Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
04-10-24 | A's v. Rangers -1.5 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 112 | 14 h 32 m | Show |
A.L. West Game of the Month. My selection is on Texas -1.5 runs over Oakland at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. The A's have inexplicably reeled off three straight wins but I look for that streak to end on Wednesday. Ross Stripling will get the start for Oakland. He caught lightning in a bottle in his most recent outing, getting involved in a pitching duel with Nick Pivetta of the Red Sox in an eventual 1-0 loss. Those type of impressive outings are likely to be few and far between for the journeyman starter this season, however. After his line drive percentage rocketed last season it has held through two starts this year as well. I look for the Rangers bats to feast. Cody Bradford doesn't get much attention near the back of the Rangers starting rotation but he has the potential to be a quality arm for the defending champs again this year. Bradford won't overwhelm hitters with his pitch velocity but he makes the most of his pitch arsenal and has recorded a 2.91 FIP and 0.47 WHIP through two outings this season. The A's have been winning but have a small margin for error averaging only 3.0 runs per game on the season. Take Texas -1.5 runs (10*). |
|||||||
04-10-24 | Nationals v. Giants -1.5 | 1-7 | Win | 107 | 8 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Francisco -1.5 runs over Washington at 3:45 pm et on Wednesday. The Giants are reeling right now having dropped the first two games of this series but I look for them to bounce back on Wednesday. Patrick Corbin will get the start for Washington. The beauty of fading Corbin is that as poorly as he's likely to pitch, the Nationals aren't going to lift him from the game early. He's quite simply an innings eater at this stage of his career with a FIP approaching six and a WHIP nearing two already this season. Jordan Hicks continues to get run out as a starter for the Giants and so far, so good. Hicks had a terrific spring and has recorded a sub-2.00 FIP and 0.75 WHIP in 12 regular season innings. We'll lay the extra run in this spot. Take San Francisco -1.5 runs (8*). |
|||||||
04-10-24 | Dodgers v. Twins UNDER 9 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 16 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Minnesota at 1:10 pm et on Wednesday. Bobby Miller and Chris Paddack are two starting pitchers that I'm willing to support in the early going this season. Miller is coming off a shaky outing against the Cubs at Wrigley Field but still sports a 2.45 FIP and 1.17 WHIP through his first two starts this season. He's got the potential to eventually be a top of the rotation arm for the Dodgers. Meanwhile, Chris Paddack continues to work his way back from 2022 Tommy John surgery. The Twins are believers in him and I am as well, noting that the right-hander has showed flashes for Minnesota after shining at the minor league level in brief action in each of the last two seasons. Paddack won't be asked to do too much in this matinee affair but can fend the Dodgers off long enough to help this one stay 'under' the total. Take the under (8*). |
|||||||
04-09-24 | Astros v. Royals +114 | 3-4 | Win | 114 | 11 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on Kansas City over Houston at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Astros rallied to win the final two games of their four-game series in Texas but now find themselves at a disadvantage travelling to face a rested and rolling Royals club on Tuesday in Kansas City. I like the way the starting pitching matchup sets up for Kansas City in the series opener as it sends Cole Ragans to the hill against Cristian Javier. These two pitchers are on different career trajectories right now with Javier heading in the wrong direction and Ragans quickly ascending to elite status. Javier did pitch well in his most recent outing but that only serves to artificially inflate his price here. Ragans recorded a 2.49 FIP in 70+ innings after joining the Royals last season and has picked up right where he left off in 2024, posting a 2.91 FIP and 0.89 WHIP in two starts. Take Kansas City (8*). |
|||||||
04-09-24 | Marlins +169 v. Yankees | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami over New York at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Marlins were shut out on Monday failing to build off Sunday's first victory of the season. I do think that lopsided result gives Yankees bettors a false sense of security with Carlos Rodon taking the ball for the third time this season on Tuesday. His 2.79 ERA so far this season doesn't tell the whole story as he has recorded a lofty 5.98 FIP in 9 2/3 innings of work. Likewise, Marlins starter A.J. Puk had a fine Spring but has been lit up in his first two regular season outings. I look for him to bounce back here and we'll note that he's not the one being priced as a big favorite. For his big league career, Puk has posted a solid 3.67 FIP. I think better days are ahead for the left-hander. Take Miami (8*). |
|||||||
04-09-24 | Orioles -136 v. Red Sox | 7-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Baltimore over Boston at 2:10 pm et on Tuesday. We're being offered a decent price to back the Orioles on Tuesday as they look to cool off the red hot Red Sox. Corbin Burnes has been terrific in two starts with his new team, logging a 1.95 FIP and 0.86 WHIP. Red Sox starter Brayan Bello certainly isn't as bad as he's shown in the early going this season but a FIP north of six can't be ignored, especially as he prepares to face a loaded Orioles lineup. I think there's trouble brewing for the Sox in their home opener on Tuesday. Take Baltimore (8*). |
|||||||
04-08-24 | Rays -135 v. Angels | Top | 1-7 | Loss | -135 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
American League Game of the Month. My selection is on Tampa Bay over Los Angeles at 9:35 pm et on Monday. We'll get another shot at fading Angels starter Tyler Anderson at a reasonable price after he inexplicably tossed seven shutout innings against the Marlins in his 2024 debut. Los Angeles is coming off a series loss at home against another (weaker) A.L. East opponent in the Red Sox. The Rays come in off a series win in Colorado and will look to keep it rolling with Zach Eflin on the mound on Monday. He shook off a rough debut against the Blue Jays by holding the Rangers to just one earned run over 6 1/3 innings last time out. I would consider Anderson one of the more overpaid starters in baseball right now and will gladly fade him in this matchup. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
|||||||
04-08-24 | Marlins +145 v. Yankees | 0-7 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami over New York at 6:05 pm et on Monday. The Marlins finally picked up their first victory of the season on Sunday and I look for them to notch a second straight win on Monday as they hand the ball to Jesus Luzardo against Nestor Cortes of the Yankees. I'm not going to knock Luzardo for a shaky outing against the Angels last time out. His FIP north of four is going to come down in time while he has recorded a sub-1.00 FIP through his first two starts. Cortes' first couple of starts haven't been all that encouraging for a pitcher approaching 30 years of age that has dealt with shoulder concerns. Through two outings, Cortes owns a 4.30 FIP and 1.70 WHIP. Coming off three straight series victories to open the campaign, I look for the Yankees to get tripped up here. Take Miami (8*). |
|||||||
04-07-24 | Padres v. Giants -1.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
N.L. West Game of the Month. My selection is on San Francisco -1.5 runs over San Diego at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. Padres starter Matt Waldron's stay at the big league level could prove to be short-lived but we want to fade him while we can as he makes his second start of the campaign in San Francisco on Sunday. Waldron actually looked pretty good in the Spring, earning a role in the starting rotation. His first regular season outing didn't go so well as he allowed nine hits and four earned runs in just four innings of work. The Giants will get their second look at the knuckle-baller after facing him in late September last year. Waldron recorded a 5.46 FIP in 41 1/3 big league innings last season. San Francisco will hand the ball to Logan Webb as he looks to shake off a rough outing in Los Angeles earlier this week. I'm not overly concerned by that shaky performance as Webb was terrific in his regular season debut (against these same Padres). The Giants ace owns a career 2.56 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 10 starts against San Diego. Take San Francisco -1.5 runs (10*). |
|||||||
04-07-24 | Phillies v. Nationals UNDER 8.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Washington at 1:35 pm et on Sunday. While it features back-of-the-rotation starters, I do think we'll see a pretty good pitching matchup on Sunday afternoon in Washington. Christopher Sanchez had a miserable Spring but shook that off to toss five quality innings in his regular season debut, striking out eight while allowing just two earned runs against the Reds. He was serviceable last year, recording a 3.99 FIP and 1.05 WHIP in just shy of 100 innings pitched. Mackenzie Gore will counter for Washington. He was shaky in his first regular season outing. There are going to be plenty of ups and downs with Gore but the potential is there to rise to the occasion in spots like this one where the Nationals are trying to avoid the sweep. The Phillies aren't exactly tearing the cover off the baseball right now having scored more than four runs just twice in seven games to date. Take the under (8*). |
|||||||
04-06-24 | Mets v. Reds -115 | 6-9 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cincinnati over New York at 4:10 pm et on Saturday. The Mets took the opener of this series yesterday but that was their game to get in my opinion as they had veteran Jose Quintana going against Hunter Greene. On Saturday, the starting pitching advantage flips back to the Reds as they send Nick Martinez to the hill against Luis Severino. I think Severino might just be done as a productive big league starter. Starting pitchers at his age don't tend to enjoy sudden turnarounds and he showed us nothing in his regular season debut, getting lit up for 11 hits and six earned runs in just five innings of work against Milwaukee. The Mets took a flyer on the veteran right-hander but we won't do the same. Martinez has showed some promise in a starting role over the course of his career. He didn't have his best stuff in his regular season debut with the Reds but after a fine Spring, I'm willing to give him a pass. Look for the Reds bats to wake from their slumber on Saturday. Take Cincinnati (8*). |
|||||||
04-06-24 | Dodgers v. Cubs UNDER 8 | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Chicago at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. We saw a wild, high-scoring affair between these two teams yesterday afternoon at Wrigley Field but I look for a different story to unfold on Saturday. Yoshinobu Yamomoto had a rough Spring and followed it up with a shaky regular season debut for the Dodgers. However, his second start went a lot better and I look for him to build off of that performance here. Note that Yamamoto actually dropped his FIP all the way to 1.85 on the campaign following his most recent effort. His opposing starter on Saturday will be Jordan Wicks. I'm relatively high on the Cubs left-hander who dazzled in the Spring and while he didn't have his best stuff in his first regular season outing, he did hang in there for four innings allowing only two earned runs, logging a 2.43 FIP. Look for runs to come at a premium at Wrigley on Saturday. Take the under (8*). |
|||||||
04-05-24 | Mariners v. Brewers UNDER 8 | 5-6 | Loss | -114 | 10 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Seattle and Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Friday. We saw what we needed to from Mariners starter Logan Gilbert in his regular season debut as he was dominant over seven innings against the Guardians. Now he faces a similarly tricky lineup in Milwaukee but I'm confident he'll be up to the task. Brewers starter Freddy Peralta has quite simply been the picture of consistency when healthy and he shook off a rough Spring to toss six razor sharp innings in his first start of the campaign. The Mariners bats have yet to wake up from their Spring slumber, already held to one run or less on three different occasions this season. Take the under (8*). |
|||||||
04-05-24 | Diamondbacks v. Braves OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 23 h 34 m | Show |
National League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and Atlanta at 7:20 pm et on Friday. I love the way this one sets up as a relatively high-scoring game in Atlanta on Friday. Tommy Henry will get the start for the visiting Diamondbacks. Even the most casual observer could see that there was trouble brewing for Henry last season. He had an awful Spring and followed it up with an ugly regular season debut last week. Now he draws an extremely difficult test in the Braves home opener on Friday. Spencer Strider was lights out in the Spring but his first regular season outing was about what we've come to expect from the Braves ace - plenty of strikeouts (eight) but also a couple of runs allowed. I do think the D'Backs bats can get to him here, even if he does end up hanging another crooked number of K's on the board. The potential for a 6-5 type of game is there in my opinion. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
04-04-24 | White Sox v. Royals -1.5 | 1-10 | Win | 126 | 22 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on Kansas City -1.5 runs over Chicago at 7:40 pm et on Thursday. The Royals let the Orioles off the hook last night, blowing a late 3-0 lead in a 4-3 defeat. I don't expect them to suffer the same fate as they return home to host the White Sox on Thursday. Chicago is coming off a rain-out against the Braves yesterday. Mike Soroka is expected to get the start for the Sox. He was roughed up early in his season debut before settling down. So far so good on the injury front for the right-hander. I do think expectations should be tempered as he is by no means a number two starter for most teams in baseball. Seth Lugo is in his sweet spot as a home favorite, noting his teams have gone 16-5 (+7.6 net games) in his last 21 starts in that role. The White Sox check in a woeful 58-81 (-30.8 net games) in their last 139 contests following a victory, as is the case here. Take Kansas City -1.5 runs (8*). |
|||||||
04-03-24 | Giants v. Dodgers UNDER 8.5 | 4-5 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Francisco and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. I'm anticipating a low-scoring affair as the Giants and Dodgers do battle in the third game of their series on Wednesday. Kyle Harrison is a pitcher I'm willing to get behind as he comes off a a fine rookie campaign in which he proved he has the stuff to deceive hitters at the big league level. Tyler Glasnow is of course already an elite starter that earned a big contract from the Dodgers in the offseason and has been terrific through two starts this season (following a lights out Spring), allowing only nine of 42 batters he has faced to reach base. Expect runs to come at a premium in this one. Take the under (8*). |
|||||||
04-03-24 | Pirates -151 v. Nationals | 3-5 | Loss | -151 | 11 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on Pittsburgh over Washington at 6:45 pm et on Wednesday. This is a pitching mismatch that isn't being properly reflected in the price. Mitch Keller is a serviceable starter for the Pirates. He will be looking to bounce back following a shaky first start of the regular season, however. I'm confident he'll rebound, noting he recorded a 3.80 FIP and 1.25 WHIP last season (and has posted a sub-4.00 FIP in three consecutive years). Trevor Williams, a former Pirate, will counter for Washington. He was awful for the Nationals last season and even worse in the Spring. Starters of this age and quality don't tend to enjoy sudden rebounds. Look for the Buccos bats to stay hot. Take Pittsburgh (8*). |
|||||||
04-03-24 | Reds v. Phillies UNDER 7.5 | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 19 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cincinnati and Philadelphia at 1:05 pm et on Wednesday. It's not too often we can talk about a potential pitcher's duel in a game involving these two teams but I do think that is the case on Wednesday. Frankie Montas had a rough Spring as he works his way back from injuries. He shrugged it off in his regular season debut, however, as he allowed just four of 21 batters to reach base over six shutout frames against the Nationals. Montas still has terrific stuff, his health is the only real concern and that's not a big issue at the moment. Zack Wheeler will counter for Philadelphia. He was also terrific in his regular season debut, allowing only five of 23 batters to reach base in six shutout innings. Wheeler was also lights out in the Spring, recording a 1.26 ERA and 0.63 WHIP in 14 1/3 innings of work. Take the under (8*). |
|||||||
04-03-24 | Angels v. Marlins -114 | 10-2 | Loss | -114 | 7 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami over Los Angeles at 1:10 pm et on Wednesday. While most have already written off the the Marlins it's important to remember we're less than a week into the season. I like the matchup here as they look to tee off on Patrick Sandoval. The left-hander hasn't been good in his recent years, wasn't good in the Spring and was downright awful in his regular season debut. The opportunities have been there for the Marlins offensively, they simply haven't been able to cash in. Today they will. A.J. Puk won't be asked to do too much for Miami in a starter's role here. It's not as if the Angels bats are setting the world on fire, producing just three runs in last night's victory. Take Miami (8*). |
|||||||
