Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-12-18 | Air Force v. San Diego State -10.5 | Top | 17-21 | Loss | -118 | 46 h 39 m | Show |
At 9 pm, our selection is on the San Diego State Aztecs minus the points over Air Force. We played on SDSU last week as a huge underdog at Boise State, and were rewarded with a 19-13 upset win. Some may look for a letdown on Friday night, but not me. Indeed, winning home favorites of -7+ points, off outright wins as 8-point (or greater) road underdogs the previous week, have cashed 18 in a row vs. losing teams! Meanwhile, Air Force is a horrid 11-24 ATS away from home vs. conference foes, including 1-8 ATS its last nine. Lay the points with San Diego State. Perfect 10 Club. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-12-18 | Dodgers -150 v. Brewers | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -150 | 7 h 40 m | Show |
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10-11-18 | Eagles -2.5 v. Giants | Top | 34-13 | Win | 100 | 22 h 50 m | Show |
At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles minus the points over the New York Giants. The defending Super Bowl champion Eagles were upset, 23-21, at home last Sunday by the Vikings. And that was their second straight loss, overall. But those two defeats set up our play tonight, as defending champs have cashed 60% over the last 37 seasons off back to back losses, including 85% ATS on the road if they entered with a losing record. The Eagles are 2-3, and know that they have to win tonight, if they are to have any hope of securing a Top 2 Conference record, and the all-important bye in the first round of the playoffs which comes with it. The Giants are an awful 3-10 ATS their last 13 games as a home underdog of +4 or less points. Take Philly. NFL High Roller Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-08-18 | Redskins v. Saints -6 | Top | 19-43 | Win | 100 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Saints minus the points over Washington. The New Orleans Saints were expected to be one of the NFL's best teams this season, but did get off to a slow start, as they failed to cover the spread in their first two games -- both at home, by the way -- including a straight-up loss to Tampa Bay, as a 10-point favorite. But then the Saints bounced back with impressive road wins at Atlanta, and at the New York Giants. Now, they will try to cash a ticket in front of their home faithful, and they will welcome a Redskins team which upset Green Bay, 31-17, in its last game. I like the Saints here, as Monday Night home favorites, off back to back road games, are 57-32-3 ATS, including 25-7 ATS if their win percentage was .700 or better. Likewise, Monday Night home teams, off a SU/ATS win, with a winning record on the season, have gone 67-28 ATS vs. non-division foes. And, finally, the Redskins have had very little success on Monday Night Football, as they've gone 16-36-1 ATS since 1980, including 2-15 ATS if they covered their previous game by more than 11 points. Take New Orleans. Good luck, as always.....Al McMordie. |
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10-08-18 | Red Sox +165 v. Yankees | Top | 16-1 | Win | 165 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over the New York Yankees. David Price experienced another post-season meltdown on Saturday, leaving Game 2 of the ALDS to a chorus of Fenway boos after only 1 2/3 innings. Now the series shifts to the Bronx knotted up at a game apiece. Boston will turn to RHP Nathan Eovaldi while the Yanks will send out their ace who pitched in the Wild Card Game last Wednesday, RHP Luis Severino. Eovaldi's numbers since joining the Sox don't leap off the page at you, but he made quite an impression with Boston fans when he held the Yanks to three hits in eight shutout innings in his second start with the team. Eovaldi hasn't allowed a run to New York in 16 innings since his mid-season trade from Tampa. But this will be his most important start, not only with the Sox, but probably of his career so far as it marks his first playoff action. The Yanks held the high-powered Boston lineup to just two runs on Saturday, but that's not necessarily a bad thing for the Sox as they are 6-1 in their last seven after scoring two runs or less in their previous game. And they're also 11-6 as a road underdog of +150 or more (+12 games on the money line). Take Boston. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-07-18 | Dodgers v. Braves +165 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 165 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the Los Angeles Dodgers. The first playoff game at Atlanta's Sun Trust Park could also be the last game of their season. The Braves are down 2-0 in this series and have yet to score a run thanks to some pretty dominant Dodger pitching. But the home crowd should be amped up tonight so expect the young stars of Atlanta's lineup to respond accordingly. It may be LHP Sean Newcomb's first-ever post-season start (he pitched two scoreless innings of relief in game one) but at age 25 and in his second season, he's actually the veteran of this match-up. 24-year-old RH Walker Buehler also pitches in his first MLB playoff game for the Dodgers. One thing Newcomb can use as motivation is the fact that in his last start against this Dodger club -- back on July 29 -- he almost no-hit them, coming within one out from doing so in a dominant performance that resulted in a 4-1 Braves win. That performance was right here in Atlanta and no doubt Newcomb will take a repeat of that tonight. Take the Braves. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-07-18 | Brewers v. Rockies -150 | Top | 6-0 | Loss | -150 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
