03-13-21 |
Iona -8 v. Fairfield |
Top |
60-51 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 40 m |
Show
|
At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Iona Gaels (613) minus the points versus the Fairfield Stags (614) in the championship game of the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference tournament. THE SITUATION: Iona (11-5) won their fifth game in a row with their 70-64 win against Niagara as a 6-point favorite yesterday. Fairfield (10-16) pulled off their fourth straight upset yesterday in a 52-47 upset victory against St. Peter’s as a 6-point favorite. The Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference tournament is being played at Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GAELS MINUS THE POINTS: Fairfield upset Manhattan twice in a row before dispatching Monmouth before the St. Peter’s yesterday. Not exactly a Murderer’s Row — St. Peter’s is ranked 220 by metrics guru Ken Pomeroy while he has Monmouth 228 and Manhattan at 316. Iona is a significant step up in competition — Pomeroy ranks them 185th with some of the other power rankings I use placing them in the 140s. Look for the Stags’ bubble to burst. They are just 9-21-1 ATS in their last 32 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after a point spread win. Additionally, Fairfield has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games after not allowing more than 55 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 50 points. The Peacocks are a great defensive team — but these Gaels are in another class when it comes to the offense so this will be a much harder test on the Stags’ defensive play this afternoon. As it is, Fairfield ranks 273rd nationally in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency which is worse than their 258th ranking in that metric when playing at home. The Stags are going to struggle to keep up as they only make 39.8% of their shots on the road which is generating just 60.5 PPG. Fairfield has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not scoring more than 55 points. And in their last 5 games when playing their third game in five days, they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of these contests. Iona leads the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they are averaging 75.2 PPG in their last five games. They are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after winning three in a row after conference rivals. The Gaels have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when playing their second game in three days. Iona has been more effective away from home. While they rank 175th in Adjusted Net Efficiency at home, they rise to 122nd nationally in that metric on the road. They rank 41st nationally and tops in the conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road. They have held their last five opponents to just 36.3% shooting which is resulting in only 63.0 PPG. While they are outscoring their opponents by +6.1 PPG this season, they have outscored their last five opponents by +12.2 PPG during their winning streak. Iona is 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games against teams with a losing record — and they are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite. They are also 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games played on a neutral court.
FINAL TAKE: Iona will also have a chip on their shoulder to avenge a 67-52 upset loss at home to Fairfield on December 12th as a 7.5-point underdog. The Gaels ahem covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games when avenging an upset loss as a favorite of at least 7 points. 25* CBB Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Game of the Year with the Iona Gaels (613) minus the points versus the Fairfield Stags (614). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-12-21 |
New Mexico State v. Utah Valley +6.5 |
Top |
78-62 |
Loss |
-103 |
1 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 11:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Utah Valley State Wolverines (866) plus the points versus the New Mexico State Aggies (865) in the Semifinals of the Western Athletic Conference tournament. THE SITUATION: Utah Valley State (10-10) had their three-game winning streak snapped last Saturday in a 74-64 loss at Grand Canyon as a 7-point underdog. New Mexico State (11-7) won their fourth straight game as well as their sixth of their last seven in a 77-61 victory against Utah Rio Grande Valley last night as a 12-point favorite. The WAC tournament is being played on a neutral court at the Orleans Arena in Las Vegas.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLVERINES PLUS THE POINTS: Utah Valley State is rested and motivated by revenge tonight. In their last loss to Grand Canyon last week, they allowed the Antelopes to make 50% of their shots in the worst defensive effort in their last six games. Utah Valley State has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a point spread loss. The Wolverines have also covered the points spread in 6 of their last 7 games when playing with five or six days of rest. Utah Valley State tends to play better on the road where they rank 169th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency as opposed to their 198th ranking when playing at home. The Wolverines are just 271st in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing at home — but they climb to 110th nationally in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when on the road. It is as if head coach Mark Madsen has constructed his team to be the slayers of this New Mexico State team that has been the perennial powerhouse in the WAC. The Aggies are typically one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the nation — this season, they rank 11th in the nation by rebounding 36.0% of their missed shots. But the Wolverines limit their opponents to rebounding only 23.9% of their missed shots, 33rd in the nation. Utah Valley also draws tons of fouls — they are third nationally in free throw rate. New Mexico State is 202nd in the nation in defensive free throw rate. The Wolverines have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. And while they make a healthy 47.5% of their shots, the Aggies have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games against teams who make at least 45% of their shots. New Mexico State made 52% of their shots last night which was the highest field goal percentage in their last five games. But the Aggies are still only making 40.7% of their shots on the road — so the Regression Gods may be making an appearance tonight. New Mexico State has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread victory. The Aggies have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win against a WAC foe by double-digits — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games after a win by at least 15 points. New Mexico State has won their last four games by double-digits — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after winning four in a row by 10 or more points. The Aggies have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games with the Total set in the 130s.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams split their two regular-season games with the Wolverines winning the first game on February 19th by a 69-66 score as a 9-point underdog before losing to the New Mexico State, 67-60, on February 20th. Look for this third and final meeting to be a close game where having the points will be very valuable. 25* CBB WAC Game of the Year is on the Utah Valley State Wolverines (866) plus the points versus the New Mexico State Aggies (865). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-12-21 |
North Carolina v. Florida State -2 |
Top |
66-69 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Florida State Seminoles (854) minus the points versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (853) in the Semifinals of the ACC Tournament. THE SITUATION: Florida State (15-5) advanced in their quarterfinals matchup with Duke when the Blue Devils pulled out of the tournament after a positive COVID test yesterday. North Carolina (18-9) has won three in a row after their 81-73 win against Virginia Tech as a -0.5-point favorite yesterday. The ACC tournament is being played at the Greensboro Coliseum in Greensboro, North Carolina.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SEMINOLES MINUS THE POINTS: Florida State not only dodged Duke yesterday but they gained a situational edge with an extra day of rest against a Tar Heels’ team playing their third game in three days. Leonard Hamilton may very well be the most underrated head coach in the country (all sports) -- and his teams play with energy and a fast pace. Look for the Seminoles to pull away late in this game — they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games when playing just their second game in eight days. Florida State will be anxious to get the back taste out of their mouth when they last played on Saturday when they were upset at Notre Dame by an 83-73 score as a 5.5-point favorite in a result that cost them the top seed in this tournament. The Seminoles allowed the Irish to make 42.6% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last five games. Florida State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a point spread loss. The Seminoles have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games against teams winning 60-80% of their games under Hamilton. North Carolina may be due for a letdown after their nice recent run. The Tar Heels have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after winning two in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games after winning three in a row. And while North Carolina has covered the point spread in four of their last five games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after covering four of their last five. Roy Williams’ team leads the nation in offensive rebounding — and they are at their best when controlling the glass. They have outrebounded their two opponents in the ACC Tournament by 11 and 23 boards. But the Tar Heels have failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight games after outrebounding their last two opponents by at least rebounds. Florida State pounds the offensive glass as well — they rank 16th in the nation in offensive rebounding rate. North Carolina ranks third in the ACC and 60th nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — but they drop to 12th in the ACC and 76th nationally when playing on the road. This is not a good shooting team — they only make 31.6% of their shots from behind the arc which is 273rd in the nation. They rely on shots inside the arc where they make 49.5% of their 2-point attempts — but that is only 101st in the nation. The Seminoles play tough interior defense — they rank 11th in the nation by limiting their opponents to just 44.2% shooting inside the arc. North Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games on a neutral court as an underdog getting up to 3 points. And while Florida State averages 79.6 PPG, the Tar Heels have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams who score at least 77 PPG.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams split their two regular-season encounters — but North Carolina won the last battle in a 78-70 upset win in Chapel Hill as a 2-point dog on February 27th. Florida State has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games when avenging an upset loss as a road favorite. 25* CBB ACC Game of the Year with the Florida State Seminoles (854) minus the points versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (853). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-12-21 |
North Texas v. Louisiana Tech UNDER 127.5 |
Top |
54-48 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the North Texas Mean Green (837) and the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (838) in the Semifinals of the Conference USA tournament. THE SITUATION: North Texas (15-9) won their second game in a row along with their sixth in their last nine contests with their 61-55 win against Old Dominion as a 4-point favorite last night. Louisiana Tech (21-6) has won six in a row with their 75-69 win against FAU as a 7-point favorite yesterday. The Conference USA tournament is being played at the Ford Center at The Star in Frisco, Texas.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: We had the Mean Green Under last night with one of the reasons being how much better they play defense on the road. While North Texas ranks 76th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing at home, they improve to 58th nationally in that metric when playing on the road. The Mean Green allowed the Monarchs to make 44.2% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last three games. North Texas are sharpshooters — at least when playing at home. They rank 12th nationally with an effective field goal percentage of 59.1% when playing at home. But UNT plummets to 79th nationally when playing away from home with an effective field goal percentage of 51.6%. They only made 38.2% of their shots last night. In their last five games, they are averring only 64.2 PPG while making 43.8% of their shots — a drop off of more than six PPG from their season average where they are making 48.2% of their shots. The Mean Green have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Additionally, North Texas has played 33 of their last 47 games Under the Total after a win on the road by six points or less. And in their last 12 road games after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game, the Mean Green have played 9 of these games Under the Total. North Texas has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Louisiana Tech has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And while last night’s game finished Over the 138 point total, they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. The Bulldogs have also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing their second game in three days. Louisiana Tech ranks 37th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — but they improve to 24th nationally in that metric on the road. But while they rank 91st nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency at home, that mark plummets to 240th when on the road. The Bulldogs have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: Louisiana Tech will be looking to avenge a 57-55 loss to the Mean Green in Denton on February 6th. The Bulldogs have played 5 straight Unders when playing with revenge — and they have played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total when avenging a loss on the road. 25* CBB CBS Sports Network Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the North Texas Mean Green (837) and the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (838). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-11-21 |
North Texas v. Old Dominion UNDER 128 |
Top |
61-55 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the North Texas Mean Green (759) and the Old Dominion Monarchs (760) in the Quarterfinals of the Conference USA tournament. THE SITUATION: North Texas (14-9) defeated Middle Tennessee last night, 76-56, as a 15.5-point favorite in their opening game of this tournament. Old Dominion (15-7) had their four-game winning streak snapped last Saturday in a 60-57 loss at Western Kentucky as a 7-point underdog. The Conference USA tournament is being played at the Ford Center at The Star in Frisco, Texas.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: We had the Mean Green last night with one of the reasons being how much better they play defense on the road. While North Texas ranks 76th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing at home, they improve to 57th nationally in that metric when playing on the road. The Mean Green held the Blue Raiders to just a 34.0% field goal percentage last night. North Texas has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games on the road Under the Total after a win by at least 15 points. And in their last 11 games on the road after not allowing more than 60 points, the Mean Green have played 9 of these games Under the Total. North Texas plays excellent half-court defense. They rank 27th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 46.4% — and by holding their opponents to just 44.9% shooting inside the arc, they rank 21st in the nation. The Mean Green are also sharpshooters — at least when playing at home. They rank 12th nationally with an effective field goal percentage of 59.1% when playing at home. But UNT plummets to 71st nationally when playing away from home with an effective field goal percentage of 52.0%. They made 54.5% of their shots last night which is the best shooting mark in their last four games — yet it is due for regression tonight. North Texas has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better. Old Dominion has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. The Monarchs only made 38.9% of their shots but that continued a disturbing trend for them when playing away from home. Old Dominion ranks 138th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency at home — but they drop to 236th in that metric on the road. But simultaneously, their defense improves when playing away from home where they rank 121st in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency as compared to their 164th ranking when playing at home. And in their last five games, the Monarchs have held their opponents to just 61.6 PPG on 37.8% shooting.
FINAL TAKE: Old Dominion has played 40 of their last 52 games on a neutral court Under the Total — including 10 of their last 11 games in tournament action. They have also played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total on a neutral court as an underdog. North Texas has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when favored — and the Under is 3-1-1 in their last 5 games on a neutral court when favored. 25* CBB Conference USA Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the North Texas Mean Green (759) and the Old Dominion Monarchs (760). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-11-21 |
Niagara v. Marist UNDER 124.5 |
Top |
67-62 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 50 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Niagara Purple Eagles (751) and the Marist Foxes (752) in the Quarterfinals of the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference tournament. THE SITUATION: Niagara (80-10) takes the court again for the first time since February 21st when they had their two-game winning streak snapped at home to Siena by a 66-61 score as a 5-point underdog. Marist (12-8) won their third in a row on March 1st in a 65-52 win against Quinnipiac as a 2-point favorite. The Metro Atlantic tournament is being played at Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Look for the Purple Eagles to be rusty in facing live competition for the first time in almost three weeks. As it is, they have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total when playing with at least seven days of rest between games. They allowed Siena to make 50% of their shots the last time out so tightening up on defense will be a priority. Niagara has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a loss at home — and they have played 16 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a loss to a conference rival including six of those eight situations this season. The Purple Eagles struggle to shoot the basketball away from home. While they rank third in the conference and 166th nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, they fall to sixth in the conference and 280th nationally in that metric when playing on the road. They have an effective field goal percentage of 42.9%, ranking 335th in the nation, when playing in true road games or on neutral courts. And they choose to get back on defense rather than crash the glass — they are 287th in the nation by rebounding only 22.7% of their missed shots on the road. They average only 59.7 PPG away from home with a 37.5% field goal percentage. They do hold teams to just a 42.4% shooting percentage on the road. While ranking 285th nationally in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, that mark does improve to 235th in the nation when playing on the road. Niagara has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court as a pick ‘em or favorite of up to three points. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total with the Total set at 129.5 or lower. And in their last 5 games against tams with a winning record, the Under is 3-1-1. Marist has played 4 of their last 5 games under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Foxes can play some defense — they are 18th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 45.8%, ranking 18th in the nation. They allow 64.4 PPG when playing away from home on 39.7% shooting. Marist has played 4 straight Unders when playing on a neutral court — and they have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total on a neutral court as an underdog. But while the Foxes rank sixth in their conference and 276th nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, they fall to 321st in the nation and tenth in the MAAC in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road. Over their last five games, they are scoring only 59.2 PPG on 39.7% shooting — but they are allowing just 58.2 PPG on 34.6% shooting from the field. Marist has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total with the Total set at 129.5 or lower. They have also played 4 straight games Under the Total as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Niagara won the last meeting between these two teams on January 2nd by an 86-76 score — and Marist has played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total when playing with same-season revenge including three of their four opportunities this season. 25* CBB Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Niagara Purple Eagles (751) and the Marist Foxes (752). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-10-21 |
Spurs +4.5 v. Mavs |
Top |
104-115 |
Loss |
-112 |
3 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 8:35 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the San Antonio Spurs (503) plus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (504). THE SITUATION: San Antonio (18-14) lost two of their last three games going into the All-Star break after a 107-102 upset loss at home to Oklahoma City as a 7-point favorite on March 4th last Thursday. Dallas (18-16) went into the break having won three straight and five of their last six with an 87-78 victory against the Thunder last Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SPURS PLUS THE POINTS: San Antonio should respond with a strong effort tonight as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. The Spurs have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after losing two of their last three games. And head coach Greg Popovich is very tough when his team has at least three days to rest and prepare as San Antonio has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games when playing with at least three days of rest. The extended break allowed for Derrick White, LaMarcus Aldridge and Rudy Gay to all clear their COVID quarantine protocols. This is the first time all season (I believe) that the Spurs are at full health and strength. They are 9-4 on the road with an average winning margin of +3.9 PPG. San Antonio has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Spurs have also covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 road games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in six of these last seven situations. San Antonio has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games as a dog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Dallas played their best defensive game of the season last week by holding the Thunder to just 33.3% shooting. But the Mavericks have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing no more than 85 points in their last game. Dallas has played better over the last few weeks as they got healthier — but consistency has been a problem. The Mavericks have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 29 games at home after a point spread victory in their last game. They have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games at home as a favorite -- and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road.
FINAL TAKE: San Antonio will be looking to avenge a 122-117 loss at home to the Mavericks on January 22nd. The Spurs have covered the point spread in 42 of their last 59 opportunities to avenge a loss where they allowed at least 110 points under Popovich. 25* NBA Southwest Division Game of the Month with the San Antonio Spurs (503) plus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (504). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-10-21 |
Arkansas-Pine Bluff v. Jackson State UNDER 126.5 |
Top |
62-74 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 40 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions (307101) and the Jackson State Tigers (307102) in the Quarterfinals of the Southwest Athletic Conference tournament. THE SITUATION: Arkansas-Pine Bluff (4-20) snapped a twelve-game losing streak last Friday in an 82-59 win at Mississippi Valley State as a 10.5-point favorite. Jackson State (11-5) has won eleven in a row with their 79-54 win against Alabama State as a 13.5-point favorite on Saturday. The SWAC tournament is being played at Bartow Arena in Birmingham, Alabama.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Golden Lions nailed 53.3% of their shots last Friday in what was the best shooting effort in their last 13 games. Yet Arkansas-Pine Bluff is just 333rd in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They rank 345th nationally by making just 41.9% of the shots inside the arc. The Golden Lions have played 9 of their last 11 road games Under the Total after losing three of their last four games. And while their victory on Friday finished Over the 138 point total, they have then played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after playing an Over. Arkansas-Pine Bluff has the top Adjusted Offensive Efficiency in the SWAC while ranking 258th nationally in that metric. But when playing away from home, they plummet to eighth in the SWAC and 331st nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They make only 39.6% of their shots inside the road away from home, ranking 345th while averaging just 58.9 PPG on 37.0% shooting. But, their defensive performances have been better on the road where they rank 8th in the SWAC and 333th nationally in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — not great numbers but better than their 10th ranking in the conference and 343rd mark nationally when at home. The Golden Lions have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court with the total set at 129.5 or lower. They have also played 5 straight games Under the Total against teams winning at least 60% of their games. Jackson State made 54.5% of their shots last Saturday in what was their best shooting performance of the season. The Tigers have played 39 of their last 56 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 21 of their last 28 games Under the Total after a victory against a conference rival. Jackson State has also played 23 of their last 31 games Under the Total after a point spread win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a win by at least 20 points. I was pleasantly surprised to discover upon my deep dive that the Tigers have the second-lowest effective field goal percentage of 43.3% in the nation. They also limit their opponents to just 42.4% shooting inside the arc, ranking fourth in the nation, so it is going to be very difficult for the Golden Lions to score easy baskets. Jackson State has held their last five opponents to just 52.0 PPG on 38.2% shooting — and they have not allowed even 60 points in six straight games. The Golden Lions have played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 60 points in two straight games. But scoring is the problem for this team as they rank 342nd in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They score only 60.1 PPG on the road on 38.5% shooting. They have played 24 of their last 31 games Under the Total as a favorite — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. Jackson State has also played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total on a neutral court.
FINAL TAKE: Jackson State swept the two regular-season games this season — defeating Arkansas-Pine Bluff by a 64-58 score on March 1st after beating them 63-55 on February 1st. The Golden Lions have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing with double-revenge. 25* CBB SWAC Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions (307101) and the Jackson State Tigers (307102). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-10-21 |
Southampton v. Manchester City UNDER 3 |
Top |
2-5 |
Loss |
-111 |
0 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Southampton (200157) and Manchester City (200158). THE SITUATION: Southampton (W9-D6-L12) snapped a nine-game winless streak with a 2-0 win at Sheffield United last Saturday. Man City (W20-D5-L3) saw their 28-game unbeaten streak end on Sunday in a 2-0 loss at home to Manchester United.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Despite scoring the two goals against the Blades, the Saints’ offensive attack has been stagnant this season. They had only scored five goals in their previous nine matches before scoring twice on Saturday. But it was not all good news for manager Ralph Hassenhuttl as his leading scorer, Danny Ings, suffered a muscle injury that will keep him out at least a month and perhaps the rest of the season. Ings leads the team with eight goals. The Southampton attack has overachieved even with their 33 goals in 27 matches. Their expected goals mark (xG) is sixth-worst in the league and their average below 1.0 non-penalty expected goals per game. The Saints have probably deserved better on defense — while they have allowed 44 goals, their expected goals allowed mark (xGA) drops to 38.44 this season. They have surrendered 28 goals in their 14 matches on the road — but their xGA plummets to 23.47. Against this Man City juggernaut, Hassenhuttl will likely keep his team compact in their 4-4-2 system while rarely pushing into their 4-2-2-2 pressing formation. Man City looked out-of-synch against the Red Devils in Sunday’s Manchester Derby. The toll of the COVID season with a crammed fixture schedule may finally be taking its toll on this team that likely has the EPL championship locked up. The Champions League becomes the focus for this team — so here comes Pep Roulette from manager Pep Guardiola regarding resting players. I waited to release this play on the announcement of his starting XI. His lineup lacks a true forward with both Gabriel Jesus and Sergio Aguero on the bench — Phil Foden may be playing the “false nine” spot. Raheem Sterling also is on the bench which leaves a bunch of their firepower on the bench. The mix of midfielders remain talented — but they have not played a ton of minutes together so cohesion is an issue. I am not worried about the stout Man City defense despite them conceding goals in three straight matches. They surrendered a goal to Wolverhampton last week despite posting a tiny xGA of 0.40 in that match. They have still only given up seven goals in their last 17 EPL matches with ten clean sheets. The improved defensive play from the Cityzens has been generated from both an influx of new talented defensive backs and a less-aggressive pressing approach — both of those dynamics will be in play for this match.
FINAL TAKE: Man City won the reverse fixture on December 19th by a 1-0 score. Expect another lower-scoring match. 25* EPL Wednesday NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between Southampton (200157) and Manchester City (200158). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-09-21 |
Mt. St. Mary's v. Bryant UNDER 133.5 |
Top |
73-68 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 33 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers (1017) and the Bryant Bulldogs (1018). THE SITUATION: Mount St. Mary’s (11-10) advanced to the finals of the Northeast Conference Tournament Championship Game with their 66-60 upset win at Wagner as a 4.5-point underdog on Saturday. Bryant (15-5) reached the championship game with an 85-55 win against Sacred Heart as a 6.5-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Mountaineers made 47.8% of their shots on Saturday — but they have just a 42.7% shooting percentage on the road which generates 63.0 PPG. Mount St. Mary’s is much better on the offensive end of the court when playing at home where they rank 237th in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency and fifth in conference action. When playing away from home in true road games (not including neutral courts), their adjusted offensive efficiency plummets to 305th nationally and ninth in Northeast Conference play. Yet the Mountaineers tighten up on defense when playing on an opponent’s home court — they rank 127th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency on the road which is a bit better than their 133rd ranking in that metric when playing at home. The team trends validate this observation. Mount St. Mary’s has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 8 of their last 11 road games Under the Total as an underdog getting 6.5 to 12 points. The Mountaineers have also played 19 of their last 25 road games Under the Total in the 130s. Mount St. Mary’s has also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. They have covered the point spread in their last three games while not allowing more than 65 points in those contests. The Mountaineers have then played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in at least two straight games — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 65 points in three straight games. They hold their conference opponents to 60.9 PPG on 39.3% shooting. Bryant made a season-high 63.6% of their shots on Saturday in the win — but not only have they played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after scoring at least 80 points in their last game but they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring at least 85 points in their last game. The Bulldogs also played their best defensive game of the season in terms of the opponent’s field goal percentage but that is an effort that is more likely to carry over tonight. Bryant has held their last five opponents to just 37.9% shooting which is resulting in just 62.6 PPG — as compared to their 74.9 PPG and 41.0% opponent’s marks for the season. The Bulldogs’ defense has improved but we are still getting value with the number. Bryant has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win by at least 20 points. The Bulldogs have also played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a home win against conference rival — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. They host this game where they rank 124 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency as compared to playing on the road where their adjusted defensive efficiency drops to 196th in the nation. But get this: Bryant’s adjusted offensive efficiency is 159th at home but improves to 99th nationally on the road. This is a team that plays better defense but worse offense on their home court. The team trends bear this out as well. They have played 25 of their last 33 games Under the Total including six of their eight home games this season. They have also played 20 of their last 26 home games Under the Total as a favorite.
FINAL TAKE: I am extra cautious before investing in games from lower-tier conferences — but we have good sample sizes in March (even with COVID cancellations) and the evidence far exceeds my minimum expectations for this situation (after doing the deep dive work as this Report hopefully demonstrates). A final touch: Bryant has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total with the number in the 130s while Mount St. Mary’s has played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total with the over/under in the 130 to 139.5 point range. 25* CBB Northeast Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers (1017) and the Bryant Bulldogs (1018). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-08-21 |
Oral Roberts v. South Dakota State OVER 161.5 |
Top |
90-88 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 33 m |
Show
|
At 6:45 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Oral Roberts Golden Eagles (645) and the South Dakota State Jackrabbits (646). THE SITUATION: Oral Roberts (14-10) has won three in a row after their 76-65 win against North Dakota as a 7.5-point favorite yesterday. South Dakota State (16-6) has also won three in a row with their 84-71 victory against Nebraska-Omaha. This game is being played at Sanford Pentagon in Sioux Falls in a semi-home game for the Jackrabbits given the proximity to their campus.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Golden Eagles made only 44.8% of their shots yesterday which was tied for the lowest field goal percentage in their last four games. Oral Roberts has played 40 of their last 51 games Over the Total after a point spread win. And while that game finished below the 154 point total, they have then played 17 of their last 23 games Over the Total after playing an Under. This is the Golden Eagles’ second game since last Sunday — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total when playing their second game in a week. They are scoring 84.0 PPG in their last five games — and their combined scores in their last five games are +4.1 points above their season average. Additionally, Oral Roberts has played 35 of their last 51 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. They also have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when playing on a neutral court as a dog. South Dakota State made 53.4% of their shots on Saturday which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last four games. They have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a straight-up win. This is the Jackrabbits’ second game since last Saturday — not only have they played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total when playing their second game in three days but they have played 7 straight games Over the Total when playing their second game in three days. They are making 57.1% of their shots over their last five games — but they are allowing their last five opponents to make 47.1% of their shots which is a few notches above their 43.1% defensive field goal percentage. They have scored at least 84 points in their last two games — and they have then played 26 of their last 39 games on the road after scoring at least 80 points in two straight games. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. The Jackrabbits have also played 16 of their last 21 games Over the Total when favored — and they have played 5 of their 7 games Over the Total when favored on a neutral court.
FINAL TAKE: Oral Roberts will be looking to avenge a 95-80 loss to South Dakota State on February 14th — and they have played 13 of their last 21 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss. 25* CBB Summit League Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Oral Roberts Golden Eagles (645) and the South Dakota State Jackrabbits (646). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-08-21 |
Leeds United v. West Ham United -0.25 |
Top |
0-2 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing West Ham (200130) minus the goal-line versus Leeds United (200129). THE SITUATION: West Ham (W13-D6-L7) looks to bounce back from a 2-1 loss at Manchester City last Saturday. Leeds United (W11-D2-L13) comes off a 1-0 loss at home to Aston Villa on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE WEST HAM MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Hammers might have outplayed the best team in the English Premier League last weekend — they posted an expected goals mark (xG) of 1.73 while limiting the Cityzens to just 0.76 expected goals (xGA). West Ham was unbeaten in their previous four matches — and they are W7-D1-L2 in their last ten matches across all competitions. Getting Michail Antonio healthy again and back on the pitch makes a big difference. Antonio leads the EPL in expected goals involvement over the last four matches. The addition of Jesse Lingard has also added prowess to this team in the middle of the pitch. In his five matches since joining the team, West Ham has seen their xG rise from 1.4 to 1.54 per match — and they are now averaging 2.2 Big Chances (representing a scoring chance with at least a 35% chance of success) from their 1.9 make before the arrival of Lingard. West Ham is also tough at home where they have won five of their last six matches — with the lone blemish being a loss to reigning EPL champs, Liverpool. Leeds United is beginning to fade a bit after their unique aggressive style took the league by storm in the fall. The Peacocks have lost three of their last four matches along with seven of their last ten. They are overperforming in goals scored and goals allowed relative to their xG expectations. And while they have 18 points on the road, their expected points (xPTS) fall to 15.08 with them overachieving both goals scored and goals allowed. Leeds has lost their last two matches on the road. They have surrendered the most Big Chances in the league when playing on the road — and they have not had a clean sheet on the road in their last five matches across all competitions.
