Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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08-10-21 | Angels +136 v. Blue Jays | Top | 6-3 | Win | 136 | 9 h 0 m | Show |
At 6:05 pm, in Game 1 of the Double-Header, our selection is on the Los Angeles Angels over the Toronto Blue Jays. This game is between two teams that are desperately trying to stay in the playoff chase in their respective divisions. The thing that's different about Game 1 is the fact that although today's twin-bill is being played at Angels Stadium, Toronto is the "home" team in the opener which means the Angels will bat first and can potentially give young rookie RHP Chris Rodriguez some runs -- and extra confidence -- before he takes the mound. For the purposes of today's game, it's most useful to look at the 22-year-old's last outing on August 2 which was his first start of the season. In that one, Rodriguez threw six efficient innings (86 pitches) allowing three earned runs on four hits with seven strikeouts and two walks. Heading into this critical four-game series, the Halos are 8-2 in the last 10 meetings with the Jays and 20-8 in the last 28 "road" meetings. L.A. is also 10-1 in its last 11 opening games of a double-header. Take the Angels. |
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08-10-21 | Brewers -208 v. Cubs | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 17 m | Show |
At 2:20 pm, in Game 1 of their double-header, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Chicago Cubs. The Brew Crew must be considered serious contenders this season, given their pitching staff. In addition to this afternoon's starter - Freddy Peralta -- the Brewers boast top-flight starters in Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff and Adrian Houser. This will be Peralta's 21st start of the season, and Milwaukee has won 14 of his first 20. His ERA is a solid 2.25, with a spectacular 0.86 WHIP. He's also dominated the division rival Cubs this season, as the Brewers have won all four of Peralta's starts (21 IP, 10 Hits, 5 ER, 33 strikeouts). We'll take Milwaukee this afternoon vs. Chicago, as Milwaukee's won the last five meetings by a combined score of 41-15. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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08-09-21 | Yankees -165 v. Royals | Top | 8-6 | Win | 100 | 18 h 22 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Kansas City Royals. After Jameson Taillon had his second Tommy John surgery, he decided to sit out the entire 2020 season. Little did he know that that would be his last season with Pirates as, at the beginning of this season, the 29-year-old was traded to the New York Yankees. No doubt Taillon is happy to be with a winning organization and his 7-4 record and 4.04 ERA in 21 starts is proof that he has responded positively to the change of scenery. Taillon will get his 22nd start of the season tonight in Kansas City, a city he's not pitched in before. He may have never thrown a pitch in Kauffman Stadium, but Taillon is 1-0 with a 0.68 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in two starts against the Royals covering 13 1/3 innings. Moreover, although his record on the season may be only 7-4, the Yankees have been dominating with Taillon on the mound recently, going 7-1 in his last eight trips to the hill. The Yanks are also 7-2 in the last nine meetings with the Royals and 4-1 in the last five in Kansas City. Finally, the Yankees are 46-24 at night (compared to 15-26 in the daytime). Take New York. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-08-21 | Mets +1.5 v. Phillies | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -130 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets +1.5 runs over the Philadelphia Phillies. On Saturday, the Phils won their 7th straight game, with a 5-3 decision over the visiting Mets. We'll take New York on the run-line in this final game of the 3-game series. Taijuan Walker will toe the rubber for New York this afternoon. And the Mets have won all four of his starts vs. the Phillies in his career (2.95 ERA; 1.12 WHIP) and they've won 22 of his last 32 starts, overall. For the season, Walker's WHIP is a very good 1.22. And Philly is a dreadful 35-63 (minus 29.5 games on the moneyline) in National League games vs. a pitcher with a WHIP of 1.25 (or better). Take the Mets +1.5 runs in this early afternoon game on Sunday. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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08-07-21 | Diamondbacks v. Padres -276 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 15 h 34 m | Show |
At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres minus 1.5 runs over the Arizona Diamondbacks. San Diego's been installed as a big favorite tonight in this game, which features the Padres' RHP Yu Darvish vs. the D-Backs' RHP, Taylor Widener. Darvish has made eight prior starts vs. Arizona, and he is a solid 4-1, with a 3.11 ERA. Historically, Arizona has been awful as an underdog. Even though we're playing the Padres on the run-line this evening, it's worth noting that, this season, the DBacks are 24-66 as a dog, minus 31.2 net games on the moneyline. And they're 18-85 their last 103 as a dog of +200 or higher (minus 45.2 net games on the moneyline). We'll take the Padres -1.5 runs tonight, as they're 10-2 this season as a home favorite with Darvish on the mound. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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08-07-21 | Twins v. Astros -190 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 4 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Minnesota Twins. The Twins will start Michael Pineda tonight. He's made 10 prior starts vs. Houston, and he's compiled an ugly 5.18 ERA, with a 1.30 WHIP. His teams have won just three of those 10 games. And in his career he's cashed just 16% when priced as an underdog of +150 (or higher). Minnesota is a soft 11-20 (minus 4.4 games on the moneyline) as a road underdog this season, while Houston is 113-52 (+10.2 games on the moneyline) as a home favorite. Take the Astros. |
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08-07-21 | Mets -102 v. Phillies | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -102 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
At 4:15 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the Philadelphia Phillies. With injuries to Vince Velazquez and Zach Eflin, the Phillies have had to dig deep into their pitching reserves to come up with a starter for tonight's game against the Mets. They think they've found one in 25-year-old Venezuelan LH Ranger Suarez. Suarez was used exclusively as a reliever until last Monday when he got the call against the Nationals. He only went three innings in that one so expect a similar outing tonight. Going opposite Suarez will be red-hot rookie RH Tylor Megill of the Mets. Megill is 1-1 with a 2.68 ERA in eight starts covering 40 1/3 innings. This will be the 26-year-old's first career start against the Phillies and despite Megill having only one victory on his ledger coming in, the Mets are 6-2 in his starts. Additionally, the Mets are 7-4 in the last 11 meetings, and are 16-8 in their last 24 games against teams with a winning record (including 6-2 in their last eight road games vs. winning foes). Take New York. |
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08-06-21 | Diamondbacks v. Padres -201 | Top | 8-5 | Loss | -201 | 20 h 15 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the Arizona Diamondbacks. As the season wears on, it appears more and more likely that both NL Wild Card teams will come from the West. But while the Giants and Dodgers continue their winning ways, the Padres are having some issues and are starting to fall further behind in the Division. The next two weeks are critical for the Pads as they have series against losing teams (the D-Backs, Marlins, Rockies). Tonight it will be 21-year-old rookie LH Ryan Weathers going to mound for the home team. Weathers has been a nice surprise for San Diego, logging a 4-3 record with a 3.65 ERA in 19 games -- 13 starts -- covering 66 2/3 innings. This will be Weathers first "real" start against Arizona. He had a scoreless relief appearance and picked up the save vs. the D-Backs in his first game of the season and then acted as an opener against them on April 28, throwing a scoreless inning in a 12-3 San Diego romp. The D-Backs are 2-6 in the last eight meetings at Petco. Take the Padres. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-06-21 | Twins v. Astros -216 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -216 | 18 h 16 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Minnesota Twins. Over the years, I've loved to back Zack Greinke at home, as he's been phenomenal in that role (and especially when favored by -150 (or more), as he's 97-32 (+37.4 net games)). The Astros are also 57-18 as a home favorite of -200 (or more). Lay the big price. |
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08-06-21 | Red Sox +132 v. Blue Jays | Top | 4-12 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 13 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over the Toronto Blue Jays. Boston's Nathan Eovaldi made his first career All Star game appearance last month. His selection was based on a first half that included a 9-5 record and a 3.66 ERA in 18 starts. But since then, victories have been elusive for the 31-year-old RH as he is win-less in three second-half starts. The good news is, that despite the victory drought, Eovaldi has pitched very well so it seems clear that the wins will come -- hopefully sooner rather than later if the Sox are to keep up with the Rays in the AL East. His 22nd start will come tonight against a Jays team that he's had some success against. Although Eovaldi is just 1-1 lifetime against Toronto (eight appearances; seven starts), his teams have won four of his last five starts vs. the Jays going back to May of 2016 when he was a member of the Yankees. The Sox are 5-2 in the last seven meetings with the Jays and 37-16 in the last 53 in Toronto. Take Boston. |
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08-06-21 | Mets -100 v. Phillies | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 12 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the Philadelphia Phillies. After stints with the Twins (seven seasons) and the Rangers (the better part of two seasons), Kyle Gibson now finds himself back with the team that originally drafted him in 2006. The Phillies traded for the 33-year-old RHP at the deadline in an effort to shore up their rotation. But despite Gibson's recent success with Texas, this is still a pitcher with a losing career record (76-77) and an ERA right around four-and-a-half runs. The Jury is still out as to whether Gibson will be much help to a Phillies club that is struggling to stay above the .500 mark. Marcus Stroman will get his 23rd start tonight. Despite a 7-10 record, the veteran RH has sharp 2.80 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 122 innings. In nine career appearances against the Phils (seven starts), Stroman is 4-3 with a 2.50 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in just under 40 innings. Stroman loves pitching at Citizens Bank Park as he is 2-1 with a 1.47 ERA in four games here (three starts) covering 18 1/3 innings. Take the Mets. |
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08-06-21 | White Sox -149 v. Cubs | Top | 8-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
At 2:20 pm, our selection is on the Chicago White Sox over the Chicago Cubs. Lance Lynn has been one of the best pitchers this season. In 19 starts, his ERA is 2.07, with a 1.05 WHIP. And in daytime starts, he has a 1.37 ERA, with an 0.84 WHIP. It doesn't get any better than that. He'll match up against the Cubbies' Kyle Hendricks this afternoon. Hendricks has underperformed here at home this season, as his ERA is north of 4 runs a game (4.37), while his WHIP is 1.35. Even worse: Hendricks' career ERA vs. the ChiSox is 3.75, while his teams have won just two of his eight starts. With the Cubs a dreadful 30-56 (minus 20.6 games on the moneyline as an underdog of +150 (or less), we'll fade the Cubs in this home underdog role this afternoon. |
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08-05-21 | Royals v. White Sox -182 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -182 | 14 h 21 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago White Sox over the Kansas City Royals. At age 33, Dallas Keuchel no longer possesses the skills to be a #1 or #2 starter. The good news for the veteran LH now is that on this White Sox team, he doesn't have to be. In fact with the emergence of Dylan Cease and Carlos Rodon, Keuchel can enjoy life at the back-end of a stacked rotation that is almost certainly headed for a long post-season run. The acquisition of Ryan Tepera and Craig Kimbrel from the Cubs have made the Sox a team with few if any holes right now. Keuchel goes in start number 21 tonight in the third game of this home series vs. KC. He did lose to the Royals two starts back on the road. However, for his career, Keuchel is 6-2 vs. the Royals with a 2.76 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 12 starts covering 75 innings. Additionally, this season, Keuchel is 4-1 with a 4.21 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 11 games (10 starts) here at Guaranteed Rate Field vs. just 3-3 and 4.88 with a 1.49 WHIP in 10 starts on the road. Finally, his mound opponent, Daniel Lynch, was bombed by Chicago back on May 8. He didn't make it out of the first inning, as he gave up 8 runs in 2/3 of an inning (107.46 ERA), in a 9-1 defeat. Notwithstanding its lost last night to Carlos Hernandez, the Sox are still 35-12 their last 47 vs. lefties. Take the White Sox. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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08-05-21 | Mariners +1.5 v. Yankees | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners +1.5 RUNS over the New York Yankees. The Mariners must have felt pretty good about their starting pitching at the trade deadline. They picked up two impact relievers in Diego Castillo and Joe Smith but only one starter. And exactly who was the big rotation gain for the Mariners? None other than Tyler Anderson. If you aren't blown away when you hear the name of the former Rockies/Giants/Pirates starter, you're not alone. But Seattle got Anderson for next to nothing and there are some things to like about the 31-year-old. First, there's the obvious fact that he is a southpaw. Next is the fact that he is a veteran with four solid pitches in his arsenal. Finally, Anderson has managed to stay completely healthy since the 2019 season and the number of starters who can say that seem to be fewer and fewer these days. Seattle comes in having taken two of three from the Rays and it is 6-1 in its last seven road contests playing teams with a winning record. Although we are taking Seattle on the Run-Line tonight, it's certainly worth noting that it's been very competitive as a huge underdog, going 18-17 (+14.1 net games on the moneyline) when priced at +150 or more. Meanwhile, the Yankees are a wallet-busting 14-14 (minus 12.5 games on the moneyline) when priced as a favorite of -150 or more. Take the Mariners +1.5 runs. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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08-04-21 | Giants -171 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 7-1 | Win | 100 | 15 h 48 m | Show |