04-02-24 | Giants +130 v. Dodgers | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Francisco over Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Giants got drummed 8-3 in the opener of this series last night. I look for them to bounce back from consecutive losses as they send steady right-hander Logan Webb to the hill on Tuesday. Webb comes off three consecutive seasons in which he recorded an xERA of 3.31 or better including a 2.98 mark last year. The Dodgers haven't settled on a starter for Tuesday's game as of yet. We'll back the Giants as an 'action' bet here as Los Angeles isn't brimming with favorable options for the slot. Take San Francisco (8*). |
|||||||
04-02-24 | Yankees v. Diamondbacks -111 | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 14 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona over New York at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday. Nestor Cortes was awful in exhibition action and struggled in his regular season debut as well. You have to wonder whether his shoulder issues from a year ago are still a factor. The Yankees are undoubtedly rolling out of the gate but I expect the Diamondbacks to bounce back from last night's series-opening loss. Arizona has been hot at the dish early in the campaign as well and should get to Cortes early and often. Zac Gallen looked good in his first start of the campaign, allowing just one earned run over five innings. He faces a much tougher test in his second outing but it's worth noting that he did pitch six shutout frames against New York last September. Take Arizona (8*). |
|||||||
04-02-24 | Rockies v. Cubs -1.5 | 2-12 | Win | 115 | 12 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago -1.5 runs over Colorado at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday. Kyle Freeland remains in the Rockies rotation for another year and if his season debut was any indication, it's likely to be another long one for the veteran left-hander. Freeland has had previous success in two career starts at Wrigley Field. Those came prior to 2019 though. We can expect the Cubs bats to tee off on the soft-tossing southpaw on Tuesday. Javier Assad is a typical back-of-the-rotation starter but not a bad one by any means. He'll give Chicago 5-6 effective innings against a stuttering Rockies offense on Tuesday. I'm not interested in paying near -200 prices this early in the season but will lay the extra run for a plus-money return with the Cubbies here. Take Chicago -1.5 runs (8*). |
|||||||
04-02-24 | Angels v. Marlins -140 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -140 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
Interleague Game of the Month. My selection is on Miami over Los Angeles at 6:40 pm et on Tuesday. This is one of the bigger starting pitching mismatches on Tuesday's board but it isn't being priced like it. Tyler Anderson will start the year in the Angels rotation. That's only because he earned a big contract following consecutive solid campaigns in 2021 and 2022. He wasn't good in 2023 and I don't expect him to turn back the clock in 2024. The Marlins will hand the ball to their ace Jesus Luzardo. His ho-hum season debut against the Pirates (a game the Marlins lost) keeps the price in a reasonable range here. I expect Luzardo to make the leap to elite status this season, if he's not already there, but it will take some time for the betting marketplace to come around (and for the Marlins bats to start producing). I like the spot off last night's loss. Take Miami (10*). |
|||||||
04-02-24 | Twins v. Brewers UNDER 8.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 19 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Milwaukee at 4:10 pm et on Tuesday. I think we're going to see a better pitching matchup than most are expecting as these interleague foes square off on Tuesday afternoon in Milwaukee. Louie Varland has always had potential but ended up getting demoted last season after coming down with case of the yips and proving unable to keep the ball in the park. He did fare better after getting called back up in September and there's reason to believe he can battle for a spot in the Twins starting rotation this season. Jake Junis is in a similar boat potential-wise. He simply hasn't been able to put it all together but has certainly shown flashes of brilliance in time spent with the Royals and Giants. While the Twins do have some terrific hitters sprinkled in their starting nine, they're not going to be an offensive juggernaut, as we saw in their first series as they plated just nine runs in three games against the Royals. Take the under (8*). |
|||||||
04-01-24 | Giants v. Dodgers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
N.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between San Francisco and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Monday. The Giants are coming off an exceptionally high-scoring series in San Diego. Meanwhile, the Dodgers saw plenty of runs in their home series against the Cardinals. Here, I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair as these N.L. West rivals match up for the first time in 2024. Keaton Winn will take the ball for the visiting Giants. He's probably better than a back-of-the-rotation starter after an up-and-down 2023 campaign. Winn saw limited action in the Spring but did record a 3.18 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. He's a ground ball pitcher with an effective splitter that should keep the Dodgers mighty bats guessing on Monday. Veteran James Paxton joins the Dodgers after spending last season with the Red Sox. He should benefit from moving over to the National League (and making most of his starts at Dodger Stadium) at this stage of his career. Paxton worked seven innings in the Spring, logging a 5.14 ERA but a solid 1.14 WHIP. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
04-01-24 | Braves -1.5 v. White Sox | 9-0 | Win | 100 | 17 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta -1.5 runs over Chicago at 2:10 pm et on Monday. This is a smash spot for the Braves off Sunday's loss in Philadelphia. Atlanta sends Charlie Morton to the mound against Chris Flexen of the White Sox. Morton had a terrific Spring posting a sub-3.00 ERA after turning back the clock to the tune of a 3.64 ERA in 2023. Flexen will be pitching for his fourth big league club after stints with the Mets, Mariners and Rockies. Things haven't gone particularly well for the right-hander in any of his previous stops. For his career he owns a 4.97 FIP and 1.49 WHIP in just shy of 500 innings of work. Take Atlanta -1.5 runs (8*). |
|||||||
03-31-24 | Red Sox +134 v. Mariners | 5-1 | Win | 134 | 8 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston over Seattle at 4:10 pm et on Sunday. The Mariners walked the Red Sox off on a Julio Rodriguez extra innings RBI single on Saturday, notching their second straight win in this series. I look for Boston to bounce back behind an underrated starter in Garrett Whitlock on Sunday. Whitlock had a fantastic Spring following a so-so 2023 campaign. While Whitlock did record an ERA north of five last season he was certainly better than that with a FIP nearly a full run lower. Bryce Miller will get the start for Seattle. He's considered among the 'big three' of young arms in the Mariners starting rotation but I do think he's a notch below both George Kirby and Logan Gilbert. Seattle continues to have a tough time manufacturing offense and at this price, I'm willing to fade it on Sunday. Take Boston (8*). |
|||||||
03-30-24 | Yankees v. Astros -128 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -128 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Houston over New York at 7:15 pm et on Saturday. The Astros have dropped the first two games of this series but I look for them to bounce back behind impressive young starter Hunter Brown on Saturday. Not that Spring Training numbers ultimately mean all that much but Brown was electric during exhibition play, posting a 2.12 ERA and 1.18 WHIP with 17 strikeouts in 17 innings of work. The long season ultimately wore on Brown in 2023 but I look for a big sophomore campaign for the right-hander and this is a big stage for him in his season debut, facing the mighty Yankees off consecutive losses. New York will hand the ball to newly-acquired Marcus Stroman. He's coming off an All-Star campaign and makes the jump back to the American League. Note that Stroman's teams are just 11-19 (-3.2 net games) in his last 30 starts as an underdog priced between +125 and +175 including a 2-6 (-2.9 net games) record in that situation over the last three seasons. Take Houston (10*). |
|||||||
03-29-24 | Blue Jays v. Rays -113 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 22 h 33 m | Show |
A.L. East Game of the Month. My selection is on Tampa Bay over Toronto at 6:50 pm et on Friday. The Blue Jays smashed the Rays on Opening Day but I look for Tampa Bay to return the favor on Friday. Jays starter Chris Bassitt didn't have a great Spring, allowing 28-of-93 batters he faced to reach base. Last season, he recorded a middling 4.28 FIP and 1.18 WHIP. Aaron Civale will counter for Tampa Bay. He posted an ERA north of five during the Spring but did allow only 13-of-47 batters he faced to reach base. Civale saw his home runs allowed take a jump in 2023 but the rest of his numbers were fine. He has recorded a 3.57 FIP or better in each of the last three seasons. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
|||||||
11-01-23 | Rangers v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8.5 | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 13 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Texas and Arizona at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a wild, high-scoring game between these two teams last night as the Rangers held on for an 11-7 victory to push the Diamondbacks to the brink of elimination. This Game 5 matchup will feature a rematch of Game 1 of the series with Nathan Eovaldi going up against Zac Gallen. While Eovaldi has been a good luck charm for the Rangers in these playoffs (they've yet to lose with him on the mound), Gallen has struggled. I do think we'll see the latter rise to the occasion in this must-win game at home though, noting that his strikeout-to-walk ratio nearly doubles at home compared to on the road and he has recorded a sparkling 2.47 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 16 outings at Chase Field this season. There's been no real difference whether Eovaldi has been on the road or at home this season and while he didn't have his best stuff in the series-opener, he still struck out eight while walking only one in 4 2/3 innings of work. The bullpens were asked to take on a lot of mop-up duty last night. Here, I look for both teams relief corps' to lock right back in as this figures to be a tightly-contested affair. Take the under (8*). |
|||||||
10-31-23 | Rangers v. Diamondbacks -105 | Top | 11-7 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
World Series Game of the Year. My selection is on Arizona over Texas at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Rangers gained the upper hand in this series last night as they jumped all over Diamondbacks rookie starter Brandon Pfaadt early and cruised to a 3-1 victory. I look for Arizona to answer back on Tuesday in what sets up as a battle of the bullpens. Andrew Heaney will get the start for the visiting Rangers but isn't likely to be given a long leash. He has pitched just 2 1/3 innings in the last two rounds of the playoffs, allowing six of the 13 batters he has faced to reach base. On the season, Heaney owns a very pedestrian 4.66 FIP and 1.38 WHIP. Reliever Joe Mantiply will counter for Arizona. Again, we can expect to see only an inning or so from the left-hander. I liked the way the D'Backs managed their bullpen in last night's defeat as they kept key arms like Ryan Thompson, Kevin Ginkel and closer Paul Sewald fresh for Game 4 on Tuesday. As expected in a tight game playing with the lead, the Rangers used both setup man Aroldis Chapman and closer Jose Leclerc. The Rangers already accomplished their goal of at least getting this series back to Texas for a Game 6. Now the pressure is squarely on Arizona as it can ill afford to go down 3-1 against a team as good as Texas. The D'Backs have proven resilient throughout these playoffs and I look for them to answer the bell once again on Tuesday. Take Arizona (10*). |
|||||||
10-30-23 | Rangers -104 v. Diamondbacks | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 23 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on Texas over Arizona at 8:05 pm et on Monday. It wasn't all that surprising to see the Diamondbacks rebound following their disheartening loss in Game 1 of this series. After all, the Snakes have been incredibly resilient throughout these playoffs and didn't want to go down the path of needing to rally from an 0-2 series deficit again the way they did last round. Here, I think it's advantage Rangers as the series shifts to Arizona for Game 3. Veteran Max Scherzer hasn't pitched particularly well in his two playoff starts this year, but he was certainly 'good enough' in the fifth and deciding game against the Astros last round as Texas rolled to an 11-4 victory. Scherzer has absolutely manhandled the current Diamondbacks roster, holding them to a collective 16-for-103 (.155) with 39 strikeouts and eight walks. Meanwhile, D'Backs rookie Brandon Pfaadt has impressed in his four playoff starts but he faces a tall task here as the current Rangers roster torched the right-hander in a regular season matchup, hitting a combined 9-for-19 (.474) with four home runs and only three strikeouts. Take Texas (8*). |
|||||||
10-24-23 | Diamondbacks +158 v. Phillies | 4-2 | Win | 158 | 14 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona over Philadelphia at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. The pressure rests squarely on the shoulders of the Phillies in Game 7 on Tuesday after they squandered an opportunity to close out this series at home yesterday. Most expected the Diamondbacks to go off quietly into that good night after dropping Games 1 and 2 in this series. Instead, Arizona answered back with consecutive wins of its own at home before dropping Game 5. Now this youthful team has all the confidence in the world as it looks to stun Philadelphia in front of its home faithful on Tuesday. Rookie Brandon Pfaadt will take the ball for the D'Backs. He displayed some nerves in his first career playoff start in Milwaukee but that seems like ages ago now as he's bounced back by silencing both the Dodgers and these same Phillies in his last two outings. In those two starts, Pfaadt yielded just four hits and no walks while striking out 11 in 10 shutout innings. Current Phillies hitters are a combined 2-for-18 off of the rookie right-hander. Ranger Suarez will counter for Philadelphia. Like Pfaadt, he's been sharp over his last two starts, three if you include a brief outing against the Braves in the NLDS. I don't believe he has the same dominant stuff or extra gear to reach back to compared to Pfaadt, however. What you see is what you get with the veteran left-hander. In 125 innings of work this season he owns a rather pedestrian 3.90 FIP and 1.42 WHIP. If we've learned one thing in these playoffs it's to expect the unexpected and what could be more unexpected than a Rangers-Diamondbacks World Series matchup? Take Arizona (8*). |
|||||||
10-23-23 | Rangers +114 v. Astros | Top | 11-4 | Win | 114 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
ALCS Game of the Year. My selection is on Texas over Houston at 8:05 pm et on Monday. Bettors will likely be quick to back the Astros to bounce back following last night's blown opportunity to close out this series at home, especially given we're going to see the same pitching matchup from Game 3 - a contest Houston led virtually wire-to-wire in an 8-5 victory. I like Rangers veteran and future Hall-of-Famer Max Scherzer's chances of bouncing back here, however, after he pitched for the first time in over a month in Game 3. Scherzer said after the game that he had more in the tank but agreed with manager Bruce Bochy's decision to lift him from the game after four innings with the Rangers trailing 5-0. While Mad Max got off to a shaky start in that contest, he did settle down and strike out the final two batters he faced and threw 42-of-63 pitches for strikes. We know the moment isn't too big for Scherzer as he's been in similar situations before. Also note that his teams have gone a perfect 6-0 in his last six starts here at Minute Maid Park, including 2-0 in postseason play (as a member of the Nationals in 2019). Cristian Javier will counter for Houston. He's posted tremendous postseason stats during his career and has successfully bounced back in these playoffs following a rough regular season. With that being said, I don't think there's any intimidation factor at play here as the Rangers will be seeing Javier for the eighth time since the start of last season. He didn't last beyond the sixth inning in any of those previous seven outings against Texas. In fact, he's failed to make it through the sixth inning in any of his last four starts against the Rangers. Texas is a perfect 7-0 on the road in these playoffs but it will be all for not if it can't secure a Game 7 victory on Monday night. I expect the Rangers to rise to the occasion once again. Take Texas (10*). |
|||||||
10-20-23 | Phillies -124 v. Diamondbacks | 5-6 | Loss | -124 | 12 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia over Arizona at 8:05 pm et on Friday. The Phillies offense dried up in last night's 2-1 defeat as they let the Diamondbacks back into the series. I expect Arizona's success to be short-lived, however, as it looks to even the series at two games apiece on Friday. Cristopher Sanchez will take the ball for the Phillies in Game 4. I wouldn't put too much stock into his presence at the start of this game as he's likely to be on a short leash having not pitched since September 30th and not started a game since September 27th. He's held his own on the road this season, holding opposing batters to a .207 average while giving up only five extra-base hits in 92 plate appearances. Joe Mantiply will get the start for the D'Backs in what amounts to a bullpen game. I think there's a good chance the Phillies jump all over the left-hander, noting their current hitters are a combined 14-for-31 including six extra-base hits against him. Interestingly, Bryce Harper is 0-for-4 against Mantiply but I'd rather bet on Harper noting he's been one of the Phillies hottest hitters in these playoffs, batting .357 with four home runs. He was 0-for-2 last night. The last time he went hitless in a playoff game (and only previous time he did so this October) he responded by going 2-for-2 in Game 1 of the NLDS in Atlanta, helping Philadelphia to a 3-0 victory. Take Philadelphia (8*). |
