Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
07-22-23 | Giants -182 v. Nationals | Top | 1-10 | Loss | -182 | 15 h 26 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Giants over the Washington Nationals. The Giants dropped their 3rd straight game last night when Washington upset them, 5-3, behind Jake Irvin. Tonight, the pitching matchup will feature Josiah Gray for the Nats vs. Logan Webb for the Giants. We'll take San Francisco, as it's 39-14 with Webb on the mound when favored (including a spectacular 17-1 when priced from -175 to -250). And it's also 4-0 behind Webb when facing the Nationals. And in those four starts vs. Washington, Webb has a stellar 2.78 ERA, including 1 run over 7 innings, in a 4-1 victory earlier this season. Meanwhile, Washington is a wallet-breaking 42-87 (minus 29.0 net games) at home. Take San Francisco. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
07-22-23 | Blue Jays -135 v. Mariners | Top | 8-9 | Loss | -135 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Seattle Mariners. Last night, the Seattle Mariners won, 3-2, vs. Yusei Kikuchi and the Blue Jays. This afternoon, Seattle will try to hand the Jays their 2nd straight defeat, but will have a taller task in front of it, given that the Jays will start their ace, Kevin Gausman. The veteran righty has a 3.03 ERA in 19 starts this season. And that bodes well for Toronto, as Seattle is a horrid 1-11 vs. American League starting pitchers with ERAs below 3.70. Gausman has made nine starts vs. the Mariners in his career, including seven shutout innings earlier this season, in which he struck out 13, en route to a 1-0 triumph. Overall, Gausman's ERA in those 13 career starts vs. Seattle is a super 2.68, with a 1.12 WHIP. Meanwhile, his mound opponent today will be Logan Gilbert, whose ERA in his three career starts vs. Toronto is an ugly 6.35. Take the Blue Jays. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
07-21-23 | Orioles v. Rays -148 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 17 h 48 m | Show |
At 6:40 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Baltimore Orioles. No series will get more attention this weekend than this four game set between the Orioles and Rays. With the extra-innings victory last night, Baltimore took over the outright lead in the AL East Division for the first time this late in the season since 2016. Game 2 tonight could be another close one with Kyle Bradish set to start against Zach Eflin. Tampa has pretty much resurrected Eflin's career as the 29-year-old RH had a 36-45 record with a 4.49 ERA in seven seasons with the Phillies before coming to the Rays in 2023. So far in his first season in Tampa, Eflin is 10-5 with a 3.59 ERA in 18 starts covering just over 105 innings. Most important for tonight is that Eflin will be starting his 11th game at home where he has been almost unbeatable -- leading the Rays to a 10-1 record -- with a 2.34 ERA in just under 62 innings. The Rays are 26-6 in their last 32 games as a home favorite of at least -150 as well as 17-5 in their last 22 home meetings with the Orioles over the past three seasons. Take Tampa. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|
|||||||
07-21-23 | Rockies v. Marlins -225 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -225 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
At 6:40 pm, our selection is on the Miami Marlins over the Colorado Rockies. No team is happier to be returning home from a road trip than the Marlins this weekend. In two tough series, the Fish were swept by both the Orioles in Baltimore and Cardinals in St. Louis, resulting in their current six-game losing streak. They have done by far their best work here at LoanDepot Park this season where they are 30-18 (vs. just 13-27 on the road). They will send LHP Braxton Garrett to the mound for his 19th start of the season. In 19 games -- 18 starts -- the 25-year-old southpaw is 5-2 with a 3.90 ERA and 1.16 WHIP with 106 strikeouts in 97 innings. He could cause some serious problems tonight for the Rockies who are hitting just .232 with a .667 OPS as a team vs. lefties this season. Garrett has a 3.29 ERA in three career starts vs. Colorado and that includes one start at Coors Field. The Marlins are 14-4 in Braxton's starts this season, including winning eight of his last nine going back to the end of May. Take Miami. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|
|||||||
07-20-23 | Diamondbacks v. Braves -179 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
At 12:20 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the Arizona Diamondbacks. A wild three-game series between two teams that have been at or near the top of their divisions most of the season will wrap up today in Atlanta. The D-Backs and Braves didn't waste any time getting the big guns out as Tuesday's Game 1 of the series turned out to be the highest scoring game of the season with Arizona prevailing by a 16-13 final score. The D-Backs won again on Wednesday and if they make it three in a row it will be the second time this season that Atlanta has been swept at home. But the D-Backs will first have to get by the newest strikeout king, Spencer Strider. The 24-year-old RH is on track to shatter the 202 Ks he had in his rookie season in 2022 as the fireballer has 176 punch-outs in 110 2/3 IP for a league-leading K-rate of 14.3. He also leads the league with 11 wins -- his grand total from last season. This will be Strider's third time facing Arizona and he's 4-0 in daytime starts so far while the Braves are an incredible 16-3 in Strider's 19 starts this season. Take Atlanta. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|
|||||||
07-19-23 | Astros -146 v. Rockies | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
At 3:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Colorado Rockies. Back in April, if you were going to list the names of starters who were going to get regular turns in the Houston rotation this season, you wouldn't have come up with the name Brandon Bielak. But as they often do, injuries have once again dictated who gets handed the ball every five or six days and for the time being at least, the 27-year-old RH is part of the starting five. And why not? Bielak may not have a winning record (4-5) but he does sport a 3.79 ERA in 11 games -- 10 starts -- covering just over 59 innings. And he seems to be figuring things out, as in the month of July, Bielak sports a 1.50 ERA in two starts covering 12 innings with just six hits allowed. Sure, Coors Field can be a dicey place even for the most talented of pitchers, but Bielak has fared well vs. the Rockies in his career, going 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA in three games against them (two starts). Despite the loss last night the 'Stros are still 7-3 in the last 10 meetings with the Rockies. Take Houston. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|
|||||||
07-18-23 | Diamondbacks v. Braves -197 | Top | 16-13 | Loss | -197 | 19 h 17 m | Show |
At 7:20 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Braves have taken over from the Rays the unofficial title of best team in the Major Leagues. That's not surprising at all as their lineup and their pitching staff are both stacked with quality players and superstars. Atlanta boasts the best ERA in the league -- slightly lower than Tampa's -- and its starting pitching is a combined 38-18 -- also tops in the Majors. One of the many bright spots in the rotation has been the emergence of young star Bryce Elder. The 24-year-old RH is 7-2 with a 2.97 ERA in 18 starts covering 106 innings. Elder looks to rebound from his worst start of the season last time out in Tampa against the Rays (3 1/3 IP, 7 ER). It was a rare clunker for the young Texan who had thrown quality starts in seven of his nine outings prior to that. After a hot start to the season, the D-Backs have been scuffling lately, losing eight of their last 10 coming into this series. Arizona is an ugly 28-74 (-23 games on the moneyline) in its last 102 as a road underdog of +150 or more. Take the Braves. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|
|||||||
07-17-23 | Rays -118 v. Rangers | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -118 | 16 h 20 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Texas Rangers. The top two Division Leaders kick this week off with a big three-game series. Despite not being able to pitch in the All Star Game, LH Shane McClanahan is still probably the leading contender for the AL Cy Young Award as we begin the post-break part of the season. The 26-year-old ace developed a back issue prior to All Star week and the Rays put him on the IL which of course meant he was not available for Tuesday's Classic in Seattle. But McClanahan should play a major role for Tampa in the second half starting with this huge game against the AL West leading Rangers. In 17 starts covering 96 innings, McClanahan is 11-1 with a 2.53 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. He's only faced Texas once in his career, but it was a seven inning victory this past June in which he allowed three runs on only four hits while striking out five Rangers batters. Tampa is 4-1 in the last five meetings with Texas as well as 21-9 in its last 30 games as a road favorite. Take the Rays. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|
|||||||
07-16-23 | Brewers v. Reds -120 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
At 1:40 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Reds over the Milwaukee Brewers. The Brewers have pulled the plug on the Big Red Machine, as Milwaukee won its 3rd straight shutout vs. Cincy with a 3-0 triumph on Saturday. And that followed 1-0 wins on Friday, and the Sunday prior to the All-Star Break. This afternoon, I expect Cincy to get untracked at the plate. After all, Adrian Houser will get the start for the Brew Crew, and he's not the caliber of Freddy Peralta, Corbin Burnes and Wade Miley, who led Milwaukee to those three shutout wins. Houser has made 13 starts in his career vs. Cincy and has a 5.00 ERA in those 13 outings. Even worse, over his last five starts, he's allowed 15 earned runs over 26 1/3 innings, for an ERA of 5.12 and a WHIP of 1.78. Ben Lively will be handed the ball for the Reds, and he's allowed 2 runs or less in six of his eight starts and has a 2.93 ERA over his last three. Take the Reds. Good luck as always...Al McMordie |
|||||||
07-16-23 | White Sox v. Braves -160 | Top | 8-1 | Loss | -160 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
At 1:35 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the Chicago White Sox. Kolby Allard was the 14th overall selection in the 2015 Amateur Draft and to say that he hasn't lived up to his status as a first-round pick would be a huge understatement. In five seasons in the Majors prior to 2023, the 25-year-old LH logged a 9-23 record with an ERA north of five runs. But finally in this, his sixth season, we're starting to see what the Braves perhaps saw when they made that pick eight years ago. In three games -- two starts -- Allard has posted a 4.22 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP with 12 Ks and three BBs in 10 1/3 IP. Speaking of not living up to expectations, many people thought that Dylan Cease would be the AL's best starter after finishing second in the Cy Young voting in 2022 with 14 wins and 227 Ks in 184 IP. But what we've seen is a sub-par performance so far from the 27-year-old as Cease continues to give out far too many free passes to opposing batters (42 BBs in 102 2/3 IP). Despite the loss to the Sox last night, the Braves are 6-1 in the last seven meetings with them. And they're also 17-2 their last 19 at home. Take Atlanta. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|
|||||||
07-15-23 | Brewers v. Reds -113 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -113 | 18 h 17 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Reds over the Milwaukee Brewers. The Reds ended the first half in first place and nine games over .500 and you'd be hard-pressed to convince people that they or their fans thought that was possible. But a loss in the first game back after the break has put the Brewers in a tie with Cincy atop the NL Central and these two will play two more starting with this one. Because he didn't come up to the Majors until June 5 and only had seven starts, rookie LH Andrew Abbott did not make the All Star squad but if the 24-year-old Reds phenom keeps going like he has, he's going to have All Star-type numbers at the end of the season. The young ace is 4-1 with a 2.38 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in just under 42 innings. And wouldn't you know it but in his first start back after the break, Abbott gets a chance at revenge as he lost to this Brewers club in Milwaukee on July 7 in what is so far his only blemish on the season. The Brewers are 1-6 (-6 games on the money line) in RHP Freddy Peralta's seven road starts in 2023. Take the Reds. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|
|||||||
07-14-23 | Yankees -190 v. Rockies | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -190 | 24 h 47 m | Show |
At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Colorado Rockies. The All Star Break got the Yankees five days closer to getting back their most valuable player, OF Aaron Judge. Judge has been out since early June with a toe injury but all indications are that he is very close to a return -- possibly within the next week or so. Meanwhile, the Yanks did have some good news right before the break as LHP Carlos Rodon returned from his injury and pitched his first game in Pinstripes. Rodon may have taken the loss in the 3-0 defeat to the Cubs on July 7, but just seeing the Yanks' #1 off-season pitching acquisition on the mound for the first time must have given the whole team a lift. You can expect that Rodon will take a step forward tonight even though he's pitching in a tough place in New York's first visit to Coors Field in over seven years. In four career starts vs. the Rox, Rodon is 2-1 with a 4.22 ERA and 1.08 WHIP with 31 strikeouts and six walks in 21 1/3 innings. In 25 inter-league games (24 starts), Rodon is 12-9 with a 3.67 ERA. Take the Yankees. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
07-09-23 | Blue Jays -123 v. Tigers | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
At 1:40 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Detroit Tigers. It's been a rough first half of the season for the Tigers, but the team gave the home fans something to cheer about on Saturday. In the "where the heck did that come from" department, three Detroit pitchers registered the first combined no-hitter in the Tigers franchise history (the 20th combined no-hitter in MLB history). They'll look to keep the magic going today in the final game before the All Star break and it will be LH Tarik Skubal's second trip to the mound since returning from major elbow surgery. The Jays will go with RH Chris Bassitt in his 19th start of the season. The 34-year-old has had an up-and-down first half and he would like nothing better than to go into the break on a high note. Bassitt has been very good over his career here at Comerica Park, going 3-1 with a 2.49 ERA in four starts covering just over 25 innings. He'll look to extend that success this afternoon. The Jays are 6-1 in their last seven road games. Take Toronto. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|
|||||||
07-09-23 | Braves v. Rays -118 | Top | 4-10 | Win | 100 | 3 h 38 m | Show |
At 1:40 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Atlanta Braves. We played on Zach Eflin and the Rays in his last start, but he was outdueled by Aaron Nola in a 3-1 defeat. We'll come right back with Eflin this afternoon vs. Atlanta and Bryce Elder. Tampa's 51-22 (+16.6 net games) as a favorite this season, and 62-25 (+26.3 net games) in daytime home games. And it's 21-7 after scoring 2 runs or less in back-to-back games. Meanwhile, the Braves are a soft 10-20 (minus 15.6 net games) on the road following back to back games where they gave up less than 4 runs in each. Eflin's teams have won six of his last seven starts vs. Atlanta, and he has a career ERA of 3.26 vs. the Braves (in 13 starts). Take Tampa. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
