11-19-20 |
Cardinals v. Seahawks -3 |
Top |
21-28 |
Win
|
105 |
4 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (322) minus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (321). THE SITUATION: Seattle (6-3) has lost two straight games as well as three of their last four contests with their 23-16 loss in Los Angeles against the Rams as a 3-point underdog. Arizona (6-3) has won four of their last five games after their 32-30 win against Buffalo as a 3-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS MINUS THE POINTS: Seattle should respond with a strong effort tonight. They are a decisive 32-15-4 ATS in their last 51 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss to an NFC West opponent. They are also 12-5-2 ATS in their last 19 games after a point spread loss. Furthermore, the Seahawks have covered the point spread in 51 of their last 83 games after losing two games in a row. And while Seattle has not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after not covering the point spread in two of their last three games. Injuries have hit this team hard. I did not make a call on this game until Thursday, given the potential attrition to tonight’s roster. Cornerbacks Quinton Dunbar and Shaquille Griffin along with running back Chris Carson are not expected to play. Starting center Ethan Pocic is also out tonight as he continues in the concussion protocol — and that is significant. But head coach Pete Carroll does expect backup center Kyle Fuller to play after the high ankle sprain he suffered on Sunday. That development was essential for me to endorse the Seahawks tonight. Carroll also expects wide receiver Tyler Lockett and running back Carlos Hyde to play as well. Quarterback Russell Wilson needs to reduce his turnovers after being responsible for seven in the last two games. Seattle has lost the turnover battle in these last two games — but they have then covered the point spread in 36 of their last 55 games after having a -1 or worse net turnover margin in two straight games. The Seahawks defense is worst in the league by allowing 448.3 total YPG — but this unit has been playing better despite the losing streak. They have held their last three opponents to 386.7 YPG which is more than 60 YPG below their current season average. Safety Jamal Adams has been injured but he did return to register seven tackles with two sacks and a forced fumble against the Rams. The Seahawks have also recently acquired defensive linemen Carlos Dunlap and Snacks Harrison who should both improve the pass rush and run defense for this team. Seattle returns home where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as a favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games with the total set at 49.5 or higher. The Seahawks are also 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games in November. Arizona needed the miracle Hail Mary play from Kyler Murray to DeAndre Hopkins to steal that victory over the Bills last week. Yet the Cardinals have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games after a win at home where they did not cover the point spread. Arizona is also dealing with a host of injuries — especially on their defensive line which makes me a bit less concerned about the Seattle offensive line. Defensive end Zach Allen went on the Injured Reserve with an ankle injury — he is the fourth defensive linemen to get placed on the IR for this team. Nose tackle Corey Peters is already out the season with a knee and Pro Bowl linebacker Chandler Jones is on the IR with his biceps injury. Now defensive end Jordan Phillips has been declared out with a foot injury for tonight. This Cardinals defense has declined as of late (they really miss Jones). They are allowing 32.7 PPG over their last three games along with 417.7 YPG with all three of those opponents scoring at least 30 points. Arizona has gained at least 438 yards in five straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after gaining at least 375 yards in their last game. And while they have rushed for at least 159 yards in four straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game.
FINAL TAKE: Arizona has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games played on a Thursday night — and Seattle is 7-1-2 ATS in their last 10 games played on a Thursday night. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month with the Seattle Seahawks (322) minus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (321). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-17-20 |
Akron v. Kent State UNDER 59 |
Top |
35-69 |
Loss |
-108 |
17 h 0 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Akron Zips (301) and the Kent State Golden Flashes (302). THE SITUATION: Akron (0-2) remained winless last week with their 24-10 loss at Ohio last Tuesday as a 27.5-point underdog. Kent State (2-0) is undefeated after their 62-24 win at Bowling Green last Tuesday as a 20.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Zips may still be winless in the 14 games coached by Tom Arth in his second season with the program — but there is reason for optimism. Arth has 70 new players on the roster consisting of transfers, redshirt freshman, and true freshmen from the group that was 0-12 last year. Six starters are back on defense along with eleven of the top sixteen tacklers — and Akron limited the Bobcats last week to just 307 yards of offense. The Zips have a solid rushing attack led by junior college transfer Teon Dollard who ran the ball 22 times for 165 yards against Ohio for a robust 7.5 Yards-Per-Carry average in that game. Akron ran for 218 yards last week to improve their rushing Yards-Per-Game average to a 173.0 clip for the season. The Zips should be able to shorten the length of this game with their rushing attack — they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. Arth has a redshirt freshman under center in Zach Gibson with the team’s senior three-year starter, Kato Nelson, recovering from shoulder surgery in August. As it is, the Zips have played a decisive 39 of their last 57 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Akron has also played 27 of their last 38 games Under the Total after login two straight games against conference rivals. Now the Zips go back on the road where they have played 35 of their last 51 games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Kent State has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win by at least 20 points. The Golden Flashes have also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a game where at least 70 combined points were scored. Additionally, Kent State has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. The Golden Flashes generated 372 passing yards against the Falcons — and they have played 7 straight games Under the Total after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Kent State averaged an explosive 11.94 Yards-Per-Play for 657 total yards — yet they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after averaging at least 6.25 YPP in their last game and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after gaining at least 475 yards in their last game. The Golden Flashes return home where the Under is 11-5-1 in their last 17 games when they are favored. Kent State has excelled in their pass defense so far this season with seven sacks while holding their opponents to just 173.0 passing YPG which is the best mark in the MAC.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 8 of their last 10 meetings Under the Total. Expect a lower-scoring game. 25* CFB Tuesday ESPN Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Akron Zips (301) and the Kent State Golden Flashes (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-16-20 |
Vikings v. Bears UNDER 44 |
Top |
19-13 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 42 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (275) and the Chicago Bears (276). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (3-5) has won two games in a row after their 34-20 win at home against Detroit as a 3-point favorite last Sunday. Chicago (5-4) has lost three straight games after their 24-17 loss at Philadelphia as a 6.5-point underdog last week.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Vikings have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a victory by at least two touchdowns. Minnesota has also played a decisive 43 of their last 40 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and this includes them playing nine of their last eleven games Under the Total after reaching at least 30 points in their last game. Behind running back Delvin Cook who rushed for 206 yards on 22 carries, the Vikings put up 275 rushing yards against the Lions defense — but they have then played 16 of their last 20 games on the road Under the Total after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. Now they face this Bears’ defense that is 9th in the NFL by allowing only 101.5 rushing Yards-Per-Game when playing at home. Minnesota scores 24.1 PPG on the road while averaging 339.5 total YPG in their four road games — and those numbers are -3.1 PPG and —42.7 YPG below their season averages. The Vikings have also benefited from a +3 net turnover margin against the Lions. Yet they have played 29 of their last 59 games Under the Total including three of their last four after enjoying a +3 or better turnover margin in their last game. Minnesota is playing better on defense as of late — they have held their last two opponents to 22 and 20 points which are both season lows. The Vikings have also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total on Monday Night Football. Chicago has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on Monday Night Football. The Bears have not scored more than 23 points in six straight games. They did gain 375 yards last week against the Eagles — but they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Chicago is undermanned at the running back position right now with David Montgomery out as he goes through the concussion protocol and Tarik Cohen already out the year with his torn ACL. The Bears will rely on converted wide receiver Cordarrelle Patterson, Ryan Nall, and Artavis Pierce (along with perhaps Lamar Miller coming off their practice squad after missing all of last season with a torn ACL) as their running backs. Quarterback Nick Foles 52 pass attempts against the Eagles — and the Bears have played 14 of their last 16 games Under the Total after passing the ball at least 50 times in their last game. Chicago has also played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. They return home where they are scoring only 17.8 PPG while averaging 286.3 total YPG — but they are holding their opponents to just 19.3 PPG at Soldier Field. The Bears have played 12 of their last 15 home games Under the Total. They have also played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. It will be cold on the south side of Chicago tonight with the temperatures dropping into the low-40s — and the Bears have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total in November. Chicago has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games played in Chicago Under the Total. 25* NFC North Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (275) and the Chicago Bears (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-15-20 |
Ravens v. Patriots UNDER 44 |
Top |
17-23 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (273) and the New England Patriots (274). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (6-2) has won four of their last five games after their 24-10 win at Indianapolis last Sunday as a 1-point underdog. New England (3-5) snapped a four-game losing streak on Monday with their 30-27 victory over the New York Jets as a 9-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Ravens have played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total after an upset win by at least two touchdowns as a road underdog. Baltimore has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after winning at least two of their last three games. And while that was the first time that the Ravens have covered the point spread in their last three games, they have then played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after only covering the point spread once in their last three games. Baltimore is an excellent defensive team — they lead the NFL by allowing only 17.8 PPG. They have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Furthermore, the Ravens have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against fellow AFC opponents. And in their last 7 games played on field turf, Baltimore has played 6 of these games Under the Total. New England has played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Patriots have also played 5 straight games Under the Total when playing on a short week after an appearance on Monday Night Football. New England is scoring only 20.8 PPG which is 28th in the league — and that number drops to just 18.8 PPG while averaging jut 323.0 total YPG in their four games at home. Those are ominous numbers when considering that the Patriots have played only one top-ten defense this season — and quarterback Cam Newton managed only 98 passing yards in that game where they scored just 6 points. New England has played 4 of their last 5 game Under the Total at home — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. The Patriots have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in November.
FINAL TAKE: Weather will likely play a significant role in this game tonight. There is a 100% chance of rain with thunderstorms possible. Winds will be 9 to 18 MPH with gusts up to 47 MPH. This will negatively impact both passing games — and both Lamar Jackson and Cam Newton can struggle with their accuracy. Both defenses will likely get away with putting an extra defender in a box to stop the run given these conditions. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (273) and the New England Patriots (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-15-20 |
Chargers +2 v. Dolphins |
Top |
21-29 |
Loss |
-110 |
6 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (277) plus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (278). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (2-6) has lost two games in a row with their 31-26 loss at home to Las Vegas last Sunday as a 1-point underdog. Miami (5-3) has won four games in a row with their 34-31 upset win at Arizona as a 6-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS PLUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles lost their fifth game of the season on the final play once again last week with a dropped pass in the end zone taking victory away from head coach Anthony Lynn’s team. Everyone is banging away at Lynn this week for his game management late in the game. Perhaps some of these criticisms are valid — but this dynamic is overplayed. While I disagree with those in the analytics community that thinks winning close games is solely a function of luck, I certainly agree that winning and losing close games often is dependent on one or two plays — and often those plays experience plenty of variance regarding the random events that take place within them (like dropping a touchdown pass). The ability to consistently play close games is the more predictable variable for this Chargers team than what happens in the final moments. Los Angeles’ has had a halftime lead six times this season. All six of their losses have been by seven points or less — and all those losses were by a combined 24 points. And going back to last year, the Chargers have seen 15 of their 17 losses decided by one scoring possession. What is more consistent is yardage numbers — and LA is outgaining their opponents by +61.5 net YPG. The Chargers are getting their ground game going to complement rookie QB, Justin Herbert, as they are averaging 146 rushing YPG over their last five games. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after losing two games in a row. They also have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games on the road after a game where both teams scored at least 24 points. The Chargers outgained the Raiders last week by +120 net yards as they held them to just 320 yards of offense. LA is 9-4-2 ATS in their last 15 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. Now they go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games — and they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games away from home. Miami was outgained by -130 net yards in their upset win last week. And that accomplishment came on the heels of their upset win over the Rams the previous week where they won despite being outgained by a whopping -326 net yards! The Dolphins scored two defensive touchdowns against the Rams before returning a 36-yard fumble recovery for a touchdown last week against the Cardinals. Scoring defensive touchdowns to overcome getting outgained by more than 100 YPG is simply not sustainable. Miami is being outgained by -61.5 net YPG — and they are losing the yardage battle at home by -106.8 net YPG. The Dolphins have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 25 home games after a win by a field goal or less. And while Miami has won five of their last six games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 29 home games after winning five or six of their last seven contests. Now this team returns home where they are an ugly 22-46-1 ATS in their last 69 games as a favorite.
FINAL TAKE: The Chargers are 34-15-4 ATS in their last 53 road games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight road games as a dog getting up to 3 points. 25* NFL Underdog of the Month with the Los Angeles Chargers (277) plus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (278). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-14-20 |
Wake Forest v. North Carolina UNDER 71 |
Top |
53-59 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 49 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (149) and the North Carolina Tar Heels (150). THE SITUATION: Wake Forest (4-2) has won four games in a row with their 38-14 win at Syracuse as a 14-point favorite two weeks ago on October 31st. North Carolina (5-2) has won two of their last three games with their 56-24 win at Duke as a 10.5-point favorite last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Demon Deacons have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the total after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, Wake Forest has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a win by at least 20 points. The Demon Deacons limited the Orange to just 221 yards of offense — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. Wake Forest has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 20 points in their last contest. This team has steadily improved their play on defense this season for head coach Dave Clawson. They have held their last three opponents to just 17.7 PPG along with only 358.0 total YPG. Furthermore, the Demon Deacons have played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total as an underdog. North Carolina has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a win by at least 20 points. The Tar Heels have also played 31 of their last 47 home games Under the Total after a game where at least 60 combined points were scored. North Carolina has played three straight Overs where at least 69 combined points were scored — and their last two contests reaching at least 80 points. Yet the Tar Heels have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after playing at least three straight Overs. North Carolina has also played 22 of their last 20 games Under the Total when they played two straight games where at least 60 combined points were scored — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games when they have played three straight games where at least 60 combined points were scored. Despite these higher scoring games, the Tar Heels are playing pretty good defense when playing at home. North Carolina holds its visitors to just 24.0 PPG along with 363.0 total YPG.
FINAL TAKE: North Carolina has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total with the Total set at 63 or higher — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total with the Total set at 63 or higher. 25* CFB ACC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (149) and the North Carolina Tar Heels (150). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-13-20 |
Iowa v. Minnesota +3.5 |
Top |
35-7 |
Loss |
-103 |
4 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Minnesota Golden Gophers (128) plus the points versus the Iowa Hawkeyes (127). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (1-2) won their first game of the season last week with their 41-14 win at Illinois as a 7.5-point favorite. Iowa (1-2) also snapped a two-game losing streak to win their opening game of the season last Saturday with their 49-7 victory over Michigan State as a 5.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN GOPHERS PLUS THE POINTS: Minnesota should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread setback. Additionally, the Golden Gophers have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a win by at least 20 points — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a victory by at least three touchdowns against a Big Ten rival. The Minnesota defense played their best game of the season by holding the Illini to just 287 yards of offense. The Gophers have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. The Minnesota offense has been quite good as they are scoring 36.3 Points-Per-Game while averaging 444.3 total YPG. Running back Mo Ibrahim leads the nation by averaging 190.3 rushing YPG. They have 85 combined points in their last two games — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after scoring at least 31 points in two straight games. The Gophers return home where they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games with the Total set in the 56.5 to 63 point range. Additionally, Minnesota is 28-12-2 ATS in their last 42 games in November. Iowa may be due for an emotional letdown after they crushed the Spartans last week. The Hawkeyes have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win by at least 20 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread win. Iowa scored on a 54-yard punt return for a touchdown and then a 54-yard interception touchdown return to close out the second quarter and go into halftime with a 35-0 lead. Yet Iowa has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after owning at least a 17-point lead at halftime in their last game. The Hawkeyes have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. And in their last 6 games are not allowing more than 20 points in their last game, Iowa has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of these games.