At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Giants over the Arizona Diamondbacks. Of all the things the Braves wish they could have done differently a few years ago (as they head towards a sub-.500 season), the biggest regret just might be placing Kevin Gausman on waivers in 2019. Gausman was claimed by the Reds prior to being signed by the Giants at the end of that year. The patience exercised by San Francisco -- which Atlanta apparently didn't have -- is paying off big time this season. In 21 starts covering 126 1/3 innings, the RH is 9-5 with a 2.35 ERA and 0.95 WHIP and has to be considered one of the favorites for the NL Cy Young. Start number 22 comes tonight against a Diamondbacks team which Gausman has already defeated twice in 2021. Moreover, in seven career games vs. Arizona (six starts) Gausman is 4-1 with a 2.39 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in just under 38 innings (while Arizona's Zac Gallen is 1-4 vs. SF, with a 5.16 ERA in five starts). Despite losing on Tuesday, the Giants are 35-17 in the last 52 meetings with the D-Backs (including 10-2 this season), and 56-28 in the last 84 in Arizona. Finally, the D-Backs are a woeful 9-37 (minus 20.5 games on the moneyline) when priced as an underdog of +150 (or more) this season. Take San Francisco. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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08-04-21 | Mets -152 v. Marlins | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the Miami Marlins. An emotional 2019 campaign in which he survived cancer gave way to a pandemic-shortened 2020 comeback season for veteran RHP Carlos Carrasco. Then more emotion at the start of 2021 when Carrasco was sent from Cleveland to New York as part of the blockbuster trade which also transported Francisco Lindor to the Mets. But a hamstring injury in the spring delayed Carrasco's Big Apple debut, as he missed the entire first half of the season. No doubt, fans and coaches alike were on pins and needles as Carrasco finally got his first 2021 start last Friday. And he did not disappoint. Carrasco threw four solid innings at home against the Reds, allowing just one run on three hits with four strikeouts. I expect Carrasco to be stretched out to more than the 58 pitches he threw in that game last week. And tonight, he'll be facing a team which he's dominated in his career. In two starts vs. the Marlins covering 11 1/3 innings, Carrasco has not allowed a run, with 15 strikeouts and only one walk. Finally, Carrasco's teams are a fantastic 26-8 as a road favorite, priced from -125 to -175, with him on the hill, while the Marlins are 1-6 as an underdog behind Zach Thompson. Take the Mets. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-03-21 | Mets -160 v. Marlins | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -160 | 6 h 4 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the Miami Marlins. One player who is probably glad to see July come to an end is the Mets' Taijuan Walker. The 28-year-old RH ended the month of June with a 6-3 record and a sparkling 2.38 ERA in 14 starts. But fast forward to now, and Walker is 7-5 and his ERA has risen all the way to 3.71 due to a mostly-disastrous last 31 days. Walker will try to get back to his earlier form now that August is here and he'll kick things off with his 20th start of the season, and it will come against the Marlins. Walker also faced Miami in his first start of the season and he tossed six quality innings at home against the Fish, allowing two runs on four hits in a 3-2 Mets victory. A repeat of that performance -- this time in south Florida -- would be just what the doctor ordered for Walker who is hoping to have an impact the rest of the season and into the playoffs. Despite their win on Monday, the Marlins are just 4-8 in their last 12 home games and 3-6 in their last nine vs. teams with winning records. Take the Mets. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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08-03-21 | Orioles v. Yankees -1.5 | Top | 1-13 | Win | 100 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees minus 1.5 runs over the Baltimore Orioles. Gerrit Cole was supposed to get the start tonight, but he contracted COVID-19, so he will be quarantined. Instead, top prospect Luis Gill will be on the hill for the Pinstripes on Tuesday. But maybe that's not such a bad thing, given that Cole and the Yankees were bombed, 14-0, in his start at Tampa last Thursday. And New York has dropped five of Cole's last seven starts, overall. Gil has been tabbed as the best pitching prospect in the Yankees system. His fastball gets up to the mid-90s, and he averaged 14.7 strikeouts/9-innings at AA Somerset (2.64 ERA) before moving up to AAA Scranton, where his numbers did take a hit (5.64 ERA). Still, the 23-year-old is ultra-talented. He'll match up against Baltimore's young Australian southpaw, Alexander Wells, on this Tuesday night. Wells started 2021 in AAA Norfolk, and had a less-than-mediocre stint there, as his ERA was 5.63 in eight appearances (though his K:BB ratio was solid). Notwithstanding that relative lack of success, Wells was called up to the Majors on June 25, and he made his MLB debut vs. the Blue Jays the next day. Overall, Wells' ERA is 5.28, while his WHIP is 1.70. Neither of those are surprising given his minor league stats, and I believe he'll struggle tonight vs. the Yankees, who are 36-11 as a home favorite priced at -200 (or more). Lay the 1.5 runs on Tuesday. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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08-02-21 | Mariners +143 v. Rays | Top | 8-2 | Win | 143 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners over the Tampa Bay Rays. The surprising Mariners added an arm to their rotation at the deadline in the form of LHP Tyler Anderson from the Pirates. They also added a bullpen arm, acquiring Diego Castillo from the Rays. But Seattle did not improve the offense and those pitching moves have to be considered minor at this point. With the M's falling further behind in the AL West, you have to assume they are putting their faith in their youngsters, some of which have already made an impact this season. Chris Flexen will get his 20th start of the season tonight. The 27-year-old's decision to play in Korea in 2020 after being released by the Mets the year before is looking like a brilliant move right now. After having a very successful campaign overseas, Flexen was signed by the M's and is having his best season in the Majors by far. In 19 starts, Flexen is 9-5 with a 3.81 ERA and the M's are 13-6 in his starts (+9.8 games on the moneyline). This season, Flexen has been the 3rd most profitable starter in all of baseball to bet on. Seattle is 21-8 in the last 29 meetings (including a 4-0 sweep of Tampa in June), and 14-5 in the last 19 in St. Pete. In one of those wins earlier this season, Seattle roughed up Tampa starter Michael Wacha for five runs and 11 hits over 3 2/3 innings. Wacha's career ERA is 8.25 vs. Seattle. Take the underdog Mariners. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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08-02-21 | Mets -133 v. Marlins | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -133 | 3 h 37 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the Miami Marlins. This will be an action play, as we won't list either pitcher (the Mets are scheduled to start Tylor Megill, while the Marlins will either start a reliever, or call up a pitcher from the minors). Miami scored just one run on Sunday, and has tallied just four runs over their last three games. Certainly, the Marlins' trades last week of OF Adam Duvall and OF Starling Marte (their best positional player) contributed to this recent offensive drought. The Mets got a big boost to their offense with the addition of IF Javier Baez from the Cubs but they did not land a big starting pitcher at the trade deadline. Part of their thinking was that they will be getting Jacob deGrom back, but word just came two days ago that the best pitcher in the game has suffered a setback and deGrom will likely now miss all of August. No doubt the Mets are glad that a guy like RH rookie Megill has come out of nowhere to be a huge factor in their rotation since the end of June. The 26-year-old just looked like another average starter through two June starts but July was another story. Megill went 1-0 with a 2.04 ERA and and 1.08 WHIP in five July starts covering 26 innings. More importantly is the fact that including those two June outings, the Mets are 6-1 in Megill's games heading into start number eight tonight. The Marlins are 13-40 after scoring less than three runs in their previous game, and 50-85 (minus 12.2 games on the moneyline) as a home dog priced from +125 to +175. Take New York. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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08-01-21 | Red Sox +146 v. Rays | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over the Tampa Bay Rays. RHP Nick Pivetta only had two starts with the Red Sox last season after coming over from the Phillies in a trade at the end of August. But those two starts were very good and seemed to point to a potential break-out campaign this season. That breakout hasn't happened and the 28-year-old Canadian has struggled at times despite some very good run support from his offense. In 20 starts covering 107 2/3 innings, Pivetta is 8-4 with a 4.51 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. But one team Pivetta hasn't struggled against is the Rays. In two starts vs. Tampa covering 11 2/3 innings this season, Pivetta has yet to allow a run while surrendering just two hits and striking out 12 Rays batters. One of those outings was at Tropicana Field and Pivetta will try to build on those numbers here again tonight in prime time. Boston has excelled in division games, as the Sox are 29-13 in their last 42 games vs. teams from the AL East. Take Boston. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-01-21 | Rockies v. Padres -165 | Top | 1-8 | Win | 100 | 8 h 33 m | Show |
At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the Colorado Rockies. Reiss Knehr was the 20th round selection by the Padres in the 2018 June Amateur Draft. The 24-year-old RHP tore his way through the Minors and finally got his call to join the Show this season. An oblique injury to Chris Paddack has given Knehr the opportunity to join the Big League club and with the Padres not picking up any starting pitchers at the recently-concluded trade deadline, Knehr could be in the rotation for the foreseeable future. Knehr's first career MLB start was July 9 and it just happened to be right here against this afternoon's opponent, the Rockies. The Pads won that game 4-2 although Knehr didn't factor in the decision. He's looking for his first MLB victory in a repeat of that game today. Despite their wins on Friday and Saturday, the Rockies are just 3-10 in the last 13 meetings with the Pads here at Petco Park. Take San Diego. |
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08-01-21 | Astros +100 v. Giants | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 27 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the San Francisco Giants. The Astros took the "if it ain't broke, don't fix it" approach at the trade deadline. It appears the only deal that the first place Astros made last week was acquiring pitchers Kendall Graveman and Rafael Montero from Seattle on Tuesday. With a pretty cozy 5 1/2 game lead in AL West, the 'Stros no doubt figured they were in a pretty good place and didn't need more than some minor tweaks. This series with the Giants could be a World Series preview and although that would have sounded like a crazy proposition a few months ago, it sure doesn't seem so nutty right now. Houston will go with RHP Luis Garcia this afternoon. The 24-year-old, second year rookie came out of nowhere this season to make quite an impact in a rotation that was already pretty solid. In 19 games (17 starts), Garcia is 7-5 with a 3.19 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 96 innings. In two previous inter-league starts this season, Garcia is 1-1 with a 2.31 ERA in 11 2/3 innings. Take Houston. |
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07-31-21 | Rockies v. Padres -190 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -190 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the Colorado Rockies. Prior to Friday night, the Padres needed their ace, Yu Darvish to step it up. Now that San Diego has lost out on the Max Scherzer sweepstakes to their NL West rival Dodgers, the urgency for Darvish to pitch better and win some games is even more intensified. The 34-year-old Japanese RH is 7-5 with a 3.27 ERA in 20 starts covering just under 116 innings, but Darvish hasn't won a game in more than a month (June 21) and the Pads are 1-3 in his July starts. But those three San Diego defeats came on the road. Tonight Darvish is back in his home park where he's done by far his best work this season. In 12 home starts, Darvish is 5-2 with a 2.79 ERA vs. 2-3 and 4.03 in 8 road starts and the Padres are 10-2 in Darvish's starts here at Petco Park this season. In five career starts vs. Colorado, Darvish is 3-1 with a 3.30 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. Despite their victory here on Friday, the Rockies are just 3-10 in the last 13 meetings in San Diego. Take the Padres. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-31-21 | Reds v. Mets -115 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the Cincinnati Reds. MLB just wrapped up the biggest non-waiver trade period in its history with more All Stars changing teams than at any other time in the past. Many of those occurred within the last 24 hours, which means that some of the trades that took place earlier in the week are all but forgotten at this point. One such trade was when the Rays inexplicably traded veteran southpaw Rich Hill to the Mets. The Mets have since made other, more major moves -- like acquiring IF Javier Baez from the Cubs -- but the Hill trade may prove to be as important as anything they do in the 2nd half. Hill gets his 21st start of the season and his second for the Mets tonight and although he didn't win his Mets debut last Sunday, his team was victorious in that one over a very good Blue Jays squad. Hill has a lot of experience against the Reds from his time with the Cubs. In 13 games (11 starts) vs. Cincy, the 41-year-old is 5-3 with a 3.18 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in just over 62 innings. Take New York. |
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07-31-21 | Red Sox +103 v. Rays | Top | 5-9 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
At 6:10 pm, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over the Tampa Bay Rays. The Red Sox got help at the trade deadline in the areas of offense and relief pitching, picking up OF Kyle Schwarber and RP Hansel Robles. But the starting pitchers -- there were plenty available -- landed in cities other than Boston. This means the rotation which got the Sox to this point will have to continue to do its job the rest of the season. That includes All Star RH starter Nathan Eovaldi who gets his 21st start of the season tonight. It comes against a very tough opponent in the Rays, but Eovaldi should be up to the task. The 31-year-old is 9-5 with a 3.49 ERA in 116 innings and his only other start this season against the Rays was a good one. In his second start of the season on April 7, Eovaldi threw seven strong innings, allowing one run on three hits with seven strikeouts in a 9-2 Boston rout. RH Ryan Yarbrough gets the ball for Tampa, and although he's 6-4 overall in 2021, Yarbrough is just 2-3 with a 5.40 ERA in 10 home games (seven starts). Take Boston. |
