Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
10-24-22 | Nets v. Grizzlies -1.5 | Top | 124-134 | Win | 100 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Grizzlies minus the points over Brooklyn. The Grizzlies were blown out, 137-96, in Dallas, on Saturday. But off that debacle, we'll lay the points with Memphis here, at home, tonight. The Grizzlies are a solid 22-8 ATS as a favorite off a loss by more than 20 points. Take Memphis. |
|||||||
10-24-22 | Raptors +3.5 v. Heat | Top | 98-90 | Win | 100 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors + the points over the Miami Heat. These two teams met on Saturday here, in Miami. And the Heat edged the Raptors, 112-109, for their first win of the season. Unfortunately for Miami, losing teams have covered just 32.1% since 1990 in the 2nd of back to back home meetings, if they won the first of the two meetings, straight-up. Take Toronto + the points. |
|||||||
10-24-22 | Pacers v. 76ers -11.5 | Top | 106-120 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia 76ers minus the points over Indiana. The Sixers are off to a poor 0-3 start. But I love Philly to bounce back strong tonight, on Monday, as winless, double-digit favorites have covered 71% over the past 33 seasons vs. foes not off back-to-back losses. Lay the points with the Sixers. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
10-23-22 | Suns +2.5 v. Clippers | Top | 112-95 | Win | 100 | 15 h 54 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns over the Clippers. We played against Phoenix on Friday, and got the $$$ when the Trail Blazers upset them, 113-111, in overtime. Tonight, we'll back the Suns, as they're 52-19 ATS off an upset road loss. Take Phoenix. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
10-23-22 | Kings v. Warriors -8.5 | Top | 125-130 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 25 m | Show |
At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors minus the points over the Sacramento Kings. We played against Golden State on Friday, and took Denver as our NBA Game of the Month. And the Nuggets pulled off the upset win. But we'll switch gears and take Golden State tonight, as it's 35-12 ATS at home vs. division rivals, if Golden State was off a straight-up loss. Take the Warriors. |
|||||||
10-23-22 | Jets v. Broncos +2 | Top | 16-9 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Denver Broncos + the points over the New York Jets. Russell Wilson won't be on the field today vs. the Jets, as he's out with a hamstring injury. QB Brett Rypien will instead be under center for the Broncos. But Wilson was the 25th-ranked quarterback through the first six weeks, so his absence won't be devastating to the Broncos. We'll take Denver, as it's a stellar 52-19-3 ATS at home, priced from +4.5 to -2 points, including 10-0 ATS if it was off a division loss in its previous game. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
10-23-22 | Blazers v. Lakers -3 | Top | 106-104 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
At 3:40 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Lakers minus the points over Portland. The Blazers have opened the season with back-to-back upset wins over the Kings and Suns, while the Lakers dropped their first two games to the Warriors and Clippers. We'll take Los Angeles as teams off back to back SU/ATS losses have covered 63% since 1990 vs. foes off back to back upset wins to start the season. Lay the points. |
|||||||
10-23-22 | Padres v. Phillies OVER 6.5 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 20 m | Show |
At 2:37 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres and Philadelphia Phillies 'over' the total. The Padres and Phillies played another dramatic game last night with the home team finally prevailing after a see-saw battle. The 10-6 win by the Phillies now gives them a commanding 3-1 lead in the series with a chance to seal the deal at home tonight before the venue switches back to San Diego. These two got the bats out early on Saturday and Game 4 went easily over the total. Although the starting pitching is significantly stronger this afternoon with Game 1 starters RH Yu Darvish and RH Zack Wheeler taking the mound, you can expect more of the same as both bullpens were heavily used last night in the slugfest. The Phillies called on six relievers after starter Bailey Falter lasted just 2/3 inning and San Diego sent five out from their bullpen after starter Mike Clevinger failed to record an out. Wheeler has struggled in day games this season, going 4-5 with a 4.53 ERA in nine afternoon starts vs. 8-2 and 2.05 in 17 starts under the lights. Take the 'over.' As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|
|||||||
10-23-22 | Giants v. Jaguars -3 | Top | 23-17 | Loss | -110 | 55 h 45 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Jacksonville Jaguars minus the points over New York. The Jaguars come into this game off 3 SU/ATS losses, but have been installed as a home favorite vs. New York. The Giants are headed in the opposite direction, as they're 5-1 SU/ATS after their 2nd straight upset win -- a 24-20 victory over Baltimore. But off those two upsets, we'll fade New York at Jacksonville on Sunday. Indeed, winning teams off back-to-back upset wins have covered just 39.2% on the road vs. losing teams over the last 40+ years. And the Giants are a poor 4-8 ATS off back to back upset wins vs. a foe off a SU loss. Finally, over the last 40+ years, NFL teams off 3 SU/ATS losses have covered 69.5% vs. foes off 3 SU/ATS wins if our play-on team (here, Jacksonville), was not getting more than 4 points. Lay the points with the Jaguars. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
10-23-22 | Lions +6.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 6-24 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 13 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Lions + the points over Dallas. Dak Prescott will make his return this afternoon for the Cowboys, but we'll still go against them this afternoon. Detroit had last week off following a shutout loss, 29-0, at the hands of New England. The Lions are now 1-4, but rested underdogs of +6 (or more) points, with a win percentage < .333, have covered 64.5% over the past 43 years. And Detroit has gone 16-0-1 ATS after losing by more than 26 points in their previous game, if they were installed as an underdog of 6+ points in their current game. Take Detroit. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
10-23-22 | Browns +7 v. Ravens | Top | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 6 h 50 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns + the points over the Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens have not covered the spread in any of their three previous games, and are 1-8 ATS when favored by more than 3 points, dating back to last season. This afternoon, they'll welcome division rival, Cleveland, to M&T Bank Stadium. We'll grab the points with the Browns, as AFC North division teams have covered 64.8% if they were getting 6+ points against a division foe not off a SU/ATS win. Additionally, the road team has gone 27-18-1 ATS in this rivalry, including 5-0 ATS vs. a foe off an upset loss. Take Cleveland. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
10-22-22 | Washington v. California +7.5 | Top | 28-21 | Win | 100 | 40 h 12 m | Show |
At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the California Golden Bears + the points over Washington. The Bears come into this game off back to back SU/ATS losses to Washington State and Colorado. But both of those games were on the road (where Cal is 0-3 on the season). At home, it's been a different story, as California is 3-0 SU/2-1 ATS. The Bears play this game with revenge from a 31-24 loss in Seattle last season. And Washington is an awful 0-7 ATS its last seven (and 13-31-1 ATS its last 45) as road favorites vs. revenge-minded conference foes, if the Huskies were off a win, and owned a winning record. Grab the points with California. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
10-22-22 | Cavs -1.5 v. Bulls | Top | 128-96 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Cavaliers over the Chicago Bulls. The Cavaliers have a big advantage tonight, in terms of rest. Cleveland has had the last 2 days off, while Chicago had to play last night in Washington, against the Wizards. Over the last 33 seasons, rested NBA teams have covered 70.2% in their 2nd game of the season, if their opponent was unrested, and our rested team was not favored by more than 3 points. Take Cleveland. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
10-22-22 | Pittsburgh v. Louisville UNDER 55.5 | Top | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 38 h 33 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Under in the Louisville/Pittsburgh game. The Cardinals have scored 33+ points in each of their last three games. But the Panthers have not allowed more than 31 points in regulation in any of their six games this season. I look for a relatively-low scoring game here, as Louisville has gone under in 9 of 10 games after scoring 31+ points in three (or more) games in a row. Take the Under. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
10-22-22 | Mississippi State v. Alabama UNDER 61.5 | Top | 6-30 | Win | 100 | 37 h 38 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Alabama/Mississippi State game. The Crimson Tide lost last week to the Tennessee Volunteers, 52-49, as a 9-point favorite. Off that horrible game, we'll look for a much better effort here by Nick Saban's troops -- and especially on the defensive end. Indeed, over the last nine years, Alabama is 6-0 SU off a loss, and all six games have gone UNDER the total, as the Tide held those six foes to 13, 0, 6, 7, 16 and 9 points (8.5 ppg). Additionally, Alabama is 7-0 Under its last 7 following a game that went Over the total. Meanwhile, Mississippi State also comes into this game off an upset defeat, 27-17, at the hands of Kentucky. And the Bulldogs have gone UNDER 14 of 15 following a straight-up loss, if they failed to cover the spread by 9+ points in their previous game. Take the Under. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
10-22-22 | Fresno State v. New Mexico +11 | Top | 41-9 | Loss | -115 | 36 h 6 m | Show |
At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the New Mexico Lobos + the points over Fresno State. The Bulldogs upset San Jose State, 17-10, last week as a 7-point home dog, and they covered the spread for the first time all season, after an 0-5 ATS start to the season. Now, Fresno has been installed as a big road favorite in Albuquerque. But I look for a reversion to form for Fresno, as road favorites have covered just 33% over the last 42 years off an upset win, if they were on a 5-game (or worse) ATS losing streak prior to that upset victory. Additionally, the Lobos are 13-2 ATS against foes that won outright as a 7-point (or greater) underdog in their previous game. Take New Mexico. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
10-22-22 | Spurs v. 76ers -12.5 | Top | 114-105 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
At 6:10 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia 76ers minus the points over San Antone. The Spurs pulled off an upset win last night against the Indiana Pacers, while Philly lost its home opener to Milwaukee in its previous game. The Sixers will get a 2nd crack at the apple here, at home, on Saturday evening. We'll lay the points with Philly, as double-digit home favorites have covered 75% since 1990 off a loss in their home opener when matched up against a foe off a SU win. Take the 76ers. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