FINAL TAKE: West Ham won the reverse fixture on the road on December 11th by a 2-1 score. Leeds has seen two of their league matches end in a draw this season — so a winner is likely. The Hammers are in great form and should overwhelm this promoted side. 25* English Premier League Monday Match of the Month with the West Ham (200130) minus the goal-line versus Leeds United (200129). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-07-21 |
Drexel -4.5 v. College of Charleston |
Top |
80-75 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Drexel Dragons (757) minus the points versus the College of Charleston Cougars (758) in the Quarterfinals of the Colonial Athletic Association tournament. THE SITUATION: Drexel (9-7) looks to build off the momentum of their 84-78 upset win at James Madison as a 1.5-point underdog back on February 26th. Charleston (9-9) takes to the court again for the first time since February 20th when they defeated Columbus State in a non-boarded game, 86-83. This game is being played at the Atlantic Union Bank Center in Harrisburg, Virginia.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DUKES MINUS THE POINTS: Drexel should be comfortable playing on this court with it being the home of James Madison who they just defeated in this building. While the Dragons made 49.1% of their shots in that game, that was the worst shooting effort in their last three games. Drexel has the top Adjusted Offensive Efficiency in the CAA — and they rank 28th in the nation by making 54.6% of their shots inside the arc. Defense travels — but so does making shots closer to the basket. The Dragons are a more effective team when playing on the road. While they rank 141st in Adjusted Net Efficiency, they fall to 192nd nationally when playing on their home court. But when Drexel is playing on neutral courts or the opposing team’s court, they rise to 123rd nationally in Adjusted Net Efficiency. The Dragons have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games played on a neutral court. They also have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games when favored. Drexel also allowed the Dukes to make 50.9% of their shots in their last game which was the worst defensive effort in their last seven contests — so they should play better on that end of the court. Charleston has won four of their last five games — but they are likely to be rusty having not played in more than two weeks. As it is, they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing with more than seven days between games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win at home where they scored at least 85 points, so any potential momentum is likely a moot point. COVID has it the Colonial Athletic Association hard would plenty of games canceled — that is why the team added their glorified scrimmage with Columbus State. The most recent Division One opponent they have faced was Elon back on February 14th — and they were upset by 11 points as an 8-point favorite. Incredibly, this is just their third game away from home in conference action this season. The Cougars rank 215th nationally in Adjusted Net Efficiency but fall to 231st in that metric when playing away from home. They are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games played on a neutral court — and they are 5-13-1 ATS in their last 19 games on a neutral court as an underdog. Expectations were pretty high for this season entering the season — but they lost their best player, Brevin Galloway, to a season-ending leg injury in December. Charleston has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: The cherry on top for this situation is that Drexel will be motivated by double-revenge. They lost twice on the road to the Cougars this season in early-January by a combined six points with the last meeting being on January 10th in a 73-68 upset loss as a 2-point favorite. The Dragons have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing with revenge — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when avenging a loss on the road. 25* CBB Colonial Athletic Association Game of the Year with the Drexel Dragons (757) minus the points versus the College of Charleston Cougars (758). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-06-21 |
Old Dominion v. Western Kentucky -7 |
Top |
57-60 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 5:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (650) minus the points versus the Old Dominion Monarchs (649). THE SITUATION: Western Kentucky (17-6) had their two-game winning streak snapped last night in a 71-69 upset loss to the Monarchs as a 7-point favorite. Old Dominion (15-6) has won four games in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HILLTOPPERS MINUS THE POINTS: Western Kentucky made only 39.6% of their shots last night in what was the worst shooting effort in their last ten games. But they have rebounded to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 38 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games after a loss to a conference rival. Additionally, Western Kentucky has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after a narrow loss by 6 points or less — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after an upset loss as a home favorite. They should play better in this one — they are still averaging a 48.3% field goal percentage along with an opponent’s field goal mark of 40.9% in their last five games even after last night. They dropped to 10-2 at home but they are outscoring their visitors by +10.7 PPG. The Hilltoppers have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. They also have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as a favorite. Old Dominion has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 road games after an upset win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after an upset win against a Conference USA foe where they were an underdog getting at least 6 points. Despite pulling the upset on the road last night, the Monarchs are not as good on the road as they are at home. Old Dominion ranks 156th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency — and they improve to 139th when playing on their home court. But the Monarchs fall to 189th in the nation when playing on the road. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games as an underdog — and they are just 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 road games against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games at home. Furthermore, Old Dominion is 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games against teams with a winning record — and they are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Western Kentucky has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when avenging a same-season loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing with revenge from a narrow loss by three points or less. 25* CBB Conference USA Game of the Year with the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (650) minus the points versus the Old Dominion Monarchs (649). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-06-21 |
Leicester v. Brighton & Hove Albion |
Top |
2-1 |
Loss |
-112 |
3 h 40 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Brighton and Hove Albion (200098) with the goal-line versus Leicester City (200097). THE SITUATION: Brighton and Hove Albion (W5-D11-L10) has lost two in a row after their 1-0 loss at West Bromwich Albion last Saturday. Leicester City (W15-D5-L7) comes off a 1-1 draw at Burnley on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE BRIGHTON WITH THE GOAL-LINE: Brighton is a prime example of a team dramatically underperforming in respect to the analytics projections. In terms of the expected goals metric (xG), the Seagulls are the fifth-best team in the English Premier League. In practice, they are only three points safe from relegation. Brighton dominated West Brom by a 3.28-0.73 xG but lost by a 1-0 score. Missing two penalty kicks did not help. That setback came on the heels of them losing 2-1 to Crystal Palace despite dominating the xG battle by a 3.03-0.27 margin. I have written extensively about Brighton — and, to be fair, one of the reasons why they are underachieving their expected goals mark is because they lack elite goal-scorers. But they are also unlucky — especially on defense. Manager Graham Potter’s tactics are putting his team in a position to win matches consistently. This may make them a precarious favorite — but they remain very dangerous as they proved earlier this year when they upset Liverpool. When playing at home in Amex Stadium, the Seagulls have the second-best expected points (xPTS) despite only 10 points and one victory. They lead the EPL in Big Chances (representing a scoring chance with a 35% or better success rate based on league averages) and in expected goals allowed (xGA). They allow only 4.76 shots inside the box which is the second-fewest in the league. Sooner or later, the Regression Gods will arrive for this team. Creating scoring opportunities and limiting your opponent’s scoring chances is the foundation for success. Leicester City is not in good form right now with two losses and a draw in their last three matches. When the Foxes are at full strength, they have a legitimate claim in being one of the top four teams in the league. But because they cannot afford to pay for a bunch of good players, their roster depth is not in the same class as the elite programs. Their attack suffers when their trio of Jamie Vardy, Harvey Barnes, and James Maddison are not playing together — and both Barnes and Maddison are out with injuries. Leicester City is also without Jonny Evans, Wes Morgan, and Ayoze Perez. These losses are devastating. Despite their 1-1 draw midweek, they lost the xG battle to the Cherries by a 1.75-1.23 xG margin. The Foxes have been outperforming the metrics all season on both ends of the pitch. While they are currently third in the EPL standings, they fall to sixth (and behind Brighton) in xPTS. Recent losses to Arsenal and Slavia Prague in the Europa League are not encouraging regarding how this team will proceed given all their injuries.
FINAL TAKE: Leicester City won the reverse fixture by a 3-0 score before defeating the Seagulls in the FA Cup on February 10th by a 1-0 score. The Foxes have more injuries now. A victory now earns Brighton some revenge and three crucial points to avoid relegation. 25* English Premier League Match of the Month with the Brighton and Hove Albion (200098) with the goal-line versus Leicester City (200097). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-06-21 |
Indiana State v. Loyola-Chicago UNDER 122 |
Top |
49-65 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 1:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Indiana State Sycamores (689) and the Loyola-Illinois Ramblers (690) in the Semifinals of the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Indiana State (15-9) advanced to the Semifinals of the MVC tournament yesterday with their 53-43 win against Evansville as a 6.5-point favorite. Loyola-Illinois (22-4) won their fourth in a row yesterday with a 73-49 win against Southern Illinois as a 17-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Ramblers scored more than 65 points for the first time since February 13th yesterday — it had been five straight games since they had topped that threshold. They made 47.4% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last five games. But Loyola-Illinois is still making only 41.1% of their shots over their last five games which is generating just 60.4 PPG over that span. They have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Additionally, the Ramblers have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a win by at least 20 points — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after not allowing more than 50 points in their last game. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing their second game in three days on the road. Loyola is an elite defensive team that has the best Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing away from home in true road games or on neutral courts — they are allowing 57.3 PPG on 40.1% shooting in those 13 games. They have not allowed more than 58 points in 16 straight games — and they have then played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 65 points in three straight games. The Ramblers have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams winning at least 60% of their games — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as a favorite. Indiana State made 40.4% of their shots yesterday which was the best shooting mark in their last three games. The Sycamores have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Additionally, Indiana State has played 7 straight games Under the Total after not allowing more than 60 points — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing with no more than one day between games. They have held their last five opponents to 59.8 PPG. The Sycamores are 71st in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they improve to 63rd when playing away from home. But while they rank 187th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, they fall to 217th in their true road games or games played on a neutral court. Indiana State has played 14 of their last 16 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Both these teams play at a slow pace — the Sycamores average 68.1 possessions-per-game away from home while the Ramblers average 65.8 possessions (319th nationally) away from home. The local Noon PM ET tip won’t help the shooting. And while Indiana State will be looking to avenge a 58-48 loss at home to Loyola on January 11th, they have then played 7 straight games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a same-season loss. 25* CBB Missouri Valley Conference Tournament Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Indiana State Sycamores (689) and the Loyola-Illinois Ramblers (690). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-05-21 |
Wild -145 v. Coyotes |
Top |
5-1 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 9:08 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Minnesota Wild (65) versus the Arizona Coyotes (66). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (12-7-1) looks to bounce back from a 5-1 loss in Vegas on Wednesday. Arizona (10-9-3) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 3-2 win in Los Angeles on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WILD WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Minnesota had been riding a six-game winning streak when they headed to Las Vegas to begin the week. The Wild had a late 4-2 lead against the Golden Knights before surrendering two late goals and then losing in overtime. That result was marred by Zach Parise staying on the ice too long trying to help a Marcus Foligno register a hat trick on the Vegas open net — but that gesture backfired with Alex Tuch scoring the tying goal with just 42 seconds left in the game. The loss then on Wednesday was closer than the final score indicated — but the Wild now need a win to get back to their winning ways. Minnesota has won 6 of their last 7 games after a loss by at least three goals — and they have won 8 of their last 9 games after a loss by at least four goals. The Wild have also won 9 of their last 11 games after not scoring more than two goals in their last game. And while this is Minnesota’s third game on the road this week, they have won 4 straight games when playing their third game in five days on the road. The Wild have won 13 of their last 19 road games after losing two in a row. Minnesota confirmed around 2:30 PM ET that they will Kaap Kahkonen will be between the pipes with his 2.41 Goals-Against-Average and .915 save percentage this season. Kahkonen enjoyed a great February with a 1.95 Goals-Against-Average with a .927 save percentage in six starts. Kahkonen is also very good on the road — he has a 1.85 GAA and .932 save percentage in six starts on the road. Arizona has lost 16 of their last 22 games after a win — and they have lost 16 of their last 19 games after a narrow win by one goal. Additionally, the Coyotes have lost 8 of their last 9 home games after a win on the road — and they have lost 5 straight home games after a win by just one goal on the road. They have also lost 6 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than two goals in their last game. They return home where they are just 6-9 this season — and they have lost 9 of their last 12 home games with the Total set at 5.5. Arizona has also lost 4 of their last 5 home games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: The Coyotes have lost 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record — and the Wild have won 4 of their last 5 road games when favored. 25* NHL West Division Game of the Month with the money-line on the Minnesota Wild (65) versus the Arizona Coyotes (66). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-05-21 |
Ball State v. Toledo -9 |
Top |
70-89 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 18 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Toledo Rockets (828) minus the points versus the Ball State Cardinals (827). THE SITUATION: Toledo (19-7) looks to bounce back from an 81-79 upset loss at Central Michigan as a 17-point favorite on Tuesday. Ball State (10-11) won their third straight game on Tuesday with their 100-65 blowout win against Eastern Michigan as an 8-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ROCKETS MINUS THE POINTS: Toledo made only 43.9% of their shots against the Chippewas which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last four games. They also allowed Central Michigan to make 47.9% of their shots which was the highest opponent field goal percentage in their last four contests. The Rockets have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. They return home where they are 11-1 with an average winning margin of +15.7 PPG. They make 48.0% of their shots at home which is generating 82.4 PPG. They also hold their guests to just 40.4% shooting. Toledo has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight home games against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or less on the road. The Rockets are 16th in the nation by making 38.4% of their 3-pointers. The Cardinals are one of the best teams defending the perimeter as they rank 29th nationally by holding their opponents to just 30.3% shooting from behind the arc. But they are vulnerable against teams that attack the glass — they allow their opponents to pull down 33.2% of their missed shots, 305th nationally. Toledo is third in the MAC by rebounding 31.5% of their misses when playing at home. The Rockets have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games when favored. Ball State held the Eagles to just 36.7% shooting on Tuesday in what was the best defensive effort in their last five games. But the Cardinals have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a double-digit win against a conference rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by at least 30 points against a conference foe. Ball State has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread victory. The Cardinals have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games on the road after winning at least two in a row. Now they go back on the road for the first time since January 30th (not a typo) — they have played seven straight games at home. Ball State has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 road games after playing at least three straight games at home. They are just 3-7 on the road while making only 42.9% of their shots for 69.7 PPG — those numbers are a far cry from the 52.1% shooting they enjoyed on Tuesday on their home court. The Cardinals play their best basketball at home. They rank 141st in Adjusted Net Efficiency — they climb to 125th when playing at home. But Ball State falls to 194th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing on the road. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games as an underdog. The Cardinals have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Ball State has failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games against a team with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games with the Total set in the 150s.
FINAL TAKE: Ball State upset Toledo in their previous meeting on February 6th in an 81-67 victory as a 9-point underdog. The Rockets made only 7 of 32 shots from behind the arc — but they make 38.7% of their 3-pointers at home. 25* CBB Mid-American Conference Game of the Year with the Toledo Rockets (828) minus the points versus the Ball State Cardinals (827). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-04-21 |
Texas v. Oklahoma -2 |
Top |
69-65 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Oklahoma Sooners (750) minus the points versus the Texas Longhorns (749). THE SITUATION: Oklahoma (14-8) has lost three in a row after their 79-75 upset loss at Oklahoma State as a 2.5-point favorite on Monday. Texas (15-7) has won four of their last six games after their 81-67 win at Iowa State as a 12.5-point favorite on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SOONERS MINUS THE POINTS: Oklahoma lost their third straight close game on Monday — their three losses were by a combined 13 points. The Regression Gods should be making a visit to Norman soon. They allowed the Cowboys to make 52.9% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last 19 games. The Sooners have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after an upset loss. Oklahoma has also covered the point spread in 29 of their last 42 home games after losing two in a row against Big 12 foes. And while this is the Sooners’ third game since Saturday, they have covered the point spread in 29 of their last 44 home games when playing their third game in seven or fewer days. Oklahoma does return home where they are 10-2 with an average winning margin of +15.1 PPG scoring average. The Sooners hold their visitors to 39.2% shooting — and they are scoring a healthy 80.2 PPG at home. While they rank 28th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency, they improve to 16th in that metric when evaluating how teams play on their home court. Oklahoma has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 home games with the Total set in the 140s. Furthermore, the Sooners have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. And in their last 9 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher, Oklahoma has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games. Texas made 51% of their shots on Tuesday against the Cyclones which was the best shooting effort in their last three games. Yet the Longhorns have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread victory. Additionally, Texas has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a double-digit victory — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by 10 or more points on the road. Furthermore, the Longhorns have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after winning two of their last three games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after winning four or five of their last six games after winning four or five of their last six. Texas has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games with the Total set in the 140s. And in their last 8 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%, the Longhorns are just 1-6-1 ATS.
FINAL TAKE: Oklahoma won the first meeting between these two teams on January 26th by an 80-70score with the Longhorns undermanned given COVID issues at the time. But Texas has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when attempting to avenge a same-season loss. 25* CBB Thursday ESPN Game of the Year with the Oklahoma Sooners (750) minus the points versus the Texas Longhorns (749). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-04-21 |
Pistons v. Knicks -6.5 |
Top |
104-114 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 7:35 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the New York Knicks (564) minus the points versus the Detroit Pistons (563). THE SITUATION: New York (18-18) saw their three-game winning streak end on Tuesday in their 119-93 upset loss at San Antonio as a 1.5-point favorite. Detroit (10-25) snapped a three-game losing streak last night with their 129-105 upset victory at Toronto as a 7.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE KNICKS MINUS THE POINTS: Don’t read too much into the Pistons victory against the Raptors last night — Toronto could barely field a roster given their recent COVID outbreak. The Raptors were missing Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet, and O.G. Agunoby amongst five players along with head coach Nick Nurse. A Detroit team consisting of reserves made 52.7% of their shots in what was the second-best shooting effort in their last seven games. Head coach Dwane Casey deserves credit for getting every ounce of effort and energy out of the roster he has been left with. But a letdown is likely after last night — especially with the team in New York (even in a pandemic) on the final night before the All-Star Game weekend break. As it is, Detroit is just 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they are 1-6-1 ATS in the last 8 games after a double-digit victory. The Pistons have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 125 points in their last game. Detroit entered the year with one of the worst starting fives in the NBA — and most of those guys are not available tonight. Jerami Grant has been their best player and leads the team with a 23.4 PPG average — but he is questionable with a quad (and why play him before the break). Derrick Rose was the team’s second-leading scorer — but he was traded to these Knicks. Josh Jackson is the third-leading scorer with a 13.5 PPG clip — and he is out with an illness that kept him out of last night’s game. The fourth-leading scorer, Blake Griffin, is not playing as he awaits being traded to another team that will become disappointed with his effort. Deion Wright, the team’s fifth-leading scorer with a 10.7 PPG mark, is out with a groin. Killian Hayes and Jahlil Okafor are both out with injuries. The Pistons lineup tonight will feature Wayne Ellington, Mason Plumlee, and Dennis Smith. As it is, this is a team that is 4-15 on the road while allowing their home hosts to score 114.6 PPG on 49.0% shooting. The Pistons have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as an underdog. New York only made 40.7% of their shots on Tuesday in what was the worst shooting effort in their last four games. But the Knicks have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a loss on the road. New York has also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. Julius Randle only scored 14 points on 6 of 16 shooting which was his lowest scoring output since February 9th. Randle is scoring 23.1 PPG and pulling down 10.9 Rebounds-Per-Game in his breakout season. This team is playing surprisingly well for first-year head coach Tom Thibodeau. It all starts on defense for Thibs with the Knicks leading the league by allowing only 104.4 PPG — and their play on that end of the court is legit as they rank second in the NBA in Defensive Rating. Overall, New York is a respectable 14th in the league in Net Rating. They have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games after winning two of their last three games. Now after playing their last two games on the road, they return home for their only home game before March 18th again. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home in Madison Square Garden — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after playing their last two on the road. New York has also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 home games against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or less on the road. The Knicks have some missing players with Elfrid Payton and Taj Gibson out — but they should get Derrick Rose back after he was held out of Tuesday’s game because of an inconclusive COVID test. Rose has injected some needed-offense into the team — he has averaged 16.3 PPG in his three previous games on 52.8% shooting and a 62.3% mark from behind the arc. Over their last five games, the Knicks are scoring 111.7 PPG on 47.7% shooting. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games with the Total set in the 200 to 209.5 range. New York has also covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a losing record — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when favored.
FINAL TAKE: Motivation is also a concern on the last night before the All-Star Game break. The Knicks should be motivated to redeem themselves (especially Randle) from their loss on Tuesday — and a win tonight ensures a record above .500 going into the break. Detroit may want to avenge their 109-90 loss at home to New York on February 28th — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 39 of their last 63 games when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season. 25* NBA Pre-All Star Break Game of the Year with the New York Knicks (564) minus the points versus the Detroit Pistons (563). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-03-21 |
Maryland v. Northwestern UNDER 131.5 |
Top |
55-60 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Maryland Terrapins (691) and the Northwestern Wildcats (692). THE SITUATION: Maryland (15-10) has won five games in a row with their 73-55 win against Michigan State as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday. Northwestern (7-14) snapped a 13-game losing streak last Thursday with a 67-59 upset win at Minnesota as a 5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Terrapins made 48.8% of their shots against Sparty which was the best shooting effort in their last four games. Maryland has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win against a Big Ten foe. The final score finished below the 134 total — and the Terrapins have played 29 of their last 43 games Under the Total after playing their last game Under the Total. This is Maryland’s second game since February 21st — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total when playing their second game in eight or more days. Head coach Mark Turgeon has his team sacrifice offense rebounds of getting back on defense — they rank 323rd in the nation by pulling down only 21.5% of their missed shots. The Terrapins have rebounded only three and six boards in each of their last two games — and they have then played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after not rebounding more than nine offensive rebounds in two straight games. Maryland now goes back on the road where they have striking home/road splits. When playing at home, the Terrapins rank 15th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and 95th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. But when playing on the road, Maryland sees their Adjusted Offensive Efficiency plumes to 104th in the nation — but their Adjusted Defensive Efficiency skyrockets to 15th best nationally. The Terrapins have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total on the road. Turgeon has his team playing great defense — they have the sixth-best Adjusted Defensive Efficiency over their last ten games. In their last five games, Maryland has held these opponents to 58.8 PPG on 35.9% shooting. The Terrapins have played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or less — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total with the number in the 130s. Northwestern has played 17 of their last 24 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 22 of their last 29 games Under the Total after an upset win as a road underdog. The Wildcats have also played 31 of their last 44 games Under the Total after a win on the road. Furthermore, Northwestern has played 26 of their last 35 games Under the Total after a win on the road against a conference rival — and they have played 27 of their last 39 home games Under the Total after beating a Big Ten foe. They return home where they hold their opponents to just 40.6% shooting. But while the Wildcats rank 88th nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, they drop to 157th nationally when playing at home. The Under is 15-5-1 in Northwestern’s last 21 home games against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or less on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 6 points. The Wildcats only made 42.2% of their shots in their upset win over the Gophers — but that was the best shooting effort in their last four games. Northwestern is scoring only 62.0 PPG in their last five games on 40.1% shooting which is far below their 71.5 PPG and 43.7% marks for the season. The Wildcats have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage in the 60-80% range.
FINAL TAKE: Northwestern has played 4 straight Unders as an underdog — and Maryland has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when favored. 25* CBB Big Ten Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Maryland Terrapins (691) and the Northwestern Wildcats (692). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-03-21 |
Bulls +6 v. Pelicans |
Top |
128-124 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 50 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Chicago Bulls (537) plus the points versus the New Orleans Pelicans (538). THE SITUATION: Chicago (15-18) has lost two in a row after their 118-112 loss to Denver as a 4.5-point underdog on Monday. New Orleans (15-19) has won three of their last five games with their 129-124 upset victory at home against Utah on Monday as a 6.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLS PLUS THE POINTS: Chicago played the Nuggets as they rallied from being down 15 points to take a six-point lead with eight minutes but let the game slip away. The Bulls did not play particularly well — they only made 44.7% of their shots which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last five games. They also allowed Denver to nail 52.9% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal mark in their last eight contests. This team continues to improve under first-year head coach Billy Donovan while Zach Lavigne continues to grow into being a legitimate star in this league. Chicago is still making 53.3% of their shots over their last five games — and their opponent’s field goal percentage of 46.0% during that span is improved over their 47.5% mark for the season. They should bounce-back to play well tonight — they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss while also covering the point spread in 18 of their last 23 games after a narrow loss by six points or less. The Bulls have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. And while they have allowed their last two opponents to make at least 50% of their shots, they have then covered the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing two straight opponents to make 50% or more of their shots. This is Chicago’s sixth straight games against a Western Conference opponent — but not only have they covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games on the road after playing a Western Conference foe in their previous game but they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 12 road games after playing at least two straight non-conference games. They have been capable road warriors this season with an 8-7 mark away from home with an averaging winning margin of +3.0 PPG while shooting 49.0% of their shots. The Bulls have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 road games with the total set at 220 or higher. Furthermore, Chicago has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 road games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games against teams with a losing record. New Orleans is a prime candidate for an emotional letdown after upsetting the hottest team in the league in the Jazz. They made 56.5% of their shots on Monday which was the best shooting effort in their last seven games — and they played their best defensive game in their last eleven by holding Utah to 45.5% shooting. As it is, the Pelicans have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after an upset win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win by six points or less. New Orleans has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread win. Not only are the Pelicans consistently inconsistent (good for us) but they tend to not do well when they get comfortable in playing high-scoring games. They have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after scoring at least 115 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 125 points in their last game. Additionally, New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after a game where at least 235 combined points were scored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a game where at least 245 combined points were scored. They stay at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games when favored by six points or less. The Pelicans have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Defense remains a problem of head coach Stan Van Gundy’s team as they have allowed their last five opponents to score 120.6 PPG on 47.9% shooting. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: Chicago nailed a franchise-record 25 shots from behind the arc in a 129-116 win at home against New Orleans on February 10th. The Pelicans will want revenge — but the Bulls have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games played in the Big Easy. 25* NBA Pre-All Star Break Underdog of the Year with the Chicago Bulls (537) plus the points versus the New Orleans Pelicans (538). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-02-21 |
Suns +2 v. Lakers |
Top |
114-104 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 10:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Phoenix Suns (527) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (528). THE SITUATION: Phoenix (22-11) has won two straight games as well as five of their last six contests after their 118-99 win at Minnesota on Sunday as a 10-point favorite. Los Angeles (24-11) won their second-straight game on Sunday with their 117-91 win against Golden State as a 2.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SUNS PLUS THE POINTS: Phoenix cruised against the Timberwolves despite shooting 49.4% from the field which sounds good — but it was actually the lowest field goal percentage in their last seven games (maybe costing us the Over that night!). The Suns are averaging a 50.8% shooting percentage in their last five games which is generating 121.0 PPG. They should build off their momentum tonight with the opportunity to knock off the reigning NBA champions. Phoenix has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after a double-digit win — and they have covered the point spread in 11 straight games on the road after a win by 10 or more points. The Suns have scored at least 106 points in 11 straight games — and they have then covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after scoring at least 105 points in at least five straight games. They also have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 18 games after scoring at least 115 points in their last contest. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after winning two of their last three — and they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 32 games on the road after covering the point spread in their last two games. And while this is their third game on the road since Thursday, they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games when playing their third game in five days on the road. Phoenix has an 11-5 record on the road (versus their 11-6 record at home) — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight road games as an underdog. Los Angeles hit rock bottom last week when they were crushed on the road in Utah in a fourth straight loss. The champs picked themselves off the mat with two straight wins. Getting Dennis Schroder back from quarantine has helped. Yet consistency and focus remain an issue for this team even when they have had Anthony Davis healthy. The Lakers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win at home. Los Angeles raced out to a 73-44 halftime lead against the Warriors on Sunday but they have failed to cover the point spread in 28 of their last 40 games at home after owning a halftime lead of at least 20 points in their last game. The Lakers have also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of the last 15 home games after a win by at least 10 points at home in their last game. Additionally, LA has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after covering the point spread in two straight games. The Lakers have not played great at home in the Staples Center without fans as they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their 18 home games this season.
FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against a team winning at least 60% of their games — and Phoenix has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better. 25* NBA Pre-All Star Break Pacific Division Game of the Year with the Phoenix Suns (527) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (528). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-02-21 |
Wisc-Milwaukee v. Wright State OVER 151 |
Top |
94-92 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Wisconsin-Milwaukee Phoenix (653) and the Wright State Raiders (654) in the Quarterfinals of the Horizon League tournament. THE SITUATION: Wisconsin-Milwaukee (9-11) snapped a five-game losing streak last Thursday in the opening round of the Horizon League tournament with their 84-72 win against IUPUI as a 4-point favorite. Wright State (18-5) plays for the first time since February 20th when they won at Northern Kentucky, 77-71, as a 9-point favorite. The Raiders host this tournament game.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Phoenix have played eight straight Overs after their win in the Horizon League tournament last week — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after playing at least two straight Overs. Wisconsin-Milwaukee has also played 4 straight games Over the Total after a point spread victory. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after scoring at least 80 points in their last game. The Phoenix are playing definitively better on offense. While they rank 200th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency this season, they climb to 144th nationally when assessing their performance in their last ten games. They are scoring 83.4 PPG over their last five contests which is +8.3 PPG above their season average. But they are also allowing 85.6 PPG in these last five games which are +9.9 PPG above their season defensive average. They go on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total — and they have played 8 of their last 10 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. Wisconsin-Milwaukee has also played 7 of their last 10 road games Over the Total as a double-digit underdog. Wright State has played 26 of their last 42 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 20 of their last 30 games Over the Total after winning four of their last five games. And while they have not covered the point spread in their last four games, they have then played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total after not covering the point spread in at least two straight. I did have initial concerns about the Raiders’ long layoff — but they probably will not shoot worse than the 43.5% clip they managed against the Norse in their last game which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last ten games. Wright State may be cold in the first half — but don’t give up on the Over until this one is over! The Raiders will get plenty of second-chance scoring opportunities tonight as they pull down 34.3% of their missed shots which is the 25th best mark in the nation. This is a great shooting team — they make 37.2% of their 3-pointers, 35th nationally, and 53.8% of their shots inside the arc, 45th nationally — and playing on their familiar home court without a full house should help them get back into rhythm. I am playing more Overs this season without fans in the stands — and they are playing a Phoenix team that ranks 321st in the nation by allowing their opponents to make 37.8% of their 3-pointers. Let’s trust the Horizon League’s second-most efficient offense to figure it out — and they will have fresh legs. Wright State has played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total with the number in the 150s — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total as a double-digit favorite. Defense has been a concern as of late — they are allowing 74.4 PPG on 45.0% shooting in their last five games which is well above the 66.3 PPG and 40.0% they allow for the season.
