innings in his last two outings. The Mariners are 2-1 when he takes the ball on the road this season, where he has recorded a 3.57 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. After a rough rookie campaign, we've seen Kikuchi settle down since the start of last season, holding opposing hitters to a collective .238 batting average last year and a .212 mark so far in 2021. Kikuchi has always induced ground balls at a solid rate, and checks in having recorded a 53.4% ground ball percentage this season - more than 10% higher than the MLB average. Walker Buehler will take the ball for Los Angeles. As well as he has pitched, the Dodgers are just 3-3 in his six starts, including 1-2 here at home. Interestingly, Buehler has posted a 45.6% hard-hit ball percentage so far this season. His walks are down but as he attacks more of the zone, it seems that opposing hitters are having a little more success getting good wood on the ball. Note that he posted an incredible .178 opponents batting average last season but that average is up to .234 this season. If the Mariners can chase Buehler here, they can get to a Dodgers 'pen that has struggled for the most part this season, recording a 4.10 ERA with that number rising to 5.84 over their last seven games. Take Seattle (10*). |
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05-11-21 | Royals -126 v. Tigers | Top | 7-8 | Loss | -126 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
MLB A.L. Central Game of the Year. My selection is on Kansas City over Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. |
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05-11-21 | Cubs +168 v. Indians | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago over Cleveland at 6:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Indians have been playing well lately, reeling off six wins in their last seven games but they were also just no-hit by Wade Miley two games back and following a couple of perhaps ill-timed off days, I'm willing to fade them here, even with ace Shane Bieber taking the ball. Cubs starter Adbert Alzolay is by no means a household name, but he enters this start pitching well, having allowed just four earned runs on seven hits over 11 innings in his last two outings - both resulting in Cubs victories. Alzolay has now held opposing hitters to a collective .192 batting average over the course of his big league career. He's improved on both his strikeout and walk percentages this season and now checks in sporting a K% nearly 7% higher than the MLB average for his career. After posting a walk percentage right around 15% in limited action in each of the last two seasons, he's dropped that number to 7.0% here in 2021. There's not much negative I can say about Indians ace Shane Bieber. He's off to another fine start this season, but Cleveland certainly isn't invincible when he takes the ball, noting they lost his last home start by a 2-1 score against the Yankees despite the fact he gave up just two runs over seven frames. Note also that the Indians are just 6-12 when playing at home after winning five or six of their last seven games over the last two seasons. Take Chicago (10*). |
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05-10-21 | Rangers +129 v. Giants | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on Texas over San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Monday. We won with the Rangers in Kyle Gibson's last start and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as they look to stay hot in San Francisco. Gibson is off to an incredible start and I believe this is another matchup he can handle on Monday night. He's always been a ground ball pitcher and has recorded a 52.2% ground ball percentage this season - more than 8% higher than the MLB average. He hasn't posted a fly ball percentage higher than 18.4% since his rookie season in 2013 and has held true to that so far this year with a 15.7% mark, nearly 7% lower than the MLB average. The Giants had their hot streak at the plate stopped by the Padres pitching staff in yesterday's 11-1 loss. Here, they'll try to keep pace with a Rangers club that has posted an incredible 11-4 record against left-handed starters this season. Alex Wood is the southpaw that will take the ball for San Francisco on Monday. Like Gibson, he's off to a fine start here in 2021 but I do believe that regression is coming and he draws a tough matchup here. After allowing opposing hitters to bat a collective .291 in 2019 and .304 in 2020, they've hit just .163 against him this season. That's not a sustainable trend. Keep in mind, this is a guy pitching for his third team in as many years. The Giants took a flyer on him this season, paying him $3M to earn a spot in the rotation. I'm simply willing to bet we see some of that regression to the mean starting on Monday against Texas. Take Texas (10*). |
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05-10-21 | Reds v. Pirates +127 | 14-1 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on Pittsburgh over Cincinnati at 6:35 pm et on Monday. We won with the Pirates in an underdog role yesterday as they avoided the sweep in Chicago. Here, we'll back them again as they return home and look to avenge an early season series sweep at the hands of the Reds. Cincinnati dropped below .500 on the season with Saturday's loss in Cleveland, one night after Wade Miley tossed a no-hitter. Here, the Reds will turn to Tyler Mahle, who is off to a terrific start this season. While Mahle has pitched well, the Reds really aren't hitting right now and have one of the weakest bullpens in the majors having posted a collective 5.77 ERA. Mitch Keller has gotten off to an uneven start for the Pirates this season but was terrific in his most recent outing, tossing 5 2/3 innings of two-hit, shutout ball in a 2-1 victory in San Diego. In Keller's lone previous start at home against the Reds he gave up just one earned run over six innings in a 3-2 Pirates victory. In fact, the Buccos check in 9-4 in their last 13 games against the Reds here at PNC Park. Take Pittsburgh (10*). |
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05-09-21 | Pirates +155 v. Cubs | 6-5 | Win | 155 | 7 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on Pittsburgh over Chicago at 2:20 pm et on Sunday. I like the way this one sets up for the Pirates as they look to salvage the finale of this series in Chicago. Tyler Anderson has been an undervalued commodity for the Buccos so far this season. He owns a 3.24 ERA and 1.14 WHIP and his advanced stats are even better. Anderson has been better than the MLB average in terms of both hard-hit ball percentage and exit velocity off opposing bats while limiting opposing hitters to a collective .225 batting average. He's improved on his strikeout and walk rate and has posted a solid 2.2% home run percentage. Kyle Hendricks will counter for Chicago. He's off to a tough start this season having recorded a 37.4% ground ball percentage - well south of his career average in that department. He has also had a tough time keeping the ball in the park, posting an 8.0% home run percentage and a .315 opponents batting average. The Pirates have been right there with the Cubs in the first two games of this series, losing both games by 3-2 scores. Look for them to get over the hump on Sunday afternoon. Take Pittsburgh (10*). |
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05-09-21 | Diamondbacks +275 v. Mets | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona over New York at 1:10 pm et on Sunday. I'll take a shot with the slumping D'Backs here as they look to avoid a second consecutive sweep on the road. The Mets are massive favorites here with Jacob DeGrom taking the ball but it's worth noting that they've managed to win just five of his last 11 starts going back to last August. There's nothing negative I can say about New York's ace but for whatever reason we rarely see the Mets offense show up when he takes the hill. Riley Smith will be tasked with keeping the D'Backs in this one. He has more than held his own through his first 40 1/3 big league innings, recording a 34.7% hard-hit ball percentage and 87.9 mph exit velocity off opposing bats. He's been better than the MLB average in terms of walk percentage while also posting a terrific 1.8% home run percentage. I'm confident Smith can at least give his slumping club a shot in this one and we'll look for the Mets offense to let DeGrom down once again. Take Arizona (10*). |
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05-08-21 | Dodgers v. Angels +131 | 14-11 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on the Angels over the Dodgers at 9:05 pm et on Saturday. The Dodgers are a mess right now, losers of 10 of their last 12 games and while they appear to be in good position to snap their current four-game skid behind Clayton Kershaw on Saturday, I'm not sure it will play out that way on the field. The Angels snapped a losing skid of their own last night, winning for the first time in six games. Tonight they'll turn to Dylan Bundy, who is quickly becoming one of the top arms on their staff. Bundy was quietly terrific last season, finishing top-nine in A.L. Cy Young Award voting. He's picked up right where he left off this season, recording a 26.8% hard-hit ball percentage and 84.6 mph exit velocity off opposing bats - both considerably better than the MLB average. He's held opposing hitters to a collective .224 batting average after posting a stellar .208 opponents batting average last season. Kershaw is off to a fine start as well but has been given three runs or less of support in four of his last five starts. The Angels have gone 2-5 against left-handed starters this season but there's been some bad luck involved in that as they actually average slightly more runs per game (4.7) against southpaw starters than against righties. Take the Angels (10*). |
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05-08-21 | Blue Jays +135 v. Astros | 8-4 | Win | 135 | 9 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto over Houston at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. After getting drummed in the opener of this series last night I look for the Blue Jays to respond with a victory of their own on Saturday. Steven Matz has been solid for the Jays in the early going this season, checking in with a 48.3% ground ball percentage and a .238 opponents batting average. He'll be up against Astros starter Cristian Javier, who owns an eye-popping 1.75 ERA and 0.90 WHIP but has also posted a 42.4% hard-hit ball percentage and 37.3% fly ball percentage. After recording a lofty 5.1% home run percentage during his rookie campaign last year he's brought that number down to 1.0% so far this season but I'm expecting some regression to the mean in that department. Note that the Jays check in 16-8 when revenging a loss where their opponent scored 10 runs or more over the last three seasons, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 2.2 runs in that situation. Take Toronto (10*). |
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05-07-21 | White Sox v. Royals +143 | 3-0 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on Kansas City over Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Friday. The Royals will be happy to face a team other than the Indians after getting swept in a four-game series. On Friday they'll hand the ball to Brad Keller, who has struggled in the early going this season, but has still managed to alternate team wins and losses in his six starts to date. Note that the Royals are 10-2 all-time with Keller starting at home against A.L. Central opponents, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.7 runs. Meanwhile, Carlos Rodon owns a career 3-4 team record in seven starts against the Royals. He's off to a tremendous start this season, including of course a no-hitter. I do think some regression is coming, however, noting that the has recorded a 41.3% hard-hit ball percentage and 28.3% fly ball percentage - both considerably higher than the MLB average. The Kansas City bullpen is a concern here but it's not as if the White Sox 'pen has been much better. In fact, Chicago has already posted seven blown saves compared to the Royals five. Take Kansas City (10*). |
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05-07-21 | Nationals +170 v. Yankees | 11-4 | Win | 170 | 12 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington over New York at 7:05 pm et on Friday. The Yankees are coming off an emotional series win over the Astros that ended on a sour note with a loss yesterday afternoon. I believe New York is overvalued here again on Friday, especially considering the Nationals are coming in off a home series sweep at the hands of the Braves. Most won't give the Nats' a chance here but I believe they have a good shot at stealing a victory in the Bronx. Note that Washington is a profitable 35-33 as a road underdog over the last three seasons, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 0.5 runs. Pat Corbin will take the ball for the Nats' on Friday. He's certainly off to an uneven start this season but there is some reason for optimism as he worked seven innings and allowed just two earned runs last time out. We're starting to see his ground ball rate creep back up toward his stellar career 48.2% ground ball percentage. I do think we'll continue to see some positive regression to the mean for the veteran left-hander and here he'll face a Yankees team that is just 4-4 and averaging 4.5 runs per game against left-handed starters this season. Jameson Taillon hasn't pitched particularly well for the Yanks, recording a 31.7% ground ball percentage and a 35.0% fly ball percentage - a recipe for disaster at Yankee Stadium. New York has won just twice in his five starts this season. Take Washington (10*). |
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05-06-21 | Diamondbacks v. Marlins OVER 7 | 1-3 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and Miami at 6:40 pm et on Thursday. Both of these lineups have gotten a little healthier this week with the D'Backs welcoming back regular clean-up hitter Christian Walker and the Marlins getting back Brian Anderson. It's been a lopsided series so far with the Marlins doing most of the damage offensively. I look for both teams to take part on Thursday, however, as this total should prove too low. Madison Bumgarner has turned back the clock over his last few starts, most notably tossing a seven-inning no-hitter against the Braves two starts back. I question whether he can keep it up though. Note that the Marlins have hit considerably better against left-handed starters this season (.252 as a team), averaging 4.9 runs per game. Meanwhile, the D'Backs will face right-hander Pablo Lopez, noting that they're averaging 5.2 runs per contest against righty starters this season. Concerning for the Snakes here is their awful bullpen, which entered last night's action having posted a 5.30 ERA on the season, with that number ballooning to 8.58 over their last seven games. The Marlins 'pen has been far better but a 4.14 home ERA (entering last night's game) is nothing to write home about. This has been a reasonably high-scoring series in recent years with the 'over' going 5-2-2 in nine previous meetings over the last three seasons. Take the over (10*). |
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05-06-21 | Blue Jays v. A's UNDER 8.5 | 10-4 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Oakland at 3:35 pm et on Thursday. We saw a high-scoring game between these two teams last night as the Blue Jays prevailed by a 9-4 score to earn their first victory in three tries in this series. I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair on Thursday as Jays ace Hyun-Jin Ryu returns to the hill following a stint on the injured list to face A's veteran Mike Fiers. All indications are that Ryu is good to go after spending the minimum 10 days on the I.L. While the A's do check in sporting a 9-3 record against left-handed starters this season, Ryu will be the best they've faced and it's worth noting that they've actually hit just .218 against southpaw starters. Behind Ryu is a Jays bullpen that has been lights out this season, entering last night's action sporting a collective 2.46 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. Mike Fiers was a little shaky in his season debut for the A's but battled hard and managed to last six innings, allowing three earned runs on six hits while striking out three and walking two. I would expect Fiers to do a good job of eating some innings again here today, setting the table for an A's bullpen that entered last night's action having posted a 1.23 ERA over the last seven games. Take the under (10*). |
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05-06-21 | Brewers -115 v. Phillies | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 52 m | Show |