|||||||
10-19-23 | Phillies v. Diamondbacks +117 | 1-2 | Win | 117 | 10 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona over Philadelphia at 5:05 pm et on Thursday. For the Phillies, picking up two more wins and moving on to the World Series for a second straight year seems like only a formality at this point. With that being said, I don't think the Diamondbacks will go away quietly as the series shifts to Arizona for Game 3 on Thursday afternoon. Ranger Suarez will get the start for Philadelphia. He pitched well in two NLDS starts against Atlanta although not much was asked of him as he faced just 13 and 18 batters in those two contests. The D'Backs have had some success against the left-hander, going a combined 20-for-70 (.270) against him with only 15 strikeouts and 11 walks. Brandon Pfaadt will counter for Arizona. The rookie struggled in his playoff debut against the Brewers (in Milwaukee) but rebounded in his next outing against the Dodgers (at home), throwing 30-of-42 pitches for strikes and allowing just two hits over 4 1/3 shutout innings. Note that the Phillies are just 6-12 this season after allowing four runs or less in four consecutive games, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 1.7 runs in that situation. Take Arizona (8*). |
|||||||
10-18-23 | Astros +121 v. Rangers | 8-5 | Win | 121 | 24 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston over Texas at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. I'm not entirely sure why the Rangers are messing with their starting rotation and inserting Max Scherzer on Wednesday when they've clearly got a good thing going in that regard. The Rangers are saying all the right things and we know Scherzer is the ultimate competitor so he wants to be out there but he's only thrown a 65 or 70-pitch bullpen session ahead of this critical start and I won't be surprised if the Astros jump all over him, just as they did back on September 6th, right here in Texas (Houston scored seven earned runs off of Scherzer in just three innings). Cristian Javier will get the call for the Astros. He improved on his terrific career postseason numbers with a masterful outing against the Twins in the ALDS. Houston has to feel as if it has the right guy on the hill to get it back into this series noting that it has gone 7-3 in Javier's 10 previous starts against Texas. Current Rangers hitters are just 30-for-123 (.244) off of Javier with only 12 extra-base hits. Take Houston (8*). |
|||||||
10-17-23 | Diamondbacks +149 v. Phillies | Top | 0-10 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
NLCS Game of the Year. My selection is on Arizona over Philadelphia at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Phillies took the opener of this series by a 5-3 score last night, notching their fifth consecutive victory at home in these playoffs. I look for that streak to come to an end on Tuesday, however, as the Diamondbacks hand the ball to Merrill Kelly against Aaron Nola of the Phillies. Kelly should have a live arm having not pitched since October 7th, when he helped the D'Backs to an 11-2 rout of the Dodgers in Los Angeles. Since getting rocked for seven earned runs against the Mets on September 14th, Kelly has allowed just four earned runs in four starts, covering a span of 25 innings of work. Note that Arizona has won 10 of Kelly's 16 road starts this season. Aaron Nola recorded nine strikeouts against Atlanta last time out and while most bettors will look at that as a positive, high strikeout totals have been problematic for Nola in his next start this season. After striking out nine or more batters, Nola has gone on to allow 5, 6, 0, 4 and 7 earned runs in his next outing with the Phillies going 0-5 in those contests. The D'Backs should be happy to be facing Nola noting that he owns a 7.67 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in five career starts against them. While Arizona has now dropped four straight meetings with the Phillies, that actually sets up favorably here as it has gone 7-1 when seeking quadruple-revenge against an opponent over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by 2.0 runs on average in that situation. Take Arizona (10*). |
|||||||
10-16-23 | Rangers v. Astros -118 | 5-4 | Loss | -118 | 10 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston over Texas at 4:35 pm et on Monday. The Rangers took the opener of this series last night, improving to an incredible 6-0 in the postseason. I look for the Astros to answer back on Monday as they send Framber Valdez to the hill against Nathan Eovaldi of the Rangers. It's worth noting that Texas hasn't won consecutive games against Houston since back in May of 2021. Eovaldi has struggled mightily against current Astros hitters, allowing 45 hits in 145 at-bats (.310). That includes a whopping 22 extra-base hits, not to mention a modest 27:16 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Framber Valdez hasn't pitched particularly well lately but I like his chances of rising to the occasion in this critical matchup. He owns a 3.64 ERA and 1.10 WHIP at home this season and will be happy to be pitching in the daytime, having logged a sparkling 1.32 ERA and 0.85 WHIP in five afternoon starts this year. While the Rangers were able to close out last night's game, they've blown 16 saves while converting only 13 on the road this season. Take Houston (8*). |
|||||||
10-11-23 | Dodgers -140 v. Diamondbacks | 2-4 | Loss | -140 | 25 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over Arizona at 9:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Dodgers couldn't get their offense going at all in Games 1 and 2 in Los Angeles. With this game projected to be much higher-scoring, I look for L.A. to find its way back into the series with a victory. Lance Lynn will be tasked with stopping the bleeding for the Dodgers. I believe he's the right guy on the mound in this moment, noting that he has held current Diamondbacks hitters to a combined 10-for-50 at the plate. It's a much different story for D'Backs rookie starter Brandon Pfaadt. He was shaky in his postseason debut in Milwaukee. Now he goes up against a Dodgers club that has clocked him to the tune of 16-for-42 (.381) at the dish with eight extra-base hits. Pfaadt won't have a very long leash in this game. Note that Los Angeles is 18-4 when seeking revenge for a home loss against an opponent this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.8 runs in that situation. Arizona checks in 15-24 when coming off a victory by two runs or less this season, outscored by 1.1 runs on average in that spot. Take Los Angeles (8*). |
|||||||
10-10-23 | Astros v. Twins UNDER 8 | Top | 9-1 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
ALDS Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Minnesota at 4:05 pm et on Tuesday. I really like the way the 'under' sets up in Game 3 of this series on Tuesday afternoon in Minnesota. Astros starter Cristian Javier had a tough regular season as a whole. Big things were expected of the young right-hander after a phenomenal 2022 campaign but he struggled for the most part. The good news is, he did close out the campaign in solid form, posting a 2.30 ERA and 1.02 WHIP over his last three starts. Also note that Javier, while young, has been here before, logging a 4-1 record to go along with a 2.20 ERA with 38 strikeouts in 14 career playoff appearances. Twins starter Sonny Gray has recorded a 2.67 ERA and 1.15 WHIP this season - Cy Young Award-caliber numbers for the underrated right-hander. Gray tossed five shutout innings against the Blue Jays in the Wild Card round. For his career, Gray owns a 2.39 ERA with 24 strikeouts in five postseason appearances. Both bullpens are in solid form and of course the off day on Monday helps their cause. Also note that Bill Miller will be the umpire on Tuesday and he has seen the 'under' cash at a 440-363 clip over the course of his career, including a 17-12 mark this season. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
10-09-23 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -149 | 4-2 | Loss | -149 | 13 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over Arizona at 9:05 pm et on Monday. The Diamondbacks are the Cinderella story of this year’s playoffs but I do expect their three-game winning streak to come to an end on Monday. Zac Gallen will take the ball for Arizona. While he’s had another terrific season he’s up against a Dodgers lineup that is familiar with his stuff. A whopping seven different Los Angeles hitters have homered off of Gallen. Rookie Bobby Miller will counter for the Dodgers. I like the fact that he gets to make his playoff debut at home. A lot is expected of the Dodgers young pitchers with the likes of Julio Urias and Tony Gonsolin sidelined and I look for Miller to rise to the occasion with L.A. coming off a loss in Game 1. Take Los Angeles (8*). |
|||||||
10-09-23 | Phillies v. Braves -149 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta over Philadelphia at 6:05 pm et on Monday. The Braves dropped the opener of this series in shutout fashion on Saturday but that sets them up well to rebound in Game 2 in Atlanta on Monday. Note that Atlanta has gone 70-26 all-time with Max Fried on the mound as a favorite, as is the case here. The Braves are also 47-21 when coming off consecutive losses against an opponent, which is also the situation here (Atlanta has dropped its last two meetings with Philadelphia), over the last three seasons. Meanwhile, the Phillies check in just 6-11 when coming off four or more consecutive games in which they allowed four runs or less this season, outscored by an average margin of 1.9 runs in that situation. We'll also favor the Braves noting that Phillies starter Zack Wheeler has posted a 7-11 team record in 18 previous nighttime starts this season. Take Atlanta (8*). |
|||||||
10-07-23 | Phillies v. Braves -195 | 3-0 | Loss | -195 | 8 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta over Philadelphia at 6:05 pm et on Saturday. I expect plenty of runs on the board as the Braves send Spencer Strider to the hill against Ranger Suarez in Game 1 of this NLDS on Saturday. Current Braves hitters have actually been held at bay to a certain extent by Suarez, combining to go 27-for-113 (.239). However, four different Braves have homered off of the left-hander previously and I believe a number of bats in their lineup are in line for some positive regression here. Note that Michael Harris in particular is just 1-for-13 against Suarez but hasn't really been getting fooled, striking out only twice. That's a common theme. As a whole, the Braves have struck out just 23 times while walking 16 times against Suarez. Compare that to Spencer Strider against current Phillies hitters. Strider has held the Philadelphia bats to a 25-for-146 (.171) ledger at the dish, racking up a whopping 60 strikeouts while walking only 10. With that said, four different Phillies hitters have also homered off of Strider. If the Braves have an achilles heel it's their bullpen as they've blown 13 saves at home this season and rate out poorly in terms of hits and home runs allowed. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is a long-term 151-111 with the Phillies coming off a win over a division opponent in which they allowed one run or less, leading to an average total of 9.5 runs in that situation while the 'over' is 21-8 with the Braves at home seeking revenge for a one-run loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 10.6 runs. Take the over (8*). |
|||||||
10-07-23 | Phillies v. Braves OVER 8.5 | 3-0 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Philadelphia at 6:05 pm et on Saturday. I expect plenty of runs on the board as the Braves send Spencer Strider to the hill against Ranger Suarez in Game 1 of this NLDS on Saturday. Current Braves hitters have actually been held at bay to a certain extent by Suarez, combining to go 27-for-113 (.239). However, four different Braves have homered off of the left-hander previously and I believe a number of bats in their lineup are in line for some positive regression here. Note that Michael Harris in particular is just 1-for-13 against Suarez but hasn't really been getting fooled, striking out only twice. That's a common theme. As a whole, the Braves have struck out just 23 times while walking 16 times against Suarez. Compare that to Spencer Strider against current Phillies hitters. Strider has held the Philadelphia bats to a 25-for-146 (.171) ledger at the dish, racking up a whopping 60 strikeouts while walking only 10. With that said, four different Phillies hitters have also homered off of Strider. If the Braves have an achilles heel it's their bullpen as they've blown 13 saves at home this season and rate out poorly in terms of hits and home runs allowed. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is a long-term 151-111 with the Phillies coming off a win over a division opponent in which they allowed one run or less, leading to an average total of 9.5 runs in that situation while the 'over' is 21-8 with the Braves at home seeking revenge for a one-run loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 10.6 runs. Take the over (8*). |
|||||||
10-04-23 | Rangers v. Rays OVER 8 | 7-1 | Push | 0 | 7 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Texas and Tampa Bay at 3:05 pm et on Wednesday. Nathan Eovaldi will get the start for the Rangers on Wednesday as they try to eliminate the Rays and advance to an ALDS matchup with the Orioles. The good news is, Texas' scoring floor has been fairly solid in this particular matchup this season as it has produced at least three runs in seven previous matchups, averaging 4.4 runs per game along the way. I do think the Rays hold up their end of the bargain offensively on Wednesday as well, though, following yesterday's embarrassing shutout loss. Eovaldi was a mess down the stretch in the regular season. He returned from injury at the beginning of September and proceeded to allow 21 earned runs in six starts, spanning 20 1/3 innings of work. The 'over' went 4-1-1 in those six contests. Zach Eflin will counter for Tampa Bay. He showed signs of wearing down in September, lasting just five innings in four of his last five starts, allowing 12 earned runs in 27 innings over that stretch. Neither bullpen impresses me all that much, noting that the two teams have combined to blow 56 saves this season with both getting bitten by the long ball on a consistent basis. Take the over (8*). |
|||||||
10-03-23 | Rangers v. Rays -146 | 4-0 | Loss | -146 | 18 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay over Texas at 3:05 pm et on Tuesday. Rangers starter Jordan Montgomery pitched exceptionally well down the stretch, allowing just two earned runs over his last four starts. He's made 14 career starts against the Rays and hasn't fared well, however, posting a 4.93 ERA and 1.48 WHIP. Current Tampa Bay hitters have had plenty of success against the left-hander, batting just shy of .300 in 84 at-bats with six home runs. Rays starter Tyler Glasnow will be pleased to be facing the Rangers as he owns a 0.46 ERA and 0.56 WHIP, albeit in just three career outings against them. Glasnow also checks in sporting a 3.18 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in 10 home starts this season. The bullpens are virtually a wash with one important exception. The Rangers have converted just 30 saves this season while blowing an identical 30. Meanwhile, the Rays 'pen has converted 45 saves while blowing only 26. This series won't be a walk for Tampa Bay but I do expect it to gain the upper hand in Game 1 on Tuesday. Take Tampa Bay (8*). |
|||||||
09-30-23 | Dodgers -160 v. Giants | 1-2 | Loss | -160 | 13 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over San Francisco at 9:05 pm et on Saturday. Clayton Kershaw will get his final start of the regular season for the Dodgers on Saturday and while this is a meaningless game in the grand scheme of things, I do expect the future Hall-of-Famer to keep the same approach and take care of his business the way he always does. Kershaw will undoubtedly be happy to be facing the Giants, noting that he owns a 1.98 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in 56 career starts against them. He most recently tossed five shutout innings in a 7-0 victory over San Francisco one week ago tonight. San Francisco will give the start to Tristan Beck. He's been reasonably effective out of the bullpen this season but not so much as a starter. In two previous starts, Beck has allowed nine earned runs in seven innings. Note that the trio of Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and J.D. Martinez have gone a combined 5-for-9 off of Beck without a single strikeout. The Dodgers bullpen doesn't own as much of an advantage as you might think in this game as the Giants relief corps has been fairly reliable if not overworked (they're approaching 700 innings pitched on the season). With that said, the Los Angeles bullpen is easy to trust away from home, where it has converted 21 saves while blowing only six this season. Take Los Angeles (8*). |
|||||||
09-30-23 | Red Sox v. Orioles -130 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