FINAL TAKE: Wisconsin-Milwaukee will be looking to avenge a 92-82 loss at Wright State on February 13th — and they have played 6 straight games Over the Total when playing with same-season revenge. The Phoenix has also played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a loss where they allowed at least 80 points. 25* CBB Horizon League Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Wisconsin-Milwaukee Phoenix (653) and the Wright State Raiders (654). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-01-21 |
Oklahoma +1 v. Oklahoma State |
Top |
75-79 |
Loss |
-113 |
7 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Oklahoma Sooners (845) minus the point(s) versus the Oklahoma State Cowboys (846). THE SITUATION: Oklahoma (14-7) lost their second-straight game on Saturday in a 94-90 loss in overtime at home to the Cowboys. Oklahoma State (16-6) has won four games in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SOONERS MINUS THE POINT(S): Oklahoma should bounce-back with a strong effort as they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after an upset loss. Additionally, the Sooners have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after losing two in a row. Oklahoma travels to Stillwater for this rematch — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. The Sooners are a defense-first team that ranks 39th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and 19th in opponent’s field goal percentage inside the arc. They are led by senior point guard Austin Reaves who leads the team in scoring, rebounds, and assists. Oklahoma has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. They also have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 31 games with the total set in the 140s. And in their last 20 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range, the Sooners have covered the point spread in 14 of these contests. Oklahoma State may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after an upset win — and they have failed to cover the point spread 13 of their last 20 games after an upset victory against a Big 12 rival as an underdog getting at least 6 points. Additionally, the Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after scoring at least 90 points in their last game. Furthermore, Oklahoma State has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 home games after winning at least two in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight home games after winning at least three in a row. The quick turnaround will not help either as the Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games when playing with one day or less of rest. Oklahoma State is overvalued when playing at home. They rank 32nd in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency — but while they are 34th nationally on the road, they plummet to 51st nationally when playing at home in Stillwater. The Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a losing record on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 home games as an underdog getting up to 3 points.
FINAL TAKE: Oklahoma has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing with revenge — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when avenging an upset loss as a home favorite. 25* CBB Big Monday ESPN Game of the Month with the Oklahoma Sooners (845) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Oklahoma State Cowboys (846). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-01-21 |
Nuggets v. Bulls OVER 225 |
Top |
118-112 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (509) and the Chicago Bulls (510). THE SITUATION: Denver (18-15) has won two of their last three games with their 126-96 win at Oklahoma City as a 6.5-point favorite on Saturday. Chicago (15-17) had their three game winning streak snapped on Friday in a 106-97 loss at home to Phoenix as 6.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Nuggets played their best game on defense in their last eight contests by holding the Thunder to just 42.0% shooting from the field. They are still allowing their home hosts to make 48.2% of their baskets which is resulting in 111.6 PPG. But Jamal Murray has been finding some of the form he enjoyed in the bubble when he led Denver to the Western Conference Finals. He scored 26 points on Saturday — and he is averaging 30.1 PPG in his last nine games. The Nuggets have played 6 of their last 8 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Denver has also played 19 of their last 26 games Over the Total when playing with one day of rest. The Nuggets have also played 21 of their last 31 games Over the Total after scoring at least 120 points in their last game. Denver is scoring 116.4 PPG over their last five games on 49.6% shooting. They have scored at least 110 points in six straight games — and they have played 13 of their last 17 games Over the Total after scoring at least 105 points in five straight games. They stay on the road where they have played 13 of their last 18 games Over the Total — and they have played 15 of their last 18 road games Over the Total against teams with a losing record at home. The Nuggets have played 8 of their last 10 road games Over the Total with the number at 220 or higher. And in their last 11 games against teams with a losing record, Denver has played 9 of these games Over the Total. Chicago shot 49.4% from the field on Friday in what was the lowest field goal percentage in their last four games. Over their last five contests, the Bulls are making 52.7% of their shots which is generating 115.4 PPG in first-year head coach Billy Donovan’s up-tempo offense. The Bulls have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a loss at home. They stay at home where they are allowing their guests to score 114.8 PPG on 48.1% shooting. Chicago has played 7 of their last 10 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have played 7 of their last 10 home games Over the Total as an underdog. Additionally, the Bulls have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 11 of their last 17 games Over the Total against Western Conference foes.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 19 of their last 26 meetings Over the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games played in Chicago Over the Total. 25* NBA Pre-All Star Break Non-Conference Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (509) and the Chicago Bulls (510). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-28-21 |
Suns v. Wolves OVER 224.5 |
Top |
118-99 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (577) and the Minnesota Timberwolves (578). THE SITUATION: Phoenix (21-11) has won four of their last five games with their 106-97 win at Chicago as a 6.5-point favorite on Friday. Minnesota (7-27) has lost seven games in a row with their 128-112 loss at Washington as a 4-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Suns made 50% of their shots on Friday yet it was the lowest shooting percentage in their last six games. This Phoenix offense is clicking — they are averaging 123.8 PPG over their last five contests on 52.5% shooting. The Suns have played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total after making at least 50% of their shots in two straight games. Phoenix has also played 4 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Suns have played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after winning five or six of their last seven games. And in their last 21 games after playing at least two in a row against Eastern Conference opponents, Phoenix has played 17 of these games Over the Total. This is the Suns’ sixth game since February 19th — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total when playing their sixth or more game in a ten-day span. Minnesota has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 15 of their last 19 games Over the Total after a loss by at least 15 points. The Timberwolves have also played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after allowing at least 125 points in their last game. New head coach Chris Finch will likely want to address the play of his defense but he lacks short-term fixes. The T-Wolves have allowed their last five opponents to score 117.8 PPG on 47.0% shooting. Playing without a day off certainly will not help — and Minnesota has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when playing the second game in back-to-back days. After being on the road for four straight games, they return home for the first time since February 19th — and the Over is 5-1-1 in their last 7 home games after being on the road for at least seven days. The Timberwolves have also played 27 of their last 40 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 7 of their last 10 games in Minnesota Over the Total. Phoenix should approach 120 points in this one which should carry the final score into the high 220s (or more). 25* NBA Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (577) and the Minnesota Timberwolves (578). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-28-21 |
Lafayette -3 v. Lehigh |
Top |
71-70 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 45 m |
Show
|
At 6:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Lafayette Leopards (1511) minus the points versus the Lehigh Mountain Hawks (1512). THE SITUATION: Lafayette (8-5) has won three of their last four games with their 75-69 win at home against the Mountain Hawks yesterday. Lehigh (4-9) has now lost four of their last five games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE LEOPARDS MINUS THE POINTS: Lafayette should build off their momentum from yesterday as they are 22-10-1 ATS in their last 33 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games after a win against a Patriot League foe. The Leopards have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when playing with one day or less of rest. They now go on the road where the metrics say they play better. Lafayette ranks 234rd nationally in Adjusted Net Efficiency — but while they are 236th when at home, they climb to 217th when on the road. The Leopards are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 road games with the number in the 140s. Additionally, Lafayette has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games against teams with a losing record at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games as a favorite. The Leopards have the second-best Adjusted Offensive Efficiency numbers in the Patriot League — and they lead the conference by nailing 37.5% of their 3-pointers on the road. Lehigh has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a loss on the road to a conference rival. The Mountain Lions have also failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 26 games when playing day or less of rest. Lehigh is 1-4 at home where they are getting outscored by -13.0 PPG — and they have retained more value as a road underdog yesterday. The Mountains Lions are 306th in Adjusted Net Efficiency — but they are even worse at home with a 337th ranking as compared to their 268th rating when playing on the road. Lehigh has failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight home games — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight home games as an underdog. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 home games with the Total set in the 145 to 149.5 point range. This is not a good basketball team — they rank 10th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and 8th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in the Patriot League. They have allowed their last five opponents to make 48.4% of their shots while making only 37.3% of their shots over that span. The Mountain Lions have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Lehigh has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 opportunities to avenge a loss. The Mountain Lions beat the Leopards on January 2nd but have since lost the next two meetings this season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games when motivated by double-revenge. 25* CBB Patriot League Game of the Month with the Lafayette Leopards (1511) minus the points versus the Lehigh Mountain Hawks (1512). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-28-21 |
North Dakota State v. South Dakota OVER 136.5 |
Top |
89-77 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 4:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the North Dakota State Bison (811) and the South Dakota Coyotes (812). THE SITUATION: North Dakota State (12-11) has lost three of their last four games after their 80-71 loss at South Dakota yesterday. South Dakota (13-9) has now won two games in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bison only made 40.9% of their shots yesterday in what was the worst shooting effort in their last four games. They did nail 10 shots from behind the arc after making 11 shots from 3-point range in their previous game against South Dakota State — and they have played 16 of their last 22 games Over the Total after making at least 10 shots from 3-point range in two straight contests. They should shoot better this afternoon playing in the same gym for the second-straight day. As it is, they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total when playing with one day of rest. They have also played 4 straight games Over the Total on the road against teams with a winning record at home. Furthermore, North Dakota State has played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total as a favorite of up to 3 points — and they have played 10 of their last 11 road games Over the Total when priced in the +/- 3-point range. The Bison have also played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. South Dakota has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and the Over is 3-1-1 in their last 5 games after a point spread victory. The Coyotes’ 47.2% shooting percentage was their lowest in three games — so they should shoot as well or better. But holding the Bison to 40.9% shooting was the best defensive effort in their last five contests. South Dakota has now played 4 straight games Over the Total on their home court — and they have played 5 of their last 6 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage at 40% or less on the road. The Coyotes average 83.0 PPG on their home court on 52.0% shooting. But their defense is faltering as they have allowed their last five opponents to make 46.3% of their shots which is generating 82.8 PPG. South Dakota has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: North Dakota State has played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total when avenging a loss on the road. 25* CBB Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the North Dakota State Bison (811) and the South Dakota Coyotes (812). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-27-21 |
CS-Northridge +10 v. CS Bakersfield |
Top |
90-87 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 55 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the CS-Northridge Matadors (771) plus the points versus the CS-Bakersfield Roadrunners (772). THE SITUATION: CS-Northridge (8-10) has lost three of their last four games after their 84-58 loss at CS-Bakersfield last night as an 8-point underdog. CS-Bakersfield (15-9) snapped a two-game losing streak with the victory.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MATADORS PLUS THE POINTS: Just a bad night for CS-Northridge as they made only 39.0% of their shots — and they allowed the Roadrunners to shoot 54.1% from the field in what was the worst defensive effort in their last eight games. But head coach Mike Gottfried’s team has rebounded to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by at least 20 points. The Matadors usually are competitive against good teams as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. CS-Northridge is also 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 road games against teams who win at least 60% of their games at home. Additionally, the Matadors have covered the point spread 12 of their last 17 road games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 road games as a dog getting 6.5 to 12 points. CS-Bakersfield had their best shooting effort in ten games with their 54.5% clip last night. They also enjoyed the best defensive effort in their last ten games by holding the Matadors to 39.0% shooting. They raced out to a 47-22 halftime lead — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after holding a halftime lead of at least 20 points. Additionally, the Roadrunners have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a win by at least 20 points. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 home games after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game. CS-Bakersfield remains just 8-18-1 ATS in their last 27 games at home — and they are only 7-15-1 ATS in their last 23 home games when favored. The Roadrunners are just 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 games against teams with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: CS-Northridge has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 road games when avenging a loss by at least 20 points. Last night was an outlier — the Matadors will play better and we are getting two more points of value from last night’s point spread. 25* CBB Big West Underdog of the Year with the CS-Northridge Matadors (771) plus the points versus the CS-Bakersfield Roadrunners (772). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-27-21 |
Pelicans v. Spurs +2.5 |
Top |
114-117 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the San Antonio Spurs (552) plus the points versus the New Orleans Pelicans (551). THE SITUATION: San Antonio (16-12) saw their two-game winning streak snapped on Wednesday in a 102-99 upset loss at home against Oklahoma State as a 1-point favorite. New Orleans (14-18) had their two-game winning streak end on Thursday in a 129-125 loss at Milwaukee as an 8-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SPURS PLUS THE POINTS: San Antonio had not played February 14th when they took the court on Wednesday — and they had a handful of players still out due to COVID quarantine protocols including DeMar DeRozan. The Spurs still have Dejounte Murray, Patty Mills, Lonnie Walker IV leading the way — and no one gets more out of every player on the roster than head coach Gregg Popovich. When I received the news that DeRozan was upgraded to probable for tonight’s game, I signed off. DeRozan is having an incredible season, albeit under the radar. He is scoring 19.8 PPG while adding 5.0 Rebounds-Per-Game and 6.9 Assists-Per-Game. He is also playing every position but center while being able to guard effectively at all four positions. His flexibility allows the Spurs to play several different lineups to maximize match-up edges. This is a solid basketball team that plays hard every night — and they remain as well-coached from night-to-night as any team in the league. Against Stan Van Gundy? Mismatch (what does someone have to do to stop getting NBA head coaching jobs? Mark Jackson knows the answer to that). San Antonio will play well tonight as they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when playing with two days of rest. They return home to the AT&T Center for the first time since February 9th after their regular February exodus due to the San Antonio rodeo (PPD this year). The Spurs have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 home games as an underdog. Additionally, San Antonio has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 35 of their last 53 games after a loss on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a loss by 6 points or less. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 125 points in their last game. The Pelicans remain a disaster on defense under the guidance of defensive wizardry of Van Gundy and his 1996 principles being deployed in his first season in the Big Easy. New Orleans is second-to-last in the league in their Defensive Rating. And while it may be tempting to give Van Gundy a pass given the lack of a typical preseason, the Pelicans have allowed their last five opponents to make 51.0% of their shots for 124.0 PPG. The Pelicans have now played ten straight Overs — but this style of play is not helping this team. Not only has New Orleans failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total but they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after playing at least two straight Overs. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games when playing with one day of rest. They stay on the road where they are 5-11 — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 4 road games against teams with a losing record at home. They also allow their home hosts to make 48.5% of their shots which is generating 116.5 PPG for the home teams. Furthermore, the Pelicans have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when favored. J.J. Redick is doubtful tonight with a hamstring.
FINAL TAKE: New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against the Spurs. The lone exception during that stretch was a 98-95 win at home against San Antonio as a 4.5-point favorite on December 27th. The Spurs have covered the point spread in 44 of their last 59 games when avenging a loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games when playing with revenge from a loss by three points or less. 25* NBA Pre-All Star Break Southwest Division Underdog of the Year with the San Antonio Spurs (552) plus the points versus the New Orleans Pelicans (551). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-27-21 |
Portland State +2 v. Northern Colorado |
Top |
73-65 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 2:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Portland State Pilots (643) plus the points versus the Northern Colorado Bears (644). THE SITUATION: Portland State (8-10) had their four-game winning streak snapped on Thursday in a 66-64 loss at Northern Colorado in a pick ‘em matchup. Northern Colorado (10-8) has won two in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PILOTS PLUS THE POINTS: Portland State made only 32.8% of their shots on Thursday in the worst shooting effort in their last 14 games. They should shoot better this afternoon being more familiar with the gym. As it is, the Pilots have covered the point spread 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a straight-up loss on the road to a conference foe. They have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, head coach Barret Peery’s team has been very good playing on short rest. They have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 24 games when playing with one day or less of rest including six straight games under those circumstances. Portland State has also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games when playing their second game on the road in three days. Peery has his team do the little things to create more scoring opportunities — so they should be in good shape in this rematch if they can approach making 40% of their shots. The Pilots lead the Big Sky by pulling down 32.5% of their missed shots. They also lead the conference in forcing turnovers in 25.7% of their opponent’s possessions — and the Bears are 8th in the Big Sky by turning the ball over in 19.1% of their possessions. Portland State may be just 1-6 on the road but they are losing these games by an average of -1.5 PPG. They hold their home hosts to just 42.8% shooting. The Pilots are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 road games — and they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 road games as an underdog. Northern Colorado played their best defensive game of the season by holding the Pilots to 32.8% shooting. This is the Bears’ third game since Monday — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 home games when playing their third home game in seven days. They rank 237th in Adjusted Net Efficiency by the deeper metrics — but they fall to 255th in the Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing at home. Northern Colorado has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games with the Total in the 130s. The Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a losing record on the road — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight home games when favored. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when favored overall.
FINAL TAKE: Portland State has covered the point spread in 21 of their last 26 games when playing with revenge including five of these last seven situations. They also have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 18 games when avenging a loss on the road. 25* CBB Big Sky Underdog of the Year with the Portland State Pilots (643) plus the points versus the Northern Colorado Bears (644). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-26-21 |
Clippers -6.5 v. Grizzlies |
Top |
119-99 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 49 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Clippers (539) minus the points versus the Memphis Grizzlies (540). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (23-11) has lost two of three after their 122-94 upset loss at Memphis as an 8-point favorite last night. Memphis (14-14) snapped a two-game losing streak with the win.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CLIPPERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Grizzlies are getting healthy again with Brandon Clarke, Grayson Allen, and Justise Winslow back on the court and in the regular rotation. Ja Morant has missed eight games this season as well with an ankle injury. The team displayed their potential last night in a game where they were winning by 30 points at one point. Yet this effort was an outlier. The Grizzlies held the Clippers to 40.5% shooting in what was the best defensive performance of their season. They also made 54.3% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last 13 games. But Memphis has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a double-digit victory. The Grizzlies host this rematch where they have still failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as a home underdog. Killian Tillie is listed as questionable tonight with a foot injury. And in Memphis’ last 8 games as an underdog, the Grizzlies have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of these games. Los Angeles should play better on defense tonight after Memphis had the best field goal percentage in them in 12 games. The Clippers also had the worst shooting percentage on offense in their last 16 games. Yet LA is still ranked third in the NBA in Offensive Efficiency under first-year head coach Tyron Lue. Kawhi Leonard and Paul George combined to make only two of their nine shots from 3-point land. Leonard has been his typical excellent self this season — but it is George who has stepped up his game amidst off-season criticism to score 24.8 PPG while nailing 48.1% of his 3-pointers so far this year. The Clippers should step up with a strong effort tonight. They have covered the point spread in 40 of their last 56 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 35 games after a point spread loss. Los Angeles has also covered the points spread in 19 of their last 28 games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 27 of their last 37 games after a loss on the road. Additionally, the Clippers have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after a loss by at least 10 points. LA has been very good on the road with an 11-5 record and an average winning margin of +6.6 PPG. They are making 48.4% of their shots away from home which is generating 114.5 PPG. The Clippers have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 44 of their last 65 road games when favored.
FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games on the road when avenging a same-season loss. 25* NBA Game of the Month with the Los Angeles Clippers (539) minus the points versus the Memphis Grizzlies (540). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-26-21 |
Coastal Carolina v. Troy State UNDER 139.5 |
Top |
75-59 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (847) and the Troy Trojans (848). THE SITUATION: Coastal Carolina (13-6) snapped a three-game losing streak on Sunday in a 65-55 win against Georgia Southern as a 6-point favorite. Troy (10-14) has lost five in a row after their 65-53 loss at Georgia State as a 10-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chanticleers have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win. Coastal Carolina has played six straight Unders — and not only have they played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after playing an Under in their last game but they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing at least two straight Unders in a row. The Chanticleers have the second-best defense in the Sun Belt in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They have held their last five opponents to just 63.8 PPG on 37.1% shooting from the field — as compared to their 67.0 PPG and 39.2% opponent’s offensive marks for the season. They go back on the road where they are making only 40.8% of their shots. Coastal Carolina has played 5 straight games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 4 straight road games Under the Total when favored. Additionally, the Chanticleers have played 5 straight Unders when favored — and the Under is 5-1-1 in their last 7 games when playing a team with a losing record. Troy has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And while the Trojans have not covered the point spread in two straight games, they have then played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after not covering the point spread in their last two games. Troy has also played 18 of their last 27 games Under the Total when playing their second game in seven days. They return home where they have the second-best Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in Sun Belt play. They hold their guests to 36.7% on their home court which is resulting in only 59.7 PPG. The Trojans only hit 41.6% of their shots at home. Troy has played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. The Trojans can struggle to score — they are averaging only 60.8 PPG on 39.7% shooting in their last five games. Troy has played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games.
FINAL TAKE: Troy will be playing with revenge from a 70-65 loss at Coastal Carolina on January 23rd as a 10-point underdog. The Trojans have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when avenging a same-season loss. Troy also lost the January 22nd meeting between these two teams — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when motivated by double-revenge. 25* CBB Sun Belt Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (847) and the Troy Trojans (848). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-25-21 |
Western Kentucky v. Houston UNDER 137.5 |
Top |
57-81 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (749) and the Houston Cougars (750). THE SITUATION: Western Kentucky (15-4) has won six games in a row after their 89-66 win against Rice as a 9.5-point favorite back on February 13th. Houston (18-3) has won three of their last four games with their 90-52 victory against Cincinnati as a 12.5-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Hilltoppers made 56.5% of their shots against the Owls after shooting 50.9% from the field in their previous game at home against Rice. Western Kentucky has played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after making at least 50% of their shots in two straight games — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after scoring at least 80 points in their last game. Additionally, the Hilltoppers have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a win at home — and they have played 6 straight Unders after winning two in a row on their home court. Western Kentucky has also played 10 of their last 12 games on the road Under the Total after two wins in a row against conference opponents — and they have played 17 of their last 24 games on the road Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total (146.5 versus Rice 2/13). The Hilltoppers may be rusty on offense with the almost-two-week layoff. As it is, they have only scored 64.6 PPG on 38.4% shooting in their last five games which is almost 5.0 PPG below their season average. And while they rank 103rd nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency at home, they fall to 149th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing on the road. But their defense travels — Western Kentucky ranks 57th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency compared to their 132nd ranking when playing at home. They hold their home hosts to 41.8% shooting. The Hilltoppers have played 22 of their last 33 games Under the Total on the road — including seven of their last nine games. They also have played 5 straight road games Under the Total as an underdog. Houston has played 11 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a win at home by at least 20 points — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after scoring at least 80 points in their last game. The Cougars also held the Bearcats to just 30.0% shooting. Head coach Kelvin Sampson has one of the best defensive teams in the nation. Houston ranks 4th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency while leading the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 42.2%. The Cougars have the second-best Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in the nation when playing at home where they limit their opponents to just 34.1% shooting and 54.2 PPG. Houston has played 14 of their last 20 home games Under the Total — and the Under is 38-14-1 in the last 52 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Under is also 16-5-1 in the Cougars’ last 22 home games against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Houston has played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games — and Western Kentucky has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. 25* CBB Thursday ESPN2 Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (749) and the Houston Cougars (750). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-24-21 |
Manchester City -1 v. Borussia Monchengladbach |
Top |
2-0 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Manchester City (224225) minus the goal-line versus Borussia Monchengladbach (224226). THE SITUATION: Man City is the best team in the world right now riding an 18-match winning streak across all competitions after their 1-0 win at Arsenal on Sunday. Borussia Monchengladbach is struggling after a 2-1 loss to Mainz on Saturday. This match will be played on a neutral field in Hungary given COVID restrictions in Germany right now.
REASONS TO TAKE MAN CITY MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Cityzens are cruising with 13 straight wins in the English Premier League which the metrics rank as the top professional league in Europe right now. Man City is demolishing their English competition with 32 goals scored and just three conceded during their 13 EPL matches since their last loss on November 21st to Tottenham. Manager Pep Guardiola had to change tactics out of necessity given some injuries to their attackers to pull-in the reins a bit in his aggressive pressing tactics. This decision is wise in hindsight given the increased work-load for the players in the condensed schedule due to COVID. Not being as aggressive has helped protect their backline — but the organization also made a number of great transfers to fortify their defense. The combination of Ruben Dias and John Stones in the middle of their backline has been extraordinary — they are allowing just 0.52 expected goals allowed (xGA) when playing together. Man City has allowed just two goals in their last ten EPL matches — and they have only allowed three of their last 14 opponents in the EPL to generate at least 1.0 expected goals (xG). The Cityzens have 18 clean sheets in their last 25 matches across all competitions. And in their six Champions League Group Stage matches, Man City had five clean sheets — and their six opponents combined for a mere 1.6 xG. In the EPL, Man City has a +32.79 net expected goals differential — and the next closest team in that metric is Chelsea’s whose +15.73 net xG differential is less than half their number. And they are getting healthier with midfielder Kevin DeBruyne healthy back on the pitch over the weekend. Borussia Monchengladbach is winless in their last four matches in the Bundesliga — and they have lost two in a row at home against Mainz and Cologne who are both in the bottom-five in the league. Die Foals has taken a slide since manager Marco Rose announced he would be leaving the team for Borussia Dortmund in the offseason. They are just eight the German top flight this season expected goal net differential. The scoring is down for this team with Alassane Pea and Marcus Thuram only contributing three goals and one assist apiece after combining for 20 goals and 18 assists last season. After averaging 2.16 xG last season, Borussia Monchengladbach has fallen to averaging just 1.53 xG this year. And in their last four matches, Die Foals are managing just 0.69 xG per contest.
FINAL TAKE: Not being able to play the first leg at home really hurts this team — they have won three of their last ten matches away from home. These Champions League neutral site matches give a big edge to the road team since their goals still contribute to the “away goals” first tie-breaker if there is a tie in net goals after the second leg. Guardiola has plenty of incentives to run up the score against a Borussia Monchengladbach who has to travel for this match. 25* UEFA Champions League Round of 16 Favorite of the Month with Manchester City (224225) minus the goal-line versus Borussia Monchengladbach (224226). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-23-21 |
Celtics +3 v. Mavs |
Top |
107-110 |
Push |
0 |
3 h 55 m |
Show
|
At 7:35 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (571) minus (or plus) the Dallas Mavericks (572). THE SITUATION: Boston (15-15) looks to rebound from a 120-115 upset loss in overtime at New Orleans as a 2-point favorite on Sunday. Dallas (14-15) won their fifth game in their last six last night with their 102-92 win against Memphis as a 4.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS MINUS (OR PLUS) THE POINTS: Boston blew a 24-point lead on Sunday against the Pelicans. The Celtics made only 39.8% of their shots in what was the lowest shooting effort in their last four games. Boston should pick themselves up off the mat after that embarrassing result on national television. The Celtics have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. Boston has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset loss on the road as a favorite. Head coach Brad Stevens’ team is struggling — but this group has been rarely been at full strength due to injuries. Marcus Smart is out with a calf injury but the group’s Big Three of Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and Kemba Walker will be on the court together for this game which has not been the case for many of their games this season. Consistency has been a problem — and the Celtics need help on their frontline. But Tatum and Brown are rising superstars in this league who are only 22 and 24-years old — the vision for general manager Danny Ainge is that this team will be elite for years with two of the top-ten players in the game over the next several years. Boston has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 road games after a narrow loss by 6 points or less. And in their last 5 games with the Total set at 235 or higher, they have covered the point spread in 4 of these contests. Dallas held the Grizzlies to just 39.4% shooting last night which was the best defensive effort in their last 19 games. The Mavericks are struggling at that end of the court — they rank 24th in Defensive Rating this season. They had not played since Valentine’s Day before last night — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games when playing without rest. Dallas has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Mavericks have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a double-digit win over a Southwest Division rival. They stay at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 30 home games after a win. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games on their home court — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. The Mavs have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 home games with the Total set at 220 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: Dallas was an overnight favorite but moved to the underdog with the news that Kristaps Porzingis is questionable with his knee. Even if Porzingis plays tonight, I like the Celtics — but his absence certainly helps. Boston has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 meetings with the Mavericks — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 trips to Dallas to face them. 25* NBA Pre-All Star Break Tuesday TNT Game of the Year with the Boston Celtics (571) minus (or plus) the Dallas Mavericks (572). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-22-21 |
Syracuse v. Duke OVER 148 |
Top |
71-85 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Syracuse Orange (857) and the Duke Blue Devils (858). THE SITUATION: Syracuse (13-6) has won three in a row with their 75-67 win against Notre Dame as a 1.5-point favorite on Saturday. Duke (10-8) has won three in a row as well with their 66-65 upset win against Virginia as a 3-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Orange only made 43.5% of their shots against the Fighting Irish but still rallied from a 20-point deficit to win that game. Syracuse has then played 9 of their last 11 road games Over the Total after a win. They also have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total when playing with one day of rest. Head coach Jim Boeheim’s team does not fit his typical profile — they are much better on offense than they are on defense. The Orange ranks 38th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they rank 29th nationally in this metric when playing on the road. Yet Syracuse is only 84th nationally in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they plummet to 186th in the nation in this metric when playing away from home. Boeheim’s 2-3 zone is not working this season — and it remains as vulnerable as ever to offensive rebounding with the open space around the rim it leaves vulnerable. Not only do the Orange allow their opponents to pull down 31.1% of their missed shots, 279th nationally, but home teams are getting second-chance scoring opportunities in a whopping 37.5% of their missed shots which is 340th in the nation. Syracuse has played 15 of their last 18 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 6 straight road games Over the Total as an underdog of up to six points. They are allowing 78.0 PPG when playing on the road. And while the Orange have played three straight Unders, the Orange have played 6 straight games Over the Total after playing at least two straight Unders. Additionally, Syracuse has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 14 of their last 18 games Over the Total as an underdog. Duke has played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 12 straight home games Over the Total after a win against an ACC rival. They have also played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a point spread win. The Blue Devils shot 51.0% from the field against the Cavaliers’ pack-line defense which was actually the worst shooting effort in their last five games. Duke is averaging 79.0 PPG over their last five games on 52.5% shooting over that span — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after making at least 50% of their shots in three straight games. While the Blue Devils have been pilloried for being one of the blue blood programs suffering a down season, they have under the radar regarding how good they are on offense. They rank 14th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they have improved to 10th in the nation in that metric over their last ten games to demonstrate they do not miss freshman Jalen Johnson who left the team. But Duke struggles on the end of the court as they rank just 135th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing at home. The Over is 19-6-1 in the Blue Devils’ last 26 home games including eight of their last ten home games finishing Over the Total. Duke has also played 7 straight games Over the Total at home against teams who are not winning at least 40% of their games on the road. The Blue Devils pound the offensive glass as well to take advantage of their missed shots against the Boeheim 2-3 zone — they rebound 33.6% of their missed shots at home, 67th nationally. Duke has played 18 of their last 26 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better — and they have played 31 of their last 43 games Over the Total as a favorite.