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07-30-21 | Twins v. Cardinals -130 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over the Minnesota Twins. This is an action play for us today -- Please do not list pitchers. With the MLB trade season upon us, there are still plenty of quality players -- especially pitchers -- rumored to be moving before today's 4:00 deadline. The Twins had been scheduled to hand the ball to Jose Berrios, but he's off to Toronto. No one is clamoring over LH Wade LeBlanc of the Cardinals however. The 36-year-old has already switched teams multiple times in 2021 and he is scheduled to get his seventh start of the season tonight. Since signing with St. Louis in mid-June, LeBlanc has done some good work, posting a 3.45 ERA in nine games -- including five starts -- covering 28 2/3 innings. He'll try to add to those solid numbers with a start against a Twins team that has already begun dismantling itself. Interleague play of this type has not been kind to the Twins who are 2-12 in their last 14 games vs. an NL left-handed starter (and 11-25 their last 36 vs. lefties, overall). Even worse: on the road, when priced between +125 and -125, the Twins are a horrid 9-21. Take St. Louis. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-30-21 | Mariners -152 v. Rangers | Top | 9-5 | Win | 100 | 3 h 39 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners over the Texas Rangers. The Rangers offense has been simply abominable, and that's with slugger Joey Gallo in the lineup almost every day. But yesterday, Texas shipped Gallo off to the Yankees for a bundle of prospects, so imagine how anemic the Rangers run production is going to be the rest of this season? And there's still time to trade more quality players, and RHP Kyle Gibson is a hot commodity and could easily be dealt before today's 4:00 pm deadline. It's tough enough when the Texas lineup is facing an average or below-average starter, but RH rookie Logan Gilbert is looking like anything but that right now. The former #14 overall draft pick (2018) is 4-2 with a 3.81 ERA and a 5.15 K:BB ratio in 12 starts for the M's covering 56 2/3 innings. He's likely licking his chops for start number 13 tonight against what will be a depleted batting order. Seattle is 16-5 in the last 21 meetings with Texas while the Rangers are 6-18 in their last 24 vs. teams from the AL West (their own division). Take the M's. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-30-21 | Red Sox +125 v. Rays | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 51 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over the Tampa Bay Rays. The Max Scherzer sweepstakes have come and gone and the stud starter won't be heading to Boston or San Diego as many people thought he might. There's still time for the Sox to land a starter (as of this writing) but it's unlikely it would be anyone near the caliber of Scherzer, who (along with teammate Trea Turner) will now play for a loaded Dodgers squad. That's good news for LHP Martin Perez who gets his 21st start of the season tonight. Admittedly, Perez hasn't been very good through most of his campaign in Boston, so far. But thanks to the Sox offense, he has a winning record at 7-6. This will be Perez's first start of the season vs. the Rays since his opening start on April 6 -- a game won the Red Sox, 6-5. Boston's done very well this season with these intra-division match-ups as the Sox are 29-11 in their last 40 games vs. teams from the AL East. Boston is also 5-2 in the last seven meetings with the Rays and 18-9 (+14 games on the moneyline) in its last 27 games as a road underdog. Take the Red Sox. As always, good luck...Al McMordie |
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07-29-21 | Blue Jays +105 v. Red Sox | Top | 13-1 | Win | 105 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Boston Red Sox. The game between these two AL East contenders on Tuesday night was postponed so the Jays and Sox played a double-header on Wednesday. Toronto took the first game and then Boston came back in the night-cap behind rookie RHP Tanner Houck. Now it's up to veteran LHP Hyun Jin Ryu if the Jays are to get away with a series split (Boston also won on Monday). Ryu's ERA is higher than the last two seasons at 3.44, but the 34-year-old has a 9-5 record in 19 starts covering 110 innings and he is traditionally a strong second half performer. For his career, Ryu has a 2.86 ERA after the All Star break. Ryu also has a career 3.00 ERA in three starts here at Fenway Park. In Ryu's last start vs. the Sox, he threw seven shutout innings allowing just four hits with seven strikeouts and no walks in an 8-0 Toronto rout on May 18. The opposing starter that day was southpaw Eduardo Rodriguez who is starting tonight as well. Take the Blue Jays. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-29-21 | Dodgers v. Giants +114 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 114 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
At 3:45 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Giants over the Los Angeles Dodgers. We played on Los Angeles last night, and easily got the $$$$ in an 8-0 Dodger win. David Price will be on the mound for LA this afternoon. Unfortunately, Los Angeles has lost his last 4 starts. And Price's teams are an awful 3-9 his last 12 starts. The Giants have dominated lefties over the past 2 seasons, with a 32-22 record (+17 games on the moneyline). And they're also a powerful 24-15 as an underdog this season (+16.4 games on the moneyline). Take the Giants as a home underdog. |
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07-29-21 | White Sox -176 v. Royals | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -176 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago White Sox over Kansas City. Last night, the White Sox, with big RHP Lucas Giolito, lost in 10 innings to the Royals, who started Kris Bubic. And that lowered Chicago's run vs. lefty starters to 34-10, and its great record this season as a favorite to 51-26 (+10.1 games on the moneyline), and 103-51 (+29.1 net games) their last 154. In contrast, when installed as an underdog, the ChiSox are 9-16 (minus 6.4 games) this season. And they're also under water vs. righties, with a 41-32 overall record -- but minus 0.5 games on the moneyline. This afternoon, the match-up will be southpaw Carlos Rodon vs. KC lefty Carlos Hernandez. KC is a wallet-busting 45-71 in day games, and was held to 0 runs over six innings (with 8 strikeouts) the last time Rodon faced the Royals here in Kansas City, back in May (a 3-0 White Sox win). Rodon is 5-1 this season in his 9 road starts, with a 1.90 ERA. Meanwhile, Hernandez's ERA is an ugly 8.10. With Chicago excelling against lefties, and also when installed as a favorite, we'll back the White Sox this afternoon. |
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07-28-21 | Dodgers -130 v. Giants | Top | 8-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
At 9:45 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the San Francisco Giants. Last night, the Dodgers lost yet another 1-run game this season (they lead the league in that unfortunate category). Still, Los Angeles is a solid 61-41 on the season. But if not for 1-run losses and/or extra-inning defeats, the Dodgers would have the best record in baseball. Tonight, they'll turn to their ace, Walker Buehler. And all the young hurler has done in his career vs. San Francisco is compile a 6-0 record with a 1.96 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP. He'll match up against Anthony DeSclafani tonight. In sharp contrast, DeSclafani's record vs. L.A. is 1-7, with a 6.11 ERA and a 1.52 WHIP. These two pitchers met last week in a game at Chavez Ravine. Buehler led the champs to a 5-3 win, as he gave up 1 run over 7 1/3 innings, while striking out 9. Even better: on the road in Buehler's career, the Dodgers are 14-1 vs. division rivals when he starts. Take Los Angeles. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-28-21 | Blue Jays v. Red Sox -127 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 3 h 6 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection in Game 2 of the double-header, is the Boston Red Sox over the Toronto Blue Jays. This matchup will feature southpaw Steven Matz against righty Tanner Houck. And we'll take the homestanding Red Sox with Houck on the hill. Houck was originally a 12th round selection by the Blue Jays in 2014 out of High School in Illinois. But the then 18-year-old RHP decided to attend College and Houck re-entered the draft three years later and was selected by the Red Sox in the first round. So far, it looks like a wise choice by Boston as Houck tore through the Minors and then got a chance in the Big Leagues last season and really opened some eyes. In three 2020 starts covering 17 innings, Houck went 3-0 while posting a ridiculous 0.53 ERA and 0.88 WHIP. He's gotten the call again this season and so far he has once again made the most of it. Still looking for his first win of 2021, Houck has a 2.50 ERA in five games (three starts) covering 18 innings but most importantly he has cut his walk rate by more than half (4.8 to 2.0) while maintaining a strikeout rate of better than 11. Boston has done its best work at night this season, with a 43-21 record (plus 22.3 games on the moneyline), while Matz's teams are 4-12 his last 16 starts under the lights. This also will be Matz's fourth start vs. Boston, and his ERA is an elevated 4.76, with a WHIP of 1.64. Meanwhile, his ERA in his eight nighttime starts this season is 5.43, with a 1.51 WHIP. Finally, Houck comes into this game off a solid start vs. the Yankees in which he gave up 0 earned runs in 4 2/3 innings, and 8 strikeouts. Take the Red Sox. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-28-21 | Astros v. Mariners +106 | Top | 11-4 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 25 m | Show |
At 3:40 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners over the Houston Astros. Yusei Kikuchi continues to perform at a very high level for his surprising Mariners team. The victories don't always come for the 30-year-old southpaw, but Kikuchi usually finds a way to put in a quality effort and the All Star has managed to keep his ERA under four runs despite just a 6-5 record. He set a season high for himself in his last start with 12 strikeouts (vs. only one walk) in just six innings. This will be Kikuchi's third start of the season against the Astros as he led his team to victory twice in April against this Houston club (once here at home and once at Minute Maid Park). Kikuchi has thrived in day games throughout his MLB career and 2021 appears to be no exception. In 12 nighttime starts, he is 3-4 with 5.24 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in just under 69 innings. However in six daytime outings, Kikuchi is 3-1 with a sparkling 1.77 ERA and 0.79 WHIP in just under 41 innings. The M's are also 20-9 in their last 29 games as an underdog. Take Seattle. |
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07-28-21 | Blue Jays -138 v. Red Sox | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 4 h 55 m | Show |
At 2:10 pm, in Game 1 of the double-header, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Boston Red Sox. This is a rematch of a pitching matchup from last Wednesday. Toronto's Robbie Ray lost that game, 7-4, to Boston's Garrett Richards, but Ray and the Jays should exact revenge tonight. The Red Sox are a dismal 12-25 as a home underdog, and have also greatly struggled here at Fenway Park vs. southpaws, as they're 24-31 (but minus 16.8 games on the moneyline), while Richards' teams are a poor 17-32 (minus 10.9 games on the moneyline) when installed as an underdog. In contrast, Robbie Ray has excelled in his career as a road favorite (22-13, +5 games on the moneyline). Take the Blue Jays. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-28-21 | Cardinals v. Indians +100 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 3 h 56 m | Show |
At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Indians over the St. Louis Cardinals. With almost identical records, the Cards and Indians (soon to be the Guardians) battle it out in this inter-league series. The Cards took round one on Tuesday by a 4-2 final and now the second game of this series will be played under the sun in Cleveland in this matinee match-up. RHP Zach Plesac will get his 14th start of the season for the Tribe. Plesac likely isn't all that satisfied with his numbers to date -- 5-3 with a 4.30 ERA in 13 starts covering 75 1/3 innings -- but there is plenty of time for the 26-year-old to turn things around. Plesac's career daytime ERA (3.42) is better than his nighttime number. And this season that bias is much more exaggerated. In nine nighttime starts covering 54 innings, Plesac has a 4.83 ERA however in four daytime outings covering 21 1/3 innings, that number is reduced almost two runs to 2.95. And in his only other inter-league start in 2021, Plesac threw eight near-perfect innings (three hits) vs. the Reds on May 7. Take Cleveland. |
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07-27-21 | Astros -146 v. Mariners | Top | 8-6 | Win | 100 | 16 h 13 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Seattle Mariners. The two starting pitchers in this game -- Seattle's Chris Flexen and Houston's Lance McCullers Jr. -- have had opposite results vs. their respective opponent in tonight's game. Flexen's record vs. Houston is 0-2, and his ERA is 7.20, while his WHIP is an ugly 2.10. Meanwhile, McCullers is 7-3 vs. Seattle in 14 starts (his teams are 10-4), and his ERA is 2.70 with a WHIP of 1.10. The Astros are a solid 32-14 (+11.2 games on the moneyline) when priced from -125 to -175. Take the Astros. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-27-21 | White Sox -143 v. Royals | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 13 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago White Sox over the Kansas City Royals. Dylan Cease will get his third start of the season vs. the Royals tonight. The hard-throwing RHP had two previous outings this season vs. KC -- both at home -- so this will be his first start of the season in Kansas City. In three prior starts at Kauffman Stadium, Cease is 2-1 although the ERA is a bit high at 4.76. Overall, Cease's numbers vs. the Royals are very good -- 2-1 with a 3.13 ERA in six starts covering just under 32 innings. Royals RH Brad Keller looked like a breakout candidate after a promising 2020 in which he went 5-3 with a 2.47 ERA in nine starts. But Keller has taken a huge step backwards this season, going 7-9 with a 5.84 ERA in 20 starts while leading the league in both hits allowed (125) and base-on-balls (50). Keller has three prior starts vs. the Sox this season and he is 1-2 with a 5.65 ERA in those. The Royals pulled off an upset last night but despite that the Sox are still 15-5 in the last 20 meetings and 10-2 in the last 12 here in KC. Take Chicago. |