10-22-22 | UCLA v. Oregon -6 | Top | 30-45 | Win | 100 | 33 h 13 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Oregon Ducks minus the points over UCLA. Both of these teams are undefeated (3-0) in Pac-12 conference play, though UCLA owns the better overall record, at 6-0 (compared to Oregon's 5-1). In the Bruins' last game, they upset Utah, 42-32, as a 3-point home underdog. I played on UCLA in that game, but will go against Chip Kelly's men on this Saturday, as undefeated Pac-12 Conference teams are 14-27-1 ATS off an upset conference win. Even worse for the Bruins: they're 15-36-1 ATS off back to back wins, including 1-7 ATS as an underdog off a double-digit win. And the Ducks are 26-9-1 ATS vs. conference foes, if the Ducks owned a worse season W/L record, and were not getting 4+ points. Lay the points with Oregon. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
10-22-22 | North Texas v. UTSA -10 | Top | 27-31 | Loss | -107 | 33 h 11 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our Conference USA Game of the Month is on the Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners minus the points over North Texas. The Mean Green come into this game off back to back blowout wins over Florida Atlantic (45-28) and Louisiana Tech (47-27). They've now been installed as an underdog at UTSA, which doesn't bode well for the Mean Green. Indeed, underdogs are a horrible 13-45 ATS after back to back games where they scored more than 40 points, including 0-10 ATS their last 10 when playing a revenge-minded foe. With the Roadrunners seeking revenge from a 22-point loss in Denton last season, we'll lay the points with UTSA. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
10-22-22 | Marshall +12.5 v. James Madison | Top | 26-12 | Win | 100 | 33 h 7 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Marshall Thundering Herd + the points over James Madison. The Dukes suffered their first loss of the season last week following a 5-0 SU/ATS start. We'll go against James Madison on Saturday, as double-digit favorites off a SU/ATS loss have covered just 63 of 169 if that loss was their first of the season after a 5-0 (or better) start. Take Marshall + the points. |
|||||||
10-22-22 | Florida International v. Charlotte OVER 63.5 | Top | 34-15 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 4 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Over in the Florida International/Charlotte game. Last week, we played on the Charlotte 49ers and UAB under the total as our Conference USA game of the Year. We were rewarded with a 54-point game which went under the total by 11 points. But here, we'll look for a return to form by Charlotte, as it had gone over the total in each of its five games previous to last week. Take Charlotte/Florida International Over. |
|||||||
10-22-22 | Memphis v. Tulane UNDER 56 | Top | 28-38 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 2 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Tulane/Memphis game to go Under the total. The Tigers come into this game off back to back high-scoring games. Memphis lost, 47-45, last week, and 33-32 the game before that. But the Tigers have gone under the total 17-8 off back to back 60-point games. Meanwhile, Tulane also played a high-scoring game last week, as it routed South Florida, 45-31. But the Green Wave have gone under 18-7 after a game which went over the total, if the line in the current game was less than 58 points. Take the Under. |
|||||||
10-22-22 | Iowa v. Ohio State -28.5 | Top | 10-54 | Win | 100 | 30 h 40 m | Show |
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Ohio State Buckeyes minus the points over Iowa. Our strongest football play so far this year was on the Ohio State Buckeyes, Sept. 17, vs. Toledo. The Bucks were averaging just 33 ppg, and were 0-2 ATS on the season going into that contest. But Ohio State erupted for 77 points, and that was a harbinger of things to come. Since that game, Ohio State has scored 52, 49, and 49 points. And they're 3-0-1 ATS their last four games. I won't step in front of this freight train, as NCAA teams have covered 63.3% of their home games since 1980 vs. conference foes, if they scored 49+ points in each of their three previous games, and did not fail to cover the spread in any of those three games. Lay the points with the Buckeyes. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
10-21-22 | Suns v. Blazers +5 | Top | 111-113 | Win | 100 | 16 h 59 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Portland Trail Blazers + the points over Phoenix. The Trail Blazers are a solid 18-3 SU and 15-6 ATS in their home openers, including a perfect 5-0 ATS vs. an opponent off a straight-up win. Moreover, home dogs of +2.5 (or more) points have cashed 67% in their home openers since 1990 if they were not unrested, and their opponent was off a home win. Grab the points with the Trail Blazers. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
10-21-22 | Nuggets +6 v. Warriors | Top | 128-123 | Win | 100 | 16 h 56 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets + the points over Golden State. The Warriors opened up the season with a blowout win over LeBron James' Lakers, 123-109. And they'll look to make it two-in-a-row tonight against a team many feel will win the title. The Nuggets are healthy this year, with Jamal Murray and Michael Porter, Jr. back on the court. Unfortunately, their presence didn't lead to a good result in Game 1, as Denver was shellacked by the Utah Jazz, 123-102. But off that embarrassing loss, we'll take Denver to bounce back tonight. Indeed, the Nuggets are 28-11 ATS in the regular season off a loss by 15+ points, if their opponent was off a win by 7+ points. Even better: defending NBA champs -- who generally receive their championship rings in the opening game -- often have letdowns in Game 2, and are a soft 2-11 ATS in their 2nd game of the season if they were playing an opponent not off a SU/ATS win. Take Denver + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie |
|||||||
10-21-22 | Celtics v. Heat +2.5 | Top | 111-104 | Loss | -107 | 14 h 33 m | Show |
At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Miami Heat + the points over the Boston Celtics. Miami was upset, 116-108, by the Chicago Bulls on Wednesday. We'll take the Heat to bounce back on Friday, as they're 44-13 ATS vs. conference rivals, if the Heat were off an upset loss, and their opponent was off a win. Take Miami. |
|||||||
10-21-22 | Raptors v. Nets -2.5 | Top | 105-109 | Win | 100 | 13 h 28 m | Show |
At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets minus the points over Toronto. The Nets lost their first home game of the season, 130-108, to the New Orleans Pelicans. Brooklyn is back at home for Game 2, and NBA home teams that were upset in their home opener typically do much better in their 2nd home game of the season, including 64.2% since 1990 vs. an opponent off a SU/ATS win. With Toronto in off a 108-105 victory over Cleveland, as a 2-point home favorite, we'll fade Toronto tonight, and lay the points with Brooklyn. |
|||||||
10-20-22 | Saints v. Cardinals -2 | Top | 34-42 | Win | 100 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Cardinals minus the points over New Orleans. The Saints are 2-4 SU/ATS this season, and have been outscored by 2.83 ppg, and have failed to cover the spread by an average of 3.33 ppg. This will be New Orleans' 3rd road game of the season, and it's 0-2 ATS in the first two, with ATS losses to the Falcons and Panthers. The Cardinals are also 2-4 straight-up, after being upset last week by the Seattle Seahawks. And that was Arizona's 2nd straight defeat, as it also fell to the 6-0 Philadelphia Eagles, 20-17, two weeks ago. But off those two losses, we'll step in and take Kliff Kingsbury's men on Thursday night. For technical support, consider that the Cardinals are a sensational 36-13 ATS at home off back to back losses, if its opponent had a negative scoring margin. Take Arizona. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
10-18-22 | Phillies v. Padres -121 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -121 | 15 h 57 m | Show |
At 8:00 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the Philadelphia Phillies. The two unlikeliest of opponents will meet in the NLCS as Wild Card teams the Phillies and Padres clash in a best-of-seven affair for a trip to the World Series. It would've been almost impossible to imagine that the Padres would have home field advantage in the Championship Series but yet here we are at Petco Park for Game 1. The Padres are also fortunate in that things lined up for their veteran RH ace, Yu Darvish to start things off on five days of rest. Darvish has done little wrong in his two 2022 post-season starts so far, going 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA with 11 strikeouts and two walks in 12 innings against the Mets and Dodgers. In two starts vs. the Phils during the regular season, Darvish allowed three runs in 13 innings (a 2.08 ERA) with 14 strikeouts and one walk. Anything close to that tonight in his pitcher-friendly home park should get the job done. The Padres are 18-3 in their last 21 games immediately following one or more off-days. And Darvish's teams are 29-13 when he's pitched with an extra day or two of rest. Take San Diego. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
10-17-22 | Broncos +5 v. Chargers | Top | 16-19 | Win | 100 | 18 h 28 m | Show |
At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Denver Broncos + the points over the Los Angeles Chargers. The Broncos are offensively-challenged. They scored just nine points in last week's 12-9 loss to the Indianapolis Colts, and are averaging just 15.0 ppg this season. In contrast, the Chargers enter tonight's game with a 24.4 ppg offensive average, and have tallied 34 and 30 points the past two weeks. This vast offensive difference (LA is 9.4 ppg better) will keep a lot of gamblers off Denver, but not me. Indeed, at Game 6 forward, NFL road teams that average 15 (or less) points per game, and at least 9.4 ppg less than their opponent, have gone 119-78-5 ATS, including 65-35-4 ATS if their opponent was off a SU/ATS win. And if it's a division game, then our 65-35-4 stat zooms to 28-9-1 ATS. That bodes well for Denver in this game. As does the fact that AFC West division teams with a losing record have gone 141-83 ATS on the road vs. division rivals, if our road team was not favored by more than 3 points. Finally, Denver is an awesome 11-0 ATS following games it failed to score 13+ points, if it was an underdog of 4+ points in the current game, and its opponent was off a win. Take the Broncos. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
10-16-22 | Cowboys v. Eagles -6 | Top | 17-26 | Win | 100 | 17 h 19 m | Show |
At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles minus the points over the Dallas Cowboys. The Eagles had a winning record last season, yet lost both games to Dallas, 51-26 and 41-21. But Philly now falls into several double-revenge systems of mine that have records of 53-28, 72-51 and 43-23 ATS. Additionally, dating back to 1989, undefeated teams (like Philly) have cashed 63.7% at home off a point spread loss if they weren’t favored by 9+ points in their current game. Take the Eagles minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
10-16-22 | Bills v. Chiefs +3 | Top | 24-20 | Loss | -120 | 13 h 25 m | Show |
At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs + the points over Buffalo. The Bills blew out Pittsburgh last week, 38-3, to move to 4-1 this season. KC is also 4-1 after outlasting the Raiders, 30-29. The Chiefs are a super 23-9 their last 32 games, and are 10-1 SU their last 11 at home. Yet they've been installed as a home underdog vs. Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills. We'll grab the points with the Chiefs, as NFL teams that have won at least 23 of their previous 32 games, have gone 20-8 ATS when not laying more than 1 point, including a perfect 9-0 ATS if their opponent was off a win by 17+ points. Take KC. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