FINAL TAKE: The Blue Devils have played 13 of their last 19 home games Over the Total with the number in the 140s — and the Orange has played 10 of their last 13 road games Over the Total with the number in the 140 to 149.5 point range. 25* CBB Big Monday ESPN Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Syracuse Orange (857) and the Duke Blue Devils (858). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-22-21 |
Crystal Palace v. Brighton & Hove Albion -0.5 |
Top |
2-1 |
Loss |
-135 |
0 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Brighton and Hove Albion (200046) minus the goal-line versus Crystal Palace (200045). THE SITUATION: Brighton (W5-D11-L8) is unbeaten in their last six English Premier League matches after their 0-0 draw at home to Aston Villa back on February 13th. Crystal Palace (W8-D5-L11) has lost four of their last six EPL matches after their 3-0 loss to Burnley on two Saturdays ago.
REASONS TO TAKE BRIGHTON MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Seagulls have been the analytics darlings all season despite little results to show for it. While their 26 points this season places them in relegation danger in 16th place in the EPL table, their 38.78 expected points (xPTS) using the expected goals (xG) metric is sixth-best in the league. With recent wins against traditional Big Six sides in Liverpool and Tottenham, manager Graham Potter’s side is finally seeing the results the underlying metrics have called for. It starts with their strong defensive play — Brighton has now registered five clean sheets in their last six matches. Potter’s decision to replace keeper Matt Ryan with Robert Sanchez whose ability to make quality saves (and not make mistakes) has played a big role in their recent clean sheet run. The Seagulls have only won once in their 12 home games at Amex Stadium but the metrics suggest they are tough to beat on their home pitch. While Brighton only has 10 points, they have 25.75 xPTS at home which is the second-most in the EPL. They have scored only 11 goals at home — but their xG is 23.42. And while they have allowed only 15 goals at home, their expected goals allowed (xGA) actually drops to 10.30. Crystal Palace has been blanked in two straight matches while generating little action in front of the opposing net. They managed only 0.63 xG in their loss to Burnley after generating just 0.44 xG in their 2-0 loss to Leeds United in their previous match. Manager Roy Holgorsen misses his best attacker, Wilfried Zaha, who remains out with an injury. They have not scored this season without Zaha being on the pitch. Furthermore, not only has Crystal Palace lost of their last 20 matches when playing without Zaha but they have won just once while scoring only six goals in their last 13 matches in the EPL without Zaha — and they generated just 15.5 xG in those 13 games. The Eagles are in 14th place in the table — but they fall to 17th place in xPTS. Crystal Palace is W4-D2-L6 on the road for 14 points — but their xPTS drop to 13.52 on the road.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams played to a 1-1 draw in the reverse fixture at Palace on October 18th. The Eagles had Zaha for that match with the Seagulls still struggling on the pitch to meet their deeper analytics expectations. Brighton needs the three points to get clear from relegation — and they are the vastly superior side. 25* EPL Monday NBC Sports Network Match of the Month with the Brighton and Hove Albion (200046) minus the goal-line versus Crystal Palace (200045). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-21-21 |
Jets v. Canucks UNDER 6 |
Top |
4-3 |
Loss |
-100 |
2 h 27 m |
Show
|
At 10:08 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Winnipeg Jets (33) and the Vancouver Canucks (34). THE SITUATION: Winnipeg (10-6-1) has won two of their last three games after there shutout win in Vancouver against the Canucks on Friday. Vancouver (8-12-1) lost their second game in their last three contests.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Jets got a shutout from backup goalie, Laurent Brossoit, who stopped 29 shots. Winnipeg has played 12 of their last 15 games on the road Under the Total after a shutout win. Additionally, the Jets have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a win — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total on the road after a win by more than one goal. 2020 Vezina Trophy winner Connor Hellebuyck returns to the ice tonight after getting Friday off. He has a 2.56 Goals-Against-Average with a .921 save percentage in seven starts this month. Winnipeg has allowed only 2.2 Goals-Per-Game in their last five contests. They have played 4 of their last 5 games on the road Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total with the number at 6 or higher. The Under is also 4-0-1 in the Jets’ last 5 games against teams with a losing record. Vancouver has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not allowing more than two goals in their last game. The Canucks have also played 3 of their 4 games this season Under the Total after not scoring more than one goal — and they have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after playing an Under in their last game. Vancouver is scoring only 2.4 Goals-Per-Game in their last five contests — but they have only allowed 2.2 Goals-Per-Game over that stretch while limiting their opponents to just 27.8 shots-per-game which is 4.2 shots fewer than their season average. The Canucks will turn back to Braden Holtby tonight who has struggled in his move to the Canadien west coast after his long tenure in Washington. He did come off a promising outing in his last game where they stopped 35 of 36 shots in a win at Calgary. Vancouver has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total on home ice. The Under is also 4-0-1 in the Canucks’ last 5 games against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: Vancouver struggles to get their offense going against Winnipeg — they are averaging only 1.47 Goals-Per-Game in their last 17 games against the Jets while getting shutout five times. These two teams have played 5 straight Unders after Friday — and the Canucks have played 3 of their 4 games this season Under the Total when avenging a loss where they did not score more than one goal. 25* NHL Bailout Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Winnipeg Jets (33) and the Vancouver Canucks (34). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-21-21 |
Newcastle United v. Manchester United UNDER 3.25 |
Top |
1-3 |
Loss |
-119 |
1 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 2:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Newcastle United (200081) and Manchester United (200082). THE SITUATION: Newcastle (W7-D4-L13) lost their seventh match in their last nine on Monday in a 2-0 setback at Chelsea. Manchester United (W13-D7-L4) come off a disappointing 1-1 draw at West Bromwich Albion.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Newcastle only registered 0.71 expected goals against the Blues to begin the week. That effort came on the heels of them scoring three times against the Saints in their previous despite registering a mere 0.79 expected goals (xG) in that match. The Magpies have scored the fifth-fewest goals in the EPL with their xG also ranking fourth-worst amongst the twenty clubs in the top flight. Manager Steve Bruce will be without his top scorer once again for this match with Callum Wilson still out with a hamstring injury. Wilson leads the team with 10 goals with the second-leading scorer for the team only registering four goals. Wilson averages 0.56 xG per 90 minutes — and he accounts for 53% of the expected goals for Newcastle this season either from goals or assists. He has been involved in 15 of the team’s 25 goals. His absence will likely compel Bruce to have his team play even more cautiously. On the plus side, the Magpies have only allowed more than two goals just once in their last twelve matches. Man United has only won once in their last five EPL matches. They registered a mere 0.61 xG against a suspect West Brom team with a leaky defense. The Red Devils have scored 50 goals this season — but their xG plummets to just 42.08 which suggests the team has been rather fortunate in the goal-scoring department. At home at Old Trafford, Man United has 25 goals but just 22.50 xG. Man United did score four times in their 4-0 win against Real Sociedad in the Europa League — but fatigue and rotation may play a role in this match on the short turnaround. The Red Devils tend to have their best scoring games when playing a team that plays on their front foot. But when they play a cautious defensive-minded club, Man United tends to struggle to score goals. They have been consistent defensively — they have held their last six opponents in the EPL to just 0.92 xG.
FINAL TAKE: Newcastle has been blanked in seven of their last eight matches on the road. They lost at home to Man United in the reverse fixture in October by a 4-1 score. Bruce would be thrilled with a draw in this match — expect a very conservative approach from the Magpies. 25* EPL Sunday Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Newcastle United (200081) and Manchester United (200082). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-20-21 |
Maple Leafs -108 v. Canadiens |
Top |
5-3 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 7:08 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Toronto Maple Leafs (7) versus the Montreal Canadiens (8). THE SITUATION: Toronto (13-3-2) has won two in a row with their 7-3 win against Ottawa on Thursday. Montreal (9-4-2) takes the ice for the first time since last Saturday when they defeated these Maple Leafs by a 2-1 score.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MAPLE LEAFS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: I hate this situation for the Canadiens. They have been able to bask in the glow of their triumph against Toronto for an entire week while getting rusty with the six-days off from competition. Expect a slow start for this Montreal team that has lost 5 of their last 7 games when playing with at least three days of rest. The Canadiens have also lost 6 of their last 8 games after a win at home by one goal against a divisional foe. Montreal has not been great at home this season without the support of their fans. They have lost 7 of their last 10 games on their home ice. And while the Canadiens and Maple Leafs appear to be the two best teams in the reconfigured North Division, I don’t buy the Montreal is at the same level as this loaded Toronto team. Led by Auston Matthews who has taken his game to another level this year with a league-leading 16 goals, the Maple Leafs are averaging 29.4 shots-per-game while converting on a scorching 32.7% of their Power Play chances — and Montreal has lost 19 of their last 28 home games against opponents who average at least 29.5 shots-per-game and converting on the Power Play at least 17% of the time. Toronto has won 4 of their last 5 games after a win — and they have won 5 of their last 7 games after a win over a divisional rival. They have also won a decisive 42 of their last 59 games after scoring at least five goals in their last game. The Maple Leafs have also won 4 of their last 5 games when playing their third game in four days. The Leafs have been good road warriors who have won 5 of their last 6 away from home — and they have won 4 of their last 5 road games when priced as a favorite. Toronto has also won 5 of their last 7 road games with the Total at 6 or higher. This is a good team that beat 8 of their last 9 opponents with winning records — and they have won 9 of their last 12 games when favored.
FINAL TAKE: The Maple Leafs have been waiting all week for Saturday night to avenge last week’s loss — they have won 6 of their last 7 games when playing with revenge from an upset loss. Toronto has also won 20 of their last 27 games when avenging a loss where they only scored one goal. 25* NHL North Division Game of the Month with the money-line on the Toronto Maple Leafs (7) versus the Montreal Canadiens (8). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-20-21 |
West Virginia v. Texas OVER 145.5 |
Top |
84-82 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the West Virginia Mountaineers (653) and the Texas Longhorns (654). THE SITUATION: West Virginia (14-6) had their three-game winning streak snapped last Saturday in their 91-90 upset loss in double-overtime against Oklahoma as a 4-point favorite. Texas (13-5) has won two games in a row after their 70-55 win against TCU as an 11.5-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Mountaineers made only 42.4% of their shots on Saturday which was the lowest shooting mark in their last four games. West Virginia has played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a game at home where both teams scored at least 85 points. The Mountaineers have played six straight Overs while scoring at least 82 points in three straight games. They have then played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after scoring at least 75 points in three straight games — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after playing at least three straight Overs. West Virginia has also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total when playing their second game in the last eight days. The Mountaineers tend to play higher-scoring games because they generate additional scoring opportunities. They are 10th in the nation by rebounding 36.2% of their missed shots. They are also 30th nationally by forcing turnovers in 21.9% of their opponent’s possessions when playing on the road. West Virginia has played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 6 straight road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. In their last five games, the Mountaineers are scoring 83.8 PPG. But they have also allowed their last five opponents to make 45.4% of their shots which is generating 79.6 PPG. West Virginia ranks 9th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency which would make them one of head coach Bob Huggins’ best offensive teams in his career. But he has had many better teams on the defensive end of the court — this group ranks only 64th nationally in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Mountaineers have played 5 straight games Over the Total as an underdog — and the Over is 15-5-1 in their last 21 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. They have also played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total with the number in the 140s. Texas has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a win by at least 15 points — and they have played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 55 points in their last contest. The Longhorns are an excellent defensive team who ranks 26th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. But COVID pauses and now ice storms and power outages may be taking their toll on Shaka Smart’s team. While they hold their opponents to 67.6 PPG on 40.5% shooting, their last five opponents have made 44.6% of their shots which is generating 74.0 PPG. Texas has played 6 of their last 7 home games Over the Total — and they have played 11 of their last 16 home games Over the Total when favored by up to 6 points. The Longhorns have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total when favored — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%.
FINAL TAKE: Texas won the first meeting between these two teams on January 9th when they upset West Virginia in Morgantown by a 1.5-point underdog. The Mountaineers have played 6 straight games Over the Total when avenging an upset loss as a home favorite. 25* CBB ABC-TV Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the West Virginia Mountaineers (653) and the Texas Longhorns (654). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-19-21 |
Bulls v. 76ers OVER 227.5 |
Top |
105-112 |
Loss |
-104 |
3 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 7:35 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Bulls (525) and the Philadelphia 76ers (526). THE SITUATION: Chicago (12-15) won their third game in their last four contests on Wednesday with their 105-102 win against Detroit as a 3-point favorite. Philadelphia (19-10) snapped a three-game losing streak on Wednesday with their 118-113 win against Houston as an 8.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: It was fourth straight games for the Bulls where they scored at least 105 points — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after scoring at least 105 points in at least three straight games. Chicago is seeing an average of 230 combined points scored in their games this season under first-year head coach Billy Donovan. They go back on the road where they are scoring 118.7 PPG on 49.2% shooting. They are also allowing their home hosts score 116.2 PPG on 46.6% shooting. The Bulls have played 7 of their last 9 games on the road Over the Total — and they have played 10 of their last 13 road games Over the Total with the number at 220 or higher. Additionally, Chicago has played 23 of their last 33 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home — and they have played 9 of their last 10 road games Over the Total as an underdog. The Bulls have also played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total as a dog overall — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Philadelphia shot 48.1% from the field on Wednesday which was tied for the lowest shooting effort in their last nine games. The 76ers have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. They did not have Ben Simmons against the Rockets who missed the game because of an illness — but he should be back on the court tonight. Philly stays at home where they make 49.5% of their shots en route to 118.4 PPG. They allow their guests to score 112.4 PPG. The Sixers have played 8 of their last 10 home games Over the Total — and they have played 22 of their last 29 home games Over the Total as a favorite. Additionally, the Over is 13-6-1 in the last 20 games against teams with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: UPDATE: Simmons is not playing tonight due to the illness that has dogged him this week (despite having the “probable” listing). No big deal (and this possibility is why I liked the Over versus a potential Philly side play) — the Over is still a strong technical play and what the Sixers lose with his offense, they also lose his elite defensive talents tonight which should ensure the Bulls approach their road scoring average. These two teams have played 14 of their last 20 meetings Over the Total — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games in Philadelphia Over the Total. 25* NBA Pre-All Star Break Friday ESPN Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Bulls (525) and the Philadelphia 76ers (526). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-19-21 |
Leeds United v. Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Top |
0-1 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Wolverhampton (200010) minus the goal-line versus Leeds United (200009). THE SITUATION: Wolverhampton (W8-D6-L10) has won two of their last three EPL matches after their 2-1 win at Southampton on Sunday. Leeds United (W10-D2-L11) has lost two of their last three matches with their 4-2 loss at Arsenal on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE WOLVERHAMPTON MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Wolves have righted their ship after a winless eight-match stretch. Manager Nuno Espirito Santo’s team has defeated the Saints and Arsenal with a draw against Leicester City in their last three EPL matches. Being eliminated from the Europa League and now de-emphasizing the FA Cup has allowed Nuno to privilege his starting XI to his best players. Wolverhampton can struggle given their lack of depth during busy fixture schedules — and the injury to Raul Jimenez took away their best goal-scorer. Adding Willian Jose to bolster the offensive attack last month has helped. The Wolves play much defense when back at home where their opponent’s expected goals allowed mark (xGA) of 1.05 is much better than their 1.49 xGA when on the road. Wolverhampton has won the expected goals battle in three straight matches. Leeds United has lost the xG battle in six of their last seven matches. The Whites may be suffering from fatigue given the active pressing attack that manager Marcelo Bielsa deploys without much of a bench. Leeds is riddled with injuries right now as well to further rob them of depth. The Whites have 18 points on the road in their 12 matches — but their expected points (xPTS) plummets to 12.46 in those road matches. Leeds is last in the EPL in xGA when playing away from home.
FINAL TAKE: Wolverhampton won the reverse fixture by a 1-0 score when they played on October 19th. The Wolves have won four straight matches against Leeds which may be a testament to Nuno’s defensive tactics exposing the unique aggressive attack that Bielsa deploys. 25* English Premier League Friday Afternoon Match of the Month with Wolverhampton (200010) minus the goal-line versus Leeds United (200009). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-18-21 |
Vermont v. Maryland-Baltimore County UNDER 135 |
Top |
80-71 |
Loss |
-105 |
1 h 43 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Vermont Catamounts (307059) and the Maryland-Baltimore County Retrievers (307060). THE SITUATION: Vermont (9-3) has won seven straight games after their 61-57 win against Stony Brook on Sunday. UMBC (13-4) has won three in a row with their 60-48 win at Stony Brook back on February 8th as a 3-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Vermont held Stony Brook to just 32% shooting — and they have then played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after holding their last opponent to 33% or less shooting in their last game. The Catamounts are 15th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 45.1%. Vermont has also played 18 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Catamounts have still covered the point spread in four of their last six games — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total on the road after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Vermont goes back on the road where they have played 5 straight games Under the Total with the number set in the 135.5 to 139.5 point range. The Catamounts have also played 6 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better at home. Furthermore, Vermont has played 13 of their last 18 road games Under the Total as a favorite — and they have played 4 straight road games Under the Total when favored in the 3.5 to 6 point range. The Catamounts should see their stout defense of late travel — they have held their last five opponents to just 53.8 PPG on 31.8% shooting from the field. UMBC held Stony Brook to 32.0% shooting in their last game — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not allowing their last opponent to shoot better than 33%. Additionally, the Retrievers have played 5 straight Unders after not allowing more than 50 points in their last contest. UMBC is also playing outstanding defense right now — they have held their last five opponents to just 60.4 PPG on 37.5% shooting. The Retrievers rank 17th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 45.1%. But will UMBC be rusty with their shooting playing their first game in ten days? They are only making 42.1% of their shots in their last five games which is resulting in only 65.6 PPG. The Retrievers have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They have also played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after winning three of their last four games. They return home where they have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. UMBC has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: The Retrievers have played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 4 straight Unders against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Vermont has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. 25* CBB America East Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Vermont Catamounts (307059) and the Maryland-Baltimore County Retrievers (307060). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-17-21 |
Marquette v. Butler -2 |
Top |
73-57 |
Loss |
-108 |
7 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 6:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Butler Bulldogs (672) minus the points versus the Marquette Golden Eagles (671). THE SITUATION: Butler (7-11) saw their two-game winning streak snapped on Saturday in a 78-63 loss at Georgetown as a 1.5-point underdog. Marquette (9-12) has lost three in a row after their 57-51 loss at Seton Hall as a 6.5-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS MINUS THE POINTS: Butler made only 39.0% of their shots on Saturday in what was the worst shooting effort in their last four games. The Bulldogs have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss. And while Butler has lost four of their last six games, they have then covered the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games after losing four or five of their last six contests. They return home where they are 6-3 this season — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on their home court. The Bulldogs have also covered the point spread in 4 straight home games against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or less on the road. Butler has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a losing record — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games in expected close contests when they are listed in the +/- 3-point range. Head coach LeVall Jordan’s team ranks 27th in the nation by holding their opponents to rebounding only 23.3% of their missed shots. This skill will come in handy against this Golden Eagles team that rebounds 30.4% of their misses shots, ranking 97th nationally. Marquette lost to the Pirates on Sunday despite holding them to just 37.0% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last five games. The Golden Eagles have still allowed their last five opponents to make 46.6% of their shots. Marquette has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread loss. Furthermore, the Golden Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a loss by 6 points or less. Marquette is slumping with six losses in their last seven games while only covering the point spread twice in their last eight games. That is not a good sign for them tonight. They have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after losing at least four or five of their last six games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six contests. They stay on the road for the third game of a rough five-game road trip. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games away from home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams who are winning at least 60% of their home games. The Golden Eagles are just 3-5 on the road — and they allow their home hosts to make 38.1% of their 3-pointers, 282nd in the nation. Marquette has not covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: The Golden Eagles miss freshman Justin Lewis who has missed the last two games doe to a leg injury that leaves him questionable tonight. While he is is scoring only 8.1 PPG, he is one of their best defenders. Butler will be motivated to avenge a 70-67 loss at Marquette on February 2nd as a 4.5-point underdog. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games at home when playing with revenge. 25* CBB Wednesday FS1-TV Game of the Year with the Butler Bulldogs (672) minus the points versus the Marquette Golden Eagles (671). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-16-21 |
Nuggets v. Celtics -1.5 |
Top |
99-112 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 24 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (536) minus the point(s) versus the Denver Nuggets (535). THE SITUATION: Boston (13-13) has lost two straight games after their 104-91 upset loss at Washington as a 7-point underdog on Sunday. Denver (15-11) has won three in a row with their 122-105 upset win against the Los Angeles Lakers Sunday night as a 3-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS MINUS THE POINT(S): Boston shot only 35.6% of their shots on Sunday in what was the worst shooting effort in their last four games. That was the Celtics’ second-straight upset loss after getting stung by Detroit on Friday in a 108-102 loss as a 7-point underdog. The consensus from the players is that they simply need to work harder. Boston has lost ten of their last fifteen games — but injuries have played a role. Marcus Smart is still out with his calf injury after missing the last couple of weeks. But Kemba Walker and Jaylen Brown are back on the court after missing time to join Jayson Tatum to form their big three. Brown and Tatum are emerging into superstars in this league. The Celtics have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss. Boston has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 games after a point spread loss. Boston has played two straight Unders — but they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 29 games after playing two straight Unders. And while the Celtics have only covered the point spread once in their last five games, they have then covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after not covering the point spread in three of their last four games. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight home games when favored by up to 6 points. Denver may be due for a letdown after upset the defending NBA champions — they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a double-digit win and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after a win by at least 15 points. The Nuggets have also failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 31 road games after a double-digit win. Additionally, Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 36 games after winning at least two in a row. And they have failed to cover the point spread in 31 of their last 47 games after scoring at least 120 points in their last game including six of these eight occasions this season. The Nuggets are ravaged with injuries: Will Barton, Paul Millsap, Gary Harris, and PJ Dozier are all out with Monte Morris questionable with a shoulder. Those players are two starters and another three important rotation players. Denver goes back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: The Nuggets are just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog. Boston has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. 25* NBA Pre-All Star Break Non-Conference Game of the Year with the Boston Celtics (536) minus the point(s) versus the Denver Nuggets (535). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-16-21 |
Liverpool v. RB Leipzig +0.5 |
Top |
2-0 |
Loss |
-150 |
1 h 2 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing RB Leipzig (224202) plus the goal-line versus Liverpool (224201) in the first leg of the Round of 16 in the Knockout Stage of the UEFA Champions League. THE SITUATION: Liverpool comes off a 3-1 loss at Leicester City in the English Premier League on Saturday. RB Leipzig defeated Augsburg on Friday by a 2-1 score in the Bundesliga. This match will be played on a neutral field in Budapest.
REASONS TO TAKE RB LEIPZIG WITH THE GOAL-LINE: Liverpool is ravaged with injuries and they are in as worse of form as they have been in over three years. Manager Jurgen Klopp may be without ten front-line players for this match. The crisis starts at center back where they have lost Virgil Van Dijk, Joel Matip, and Joe Gomez to season-ending injuries. Klopp may not have the services of James Milner and Fabinho who suffered knocks over the weekend. These injuries in the back have forced Klopp to move Fabinho and Jordan Henderson from holding midfielder positions to center back. Not only does that put them out of position but it takes away from Klopp’s ability to implement their high press. The Reds’ attackers are not in their best form either with fatigue (and recovering from COVID for Mo Salah) seeming to be issues. Diogo Jota was a shot in the arm for this team after transferring from Wolverhampton but the attacking midfielder is yet another player on the shelf. Liverpool limps into this match with three straight losses in games where they lost the expected goals battle in each contest. The Reds have lost five of their last seven across all competitions. Since the end of the Group Stage in the Champions League in December, Liverpool has won only five of their fifteen matches with six losses. The Reds only allowed three goals in four Group Stage UCL matches — their expected goals allowed (xGA) mark of 9.4 suggests they were very fortunate. Since Christmas, Liverpool has an xGA of 1.28 which is a significant dropoff from their 1.03 xGA last season. The Reds have also struggled away from home in the EPL this season with a W4-D5-L3 mark as compared to their W7-D2-L3 record at home at Anfield. RB Leipzig survived the Group of Death in the Champions League with a clutch 3-2 victory against Manchester United to eliminate the Red Devils from the competition. PSG was also in their Group H. The Red Bulls have since only lost two of their last thirteen matches — and they enter this match on a four-game winning streak. Defense was an issue in the Champions League — but this is usually a tight defensive team. They have registered nine clean sheets across all competitions since advancing to the Round of 16. RB Leipzig has an xGA of 0.88 in the Bundesliga which is the third-best defensive mark across the top-five leagues in Europe. The Red Bulls leads the German top-flight with a +24.3 expected goals net differential.
FINAL TAKE: RB Leipzig may be relatively new to the elite European competition levels — but this is an experienced core of players that went to the Semifinals of the Champions League last summer. They will not fear the moment. They were supposed to host this first leg but COVID restrictions in Germany required this match to be moved to a neutral field in Budapest. That offers little help to Liverpool who is simply not playing with much confidence right now. Klopp publicly conceded that his team would not successfully defend their EPL title this year given their current place in the standings — but I don’t think they can flip the switch in European competition. They tried flipping the switch at home against Man City — yet they were dominated by a 4-1 score earlier this month. 25* UEFA Champions League Round of 16 Match of the Month with RB Leipzig (224202) plus the goal-line versus Liverpool (224201). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-15-21 |
Senators v. Maple Leafs UNDER 6.5 |
Top |
6-5 |
Loss |
-105 |
1 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 7:08 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Ottawa Senators (11) and the Toronto Maple Leafs (12). THE SITUATION: Ottawa (3-12-1) snapped a four-game losing streak on Saturday with their 2-1 win at Winnipeg. Toronto (11-3-1) looks to bounce back from a 2-1 loss at home to Montreal on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Senator have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a win on the road. The Under is also 4-0-1 in their last 5 games after scoring at least two goals or less in their last game — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than two goals in their last contest. Ottawa has not scored more than two goals in five straight games while averaging just 1.4 goals-per-game over that stretch. The Senators have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not scoring more than two goals in two straight games. They stay on the road where they are averaging only 2.1 goals-per-game — and the Under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games away from home. Marcus Hogberg is between the pipes tonight — and I am not going to sugarcoat that. But Matt Murray has no confidence right now as the primary starter for this team so it is not as if waiting for the former Penguin makes sense. There is a reason why the Total is 6.5 — and Ottawa has not allowed more than three goals in five of their last six games. The Under is 6-0-1 in the Senators’ last 7 games as an underdog. And while the Maple Leafs average 3.5 goals-per-games, Ottawa has played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams who average at least 3.0 goals-per-game. Toronto has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than two goals in their last game — and the Under is 5-0-1 in their last 6 games after not scoring more than two goals in their last game. Additionally, the Maple Leafs have played 15 of their last 24 games Under the Total after not scoring more than one goal in their last game. And in their last 19 games after a game where no more than three combined goals were scored, the game finished Under the Total 12 times. Toronto stays at home where they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total with the Total set at 6 or higher. The Under is also 13-3-1 in the Maple Leafs’ last 17 home games when favored. Frederick Andersen should be the goalie tonight. Andersen has a 2.55 Goals-Against-Average with a .909 save percentage in 13 starts but his numbers improve to a 2.00 GAA with a .926 save percentage in his 8 starts at home. Toronto has not allowed more than two goals in four straight games as they are finally beginning to embrace a more defensive approach that will serve them well in the postseason.
FINAL TAKE: Ottawa will be looking to avenge a 3-2 loss at home back on January 16th — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a same-season loss. 25* NHL North Division Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Ottawa Senators (11) and the Toronto Maple Leafs (12). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-15-21 |
Newcastle United v. Chelsea UNDER 3 |
Top |
0-2 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Newcastle United (200089) and Chelsea (200090). THE SITUATION: Newcastle (W7-D4-L12) has won two of their last three matches in the English Premier League with their 3-2 win against Southampton last Saturday. Chelsea (W11-D6-L6) has won four straight games across all competitions with their last match in the EPL last Sunday when they defeated Sheffield United on the road, 2-1.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Newcastle scored three times against the Saints last week despite registering a mere 0.79 expected goals (xG) in that match. The Magpies have scored the fifth-fewest goals in the EPL with their xG also ranking fifth-worst amongst the twenty clubs in the top flight. Manager Steve Bruce will be without his top scorer in this match as well with Callum Wilson out with a hamstring injury. Wilson leads the team with 10 goals with the second-leading scorer for the team only registering four goals. Wilson averages 0.56 xG per 90 minutes — and he accounts for 53% of the expected goals for Newcastle this season either from goals or assists. His absence will likely compel Bruce to have his team play even more cautiously. The Magpies have only allowed more two goals once in their last eleven matches. Chelsea has only allowed one goal in the five matches under new manager Thomas Tuchel — and that was an own-goal against the Blades last week. The Blues then played on Thursday when they shutout Barnsdale, 1-0, in FA Cup action. Chelsea is dominating possession which is helping them limit scoring opportunities for their opponents. The Blues’ four EPL opponents under Tuchel are averaging just 0.55 xG — and they have not allowed a Big Chance (representing a scoring opportunity with a success rate of 35% or higher). But Chelsea is not generating many scoring opportunities themselves under Tuchel. They are averaging only 0.93 non-penalty kick xG in their four league matches under Tuchel. They have scored only six goals in the five matches under Tuchel.