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07-26-21 | Astros v. Mariners UNDER 9 | Top | 8-11 | Loss | -120 | 20 h 50 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros and Seattle Mariners 'under' the total. Luis Garcia is a 24-year-old RH rookie starter for the Houston Astros who was barely known before the season began. Garcia was used primarily as a reliever last season but has transitioned to a starting role in 2021 and has really turned some heads with his nasty stuff. In 18 games -- 16 starts -- Garcia is 7-5 with a 2.86 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in just over 91 innings. Garcia had a solid start against the Mariners back on April 29 -- one run on three hits in five innings -- but the 'Stros offense didn't give him any support that day in a 1-0 Seattle win. That lack of run support has been a problem for Garcia sometimes so a similar outcome could be on tap tonight at T-Mobile Park. In fact the under is 5-1 in Garcia's last six starts vs. teams with a winning record. The under is also 9-2-1 in the last 12 meetings of these two and 6-1-1 in the last eight in Seattle. Darren McCaughan will get the start for the M's. A former 12th round draft pick in 2017, the 25-year-old McCaughan has been effective in the Minors, and was an All-Star in 2019. He took 2020 off due to the pandemic, and made his MLB debut against the Rockies five days ago. In that game, at hitter-friendly Coors Field, he impressed, and gave up 0 hits, 3 walks, and just 1 run over 5 innings. I expect him to perform well again tonight, in his home field debut. Take the 'under.' As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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07-25-21 | White Sox +126 v. Brewers | Top | 3-1 | Win | 126 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, on ESPN-TV, our selection is on the Chicago White Sox over the Milwaukee Brewers. Two All Star ace right-handers go to the mound tonight in prime time as the Sox and Lance Lynn go to Milwaukee to face the Brewers and Brandon Woodruff. At age 34 and in his 10th MLB campaign, Lynn leads all qualified AL starters with a 1.94 ERA in 17 starts covering just under 98 innings. Woodruff's numbers are also outstanding with a 2.04 ERA in 19 starts covering 119 innings and like Lynn, he will likely be a leading candidate for the Cy Young award when all is said and done. So on paper it's a close match-up for sure, but perhaps what sets Lynn apart tonight is his numbers vs. the Brewers -- mostly from his time spent with the Cardinals. In 20 games vs. the Crew (16 starts) covering 102 1/3 innings, Lynn is 10-3 with a 2.20 ERA and 111 strikeouts. In 10 games (nine starts) at Miller Park (now American Family Field), Lynn is 6-2 with a 2.37 ERA. Despite its loss here last night, Chicago is 4-2 in the last six games in Milwaukee. Take the Sox as a road underdog on Sunday night. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-25-21 | Pirates v. Giants -163 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Giants over the Pittsburgh Pirates. Alex Wood will take the mound for Gabe Kapler's men this afternoon, while RHP JT Brubaker will get the call for the Buccos. Wood has given up just 7 earned runs over his last four starts (2.82 ERA), and the Giants won three of those four games. For the season, Wood is 8-3 with a 3.77 ERA. Brubaker has been trending in the wrong direction, as his ERA is 4.68 on the season, but 9.20 over his last three outings. And Pittsburgh has lost each of his last seven starts. Even worse: the Bucs are 9-28 (minus 14.2 games on the moneyline) vs. lefties, while San Francisco is 18-9 (but +16.7 games on the moneyline) off back to back losses, and 35-15 (+12 games on the moneyline) as a home favorite! Take the Giants. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-25-21 | Yankees v. Red Sox -135 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 51 m | Show |
At 1:10 pm, on TBS Network, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over the New York Yankees. The Red Sox were hoping to extend their 2021 dominance over their AL East rivals yesterday and things looked good for them to do so. But then with a 3-0 lead going into the eighth inning, the Boston bullpen suffered a rare meltdown and the Yanks plated four runs and stole a 4-3 victory here at Fenway. The Sox look to regroup this afternoon behind their veteran southpaw starter Martin Perez. Although the 30-year-old Venezuelan's career numbers are not all that pretty to look at, one thing Perez does have going for him today is his winning record in daytime starts. He also was the starter here on June 25 when the Red Sox beat the Yankees, 5-3, although he did not factor in the decision that day. Despite their comeback victory on Saturday, the Yanks are just 3-10 in the last 13 meetings with the Sox and 1-6 in the last seven here at Fenway. Boston is also 8-2 in its last 10 home games vs. teams with a right-handed starter. Take the Red Sox |
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07-25-21 | Blue Jays v. Mets -103 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 3 h 24 m | Show |
At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the Toronto Blue Jays. It would be strange for a contending team to trade away a veteran LH starter with a winning record and ERA under four runs. And it would be even stranger if that pitcher had a very good post-season resume on top of his solid regular season numbers. But that's exactly what the Tampa Bay Rays did when they shipped 41-year-old southpaw Rich Hill to the Mets for a couple of non-descript players. The pitching-thin, first-place Mets will likely be saying "thank you very much" for a while as Hill joins them and has a chance to contribute immediately. Admittedly, Hill has a history of injury issues, but he has been completely healthy in 2021, logging 19 starts covering 95 1/3 coming into this afternoon. The icing on the cake -- for today at least -- is that Hill is 27-12 (.692) in 102 day games (63 starts). Despite its victory last night, Toronto is only 2-7 in the last nine meetings in Queens while the Mets are 5-2 in their last seven inter-league home games vs. winning teams. Take New York. As always, good luck...Al McMordie
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07-25-21 | Padres -200 v. Marlins | Top | 3-9 | Loss | -200 | 1 h 18 m | Show |
At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the Miami Marlins. Another season, another All Star campaign for Yu Darvish. Now with his fourth MLB club, the Japanese ace is 34 years old but he is still capable of throwing some of the nastiest pitches in the game while putting up some of the best numbers. He struggled a bit right at the end of the first half but Darvish has a way of coming on strong after the All Star Break so look for some very good things from him in the coming weeks. Tonight, Darvish gets his second, second-half start and it comes in South Florida. Darvish has traditionally done his best work during the day, where he has a career 3.09 ERA in 60 starts. The Padres are 5-2 in their last seven meetings with the Marlins here in Miami, while Darvish's teams are 5-1 in his six career starts vs. the Fish. Take San Diego. |
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07-24-21 | A's -125 v. Mariners | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -125 | 18 h 48 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Oakland A's over the Seattle Mariners. RHP Chris Bassitt lost his last outing -- 4-2 vs Cleveland -- but had won his 10 prior decision (dating back to April 12). For the season, Bassitt is 10-3 with a 3.31 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. He'll match up against Seattle's Logan Gilbert tonight. Gilbert is 0-2, with a 6.13 ERA, in his five nighttime starts this season. Meanwhile, Oakland is 20-4 behind Bassitt when installed as the favorite, including 6-0 this season as a road favorite. Take Oakland. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-24-21 | Rockies v. Dodgers -245 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 17 h 47 m | Show |
At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Colorado Rockies. With the season-ending injury to Dustin May, Trevor Bauer's administrative leave, and now the recent injury to Clayton Kershaw, the door has been opened again for Tony Gonsolin to show what he can do as a starter. The 27-year-old RH is once more proving himself extremely valuable as a spot starter for his team with a 2.87 ERA in eight games (seven starts). For some reason however, Gonsolin's walk rate has soared this season. But if he can get back to the control he had in 2020 (a 1.4 walk rate), Gonsolin could be an ace in the making. Gonsolin's strikeout numbers are impressive and that could serve him well tonight at home in his eighth start against the free-swinging Rockies. It will be his first start vs. Colorado in 2021 but for his career, Gonsolin has a 2.40 ERA in three games -- two starts -- vs. the the Rox covering 15 innings. Despite their win last night, the Rockies are still just 14-38 in the last 52 meetings and 17-47 in the last 64 in L.A. Take the Dodgers. |
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07-24-21 | Pirates v. Giants -250 | Top | 10-2 | Loss | -250 | 17 h 42 m | Show |
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Giants over the Pittsburgh Pirates. Kevin Gausman's 2021 campaign is the epitome of the term "breakout season." 2020 was okay for him -- 3-3 with 3.62 ERA in 12 games -- but you really don't know how good it could have been due to the shortened season. But there's no question about how good the 30-year-old RH is in 2021. Gausman leads all qualified NL starters with a 1.84 ERA in 19 starts covering just under 118 innings. Not surprisingly he also has a stellar W-L record at 9-3. And Gausman's hit rate of 5.1 per nine IP is also one of the best there is. Start number 20 will come against the 37-60 Pirates. Gausman wants some revenge for a bad beat he suffered to the Bucs. Back on May 14, Gausman threw eight strong innings in Pittsburgh, allowing just one run on five hits with 12 K's and zero BBs. But he got little help from his offense and the Giants lost the game, 3-2. The Giants are 26-9 (+14 games on the moneyline) in their last 35 as a home favorite. Take San Francisco. |
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07-23-21 | A's v. Mariners +105 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 105 | 15 h 18 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners over the Oakland Athletics. In his third season in the Majors, Japanese southpaw starter Yusei Kikuchi finally seems to be breaking out. The 30-year-old finished the first half of the season with a 6-4 record and 3.48 ERA in 16 starts covering just over 98 innings, and it all culminated with his first selection to the AL All Star roster for the M's. His second half has gotten off to a rough start, but now in his second start of the post-break season, Kikuchi gets to face an A's team he's already beaten. On May 24, Kikuchi threw six solid innings in Oakland, allowing just one run on four hits in a 4-2 Mariners victory for his second win of the 2021 season. He'll try to duplicate that tonight in his home park against a team that has really cooled off lately. The A's began the season 45-27 in their first 72 games, but since June 19, they are just 11-15 and they are also 5-10 in their last 15 vs. teams with a winning record. Despite their loss here last night, the M's are still 17-9 in their last 26 home games. Take Seattle. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-23-21 | Rockies v. Dodgers -250 | Top | 9-6 | Loss | -250 | 15 h 17 m | Show |
>At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Colorado Rockies. The defending champs lost back to back heartbreakers to San Francisco on Wednesday and Thursday. The culprit in both was closer Kenley Jansen, who gave up 7 runs in the 9th innings of those two games, and blew a save opportunity in each. Tonight, the Dodgers will face an easier opponent in the Rockies, who are 9-34 on the road this season. And L.A. has dominated Colorado, with 30 wins in the last 39 meetings, and a 15-3 record over their last 18 at home in this series. Lefty David Price has been terrific this season, with a 2.02 ERA in his five starts, including 1.93 at home. He faced the Rockies five days ago in Denver, and held Colorado to just 1 run and 2 hits over four innings. Chi Chi Gonzalez will be on the mound for Colorado, and he was shellacked last week by the Dodgers, as he gave up 7 runs over 4 innings, in a 10-4 L.A. victory. Gonzalez has a 6.58 ERA in his 8 road starts this season. Take the Dodgers, and his teams are 0-4 in his four starts vs. the Dodgers since 2019. |
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07-23-21 | Rangers v. Astros -210 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Texas Rangers. Things haven't exactly worked out in the W/L category for Jake Odorizzi in his first season in Houston. The 31-year-old RHP is just 3-5 in 12 games (11 starts) covering 50 2/3 innings coming into tonight's start against the Rangers. But Odorizzi's other numbers are solid -- a 4.09 ERA and 1.13 WHIP with a strikeout rate of 8.0. There is reason to believe that Odorizzi will improve his record in the second half. For his career, the veteran who spent his previous seasons with the Royals (2012), Rays (2013-2017), and Twins (2018-2020) has a losing record prior to the All Star break. But after the break, Odorizzi has a winning ledger. These two Lone Star State teams have already played each other nine times this season and so far the home team is a perfect 9-0. Finally, the Rangers offense has decided to go to sleep following the All Star Game, having plated just five runs in their last five games and being out-scored 42-5 since the break. Take the Astros. |
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07-23-21 | White Sox v. Brewers -120 | Top | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 16 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Chicago White Sox. Despite a stellar first half that included a 7-3 record with a 2.39 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in 18 games (17 starts) covering 98 innings, the Brewers' Freddy Peralta did not make the NL All Star roster -- although teammates Burnes and Woodruff did get the call. Perhaps the most impressive of all of Peralta's stats so far this season -- and maybe the biggest reason he should've been an All Star -- is his incredible hit rate of just 4.0 per nine innings (which leads the NL). That snub should give the 25-year-old RHP enough of a chip on his shoulder to ensure he keeps doing the same thing in the second half of the season -- and into what looks more and more like a Brewers post-season. Peralta has done by far his best work at home in 2021 where he is 4-1 with a 2.04 ERA in 10 games (nine starts) vs. 3-2 and 2.88 in eight road starts. The Sox hitters have never seen Peralta before and they are 8-21 in their last 29 interleague road games vs. winning teams. Take Milwaukee. |
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07-23-21 | Cardinals v. Reds -147 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Reds over the St. Louis Cardinals. Tyler Mahle will face southpaw Wade Leblanc tonight, with the Reds looking to bounce back off one of their worst losses of the season. On Wednesday, the Mets shut them out, 7-0. But Cincinnati is a super 22-8 off a loss by 4+ runs, and 18-9 this season after scoring less than 3 runs. Meanwhile, the Cards are a horrible 4-15 when priced between +125 and +175 this season. Take Cincy. |