07-08-23 | Cubs v. Yankees -173 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Chicago Cubs. Some of the 2023 All Star selections are a bit of a surprise. But one choice that was expected is Yankees' RHP Gerrit Cole, who punched his ticket to his sixth straight Mid-Summer Classic (seventh overall). And with Ohtani and McClanahan unavailable to pitch, don't be surprised if the 32-year-old is chosen as the AL Starter. But this afternoon he will be focused on the Cubs, who beat the Yanks in the first game of this series on Friday. Cole has plenty of past experience vs. Chicago from his days with the Pirates -- and it's mostly very good. In 15 starts vs. the Cubs, Cole is 10-3 with a 2.53 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. And those 10 wins are the most that he has logged against any team in the Majors. Cole is also an interleague machine, having gone 23-8 with a 2.91 ERA in 41 starts vs. teams from the opposite league. Despite their win yesterday, the Cubs are just 4-14 in the last 18 meetings with the Yankees and 2-8 in the last 10 here in the Bronx. Take New York. As always, good luck...Al McMordie
|
|||||||
07-07-23 | Pirates v. Diamondbacks -225 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 17 h 12 m | Show |
At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Diamondbacks over the Pittsburgh Pirates. Not that long ago, any discussion of the best starters in the NL West would start with the names Kershaw, Bumgarner, Darvish, and Urias. But in 2023 that discussion must begin with the name Zac Gallen. The veteran RH might not only be the best in his Division, but you'd be hard-pressed to find a better starter in the NL right now. Gallen leads the league with 10 wins and his 120 strikeouts is near the top as is his 5.22 K:BB ratio. Gallen was named an All Star for the first time in his career and don't be surprised if he is chosen as the starting pitcher for the NL. He gets his league-leading 19th start tonight and it comes against a Pirates team that has been a pleasant surprise despite its 40-46 record. It's a revenge game for Gallen as his worst start of the season was on May 19 in Pittsburgh when he allowed eight runs (five earned) on eight hits in 3 2/3 innings in a 13-3 drubbing. Arizona has won five of the last seven meetings and the D-Backs are 5-1 in Gallen's last six starts. Take Arizona. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|
|||||||
07-06-23 | Blue Jays -120 v. White Sox | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, in Game 2 of the Double Header, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Chicago White Sox. At the ripe age of 32, Yusei Kikuchi is having his best season yet as a Major League pitcher. The veteran southpaw came into the league in 2019 after playing in the Japanese professional league since his early 20's. Kikuchi has never had a winning season in the Majors, but heading into his last start before the All Star break he is 7-3 with career-bests in ERA (4.08), WHIP (1.27), and K:BB ratio (3.41). Those are not All Star numbers, but Kikuchi is trending in the right direction, having gone 1-0 with a 2.28 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in five starts in the month of June. In two previous starts at Guaranteed Rate Field, Kikuchi is 1-0 with a 4.22 ERA, and he's 2-1 overall in his career vs. the White Sox. Heading into Thursday, the Jays are 8-2 in the last 10 meetings with the Sox. Take the Jays in Game 2. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|
|||||||
07-05-23 | Mariners v. Giants -152 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Giants over the Seattle Mariners. Baseball fans in Seattle are no doubt thrilled to have the All Star festivities coming to their city in less than a week. After all, it's the first Mid-summer classic to be held here since 2001 when T-Mobile Park -- then called Safeco Field -- was just two years old. But whether the fans are thrilled with the current state of the Mariners remains to be seen. They can't be all that happy about a .500 record and fourth place standing in the Division -- eight games back -- at the mid-way point of the season. They have won four straight however coming into the third game of this series with the Giants following yesterday's 6-0 win. Unfortunately, though, Seattle's 19-22 (minus 10.2 net games) off a win this season, while the Giants are 6-1 off a shutout loss. Hoping to get the call for his first All Star game, Giants RH Alex Cobb was disappointed to see his name not on the list of NL pitchers. The 35-year-old veteran does have a 5-2 record, with a 3.12 ERA in 15 starts, so he could still be added as a replacement since his numbers are certainly worthy. Cobb is also 12-9 with a 2.70 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 30 career inter-league starts. Take San Francisco. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|
|||||||
07-04-23 | Phillies v. Rays -107 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Philadelphia Phillies. RHP Zach Eflin was drafted by the Padres in in 2012, then traded to the Dodgers and then finally to the Phillies in 2014. Once in Philadelphia, Elfin spent seven seasons pitching for the Phils until he was granted free agency after the 2022 season. The Rays picked him up and signed him to a three-year contract and Eflin has already made that contract look like a bargain with a 9-3 record and 3.29 ERA in 15 starts covering 90 1/3 innings. Not surprisingly, this afternoon will be Eflin's first start against his old team as the Phillies come to St. Pete for a three-game set. In 25 inter-league games -- 21 starts -- covering just under 130 innings, Eflin is 8-6 with a 3.54 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. But the most important statistic is how much he loves his new home. In eight 2023 starts here at Tropicana Field, Eflin is an incredible 8-0 with a 2.17 ERA (vs. 1-3 and 4.65 in seven starts on the road). The Phils are 0-7 in the last seven meetings with the Rays and 0-5 in the last five here in St. Pete. Take the Rays. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|
|||||||
07-03-23 | Mariners v. Giants -131 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -131 | 16 h 34 m | Show |
At 10:15 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Giants over the Seattle Mariners. Despite a very good season in 2022 in which he won 15 games with a 2.90 ERA and finished in the top 12 in the NL Cy Young, the Giants Logan Webb didn't make the All Star team last season. With the pitchers just being named yesterday, Webb was left off again -- not surprisingly as his 2023 numbers don't quite measure up so far. He could be added as a replacement, but right now the 26-year-old RHP is probably focusing on winning games and putting up quality outings. July has historically been Webb's best month as he sports a 2.39 ERA in 12 starts in the mid-summer month. He'll get the month started off with an inter-league start at home against the Mariners. In seven starts at Oracle Park this season, Webb has a 2.31 ERA and 1.03 WHIP while his road number is almost two runs higher at 4.24 (10 starts). The Mariners are 3-10 in their last 13 road games vs. teams with a winning record. They are also 2-5 in the last seven meetings with the Giants (1-4 in the last five here). Take the Giants. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|
|||||||
07-02-23 | Dodgers -188 v. Royals | Top | 1-9 | Loss | -188 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Kansas City Royals. A year ago, Tony Gonsolin made the NL All Star roster on the strength of an incredible first half that included an 11-0 record and 2.02 ERA in 17 starts. Unfortunately, Gonsolin was the goat in the Mid-Summer Classic, giving up all three earned runs to the AL squad in their 3-2 victory. Gonsolin got injured in the second half but still went on to go 16-1 with a 2.14 ERA in 24 starts -- not half-bad. This season, the 29-year-old RH will probably be staying home instead of going to Seattle for the festivities and that might be fine with him. He'll get his 12th start of the 2023 season this afternoon and it will come a day after the Royals pulled off a 6-4 win over Julio Urias and the Dodgers on Saturday night. Gonsolin has excelled in inter-league games throughout his time in Majors. In 11 career appearances -- nine starts -- against AL teams, Gonsolin is 7-0 with a 2.45 ERA and 0.86 WHIP. And, despite the loss last night, the Dodgers are still 7-2 in their last nine inter-league road games vs. losing teams. Take L.A. As always, good luck...Al McMordie
|
|||||||
07-02-23 | Red Sox v. Blue Jays -178 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -178 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
At 1:35 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Boston Red Sox. When the pitchers are selected for next week's All Star Game in a short while, Kevin Gausman of the Blue Jays will almost certainly be on the roster. His 7-4 record may not jump off the page at you, but the 32-year-old RH leads the American League with 139 strikeouts coming into this -- his 18th start this afternoon. The afternoon part may be key for him today as in nine previous daytime starts this season, Gausman is 4-1 with a 1.73 ERA (vs. 3-3 and 4.56 in eight starts under the lights). Gausman has 22 career starts vs. the Red Sox -- second most against any team (the Yankees - 23). And although his overall numbers vs. Boston do not appear all that strong at first glance, most of the damage was done early in his career when he was in Batlmore. In fact, in Gausman's last eight starts vs. the Red Sox, his teams -- the Jays and Orioles -- have gone 7-1. The Blue Jays are also 5-0 in Gausman's last five starts following a loss by the Blue Jays in their previous game. Take Toronto. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|
|||||||
07-01-23 | Nationals v. Phillies -198 | Top | 4-19 | Win | 100 | 14 h 17 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Washington Nationals. The Nats won Game 1 of this series behind a dominating performance from starter Josiah Gray. The only problem is that Gray is Washington's only ace right now and the rotation drops off pretty sharply after him. The Phillies on the other hand have two bona-fide All Star caliber pitchers in Aaron Nola and tonight's starter RH Zack Wheeler. In 16 starts covering just over 93 innings, the 33-year-old RH is 6-4 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.18 WHIP with 106 K's and 22 BB's. Start number 17 will come this afternoon at home where Wheeler has a 3.72 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in eight starts. After going 2-3 in Wheeler's five starts in May, the Phillies went 4-1 when he went to the mound in the month of June -- 4-0 in his last four. Despite their upset victory here last night, the Nats are 15-38 in the last 53 meetings with the Phillies and 2-8 in the last 10 at Citizens Bank Park. Take Philadelphia. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|
|||||||
06-30-23 | Astros v. Rangers -149 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -149 | 16 h 22 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Texas Rangers over the Houston Astros. This weekend series will be the just second meeting of the Astros and Rangers of the season -- and the first in Arlington. The Rangers took two of three from Houston in mid-April at Minute Maid Park. This series will kick off with Jon Gray going to the mound for the home team, while Ronel Blanco will start for the Astros. The veteran Rangers RHP is having a career season with a 6-3 record and a 2.89 ERA in 14 starts covering 81 innings. Gray is making a strong bid for his first All Star game in less than two weeks. Start number 15 will come tonight and it's safe to say it will be one of his most important of the season. If the Rangers are going to continue their first place run, they will almost certainly have to be successful against the 800 pound gorilla of the AL West. The 'Stros may have taken a small step backwards from last season but few would be surprised if they came on strong in the second half. In five career starts vs. the 'Stros, Gray has a 3.12 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. Take the Rangers. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|
|||||||
06-29-23 | White Sox v. Angels -140 | Top | 9-7 | Loss | -140 | 15 h 14 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Angels over the Chicago White Sox. Two and a half years ago, the Rangers traded pitcher Lance Lynn to the White Sox despite the veteran RH having two of the best seasons of his career with Texas (2019-2020). And in his first year in Chicago, Lynn rewarded his new team with an All Star campaign and a performance worthy of a top-three finish in the 2021 AL Cy Young balloting. But things have gone progressively downhill for Lynn from there. Last season was a bit of a disappointment as Lynn went 8-7 with a 3.99 ERA -- more than a run higher than his 2021 number. So far 2023 has been a disaster with Lynn posting a 4-8 record with a 6.40 ERA and 1.49 WHIP in 16 starts covering 90 innings coming into today. Things don't figure to get any easier for the 36-year-old as he is 0-2 with a 4.30 in five career starts covering just over 29 innings at Angels ballpark in Anaheim. Despite their win here last night the White Sox are a dismal 16-36 in their last 52 meetings with the Angels in Anaheim. Take the Halos. As always, good luck...Al McMordie
|
|||||||
06-28-23 | Reds v. Orioles -162 | Top | 11-7 | Loss | -162 | 18 h 24 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Baltimore Orioles over the Cincinnati Reds. After winning Game 1 of this inter-league series on Monday 10-3, the O's stacked their lineup with right-handed hitters on Tuesday against young southpaw phenom starter Andrew Abbott of the Reds. The O's knew that the 24-year-old LHP had been very tough to hit in his first four starts and that proved to the case again last night as Baltimore's lineup couldn't figure out Abbott over six innings and the Reds held on through a rain delay (and we cashed our MLB Underdog of the Month). Tonight will likely be a different story as the Birds' hitters could have a field day against RHP Luke Weaver (1-2; 6.86 ERA in 12 starts). Veteran RHP Kyle Gibson will get his 17th start of the season. The 35-year-old is 8-5 with a 4.30 ERA in 92 innings. Gibson won his only previous start against the Reds which was last season when he was a member of the Phillies (6 IP, 3ER, 11 K's, 0 BBs). Despite their win last night the Reds are still just 4-8 in the last 12 meetings with the O's including 1-5 in the last six here at Camden Yards. Take the Orioles. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|
|||||||
06-27-23 | Reds +129 v. Orioles | Top | 3-1 | Win | 129 | 17 h 8 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Reds over the Baltimore Orioles. After winning 12 straight, the Reds are now riding a 3-game losing streak following their 10-3 defeat at Camden Yards last night. Runs should be more scarce tonight, as Baltimore's Tyler Wells will tussle with Cincy's Andrew Abbott. Wells is having a solid season for Baltimore, as he's 6-3, with a 3.42 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. Not to be outdone, Abbott is 3-0 in four Cincy starts, with a 1.14 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP. Abbott made his MLB debut on June 5 after starting the season with Double-A Chattanooga (1.15 ERA in three starts), before making seven starts at Triple-A Louisville (3-0, 3.05 ERA). And the Reds have won all 4 of his starts (including two as +155 underdogs at Houston and at St Louis). Abbott has tossed 11 2/3 scoreless innings on the road this season, and the Reds are also a solid 16-15 (+8.0 net games) as a road underdog this year. Take the Reds as a road dog. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
06-26-23 | White Sox v. Angels -128 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 18 h 24 m | Show |