MLB Getaway Day Game of the Month. My selection is on Milwaukee over Philadelphia at 1:05 pm et on Thursday. The Phillies jumped ahead 5-0 in the first inning last night and held on for a 5-4 victory in a game they probably shouldn't have won. That was Philadelphia's third straight win to open this series but I like the Brewers to salvage the series finale on Thursday afternoon. Brandon Woodruff will be responsible for trying to turn the tide for the Brew Crew here and he should be up to the challenge against a Phillies club he's faced three times over the course of his career, giving up just one earned run on three hits over 18 innings of work. Of course, Woodruff has been terrific this season and checks in sporting an 18-4 team record in the first half of the season over the last two seasons, with the Brewers outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 2.2 runs. By contrast, Phillies starter Zack Wheeler has posted a 10-22 team record in the first half over the course of his career, with his teams outscored by an average margin of 1.5 runs. While the Brewers have a slight edge in terms of starters here, they also own a more considerable edge in the bullpen, even if it hasn't gone their way in this series to date. Entering last night's action, the Milwaukee bullpen had posted a 3.00 ERA over the last seven games. By contrast, the Phillies 'pen entered last night's contest having recorded a collective 5.09 ERA over its last seven games. While it did get the job done last night, it wasn't without major difficulty as the Brewers threatened virtually every inning. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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05-05-21 | Blue Jays v. A's -119 | 9-4 | Loss | -119 | 12 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oakland over Toronto at 9:40 pm et on Wednesday. The A's have taken the first two matchups in this series and I like them to prevail in the third as well on Wednesday night. Robbie Ray will take the ball for Toronto. He's been reasonably solid in the early going this season, seemingly figuring out the control issues that plagued him last year. Catcher Alejandro Kirk has been credited with helping Ray find the strike zone, working all four of Ray's starts this season. However, now Kirk is on the 10-day I.L. Note that Ray has recorded a less than impressive 47.6% hard-hit ball percentage and 91.7 mph exit velocity off opposing bats this season. He has also seen his home run percentage creep up to 4.4% - 1.4% higher than the MLB average. Oakland will counter with Chris Bassitt on Wednesday, as he looks to string together a fifth straight team victory. If you follow my plays regularly you know that I'm high on Bassitt and we won with the 'under' in his most recent outing. Bassitt has recorded a 35.4% hard-hit ball percentage and 87.9 mph exit velocity off opposing bats this season - both considerably better than the MLB average. He has also posted a 45.8% ground ball percentage which would match a career-best in that department. Working behind Bassitt is an A's bullpen that entered last night's action having posted a sub-1.80 ERA over the last seven games. Take Oakland (10*). |
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05-05-21 | Astros +1.5 v. Yankees | 3-6 | Loss | -154 | 11 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston +1.5 runs over New York at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Astros couldn't contend with the Yankees (or their fans) last night, falling in blowout fashion in the series-opener. I do look for Houston to bounce back on Wednesday, however, as they send Luis Garcia to the hill against Jordan Montgomery. Garcia has been a bit of a mystery to opposing hitters during his young big league career, holding them to a collective .184 batting average in 32 1/3 innings of work. Here this season he's made five appearances, three of them starts, and has posted a 2.70 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. Garcia has recorded a 34.6% hard-hit ball percentage and 86.3 mph exit velocity off opposing bats not to mention better than MLB average strikeout and walk percentages. Yankees starter Jordan Montgomery has been good but certainly not great during the early going this season. His strikeouts are down and his walks are up while he's also posted an inflated 4.6% home run percentage here in 2021. While the Yankees bullpen has been terrific, I'm confident the Astros can scratch together enough offense against Montgomery to keep this one close at the very least. Take Houston +1.5 runs (10*). |
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05-05-21 | Astros v. Yankees UNDER 9 | 3-6 | Push | 0 | 10 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and New York at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. We saw last night's game between these two teams creep 'over' the total thanks to a seven-run outburst from the Yankees. Here, I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair as the Astros send Luis Garcia to the hill against Jordan Montgomery. Garcia has perplexed opposing hitters in the early stages of his MLB career, posting a 2.78 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. He's also recorded a .184 opponents batting average in 32 1/3 big league innings not to mention a better than average 36.0% hard-hit ball percentage. Working behind Garcia is an Astros bullpen that entered last night's action having recorded a collective 1.71 ERA over its last seven games. Jordan Montgomery is off to a bit of an up and down start for the Yankees this season. There are some positives to take away, most notably Montgomery's 46.7% ground ball percentage and .214 opponents batting average. For his career, Montgomery has recorded a 34.2% hard-hit ball percentage, 4.5% lower than the MLB average. The Yankees bullpen has been elite this season with a collective 2.30 ERA entering last night's action. Take the under (10*). |
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05-05-21 | Brewers -130 v. Phillies | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -130 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
National League Non-Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Milwaukee over Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. I really like the way this one sets up for the Brewers as they look to get back at the Phillies after dropping the first two games in the series. Freddy Peralta will get the start for Milwaukee. He's been terrific, posting a 2.25 ERA and 1.00 WHIP through six appearances, five starts this season. It gets better as Peralta has recorded a stellar 27.5% hard-hit ball percentage - nearly 12% better than the MLB average. After holding opposing hitters to a collective .204 batting average last season he's been even better in early returns here in 2021, recording a .146 opponents batting average. Working behind Peralta is a Brewers bullpen that while not great overall this season, did enter last night's action having posted a collective 3.00 ERA over their last seven games. It's been a different story for the Phillies as their 'pen has posted a collective ERA north of five (entering last night's action). Chase Anderson will get the start for them on Wednesday. As I've noted before this season, he's pitching for his fourth different team since breaking in with the D'Backs in 2014. He hasn't fared particularly well this season as his strikeout rate is down and his walk rate is up while he's recorded a 43.3% hard-hit ball percentage, a 29.9% line drive percentage and a 28.4% fly ball percentage. Here, he'll face a Brewers lineup that is getting healthier with Lorenzo Cain returning to a starting role two nights ago before pinch-hitting in last night's contest. While Milwaukee has lost the first two games in this series it is still a solid 9-6 on the road this season. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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05-05-21 | Giants v. Rockies UNDER 10.5 | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
MLB N.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between San Francisco and Colorado at 3:10 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a pair of high-scoring games between these two teams in yesterday's double-header at Coors Field, totaling 16 and 14 runs. I expect a different story to unfold on Wednesday, however. Logan Webb gets the nod for the Giants. He's been effective so far in his third big league season, recording a 32.9% hard-hit ball percentage and an 85.7 mph exit velocity off opposing bats - both considerably better than the MLB average. He's also inducing ground balls at a tremendous rate, having posted a 58.5% ground ball percentage. That's not to mention a solid 22.8% strikeout percentage, which would be a career-high. Jon Gray has been even better for the Rockies. A former top-six Rookie of the Year candidate in 2016, Gray has been in excellent form through six starts this season, posting a 3.15 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. Gray has recorded a 30.3% hard-hit ball percentage and a 50.0% ground ball percentage. After posting a home run percentage 3.0% or higher in each of the last three seasons he's got that number down to 2.1% so far this season while holding opposing hitters to a collective .213 batting average. While neither bullpen is anything to write home about, I'm confident the starters can do enough to help keep this one 'under' the lofty total. Take the under (10*). |
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05-05-21 | White Sox v. Reds -123 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cincinnati over Chicago at 12:35 pm et on Wednesday. The White Sox shook off a losing series against the Indians and delivered a 9-0 knockout of the Reds last night, taking full advantage of ineffective Cincinnati starter Jeff Hoffman. The Reds were certainly ripe for a letdown in that game after a thrilling 13-12 extra innings victory over the Cubs in their previous game. Here, I look for Cincinnati to bounce back in an early afternoon start on getaway day. Dallas Keuchel gets the start for Chicago on Wednesday. He turned back the clock and finished fifth in A.L. Cy Young Award voting last season but hasn't been able to regain that magic so far in 2021, posting a 4.65 ERA and 1.32 WHIP through his first six starts, spanning 31 innings of work. Keuchel's strikeouts are down and his walks are up and he's recorded a hard-hit ball percentage of 40.6% - nearly 3% higher than the MLB average. He's worked more than five innings just twice in his six starts which could spell trouble as the White Sox bullpen has posted a collective ERA north of five on the road this season. Sonny Gray is still rounding into form after missing time due to injury. Last time out he racked up a season-high 11 strikeouts so it certainly appears that he's getting there. Note that Gray has posted an uncharacteristically-high home run percentage of 4.7% (his career mark is less than half of that) but has also recorded a solid 33.3% hard-hit ball percentage. We can anticipate continued positive regression from Gray, who is just one season removed from finishing top-seven in N.L. Cy Young Award voting. Take Cincinnati (10*). |
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05-05-21 | White Sox v. Reds OVER 8 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 27 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Cincinnati at 12:35 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a lopsided result between these two teams last night as the White Sox cruised to a 9-0 victory. I expect both offenses to take part in today's contest, however, leading to a relatively high-scoring game. Dallas Keuchel will take the ball for Chicago. He turned back the clock and delivered a fine 2020 campaign, finishing fifth in A.L. Cy Young Award voting. He hasn't been able to regain that magic so far this season, despite a few strong outings, posting a 4.65 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. Keuchel's strikeout rate is down and his walk rate is up. He's still inducing ground balls at a solid rate but he has also recorded a hard-hit ball percentage north of 40%. Perhaps the biggest concern is the fact that he's yet to last beyond the sixth inning in any of his six starts, which should mean we'll see plenty of the White Sox bullpen, which owns an ERA north of five on the road this season. Sonny Gray missed time due to injury at the start of the season and has yet to really round into form, although he is coming off an 11-strikeout performance last time out. He has yet to last through six innings in any of his three starts this season and again that's a concern as the Reds bullpen owns a collective ERA north of six at home this season. We didn't see the slugfest most envisioned in the opener of this series last night as only one team showed up. Here, I look for both to contribute to what should be a high-scoring afternoon at the park. Take the over (10*). |
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05-04-21 | Blue Jays v. A's UNDER 9 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Oakland at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday. Last night's series-opener between these two clubs crept 'over' the total by half a run but I look for a lower-scoring affair on Tuesday night in Oakland. The Blue Jays aren't hitting with much consistency on the road this season, entering this series batting a collective .213 while averaging 3.3 runs per game. The A's haven't been much better at home, entering the series hitting a collective .211 while averaging 4.2 runs per game here in Oakland. We have a matchup of two left-handed starters tonight with Anthony Kay taking the ball for the Jays against Cole Irvin. Kay got roughed up in his season debut but it wasn't all doom and gloom as he did record a 23.1% hard-hit ball percentage and 81.7 mph exit velocity off opposing bats while inducing ground balls at a tremendous rate of 61.5%. I expect him to settle down and do a better job of keeping runs off the board here. Cole Irvin counters for Oakland. The former Phillie has had a tough time out of the gate as well, with his 49.4% hard-hit ball percentage most concerning. I do like the way he has battled, however, actually allowing only 11 earned runs in 27 innings of work. Also encouraging is the fact that he's issued just four walks in those 27 frames. I don't expect him to have all that long of a leash in this one and working behind him is a solid A's bullpen. Take the under (10*). |
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05-04-21 | Indians v. Royals OVER 9 | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Kansas City at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. PLEASE NOTE: Phil Maton will now get the start for the Indians. The original play on the 'over' stands. Maton owns an exit velocity off opposing bats north of 91 mph and a hard-hit ball percentage above 41% this season. He also owns a walk rate north of 11%. We saw a high-scoring game between these two clubs in last night's series-opener as the Indians prevailed by an 8-6 score. We've now seen at least 14 runs in four of the Royals last five games and at least 10 runs in all five of those contests. I expect more of the same on Tuesday. The Indians will give the start to Sam Hentges after Logan Allen was demoted following his last start. Hentges has yet to prove himself at the big league level after struggling in the minors in 2019. In limited work this season he has recorded an ugly 52.6% hard-hit ball percentage and 91.7 mph exit velocity off opposing bats. Opponents are hitting .320 against him and he's already been tagged for three home runs in just 5 2/3 innings of work. Mike Minor has been serviceable for the Royals but isn't a strong candidate to manhandle many opposing lineups. Working behind him is a Kansas City bullpen that has struggled for much of the season, posting an ERA of nearly five. Take the over (10*). |
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05-04-21 | Indians v. Royals -134 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -134 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
MLB A.L. Central Game of the Year. My selection is on Kansas City over Cleveland at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. PLEASE NOTE: Phil Maton will now make the start for Cleveland. The play stands as originally posted on Kansas City. With a 42.1% hard-hit ball percentage and 91.4 mph exit velocity off opposing bats and a walk percentage north of 11%. The Indians took the first game of this series last night, their second straight victory, but I look for the Royals to answer back on Tuesday night. Sam Hentges will take the ball for the Indians. He was considered a top-20 prospect for the Indians last season but the jury is still out as to whether he's a viable option in the rotation. He was never able to prove himself in the minors, struggling mightily in Double-A ball two seasons ago prior to the Covid shutdown. Out of the bullpen this season he has labored through 5 2/3 innings of work, allowing eight hits, including three home runs. While we're talking about a small sample size, the big left-hander has recorded an ugly 52.6% hard-hit ball percentage and 91.7 mph exit velocity off opposing bats. Despite his 57.9% ground ball percentage, he has posted a .320 opponents' batting average. Veteran Mike Minor will counter for Kansas City. He's off to a very average start to the season but that's about par for the course for the left-hander. Minor has faced the Indians twice during his career with both of those starts coming in 2019. In those two starts he allowed just 10 hits and one earned run over 15 innings, including a start here in Kansas City where he outdueled Shane Bieber in a 4-2 victory. Minor has generally fared better in the first half of the season compared to the second half, with his teams outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.8 runs per game in his last 21 first half starts. Note that the Indians are just 5-7 and hitting a collective .184 against left-handed starting pitchers this season. Take Kansas City (10*). |
