09-22-22 |
Coastal Carolina v. Georgia State +2.5 |
Top |
41-24 |
Loss |
-110 |
15 h 18 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Georgia State Panthers (306) plus the points versus the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (305). THE SITUATION: Georgia State (0-3) lost their third straight game to start the season after their 42-41 upset loss at home to Charlotte despite being a 20-point favorite last Saturday. Coastal Carolina (3-0) remained undefeated this year after a 38-26 win against Buffalo as a 12-point favorite last week.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS PLUS THE POINTS: Expectations were very high for this Georgia State team that returned 15 starters from a group that finished 8-5 including a 51-20 victory against Ball State in the Camellia Bowl. The Panthers won seven of their last eight games to end the season with the team improving when head coach Shawn Elliott turned to former Furman transfer Darren Grainer at quarterback. Elliott has led this young program to three straight bowl games — and this may be his best roster yet in Atlanta. Georgia State does not shy away from difficult schedules — which explains two-thirds of their disappointing start this year. They opened the year in Columbia against South Carolina — and they outgained the Gamecocks but had two of their punts returned for a touchdown in the second half to blow that opportunity to pull the upset. We had them the next week at home against North Carolina — and they had a 28-21 lead late in the third quarter against the Tar Heels before letting the game slip away. They stayed at home to host a Charlotte team that, ironically, was the only team they beat in their first five games last year in a brutal early stretch of games against Army, at North Carolina, at Auburn, and home against Appalachian State. Frankly, the Panthers should have upset Auburn in their building last year. With this showdown against Coastal Carolina on deck, Georgia State was in a letdown sandwich situation where they risked being flat after disappointing results with a game on deck. But the Panthers have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after a loss by six points or less in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after losing two games in a row at home. Mental mistakes are holding this team back. Too penalties played a role last week as well as a 52-yard fumble recovery that the 49ers returned for a touchdown. Don’t blame the offense too much as they gained 602 total yards and outgained Charlotte by +101 net yards. Grainger completed 22 of 34 passes for 343 yards with four touchdowns and one interception while adding another 54 yards on the ground. The 49ers return Tucker Gregg and Jamyest Williams from a backfield that ranked eighth in the nation by averaging 226.4 rushing Yards-Per-Game — and they have improved on that mark this season by averaging 231 rushing YPG. They gained 259 rushing yards last week — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. Additionally, the Panthers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after gaining at least 475 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after passing for at least 280 yards. And while the defense gave up 401 passing yards last week, they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after giving up at least 325 passing yards in their last contest. Georgia State should be better on that side of the ball with nine of their top 11 tacklers on defense back from last year including three starters in their secondary. Coastal Carolina has looked shaky despite their unbeaten start to the season. They allowed 202 rushing yards on 5.2 Yards-Per-Carry in their opening game against Army — a concerning effort when now playing the Panthers' rushing attack. They were then outgained by Gardner Webb in a 32-27 victory despite being a 32.5-point favorite. Then last week against the Bulls, they entered the fourth quarter trailing by a 19-17 score before recovering a fumble that they returned for a 21-yard touchdown changed the momentum of that game. The Chanticleers are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up win. And while they forced four turnovers last week, they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after forcing at least three turnovers in their last contest. Coastal Carolina is led by their third-year starting quarterback, Grayson McCall, who is the two-time reigning Sun Belt Conference Player of the Year. But after 19 starters were back last year for their second-straight 11-win season, the team lost tons of talent on both sides of the ball for this year. On offense, McCall lost 161 receptions accounting for 2645 yards and 24 touchdowns including tight end Isaiak Likely who is developing into the third receiving option already for the Baltimore Ravens. The Chanticleers also lost a 1000-yard rusher in Shermari Jones to graduation and three starters on the offensive line. The defense lost their top-five tacklers — and the linebackers lost five of their top six from last year and seven of the top nine defensive backs. Fifth-year head coach Jamey Chadwell did his best to fortify the roster from the transfer portal but this is a young program as well that just finished a peak cycle. And don’t underestimate the importance of this team only losing six starts to injury last year which helped produce that 11-2 campaign. Now the depth issues for this program get exposed with just seven starters back. They are running the ball in 65% of their snaps — but they only rank 71st in Rushing Success Rate. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in conference play — and they are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games against teams with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: This Georgia State handed the Chanticleers one of their two losses last year — but McCall did miss that game with an injury. But this is a veteran Panthers team with 10 sixth-year super seniors back this year taking advantage of the COVID free-year of eligibility — and they must win this game to save their season. Georgia State has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games in conference play. Getting Coastal Carolina on a short week will help because their identity is to win in the trenches on both sides of the ball. 25* CFB Sun Belt Conference Game of the Month with the Georgia State Panthers (306) plus the points versus the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (305). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-19-22 |
Vikings v. Eagles OVER 49.5 |
Top |
7-24 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 43 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (291) and the Philadelphia Eagles (292). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (1-0) comes off a 23-7 victory at home against Green Bay as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday. Philadelphia (1-0) defeated the Lions in Detroit last Sunday by a 38-35 score as a 6-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Kirk Cousins completed 23 of 32 passes for 277 yards with two touchdown passes and no interceptions in the victory against the Packers last week. He seems to be more comfortable under new head coach Kevin O’Connell who was his quarterback coach in Washington in 2017.
|
09-18-22 |
Bears v. Packers UNDER 43 |
Top |
10-27 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 40 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (287) and the Green Bay Packers (288). THE SITUATION: Chicago (1-0) won their opener with a 19-10 upset win against San Francisco as a 6.5-point favorite last Sunday. Green Bay looks to rebound from their 23-7 loss at Minnesota as a 2.5-point underdog last week.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Packers should be more effective on offense this week after Aaron Rodgers was ineffective in his first game playing without his security blanket Davante Adams. But Rodgers is clearly not comfortable with the two rookies the team drafted, Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs, and he does not have the same confidence in veterans like Sammie Watkins or Randall Cobb as he did with Adams. Unlike Patrick Mahomes who had his group of wide receivers spend time with him in Fort Worth, Texas to bond and develop some passing chemistry with him, Rodgers did whatever he does in the offseason that is away from football. His tough-love approach to freeze out Watson after he dropped a likely touchdown pass from a bomb from Rodgers in his first target in the game was not the best way to nurture his confidence. The passing game is going to be a work in progress for the Packers for a while. Green Bay’s formula for success will be to run the football behind Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon — and for Rodgers to continue their touches in the passing game. Expect longer possessions from them tonight as they burn the clock. But the Packers need to play better on defense after they allowed the Vikings to generate 6.5 Yards-Per-Play and 395 total yards against them. The Green Bay defense should be a strength after they drafted two of the hot shots from the Georgia defense in the first round of the NFL draft, defensive tackle Devonte Wyatt and linebacker Quan Walker, to help a group that ranked ninth in the league by allowing 328.2 Yards-Per-Game. The Packers have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a loss by 14 or more points. They have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. Kirk Cousins passed for 269 yards against them — just under 50 passing YPG above their season average last year. But Green Bay has played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. Chicago only gained 204 yards last week in their upset win against the 49ers. That mark along with their 3.8 Yards-Per-Play average was the lowest offensive numbers in the league last week. The Bears have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after an upset win as an underdog. They have also played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The second-year quarterback completed 8 of 17 passes for 121 yards dealing with the rainstorm conditions in the south of Chicago during that game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not passing for more than 150 yards in their last contest. He lacks reliable weapons in the passing game outside of wide receiver Darnell Mooney. But expect more solid defensive efforts from this team moving forward under a defensive head coach in Matt Eberflus who inherited a defense that ranked sixth in the NFL by allowing 316.7 total Yards-Per-Game. The Bears have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total in the first month of the season. Chicago has played 37 of their last 58 road games Under the Total as an underdog getting 7.5 to 14 points — and Green Bay has played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total when favored.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams last played on December 12th when Green Bay won by a 45-30 score at Lambeau Field in a game that Fields was under center for the Bears. Packers defensive coordinator Joe Barry can use that game tape to slow down Fields this time around. The Packers did respond to their 38-3 loss to New Orleans in the opener last year by returning home to Lambeau where they crushed Detroit by a 35-17 score — but he had Adams in that game who caught eight of his nine targets for 121 receiving yards. Rodgers is going to continue to eye-roll at his wide receivers failing him tonight because he wants the world to know that it is not his fault (it never is) — so expect more offensive drives that settle for field goals rather than five touchdowns. 25* NFC North Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (287) and the Green Bay Packers (288). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-18-22 |
Patriots -2.5 v. Steelers |
Top |
17-14 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (275) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (276). THE SITUATION: New England (0-1) looks to rebound from their 20-7 loss in Miami to the Dolphins as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. Pittsburgh (1-0) comes off a 23-20 upset victory in overtime at Cincinnati as a 7.5-point underdog last week.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS PLUS THE POINTS: New England fell behind early and went into halftime trailing by a 17-0 score. One of those Dolphins’ touchdowns came from a fumble recovery on the Patriots' 2-yard line that they scooped a returned into the end zone. New England had a -3 net turnover margin. It was a disappointing effort — and the critics of Bill Belichick were quick to use this first game as evidence that he is past his prime. Look, I’m not a fan of Matt Patricia — but his impact as the team’s offensive coordinator is overblown. Belichick started as a wide receiver’s coach in the 70s. Los Angeles Rams defensive coordinator Raheem Morris coached the offensive side of the ball when on the Atlanta Falcons’ staff during the Dan Quinn era. Coaches like Belichick simply think that “coaching is coaching” — and that a defensive coach moving to the other side of the ball is akin to a prosecutor moving into private practice as a defense attorney. It is simply too early to pass judgment — especially when Belichick has declared on many occasions that he does not finish the installation of the offense each season until the end of September. So, let’s not overreact. New England has often struggled when playing at Miami. Tom Brady lost ten of his eighteen starts on the road against the Dolphins when playing for the Patriots. In those ten losses, New England scored just 17.5 Points-Per-Game and averaged 293.5 total Yards-Per-Game. In Brady’s trip to Miami in 2006, the Dolphins shut him out while holding him to 189 total yards. For the record, the Patriots finished 12-4 that season before losing to Peyton Manning’s Indianapolis Colts in the AFC Championship Game. New England only ran the ball 22 times against the Dolphins — and the strength of this team will be them running the ball and leaning on their outstanding defense. The Patriots were second in the league by allowing 17.8 PPG. Belichick is not receiving enough credit for leading his team into the playoffs last year with a rookie quarterback. They outscored their opponents by +9.4 PPG with them generating 27.2 PPG and ranking 15th in the NFL by averaging 353.4 total YPG. It is telling that despite all the naysayers about this team this week, the bookies still list New England as the road favorite for this game. The Patriots have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games after a double-digit loss to a divisional rival. And while they held the Dolphins to just 65 rushing yards, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 75 rushing yards in their last game. Additionally, New England has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in Week Two of the regular season under Belichick — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when favored. We were on Pittsburgh last week — and it was great to see them benefit from a +5 net turnover margin including a 31-yard interception return for a touchdown. The Steelers got outgained by -165 net yards. It was a huge win for this team — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after an upset victory as an underdog. Pittsburgh has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a victory by seven points or less. The Steelers only gained 267 yards of offense with quarterback Mitchell Trubisky averaging just 5.1 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game. They allowed the Bengals to gain 432 total yards — and not only have they failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing 400 or more yards in their last game but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after getting outgained by at least 100 yards in their last contest. Now Pittsburgh returns home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a losing record on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games with the Total set in the 38.5 to 42 point range. Furthermore, the Steelers will be without T.J. Watt who is on Injured Reserve after tearing his pectoral muscle last week.
FINAL TAKE: While Belichick tends to struggle on the road against the Dolphins, he has a great track record when coaching against Tomlin. New England has beaten Pittsburgh in five of their last six meetings with the average score being 30-18.7 — they have a +68 net point differential in those six games. The Patriots have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 trips to Pittsburgh. The last time New England began the season 0-2 was in 2001 which happens to the season Brady took over as the team’s quarterback. 25* AFC Game of the Month with the New England Patriots (275) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-17-22 |
Fresno State +11.5 v. USC |
Top |
17-45 |
Loss |
-110 |
16 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 10:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Fresno State Bulldogs (201) plus the points versus the USC Trojans (202). THE SITUATION: Fresno State (1-1) looks to bounce back from a 35-32 loss at home to Oregon State as a 1-point underdog last Saturday. USC (2-0) is undefeated so far this season after their 41-28 victory at Stanford as a 10-point favorite last week.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS PLUS THE POINTS: USC has declared their program back to national prominence after following up their 66-14 victory against Rice two weeks ago with a 41-28 win at Stanford last week. First-year head coach Lincoln Riley was not saying anything to tap the breaks on all the accolades that have been offered to him in the interviews I saw of him this week. But this is the biggest test the Trojans will have so far this season against a Bulldogs team with a senior quarterback who will be drafted into the NFL. The Cardinal program has taken a step back in the last few seasons — so big wins against Rice and them are just not that big a deal. As it is, USC has failed to cover the point seeped in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. Furthermore, the Trojans have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. Sophomore quarterback Caleb Williams who came over with Riley from Oklahoma completed 20 of 27 passes for 341 yards with four touchdowns last week — but USC is just 10-22-1 ATS in their last 33 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Riley developed a reputation for having his teams underperform in critical games when he was coaching the Sooners. The Trojans led Rice at halftime by a 31-14 score before taking a 35-14 halftime lead last week — but Riley’s teams have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after enjoying a two-touchdown lead or better in two straight games. The underlying numbers suggest that this team may soon get a visit from the Regression Gods. USC has enjoyed a +8 net turnover margin this year — despite the expected turnover margin being just +2.5. The bouncing ball from fumbles and tipped passes tends to even out over time. Stanford turned the ball over twice inside the Trojans’ 5-yard line last week — and while the Trojans had a +4 net turnover margin in that game, the expected turnover margin was just +1.6. USC has intercepted six balls despite only having seven pass breakups — and the metrics indicate that teams get one interception per four pass breakups. The Trojans host this game where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games against non-conference opponents. Fresno State has 15 starters back from the team that finished 10-3 last year with a victory against UTEP in the New Mexico Bowl by a 31-24 score. The Bulldogs are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 games after a straight-up loss. And while they generated 492 yards against the Beavers last week, they have covered the point spread in 31 of their last 42 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. Senior quarterback Jake Haener completed 29 of 45 passes for 360 yards in a losing effort. He has an elite group of wide receivers led by Jalen Cropper and Josh Kelly. Haener is a gunslinger who will be able to move the ball against this USC defense that allowed 5.5 Yards-Per-Play and 441 total yards against Stanford. And the Bulldogs should have success running the football. Led by running backs Jordan Mims and Malik Sherrod who combined to average 5.9 Yards-Per-Carry, Fresno State ranks seventh in the nation in Rushing Success Rate. Despite Rice and Stanford being suspect running teams last year, both those teams averaged 6.8 Yards-Per-Carry in non-sack rushing attempts this season — and the Trojans rank 119th in opponent’s Rushing Success Rate. The Bulldogs are 22-8-1 ATS in their last 31 games on the road — and they have covered 4 straight road games against teams with a winning record at home. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against Pac-12 opponents.
FINAL TAKE: Fresno State will be very motivated to make a statement against the biggest in-state program. They upset UCLA by a 40-37 score in Los Angeles last season with Haener having a big day. USC has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when favored by 10.5 to 21 points. 25* CFB Fox-TV Game of the Month with the Fresno State Bulldogs (201) plus the points versus the USC Trojans (202). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-17-22 |
UTSA +13 v. Texas |
Top |
20-41 |
Loss |
-110 |
15 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the University of Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners (193) plus the points versus the Texas Longhorns (194). THE SITUATION: UTSA (1-1) looks to rebound from their 41-38 upset loss in overtime at Army last Saturday as a 2-point favorite. Texas (1-1) comes off a 20-19 loss at home to Alabama as a 21-point underdog last week.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ROADRUNNERS PLUS THE POINTS: Once again, Texas has declared themselves “back” as a national power — this time this proclamation is being made despite not winning their last game. Admittedly, the Longhorns played their best game on defense in a long time — but that may speak more to the state of the Crimson Tide’s offensive line and talent at wide receiver than it does regarding the Texas defense that ranked 100th in the nation last year by allowing 425.6 total Yards-Per-Game. For a defensive unit that was called out last year for not playing hard, coming off a “successful” setback to now host a Group of Five opponent might be a recipe for disaster. As it is, the Longhorns have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after losing their last game. Second-year head coach Steve Sarkisian has been anointed as a brilliant leader more than one time — only to find another way to fail. After the chaos under his watch as the head coach at USC, he was given another chance as the offensive coordinator for the Atlanta Falcons before taking the same job at Alabama under Nick Saban. He took over the Texas program last year after Tom Herman, the previous “savior” who “resurrected the program to national stature” after beating Georgia in the 2020 Sugar Bowl to complete a four-loss season, was fired after four seasons. Despite having 15 starters back, the Longhorns settled for their first losing season in five seasons after the team lost six in a row in the second half of the season. Off-the-field chaos continued to follow Sarkisian — and the team lost at home to Kansas. But forget all that. A win against UL-Monroe before the “triumph” of losing to Alabama in a close game changes everything … once again. Concerns remain from last week’s game. Texas only rushed for 79 yards on 33 carries despite having junior phenom Bijan Robinson who is now dealing with an injury that may slow him down in this game. They are 8-18-1 ATS in their last 27 games after not rushing for at least 100 yards in their last game. The bigger news is that freshman Quinn Ewers suffered a broken clavicle that will keep him out for four to six weeks. Redshirt sophomore Hudson Card gets the start for this game after he came on in relief to complete 14 of 22 passes for 158 yards. But he is dealing with a nagging ankle injury that might limit his mobility which is central to his skill set. Card was benched after the section game last year because he was lacking in pocket presence. His confidence could easily get shot if this becomes a close game. UTSA is a very dangerous opponent. The reigning Conference USA champions return 13 starters from the team that finished 12-2 last year. This group is already battle-tested with both of their games this season going to overtime after losing their opening game against Houston despite outgaining them by 101 net yards. The Roadrunners then outgained the Black Knights last week by 28 net yards in pulling out that win. UTSA has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a point spread win. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game — and after gaining 513 yards against the solid Army defense, they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games after generating at least 450 yards in their last game. Defense is a concern for this team after they allowed 485 yards last week — but they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. The Roadrunners have a sixth-year senior at quarterback with plenty of experience in Frank Harris. He is having an outstanding season. He is averaging 348 passing Yards-Per-Game with six touchdown passes to one interception — and he is adding 46.5 rushing YPG. UTSA has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games in September.
FINAL TAKE: While Texas just played their proverbial “Super Bowl” last week, this is the Roadrunners’ big opportunity to make a statement now. This is the first time that UTSA will be playing at Texas Memorial Stadium as they make the 80-mile trip north from San Antonio to Austin. This team will not be intimidated. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against non-conference opponents under third-year head coach Jeff Traylor — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games on turf where their team speed on offense can be better deployed. 25* CFB Underdog of the Month with the University of Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners (193) plus the points versus the Texas Longhorns (194). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-16-22 |
Yankees v. Brewers +1.5 |
Top |
6-7 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Milwaukee Brewers (930) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the New York Yankees (929) listing both starting pitchers Adrian Houser and Frankie Montas. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (76-67) had their three-game winning streak snapped in their 4-1 loss at St. Louis on Wednesday. New York (87-56) has won four in a row after their 5-3 victory at Boston on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BREWERS PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: The Yankees have steadied the ship after a listless August — but they have lost 13 of their last 17 games on the road after winning two in a row against a divisional rival. But New York’s bullpen has logged in 16 innings in their last three games with at least four innings pitched in each of those games — and they have lost 5 of their last 6 games when their bullpen has pitched at least four innings in three straight games. The Yankees stay on the road where they have lost 13 of their last 16 games on the road — and they have lost 14 of their last 18 road games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. Additionally, New York has lost 6 of their last 8 games in Interleague play — and they have lost 5 in a row on the road against National League teams. They give the ball to Montas who has a 5-12 record with a 3.89 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in 26 starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home for the Yankees and previously with Oakland before being traded over at the trade deadline. Montas has a 3.11 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .239 batting average in 15 home starts — but those numbers rise to a 5.26 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .264 in his 11 starts on the road. In his nine starts since the All-Star Break, he has a 5.28 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .292. His teams have lost 7 of their last 9 games on the road with him on the mound with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range. Montas’ teams have also lost 10 of their last 12 games when he is pitching and priced in the +/- 125 range. Milwaukee has won 13 of their last 16 home games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have won 11 of their last 16 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Brewers were upset in their game on the road against the Cardinals with Corbin Burnes on the hill — and they have won 18 of their last 28 games after an upset loss to an NL Central rival. They have won 5 of their last 6 games after scoring no more than one run in a loss to a divisional rival. Milwaukee has won 4 of their last 5 games after a loss — and they have won 7 of their last 10 games after an off day. They return home where they have won 7 of their last 8 home games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. They have won 13 of their last 16 games against teams from the American League — and they have won 6 straight home games in Interleague play. They counter with Houser who has a 6-9 record with a 4.61 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP in 19 games (18 starts). The right-hander has a 3.21 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and a .223 opponent’s batting average in his nine games at home as opposed to his 6.14 ERA, 1.68 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .285 on the road. In his two starts this month, Houser has a 2-0 record with a 1.64 ERA and a 0.64 WHIP. The Brewers have won 9 of their last 14 games with Houser on the hill priced as a money-line underdog priced up to +150.
FINAL TAKE: These are all reasons to take Milwaukee as an underdog with the money-line (which is fine) — but with the valuable +1.5 Run-Line priced at -150 in many locations, that is my preferred option to take advantage of this situation. The Yankees have failed to cover the -1.5 Run-Line in 8 of their last 12 games when priced as a money-line favorite at -125 or higher. 25* MLB Run-Line Underdog of the Month with the Milwaukee Brewers (930) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the New York Yankees (929) listing both starting pitchers Adrian Houser and Frankie Montas. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-15-22 |
Chargers v. Chiefs UNDER 54.5 |
Top |
24-27 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (103) and the Kansas City Chiefs (104). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (1-0) began the regular season with a 24-19 victory against Las Vegas as a 4.5-point favorite on Sunday. Kansas City (1-0) opened the season with a 44-21 win at Arizona as a 6.5-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chargers flexed their muscles on defense by holding the Raiders to just 320 yards of total offense. Linebacker Khalil Mack looked rejuvenated in a Chargers uniform after being signed in the offseason from Chicago. He joined linebacker Joey Bosa to combine for 16 hits on Las Vegas quarterback Derek Carr. I am expecting a significant bump in the play of this Los Angeles defense in the second season under head coach Brandon Staley. The team hopes to have free agent cornerback J.C. Jackson take the field tonight after he missed Sunday’s game with an ankle injury. The former New England star is one of the best cover corners in the league. The Chargers have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a win by six points or less. They have also played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total in September. The LA offense was not dynamic last week against the Raiders as they only gained 355 total yards — down more than 35 yards from their season average last year. They did control time of possession for 32:32 minutes in that game which will probably be their formula tonight. Wide receiver Keenan Allen has been declared out with a hamstring injury which will make Mike Williams the primary option and elevate Joshua Palmer into the starting lineup. Losing Allen is significant since Williams had seven drops last year and Palmer lacks down-the-field speed. Allen is the glue to this group. With the addition of Sony Michel who was cut by Miami, look for the Chargers to run the ball more with a rotation of Austin Ekeler, Joshua Kelley, Isaiah Spiller, and Michel. I definitely expect Staley to have his defense play a two-high safety zone that frustrated Patrick Mahomes last season. Inexplicably the Cardinals opted to play a single high safety and bring the blitz early and often against Mahomes last week. I like Arizona defensive coordinator Vance Joseph — but I would sure like to hear his rationale for bypassing the two high safeties and opting to blitz on 53% of the Chiefs’ dropbacks. Mahomes punishes the blitz. Opposing defenses found success against him by playing that two-high safety zone defense that takes away the deep ball. Now I do believe Mahomes put himself in a much better position than say, Aaron Rodgers, to be patient and take what the defense will give him this season in the first year without Tyreek Hill. The Chiefs generated 33 first downs and controlled the clock for 34:42 minutes in their easy win against the Cardinals. Mahomes had a fantastic statistical afternoon — going 30 of 39 for 360 yards with five touchdown passes — but the drives were not as quick-strike without Hill. And, hey, what do ya know? The defense benefited from the long drives as they held Kyler Murray and the Arizona offense to just 282 total yards. Kansas City has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit win on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after gaining at least 24 first downs while having the offense on the field for at least 34 minutes in their last previous game. The Chiefs ranked 8th in the NFL last year by allowing 21.4 Points-Per-Game — and they performed much better when they acquired Melvin Ingram midseason which allowed them to move Chris Jones back to defensive tackle. While Ingram is now gone, they drafted Purdue’s disruptive defensive tackle George Karlaftis in the first round to replace him and keep Jones at his preferred inside position. Additionally, Kansas City kicker (and fantasy gem) Harrison Butker is out for this game — they activated Matt Ammendola from the practice squad to kick field goals and extra points (which does not hurt our case for the Under).
FINAL TAKE: Both games between these two teams had at least 54 combined points scored — so I understand the arguments for the Over. But Staley is leaning-in to light boxes to defend against the pass which begs opposing offenses to run the ball. The Chargers allowed opponents to average 5.5 Yards-Per-Carry against their light boxes last year. I expect Kansas City to have success on offense — but with long drives and less explosiveness. It does not take much in the game script to get off the pace to finish Over 54 points. And then when you add the short week for both teams and my expectation that Staley calms down on his zeal to go for it on every fourth down, look for a lower-scoring game than expected. 25* AFC West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (103) and the Kansas City Chiefs (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-12-22 |
Broncos v. Seahawks +7 |
Top |
16-17 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 53 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (482) plus the points versus the Denver Broncos (481). THE SITUATION: Seattle (0-0) begins the post-Russell Wilson era coming off a 7-10 season. Denver (0-0) begins their Russell Wilson era after finishing 7-10 last year.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Many pundits consider the Broncos as a Super Bowl favorite after their heavy investment in Wilson as their franchise quarterback. Yet this is a flawed football team that has endured five-straight losing seasons. There are depth concerns at wide receiver after Tim Patrick suffered a season-ending injury in the preseason. Wilson is getting a downgrade at wide receiver after enjoying the talents of Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf. Jerry Jeudy did not have a touchdown pass last year and Courtland Sutton has failed to seize the mantle as a number one receiver for this team. The Denver defense is overrated with good frontline numbers bolstered by a ball control offense. The Broncos' offense under head coach Vic Fangio ranked 5th in the league by averaging 29.45 seconds per play last year. Their opponent’s average starting position was on the 26.0-yard line, the second-best mark in the league. Denver ranked 3rd in the NFL by allowing only 18.9 Points-Per-Game but they also lead the league by holding their opponents to just 16.2 drives per game. They ranked 8th in total defense — but the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders ranked their defense as 20th in the league which is probably a more accurate measure as to what to expect this season. Now a rookie head coach takes over the team with first-time offensive and defensive coordinators. Maybe this team makes a deep playoff run — but at the very least I expect some growing pains. Maybe Nathaniel Hackett will be an instant success — but I remain puzzled how he is the boy genius as the Green Bay offensive coordinator who gets none of the blame for the Packers' postseason issues while all the blame goes to Aaron Rodgers and head coach Matt LaFleur. Seems pretty convenient — and Sutton and Jeudy were innocent victims of bad quarterback play. And, of course, Russell Wilson is the only reason why Seattle enjoyed nine-straight winning seasons with Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll holding him back from even more success because he simply would not “let him cook.” To buy into the Denver hype, one must be willing to assess all blame elsewhere. I’m skeptical that it is that simple. If Wilson has lost a step with his mobility and has to rely more on his dropback skills, he may not be quite as good as he was in the past. His size prohibits him from making certain throws on the field. That is not a death knell — Drew Brees was quite effective even in the latter years of his career. But Wilson does not have Brees’ accuracy. Wilson tends to not see open receivers and can be too “all-or-nothing.” Maybe that changes with a better offensive line — but he is adjusting to a new system. Yes, Wilson had input in the offense to have it tailored to his expectations — but that was exactly what we heard last year when Carroll hired Shane Waldron as his offensive coordinator from the Los Angeles Rams (Sean McVay! Sean McVay!). As it is, Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road when favored. And in their last 6 games on Monday Night Football, the Broncos are 1-4-1 ATS. Seattle needed the influx of young talent after years of decline in the quality on the roster. Wilson’s big contract did not help the organization’s ability to manage the salary cap. The Seahawks had their first top-ten draft pick in a decade in the spring — and they brought in several rookies who will make an impact tonight. Seattle had 9.3 wins using the Pythagorean model — so this was probably a better team than their 7-10 record suggests. They lost five of their eight games decided by one scoring possession. They outscored their opponents by +1.7 Points-Per-Game. Yes, moving to Geno Smith at quarterback is a downgrade to Wilson with the team likely to draft a rookie in the first round to become their franchise quarterback next year. But Smith did have a Passer Rating of 103.0 last year as compared to Wilson’s 103.1 Passer Rating (albeit playing through an injury). What Smith does offer is the elimination of any pressure to force the passing game to make the quarterback happy as has been the case in the past. Seattle is going to run the football and attempt to control time of possession — the formula that helped Denver produce their good defensive numbers in the past. Rashaad Penny rushed for 671 yards with seven touchdowns in his final seven games last year — and he averaged +2.1 yards-per-carry above the metrics expected yards-per-carry. The offensive line has been significantly upgraded with free agent Austin Blythe from Kansas City at center and two early draft picks in Charles Cross and Abraham Lucas joining the mix. The defense will be better simply by being on the field less. While the offense averaged only 56.1 plays per game, the defense was on the field for 70.6 plays per game. That -14.5 net difference was the 4th worst in the NFL since 1950. It is that dynamic that Carroll gets to address with Wilson gone. No, this is not a Super Bowl team — but the rebuild begins and this defense shapes up to be sneaky better than expected. The Seahawks have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games as an underdog. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range.