10-16-22 | Cardinals v. Seahawks UNDER 51.5 | Top | 9-19 | Win | 100 | 13 h 6 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Under in the Arizona/Seattle game. The Cardinals have reeled off four straight Unders after last week's 20-17 loss to the Eagles went under the total by 10.5 points. And Arizona is also 15-4-1 UNDER on the road the past 3 seasons, including 8-0 Under when priced from -7 to +2.5 points. It's true that Seattle surrendered 39 points to the Saints last week, and 45 to Detroit two games back. But the Seahawks have gone under 7 of 8 after allowing 28+ points in their two previous games. And competitively-priced NFC West division games, with point spreads of 3 points or less, have gone Under 45-18-3. Take the Under. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
10-16-22 | Panthers v. Rams OVER 40.5 | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Over in the Los Angeles Rams/Carolina Panthers game. After playing two of the NFL's best defenses the past two week (49ers, Cowboys), the Rams will be ecstatic to go up against a Panthers defense which has allowed 37 and 26 points its two previous games. Los Angeles has gone Over the total 60.3% off three straight unders. Meanwhile, the Panthers are 40-22 Over as road underdogs, including 11-0 Over when the OU Line was between 40 and 42.5 points. Take the Over. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
10-16-22 | Cardinals -2 v. Seahawks | Top | 9-19 | Loss | -113 | 13 h 60 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Cardinals minus the points over Seattle. The Seahawks' defense is giving up 30.8 ppg, which is the 2nd-worst in the NFL. They’ve been installed as a home dog this Sunday. But NFL home underdogs of +2 (or more) points have covered just 40.3%, at Game 5 forward, if they were giving up more than 30 points. Take Arizona minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
10-16-22 | Jets v. Packers -7 | Top | 27-10 | Loss | -115 | 54 h 26 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Green Bay Packers minus the points over the New York Jets. The Flyboys pulled off their 2nd straight upset last week when they blew out division rival, Miami, 40-17. And they went into Pittsburgh the previous week and upset the Steelers, 24-20. Now, they'll try to make it three-upsets-in-a-row when they travel to Lambeau Field to take on Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. Unfortunately for New York, Green Bay's coming into this game off an upset loss to the New York Giants, 27-22, in London. Green Bay's 24-11 ATS with Rodgers under center off an upset loss, including 5-1 ATS vs. a foe off an upset win. Lay the points with the Packers. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
10-16-22 | Bengals v. Saints OVER 43 | Top | 30-26 | Win | 100 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Over in the Cincinnati/New Orleans game. Last week, the Saints scored 39 points in a 39-32 victory over Seattle. And their game went over the total by 26 points. We'll look for another high-scoring game on Sunday, as the Saints are 13-5 Over the total if they went Over their previous game. And they're 58-42 Over as home underdogs. Take the Over. |
|||||||
10-16-22 | Jaguars v. Colts OVER 41 | Top | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Over in the Indianapolis/Jacksonville game. The first meeting this season was a low-scoring game, as the Jaguars won 24-0. And that was the 4th straight meeting between these two division rivals that went under the total. Also, each of these teams went under the total last week. The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for another low-scoring game here. But I'll take the Over, as NFL division games have gone Over the total 55% of the time if both teams went Under their previous game; the season's previous meeting went Under, as well as the teams' last 3 meetings overall. Take the Over. |
|||||||
10-16-22 | Bucs v. Steelers +10 | Top | 18-20 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Steelers + the points over Tampa Bay. The Steelers were blown out by 35 points last week in Kenny Pickett's first start, which wasn't wholly unexpected. But off that debacle, I'll grab the points with the Men of Steel, as NFL teams that scored less than 7 points, and lost by 35+ points have covered 63.9% since 1990. Take Pittsburgh. |
|||||||
10-16-22 | Bengals -2.5 v. Saints | Top | 30-26 | Win | 100 | 10 h 55 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bengals minus the points over New Orleans. Cincinnati lost on the road last week to Baltimore, and it's back on the road this week. It's been installed as a road favorite vs. the Saints, who won last week, 39-32, vs. Seattle. The good news for Joe Burrow & Co. is that road favorites are 65.2% ATS off a road loss, if matched up against a foe off a win. Take Cincinnati. |
|||||||
10-15-22 | Dodgers -115 v. Padres | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 35 m | Show |
At 9:35 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the San Diego Padres. The Dodgers had an historic season, as they outscored their foes by 334 runs in the regular season -- tied for 3rd in the modern era (behind the 1939 Yankees and 1927 Yankees). Yet, after its 2-1 defeat last night, Los Angeles finds itself 1 loss away from an ignominious end to an otherwise great season. Tonight, Los Angeles will hand the ball to southpaw Tyler Anderson, while San Diego will go with its ace, Joe Musgrove. But even though Musgrove has been an All Star, and has thrown a no-hitter, he's never notched a win against the Dodgers. He's made nine starts for the Pirates and Padres vs. LA, but is 0-6 in those nine starts (his teams are 2-7), with a 4.59 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. Anderson has had much better success for San Diego, as he's gone 6-3 in 14 starts, with an ERA of 2.46, and a WHIP of 1.06. With LA a super 31-13 following a game where it scored less than 2 runs, we'll take Los Angeles tonight. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
10-15-22 | North Carolina v. Duke +7.5 | Top | 38-35 | Win | 100 | 16 h 25 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Duke Blue Devils + the points over North Carolina. The Blue Devils were upset in overtime, 23-20, by Georgia Tech last week to fall to 4-2 on the season. They'll now welcome their rival, North Carolina, to Durham, and have been installed as a home underdog. UNC is 5-1 this year following its upset win at Miami last Saturday. Unfortunately for Carolina, favorites off an upset win have covered just 32% over the last 43 years when playing a .666 (or better) conference foe off an upset loss. Take Duke + the points. |
|||||||
10-15-22 | USC v. Utah -3.5 | Top | 42-43 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 21 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Utah Utes minus the points over Southern Cal. The Utes were upset on the road last week by UCLA, 42-32. And that was Utah's 2nd loss on the season. But both losses were away from home; here, in Salt Lake City, Utah is 19-1 SU its last 20 vs. Division 1 FBS teams, and 14-6 ATS. USC is now 6-0 after its blowout of Washington State. But undefeated teams, with a 6-0 (or better) record, are a soft 33% as underdogs of more than 3 points against foes off an upset loss. Additionally, Utah is 12-4 ATS off an upset loss when matched up against a foe off a double-digit win. And USC is a poor 26-48-1 ATS on the road off a win. Take the Utes. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
10-15-22 | Clemson v. Florida State +4 | Top | 34-28 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 9 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Florida State Seminoles + the points over Clemson. The Seminoles lost by 10 points to Clemson last season, so they play with revenge on Saturday night vs. the undefeated Tigers. FSU's been installed as a home underdog in this ACC contest. And the Seminoles have covered 67% as revenge-minded home dogs since 1980 vs. conference rivals. Even better: Florida State lost on the road, 19-17, to NC State last week, which was its second straight loss. But the Seminoles are 41-23-3 ATS off a SU road loss. And single-digit ACC home dogs, off back to back losses, are a super 75% ATS vs. conference rivals off back to back wins. Grab the points with Florida State. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie |
|||||||
10-15-22 | Mississippi State v. Kentucky +4 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 16 h 51 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Kentucky Wildcats + the points over Mississippi State. QB Will Levis was injured in Kentucky's 22-19 loss at Mississippi two weeks ago, and missed last week's home loss to South Carolina. But Levis has been upgraded to 'probable' for this game. The Wildcats have a solid defense, and are giving up just 16.3 ppg. And that's key, as .666 (or better) home underdogs off back to back losses, that give up 20.5 (or less) points per game, have covered 64.7% since 1980. Take Kentucky + the points. |
|||||||
10-15-22 | Arizona v. Washington UNDER 72 | Top | 39-49 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
At 5:30 pm, our selection is on the Under in the Washington/Arizona game. The Huskies lost at Arizona State, 45-38, last Saturday. And that game total of 83 points was the most for a Huskies conference game since it beat California, 66-27, in 2016. We'll look for a much lower-scoring game this evening, as Pac-12 teams have gone under 59% in conference games after a conference game that totaled more than 77 points. Take the Under. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
10-15-22 | Astros v. Mariners -101 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -101 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
At 4:07 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners over the Houston Astros. After an historic loss in Game 1, one had to wonder if the Mariners would get blown out in Game 2 in Houston on Thursday. But they fought hard, and even held a 2-1 lead going into the bottom of the sixth inning before succumbing by a 4-2 margin. So rather than looking at the glass as half-empty at this point, Seattle's takeaway from its 0-2 deficit should be that it could just as easily be up 2-0 in this series. The Mariners will go with one of their many young stars on the mound today in 24-year-old RH rookie George Kirby. Kirby finished the regular season 8-5 with a 3.39 ERA in 25 starts covering 135 innings. This will be Kirby's first post-season start (he had a relief appearance in the Wild Card series against the Blue Jays) but all indications are that he's up for the challenge. Kirby's only start vs. the Astros in the regular season was decent -- two runs on four hits in four innings with seven strikeouts and one walk. Seattle is 11-4 in Kirby's last 15 starts since the beginning of July. And it's 47-38 (but +23.7 net games) off back to back losses. Take the Mariners. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
10-15-22 | Texas State v. Troy -16 | Top | 14-17 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 54 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our Sun Belt Conference Game of the Month is on the Troy Trojans minus the points over Texas State. The Bobcats pulled off a major upset last week, as a 20-point home underdog against Appalachian State. Texas State was outgained by 102 yards, yet stunned the Mountaineers, 36-24. But off that upset win, we'll look for a letdown at Troy on Saturday afternoon. Indeed, Sun Belt underdogs of more than 3 points have cashed just 12 of 49 games vs. conference foes off a straight-up win. The Trojans come into this game on a 3-game win streak (and 4-game ATS win streak). Unfortunately for the Bobcats, they're 9-18 ATS on the road vs. foes off a win, including 0-5 ATS their last five. Lay the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
