Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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08-17-20 | Padres v. Rangers UNDER 8.5 | 14-4 | Loss | -100 | 26 h 2 m | Show | |
**NO PLAY DUE TO PITCHING CHANGE** My selection is on the 'under' between San Diego and Texas at 9:05 pm et on Monday. The Rangers entered Sunday's action ranking 29th in baseball in runs per game but ninth in runs allowed per contest. Expect another low-scoring game featuring the Rangers here as they send Mike Minor to the hill against Zach Davies. Minor's overall numbers aren't great but it's worth noting his strikeouts per nine innings are up slightly while his home runs and hits allowed per nine innings are down compared to last year as well. He needs to work on his command but I do think that will turn around. Davies has been terrific for the Padres, posting a career high in strikeouts per innings and a career low walks per nine innings in the early going. Take the under (10*). |
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08-15-20 | Rangers v. Rockies -157 | 6-4 | Loss | -157 | 22 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Colorado over Texas at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. Rockies starter German Marquez has proven time and time again that he can tame opposing bats at hitter-friendly Coors Field and I look for him to do it again on Saturday night against the Rangers. Marquez is off to a fine start this season, even if he was unable to guide the Rockies to a win against the Mariners in his last start. His numbers are very comparable to the last two seasons, in which he has posted an impressive 26-16 record with an ERA hovering around four - not half bad for pitching the majority of his games at Coors Field. Note that Marquez has posted an ERA just north of two while also cutting his hits and home runs allowed per nine innings down considerably over a year ago. Meanwhile, Rangers starter Kyle Gibson has struggled with his new club and perhaps we should have seen that coming. His numbers have generally gotten worse over the back half of his career since he made his debut back in 2013. The Twins cut him loose after he posted a 4.84 ERA and 1.44 WHIP last season. So far this year his walks per nine innings are up while his strikeouts are down not to mention he's allowing more hits and home runs. Take Colorado (10*). |
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08-15-20 | A's v. Giants +1.5 | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Francisco +1.5 runs over Oakland at 7:07 pm et on Saturday. NOTE: Manaea starting for Montas for Oakland. The play remains on the Giants +1.5 at a slightly less favorable price. I'll take a shot with the Giants plus the insurance run as they try to bounce back from last night's highly disappointing extra innings loss to the A's. Oakland staged a five-run ninth inning rally in that contest, snatching victory from the jaws of defeat as they say. Here, they'll hand the ball to Frankie Montas and I feel he's become a little overvalued. Note that Montas' walks per nine innings are up this season while his strikeouts are down slightly. Meanwhile, he's yet to allow a single home run, which as we obviously know is certainly not sustainable even if he has had a penchant for keeping the ball in the yard over the course of his young career. Veteran Kevin Gausman has actually pitched reasonably well for the Giants. In fact, he's put together a solid run since joining the Reds late last season, bumping up his strikeouts per nine innings while doing a good job of keeping his walks down (he's issuing just 0.9 walks per nine innings this season). Keep in mind, the A's check in ranked T24 in hits per game and 27th in batting average. Take San Francisco +1.5 runs (10*). |
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08-15-20 | Mets v. Phillies UNDER 8.5 | 2-6 | Win | 105 | 20 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Philadelphia at 6:05 pm et on Saturday. Unlike last night when we saw two back of the rotation starters go head-to-head in the opener of this series, I expect to see a much more impressive pitching matchup on Saturday night as the Mets send Steven Matz to the hill against the Phillies Aaron Nola. Matz' overall numbers so far this season are awful as he has gone 0-3 with an 8.20 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. Keep in mind, he did allow just four earned runs over 11 1/3 innings of work in his first two starts before getting lit up over his last two outings. Remember, Matz finished sixth in N.L. Rookie of the Year voting back in 2016 and save for a poor 2017 campaign has generally pitched well at this level. Even this year he has slightly increased his strikeouts per nine innings while reducing his walks per nine innings considerably over last season. Aaron Nola has been the Phillies ace so far, posting a 2.79 ERA and incredible 0.62 WHIP through three starts. He's striking out a whopping 13.5 batters per nine innings while issuing just 0.9 walks. Just two years ago he finished third in N.L. Cy Young voting and even reached the MVP ballot. Take the under (10*). |
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08-14-20 | Padres v. Diamondbacks +120 | 1-5 | Win | 120 | 24 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona over San Diego at 9:40 pm et on Friday. The D'Backs are coming off an encouraging series win over the Rockies at Coors Field and I look for them to build on that showing in Friday's series-opener against the Padres. San Diego starter Dinelson Lamet is off to an incredible start this season and will be facing Arizona for the third time already. I simply feel some regression is in order, noting that he posted a 4.57 ERA in his rookie campaign in 2017 before recording a 4.07 ERA in 14 starts last year. He's been doing a much better job of keeping the ball in the park through four starts this season, allowing just 0.4 home runs per nine innings. I'm just not convinced we'll see that continue. Merrill Kelly is off to a fine start for the D'Backs this season as well. He was a workhorse in his rookie campaign last year, making 32 starts while posting a 4.42 ERA. While his strikeouts per nine innings are down slightly, his walks are also down significantly as he's issued 0.5 free passes per nine innings through his first three outings this season. Take Arizona (10*). |
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08-14-20 | Rangers v. Rockies UNDER 12.5 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 23 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Texas and Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Friday. I'll take the contrarian route and back the 'under' as the Rangers and Rockies open up their series in Denver on Friday night. The Rangers aren't the offensive powerhouse they once were. While they did plate seven runs in a win over the Mariners two nights ago, they've scored more than seven runs in a game on only one occasion this season and rank tied for 28th in the majors in runs scored per game at 3.6. Somewhat surprisingly, they find themselves in the top half of the majors in fewest runs allowed per game. Rockies rookie Ryan Castellani made his big league debut on August 8th, not allowing a single hit while striking out three and walking one over four innings. Veteran Lance Lynn takes the ball for the Rangers. He's been more than serviceable over the last couple of seasons and is off to an alright start this year as well. While he's issued a lot more walks than I would like, I do expect him to pitch reasonably well here. Take the under (10*). |
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08-14-20 | Braves v. Marlins OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 22 h 32 m | Show |
MLB N.L. East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Miami at 7:10 pm et on Friday. Expect plenty of runners on base and ultimately runs on the board as the Braves and Marlins open their series in Miami on Friday night. Kyle Wright will take the ball for the Braves. He previously had a cup of coffee at the big league level over the last two seasons, making 11 combined appearances in 2018 and 2019. He struggled in those outings and has picked up right where he left off this year, recording a 6.75 ERA and 2.08 WHIP through 12 innings of work. After issuing a whopping 5.9 walks per nine innings in seven appearances last year he's inexplicably been even worse in limited work so far this season, handing out 7.5 walks per nine innings. Pablo Lopez will counter for Miami. His numbers this season are just fine, but he's worked just 10 innings and has a poor track record at the big league level. He posted an ERA north of five in 21 starts last season. While his strikeouts per nine innings are up through two appearances this year, so are his walks. In this matchup of two teams than rank top-10 in baseball in runs per game, I'll back the 'over' on Friday night. Take the over (10*). |
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08-13-20 | Padres v. Dodgers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 2-11 | Loss | -107 | 24 h 49 m | Show |
N.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between San Diego and Los Angeles at 9:40 pm et on Thursday. While both of these offenses are off to terrific starts this season, I'm comfortable playing the 'under' with the oddsmakers hanging out a generous total in Thursday's series finale. Chris Paddack will take the ball for the Padres. Few starters have been more consistent than Paddack in the early going this season as he has already worked 22 2/3 innings, posting a 3.18 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. His strikeouts per nine innings are down slightly compared to his rookie campaign last year, but so are his walks. In fact, he's handed out only three free passes so far this season. Julio Urias will counter for Los Angeles. He has seen the 'over' cash in two of his first three starts but keep in mind, he's been opposed by the likes of Drew Smyly, Luke Weaver and Jeff Samardzija. Here, he's in line for a pitcher's duel with Paddack. Urias had his start pushed back a night as Dodgers manager Dave Roberts tries to manage workload during a 17-game in 17-night stretch. After posting a stellar 2.49 ERA in 37 appearances, mostly as a reliever, last year he's off to another fine start here in 2020, having recorded a 2.40 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. Take the under (10*). |
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08-13-20 | Nationals +119 v. Mets | 2-8 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington over New York at 1:10 pm et on Thursday. I'll take a shot with the Nationals at a generous price on Thursday afternoon in New York. The Nats will be looking to bounce back from last night's 11-6 loss to the Mets and I believe they're in good position to do so. Austin Voth will take the ball for Washington. While he was worked just five innings in both of his previous starts this season, he has pitched well, allowing just two earned runs on six hits over 10 innings. Keep in mind, he made eight starts and nine appearances last season and was effective, posting a 3.30 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. While his strikeouts per nine innings are down in limited work this season, so are his walks. Rookie David Peterson will counter for New York. He'll be making his fourth start and like Voth, he has also pitched reasonably well. The one difference is that Peterson has struggled with his command, issuing over three walks per nine innings and posting a 1.32 WHIP. With the Nats offense showing signs of life thanks in large part to Juan Soto heating up in the middle of the order, I look for them to do some damage at the plate today. Take Washington (10*). |
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08-12-20 | Cubs v. Indians UNDER 8 | 7-2 | Loss | -108 | 20 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Cleveland at 6:10 pm et on Wednesday. Cubs starter Kyle Hendricks has put together a rock solid big league career and he's off to another fine start here in 2020. Consistency has been key over the course of Hendricks' seven-year career as he has never posted an ERA north of 3.95 in a season, with that career-high number coming way back in 2015. It's easy to forget that Hendricks was actually third in N.L. Cy Young voting back in 2016. So far this year he has issued just 0.9 walks per nine innings and allowed only eight earned runs on 17 hits through 20 1/3 innings of work. Likewise, Cookie Carrasco has been terrific for the Indians, working exactly six innings in each of his first three outings, allowing just five earned runs on 12 hits. Take the under (10*). |
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08-12-20 | White Sox -111 v. Tigers | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 15 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago over Detroit at 1:10 pm et on Wednesday. The White Sox bounced back from a series-opening loss with a blowout victory here in the Motor City last night and I expect to see them build on that performance in a quick turn-around spot on Wednesday afternoon. The Tigers had a huge series in Pittsburgh over the weekend, plating a whopping 30 runs over the course of a three-game sweep. While Detroit is off to a fine start this season, we're still talking about a small sample size and in the long-run, I believe the White Sox will prove to be the better of these A.L. Central rivals. Dylan Cease will take the ball for Chicago on Wednesday. After struggling in his season debut, Cease has pitched well over his last two starts, allowing just seven hits and two earned runs over 11 innings. This is more of a play against Tigers starter Matthew Boyd, however. I guess you could say he had a career year last season but that's not saying much as he went 9-12 with a 4.56 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 32 starts. In that campaign he saw his walks per nine innings drop while his strikeouts per nine innings went up significantly. Here so far in 2020 we've seen a reversal of that and not surprisingly his numbers bear it out with a 9.20 ERA and 1.90 WHIP. Take Chicago (10*). |