FINAL TAKE: Wilson will feel some pressure returning to Lumen Field — and he is the one with Super Bowl expectations. Seattle has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in September — and no one knows Wilson better than Carroll who has had the entire offseason to prepare to defend against his former quarterback. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month with the Seattle Seahawks (482) plus the points versus the Denver Broncos (481). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-11-22 |
Bucs -1.5 v. Cowboys |
Top |
19-3 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (479) minus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (480). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (0-0) comes off a 13-4 season after losing at home to the Los Angeles Rams by a 30-27 score in the NFC divisional round of the playoffs. Dallas (0-0) lost in the NFC wildcard round in a 23-17 loss at home to San Francisco.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS MINUS THE POINTS: Tampa Bay has significant offensive line issues after former Pro Bowler Ali Marpet retired in the offseason and then center Ryan Jensen got injured during the preseason. But the Buccaneers still have All-Pro Tristan Wirfs at right tackle — and they signed Shaq Mason from New England to replace Market at guard in the offseason. Tampa Bay’s starting offensive line should still be fine — the bigger problem is the lack of any margin for error when it comes to injury since the depth has been depleted. It certainly helps to have Tom Brady under center who not only is one of the best ever with his footwork in his pocket but also has the veteran savvy to manage a pass rush. Brady missed much of the preseason for his mysterious mid-camp “sabbatical” — but the reports out of camp were that he was quite good in his abbreviated time with the team. This is a redemption season for Brady and this team after they seemed to lose focus last year after winning the Super Bowl. The Bucs were flat in the first half when hosting the Rams in the playoffs before almost pulling off a big rally in the second half. The sting of that loss and the reset this organization made by elevating Todd Bowles from defensive coordinator to their head coach should motivate this team. Brady will not have wide receiver Chris Godwin tonight — but he still has a loaded wide receiver room that added Julio Jones and Russell Gage in the offseason along with tight end Kyle Rudolph to complement Mike Evans and Scottie Miller. The Buccaneers’ defense should be outstanding after ranking 5th in the league by allowing 20.8 Points-Per-Game. Injuries played a role in their Super Bowl hangover last year — but this team still outscored their opponents by +9.3 Points-Per-Game. Tampa Bay has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against NFC opponents. The Buccaneers have also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. Dallas has even more troubling offensive line issues. Left tackle Tyron Smith injured his hamstring in the preseason which will keep him out indefinitely — and the Cowboys have historically seen a significant dip in their scoring output when Smith is not available. Frankly, quarterback Dan Prescott is likely playing behind the worst offensive line since being drafted by Dallas. His early success with the team came with him playing behind one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. Only right guard Zack Martin remains from those units (with Smith injured). They cut right tackle La’El Collins in the offseason. The Cowboys will be relying on rookie first-round draft pick Tyler Smith at left tackle — but he committed 12 penalties in his 12 starts for Tulsa last year. Jason Peters may eventually be their left tackle after he was signed off the street — but the 40-year-old is on the practice squad getting into shape. The Dallas wide receiver room lost two key contributors in Amari Cooper and Cedric Wilson in the offseason — and they will not have the injured Michael Gallup for this game. The Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 home games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and the Buccaneers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. In Brady, I Trust for this one. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (479) minus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (480). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-10-22 |
North Carolina v. Georgia State +7 |
Top |
35-28 |
Push |
0 |
1 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Georgia State Panthers (322) plus the points versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (321). THE SITUATION: Georgia State (0-1) looks to bounce back from a 35-14 loss at South Carolina as a 12-point underdog last Saturday. North Carolina (2-0) survived a 63-61 upset win at Appalachian State as a 3.5-point underdog last week.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Tar Heels were very fortunate to leave Boone, North Carolina with a victory last week. The Mountaineers missed a two-point conversion at the end of the game that would have forced overtime. Not only did the Tar Heels get outgained by 82 net yards, but they also surrendered a whopping 649 yards in that game with Appalachian State scoring an incredible 40 points in the fourth quarter alone. Fourth-year head coach Mack Brown brought in Gene Chizik as his new defensive coordinator to fix a defense that ranked 94th in the nation by allowing 418.0 total Yards-Per-Game last year. It is safe to say that remains a work in progress. The 11 starters that returned from last year’s team that settled for a 6-7 record may have learned the wrong lesson last week. They stay on the road this week to play another Sun Belt Conference team who they crushed by 32 points last year — so they may not be completely focused with a bye on deck before a showdown with Notre Dame. As it is, the Tar Heels have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a point spread victory. This team has not fared well after playing a wild high-scoring game. North Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after playing a game where both teams scored 30 or more points. They did gain 567 yards last week — and they have averaged 8.85 and 9.45 Yards-Per-Play in their first two games. But the Tar Heels have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after generating at least 6.25 YPP in two straight games. Their defense is a big problem — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. Furthermore, North Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road games when favored. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against non-conference opponents — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a losing record. Georgia State should have a chip on their shoulder for this game after losing to an SEC opponent last week in a game that was much closer than the final score indicated. The Panthers outgained the Gamecocks by a 311-306 margin but had two punts blocked in the second half that were returned for touchdowns. Georgia State opened the game by driving inside South Carolina’s 10-yard line before turning the ball over on downs. The Gamecocks also nailed two field goals from beyond 50 yards. But this is a resilient team under head coach Shawn Elliott in his sixth year with the program. The Panthers won seven of their last eight games last year — including a 51-20 victory against Ball State in the Camellia Bowl — to finish the season with an 8-5 record. Fourteen starters return from that group including senior quarterback Darren Grainger. Georgia State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss by 20 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game. And while last week’s game finished Under the 55-point Total, the Panthers have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after playing an Under in their previous game. They should have success running the football against a Tar Heels defense that allowed Appalachian State to generate 6.7 Yards-Per-Carry. Georgia State has four starters back and their top two rushers from last year, Tucker Gregg and Jamyest Williams, from an offense that was 8th in the nation by averaging 226.4 rushing YPG. Grainger is a mobile quarterback who ran for 660 yards last season and who gained 43 yards on the ground last week. The Panthers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: Georgia State will not be intimidated by hosting a Power-Five team this afternoon. The Panthers outgained a Gamecocks team last week that soundly defeated the Tar Heels in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl by a 38-21 score last season. Georgia State upset Tennessee in Knoxville in 2019 — and they played Auburn tough on the road last season before losing by a 34-24 score. The Panthers will have revenge on their minds as well after getting embarrassed in Chapel Hill to the Tar Heels by a 59-17 score. That game was played early in the season before Grainger took over as the starting quarterback which helped turn their season around. 25* CFB Saturday ESPNU Game of the Month with the Georgia State Panthers (322) plus the points versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (321). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-03-22 |
Notre Dame v. Ohio State -13.5 |
Top |
10-21 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 53 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Ohio State Buckeyes (172) minus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (171). THE SITUATION: Ohio State (0-0) returns 12 starters from their team that finished 11-2 after beating Utah in the Rose Bowl by a 48-45 score. Notre Dame (0-0) has 15 starters back from a team that finished 11-2 after a 37-35 loss to Oklahoma State in the Fiesta Bowl.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKEYES MINUS THE POINTS: Ohio State enters this season chippy after losing to Michigan last year and missing the College Football Playoff. Six starters are back on offense from a unit that led the nation by scoring 45.7 Points-Per-Game and 531.5 total Yards-Per-Game. Sophomore quarterback C.J. Stroud erased any doubt if the Buckeyes’ offense would slow down after the departures of Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson in the Rose Bowl — he completed 37 of 46 passes for a whopping 573 yards with six touchdown passes and one interception despite those star wide receivers opting out of that game. Stroud shredded a strong Utah defense under head coach Kyle Whittingham. Sophomore Jaxon Smith-Njigba demonstrated he could handle the top dog responsibilities at wide receiver by catching 15 balls for 347 yards and three touchdowns. Ohio State also returns running back TreVeyon Henderson who ran for 1248 yards and 15 touchdowns last year. Henderson forced 50 missed tackles on his 183 carries. The Buckeyes' offense is going to be just fine. And their defense should be much improved with nine of their top ten tacklers back from a group that allowed 22.8 PPG, ranking 38th in the nation. Fourth-year head coach Jason Day tapped one of the best defensive coordinators in the nation Jim Knowles to come to Columbus to upgrade the defense. Ohio State had the top statistical defense in 2019 while serving as a pipeline into the NFL — so their decline the last two seasons maybe just a product of regression after so much attrition. The Buckeyes are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games in September. Notre Dame is full of optimism under first-year head coach Marcus Freeman — but the 36-year-old may experience growing pains in learning these new responsibilities. He was the Irish’s head coach in the Fiesta Bowl when they blew a 28-7 first-half lead. Eight starters return on defense from a group that ranked 15th in the nation by allowing just 19.7 PPG — but they fall to 43rd in the country in giving up 359.5 total YPG so this may be an overrated group that got exposed by the Cowboys in the bowl game. The loss of safety Kyle Hamilton to the NFL will really hurt. On offense, Freeman has tapped sophomore Tyler Buchner as his starting quarterback. He is a dual-threat QB who too often wanted to run the ball in his time on the field last season. Accuracy is an issue for him — as well as three interceptions in his 35 pass attempts. To compete with the Buckeyes, he will need to be productive with the passing game — and that is a skill set he has yet to demonstrate at a high level. He does have the best tight end in the nation in All-American Michael Mayer — but the Irish lack explosive talent at wide receiver to complement his skills. Senior Avery Davis is out the year with a torn ACL. Perhaps sophomore Lorenzo Styles has a breakout season? It is the lack of skill position talent that played a role in Brian Kelly defecting to LSU before the bowl game. And it is this perpetual lack of top-end talent that explains why Notre Dame tends to fall flat against elite competition after beating up on their usual schedule of Purdue, Navy, and Boston College. The Fighting Irish have lost ten straight games on the road against top-ten teams with an average losing margin of -16.4 PPG. They have lost 11 games in a row on the road against top-five opponents with an average losing margin of -19.6 PPG — and seven of those losses were by 17 or more points. Notre Dame just seems to hit a ceiling against the best teams in the nation. They lost at home to Cincinnati by a 24-13 score last year. They lost 34-10 to Clemson in the ACC Championship Game in 2020 before getting smoked by Alabama in the Playoff Semifinals by a 31-14 score. They got crushed in Ann Arbor against Michigan by a 45-14 score in 2019. They lost to Clemson in the Playoff Semifinals in 2018 by a 30-3 score. Even in 2018 at Miami (FL), they lost by a 41-8 score. This team is no stranger to blowout losses. They have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 road games with the total set in the 56.5 to 63 range. And they may be without their potential All-American center Jarrett Patterson who is dealing with a foot sprain. He was limited in practice this week and is listed as questionable.
FINAL TAKE: Two intangibles favor Ohio State. Knowles was the defensive coordinator for Oklahoma State in the Fiesta Bowl — so not only did he prep extensively against the Irish but the early failures of his defense will remain fresh in his mind. Notre Dame only scored seven points in the scorn half of that game. Additionally, Day has experience coaching against Freeman’s defense back in 2019 when the Irish played Cincinnati. The Buckeyes raced out to a 28-0 halftime lead before cruising to a 42-0 victory. 25* CFB Saturday Night ABC-TV Game of the Month with the Ohio State Buckeyes (172) minus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (171). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-31-22 |
Red Sox v. Twins -116 |
Top |
6-5 |
Loss |
-116 |
3 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 7:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Minnesota Twins (920) versus the Boston Red Sox (919) listing both starting pitchers Joe Ryan and Michael Wacha. THE SITUATION: Minnesota (67-61) has won five games in a row after their 10-5 victory against the Red Sox in the second game of this series yesterday. Boston (62-68) has lost three straight games and seven of their last nine contests.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TWINS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Minnesota has won 7 of their last 8 games after winning their last game — and they have won 12 of their last 18 games after winning three or more games in a row. They have also won 4 games in a row after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have won 11 of their last 17 games after scoring at least nine runs in their last contest. Additionally, the Twins have won 5 games in a row at home — and they have won 19 of their last 26 home games when priced in the -100 to -150 price range. They give the ball to Ryan who has a 10-6 record with a 3.65 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP in 21 starts. The right-hander got COVID in mid-May — and he struggled with his velocity when he turned to the mound three weeks later. But the 26-year-old rookie has regained his touch this month with a 3.25 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .214 in five starts. He comes off six shutout innings in his last start against San Francisco on Friday — and Minnesota has won 6 of their last 9 games when Ryan is following up a start in which he did not allow more than two earned runs. He thrives at home at Target Field where he has a 2.69 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .179 in 12 starts as opposed to his 5.05 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .266 on the road. The Twins have won 8 of their last 11 games at home with Ryan on the mound priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher. He faces a Red Sox team that has lost 7 of their last 8 games against right-handed starting pitchers. Boston ranks 27th in MLB since July 1st in both weighted on-base percentage and weighted Runs Created when on the road against right-handed starting pitchers. The Red Sox have lost 5 of their last 6 games after losing their last game — and they have also lost 24 of their last 36 games after losing three of their last four games. They have also lost 9 of their last 14 games after allowing at least ten runs in their last contest. Furthermore, Boston has lost 5 of their last 6 games on the road — and they have lost 7 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Wacha who has a 9-1 record with a 2.53 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP in 16 starts on the road. The deeper sabermetrics suggest that the right-hander is excelling on borrowed time with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.26 and 4.09 moving forward. He has been most effective at home in Fenway Park where he has a 1.79 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .182 — but in his eight starts on the road, he has a 3.30 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .230.
FINAL TAKE: The Twins looked to be fading fast in the AL Central race at this time last week — but after a weekend sweep against San Francisco and now taking the first game of this series with Byron Buxton and Tyler Mahle set to return from the injured list soon — there is new enthusiasm from this team. Boston has gone just 19-35 since the beginning of July — and now President Sam Kennedy is denying speculation that he is prepared to clean house in the offseason. Minnesota is scoring 5.7 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games — and they have won 4 straight games against right-handed starting pitchers. 25* Major League Baseball Game of the Month with the money-line on the Minnesota Twins (920) versus the Boston Red Sox (919) listing both starting pitchers Joe Ryan and Michael Wacha. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-27-22 |
Bucs +4 v. Colts |
Top |
10-27 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (129) plus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (130). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (0-2) lost their second straight exhibition game this preseason with a 13-3 loss at Tennessee as a 2.5-point underdog last Saturday. Indianapolis (0-2) is also winless this preseason after a 27-26 upset loss at home to Detroit last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS PLUS THE POINTS: Both head coaches will be using this game as a dress rehearsal for their starters for the regular season. Tom Brady will get the start for Tampa Bay. Head coach Todd Bowles has not commented regarding how long Brady and the starters will play -- but he did state that every healthy player will get into the game tonight. I think Brady plays into the second quarter (at least). He missed 11 days during camp for undisclosed reasons — and that has hampered his ability to get fully into synch with new receivers like Russell Gage, Julio Jones, and Kyle Rudolph. There is significant turnover on the offensive line as well — so getting live action against hostile competition will help. Brady has not had the benefit of joint practices with another opponent this preseason. Brady played in the third preseason game last year — and he completed 11 of 14 passes for 154 yards with a touchdown pass. Blaine Gabbert took over by the second quarter — so I expect something similar with Brady needing the work with his teammates. Injuries along with the offseason retirement of left guard Ali Marpet is a serious concern for Brady and the Buccaneers — but playing the Colts offers a good warm-up. While Indianapolis does have DeForest Buckner at defensive tackle who had 18 quarterback hits last year (if he plays tonight), the Colts only has 120 pressure on the QB last season — second-to-last in the league. Tampa Bay beat Houston in that third preseason game in which Brady started — and the same backup quarterback combination will complete the job under center for them tonight. Blaine Gabbert might have failed to develop into an elite starting quarterback in the NFL — but he is one of the better backups in the league. He has been very efficient this preseason by completing 8 of 10 passes for 69 yards and a touchdown pass (and no interceptions) in his limited work in both preseason games. Gabbert has 48 career starts during the regular season with over 9200 passing yards. And then second-year pro Kyle Trask has made his case as the potential heir apparent to Brady by completing 36 of 57 passes for 363 yards this preseason. Those are good numbers for a third-string quarterback in the preseason. Indianapolis head coach Frank Reich stated that the majority of his starters will play through the first half — but there are some notable exceptions. Neither Jonathan Taylor nor Nyheim Hines will play tonight leaving the Colts with only running backs fighting for a roster spot. Center Ryan Kelly has been out with COVID this week so I do not expect him to play as he recovers. Defensive end Kwity Paye is out with an injury. Indianapolis does have a good quarterback room behind Matt Ryan who will get the start tonight. Nick Foles is a former Super Bowl winner (although he has not been a regular starter in the league since). Second-year pro Sam Ehlinger has put up good numbers this preseason. I am not as high on rookie Jack Coan who played for Notre Dame last year after transferring from Wisconsin. But these QBs will be playing against a stout Tampa Bay defense that was 5th in the NFL by allowing only 20.8 PPG. In this preseason playing mostly the backups, the Buccaneers have allowed only 19.5 PPG and 248.5 total YPG. The Colts are winless this preseason despite that solid quarterback room — and Ryan played in their opening exhibition game. The Indy defense has allowed 27.0 PPG and 350.5 total YPG — and the Colts have been outgained by -61.0 net YPG.
FINAL TAKE: There is value in fading home favorites in the preseason since the home-field advantage is negligible in front of a crowd that is saving their passions for the regular season. For example, Indianapolis did not commit a turnover in their upset loss to the Lions last week — and home teams in the preseason who did not commit a turnover in their previous preseason game have failed to cover the point spread in 31 of the last 42 games in the preseason. Expecting the Colts at home to cover a point spread of more than a field goal is a big ask — especially since the Buccaneers could easily win this game. 25* NFLx Preseason Game of the Year with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (129) plus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (130). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-27-22 |
Charlotte v. Florida Atlantic UNDER 59 |
Top |
13-43 |
Win
|
100 |
22 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Charlotte 49ers (301) and the Florida Atlantic Owls (302). THE SITUATION: Charlotte (0-0) returns 14 starters from last year’s team that finished 5-7. FAU (0-0) has 14 starters back as well from their team that finished 5-7 last year.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The 49ers need to improve a defensive unit that allowed 34.0 PPG and that ranked 120th in the FBS by giving up 465.0 total YPG — but head coach Will Nealy has reasons for optimism in his fourth year with the program. He brought a wily veteran with plenty of experience in the NFL and the FBS level in Greg Brown to coordinate his defense this season. Brown served as the defensive coordinator for Arizona in 2018 -- and he has over a decade of experience as a defensive coach in the NFL. He has experienced players that he should be able to coach up as eight seniors who played at least 250 snaps last year returned. Injuries did not help Charlotte’s cause last year with the team losing 46 total games to injuries from their starters. Getting Davondre “Tank” Robinson back at strong safety after the former East Carolina transfer suffered a season-ending biceps injury in Week One will help. Healy also brought in a four-year player in defensive end Amir Siddiq from Central Michigan to add a pass rush threat to a line that has two starts returning. He joins defensive end Markees Watts to give the team an intriguing pass rush combination who combined for ten sacks last year. The 49errs offense returns Chris Reynolds at quarterback for his sixth year with the program and his fifth as a starter. At this point, we know what we are going to get with the fifth-year starter (with the COVID season where no player lost eligibility). He completed 215 of 337 yards for 2648 yards — but the offense only scored 27.2 PPG which ranked 79th in the nation. Charlotte has palled 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in the first half of the season. They have also played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 56.5 to 63-point range. And in their last 7 games, as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points, they have played 5 of those games Under the Total. FAU returns eight starters from their offense that only scored 25.4 PPG last year, ranking 84th in the FBS. Former Miami (FL) quarterback N’Kosi Perry returns under center after he completed only 60.7% of his passes for 2771 yards. Perry has demonstrated flashes of brilliance in his career — but his inconsistency is why he lost the starting job with the Hurricanes and eventually transferred to a Group of Five program. He plays behind an offensive line that allowed 35 sacks last year. The Owls' defense gave up 409.2 total YPG last year (90th in the FBS) but they only gave up 25.8 PPG which was tied for 58th in the nation. Third-year head coach Willie Taggart retooled his defense by bringing in Todd Orlando as the new defensive coordinator after previous stints with USC, Texas, and the University of Houston. The veteran has six returning starters plus a slew of transfers led by sophomore linebacker Jamie Pettway from Missouri. FAU held their first eight opponents to only 21.5 PPG last year — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the first half of the season. The Owls have also played 18 of their last 26 games at home Under the Total with the Total in the 56.5-63 point range — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 10 points.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 6 of their last 7 meetings Under the Total. FAU dominated Charlotte last year by a 38-9 score as a 6.5-point favorite on the road with that Total set at 58. Healy has probably reminded himself every day in the offseason that his team has a 6-3 record in the last two seasons if they do not allow more than 35 points — but they are 1-8 in their last nine games when their opponent scores more than 35 points. The 49ers need to control the clock to help Reynolds stay within striking distance. 25* CFB Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Charlotte 49ers (301) and the Florida Atlantic Owls (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-26-22 |
Patriots v. Raiders UNDER 37.5 |
Top |
6-23 |
Win
|
100 |
23 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (115) and the Las Vegas Raiders (116). THE SITUATION: New England (1-1) comes off a 20-10 victory against Carolina as a 6-point favorite in their second preseason game last Friday. Las Vegas (3-0) remained unbeaten in their three preseason games after a 15-13 upset victory at Miami as a 1.5-point underdog last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Patriots come off a game where they scored a defensive touchdown by recovering a fumble in the fourth quarter — and they allowed the Panthers to score on a 50-yard interception touchdown in the third quarter. We lost our Under play on Monday after the Jets scored a defensive touchdown early in the fourth quarter — but I do not expect this minor rash of defensive touchdowns to continue. The bigger takeaway from New England’s second preseason game is that their defense did not allow an offensive touchdown while holding the Panthers to just 192 total yards. The Patriots have an outstanding defense that finished 2nd in the NFL by allowing only 17.8 Points-Per-Game — and this is a unit with depth. They enjoyed a +3 net turnover margin in the contest — and they have played 8 of their last 12 preseason games Under the Total after playing a preseason game where they had a +2 net turnover margin and they have played 4 of their last 5 preseason games Under the Total after generating a +3 or better net turnover margin in their last game. Now after playing their first two preseason games at home in Gillette Stadium, they go on the road for their lone road trip this month — and they have played 5 of their last 7 preseason games Under the Total after a two-game home stand in the preseason. The Patriots took part in joint practices at the Raiders facilities here in Las Vegas (technically in Henderson, very close to the Hollywood Sports home offices, BTW). Head coach Bill Belichick has been ripped for not hiring an experienced offensive coordinator — instead, he is using longtime staff members and former (failed) head coaches, Matt Patricia and Joe Judge, to work with the offense while auditioning for the play-calling duties. This development is making it difficult for their regular season opponents to scout against them since there is not a book on Patricia or Judge when calling offensive plays. Do not expect Belichick to offer any clues in this preseason game — and any of the more sophisticated plays he wanted second-year quarterback Mac Jones to work on probably took place in the joint practices with the Raiders. Jones played only three series last week against Carolina — don’t look for him to take the field in this final preseason game. Expect rookie Bailey Zappe from Western Kentucky to get most — or all of the snaps — since there is no urgency for Belichick to get 14-year veteran Brian Hoyer some snaps. The Patriots will probably not use either of their top two running backs, Damien Harris or Rhamondre Stevenson after Harris left the final joint practice with the Raiders on Wednesday with a minor injury. Las Vegas only managed 289 total yards of offense despite being on the field for over 33 minutes in their preseason game against the Dolphins last week. Derek Carr has not taken the field in any of the first three preseason games for first-year head coach Josh McDaniels — and after two good joint practices against the Patriots’ first-string defense, it would be a big surprise if the starting quarterback would risk injury now. With the Raiders playing four preseason games this year with their involvement in the Hall of Fame Game, the traditional dress rehearsal game for McDaniels if he wanted to get Carr some live action would have been last week. Las Vegas then traded away their veteran quarterback Nick Mullens to Minnesota earlier in the week — so it will probably be just Jarrett Stidham and rookie Chase Garbers under center for this one. Stidham played for McDaniels the previous two seasons when he was the offensive coordinator in New England — so this game may be mostly under Garbers’ leadership, the rookie QB from California, to see what he can do. Look for plenty of running plays from the Raiders offense as well — they have run the ball in 97 of their 198 snaps in their three preseason games (yes, I track run/pass ratios for these exhibition games to help find an edge) for a 49% clip which should help our Under play since the clock should continue to run all night when they are on offense. Las Vegas has averaged just 303.3 total YPG in their three preseason games — but their defense has shined by holding their three opponents to 14.7 PPG and only 303.7 total YPG.
FINAL TAKE: Preseason coaching trends are of particular interest to me — but with all the new coaches, the wiped-out preseason in 2020 because of COVID, and the reduction of four preseason games to three starting last year, the sample sizes to discover actionable evidence has declined. But New England offers the deepest sample size of exhibition games to digest with Belichick in his 23rd year leading the team. The Patriots have played 16 of their last 24 road games in the preseason Under the Total when an underdog getting up to three points. 25* AFCx Preseason Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (115) and the Las Vegas Raiders (116). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-26-22 |
Rockies v. Mets -1.5 |
Top |
6-7 |
Loss |
-145 |
3 h 46 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the New York Mets (958) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Colorado Rockies (957) listing both starting pitchers Chris Bassitt and Chad Kuhl. THE SITUATION: New York (80-46) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 3-1 victory against the Rockies last night. Colorado (54-72) has lost two in a row — and eight of their last 11 — after their loss to Jacob DeGrom last night.
REASONS TO TAKE THE METS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: New York has won 23 of their last 31 games after losing two of their last three games. And while they have only scored five runs in their last two games, they have then won 14 of their last 16 games after not scoring more than two runs in their last game. The Mets have won 37 of their last 51 home games when priced at -110 or higher. They have also won 28 of their last 36 games when priced as a money-line favorite at -200 or higher. They give the ball to Bassitt who has an 11-7 record with a 3.26 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP in 23 starts this season. The right-hander has thrived at home where he enjoys a 2.55 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .218 in 12 starts as opposed to his 4.12 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .248 on the road. New York has won 18 of their last 26 home games when Bassitt is on the bump when favored at -110 or higher. They have also won 11 in a row when Bassitt is favored at -200 or higher. He faces a Rockies team that scores only 3.1 Runs-Per-Game on the road with a .235 batting average, a .287 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .634. Colorado has lost 65 of their last 89 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. They have also lost 20 of their last 25 road games as an underdog priced at +250 or higher. They counter with Kuhl who has a 6-7 record with a 5.16 ERA and a 1.52 WHIP in 20 starts. The right-hander returns to the mound after being on the injured list with a right flexor strain. He was struggling before hitting the DL while also working on some adjustments to his delivery. In his last six starts since the start of July, Kohl has been saddled with a 10.17 ERA and a 2.18 WHIP. And while he has a 4.17 ERA with a 1.31 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .258 in his nine starts at home, he has been roughed up with a 6.08 ERA, 1.73 WHIP, and a .288 opponent’s batting average in his 11 starts on the road. The Rockies have lost 26 of their last 34 road games with Kuhl pitching with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range.
FINAL TAKE: These team trends do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we are laying for this play — but when the Mets win, it is usually by more than one run. New York has played 38 games this season priced above my -150 price threshold — and while they have been upset 10 times, they have covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 21 of their 28 victories under these circumstances. Colorado has been priced as a money-line underdog at +145 or higher 52 times this season — and while they have pulled the upset in 16 of those games, they have failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line in 27 of their 36 losses in those situations. 25* MLB Run-Line of the Month with the New York Mets (958) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Colorado Rockies (957) listing both starting pitchers Chris Bassitt and Chad Kuhl. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-24-22 |
Marlins v. A's UNDER 7 |
Top |
2-3 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 0 m |
Show
|
At 3:37 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Marlins (971) and the Oakland A’s (972) listing both starting pitchers Jesus Luzardo and Cole Irvin. THE SITUATION: Miami (54-69) has won two games in a row after their 5-3 victory against the A’s in the second game of their series. Oakland (45-79) has lost four of their last six games.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Before Tuesday night’s game, the Marlins had not scored more than four runs in 23 straight games — and they did not score more than three runs in 21 of those games. The Under is 21-8-2 in Miami’s last 31 games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. The Marlins have also played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total on the road. They give the ball to Luzardo who has a 3-5 record with a 3.44 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP in 10 starts. The deeper sabermetrics are encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.32 and 3.15 moving forward. He comes off an impressive start in Los Angeles against the Dodgers on Friday when he allowed only one run in 6 1/3 innings against the commanding MLB leader in runs scored. Miami has played 4 straight Unders this season when Luzardo is on the mound following up a start where he did not allow more than one earned run. In his last four starts this month since coming back from a forearm injury that kept him on the shelf since May, Luzardo has a 2.76 ERA with a 0.90 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .188. The left-hander has been more effective on the road where he enjoys a 2.53 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .128 in six starts as opposed to his 4.87 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, and .253 opponent’s batting average in four starts at home. Luzardo also sports a 2.45 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .154 in four starts. He faces an A’s team that has played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total against left-handed starting pitchers — and the Under is 6-2-1 in their last 9 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. Oakland has played 31 of their last 46 games Under the Total after losing two of their last three games. At home, the A’s are scoring only 2.8 Runs-Per-Game while posting a .205 batting average, .268 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .585. The Under is 28-13-1 in their last 42 games at home. They counter with Irvin who has a 6-11 record this season with a 3.33 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP in 22 starts. The left-hander has been much more effective at home where he enjoys a 2.12 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .199 in 12 starts as compared to his 4.88 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .270 on the road. Oakland has played 13 of their last 20 home games Under the Total with Irvin pitching with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. He pitches against a listless Marlins lineup that is hitting just .188 in their last seven games with a .261 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .607 during that span.
FINAL TAKE: Since June 1st, Miami ranks 28th in MLB in weighted on-base percentage on the road against left-handed starting pitchers — and they rank 29th in MLB since June 1st in weighted Runs Created on the road against left-handed starting pitchers. Oakland ranks 29th in MLB in weighted on-base percentage when playing at home against left-handed starting pitchers since June 1st — and they rank 27th in weighted Runs Created at home against left-handed starting pitchers since June 1st. 25* MLB Getaway Game Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Marlins (971) and the Oakland A’s (972) listing both starting pitchers Jesus Luzardo and Cole Irvin. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-22-22 |
Falcons v. Jets UNDER 39 |
Top |
16-24 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 46 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Falcons (431) and the New York Jets (432). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (1-0) opened their preseason campaign with a 27-23 upset win at Detroit as a 2.5-point underdog on August 12th. New York (1-0) also pulled off an upset in their first preseason game with a 24-21 win at Philadelphia as a 1-point underdog on August 12th.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Jets will be playing their third and fourth string quarterbacks in this game tonight. Zach Wilson injured his knee last week which will keep him out for at least the rest of the regular season. Veteran Joe Flacco has looked good in practice — but second-year head coach Robert Saleh will not risk him getting injured in an exhibition game since he may be needed to quarterback the team to start the season. That means that Mike White and Chris Streveler will get the snaps for the Jets tonight. White completed only 10 of his 20 passes last week for 98 yards White was solid in four games and three starts last year — but too often he was a Check-Down Charlie as he averaged just 4.1 yards in the air per completion. Streveler is a former Grey Cup champion for the Winnipeg Blue Bombers but he has played in only two games in the NFL in his career with Arizona. The Jets only gained 302 yards last week against the Eagles — but the defense played well by holding Philadelphia to just 313 total yards. After allowing the Eagles to score 31 points in the opening preseason game last season, Saleh’s teams in the preseason have held their last three opponents to 14 PPG. Atlanta head coach Arthur Smith will play Marcus Mariota in the first quarter tonight — but rookie Desmond Ridder will likely get the majority of the snaps tonight. The former Cincinnati Bearcat was up-and-down last week in completing just 10 of 22 passes for 103 yards. Second-year pro Feleipe Franks is likely to get some snaps under center in the fourth quarter. Mariota played last week — but the Falcons only gained 307 yards on 18 first downs.
FINAL TAKE: The Falcons scored only 30 points in their three preseason games last year — they are averaging 14.3 PPG in the four preseason games under Smith. The Jets have averaged 19.7 PPG in their last three games under Saleh. 25* NFLx Preseason Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Falcons (431) and the New York Jets (432). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-21-22 |
Brewers v. Cubs +141 |
Top |
5-2 |
Loss |
-100 |
2 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 2:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Chicago Cubs (906) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Milwaukee Brewers (905) listing both starting pitchers Justin Steele and Brandon Woodruff. THE SITUATION: Chicago (52-67) has won five straight games after taking the second game of this NL Central series by a 6-5 score yesterday. Milwaukee (63-56) has lost five of their last seven games (PLEASE NOTE: I accidentally entered this Report for the Cubs as a money-line play (which is fine), but I do prefer and endorse the Cubs plus the +1.5 Run-Line since that price is below my -150 price threshold -- FYI).
REASONS TO TAKE THE CUBS PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: The Cubs are playing feisty baseball this month despite being out of the playoff picture. They have won 14 of their last 17 games after a victory by one run — and they have won 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than five runs in their last contest. The first two games in this series have finished Over the Total — and Chicago has won 15 of their last 21 games after playing at least two straight Overs. They have also won 24 of their last 35 games at home after winning four or five of their last six games. The Cubbies have won 9 of their last 11 games at home at Wrigley Field — and they have beaten 7 of their last 10 opponents with winning records. Steele gets the ball with a 4-7 record along with a 3.43 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP in 22 starts. He is incorporating a change up into his arsenal — and in his late eight starts, he sports a 1.67 ERA with 50 strikeouts and just 16 walks in 43 innings. He does his best work at home where he enjoys a 3.03 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .246 in thirteen starts as compared to his 4.04 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .260. He faces a slumping Brewers lineup that is scoring just 3.7 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .165 batting average, .252 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .577 during that span. Milwaukee has lost 7 of their last 8 games after scoring five runs in their last contest — and they have lost 6 of their last 7 games after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. The Brewers have now lost four games in a row to the Cubs with the last three losses by just one run — and they have lost 4 of their last 5 games when avenging three or more straight losses to their opponent by two runs or less. Milwaukee has lost 8 of their last 9 games on the road. Furthermore, the Brewers have lost 6 straight games on the road against teams with a losing record. They counter with Woodruff who has a 9-3 record with a 3.53 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP in 18 starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 2.51 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .181 in eight starts — but in his ten starts on the road, he has a 4.47 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .266. Milwaukee has lost 10 of their last 16 road games with Woodruff on the hill with the Total set in the 7-7.5 range. The Cubs are scoring 5.1 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games — and they have won 7 of their last 8 home games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: These team trends above do not even take into account the +1.5 Run-Line we are taking for this play. Six of the last 12 losses for the Cubs have been by just one run. Three of the Brewers last 4 victories — along with 7 of their last 14 wins — have been by just one run. 25* MLB National League Central Run-Line Underdog of the Month with the Chicago Cubs (906) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Milwaukee Brewers (905) listing both starting pitchers Justin Steele and Brandon Woodruff. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-20-22 |
49ers v. Vikings UNDER 39.5 |
Top |
17-7 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (421) and the Minnesota Vikings (422). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (1-0) won their opening preseason game at home against Green Bay last Friday by a 28-21 score as a 2.5-point favorite. Minnesota (0-1) lost in Las Vegas to the Raiders as a 4.5-point underdog last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: These two teams completed two days of joint practices on Wednesday and Thursday of this week — so the most sophisticated offensive plays they were willing to show each other took place then rather than in this game which the remaining 30 teams in the league can access. The respective offensive game plans are not just going to be vanilla — they are going to be generic brand vanilla. San Francisco head coach Kyle Shanahan already proclaimed earlier in the preseason that he would not use his starters for this second preseason game. Wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk claimed the joint practices were a “waste of time” because he was barely used. He may miss even that excitement for tonight’s game. Trey Lance is not likely to play — and Shanahan will not risk Jimmy Garoppolo getting injured since that would ruin his trade value. So, expect some Nate Sudfeld under center and plenty of rookie quarterback Brock Purdy. The seventh-round pick out of Iowa State completed 3 of 6 passes for 36 yards against the Packers last week. The Niners are dealing with injuries at running back with Elijah Mitchell already out and now Trey Sermon dealing with a foot injury that he endured during the joint practices. The Niners’ offense will probably be plenty of rushing attempts for rookie Tyrion Davis-Price along with Jeff Wilson and JaMychal Hasty with the clock running constantly with Shanahan just wanting to escape the game without injuries. His teams have played all 5 of their preseason games Under the Total when playing on the road. Minnesota only managed to gain 298 yards last week in their loss to the Raiders — but they did hold Las Vegas to just 300 total yards. Rookie head coach Kevin O’Connell did not play the key offensive starters last week — and he has declared that he will sit quarterback Kirk Cousins, running back Dalvin Cook, and wide receiver Justin Jefferson. Backup Sean Mannion will probably get some snaps — but the starter will be second-year pro Kellen Mond who will probably play the majority of the game.