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05-04-21 | Rangers +1.5 v. Twins | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on Texas +1.5 runs over Minnesota at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a tight ball game between these two teams in last night's series-opener as the Twins prevailed by a 6-5 score. I expect another close game on Tuesday with the Rangers having a good shot at evening the series with Kyle Gibson on the hill. Gibson had a terrific spring and he's picked up right where he left off during the regular season, posting a 2.16 ERA and 1.14 WHIP through six starts, spanning 33 1/3 innings of work. The former Twin hasn't been doing it with smoke and mirrors either. He's recorded a 32.3% hard-hit ball percentage and a 53.1% ground ball percentage. While we're bound to see some regression over time, I do think he's well-positioned to turn in another fine outing on Tuesday. J.A. Happ will counter for Minnesota. He had a miserable spring but has posted a 1.96 ERA and 0.83 WHIP through four regular season outings. I do think there's some reason for concern, however. Note that Happ has recorded a 40.3% hard-hit ball percentage and 90.9 mph exit velocity off opposing bats - both worse than the MLB average. His 40.3% fly ball percentage doesn't really line up with his 2.3% home run percentage, noting that he's been worse than the MLB average over the course of his career in terms of home run rate. With all of that said, he's held opposing hitters to a collective .150 batting average - I'm expecting some considerable regression in that department moving forward. While the Rangers are 13-16 overall, they've gone 9-4 against left-handed starters, outscoring the opposition by 1.0 run per game on average. Take Texas +1.5 runs (10*). |
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05-03-21 | Blue Jays v. A's UNDER 8.5 | 4-5 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Oakland at 9:40 pm et on Monday. We won with the 'over' in the A's 7-5 win over the Orioles yesterday but I'll go the other way and back the 'under' as they welcome the streaking Blue Jays to Oakland on Monday. Steven Matz will take the ball for Toronto, which checks in off a series sweep of the Braves in Dunedin. Matz is coming off a rough outing against the Nationals last week but his overall numbers this season remain strong. Matz has recorded a 36.0% hard-hit ball percentage and a 49.3% ground ball percentage, both considerably better than the MLB average. His fly ball percentage does sit north of 30% which is a concern, but perhaps not quite as much of one pitching here at pitcher-friendly Oakland Coliseum. Matz has improved on both his opponents batting average and his home run percentage this season and I like him in this bounce-back spot on Monday. Frankie Montas has had a couple of brutal outings against the Dodgers and Twins but has been sharp in his other three trips to the hill, working six innings and allowing three earned runs or less in each of those starts. Montas had major command issues in the early stages of his career but had sorted those problems out prior to a down 2020 campaign that saw him issue 3.9 walks per nine innings. He's bounced back strong in that department this season, dropping that walk rate to 2.6 per nine innings. Opponents are hitting .286 off of him and he's recorded a 5.3% home run percentage but I expect some positive regression to the mean in those departments moving forward, noting again two ugly starts have spoiled his overall numbers. Take the under (10*). |
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05-02-21 | Angels v. Mariners UNDER 8.5 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Seattle at 4:10 pm et on Sunday. We've seen a pair of high-scoring contests to open this series but I'm expecting a different story to unfold on Sunday afternoon in Seattle. Dylan Bundy has gotten off to a terrific start for the Angels this season, picking up right where he left off last year when he finished ninth in A.L. Cy Young Award voting. Bundy has recorded an incredible 30.0% hard-hit ball percentage and 86.1 mph exit velocity off opposing bats this season. After holding opposing hitters to a collective .208 batting average last season he has posted a .221 opponents' batting average this year. Justus Sheffield will counter for Seattle. His numbers aren't nearly as positive as Bundy's but I'm willing to take a flyer on him in a key bounce-back spot here. Note that Sheffield continues to induce ground balls at a solid rate, with a career ground ball percentage of 50.3% - over 7% higher than the MLB average. He has improved on his walk rate in each of the last two seasons, bringing it down to 3.3 walks per nine innings so far this season (the MLB average is 3.8). The Angels are coming off a big night at the dish last night but have generally been quiet, scoring four runs or less in nine of their last 11 games overall. Take the under (10*). |
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05-02-21 | Orioles v. A's OVER 8 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
MLB A.L. Non-Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Baltimore and Oakland at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. The Orioles bats finally woke up and disposed of the A's 8-4 in yesterday's contest, their second straight victory to open the series. I expect to see plenty of offense on Sunday as well as the A's look to punch back against Bruce Zimmermann. We're starting to get a better picture of what to expect from Zimmermann at the big league level after he pitched just seven innings in 2020. Here in 2021 he has worked 25 1/3 innings with opposing hitters batting a collective .320 against him. He has recorded a 44.7% hard-hit ball percentage and 89.8 mph exit velocity off opposing bats - both well north of the MLB averages. Zimmermann isn't missing many bats with a 16.2% strikeout percentage not to mention a 30.6% line drive percentage. While the A's have been slumping offensively I do think they can break out against the O's left-hander today. Sean Manaea will get the nod for Oakland. He got off to a rocky start this season but has settled down over his last couple of starts. While he has recorded a stellar 35.4% hard-hit ball percentage so far this season, he has feasted on slumping lineups including Detroit, Minnesota and Tampa Bay in his last three starts. The O's certainly showed signs of busting out with an eight-run performance yesterday (every player in their lineup recorded a hit). Noting that Manaea owns a career hard-hit ball percentage nearly 5% higher than the MLB average, including a 45.2% mark last season, I believe some regression is in order in coming starts. The 'under' is 3-2 in this matchup so far this season but the 'over' has still cashed in seven of the last 11 meetings in the series. The 'over' is also 9-7 in all A's home games this season. Take the over (10*). |
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05-02-21 | Marlins v. Nationals OVER 7 | 1-3 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Washington at 1:05 pm et on Sunday. This has the potential to be a pitcher's duel but I'll go the contrarian route and back the 'over' as I feel the total will prove too low. Trevor Rogers had a terrific spring and he's picked up right where he left off during the regular season, posting a 1.29 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. However, a closer look does provide some reason for concern. Note that Rogers has recorded a 45.8% hard-hit ball percentage and an inflated 30.5% fly ball percentage - more than 8% higher than the MLB average. He's still managed to keep the ball in the park for the most part, posting a 0.8% home run percentage but some regression to the mean should be in order after he recorded a 3.9% home run percentage last season. Max Scherzer is once again mowing them down with a 32.8% strikeout percentage but like Rogers, he has also struggled to keep the ball on the ground, recording a 22.5% ground ball percentage and 39.4% fly ball percentage through his first 30 innings of work this season. With Rogers having posted a .188 opponents batting average and Scherzer checking in at .204 I believe some regression is in order. On a fine day at the ballpark on Sunday afternoon, I'm anticipating some runs. Take the over (10*). |
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05-01-21 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8.5 | 14-6 | Loss | -130 | 13 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and Arizona at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. The D'Backs have scored 12 runs in the first two games in this series with last night's game creeping 'over' the total by a single run. Here, I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair as the Rockies send Austin Gomber to the hill against Zac Gallen. Gomber was a big piece coming back to the Rockies in the Nolan Arenado trade and while his overall numbers with his new club aren't great (an ERA north of six and a 1.57 WHIP) there's reason to believe he can get on track. Command has been an issue as Gomber has recorded an inflated 18.5% walk percentage but he's held opposing hitters to a collective .207 batting average (after posing a .190 opponents batting average in limited work with the Cardinals last season) and has done a solid job of keeping hitters off balance, recording a 36.1% hard-hit ball percentage. His fly ball percentage is higher than we would like at 32.8% but again, there's reason to believe he can get that in order noting that his career fly ball percentage sits at 22.9%, slightly better than the MLB average. Here, he'll face a D'Backs lineup that has been held to five runs or less in five of its last seven games. Zac Gallen is a star in the making for the D'Backs. He's off to a tremendous start here in 2021, posting a 2.16 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. Opposing hitters are batting a collective .138 against him and while he's posted a slightly above-average fly ball percentage, he's done a good job of keeping the ball in the park with a 1.5% home run percentage. The Rockies have scored three runs or less in four of the first five games on their current road trip. Take the under (10*). |
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05-01-21 | Dodgers -124 v. Brewers | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -124 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
N.L. Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles over Milwaukee at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. The Dodgers bats have gone silent in the first two games of this series and they draw an even tougher matchup against Brewers ace Brandon Woodruff on Saturday night. With that being said, I like them to bounce back and avoid a third straight loss at the hands of the Brew Crew behind another strong performance from Dustin May. May had a terrific spring and he's picked up right where he left off during the regular season, posting a 2.53 ERA and 0.94 WHIP through 21 1/3 innings of work. May is rounding into a terrific ground ball pitcher, after recording a 53.4% ground ball percentage last season he's improved that number to 56.3% so far this year. He's held opposing hitters to a collective .188 batting average while recording an incredible 37.2% strikeout percentage. While the Brewers have won the first two games in this series, like the Dodgers, they're also struggling at the plate right now, still missing two of their best hitters in Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich. Brandon Woodruff has actually faced the Cubs in three of his first five starts this season and he's absolutely owned them. There is reason to believe that the Dodgers can scratch together some offense against him here, however. Los Angeles actually faced Woodruff once last October and chased him before the end of the sixth inning, scoring three runs on five hits. Woodruff has posted a 40.0% hard-hit ball percentage and 89.5 mph exit velocity off opposing bats this season, with both numbers checking in just north of the MLB average. His walks have crept up compared to last year with a 7.4% walk percentage but the fact that he has yet to give up a single home run has certainly helped his cause. Note that he posted a 3.1% home run percentage last season, falling right around the MLB average. Interestingly, the Dodgers have gone 29-11 the last 40 times they've faced a starting pitcher that has gone undefeated through five or more starts, as is the case with Woodruff, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.9 runs. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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05-01-21 | Indians v. White Sox OVER 7.5 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 9 m | Show |
MLB A.L. Central Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Chicago at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. I'm expecting plenty of offense as the Indians and White Sox square off in the second game of their weekend series on Saturday afternoon in Chicago. Triston McKenzie will get the start for the Indians. While he has held opposing hitters to a collective .220 batting average in 16 2/3 innings of work this season, he hasn't pitched well by any stretch. Note that he has recorded a 54.1% hard-hit ball percentage and 94.3 mph exit velocity off opposing bats. McKenzie has posted a ridiculously low 10.8% ground ball percentage and 40.5% line drive percentage so it should only be a matter of time before that opponents' batting average starts creeping up. The White Sox will welcome the opportunity to face someone other than Tribe ace Shane Bieber here, noting that they've scored at least eight runs in four of their last eight games overall. Lance Lynn will get the start for Chicago. If you follow my plays regularly you know that I am high on Lynn. With that being said, there is some reason for concern here. Note that Lynn has recorded a 41.7% hard-hit ball percentage and 90.2 mph exit velocity off opposing bats - both north of the MLB average - while also posting a 29.2% fly ball percentage - nearly six percent higher than the MLB average. Lynn's strikeouts are way up and his walks are way down but we're talking about a very small sample size through just three starts (I realize that goes for all stats mentioned here). We have seen the Indians offense come to life a little bit lately, scoring five runs or more in four of their last five games overall. Take the over (10*). |
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04-30-21 | Orioles v. A's UNDER 8 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Baltimore and Oakland at 9:40 pm et on Friday. Neither of these teams are scoring runs with much consistency right now and I don't expect that to change on Friday night in Oakland. Baltimore will hand the ball to former All-Star and A.L. Rookie of the Year runner-up (in 2019) John Means. He's shaken off a rough spring by getting off to a terrific start during the regular season, posting a 1.50 ERA and 0.90 WHIP through five starts, covering a span of 30 innings. While Means 27.6% fly ball percentage is somewhat concerning it shouldn't really cost him here in the friendly confines of the Oakland Coliseum. After holding opposing hitters to a .220 batting average last season, Means has been even better here in 2021, posting a .171 opponents BA. Here, he faces an A's lineup that has once again gone cold, plating three runs or less in five straight games and traveling back across the country after wrapping up a series in St. Petersburg yesterday afternoon. Mike Fiers returns to the A's rotation on Friday, despite initial reports that he would pitch out of the bullpen. While it's difficult to predict exactly what we'll get from Fiers here, he's a veteran competitor who's coming off a somewhat disappointing 2020 campaign and I think he wants the ball and wants to show the A's he's still well-deserving of his place in the rotation. It's not as if Fiers was awful last season. His ERA approached five but he still recorded a terrific 33.7% hard-hit ball percentage. He's never been a ground ball pitcher, but again that serves him just fine making the majority of his starts in Oakland. Fiers will face an Orioles club that has scored four runs or less in four straight and seven of its last eight games overall. Take the under (9*). |
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04-30-21 | Royals +1.5 v. Twins | Top | 1-9 | Loss | -154 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