10-15-22 | Charlotte v. UAB UNDER 63.5 | Top | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 33 h 53 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our Conference USA Total of the Year is on the UNDER in the Charlotte/UAB game. Charlotte has the worst defense in college football, as it's giving up 46.3 ppg. Not surprisingly, its last five games have all sailed over the total. And each of its last four games have totaled more than 75 points. But this horrendous defense has led to our Over/Under line being a bit inflated here. If one throws out UAB's first game - a 59-0 win against FCS foe Alabama A&M - then its four games against Division 1 FBS teams have averaged 49.5 ppg. UAB comes into this game off a 27-point blowout win over Middle Tenn. And UAB has gone 'under' the total 16 of 24 following a double-digit win. The Under also falls into a Totals system of mine which has cashed 64.5%. Take the Under. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
10-15-22 | NC State v. Syracuse -3 | Top | 9-24 | Win | 100 | 33 h 52 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Syracuse Orange minus the points over NC State. In a battle of top 20-ranked clubs, we'll lay the points with the undefeated home team. Syracuse has stormed out to a 5-0 record. And it's also 4-1 ATS. On Saturday, it will welcome a Wolfpack squad which is 5-1 SU, but just 2-4 ATS after dropping its 3rd straight "in Vegas" last weekend. This will be the Wolfpack's 3rd road game of the season. It lost ATS its first two. And it's a wallet-breaking 8-33-2 ATS on the road when unrested, and priced from +7.5 to -7.5 points. Take the Orange. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
10-15-22 | Oklahoma State v. TCU -3.5 | Top | 40-43 | Loss | -120 | 33 h 51 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the TCU Horned Frogs minus the points over Oklahoma State. TCU comes into this game with an unblemished 5-0 record. And it's also an undefeated 4-0-1 ATS. That bodes well for it on Saturday, as over the last 42 years, at Game 6 forward, NCAA teams that were undefeated both SU and ATS have covered the spread 64% of the time, if they weren't favored by 7+ points, and were playing at home, or on a neutral field. Additionally, the home team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Last year, the Cowboys crushed the Frogs, 63-17. But TCU is a solid 15-1 SU and 13-3 ATS when playing with revenge, if it was favored at home, and owned an .800 (or better) win percentage. Take TCU. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
10-15-22 | Northern Illinois v. Eastern Michigan UNDER 66 | Top | 39-10 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Northern Illinois/Eastern Michigan game. The Huskies have played all six of their games over the total this season, including their last two games that each totaled > 80 points, which has led to an inflated over/under line for this contest. Northern Illinois has gone under the total 70% after back to back games where 70+ points were scored. We'll look for a relatively-low scoring game here. Take the Under. |
|||||||
10-15-22 | Ohio v. Western Michigan UNDER 60 | Top | 33-14 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Ohio/Western Michigan game. Both of these teams come into this afternoon's game off high-scoring contests. The Bobcats put up 55 points last week in a 55-34 blowout of Akron, while Western Michigan lost, 45-23, at home to Eastern Michigan. The Broncos are 12-6 Under after allowing 40+ points, while Ohio is 16-8 Under after scoring 40+ points. Take the Under. |
|||||||
10-15-22 | Braves -119 v. Phillies | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -119 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
At 2:05 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the Philadelphia Phillies. The Braves have their backs against the wall today, as they must win, or their season will be over. The good news is that their pitcher, Charlie Morton, has been exceptional in his career in elimination games. Morton is 4-0 with a 0.95 ERA in such games. That bodes well for Atlanta this afternoon. Noah Syndergaard will get the start for Philly, and this will be just his 3rd start over the last five weeks. He was relegated to the bullpen in September following a 4-game stretch where his ERA was 6.14 and his WHIP was 1.50 over that four starts. But Syndergaard was tabbed for this start over Bailey Falter, who gave up 6 runs over 3 2/3 innings in his last start vs. Atlanta. The Braves already bounced back from a loss in this series to win Game 2, and they're now 41-19 (+14.2 net games) off a loss this season. Take the Braves to level this series at 2 games apiece. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
10-14-22 | Dodgers -115 v. Padres | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 5 m | Show |
At 8:37 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the San Diego Padres. The Dodgers took Game 1 of the NLDS by a 5-3 score and then the Padres responded in kind, taking a 5-3 decision on Wednesday behind Yu Darvish to even this series at 1-1. Now the series switches to San Diego for Games 3 and 4. The Padres are taking a calculated risk by starting LH Blake Snell tonight instead of RH Joe Musgrove. That's the same order they used in the three games against the Mets, but almost anyone would agree that Musgrove is a betting pitcher than Snell, who went 8-10 in 24 starts in a season that had its share of injuries. The Padres are basically gambling that they can win tonight and then have Musgrove available to close this series out in a Game 4 scenario. The problem is that in three starts vs. L.A. this season, Snell went 0-1 with a 3.86 ERA. The Dodgers will go with RH Tony Gonsolin who is a leading candidate for NL Cy Young with a 16-1 record and 2.14 ERA in 24 starts. L.A. is 4-1 in the last five meetings in San Diego, and 85-40 its last 125 vs. lefties. Take the Dodgers. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
10-14-22 | Navy v. SMU -12.5 | Top | 34-40 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the SMU Mustangs minus the points over Navy. The Mustangs lost at Central Florida, 41-19, last week. And that was their third straight loss, and 4th straight ATS defeat. Meanwhile, Navy pulled off a big upset win against Tulsa, 53-21, as a 4.5-point home dog. We'll lay the points with SMU tonight, as conference favorites of -3 (or more) points, on a 4-game ATS losing streak, have covered 75.8% since 1980 vs. foes on a 3-game ATS win streak, if their foe was off a SU win the previous week. Moreover, SMU is a solid 29-18 ATS in Conference games off back to back losses, if it was also on a 2-game ATS losing streak. Lay the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
10-13-22 | Washington Commanders -105 v. Bears | Top | 12-7 | Win | 100 | 18 h 34 m | Show |
At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Washington Commanders over the Chicago Bears. Washington has lost its last four games, including a heartbreaking 21-17 defeat last week vs. Tennessee. The Commanders had the ball first-and-goal on the Titans' 1-yard line, with less than a half-minute to go in the game. But they couldn't get the ball into the end zone and the game ended with an interception on the 3rd down play. The Bears also lost last week to the Vikings, 29-22, but covered the 8.5-point spread. We'll take Washington in this match-up, as road teams have covered the spread 62% since 2005 if they were off back to back losses, not getting more than 3 points, and were playing a non-division foe off an ATS win. Even better: the Commanders are 9-0 ATS their last nine meetings vs. the Bears in Chicago. Take Washington. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
10-12-22 | UL-Lafayette v. Marshall -10 | Top | 23-13 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Marshall Thundering Herd minus the points over Louisiana. The Rajin' Cajuns come into tonight's game off 3 straight losses, but they covered the spread in their most recent game -- a 20-17 home loss to South Alabama. Meanwhile, Marshall defeated Gardner Webb, 28-7, to start October, but failed to cover the 31.5-point spread. And that was the Thundering Herd's third straight ATS defeat. Marshall's been installed as a double-digit favorite tonight. And NCAA home teams, priced from -7 to -25 points, have been solid (108-75-3 ATS) off three straight ATS losses when matched up against foes off a point spread win. Lay the points with Marshall. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
10-11-22 | Guardians v. Yankees -198 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 16 h 21 m | Show |
At 7:37 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Cleveland Guardians. Cleveland's pitching was on display when it successfully swept the Tampa Bay Rays at home in two games to advance to the ALDS. In those two games, the Rays managed just one total run on seven hits -- and that was in 24 innings as Game 2 went 15 before the Guardians ended it with a walk-off. But any dreams by fans that they might be able to do the same thing in this series could be quickly dashed. The Yankees have a more potent offense than that of Tampa and they will open up this series in the Bronx where they've gone 57-24 this season while scoring a league-leading 419 runs (5.17 runs per game). Although you could argue that Nestor Cortes has been their best starter, the Yanks will open up with #1 RH Gerrit Cole. The 32-year-old had another outstanding season, going 13-8 with a 3.50 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in 33 starts covering 200 2/3 innings. The Guardians are 1-5 in the last six meetings and 23-49 in the last 72 match-ups at Yankee Stadium. And they're a woeful 8-16 (minus 13.4 net games) off a shutout win. Finally, New York's 49-11 +18.5 net games) as a home favorite of -200+. Take the Yankees. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
10-11-22 | Mariners v. Astros -210 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
At 3:37 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Seattle Mariners. In the upset of the post-season so far -- with the Padres being the runners-up -- the Mariners swept past the Blue Jays in Toronto to now face their division rvals in the ALDS. But now the hill gets much steeper as they face the defending AL champs. But there's a big difference between this season's version of the 'Stros and the one from 2021. Last year, as Houston was getting ready to begin the playoffs, it was doing so without veteran RH Justin Verlander. Twelve months later and Verlander is not only back, but he's a shoe-in for the AL Cy Young, having gone 18-4 with a league-leading 1.75 ERA and 0.83 WHIP in 28 starts, covering 175 innings. And Verlander's post-season numbers -- while not at that level -- are pretty darn good (14-11; 3.40 in 31 games). But most important is this: Houston is 11-1 in Verlander's last 12 starts vs. Seattle, while the Mariners are 3-4 in Logan Gilbert's seven starts vs. Houston. Take the Astros. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
10-09-22 | Padres +123 v. Mets | Top | 6-0 | Win | 123 | 14 h 13 m | Show |
At 7:35 pm, ours selection is on the San Diego Padres over the New York Mets. With their backs against the proverbial wall on Saturday night at home, the Mets won Game 2. With all the talk about the Mets' starting pitching, San Diego's rotation has matched them so far -- and then some. And it must feel pretty good to have a guy as good as Joe Musgrove ready to go in your #3 position. The 29-year-old RH gets the ball tonight for his eighth post-season appearance (and first post-season start ever. Many would argue that he's the best pitcher on the team, with a no-hitter on his resume last season and a darn good campaign in 2022 as well. In 30 starts this season, Musgrove went 10-7 with a 2.93 ERA and 1.08 WHIP, with 184 strikeouts in 181 innings. In 14 road starts this season, Musgrove was 7-3 with a 3.01 ERA. The Padres also went 6-3 in Musgrove's last nine regular season starts going back to August 20. Despite the loss in Game 2, the Padres are 5-2 in the last seven meetings going back to June 7. Take San Diego. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