FINAL TAKE: These are two teams that could face each other in the NFC playoffs — frankly, I’m surprised that these coaches agreed to the joint practices earlier this week. O’Connell was the offensive coordinator for the Los Angeles Rams — so the Sean McVay offensive system is already well-known to Shanahan. These two teams probably played the greatest hits from the established Shanahan/McVay playbooks during the week — and the backups on offense will be asked to execute those plays once again against defensive players who have working against them for two days already. That is a great formula for the Under. 25* NFCx Preseason Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (421) and the Minnesota Vikings (422). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-12-22 |
Yankees v. Red Sox OVER 9 |
Top |
2-3 |
Loss |
-105 |
2 h 36 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (969) and the Boston Red Sox (970) listing both starting pitchers Domingo German and Nathan Eovaldi. THE SITUATION: New York (71-41) has lost two straight games — and seven of their last eight — after their 4-3 loss in Seattle to the Mariners on Wednesday. Boston (55-58) snapped a four-game losing streak with their 4-3 win against Baltimore last night.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The slumping Yankees had scored nine runs in two straight games before getting shutout by a 1-0 score to the Mariners on Tuesday and then losing by one-run again on Wednesday. New York has played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after losing two games in a row by two runs or less — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after losing two games in a row by one run. They continue their road trip where the Over is 7-3-1 in their last 11 games when the Total is in the 9-10.5 range — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. And in their last 16 games against divisional rivals, they have played 13 of these games Over the Total. Manager Aaron Boone gives the ball to German who has a 1-2 record with a 5.09 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP in four starts this season. After missing all of 2020 because of domestic abuse charges, he returned last season to generate a 4-5 record with a 4.58 ERA in 98 1/3 innings. His season was delayed this year due to a shoulder injury. Giving up gopher balls has always been an issue for the right-hander — and he has already served up four home runs in his 17 innings this year. German looked good in his rehab starts — but he has been saddled with a 5.68 ERA in his three starts on the road since his return to the mound. He has only pitched 106 innings from 2019 which was his best full season despite a 4.03 ERA. He has a career 4.56 ERA while allowing 1.68 home runs per nine innings. In his 25 career innings at Fenway Park, he has a 4.68 ERA. The Yankees have also played 8 of their last 13 games Over the Total with German their starting pitcher at night. He faces a Red Sox team that has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams using a WHIP of 1.30 or higher — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. Boston has played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total playing at home in Fenway Park. They have also played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total against teams winning at least 60% of their games — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against AL East rivals. They counter with Eovaldi who has a 5-3 record with a 4.23 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in 17 starts this season. The right-hander missed about five weeks prior to the All-Star Break earlier this summer with back inflammation — and since his return, his velocity is down. While he did pitch surprisingly well two starts ago in Houston against the Astros recently, he still has a 7.29 ERA with a 1.52 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .304 in his four starts the second half of the season. He has pitched better on the road where he owns a 2.64 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .224 in ten starts — but in his seven starts at home, he has been saddled with a 6.81 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, and an opponents batting average .320 in seven starts at home. The Red Sox have played 10 of their last 16 games Over the Total with Eovaldi pitching with the Total in the 9-10.5 range. He faces a Yankees’ lineup that ranks 3rd and 2nd on the road against right-handed starting pitchers in MLB since June 1st in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created. New York has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 11 of their last 16 games over the Total on the road against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: The Bronx Bombers have scored 14 runs in each of their last two games against Boston. These two teams have played 7 straight Overs — and they have played 5 straight Overs when playing in Fenway Park. 25* MLB American League East Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (969) and the Boston Red Sox (970) listing both starting pitchers Domingo German and Nathan Eovaldi. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-10-22 |
White Sox -128 v. Royals |
Top |
3-8 |
Loss |
-128 |
9 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Chicago White Sox (973) versus the Kansas City Royals (974) listing both starting pitchers Johnny Cueto and Kris Bubic. THE SITUATION: Chicago (56-54) has won two of their last three games after their 3-2 victory against the Royals yesterday. Kansas City (45-66) had their three-game winning streak snapped with the loss.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WHITE SOX WITH THE MONEY-LINE: While Chicago has been a disappointment so far this season, they are still very much alive in the American League playoff race. They have been riddled with injuries all season — but manager Tony LaRussa has finally been able to pencil in his expected opening day lineup this month. Not surprisingly, the White Sox are playing better baseball — they have won seven of their last eleven games and have not lost a series since their July 4th series with Minnesota. Chicago’s struggles have mostly been at home where they have a 25-29 record this season. But the White Sox have won 13 of their last 21 games on the road with the Total set in the 8.5-10 range — and they have won 13 of their last 17 road games when priced as a money-line favorite at -125 or higher. Chicago has also won 5 of their last 7 games against AL Central rivals. Cueto gets the start with his 4-5 record along with a 2.91 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP in 14 starts (15 appearances). The veteran right-hander has been more effective on the road where he enjoys a 2.00 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .257 in seven starts as compared to his 3.71 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .260 at home. His teams have won 7 of their last 10 road games when he is on the mound with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range. He should have success against this Royals team that scores only 3.8 Runs-Per-Game against right-handed starting pitchers. Since the beginning of June when playing at home against right-handed starting pitchers, Kansas City ranks 20th in weighted on-base percentage and 22nd in weighted Runs Created. The Royals have lost 7 of their last 9 games after not scoring more than two runs in their last game. After trading away Whit Merrifield, Andrew Benintendi, and Carlos Santana last month, this team has fully embraced rebuilding by playing their prospects for the rest of the season. Kansas City has lost 36 of their last 53 games against teams with a winning record — and they have lost 17 of their last 23 home games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Bubic who has a 2-6 record along with a 5.27 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP in 17 games (18 appearances). The left-hander struggles with control — he is averaging 5.03 walks per nine innings when pitching at home. He has been less effective at home where he is saddled with a 5.86 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .281 in ten starts as opposed to his 4.58 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, and .257 opponent’s batting average on the road. Bubic has been pitching better as of late by not allowing more than three earned runs in seven starts — but the Royals have lost 5 of those 7 games still.
FINAL TAKE: The White Sox rake left-handed pitching — since June 1st when playing on the road against left-handed pitchers, Chicago ranks 3rd in weighted on-base percentage and 2nd in weighted Runs Created. They have won 14 of their last 20 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. 25* MLB Wednesday FS1-TV Game of the Month with the money-line on the Chicago White Sox (973) versus the Kansas City Royals (974) listing both starting pitchers Johnny Cueto and Kris Bubic. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-07-22 |
Padres v. Dodgers -130 |
Top |
0-4 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 7:08 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (908) versus the San Diego Padres (907) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Anderson and Yu Darvish. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (73-33) won their seventh straight game — and 10th in their last 11 contests — with their 8-3 victory against the Padres in the second game of this series. San Diego (61-48) has lost three games in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DODGERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Los Angeles is rolling now — and they have won 40 of their last 53 games after winning their last contest. They have also won 26 of their last 35 games after a win by four or more runs. Additionally, the Dodgers have won 9 of their last 11 games after winning two in a row against a divisional rival — and they have won 47 of their last 58 games at home after winning three or more games in a row. LA is crushing the baseball right now — they have scored 16 runs in the first two games in this series while plating 48 runners in their last seven contests. They have won 17 of their last 22 games after scoring eight or more runs in their last game. They have won 56 of their last 73 games at home at Dodger Stadium — and they have won 40 of their last 53 home games against teams with a winning record. They have also won 9 of their last 11 home games when priced as a money-line favorite no higher than -150 — and they have won 18 of their last 19 home games against NL West rivals. Anderson gets the start with his 12-1 record along with a 2.89 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP in 18 starts (20 appearances). The left-hander has been outstanding when pitching at home where he enjoys a 2.59 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .216 in nine games (eight starts) as opposed to his 3.17 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and .235 opponent’s batting average on the road. The Dodgers have won 7 of his 8 starts at home this season — and Anderson’s teams have won 12 of their last 14 games when he is on the mound looking to extend a winning streak. He faces a Padres team that does not hit left-handed pitching very well — especially with Fernando Tatis yet to play this season. San Diego scores only 4.1 Runs-Per-Game against left-handed starting pitchers with a .244 batting average, .312 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .674. Since the beginning of June, the Padres rank 16th on the road in weighted on-base percentage and 17th on the road in weighted Runs Created. The Padres have lost 7 of their last 9 games against left-handed starting pitchers — and they have lost 4 straight road games against left-handed starters. They made big moves at the trade deadline by acquiring Juan Soto and Josh Hader — but they still can’t beat the Dodgers. San Diego has now lost 7 of their 9 games against their NL West rivals — and they have lost 42 of their last 59 games against them in Dodger Stadium. The Padres have lost 5 straight games after dropping the first two games in a new series. They have lost 5 of their last 6 games on the road. They counter with Darvish who has a 10-4 record along with a 3.30 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP in 20 starts. But while the right-hander thrives at home with a 2.17 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .172 in ten starts, those numbers rise to a 4.50 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .253 on the road. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last season when Darvish had a 3.38 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .206 in 17 home starts but a 5.54 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, and .244 opponent’s batting average in 13 starts on the road. San Diego has lost 5 of their last 7 road games with Darvish pitching with the Total set from 8.5-10 — and they have lost 13 of their 20 games in the second half of the season with him making the start.
FINAL TAKE: The Dodgers are scoring 6.9 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .294 batting average, .337 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .827 in those contests. They have won 37 of their last 51 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower — and they have won 39 of their last 52 games against right-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB Sunday ESPN Game of the Year with the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (908) versus the San Diego Padres (907) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Anderson and Yu Darvish. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-31-22 |
Cubs v. Giants UNDER 7.5 |
Top |
0-4 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 7:08 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Cubs (961) and the San Francisco Giants (962) listing both starting pitchers Adrian Sampson and Carlos Rodon. THE SITUATION: Chicago (41-59) has lost two of their last three games after their 5-4 loss to the Giants yesterday. San Francisco (50-51) has won two of their last three games.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cubs had won six straight games before dropping two of three. They have played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after winning five or six of their last seven games. The Under is also 3-0-1 in their last 4 games after losing their last game. Chicago has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and the Under is 6-2-1 in their last 9 road games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. Sampson takes the mound for the Cubs with his 0-1 record along with a 3.20 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in 39 1/3 innings. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 2.53 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .205 in 10 2/3 innings which includes two starts as opposed to his 3.45 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, and .254 opponent’s batting average at home at Wrigley Field. Chicago has played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total with Sampson on the hill priced as a money-line underdog at +150 or higher. He faces a slumping Giants lineup that is scoring only 3.0 Runs-Per-Game with a .220 batting average, .270 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .624 in those games. San Francisco ranks 27th in MLB since June 1st in weighted on-base percentage when playing at home against right-handed starting pitchers — and they rank 24th in weighted Runs Scored at home against right-handed starting pitchers since the beginning of June. They have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. San Francisco has also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after winning their last game — and the Under is 10-2-1 in their last 13 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. They have also played 20 of their last 30 games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games. The Giants have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing at home. They counter with Rodon who has an 8-6 record with a 3.18 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP in 20 starts. The deeper sabermetrics validate his outstanding season with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.12 and 3.14 moving forward. The lefty has a 2.05 ERA in his eight starts at home as opposed to his 3.88 ERA on the road. His teams have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total when he is the starting pitcher priced in the -125 to -175 range. He faces a Cubs team scoring only 3.9 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .224 batting average, .274 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .666 during that span. Since June 1st against left-handed starting pitchers, Chicago ranks 20th in weighted on-base percentage on the road and 23rd in weighted Runs Created. The Cubs have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against left-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 7 encounters against each other Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing at Oracle Park. 25* MLB Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Cubs (961) and the San Francisco Giants (962) listing both starting pitchers Adrian Sampson and Carlos Rodon. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-30-22 |
Phillies -145 v. Pirates |
Top |
2-1 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 7:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Philadelphia Phillies (905) versus the Pittsburgh Pirates (906) listing both starting pitchers Ranger Suarez and Mitch Keller. THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (53-47) has won three straight games after their 4-2 victory against the Pirates in the second game of this four-game series. Pittsburgh (40-60) has lost five games in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PHILLIES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: The Phillies have won 21 of their last 31 games after winning their last game — and they have won 14 of their last 16 games after winning at least two games in a row. The Philly bullpen did not give up an earned run last night — and Philadelphia has won 28 of their last 42 games after their bullpen did not give up an earned run in their last contest. They have also won 7 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. Additionally, after winning the opening game of this series by an 8-7 score, they have won 5 of their last 7 games after winning their two previous games by no more than two runs. After a slow start to the season that got manager Joe Girardi fired, the Phillies have a 31-18 record since the beginning of June. They have won 19 of their last 29 games on the road — and they have won 5 straight games on the road. They give the ball to Suarez who has a 7-5 record with a 3.84 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP in 17 starts. After a slow start to the season, the left-hander has not allowed an earned run in his last two starts spanning 10 innings. He has been more effective on the road where he owns a 3.23 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .249 in eight starts as opposed to his 4.54 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .274 when pitching at home. Philadelphia has won 6 straight games on the road with Suarez on the mound with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. He faces a Pirates team that is scoring only 2.9 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .187 batting average, .249 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .549 during that span. They rank 25th in MLB at home against left-handed starting pitchers since the beginning of June in both weighted on-base percentage and weighted Runs Created. Pittsburgh has lost 8 of their last 10 home games against left-handed starting pitchers. The Pirates have lost 6 of their last 8 games after scoring two runs or less in their last game. They have lost 40 of their last 51 games after losing the first two games of a series — and they have lost 27 of their last 30 games after losing two games in a row by two runs or less. They have also lost 5 of their last 6 games at home. They counter with Keller who has a 3-7 record along with a 4.55 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP in 19 games which include 17 starts. The right-hander has not been as effective at home where has a 4.66 ERA and a .277 opponent’s batting average in nine games and eight starts at home as compared to his more modest 4.44 ERA and .271 opponent’s batting average on the road. Pittsburgh has lost 7 of their last 8 home games with Keller on the mound.
FINAL TAKE: The Phillies have a .277 batting average in their last seven games — and they have won 23 of their last 34 games against right-handed starting pitchers. Philadelphia has also won 6 of their last 7 games against the Pirates. 25* MLB Saturday Night Fox-TV Game of the Month with the money-line on the Philadelphia Phillies (905) versus the Pittsburgh Pirates (906) listing both starting pitchers Ranger Suarez and Mitch Keller. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-29-22 |
BC v. Saskatchewan +1 |
Top |
32-17 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Saskatchewan Roughriders (684) minus the points versus the British Columbia Lions (683). THE SITUATION: Saskatchewan (4-3) has lost two straight games after their 31-21 upset loss at home to Toronto as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday. British Columbia (4-1) has won four of their first five games this season after their 17-12 win against Hamiton as a 9.5-point favorite last Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ROUGHRIDERS MINUS THE POINTS: Saskatchewan has been dealing with a COVID outbreak over the last two weeks — but head coach Craig Dickenson claims that his team is now on the “tail end” of the challenge and is getting back to full strength. Dickenson was forced to turn to third-string quarterback Jake Dolega last week with both Cody Fajardo and Mason Fine out with positive COVID tests. Fajardo has been confirmed as tonight’s starter. The Roughriders were in position to pull the upset last week in their second-straight game against the Argonauts. They led 15-11 at halftime and went into the fourth quarter with a 21-14 lead. They had the ball trailing by a 24-21 score late in the game — but a disastrous fumble was returned for a 10-yard defensive touchdown to ice the game for Toronto. This remains a talented Saskatchewan team with Grey Cup aspirations after losing to the two-time champions Winnipeg Blue Bombers in the West Division Final last year by a 21-17 score. The Roughriders have bounced back to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after losing their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after getting upset at home as a favorite by double-digits. Saskatchewan has lost two in a row while not covering the point spread in either game — but they have then covered the point spread in 4 straight games after losing two of their last three games and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after only covering the point spread once in their last three games. They return home where they are 3-1 this season while scoring 30.0 Points-Per-Game and outscoring their guests by +10.8 PPG. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home. British Columbia has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. The Lions are getting good play at quarterback from former Ohio Bobcat Nathan O’Rourke in his first season as their starter. But this is just the second game on the road for British Columbia this season after only beating the lowly Ottawa Redblacks by a 34-31 score. British Columbia has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games against West Division foes. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when priced in the +/- 3-point range.
FINAL TAKE: The Lions have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games in July. Saskatchewan has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in July. 25* CFL West Division Game of the Month with the Saskatchewan Roughriders (684) minus the points versus the British Columbia Lions (683). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-29-22 |
Guardians v. Rays -109 |
Top |
4-1 |
Loss |
-109 |
3 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Tampa Bay Rays (968) versus the Cleveland Guardians (967) listing both starting pitchers Jeffrey Springs and Shane Bieber. THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (53-46) has lost five of their last six games after their 3-0 shutout loss at Baltimore yesterday. Cleveland (50-48) has lost four of their last six contests after their 4-2 loss at Boston on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAYS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Tampa Bay has won 5 of their last 6 games after getting shutout in their last game — and they have won 7 of their last 9 games after suffering a shutout loss to a fellow American League East rival. And while the Rays only scratched out four hits against the Orioles, they have then won 27 of their last 39 games after not generating more than four base hits in their last game. Tampa Bay has also won 39 of their last 58 games after losing four or five of their last six games. Now after playing their last seven games on the road, they return home to Tropicana Field for the first time since July 17th — and they have won 4 of their last 5 games at home after being on the road for at least a week. The Rays have won 6 straight games at home against teams with a winning record — and they have won 15 of their last 19 home games after losing three of their last four games. And in their last 60 games at home priced as a money-line favorite up to -150, they have won 41 of these contests. They have also beaten 12 of their last 13 opponents with winning records. Injuries have hit this team hard with over 1000 combined games lost to injury already this season. While they miss their young phenom at shortstop in Wander Franco who is out with a hand injury, most of their injuries have been with their pitching staff. But Tampa Bay continues to be resilient and rely on their top-notch development system. One of the players who they have found off the scrap heap to develop into another positive contributor is Springs who takes the ball for manager Kevin Cash tonight. The coaching staff has helped rely on his change up more this season to great success. The left-hander has a 3-2 record with a 2.50 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP in 68 1/3 innings between stints in the bullpen and as a starter. The deeper sabermetrics do not expect him to continue to suppress runs to that degree — but with his SIERA and xFIP both projecting an ERA of 3.26 moving forward, the numbers underneath the hood validate his outstanding pitching. He has been outstanding at home where he has a 1.76 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .219 in 30 2/3 innings at home in ten appearances which includes five starts. After a stint on the injured list from lower leg tightness, he allowed only one earned run in 4 2/3 innings in his return start on Sunday at Kansas City. Tampa Bay has won 5 of their last 6 games with Springs their starting pitcher when priced in the +/- 125 price range. They have also won 8 of their last 11 games when Springs is their starting pitcher looking to attend a team losing streak. He faces a Guardians lineup that has just a .247 batting average, .298 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .672. Most of their best hitters hit on the left-side of the plate. Since June 1st, Cleveland ranks 29th in MLB in both weighted on-base percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against left-handed starting pitchers. They have lost 6 of their last 8 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The Guardians have also lost 11 of their last 16 games on the road — and they have lost 9 of their last 13 road games with the total set in the 7-7.5 range. They counter with Bieber who has a 4-6 record with a 3.55 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP in 18 starts. The velocity on his four-seam fastball is down 1.7 miles-per-hour this season — and after striking out at an elite-level 33.1% of opposing hitters last season, he is only striking out 24.3% of hitters this year. In his three starts this month, Bieber has a 5.23 ERA. He has been more effective at home where he owns a 1.03 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .224 in seven starts — but his WHIP and an opponent’s batting average rise to 1.22 and .253 marks in his 11 starts on the road. Cleveland has lost 6 of their last 9 games with Bieber pitching as an underdog priced up to +150. He faces a Rays team that has won 4 of their last 5 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower.
FINAL TAKE: Cleveland has lost 19 of their last 26 games against the Rays — and they have lost 7 in a row against them in Tampa Bay. 25* MLB Game of the Month with the money-line on the Tampa Bay Rays (968) versus the Cleveland Guardians (967) listing both starting pitchers Jeffrey Springs and Shane Bieber. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-28-22 |
Mariners v. Astros UNDER 8.5 |
Top |
2-4 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Mariners (917) and the Houston Astros (918) listing both starting pitchers Logan Gilbert and Jose Urquidy. THE SITUATION: Seattle (54-45) has won three games in a row after their 4-2 win against Texas yesterday. Houston (64-35) has lost three games in a row after their 4-2 loss at Oakland on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Mariners have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after winning their last game — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after upsetting a divisional rival in their last game. Seattle has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after winning three games in a row against an AL West opponent. And in their last 7 games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range, the Mariners have played 5 of these games Under the Total. Gilbert gets the start with his 10-4 record along with a 2.77 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP in 20 starts. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he sports a 2.42 ERA and an opponent’s batting average of .224 in 11 starts as opposed to his 3.19 ERA and a .248 opponent’s batting average in nine starts at home. Seattle has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total with Gilbert starting on the road with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range. Houston has played 23 of their last 34 games Under the Total after losing their last game — and they have played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total after not scoring more than two runs in their last contest. And while the Astros have scored only five runs in their last two games, they have played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after not scoring more than three runs in two straight games. Houston has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 18 of their last 27 home games with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. They counter with Urquidy who has a 9-4 record along with a 3.93 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in 18 starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he enjoys a 2.63 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .237 as opposed to his 4.83 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .271 on the road. The Astros have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total with Urquidy on the mound after losing their last game. He faces a Mariners team that has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Seattle has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against divisional rivals. 25* MLB Thursday FS1-TV Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Mariners (917) and the Houston Astros (918) listing both starting pitchers Logan Gilbert and Jose Urquidy. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-26-22 |
Astros v. A's UNDER 7 |
Top |
3-5 |
Loss |
-125 |
3 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 9:40 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (917) and the Oakland A’s (918) listing both starting pitchers Luis Garcia and Frankie Montas. THE SITUATION: Houston (64-33) had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 7-5 loss to the A’s last night. Oakland (36-63) has won four of their last five games.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Under is 40-19-6 in the Astros’ last 65 games after a loss — and the Under is 29-14-1 in their last 44 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Under is also 33-16-4 in Houston’s last 53 games on the road — and they have played 23 of their last 34 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. They have also played 24 of their last 33 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage no higher than 40%. Garcia gets the ball with his 8-5 record with a 3.65 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP in 17 starts. The sabermetrics confirm his good season with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.53 and 3.58 moving forward. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 2.25 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average in .193 in eight starts as opposed to his 4.89 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .219 in nine starts at home. Houston has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total with Garcia their starting pitcher on the road priced at -110 or higher. He faces an A’s team that has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 6 straight Unders against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. Oakland has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after winning their last game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. And while the A’s have played their last two games Over the Total, they have then played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after playing two straight Overs. At home, Oakland is scoring only 2.7 Runs-Per-Game with a .202 batting average, .264 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .580. Montas takes the mound for the A’s to further his 3-9 record despite a 3.16 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in 18 starts. The right-hander has been outstanding at home where he owns a 2.27 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .203 batting average in 11 starts as compared to his 5.01 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .264 when pitching on the road. Oakland has played 10 of their 11 games Under the Total with Montas pitching at home — and they have played 11 of their last 12 games Under the Total with Montas their starting pitcher with the Total set at 7 or less. The A’s have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. Oakland has also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams from the AL West — and the Astros have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against divisional foes.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing in Oakland. Lastly, Houston has played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total when avenging an upset loss as a road favorite. 25* MLB American League West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (917) and the Oakland A’s (918) listing both starting pitchers Luis Garcia and Frankie Montas. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-25-22 |
Nationals v. Dodgers -1.5 |
Top |
4-1 |
Loss |
-143 |
2 h 24 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Dodgers (962) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Washington Nationals (961) listing both starting pitchers Tony Gonsolin and Paolo Espino. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (64-30) has won eight-straight games after their 7-4 victory against San Francisco yesterday. Washington (32-65) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 4-3 victory at Arizona on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DODGERS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Los Angeles has a 17-2 record this month — and their last seven victories have all been by more than one run. The Dodgers have won 45 of their last 62 games after winning their last game — and they have won 9 of their last 10 games after winning at least two in a row against division opponents. Los Angeles has won 53 of their last 68 games at home — and they have won 50 of their last 61 games against teams with a winning percentage no higher than 40%. And while the last time the Dodgers played the Nationals, they lost by a 1-0 score in Washington on May 25th — but they have then won 8 of their last 10 games when avenging a loss where they did not score more than one run. They give the ball to Gonsolin who has an 11-0 record with a 2.02 ERA and a 0.84 WHIP in 17 starts. The right-hander has been outstanding at home where he owns a 1.13 ERA, 0.69 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .130 in eight starts as opposed to his 2.96 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .204. The Dodgers have won 11 straight games at home when Gonsolin is their starting pitcher priced at -150 or higher as the money-line favorite. He faces a Nationals team that is scoring only 3.6 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .217 batting average, .275 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .600 during that span. Washington has lost 37 of their last 52 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. They have also lost 4 of their last 5 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Nationals have lost 17 of their last 20 games even after yesterday’s victory. Washington has lost 36 of their last 51 games after winning their last game. The Nationals have also lost 4 of their last 5 games on the road with the Total set at 7-8.5. They have also lost 46 of their last 60 games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Espino who has an 0-3 record with a 3.57 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in 58 innings this season. The deeper sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.04 and 4.32 moving forward. The Nationals have lost 8 of their last 10 games on the road as a money-line underdog with Espino on the mound. He faces a Dodgers team that is scoring 6.4 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .275 batting average, .350 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .869 during that span. Los Angeles has won 41 of their last 52 home games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: These team trends do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we are laying for this play — but when the Dodgers win, it is usually by more than one run. Los Angeles has played 69 games this season where they were priced above my -150 price threshold. They were upset in 23 of those games — and in their 46 victories in those circumstances, they covered the -1.5 Run-Line 41 times. Washington has been priced as a +145 money-line underdog 47 times this season. They pulled off the upset 15 times — and in their 32 loss, they failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line 26 times. 25* MLB National League Run-Line of the Month with the Los Angeles Dodgers (962) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Washington Nationals (961) listing both starting pitchers Tony Gonsolin and Paolo Espino. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-14-22 |
White Sox +1.5 v. Twins |
Top |
12-2 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 7:40 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Chicago White Sox (969) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Minnesota Twins (970) listing both starting pitchers Johnny Cueto and Sonny Gray. THE SITUATION: Chicago (43-45) has won two straight games and four of their last five after their 2-1 victory at Cleveland yesterday. Minnesota (49-41) has won two of their last three games with their 4-1 win against Milwaukee on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WHITE SOX PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: Chicago their road trip with this four-game series in Minnesota having won 12 of their last 17 games after winning their two previous games on the road against divisional opponents. They have also won 5 of their last 6 games after scoring two runs or less in their last contest. The White Sox have been a disappointment when considering that they entered the season with aspirations of making a deep run in the playoffs. Injuries have not helped their cause. But the most surprising aspect to this team has been their play at home where they are just 19-25 at Guaranteed Rate Field this season. Chicago has been a solid team on the road with a 24-20 record this season which is a pace that teams who typically win 90 or more games enjoy (which is where sports books projected future season win total). The White Sox have won 5 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have won 14 of their last 22 road games with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range. Furthermore, Chicago has won 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they have won 4 straight road games against teams with a winning record. They send out Cueto who has a 3-4 record with a 2.91 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP in 11 games (10 starts). The right-hander has been hot this month with a 1.29 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP in two starts. He has been more effective on the road where he sports a 1.74 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .214 in five starts as opposed to his 3.89 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .257 in six games (five starts). His teams have pulled off 6 straight upsets on the road when he is starting as an underdog priced up to +150. Minnesota has lost 17 of their last 22 games after winning their last contest. They have also lost 10 of their last 13 games after not allowing two runs or less in their last game. They turn to Gray who has a 4-2 record with a 3.03 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP in 12 starts this season. The sabermetrics call for some regression with both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 3.84 and 3.81 moving forward. The Regression Gods may already be making their presence known this month since Gray has been saddled with a 7.45 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP in two starts. The right-hander has not been as effective at home where he owns a 1.20 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average in seven starts as compared to a 0.86 WHIP and .198 opponent’s batting average in five starts. He faces a White Six team that has won 20 of their last 29 road games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: The White Sox have been the money-line underdog 35 times — and they have covered the +1.5 Run-Line in 19 of those games with 13 upset wins and 6 one-runs losses where they covered the +1.5 Run-Line. The Twins have been the money-line favorite 51 times this season — they have failed to cover the -1.5 Run-Line in 32 of those games with 23 upset losses and another 9 one-run wins where they did not cover the -1.5 Run-Line. With the investment price of the variable +1.5 Run-Line not higher than my -150 price threshold, let’s invest and attack. 25* MLB American League Central Run-Line Underdog of the Month with the Chicago White Sox (969) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Minnesota Twins (970) listing both starting pitchers Johnny Cueto and Sonny Gray. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-12-22 |
Reds v. Yankees -1.5 |
Top |
4-3 |
Loss |
-138 |
4 h 42 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the New York Yankees (976) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Cincinnati Reds (975) listing both starting pitchers Gerrit Cole and Graham Ashcroft. THE SITUATION: New York (61-25) has lost two games in a row after their 11-6 loss at Boston on Sunday night. Cincinnati (32-54) has won four games in a row with their 10-5 victory against Tampa Bay on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE YANKEES MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: New York has bounced back to win 19 of their last 26 games after a loss — and they have won 14 of their last 16 games after losing two of their last three games. Additionally, the Yankees have won 4 straight games after allowing at least eight runs in their last game — and they have won 9 of their last 11 games after playing a game where at least 15 combined runs were scored. Furthermore, New York has won 26 of their last 34 games after an off day — including ten of those eleven circumstances this season. Now after being on the road for their last ten games, they return home to play at Yankee Stadium for the first time since June 29th. The Bronx Bombers have won 34 of their 43 games at home this season — and they have won 36 of their last 51 games at home after being on the road for at least seven days. The Yankees have also won 17 of their last 18 games at home when priced as a favorite at -200 or higher. They have won 13 of their last 16 games in Interleague play — and they are blasting National League pitching this season by scoring 9.2 Runs-Per-Game with a .328 batting average, .405 on-base percentage, and an OPS of 1.047 in their five interleague games this year. Cole gets the call on the mound tonight with the motivation to redeem himself from allowing five runs in six innings of work in his last start at Boston on Thursday. The ace right-hander has an 8-2 record with a 3.26 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP in 17 starts. The sabermetrics are bullish with month his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 2.98 and 2.95 moving forward. Cole comes back home to Yankee Stadium where he enjoys a 2.31 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .196 in eight starts as opposed to his 4.25 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .203 in his nine starts on the road. It is not common for Cole to be on the hill in games when the oddsmakers install the Total at 8.5 or higher — and his teams have won 16 of their last 20 games when he is the starter with the Total set from 8.5-10. Cincinnati has won five of their last seven games — but they have then lost 6 of their last 8 games after winning five or six of their last seven. The Reds go back on the road where they are only scoring 3.4 Runs-Per-Game with a .226 batting average, .278 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .616. They have lost 38 of their last 56 games on the road — and they have lost 14 of their last 16 games on the road when priced as a money-line underdog from +175 to +250. They have also lost 40 of their last 55 games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Ashcraft who has a 4-2 record with a 4.35 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP in nine starts. The rookie right-hander has been at his best at home where he sports a 2.67 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .248 in five starts — but in his four starts on the road, he has been saddled with a 6.98 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .302. He faces a hot-hitting Yankees team that is scoring 6.7 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven contests with a .291 batting average, .365 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .884 in that span.