A.L. East Game of the Month. My selection is on Baltimore over Boston at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. The Red Sox were shutout victors in last night's matchup between these two teams, evening the series at a game apiece. I look for the Orioles to answer back on Saturday. Kutter Crawford will take the ball for Boston. He's lasted six innings just once in his last six starts and checks in sporting a 5.69 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in 13 nighttime starts this season. Current Orioles hitters have had plenty of success against Crawford, reaching him for 11 hits in 22 at-bats with only three strikeouts to go along with three walks. Kyle Gibson will counter for Baltimore. He's given the O's a big lift when it counts this season, logging a 3.18 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in eight starts against A.L. East opponents, with Baltimore winning six of those contests. He's also closing out the regular season in excellent form, posting a 2.45 ERA and 1.04 WHIP over his last three starts. For his career, Gibson has recorded a 3.72 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in nine previous starts against Boston. The Orioles own a slight advantage in terms of the bullpen matchup. Baltimore's relief corps has posted a collective 1.86 ERA and 0.62 WHIP over the last seven games, being called into duty for only 19 1/3 innings over that stretch. Take Baltimore (10*). |
|||||||
09-29-23 | Cubs -111 v. Brewers | 3-4 | Loss | -111 | 12 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago over Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Friday. The Cubs margin for error is razor-thin at this point after they were swept in a three-game series in Atlanta. The good news is, they're heading to Milwaukee to face a Brewers club that wrapped up the N.L. Central title earlier this week and will be looking to give some of their regular starters some rest during this series. I do think Chicago has the right guy on the mound to end its losing skid on Friday as it hands the ball to veteran Kyle Hendricks. The Cubs are a perfect 4-0 in his last four outings against the Brewers. Current Milwaukee hitters have gone a woeful 34-for-152 (.224) with 40 strikeouts and 17 walks against Hendricks. He deserved better than the loss he received in his most recent outing as he gave up three earned runs, only one of them earned, over six innings against the Pirates. The fact that Hendricks hasn't allowed a home run in seven of his last eight starts is a good indicator that he's in solid form down the stretch. Colin Rea will counter for Milwaukee. He was demoted to the bullpen following his last start. Rea pitched reasonably well earlier in the season but has seen his FIP rise to 5.07 thanks to a rough stretch this month. He lasted fewer than five innings in each of his four September starts. It's difficult to get a sense for how Cubs hitters will fare against Rea as only Cody Bellinger and Jeimer Candelario have seen him previously (a combined three at-bats). The Brewers bullpen has certainly been superior to that of the Cubs this season but I question how Milwaukee will handle its key relief arms (likely very carefully) in this series with the playoffs on the horizon. Take Chicago (8*). |
|||||||
09-28-23 | Cardinals v. Brewers OVER 7.5 | 0-3 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between St. Louis and Milwaukee at 4:10 pm et on Thursday. Dakota Hudson has been a fixture in the Cardinals starting rotation since the beginning of August but it's been out of necessity only. He owns a 5.14 FIP and 1.47 WHIP on the season and runs into a Brewers club that has had plenty of success against him. Current Milwaukee hitters are 18-for-54 (.333) off Hudson and the right-hander has recorded an ugly 9:11 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Note that Hudson has been at his worst on the road this season, logging a 7.62 ERA and 1.92 WHIP in five starts, allowing a ridiculous 37 hits in 26 innings while posting a 9:13 strikeout-to-walk ratio. I understand why bettors might be a little spooked after the Brewers sent out their 'B' lineup last night (after clinching the N.L. Central the night previous) but I'm not overly concerned. Corbin Burnes will get the call for Milwaukee. He's alternated good and bad starts going all the way back to the second week of August. After tossing five shutout innings in Miami last time out, you have to figure he's in for some regression here. Note that Burnes hasn't been his dominant self this season, recording a 4.50 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in 13 home starts (the 'over' has gone 9-4). Even if we don't see a bullpen implosion, I believe this total is low enough for these two teams to get 'over' it. Take the over (8*). |
|||||||
09-27-23 | Padres -105 v. Giants | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 25 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Diego over San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Wednesday. To say Padres hitters have worn out former teammate Sean Manaea would be an understatement. They've gone a combined 26-for-78 (.333) off the left-hander including 11 extra-base hits. Manaea is coming off a stunning seven-inning, shutout performance on the road against the Dodgers but I'm willing to pay to see him to do it again here. On the season, Manaea owns a 5.48 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in 23 innings of work here at home. Rookie Matt Waldron will counter for the Padres. He's been getting better with each start, most recently striking out nine and allowing only one earned run in 5 2/3 innings in a 4-2 victory over the Cardinals. Prior to that he gave up two earned runs in 5 1/3 innings in a 4-2 road win over the A's. I'll continue to beat the drum that the Giants bullpen is severely overworked in the final week of the season. San Francisco's relief corps is approaching a whopping 700 collective innings on the campaign. In stark contrast, the Padres bullpen entered last night's contest having logged just 561 innings. Take San Diego (8*). |
|||||||
09-27-23 | Padres v. Giants OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
N.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between San Diego and San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Wednesday. We've now seen three straight meetings between these two N.L. West rivals stay 'under' the total including the first two contests in this series. I look for a different story to unfold on Wednesday, noting you would have to go back to the end of the 2021 season and the beginning of 2022 to find the last time we saw an 'under' streak lasting more than two games in this matchup. Of note, Giants starter Sean Manaea has seen two of his last six trips to the hill result in BOTH teams scoring double-digit runs. The 'under' cashed in his most recent outing against the Dodgers but you would have to go back to last September to find the last time he recorded 'under' results in consecutive starts. The Padres have been a better offensive club on the road this season where they average 5.0 runs per game but they've also allowed 0.4 runs per game above their season average away from home, good for an average total of 9.5 runs. Finally, the possibility of late offensive production is certainly in play with the Padres bullpen having recorded a 5.02 ERA and 1.63 WHIP over the last seven games and the Giants 'pen severely overworked on the campaign, approaching 700 total innings and having posted a 6.18 ERA and 1.59 WHIP over the last seven contests. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
09-27-23 | Cardinals v. Brewers -128 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
N.L. Central Game of the Year. My selection is on Milwaukee over St. Louis at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Brewers jumped ahead early and had their opportunity to throw a knockout punch against the reeling Cardinals in last night's series-opener, but squandered it in an eventual 4-1 loss. I look for Milwaukee to bounce back on Wednesday as it hands the ball to veteran left-hander Wade Miley against Zack Thompson of the Cards. Thompson remains in the St. Louis starting rotation out of necessity only as the Cards are simply playing out the string at this point. The right-hander checks in sporting a 4.72 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in eight appearances this season. He just faced the Brewers last week, allowing four earned runs including two home runs in five innings. Note that Thompson has topped out at six strikeouts in his last seven starts. Wade Miley threw six shutout innings in a 6-0 victory over the Cards last week. In fact, Milwaukee has won each of his last three and five of his last six starts overall. Note that Miley owns a 3.08 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 12 nighttime starts this season. While his career numbers against the Cards aren't eye-popping, he has handled their current lineup. St. Louis hitters have gone 18-for-63 (.286) off the left-hander with five extra-base hits. Keep in mind, Paul Goldschmidt is 10-for-20 against Miley with a pair of doubles and a pair of home runs. The problem for Goldy right now is, it's just not that difficult to pitch around him given the current state of the St. Louis lineup (Nolan Arenado headlines the list of players on the I.L.). Sporting one of the best bullpens in baseball, the Brew Crew should have a significant edge in the latter innings on Tuesday. Milwaukee relievers have not only been effective, but haven't been overworked either, logging a collective 538 2/3 innings on the campaign (entering last night's action). The Brewers 'pen entered this series having recorded a collective 1.93 ERA and 1.36 WHIP over the last seven games. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
|||||||
09-26-23 | Padres -118 v. Giants | Top | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 15 h 9 m | Show |
Division Game of the Week. My selection is on San Diego over San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Tuesday. The Padres dropped a heart-breaker and spoiled another win for likely N.L. Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell in the opener of this series last night. San Diego couldn't get anything going offensively after plating a run in the first inning against Giants ace Logan Webb. I expect a different story to unfold on Tuesday as they face San Francisco rookie Kyle Harrison. While Harrison undoubtedly has a bright MLB future, he's been going through it since his late-August call-up. Harrison checks in having allowed 14 earned runs in just 20 innings of work over his last four starts. This will be his second career start against the Padres after getting lit up to the tune of six earned runs in 5 2/3 innings back on September 2nd. Behind Harrison is a struggling Giants bullpen that entered last night's contest sporting an ERA well north of six over the last seven games. The good news is they weren't pressed into duty thanks to Logan Webb's complete game performance. The bad news is, they do figure to play a prominent role on Tuesday, noting that Harrison has lasted six innings just once in six career outings. Seth Lugo will take the ball for San Diego. He has quietly been the Padres most consistent starter outside of Snell, working at least six innings in 11 of his last 15 starts. In nine outings against N.L. West opponents this season he has logged a 3.16 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. He should be happy to be facing the Giants here, noting that he has posted a 3.08 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in four career starts against them. Like the Giants, the Padres didn't need to use many bullpen resources last night and unfortunately it was to their detriment leaving Robert Suarez in the game for the final 1 1/3 innings. All told, Padres relievers have worked around 120 innings fewer than the Giants relief corps this season. Take San Diego (10*). |
|||||||
09-26-23 | Reds v. Guardians -102 | 11-7 | Loss | -102 | 21 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland over Cincinnati at 6:10 pm et on Tuesday. We'll fade the Reds after they snapped their losing streak with a victory over the Pirates on Sunday. Now they follow up an off day on Monday with a short trip to Cleveland to face a Guardians club that is essentially playing with 'house money', albeit not in a positive way, as they play out the string at the end of a disappointing campaign. Guardians starter Lucas Giolito has bounced around more than any starter in baseball this season so he'll be looking to audition for next season in what is likely his last start of the year on Tuesday. His results have been mixed since joining Cleveland but he is just one start removed from striking out 12 batters over seven shutout innings against Texas so we know what he's capable of. Reds starter Hunter Greene has had an up-and-down campaign as well. He's the pitcher that falls into the letdown spot here after striking out 14 batters against the Twins in his most recent turn in the starting rotation. Note that Cincinnati still lost that game 5-3 as its offense has run dry down the stretch. Of course the Reds 'need this one more' but that should have little bearing on the end result on Tuesday. I like the Guardians chances of playing spoiler against their cross-state rival. Take Cleveland (8*). |
|||||||
09-25-23 | Padres -116 v. Giants | 1-2 | Loss | -116 | 15 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Diego over San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Monday. While it's a case of too little, too late, the Padres have undoubtedly played their best baseball down the stretch. Monday's starter, Blake Snell, has posted Cy Young Award-caliber numbers, logging a 2.33 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. As usual, command has been an issue and as a result Snell's FIP has remained relatively high at 3.48. Here, he'll face a Giants club that doesn't walk at an abnormally high rate but does strike out a ton. Snell should be happy to be facing San Francisco, noting that he owns a career 1.83 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in eight starts against it. The Giants will hand the ball to their ace Logan Webb. Note that he'll be making his second consecutive start on short rest (four days) and looks like a pitcher that's running out of gas a bit having worked north of 200 innings on the season. Webb has topped out at six strikeouts over his last four starts, reaching just four in three of those outings. Speaking of overworked, the Giants bullpen has logged just shy of 700 total innings this season. Entering last night's contest, San Francisco relievers had combined to post a 7.60 ERA and 1.95 WHIP over the last seven games. Take San Diego (8*). |
|||||||
09-24-23 | Mets v. Phillies OVER 9 | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
N.L. Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Philadelphia at 6:05 pm et on Sunday. While I do like the Mets to avoid the sweep in Sunday's series finale in Philadelphia, I think they're going to have a hard time holding down the Phillies offense. New York starter Jose Butto has only faced the Phillies once previously but made quite an impression, and not in a good way. Current Phillies hitters are a combined 7-for-13 off of him. Alec Bohm is a perfect 3-for-3 with a pair of home runs. Behind Butto is a worn out Mets bullpen that hasn't had a day off since September 7th. It's a similar story for Philadelphia's relief corps as the Phils haven't been idle since September 7th either. Christopher Sanchez will get the start for Philadelphia. Mets hitters have gone 8-for-23 off of him with three extra-base hits. He checks in having allowed seven earned runs over his last two outings, covering a span of just 11 1/3 innings. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
09-23-23 | Giants v. Dodgers -1.5 | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles -1.5 runs over San Francisco at 9:10 pm et on Saturday. I like the bounce-back spot for the Dodgers here as they send Clayton Kershaw to the hill against the Giants on Saturday. Kershaw will be happy to be facing rival San Francisco, noting that he owns a career 2.01 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in 55 outings against the Giants. His last four starts against them have resulted in Dodgers victories by scores of 7-4, 5-3, 7-3 and most recent 10-5 back on April 12th. Off a one-run performance last night, this is an ideal rebound spot for Los Angeles, noting that it still averages 5.3 runs per game at home this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.4 runs. Take Los Angeles -1.5 runs (8*). |
|||||||
09-22-23 | Royals v. Astros OVER 8 | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Kansas City and Houston at 8:10 pm et on Friday. Royals starter Cole Ragans has had a terrific season, at least since joining Kansas City early in the campaign. I do think he'll be in tough on Friday, however, as he faces the Astros for the second time in less than a week, noting that a number of Houston hitters have wore him out, including Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez and Jeremy Pena (a combined 7-for-19 with five walks). As a team, the Astros are averaging an impressive 6.1 runs per game against left-handed starting pitching this season. With that being, said Houston hasn't exactly been running away from the competition lately. It has lost six of its last nine games including two of three against these same Royals last weekend in Kansas City. Framber Valdez will get the start for the Astros on Friday. He'll be starting on short rest (four days) and that's worth noting as he has posted a 5.81 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in that situation this season (five starts, 27 2/3 innings), compared to a 2.83 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 23 starts on full rest. Behind Valdez is an Astros bullpen that has struggled to the tune of a 4.63 ERA and 1.46 WHIP over the last seven games. Of course, the Royals bullpen has had a tough time all season, recording a collective 5.19 ERA and 1.47 WHIP with 24 saves converted and 23 blown. Noting that Kansas City road games have totalled an average of 8.8 runs while Houston home games have reached 9.2 runs per game on average, we'll confidently back the 'over' on Friday. Take the over (8*). |
|||||||