10-09-22 | Cowboys v. Rams -5 | Top | 22-10 | Loss | -110 | 59 h 34 m | Show |
At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Rams minus the points over Dallas. Last week, the Rams were throttled by the San Francisco 49ers on Monday Night Football, 24-9. And that continued coach Sean McVay's point spread failures following back-to-back wins, as the Rams are now 11-28 ATS in that situation. But the Rams excel following a straight-up loss, as they're 14-6 SU and 13-6-1 ATS in those games. Even better: defending Super Bowl champs have covered 72% following a road game where they failed to cover the spread by more than 10 points. And Dallas is 2-9 ATS as a road underdog of more than 4 points off back to back ATS wins. Lay the points with Los Angeles. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
10-09-22 | 49ers v. Panthers OVER 38.5 | Top | 37-15 | Win | 100 | 58 h 11 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the San Francisco/Carolina game. Both of these teams have been playing low-scoring games this season. San Francisco's 4 games have gone under the total by 11.87 ppg, while Carolina's 4 games have gone under by 1.62 ppg. This game is a technical play for me, as it falls into Totals systems that have records of 101-51, 78-53, 71-43, 64-34 and 40-12. Additionally, the Panthers are 8-2 OVER the total following 3+ Unders, while the Niners are 6-2 OVER after 3 straight games under. Take the 49ers/Panthers Over. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie |
|||||||
10-09-22 | 49ers v. Panthers +7 | Top | 37-15 | Loss | -130 | 43 h 49 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers + the points over San Francisco. The Niners played an emotional game last week when they took down the defending Super Bowl champion Rams, 24-9, in San Francisco. Off that big divisional win, I expect a letdown in this non-division road game. Indeed, over the last 42 years, NFL road favorites have covered just 37% vs. non-division foes off a SU/ATS loss, if our road favorite was off a Monday Night divisional contest. Take Carolina + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
10-09-22 | Falcons v. Bucs -9.5 | Top | 15-21 | Loss | -110 | 40 h 45 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Bucs minus the points over the Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons come into this game with a 4-0 ATS record, and have won their last 2 straight up as underdogs vs. the Browns and Seahawks. They're also covering the spread by an average of 5.12 ppg (Tampa's covering by just 1.37 ppg). Unfortunately for the Falcons, Tom Brady's teams have gone 19-0 ATS off a straight-up loss, if they owned a worse point spread differential than their opponent, and their opponent was off back to back wins! Take Tampa Bay minus the points. |
|||||||
10-09-22 | Titans v. Washington Commanders OVER 42.5 | Top | 21-17 | Loss | -110 | 40 h 45 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Over in the Tennessee/Washington game. The Commanders had trouble scoring in their last two games but they faced two tough defenses in Philadelphia and Dallas. The Eagles are giving up just 17.5 ppg, while Dallas is surrendering just 15.5 ppg. But the Titans are giving up 25.25 ppg, so I expect Carson Wentz & Co. to do much better on offense. The Titans are 4-0 Over their last 4 (and 9-2 Over their last 11) as road favorites. Take the Titans/Commanders game Over the total. |
|||||||
10-09-22 | Seahawks v. Saints -4.5 | Top | 32-39 | Win | 100 | 40 h 43 m | Show |
At 1 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the New Orleans Saints minus the points over Seattle. The Seahawks won a thriller in Detroit last week, 48-45, and are an underdog at New Orleans this Sunday. We’ll lay the points, as favorites have covered 64.3% since 1980 if their opponent was off an upset win, and scored 48+ points the previous week. Additionally, the Saints are 10-0 ATS when favored in non-division games, if they were off a loss, owned a losing record, and their opponent was off a win. Lay the points with the Saints. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
10-09-22 | Titans v. Washington Commanders +2 | Top | 21-17 | Loss | -110 | 40 h 42 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Washington Commanders + the points over Tennessee. Last week, the Titans upset the Indianapolis Colts, 24-17, as a 4-point road underdog, to move their record to 2-2 SU/ATS this season. Washington is 1-3 SU/ATS after dropping a 25-10 decision to rival Dallas on the road. We'll fade the Titans, as they're 0-9-1 ATS in non-division games following an upset win, if matched up against an opponent off a SU loss. And Washington is a solid 37-21 ATS as an underdog of +10 (or less) points when playing a non-division foe off back to back wins. Take Washington + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
10-08-22 | Padres v. Mets -170 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 14 h 17 m | Show |
At 7:37 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the San Diego Padres. With a devasting home loss to the Padres on Friday night, the Mets will turn to ace Jacob deGrom tonight in a must-win Game 2. Max Scherzer didn't have anything and Yu Darvish had everything in a stunning game that put the Mets in a big hole. But this is no time to panic, especially with the man considered by most to be the best pitcher in the game set to start for the home team tonight. 34-year-old RH deGrom didn't begin his 2022 campaign until August due to a shoulder issue, but when he finally made it to the mound, he was mostly lights out. deGrom finished the regular season with a 5-4 record and 3.08 ERA and 0.75 WHIP with a ridiculous 12.75 K:BB ratio (102 strikeouts and only eight walks in 64 1/3 innings). In his post-season career, deGrom is 3-1 with a 2.88 ERA in four starts covering 25 innings. And in 10 career starts against the Padres covering 70 1/3 innings, deGrom is 6-3 with a 1.28 ERA and 0.74 WHIP. Take the Mets. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
10-08-22 | Clemson -20 v. Boston College | Top | 31-3 | Win | 100 | 38 h 7 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Clemson Tigers minus the points over Boston College. The Eagles stunned Louisville last week, 34-33, as a 13.5-point home underdog. And that was the first time all season that Boston College covered the point spread (BC is 2-3 SU, and 1-4 ATS, and has failed to cover by an average of 5.25 ppg this season). The Eagles will remain in Chestnut Hill on Saturday night to take on the highly-ranked Tigers. Unfortunately for the Eagles, they're a terrible 10-17-1 ATS at home off an upset win, including 0-6 ATS vs. foes off a SU/ATS win. And with Clemson in off a 30-20 win over then-No. 10 ranked-NC State, our 0-6 angle is satisfied. Even worse for the Eagles: Clemson is a dominant 23-7-1 ATS vs. foes off an upset win, including 16-0 ATS vs. < .750 foes that have an average point spread differential less than 3 ppg. Lay the points with Clemson. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
10-08-22 | Western Kentucky +7 v. UTSA | Top | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 36 h 26 m | Show |
At 6:00 pm, our selection is on the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers + the points over Texas-San Antonio. Both teams enter this game with identical 3-2 SU/ATS records. The Hilltoppers lost at home, 34-27, as a 5-point home favorite to Troy last Saturday, while UTSA defeated Middle Tennessee, 45-30. This game is a rematch of last season's Conference USA championship game, which was won by the Roadrunners, 49-41. We'll take Western Kentucky to avenge that defeat, as it is 16-0 ATS on the road when priced from -3 to +12 points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie |
|||||||
10-08-22 | Western Kentucky v. UTSA UNDER 73.5 | Top | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 36 h 17 m | Show |
At 6 pm, our selection is on Texas-San Antonio and Western Kentucky Under the total. The Roadrunners have played all five of their games over the total. And their games have totaled 72, 79, 61, 76 and 75 points. These extremely high-scoring games have led to a very high Over/Under line for this game. I think the line is too high. Indeed, NCAA games with Over/Under lines greater than 71 points have gone under the total 58% of the time if a team's previous two games went over the total, and each totaled more than 71 points. Additionally, the Under falls into a Totals system of mine which has cashed 64.1%. Take the Hilltoppers and Roadrunners Under. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
10-08-22 | Mariners v. Blue Jays -147 | Top | 10-9 | Loss | -147 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
At 4:07 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Seattle Mariners. How good does it feel to be the Mariners right now? They upset the Blue Jays in Game 1 on Friday -- shut them out 4-0 as a matter of fact -- and now they have the reigning Cy Young Award winner ready to go tonight. And he's pitching against his former team to boot. But before we move Seattle ahead in the AL brackets, let's consider a few things. First, there's the fact that the M's were one of the worst-hitting teams in the league this year (.230 overall), and after the All Star break they hit a paltry .221 -- tied for the worst number in the Majors with the Marlins. Second is the fact that LHP Robbie Ray did not perform all that well away from Seattle this season. In 14 starts on the road covering 78 2/3 innings, Ray went 6-6 with a 4.69 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. This compared with 3.02 and 1.02 in 18 starts covering 110 1/3 innings at home. The Mariners ended the regular season 0-5 in Ray's last five starts. The home team is 6-2 in the last eight meetings of these two clubs. Take the Blue Jays. As always, good luck...Al McMordie |
|||||||
10-08-22 | Duke -3.5 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 20-23 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 44 m | Show |
At 4 pm, our selection is on the Duke Blue Devils minus the points over Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets fired coach Geoff Collins and athletic director Todd Stansbury last month on the heels of a 27-10 loss to UCF (which was Georgia Tech's 9th straight loss to a Division 1 FBS opponent). Brent Key was named interim head football coach, and his team rewarded him with a 26-21 upset win at Pittsburgh last Saturday. The Jackets were massive 21.5-point underdogs in that game, and were outgained on the day by the Panthers. But Georgia Tech took advantage of 3 Pittsburgh turnovers to get the outright win. But off that upset, I expect a letdown vs. Duke, as losing teams have covered just 33% as home dogs since 1983 off upset wins as a dog of more than 21 points. Take Duke to rout the Yellow Jackets. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
10-08-22 | Utah v. UCLA +3.5 | Top | 32-42 | Win | 100 | 34 h 1 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the UCLA Bruins + the points over Utah. This is a great Pac-12 battle at the Rose Bowl on Saturday afternoon. Utah opened its season with an upset loss at the hands of the Florida Gators, 29-26. But the Utes have rebounded to win and cover each of their next four games, and have been installed as a road favorite here, in Pasadena. UCLA, for its part, survived a scare by South Alabama in Week 3, and is now 5-0 SU and 3-2 ATS. And both teams are undefeated in Pac-12 play, with 2-0 records (USC and Oregon are also undefeated). The Bruins have historically been strong as a home underdog, including an awesome 31-12-2 ATS against foes not off a point spread loss. Meanwhile, Utah is an underwhelming 9-19 ATS as a single-digit road favorite vs. an opponent off a SU win. And Pac-12 road teams, with a 2-0 (or better) conference record, have covered just 30 of 78 games vs. foes with a winning Pac-12 record. Take UCLA + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