FINAL TAKE: These team trends do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we are laying for this play. New York has played 54 games this season when they were priced as a money-line favorite higher than my -150 price threshold — and they have won and covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 27 of those games with 15 upset losses and 12 wins by just one run. The Yankees went through a stretch where I did not consider them reliable laying the -1.5 Run-Line — but in their last 10 games when priced above my -150 price threshold, they have covered the -1.5 Run-Line 6 times with only one victory by just one run. Cincinnati has played 40 games priced as a money-line underdog at +145 or higher — they have lost 23 of these games by more than one run with only five losses by one run. In their last 13 games when priced as a money-line underdog priced at +145 or higher, they have lost and not covered the +1.5 Run-Line in 8 of those games — and none of their losses have been by one run. Let’s lower the investment price on the Yankees by taking the -1.5 Run-Line option. 25* MLB Interleague Run-Line of the Month with the New York Yankees (976) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Cincinnati Reds (975) listing both starting pitchers Gerrit Cole and Graham Ashcroft. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-30-22 |
Twins +1.5 v. Guardians |
Top |
3-5 |
Loss |
-145 |
1 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 1:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Minnesota Twins (959) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Cleveland Guardians (960) listing both starting pitchers Chris Archer and Shane Bieber. THE SITUATION: Minnesota (43-35) has lost two of their last three games after their 7-6 loss to the Guardians yesterday in 10 innings yesterday. Cleveland (38-34) has won two of their last three games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TWINS PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: Minnesota scored three runs in the top of the 10th inning yesterday — but their bullpen blew the save by allowing four runs in the bottom of the 10th inning to take the loss. The Twins have won 16 of their last 21 games after a loss — and they have won 7 of their last 11 games after blowing a save in their last game. Minnesota has still won 6 of their last 8 games on the road against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Archer who has a 2-3 record with a 3.14 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in 14 starts this season. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he has a 2.76 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .213 in seven starts as compared to his 3.54 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .219 in seven starts at home. He has been outstanding this month with a 2-1 record along with a 1.57 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP in five starts. While Archer does not pitch deep into games and usually does not pitch around the batting order more than twice, he will be supported by a Twins bullpen that has a 2.38 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP in the last seven days. His teams have won 6 of their last 9 games with him pitching with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range — and they have won 6 of their last 9 games when he is the starting pitcher for a day game. He faces a Cleveland team that ranks 18th in MLB in the weighted Runs Created metric when playing at home against right-handed starting pitchers and 20th in weighted On-Base Percentage when at home against right-handed pitching. In their last seven games, the Guardians are scoring only 2.7 Runs-Per-Game with a .227 Batting Average, .272 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .586. Cleveland has lost 5 of their last 6 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Guardians had lost five straight games before winning two of their last three games in the middle three games of this five-game series. But Cleveland has still lost 5 of their last 7 games at home. They counter with Bieber who has a 3-4 record along with a 3.07 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in 14 starts. The right-hander has been most effective on the road where he has a 2.51 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .242 in nine starts — but in his five starts at home, he has a 4.23 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .257. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last season when Bieber had a 2.91 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and .211 opponent’s batting average in nine starts but a 3.51 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .253 in seven starts at home. He faces a hot-hitting Twins lineup that is scoring 5.3 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .275 Batting Average, .332 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .812 during that span. Minnesota has still beaten the Guardians in 6 of their last 8 meetings.
FINAL TAKE: All of the Twins last five losses have been only one run — and four straight Cleveland victories as well as five of their last six games have been by just one run. 25* MLB American League Central Run-Line of the Month is with the Minnesota Twins (959) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Cleveland Guardians (960) listing both starting pitchers Chris Archer and Shane Bieber. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-26-22 |
Avalanche v. Lightning +105 |
Top |
2-1 |
Loss |
-100 |
19 h 24 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the Tampa Bay Lightning (32) versus the Colorado Avalanche (31) in Game Six of the Stanley Cup Finals. THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (64-29-10) staved off elimination on the road in the Avalanche’s Ball Arena with their 3-2 victory in Game Five on Friday. Colorado (71-22-7) has lost two of the last three games in this series but still holds a 3-2 lead.
REASONS TO TAKE THE LIGHTNING WITH THE MONEY-LINE: I expected this to be a seven-game series before the puck dropped for Game One — and now that Tampa Bay return home to Amalie Arena after foiling the Avalanche’s attempt to lift the Stanley Cup on Friday, I sill expect the title to be decided in the seventh game. This has been a close series with both teams owning a blowout win and Colorado winning both games that went into overtime. Now the experience of this corps group of Lightning players really begins to kick in. Tampa Bay has played 70 playoff games over the last three seasons while winning the last two Stanley Cups. They have won 8 of their last 11 games after a win. They have also won 18 of their last 25 games after winning their last game by just one goal — and they have won 10 of their last 12 games after winning their last game on the road by one goal. Additionally, the Lightning have won 38 of their last 54 games after not allowing more than two goals in their last game. Tampa Bay has held the Avalanche to just seven goals in the last three games of this series — and lowering scoring games is their recipe for success. The Lightning have won 50 of their last 69 games after playing two straight Unders. Back at home, Tampa Bay has won 41 of their last 57 games — and they have won 9 straight home games in these playoffs. Playing at home gives head coach Jon Cooper the advantage of the last line change which is critical in this series. Cooper has two elite defensive forward groups — and at home, he can play the Anthony Cirelli, Brandon Hagel, and Alex Killorn group against Colorado’s top forward line featuring Nathan MacKinnon. That group enjoyed a 77% expected goal share last round against the New York Rangers. This team also has a big edge between the pipes in goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy who stopped 35 of the 37 shots he faced in Game Five. He posted +0.42 Goals Saved Above Expectation — and he has a +14.12 GSAx in this postseason. After the disastrous Game Two when the Lightning defense let him down, Vasilevskiy has stopped 106 of the 113 shots he has faced for a .934 save percentage. In his ten playoff games at home this year, last year’s Conn Smythe Award winner for winning Most Valuable Player in the postseason has a 1.82 Goals-Against-Average and a .944 save percentage. Avalanche goalie Darcy Kuemper is a weak link for his team — and he demonstrated that on Friday by letting the slap shot from Jan Rutta slip between his arm and his pads to let the first goal in. The expected goals metrics projected that shot only had a 1.2% chance of scoring. Kuemper posted a -0.9 GSAx mark in Game Five — meaning he played below the expectation of the average goaltender. Kuemper now has a -4.8 GSAx in these playoffs — Colorado is trying to win their first Cup in the MacKinnon and Cole Makar era with below-average goaltending. In his six starts on the road in the playoffs, Kuemper has a 2.98 GAA and a .894 save percentage. This is the first Stanley Cup finals for the MacKinnon/Makar core after not even reaching the Western Conference Finals before this season. They are still learning how to win playoff games against elite competition — and now they face the pressure of blowing a 3-1 lead. Furthermore, they may not be at full strength for Game Six with Valerie Nichushkin questionable after leaving Game Five with an injury — and Andre Burakosky has not played since Game Two of this series after missing Friday’s contest.
FINAL TAKE: Tampa Bay has won 9 of their last 13 games in the Stanley Cup Finals. They have won 34 of their last 51 playoff games when trailing in the series — including nine of their last twelve games during their recent three-year run. They have also won all 4 of their potential elimination games in the postseason in the last three seasons. And in their last 6 Game Sixes in a playoff series, the Lightning have won 5 of these games. 25* NHL Game of the Year with the money-line on the Tampa Bay Lightning (32) versus the Colorado Avalanche (31). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-26-22 |
Dodgers v. Braves +111 |
Top |
5-3 |
Loss |
-100 |
4 h 33 m |
Show
|
At 7:08 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Atlanta Braves (954) with the money-line versus the Los Angeles Dodgers (953) listing both starting pitchers Spencer Strider and Tony Gonsolin. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (42-31) has won five of their last seven games — and 20 of their last 26 — after their 5-3 victory against the Dodgers yesterday. Los Angeles (44-26) had been on a four-game winning streak before the setback.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BRAVES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: This red-hot Atlanta team has won 15 of their last 18 games after a victory — and they have won 12 of their last 14 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. They have also won 11 of their last 13 games at home. They give the ball to Strider who will have something to prove after giving up six runs in 3 2/3 innings of work in his last start against San Francisco on Tuesday. Not only was that the worst start of the season for the rookie, but those six runs matched the six runs he had allowed in his previous eight appearances for the Braves spanning over 30 innings. The fireballer has a 3-2 record this season with a 3.40 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP in 47 2/3 innings. The deeper sabermetrics are bullish with both his SIERA and xFIP both projecting an ERA of 2.72 moving forward. Atlanta has won 3 of his 4 starts this season. Los Angeles has lost 8 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. They have also lost 4 of their last 5 games on the road with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. They counter with Gonsolin who has a 9-0 record with a 1.58 ERA and a 0.82 WHIP in 13 starts. The sabermetrics suggest he is overachieving with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.75 and 3.74 moving forward. The right-hander has been outstanding at home where he has a 0.81 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, and .118 opponent’s batting average in six starts at home — but those numbers rise to a 2.31 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .177 in his seven starts on the road. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last season when Gonsolin had a 2.70 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in seven starts at home but a 3.86 ERA and 144 WHIP in eight games and six starts on the road. The Dodgers have lost 7 of their last 8 road games with Gonsolin on the mound and favored up to a -150 price. Los Angeles has also lost 6 of their last 7 games in Atlanta against the Braves.
FINAL TAKE: Ronald Acuna is getting the day off after leaving yesterday’s game when fouled a ball off his foot — but he should be available for pinch-hitting duty if necessary. The Dodgers are still without Mookie Betts who is on the Injured List with a rib injury. Atlanta has won 11 of their last 13 games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have won 4 of their last 5 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. 25* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Game of the Month with the Atlanta Braves (954) with the money-line versus the Los Angeles Dodgers (953) listing both starting pitchers Spencer Strider and Tony Gonsolin. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-20-22 |
Avalanche v. Lightning -104 |
Top |
2-6 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the money-line on the Tampa Bay Lightning (26) versus the Colorado Avalanche (35) in Game Three of the Stanley Cup Finals. THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (63-29-9) returns home trailing 0-2 in this series after a 7-0 loss on the road against the Avalanche on Saturday. Colorado (70-21-7) has won seven games in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE THE LIGHTNING WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Tampa Bay does not get humiliated like they did on Saturday too often. They have won 8 straight games after getting shutout in their last game — and they have won 10 of their last 15 games after allowing five or more goals in their last contest. The Lightning have won 25 of their last 30 games at home after losing two games in a row — and they have won 4 of their last 5 games after losing two in a row on the road. They return home where they have won 7 straight games in the playoffs — and they have won 40 of their last 55 home games when favored. They have also won 20 of their last 30 home games with the Total set at 6 or higher. Tampa Bay has also won 33 of their last 49 playoff games when trailing in the series. The fault from Game Two lies with the play of the Lightning’s defense rather than goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy. Returning home where head coach Jon Cooper gets to make the final line change will help. Tampa Bay has allowed only five goals in their last five games at home in these playoffs with a .971 save percentage. Darcy Kuemper remains a weak link for the Avalanche despite his shutout on Saturday. The Lightning only put 16 shots on him in Game Two. That will change. Kuemper has a .901 save percentage in 12 playoff games this year. Colorado has also lost 7 of their last 9 road games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Tampa Bay has won 23 of their last 26 games at home when playing with revenge from a same-season loss. They have also won 18 of their last 20 home games when avenging a loss where their opponent scored at least four goals. 25* NHL Monday Television Game of the Year with the money-line on the Tampa Bay Lightning (26) versus the Colorado Avalanche (35). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-16-22 |
Warriors v. Celtics UNDER 210.5 |
Top |
103-90 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 45 m |
Show
|
At 9:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (527) and the Boston Celtics (528) in Game Six of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Golden State (68-35) can win the NBA Championship tonight after taking a 3-2 lead in this series with their 104-94 win at home against the Celtics as a 4-point favorite on Monday. Boston (65-40) returns home looking to stave off elimination after losing three of the last four games in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: I suspect the market has not adapted enough to the fundamental change that has occurred in this series. After holding the Celtics to just 97 and then 94 points in the last two games in this series, the Warriors have found the answers as to how to best deploy their defensive efforts. Golden State is playing tight and aggressive defense that is making things uncomfortable for both Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. The Celtics lack a consistent third scoring option or reliable 3-point shooting to counter these tactics. Let’s remember that Golden State ranked second in the NBA by holding their opponents to just 107 points per 100 possessions in the regular season — despite not playing with Draymond Green for a long stretch. Game Three of this series had 216 combined points scored after Game Two only had 195 combined points scored. The Warriors have held Boston to no more 88, 94, and 97 points in three of their last four games. The lone exception was in Game Three when Boston scored 116 points — fueled by a 47 to 31 edge on the boards. Warriors’ head coach Steve Kerr immediately made his team’s effort on the boards a high priority. After pulling down 15 offensive rebounds in that Game Three, the Celtics have only managed 11 and then 8 offensive boards in the two games since after Kerr cajoled his team to tighten things up. The last two games in this series have had only 204 and 198 combined points scored — and Golden State has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after playing two straight games where no more than 205 combined points were scored. The Warriors’ energy level of defense should continue with the extra day of rest — they have played 20 of their last 27 games Under the Total when playing with two days of rest including seven of those last ten occasions. Golden State was called for 28 personal fouls on Monday with Boston being whistled for only 16 fouls — and the Warriors have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after being called for at least 10 more personal fouls than their opponent. Golden State is scoring only 105.2 points per game in this series with that average dropping to 103.7 PPG in the last three games. One of the dynamics that is contributing to this is the less of a role Jordan Poole is playing. Poole is a liability on defense which has compelled Kerr to give him less playing time. He is averaging just 17 minutes per game in the last two games after only being on the court for 14:17 minutes on Monday mostly to give Stephen Curry a spell. He did score 14 points in Game Five — but three of those points were that buzzer-beating 40-footer at the end of the third quarter. Golden State has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total as an underdog. Boston has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after losing two games in a row — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after not covering the point spread in two straight games. They have also played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 95 points in their last game. Additionally, the Celtics have played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total when playing with two days of rest — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total when committing at least 10 fewer personal fouls than their opponent in their last game.
FINAL TAKE: Boston has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total when playing with double-revenge from two straight losses by double-digits to their opponent. 25* NBA Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (527) and the Boston Celtics (528). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-15-22 |
Lightning v. Avalanche UNDER 6 |
Top |
3-4 |
Loss |
-100 |
6 h 40 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Lightning (11) and the Colorado Avalanche (12) in Game One of the Stanley Cup Finals. THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (63-28-8) has won four straight games after defeating the New York Rangers by a 2-1 score to end the Eastern Conference Finals in six games. Colorado (68-21-7) has won five games in a row after completing their four-game sweep against Edmonton with their 6-5 victory on the road in overtime back on June 6th.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: After showing some rust to begin their series with the Rangers, the Lightning tightened things up on defense by only allowing five combined goals over their last four games to take control of that series. Tampa Bay gave up only one goal in each of their last three games. The Lightning have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a win. Additionally, they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not scoring more than two goals in their last game — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than two goals in their last game. Goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy has a .928 save percentage in the playoffs with +12.7 goals saved above expectation. Tampa Bay goes back on the road where they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 10 road games Under the Total as an underdog. The Lightning expect to get back forward Brayden Point who has not played since Game Seven in the opening round of the playoffs against Toronto. Point is a great two-way player — but his offensive game is predicated on his speed which will be difficult for him to regain given his time off and the lingering effects of his leg injury. Colorado has played 14 of their last 22 games Under the Total after winning their last game in overtime. The Avalanche have also played 4 straight Unders after allowing five or more goals in their last game. Colorado may be rusty after not playing for nine days after completing their sweep against the Oilers. Tampa Bay only scored two goals in each of the first two games last round which may have been a result of them not being sharp after an extended break after they swept Florida in the previous round. But the defensive pair of Cole Makar and Devon Toews should continue to play outstanding defense after holding the powerful Edmonton offensive attack led by Connor McDavid to just two goals in Games Two and Three of that series. Head coach Jared Bednar has the advantage of getting to play this pair against the Lightning top forward line of Nikita Kucherov, Ondrej Palat, and Steven Stamkos. This will present a problem for head coach Jon Cooper since his third forward line does not present much of a scoring threat. But that forward line of Brandon Hagel, Anthony Cirelli, and Alex Killorn has been stout on defense this postseason by allowing only 1.26 expected goals allowed per 60 minutes -- and they posted an expected goals share of 77.6% against the Rangers. The second forward line gets Point back — but I don’t expect him to regain his scoring prowess immediately. For the Avalanche, they are still without Nazem Kadri who had his thumb broken last round. He may return later in the series.
FINAL TAKE: Colorado won both regular-season meetings between these two teams — and Tampa Bay has played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total when playing with double-revenge against their opponent. 25* NHL Wednesday Television Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Lightning (11) and the Colorado Avalanche (12). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-14-22 |
Angels v. Dodgers -1.5 |
Top |
0-2 |
Win
|
108 |
4 h 18 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Dodgers (982) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Los Angeles Angels (981) listing both starting pitchers Tony Gonsolin and Noah Syndergaard. THE SITUATION: The Dodgers (37-23) have lost three in a row after their 2-0 loss to the Angels on Sunday. The Angels (29-33) have lost two of their last three games after a 4-1 loss at home to the New York Mets on Sunday night.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DODGERS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE:
|
06-13-22 |
Celtics +4 v. Warriors |
Top |
94-104 |
Loss |
-110 |
33 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 9:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (525) plus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (526) in Game Five of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Boston (65-39) looks to rebound from their 107-97 upset loss as a 4-point favorite at home on Friday. Golden State (67-35) evened this series at 2-2.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS PLUS THE POINTS: Boston only made 40% of their shots on Friday after nailing 48.7% of their shots on their home court in Game Three. Jayson Tatum had an off night — while he scored 23 points and made 4 of his 8 shots from behind the arc, he was just 8 of 23 from the field overall. The Celtics got out-worked on the boards. After dominating the Warriors in Game Three by out-rebounding them by a 47 to 31 margin, they let the smaller team grab 55 boards to their 42 boards on Friday. Don’t blame Robert Williams III who pulled down 12 rebounds and had a +/- rating of +6 when he was on the court. The silver lining for Boston was that the Time Lord played 31:27 minutes in Game Four despite his nagging knee injury — and now he gets two days off to prepare for Game Five. Boston has been consistently reliable after subpar efforts. The Celtics have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after a point spread loss. Boston has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a double-digit loss. Furthermore, the Celtics have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 34 games after a low-scoring game where no more than 205 combined points were scored. The extra day of rest should help as this series gets back to the two days off between games. Boston is the younger team and the extra day should help them be fresh again where they can use their energy to get back to controlling the boards. Boston has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games when playing with two days of rest. The Celtics have been one of the best teams playing away from home all season — and in the postseason. They are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games on the road — and they are 22-7-1 ATS in their last 30 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Boston is also 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 road games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games when getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Golden State got yet another superman effort from Stephen Curry who scored 43 points on 14 of 26 shooting on Friday. Can he keep carrying the Warriors in seemingly every game? As we predicted, head coach Steve Kerr gave Kevon Looney more court time on Friday to address the rebounding disadvantage — and he responded with 11 boards in his 28:10 minutes up action, up 11 1/2 minutes from Wednesday. But the problem with Looney on the court is that he offers nothing on the offensive end — so Boston head coach Ime Udoka should have his team prepared to expose this liability. A lingering concern for the Warriors is that Draymond Green continues to provide little as well — he missed six of his seven shots for 2 points in Game Four after scoring only 2 points in Game Three. Green’s +/- rating on Friday was 0 — and the Warriors simply cannot win this series if they are not outscoring the Celtics when he is on the court. Golden State has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games after a win on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after an upset victory on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after an upset win on the road by 10 or more points.
FINAL TAKE: Boston is comfortable playing the Warriors in their building as they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games on the road against them. And in their last 7 games when avenging a double-digit loss at home to their opponent, they have covered the point spread in 5 of these games. 25* NBA Game of the Year with the Boston Celtics (525) plus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (526). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-12-22 |
Mets v. Angels OVER 8.5 |
Top |
4-1 |
Loss |
-120 |
2 h 53 m |
Show
|
At 7:08 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Mets (979) and the Los Angeles Angels (980) listing both starting pitchers Taijaun Walker and Patrick Sandoval. THE SITUATION: The New York Mets (39-22) have lost three of their last four games after their 11-6 loss in Los Angeles to the Angels in the second game of this series. Los Angeles (29-32) has now won two of their last three games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Mets have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after allowing at least five or more runs in their last game. New York has played three straight Overs — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after playing three or more straight Overs. The Over is also 5-1-1 in their last 7 games on the road — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total as an underdog priced up to +150. The Mets are dealing with a tired bullpen that has pitched nine innings in the last two games — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after their bullpen has pitched nine or more innings in their last two games. New York’s receivers surrendered six runs last night — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total when their bullpen allowed four or more earned runs in their last game. Walker gets the ball for them tonight. He has a 3-2 record with a 3.28 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in 9 starts. The sabermetrics are not encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.94 and 4.58 moving forward. His ERA on the road rises to a 3.41 mark -- and that coincides with the disparate home/road splits he was saddled with last season. While Walker had a 3.46 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .198 in 16 games (15 starts) at home, those numbers rose to a 5.82 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .258 in 14 starts on the road. The Mets have played 5 of their last 8 road games Over the Total with Walker the starting pitcher and priced up to +150. Walker’s teams have also played 7 straight Over when he is the starting pitcher in Interleague play. Walker faces an Angels team that ranks sixth in baseball in both weighed On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created (wRC) when playing at home against left-handed starting pitchers. Los Angeles got Mike Trout back in the lineup last night — and he bashed two home runs to lead the scoring attack. The Angels banged out five home runs last night — and they have played 3 of their 4 games this season Over the Total after hitting four or more home runs in their last game. Los Angeles has also played 18 of their last 25 games at home Over the Total after losing five or six of their last seven games. This team has played 25 of their last 37 games Over the Total in June. They counter with Sandoval who has a 3-1 record along with a 2.81 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP. The left-hander is walking too many batters — and both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.31 and 4.08 moving forward. His ERA bumps up to 3.00 in five starts at home this season. Last season, Sandoval had a 3-6 record along with a 3.62 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP in 77 innings — but in his 48 1/3 innings at home, those numbers rose to a 3.91 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP. The Angels have played 7 of their last 10 home games Over the Total with Sandoval pitching as a money-line favorite priced at -110 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: The Mets are hitting right now — they are scoring 5.7 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .270 Batting Average and a .754 OPS over that span. New York has played 4 straight Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher — and the Over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games against left-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the New York Mets (979) and the Los Angeles Angels (980). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-11-22 |
Rangers v. Lightning UNDER 5.5 |
Top |
1-2 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 27 m |
Show
|
At 8:07 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Rangers (53) and the Tampa Bay Lightning (54) in Game Six of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (62-28-8) has won the last three games in this series after their 3-1 victory in Game Five on Thursday. New York (62-31-8) looks to stave off elimination to force a decisive Game Seven tonight.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Lightning have gained control of the series by being content in lower-scoring games where they control puck possession and limit the turnovers that were giving the Rangers odd-man rushes in the first two games of this series. Tampa Bay has only allowed two goals in the last two games — but they have scored only five goals at even strength in those two contests. Just as in Game Four, the final Lightning goal was an empty-netter with under a minute to go. Tampa Bay has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a victory — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than two goals in their last contests. Now the Lightning return home where they have played 4 straight Unders. They have played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total when leading in a playoff series — and they have also played 7 straight home games Under the Total in the playoffs in closeout opportunities. Andrei Vasilevskiy has six shutouts in those seven close-out games for the Lightning. After having some early timing issues in this series with his blocker, he has been sensational during the three-game winning streak. In his seven starts at home in the playoffs, Vasilevskiy has a 1.79 Goals-Against-Average and a .946 save percentage. New York has seen the Under go 41-19-1 in their last 61 games after scoring two goals or less in their last game. They have also played 19 of their last 27 road games Under the Total after losing their last game at home. The Rangers have played 22 of their last 29 games Under the Total after playing a game where no more than four combined goals were scored. They go back on the road where they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total — and they have played 21 of their last 29 games on the road Under the Total with the Total set at 5.5. Furthermore, New York has played 4 straight Unders as an underdog. The Rangers have allowed only 36 goals at five-on-five even strength in the playoffs despite the analytics projecting them to give up 3.53 expected goals per 60 minutes. Goalie Igor Shesterkin is the reason for New York's overachieving — he has +16.5 goals saved above expectation at five-on-five even strength in the postseason along with a .929 save percentage.
FINAL TAKE: The Rangers have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total when playing with triple revenge against their opponent -- including all four of those circumstances this season. 25* NHL Eastern Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New York Rangers (53) and the Tampa Bay Lightning (54). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-10-22 |
Warriors +4 v. Celtics |
Top |
107-97 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Golden State Warriors (523) plus the points versus the Boston Celtics (524) in Game Four of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Golden State (66-35) has lost three of their last five games after their 116-100 loss on the road against the Celtics as a 3.5-point underdog on Wednesday in Game Three of the NBA Finals. Boston (65-38) has won five of their last seven games while taking a 2-1 lead in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WARRIORS PLUS THE POINTS: Head coach Steve Kerr identified that the biggest issue his team had in Game Three was getting beat on the boards. The Celtics enjoyed a 47-31 edge on the glass on Wednesday — and while they will likely continue to have an edge in that area, the Warriors need to work harder to minimize that advantage. There are some lineup moves that Kerr can make. But, first and foremost, Golden State needs a better game from Draymond Green after he only pulled down four rebounds before fouling out in what was his worst game in the postseason. Green later defined his own play as “soft,” which is a pretty good indication that he will be addressing the problem himself. In hindsight, it looks like he got caught up in all the technical fouls and officiating talk earlier in the week. He should play better tonight and help his team get into a better offensive flow after dishing out three assists and scoring two points in Game Three. As a point forward, he generates 6.1 Assists-Per-Game with that mark rising to a 7.1 clip in the playoffs. The Warriors have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after scoring no more than 100 points in their last game. Additionally, Golden State has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games as an underdog. Boston nailed 48.3% of their shots in Game Three which was the second-best shooting mark in their last seven games. They are also making 43% of their shots from behind the arc in this series — I do expect that to decline. The Celtics also took 24 shots from the free-throw line on Wednesday was seven more attempts than what Golden State got after the officials were on notice about the Green drama after Game Two. Boston has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 20 home games after a double-digit victory. Furthermore, the Celtics have failed to cover the point spread in 31 of their last 50 home games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 29 of their last 45 home games after a point spread victory. Boston has also failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games at home with the Total set in the 210s. Another concern for Boston tonight is the health of Robert Williams III. The Time Lord was great in Game Three with the Celtics outscoring the Warriors by 21 points with him on the court. But this will be the first time since Game Seven against Miami last round when Williams will be playing on just one day of rest. The knee injury that has slowed him down for months may give him troubles tonight — he was only able to play 14:42 minutes in that crucial game against the Heat on May 29th, almost two weeks ago.
FINAL TAKE: Golden State has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 26 games when avenging a loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss on the road. 25* NBA Friday Television Game of the Year with the Golden State Warriors (523) plus the points versus the Boston Celtics (524). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-09-22 |
Lightning v. Rangers +112 |
Top |
3-1 |
Loss |
-100 |
4 h 42 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the money-line on the New York Rangers (50) versus the Tampa Bay Lightning (49) in Game Five of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: New York (62-30-8) had been on a four-game winning streak but has now lost two in a row after their 4-1 loss on the road against the Lightning on Tuesday. Tampa Bay (61-28-8) has won eight of their last ten games after leveling this series at 2-2.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RANGERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: New York returns home to Madison Square Garden where head coach Gerard Gallant gets the advantage of the final line change. This will allow Gallant to get Mika Zibanejad away from the Lightning forward line of Anthony Cirelli, Alex Killorn, and Brandon Hagel who stymied Zibanejad in the two games in Tampa Bay. Zibanejad scored a goal in both Games One and Two of this series — and his line scored four of the eight goals the Rangers generated at even strength five-on-five. New York has won 9 of their last 12 games after losing their last game by three or more goals — and they have won 11 of their last 13 games after losing two games in a row. Furthermore, while the Rangers did not score more than two goals in the two games in Tampa Bay, they have then won 13 of their last 19 games after not scoring more than two goals in two straight games. And while they allowed seven goals in those games on the road, New York has then won 18 of their last 24 games after allowing at least three goals in two straight games. The Rangers return home where they have won 9 straight playoff games this postseason — and they have won 44 of their last 64 games on home ice. During their eight-game winning streak at home, they have scored 4.38 Goals-Per-Game and held their guests to just 2.00 Goals-Per-Game. They have also won three home games in a row in the playoffs after suffering a loss on the road. Igor Shesterkin is outstanding on home ice where he had a 2.04 Goals-Against-Average and a .948 save percentage in the playoffs after putting up a 1.85 GAA and a .940 save percentage at home in the regular season. Tampa Bay has lost 7 of their last 8 games after winning eight of their last ten games. They will be without forward Brayden Point once again tonight after he was declared out with his lower-body injury despite participating in skating drills the last few days. Andrei Vasilevksiy has not been nearly as effective away from home both in the playoffs and in the regular season. In 30 regular-season games, he had a 2.77 GAA and a .912 save percentage — and he has a 3.03 GAA and a .906 save percentage in eight road starts in the postseason. The Lightning have lost 5 of their last 6 games on the road when favored. They have also lost 4 in a row against the Rangers in Madison Square Garden.
FINAL TAKE: The Rangers may be undermanned with centers Ryan Strome and Filip Chytil both game-time decisions. Even if neither play, I like New York to take a 3-2 series lead. The Rangers have won 10 of their last 13 games at home when avenging a loss — and they have won 8 of their last 9 games when playing with revenge from a loss by one goal on the road. 25* NHL Thursday ESPN Game of the Year with the money-line on the New York Rangers (50) versus the Tampa Bay Lightning (49). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-08-22 |
Warriors v. Celtics -3.5 |
Top |
100-116 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 55 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (522) minus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (521) in Game Three of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Boston (64-38) looks to rebound from their 107-88 loss on the road against the Warriors as a 4.5-point underdog on Sunday. Golden State (66-34) has won six of their last eight games while evening this series at 1-1.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS MINUS THE POINTS: Boston accomplished what they needed in Game One by winning that game and seizing home-court advantage. Head coach Ime Udoka may have kept a few of his planned tricks in this series up his sleeve in Game Two. The Celtics may have been dealing with some fatigue after needing seven games to get by both Miami and Milwaukee in earlier rounds of the playoffs. The two full days off between games will help as this team returns home. Boston has covered the point spread after all 6 of their previous losses in the postseason -- and they have an averaging winning margin of +15.5 Points-Per-Game in those six contests. The Celtics have also covered the point spread in 23 of their last 33 games after a double-digit loss — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 20 games after a double-digit loss on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after not scoring more than 95 points in their last contest. Boston needs to tighten things up in protecting the basketball after committing 18 turnovers in Game Three. The Celtics average 13 turnovers per game on their home court — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their 11 games in the playoffs after committing at least 14 turnovers in their previous game this postseason. Stephen Curry scored 14 of his 29 points off turnovers in Game Two — so his scoring will probably go down if — and when — Boston turns the ball over fewer times tonight. Golden State has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games in the playoffs after a straight-up win this postseason — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing on the road in these playoffs after a straight-up win. The Warriors are 10-1 at home in the postseason — but they are just 3-4 on the road straight-up. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 road games when playing for the second time in five days. Golden State has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher on their home court.
FINAL TAKE: This is a good opportunity to take the Celtics with the narrative that Boston has played poorly on their home court with “just” a 5-4 record in these playoffs. They still have a 33-17 record with a +6.7 PPG at home this season. Boston has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games since March after a loss. And in their two games in the playoffs played at home after a loss, the Celtics beat Milwaukee in Game Two of that series by 23 points before beating Miami in Game Four of the Eastern Conference Finals by 20 points. They are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 opportunities to host the Warriors at TD Garden. 25* NBA Wednesday Television Game of the Year with the Boston Celtics (522) minus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (521). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-07-22 |
Rockies v. Giants -1.5 |
Top |
5-3 |
Loss |
-100 |
5 h 18 m |
Show
|
At 9:45 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the San Francisco Giants (910) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Colorado Rockies (909) listing both starting pitchers Carlos Rodon and German Marquez. THE SITUATION: San Francisco (29-24) has won two of their last three games after their 5-1 victory at Miami on Sunday. Colorado (23-21) has lost four in a row and nine of their last 12 games with their 8-7 loss at home to Atlanta on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: San Francisco is only five games over .500 — but they have a net run differential of +0.5 Runs-Per-Game. They have won 42 of their last 60 games after scoring at least five runs in their last contest — and they have won 22 of their last 30 games after an off day. They return home to Oracle Park where they have won 45 of their last 62 home games against teams with a losing record. Manager Gabe Kapler gives the ball to Carlos Rodon who has a 4-4 record with a 3.44 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in 10 starts. The deeper sabermetrics are very encouraging on the left-hander with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting a 3.25 and 3.30 ERA respectively moving forward. Rodon has 70 strikeouts in 55 innings. Three years removed from Tommy John surgery, Rodon is clicking on all cylinders with an organization in the Giants that consistently coaches up its pitching staff. Rodon has done his best work at home where he owns a 2.35 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .205. His teams have won 10 of their last 15 home games with Rodon pitching as a money-line favorite priced at -110 or higher. He should thrive against a Rockies team that has lost 6 of their last 7 games after left-handed starting pitchers. Colorado has lost 9 of their last 12 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have lost 9 of their last 13 games after allowing at least eight runs in their last contest. Additionally, the Rockies have lost 8 straight games after an off day — and they have lost 16 of their last 21 opening games to a new series. Now Colorado goes back on the road where they have lost 15 of their 22 games this season — and they have lost all 7 road games when they are an underdog priced at +150 or higher. They are scoring just 3.0 Runs-Per-Game on the road with a .242 Batting Average, .294 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .638. The lineup misses Kris Bryant who will likely remain on the Injured List through the All-Star break. They have lost 7 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Marquez who has a 1-5 record along with a 6.71 ERA and a 1.62 WHIP in 10 starts. That ERA is the highest in MLB for qualified starting pitchers. He has already served up 18 homers in his 55 innings. It has been even worse on the road where he has a 6.89 ERA and a 1.72 WHIP in three starts. What is concerning for the ground-ball pitcher is that why had a 3.67 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .214 in 18 starts last year, those numbers sky-rocketed to a 5.38 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .277 in 14 starts on the road. The Rockies have lost 5 of their last 6 games with Marquez on the mound as a money-line underdog. He faces a Giants team that is scoring 5.9 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games — and they have won 4 of their last 5 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. Colorado has also lost 22 of their last 28 games against San Francisco.
