Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-02-18 | Golden Knights v. Sharks -130 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 2 h 7 m | Show |
At 10:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the San Jose Sharks (18) versus the Vegas Golden Knights (17). THE SITUATION: Vegas (57-28-7) seized a 2-1 lead in this series with their 2-1 win in overtime in the third game of this series on Monday. This series stays in San Jose (50-29-10) for tonight’s Game Four. |
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05-02-18 | Jazz v. Rockets UNDER 207 | Top | 116-108 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 13 m | Show |
At 8:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Utah Jazz (507) and the Houston Rockets (508). THE SITUATION: Houston (70-18) won the opening game of this series on Sunday by a 110-96 score as an 11.5-point favorite. The Rockets dominated that game from the jump and held a 27-point lead at one point in the first-half while cruising to an easy victory. |
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05-01-18 | Pelicans +11.5 v. Warriors | Top | 116-121 | Win | 100 | 5 h 29 m | Show |
At 10:35 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the New Orleans Pelicans (709) plus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (710). THE SITUATION: Golden State (63-25) easily won the opening game of this series on Saturday with their 123-101 win over the Pelicans as a 7.5-point favorite. The Warriors are likely to get Stephen Curry back for Game Two tonight. |
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04-30-18 | Golden Knights v. Sharks -120 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -120 | 1 h 39 m | Show |
At 10:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the money-line on the San Jose Sharks (18) versus the Vegas Golden Knights (17). THE SITUATION: San Jose (50-28-10) evened this series at one game apiece on Saturday with their 4-3 win in double-overtime in Las Vegas. The Sharks return home with this series tied at one game apiece. |
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04-30-18 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks -135 | Top | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 1 h 4 m | Show |
At 9:40 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the money-line on the Arizona Diamondbacks (910) versus the Los Angeles Dodgers (909) listing both starting pitchers Zack Greinke and Ross Stripling. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (12-15) has lost five of the last six games after a 4-2 loss in San Francisco yesterday. They travel to Arizona (19-8) to face a Diamondbacks team that had won three straight before losing in Washington yesterday by a 3-1 score. |
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04-30-18 | 76ers v. Celtics OVER 205 | Top | 101-117 | Win | 100 | 2 h 21 m | Show |
At 8:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia 76ers (555) and the Boston Celtics (556). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (56-31) gets back to the court for the first time since last Tuesday when they eliminated Miami in five games with their 104-91 victory as a 10-point favorite. Boston (59-30) has a quick turnaround after defeating Milwaukee on Saturday in Game Seven of that series by a 112-96 score as a 5-point favorite. |
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04-29-18 | Yankees -106 v. Angels | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 4 h 39 m | Show |
At 8:07 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the New York Yankees (977) versus the Los Angeles Angels (978) listing both starting pitchers C.C. Sabathia and Tyler Skaggs. THE SITUATION: New York (17-9) has won eight straight games after their 11-1 win over the Angels yesterday. Los Angeles (16-11) has now dropped three straight games. |
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04-29-18 | Jets v. Predators OVER 5.5 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 1 h 11 m | Show |
At 7:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Winnipeg Jets (13) and the Nashville Predators (14). THE SITUATION: Winnipeg (57-21-11) seized home ice advantage in this series by stealing Game One of this series by a 4-1 score. Game Two will played again in Nashville. |
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04-29-18 | Penguins v. Capitals -119 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 4 h 38 m | Show |
At 3:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the Washington Capitals (12) versus the Pittsburgh Penguins (11). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (52-31-6) rallied from a 2-0 deficit in the 3rd period by scoring three times in a 4:49 minute span to steal Game One of this series by a 3-2 score on Thursday. The Penguins have the opportunity to return home up 2-0 in this series this afternoon. Evgeni Malkin has missed the last two games in this series and remains a game-time decision. |
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04-29-18 | Pacers v. Cavs UNDER 199 | Top | 101-105 | Loss | -102 | 3 h 53 m | Show |
At 1:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Indiana Pacers (705) and the Cleveland Cavaliers (706). THE SITUATION: Indiana (51-37) forced a climactic seventh game in this series on Friday when they destroyed the Cavaliers by a 121-87 score as a 1.5-point favorite. Game Seven returns to Cleveland (53-35). |
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04-28-18 | Pelicans v. Warriors OVER 226 | Top | 101-123 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 48 m | Show |
At 10:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New Orleans Pelicans (551) and the Golden State Warriors (552). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (52-34) reached the Western Conference Semifinals by sweeping Portland in four games after their 131-123 win last Saturday. Golden State (62-25) defeated San Antonio in five games with their 99-91 win over the Spurs on Tuesday. Stephen Curry took part in practice to prepare for this game but he is officially listed as questionable. |
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04-28-18 | Sharks v. Golden Knights UNDER 5.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -140 | 1 h 44 m | Show |
At 8:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Jose Sharks (89) and the Vegas Golden Knights (90). THE SITUATION: Vegas (56-27-7) blew out the Sharks in the opening game of this series by a 7-0 score on Thursday. San Jose will be without Evander Kane tonight after he was suspended for a cross-check to the face of Pierre-Edouard Bellemare. |
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04-28-18 | Bucks v. Celtics -4.5 | Top | 96-112 | Win | 100 | 3 h 33 m | Show |
At 8:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (702) minus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (701). THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (47-41) forced a climactic seventh game in this series with their 97-86 victory over the Celtics on Thursday as a 4.5-point favorite. Game Seven returns to Boston’s TD Garden. |
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04-27-18 | Cavs v. Pacers | Top | 87-121 | Win | 100 | 19 h 43 m | Show |
At 8:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Indiana Pacers (512) minus the points versus the Cleveland Cavaliers (511). THE SITUATION: Cleveland looks to close this series out tonight after winning Game Five of this series by a 98-95 score as a 6.5-point favorite on Wednesday. The Cavaliers have won three of the last four games in this series — all by 4 points or less — after losing Game One by 18 points. But it took a botched missed goaltending by LeBron James on Victor Oladipo combined with James nailing a game-winning 3-point shot at the buzzer to escape Cleveland with the 3-2 series lead. |
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04-26-18 | Sharks v. Golden Knights UNDER 5 | Top | 0-7 | Loss | -100 | 1 h 15 m | Show |
At 10:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Jose Sharks (81) and the Vegas Golden Knights (82). THE SITUATION: Both these teams come off 4-0 sweeps in the first-round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. San Jose (49-27-10) swept the Ducks after closing out that series last Wednesday with their 2-1 win in Anaheim. Vegas (55-27-7) proved that their regular season was no fluke by sweeping the Kings after defeating them last Tuesday by a 1-0 score. |
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04-26-18 | Celtics +4.5 v. Bucks | Top | 86-97 | Loss | -109 | 4 h 39 m | Show |
At 8:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (501) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (502). THE SITUATION: Boston (58-29) looks to close out this series tonight on the road in perhaps the last game ever to be played in the Bradley Center after taking a 3-2 lead in this series by a 92-87 score as a 4.5-point favorite. The Celtics got Marcus Smart back in that game and not only is one of the team’s best defensive players but he has been described as “kind of like the soul of our team” by fellow veteran Al Horford.” Milwaukee (46-41) returns home as the favorite looking to stave off elimination and force a decisive seventh game of this series. |
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04-26-18 | Celtics v. Bucks UNDER 201 | Top | 86-97 | Win | 100 | 3 h 8 m | Show |
At 8:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (501) and the Milwaukee Bucks (502). THE SITUATION: Boston (58-29) looks to close out this series tonight on the road in perhaps the last game ever to be played in the Bradley Center after taking a 3-2 lead in this series by a 92-87 score as a 4.5-point favorite. The Celtics got Marcus Smart back in that game and not only is one of the team’s best defensive players but he has been described as “kind of like the soul of our team” by fellow veteran Al Horford.” Milwaukee (46-41) returns home as the favorite looking to stave off elimination and force a decisive seventh game of this series. The Celtics and Bucks had played five straight and eight straight Overs respectively before Game Five finished below the Total that closed in the 202.5 range. |
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04-26-18 | Penguins v. Capitals UNDER 6 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 1 h 2 m | Show |
At 7:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Penguins (87) and the Washington Capitals (88). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (51-31-6) advanced to the second round of the Eastern Conference Playoffs by knocking off the Flyers in six games culminating in an 8-5 win in Philadelphia on Sunday. Washington (53-28-7) rallied from an 0-2 deficit by winning four straight games against the Blue Jackets by closing that series out in Columbus on Monday with a 6-3 win. These two teams have faced off in each of the last two postseasons with the Penguins winning both times en route to winning the Stanley Cup. |
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04-25-18 | Wolves +12 v. Rockets | Top | 104-122 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 47 m | Show |
At 9:35 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Minnesota Timberwolves (713) plus the points versus the Houston Rockets (714). Houston (68-18) was only leading by a 50-49 score at halftime on Monday in Game Four of this series — but they scored a historic 50 points in the 3rd quarter en route to their 119-100 win over the Timberwolves as a 6-point favorite. Most pundits declared this series over after that outburst of scoring. The Rockets nailed 9 of their 13 shots from behind the arc while making 60.9% of their shots in those decisive 12 minutes of play. But the problem for this Houston team is that they are likely to think this series is now over after that one good quarter. However, keep in mind that the Rockets made only 7 of their 30 attempts from behind the arc in those remaining three quarters for a meager 23.3% shooting clip. That is not a good sign for a team already susceptible to letdowns. Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 32 home games after a win by at least 15 points. The Rockets have also failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 home games after scoring at least 115 points in their last game. Furthermore, while the Houston forced 16 turnovers on Monday while committing just 6 themselves, they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after committing at least 10 fewer turnovers than their opponents in their last game. |
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04-25-18 | Maple Leafs v. Bruins UNDER 5.5 | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -114 | 3 h 35 m | Show |
At 7:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Toronto Maple Leafs (25) and the Boston Bruins (26). Toronto (52-29-5) forced a decisive seventh game in this series on Monday with their 3-1 victory at home over the Bruins. Expect Mike Babcock to instruct his team to play disciplined and controlled hockey in this climactic game since surrendering a goal or two to the Bruins on their home ice could be the recipe for this game quickly spiraling out of hand. As it is, the Under is 4-0-1 in the Maple Leafs last 5 games after a victory. The Under is also 2-0-2 in Toronto’s last 4 games after allowing two goals or less in their last contest. And in their last 8 games after a win by at least two goals against an Atlantic Division rival, they have then played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total. The Maple Leafs are getting great goaltending from their veteran Frederick Andersen who has stopped 74 of the 78 shots he has faced in the last two games of this series. But Andersen has been helped by his teammates blocking 45 shots in these last two games as they begin to appreciation the need for defense in desperation elimination game situations in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. |
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04-25-18 | Nationals v. Giants UNDER 7 | Top | 15-2 | Loss | -110 | 0 h 25 m | Show |
At 3:45 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Nationals (953) and the San Francisco Giants (954) listing both starting pitchers Max Scherzer and Jeff Samardzija. Washington (10-14) has lost four straight games after their 4-3 loss in Game Two of this series against the Giants. The Nationals are swinging cold bats right now as they are scoring only 3.3 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .211 batting average along with a .285 On-Base Percentage and a .589 OPS over that span. These cold bats have helped Washington play four straight Unders — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing their last two games Under the Total. The Nationals have not committed an error in the field in five straight games — and they have then played 39 of their last 63 games Under the Total after not committing an error in at least two straight games. Washington has also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing as a road favorite with double-revenge on their minds. They send out Scherzer who is 4-1 with a 1.36 ERA and a 0.76 WHIP in five starts this season. The right-hander was more effective on the road last year where he enjoyed a 1.82 ERA along with a 0.81 WHIP and .156 opponent’s batting average as compared to his 3.25 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and .200 opponent’s batting average when at home. Scherzer was also better in day games where he sported a 1.90 ERA, 0.77 WHIP and .140 opponent’s batting average as compared to his 2.72 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and .191 opponent’s batting average at night. Washington has seen the Under go a decisive 31-14-6 in their last 51 games on the road. The Nationals have also seen the Under go 5-1-1 in their last 7 games with Scherzer on the mound on the road. He should fare well against this San Fran team that has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The Under is also 15-5-1 in the Giants’ last 21 games against right-handed starting pitchers. |
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04-24-18 | Bucks v. Celtics -3 | Top | 87-92 | Win | 100 | 15 h 21 m | Show |
At 7:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (702) minus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (701). Boston (57-29) has lost the last two games of this series after losing in Milwaukee on Sunday by a 104-102 score as a 6-point underdog. The Celtics have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a loss on the road. Boston has also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games when playing with one day of rest. The Celtics need to tighten things up on defense after allowing the Bucks to make 52.1% of their shots after seeing them make 59.7% and 57% of their shots in Game Two and Three of this series. Boston has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after enduring an opponent’s field goal percentage of 47% or higher in three straight games. The Celtics have now played eight straight games that finished Over the Total. They have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after playing at least three straight Overs — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after playing at least four straight Overs. Now Boston returns home to TD Garden where they are 29-14 this season — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games on their home court. Additionally, the Celtics have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 22 games when avenging a loss where they allowed at least 100 points in their last game. Boston has also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games when avenging a loss on the road. |
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04-23-18 | Bruins -115 v. Maple Leafs | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -115 | 1 h 20 m | Show |
At 7:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the money-line on the Boston Bruins (17) versus the Toronto Maple Leafs (18). Boston (56-22-9) blew an opportunity to close this series out on Saturday in a 4-3 loss to the Maple Leafs on their home ice. Now the Bruins travel to Toronto with a 3-2 lead in this series with a second chance to win this series and advance to the Eastern Conference Semifinals. Boston almost rallied to tie the game and force overtime as they were ferocious in the 3rd period by putting 20 shots on the Maple Leafs’ goalie Frederick Andersen who stopped 19 of them to preserve his team’s lead. The Bruins outshot the Maple Leafs by a 20-5 margin in that 3rd period and I look for that momentum to carry over into this game. Boston has bounced-back to win 23 of their last 33 games after a loss. They also have won 10 of their last 15 games when avenging a one goal loss on the road — and they have also won 20 of their last 26 games after a one goal loss on their home ice. Additionally, the Bruins have won 16 of their last 26 games after allowing at least four goals in their last game. And in their last 33 games played with one day of rest, Boston has won 24 of these games. Goalie Tukka Rask struggled on Saturday as he was pulled after allowing four goals on thirteen shots. But Rask is a veteran with plenty of playoff experience including winning a Stanley Cup — so I expect him to rebound with a strong effort tonight. |
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04-22-18 | Predators v. Avalanche UNDER 6 | Top | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 2 h 16 m | Show |
At 7:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Nashville Predators (75) and the Colorado Avalanche (76). Nashville (55-20-4) scored in the third period on Friday to take a 1-0 lead over the Flyers with the opportunity to close out that series in five games — but they then allowed two goals to lose Game Five of this series by a 2-1 score. Expect another low-scoring game in Game Six. While the Predators have much more balance and depth on offense this season versus their team that reached the Stanley Cup Finals last year, this is a team that is very comfortable playing low-scoring games behind the best blue-line in the NHL along with a goaltender in Pekka Rinne who will likely win the Vezina Trophy this season. Nashville has played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a loss at home. The Predators have also played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a loss by just one goal — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games on the road Under the Total after a loss by just one goal to a Central Division rival. Furthermore, the Under is 8-2-1 in Nashville’s last 11 games against an opponent that did not score more than two goals in their last game. |