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08-11-20 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies -105 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 23 h 41 m | Show |
N.L. West Game of the Month. My selection is on Colorado over Arizona at 8:40 pm et on Tuesday. I really like the way this one sets up for the Rockies on Tuesday night. D'Backs starter Zac Gallen has done nothing but impress since making his big league debut last season but I believe he's in for a rough night here. Note that while Gallen's strikeouts per nine innings are up slightly early on this season, so are his walks. While his 2.81 ERA is terrific, he has already been tagged for three home runs through 16 innings of work. Enter Coors Field on Tuesday night. Kyle Freeland will counter for Colorado. He endured a disastrous 2019 campaign but let's not write him off just yet. Keep in mind, just two years ago Freeland posted a stellar 2.85 ERA in 33 big league starts. So far this season he has recorded a 2.41 ERA and 1.07 WHIP through 18 2/3 innings. He's seen his walk totals drop under three per nine innings for the first time in his career. Take Colorado (10*). |
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08-11-20 | Cubs v. Indians OVER 8 | 7-1 | Push | 0 | 22 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Cleveland at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. Expect plenty of offensive fireworks as the Cubs and Indians do battle in a 2016 World Series rematch on Tuesday. Jon Lester is off to a tremendous start for the Cubs this season, perhaps turning back the hands of time after struggling last year. I'm not sure his success is sustainable. He's not missing a lot of bats and faces a tough Indians lineup here on Tuesday. Meanwhile, Adam Plutko is nothing more than a stop-gap for Cleveland as it goes through some starting rotation woes. He's been routinely owned by opposing bats over the course of his big league career, struggling as a starter in each of the last two seasons. He has posted a solid 2.57 ERA and 0.86 WHIP so far this season, but that's through just seven innings of work. Take the over (10*). |
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08-11-20 | Nationals v. Mets +135 | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Washington at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Mets got absolutely thrashed by the Nationals last night but I look for them to bounce back here at Citi Field on Tuesday. Max Scherzer returns from a hamstring injury for the Nats'. I'm simply not buying what the Nats' ace is selling so far this season as his walk totals are way up and he has generally looked quite ordinary through three starts. Meanwhile, Mets journeyman starter Rick Porcello tossed seven strong innings, allowing just one earned run, against the Nats' last week and I'm confident we'll see a solid effort from him again here. The oddsmakers are giving Scherzer too much runway with this inflated price. Take New York (10*). |
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08-11-20 | Royals v. Reds OVER 9 | 5-6 | Win | 103 | 21 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Kansas City and Cincinnati at 6:40 pm et on Tuesday. I had a strong lean to the 'under' in Royals rookie Kris Bubic's most recent start, which ultimately turned out to be a 6-1 loss to the Cubs. Here, I look for plenty of offense as the suddenly surging Royals travel to Cincinnati to face the Reds. Bubic missed plenty of bats against the Cubs last time out but I'm not sure his success is sustainable. He'll be making his first road start of the season. Note that he made one start away from home back in Spring Training and got lit up for four earned runs and couldn't make it out of the second inning against the White Sox. Luis Castillo will counter for the Reds. His strikeout numbers are up so far this season but he has also been hit hard, allowing 18 hits and nine earned runs in 17 innings of work. After issuing just 2.6 walks per nine innings in 2018, Castillo handed out 3.7 last year and that number is up over three again so far this season. Take the over (10*). |
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08-11-20 | Marlins +1.5 v. Blue Jays | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 21 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami +1.5 runs over Toronto at 6:37 pm et on Tuesday. I'll take a flyer with the Marlins here as the Blue Jays face some considerable distraction as they play their first "home" game here at renovated Sahlen Field in Buffalo. Toronto continues to struggle out of the gates this season, never really recovering from an early layoff as a result of a postponed series with the Phillies. The Jays will have ace Hyun-Jin Ryu on the hill for this one but I can't help but feel that leaves them overvalued, especially with Ryu coming off a strong bounce-back performance against the Braves last week. Elieser Hernandez looked good in his season debut for the Marlins and I believe he'll be good enough to keep the Marlins in this game as well. Take Miami +1.5 runs (10*). |
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08-10-20 | A's v. Angels UNDER 9 | Top | 9-10 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 50 m | Show |
A.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Oakland and Los Angeles at 9:40 pm et on Monday. The A's are off to a terrific start this season, currently running away with the A.L. West division lead. They've been doing it with solid pitching, sitting in a tie for third in baseball in runs allowed per game. They rank just 23rd in the majors in both batting average and slugging percentage and I'm not convinced they'll rack up a ton of runs in the opener of this series in Anaheim. Julio Teheran will take the ball for the Angels. He struggled in his debut with his new club but is certainly capable of bouncing back here, noting that he has posted a sub-4.00 ERA in each of the last two seasons as a member of the Braves. Like Teheran, A's starter Sean Manaea is also off to a tough start this season, albeit with a larger sample size. It is worth noting, however, that his strikeouts per nine innings are up while his walks are down. Keep in mind, he posted an incredible 1.21 ERA in just five starts last season. Two years ago he made 27 starts for the A's and recorded a solid 3.59 ERA. The Angels check in 24th in baseball in batting average and 17th in slugging percentage. Take the under (10*). |
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08-09-20 | Rockies v. Mariners OVER 8 | 3-5 | Push | 0 | 5 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Colorado and Seattle at 4:10 pm et on Sunday. Off a low-scoring contest last night I look for a little more offense in Sunday's series finale between the Rockies and Mariners in Seattle. German Marquez is off to a stellar start this season having posted a 1.89 ERA and a 0.89 WHIP in 19 innings of work but I'm not sure those numbers are sustainable. The Mariners know they'll need to get something done at the dish if they're going to contend with the hot hitting Rockies here today. That's especially true when you consider they'll hand the ball to rookie Justus Sheffield, who has really struggled, posting a 9.39 ERA and 1.83 WHIP, lasting only 7 2/3 innings so far this season. Take the over (10*). |
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08-07-20 | Astros v. A's +100 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
MLB A.L. West Game of the Month. My selection is on Oakland over Houston at 9:10 pm et on Friday. The A's are off to an incredible 9-4 start this season, pacing the A.L. West. Meanwhile, Houston continues to scuff its heels, sitting at 6-6. The Astros will obviously be looking to put some pressure on the A's over the course of this weekend series but I like Oakland in the opener on Friday night. Zack Greinke will take the ball for Houston. He pitched well last time out after struggling in his season debut. Note that he's worked just nine innings through two starts, allowing seven hits and five earned runs. Chris Bassitt will counter for Oakland. He has posted a 0.93 ERA and 0.93 WHIP through two starts this season. Bassitt has actually been quite consistent at the big league level, most recently going 10-5 with a 3.81 ERA and 1.19 WHIP last season. In three seasons where he has made at least 11 appearances he has posted a 3.81 ERA or better. Take Oakland (10*). |
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08-06-20 | Brewers v. White Sox OVER 9 | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. We saw a pitching duel in this matchup last night as the Brewers prevailed by a 1-0 score. I expect a much different story to unfold on Thursday, however. Josh Lindblom will take the ball for Milwaukee. He labored through this first start this season and I expect more of the same here. Note that he has made more than a single start in a season only once in his career, that coming back in 2013 when he made five starts for the Rangers, ultimately posting a 5.46 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in eight appearances that year. Gio Gonzalez will counter for the White Sox. He's coming off a fine outing but there's no question he's on the downside of his career arc, managing only 23 starts since 2018 due to injuries and otherwise. He has yet to last through the fourth inning in two starts so far this season. Take the over (10*). |
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08-06-20 | Blue Jays v. Braves -127 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta over Toronto at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. Look for the Braves to get back at the Blue Jays after suffering a tough 2-1 loss last night. Atlanta simply ran into an elite pitcher who was at the top of his game on Wednesday night with Hyun-Jin Ryu tossing a gem. They face another tough starter tonight, but an unproven one in rookie Nate Pearson. He impressed in his big league debut against the Nationals last week but I anticipate some regression here in his second start. Touki Toussaint hasn't had a great deal of success at the big league level since debuting in 2018 but the Braves are in tough with an injury-riddled starting rotation and need him to step up and help fill the void here. I'm high enough on the Braves bats that I believe they can get it done against a struggling Jays offense here. Take Atlanta (10*). |
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08-05-20 | Blue Jays v. Braves -130 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -130 | 21 h 12 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Game of the Month. My selection is on Atlanta over Toronto at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. I'm not sure it matters who the Braves go up against right now, they're red hot at the dish and capable of scoring runs in bunches. They're expected to face Jays ace Hyun-Jin Ryu on Wednesday - a stiff challenge to be sure - but I think they'll be up for it and we're being offered a discounted price to back them. Sean Newcomb has been inconsistent so far this season but faces a Jays lineup that hasn't really been able to get loose this season - with last weekend's postponed games in Philadelphia certainly not helping matters. Look for the Braves to stay hot on Wednesday night. Take Atlanta (10*). |
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08-02-20 | Indians v. Twins UNDER 9.5 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under‘ between Cleveland and Minnesota at 2:10 pm et on Sunday. Travel day on Sunday. Full analysis will return on Monday. |
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08-01-20 | Padres v. Rockies +110 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 110 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
N.L. West Game of the Month. My selection is on Colorado over San Diego at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. The Padres are off to an incredible start to the season thanks to an explosive offense but I am anticipating some regression moving forward. Joey Lucchesi will take the ball for San Diego on Saturday. Now in his third big league season, he has settled in as a middle of the road starter and certainly showed more of that in his season debut last week, lasting only 3 2/3 innings against the D'Backs. Kyle Freeland is off to a fine start for the Rockies after giving up just two earned runs in six frames against the Rangers last week. He was awful for the Rockies last season but has proven he can succeed at this level, going 17-7 with a 2.85 ERA in 2018. I'm willing to take a flyer on him, not to mention the Rockies bats, here on Saturday night as they bounce back from a tough loss last night. Take Colorado (10*). |
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07-31-20 | Indians v. Twins +107 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 107 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
A.L. Central Game of the Month. My selection is on Minnesota over Cleveland at 8:10 pm et on Friday. Look for the Twins to bounce back following last night's shutout loss against the Indians. Minnesota ran into a red hot pitcher in Indians ace Shane Bieber last night and while it faces another stiff challenge against Mike Clevinger on Friday, I am confident we'll see the Twins gain a little more traction at the dish. Minnesota is off to a fine start this season, having won four of its first six contests. While we're only dealing with a small sample size, the Twins do check in ranking fourth in the league in runs scored and T6 in runs allowed. Randy Dobnak will get the nod for the Twins on Friday. He was effective over four innings in his season debut against the White Sox last week, allowing just one earned run. While the Indians are winning, they're not doing a lot of damage offensively and I look for that to catch up to them here. Take Minnesota (10*). |