FINAL TAKE: These team trends do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we are laying in this game. Scoring is down — and so are my investments in Run-Line favorites with teams like the Yankees and Astros not doing well covering these spreads. The Giants have played 13 games where they were favored at a price higher than my -150 threshold — while they have lost six of those games (not so good), all seven of their wins have been by more than one run (that’s good). Colorado has been priced as a money-line underdog of +145 or higher 12 times this season — they have only have two upset wins in those games but all ten of their losses have been by multiple runs. This is when we want to invest in Run-Lines: San Francisco should win — and when they win (and the Rockies lose), it is usually by more than one run. So, let’s lower the investment price with the -1.5 Run-Line. 25* MLB National League West Run-Line of the Month with the San Francisco Giants (910) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Colorado Rockies (909) listing both starting pitchers Carlos Rodon and German Marquez. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-04-22 |
Avalanche v. Oilers OVER 7 |
Top |
4-2 |
Loss |
-100 |
7 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Colorado Avalanche (37) and the Edmonton Oilers (38) in Game Three of the Western Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Colorado (66-21-7) took a 2-0 lead in this series with their 4-0 shutout victory on Thursday. Edmonton (57-33-6) returns home having been on a four-game winning streak before the setback.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Avalanche offensive attack kept rolling in Game Two as they scored at least four goals for the fifth time in their last six games. They have scored 12 goals against the shaky Oilers defense after their 8-6 victory in Game One of this series. Colorado has played 17 of their last 24 games Over the Total after winning their last two games at home. They have also played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after winning their last two games by two or more goals. They peppered Edmonton goalie Mike Smith with 40 shots — that was the fifth straight game where they generated at least 34 shots. The Avalanche have played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total after putting at least 33 shots on net in three straight games. Now they go back on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total. Colorado has only scored two goals in their nine Power Play chances in this series which is a bit lower than their 31.6% success rate with the man-advantage in the postseason. With Darcy Kuemper questionable with the upper-body injury that compelled him to exit early in the second period in Game One, it will likely be Pavel Francouz between the pipes again tonight. This will be his sixth career start in the playoffs on the road — and he has just a .901 save percentage in these six previous appearances on the road in the playoffs. Edmonton has played 13 of their last 20 games Over the Total after a loss on the road — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a loss on the road by more than one goal. The Oilers have also played 12 of their last 15 games at home Over the Total after a loss by three or more goals. They return home where they have played 17 of their last 24 games Over the Total. They have scored at least four goals in four of their last five games on home ice. They have also played 4 of their last 5 playoff games Over the Total as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Edmonton has played 12 of their last 17 games Over the Total when avenging a loss on the road — and they have played 11 of their last 17 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from two straight losses to their opponent by more than one goal. 25* NHL Saturday TNT Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Colorado Avalanche (37) and the Edmonton Oilers (38). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-03-22 |
Lightning -117 v. Rangers |
Top |
2-3 |
Loss |
-117 |
4 h 28 m |
Show
|
At 8:07 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Tampa Bay Lightning (35) versus the New York Rangers (36) in Game Two of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (59-27-8) looks to bounce back from their 6-2 loss on the road against the Rangers on Wednesday. New York (61-28-8) has won five of their last six games after taking a 1-0 lead in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE LIGHTNING WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Tampa Bay had been on a six-game winning streak before losing to the Rangers to begin this series. The eight-day layoff they earned after sweeping Florida probably left them rusty. But now after a spirited practice yesterday, the Lightning should be laser-focused tonight — and this team has been extremely reliable in bounce back situations. Tampa Bay has won 17 straight games after a loss in the playoffs -- and it all starts with goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy. Last year’s Conn Smythe winner was the starting goaltender for all 17 of those playoff victories — he has allowed on 28 goals in those contests for a sensational 1.47 Goals-Against-Average and a .942 save percentage. He has five shutouts in those 17 games as well. Additionally, the Lightning have won 40 of their last 52 games after a loss by three or more goals — and they have won 7 of their last 9 games after a loss by four or more goals. Furthermore, Tampa Bay has won 38 of their last 55 games after allowing at least five goals in their last contest. In the second games of a new playoff series, head coach Jon Cooper’s team has won 14 of these last 17 showdowns. They have also won 6 straight games when trailing in the series. New York has scored 17 goals in their last three games after head coach Gerard Gallant called them out for their lackluster effort in Game Five of their series with Carolina last round. They have won each of their last three games by at least three goals — but they have then lost 6 of their last 9 games after winning three in a row by two or more goals. They have also lost 24 of their last 38 games at home after scoring at least four goals in their last contest. And in their last 8 games as an underdog, they have lost 6 of these contests.
FINAL TAKE: Tampa Bay has won 12 of their last 13 games on the road when avenging a loss on the road by two or more goals. 25* NHL Friday ESPN Game of the Year with the money-line on the Tampa Bay Lightning (35) versus the New York Rangers (36). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-03-22 |
Diamondbacks v. Pirates +106 |
Top |
8-6 |
Loss |
-100 |
0 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Pittsburgh Pirates (908) versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (907) listing both starting pitchers J.T. Brubaker and Merrill Kelly. THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (22-27) has won three in a row and five of their last seven after their 8-4 upset win in Los Angeles against the Dodgers on Wednesday. Arizona (25-27) has lost five of their last seven games after their 6-0 shutout loss at home against Atlanta on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PIRATES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: If you need more evidence that this Pittsburgh team is finally on the right path — how about them coming off a three-game sweep in Los Angeles against the Dodgers? The excellent farm system of the Pirates’ organization is finally starting to pay off. Pittsburgh has one of the better closers in the game right now in David Bednar — and they have only committed one error in their last four games after going the last two games in LA with a fielding mistake. The Pirates have won 6 of their last 9 games after not committing an error in two straight games. Now after completing their six-game road trip, they return home where they have won 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a losing record. The starting pitching staff remains an issue — but J.T. Brubaker is a fine starting pitcher who has a 4.15 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP in 10 starts despite an 0-4 record. In four starts at home this season, his ERA and WHIP drop to 3.86 and 1.33 marks. Last season in 11 starts at home, Brubaker had a 3.79 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .231. He had a 5.36 ERA last season — but that number dropped to a 3.86 ERA when playing teams with a losing record. Brubaker always had potential if he could stop serving up gopher balls, Last year, he allowed 2.06 home runs per nine innings. This season, that home run rate has plummeted to a 0.94 clip per nine innings. The Pirates have won 3 of his 4 starts at home this season — and they have won 3 of his 4 starts when he is pitching with five or six days of rest. He should have success against this slumping Diamondbacks lineup that is scoring only 3.1 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .229 Batting Average, .294 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .647. Arizona has lost 18 of their last 22 games after getting shutout in their last game — and they have lost 31 of their last 36 road games after not scoring more than two runs in their last game. Now after playing their last nine games at home, they go back on the road where they have lost 6 of their last 7 games when favored. The Diamondbacks should not have lost 110 games last year given their roster — but this is still a mediocre team at best in the beginnings of a long rebuild. They have lost 4 of their last 5 games after playing their last seven games at home. They have also lost 50 of their last 60 road games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range — and they have lost 5 of their last 7 road games this season with the Total set at 8-8.5. They counter with Merrill Kelly who has a 3-3 record with a 3.67 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP in ten starts. The sabermetrics are not encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.24 and 4.08 moving forward. In his four starts on the road, his ERA rises to a 5.40 mark. His disparate home/road splits are consistent with last season where he had a 3.78 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and .244 opponent’s batting average in 13 starts at home but a 5.18 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, and .291 opponent’s batting average on the road. After a jump in velocity that carried over from spring training, the speed on his four-seamer has dipped again — and he has been saddled with 9.00 ERA and a 2.06 WHIP in his last four starts. He has surrendered at least three earned runs in each of his last four starts — and he has only 13 strikeouts in those 17 innings of work. The Diamondbacks have lost 10 of their last 16 road games with Kelly pitching with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range.
FINAL TAKE: The Pirates are scoring 5.4 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games — and they have won 5 in a row against right-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB National League Underdog of the Month with the money-line on the Pittsburgh Pirates (908) versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (907) listing both starting pitchers J.T. Brubaker and Merrill Kelly. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-31-22 |
Oilers +1.5 v. Avalanche |
Top |
6-8 |
Loss |
-147 |
3 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 8:07 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Edmonton Oilers (27) plus the +1.5 Puck-Line versus the Colorado Avalanche (28) in Game One of the Western Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Edmonton (57-31-6) closed out their series with Calgary in five games after their 5-4 win in overtime on the road on Thursday. Colorado (64-21-7) has won three of their last four contests with their 3-2 victory on the road against St. Louis to end that series in six games on Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE OILERS PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: I don’t play money-line favorites (or underdogs) when the favorite is priced higher than -150 in both MLB and the NHL. I am comfortable then looking at the Run-Line in baseball — but I usually shy away from the puck line in hockey given the impact of the potential pulled goalie at the end of the game. However, when I think there is a live dog — and the Puck-Line price is no higher than -150 — then I am willing to take my chances with the empty net for a team that could win the game outright (and the Oilers could certainly score when pulling their goalie to tie the game or pull within one goal). I think Edmonton is underrated — and this series could be the platform for Connor McDavid to become a mainstream superstar. McDavid has 26 points in 12 games already in these playoffs — and he has simply sensational at times in these playoffs. The Oilers did just win four straight games against a good Calgary team. They have now won six of their last seven games in the playoffs. Edmonton has won 19 of their last 26 games after a win — and they have won 18 of their last 24 games after a victory against a divisional opponent. The Oilers have also won 6 of their last 7 games after scoring at least five goals in their last game. They stay on the road where they have won 5 of their last 7 games — and they have won 4 of their last 5 road games as an underdog. And despite some sketchy moments at times from goalie Mike Smith, the 40-year-old has posted an impressive +8.8 goals-saved above expectation in the playoffs to go along with his .927 save percentage. Smith is the better goaltender in the mini-battle between himself and the Avalanche’s Darcy Kuemper. The 32-year-old has a -3.0 goals saved above expectation mark and a .904 save percentage in these playoffs. He is a weak link for this team that did not take a step forward at this position when they let Philip Grubauer sign with Seattle in the offseason. Colorado has also suffered a big injury on their blue line with the season-ending injury to Samuel Girard early in Game Three against the Blues.
FINAL TAKE: Colorado has been consistently priced above my -150 threshold for the entire postseason. But in their last nine playoff games, they have won only four of these games by more than one goal. They have been upset twice despite being a big favorite — and they have won three of those games by just one goal. In the Oilers’ last 14 defeats, they lost six of those games by just one goal. With the +1.5 Puck-Line priced right around -150, that is where I find the value — and I prefer getting paid on an Edmonton one-goal loss then take my chances (at the bigger price) that they pull the upset. 25* NHL Puck-Line of the Month is with the Edmonton Oilers (27) plus the +1.5 Puck-Line versus the Colorado Avalanche (28). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-30-22 |
Rangers v. Hurricanes -145 |
Top |
6-2 |
Loss |
-145 |
1 h 53 m |
Show
|
At 8:07 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the money-line on the Carolina Hurricanes (22) with the money-line versus the New York Rangers (21) in Game Seven of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Carolina (61-26-8) looks to rebound from their 5-2 loss in Madison Square Garden against the Rangers on Saturday. New York (59-28-8) has won three of their last four games to force this Game Seven.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HURRICANES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Carolina should play better tonight as they have won 8 of their last 10 games after a loss by three or more goals. They have also won 6 straight games after allowing five or more goals in their last game. The Hurricanes actually won the expected goals battle in Game Six by a 3.81 to 2.38 margin but were stymied by goalie Igor Shesterkin who made 37 saves. But now Carolina returns home where they are 7-0 this postseason. The Hurricanes have outscored their guests in the playoffs by a 25 to 8 margin — and they have outscored the Rangers at home at PNC Arena by a 7-2 margin. It is not just the energy the team gets from playing in front of their home crowd in Raleigh — head coach Rod Brind’amour has a big advantage in getting to choose the final lines to battle against the Rangers. Jordan Staal is a great defensive forward — and his line has contained the Rangers’ Mika Zibanejad line to zero points in the three previous games in Carolina. The Hurricanes have won 44 of their last 58 games at home when favored — and they have won 14 of their last 18 home games with the Total set at 5.5. Additionally, Carolina has won 28 of their last 36 playing games when favored — and they have won 4 of their last 5 playoff games when trailing in the series. They should get better goaltending from Antti Raanta tonight after he was pulled early in the second period on Saturday. Raanta has won all six of his starts at home in the postseason while posting a 0.97 Goals-Against-Average and a .965 save percentage. The Rangers have lost 6 of their last 7 games on the road. They are not getting the same level of scoring production away from Madison Square Garden. The Artemi Panarin line has not registered a point in the three games in Carolina. New York has lost 6 straight games as an underdog — and they have lost 38 of their last 52 games in the playoffs as an underdog. The Rangers have also lost 6 of their last 7 games played against the Hurricanes in Raleigh.
FINAL TAKE: Carolina has won 4 of their last 5 games when avenging a loss where their opponent scored at least five goals. 25* NHL Monday ESPN Game of the Month is on the money-line on the Carolina Hurricanes (22) with the money-line versus the New York Rangers (21). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-29-22 |
Celtics -2.5 v. Heat |
Top |
100-96 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 26 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (509) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (510) in Game Seven of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Boston (62-37) looks to rebound from their 111-103 upset loss at home to the Heat as an 8-point underdog on Friday. Miami (64-35) snapped a two-game losing streak in this series by forcing the decisive Game Seven.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS MINUS THE POINTS: It is telling that Boston has been identified as the favorite tonight despite the historical success of home teams in Game Sevens. The Celtics have the better numbers in most categories in this series: Offensive Efficiency, assist percentage, rebounding percentage, effective field goal percentage, fast break points, made 3-pointers, and free throw attempts. The only areas where the Heat have the edge over the Celtics are in points off turnovers, second-chance points, and points in the paint. Boston went into the locker room trailing by a 48-46 score — and then somehow Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown combined to take only seven shots from the field in the second half in the 8-point loss. I expect that to be corrected by this duo playing in their sixth Eastern Conference Finals series in their young careers. The Celtics have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after an upset loss. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after a straight-up loss — including covering the point spread after all five of their losses in the postseason. They have an average margin of victory in the playoffs after a loss by +12.1 Points-Per-Game — and they beat Miami by 20 and 25 points after their two previous losses to them in this series. Boston has also covered the point spread in 23 of their last 33 games after not scoring more than 105 points in their last game. Interestingly, while the Celtics have just a 5-4 record at home in the playoffs, they have a 6-2 straight-up record on the road including two victories in Miami in this series. Boston is 20-6-1 ATS in their last 27 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 road games when favored. Miami got a surprising performance from Jimmy Butler on Friday as he scored 47 points while converting 16 of 29 shots from the field and nailing four 3-pointers (not really his game). This was surprising not because I have any doubts about Butler’s talents but because he seemed to be so negatively impacted by the knee inflammation that kept him out of the second half in Game Three. Butler scored only 19 points on 7 of 32 shooting in Games Four and Five combined. I just remain skeptical that Butler can put two superhuman performances in a row on that bum knee — especially when he played 45:57 minutes on Friday. Kyle Lowry has also been slowed with his hamstring but stepped up to score 18 points on Friday after scoring only 3 points on 1 of 12 shooting in Games Four and Five. Max Strus, Gabe Vincent, and P.J. Tucker have also been slowed by injuries in this series. And then there is Tyler Herro who has not played since injuring his groin in Game Three. The Heat lose -2.8 points per 100 possessions with Herro on the court — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games playing without him. Even if he tries to take the court tonight, his effectiveness remains very much in doubt considering his injury usually puts NBA players on the shelf for two to four weeks. Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games at home after playing a game that finished Over the Total. The Heat have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 playoff games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Boston has covered the point spread in 17 of their last 26 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against the Heat in Miami. I don’t the Heat — I am just skeptical that they can come close to replicating the performance in Game Six given their injury situation. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Year with the Boston Celtics (509) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (510). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-28-22 |
Hurricanes v. Rangers UNDER 5.5 |
Top |
2-5 |
Loss |
-135 |
3 h 49 m |
Show
|
At 8:07 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Carolina Hurricanes (13) and the New York Rangers (14) in Game Six of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Carolina (61-25-8) took a 3-2 lead in this series with their 3-1 victory at home on Thursday. New York (58-28-8) returns home to Madison Square Garden hoping to stave off elimination.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: All five games in this series have finished Under the Total with only one of the games even seeing five combined goals. Both teams are averaging just 1.8 Goals-Per-Game in this series. The Hurricanes have not scored more than three goals in seven straight contests. The Under is 3-1-1 in Carolina’s last 5 games after a win — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a victory at home against a Metropolitan Division rival. The Under is also 3-1-1 in their last 5 games after not allowing more than two goals in their last game. Head coach Rod Brind’amour is getting outstanding goaltending from Antti Raanta who has a 1.99 Goals-Against-Average and a .931 save percentage in the playoffs. Raanta has +4.6 goals saved above expectation in the postseason. But now the Hurricanes go back on the road where they have not scored more than two goals in five playoff games — and they only scored two goals in their two previous games at Madison Square Garden against the Rangers. Carolina has now played 9 of their last 10 road games Under the Total in the second round of the playoffs. New York has played 22 of their last 28 games Under the Total after playing a game where no more than four combined goals were scored. The Under is also 39-18-1 in their last 58 games after not scoring more than two goals in their last game. Goalie Igor Shesterkin has a 2.05 Goals-Against-Average at home in six playoff games with a .949 save percentage. In 30 games (29 starts) at home in the regular season, Shesterkin posted similar numbers with a 1.85 GAA and a .940 save percentage.
FINAL TAKE: The Rangers only had 15 shot attempts in Game Five. They have only posted more than 28 shots once in this series. With these teams now very familiar with each other, expect another lower-scoring game tonight. 25* NHL Metropolitan Division Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Carolina Hurricanes (13) and the New York Rangers (14). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-28-22 |
Real Madrid v. Liverpool -0.5 |
Top |
1-0 |
Loss |
-100 |
0 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Liverpool (224202) minus the goal-line versus Real Madrid (224201) in the Finals of the UEFA Champions League. THE SITUATION: Liverpool reached the finals of the European championship with their 3-2 victory at Villarreal which gave them a 5-2 aggregate win in the semifinals. Real Madrid rallied from losing the first leg at Manchester City by a 4-3 score to level the aggregate score in regulation time in the second leg before scoring in extra time to take the 6-5 aggregate victory. This match is being played on a neutral field at the State de France in Saint-Denis, France, just north of Paris.
REASONS TO TAKE LIVERPOOL MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Real Madrid has had a difficult road to reach the finals with a grueling knock stage that involved matches against Paris Saint-Germain, Chelsea, and Man City. But Los Blancos consistently lost the expected goals battle in those contests — and they have a -1.9 net expected goals differential in those six knockout stage contests. Defense is an issue for manager Carlo Ancelotti’s team as they allowed 1.8 expected goals per match in their six knockout stage matches. They have resisted a clean sheet in any of the six legs in the knockout stage. Furthermore, much of the magic with this Real Madrid side came at home. Against Man City in the second leg of the semifinals, the Cityzens seemingly had the match in hand with a 1-0 lead before Rodrygo scored in the 90th and then 91st minute to force extra time where the sublime Karim Benzema scored the game-winner on a penalty kick in front of an ecstatic crowd. Los Blancos posted a +0.75 expected goals differential when playing at home — but they had a -0.16 net expected goals differential in the Champions League when playing on the road. Liverpool settled for second place in the English Premier League by one point — but they remain very motivated to bring home this trophy. They have scored at least two goals in 12 of their 15 Champions League matches. Additionally, they have only lost once in their last 12 Champions League matches (an irrelevant second-leg loss to Inter Milan where they still won the aggregate score comfortably) — and they won 10 of those matches. They have scored at least two goals in 11 of their last 12 Champions League matches — and they have scored at least three goals in six of those contests. The Reds’ defense has also been solid as they have only conceded more than 1.0 expected goals once in their six matches in the knockout stage.
FINAL TAKE: This one is personal for Mo Salah who had to leave the Finals of the 2018 Champions League against this same Real Madrid side after receiving a cheap shot from Sergio Ramos that separated his shoulder. Salah has commented that losing the 2018 final was the biggest professional disappointment of his career. 25* UEFA Champions League Match of the Year with Liverpool (224202) minus the goal-line versus Real Madrid (224201). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-27-22 |
Heat v. Celtics UNDER 202 |
Top |
111-103 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (505) and the Boston Celtics (506) in Game Six of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Miami (63-35) has lost two straight and three of the last four games in this series after a 93-80 loss at home as a 3-point underdog on Wednesday. Boston (62-36) took a 3-2 lead in the series with the victory.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: After scoring only 82 points and shooting a season-low 33.3% from the field in their 20-point loss on the road in Game Four, Wednesday’s Game Five was the time that the Heat needed to step up. Instead, they made only 7 of their 45 shots (16%) from behind the arc and set a new standard in futility with their shooting for the season by making only 31.9% of their shots in scoring just 83 points in their seven-point loss. I don’t Miami is a fraud — my conclusion is that injuries have simply robbed the team of its offensive identity. Everything starts with Jimmy Butler — exemplified in Game One when he scored 41 points while getting to the free-throw line 18 times. The Heat scored 118 points against the top statistical defense in the NBA. And head coach Erik Spoelstra has his team shoot plenty of shots from behind the arc as they demonstrated by their dominant start to Game Three where they seized a 26-point lead in the second quarter. Then Butler re-injured the knee that has been nagging him for much of the season. Miami holds on to win Game Three — and Butler returns to the court to play in the last two games. But he is a shell of himself. In Game Four, he scores only 6 points on 3 of 14 shooting — and he is no drive in his game as he fails to get to the free-throw line even once. He was a bit better on Wednesday — but he still only got to three free throw line four times in scoring 13 points on 4 of 18 shooting. Since the injury, he has made only 7 of 32 shots for a 21.9% field goal percentage. Kyle Lowry was brought in during the offseason to be the second or third scoring option in the starting lineup — but he is far from 100% with the Hamstring that kept him earlier in the playoffs. He did not score in Game Five after scoring just 3 points in Game Four. Lowry has made only one shot in the last two games — and he has taken just 12 shots in those two contests. Tyler Herro won the Sixth Man of the Year Award by scoring 20.7 Points-Per-Game coming off the bench — but the Heat have been without their second-leading scorer since he injured his groin in Game Three. Even if he returns tonight, his effectiveness is in doubt since his injury usually puts players on the shelf for two to four weeks. Bam Adebayo has been fine — he scored 18 points on 8 of 15 shooting on Wednesday. But he is not a number one scoring option — and this clever Celtics team now knows to focus their energies on him. Miami has Victor Oladipo who can provide offense — but he scored only 3 points on 1 of 7 shooting coming off the bench in Game Five. Spoelstra cannot play Duncan Robinson because he is a liability on defense. That puts Max Strus in the starting line up who missed all nine of his shots from the field on Wednesday. Miami can’t flip a switch to make Butler or Lowry or Herro healthy again — and perhaps the flaw of this team is that they really need at least two of those guys performing well to complement Adebayo. Since Game Two of this series, the Heat are scoring 1.01 Points-Per-Possession — and they are scoring 0.84 Points-Per-Possession in the halfcourt. Granted, they should make more than the 13 of 39 clip-on uncontested shots from the field they endured in Game Five. But this is now a team that is likely to struggle to score even 90 points when playing on the road against the elite Boston defense. Miami has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They have also played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher on their home court. Boston has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing their last opponent to shoot 35% or better from the field. The Celtics have also played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after playing a game where no more than 190 combined points were scored. Back at home, Boston has played 12 of their last 16 home games Under the Total when favored by 6.5 to 12 points.
FINAL TAKE: While Miami’s ability to score points is in doubt, their commitment to making things difficult for the Celtics on the other end of the court is not. They have held Boston to just 35% shooting from 3-point land — and the Celtics have not scored more than 103 points in each of the last three games of the series. Spoelstra will no longer be interested in pushing the pace in this series — this needs to be a slog for his team to have a chance. The Heat have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total as an underdog. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (505) and the Boston Celtics (506). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-27-22 |
Avalanche v. Blues OVER 6.5 |
Top |
3-2 |
Loss |
-113 |
1 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 8:07 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Colorado Avalanche (71) and the St. Louis Blues (72) in Game Six of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Colorado (63-21-7) had won the previous two games in this series before dropping Game Five by a 5-4 score in overtime on Wednesday. St. Louis (55-27-11) now trails in this series by a 3-2 margin.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Blues rallied twice in Game Four — once by a 3-0 margin before tying the game in the third period and then once again after trailing by a 4-3 score with less than a minute left in the game. Head coach Craig Berube has had his team adopt the Vegas Golden Knights’ approach of heavy forechecking with the hopes of wearing down the Avalanche — and the strategy may finally be working. The Over is 18-7-1 in St. Louis’ last 26 games after a win — and they have played 17 of their last 26 games Over the Total after a win on the road. Additionally, the Blues have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a win by one goal — and they have played 6 straight games Over the Total after a victory in overtime. St. Louis is second in the playoffs with a Power Play success rate of 32.4%. They return home where they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total — and the Over is 24-8-2 in their last 34 home games as an underdog. Now that Jordan Binnington is out for the rest of the postseason, the Blues are stuck with Ville Husson between the pipes. He has a -5.7 goals save below expectation in the playoffs. But if Game Five demonstrated anything, it is that Colorado is not getting quality goaltending from Darcy Kuemper. He allowed five goals on 30 shots. He has a subpar .904 save percentage in the postseason with a -2.5 goals saved above expectation mark. Goaltending is in large part a function of the play of the defense — and the Avalanche suffered a huge blow in the season-ending injury to Samuel Girard who has anchored one of the top-two defensive pairs for years, despite his being 23-years old. Colorado has played 16 of their last 25 games Over the Total after allowing at least four goals in their last game — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after playing a game where both teams scored at least four goals. The Aves have also played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a loss to a Central Division rival — and they have played 21 of their last 32 games Over the Total after winning two of their last three games. Colorado has scored 15 goals in the last three games with at least four goals in each game — and they have then played 20 of their last 27 games Over the Total after scoring at least four goals in three straight games. The Avalanche have also played 4 straight road games Over the Total when the favorite.
FINAL TAKE: Colorado has played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total in the Western Conference Semifinals going back to their series last year with Vegas. They have played 5 straight Overs in the playoffs with the opportunity to close out the series. St. Louis has played 9 of their last 12 playoff games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 8 of their last 11 playoff games Over the Total when trailing in the series. These two teams have played 9 of their last 11 meetings Over the Total including 5 straight Overs when playing in St. Louis. 25* NHL Central Division Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Colorado Avalanche (71) and the St. Louis Blues (72). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-26-22 |
Oilers v. Flames -145 |
Top |
5-4 |
Loss |
-145 |
3 h 41 m |
Show
|
At 9:37 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the money-line on the Calgary Flames (68) versus the Edmonton Oilers (67) in Game Five of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Calgary (55-28-10) looks to snap a three-game losing streak in this series after dropping Game Four by a 5-3 score on Tuesday. Edmonton (56-31-6) has won five of their last six games while taking a 3-1 lead in the series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE FLAMES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Calgary needs to stave off elimination with a victory tonight. They have won 7 of their last 10 games after allowing at least five goals in their last game. They have also won 4 of their last 6 games after losing three in a row to a Pacific Division rival. The Oilers have won all six games in the postseason when they scored first — but the Flames can take some confidence in the fact they enjoyed 3-0 and 2-0 leads on home ice in the first two games of this series. Calgary is winning the five-on-five possession battle against Edmonton. They have outshot the Oilers — and they are playing on special teams. And they are winning 56.1% of the faceoffs in the series. They are losing because of the disappointing play of goaltender Jacob Markstrom. He has an .850 save percentage in this series — and he has a 5.28 Goals-Against-Average in the last three games. But this was a Vezina Trophy finalist because his strong play in the regular season. The Flames have won 25 of their last 35 games on home ice — and they have won 7 of their last 9 games at home when favored. Edmonton may be due for an emotional letdown after holding serve at home for Games Three and Four. The Oilers have lost 8 of their last 12 games after winning two straight games by more than one goal in their last game. They have also lost 12 of their last 14 road games after winning two in a row by multiple goals. Furthermore, Edmonton has lost 14 of their last 22 games after winning three in a row against divisional rivals. Even if Markstrom continues to struggle, the Oilers’ Mike Smith does not really offer them an advantage between the pipes. Smith played out of his mind in the opening round against Los Angeles — but he has a -1.0 goals save above expectation in this series with several terrible gaffes. Edmonton has lost 15 of their last 22 games as an underdog — and they have lost 7 of their last 10 road games as a dog.
FINAL TAKE: Edmonton took Game Two of this series — but they have still lost 4 of their last 5 games played against the Flames in Calgary. The Flames have won 35 of their last 51 games when favored. 25* NHL Pacific Division Game of the Year with the money-line on the Calgary Flames (68) versus the Edmonton Oilers (67). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-24-22 |
Warriors v. Mavs UNDER 216 |
Top |
109-119 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (567) and the Dallas Mavericks (568) in Game Four of the Western Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Golden State (64-32) has won six of their last seven games after their 109-100 upset victory on the road against the Mavericks on Sunday. Dallas (60-38) has lost four of their last six games after falling behind 0-3 in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Warriors’ zone defense is stifling the Mavericks in this series. Dallas is making only 33.3% of their shots from behind the arc — but they continue to live-or-die by the 3 as they are attempting 52% of their shots from the field from distance. The Mavericks’ lack of size is hurting them in this series as well — they are only pulling down 18.2% of their missed shots. Golden State won the rebounding battle by a 47-33 margin on Sunday — and they have outrebounded Dallas by at least 13 boards in each of the games in this series. The Warriors have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after outrebounding their last two opponents by at least 10 boards. And while Golden State has covered the point spread in four straight contests, they have then played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in four straight games. They stay on the road where they have played 21 of their last 31 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. They have also played 4 straight Unders as an underdog. Dallas has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after an upset loss — and they have played 17 of their last 24 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Mavericks have also played 13 of their last 17 home games Under the Total after failing to score more than 105 points in their last game. They have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after losing four or five of their last six games. They have played 4 straight Unders after not covering the point spread in three straight games. Furthermore, Dallas has played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after getting outrebounded by at least five boards in three straight games. The Mavericks stay at home where the Under is 37-13-1 in their last 51 games —and they have played 20 of their last 27 home games when favored. They have also played 25 of their last 32 home games Under the Total when the Total is set in the 210-219.5 point range.
FINAL TAKE: Dallas has played 13 of their last 17 home games Under the Total when avenging a loss where their opponent scored at least 100 points — and they have played 23 of their last 35 games Under the Total when playing with double-revenge. 25* NBA Western Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (567) and the Dallas Mavericks (568). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-22-22 |
Warriors v. Mavs -2 |
Top |
109-100 |
Loss |
-110 |
13 h 49 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Dallas Mavericks (564) plus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (563) in Game Three of the Western Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Dallas (60-37) returns home down 0-2 in this series after their 126-117 loss on the road against the Warriors on Friday. Golden State (63-32) has won five of their last six games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MAVERICKS MINUS THE POINTS: Dallas was in reach to pull the upset in Game Two — they entered the fourth quarter trailing by two points and remained within four points with under four minutes to go before getting outscored by a 19-14 margin the rest of the way. The Mavericks allowed the Warriors to nail 56.1% of their shots (14 of their 28 shots from behind the arc) which was tied for the worst defensive effort in their last seven games. But Dallas has covered the point spread in 6 straight games after allowing at least 125 points in their last game. The Mavericks have also covered the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games after a loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games after a point spread loss. Don’t underestimate this Dallas team — this is a cohesive team that usually makes more 3s while attempting 46.3% of their shots from behind the arc in the first two rounds of the playoffs. And they are led by a superstar in Luka Doncic who can put his team on his shoulders. After a 17-18 start, the Mavericks ended the regular season with a 35-12 run. They outscored Utah and Phoenix by +5.8 Points-Per-Game which was the second-highest mark after the first two rounds of the playoffs. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 35 games — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Furthermore, Dallas has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games at home when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 15 home games when favored by up to six points. Golden State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games when playing with one day of rest. The Warriors go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Golden State has also failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 34 road games when listed in the +/- 3-point range.