FINAL TAKE: Minnesota will have revenge on their minds for this one as Iowa ruined their unbeaten season last year on November 16th with their 23-19 win in Iowa City as a 3.5-point favorite. The Golden Gophers have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games as an underdog under head coach P.J. Fleck. 25* CFB Big Ten Underdog of the Month with the Minnesota Golden Gophers (128) plus the points versus the Iowa Hawkeyes (127). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-12-20 |
Colts +2 v. Titans |
Top |
34-17 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 28 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Indianapolis Colts (121) plus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (122). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (5-3) saw their two-game winning streak snapped on Sunday with their 24-10 upset loss at home to Baltimore as a 1-point favorite. Tennessee (6-2) ended a two-game losing streak on Sunday with their 24-17 win against Chicago as a 6.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE COLTS MINUS (OR PLUS) THE POINT(S): Indianapolis outgained the Ravens last week by +79 net yards after holding them to just 260 total yards. Baltimore scored on a defensive touchdown from a 65-yard fumble recovery that helped to make the winning difference. Indianapolis is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a point spread loss — and they are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a double-digit loss at home. The Colts are also 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. Indy is scoring a healthy 26.0 PPG this season — and that mark has risen to a 27.3 PPG clip in their last three games with them averaging 378.3 total YPG during that span. Quarterback Philip Rivers is completing 67.9% of his passes with 2087 passing yards and a 7.6 Yards-Per-Attempt average. And while tight end Jack Doyle is out for this game as he recovers from a concussion, Rivers will get wide receiver, T.Y. Hilton, back from the groin injury that has kept him out the last few weeks. The Colts’ offensive line leads the league by allowing only eight sacks this season — and the pass rush is a weakness for the Titans. Rivers should have plenty of time to pick apart the Tennessee secondary. Indianapolis also leads the NFL by allowing only 290.0 total YPG. They go back on the road where they are outgaining their opponents by +46.7 net YPG. The Colts are also 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 games in November. Tennessee defeated the Bears last week despite getting outgained by -147 net yards. The Titans managed only 228 total yards against Chicago — and they are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after failing to gain at least 250 yards in their last game. Despite winning six of their eight games, Tennessee is getting outgained by -10.2 net YPG. The Titans have eked out five of the six games they have played that have been decided by one scoring possession. Tennessee surrendered 319 passing yards to Nick Foles last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. And while the Titans rank 7th in the league by scoring 29.0 PPG this year, they are scoring only 22.7 PPG over their last three games while averaging just 320.3 total YPG which is -63.6 net YPG below their season mark. Additionally, Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as a favorite — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against fellow AFC opponents. Furthermore, the Titans will be missing a couple of important players with both wide receiver Adam Humphries and cornerback Adoree’ Jackson out with injuries.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams split their meetings last season with the road team winning both times. The Colts have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 meetings with the Titans including covering the point spread in six of their last eight trips to Nashville to play Tennessee in their building. Indianapolis is 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 Thursday Night Football games — and the Titans have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games played on Thursday nights. 25* AFC South Game of the Month with the Indianapolis Colts (121) plus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (122). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-08-20 |
Saints v. Bucs -4 |
Top |
38-3 |
Loss |
-108 |
11 h 41 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (474) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (473). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (6-2) enters this game coming off a 25-23 win at New York against the Giants as a 13-point favorite for Monday Night Football. New Orleans (5-2) comes off a 26-23 win at Chicago in overtime last Sunday as a 5.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS MINUS THE POINTS: Tampa Bay was flat on Monday as a double-digit favorite as they were perhaps looking ahead to this NFC South showdown. The Buccaneers are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games when playing on a short week on Sunday after featuring on Monday Night Football. Tampa Bay allowed 367 yards to the Giants in the win — but they are 20-9-3 ATS in their last 32 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Bucs have one of the best defenses in the league as they are allowing only 20.6 PPG along with just 299.5 total YPG. Tampa Bay also boasts the best-run defense in the league as they hold their opponents to just 70.4 rushing YPG. They have held three opponents to under 50 rushing yards this season. This stout defense is a great combination with the Tom Brady-led offense. What is underrated about Brady is that his offenses limit turnovers. He threw two interceptions in the opening game loss in the Big Easy against the Saints — but he has thrown only two interceptions in his last six games. Furthermore, New Orleans has committed just five turnovers in their last seven games — and they have won the turnover battle in six of their last seven games. Brady is getting comfortable in the Bruce Arians offense. He is averaging 2 touchdown passes per game over his last three starts — and he is completing over 70% of his passes in his last two starts. Since Week Three, Brady has 17 touchdown passes to just one interception. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games after a win on the road by 3 points or less. Their victory over the Bears came off a 27-24 win against Carolina — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after winning their last two games by a field goal or less. And while some bettors may consider the Saints “due” because they have not covered the point spread in their last three games, New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning their last two games where they did not cover the point spread as a favorite. The Saints defense is an issue as they are allowing 28.1 PPG this season. They are just 16th in the league by allowing 237.9 passing YPG — and they ave allowed two touchdowns of more than 60 yards. Their win over the Bears flew Over the 41 point Total — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams met in Brady’s first game in a Tampa Bay uniform with the Saints winning by a 34-23 score. Brady completed only 23 of 36 passes for what is now his third-lowest completion percentage with the Buccaneers. But New Orleans managed only 82 rushing yards in that game which is their lowest output of the season. Wide receiver Michael Thomas is questionable to return to the field today after missing much of the season. The Buccaneers have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 home games when playing with revenge against a team that scored at least 28 points against them. 25* NFC South Game of the Year with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (474) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (473). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-08-20 |
Raiders v. Chargers +1 |
Top |
31-26 |
Loss |
-110 |
11 h 27 m |
Show
|
At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (468) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Las Vegas Raiders (467). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (2-5) looks to bounce back from a 31-30 loss at Denver last Sunday as a 3-point favorite. Las Vegas (4-3) has won two of their last three games after their 16-6 upset win at Cleveland as a 1-point underdog last week.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINT(S): That was the fifth game this season that Los Angeles has lost a game decided by seven points or less. All five of the Chargers’ losses have been decided by a combined 19 points. Despite winning only two of their seven games, head coach Anthony Lynn’s team is outgaining their opponents by +51.1 net YPG. They should respond with a strong effort this afternoon as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after suffering an upset loss in their last game. Additionally, the Chargers are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 9-3-2 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. The Chargers’ offense is beginning to click under rookie quarterback Justin Herbert. They are scoring 32.0 PPG while averaging 439.7 total YPG with Herbert getting his top two weapons in the passing game, wide receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, healthy and on the field together at the same time. Los Angeles has scored at least 27 points in four straight games — and they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after scoring at least 25 points in four straight contests. The Chargers are also 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog. Las Vegas has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after an upset victory — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning two of their last three contests. The Raiders held the Browns to just 223 yards last week in the weather that limited the passing attacks for both teams. But Las Vegas has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not giving up more than 14 points in their last contest. Despair their winning record, the Raiders are only outgaining their opponents by +1.7 net YPG — and they are getting outscored by -2.3 PPG. They stay on the road for a second straight week where they are just 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 road games against teams with a losing record at home. They are also just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 road games when favored. And in their last 8 games played on field turf, Las Vegas has failed to cover the point spread 6 times.
FINAL TAKE: The Chargers have had this game circled on their calendars all year after getting swept by the Raiders last year. Los Angeles lost the first meeting in Oakland by a 26-24 score before getting upset in the rematch in LA by a 24-17 score as a 7-point favorite on December 22nd. This is expected to be a high-scoring game with the Total set in the low 50s — but the Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 28 of their last 42 games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher and the Chargers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. 25* AFC West Game of the Month with the Los Angeles Chargers (468) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Las Vegas Raiders (467). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-06-20 |
BYU v. Boise State +4.5 |
Top |
51-17 |
Loss |
-112 |
5 h 2 m |
Show
|
At 9:45 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Boise State Broncos (314) plus the points versus the Brigham Young University Cougars (313). THE SITUATION: Boise State (2-0) won their second-straight game this season with their 49-30 win at Air Force last Saturday as a 13-point favorite. BYU (7-0) remained unbeaten this season last Saturday with their 41-10 victory at home against Western Kentucky as a 31.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS PLUS THE POINTS: Boise State quarterback Hank Bachmeier did not get on the plane to Air Force last week for an undisclosed reason — the Broncos did have one player who tested positive for COVID but privacy reasons preclude the release of that information (and they had another player not make the trip). Just as well, competitively, as it allowed Jack Sears to get his shot under center. The USC transfer completed 17 of 20 passes for 280 yards with three touchdown passes (no interceptions) with another 36 rushing yards with a touchdown. Boise State has not announced their starting quarterback for this game — frankly, I think Sears is better but I was prepared to still back the Broncos if Bachmeier was the confirmed starter. Put another way, if Bachmeier starts but struggles, head coach Bryan Harsin is going to turn to Sears. As it is, the Broncos have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 home games after a win by at least five touchdowns against a conference rival. Sears led an offense that generated 459 yards last week — and they are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. Boise State did allow the Falcons to gain 484 yards in that game but they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. The Broncos have only forced one turnover this season — and they have covered the point spread in 27 of their last 38 games after not forcing more than one turnover in two straight games. They return home to their blue field where they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games. They also have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games as an underdog. BYU has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a victory by at least 20 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. The Cougars have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last contest. BYU has not allowed more than 267 yards in two straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in two straight games. This is the Cougars’ best start since 2001 — but their best competition has been against middling Houston and Navy teams this season. BYU was a two-touchdown or more favorite in their other five games this season. And this remains a program that entered the season with a 14-74 straight-up record against top-25 teams since 1972. The Cougars have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games in November.
FINAL TAKE: This game does have playoff implications with BYU ranked 9th in the AP poll with Boise State ranked 21st but a potential playoff team if they go undefeated to win the Mountain West Conference. The Broncos will be looking to avenge a 28-25 upset loss at BYU last year on October 19th where they were 7-point favorites. Boise State has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games played on a Friday night. 25* CFB Friday FS1-TV Game of the Year with the Boise State Broncos (314) plus the points versus the Brigham Young University Cougars (313). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-06-20 |
Newcastle United v. Southampton UNDER 2.5 |
Top |
0-2 |
Win
|
102 |
2 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Newcastle United (200005) and Southampton (200006). THE SITUATION: Newcastle (W3-D2-L2) looks to build off their 2-1 win over Everton last Sunday in their most recent English Premier League match. Southampton (W4-D1-L2) has won four of their last five matches after they defeated Aston Villa on the road by a 4-3 score last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Newcastle does not have much of a more scoring punch — and manager Steve Bruce’s team often takes a defensive approach. The Magpies have scored only ten goals in their seven matches — and their expected goals (xG) in those contests were only 8.83. Now they go on the road where they are averaging just 0.67 xG per match for their non-penalty kick situations. Newcastle has scored four of their goals via a penalty shot which they can not rely on moving forward. The Magpies have conceded eleven goals this season as well — but their expected goals allowed (xGA) does suggest they have been a bit unfortunate with that number dropping to 10.56 xGA. Southampton has registered a clean sheet in three of their last five matches. The Saints are an underrated defensive club under manager Ralph Hasenhuttl. Southampton has conceded twelve goals this season but their xGA drops to 8.91. They have allowed five goals in their three home matches — but their xGA is just 2.73 in those matches. The Saints will be without their top scorer, Danny Ings, who is out with a knee injury that requires surgery. Ings has scored five goals this season after his breakout campaign over the summer in Project Restart. They still have Che Adams upfront — but he is not a good finisher with most of his goals being from poaching from Ings’ creativity. Southampton may have to rely on James Ward-Prowse out of the midfield.
FINAL TAKE: Look for Hasenhuttl to have his team play this match close to the vest with Ings not available. Expect a lower-scoring match. 25* EPL Friday Afternoon Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Newcastle United (200005) and Southampton (200006). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-05-20 |
Wyoming v. Colorado State +3.5 |
Top |
24-34 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Colorado State Rams (306) plus the points versus the Wyoming Cowboys (305). THE SITUATION: Colorado State (0-1) lost its opening game of the season last Thursday in their 38-17 upset loss at Fresno State as a 2.5-point favorite. Wyoming (1-1) comes off a 31-7 win at home against Hawai’i last Friday as a 2.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS PLUS THE POINTS: Colorado finally played their first game of the season last week after having their opening game with New Mexico canceled because of some COVID issues with the Lobos. The Rams also had COVID issues that kept sophomore wide receiver Dante Wright and tight end, Trey McBride, out for that game. With Warren Jackson leaving the team earlier this fall, those absences left this offense thin with their passing targets. Getting the updated COVID lists for all of these teams is simply essential before investing. Both Wright and McBride will return for this game which will make a huge difference. Wright is a speedy sophomore and McBride is a potential NFL prospect. First-year head coach Steve Addazio was frustrated with the mistakes his team made last week. Said the former Boston College head coach after the game: “We've just got to get rid of the massive amount of mistakes that we had on both sides of the ball … Blown coverages, misaligned on defense ... Then (on offense), we had a couple of ridiculous mistakes that were drive-killers … We just need to be way, way more consistent.” The biggest jumps in improvement often come after the opening game of the season — I expect a much better effort from this Rams team tonight. As it is, Colorado State has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. The Rams have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a loss by at least 20 points. And in their last 5 games after failing to score at last 20 points, Colorado State has covered the point spread in 4 of these games. They returned 15 starters from last year’s team that was only 4-8 — but they did outgain their Mountain West Conference foes by +34 Yards-Per-Game. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games. Wyoming has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after an upset victory by at least 10 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games if they come off a home game where they pulled off an upset victory by double-digits. The Cowboys only committed one turnover in that game which helped them win the turnover battle for the second-straight week — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after not turning the ball over more than once in their last game. We had Wyoming in that game in just a great situation with them returning home to host the Rainbow Warriors in very cold weather. The Cowboys have now won seven straight games at home to improve their 30-15 straight-up mark in the last forty-five games at War Memorial Stadium. But Wyoming has lost six of their last eight games away from home. Twelve starters returned from the team last year that finished 8-5 — but they lost their top three tacklers from that group. Nevada rolled up 496 yards against them in their opening game loss in Reno. Wyoming has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 road games when laying 3.5 to 7 points.
FINAL TAKE: The Cowboys have won the last four Border Wars between these two teams after last year’s 17-7 victory at home in Laramie. Look for Colorado State to be in a position to pull the upset tonight in Addazio’s second game with the team. 25* CFB Thursday CBS Sports Network Game of the Year with the Colorado State Rams (306) plus the points versus the Wyoming Cowboys (305). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-05-20 |
Packers v. 49ers UNDER 51 |
Top |
34-17 |
Push |
0 |
7 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (301) and the San Francisco 49ers (302). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (5-2) has lost two of their last three games after their 28-22 upset loss at home to Minnesota as a 5.5-point favorite on Sunday. San Francisco (4-4) saw their two-game winning streak snapped on Sunday with their 37-27 loss at Seattle as a 1-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Packers have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after winning five or six of their last seven games. Green Bay generated 400 yards against the Vikings in that loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total. Despite that haul of yardage, the Packers’ offense has slowed down significantly since playing Tampa Bay three weeks ago when defensive coordinator Todd Bowles designed a game plan of complicated stunts and disguised schemes that stymied Aaron Rodgers. Green Bay is scoring only 22.3 PPG over their last three games while averaging just 326.7 total YPG in this copycat league. The Packers also allowed Minnesota to generate only 324 yards but a 6.75 Yards-Per-Play rate — and they have played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total after allowing their last opponent to average at least 6.0 YPP. Their loss last week came on the heels of their 35-20 victory over Houston two weeks ago — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing two straight games where at least 50 points were scored. Green Bay stays on the road this week where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as a favorite. Additionally, the Packers have played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total in the second half of the season. Green Bay will not be at full strength with running backs A.J. Dillon and Jamal Williams on the COVID list. Running back Aaron Jones is also questionable with a calf injury — so he is a game-time decision. If Jones cannot play, the available running backs to the Packers’ offense is Tyler Ervin (who is mostly a pass-catching back) and Dexter Williams who would be activated off the practice squad. Those absences are minor compared to the M*A*S*H unit that is San Francisco. Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo and tight end George Kittle are out indefinitely. Running back Tevin Coleman has been downgraded to out with a knee. Wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk, left tackle Trent Williams, and wide receiver Deebo Samuel are on the COVID list. Nick Mullens will run the offense — and this will be a run-heavy game-plan against the suspect Packers run defense that is allowing their opponents to average 4.7 Yards-Per-Carry. San Francisco swept the two meetings between these two teams last year — including in the NFC Championship Game where they won by a 37-20 score. The formula for success was running the football and dominating the physical battle — and head coach Kyle Shanahan will certainly keep this same approach for this rematch. This commitment to running the football will burn time off the clock while likely reducing the number of offensive possessions for both teams — and Shanahan is disciplined to not abandon the run if his team falls behind. San Francisco has averaged 402.7 YPG over their last three games — and they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after averaging at least 400 YPG over their last three games. The Niners return home where they have played 15 of their last 22 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. San Francisco has also played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total as an underdog. Despite a host of injuries on defense headlined by the losses of Nick Bosa, Richard Sherman, and Dee Ford, the Niners are still only allowing 21.6 PPG along with 314.6 total YPG — and those numbers have dropped to 19.7 PPG and 300.7 YPG over their last three games. San Francisco has an outstanding defensive coordinator in Robert Saleh who will have certainly studied closely the Bowles’ game plan from three weeks ago.