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04-22-18 | Celtics +6 v. Bucks | Top | 102-104 | Win | 100 | 1 h 46 m | Show |
At 1:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (501) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (502). Boston (57-28) saw their three-game winning streak snapped on Friday with their 116-92 loss in Milwaukee. The Celtics made only 40% of their shots in that game which was their worst shooting effort in their last four contests. But their effort on defense was even worse as they allowed the Bucks to make 57% of their shots which was on the heels of Milwaukee making 59.7% of their shots in Game Two of this series. These last two games have been the worst defensive performances for this team of the entire season for Brad Stevens’ team — so expect this group to come out and play very hard on the defensive end of the court this afternoon. As it is, Boston is 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games after a double-digit loss. Additionally, the Celtics have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a point spread setback. Boston has been a capable road warrior as they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court — and they have covered the point spread in 28 of their last 42 road games with the Total set in the 200 to 209.5 point range. Furthermore, Boston has covered the point spread in 17 of their last 21 games when avenging a loss where their opponent scored at least 100 points. And in their last 8 opportunities to avenge a double-digit loss to their opponent, the Celtics have covered the point spread all 8 times. |
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04-21-18 | Thunder v. Jazz UNDER 208.5 | Top | 102-115 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 30 m | Show |
At 10:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Oklahoma City Thunder (723) and the Utah Jazz (724). Utah (49-35) evened this series at one game apiece with their 102-95 upset win in Portland on Wednesday as a 3.5-point underdog. The Jazz return home for this first time since April 10th after playing three straight games on the road — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total after being on the road for at least the last seven days. Utah has also played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total after playing their last three games on the road. The Jazz have also played 12 of the last 16 games Under the Total when playing with two days of rest — and this includes them playing eight of their last nine games Under the Total when playing on their home court with two days of rest. Additionally, Utah has played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have played 12 of their last 17 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 200 to 209.5 point range. Furthermore, the Under is 20-8-1 in the Jazz’s last 29 games against fellow Northwest Division opponents. |
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04-21-18 | Devils v. Lightning UNDER 6 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 0 h 22 m | Show |
At 3:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Jersey Devils (65) and the Tampa Bay Lightning (66). Tampa Bay (57-24-3) has the opportunity to close out this series tonight after taking a 3-1 lead in this series on Wednesday with their 3-1 victory over the Devils. The Lightning are getting great play from their goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy who has rebounded from a second-half slump to post a 2.26 Goals-Against-Average along with a .937 save percentage in this series. The Tampa Bay Power Play Kill Unit has also stepped up to negate 15 of New Jersey’s 18 Power Play chances for a 83.3% clip which is much better than their 76.1% mark during the regular season. This has become a physical series which has slowed down the torrid scoring pace that defined the earlier games in this series. The Lightning have only scored five goals over these last two games after scoring five goals in both Game One and Game Two of this series. This should be another low-scoring affair — they have played 11 of their last 16 Game Fives in a playoff series Under the Total. Tampa Bay has also played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total when up 3-1 in a playoff series. And in their last 19 opportunities to close out a playoff series, the game finished Under the Total 12 times — and this includes them playing three of their last four games Under the Total in that situation. |
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04-20-18 | Cavs v. Pacers UNDER 209.5 | Top | 90-92 | Win | 100 | 4 h 11 m | Show |
At 7:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Cavaliers (711) and the Indiana Pacers (712). Cleveland (51-33) raced out to a 16-1 lead in the opening minutes of Game Two of this series on Wednesday — and they held on to win that game by a 100-97 score as an 8.5-point favorite. The Cavaliers have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. Cleveland has also played 11 of their last 15 games after a win on their home court where they failed to cover the point spread as a favorite. The Cavs shot 50.7% from the field while nailing 11 of their 28 (39.3%) shots from behind the arc — yet they scored 10 points below their 110.4 PPG season scoring average. Now this team goes back on the road where they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. The Over is also 4-0-1 in Cleveland’s last 5 games against teams with a winning record. |
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04-19-18 | Warriors v. Spurs UNDER 207 | Top | 110-97 | Push | 0 | 6 h 38 m | Show |
At 9:35 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (527) and the San Antonio Spurs (528). Golden State (60-24) seized a 2-0 lead in this series on Monday with their 116-101 win as an 8.5-point favorite. The Warriors made 52.6% of their shots in that game after making 54.3% of their shots in Game One of this series fueled by them nailing 15 of their 31 (48.4%) of their shots from behind the arc. Golden State is likely to get a visit from the Regression Gods tonight in regards to their shooting — especially with them playing on the road where they see their 3-point shooting drop to a 37.7% clip as compared to their 39.3% 3-point shooting mark for the season. The Warriors have played 16 of their last 24 games Under the Total after playing two straight games where they made at least 50% of their shots. The Under is also 19-7-1 in Golden State’s last 27 games after allowing at least 100 points in their last game. The Warriors have also played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing with two days of rest. Golden State won the opening game of this series by a 113-92 score — and they have then played 35 of their last 57 games Under the Total after winning their last two games by double-digits. Now the Warriors go back on the road where they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. |
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04-18-18 | Ducks v. Sharks OVER 5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -136 | 5 h 51 m | Show |
At 10:35 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Anaheim Ducks (63) and the San Jose Sharks (64). San Jose (48-27-10) has the opportunity to close this series out tonight after they took a commanding 3-0 lead with their 8-1 win on Monday in Game Three of this series. The Sharks have seen the Over go 12-3-2 in their last 17 games after a win. Additionally, the Over is 5-1-1 in San Jose’s last 7 games after a game where they scored at least 5 goals in their last game. The Sharks enjoyed eight Power Play opportunities in that game which was filled with Ducks’ committing penalties — and they scored on four of those Power Play chances. San Jose has then played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after getting ate last eight Power Play chances in their last game. Furthermore, the Over is 4-0-1 in the Sharks’ last 5 games after allowing no more than two goals in their last game — and the Over is also 9-1-1 in their last 11 games against an opponent that did not score more than two goals in their last contest. San Jose can close this series out at home where they have played 5 straight games Over the Total. |
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04-18-18 | Jazz +5 v. Thunder | Top | 102-95 | Win | 100 | 3 h 20 m | Show |
At 8:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Utah Jazz (519) plus the points versus the Oklahoma City Thunder (520). Oklahoma City (49-34) has won four straight games with their 116-108 win over Utah as a 4.5-point favorite on Sunday. The Thunder not only shot 48.2% from the field in that contest but they also converted 14 of their 29 (48.3%) of their shots from behind the arc. That is number that is due for regression — Oklahoma City makes only 35.1% of their 3-point shots when playing on their home court. The Thunder are likely to suffer a letdown tonight as they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a point spread win. And while Oklahoma City has scored at least 115 points in each of their last three games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 110 points in three straight games. The Thunder stays at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games. Additionally, Oklahoma City has failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games with the Total set in the 200 to 209.5 point range — and this includes them failing to cover the point spread in ten of these last thirteen situations when these games are played in OKC. Furthermore, the Thunder have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 18 games against fellow Northwest Division opponents. |
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04-17-18 | Pelicans v. Blazers -6 | Top | 111-102 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 40 m | Show |
At 10:35 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Portland Trail Blazers (710) minus the points versus the New Orleans Pelicans (709). Portland (49-34) has lost five of their last six games after losing the opening game of this series by a 97-95 score despite being a 5-point favorite. The Trail Blazers could not hit the side of a barn on Saturday as they went into halftime with just a 31.9% field goal percentage. They made only 3 of their 17 shots from behind the arc in the first half as well and entered the locker room trailing by a 45-36 score. Portland was much better in the second-half as they outscored the Pelicans by a 59-52 score but the first-half foibles were too much for them to overcome. Look to the Trail Blazers to play much better tonight as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread loss. Portland has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when playing with two days of rest. And while the Trail Blazers have played three straight games Under the Total, they have then covered the point spread in 13 of their last 15 home games after playing their last three games Under the Total. Portland should play much better on their home court tonight when considering that they are 19-6-5 ATS in their last 30 home games — and this includes them covering the point spread in five of their last seven home games again teams with a winning record on the road. Furthermore, the Trail Blazers have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games against teams with a winning record. |
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04-16-18 | Heat +7 v. 76ers | Top | 113-103 | Win | 100 | 2 h 23 m | Show |
At 8:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Miami Heat (701) plus the points versus the Philadelphia 76ers (702). Miami (44-39) looks to bounce-back from their blowout 130-103 loss to Philadelphia on Saturday in the opening game of this series. The Heat were 5.5-point underdogs in that game — and they have now lost four of their last five contests. But the Heat have rebounded to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a double-digit loss. Miami has also covered the point spread in 22 of their last 29 road games after a loss by at least 20 points. Additionally, the Heat are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing at least 125 points in their last contest. And while this team has failed to cover the point spread in six of their last eight games, they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after failing to cover the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. Expect Erik Spoelstra ready to have his team play much better tonight against a Sixers’ team that was on fire in the second-half from behind the arc. Miami is 17-6-3 ATS in their last 26 games against teams with a winning record. The Heat has been capable road warriors this season who have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games with the Toal set in the 210 to 219.5 point range. Miami is also 26-10-2 ATS in their last 38 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Furthermore, the Heat have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 19 road games as an underdog getting 6.5 to 12 points. |
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04-15-18 | Golden Knights v. Kings -140 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -140 | 3 h 57 m | Show |
At 10:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the Los Angeles Kings (26) versus the Vegas Golden Knights (25). Los Angeles (45-31-8) finds themselves in a near must-win situation as they are down 0-2 in this series after losing a heartbreaking 2-1 game in double-overtime on Friday. Don’t blame goalie Jonathan Quick for the challenge they now face as he owns a sparking 1.17 Goals-Against-Average with a .964 save percentage so far in this series. The Kings need to get more out of their core offensive players as Anze Kopitar, Dustin Brown and Drew Doughty have yet to register a point in this series. Getting Doughty back from his Game Two suspension will help immensely — and he looks to be joined by his blue-line pairing of Jake Muzzin who has missed the first two games in this series to an injury. Expect a strong effort from this veteran team tonight who have won 11 of their last 17 games when playing with revenge. The Kings have also won 10 of their last 13 games after failing to score more than two goals in their last game. Additionally, Los Angeles has won 8 of their last 11 games after a loss by just one goal. The Kings have also won a decisive 75 of their last 112 games at home after playing two straight games where no more than four combined goals were scored. Los Angeles returns home to the Staples Center where they have won 4 of their last 5 games. |
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04-15-18 | Jazz +4.5 v. Thunder | Top | 108-116 | Loss | -107 | 2 h 25 m | Show |
At 6:35 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Utah Jazz (513) plus the points versus the Oklahoma City Thunder (514). Utah (48-34) saw their six-game winning streak snapped on Wednesday with their 102-93 loss in Portland as a 2-point underdog. The Jazz allowed the Trail Blazers make 46.1% of their shots which was their worst defensive effort in their last four games. Utah has still held their last five opponents to just a 42.5% field goal percentage. The Jazz stay on the road where they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games away from home — and they have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Additionally, Utah has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 8 games in the Western Conference Quarterfinals, the Jazz have covered the point spread 6 times. |
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04-14-18 | Sharks v. Ducks -126 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -126 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
At 10:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Anaheim Ducks (64) versus the San Jose Sharks (63). Anaheim (45-26-13) finds themselves in desperate straits after losing the first game of this best-of-seven series on Thursday with their 3-0 loss to the Sharks. Look for the defending Western Conference Champions to respond with a strong effort tonight. Not only have the Ducks responded to a loss of at least three goals by winning a decisive 36 of their next 51 games but they have also won seven of their last eight games when that loss by three or more goals was on their home ice. Anaheim has been outstanding at home in the Honda Center where they were 26-10-5 during the regular season — and they are still a superb 14-2-2 in their last 18 games at home. Expect a better offensive effort from this team tonight as they have won 4 straight games after failing two score more than two goals in their last contest. In particular, the Ducks need to get more out of their top line that is anchored by Ryan Kesler — his group produced more penalty minutes than shots on net in Game One. Anaheim has now lost their last four games at home to the Sharks — but they have earned revenge in 16 of their last 20 games when avenging a loss to their opponent by at least two goals. |
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04-14-18 | Pelicans v. Blazers -5.5 | Top | 97-95 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
At 10:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Portland Trail Blazers (508) minus the points versus the New Orleans Pelicans (507). Portland (49-33) snapped their four-game losing streak on Wednesday with their 102-93 win over Utah as a 2-point favorite. The Trail Blazers should build off their momentum as they are 38-16-4 ATS in their last 58 games after a straight-up win — and they are 23-9-1 ATS in their last 33 games after scoring at least 100 points in their last game. Portland has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games when playing with two days of rest. They have been very tough at home where they are 20-6-1 ATS in their last 27 games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. And in their last 17 games against teams with a winning record, the Trail Blazers have covered the point spread 14 times. |
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04-14-18 | Spurs v. Warriors -8 | Top | 92-113 | Win | 100 | 4 h 23 m | Show |
At 3:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Golden State Warriors (502) minus the points versus the San Antonio Spurs (501). Golden State (58-24) limps into the playoffs having lost three of their last four games after a listless 119-79 loss in Utah on Tuesday as an 8.5-point favorite. With the team missing Stephen Curry indefinitely, some NBA insiders consider Oklahoma City or Utah an easier first round opponent than the defending NBA Champions. That is absurd. Maintaining focus and intensity has been the biggest issues for the reigning champions — but the beginning of the NBA Playoffs should be enough to inspire this team that remain the most talented overall team in the league with Kevin Durant, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green still in the mix. The Warriors have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 32 games in the opening round of the NBA Playoffs — and this includes covering the point spread in seven of their last nine games in Round One of the playoffs. Golden State shot only 34.9% from the field on Tuesday which was their worst offensive effort of the season. Expect a strong effort from this team as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a loss by at least 15 points — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a double-digit loss on the road. The Warriors will also be looking to avenge an 89-75 loss to the Spurs in San Antonio back on March 19th — and they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 33 games when avenging a loss on the road. to their opponents. |
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04-13-18 | Wild v. Jets OVER 5.5 | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 59 m | Show |
At 7:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Wild (53) and the Winnipeg Jets (54). Winnipeg (53-20-10) took Game One of this series on Wednesday with their 3-2 victory in a game where they scored two goals in the 3rd period to rally from a 2-1 deficit. The Jets entered that 3rd period with a 1-0 score before both teams found the back of the net two times. Expect the scoring to continue in this important game for the Wild that wants to avoid falling behind by an 0-2 deficit in this series. Winnipeg has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against opponents that did not score more than two goals in their last game. The Jets are scoring 3.9 Goals-Per-Game at home in the Bell MTS Place this season — and they are averaging 4.0 Goals-Per-Game over their last five contests. Winnipeg peppered the Wild’s goalie Devan Dubnyk with 40 shots on Wednesday. They remain undermanned with their depth at the blue-line with Toby Enstrom and Dmitry Kulikov out with injuries. The Jets have won six straight games — and this will be their fourth game on home ice. Winnipeg has played 14 of their last 20 games Over the Total after winning their last two games at home. The Jets have also played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total when playing their fourth game at home in a row. |
