Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
07-04-21 | Cubs +111 v. Reds | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Cincinnati Reds. Despite a higher-than-expected ERA of 3.98 and having allowed a league-high 20 home runs, RHP Kyle Hendricks is leading the NL with 10 victories so far. Hendricks doesn't throw particularly hard but is an innings-eater who keeps hitters off-balance with his stuff. And he obviously gets the runs when he needs them. The Cubs' ace will get his 17th start this afternoon as he tries to prevent a three-game sweep at the hands of the Reds. In fact the Cubs come into tonight having lost eight in a row so it will be up to Hendricks -- to a large extent -- to stop the bleeding. Hendricks loves these daytime affairs as he is 31-20 (.608) with a 3.13 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 78 starts under the sun covering 466 innings (while Cincy is 47-67 in day games). Today will be his first start of the season vs. the Reds. The Cubs are 8-1 in Hendricks' last nine starts going back to May 16. And they're averaging 5.5 runs per game, while batting .258, when their opponent starts a lefty. Take Chicago. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|
|||||||
07-03-21 | Padres -150 v. Phillies | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -150 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the Philadelphia Phillies. While many starters begin to slow down when they get into their mid-30s, Padres veteran RHP Yu Darvish just keeps on going. Darvish is almost 35 and he's been in the league now for over 10 years but his stuff appears to be just as dominating as ever. After leading the league with eight wins in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, Darvish is already 7-2 with a 2.44 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in 16 starts covering 96 innings in 2021. His strikeout numbers have not diminished either as Darvish is punching out guys at a rate of 11 per nine innings (the same rate he had in 2020). Start number 17 comes against a Phillies team that Darvish has had success against. In four career starts vs. Philly, Darvish is 1-0 with a 1.42 ERA in just over 25 innings. And his ERA during the day is a half-run lower than it is at night (3.04 in 59 starts vs. 3.53 in 139 night starts). The Pads are 12-2 (+7 games on the moneyline) in Darvish's last 14 starts as a favorite. Take San Diego. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
07-02-21 | Giants -143 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 11-4 | Win | 100 | 17 h 48 m | Show |
At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Giants over Arizona. It's awfully difficult to make a case for the Diamondbacks, who are baseball's worst team. They did win, 5-3, yesterday against the Giants, but they've not won two in a row since May 10-11. And since May 11, they've gone 6-41. Southpaw Alex Wood will get the start for Gabe Kapler's Giants, and he is 6-3, with a 3.91 ERA and 1.16 WHIP this season. He's made one start already vs. Arizona (a 5-2 win), and he held the D-Backs to 2 runs over 6 innings, while striking out 7, and only allowing 5 baserunners. Tonight, Wood will face off against Zac Gallen, who made one start earlier this season against the Giants (a 10-3 loss). The Diamondbacks have dropped each of Gallen's last five starts, and are 3-14 in the last 17 meetings vs. San Francisco. Even worse: Gallen's teams are 1-8 at home in his career in full (9+ innings) games with an over/under less than 9 runs. Take San Francisco. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
07-02-21 | Lightning v. Canadiens +116 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 51 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Montreal Canadiens over the Tampa Bay Lightning. After being blitzed, 5-1, in Game 1 of this series (and outshot 27-19), the Canadiens took the action to Tampa Bay in Game 2, and significantly outshot them, 43-23. Unfortunately, the scoreboard didn't reflect that higher level of play, and Montreal lost, 3-1. The good news is that Montreal generally bounces back off games where they outshot their opponent, but lost, as they're 12-7 this year in those situations. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay is 10-12 this year following a game where it won, but was outshot by its opponent. Of course, 10-12 doesn't sound awful, but to the extent Tampa was favored to win 21 of those 22 games, it is. Montreal is 35-20 after scoring less than 2 goals in its previous game, and 12-8 when playing with double-revenge. Take the underdog Canadiens tonight. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
07-01-21 | Hawks v. Bucks -1.5 | Top | 112-123 | Win | 100 | 17 h 37 m | Show |
At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks over the Atlanta Hawks. Tuesday's 110-88 loss by Milwaukee was doubly-painful, as their best player, Giannis Antetokounmpo, went down in a heap in the 3rd quarter. So, this will be the sternest test yet for Mike Budenholzer's Bucks, as they'll have to play tonight's critical Game 5 without the services of their superstar. But I believe they're up to the task. The good news for Budenholzer is that they've had ample experience over the last few seasons to play games without their MVP. This year, Milwaukee went 6-5 without him in the lineup. Budenholzer -- a Gregg Popovich protege -- will emphasize ball movement, and player movement, and rely on his team's "corporate knowledge," system, and talent to win out. Atlanta is a horrible 48-88-2 ATS vs. rested opponents off a 20-point (or worse) defeat, including 0-13-1 ATS on the road when priced from -2.5 to +9 points vs. .540 (or better) foes. And NBA Playoff teams have cashed 67.8% over the last 31 seasons if they lost their previous game on the road by more than 21 points, and don't have an inferior record than their opponent. Take Milwaukee tonight. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
07-01-21 | Mets -161 v. Braves | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -161 | 15 h 15 m | Show |
At 7:20 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the Atlanta Braves. The Braves destroyed the Mets, 20-2, last night. How does New York respond? Well, for starters, the Mets will send the best pitcher on the planet to the mound. Looking at RH Jacob deGrom's 0.69 ERA in 13 starts, 0.53 WHIP and 11.1 K:BB ratio, you have to wonder how he ever lost two games. He'll go back out there tonight for start number 14 against a team which he has a career 1.88 ERA. Yes, that number is pretty high compared to what deGrom has done this season, but it's still pretty impressive when you consider the firepower that the Braves have had in their lineup in recent years. Even better: deGrom has yet to allow an earned run on the road this season (in 25 innings pitched), and his teams are 37-21 (+6.2 games on the moneyline) as a road favorite with him on the mound in his career. The Braves will go with young RH Ian Anderson tonight. The 23-year-old RH has put up some solid numbers in this -- his second season. But Anderson is still several notches below the level of deGrom as are almost all MLB starters. Even with the loss last night, the Mets are still 4-2 in the last six meetings in Atlanta and 3-0 in deGrom's last three vs. the Braves. Take New York. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|
|||||||
06-30-21 | Suns -102 v. Clippers | Top | 130-103 | Win | 100 | 18 h 41 m | Show |
At 9 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns over the Los Angeles Clippers. We played on the Clippers in Game 4, as they were a big road underdog, and down 2 games in the series. Los Angeles easily won by 14, as a 6.5-point underdog (covering the spread in Game 5 by 20.5 points). They're still down now (though only by one game), but the point spread is considerably shorter. That's enough reason for me to take the road team in this close-out Game 6. Indeed, road teams up 3-games-to-2 have historically done very well in Game 6, as they're 66-40 ATS, including 32-13 ATS off an ATS loss in Game 5. Moreover, .655 (or better) teams have gone 33-15 ATS off a playoff loss in which they failed to cover the spread by 20+ points, if they were not favored by more than 1 point in the current game. Finally, the Suns are 32-14 ATS on the road when rested, off a loss, and not getting more than three points. And they're 57-31-1 ATS off a point spread loss by more than 20 points, including a perfect 6-0 ATS in the playoffs. Take the Suns. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
06-29-21 | Giants +136 v. Dodgers | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 19 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Giants over the Los Angeles Dodgers. Yesterday, the Dodgers won their fourth in a row, with a 3-2 nail-biter over the Giants. The key to the game was that the Giants were 0-for-13 with runners in scoring position. That L.A. victory closed the gap to 2.5 games in the National League West division. Tonight, the mound opponents will be Walker Buehler for the Dodgers vs. Kevin Gausman for the Giants. Pitching match-ups don't get much better than this, as Gausman (8-1, 1.49 ERA) is having the best season for anyone not named deGrom, while Buehler ranks 15th with a 2.51 ERA. We'll take Gausman as an underdog, as the Giants are 20-13 as a dog this season (+13.3 games on the moneyline), including a perfect 5-0 when Gausman has been the starter. One of those underdog starts was here, in Chavez Ravine, back on May 30. The Giants were +155, and won 5-4, behind six shutout innings from Gausman. Buehler has also made one start here, at home vs. San Francisco this season, and the Giants won that game, 8-5, as a +171 underdog. Take the Giants. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
06-28-21 | Clippers +5.5 v. Suns | Top | 116-102 | Win | 100 | 16 h 38 m | Show |
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers over the Phoenix Suns. Phoenix leads this series three-games-to-one, even though it has been outscored 403-400 in the four games. Certainly, with just a little more good fortune, the Clippers could be tied, or even leading this series. We'll grab the points with Los Angeles, as teams down 3-games-to-1 that have actually outscored their opponent over the three previous games combined, have gone 14-7 ATS in the NBA playoffs since 1991. Even better: .600 (or better) underdogs of more than 5 points, off a loss, and down exactly two games in a playoff series, have gone 7-0 ATS away from home since 2015, and 22-7 ATS since 1993. The Clippers are 30-12 ATS away from home off a straight-up loss. Take LA + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
06-28-21 | Canadiens v. Lightning -195 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 15 h 40 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Lightning over the Montreal Canadiens. The Stanley Cup finals are set and one side of the match-up is no surprise. The Lightning defeated the Isles, 1-0, in Game 7, to earn the opportunity to defend their Cup crown (and try to become just the second team to repeat since the 1997-1998 season). The other side however is a pretty big surprise. The Canadiens were as high as 50-1 underdogs (at William Hill) to win the Stanley Cup prior to the start of the playoffs, but they beat three heavily favored teams -- including a very good Knights squad in the last round -- to get to this point. There is almost no way that the Bolts are going to take them for granted. You have two goalies with tons of Stanley Cup experience and it must be said that the Habs wouldn't be here without the play of Carey Price. Having said that, you still have to give a pretty big edge to the Bolts in that department as Andrei Vasilevskiy is considered the best net minder on the planet right now. Tampa is healthy and ready to begin its title defense. The Lightning are 20-3 after scoring less than two goals in their previous game. And the favorite is also 14-3 in the last 17 meetings of these two. Take the Bolts. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|
|||||||
06-28-21 | Angels v. Yankees -150 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -150 | 14 h 37 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Los Angeles Angels. The Angels snapped their five-game losing streak yesterday, with a 6-4 win over the Rays. But I look for their success to be short-lived, as they've had scant success vs. winning teams, as they're 60-97 (minus 23 games on the moneyline) their last 157. Michael King will get the start tonight for the Yankees, and he comes into this game off back-to-back starts won by the Yankees (against Kansas City and Toronto). We played on the Yankees in that 6-5 victory vs. KC, and will play on King again tonight. His mound opponent will be RHP Dylan Bundy, who has a 6.68 ERA this season, and a 7.50 ERA over his last three starts. He also is 2-6 in his career vs. New York, with a 6.46 ERA and 1.58 WHIP (including an 8.05 ERA and 1.63 WHIP at Yankee Stadium). Finally, when installed as an underdog, Bundy's teams have gone 24-46 (minus 14.7 games on the moneyline) in his career. Take New York. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
06-27-21 | Yankees -150 v. Red Sox | Top | 2-9 | Loss | -150 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Boston Red Sox. When the Yankees signed free agent RH pitcher Gerrit Cole at the end of 2019 to a record contract, they were hoping for some serious Cy Young/MVP type numbers. So far the New York brass and fans have not been disappointed. Cole has delivered in pinstripes and the Yankees are hoping he will continue to do so for years to come. Now if only the Yanks could add another ace or two to the rotation. In 15 starts this season, Cole is 8-3 with a 2.33 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, and league-leading 8.20 K:BB ratio. Cole is hoping for win #9 today against New York's biggest rival and, given his numbers against the Sox, he should get it. In six starts vs. Boston, Cole is 3-1 with a 3.16 ERA and 1.03 WHIP with 39 strikeouts and five walks in 35 innings. The Yankees are also 8-2 (+5 games on the moneyline) in Cole's last 10 starts as a road favorite of -125 to -175. And Cole's teams, in his career, are 33-10 in that price range on the road. Meanwhile, the Red Sox are a horrible 11-25 (minus 11.5 games on the moneyline) as a home underdog. Take New York. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|
|||||||
06-26-21 | A's +111 v. Giants | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 44 m | Show |
At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Oakland A's over the San Francisco Giants. Based on the way these two Bay Area rivals are playing, would anyone be surprised if they met in the World Series for the first time since Oakland swept the Giants four-games-to-none in 1989? Tonight's match-up features SF's southpaw, Alex Wood vs. righty Frankie Montas of the A's. We'll take the underdog A's tonight, as Oakland is 29-22 (+14 games on the moneyline) as a road underdog of +150 or less. And it's 11-2 this season on the road vs. lefty starters. Alex Wood has made three career starts vs. Oakland, but has had scant success, as he's 1-2 with a 7.04 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP. And Wood's ERA over his last four starts is a horrid 8.50, with a 1.61 WHIP. Take the underdog A's tonight. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
06-26-21 | Yankees +102 v. Red Sox | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