FINAL TAKE: San Francisco has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total when playing on Thursday Night Football. Expect a lower scoring game. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (301) and the San Francisco 49ers (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-02-20 |
Leicester v. Leeds United UNDER 3 |
Top |
4-1 |
Loss |
-117 |
0 h 24 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Leicester City (200121) and Leeds United (200122). THE SITUATION: Leicester City (W4-D0-L2) has won three straight matches across all competition that includes their 1-0 win at Arsenal last Sunday in their most recent English Premier League match. Leeds United (W3-D1-L2) comes off a 3-0 win at Aston Villa in their last match two Fridays ago on October 23rd.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Leicester City defeated AEK Athens on Thursday by a 2-1 score in Europa League action. They also held Arsenal to just 0.96 expected goals in that blank sheet victory. After a dominant 5-2 win at Manchester City on September 27th, the Foxes have played five straight matches across all competitions that have not seen more than three combined goals scored. This team under Brendan Rodgers has become a bit more defensively-oriented. They have allowed only one goal in their last three matches in all competitions. In the EPL, they have allowed only 8 goals but their expected goals allowed (xGA) is just 6.97 — and that 1.20 xGA per match mark is second-best in the league. They have allowed only four non-penalty shot Big Chances this season of scoring opportunities for their opponent with at least a 35% statistical chance of scoring. But the offense has lagged. While the Foxes have scored 13 goals, their expected goals mark (xG) drops to 8.67 which suggests they have been fortunate to see those many goals scored. Leicester City has just a 0.90 xG mark per game in non-penalty kick situations. Leeds United are tied with Leicester City by allowing just four non-penalty kick Big Chances which is the third-best mark in the EPL. They have allowed 12 goals with a 1.68 xGA mark but they have played a difficult schedule which includes Man City and Liverpool. The Whites have not seen more than three combined goals in four straight matches. Their striker, Patrick Bamford, has scored six times already — but that was based on 3.4 xG which suggests he has been pretty fortunate.
FINAL TAKE: After playing two high-scoring matches against Liverpool and Fulham, manager Marcelo Bielsa, has his team playing a bit less aggressive when it comes to when his midfielders rush to join the forwards in their counter-attack. Leeds plays a unique style that has stymied the topflight competition — most of their opponents have decided to play conservatively to counter their tactics. Leicester City will likely embrace this approach and bank on a Jamie Vardy counter-attack which was how they defeated Arsenal with his goal in the 80th minute. 25* EPL Monday NBC Sports Network with Under the Total in the match between Leicester City (200121) and Leeds United (200122). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-01-20 |
Cowboys v. Eagles OVER 42.5 |
Top |
9-23 |
Loss |
-109 |
10 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (271) and the Philadelphia Eagles (272). THE SITUATION: Dallas (2-5) has lost two straight games as well as four of their last five contests with their 25-3 upset loss at Washington last week. Philadelphia (2-4-1) looks to build off their 22-21 win over the New York Giants last week as a 5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Cowboys have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a loss by at least two touchdowns. Dallas has also played 16 of their last 21 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. They will be turning to rookie Ben Dinucci under center with Andy Dalton on the shelf after suffering a concussion last week. Frankly, the 7th round pick from James Madison cannot do much worse than Dalton has for this team. He passed for over 3400 yards in his senior season taking the Dukes to the national championship game. He adds desperately needed mobility to the position that Dalton lacks — he rushed for 569 yards with seven touchdowns last season for James Madison. I expect offensive coordinator Kellen Moore to get creative with Dinucci with some designed run plays. I also expect more creativity from Moore in getting the ball in the hands of the uber-talented Dallas wide receiving corps. And I expect more from running back Ezekiel Elliott after the Cowboys managed only 83 rushing yards last week against the Football Team. Dallas has played 14 of their last 16 games Over the Total after failing to rush for at least 90 yards in their last game. The offensive line for the Cowboys is mired with injuries but they do expect guard Zack Martin to return to the starting lineup for this game. Dinucci’s mobility will make a big difference. Dallas has played two straight Unders with Dalton being their primary quarterback. The Cowboys have played 11 of their last 17 games Over the Total after a game that fished Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after playing two straight Overs. Even if Dallas struggles to score points, their defense is likely to offer the Eagles plenty of scoring opportunities. The Cowboys are last in the league by allowing 34.7 PPG — and these opponents are generating 408.1 total YPG against them this season. Philadelphia is scoring 26.3 PPG over their last three games while averaging 380.7 total YPG despite a number of injuries on offense. Quarterback Carson Wentz led an offense that gained 442 yards against the Giants last week — and the Eagles have played 5 straight games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Wentz has thrown six touchdown passes in his last three games. The Philly offense is slowly getting healthier with tackle Lane Johnson, tight end Dallas Goedert, and rookie wide receiver Jalen Reagor all expected to play tonight. And while the Eagles win over the Giants last week finished Under the 44.5 point total, they have then played 12 of their last 20 games Over the Total after playing a game that finished Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: Dallas has played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total as a double-digit underdog — and they have also played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total against fellow teams from the NFC East. With the number in the low-40s, expect a higher scoring game. 25* NFC East Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (271) and the Philadelphia Eagles (272). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-01-20 |
49ers v. Seahawks -3 |
Top |
27-37 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (270) minus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (269). THE SITUATION: Seattle (5-1) looks to rebound from their 37-34 upset loss in overtime at Arizona as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday night. San Francisco (4-3) pulled off their second-straight upset victory last week with their 33-6 victory at New England as a 3-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS MINUS THE POINTS: Seattle should respond with a strong effort as they are 32-15-4 ATS in their last 51 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by 6 points or less. The Seahawks are also 11-4-2 ATS in their last 17 games after a point spread loss. Seattle dominated time of possession having the football for over nine minutes longer than the Cardinals — and they outgained them by +53 net yards. If not for a late personal foul that kept an Arizona drive alive, the Seahawks likely win that game. Seattle went into the locker room at halftime with a 27-17 lead — that was the first game in the Pete Carroll/Russell Wilson era where they lost a game after enjoying a halftime lead of at least four points. Wilson completed 33 of 50 passes for 388 yards while adding another 84 yards on the ground. The Seahawks have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after passing for at least 300 yards in their last game. Wilson leads an offense that is tops in the NFL in both scoring 33.8 PPG and in averaging 425.2 total YPG. The Seattle defense is a weakness — and the recently acquired Carlos Dunlap will not be able to play this week given COVID restrictions for newly acquired players. But Carroll expects to get Jamal Adams back on the field after he has been out with a groin injury. The Seahawks surrendered 360 yards last week — but they have then covered the point spread in 7 straight games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. They are also 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last contest. Seattle returns home where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. And in their last 6 games in November, the Seahawks are 5-0-1 ATS. San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a win by at least two touchdowns — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 road games after not allowing more than 6 points in their last game. The 49ers are slowly getting a bit healthier — but this remains a shell of the Super Bowl team last season with Nick Bosa, Richard Sherman, Dee Ford, and Raheem Mostert all on Injured Reserve as they headline a still very long injured list. San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. They are also 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games in November. Furthermore, the Niners have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games against NFC West foes.
FINAL TAKE: San Francisco is just 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 games against the Seahawks — and they are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games in Seattle. They did upset the Seahawks on the road in the last meeting between these two teams by a 26-21 score last December 29th — but that will likely be even more motivation for Seattle to get back to their winning ways this week. 25* NFC West Game of the Year with the Seattle Seahawks (270) minus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (269). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-30-20 |
Hawaii v. Wyoming |
Top |
7-31 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 9:45 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Wyoming Cowboys (142) minus the point(s) versus the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (141). THE SITUATION: Wyoming (0-1) looks to rebound from their 37-34 upset loss at Nevada in overtime last week by a 3-point favorite. Hawai’i (1-0) comes off a 34-19 upset win at Fresno State last Saturday as a 2.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS MINUS THE POINT(S): Wyoming started slowly as they fell behind by a 28-6 margin before rallying to force overtime where they eventually failed to steal the victory. But the Cowboys have then bounced-back to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread setback. Wyoming endured sophomore quarterback Sean Chambers suffer a season-ending broken leg in the third play of this game. Chambers started the first seven games last year before suffering a season-ending knee injury. However, the Cowboys have a capable replacement in redshirt freshman Levi Williams, who led the team to 38 points as the starter last year in their 38-17 victory over Georgia State in the Arizona Bowl. Williams completed 16 of 31 passes for 227 yards while adding another 40 yards on the ground with two touchdowns in almost leading his team to the comeback win. Chambers is a run-first quarterback — Williams is the better passer while still offering running skills. Despite the loss, this is a good Wyoming team that returned over 70% of the two-deep from the team last year that finished 8-5. Many observers have commented on the lack of a home-field advantage when playing in a pandemic without crowded stadiums — but this has been a myopic view of the intangibles that offer teams a home edge. The Cowboys retain a significant home edge playing in Laramie, with it being 7220 feet above sea level. Becoming comfortable playing in a high altitude is not as easy for visiting teams — Wyoming has won 29 of their last 44 games at home on Jonah Field in War Memorial Stadium, including all six home contests last season. The Cowboys have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home — and they have also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games when favored. Hawai’i has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after an upset win by at least 10 points as a road underdog. The Rainbow Warriors ran for 323 yards in the first game under first-year head coach Todd Graham who has molded the team’s Run-and-Shoot attack with Air Raid principles and an increased emphasis on running the football. But Hawai’i has failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after rushing for at least 200 yards. Graham inherited eleven starters from last year’s team finished 10-5 with their 38-34 win over BYU in the Hawai’i Bowl. That team enjoyed four net victories in games decided by one scoring possession — so that winning record could have been flipped with some bad breaks. They did have a -11 net turnover margin last year — but they enjoyed a fortunate +3 net turnover edge against the Bulldogs last week. Now this team goes on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games with the Total set in the 56.5 to 63 point range. Additionally, the Rainbow Warriors have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 26 games against teams with a losing record — and they are just 7-16-1 ATS in their last 24 games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Graham had scheduled practice time in the Rocky Mountains this week — but seven inches of snow in Denver led to the postponement of those outdoor practices. That is not a good sign for this team from the tropics, who are just 9-24-1 ATS in their last 35 games in October. Wyoming has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games in October — and the temperature is expected to drop below the freezing level tonight. Head coach Craig Bohl will have his team ready to play against this Rainbow Warriors team that upset them last week by a 17-13 score as a 4-point underdog. 25* College Football Game of the Month with the Wyoming Cowboys (142) minus the point(s) versus the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (141). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-30-20 |
Crystal Palace v. Wolverhampton Wanderers -0.5 |
Top |
0-2 |
Win
|
109 |
0 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 4:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Wolverhampton (200146) minus the goal-line versus Crystal Palace (2000145). THE SITUATION: Wolverhampton (W3-D1-L2) looks to get back to their winning ways after settling for a 1-1 draw to Newcastle United last Sunday. Crystal Palace (W3-D1-L2) snapped a three-match winless streak with their 2-1 win at Fulham last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE WOLVERHAMPTON WITH THE GOAL-LINE: Crystal Palace benefited from facing the promoted Fulham side who may be the worst team in the premiership (pending their result on Monday with West Bromwich). The Eagles had the second-worst expected goals (xG) mark (excluding penalty kicks) along with the fewest shots in the box before that match last week. After managing just 0.14 expected goals three matches ago to Chelsea, they had zero shots in the box outside Wilfried Zaha’s penalty shot two matches ago against Brighton in a contest where they generated a Blutarski 0.0 xG mark in non-penalty kick scoring chances. Crystal Palace is playing very cautiously — but the problem is that they are still giving up plenty of scoring chances. The Eagles are third to last in the league by allowing their opponents to generate 1.80 xG. They have surrendered at least one goal in five straight EPL matches. Against a mediocre Fulham side, they allowed the second-most Big Chances (representing a scoring opportunity with at least a 38% success rate) all week. And while the win over Fulham was their second victory on the road this season after a surprising win at Manchester United last month, Palace was second-to-last in expected points (xPTS) in the EPL last season. Wolverhampton is unbeaten in their last three matches — and they were a few moments away from a three-game winning streak in the EPL before they surrendered a goal to Newcastle in the 89th minute last week. That was the only goal the Wolves have allowed in their last three league matches. Wolverhampton led the EPL with an expected goals allowed (xGA) mark of 1.08. After a slow start this season, the Wolves have stepped up their play on defense. After allowing seven Big Chances along with 29 shots in the box in their first three matches, Wolverhampton has given up only two Big Chances in their last three matches along with just 21 combined shots in the box.
FINAL TAKE: The Wolves struggled to generate scoring opportunities last week against a Newcastle side content to not control possession and simply counter-attack. Wolverhampton perhaps got too content with yet another second-half 1-0 lead after winning their last two EPL matches by 1-0 scores via a second-half goal. The Wolves should find it easier to score against this Palace defense. Let’s remember that Wolverhampton has been a top-seven team in each of the last two seasons in the EPL since its promotion three years ago. 25* EPL Friday NBC Sports Network Match of the Month with the Wolverhampton (200146) minus the goal-line versus Crystal Palace (2000145). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-29-20 |
Falcons +3 v. Panthers |
Top |
25-17 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 46 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Atlanta Falcons (101) plus the points versus the Carolina Panthers (102). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (1-6) looks to bounce back from their 23-22 upset loss at home to Detroit as a 1-point favorite on Sunday. Carolina (3-4) has lost their last two games after their 27-24 loss at New Orleans as a 7-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE FALCONS PLUS THE POINTS: Atlanta blew their third game where they had a late lead when running back Todd Gurley could not stop himself from stumbling into the end zone after getting first down inside the Lions’ 10-yard line late in that game. The touchdown gave Matthew Stafford one last opportunity to score a touchdown — which he did on the last play of the game — to steal the victory. The Falcons have suffered four upset losses this season — and they have four net close losses in games decide by one scoring possession. Yet Atlanta still has the better roster than the Panthers. And their defense has played better as of late as they have held each of their last three opponents to just 23 points. The Falcons allowed Detroit to gain 386 yards — but they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Atlanta goes back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games — and they have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games on the road as an underdog. And in their last 6 games against teams with a losing record, the Falcons have covered the point spread 5 times. Carolina was outgained by the Saints last week by -132 net yards. The Panthers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a loss by 6 points or less. All three of Carolina’s victories have been as an underdog. They return home where they are just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. Furthermore, the Panthers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a losing record. And in their last 11 games as a favorite, Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of these contests. There had been speculation that the Panthers would activate Christian McCaffrey for this game — but he remained on the Injured Reserve list this afternoon with his ankle sprain. Carolina is missing some players on their offensive line with tackle Russell Okung downgraded to doubtful with his calf injury and Michael Schofield III on the COVID list. The Panthers are also missing defensive tackle Kawan Short, defensive end Yetur Gross-Matos, and strong safety Juston Burris who are all on IR.
FINAL TAKE: Atlanta will be looking to avenge a 23-16 upset loss at home to Carolina on October 11th which was the final game for both head coach Dan Quinn and general manager Thomas Dimitroff before both were fired the next day. Wide receiver Julio Jones did not play in that game either with his hamstring injury — but he is in better health now after hauling in eight catches for 97 yards last week against the Lions. The Falcons are wavering 28.4 PPG when Jones is in the lineup. 25* NFC South Game of the Month with the Atlanta Falcons (101) plus the points versus the Carolina Panthers (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-29-20 |
South Alabama v. Georgia Southern UNDER 52.5 |
Top |
17-24 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the South Alabama Jaguars (103) and the Georgia Southern Eagles (104). THE SITUATION: South Alabama (3-2) has won two straight games against Sun Belt Conference rivals after their 38-14 win over UL-Monroe on Saturday as a 14-point favorite. Georgia Southern (3-2) looks to rebound from a 28-14 loss at Coastal Carolina a 1-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Jaguars have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after winning two in a row — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after winning their last two games against conference rivals. And while South Alabama allows 282 passing yards to the War Hawks, the Under is 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last game. Now after playing their last two games at home, the Jaguars go back on the road where they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total. South Alabama has also played 9 of their last 13 road games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total after playing their last two games at home. Additionally, the Jaguars have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total in October. Georgia Southern has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And while quarterback Shai Werts passed for only 94 passing yards last week after completing only 7 of 20 passes, the Eagles have then played 5 straight games Under the Total after not passing for more than 170 yards in their last game. Now after playing three of their last four games on the road, Georgia Southern returns home where they have played 4 straight games Under the Total as a favorite. The Eagles have also played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Georgia Southern returned their top four tacklers from last season — and they are allowing only 20.8 PPG this year.
FINAL TAKE: Georgia Southern has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total when playing on a Thursday — and the Under is 4-1-2 in South Alabama’s last 7 games played on a Thursday night. 25* CFB Thursday ESPN Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the South Alabama Jaguars (103) and the Georgia Southern Eagles (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-28-20 |
Lokomotive Leipzig +0.5 v. Manchester United |
Top |
0-5 |
Loss |
-140 |
2 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 4:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing RB Leipzig (224325) plus the goal-line versus Manchester United (224326) in Group Stage play of the UEFA Champions League. THE SITUATION: RB Leipzig defeated Istanbul Basakehir last Tuesday in Champions League action. Manchester United upset Paris Saint-Germain last Tuesday by a 2-1 score in their opening match in the Champions League.