10-08-22 | Toledo v. Northern Illinois UNDER 60 | Top | 52-32 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 45 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on Toledo and Northern Illinois Under the total. We had our NCAA Total of the Month in September on the Under in Toledo's game vs. San Diego State, and we'll come right back with the Under in this game vs. Northern Illinois. The Huskies are 43-24 Under in home conference games. And the Under also falls into a 98-49 Totals system of mine. Take the Under. |
|||||||
10-08-22 | Missouri v. Florida -10.5 | Top | 17-24 | Loss | -105 | 31 h 39 m | Show |
At 12 Noon, on Saturday, our selection is on the Florida Gators minus the points over Missouri. The Tigers almost pulled off the season's biggest upset last week when they took #1 Georgia down to the wire before falling, 26-22, as a 31-point home dog. That will be a tough game to bounce back from, as NCAA teams have covered just 31.8% after losing to the defending National Champs by a touchdown or less. And the SEC road has not been kind to Missouri, as the Tigers are a dismal 7-20 SU and 8-19 ATS at SEC rivals, including 1-18 SU and 5-14 ATS when not favored by more than 3 points. Florida is a powerful 71% since 1980 as a double-digit home favorite vs. losing teams off an ATS win. Lay the points with the Gators. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
10-08-22 | TCU v. Kansas +7 | Top | 38-31 | Push | 0 | 30 h 17 m | Show |
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Kansas Jayhawks + the points over TCU. The Horned Frogs and Jayhawks are both undefeated SU and ATS this season. TCU is 4-0 SU/ATS following an upset win over the Oklahoma Sooners, 55-24, while Kansas is 5-0 SU/ATS following an upset win over Iowa State, 14-11. We'll fade TCU as road favorites off an upset win in which they scored 50+ points are an abysmal 1-12 ATS their last 13. Take Kansas + the points. |
|||||||
10-07-22 | Houston +2.5 v. Memphis | Top | 33-32 | Win | 100 | 14 h 22 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Houston Cougars + the points over Memphis. The Coogs have largely stumbled this season, as they're 1-4 ATS, and have lost two games outright as 8.5 and 4.5-point favorites. Their lone point spread win this season was when they were installed as a 4-point underdog at Texas Tech. And they covered the spread in that game -- a 33-30 loss. Houston is 22-11-1 ATS its last 34 as an underdog, including 14-4-1 ATS on the road. That bodes well for Houston here. As does the fact that the Cougars are 10-2 ATS off an upset loss at home to a conference rival. Meanwhile, the Tigers are a wallet-breaking 10-35-1 ATS as a single-digit home favorite! Grab the points with Houston. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
10-07-22 | Rays +107 v. Guardians | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 0 m | Show |
At 12:05 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Cleveland Guardians. The Rays come into the playoffs on a 5-game losing streak, but none of that matters in this short, best-of-three series. The opening game will feature two former All-Star pitchers in Shane McClanahan (2022) and Shane Bieber (2019, 2021), and the over under line has been installed at 6 runs. McClanahan has done his best work on the road this season, as he's compiled a 2.08 ERA and a 0.75 WHIP in 10 road starts (compared to a 2.89 ERA and 1.02 WHIP at home). Meanwhile, the Guardians have struggled at home vs. top-flight American League starting pitchers with ERAs less than 2.90, as they've won just 34 of 84 games (minus 18.4 net games on the moneyline). Tampa Bay is a sensational 20-5 (+19.2 net games) on the road when the Over/Under has been 7 runs or less. And the Rays also excel in the daytime, as they're 91-57 (+21.3 net games). We'll take Tampa Bay. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
10-05-22 | Blue Jays v. Orioles -133 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 3 h 40 m | Show |
At 12:35 pm, in Game 1 of the Double-Header, our selection is on the Baltimore Orioles over the Toronto Blue Jays. They didn't make the playoffs, but no team in baseball can be any more optimistic for the future than the Orioles. With the lowest team payroll in the Majors, the O's surprised everyone -- perhaps except themselves -- by posting a winning record and staying alive in the AL Wild Card race until the last few days. With some of the best young players on the planet, no team's fans are looking forward to next season more than those in Baltimore. The remnants of Hurricane Ian put a damper on things in the area on Tuesday so the O's and Jays will finish the season with a double-header today. In Game 1, the O's will send out RH Mike Baumann for his fourth start of the season. The 27-year-old has been used primarily as a reliever this season but the O's have enough faith in Baumann to give him a final start this afternoon. It's a chance for revenge as the Jays beat Baumann exactly one month ago -- ironically also in the first of a double-header -- here at Camden Yards. Take the Orioles. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
10-04-22 | Rockies v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -150 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers minus 1.5 runs over Colorado. The Rockies won last night, 2-1, which was L.A.'s second straight loss. But Los Angeles generally bounces back off low-scoring games, as it's 33-5 at home after scoring less than 3 runs. Even better: it's 48-16 behind its southpaw, Julio Urias, who has gone 10-1 with a 1.12 ERA over his last 13 outings. Urias will be opposed by Colorado's Ryan Feltner, who will be making his 21st career start. The Rockies have gone 6-14 in his other starts, including 2-9 on the road, and 0-8 in games where the Over/Under was less than 9 runs. Feltner's ERA since August has been 6.29, and he's made just one quality start over his last 13. Take Los Angeles minus 1.5 runs. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
10-04-22 | Giants +139 v. Padres | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Giants over the San Diego Padres. The Phillies have joined the Padres in the final two Wild Card spots in the National League, leaving the Brewers on the outside looking in this season. Since they will have to settle for the 5th or 6th seed -- that has yet to be determined -- the Pads rested a couple of their regular starters last night against the Giants and they may do the same tonight in their next-to-last game of the regular season. The NL Cy Young award won't go to the Giants' Carlos Rodon, but the lefty is right in the mix for another top pitching honor. The 29-year-old All Star is in a tight battle with Corbin Burnes for the NL strikeout title, and he has a 2.88 ERA in 31 starts with a league-leading 12.0 K rate. In his only other start at Petco Park this season, Rodon threw a complete game, allowing one run one on three hits with 12 strikeouts in a 3-1 Giants victory. Take San Francisco. |
|||||||
10-04-22 | Phillies v. Astros -191 | Top | 0-10 | Win | 100 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Philadelphia Phillies. The Astros have locked up the best record and number 1 seed in the American League, so you could say that these final games don't mean anything to them -- just that they want to make sure they stay healthy. But this one actually does mean something to Houston and its ace RHP, Justin Verlander. The 'Stros would like to see Verlander get his 18th win tonight as it just might clinch his third Cy Young award. Verlander not only already leads the AL with a 17-4 record, but he is also out in front with a 1.85 ERA, an .810 win percentage, a 0.85 WHIP, and hit rate of just 6.1. There are few pitchers in the history of the game that have dominated in inter-league games like Verlander. In 54 appearances (all starts) against the NL, Verlander is an incredible 37-8 with a 2.62 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. And against the Phillies, the 39-year-old is 2-0 with a 1.93 ERA in two starts covering 14 innings. Despite the loss last night, the home team is 6-3 in the last nine meetings of these two teams. Take the Astros. |
|||||||
10-04-22 | Nationals v. Mets -1.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 2 h 29 m | Show |
At 4:10 pm, in Game 1 of the Double Header, our selection is on the New York Mets minus 1.5 runs over the Washington Nationals. The only pennant race left in the Majors could come down to the final day. The Mets surely can't be happy with their getting swept over the weekend by the Braves. Those three losses (combined with Atlanta's loss yesterday) puts Atlanta up by 1.5 games with an elimination number of just one. But the good news is that the Braves have to play a pesky Marlins club while the Mets are at home facing the team with the worst record in baseball -- Washington. So there's certainly reason for optimism in Queens. Veteran RH Carlos Carrasco will start things off for the home team this afternoon. After a very good month of July, the 35-year-old has been very inconsistent in August and September. Carrasco can certainly put the poor starts he's had recently out of everyone's mind with a quality outing tonight. He's done by far his best work this season at Citi Field. In 16 starts here covering 87 innings, Carrasco is 9-3 with a 3.52 ERA vs. 6-4 and 4.57 in 12 starts on the road. Take the Mets minus 1.5 runs. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
10-03-22 | Rockies v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -150 | 16 h 55 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers minus 1.5 runs over Colorado. Tony Gonsolin will make his return from the Injured List tonight. And all Gonsolin has done this year is go 16-1, with a 2.10 ERA and 0.86 WHIP. And the Dodgers are 22-4 his last 26 starts (dating back to last season). Jose Urena will get the ball for Colorado tonight. For the season, in 16 starts, Urena has a 5.40 ERA and 1.62 WHIP. And, dating back to last year, Urena's teams (Brewers, Rockies) have lost 16 of his last 23 starts, including a 13-0 loss to the Dodgers the last time Urena faced them on July 28. Take Los Angeles minus 1.5 runs. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
10-03-22 | Diamondbacks v. Brewers -220 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Arizona Diamondbacks. With the Padres having secured their Wild Card berth on Sunday (despite losing), the final spot in the National League comes down to the Phillies and Brewers. The Phils hold a two-game lead after winning their last couple of games over the woeful Nats on Saturday and Sunday (the Brewers didn't help themselves by losing their last two). The good news for Milwaukee (if there is any) is that while Philly has to go to Houston this week for its last three, the Crew gets to host the D-Backs. In the first game, the Brewers will send out RHP Brandon Woodruff. The 29-year-old has been on fire recently. Over his last four starts, Woodruff is 4-0 with a 1.38 ERA with 42 strikeouts and five walks in 26 innings. Woodruff's overall numbers are very good, but at home he is in another zone. In 12 starts this season here at American Family Field covering 72 2/3 innings he is 8-0 with a 1.98 ERA and 0.85 WHIP. The Brewers are also 4-1 in Woodruff's five career starts vs. the D-Backs going back to May of 2018. Take Milwaukee. |
|||||||