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07-22-21 | Giants v. Dodgers UNDER 8 | Top | 5-3 | Push | 0 | 21 h 42 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm our selection is on the San Francisco Giants and the Los Angeles Dodgers under the total. A pair of 10-game winners will square off tonight as Walker Buehler and the Dodgers host Anthony DeSclafani and the Giants. Buehler continues to dominate his opponents but it also hasn't hurt that his opponents have been overwhelmingly bad teams lately. Buehler's three starts this month have come against the Marlins, Diamondbacks, and Rockies, and four of his six June starts came against the D-Backs, Pirates, Cubs, and Rangers. Overall, eight of his last nine starts have been against teams with a losing record. So, it's not much of a surprise that the Dodgers have piled up the runs in those eight games, scoring 68 runs (8.5 runs per game). The one game of Buehler's last nine which was against a winning team was vs. these Giants on June 29, and that game finished with a 3-1 Los Angeles victory. I look for another low scoring game for Buehler in this matchup against DeSclafani, who has been one of the biggest surprises of the year so far. Like Buehler, the 31-year-old RH also has 10 wins and he has a 2.78 ERA and 0.99 WHIP to go with it in 19 starts covering 113 1/3 innings. But DeSclafani has done his best work on the road this season. In seven home starts, he has five wins while posting a 3.60 ERA but in 12 starts on the road with the same number of victories, DeSclafani's ERA is 2.33. And 13 of DeSclafani's last 16 road starts have gone 'under' the total. Meanwhile, Buehler's ERA at home is 2.31, while he is 6-0 in 10 divisional games, with a 1.64 ERA and an 0.80 WHIP. In his career here, at home, Buehler's gone 'under' the total in 29 of 41. Take the 'under.' As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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07-21-21 | Giants +155 v. Dodgers | Top | 4-2 | Win | 155 | 17 h 33 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on San Francisco over Los Angeles. Logan Webb will match up against Julio Urias tonight for the second time this season. In the first meeting, Webb and the Giants crushed Urias and the Dodgers, 11-6. Urias had his worst start of the season, as he gave up 7 runs, 11 hits, and 2 walks over 5 innings. And that game wasn't altogether surprising, as Urias has not had terrific success vs. the Giants in his career. He's made 11 starts, but Los Angeles is just 5-6 in those games. We'll take San Francisco and Webb as a big underdog tonight, as SF is 11-5 (+10.2 games on the moneyline) this season when priced from +125 to +175, and 24-15 vs. division foes. Take the Giants. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-21-21 | Royals v. Brewers -161 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -161 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Kansas City Royals. The Royals will hand the ball to Brad Keller this afternoon. Unfortunately, Keller has a 5.97 ERA on the season, and KC has lost each of his last seven starts. And his career ERA vs. Milwaukee is 6.97, with a WHIP of 1.64. Eric Lauer will get the ball for the Brew Crew, and his ERA over his last three starts is a sparkling 0.98. Moreover, in his daytime starts this season, his ERA is 2.08, with a 1.03 WHIP. Finally, KC is a horrid 37-72 (minus 17.1 games on the moneyline) when priced from +125 to +175, and 42-71 (minus 20.2 games on the moneyline) in the afternoon, while the Brewers are 45-19 (+10.2 games on the moneyline) as a home favorite of -150 or more, and 70-46 (+17 games on the moneyline) in daytime action. Take Milwaukee. |
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07-21-21 | Mets -131 v. Reds | Top | 7-0 | Win | 100 | 7 h 57 m | Show |
At 12:35 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the Cincinnati Reds. With Jacob deGrom sidelined for a while -- fortunately an MRI found no structural damage to his forearm -- the rest of the rotation has to step up. That includes veteran RH Marcus Stroman who will go to the mound this afternoon for his 20th start of the season. Stroman's record is not where he would like it to be at 6-8, but the rest of his numbers have been very solid -- a 2.79 ERA with a 1.14 WHIP and career-best 9.1 strikeout rate in 103 1/3 innings. This will be just his second career start at Great American Ball Park but overall he has been solid in his career vs. Cincy (1-0 with a 3.38 ERA in two starts). In addition to deGrom, the Mets are also without star SS Francisco Lindor, but that didn't seem to matter on Monday when they exploded for 15 runs in a wild 11-inning victory. Despite the loss on Tuesday, the Mets are 16-7 in the last 23 meetings here in Cincinnati and 5-1 in their last six road games vs. teams with winning records. Take New York. |
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07-20-21 | Suns +5 v. Bucks | Top | 98-105 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns + the points over the Milwaukee Bucks. Mike Budenholzer's men come into this Game 6 off wins in each of the three previous games, including an upset win on Saturday night in Phoenix. Unfortunately, Milwaukee has been consistently awful off three (or more) wins, as it's 98-166-7 ATS, including 1-9 ATS since March 24, 2021. Even worse, if the Bucks are off an upset win, and playing a rested opponent, then they're 1-20 ATS when priced from +3 to -8 points, including 0-13 ATS their last 13. That doesn't bode well for Giannis Antetokounmpo & Co. tonight. And neither does the fact that .667 (or worse) teams, up 3-games-to-2 in a series, are 0-9 ATS as home favorites of more than 2 points off an upset win! The Suns are a perfect 7-0 ATS their last seven off a home upset loss. Grab the points with Phoenix tonight. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-20-21 | Padres -155 v. Braves | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -155 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
At 7:20 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the Atlanta Braves. The Padres offense has exploded after the All Star Break with 41 runs over three games against the Nationals. They beat Erick Fedde, 24-8; Patrick Corbin, 10-4; but lost to Max Scherzer, 8-7, after blowing a 6-4 lead in the 8th inning. The Padres typically bounce back off of blown saves, as they're 10-3 this season (and 28-16 the last three seasons), so that bodes well for Jayce Tingler's men. Tonight, Yu Darvish will come off the injured list to make his 19th start of the season. And the Padres are a super 14-4 (+6.9 games on the moneyline) in his previous outings. Darvish went on the injured list because of hip and back ailments, but looked great in his bullpen session over the weekend. Darvish will match up against Braves hurler Touki Toussaint. The Braves are an awful 34-37 (minus 12 games on the moneyline) vs. righties. Take San Diego. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-20-21 | Orioles v. Rays -186 | Top | 3-9 | Win | 100 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Baltimore Orioles. The O's will welcome John Means -- their only true ace at the moment -- back to the rotation tonight. The 28-year-old southpaw has been out for over a month with a shoulder strain but has been cleared to start this game tonight. But it's a very tough assignment and Means didn't look sharp in his recent AAA rehab start so he likely will need some work before he's back to his ace-like form. The other problem of course is that, even if Means pitches well, he will be on a short leash. And if he leaves the game with a lead, it's far from safe. The Orioles have arguably the worst bullpen in the AL as their 4.94 relief ERA is second-to-last (only the Tigers have a higher number at 5.29). LH Shane McClanahan is one of several bright young pitching prospects for the Rays and he will get his 14th start of the season tonight and it will be his first career action against Baltimore. The O's are 0-4 in Means' last four starts vs. teams with a winning record. Take the Rays. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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07-19-21 | Giants v. Dodgers -131 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -131 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the San Francisco Giants. Tony Gonsolin will get the start for the defending champs tonight, and the Dodgers are 5-1 in his six starts this season. For the year, Gonsolin's ERA is 2.01 in his starts, with a 1.25 WHIP. He'll match up against the Giants' Kevin Gausman, who will be making his seventh career start vs. Los Angeles. Unfortunately, Gausman's teams are 2-4 in the prior six, while his ERA in those games is an elevated 3.73. In Gausman's career, his teams have struggled on the road with him on the hill (34-59, including 12-31 (minus 16.3 games) as a road underdog priced at +150 or less). Meanwhile, the Dodgers are 5-0 in Gonsolin's career starts, when priced as a home favorite of -125 to -175, and they're 113-47 (+20.8 games on the moneyline) in their last 160 home games. Take Los Angeles. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-19-21 | Angels v. A's -108 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Oakland A's over the Los Angeles Angels. What is left for Shohei Ohtani to do this season? The Angels' superstar has already broken the record for Major League record for home runs by a Japanese born player -- and Ohtani did it in just 81 games when Hideki Matsui needed 162 games to set the previous record (31). Then Ohtani became the first player ever to hit and pitch in the same All Star game and he's a leading candidate for the AL MVP award. But don't be surprised if Ohtani's second half numbers on the pitching side decline. In his career, Ohtani's first-half ERA is 3.37, while his second-half ERA is an ugly 9.90. This will be his 4th start at Oakland. In his first three starts, he gave up 11 runs over 12 innings (8.25 ERA). On the road this season, Ohtani's ERA is a nasty 6.46 (compared to 1.86 at home). Cole Irvin will be Ohtani's mound opponent tonight, and the A's have won six of Irvin's last seven starts. Take Oakland. |
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07-19-21 | Indians v. Astros -203 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Cleveland Indians. The Astros are likely happy to be home after their series in Chicago against the White Sox. After winning the first game on Friday, the 'Stros proceeded to lose the next two, getting crushed in the process by a combined score of 14-1. Not to worry, Zack Greinke is available tonight in this series opener against the Indians. Greinke just keeps getting it done year after year. He didn't make the All Star team last week -- you could certainly argue that he should have -- but the RH is still putting up some pretty impressive numbers at the ripe-old age of 37. In a league-leading 19 starts, Greinke is 8-3 with a 3.59 ERA in just over 115 innings. And perhaps most importantly, Greinke is a strong second-half performer. In 220 career games (201 starts) after the All Star break, Greinke is 93-54 (.633) with a 3.34 ERA. Houston is 52-17 in its last 69 games as a home favorite of -200 or more, while Cleveland is 0-5 in the last five meetings and 2-5 in the last seven in Houston. Take the Astros. |
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07-18-21 | Giants -120 v. Cardinals | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 19 m | Show |
At 2:15 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Giants over the St. Louis Cardinals. Johnny Cueto may not put up the numbers he did 10 years ago, but like the Energizer Bunny, the 35-year-old RHP just keeps going and going. Cueto hasn't had 30 starts since 2016, but with 14 at the break, he has a chance to get close this season. More important is the fact that Cueto's 4.15 ERA is by far his best number since 2018. He'll get his 15th start of the season this afternoon, and it comes against a team with which he's very familiar from his days in Cincinnati. The main reason to like Cueto and the Giants today is because of what he's done in his career when pitching in the afternoon. In 119 day starts, Cueto is 51-31 with a 2.83 ERA however in 203 nightime starts those numbers dip to 83-64 with a 3.81 ERA. That's almost a full run higher than what he's been putting up during the day. Take San Fran. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-17-21 | Bucks v. Suns -4 | Top | 123-119 | Loss | -110 | 68 h 40 m | Show |
At 9:05 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns minus the points over Milwaukee. The Suns and Bucks have traded 2 SU/ATS wins -- each winning (and covering) the two games on their own home court. The scene now moves back to the Valley of the Sun, and that bodes well for Phoenix. As I mentioned in our analysis of Game 3, Phoenix has gone 35-11 SU and 30-16 ATS this season at home, while covering the point spread by an average of 3.40 ppg! On the road, though, it's been a different story for Monty Williams' men, as the Suns have a negative point spread differential of -.02, so Phoenix's home/road differential is +3.42. Meanwhile, the Bucks' record at home this year, at Fiserv Forum, is 35-11, and they've covered the spread at home by 1.86 ppg (which very favorably compares to their negative road point spread differential of -2.66 ppg). So, when you put it all together, Milwaukee's road/home point spread differential is -4.52 ppg on the road, while Phoenix's home/road point spread differential is +3.42 -- a relative difference of +7.94. That's the primary reason we are backing the Suns on Saturday night. But it also bodes well that the Suns were competitive in defeat on Wednesday. They led for much of Game 4, and only lost by six points. This season, NBA teams off SU/ATS playoff losses by six points (or less) are 14-2 ATS. Take the Suns to bounce back in Game 5. Lay the points. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie |
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07-17-21 | Mariners v. Angels -121 | Top | 4-9 | Win | 100 | 19 h 14 m | Show |