FINAL TAKE: Tuchel has holding midfielder N’Golo Kante healthy again to fortify the defensive structure of his team. Chelsea defeated Newcastle, 2-0, in the reverse fixture on November 21st. That feels like the final score for this rematch — although 1-0 might be the result. 25* EPL Monday NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Newcastle United (200089) and Chelsea (200090). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-14-21 |
Fairfield v. St. Peter's -10 |
Top |
49-66 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 24 m |
Show
|
At 5:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Saint Peter’s Peacocks (820) minus the points versus the Fairfield Stags (819). THE SITUATION: Saint Peter’s (9-7) had won three of their last four games before getting upset at home yesterday to the Stags, 55-50, despite being an 11-point favorite. Fairfield (5-13) has pulled off two straight upset victories.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PEACOCKS MINUS THE POINTS: When Saint Peter’s struggles, it is because they can’t make baskets. The Peacocks made only 32.7% of their shots yesterday which was the third-lowest shooting mark for them all season and their worst shooting effort when playing at home. Leading scorer KC Ndefo was in foul trouble all game and played only 22 minutes — so the reset today will help. These two teams went into halftime yesterday with the score tied, 17-17. Saint Peter’s has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after not scoring more than 25 points in the first half of their last game. Saint Peter’s has also covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 home games after playing at home where they did not score more than 60 points. Head coach Shaheen Holloway’s group does play ferocious defense — Saint Peter’s ranks second in the nation by holding their opponents to just 41.2% shooting inside the arc. They held Fairfield to 37.3% shooting which was actually the highest opponent field goal percentage they allowed in their last six games. The Peacocks’ also force turnovers in 22.0% of their opponent’s possessions which is 42nd in the country. The Stags are loose with the basketball — they turn the ball over in 21.2% of their possessions away from, 245th in the nation. They turned the ball over 17 times yesterday accounting for 27.7% of their possessions. Saint Peter’s should get plenty of easy scoring chances tonight — they just need to make more than just 2 of 17 shots from behind the arc as they did yesterday. The Peacocks have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games on their home court — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. They suffered their first loss at home in six games yesterday — but they are still outscoring their visitors by +7.9 PPG due to their defense that holds their opponents to 55.8 PPG on 35.4% shooting. Saint Peter’s has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games when favored by 9.5 to 12 points. Fairfield is 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games after a point spread loss. The Stags have also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after an upset win as a road underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after an upset win against a conference opponent. Fairfield’s defensive effort was out of the ordinary — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after holding their previous opponent to 33% of less shooting. The Stags have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 55 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 32 games after not allowing more than 50 points. They allow their home hosts to made 45.3% of their shots which results in 70.0 PPG — and they allow conference foes to shoot 46.5%. Fairfield may not crack 50 points in this rematch either as they score only 58.0 PPG on the road on 38.4% shooting. The Stags have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 road games against teams who are winning at least 60% of their shots at home. Fairfield has also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 road games with the Total under 130.
FINAL TAKE: Four of Saint Peter’s nine wins have been by double-digits — so they have been able to generate enough offense to cover 10 or so points. The Peacocks have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games when playing with same-season revenge — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games when avenging an upset loss as a home favorite laying 7 or more points. Saint Peter’s has also covered the point spread in 6 straight home games when playing with revenge from a loss where they did not score more than 60 points. 25* CBB Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Game of the Year with the Saint Peter’s Peacocks (820) minus the points versus the Fairfield Stags (819). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-14-21 |
Fulham v. Everton -0.25 |
Top |
2-0 |
Loss |
-117 |
2 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 2:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Everton (200098) minus the goal-line versus Fulham (200097). THE SITUATION: Everton (W11-D4-L6) earned a late 3-3 draw at Manchester United last Saturday in their most recent match in the English Premier League. Fulham (W2-D9-L11) is winless in their last 12 matches after a 0-0 draw with West Ham last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE EVERTON MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Toffees showed grit last week by scoring in the final moments of stoppage time to earn the 1-point from the draw with Man United who is currently second place in the EPL. Manager Carlo Ancelotti’s then followed that up on Wednesday by outlasting Tottenham by a 5-4 score to advance in the FA Cup. Everton has scored eight goals in their last two matches — both against traditional Big Six sides — and they have scored ten goals in their last three matches across all competitions. This is a team that tends to feast on the bottom half of the table as well — they have a +3.08 net expected points differential against these clubs. They return home where they will have something to prove at Goodison Park after a flat 2-0 effort in their most recent home match in league play. Ancelotti is dealing with some injuries for this match with forward Dominic Calvert-Lewin and keeper Jordan Pickford out and defenseman Lucas Digne questionable with a knock. While the Toffees will miss DCL up top, his goal-scoring is mostly from poaching. Richarlison will move up the pitch to take that role — and the team still has James Rodriguez in the middle of the pitch. The Colombian is the straw who stirs the drink for this team when he is healthy. Fulham is struggling to score goals — they have managed only four goals in their last eight matches. Over their last 12 games, they have generated only 0.96 expected goals. The Cottagers are also leaky on defense. In their last six matches, Fulham is bottom-four in Big Chances Allowed (representing scoring opportunities with a success rate of 35% or higher). In their last seven matches, the Cottagers are allowing an expected goals allowed mark (xGA) of 1.74. And against teams in the top-seven in the EPL table (including Everton), they have an xGA of 1.98.
FINAL TAKE: The concern for manager Scott Parker with his Fulham team is that he changed tactics to play more conservatively after their 3-2 loss at home to Everton on November 22nd. The Toffees generated 1.99 xG that match. The Cottagers saw a short-term improvement in defense — but this better play has waned while the Fulham attack has suffered. Everton needs this victory after giving away points in some recent matches (like Newcastle). 25* EPL Sunday Match of the Month with Everton (200098) minus the goal-line versus Fulham (200097). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-13-21 |
Samford v. VMI -5 |
Top |
56-85 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 49 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the VMI Keydets (616) minus the points versus the Samford Bears (615). VMI (10-10) has lost two of their last three games after their 74-72 loss at Western Carolina on Wednesday as a 1.5-point underdog. Samford (6-10) has lost three straight games as well as seven of their last eight with their 77-70 loss to Mercer as a 4.5-point underdog on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE KEYDETS MINUS THE POINTS: VMI allowed the Catamounts to make 45.2% of their shots in what was the worst defensive effort in their last four games. They should play better this afternoon since they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after a straight-up loss — including covering the point spread in seven of these last eight situations. The Keydets have also covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a loss to a Southern Conference rival — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a loss on the road. This is VMI’s just second game since February 3rd — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games if they are not playing more than their second game in the last week. They return home where they are 9-1 this season with an average winning margin of +16.1 PPG. They make 50.6% of their shots at home which is generating 89.2 PPG — and they hold their guests to just 40.8% shooting from the field. The Keydets have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 home games including their last seven games. They also have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. This is VMI’s first home game in their last four games after playing their last three contests on the road. Their last home game was on January 27th — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 home games after playing at least their last three games on the road. The Keydets are one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the nation as they are 24th nationally with a 38.2% shooting mark from behind the arc — and they improve to a 43.6% shooting percentage from downtown when playing in their own gym, 10th best in the nation. Defending the perimeter is an area of weakness for the Bulldogs as they rank 332nd nationally by allowing their opponents to nail 47.7% of their 3-pointers when they are playing on the road. Samford is also 323rd in the nation with an opponent's free throw attempt-to-field goal attempt ratio of 41.0% — and VMI makes 78.7% of their free throws at home, ranking 23rd nationally. The Bulldogs make 47.3% of their shots on Wednesday in a losing effort which was the best shooting effort in their last seven games. But Samford has failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 26 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 19 games after losing two in a row. The Bulldogs have surrendered at least 77 points in their last two games — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after allowing at least 75 points in two straight contests. They go back on the road where they are just 2-5 this season — and they are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 road games. Additionally, Samford has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road with the total set in the 150s — and they are 4-16-1 ATS in their last 21 road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Bulldogs make only 29.4% of their 3-pointers, 313th nationally, so it may be difficult for them to stay competitive in this one. VMI averages 11 made 3-pointers per game — and Samford has failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games after 15 games into the season against teams who average at least 8 made 3s per contest. The Bulldogs have also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games with the Total in the 150s — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 30 games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: VMI will be motivated to avenge an 84-71 loss at Samford as a 2.5-point underdog on December 30th — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when playing with revenge. 25* CBB Southern Conference Game of the Year with the VMI Keydets (616) minus the points versus the Samford Bears (615). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-12-21 |
UAB v. Louisiana Tech UNDER 135 |
Top |
58-70 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 52 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the UAB Blazers (869) and the Louisiana Tech (870). THE SITUATION: UAB (16-2) has won six straight games with their 75-60 win against UTEP as an 8.5-point favorite last Saturday. Louisiana Tech (15-6) saw their four-game winning streak snapped last Saturday in their 57-55 loss at North Texas as a 4-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Blazers made 53.8% of their shots last Saturday in what was the best shooting effort in their last 13 games. UAB has played 14 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, while the Blazers have covered the point spread in their last two games as a favorite, they have then played 7 straight games Under the Total after covering the point spread in their last two games as a favorite. They are likely going to not shoot as well tonight as they did against the Miners — their 45.2% effective field goal percentage when playing on the road, 287th in the nation. They make only 41.5% of their shots on the road which translates into just 62.7 PPG. But UAB holds their home hosts to only 56.7 PPG on 41.4% shooting. The Blazers rank 25th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they improve to 23rd in the nation in true road games in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. UAB has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 5 straight road games Under the Total as an underdog. Furthermore, the Blazers have played 21 of their last 30 games Under the Total with the number set in the 130s — including playing Unders in six of these last seven games. Louisiana Tech has played a decisive 51 of their last 82 games Under the Total after a loss on the road to a conference rival. The Bulldogs have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread win. And while Louisiana Tech has covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. This is the Bulldogs’ second game since last Friday — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total when playing just their second game in the last seven days. Louisiana Tech has not allowed more than 63 points in five straight games — and they have then played 4 straight games Under the Total after not allowing more than 65 points in at least three straight games. They have held their last five opponents to just 60.0 PPG on 39.9% shooting from the field. But they are scoring only 67.4 PPG in these previous five games. They return home where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total — and they have played 19 of their last 27 home games Under the Total as a favorite of 3 points or less.
FINAL TAKE: Louisiana Tech has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher — and the Under is 7-2-1 in UAB’s last 10 games against teams with a winning percentage of at least 60%. 25* CBB Conference USA Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the UAB Blazers (869) and the Louisiana Tech (870). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-11-21 |
Pacers -2.5 v. Pistons |
Top |
111-95 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 24 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Indiana Pacers (533) minus points versus the Detroit Pistons (534). THE SITUATION: Indiana (12-13) has lost four games in a row after their 104-94 upset loss at Brooklyn last night as a 1.5-point favorite. Detroit (6-18) snapped a four-game losing streak on Tuesday with their 122-111 upset win against the Nets as a 5.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PACERS MINUS THE POINTS: Indiana made only 39.1% of their shots last night in what was the worst offensive effort of their season. The Pacers’ starting five scored only 51 points in that game. Indiana should play much better tonight. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their 8 games this season after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a double-digit upset loss. Indiana has not covered the point spread in four straight games as well as six of their last seven — but they have then covered the point spread in 7 straight games after failing to cover the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. And the Pacers have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing without a day of rest. Indiana stays on the road where they are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 road games against teams with a losing record on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 road games as a favorite. The Pacers are without T.J. Warren and Caris LeVert who they acquired in the Victor Oladipo trade — but they have still taken care of business with a 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games against teams with a winning percentage no better than 40%. The Pistons play at a fast tempo who averages 89 shot attempts-per-game — but Indiana has covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 road games against teams who average at least 88 shots-per-game. Detroit made 56% of their shots on Tuesday which was the best shooting effort of their season in what was just the third time all season that they made at least 50% of their shots — but they are just 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after a straight-up win. They are also 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a win by at least 10 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after an upset win by at least 10 points. The Pistons have also failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 38 games after a point spread win. They did allow the Nets to make 50% of their shots on the heels of allowing the Laker to make 56.0% of their shots in their previous game. Detroit has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after allowing their last two opponents to make at least 50% of their shots. The Pistons are also 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games when playing with one day of rest. Head coach Duane Casey is doing a fine job with one of the worst rosters in the league. Detroit is usually competitive — but they lost one of their best players over the weekend when they shipped Derrick Rose to New York for the underachieving Dennis Smith who was one of the worst players in the NBA last season before getting relegated to the end of the bench for the Knicks (!) this year. Maybe Smith can be salvaged but that will be a long-term project. Detroit shoots only 42.7% when playing at home so their shooting should come back to earth when now playing a team that attempts to play defense (versus the Kyrie Irving/James Harden Nets’ last night). The Pistons have scored 251 points in their last two games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 110 points in two straight games. Detroit is also 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: The Pistons have failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 38 games against Central Division foes. And while this is a team that plays hard most nights, they have failed to cover the point spread in all 3 of their expected close games this season. Look for Indiana to take care of this business in this winnable game. 25* NBA Pre-All Star Break Central Division Game of the Year with the Indiana Pacers (533) minus points versus the Detroit Pistons (534). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-11-21 |
Colorado v. Stanford +1 |
Top |
69-51 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Stanford Cardinal (718) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus Colorado Buffaloes (717). THE SITUATION: Stanford (12-7) has won two games in a row after their 76-70 win against California as a 10.5-point favorite on Sunday. Colorado (15-5) has won two straight games as well as four of their last five contests with their 78-49 win against Oregon State as a 13-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINAL PLUS THE POINT(S): The Buffaloes made 55.8% of their shots for the second-straight game to defeat the Beavers. But Colorado has failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games after making at least 50% of their shots in two straight games. They also held Oregon State to just 32.7% shooting in what was the best defensive effort in their last 15 games. But the Buffaloes have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after allowing no more than 50 points in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a double-digit win against a Pac-12 foe — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after winning at least 15 of their last 20 games. Now after getting rich at home in the high-altitude of Boulder where they are 8-1 this season after a four-game homestand, they go back on the road for the first time since January 23rd. Colorado has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after winning their previous two games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games on the road after winning their last two games at home. Furthermore, the Buffaloes have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 road games after playing at least three straight games at home. Colorado ranks 7th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing at home fueled by them nailing 44.0% of their 3-pointers in Boulder, 8th best in the nation. But in their eight true road games on their opponent’s home court, the Buffaloes make only 29.7% of their 3-pointers, 269th in the nation, while falling to 68th nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency in true road games. Colorado has failed to cover the point spread in 42 of their last 56 road games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 35 of their last 47 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Stanford has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 home games after a win at home — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight home games after a win at home against a Pac-12 foe. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 home games after winning at least two in a row. The Cardinal made 58.3% of their shots against the Golden Bears — but that was the third straight game when they shot at least 51.9% from the field — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after shooting at least 55% in their last contest. This is a very tough team to beat if they are making their shots as they rank 18th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They are also 9th in the nation in getting to the free-throw line. They are 5-1 at home where they are making 51.4% of their shots while holding their guests to 41.1% shooting. Stanford is 35-17-1 ATS in their last 53 games at home — and they are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 home games against teams with a winning record on the road.
FINAL TAKE: The Cardinal will be looking to avenge a 77-64 loss at Colorado on January 16th — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games when playing with same-season revenge. Stanford has also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 home games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* CBB Thursday ESPNU Game of the Year with the Stanford Cardinal (718) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus Colorado Buffaloes (717). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-10-21 |
Virginia v. Georgia Tech +4.5 |
Top |
57-49 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 46 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (670) plus the points versus the Virginia Cavaliers (669). THE SITUATION: Georgia Tech (9-6) has won two of their last three games with their 82-80 win against Notre Dame as a 3.5-point favorite on Saturday. Virginia (13-3) has won nine of their last ten with their 73-66 victory against Pittsburgh as an 11-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE YELLOW JACKETS PLUS THE POINTS: Georgia Tech should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games after a straight-up win at home — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after a home win against an ACC rival. They also have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a win by 6 points or less. Additionally, the Yellow Jackets have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after not covering the point spread — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win at home as a favorite where they did not cover the point spread. Georgia Tech shot a season-high 58.3% from the field on Saturday which would usually give me pause — but that was the fifth time in their last nine games where they shot at least 50% from the field. Furthermore, good offensive efforts are usually a good sign for this team as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after shooting at least 55% from the field — including both times this season. They stay at home on North Avenue in Atlanta where they rank 22nd in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency. The Yellow Jackets are 7-2 at home with an average winning margin of +8.6 net PPG. Georgia Tech scores 83.0 PPG at home where they make 48.7% of their shots. The Yellow Jackets have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight home games as an underdog. They did allow the Fighting Irish to make 59.3% of their shots on Saturday which was the worst defensive effort of their season — but they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after allowing at least 80 points in their last game. And while Georgia Tech has not covered the point spread in two straight games, they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after not covering the point spread in two straight contests. This is a program that has covered the point spread in 50 of their last 74 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. Virginia made 53.2% of their shots on Saturday against Pitt which was the best shooting effort in their last five games. The Cavaliers have allowed only 27 and 24 points in the first half in two straight games — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games after not allowing more than 30 points in the first half in two straight games. Virginia has been favored in ten straight games since their showdown with Gonzaga — but not only have they failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after being favored in at least four straight games, they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after being favored in at least five straight games. They go back on the road where they are just 4-3 this season — and they are 3-8-2 ATS in their last 13 games against teams with a winning record at home. The Cavaliers are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games when favored — and they are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: Georgia Tech will be looking to avenge a narrow 64-62 loss to the Cavaliers in Charlottesville on January 23rd as an 8.5-point favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 33 of their last 53 games when playing with revenge from a loss by 3 points or less. 25* CBB ACC Underdog of the Year with the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (670) plus the points versus the Virginia Cavaliers (669). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-09-21 |
West Virginia v. Texas Tech OVER 140.5 |
Top |
82-71 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the West Virginia Mountaineers (625) and the Texas Tech Red Raiders (626). THE SITUATION: West Virginia (13-5) has won four of their last five games after their 91-79 win against Kansas on Saturday as a 2.5-point favorite. Texas Tech (14-5) has won three in a row with their 73-62 victory at Kansas State as a 15.5-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Mountaineers have played 6 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight Overs after a point spread victory. Additionally, West Virginia has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after playing a game at home where both teams scored at least 75 points. The Mountaineers shot 50% from the field on Saturday which initially gave me pause that it was an outlier performance. But this is one of Bob Huggins’ best shooting teams in his career — they are second in the Big 12 by making 42.9% of their 3-pointers. They are making 46.7% of their shots over their last five games which is resulting in an 80.8 PPG scoring average. Huggins also deploys a style of play that generates more scoring opportunities even if their shots are not falling. West Virginia pulls down 36.1% of their missed shots, 10th in the nation. They also force turnovers in 20.4% of their opponent’s possessions. The Mountaineers have played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s — and they have played 4 straight games on the road with the number in the 140 to 149.5 range. Furthermore, West Virginia has played 7 of their last 8 road games Over the Total — and they have played 5 straight road games Over the Total. Texas Tech has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. The Red Raiders have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a victory where they did not cover the point spread as a favorite. Texas Tech made 47.1% of their shots on Saturday — the best shooting effort in their last six games. Again, that gave me an initial pause. Yet the Red Raiders only scored 30 points in the first half in that game after scoring a mere 25 points in their previous game against Oklahoma. Texas Tech has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after failing to score more than 30 points in the first half in two straight games. And the Red Raiders’ defensive play has not been quite as stingy as of late — they have allowed their last five opponents to make 44.1% of their shots resulting in 68.2 PPG which is a sharp uptick from the 61.7 PPG they allow on 40.5% shooting for the season. Texas Tech has allowed their last two opponents to score just 52 and 62 points — but they have then played 33 of their last 49 home games Over the Total after not allowing more than 65 points in two straight games. The Red Raiders also create a bench of additional scoring opportunities if their shots are not falling. They are 24th in the nation by pulling down 34.7% of their missed shots. They are seventh in the nation by forcing turnovers in 24.9% of their opponent’s possessions. And head coach Chris Beard’s team is 14th in the nation in getting to the free-throw line. Texas Tech has played 6 of their last 8 games Over Total when favored — and 3 of their 4 games this season against teams winning 60 to 80% of their games finished Over the Total.
FINAL TAKE: The Red Raiders will be looking to avenge an 88-87 loss to the Mountaineers in Morgantown on January 25th. Texas Tech has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total when attempting to avenge a same-season loss. 25* CBB Tuesday ESPN Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the West Virginia Mountaineers (625) and the Texas Tech Red Raiders (626). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-08-21 |
Oklahoma State v. Kansas -4.5 |
Top |
66-78 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 55 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Kansas Jayhawks (864) minus the points versus the Oklahoma State Cowboys (863). THE SITUATION: Kansas (12-7) has lost five of their last seven games after their 91-79 loss at West Virginia on Saturday as a 2.5-point underdog. Oklahoma State (12-5) has won three of their last four games after their 75-67 win in double-overtime against Texas on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE JAYHAWKS MINUS THE POINTS: Kansas allowed the Mountaineers to make 50% of their shots — that was just the fourth time all season that they have allowed an opponent to shoot 50% or better from the field. The Jayhawks are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing their last opponent to score at least 90 points in their last game. The five losses for head coach Bill Self’s team were all on the road during this recent tough stretch of games — and the two wins were their only two games at home at Allen Fieldhouse. This is just their third game at home since January 9th. Playing at home will help — Kansas is 8-1 on their home court this season while outscoring their opponents by +12.1 PPG. The Jayhawks should play much better on the defensive end of the court as they hold their guests to just 38.5% shooting which is resulting in just 60.8 PPG. This team has been very reliable under Self when bouncing-back from losses. Kansas is 46-21-3 ATS in their last 70 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a loss to a Big 12 rival. The Jayhawks have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a double-digit loss — and they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 31 games after a loss on the road by 10 or more points. Kansas has only covered the point spread twice in their last eight games — but they have covered the point spread in 31 of their last 47 games after failing to cover the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games including covering the point spread in four of these last five situations. Playing at home should help the Jayhawks get a few more whistles (even without fans) as their opponents have only been called for 12 and 13 personal fouls in their last two games. Kansas has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after playing two straight games where their opponents did not get call for more than 15 personal fouls in their last game. Oklahoma State held the Longhorns to just 25.3% shooting which was the best defensive effort of their season. But the Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after holding their previous opponent to no better than 33% shooting. Additionally, Oklahoma State has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after an upset victory — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after an upset win as a home dog. Furthermore, the Cowboys are just 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games after a straight-win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after winning three of their last four games. Now Oklahoma State goes back on the road for just the third time since January 9th. The Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 50 of their last 77 road games as an underdog of 6 points or less — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games as an underdog in the 3.5 to 6 point range. Oklahoma State has been living on the edge as they have allowed their last two opponents to attempt 11 and 12 more shots from the field. The Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after taking at least 10 fewer shots than their opponent in two straight contests.
FINAL TAKE: Kansas will be motivated to avenge a 75-70 upset loss at Oklahoma State as a 3.5-point underdog on January 12th — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when avenging an upset loss. 25* CBB Big Monday ESPN Game of the Year with the Kansas Jayhawks (864) minus the points versus the Oklahoma State Cowboys (863). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-08-21 |
Islanders v. Rangers UNDER 5.5 |
Top |
2-0 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 7:08 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Islanders (67) and the New York Rangers (68). THE SITUATION: The New York Islanders (4-4-2) snapped a five-game losing streak on Saturday with their 4-3 win at home against Pittsburgh. The New York Rangers (4-4-2) have won two straight as well as three of their last four after their victory against Washington on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Islanders have scored more than three goals just three times this season. They have played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a win at home against a divisional rival. They also have played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total after a narrow win at home by just one goal. The Islanders have played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total after a game where both teams scored at least three goals. They have also played 37 of their last 56 games Under the Total after a game where at least seven combined goals were scored. And while the Islanders' previous game was a 4-3 loss at Philadelphia, they have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after playing two straight games where at least seven combined goals were scored. They go back on the road where they are scoring only 2.0 Goals-Per-Game. Semyon Varlamov will be between the pipes tonight with his 2.14 Goals-Against-Average and .921 save percentage in seven starts this season. Varlamov was reliable on the road last year with a 2.36 GAA along with a .922 save percentage. The Islanders have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total on the road — and the Under is a decisive 34-16-3 in their last 53 road games as an underdog. The Rangers have played 17 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a win at home where they scored at least four goals. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after winning two in a row on home ice. This is the Rangers’ fourth straight game at home at Madison Square Garden where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games at home Under the Total when favored. Igor Shesterkin will be in goal tonight given his improved form as of late. He had 31 saves on Saturday against the Capitals. Shesterkin is making a claim to be the team’s top goalie with 79 saves in the 84 shots he has faced in his last three games for a .940 save percentage. In his four starts at home this season, Shesterkin has a 2.35 GAA with a .913 save percentage.
FINAL TAKE: The Under is 3-1-1 in the last five meetings between these two teams after the Rangers’ 5-0 victory back on January 16th. 25* NHL Monday NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New York Islanders (67) and the New York Rangers (68). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-07-21 |
Chiefs v. Bucs +3.5 |
Top |
9-31 |
Win
|
100 |
306 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (102) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (101). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (14-5) upset Green Bay in the NFC Championship Game by a 31-26 score as a 2.5-point underdog. Kansas City (16-2) defeated Buffalo by a 38-24 score as a 2.5-point favorite in the AFC Championship Game to advance to their opportunity to defend their Super Bowl championship from last season. This game will be played in Raymond James Stadium in Tampa Bay making the Buccaneers the first team to playing in their home stadium in a Super Bowl.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS PLUS THE POINTS: Kansas City played their best game of the 2020-21 season against the Bills in their two-touchdown victory. That is the Chiefs’ team I expected to show-up in the second half in our 25* play on KC against Cleveland. And we had Patrick Mahomes and company against Buffalo last week — so I do not recommend betting against the reigning champs lightly. I was tickled when hearing the pundits talk about the Chiefs inability to cover point spreads as of late — they went into the AFC Championship Game having only covered the spread once in their previous nine games. As if just winning 15 of 17 games was not impressive enough. Yet it took 45 minutes of great football from the Chiefs (after falling behind 9-0) for the conventional wisdom to dramatically shift to just how invincible they are. The truth is somewhere in the middle. But it remains hard to repeat as a Super Bowl champion — and Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after not covering the point spread more than once in their last three games. The Chiefs have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after winning at least six or seven of their last eight games. Additionally, Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a win at home — which is usually when the public starts bandwagoning Mahomes again. The DVOA metrics at Football Outsider consider the Buccaneers the best team in the NFL (and before home field advantage). I do take their numbers with a few grains of salt — a bettor will go bankrupt fast relying exclusively on them. But, their analytics provide evidence that the Chiefs are perhaps overvalued in this game. And that is before the injury situation — which I consider severe. I have worried all postseason about KC being without right tackle Mitchell Schwartz who is on Injured Reserve with a back injury. Head coach Andy Reid said that he did not expect Schwartz to be available for the Super Bowl. The Achilles’ injury to Eric Fisher late in the Bills’ game leaves the Chiefs without their starting tackles — and the Buccaneers’ pass rush is ferocious now that have Vita Vea and Shaq Barrett back from injury to join Ndamukong Suh clogging the middle and Jason Pierre-Paul rushing from the outside. I do begin to worry about Mahomes’ left toe a bit when thinking about him missing both tackles — he was better on Sunday but not 100%. Tampa Bay was always going to be a work-in-progress in a year without a full training camp to get Tom Brady in-synch with head coach Bruce Arians. Adding Leonard Fournette and then Antonio Brown midseason to a team already loaded with talent at the skill positions made the challenge more difficult — but this team is peaking at the right time with two weeks to further grow. Since their loss to the Chiefs by a 27-24 score on November 29th, Tampa Bay is 7-0 with an average winning margin of +13.7 PPG while averaging 34.3 PPG and 424.0 Yards-Per-Game. Home field is also significant — not for the cheering crowd, which doesn’t hurt. The Buccaneers getting to play in a Super Bowl in their comfortable and familiar facilities while sleeping in their own beds is a big deal.