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07-30-20 | Indians v. Twins UNDER 9 | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 28 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Minnesota at 7:07 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'under' in Shane Bieber's season debut against the Royals last week - a no sweat ticket from start to finish - and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Bieber remains one of the most underrated and undervalued starters in baseball as far as I'm concerned. He picked up right where he left off following a tremendous 2019 campaign, tossing six shutout innings while striking out 14 last Friday night against the Royals. Jose Berrios didn't get off to the start he had hoped for, as he was rocked by the White Sox in his season debut. I do expect a better showing from the right-hander here as he returns home to the friendly confines of Target Field. Since a shaky rookie campaign in 2016, Berrios has been terrific at the big league level - last season posting a 3.68 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in over 200 innings of work. Take the under (10*). |
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07-29-20 | Diamondbacks v. Rangers UNDER 8.5 | 4-7 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Arizona and Texas at 4:05 pm et on Wednesday. I'm expecting a well-pitched game between the D'Backs and Rangers on Wednesday afternoon as two veteran starters go head-to-head at Globe Life Park. Madison Bumgarner will take the ball for the Giants. Despite posting the highest ERA of his career, Bumgarner matched his career-high in games started and exceeded his career-high in strikeouts per nine innings while also recording a career-low in walks per nine innings last season. He didn't get off to the start he hoped for with the D'Backs in his 2020 debut, allowing three earned runs while striking out only four and walking three in 5 2/3 innings of work last week. Look for a solid bounce-back performance from the veteran left-hander here. Lance Lynn will counter for the Rangers. Despite pitching for three different teams over the last three seasons he has seemingly gotten better with each passing year. He actually finished fifth in A.L. Cy Young voting last season, posting a 3.67 ERA and 1.22 WHIP while recording a career-high 10.6 strikeouts per nine innings. In his 2020 debut he tossed six innings of two-hit shutout ball against the Rockies last week. Take the under (10*). |
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07-28-20 | Dodgers -140 v. Astros | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 23 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over Houston at 9:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Dodgers inexplicably managed only a 2-2 split against projected bottom-feeders, the Giants, to start the season. Now they head to Houston for a seemingly tougher series against the defending A.L. champion Astros but I look for Los Angeles to get the series off to a winning start on Tuesday night. The jury is still out as to whether Astros starter Framber Valdez belongs in a big league rotation. He struggled mightily last year and is essentially only starting here as a stop-gap with ace Justin Verlander sidelined. Meanwhile, Walker Buehler is a bonafide star in the making for the Dodgers, making his first start of the season on Tuesday. He improved on both his strikeouts per nine innings and walks per nine innings last season, ultimately posting a 3.26 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in an All-Star campaign. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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07-28-20 | Braves v. Rays UNDER 9 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 21 h 51 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Tampa Bay at 6:40 pm et on Tuesday. I like the 'under' in this matchup on Tuesday night, after we saw a whopping 19 runs cross home plate in last night's series opener. Kyle Wright has struggled in 11 career big league appearances for the Braves over the last two seasons but I expect to see him settle down after locking down the fifth spot in the Atlanta rotation with Cole Hamels still on the shelf. Wright rounded into form during Summer Camp and draws a reasonable matchup here catching the Rays off a big performance last night. Yonny Chirinos will counter for the Rays. He was late joining the Rays after testing positive for Covid-19 but by all accounts he's back to full health now. Chirinos is starting his third big league season after pitching well in both 2018 and 2019. Last season he allowed just 112 hits and posted a 114:28 strikeout to walk ratio in 133 1/3 innings of work. The Braves have been quite inconsistent at the plate in the early going this season with young slugger Ronald Acuna Jr. in particular struggling out of the gate. Take the under (10*). |
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07-28-20 | Blue Jays v. Nationals -126 | 5-1 | Loss | -126 | 20 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington over Toronto at 6:05 pm et on Tuesday. This is a tremendous bounce-back spot for the Nationals coming off last night's game of wasted opportunities in a 4-1 loss to the Blue Jays. Toronto is off to a reasonably solid start this season but key injuries are already piling up with closer Ken Giles and sophomore hitting machine Bo Bichette among those sidelined. Washington hasn't gotten off to the start it would have hoped but that had a lot to do with starting the season with a tough series against the Yankees. Here, the Nationals will hand the ball to Austin Voth. After struggling in limited work in 2018, Voth settled in nicely last season, making eight starts and posting a 3.30 ERA and posting a 44:13 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 43 2/3 innings of work. Note that he didn't need to throw more than 96 pitches in any of those outings. Veteran Tanner Roark will make his Blue Jays debut on Tuesday night. The Jays will be the fourth team he has pitched for since 2018. There's a reason for that. Roark has struggled across a number of recent seasons, essentially going back to 2017. He hasn't posted an ERA lower than 4.24 in a season since then. Prior to that he had recorded sub-3.00 ERA's in three of his first four big league seasons. Unlike last night, look for the Nats to cash in on their opportunities against the Jays on Tuesday as they snap a two-game skid. Take Washington (10*). |
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07-27-20 | Mariners v. Astros UNDER 9.5 | 5-8 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Seattle and Houston at 7:10 pm et on Monday. We saw a high-scoring affair between these two clubs on Sunday afternoon but I expect a different story to unfold on Monday. Kendall Graveman wowed the Mariners staff during Summer Camp and I look for him to hold his own against the mighty Astros in this matchup. A fresh start with a new team might be just what the doctor ordered for Graveman after he struggled in limited work with the A's last season. Note that he has seen his strikeout per nine innings increase over each of the last three seasons. Josh James served as a reliever for the Astros last season but is pressed into starting duty as the 2020 campaign gets underway. James is a hard-throwing strikeout pitcher that should find some success against a relatively inexperienced Mariners batting order. If James can figure out his command issues he could be a force at the back of the Astros rotation. Take the under (10*). |
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07-27-20 | Braves v. Rays -148 | Top | 5-14 | Win | 100 | 21 h 12 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Game of the Month. My selection is on Tampa Bay over Atlanta at 6:40 pm et on Monday. The Braves are coming off a breakout performance at the plate last night in New York but I look for the Rays to keep them at bay in St. Petersburg on Monday. Atlanta will hand the ball to Mike Foltynewicz, who is coming off a strong Summer Camp. Keep in mind, he has posted just one sub-4.24 ERA season over the course of his six-year big league career. That came in a true outlier season in 2018. Last year, Foltynewicz posted a 4.97 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. Here, he faces a Rays lineup that showed signs of busting out while notching back-to-back wins over the Jays over the weekend. The Rays will start Tyler Glasnow on Monday. He has made 23 starts since joining the Rays two seasons ago, allowing just 82 hits in 116 1/3 innings of work. Last season he was limited due to injury but posted a 1.78 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in 60 2/3 innings. I look for him to rise to the challenge of facing a loaded Braves lineup on Monday. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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07-27-20 | Blue Jays v. Nationals -124 | 4-1 | Loss | -124 | 20 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington over Toronto at 6:05 pm et on Monday. We cashed a ticket fading the Jays on Saturday and while they probably deserved a better fate than a 6-5 extra innings loss yesterday, the fact is they enter Monday's series-opener in Washington sporting a 1-2 record - identical to that of the Nationals. I look for Washington to get the better of Toronto here. Trent Thornton will take the ball for Toronto. He was something of a workhorse for the Jays during his rookie season last year, but wasn't overly successful posting a 4.84 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. I feel that there's a considerable drop-off following Hyun-Jin Ryu at the top of the Jays rotation. That hasn't really been evident yet this season but here I look for the Nats' to take advantage of that fact. Keep in mind, Toronto lost closer Ken Giles to an apparent injury in yesterday's game. Veteran Anibal Sanchez will counter for Washington. He is coming off a solid 2019 campaign that saw him go 11-8 with a 3.85 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. By all accounts he pitched well in both Spring Training and Summer Camp and I'm confident he'll give the Nats a strong outing in his 2020 debut on Monday night. The Jays had one big inning yesterday but have generally had a tough time getting going through their first three games this season. Take Washington (10*). |
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07-26-20 | Braves v. Mets UNDER 9.5 | 14-1 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and New York at 7:08 pm et on Sunday. Neither offense has come roaring out of the gates, which is probably to be expected. I believe we're dealing with a slightly higher total than we should be in Sunday night's series finale. Sean Newcomb will make the start for the Braves. After making 49 starts in 2017 and 2018 only four of his 55 appearances last year were starts. He has managed to lower his walks per nine innings total in each of his first three seasons. He still puts too many runners on base in general but I do think he's catching the Mets at the right time as they continue to shake off the rust at the dish. Rick Porcello gets the nod for the Mets, making his team debut. Like Newcomb, he tends to put too many runners on base but continues to be serviceable in the latter stages of his lengthy big league career. While the Braves offense has a ton of upside, we haven't seen it through the first two days of the season and I'm confident the veteran Porcello can navigate this lineup on Sunday night. Take the under (10*). |
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07-25-20 | Mariners v. Astros -1.5 | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston -1.5 runs over Seattle at 4:10 pm et on Saturday. The Astros have been getting it from all angles ever since the news of their cheating scandal broke so you have to think they're happy to just get back to playing baseball. They certainly have a point to prove here in the early going of this shortened MLB campaign and got off to a solid start with a victory over Seattle last night. I expect them to rack up another lopsided win on Saturday afternoon. I'm actually pretty high on the Mariners in the long-term picture but given their very difficult schedule and the amount of youth on their roster, 2020 is likely to be a struggle. They'll send Taijuan Walker to the hill on Saturday as he makes his return to the M's after a stint in the National League with the D'Backs. He should find the going a little tougher back in the Junior Circuit and draws an especially tough matchup here against a loaded Astros lineup. Meanwhile, Lance McCullers Jr. is back on the mound after missing all of last season due to injury. He looked outstanding during Summer Camp and by all accounts is good to go as he makes his long-awaited season debut here in 2020. Going back to Spring Training, he allowed two earned runs over 4 2/3 innings, striking out six and most encouragingly walking only one. If McCullers can keep his command in check he has the potential to be one of the most dominant starters in the American League as far as I'm concerned. Look for him to help guide the Astros to a convincing win here as we'll lay the extra run to get a better price with the home side. Take Houston -1.5 runs (10*). |
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07-25-20 | Blue Jays v. Rays -137 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 1 m | Show |