At 9:35 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Angels over the Chicago White Sox. On Saturday, the Angels' offense exploded for 23 runs in four innings before taking its foot off the gas and cruising to a record-setting 25-1 victory. It's the type of output that Angels fans have dreamed about since assembling an offense which includes Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani. But let's not think this is going to be a habit with this team. After all, Saturday's game was i) against a very bad Rockies team; and, ii) at Coors Field. But there is more reason for optimism in Anaheim and it has nothing to do with hitting. We've known that LH Reid Detmers is a talented pitcher for some time. But the youngster has never been able to put it together, often being too wild and inconsistent to be considered an ace. But Detmer's last three starts may be signaling a turnaround as he has gone 1-0 with a 0.96 ERA and 24 Ks and six BBs in 18 2/3 IP. His 14th start of the season will come tonight vs. a Sox team which has never seen him before. Chicago is also an ugly 6-24 in the last 30 meetings in Anaheim. Take the Angels. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|
|||||||
06-25-23 | Brewers -107 v. Guardians | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
At 1:40 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Cleveland Guardians. Less than two years removed from receiving the NL Cy Young Award, the Brewers would no doubt love to figure out why Corbin Burnes doesn't pitch like Corbin Burnes most of the time now. After all, at age 28, Burnes is still right in the middle of his prime but for whatever reason the strikeouts are down and the walks and ERA are up. Of course, most pitchers in the Majors would sign up for a 3.96 ERA in a heartbeat, but for Burnes, that's not what we've been used to seeing when he is at his best. Burnes will get start number 16 this afternoon and it will be his first against Cleveland since a 3-0, eight-inning shutout effort in September of 2021 -- his Cy Young season. For his career, Burnes is 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA and 0.43 WHIP in two starts vs. the Guardians covering 14 innings. The veteran RH looks to rebound today from his worst start of the season last time out. Despite their win on Saturday, the Guardians are 1-4 in the last five meetings with the Brewers. Take Milwaukee. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|
|||||||
06-24-23 | A's v. Blue Jays -243 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 15 h 52 m | Show |
At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Oakland Athletics. When the Blue Jays acquired Jose Berrios from the Twins at the trade deadline in 2021, it was with the expectation that adding the 27-year-old ace to an already strong Toronto roster could result in a World Series within a year or two. That hasn't been the case and Berrios' tenure in Toronto has been up and down. Last season was disappointing as the Puerto Rican RHP won 12 games but posted a 5.23 ERA and led the league with 199 hits allowed and 100 ER. Berrios has righted the ship so far in 2023 as in 15 starts covering 89 innings the now-29-year-old is 7-5 with a 3.64 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. Start number 16 will come this afternoon against the A's who broke an eight-game losing streak with a victory over the Jays on Friday. In 30 career starts here at Rogers Centre, Berrios is 15-5 with a 3.36 ERA and 1.12 WHIP with 174 strikeouts in 177 innings. Despite their victory on Friday, the A's are just 7-20 in the last 27 meetings in Toronto. Take the Blue Jays. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|
|||||||
06-23-23 | Braves -150 v. Reds | Top | 10-11 | Loss | -150 | 15 h 13 m | Show |
At 6:40 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the Cincinnati Reds. The hottest team in the Major Leagues? It isn't the Rays, Diamondbacks, Braves or Rangers, but rather the Reds. Cincy has won 11 in a row coming into this weekend series with Atlanta. The streak somewhat coincided with the call-up of #1 prospect Elly De La Cruz, who has not disappointed since making his debut on June 6. It should be pointed out that the Reds' win streak is comprised of series against the Rockies, Royals, Cardinals, and the recently-struggling Astros. So, tonight could be the first real test they've had in a while as the Braves haven't been doing too badly themselves, having won eight straight heading into this showdown. The Reds will send out RH Luke Weaver who has a 6.47 ERA and 1.54 WHIP in 11 starts this season. Atlanta has dominated this series lately, taking seven of the last nine meetings going back to last April while the Reds are 14-37 in their last 51 games vs. teams with a winning % above .600. Take Atlanta. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|
|||||||
06-23-23 | Royals v. Rays -255 | Top | 3-11 | Win | 100 | 15 h 12 m | Show |
At 6:40 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Kansas City Royals. In one of the biggest upsets of the MLB season so far, the Royals beat the Rays and leading Cy Young candidate Shane McClanahan on Thursday, 6-5. Tampa will pick itself up off the mat tonight in Game 2 of this four-game weekend series with Zach Eflin going to the mound. Like McClanahan, Eflin will likely be an All Star in a few weeks. The veteran RH brings his 8-3 record and 3.26 ERA into this -- his 14th start -- tonight. It will be just his second career start vs. the Royals. His prior one was a gem as Eflin threw a complete game shutout vs. Kansas City back in May of 2019 as a member of the Phillies. If there's one thing Eflin has enjoyed since becoming a member of the Rays, it's his new home ballpark. In seven starts this season here at Tropicana Field, Eflin is 7-0 with a 1.85 ERA vs. 1-3 and 5.08 in six starts on the road. Despite the win on Thursday, the Royals are 8-20 in the last 28 meetings with the Rays. Take Tampa. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
06-22-23 | Padres -118 v. Giants | Top | 10-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
At 3:45 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the San Francisco Giants. It's been five years since Blake Snell won the Cy Young award over in the American League as a member of the Tampa Bay Rays. To say that Snell has never come close to repeating what he did in 2018 is an obvious understatement. In the 4 1/2 seasons since winning top pitching honors, the veteran southpaw has not once returned to the All Star game, has never won even half as many games as he did that season (21) and hasn't seen an ERA anywhere near the 1.89 he turned in. Snell has had issues since that amazing season -- mostly with his mechanics and control. But in his last four starts, we may be seeing Snell finally turn the corner and get back to his ace-like form. In those last four he has been one of the best pitchers in the game, going 2-0 with a 0.36 ERA and 0.76 WHIP with 39 Ks in 25 IP. He'll try to keep the Cy Young form going this afternoon vs. the Giants. In four daytime starts this season Snell has a 1.96 ERA (vs. 4.15 in 10 starts under the lights). Take the Padres. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|
|||||||
06-21-23 | Orioles v. Rays -138 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 7 h 38 m | Show |
At 12:10 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Baltimore Orioles. Taj Bradey was selected by the Rays in the fifth round of the 2018 as a 17-year-old out of High School in Georgia and he chose to sign with the club that year. As a result, the young RHP has had five years to hone his craft in the Rays' superb minor league system and now he's making his debut on the big stage at the age of 23. And what a debut it's been so far. Bradley is 4-3 with a 4.19 ERA in nine starts covering 43 innings with 63 strikeouts and 15 walks in 43 innings. Bradley gets another big test this afternoon against a very good hitting Orioles club. If Bradley keeps going the way he has been, he should be in the mix for AL Rookie of the Year when all is said and done at the end of the season. Bradley set a career high with 11 strikeouts in just 4 1/3 innings (every out except two was a K) in his last start vs. the A's. Despite their victory here last night, the Orioles are just 17-36 in the last 53 meetings with the Rays and 13-39 in the last 52 here in St. Pete. Take the Rays. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|
|||||||
06-20-23 | Dodgers -132 v. Angels | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 14 h 0 m | Show |
At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Los Angeles Angels. 2014 was the last year that the Angels finished with a better record than their cross-town rivals to the north. That season, the Dodgers were 94-68 and the Angels were 98-64. Here we are almost 10 years later and approaching the halfway point of this season and the Halos currently have the bragging rights over the more established L.A. team -- albeit slightly. Back in 2014, Clayton Kershaw was the Dodgers' ace and the best pitcher in the game. He's 35-years-old now but the future Hall of Fame southpaw can still get the job done. In 14 starts, Kershaw is 8-4 with a 2.95 ERA and 1.11 WHIP and those eight wins rank 2nd in the NL (behind Merrill Kelly's 9). Kershaw loves this SoCal series as in 15 career starts vs. the Angels he is 9-2 with a 2.13 ERA and 0.92 WHIP, with 108 K's in just over 101 IP. The Dodgers are also 13-3 in the last 16 meetings with the Halos. Take the Dodgers. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
06-19-23 | Diamondbacks +113 v. Brewers | Top | 9-1 | Win | 113 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Diamondbacks over the Milwaukee Brewers. The Diamondbacks' recently-concluded seven-game homestand didn't go as they had hoped (3-4) but the surprise team of the National League must still be happy with where it is as we approach the halfway point of the season. Arizona is 14 games over .500 and has a healthy 3.5-game lead in the NL West. Now they embark on a seven-game road trip which should be tougher than originally planned because of a detour to Washington to play a make-up game with the Nats (on what was supposed to be an off-day). But before the DC game, the D-Backs have to visit Milwaukee for three days. RHP Merrill Kelly will start things off for Arizona tonight. The veteran leads the NL with eight wins and has a very solid 3.04 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 14 starts covering 83 innings. The 34-year-old has done by far his best work on the road this season, going 5-0 with a 2.12 ERA in six starts away from Arizona (and Arizona's won his last 7 road starts, dating back to last season). Kelly also has a 3.32 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in seven career starts vs. the Brew Crew. Take the D-Backs. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|
|||||||
06-18-23 | Reds v. Astros -140 | Top | 9-7 | Loss | -140 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Cincinnati Reds. The Reds are going for a most improbable three-game sweep of the Astros this afternoon, having won the first two games of this series on Friday and Saturday. This afternoon will be Houston's 22nd game in the last 23 days and you know what that means. Time for a fill-in starter. Enter 29-year-old RH Ronel Blanco. In 11 games this season -- including two starts -- Blanco is 1-0 with a 3.86 ERA and he has 26 strikeouts in his 23 1/3 innings pitched so far. Blanco may not stick in the rotation, but he can still be a valuable piece for a team that makes the post-season almost every year it seems. 29-year-old Luke Weaver will get his 11th start of the season today for the Reds. The veteran RH has been bouncing around the league and struggling almost everywhere he pitches. In 10 starts with the Reds, Weaver is 1-2 with a 6.23 ERA. The Reds are 17-48 in their last 65 road games vs. teams with a winning record. Take the 'Stros. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
06-17-23 | Blue Jays v. Rangers -120 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 4 h 26 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Texas Rangers over the Toronto Blue Jays. I played against Texas each of the last two days. On Thursday, I took Shohei Ohtani and the Angels vs. the Rangers, and won 5-3. And, then, last night, I backed the Blue Jays with Kevin Gausman, and won, 2-1. But off their back to back losses, I'll now switch gears and take the homestanding Rangers. Texas is 19-7 (+12.4 net games) in day games this season, compared to just 23-20 (+0.4 net games) at night. And the Rangers are 6-1 after scoring less than 4 runs in back to back games. Take Texas. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
06-16-23 | Tigers v. Twins -220 | Top | 7-1 | Loss | -220 | 7 h 11 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Twins over the Detroit Tigers. If anyone believed in Joe Ryan early in his baseball career it was probably Joe Ryan. Selected by Tampa in the seventh round of the amateur draft back in 2018 but never having made it to the big league club, Ryan found himself traded by the Rays to the Twins for a 40-year-old Nelson Cruz in 2021. Unlike the Rays who had young, talented pitching coming out of their ears, the Twins were desperate for some new blood in the rotation and Ryan made the squad almost immediately. To say he hasn't looked back would be an understatement. Last season, Ryan -- now 26 years old -- broke out and went 13-8 with a 3.55 ERA in 27 starts for Minny. So far in 2023, Ryan is out to show that last year was no fluke as the RH is 7-3 with a 2.90 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in 13 starts covering 77 2/3 innings. In five career starts vs. the Tigers covering just over 28 innings, Ryan is 4-0 with a 2.54 ERA and 0.85 WHIP. Take the Twins. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
06-16-23 | Blue Jays -137 v. Rangers | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 18 h 38 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Texas Rangers. In some ways it's hard to believe that Kevin Gausman has been in the league for 11 seasons now. Seems like only yesterday he was pitching for the Orioles. But a journey consisting of four teams and two leagues since he was in Baltimore has landed the 32-year-old back in the AL East with the Blue Jays. After a 12-win season in 2022, Gausman is having one of his best campaigns now -- his second in Toronto. He's never led the league in strikeouts before but we're almost halfway through the season, and the hard-throwing RH is leading the pack with 117 punch-outs (in only 86 2/3 IP). It seems that Gausman will throw in a clunker every fourth or fifth start, as he did in his last outing vs. the Twins. He'll look to bounce back tonight against a very good Texas team. In his last five starts vs. the Rangers, Gausman is 4-0 with a 3.09 ERA (and he won his only previous start here at Globe Life Field). And Gausman's teams have won each of those previous five starts. Meanwhile, the Rangers' Martin Perez has not found great success vs. Toronto, as his teams have won just three of his 10 career starts vs. the Blue Jays. Finally, the Blue Jays are 7-2 in the last nine meetings with the Rangers. Take Toronto. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
06-15-23 | Angels +110 v. Rangers | Top | 5-3 | Win | 110 | 8 h 36 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Angels over the Texas Rangers. With 20 home runs in 67 games, Shohei Ohtani now leads the American League (it doesn't hurt that Aaron Judge -- one behind him -- has been out with an injury). But if Ohtani is going to lead his team to the post-season, it won't be just with his bat. The Angels will need Ohtani to perform on the mound every five or six days and so far he's been doing that with 13 starts and a 5-2 record with a 3.32 ERA to his credit. Sure, that ERA is a run higher than last season and Ohtani leads the league in wild pitches and hit batsmen, but he is still throwing heat and striking guys out at an amazing rate. Tonight will be Ohtani's first start of the season vs. the Rangers and the 28-year-old RH has a winning record (3-2) in seven career starts against them. The Angels are 9-3 in Ohtani's last 12 starts, including 4-1 in his last five on the road. The Angels are hot, winning eight of their last 10 and they are 5-2 in their last seven vs. AL West teams. Take Los Angeles. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|
|||||||