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04-12-18 | Maple Leafs v. Bruins UNDER 6 | Top | 1-5 | Push | 0 | 3 h 48 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Toronto Maple Leafs (11) and the Boston Bruins (12). Boston (50-20-9) is limping into the playoffs having lost four of their last five games after their 4-2 loss in Florida. The Bruins have played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total after allowing at least four goals in their last game. Boston has also played 6 straight home games Under the Total after a loss at home by at least two goals. The good news for this team is that they will be healthier for the playoffs with both Rick Nash and Sean Kuraly practicing with the team this week and listed as probable to play tonight after they were out for that recent losing stretch. With a core group of Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand and Zeno Chara, the Bruins still have the leadership team that led them to a Stanley Cup win in 2013. Expect this team to be prepared to grind out a lower scoring game in this opening salvo. Their offense is struggling as they are scoring only 2.4 Goals-Per-Game over their last five contests. Goalie Tuukka Rask has been solid this season with a 2.36 Goals-Against-Average and a .917 save percentage — but he has a very good resume in the playoffs which included raising the Cup as the starting goalie in that 2013 campaign. In 53 career starts in the playoffs, Rask has a 2.12 GAA along with a .928 save percentage. Rask also likes playing against the Maple Leafs as he enjoys a 2.14 GAA with a .925 save percentage in 25 career starts in the regular season against them. Moving forward, the Under is 18-6-3 in Boston’s last 27 games against fellow Atlantic Division opponents. The Under is 33-16-6 in the Bruins’ last 55 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 7 home games with the Total set at 6 or higher, Boston has played 5 of these games Under the Total. |
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04-11-18 | Flyers v. Penguins UNDER 6 | Top | 0-7 | Loss | -104 | 5 h 35 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Flyers (5) and the Pittsburgh Penguins (6). Philadelphia (42-26-14) enters the playoffs having won four of their last five games with their 5-0 shutout over the Rangers last Saturday. Head coach Dave Hakstol tipped his hand by starting Brian Elliott in goal for their last two games after he missed 25 games through April 3rd — so he has to be pleased with that shutout to end the regular season. Elliott only made five starts after the All-Star Break but he was outstanding with a 1.94 Goals-Against-Average and a .918 save percentage. The Flyers have a good core of young players — but after their dynamic top line featuring Sean Couturier and Claude Giroux, the scoring prowess of their forwards drops off considerably. Philadelphia has only seven players who registered at least 30 points during the regular season. Expect the Flyers to play with more caution on the road in this opening game of the playoffs. They have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home ice. The Under is also 5-1-1 in Philly’s last 7 games in the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals. |
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04-10-18 | Suns v. Mavs UNDER 209 | Top | 124-97 | Loss | -115 | 3 h 50 m | Show |
At 8:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (507) and the Dallas Mavericks (508). Phoenix (20-61) has lost two straight games after their 117-100 loss to Golden State on Sunday as a 12.5-point underdog. The Suns allowed the Warriors to make 52.2% of their shots which was their worst defensive effort in their last three games. Phoenix has then played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 straight games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home. Additionally, the Suns gave played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing at least 100 points in their last game. Now this team goes back on the road where they have played 5 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on their home court. And in their last 16 games against teams with a winning percentage below 40%, Phoenix has played 14 of these games Under the Total. |
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04-09-18 | Blazers +4.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 82-88 | Loss | -103 | 5 h 32 m | Show |
At 9:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Portland Trail Blazers (715) plus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (716). Portland (48-32) has lost three straight games with their 116-105 loss in San Antonio on Saturday. The Trail Blazers have should bounce-back with a strong effort as they remain motivated to hold on to the 3rd seed in the Western Conference playoff race. Portland has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a double-digit setback. Additionally, the Trail Blazers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. Portland has dropped four of their last six games with this three-game losing streak — but they usually play very well in the face of such a bad spell. The Trail Blazers have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after losing four or five of their last six games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after losing at least three straight games. Furthermore, Portland is 17-5-1 ATS in their last 23 games after allowing at least 100 points in their last game. Now this team stays on the road where they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 21 games against teams with a winning record overall, the Trail Blazers are 15-5-1 ATS. |
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04-09-18 | Thunder v. Heat +4.5 | Top | 115-93 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 31 m | Show |
At 7:35 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Miami Heat (708) plus the points versus the Oklahoma City Thunder (707). Oklahoma City (46-34) needs a victory tonight to clinch a spot in the Western Conference playoffs — but I expect this task to be much easier said than done for this group that continually underachieves relative to their talent. The Thunder enter this game feeling pretty good about themselves after their 108-102 upset win in Houston on Saturday as a 4-point underdog. We had the Under in that game with the Rockets playing without Eric Gordon and Ryan Anderson — and a letdown is likely from Oklahoma City with the pressure on to win this game with them just one-game up on Minnesota and Denver who are tied for 8th place in the Western Conference race. The Thunder have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after an upset win as a road underdog. Oklahoma City has also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a point spread victory. The Thunder have won two of their last three games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 26 games after winning two of their last three games. They have also played three straight Unders — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games on the road after playing at least thee straight games that finished Under the Total. Offensive efficiency remains an issue for this team as they have not shot better than 44% from the field in eight straight games. The Thunder are just 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 21 games as a road favorite, Oklahoma City has failed to cover the point spread in 14 times. |
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04-08-18 | Warriors -12 v. Suns | Top | 117-100 | Win | 100 | 3 h 22 m | Show |
At 9:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Golden State Warriors (513) minus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (514). Phoenix (20-60) has lost sixteen of their last seventeen games as well as twenty-six of their last twenty-eight games which is why they are a double-digit underdog even on their home court tonight. Usually taking that many points in the NBA is too good to pass up — but the smart play tonight is to swallow hard and lay the points with a motivated road favorite. As it is, the Suns have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games as an underdog getting at least 12.5 points. This is an injury riddled unit playing with a bunch of second and third-tier players as they try their best to look like they are not trying their best to earn the most ping-point balls for the upcoming NBA lottery for the top pick in the 2018 draft. Starters Tyson Chandler and Elfrid Payton have been out indefinitely with starters Devin Booker and TJ Warren missing the last 10 games and 9 games respectively. Defensive stalwart Alan Williams is also out. The followers players are listed as questionable for tonight: Josh Jackson, Marquese Chris, Troy Daniels. In their 122-103 loss at home to New Orleans on Friday, Jackson and Chris were in the starting lineup with Tyler Ulis, Dragon Bender and Daniel House. Feelin’ better about laying 12 or so points yet? This is not a team likely to respond with an inspiring effort after that loss as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a double-digit loss at home. Phoenix has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games on their home court — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. The Suns have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 home games with the number set in the 210 to 219.5 point range. And in their last 13 games against teams with a winning record, Phoenix has failed to cover the point spread in 10 times. |
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04-06-18 | Bulls v. Celtics -8 | Top | 104-111 | Loss | -108 | 2 h 2 m | Show |
At 7:35 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (510) minus the points versus the Chicago Bulls (509). Boston (53-25) will be playing their first game since getting the official news that they will be without Kyrie Irving for the entire NBA playoffs with his knee injury. So while Celtics are pretty much locked-in to at the 2nd seed for the Eastern Conference playoffs, head coach Brad Stevens will want his team to start building confidence and momentum with the group that will be enlisted to make this year’s playoff run. As it is, Boston will be looking to get back to playing good basketball after losing their second game in a row with their 96-78 loss in Toronto on Wednesday as a 7-point underdog. The Celtics shot only 33.3% from the field which was the worst offensive effort in their last 65 games going all the way back to November 16th against Golden State. Boston should bounce-back with a strong effort as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 32 games after a loss on the road. Additionally, the Celtics are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a double-digit loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread loss. Boston returns home where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games. The Celtics have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games against fellow Eastern Conference opponents. |
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04-05-18 | Warriors v. Pacers UNDER 210 | Top | 106-126 | Loss | -104 | 1 h 2 m | Show |
At 8:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (701) and the Indiana Pacers (702). Golden State (57-21) has won three straight games with their 111-107 upset victory at Oklahoma City on Tuesday as a 4.5-point underdog. The Warriors flexed their muscles on defense by holding the Thunder to just a 37.6% field goal percentage. This Golden State team is still playing without Stephen Curry but they do have their other Big Three players in Kevin Durant, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green back healthy and on the court. The results have been lower scoring games with the team seeming to emphasize defense as they prepare for the playoffs. They have held their last five opponents to just 103.6 PPG as compared to their 107 PPG they allow for the season. The Warriors are also scoring just 105.6 PPG over those last five games which is far below the 113.9 PPG scoring average for the year. Golden State has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 18 of their last 27 games Under the Total after a win on the road. Additionally, the Warriors have played 21 of their last 28 games Under the Total Under the Total after allowing at least 100 points in their last game. Now Golden State stays on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. The Warriors have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against fellow Eastern Conference opponents. They will be looking to avenge a 92-81 loss at home to the Pacers just back on March 27th — and they have played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a loss in the Oracle Center. |
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04-03-18 | Hawks v. Heat -12.5 | Top | 98-101 | Loss | -109 | 2 h 44 m | Show |
At 7:35 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Miami Heat (706) minus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (705). Miami (41-36) needs a win tonight to clinch their spot in the Eastern Conference playoffs after they blew their opportunity to accomplish that task on Saturday with their 110-109 loss in overtime to Brooklyn as an 8.5-point favorite. The Heat have then covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after an upset loss as a home favorite. Miami has also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games after a point spread loss. The Heat are also 11-3-3 ATS in their last 17 games after scoring at least 100 points in that game. Hassan Whiteside was very upset after that game with head coach Erik Spoelstra because he only played 20 minutes in that game (although he is returning from an injury so his conditioning is an issue). Whiteside was fined for his profanity-laden tirade but he was not suspended and will play tonight. Miami stays at home where they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games on their home court — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Additionally, the Heat are 4-1-2 ATS in their last 7 games against fellow Southeast Division opponents. Miami will not be taking this Hawks team lightly after losing to them by a 110-104 score in their last meeting back on December 18th — and they have covered the point spread in 34 of their last 53 games when avenging a same-season loss. |
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04-02-18 | Michigan +7 v. Villanova | Top | 62-79 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 18 m | Show |
At 9:20 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Michigan Wolverines (601) plus the points versus the Villanova Wildcats (602). I have joked that they may cancel the game on Monday since it seems as if Villanova has already been coronated as National Champion after easily winning what many dubbed the de-facto championship game against Kansas. If the Wildcats come close to going 13 of 26 from behind the arc against the Wolverines in the first-half like they did against the Jayhawks, then they will be crowned champion. Then again, if Maryland-Baltimore County goes 13 of 26 from downtown, they would likely defeat even this Villanova team. Successful handicapping over the long-term is about maintaining perspective — so here are some things to keep in mind. The Wildcats 3-point shooting quickly regressed back to their mean in the second-half as they made only 5 of their 14 (35.7%) shots from 3-point land. And while Kansas and Michigan hold their opponents to just a 33.3% and 33.0% shooting percentage from the 3-point line, this Wolverines team does a much better job in contesting these shots. Michigan (33-7) ranks 5th in the nation with their opponents taking only 29.8% of their shots from the field from downtown which is far lower than Kansas’ 39.1% 3-point attempt to field goal attempt ratio. The Jayhawks simply did not execute on defense in the opening moments of that game — and that combined with Villanova’s Omari Spellman exposing Kansas big man Udoka Azubuike out on the perimeter. It will be much harder to do that against Michigan who have already played three wars against a Purdue team that has a similar offensive profile as this Wildcats team. Mo Wagner is much more mobile than Azubuike which will help his defensive assignment against Spellman. So while Villanova will cover the point spread if they shoot 50% from 3-point land, there is simply plenty of reasons to conclude that was an outlier performance. Remember, while the Wildcats scored at a 1.34 Points-Per-Possession rate on Saturday, it remains Michigan who had the most explosive offensive effort in this tournament when they scored at a 1.38 PPP rate against Texas A&M in the Sweet 16. And if the Wolverines approach making 50% of their 3-point shots, they will most likely be cutting down the nets. The potential Villanova emotional letdown is compounded by playing an outstanding defensive team with the Wolverines now ranking 3rd in the nation in Adjusted Efficiency — and defense is more consistent than 3-point shooting from game-to-game. Michigan is an eye-popping 14-3-3 ATS in their last 19 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. They swept a Michigan State team that many had also coronated as the inevitable National Champion — and that Purdue team they played three times with a healthy Isaac Haas that I thought might have been the best team in the country. John Beilein’s complicated offense is very difficult to prepare for with a short turnaround in tournament action. And while the Wolverines have not been an underdog since the Big Ten Tournament when the oddsmakers expected the Spartans and Boilermakers to defeat them, they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games as an underdog. Furthermore, I have seen at least one advanced analytics projection site that project this to be a 2-point game based off the metrics since January between these two teams based on their numbers against Quadrant 1 and 2 opponents. We are certainly getting the value with the underdog tonight. |
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04-02-18 | Michigan v. Villanova UNDER 145.5 | Top | 62-79 | Win | 100 | 24 h 9 m | Show |
At 9:20 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Michigan Wolverines (601) and the Villanova (602). Villanova (35-4) made 13 of their 26 shots from behind the arc in the first-half on Saturday en route to their 95-79 win over Kansas. The memories of the Wildcats’ explosive first-half while making 55.4% of their shots and scoring 95 points against the Jayhawks will compel many bettors take expect another high scoring game and take the Over. The Wildcats 3-point shooting quickly regressed back to their mean in the second-half as they made only 5 of their 14 (35.7%) shots from 3-point land. And while Kansas and Michigan hold their opponents to just a 33.3% and 33.0% shooting percentage from the 3-point line, this Wolverines team does a much better job in contesting these shots. Michigan ranks 5th in the nation with their opponents taking only 29.8% of their shots from the field from downtown which is far lower than Kansas’ 39.1% 3-point attempt to field goal attempt ratio. The Jayhawks simply did not execute on defense in the opening moments of that game — and that combined with Villanova’s Omari Spellman exposing Kansas big man Udoka Azubuike out on the perimeter. It will be much harder to do that against Michigan who have already played three wars against a Purdue team that has a similar offensive profile as this Wildcats team. Mo Wagner is much more mobile than Azubuike which will help his defensive assignment against Spellman. So while Villanova will cover the point spread if they shoot 50% from 3-point land, there is simply plenty of reasons to conclude that was an outlier performance. I expect both teams to be nervy in this game given the pressure of the moment. Both of these teams also sacrifice offensive rebounding for getting back on defense — so the tempo of this game can quickly become a slower, half-court affair. The Wolverines only rebound 25.6% of their missed shots which is 270th in the nation. And while Villanova ranks 149th in the nation with a healthier 29.4% offensive rebound rate, that number dropped significantly to a 25.2% mark in Big East play. The Wildcats have covered all five of their games in the NCAA Tournament as the favorite — and they have played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total after covering at least three straight games as the favorite. Villanova has also played 7 of their last 14 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court with the number set in the 145 to 149.5 point range. Additionally, the Wildcats have played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total when playing with one day or less between games. And while the Wolverines hold their opponents to just 62.9 PPG, Villanova has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after 15 games into the season against teams that do not allow more than 64 PPG. |