REASONS TO TAKE RB LEIPZIG PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: Man United has been maddeningly inconsistent this season. After their surprising victory over a PSG team that lost to Bayern Munich in the Champions League finals over the summer, they then played to a listless 0-0 draw at home to Chelsea in their English Premier League match on Saturday. The deeper analytics suggest they were fortunate to get the win against PSG as they generated only 1.47 expected goals (xG) but allowed 1.59 expected goals (xGA). In their draw with the Blues, they put up a meager 0.78 xG. The Red Devils have some cohesion issues right now as they incorporate some new players they acquired from the transfer window. The enigmatic Paul Pogba is sulking. Manager Gunnar Solskjaer seems over his head at times. The attacking talent is there for this team — but their backline is another matter. Man United is W2-D1-L2 in the EPL so far this season with a bad 3-1 loss to Crystal Palace and a humiliating 6-1 loss to Tottenham on their resume. They are 17th in the league in net expected points differential. They are allowing their opponents to generate 1.98 xG. Furthermore, in their last three matches at home at Old Trafford, they are producing just 1.03 xG. RB Leipzig is not only one of the best sides in the Bundesliga but they have proven themselves on the international stage by reaching the semifinals of the Champions League over the summer where they lost to PSG. They have one of the best managers in the world in Julian Nagelsmann who has ensured his team did not miss a beat this season after losing Timo Werner to a mega-contract signing with Chelsea. Die Roten Bullen followed up their victory last week in the Champions League with a 2-1 win over Hertha Berlin whee they generated 2.70 xG while holding them to just 0.78 xG. RB Leipzig has won five of their last six matches across all competitions with a 1-1 draw with at a quality Bayer Leverkusen side in the Bundesliga representing their only blemish to that run. The Red Bulls sit atop the German top-flight table. They are averaging 2.18 xG in league play so far this season — but it is perhaps their 0.76 xGA that is more impressive given the high-scoring that takes place in the Bundesliga.
FINAL TAKE: Man United tends to play its best against teams that are aggressive in the attack. But generating offense from the counter-attack is also RB Leipzig’s bread-and-butter. Those are the teams that give Solskjaer’s team problems. A draw is likely — but don’t be surprised if the Red Bulls pull the upset with the better manager and far better team cohesion right now. 25* UEFA Champions League Underdog of the Month with RB Leipzig (224325) plus the goal-line versus Manchester United (224326). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-27-20 |
Rays +126 v. Dodgers |
Top |
1-3 |
Loss |
-100 |
7 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 8:08 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Tampa Bay Rays (961) versus the Los Angeles Dodgers (962) listing both starting pitchers Blake Snell and Tony Gonsolin in Game Six of the World Series. THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (51-28) looks to force a climactic seventh game of the World Series tonight after losing Game Five on Sunday by a 4-2 score. Los Angeles (55-22) can win the World Series tonight. The Dodgers will be the designated home team for this game being played at Globe Life Park in Arlington, Texas.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAYS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Expect this feisty Tampa Bay team to win this game as an underdog. The Rays have won 18 of their last 22 games after a loss. They also have won 14 of their last 18 games after failing to score more than two runs in their last game — and this includes them winning their last five games after not scoring three or more runs in their last contest. Additionally, Tampa Bay has won 9 of their last 13 games after an off day. They also have won 14 of their last 20 games as an underdog. They give the ball to Snell who had a 4-2 with a 3.24 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP in eleven regular-season starts. The left-hander has a 2-2 record in these playoffs with a 3.33 ERA in 24 1/3 innings while striking out 28 batters. He last pitched in Game Two on Wednesday of last week — and the Rays have won 26 of their last 37 games when Snell is pitching with five or six days of rest. He faces a Dodgers team that has lost 5 of their last 7 games against left-handed starting pitchers in Interleague play. Los Angeles counters with Gonsolin who was 2-2 with a 2.31 ERA and a 0.84 WHIP in eight starts (nine games) in the regular season. The deeper sabermetrics called for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.68 and 3.80. In this postseason, the right-hander has a 9.39 ERA along with a 1.70 WHIP in 7 2/3 innings — and his SIERA and xFIP of 5.94 and 7.10 agrees that he did not deserve much better results. The Dodgers have lost 5 of their last 8 games with Gonsolin making the start as a favorite priced up to -150.
FINAL TAKE: The Dodgers team that committed two errors on the final play of Game Five worries me. This remains a franchise that has lost 7 of their last 10 World Series games. Tampa Bay has won 5 of their last 6 playoff games when trailing in the series — and they have won 4 of their last 5 playoff games when facing elimination in the playoffs. Snell should outpitch Gonsolin to force a Game Seven on Wednesday. 25* Major League Baseball Game of the Year with the money-line on the Tampa Bay Rays (961) versus the Los Angeles Dodgers (962) listing both starting pitchers Blake Snell and Tony Gonsolin. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-26-20 |
Bears v. Rams UNDER 45 |
Top |
10-24 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 58 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (475) and the Los Angeles Rams (476). THE SITUATION: Chicago (5-1) has won two games in a row after their 23-16 upset win at Carolina as a 2-point underdog. Los Angeles (4-2) looks to bounce back from their 24-16 upset loss at San Francisco last Sunday night as a 2.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bears have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Chicago’s defense is holding its opponents to just 19.3 PPG this season. The Bears have not allowed more than 26 points all season — and they have held their last three opponents to less than 20 points. But the Chicago offense is another matter entirely. The Bears are averaging only 21.3 PPG this season — and tapping Nick Foles as their savior for a post-Mitchell Trubisky era has not solved the problem. Chicago has scored only 43 combined points in their last two games while settling for five field goals after stalled drives along the way. Foles is averaging only 5.9 Yards-Per-Pass-Attempt over his last two starts. He is not getting much help from the Bears’ rushing attack that is without running back Tarik Cohen is out the season with a torn ACL. In their two last two victories, Chicago has accumulated only 98 total rushing yards while averaging just 2.5 Yards-Per-Carry. Now this team stays on the road where they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home — and they have played 10 of their last 13 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Chicago has also played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total as an underdog overall. Furthermore, the Bears have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Los Angeles has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. The Rams surrendered 390 yards last week to the 49ers, but they have then played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Los Angeles has been playing good defense as they have held their opponents to just 19.0 PPG along with 318.5 total YPG. The Rams return home where they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when laying the points. Los Angeles has also played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total as the favorite.
FINAL TAKE: The Rams have played 6 straight games Under the Total in October — and the Bears have played 4 straight Unders in October. Chicago has also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on Monday Night Football. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (475) and the Los Angeles Rams (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-26-20 |
Tottenham Hotspur v. Burnley OVER 2.5 |
Top |
1-0 |
Loss |
-140 |
1 h 26 m |
Show
|
At 4:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Tottenham (200093) and Burnley (200094). THE SITUATION: Tottenham (W2-D2-L1) enters this match coming off a 3-3 draw against West Ham in their last English Premier League match back on October 18th. Burnley (W0-D1-L3) comes off a 0-0 draw at West Bromwich on October 19th.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Spurs have established chemistry between their talent and the tactics of manager Jose Mourinho who took over midseason last year. Tottenham lead the EPL with 15 goals (even with one less match under their belts than most of the league) — and they are second in the league by averaging 2.48 expected goals per match. Harry Kane is thriving in his #10 role on the pitch as an attacking midfielder. He has scored five times already this season. But in this position, Kane has assisted on seven goals which is very much out of character for him when he was playing the #9 role higher up the pitch. Son Heung-Min is now playing that attacker role (rather than the winger role that Mourinho relegated him to during the summer’s Project Restart). Yet the Spurs remain shaky on defense. They enjoyed a 3-0 lead against the Hammers before conceding three goals in the second half to settle with the draw. They also blew a lead by conceding a late goal versus Newcastle United. Tottenham brought in a bunch of new talent in the transfer window which has impacted their cohesion — and integrating the aging Gareth Bale into the mix does not help matters. The Spurs have allowed eight goals this season — and they are allowing their opponents to register 1.48 expected goals per game. Burnley was an outstanding defensive team during the summer with a tight backline working together combining with a hot goalkeeper in Nick Pope. It has not been the same to the start of this season as the Clarets have surrendered eight goals in four matches. Burnley has allowed Newcastle score three times against them, and Leicester City score four times against them so far this season — and they conceded three goals to Manchester City in League Cup action last month. The Clarets really miss the injured Ben Mee, who anchors that backline at center back. He will not play in this match. Burnley has only scored three times this season — but they will have to play more aggressively if and when they fall behind against the Hotspurs. They were content to settle for a draw against West Brom to finally get some points this season — but this is a different challenge. The Clarets are usually more potent when playing at home at Turf Moor. Last season, Burnley scored 24 of their 42 goals at home — and 31.08 of their 49.35 expected goals (xG) came on their home pitch. The Clarets averaged 1.64 xG at home last year.
FINAL TAKE: Tottenham leads the EPL in creating Big Chances (scoring chances with at least a 38% probability of scoring given historical averages). Look for the Hotspurs to take the lead, which will compel Burnley to abandon their preferred compact approach. 25* EPL Monday Afternoon Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between Tottenham (200093) and Burnley (200094). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-25-20 |
Seahawks v. Cardinals UNDER 55 |
Top |
34-37 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 42 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (467) minus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (468). THE SITUATION: Seattle (5-0) returns to the field after their bye week after last defeating Minnesota by a 27-26 two weeks ago as a 6.5-point favorite. Arizona (4-2) comes off a 38-10 upset win at Dallas on Monday as a 1-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Seahawks have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after winning at least three games in a row. Seattle comes off their bye week which means head coach Pete Carroll and his staff has conducted their self-scout regarding what they need to improve. There is no question that the defensive-oriented Carroll made decisions regarding how to improve his defense that is last in the league by allowing 471.2 total YPG. The Seahawks will not have Jamal Adams tonight but they should still play better on that side of the football — even if it means that they do not “Let Russ Cook” as much because they need to run the ball more to protect their defense by keeping them off the field. The fewer plays a defensive player has to make, the fresher he will be later in the game — that is what the coaches say. Seattle has allowed at least 415 yards in all five of their games this season — but they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least 400 yards in their last game. The Seahawks have also played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after allowing at least 400 yards in two straight games. The 27 points that Seattle scored last week were the fewest they have put up on the scoreboard all season. The Seahawks have played 23 of their last 31 games Under the Total after scoring at least 25 points in three straight games — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after scoring at least 25 points in four straight contests. Seattle goes back on the road where they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total when favored. The Seahawks have also played 4 straight games Under the Total in October. Arizona has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Cardinals have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a win by at least two touchdowns. Arizona has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after playing on Monday Night Football. The Cardinals will take a page out of the Vikings’ playbook to run the football to keep Wilson off the field. Seattle was on offense for just 20:32 minutes against Minnesota with the Vikings running the ball 40 times for 201 yards. QB Kyler Murray may get the headlines but Arizona is averaging 30 rushing attempts per game for 161 rushing YPG. The Under is 3-1-1 in the Seahawks’ last 5 games after they allowed at least 150 rushing yards in their last game. This commitment to keeping the running game going has helped the Cardinals rank second in the league by allowing 18.7 PPG. Arizona returns home where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total — and they have played 8 of their last 11 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, the Cardinals have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total against fellow NFC foes.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played did not see more than 40 combined points scored in their two divisional meetings last season — and the last 5 clashes in Arizona have all finished Under the Total. 25* NFC West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (467) minus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (468). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-25-20 |
49ers v. Patriots -2.5 |
Top |
33-6 |
Loss |
-130 |
6 h 58 m |
Show
|
At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (470) minus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (469). THE SITUATION: New England (2-3) has lost two games in a row after their 18-12 upset loss to Denver last Sunday as a 7-point favorite. San Francisco (3-3) enters this game triumphant after their 24-16 upset win over the Los Angeles Rams last Sunday as a 2.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS MINUS THE POINTS: This is the first time that Bill Belichick’s team has been below .500 in October in 225 games. Their 26-10 loss at Kansas City two weeks ago was not a surprise since they were without Cam Newton in that game. Do not underestimate the negative impact the lack of practices has had on this team over the last two weeks. I believe Belichick and his coaching staff were able to address a host of issues this week in what was their first uninterrupted normal week of preparation since their 36-20 victory over the Raiders three weeks ago. Belichick’s teams in New England are a decisive 49-24-1 ATS in their last 74 games after a straight-up loss. I expect this Patriots’ offense to improve significantly this week after struggling against the Broncos. New England has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games after not scoring more than 14 points in two straight contests. The Patriots defense is playing quite well — they held the Chiefs to just 19 points from their offense while limiting them to only 323 yards two weeks ago before holding the Broncos to 299 yards last week. Belichick teams usually are reliable in October as they are 42-17-2 ATS in their last 61 games in this month — and the Patriots have covered the point spread in seven of their last ten games in October. New England has also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games as a home favorite of 7 points or less. San Francisco may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after an upset win as a home underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after an upset win at home against an NFC West rival. The 49ers are starting to get healthy again — but they are still a shell of the team that made it to the Super Bowl. The defense remains a M*A*S*H unit with Nick Bosa, Dee Ford, and Richard Sherman out indefinitely. The Niners will also be without the glue of their defense for the second straight week in linebacker Kwon Alexander who is dealing with a high ankle sprain. On offense, the team put running back Raheem Mostert on IR this week to join Tevin Coleman on that list. San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games in October. They are also just 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games against teams with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: Belichick should have a special game plan for 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo who he drafted and groomed in New England for years before trading him to San Francisco. 25* NFL CBS-TV Game of the Month with the New England Patriots (470) minus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (469). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-25-20 |
Leicester v. Arsenal UNDER 2.75 |
Top |
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 3:15 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between Leicester City (200081) and Arsenal (200082). THE SITUATION: Leicester City (W3-D0-L2) has lost two EPL matches in a row after their 1-0 loss at home to Aston Villa last Sunday. Arsenal (W3-D0-L2) looks to rebound from their 1-0 loss at Manchester City last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: I waited for confirmation of the Leicester City lineup that was released an hour before game time after being burned last week when we took the Foxes without realizing that their top scorer, Jamie Vardy, would miss the game with an injury. Those are always the dangers in the first week back in the English Premier League after the international break. Leicester City hoped to have Vardy in their Starting XI today — but while his active on their roster, he is starting on their bench. So, I expect Vardy to play around 30 minutes today. Without Vardy, the Foxes have struggled to score. Not only have they been shutout in two straight matches but they have managed only 0.57 expected goals (xG) per match in those two games. Even with Vardy, Leicester City was struggling to generate scoring chances so far this season — they are averaging just 0.92 xG in non-penalty shot chances. Three of their twelve goals this season have come via a penalty kick — and the league is not calling as many controversial handball penalties like they were last month. 47% of the Foxes expected goals this season have come from penalty kicks. Manager Brendan Rodgers is dealing with a host of injuries besides Vardy — most notably defensive midfielder Wilfred Ndidi and center back Caglar Soyuncu. Rodgers has his team playing more cautiously to compensate for their absence on the pitch. Leicester City is allowing only 1.26 expected goals (xGA) this season. Arsenal is playing pretty solid defense themselves with an xGA of 1.38 this season even after playing two of the most prolific attacks in the league on the road already in Liverpool and Man City. The Gunners added defensive midfielder Thomas Partey in the transfer window from the defensive juggernaut that is Atletico Madrid. Manager Mikel Arteta has his team playing a defensive-first style with their offense coming from counter-attacks. Arsenal has managed only 39 shots on goal in their five matches for a 7.8 average per game which is third-lowest in the EPL. The Gunners are averaging only 1.28 xG per game.
FINAL TAKE: Arsenal’s approach has neutralized the activity and effectiveness of Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang who has managed only six shots all season after scoring 22 goals last season. This shapes up to be a low-scoring affair. 25* EPL Sunday Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between Leicester City (200081) and Arsenal (200082). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-25-20 |
Bills v. Jets UNDER 46.5 |
Top |
18-10 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (463) and the New York Jets (464). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (4-2) ha lost two straight games after their 26-17 loss to Kansas City on Monday as a 5.5-point underdog. New York (0-6) remained winless on the season last Sunday with their listless 24-0 loss at Miami as a 10-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bills have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Buffalo offense managed only 206 yards against the Chiefs on Monday. The Josh Allen for Most Valuable Player talk has completely ceased after the Bills have scored only 21.0 PPG over the last three weeks while averaging just 304.0 total YPG. Allen completed just 14 of 27 passes on Monday for 122 yards. Buffalo has played 4 straight games Under the Total after failing to gain at least 250 yards in their last game — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after not passing for at least 150 yards in their last contests. The Bills’ defense surrendered 466 yards to Kansas City as well — but they have then played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Now Buffalo goes on the road where they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. Furthermore, the Bills have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range — and they have played 6 straight games away from home Under the Total with the total in that 42.5 to 49 range. Playing the Jets may be just what the proverbial doctor ordered as their injury-plagued offense is scoring just 12.5 PPG while averaging 276.7 total YPG. New York has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a loss by at least 21 points. Joe Flacco was the quarterback last week in getting a shutout — and Sam Darnold is probable to play this afternoon. But with running back Le’ Veon Bell traded to Kansas City, he simply lacks supporting talent at the skill positions. The Jets have played 10 of their last 16 home games Under the Total as an underdog getting 7.5 to 14 points — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. New York has also played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total against fellow AFC East foes.
FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the September 13th meeting between these two teams which the Bills won by a 27-17 score. The Jets have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing with same-season revenge. 25* AFC East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (463) and the New York Jets (464). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-24-20 |
Dodgers v. Rays OVER 8 |
Top |
7-8 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 50 m |
Show
|
At 8:08 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (957) and the Tampa Bay Rays (958) in Game Four of the World Series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (54-21) took a 2-1 lead in this series last night with their 6-2 victory over the Rays. Tampa Bay (50-27) has lost five of their last seven games. This game is being played on a neutral field at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas. The Rays are the designated home team.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Dodgers have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against an opponent who allowed at least five runs in their last game. Los Angeles has also played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total priced as the favorite at least at -150. They give the ball to Urias who was 3-0 with a 3.27 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP in eleven regular-season appearances which included ten starts. The left-hander was not as effective on the road where his ERA rose to a 4.67 mark along with a 1.33 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .257 in four starts as compared to his 2.63 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, and .200 opponent’s batting average when pitching at home at Dodgers Stadium. Urias has been outstanding in this postseason — but I remain wary of his deeper sabermetrics with his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.88 and 5.06 from his peripheral numbers in the regular season. Urias has a 0.56 ERA in 16 innings in these playoffs but his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 3.34 and 3.80 moving forward based only on his peripheral numbers in this postseason. Tampa Bay has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or higher. The Rays have also played 8 of their last 9 games in Interleague play Over the Total against left-handed starting pitchers. Tampa Bay left only two runners on base yesterday — but they have played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total after allowing no more than three runners on base in their last game. The Rays have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. Additionally, Tampa Bay has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 7 to 8.5 range. They counter with Yarbrough who was 1-4 with a 3.56 ERA and 1.19 in 55 2/3 innings of regular-season work. His SIERA and xFIP during that time projected an ERA of 4.44 and 4.32 respectively. The lefty has a nice 3.37 ERA in 10 2/3 innings in these playoffs — but I have had the Over circled for this Game Four because of his SIERA and xFIP for those 10 2/3 innings project his ERA to blow up to a 5.32 and 6.26 level respectively moving forward.
FINAL TAKE: The Dodgers have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total with Urias making the start as a favorite priced at -110 or higher. 25* Major League Baseball Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (957) and the Tampa Bay Rays (958). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-24-20 |
Real Madrid v. Barcelona FC UNDER 3.25 |
Top |
3-1 |
Loss |
-116 |
0 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Real Madrid (201885) and Barcelona (201886). THE SITUATION: Real Madrid (W3-D1-L1) enters this match coming off a 1-0 loss to Cadiz last Saturday in their most recent La Liga match. Barcelona (W2-D1-L1) looks to rebound from a 1-0 loss to Getafe last Saturday in their last La Liga contest.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Both of these Spanish giants limp into the first incarnation of El Clasico for the 2020-21 campaign. Real Madrid was stunned to lose to Cadiz at home last week against a newly promoted side to La Liga. Los Blancos followed that up on Wednesday with a shocking 3-2 loss to Shaktar Donetsk at home in Champions League play. What’s up? Manager Zinedine Zidane’s side is not working very hard — and they appear jaded and a bit lackadaisical after using Project Restart over the summer to win the 2019-20 La Liga campaign. Many elite teams in Europe have struggled with their intensity with the return to league play this fall. Real Madrid is struggling to score. They have scored only six goals in their last five league matches. The ever-disappointing Eden Hazard is dealing with a leg injury that has kept him off the pitch. Benzema and Toni Kroos are out of form. This problem on offense goes deeper than this season. Over their last fourteen matches, Los Blancos have eight single-goal wins with a nil-nil draw and a single-goal defeat. They have only had three victories over that span by two goals. But Zidane’s group is still playing outstanding defense. They allowed just 1.04 expected goals in their winning 2019-20 La Liga campaign — and they are close to that level so far this season with their 1.10 expected goals allowed (xGA) mark. They did not have their rock on their defensive backline for the midweek Champions League match in Sergio Ramos who should be fit to play in this crucial rivalry game. Barcelona has embraced a youth movement under first-year manager Ronaldo Koeman. The Dutch coach brings a defensive-approach to Camp Nou — the Blaugranas have an outstanding 1.03 xGA in league play so far this season. But Barca is generating only 0.90 xG in their last three matches. Lionel Messi is not in form after wanting to exit the team in the offseason. Messi has not scored in his last five matches against Real Madrid. This team was outmuscled by Getafe last weekend in a match where they struggled to find scoring opportunities — they managed a mere 0.92 xG.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams played to a nil-nil draw in the match at Camp Nou last season. Real Madrid won the rematch by a 2-0 score at home later in the season — but that was another low-scoring match. Expect another lower-scoring game. 25* La Liga Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Real Madrid (201885) and Barcelona (201886). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-23-20 |
UL-Lafayette -2.5 v. UAB |
Top |
24-20 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 33 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (309) plus the points versus the UAB Blazers (310). THE SITUATION: UL-Lafayette (3-1) looks to rebound from their 30-27 upset loss at home to Coastal Carolina as a 9-point favorite back on October 14th. UAB (4-1) has won three straight games after their 37-14 victory over Western Kentucky last Saturday as a 10.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAGIN’ CAJUNS MINUS THE POINTS: UL-Lafayette should respond with a big effort tonight. The Ragin’ Cajuns have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games on the road after an upset loss to a conference rival. UL-Lafayette returned fourteen starters from the group that finished 11-3 with a 27-17 victory over Miami (OH) in the Lending Tree Bowl. Led by senior quarterback Levi Lewis, the Ragin’ Cajuns are averaging 456.7 total YPG over their last three contests. They also have averaged 7.55 and 7.57 Yards-Per-Play in their last two games — and they have then covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 road games after averaging at least 6.25 YPP in their last two games. Now UL-Lafayette goes back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games against teams with a winning record at home — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games with the Total set in the 49.5 to 52 range. UAB may be due for a letdown after they crushed the Hilltoppers last week. The Blazers gave failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread victory. UAB has also failed to cover the point in 6 straight games after a win by at least 20 points. And in their last 17 games after winning at least three games in a row, the Blazers have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of these games. UAB rushed for 358 yards to help lead them to victory — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 37 points in their last game. They are playing without their starting quarterback Tyler Johnston III who is out indefinitely with a shoulder injury. Redshirt freshman Bryson Lucero was shaky under center for the Blazers as he completed only 15 of 31 passes for 141 yards with a touchdown and an interception while not contributing to the running game. UAB is at a significant disadvantage in this game at the quarterback position. This team returned eighteen starters from head coach Bill Clark’s team that finished 9-5 last season. They only had one victory over an FBS team with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. UAB has beaten three FBS teams this season in South Alabama, UTSA, and Western Kentucky last week — none of these teams have a record above .500. The Blazers' one loss was by 17 points at Miami (FL).
FINAL TAKE: UL-Lafayette has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games in October. Look for them to pull away to win this game comfortably. 25* CFB Friday CBS Sports Network Game of the Month with the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (309) plus the points versus the UAB Blazers (310). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-23-20 |
Leeds United v. Aston Villa UNDER 3 |
Top |
3-0 |
Push |
0 |
1 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Leeds United (200085) and Aston Villa (200086). THE SITUATION: Leeds United (W2-D1-L2) enters this match looking to rebound from their 1-0 loss at home to Wolverhampton on Monday in English Premier League action. Aston Villa (W4-D0-L0) remains the only EPL team with a perfect record with their 1-0 win at Leicester City last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Villans were one of the worst defensive teams in the EPL for much of last season — but manager Dean Smith made a tactical change after the March shutdown of action. When Aston Villa returned to play for Project Restart, they played less aggressively with a fourth defender in their backline. Since that time through last week, the Villans are holding their opponents to just 6.2 shots in the box per game along with only 1.2 Big Chances per game. Those are remarkable improvements when compared to the 12.2 shots per box and 3.1 Big Chances per game they allowed last season before the shutdown. Aston Villa has allowed only two goals this season — and the 3.71 expected goals allowed (xGA) from the deeper analytics is the best defensive mark in the league. The Villans have also scored 12 goals this season — but the metrics suggest they are overachieving since their expected goals (xG) mark drops to 6.79 xG. Seven of Aston Villa’s 12 goals came from their 7-2 blowout win over Liverpool which was very impressive — but the Reds also took their foot off the pedal in that embarrassing loss. In their 1-0 victory over Leicester City, they only managed 0.92 xG. The Villans have also benefited from playing a Fulham team that is perhaps the worst defensive team in the league — three of their goals come from that match. Leeds United held Wolverhampton to just 0.48 xG in their 1-0 loss to begin the week. Manager Marcelo Bielsa has his team play an aggressive style where the entire midfield joins the forwards in the times they go on the counter-attack. But after wild 4-3 matches against Liverpool and Fulham which they split, Bielsa has had his team be more cautious when embracing their counter-attack. In the Whites last three matches, only four combined goals have been scored with Leeds scoring twice and conceding twice. Two of these matches ended in a clean sheet including the Whites 1-0 victory over Sheffield United. With defensive midfielder Kalvin Phillips out for this match, look for Leeds to be even more judicious for when they decide to bring the house in their counter-attacks.
FINAL TAKE: Aston Villa remains a defense-first side under Smith. This match should follow the recent trends for both teams to be a lower-scoring game. 25* EPL Friday Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Leeds United (200085) and Aston Villa (200086). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-22-20 |
Giants v. Eagles UNDER 45 |
Top |
21-22 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 46 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (303) and the Philadelphia Eagles (304). THE SITUATION: New York (1-5) snapped their five-game losing streak on Sunday with their 20-19 win over Washington as a 2-point favorite. Philadelphia (1-4-1) has lost two games in a row with their 30-28 loss at home to Baltimore as a 10.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Giants have played a decisive 31 of their last 42 games Under the Total after a narrow win by three points or less — and they have played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a win by no more than a field goal against an NFC East rival. Additionally, New York has played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss — and they have played 12 of their last 15 games away from home Under the Total after a victory where they failed to cover the point spread. The Giants are struggling to score points with running back Saquon Barkley out the season with his torn ACL. New York is scoring just 16.8 PPG while averaging a mere 275.3 total YPG. The Giants leading rusher is QB Daniel Jones — they are 30th in the league by averaging 87.8 rushing YPG. They did pick up Devonta Freeman to be their lead back but he is simply not a threat — his longest carry has gone for only 14 yards. Opposing defenses can lay off the run and use a linebacker to defend against potential passes. But the Giants’ defense has been playing pretty good — they are holding their home hosts to just 315.3 total YPG this season. New York has played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Philadelphia has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Eagles have played two straight Overs where at least 58 combined points were scored. But Philadelphia has played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a game that finished Over the Total — and they have played 28 of their last 42 games Under the Total after playing two straight games where at least 50 combined points were scored. The Philly offense is riddled with injuries. They will be without running back Miles Sanders for a few weeks with his knee injury which means their lead back tonight will be the 5’7 Boston Scott who has rushed for only 67 yards on 21 carries. QB Carson Wentz is without a number of his best targets in the passing game. Wide receiver Alshon Jeffrey and tight end Dallas Goedert are out for tonight. Star tight end Zach Ertz has yet to be ruled out but he suffered an ankle injury that the doctors think will keep him on the shelf for weeks. Wide receiver DeSean Jackson plans to take the field tonight after missing the last three games but it remains to be seen how effective the 33-year old can be coming off a hamstring injury that may impact his speed. The Eagles offensive line is even in worse shape. Starters Brandon Brooks, Andre Dillard, and Isaac Seumaol are all out. The team brought back Jason Peters after Dillard suffered his season-ending biceps injury — and he is also on the Injured Reserve. Tackle Lane Johnson will take the field despite his ankle injury but rookie backup Jack Driscoll is out tonight with an ankle. Wentz has been sacked 25 times this season — and being hurried has contributed to his nine interceptions. The Giants have a good pass rush that ranks 10th in the legacy with 15 sacks. Philadelphia has played 8 of their last 10 games at home Under the Total — and they have played 7 straight home games Under the Totals at home laying 3.5 to 7 points. The Eagles have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing in Philadelphia. 25* NFC East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (303) and the Philadelphia Eagles (304). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-21-20 |
Liverpool -0.5 v. Ajax Amsterdam |
Top |
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 45 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Liverpool (224241) minus the goal-line versus Ajax (224242) in Group Stage play of the UEFA Champions League. THE SITUATION: Liverpool begins its Champions League campaign coming off a 2-2 draw against Everton in English Premier League action on Saturday. Ajax comes off a 5-1 win over Heerenveen in Eredivisie action in the Dutch top-flight.
REASONS TO TAKE LIVERPOOL MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Ajax is trying to rekindle the magic they had in the 2018-19 season where they made a run to the Semifinals of the Champions League where they lost to Tottenham. However, a bunch of the core talent from that team has now been poached by the bigger budget teams in Europe. Defenseman Matthijs DeLight signed with Juventus while Hakim Ziyech and Donny Van de Beek recently signed with Chelsea and Manchester United. This is a side that took a big step back last season in Champions League play where they failed to qualify for the last 16 knockout stage. They were W3-D1-L2 in group stage play with their 10 points just one shy of the qualifying second-place slot. But what was more troubling in Champions League play was their -6.5 net goal differential in expected goals where they overachieved on both ends of the pitch. Ajax scored 12 goals despite an expected goals (xG) mark of just 7.8. They also only allowed 6 goals despite their expected goals allowed (xGA) of 14.3. This season, Ajax has won four of their five matches in the Eredivisie national league — but that is not considered one of the top-tier professional leagues in Europe. Liverpool comes off a 2-2 draw against what has now become a loaded Everton team. They won the expected goals battle by a 2.85-1.35 xG mark. That effort erased any concerns I had about their surprising 7-2 loss to Aston Villa in EPL play. A number of the elite teams in the EPL have started slowly. I am writing these efforts off to the unique season where the players did not enjoy a traditional offseason given the summer Project Restart. The Reds are still loaded with talent. They did suffer two big injuries against Everton with both Virgil Van Dijk and Thiago Alcantara out for this match. Thiago was a very nice offseason acquisition who was playing in his first match with his new club on Saturday — so his loss is not a big subtraction. The loss of Van Dijk is more significant as he will likely miss the rest of the season with his torn ACL. Not having Van Dijk will not impact the Liverpool attack as much since it has right-back Andre Robertson who has become their primary attacker who advances from the backline to assist Mo Salah, Sadio Mane, and Roberto Firmino. Van Dijk will be replaced by either Fabinho or Naby Keito who is back in training from his injury. The Reds will be fine. They won the Champions League in 2019 against the Spurs team that defeated Ajax in the Semifinals. They won the EPL last season. And they need to get back to their winning ways after a slow start to their EPL campaign.
FINAL TAKE: Liverpool is unbeaten in their last thirteen matches versus Ajax who have only one win in their last six matches from teams from England. Ajax hosts this match (without fans) in their Johan Cruijff ArenA in Amsterdam — but they have only won once in their last seven opportunities to host an English professional team. Ajax is rebuilding with some nice young talent — but their inexperience against elite sides will do them this afternoon. 25* UEFA Champions League Match of the Month with Liverpool (224241) minus the goal-line versus Ajax (224242). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-20-20 |
Rays +1.5 v. Dodgers |
Top |
3-8 |
Loss |
-132 |
3 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 8:11 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Rays (951) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Los Angeles Dodgers (952) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Glasnow and Clayton Kershaw in Game One of the World Series. THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (49-25) reached the World Series on Saturday with their 4-2 win over the Houston Astros in Game Seven of the ALCS. Los Angeles (52-20) joined them a day later on Sunday by defeating the Atlanta Braves in Game Seven of that series by a 4-3 score. The World Series will be played on a neutral field at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas. The Dodgers are the designated home team for Game One.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAYS PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: Tampa Bay has won 20 of their last 28 games after a win by two runs or less — and they have won 36 of their last 53 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. The Rays have also won 9 of their last 11 games after an off day. Tampa Bay got by the Astros despite not scoring more than four runs in four straight games. But the Rays have then won 10 of their last 13 games after not scoring more than four runs in three straight games — and they have won 5 of their last 7 games after not scoring more than four runs in four straight games. They give the ball to Glasnow who was 5-1 in eleven regular-season starts with a 4.08 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP — and he was more effective on the road where he had a 3.45 ERA with a 1.09 WHIP in six starts. In four postseason starts spanning 19 1/3 innings this season, he has struck out 25 batters while walking only eight. Tampa Bay has won 16 of their last 20 games with Glasnow pitching after the team had a win. And while Glasnow last pitched on Wednesday of last week, the Rays have won 8 of their last 9 games with Glasnow pitching on five or six days of rest. Los Angeles has stranded ten runners in two straight games which is a disturbing sign for them — they have lost 9 of their last 13 games after stranding at least ten runners in two straight games. They give the ball to Kershaw who was 6-2 in ten regular-season starts with a 2.16 ERA and a 0.84 WHIP. The left-hander has been dealing with back spasms that not only canceled his planned Game Two start in the NLCS but also kept him from starting Game Seven on Sunday. His 5.72 ERA along with a 1.27 WHIP in his last two starts in these playoffs is concerning. His career 4.31 ERA in 177 1/3 innings of work in the postseason also raises alarms. He will be supported by a bullpen that has a 4.54 ERA in their last seven games. And Kershaw faces a Rays team that has won 11 of their last 16 games against left-handed starting pitchers. The Dodgers enter the World Series having lost 5 of their last 6 games in the Fall Classic — and they have also lost 3 of their last 4 games in the World Series with Kershaw making the start.