FINAL TAKE: Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games as a favorite. Tampa Bay has covered the point spread in 4 straight games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games as an underdog. The Buccaneers have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they will be a bit better on February 7th than they were when they last played over two months ago. 25* NFL Super Bowl *A-List* Special with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (102) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (101). Best of luck for us — Frank (and look for my Super Bowl Prop Bets Report the morning of the Super Bowl).
|
02-07-21 |
Chiefs v. Bucs OVER 56 |
Top |
9-31 |
Loss |
-110 |
305 h 58 m |
Show
|
At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the Super Bowl between the Kansas City Chiefs (101) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (102). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (16-2) defeated Buffalo by a 38-24 score as a 2.5-point favorite in the AFC Championship Game to advance to their opportunity to defend their Super Bowl championship from last season. Tampa Bay (14-5) upset Green Bay in the NFC Championship Game by a 31-26 score as a 2.5-point underdog. This game will be played in Raymond James Stadium in Tampa Bay making the Buccaneers the first team to playing in their home stadium in a Super Bowl.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Kansas City scored 21 points in the second quarter en route to their easy victory over the Bills while demonstrating just how good their offense is when full-engaged. The Chiefs scored 32.1 PPG in their first ten games of the season before going on cruise control a bit which coincided with their 27-24 victory at Tampa Bay on November 29th in Week 12. Kansas City also raced out to a 19-3 halftime lead in their previous game against Cleveland. A fast start for Patrick Mahomes should help ensure this becomes a high-scoring game — they have played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after scoring at least 17 points in the first half in two straight games. Since the Chiefs “flipped the switch” in the postseason again, they have averaged 7.06 and 6.97 Yards-Per-Play — and they have then played 21 of their last 31 games Over the Total after averaging at least 6.5 YPP in two straight games. Kansas City has also scored 31.6 PPG in their eight games on the road — and they have played 10 of their last 15 road games Over the Total with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. The Chiefs’ defense allowed 363 yards to the Bills — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Tampa Bay was always going to be a work-in-progress in a year without a full training camp to get Tom Brady in-synch with head coach Bruce Arians. Adding Leonard Fournette and then Antonio Brown (who should be healthy again for the Super Bowl) midseason to a team already loaded with talent at the skill positions made the challenge more difficult — but this team is peaking at the right time with two weeks to further grow. Since their loss to the Chiefs by a 27-24 score on November 29th, Tampa Bay is scoring 34.3 PPG while averaging 424.0 Yards-Per-Game. The Buccaneers have scored at least 30 points in six straight games — win or lose, I suspect they will hit the 30-point threshold for a seventh straight game. And I expect Mahomes to at least be able to keep up since KC will keep their foot on the gas pedal all game — ensuring our Over. Tampa Bay has played 13 of their last 20 games Over the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. The Buccaneers have also played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after scoring at least 30 points in two straight games. The Buccaneers defense allowed the Packers to gain 381 yards — and they have played 19 of their last 26 games Over the Total after allowing at least 350 yards. Tampa Bay has seen at least 50 points in six straight games — and not only have they played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after playing at least three straight games where at least 50 combined points were scored but they have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after playing four straight games where at least 50 combined points were scored. The Buccaneers have also played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Tampa Bay has played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total when avenging a loss at home to their opponent — and they have played 8 straight games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a loss by 7 points or less. Giving head coach Bruce Arian to dial-up plays and a strategy to react to their loss just over two months ago should ensure the Bucs’ score more points this time around — and that should push this rematch above the number. 25* NFL Total of the Year with Over the Total in the Super Bowl between the Kansas City Chiefs (101) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (102). Best of luck for us — Frank (and look for my Super Bowl Prop Bets Report the morning of the Super Bowl).
|
02-07-21 |
Manchester City v. Liverpool UNDER 2.75 |
Top |
4-1 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 11:30 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Manchester City (200057) and Liverpool (200058). THE SITUATION: Man City (W14-D5-L2) has won nine straight matches in the English Premier League after their 2-0 win at Burnley on Wednesday. Liverpool (W11-D7-L4) looks to bounce-back from a 1-0 loss at home to Brighton and Hove Albion on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Manchester City has developed into a defensive juggernaut this season with manager Pep Guardiola shifting tactics a bit. He also found a dominant defensive pairing at center back in Ruben Dias partnering with John Stones. In the Cityzens’ last 12 matches which has featured this pairing, they have surrendered just one goal. Perhaps even more impressive, Man City has allowed a mere 5.43 combined expected goals (xG) over that span. Their defense has been suffocating. Burnley barely registered 0.07 xG on Wednesday. They have not allowed these last 12 opponents to generate more than 1.0 xG. And even the one goal they allowed over this span was a meaningless stoppage-time goal to Chelsea in a 3-1 victory. Man City has eight clean sheets in their last nine EPL matches — and they have an incredible 16 clean sheets in their last 20 contests. Yet all this defense is coming at a cost. The offensive attack has been reeled in a bit. The Cityzens are averaging 1.99 xG this season which is a drop off from their 2.67 xG and 2.40 xG marks in the previous two seasons. Some of this is tactics — but some of this dropoff is also because the starting XI is without key scoring talent. Their best pure goal-scorer is Sergio Aguero but has barely played this season. Their best overall offensive player for goal-scoring, assists, and penalty kicks is Kevin DeBruyne but he is out with an injury. Man City has not registered 2.0 xG or higher in three straight matches — they are simply not generating many Big Chances (representing a scoring chance with a success rate of 35% or higher). On the road, while the Cityzens have scored 24 goals, their xG drops to 19.15 for a more modest 1.74 xG per match. Liverpool is in a scoring slump right now in a combination of bad luck and attackers out-of-form. The Reds have not scored in three straight home matches — and it has been a stunning 348 minutes since they last scored a goal at home at Anfield. In their last four matches overall, Liverpool is averaging just 1.48 xG per match. Granted, the Reds expect Sadio Mane to be back on the pitch for this showdown — and the underlying numbers indicate that they should be seeing more scoring. Well, no kidding! Facing an opponent who will not be content to park the bus in back will help. But Man City is not the side a team wants to face to break out of their scoring doldrums. Jurgen Klopp’s team has been strong defensively still — even with plenty of injuries. Since losing defensive back Virgil Van Dijk, Liverpool is allowing just 1.08 expected goals (xGA) per match. And some of this defensive success comes from Klopp also choosing to rein in his offensive attack. One of the residual impacts of the altered schedule this season given COVID’s impact on the 2019-20 campaign is a condensed schedule. Uber-aggressive pressing teams like Man City and Liverpool have been less ambitious simply because of player fatigue. Expect both managers to exhibit caution in this showdown. Guardiola will be satisfied with a draw.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams played to a 1-1 draw in the reverse fixture on November 8th in a match where both defenses were not playing nearly as well as they are now. Expect a lower-scoring match. 25* EPL Sunday NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Manchester City (200057) and Liverpool (200058). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-06-21 |
Grizzlies +1.5 v. Pelicans |
Top |
109-118 |
Loss |
-105 |
6 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Memphis Grizzlies (553) plus the point(s) versus the New Orleans Pelicans (534). Memphis (9-8) has lost two in a row after their 115-103 upset loss at home to Houston on Thursday as a 4-point favorite. New Orleans (9-12) has won two in a row with their 114-113 upset win at Indiana last night as a 1.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GRIZZLIES PLUS THE POINTS: Memphis had been on a seven-game winning streak where they held allowed only 104.3 PPG before losing their last two games against the Rockets and Indiana by double-digits. The Grizzlies made only 42.5% of their shots which was the worst offensive effort in their last ten games. This group had been doing better in provide offensive support for their superstar, Ja Morant. Memphis has still made 49.9% of their shots in their last five games while averaging 117.8 PPG over that span. The Grizzlies’ starters combined to make only 34.6% of their shots with Morant only 6 of 15 for 15 points. Memphis should respond with a better effort tonight. They have covered the point spread in 4 of the last 5 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a double-digit loss at home. The Grizzlies have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after losing two in a row by 10 or more points. Taylor Jenkins is one of the most underrated coaches in the NBA. Even with this team playing without two of their top three players, Jaren Jackson, Jr. and Justise Winslow, while being hit pretty hard by COVID quarantining protocols, Memphis remains seventh in the NBA in Defensive Efficiency. Defense travels — and the Grizzlies are 6-2 on the road with an average winning margin of +8.5 PPG while making 48.5% of their shots. Memphis has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games as an underdog. Killian Tillie has been downgraded to out with a foot issue and Brandon Clarke is questionable with a calf — but reinforcements are returning for Jenkins with Jonas Valanciunas and Grayson Allen upgraded to probable after being in quarantine. New Orleans has pulled off two straight upset victories against Phoenix and the Pacers last night — and they have won four of their last six games. The Pelicans made 53.9% of their shots last night in what was the best shooting effort of the season. They also held Indiana to 44.1% shooting in what was the best defensive performance in their last five games — although the Pacers did make 20 of their 42 shots from downtown. New Orleans has still allowed their last five opponents to make 47.5% of their shots which has resulted in 116.8 PPG. The Pelicans are 25th in the NBA in Defensive Efficiency under the first-year of head coach Stan Van Gundy. New Orleans’ starting five logged-in 162:01 combined minutes last night — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games when their starting five combined to play at least 160 minutes the previous day. The Pelicans have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a narrow win by 3 points or less — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning two of their last three games. They stay at home where they have failed to cover the points spread in 7 of their last 8 home games against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 home games when favored.
FINAL TAKE: Memphis has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of the last 5 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when laying the points. 25* NBA Pre-All Star Break Southwest Division Game of the Year with the Memphis Grizzlies (553) plus the point(s) versus the New Orleans Pelicans (534). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-06-21 |
Mississippi State +3 v. South Carolina |
Top |
75-59 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Mississippi State Bulldogs (671) plus the points versus the South Carolina Gamecocks (672). THE SITUATION: Mississippi State (10-9) has lost four of their last five games after their 61-45 loss at Arkansas on Tuesday as a 7.5-point underdog. South Carolina (5-6) has won two of their last three games with their 72-66 upset win at Florida as an 8.5-point underdog on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS PLUS THE POINTS: Mississippi State made only 30.6% of their shots on Tuesday which was the worst shooting effort in their last 18 games going back to their opening game of the season on November 25th. Head coach Ben Howland’s team should respond with a strong effort this afternoon — they are 39-19-1 ATS in their last 59 games after a straight-up loss including covering the point spread in 15 of their last 19 games after a loss. The Bulldogs have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a double-digit loss to a conference rival — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a loss by at least 15 points. Additionally, Mississippi State has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a loss on the road. And in their last 12 games after a loss to an SEC opponent, the Bulldogs have responded to cover the point spread 10 times. Howland’s team plays consistently well on the defensive end of the court — they have held their last three opponents to just 37.0% or worse shooting. They have held their last five opponents to just 39.9% shooting which has resulted in only 63.6 PPG. This strong defense travels — Mississippi State has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 road games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Their game with the Razorbacks finished well below the 144 point total — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total. Furthermore, the Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after not scoring more than 60 points — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not scoring more than 55 points. Mississippi State should get plenty of second-chance scoring opportunities — they rank 6th in the nation by pulling down 36.8% of their missed shots. The Gamecocks are vulnerable in this area as they rank 11th in the SEC with a 33.2% defensive rebounding rate — and they allow their opponents to pull down 30.7% of their misses overall which is 264th in the nation. South Carolina may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. They return home where they have played only four times this season — and they make only 42.2% of their shots at home. The Gamecocks have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 30 of their last 48 home games with the Total set in the 140 to 144.5 point range — including four of these last six situations. And in their last 47 home games when favored by 3 points or less, South Carolina has failed to cover the point spread 31 times.
FINAL TAKE: Head coach Frank Martin’s team also likes to crash the glass — they are 11th in the nation in offensive rebounding rate. But the Bulldogs are a better defensive rebounding team that limits their opponents to just 26.2% second-chance opportunities. Mississippi State out-rebounds their opponents by +7.7 RPG — and South Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against opponents with a +7.0 or better RPG clip. 25* CBB SEC Underdog of the Year with the Mississippi State Bulldogs (671) plus the points versus the South Carolina Gamecocks (672). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-06-21 |
West Ham United -0.25 v. Fulham |
Top |
0-0 |
Loss |
-60 |
1 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 12:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing West Ham United (200049) minus the goal-line versus Fulham (200050). THE SITUATION: West Ham (W11-D5-L6) has won seven of their last eight matches across all competitions with their 3-1 win at Aston Villa on Wednesday. Fulham (W2-D8-L11) is winless in their last 11 matches after losing at home to Leicester City on Wednesday, 2-0.
REASONS TO TAKE WEST HAM MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Hammers have been a solid team all season — but they become much better when Michail Antonio is healthy and on the pitch. Antonio was out for the last few weeks of 2020 but his return has helped propel West Ham during this recent run. Getting midfielder Jesse Lingard on loan from Manchester United always gives this team an experienced goal scorer — he found the back of the net twice in his debut with the team against the Villans. West Ham started playing much better during Project Restart this summer. Manager David Moyes’ tactical decision to move Antonio up to forward rather than attacking midfielder — a decision out of necessity at the time given injuries — has proven to be fruitful over the longer-run. The Hammers generated 1.92 expected goals (xG) against a solid defensive club in Aston Villa midweek while generating 20 shots. West Ham averages 1.60 xG this season while allowing only 1.27 expected goals (xGA). The Hammers feast on the weaker teams in the league — in their 11 matches against bottom-half of the table teams, West Ham averages 1.89 xG with a net expected goals differential of +8.07. Fulham started playing better when manager Scott Parker abandoned the aggressive pressing system that worked in the Champions League but was getting blistered in the top-flight. But while the counter-attacking approach has helped them earn more draws, they still are allowing 1.74 xGA this season — and that number rises to 1.97 xGA against teams in the top-six. Yet the change in tactics has made the Cottagers toothless in their attack. Their 17 goals are the third-fewest in the EPL. They have only scored four times in their last eleven EPL contests — and they have a 0.90 xG during that span. Fulham has registered a mere eight shots inside the six-yard box this season which is the fewest in the league. Unfortunately for Parker, they have also conceded 28 shots in the box which is the most in the EPL. Playing at home at Cottage Park has offered little help as Fulham’s 6 points are the fewest of all teams in their home park. Their seven goals scored at home is also the lowest mark in the EPL.
FINAL TAKE: West Ham won the first meeting between these two teams on November 7th in a 1-0 victory. The Hammers registered three shots inside the six-yard box while posting a healthy 1.56 xG. The Hammers are in better form now. Getting three points from the win in this one could put West Ham in the top-four in the table going into next week. 25* English Premier League NBC-TV Match of the Month with the West Ham United (200049) minus the goal-line versus Fulham (200050). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-06-21 |
NC State v. Boston College OVER 146 |
Top |
81-65 |
Push |
0 |
4 h 42 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the North Carolina State Wolfpack (605) and the Boston College Eagles (606). THE SITUATION: NC State (7-7) has lost two straight games as well as five of their last seven contests with their 65-57 loss at home to Virginia on Wednesday as a 7-point underdog. Boston College (3-10) has lost five of their last six games with their 80-70 loss at Notre Dame as a 4.5-point underdog back on January 16th.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: NC State made only 43.4% of their shots against the tough Cavaliers’ defense on Wednesday — that was the worst offensive effort in their last five games. They did get 23 points from Jericole Hellems. The junior has averaged 23.5 PPG in his last two games taking over the role as the team’s go-to scorer after the season-ending ACL injury to Devon Daniels on January 28th in the game against Wake Forest. Daniels was averaging 16.5 PPG. D.J. Funderburk also scored 9 points in 17 minutes of play after not playing in the previous game at Syracuse for an undisclosed university issue. Head coach Kevin Keatts’ team should still generate plenty of offense even without Daniels. They rank 53rd in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They generate offense from their defense — they are 15th in the nation by forcing turnovers in 23.3% of their opponent’s possessions. This is an area of weakness for the Eagles who are 188th in the country with a 19.5% turnover rate. NC State has played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after losing two in a row against conference opponents — and they have played 6 straight games on the road after losing at least three of their last four games. But defense is also an issue for Keatts’ team as they rank 14th in the ACC in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Wolfpack go back on the road where they are allowing their opponents to make 50.7% of their shots which is translating into 80.0 PPG. They have played 7 straight road games Over the Total — and they have played 11 of their last 14 road games Over the Total with the number set in the 140s. NC State has also allowed their last five opponents to shoot 52.5% from the field and 79.6 PPG. Boston College has not played in about three weeks — they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when playing with at least seven days of rest. The Eagles may be rusty with their shooting — but they are going to play at a fast pace with fresh legs. Boston College is second in the ACC in tempo — and the defensive pressure from the Wolfpack will contribute to a frenetic pace. NC State allows their opponents to make 46.8% of their shots for the season — and the Eagles have played 28 of their last 39 games Over the Total against teams with a defensive field goal percentage of 45% or higher. Boston College has played 4 straight games Over the Total after a double-digit loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after allowing at least 80 points in their last game. Defense is an issue for Jim Christian’s team as well as they rank 315th in the nation in opponent’s effective field goal percentage while allowing their opponents to make 54.3% of their shots inside the arc, 313th in the nation. The Eagles return home where their defense does not improve much as they allow their guests to generate an effective field goal percentage of 53.7%, 301st in the country, by allowing these visitors to make 52.7% of their 2-pointers and 36.9% of their 3-pointers. Boston College has played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total — and they have played 28 of their last 40 home games Over the Total with the number set at 145 to 149.5.
FINAL TAKE: NC State has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage in the 20 to 40% range. It may be sloppy — but expect a fast pace between these two teams with suspect defenses. 25* CBB ACC Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the North Carolina State Wolfpack (605) and the Boston College Eagles (606). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-05-21 |
Wizards v. Heat -6.5 |
Top |
95-122 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Miami Heat (524) minus the points versus the Washington Wizards (523). THE SITUATION: Miami (7-14) has lost two straight games as well as seven of their last eight with their 103-100 upset loss at home to Washington on Wednesday as a 9-point favorite. Washington (5-13) has won two of their last three games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HEAT MINUS THE POINTS: It has been a disastrous start to the season for the Heat who have been hit as hard as any team in the league by injuries and COVID quarantined absences. Yet head coach Erik Spoelstra’s team is slowly getting close to 100% again. Tyler Herro played his first game since returning from quarantine on Wednesday. Jimmy Butler played his third game that night after missing ten games from quarantine. Herro scored 20 points with Butler adding 19 points — so they are getting back to playing-shape again. Miami will be without Avery Bradley and Maurice Harkless still who are still injured. Bam Adebayo has been the lone bright spot for this team this season as he continued to develop his game into becoming one of the best big men in the NBA. Perhaps the Heat were due to take a step back after their surprising run to the NBA Finals in the bubble last fall. But they are a much better team than this — and it is time for this club to get back to their winning ways as they make a run to make the playoffs now that they are getting their players back. This is Miami’s final game in a six-game homestand so getting a victory tonight will be important for morale moving forward. The Heat made only 43.4% of their shots on Wednesday which was the worst shooting effort in their last four games. But this remains a team that has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after an upset loss to an NBA Southeast Division rival. That loss to the Wizards came on the heels of them getting upset on Monday at home to Charlotte — but Miami has also covered the point spread in 6 straight games after suffering two straight upset losses. Additionally, the Heat have covered the pint spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a loss to a divisional rival. And they have not only covered the point spread in 29 of their last 45 games after a straight-up loss but they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a narrow loss by 3 points or less. Washington may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after an upset win as a road underdog. The Wizards have also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after a win on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a victory against a Southeast Division opponent. Washington is also just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a point spread victory. The Wizards get Russell Westbrook back tonight after he was rested on Wednesday — but they are not likely to replicate the 40.5% shooting effort from 3-point land again tonight even with Westbrook back. Washington simply does not have a good supporting cast for Westbrook and Bradley Beal especially after Thomas Bryant suffered a season-ending ACL injury. Raul Neto has been downgraded to out tonight with a groin. The Wizards are second-to-last in Defensive Efficiency. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they are just 17-37-1 ATS in their last 55 road games against teams with a losing record at home.
FINAL TAKE: Washington has only won two of their seven games since their two-week hiatus because of their COVID outbreak. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a losing record. Look for Miami to rebound with a strong effort. 25* NBA Pre-All Star Break Southeast Division Game of the Year with the Miami Heat (524) minus the points versus the Washington Wizards (523). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-04-21 |
Washington v. Oregon State OVER 141.5 |
Top |
71-91 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Washington Huskies (745) and the Oregon State Beavers (746). THE SITUATION: Washington (3-12) had their two-game winning streak snapped on Sunday with their 77-62 upset loss at home to Washington State as a 1.5-point favorite. Oregon State (8-7) has lost their last two games with their 57-52 loss at UCLA as an 11.5-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Huskies made only 38.2% of their shots against the Cougars which was the worst shooting effort in their last four games. Washington has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a double-digit loss at home. They also have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after an upset loss to a conference rival. Additionally, the Huskies have played 5 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total after a point spread loss. The defense for head coach Mike Hopkins’ team has been the bigger issue this season — the 77 points they allowed against Washington State was actually the fewest in their last nine games. The Cougars have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after allowing at least 75 points in two straight games. Over their last five games, Washington is scoring 74.6 PPG — but they are allowing 82.4 PPG with those five opponents making 46.9% of their shots. Now this team goes back on the road where they are 0-8 this season. They allow their home hosts to make 47.1% of their shots which translates into 82.7 PPG. Hopkins is a Jim Boeheim disciple with his using the 2-3 zone defense that he has made a staple at Syracuse. Defensive rebounding is a weakness with that scheme — and the Huskies are allowing their opponents to rebound 39.1% of their missed shots which is 304th worst in the nation. But the 2-3 zone is intended to force ill-advised outside shots — yet Washington is seeing their home hosts nail 39.7% of their 3-pointers which is 343rd in the nation. The Huskies have played 7 straight games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 7 straight road games Over the Total as an underdog. Oregon State should take advantage of both these vulnerabilities. The Beavers pull down a healthy 29.0% of their shots on the offensive glass — and they make 35.4% of their 3-pointers at home. Oregon State has also played 15 of their last 23 games Over the Total after a loss to a conference rival. Furthermore, the Beavers have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after failing to score at least 60 points in their last game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after scoring no more than 55 points in their last contest. Oregon State did hold the Bruins to just 32.7% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last thirteen games. The Beavers return home where they are 7-4 while scoring 75.5 PPG. Oregon State has played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total — and they have played 8 of their last 12 home games Over the Total with the number set in the 140 to 144.5 point range. The Beavers have also played 9 of their last 13 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. Furthermore, Oregon State has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams not winning more than 40% of their games. And in their last 18 games with the Total set in the 140s, the Beavers have played 13 of these games Over the Total.
FINAL TAKE: Washington has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total against Pac-12 opponents. The Huskies allow 77.3 PPG — and Oregon State has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against teams who allow at least 77 PPG. 25* CBB Pac-12 Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Washington Huskies (745) and the Oregon State Beavers (746). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-04-21 |
Chelsea v. Tottenham Hotspur UNDER 2.5 |
Top |
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Chelsea (200033) and Tottenham (200034). THE SITUATION: Chelsea (W9-D6-L6) won their first match under new manager Thomas Tuchel on Sunday in their 2-0 victory against Burnley. Tottenham (W9-D6-L5) has lost two in a row after their 1-0 loss at Brighton and Hove Albion.
THE SITUATION: The tenor of this Chelsea team under Tuchel has been to dominate possession while staying conservative in taking chances yet suffocating their opponent’s attacking ambition. Burnley managed only one shot on Sunday — and that was only in stoppage time — while generating a mere 0.14 expected goals (xG). In their 0-0 draw with Wolverhampton, the Blues limited the Wolves to just 0.63 xG. Chelsea dominated possession in both matches controlling the ball for 66% and 67% of the time. The Blues have allowed only five combined shots in both games. Yet Chelsea is not being overly aggressive in their attack. They managed only 1.35 xG in their victory against Burnley after generating just 0.81 xG against Wolverhampton. Tottenham only managed 0.44 xG in their loss at Brighton. The Spurs’ offensive attack is toothless without Harry Kane who remains out with an ankle injury. Since leaving the match against Liverpool at halftime, Tottenham has managed only 0.48 xG in 135 minutes with just one goal, nine shots, and zero Big Chances (representing a 35% or better success rate). Manager Jose Mourinho’s tactics have quickly been exposed in the top-flight — everyone knows he wants his side to score on the occasional counter-attack with his high-skilled scoring talent like Kane. The Spurs are wilting against opponents not taking the bait in being overly aggressive. But Tottenham remains fundamentally-sound on defense. They have allowed only 21 goals which are the second-fewest in the English Premier League.
FINAL TAKE: I waited to endorse this play until Tuchel announced his lineup at 2 PM ET — he is still learning his roster and tinkering with starting XI lineups. A starting group with Christian Pulisic and Tammy Abraham and/or Oliver Giroud might have scared me off. Instead, both attack-minded players are on the bench with solid-defensive minded midfielders like Mason Mount, Mateo Kovacic, and Jorginho are on the pitch. Kai Havertz is injured for this match which takes away an offensive-oriented player. Expect Chelsea to control possession again but not be too foolish in rushing players into the attack. 25* EPL Thursday Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Chelsea (200033) and Tottenham (200034). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-03-21 |
East Tennessee State +2.5 v. Mercer |
Top |
70-64 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the East Tennessee State Buccaneers (677) plus the points versus the Mercer Bears (678). THE SITUATION: East Tennessee State (9-6) had their four-game winning streak snapped on Monday with their 67-62 loss at Wofford as a 2-point underdog. Mercer (10-6) has lost their last two games after their 72-69 loss at Wofford on Saturday as a 4-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS PLUS THE POINTS: East Tennessee State should bounce-back with a strong effort. The Buccaneers have covered the point spread in 8 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread loss. East Tennessee State has also covered the point spread in 24 of their last 33 games on the road after a loss to a conference rival. They allowed Wofford to make 51% of their shots which was their worst defensive effort of the season. Yet the Buccaneers allowed The Citadel to shoot 53.8% from the field in their previous game which was their worst defensive effort — but they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after allowing their last two opponents to make at least 50% of their shots. East Tennessee State has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after winning at least three of their last four games. The stay on the road where they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 road games with the Total set in the 140s. They also have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 road games against teams who are winning at least 60% of their home games. Mercer has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a point spread cover where they lost the game as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 home games after a straight-up loss. The Bears return home where they are 6-1 this season — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on their home court. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home against teams not winning more than 40% of their games on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Mercer has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when favored. East Tennessee State has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. 25* CBB Southern Conference Underdog of the Year with the East Tennessee State Buccaneers (677) plus the points versus the Mercer Bears (678). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-03-21 |
Brighton & Hove Albion v. Liverpool UNDER 3 |
Top |
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 3:15 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Brighton and Hove Albion (200037) and Liverpool (200038). THE SITUATION: Brighton (W4-D9-L8) is unbeaten in their last four matches across all competitions after their 1-0 win against Tottenham on Sunday. Liverpool (W11-D7-L3) has won their last two matches with their 3-1 win against West Ham on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Brighton has registered three straight clean sheets as they are playing outstanding defense right now. They held the Spurs to just 0.44 expected goals (xG) over the weekend. The Seagulls have allowed 29 goals this season — but they are fifth-best in the English Premier League with 24.70 expected goals allowed. But they have only scored 21 times in their 23 EPL matches.
|
02-02-21 |
Southampton v. Manchester United UNDER 3.25 |
Top |
0-9 |
Loss |
-108 |
2 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 3:15 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Southampton (200025) and Manchester United (200026). THE SITUATION: Southampton (W8-D5-L7) has lost three straight games in the English Premier League after their 1-0 loss to Aston Villa on Saturday. Manchester United (W12-D5-L4) comes off a 0-0 draw at Arsenal on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Southampton attack has stalled as they have only one goal in their last three matches along with just three goals in their last eight contests. Perhaps the cause for this decline was simply the Regression Gods finally visiting the Saints after the summer and then fall in the new season where their scoring numbers were exceeding their underlying numbers. Southampton has scored 27 times this season but their expected goals (xG) fall to just 21.14. The Saints average just 1.11 xG per match which is sixth-worst in the EPL. Their non-penalty kick xG is only 1.03. And in their nine road matches in league play, Southampton has an xG of 8.43 as compared to their 12 goals scores which suggest they have been overachieving from their 1.33 goals-per-game road mark. The Southampton defense has been solid — they limited a potent Aston Villa attack over the weekend to just 0.77 xG. For the season, the Saints allow 1.33 expected goals (xGA). Manchester United is in a scoring slump of their own with just three goals in their last four matches. Marcus Rashford is out-of-form — he has managed only six shots inside the box in his last seven matches. But the Red Devils’ defensive effort remains consistent. They limited Arsenal to just 0.90 xG on Saturday with the Gunners’ best scoring chance only registering a 9% chance of success. Man United has allowed 15 goals in their 10 home matches — but their xGA drops to 12.46. Yet the Red Devils generate 0.30 fewer expected goals when playing at home at Old Trafford.
FINAL TAKE: Southampton has seen 13 of their 20 EPL matches this season generate two combined goals or less. Man United has played seven straight EPL matches with no more than three combined goals scored — and four of those matches saw less than three combined goals scored. 25* EPL Tuesday NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Southampton (200025) and Manchester United (200026). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-01-21 |
Valparaiso v. Evansville UNDER 127 |
Top |
51-58 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 52 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Valparaiso Crusaders (863) and the Evansville Purple Aces (864). THE SITUATION: Valparaiso (6-10) saw their three-game winning streak snapped yesterday with their 70-52 loss at Evansville as a 1-point underdog. Evansville (7-8) ended a three-game losing streak with the victory.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Crusaders allowed the Purple Aces to nail 60.4% of their shots from the field which was their worst defensive effort of the season. Valparaiso holds their home hosts to just 42.6% shooting — so they should play better on the defensive end of the court. The Crusaders have played 12 of their last 14 games Under the Total after allowing their last opponent to make at least 55% of their shots. Valparaiso also made 47.5% of their shots in that game which was their best field goal percentage in their last nine contests. The Crusaders are 10th in the Missouri Valley Conference in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. While they score 67.9 PPG on the season with a 41.2% field goal percentage, they have averaged just 64.2 PPG along with a 38.9% field goal percentage in their last five games. Valparaiso's scoring average drops to 63.0 PPG along with a 40.8% shooting percentage in their nine road games. They have played 5 straight road games Under the Total — and they have played 6 straight road games Under the Total with a winning record at home. They also have played 6 straight road games Under the Total as an underdog. Additionally, the Crusaders have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a loss — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a loss by at least 15 points. They also have played 28 of their last 37 games Under the Total after a loss on the road where they did not score at least 60 points. Evansville enjoyed their best shooting effort of the season yesterday — and it was only the second time all season where they shot better than 48.9% of their shots. The Purple Aces make only 42.0% of their shots. Evansville has also allowed their last four opponents to make at least 47.5% of their shots — and they have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after allowing their last three opponents to make at last 47% of their shots. The Purple Aces have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. And while this is their second game since January 17th, they have played 4 straight Unders when playing their second game in eight days. They stay at home where they hold their opponents to 62.2 PPG which is -6.1 PPG below their season average. Evansville has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 10 of their last 12 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage at 40% or less on the road. The Purple Aces have also played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total as a favorite.