06-14-23 | Rays -260 v. A's | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 17 h 45 m | Show |
At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Oakland A's. The A's have now won seven in a row, following a 12-50 start to the season. But I expect their win streak to be halted by Tyler Glasnow and the Rays tonight. Glasnow's career ERA in his starts vs. Oakland is 2.13, with a 1.02 WHIP. And the Rays are a solid 31-7 (+18.1 net games) as a favorite of -150 (or more) this season (and 109-40 (+34.8 net games) since 2021). Glasnow's teams have been favored -200 (or more) in 11 of his career starts, and his teams have gone 10-1. Meanwhile, Oakland is a wallet-breaking 16-48 (minus 12.1 net games) as an underdog of +200 (or more). And it's 0-5 in Luis Medina's five career starts (his ERA is 8.14 in those games). Take Tampa Bay. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
06-14-23 | Angels v. Rangers -140 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 15 h 9 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Texas Rangers over the Los Angeles Angels. Expectations were high for Angels pitching going into this season, and not just Shohei Ohtani. One of those others is LH Reid Detmers. After all, Detmers was the 10th overall pick in the 2020 Amateur Draft and he made it to the Big Leagues the next year. And 2022 was a breakout of sorts with Detmers going 7-6 with a 3.55 ERA in 25 starts with an 8.5 strikeout rate and a complete game shutout to his credit. But this season has seen a major regression. In 11 starts covering 56 1/3 innings, Detmers is just 1-5 with a 4.79 ERA and 1.51 WHIP. He'll be facing a fellow southpaw tonight in Rangers' veteran Andrew Heaney. After being drafted by the Marlins, Heaney pitched for the Angels for 6 1/2 seasons before being traded. Now with Texas, Heaney has been solid with a 4-4 record and 4.14 ERA in 12 starts. This will be his first start vs. his former team. Texas has won four of Heaney's last five starts and scored a total of 45 runs in those -- an average of over 10 runs per game. Take the Rangers. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|
|||||||
06-14-23 | Braves -190 v. Tigers | Top | 10-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
At 1:10 pm, in Game 1 of the double-header, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the Detroit Tigers. Spencer Strider has made 13 starts this season, and has a 3.79 ERA and 1.08 WHIP, with 121 strikeouts in 73 2/3 innings. And on the road, his ERA is 2.86. The Braves are 11-2 in his starts, and we'll take them to bounce back off Monday's frustrating loss in extra innings. Atlanta is a solid 71-28 (+24.1 net games) as a road favorite of -125 or more. And it's 13-2 behind Strider in his career when favored -200 (or more). Meanwhile, notwithstanding its 6-5 win to open this series, Detroit is still just 1-9 this month and is the worst run-scoring team in baseball (3.57 rpg). Take the Braves. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
06-13-23 | Panthers +1.5 v. Golden Knights | Top | 3-9 | Loss | -170 | 15 h 5 m | Show |
At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Florida Panthers +1.5 goals over the Vegas Golden Knights. The Panthers are one loss away from elimination in the 2023 Stanley Cup Finals, and though they are down, they are definitely not out. After an inspired home comeback victory in Game 3 the Panthers once again fell behind in Game 4 and staged a furious rally but came up just short. Florida should hold its head up going into this evening's must-win game knowing that they have made winning big games on the road a habit during these playoffs and that they are 12-3 in their last 15 games away from South Florida. If the Panthers can pull off another one tonight then it's back to Miami and their 20,000 home faithful, rally towels, and plastic rats. The Panthers are 23-12 in their last 35 games when playing with two days of rest. Meanwhile, Vegas is a poor 44-41 (minus 15.1 net games) when playing with 2 days' of rest (but 277-181 (+ 30.8 net games) otherwise). Take Florida +1.5 goals. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|
|||||||
06-13-23 | Nationals v. Astros -248 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 15 h 55 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Washington Nationals. This is the first visit of the Nats to Minute Maid Park since 2019 when they won their only World Series by winning all four road games here. But a lot has changed in the ensuing three-plus years and while the Astros are still a pretty dominant team, the Nationals are not. All of their superstar players from that season are gone except for one who hasn't really played since then and may never play again (WS MVP Stephen Strasburg). One of the other pitchers who did well in that series was LH Patrick Corbin. But since then, he's been arguably the worst high-paid starter in the game (and the Nats still have him under a large contract until 2025). While the Nats are still trying to get beyond the past with Corbin, the 'Stros are looking forward to the future with rookies like Hunter Brown. The 24-year-old RH is 5-3 with a 3.69 ERA in 12 starts. He's lost his last two starts but should be able to bounce back against an overmatched DC team tonight. Take Houston. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|
|||||||
06-12-23 | Heat v. Nuggets UNDER 208.5 | Top | 89-94 | Win | 100 | 67 h 23 m | Show |
At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in Game 5 between Denver and Miami. This series has generally been a low-scoring series. Game 1 went UNDER the total by 21.5 points; Game 3 went UNDER the total by 9.5 points; and Game 4 went UNDER the total by 8.5 points. The only game which went OVER the total was Game 2, and that barely went Over by just 2.5 points. I'll look for yet another low-scoring game on this Monday, as the Heat's offense has been struggling mightily since its opening three wins in the Boston series (in which it averaged 120.6 ppg). Over its last eight games, the Heat have averaged just 99.3 ppg, and seven of those eight games have sailed UNDER the total. Denver's also played seven of its last 10 UNDER. Take the Under in Game 5. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
06-12-23 | Braves -225 v. Tigers | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -225 | 6 h 27 m | Show |
At 6:40 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the Detroit Tigers. Charlie Morton may be almost 40 years old, but he is out to prove that he can still be an effective starter in the Majors. His won-lost record may not be exactly where he wants it at 5-6, but Morton still has some pretty solid supporting numbers, including 12 starts with a 3.89 ERA and a 10.0 strikeout rate. Start number 13 will come tonight in Comerica Park and that's a place where he's done pretty well in the past. In two career starts here, Morton is 1-1 with a 2.77 ERA with 12 strikeouts and one walk in 13 innings. Overall against the Tigers, Morton has a 2.00 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in four starts covering 27 innings. He last faced the Tigers in 2019 when he threw 14 innings over two starts, allowing zero earned runs on eight hits with 18 strikeouts and no walks. The Tigers are probably the most injured team in the League right now with no fewer than 13 players (four position players and nine pitchers) on the IL. The Braves are 15-6 in their last 21 games as a road favorite. Take Atlanta. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|
|||||||
06-11-23 | Mets v. Pirates -116 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
At 1:35 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Pirates over the New York Mets. Mitch Keller has finally rewarded the patience of the Pittsburgh Pirates organization, and is having his best season yet. In 13 starts, his ERA is 3.60 and his WHIP is 1.17. And, most importantly, his team has won nine of those 13 starts. Pittsburgh did lose Keller's last outing, 11-2, to the (now) red-hot A's, who have won a season-high four straight games. But I like Keller to bounce back this afternoon vs. the Mets. In his last start vs. New York at PNC Field, on Sept 6, 2022, Keller tossed six shutout innings, en route to an 8-2 Pirates victory. The Mets have been dreadful as an underdog this season, as they're 3-14 (minus 10.7 net games). And Mets starter, Carlos Carrasco, has an ugly 5.94 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in his seven starts this year. Even worse: in Carrasco's career, when his teams have been an underdog, they've gone 17-39 (minus 18.4 net games), compared to 117-73 (+2.9 net games) as a favorite. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh is a solid 31-19 (+7.6 net games) as a favorite of -150 or less. Take the Pirates. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
06-10-23 | Golden Knights v. Panthers -110 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 5 m | Show |
At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Florida Panthers over the Vegas Golden Knights. The Rats were back on the ice on Thursday night. The first Stanley Cup Finals game played in South Florida since 1996 was a good one -- unless you're a Vegas fan. The Knights took a 2-1 lead into the final three minutes of the game but the Panthers scored with their goalie pulled and an extra attacker on the ice and the Rats came flying from the home crowd. It didn't take long for Florida to seal the deal in overtime (after successfully killing a power play, to boot), and now this is looking like a whole new series. Game 4 will be back at the FLA Live Arena tonight and it will be interesting to see how the Knights respond after letting their opponents off the hook like that. After playing so well against Dallas, and also in the first two games of this series, Vegas goalie Adin Hill struggled on Thursday, allowing three goals on just 23 shots, a saves percentage of just .870. With that loss, the Golden Knights are now just 1-5 in the last six meetings here in South Florida, and the home team is 12-1 in the last 13 meetings, overall. Take the Panthers. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|
|||||||
06-10-23 | A's v. Brewers -174 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -174 | 15 h 54 m | Show |
At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Oakland Athletics. With their upset victory over the Brewers last night, the Oakland A's have their first three game winning streak of the season. But it could also be their last of the season. Let's not kid ourselves -- this is a bad team with no chance of making the playoffs until somewhere down the road when they settle in Las Vegas. Milwaukee can't be happy about dropping the first game of this series at home and so tonight they will answer with a starter who has been quite the pleasant surprise for the Brew Crew so far. Julio Teheran hadn't pitched since 2021 when he had one start for the Tigers. Now he's in the Brewers rotation due to some injuries and he seems to be making the most of his opportunity. In three starts covering just over 17 innings, the 32-year-old RH is 1-2 with a 1.56 ERA and 0.92 WHIP with 10 strikeouts and just two walks. Despite the win last night, the A's are 5-13 in their last 18 inter-league road games vs. RH starters. Take Milwaukee. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|
|||||||
06-09-23 | Nuggets v. Heat +3.5 | Top | 108-95 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 52 m | Show |
At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Miami Heat + the points over the Denver Nuggets. We played on Denver in Games 1 + 3 in this series (and passed Game 2). But we will take Miami in Game 4, as Denver's a horrible road team off an ATS win. And especially against foes that failed to cover the spread by more than 7 points in their previous game, as Denver's 13-44-1 ATS its last 58. Yikes! Moreover, Miami is a solid 38-12 straight-up, and 31-16-3 ATS at home as a winning team off a straight-up home defeat. And it's 56-34 ATS in the Playoffs when it didn't lead in a series. Grab the points with Jimmy Butler & Co. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
06-09-23 | Rangers +152 v. Rays | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 53 m | Show |
At 6:40 pm, our selection is on the Texas Rangers over the Tampa Bay Rays. If someone had told you back in March that the top two teams in the AL were playing a series the weekend of June 9, you might have thought it would be the Astros and Guardians. Or maybe the Red Sox and Yankees. But you probably wouldn't have imagined it would be the #2 Texas Rangers going to Tampa to play the #1 Rays. But that's the situation we have over the next three days here at Tropicana Field, home of the 46-19 Tampa Bay ball club. Game 1 tonight will feature Texas southpaw Andrew Heaney. The 32-year-old has struggled with control at times in this -- his first season with the Rangers. But he's been solid most of the time, posting a 4-3 record over 11 starts with a 4.03 ERA and 60 strikeouts in 58 innings. He's looking for his first win vs. the Rays (0-3) but he's been very good against them, with a 3.67 ERA in five starts covering 27 innings. The Rangers are 4-0 in Heaney's last four starts and 6-1 in their last seven vs. teams with a winning record. Take Texas. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|
|||||||
06-08-23 | Golden Knights v. Panthers -118 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 19 h 60 m | Show |
At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Florida Panthers over the Vegas Golden Knights. Those rooting for close games in the Stanley Cup Finals are disappointed so far as the Knights took Games 1 and 2 convincingly -- by scores of 5-2 and 7-2. But now the series shifts to South Florida and the Panthers and their faithful have some good news coming into Game 3. For one thing, despite losing those first two games, Florida out-shot Vegas in both of those. Second, this will be the first Finals games in South Florida since 1996 -- the Panthers' third year in the League -- and it will be the first in their current home -- FLA Live Arena. Panthers Goalie Sergei Bobrovsky has been solid for them all playoffs, but the veteran simply didn't have it in Game 2, so the coaches pulled him after he allowed four goals in the first 13 shots. Expect Bobrovsky to be right back in net tonight and for the 19,000 home fans to give him a rousing ovation. This has historically been a host-friendly series as the home team is now 11-1 in the last 12 meetings and Vegas is 1-4 in the last five here. Take Florida. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
06-08-23 | White Sox v. Yankees -120 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 3 h 51 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, in Gm 2 of the double header, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Chicago White Sox. We played on New York a couple nights ago, and lost a 3-2 decision, as the Yankees were held to just three hits. We'll come right back with New York on Thursday, in this 2nd game of the DH. New York will hand the ball to 24-year-old rookie Randy Vasquez, who will be making his 2nd career start. Vasquez allowed 2 runs in 4 2/3 innings vs. the Padres in his MLB debut last month. He worked through four scoreless innings before a 2-run HR by Juan Soto in the 5th inning spoiled his outing. New York is 76-48 (+ 12.9 net games) as a home favorite of -150 or less, while Chicago is 38-61 (minus 15.6 net games) as an underdog of +150 or less. Take the Yankees. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
06-08-23 | Orioles -112 v. Brewers | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Baltimore Orioles over the Milwaukee Brewers. This is the Orioles' first visit to Milwaukee since 2017 and so far the first two games have been all Brewers (including a 10-2 blowout last night). There's no question the O's miss their lead-off man and catalyst, CF Cedric Mullins, who hasn't played since May 29 due to a groin injury which will keep him out for an extended period of time. Still, the new-look Orioles have shown they can compete with the league's best this year thanks to youngsters like Adley Ruschman and Gunnar Henderson. But not all of the young talent is on the offensive side. Baltimore's youthful pitching has stepped up too. Today it will be 2nd-year RH Kyle Bradish getting his 11th start of the season. Over his first 10 starts, the 26-year-old is 2-2 with a 4.13 ERA and a strikeout rate of almost eight per game. Bradish has thrived in these situations as in seven career inter-league starts he is 2-1 with a 2.87 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 44 K's with 10 BBs in 37 2/3 innings. The O's are also 22-8 in their last 30 games after allowing five or more runs in their previous game, and 34-13 (+18.6 net games) as a favorite of -150 (or less). Take Baltimore. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