At 4:35 pm, our selection is on the Colorado Rockies over the Milwaukee Brewers. The Brewers have taken a commanding 2-0 lead in this NLDS and need just one win in the next three games to advance. But the Rockies can take some satisfaction in that each of the first two games was close , and both could have easily gone their way. But the main reason for them to be optimistic is the fact that Games 3 and 4 here at home will feature their #1 and #2 starters while the Brewers are much further down in their rotation right now. This afternoon it will be RH German Marquez who broke through in 2018 with a 14-11 record, 3.77 ERA and 230 strikeouts in 196 innings (a 10.7 K rate). Sure, Marquez did most of his best work on the road this season, but that's to be expected. And you won't see it in his overall home numbers, but Marquez finished the season absolutely loving Coors Field. In his last four starts here, Marquez allowed just three earned runs in 27 2/3 innings. And, more importantly for today, the Rockies went 4-0 in those starts (by an astounding combined score of 42-5). Finally, Colorado's 40-20 (+10 games on the money line) as a home favorite this season. Take Colorado. MLB Game of the Week! As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-07-18 | Raiders v. Chargers UNDER 53 | Top | 10-26 | Win | 100 | 57 h 23 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our NFL Total of the Month is on the 'under' in the Los Angeles Chargers/Oakland Raiders game. This season, the Oakland Raiders' games have averaged 55 points per game (24.25 offense; 30.75 defense), while the Chargers' games have averaged 57.75 points (27.75 offense; 30 defense). The knee-jerk reaction, then, might be to play the 'over' in this contest, but consider that games with Over/Under lines greater than 41 points, between two teams that each average 22.8 ppg, have gone 'under' the total 194 of 337 games, if one or both of the teams have gone 'over' the total in each of their three previous games, including a perfect 5-0 'under' last season. The 'under' has gone 24-6-1 the last 31 times the Raiders have visited the Chargers. Take the 'under.' NFL Total of the Month. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-07-18 | Ravens v. Browns +3 | Top | 9-12 | Win | 110 | 7 h 25 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns + the points over Baltimore. The Ravens have won the last five games in this series, but that win streak should end this afternoon. Indeed, this is a horrid scheduling spot for Baltimore. Last week, it went into Pittsburgh, and upset its division rival, 26-14, as a 3-point underdog. Now, it has to play a second straight road game, and also against a division rival. Unfortunately, NFL teams favored against a division foe are an awful 69-96-5 ATS off an upset win on the road vs. a division foe, including 34-57 ATS vs. revenge-minded foes. Take Cleveland. NFL Payback Payday. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-06-18 | Liberty v. New Mexico State +4.5 | Top | 41-49 | Win | 100 | 28 h 42 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the New Mexico State Aggies + the points over Liberty. The Aggies had last week off following their road win at UTEP two weeks ago. Meanwhile, the Flames are 2-2 this season with an upset win in their opener vs. Old Dominion, and a 52-43 road upset win at the New Mexico Lobos last weekend. The Flames were a 7-point underdog last week, and one of the things I love to do is go against .500 (or worse) teams in back-to-back road games, if they won as a 7-point (or greater) underdog the previous week, and were playing a rested opponent. Since 1980, our road teams have cashed just 37%. Take New Mexico State + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-06-18 | UTSA +1 v. Rice | Top | 20-3 | Win | 100 | 27 h 42 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Texas San Antonio Roadrunners over Rice. The Roadrunners have yet to cash a ticket in Las Vegas this season, but it's not because they've been playing exceptionally poorly. Rather, their games were mostly point spread coin-flips that just happened to result in losses. Indeed, the Roadrunners failed to cover their last four games by 1, 3, 3.5 and 0.5 points (an average of 2 points per game). So, while some will stay away from the Roadrunners for their lack of point spread success, I'm not concerned. Meanwhile, the Rice Owls have been installed as a small favorite, even though they were underdogs of +25, +17, +13.5 and +28 points in their four games vs. Division 1 foes this season. And teams that were favored (or PK) at home vs. conference foes off a win, after being double-digit underdogs in each of their three previous game, have cashed just 37% the past 38 years. Take the Roadrunners. |
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10-06-18 | Old Dominion v. Florida Atlantic -13 | Top | 33-52 | Win | 100 | 25 h 43 m | Show |