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Angels over the Seattle Mariners. When you have someone like Shohei Otahni on your team basically making baseball history every time he goes out on the field, other players can get lost in the shuffle. Such is the case with the 2021 Angels and their pitching staff. Veteran RH Alex Cobb and his $15 Million contract were traded to the Angels by the Orioles in February and it's easy to forget that he's having his best season since his days with the Tampa Bay Rays. The 33-year-old is 6-3 with a 4.23 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 13 starts covering 66 innings. This will be Cobb's third start this season against division rival Seattle and his seventh start at home and that in particular is important. In his six starts here at Angel Stadium this season, Cobb is 4-1 with a sparkling 2.48 ERA and 0.94 WHIP however in seven road starts he is 2-2 with a dismal 6.37 ERA. The M's will start All Star LH Yusei Kikuchi and the Angels are 8-2 in their last 10 home games vs. a southpaw starter. Take the Halos. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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07-17-21 | Mets -165 v. Pirates | Top | 7-9 | Loss | -165 | 17 h 15 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the Pittsburgh Pirates. Tylor Megill has yet to win his first MLB game but that hasn't stopped the hype machine regarding the 25-year-old RHP. Megill has a 3.50 ERA in four starts with the Mets and he boasts a 13.0 strikeout rate and that's no easy task for a rookie with only 18 Major League innings under his belt. He's being discussed as a possible breakout candidate in the second half and it certainly wouldn't be the first time a young Mets' rookie made a name for himself in the dog days of summer. Start number five comes against the Pirates in Pittsburgh and wouldn't it be ironic if the winless rookie was the one who got the Mets out of their current rut of having lost three of their last four to one of the worst teams in the Majors. After all, it was Megill who started the last Mets victory over the Pirates, a 4-2 win on July 10 at CitiField. The Mets have won all four of Megill's starts and despite their win last night, the Bucs are 10-20 in their last 30 as a home underdog. Take New York. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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07-16-21 | Mets -155 v. Pirates | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -155 | 4 h 41 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the Pittsburgh Pirates. What does Marcus Stroman want for the second half of the season? Well, the first thing the Mets' veteran RH wants is some revenge. Stroman ended the first half with a loss to the lowly Pirates of all teams, dropping his record for the season to 6-7. Stroman's other numbers are strong as he boasts a 2.75 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP in his 18 starts covering 98 1/3 innings. Stroman's first start of the second half will give him a chance to make amends for his loss at the hands of the 34-56 Bucs last Saturday. Stroman should be able bounce back tonight against a Pittsburgh team that's just 19-25 at home so far. In addition to Stroman's loss on Saturday, the Mets also lost to the Pirates in the first half finale on Sunday, 6-2. But they are 16-9 in their last 25 when revenging a loss vs. an opponent when they were a home favorite of at least -150 (they were -185 last Sunday). Take the Mets. As always, good luck...Al McMordie |
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07-14-21 | Suns +4.5 v. Bucks | Top | 103-109 | Loss | -108 | 20 h 20 m | Show |
At 9 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns + the points over the Milwaukee Bucks. We played on the Bucks in Game 3, and were rewarded with a 20-point win. But off that blowout loss, we'll take Chris Paul & Co. to bounce back on Wednesday. The Suns are a super 20-7 ATS off a loss, including a perfect 7-0 ATS if their opponent is off a SU win. Even better: over the last 31 NBA Finals, teams off losses in which they failed to cover the spread by more than 14 points have covered 70.3% of the time away from home, including 87% if priced from +2.5 to +8.5 points. Take the Suns as a road underdog on Wednesday. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-14-21 | Suns v. Bucks UNDER 220.5 | Top | 103-109 | Win | 100 | 20 h 19 m | Show |
At 9 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks and Phoenix Suns to go 'under' the total. We played Game 3 under, and the total opened at 222.5. It remained between 222.5 and 220.5 throughout the 3 days of betting action until 90 minutes before game time when many books dropped the line to 220. Game 3's final score was 120-100, so it was an 'under' or a 'push' for 99+ percent of bettors. The key to Game 3 going under was the Phoenix Suns' offensive output (or lack thereof), as they scored 18 less points than they did in either Game 1 or Game 2, when they scored 118 in each of their home games. That actually bodes very well for another low-scoring game tonight. In 31 years of the NBA Finals, teams that come off a loss -- which also didn't go Over the total -- where they scored 15 (or less) points than they did two games back, greatly tend to play another low-scoring game, as their next game also didn't go Over the total 83% of the time. Even better: Game 4s of the NBA Finals have historically been very low-scoring games, and especially in competitive series (that is, series that are not being led 3-games-to-none), as those have gone 'under' 18 of 24. This will be a relatively-low scoring game. Take the 'under' in Game 4. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie |
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07-11-21 | Suns v. Bucks -3.5 | Top | 100-120 | Win | 100 | 61 h 55 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over the Phoenix Suns. The Suns drew first (and second) blood in this series with back-to-back blowout wins over the Milwaukee Bucks. Of course, those two games were in the Valley of the Sun, where Phoenix has gone 35-11 SU and 30-16 ATS this season, while covering the point spread by an average of 3.40 ppg! On the road, it's been a different story for Monty Williams' men, and that's the key factor for our play on the Bucks on Sunday night. The Suns have only covered the spread by 0.36 ppg on the road this season, which is 3.04 ppg less than they do at home. Meanwhile, the Bucks' record at home this year, at Fiserv Forum, is 33-11, and they've covered the spread at home by 1.56 ppg (which very favorably compares to their negative road point spread differential of -2.66 ppg). So, when you put it all together, Milwaukee's home/road point spread differential is +4.22 ppg at home, while Phoenix's road/home point spread differential is -3.04 -- a relative difference of +7.26. So, while many will overreact to the Suns' dominance on their home court, we will not. Instead, we'll look for a reversal here, in Milwaukee. And, for technical support, consider that home favorites (or PK) have covered the point spread 90% over the last 31 years in Game 3 of a Playoff series after losing Game 2, if their relative home/road point spread differential was at least 6 points better than their opponent's relative road/home point spread differential. Additionally, Milwaukee is 37-12 ATS at home off back to back losses when not favored by more than 5 points. Lay the points with Mike Budenholzer's Bucks. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-11-21 | Suns v. Bucks UNDER 222.5 | Top | 100-120 | Win | 100 | 61 h 54 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks and Phoenix Suns 'under' the total. The Suns and Bucks have played all four meetings this year 'over' the total, and they've gone 'over' in all six meetings played this year, and last. The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for another high-scoring game on Sunday night, especially after the Suns scored 118 in each of the first two games of this Finals. But consider that NBA games involving teams (like Phoenix) off back to back playoff games, where they scored more than 116 in each game, have gone 'under' the total 63.2% since 1992. Take Game 3 'under.' Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-11-21 | Reds v. Brewers -148 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -148 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over Cincinnati. The Reds have taken the last two games of this 4-game series, but we will take Milwaukee to win this final game before the All Star Break. The Brewers will hand the ball to All Star Brandon Woodruff, who is 7-4 with a 2.10 ERA and 0.78 ERA. He'll match-up against Luis Castillo, who is 3-10, with a 4.81 ERA. Castillo's worst role is as an underdog, as the Reds are 1-10 his last 11 when installed as a dog. In sharp contrast, the Brewers are 21-4 as a home favorite with Woodruff. Take Milwaukee. |
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07-11-21 | Yankees v. Astros -142 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the New York Yankees. Framber Valdez is having a super season, as he is 5-1 with a 2.86 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. And, dating back to last season, the Astros are 11-3 in his last 14 outings. Houston's been installed as a favorite this afternoon vs. Jameson Taillon and the Yankees. And that bodes well, as New York is a wallet-busting 8-28 as a road underdog of +150 or less, and they are also 12-22 in day games. Take Houston. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-11-21 | Blue Jays -117 v. Rays | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Tampa Bay Rays. The Rays will hand the ball to veteran lefty Rich Hill this afternoon. Hill hasn't had much success vs. the Blue Jays in his career as his ERA is north of six runs (6.06), while his WHIP is 1.47. The Jays will start fellow southpaw Robbie Ray, who has a 3.30 career ERA vs. the Rays. Toronto is 20-11 in day games this season. Even better: Robbie Ray's teams are 21-13 as a road favorite when he's been on the mound, while the Rays are 4-7 their last 11 as a home dog. Take Toronto. |
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07-10-21 | Angels -113 v. Mariners | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -113 | 16 h 49 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Anaheim Angels over the Seattle Mariners. This will be Patrick Sandoval's second start against Seattle this season. He struck out 10 Mariners in six innings in his first start. And it was a quality start, as he only gave up 3 runs over those six innings. But Seattle won, 9-5. Since that game, Sandoval has made four starts, and the Angels are a perfect 4-0 in those games. I look for Anaheim to win for the fifth straight time behind Sandoval tonight, as he has a 2.81 road ERA, while the Mariners' Chris Flexen's ERA vs. the Angels in his career is 6.75. Take Anaheim. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-10-21 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -280 | Top | 1-22 | Win | 100 | 16 h 46 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over Arizona. The Diamondbacks will hand the ball to southpaw Caleb Smith tonight at Chavez Ravine. Unfortunately, Arizona has dropped his last six outings. Even worse for Smith is that it will be Walker Buehler on the mound for Los Angeles tonight. And Buehler's 8-1 this season (and 13-1 his last 14 decisions). Buehler has made 10 starts in his career vs. Arizona. The Dodgers won eight of those 10 games, and Buehler's ERA vs. Arizona is 2.47, with a WHIP of 0.87, over 58 1-3 innings. The Diamondbacks are a wallet-breaking 18-82 (minus 42.2 games on moneyline) as an underdog of +200 (or more), while the Dodgers are 208-62 (+56.2 games on the moneyline) as a home favorite of -200 (or more). Lay the big price with Walker Buehler. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-10-21 | Reds v. Brewers -189 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -189 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
At 7:15 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Cincinnati Reds. If you thought that the following first half numbers -- a 7-3 record, 2.23 ERA, 129 strikeouts and a 0.90 WHIP -- would make a starting pitcher a shoe-in for the All Star game, think again. Those are Freddy Peralta's numbers and the 25-year-old RHP didn't get the nod. Perhaps it's because the NL in particular is stacked this season with quality pitchers. Or perhaps (more likely) it's because three other Brewers made the cut for next Tuesday, and two of them (Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff) are starters. But whatever the reason, you can expect Peralta to come out tonight with a pretty big chip on his shoulder as he faces the Reds in his 17th start of the season. It will be Peralta's fourth start of the season vs. Cincy and the Crew is 2-1 in his previous three in which he's posted a 2.87 ERA in just under 16 innings. The Brewers are also 13-3 in their last 16 games vs. teams with a RH starter and 7-2 in their last nine vs. teams from the NL Central. Take Milwaukee. |
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07-10-21 | A's -137 v. Rangers | Top | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Athletics over the Texas Rangers. James Kaprielian is a 27-year-old rookie RHP who almost nobody had heard of going into this season. But the former 1st round draft pick of the Yankees (2015) is quickly making a name for himself with the A's this season. Kaprielian is 4-3 with a 2.84 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 10 starts covering 57 innings so far coming into tonight's start vs. Texas. Despite his limited MLB experience, Kaprielian already has two starts this season against the Rangers and he threw quality outings in both of those. In 12 innings vs. Texas, Kaprielian has allowed five runs with 12 strikeouts and just two walks. Despite their loss on Friday, the A's are still 44-22 in the last 66 meetings with the Rangers and they are also 10-2 (+7 games on the moneyline) in their last 12 road games as a favorite of at least -125. Take Oakland. |
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07-10-21 | Blue Jays +107 v. Rays | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 47 m | Show |
At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Tampa Bay Rays. Ross Stripling is starting to come on. After his first six starts, he was 0-3, with a 7.20 ERA. But since then, he's made eight starts, and has given up just 12 earned runs and 42 baserunners over 46 innings (2.34 ERA; 0.91 WHIP). I look for Stripling to maintain his excellent form this afternoon, as his teams are 16-4 in his career in games after a start in which he gave up less than two earned runs. Even better: Stripling loves afternoon games, as his teams are 18-7 in his daytime starts (including 6-1 this year), compared to 23-26 at night. In contrast, Stripling's mound opponent, Ryan Yarbrough has had much more success under the lights (16-10), than in the daytime (8-9). Take Toronto this afternoon. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-09-21 | Reds -102 v. Brewers | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Reds over the Milwaukee Brewers. Of all the surprise pitching performances in the first half of the season, none is more surprising than that of Wade Miley. After wearing six different uniforms in six seasons between 2014 - 2019, Miley signed with the Reds for two years at the beginning of last season. The veteran LH proceeded to lay an egg in the short 2020 campaign, going 0-3 with a 5.65 ERA in six games (four starts). So Miley was nothing more than an afterthought heading into 2021 and for good reason. But all he's done so far is put up arguably the best first half of his career -- 6-4 with a 3.06 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 15 starts. On top of that, Miley threw his first no-hitter (May 7 at Cleveland) and was a walk and error away from a perfect game. Miley spent an injury-riddled campaign in Milwaukee in 2018 and put up some of his best numbers at Miller Park (5-2 with a 2.57 ERA in 16 starts). In seven home starts that season, he was 2-0 with a 2.67 ERA so he clearly loves pitching here. He'll match up against Eric Lauer tonight. Unfortunately for Lauer, his teams are an awful 7-18 with him on the mound in competitively-priced games with odds between +125 and -125. Take the Reds. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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07-09-21 | Phillies v. Red Sox -120 | Top | 5-11 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over the Philadelphia Phillies. No doubt, word of Chris Sale's likely second-half return to the Boston rotation has made its way around the Red Sox clubhouse. The veteran southpaw, who needed Tommy John surgery last year, is throwing and looks good. And if nothing else, this could light a fire under some of the current Boston starters who are underperforming. One such candidate is veteran RH Garrett Richards. Richards is 33-years-old and on a one-year contract and would certainly like to stick around but he's going to have to do better than his first half numbers. He gets a favorable match-up tonight against the Phillies and RH Vince Velasquez. Richards' only other start against the Phils was a gem -- seven scoreless innings -- but of course it was also seven years ago when he was a member of the Angels. Although Richards is just 4-5 this season -- his first with Boston -- the Sox are 9-8 in his starts. More importantly, Boston is 8-0 in its last eight home games. Take the Red Sox. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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07-08-21 | Nationals v. Padres -134 | Top | 8-9 | Win | 100 | 15 h 56 m | Show |