FINAL TAKE: Tampa Bay has pulled the upset in 6 of their last 9 games when an underdog that is priced in the +125 to +175 price range. The Dodgers have won five of their last six games when priced higher than the -150 threshold — but two of those victories were just by one run. With the +1.5 Run-Line priced below my -150 price threshold, this is my preferred bet for this game. 25* MLB Tuesday Night Run-Line Special Feature with the Tampa Bay Rays (951) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Los Angeles Dodgers (952) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Glasnow and Clayton Kershaw. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-19-20 |
Cardinals v. Cowboys +1 |
Top |
38-10 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (276) plus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (275). THE SITUATION: Dallas (2-3) enters this game coming off a 37-34 win at home over the New York Giants last Sunday as a 7.5-point favorite. Arizona (3-2) looks to build off their 30-10 win at New York against the Jets as a 7-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS MINUS THE POINTS: The big news for Dallas is the season-ending injury to Dak Prescott. I think the offense will continue to be productive with Andy Dalton under center. The Red Rider is a veteran with playoff experience who needed to get out of Cincinnati. He has tons of offensive weapons with the Cowboys with Ezekiel Elliott at running back along with one of the most talented and deepest wide receiving corps in the league. I also think the strength of offensive coordinator Kellen Moore is his initial scheming (not so much with his ability to adapt) — so I think Dallas will have a short-term advantage with Moore’s wrinkles with the offense as he shapes it to Dalton’s strength. Look for the Cowboys to come out with plenty of energy as they look to salvage their season — and they are still in first place in the hapless NFC East. Dallas has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win at home where they scored at least 31 points. And while the Cowboys have not covered the point spread in any of their games this season, Dallas has then covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after failing to cover the point spread in at least four straight games. The Cowboys lead the NFL by averaging 488.0 total YPG — and that usually is a good sign for them moving forward. After scoring 75 combined points in their last two games, Dallas has scored at least 31 points in four straight games — and they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 35 points in their last two contests. The Cowboys have gained at least 408 yards in four straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after gaining at last 400 yards in three straight games. And while Dallas has averaged at least 6.48 Yards-Per-Play in their last four contests, they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after averaging at least 6.0 YPP in four straight contests. Arizona has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win by at least two touchdowns. The Cardinals dominated the woeful Jets by outgaining them by +211 net yards — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least +200 net yards. Quarterback Kyler Murray completed 27 of 37 passes for 380 yards in the victory — but Arizona is just 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games after passing for at least 250 passing yards in their last game. Furthermore, the Cardinals are just 1-8-2 ATS in their last 11 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. This Arizona team is also without their All-Pro linebacker Chandler Jones who suffered a season-ending biceps injury. Not only will the Cardinals miss his 19 sacks from last season but they are also without linebacker Devon Kennard.
FINAL TAKE: Arizona has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games when playing on Monday Night Football while Dallas has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on MNF. Look for the Cowboys to pull out the victory behind Dalton. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month with the Dallas Cowboys (276) plus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (275). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-19-20 |
Wolverhampton Wanderers +0.25 v. Leeds United |
Top |
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Wolverhampton (200053) with the goal-line versus Leeds United (200054). THE SITUATION: Wolverhampton (W2-D0-L2) returns to the pitch after the international break looking to build off their 1-0 win over Fulham on October 4th. Leeds United (W2-D1-L1) comes off a 1-1 draw at home to Manchester City on October 4th.
REASONS TO TAKE WOLVERHAMPTON WITH THE GOAL-LINE: The Wolves have started slow this season with two losses to Man City and West Ham. The early season for this team has been hit-or-miss as they also manage the Europa League campaign with a roster that does not have the same depth as the power franchises in the English Premier League. But this remains the same team that has finished 7th in the EPL in each of the last two seasons since being promoted from the Championship League. They have one of the best managers in Espirito Nuno Santo — and they are acquiring more and more top-end talent to bolster their solid core group of players. There have been some transition issues with the change of roster over the transfer window. The Wolves were the best defensive team in the EPL last season with an expected goal allowed mark of 1.08. Their counter-attacking system matches up quite well with the uber-aggressive counter-attack of this Leeds team from their outstanding manager Marcelo Bielsa. The Whites will send their entire midfield along with their forwards when they initiate their counter-attack. This gives Leeds the best-of-both-worlds approach where they will park the bus for much of the match before becoming hyper-aggressive when they get the opportunity to attack. Their exciting 4-3 loss to Liverpool that opened the season displayed how wild their matches can become. But the Wolves are not the pressing-styled team from which Bielsa’s approach was designed to exploit. Nuno will not deviate from their defensive-shape — and they lead the EPL so far this season in expected goals coming from fast breaks. Leeds is allowing their opponents to post a 2.05 expected goals mark which is third-worst in the league. They are also getting beat by a 0.67 expected goals differential per 90 minutes.
FINAL TAKE: Leeds may be without their captain Liam Cooper who is a doubt with a groin injury. Coming off the international break, I expect the Wolves to start playing better. 25* EPL Monday NBC Sports Network Match of the Month with Wolverhampton (200053) with the goal-line versus Leeds United (200054). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-18-20 |
Rams v. 49ers +3.5 |
Top |
16-24 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (274) minus the points versus Los Angeles Rams (273). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (2-3) was upset for the second straight week last Sunday with their 43-17 shellacking at the hands of Miami as an 8.5-point favorite. Los Angeles (4-1) has won two straight games with their 30-10 win at Washington as a 7-point favorite last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS PLUS THE POINTS: This is a critical game for San Francisco after they have been upset in two straight games as a favorite laying more than a touchdown in two straight weeks in what was supposed to be a fruitful three-game homestand. The Niners were upset at home two weeks ago on Sunday Night Football against the Eagles (when we successfully had Philly) before their upset loss at home to the Dolphins last week. San Francisco goes on the road next week for a brutal two-game swing at New England and then Seattle. With the NFC West also including an up-and-coming Arizona team, head coach Kyle Shanahan simply needs to get a victory from his team tonight. The 49ers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after an upset loss by at least 21 points. They also have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not covering the point spread in two straight games. QB Jimmy Garoppolo was probably rushed back to action last week with his bum ankle as he could not plant his leg which led to him completing only 7 of 17 passes while throwing two interceptions last week before Shanahan got him out of there at halftime. Garoppolo should be better this week — and the pressure will be on for him to perform. The 49ers are also simply ravaged with injuries especially on defense where Richard Sherman, Joey Bosa, and Dee Ford are on IR while linebacker Kwon Alexander is out with an ankle. Yet despite all this attrition, San Francisco is fifth in the NFL by allowing only 323.0 YPG — and they are third in the league by allowing only 215.6 passing YPG and only six touchdown passes. The 49ers should step up in this game as they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Los Angeles may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after winning two games in a row. And while they have not allowed more than 10 points in two straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 17 points in two straight games. The Rams held the Football Team to just 108 yards of offense last week while limiting them to only a 2.45 Yards-Per-Play average. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games on the road after not allowing more than 200 yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games on the road after holding their last opponent to no more than 3.5 YPP. And while the combination of Alex Smith and Kyle Allen only managed 70 total passing yards last week, the Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after not allowing more than 100 passing yards in their last game.
FINAL TAKE: All four of Los Angeles’ victories have been against the weak NFC East teams — so their great stats may be propped up by a favorable early schedule. San Francisco has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog. 25* NFC West Game of the Month with the San Francisco 49ers (274) minus the points versus Los Angeles Rams (273). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-18-20 |
Braves v. Dodgers OVER 8 |
Top |
3-4 |
Loss |
-100 |
2 h 52 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Atlanta Braves (909) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (910) in Game Seven of the National League Championship Series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (51-20) forced a climactic seventh game in the NLCS last night with their 3-1 victory over the Braves. Atlanta (43-28) has lost the last two games in this series. The NLCS is being played in Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas with the Dodgers the designated home team batting last.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Braves give the ball to Anderson who was 3-2 with a 1.95 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in six regular-season starts. He has pitched 15 2/3 innings of scoreless innings in his three postseason starts which are the sixth most in MLB history for a starting pitcher making his debut in the playoffs. We are approaching Christy Mathewson territory here — and I expect this streak to end tonight. The Dodgers now have a book on Anderson from which to develop a strategy. Anderson also showed some vulnerabilities by walking five batters in that start. Furthermore, the deeper sabermetrics show some red flags with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.82 and 3.45 moving forward from his regular-season peripheral numbers. He will be supported by a bullpen that has a 6.68 ERA with a 1.52 WHIP in their last seven games. The Braves pen did not allow a run last night — but they have then played 13 of their last 20 games Over the Total after a game where they did not allow an earned run. Atlanta has not committed an error in four straight games either — but they have then played 17 of their last 23 games Over the Total after not committing an error in two straight games. Additionally, the Braves have played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total with the number set in the 8 to 8.5 range. Los Angeles has now played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total in the playoffs as the favorite. They counter with May who will be pitching on just one day of rest after pitching on Friday — so he will not pitch more than an inning or two. The right-hander had a 2.57 ERA in the regular season — but his SIERA and xFIP project his ERA to be 4.29 and 3.98 respectively moving forward. Tony Gonsolin and Julio Urias will likely next be up as left-handers. Gonsolin had a 2.31 ERA during the regular season but I am wary of his SIERA and xFIP of 3.68 and 3.80. Urias had a 3.27 ERA with a 1.15 WHIP in the regular season but those numbers rose to a 4.67 and 1.33 when pitching away from Dodgers Stadium. Urias also has a SIERA of 4.88 and an xFIP of 5.06. The LA bullpen has a 4.54 ERA with a 1.37 WHIP over their last seven games.
FINAL TAKE: The Dodgers have played 4 straight games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. Los Angeles is also scoring 6.7 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .263 batting average, .355 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .844. 25* MLB National League Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Atlanta Braves (909) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (910). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-18-20 |
Aston Villa v. Leicester -0.25 |
Top |
1-0 |
Loss |
-113 |
1 h 45 m |
Show
|
At 2:15 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Leicester City (200058) minus the goal-line versus Aston Villa (200057). THE SITUATION: Leicester City (W3-D0-L1) returns to action after their 3-0 loss at home to West Ham back on October 4th in their last EPL match. Aston Villa (W3-D0-L0) returns to the pitch after their 7-2 upset victory over Liverpool on October 4th.
REASONS TO TAKE LEICESTER CITY MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Foxes had been riding high winning their first three matches in the new EPL season after a dominant 5-2 statement win at Manchester City. They were perhaps due for an emotional letdown against the Hammers last week. The Foxes also maintained their back-five formation from their win over Man City against West Ham which is puzzling since that is a good counter to a pressing team like the Cityzens but less strategic against a similar counter-attacking team like the Hammers. Look for Leicester City to return to their typical 4-1-4 formation. Even after getting shutout in their last EPL match before the international break, the Foxes still entered this match week tied for the lead in the league with 12 goals. They are dealing with some injuries with the absence of Wilfried Ndidi most concerning to me — but they also upset Man City undermanned including not having Ndidi to patrol their defensive midfield. Leicester City remains a clear top-half of the table team who should compete to qualify for the Champions League after narrowly missing in the summer with their fifth-place final result after Project Restart. Aston Villa has been the surprise of the league with their perfect 3-0 start which was culminated with their shocking victory over the reigning EPL champs. It was just less than three months ago that they avoided relegation on the last day of the EPL campaign. The Villans are playing better as they are unbeaten in their last seven matches. And they have made some nice additions in the transfer window. Yet, let’s keep perspective. Three of their goals against Liverpool came via a deflection. They opened the season with a victory over a rebuilding Sheffield United side who were playing with ten men most of that match — yet Aston Villa managed just a 1.04 expected goals mark in that match. The Villans then defeated a Fulham team that looks likely to be the doormats of the league. Aston Villa has scored 11 goals but their expected goals drop to just 5.91.
FINAL TAKE: The Villans may be in second place entering the week but the expected points metric (xPTS) places them just 10th in the league. This will be just their second road match of the season after defeating Fulham away from home — and they were second to last season in expected goal differential on the road. They are likely to experience a rude awakening against an angry Leicester City side. 25* EPL Sunday Match of the Month with the Leicester City (200058) minus the goal-line versus Aston Villa (200057). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-17-20 |
Georgia v. Alabama -4.5 |
Top |
24-41 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Alabama Crimson Tide (166) minus the points versus the Georgia Bulldogs (165). THE SITUATION: Alabama (3-0) enter this game coming off their 63-48 victory over Ole Miss last Saturday as a 24-point favorite. Georgia (3-0) comes off a 44-21 win at home against Tennessee last Saturday as a 13-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CRIMSON TIDE MINUS THE POINTS: What’s up with the Alabama defense that surrendered a whopping 647 yards last week to the Rebels. The Tide returned five starters on a defense that had many freshmen forced into duty last season because of injuries. The front seven should be outstanding with the secondary work in progress with only one returning starter in junior cornerback Patrick Surtain. This inexperienced secondary got exposed by a Mississippi offense coached by a former offensive coordinator in Lane Kiffin who was able to (a) use a quick tempo to his advantage; (b) deploy a spread passing attack following the principles of Art Briles to expose this secondary with (c) a former blue-chip quarterback in Matt Corral who was also able to burn the Bama defense at times with his legs. I will mention this again below — but these are all tendencies that Georgia will not be able to replicate. That might have been the worst defensive performance for an Alabama team in the Nick Saban 14-year era. This unit will play better this week — and his teams have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. The Crimson Tide has also covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a point spread loss. But the encouraging developments for the Alabama faithful is the development of their offense under QB Mac Jones. The junior completed 28 of 32 passes against Ole Miss for 417 yards with two touchdowns. He is completing 79.5% of his passes while posting the second-best QBR in the nation. Jones was quite good playing for Tua Tagovailoa last season. He had two bad pick-sixes on the road at Auburn in a game that the Crimson Tide lost despite outgaining them by a 515-354 yardage margin. Alabama then sleepwalked in the first half in the Citrus Bowl against Michigan before rallying to crush the Wolverines by a 35-16 score. This will be the Crimson Tide’s biggest game since bitterly losing the Iron Bowl despite dominating that game. Expect this Alabama team to be very chippy. The Tide are very tough to beat when they have a powerful offense. Alabama averaged 9.89 Yards-Per-Play two weeks ago against Texas A&M for 544 yards before ripping off 10.2 YPP last week against Ole Miss for an incredible 723 yards. The Tide have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after gaining at least 525 yards in two straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 12 home games after averaging at least 7.25 YPP in two straight contests. Additionally, Alabama rushed for 306 yards last week — and they have then covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 home games after rushing for at least 300 yards in their last game. Georgia has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread cover — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread cover as a double-digit favorite. The Bulldogs may have the best defense in the nation — but their eight starters that returned this season were torched for 37 points and 6.5 YPP when playing against LSU in the SEC Championship Game last season. The Crimson Tide have four returning starters on their offensive line with three seniors that will challenge the Bulldogs’ defensive line. They have a threatening passing attack that will stretch Georgia vertically and horizontally — and that should create huge rushing lanes for running back Najee Harris and Brian Robinson Jr. That will likely be the difference for Alabama: Harris rushed for 206 yards with five touchdowns last week. He is averaging 3.1 yards-per-carry BEFORE contact (8th in the nation) and another 3.6 YPC AFTER contact (3rd in the nation). Led by Harris, the Tide offense leads the nation in both Success Rate and with their 6.5 rushing YPC average. The offensive firepower of Alabama simply cannot be matched by the Bulldogs offense which is the weak link in this game. Georgia only returned three starters from what was a pedestrian offense that was just 50th in scoring and 61st in total yardage. The young offensive line which remains a work-in-progress. The running backs and wide receivers are mostly a new group. And then there is the quarterback situation with walk-on Stetson Bennett the (current) starter. Bennett is playing because their two prized freshman recruits are not ready and former USC blue-chipper J.T. Daniels was only cleared to play two weeks ago. Head coach Kirby Smart likes Bennett because he is safe with the football while being capable with the passing attack — a junior level version of Jake Fromm. Well, that ain’t gonna get it done against Alabama. Bennett is small — just 5’11 and 190-lbs. He is a statue in the pocket. This is the profile of the quarterbacks that Saban defenses swallow and devour. The Bulldogs do not play with tempo and deploy a conventional pro-style offense that is designed to overwhelm lesser opponents. They are just 7th in the SEC on third-down conversion rate. I think first-year offensive coordinator Jeff Monken is fine — I think his impact on this game would have been stronger if it was being played in December rather than in their fourth game with this inexperienced offense. I suspect that Georgia will look to Daniels or another one of their quarterbacks before this game is over. The Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 road games as an underdog — and Alabama has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games when favored.