At 5 pm, our selection is on the Florida Atlantic Owls minus the points over Old Dominion. The Owls lost a heartbreaker last week when Middle Tennessee scored a touchdown (and a subsequent 2-point conversion) on a 4th-and-goal play with less than a minute left in the game. That lowered the Owls' road record this season to 0-3, but it returns home this weekend, where it is undefeated on the season (with wins over Air Force and Bethune-Cookman). Here, Florida Atlantic will welcome Old Dominion, which is 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS on the road this season, with a negative 15.67 scoring margin, and a negative 15.5 point spread differential. That doesn't bode well for Old Dominion. And neither does the fact that Conference USA favorites of -8.5 (or more) points are an awesome 31-10 ATS off an upset loss. Finally, Florida Atlantic falls into 71-29 and 81-32 ATS systems of mine that go against certain conference foes with a losing record. Take the Owls. |
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10-06-18 | New Mexico +8 v. UNLV | Top | 50-14 | Win | 100 | 41 h 57 m | Show |
At 4 pm, our selection is on the New Mexico Lobos + the points over UNLV. Last week, the Lobos were upset, 52-43, at home by the Liberty Flames. So, they'll look to bounce back on Saturday afternoon in their Mountain West Conference opener. Since 1980, road underdogs off an upset loss the previous week have covered 67.8% in their conference openers. Both of these teams are saddled with injuries at the quarterback position. UNLV, though, should suffer more by losing Armani Rogers, than will New Mexico for its injuries. The Rebels' top QB has excelled this season, with 857 combined yards and 12 TDs (369 passing yards, 488 rushing yards). He'll be replaced by sophomore Max Gilliam, who doesn't have Rogers' explosive speed to make big plays. In contrast, New Mexico's Sheriron Jones might be the Lobos' 3rd string QB, but he was great last week in relief. The Lobos were down 42-10 at the half to Liberty, but he threw for 312 yards and four TDs in slightly more than 30 minutes of action to bring the Lobos back in an eventual 9-point loss. New Mexico has also cashed 75% over the last 38 years off an upset home loss. Take the Lobos. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-06-18 | LSU v. Florida +3 | Top | 19-27 | Win | 100 | 38 h 26 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Florida Gators + the points over LSU. I love playing on home underdogs with great defenses. For the season, Florida has held its opponents to just 14 points per game. And home underdogs, at Game 6 forward, that have a defense which doesn't give up more than 14 ppg have gone 45-22 ATS vs. undefeated teams. That's one reason I favor the Gators. Another is that undefeated teams, with a 5-0 (or better) record have cashed just 64 of 159 vs. .666 (or better) foes. Take Florida. NCAA Game of the Week. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-06-18 | Miami-OH +5 v. Akron | Top | 41-17 | Win | 100 | 37 h 55 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Miami-Ohio Red Hawks + the points over Akron. The Red Hawks have covered 12 of 16 conference road games, including a 38-23 blowout win at Bowling Green two weeks ago. Last Saturday, though, Miami lost a 1-point game, at home, to Western Michigan. But I love the Red Hawks to bounce back on the road on Saturday, as road teams have cashed 65.3% in Mid American Conference games off a single-digit home loss the previous week. Take Miami-Ohio + the points. Underdog Shocker! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-06-18 | San Diego State +14 v. Boise State | Top | 19-13 | Win | 100 | 36 h 2 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the San Diego State Aztecs + the points over Boise State. The Aztecs have won three straight, and had last weekend off to prepare for this big Mountain West game at Boise State. Last season, Boise went 7-1 inside the Conference and won the title game. San Diego State was 6-2, including a 31-14 upset loss, at home. So, this is a big revenge game for the Aztecs. Since 1999, rested Mountain West conference teams have cashed 75.8% away from home when playing with revenge vs. conference foes, including a perfect 7-0 ATS when getting 12+ points. That bodes well for San Diego St. Also, it's true that Boise has been generally very strong against the spread over the years. But the reality is that it has beat up on the really bad teams (e.g., 58-35 ATS vs. losing teams), or teams playing poorly (e.g., 51-21 ATS vs. foes off a SU/ATS loss), while it has done comparatively worse vs. better teams. Indeed, Boise has gone 0-12 ATS the last 4 seasons when favored vs. winning teams off a win. Take the Aztecs. NCAA Payback Payday. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie. |
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10-06-18 | Maryland v. Michigan -17 | Top | 21-42 | Win | 100 | 35 h 4 m | Show |
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Michigan Wolverines minus the points over Maryland. The Wolves came back from a 17-0 deficit at Northwestern last week, and eked out a 3-point win. Last week's performance will keep a lot of bettors away from laying double-digits this week with Michigan. Indeed, the current number, as of this writing, has come down from the opener. Generally speaking, it's been profitable to back double-digit favorites that failed to cover the spread by 10+ points as a double digit favorite the previous week, if they were now playing an opponent off a SU/ATS win (which Maryland is). Since 1980, such double-digit favorites have cashed 57%. This will be a rout. Lay the points with Michigan. NCAA High Noon Hanging. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-06-18 | Eastern Michigan +4 v. Western Michigan | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 37 h 59 m | Show |