At 7:15 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Boston Red Sox. Jordan Montgomery is very quietly putting together a nice season for the Yankees and that's very much appreciated by a team that could use all the pitching help it can get. Of course it doesn't hurt that the 28-year-old Montgomery is a southpaw with plenty of experience against all of the Division opponents in the AL East. And that includes tonight's opponent as Montgomery is 1-0 with a 4.13 ERA in his six career starts covering 28 1/3 innings against the Red Sox. More important is the fact that Montgomery faced the Red Sox three times last season -- his last starts vs. Boston coming into tonight -- and the Yankees are 3-0 in those games. And in Montgomery's last six starts going back to May 21, the Yankees are 6-0 and they're a perfect 9-0 in Montgomery's last nine nighttime starts. Take New York. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|
|||||||
06-25-21 | Cubs v. Dodgers -165 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 16 h 16 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Chicago Cubs. With the season-ending injury to Dustin May, the Dodgers have called upon swing man Tony Gonsolin to start games for them. Last season, Gonsolin posted a 2.31 ERA in nine outings (eight starts) covering just under 47 innings and he finished fourth in the NL Rookie of the Year balloting. The 27-year-old RHP has been used essentially as an opener, not going more than 3 2/3 innings in any of his three starts this season so far. Start number four will come at home tonight where Gonsolin has a career 3-1 record and 2.08 ERA. That home number is more than a full run lower than Gonsolin's ERA away from Dodger Stadium (3.10). This will be Gonsolin's first career appearance vs. the Cubs. The Dodgers have won all three of Gonsolin's starts this season and they are 6-2 in his eight career starts at Dodger Stadium. RH Jake Arrieta will go for the Cubs who are 4-10 in Arrieta's last 14 starts as a road underdog. Take the Dodgers. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
06-25-21 | Hawks v. Bucks -7.5 | Top | 91-125 | Win | 100 | 15 h 42 m | Show |
At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over Atlanta. The #5-seeded Hawks are trying to win their 3rd straight NBA Playoff series without home court advantage -- something which rarely happens in the chalk-heavy NBA. Atlanta won Game 1 outright, 116-113, as an 8-point road favorite. But my money is against the Hawks duplicating that feat tonight. Indeed, NBA teams, seeded #5 or worse, off back to back playoff wins, are a poor 2-34 SU and 7-29 ATS away from home as an underdog of more than 7 points, including 0-8 ATS in the 2nd of back-to-back road games. That doesn't bode well for Atlanta tonight. Nor does the fact that Milwaukee is a reliable 28-3 SU and 23-8 ATS as a home favorite of 4 (or more) points off a straight-up loss, including 9-1 ATS vs. foes off back to back wins. The Bucks know that they need to win tonight's game, lest they be forced to win at least 2 of 3 games on Atlanta's home court (a venue where Atlanta is 22-4 SU its last 26). Take Milwaukee minus the points in this critical Game 2. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
06-25-21 | Islanders v. Lightning -161 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 13 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Lightning over the New York Islanders. In Game 5, the Lightning not only ran over the Isles 8-0, but they out-shot them 42-21 as well. They should have saved some of those shots for Game 6 in New York as the Bolts only put 24 shots on net Wednesday night. Although they led the game 2-0 more than halfway through, the Lightning couldn't seal the deal and they fell in overtime, 3-2. They will put all that behind them as the Bolts hit the reset button tonight and will have plenty of fans in the stands at home for what will be the last game of the season for one of these teams. The home team is 4-2 in this series and Tampa hopes that trend continues tonight at Amalie Arena. The Bolts thrive on these next-game revenge situations as they are 9-1 (+7 games on the moneyline) in their last 10 when revenging a one-goal loss to an opponent. They are also 5-0 in their last five immediately following an overtime loss while the Isles are just 5-6 in their last 11 following an OT victory. Take the Lightning. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|
|||||||
06-24-21 | Golden Knights -140 v. Canadiens | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -140 | 16 h 49 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Vegas Golden Knights over the Montreal Canadiens. The Habs did it again, taking a must-win Game 5 in hostile territory on Tuesday night -- but at this point that shouldn't surprise anyone. The Montreal win in Vegas puts the Canadiens one win away from one of the most improbable Cup Finals in their storied history. But if you're the Knights, this is no time to panic. They were here in Montreal just four days ago coming off a similar loss and they held the Habs to just 21 shots on goal en route to a 2-1 overtime victory. Another reason for the Knights to have confidence going into tonight is the fact that they tend to shine in these revenge situations. Vegas is 6-1 (+7 games on the moneyline) in its last seven games revenging a loss of four or more goals to an opponent. Even though Vegas lost on the scoreboard, 4-1, it actually outshot the Canadiens. And it's 9-1 this season off a loss, in which it outshot its opponent. Meanwhile the Canadiens are 8-10 (-4 games on the moneyline) in their last 18 coming off a road victory by three or more goals. They are also 5-10 in their last 15 after allowing one goal or less in their previous game. Take the Knights. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|
|||||||
06-24-21 | Red Sox +110 v. Rays | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over the Tampa Bay Rays. When Nick Pivetta came to Boston from Philadelphia in the latter half of last season, he wasted little time in showing the Red Sox what he could do in his new surroundings. In two 2020 starts, the 27-year-old RHP went 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA before the COVID-shortened campaign came to an end. Now it's a year later, and although Pivetta isn't putting up quite the lofty numbers he did in his short 2020 stint, he has still shown his new team that he can contribute. In 14 starts covering 74 1/3 innings, Pivetta is 6-3 with a 4.36 ERA and a strikeout rate of 10.4 per nine innings. His only previous start against the Rays was in his first start of this season on April 5 when Pivetta shut out Tampa over five innings, allowing just two hits while striking out four. That start was at Fenway and so this will be Pivetta's first-ever game action at Tropicana Field. Despite their loss on Wednesday night, the Red Sox are still 5-1 in the last six meetings with the Rays. Take Boston. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|
|||||||
06-24-21 | A's -143 v. Rangers | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
At 2:05 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Athletics over the Texas Rangers. Chris Bassitt had one of the best campaigns of any MLB starter last season, going 5-2 with a 2.29 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 11 starts covering 63 innings. The 32-year-old RH finished eighth in the AL Cy Young voting and those numbers clearly would have gotten him a nod to his first All-Star game -- if there had been one, however the 2020 Mid-summer Classic was cancelled. No problem if you're Bassitt -- just repeat the performance in 2021, which he seems to be doing. The ERA may be elevated over last season (3.40) but his WHIP is better (1.06) and Bassitt has a record of 7-2 and a 9.5 K rate so don't be surprised if you see him in Denver on July 13. Bassitt will go for win number eight in this afternoon affair against the Rangers. Bassitt would love nothing better than a repeat of the last time he faced Texas -- a 10-1 beatdown in 2020 in which he went six strong innings, allowing one run with eight strikeouts. The A's are 7-1 in Bassitt's last eight starts. Take Oakland. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|
|||||||
06-23-21 | Hawks v. Bucks -7 | Top | 116-113 | Loss | -110 | 38 h 53 m | Show |
At 8:35 pm, on Wednesday, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over Atlanta. Before the start of the season, I published my NBA futures selection, and predicted the Milwaukee Bucks (at 13-2 odds) would win the NBA title. But, for much of the season, it did not look like it would come to fruition, as the Bucks, frankly, underwhelmed. After finishing with the #1 margin of victory in each of 2019 (8.87), and 2020 (10.08), the Bucks took a major step back this season, and only outscored their opponents by 5.89 points per game. Still, that was good enough for #1 in the Eastern Conference, and #3, overall. Indeed, only the Utah Jazz (9.25) and Los Angeles Clippers (6.18) ranked ahead of the Bucks at the end of the regular season. Atlanta, meanwhile, was a distant ninth (2.32). It's true that the Bucks were unceremoniously bounced out of the playoffs the past two seasons, notwithstanding their #1 ranking in victory margin. The Toronto Raptors eliminated the Bucks in 2019, while Miami sent the Bucks packing last season. But a primary reason for Milwaukee's failures was its subpar play away from home. However, when playing in front of its home faithful, Milwaukee has actually maintained its strong regular season numbers in the playoffs. Including this season (and dating back to 2018), Milwaukee is 14-2 straight-up, and 11-5 ATS at home, and has covered the spread by an average of 5.47 ppg. This season, Milwaukee took 2 of the 3 meetings vs. Atlanta, including the only meeting here, in Milwaukee (129-115, on Jan. 24). The Hawks did defeat the Bucks, as a 5.5-point home underdog, in the most recent meeting (on April 25). But that's not necessarily a good thing as, in the NBA semi-finals or finals, revenge-minded teams have gone 13-0 ATS at home in the first game of a Playoff series, if they were not getting 4+ points. Moreover, Atlanta is a wallet-busting 46-76-1 ATS on the road if it upset its opponent in the previous meeting. Finally, the Hawks are a horrid 7-32 SU and 8-31 ATS on the road when priced from +4.5 to +9.5 points. Take the Bucks minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
06-23-21 | Red Sox v. Rays -137 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 14 h 28 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Boston Red Sox. The prospect that everyone wanted to see in a Major League uniform made his Tampa Bay debut last night. And 20-year-old IF Wander Franco did not disappoint, going two-for-four with three runs driven in, with his first Major League hit being a long ball in the 5th inning. Franco's heroics weren't enough to save the day as the Rays fell to the Red Sox in extra innings. Unfortunately, Franco couldn't go to the mound for his team last night which is what the Rays needed as their pitching let them down. They will turn to a veteran who is more than twice the age of their superstar rookie as LHP Rich Hill takes the mound tonight for the hometown Rays. Tampa is Hill's 10th MLB team and has been a huge breath of fresh air in his first season with the Rays, going 5-2 with a 3.64 ERA in 14 starts. Hill's teams are 11-3 (+8 games on the moneyline) in his last 14 starts vs. division opponents and the Rays are 5-0 in Hill's last five starts vs. AL East clubs. Take Tampa. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|
|||||||
06-23-21 | Royals v. Yankees -167 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Kansas City Royals. The pitching matchup in the Bronx tonight will feature righty Michael King for New York, and lefty Danny Duffy for the Royals. We'll take the homestanding Pinstripes, as Duffy hasn't had much success vs. New York in his career. He's made nine starts, and owns a nasty 5.23 ERA and 1.48 WHIP over 43 innings. Today, Duffy will be on a short leash, as he's making his first start since going on the Injured List with a strained left forearm. It's estimated that he will throw no more than 65 pitches. Meanwhile, King is starting to adjust to his newfound role as a starting pitcher in the Yankees' rotation. A sinkerballer, King has improved his command this season, which has lowered his flyball rate, as well as his ERA (7.76 last season; 4.08 in 2021). One advantage for King tonight is that (with the exception of Alberto Hanser), none of the Royals hitters have ever batted against him before. New York is 15-5 the last 20 meetings at home vs. Kansas City. Take the Yankees to blow out the Royals. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
06-23-21 | White Sox -160 v. Pirates | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
At 12:35 pm, our selection is on the Chicago White Sox over the Pittsburgh Pirates. Dylan Cease will get the start for the Pale Hose this afternoon, as Chicago will attempt to snap its 5-game losing streak. Cease has been brilliant this season in his daytime starts, as he has a 2.87 ERA over those six starts, with a 1.34 WHIP. And he's also been spotless in Interleague action this season (0.00 ERA; 0.66 WHIP). He'll match up against Pirates righty Chase de Jong, and Chicago has been installed as a mid-sized road favorite. That bodes well for Chicago today, as it's 53-19 (+25 games on the moneyline) its last 72 when priced from -125 to -175, while the Pirates are 20-46 (minus 16 games on the moneyline) when priced from +125 to +175. Even better for Chicago: de Jong's teams are 0-4 in his career starts when priced as an underdog of +150 (or more). Take Chicago. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie. |
|||||||
06-22-21 | Brewers -150 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 15 h 1 m | Show |
At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Arizona Diamondbacks. It's a rare feat for an MLB team to have three starters selected to the All Star team in the same season. But the Brewers could achieve that in less than a month with their "Big Three" of Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, and Freddy Peralta. Each one of them certainly has the numbers to warrant serious consideration to make the trip to Denver for the Mid-summer Classic. Meanwhile, the first place Brewers have more important things to worry about and those three starters are likely going to be the key to them staying atop the division. Peralta will get his 14th start tonight and it comes against the worst team -- statistically at least -- in the Majors so the 25-year-old RHP has an excellent chance to pick up his seventh win of the season (against two losses). Peralta has a 2.23 ERA, 0.87 WHIP and league-best 4.3 hit rate in his 75 innings of work. Despite their loss last night, the Brewers are still 17-6 in the last 23 meetings with Arizona. Take Milwaukee. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
06-22-21 | Giants v. Angels -125 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -125 | 15 h 59 m | Show |
At 9:35 pm, our selection is on the Anaheim Angels over San Francisco. Lefty Andrew Heaney has been strong of late, as he's given up just 5 runs over his last three starts, covering 18 innings (2.50 ERA). And he's struck out 20 batters (against just 20 baserunners) in those three games (1.11 WHIP). One of those games was against this Giants team. And Heaney dominated San Francisco on the road in that contest, as he gave up just 1 run in 6 1-3 innings, in an 8-1 Angels victory. The Angels are a super 178-134 (+35 games on the moneyline) in interleague games, and we'll back them tonight at home. Take the Angels. |
|||||||