MLB A.L. East Game of the Month. My selection is on Tampa Bay over Toronto at 3:10 pm et on Saturday. There's plenty of excitement around the Blue Jays and that certainly wasn't dampened following an impressive 6-4 victory on opening night in St. Petersburg. I do look for the Rays to get back at the Jays on Saturday afternoon, however, as they send Ryan Yarbrough to the mound against Matt Shoemaker. Yarbrough started last season as a bit of an experiment, with the Rays sending relievers to the hill in 'opening' roles, although he ultimately stretched it out and made more conventional starts as the season went on. Yarbrough performed reasonably well, with an ERA just over four and a WHIP under 1.00. Perhaps most encouraging was the fact that he brought his walks per nine innings total down from 3.1 in 2018 to 1.3 in 2019. Shoemaker is coming off three straight injury-shortened seasons. Last year he managed to make only five starts, pitching very well in those outings, before bowing out. Because of his injury-plagued nature it's a little difficult to get a good read on Shoemaker, made even more difficult so by the strange circumstances around the 2020 campaign. I do feel there's a considerable drop-off from Hyun-Jin Ryu, who pitched last night, to Shoemaker here at the top of the Jays rotation and I look for the Rays to take advantage on Saturday afternoon. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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07-24-20 | Angels v. A's -130 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 86 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oakland over Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Friday. Andrew Heaney gets the nod for the Angels. He's your prototypical middle of the road big league starter. If anything he's regressed since turning in a somewhat impressive rookie campaign back in 2015. He made 18 starts last season and finished with an ERA just a shade under five at 4.91. His strikeouts per nine innings were up, but so were his walks. Here, he faces an A's club that has to like the setup of this truncated MLB season, where anything can and probably will happen. Heaney went up against the A's twice last season, pitching well against them late in the year after an awful performance against them in June. Frankie Montas has quietly settled in over the last two seasons, posting a 3.88 ERA and 1.46 WHIP two years ago before a tremendous 16-start run last year, recording a 2.63 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. His strikeouts per nine innings were up significantly over the year previous while his walks were slightly down. Everything points to Montas continuing his upswing here in a Covid-shortened 2020 campaign. The Angels always get some love from bettors thanks to the presence of Mike Trout in the order but outside of his all-world talent, there's not a lot to get excited about. I like the short price being offered with an optimistic A's club here in the opener. Take Oakland (10*). |
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07-24-20 | Royals v. Indians UNDER 8.5 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 84 h 31 m | Show |
A.L. Central Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Kansas City and Cleveland at 7:10 pm et on Friday. I really like the way this one sets up as a relatively low-scoring affair on Friday night at Progressive Field. While I'm not particularly high on Royals starter Danny Duffy, there's no question he's a 'serviceable' left-handed big league starter, and capable of keeping the Indians bats at bay here in the 2020 opener. The Indians really didn't do a lot to improve their order during the offseason and as will likely be a theme here early on, I expect the pitchers to be slightly ahead of the hitters in this odd July start to the campaign. Note that Duffy lasted at least six innings in both starts against Cleveland last season. Shane Bieber is the Indians undisputed ace, and would be an ace on most big league staffs to be honest. While he's still relatively early in his career, Bieber remains one of the more underrated starters in the bigs as far as I'm concerned. Bieber incredibly enters this campaign having worked at least into the sixth inning in 20 consecutive starts - a streak I look for him to continue here against the Royals. Kansas City does have some upside at the dish but once again, I'll take the pitchers over the hitters here in late July. Take the under (10*). |
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09-03-19 | Tigers v. Royals OVER 9.5 | 5-6 | Win | 106 | 11 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Detroit and Kansas City at 8:15 pm et on Tuesday. Ideal hitting conditions along with a subpar pitching matchup lead us to a play on the 'over' at Kauffman Stadium on Tuesday night. Daniel Norris takes the ball for Detroit. It hasn't been a banner year for Norris as he checks in with a 4.66 ERA and 1.38 WHIP despite his solid 111:36 strikeout-to-walk ratio. The Royals are suddenly hitting, having plated 29 runs in their last five games. Mike Montgomery will counter for Kansas City and he has been wildly inconsistent this season. He faces a Tigers club that has scored 21 runs in their last four games. Take the over (10*). |
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09-03-19 | Mariners v. Cubs OVER 9.5 | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -112 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
MLB Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and Chicago at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. With ideal hitting conditions weather-wise and a matchup of two veteran starters winding down their careers and not pitching particularly well, I absolutely love the way this one sets up as a high-scoring affair at Wrigley Field. Felix Hernandez will take the ball for Seattle. He has made two starts since returning from injury, giving up eight hits and five earned runs, including three home runs, in only 10 2/3 innings of work. He sports an ERA north of six and a 1.42 WHIP in limited action this season. Jon Lester counters for Chicago. He owns a 4.36 ERA and 1.44 WHIP and comes into this one in wildly inconsistent form having allowed at least five earned runs in three of his last six starts. Mixed in that stretch was a home start against Oakland in which he gave up 10 hits and 11 runs, nine of them earned, over just four innings right here at home. Count on plenty of offensive fireworks on Tuesday night in the Windy City. Take the over (10*). |
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09-03-19 | Giants v. Cardinals OVER 8 | 0-1 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between San Francisco and St. Louis at 7:45 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the 'under' in this matchup yesterday afternoon but that had everything to do with the situation as the Cards were back home following rare back-to-back double-headers on the weekend, not to mention the Giants traveling after playing at home on Sunday afternoon. Here, the conditions are ripe for a slugfest as San Francisco sends Dereck Rodriguez and his 5.49 ERA and 1.44 WHIP against Jack Flaherty who is on a red hot run, but one that I don't believe is sustainable. Take the over (10*). |
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09-03-19 | White Sox v. Indians OVER 9.5 | 6-5 | Win | 101 | 10 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Cleveland at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Indians offense came to life in an 11-3 win over the White Sox last night and I'm confident they'll keep it going against Dylan Cease and his 6.92 ERA and 1.63 WHIP on Tuesday. Chicago will be in tough against Mike Clevinger, who has admittedly been pitching well lately, although I will point out that the Indians right-hander has lasted at least six innings only once in his last four starts. Chicago has plated over four runs per game over its last five contests and getting into that range should prove more than enough for our 'over' play on Tuesday. Take the over (10*). |
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09-02-19 | Giants v. Cardinals UNDER 9 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Francisco and St. Louis at 2:15 pm et on Monday. We have a couple of things working in our favor here, even if the pitching matchup isn't first-rate. First of all, the early start helps, especially with the Cardinals off back-to-back double-headers against the Reds over the weekend. We've seen the St. Louis bats cool off a bit after a red hot run, averaging under four runs per contest over its last six games. The Giants travel from San Fran after suffering an 8-4 loss to the Padres yesterday afternoon. Save for an eight-run outburst on Friday night, the Giants offense has been fairly abysmal over the last week or so. Take the under (10*). |
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08-29-19 | A's v. Royals OVER 10 | 9-8 | Win | 100 | 3 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Oakland and Kansas City at 1:15 pm et on Thursday. With first pitch only a few hours ago I'll keep my analysis of this play short. We have a low-rate pitching matchup with Chris Bassitt going up against Glenn Sparkman and ideal weather conditions to support the bats at Kauffman Stadium on Thursday afternoon. I'm anticipating a high-scoring affair. Take the over (10*). |
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08-27-19 | Twins v. White Sox OVER 9 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
MLB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. This series produced a 1-1-1 o/u mark just last week in Minnesota but we did cash the lone 'over' result - a game that produced a whopping 18 runs. Michael Pineda was on the hill for the Twins in that game and he'll take the ball for them again tonight. Note that his 11 road starts have averaged just shy of 11 total runs per game this season. The White Sox will be getting their fourth look at Pineda this season and had their best game against him last week, plating four earned runs in seven innings in that aforementioned 14-4 loss. Lucas Giolito tossed a rare complete game shutout against the Twins last week. There's really not a lot negative I can write about the White Sox ace. I will point out, however, that the Twins will be seeing him for the fourth time since June 30th and have had some previous success against him. The last time they faced him here in Chicago they racked up seven earned runs in five innings in a 10-3 victory. Minnesota also scored seven earned runs off of Giolito in his final start against them last season. Note that the Twins average well north of six runs per game on the road this season. Take the over (10*). |
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08-27-19 | Cubs v. Mets UNDER 8.5 | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and New York at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. Neither of these teams are scoring with a great deal of consistency right now and I'm anticipating a relatively low-scoring affair on Tuesday night at Citi Field. Yu Darvish will take the ball for the Cubs. He labored through his last start, allowing six earned runs but has still worked at least into the sixth inning in eight of his last nine outings overall. He has been at his best on the road this season where he has posted a 3.75 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. Marcus Stroman will counter for New York. After allowing seven earned runs in 10 1/3 innings in his first two starts with the Mets, he has bounced back giving up just three earned runs in his last two outings, spanning 9 1/3 innings. Take the under (10*). |
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08-26-19 | Pirates v. Phillies UNDER 9 | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'under' here as we have a better pitching matchup than most are giving credit for. Joe Musgrove has had an up and down season for the Pirates but did hold the Phillies to just two hits over six shutout innings back on July 20th. He has actually been a better pitcher on the road this season, where he has posted a 4.02 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. Meanwhile, Phillies starter Jason Vargas has recorded a stellar 2.95 ERA and 1.22 WHIP at home. His home starts are averaging just 7.45 total runs. Take the under (10*). |
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08-25-19 | Rays v. Orioles UNDER 9.5 | 3-8 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Tampa Bay and Baltimore at 1:05 pm et on Sunday. With the Rays struggling to score with any consistency right now and the Orioles still one of if not the worst team in baseball I’ll back the ‘under’ in Sunday’s series finale. We’ve picked on O’s starter Dylan Buddy a lot this season but whole his overall numbers are awful, he has pitched better and more consistently of late. He has given up two earned runs or less in five of his last eight stars. The Rays will go with Diego Castillo as their ‘opener’ on Sunday and that suits our purposes just fine against the light-hitting O’s. Take the under (10*). |
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08-24-19 | Tigers v. Twins OVER 10.5 | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Detroit and Minnesota at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. We saw a high-scoring contest between these two teams last night with the Tigers pulling out an improbable 9-6 win. I expect another offensive onslaught on Saturday evening at Target Field. Edwin Jackson takes the ball for the Tigers. He's at the tail-end of his career and really not able to get out big league hitters consistently at this point. Last time out he gave up five runs, four of them earned, on seven hits while walking four over five innings against the Astros. I don't see him faring much better here. Kyle Gibson will counter for Minnesota. While he does own a solid 11-6 record this season he has posted a less than impressive 4.40 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. The 'over' has gone 14-9-2 in his 25 starts to date and in his last three outings he has given up 13 earned runs in 16 innings of work. Take the over (10*). |