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03-31-18 | Kansas +5 v. Villanova | Top | 79-95 | Loss | -104 | 26 h 17 m | Show |
At 8:49 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Kansas Jayhawks (813) plus the points versus the Villanova Wildcats (814). Villanova (34-4) has covered the point spread in all four games as the favorite so far in the NCAA Tournament after their 71-59 win over Texas Tech on Sunday as a 6-point favorite. But Red Raiders’ head coach Chris Beard may have discovered a flaw in the Wildcats’ offense as they host just 33.3% from the field while making only 4 of their 24 (16.7%) of their shots from behind the arc. Villanova head coach Jay Wright admitted as much this week — and Kansas’ Bill Self will certainly steal elements from that Texas Tech defensive plan. As it is, the Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after covering the point spread in at least three straight games as the favorite. Villanova may very well win this game but I am expecting a very close game between these two heavyweights. The Wildcats have some weaknesses which will make it difficult for them to cover a 5-point or so point spread against elite competition. They are too dependent on shooting 3s which account for 47.1% of their field goal attempts — and they will be facing a Jayhawks’ team that holds their opponents to making just 32.7% of their 3-point attempts. Villanova does not do much in generating possessions if their 3s are not falling. They only pulled down 25.2% of their missed shots in Big East play while only forcing turnovers in 17.5% of their Big East opponent’s possessions. The Wildcats do not get to the free throw line either as they own an anemic 29.8% free throw attempt to field goal attempt ratio with that ranking 281st in the nation. On defense, this Villanova team ranks 14th in the nation in Adjusted Efficiency at 94.6 — but that number was a much higher 105.7 in conference action. The Wildcats defense has struggled against playmaking guards — and Kansas has two of those. With their tallest rotational player being the 6’8 Omari Spellman and only going 6 or 7 deep in their rotation, this team has vulnerabilities. Furthermore, this basketball program has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games in the Semifinals in tournament action. |
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03-31-18 | Kansas v. Villanova UNDER 155 | Top | 79-95 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 3 m | Show |
At 8:49 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kansas Jayhawks (813) and the Villanova Wildcats (814). This is an interesting clash between two teams that love to attempt 3-point shots. Kansas (31-7) is attempting more 3-pointers than ever under Bill Self with 41.4% of their field goal attempts coming from behind the arc which is 80th in the nation. Jay Wright has been having his team take advantage of the 3-point shot for years now — this year’s Wildcats are attempting 47.1% of their shots from 3-point land which is 14th most in the nation. This importance on the 3-point shot extends to the defensive end of the court where both teams emphasize defending against these shots. The Jayhawks hold their opponents to just a 32.7% shooting mark from inside the arc while Villanova limits their opponents to just a 32.2% field goal percentage from 3-point land. I see these similar styles clashing to produce a lower scoring game between these two heavyweights that will be feeling the pressure of the Final Four. Kansas made only 43.5% of their shots on Sunday in their 85-81 win in overtime over Duke as a 3.5-point underdog. The Jayhawks have then played 18 of their last 26 road games Under the Total after a game where they scored at least 85 points. Kansas made 13 shots from 3-point land against the Blue Devils after making 10 shots from behind the arc in their previous game against Clemson — but they have then played 8 of their last 9 road games Under the Total after making at least 10 shots from behind the arc in each of their last two games. Additionally, while the Wildcats outscore their opponents by +16.4 PPG, the Jayhawks have played 23 of their last 34 games Under the Total after 15 games into the season against teams that outscore their opponents by at least +8.0 PPG. |
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03-31-18 | Loyola-Chicago v. Michigan -5 | Top | 57-69 | Win | 100 | 24 h 6 m | Show |
At 6:09 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Michigan Wolverines (812) minus the points versus the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers (811). Loyola-Chicago (32-5) pulled off their fourth straight upset victory in the NCAA Tournament with their 78-62 win over Kansas State last Saturday. The Ramblers were lights out from the field by making 57.4% of their shots which was tied for their best shooting performance in their last nine games. They also held the Wildcats to just a 34.8% field goal percentage which was their best defensive effort in their last four contests. While this Cinderella with Sister Jean has been a great story for the sports media, the bubble will likely burst in a big way for this team on Saturday under the pressure and focus all week of the Final Four. This is a team that is not used to this type of scrutiny and attention. They also have not played a team all season as skilled as these Wolverines. Even in getting to the Final Four, Loyola-Chicago has had a fortuitous draw. In their four wins over Miami (FL), Tennessee, Nevada and Kansas State, the highest-ranked team according to Ken Pomeroy’s metrics were the Volunteers at 13th in the nation. Their best non-conference opponent was Florida that currently ranks 20th in the nation by Pomeroy. For comparison’s sake, Michigan has played six games against teams that Pomeroy ranks in his Top-Nine: Michigan State (twice), Purdue (three times) and North Carolina. As it is, the Ramblers have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 22 games after an upset win by double-digits. And while they made 55.8% of their shots in their previous game against Nevada, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after making at least 55% of their shots in two straight contests. Furthermore, Loyola-Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games when playing with five or six days of rest. |
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03-30-18 | Pelicans +4.5 v. Cavs | Top | 102-107 | Loss | -111 | 4 h 41 m | Show |
At 8:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the New Orleans Pelicans (505) plus the point versus the Cleveland Cavaliers (506). Cleveland (45-30) has won six of their last seven games with their 118-115 upset win in Charlotte on March 28th. The Cavaliers have then failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after a win on the road. Cleveland has also failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after winning five or six of their last seven contests. This team will still likely be without Kevin Love who is still dealing with the concussion protocol from getting knocked in the head earlier this week. The Cavaliers return home where they are just 16-37-2 ATS in their last 55 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Furthermore, Cleveland has failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 31 home games when the favorite. Additionally, the Cavs have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 25 games against teams from the Western Conference, Cleveland has failed to cover the point spread in 18 times. This team will be looking to avenge a 123-101 loss to the Pelicans back on October 28th — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 37 games when playing with revenge from a loss where they allowed at least 110 points. |
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03-30-18 | Illinois-Chicago v. Northern Colorado OVER 157.5 | Top | 71-76 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 30 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Illinois-Chicago Flames (781) and the Northern Colorado Bears (782). Northern Colorado (25-12) reached the Championship Game of the College Insider Tournament on Wednesday with their 99-80 win over Sam Houston State as a 10.5-point favorite. The Bears made 59% of their shots in that game — they are torching the nets to close out the season by making 52.7% of their shots over their last five games. They are scoring 89.9 PPG on their home court this season while making 49.9% of their shots. Northern Colorado has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games on their home court Over the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, not only have the Bears played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after scoring 80 points in their last game but they have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after scoring at least 90 points in their last contest. Northern Colorado made 17 of their 30 (56.7%) shots from behind the arc on Wednesday — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after making at least 13 shots from behind the arc in their last contest. Furthermore, the Over is 10-2-1 in their last 13 games on their home court — and they have played 7 of their last 9 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. The Bears have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against teams outside the Big Sky Conference. |
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03-29-18 | Penn State v. Utah +4.5 | Top | 82-66 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Utah Utes (712) plus the points versus the Penn State Nittany Lions (711). Penn State (25-13) was on fire from behind the 3-point line on Tuesday as they nailed 11 of their 20 shots from downtown en route to their 75-60 blowout win over Mississippi State as a 2.5-point favorite. But such a strong effort might have set up the Nittany Lions for a letdown in this Championship Game — especially with them laying a handful of points. Penn State has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after a victory by at least 15 points. The Nittany Lions went into halftime with a 42-23 lead as those first 20 minutes of the game being the most important moments of that contest. However, Penn State has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after leading by at least 15 points at halftime of their last game. Additionally, the Nittany Lions have failed to cover the point spread in 33 of their last 55 games after making at least 50% of their shots from behind the arc in their last game — and this includes five of these last eight situations. Furthermore, Penn State has covered the point spread in three straight games as well as six of their last seven contests. But the Nittany Lions have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after covering the point spread in three straight contests. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 37 games after covering the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games including five of these last six situations. |
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03-28-18 | Mavs v. Lakers UNDER 216 | Top | 93-103 | Win | 100 | 5 h 23 m | Show |
At 10:35 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Mavericks (515) and the Los Angeles Lakers (516). Los Angeles (32-41) was eliminated from the Western Conference playoffs 112-106 loss in Detroit on Monday as a 4.5-point favorite. The Lakers have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least 100 points in their last game. Los Angeles is a bit of M*A*S*H unit right now with their leading scoring Brandon Ingram out along with Josh Hart and now Isaiah Thomas who has is dealing with a hip injury like Ingram. Now after playing their last four games on the road, the Lakers return home where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total. LA has also played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. Additionally, the Lakers have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. |
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03-28-18 | Illinois-Chicago v. Liberty -5 | Top | 67-51 | Loss | -102 | 2 h 22 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Liberty Flames (724) minus the points versus the Illinois-Chicago Flames (723). Illinois-Chicago (19-15) reached the Semifinals of the College Insider Tournament with their 83-81 upset win at Austin Peay last Wednesday as a 4-point underdog. The Flames nailed 10 of their 23 (43.5%) shots from 3-point land to help them pull the upset. That came on the heels of their 84-61 win over St. Francis-PA where they made 10 of 24 (41.7%) shots from 3-point land. Illinois-Chicago has then failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after making at least 10 shots from behind the arc in two straight games. They are only shooting 34.9% from 3-point land when on the road — so the Regression Gods may be making an appearance for this team tonight. Furthering that thought, while the Flames have scored at least 83 points in their last games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their 10 games after scoring at least 80 points in their last two contests. Additionally, while Illinois-Chicago has scored at least 75 points in their last four games, they have then failed to cover the point spread 9 of their last 12 games after scoring at least 75 points in three straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after scoring at least 75 points in four straight games. Now this team stays on the road where they are being outscored by -3.8 PPG. They were fortunate to see Austin Peay miss 14 of their 16 shots from behind the arc — but Liberty was 2nd in the Big South by making 38.8% of their 3-pointers this season. Illinois-Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 road games with the Total set in the 140 to 149.5 point range. Another concern for this team — made more worrisome when they are playing in hostile environment — is their looseness with the basketball as they ranked 312th in the nation by turning the ball over in 20.8% of their possessions. This is another area that Liberty can take advantage of as they forced turnovers in 19.1% of their opponent’s possessions in conference play. This also helps illuminate why Illinois-Chicago is just 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. |
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03-27-18 | Mississippi State v. Penn State UNDER 136 | Top | 60-75 | Win | 100 | 8 h 35 m | Show |
At 9:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Mississippi State Bulldogs (779) and the Penn State Nittany Lions (780). Mississippi State (25-11) reached the Semifinals of the NIT with their 79-56 upset win at Louisville as a 6-point underdog last Tuesday. The Bulldogs held the Cardinals to just a 35% field goal percentage in that game. This Mississippi State plays very good defense — they rank 31st in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency. Their last five opponents are shooting just 40.1% from the field. The Bulldogs have played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total after a win by at least 20 points. Mississippi State has also played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after winning three straight games — and they have played a decisive 36 of their last 56 games on the road Under the Total after winning three straight games. Additionally, while the Bulldogs have played their last two games on the road as an underdog, they have then played 18 of their last 25 games Under the Total after playing two straight games on the road as a dog. Furthermore, Mississippi State has played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. |
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03-27-18 | Cavs v. Heat +3 | Top | 79-98 | Win | 100 | 5 h 25 m | Show |
At 8:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Miami Heat (770) minus the points versus the Cleveland Cavaliers (769). Miami (39-25) return home after losing their last two games on the road with a 113-107 loss in Indiana on Sunday as a 3-point underdog. The Heat have rebounded to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games after a point spread setback. Additionally, Miami is 6-1-2 ATS in their last 9 games after scoring at least 100 points in their last game. The Heat have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after losing their last two games on the road. Miami has also covered the point spread in 18 of their last 23 games after winning two of their last three games. This team remains with Hassan Whiteside who has missed the last eight games with a hip injury. This Heat is balanced with a good bench who do not rely on just one or two guys outside their star point guard Goran Dragic. The team expects to see head coach Erik Spoelstra back after he took a hiatus for the birth of his child. The Heat return home where they are 22-13 while covering the point spread in 6 straight games. Additionally, Miami is 15-3-3- ATS in their last 21 games against teams with a winning record. |
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03-26-18 | North Texas v. San Francisco -3.5 | Top | 62-72 | Win | 100 | 26 h 30 m | Show |
At 10:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the San Francisco Dons (742) minus the points versus the North Texas Mean Green (741). North Texas (18-17) reached the Finals of this Best-of-Three College Basketball Invitational tournament with their blowout 90-68 win over Jacksonville State. We had the Mean Green in that game — and it was very nice to see them make a season-high 61.5% of their shots in that contest. But this is a team that shoots only 42.6% of their shots away from home — and they will be playing a Dons’ team that place tough on the defensive end of the court by holding their visitors to just a 41.9% field goal percentage. As it is, North Texas has failed to cover the point spread in 33 of their last 48 games after a game where they made at least 50% of their shots — and this includes failing to cover the point spread in six of their last seven games after nailing at least half their shots in their last contest. This is an improving young team under first-year head coach Grant McCasland. They had previously blown out Mercer on their home court by a 97-67 score in their previous game in this tournament. But the Mean Green have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after registering two straight blowout wins by at least 20 points. The offense has exploded for them to score at least 90 points in three straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 27 road games after scoring at least 75 points in three straight contests. Quick first-half efforts have helped this team as they have raced out to score 57 and 47 points in the first 20 minutes of their last two contests — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after scoring at least 40 first-half points in two straight games. Playing in a hostile environments has been an issue for this team — and they turn the ball over in 18.5% of their possessions in Conference USA play which was 12th in that conference. Furthermore, the Mean Green have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after playing their their last two games on their home court. |
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03-26-18 | Sharks -145 v. Blackhawks | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 2 h 58 m | Show |