06-22-21 | White Sox -170 v. Pirates | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -170 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Chicago White Sox over the Pittsburgh Pirates. The ChiSox will hand the ball to their big right-hander, Lucas Giolito, tonight, and they've won five of his last six starts. Giolito has a nice 3.86 ERA and 1.10 WHIP this season, but he's been at his best at night (2.97 ERA, 0.93 WHIP), and in Interleague starts (1.50 ERA, 1.00 WHIP). Giolito's mound opponent tonight will be southpaw Tyler Anderson, who has lost his last four decisions. His ERA on the season is 4.89, but it's 5.71 over his last three starts, and 5.36 at night. Even worse: Chicago dominates lefty starters, as it is 33-5 the past two seasons in games started by southpaws. Take the White Sox. |
|||||||
06-21-21 | Islanders v. Lightning -182 | Top | 0-8 | Win | 100 | 15 h 8 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Lightning over the New York Islanders. If the Lightning didn't realize they were in for a major fight when the Islanders became their opponent for this semi-finals series, they certainly realize it now. With their win on Saturday, the Isles tied up this series at two games apiece. However, I expect to see a different Tampa team tonight back at home -- one that plays with the urgency and power that it displayed in the last two games of the series vs. Carolina. Tampa knows it has the benefit of the best goaltender in the game today and the offense needs to force the play in the Islanders zone without worrying too much about what could happen behind the play. The Bolts thrive in these revenge situations. They are 8-1 (+6 games on the moneyline) in their last nine when revenging a one-goal loss to an opponent (and 59-22 off any loss). They are also 4-0 in their last four when in a situation in which they are tied in a playoff series. Take the Lightning. As always good luck...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
06-21-21 | Braves v. Mets -215 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 3 h 35 m | Show |
At 5:10 pm, in Game 1 of the Double-Header, our selection is on the New York Mets over the Atlanta Braves. Please only list the Mets' Jake deGrom, and not the Atlanta pitcher. We will have a play on the Mets regardless of who starts for Atlanta. The first place Mets must have been given a bit of a scare when the best pitcher on the planet was removed from his last start with shoulder soreness after only three innings. But the team and deGrom himself have since proclaimed that the 33-year-old RH with the incomprehensible numbers is ready to go this late afternoon in the first game of this double-header with the Braves. The fact is that the Mets bullpen is strong enough that even if deGrom has to be pulled early again, they will likely be able to get the job done if he leaves with a lead (like they did last time). How do you even put into words how dominating a 0.54 ERA with 111 strikeouts and eight walks and 26 hits allowed in 67 innings of work is in the Major Leagues? A seven inning game is just what the doctor ordered for deGrom at this point so this situation would appear to be perfect for him. The Mets are 5-0 in deGrom's last five starts vs. teams with a losing record. Take New York. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|
|||||||
06-20-21 | Golden Knights -174 v. Canadiens | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 27 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Vegas Golden Knights over the Montreal Canadiens. Despite out-shooting them on Friday night by a lopsided 45-27 margin, the Knights somehow fell again to the Canadiens to go down two-games-to-one in this semifinals series. That's back-to-back 3-2 losses to this Cinderella Montreal team which at this point has earned the respect of just about anyone following the NHL playoffs. It's pretty much do-or-die tonight for Vegas, which must try to win again in hostile territory before the series moves back to the Strip for Game 5. Look for the Knights to change up some of their lines tonight in an attempt to get to Carey Price, who so far has proven to be almost as impenetrable as a Knight's armor. The Knights are 9-2 (+9 games on the moneyline) in their last 11 coming off of a road loss while the Canadiens are 19-30 (-18 games on the moneyline) in their last 49 after two consecutive victories. The Knights are also 11-3 (+10 games on the moneyline) in their last 14 revenging a loss as a road favorite. Take Vegas. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|
|||||||
06-20-21 | Hawks v. 76ers UNDER 216.5 | Top | 103-96 | Win | 100 | 14 h 24 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Hawks and Philadelphia 76ers 'under' the total. We played on the 76ers and the 'under' in Game 6, and got the $$$ with each. For Game 7, we'll come right back with the 'under,' as each of the last three games in this series has been low-scoring. Game 4 went 'under' by 23.5 points; Game 5 by 9 points; and Game 6 by 20.5 points! One of the reasons, of course, is that after playing the same team for several games, the defenses understand fully the other team's offensive sets, and don't allow the shooters to get the best looks. So, it's no surprise that, for example, the 76ers have shot 43.4% over the last three games (compared to 55.2% over the first three games). Likewise, Atlanta's shooting percentage has dropped from 48.2% to 41.0%. This season, Philly ranked #2 in adjusted defensive efficiency, and has also allowed just 108.2 ppg. For the year, Atlanta's gone 'under' 65.5% of the time vs. the better defensive teams that allow less than 109.3 ppg. This will be another low-scoring game. Take the 'under.' Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
06-20-21 | Rays -152 v. Mariners | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -152 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Seattle Mariners. It's no surprise that the Rays drafted LHP Shane McClanahan with the 31st selection in the 2018 Amateur draft. After all, McClanahan was one of the top pitching prospects in the country and he had already been drafted three years earlier by the Mets in the 26th round. But the other reason this choice made so much sense is because McClanahan is a local product and played his college ball at the University of South Florida. Now 24, McClanahan has made it to the big show and it doesn't look like he'll be heading back to the Minors anytime soon. The young southpaw is 2-2 with 4.42 ERA in nine starts, but the numbers that really jump of the page at you are his 46 strikeouts with 13 walks (a 3.54 ratio) in 38 2/3 innings. This will be McClanahan's first start vs. the M's and we will find out if Seattle's pitcher-friendly park agrees with him. Sunshine agrees with the Rays lately as they are 21-7 (+17 games on the moneyline) in their last 28 day games. Take Tampa. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|
|||||||
06-20-21 | Cardinals +105 v. Braves | Top | 9-1 | Win | 105 | 3 h 30 m | Show |
At 2:10 pm, in Game 1 of the Double Header, our selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over the Atlanta Braves. Weather caused a postponement of the game between these two on Saturday and so they will do a day-night double-header (of the seven inning variety) in Atlanta. Perhaps it's appropriate that on Fathers' Day, the Cards send their elder statesman to the mound in the first game as RHP Adam Wainwright will get his 14th start of the season in the afternoon affair. The younger pitchers on this team probably look up to the almost-40-year-old as a bit of a father figure these days, but Wainwright can still bring it with the best of them as evidenced by his 3.95 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in just under 80 innings this season. He certainly shouldn't mind a start against the Braves today as Wainwright is 9-4 with a 3.63 ERA in 19 career games (14 starts) covering just over 94 innings against them. Also, Wainwright loves day games, as he has a 67-33 career record and 3.28 ERA in 149 games (118 starts) under the sun. He'll face the Braves Bryse Wilson this afternoon. Unfortunately for Atlanta, Wilson's not fared well at home this season, as he brings a 4.58 home ERA into this contest. Take the Cardinals. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|
|||||||
06-19-21 | Rays -134 v. Mariners | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -134 | 16 h 37 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over Seattle. The Rays will start southpaw Josh Fleming on Saturday night against RHP Logan Gilbert and the Mariners. This will be Fleming's sixth start of the season, and he has a nice 2.86 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in 2021. Tampa has been installed as a road favorite in this game, and the Rays are 17-6 when favored by -150 or less this season. And they're 65-34 (+26 games on the moneyline) vs. righties, and 37-21 (+11 games on the moneyline) as a road favorite of -150 or less. Take Tampa. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
06-19-21 | Brewers +100 v. Rockies | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 15 h 37 m | Show |
At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Colorado Rockies. The Rockies will start Austin Gomber tonight, and it will be his 3rd career start vs. Milwaukee. Unfortunately, his career ERA is 7.04 vs. the Brewers, which doesn't inspire confidence tonight. Meanwhile, the Brewers will hand the ball to RHP Adrian Houser, who has made one career start vs. Colorado, and he threw four scoreless innings, while striking out five, and allowing just one hit. Houser's last three starts have all been strong, as he's given up just 3 run over 16 innings (1.69 ERA). And Milwaukee won each of those games. Take the Brewers. |
|||||||
06-19-21 | Bucks v. Nets UNDER 215 | Top | 115-111 | Loss | -104 | 14 h 7 m | Show |
At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks and Brooklyn Nets to go 'under' the total. These two teams met on Thursday night for Game 6 in Milwaukee. Milwaukee was favored by 4.5 points, and the total was 220. The Brooklyn Nets entered that game with a 3-2 series lead, so it was an elimination game for the Bucks. But Milwaukee sprinted out to an 18-5 lead in the first quarter, and finished the quarter with a 26-19 lead. Brooklyn could never mount a comeback, and when the final gun sounded, the Bucks earned a 104-89 victory. The Bucks covered the 4.5-point number, and it went under the total by 27 points. The over/under line for this Game 7 is lower than it was for Game 6, but it's not low enough. And we'll look for another 'under' tonight. Indeed, seven of the nine meetings between these clubs have gone 'under' the number this season. Even better: Brooklyn has gone 17-7 'under' vs. winning teams, and 12-4 'under' in competitively-priced games with a point spread of 3 or less. Likewise, Milwaukee has gone 'under' 36-22-1 vs. winning teams, and 27-18 in games priced from +3 to -3. Take the Bucks and Nets to go 'under' the total. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
06-19-21 | White Sox +112 v. Astros | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
At 7:15 pm, our selection is on the Chicago White Sox over the Houston Astros. Last night, the White Sox dropped their second straight game (both to Houston), as they lost 2-1 to the Astros. But Houston started right-handed pitchers in each of Thursday and Friday's games. And Chicago is a pedestrian 25-23 vs. righties this season. But not against lefties, as Chicago is 18-4 this season, and was 15-0 last season (33-4 combined). Tonight, the Astros will hand the ball to southpaw Framber Valdez, who will make his fifth start of the season. He has a 1.42 ERA, and the Astros are 3-1 in his starts. But he will face a tough opponent tonight in White Sox righty Lance Lynn. Lynn has made 12 starts this season, and has a 7-2 record, and a 1.63 ERA. Take the underdog White Sox. |
|||||||
06-19-21 | A's v. Yankees -115 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 6 h 30 m | Show |
At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Oakland A's. Last night, something had to give, as Oakland brought a six-game win streak into the Bronx, while the Yankees were on a 3-game win streak. The A's were victorious, 5-3, so New York will look to bounce back on Saturday afternoon. The Pinstripes will hand the ball to RHP Domingo German, while Oakland will start Chris Bassitt. New York has been installed as a home favorite, which bodes well as it is 89-45 (+10 games on the moneyline) as a home favorite, priced at -110 (or higher). And New York is 17-6, in German's 23 home starts, including 8-1 in his nine home starts, when priced from -125 to -175. Take New York on Saturday. Good luck as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
06-18-21 | Rays -108 v. Mariners | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -108 | 17 h 53 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Seattle Mariners. RHP Michael Wacha broke into the Major Leagues with St. Louis at the tender age of 21 back in 2013. Wacha spent each of the next seven seasons with the Cards before being granted free agency in 2019 and signing with the Mets for the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. He signed with Tampa before this season and Wacha has been able to contribute to the first place Rays' success as both a starter and reliever so far. He will get his eighth start of the season tonight and it comes in a pitcher-friendly park which should suit Wacha well. Wacha's teams are 4-0 in his last four starts vs. AL West teams. Meanwhile, the M's will go with Japanese southpaw Yusei Kikuchi, who has had a pretty successful season so far with a 3.67 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in 12 starts. But despite solid numbers of late, Seattle is just 8-16 (-10 games on the moneyline) in Kikuchi's last 24 home starts as well as 10-23 (-14 games on the moneyline) in his last 33 night starts. Take the Rays. As always, good luck...Al McMordie |
|||||||
06-18-21 | Jazz -1.5 v. Clippers | Top | 119-131 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 47 m | Show |
At 10 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz over the Los Angeles Clippers. This series is emblematic of the injury woes that have been front-and-center for the NBA this Playoffs season. Los Angeles will be without Kawhi Leonard for the remainder of this series, while Utah has been playing without Mike Conley, but with a hobbled Donovan Mitchell (both Conley and Mitchell are officially listed as 'questionable' for this game). We'll take Utah to bounce back off its Game 5 loss, as it is 34-14 ATS when playing with revenge, if it was off a SU/ATS home loss. And road favorites have cashed 73% off back to back playoff losses since 2004. Take Utah. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
06-18-21 | Dodgers -184 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Arizona Diamondbacks. Pitching match-ups don't get much more one-sided than this, as Cy Young winner, Trevor Bauer, will face Caleb Smith. It's true that Bauer had his worst start since September 2019 six days ago when the Rangers crushed the Dodgers, 12-1. But I fully expect Bauer to bounce back tonight. He has a perfect 4-0 record, with a 1.99 ERA in division games this season, while Smith has a 5.19 ERA on the season (and a 9.00 ERA in division games). Throw in the facts that Arizona has dropped 14 straight games, and has also given up 4+ runs in 14 of its last 15 games, and you have all the ammunition to pull the trigger on the Dodgers tonight (given that Bauer's teams have won 10 straight when they've scored 4+ runs with him on the mound). Take Los Angeles. |
|||||||
06-18-21 | Brewers -186 v. Rockies | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -186 | 15 h 24 m | Show |