MLB Division Run-Line Game of the Month. My selection is on Kansas City +1.5 runs over Minnesota at 8:10 pm et on Friday. I'll grab the insurance run with what I consider to be the superior team in this matchup (for now at least) as the Twins continue to deal with some key absences early in the season and struggle to find their footing. Brady Singer will take the ball for Kansas City. He's made some nice progress over his rookie campaign, which was impressive in its own right. Singer has done a nice job of keeping opposing hitters off balance this season, recording a 33.9% hard-hit ball percentage while also posting a ground ball percentage a shade over 55% after recording a 53.7% in that department last season. His walks are down while his strikeouts are up compared to last year and he's held opposing hitters to a collective .210 batting average. Michael Pineda is off to an up and down start to the campaign and draws a tough Royals lineup here. Pineda has once again had a tough time keeping the ball down, leading to a 32.3% fly ball percentage and a 4.6% home run percentage in the early going this season. He has held opposing hitters to a .193 batting average but we can certainly anticipate some regression to the mean in that department as he owns a career .248 opponents BA, not posting a number lower than that since way back in 2014. With a 43.5% hard-hit ball percentage and an exit velocity off opposing bats nearly 90 mph, look for the Royals to enjoy a solid night at the plate and keep this one within arm's reach at the very least. Take Kansas City +1.5 runs (10*). |
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04-30-21 | Red Sox v. Rangers OVER 8 | 6-1 | Loss | -114 | 12 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Texas at 8:05 pm et on Friday. We saw a relatively low-scoring game between these two teams in the opener of this series last night - the fourth consecutive 'under' result for the Red Sox and the third in a row for the Rangers. I expect a reversal of sorts here as Boston sends Nate Eovaldi to the hill against Koehi Arihara. Eovaldi started his career by doing a tremendous job of keeping the ball in the park and so far this season he hasn't allowed a single home run. I don't think that trend is sustainable, however, noting that he has recorded a home run percentage of over 4.0% in three of his last four seasons (he missed 2017 due to injury). With that being said, Eovaldi has been solid pretty much across the board this season but he still owns a career .268 opponents batting average and the Rangers bats have been waking up a little bit lately, plating 23 runs in their last five games. I'm willing to take a flyer in the Texas bats against the veteran right-hander here. Kohei Arihara is not off to a great MLB start, having recorded an ugly 53.6% hard-hit ball percentage and 93.2 mph exit velocity off opposing bats with opponents hitting a collective .268 against him this season. The Red Sox are slumping a bit at the dish right now but this looks like a high-potential for a breakout spot after getting stymied by Kyle Gibson and his ground ball-inducing exploits last night (as I pointed out in my analysis supporting my play on the Rangers +1.5 runs in that game). Arihara has yet to make it through six innings in a start this season so look for the Red Sox to take a confident approach to the plate tonight. Take the over (10*). |
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04-30-21 | Cubs v. Reds UNDER 9 | 6-8 | Loss | -104 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cincinnati and Chicago at 7:10 pm et on Friday. With the Cubs coming off a high-scoring series in Atlanta perhaps it's no surprise that we're dealing with a relatively high posted total in the opener of this series in Cincinnati. Jake Arrieta will get the nod for the Cubs on Friday. He catches the Reds returning home following a six-game trip that took them to St. Louis and Los Angeles. Cincinnati didn't exactly tear the cover off the ball on that trip, plating a grand total of 17 runs. Arrieta's strikeout rate is up and he's held opposing hitters to a collective .214 batting average through 28 innings of work this season. His fly ball percentage leaves a lot to be desired but I'm confident he can get that on track, noting that he's been a solid ground ball pitcher over the course of his career with a 48.5% ground ball percentage, 4.5% higher than the MLB average. Even though he struggled last season, he still managed to post a terrific 51.8% ground ball percentage. Wade Miley continues to impress for the Reds. He's done a tremendous job of keeping opposing hitters off balance this season, recording a 26.2% hard-hit ball percentage and an 81.9 mph exit velocity off opposing bats. It doesn't get much better than that in those two departments. Not surprisingly, he has also recorded a 55.4% ground ball percentage while holding opposing hitters to a collective .173 batting average. The Cubs bats were hot last night in Atlanta but I'm confident Miley can keep them at bay here (after struggling mightily in his lone start against them - at Wrigley Field mind you - last year). Take the under (10*). |
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04-30-21 | Tigers v. Yankees OVER 7.5 | 0-10 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Detroit and New York at 7:05 pm et on Friday. We won with the 'under' in the Yankees extra inning loss to the Orioles but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'over' as they return home to host the Tigers on Friday. With the 'under' having cashed in four straight and nine of the Yankees last 11 games overall it's only a matter of time before we see their totals start going the other way and shaded a little too low. I believe that's precisely the situation on Friday. Tarik Skubal will get the start for the Tigers. He had a fine spring but hasn't been able to carry it over into the regular season, posting an ERA north of five and a 1.58 WHIP. Skubal could be in trouble against the homer-happy Yankees here, noting that he has recorded a poor 20.7% ground ball percentage and 41.4% fly ball percentage in 19 innings pitched this season. He now owns a career 6.3% home run percentage - nearly twice the MLB average (albeit with a small sample size of 51 career innings pitched). Gerrit Cole is not surprisingly off to a terrific start for the Yankees. He should have his way with the Tigers but it's worth noting that Cole has recorded a 46.2% hard-hit ball percentage and 92.2 mph exit velocity off opposing bats while also posting a 32.3% fly ball percentage - all considerably higher than the MLB average. He has a 0.8% home run percentage so far this season but we should see some regression to the mean in that department moving forward. The 'under' is a perfect 7-0 in Cole's seven career starts against the Pirates but each of his last three outings against them have totaled at least nine runs. Take the over (10*). |
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04-29-21 | Red Sox v. Rangers +1.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
MLB Run-Line Game of the Week. My selection is on Texas +1.5 runs over Boston at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. Two clubs heading in opposite directions will meet on Thursday night in Texas as the Red Sox travel from New York to face the Rangers, who just wrapped up a series with the division-rival Angels. Boston enters riding a three-game winning streak thanks to some outstanding pitching. Here, I'm not sure they'll get such a positive performance from former Ranger Martin Perez. Opponents are hitting .290 against Perez this season, bumping his career opponents batting average all the way up to .283 - 31 points higher than the MLB average. His walk rate is up again after a miserable 2020 campaign in that department, while his strikeout rate remains well below the MLB average. He has always done a fairly good job of keeping opposing hitters off balance and limiting his hard-hit ball percentage but his ability to induce ground balls has dropped off considerably in recent years. So far this season he has recorded a 38.2% ground ball percentage - nearly 6% lower than the MLB average. Kyle Gibson will counter for Texas. He's enjoying a resurgence of sorts, building off an encouraging spring to post a 2.30 ERA and 1.17 WHIP through his first five regular season outings. Gibson has always been a good ground ball pitcher and he's on track for another solid year in that department having recorded a 53.2% ground ball percentage through 27 1/3 innings of work. Gibson's fly ball percentage is all the way down south of 14% so it's no surprise that he's yet to allow a home run this season. Also note that Gibson's strikeouts are up and his walks are down compared to last season and he's held opponents to a .235 collective batting average. While he won't be able to keep it up forever, I do like his chances of keeping the Rangers in the game in a bounce-back spot here tonight. Take Texas +1.5 runs (10*). |
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04-29-21 | Dodgers -152 v. Brewers | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -152 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
MLB Blowout Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles over Milwaukee at 7:40 pm et on Thursday. The Brewers aren't hitting right now and that has a lot to do with the players that currently aren't in their lineup including Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich. They're in tough on Thursday night as they prepare to face Trevor Bauer and send out spot starter Eric Lauer. Lauer should get hit hard in this one as he makes his first appearance of the 2021 season. The former Padres castoff got in very limited work with the Brewers last season and didn't fare well, posting an ERA north of 13 and a 2.36 WHIP in just 11 innings of work. He's been hit hard over the course of his three-year big league career, to the tune of a 41.2% hard-hit ball percentage and 89.4 mph exit velocity off opposing bats - both worse than the MLB average. He's not a ground ball pitcher by any means, with a career ground ball percentage 5% lower than the MLB average. Opposing batters hit a collective .347 off of him in limited action last season and I'm confident we'll see the Dodgers tee off tonight as well after finally waking up late in yesterday's eventual rout of the Reds. Trevor Bauer isn't off to a positive dominant start with his new club but he's certainly been good, and draws an undermanned Brewers lineup as I mentioned. Last year's N.L. Cy Young Award winner has held opposing hitters to a collective .135 batting average here in 2021 after posting a .159 opponents' batting average last season. His walks are down and his strikeouts are up and while he's recorded a relatively high fly ball percentage and home run percentage I would expect that to balance out in due time. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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04-29-21 | A's v. Rays UNDER 8 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 9 m | Show |
MLB American League Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Oakland and Tampa Bay at 1:10 pm et on Thursday. The A's bats have gone cold once again which makes this an opportune time for the Rays to bring up highly-touted left-handed pitching prospect Shane McClanahan for his first big league start. Of course, this won't be McClanahan's first MLB appearance as he got a taste of postseason action last October, making three appearances in the ALDS and World Series. All indications are that McClanahan is ready to make the permanent leap and could actually be fighting for a potential rotation spot should Ryan Yarbrough and Rich Hill continue to struggle. Chris Bassitt will take the ball for the A's. If you've followed my plays regularly you know that I'm high on Bassitt despite his uneven start to the season. Bassitt finished eighth in A.L. Cy Young Award voting last season and will earn just shy of $5M pitching for the A's this season. After a rocky start, he's settled down, recording better than MLB average hard-hit ball, line drive, ground ball and fly ball percentages. He's always done a nice job of keeping the ball in the park and so far this season he's posted a stellar 1.6% home run percentage. Command has been a bit of an issue in the early going but it should only be a matter of time before he works that out, noting that he owns a career walk percentage right around the MLB average. Take the under (10*). |
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04-29-21 | Yankees v. Orioles UNDER 9.5 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Baltimore at 1:05 pm et on Thursday. This has been a relatively low-scoring series, thanks in large part to the absence of the Orioles bats, with the 'under' cashing in each of the last three games. I look for that trend to continue this afternoon as we work with another inflated total. Jordan Montgomery will take the ball for New York. He has held opposing hitters to a collective .190 batting average so far this season while recording better than MLB average hard-hit ball and ground ball percentages. The former A.L. Rookie of the Year Award contender (he finished sixth in voting in 2017) should make quick work of the O's slumping bats this afternoon. Meanwhile, O's starter Jorge Lopez owns an ugly 8.15 ERA and 1.42 WHIP so far this season but it's not all doom and gloom. Lopez has actually recorded a respectable 36.5% hard-hit ball percentage and 87.5 mph exit velocity off opposing bats while inducing ground balls at a solid rate with a 48.1% ground ball percentage. He's been bitten by the home run ball, which has pretty much been par for the course over his big league career, but he has also held opposing hitters to a reasonable .257 batting average. Perhaps he catches a break here with the Yanks fat and happy off consecutive blowout wins on getaway day. Take the under (10*). |
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04-28-21 | Rockies v. Giants UNDER 7 | 3-7 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Wednesday. We've seen a pair of high-scoring contests to open this series and we've gone 1-1 backing the 'over' on Monday before missing with the Giants last night. Here, I'll back the 'under' as we should see a well-pitched game between two left-handed starters. German Marquez will take the ball for the Rockies. He's been terrific in the early going this season, recording a 38.0% hard-hit ball percentage and an 86.0 mph exit velocity off opposing bats. Marquez has always been a good ground ball pitcher and he's been terrific in that regard early this season, recording a 60.8% ground ball percentage - 17.3% higher than the MLB average. His walk percentage is up by I would anticipate some improvement in that department given he owns a career 6.7% walk percentage - 1.8% lower than the MLB average. Alex Wood will continue his comeback for the Giants. He's pitching for his third team in as many seasons after getting in limited work over the last two years. Like Marquez, he's been effective in the early going this season, recording a 28.6% hard-hit ball percentage and 86.6 mph exit velocity. Also like Marquez, he's inducing ground balls at a tremendous rate having recorded a 60.7% ground ball percentage. There's reason to believe he can keep it up as he owns a career ground ball percentage 4.4% higher than the MLB average. Take the under (10*). |
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04-28-21 | Royals -115 v. Pirates | Top | 9-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Game of the Week. My selection is on Kansas City over Pittsburgh at 6:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Royals saw their five-game winning streak come to an end in a 2-1 loss to the Pirates last night. I look for them to start a new streak on Wednesday, however, as they hand the ball to Mike Minor against Mitch Keller. It's easy to forget that Minor is just one season removed from finishing eighth in A.L. Cy Young Award voting in an All-Star campaign with the Rangers in 2019. He was effective last year as well, splitting time with the Rangers and Royals and he's off to a fine start here in 2021. Minor has recorded a better than MLB average 37.7% hard-hit ball percentage and 87.8 mph exit velocity off opposing bats while holding opposing hitters to a collective .232 batting average through four starts, spanning 21 1/3 innings of work. It's been a completely different story for Pirates starter Mitch Keller. He had a miserable spring and hasn't been any better here in the regular season, posting an ERA north of seven and a 1.78 WHIP through four starts, covering a span of 16 1/3 innings. Opposing hitters have teed off on Keller to the tune of a 50.0% hard-hit ball percentage and 93.1 mph exit velocity with his line drive and fly ball percentages both sitting near 30% - considerably worse than the MLB average. For his career, opposing hitters are batting a collective .297 against Keller, 48 points north of the MLB average. Take Kansas City (10*). |