06-07-23 | Nuggets -135 v. Heat | Top | 109-94 | Win | 100 | 64 h 9 m | Show |
At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets on the moneyline in Game 3, to win straight-up. The Nuggets fell, 111-108, at home in Game 2. But we'll take them to win Wednesday's game, straight-up, as Denver is 19-5 (79%) straight up as a single-digit road favorite off a loss (compared to 29-20 (59%) off a win). Meanwhile, Miami is 5-13 straight-up as a home dog of +4 points or less, including 1-5 straight-up off a win. And home dogs are 9-30 straight-up in the playoffs in Game 3 of an NBA series, including 0-11 straight-up when the point spread was in the narrow +2.5 to +3.5-point range. We'll take the Nuggets on the moneyline. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
06-06-23 | White Sox v. Yankees -165 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -165 | 18 h 35 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Chicago White Sox. At the end of April, the Yankees' Clarke Schmidt was 0-3 with a 6.84 ERA and a 1.68 WHIP. And the Yankees had lost five of his six starts. But Schmidt was much better in the month of May. He made six starts, and allowed more than two runs in just one of those starts -- a horrible outing on May 14 vs. Tampa, in which he gave up 7 runs over 4 2/3 innings. Still, even with that dismal performance, his ERA for May was just 3.52, and his WHIP was 1.36. We did play against Schmidt and the Yankees in his last start, and won on George Kirby and the Mariners. But it took 10 innings for Seattle to score a run, and win 1-0. So, Schmidt did little wrong, as he pitched 5 2/3 scoreless innings, for the best start of his caeer. We'll take New York today, and go against Lucas Giolito and the White Sox. Chicago is an awful 1-13 its last 14 as an underdog with Giolito on the hill. And Giolito's career ERA vs. New York in his starts is 6.30, with a 1.80 WHIP. Take New York. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
06-05-23 | Panthers +124 v. Golden Knights | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 56 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Florida Panthers over the Vegas Golden Knights. The Panthers lost Game 1 by a 5-2 score, on Saturday. But Vegas also had good fortune, as three shots by the Panthers clanged off the goal post in the first two periods, when the game was still in the balance. We'll take Florida to bounce back tonight, as it's 59-36 (+8.5 net games) off a loss, and 18-9 (+7.9 net games) after allowing 5+ goals. And Paul Maurice's troops have won all three Game 2s this playoffs season. Meanwhile, the Golden Knights are a soft 47-46 (but minus 20.6 net games) off back to back games where they scored more than 3 goals, and 13-14 (minus 10.2 net games) off back to back blowout wins by more than 2 goals. Take Florida. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
06-04-23 | Guardians v. Twins -163 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -163 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Twins over the Cleveland Guardians. The Twins may not win the World Series this season. Heck, they may not even win the AL Central crown. But you'd be hard-pressed to find a more consistent 1-2-3 top of the rotation than their combination of Pablo Lopez, Sonny Gray, and Joe Ryan. Throw in Bailey Ober as a No. 4 and you have as solid a rotation as you can have these days. It's the main reason Minnesota has the second-lowest team ERA in the Majors so far (3.44). This afternoon it will be Ryan's turn. The 26-year-old RH is having an All Star-caliber first half, going 7-2 with a 2.77 ERA, 10.5 strikeout rate and 5.85 K:BB ratio. He put up a rare clunker of a start last time out against the Astros in Houston. Look for Ryan to bounce back this afternoon as in 17 career daytime starts, he is 10-4 with a 2.51 ERA (vs. 12-7 and 3.96 in 26 starts under the lights). Even better: in six starts against the Guardians, Ryan is 3-1 with a 1.67 ERA and 0.80 WHIP with 30 strikeouts and four walks in 37 2/3 IP. Take the Twins. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
06-03-23 | Panthers +118 v. Golden Knights | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 31 m | Show |
At 8 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Florida Panthers over the Vegas Golden Knights. The Panthers were almost eliminated from the playoffs with 1 second to go in their opening-round Game 5 vs. Boston. The Bruins were already up 3 games to 1, and the game was tied at 3 when Boston forward Brad Marchand skated in on Sergei Bobrovsky. But the 2-time Vezina Trophy winner made the save (one of 43 for the game), and the Panthers won, 4-3, at 6:05 into the overtime session. That improbable victory (Boston was a -270 favorite in the Game 4) triggered an even more improbable streak by the 8th-seeded Panthers. Florida has now won 11 of its last 12 games (vs. the top shelf Bruins, Maple Leafs and Hurricanes). And the Bruins, Leafs and 'Canes owned the 1st, 2nd and 4th-best records in the regular season. Here, the Panthers will attempt to upset the team with the 5th-best regular season record. Vegas's path to the finals (by virtue of its #1 seed in the West) was understandably easier, and it ousted the league's 6th (Edmonton), 8th (Dallas) and 14th-best (Jets) teams to earn this berth in the Stanley Cup. Many bettors will shy away from the red-hot Panthers, under the belief that the 10 days since their last game will have cooled off any momentum. But I've never been on that side of the "rest vs rust" debate in pro sports. Indeed, we just saw the Denver Nuggets (who had the exact same amount of time off before their NBA Game 1) annihilate the Miami Heat, 104-93. So, I'm perfectly fine with the Panthers' long layoff, and don't believe we'll see any "rust" tonight. The Golden Knights do come into this game off a 6-0 blowout win to close out the Dallas Stars, but are a soft 7-11 (minus 11.5 net games) following a win by more than 4 goals, and are 23-22 (minus 8.5 net games) off a shutout win. Take the underdog Panthers. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
06-02-23 | Brewers -175 v. Reds | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 17 h 3 m | Show |
At 5:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Cincinnati Reds. After he won the NL Cy Young in 2021, Brewers RHP Corbin Burnes had a slight regression the following season. With the exception of victories, all of Burnes' numbers were worse last year and the additional win (Burnes had 12 in 2022 after 11 in 2021) is simply a matter of five more starts last season. Now it appears Burnes is having a further decline in 2023. But even a Corbin Burnes who is 85% of what he was two years ago is still better than almost all other starters in the league and certainly there is plenty of time for improvement this season. Over his first 11 starts, the 28-year-old is 4-4 with a 3.68 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 8.3 strikeouts per nine IP. Interestingly, Burnes has only had four career starts vs. the Reds, and this will be his first of 2023. Those four were pretty good and overall vs. Cincy he is 2-1 with a 2.53 ERA in 14 appearances covering 42 2/3 IP with 56 punch-outs. The Brewers are 5-1 in the last six meetings with the Reds and 6-1 in the last seven in Cincinnati. Take Milwaukee. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|
|||||||
06-01-23 | Heat v. Nuggets -8.5 | Top | 93-104 | Win | 100 | 67 h 54 m | Show |
At 8:30 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets minus the points over the Miami Heat. Kudos to Miami, which knocked out the last two Eastern Conference Champs (Milwaukee, Boston). Unfortunately, knocking out Denver will be most difficult. The Nuggets have home court advantage, and are 42-7 at home this season. They're also 30-17-2 ATS at Ball Arena, and have covered the spread by an average of 3.34 ppg. We'll fade Miami in this Game 1, as Eastern Conference teams are 1-13 straight-up, and 2-12 ATS in Game 1 of the NBA Finals when playing away from home. And Denver is 23-11 SU and 25-9 ATS vs. Miami in the last 34 meetings, including 5-0 SU/ATS the last five here, in Denver. And Denver won their last five home games vs. the Heat by an average of 15 ppg. Lay the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
05-31-23 | Yankees v. Mariners -133 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 18 h 54 m | Show |
At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners over the New York Yankees. When the Mariners went 90-72 for the second straight season in 2022, it seemed like they might be poised for an even bigger breakout in 2023. After all, Julio Rodriguez had all the makings of a mega-star at the age of 21 and the young Seattle pitching staff looked like it could only get better. But the first one-third of this season has been below expectations for this club and the Rangers appear to be the breakout team with the Astros doing what they always do. But don't be surprised if the middle part of the season is where the M's wake up and make some major noise. Ju-Rod is heating up (he was just named AL Player of the Week) and the starters are healthy with the exception of Robbie Ray. Tonight it will be young RH George Kirby who is showing that he belongs in the discussion of AL aces and should be a contender for the Cy Young. In 10 starts, Kirby is 5-4 with a 3.43 ERA and a league-leading 8.50 K:BB ratio. Kirby has had quality starts in eight of his last nine outings. Take Seattle. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|
|||||||
05-30-23 | Braves -245 v. A's | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -245 | 20 h 58 m | Show |
At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the Oakland Athletics. The A's pulled off a huge upset on Memorial Day Monday, beating the mighty Braves, and now they will try to do it again tonight. There may be a question as to who the best team in the Majors is, but there is no doubt which team is the worst. The Royals are a pathetic 17-38 (.309 win percentage) and they still have six more wins than the A's. Last night, Oakland beat Braves starter Mike Soroka and tonight they will try to do the same against Bryce Elder. But while Soroka hadn't pitched since 2020 and had more than a little rust last night, Elder is a 24-year-old RH who has been starting since virtually the beginning of the season and who is currently leading the league with a 2.01 ERA in 10 starts covering 58 1/3 innings. That's not bad for a 5th round draft pick in his 2nd year in the Majors. The Braves are 8-2 in Elder's 10 starts and, despite the loss last night, they are 15-4 in the last 19 meetings with the A's. Take Atlanta. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|
|||||||
05-29-23 | Heat v. Celtics UNDER 203.5 | Top | 103-84 | Win | 100 | 44 h 10 m | Show |
At 8:30 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the UNDER in Game 7 between Boston and Miami. We played on the Under in each of Games 5 and Game 6, and got the $$$ in both. And we'll come right back with the Under in this Game 7, on Memorial Day. As I mentioned in those previous write-ups, the Celtics have gone under 17-5 in elimination games, including the last 10 straight. And #2-seeded teams are 21-3 under in their last 24 elimination games, including 12 straight. Miami, meanwhile, will be playing its first elimination game in the Playoffs this season. And it's 16-9 under in elimination games. We'll ride with the under once again. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie. |
|||||||
05-29-23 | Pirates v. Giants -134 | Top | 4-14 | Win | 100 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
At 5:05 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Giants over the Pittsburgh Pirates. It's not every day you hear about a pitcher having an entire season derailed by a bad ankle. But that was the situation with the Giants' Anthony DeSclafani. The problems began with DeSclafani's right ankle in August of 2021 and continued on throughout the first half of 2022 to the point where the 33-year-old RHP finally went for surgery in July of last season. Overall, he was limited to just five starts and 19 IP in 2022, so it was a lost season. But DeSclafani is back in 2023 and so far it appears he is as good as ever with his new ankle. In 10 starts covering just over 60 innings, DeSclafani is 3-4 with a 3.43 ERA and 1.04 WHIP and a League-leading walk rate of just 1.3 per nine IP. Start number 11 will come in this Memorial Day matinee at home against the Pirates whose fast start to the season has slowed down considerably over the past few weeks. Pittsburgh is 1-6 in the last seven meetings and 0-4 in the last four here in San Francisco. Take the Giants. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|
|||||||
05-28-23 | Phillies v. Braves -242 | Top | 4-11 | Win | 100 | 18 h 31 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the Philadelphia Phillies. After the Braves won Game 1 of this series on Thursday, the Phillies won Games 2 and 3 on Friday and Saturday. So the Braves will try to even this series tonight and they'll rely on their young ace Spencer Strider to get it done for them at home. The 24-year-old RHP is 4-2 with a 2.97 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 10 starts covering just under 58 innings and his 15.1 strikeout rate is the best number in the Majors. Strider hasn't won a decision since May 1, but the Braves have won eight of his 10 starts this season. This will be Strider's first start against the Phillies in 2023 and maybe this is just what the doctor ordered to salvage what otherwise has been a very mediocre month for him. In four games vs. Philadelphia last season -- three starts -- Strider went 4-0 with a 1.27 ERA and 0.66 WHIP with 34 strikeouts in 21 1/3 innings. Despite their wins over the past two days, the Phillies are just 5-13 in the last 18 meetings here at Truist Park. Take the Braves. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|
|||||||
05-27-23 | Marlins v. Angels -184 | Top | 8-5 | Loss | -184 | 20 h 12 m | Show |
At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Angels over the Miami Marlins. Will 2023 be the year that Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani finally take the Angels to the promised land? Trout just passed the great Joe DiMaggio on the career home run list and Ohtani is, well, doing what Ohtani does. The difference -- at least so far -- is that the Angels (eight games under .500 in 2021 and 16 games under last season) are 28-24 at roughly the 1/3 point of the season. The bad news is that they not only have to deal with the Astros this season, but also the Rangers who might just be the best team in the AL when all is said and done. But Ohtani will take the mound tonight for his 11th start of the season. The 28-year-old Japanese superstar has done little wrong, posting a 5-1 record with a 3.05 ERA and 0.90 WHIP with a career-best 12.2 strikeout rate in 59 innings. In seven career inter-league starts, Ohtani is 3-1 with a 2.91 ERA. Despite the Marlins' win last night they are 1-4 in the last five meetings here in Anaheim. Take the Angels. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
05-27-23 | Celtics v. Heat UNDER 211.5 | Top | 104-103 | Win | 100 | 44 h 52 m | Show |