At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Colorado Rockies. The National League Central is probably the most entertaining Division in all of the Major Leagues. The non-play of the St. Louis Cardinals has opened things up in the Division and right now it looks like any one of four teams can wear the crown come September (all except Pittsburgh, which is already out of it). Milwaukee's success is due to its "big three" starters of Brandon Woodruff, Freddy Peralta, and Corbin Burnes. Those three just might be the best 1-2-3 top of the rotation in all of baseball right now (and the three that nobody wants to face in a short playoff series). It will be RH Burnes tonight in arguably the toughest place for starters in the League. But if there's anyone who can tame Coors Field, it just might be Burnes, who has a 2.27 ERA, 0.85 WHIP and 14.5 strikeout rate in 11 starts covering 63 1/3 innings. Despite their loss last night, the Brewers are 7-2 in their last nine road games vs. teams with a losing record. Take Milwaukee. |
|||||||
06-18-21 | Golden Knights -159 v. Canadiens | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -159 | 15 h 53 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Vegas Golden Knights over the Montreal Canadiens. The Canadiens surprised just about everyone by beating the heavily favored Knights on Wednesday in Vegas to even this series at 1-1. The Habs took a 2-0 lead in the first period of Game 2 and never looked back. It was not one of Marc-Andre Fleury's best nights as he allowed three goals on 16 shots through the first two periods before settling down finally in the third period. But by then it was too late. The good news is that the veteran net-minder almost always uses a bad performance like that as motivation for his next one, so look for Fleury to play like his old self tonight at the Bell Centre in Montreal. And the offense should pick it up tonight as well as the Knights are 9-2 in their last 11 after scoring less than three goals in their previous game. Finally, the Canadiens are 2-5 in their last seven coming off a one-goal road victory and 10-20 (minus 16 games on the moneyline) if they've won at least four of their previous five games. Take the Knights. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
06-18-21 | 76ers -3 v. Hawks | Top | 104-99 | Win | 100 | 14 h 28 m | Show |
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia 76ers minus the points over Atlanta. Philadelphia has had a great season, as it won 55 regular season games. But if it doesn't win its next two games, it will be on the golf course next week. We'll lay the small number on the road tonight, as NBA teams with a win percentage greater than .600, off back to back upset losses, have cashed 64.4% since 1991 when playing away from home, and not laying more than 4 points. Take Philly. |
|||||||
06-18-21 | 76ers v. Hawks UNDER 222 | Top | 104-99 | Win | 100 | 14 h 27 m | Show |
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia 76ers and Atlanta Hawks to go 'under' the total. The 76ers now face elimination after back to back upset losses to the Hawks. But teams tend to go 'under' after back to back upset playoff defeats, as they've gone 'under' in 52 of 82 games. And the Sixers have gone 'under' in 27 of 41 road games when installed as a favorite. Take the 'under.' |
|||||||
06-17-21 | Rays -163 v. Mariners | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -163 | 16 h 4 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Seattle Mariners. It is an unwritten rule of baseball that starting pitchers will regress once they get into their late 30s and beyond -- if they're lucky enough to stick around the league that long. But tell that to 41-year-old southpaw Rich Hill and you're likely to get a shrug in response. How many MLB starters would kill to have the following ERAs in eight consecutive seasons: 3.38, 1.55, 2.12, 3.32, 3.66, 2.45, 3.03, 3.38. That last number is from this season and Hill has a 5-2 record, 1.02 WHIP and 9.2 strikeout rate to go along with it, in 66 2/3 innings. Health has been the main issue for Hill over the years but he seems to have put those concerns behind him for now as he hasn't missed a start so far in this campaign. Here's an amazing statistic: Coming into tonight, Hill has fired blanks (given up zero runs) in five of his last eight starts. In 12 career appearances (five starts) vs. the Mariners, Hill is undefeated (4-0) with a 2.06 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in just over 39 innings. Take the Rays. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|
|||||||
06-17-21 | Reds v. Padres -167 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 15 h 35 m | Show |
At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the Cincinnati Reds. There's likely nothing better for an MLB starter who is entering his prime (ages 26-28) than going from a bad team to a very good team. Such is the case with RHP Joe Musgrove in the 2021 MLB season. Musgrove pitched for the Pirates in 2018-2020 and then was traded from Pittsburgh to San Diego as part of a three-team deal at the beginning of this year. How did he respond? Musgrove is not only having his best MLB season since coming into the league in 2016, but he has already thrown a complete-game no-hitter and the future would certainly appear to be bright as Musgrove is arbitration-eligible after 2021. Having pitched for the Pirates for three seasons, Musgrove has plenty of experience against the Reds. In six games vs. Cincy (five starts), Musgrove is 3-2 with a 4.11 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in just under 31 innings. Cincinnati will go with LHP Wade Miley and the Padres are 5-0 in their last five games vs. southpaw starters, while Miley's career marks vs. the Padres include a 1-6 record, and a 5.38 ERA. Take San Diego. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|
|||||||
06-17-21 | Nets v. Bucks -5.5 | Top | 89-104 | Win | 100 | 15 h 32 m | Show |
At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over Brooklyn. The Bucks fell apart on Tuesday and blew a 17-point lead to put them in a precarious spot. Milwaukee must win its next two games, or it will once again be labeled a post-season paper tiger. One thing Milwaukee can certainly hang its hat on is that it is an awesome 13-2 SU and 10-5 ATS at home over the last four post-seasons. Even better, over the last 31 years, home favorites of more than 4 points, that failed to cover their previous game by 7+ points, have cashed 69% in Playoff elimination games if they trailed in the series by exactly 1 game. Milwaukee has won all four home games this season vs. Brooklyn (3-1 ATS), and is 11-2 SU and 8-5 ATS its last 13 home games in this series. And it's 21-3 SU and 17-7 ATS as a home favorite of more than 3 points off an upset loss. Take the Bucks minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
06-16-21 | Clippers v. Jazz -2.5 | Top | 119-111 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 13 m | Show |
At 10 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over the Los Angeles Clippers. Utah's been terrific at home this season, as it's 35-6 SU, and has covered the point spread by an average of 4.07 ppg (compared to a negative mark (-1.10 ppg) on the road). Meanwhile, the Clippers have also performed better this season at its home at Staples Center than it has done on the road (a .136 differential). So, it's not exactly a surprise that the Jazz won both home games, while they lost both road games. The good news for Utah is that it's back home in Salt Lake City tonight. The Jazz are 59-36-2 ATS as a home favorite in the Playoffs, including 13-7-1 ATS off back to back losses. Meanwhile, the Clippers are an awful 67-115-4 ATS vs. .589 (or better) revenge-minded opponents, including 6-25-1 ATS if their foe lost the season's two previous meetings! Finally, when playing at home, and not laying 10+ points, the Jazz are 21-2 SU their last 23, and 20-3 ATS, including 11-0 SU/ATS when favored by less than 7 points. Take Utah minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
06-16-21 | Padres -175 v. Rockies | Top | 7-8 | Loss | -175 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
At 3:10 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the Colorado Rockies. Which version of Blake Snell will show up this afternoon for the Padres? Will it be the one who opened up the month of June with seven innings of one-hit ball with 10 strikeouts against a very good Mets team? Or will it be the one who lasted only four innings in his next start against that very same club? There's no question that Snell's first season in San Diego has been a bit of an enigma but the talent is clearly still there with the 28-year-old southpaw. Snell's 14th start will come in arguably the Major's toughest ballpark for pitchers but that hasn't been a problem for him in the past. In two career starts here at Coors Field, Snell is 1-0 with a 1.80 ERA with 16 strikeouts in 10 innings. Overall against the Rockies, Snell has completely dominated with a 2-0 record and 1.17 ERA in four starts covering 23 innings. Despite their loss here last night, the Padres are still 10-3 in the last 13 meetings with the Rockies. Take San Diego. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|
|||||||
06-16-21 | Reds v. Brewers -142 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -142 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Cincinnati Reds. Freddy Peralta will get the start for the Brew Crew this afternoon. And Milwaukee will look to salvage the third game of this 3-game set, as it lost the first two games to the Reds. But the good news for Milwaukee is that Peralta will be on the mound today. He has a 6-1 record, with a 2.32 ERA and an 0.83 WHIP. And opposing batters are hitting just .134 against him over 68 innings! The Brewers are 9-3 in his 12 starts, including a perfect 5-0 his last five outings. Even better: Milwaukee's 21-8 in its last 29 day games, and Peralta's home ERA is 1.45, with a 0.56 WHIP. Meanwhile, Tyler Mahle has a 5.90 ERA in his six daytime starts, compared to a 1.83 ERA in his seven nighttime contests. Take Milwaukee. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
06-15-21 | Phillies +165 v. Dodgers | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 46 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Phillies had their four-game win streak halted yesterday by Tony Gonsolin and the Dodgers, but I love Philly as a big underdog tonight. Julio Urias will take the mound for the World Champs. But Urias has not been overly effective here, at home, this season, as his ERA is 4.58, with a 1.21 WHIP. And in his career, the Dodgers are just 6-6 in his 12 home starts (minus 5 games on the moneyline), when priced as a favorite of -150 to -200. Urias' mound opponent will be RHP Zach Eflin. And Eflin's teams are 8-8 (but +5 games on the moneyline) as a road underdog, priced from +150 to +200. Take the Phillies. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
06-15-21 | Padres -220 v. Rockies | Top | 4-8 | Loss | -220 | 15 h 16 m | Show |
At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over Colorado. The Rockies snapped their four-game losing streak yesterday with a one-run win over the Padres. But I expect Colorado to resume its losing ways tonight, and especially as it will be facing Yu Darvish. The Japanese righty has a sensational 2.28 ERA and 0.91 WHIP this season, including 11 innings against the Rockies, in which he surrendered 0 earned runs, and struck out 12 Rockies batsmen. Darvish will be opposed by Colorado's Chi Chi Rodriguez (5.62 ERA, 1.41 WHIP). Unfortunately, the Rockies have lost six of Rodriguez' eight starts this season. And his career ERA vs. San Diego is 7.05 in four starts. Take San Diego. |
|||||||
06-15-21 | Bucks v. Nets +4.5 | Top | 108-114 | Win | 100 | 15 h 6 m | Show |
At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets + the points over Milwaukee. The Bucks leveled this series at 2 games apiece with a 107-96 upset win in Game 4. Even worse for Brooklyn: the Nets are down two stars, with G Kyrie Irving and G James Harden sidelined. But it would be a mistake to think they're devoid of talent -- especially with Kevin Durant on the court. And with the Nets being installed as a sizable home underdog for this pivotal Game 5, we'll grab the points with the wounded underdog. Indeed, .600 (or better) NBA underdogs of +2.5 (or more) points have cashed 75% since 1991 in the Playoffs if they were off a double-digit upset loss, and matched up against an opponent with a win percentage less than .700. Moreover, Milwaukee is a wallet-busting 12-22 ATS off a double-digit home upset win, while Brooklyn is a solid 42-28 ATS when playing with revenge from a road defeat, and 7-3 this season as a home underdog. Grab the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
06-15-21 | Reds v. Brewers -104 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -104 | 15 h 47 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Cincinnati Reds. With their big win last night over this Brewers club, the Cincinnati Reds are now two games over .500 and only four games out of first place in the NL Central. So just imagine what their record -- and placing -- would be if they were getting any kind of performance out of their #1 starter RHP Luis Castillo. For no apparent reason, Castillo has been awful so far. After winning 19 games with an ERA around 3.4 runs over the past two seasons, Castillo has completely lost it in 2021. In 13 starts covering 64 innings, Castillo has two wins to go with a league-leading nine losses and an ugly 6.47 ERA. Since nobody seems to know what's wrong with him, there's little reason to think Castillo can turn things around tonight. LH Brett Anderson goes in his 11th start for the Crew. Anderson's season is nothing to crow about (2-4 with a 4.99 ERA) but it's a heck of a lot better than Castillo's. Despite its loss last night, Milwaukee is 7-1 in its last eight home games. Take the Brewers. |
|||||||
06-15-21 | Islanders v. Lightning -195 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 15 h 43 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Lightning over the New York Islanders. The surprising Islanders keep on surprising their opponents. They took Game 1 of this series, 2-1, on Sunday afternoon and can now advance to the Stanley Cup Finals simply by winning all of their three home games in this series. Tonight is pretty much a 'must-win' for the Bolts who can ill-afford to go to Long Island down 2-0. The Lightning can take some comfort in the fact that the only times the Islanders beat the same team on the road in back-to-back games during the regular season was in Buffalo on February 15 and 16 and in New Jersey on March 14 and 15. It's a much taller order to do it against the defending Cup Champions before a full house in Tampa. And when the Bolt's offense is quieted in a game like it was on Sunday, they almost always come out firing in their next game as they are 30-5 (+22 games on the moneyline) in their last 35 after scoring one goal or less in their previous. Take Tampa Bay. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|
|||||||
06-14-21 | Jazz +5 v. Clippers | Top | 104-118 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 10 m | Show |
At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz + the points over Los Angeles. We played on the Clippers in Game 3, and got the $$$$ with an easy 132-106 blowout win. But off that 26-point loss, we'll take the Jazz to bounce back at Staples Center tonight. For technical support, consider that .714 (or better) teams have gone 32-10 ATS as underdogs off a loss by more than 21 points! Even better: the Clippers are an awful 67-115 ATS vs. revenge-minded foes with a .589 (or better) win percentage, including 11-27 ATS in the playoffs. Take Utah + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