At 8:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the money-line on the San Jose Sharks (63) versus the Chicago Blackhawks (64). San Jose (43-23-6) has won seven straight games with their 5-1 win over Calgary on Saturday. The Sharks have then won 6 straight games after a win on their home ice any at least two goals — and they have won 13 of their last 15 games after a win at home by at least five goals. San Jose has also won 4 straight games after scoring at least five goals in their last contest — and they have won 7 of their last 10 games after allowing no more than two goals in their last game. The Sharks are looking to make another deep playoff run with an aging core of veterans — they are motivated to improve their playoff positioning in the remaining weeks of the regular season. They got 37 saves on Saturday from their goalie Martin Jones who has stepped up his play as of late. In 10 starts this month, Jones has a sparkling 2.12 Goals-Against-Average along with a .925 save percentage. San Jose has won a decisive 30 of their last 42 road games against teams with a losing record at home. The Sharks have also won 38 of their last 54 games against teams with a losing record. And in their last 8 games against fellow Western Conference opponents, San Jose has won all 8 contests. |
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03-25-18 | Ducks v. Oilers UNDER 5.5 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 31 m | Show |
At 9:35 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Anaheim Ducks (9) and the Edmonton Oilers (10). Edmonton (34-36-4) has won three straight games with their 3-2 win over the Los Angeles Kings last night. Goalie Cam Talbot stopped 27 of the 29 shots he faced to earn the win. This was a great Under situation save for the possibility that backup goalie Al Montoya would be between the pipes tonight given that Talbot played last night. Montoya cannot be trusted with Unders. However, my sources have informed me that Montoya is unavailable this evening (and the Oilers are calling up a backup goaltender from their minor league team) — so it will be Talbot playing again tonight. Voila, we have a great situation for us now. Talbot struggled earlier in the season — and his step back this season from an outstanding 2016-17 campaign is one of the reasons why this Edmonton team will not be in the playoffs this season. But Talbot has found his form this month with a 2.19 Goals-Against-Average and a .936 save percentage. And he has a solid 2.49 GAA with a .912 save percentage when playing without rest so that is not a concern for me. The Oilers have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a victory — and they have played 10 of their last 13 home games Under the Total after a win by one goal or less. Edmonton has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing two goals or less in their last contest. Over their last five games, the Oilers are allowing only 2.4 Goals-Per-Game. Edmonton stays at home where the Under is 6-2-1 in their last 9 games. And in their last 6 games against teams with a winning record, the Under is 3-1-2. |
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03-25-18 | Duke -2.5 v. Kansas | Top | 81-85 | Loss | -106 | 21 h 23 m | Show |
At 5:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Duke Blue Devils (721) minus the points versus the Kansas Jayhawks (722). Kansas (30-7) reached the Elite Eight with their 80-76 win over Clemson on Friday. But now this Jayhawks team gets exposed against a superior opponent with more talent and a more reliable system of play in the Blue Devils. These Jayhawks are not one of Bill Self’s better teams. They lost five games in Big 12 conference play but continued their regular season title streak in large part due to the injury of Texas Tech’s Keenan Evans which triggered the Red Raiders’ four-game losing streak. Kansas’ problems start on defense where they ranked just 46th in the nation in Adjusted Efficiency which is the first time they were outside the Top-24 going back to at least 2002 (kenpom’s data does not go farther back). They were 6th in the Big 12 with Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 108.9 which projects that opponents would score at a 1.09 Points-Per-Possession rate. They only outscored conference opponents by +0.04 PPP. Even worse, because this team plays with four guards, they face a matchup nightmare when encountering a team with multiple big men. Hello, Duke with Marvin Bagley III and Wendell Carter. It is simply a matchup nightmare that 6’8 Svi Mykhailiuk and his 205-lb frame will be required to play defense against either the 6’11 Bagley at 234 lbs or Carter at 6’10 and 259 lbs. The Jayhawks were 7th in the Big 12 by allowing their opponents to make 51.2% of their shots inside the arc. Kansas is likely to get destroyed on the boards as well as they allow their opponents to make 31.5% of their missed shots which is 295th in the nation. The Blue Devils rebound 39.2% of their missed shots which is the top mark in the country. Furthermore, the Jayhawks do not specialize in getting more scoring opportunities in offensive rebounding nor forcing turnovers — and they are awful at getting to the free throw line with a free throw rate which is 329th in the nation. When they do get to the charity stripe, they made only 69% of these shots in Big 12 play (12th in the conference) — and they have a severe liability there with Udoku Azubuike who shoots a mere 41.1% from the line. The Blue Devils do a fine job of defending inside the arc — they hold opponents to just a 45.3% shooting mark with their 2-point shots (17th in the nation) and that mark lowered to a 44.1% mark against ACC foes. To win this game, the Jayhawks will have to make a bunch of 3s — and they do take 41.0% of the field goal attempts from behind the arc. But Duke defends the perimeter quite well using that 2-3 zone which pushes those 3-point attempts farther back — they ranked 20th in the nation with an opponent’s 3-point field goal percentage of 31.9%. I just don’t think the Jayhawks have enough diversity in their scoring options outside 3-point shooting. As it is, this team is due for a letdown. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a win by 6 points or less — and after their 4-point win over Seton Hall in the Round of 32, they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after winning two straight by 6 points or less. Furthermore, Kansas has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games if they have won at least twelve of their previous fifteen games (12-3 in their last 15) — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after winning at least four straight games. |
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03-25-18 | Texas Tech v. Villanova UNDER 144.5 | Top | 59-71 | Win | 100 | 18 h 44 m | Show |
At 2:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Texas Tech Red Raiders (719) and the Villanova Wildcats (720). Texas Tech (27-9) has won five of their last six games with their 78-65 upset win over Purdue on Friday. The Red Raiders made 47.5% of their shots in that game which was actually the best offensive performance in their last five contests. They also held the Boilermakers to just a 44.8% shooting percentage which sounds pretty good (especially against an offensive powerhouse like Purdue) — yet that was their highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last six contests. Texas Tech is a defense-first team that likes to play at a slower pace. They average 66.7 possessions per game which is the 247th fewest in the nation. Chris Beard’s team is 3rd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. While they are facing a Michigan team that scores 87.0 PPG, they have played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total after 15 games into the season against teams that score at least 84.0 PPG. The Red Raiders have also played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total in Tournament action — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total with the Total in the 140 to 149.5 point range. And in the last 42 games on the road with no more than one day of rest, they have played 28 of these games Under the Total. |
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03-24-18 | Florida State v. Michigan -3.5 | Top | 54-58 | Win | 100 | 6 h 41 m | Show |
At 8:49 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Michigan Wolverines (516) minus the points versus the Florida State Seminoles (515). Florida State (23-11) pulled off their second straight upset victory on Thursday when they stunned Gonzaga by a 75-60 score as a 6-point underdog. We had the Bulldogs in that game — and we were very disappointed to discover the news that Gonzaga’s star sophomore Killian Tillie was unable to play in that game due to an injury he suffered in practice. That was a fortunate set of circumstances for the Bulldogs — but their bubble looks ready to burst tonight against a very balanced Wolverines team that can match them with their depth. As it is, the Seminoles have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after winning two straight games as an underdog. Florida State has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win. I think the Seminoles’ head coach Leonard Hamilton is very underrated — I was very impressed with his tactics and demeanor in the second-half of their upset win over Xavier last Sunday. The strength of this team is their depth — they played ten players on Thursday who logged in at least ten minutes. But Michigan matches that depth. Lets ignore their blowout win over Texas A&M on Thursday given their big lead. In their buzzer-beating win over Houston last Saturday, the Wolverines had eight players log in at least 10 minutes with a ninth player in Jaaron Simmons being a fifth-year senior who was the best player for Ohio last year who still grabs a few minutes a game as the third point guard in their rotation. The Seminoles simply do not do enough things well to compete against an elite unit like these Wolverines. Their defense was mediocre at best in the ACC where they ranked 13th in Adjusted Efficiency. They allowed ACC foes to make a whopping 40.4% of their 3-point shots which was 14th in the conference. On offense, they made only 33.0% of their 3-pointers which was 13th in the ACC. Florida State generates much of their points from drawing fouls as they led the ACC in free throw rate. But John Beilein teams generally do not commit many personal fouls. This year’s Michigan team is fouling more than in previous seasons — but they are still only averaging 16 personal fouls per game. The Seminoles have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 road games after 15 games into the season against teams that did not commit more than 17 personal fouls per game. Furthermore, Florida State has failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 28 road games after 15 games into the season against teams with a winning record. And in their last 10 games played on a neutral court with the Total set in the 140 to 144.5 point range, the Seminoles have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of these contests. |
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03-24-18 | Loyola-Chicago +1 v. Kansas State | Top | 78-62 | Win | 100 | 5 h 9 m | Show |
At 6:07 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers (513) plus (or minus if the point spread moves before tip off) the points versus the Kansas State Wildcats (514). The similarities between these two teams just begins with the notion that neither of these 11th seeded and 9th seeded teams in the South Region were expected to reach the Elite Eight. Both of these teams are extremely well coached groups that emphasize defense first while playing at a slow pace. Neither team emphasizes rebounding although the Ramblers do a much better job in protecting their offensive glass. The Wildcats create more scoring opportunities by forcing turnovers — but the Ramblers counter that by being very good with their 3-point shooting. Loyola-Chicago (31-5) has the edge in this matchup. Three of their losses were without junior point guard Clayton Cluster available — so they are actually 31-2 when he is healthy and on the court. With five upperclassmen in their rotation, the Rambers are an experienced group. And this Loyola-Chicago team just has more reliable ways to generate offense. The Ramblers are 15th in the nation with a 39.9% shooting percentage from behind the arc — and they also make 56.6% of their shots inside the arc (12th in the nation) with an intricate set of patient but effective maneuvers that helped them put on a shooting clinic in the second-half of their 68-68 victory over Nevada on Thursday. Loyola-Chicago has pulled off three straight upset victories in this tournament — but they have then covered the point spread in 6 straight games after an upset victory. Additionally, the Ramblers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams outside the Missouri Valley Conference — and they are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Loyola-Chicago has covered the point spread in 5 straight games on a neutral court. And in their last 8 games as an underdog, Loyola-Chicago has covered the point spread 7 times. |
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03-24-18 | Central Michigan v. Liberty -2.5 | Top | 71-84 | Win | 100 | 2 h 21 m | Show |
At 2:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Liberty Flames (518) minus the points versus the Central Michigan Chippewas (517). Liberty (21-14) has won four of their last five games after their 65-52 win over North Carolina A&T way back on March 12th as a 12-point favorite. The Flames will benefit from the extra time off as they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 boarded games when playing with at least seven days of rest. Liberty has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 boarded games after a point spread win. The Flames went into halftime with a low-scoring 23-21 lead in that game — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight boarded games after failing to score at least 25 points in the first half of their last game. Liberty gets to host this game on their home court where they are 11-6 this season with an average winning margin of +12.8 PPG. They hold their visitors to scoring just 58.7 PPG on a low 38.8% field goal percentage at home. The Flames have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on their home court — and they have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Liberty does an outstanding job of protecting their defensive glass — they are second in the nation by rebounding 80.1% of opponent’s missing shots. This will frustrate the Chippewas who led the Mid-American Conference in offensive rebounding. Additionally, Liberty has held their last five opponents to just a 35.3% field goal percentage. Furthermore, the Flames have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 boarded games as the favorite. |
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03-23-18 | Texas Tech +2 v. Purdue | Top | 78-65 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
At 9:57 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Texas Tech Red Raiders (873) plus the point(s) versus the Purdue Boilermakers (874). Purdue (30-6) has won seven of their last eight games with their 76-73 win over Butler as a 4-point favorite on Sunday. The Boilermakers won that game despite being without their anchor in the middle in Isaac Haas who suffered a broken elbow in their previous game against Cal-State Fullerton. His presence was missed in the middle as the Bulldogs made 60% of their shots inside the arc. Purdue does have a capable backup at center in another seven-footer in Matt Haarms — but the problem is that he cannot log a ton of minutes. He played 29 minutes against Butler which meant that the Boilermakers which left them very vulnerable inside the arc for those remaining 11 minutes. Depth is now a significant issue for this team that was riding high using four perimeter players surrounding their two seven-footers that head coach Matt Painter rotated between. As it is, Purdue has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after a straight-up loss. The Boilermakers have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a straight-up win where they failed to cover the point spread — and they are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a point spread win. I have two other concerns for this team. First, they are now even more dependent on their 3-point shooting after losing a player in Haas who was leading the nation in post-up points. Purdue takes over 40% of their shots from behind the arc — and while they have made 43% of these shots so far in the Big Dance, they are now facing a Red Raiders team that holds their opponents to just a 32.7% shooting mark behind the arc (41st in the nation). Second, the Boilermakers do not protect their defensive glass as opponents pull down 27.9% of their missed shots (137th in the nation). Texas Tech crashes the glass as they pull down 33.2% of their misses (45th in the nation). Purdue has failed to cover the point spread in four of their last five games — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. And in their last 8 games when playing on a neutral court as a favorite or pick ‘e, the Boilermakers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of these contests. |
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03-23-18 | Clemson v. Kansas UNDER 143 | Top | 76-80 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
At 7:07 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Clemson Tigers (877) and the Kansas Jayhawks (878). Clemson (25-9) reached the Sweet 16 with their 84-53 upset win over Auburn on Sunday. The Tigers flexed their muscles on defense by holding the Tigers to just a 25.8% shooting percentage in what was their best defensive effort of the season. Clemson should be able to maintain this level of defensive intensity — they rank 7th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and have held their first two NCAA Tournament opponents to 32% shooting. The Tigers have then played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game. Additionally, Clemson has covered the point spread in four straight games — and they have then played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in two straight games while playing 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in at least three straight games. It is on offense where the Tigers are likely to receive a visit from the Regression Gods after they made 51.6% of their shots in their first two games in the Big Dance including nailing 16 of their 40 (40%) shots from behind the arc. Clemson is not a strong offensive team — they ranked 11th in the ACC in Adjusted Efficiency. The Tigers shooting inside the arc has been the biggest surprise as they made 46 of their 80 (57.5%) 2-point shots after making only 46.2% of their shots inside the arc in ACC play which ranked 10th in the conference. The season-ending injury to their best player in 6’9 Donte Grantham has really hurt the offensive effectiveness of this team. With Grantham on the court, Clemson was making 56.6% of their shots inside the arc — but without him, they see that number drop to just a 45.4% slip for their 2-pointers. They were scoring 77 PPG before Grantham’s injury but that number dropped to a 68 PPG clip for this team before they began the Big Dance. The Tigers benefited from playing New Mexico State and an Auburn team that suffered their own challenging season-ending injury in Anfernee McLemore who their best post defender. Moving forward, the Tigers have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total in non-conference play. |
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03-22-18 | Florida State v. Gonzaga -6 | Top | 75-60 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
At 9:57 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Gonzaga Bulldogs (820) minus the points versus the Florida State Seminoles (819). Gonzaga (32-4) has won sixteen games in a row after they outlasted Ohio State on Sunday with their 90-84 win as a 4-point favorite. The Bulldogs won that game despite their experienced veterans not playing particularly well in that game. Sophomore Rui Hachimura and freshman Zach Norvell combined to score 53 points in that game despite not being in the rotation for Mark Few for this team last year that made their run to the National Championship Game. Look for the Gonzaga veterans to play better tonight. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 25 games after winning at least ten straight games. Gonzaga has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 80 points in their last game. This is an outstanding team on both ends of the court as they rank 14th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and 12th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They have enjoyed good starts in each of their last three games as they entered halftime with leads of 11, 9 and 9 points in each of their last three games. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 31 games after owning halftime leads of at least 5 points in each of their last three games. Gonzaga has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games played on a neutral court as a favorite or pick ‘em — including covering the point spread in three straight games when favored on a neutral court by 6 points or less. |