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08-24-19 | Rangers v. White Sox -127 | 4-0 | Loss | -127 | 11 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago over Texas at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. The White Sox are surging right now and I believe they're being undervalued considerably on Saturday night against Texas. Kolby Allard will take the ball for the Rangers. This will be his fourth consecutive start and he has labored through his first three, giving up 14 hits and 11 earned runs while walking eight in 15 innings of work. He has yet to work a full six innings. Veteran Ivan Nova will counter for Chicago. He has recorded wins in each of his last three starts. Nova's ERA sat around six at the end of June but he has steadily improved since, with that number now at 4.47. You would have to go back seven starts to find the last time he gave up more than two earned runs in an outing. Take Chicago (10*). |
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08-22-19 | Nationals v. Pirates UNDER 8.5 | 7-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and Pittsburgh at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. There are reasons for caution in playing the 'under' at PNC Park on Thursday night. After all, Nats' starter Max Scherzer will be making his first start since July. On the flip side, the Nats' offense has been absolutely on fire and after scoring just a single run in a series-opening loss on Tuesday, bounced back to plate 11 runs last night. With that being said, I believe we're set up well for a relatively low-scoring affair on Thursday night. Scherzer kept his ERA below three since the first week of June and has worked at least seven innings in seven of his last eight starts. Meanwhile, Buccos starter Steven Brault has improved as the season has gone on, bringing his ERA down from north of seven on May 24th to just over four today. Last time out he held a good Cubs lineup to just two hits and one earned run over seven innings. Take the under (10*). |
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08-21-19 | Phillies v. Red Sox OVER 11.5 | 5-2 | Loss | -112 | 11 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and Boston at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a somewhat surprisingly low-scoring game between these two teams last night but I expect a much different story to unfold on Wednesday. With favorable weather conditions for the hitters and a less than impressive pitching matchup, I'm confident we'll see plenty of offensive fireworks. Drew Smyly will take the ball for the Phillies. Smyly pitched well when he first came over to the Phillies but has since gone in the tank, allowing 14 earned runs and six home runs over his last three starts, spanning just 15 2/3 innings. Needless to say, he'll face a tough challenge in one of the best lineups in baseball on Wednesday night. Meanwhile, Red Sox starter Rick Porcello owns a winning record but has recorded an inflated 5.49 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. He benefited from facing a struggling Orioles offense in his last start, but prior to that had given up five earned runs over five innings against the Angels on August 10th. Take the over (10*). |
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08-21-19 | White Sox v. Twins OVER 9 | 4-0 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Minnesota at 1:10 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the 'over' in this matchup last night and I won't hesitate to go right back to the well with the same play on Wednesday afternoon. Lucas Giolito will take the ball for Chicago. The last time he faced the Twins he got lit up for seven earned runs. Minnesota will be getting its third look at the right-hander this season. Jake Odorizzi will counter for the Twins. He has lasted six innings only once going all the way back to June 20th. Note that the White Sox have scored 44 runs over their last seven games. Take the over (10*). |
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08-20-19 | White Sox v. Twins OVER 9.5 | 4-14 | Win | 106 | 11 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Minnesota at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. I expect to see plenty of runs on the board as the White Sox take on the Twins at Target Field on Tuesday night. Reynaldo Lopez will take the ball for Chicago. Sporting a 5.29 ERA and 1.50 WHIP, needless to say he's not enjoying a good season. Lopez has been lit up for 28 hits and 10 earned runs over his last four starts, covering a span of 22 1/3 innings of work. Now he faces a Twins lineup that ranks tied for second in baseball in runs scored and all alone in second in hits. Michael Pineda will counter for Minnesota. The last time he faced the White Sox he gave up just two earned runs in seven innings but now they'll be getting their second look at him in less than a month. Note that the White Sox have now scored a whopping 40 runs in their last six games, including a 6-4 victory here last night. Take the over (10*). |
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08-20-19 | Giants v. Cubs OVER 9.5 | 3-5 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between San Francisco and Chicago at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. I absolutely love the way this one sets up as a high-scoring affair and fully expect to see the total bump up a run or so before the end of the day (I still like the over if that move happens). Tyler Beede will take the ball for the Giants. His ERA has risen to its highest point since late June as he has been tagged for a whopping 22 earned runs on 40 hits over just 23 1/3 innings in his last five starts. Things don't figure to get any easier against a good Cubs offense with the wind blowing out at Wrigley Field on Tuesday. Like Beede, Cubs starter Cole Hamels has also struggled lately, giving up 12 earned runs on 17 hits over his last two starts, spanning just five innings. Keep in mind, those two outings came in hitter's parks in Cincinnati and Philadelphia but with excellent hitting conditions expected tonight, again things won't get any easier. Take the over (10*). |
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08-20-19 | Brewers v. Cardinals OVER 9.5 | Top | 4-9 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
MLB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and St. Louis at 7:45 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a low-scoring game between these two clubs last night as the Cardinals won by a 3-0 score. I'm anticipating more in the way of offensive fireworks on Tuesday, however. Gio Gonzalez will take the ball for the Brewers. He's obviously on the down side of his career and his numbers reflect that this season. Gonzalez has failed to work beyond the fifth inning in any of his last three starts, allowing seven earned runs in 13 innings over that stretch. He's been tagged for four home runs while issuing seven walks over his last two trips to the hill. Michael Wacha will counter for St. Louis. He has recorded an inflated 5.44 ERA and 1.63 WHIP this season and hasn't worked beyond the fifth inning since way back on June 28th. In Wacha's last two outings he has given up eight earned runs in 8 2/3 innings. Take the over (10*). |
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08-19-19 | Royals v. Orioles OVER 10 | 5-4 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Kansas City and Balitmore at 7:05 pm et on Monday. I like the way this one sets up as a high-scoring affair on a hot and humid night at the ballpark in Baltimore with a less than appealing pitching matchup on tap. Jorge Lopez will take the ball for the Royals. His ERA has sat north of six going all the way back to early May. In his last two appearances he has been tagged for six earned runs in 4 2/3 innings of work. There's little reason to expect him to come up with a solid performance here as the Orioles return home off a solid weekend at the plate in Boston. John Means will counter for Baltimore. He got off to a great start this season but has seen his ERA rise from 2.50 on July 3rd to 3.76 today. Over his last three outings he has failed to last a full four innings once, giving up 13 earned runs in 10 2/3 innings. Take the over (10*). |
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08-16-19 | Dodgers v. Braves UNDER 10 | 8-3 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Los Angeles and Atlanta at 7:20 pm et on Friday. We won with the under in the Braves wild 10-8 loss to the Mets last night but I’ll go the other way and back the under tonight. We have a solid pitching matchup with Kenta Maeda going for the Dodgers and Mike Soroka on the hill for the Braves. With weather factors supporting a low-scoring affair I’ll back the under. Take the under (10*). |
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08-15-19 | Mets v. Braves OVER 10 | 10-8 | Win | 100 | 7 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Atlanta at 7:20 pm et on Thursday. Last night's matchup between these two teams saw just one run scored through the first six innings but still managed to reach a total of 10 thanks to a seven-run seventh. I believe the potential is there for an even higher-scoring affair on a hot and humid night in Atlanta on Thursday. Marcus Stroman will take the ball for the Mets. His excellent stuff will scare away plenty of 'over' bettors but consider that in two starts since joining New York he has given up 16 hits and seven earned runs in just 10 1/3 innings of work. He certainly faces a tough challenge here as the Braves are top seven in baseball in both hits and runs scored. Julio Teheran will counter for Atlanta. He has certainly turned things around following a tough start to the season but isn't close to what I would consider an elite starter. He lasted just five innings in a 6-4 loss to the Reds in his most recent home start. The Mets check in top 10 in the majors in hits and sit in the top half in runs scored as well. Take the over (10*). |
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08-14-19 | Cardinals v. Royals UNDER 9.5 | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 6 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between St. Louis and Kansas City at 8:15 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a low-scoring affair between these two teams last night and I anticipate more of the same on Wednesday. Dakota Hudson has labored through his last few starts, failing to work beyond the fourth inning in any of them. However, he is a 10-game winner and prior to that stretch owned an ERA well south of four. I like the bounce-back spot against the lowly Royals here. Brad Keller has worked at least into the sixth inning in seven straight starts for the Royals. He was roughed up in Detroit last time out, ending a streak of three consecutive outings working exactly seven innings. Note that when he last faced the Cards back on May 22nd, he gave up just two earned runs on two hits over seven innings. Take the under (10*). |
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08-14-19 | A's v. Giants OVER 9 | Top | 9-5 | Win | 103 | 6 h 34 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Oakland and San Francisco at 3:45 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a low-scoring game between these two clubs last night but I expect a different story to unfold on Wednesday. Homer Bailey will take the ball for Oakland. He got roughed up last time out, allowing seven earned runs in just 4 2/3 innings against the Cubs. While Bailey does own a winning record this season, he hasn't pitched well, posting a 5.54 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. Likewise, Giants starter Tyler Beede has also struggled, recording a 5.61 ERA and 1.58 WHIP. He has given up at least four earned runs in four straight starts, allowing 32 hits in just 19 1/3 innings over that stretch. Take the over (10*). |
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08-13-19 | Astros v. White Sox OVER 9.5 | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Chicago at 4:40 pm et on Tuesday. I'll back the 'over' in the first half of the double-header between the Astros and White Sox on Tuesday afternoon. Zack Greinke will get the call for Houston. He hasn't worked more than six innings in any of his last three starts and most recently gave up five earned runs on seven hits over six frames against the Rockies in his first start as a member of the Astros. White Sox starter Dylan Cease has been pretty awful in limited work for Chicago this season, posting a 6.00 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in 33 innings. With the Astros having scored a whopping 87 runs in their last nine games I'm confident saying that Cease is in for a long (or more likely short) day at the ballpark on Tuesday. Take the over (10*). |
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08-12-19 | Reds v. Nationals OVER 10 | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Cincinnati and Washington at 7:05 pm et on Monday. This is one of the highest totals on the board for a reason as the Reds and Nats do battle on a hot and humid night in Washington. Reds starter Anthony DeSclafani hasn't worked a full six innings in any of his last three starts and has been tagged for seven earned runs in just 10 1/3 innings over his last two outings. Erick Fedde is coming off a solid six-inning effort last time out, but prior to that had given up nine earned runs in just 3 2/3 innings in his last start. He owns a less than impressive 1.42 WHIP and a poor 32:25 strikeout-to-walk ratio this season. Take the over (10*). |
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08-12-19 | Orioles v. Yankees OVER 11 | Top | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 3 h 1 m | Show |