06-14-21 | Diamondbacks v. Giants -200 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 17 h 51 m | Show |
At 9:45 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Giants over the Arizona Diamondbacks. How does a team score four total runs in a four game series and still manage to come away with a 2-2 split? That's what the Giants did this weekend in DC against the Nats and it's a testament to their pitching that they were able to accomplish that. The Giants' 3.19 team ERA is fourth-best in the Majors and it's the main reason they are the biggest surprise in the NL (maybe in all of baseball). Their offense has been pretty good too, even if it forgot to show up this past weekend. San Fran's 91 home runs ranks second in the NL to the Atlanta Braves and they could use a couple of those tonight against the worst pitching staff in the League (5.09 team ERA). LH Alex Wood brings his 5-3 record, 3.79 ERA and 1.16 WHIP to the home mound tonight and Wood has been pretty solid here this season (3-2 with a 3.94 ERA in five starts). Wood has faced the D-Backs 19 times (11 starts) and he is 5-4 with a 2.96 ERA in 73 innings against them. Take the Giants. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
06-14-21 | Orioles v. Indians -155 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 39 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Indians over the Baltimore Orioles. When last we saw these two teams play, the O's were putting up the most runs they've scored since 2015. That 18-5 Sunday afternoon drubbing in Baltimore probably still stings the players on Cleveland's ballclub and you can bet the Tribe is looking forward to getting some revenge in this four-game series at home. It won't be one of the Indians' aces to start things off tonight but rather 24-year-old rookie RHP Jean Carlos Mejia. Mejia's MLB career is off to a solid if not spectacular start as he is 1-1 with a 4.15 ERA in five games -- including two starts. One of those starts was in that same weekend series in Baltimore, but it wasn't the Sunday game and Mejia actually pitched very well, blanking the O's over three innings while allowing just two hits. A repeat of that performance coupled with some support from his offense should yield a Cleveland victory tonight. The O's are 7-15 in the last 22 meetings and 2-8 in the last 10 here in Cleveland. Take the Tribe. |
|||||||
06-14-21 | 76ers v. Hawks +3.5 | Top | 100-103 | Win | 100 | 15 h 41 m | Show |
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Hawks + the points over Philadelphia. After upsetting the #1-seeded 76ers in Game 1, 128-124, the Hawks suffered back-to-back blowout losses (118-102, 127-111). But off those two 16-point defeats, we'll grab the points with Atlanta in this critical Game 4. Indeed, NBA teams have cashed 62% at home in the Playoffs after back to back losses by more than 15 points. Moreover, Philadelphia is an awful 6-23-1 ATS on the road, when favored by 10 points or less, if the 76ers were off back to back wins, and owned a win percentage of .625 (or better). And Atlanta is 11-1 ATS as a home dog of +3 (or more) points off back to back losses by more than 15 points. Take the Hawks + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
06-14-21 | Blue Jays v. Red Sox -119 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 17 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over the Toronto Blue Jays. After they dropped 18 runs on Boston on Sunday, the Sox were hoping that the Blue Jays would just go away. But unfortunately for the Sox, this series still has one more game to be played tonight. RHP Nathan Eovaldi will take his 7-3 record and 4.11 ERA to the mound tonight for Boston. Going to the hill for the Blue Jays will be rookie RHP Alek Manoah. Manoah was Toronto's first round pick in 2019 and despite his fast rise to the Majors and young age (23), Manoah has not disappointed so far with a 1-0 record, 3.14 ERA, and 1.19 WHIP over his first three MLB starts covering 14 1/3 innings. This will be Manoah's first-ever start against the Red Sox, but on the other side Eovaldi has faced the Jays seven times including six starts with fairly mixed results. But one thing he does do pretty consistently is win games at Fenway Park. In 34 games (26 starts) here, Eovaldi has a record of 10-5. Also, Eovaldi's 0.4 HR rate this season is the best in baseball, which should serve him well against the homer-happy Blue Jays, who rank #1 this season in home runs (with 99). Take Boston. |
|||||||
06-13-21 | Suns v. Nuggets +3.5 | Top | 125-118 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 58 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets + the points over Phoenix. The Nuggets are down 3-games-to-none, but I wouldn't count them out of Game 4 -- especially because they're playing at home, and have been installed as an underdog. Indeed, home underdogs of less than 8 points, that trail in a 7-game series, three-games-to-none, have actually done quite well against the spread, with a 28-20-3 ATS record since 1991, including 8-1-1 ATS if our home underdog's win percentage was .625 (or better). Moreover, Denver has been terrific at home off a straight-up home loss, when it's owned a winning record, as it's 6-0-1 ATS its last seven (and 23-12-2 ATS its last 37). Meanwhile, Phoenix has covered just one of its last seven as road favorites vs. winning teams. Take Denver. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
06-13-21 | Nets v. Bucks UNDER 228.5 | Top | 96-107 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
At 3:05 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks and Brooklyn Nets 'under' the total. All three games of this series have sailed UNDER the total, including Game 3, which generated just 169 points (against an over/under line of 235). And that game went 'under' by a whopping 66 points. So, the oddsmakers have adjusted this Game 4 line but, by my math, it's not been adjusted enough. We'll take the 'under' this afternoon and note, for technical support, that NBA playoff games with O/U lines of 200 (or more) have gone 'under' the total 71% over the last 31 years if the previous game totaled 172 (or less) points. Even better: in competitively-priced games with point spreads of less than 4, Milwaukee has gone 'under' in 7 straight (and 42 of 72), while Brooklyn has also gone 'under' seven straight, and in 78 of 127. Take the 'under.' Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
06-13-21 | Padres -121 v. Mets | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 1 m | Show |
At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the New York Mets. After a pretty successful rookie season back in 2018 when he went 8-9 with a 4.08 ERA in 26 starts, LH Joey Lucchesi's career has been going pretty much downhill since. Lucchesi followed up 2018 with a 10-10 and 4.18 campaign in 2019, but the last two seasons have fallen apart for the now-28-year-old. In the 2020 shortened season, Lucchesi went 0-1 with 7.94 ERA in three games (two starts). And so far this season, he hasn't been much better, going 1-4 with a 5.79 ERA in nine games (six starts) covering 28 innings. Lucchesi faces his former San Diego team for only the second time this afternoon and he has a tall order when you consider the Padres' offense is much better now than at any time he played for them (and also because his hitters have to face a very good starter in San Diego's Chris Paddack). The Padres' 25-year-old RHP is looking for revenge today after losing to the Mets in his last start, 6-2, although he threw a quality start in that one. Take San Diego. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|
|||||||
06-12-21 | Jazz v. Clippers -4.5 | Top | 106-132 | Win | 100 | 15 h 20 m | Show |
At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers minus the points over the Utah Jazz. After dropping the first two games of this series, the Clippers cannot afford to go down three-games-to-none. Los Angeles was in a similar spot in its last series -- vs. Dallas -- and rebounded from a 2-0 deficit to win that series in seven games. While Utah is no doubt a much more difficult foe than the Mavericks, the Clippers will be able to draw inspiration from that Mavericks series, and I believe that will serve them well in this Game 3. One fact stands out about the Jazz: they are dominating at home this season, as they're 35-6 SU, 27-14 ATS, and covering the point spread by an average of 4.07 ppg. But they're actually failing to cover the spread by 0.35 ppg on the road! That doesn't bode well for Utah tonight. Nor does the fact that .610 (or better) NBA favorites of -3+ points, down 2-games-to-none in a playoff series, have covered 60% over the past 31 seasons. Finally, since Kawhi Leonard joined the Clippers, they're a solid 31-18 ATS as a favorite off a SU/ATS loss, including 7-1 ATS vs. .625 (or better) opponents. Take Los Angeles to blow out Utah tonight. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
06-12-21 | Cardinals +147 v. Cubs | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
At 7:15 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over the Chicago Cubs. How does a starting pitcher lead the league in walks with 37 in 54 2/3 innings -- an absurd walk rate of 6.1 -- and still log a winning record with a very nice 2.63 ERA in his 11 starts. The Cardinals likely don't know how RHP John Gant is doing it anymore than we do and they likely don't care too much as long as he can continue to be successful. Gant's somewhat mysterious season continues tonight as he gets his 12th start and it will come against his team's dvision rival, Chicago, at Wrigley Field. Here is the other strange thing about Gant. As solid as his overall ERA has been this year, it's completely off the charts when he pitches on the road. In six starts away from St. Louis, Gant is 2-1 with a sparkling 0.90 ERA in 30 innings. Moreover, in 13 previous games vs. the Cubs -- three starts -- Gant is 2-2 with a 2.28 ERA in just under 24 innings. Finally, despite their loss on Friday, the Cards are still 8-3 in the last 11 games here on the North Side. Take St. Louis. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
06-12-21 | Padres -125 v. Mets | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -125 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the New York Mets. It's hard to believe that a pitcher with a 2.33 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 6.85 K:BB ratio and no-hitter to his credit could be considered as having a hard-luck season. But that's pretty much how you would have to classify the Padres' Joe Musgrove. The reason for the hard-luck label is the 28-year-old's 4-5 record in 12 games (11 starts). Obviously, with the kind of numbers he has and the kind of team he has around him, Musgrove should have a much better record than the one he's currently sporting. He has revenge on his mind today, as in his last start, Musgrove and the Padres were shut out by the Mets, 4-0, on June 5 in his home ballpark. Musgrove hopes to do better in his first career start at pitcher-friendly Citi Field. Musgrove has actually been much more effective on the road this season. In six games (five starts) away from San Diego, Musgrove has logged a 1.76 ERA and 0.69 WHIP (compared to a 2.83 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in six starts at Petco Park). Take the Padres. |
|||||||
06-12-21 | Blue Jays +112 v. Red Sox | Top | 7-2 | Win | 112 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Boston Red Sox. Two starters who used to face off over in the National League East Division will do so again this afternoon -- but as members of AL East teams. Boston's Nick Pivetta and Toronto's Steven Matz came over from the Phillies and Mets, respectively, and they will go to the mound for their new teams in this critical game. You could certainly argue that Pivetta and his 6-1 record and 3.78 ERA has had the better season so far, and few would disagree with you. But despite his higher ERA (4.50), Matz has managed a winning record and has had to pitch his home games in what are basically minor league parks (Buffalo, Dunedin). And Toronto's two home ballparks this season rank (along with Coors Field) among the three highest in terms of projected runs scored. This is reflected in the veteran southpaw's poor home numbers (1-2 with a 5.76 ER and 1.92 WHIP in five starts) vs. his superior ones on the road (5-1 with a 3.69 ERA and 1.03 WHIP). Toronto is also 13-8 (+5 games on the moneyline) in its last 21 daytime games. Take the Blue Jays. |
|||||||
06-11-21 | Suns v. Nuggets -1.5 | Top | 116-102 | Loss | -106 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets over the Phoenix Suns. The Suns swept the first two games of this series to take a 2-0 lead. But those two games were in Phoenix, where the Suns have gone 31-10 SU, 27-14 ATS, and have covered the spread by an average of 4.02 ppg. On the road, Phoenix has been less successful, as it's failed to cover the spread by an average of 0.5 ppg. Denver, meanwhile, covers the spread at home by an average of 1.34 ppg. We'll take the Nuggets in this Game 3, as they've been terrific at home off back to back losses by more than 10 points, and especially when priced from +1.5 to -4.5 points, as they're 19-3 ATS their last 22. Even better: Denver lost the first two games 122-105 and 123-98. But NBA teams off back to back Playoff losses that gave up more than 120 points in each game, have cashed 64% since 1990. This is a virtual 'must-win' game for Mike Malone's men. Lay the small number. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
06-11-21 | Astros -152 v. Twins | Top | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Minnesota Twins. Bailey Ober will now get the start for Minnesota, and Ober has not impressed in his young career, thus far. He's made two starts this season, and has given up 5 runs in 8 innings (5.62 ERA), with a 1.37 WHIP. Ober will face the Astros, who upset the Twins in last year's playoffs. Houston will hand the ball to RHP Jose Urquidy, who also stumbled in his last start (six runs in 4 1/3 innings at Toronto). But Houston won each of Urquidy's five starts prior to that outing. And Urquidy's career ERA vs. Minnesota is 2.08, with a WHIP of 0.92. Even better: the Astros have scored 7, 8, and 8 runs in each of their last three games. And they're 32-8 on the road after scoring 7+ runs in each of their three previous games. Take the Astros. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
06-11-21 | Blue Jays v. Red Sox -124 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over the Toronto Blue Jays. Ross Stripling followed up an All Star season in 2018 with another solid campaign in 2019 (4-4 with a 3.47 ERA in 32 games including 15 starts). Despite that success, Stripling was still relegated to a part time role in the rotation for the Dodgers. Then in 2020 after struggling through the first few months, the Dodgers traded the 30-year-old right-hander to Toronto for players named later. Stripling has continued to struggle with the Jays, which is not surprising considering he's in the American League now and not pitching his home games in Dodger Stadium anymore. He'll have to face a very good offense in the Red Sox tonight and in four previous starts against them, Stripling has been knocked around pretty good, going 2-2 with a 5.00 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. Garrett Richards (4-4 with a 3.88 ERA in 65 innings) will get his 13th start for the Sox tonight, and he's been fairly consistent of late. In his last eight starts, he's allowed three earned runs (or less) in seven of them. Richards also excels in his nighttime starts, as his teams are 63-42 (+17 games on the moneyline) in his career (compared to 14-21, minus 13 games on the moneyline in daytime starts). These two pitchers actually faced off against each other last month, and Richards notched his 4th win of the season, in a 7-3 BoSox victory. Finally, the Red Sox are 15-6 (+8 games on the moneyline) in their last 21 games vs. Division opponents. Take Boston. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|