FINAL TAKE: The Warriors have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in Dallas against the Mavericks. And in Dallas’ last 28 games when given the opportunity for same-season revenge, they have covered the point spread in 20 of these contests. 25* NBA Western Conference Game of the Year with the Dallas Mavericks (564) plus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (563). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-22-22 |
Hurricanes v. Rangers -105 |
Top |
1-3 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 3:37 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the New York Rangers (46) versus the Carolina Hurricanes (45) in Game Three of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: New York (56-27-8) has lost the first two games in this series after a 2-0 loss on the road against the Hurricanes on Friday. Carolina (60-23-8) has won three games in a row while taking a 2-0 lead in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RANGERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: New York has only scored once so far in this series — and they are scoreless in their last 116:05 minutes. But the Rangers have won 10 of their last 12 games after losing two games in a row. They have also won 7 of their last 9 games after not scoring more than two goals in two straight games. They return home where they are 3-1 at Madison Square Garden in this postseason. They have scored four goals in their 12 Power Play opportunities in those four home games. New York has won 14 of their last 22 home games with the Total set at 5.5. They have also won 6 of their last 8 home games when the underdog. Goaltender Igor Shesterkin has been outstanding when playing in front of the home fans this season. In 30 games (29 starts) at MSG in the regular season, Shesterkin had a 1.85 Goals-Against-Average with a .940 save percentage and five shutouts. After some shaky moments last round against Pittsburgh that may have been triggered by his Herculean performance in the opening game overtime marathon, Shesterkin has regained his regular-season form with 44 saves against 47 shots for a .936 save percentage in this series. He has +1.07 goals saved above expectation. Carolina has lost 5 of their last 8 games after playing a low-scoring game where no more than four combined goals were scored. The Hurricanes have now won 12 of their last 15 games — but they have then lost 4 of their last 5 games after winning at least 12 of their last 15 games. They have also lost 6 of their last 7 games on the road after not allowing more than one goal in two straight games. Carolina continues to get surprisingly good goaltending from Antti Raanta who has stopped 48 of the 49 shots he has seen in this series. But Raanta was at his best when playing at home in the regular season where he sported a 2.06 GAA and a .924 save percentage in 13 starts. In his 15 starts on the road, Raanta had a 2.87 GAA and a .906 save percentage. Furthermore, in his two starts on the road in Boston last round, he gave up four goals in both losses and had an .867 save percentage. The Hurricanes were winless in their three games on the road against the Bruins last round — and they were outscored by a 14 to 8 margin. The Carolina offense has not been much better than the Rangers in the postseason either. While New York ranks seventh of the remaining eight teams in expected goals scored at even strength, the Hurricanes rank sixth despite playing six of their nine playoff games on home ice.
FINAL TAKE: The Rangers have won 10 of their last 13 games when avenging a loss on the road — and they have won 8 of their last 9 games when playing with revenge from an upset loss. 25* NHL Metropolitan Division Game of the Year with the money-line on the New York Rangers (46) versus the Carolina Hurricanes (45). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-22-22 |
Leeds United v. Brentford OVER 3 |
Top |
2-1 |
Push |
0 |
0 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 11:00 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Leeds United (200005) and Brentford (200006). THE SITUATION: Leeds United (W8-D11-L18) needs a result to potentially pass Burnley to avoid relegation after settling for a 1-1 draw at home against Brighton and Hove Albion last Sunday. Brentford (W13-D7-L17) has won seven of their last ten matches after their 3-2 win at Everton last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Leeds has to play aggressively in this match — they trail Burnley by 13 goals in the differential department so they have to assume they need to register a victory to secure the three points since a draw by the Clarets at home against Newcastle would mean a draw in this match would not be enough for the Peacocks. The Whites did generate 2.37 expected goals (xG) against the Seagulls last week — but they surrendered 2.05 xG in the draw. Leeds is one of the worst defensive teams in the English Premier League. They have conceded the most Big Chances that have scoring likelihood of at least 35%. They have conceded 10 goals in their last four matches. On the road, the Peacocks have allowed at least two goals in six of their last nine contests. They have allowed 2.05 expected goals allowed (xGA) in their 18 previous road matches. Brentford’s attack has been elevated since Christian Eriksen became a regular on the pitch. In those ten matches, the Bees have scored 2.0 Goals-Per-Game — and they rank fourth in Big Chances created during that stretch. Their xG of 1.99 in those ten matches suggests their improved scoring prowess is likely to be sustainable. In their last two matches, Brentford has scored six times with an xG of 5.20.
FINAL TAKE: In the reverse fixture at Leeds on December 5th, both teams scored twice in the 2-2 draw. Expect another higher-scoring contest with Leeds United desperate for the victory which should create scoring opportunities for Brentford in the counter-attack. The Bees will want to play hard in front of their home fans in their final home match in their first season back promoted in the English top flight. They also have a chance to finish in the top-ten with a result. 25* EPL Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Leeds United (200005) and Brentford (200006). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-20-22 |
Oilers v. Flames OVER 6.5 |
Top |
5-3 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 10:37 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Edmonton Oilers (39) and the Calgary Flames (40) in Game Two of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Edmonton (53-31-6) looks to rebound from a 9-6 loss on the road against the Flames on Wednesday. Calgary (55-25-10) has won four of their last five games after taking a 1-0 lead in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: 40-year-old goaltender Mike Smith got exposed early by allowing three goals on the first ten shots he faced in Game One. While head coach Jay Woodcroft quickly announced that Smith will get back between the pipes tonight, he has allowed three or more goals in four of his eight starts in the postseason (with seven of those games against a defensive-minded Los Angeles team in Round One). Smith had a middling 2.81 Goals-Against-Average with a .915 save percentage in 29 regular season starts. But the Oilers demonstrated they can be explosive with their offensive attack in this series after scoring four goals on 11 shots during a torrid stretch in the second period when they rallied from a 6-2 deficit. Edmonton has played 12 of their last 18 games Over the Total after a loss on the road. They have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after scoring at least five goals in their last game — and the Over is 7-2-1 in their last 10 games against an opponent that allowed at least five goals in their last game. The Oilers scored six times despite failing to score from any of their four Power Play chances. After ranking third in the regular season with a Power Play success rate of 26.0%, they converted on 7 of their 19 Power Plays in the first round against the Kings for a crisp 36.8% success rate. Edmonton led all playoff teams after the first round with 22 goals when playing at even strength five-on-five. They ranked third in the first round with 3.46 expected goals at five-on-five. Calgary has played 9 of their last 10 home games Over the Total after winning four of their last five games. The Over is also 13-6-2 in their last 21 games after scoring at least five goals in their last game — and the Over is 5-2-2 in their last 9 games against an opponent that allowed at least five goals in their last game. The Flames generated 47 shots in Game One making it the sixth straight game where they peppered the net with at least 32 shots — and they have played 31 of their last 46 games Over the Total after playing at least five straight games where they had at least 30 shot attempts. Calgary is fourth in the postseason with just 2.23 expected goals allowed at five-on-five — but they just played seven games against an offensively-challenged Dallas team. Goalie Jacob Markstrom has a .918 save percentage in these playoffs — but his -0.4 goals saved avoid expectation suggests he is actually underachieving baseline expectations.
FINAL TAKE: Edmonton has played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a loss on the road. These two teams averaged 8.25 combined goals scored in their four regular-season meetings — including a 9-5 victory for the Flames in their final regular-season meetings on March 26th. Wednesday’s score may not have been as much of an outlier as it first appeared — and these two teams have played 4 of their last 5 games against each other. The Over is also 14-6-1 in the last 21 meetings between these teams when playing in Calgary. I think both teams should get to at least 3-3 before the end of regulation tonight. 25* NHL Pacific Division Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Edmonton Oilers (39) and the Calgary Flames (40). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-17-22 |
Liverpool v. Southampton UNDER 3.5 |
Top |
2-1 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 18 m |
Show
|
At 2:45 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Liverpool (200161) and Southampton (200162). THE SITUATION: Liverpool (W26-D8-L2) returns to their English Premier League schedule after beating Aston Villa by a 2-1 score last Tuesday. Southampton (W9-D13-L14) has lost seven of their last ten matches after their 3-0 loss at Brentford back on May 7th.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Liverpool comes off a 1-0 victory against Chelsea in the finals of the FA Cup on Saturday that was resolved via a shootout after 120 minutes of scoreless play. Mo Salah and Virgil Van Dijk left that match early with injuries that keeps them off the eligible roster for this match. Manager Jurgen Klopp has dug deep to his bench for this match — and the result is a starting XI that lacks many of their top attackers. Sadio Mane is also not playing — and their winter transfer, Luis Diaz, is on the bench. The top two attackers are Diogo Jota and Roberto Firmino in the starting XI, but both are both limited. Jota is a poacher who has had success when joining Salah and Mane up top — but he is not a lead dog as he demonstrated in his time with Wolverhampton. Firmino appears past his prime for the last two seasons and has scored only nine goals this year. The Reds will also not have Trent Alexander-Arnold and Andre Robertson who play important roles in the attack on the wing. And because Klopp is relying on backups for his back line, expect a more cautious approach. Liverpool needs the win, not a blowout. Southampton only generated 1.32 expected goals in their loss to Brentford ten days ago. While the Saints have little to play for as they sit in 15th place in the EPL table but safe from relegation, don’t be surprised if they relish the opportunity to play spoiler and ruin Liverpool’s title aspirations. After Manchester City’s 2-2 draw at West Ham over the weekend, a Reds victory pulls them within one point with one match to go of the Cityzens. Southampton upset Liverpool at home last year by a 1-0 score — and they limited the Reds to just 1.35 expected goals despite Salah and company being on the pitch. But the Saints have scored only one goal in their last two matches and only four goals in their last six matches. They are not likely to score more than once in this match even against the B-team that Liverpool is sending out.
FINAL TAKE: Liverpool has seen six of their last seven matches accrue three or less combined goals — and Southampton has seen four of their last five matches generate three combined goals or less. 25* EPL Tuesday USA Network Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Liverpool (200161) and Southampton (200162). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-16-22 |
Braves v. Brewers -149 |
Top |
0-1 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 55 m |
Show
|
At 7:40 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the money-line on the Milwaukee Brewers (908) versus the Atlanta Braves (907) listing both starting pitchers Freddy Peralta and Ian Anderson. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (22-13) has won two of their last three games after their 7-3 victory at Miami on Sunday. Atlanta (16-19) has lost two of their last three games after a 7-3 loss at home to San Diego yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BREWERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Milwaukee should continue their momentum tonight as they have won 5 of their last 7 games after a win by four or more runs. They have also won 5 of their last 6 opening games to a new series. They return home where they are 10-4 this season while scoring 6.0 Runs-Per-Game. The Brewers have won 10 of their last 14 games at home when priced as a -110 or higher money-line favorite — and they have won 10 of their last 13 home games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. They give the ball to Peralta who has a 2-1 record with a 4.40 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in six starts. The 25-year-old offers a good example regarding the need to parse past the frontline numbers. He is one of many starting pitchers who struggled out of the gate due to the abbreviated spring training. In his last four starts, Peralta has a 2.08 ERA with 28 strikeouts and only five walks in 21 2/3 innings of work. The deeper sabermetrics are encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.03 and 3.10 respectively. The right-hander comes off a strong season last year where he posted similar numbers. In 144 1/3 innings of work, Peralta posted a 10-5 record with a 2.81 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP — and he enjoyed a 2.88 ERA with a 0.90 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .158 in 16 games (15 starts) at home last year. Milwaukee has won 10 of their last 15 games at home with Peralta pitching as a money-line favorite priced in the -125 to -175 range. He should pitch well against this Braves team that is scoring only 3.4 Runs-Per-Game on the road. Atlanta has just a .216 Batting Average with a .273 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .653. Atlanta is just 6-8 on the road this season — and they have lost 16 of their last 23 road games when priced as a money-line underdog in the +125 to +175 price range. And while the Braves have played six straight Overs, they have then lost 7 of their last 10 games after playing at least four straight Overs. They counter with Ian Anderson who has a 3-1 record with a 4.20 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP in six starts. The deeper sabermetrics are not as bullish on Anderson’s start — his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.92 and 4.55 moving forward. In 24 starts last year, Anderson had a 3.58 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP — but his SIERA and xFIP projected an ERA of 4.38 and 3.96 which is pretty accurate measure of what he is doing now. Looking under the hood, there are some troubling signs for the right-hander. After striking out 29.2% of the batters he faced last year, that number dropped to 23.8% last year. Now this year, Anderson is only striking out 17.1% of the batters he has faced. And he continues to walk too many batters with 12.4% of the batters has faced getting a base-on-balls. Now he faces a Brewers team that scores 5.9 Runs-Per-Game against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have won 12 of their last 14 home games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Milwaukee opened as a money-line favorite in the -140 range — but with the news that Ronald Acuna remains out with an injury, the price has been slowly rising. I have a personal guideline to not endorse money-line favorites in MLB (and the NHL) if priced over -150 because I don’t like the expectation of needing to win these plays more than 60% of the time to break a profit. I find it to be helpful as to how to navigate a daily card. But I need to have deadlines as well. If it is late afternoon and I am still seeing -150 or lower prices, then I am comfortable in endorsing even if the price at some of the shops has moved higher than -150. I have no idea what the price will be when the game starts. If you end up having to invest more than -150, I still recommend the play. It’s a guideline, not a mandate sent down by the Gods from Mount Olympus. These two teams last played on May 8th when Atlanta won by a 9-2 score. The Brewers have won 5 of their last 7 games when avenging a loss by six or more runs. 25* Major League Baseball Game of the Month with the money-line on the money-line on the Milwaukee Brewers (908) versus the Atlanta Braves (907) listing both starting pitchers Freddy Peralta and Ian Anderson. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-15-22 |
Stars v. Flames UNDER 5.5 |
Top |
2-3 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 9:37 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Stars (1) and the Calgary Flames (2) in Game Seven of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Dallas (49-33-6) snapped a two-game losing streak in this series with a 4-2 victory on Friday. Calgary (53-25-10) hosts Game Seven on their home ice at the Scottiabank Saddledome.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Stars head coach Rick Bowness reunited Jason Roberson on the top line with Joe Pavelski and Rope Hintz on Friday — and Hintz scored a goal that Pavelski and Roberson assisted on while adding a second assist in the victory. The final goal was scored on an empty netter. But now back on the road, Calgary head coach Darryl Sutter can match up whatever two defensemen he wants against the top line that features Pavelski with the home team’s right to make the final line change. Dallas has scored only four times in the three previous games in Calgary in this series. The Under is 3-0-1 in the Stars’ last 4 games on the road. Dallas is getting outstanding goaltending from Jake Oettinger in this series. Oettinger has a .954 save percentage in the first six games — and he has a +7.3 Goals Save Above Expectation. The Under is 5-2-1 in the Stars’ last 8 games as an underdog — and the Under is also 5-2-1 in their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. Calgary has played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a loss on the road — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a loss on the road by more than one goal. The Under is also 4-1-1 in their last 6 games after not scoring more than two goals in their last game. The Flames have scored only four goals in their three games at home with three of them scored in their 3-1 victory in Game Five. While Oettinger’s efforts in this series are getting the most attention, Calgary’s Jacob Markstrom has been outstanding as well with a .945 save percentage and +4.1 goals saved above expectation. The Flames have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when favored — and the Under is 11-4-1 in their last 16 games in the playoffs when favored. Calgary has also played 7 of their last 10 playoff elimination games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: Of the 24 combined goals scored in the six games in this series, only 13 of them have been scored at five-on-five even strength. The Under is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings between these teams when playing in Calgary. 25* NHL ESPN2 Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Stars (1) and the Calgary Flames (2). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-15-22 |
Mavs v. Suns UNDER 207.5 |
Top |
123-90 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 57 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Mavericks (527) and the Phoenix Suns (528) in Game Seven of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Dallas (59-35) forced a decisive Game Seven in this series with their 113-86 upset victory as a 2-point underdog on Thursday. Phoenix (71-23) has lost three of the last four games in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Dallas has steadily improved their defensive play in this series. After allowing the Suns to score 125 Points-Per-Game with a 1.32 Points-Per-Possession scoring rate, they have contained Phoenix to just 90 PPG with 1.05 PPG scoring rate in the last four games of this series. Granted, three of those four games were played in Dallas — but Phoenix scored 110 points in Game Five back at home with a 49.4% field goal percentage. The Suns average 115.5 PPG on their home court — so Dallas’ effort in Game Five was still pretty good. Phoenix began the playoffs by making at least 50% of their shots in their first eight games — including nailing at least 60% of their shots in two contests — while averaging 114.8 PPG during that span. The Mavericks have found a way to slow down Chris Paul who is only scoring 9.3 PPG in his last four games. Jalen Brunson has proven himself a gritty defender against Paul who is struggling against his physicality. Dallas has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 19 of their last 28 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory. The Mavs have also played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 95 points in their last game. Dallas made 45.5% of their shots on Thursday which was the best shooting effort in their last four games. The Mavericks have been outrebounded by at least six rebounds in all six games in this series — and they have then played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total after getting outrebounded by at least five boards in three straight games. Dallas goes back on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 200 to 209.5 point range. Phoenix has played 12 of their last 16 game Under the Total after an upset loss — and they have played 7 straight Unders after an upset loss as a road favorite. The Suns have also played 12 straight Unders after a loss on the road, in general. Additionally, Phoenix has played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total when playing with two days of rest — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after outrebounding their opponents by at least five boards in four straight games.
FINAL TAKE: Phoenix has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when avenging an upset loss as a road favorite. 25* NBA 2nd Round Western Conference Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Mavericks (527) and the Phoenix Suns (528). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-14-22 |
Bruins v. Hurricanes UNDER 6 |
Top |
2-3 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 60 m |
Show
|
At 4:37 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Bruins (77) and the Carolina Hurricanes (78) in Game Seven of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Boston (57-30-5) won their third game in the last four games in this series with their 5-2 victory at home on Thursday. Carolina (57-23-8) returns home to Raleigh to host this Game Seven.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bruins took a 2-0 lead entering the third period on Thursday before taking a 4-1 lead just over halfway through the period. The Hurricanes pulled their goalie early in an attempt to get back into the game — and Boston scored an empty netter before Carolina added the final goal with an empty netter. All six games in this series have seen at least six combined goals — and the Total has risen to 6 in the last two games after the first four games had a Total of 5.5. This situation offers us good value for Game Seven. The Bruins have played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total after playing at least four straight Overs. Boston has also played 23 of their last 36 games Under the Total after allowing at least two goals in the third period of their last game. The Bruins have taken 37 minor penalties in this series which has helped contribute to five power-play goals by the Hurricanes. But in this Game Seven when the referees tend to swallow their whistles, Boston is not likely to not have their Power Play Kill Unit as active. Jeremy Swagman will once again be between the pipes for the Bruins after stopping 23 of the 25 shots he faced on Thursday. In his four starts in this series after taking over for Linus Ullmark after the first two games, he has a 2.51 Goals-Against-Average and a .913 save percentage. The rookie did his best goaltending on the road during the regular season where he posted a 2.08 GAA and a .926 save percentage in 23 games (22 starts) as compared to his 2.81 GAA and .898 save percentage in 19 games (18 starts at home). Carolina has been held to two goals in three of their last four games since Swayman became the goaltender for the Bruins in this series. They have played 16 of their last 22 games at home Under the Total after losing two of their last three games. The Hurricanes have also played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total at home when playing their third game in five days. Carolina returns home where they have only given up four goals in the previous four games in this series. Antti Raanta has been outstanding in those three home games as he stopped 74 of the 76 shots he has faced for a .974 save percentage. In his 13 regular-season starts at home, Raanta had a 2.06 GAA and a .924 save percentage. Raanta has been better than I thought he would be in this series playing for the injured Frederik Andersen. Raanta has a 2.46 GAA and a .926 save percentage in his five starts while getting injured in Game Two and not playing in Game Three.
FINAL TAKE: Carolina has played 17 of their last 27 games at home Under the Total with the Total set at 6 or higher. Boston has played 8 of their last 13 road games Under the Total with the Total set at 6 or higher. 25* NHL 1st Round Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Bruins (77) and the Carolina Hurricanes (78). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-13-22 |
Celtics +1.5 v. Bucks |
Top |
108-95 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (515) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (516) in Game Six of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Boston (57-34) has lost two of their last three games in this series after a 110-107 upset loss at home to the Bucks on Wednesday. Milwaukee (58-34) took a 3-2 lead in this best-of-seven series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS PLUS THE POINT(S): Boston lost a heartbreaker on Wednesday — they had a six-point lead with just over two minutes to go on their home court. Giannis Antetokounmpo missed a crucial second free throw late — but Bobby Portis pulled down the offensive rebound and scored the go-ahead winning basket. The Celtics still had a chance to score — but then Jrue Holiday made two crucial blocks to ice the game for the defending NBA champions. Excruciating for this Boston team — but this is a veteran group despite the young ages of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown who already have tons of playoff and Game Seven experiences. They should be resilient and respond tonight. Boston has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Celtics have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after an upset loss as a home favorite. Boston did shoot 51.2% from the field on Wednesday — but they only made 10 of their 31 shots (32%) from behind the arc so they are not coming off an outlier effort from distance. Back on the road, they are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 road games against teams with a winning record at home. They are also 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 road games as an underdog — and they are 15-5-2 ATS in their last 22 games as a dog overall. Milwaukee has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after an upset loss on the road as an underdog. Furthermore, the Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games at home after a straight-up win. Milwaukee outrebounded the Celtics by a 49-36 margin which was the third-straight game where they won the rebounding battle in this series by at least six boards — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 29 of their last 42 games after outrebounding their last three opponents by at least five boards. Boston has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after getting outrebounded by their last three opponents by at least five boards. The Bucks got another superhuman performance from Antetokounmpo in Game Five as he scored 40 points on 16 of 27 shooting. But he missed Khris Middleton who plays such a crucial role in the offensive attack for this team. Since the beginning of the 2020-21 season, Milwaukee is just 14-14 in their last 28 games without Middleton — and they are just 12-15-1 ATS in those contests. The Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their45 games on their home court this season. They are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 home games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games when favored by no more than six points. They are also 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 home games against teams with a winning record on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Boston may get Robert Williams III back for this game which will help their defensive efforts. The Celtics have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 road games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Boston will be confident tonight — they are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games against the Bucks and they are 5-0-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings between these two teams in Milwaukee. 25* NBA 2nd Round Playoff Underdog of the Year is on the Boston Celtics (515) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (516). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-12-22 |
Hurricanes v. Bruins -114 |
Top |
2-5 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 49 m |
Show
|
At 7:07 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the money-line on the Boston Bruins (56) versus the Carolina Hurricanes (55) in Game Six of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals Series. THE SITUATION: Boston (52-30) has lost four of their last six games after their 5-1 loss on the road to the Hurricanes on Tuesday. Carolina (57-22-8) took a 3-2 series lead with the victory.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BRUINS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Boston looks to stave off elimination and force a decisive seventh game in this series. Attrition on their blue line has not helped their cause. They got back Charlie McAvoy on Tuesday who was out due to a positive COVID test — and now they expect to see his partner of their top defensive pair return with Hampus Lindolm probable after missing the last three games after taking a big hit in Game Two. Getting their top two defenders back and playing together is huge. And getting back home to TD Garden where head coach Bruce Cassidy gets to make the final line change also helps enormously. The fans won’t hurt either. Boston has won 36 of their last 51 home games when favored. Cassidy will put David Pastrnak back on the second line with Taylor Hall -- but he may still give extra shifts to him re-pairing with Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand for the “perfection” line. The Bruins have won 23 of their last 33 games after a loss — and they have won 13 of their last 18 games after a loss on the road. Boston has also won 10 of their last 13 games after a loss by three or more goals — and they have won 5 of their last 6 games after a loss by four or more goals. Furthermore, the Bruins have won 8 of their last 10 games after losing four or five of their last six games — and they have won 10 of their last 13 games after allowing at least five goals. Rookie Jeremy Swayman is between the pipes tonight after taking over after Game Two. While he struggled on Tuesday, he posted a solid .925 save percentage in Games Three and Four at home which Boston won both. Carolina has outscored the Bruins by a 19-13 margin — but the Hurricanes are overachieving their expected goals numbers and actually have a negative 46.78% expected goals-for mark in this series when playing at five-on-five. Carolina had the number one Power Play Kill Unit in the regular season but surrendered four Power Play goals in the two previous games in Boston in this series. Antti Raanta has been playing over his head in this series with a .942 save percentage. In 15 games (13 starts) on the road this year, he has a mediocre 2.87 Goals-Against-Average and a .942 save percentage. The Hurricanes have lost 5 of their last 6 road games as an underdog. They have also lost 16 of their last 21 playoff games as a dog.
FINAL TAKE: Carolina has lost 11 of their last 14 games played in Boston against the Bruins. Expect this to be a seven-game series. 25* NHL Thursday Night Special Feature with the money-line on the Boston Bruins (56) versus the Carolina Hurricanes (55). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-11-22 |
Penguins v. Rangers -129 |
Top |
3-5 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 57 m |
Show
|
At 7:07 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the New York Rangers (48) versus the Pittsburgh Penguins (47) in Game Five of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: New York (53-26-7) returns home after losing both games on the road to the Penguins after a 7-2 loss on Monday. Pittsburgh (49-27-10) has taken a 3-1 lead in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RANGERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: New York lost Game Three of this series by a 7-4 score. Goalie Igor Shesterkin was pilled after the first period in Game Three after giving up four goals on 15 shots — and he only survived two periods on Monday after giving up six goals on 24 shots. But it has been the Rangers’ defense in front of him that has been the bigger problem. Shesterkin has +1.2 saves above expectation in this series. In the first two games of this series, he stopped 118 of the 124 shots he faced for a .952 save percentage. During the regular season, the likely Vezina Trophy winner posted a 1.85 Goals-Against-Average and a .940 save percentage in 30 games (29 starts at home). New York is a well-coached team under Gerard Gallant that should play better tonight back in from of their home crowd when facing elimination. The Rangers have won 8 of their last 11 games after a loss by three or more goals — and they have won 7 of their last 10 games after allowing at least five goals in their last game. Furthermore, New York has won 15 of their last 22 games after losing two of their last three games. Additionally, the Rangers have won 24 of their last 35 games after playing their last game Over the Total — and they have won 14 of their last 17 games after playing two straight Overs. Back at home, New York has won 28 of their last 41 games on home ice — and they have won 21 of their last 30 home games when favored. And in the last 12 games coached by Gerard after his team allowed at least five goals in two straight games, his teams have then won the game 9 times. Pittsburgh has lost 7 of their last 10 games after a victory — and they have lost 6 of their last 9 games after a win by five or more goals. They have also lost 7 of their last 10 games after scoring at least five goals in their last game. Additionally, the Penguins have lost 20 of their last 29 road games after a win by four or more goals against a Metropolitan Division rival — and they have lost 7 of their last 8 games on the road after playing a game where at least nine combined goals were scored. The Pens have lost 12 of their last 19 games on the road after scoring at least three goals in two straight games. On the road, Pittsburgh has lost 6 of their last 8 games — and they have lost 4 of their last 5 road games as an underdog. The Penguins are dealing with injuries on their blue line with both Brian Dumoulin and Richard Rakell out tonight. And Pittsburgh remains reliant on third-string goaltender Louis Domingue with both Tristan Jarry and Casey DeSmith out with injuries. Dominque has just a .906 save percentage in this series — and he has a -2.3 saves below expectation rate.
FINAL TAKE: The Rangers have won 9 of their last 11 games when playing with revenge from a loss on the road — and they have won 5 of their last 6 games when avenging a loss by two or more goals on the road. Pittsburgh has lost 5 of their last 7 games at Madison Square Garden against the Rangers. 25* NHL 1st Round Metropolitan Division Playoff Game of the Year with the money-line on the New York Rangers (48) versus the Pittsburgh Penguins (47). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-11-22 |
Bucks v. Celtics UNDER 214.5 |
Top |
110-107 |
Loss |
-110 |
6 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (507) and the Boston Celtics (508) in Game Four of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (57-34) has lost two of the last three games in this series with their 116-108 upset loss at home against the Celtics as a 2-point favorite on Monday. Boston (57-33) has won seven of their last nine games while evening this series at 2-2.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Milwaukee went into the fourth quarter in Game Four with a seven-point lead — but they surrendered a whopping 43 points in the final 12 minutes to get outscored by 15 points in the loss. That was the worst defensive effort for the Bucks in their last nine games. Milwaukee still leads all teams in the playoffs in Defensive Efficiency. The first item on head coach Mike Budenholzer’s agenda is to tighten things up on defense again. The Bucks have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They go back on the road where they have played 4 straight Unders — and they have played 10 of their last 15 road games Under the Total as an underdog of up to six points. Milwaukee misses Khris Middleton who remains out with a knee injury. Not only did he score 20.1 Points-Per-Game and 5.4 Assists-Per-Game in the regular season, but he is the team’s primary ball-handler which is critical for this team because he allows Giannis Antetokounmpo to exert less energy. Given the injury to Middleton, more is being asked of Jrue Holiday -- but he is more effective as a third scoring option rather than the primary complement to Antetokounmpo. Holiday is averaging 23 shot attempts per game in this series — but he is making only 33.6% of his shots and 30.9% of his shots from behind the arc. Brook Lopez becomes the de-facto third scoring option with Middleton out — but while he has scored 17 PPG in the playoffs when playing at home, he is only scoring 4.8 PPG on the road in the playoffs. Moving forward, Milwaukee has played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. The Under is also 9-2-1 in their last 12 games in the Eastern Conference Semifinals. Boston enjoyed their best shooting mark in their last five games with their 50% shooting clip on Monday. They got a huge effort from Al Horford who nailed 11 of his 14 shots from the field including 5 of 7 from behind the arc for 30 points. The Celtics’ 116 points was tied for the highest-scoring game in their last eight contests. But Boston has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total after an upset win. They return home where they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. After leading the NBA in Defensive Efficiency in the regular season, they are third in the playoffs in defense while giving up the second-fewest points in the paint. The Celtics have played 30 of their last 44 games Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. And in their last 13 games in the Eastern Conference Semifinals, Boston has played 11 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: Milwaukee has played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total when avenging a loss on their home court. These two teams have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing in Boston. 25* NBA 2nd Round Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (507) and the Boston Celtics (508). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-10-22 |
Kings v. Oilers UNDER 6.5 |
Top |
5-4 |
Loss |
-114 |
1 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 10:07 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Kings (39) and the Edmonton Oilers (40) in Game Five of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (46-29-11) comes off a 4-0 victory at home against the Oilers on Sunday. Edmonton (51-30-5) returns home with this series tied at 2-2.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Kings head coach Todd McClellan found success playing the Phillip Danault forward line against the Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl line on Sunday. Danault is one of the best defensive forwards in the game. Los Angeles also got a vintage performance from goaltender Jonathan Quick who stopped all 31 of the shots he faced. The veteran was the team’s starting goaltender for their Stanley Cup championships in 2012 and 2014. After the Oilers scored six and eight goals in Games Two and Three, I think the tenor of this series has changed to be more defensive — and I suspect this may be the last game in this series where the Total is set at 6.5. The Under is 4-1-1 in the Kings’ last 6 games after a win — and they have played 6 straight Unders after shutting out their last opponent. Los Angeles has also played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a win by three or more goals against a Pacific Division opponent — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total on the road after a win by more four or more goals. The Kings were a good defensive team in the regular season where they ranked 11th in the NHL in expected goals allowed per 60 minutes. But scoring will be a problem for this team as they have only scored one power-play goal in their 15 chances in this series. Moving forward, the Under is 7-2-1 in their last 10 games in the playoffs as an underdog — and the Under is 7-3-1 in their last 11 games against Pacific Division foes. Edmonton has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss by three or more goals — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total at home after a loss by four or more goals. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after failing to score more than two goals — and they have played 17 of their last 24 games at home after not scoring more than one goal in their last contest. They are getting great play from goaltender Mike Smith who has a 2.27 Goals-Against-Average and a .942 save percentage in this series. Smith was red-hot last month with a .951 save percentage in April.