MLB A.L. East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Baltimore and New York at 1:05 pm et on Monday. I'll keep my analysis brief in the interest of time as this total was just released this morning. The O's are riding high following a wild, come-from-behind 8-7 win over the Astros yesterday and I look for them to have continued success offensively against James Paxton and the Yankees on a hot and humid afternoon in the Bronx. Meanwhile, the Yankees bats were relatively silent against the Jays over the weekend but should have little trouble bouncing back against Gabriel Ynoa and his 5.57 ERA here. Note that the Yanks just faced Ynoa back on August 5th and he didn't make it through the fifth inning. Take the over (10*). |
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08-11-19 | Pirates v. Cardinals OVER 8.5 | 9-11 | Win | 100 | 6 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Pittsburgh and St. Louis at 2:15 pm et on Sunday. This has been a fairly low-scoring series with the first two games producing just 12 runs but I expect a different story to unfold on Sunday afternoon. Steven Brault has posted overall solid numbers for the Pirates in some regard, having gone 3-1 with a 4.09 ERA that drops to 3.93 on the road. However, his WHIP stands at 1.50 overall and 1.60 on the road. His starts are averaging over 11 total runs. Brault has faced the Cardinals three times in his career, never lasting a full five innings. Miles Mikolas has pitched well for the Cardinals, particularly of late, but the Pirates will be getting their third look at him since July 15th and I expect them to have some success. Note that Mikolas has been weaker in daytime starts, where he owns a 4.61 ERA. Take the over (10*). |
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08-11-19 | Cubs v. Reds UNDER 9.5 | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Cincinnati at 1:10 pm et on Sunday. The 'over' has gone 6-1 in the Reds last seven games and 5-1-1 in the Cubs last seven contests but I'll go against the trend on Sunday. Jon Lester will take the ball for the Cubs. He has really struggled lately but has recorded a 3.28 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in daytime starts this season. Lester has worked at least into the sixth inning in four straight starts against Cincinnati. Luis Castillo will counter for the Reds. He has worked at least six innings in six of his last seven starts overall. In his last two outings he has given up just three earned runs while striking out 20 and walking just one in 14 innings. The 'under' has gone a perfect 4-0 in his last four starts against the Cubs. Take the under (10*). |
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08-11-19 | Angels v. Red Sox OVER 11.5 | 5-4 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Boston at 1:05 pm et on Sunday. We've seen 20 and 16 runs scored in this matchup the last two nights and I expect more of the same on Sunday afternoon. Patrick Sandoval will make his first big league start for the Angels. He has posted an ERA north of six while allowing 84 hits in 60 1/3 innings at the Triple-A level this season. He'll be facing a Red Sox lineup that hits .283 as a team and averages 6.2 runs per game here at home. Andrew Cashner will counter for Boston. He continues to struggle with his new club, having now allowed 24 earned runs in 28 2/3 innings since coming over from Baltimore. Take the over (10*). |
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08-10-19 | Angels v. Red Sox OVER 11.5 | 12-4 | Win | 101 | 8 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Boston at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. We won with the 'over' in last night's matchup between these two teams - a game that reached 20 runs. I expect another high-scoring affair on Saturday afternoon. Andrew Heaney takes the ball for the Angels. He has lasted six innings just once in his last seven starts. His numbers have been consistently poor across the board, and he has posted a 5.28 ERA and 1.63 WHIP over his last three starts. Rick Porcello will counter for the Red Sox. Like Heaney, he has posted an ERA north of five this season. He has given up at least five earned runs in five of his last eight starts overall. Take the over (10*). |
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08-09-19 | Indians v. Twins OVER 9 | 6-2 | Loss | -125 | 11 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Minnesota at 8:10 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'over' at Target Field on Friday night. Shane Bieber has been outstanding for the Indians but here the Twins will be getting their third look at the right-hander this season. They've reached him for five earned runs in 13 1/3 innings in 2019. All told, the Twins will be facing Bieber for the sixth time since May 31st of last year. Devin Smeltzer will counter for Minnesota. He has pitched well in three spot starts this season, although one of those outings came against the same Indians he'll face tonight, and he gave up five earned runs in 6 1/3 innings in that one. Take the over (10*). |
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08-09-19 | Angels v. Red Sox OVER 11.5 | 4-16 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Boston at 7:10 pm et on Friday. I'm calling for a slugfest in Beantown on Friday night as two less than impressive starters take the mound. Jaime Barria has been awful for the Angels this season, posting an ERA well north of six in 46 2/3 innings of work. He has yet to work beyond the fifth inning in any of his six starts this season. Brian Johnson will counter for Boston. He has pitched just 17 innings, but like Barria, has also recorded an ERA just shy of seven. Johnson has been one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball, allowing 30 hits in 17 frames. Take the over (10*). |
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08-08-19 | Cubs v. Reds OVER 9.5 | 12-5 | Win | 104 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Chicago and Cincinnati at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. Traveling today. Full writeups will return on Friday. |
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08-07-19 | Marlins v. Mets OVER 8.5 | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 5 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Miami and New York at 12:10 pm et on Wednesday. We missed the mark with the over in this matchup last night but I won’t hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Wednesday afternoon. Jordan Yamamoto will take the call for Miami. He has struggled in his last three starts, allowing 15 earned runs in 14 innings of work. Meanwhile, Mets starter Steven Matz was tagged for five earned runs over 3 2/3 innings in his last start and has posted a 4.60 ERA and 1.40 WHIP this season. With the wind blowing out on a sticky afternoon in Queens, look for plenty of offense. Take the over (10*). |
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08-06-19 | A's v. Cubs UNDER 9.5 | Top | 11-4 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Total of the Week. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Oakland and Chicago at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the over in this matchup last night but I won’t hesitate to switch gears and back the under on Tuesday night. Two veteran starters will take the ball. Brett Anderson goes for the A’s. He had worked at least six innings in five of his last six starts, allowing three earned runs or less in five of those outings as well. Jon Lester counters for the Cubs. He has gone at least into the sixth inning in seven of his last eight trips to the hill. With the wind expected to be blowing in, I’ll back the under. Take the under (10*). |
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08-06-19 | Royals v. Red Sox OVER 10.5 | 6-2 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Kansas City and Boston at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. This series got off to a relatively high-scoring start last night and I expect more of the same on Tuesday. After a solid stretch, Royals starter Jakob Junis has gone back in the tank over his last two outings, allowing 10 earned runs on 16 hits over 13 innings of work. Meanwhile Andrew Cashner has had a tough time since joining the Red Sox, giving up 18 earned runs on 31 hits over just 23 1/3 innings pitched. His last two starts have totalled a whopping 28 runs. Look for the bats to once again prevail on a sticky night in Boston. Take the over (10*). |
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08-06-19 | Marlins v. Mets OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -107 | 7 h 42 m | Show |
MLB N.L. East Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Miami and New York at 7:10 pm et on Monday. I’m expecting plenty of offense as the Mets look to build on last night‘s victory which pushed them over the .500 mark for the first time since May. Note the pitching change for the Marlins with Noesi starting in place of Yamomoto. I’ll still play the over following the change as the Mets are playing with plenty of confidence at the dish and should have little trouble getting to the journeyman Hector Noesi, who hasn’t pitched in the big leagues since he was a member of the White Sox back in 2015. Zack Wheeler tossed seven shutout innings for the Mets in his last start but prior to that had been tagged for nine earned runs over two starts, spanning 10 1/3 innings. The Marlins are reeling right now but have still managed to score at least four runs in four of their last six contests and we don’t need a slugfest to cash this ticket given the relatively low total. Take the over (10*). |
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08-05-19 | A's v. Cubs OVER 9.5 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Oakland and Chicago at 8:05 pm et on Monday. We settled for a push with the under as the Cubs completed a sweep of the Brewers yesterday but I’ll go the other way and back the over as they open a series with the A’s on Monday. It was a relatively low scoring series between the Cubs and Brewers but I believe the conditions are right for a slugfest here. Note that A’s starter Chris Bassitt has been far better at home than on the road lately where he has been tagged for 12 earned runs in his last 16 2/3 innings. Kyle Hendricks is enjoying a tremendous campaign for the Cubs but faces a tough challenge against an A’s club that has plated 17 runs during its current three-game winning streak. Take the over (10*). |
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08-05-19 | Brewers v. Pirates OVER 9.5 | Top | 9-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
MLB N.L. Central Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Milwaukee and Pittsburgh at 7:05 pm et on Monday. Both the Brewers and Pirates enter this series struggling which would lead many to believe we‘re In for a relatively low-scoring affair on Monday night. I expect a different story to unfold, however. Jordan Lyles will face his former club in the series opener. Lyles hasn’t pitched particularly well here at PNC Park this season, allowing 23 earned runs in his last 23 innings pitched here. Dario Agrazal will counter for the Buccos. His last start totaled just five runs against the Reds but don’t be fooled by that result as Agrazal didn’t get out of the fourth inning in that game. After steady performance in his first handful of big league starts, Agrazal has now given up eight earned runs in just nine frames over his last two outings. Take the over. |
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08-04-19 | Brewers v. Cubs UNDER 9 | 2-7 | Push | 0 | 4 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and Chicago at 2:20 pm et on Sunday. I'll stick with the trends and call for another relatively low-scoring affair between the Brewers and Cubs on Sunday afternoon. Chicago has scored more than four runs just twice over its last 12 games. Likewise, the Brewers have topped out at five runs over their last nine games and haven't scored more than four runs in any of their last six contests. Brewers starter Adrian Houser has gotten better as the season has gone on, allowing just one earned run on three hits over five innings last time out against Oakland. Yu Darvish has worked at least six innings in five straight starts for the Cubs, allowing two earned runs or less in three of his last four outings. Take the under (10*). |
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08-02-19 | Reds v. Braves OVER 9 | 5-2 | Loss | -104 | 13 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Cincinnati and Atlanta at 7:20 pm et on Friday. The opener of this series was low-scoring as Atlanta cruised to a 4-1 victory. I expect to see a different story unfold on Friday night, however. Alex Wood will take the ball for the Reds. He labored a bit in his first start back from injury, needing 80 pitches to get through 4 2/3 innings against the Rockies. Note that he'll be facing a Braves club that averages 5.5 runs per game at home this season. Kevin Gausman will counter for Atlanta. He's been rocked in two previous starts against the Reds, giving up 13 earned runs on 16 hits over eight innings of work. Gausman has never looked all that comfortable pitching for the Braves this season, posting an ERA just shy of six to go along with a 1.45 WHIP. Take the over (10*). |
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08-02-19 | White Sox v. Phillies OVER 9.5 | 4-3 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Friday. The White Sox offense has been dormant lately but I do like them to bounce back against Jason Vargas and the Phillies on Friday night. Vargas will of course be making his first start with his new club. While he had pitched better than expected for the Mets this season I'm not sure he's going to be the savior in the Phils rotation. He's become comfortable pitching in the National League but here will have to face an American League club in his debut with Philadelphia. Ivan Nova will counter for Chicago. He's coming off back-to-back solid outings but prior to that had been lit up for 10 earned runs over a two-start stretch. I'm not expecting Nova to find much success against a Phillies lineup that has produced at least seven runs in three of their last five games. Take the over (10*). |