|||||||
06-10-21 | Clippers +3.5 v. Jazz | Top | 111-117 | Loss | -109 | 18 h 33 m | Show |
At 10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers + the points over Utah. The Jazz drew first blood in this series with a three-point win in Game 1. But off that loss, we'll step in and take the points with the underdog Clippers. It's true that the Jazz rolled to the best record in the league this year, and are 34-6 at home. But consider that #1 seeds are a poor 58-91 ATS as a favorite in the Playoffs when they lead in a series against a .600 (or better) opponent. Even better: the Clippers are 23-10 ATS on the road when playing with revenge, including 11-1 ATS if the game was competitively-priced with a point spread of 4 points or less. And Los Angeles is an awesome 39-14 ATS off exactly one loss. Take L.A. + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
06-10-21 | Blue Jays v. White Sox +104 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 104 | 15 h 29 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago White Sox over the Toronto Blue Jays. LHP Dallas Keuchel is proof that you can continue to have a productive career as an MLB pitcher after your years as a strikeout artist are over. Keuchel used to punch out close to a batter per inning but those days are behind him now and the 33-year-old southpaw is having to re-invent himself in his second season with the White Sox. So far, it appears to be working as Keuchel is 4-1 with a 4.25 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in 12 starts covering just under 66 innings. The good news for Keuchel tonight is that his record against the Blue Jays is unblemished. In six starts covering just under 38 innings, Keuchel is 4-0 vs. Toronto. The White Sox are also 6-1 (+5 games on the moneyline) in Keuchel's last seven starts. Korean southpaw Hyun Jin Ryu will start for the Blue Jays tonight and the Sox are 29-4 (+23 games on the moneyline) in their last 33 games vs. teams with a lefty starter. Take the White Sox. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|
|||||||
06-10-21 | Nets v. Bucks -3.5 | Top | 83-86 | Loss | -103 | 15 h 47 m | Show |
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over Brooklyn. The Bucks were embarrassed in Game 2, as they were blown out, 125-86, by Brooklyn. But that 39-point defeat sets up our play tonight, as .250 (or better) teams have gone 35-5 SU and 28-11-1 ATS at home off a blowout loss by 39+ points, if they were favored by more than 2 points in their current game (and a perfect 6-0 ATS if their win percentage was greater than .600). Moreover, Milwaukee is 44-17-1 ATS at home off back-to-back losses. Take Milwaukee minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
06-09-21 | Nuggets +6 v. Suns | Top | 98-123 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 40 m | Show |
At 9:30 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets + the points over the Phoenix Suns. The Nuggets dropped Game 1, 122-105, as a 6-point underdog. But Mike Malone's men have been exceptional in the Playoffs, when trailing in a series, as they're 10-5 SU and 12-2-1 ATS their last 15, including a perfect 7-0 ATS if they failed to cover the spread in their previous game. That bodes well for Denver tonight. As does the fact that .700 (or better) teams are a poor 35% ATS at home in the Playoffs since 1991 when not favored by 8+ points, if they won their previous game in the series by more than 11 points. Take Denver. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
06-09-21 | Indians v. Cardinals -121 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 15 h 21 m | Show |
At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over the Cleveland Indians. After an 18-5 drubbing at the hands of the Orioles of all teams on Sunday, Cleveland had a day off and then took out its frustration in St. Louis on the Cardinals last night. But that was a pitching mis-match with Shane Bieber going up against Carlos Martinez who might not be long for the rotation if he can't turn things around soon. Tonight it will be the ageless wonder -- RHP Adam Wainwright -- going for the Cards. Just shy of his 40th birthday, Wainwright can still go out and give his team six-plus quality innings and he certainly doesn't mind the occasional inter-league match-up. In 42 games vs. the AL (36 starts), Wainwright is 16-12 with a 3.73 ERA in 242 innings. In two previous games vs. the Tribe (one start), Wainwright is 1-0 with a 2.45 ERA with 12 Ks and three walks in 11 innings. Despite their win on Tuesday, the Indians are still 2-5 in their last seven inter-league road games. The Cards are 15-5 in their last 20 games as a favorite. Take St. Louis. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
06-09-21 | Bruins -130 v. Islanders | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -130 | 15 h 43 m | Show |
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Boston Bruins over the New York Islanders. Just like they did against the Pittsburgh Penguins, the Islanders have taken all the air out of the sails of their opponent with a huge Game 5 win on the road to take a 3-2 series lead. But even though the uniform colors of the Pens and Bruins may be very similar, there is reason to believe that the Isles will have a tougher time wrapping up the series tonight at home. For one thing, in the regular season, Boston only lost nine games in regulation on the road (Pittsburgh had lost 12), one of the lowest such numbers in the league. Second, Bruins goalie Tuukka Rask was not 100% for Game 5 and had a rare off-night (four goals on 16 shots) before being replaced by rookie Jeremy Swayman. With a day off to recover, Rask should be ready to go tonight and eager to show everyone -- especially his teammates that -- Monday was a fluke. To wit: Rask's career GAA vs. New York is 1.88. Finally, the Bruins are a perfect 8-0 in their last eight games following back-to-back losses. Take Boston. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|
|||||||
06-09-21 | Mets -136 v. Orioles | Top | 14-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 12 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the Baltimore Orioles. Don't look now, but some other team's lineup seems to have taken over that of the Baltimore Orioles in the last few days. All the O's hitters have done over the last two games is put up 28 runs on 37 hits in victories over the Indians and Mets. Tonight, the Mets stay in town for the second of this two-game inter-league set and the problem for the Orioles won't be their offense but the fact that a former Met is scheduled to go to the mound for them. Matt Harvey was all the rage for New York when he came up at age 23 almost 10 years ago. But injuries have completely derailed Harvey's career and he's now trying to resurrect it in Baltimore (but it's not going well). In contrast, a pitcher who HAS resurrected his career is Harvey's mound opponent tonight -- the Mets veteran RH Taijuan Walker. Walker is 4-2 in 11 starts, with a sparkling 2.17 ERA in 54 innings. Most importantly, Walker's teams are 10-1 (+9 games on the moneyline) in his last 11 starts as a favorite. Take the Mets. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|
|||||||
06-08-21 | Clippers v. Jazz -4 | Top | 109-112 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 4 m | Show |
At 10 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over the Los Angeles Clippers. Kawhi Leonard & Co. were extended to seven games by the Dallas Mavericks, while Utah had a much easier time of it vs. the Memphis Grizzlies. Unfortunately for the Clippers, teams off home SU/ATS wins in a Game 7 have covered just 35% since 1991 when they've played on the road in Game 1 of the following series, provided their opponent won its previous series in less than 7 games. That doesn't bode well for Los Angeles tonight. Nor does the fact that the Jazz have won the last five meetings here in Salt Lake City (4-1 ATS), and are 14-6 ATS in the last 20 meetings, overall. The Jazz were the #1 home point spread team in the league this season, as they covered the spread at home by 4.56 ppg. The Clippers, meanwhile, had a road point spread differential of just 0.11 this season. Utah's an awesome 33-4 SU and 25-12 ATS at home its last 37, while the Clippers are 1-11 SU and 2-10 ATS on the road in the playoffs after winning their two previous games. Take Utah. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
06-08-21 | Diamondbacks v. A's -196 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 16 h 31 m | Show |
At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Athletics over the Arizona Diamondbacks. Sometimes MLB pitchers don't hit their stride until they hit their 30s. Starters like Charlie Morton come to mind and so does tonight's starter for the A's, RHP Chris Bassitt. Through his age 29 season, Bassitt went 4-14 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.96 K:BB ratio. But since 2019 -- his age 30 season -- Bassitt is 20-9 with a 3.40 ERA and 276 strikeouts vs. 81 walks -- a 3.41 K:BB ratio. Bassitt goes for win number six on the season tonight against a Diamondbacks team that has not had success on the road this season. In 34 games away from the Desert, Arizona is 9-25 and it's 0-4 in the last four meetings with Oakland. And in those four games, the D-Backs have been out-scored by 25-12. Bassitt's ERA here at home is a full run better than it is on the road this season (2.97 vs. 3.98). Neither of these teams had games on Monday and that's a situation that Oakland should relish tonight, having gone 8-0 in its last eight games when playing with a day off. Take the A's. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|
|||||||
06-08-21 | Golden Knights v. Avalanche -138 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -138 | 15 h 9 m | Show |
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Colorado Avalanche over the Vegas Golden Knights. After the Avs took games one and two of this series by a combined score of 10-3, Knights fans had to wonder if a move to the Vegas Strip would result in a turnaround. And it did, as the Knights not only won games three and four to even this series up, but they pretty much dominated both of those contests in the process. Now that attendance at most of the U.S. arenas is near full capacity, the home ice is becoming a much more important factor it would appear. Which is why this series is likely to shift yet again tonight when it returns to the Ball Arena -- a place which has wreaked havoc on most visitors all season long (even when there was nobody attending the Avs home games). The Avalanche are an incredible 20-0-1 over their last 21 home games and 12-2 in their last 14 immediately following a loss by three or more goals. Meanwhile, the Knights are 11-16 (-14 games on the moneyline) in their last 27 coming off a win by more than three goals. Take the Avalanche. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|
|||||||
06-08-21 | Giants -133 v. Rangers | Top | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 58 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Giants over the Texas Rangers. The Giants lost a tough one on Sunday after going up 3-1 on the Cubs after two innings. The offense fired blanks after that and the Giants fell 4-3. Firing blanks is something that San Francisco's opponent tonight, the Texas Rangers, sure know something about. The normally potent Ranger offense is anything but lately. Over the last 30 days, Texas is last in the American League in batting average (.208), home runs (23), OPS (.613), and next to last in runs scored (90). At least some of that struggle is due to the fact that the Rangers play their home games in a new park that has turned out to be quite a pitcher's paradise. Those problems could continue tonight in Arlington against LHP Alex Wood, one of the latest reclamation projects of the Giants. In nine starts covering 51 2/3 innings, Wood is 5-3 with a 3.48 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. The Rangers are also a woeful 0-8 in their last eight inter-league games, while the Giants are 19-7 in the last 26 meetings. Take San Francisco. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|
|||||||
06-08-21 | Hawks v. 76ers -5 | Top | 102-118 | Win | 100 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia 76ers minus the points over Atlanta. The Hawks drew first blood on Sunday, with a 128-124 upset win over the Sixers. But off that defeat, we'll play on the 76ers in Game 2 tonight. Indeed, that 128 points was the most points the Sixers have given up in a loss, with Joel Embiid in the lineup, this season. The good news, however, is that NBA teams that give up 125+ points in an upset playoff defeat are a perfect 8-0 ATS the last four playoff seasons, and 67% ATS the past 31 years. Take Philadelphia to bounce back strong on Tuesday night. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
06-07-21 | Cubs v. Padres -119 | Top | 4-9 | Win | 100 | 18 h 59 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the Chicago Cubs. The Padres would probably prefer to bring 21-year-old former first round draft pick Ryan Weathers along slowly and perhaps use him more as a bullpen option at this point of his career. But a plethora of injuries to their pitching staff has meant that Weathers has moved into a more-or-less full-time role as a Padres starter. It would appear at this time that San Diego is going with a six-man rotation and the young RH is sure making a strong case that the Pads should continue to do that for the time being. In 12 games -- including seven starts -- Weathers is 2-2 with a 2.06 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in just over 39 innings. Both the Padres and Weathers get a chance for some revenge tonight as Weathers faced the Cubs six days ago and picked up his second loss (and the Cubs swept the Padres in that 3-game series). But those games were in Wrigley Field; tonight Weathers gets the Cubbies at home where he has a 1.93 ERA in six games (three starts). The Padres are also red-hot at home, going 15-4 in their last 19 here at Petco Park. And they're 82-80 (but +21 games on the moneyline) when playing with revenge from a 3-game series sweep. Take San Diego. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|
|||||||
06-07-21 | Islanders v. Bruins -185 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -185 | 14 h 27 m | Show |
At 6:35 pm, our selection is on the Boston Bruins over the New York Islanders. The Isles prevailed in their must-win game on Saturday and now the series swings back to Boston, knotted up at two games apiece. The final score on Saturday was 4-1, but this was really a one-goal game as New York scored a pair of empty-netters at the end. That's three extremely close games in a row, so although the Bruins look like a comfortable favorite tonight, they cannot make any mistakes. Tuukka Rask has been sensational in goal for Boston and he will need another stellar performance tonight if the Bruins are to go up 3-2. And the key stat for us tonight is that the Bruins are 13-1 their last 14 home games after scoring less than 2 goals in their previous game! Additionally, the hosts have had the edge between these two recently as the home team is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings and the Isles are just 1-4 in the last five here at TD Garden. The Isles are also just 12-16 (-8 games on the moneyline) in their last 28 coming off a home win by three or more goals. And the Bruins are 11-2 (+9 games on the moneyline) in their last 13 revenging a loss where the opponent scored four or more. Take Boston. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|