10-02-22 | Cardinals +1.5 v. Panthers | Top | 26-16 | Win | 100 | 59 h 47 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Cardinals over the Carolina Panthers. The Cardinals made the playoffs last season, but one of their not-so-good games came at the hands of the Panthers, who blew them out, 34-10, as a 7-point road underdog. And, improbably, that was the sixth straight double-digit win (including 3 straight upsets) by Carolina over Arizona in this series. The Cardinals have surely gotten off to a worrisome 1-2 start this year. They know they can’t fall to 1-3 as that might be too deep of a hole from which to dig out. Part of the reason Arizona is 1-2 is that it was saddled with a difficult opening schedule. Indeed, its first 3 opponents (Chiefs, Raiders, Rams) also made the Playoffs last season. But this week's opponent -- Carolina -- was just 5-12 last season, so it's a step-down in class for Arizona. For technical support, consider that NFL underdogs with a losing record, that made the Playoffs the previous season, have gone 19-2 ATS in Week 4, if they were playing another losing team. Take the Cardinals. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
10-02-22 | Marlins v. Brewers -160 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -160 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Miami Marlins. If the Brewers make it into the post-season, they might want to send some flowers to the Cubs and Nationals. Locked in a tight Wild Card race with the Phillies, the Brewers have watched as the Cubs swept the Phils over three games last week and then the Nats blasted them on Saturday in the first game of a double-header by a 13-4 score. Without Philly's poor play, Milwaukee would be all but eliminated from playoff contention. They'll get a chance to pull even with the Phillies this afternoon if they can beat the Marlins, and the Nats can upset Philadelphia. RHP Freddy Peralta will take the mound for the Brewers. The 26-year-old was sidelined due to a lat muscle injury early on and then again this month due to shoulder fatigue. He appears to be healthy now and that's very good news for his team as it tries to grab the final MLB Wild Card spot. The Brewers are 18-11 in Peralta's last 29 outings with an extra day or two of rest following his previous start. Meanwhile, the Marlins are 1-3 in Pablo Lopez's four starts vs. the Brewers. Take Milwaukee. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
10-02-22 | Chargers -5 v. Texans | Top | 34-24 | Win | 100 | 56 h 37 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Chargers minus the points over Houston. The Chargers were upset at home by the Jacksonville Jaguars last week, 38-10. But off that upset loss, I’ll look for Los Angeles to rebound here, as road favorites off 17-point (or worse) upset losses have covered 72% since 1998. Even better: the Chargers are 49-29-6 ATS off an upset loss. And they're also 27-6-2 ATS on the road following a game where they scored less than 14 points, provided they weren't getting more than 10 in the current game. Lay the points with the Chargers. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
10-02-22 | Jaguars v. Eagles OVER 45.5 | Top | 21-29 | Win | 100 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles and Jacksonville Jaguars OVER the total. The Jaguars are giving up just 12.66 ppg, and outscoring their foes by 15.33 ppg, while Philly is surrendering just 16.66 ppg, and outscoring its foes by 12 ppg. I think this will be a high scoring affair. At Game 4 forward, when you get a team (like Jacksonville) holding its opponents to 13 or less points per game, its games have gone Over the total 60.1% since 1980 if the Line was greater than 41 points. And in matchups between two teams with scoring margins > 7 ppg, those games have gone Over the total 57% since 1980 when the line was greater than 43 points. Take the Over. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
10-02-22 | Washington Commanders +3.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 10-25 | Loss | -122 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Washington Commanders + the points over the Dallas Cowboys. Washington opened its season with a nice win over the Jacksonville Jaguars, but lost to Detroit and Philly in Weeks 2 + 3. In contrast, the Cowboys opened their season with a loss to Tampa, but rebounded in Weeks 2 + 3 with back to back upset wins, including a 23-16 victory at the New York Giants this past Monday. Unfortunately for Dallas, NFL teams off a division upset win (and back to back upset wins, overall) have covered just 22% the past 43 seasons vs. division foes off back to back SU/ATS losses. That doesn't bode well for the Cowboys this afternoon. Nor does the fact that this has been an underdog-oriented rivalry, with the dog going 50-26-1 ATS in the last 77 meetings. Grab the points with Washington. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
10-01-22 | UAB -10 v. Rice | Top | 24-28 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 53 m | Show |
At 7:30pm, our selection is on the Alabama-Birmingham Blazers minus the points over Rice. This is a huge revenge game for the Blazers, as they were favored by 23.5 points last year at home vs. Rice, but lost, 30-24. The Owls hung tough at Houston last Saturday, but ultimately succumbed to the Cougars, 34-27, as a 17.5-point road underdog. UAB had last week off after defeating Georgia Southern two weeks ago, 35-21, as an 11.5-point home favorite. We played on UAB in that victory, and will come back with them here, on the road, at Rice. UAB is a solid 14-7-2 ATS when playing with rest vs. a conference foe. And Rice is a horrid 1-10 ATS when getting 2+ points against a revenge-minded foe. Lay the points with Alabama-Birmingham. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
10-01-22 | NC State v. Clemson UNDER 45.5 | Top | 20-30 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 43 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Clemson/North Carolina State game. Earlier in the week, it appeared as if Columbia, SC may have been in for some real bad weather today. And the Over/Under line got as low as 39.5 in anticipation of that. But the city has been fortunate to largely escape the wrath of Hurricane Ian, and today's game will be played under mostly cloudy skies, and with low wind. So, the Over/Under line has snapped back to where it was last Sunday night. Last week, the Wolfpack blew out UConn, 41-10, while the Tigers won, 51-45, over Wake Forest. But I look for a lower-scoring game here, as the Tigers are 16-9 UNDER after playing a game Over the total. And they're 28-12 UNDER after scoring 45+ points in their previous game. Moreover, ACC games have gone 55-30 UNDER if both teams went OVER in their previous game. Take the Wolfpack/Tigers game UNDER the total. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
10-01-22 | Marlins v. Brewers -175 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -175 | 16 h 22 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Miami Marlins. With just six games left in the regular season, the Brewers find themselves in one of the closest playoff races they've ever been involved in -- although this is nothing new for them. In 2019 for example, Milwaukee lost a one-game Wild-Card elimination after holding a 3-1 lead over the Nationals heading into the bottom of the eighth inning. Even though the sting of that one is behind them, the Brewers just never seem to do anything easily, lately. And this year is no exception. RHP Aaron Ashby will take the mound tonight. The 24-year-old southpaw made one other appearance vs. the Marlins this season. That was back on May 15, and he held them hitless over 4 innings, and struck out eight. He'll match up against righty Edward Cabrera, who will be facing the Brewers for the first time in his career. After last night's loss, Miami is a wallet-breaking 10-32 its last 42 vs. winning teams, and 8-33 (minus 20.4 net games) when priced from +150 to +200 on the road.Take Milwaukee. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
10-01-22 | Oklahoma State +2.5 v. Baylor | Top | 36-25 | Win | 100 | 52 h 31 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma State Cowboys + the points over Baylor. This game has been circled for months on the Cowboys' calendar, as Baylor knocked it off in the Big 12 Title game last December. The Bears were a touchdown underdog in that game, but won a thriller, 21-16, when the Cowboys' Dezmon Jackson came up inches short of a game-winning TD when he dove for the pylon on a 4th-and-goal play with less than 30 seconds left in the game. Two weeks ago, Oklahoma State blew out Pine Bluff, 63-7. And Okie State is 41-12 ATS off a win in which it scored 50+ points. Additionally, early in the season, rested, revenging road teams have cashed 65.9% when playing with revenge from an upset loss, if not favored by 7+ points in the current game. Take the Cowboys + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
10-01-22 | Texas State +22 v. James Madison | Top | 13-40 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 29 m | Show |
At 1:30 pm, our selection is on the Texas State Bobcats + the points over James Madison. This is JMU's first season at the Division 1 (FBS) level, and it's off to a 3-0 SU/ATS start, with three impressive victories over Middle Tenn (44-7), Norfolk (63-7) and Appalachian St (32-28). We played on the Dukes last week, as a touchdown underdog, and it stormed back from an early 28-3 deficit to upend Appalachian St in Boone. The Dukes return home to Harrisonburg for this game, and have been installed as a greater-than-three-touchdown favorite against the Bobcats. Off that big emotional win (its first conference game at this level), I'll look for a letdown on Saturday. Take Texas State + the points. |
|||||||
10-01-22 | Michigan v. Iowa +11 | Top | 27-14 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 1 m | Show |
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Iowa Hawkeyes + the points over Michigan. The Hawkeyes come into this game off back to back SU/ATS wins, as they held their last two opponents (Rutgers, Nevada) to 10 and 0 points, respectively. For the season, Iowa's given up just 5.7 ppg. And they're holding their opponents to a mere 2.2 yards per rush. I like playing on certain defensive-minded underdogs with strong rush defenses. Indeed, since 1980, at Game 5 forward, NCAA underdogs that give up less than 14 points per game, and less than 2.75 ypr, are 122-68 ATS if they come into the game off a momentum-building win. Even better: if our puppy is playing at home vs. a conference foe, then our 122-68 ATS angle zooms to 21-5 ATS. Take Iowa + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
10-01-22 | Temple v. Memphis -18 | Top | 3-24 | Win | 100 | 48 h 0 m | Show |
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Memphis Tigers minus the points over Temple. This is a big revenge game for Memphis which was upset by Temple last season, 34-31, as an 11-point road favorite. The Owls do come into this game off three straight ATS wins. But all three of those games were at home. In Temple's lone road game this season, it was blown out, 30-0, by Duke. And that continued the Owls' road woes, as they're 3-14 SU and 5-12 ATS away from home, including 0-5 SU/ATS since Oct 8, 2021. Even worse: Temple's 0-7 SU/ATS its last seven conference games, while Memphis is a solid 11-6 ATS at home when playing with revenge vs. a conference foe. Take Memphis minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
10-01-22 | Navy v. Air Force -14 | Top | 10-13 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 57 m | Show |
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Air Force minus the points over Navy. The Midshipmen upset East Carolina last Saturday, 23-20, while Air Force ran over Nevada, 48-20. We'll fade Navy, as it's 5-20 ATS in non-conference games off an upset win, if its opponent was also off a SU win. Take Air Force. |
Register for an Account Now for Free Picks and More Special Offers!