FINAL TAKE: Despite both these teams overachieving with their shooting yesterday, that result still finished below the 126.5 Total. There were only 59 possessions for both teams in that game. If the tempo is similar to that again tonight, this game should finish well below the number. Valparaiso has played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total after when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* CBB Missouri Valley Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Valparaiso Crusaders (863) and the Evansville Purple Aces (864). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-31-21 |
Jazz v. Nuggets +1.5 |
Top |
117-128 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 3:35 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Denver Nuggets (518) plus the point(s) versus the Utah Jazz (517). THE SITUATION: Denver (11-8) had their five-game winning streak snapped on Friday with their 119-109 upset loss at San Antonio as a 4-point favorite. Utah (15-4) has won and covered the point spread in eleven straight games after their 120-101 victory at home against Dallas as a 4-point favorite on Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE NUGGETS PLUS THE POINT(S): After a 1-4 start to the season, Denver has been quite good by winning ten of their next fourteen games. They went into the 4th quarter in San Antonio with a lead before collapsing in those final 12 minutes. It would have been quite an accomplishment to sweep that five-game road trip. Now the Nuggets return home for the first time since January 19th — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games after being on the road for at least seven days. Denver allowed the Spurs to make 54.3% of their shots from the field which was the worst defensive effort in their last eight games. Defensive has been the Achilles’ heel for this team under head coach Michael Malone — but they have been a top-ten unit in defensive efficiency since their 1-4 start. They have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a point spread loss. The Nuggets have covered the point spread in five of their last six games (and six of their last eight) — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after covering the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. Nikola Jokic has been a double-double machine with nineteen straight games with at least 10 points and 10 rebounds. Garry Harris has stepped up with a 46.5% shooting clip from 3-point range over his last nine games. Denver has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games with the total set in the 210s. Utah held the struggling Mavericks to just 43.0% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last six games. The Jazz now go back on the road after playing their last six games at home. Seven of their last games during their winning streak were at home — and two of those four road games were at lowly Detroit and Cleveland. Utah is just 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games against teams with a winning record. The Jazz are also banged up with Donovan Mitchell and Derrick Favors missing the last two games with a concussion and back issues. Head coach Quin Snyder has received some good efforts from role players stepping up — but the challenge rises playing on the road against a perennial Western Conference playoff team.
FINAL TAKE: Denver will have revenge on their minds after losing at home to Utah by a 109-105 score as a 1.5-point home underdog on January 17th — and the Nuggets have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when avenging a loss at home. 25* NBA Underdog of the Month with the Denver Nuggets (518) plus the point(s) versus the Utah Jazz (517). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-31-21 |
Tottenham Hotspur v. Brighton & Hove Albion UNDER 2.5 |
Top |
0-1 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 2:15 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Tottenham (200177) and Brighton and Hove Albion (200178). THE SITUATION: Tottenham (W9-D6-L4) comes off a 3-1 loss at home to Liverpool on Thursday. Brighton (W3-D9-L8) last played on Wednesday when they settled for a 0-0 draw at home against Fulham.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Spurs’ attack was toothless in that important match against Liverpool — they managed only three shots and their expected goals mark was a meager 0.11 xG. Now this team will be without Harry Kane today (confirmed with their lineup announcement at 1:15 PM ET) — he has scored or assisted in 24 of Tottenham’s 34 goals this season. As it is, the Spurs were overachieving in their goal-scoring this season with their 34 goals scored betrayed by their expected goals mark of just 28.73 xG. They go back on the road where they have scored 19 times — but their 13.09 xG is a big dropoff that is bottom-ten in the EPL. Manager Jose Mourinho plays a cautious style of play that relies on the elite ball-striking efficiency of Kane and midfielder Son Heung-min. Tottenham’s defensive efforts remain elite — they lead the EPL with the fewest Big Chances (35% or better statistical success rate) when playing on the road. Brighton is underachieving relative to their expected goals numbers. While they are in 17th place with 18 points, their 31.57 expected Points would place them in the middle of the table. This team is the opposite of the Spurs — they create plenty of scoring chances but they lack the elite offensive players who take advantage of these opportunities with skilled shots on target. They have scored only 22 goals in their 20 matches — and they have just 10 goals in their ten matches at home at AmEx Stadium. The Seagulls are tough to score on. While they have surrendered 29 goals, their expected goals allowed drops to 24.33. This team was getting mediocre play out of goalkeeper Mat Ryan who was responsible for some soft goals. Robert Sanchez has been much better since taking over midseason — and he has two straight clean sheets. Brighton ranks second in the EPL in expected goals allowed (xGA), non-penalty kick xGA, and Big Chances allowed when playing at home.
FINAL TAKE: The Spurs won the reverse fixture between these two teams on November 1st by a 2-1 score. Tottenham generated 2.00 xG in that match with Ryan rather than Sanchez the Seagulls’ keeper — but Kane accounted for 1.36 of that xG himself. 25* English Premier League Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Tottenham (200177) and Brighton and Hove Albion (200178). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-30-21 |
Pistons v. Warriors -4.5 |
Top |
91-118 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 57 m |
Show
|
At 10:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Golden State Warriors (514) minus the points versus the Detroit Pistons (513). THE SITUATION: Golden State (10-9) has lost three of their last five games after their 114-93 loss at Phoenix as a 4.5-point underdog on Thursday. Detroit (5-14) has won two of their last three games with their 107-92 upset victory against the Los Angeles Lakers on Thursday as a 7-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WARRIORS MINUS THE POINTS: The Pistons held the Lakers to just 40.9% shooting in what was the best defensive effort in their last four games. Detroit caught LA coasting on a long road trip — but not it is them who went on the road in the first game of a five-game west coast swing. The Pistons are due for a letdown — they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after an upset win as a home underdog getting at least 6 points. Detroit is also 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after a double-digit win — and they are just 7-15-2 ATS in their last 24 games after a straight-up victory. They go back on the road where they are just 1-7 this season with an average losing margin of -6.5 PPG. The Pistons are allowing their home hosts to shoot 50.7% from the field which is translating into 119.0 PPG. Detroit is just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 road games — and they are 5-13-1 ATS in their last 19 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. The Pistons have also failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 31 road games against a team with the Total set at 220 or higher. Golden State made only 38.4% of their shots on Thursday which was tied for the worst shooting effort in their last 17 games. The Warriors have rebounded to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games when playing with one day of rest. Golden State returns home where they are 7-4 while scoring 115.2 PPG and making 46.7% of their shots — and they play much better defense at home where they limit their guests to 42.4% shooting. The Warriors have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight home games against teams not winning more than 40% of their games on the road. Golden State has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games this season with the total set at 220 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: Detroit may have the worst roster in the league but they play hard almost every night. But this is a point spread around 5 points — and the Warriors have taken care of business against the bottom of the league as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or less. Golden State won in Detroit on December 29th by a 116-106 score — and the Pistons have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games when avenging a loss at home. 25* NBA Game of the Month with the Golden State Warriors (514) minus the points versus the Detroit Pistons (513). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-30-21 |
California v. Arizona OVER 137.5 |
Top |
50-71 |
Loss |
-115 |
2 h 55 m |
Show
|
At 5:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the California Golden Bears (687) and the Arizona Wildcats (688). THE SITUATION: California (7-11) has lost three straight games with their 72-68 loss at Arizona State as a 9.5-point underdog on Thursday. Arizona (12-4) saw their three-game winning streak end on Thursday in a 73-64 loss to Stanford as a 9-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Golden Bears made only 39.3% of their shots which was their worst shooting effort in their last six games. Cal did get their leading scorer back in that game against the Sun Devils with Matt Bradley scoring 26 points with 10 rebounds. The Golden Bears have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. And while that game finished Over the 135 point total, Cal has then played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after playing an Over. The Bears stay on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total. Cal scores a healthy 73.4 PPG on 47.6% shooting on the road. But their defense has been a mess playing away from home — they have an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 56.4% with their opponents making 42.6% of their 3-pointers when they are playing on the road, ranking 298th and 333rd in the nation. The Golden Bears have played 4 straight road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Cal has also played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total with the number set in the 130s. Arizona has played 5 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. The Wildcats have also played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after an upset loss at home against a Pac-12 foe. Arizona made only 41.5% of their shots which was their lowest field goal percentage in their last five games. The Wildcats rank 16th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — so they should shoot better this afternoon. But this is a tired basketball team playing their second game in three days and fourth in the last nine days. Injuries are not helping matters — they lost a rotation player with Jemarl Baker’s season-ending injury and Bennedict Mathurin played 25 minutes off the bench while scoring 10 points after suffering a right ankle sprain on Monday. Fatigue will impact the Wildcats’ effort on defense and likely lead to them fouling more. Arizona allowed the Cardinal to shoot 49.1% from the field in what was their worst defensive effort in five games. The Wildcats have played 4 straight Overs when playing their second game in three days. They stay at home where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total as a favorite — and they have played 8 of their last 9 home games with the Total set in the 130s. They score 76.8 PPG at home — and in their last five games, Arizona is scoring 80.4 PPG on 48.4% shooting.
FINAL TAKE: The Wildcats have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total as a favorite. California has played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. 25* CBB Pac-12 Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the California Golden Bears (687) and the Arizona Wildcats (688). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-30-21 |
Newcastle United v. Everton -1 |
Top |
2-0 |
Loss |
-100 |
0 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Everton (200150) minus the goal-line versus Newcastle United (200149). THE SITUATION: Everton (W10-D3-L5) enters this match off a 1-1 draw at home against Leicester City on Wednesday. Newcastle United (W5-D4-L11) has lost five straight matches in the English Premier League with their 2-1 loss at Leeds United on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE EVERTON MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Toffees have won five of their last eight matches in EPL play with only one loss over that span. This side has stepped on the defensive end of the pitch where they are allowing just 1.20 expected goals (xGA) in those last eight matches. Manager Carlo Ancelotti has overseen this stretch despite dealing with a host of injuries since the fall. But now his starting XI is back near full strength with his big four of Dominic Calvert-Lewin, James Rodriguez, Richarlison, and Lucas Digne all healthy again. When these four have all started together in six matches this season, Everton has scored 17 goals with a 2.8 goals-per-game average. They now host a slumping Newcastle side with a manager in Steve Bruce who is sitting on a red-hot hot seat. The Magpies are allowing 1.68 xGA this season despite playing a 4-4-2 formation which basically has eight players parking the bus in the back. Over their last four matches, Newcastle is last in expected goals allowed. The Magpies are only averaging 1.03 expected goals per match as well. Their play has particularly suffered away from St. James where they are second-to-last in expected goals differential. Newcastle has lost six of their ten matches on the road. They have the second-worst xGA away from home. And they have not scored in their last 385 minutes on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Everton should have plenty of energy having taken a two-week hiatus because of a COVID outbreak earlier this month. With two matches in hand, the Toffees can make a big run up the table. Everton will also have revenge on their minds after losing the reverse fixture at Newcastle, 2-1, on November 1st. 25* EPL NBC Sports Network Match of the Month with Everton (200150) minus the goal-line versus Newcastle United (200149). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-29-21 |
Manhattan v. St. Peter's -8 |
Top |
55-59 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 52 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Saint Peter’s Peacocks (870) minus the points versus the Manhattan Jaspers (869). THE SITUATION: Saint Peter’s (7-6) has lost three of their last four games after their 47-40 loss at Siena on Saturday as a 4-point underdog. Manhattan (5-4) has won three straight games in a row — all upset victories — after their 58-55 win against Niagara as a 1.5-point underdog back on January 16th.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PEACOCKS MINUS THE POINTS: Saint Peter’s made only 26.8% of their shots which was the lowest field goal percentage for them all season. They only scored 18 points in the first half as well — but they have then covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after not scoring more than 25 points in the first half of their last game. The Peacocks have also covered the point spread in 26 of their last 43 games after not making more than 33% of their shots in their last game. They also made only 4 of their 8 free throws in that game — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after not making more than 53% of their free throws in their last game. Shooting the basketball is not the strength of head coach Shaheen Holloway’s team. But he has his group ferocious defense — Saint Peter’s ranks fifth in the nation by holding their opponents to just 41.2% shooting inside the arc. The Peacocks’ also force turnovers in 22.1% of their opponent’s possessions which is 40th in the country. The Jaspers are loose with the basketball — they turn the ball over in 22.0% of their possessions, 304th in the nation. Saint Peter’s should get plenty of easy scoring chances tonight. They should play better as they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after losing three of their last four games. Now after playing their last seven games on the road, they return home for just the fourth time all season. The Peacocks are 3-0 on their home court while holding their guests to just 36.9% shooting and only 57.0 PPG. Saint Peter’s has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games on their home court — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games at home when favored. Manhattan will likely be rusty having not played in two weeks — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 28 games after not playing for at least seven days. The Jaspers made 41.7% of their shots in that game which was the shooting effort in their last seven contests. Manhattan has won four of their last five games with two straight upset wins against Niagara precedent by an upset victory against Quinnipiac — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning four or five of their last six games. They have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after playing their last two at home as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after pulling off upsets in two straight games as a home dog. Now they go back on the road for just the fourth time this season. In their three road games, they have made only 32.8% of their shots. The Jaspers rank just 347th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. Manhattan has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: The Jaspers have not played much of a schedule yet this season — Niagara was the best team they have played so far this season with them ranking 237th in the nation according to the metrics by Ken Pomeroy. Manhattan has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. Saint Peter’s ranks 164th by Pomeroy. Holloway deploys a deep bench that has ten players who average more than 10 minutes-per-game. The Peacocks have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games against teams with a losing record. 25* CBB Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Game of the Month with the Saint Peter’s Peacocks (870) minus the points versus the Manhattan Jaspers (869). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-28-21 |
Weber State v. Idaho OVER 145 |
Top |
81-56 |
Loss |
-115 |
2 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Weber State Wildcats (755) and the Idaho Vandals (756). THE SITUATION: Weber State (7-4) had their four-game winning streak snapped on Saturday in their 77-72 loss at Southern Utah in a pick ‘em contest. Idaho (0-11) remained winless back on January 16th in their last game which ended in a 75-61 loss to Northern Colorado as an 8.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Wildcats made only 39.4% of their shots which was their lowest field goal percentage in their last eight games. Weber State can shoot the basketball (per usual) — this year, they rank 40th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 54.2%. They have played 14 of their last 19 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread setback. Additionally, the Wildcats have played 6 straight Overs after a loss by six points or less. Over their last five games, Weber State is scoring 90.2 PPG while nailing 53.3% of their shots. They stay on the road where they are allowing their home hosts to score 74.8 PPG. The Wildcats have 7 of their last 9 road games Over the Total against teams who are not winning more than 40% of their games at home. Weber State has also played a decisive 41 of their last 60 road games Over the Total when favored. Idaho has played 22 of their last 32 home games Over the Total after playing their last game at home as an underdog. The Vandals had made at least 50.9% of their shots in three straight games before running into Northern Colorado who held them to 54 points on 39.6% shooting in their first meeting on January 14th before making only 42% of their shots two days later the last time they were on the court. Idaho has played 14 of their last 19 games Over the Total after not scoring more than 65 points in two straight games. Head coach Zac Claus will likely want his team passing more after they dished out just 10 and 6 assists respectively in those last two games. The Vandals have played 11 of their last 17 games Over the Total after not assisting on more than 12 baskets in two straight games. Those two games finished Under the Total — but Idaho has played 8 of their last 13 games Over the Total after playing at least two straight Unders. Defense is an issue for this team — they have the nation’s 333rd worst Adjusted Defensive Efficiency number which worsens to a 334th mark in the nation when they are playing at home. Their visitors nail 44.2% of their shots from 3-point land when playing at home.
FINAL TAKE: Idaho has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. Weber State has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total as a double-digit favorite. 25* CBB Big Sky Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Weber State Wildcats (755) and the Idaho Vandals (756). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-27-21 |
Creighton v. Seton Hall +2 |
Top |
85-81 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Seton Hall Pirates (670) plus the points versus the Creighton Bluejays (669). THE SITUATION: Seton Hall (9-6) has lost two of their last three games with their 76074 loss at Villanova as a 9-point underdog last Tuesday. Creighton (11-4) snapped a two-game losing streak on Saturday in their 74-66 win against UConn as a 7.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PIRATES PLUS THE POINTS: The Pirates have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread win. And while their game with the Wildcats flew Over the 140 point total, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Seton Hall returns home where they are 5-1 with an average winning margin of +13.3 PPG. They are scoring 77.3 PPG at home while making 47.6% of their shots. They are also holding their opponents to just 39.9% shooting on their home court. The Pirates have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on their home court — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games with the Total set at 145 to 149.5. Additionally, Seton Hall has covered the point spread in 23 of their last 33 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 home games when getting the points. The Pirates have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Creighton has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games are a win against a conference rival. And with their contest against the Huskies going Over the 135.5 point total, the Bluejays have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Now Creighton goes back on the road where they are 3-2 this season. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games on the road when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games when favored by up to 4 points. The Bluejays have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: Seton Hall is looking to avenge an 89-53 loss to Creighton on January 6th. The Bluejays nailed 59.6% of their shots in that game including making 13 of their 24 shots from downtown. But Creighton played at home in that game where they make 37.1% of their 3-pointers while ranking 7th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. Yet the Bluejays make only 34.9% of their 3-pointers away from home, 109th in the nation, while dropping to 55th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. The Pirates have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss. 25* CBB Wednesday FS1-TV Game of the Month with the Seton Hall Pirates (670) plus the points versus the Creighton Bluejays (669). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-27-21 |
Leicester v. Everton UNDER 2.5 |
Top |
1-1 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 3:15 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Leicester City (200141) and Everton (200142). THE SITUATION: Leicester City (W12-D2-L5) has won three matches in a row in the English Premier League with their 2-0 win against Chelsea on January 19th. Everton (W10-D2-L5) plays their first EPL match since January 12th when they defeated Wolverhampton on the road by a 2-1 score.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Leicester City will be without their top attacker in Jamie Vardy who is out a few weeks with a hernia injury. Vardy averages 0.76 expected goals per 90 minutes. The Foxes' recent success has coincided with the return of attacking midfielder James Maddison to the pitch — but he plays better when he can complement Vardy. Manager Brendan Rodgers will continue to lean on the outstanding play of his team on defense. They held Chelsea to just 0.69 expected goals (xG) — and they have registered two straight clean sheets in the EPL. Since December 20th, Leicester City has an expected goals allowed mark that is third-best in the EPL. Getting holding midfielder Wilfred Ndidi healthy again has been vital — the Foxes have not allowed an opponent to register even 1.0 xG since his return to the pitch. In their last six EPL matches, Leicester City has an xGA of 0.85. Everton will be rested for this match although they did play an FA Cup match on Sunday in a 3-0 victory against Sheffield Wednesday. But manager Carlo Ancelotti will have a group that has not been overworked. The Toffees are playing great defensively as well — they have held their last six opponents to just 1.20 xGA per match. Everton has not allowed more than one goal in eight straight EPL matches — and they have given up just five combined goals over that span. The Toffees have seen two or fewer combined goals in six of their last eight EPL contests. The offense has struggled with just 0.60 expected goals per match in their last four EPL games. They have overachieved with five goals scored from just 2.4 xG during that span. They do have forward Dominic Calvert-Lewin back after he has been out — but this remains a team that is playing more cautiously on the pitch than they were earlier in the season.
FINAL TAKE: Everton won the reverse fixture between these two teams on December 26th with a 2-0 victory. Expect another lower-scoring match. 25* English Premier League Wednesday Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Leicester City (200141) and Everton (200142). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-27-21 |
Wolverhampton Wanderers v. Chelsea -0.75 |
Top |
0-0 |
Loss |
-121 |
0 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Chelsea (200126) minus the goal-line versus Wolverhampton (200125). Chelsea (W8-D5-L6) has suffered five losses in their last eight EPL matches with their 2-0 loss at Leicester City last Tuesday. Wolverhampton (W6-D4-L9) is winless in their last six EPL matches after their 3-2 loss at home to West Brom.
REASONS TO TAKE CHELSEA MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The dreary loss to the Foxes was the final straw for Chelsea management as they sacked manager, Frank Lampard. I expect an immediate bounce. Lampard was the golden boy in the organization as a player without big-time managerial experience. He seemed like a good fit when hired last year because he could help develop the younger players on the roster — an important consideration given the transfer ban last year. But once that transfer ban was lifted, the franchise brought-in a bunch of high-priced players that changed the expectations with this team. Lampard was finicky with his starting lineups and tactics on the pitch — and his perhaps stoic demeanor came across as arrogant. Players grew tired of his shtick — and he eventually lost the proverbial locker room. In comes new manager Thomas Tuchel who has immediate cache as the former manager of PSG and Borussia Dortmund. The German manager should be able to instantly connect with the struggling Timo Werner and Kai Havertz who have struggled in their transition to the EPL (and with who Lampard had no connection). Tuchel is more of a player’s manager with reports that he has already reached out to every member of the team. He is also expected to deploy a 3-5-2 formation with Werner in the box rather than playing the wing — I love it because Werner is ultimately a poacher. The “Tuchel Bounce” is legit — his teams at Borussia Dortmund won their first 11 matches after his appointment while his PSG team won their first 14 matches once he took over. Talent is not the issue with this team — while they are in 8th place, their expected Points using the expected goals metric places them third in the EPL. The Blues have the second-best expected goals allowed mark in the league. I expect an immediate improvement with stick-in-the-mud Lampard gone. Wolverhampton is struggling with four losses in their last six matches. This group misses striker Raul Jimenez who is out with a head injury for months. The organization signed Willian Jose on loan from Real Sociedad to offer them a substitute attacker — but he has still not received his work permit. The team is also without their talented young attacking midfielder in Daniel Podence who is out with an injury. Manager Nuno Espirito Santo has seemed to abandon his tight defensive formation for a more open styled to help create offense without Jimenez — but this has ruined the defensive cohesion of his team. The loss to West Brom is humiliating (as we saw yesterday in the Baggies’ 5-0 loss to Man City, Wolverhampton scoring twice should have been the canary in the coal mine to avoid that Under). The Wolves surrendered an xGA of 2.58 against toothless West Brom. Brighton registered 2.56 xG against Wolverhampton on January 2nd three EPL matches ago.
FINAL TAKE: It should be easy for Tuchel to get his team motivated to play this Wolves team that just upset Chelsea on December 12th by a 2-1 score. The Blues dominated the match in terms of expected goals — they registered 1.61 xG with Wolverhampton countering with just 0.63 xG — but the Wolves on the match in the 96th minute in a goal Neto. Revenge, Redemption — and the opportunity to Scapegoat past struggles on the departed manager — the Trinity of Motivation! 25* English Premier League Wednesday Match of the Month with Chelsea (200126) minus the goal-line versus Wolverhampton (200125). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-26-21 |
Butler v. Connecticut -5 |
Top |
51-63 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Connecticut Huskies (634) minus the points versus the Butler Bulldogs (633). THE SITUATION: UConn (7-3) has lost two games in a row with their 74-66 loss at Creighton on Saturday as a 7.5-point underdog. Butler (5-7) has won two straight games after they upset DePaul on the road last Tuesday as a 2-point underdog by a 67-53 score.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HUSKIES MINUS THE POINTS: UConn lost their previous game to St. John’s on January 18th before the loss to the Bluejays — and they have rebounded to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after losing two in a two to Big East opponents. The Huskies have also covered the point spread in 23 of their last 35 games when playing just their second game in eight days. Head coach Dan Hurley’s team may have played their worst game of the season Saturday. They made only 36.5% of their shots which was their lowest shooting percentage in their last six games. They also allowed Creighton to make 51.1% of their shots which was their worst defensive effort in the last nine games. UConn has not covered the point spread in two straight games — but they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after not covering the point spread in their previous two games. They return home where they are scoring 79.4 PPG — and they are limiting their guests to just 41.9% shooting from the field. The Huskies have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when favored — and they are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 games against teams with a losing record. Butler did play their best game of the season against the Blue Demons — their 50.0% field goal percentage was a season-high and their 33.3% opponent’s field goal percentage was a season-best as well. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in their last two games after they upset Creighton by a 70-66 score as a 7-point underdog in their previous game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after covering the point spread in their last two games. They stay on the road where they are 1-5 with an average losing margin of -8.2 PPG. They allow their home hosts to make 47.1% of their shots. Butler has failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games on the road after playing a game on the road. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games as an underdog in the 3.5 to 6 point range. Additionally, the Bulldogs are just 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%.
FINAL TAKE: Butler will be looking to avenge a 72-60 loss at home to UConn on January 9th as a 1.5-point underdog. The Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 33 of their last 51 when attempting to avenge a loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss. 25* CBB Tuesday FS1-TV Game of the Month with the Connecticut Huskies (634) minus the points versus the Butler Bulldogs (633). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-26-21 |
Manchester City v. West Bromwich Albion UNDER 3 |
Top |
5-0 |
Loss |
-100 |
2 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 3:15 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between Manchester City (200117) and West Brom Albion (20018). THE SITUATION: Manchester City (W11-D5-L2) returns to English Premier League action after defeating Aston Villa last Wednesday by a 2-0 score. West Brom (W2-D5-L12) looks to rebound from their 2-1 loss at West Ham last Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Man City has developed into a defensive juggernaut this season. They have ten clean sheets this season in the EPL including three straight. Manager Pep Guardiola has reeled-in his pressing system this season which has put less pressure on his backline. The Cityzens surrendered too many Big Chances (representing an expected goal percentage of 35% or better) last season — so perhaps a tweak in tactics was needed. Not having the services of his best striker, Sergio Aguero, might have played a role as well. Aguero has returned from the leg injury that had him on the shelf — but his positive COVID test keeps him unavailable for this match. Guardiola may have also foreseen the need to not press as much given the condensed schedule given the late start to the season after needing the summer to complete the 2019-20 campaign because of the global pandemic. Legs are shot for many of these players — so asking them to engage in ambitious pressing may exacerbate the fitness problem. Man City has also made some nice additions to their defense including signing Ruben Dias. Since his arrival, the Cityzens are allowing just 0.52 expected goals (xGA) in their last ten EPL games while conceding only twice. And while their attacking numbers have improved, Man City has scored only ten goals in their eight road matches in the EPL. They had played six straight road matches where they did not score more than one goal before their 3-1 win at Chelsea on January 3rd. The Cityzens have played their last three EPL matches at home. They last played on Saturday in the FA Cup when they rallied from a 1-0 hole to overwhelm Cheltenham Town, 3-1. Unfortunately for Guardiola, he had to rely on his key players late in the match rather than resting them for this league contest. West Brom is a mess on both ends of the pitch — but they are likely to continue the defensive tactics they employed in the reverse fixture between these two sides on December 15th which ended in a 1-1 draw at the Etihad. The Baggies host this rematch at the Hawthornes where they have scored just five times in their nine matches. West Brom has been blanked in three straight home matches in league play as well as five of their last seven. They are last in the EPL in expected goals from their attack. They will likely get blanked again by this stout Man City defense. The issue is how many goals will the Cityzens bag?
FINAL TAKE: Man City will be without their glue in the middle of the field in Kevin DeBruyne who is out for four weeks with a hamstring injury. DeBruyne may be the best player in the world 40 yards away from the goal — he is the glue that holds this Man City attack in place. The Cityzens have Gabriel Jesus back — but the attacker is more of a poacher who thrives in reacting to the actions of players like DeBruyne. Raheem Sterling will lead the attack but his form has not been top-notch. I suspect 2-0 is more likely of a result than 4-0 (and beyond) — and we can live with a push if the result is 3-0 (or 2-1). 25* English Premier League Tuesday NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between Manchester City (200117) and West Brom Albion (20018). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-25-21 |
Celtics v. Bulls +4.5 |
Top |
119-103 |
Loss |
-113 |
5 h 51 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Chicago Bulls (516) plus the points versus the Boston Celtics (515). THE SITUATION: Chicago (7-9) had their three-game winning streak snapped on Saturday with their 101-90 loss at home against the Los Angeles Lakers as a 9.5-point underdog. Boston (9-6) ended their three-game losing streak yesterday with their 141-103 thrashing of Cleveland at home as a 6-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLS PLUS THE POINTS: Chicago shot only 39.3% from the field against the Lakers which their lowest field goal percentage in their last 14 games — and their 90 points scored was a season-low. The Bulls should respond with a big effort as they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss. Chicago has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread defeat. And in their last 9 games playing with one day of rest, the Bulls have covered the point spread in all 9 games. Chicago is starting to find a rhythm under first-year head coach Billy Donovan. They had averaged 121.7 PPG in their three-game winning streak. They are making 47.5% of their shots in the Donovan offense — and they rank 9th in Offensive Efficiency in the league over their last ten games. They will be without Wendell Carter who is doubtful with a thigh injury while Otto Porter may get the night off for rest. But they will have Zach LaVine who is thriving under Donovan’s system by scoring 26.8 PPG — and second-year pro Coby White is developing into a nice compliment. There is a good vibe with this team who is becoming competitive every night. The Bulls have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games as an underdog. Boston made 55.9% of their shots yesterday which was the best shooting effort in their last eight games — and the 40% field goal percentage they limited the Cavaliers to was tied for a season-low for them so far this season. Yet the Celtics have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a double-digit victory. This Boston team has been uninspiring this season — they rank just 17th in the NBA in Defensive Efficiency. They lost an important piece in the offseason with Gordon Hayward signing with Charlotte. They added Tristan Thompson — but he has been a disappointment and may be past his prime. Rookie Payton Pritchard has been a nice surprise to how quickly he has acclimated to the NBA — but he is out with a knee injury. Romeo Langford is also questionable with a knee. Head coach Brad Stevens does expect Jayson Tatum to return to the court after COVID quarantine — and who knows if he will have rust. But Stevens is using his return to give Kemba Walker the night off — and he is a vital piece to the equation in their Big Three since his 3-point shooting makes things easier for Tatum and Jaylon Brown. The Celtics go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight road games when favored.