|||||||
06-06-21 | Avalanche +102 v. Golden Knights | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Colorado Avalanche over the Las Vegas Knights. Newsflash: The Avalanche have lost a post-season game. After sweeping the Blues in the first round and taking the first two over a strong Knights team, the Avs finally succumbed, 3-2 on the Vegas Strip on Friday. Vegas dominated the game, outshooting the Avs 43-20 which indicates that the score really shouldn't have been that close (Colorado actually held a 2-1 advantage five minutes into the 3rd period). This indicates that if the Avs can turn those shots-on-goal numbers around and/or compete at a much harder level (which coach Jared Bednar lamented was the REAL problem for Colorado in Game 3), they stand a good chance to head back to Denver with a commanding 3-1 series lead. The other good news for the Avs is that they tend to thrive in revenge situations. They are 13-2 (+10 games on the moneyline) in their last 15 (and 38-16 their last 54) revenging a same season loss vs. an opponent and they are 9-1 (+7 games on the moneyline) in their last 10 revenging a road loss. They are also 13-4 in their last 17 following a loss (6-1 in their last seven following a loss of one goal). Take Colorado. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|
|||||||
06-06-21 | Red Sox v. Yankees -138 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -138 | 14 h 33 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Boston Red Sox. Garrett Richards will toe the rubber for Boston this evening, and he's had ZERO success in his career vs. New York. In six starts vs. the Pinstripes, Richards is 0-5 (his teams are 0-6), with an ERA of 8.76, and a WHIP of 1.78. It doesn't get much uglier than that! In contrast, Domingo German has made five starts vs. Boston, and his teams are 4-1. Even better: at home, in his career, German's teams are 17-5, including a perfect 8-0 when priced from -125 to -175. And his teams have won 17 of his last 21 nighttime starts. Meanwhile, Richards teams are 3-17 on the road in his starts, when priced from +125 to +175. Take the Yankees to blow out Boston. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
06-06-21 | Mets v. Padres -133 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -133 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the New York Mets. Chris Paddack will get the start for the homestanding Padres this afternoon. At home, Paddack has a 2.37 ERA and 1.15 WHIP this season, and the Padres are 6-1 at home when favored by 150 or less with him on the mound. That bodes well for San Diego today. As does the fact that the Mets are a horrible 19-37 (minus 15 games on the moneyline) as a road underdog, priced at +150 or less, while Marcus Stroman's teams are 12-26 (minus 12 games on the moneyline) in his career, when priced as the underdog. Take San Diego. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
06-06-21 | Mavs v. Clippers UNDER 210.5 | Top | 111-126 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
At 3:35 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Los Angeles Clippers/Dallas Mavericks game. The last three games in this series have gone 'under' the total, and have done so by wide margins (32.5, 12.5 and 16 points). We played on the 'under' in Game 6, and that's the way we will look again in this Game 7. Indeed, eight of the last 10 meetings between these clubs have gone UNDER. And the Mavericks are now 23-6 UNDER their last 29 games when they've been installed as the underdog. Finally, NBA games have gone UNDER 72.5% if the season's previous three meetings went under, in the aggregate, by 59+ points. Take the UNDER. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
06-06-21 | Reds v. Cardinals -121 | Top | 8-7 | Loss | -121 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
At 2:15 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over Cincinnati. The Cards have dropped four straight games heading into this contest. They'll hand the ball to RHP John Gant, who comes into this game off back to back scoreless outings -- against two of baseball's best clubs. On June 1, Gant held the mighty Dodgers to 0 runs over six innings, in a 3-2 win. And back on May 26, he threw five scoreless innings at the White Sox, in a 4-0 victory. Gant and the Cardinals are back home for this one, and Cincy is a poor 26-49 (minus 23 games on the moneyline) on the road, when priced from +125 to -125. And the Reds are also 40-63 (minus 29 games on the moneyline) in daytime affairs. Take St. Louis. |
|||||||
06-06-21 | Tigers v. White Sox -210 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 36 m | Show |
At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago White Sox over Detroit. Nobody is going to pick the Tigers to win the World Series -- or even a Division Title -- anytime soon, but this club has played surprisingly well lately. With series against the Yankees, Brewers, and White Sox, Detroit has gone 5-3. Unfortunately, the Tigers face a very talented young starter in RH Dylan Cease this afternoon. Admittedly, Cease still walks too many batters -- although he's done slightly better in that category in 2021 -- but when he's on, he can be very good. The 25-year-old also has one of the strongest home/road biases in baseball this season. In six starts here at Guaranteed Rate Field, Cease is 2-0 with an amazing 1.99 ERA in just under 32 innings. But in five road starts, he is 1-2 with 6.26 ERA in 23 innings. He also had his best start this season against the Tigers. On April 29 in the second game of a double-header, Cease pitched a seven inning complete game shutout right here at home. Detroit is 7-24 in the last 31 meetings and 5-17 in the last 22 meetings here. Take the White Sox. |
|||||||
06-05-21 | Bucks v. Nets -4 | Top | 107-115 | Win | 100 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets minus the points over the Milwaukee Bucks. Our preseason pick to win this year's NBA championship was Milwaukee (at 13-2 odds), but it will be an uphill climb for the Bucks to do it, as they're seeded #3 in the Eastern conference. Tonight, Milwaukee will have to go into Brooklyn to face a very tough Nets team which boasts three offensive superstars in Kyrie Irving, Kevin Durant and James Harden. It's true that Milwaukee was impressive in its 4-game sweep over the Miami Heat. But NBA teams off 4-0 Sweeps have covered just 36% over the last 31 years in Game 1 of their next series if they weren't laying 7+ points, and their opponent was NOT off a series sweep. Even worse for Milwaukee: Brooklyn is playing tonight's game with revenge from back-to-back losses to the Bucks last month. And revenge-minded teams have gone 23-8 ATS (in the quarterfinal round, forward) at home in Game 1 of a series. Finally, Milwaukee's been horrific away from home off 4+ wins, when facing a revenge-minded, rested opponent, as it's covered just 25.8% ATS since 1990, including 0-9 ATS since March 31, 2019. Take Brooklyn minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
06-05-21 | Hurricanes v. Lightning -153 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Lightning over the Carolina Hurricanes. The Hurricanes have to be very disappointed that they couldn't win at least one of the first two games at home in Raleigh against the Lightning. But with their backs against the wall in Game 3 in Tampa, the 'Canes came through and scored in overtime to take a hard-fought 3-2 victory on Thursday. But if you're the Lightning, you have to feel pretty confident despite the loss. The Bolts out-shot the Canes, 37-27 and only the incredible play of Carolina goalie Petr Mrazek kept the Canes in the game. The Bolts don't want to go back to Raleigh with the series tied 2-2, with all of the momentum having swung Carolina's way. So look for them to come out more aggressive early on to try to establish that dominance on the ice -- and the scoreboard. The Bolts also know that despite Carolina's win on Thursday, the Hurricanes are still just 17-35 in the last 52 meetings overall and just 4-13 in their last 17 tries here at the Amalie Arena. Meanwhile, the Lightning are 57-22 off a loss. Take the Lightning. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|
|||||||
06-04-21 | Avalanche v. Golden Knights +104 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 104 | 15 h 58 m | Show |
At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Vegas Golden Knights over the Colorado Avalanche. Our preseason pick to win this year's Stanley Cup was Colorado (at 7-1 odds), and the Avalanche have done nothing yet to dispel our belief that they will eventually be crowned the champs. They've won their last 11 games, and also earned the Presidents' Trophy for garnering the most points in the regular season. But Vegas tied Colorado for points in the regular season (it lost on the tie-breaker), and actually outplayed the Avs in Game 2, though it lost in overtime, 3-2, on a power play goal by Mikko Rantenen. Indeed, the Golden Knights struck the goal post five times on shots that got by Philipp Grubauer (and outshot the Avs, 41-25), so they were enormously unlucky on Wednesday night. The good news for Vegas is that it will be back home at T-Mobile Arena on Friday, where it went 21-5-2 this season. Even better: Vegas is 48-26 (+19.4 games on the moneyline) off a road loss, and 63-40 when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season. Take the Golden Knights. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
06-04-21 | Clippers v. Mavs UNDER 216.5 | Top | 104-97 | Win | 100 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the under in the Dallas/Los Angeles game. The Clippers were upset by the Mavericks, 105-100, as a 7.5-point home favorite on Wednesday, which sets up this 'do-or-die' game for Tyronn Lue's men tonight. Los Angeles has now gone 'under' in 10 of its last 13 games off a straight-up loss, while Dallas is 17-11 'under' vs. opponents off a loss. Even better: these two teams come into tonight's game off two very low-scoring contests (105-100, 106-81) that went under the total by 32.5 and 12.5 points, respectively. And that sets up tonight's play, as competitively-priced playoff games, with point spreads of 3 (or less) points, have gone 'under' 60.9% since 1991, if the two teams also went under in their two previous games. We'll look for another low-scoring game tonight in Game 6. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
06-04-21 | Reds v. Cardinals -132 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -132 | 13 h 6 m | Show |
At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over the Cincinnati Reds. What has happened to Luis Castillo? Nobody seems to know for sure, but whatever it is, the Reds would like to fix it as soon as possible. Considered one of the top starters in the NL after back-to-back stellar seasons, the 28-year-old RH has seen his game fall apart so far in 2021. In 11 starts, Castillo is 1-8 with 7.22 ERA and 1.78 WHIP in just over 52 innings. Those are some truly ugly numbers. He'll try again tonight, but it will be against one of the better teams in the league in the 31-26 Cards. St. Louis' pitching injuries (Hudson, Mikolas, and now Flaherty) have opened the door for Korean LH Kwang Hyun Kim. In eight starts, Kim's record is just 1-3 but he has a nice 3.65 ERA in 37 innings. Kim probably can't wait to get started tonight. In three previous starts vs. the Reds, the 32-year-old southpaw is 3-0 with a sparkling 0.54 ERA (one run in 16 2/3 innings) and 0.78 WHIP. The Reds, meanwhile, are a wallet-busting 49-99 in the last 148 meetings here in St. Louis. Take the Cardinals. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|
|||||||
06-04-21 | Red Sox v. Yankees -109 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 21 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Boston Red Sox. We're two months into the baseball season, but the Yankees and Red Sox have yet to play a game against each other. All that changes tonight when Boston travels to the Bronx to face their rival. And the Red Sox have had little success vs. the Yankees of late, as they've lost their last 11 games here, at Yankee Stadium. We'll take New York tonight to extend that streak to 12 games, as they'll hand the ball to RHP Michael King. King has made two appearances in his career vs. the BoSox, and he's 1-0 with a 4.05 ERA. Even better: the Yankees are a dominant 58-22 (+21 games on the moneyline) at home if they lost their previous game. And they're 41-18 at home when priced as a favorite of -150 (or less). Take the Yankees. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
06-03-21 | Suns v. Lakers UNDER 207.5 | Top | 113-100 | Loss | -102 | 17 h 36 m | Show |
At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Phoenix/Los Angeles game. These two teams have played four of their five games in this 1st round series UNDER the total. And the last three have gone 'under' by wide margins (9.5, 17.5 and 7.0 points). That bodes well for another low-scoring game on Thursday, as NBA playoff games have gone 'under' 67% since 1991 after the three previous games went 'under' by at least 5.0 ppg. Take Game 6 'under.' Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
06-03-21 | Mets v. Padres -175 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 16 h 4 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the NY Mets. Yu Darvish will toe the rubber for San Diego tonight, and the Padres have won 10 of his 11 starts in 2021, including the last seven in a row. I look for this streak to remain intact tonight, as the Mets are a dreadful 8-25 as road underdogs, priced from +125 to +175. Even better: Darvish's teams are 16-1 at home vs. opponents with below average power that average 0.9 (or less) home runs per game (the Mets have hit just 43 HRs in 48 games). And his ERA in his seven nighttime starts this season is a microscopic 1.37. Take San Diego. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
06-03-21 | Cubs v. Giants -125 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 16 h 39 m | Show |
At 9:45 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Giants over the Chicago Cubs. At first blush, the Giants' Anthony DeSclafani's 4-2 record and 3.56 ERA in 11 starts are very solid. But the former Cincinnati Reds RHP's numbers are even more impressive when you consider that DeSclafani allowed 10 runs in 2 2/3 innings two starts ago to the Dodgers. In fact, the 31-year-old's last two starts have come against Los Angeles leading into this match-up with the Cubs. DeSclafani has faced the Cubs on 12 previous occasions from his time in the NL Central and he has a winning record (4-3) against them with a 3.91 ERA in 69 innings. DeSclafani now pitches for the Giants and has the benefit of a very pitcher-friendly home venue in Oracle Park. At 32-23, the Cubs have had a very successful campaign so far in 2021 but they are 2-6 in the last eight meetings here in San Francisco. The Giants are a reliable 14-5 (+12 games on the moneyline) in their last 19 games immediately following a loss. Take San Francisco. |
Register for an Account Now for Free Picks and More Special Offers!