At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in Game 6 between Boston and Miami. We played on the UNDER in Games 4 + 5, and will come right back with the UNDER here, in Game 6. After dropping the first three games (all of which went OVER the total), Boston has now staved off elimination twice -- keyed by its 3-point defense -- and each of those two games went under the total. So, after getting torched by the Heat in Game 3 (128 points, including 19-of-35 from 3-point territory), Boston has now held Miami's offense to under 100 in each of the past two games (99, 97), as Miami's converted just 17 of 55 from long distance the past two games. The Celtics are now 23-10 UNDER their last 33 elimination games, including 9-0 UNDER their last 9. We'll look for that streak to hit 10 straight on Saturday. Take the UNDER. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
05-26-23 | Astros -257 v. A's | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 20 h 37 m | Show |
At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Oakland Athletics. If there was any concern in Houston after Astros aces Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander left for other cities, then that concern may have been very short-lived given the flow of young pitching talent that has arrived over the past three seasons. The latest -- and possibly the best we've seen in a while -- just might be 24-year-old rookie Hunter Brown. Brown had a cup of coffee with the 'Stros last season but in that short time -- seven appearances, two starts -- he showed what he was capable of. And so far in 2023, it appears the preview we got last season was no fluke. In nine starts covering 50 2/3 IP, Brown is 4-1 with a 3.20 ERA and a 9.9 strikeout rate and he looks like an early favorite for AL Rookie of the Year. This will be his second straight start vs. the A's and he'll look to get his first win against them as he threw six stellar innings against them last Saturday but came away with a no-decision. The A's are 7-21 in their last 28 home games vs. teams with a winning record. Take Houston. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|
|||||||
05-26-23 | Blue Jays -145 v. Twins | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 18 h 4 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Minnesota Twins. Two teams with nearly identical records and similar downward trends in the past week will meet for a weekend series in Minneapolis. The Jays and Twins have to be disappointed with their very mediocre records so far as both teams came into the season with fairly high expectations. Injuries to Twins starters Tyler Mahle (elbow surgery) and Kenta Maeda (triceps) have opened the door for some young pitchers, one of whom is getting his sixth start of the season tonight. You can't say that Louie Varland was anything near a top prospect when Minnesota selected him in the 15th round of the Draft in 2019. But the 25-year-old RH has acquitted himself well, going 2-0 with a 4.18 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. Nothing in the Minors suggests those type of MLB numbers so a regression is likely around the corner. Toronto RH Kevin Gausman hasn't won a decision since April 23, but he's pitched well and should come out with a win tonight -- especially given that Minnesota is a horrid 37-65 (minus 25.1 net games) vs. American League starters with an ERA less than 3.70. Take the Jays. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|
|||||||
05-25-23 | Heat v. Celtics -7.5 | Top | 97-110 | Win | 100 | 27 h 38 m | Show |
At 8:30 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the Boston Celtics minus the points over the Miami Heat. The Celtics are down 3-games-to-1 in this Best-of-7 series, so tonight's game (much like Tuesday's game) is a 'must-win' for Boston. The Heat were in a similar position vs. Milwaukee, and they upset the Bucks, 128-126, in overtime, as a 13.5-point underdog. But in 7-game series with a 2-2-1-1-1 format, home teams have typically done well in Game 5 when down 3-games-to-1, as they've cashed 61.7% since 1990. And, regardless of series format, or venue, teams down 3-1 have cashed 56.5%, including a perfect 7-0 ATS if they were a 2-seed, and favored by 4+ points. Take Boston. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
05-25-23 | Heat v. Celtics UNDER 215.5 | Top | 97-110 | Win | 100 | 26 h 20 m | Show |
At 8:30 pm, our selection is on Game 5 between Boston and Miami to go UNDER the total. We played on the Under in Game 4, and narrowly won when the teams combined for 215 points, which was 1.5 points less than the total. We'll come right back with the UNDER in this game, as it falls into a 113-54 totals system of mine. Even better: #2-seeded teams have gone UNDER 19 of their last 22 elimination games, including 10-0 UNDER their last 10. Take the UNDER. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
05-25-23 | Golden Knights v. Stars -110 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 17 h 51 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Stars over the Vegas Golden Knights. Vegas is trying to follow in the footsteps -- or skates perhaps -- of the Panthers who dispatched of the Hurricanes in four straight games and await the winner of this series in the Stanley Cup Finals. The Knights hold a dominant 3-0 lead in this series and -- as opposed to the upstart Panthers (who were the #8 seed in the East) -- have been the higher-seeded team in each of its playoff match-ups. Dallas had high hopes going into Game 3. But it was as disastrous a game for the Stars as could have ever been imagined -- from captain Jamie Benn's ugly cross check which resulted in a two-game suspension, to usually-reliable goalie Jake Oettinger getting yanked after just seven minutes (three goals allowed on five shots). But there's no panic in the Stars who are home again for Game 4. Look for Oettinger to come out with something to prove tonight as will offensive stars Roope Hintz (leading all players with 22 playoff points) and Joe Pavelski. The Stars certainly will want to redeem themselves after that debacle on Tuesday. Key stats: the Stars are 32-12 (+16.2 net games) off a home shutout defeat, and 73-39 (+20.8 net games) off a home blowout loss by 3+ goals. Take Dallas. As always, good luck...Al McMordie
|
|||||||
05-24-23 | Blue Jays v. Rays -192 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 15 h 33 m | Show |
At 6:40 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Toronto Blue Jays. After scoring just 16 runs in five straight losses to the Yankees, Orioles and -- in the first game of this series -- Rays, one had to wonder if Toronto's powerful offense would ever surface again this season. Well the answer was yes and the date was Monday, May 23. In Game 2 of this series, the Jays lineup exploded for 20 runs on 27 hits in a thrashing of the team with the best record in baseball. Hopefully Toronto enjoyed the offensive outburst last night because it could be hard to come anywhere close to those numbers tonight against one of the best starters in baseball. When you look at his record, it's hard to believe that 26-year-old LHP Shane McClanahan has not won his last two starts. In 10 outings, McClanahan is 7-0 with a 2.05 ERA and 68 strikeouts in 57 innings. McClanahan already owns a win against the Jays this season (April 16 in an 8-1 rout) and lifetime he is 3-2 with a 2.65 ERA against them in seven starts covering 37 1/3 IP. Take the Rays. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
05-23-23 | Celtics +2 v. Heat | Top | 116-99 | Win | 100 | 15 h 19 m | Show |
At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics + the points over Miami. The Celtics are down 3-games-to-none, but I don't believe they'll go down without a fight. Indeed, before Boston's 128-102 loss to Miami on Sunday, it had only lost by 20+ points five times in the last two seasons. And the Celtics bounced back from each of those blowout losses to go 5-0 SU/ATS in their next game (winning by an average of 13.2 ppg). Boston is also 9-1 ATS in the Playoffs when priced from -3.5 to +7.5 if it was off back to back SU/ATS losses, and not up in a Playoff series. And it's 20-4 ATS away from home in the Playoffs if it didn't lead in the series, and failed to cover the spread by more than 7 points in its previous game. Take the Celtics. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
05-23-23 | Celtics v. Heat UNDER 216.5 | Top | 116-99 | Win | 100 | 15 h 16 m | Show |
At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics and Miami Heat to go UNDER the total. The Celtics gave up 128 to Miami in Game 3, and were blown out by 26 points. Off that defensive debacle, I expect a lower scoring game tonight. The UNDER has gone 55-34 in the last 89 post-season games when it involved a team which gave up 115+ points in its previous game. And Boston is 13-6 UNDER off an upset playoff defeat. Take the Under. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
05-23-23 | Golden Knights v. Stars -137 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -137 | 15 h 51 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Stars over the Vegas Golden Knights. If you're the Dallas Stars after two games of the Western Conference Finals the question you have to ask as you look at your current situation is whether the glass is half empty or half full. From the half empty perspective, you're down 2-0 to a very good hockey team. But on the half full side, you took the Knights to overtime in both of those games on the road, losing by a single goal in situations that could have easily gone your way. The smart money would say the the Stars are feeling about as good as an 0-2 team can feel right now and if they can win Game 3 here at home tonight, it's a whole new series obviously. The Stars held the Golden Knights to just 24 shots on goal in Game 2 and they had the lead almost the entire third period before yielding the tying goal with less than 2 1/2 minutes left. If they can figure out how to hold their leads the Stars should be just fine. The home team is 5-2 in the last seven meetings of these two and Vegas is 1-4 in the last five here in Dallas. Dallas is also 27-14 this season off a loss (and 9-4 off back to back losses). And, notwithstanding its Game 2 loss, it's still 6-1 its last seven when trailing in a playoff series. Take the Stars. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|
|||||||
05-23-23 | Dodgers v. Braves -194 | Top | 8-1 | Loss | -194 | 14 h 58 m | Show |
At 7:20 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the Los Angeles Dodgers. Regardless of what Spencer Strider does or doesn't do in his MLB career -- one thing is certain. The 24-year-old Braves RHP is the current undisputed strikeout king of Major League Baseball. Through his first nine starts, Strider is 4-1 with a 2.96 ERA and 86 punch outs in just under 52 innings. Not only are those 86 Ks tops for all MLB pitchers, but Strider also leads the Majors with a 15.0 strikeout rate per nine innings (better than his 13.8 number last season). Strider's 10th start of the season will come against a youngster making his MLB debut in big (6' 5") Bobby Miller. You'll have to excuse Miller if he sees some of Strider in himself as this is a hard-throwing 24-year-old with big strikeout numbers in the Minors. But Strider has done it at the Major League level and Miller is stepping out on the big stage for the first time against one of the best lineups in the game. Despite their win on Monday, the Dodgers are just 3-6 in the last nine meetings here in Atlanta. Take the Braves. As always, good luck...Al McMordie
|
|||||||
05-22-23 | Hurricanes -101 v. Panthers | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -101 | 15 h 50 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Hurricanes over the Florida Panthers. The Hurricanes are down 2-games-to-none, but the series has been exceptionally close. Game 1 went into the 4th overtime, while Game 2 was decided in the 1st overtime. And neither team has led by 2 or more goals at any point in time in the first two games, covering a span of over 201 minutes. Off back to back overtime losses at home, we'll take the Hurricanes to bounce back on this Monday night. Carolina is a solid 25-11 its last 36 off back to back losses, and 29-20 on the road off 2 home losses. Meanwhile, the Panthers are an ugly 3-12 off back to back 1-goal road wins. Take Carolina. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie |
|||||||
05-22-23 | Blue Jays +112 v. Rays | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
At 6:40 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Tampa Bay Rays. If the Blue Jays were wondering going into their weekend series whether the Orioles were for real, well they found out the hard way. Baltimore swept Toronto over three games in Canada using their regular formula of timely hitting and great relief pitching. The good news for the Jays however is that despite the dry weekend, they are still three games above .500 and within striking distance -- albeit in last place -- in the ultra-tough AL East. They have a real chance to cut into that deficit this week with a trip to Tampa for four games against the first-place Rays. After successful stints with the A's and Mets, RHP Chris Bassitt has landed in Toronto where he is continuing his run of success as a starter. In nine starts, Bassitt is 5-2 with a 3.05 ERA and 1.09 WHIP and a complete game shutout to his credit. In three career games vs. the Rays -- two starts -- Bassitt has a 2.30 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. Toronto is also 4-1 in the last five meetings with Tampa. Take the Jays. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
05-21-23 | Celtics -3 v. Heat | Top | 102-128 | Loss | -110 | 41 h 39 m | Show |
At 8:30 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Boston Celtics minus the points over the Miami Heat. The Celts have their proverbial back against the wall after losing both games at home to start this series. We'll fade Miami as a home underdog, as home dogs have covered just 33% in the Playoffs since 1991 off back to back road underdog (or PK'em) wins. Even better: Game 3 home teams have gone just 25-44 SU and 28-41 ATS off an upset win as a 5.5-point (or greater) underdog in Game 2. Finally, the Celtics are an awesome 15-1-1 ATS as a favorite of -2 (or more) points off back to back upset defeats. And Miami is 17-37 ATS at home vs. a revenge-minded foe off a straight-up loss. Lay the points. |
|||||||
05-21-23 | Celtics v. Heat UNDER 214 | Top | 102-128 | Loss | -110 | 41 h 38 m | Show |
At 8:30 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the UNDER in Game 3 between Boston and Miami. The 2nd game of this Eastern Conference Finals barely went over the total of 215 (by one point), as Miami won, 111-105, as a 10-point road underdog. We'll look for Sunday's game to go under the total, as Boston has gone UNDER 67% since 1991 as a road favorite off back to back losses, when the line was greater than 195 points. Moreover, it is 10-2 UNDER off an upset home playoff defeat. And it's 21-8 UNDER in the Playoffs when the O/U line is 183+ points, if Boston is off back to back defeats. Take the UNDER. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
05-21-23 | Stars +110 v. Golden Knights | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
At 3:05 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Stars over the Vegas Golden Knights. The Knights won Game 1 in this Western Conference finals in what was one of the closest matches of the post-season. These two teams went into overtime tied at 3-3 with the exact same number of shots on goal (36). It didn't take long for Vegas to end it and send their fans home happy. But the Stars know all about this scenario and it likely doesn't bother them one bit. In each of the first two rounds, they dropped the opening game (to the Wild and then the Kraken) and in both cases they came back with an emphatic victory in Game 2 to even things up. The Stars will put Game 1 in their rear view mirror, and take confidence from the fact they went 3-0 vs. Vegas in the regular season. The Stars are 14-5 on the road off a loss, and 6-0 their last six when trailing in a playoff series. And the underdog is also 6-2 in the last eight meetings of these two. Take Dallas. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
05-21-23 | Orioles v. Blue Jays -186 | Top | 8-3 | Loss | -186 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