At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the Washington Nationals. This is a great pitching matchup with the Nationals' Max Scherzer (who was snubbed by the All Star selection committee) going up against San Diego's Yu Darvish (who was selected to play in the All Star Game). We'll take Darvish and the Padres tonight, as the Padres are 9-1 in Darvish's 10 home starts this season when installed as a favorite, and 15-5 in his last 20 overall, here, at Petco. Meanwhile, Washington is a wallet-busting 10-18 as an underdog of +150 (or less). The Nationals have only faced Darvish once before, and they were shut out, 2-0, as he threw eight scoreless innings, and struck out 12. Take San Diego. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-08-21 | Bucks +5.5 v. Suns | Top | 108-118 | Loss | -104 | 15 h 52 m | Show |
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks + the points over Phoenix. We played on the Suns in Game 1 of this series, and were rewarded with a relatively easy 13-point win, 118-105. Tonight, we'll switch gears and take the road underdog, as we look for Milwaukee to level the series at 1 game apiece. Indeed, Milwaukee had the distinction in this year's Playoffs to be one of only two teams (along with the Clippers) that had a win percentage of .636 both this season, and last season. One of the things I love to do in the NBA Finals is to take these strong teams off a SU/ATS loss, provided they're not laying more than 4 points. Since 1991, they've covered 71.9% of the time. That bodes well for Mike Budenholzer's men tonight. As does the fact that Phoenix is a woeful 41-71-3 ATS as a home favorite of 2+ points off a double-digit home win, when matched up against a rested opponent. Take the Bucks as a road underdog in Game 2. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-08-21 | Royals v. Indians -127 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 5 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Indians over the Kansas City Royals. Zach Plesac hasn't pitched in an MLB game in over a month. The promising 26-year-old RH was placed on the IL at the end of May for a fractured thumb and Cleveland sure will be happy to see him back in the rotation. Plesac is a budding star and the sky seemed to be the limit going into this season after a dominating short season in 2020 in which he posted a 2.28 ERA and had an incredible 57 strikeouts against only six walks. Plesac was looking good this season before the injury and he has plenty of time to get back on track. A start against the Royals could be just what the doctor ordered for his first live action back on the big stage. Plesac is 5-0 with a 1.83 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in six career starts covering 34 1/3 innings vs. KC. Match-ups don't get much more one-sided than that. The Royals are 0-5 in the last five meetings with the Tribe and 17-35 in the last 52 meetings here in Cleveland. Take the Indians. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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07-08-21 | Yankees v. Mariners +128 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 128 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners over the New York Yankees. Logan Gilbert was the 14th overall pick by the Mariners in the 2018 amateur draft and he's taken somewhat of a fast track to the Majors. The 24-year-old RH rocketed through the Minor Leagues -- his highest ERA at any level was 2.88 -- and got the call earlier this season to join the Big League club. So far, so good as Gilbert is holding his own with a 2-2 record, 4.10 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 4.5 K:BB ratio in nine starts covering just under 42 innings. But the most important stat so far for the youngster -- and the reason why he should stay in the Majors for now -- is the fact that when Gilbert pitches, Seattle wins. The M's are 7-2 in Gilbert's starts and are on a seven-game winning streak when he's out there. This will be his first career start against the Yanks and likewise it will be southpaw Jordan Montgomery's first-ever outing vs. the M's. Montgomery has a 5.53 ERA in eight road starts this season (vs. 2.96 in eight starts in the Bronx). Take Seattle. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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07-07-21 | A's +138 v. Astros | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 14 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Athletics over the Houston Astros. Sean Manaea has never won a pitching award, never finished in the top 10 in Cy Young balloting, and never been selected to an All Star Game. This season will likely be no different. But all Manaea keeps doing is posting quality campaigns. In fact, in all but his first season (2016), the now-29-year-old southpaw has registered winning records and so far this season, it's more of the same. In 17 starts, Manaea is 6-5 with a 3.13 ERA in 97 2/3 innings and he has two complete game shutouts to his credit (although one of them was a seven-inning game). This will be Manaea's fourth start of the season against the Astros and the A's have won two of the three so far -- 6-2 on April 9 and 6-5 on May 18. For his career, Manaea is 2-2 with a microscopic 1.85 ERA in seven starts here at Minute Maid Park covering 39 innings. The A's are also 8-2 (+7 games on the moneyline) in Manaea's last 10 nighttime starts. Take Oakland. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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07-07-21 | Blue Jays -200 v. Orioles | Top | 10-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Baltimore Orioles. Two years ago as a member of the Dodgers, Hyun Jin Ryu made the NL All Star team and almost won the NL Cy Young. Last season -- his first with the Blue Jays -- Ryu again put up eye-popping numbers, and finished third in the AL Cy Young race. But he was an All Star snub, somehow left off the roster. Whether or not you think Ryu is a snub again this year is certainly more debatable as the veteran LHP finished the first half 7-5 with a 3.65 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 16 starts. Tonight will mark Ryu's third start vs. Baltimore out of his last four trips to the mound and that's likely just fine with him as he tends to dominate the Birds whenever facing them. And when Ryu doesn't have his best stuff, his offense really shows up to bail him out. The Blue Jays have won all four of Ryu's starts vs. the O's since he joined them at the beginning of the shortened 2020 season, while the Birds' Matt Harvey (3-9, 7.34 ERA) has dropped his last eight decisions. Finally, the Blue Jays are 17-5 vs. American League pitchers with an ERA north of 5.90, while Baltimore is 13-46 vs. AL Pitchers with an ERA better than 3.70. Take Toronto. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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07-07-21 | Reds -138 v. Royals | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Cincy Reds over the Kansas City Royals. RHP Sonny Gray will get the start for the Reds this afternoon, and he has a super 2.08 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in six career starts vs. the Royals. Indeed, he's won each of his last three vs. KC, as he's given up just 2 earned runs over 19 innings. These two teams are going in opposite directions, as the Reds are 5-1 their last six, while the Royals have dropped 23 of their last 29. With KC a wallet-busting 15-38 when priced as an underdog between +125 and +175, as well as 2-6 in Brady Singer's daytime starts, we'll take the Reds and Gray this afternoon. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-06-21 | Nationals v. Padres -182 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 4 h 11 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the Washington Nationals. The Padres lost at home to Washington last night, 7-5, as Jon Lester outdueled Joe Musgrove. It lowered San Diego's home record this season to 30-16 (including 9-2 its last 11). Tonight, Padres southpaw, Ryan Weathers, will take the mound for his 10th start (and 16th appearance) of the season. For the season, Weathers has a 3-2 record, with a 2.63 ERA, and opponents are hitting just .217 against him. The Nationals are 10-14 this season vs. lefties, while the Padres have won all three of Weathers' starts as a home favorite. Washington will start either Paolo Espino or Erick Fedde. Regardless of which hurler takes the mound for the Nats, we'll take the homestanding Padres. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-06-21 | Cardinals v. Giants -130 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -130 | 6 h 31 m | Show |
At 9:45 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Giants over the St. Louis Cardinals. Heading into this season, nobody would blame you if you said that veteran RH Johnny Cueto was on the downside of his career and unlikely to put up numbers reflective of the #2 or 3 starter that he used to be. After all, the now-35-year-old posted 1-2 record with a 5.06 ERA followed by 2-3 and 5.40 the last two seasons. But like his team -- the Giants -- Cueto is surprising just about everyone this season with a 6-4 record and 4.00 ERA in 13 starts covering 72 innings. In fact, just about all of Cueto's numbers are improved over 2019 and 2020, including a 1.8 walk rate and a 4.14 K:BB ratio. Start number 14 will come tonight against a team that Cueto is very familiar with from his time in the NL Central with the Reds. Cueto likes his home cooking as in 52 starts here at AT&T Park, he is 21-14 with a 3.77 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in just under 320 innings. The Giants are also 6-1 (+5 games on the moneyline) in Cueto's last seven starts as a home favorite. Take the Giants. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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07-06-21 | Red Sox v. Angels +103 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 103 | 18 h 48 m | Show |
At 9:35 pm, our selection is on the Anaheim Angels over the Boston Red Sox. This might be the best match-up in baseball this week, as it features two All Stars on the mound, with Shohei Ohtani vs. Nathan Eovaldi. We'll take Anaheim at home, as Eovaldi has a career 4.72 ERA and 1.69 WHIP vs. the Angels. He faced Anaheim in Boston earlier this season, and was hit hard in a 6-5 loss. Tonight, the key factor for me is that Ohtani will be pitching with an extra day of rest. And the Angels are 10-3 in Ohtani's career when he has pitched with an extra day or two of rest. He also has a 1.73 ERA in seven home starts this season. Take Anaheim. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-06-21 | Bucks v. Suns -5.5 | Top | 105-118 | Win | 100 | 64 h 16 m | Show |
At 9:05 pm, on Tuesday, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns minus the points over Milwaukee. Over the last 22 seasons, the NBA's Western conference has been dominant against the Eastern conference, as its teams have won 56.46% of the games. And this season was no different, as the West went 242-208 (53.77%) vs. the East. This intriguing NBA Finals match-up will pit the #2-seeded Suns (who last made the Finals in 1993) against the #3-seeded Bucks (who last made the Finals in 1974, when they were a Western conference team). Prior to the season, I predicted the Bucks (at 13-2 odds) would win the NBA title. Unfortunately, their best player, Giannis Antetokounmpo, sustained an injury in Game 4 vs. Atlanta, so he won't be at 100%, even if he suits up for all the games. But regardless of Antetokounmpo's health, this Game 1 is a horrible situation for the Bucks. Indeed, Eastern conference teams are 0-12 straight-up, and 1-11 ATS since 2005 when playing away from home in Game 1 of the NBA Finals against a Western conference foe with a better record. The closest that any of these 12 Eastern conference teams has come in Game 1 was in 2015, when Cleveland lost to Golden State by eight points, as a 6-point underdog. And the only time an Eastern conference team has covered away from home in Game 1 since 2005 was in 2018, when the Cavs lost by 10, as a 13-point underdog to the Warriors. Finally, each of these two finalists has done much better vs. the point spread at home, than on the road. The Suns have covered by 3.25 ppg at home (compared to 0.36 ppg on the road), while the Bucks have covered by 1.56 ppg at Milwaukee (compared to -2.47 ppg away from home). This is key, as NBA finalists, since 1991, have gone 9-0 SU/ATS at home in Game 1 when their home point spread differential was 1.75 ppg greater than their opponent's road point spread differential. Take the Phoenix Suns minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-06-21 | Dodgers -129 v. Marlins | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -129 | 15 h 21 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Miami Marlins. Los Angeles' nine-game win streak was snapped last night, but I love it to start a new win streak this evening. Tony Gonsolin gets the start for the Dodgers tonight, and he's been a model of consistency. Los Angeles has won each of his last five starts and -- importantly -- he's given up exactly one run in each of his last six starts. For the season, Gonsolin's ERA is a solid 2.77, and LA is 4-0 this year behind him when priced from -125 to -175. Moreover, LA is 95-52 its last 147 when priced from -125 to -175, while the Marlins are 5-12 as a home underdog in his starts. Take Los Angeles. |
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07-06-21 | Blue Jays -177 v. Orioles | Top | 5-7 | Loss | -177 | 3 h 52 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Baltimore Orioles. Steven Matz will get the start tonight for the Blue Jays -- his first career start vs. the Orioles -- while Spenser Watkins will toe the rubber for the Birds in his first career start. Matz has done his best work away from home (i.e., away from the hitter-friendly parks in Buffalo and Dunedin) this year, as he is 6-1 on the road, with a 3.43 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. The Blue Jays have done exceptionally well here at Camden Yards over the few years, as they've won eight of the last nine. Meanwhile, the Orioles have struggled against lefties, with a 9-19 record (minus 8 games on the moneyline) this season, and a 37-66 record (minus 10.4 games on the moneyline) over the last three seasons. Watkins, a 28-year-old career minor leaguer with over 600 innings, will be making his 2nd appearance in the Majors after throwing a scoreless inning against the Angels last week in his MLB debut. For AAA Norfolk this season, he had a 3.58 ERA, with a 1.12 WHIP and a 27:11 strikeout/walk ratio over 32 2/3 innings. Unfortunately, his HR/fly ball rate has been high over his last few Minor League seasons (13.33%; 20.6%), which doesn't bode well for him tonight against the homer-happy Blue Jays. Take Toronto. |