Big Al McMordie ALL Sports Top Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
07-04-21 | Cubs +111 v. Reds | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
07-03-21 | Padres -150 v. Phillies | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -150 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
07-02-21 | Giants -143 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 11-4 | Win | 100 | 17 h 48 m | Show |
07-02-21 | Lightning v. Canadiens +116 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 51 m | Show |
07-01-21 | Hawks v. Bucks -1.5 | Top | 112-123 | Win | 100 | 17 h 37 m | Show |
07-01-21 | Mets -161 v. Braves | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -161 | 15 h 15 m | Show |
06-30-21 | Suns -102 v. Clippers | Top | 130-103 | Win | 100 | 18 h 41 m | Show |
06-29-21 | Giants +136 v. Dodgers | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 19 m | Show |
06-28-21 | Clippers +5.5 v. Suns | Top | 116-102 | Win | 100 | 16 h 38 m | Show |
06-28-21 | Canadiens v. Lightning -195 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 15 h 40 m | Show |
06-28-21 | Angels v. Yankees -150 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -150 | 14 h 37 m | Show |
06-27-21 | Yankees -150 v. Red Sox | Top | 2-9 | Loss | -150 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
06-26-21 | A's +111 v. Giants | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 44 m | Show |
06-26-21 | Yankees +102 v. Red Sox | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
06-25-21 | Cubs v. Dodgers -165 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 16 h 16 m | Show |
06-25-21 | Hawks v. Bucks -7.5 | Top | 91-125 | Win | 100 | 15 h 42 m | Show |
06-25-21 | Islanders v. Lightning -161 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 13 m | Show |
06-24-21 | Golden Knights -140 v. Canadiens | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -140 | 16 h 49 m | Show |
06-24-21 | Red Sox +110 v. Rays | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
06-24-21 | A's -143 v. Rangers | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
06-23-21 | Hawks v. Bucks -7 | Top | 116-113 | Loss | -110 | 38 h 53 m | Show |
06-23-21 | Red Sox v. Rays -137 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 14 h 28 m | Show |
06-23-21 | Royals v. Yankees -167 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
06-23-21 | White Sox -160 v. Pirates | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
06-22-21 | Brewers -150 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 15 h 1 m | Show |
06-22-21 | Giants v. Angels -125 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -125 | 15 h 59 m | Show |
06-22-21 | White Sox -170 v. Pirates | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -170 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
06-21-21 | Islanders v. Lightning -182 | Top | 0-8 | Win | 100 | 15 h 8 m | Show |
06-21-21 | Braves v. Mets -215 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 3 h 35 m | Show |
06-20-21 | Golden Knights -174 v. Canadiens | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 27 m | Show |
06-20-21 | Hawks v. 76ers UNDER 216.5 | Top | 103-96 | Win | 100 | 14 h 24 m | Show |
06-20-21 | Rays -152 v. Mariners | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -152 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
06-20-21 | Cardinals +105 v. Braves | Top | 9-1 | Win | 105 | 3 h 30 m | Show |
06-19-21 | Rays -134 v. Mariners | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -134 | 16 h 37 m | Show |
06-19-21 | Brewers +100 v. Rockies | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 15 h 37 m | Show |
06-19-21 | Bucks v. Nets UNDER 215 | Top | 115-111 | Loss | -104 | 14 h 7 m | Show |
06-19-21 | White Sox +112 v. Astros | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
06-19-21 | A's v. Yankees -115 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 6 h 30 m | Show |
06-18-21 | Rays -108 v. Mariners | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -108 | 17 h 53 m | Show |
06-18-21 | Jazz -1.5 v. Clippers | Top | 119-131 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 47 m | Show |
06-18-21 | Dodgers -184 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
06-18-21 | Brewers -186 v. Rockies | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -186 | 15 h 24 m | Show |
06-18-21 | Golden Knights -159 v. Canadiens | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -159 | 15 h 53 m | Show |
06-18-21 | 76ers -3 v. Hawks | Top | 104-99 | Win | 100 | 14 h 28 m | Show |
06-18-21 | 76ers v. Hawks UNDER 222 | Top | 104-99 | Win | 100 | 14 h 27 m | Show |
06-17-21 | Rays -163 v. Mariners | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -163 | 16 h 4 m | Show |
06-17-21 | Reds v. Padres -167 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 15 h 35 m | Show |
06-17-21 | Nets v. Bucks -5.5 | Top | 89-104 | Win | 100 | 15 h 32 m | Show |
06-16-21 | Clippers v. Jazz -2.5 | Top | 119-111 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 13 m | Show |
06-16-21 | Padres -175 v. Rockies | Top | 7-8 | Loss | -175 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
06-16-21 | Reds v. Brewers -142 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -142 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
06-15-21 | Phillies +165 v. Dodgers | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 46 m | Show |
06-15-21 | Padres -220 v. Rockies | Top | 4-8 | Loss | -220 | 15 h 16 m | Show |
06-15-21 | Bucks v. Nets +4.5 | Top | 108-114 | Win | 100 | 15 h 6 m | Show |
06-15-21 | Reds v. Brewers -104 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -104 | 15 h 47 m | Show |
06-15-21 | Islanders v. Lightning -195 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 15 h 43 m | Show |
06-14-21 | Jazz +5 v. Clippers | Top | 104-118 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 10 m | Show |
06-14-21 | Diamondbacks v. Giants -200 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 17 h 51 m | Show |
06-14-21 | Orioles v. Indians -155 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 39 m | Show |
06-14-21 | 76ers v. Hawks +3.5 | Top | 100-103 | Win | 100 | 15 h 41 m | Show |
06-14-21 | Blue Jays v. Red Sox -119 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 17 m | Show |
06-13-21 | Suns v. Nuggets +3.5 | Top | 125-118 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 58 m | Show |
06-13-21 | Nets v. Bucks UNDER 228.5 | Top | 96-107 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
06-13-21 | Padres -121 v. Mets | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 1 m | Show |
06-12-21 | Jazz v. Clippers -4.5 | Top | 106-132 | Win | 100 | 15 h 20 m | Show |
06-12-21 | Cardinals +147 v. Cubs | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
06-12-21 | Padres -125 v. Mets | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -125 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
06-12-21 | Blue Jays +112 v. Red Sox | Top | 7-2 | Win | 112 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
06-11-21 | Suns v. Nuggets -1.5 | Top | 116-102 | Loss | -106 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
06-11-21 | Astros -152 v. Twins | Top | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
06-11-21 | Blue Jays v. Red Sox -124 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
06-10-21 | Clippers +3.5 v. Jazz | Top | 111-117 | Loss | -109 | 18 h 33 m | Show |
06-10-21 | Blue Jays v. White Sox +104 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 104 | 15 h 29 m | Show |
06-10-21 | Nets v. Bucks -3.5 | Top | 83-86 | Loss | -103 | 15 h 47 m | Show |
06-09-21 | Nuggets +6 v. Suns | Top | 98-123 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 40 m | Show |
06-09-21 | Indians v. Cardinals -121 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 15 h 21 m | Show |
06-09-21 | Bruins -130 v. Islanders | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -130 | 15 h 43 m | Show |
06-09-21 | Mets -136 v. Orioles | Top | 14-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 12 m | Show |
06-08-21 | Clippers v. Jazz -4 | Top | 109-112 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 4 m | Show |
06-08-21 | Diamondbacks v. A's -196 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 16 h 31 m | Show |
06-08-21 | Golden Knights v. Avalanche -138 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -138 | 15 h 9 m | Show |
06-08-21 | Giants -133 v. Rangers | Top | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 58 m | Show |
06-08-21 | Hawks v. 76ers -5 | Top | 102-118 | Win | 100 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
06-07-21 | Cubs v. Padres -119 | Top | 4-9 | Win | 100 | 18 h 59 m | Show |
06-07-21 | Islanders v. Bruins -185 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -185 | 14 h 27 m | Show |
06-06-21 | Avalanche +102 v. Golden Knights | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
06-06-21 | Red Sox v. Yankees -138 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -138 | 14 h 33 m | Show |
06-06-21 | Mets v. Padres -133 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -133 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
06-06-21 | Mavs v. Clippers UNDER 210.5 | Top | 111-126 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
06-06-21 | Reds v. Cardinals -121 | Top | 8-7 | Loss | -121 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
06-06-21 | Tigers v. White Sox -210 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 36 m | Show |
06-05-21 | Bucks v. Nets -4 | Top | 107-115 | Win | 100 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
06-05-21 | Hurricanes v. Lightning -153 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
06-04-21 | Avalanche v. Golden Knights +104 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 104 | 15 h 58 m | Show |
06-04-21 | Clippers v. Mavs UNDER 216.5 | Top | 104-97 | Win | 100 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
06-04-21 | Reds v. Cardinals -132 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -132 | 13 h 6 m | Show |
06-04-21 | Red Sox v. Yankees -109 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 21 m | Show |
06-03-21 | Suns v. Lakers UNDER 207.5 | Top | 113-100 | Loss | -102 | 17 h 36 m | Show |
06-03-21 | Mets v. Padres -175 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 16 h 4 m | Show |
06-03-21 | Cubs v. Giants -125 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 16 h 39 m | Show |