09-21-23 | Braves -1.5 v. Nationals | 10-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta -1.5 runs over Washington at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Nationals dropped the opener of their three-game series against the White Sox but bounced back by taking the final two games. Washington hasn't had a day off since September 7th and will be right back at it on Thursday as it opens a four-game set against the Braves. Atlanta checks in off another losing series, this one at the hands of the Phillies. Yesterday's defeat came in heart-breaking fashion as the Braves rallied from three runs down to tie the game but ultimately fell in extra innings. I'm confident we'll see left-hander Max Fried guide them out of their slump on Thursday. Fried had his start pushed back due to a blister. A couple of extra days off probably isn't the worst thing at this time of year. While Fried owns an ERA well north of four in 15 career starts against the Nationals, that doesn't tell the whole story. Current Washington hitters have gone a combined 11-for-64 (.172) off of Fried with a grand total of just two extra-base hits. Washington will hand the ball to Jake Irvin. Like a lot of rookie starters, he has labored down the stretch, allowing a whopping 13 walks and nine earned runs over his last four outings. He's never faced any of the current Braves hitters before but I'm willing to bet on Atlanta's loaded lineup inflicting plenty of damage. Atlanta checks in averaging 5.7 runs per game and outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.5 runs on the road this season. While the Braves bullpen has struggled lately, it does enter this series sporting a collective 3.83 ERA and 1.28 WHIP with 27 saves converted and only 10 blown on the road this season. Take Atlanta -1.5 runs (8*). |
|||||||
09-20-23 | Tigers v. Dodgers OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 13 m | Show |
Interleague Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Detroit and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a low-scoring affair between these two teams last night as the Dodgers took the second game of this series by a 3-2 score. I'm anticipating a much higher-scoring contest on Wednesday as Detroit sends Reese Olson to the hill against Bobby Miller in a matchup of rookie starting pitchers. Olson has admittedly pitched well over his last several starts. Keep in mind, three of his last four outings have come at pitcher-friendly Comerica Park in Detroit. He owns a 4.23 ERA and 1.23 WHIP on the road this season with the 'over' cashing in four of his six starts. Olson did shut out the White Sox over seven innings in his most recent road start but there were certainly some smoke and mirrors involved as he struck out just one batter in that contest. Bobby Miller has surpassed the 100-inning mark on the season and has shown signs of running out of steam, allowing eight earned runs in 12 2/3 innings over his last two outings. Note that he'll be starting on short rest (four days) here after laboring through his last start in Seattle (three earned runs on six hits and two walks over 5 2/3 innings). The Tigers have proven to be a scrappy bunch this season, entering Wednesday's action just 11 games under .500 (11-7 over their last 18 games). I do think they have a realistic shot at avoiding the series sweep here but the Dodgers are as consistent as it gets offensively, particularly at home and they'll undoubtedly inflict some damage against a rookie starting pitcher, not to mention a Tigers bullpen that hasn't had a day off since September 11th. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
09-20-23 | Guardians v. Royals OVER 9 | 2-6 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Kansas City at 2:10 pm et on Wednesday. I expect plenty of offensive fireworks as the Guardians and Royals wrap up their season series on Wednesday afternoon in Kansas City. Lucas Giolito will take the ball for Cleveland. He struck out a season-high 12 batters in his most recent outing. The only previous time he recorded double-digit strikeouts this season he followed it up by allowing four earned runs over seven innings in a game that totalled 16 runs back in late June. While Giolito has had success against Kansas City, much of that came earlier in his career. Kansas City will be seeing him for the sixth time since the start of last season having plated 12 earned runs in 27 1/3 innings against him over that stretch. Zack Greinke will counter for the Royals. To say that current Guardians hitters have worn him out would be an understatement. They've gone a combined 47-for-134 (.351) against him including a whopping 14 extra-base hits. Only Jose Ramirez has struggled against the veteran right-hander and a lot of that has had to do with balls simply not falling in as he's struck out just once in 19 at-bats against Greinke (four hits). While the Royals bullpen is in slightly better recent form, as a whole that unit has struggled at home this season, logging a 5.47 ERA and 1.56 WHIP (entering last night's action). The Guardians relief corps hasn't been much better on the road, recording a collective 4.49 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. Between the two teams they've blown a ridiculous 51 saves this season (again entering last night's action) while converting 67. Take the over (8*). |
|||||||
09-19-23 | Red Sox v. Rangers OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 23 h 55 m | Show |
A.L. Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Texas at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. While Nathan Eovaldi would like nothing more than to gain an ounce of 'revenge' against his former club after dropping a 10-6 decision in Boston the last time he faced them in July, he brings awful form into this outing. Eovaldi has made three starts since returning from a lengthy stint on the injured list and they haven't gone well (or lasted long). In those three trips to the hill he has posted a lofty 7.73 ERA and 2.43 WHIP. He has faced 37 batters over that stretch, allowing 17 of them to reach base. His counterpart on Tuesday will be Tanner Houck of the Red Sox. He's coming off a masterful six-inning shutout performance against the Yankees last time out. With that said, he's just one start removed from giving up nine earned runs over his previous 10 1/3 innings of work. He's been at his worst at night this season, recording a 5.44 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in nine starts with the 'over' cashing in six of those games. Keep in mind, the Rangers entered this series with their home games having produced an average total of 10.7 runs this season. With neither bullpen in solid form, the potential is there for late inning runs as well. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
09-18-23 | Mariners -165 v. A's | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 15 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle over Oakland at 9:40 pm et on Monday. The Mariners got swept in a critical three-game series at home against the Dodgers and now head to Oakland licking their wounds as they look to bounce back and stay in A.L. Wild Card hunt. They've got the right guy on the mound to do just that in rookie Bryan Woo. He had his turn in the starting rotation skipped earlier this month out of concern his arm was tiring having logged north of 120 innings between the minors and bigs this season. That came on the heels of an ugly start in Cincinnati in which he allowed five earned runs over five innings without striking out a single batter. When he did return to the mound on September 12th, he delivered 5 2/3 innings of four-hit shutout ball, striking out eight without issuing a single walk. He'll be making his second career start against the A's on Monday. In his previous outing against them he twirled six shutout innings of three-hit ball in a 7-0 Mariners win on August 28th. J.P. Sears will counter for Oakland. He does own terrific numbers in four career starts against Seattle, logging a 0.86 WHIP and 0.95 WHIP. Keep in mind, the last time he saw the Mariners back in May, he wasn't necessarily fooling anyone, striking out just one batter over five innings. In a similar vein, Sears has reeled off victories in each of his last three starts overall, yet he has recorded a disappointing 9:8 strikeout-to-walk ratio over that stretch, covering a span of 17 innings. The A's are just 4-9 in his 13 home starts this season where he has posted a 4.76 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. The bullpens in this matchup have been a wash lately but there's no denying the Mariners relief corps has been the superior group as a whole this season. I like the spot for the Seattle 'pen here after Sunday's lopsided defeat against the Dodgers allowed it to use only two relievers, keeping its key arms rested for Monday's trip to Oakland. Note that Mariners relievers have combined to record a 3.26 ERA and 1.13 WHIP with 13 saves converted and only one blown against divisional opponents this season. Take Seattle (8*). |
|||||||
09-17-23 | Padres v. A's +154 | 10-1 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oakland over San Diego at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. A's starter Ken Waldichuk has enjoyed a nice turnaround as this season has gone on and enters this start in terrific form having allowed just five hits and one earned run over his last three outings, covering a span of 16 innings of work. He's expected to get the bulk of the work on Sunday, perhaps after rookie Joe Boyle gets the first inning in an 'opener' role. While the Padres have taken the first two games of this series, they're still just a team playing out the string, not a whole lot different from the A's. I look for Oakland to salvage Sunday's series finale as they take on Nick Martinez of San Diego. Martinez checks in sporting a rather pedestrian 4.18 FIP and 1.31 WHIP on the season. In his two most recent appearances he didn't manage to strike out a single batter, allowing five-of-nine he faced to reach base in 1 2/3 innings. This amounts to a 'bullpen game' for the Padres and I look for the A's bats to take advantage. Take Oakland (8*). |
|||||||
09-16-23 | Dodgers v. Mariners +132 | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle over Los Angeles at 9:40 pm et on Saturday. The Dodgers took the opener of this series by a 6-3 score last night. I look for the Mariners to answer back on Saturday. Future Hall-of-Famer Clayton Kershaw will take the ball for Los Angeles. He enters this start having allowed at least one home run in five straight outings and eight walks over his last two trips to the hill, spanning just 10 innings of work. The Mariners have never defeated Kershaw in four tries against him but it's worth noting that he hasn't faced Seattle since 2020. Rookie Bryce Miller will get the call for the Mariners. He got roughed up to the tune of five earned runs allowed over five innings against the Rays last time out. Miller's last two starts came on the road. Here at home he owns a 3.62 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in 12 starts with the Mariners winning eight of those. While the Dodgers bullpen figures to have an advantage over that of the Mariners however I do feel Seattle's relief corps is worthy of support, noting that it has converted 21 saves while blowing only six at home this season. Take Seattle (8*). |
|||||||
09-15-23 | Dodgers v. Mariners OVER 7.5 | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
Interleague Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Seattle at 10:10 pm et on Friday. Both of these teams got a much needed day off yesterday and I think we're set for an entertaining series in the Pacific Northwest this weekend. The Dodgers will look to bounce back after dropping two of three games at home against the Padres, scoring just one run in their most recent setback on Wednesday. I'm confident we'll see them bust out once again at the plate here as they go up against Mariners starter George Kirby. He's had a fine sophomore campaign by all accounts but has struggled down the stretch, perhaps showing signs of wearing down having logged a career-high 165 2/3 innings. Kirby has allowed at least three earned runs and worked beyond the sixth inning only once over his last five outings. Since striking out nine in a start against the White Sox on August 23rd, he's compiled just nine strikeouts in total over his last three outings covering a span of 13 innings. You would have to go back to August 12th to find the last time he didn't allow a home run in a start. Only three current Dodgers hitters have faced Kirby. Of note, J.D. Martinez is 3-for-6 with a home run off of the right-hander. Dodgers rookie Bobby Miller gave up five earned runs over seven frames against the light-hitting Nationals in his most recent outing. That makes it three out of his last four outings that he's allowed at least four earned runs. He did strike out a season high eight batters in that start but also allowed nine of the 30 batters he faced to reach base. The two bullpens are in fine shape after being idle yesterday but I'm willing to bet on the two offenses bouncing back and we're working with a reasonably low total given the fact that Dodgers road games have averaged a whopping 10.9 total runs this season. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
09-14-23 | Rangers v. Blue Jays -146 | 9-2 | Loss | -146 | 11 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto over Texas at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Blue Jays will look to avoid the four-game series sweep against the Rangers on Thursday. I like their chances as they send Kevin Gausman to the hill against Nathan Eovaldi. Gausman bounced back from a rough stretch by tossing eight innings of two-hit, one-run ball, striking out 10 along the way against the Royals last time out. His career numbers against the Rangers are a mixed bag with a 3.21 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. Gausman does catch a break with the Rangers missing Adolis Garcia and Josh Jung among others. Note that current (healthy) Rangers hitters have gone just 23-for-82 off of Gausman. Nathan Eovaldi has made two starts since returning from the I.L. He hasn't gotten all that stretched out, working just 1 1/3 and 2 1/3 innings in those two outings. Eovaldi hasn't seemed quite right, giving up eight hits while striking out only four and walking three in 3 2/3 innings since returning. Current Blue Jays hitters have gone 31-for-102 against Eovaldi with eight extra base hits. Both bullpens have struggled lately. The Blue Jays 'pen has been anything but overworked, however, logging just 21 2/3 innings over the last eight games. Meanwhile, Rangers relievers have worked just shy of 40 innings over that same stretch. Take Toronto (8*). |
|||||||
09-13-23 | A's v. Astros -1.5 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
A.L. Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Houston -1.5 runs over Oakland at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Astros have continued to scuffle along in this series, dropping the first two games while scoring a grand total of just two runs. I'm confident we see them explode at the plate on Wednesday while starter Hunter Brown bounces back from an ugly outing in his last turn in the starting rotation. Paul Blackburn will take the ball for Oakland. He has pitched well enough for the A's this season and they've actually won seven of his last nine trips to the hill. With that being said, this is a nightmarish matchup for the right-hander. Current Astros hitters have absolutely worn him out going 29-for-101 at the dish including seven home runs (Yordan Alvarez has an eye-popping three home runs in 12 at-bats against him). Blackburn has recorded a less than impressive 18:9 strikeout-to-walk ration against Houston. Also of note, Blackburn will be starting on short rest (four days) after laboring through three innings (six hits and three walks allowed) against the Rangers last time out. As I mentioned, Hunter Brown is in bounce-back mode after getting lit up for six earned runs over 4 1/3 innings against the Padres. He'll be happy to see the A's on Wednesday, noting that he owns a perfect 3-0 team record with a 2.37 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in 19 innings of work against them this season. Brent Rooker is one A's hitter than has gotten to him (3-for-6) but he hasn't had a multi-hit game since August 29th and was relegated to the bench last night. While the Astros bullpen remains in terrific shape having yet to eclipse the 500-inning mark on the season, it's a much different story for Oakland's relief corps. A's relievers have logged a whopping 608 1/3 innings (entering last night's action) this season, recording a 5.70 ERA and 1.62 WHIP away from home. Take Houston -1.5 runs (10*). |
|||||||
09-13-23 | Rangers v. Blue Jays -112 | 10-0 | Loss | -112 | 11 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto over Texas at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. I really like the bounce-back spot for the Blue Jays here after they dropped the first two games of this series. Jordan Montgomery will take the ball for Texas. He has posted solid overall numbers this season but things have certainly gone south lately as he has recorded an 8.59 ERA and 1.64 WHIP over his last three starts, covering a span of 14 2/3 innings. Current Blue Jays hitters have gotten to the left-hander to the tune of 30-for-100 at the plate. Of note, Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. have combined to reach him for 10 hits including three home runs in 29 at-bats. Yusei Kikuchi has quietly been one of Toronto's most reliable starting pitchers this season, entering Wednesday's outing sporting a 3.57 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. He turned in an efficient five-inning outing against the Royals last time out, allowing just three hits and one earned run while striking out eight and walking one. While he's taking a step up in class against the Rangers here, I think he'll actually be happy to see Texas, noting he owns a perfect 4-0 team record with a 2.89 ERA and 0.64 WHIP in 18 2/3 innings of work against them. Some will point to the fact that he hasn't faced them since 2021 but current Rangers hitters have gone a woeful 9-for-50 with just three extra-base hits off of Kikuchi. Neither bullpen has pitched particularly well lately but it's worth noting that the Rangers relief corps has combined to blow 14 saves while converting only 11 on the road this season (entering last night's action). Meanwhile, the Blue Jays have made good on 49 save opportunities while blowing only 16 on the campaign. Take Toronto (8*). |
|||||||
09-12-23 | Padres v. Dodgers -151 | Top | 2-11 | Win | 100 | 15 h 24 m | Show |