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04-28-21 | Reds v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 | 0-8 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cincinnati and Los Angeles at 4:10 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a high-scoring affair between these two clubs last night as the Reds took a second straight game in the series by a 6-5 score. Clayton Kershaw will be tasked with being the stopper for the Dodgers on Wednesday as they look to end a three-game losing streak. After a miserable spring, Kershaw has taken no time at all to round back into form during the regular season, posting a 2.56 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in 31 2/3 innings of work. While he's not the dominant pitcher he once was, he is coming off a 2020 campaign that saw him finish ninth in N.L. Cy Young Award voting and play a big role in the Dodgers World Series championship. Here this season he's back to inducing ground balls at a solid rate with a 46.0% ground ball percentage and an even more impressive 15.7% line drive percentage. He has held opposing hitters to a collective .218 batting average while recording a terrific 3.2% walk percentage and a 2.4% home run percentage. The Reds will give the nod to Sonny Gray for his third start of the campaign. He missed time in the spring due to injury and is clearly still trying to round into form. I expect that to happen sooner rather than later and note that he has recorded an excellent 33.3% hard-hit ball percentage and 29.3% strikeout percentage through limited work (8.0 innings pitched) so far this season. Walks have been an issue, just as they always have, but we can certainly anticipate some positive regression to the mean when it comes to his 12.2% walk percentage. Note that despite the 'over' cashing in the first two games in this series, the 'under' remains a solid 29-13 in the Reds last 42 games when priced as a road underdog between +125 and +175, as is the case here at the time of writing. Take the under (10*). |
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04-27-21 | Rockies v. Giants -165 | 7-5 | Loss | -165 | 9 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Francisco over Colorado at 9:45 pm et on Tuesday. The Giants have exceeded expectations so far this season, off to a 15-8 start following last night's 12-0 rout of the Rockies. Many expected Colorado to be one of baseball's worst teams and that's held true so far as they check in 8-14 on the campaign. Interestingly, the Rockies had won five of their last seven games prior to last night's setback but all seven of those games were played at home, where they've been a much different team. Chi Chi Gonzalez will get a spot start for the Rockies here. He's been alright in four appearances so far this season but certainly not dominant by any means. That's pretty much par for the course over his big league career. Gonzalez has yet to allow a home run this season but noting he has recorded a 4.0% and 3.3% home run percentage over the last two seasons with the Rockies, we can anticipate some regression to the mean in that department. Also note that his strikeout rate is down while his walk rate is north of 11.0% for the third straight season, albeit with a small sample size. Aaron Sanchez gets his fifth start of the season for the Giants. He's looking to make a comeback to respectability after a cup of coffee with the Astros last season. So far, so good as Sanchez has posted a 1.83 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in 19 2/3 innings of work. He's gotten back to what made him so successful early in his career with the Blue Jays, keeping the ball down in the zone and inducing lots of ground balls. Sanchez has recorded a 61.0% ground ball percentage and 15.3% fly ball percentage so far this season, a perfect recipe for pitching in San Francisco. His strikeout rate is down slightly but his walk rate is down significantly as he seems to have improved his command and should be able to continue to pitch well against a Rockies club that hits a miserable .195 on the road this season. Note that Colorado checks in 4-21 the last 25 times its been on the road revenging a loss where it scored a run or less over the last three seasons, outscored by an average margin of 2.5 runs in that situation. Meanwhile, the Giants are 23-10 after allowing three runs or less in consecutive games over the last three seasons, averaging 5.4 runs per game and outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.9 runs in that spot. Take San Francisco (10*). |
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04-27-21 | Tigers v. White Sox UNDER 8 | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. It's been a long time coming but White Sox ace Lucas Giolito will finally get his opportunity to bounce back from a miserable performance in his last start in Boston eight days ago as he draws a favorable matchup against a weak Tigers lineup. Despite that ugly outing against the Red Sox on Patriots Day, Giolito still owns tremendous numbers across the board this season. He's kept opposing hitters off balance to the tune of a 34.0% hard-hit ball percentage and an 86.3 mph exit velocity off opposing bats. His strikeout percentage sits at 32.1% and while you would assume some regression would be coming in that department, keep in mind he has posted a strikeout percentage north of 30% in each of the last two seasons. Opponents are hitting just .230 against Giolito this season, which is pretty much par for the course in terms of his career numbers as he's held opposing hitters to a collective .222 batting average since breaking into the bigs in 2016. Note that the 'under' is 28-14 in Giolito's last 42 starts against division opponents. Jose Urena will counter for Detroit. He had a strong spring with his new club and while things haven't gone superbly through four regular season starts, he has been serviceable at least. I like the fact that Urena is inducing ground balls at a good clip, having posted a 50.0% ground ball percentage and an even more impressive 12.9% fly ball percentage. While he needs to get his walks down, he has improved considerably on his strikeout rate. Going back to last season with the Marlins, opposing hitters have posted a collective batting average right around .240 against him, which is considerably better than the MLB average. Take the under (10*). |
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04-27-21 | Mariners v. Astros OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -106 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
MLB A.L. West Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and Houston at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a low-scoring contest between these two teams in last night's series opener as the Astros cruised to a 5-2 victory. Note that the 'over' is 28-14 in the Mariners last 42 games as a road underdog priced between +150 and +200 with those games totaling well over 10 runs. We've also seen the 'over' cash at a 17-6 clip in the Mariners last 23 night games played on the road. The Astros have now scored at least five runs in four of their last five games and should be able to keep it going against Mariners starter Marco Gonzales on Tuesday. Opponents are seeing the ball well against the Mariners supposed ace, as he's recorded a 42.6% hard-hit ball percentage and 90.8 mph exit velocity off opposing bats - both well north of the MLB average. His 6.3% home run percentage and 8.3 walk percentage spells trouble against an Astros lineup that can mash here at home. Cristian Javier will counter for Houston. His 36.4% strikeout percentage isn't sustainable in my opinion as he comes off a fantastic performance last time out. I do think it's only a matter of time before his 43.3% hard-hit ball percentage and 26.7% ground ball percentage/40.0% fly ball percentage catches up with him, especially pitching here in Houston. After recording an ugly 5.1% home run percentage in 54 1/3 innings of work last season he's yet to allow a home run here in 2021. Expect that to change on Tuesday. Take the over (10*). |
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04-27-21 | Yankees v. Orioles OVER 9.5 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
MLB A.L. East Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Baltimore at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a relatively low-scoring affair between these two teams in the opener of this series last night. I expect a different story to unfold on Tuesday as the Yankees send Corey Kluber to the hill against Bruce Zimmermann of the Orioles. Kluber is clearly on the downside of what has been a tremendous career. He's posted a 5.40 ERA and 1.93 WHIP through four starts. Most concerning is his 30.4% fly ball percentage and 4.1% home run percentage, especially as he prepares to pitch at hitter-friendly Camden Yards on Tuesday. Kluber's command just hasn't been there since the start of the 2019 season, due to injuries and otherwise. He checks in with an ugly walk percentage north of 15% through four starts this season. Zimmermann has been average at best as a back-end of the rotation starter for the Orioles. Like Kluber he has also posted a worse than MLB average fly ball percentage at 23.5% while inducing ground balls at a poor rate (38.2% ground ball percentage this season). His career home run percentage sits at 5.0% compared to the MLB average of 3.4%. Again, not a good sign as he faces a homer-happy Yankees lineup at Camden Yards. Over the course of Zimmermann's brief big league career, opposing hitters own a collective .269 batting average and .481 slugging percentage against him. Note that the 'over' is 43-26 in the Yankees last 69 division games away from home and 45-29 in the Orioles last 74 games as a home underdog priced +125 or higher. Take the over (10*). |
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04-27-21 | Royals v. Pirates OVER 8 | 1-2 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Kansas City and Pittsburgh at 6:35 pm et on Tuesday. The Royals didn't need a lot of offense to sweep the light-hitting Tigers over the last four days but I look for their offense to come to life in Tuesday's Interleague series-opener in Pittsburgh. Jakob Junis gets the start for Kansas City. While he owns a solid 3.71 ERA and 1.18 WHIP it's probably only a matter of time before we see those numbers inflate considering he has recorded a 52.3% hard-hit ball percentage and 93.9 mph exit velocity off opposing bats. To put it simply, Junis isn't fooling opposing hitters in the early going this season. While his strikeout rate is up, so is his walk rate. Opponents are hitting a collective .230 against him but we can anticipate some regression in that department as he owns a worse than MLB average career opponents' batting average of .271. Tyler Anderson makes his fifth start of the season for the Pirates. As we've noted before, Anderson is pitching for his third club in as many seasons. He's not an awful pitcher by any means but certainly can be taken advantage of by what I would consider an above average Royals lineup. Note that Anderson owns worse than MLB average career numbers in terms of opponents batting average, slugging percentage and on-base percentage and that has held true in the early going this season. He hasn't induced ground balls at better than a 38.9% ground ball percentage since back in 2017 (the MLB average is 43.5%). Expect plenty of offense at PNC Park on Tuesday night. Take the over (10*). |
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04-27-21 | Twins v. Indians UNDER 8 | 4-7 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Cleveland at 6:10 pm et on Tuesday. Last night's series-opener between these two teams found it's way 'over' the total thanks to a walk-off two-run home run from the Indians in extra innings. That's quite simply a risk that has to be factored in these days in MLB (we lost in a similar situation with the Reds hitting a two-run home run in extras against the Dodgers last night, spoiling our 'under' bet). Here, I'm anticipating another well-pitched game. Kenta Maeda has gotten off to a surprisingly horrible start to the season after a terrific spring. The numbers aren't pretty but I'm confident in Maeda's ability to bounce back, noting that he finished second in A.L. Cy Young Award voting last season and also finished third in N.L. Rookie of the Year voting as a member of the Dodgers back in 2016. There is some reason for encouragement as Maeda has recorded a better than MLB average walk percentage at 5.7% so far this season. Opposing hitters are batting a collective .354 against him but we're bound to see some regression as he owns a career .225 opponents' batting average. He should benefit from facing a relatively light-hitting Indians lineup on Tuesday. Aaron Civale will counter for the Indians. If you've followed my plays regularly you know that I've been high on him all season. With that being said, he couldn't make an early 3-0 lead stand up in his most recent start against the Yankees. Here, I look for a positive response from Civale, noting that he has recorded a 33.8% hard-hit ball percentage and 84.0 mph exit velocity off opposing bats while inducing ground balls at a solid rate with a better than MLB average 44.6% ground ball percentage. Civale's walks are up but so are his strikeouts (slightly) and he's held opposing hitters to a collective .161 batting average. Take the under (10*). |
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04-26-21 | Reds v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 | 5-3 | Loss | -118 | 14 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cincinnati and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Monday. Cincinnati got off to a strong start offensively this season but has fallen into a deep slump during a seven-game slide, scoring four runs or less in five of those games. On a positive note, Reds starter Tyler Mahle has seemingly been getting better with each passing year and through four starts here in 2021 has put it all together for a tremendous start to the campaign. Mahle has recorded a 33.3% hard-hit ball percentage and 86.8 mph exit velocity off opposing bats. After opposing batters hit a collective .198 against him in 47 2/3 innings last season, they're hitting a paltry .130 against him this season. While Mahle's command has been a bit of an issue with an 11.3% walk percentage, he has made up for it by posting an incredible 38.8% strikeout percentage. While some regression is certainly in order in that last department, he does catch the Dodgers in a favorable spot here off an emotional series against the Padres following a wild 8-7 extra innings loss last night in which they blew a late 7-1 lead. Julio Urias will be asked to get the Dodgers back on track on Monday and he would appear to be the right one to do it. Urias had a terrific spring and he's picked up right where he left off during the regular season, posting a 2.81 ERA and 0.94 WHIP through four starts. He's not doing it with smoke and mirrors either, as he's recorded an incredible 28.6% hard-hit ball percentage and 86.5 mph exit velocity off opposing bats. He's improved on both his strikeout and walk percentages, albeit with a relatively small sample size, and has held opposing hitters to a collective .211 batting average. For his career, opponents are hitting just .232 against him, nearly 20 points lower than the MLB average. Take the under (10*). |
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04-26-21 | Rockies v. Giants OVER 7.5 | Top | 0-12 | Win | 105 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
N.L. West Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Colorado and San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Monday. The 'under' in San Francisco probably looks like a pretty safe place to put your money at the start of a new week, after all the Giants have posted a 2-7-1 o/u mark at home this season and we already saw a three-game series between these two teams here in San Fran deliver three consecutive 'under' results earlier this season. I'm going to go the contrarian route here, however, noting that we have a very average pitching matchup with Austin Gomber against Anthony DeSclafani and with both teams getting their second look of the season against those starters. Gomber continues to struggle with his command at the big league level, recording an inflated 17.2% walk percentage in the early going this season, moving his career percentage to 11.5% - nearly 3% higher than the MLB average. He has done a nice job of keeping opposing hitters off balance with a 30.8% hard-hit ball percentage but I'm concerned about his 38.5% fly ball percentage and we're bound to see some regression to the mean when it comes to his .143 opponents batting average so far this season. Giants starter Anthony DeSclafani has been hit hard to the tune of a 48.4% hard-hit ball percentage and 91.1 mph exit velocity off opposing bats. He's never been what you would call a ground ball pitcher but so far this season has recorded a ground ball percentage north of 58%. He's been a little less effective with each passing start, however, and I look for him to face a significant challenge against a Rockies club that has been surprisingly tough at the plate lately, scoring five runs or more in five straight and seven of their last nine games overall. Take the over (10*). |