FINAL TAKE: Saban has tested negative for COVID three straight times — so he has been cleared to be on the sidelines. Bottom-line: the Tide have won the last five meetings against Bulldogs teams with better offenses and certainly more threatening quarterbacks — and this offense is catching the Bama defense on the wrong week after last week’s embarrassment. 25* CFB CBS-TV Game of the Month with the Alabama Crimson Tide (166) minus the points versus the Georgia Bulldogs (165). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-17-20 |
Braves v. Dodgers -140 |
Top |
1-3 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 26 m |
Show
|
At 4:38 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (906) versus the Atlanta Braves (905) listing both starting pitchers Walker Buehler and Max Fried in Game Six of the National League Championship Series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (50-20) extended the NLCS to a sixth game last night with their 7-3 victory over the Braves. Atlanta (43-27) has lost two of their last three games. The NLCS is being played at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas. The Dodgers will be the designated home team for Game Six.
REASONS TO TAKE LOS ANGELES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: The Dodgers have won 38 of their last 52 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The last four games in this series have finished Over the Total — and Los Angeles has won 14 of their last 18 games after playing at least two straight Overs. The Dodgers have also won 39 of their last 53 games with the Total set in the 9 to 10.5 range. And in their last 55 day games, LA has won 43 of these contests. They give the ball to Buehler who allowed one run in 5 innings of work in Game One of this series. The right-hander had a 1-0 record with a 3.44 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP in eight regular season starts. In his three postseason starts, Buehler has a 2.77 ERA spanning 13 innings. The Dodgers have won 9 of their last 11 games in the second half of the season with Buehler on the hill. Atlanta has lost 3 of their last 4 playoff games when attempting to close out the series. Atlanta has also lost 13 of their last 21 games after playing two straight Overs. Additionally, the Braves have lost 4 of their last 5 games with the Total set in the 9 to 10.5 range. And in their last 12 games as an underdog priced in the +125 to +175 price range, Atlanta has lost 9 of these games. They counter with Fried who was 7-0 with a 2.25 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP in eleven regular season starts. The lefty has a 2.65 ERA along with a 1.06 WHIP in 17 postseason innings this year. But I remain concerned about his deeper sabermetrics with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.32 and 4.06 based off his regular season peripheral numbers. He faces a Dodgers team that has won 18 of their last 24 games against left-handed starting pitchers — and they have won 41 of their last 58 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower.
FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles is averaging 7.1 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .270 batting average along with a .351 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .843. The Atlanta bullpen has a 6.25 ERA with a 1.39 WHIP in their last seven games. The Dodgers should force a climactic seventh game in the NLCS. 25* MLB National League Game of the Year with money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (906) versus the Atlanta Braves (905) listing both starting pitchers Walker Buehler and Max Fried. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-16-20 |
BYU v. Houston +6 |
Top |
43-26 |
Loss |
-112 |
9 h 50 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Houston Cougars (110) plus the points versus the BYU Cougars (109). THE SITUATION: Houston (1-0) won their opening game of the season last Thursday with their 49-31 win over Tulane as a 6.5-point favorite. BYU (4-0) remained undefeated last Saturday with their 27-20 win over UTSA as a 34-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE HOUSTON PLUS THE POINTS: Houston started slowly in finally getting their season started last week as they surrendered two defensive touchdowns to the Green Wave to find themselves down 24-7 early in the 2nd quarter. The Cougars then demolished Tulane the rest of the way by outscoring them by a 42-7 margin while outgaining them by 476 to 211 yards. Houston has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 24 points in their last game. BYU is getting the hype with their perfect record and +32.8 net PPG average — but I think it is the other Cougars in this game that are undervalued. Second-year head coach Dana Holgorsen returned nineteen starters while adding a whopping 33 transfer players from FBS, FCS, and junior college programs from last year’s group that finished 4-8. Holgorsen brought tanking and the de-facto “process” to college football last season with eleven players choosing to redshirt before losing eligibility by playing in their fifth game. This is a team loaded with talent coming off their worst won/loss record in 15 years. Holgorsen seems to have his QB to operate his version of the Air Raid in junior Clayton Tune who completed 20 of 33 passes for 319 yards with two touchdowns last week. Quarterbacks tend to see a big jump in their second-season under Holgorsen and his system. Houston has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. The Cougars’ defense returns 93% of its productivity from last season while getting a bunch of new talent from transfers. Houston is a dangerous home dog as they are 21-7-1 ATS in their last 29 games when getting the points. These Cougars have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in October — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games played on a Friday night. BYU has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread after a point spread loss. This team struggled against the Roadrunners as they struggled to finish drives in the Red Zone. This is troubling as they were 120th in the Red Zone last season. They also allowed UTSA to pass for 287 yards which were the most they allowed in the air all season. That is not a good sign when facing a Holgorsen Air Raid attack — and BYU has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last game. QB Zach Wilson did complete 21 of 30 passes for 292 yards in the win — but these Cougars have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Frankly, I have considered this Cougars team to be a paper tiger: they opened their season by crushing a Navy team that was not physically prepared to play given their limited workouts due to COVID before returning home for three straight games at home against Troy and Louisiana Tech before the UTSA “showdown” last week. BYU has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after winning at least two in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after winning three games in a row. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after playing their last two games at home. BYU is not a good frontrunner either — they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games when favored and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road when laying the points.
FINAL TAKE: BYU has failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 34 games with the Total set at 63 or higher. Houston has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games with the Total set in the 56.5 to 63 point range. 25* CFB Non-Conference Game of the Month with the Houston Cougars (110) plus the points versus the BYU Cougars (109). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-16-20 |
Astros v. Rays UNDER 8 |
Top |
7-4 |
Loss |
-109 |
2 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 6:07 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (901) and the Tampa Bay Rays (902) listing both starting pitchers Framber Valdez and Blake Snell in Game Six of the American League Championship Series. THE SITUATION: Houston (36-35) looks to build off the momentum of their 4-3 victory over the Rays last night. Tampa Bay (48-24) still holds a 3-2 lead in this series. This series is being played in San Diego’s Petco Park with the Rays being the designated home team for Game Six.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Under is 7-2-1 in the Astros’ last 10 games after a win. And while Houston’ bullpen blew the save last night after allowing a tying run in the top of the 8th inning, they have then played 32 of their last 47 games Under the Total after a blown save. The Astros have not scored more than four runs in five straight games — and they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not scoring more than four runs in their last game. They also have played 4 straight games Under the Total with the Total set at 7 to 8.5. They give the ball to Valdez pitching on full rest after allowing two runs in 6 innings of work in Game One of this series on Sunday. The left-hander had a 5-3 record with a 3.57 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP in the regular season. The deeper sabermetrics validate those strong frontline numbers with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.61 and 3.16 moving forward. The Astros have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total with Valdez pitching with the Total set at 7 to 8.5 — and they have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total with Valdez pitching during day games. He faces a slumping Rays lineup leaving hordes of runners on base. Tampa Bay is scoring only 2.9 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven contests with a .174 batting average along with a .247 batting average and an OPS of .573 during that span. The Rays have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. They are also hitting just .219 with a .298 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .703 against left-handed pitchers — and they have played 37 of their last 58 games Under the Total against left-handed starting pitchers. The Under is 14-5-1 in Tampa Bay’s last 20 games after a loss — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a loss by two runs or less. The Rays are hitting only .175 over their last five games — and they have then played 17 of their last 25 games Under the Total after not hitting better than .225 in their last five games. Furthermore, Tampa Bay has also played 5 straight games Under the Total with the number set in the 7 to 8.5 range. They counter with Snell who allowed one run in 5 innings in Game One of this series on Sunday. The left-hander had a 4-2 record with a 3.24 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP in eleven regular-season starts. The Rays have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total with Snell pitching as a favorite priced in the -125 to -175 range. He will be supported by a bullpen that has a 2.38 ERA with a 1.24 WHIP in their last seven games. He faces an Astros team that has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against left-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: The Tampa Bay has played 15 of their last 19 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a one-run loss. 25* MLB American League Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (901) and the Tampa Bay Rays (902) listing both starting pitchers Framber Valdez and Blake Snell. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-15-20 |
Georgia State v. Arkansas State -3 |
Top |
52-59 |
Win
|
100 |
16 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Arkansas State Red Wolves (106) minus the points versus the Georgia State Panthers (105). THE SITUATION: Arkansas State (2-2) enters this game coming off a 50-27 win over Central Arkansas last Saturday as a 14.5-point favorite. Georgia State (1-1) returns to action after last playing on October 3rd when they upset East Carolina by a 49-29 score as a 2-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RED WOLVES MINUS THE POINTS: Arkansas State will have something to prove in this game after being upset in their last game against an FBS opponent on October 3rd in their 52-23 loss at Coastal Carolina as a 3.5-point favorite. That was a difficult situation for the Red Wolves as they were playing their third straight game away from home. The Chanticleers are an underrated football team as well — as UL-Lafayette found out on Thursday night when they were upset at home against them. Arkansas State returned fifteen starters from last year’s team that finished 8-5 in a season culminating with a 34-26 win in the Camellia Bowl against FIU. The Red Wolves proved their mettle last month with a 35-31 upset win at Kansas State as a 15-point underdog (and perhaps they were due for a letdown when facing Coastal Carolina in their next game three weeks later). Despite their 2-2 record, they are outgaining their opponents by +56.8 net YPG. They stay at home in Jonesboro for just their second game this season where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 home games when favored by 3.5 to 7 points. Arkansas State has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games with the Total set at 70 or higher. The Red Wolves have been playing high-scoring games with each of their four games totaling at least 61 combined points. These are the games that Arkansas State tends to thrive in under head coach Blake Anderson as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after playing four straight games where at least 60 combined points were scored. Anderson has yet to settle on a full-time quarterback with junior Logan Bonner the starter last season for the first four games before suffering a season-ending hand injury which presented the opportunity to former Alabama transfer Layne Hatcher to step in with the redshirt sophomore finish 8th in the FBS by averaging 294.6 passing YPG. Anderson is rotating both quarterbacks with them both combining to complete 61.2% of their passes for an offense that is averaging 342 passing YPG along with an 8.3 Yards-Per-Attempt average. Georgia State scored a defensive touchdown and a special teams touchdown against the Pirates to help them win their last game. They are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. They also gained 485 yards in that game but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 475 yards in their last game. The Panthers are using redshirt freshman Cornelius Brown as their quarterback who will be making his first start on the road with this being Georgia State’s first game away from their home in Atlanta at Georgia State Stadium which was previously Turner Field for the Atlanta Braves. Georgia State is just 2-10-2 ATS in their last 14 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games on the road. The Panthers have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a game where at least 70 combined points were scored.
FINAL TAKE: Arkansas State will also be motivated to avenge a 52-38 upset loss at Georgia State last season where they were 6.5-point favorites. The Red Wolves have only had ten defensive players who have been available for all four of their games given injuries and COVID — but this unit will likely be at their healthiest for this game. 25* CFB Thursday ESPN Game of the Year with the Arkansas State Red Wolves (106) minus the points versus the Georgia State Panthers (105). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-14-20 |
Rays -138 v. Astros |
Top |
3-4 |
Loss |
-138 |
7 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 8:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Tampa Bay Rays (971) versus the Houston Astros (972) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Glasnow and Zack Greinke in Game Four of the American League Championship Series. THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (48-22) took a 3-0 lead in the ALCS with their 5-2 victory over the Astros yesterday. Houston (34-35) has lost four of their last five games. This series is being played on a neutral field at Petco Park in San Diego.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAYS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Tampa Bay has won 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Rays have also won 36 of their last 52 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. Tampa Bay has not allowed more than two runs in four straight games — and they have won 9 of their last 12 games after not allowing more than three runs in their last two contests. They are getting great efforts out of their bullpen that has a 2.18 ERA with a 1.24 WHIP over the last seven days. They give the ball to Glasnow who is 5-1 with a 4.08 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP in eleven regular-season starts. The right-hander was more effective on the road with his 3.45 ERA along with a 1.09 WHIP and .190 opponent’s batting average in six road starts. The deeper sabermetrics are bullish on Glasnow with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.04 and 2.75 moving forward from his deeper peripherals. Glasnow has been sharp in the postseason. He has an ERA of 4.05 given one mediocre outing — but his WHIP is 1.13 in 13 1/3 playoff innings while striking out 20 batters and walking only six. His last outing was on October 9th when he pitched 2 1/3 scoreless innings in Game Five of the ALDS against the New York Yankees on just two days of rest. Tampa Bay has won 13 straight games with Glasnow pitching with the Total set in the 8 to 8.5 range. Houston has now lost 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. They also have lost 16 of their last 22 games as an underdog. They counter with Greinke who was 3-3 with a 4.03 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP in twelve starts during the regular season. The right-hander was not as effective on the road where he saw his ERA and WHIP rise to 4.59 and 1.20 marks with his opponents hitting a .267 against him in six starts. Greinke has been dealing with arm soreness which may be limiting his effectiveness. He has not completed five innings of work in three straight starts. He allowed four runs in 4 2/3 innings in his last start against Oakland on October 8th. In his 8 2/3 innings in the postseason this year, Greinke has a 5.19 ERA with only five strikeouts. He will be supported by a shaky bullpen that has a 4.24 ERA and 1.47 WHIP this season — and those numbers rise to 4.78 and 1.52 marks in night games.
FINAL TAKE: The record was mixed in the NBA and NHL regarding how teams performed when facing playoff elimination. Some teams like the Denver Nuggets maintained their resolve. However, many teams saw the opportunity to escape the bubble required for those playoff games and gave only a half-hearted effort in their final game. I suspect this embattled Astros team that has been under the microscope all year for the cheating scandal will have one eye on the exit door tonight. They sleepwalked through the regular season. They also have lost 3 of their last 4 playoff games with Greinke pitching in an elimination game. 25* MLB American League Game of the Year with the money-line on the Tampa Bay Rays (971) versus the Houston Astros (972) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Glasnow and Zack Greinke. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-13-20 |
Bills v. Titans +3.5 |
Top |
16-42 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 40 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Tennessee Titans (462) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (461). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (3-0) finally takes the field again after last playing on September 27th where they defeated the Vikings in Minnesota by a 31-30 score as a 3-point favorite. Buffalo (4-0) remained unbeaten last week with their 30-23 win at Las Vegas as a 3-point favorite on October 4th.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TITANS PLUS THE POINTS: Endorsing Tennessee for this game first required an up-to-date assessment regarding who will be playing tonight. The news early this afternoon is that both left tackle Taylor Lewan and wide receiver A.J. Brown are expected to play after being listed as questionable on the last official injured list submitted to the league on Saturday. I thought this would be the case with the extra days to rest and rehabilitate — but confirmation was essential for me to push the proverbial button on this play. The Titans have a long lost of players out due to COVID with wide receivers Adam Humphries and Corey Davis being two of those players. I do have sources at the private high school in Nashville where Tennessee conducted informal workouts last week violating NFL guidelines. These workouts were on multiple days (good!) that involved quarterback Ryan Tannehill (good!) working with coaches (good!) in passing drills which are presumably the players that will be taking Humphries and Davis spots tonight (good!). I am not thrilled that the Titans will have had only two practices back at their open facilities since Saturday — but that is similar to the regimen for teams playing on a Thursday after a short week. At least Tennessee has stayed at home this entire time. And getting seventeen days of rest does not hurt. I think this will be a big night for running back Derrick Henry (who was not at the informal workouts — he was resting, which is good!) who may be poised to have his best game of the season running behind Lewan. I also like the extended time that head coach Mike Vrabel and his staff have had to devise a scheme-specific against the Bills’ QB Josh Allen. The only other significant loss for the Titans from COVID is defensive end, Jeffery Simmons. Tennessee has not covered the point spread yet this season — but they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after both a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread in and after failing to cover the point spread in at least two straight games. Tannehill led an offense that generated 444 yards against the Vikings in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after gaining at least 400 yards. And in their last 12 games when getting 3.5 to 9.5 points, Tennessee has covered the point spread 8 times. Buffalo has won and covered the point spread in all four of their games this season — but I don’t like it when teams that are red hot get out of their routine. As it is, the Bills have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after winning at least four games in a row. Additionally, Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after covering the point spread in their last two games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 38 of their last 60 games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. The Bills have won all three of their games decided by one possession including two wins by just a field goal. They enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin in their win over the Raiders — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after generating a +2 or better net turnover margin in their last game.