FINAL TAKE: The Bulls have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games in expected high-scoring games with the total set at 220 or higher — and the Celtics have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games with the Over/Under at 220 or higher. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Underdog of the Month with the Chicago Bulls (516) plus the points versus the Boston Celtics (515). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-24-21 |
Bills v. Chiefs UNDER 55 |
Top |
24-38 |
Loss |
-110 |
12 h 55 m |
Show
|
At 6:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (313) and the Kansas City Chiefs (314). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (15-3) reached the AFC Championship Game with their 17-3 win against Baltimore last Saturday as a 2.5-point favorite. Kansas City (15-2) advanced to their opportunity to defend their Super Bowl championship last Sunday with their 22-17 win against Cleveland as a 7.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Quarterback Patrick Mahomes cleared the concussion protocol on Friday but there is still the issue of the turf toe in his left foot. While Mahomes has said it feels better, this is an injury that needs a few weeks to heal — and numbing drugs can only do so much. Mahomes will not be at 100% — and his mobility will be limited. As it is, Kansas City has transformed into more of a ball-control offense in the second half of the season. In Mahomes’ last five starts (which excludes Week 17) since the Chiefs’ 35-31 win against Las Vegas, they are scoring only 25.5 PPG while not scoring more than 33 points during that stretch. Head coach Andy Reid is letting the clock burn when Mahomes is on the field in what appears to me to be an attempt to keep his defense fresh. This has helped the defense put up better numbers in the second half of the season. Kansas City has held these last six opponents (excluding the Chargers in Week 17 since Mahomes did not play) to 345.7 Yards-Per-Game with five of those opponents not gaining more than 367 yards. While not elite numbers, this approach is leading to lower-scoring games. Cleveland managed only 308 total yards last week against the Chiefs’ defense. The Bills score 30.3 PPG — but Kansas City has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams who score at least 29 PPG. And while the Chiefs gained 438 yards last week, they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Tellingly, Kansas City has also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Additionally, there is the issue of the sputtering KC offense in the Red Zone. Since Week 12, the Chiefs possess just the 26th most effective Red Zone offense in scoring touchdowns. This is not a good sign when facing this Bills’ defense that has had the best Red Zone defense since Week 12. These two teams played on October 19th with Kansas City winning by a 26-17 score. Despite the final result, Buffalo head coach Sean McDermott is likely to consider the defensive game plan a success. Defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier did not blitz at all in that game. The Bills’ begged Mahomes to hand off the football — and he did 46 times which resulted in 245 rushing yards. Yet KC scored a field goal below their season average. Given their improved Red Zone defense since that game, McDermott is likely to dare Mahomes to hand the ball off again while giving him the short passing game but not letting him burn the defense from the mismatches that ensue from using linebackers as pass rushers. Other defenses began copying this defensive approach which has also played a role in Kansas City’s declining offensive numbers in the second half of the season. This Buffalo defense will healthier in this rematch with linebacker Matt Milano playing in this game amongst others. Getting back to full strength helped the Bills’ defense rank sixth in the NFL since Week Seven using the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders. Buffalo held the Ravens last week to just 340 yards. Yet Buffalo managed only 220 yards on their own while benefiting from their 100-yard interception return for a touchdown — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after not gaining more than 250 yards in their last game. The Bills’ first 20 plays from scrimmage were pass plays for Josh Allen — and that 21st play was a broken pass play that Allen then rushed for positive yardage. Buffalo runs the ball only 30% of the time in their offensive plays in the first half. I expect this playscript to change in this game against the suspect Chiefs’ run defense that ranks as the sixth-worst in the NFL using DVOA. The Bills’ attention to run the ball a bit more will also help them burn time off the clock to limit the offensive possessions Mahomes will enjoy. The Under is 9-2-1 in Buffalo’s last 12 road games against teams with a winning record on the road. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in January.
FINAL TAKE: The Bills have played 30 of their last 42 road games Under the Total as an underdog — and Kansas City has played 4 of the last 5 home games Under the Total as a favorite. 25* AFC Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (313) and the Kansas City Chiefs (314). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-24-21 |
Bucs v. Packers -3 |
Top |
31-26 |
Loss |
-120 |
111 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 3:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Green Bay Packers (312) minus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (311). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (14-3) has won seven games in a row after their 32-18 victory over the Los Angeles Rams last Saturday as a 9.5-point favorite. Tampa Bay (13-5) has won six games in a row with their 30-20 upset win at New Orleans as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PACKERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Buccaneers are playing the best football of their season right now which is just how head coach Bruce Arians and quarterback Tom Brady planned. However, this is a very challenging situation for them to travel up to Lambeau Field under their recent circumstances. They overcame a huge obstacle in upsetting the Saints on the road after they had lost the previous two times against this season by a combined 72-26 score. They also benefited from a +4 net turnover margin on Sunday. They are not likely to be so fortunate against a Packers team that has a +6 net turnover margin this season and that has only turned the ball over 12 times all year. Green Bay has committed only two turnovers in their last seven games — and Aaron Rodgers has just five interceptions all season. Part of head coach Matt LaFleur’s system is to ask Rodgers to do less in the passing game. It is working. And Tampa Bay is now playing their third straight game away from home which adds to the stress and complications of their situation. The Bucs have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after playing their last two games away from home. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 35 games after pulling off an upset win. Additionally, Tampa Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games this season after winning five or six of their last seven games. The Buccaneers are also surviving high-scoring games with at least 50 combined points scored in five straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after playing at least three straight games where at least 50 combined points were scored. We had Tampa Bay last week — but did so understanding that the Bucs had a 1-5 record against teams that made the playoffs (during the regular season). Every other team playing in the divisional round had registered at least four victories against teams that made the playoffs. Tampa Bay’s six-game winning streak came against Atlanta (twice), Detroit, Minnesota, and then Washington and New Orleans in the playoffs. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 road games as an underdog getting up to 7 points. Green Bay will be very comfortable in this situation being led by Rodgers. They dominated the Rams by a 484 to 244 margin in yards — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. The Packers have also covered the point spread in 5 straight games at home against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 playoff games at home. And in their last 10 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points, Green Bay has covered the point spread in 7 of these games.
FINAL TAKE: The Packers will retain a significant home-field edge — not only in not traveling this week and playing in front of a loud crowd (as were the reports last week) even if not at full capacity at Lambeau Field last week. Yet the biggest edge for Green Bay in this game is that they will be very comfortable in playing in the cold weather. The Packers have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games in January — and Tampa Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games in January. 25* NFC Game of the Year with the Green Bay Packers (312) minus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (311). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-23-21 |
UC-Santa Barbara v. CS-Northridge +12 |
Top |
80-66 |
Loss |
-109 |
1 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the CS-Northridge Matadors (756) plus the points versus the UC-Santa Barbara Gauchos (755). THE SITUATION: CS-Northridge (5-5) looks to bounce-back from an embarrassing 105-58 loss home to the Gauchos yesterday as a 9.5-point underdog. UC-Santa Barbara (8-3) has won five games in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MATADORS PLUS THE POINTS: I almost pulled the trigger on CS-Northridge yesterday but could not get confirmation on the status of their leading scorer, T.J. Starks, who is listed as questionable after not playing in their previous game at CS-Fullerton which ended in a 85-77 loss last Sunday. Thankfully, we avoided that train wreck as the Matadors (not Mustangs, Frank) allowed UC-Santa Barbara to make 60.9% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort of the season. CS-Northridge also only made 36.7% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last three games. But the silver lining is that Starks returned to action and scored 29 points. The Texas A&M transfer just needs help tonight — and look for head coach Mike Gottfried to coax a much better effort from his team. The Matadors have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, CS-Northridge has covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a home loss to a Big West opponent — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a loss by at least 20 points. The Matadors have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on their home court — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games as an underdog. CS-Northridge has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. UC-Santa Barbara enjoyed their best shooting night of the season with that 60.9% clip. And by holding the Matadors to 36.7% shooting, that was the Gauchos’ second-best defensive effort in their last nine games. But UC-Santa Barbara has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a win on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a double-digit win on the road. The Gauchos have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 95 points in their last game. UC-Santa Barbara has still failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road (with last night being the exception) — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 road games when laying 9.5 to 12 points.
FINAL TAKE: CS-Northridge has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 home games when avenging a loss by at least 20 points — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 20 games when avenging a loss where they allowed at least 75 points. 25* CBB Big West Underdog of the Month with the CS-Northridge Matadors (756) plus the points versus the UC-Santa Barbara Gauchos (755). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-23-21 |
Newcastle United v. Aston Villa -1 |
Top |
0-2 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Aston Villa (200106) minus the goal-line versus Newcastle United (200107). THE SITUATION: Aston Villa (W8-D2-L6) has lost three matches in a row after their 2-0 loss at Manchester City on Wednesday. Newcastle United (W5-D4-L9) has also lost three in a row after their 3-0 loss at Arsenal on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE ASTON VILLA MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Villans have endured a difficult schedule as of late with matches against Liverpool and Manchester United along with their most recent match against Man City. They also had to play Man City on the road after not having played since New Year’s Day given COVID cancellations so rust was an issue. Yet they stayed competitive with the Cityzens with that match scoreless until the 79th minute. Aston Villa had been on a five-match unbeaten streak with three victories before this recent stretch. The Villans are a dynamic attacking team that averages 15.6 shots-per-match along with 1.81 non-penalty kick Big Chances per match and 1.81 non-penalty kick expected goals (xG) per contest. Aston Villa is fifth in the EPL in xG. They are also underperforming at home in Villa Park this season. While they have 10 points from their W3-D1-L3 mark at home, their expected points (xPTS) using expected goals rise to 13.67. Newcastle is a mess that is winless in their last nine matches. Manager Steve Bruce moved away from his uber-conservative 5-4-1 system to a 4-4-2 against Arsenal on Monday to generate more offense — but they only managed four shots and 0.19 xG against the Gunners. The Magpies have been blanked in six of their last seven matches across all competitions (and four of their last five in the EPL). And while the five defensive backs are supposed to stymie opposing attacks, Newcastle still has the fifth worse expected goals allowed (xGA) in the league — and the 1.90 xGA they surrender on the road is the third-highest mark in the EPL. Yet playing with one less defender last week against the middling Arsenal attack, the Magpies have an xGA of 2.41 while allowing 20 shots and those three goals. Aston Villa has thrived in generating pressure in deep-lying opponents like Newcastle. In home matches against similar defensive schemes against Sheffield United, Burnley, and Crystal Palace, the Villans generated 17, 29, and 22 shots. And in home matches against quality opponents Southampton and Liverpool, Aston Villa had 18 and 19 shots — and they scored seven goals against the reigning EPL champs in Liverpool. The Magpies allow 15.3 shots-per-match which is the second-most in the EPL. They have allowed 23 shots against Tottenham, 21 shots against Man United, 28 shots against Leeds United, and 20 shots on Monday against Arsenal.
FINAL TAKE: Aston Villa will have plenty of scoring opportunities in this match. The Villans have won four of their last six EPL matches and six of their last eight matches across all competitions by at least three goals — so if they win this match, it will likely be by more than one goal. 25* English Premier League Match of the Month with the Aston Villa (200106) minus the goal-line versus Newcastle United (200107). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-23-21 |
Eastern Washington -4 v. Northern Colorado |
Top |
82-76 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 2:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Eastern Washington Eagles (633) minus the points versus Northern Colorado Bears (634). THE SITUATION: Eastern Washington (3-6) has lost two games in a row after their 78-76 upset loss at Northern Colorado on Thursday as a 2.5-point favorite. Northern Colorado (8-6) has won three games in a row after that victory.
REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES MINUS THE POINTS: Eastern Washington should avenge that upset loss this afternoon. The Eagles are 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. Eastern Washington has also covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games when playing with one day of rest — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games on the road playing their second game in three days. This will be an ornery group after suffering two straight upset losses after getting upset against Southern Utah last Saturday by a 99-94 score as a 5-point favorite. The Eagles are the reigning Big Sky champions who have two of the best players in the conference in Kim Aiken and preseason conference MVP Jacob Davison. This team embraced a very challenging non-conference schedule to begin the season with 3-point losses to Arizona and Washington State along with a 5-point loss to Saint Mary’s. But this team needs a conference win now. They allowed the Bears to make 46% of their shots which was the second-worst defensive effort of the season — after allowing Southern Utah to make 56.1% of their shots last Saturday — so a better defensive effort is likely. The Eagles have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after losing two games in a row to Big Sky rivals. Eastern Washington has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. The Eagles have also covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games against teams with a winning record. Northern Colorado has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after upsetting a conference rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 after an upset win at home. And while the Bears have covered the point spread in three straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after covering the point spread in three straight games. They host this game again but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home. Northern Colorado has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a losing record on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 6 points.
FINAL TAKE: Eastern Washington has covered the point spread in 37 of their last 57 games when avenging an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when motivated by same-season revenge. 25* CBB Big Sky Conference Game of the Month with the Eastern Washington Eagles (633) minus the points versus Northern Colorado Bears (634). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-22-21 |
Mavs v. Spurs +3 |
Top |
122-117 |
Loss |
-115 |
4 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 8:35 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the San Antonio Spurs (546) plus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (545). THE SITUATION: San Antonio (8-7) saw their two-game winning streak snapped on Wednesday in their 121-99 loss at Golden State as a 1-point underdog. Dallas (7-7) ended their three-game losing streak on Wednesday in their 124-112 victory at Indiana as a 2-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SPURS PLUS THE POINTS: San Antonio may be coming off their worst game of the season. They shot only 37.2% from the field which was their lowest field goal percentage of the year. They also allowed the Warriors to nail 50.5% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last nine games. The Spurs have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, San Antonio has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a double-digit loss. The Spurs have played four of their seven losses within 7 points — they are playing close games in their defeats. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 home games as an underdog getting up to 6 points. Dallas made 52.6% of their shots on Wednesday which was not only their best shooting effort of the season but the first time all year where they made at least 50% of their shots. They also held the Pacers to just 44.6% of their shots in what was the best defensive effort in their last four games. But the Mavericks have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games after a win on the road by double-digits. Dallas does have Kristaps Porzingis back on the court after he was out to begin the season — he scored 27 points while adding 12 rebounds on Wednesday. But head coach Rick Carlisle is still dealing with a depleted roster given COVID protocols. The team will once again be without Josh Richardson, Maxi Kleber, Dorian Finney-Smith, and Dwight Powell tonight as they remain in quarantine. The Mavericks have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% at home. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games as a favorite.
FINAL TAKE: San Antonio has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in expected close games where they are listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 25 home games when listed in that +/- 3-point range. 25* NBA Southwest Division Game of the Month with the San Antonio Spurs (546) plus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (545). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-22-21 |
Troy State v. Coastal Carolina UNDER 138.5 |
Top |
81-90 |
Loss |
-108 |
2 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 6:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Troy Trojans (837) and the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (838). THE SITUATION: Troy (6-7) has lost three games in a row with their 63-56 loss at Georgia Southern as a 6-point underdog on Saturday. Coastal Carolina (9-3) saw their two-game winning streak snapped on Saturday in their 71-68 loss a Georgia State as a 7-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Trojans made 48.9% of their shots against the Eagles which was much higher than the 37.7% shooting percentage they are saddled with in their ten road games. They are scoring only 56.8 PPG on the road. Troy has played 6 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Their game with Georgia Southern still finished Under the 128.5 point total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing their last game Under the Total. The Trojans are playing better on defense as of late as they have held their last five opponents to just 40.3% shooting which is resulting in just 62.2 PPG. They stay on the road where they have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total — and they have played 35 of their last 52 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Troy has also played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total as an underdog overall. Coastal Carolina has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a loss where they covered the point spread as an underdog. The Chanticleers have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread win. And while they have still won five of their last seven games, Coastal Carolina has then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after winning five or six of their last seven games. This is a team that was playing at a faster pace in their soft non-conference schedule — six of their first eight games saw at least 75 possessions for both teams. The Chanticleers have not seen more than 72 possessions for both teams in their last four games. They started Sun Belt Conference play in their last five games — they are scoring 74.4 PPG with a 41.8% shooting percentage which is a big dropoff from their 87.1 PPG scoring average along with a 49.2% shooting percentage overall which includes those seven non-conference games. Additionally, Coastal Carolina has played 8 of their last 11 home games Under the Total with the number set in the 135 to 139.5 point range.
FINAL TAKE: The Under is 4-0-1 in the Chanticleers’ last 5 games against teams with a losing record. Troy has played 6 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. 25* CBB Sun Belt Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Troy Trojans (837) and the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (838). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-21-21 |
UCLA v. California OVER 132.5 |
Top |
61-57 |
Loss |
-100 |
2 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the UCLA Bruins (763) and the California Golden Bears (764). THE SITUATION: UCLA (11-2) has won six games in a row with their 81-76 win against Washington on Saturday as a 14.5-point favorite. California (7-8) has won two of their last three games with their 72-63 win at Utah as a 12-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bruins made only 41.4% of their shots against the Huskies in what was the worst shooting effort in their last six games. Mick Cronin has adapted his talent at UCLA to construct this team to be quite different than the grinding-defensive units he had at Cincinnati. This Bruins’ team ranks 10th in the nation adjusted offensive efficiency. They crash the offensive glass still by pulling down 33.3% of their missed shots (46th in the nation). They are also making 38.6% of their 3-pointers which is 29th in the country — and that mark has improved to a 44.6% clip in conference play. The Golden Bears struggle to defend the perimeter — they are allowing their opponents to make 40.4% of their 3-pointers, 334th in the nation. Yet Cronin’s team ranks 119th in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency after allowing Washington to make 51.7% of their shots. UCLA has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a win at home — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a win against a Pac-12 rival. Cronin lost one of his best players in Chris Smith to a season-ending injury — but he still has five other players averaging double-digits per game. The Bruins are scoring 79.8 PPG in their last five games on 47.1% shooting from the field. Now they go back on the road where they are scoring 79.4 PPG — but they are allowing 79.8 PPG. UCLA has played 4 straight road games Over the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total against teams winning at least 60% of their games at home. The Bruins have also played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total when favored. California has played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a win against a conference opponent — and they have played 7 straight games Over the Total after an upset victory against a Pac-12 foe. The Golden Bears are playing with Matt Bradley — but head coach Mark Fox’s team has found an offensive rhythm without him. Not only have they won two of their last three games after he suffered his ankle injury but they scored 50 points in the second half in their upset victory against the Utes. Cal also held Utah to just 41.2% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last seven games. Yet the Golden Bears have allowed their last five opponents to make 47.6% of their shots for a 74.8 PPG scoring mark — and their Pac-12 opponents are making 48.6% of their shots against them. Cal ranks 10th in the conference in adjusted defensive efficiency. They return home where the Over is 18-7-1 in their last 26 games — and they have played 5 of their last 6 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. The Golden Bears have also played 6 straight games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 5 straight games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams played on December 6th with the Bruins winning at home by a 76-56 score as a 9-point favorite. California has played 16 of their last 22 games Over the Total when avenging a double-digit loss. 25* CBB Thursday ESPNU Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the UCLA Bruins (763) and the California Golden Bears (764). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-21-21 |
Burnley v. Liverpool UNDER 3 |
Top |
1-0 |
Win
|
102 |
2 h 49 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Burnley (200101) and Liverpool (200102). THE SITUATION: Burnley (W4-D4-L9) has lost two straight games after their 1-0 loss at West Ham on Saturday. Liverpool (W9-D7-L2) is winless in their last four matches in the English Premier League after their 0-0 draw with Manchester United last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Liverpool offensive attack has stalled. They have not scored in their last three league matches — and they have scored just once in their last four EPL matches. They have a mere 6.36 expected goals (xG) in their last four matches. What is going on? Two things. First, manager Jurgen Klopp has his team playing less aggressively in the press since the injury to center back Virgil Van Dijk. The Reds have a strong expected goals allowed mark of 1.10 since Van Dijk’s injury. Liverpool has allowed only three goals in their last six matches with three clean sheets — so Klopp’s adjustment has been effective in tightening things up for them after experiencing some vulnerabilities in the back. But it has taken a toll on the potency of their attack. Second, the Reds’ attackers are not in form. Mo Salah is in a slump. He is averaging only 0.36 non-penalty kick expected goals per match this season — and he has not registered even one shot inside the six-yard box. It has been a very busy schedule for these players with the late start of the season — fatigue is an issue. And don’t discount the possibility that Salah’s positive COVID test did not take a toll on his health and stamina. COVID clearly had a negative impact on the Cleveland Brown’s Myles Garrett who saw his elite play decline when he turned to action. Sadio Mane has not been in his top form either while Roberto Firmino has been in decline for over a calendar year. In their last four matches, they are averaging 1.34 xG per match which is well below the 2.07 xG they averaged in their first 14 games. The slide has been taking place before the festive schedule as well. In their last nine EPL matches, the Reds are averaging 1.56 xG per 95 minutes which is a sharp decline from the 2.53 xG they had before that. Burnley has played four straight matches with 1-0 final results. The Clarets have seen no more than two combined goals scored in seven of their last eight matches. Burnley plays a compact defensive system that makes it difficult for opponents to penetrate. They have allowed only five goals in their last eight matches across all competitions including limiting the powerful Man United attack to just 1.41 xG. In their last seven league matches since their embarrassing 5-0 loss at Man City, the Clarets have not allowed more than one goal in a match while registering three clean sheets. But this focus on defense makes the Burnley attack toothless. The Clarets have scored only nine times this season which is the fewest in the EPL — and their 13.88 xG is second-to-last. They have been blanked in their last two matches after registering a mere 0.44 xG against West Ham on Saturday.
FINAL TAKE: Liverpool does get center back Joel Matip back for this match — and that will allow Klopp to move Jordan Henderson back to the middle field position where he is one of the best holding midfielders in the world. This development makes the Reds defensive cohesion even better. These two teams played to a 1-1 draw when they played at Anfield last year when the Liverpool attack was in better form. Expect a lower-scoring match. 25* EPL Thursday NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Burnley (200101) and Liverpool (200102). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-20-21 |
Manchester United -1 v. Fulham |
Top |
2-1 |
Push |
0 |
2 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 3:15 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Manchester United (200091) minus the goal-line versus Fulham (200092). THE SITUATION: Manchester United (W11-D4-L3) enters this match coming off a 0-0 draw at Liverpool on Sunday. Fulham (W2-D6-L9) suffered their first loss in six English Premier League matches on Saturday in their 1-0 loss at home to Chelsea.
REASONS TO TAKE MANCHESTER UNITED MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Cottagers have been settling from several draws as of late — they are now winless in their last seven EPL matches. This team is playing more cautiously as of late with an increased emphasis on defense under manager Scott Parker. However, this has taken away any bite they had in their attack. Fulham has mustered only 1.18 expected goals (xG) since their 2-0 loss to Manchester City on December 5th — and they have scored only three goals in those last seven EPL contests. The Cottagers are second-to-last in non-penalty kick xG. Fulham has been pretty stingy at home as of late where they have allowed only two goals hosting Liverpool, Brighton, Southampton, and Chelsea. But that defensive focus has come at a cost as the Cottagers have blanked in three straight home contests. Man United has rediscovered their defensive cohesion they enjoyed in the second half of last season when they went on a great defensive run. The Red Devils have registered three straight clean sheets across all competitions — and they have four clean sheets in their last six contests in all competitions. This team has been in their best form when away from Old Trafford. They have won seven of their nine league matches in league play with two draws against top-flight sides Liverpool and Leicester City being the two exceptions. They are also scoring goals in bunches with them registering at least three goals in six of their nine league matches away from home. I would certainly consider these results as due for some regression — but they have now been doing this for a full calendar year away from home. In their last 16 EPL road matches, Man United is averaging 1.77 xG while holding their home hosts to 1.23 expected goals allowed (xGA).
FINAL TAKE: Paul Pogba seems in better spirits with his team as of late — and when he is contributing, the Red Devils starting XI becomes quite powerful. Man United tends to overwhelm inferior opponents — they have scored 25 goals in their last eight league matches against promoted sides. Their vulnerability is against counter-attacking sides — but the Cottagers are not very aggressive in taking those chances (and they do not feature great attacking talent). The Red Devils have won their last four matches at Fulham with 12 goals scored and just one conceded. 25* EPL Wednesday NBC Sports Network Match of the Month with Manchester United (200091) minus the goal-line versus Fulham (200092). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-19-21 |
Ball State v. Miami-OH +3.5 |
Top |
71-81 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 40 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Miami (OH) RedHawks (610) plus the points versus the Ball State Cardinals (609). THE SITUATION: Miami (OH) (4-4) looks to rebound from their 78-61 loss at Ohio last Tuesday as a 9-point underdog. Ball State (6-5) has won their last two games after their 78-58 win against Northern Illinois on Saturday as a 10.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE REDHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Miami allowed the Bobcats to make 57.4% of their shots last week which was their worst defensive mark of the season. The RedHawks made only 40.4% of their shots as well which was their lowest shooting percentage in their last three contests. Now having lost three of their last four games, this is a crucial game for head coach Jack Owens who is running out of time in his fourth year coaching the program. He has seen his team cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a double-digit loss to a Mid-American Conference rival. And while Miami has played their last two games Under the Total, they have then covered the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games after playing at least two straight Unders. Returning home will help where the RedHawks are 4-1 this season. Miami has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games with the Total set in the 130s. They are also 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 home games as an underdog. This team leads the MAC in protecting their defensive glass as opponents only rebound 25.0% of their missed shots. The Redhawks also force turnovers in 21.1% of their conference opponent’s possessions which is also best in the MAC. The Cardinals can struggle in this area as they are turning the ball over in 18.6% of their possessions, 6th conference play. Ball State held the Huskies to just a 34.9% shooting mark on Saturday which was their best defensive performance of the season. But the Cardinals have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games on the road after winning two games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after winning two in a row against conference opponents. And while Ball State has covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after covering the point spread in their last two games. Now this goes back on the road where they are just 3-4 this season. They have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. The Cardinals have also failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 24 road games when favored by 3.5 to 6 points.
FINAL TAKE: Miami (OH) has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. Look for this to be a close game with the RedHawks in a position to win. 25* CBB Mid-American Conference Underdog of the Month with the Miami (OH) RedHawks (610) plus the points versus the Ball State Cardinals (609). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-19-21 |
Chelsea v. Leicester |
Top |
0-2 |
Win
|
110 |
2 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 3:15 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Leicester City (200162) with the goal-line versus Chelsea (200161). THE SITUATION: Leicester City (W11-D2-L5) is unbeaten in six straight matches across all competitions after their 2-0 win against Southampton on Saturday. Chelsea (W8-D5-L5) comes off a 1-0 win at Fulham on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE LEICESTER CITY WITH THE GOAL-LINE: The Foxes as good as they have all season right now. They have scored 15 goals while conceding just four times in their last six matches. They have won three straight matches across all competitions with two clean sheets, eight goals scored and just one goal conceded. And in their last five matches in the English Premier League, Leicester City has three wins and two draws — and they have won the expected goals (xG) battle by at least +0.50 xG In four of those five contests. It is amazing what getting healthy can do for a side. The Foxes do not have the financial clout to buy a complete roster that compares to the Big Six sides like Chelsea. But their starting XI when at full strength compares favorably to almost every team in the EPL. Getting midfielders James Maddison and Wilfred Ndidi back on the pitch healthy makes a significant difference. Maddison is the team’s second-best scoring threat to Jamie Vardy — he scored the initial goal against the Saints on Saturday. His presence takes much of the pressure off Vardy. The rub with this Foxes team has been that much of their offense was dependent on penalty kicks early in the season — and relying on getting penalties is unsustainable (especially with officials not being as liberal when interpreting the handball rule as they were early on). Yet since December 22nd, Leicester City is sixth in the EPL in non-penalty kick expected goals which is a testament to the impact of Maddison’s return to action. Ndidi is one of the most underrated holding midfielders in the world. Since losing 3-0 at Liverpool on November 22nd, the Foxes have an expected goals allowed mark (xGA) of 1.03 which is third-best in the league over that span. Ndidi and Maddison are probably the team’s second and third most important players after Vardy. Chelsea is in poor form right now with a W1-D1-L2 mark in their last four matches with eight goals conceded and just four goals scored. The Blues scored the winning goal against a weak Fulham side in the 78th minute despite holding a man advantage on the pitch after the 44th minute due to a Cottagers’ red card. Injuries have impacted the Chelsea defensive structure with Ngolo Kante and Reese James ailing. Since December 20th, the Blues rank 13th in non-penalty kick xGA with opponents have too much success with passes inside their penalty box area. This vulnerability caused manager Frank Lampard to overcompensate to help his defense — but that shift in tactics has led to the Blues offensive non-penalty xG to drop to ninth since December 20th. Lampard continues to be a work-in-progress as a manager. He has yet to push the right buttons to get the most out of all the talent that the franchise has developed and purchased over the last two years. Lampard expects to get James back on the pitch from his hamstring injury — but he will still be without Kante who remains one of the top-three holding midfielders in the world.
FINAL TAKE: Vardy has been dealing with a hip injury but he should be able to play in this important game this afternoon. These are two teams moving in opposite directions in terms of form — it is nice to be able to grab the Foxes at a pick ‘em for some insurance against a draw. 25* EPL Tuesday NBC Sports Network Match of the Month with the Leicester City (200162) with the goal-line versus Chelsea (200161). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|