FINAL TAKE: The Under is 18-8-4 in the last 30 games between these teams when playing in Edmonton. The Oilers have also played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total when avenging a shutout loss to their opponent. 25* NHL 1st Round Pacific Division Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Kings (39) and the Edmonton Oilers (40). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-10-22 |
76ers v. Heat -2.5 |
Top |
85-120 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 33 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Miami Heat (502) minus the points versus the Philadelphia 76ers (501) in Game Five of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Miami (59-32) lost both games on the road against the 76ers after a 116-108 loss as a 2-point favorite on Sunday. Philadelphia (57-35) has evened this series at 2-2.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HEAT MINUS THE POINTS: Miami allowed the Sixers to make 54.4% of their shots in Game Four which was the worst defensive effort in their last 30 games. To compound matters, the Heat continue to struggle with their 3-point shooting. After making only 7 of 30 shots from behind the arc in Game Three, Miami converted on just 7 of their 35 shots from downtown. It’s tough to give too much credit to the Philly defense for this ineffectiveness either — the Heat missed 19 of their 24 shots from 3-point range that were uncontested or lightly contested shots. I do expect the Regression Gods to make an appearance for Miami tonight after making only 21.5% of their shots from behind the arc in the two games in Philadelphia. Back at home, the Heat convert 37.6% of their shots from 3-point range. Granted, Duncan Robinson is not playing significant minutes in this series since he will be a defensive liability against James Harden -- and that removes one of the best 3-point shooters in the Miami rotation. But the other Heat players should see more of their 3-pointers drop moving forward and back at home. Miami has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after a loss on the road. Furthermore, the Heat have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games after playing their last two games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after losing their last two games on the road. Back at home, Miami has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games — and they are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. The Heat have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. Additionally, Miami has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 42 of their last 62 playoff games when favored. Philadelphia’s 54.4% shooting percentage was their best offensive effort in this series. They nailed 16 of their 33 (48%) of their shots from behind the arc. Joel Embiid made one of those 3-pointers — it was a bank shot from the top of the arc. Pretty fortunate after not even attempting a 3-pointer in Game Three. He is still dealing with a broken thumb on his shooting hand that has altered his 3-point shot. He had missed nine straight 3-pointers going into Sunday with his last made 3-pointer was back on April 20th. With Embiid not a threat from behind the arc, the Sixers offense becomes limited since defenders are comfortable to play off him when he drifts to the perimeter. Harden played his best game in the postseason with 31 points on 8 of 18 shooting while nailing 6 of his 10 shots from downtown. I am not a believer — heck, I have never been a big believer in Harden in the playoffs when the refs call fewer fouls and the pressure is higher — he looks like he is moving in slow motion. His good game on Sunday might have enabled some bad habits tonight. As it is, the Sixers have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after a point spread win. Now they go back on the road where they made just 14 of their 64 (21.9%) of their 3-pointers. Having a healthy Embiid back helps Philly’s balance on offense — but they are still facing a Heat team that holds their guests to just 33.7% shooting from behind the arc when playing at home. The 76ers have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games on the road — and they are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. Philly has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 playoff games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: The 76ers are just 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 trips to Miami to play the Heat. The Heat have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games when avenging a loss where they allowed at least 110 points. Miami has also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games when playing with double-revenge. 25* NBA 2nd Round Playoff Game of the Year is on the Miami Heat (502) minus the points versus the Philadelphia 76ers (501). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-09-22 |
Flames v. Stars UNDER 5.5 |
Top |
4-1 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 9:37 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Calgary Flames (37) and the Dallas Stars (38) in Game Four of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Calgary (51-24-10) has lost four of their last five games after their 4-2 loss on the road against the Stars on Saturday. Dallas (48-31-6) has won five of their last seven games while taking a 2-1 lead in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: We have seen Johnny Gaudreau’s offensive productivity dip in the postseason before. Despite prolific regular-season performances in the 2018-19 and 2019-20 seasons, Calgary flamed out in the first (full) round of the playoffs in both campaigns. The Flames have scored only three times in the first three games of this series. Part of the problem for Calgary is the lack of scoring depth after their top line of Gaudreau, Matthew Tkachuk, and Elias Lindholm. When playing at home in Dallas with the right to make the final line change, head coach Rick Bowness can make sure that his top defensive pair of Miro Heiskanen and Ryan Suter take the ice when the Gaudreau line is playing. Heiskanen has not seen a goal scored against the Stars in his 78 minutes of ice time so far in this series. And while the Gaudreau has scored twice, the other forward lines have scored just once in the first three games of this series. The Flames have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a loss on the road. The under is also 3-1-1 in their last 5 games after not scoring more than two goals in their last game — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not scoring more than two goals in two straight games. They are getting great goaltending from Jacob Markstrom who has kept them competitive in all three games in this series despite their lack of scoring. Markstrom has stopped 65 of the 69 shots he has faced in this series for a 1.36 Goals-Against-Average and a .940 save percentage. In his 25 starts on the road this season, Markstrom has a 2.31 GAA and a .929 save percentage. The Under is 6-2-1 in the Flames’ last 9 games on the road — and the Under is 6-2-1 in their last 9 games as a road favorite. Dallas preceded their victory on Saturday with a 2-0 shutout win in Game Two in Calgary. They have played 18 of their last 26 games Under the Total after going unbeaten in their last two games — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after winning their last two games by more than one goal. The Stars have not allowed more than two goals in four straight games and six of their last seven. Rookie goaltender Jake Oettinger loves playing against Pacific Division teams against which he has a 2.24 Goals-Against-Average and a .925 save percentage in 16 games (15 starts). So far in this series, Oettinger has a 1.01 GAA and a .969 save percentage — and he has +3.7 saves above expectation. The Stars have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: The Under is 9-3-1 in Calgary’s last 13 games in the playoffs when favored — and they have played 11 of their last 17 playoff games Under the Total when trailing in the series. 25* NHL 1st Round Western Conference Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Calgary Flames (37) and the Dallas Stars (38). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-08-22 |
Heat +2.5 v. 76ers |
Top |
108-116 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Miami Heat (579) plus the points versus the Philadelphia 76ers (580) in Game Four of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Miami (59-31) had their four-game winning streak snapped on Friday in a 99-79 upset loss on the road against Philadelphia as a 1.5-point underdog. Philadelphia (56-35) made this a 2-1 series with the victory.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HEAT PLUS THE POINTS: Miami only made 35.1% of their shots in Game Three which was the worst shooting effort in their last 72 games. The Heat appeared out-of-synch with the surprise decision by the Sixers that Joel Embiid was ready to take the court again after passing the concussion protocol (and despite his orbital injury that had him wearing a protective mask). But it was more than just the return of Embiid — Miami could not hit the side of a barn on Friday. They missed 8 of their 10 uncontested shots. They only converted on 29.8% of their jump shots despite the deeper metrics indicating their expected field goal percentage was 48%. The Heat simply need to execute better tonight — better passing and better shooting. They have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after not scoring more than 90 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 23 games after playing a game where no more than 205 combined points were scored. Additionally, Miami has covered the point spread in 38 of their last 58 games after a loss on the road by 20 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after an upset loss by double-digits despite being a road favorite. They stay on the road where they are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Furthermore, the Heat have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 22 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 road games as a dog. They have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games against teams with a winning record. Philadelphia plays their best defensive game of the season by holding the Heat to just 35.1% shooting. The Sixers nailed 16 of their 33 shots from behind the arc for a 48.5% shooting clip. But the troubling aspect for Philadelphia is that they only scored 99 points despite enjoying so much success from distance. The 76ers’ posted only a 111 Offensive Rating in Game Three — and their efficiency actually dropped to scoring 107 points per 100 possessions when Embiid was on the court. Embiid scored a respectable 18 points but he did not attempt a 3-point attempt. He is still dealing with a broken thumb on his shooting hand that has altered his 3-point shot. He has missed nine straight 3-pointers — and his last made 3-pointer was back on April 20th. If Embiid is not a threat from behind the arc, the Sixers' offense becomes limited since defenders are comfortable playing off him when he drifts to the perimeter. As it is, Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after an upset victory — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after pulling off an upset win as a home underdog. They have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games at home after losing two of their last three games. The 76ers have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games with the Total set at 200 to 209.5.
FINAL TAKE: Miami has covered the point spread in 18 of their last 27 games when playing with same-season revenge — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games when avenging a loss by 20 or more points on the road. 25* NBA Sunday Night Special Feature with the Miami Heat (579) plus the points versus the Philadelphia 76ers (580). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-08-22 |
Maple Leafs v. Lightning -115 |
Top |
3-7 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 7:07 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the Tampa Bay Lightning (26) versus the Toronto Maple Leafs (25) in Game Four of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (52-25-8) looks to rebound from their 5-2 loss at home to the Maple Leafs on Friday. Toronto (57-27-7) took a 2-1 lead in this series with the victory.
REASONS TO TAKE THE LIGHTNING WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Tampa Bay may not pull off the three-peat this season — but the defending champions remain very talented and will be a very tough out. They have been very reliable when bouncing back from a loss in the playoffs. Since 2020, they have won all 15 of their games after a loss in the postseason. Goaltender Andre Vasilevskiy has started in all 15 of those victories — and he has posted a 1.31 Goals-Against-Average with a .948 save percentage and five shutouts in those contests. Tampa Bay has also won 39 of their last 52 games after a loss by at least three goals — and they have won 20 of their last 26 games after a loss at home by three or more goals. Furthermore, the Lightning have won 29 of their last 43 games when trailing in a playoff series. Toronto has lost 21 of their last 30 games when leading in a playoff series. While the Leafs are scoring 4.33 Goals-Per-Game in this series, they are not finding success on the Power Play. After leading the NHL with a Power Play that enjoyed a 27.3% success rate in the regular season, they are only converting on 13.3% of their Power Plays against the Lightning, ranking 11th in the playoffs. Toronto has lost 7 of their last 10 road games as an underdog — and they have lost 9 of their last 13 games in the playoffs as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Tampa Bay has won 28 of their last 36 games when avenging a loss where they allowed at least four goals — and they have won 10 straight home games when playing with revenge from a loss at home. 25* NHL 1st Round Atlantic Division Playoff Game of the Year with the money-line on the Tampa Bay Lightning (26) versus the Toronto Maple Leafs (25). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-07-22 |
Grizzlies v. Warriors -6.5 |
Top |
112-142 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 27 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Golden State Warriors (574) minus the points versus the Memphis Grizzlies (573) in Game Three of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Golden State (58-31) looks to rebound from their 106-101 upset loss on the road against the Grizzlies as a 2-point favorite on Tuesday. Memphis (61-29) evened the series at 1-1 with the victory.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WARRIORS MINUS THE POINTS: Golden State was flat after seizing home-court advantage in the opening game of this series despite not playing with the suspended Draymond Green in the second half in Game One. The Warriors made only 42.1% of their shots from the field which was the lowest shooting mark in their last eight games. They missed 31 of their 38 shots from behind the arc for a low 18% field goal percentage from 3-point range. Back at home, Golden State should play much better. Golden State has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 29 home games after a straight-up loss. They are also 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games when playing with at least three days of rest. The Warriors have a 34-10 record on their home court — and their numbers probably betray how good they will perform at home moving forward since the team was rarely at full strength with the Big Three of Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, and Klay Thompson playing together again. And then there is the new emerging “Death Lineup” (PTSD?) which includes All-Star Andrew Wiggins and rising star Jordan Poole. That group overwhelmed Denver in the first two games of the Western Conference Quarterfinals when the Warriors outscored the Nuggets by an average of 18 PPG while scoring 124.5 Points-Per-Game on 53.6% shooting from the field in both games. Golden State was not as prolific on their home court in Game Five of that series in a 102-98 victory — but let’s give them a pass in that game since they were in control of the series (and did still win the game). The Warriors are 38-15-1 ATS in their last 54 home games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher on the road — and they are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 28 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Memphis risks being a bit rusty in this game after the mid-series hiatus since Tuesday to accommodate the television schedule moving forward. They are just 7-16-1 ATS in their last 24 games. And while this is just their fourth game in the last 11 days, the Grizzlies have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 30 road games when playing not more than their fourth game in ten days. Memphis played their best game on defense by holding the Warriors to a 42.1% shooting percentage in their last five games. But they only made 39.6% of their own shots — and it could have been worse if it was not for Ja Morant who put his team on his back by scoring 47 points while adding 8 rebounds and 8 assists. Morant nailed 15 of his 31 shots from the field — but his teammates only made 21 of 60 shots for a troubling 35% shooting percentage. The Grizzlies will be without Dillon Brooks tonight after he got suspended for his hard foul on Gary Payton, Jr. and elbow injury that will keep him out indefinitely. Memphis is 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 road games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 20 playoff games as an underdog. Furthermore, the Grizzlies have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games when playing in Golden State against the Warriors.
FINAL TAKE: Golden State has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 31 opportunities for revenge. They have also covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games when avenging a loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when playing with revenge from an upset loss on the road. 25* NBA ABC-TV Game of the Month with the Golden State Warriors (574) minus the points versus the Memphis Grizzlies (573). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-06-22 |
Suns v. Mavs |
Top |
94-103 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Dallas Mavericks (552) plus the point(s) (or minus) versus the Phoenix Suns (551) in Game Three of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Dallas (56-34) returns home down 0-2 in this series after their 129-109 loss on the road to the Suns as a 6-point underdog on Wednesday. Phoenix (70-20) has won four straight games and five of their last six.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MAVERICKS PLUS THE POINTS (OR AS A PICK ‘EM): Dallas looked outmatched in their two games in Phoenix — but Luka Doncic had his way in both games. Doncic has scored 80 points in this series after posting 45 points on Wednesday — and he added 12 rebounds and 8 assists in the losing effort. The Mavericks have made 41% of their shots from 3-point land in each of the first two games of this series — but head coach Jason Kidd’s team made 37.1% of their shots from behind the arc in their six-game series with Utah last round. Dallas should play their best game of the series tonight. They have covered the point spread in 36 of their last 52 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after a straight-up loss on the road. Furthermore, the Mavericks have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after a double-digit loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a loss by 20 or more points on the road. Dallas allowed the Suns to nail 64.5% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort for them all season — but they have then covered the point spread in 5 straight games after allowing at least 125 points in their last game. Phoenix shot 50.5% from the field in Game One of this series as well — but the Mavericks have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing their last two opponents to make at least 50% of their shots in their last two games. Dallas returns home for the first time since April 25th — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight home games after being on the road for at least seven days. The Mavs have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Dallas has also covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games against teams with a winning record. Phoenix posted the seventh best field goal percentage in the history of the NBA playoffs with their 64.5% shooting clip on Wednesday — and it was their best shooting effort of the season. I do expect an appearance from the Regression Gods. The Suns made 37.3% of their shots from behind the arc when playing at home during the regular season — but that mark drops to a 35.4% clip when playing on the road. Phoenix has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 23 games after a double-digit win at home. And while they have covered the point spread in four straight games and six of their last eight contests, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after covering the point spread in six or seven of their last eight contests. The Suns have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when playing with one day of rest.
FINAL TAKE: Dallas has covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games when avenging a same-season loss. 25* NBA 2nd Round Western Conference Playoff Game of the Year with the Dallas Mavericks (552) plus the point(s) (or minus) versus the Phoenix Suns (551). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-06-22 |
Hurricanes v. Bruins -130 |
Top |
2-4 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 58 m |
Show
|
At 7:07 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Boston Bruins (2) versus the Carolina Hurricanes (1) in Game Three of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Boston (50-29-5) returns home trailing 0-2 in this series after losing by a 5-2 score on the road against the Hurricanes on Wednesday. Carolina (56-20-8) has won eight games in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BRUINS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Boston has outshot the Hurricanes in both games of this series while winning the five-on-five battle — but they have not been able to put enough shots into net. Head coach Bruce Cassidy has responded to this situation by deciding to reunite the “perfection” line by moving David Pastrnak back with Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand after moving Pastrnak on the second line with Taylor Hall. The Bruins should play well tonight as they have won 12 of their last 17 games after a loss on the road — and they have won 9 of their last 12 games after a loss by three or more goals. Boston has also won 6 of their last 8 games after losing three of their last four games. They have also won 9 of their last 12 games after allowing at least five goals in their last contest. Cassidy turns to rookie Jeremy Swayman after Linus Ullmark allowed eight goals on 57 shots in the first two games of this series. The rookie had a 23-14-3 record as a starter in the regular season with a 2.41 Goals-Against-Average and a .914 save percentage. He stopped 21 of the 23 shots he faced in his lone game against the Hurricanes this season. The Bruins have won 35 of their last 51 home games when favored. Carolina committed nine penalties on Wednesday in what was a wild game — and they have lost 6 of their last 7 games after taking at least eight penalties in their last game. The Hurricanes have lost 28 of their last 42 games after winning their two previous games at home by more than one goal. And while they the Hurricanes have scored at least four goals in five straight games, they have then lost 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least four goals in five straight games. Goalie Antti Raanta left Game Two midway through the first period with an injury which means rookie Pyotr Kochetkov will make his fifth appearance of the season. While he stoped 30 of the 32 shots he faced on Wednesday, this is a difficult assignment in making his first career postseason start in hostile territory. As it is, Carolina has lost 5 of their last 7 road games as an underdog. They have also lost 8 of their last 10 playoff games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Boston has won 9 of their last 12 opportunities to host the Hurricanes on home ice. 25* NHL 1st Round Eastern Conference Playoff Game of the Year with the money-line on the Boston Bruins (2) versus the Carolina Hurricanes (1). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-05-22 |
Predators v. Avalanche OVER 6.5 |
Top |
1-2 |
Loss |
-120 |
4 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 9:37 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Nashville Predators (75) and the Colorado Avalanche (76) in Game Two of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Nashville (45-31-7) looks to rebound from their 7-2 loss in the opening game of this series. Colorado (57-20-6) snapped a two-game losing streak while taking a 1-0 lead in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Entering the postseason, I wanted to attack these 6.5 totals with Under plays ahead of the market before the reality of playoff hockey generates lower scoring games — but here I am endorsing a 25* play with an Over despite the number being at 6.5. Well, these are both high-scoring teams — and the Predators have a serious problem with their goaltending situation given the injury to Juuse Saros. David Rittich did not last the first period on Tuesday as he allowed in five goals on 13 shots. Rookie Connor Ingram played better by stopping 30 of the 32 shots he faced which were enough for head coach John Hynes to give him the nod as the starter tonight. It’s one thing to “only” give up two more goals entering a game where his team was already trailing by five goals — it is quite another to be facing the pressure of starting in a hostile environment tonight in a brand new game. In his three regular-season starts, Ingram had a 3.71 Goals-Against-Average and a .879 save percentage. He is facing perhaps the most potent scoring attack in the NHL which generates 4.3 Goals-Per-Game when playing at home at Ball Arena. The Avalanche rank sixth in the league with a Power Play unit that has a 24.3% success rate. The Predators give up 4.78 penalties per game which are the most in the league. Nashville only wins this game by scoring their share of goals. They are led by Matt Duchene and Filip Forsberg who both found the back of the net 40 times. They also boast a top-five Power Play unit in the NHL. The Predators have played 17 of their last 21 games Over the Total after a loss on the road — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a loss by three or more goals. They have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total on the road after playing a game where at least eight combined goals were scored. Furthermore, they have played 4 straight Overs after allowing at least five goals in their last game — and they have played 16 of their last 22 games Over the Total after failing to score more than two goals in their last game. On the road, the Over is 36-16-1 in their last 53 games — and they have played 15 of their last 20 road games Over the Total with the total set at 6 or higher. And in their last 8 road games, Nashville has played 7 of these games Over the Total. Additionally, the Predators have played 5 straight Overs against teams with a winning record — and they have played 22 of their last 27 games Over the Total against Central Division rivals. Colorado has played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total at home after a victory against divisional opponents — and they have played 20 of their last 29 games Over the Total after a win by three or more goals against a Central Division foe. The Avalanche have now played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. Colorado is vulnerable on defense — they have allowed 3.6 Goals-Per-Game in their last five contests. Darcy Kuemper stopped 23 of the 25 shots he faced on Tuesday — but in his ten starts last month, he registered a lukewarm 3.28 GAA and a .910 save percentage.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 straight Overs — and they have played 4 straight Overs when playing in Colorado. Nashville has also played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a loss by two or more goals. The Predators can still feel very good about themselves with an upset win tonight — but they can only do that by pulling out a high-scoring game. 25* NHL 1st Round Central Division Playoff Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Nashville Predators (75) and the Colorado Avalanche (76). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-04-22 |
Blues v. Wild -131 |
Top |
2-6 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 57 m |
Show
|
At 9:37 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Minnesota Wild (66) versus the St. Louis Blues (65) in Game Two of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Minnesota (53-23-7) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 4-0 loss at home to the Blues on Monday. St. Louis (50-23-10) has won four of their last six games while taking a 1-0 lead in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WILD WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Minnesota actually won the expected goals battle by a 3.44 to 3.129 margin — but their inability to score on their six power-play opportunities let them down. The Blues scored on their first two power plays to seize an early lead — and they got a surprising shutout performance from goaltender Ville Husso making his first career postseason start. Minnesota outshot St. Louis by a 37-31 margin. The Wild should play better tonight. They have won 9 of their last 10 games after a loss at home — and they have won 15 of their last 18 games after a loss at home to a Central Division rival. Furthermore, Minnesota has won 8 straight games after a loss at home by more than one goal — and they have won 13 of their last 15 games after a loss at home by three or more goals. Additionally, the Wild have won 14 of their last 20 games after not scoring more than two goals — and they have won 9 of their last 11 games after getting shut out in their last game. They stay at home where they have won 51 of their last 68 games — and they have won 43 of their last 54 home games when favored. They have also won 24 of their last 33 home games with the Total set at 6 or higher. Marc-Andre Fleury will be between the pipes again tonight after stopping 27 shots on Monday but surrendering four goals in that game with three of them coming off rebounds. Fleury is a veteran with plenty of successful playoff experience — and he posted a 9-2-0 record in his 11 starts after being shipped to Minnesota from Chicago at the trade deadline. St. Louis has lost 3 of their last 4 games after a road victory where they shut out their opponent. They have also lost 6 of their last 9 games after playing a game where no more than four combined goals were scored. The Blues have scored at least three goals in six straight games — but they have then lost 14 of their last 20 games on the road after scoring at least three goals in their last four contests. Let’s fade Husso who has been a journeyman goalie before his career season this year as he got more playing time for the fading Jordan Binnington. While Husso had a 2.34 Goals-Against-Average with a .926 save percentage in 21 starts at home, those numbers rose to a 2.82 GAA on the road in 19 games (17 starts) with a .911 save percentage. St. Louis has still lost 6 of their last 7 playoff games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Minnesota has won 5 of their last 6 games when avenging a loss at home by four or more goals. 25* NHL 1st Round Central Division Playoff Game of the Year with the money-line on the Minnesota Wild (66) versus the St. Louis Blues (65). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-04-22 |
Manchester City v. Real Madrid OVER 3 |
Top |
1-2 |
Push |
0 |
2 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Manchester City (224213) and Real Madrid (224214) in the second leg of the UEFA Champions League Semifinals. THE SITUATION: Manchester City won the first leg of this semifinals showdown with a 4-3 victory at home at Etihad Stadium last Tuesday. Real Madrid hosts this rematch at their Santiago Bernabeu Stadium.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Man City is in potent offensive form with all of their attackers healthy and contributing. The Cityzens come off a 4-0 victory at Leeds United in the English Premier League on Saturday. Man City has scored 16 goals during their current four-game winning streak across all competitions. Manager Pep Guardiola deploys many starting XI lineups that lack a traditional number striker — and they still score plenty of goals with effective midfielders like Kevin DeBruyne, Phil Foden, and Raheem Sterling. But what has helped the Cityzens in this recent surge is the sudden great form of one of the true number nines on the roster in Gabriel Jesus. The Brazilian has scored seven goals in his last five starts to offer this side the finisher up top that may be the final piece of the puzzle Guardiola needs to pull off the double of winning a Champions League and the EPL title. Jesus loves playing against Real Madrid — he has three goals with an assist in his three career matches against them. But while the attack is clicking on all cylinders, the Man City defense is not playing at its most optimal level. After Leeds United generated 1.06 expected goals (xG), the Cityzens have allowed four of their last seven opponents to produce at least 1.0 xG — and that does not include the 3-2 loss to Liverpool in the Semifinals of the FA Cup (where expected goals data is not tracked). Guardiola is dealing with an injured backline that is missing John Stones while Kyle Walker and Nathan Are are dealing with knocks. He will have to turn to Oleksandr Zinchenko at right-back who has been a liability on defense in the past. Joao Cancelo returns to the pitch after being suspended for the first match — and while he is a great defender, he also provides the Cityzens a threat in the attack. Real Madrid has won three of their last four matches after a 4-0 victory against Espanyol on Saturday. Los Blancos have scored 13 goals in their last four matches — but they have allowed six goals as well over that span. Manager Carlo Ancelotti is also dealing with injuries on his backline with David Alaba dealing with a knock. He may be available today but he has yet to return to training. The hopes of this Real Madrid side rest on the shoulders of attacker Karim Benzema who is on fire right now. Benzema scored twice in the first leg last week — and he leads all players in the Champions League with 14 goals in the competition. Los Blancos have scored at least one goal in every one of their home matches in the Champions League going back to December of 2018 — and they have to beat the Cityzens by one goal to force extra time to advance to the Semifinals.
FINAL TAKE: The pace was frenetic in the first meeting between these sides last week with Man City generating 3.08 xG and Real Madrid countering with 1.66 xG. Los Blancos have a -4.43 net expected goals differential in their last four matches in the Champions League — but be careful reading too much into that. With elite players like Benzema, Vinicius Junior, and Luka Modric, they have the talent that literally produces the positive outlier results from which expected goals data measuring league-wide averages derive. It’s kinda like expecting the Golden State Warriors to stop overperforming relative to the league (last night being an exception) with their 3-point shooting — the Regression Gods are not coming for the players that set the standard from which other player’s expected regression is measured. Another higher-scoring contest is likely. 25* UEFA Champions League Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Manchester City (224213) and Real Madrid (224214). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-03-22 |
Liverpool -0.5 v. Villarreal |
Top |
3-2 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Liverpool (224209) minus the goal-line versus Villarreal (224210) in the second leg of the UEFA Champions League Semifinals. THE SITUATION: Liverpool won the first leg between these two teams by a 2-0 score last Wednesday. Villarreal hosts today’s match having to win by at least two goals to force extra time to decide the contest.
REASONS TO TAKE LIVERPOOL MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Reds are rolling on a five-game winning streak — and they have won 22 of their last 27 matches across all competitions. They come off a 1-0 victory at Newcastle United on Saturday in a match where they limited the Magpies to only 0.16 expected goals. Liverpool’s defense is perhaps playing at its highest level ever under manager Jurgen Klopp. They have now registered four straight clean sheets since beating Man City in the FA Cup Semifinals — and they have conceded a combined 0.86 expected goals allowed (xGA) in those four contests. They absolutely stymied the Yellow Submarines in the first leg last week. Villarreal registered only one shot — and it was not on target — with a mere three touches in the Reds’ penalty area. Liverpool held them to just 0.05 xGA. Villarreal had little success penetrating the midfield line consisting of Thiago and Fabinho — only 13 of their 44 long passes were successful. The Reds, on the other hand, generated 1.75 expected goals (xG) while peppering the Yellow Submarines with 20 shots and 45 touches in their penalty area. Liverpool has been dominant when playing on the road as well. They have not lost on the road in any match since December — and they have won all five of their matches on the road in the Champions League. Villarreal remained flat over the weekend in a 2-1 loss at Alaves in La Liga. They generated only 1.10 xG while conceding 2.35 xGA. Injuries have slowed them down over this recent stretch — but manager Unai Emery does get Gerard Moreno back as an attacker. But the Yellow Submarines’ forward group is still decimated with injuries with their rising star at left-wing Arnaut Danjuma not in the starting XI after not playing over the weekend — and Alberto Moreno and Yeremi Pino are also still on the shelf. Let’s take a grain of salt to the weekend loss to Alaves since Emery rotated players to prepare for this rematch — the priority for this club is the Champions League. But it says something that Villarreal is only in seventh place in La Liga. They beat an overrated Juventus side learning to live life without Ronaldo in the Round of 16 — and then they were fortunate to catch an injured Bayern Munich team in the Quarterfinals. And they either had a lead or were tied with both those clubs going into the second leg which allowed Emery to maintain his low-block defensive stance where they could counter-attack with a healthier forward group. Now, this is Liverpool — one of the top two teams in the world. They will have to play aggressively — and the Reds should punish them in the counterattack. Villarreal is unbeaten in their last 12 matches at home — but they are just fourth at home in points in La Liga. The Yellow Submarines will have to play a style out of their comfort zone against a superior opponent — those are not promising circumstances.
FINAL TAKE: Liverpool did not win either second leg in the Knockout Stage in this competition — but context is important. The Reds held a 2-0 lead against Inter Milan in the Round of 16 — and when Inter dropped to 10 men after a yellow card, defensive tactics were more than enough to easily survive a 1-0 loss where they advanced with the 2-1 aggregate score. And then Klopp had the luxury of rotating players after winning their first leg with Benfica by a 5-0 score — so the 3-3 result in the second leg continued their overall domination in that match. With a showdown with Man City in the Finals looming, I suspect Klopp will demand a closing effort from his players — and his starting XI is the A-team (save for Jordan Henderson in the midfield who is getting rested). 25* UEFA Champions League Semifinals Match of the Year with the Liverpool (224209) minus the goal-line versus Villarreal (224210). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-30-22 |
Phillies v. Mets -115 |
Top |
4-1 |
Loss |
-115 |
7 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the New York Mets (910) versus the Philadelphia Phillies (909) listing both starting pitchers Taijuan Walker and Kyle Gibson. THE SITUATION: New York (15-6) has won four of their last five games after their 3-0 victory against the Phillies last night. Philadelphia (10-11) saw their four-game winning streak snapped with the loss.