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07-05-21 | Phillies v. Cubs -135 | Top | 13-3 | Loss | -135 | 15 h 46 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Philadelphia Phillies. Southpaw pitcher Matt Moore burst on the MLB scene as a 22-year-old rookie with the Tampa Bay Rays 10 years ago. Moore proceeded to have three-plus very good seasons with the Rays through an injury-riddled 2014 campaign, including a 17-4 season in 2013 that got him some Cy Young votes. Unfortunately, Moore has never been able to duplicate those early years since being traded to the Giants in 2016 and he now finds himself a spot starter with the Phillies. Moore will get his fifth start of the season tonight against the Cubs and RHP Zach Davies. Davies came to the Cubs from the Padres as part of the Yu Darvish deal back in December and while not a dominating starter by anyone's measure, Davies has helped contribute this season on many occasions. The Cubs are 6-2 in Davies' home games this season and his last two teams (the Cubs and Padres) are a combined 20-9 (+8 games on the moneyline) in Davies last 29 home starts. Take Chicago. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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07-05-21 | Brewers v. Mets +138 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 138 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the Milwaukee Brewers. The red-hot Brewers come into Queens tonight for the first of three games against the Mets. The Brewers have won 11 of their last 12 games and it was the Pirates of all teams who stopped Milwaukee's winning streak at 11 games on Sunday. It may seem like a tough situation for young Tylor Megill to get his first MLB victory but there are at least a couple of reasons to like the Mets tonight. First is the fact that the home team has dominated this series lately as the hosts have taken each of the last four meetings and seven of the last nine going back to May of 2018. Second, despite Megill's ERA of 4.82, the 25-year-old rookie RHP has a solid 1.29 WHIP and has struck out almost 12 batters per nine innings, something that may serve him very well against the free-swinging Milwaukee line-up tonight. The Mets are 24-11 (+8 games on the moneyline) in their last 35 home games and 5-1 in their last six games vs. teams from the NL Central. Take New York. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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07-04-21 | Rangers v. Mariners -145 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners over Texas. The Mariners continue to defy preseason expectations, as they are 44-40 on the season, and just 3 1/2 games behind Tampa Bay for a wild card berth. Chris Flexen has been a big part of the M's success this season, as he is 6-3 in 14 starts, with a nice 3.97 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. He's also 3-0 in his career vs. the Rangers, with a 3.32 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. Mike Foltynewicz has had a comparatively-disappointing campaign for Texas, as he has an ERA north of five runs (5.17), with a 1.34 WHIP. Not surprisingly, his W/L record is under water, at 2-7. And his teams are 0-3 in his three starts vs. Seattle. Finally, the Rangers are a horrid 19-59 (minus 31.3 games on the moneyline) on the road vs. division foes, and 43-89 (minus 24 games on the moneyline) as a road underdog. Take Seattle. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-04-21 | Red Sox +100 v. A's | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over the Oakland A's. The Red Sox's 8-game win streak was snapped last night, in extra innings, by Oakland. But with the Red Sox being installed as a slight underdog in this game, we'll take them to bounce back this afternoon. Indeed, Boston is 53-34 as a road underdog of +150 or less, and is 24-14 in competitively-priced games with odds between +125 and -125 (while Oakland is 19-20). The Red Sox are also 35-20 vs. righties this season (while Oakland is just 27-24 vs. righties). Take Boston. |
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07-04-21 | Cubs +111 v. Reds | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Cincinnati Reds. Despite a higher-than-expected ERA of 3.98 and having allowed a league-high 20 home runs, RHP Kyle Hendricks is leading the NL with 10 victories so far. Hendricks doesn't throw particularly hard but is an innings-eater who keeps hitters off-balance with his stuff. And he obviously gets the runs when he needs them. The Cubs' ace will get his 17th start this afternoon as he tries to prevent a three-game sweep at the hands of the Reds. In fact the Cubs come into tonight having lost eight in a row so it will be up to Hendricks -- to a large extent -- to stop the bleeding. Hendricks loves these daytime affairs as he is 31-20 (.608) with a 3.13 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 78 starts under the sun covering 466 innings (while Cincy is 47-67 in day games). Today will be his first start of the season vs. the Reds. The Cubs are 8-1 in Hendricks' last nine starts going back to May 16. And they're averaging 5.5 runs per game, while batting .258, when their opponent starts a lefty. Take Chicago. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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Big Al McMordie ALL Sports Top Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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08-10-21 | Angels +136 v. Blue Jays | Top | 6-3 | Win | 136 | 9 h 0 m | Show |
08-10-21 | Brewers -208 v. Cubs | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 17 m | Show |
08-09-21 | Yankees -165 v. Royals | Top | 8-6 | Win | 100 | 18 h 22 m | Show |
08-08-21 | Mets +1.5 v. Phillies | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -130 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
08-07-21 | Diamondbacks v. Padres -276 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 15 h 34 m | Show |
08-07-21 | Twins v. Astros -190 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 4 m | Show |
08-07-21 | Mets -102 v. Phillies | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -102 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
08-06-21 | Diamondbacks v. Padres -201 | Top | 8-5 | Loss | -201 | 20 h 15 m | Show |
08-06-21 | Twins v. Astros -216 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -216 | 18 h 16 m | Show |
08-06-21 | Red Sox +132 v. Blue Jays | Top | 4-12 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 13 m | Show |
08-06-21 | Mets -100 v. Phillies | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 12 m | Show |
08-06-21 | White Sox -149 v. Cubs | Top | 8-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
08-05-21 | Royals v. White Sox -182 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -182 | 14 h 21 m | Show |
08-05-21 | Mariners +1.5 v. Yankees | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
08-04-21 | Giants -171 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 7-1 | Win | 100 | 15 h 48 m | Show |
08-04-21 | Mets -152 v. Marlins | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
08-03-21 | Mets -160 v. Marlins | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -160 | 6 h 4 m | Show |
08-03-21 | Orioles v. Yankees -1.5 | Top | 1-13 | Win | 100 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
08-02-21 | Mariners +143 v. Rays | Top | 8-2 | Win | 143 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
08-02-21 | Mets -133 v. Marlins | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -133 | 3 h 37 m | Show |
08-01-21 | Red Sox +146 v. Rays | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
08-01-21 | Rockies v. Padres -165 | Top | 1-8 | Win | 100 | 8 h 33 m | Show |
08-01-21 | Astros +100 v. Giants | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 27 m | Show |
07-31-21 | Rockies v. Padres -190 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -190 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
07-31-21 | Reds v. Mets -115 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
07-31-21 | Red Sox +103 v. Rays | Top | 5-9 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
07-30-21 | Twins v. Cardinals -130 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
07-30-21 | Mariners -152 v. Rangers | Top | 9-5 | Win | 100 | 3 h 39 m | Show |
07-30-21 | Red Sox +125 v. Rays | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 51 m | Show |
07-29-21 | Blue Jays +105 v. Red Sox | Top | 13-1 | Win | 105 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
07-29-21 | Dodgers v. Giants +114 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 114 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
07-29-21 | White Sox -176 v. Royals | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -176 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
07-28-21 | Dodgers -130 v. Giants | Top | 8-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
07-28-21 | Blue Jays v. Red Sox -127 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 3 h 6 m | Show |
07-28-21 | Astros v. Mariners +106 | Top | 11-4 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 25 m | Show |
07-28-21 | Blue Jays -138 v. Red Sox | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 4 h 55 m | Show |
07-28-21 | Cardinals v. Indians +100 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 3 h 56 m | Show |
07-27-21 | Astros -146 v. Mariners | Top | 8-6 | Win | 100 | 16 h 13 m | Show |
07-27-21 | White Sox -143 v. Royals | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 13 m | Show |
07-26-21 | Astros v. Mariners UNDER 9 | Top | 8-11 | Loss | -120 | 20 h 50 m | Show |
07-25-21 | White Sox +126 v. Brewers | Top | 3-1 | Win | 126 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
07-25-21 | Pirates v. Giants -163 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
07-25-21 | Yankees v. Red Sox -135 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 51 m | Show |
07-25-21 | Blue Jays v. Mets -103 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 3 h 24 m | Show |
07-25-21 | Padres -200 v. Marlins | Top | 3-9 | Loss | -200 | 1 h 18 m | Show |
07-24-21 | A's -125 v. Mariners | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -125 | 18 h 48 m | Show |
07-24-21 | Rockies v. Dodgers -245 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 17 h 47 m | Show |
07-24-21 | Pirates v. Giants -250 | Top | 10-2 | Loss | -250 | 17 h 42 m | Show |
07-23-21 | A's v. Mariners +105 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 105 | 15 h 18 m | Show |
07-23-21 | Rockies v. Dodgers -250 | Top | 9-6 | Loss | -250 | 15 h 17 m | Show |
07-23-21 | Rangers v. Astros -210 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
07-23-21 | White Sox v. Brewers -120 | Top | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 16 m | Show |
07-23-21 | Cardinals v. Reds -147 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
07-22-21 | Giants v. Dodgers UNDER 8 | Top | 5-3 | Push | 0 | 21 h 42 m | Show |
07-21-21 | Giants +155 v. Dodgers | Top | 4-2 | Win | 155 | 17 h 33 m | Show |
07-21-21 | Royals v. Brewers -161 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -161 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
07-21-21 | Mets -131 v. Reds | Top | 7-0 | Win | 100 | 7 h 57 m | Show |
07-20-21 | Suns +5 v. Bucks | Top | 98-105 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
07-20-21 | Padres -155 v. Braves | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -155 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
07-20-21 | Orioles v. Rays -186 | Top | 3-9 | Win | 100 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
07-19-21 | Giants v. Dodgers -131 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -131 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
07-19-21 | Angels v. A's -108 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
07-19-21 | Indians v. Astros -203 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
07-18-21 | Giants -120 v. Cardinals | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 19 m | Show |
07-17-21 | Bucks v. Suns -4 | Top | 123-119 | Loss | -110 | 68 h 40 m | Show |
07-17-21 | Mariners v. Angels -121 | Top | 4-9 | Win | 100 | 19 h 14 m | Show |
07-17-21 | Mets -165 v. Pirates | Top | 7-9 | Loss | -165 | 17 h 15 m | Show |
07-16-21 | Mets -155 v. Pirates | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -155 | 4 h 41 m | Show |
07-14-21 | Suns +4.5 v. Bucks | Top | 103-109 | Loss | -108 | 20 h 20 m | Show |
07-14-21 | Suns v. Bucks UNDER 220.5 | Top | 103-109 | Win | 100 | 20 h 19 m | Show |
07-11-21 | Suns v. Bucks -3.5 | Top | 100-120 | Win | 100 | 61 h 55 m | Show |
07-11-21 | Suns v. Bucks UNDER 222.5 | Top | 100-120 | Win | 100 | 61 h 54 m | Show |
07-11-21 | Reds v. Brewers -148 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -148 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
07-11-21 | Yankees v. Astros -142 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
07-11-21 | Blue Jays -117 v. Rays | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
07-10-21 | Angels -113 v. Mariners | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -113 | 16 h 49 m | Show |
07-10-21 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -280 | Top | 1-22 | Win | 100 | 16 h 46 m | Show |
07-10-21 | Reds v. Brewers -189 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -189 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
07-10-21 | A's -137 v. Rangers | Top | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
07-10-21 | Blue Jays +107 v. Rays | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 47 m | Show |
07-09-21 | Reds -102 v. Brewers | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
07-09-21 | Phillies v. Red Sox -120 | Top | 5-11 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
07-08-21 | Nationals v. Padres -134 | Top | 8-9 | Win | 100 | 15 h 56 m | Show |
07-08-21 | Bucks +5.5 v. Suns | Top | 108-118 | Loss | -104 | 15 h 52 m | Show |
07-08-21 | Royals v. Indians -127 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 5 m | Show |
07-08-21 | Yankees v. Mariners +128 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 128 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
07-07-21 | A's +138 v. Astros | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 14 m | Show |
07-07-21 | Blue Jays -200 v. Orioles | Top | 10-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
07-07-21 | Reds -138 v. Royals | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
07-06-21 | Nationals v. Padres -182 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 4 h 11 m | Show |
07-06-21 | Cardinals v. Giants -130 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -130 | 6 h 31 m | Show |
07-06-21 | Red Sox v. Angels +103 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 103 | 18 h 48 m | Show |
07-06-21 | Bucks v. Suns -5.5 | Top | 105-118 | Win | 100 | 64 h 16 m | Show |
07-06-21 | Dodgers -129 v. Marlins | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -129 | 15 h 21 m | Show |
07-06-21 | Blue Jays -177 v. Orioles | Top | 5-7 | Loss | -177 | 3 h 52 m | Show |
07-05-21 | Phillies v. Cubs -135 | Top | 13-3 | Loss | -135 | 15 h 46 m | Show |
07-05-21 | Brewers v. Mets +138 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 138 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
07-04-21 | Rangers v. Mariners -145 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
07-04-21 | Red Sox +100 v. A's | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
07-04-21 | Cubs +111 v. Reds | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 15 m | Show |