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04-26-21 | Cubs v. Braves UNDER 8.5 | 7-8 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Atlanta at 7:10 pm et on Monday. It's been a case of 'feast or famine' with both of these offenses in the early going this season and I'm expecting runs to come at a premium in Monday night's series-opener in Atlanta. Cubs starter Zach Davies is off to a rough start with his new club which is somewhat surprising after he looked dominant at times in the spring. He labored through his first outing against Atlanta this season, allowing four earned runs on seven hits over four innings. Note that despite Davies' poor performance that game still stayed 'under' the total. Davies' three career starts against Atlanta have all stayed 'under'. There are positives for Davies to draw on here as he has posted a better than MLB average line drive percentage at 22.8% and a respectable 22.8% fly ball percentage. Davies hasn't been a true ground ball pitcher since the early part of his career but his ground ball percentage falls right around the MLB average this season. He catches a break here with the Braves still having a tough time stacking strong performances at the plate, scoring five runs or less in seven of their last eight games. Like Davies, Braves starter Charlie Morton also had a terrific spring and he's off to a fine start to the regular season as well, although there is still room for improvement. Morton is a true ground ball pitcher and has recorded a 48.3% ground ball percentage and 15.5% fly ball percentage through four starts. His strikeouts are up and his walks are down and he's held opposing hitters to a collective .235 batting average. Take the under (10*). |
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04-25-21 | Padres v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 8-7 | Loss | -118 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
MLB Sunday Night Baseball Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between San Diego and Los Angeles at 7:05 pm et on Sunday. This has been a low-scoring series save for last night's 'over' result, and I'm anticipating another well-pitched game in Sunday's series finale. Joe Musgrove will take the ball for the Padres. He of course grabbed headlines a couple of weeks ago by throwing the first no-hitter of the season. While he suffered a bit of a letdown in his next start against his former team, the Pirates, he has bounced right back since and checks in sporting some terrific numbers through four starts this season. Musgrove has done a terrific job of keeping the ball down in the zone and inducing ground balls, recording a 51.9% ground ball percentage and 17.3% fly ball percentage this season. While we're bound to see some regression to the mean at some point as he's held opposing hitters to a collective .124 batting average, I will point out that Musgrove does own better than MLB average career numbers in terms of home run, strikeout and walk percentage. Here, he faces a Dodgers club that has scored three runs or less in six of its last seven games, topping out at five over that stretch (in last night's game). Dustin May will counter for Los Angeles. Remember, he finished fifth in N.L. Cy Young Award voting last season but for now is overshadowed by Clayton Kershaw and Walker Buehler in the Dodgers stacked rotation. May is off to a fine start here in 2021. His strikeouts are up and his walks are down and he's held opponents to a collective .217 batting average. While he has posted a worse-than-average hard-hit-ball percentage of 42.1%, I'm not overly concerned as he's inducing ground balls at a solid rate with a 50.8% ground ball percentage and 15.8% fly ball percentage. The Padres scratched together six runs in Friday's victory but have been held to four runs or less in five of their last six games overall. Take the under (10*). |
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04-25-21 | Reds +112 v. Cardinals | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 39 m | Show |
MLB N.L. Central Game of the Year. My selection is on Cincinnati over St. Louis at 2:15 pm et on Sunday. The Reds have now lost six games in a row following yesterday's 2-0 setback (we won with the 'under' in that game). I'll back them on Sunday, however, as they send Luis Castillo to the hill against Jack Flaherty. Castillo had a fine spring but hasn't gotten off to the start he had hoped for here in the regular season, posting an ERA north of six and a 1.66 WHIP. A closer look does give reason for encouragement, however, as he's recorded a 36.4% hard-hit ball percentage and 87.8 mph exit velocity off opposing bats - both better than the MLB average. He's always been a ground ball pitcher and this year has been no different as he's posted a 47.4% ground ball percentage and 16.7% fly ball percentage. While his strikeouts are down, so are his walks. We can anticipate some positive regression to the mean going forward noting that opponents have hit a collective .317 against him this season but just .225 over the course of his career. While the Cardinals have had a few offensive explosions this season, they check in having scored five runs or less in seven of their last nine games overall. Jack Flaherty will counter for St. Louis. He had a shaky spring and is off to an uneven start to the regular season as well. He was helped out by his team's offense last time out, as the Cards put up 12 runs in a win over the Nationals. Flaherty has recorded a 42.4% hard-hit ball percentage an an exit velocity nearing 91 mph of opposing bats. His fly ball percentage of 30.5% is nearly 8% higher than the MLB average. The Reds have essentially managed to win around one out of every three games here in St. Louis over the last three seasons and I look for that to hold true here. Take Cincinnati (10*). |
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04-25-21 | Royals v. Tigers +1.5 | 4-0 | Loss | -135 | 7 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit +1.5 runs over Kansas City at 1:10 pm et on Sunday. The Royals have had their way with the Tigers in this series, adding to Detroit's misery in the midst of a 1-8 slide. I'll back the Tigers with an insurance run on Sunday, however, as they look to salvage the final game in this series. Danny Duffy will get the start for Kansas City. After a shaky three-year stretch from 2018-2020, he's pitched well in the early going this season, at least as far as his 0.50 ERA and 1.11 WHIP would seem to indicate. The Royals are paying Duffy $15.5M this season so he obviously has a bit of pressure on his shoulders to live up to expectations in the fourth year of his contract. Those numbers I mentioned certainly aren't sustainable when you consider Duffy has recorded a 45.8% hard-hit ball percentage and 90.0 mph exit velocity off opposing bats, not to mention a 39.6% line drive percentage and below average 29.2% ground ball percentage. Duffy hasn't posted lower than a 3.1% home run percentage (the MLB average is 2.9%) since 2017 but that number stands at 1.4% this season. I believe it's only a matter of time before we start seeing some balls leave the yard with Duffy on the mound. Michael Fulmer will counter for Detroit. If you've followed my plays regularly you know that I'm fairly high on Fulmer, this season at least. It's easy to forget that he was the A.L. Rookie of the Year in 2016, finishing top-10 in A.L. Cy Young Award voting that year. He followed that up with an All-Star campaign in 2017. He's looking to make his way back to respectability now following a tough stretch and he's been effective so far in 2021. Fulmer has recorded a 36.4% hard-hit ball percentage and an 86.4 mph exit velocity off opposing bats while inducing ground balls at a solid rate, with a 52.3% ground ball percentage. Opposing hitters are batting a collective .186 against him. While he has allowed three home runs in just 16 innings, I expect that to even out as he's been better than MLB average in terms of home run percentage over the course of his career. Take Detroit +1.5 runs (10*). |
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04-25-21 | Yankees v. Indians OVER 8 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 7 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Cleveland at 1:10 pm et on Sunday. Hitters should welcome the opportunity to tee off on Jameson Taillon and Triston McKenzie this afternoon after getting manhandled by Gerrit Cole and Shane Bieber in last night's 2-1 Yankees victory. Taillon has had a rather uneven career to this point and he's off to a rough start with the Yankees, having posted a 5.40 ERA and 1.28 WHIP through his first three starts. The advanced stats point to a struggling pitcher as Taillon has recorded a 47.4% hard-hit ball percentage and a 92.0 mph exit velocity off opposing bats. His ground ball percentage of 35.9% stands nearly 8% worse than the MLB average. Not surprisingly, opposing hitters are batting a collective .283 against him and he's posted a 5.3% home run percentage - 2% higher than the MLB average. Triston McKenzie hasn't been much better for the Indians. He has recorded an ugly 50.0% hard-hit ball percentage and a blistering 92.9 mph exit velocity off opposing bats. His 7.7% ground ball percentage is among the worst in baseball. Considering his 38.5% fly ball percentage, it's only a matter of time before his already worse than average 3.7% home run percentage inflates. This has been a relatively low-scoring series to this point but I think we're set up for a slugfest on Sunday. Take the over (10*). |
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04-24-21 | Marlins +1.5 v. Giants | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
National League Run-Line Game of the Year. My selection is on Miami +1.5 runs over San Francisco at 9:05 pm et on Saturday. The Marlins have had a tough time through the first two games here in San Francisco, only making things look close thanks to a two-out ninth inning error followed by a two-run home run to close the gap to 5-3. Here, I do like Miami in what figures to be a close affair. Pablo Lopez will take the ball for the Marlins. He was solid last season and has picked up right where he left off here in 2021. Through 21 2/3 innings of work, Lopez has recorded a 37.3% hard-hit ball percentage and an 84.6 mph exit velocity off opposing bats, noting that the MLB average in those departments is 39.2% and 88.7 mph. He's done a terrific job of staying out of danger throughout his career thanks to a 49.0% ground ball percentage and he checks in 47.5% in that category so far this season. His career fly ball percentage is nearly 5% lower than the MLB average. It's also encouraging to see Lopez's strikeout rate climb in each of his last three big league seasons. Kevin Gausman is pitching with a bit of pressure off a solid 2020 campaign as the Giants are paying him $18.9M this season. He's been solid in the early going this season but there is some reason for concern. Gausman's strikeouts are down and his walks are up while he's also recorded a 38.6% fly ball percentage. Opponents are hitting just .185 against him but we're bound to see some regression to the mean in that regard as he owns a career .263 opponents batting average. Rather than back the Marlins outright here, we'll grab the insurance run in what projects as another low-scoring affair in San Francisco. Take Miami +1.5 runs (10*). |
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04-24-21 | Rangers v. White Sox UNDER 8 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Texas and Chicago at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. We saw a wild, high-scoring affair between these two teams last night as the White Sox slugged their way to a 9-7 victory. I expect a different story to unfold on Saturday, however. Kyle Gibson gets the start for the Rangers. After struggling through the last two seasons, Gibson turned in a fine spring and that has carried over into the regular season as he's posted a 2.53 ERA and 1.13 WHIP through his first four starts. He's not getting it done with smoke and mirrors either. Gibson has kept opposing hitters off balance to the tune of a 29.0 hard-hit ball percentage and an 87.9 mph exit velocity off opposing bats. He's also done a terrific job of keeping the ball on the ground, recording a 50.0% ground ball percentage and 16.1% fly ball percentage. While some regression to the mean will certainly come at some point, Gibson has yet to allow a home run this season. White Sox starter Dallas Keuchel hasn't gotten off to as impressive of a start as Gibson this season but a deeper look into his advanced stats provide reason for encouragement. Note that Keuchel quietly finished fifth in A.L. Cy Young Award voting and 17th in A.L. MVP voting last season. Through four regular season starts this year, spanning 19 innings, Keuchel has recorded a 37.7% hard-hit ball percentage and an 85.3 mph exit velocity off opposing bats. More impressive is his 56.5% ground ball percentage. His strikeouts are down and his walks and home runs allowed are up, but again, his other advanced stats would lend to the thinking that some positive regression should be in order. Note that Texas is hitting just .226 against left-handed starters this season. Take the under (10*). |
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04-24-21 | Reds v. Cardinals UNDER 8 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cincinnati and St. Louis at 2:15 pm et on Saturday. The Reds have now dropped five games in a row following last night's 5-4 setback in the opener of this series. The 'over' has cashed in all four meetings in this series this season but I look for a reversal of sorts on Saturday afternoon. Wade Miley gets the nod for the Reds. He's been terrific in the early going this season, recording a 28.6% hard-hit ball percentage and a 83.8 mph exit velocity off opposing bats, both considerably better than the MLB average. He's also doing a terrific job of inducing ground balls, posting a 57.1% ground ball percentage, more than 13% higher than the MLB average. His strikeouts are up and his walks are down and opponents are hitting just .161 against him. John Gant will counter for the Cardinals. In his sixth big league season, all with the Cards, Gant has a lot to prove. He hasn't gotten off to a great start, largely due to command issues. I do think he can figure it out, and should benefit from facing a slumping Reds club that has scored five runs or less in five of its last six games. Note that for his career, Gant has held opposing hitters to a collective .232 batting average and has always done a nice job of keeping the ball in the park, with a career 2.1% home run percentage, 1.2% lower than the MLB average. Note that the 'under' has gone 48-26 with the Reds check in as a road underdog over the last three seasons. Take the under (10*). |
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04-23-21 | Marlins v. Giants UNDER 7.5 | 3-5 | Loss | -106 | 14 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Friday. We saw a low-scoring game between these two clubs in the opener of this series last night and I expect more of the same on Friday. Sandy Alcantara will take the ball for Miami. He's been a steadying presence in the Marlins rotation, in his fourth season with the team. Keep in mind, he was an All-Star two years ago as he posted a 3.88 ERA and 1.32 WHIP but only managed to go 6-14 pitching for what was a bad Marlins team. Alcantara has improved on his strikeout numbers and walk totals in each of the last two seasons and is off to a fine start here in 2021. Note that Alcantara has held opposing hitters to a collective .233 batting average over the course of his career, markedly better than the MLB average of .250. While his hard-hit ball percentage is higher than we would like at 43.5% this season, he's still inducing ground balls at a solid rate with a 46.8% ground ball percentage and 17.7% line drive percentage. Alcantara has always done a nice job of keeping the ball in the park, recording a career 2.6% home run percentage. Alex Wood gets the nod for the Giants. He's pitching for his third team in the last two seasons, including two stints with the Dodgers. I see Wood as a pitcher that has been solid throughout his career, even reaching the All-Star Game and finishing ninth in N.L. Cy Young Award voting back in 2017, but has a lot to prove right now as he earns just $3M with the Giants this season - his lowest salary since back in 2017. Wood was certainly effective in his first start this season, tossing five shutout innings of three-hit ball while striking out four with no walks. He did a great job of tying up opposing hitters in that one, recording a 23.1% hard-hit ball percentage and 81.4 mph exit velocity off opposing bats. He also posted a 61.5% ground ball percentage in that contest. Take the under (10*). |