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Eastern Michigan Eagles + the points over Western Michigan. The Eagles lost a tough game in overtime last week, at home, vs. Northern Illinois. That lowered EMU's Mid-American Conference record to 0-2 on the season. But I love the Eagles to bounce back on Saturday, as NCAA Underdogs of +3 or more points, off an upset conference loss, and an 0-2 conference record, have cashed 61% since 1980. And, although there's nothing wrong with 61%, we can increase our system to 70% if we don't go against any team playing with revenge. In this series, Eastern Michigan has lost the last four meetings. The revenger is 13-7 ATS in this series, and the revenger has also cashed 61% of Mid-American Conference games the past 11 years if it was off a home upset loss. Finally, Eastern Michigan falls into 53-15, 84-48 and 54-21 ATS systems that play on certain teams off losses. Take the Eagles + the points. Mid American Game of the Month. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie. |
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10-06-18 | Tulane v. Cincinnati -7 | Top | 21-37 | Win | 100 | 18 h 56 m | Show |
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Cincy Bearcats minus the points over Tulane. The Green Wave shocked the Memphis Tigers, 40-24, last week as a 14.5-point home underdog to move their record to 2-3 on the season. Unfortunately for Tulane, losing teams rarely pull off two big upsets in a row, and especially not when they're playing on the road against really good teams. Here, Tulane is tasked with handing the Bearcats their first defeat of the season. Cincy is 5-0 straight-up (and 4-1 ATS), including wins over UCLA, Miami-Ohio, Ohio U. and UConn. And, since 1980, underdogs with a losing record have covered the spread just 25% of the time on the road vs. .850 (or better) foes, if they were off an upset win as a 13-point (or greater) underdog. Take Cincinnati. |
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10-06-18 | Oklahoma -7 v. Texas | Top | 45-48 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 55 m | Show |
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Oklahoma Sooners minus the points over Texas. We played on Oklahoma last week, and were rewarded with a 66-33 victory over Baylor. And we also played against Texas, and got the cash with Kansas State, which covered as an 8.5-point underdog. Once again, we will play on Oklahoma and against Texas. The Sooners are averaging a whopping 48.6 ppg, and fall into a super NCAA regular season 'momentum' system of mine. What we want to do is play on any single-digit favorite (or PK) off a SU/ATS win, in which they scored 60+ points, if they are playing a at home, or on a neutral field. Since 1980, this angle has cashed 72%. Take Oklahoma to blow out the Longhorns. |
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10-06-18 | Illinois v. Rutgers +5.5 | Top | 38-17 | Loss | -109 | 18 h 55 m | Show |
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Rutgers Scarlet Knights + the points over Illinois. Illinois has started the season 2-2 straight-up, and 2-2 ATS. Yet this will be its first road game of the season, as it had the huge benefit of opening with four straight home games. I don't like playing on road teams this late in the season, and especially not when installed as a favorite and/or they don't have a winning record. Indeed, since 1980, road favorites, with a .500 (or worse) record, have cashed just 33% of their conference games, if it was Game 5 forward, and also their first road game of the season. Even worse for Illinois: it's been an unreliable favorite, priced from -3 to -10.5 points, with an 18-38 ATS record since 2001. Take Rutgers + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-05-18 | Braves +212 v. Dodgers | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 52 m | Show |
At 9:35 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Braves have relied on their youth movement all season, but now that they're down 1-0 in the NLDS, and in a quasi must-win situation, they will turn to their most experienced starter to get them back in this series. Anibal Sanchez may have only been a member of the team for one season, but he is the only one in the current rotation with multiple seasons of playoff experience. And Sanchez has not only pitched in the post-season, but he's had success there as well. In seven playoff games (six starts), the 34-year-old RH has posted a 2.79 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. Sanchez thrived on the road this season, going 5-2 with a 2.67 ERA in 13 starts away from Atlanta vs. just 2-4, with a 3.00 ERA in 12 home appearances. And Sanchez has been on quite a roll lately, finishing the season with just four runs allowed in his last four starts covering 23 innings. The Braves are 4-1 in Sanchez's last five road starts vs. teams with a winning record, and they are 10-4 in their last 14 road games vs. teams with a winning home record. Take Atlanta. MLB High Roller. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-05-18 | Indians v. Astros -141 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