N.L. Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles over San Diego at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Padres took the opener of this series last night, putting up 10 runs in a wild, high-scoring affair. I expect the Dodgers to answer back on Tuesday. Michael Wacha will take the ball for San Diego. He mercifully hasn't faced the Dodgers since 2019 as he owns a lofty 5.51 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in 10 previous outings against them. While Wacha has posted solid overall numbers this season he has labored through his last few starts, recording a 5.28 ERA and 1.76 WHIP in his last 15 1/3 innings of work. Lance Lynn gets the start for Los Angeles. Like Wacha, the veteran right-hander has also struggled lately. I'm willing to bet on him bouncing back on Tuesday as he should be happy to be facing the Padres, noting that he owns a 2.61 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 10 career outings against them. In fact, Lynn has already faced San Diego once since joining the Dodgers prior to the trade deadline, holding them to one earned run over six innings in an 8-2 victory on August 6th. There's not a lot separating the two bullpens although it's worth noting that the Padres have more than twice as many blown saves on the road (17) as the Dodgers do at home (8). Take Los Angeles (10*). |
|||||||
09-11-23 | Cubs v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | 5-4 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Monday. The Cubs are coming off a low-scoring series against the Diamondbacks - a series in which they salvaged Sunday's finale after dropping the first three games. I expect Chicago to have no such trouble at the plate on Monday as it departs the friendly confines of Wrigley Field to open a three-game set at hitter-friendly Coors Field in Denver. Jordan Wicks will get a fourth consecutive turn in the starting rotation for the Cubs. He's pitched well, allowing just four earned runs in 16 2/3 innings of work. With that said, he's not missing many bats, striking out only four over his last two outings after racking up nine strikeouts in his big league debut. Note that the light-hitting Giants actually reached him for nine hits in 6 2/3 innings in his most recent start. Also note that he'll be making his second straight start on short rest (four days). The Rockies should be in a foul mood as they return home off a series sweep at the hands of the Giants (and four straight losses overall). As bad as Colorado has been this season, it has averaged a solid 5.1 runs per game at home. Kyle Freeland will get the start for the Rockies. Current Cubs hitters have quite simply worn him out, going a combined 26-for-68 (.382) off of him with 11 extra-base hits including a pair of home runs. Freeland did pitch well last time out against Arizona but he's just one start removed from allowing six earned runs over 5 2/3 innings against the Braves and now faces a Cubs team that averages an impressive 5.5 runs per game against left-handed starting pitching this season. The Cubs certainly have the better bullpen in this matchup, but note that they haven't had a day off since August 31st and have been involved in a string of nail-biters, meaning they're approaching 'overworked' territory once again. Colorado's 'pen has logged an ugly 6.14 ERA and 1.67 WHIP at home this season. Take the over (8*). |
|||||||
09-10-23 | Diamondbacks v. Cubs -136 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago over Arizona at 2:20 pm et on Sunday. One more clutch hit would have probably done it for the Cubs yesterday but instead they dropped their third straight game at the hands of the Diamondbacks and will be looking to avoid a disastrous four-game sweep on Sunday afternoon. I like their chances of doing just that. After facing Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly over the last two days, the Cubs will take a step down in class against D'Backs rookie Brandon Pfaadt on Sunday. Pfaadt has flashed at times during his rookie campaign but has generally struggled and enters in poor form having allowed 10 earned runs on 17 hits over his last three outings covering a span of just 13 innings. Veteran Kyle Hendricks will be tasked with helping the Cubs snap their skid. He gave up four earned runs over 5 1/3 innings against the Giants last time out but is just one start removed from tossing six innings of one-run, four-hit ball against the Brewers. Chicago has won three of his last four starts overall and he owns a terrific 3.15 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in nine daytime starts this season. The bullpens are virtually a wash except for the fact that Arizona has nearly twice as many blown saves this season (25 compared to 15). Take Chicago (8*). |
|||||||
09-09-23 | Diamondbacks v. Cubs -137 | 3-2 | Loss | -137 | 17 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago over Arizona at 2:20 pm et on Saturday. The Diamondbacks have closed the gap on the Cubs in the N.L. Wild Card race, winning three straight games including two in a row to open this series at Wrigley Field. I expect the Cubs to bounce back on Saturday, however, as they send Justin Steele to the hill against Merrill Kelly. Steele has been on the mound for an incredible nine straight Cubs victories. A 20-win campaign is well within his sights at this point and I look for him to take another step toward that goal on Saturday. Note that Steele has tossed 14 shutout innings over his last two starts, striking out 20 and walking only three along the way. Merrill Kelly is coming off a lights out performance of his own, allowing one earned run over seven innings against the Rockies. He's also just one start removed from giving up seven earned runs on 12 hits over five innings against the Dodgers. Current Cubs hitters haven't seen a whole lot of Kelly, with the exception of former division rival Cody Bellinger who has two home runs in 22 at-bats against him. The two bullpens are virtually a wash in this matchup although the D'Backs have blown 15 saves on the road while the Cubs have just six blown saves at home. Take Chicago (8*). |
|||||||
09-08-23 | Mariners v. Rays OVER 8 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and Tampa Bay at 6:40 pm et on Friday. I think we see a strong bounce-back performance from both offenses in this matchup on Friday after the Mariners secured a 1-0 victory last night. Seattle starter George Kirby has had a fine sophomore season but he appears to be hitting the wall late in the campaign. Note that he's worked a career-high 159 1/3 innings and things won't get any easier as he faces a tough opponent in the Rays on Friday and does so on short rest (four days) for a second straight turn in the rotation. Kirby checks in having allowed 13 earned runs over his last four starts, covering a span of just 18 1/3 innings. Behind Kirby is a Mariners bullpen that has been involved in a ton of nail-biters lately and entered last night's action with a collective 5.48 ERA and 1.65 WHIP over the last seven games. Tampa Bay will send Taj Bradley to the hill. The rookie owns a 4.09 FIP and 1.42 WHIP in just shy of 80 innings of work this season. His command issues have been glaring over his last two starts as he's issued nine walks in just 8 1/3 innings. Averaging less than five innings per start this season, expect plenty of pressure to be on the Rays bullpen once again here, noting it is approaching 600 relief innings on the season. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
09-07-23 | Tigers +150 v. Yankees | Top | 10-3 | Win | 150 | 11 h 0 m | Show |
Game of the Week. My selection is on Detroit over New York at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Yankees are suddenly one of the hottest teams in baseball, winners of five games in a row and eight of their last nine contests overall. I look for the Tigers to bring an end to their run on Thursday, however. Eduardo Rodriguez will take the ball for Detroit. After a rocky outing against the red hot Astros bats on August 26th, Rodriguez rebounded to hold the White Sox to just one earned run over 6 2/3 innings last time out. That performance lowered his road ERA and WHIP to 3.03 and 1.11 respectively on the season. Rodriguez is of course very familiar with the Yankees from his day with the division rival Red Sox. He's held up well against the Bronx Bombers, logging a 3.63 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in 22 career starts against them, with his teams winning 12 of those games. Carlos Rodon will counter for New York. It's been a tough return from injury for the left-hander as he has managed to work beyond the fifth inning in only three of nine starts since returning in early July. While the Yankees did manage to win his last start by a 6-2 score in Houston, Rodon was once again average at best, allowing three hits and two earned runs while striking out only four and walking one in five frames. New York has only won two of his nine starts this season. The last time it won a Rodon start, it dropped a 5-2 decision against the Rays at home in his next trip to the hill. The Yankees bullpen has been lights out lately but I don't mind the matchup here with the Tigers 'pen having posted a 4.01 ERA and 1.33 WHIP while converting 20 saves and blowing 11 on the road this season. Take Detroit (10*). |
|||||||
09-07-23 | Mariners v. Rays OVER 8 | 1-0 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and Tampa Bay at 6:40 pm et on Thursday. The Mariners are favored in this game thanks to the starting pitching matchup. While I certainly respect Luis Castillo, he's tasked with a difficult challenge here as the Rays have produced 26 runs over their last five games and have been incredibly consistent when it comes to manufacturing offense this season, averaging 5.3 runs per game overall, 5.2 runs per game at home and 5.1 runs per game against right-handed starting pitching. Castillo will be starting on short rest (four days) after laboring through five innings against the Mets last time out, allowing five earned runs on eight hits while striking out only two and walking two. Behind Castillo is a Mariners bullpen that is approaching overworked territory over the last week, involved in a number of nail-biters. Seattle relievers have logged a 5.48 ERA and 1.65 WHIP over the last seven games, converting just one save and blowing two. Zack Littell will counter for Tampa Bay. He's in the starting rotation out of necessity only having allowed four earned runs in each of his last three starts. He has yet to work beyond the sixth inning in any of his 10 starts this season. The Mariners continue to see the ball well at the plate, averaging 4.9 runs per game over their last seven contests and 5.0 runs per game on the road this season. The Rays bullpen has posted a 1.98 ERA and 0.95 WHIP over the last seven games but has also blown three saves over that stretch. Take the over (8*). |
|||||||
09-06-23 | Mariners -160 v. Reds | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle over Cincinnati at 6:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Mariners bullpen coughed it up in last night's 7-6 defeat. That hasn't been a common occurrence as Seattle's relief corps has been among the best in baseball this season, posting a 3.43 ERA and 1.27 WHIP with 40 saves converted and only 16 blown (entering last night's action). The M's 'pen has also logged well south of 500 innings on the campaign, leaving it in excellent shape down the stretch. Contrast that with the Reds bullpen which has logged a 4.02 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in 548 2/3 innings (also entering last night's contest). Enough about the bullpens though, let's talk about the starting pitching matchup on Wednesday. Logan Gilbert will get the call for the Mariners. They dropped his last start in a heart-breaker against the Mets, losing 2-1 in Queens. Note that Seattle hasn't lost consecutive Gilbert starts since June 11th and 17th. Since then, they've gone 10-3 in his last 13 outings. Gilbert brings excellent form into this start having allowed just two earned runs in 13 2/3 innings over his last two outings, striking out 16 and walking only one along the way. Lyon Richardson will counter for Cincinnati. While he's enjoyed plenty of success at the minor league level this season, that hasn't translated to the majors. In three spot starts, Richardson has worked just 12 innings, recording a 7.76 FIP and 1.75 WHIP with 20-of-56 batters he's faced reaching base. The Mariners can certainly make you pay for putting runners on base as they are among the big league leaders in home runs with 184 on the season. They check in averaging just north of 5.0 runs per game on the road. Take Seattle (8*). |
|||||||
09-06-23 | Brewers v. Pirates UNDER 8.5 | 4-5 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and Pittsburgh at 12:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Pirates bats have gone cold as we've flipped the calendar page over to September and I don't see this as an ideal bounce-back spot as they wrap up a three-game set with the Brewers on Wednesday afternoon at PNC Park. Freddy Peralta will get the start for Milwaukee. He should be happy to be facing the Pirates noting that he owns a 2.45 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in 10 career starts against them including two outings this year. Peralta brings excellent form into this start having allowed two earned runs or less in five straight trips to the hill. He's recorded double-digit strikeouts in five of his last 10 outings. Colin Selby will once again be tasked with 'opening' for the Pirates on Wednesday. He got roughed up in his most recent outing against the Cardinals as he was seeing them for a second straight day. Here, I'm confident we'll see him bounce back. While Selby's overall numbers aren't eye-popping, he has recorded 10.9 strikeouts per nine innings and draws a manageable matchup against a Brewers club that entered last night's action averaging just 4.0 runs per game on the road this season. We'll see plenty of the Pirates bullpen in this game but that's not necessarily a bad thing. They have one of the more underrated relief corps' in baseball and check in having posted a 1.91 ERA and 0.99 WHIP over the last seven games (entering last night's action). Here at home this season they've converted 22 saves while blowing only seven. The Brewers 'pen is in excellent form as well having recorded a collective 2.94 ERA and 1.20 WHIP over the last seven contests (also entering last night's affair). Take the under (8*). |
|||||||
09-05-23 | Blue Jays v. A's UNDER 8.5 | 7-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Oakland at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday. Monday's series-opener between these two teams found its way 'over' the total thanks to extra innings. I expect a lower-scoring affair on Tuesday as Toronto sends Chris Bassitt to the hill against Ken Waldichuk of the A's. Bassitt is of course familiar with pitching here in Oakland. He spent the majority of his big league career as a member of the A's before going on to greener pastures, so to speak. There is a bit of an art to starting games in this ballpark, where the lofty dimensions tend to be a pitcher's friend. Note that Bassitt comes off one of his best outings of the season as he tossed eight shutout innings against the Nationals last week. He's been at his best under the lights, logging a 2.96 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 18 nighttime starts this season. Ken Waldichuk was originally slated to start Monday's game but had his outing pushed back a day. As he approaches 100 innings of work this season, a little extra rest can certainly help the young left-hander. It's been a trying campaign for Waldichuk but we have seen him shown signs of figuring it out, at least here at home, in recent starts. His last two home outings came against a pair of tough opponents in the Rangers and Orioles. In those two starts he allowed just four earned runs in 11 2/3 innings. While his command wasn't necessarily on point in his most recent start (five walks in four innings against Seattle) he did give up just one earned run (and one hit). Again, positive signs from a pitcher that's still figuring out how to succeed at the big league level. The 'over' has now cashed in each of the Blue Jays last four games and that's notable as they haven't posted a longer 'over' streak since a five-game 'over' run in late April-early May (that was their longest such streak this season). Take the under (8*). |
|||||||
09-05-23 | Twins v. Guardians UNDER 8 | Top | 8-3 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
A.L. Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Cleveland at 6:10 pm et on Tuesday. These two teams produced a whopping 26 runs in Monday's series-opener with the Twins doing much of the heavy-lifting in a 20-run outburst. Here, I expect nothing of the sort as Minnesota hands the ball to Sonny Gray against Tanner Bibee of the Guardians. We saw this same starting pitching matchup just last week with Cleveland prevailing by a 5-2 score. Noting that Gray has allowed one earned run or less in three of his last four starts and has worked at least six innings in an incredible 11 of his last 12 outings, I like his chances of keeping the Guardians bats at bay on Tuesday. Keep in mind, Cleveland entered this series averaging just 3.6 runs per game at Progressive Field this season. Bibee has impressed in his rookie campaign. He's been particularly tough at home where he has logged a 2.02 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 10 starts spanning 58 innings of work. While the Twins bats have been hot over the last few games, they entered last night's action averaging just 4.2 runs per game on the road this season. While things didn't go particularly well for either bullpen last night, both relief corps did enter this series in solid form with Twins relievers combining to post a 2.48 ERA and 0.95 WHIP over the last seven games while the Guardians 'pen checked in with a 2.70 ERA and 1.20 WHIP over the same stretch. It's worth noting that you would have to go back 18 meetings - to September of last year - to find the last time these two teams posted consecutive 'over' results in this series. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