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03-22-18 | Texas A&M v. Michigan -2.5 | Top | 72-99 | Win | 100 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
At 7:35 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Michigan Wolverines (818) minus the points versus the Texas A&M Aggies (817). Michigan (30-7) has won eleven straight games with their 64-63 buzzer-beating win over Houston last Saturday as a 3.5-point favorite. The Wolverines on the game despite making only 35.6% of their shots in that game which was their worst offensive performance of the season. Michigan also made only 8 of their 30 shots from behind the arc (26.7%) which was far below the 37.3% mark they enjoyed from 3-point range in Big Ten play. Given the Wolverines credit for doing what was necessary to win their two games played in Wichita despite not playing at their best. Don’t be surprised if this team plays much better tonight — they face an opponent in these Aggies that match up very well against them. As it is, Michigan has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win. The Wolverines have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread loss. This is a good pairing for this Michigan team because Texas A&M does a great job in taking away second chances for their opponents on offense with their outstanding frontline. But the Wolverines sacrifice offensive rebounding with getting back on defense. However, Michigan does commit themselves to protecting their defensive glass: they are 3rd in the nation by holding their opponents to just 8.0 PPG in Second-Chance Opportunities — and that mark has dropped to just 7.0 PPG on Second-Chance-Opportunities in the NCAA Tournament. The Wolverines are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games played on a neutral court. |
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03-21-18 | Utah v. St. Mary's -6.5 | Top | 67-58 | Loss | -106 | 7 h 22 m | Show |
At 10:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Saint Mary’s Gaels (768) minus the points versus the Utah Utes (767). Saint Mary’s (30-5) has won six of their last seven games after defeating Washington on Monday as an 11-point favorite to advance to the Quarterfinals of the NIT. The Gaels are tough to beat when they get their offense going as they have in this tournament. They made 56.4% of their shots in their win over the Huskies on the heels of making 59.3% of their shots in their 89-45 blowout win over Southeastern Louisiana in the opening round of the NIT last Tuesday. Saint Mary’s have then covered the point spread in a decisive 49 of their last 67 home games after scoring at least 85 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after scoring at least 85 points their last two games. The Gaels have the luxury of staying at home for this contest which will be their last game on their home court this season before the Semifinals are played in Madison Square Garden. This is the third straight game that Saint Mary’s was the home favorite in this tournament — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 home games after playing their last two games at home as the favorite. The Gaels are 18-1 on their home court this season with an average winning margin of +17.8 PPG. Saint Mary’s makes 51.1% of their shots at home while limiting their opponents to just 60.9 PPG on low 41.7% shooting. Additionally, the Gaels have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 opportunities to play a team from the Pac-12. |
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03-21-18 | Jacksonville State v. North Texas +1 | Top | 68-90 | Win | 100 | 3 h 1 m | Show |
At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the North Texas Mean Green (778) plus (or minus) the points versus the Jacksonville State Gamecocks (777). North Texas (17-17) is playing its best basketball of the season in March as they followed up a 13-point win at South Dakota in the opening round of the College Basketball Invitational with their 96-67 blowout win over Mercer as a 3-point underdog on Monday. Sophomore Roosevelt Smart has continued his breakout season by averaging 32.5 PPG in this tournament but he is being joined by junior guard Jordan Duffey who is finding his own rhythm with this team after scoring 31 points while nailing 6 shots from behind the arc in that win over the Tigers. First-year head coach Grant McCasland deserves a tremendous amount of credit for continuing to lead his team to improvement this season. He inherited a Mean Green team that was 8-22 overall while winning only two of their eighteen conference games. But this North Texas team was 8-10 in Conference USA this season including the suffering of three tough losses in a 6-point loss at Middle Tennessee along with an overtime loss at home to Western Kentucky and a 2-point loss to Marshall. McCarsland pulled off a similar feat last season when he led Arkansas State to a 20-12 mark after they were just 11-20 in the previous season. This Mean Green team is very motivated to continue to build momentum for next season. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning two of their last three games. UNT has also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after playing a game as an underdog. The Mean Green opened as a small favorite in this game — but the line movement has them a small dog now in many spots. Regardless, North Texas has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games at home in expected home games where they are listed in the +/- 3-point range. Additionally, the Mean Green has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against teams outside Conference USA. |
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03-20-18 | Mississippi State v. Louisville OVER 144 | Top | 79-56 | Loss | -108 | 2 h 44 m | Show |
At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Mississippi State Bulldogs (667) and the Louisville Cardinals (668). Mississippi State (24-11) has won two straight games — as well as three of their last four games — with their 78-77 upset win at Baylor on Sunday as a 5.5-point underdog. The Bulldogs have then played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread win. Mississippi State has also played a decisive 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a game where both teams scored at least 75 points. The Bulldogs stay on the road where they have played 6 of their last 8 road games Over the Total — and they have also played 6 of their last 8 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on their home court. |
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03-20-18 | Blue Jackets -138 v. Rangers | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 2 h 46 m | Show |
At 7:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Columbus Blue Jackets (53) versus the New York Rangers (54). Columbus (40-28-1) is one of the hottest teams in the NHL right now as they have won seven straight games with their 5-4 win at Boston last night. The Blue Jackets have won 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least five goals in their last game. Columbus has also won 4 of their last 5 games when playing their third game in four days. And in their last 11 games when having won seven straight games, the Blue Jackets have won in 10 of those contests. They return to their Sergei Bobrovsky between the pipes tonight after backup Joonas Korpisalo got the start last night. Bobrovsky has a nice 2.35 Goals-Against-Average in the month of March with a .926 save percentage. Columbus has won 4 straight games against teams with a winning record. The Blue Jackets have also won 6 straight games against fellow Eastern Conference opponents. |
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03-19-18 | Washington v. St. Mary's UNDER 143.5 | Top | 81-85 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 19 m | Show |
At 11:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Huskies (621) and the St. Mary’s Gaels (622). St. Mary’s (29-5) reached the second round of the NIT last Tuesday with their 89-45 win over Southeastern Louisiana as a 14.5-point favorite. The Gaels torched the Lions by making 59.3% of their shots which was the best offensive effort in their last eight games. This game shapes up to be more of a defensive struggle. St. Mary’s has played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a win by at least 20 points — and they have played 7 straight games Under the Total after a win by at least 30 points. Additionally, the Gaels have paled 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a win at home — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a point spread. Furthermore, this team has played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after scoring at least 80 points in their last game — and they have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 50 points in their last game. St. Mary’s gets to host this second round game where they are holding their opponents to just 59.8 PPG on 40.9% shooting. The Gaels have played 14 of their last 16 games Under the Total on their home court. And in their last 5 games against non-conference opponents, St. Mary’s has played 4 of these games Under the Total. |
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03-19-18 | LSU v. Utah -5 | Top | 71-95 | Win | 100 | 3 h 43 m | Show |
At 9:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Utah Utes (620) minus the points versus the LSU Tigers (619). Utah (20-11) has won 2 of their last three games after their 69-59 win over Cal-Davis in the first round of the NIT last Wednesday as a 12-point favorite. The Utes are then 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after an ATS loss. Utah gets to host this Second Round game where they are 14-3 with an average winning margin of +12.5 PPG this season. This Utah team plays very good defense — they are holding their visitors to just a 47.1% shooting percentage. They host a Tigers team that was last in the SEC in offensive rebounding with a 25.1% rate that was last in the conference. That is a good thing since the Utes were 10th in the Pac-12 in defensive rebounding. LSU was 12th in the SEC on free throw rate while only making 33.4% of their missed shots (8th in the SEC). What the Tigers do best on offense is make shots inside the arc as they were 3rd in the SEC by making 52.3% of their 2-point shots. But Utah ranked 2nd in the nation by holding their opponents to just a 47.1% shooting percentage inside the arc. The Utes are 10-4-3 ATS in their last 17 games — and they are 41-14-2 ATS in their last 57 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. |
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03-18-18 | Marshall v. West Virginia -12.5 | Top | 71-94 | Win | 100 | 7 h 48 m | Show |
At 9:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the West Virginia Mountaineers (722) minus the points versus the Marshall Thundering Herd (721). Marshall (25-10) upset Western Kentucky last week to win the Conference USA Tournament — and they pulled that feat off again on Friday when they upset Wichita State despite being a 13.5-point underdog with their 81-75 victory. Dan D’Antoni and his up-tempo system that seeks to maximize offensive efficiency — like what his brother Mike does as the head coach of the Houston Rockets — has received much adulation over the last two days. But the Thundering Herd look primed for a big letdown now. Somehow, this amazing “system” has never helped his brother reach even the NBA Finals with any of the various teams he has coached. And somehow, the Thundering Herd had lost ten times this year before finding magic in these last two games. But Marshall has then failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 39 games after winning at least four straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after winning at least five straight contests. Additionally, that victory over the Hilltoppers was another close call by just one point — and the Thundering Herd have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after winning their last two contests by 6 points or less. Frankly, this is now a bad matchup for Marshall as they are playing another team that excels in the efficiency formula for success. The Thundering Herd shoot 45.4% of their shots from behind the arc despite making only 35.7% of those shots. They thrive inside the arc where they make 56.0% of their 2-point shots which is 19th best in the nation. But the Mountaineers hold their opponents to just a 45.7% of their shots inside the arc (29th in the nation). Furthermore, Marshall sacrifices rebounding for the fast pace they want on both ends of the court. The Mountaineers are vulnerable to teams that pound the offensive glass (not Marshall) — but they pull down 36.7% of their missed shots which is 4th best in the nation. The Thundering Herd are 308th in the nation by allowing their opponents to rebound 32.0% of their misses — and they have been out-rebounded by 15 and 10 boards in their last two games. Marshall has then failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after being out-rebounded by double-digits in two straight games. |
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03-18-18 | Syracuse v. Michigan State -8 | Top | 55-53 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 41 m | Show |
At 2:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Michigan State Spartans (716) minus the points versus the Syracuse Orange (715). Syracuse (22-13) pulled off their second straight upset victory in this NCAA Tournament with their 57-52 win over TCU on Friday as a 4.5-point underdog. The bubble is about to burst for the Orange this afternoon. They have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after winning two straight games as an underdog — and this includes failing to cover the point spread in three of the last four of those situations. Syracuse has also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after a point spread win. And in their last 12 games after winning two straight games, the Orange have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of these games |
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03-17-18 | Loyola-Chicago v. Tennessee UNDER 131 | Top | 63-62 | Win | 100 | 3 h 24 m | Show |
At 6:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers (531) and the Tennessee Volunteers (532). Tennessee (28-8) played perhaps their best defensive game of the season on Thursday in their 73-47 win over Wright State. The Volunteers held the Raiders to just a 31.7% shooting percentage which was their best defensive performance of the season. Expect another outstanding defensive effort from Rick Barnes’ team as they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing 50 or less points in their last game. Tennessee has also played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a win by at least 20 points. This Vols team boasts the nation’s 5th best statistical defense in terms of Adjusted Efficiency. They should slow down this Ramblers’ juggernaut. Tennessee can be exploited on the offensive glass — they allow their opponents to rebound 31.3% of their missed shots which is 288th in the nation. But this Loyola-Chicago team sacrifices offensive rebounding to get back on defense — they only rebound 22.2% of their missed shots which is 332nd lowest in the nation. Of course, the Ramblers’ commitment to getting back on defense will frustrate the Volunteers who love to get their offense going on the fast break. Tennessee struggles in their half-court offense — they make only 47.2% of their shots inside the arc (282nd in the nation). Tennessee has played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. And in their last 12 games with the Total set in the 130 to 139.5 point range, the Volunteers have played 9 of these games Under the Total. |
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03-16-18 | Syracuse v. TCU -4.5 | Top | 57-52 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
At 9:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the TCU Horned Frogs (876) minus the points versus the Syracuse Orange (875). TCU (21-11) enters the Big Dance on a two-game losing streak after they were upset by Kansas State as a 3-point favorite last Thursday in the Big 12 Tournament. Head coach Jamie Dixon should have his team ready to bounce-back as the Horned Frogs have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 31 games on the road after an upset loss. Furthermore, TCU has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a loss to a conference rival. The Horned Frogs are also 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a point spread setback. Much will be made about TCU’s ability to handle the Syracuse 2-3 matchup zone — but Dixon has plenty of experience matching wits with Jim Boeheim given his long tenure at Pitt. Dixon’s teams won fifteen of their twenty-one games against Syracuse over his tenure. Dixon’s teams always are well-schooled in making extra passes that serve to expose the holes that zone defenses inevitably leave. This Horned Frogs team is 7th in the nation in assisted field goal rate. It is telling that TCU won both their games this season against a Baylor team that also deploys a similar zone defense scheme. The Syracuse zone also leaves a very soft spot down low for offenses to crash the glass. I noted in Wednesday’s Report on the Orange to defeat Arizona State that this year’s Syracuse team was actually doing a better job in protecting their defensive glass. Yet this Orange team is still allowing their opponents to pull down 29.1% of their missed shots which is 203rd in the nation. These Horned Frogs can exploit that weakness as they rank 20th in the nation by rebounding 34.5% of their missed shots. TCU should overwhelm the Syracuse defense — they rank 8th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. The Horned Frogs have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games played on a neutral court. They also have covered the point spread in 5 of the last 6 games when playing on a neutral court as a favorite or pick ‘em — and they have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games on a neutral court with the Total set in the 130 to 139.5 point range. |
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03-15-18 | Montana +11 v. Michigan | Top | 47-61 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
At 9:50 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Montana Grizzlies (733) plus the points versus the Michigan Wolverines (734). Michigan (28-7) has won nine games in a row — culminating with upset wins over Michigan State and Purdue on consecutive days to win the Big Ten Tournament back on March 4th. John Beilein is one of the best coaches in College Basketball — but this Wolverines team is not nearly as reliable when being asked to cover double-digit point spreads against feisty rivals. For starters, an emotional letdown should be expected for this team after playing underdog in those final two games to win the Big Ten Tournament. As it is, Michigan has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after registering two straight upset losses. The long layoff is an issue for this team that led the Big Ten by averaging 24.8 shots from behind the arc per game while generating 43% of their offense from 3-point land. Playing on an unfamiliar neutral court for the first time in eleven days may mess with the accuracy of their long jump shots. The Wolverines have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games when playing with at least seven days between games. Now this team has the burden of the pressure of expectations against a potential Cinderella opponent. Remember, this team almost was upset by Iowa in the first round of the Big Ten Tournament where the Hawkeyes were able to rally back to force overtime. The Achilles’ heel for the Wolverines is their free throw shooting — they rank 329th in the nation by making only 65.7% of their shots from the charity stripe. Compounding this problem is that two of their key ball handlers in point guard Xavier Simpson and wing Charles Matthews make only 51.9% and 56.1% of their free throws. They made only 18 of their 32 (56.2%) of their free throws in that Iowa game — and this provides a blue print for Montana to keep their game close with the Wolverines. The other problem for Michigan against the Hawkeyes was that their two starting big men in Moritz Wagner and Muhammad-Ali Abdur Rahman both fouled out in that game — and the interior depth for this team gets thin pretty quickly. The Wolverines avoided foul troubles against the Spartans and Boilermakers as they committed ten less personal fouls and five less personal fouls respectively in those games. But Michigan has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after committing at least five less personal fouls than their opponents in two straight games. Montana predicates their game on drawing fouls and winning the free throw battle — so this is a real area of vulnerability for the Wolverines. Furthermore, Michigan committed only 5 turnovers in their 75-66 win over Purdue in the Big Ten Championship Game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not committing more than 5 turnovers. Beilein-coached teams always do a great job in protecting the basketball — but they cannot expect to replicate their microscopic 7.8% turnover rate which was about half of their still outstanding rate for the season. |