At 2:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Cleveland Indians. There is no better game one pitching match-up than the one on display this afternoon in Houston. Between them, RH's Corey Kluber (Indians) and Justin Verlander (Astros) have three Cy Youngs (and finished in the top three on three other occasions), one MVP, and one Rookie of the Year. We are being treated to this battle of the Giants courtesy of the fact that both of these teams coasted to the post-season and neither had to play a Wild Card game so they are beginning the playoffs with a re-set rotation. And while nobody would dispute the fact that Kluber is one of the elite pitchers in the game, it's Verlander who has the far-more experienced -- and superior -- post-season resume. In 22 playoff appearances (all but one being starts), the 35-year-old is 11-6 with a 3.07 ERA (vs. 4-2 and 3.54 eight games for Kluber). And lest you think the elder Verlander is slowing down, his post-season run with the Champs last season was arguably his best ever (4-1 with a 2.21 ERA in six games -- five starts). Finally, Verlander hasn't given up an earned run in his last two starts. And his teams are 14-2 the last three years if he didn't give up 2+ earned runs in either of his two previous starts. Take the Astros. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-04-18 | Tulsa v. Houston -17.5 | Top | 26-41 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 18 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Houston Cougars minus the points over Tulsa. The Cougars exploded for 70 points last week, and have scored an average of 52.25 ppg this season. As faithful followers know, I love playing on teams that can score. And home favorites (or PK), off a win in which they scored 50+ points, have gone 572-426-15 ATS since 1980. Houston is 35-20 ATS off a win, while Tulsa is 35-63 ATS off back to back losses. This will be a rout. Lay the points! Good luck, as always....Al McMordie. |
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10-04-18 | Georgia State v. Troy -15 | Top | 20-37 | Win | 100 | 16 h 48 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Troy State Trojans minus the points over Georgia State. Last week, the Georgia State Panthers upset Louisiana-Monroe, 46-14, as a 5.5-point home underdog. But that was the first time (in four games) that the Panthers covered the point spread vs. a Division 1 foe this season. And its upset win has set it up in a negative, 39-103 ATS system of mine which goes against certain road underdogs off upset wins. Meanwhile, Troy State has won (and covered) each of its last four games, including a 45-21 blowout of Coastal Carolina last Saturday. Troy St. has cashed 67% since 2001 vs. foes off a win that had a losing ATS record. And double-digit underdogs, with a losing SU/ATS record, off an upset win, that covered the spread by more than 28 points in their previous game have cashed just 37.9% since 1980. Take Troy to blow out Georgia State. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-01-18 | Chiefs v. Broncos +4.5 | Top | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 16 h 18 m | Show |
At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Denver Broncos + the points over Kansas City. The Chiefs have been the biggest surprise so far this season, as they're 3-0, and have scored 38, 42 and 38 points in their first three contests. KC has also covered the point spread by an average of 9.33 ppg (while Denver has failed to cover by an average of -4 ppg). But such an offensive stretch of games typically leads to a poor performance. Indeed, since 1980, teams off back to back SU/ATS wins, in which they scored more than 30 points in each victory, have covered just 79 of 188 games vs. foes off SU/ATS losses, including 0-6 ATS since 2005 on Monday Night Football. Moreover, the Broncos are 30-15-2 ATS as a home underdog (or PK) since 1981, and also 18-3-1 ATS at home vs. foes with a relative pointspread differential of +8.33 or more points, including 9-0 ATS their last nine when not laying 3 or more points. Take Denver. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-30-18 | Seahawks v. Cardinals OVER 39 | Top | 20-17 | Loss | -125 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the 'over' in the Seattle/Arizona game. The Seattle Seahawks have played their last two games 'under' the total, while Arizona's gone 'under' in each of its last three games. But we will run the other way, and look for a relatively high-scoring game on Sunday. Indeed, Seattle has gone 'over' the total EIGHT STRAIGHT times off back to back Unders, while Arizona had gone 'over' the total in seven of its last eight (and 16 of its last 21) games after going 'under' in its last three games. That's one reason, I like the 'over' in this game. Another is that the 'over' falls into a Totals System of mine which has cashed 114 of 174 since 1980. Take the 'over.' NFL Total of the Week. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-30-18 | Braves -128 v. Phillies | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -128 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
At 3:05 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the Philadelphia Phillies. The 10 teams who will be playing baseball in October are now settled. However, in the National League, all five teams are incentivized to win on this final scheduled day of the regular season. And that's because the Cubs and Brewers are tied for first place in the NL Central, with 94-67 records. And the Dodgers and Rockies are tied for first place in the NL West, with 90-71 records. Meanwhile, Atlanta, which has already sewn up first place in the NL East, is tied with both the Dodgers and Rockies (at 90-71) for the 2nd overall seed in the National League Playoffs, and the eventual home field advantage which comes with that seeding. Thus, this game is very important to the Braves this afternoon. Atlanta will hand the ball to RHP Kevin Gausman, whose last start was also against these Phillies. Gausman pitched 6 1-3 innings, and allowed three runs in that game -- an 8-3 Braves victory. Meanwhile, the Phillies will start Ranger Suarez, who hasn't started a game since August 16, when he gave up 11 hits and 4 runs in 4 innings vs. the Mets -- a 24-4 Mets win. The Braves have won six of the last seven vs. the Phillies, and 49 of 74 division games (+27 games on the moneyline) overall this season, while Philly has won just seven of its previous 27 games, and is also a poor 25-43 after scoring 3 runs or less in back to back games. Take Atlanta. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-30-18 | Texans +1.5 v. Colts | Top | 37-34 | Win | 100 | 34 h 36 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Houston Texans over the Indianapolis Colts. The Texans are 0-3 straight-up and ATS this season. But Indianapolis isn't much better, as it's won just once this season. And one of the things I love to do is play on winless SU/ATS teams, at Game 4 forward, on the road, as underdogs (or PK) vs. losing teams. Our winless teams have covered 65.5% since 1980 in this situation, so that bodes very well for Houston on Sunday. Moreover, Houston lost last week, at home, as a 6.5-point favorite. And road underdogs (or PK) off an upset home loss, as a 6.5 point (or bigger) favorite, have covered 58% over the last 38 years. Take Houston. NFL Division Game of the Year. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie. |
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09-30-18 | Bills v. Packers -9 | Top | 0-22 | Win | 100 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Green Bay Packers minus the points over Buffalo. Last week, the Bills pulled off the biggest upset in 23 years, as they won outright as a 16.5-point underdog at Minnesota. The last team to achieve such a victory was Washington, back in 1995, when it upset Dallas, 24-17, as a 17.5-point dog. But what was most impressive wasn't that Buffalo won, it was that it won by 21 points. Unfortunately, I don't think it will win back-to-back games. Indeed, since 1980, teams off upset wins as double-digit road underdogs have gone 56-80 ATS in their next game, including 17-33 ATS if they were playing back-to-back road games. And the Packers have gone 47-25 ATS at home with Aaron Rodgers as their starting quarterback, including 14-2 ATS vs. opponents off a road win. Take Green Bay. |
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09-30-18 | Dolphins v. Patriots -6.5 | Top | 7-38 | Win | 100 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots minus the points over Miami. The Dolphins have sprinted out to a 3-0 start this season, while New England is lagging behind with a 1-2 record. But I believe the Dolphins will come back down to earth on Sunday. Indeed, since 2002, there have been 15 undefeated teams, with a record of 3-0 or better that have been installed as an underdog of +5 or more points. Those 15 teams have gone 1-14 straight-up, and 5-9-1 ATS. Also, the Patriots have gone 8-0 straight-up, and 7-1 ATS since November 2002 when they were off back to back losses. Finally, home teams have cashed 37 of 54 off upset losses on the road, if their opponent was off three SU/ATS wins. Take New England. |
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09-30-18 | Lions v. Cowboys -2.5 | Top | 24-26 | Loss | -113 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Cowboys minus the points over the Detroit Lions. Matt Patricia's Lions upset his former team -- the New England Patriots -- as a 7-point underdog last Sunday night. However, teams that pull off such big upsets rarely win back to back games in the underdog role. In fact, since 1980, road underdogs have cashed just 42% off a home underdog outright win as a 7-point (or bigger) dog. And Detroit's a poor 28-56-3 ATS on the road off a win. Take Dallas. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie. |
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09-29-18 | Ohio State v. Penn State +4 | Top | 27-26 | Win | 100 | 70 h 46 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Penn State Nittany Lions + the points over Ohio State. This is a rematch of last year's game, when the Nittany Lions also entered it undefeated, but were handed their first loss, 39-38, by the Buckeyes. This season, the stakes are just as high, as both teams are unbeaten after four games. After squeaking by Appalachian State in its opener, Penn State has demolished its last three opponents. It's won its last three games by a combined 177-40, and has covered the spread by an average of 22.16 ppg. In contrast, the Buckeyes, who have won their last three games by a combined 141-37, have only had a point spread differential of + 6.5 ppg in their last three. Unfortunately, for Ohio State, teams playing away from home have gone 0-15 SU/ATS against a revenge-minded foe which scored 122+ points in its two previous games, if our road team didn't score 100+ points in its two previous games. Even worse for the Buckeyes: home dogs of +2.5 (or more) points, that average more than 29.5 ppg on offense, off back-to-back wins, have gone 236-164 ATS. Over the last 3 seasons, Penn State is 13-1 ATS off back-to-back wins, and has covered by an average of 10.66 ppg. Take the Nittany Lions. Big 10 Game of the Year. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-29-18 | Florida Atlantic -3 v. Middle Tennessee State | Top | 24-25 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 25 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Florida Atlantic Owls minus the points over Middle Tennessee State. The Owls are 2-2 this year, with 2 home wins and 2 road losses. This will be the Owls' 3rd road game of the season. However, in their first two road games they played Oklahoma (currently ranked #6) and Central Florida (currently ranked #13). This road game will be much easier, as Middle Tennessee is unranked, and has nowhere near the talent level of those two other schools. The Owls have been installed as a small favorite in this game. And since November 12, 2016, Florida Atlantic has had a sharp dichotomy in how its performed as a favorite or an underdog. Indeed, the Owls are 14-0 straight-up (9-4-1 ATS) as a favorite, compared to 0-7 straight-up (1-6 ATS) as an underdog. Take the Owls. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-29-18 | UTEP v. UTSA -10 | Top | 21-30 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 21 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Texas San Antonio Roadrunners minus the points over Texas El Paso. On the surface, it might look difficult to play on Texas San Antonio, given that it's 0-4 ATS this season. But the Roadrunners fall into a 65% ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off ATS losses. Meanwhile, UTEP has been the worst team in College Football since last season. It's now lost its last 16 games, straight-up, and is 2-23 SU and 6-17-2 ATS its last 25 lined games. Take the Roadrunners minus the points. |
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09-29-18 | Florida v. Mississippi State -7 | Top | 13-6 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 29 m | Show |
At 6 pm, our selection is on the Mississippi State Bulldogs minus the points over Florida. Last week, Mississippi State was upset, 28-7, as a double-digit favorite at Kentucky, while Florida won, 47-21, as a 4.5-point favorite at Tennessee. The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the Gators as a touchdown underdog, given that it covered by more than 21 points, while Mississippi State failed to cover last week by 31 points. However, underdogs of 7 or more points off a cover by 21 or more points have cashed just 38% over the last 30 years vs. opponents off a point spread loss by 21 or more points. That's one reason I favor the Bulldogs. Another is that teams off an upset conference loss by 18 or more points, have covered just 24 of 78 conference games since 1980 vs. foes off a straight-up and against the spread win. This will be a rout. Lay the points with the Bulldogs. SEC Conference Favorite of the Month! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-29-18 | Northern Illinois v. Eastern Michigan -3 | Top | 26-23 | Loss | -118 | 14 h 26 m | Show |
At 6 pm, our selection is on the Eastern Michigan Eagles minus the points over Northern Illinois. The Eagles have lost 10 straight games in this series, but have been installed as the favorite. And I love them to finally break through with a win vs. the Huskies, as they fall into a 43-16 ATS system of mine which plays on certain favored teams playing with revenge. Even better: the Eagles have continued to "pay off" in Vegas this season, as they're 3-1 ATS this year, and 20-8 ATS dating back to November 27, 2015 (including 12-2 ATS off a straight-up loss). This will also be the Eagles' first home game after three straight road games. In their only other home game this season, they won 51-17, as a 22.5-point favorite vs. Monmouth. They didn't find the same success away from home, as they went 1-2 SU (but 2-1 ATS). However, I expect them to blow out Northern Illinois, which is 0-5 SU/ATS its last five games away from home. Lay the points. |
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09-29-18 | Baylor v. Oklahoma -23.5 | Top | 33-66 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm our selection is on the Oklahoma Sooners minus the points over Baylor. The Sooners have started this season perfectly, as they're 4-0. But they have failed to cover the point spread for their last three straight games. They'll try to get back into the win column "in Vegas" vs. Baylor this Saturday. Baylor comes into Norman off a 26-7 win over Kansas last week. And we'll lay the points with the Sooners, as undefeated teams, with a 4-0 (or better) record, off three ATS losses, have covered 60% since 1980 vs. foes off a win. Take Oklahoma. |
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09-29-18 | Texas v. Kansas State +8.5 | Top | 19-14 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Kansas State Wildcats + the points over the Texas Longhorns. Last week, the Longhorns upset TCU, 31-16, as a 2.5-point home underdog. But off that win, we will fade the Longhorns at Kansas State. This will actually be the Longhorns first true road game, played on an opponent's home field, this season. And Texas falls into negative 11-41 and 7-29 ATS systems of mine that go against certain teams, off upset wins, playing on the road vs. conference foes. Additionally, Kansas State is an awesome 27-6 ATS in conference games off a loss by 20 or more points. Finally, Big 12 Conference teams have cashed just 42% as road favorites off an upset win since 1980. Take the Wildcats + the points. Big 12 Conference Game of the Month. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-29-18 | South Alabama v. Appalachian State -25 | Top | 7-52 | Win | 100 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Appalachian State Mountaineers minus the points over South Alabama. Appy State exploded for 72 points last week, and has covered each of its first three games this season. The Mountaineers are averaging 51.67 points this season, and I love playing on teams that score a lot of points. Indeed, since 1980, NCAA teams have covered the spread 60% in Game 4, if they averaged 50+ points in their first three games, including 71% if they were favored by 25 points or more. And double-digit favorites, after scoring 70+ points in a home win which they covered by 10+ points, have gone 30-11 ATS since 1980. It's true that South Alabama covered a big number at Memphis last week when it was a 31.5-point dog, and only lost by 17. But the Jaguars are a awful 1-12 ATS their last 13 off a point spread win, including 0-8 ATS as an underdog. Take Appalachian State. |