At 1:35 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Baltimore Orioles. It's been five years since Kevin Gausman pitched wearing an Orioles uniform. The 32-year-old RH was Baltimore's first round draft pick in 2012 as a 21-year-old out of LSU and he made his MLB debut against the Blue Jays almost exactly 10 years ago (May 23, 2013). In those 10 years, Gausman has become one of the most consistent starters in the game despite only being selected to one All Star Team during that time. He'll face his old team today for only the third time with both of those previous starts having come last season -- his first as a member of the Blue Jays. After winning four of his six starts in the month of April, the Jays have now lost each of Gausman's three starts this month (vs. the Red Sox, Phillies, and Yankees). He'll look to bounce back in this afternoon game and that could be the key today as Gausman's career ERA during the day is almost a half-run lower than it is under the lights. Toronto is also 21-9 in its last 30 home games vs. RH starters. Take the Jays. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
05-20-23 | Nuggets v. Lakers -5.5 | Top | 119-108 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 8 m | Show |
At 8:30 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Los Angeles Lakers minus the points over Denver. It's been a case of "close, but no cigar" for the Los Angeles Lakers in this series. They're down 2 games to none but haven't lost against the point spread in either of the first two games. We'll lay the points with the Purple and Gold, and go against the #1-seeded Nuggets. For technical support, consider that NBA #1 seeds have covered just 30 of 80 when up 2-games-to-none, and not laying more than 4 points. And LeBron James' teams have gone 56-29 ATS in the Playoffs when favored by 2 or more points, if they did not have a series lead. Lay the points with Los Angeles. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
05-20-23 | Panthers v. Hurricanes -150 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -150 | 16 h 15 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Hurricanes over the Florida Panthers. If you were wondering what the Panthers were going to do for an encore after upsetting both the Bruins and Maple Leafs, the answer is, well, something pretty spectacular. On Thursday night, the -- once again -- underdog Panthers prevailed in the sixth-longest game in Stanley Cup Playoff history when Matthew Tkachuk scored at 19:47 of the fourth overtime period here in Raleigh to win Game 1, 3-2. If there's one thing the 'Canes won't have any trouble getting tonight in Game 2 it's motivation after that marathon loss. It was Florida's fifth comeback win of the playoffs, and with the victory, the Panthers became just the third team in NHL history to win each of their first five games that required overtime in a single postseason. Carolina out-played and out-shot Florida in Game 1 and should be poised for a big bounce back tonight. The 'Canes are 9-4 in their last 13 revenging a close loss vs opponent of one goal or less. Take Carolina. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
05-19-23 | Stars v. Golden Knights -118 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 18 h 10 m | Show |
At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Vegas Golden Knights over the Dallas Stars. The Knights have made it to their fourth NHL semi-finals in their six-season franchise history -- truly a remarkable feat. They also finished first in their division for the fourth time. In less time than a two-term Presidency, Vegas has assembled not only one of the best teams in the league, but has also shown that T-Mobile Arena is one of the most exciting venues in pro Sports (and one of the toughest for opposing teams). This series is not only a chance for the Knights to earn another shot at an NHL Finals -- but also a shot at some revenge. It was Dallas which knocked them out when they appeared in the semi-finals in 2020. And while the Stars have beaten the Knights the last four times they played, it's Vegas which is on a roll right now, having beaten the Oilers in six games. The Knights are also 4-0 in their last four games vs. teams from the Central Division. Take Vegas. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
05-19-23 | Heat v. Celtics -8.5 | Top | 111-105 | Loss | -110 | 41 h 15 m | Show |
At 8:30 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the Boston Celtics minus the points over Miami. The Celts lost here, at home, 123-116, on Wednesday to Erik Spoelstra's Heat. And that was Boston's 3rd straight defeat at the hands of Miami. We'll take Boston to bounce back from that loss, as it's an awesome 62-29 ATS when playing with double-revenge, if it failed to cover the spread by 10+ points in the prior meeting. And it's 71-41-2 ATS off a home loss, if favored vs. a foe off a win. Finally, Boston's a reliable 10-1 ATS its last 11 off an upset playoff defeat. Lay the points with Jayson Tatum & Co. in Game 2. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
05-19-23 | Rockies v. Rangers -219 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 18 h 40 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Texas Rangers over the Colorado Rockies. Martin Perez began his MLB career at the age of 21 with the Rangers and he stayed with the team for seven seasons. Then after stints with the Twins and Red Sox, Perez came back to Arlington 10 years after he made that debut. In his 2022 campaign -- his first year back with Texas -- all the veteran southpaw starter did was have the best season of his career with a 12-8 record, career-best 2.89 ERA, while making the All Star team for the first time. Now back for a second season with his old club, Perez is out to prove that 2022 was not a fluke. In eight starts, he is 4-1 with a 4.25 ERA in just over 42 innings. His elevated ERA is mostly due to one poor start in Anaheim. And at home this season Perez is 2-0 with a 1.54 ERA. With just two of his eight starts coming here at Globe Life Field so far, Perez is obviously hoping to see more home outings in his future. The Rockies are 3-7 in their last 10 interleague road games, while the Rangers are 5-0 in their last five immediately after allowing five or more runs. Take Texas. As always, good luck...Al McMordie |
|||||||
05-18-23 | Panthers v. Hurricanes -136 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -136 | 17 h 52 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the Carolina Hurricanes over the Florida Panthers. Both of these teams have had a long time to rest and prepare for this Game 1 of the Eastern Conference finals. Florida ousted Toronto last Friday, in Game 5, by a 3-2 score. Carolina also took five games to send New Jersey packing, as it won its quarterfinal Game 5 last Thursday, 3-2. The Hurricanes have been getting terrific goaltending from Frederik Andersen. In his last six games, he's notched five wins, and allowed 1 goal four times, and just 2 goals in another. Unlike Carolina, which is 108-52 (+24.6 net games) off a win (and 58-23 (+17.1 net games) its last 81 off back to back wins), the Panthers are a poor 22-27 (minus 16.3 net games) off a win this season. The Hurricanes are also 9-4 their last 13 home meetings vs. Florida, and 29-4 at home off back to back games where it didn't allow more than 2 goals. Take the Hurricanes. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
05-17-23 | Braves -150 v. Rangers | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 15 h 23 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the Texas Rangers. When a 23-year-old rookie pitcher named Spencer Strider punched out over 200 hitters in just 131 2/3 IP last season, people wondered if it was a fluke. After all, Strider was originally a 35th round draft pick in 2017 (later a 4th round pick out of Clemson) and wasn't considered a top prospect. But this season, the Braves' ace is showing that those numbers are the kind we will need to get used to. After eight starts covering just under 47 innings, Strider leads the league with a 15.2 K rate and his 2.51 ERA is even lower than the number he put up in 2022 when he finished second in the NL Rookie of the Year balloting. In his last start, Strider whiffed 12 batters in just 6 1/3 innings but got no run support from his offense against the Blue Jays in Toronto. Tonight will be his third straight inter-league start and his first start against the Rangers (he has 3 2/3 scoreless relief innings against them). The Braves are 12-4 in Strider's last 16 starts after he allowed one run or less in his last outing. Take Atlanta. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
05-16-23 | Yankees v. Blue Jays -175 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -175 | 18 h 17 m | Show |
At 7:07 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the New York Yankees. The Blue Jays are a team which takes two steps forward and one step back. After sweeping three games against the Pirates, the Jays lost a two-game series to the Phillies. Then they swept the Braves over the weekend (three more wins). Last night, they welcomed their division rival for a crucial four-game series while riding high. So how did they do in Game 1? Not so good. The Yankees beat them Monday, 7-4. Enter RH ace Kevin Gausman for Game 2. Through eight starts, Gausman has a 3.38 ERA and a league-leading 67 strikeouts (vs. only seven walks) resulting in a career-best 9.57 K:BB ratio. But he -- like his team -- is struggling with consistency logging a 2-3 record so far. In his career, Gausman has nine wins vs. the Yanks (to go with seven losses) and that's the most victories he has against anyone in the American League. Gausman didn't allow a run on three hits in six IP in his last outing but still came away with a no-decision. The Jays are 11-5 in Gausman's last 16 starts after he didn't allow a run in his previous outing. And the Yankees are a dreadful 3-12 in Domingo German's nighttime starts, and 0-3 in his last three starts vs. the Blue Jays. Take Toronto. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
05-15-23 | Seattle Kraken v. Stars -200 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 8 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Stars over the Seattle Kraken. The clock may strike midnight soon for the Cinderella story that is the 2022-2023 Seattle Kraken. Even if their season ends tonight -- which it likely will -- you can't deny that it's been a ride unlike almost any other for a second-year expansion Franchise. Not only did the Kraken finish their sophomore regular season with a 46-28-8 record but at one point they won eight games in a row and that string included seven-in-a-row on the the road -- the first time that's been done in League history. But Dallas is just a notch above Seattle. The Kraken are just 10-22 in their last 32 vs. teams with a winning record, and 15-19 (minus 4.5 net games) off a blowout win by 3+ goals. Meanwhile Dallas is 26-13 (+5.8 net games) off a loss. Take Dallas in Game 7. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|
|||||||
05-15-23 | Angels -122 v. Orioles | Top | 9-5 | Win | 100 | 4 h 11 m | Show |
At 6:35 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Angels over the Baltimore Orioles. We've all but run out of superlatives to describe what Angels' superstar Shohei Ohtani has done since he came over from Japan. The 28-year-old from Oshu is the greatest two-way player in Baseball history -- although that list is pretty short -- and he likely isn't done re-writing the record books as he progresses through his sixth MLB season. He'll get his ninth start of the season -- his first against this strong and youthful Orioles lineup. Through eight starts, Ohtani is 4-1 with a stellar 2.74 ERA and 0.93 WHIP with a league-leading 12.9 strikeout rate. The O's took another series over the weekend -- their 10th series win this season -- against the Pirates, and their 26-14 start is one of the best in franchise history through the first 40 games. Whether the upstart O's can keep it going remains to be seen, but the players, coaches, and fans will enjoy the ride as long as it lasts. The Angels are 6-1 in Ohtani's last seven starts, and 36-17 (+7.5 net games) behind Ohtani as a favorite (compared to 6-12 (minus 4.9 games) as an underdog. Take Los Angeles. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
05-14-23 | Golden Knights v. Oilers -180 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -180 | 19 h 31 m | Show |
At 10 pm, our selection is on the Edmonton Oilers over the Vegas Golden Knights. While almost none of the other second-round series in the NHL playoffs have gone according to plan, this one has for the most part. The Knights and Oilers traded Game 2 and 3 losses at home, but the home teams got back on track in Games 4 and 5 and as a result, Vegas is now one win away from returning to the Conference Finals for the third time in its six-year history. Jack Eichel was the hero in Game 5, tallying three points to get the Knights the win. But the Oilers can feel good about the fact that they put 35 shots on goal in that game, four more than they allowed their opponent. And Captain Connor McDavid appears to be heating up as he had a pair of goals on Friday but his team fell just short in the 4-3 defeat on the Strip. At home it should be a different story as the Oilers are 12-3 in their last 15 games here at Rogers Centre. Edmonton is also 26-8 in its last 34 games vs. Western Conference foes. Take the Oilers. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
05-14-23 | 76ers v. Celtics UNDER 203 | Top | 88-112 | Win | 100 | 64 h 43 m | Show |
On Sunday, at 3:30 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Boston Celtics/Philadelphia 76ers Game 7. These two Atlantic Division rivals played an exceptionally low scoring Game 6, won by Boston, 95-86. We played on the under in that game, and easily won, as it went UNDER the total of 210.5 by 29.5 points. Understandably, the number for this Game 7 has been set lower by the oddsmakers, but it's still too high. Philadelphia has gone 31-17 UNDER away from home vs. division rivals, while Boston has gone 19-10 Under at home vs. division rivals when the O/U line was less than 213. We'll once again take the UNDER in this rivalry playoff game. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
05-14-23 | Astros -128 v. White Sox | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Chicago White Sox. No doubt, Astros fans were sorry to see multiple Cy Young winner and future Hall-of-Famer Justin Verlander exit. But every time young Hunter Brown takes the mound, they must be feeling a bit better. While Verlander is the past of this team, Brown -- and a host of other young arms -- is the future. The 24-year-old RHP put up a 0.89 ERA in a seven game "teaser" last season and while nobody was quite sure what role he would take on, when Verlander left via free agency, it meant that Brown would be given every chance to prove himself as a regular starter. And prove himself he has so far as the former 5th round pick is 3-1 with a 3.23 ERA in seven starts covering 39 innings coming into this afternoon. 78-year-old manager Tony La Russa is gone but that hasn't changed the White Sox fortunes. In fact, the Sox are having one of their worst campaigns in recent memory so far (14-27). Of note, Chicago is 5-16 in its last 21 games vs. teams with a winning record. Take the Astros. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
05-12-23 | Royals v. Brewers -212 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 16 h 42 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over Kansas City. The Royals will start southpaw Josh Taylor, who has a 6.55 ERA this season, with a 1.36 WHIP. His last (and only) MLB start was on August 31, 2019, as a member of the Red Sox. All of his other 129 career appearances were in relief. Boston lost to the Los Angeles Angels, 10-4, in that game. This will be former Cy Young Award-Winner, Corbin Burnes' 3rd start vs. the Royals. And he was great over his previous two, as he allowed 2 runs over 12 innings (1.50 ERA), with 18 strikeouts, and just 1 walk, and 6 hits (0.58 WHIP). The Royals are an ugly 20-64 (minus 26.7 net games) as an underdog of +150 (or more), while Milwaukee is a stellar 101-31 (plus 29.1 net games) as a favorite of -200 (or more), including 17-4 when Burnes is on the mound. |
Register for an Account Now for Free Picks and More Special Offers!