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04-23-21 | Pirates +1.5 v. Twins | 0-2 | Loss | -146 | 12 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Pittsburgh +1.5 runs over Minnesota at 8:10 pm et on Friday. The Pirates are quietly stacking series wins after a slow start to the season and I like their chances of at least starting this series in Minnesota on a positive note on Friday night. J.T. Brubaker is an underrated starter for the Buccos. He didn't post great numbers on the surface in his rookie campaign a year ago but a deeper look showed encouraging signs and he's picked up where he left off here in 2021. After recording a 32.8% hard-hit ball percentage and 86.4 mph exit velocity off opposing bats last season he's just north of those numbers in the early going here in 2021. While we're talking about a small sample size, Brubaker has done a terrific job of inducing ground balls so far this season, posting a 55.3% ground ball percentage and 21.1% fly ball percentage. His strikeouts are up and his walks are down and he's limited opposing hitters to a collective .196 batting average in 15 1/3 innings of work this season. J.A. Happ will counter for the Twins. He's clearly on the downside of his career with the Twins taking a bit of a flyer on him for $8M this season. Happ had a rough spring and he's yet to turn things around through two regular season starts, despite his 3.12 ERA and 1.27 WHIP seeming to indicate otherwise. Happ has recorded a 44.0% hard-hit ball percentage and 91.5 mph exit velocity off opposing bats. His 44.0% fly ball percentage is certainly concerning, even if Happ has by no means been a ground ball pitcher over the course of his career. More concerning is the fact that his strikeout rate is down while his walk rate is up. I don't need to tell you that's a bad combination for a starting pitcher in the latter stages of his career. Take Pittsburgh +1.5 runs (10*). |
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04-23-21 | Diamondbacks v. Braves OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
MLB National League Non-Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and Atlanta at 7:20 pm et on Friday. The D'Backs are coming off an offensive explosion against the Reds yesterday and I'm confident we'll see them do plenty of damage at the plate again on Friday night in Atlanta. The question is whether they'll be able to keep pace with the Braves, who are in good position for a bounce-back performance offensively against Luke Weaver of the D'Backs. Weaver had an awful spring and he's struggled in the early going in the regular season as well. In 16 2/3 innings of work, Weaver has recorded a 48.0% hard-hit ball percentage and a 93.0 mph exit velocity off opposing bats - both well north of the MLB average. He's never been much of a ground ball pitcher and that has held true so far this season as he's posted a 30.0% ground ball percentage (compared to the 43.5% MLB average). While Weaver's walks are down, his home runs allowed are up significantly as he's been tagged for an average of around one every four innings so far this season. The Braves got off to a slow start at the plate this season and were held down in a well-pitched series against the Yankees in New York earlier this week, but do check in having scored at least five runs in eight of their last 12 games overall. Huascar Ynoa will take the ball for Atlanta. Like Weaver, he had an awful spring and has been hit hard in the early stages of the regular season as well. Ynoa has recorded a 55.0% hard-hit ball percentage and a 91.5 mph exit velocity off opposing bats. While his strikeouts are up considerably and his walks are way down compared to last year, we're dealing with such a small sample size that some regression to the mean is almost certainly in order. While not much was expected from the D'Backs this season, they've been on quite a tear offensively, scoring five runs or more in 10 of their last 12 games overall. Note that the 'over' has gone 11-2 in the Braves last 13 games as a home favorite priced -150 or higher with those games averaging 12.5 total runs. Take the over (10*). |
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04-23-21 | Mariners v. Red Sox UNDER 9.5 | 5-6 | Loss | -116 | 13 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Seattle and Boston at 7:10 pm et on Friday. We won with the Mariners +1.5 in last night's outright win in extra innings. Here, I'll switch gears and back the 'under' as I feel this total will simply prove too high. Keep in mind, while last night's series-opener managed to get 'over' the total that was only thanks to extra innings. Neither of these teams have been tearing the cover off the ball over the last few games and I look for more of the same on Friday. Yusei Kikuchi will take the ball for the Mariners. Throw out a poor rookie campaign in 2019 and Kikuchi actually owns better than average numbers in most key advanced stat categories we like to look at. That includes strikeout percentage and home run percentage over the last two seasons, with Kikuchi holding opposing hitters to a collective .237 batting average. While Kikuchi has predominantly been a ground ball pitcher that hasn't really held true in the early going this season, but we're talking about a small sample size. Veteran Martin Perez will counter for Boston. He's been one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball in recent years but there is reason for encouragement in the early going this season. Perez has done a terrific job of keeping opposing hitters off balance, recording a 29.5% hard-hit ball percentage and 85.8 mph exit velocity off opposing bats in 13 2/3 innings of work this season. Like Kikuchi, he has generally been a ground ball pitcher over the course of his career, but has yet to really settle in here in 2021. We have, however, seen him improve on his home run, strikeout and walk percentages compared to last season, albeit with a small sample size. Take the under (10*). |
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04-23-21 | Yankees v. Indians UNDER 8.5 | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
MLB American League Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Cleveland at 7:10 pm et on Friday. The Indians plated three runs in the first inning of last night's game before their bats went silent the rest of the way in a 6-3 loss. I'm anticipating another relatively low-scoring affair on Friday night as the Yankees send Jordan Montgomery to the hill against Logan Allen. Montgomery hasn't pitched a full season at the big league level since finishing sixth in A.L. Rookie of the Year voting in his rookie campaign back in 2017. However, he has put together a pretty solid resume when he has managed to get out there. For his career, Montgomery has been better than the MLB average in terms of opponents batting average, walk percentage, hard-hit ball percentage, opponents' exit velocity off the bat and line drive percentage - many of the key advanced stat categories we like to look at. So far this season he has recorded a terrific 30.2% hard-hit ball percentage and 86.3 mph exit velocity off opposing bats while also improving on his career strikeout and walk percentages. He should benefit from facing an Indians lineup that just hasn't been able to score with much consistency in the early going. Logan Allen will counter for Cleveland. Since being cast aside by the Padres in 2019, Allen has been serviceable for the Indians. Like Montgomery, he's off to a fine start in 2021, having recorded a 31.4% hard-hit ball percentage and 86.7 mph exit velocity while doing a tremendous job of inducing ground balls with a 57.1% ground ball percentage. Allen has generally done a good job of keeping the ball in the park and this year has been no different as he's given up just one home run in 12 innings of work. That's obviously a key against the slugging Yankees here. Take the under (10*). |
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04-22-21 | Padres v. Dodgers UNDER 8 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Diego and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Thursday. We played the 'under' in this same pitching matchup last week and we weren't close as that game sailed over the total with the Dodgers eventually winning in extra innings. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here, however, as the scene shifts to Los Angeles on Thursday night. The Padres aren't hitting right now. They had the bases loaded with no one out with a chance to possibly tie or take the lead in the ninth inning against the Brewers yesterday and couldn't even cash in a single run. Here, they'll face one of the best pitchers in baseball in Walker Buehler. Buehler is still working out the early season kinks but his command is there having posted a terrific 1.4% walk percentage through 18 innings of work - a considerable improvement, albeit with a small sample size, over his career average. Buehler is also inducing ground balls at a good clip, having recorded a 42.1% ground ball percentage. Note that the 'under' is 18-5 in Buehler's last 23 night starts here at Dodger Stadium with those games totaling an average of just 6.8 runs. Rookie Ryan Weathers will make his second big league start, with both coming against the Dodgers. He held his own through 3 2/3 shutout innings against them last week, allowing just one hit and striking out three while walking two. Note that the Dodgers are hitting just .195 against left-handed starting pitching in the early going this season. Through 9 2/3 big league innings, Weathers has been largely effective, limiting opponents to a .100 batting average while recording a 45.0% ground ball percentage. Take the under (10*). |
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04-22-21 | Angels +113 v. Astros | 2-8 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over Houston at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. We missed the mark with the Angels yesterday but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with them on Thursday as they head to Houston to face the reeling Astros. Houston has lost three games in a row and nine of its last 10 overall entering this series with the Angels. Cristian Javier will take the ball on Thursday. Through 8 2/3 innings of work this season he has recorded a 47.6% hard-hit ball percentage and a 91.0 mph exit velocity off opposing bats. It doesn't appear he's going to be a ground ball pitcher at the big league level, having recorded a 29.3% ground ball percentage during his rookie campaign last year and 28.6% so far this season. Concerning is his 38.1% fly ball percentage through his first 8 2/3 innings pitched this season. Alex Cobb will counter for the Angels. They're paying him $15M this season so there's obviously some pressure to perform as he comes over from the Orioles. Cobb owns a 4.63 ERA and 1.20 WHIP through his first two starts this season but there are reasons for encouragement as he has recorded a 55.2% ground ball percentage and a 10.3% fly ball percentage. He catches the Astros returning without a day off after playing at altitude in Denver. Of course, Houston has had plenty of Covid-related issues and is just now getting its lineup back to full strength. I'll take a shot with the Angels to steal the opener of this series on Thursday. Take Los Angeles (9*). |
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04-22-21 | Mets v. Cubs UNDER 9 | 3-4 | Win | 102 | 11 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Chicago at 7:40 pm et on Thursday. We saw a wild, high-scoring affair between these two clubs last night as the Cubs slugged their way to a 16-4 victory. Here, I look for a return to 'normal' as New York sends Joey Lucchesi to the mound against Trevor Williams. Neither starter's numbers will jump off the page but I'm anticipating a reasonably well-pitched game at Wrigley Field on Thursday. Lucchesi was cut loose by the Padres following 2+ very average seasons. We don't have a lot to go on here this season as Lucchesi has made just two appearances, spanning only five innings of work. With that being said, he has done a nice job of keeping opposing hitters off balance, recording a 35.7% hard-hit ball percentage and 85.7 mph exit velocity off opposing bats. Keep in mind, Lucchesi had a terrific spring, posting a 2.77 ERA and 0.85 WHIP in 13 innings of work. Perhaps a change of scenery will be a positive for the right-hander. Trevor Williams is another starter changing places this season, moving to Chicago after five seasons with the Pirates. His early returns this year have been mixed but I am encouraged by his 54.5% ground ball percentage and miniscule 6.8% fly ball percentage. His walks are up, but so are his strikeouts (slightly). Like Lucchesi, he's also done a nice job of keeping opposing hitters off balance, recording a 38.6% hard-hit ball percentage and 86.8 mph exit velocity off opposing bats. Williams should benefit from facing a Mets club that has scored four runs or less in nine of their last 10 games. Take the under (10*). |
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04-22-21 | Mariners +1.5 v. Red Sox | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
MLB American League Run-Line Game of the Year. My selection is on Seattle +1.5 runs over Boston at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. The Mariners head east following a 1-0 loss to the Dodgers two days ago to face a Red Sox club that's fresh off a two-game split against the division rival Blue Jays. I like the way this one sets up for Seattle as it sends Justin Dunn to the mound against Nick Pivetta. Dunn has been a bit of an enigma for the M's during the early stages of his big league career. Command has certainly been an issue as Dunn has recorded an ugly 18.5% walk percentage in 62 innings of work. However, there is reason for optimism as he's held opposing hitters to a collective .168 batting average. We've also seen him improve on his strikeout percentage this season, averaging 8.4 K's per nine innings. Note that the Mariners own a terrific 6-1 record with Dunn on the mound as a road underdog over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 2.6 runs per game in that situation. Nick Pivetta was cast away after a brutal start with the Phillies last season. He was fine in a couple of appearances with the Red Sox last season but now we're seeing the same issues creep up again in the early going here in 2021. Pivetta has recorded a 45.0% hard-hit ball percentage and a 91.5 mph exit velocity off opposing bats so far this season - both well north of the MLB average. He has also posted a 32.5% line drive percentage and 27.5% fly ball percentage to go along with a poor 30.0% ground ball percentage - again, all worse than the MLB average. His walks are up and his strikeouts are down so far this season. The only thing that has helped him save face has been the fact that he's kept the ball in the park for the most part, but it should only be a matter of time before that changes, noting that he owns a career 4.0% home run percentage compared to the MLB average of 3.3%. For his career, opponents are hitting a lofty .272 against him - 22 points higher than the MLB average. Noting that the Mariners have gone a perfect 11-0 when factoring in the +1.5 run-line over their last 11 games, we'll grab the insurance run again here with the price warranting such a play. Take Seattle +1.5 runs (10*). |
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04-22-21 | Yankees v. Indians -103 | 6-3 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland over New York at 6:10 pm et on Thursday. I'm higher on Indians starter Aaron Civale than most. He's certainly overshadowed in the Indians rotation, understandably so with an ace like Shane Bieber in the number one slot. Civale has quietly impressed throughout his big league career and is off to another fine start here in 2021. Through 20 2/3 innings of work he has recorded a stellar 37.3% hard-hit ball percentage and 85.5 mph exit velocity off opposing bats while posting a 47.1% ground ball percentage. Through the early stages of his MLB career, Civale has been considerably above average in terms of walk percentage and home run percentage while holding opposing hitters to a collective .242 batting average. The Yankees will counter with Domingo German in Thursday's series-opener. Unlike Civale, German is not off to a positive start this season. He's lasted only seven innings through two starts, allowing 12 hits and seven earned runs. He's had a tough time keeping the ball in the park throughout his career and early on this season that has held true. For his career, German has recorded a 4.7% home run percentage compared to the MLB average of 3.3%. Worse still, he's posted a 51.9% hard-hit ball percentage and 91.5 mph exit velocity off opposing bats this season. Opposing hitters are seeing German extremely well right now and the Indians have shown signs of life at the dish over the last couple of games, scoring 11 runs. Take Cleveland (10*). |