Big Al McMordie ALL Sports Top Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
10-24-22 | Nets v. Grizzlies -1.5 | Top | 124-134 | Win | 100 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
10-24-22 | Raptors +3.5 v. Heat | Top | 98-90 | Win | 100 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
10-24-22 | Pacers v. 76ers -11.5 | Top | 106-120 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
10-23-22 | Suns +2.5 v. Clippers | Top | 112-95 | Win | 100 | 15 h 54 m | Show |
10-23-22 | Kings v. Warriors -8.5 | Top | 125-130 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 25 m | Show |
10-23-22 | Jets v. Broncos +2 | Top | 16-9 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
10-23-22 | Blazers v. Lakers -3 | Top | 106-104 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
10-23-22 | Padres v. Phillies OVER 6.5 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 20 m | Show |
10-23-22 | Giants v. Jaguars -3 | Top | 23-17 | Loss | -110 | 55 h 45 m | Show |
10-23-22 | Lions +6.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 6-24 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 13 m | Show |
10-23-22 | Browns +7 v. Ravens | Top | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 6 h 50 m | Show |
10-22-22 | Washington v. California +7.5 | Top | 28-21 | Win | 100 | 40 h 12 m | Show |
10-22-22 | Cavs -1.5 v. Bulls | Top | 128-96 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
10-22-22 | Pittsburgh v. Louisville UNDER 55.5 | Top | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 38 h 33 m | Show |
10-22-22 | Mississippi State v. Alabama UNDER 61.5 | Top | 6-30 | Win | 100 | 37 h 38 m | Show |
10-22-22 | Fresno State v. New Mexico +11 | Top | 41-9 | Loss | -115 | 36 h 6 m | Show |
10-22-22 | Spurs v. 76ers -12.5 | Top | 114-105 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
10-22-22 | UCLA v. Oregon -6 | Top | 30-45 | Win | 100 | 33 h 13 m | Show |
10-22-22 | North Texas v. UTSA -10 | Top | 27-31 | Loss | -107 | 33 h 11 m | Show |
10-22-22 | Marshall +12.5 v. James Madison | Top | 26-12 | Win | 100 | 33 h 7 m | Show |
10-22-22 | Florida International v. Charlotte OVER 63.5 | Top | 34-15 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 4 m | Show |
10-22-22 | Memphis v. Tulane UNDER 56 | Top | 28-38 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 2 m | Show |
10-22-22 | Iowa v. Ohio State -28.5 | Top | 10-54 | Win | 100 | 30 h 40 m | Show |
10-21-22 | Suns v. Blazers +5 | Top | 111-113 | Win | 100 | 16 h 59 m | Show |
10-21-22 | Nuggets +6 v. Warriors | Top | 128-123 | Win | 100 | 16 h 56 m | Show |
10-21-22 | Celtics v. Heat +2.5 | Top | 111-104 | Loss | -107 | 14 h 33 m | Show |
10-21-22 | Raptors v. Nets -2.5 | Top | 105-109 | Win | 100 | 13 h 28 m | Show |
10-20-22 | Saints v. Cardinals -2 | Top | 34-42 | Win | 100 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
10-18-22 | Phillies v. Padres -121 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -121 | 15 h 57 m | Show |
10-17-22 | Broncos +5 v. Chargers | Top | 16-19 | Win | 100 | 18 h 28 m | Show |
10-16-22 | Cowboys v. Eagles -6 | Top | 17-26 | Win | 100 | 17 h 19 m | Show |
10-16-22 | Bills v. Chiefs +3 | Top | 24-20 | Loss | -120 | 13 h 25 m | Show |
10-16-22 | Cardinals v. Seahawks UNDER 51.5 | Top | 9-19 | Win | 100 | 13 h 6 m | Show |
10-16-22 | Panthers v. Rams OVER 40.5 | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
10-16-22 | Cardinals -2 v. Seahawks | Top | 9-19 | Loss | -113 | 13 h 60 m | Show |
10-16-22 | Jets v. Packers -7 | Top | 27-10 | Loss | -115 | 54 h 26 m | Show |
10-16-22 | Bengals v. Saints OVER 43 | Top | 30-26 | Win | 100 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
10-16-22 | Jaguars v. Colts OVER 41 | Top | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
10-16-22 | Bucs v. Steelers +10 | Top | 18-20 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
10-16-22 | Bengals -2.5 v. Saints | Top | 30-26 | Win | 100 | 10 h 55 m | Show |
10-15-22 | Dodgers -115 v. Padres | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 35 m | Show |
10-15-22 | North Carolina v. Duke +7.5 | Top | 38-35 | Win | 100 | 16 h 25 m | Show |
10-15-22 | USC v. Utah -3.5 | Top | 42-43 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 21 m | Show |
10-15-22 | Clemson v. Florida State +4 | Top | 34-28 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 9 m | Show |
10-15-22 | Mississippi State v. Kentucky +4 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 16 h 51 m | Show |
10-15-22 | Arizona v. Washington UNDER 72 | Top | 39-49 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
10-15-22 | Astros v. Mariners -101 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -101 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
10-15-22 | Texas State v. Troy -16 | Top | 14-17 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 54 m | Show |
10-15-22 | Charlotte v. UAB UNDER 63.5 | Top | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 33 h 53 m | Show |
10-15-22 | NC State v. Syracuse -3 | Top | 9-24 | Win | 100 | 33 h 52 m | Show |
10-15-22 | Oklahoma State v. TCU -3.5 | Top | 40-43 | Loss | -120 | 33 h 51 m | Show |
10-15-22 | Northern Illinois v. Eastern Michigan UNDER 66 | Top | 39-10 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
10-15-22 | Ohio v. Western Michigan UNDER 60 | Top | 33-14 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
10-15-22 | Braves -119 v. Phillies | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -119 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
10-14-22 | Dodgers -115 v. Padres | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 5 m | Show |
10-14-22 | Navy v. SMU -12.5 | Top | 34-40 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
10-13-22 | Washington Commanders -105 v. Bears | Top | 12-7 | Win | 100 | 18 h 34 m | Show |
10-12-22 | UL-Lafayette v. Marshall -10 | Top | 23-13 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
10-11-22 | Guardians v. Yankees -198 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 16 h 21 m | Show |
10-11-22 | Mariners v. Astros -210 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
10-09-22 | Padres +123 v. Mets | Top | 6-0 | Win | 123 | 14 h 13 m | Show |
10-09-22 | Cowboys v. Rams -5 | Top | 22-10 | Loss | -110 | 59 h 34 m | Show |
10-09-22 | 49ers v. Panthers OVER 38.5 | Top | 37-15 | Win | 100 | 58 h 11 m | Show |
10-09-22 | 49ers v. Panthers +7 | Top | 37-15 | Loss | -130 | 43 h 49 m | Show |
10-09-22 | Falcons v. Bucs -9.5 | Top | 15-21 | Loss | -110 | 40 h 45 m | Show |
10-09-22 | Titans v. Washington Commanders OVER 42.5 | Top | 21-17 | Loss | -110 | 40 h 45 m | Show |
10-09-22 | Seahawks v. Saints -4.5 | Top | 32-39 | Win | 100 | 40 h 43 m | Show |
10-09-22 | Titans v. Washington Commanders +2 | Top | 21-17 | Loss | -110 | 40 h 42 m | Show |
10-08-22 | Padres v. Mets -170 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 14 h 17 m | Show |
10-08-22 | Clemson -20 v. Boston College | Top | 31-3 | Win | 100 | 38 h 7 m | Show |
10-08-22 | Western Kentucky +7 v. UTSA | Top | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 36 h 26 m | Show |
10-08-22 | Western Kentucky v. UTSA UNDER 73.5 | Top | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 36 h 17 m | Show |
10-08-22 | Mariners v. Blue Jays -147 | Top | 10-9 | Loss | -147 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
10-08-22 | Duke -3.5 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 20-23 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 44 m | Show |
10-08-22 | Utah v. UCLA +3.5 | Top | 32-42 | Win | 100 | 34 h 1 m | Show |
10-08-22 | Toledo v. Northern Illinois UNDER 60 | Top | 52-32 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 45 m | Show |
10-08-22 | Missouri v. Florida -10.5 | Top | 17-24 | Loss | -105 | 31 h 39 m | Show |
10-08-22 | TCU v. Kansas +7 | Top | 38-31 | Push | 0 | 30 h 17 m | Show |
10-07-22 | Houston +2.5 v. Memphis | Top | 33-32 | Win | 100 | 14 h 22 m | Show |
10-07-22 | Rays +107 v. Guardians | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 0 m | Show |
10-05-22 | Blue Jays v. Orioles -133 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 3 h 40 m | Show |
10-04-22 | Rockies v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -150 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
10-04-22 | Giants +139 v. Padres | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
10-04-22 | Phillies v. Astros -191 | Top | 0-10 | Win | 100 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
10-04-22 | Nationals v. Mets -1.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 2 h 29 m | Show |
10-03-22 | Rockies v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -150 | 16 h 55 m | Show |
10-03-22 | Diamondbacks v. Brewers -220 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
10-02-22 | Cardinals +1.5 v. Panthers | Top | 26-16 | Win | 100 | 59 h 47 m | Show |
10-02-22 | Marlins v. Brewers -160 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -160 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
10-02-22 | Chargers -5 v. Texans | Top | 34-24 | Win | 100 | 56 h 37 m | Show |
10-02-22 | Jaguars v. Eagles OVER 45.5 | Top | 21-29 | Win | 100 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
10-02-22 | Washington Commanders +3.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 10-25 | Loss | -122 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
10-01-22 | UAB -10 v. Rice | Top | 24-28 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 53 m | Show |
10-01-22 | NC State v. Clemson UNDER 45.5 | Top | 20-30 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 43 m | Show |
10-01-22 | Marlins v. Brewers -175 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -175 | 16 h 22 m | Show |
10-01-22 | Oklahoma State +2.5 v. Baylor | Top | 36-25 | Win | 100 | 52 h 31 m | Show |
10-01-22 | Texas State +22 v. James Madison | Top | 13-40 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 29 m | Show |
10-01-22 | Michigan v. Iowa +11 | Top | 27-14 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 1 m | Show |
10-01-22 | Temple v. Memphis -18 | Top | 3-24 | Win | 100 | 48 h 0 m | Show |
10-01-22 | Navy v. Air Force -14 | Top | 10-13 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 57 m | Show |