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07-31-19 | Rays v. Red Sox OVER 10.5 | 8-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Tampa Bay and Boston at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. The over has now cashed in five straight games involving the Red Sox and I expect more of the same on another hot and humid night at Fenway Park on Wednesday. There’s no reason to downgrade either offense with Andrew Kittredge starting for the Rays and Rick Porcello going for the Sox. Porcello is coming off a fine outing but has been largely inconsistent this season, posting a 5.55 ERA and 1.45 WHIP. He’ll have his work cut out against a Rays offense that has racked up 25 runs over their last three contests. Meanwhile Boston is averaging 10 runs per game over its last five. Take the over (10*). |
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07-30-19 | Giants v. Phillies OVER 10 | 2-4 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between San Francisco and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. I'm anticipating a high-scoring affair on another hot and humid evening in Philadelphia on Tuesday night. Tyler Beede will take the ball for the Giants. He has labored through the season to be sure, with an ERA approaching five overall and closer to six on the road. His road starts have averaged a total of nearly 11 runs. Journeyman lefty Drew Smyly will counter for Philadelphia. He was sharp in his first start with Philadelphia, but that came against the struggling Pirates. Before coming over he had given up 12 earned runs on 14 hits over 6 1/3 innings of work in his last two starts with the Rangers. The 'under' went 5-2 in seven meetings between these two clubs last season but as the relatively high total indicates, I believe we'll see a different story unfold on Tuesday. Take the over (10*). |
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07-29-19 | Pirates v. Reds OVER 10 | Top | 6-11 | Win | 100 | 1 h 53 m | Show |
MLB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Pittsburgh and Cincinnati at 7:10 pm et on Monday. |
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07-26-19 | Cubs v. Brewers +100 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 22 h 10 m | Show |
MLB Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Milwaukee over Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Friday. The Brewers didn't exactly take care of business to open this homestand, dropping two of three games against the Reds. They did, however, salvage the finale of that series and I look for them to notch another victory on Friday night against the Cubs. Chicago travels from San Francisco, where it dropped two of three games as well. The Cubs are a miserable 19-29 on the road this season. Kyle Hendricks is a losing pitcher on a winning team, having gone 7-8 with a 3.41 ERA this season. He's been at his worst on the road where he's 3-6 with a 5.44 ERA. Note that Chicago is giving Hendricks just north of two runs per game when he takes the ball on the road this season. Gio Gonzalez will counter for Milwaukee. He returned from a 'dead arm' to throw four somewhat effective innings against Arizona last time out. In 10 1/3 innings pitched at Miller Park this season he has recorded a terrific 0.87 WHIP. Also note that Gonzalez turned in one of his best outings of the season against the Cubs, pitching 5 2/3 innings of two-hit, shutout ball back in May. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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07-25-19 | Twins v. White Sox UNDER 8.5 | 10-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. After a wild, high-scoring series against the Yankees which was almost certainly aided by the hot and humid weather in Minnesota, I fully expect the scoring to settle down as the Twins head to Chicago to take on the White Sox. You would have to go all the way back to May 18th to find the last time Twins starter Jose Berrios gave up more than three earned runs in a start. Since then, he has worked at least into the sixth inning in eight of 10 outings. He has also given up three earned runs or less in five straight starts against Chicago, allowing exactly one earned run in three of those outings. Lucas Giolito is quietly putting together a tremendous campaign for the White Sox. His starts are averaging just over 7.3 total runs. Giolito's three career home starts against Minnesota have totaled 5, 3 and 7 runs. With four of the White Sox last five contests totaling six runs or less, I'm looking for another low-scoring affair here. Take the under (10*). |
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07-25-19 | Cardinals v. Pirates UNDER 9 | Top | 6-3 | Push | 0 | 15 h 14 m | Show |
MLB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and St. Louis at 12:35 pm et on Thursday. We saw a high-scoring affair between these two teams last night but I expect a different story to unfold on Thursday afternoon as the Cards and Pirates close out their four-game series. While St. Louis did bust out offensively last night, it's worth noting that they had scored a grand total of 15 runs over their previous four contests. The Pirates remain in an offensive lull. Entering last night's game they hadn't plated more than five runs in a game since July 7th. Miles Mikolas will take the ball for St. Louis. He owns miserable numbers on the road this season, with an ERA north of seven. However, he has actually pitched well in two of his last three outings away from home and has posted a 3.32 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in his last three starts overall. He has allowed just five earned runs in 21 innings of work against the Pirates this season. Mikolas has given up two earned runs or less in six of eight career starts against the Buccos. Joe Musgrove will counter for Pittsburgh. He has posted a solid 1.08 WHIP over his last three outings and a 1.13 WHIP at home this season. He tossed six innings of two-hit shutout ball against the hot-hitting Phillies last time out. Musgrove hasn't fared well against the Cardinals over the course of his career but in his lone home start against them he tossed seven shutout innings. Conditions should favor the pitchers on Thursday with relatively low humidity in the ballpark. Take the under (10*). |
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07-24-19 | Reds v. Brewers -147 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 13 m | Show |
MLB Blowout Game of the Week. My selection is on Milwaukee over Cincinnati at 2:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Brewers have dropped the first two games of this series, with their pitching really letting them down, allowing 20 runs in those two losses. I believe the price is reasonable to back the Brewers to avoid the sweep on Wednesday afternoon. Jhoulys Chacin started the season a perfect 2-0 but has gone a miserable 1-10 since. He got rocked in his last start in Arizona but has actually pitched well here at home recently, allowing just two earned runs over his last two starts at Miller Park, covering a span of 10 innings. Lucas Sims will counter for the Reds. He has posted solid numbers this season but we're talking about a very small sample size as he has worked just 9 2/3 innings. The Brewers do continue to perform well offensively, having plated 54 runs over their last eight games, scoring at least five runs in each of those contests. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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07-24-19 | Red Sox v. Rays -109 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 4 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay over Boston at 12:10 pm et on Wednesday. Motivation will be high for the Rays to avoid the sweep at the hands of the Red Sox at home on Wednesday afternoon. I like their chances to do just that with Charlie Morton on the hill. Morton has quietly put together an 11-3 record and ever since his ERA dipped below 3.00 back on April 27th against these same Red Sox, it has never surpassed that number again, currently standing at 2.61. Red Sox starter David Price has been solid as well, although his numbers don't match those of Morton. I do get the sense that Price is going through a bit of a lull, failing to work beyond the fifth inning in any of his last three starts. Last time out he gave up six earned runs in a loss in Baltimore. The Rays entered this game with a two-game edge over the Red Sox but that has disappeared. Look for them to salvage the final game of the series on Wednesday. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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07-23-19 | Cubs v. Giants +1.5 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Francisco +1.5 runs over Chicago at 9:45 pm et on Tuesday. I have no problem paying the tariff to back the Giants plus an insurance run as they continue their series with the Cubs on Tuesday night. Factoring in the +1.5 run-line, the Giants are now 13-1 over their last 14 games and 24-5 over their last 29 games going back to June 20th. We have a terrific pitching matchup on tap tonight with Yu Darvish going for the Cubs against Madison Bumgarner of the Giants. I do feel that Bumgarner has a bit of a motivational edge here as he tries to help the Giants into the Wild Card hunt while also potentially auditioning for other teams prior to the trade deadline. Behind Bumgarner is one of the best bullpens in the league. With San Francisco suddenly heating up at the dish as well, I'm willing to back them even off a win in the opener of this series last night. Take San Francisco +1.5 runs (10*). |
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07-23-19 | Reds v. Brewers -132 | 14-6 | Loss | -132 | 8 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on Milwaukee over Cincinnati at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. We're laying a reasonable number with the Brewers here, largely due to the solid numbers Tanner Roark has posted for the Reds this season. With that being said, we faded Roark in his last start and were rewarded with a 7-4 Cardinals win, even though he did hold his own for five innings before the bullpen coughed it up. Roark has now been tagged for at least one home run in each of his last five starts, giving up a grand total of nine dingers over that stretch. Kyle Davies will counter for Milwaukee. He brings excellent form to the table, having allowed just two earned runs on 17 hits over 23 1/3 innings in his last four starts. Davies didn't fare well the last time he faced the Reds back in May but did keep them at bay in his first start against them, and the Brew Crew have still managed to win both of this starts versus Cincinnati this season. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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07-22-19 | Marlins v. White Sox -110 | 1-9 | Win | 100 | 23 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago over Miami at 8:10 pm et on Monday. The White Sox aren't being given much respect by the oddsmakers here and it's largely due to the presence of Ivan Nova on the mound. He has been one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball this season. With that being said, despite his ERA north of seven, the Sox have still managed to go an even 4-4 when he takes the ball at home this season. It's also worth noting that Nova has worked at least into the sixth inning in seven of his last nine outings. Trevor Richards is an 11-game loser for the Marlins and you would have to go back five starts to find the last time he worked into the sixth inning. The Marlins last victory with Richards on the hill came way back on June 2nd in San Diego. Chicago did lose yesterday's series finale against the Rays, but still managed to win that series. Meanwhile, the Marlins have to travel all the way from Los Angeles where they were swept by the Dodgers. Take Chicago (10*). |
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07-22-19 | Yankees v. Twins +112 | 6-8 | Win | 112 | 8 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota over New York at 8:10 pm et on Monday. I really like the way this spot sets up for the Twins as they look to build off the momentum from yesterday's win, which salvaged a four-game split against the A's. CC Sabathia will take the ball for the Yankees. He has shown a pretty strong home-road dichotomy, posting an ERA well north of five on the road. The Twins are one of the best teams in baseball and can obviously score with anyone, even the Yankees. Fresh off yesterday's eight-run outburst I do look for them to get to Sabathia here. Martin Perez has cooled somewhat following his red hot start to the season but he checks in having worked at least six innings in three straight starts and will be looking to earn his ninth victory of the season. It's worth noting that the Twins actually lead the league in slugging, OPS and home runs and sit second in team batting average. The Yankees rank no higher than fourth in any of those categories. Take Minnesota (10*). |
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07-21-19 | Brewers v. Diamondbacks UNDER 9 | 7-4 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and Arizona at 4:10 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'under' as the Brewers and D'Backs wrap up their four-game series on Sunday afternoon. Brandon Woodruff will take the ball for Milwaukee. He has worked at least six innings in each of his last seven starts. Woodruff has allowed only three earned runs over his last three outings, spanning 20 1/3 innings of work. He actually pitched here once last season, giving up just one hit and two earned runs over five innings. Alex Young counters for the D'Backs. He has been extremely efficient, needing fewer than 80 pitches while working at least five innings in each of his first three starts. Young has allowed just six hits and two earned runs over those three outings, covering a span of 16 1/3 innings. Take the under (10*). |