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04-21-21 | Braves +1.5 v. Yankees | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta +1.5 runs over New York at 6:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Braves bats went silent once again in last night's 3-1 loss to the Yankees but I look for them to salvage a split, or at the very least take this one down to the wire on Wednesday evening in the Bronx. Ian Anderson will take the ball for the Braves. He had a tough spring and he's been average at best through three regular season starts but I look for him to step up in this key road tilt on Wednesday. Note that while Anderson has posted an ugly 4.70 ERA and 1.44 WHIP, there is some reason for encouragement. In keeping with his success a year ago, Anderson continues to induce ground balls at a terrific rate, having recorded a 46.3% ground ball percentage this season. His 12.2% fly ball percentage is even more impressive, yet he's been tagged for three home runs in just 15 1/3 innings of work. That should even out in due time, noting that Anderson recorded a stellar 0.7% home run percentage last season - on his way to finishing seventh in N.L. Rookie of the Year Award voting. Veteran Corey Kluber will counter for New York. He has labored through three starts with his new club, recording an ERA north of six to go along with a brutal 2.23 WHIP. Kluber will eventually figure it out I'm sure but it is alarming to see a 46.9% hard-hit ball percentage and 90.7 mph exit velocity off opposing bats. Also note that his strikeout percentage, walk percentage and home run percentage are all trending in the wrong direction compared to his career averages - no surprise as Kluber is undoubtedly on the down side of his terrific career. Take Atlanta +1.5 runs (9*). |
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04-21-21 | Brewers v. Padres -195 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -195 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
MLB Chalk Game of the Year. My selection is on San Diego over Milwaukee at 4:10 pm et on Wednesday. We're paying a bit of a tariff to back the Padres here on Wednesday as they look to avoid the sweep at the hands of the Brewers but I believe the price could be even higher. Adrian Houser will take the ball for Milwaukee. He has a tough act to follow after Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes absolutely dominated the Padres lineup over the last two nights. Houser had a rough spring but has been serviceable through two starts during the regular season. He's relied on a very high ground ball rate through three starts but there is some reason for concern as he's recorded a 46.3% hard-hit ball percentage and opponents have hit a collecting .288 off of him (after they hit .285 against him last season). That's not to mention the fact his strikeouts per nine innings are down while his walks are up. The Padres are expected to have both Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado back in the lineup on Wednesday after they were rested on Tuesday. Dinelson Lamet will make his 2021 debut for the Padres after quietly finishing fourth in N.L. Cy Young Award voting last season. Lamet faces a Brewers lineup that is still without two of its best hitters in Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain. Lamet's numbers certainly won't pop off the page, but he did improve year-over-year in terms of strikeout percentage, home run percentage and walk percentage last season. For his career, Lamet has limited opposing hitters to a collective .202 batting average. This is a fine matchup for Lamet to ease his way into the 2021 campaign, noting the Brewers entered last night's action hitting just .206 against right-handed starters this season. Take San Diego (10*). |
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04-21-21 | Rangers v. Angels -164 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -164 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
MLB A.L. West Game of the Week. My selection is on Los Angeles over Texas at 4:05 pm et on Wednesday. I like the way this one sets up for the Angels after they evened the series at one game apiece with a victory last night. We were set to back Angels starter Jose Quintana before last Saturday's game against the Twins got postponed due to Covid protocols involving Minnesota. Here, I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play as the veteran Quintana looks to shake off a rough start to the season. Keep in mind, Quintana has a lot to prove this year as he takes a $2.5M paycut with the Angels after being cut loose by the Cubs. He had a terrific spring but has posted a ridiculous 16.20 ERA and 3.40 WHIP through two regular season outings. While he has recorded a 50.0% hard-hit ball percentage, the exit velocity off opposing bats is a better than MLB average 85.0 mph. He has also posted an excellent 55.6% ground ball percentage (we are talking about a small sample size here). Mike Foltynewicz will counter for Texas. He's been riding the coattails of his All-Star season in 2018 when he finished eighth in N.L. Cy Young Award voting. The fact is, that's really been his only impressive campaign at the big league level. He's 0-3 through three starts this season, recording a 47.7% hard-hit ball percentage and 90.2 mph exit velocity while also posting poor 27.3% and 31.8% line drive and fly ball percentages, respectively, both north of the MLB average. Take out that one outlier season in 2018 and his numbers across the board are actually quite awful. Here, he faces an Angels lineup that entered last night's action hitting a collective .261 against right-handed starting pitching. Note that with last night's loss, Texas is now a miserable 15-45 in its last 60 road games against A.L. West opponents. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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04-20-21 | Brewers v. Padres UNDER 7 | Top | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 15 h 18 m | Show |
N.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and San Diego at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the 'under' in this matchup last night and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Tuesday as the Brewers send the second of their two-headed top of the rotation monster to the hill in Corbin Burnes against Chris Paddack of the Padres. Burnes finished sixth in N.L. Cy Young Award voting last season and after a lights out spring, he's been even better through his first three regular season starts, posting a miniscule 0.49 ERA and 0.22 WHIP. The advanced stats are arguably even better for Burnes as he's held opposing hitters to a collective .067 batting average to go along with a 48.4% strikeout percentage and 1.6% home run percentage. He has yet to issue a walk in 18 1/3 innings of work. Needless to say, Burnes has kept opposing hitters off balance, recording a 26.7% hard-hit ball percentage and 56.7% ground ball percentage. It's hard to say how much run support Burnes will receive here, however, as the Brewers are still without two of their best hitters in Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain. They'll be facing Padres starter Chris Paddack who had a miserable spring but has seemingly turned it around quickly here in the regular season. While Paddack's strikeouts are down and his walks are up, he's yet to allow a home run and has recorded a 30.2% hard-hit ball percentage and 84.9 mph exit velocity off opposing bats - both considerably better than the MLB average. He's also inducing ground balls at a solid rate with a 46.5% ground ball percentage and an 18.6% fly ball percentage. As I mentioned, the Brewers are undermanned offensively right now so Paddack won't have to be perfect on Tuesday night. Take the under (10*). |
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Sean Murphy MLB Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-25-21 | Rangers v. Angels OVER 8.5 | 5-11 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show | |
05-25-21 | Orioles v. Twins -196 | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show | |
05-24-21 | Cardinals v. White Sox -173 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
05-24-21 | Rockies v. Mets -135 | 3-2 | Loss | -135 | 9 h 30 m | Show | |
05-23-21 | Tigers v. Royals -141 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 29 m | Show | |
05-22-21 | Rays v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -117 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
05-22-21 | Twins v. Indians -162 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 22 m | Show | |
05-22-21 | Orioles v. Nationals -152 | 9-12 | Win | 100 | 5 h 45 m | Show | |
05-21-21 | Mariners v. Padres OVER 7.5 | Top | 1-16 | Win | 103 | 15 h 43 m | Show |
05-21-21 | Tigers v. Royals UNDER 9 | 7-5 | Loss | -120 | 13 h 30 m | Show | |
05-21-21 | Red Sox v. Phillies UNDER 8.5 | 11-3 | Loss | -104 | 11 h 42 m | Show | |
05-21-21 | Red Sox v. Phillies -147 | 11-3 | Loss | -147 | 10 h 14 m | Show | |
05-20-21 | Astros v. A's OVER 8.5 | Top | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 2 m | Show |
05-20-21 | Giants v. Reds -132 | 19-4 | Loss | -132 | 5 h 53 m | Show | |
05-19-21 | Tigers v. Mariners -135 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -135 | 14 h 31 m | Show |
05-19-21 | White Sox v. Twins +1.5 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 4 h 44 m | Show | |
05-18-21 | Rockies v. Padres OVER 6.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -117 | 16 h 33 m | Show |
05-18-21 | Tigers v. Mariners -118 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -118 | 14 h 18 m | Show |
05-17-21 | Indians v. Angels OVER 9 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 14 h 6 m | Show |
05-17-21 | Nationals v. Cubs -146 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 21 m | Show | |
05-16-21 | Mets v. Rays UNDER 7.5 | 1-7 | Loss | -106 | 4 h 0 m | Show | |
05-15-21 | Cubs -125 v. Tigers | 8-9 | Loss | -125 | 8 h 42 m | Show | |
05-14-21 | Cubs v. Tigers OVER 8.5 | 4-2 | Loss | -111 | 11 h 26 m | Show | |
05-13-21 | Yankees v. Rays +1.5 | Top | 1-9 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
05-13-21 | Giants v. Pirates UNDER 8 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
05-12-21 | Royals -144 v. Tigers | 2-4 | Loss | -144 | 9 h 18 m | Show | |
05-11-21 | Mariners +210 v. Dodgers | 4-6 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 38 m | Show | |
05-11-21 | Royals -126 v. Tigers | Top | 7-8 | Loss | -126 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
05-11-21 | Cubs +168 v. Indians | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 47 m | Show | |
05-10-21 | Rangers +129 v. Giants | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 1 m | Show | |
05-10-21 | Reds v. Pirates +127 | 14-1 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 0 m | Show | |
05-09-21 | Pirates +155 v. Cubs | 6-5 | Win | 155 | 7 h 10 m | Show | |
05-09-21 | Diamondbacks +275 v. Mets | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 50 m | Show | |
05-08-21 | Dodgers v. Angels +131 | 14-11 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 29 m | Show | |
05-08-21 | Blue Jays +135 v. Astros | 8-4 | Win | 135 | 9 h 47 m | Show | |
05-07-21 | White Sox v. Royals +143 | 3-0 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 48 m | Show | |
05-07-21 | Nationals +170 v. Yankees | 11-4 | Win | 170 | 12 h 26 m | Show | |
05-06-21 | Diamondbacks v. Marlins OVER 7 | 1-3 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 32 m | Show | |
05-06-21 | Blue Jays v. A's UNDER 8.5 | 10-4 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 51 m | Show | |
05-06-21 | Brewers -115 v. Phillies | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 52 m | Show |
05-05-21 | Blue Jays v. A's -119 | 9-4 | Loss | -119 | 12 h 17 m | Show | |
05-05-21 | Astros +1.5 v. Yankees | 3-6 | Loss | -154 | 11 h 31 m | Show | |
05-05-21 | Astros v. Yankees UNDER 9 | 3-6 | Push | 0 | 10 h 0 m | Show | |
05-05-21 | Brewers -130 v. Phillies | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -130 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
05-05-21 | Giants v. Rockies UNDER 10.5 | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
05-05-21 | White Sox v. Reds -123 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 36 m | Show | |
05-05-21 | White Sox v. Reds OVER 8 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 27 m | Show |
05-04-21 | Blue Jays v. A's UNDER 9 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 44 m | Show | |
05-04-21 | Indians v. Royals OVER 9 | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 60 m | Show | |
05-04-21 | Indians v. Royals -134 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -134 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
05-04-21 | Rangers +1.5 v. Twins | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show | |
05-03-21 | Blue Jays v. A's UNDER 8.5 | 4-5 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 1 m | Show | |
05-02-21 | Angels v. Mariners UNDER 8.5 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 36 m | Show | |
05-02-21 | Orioles v. A's OVER 8 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
05-02-21 | Marlins v. Nationals OVER 7 | 1-3 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 51 m | Show | |
05-01-21 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8.5 | 14-6 | Loss | -130 | 13 h 58 m | Show | |
05-01-21 | Dodgers -124 v. Brewers | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -124 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
05-01-21 | Indians v. White Sox OVER 7.5 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 9 m | Show |
04-30-21 | Orioles v. A's UNDER 8 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 36 m | Show | |
04-30-21 | Royals +1.5 v. Twins | Top | 1-9 | Loss | -154 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
04-30-21 | Red Sox v. Rangers OVER 8 | 6-1 | Loss | -114 | 12 h 49 m | Show | |
04-30-21 | Cubs v. Reds UNDER 9 | 6-8 | Loss | -104 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
04-30-21 | Tigers v. Yankees OVER 7.5 | 0-10 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
04-29-21 | Red Sox v. Rangers +1.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
04-29-21 | Dodgers -152 v. Brewers | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -152 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
04-29-21 | A's v. Rays UNDER 8 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 9 m | Show |
04-29-21 | Yankees v. Orioles UNDER 9.5 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 16 m | Show | |
04-28-21 | Rockies v. Giants UNDER 7 | 3-7 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 44 m | Show | |
04-28-21 | Royals -115 v. Pirates | Top | 9-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
04-28-21 | Reds v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 | 0-8 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 31 m | Show | |
04-27-21 | Rockies v. Giants -165 | 7-5 | Loss | -165 | 9 h 5 m | Show | |
04-27-21 | Tigers v. White Sox UNDER 8 | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 49 m | Show | |
04-27-21 | Mariners v. Astros OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -106 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
04-27-21 | Yankees v. Orioles OVER 9.5 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
04-27-21 | Royals v. Pirates OVER 8 | 1-2 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 54 m | Show | |
04-27-21 | Twins v. Indians UNDER 8 | 4-7 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 0 m | Show | |
04-26-21 | Reds v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 | 5-3 | Loss | -118 | 14 h 54 m | Show | |
04-26-21 | Rockies v. Giants OVER 7.5 | Top | 0-12 | Win | 105 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
04-26-21 | Cubs v. Braves UNDER 8.5 | 7-8 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 19 m | Show | |
04-25-21 | Padres v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 8-7 | Loss | -118 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
04-25-21 | Reds +112 v. Cardinals | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 39 m | Show |
04-25-21 | Royals v. Tigers +1.5 | 4-0 | Loss | -135 | 7 h 48 m | Show | |
04-25-21 | Yankees v. Indians OVER 8 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 7 h 36 m | Show | |
04-24-21 | Marlins +1.5 v. Giants | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
04-24-21 | Rangers v. White Sox UNDER 8 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 51 m | Show | |
04-24-21 | Reds v. Cardinals UNDER 8 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show | |
04-23-21 | Marlins v. Giants UNDER 7.5 | 3-5 | Loss | -106 | 14 h 40 m | Show | |
04-23-21 | Pirates +1.5 v. Twins | 0-2 | Loss | -146 | 12 h 52 m | Show | |
04-23-21 | Diamondbacks v. Braves OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
04-23-21 | Mariners v. Red Sox UNDER 9.5 | 5-6 | Loss | -116 | 13 h 31 m | Show | |
04-23-21 | Yankees v. Indians UNDER 8.5 | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
04-22-21 | Padres v. Dodgers UNDER 8 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 37 m | Show | |
04-22-21 | Angels +113 v. Astros | 2-8 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 8 m | Show | |
04-22-21 | Mets v. Cubs UNDER 9 | 3-4 | Win | 102 | 11 h 53 m | Show | |
04-22-21 | Mariners +1.5 v. Red Sox | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
04-22-21 | Yankees v. Indians -103 | 6-3 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 8 m | Show | |
04-21-21 | Braves +1.5 v. Yankees | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show | |
04-21-21 | Brewers v. Padres -195 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -195 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
04-21-21 | Rangers v. Angels -164 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -164 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
04-20-21 | Brewers v. Padres UNDER 7 | Top | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 15 h 18 m | Show |