09-04-23 | Phillies v. Padres OVER 9 | 9-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and San Diego at 6:40 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams are coming off low-scoring results on Sunday with the Phillies rallying for a 4-2 win in Milwaukee and the Padres blanking the Giants 4-0 here at home. I expect a different story to unfold on Monday as Philadelphia sends Taijuan Walker to the mound against Rich Hill. Both starters have been fortunate to limit the damage, relatively-speaking, over their last few starts respectively. Walker checks in with a 4.49 FIP and 1.31 WHIP on the season. Yet the Phillies have gone an incredible 12-2 in his last 14 outings. Needless to say they've risen to the occasion at the plate with Walker on the hill and here we'll note that they average 5.1 runs per game when facing left-handed starting pitching this season, as will be the case against veteran Rich Hill on Monday. Since joining San Diego prior to the trade deadline, Hill has logged a 7.48 FIP and 1.61 WHIP. He's actually been fortunate to allow 'only' 17 earned runs over his last five starts as 31 of the 83 batters he faced over that stretch managed to reach base. The Padres bullpen has held up well recently but I question how long it can keep it up, noting San Diego hasn't had an off day since August 24th. Meanwhile, the Phillies relief corps has logged a collective 3.91 ERA and 1.35 WHIP over the last seven games, converting three saves but also blowing two over that stretch. Take the over (8*). |
|||||||
09-03-23 | Braves v. Dodgers OVER 9.5 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
National League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Los Angeles at 4:10 pm et on Sunday. The Braves have taken the first three games of this series and while I do think the Dodgers can rise up and avoid the sweep on Sunday, I think they're in for a battle. Charlie Morton will get the call for the visiting Braves. The Dodgers are certainly familiar with the right-hander. Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and David Peralta in particular have worn Morton out over the course of his career, combining to go 29-for-70 with 11 extra-base hits off of him. Morton has pitched exceptionally well over his last four starts but those came against the Mets (twice), Yankees and Rockies. He'll be taking a step up in class here. Behind Morton is a Braves bullpen that hasn't had a day off since August 24th and entered last night's action sporting a collective 5.31 ERA and 1.38 WHIP over the last seven games. Rookie Bobby Miller will counter for the Dodgers. That sets this up as a 'revenge game' of sorts for the Braves after Miller held them to one earned run over five innings in an 8-1 victory in his first career big league start back in May. Miller has hit the rookie wall a little bit lately, allowing eight earned runs over his last two starts and topping out at five strikeouts in his last five outings. While the Los Angeles bullpen had held up well prior to last night's extra innings defeat, it hasn't had a day off since August 21st and is well north of the 525-inning mark on the season. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
09-02-23 | Orioles -134 v. Diamondbacks | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on Baltimore over Arizona at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. The Diamondbacks took care of the Orioles by a 4-2 score last night to snap a three-game losing streak. I look for Baltimore to bounce back behind underrated starter Kyle Bradish on Saturday. Bradish has posted terrific numbers this season, logging a 3.45 FIP and 1.11 WHIP in 133 2/3 innings of work. Over his last three starts he has given up just 13 hits in 18 innings, striking out 23 and walking only three along the way. Rookie Slade Cecconi has pitched reasonably well for the Diamondbacks when called upon. He owns a sub-1.00 WHIP on the season but has worked only 21 innings. I can't help but feel regression is coming for the right-hander, noting he had posted a lofty 6.38 ERA and 1.38 WHIP in 100+ innings of work at the Triple-A level earlier this season. Despite closing out last night's game, the D'Backs bullpen still owns a less than impressive 6.57 ERA and 1.54 WHIP over the last seven games. Take Baltimore (8*). |
|||||||
09-02-23 | Twins v. Rangers -1.5 | Top | 9-7 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
A.L. Game of the Month. My selection is on Texas -1.5 runs over Minnesota at 7:15 pm et on Saturday. The Twins easily disposed of the Rangers by a 5-1 score last night. Max Scherzer was still able to eat six innings for Texas in the loss and the Rangers didn't use any of their best relief arms. That's a positive as it's been 'feast-or-famine' for the Texas bullpen this season, which is why I'm more comfortable backing it at a more reasonable price on the run-line on Saturday. The Rangers have either been able to nail down games, or blow them completely, their really hasn't been much middle ground. But I digress. The real story here is that Dallas Keuchel earned himself another turn in the Twins starting rotation thanks to a terrific performance against the Pirates last time out (6 1/3 innings with no earned runs allowed). That start came at home, where he's been just fine in two outings this season. The road has been another story entirely. Going back to last season, Keuchel has allowed 6, 7, 7, 6, 6, 2 and 8 earned runs in seven road starts. He lasted beyond the fifth inning in only one of those outings. With the Rangers feasting on left-handed starting pitching, to the tune of 6.1 runs per game this season, they're in line for a breakout performance at the plate following a brief slump. Jordan Montgomery will get the start for the Rangers. He's been sharp since coming over in a trade with the Cardinals. He did labor through his most recent outing against these same Twins but still gave up just three earned runs in 5 1/3 innings. I mentioned the inconsistent nature of the Rangers bullpen this season but it's not as if the Twins relief corps has been lights out either. They check in having closed out 15 saves while blowing 12 on the road this season. Take Texas -1.5 runs (10*). |
|||||||
09-01-23 | Orioles -109 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -109 | 25 h 57 m | Show |
Interleague Game of the Year. My selection is on Baltimore over Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Friday. While Orioles left-hander Cole Irvin has had a tough time staying healthy this season, when he's been right, he's been terrific. Irvin opened the campaign with a string of three consecutive poor outings. Since then, he's allowed one earned run or less in six of eight starts. Last time out, he made a few bad pitches on the way to allowing four earned runs against the Rockies but still hung in there for six innings in an eventual 5-4 victory. Baltimore checks in having won each of Irvin's last six trips to the hill. Here, he'll face a Diamondbacks team that is licking its wounds after a three-game sweep at the hands of the Dodgers (none of those games were close). They check in averaging just 4.4 runs per game against left-handed starting pitching this season and 4.5 runs per contest at Chase Field. In stark contrast, the Orioles have put up an average of 5.3 runs per game in posting a 41-24 road record. Zach Davies will get the start for Arizona. The D'Backs wasted a rare quality start from Davies last time out as he allowed just one earned run in five innings against the Reds but they dropped an 8-7 decision. Davies owns a disappointing 4.69 FIP and 1.60 WHIP this season. He's just one start removed from allowing nine earned runs in 3 2/3 innings and has given up at least six earned runs in three of his last seven outings. Not helping the D'Backs cause is the fact that their bullpen has logged a 6.57 ERA and 1.54 WHIP over the last seven games. Meanwhile, the O's 'pen has posted a collective 3.00 ERA and 1.10 WHIP over the same stretch. Take Baltimore (10*). |
|||||||
08-30-23 | Pirates v. Royals OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
Interleague Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Pittsburgh and Kansas City at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. While I do expect the Royals slumping bats to wake up in Wednesday's series finale against the Pirates, I'm not convinced they can keep Pittsburgh at bay with a fading pitching staff. Last night, Kansas City got another outstanding start from Cole Ragans - one of the few bright spots in its starting rotation - but it wasn't enough as the Pirates plated six runs across the eighth and ninth innings in an eventual 6-3 victory. Angel Zerpa will be tasked with silencing the Buccos on Wednesday. He sports a 6.04 FIP and 1.56 WHIP in 17 1/3 innings pitched this season. The alarming thing is, he isn't even the biggest issue the Royals are facing. Their bullpen has been overworked and has posted an ugly 7.01 ERA and 1.64 WHIP over the last seven games. On the season, Royals relievers have combined to convert only five saves while blowing 13 here at home. Andre Jackson will get another turn in the starting rotation for the Pirates. He's been better since coming over to Pittsburgh from the Dodgers but that's not saying much as he has still allowed five earned runs on nine hits while striking out 11 and walking five in eight innings of work across two starts. My bigger concern here is the Pirates bullpen. Note that Pittsburgh hasn't had a day off since August 17th and its 'pen has worked 34 innings over the last seven games alone, recording a 5.56 ERA and 1.41 WHIP over that stretch. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
08-29-23 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 1-9 | Loss | -113 | 15 h 35 m | Show |
Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Arizona and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a wild, high-scoring affair between these two teams last night but I expect a much different story to unfold on Tuesday. Merrill Kelly will get the start for the visiting Diamondbacks. He turned in one of his best outings of the season last week as he tossed seven shutout innings of one-hit ball, striking out 12 against the Reds. Note that Kelly has worked at least six innings in four of his last five starts. On the season, he's lowered his FIP to 3.92 and his WHIP to 1.13. Clayton Kershaw will counter for Los Angeles. His last start was cut short by rain in Cleveland. You would have to go back 10 starts to find the last time he allowed more than two earned runs. The veteran left-hander owns a terrific 3.76 FIP and 1.02 WHIP on the campaign. While the D'Backs bullpen has struggled, I do think Kelly can eat enough innings that they're not a major factor in this one. Meanwhile, the Dodgers 'pen entered last night's action sporting a collective 2.95 ERA and 1.13 WHIP over the last seven contests. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
08-29-23 | Reds +145 v. Giants | 1-6 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cincinnati over San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Tuesday. The Giants cruised to a 4-1 victory to open this series last night, notching their second straight victory. I'm confident we'll see the Reds bounce back on Tuesday as they give Brandon Williamson the start against Alex Cobb. Williamson is coming off a terrific outing in Arizona as he tossed six shutout innings in an eventual 3-2 loss. In fact, the Reds have lost each of his last three starts - their longest such streak of the season - despite Williamson logging a 2.60 ERA and 1.21 WHIP over that stretch. We know what we're going to get from Giants starter Alex Cobb. He owns a 3.96 FIP and 1.38 WHIP on the season and far worse, a 7.20 ERA and 1.73 WHIP over his last three starts. The Giants bullpen didn't have to do much heavy lifting last night and that's probably a good thing as they entered that contest sporting a collective 4.91 ERA and 1.36 WHIP with two saves converted and three blown over their last seven games. Take Cincinnati (8*). |
|||||||
08-29-23 | Yankees v. Tigers -118 | 4-2 | Loss | -118 | 11 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit over New York at 6:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Yankees took the opener of this series last night but are still going nowhere as they wallow beneath the .500 mark on the season. Here, I look for the Tigers to bounce back as they hand the ball to underrated left-hander Tarik Skubal against Michael King. Skubal has logged a 1.92 FIP and 1.08 WHIP in 44 1/3 innings of work this season after posting an impressive 2.96 FIP and 1.16 WHIP in 117 1/23 frames last year. The Michael King starting experience hasn't worked out for the Yankees as they've dropped his two prevous starts this season and seven of his last eight starts overall going back to 2020. Neither bullpen has pitched particularly well lately. As is often the case, the Yankees bullpen is being priced in as an advantage but I don't believe the gap is as wide as most believe (note the Tigers have converted 32 saves while blowing only 18 this season). Take Detroit (8*). |
|||||||
08-28-23 | Reds +105 v. Giants | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 7 m | Show |
National League Game of the Week. My selection is on Cincinnati over San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Monday. The Reds managed to secure just one win in a four-game series in Arizona but I look for them to bounce back as they head to San Francisco on Monday. Andrew Abbott will take the ball for Cincinnati. He's enjoyed a fine rookie campaign having logged a 4.01 FIP and 1.17 WHIP in 85 1/3 innings of work. While walks have been an issue at times, he's made up for it by striking out just shy of 10 batters per nine innings and also giving up just north of seven hits per nine innings. Note that Abbott has yet to hit a batter or throw a wild pitch this season. His counterpart on Monday will be fellow rookie Kyle Harrison, who will be making his second big league start. Harrison's first outing went ok but he certainly wasn't dominant, recording a 5.97 FIP and 1.80 WHIP in 3 1/3 innings (small sample size, I know). At the minor league level this season (Rookie League and Triple-A) he has worked 67 2/3 innings, posting a 4.52 ERA and 1.48 WHIP. The Giants threw some key relievers at the Braves last night as they were desperately trying to hold on to avoid a series sweep (they succeeded). Note that San Francisco relievers have now logged just shy of 580 innings on the season and well north of 30 innings over the last seven games. Entering last night's contest they had recorded a collective 5.26 ERA and 1.41 WHIP over the last seven games. While the Reds bullpen has been taxed lately as well, it did enter Sunday's action sporting a 3.21 ERA and 1.25 WHIP over the last seven contests. On the season, Reds relievers have converted 27 saves while blowing only 10 on the road. Take Cincinnati (10*). |
|||||||
08-27-23 | Cubs v. Pirates OVER 9 | Top | 10-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 47 m | Show |
Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Pittsburgh and Chicago at 1:35 pm et on Sunday. The Cubs took the third game of this series by a 10-6 score last night. I look for a similarly high-scoring affair on Sunday afternoon. Javier Assad will take the ball for Chicago. He has been anything but dominant this season, logging a 4.67 FIP and 1.25 WHIP, which is about on par for his career numbers, yet the Cubs have managed to win each of his last four starts. Note that while only four current Pirates hitters have faced Assad before, they've gone a combined 3-for-6 with both Connor Joe and Jack Suwinski homering off of the right-hander. Bailey Falter will counter for Pittsburgh. He's been quietly effective since returning to the starting rotation earlier this month with the Pirates winning two of his three starts. With that being said, he still owns a 5.03 FIP and 1.40 WHIP this season and will be up against a Cubs team that averages 5.5 runs per game against left-handed starting pitching this season. Current Cubs hitters are a combined 9-for-21 against Falter with four extra base hits and only four strikeouts. Neither bullpen has been all that effective lately with the Pirates in particular being overworked, logging a collective 38 2/3 innings over the last seven games. Also note that neither team has had a day off since August 17th, putting even more pressure on the bullpens at this late stage of the season. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
08-26-23 | Rangers -115 v. Twins | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Texas over Minnesota at 7:15 pm et on Saturday. We've seen a pair of high-scoring games to open this series with the Twins bats having their way with Rangers pitching. I do think that changes on Saturday as Texas hands the ball to Max Scherzer against Joe Ryan of the Twins. Scherzer is coming off a rough outing against the Brewers as he was chased in the fourth inning after giving up three earned runs in an eventual 6-2 loss. The ultimate competitor, I'm confident we'll see Mad Max bounce back here, noting he still owns a sparkling 2.55 FIP and 0.97 WHIP in four starts since joining the Rangers. Scherzer should be able to use his full arsenal against a Twins lineup that has had limited experience against him. Current Twins hitters are a combined 7-for-26 (.269) against Scherzer with only one extra-base hit (a home run from Kyle Farmer). Joe Ryan makes his return from a stint on the injured list for the Twins. To say he's owned Rangers hitters would be an understatement as they've gone just 2-for-31 (.065) with one extra-base hit (a home run from Marcus Siemian) off of him. Ryan struck out seven and gave up just one earned run over four innings in his minor league rehab start at Triple-A St. Paul. With all of that said, Ryan seemed to have a case of the 'yips' when we last saw him at the big league level as he was tagged for a whopping 17 home runs over his last seven starts, covering a span of just 32 innings. The Rangers bats have been rather dormant lately but certainly have the potential to break out at any time. Neither bullpen has been all that reliable lately. I do like backing teams coming off blowout results, however, as it generally leads to their key arms being rested, as is the case with the Rangers here. Mired in a long losing streak, they should be confident taking the field behind Scherzer on Saturday and I look for them to bust out of their slump. Take Texas (8*). |