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03-15-18 | Wright State v. Tennessee UNDER 132 | Top | 47-73 | Win | 100 | 5 h 37 m | Show |
At 12:40 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Wright State Raiders (737) and the Tennessee Volunteers (738). I used to like taking Unders for these early tournament games on neutral courts in the Conference Tournaments — but too many bettors started latching on to that angle to squash much of the value in these investments. I had no early Unders for the Conference Tournaments (and I might have had an Over?) — but I do like the convergence of factors for this game to be lower scoring than expected between two teams with stout defenses but who can experience scoring droughts. And this game will tip off 11:40 AM local time in Dallas which may contribute to a groggy start for both teams. Wright State (25-9) is a defense-first team that ranked 30th in the nation by allowing only 65.7 PPG. Led by 6’9 freshman Loudon Love and 6’11 Parker Ernsthausen make it very tough for opposing teams to score inside — the Raiders’ ranked 26th in the nation by limiting their opponents to making just 45.6% of their shots inside the arc with that number dropping to just a 44.3% mark in Horizon League play. This strength compels them to play at a slow pace where they are quite content to grind out low-scoring games. This Wright State team has a low effective field goal percentage of 49.0% ranking 254th in the nation — and they make only 34.0% of their shots from behind the arc which ranks 221st in the nation. Only Grant Benzinger makes more than 36% of his shots from 3-point land This team plays as if the first team to 65 points wins — they averaged only 64 PPG in their nine losses this year. They won the Horizon League Tournament with their 74-57 win over Cleveland State — and they have then played 7 straight games Under the Total after a win by at least 15 points. And while that game finished Over the 126.5 point total, the Raiders have then played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after playing an Over. They limited the Vikings to only 4 offensive rebounds in that game to continue their strong protection of their defensive glass as they ranked 38th in the nation by limiting their opponents to pulling down just 25.0% of their missed shots. Wright State has then played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 5 offensive rebounds in their last game. And in their last 10 games against teams outside the Horizon League, Wright State has played 7 of these games Under the Total. |
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03-14-18 | Washington v. Boise State UNDER 148.5 | Top | 77-74 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
At 10:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Huskies (625) and the Boise State Broncos (626). Washington (20-12) enters the NIT having lost two straight games after losing to Oregon State in the Pac-12 Tournament by a 69-66 score last Wednesday as a 2.5-point underdog. The Huskies made only 38.3% of their shots in that game but did hold the Beavers to a 39.3% shooting percentage. Washington has then played 20 of their last 24 games Under the Total after a loss to a conference rival. The Huskies have also played 20 of their last 26 games Under the Total — and they have played 20 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Washington was the lower seed in this game — but a conflict with the Boise State basketball arena tonight means that the Huskies will be hosting this game. The Huskies have played 8 of their last 11 home games Under the Total. Washington has also played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. And while this team has played their last two games Under the Total, they have then played 17 of their last 21 games Under the Total after playing at least two straight games Under the Total. |
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03-14-18 | Colgate v. San Francisco UNDER 140.5 | Top | 68-72 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
At 10:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Colgate Raiders (633) and the San Francisco Dons (634). San Francisco (18-15) has lost two of their last three games after their 88-60 loss to Gonzaga as a 13-point underdog back on March 5th. The Dons played their worst defensive game of the season by watching the Bulldogs make 53.3% of their shots in that game. Expect a strong defensive effort from San Francisco tonight as they have played 6 straight games Under the Total after allowing at least 80 points in their last game. The Dons have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a loss by at least 20 points — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. San Francisco hosts this game where they hold their visitors to just a 42.6% shooting percentage — but they only make 42.8% of their shots as well. The Dons have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total — and they have also seen the Under go 11-4-1 in their last 16 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. And in their last 8 home games with the Total set in the 130 to 139.5 point range, the game finished Under the Total 7 times. |
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03-14-18 | Arizona State v. Syracuse +2 | Top | 56-60 | Win | 100 | 7 h 58 m | Show |
At 9:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Syracuse Orange (612) plus the points versus the Arizona State Sun Devils (611). Arizona State (20-11) opened as a 1-point favorite in this game and now find themselves a 2-point favorite in most locations. The deeper analytics suggest that point spread is right in line for this matchup — but those metrics are valuing their earlier season success that simply might have been predicated on outlier performances. After twelve games into the season which included their wins over Kansas and Xavier, the Sun Devils were making almost 60% of their shots inside the arc while nailing 50% of their 3-point shots. Their 59.2% effective field goal percentage was simply unsustainable — only last year’s UCLA team had an eFG at that mark over the last ten seasons of college basketball. So, the Regression Gods were due to make a visit for this team. Furthermore, head coach Bob Hurley’s small-ball formula simply got exposed in Pac-12 Conference play. They only shot better than 50% from the field twice against conference opponents. Their Adjusted Offensive Efficiency that ranks 17th in the nation for the season is contrasted with a subpar Adjusted Offensive Efficiency that was merely 7th in the Pac-12 (with that number ranking 121st in the nation if extended to the entire season). They made only 33.7% of their shots from behind the arc in Pac-12 play while shooting under 50% of their shots inside the arc. So I take their full-season metrics with a big grain of salt. They limp into the Big Dance having lost five of six with their 97-85 upset loss to Colorado last Wednesday — and they have only covered the point spread once in their last six contests. I don’t think the blank slate of the NCAA Tournament helps this team. They have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a loss to a conference rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 road games after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three games. Their declining effectiveness in shooting the basketball is not a good compliment to mediocre defensive play — they were 10th in the Pac-12 by allowing opponents to make 52.7% of their shots inside the arc. These factors explain why Arizona State is just 1-7-2 ATS in their last 10 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. And in their last 36 games played on a neutral court, the Sun Devils have failed to cover the point spread 26 times. |
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03-13-18 | Boston College v. Western Kentucky -5 | Top | 62-79 | Win | 100 | 4 h 28 m | Show |
At 8:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (554) minus the points versus the Boston College Eagles (553). Western Kentucky (24-10) had their NCAA Tournament dreams ruined on Saturday in their 67-66 upset loss to Marshall as a 6-point favorite in the Conference USA Championship Game. The Hilltoppers made only 35.5% of their shots in that game which was their worst offensive effort for the entire season. That was a surprising performance for a team that led Conference USA in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. Look for Western Kentucky to bounce-back against this Eagles team that was 14th of the 15 teams in the ACC in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Hilltoppers have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after an upset loss. Western Kentucky has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a point spread loss. Getting to host this game will help this Hilltoppers team as they are 13-3 on their home court with an average winning margin of +13.3 PPG. Western Kentucky makes 50% of their shots on their home court — and that shooting prowess has helped them cover the point spread in 8 of their last 14 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. This is a good team led by a Virginia transfer in Darius Thompson who came over as a graduate transfer this season. The Hilltoppers defeated Purdue on a neutral court back in November. Western Kentucky has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games against non-conference opponents. And in their last 6 games in Tournament play, the Hilltoppers have covered the point spread 5 times. |
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03-13-18 | Long Island v. Radford UNDER 139 | Top | 61-71 | Win | 100 | 18 h 38 m | Show |
At 6:40 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Long Island Blackbirds (543) and the Radford Highlanders (544). Redford (22-12) earned an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament with their 55-52 win over Liberty last Sunday to win the Big South Conference Tournament. The Highlanders got it done by playing outstanding defense. They have held their last five opponents to just a 39.2% shooting percentage which is a bit lower than their 42.8% opponent’s field goal percentage for the season. Radford has then played 4 straight boarded games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 boarded games Under the Total after a win over a conference rival. Additionally, the Highlanders have played 6 of their last 7 boarded games Under the Total after not allowing more than 55 points in their last game. Radford’s win over Liberty occurred despite the Flames making 43.9% of their shots which was the best shooting percentage of their last seven opponents. The Highlanders shot 36.2% from the field which sounds low — but it was actually their best field goal percentage over their last three games. Scoring is an issue for this Radford team that makes only 41.2% of their shots away from home. They are making only 39.6% of their shots over their last five games. The Highlanders scored only 61 points in their previous game — and they have then played 5 of the last 6 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 65 points in two straight games. They only had 7 assists in their win over Liberty — and they have played 5 straight boarded games Under the Total after failing to generate at least 9 team assists in their last game. Long Island loves to shoot 3s as they average 23 shots from behind the 3-point line — but head coach Mike Jones coached teams have played 9 of their last 11 boarded games Under the Total against opponents who attempt at least 21 shots from behind the arc per game. Redford was 2nd in the Big South in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they led the conference by holding their opponents to just a 47.1% shooting percentage inside the arc. |
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03-11-18 | Houston v. Cincinnati -4 | Top | 55-56 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 57 m | Show |
At 3:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bearcats (828) minus the points versus the Houston Cougars (827). Cincinnati (29-4) has won six games in a row with their 70-60 win over Memphis yesterday as a 17-point favorite. The Bearcats have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win where they failed to cover the point spread as the favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after winning at least two straight games against conference rivals. The Bearcats get it done with defense as they are 2nd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Cincinnati has not allowed more than 61 points in four straight games — and they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than 65 points in each of their last four games. This is expected to be another low-scoring game with the total in the 128 point range. The Bearcats have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games with the Total set no higher than 130. Cincinnati will also be looking to avenge a 67-62 upset loss to the Cougars back on February 15th — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games when playing with revenge. |
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03-10-18 | USC +4 v. Arizona | Top | 61-75 | Loss | -107 | 4 h 30 m | Show |
At 10:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the USC Trojans (543) plus the points versus the Arizona Wildcats (544). USC (23-10) has won six of their last seven games with their 74-54 win over Oregon yesterday as a 3-point favorite over the Ducks. Look for the Trojans to build off that momentum tonight and keep this game very close (if they do not pull the outright upset). They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after winning three of their last four contests. Additionally, USC typically plays well on neutral courts as they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games on a neutral court — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games on a neutral court with the Total set in the 140 to 149.5 point range. Additionally, the Trojans have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. USC will be additionally motivated with revenge on their minds after losing to the Wildcats by an 81-67 score in Tuscon. The Trojans have covered then point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when avenging a loss on the road. |
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03-10-18 | West Virginia v. Kansas +1.5 | Top | 70-81 | Win | 100 | 2 h 37 m | Show |
At 6:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Kansas Jayhawks (532) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the West Virginia Mountaineers (531). West Virginia (24-9) opened as a small underdog for this Big 12 Tournament Championship Game but betting action has moved the Mountaineers to a small favorite in this game. Perhaps bettors expect West Virginia to dominate down low against this Jayhawks team missing 7’0 Udoka Azubuike with a knee injury. More on that below. But this Mountaineers team has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 Tournament Championship Games. They enter this year’s Finals coming off their 66-63 win over Texas Tech as a 2-point favorite yesterday. West Virginia has then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. The Mountaineers have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a close win by 3 points or less against a conference rival. And while West Virginia has won five of their last six games (and six of their last eight games), they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 road games after winning six or seven of their last eight games. The Mountaineers will be motivated by the fact that they lost their two previous meetings with the Jayhawks this season — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last opportunities to avenge a loss to their opponent. The fact is that West Virginia does not match up very well with this Kansas team. “Press Virginia” is 2nd in the nation in forcing turnovers — but the Jayhawks are 2nd in the Big 12 by turning the ball over in just 16.7% of their possessions. This year’s Kansas team is 20th in the nation by making 39.8% of their 3-point attempts — and they led the Big 12 with 42.7% of their field goal attempts being from behind the arc. The Mountaineers are 8th in the Big 12 by allowing their opponents to make 38.0% of their 3-point attempts. It will be hard for West Virginia to keep up in the scoring department considering that they are making only 41.3% of their shots on the road. |
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03-09-18 | San Diego State v. Nevada -2.5 | Top | 90-73 | Loss | -115 | 2 h 13 m | Show |
At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Nevada Wolf Pack (874) minus the points versus the San Diego State Aztecs (873). Nevada (27-6) has won seven of their last eight games with their 79-74 win over UNLV yesterday as a 5-point favorite. The Wolf Pack showed their resolve in that game as they went into the locker room at halftime down 8 points — and then they saw the Runnin’ Rebels make their first two baskets in the second-half. But this resilient Nevada team made 10 of their first 12 shots in the second-half — including five 3-pointers — to take re-establish their momentum to win the game. The Wolf Pack shot just 44.3% from the field in that game which was their worst offensive effort in their last three games. This is a dynamic offensive team that ranks 9th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they also rank 10th in the nation by making 40.3% of their 3-point shots. They will be very motivated tonight as they look to avenge a 79-74 loss to the Aztecs at San Diego State just last Saturday. Nevada has been very reliable in revenge situations as they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 opportunities to avenge a loss — and they have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games when avenging a loss on the road. Furthermore, the Wolf Pack have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games when playing with revenge from a loss where they allowed at least 75 points. Nevada plays well in these tournament situations — they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games when playing with one day or less of rest and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when playing on a neutral court as a favorite or pick ‘em. This team certainly will feel comfortable shooting in the Thomas & Mack Center after their offensive display in the second-half yesterday. Furthermore, the Wolf Pack have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games after fifteen games into the season against teams with a winning percentage in the 60-80% range. |
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03-09-18 | Mississippi State v. Tennessee UNDER 133 | Top | 59-62 | Win | 100 | 2 h 24 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Mississippi State Bulldogs (849) and the Tennessee Volunteers (850). Mississippi State (22-10) reached the Quarterfinals of the SEC Tournament yesterday with their 80-77 win over LSU as a 3-point favorite. The Bulldogs shot lights out in that game by making 58.3% of their shots which was not only their best field goal percentage over their last six games but also their third best offensive effort of the season. But Mississippi State has then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after shooting at least 55% from the field in their last game. The Bulldogs have also played 30 of their last 46 road games Under the Total when playing with one day or rest between games. Additionally, Mississippi State has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total when an underdog or a pick ‘em. And while the Volunteers are outscoring their opponents by +8.1 PPG this season, the Bulldogs have played 5 straight games Under the Total against opponents that outscore their opponents by at least +8.0 PPG. |