REASONS TO TAKE THE METS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Five New York pitchers combined to no-hit Philadelphia last night. The Mets have won 7 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. This team looks rejuvenated under veteran manager Buck Showalter — and they are getting the production they expected last year when they signed Francisco Lindor to a huge contract as a free agent. And they are getting great pitching. Showalter turns to Walker tonight who is making just his second appearance this year after going in the injured list with a bout of bursitis in his right shoulder. The right-hander pitched a four-inning simulated game on Monday where he threw 64 pitches. With everything fine from that effort, he will have an 80 to 85 pitch limit tonight. He looked good in his first game of the year against these Phillies against which he struck out four batters in two scoreless innings on April 11th. Walker had a 7-11 record last season with a 4.47 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in 159 innings. Walker struggles on the road where he had 5.82 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP in 14 starts. But back at home at Citi Field, Walker enjoyed a 3.46 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .198 in 15 starts (16 games). The Mets have won 12 of their last 15 games when Walker is the starting pitcher priced as a money-line favorite in the -100 to -150 price range. And if he gets in trouble, Showalter can turn to his red-hot bullpen that has a 1.73 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP in 26 innings at home. The Phillies have lost 6 of their last 7 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. New York has won 5 of their last 6 games at home — and they have won 40 of their last 57 home games when favored. Philadelphia has lost 19 of their last 28 games after playing a game where no more than four combined runs were scored. They are scoring only 4.0 Runs-Per-Game on the road where they have a 2-6 record this season — and they have lost 12 of their last 15 games on the road. They counter with Gibson who has a 2-1 record with a 3.47 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP in four starts. His best work has been at home where he owns a 1.42 ERA and a 0.55 WHIP in two starts — but his two worst starts have been on the road where he has a 5.91 ERA with a 1.50 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .275. These disparate home/road splits corroborate his splits from last year where he had a 2.81 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and .206 opponent’s batting average in 14 games (13 starts) at home but a 4.47 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .257 in 17 starts on the road. Gibson did have a 3.71 ERA last season — but his SIERA and xFIP called for regression with those sabermetrics projecting ERAs of 4.40 and 4.14 respectively. The Phillies have lost 16 of their last 20 road games with Gibson pitching with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. And while Gibson also had a 4.12 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in 22 games (21 starts) at night — as opposed to his 2.77 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in nine starts in the afternoon — Philly has lost 13 of their last 15 road games at night with Gibson on the hill. The Mets have won 13 of their last 16 games against right-handed starting pitchers including five straight winners at home. They are scoring 4.7 Runs-Per-Game this season against right-handed starting pitchers. Philadelphia has lost 10 of their last 11 games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Bryce Harper has been playing at designated hitter for the Phillies — but he is not at full strength as he is bothered with an elbow. The Mets have won 10 of their 12 games this season when priced as a favorite up to my -150 price threshold. 25* MLB Game of the Month with the money-line on the New York Mets (910) versus the Philadelphia Phillies (909) listing both starting pitchers Taijuan Walker and Kyle Gibson. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-29-22 |
Grizzlies v. Wolves UNDER 229.5 |
Top |
114-106 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Memphis Grizzlies (571) and the Minnesota Timberwolves (572) in Game Six of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Memphis (59-28) has won three of their last four games with their 111-109 win at against the Timberwolves as a 6.5-point favorite on Tuesday. Minnesota (49-39) hopes to stave off elimination tonight trailing 3-2 in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: This series has been trending to lower-scoring games. After Game One saw 247 combined points scored, the Total moved up from a closing number in the 238 range for the first game to a closing Total in the 240 range. Game Two saw only 220 combined points scored before Game Three saw the series-low of 199 points. Game Four’s final score upticked back to 237 combined points (thanks for a furious scoring pace in the final minute). Game Five’s final score dropped to 220. Memphis is finding success in this series by winning the battle on the boards. After outrebounding the Timberwolves by a 53-42 margin on Tuesday, the Grizzlies have outrebounded them by at least five boards in the last four games. Memphis has then played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after outrebounding their last opponent by at least five rebounds in fouur straight games. The Grizzlies go back on the road where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road when favored. Minnesota has played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a loss by three points or less. After exploding 130 points in Game One, the Timberwolves are averaging only 104.8 PPG in the last four games in this series on 42.5% shooting from the field. They have scored more than 109 points just once in these last four games — and they have not cleared 96 points twice in the last four. They return home where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total as an underdog. And while the Grizzlies outrebound their opponents by +7.0 Rebounds-Per-Game, Minnesota has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the second half of the season against teams who outrebound their opponents by at least 5.0 Rebounds-Per-Game. The T-Wolves have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 7 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing at Minnesota. 25* NBA Round One Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Memphis Grizzlies (571) and the Minnesota Timberwolves (572). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-28-22 |
76ers v. Raptors UNDER 210 |
Top |
132-97 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia 76ers (567) and the Toronto Raptors (568) in Game Six of the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (54-33) has suffered two straight upset losses after their 103-88 loss at home against the Raptors as a 7.5-point favorite on Monday. Toronto (50-37) trails in this series by a 3-2 margin.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The 76ers are not as potent on offense since Joel Embiid injured his right thumb on his shooting hand. Philadelphia had a 61.5% effective field goal percentage before the injury — but they have a collective 48.1% effective field goal percentage as a team ever since after making only 38.3% of their shots on Monday. Embiid still scored 20 points in the loss in Game Five — but he cannot carry the team on offense and his outside shot is now limited. He missed all four of his shots from behind the arc in Game Five and his diminished threat as an outside shooter disrupts the team’s spacing on the court. The 76ers’ route to victory tonight is to play better defense after allowing the Raptors to make 51.2% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last six games. They go back on the road where the Under is 5-2-1 in their last 8 games — and the Under is also 4-1-1 in their last 6 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Philadelphia has also played 7 of their last 10 games on the road Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Additionally, the Sixers have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total with the Total in the 200 to 209.5 point range. Toronto enjoyed the best shooting effort in their last 13 contests after nailing 51.2% of their shots. But the Raptors have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory as a road underdog in their last game. They have also played 30 of their last 39 games Under the Total after winning their last two games against Atlantic Division rivals. And while they have only covered the point spread in two of their last seven games, they have then played 10 of their last 11 home games Under the Total after not covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. The Raptors will likely be without Fred VanVleet once again tonight. His absence helps Toronto on defense where he is a liability — but he is perhaps their most reliable scorer. They have played 18 of their last 26 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 7 of their last 9 meetings Under the Total when playing in Toronto. 25* NBA 1st Round Atlantic Division Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia 76ers (567) and the Toronto Raptors (568). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-27-22 |
Kings v. Seattle Kraken UNDER 6 |
Top |
5-3 |
Loss |
-102 |
5 h 41 m |
Show
|
At 10:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Kings (59) and the Seattle Kraken (60). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (43-27-10) has won four games in a row after their 4-2 victory against Anaheim on Saturday. Seattle (26-47-6) is on a three-game losing streak after their 5-2 loss at Vancouver last night.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Kings have clinched a spot in the Western Conference playoffs — but they are still jockeying for seeding. This is a defensive-first team that will want to maintain that focus in the final days of regular season before the intensity from the playoffs amps up. Los Angeles has seen six or fewer combined goals scored in eight of their last eleven games. They are only scoring 2.85 Goals-Per-Game in their last 13 contests. The Under is 4-1-1 in the Kings’ last 6 games after a win — and the Under is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games after not allowing more than two goals in their last game. Jonathan Quick is the likely goaltender tonight for the Kings. The veteran is playing his best hockey entering the postseason — he has a 2.11 Goals-Against-Average in his seven starts this month. In his last four starts, he has a .944 save percentage — and he has not allowed more than two goals in any of these four games. They hit the road where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total. Seattle has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing without a day of rest. The Under is also 5-2-1 in their last 8 games after a loss by three or more goals. The Kraken have seen six or less fewer combined goals scored in seven of their last eleven games. They are likely to turn to Chris Dredger between the pipes tonight. He has allowed two or less goals in four of his last seven starts. He also has played quite well in his two previous starts against Kings against which he stopped 55 of the 58 shots he faced fora .948 save percentage. This expansion team has been a solid defensive team that ranks ninth in the NHL in expected goals allowed per 60 minutes when playing at five-on-five full strength. Seattle has played 5 of their last 6 games at home Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles will be motivated to avenge a 6-1 loss at home to the Kraken on March 28th — and they have played 27 of their last 40 games Under the Total playing with revenge from a loss where they did not score more than one goal. 25* NHL Pacific Division Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Kings (59) and the Seattle Kraken (60). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-27-22 |
Bulls v. Bucks UNDER 218 |
Top |
100-116 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 53 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bulls (553) and the Milwaukee Bucks (554) in Game Five of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Chicago (47-39) looks to stave off elimination tonight after losing by a 119-95 score at home to the Bucks as a 4.5-point underdog on Sunday. Milwaukee (54-32) has a 3-1 lead in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Chicago lost their second-best offensive player yesterday when Zack LaVine once again tested positive for COVID — he is out for tonight’s game. The Bulls will also be without Alex Caruso who is in the concussion protocol. Chicago will miss Caruso’s contributions on defense — but the net effect of losing both players is a net loss on the offensive end of the court. As it is, the Bulls are only scoring 94.2 points per 100 possessions in the playoffs which is the second-worst of all the teams in the first round of the playoffs. They are making just 39.8% of their shots in this series which is generating only 94.0 Points-Per-Game. Chicago has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a loss at home to a Central Division rival. And while they have lost seven of their last nine games, they have then played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total after losing five or six of their last seven contests. Now they go back on the road where they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. The Bulls have played 5 straight playoff games Under the Total. And in their last 20 games against division opponents, Chicago has played 16 of these contests Under the Total while scoring just 102.4 PPG in those 20 games — but allowing only 105.1 PPG. Milwaukee has played 10 of their last 11 home games Under the Total after a win by 20 or more points on the road. They return home where they have played 6 of their last 7 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. The Bucks will continue to playing without Khris Middleton who scored 20.1 PPG and averaged 5.4 Assists-Per-Game. Milwaukee has stepped up to nail 43.2% of their 74 shots from behind the arc in their last two games. The Bucks shoot 36.4% from 3-point range at home — so the Regression Gods are likely to make a visit. Milwaukee made 52.3% of their shots on Sunday which was the best shooting mark in their last seven contests. The Under is 15-5-2 in the Bucks’ last 22 games in the playoffs when favored. They have also played 15 of their last 20 games Under the Total against Central Division rivals.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 6 straight Unders when playing in Milwaukee. Chicago has played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total on the road when avenging a 20-point loss at home — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a loss by 10 or more points. 25* NBA Central Division Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bulls (553) and the Milwaukee Bucks (554). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-26-22 |
Wolves v. Grizzlies -5.5 |
Top |
109-111 |
Loss |
-115 |
2 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Memphis Grizzlies (542) minus the points versus the Minnesota Timberwolves (541) in Game Five of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Memphis (58-28) had won the previous two games in this series before losing on the road to the Timberwolves by a 119-118 score as a 2.5-point favorite. Minnesota (49-38) has evened this series at 2-2.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GRIZZLIES MINUS THE POINTS: Minnesota had most things go right for them in Game Four. They made 47.3% of their shots from the field — their best shooting effort since Game One — and nailed 18 of their 36 (50%) shots from behind the arc. After losing the free throw attempt battle by at least four shots in each of the first three games of the series, they took 40 shots from the charity stripe on Sunday — and they converted 31 of these shots which were six more than all of Memphis’ attempts from the free-throw line. Karl Anthony-Towns exploded with 33 points while steering away from the foul problems that plagued him in the previous two games. Ja Morant only scored 11 points on 4 of 13 shooting. Yet despite all these fortunate events, Minnesota only won the game by one point. The T-Wolves have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after a win by six points or less. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after an upset win at home. Now they go on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games on the road as an underdog. Memphis has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 15 games after a loss on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 37 of their last 55 games after a point spread loss. Head coach Taylor Jenkins ripped the referees after the game for the foul disparity — look for the Grizzlies to once again win the free throw attempt battle back on their home court. Morant should play better back at home as well. He has a 52.3% effective field goal percentage with a 40.4% shooting clip at home as opposed to his 46.6% effective field goal percentage and 29.6% mark from 3-point range on the road. Memphis has covered the point spread in 18 of their last 23 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games when favored. The Grizzlies have also covered the point spread in 26 of their last 37 games when favored overall.
FINAL TAKE: Memphis has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games when avenging a loss on the road. 25* NBA Tuesday TNT Game of the Month with the Memphis Grizzlies (542) minus the points versus the Minnesota Timberwolves (541). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-24-22 |
Bucks v. Bulls +4 |
Top |
119-95 |
Loss |
-110 |
13 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Chicago Bulls (522) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (521) in Game Three of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Chicago (47-38) has lost six of their last eight games after their 111-81 loss at home to the Bucks as a 2.5-point underdog on Friday. Milwaukee (53-32) took a 2-1 lead in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLS PLUS THE POINTS: We were not surprised that the Bucks stepped up to play their best game in this series in Game Three in response to Khris Middleton’s MCL strain in Game Two which will keep him out the rest of the series. But with the knowledge that the defending champions gained that they can raise their level of play and blow this Chicago team off the court, do they resort back to the lackadaisical group that was sluggish in the first two games of this series? Milwaukee swept the Bulls in their four regular-season games by a +14.7 net Points-Per-Game average. But they only made 40.5% of their shots in Game One which was the worst shooting effort in their last 35 games before losing Game Two with their mild improvement in shooting to a 45.8% clip. Sloppiness with the basketball played a large role in the first two games — they committed 21 turnovers in Game One before committing 15 turnovers in Game Two. The Bucks were better in protecting the basketball on Friday with them only turning the ball over nine times. But with point guard George Hill still out with an abdominal injury, don’t be surprised if these turnover issues rear its ugly head again. The Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread victory. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a double-digit victory. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games after not allowing more than 105 points in their last contest. Milwaukee made 47.3% of their shots without Middleton in Game Three which was the best shooting effort in their last four games. But the Bucks are likely to have trouble consistently getting baskets without Middleton who was scoring 20.1 Points-Per-Game. Milwaukee was fifth in the NBA by scoring 115.6 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time — but that clip drops to 109.7 points per 100 possessions when playing without Middleton on the court. The Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games against teams with a winning percentage in the 51% to 60% range. Chicago has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 27 games after losing two of their last three games. After a sluggish second half to the season, the Bulls have more closely resembled the team that opened the campaign with a 27-11 record. Getting Alex Caruso back from injury has made a big difference as he is the team’s best player on defense. The team certainly still misses Lonzo Ball — but their team dynamic may be better served to compete under the pressure of playoff basketball. They have a savvy veteran in DeMar DeRozan who silenced his critics that he disappears in the playoffs from his past experiences with Toronto and San Antonio by scoring 41 points in their upset win in Game Two. Chicago only made 9 of their 34 shots from behind the arc on Friday for a 26% shooting percentage en route to a 39.3% mark for the game. They should shoot better in Game Four on their home court again where they make 48.3% of their shots including 36.8% of their shots from 3-point range to generate 113.4 PPG. The Bulls had a 27-14 record while covering the point spread in 25 of their 41 games on their home court. They have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 18 home games with the Total set in the 210-219.5 point range.
FINAL TAKE: Chicago has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games when playing with revenge from a loss at home by 20 or more points. 25* NBA Central Division Underdog of the Year with the Chicago Bulls (522) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (521). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-23-22 |
Grizzlies v. Wolves UNDER 232.5 |
Top |
118-119 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Memphis Grizzlies (517) and the Minnesota Timberwolves (518) in Game Four of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Memphis (58-27) won their second straight game in this series with their 104-95 victory against the Timberwolves as a 2-point road favorite on Thursday. Minnesota (48-38) blew a 26-point lead in the game and now trail 2-1 in this best-of-seven series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Head coach Taylor Jenkins has made an important adjustment in this series which should generate lowering-scoring games. After the Timberwolves scored 130 points in their 13-point upset victory, Jenkins only played big man Steven Adams for less in three minutes in Game Two with the Grizzlies holding Minnesota to 96 points. Adams did not play in Game Three. Karl Anthony-Towns was too much for Adams to defend — but Jaren Jackson Jr. and Brandon Clarke have been a handful for Towns to handle. Towns scored only 8 points on Thursday while taking a mere four shots from the field. The T-Wolves scored just 12 points in the fourth quarter in their historic collapse which was the biggest blown lead in loss in the history of the NBA playoffs. Memphis has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread win — and they have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a game where neither team scored more than 105 points. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after holding their last two opponents to no more than 100 points. The Grizzlies are a very good defensive team who ranked sixth in the NBA by holding their opponents to scoring just 108.9 points per 100 possessions — and they are better on that end of the court when benching Adams (while losing his significant offensive contributions). Memphis is fourth in Offensive Rating this season — but they score -2.0 fewer points per 100 possessions when playing on the road at a 112.3 rate, dropping to tenth in the league. The Grizzlies have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. They have also played 9 of their last 11 road games Under the Total with the Total set at 230 or higher — and they have played 4 straight road games Under the Total when favored. Furthermore, Memphis has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when favored. Minnesota is seventh in the NBA by scoring at a 113.8 points per 100 possession rate — but their offensive efficiency at home drops to 111.8 points per 100 possession rate which is 19th in the league. The Timberwolves are scoring just 95.5. Points-Per-Game in the last two games in this series — and now their leading scorer, Anthony Edwards, might be slowed with a knee injury. Minnesota has played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total as an underdog. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: The pace has slowed down in this series — and that is likely to continue. Memphis averages 94 shots per game — but they attempted only 83 shots on Thursday after taking 86 and 92 shots in the first games in this series. Minnesota averages 91 shots per game — but after taking 90 shots in Game One with Adams still in the rotation, the T-Wolves took only 76 shots in Game Two and 85 shots in Game Three. These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games in Minnesota Under the Total. 25* NBA Saturday ESPN Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Memphis Grizzlies (517) and the Minnesota Timberwolves (518). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-22-22 |
Bucks -2 v. Bulls |
Top |
111-81 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 43 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Milwaukee Bucks (503) minus the points versus the Chicago Bulls (504) in Game Three of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (52-32) looks to rebound from a 114-110 upset loss at home to the Bulls as a 10-point favorite on Wednesday. Chicago (47-37) evened this series at 1-1 with the victory.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKS MINUS THE POINTS: Milwaukee had their worst shooting game in 35 contests in Game One of this series by making just 40.5% of their shots. Rather than tightening things up, the Bucks were flat — particularly on defense — in Game Two against a team they had beaten in all five of their meetings this season. It is not uncommon for reigning NBA champions to become complacent. But now after that embarrassing result at home and now the series-ending injury to Khris Middleton, Milwaukee has lost the luxury of thinking they can take things for granted. The loss of Middleton is tough — but head coach Mike Budenholzer has credible options to turn to in Bobby Ports, Grayson Allen, and Pat Connaughton. Jrue Holiday and Brook Lopez remain as core pieces to this championship team. And the Bucks still have Giannis Antetokounmpo who is scoring 30 Points-Per-Game in this series on 53.8% shooting while averaging 17 Rebounds-Per-Game and 6.0 Assists-Per-Game. Led by Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee should play their best game of the series tonight with this new sense of urgency. As it is, the Bucks have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 road games when favored. This veteran team has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 playoff games when the series is tied. Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset win against a Central Division rival. Now the Bulls return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Furthermore, Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 49 of their last 72 home games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games as an underdog this season. And in their last 8 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%, the Bulls have failed to cover the point spread 7 times.
FINAL TAKE: Milwaukee has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games against the Bulls in Chicago. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when avenging an upset loss where they were at least a 7-point favorite. 25* NBA ABC-TV Game of the Month with the Milwaukee Bucks (503) minus the points versus the Chicago Bulls (504). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-20-22 |
76ers v. Raptors +2.5 |
Top |
104-101 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Toronto Raptors (564) plus the points versus the Philadelphia 76ers (563) in Game Three of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Toronto (48-36) has lost three straight games after losing on the road to the 76ers by a 112-97 score as a 7.5-point underdog on Monday. Philadelphia (53-31) has won four straight games while taking a 2-0 lead in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAPTORS PLUS THE POINTS: It may look tough to back Toronto after losing the first two games of this series by 20 and 15 points. Injuries have played a role. Scottie Barnes is still listed as doubtful tonight with his ankle injury but Gary Trent, Jr. should play after playing 10 minutes on Monday. He was not effective but the two additional days of fluids should help him play better tonight after a case of the flu. The Raptors still lack the size to deal with Joel Embiid with Barnes out — but in head coach Nick Nurse, I trust, to get this team playing better back on their home court. Toronto has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after a loss on the road. Furthermore, the Raptors have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games after a loss by 15 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 32 games after losing two in a row by 15 or more points. Toronto has not covered the point spread in their three-game losing streak — but they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after not covering the point spread in three straight games. And they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games when on a three-game losing streak. The Sixers have made 51.2% and 52.2% of their shots in this series — but the Raptors have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after allowing their last two opponents to nail at least 50% of their shots. Back at home, Toronto has covered the point spread in 5 straight games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight home games as an underdog. The Raptors have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 24 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. They have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 37 games against teams with a winning record — and they have still covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals. Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 26 games after covering the point spread in their last two games as the favorite. And while the 76ers have won their last four games by at least 12 points, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after winning at least three in a row by double-digits. Philly held the Raptors to just 42.7% shooting on Monday which was the best defensive effort in their last 11 games. But now this team goes back on the road where they have not been as effective. They are not likely to continue a 32 to 17.5 free throw attempt average as they have enjoyed in the first two games in Philadelphia. The Sixers will probably see fewer of their 3-pointers fall in Toronto as well — while they are nailing a red-hot 49% of their shots from behind the arc in this series, they should come closer to their 36.7% shooting percentage from 3-point range moving forward. Philly will not have Matisse Thybulle tonight since he is not vaccinated against COVID which precludes him from traveling to Canada. Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games on the road — and they are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record at home. The 76ers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games when favored.
FINAL TAKE: Toronto has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when avenging two straight losses by double-digits to their opponent. The Sixers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in Toronto against the Raptors. 25* NBA Round One Eastern Conference Playoff Underdog of the Year with the Toronto Raptors (564) plus the points versus the Philadelphia 76ers (563). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-19-22 |
Wolves v. Grizzlies -6.5 |
Top |
96-124 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Memphis Grizzlies (552) minus the points versus the Minnesota Timberwolves (551) in Game Two of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Memphis (56-27) has lost four of their last five games after their 130-117 upset loss to the Timberwolves in the opening game of this best-of-seven series. Minnesota (48-36) has won five of their last seven games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GRIZZLIES MINUS THE POINTS: Memphis’ lack of playoff experience may have caught up with them in their opening game in the playoffs this postseason against a Timberwolves team that got through the Play-In Tournament. But the Grizzlies remain a talented and deep team that was just one of two teams in the NBA to post a top-six ranking in both Offensive and Defensive Ratings. They have allowed three of their last four opponents to make at least 50% of their shots — and they missed 20 of their 27 shots from behind the arc on Saturday. Memphis locked up the second seed before the regular season ended — and now it is the time for them to ramp up their intensity again under head coach Taylor Jenkins. The Grizzlies have Ja Morant back — and Jenkins is one of the best young coaches in the game. They should respond with a strong effort to even this series at 1-1. Memphis has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 30 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 37 of their last 51 games after a loss by double-digits. They still have a 30-11 record on their home court — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 22 games at home. The Grizzlies have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when favored. Minnesota got what they needed with the victory in Game One to seize home-court advantage in this series — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after scoring at least 125 points in their last game. They stay on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games — and they are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. The Timberwolves have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 road games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Memphis has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games when avenging a double-digit loss. I appreciate that Minnesota is better than their record after enduring a regular-season dealing with injuries and COVID issues. But they too are inexperienced in the postseason. Don’t be surprised if their effort is underwhelming tonight. As it is, the T-Wolves have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games against the Grizzlies — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games in Memphis. 25* NBA-TV Game of the Year is on the Memphis Grizzlies (552) minus the points versus the Minnesota Timberwolves (551). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-18-22 |
Nuggets v. Warriors UNDER 222.5 |
Top |
106-126 |
Loss |
-115 |
5 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (545) and the Golden State Warriors (546) in Game Two of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Denver (48-35) looks to rebound from their 123-107 loss in the opening game of this best-of-seven series. Golden State (54-29) has won six games in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Warriors made 52.4% of their shots on Saturday while nailing 16 of their 35 shots from behind the arc. Stephen Curry returned from injury to play over 21 minutes and score 16 points. But it was Jordan Poole who led the way with 30 points on 9 of 13 shooting. Overall, Golden State scored a scorching 129.4 points per 100 possession rate. With Curry rejoining Klay Thompson, Draymond Green, and Poole, the Warriors are a dynamic scoring team. But it is too much to expect consistent performances like what they did to the Nuggets on Saturday. The Regression Gods are likely coming for this team tonight. While they are a great outside shooting team, a clip more like their 37.2% shooting percentage from behind the arc when playing at home is more likely tonight. And while Curry is a cheat code who unlocks scoring opportunities for others when he is not knocking down 3-pointers, Golden State scored at a 114.1 points per 100 possession rate with him on the court this season — so Game One’s numbers were definitely a high-end outlier. But the Warriors should play better on the other end of the court after allowing the Nuggets to make 46.2% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last seven games. Golden State is second in the NBA by holding their opponents to 107.6 points per 100 possessions — and much of those numbers were generating without an injured Draymond Green. They held their opponents to more than 3 fewer points per 100 possessions with Green on the court in the regular season. The Warriors were also third in the NBA by limiting their opponents to scoring at just a 91.2 points per 100 possession rate in the half-court where Denver does most of their damage via Nikola Jokic. Golden State has played 35 of their last 57 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory — including 14 of their last 21 games after a win by 10 or more points. The Warriors have covered the point spread in six of their last seven games — and they have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. They have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after winning six in a row. And in their last 23 games when playing for just the second time in five days, they have played 17 of these games Under the Total. In their last five games at home in Chase Arena, Golden State has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. They have also played 13 of their last 21 home games Under the Total with the Total set at 220 or higher. Denver should play better on defense as the 52.4% field goal percentage was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last four games. The Nuggets have issues on defense — but their starting five does hold their opponents to just 106.5 points per 100 possessions which would rank second in the league if compared to overall regular season averages. Perhaps head coach Michael Malone will adjust by shortening his bench even more. The Warriors made Jokic work very hard on both ends of the court on Saturday. He scored 25 points but he also took 25 shots from the field. Green will continue to make his life difficult. While he did not play in any of the four games in the regular season between these two clubs, Green had held Jokic to just 15.7 Points-Per-Game with a 47.9% field goal percentage in his previous 18 games in his career to defend him. The Nuggets lack a reliable secondary scorer to complement Jokic with Jamal Murray and Michael Porter, Jr. still out with injuries. Denver only got to the rim for 20% of their shots in Game One — the Warriors may be able to reduce Denver to mostly a jump-shooting team. The Nuggets score 2.1 fewer PPG on the road — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: While Game One finished Over the Total, these two teams have still played 6 of their last 8 meetings Under the Total. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games in Golden State Under the Total. 25* NBA Monday TNT Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (545) and the Golden State Warriors (546). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-17-22 |
Pelicans v. Suns UNDER 224.5 |
Top |
99-110 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 27 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Pelicans (531) and the Phoenix Suns (532) in Game One of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: New Orleans (38-46) has won seven of their last ten games after their 105-101 victory in Los Angeles against the Clippers as a 1.5-point on Friday. Phoenix (64-18) has lost four of their last six games after their 116-109 upset loss as a 10-point favorite last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Pelicans have proven they can ramp up their intensity on defense in the postseason after holding their two opponents in the Play-In Tournament to just 40.9% shooting which has resulted in just 102.0 Points-Per-Game. New Orleans has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and the Under is 33-16-2 in their last 51 games after a point spread victory. The Pelicans stay on the road to begin this series where the Under is 15-5-1 in their last 21 games — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. New Orleans has also played 25 of their last 34 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Phoenix allowed the Kings to nail 52.6% of their shots last week with their key players resting — that was the worst defensive effort in their last eight games. The Under is 19-6-1 in the Suns’ last 26 games after a straight-up loss. Phoenix has also played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total when playing with at least three days of rest. The Suns play outstanding defense — they rank third in the NBA by holding their opponents to just 106.6 points per 100 possessions. They host this game where they have played 4 straight Unders when favored. They have also played 25 of their last 40 games Under the Total in the with the Total set in the 220s. Additionally, the Under is 8-1-1 in their last 10 games in the Western Conference Quarterfinals.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams last played on March 15th with the Suns winning in New Orleans by a 131-115 score as a 4.5-point favorite. The Pelicans have played 22 of their last 33 games Under the Total when playing on the road attempting to avenge a home loss — and they have played 15 of their last 20 games on the road when playing with revenge from a loss where they allowed at least 110 points. 25* NBA Sunday TNT Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Pelicans (531) and the Phoenix Suns (532). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-16-22 |
Wolves v. Grizzlies -6.5 |
Top |
130-117 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 26 m |
Show
|
At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Memphis Grizzlies (520) minus the points versus the Minnesota Timberwolves (519) in Game One of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Memphis (56-26) enters the playoffs having lost three of their last four games after their 139-110 loss to Boston as a 9.5-point underdog last Sunday. Minnesota (47-36) has won four of their last six games after their 109-104 win against the Los Angeles Clippers as a 3.5-point favorite in the Play-In Tournament on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GRIZZLIES MINUS THE POINTS: The Timberwolves orchestrated a dramatic comeback by rallying from a six-point deficit entering the fourth quarter by outscoring the Clippers by a 31-20 margin despite playing most of that final 12 minutes with Karl Anthony-Towns. After the game, Patrick Beverley partied like it was 1999 in front of the home fans after sticking it to his former team. Anthony Edwards scored 30 points and D’Angelo Russell added 29 points. After that accomplishment, I am expecting a big emotional letdown with this team now in the official playoffs. As it is, Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after a victory by six points or less. The Timberwolves are a tough out at home where they have a 27-15 record. But on the road, Minnesota is just 20-21 while allowing their opponents to make 48.4% of their shots. The T-Wolves have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games on the road as an underdog. Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. To compound matters, they may be without Taurean Prince for this game who is questionable with a knee injury. The former Baylor star scored 10.5 Points-Per-Game while averaging more than 20 minutes per game off the bench since the All-Star break. Memphis has rested all week licking their chops for their opponent to survive the Play-In Tournament — and they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games when playing with at least three days of rest. They rested their starters last Sunday in a game where they only made 38.2% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last 23 games. But the Grizzlies have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after a double-digit loss. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing 125 or more points in their last contest. Memphis has been dominant at home with a 30-11 record — and they have covered the point spread in 27 of those 41 games. Furthermore, the Grizzlies have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 17 home games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. The team has Ja Morant back in the mix after he missed extended time in the second half of the season. Memphis is real good — only they and Phoenix finished the regular season ranked in the top-six and Offensive and Defensive Efficiency. They have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 33 games when favored.
FINAL TAKE: Memphis will be motivated to avenge a 119-114 upset loss at Minnesota as a 1.5-point road favorite on February 24th. The Grizzlies have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games when playing with revenge — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games when avenging an upset loss as a road favorite. The Timberwolves have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games against the Grizzlies — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 32 games in Memphis. 25* NBA Saturday ESPN Game of the Month with the Memphis Grizzlies (520) minus the points versus the Minnesota Timberwolves (519). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-15-22 |
Hawks v. Cavs +2.5 |
Top |
107-101 |
Loss |
-110 |
6 h 28 m |
Show
|
At 7:35 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Cleveland Cavaliers (510) plus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (509) in the Play-In Tournament. THE SITUATION: Cleveland (44-39) has lost four of their last five games after their 115-108 loss at Brooklyn as a 9.5-point underdog in their first Play-In game on Tuesday. Atlanta (44-39) won their eighth game in their last ten games with a 132-103 victory against Charlotte as a 5-point favorite in their first Play-In game on Wednesday. The winner of this game seizes the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs and plays at Miami on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CAVALIERS PLUS THE POINTS: Cleveland allowed the Nets to make 53.6% of their shots on Tuesday which was the worst defensive mark in their last 11 games. But after digging themselves a hole early with a 20-point deficit after the first quarter, the Cavs did keep fighting to stay competitive and cover the point spread. Darius Garland was outstanding as he nailed 13 of his 24 shots en route to 34 points. Cleveland is 26-10-2 ATS in their last 38 games after a point spread win. The Cavaliers have covered the point spread in their last two games — and they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 27 games after covering the point spread in two straight games. And while they have dropped six of their last eight games, they have then covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after losing five or six of their last seven games. Returning home will help this team where they were 25-16 this season (as opposed to their 19-23 record on the road). They are also 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 home games as an underdog. Cleveland also may get Jarrett Allen back for this game — and that would be a big shot in the arm for this team. The Cavaliers already got rookie big man Evan Mobley back earlier this week — and if they can also get Allen back on the court after missing 19 games from a finger injury, they have their dynamic duo in the middle which makes them a very difficult team to score against. With Allen on the court, Cleveland allows -3.2 fewer points per 100 possessions. He has been upgraded to questionable for tonight’s game — and he clearly wants to play given that the Cavs’ season could end tonight with a loss. Even if Allen does not play, Cleveland should stay competitive in this game with a real chance to extend their season. Having a veteran like Rajon Rondo playing alongside Garland should help in this one-and-done playoff game. Atlanta comes off one of their best games of the season. They held the Hornets to just 37.8% shooting which was the best defensive performance in their last 35 games. They also nailed 52.1% of their shots which was the best shooting percentage in their last seven contests. Trae Young scored 24 points but only on 8 of 24 shooting. Five other players scoring in double figures helped compensate for Young missing seven of his eight shots from behind the arc. Interestingly, the deeper analytics projected that the Hawks would typically only win that game against the Hornets by six points based on the expected points from the quality of shots taken. A letdown looks likely for this team — and this is a group not playing at full strength who has not been nearly as effective on the road. Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after a straight-up win. The Hawks have also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games on the road after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games on the road after winning two of their last three games. Atlanta thrives at home where they have a 28-14 record — but they are just 16-25 on the road. The Hawks have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 26 road games against teams with a winning record at home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 road games when favored by up to six points. Injuries continue to keep this team undermanned. Lou Williams is out and now Bogan Bogdanovich is questionable with an ankle. But it is the likely absence of big man John Collins for the 18th straight game that looms most ominous in this matchup. Atlanta needs his size against Mobley and potentially Allen in the middle. The Hawks have managed to out-rebound their last three opponents by at least ten boards after winning the rebounding battle against the Hornets by a 54-41 margin. But Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after out-rebounding their last three opponents.
FINAL TAKE: The Hawks have won the last three meetings between these two teams — but the Cavaliers have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games when playing with triple revenge. The recent success against Cleveland — and their easy one on Wednesday — may work against this Atlanta team that reached the Eastern Conference Finals last season. 25* NBA Play-In Tournament Game of the Year with the Cleveland Cavaliers (510) plus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (509). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-13-22 |
Spurs v. Pelicans -5 |
Top |
103-113 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the New Orleans Pelicans (508) minus the points versus the San Antonio Spurs (507) in the Play-In Tournament. THE SITUATION: New Orleans (36-46) enters this game coming off two straight losses after a 128-107 loss to Golden State as a 6.5-point underdog on Sunday. San Antonio (34-48) has lost three in a row after their 130-120 loss at Dallas as a 10-point underdog on Sunday. The winner of this game plays in Los Angeles against the Clippers on Friday to determine the 8th seed in the Western Conference playoffs.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PELICANS MINUS THE POINTS: New Orleans had won eight of eleven games to clinch hosting this play-in game before dropping their last two games with nothing more that was mathematically possible to gain. This team is much better than their record. The Pelicans started the season by losing 13 of 16 games dealing with not having Zion Williamson on the court. But the team adapted and started playing better under rookie head coach Willie Greene. This club was then transformed with the acquisition of C.J. McCollum at the trade deadline. The former Portland Trail Blazer is scoring 24.3 Points-Per-Game while making 49.3% of his shots — and he is averaging a career-high in assists and rebounds while embracing a leadership role he could never have playing alongside Damian Lillard in Portland. McCollum offers the team a dynamic one-two punch with Brandon Ingram. Although those two only played 15 games together this season, they won nine of those contests. Ingram was dealing with a hamstring injury last week but he has been upgraded to probable alongside Jonas Valuncianas, Devonte Graham, and Herbert Jones who should all be good to go. Since the All-Star break, New Orleans ranks seventh in the NBA in Net Rating while ranking 10th in the league with their Offensive Rating and ninth with their Defensive Rating. They did allow the Warriors to make 60.5% of their shots on Sunday — but they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after allowing their last opponent to make at least 55% of their shots. The Pelicans have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. Furthermore, while New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after not covering the point spread in their last two contests. Additionally, the Pelicans have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games at home when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a losing record. San Antonio has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a double-digit loss to a Southwest Division rival. The Spurs are solid but unspectacular. They rank 17th in Net Rating for the season with an Offensive Rating that is 17th in the NBA and a Defensive Rating that is 16th. Since the All-Star break, San Antonio ranks 19th in Net Rating, placing 17th still in Offensive Rating and 16th in Defensive Rating. Their .414 winning percentage would not have been good enough to reach the Play-In Tournament last season, but they were the beneficiaries of the second-half collapses by the Lakers and Trail Blazers. Future Hall of Fame head coach Gregg Popovich has gotten the most out of his roster. But New Orleans holds a significant talent edge now that they have McCollum playing alongside Ingram. The Spurs have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 road games as an underdog getting up to six points.
FINAL TAKE: San Antonio allows their opponents to make 46.6% of their shots — and the Pelicans have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games in the second half of the season against teams who allow their opponents to make at least 46% of their shots. 25* NBA Southwest Division Game of the Year with the New Orleans Pelicans (508) minus the points versus the San Antonio Spurs (507). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|