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07-20-19 | Cardinals v. Reds UNDER 9 | 2-3 | Win | 101 | 10 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between St. Louis and Cincinnati at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. These two teams were involved in a wild, high-scoring slugfest last night but I look for a different story to play out on Saturday. While the first two games in this series have gone 'over' the total, the Cards and Reds have actually both trended to the 'under' this season. Miles Mikolas owns some awful road numbers this season but he has actually held his own in two career starts here in Cincinnati, allowing four earned runs over 12 innings. Luis Castillo has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season and has been particularly sharp here at home, where he has posted a 1.69 ERA and 0.88 WHIP. The 'under' is 7-3 in his 10 home starts, with those games averaging just over seven total runs. He has allowed just two earned runs in 18 innings in his last three outings against St. Louis. Take the under (10*). |
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07-19-19 | Marlins +255 v. Dodgers | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 58 m | Show |
MLB National League Game of the Month. My selection is on Miami over Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Friday. I can't ignore the value being offered with the underdog Marlins here as they catch the Dodgers in a favorable spot. While Miami is 22 games under .500 on the season, it has actually gone a respectable 26-27 over its last 53 games. The Marlins are coming off a series with over the Padres while the Dodgers return home after a roller-coaster series in Philadelphia that saw a total of 57 runs scored. Marlins starter Zac Gallen has had an up and down start to his big league career but comes in off five days' rest and has fared alright in two previous road starts, allowing three earned runs while posting an 8:3 strikeout-to-walk ratio over seven innings of work (the Marlins split those two games winning in St. Louis but losing in Washington). Hyun-Jin Ryu will counter for Los Angeles. He has obviously been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season and checks in sporting a perfect 9-0 team record here at Dodger Stadium. Ryu owns a 2-1 team record in three career starts against the Marlins, however he hasn't faced them since 2017 and prior to that his other two outings against them came way back in 2013. I simply feel the Dodgers could be in for a bit of a letdown off back-to-back series' three time zones away in Boston and Philadelphia and the price doesn't properly reflect probability in this particular situation. Take Miami (10*). |
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07-19-19 | Brewers v. Diamondbacks +120 | 7-10 | Win | 120 | 14 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona over Milwaukee at 9:40 pm et on Friday. The Brewers took the opening game of this series last night, cooling off the D'Backs previously red hot bats in the process. I do look for Arizona to bounce back on Friday, however, as they look to tee off on Milwaukee starter Jhoulys Chacin. The Brewers have won just five times in 17 games with Chacin on the hill this season. He has posted a 6.38 ERA on the road and to make matters worse, the Brew Crew have given him just over two runs per start to work with on the highway. D'Backs starter Taylor Clarke hasn't impressed by any means. In fact, he also owns an ERA north of six at home. With that being said, Arizona has managed to go just one game under .500 in his nine starts this season and the Snakes are giving him an incredible seven runs of support to work with per start. Milwaukee has won three games in a row but remains five games under .500 on the road this season. Take Arizona (10*). |
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Sean Murphy MLB Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
08-17-20 | Padres v. Rangers UNDER 8.5 | 14-4 | Loss | -100 | 26 h 2 m | Show | |
08-15-20 | Rangers v. Rockies -157 | 6-4 | Loss | -157 | 22 h 49 m | Show | |
08-15-20 | A's v. Giants +1.5 | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show | |
08-15-20 | Mets v. Phillies UNDER 8.5 | 2-6 | Win | 105 | 20 h 59 m | Show | |
08-14-20 | Padres v. Diamondbacks +120 | 1-5 | Win | 120 | 24 h 49 m | Show | |
08-14-20 | Rangers v. Rockies UNDER 12.5 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 23 h 9 m | Show | |
08-14-20 | Braves v. Marlins OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 22 h 32 m | Show |
08-13-20 | Padres v. Dodgers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 2-11 | Loss | -107 | 24 h 49 m | Show |
08-13-20 | Nationals +119 v. Mets | 2-8 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 51 m | Show | |
08-12-20 | Cubs v. Indians UNDER 8 | 7-2 | Loss | -108 | 20 h 21 m | Show | |
08-12-20 | White Sox -111 v. Tigers | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 15 h 28 m | Show | |
08-11-20 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies -105 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 23 h 41 m | Show |
08-11-20 | Cubs v. Indians OVER 8 | 7-1 | Push | 0 | 22 h 32 m | Show | |
08-11-20 | Nationals v. Mets +135 | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 5 m | Show | |
08-11-20 | Royals v. Reds OVER 9 | 5-6 | Win | 103 | 21 h 10 m | Show | |
08-11-20 | Marlins +1.5 v. Blue Jays | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 21 h 45 m | Show | |
08-10-20 | A's v. Angels UNDER 9 | Top | 9-10 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 50 m | Show |
08-09-20 | Rockies v. Mariners OVER 8 | 3-5 | Push | 0 | 5 h 4 m | Show | |
08-07-20 | Astros v. A's +100 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
08-06-20 | Brewers v. White Sox OVER 9 | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show | |
08-06-20 | Blue Jays v. Braves -127 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show | |
08-05-20 | Blue Jays v. Braves -130 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -130 | 21 h 12 m | Show |
08-02-20 | Indians v. Twins UNDER 9.5 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 5 m | Show | |
08-01-20 | Padres v. Rockies +110 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 110 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
07-31-20 | Indians v. Twins +107 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 107 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
07-30-20 | Indians v. Twins UNDER 9 | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 28 h 47 m | Show | |
07-29-20 | Diamondbacks v. Rangers UNDER 8.5 | 4-7 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 10 m | Show | |
07-28-20 | Dodgers -140 v. Astros | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 23 h 2 m | Show | |
07-28-20 | Braves v. Rays UNDER 9 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 21 h 51 m | Show |
07-28-20 | Blue Jays v. Nationals -126 | 5-1 | Loss | -126 | 20 h 25 m | Show | |
07-27-20 | Mariners v. Astros UNDER 9.5 | 5-8 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 29 m | Show | |
07-27-20 | Braves v. Rays -148 | Top | 5-14 | Win | 100 | 21 h 12 m | Show |
07-27-20 | Blue Jays v. Nationals -124 | 4-1 | Loss | -124 | 20 h 11 m | Show | |
07-26-20 | Braves v. Mets UNDER 9.5 | 14-1 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 50 m | Show | |
07-25-20 | Mariners v. Astros -1.5 | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 37 m | Show | |
07-25-20 | Blue Jays v. Rays -137 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 1 m | Show |
07-24-20 | Angels v. A's -130 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 86 h 21 m | Show | |
07-24-20 | Royals v. Indians UNDER 8.5 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 84 h 31 m | Show |
09-03-19 | Tigers v. Royals OVER 9.5 | 5-6 | Win | 106 | 11 h 22 m | Show | |
09-03-19 | Mariners v. Cubs OVER 9.5 | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -112 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
09-03-19 | Giants v. Cardinals OVER 8 | 0-1 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 55 m | Show | |
09-03-19 | White Sox v. Indians OVER 9.5 | 6-5 | Win | 101 | 10 h 23 m | Show | |
09-02-19 | Giants v. Cardinals UNDER 9 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 48 m | Show | |
08-29-19 | A's v. Royals OVER 10 | 9-8 | Win | 100 | 3 h 8 m | Show | |
08-27-19 | Twins v. White Sox OVER 9 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
08-27-19 | Cubs v. Mets UNDER 8.5 | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show | |
08-26-19 | Pirates v. Phillies UNDER 9 | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 13 m | Show | |
08-25-19 | Rays v. Orioles UNDER 9.5 | 3-8 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 1 m | Show | |
08-24-19 | Tigers v. Twins OVER 10.5 | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show | |
08-24-19 | Rangers v. White Sox -127 | 4-0 | Loss | -127 | 11 h 34 m | Show | |
08-22-19 | Nationals v. Pirates UNDER 8.5 | 7-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 41 m | Show | |
08-21-19 | Phillies v. Red Sox OVER 11.5 | 5-2 | Loss | -112 | 11 h 30 m | Show | |
08-21-19 | White Sox v. Twins OVER 9 | 4-0 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 16 m | Show | |
08-20-19 | White Sox v. Twins OVER 9.5 | 4-14 | Win | 106 | 11 h 25 m | Show | |
08-20-19 | Giants v. Cubs OVER 9.5 | 3-5 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
08-20-19 | Brewers v. Cardinals OVER 9.5 | Top | 4-9 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
08-19-19 | Royals v. Orioles OVER 10 | 5-4 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 2 m | Show | |
08-16-19 | Dodgers v. Braves UNDER 10 | 8-3 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 39 m | Show | |
08-15-19 | Mets v. Braves OVER 10 | 10-8 | Win | 100 | 7 h 2 m | Show | |
08-14-19 | Cardinals v. Royals UNDER 9.5 | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 6 h 23 m | Show | |
08-14-19 | A's v. Giants OVER 9 | Top | 9-5 | Win | 103 | 6 h 34 m | Show |
08-13-19 | Astros v. White Sox OVER 9.5 | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 39 m | Show | |
08-12-19 | Reds v. Nationals OVER 10 | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show | |
08-12-19 | Orioles v. Yankees OVER 11 | Top | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 3 h 1 m | Show |
08-11-19 | Pirates v. Cardinals OVER 8.5 | 9-11 | Win | 100 | 6 h 55 m | Show | |
08-11-19 | Cubs v. Reds UNDER 9.5 | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 45 m | Show | |
08-11-19 | Angels v. Red Sox OVER 11.5 | 5-4 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 48 m | Show | |
08-10-19 | Angels v. Red Sox OVER 11.5 | 12-4 | Win | 101 | 8 h 19 m | Show | |
08-09-19 | Indians v. Twins OVER 9 | 6-2 | Loss | -125 | 11 h 38 m | Show | |
08-09-19 | Angels v. Red Sox OVER 11.5 | 4-16 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show | |
08-08-19 | Cubs v. Reds OVER 9.5 | 12-5 | Win | 104 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
08-07-19 | Marlins v. Mets OVER 8.5 | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 5 h 17 m | Show | |
08-06-19 | A's v. Cubs UNDER 9.5 | Top | 11-4 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
08-06-19 | Royals v. Red Sox OVER 10.5 | 6-2 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 44 m | Show | |
08-06-19 | Marlins v. Mets OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -107 | 7 h 42 m | Show |
08-05-19 | A's v. Cubs OVER 9.5 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show | |
08-05-19 | Brewers v. Pirates OVER 9.5 | Top | 9-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
08-04-19 | Brewers v. Cubs UNDER 9 | 2-7 | Push | 0 | 4 h 23 m | Show | |
08-02-19 | Reds v. Braves OVER 9 | 5-2 | Loss | -104 | 13 h 49 m | Show | |
08-02-19 | White Sox v. Phillies OVER 9.5 | 4-3 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 40 m | Show | |
07-31-19 | Rays v. Red Sox OVER 10.5 | 8-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 16 m | Show | |
07-30-19 | Giants v. Phillies OVER 10 | 2-4 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 34 m | Show | |
07-29-19 | Pirates v. Reds OVER 10 | Top | 6-11 | Win | 100 | 1 h 53 m | Show |
07-26-19 | Cubs v. Brewers +100 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 22 h 10 m | Show |
07-25-19 | Twins v. White Sox UNDER 8.5 | 10-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 42 m | Show | |
07-25-19 | Cardinals v. Pirates UNDER 9 | Top | 6-3 | Push | 0 | 15 h 14 m | Show |
07-24-19 | Reds v. Brewers -147 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 13 m | Show |
07-24-19 | Red Sox v. Rays -109 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 4 h 48 m | Show | |
07-23-19 | Cubs v. Giants +1.5 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 24 m | Show | |
07-23-19 | Reds v. Brewers -132 | 14-6 | Loss | -132 | 8 h 22 m | Show | |
07-22-19 | Marlins v. White Sox -110 | 1-9 | Win | 100 | 23 h 45 m | Show | |
07-22-19 | Yankees v. Twins +112 | 6-8 | Win | 112 | 8 h 18 m | Show | |
07-21-19 | Brewers v. Diamondbacks UNDER 9 | 7-4 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 3 m | Show | |
07-20-19 | Cardinals v. Reds UNDER 9 | 2-3 | Win | 101 | 10 h 16 m | Show | |
07-19-19 | Marlins +255 v. Dodgers | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 58 m | Show |
07-19-19 | Brewers v. Diamondbacks +120 | 7-10 | Win | 120 | 14 h 16 m | Show |