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03-09-18 | Providence v. Xavier -8 | Top | 75-72 | Loss | -104 | 1 h 24 m | Show |
At 6:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Xavier Musketeers (858) minus the points versus the Providence Friars (857). Providence (20-12) has won three of their last four games after their 72-68 upset win over Creighton yesterday in a game that went to overtime. Look for the Friars to suffer a letdown tonight — they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a win by 6 points or less. That win for Providence came after a 61-57 narrow win over St. John’s in their last game in the regular season — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in their last 3 games after eking out two straight wins by 6 points or less. The Friars were 3.5-point underdogs against the Bluejays yesterday — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. Additionally, Providence has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games when winning two of their last three games. And in their last 17 games with the Total set in the 140 to 149.5 point range, the Friars have failed to cover the point spread 11 times. |
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03-09-18 | VCU v. Rhode Island -9 | Top | 67-76 | Push | 0 | 1 h 17 m | Show |
At 12:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Rhode Island Rams (830) minus the points versus the VCU Rams (829). Rhode Island (23-6) enters the Atlantic-10 Tournament coming off two straight losses after their 63-61 loss at Davidson in a pick ‘em contest last Friday. That loss came on the heels of an embarrassing 30-point loss at home for Senior Night against St. Joseph’s. Get this Rams team remains the regular season champions of the conference with their 15-3 record. They should get back to their winning ways in A-10 play this afternoon while benefiting from the rest as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games when playing just their second game in eight days. This team is built to play well in tournament situations as they some of the extra things to create more scoring opportunities if their shots are not falling. Rhode Island is 2nd in the conference by rebounding 31.4% of their missed shots. These Rams also led the A-10 by forcing turnovers in 22.9% of their opponent’s possessions — and this is an area of vulnerability for VCU as they were 12th in the conference by turning the ball over in 19.5% of their possessions. These characteristics have helped Rhode Island cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games played on a neutral court as a favorite or pick em. The Rams limited their turnovers against the Wildcats last week as they only committed 7 turnovers — and they have then covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after not turning the ball over more than 8 times in their last contest. Furthermore, Rhode Island has allowed their last two opponents to pull down only 7 and 9 offensive rebounds — and they have then covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games after not allowing more than 9 offensive rebounds in each of their last two games. This team just needs to shoot the ball better — they made only 40.3% of their shots against Davidson after shooting an awful 28.1% from the field in that loss to St. Joe’s in their final home game of the season. Rhode Island makes a healthy 46% of their shots when playing on the road so don’t be surprised if they break out with a strong shooting effort this afternoon. |
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03-08-18 | San Diego State v. Fresno State UNDER 138 | Top | 64-52 | Win | 100 | 1 h 17 m | Show |
At 5:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Diego State Aztecs (719) and the Fresno State Bulldogs (720). San Diego State (19-10) has won six straight games with their 79-74 win over Nevada last Saturday as a 1.5-point favorite. The Aztecs made 49.2% of their shots in that game which was their best shooting effort in their last four games. They also allowed the Wolf Pack to make 49.2% of their shots which was their worst defensive performance in their last seven contests. Both of those results should see some regression this afternoon which points to an Under. As it is, the Under is 5-0-1 in San Diego State’s last 6 games after a straight-up win — and the Under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 games after a point spread victory. The Aztecs have also played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after winning three straight games against conference rivals. Now this team goes back on the road after playing their last two games at home — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total after playing their last two games on their home court. And in their last 6 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%, the Under is 4-1-1 for San Diego State. |
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03-07-18 | Florida Atlantic +10 v. UAB | Top | 72-83 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 18 m | Show |
At 10:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Florida Atlantic Owls (619) plus the points versus the UAB Blazers (620). UAB (19-12) probably played their best game of the season last Saturday when they upset Western Kentucky by a 101-73 score as a 1-point underdog. The Blazers held the Hilltoppers to just a 42.9% shooting percentage which was impressive — but they also made a sizzling 61.7% of their shots from the field which was their best shooting performance of the season. Now as a double-digit favorite against a team they destroyed by a 75-44 score back on January 4th, it would not be the first time that a team in this situation did not bring their proverbial “A-Game.” As it is, UAB has failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 18 games after a game where they made at least 57% of their shots while holding their opponents to no better than a 43% shooting mark. The Blazers have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a win by at least 20 points. Additionally, UAB has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games hitting the century mark in points — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after scoring at least 90 points in their last game. Furthermore, the Blazers have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games when playing on a neutral court. |
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03-07-18 | Arkansas State v. Louisiana-Monroe -4 | Top | 54-76 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
At 8:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the UL-Monroe Warhawks (590) minus the points versus the Arkansas State Red Wolves (589). UL-Monroe (15-14) has lost two of their last three games entering the Sun Belt Conference Tournament after an upset lose to this Red Wolves team by an 83-79 score despite being a 7.5-point favorite on Saturday. Look for the Warhawks to exact their revenge tonight with this game being playing in the New Orleans Superdome in the Big Easy. UL-Monroe has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after an upset loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after an upset loss to a conference rival. Additionally, the Warhawks have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games after a point spread loss. And while this team has failed to cover the point spread in two straight games, UL-Monroe has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after suffering two straight point spread losses. These Warhawks have raised their level of play in the second-half of the season by winning eight of their last eleven games. The insertion of freshman guard Michael Ertel jumpstarted this group and completed two dynamic wing players in Travis Munnings and Sam McDaniel. This team can score with of their peers in the Sun Belt Conference — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after a game where both teams scored at least 75 points. They also have covered the point spread in 30 of their last 43 games after a game where at least 155 combined points were scored. This will be a very motivated Warhawks team as they lost both their games with the Red Wolves this season. But UL-Monroe has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games when playing with revenge — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games when playing with double revenge. |
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03-06-18 | CS Sacramento v. Portland State -7.5 | Top | 67-71 | Loss | -106 | 4 h 6 m | Show |
At 11:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Portland State Vikings (536) minus the points versus the Sacramento State Hornets (535). Portland State (19-12) has won four of their last five games with their 97-90 win over North Dakota on Saturday as an 8.5-point favorite. Look for the Vikings to build off the momentum of that victory as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win on their home court — and they have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a home victory where they failed to cover the point spread as the favorite. They also have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after allowing at least 90 points in their last game. This team finished 9-9 in the Big Sky Conference — and they will be at full attention against this Hornets team who earned two of their four conference wins this season against them. The Vikings to shoot the basketball in both these previous games this season — they made only 41.7% in the first meeting between these two teams back on December 30th before making just 34.4% of their shots in the rematch at home where they lost by a 71-61 score. Sacramento State has allowed their last five opponents to make 47.8% of their shots — so Portland State has a good chance to shoot better tonight. The Hornets made 48.9% of their shots in that February meeting and have made a sizzling 55% of their (100) shots from the field against the Vikings this season. But the Regression Gods will likely make an appearance tonight as Sacramento State is shooting only 40.9% on the road this year. Portland State should dominate the offensive glass once again tonight after pulling down 38.3% and 34.1% of their missed shots in the first two meetings between these two teams. The Vikings led the Big Sky by rebounding 35.8% of their missed shots — and the Hornets are last in the conference by allowing their opponents to rebound 28.8% of their missed shots. Moving forward, Portland State has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games played on a neutral court. The Vikings have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games with the Total set in the 150 to 159.5 point range. |
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Frank Sawyer ALL Sports Top Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-02-18 | Golden Knights v. Sharks -130 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 2 h 7 m | Show |
05-02-18 | Jazz v. Rockets UNDER 207 | Top | 116-108 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 13 m | Show |
05-01-18 | Pelicans +11.5 v. Warriors | Top | 116-121 | Win | 100 | 5 h 29 m | Show |
04-30-18 | Golden Knights v. Sharks -120 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -120 | 1 h 39 m | Show |
04-30-18 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks -135 | Top | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 1 h 4 m | Show |
04-30-18 | 76ers v. Celtics OVER 205 | Top | 101-117 | Win | 100 | 2 h 21 m | Show |
04-29-18 | Yankees -106 v. Angels | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 4 h 39 m | Show |
04-29-18 | Jets v. Predators OVER 5.5 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 1 h 11 m | Show |
04-29-18 | Penguins v. Capitals -119 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 4 h 38 m | Show |
04-29-18 | Pacers v. Cavs UNDER 199 | Top | 101-105 | Loss | -102 | 3 h 53 m | Show |
04-28-18 | Pelicans v. Warriors OVER 226 | Top | 101-123 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 48 m | Show |
04-28-18 | Sharks v. Golden Knights UNDER 5.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -140 | 1 h 44 m | Show |
04-28-18 | Bucks v. Celtics -4.5 | Top | 96-112 | Win | 100 | 3 h 33 m | Show |
04-27-18 | Cavs v. Pacers | Top | 87-121 | Win | 100 | 19 h 43 m | Show |
04-26-18 | Sharks v. Golden Knights UNDER 5 | Top | 0-7 | Loss | -100 | 1 h 15 m | Show |
04-26-18 | Celtics +4.5 v. Bucks | Top | 86-97 | Loss | -109 | 4 h 39 m | Show |
04-26-18 | Celtics v. Bucks UNDER 201 | Top | 86-97 | Win | 100 | 3 h 8 m | Show |
04-26-18 | Penguins v. Capitals UNDER 6 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 1 h 2 m | Show |
04-25-18 | Wolves +12 v. Rockets | Top | 104-122 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 47 m | Show |
04-25-18 | Maple Leafs v. Bruins UNDER 5.5 | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -114 | 3 h 35 m | Show |
04-25-18 | Nationals v. Giants UNDER 7 | Top | 15-2 | Loss | -110 | 0 h 25 m | Show |
04-24-18 | Bucks v. Celtics -3 | Top | 87-92 | Win | 100 | 15 h 21 m | Show |
04-23-18 | Bruins -115 v. Maple Leafs | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -115 | 1 h 20 m | Show |
04-22-18 | Predators v. Avalanche UNDER 6 | Top | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 2 h 16 m | Show |
04-22-18 | Celtics +6 v. Bucks | Top | 102-104 | Win | 100 | 1 h 46 m | Show |
04-21-18 | Thunder v. Jazz UNDER 208.5 | Top | 102-115 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 30 m | Show |
04-21-18 | Devils v. Lightning UNDER 6 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 0 h 22 m | Show |
04-20-18 | Cavs v. Pacers UNDER 209.5 | Top | 90-92 | Win | 100 | 4 h 11 m | Show |
04-19-18 | Warriors v. Spurs UNDER 207 | Top | 110-97 | Push | 0 | 6 h 38 m | Show |
04-18-18 | Ducks v. Sharks OVER 5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -136 | 5 h 51 m | Show |
04-18-18 | Jazz +5 v. Thunder | Top | 102-95 | Win | 100 | 3 h 20 m | Show |
04-17-18 | Pelicans v. Blazers -6 | Top | 111-102 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 40 m | Show |
04-16-18 | Heat +7 v. 76ers | Top | 113-103 | Win | 100 | 2 h 23 m | Show |
04-15-18 | Golden Knights v. Kings -140 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -140 | 3 h 57 m | Show |
04-15-18 | Jazz +4.5 v. Thunder | Top | 108-116 | Loss | -107 | 2 h 25 m | Show |
04-14-18 | Sharks v. Ducks -126 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -126 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
04-14-18 | Pelicans v. Blazers -5.5 | Top | 97-95 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
04-14-18 | Spurs v. Warriors -8 | Top | 92-113 | Win | 100 | 4 h 23 m | Show |
04-13-18 | Wild v. Jets OVER 5.5 | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 59 m | Show |
04-12-18 | Maple Leafs v. Bruins UNDER 6 | Top | 1-5 | Push | 0 | 3 h 48 m | Show |
04-11-18 | Flyers v. Penguins UNDER 6 | Top | 0-7 | Loss | -104 | 5 h 35 m | Show |
04-10-18 | Suns v. Mavs UNDER 209 | Top | 124-97 | Loss | -115 | 3 h 50 m | Show |
04-09-18 | Blazers +4.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 82-88 | Loss | -103 | 5 h 32 m | Show |
04-09-18 | Thunder v. Heat +4.5 | Top | 115-93 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 31 m | Show |
04-08-18 | Warriors -12 v. Suns | Top | 117-100 | Win | 100 | 3 h 22 m | Show |
04-06-18 | Bulls v. Celtics -8 | Top | 104-111 | Loss | -108 | 2 h 2 m | Show |
04-05-18 | Warriors v. Pacers UNDER 210 | Top | 106-126 | Loss | -104 | 1 h 2 m | Show |
04-03-18 | Hawks v. Heat -12.5 | Top | 98-101 | Loss | -109 | 2 h 44 m | Show |
04-02-18 | Michigan +7 v. Villanova | Top | 62-79 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 18 m | Show |
04-02-18 | Michigan v. Villanova UNDER 145.5 | Top | 62-79 | Win | 100 | 24 h 9 m | Show |
03-31-18 | Kansas +5 v. Villanova | Top | 79-95 | Loss | -104 | 26 h 17 m | Show |
03-31-18 | Kansas v. Villanova UNDER 155 | Top | 79-95 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 3 m | Show |
03-31-18 | Loyola-Chicago v. Michigan -5 | Top | 57-69 | Win | 100 | 24 h 6 m | Show |
03-30-18 | Pelicans +4.5 v. Cavs | Top | 102-107 | Loss | -111 | 4 h 41 m | Show |
03-30-18 | Illinois-Chicago v. Northern Colorado OVER 157.5 | Top | 71-76 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 30 m | Show |
03-29-18 | Penn State v. Utah +4.5 | Top | 82-66 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
03-28-18 | Mavs v. Lakers UNDER 216 | Top | 93-103 | Win | 100 | 5 h 23 m | Show |
03-28-18 | Illinois-Chicago v. Liberty -5 | Top | 67-51 | Loss | -102 | 2 h 22 m | Show |
03-27-18 | Mississippi State v. Penn State UNDER 136 | Top | 60-75 | Win | 100 | 8 h 35 m | Show |
03-27-18 | Cavs v. Heat +3 | Top | 79-98 | Win | 100 | 5 h 25 m | Show |
03-26-18 | North Texas v. San Francisco -3.5 | Top | 62-72 | Win | 100 | 26 h 30 m | Show |
03-26-18 | Sharks -145 v. Blackhawks | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 2 h 58 m | Show |
03-25-18 | Ducks v. Oilers UNDER 5.5 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 31 m | Show |
03-25-18 | Duke -2.5 v. Kansas | Top | 81-85 | Loss | -106 | 21 h 23 m | Show |
03-25-18 | Texas Tech v. Villanova UNDER 144.5 | Top | 59-71 | Win | 100 | 18 h 44 m | Show |
03-24-18 | Florida State v. Michigan -3.5 | Top | 54-58 | Win | 100 | 6 h 41 m | Show |
03-24-18 | Loyola-Chicago +1 v. Kansas State | Top | 78-62 | Win | 100 | 5 h 9 m | Show |
03-24-18 | Central Michigan v. Liberty -2.5 | Top | 71-84 | Win | 100 | 2 h 21 m | Show |
03-23-18 | Texas Tech +2 v. Purdue | Top | 78-65 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
03-23-18 | Clemson v. Kansas UNDER 143 | Top | 76-80 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
03-22-18 | Florida State v. Gonzaga -6 | Top | 75-60 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
03-22-18 | Texas A&M v. Michigan -2.5 | Top | 72-99 | Win | 100 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
03-21-18 | Utah v. St. Mary's -6.5 | Top | 67-58 | Loss | -106 | 7 h 22 m | Show |
03-21-18 | Jacksonville State v. North Texas +1 | Top | 68-90 | Win | 100 | 3 h 1 m | Show |
03-20-18 | Mississippi State v. Louisville OVER 144 | Top | 79-56 | Loss | -108 | 2 h 44 m | Show |
03-20-18 | Blue Jackets -138 v. Rangers | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 2 h 46 m | Show |
03-19-18 | Washington v. St. Mary's UNDER 143.5 | Top | 81-85 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 19 m | Show |
03-19-18 | LSU v. Utah -5 | Top | 71-95 | Win | 100 | 3 h 43 m | Show |
03-18-18 | Marshall v. West Virginia -12.5 | Top | 71-94 | Win | 100 | 7 h 48 m | Show |
03-18-18 | Syracuse v. Michigan State -8 | Top | 55-53 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 41 m | Show |
03-17-18 | Loyola-Chicago v. Tennessee UNDER 131 | Top | 63-62 | Win | 100 | 3 h 24 m | Show |
03-16-18 | Syracuse v. TCU -4.5 | Top | 57-52 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
03-15-18 | Montana +11 v. Michigan | Top | 47-61 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
03-15-18 | Wright State v. Tennessee UNDER 132 | Top | 47-73 | Win | 100 | 5 h 37 m | Show |
03-14-18 | Washington v. Boise State UNDER 148.5 | Top | 77-74 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
03-14-18 | Colgate v. San Francisco UNDER 140.5 | Top | 68-72 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
03-14-18 | Arizona State v. Syracuse +2 | Top | 56-60 | Win | 100 | 7 h 58 m | Show |
03-13-18 | Boston College v. Western Kentucky -5 | Top | 62-79 | Win | 100 | 4 h 28 m | Show |
03-13-18 | Long Island v. Radford UNDER 139 | Top | 61-71 | Win | 100 | 18 h 38 m | Show |
03-11-18 | Houston v. Cincinnati -4 | Top | 55-56 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 57 m | Show |
03-10-18 | USC +4 v. Arizona | Top | 61-75 | Loss | -107 | 4 h 30 m | Show |
03-10-18 | West Virginia v. Kansas +1.5 | Top | 70-81 | Win | 100 | 2 h 37 m | Show |
03-09-18 | San Diego State v. Nevada -2.5 | Top | 90-73 | Loss | -115 | 2 h 13 m | Show |
03-09-18 | Mississippi State v. Tennessee UNDER 133 | Top | 59-62 | Win | 100 | 2 h 24 m | Show |
03-09-18 | Providence v. Xavier -8 | Top | 75-72 | Loss | -104 | 1 h 24 m | Show |
03-09-18 | VCU v. Rhode Island -9 | Top | 67-76 | Push | 0 | 1 h 17 m | Show |
03-08-18 | San Diego State v. Fresno State UNDER 138 | Top | 64-52 | Win | 100 | 1 h 17 m | Show |
03-07-18 | Florida Atlantic +10 v. UAB | Top | 72-83 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 18 m | Show |
03-07-18 | Arkansas State v. Louisiana-Monroe -4 | Top | 54-76 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
03-06-18 | CS Sacramento v. Portland State -7.5 | Top | 67-71 | Loss | -106 | 4 h 6 m | Show |