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09-29-18 | Coastal Carolina v. Troy -14 | Top | 21-45 | Win | 100 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Troy State Trojans minus the points over Coastal Carolina. The Chanticleers upset Louisiana-Lafayette, 30-28, on the road last week, as a 3-point underdog. And they also won and covered at Campbell the previous week. Unfortunately, they now are tasked with playing their third straight road game. And teams off back-to-back SU/ATS road wins, off an upset win, have covered just 37% since 1980 if they were playing their 3rd straight road game. Lay the points with Troy State. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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Big Al McMordie ALL Sports Top Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
10-12-18 | Air Force v. San Diego State -10.5 | Top | 17-21 | Loss | -118 | 46 h 39 m | Show |
10-12-18 | Dodgers -150 v. Brewers | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -150 | 7 h 40 m | Show |
10-11-18 | Eagles -2.5 v. Giants | Top | 34-13 | Win | 100 | 22 h 50 m | Show |
10-08-18 | Redskins v. Saints -6 | Top | 19-43 | Win | 100 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
10-08-18 | Red Sox +165 v. Yankees | Top | 16-1 | Win | 165 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
10-07-18 | Dodgers v. Braves +165 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 165 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
10-07-18 | Brewers v. Rockies -150 | Top | 6-0 | Loss | -150 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
10-07-18 | Raiders v. Chargers UNDER 53 | Top | 10-26 | Win | 100 | 57 h 23 m | Show |
10-07-18 | Ravens v. Browns +3 | Top | 9-12 | Win | 110 | 7 h 25 m | Show |
10-06-18 | Liberty v. New Mexico State +4.5 | Top | 41-49 | Win | 100 | 28 h 42 m | Show |
10-06-18 | UTSA +1 v. Rice | Top | 20-3 | Win | 100 | 27 h 42 m | Show |
10-06-18 | Old Dominion v. Florida Atlantic -13 | Top | 33-52 | Win | 100 | 25 h 43 m | Show |
10-06-18 | New Mexico +8 v. UNLV | Top | 50-14 | Win | 100 | 41 h 57 m | Show |
10-06-18 | LSU v. Florida +3 | Top | 19-27 | Win | 100 | 38 h 26 m | Show |
10-06-18 | Miami-OH +5 v. Akron | Top | 41-17 | Win | 100 | 37 h 55 m | Show |
10-06-18 | San Diego State +14 v. Boise State | Top | 19-13 | Win | 100 | 36 h 2 m | Show |
10-06-18 | Maryland v. Michigan -17 | Top | 21-42 | Win | 100 | 35 h 4 m | Show |
10-06-18 | Eastern Michigan +4 v. Western Michigan | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 37 h 59 m | Show |
10-06-18 | Tulane v. Cincinnati -7 | Top | 21-37 | Win | 100 | 18 h 56 m | Show |
10-06-18 | Oklahoma -7 v. Texas | Top | 45-48 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 55 m | Show |
10-06-18 | Illinois v. Rutgers +5.5 | Top | 38-17 | Loss | -109 | 18 h 55 m | Show |
10-05-18 | Braves +212 v. Dodgers | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 52 m | Show |
10-05-18 | Indians v. Astros -141 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
10-04-18 | Tulsa v. Houston -17.5 | Top | 26-41 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 18 m | Show |
10-04-18 | Georgia State v. Troy -15 | Top | 20-37 | Win | 100 | 16 h 48 m | Show |
10-01-18 | Chiefs v. Broncos +4.5 | Top | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 16 h 18 m | Show |
09-30-18 | Seahawks v. Cardinals OVER 39 | Top | 20-17 | Loss | -125 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
09-30-18 | Braves -128 v. Phillies | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -128 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
09-30-18 | Texans +1.5 v. Colts | Top | 37-34 | Win | 100 | 34 h 36 m | Show |
09-30-18 | Bills v. Packers -9 | Top | 0-22 | Win | 100 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
09-30-18 | Dolphins v. Patriots -6.5 | Top | 7-38 | Win | 100 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
09-30-18 | Lions v. Cowboys -2.5 | Top | 24-26 | Loss | -113 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
09-29-18 | Ohio State v. Penn State +4 | Top | 27-26 | Win | 100 | 70 h 46 m | Show |
09-29-18 | Florida Atlantic -3 v. Middle Tennessee State | Top | 24-25 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 25 m | Show |
09-29-18 | UTEP v. UTSA -10 | Top | 21-30 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 21 m | Show |
09-29-18 | Florida v. Mississippi State -7 | Top | 13-6 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 29 m | Show |
09-29-18 | Northern Illinois v. Eastern Michigan -3 | Top | 26-23 | Loss | -118 | 14 h 26 m | Show |
09-29-18 | Baylor v. Oklahoma -23.5 | Top | 33-66 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
09-29-18 | Texas v. Kansas State +8.5 | Top | 19-14 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
09-29-18 | South Alabama v. Appalachian State -25 | Top | 7-52 | Win | 100 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
09-29-18 | Coastal Carolina v. Troy -14 | Top | 21-45 | Win | 100 | 12 h 45 m | Show |