Big Al McMordie ALL Sports Top Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
07-22-23 | Giants -182 v. Nationals | Top | 1-10 | Loss | -182 | 15 h 26 m | Show |
07-22-23 | Blue Jays -135 v. Mariners | Top | 8-9 | Loss | -135 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
07-21-23 | Orioles v. Rays -148 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 17 h 48 m | Show |
07-21-23 | Rockies v. Marlins -225 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -225 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
07-20-23 | Diamondbacks v. Braves -179 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
07-19-23 | Astros -146 v. Rockies | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
07-18-23 | Diamondbacks v. Braves -197 | Top | 16-13 | Loss | -197 | 19 h 17 m | Show |
07-17-23 | Rays -118 v. Rangers | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -118 | 16 h 20 m | Show |
07-16-23 | Brewers v. Reds -120 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
07-16-23 | White Sox v. Braves -160 | Top | 8-1 | Loss | -160 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
07-15-23 | Brewers v. Reds -113 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -113 | 18 h 17 m | Show |
07-14-23 | Yankees -190 v. Rockies | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -190 | 24 h 47 m | Show |
07-09-23 | Blue Jays -123 v. Tigers | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
07-09-23 | Braves v. Rays -118 | Top | 4-10 | Win | 100 | 3 h 38 m | Show |
07-08-23 | Cubs v. Yankees -173 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
07-07-23 | Pirates v. Diamondbacks -225 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 17 h 12 m | Show |
07-06-23 | Blue Jays -120 v. White Sox | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
07-05-23 | Mariners v. Giants -152 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
07-04-23 | Phillies v. Rays -107 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
07-03-23 | Mariners v. Giants -131 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -131 | 16 h 34 m | Show |
07-02-23 | Dodgers -188 v. Royals | Top | 1-9 | Loss | -188 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
07-02-23 | Red Sox v. Blue Jays -178 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -178 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
07-01-23 | Nationals v. Phillies -198 | Top | 4-19 | Win | 100 | 14 h 17 m | Show |
06-30-23 | Astros v. Rangers -149 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -149 | 16 h 22 m | Show |
06-29-23 | White Sox v. Angels -140 | Top | 9-7 | Loss | -140 | 15 h 14 m | Show |
06-28-23 | Reds v. Orioles -162 | Top | 11-7 | Loss | -162 | 18 h 24 m | Show |
06-27-23 | Reds +129 v. Orioles | Top | 3-1 | Win | 129 | 17 h 8 m | Show |
06-26-23 | White Sox v. Angels -128 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 18 h 24 m | Show |
06-25-23 | Brewers -107 v. Guardians | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
06-24-23 | A's v. Blue Jays -243 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 15 h 52 m | Show |
06-23-23 | Braves -150 v. Reds | Top | 10-11 | Loss | -150 | 15 h 13 m | Show |
06-23-23 | Royals v. Rays -255 | Top | 3-11 | Win | 100 | 15 h 12 m | Show |
06-22-23 | Padres -118 v. Giants | Top | 10-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
06-21-23 | Orioles v. Rays -138 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 7 h 38 m | Show |
06-20-23 | Dodgers -132 v. Angels | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 14 h 0 m | Show |
06-19-23 | Diamondbacks +113 v. Brewers | Top | 9-1 | Win | 113 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
06-18-23 | Reds v. Astros -140 | Top | 9-7 | Loss | -140 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
06-17-23 | Blue Jays v. Rangers -120 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 4 h 26 m | Show |
06-16-23 | Tigers v. Twins -220 | Top | 7-1 | Loss | -220 | 7 h 11 m | Show |
06-16-23 | Blue Jays -137 v. Rangers | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 18 h 38 m | Show |
06-15-23 | Angels +110 v. Rangers | Top | 5-3 | Win | 110 | 8 h 36 m | Show |
06-14-23 | Rays -260 v. A's | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 17 h 45 m | Show |
06-14-23 | Angels v. Rangers -140 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 15 h 9 m | Show |
06-14-23 | Braves -190 v. Tigers | Top | 10-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
06-13-23 | Panthers +1.5 v. Golden Knights | Top | 3-9 | Loss | -170 | 15 h 5 m | Show |
06-13-23 | Nationals v. Astros -248 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 15 h 55 m | Show |
06-12-23 | Heat v. Nuggets UNDER 208.5 | Top | 89-94 | Win | 100 | 67 h 23 m | Show |
06-12-23 | Braves -225 v. Tigers | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -225 | 6 h 27 m | Show |
06-11-23 | Mets v. Pirates -116 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
06-10-23 | Golden Knights v. Panthers -110 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 5 m | Show |
06-10-23 | A's v. Brewers -174 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -174 | 15 h 54 m | Show |
06-09-23 | Nuggets v. Heat +3.5 | Top | 108-95 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 52 m | Show |
06-09-23 | Rangers +152 v. Rays | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 53 m | Show |
06-08-23 | Golden Knights v. Panthers -118 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 19 h 60 m | Show |
06-08-23 | White Sox v. Yankees -120 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 3 h 51 m | Show |
06-08-23 | Orioles -112 v. Brewers | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
06-07-23 | Nuggets -135 v. Heat | Top | 109-94 | Win | 100 | 64 h 9 m | Show |
06-06-23 | White Sox v. Yankees -165 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -165 | 18 h 35 m | Show |
06-05-23 | Panthers +124 v. Golden Knights | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 56 m | Show |
06-04-23 | Guardians v. Twins -163 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -163 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
06-03-23 | Panthers +118 v. Golden Knights | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 31 m | Show |
06-02-23 | Brewers -175 v. Reds | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 17 h 3 m | Show |
06-01-23 | Heat v. Nuggets -8.5 | Top | 93-104 | Win | 100 | 67 h 54 m | Show |
05-31-23 | Yankees v. Mariners -133 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 18 h 54 m | Show |
05-30-23 | Braves -245 v. A's | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -245 | 20 h 58 m | Show |
05-29-23 | Heat v. Celtics UNDER 203.5 | Top | 103-84 | Win | 100 | 44 h 10 m | Show |
05-29-23 | Pirates v. Giants -134 | Top | 4-14 | Win | 100 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
05-28-23 | Phillies v. Braves -242 | Top | 4-11 | Win | 100 | 18 h 31 m | Show |
05-27-23 | Marlins v. Angels -184 | Top | 8-5 | Loss | -184 | 20 h 12 m | Show |
05-27-23 | Celtics v. Heat UNDER 211.5 | Top | 104-103 | Win | 100 | 44 h 52 m | Show |
05-26-23 | Astros -257 v. A's | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 20 h 37 m | Show |
05-26-23 | Blue Jays -145 v. Twins | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 18 h 4 m | Show |
05-25-23 | Heat v. Celtics -7.5 | Top | 97-110 | Win | 100 | 27 h 38 m | Show |
05-25-23 | Heat v. Celtics UNDER 215.5 | Top | 97-110 | Win | 100 | 26 h 20 m | Show |
05-25-23 | Golden Knights v. Stars -110 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 17 h 51 m | Show |
05-24-23 | Blue Jays v. Rays -192 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 15 h 33 m | Show |
05-23-23 | Celtics +2 v. Heat | Top | 116-99 | Win | 100 | 15 h 19 m | Show |
05-23-23 | Celtics v. Heat UNDER 216.5 | Top | 116-99 | Win | 100 | 15 h 16 m | Show |
05-23-23 | Golden Knights v. Stars -137 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -137 | 15 h 51 m | Show |
05-23-23 | Dodgers v. Braves -194 | Top | 8-1 | Loss | -194 | 14 h 58 m | Show |
05-22-23 | Hurricanes -101 v. Panthers | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -101 | 15 h 50 m | Show |
05-22-23 | Blue Jays +112 v. Rays | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
05-21-23 | Celtics -3 v. Heat | Top | 102-128 | Loss | -110 | 41 h 39 m | Show |
05-21-23 | Celtics v. Heat UNDER 214 | Top | 102-128 | Loss | -110 | 41 h 38 m | Show |
05-21-23 | Stars +110 v. Golden Knights | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
05-21-23 | Orioles v. Blue Jays -186 | Top | 8-3 | Loss | -186 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
05-20-23 | Nuggets v. Lakers -5.5 | Top | 119-108 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 8 m | Show |
05-20-23 | Panthers v. Hurricanes -150 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -150 | 16 h 15 m | Show |
05-19-23 | Stars v. Golden Knights -118 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 18 h 10 m | Show |
05-19-23 | Heat v. Celtics -8.5 | Top | 111-105 | Loss | -110 | 41 h 15 m | Show |
05-19-23 | Rockies v. Rangers -219 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 18 h 40 m | Show |
05-18-23 | Panthers v. Hurricanes -136 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -136 | 17 h 52 m | Show |
05-17-23 | Braves -150 v. Rangers | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 15 h 23 m | Show |
05-16-23 | Yankees v. Blue Jays -175 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -175 | 18 h 17 m | Show |
05-15-23 | Seattle Kraken v. Stars -200 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 8 m | Show |
05-15-23 | Angels -122 v. Orioles | Top | 9-5 | Win | 100 | 4 h 11 m | Show |
05-14-23 | Golden Knights v. Oilers -180 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -180 | 19 h 31 m | Show |
05-14-23 | 76ers v. Celtics UNDER 203 | Top | 88-112 | Win | 100 | 64 h 43 m | Show |
05-14-23 | Astros -128 v. White Sox | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
05-12-23 | Royals v. Brewers -212 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 16 h 42 m | Show |