|||||||
08-25-23 | Dodgers -115 v. Red Sox | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
Interleague Game of the Week. My selection is on Los Angeles over Boston at 7:10 pm et on Friday. The Red Sox salvaged a four-game series split in Houston thanks to a blowout victory yesterday. I'm not convinced they'll be able to notch a third straight win on Friday, however, as they welcome the Dodgers to Fenway Park. Los Angeles picked up a pair of victories in Cleveland yesterday. The Dodgers are in cruise control as they run away with the N.L. West Division title but that doesn't mean they've taken their foot off the gas as they continue to play winning baseball. Veteran Lance Lynn will get the call for Los Angeles on Friday. It's amazing what moving to a contending team can do for a pitcher as we've seen Lynn give up just four earned runs in four starts, spanning 25 innings of work since joining the Dodgers. His opponent on Friday will be Kutter Crawford. While he has had a fine season, he hasn't proven to be a good fit pitching here at Fenway Park, where he owns an inflated 8.00 ERA and 1.67 WHIP in seven starts. Behind Crawford is a Red Sox bullpen that has been severely overworked, logging 517 2/3 innings this season (entering yesterday's action) and having not had a day off since August 14th. The Dodgers 'pen entered Thursday's action sporting a collective 2.39 ERA and 0.80 WHIP over the last seven games. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
|||||||
08-25-23 | Cubs v. Pirates +105 | 1-2 | Win | 105 | 10 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on Pittsburgh over Chicago at 7:05 pm et on Friday. The Cubs are admittedly playing well right now, winners of five of their last six games including an extra innings victory to open this series last night. I like the Pirates chances of getting back at Chicago on Friday, however, as they send Mitch Keller to the hill against Kyle Hendricks. Keller had a rough stretch in July and early August but has since turned it around again, allowing only three earned runs while striking out 19 and walking just four in 12 innings of work over his last two starts. He owns a 3.53 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 12 home starts this season. Behind him is a Pirates bullpen that continues to pitch well, particularly here at home where it has converted 20 saves while blowing only seven this season. Kyle Hendricks was masterful over 6 1/3 innings last time out but that was against the Royals. Note that he has posted a 4.47 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in nine nighttime starts this year. Ke'Bryan Hayes, Andrew McCutchen and Bryan Reynolds are three current Pirates hitters that have homered off of Hendricks at least once. Take Pittsburgh (8*). |
|||||||
08-24-23 | Rangers +113 v. Twins | 5-7 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Texas over Minnesota at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. The Rangers limp into Minnesota on the heels of six straight losses while the Twins are licking their wounds following a two-game sweep at the hands of the Brewers in Milwaukee. Here, I like Texas to bounce back as it sends Andrew Heaney to the mound against Pablo Lopez. Heaney put together consecutive solid outings to start the month before struggling in his last two starts. He'll be happy to be facing the Twins, noting he owns a perfect 4-0 team record in four career starts against them, logging a 2.38 ERA and 0.79 WHIP along the way. Current Twins hitters are a combined 20-for-84 (.238) against the veteran left-hander with no home runs and only seven extra-base hits (all doubles). Pablo Lopez has been terrific for the Twins lately. In fact, he's allowed just one earned run over his last four starts, covering a span of 25 innings of work. No Rangers batter has seen Lopez more than four times but Adolis Garcia is 2-for-3 with a home run off of him. My bigger concern for the Twins here is their bullpen. They got stretched thin in Milwaukee thanks to yesterday's extra innings affair. Note that their relief corps entered yesterday's contest sporting a collective 5.87 ERA and 1.70 WHIP over the last seven games and didn't do anything to help their cause in that extra innings defeat. Meanwhile, the Rangers were idle on Wednesday. Take Texas (8*). |
|||||||
08-23-23 | Royals -120 v. A's | Top | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 7 h 51 m | Show |
American League Game of the Week. My selection is on Kansas City over Oakland at 3:35 pm et on Wednesday. The A's have taken the first two games of this series but I'm confident we'll see the Royals answer back on Wednesday afternoon. Cole Ragans has quietly pitched well for Kansas City with the Royals splitting his four starts since being inserted into the rotation earlier this month. On the season, Ragans owns an impressive 2.26 FIP in 28 2/3 innings of work. While he has struggled in two previous outings against Oakland (both last season), current A's hitters haven't done much damage against him going a combined 3-for-20 at the dish. Adrian Martinez will get a spot start for Oakland - his first of the season. He was awful last year, posting a 5.35 FIP and 1.53 WHIP in 12 starts. In 32 1/3 relief innings this season, Martinez has logged a 4.44 FIP and 1.42 WHIP. Neither bullpen has been all that sharp lately but I do have more faith in the Royals relief corps, which has combined to convert 13 saves while blowing only seven on the road this season. Contrast that with the A's 'pen, which has blown 12 saves compared to just 11 converted at home. Take Kansas City (10*). |
|||||||
08-22-23 | Nationals +165 v. Yankees | 2-1 | Win | 165 | 12 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington over New York at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. This is quickly becoming a lost season for the Yankees as they've lost nine games in a row to fall out of contention in the American League and last place in the A.L. East. While a home series with the Nationals would usually provide some relief, the fact is Washington is playing much better baseball lately and is certainly no 'easy out'. The Nats have won seven of their last nine games overall and will hand the ball to Josiah Gray on Tuesday. Remember, Gray was selected to the National League All-Star team earlier this season. While he hasn't exactly posted All-Star caliber numbers lately, I do think he's capable of rising to the occasion following a string of rocky outings. In 14 road starts this season, the right-hander has logged a terrific 2.82 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. That's world's better than what we've seen from Yankees left-hander Carlos Rodon. Since returning from a long stint on the injured list, Rodon has posted a 7.38 FIP and 1.52 WHIP in six starts. New York has managed to win just one of his six outings to date. While the Yankees bullpen has certainly been superior to that of the Nationals this season, we're still talking about an overworked relief corps that is approaching 480 innings pitched on the campaign. Lately, the Yanks 'pen has been anything but invincible, recording a collective 3.98 ERA and 1.42 WHIP over the last seven games. Take Washington (8*). |
|||||||
08-22-23 | Cubs v. Tigers +110 | 6-8 | Win | 110 | 11 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit over Chicago at 6:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Cubs have been giving Drew Smyly minimal turns in the rotation lately, and for good reason. The veteran left-hander hasn't had a productive start since mid-June, allowing 31 earned runs over his last six outings, covering a span of just 27 innings of work. Over that stretch, the Cubs won just one of Smyly's starts and that was in a game where they produced 16 runs against the Reds. Rookie Reese Olson has had an up-and-down start to his big league career. He allowed four earned runs in just 2 2/3 innings against the Twins last time out. Note that was his second straight start against Minnesota and in his previous one he tossed six shutout innings. After dropping Olson's first two starts, the Tigers have now gone 5-4 over his last nine trips to the hill. Neither bullpen has been all that reliable lately and are virtually a wash on the season. Take Detroit (8*). |
Register for an Account Now for Free Picks and More Special Offers!
Sean Murphy MLB Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
04-10-24 | A's v. Rangers -1.5 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 112 | 14 h 32 m | Show |
04-10-24 | Nationals v. Giants -1.5 | 1-7 | Win | 107 | 8 h 59 m | Show | |
04-10-24 | Dodgers v. Twins UNDER 9 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 16 h 8 m | Show | |
04-09-24 | Astros v. Royals +114 | 3-4 | Win | 114 | 11 h 16 m | Show | |
04-09-24 | Marlins +169 v. Yankees | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 56 m | Show | |
04-09-24 | Orioles -136 v. Red Sox | 7-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 29 m | Show | |
04-08-24 | Rays -135 v. Angels | Top | 1-7 | Loss | -135 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
04-08-24 | Marlins +145 v. Yankees | 0-7 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 33 m | Show | |
04-07-24 | Padres v. Giants -1.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
04-07-24 | Phillies v. Nationals UNDER 8.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 31 m | Show | |
04-06-24 | Mets v. Reds -115 | 6-9 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show | |
04-06-24 | Dodgers v. Cubs UNDER 8 | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
04-05-24 | Mariners v. Brewers UNDER 8 | 5-6 | Loss | -114 | 10 h 42 m | Show | |
04-05-24 | Diamondbacks v. Braves OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 23 h 34 m | Show |
04-04-24 | White Sox v. Royals -1.5 | 1-10 | Win | 126 | 22 h 28 m | Show | |
04-03-24 | Giants v. Dodgers UNDER 8.5 | 4-5 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 47 m | Show | |
04-03-24 | Pirates -151 v. Nationals | 3-5 | Loss | -151 | 11 h 5 m | Show | |
04-03-24 | Reds v. Phillies UNDER 7.5 | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 19 h 29 m | Show | |
04-03-24 | Angels v. Marlins -114 | 10-2 | Loss | -114 | 7 h 31 m | Show | |
04-02-24 | Giants +130 v. Dodgers | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 22 m | Show | |
04-02-24 | Yankees v. Diamondbacks -111 | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 14 h 1 m | Show | |
04-02-24 | Rockies v. Cubs -1.5 | 2-12 | Win | 115 | 12 h 19 m | Show | |
04-02-24 | Angels v. Marlins -140 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -140 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
04-02-24 | Twins v. Brewers UNDER 8.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 19 h 17 m | Show | |
04-01-24 | Giants v. Dodgers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
04-01-24 | Braves -1.5 v. White Sox | 9-0 | Win | 100 | 17 h 8 m | Show | |
03-31-24 | Red Sox +134 v. Mariners | 5-1 | Win | 134 | 8 h 40 m | Show | |
03-30-24 | Yankees v. Astros -128 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -128 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
03-29-24 | Blue Jays v. Rays -113 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 22 h 33 m | Show |
11-01-23 | Rangers v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8.5 | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 13 h 9 m | Show | |
10-31-23 | Rangers v. Diamondbacks -105 | Top | 11-7 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
10-30-23 | Rangers -104 v. Diamondbacks | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 23 h 21 m | Show | |
10-24-23 | Diamondbacks +158 v. Phillies | 4-2 | Win | 158 | 14 h 5 m | Show | |
10-23-23 | Rangers +114 v. Astros | Top | 11-4 | Win | 114 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
10-20-23 | Phillies -124 v. Diamondbacks | 5-6 | Loss | -124 | 12 h 26 m | Show | |
10-19-23 | Phillies v. Diamondbacks +117 | 1-2 | Win | 117 | 10 h 14 m | Show | |
10-18-23 | Astros +121 v. Rangers | 8-5 | Win | 121 | 24 h 2 m | Show | |
10-17-23 | Diamondbacks +149 v. Phillies | Top | 0-10 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
10-16-23 | Rangers v. Astros -118 | 5-4 | Loss | -118 | 10 h 34 m | Show | |
10-11-23 | Dodgers -140 v. Diamondbacks | 2-4 | Loss | -140 | 25 h 48 m | Show | |
10-10-23 | Astros v. Twins UNDER 8 | Top | 9-1 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
10-09-23 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -149 | 4-2 | Loss | -149 | 13 h 33 m | Show | |
10-09-23 | Phillies v. Braves -149 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 21 m | Show | |
10-07-23 | Phillies v. Braves -195 | 3-0 | Loss | -195 | 8 h 48 m | Show | |
10-07-23 | Phillies v. Braves OVER 8.5 | 3-0 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 47 m | Show | |
10-04-23 | Rangers v. Rays OVER 8 | 7-1 | Push | 0 | 7 h 32 m | Show | |
10-03-23 | Rangers v. Rays -146 | 4-0 | Loss | -146 | 18 h 22 m | Show | |
09-30-23 | Dodgers -160 v. Giants | 1-2 | Loss | -160 | 13 h 12 m | Show | |
09-30-23 | Red Sox v. Orioles -130 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
09-29-23 | Cubs -111 v. Brewers | 3-4 | Loss | -111 | 12 h 54 m | Show | |
09-28-23 | Cardinals v. Brewers OVER 7.5 | 0-3 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 15 m | Show | |
09-27-23 | Padres -105 v. Giants | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 25 h 54 m | Show | |
09-27-23 | Padres v. Giants OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
09-27-23 | Cardinals v. Brewers -128 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
09-26-23 | Padres -118 v. Giants | Top | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 15 h 9 m | Show |
09-26-23 | Reds v. Guardians -102 | 11-7 | Loss | -102 | 21 h 47 m | Show | |
09-25-23 | Padres -116 v. Giants | 1-2 | Loss | -116 | 15 h 53 m | Show | |
09-24-23 | Mets v. Phillies OVER 9 | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
09-23-23 | Giants v. Dodgers -1.5 | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show | |
09-22-23 | Royals v. Astros OVER 8 | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show | |
09-21-23 | Braves -1.5 v. Nationals | 10-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show | |
09-20-23 | Tigers v. Dodgers OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 13 m | Show |
09-20-23 | Guardians v. Royals OVER 9 | 2-6 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 43 m | Show | |
09-19-23 | Red Sox v. Rangers OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 23 h 55 m | Show |
09-18-23 | Mariners -165 v. A's | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 15 h 47 m | Show | |
09-17-23 | Padres v. A's +154 | 10-1 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 34 m | Show | |
09-16-23 | Dodgers v. Mariners +132 | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 37 m | Show | |
09-15-23 | Dodgers v. Mariners OVER 7.5 | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
09-14-23 | Rangers v. Blue Jays -146 | 9-2 | Loss | -146 | 11 h 60 m | Show | |
09-13-23 | A's v. Astros -1.5 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
09-13-23 | Rangers v. Blue Jays -112 | 10-0 | Loss | -112 | 11 h 47 m | Show | |
09-12-23 | Padres v. Dodgers -151 | Top | 2-11 | Win | 100 | 15 h 24 m | Show |
09-11-23 | Cubs v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | 5-4 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 49 m | Show | |
09-10-23 | Diamondbacks v. Cubs -136 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 26 m | Show | |
09-09-23 | Diamondbacks v. Cubs -137 | 3-2 | Loss | -137 | 17 h 47 m | Show | |
09-08-23 | Mariners v. Rays OVER 8 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
09-07-23 | Tigers +150 v. Yankees | Top | 10-3 | Win | 150 | 11 h 0 m | Show |
09-07-23 | Mariners v. Rays OVER 8 | 1-0 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 3 m | Show | |
09-06-23 | Mariners -160 v. Reds | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show | |
09-06-23 | Brewers v. Pirates UNDER 8.5 | 4-5 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 31 m | Show | |
09-05-23 | Blue Jays v. A's UNDER 8.5 | 7-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 12 m | Show | |
09-05-23 | Twins v. Guardians UNDER 8 | Top | 8-3 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
09-04-23 | Phillies v. Padres OVER 9 | 9-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show | |
09-03-23 | Braves v. Dodgers OVER 9.5 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
09-02-23 | Orioles -134 v. Diamondbacks | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show | |
09-02-23 | Twins v. Rangers -1.5 | Top | 9-7 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
09-01-23 | Orioles -109 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -109 | 25 h 57 m | Show |
08-30-23 | Pirates v. Royals OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
08-29-23 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 1-9 | Loss | -113 | 15 h 35 m | Show |
08-29-23 | Reds +145 v. Giants | 1-6 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 15 m | Show | |
08-29-23 | Yankees v. Tigers -118 | 4-2 | Loss | -118 | 11 h 15 m | Show | |
08-28-23 | Reds +105 v. Giants | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 7 m | Show |
08-27-23 | Cubs v. Pirates OVER 9 | Top | 10-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 47 m | Show |
08-26-23 | Rangers -115 v. Twins | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show | |
08-25-23 | Dodgers -115 v. Red Sox | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
08-25-23 | Cubs v. Pirates +105 | 1-2 | Win | 105 | 10 h 10 m | Show | |
08-24-23 | Rangers +113 v. Twins | 5-7 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 42 m | Show | |
08-23-23 | Royals -120 v. A's | Top | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 7 h 51 m | Show |
08-22-23 | Nationals +165 v. Yankees | 2-1 | Win | 165 | 12 h 2 m | Show | |
08-22-23 | Cubs v. Tigers +110 | 6-8 | Win | 110 | 11 h 27 m | Show |