FINAL TAKE: Tennessee is 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games against fellow AFC opponents while Buffalo is just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games against AFC foes. While skepticism over the Titans after their long break is deserved, the market has over-adjusted (fueled by the Allen-hype) in making them road favorites of at least a field goal where they would typically be small road dogs according to most power rankings. 25* AFC Game of the Month with the Tennessee Titans (462) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (461). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-12-20 |
Chargers +7 v. Saints |
Top |
27-30 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 18 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (477) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (478). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (1-3) has lost three straight games after their 38-31 loss at Tampa Bay as a 7.5-point underdog last Sunday. New Orleans (2-2) snapped a two-game losing streak last Sunday with their 35-29 victory in Detroit against the Lions as a 3-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Saints have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. New Orleans is a banged-up football team. On defense, cornerbacks Janoris Jenkins and Marston Lattimore along with defensive end Marcus Davenport are all questionable with injuries. On offense, the offensive line is dealing with injuries to Andrus Peat and Ryan Ramczyk that leave them questionable for tonight. And while wide receiver Michael Thomas was questionable with the ankle that kept him out the previous two games, he was suspended for tonight’s game by the field after a physical altercation with a teammate. All these issues will make it harder for a team to cover a point spread of about a touchdown — the Saints just want the victory. They are scoring 30.8 PPG — but they are also allowing 30.8 PPG so far this season. They return home to the Big Easy where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 home games when laying the points. Los Angeles has lost all three of their games by 7 points or less. The Chargers had a 24-7 lead in the second quarter against the Buccaneers before blowing that lead to Tom Brady and company. They also blew a lead against Kansas City before losing that game in overtime — and a fumbled lateral in the waning moments of their game with Carolina probably cost them that victory. This is a quality roster with a good head coach in Anthony Lynn. I am worried about their injuries — particularly on the offensive line. But the Chargers put up 31 points against a very good Tampa Bay defense despite the injuries to Trai Turner and Bryan Bulaga who are starters on their offensive line. They seem to have made the right decision in drafting Justin Herbert at quarterback. The rookie has completed 72% of his passes for 831 yards and an 8.7 Yards-Per-Pass-Attempt average. Running back Austin Ekeler is out but they have a solid stable of running backs with rookie Joshua Kelley out of UCLA and former Northwestern Wildcat Josh Jackson. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 23 of their last 31 road games after losing at least three games in a row. The Chargers are also 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 23 road games with the total set at 49.5 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles is 9-3-2 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog — and they are 33-15-4 ATS in their last 52 road games when getting the points. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on Monday Night Football — and remember that they will not have a packed and rowdy home crowd for this game given COVID restrictions. 25* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month with the Los Angeles Chargers (477) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (478). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-11-20 |
Vikings +7.5 v. Seahawks |
Top |
26-27 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 55 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (475) plus the points versus the Seattle Seahawks (476). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (1-3) won their first game of the season last Sunday with their 31-23 upset win at Houston as a 3.5-point underdog. Seattle (4-0) remains unbeaten this season after they defeated Miami on the road last week by a 31-23 score as a 4.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS PLUS THE POINTS: Earning their first win of the season was a good start — but Minnesota remains in an urgent situation with Green Bay and Chicago only having one loss between the both of them in the NFC North. The Vikings have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after losing two of their last three games. Quarterback Kirk Cousins has received his usual level of criticism during the losing streak — but he has led an offense that has scored 61 combined points over the last two games and that has reached the 30-point threshold in three of their four games this season. Justin Jefferson has emerged as a solid replacement for Stefon Diggs and a good complement to Adam Thielen — he has 11 receptions for 278 yards. Minnesota generated 410 yards last week — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after gaining at least 400 yards in their last game. Delvin Cook has been outstanding this season with two straight 100-yard rushing efforts. He ran the ball 27 times for 130 yards and two touchdowns last week. Cook’s success running the football allowed the Vikings to control the time of possession for 36:31 minutes — and this will be the formula for success tonight to keep Russell Wilson off the field. Minnesota rushed for 162 yards overall against the Texans — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. The Vikings are also 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games in October. Seattle looks to become 5-0 on the season for the first time in franchise history. They have passed for at least 275 yards in all four of their games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after passing for at least 275 yards in three straight games. But the bigger concern is their defense that is allowing 476.8 total YPG. The Seahawks are being outgained by -60.5 net YPG this season — it is their +5 net turnover margin that has helped them overcome that disparity. But the turnovers are fickle — and Seattle will not have the services of their star defensive back Jamal Adams for this game as he deals with a groin injury. As it is, the Seahawks have allowed at least 312 passing yards in all four of their games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 275 passing yards in three straight games. Seattle returns home where they will not have any fans in the stadium — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 home games. The Seahawks are also just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games against fellow AFC opponents.
FINAL TAKE: Cousins has the reputation of folding under the bright lights of nationally-televised prime-time games — but the numbers do not support that claim for Sunday Night Football. Cousin has led his team to a victory in four of his six starts on a Sunday night. Furthermore, his 320.5 passing YPG average, 73.3% completion percentage, and his 117.3 Passer Rating represent the best marks of all NFL quarterbacks playing on Sunday Night Football. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the Minnesota Vikings (475) plus the points versus the Seattle Seahawks (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-11-20 |
Jaguars v. Texans -5.5 |
Top |
14-30 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Houston Texans (460) minus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (459). THE SITUATION: Houston (0-4) remained winless last week after their 31-23 upset loss at Minnesota last Sunday despite being a 3.5-point favorite. Jacksonville (1-3) has lost three straight games after their 33-25 loss at Cincinnati last week as a 1-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TEXANS MINUS THE POINTS: Houston sacked head coach and general manager Bill O’Brien after Sunday’s loss. The speculation is that J.J. Watt’s frustration with O’Brien finally boiled over which resulted in a verbal altercation between the two. When the star players begin to turn on you, then ownership needed to make a move to change the atmosphere. Because Watt demonstrated leadership to take on O’Brien in a move he had to think would cause waves, I expect a big from him and the rest of the team as they rally around each other and interim head coach Romeo Crennel who is universally-liked on the team. At 73-years old, Crennel not only replaces Pete Carroll as the league’s elder statesman at head coach but he will be the oldest head coach in NFL history. As it is, the Texans have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games when staying at home after a loss at home. Houston has also covered the point spread in their last 3 games after an upset loss at home. The biggest problem for this team is their run defense as they rank last in the league by allowing 181.1 rushing YPG. They have allowed all four of their opponents to rush for at least 162 yards this season — but not only have they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after allowing at least 150 rushing yard in two straight games but they have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in three straight games. Jacksonville has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. The Jaguars’ defense has issues of their own after allowing the Bengals to rack up 505 yards last week with 205 of those yards coming on the ground. Jacksonville has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 30 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after allowing at least 200 rushing yards. The Jags will be without cornerback D.J. Hayden who was placed on injured reserve this week with a hamstring injury. Look for Deshaun Watson to have a big game against the inexperienced Jacksonville secondary. The Jaguars have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road as an underdog. And in their last 9 games in October, Jacksonville has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of these contests.
FINAL TAKE: Teams that fired their head coach midseason have only covered the point spread twice in these last eight situations — but that limited sample size deserves some context. Often these moves are made later in the season when the team is out of playoff contention and planning their offseason. And often the fired head coach was generally liked and respected — Carolina laid an egg in their first game after Ron Rivera was fired late in the year as they appeared dejected with the move by ownership. I suspect the Houston players have had the Wizard of Oz on loop all week because they think that the “wicked witch is dead.” The Texans won both meetings between these two teams last season so they have to think this is a winnable game if they get back to basics. 25* AFC South Game of the Month with the Houston Texans (460) minus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (459). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-10-20 |
Miami-FL v. Clemson -14.5 |
Top |
17-42 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Clemson Tigers (318) minus the points versus the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (317). THE SITUATION: Clemson (3-0) is unbeaten so far this season after their 41-23 victory over Virginia last week as a 27.5-point favorite. Miami (3-0) is also undefeated on the season after they crushed Florida State two weeks ago by a 52-10 score as a 12-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Hurricanes look to be an improved team after second-year head coach Manny Diaz modernized his offense by bringing in former SMU offensive coordinator Rhett Lashlee to implement his version of an up-tempo spread offense while matching him with former Houston QB D’Eriq King who transferred to the program in the offseason. Miami is 7th in the nation by averaging 43.3 PPG which is taking a lot of pressure off their usually-talented defense. But after playing UAB, Louisville (now 1-3), and the Seminoles (who are a mess), this is a significant upgrade in competition. Yet the Hurricanes have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win by at least 20 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. Miami generated 517 yards of offense against Florida State after gaining 485 yards against Louisville — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after gaining at least 475 yards in two straight games. We are supposed to believe that this Hurricanes’ defense is loaded — but they did lose 25.5 of their sacks from last season. There are warning signs that this is not an elite unit. Louisville — the team Georgia Tech beat last night — generated 516 yards against them two weeks ago while exposing the Miami defense against both the run (209 rushing yards allowed) and the pass (307 passing yards allowed). The Hurricanes are allowing 3.96 Yards-Per-Carry which is 10th in the ACC in run defense. Miami’s Achilles heel in their bigger games last season was their suspect offensive line that struggled in the run game while surrendering 51 sacks which was the most of all Power Five conference teams. Four starters return from that group who are now coached by Garin Justice. They face a handful of future NFL players from this Clemson front seven that has racked up 27 tackles-for-loss along with 13 sacks already this season. The Tigers have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games after a win by at least 20 points. They also have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. The Tigers allowed Virginia to generate 417 yards last week in their comfortable victory — and that lackluster effort is probably just what defensive coordinator Brent Venables needs to get his unit’s attention in practice this week. Clemson tends to raise their level of play at this point in the season. Since 2015, Dabo Swinney’s team is just 12-12-1 ATS against FBS opponents in their opening games through the first weekend in October. The offense averages 34.2 PPG in those contests with 42% of their victories being by at least three touchdowns. Swinney is still learning his team while experimenting with some things — and the schedule is usually pretty soft. However, from the second week of October through the rest of the season since 2015, the Tigers are 29-15-2 ATS with a 40.8 PPG scoring average along with 51% of their victories being by at least three touchdowns. After their 21-20 scare against the Cavaliers last year, Clemson’s next eight regular-season victories were by an averaging winning margin of +42.1 PPG with the team outgaining their opponents by +348 net YPG. The Tigers have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games. Furthermore, Clemson is 6-1-1 ATS in October — and the Hurricanes have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games in October.
FINAL TAKE: This is Clemson’s first high-profile game since their 42-25 loss to LSU in the National Championship Game — so I expect Trevor Lawrence and company to be very motivated. This Miami team lacks big-game experience — and this is a program that has lost their last three opportunities to defeat a top-ten team. A paper tiger will be exposed to real tigers. 25* CBB ACC Game of the Month with the Clemson Tigers (318) minus the points versus the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (317). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-09-20 |
Heat v. Lakers UNDER 216.5 |
Top |
111-108 |
Loss |
-108 |
5 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (709) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (710) in Game Five of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (67-23) took a 3-1 lead in the NBA Finals on Tuesday with their 102-96 victory over the Heat. Miami (57-35) looks to keep their championship dreams alive in this must-win game for them. This game will be played on a neutral court in Orlando.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Heat were able to get Bam Adebayo back on the court in Game Four where he played over 33 minutes. With the two days of rest since that game, Adebayo should be able to at least match that amount of time on the court tonight. As I argued for Game Two last Friday (our NBA Total of the Year), playing without Adebayo would have a significant impact on a higher-scoring game. The highest two scoring games in this series were Games Two and Three which Adebayo did not play — 238 and 219 combined points were scored in those two games. Adebayo’s return to the court leads to lower scoring games. For starters, he is Miami’s best interior defender. Anthony Davis can almost score at will if he is being defended by Meyers Leonard or Kelly Olynyk. But Leonard and Olynyk are both capable outside shooters that Adebayo. Head coach Erik Spoelstra has his team play at a faster pace when Adebayo is not on the court. In all, Adebayo’s presence on the court tonight means better defense for the Heat along with a slower pace and less 3-point shooting. Miami has been outrebounded by seven boards in each of the four games in this series. The Heat have then played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after being outrebounded by at least five boards in three straight games. Miami has also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing with at least two days of rest. And in their last 6 playoff games when trailing in the series, the Heat have played 5 of these games Under the Total. Los Angeles has played 17 of their last 25 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a victory by 6 points or less. Additionally, the Lakers have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread. Head coach Frank Vogel made a nice coaching adjustment on Tuesday by giving Anthony Davis the defensive assignment against Jimmy Butler. Not only does this make Butler’s job scoring at the rim more of a challenge but Davis was playing off Butler at the top of the key while seemingly daring him to take 3-pointers. Yet Butler only laughed three shots from downtown — missing all three attempts. Miami ended that game with a 42.7% field goal percentage which was tied for the lowest shooting mark in their last fourteen games. The Lakers have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after outrebounding their opponent by at least 5 boards in three straight games.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total. Expect another lower-scoring game. 25* NBA Friday Night O/U Special Feature with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (709) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (710). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-09-20 |
Yankees v. Rays +1.5 |
Top |
1-2 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Rays (934) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the New York Yankees (933) listing both starting pitchers Gerrit Cole and Tyler Glasnow in Game Five of their American League Divisional Series. THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (44-22) looks to rebound from their 5-1 loss to the Yankees yesterday in Game Four of this series. New York (37-29) has won four of their last six games after their win on Thursday. This game is being played on a neutral field at San Diego’s Petco Park with the Rays the designed home team batting last tonight.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAYS PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: Tampa Bay has won 14 of their last 16 games after a loss — and they have won 6 of their last 7 games after a loss by at least four runs. The Rays have also won 4 of their last 5 games after not scoring more than two runs in their last game — and they have won 37 of their last 55 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. And while they managed just three base hits yesterday, they have then won 6 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than four base hits in their last game. They give the ball to Glasnow who is 5-1 with a 4.08 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP this season. The tall right-hander registered 92 strikeouts in just 57 1/3 innings of work. The sabermetrics are bullish on Glasnow with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.04 and 2.75 moving forward. He was more effective away from home where he had a 3.45 ERA with a 1.09 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .190 in six starts. Glasnow has punched out 18 batters in the 11 innings he has thrown in this postseason. The Rays have won 10 of their last 11 games with Glasnow making the start with the Total set in the 7 to 8.5 range. He will likely go through the Yankees’ batting order once before giving way to Blake Snell who was 4-2 with a 3.24 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP in eleven regular-season starts. Snell has a 3.37 ERA in his 10 2/3 innings of work in these playoffs. New York has lost 7 of their last 8 road games after winning four or five of their last six games. The Yankees have also lost 11 of their last 16 games on the road after playing at least three straight games against an AL East rival. The Yankees counter with Cole who will be making his first-ever career start on just three days of rest after he pitched Game One of this series. While Cole was 7-3 with a 2.84 ERA in the regular season, his ERA rose to a 3.67 mark in his six starts on the road. The sabermetrics also call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.21 and 3.38 respectively. He also has a 3.45 ERA in his 13 innings of postseason work this year. Nothing wrong with an ERA expectation in the mid-3s — but it certainly changes the betting dynamic when looking at his frontline numbers or evaluating him from his spectacular 2019 season with the Houston Astros. The Rays have won 6 of their last 8 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15.
FINAL TAKE: The Yankees have lost 3 straight playoff games when the series was tied. And Tampa Bay has won 11 of its last 15 games as an underdog. I think this game is closer to being a pick ‘em — so the ability to seize the valuable +1.5 Run-Line (with the home team!) at a price below my -150 threshold presents outstanding value. 25* MLB AL East Run-Line of the Year with the Tampa Bay Rays (934) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the New York Yankees (933) listing both starting pitchers Gerrit Cole and Tyler Glasnow. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-08-20 |
Rays v. Yankees OVER 9 |
Top |
1-5 |
Loss |
-100 |
1 h 28 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Rays (925) and the New York Yankees (926) listing both starting pitchers Ryan Thompson and Jordan Montgomery in Game Four of their American League Divisional Series. THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (44-21) took a 2-1 lead in this best-of-five series yesterday with their 8-4 victory in Game Three of this series. New York (36-29) has lost the last two games in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Rays have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a win by at least four runs — and they have played 24 of their last 36 games after a game where they scored at least eight runs in their last game. Tampa Bay scored seven runs in their Game Two victory on Tuesday — and they have then played 17 of their last 26 games Over the Total after scoring at least seven runs in two straight games. They turn to Thomson as their opener tonight who is 1-2 with a 4.44 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP in 26 1/3 innings of work this season — but he sees his ERA and WHIP skyrocket to an 8.49 and 1.80 marks with an opponent’s batting average of .340 in 11 2/3 innings away from home. Ryan Yarbrough will likely then be the bulk pitcher for the Rays in this game — he was 1-4 with a 3.56 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP in 55 2/3 innings. The deeper sabermetrics are not encouraging for Yarbrough with his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.44 and 4.37 respectively moving forward. He faces a Yankees team that is scoring 7.3 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .270 batting average along with a .371 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .892 over that span. New York has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Yankees have now played five straight Overs — and not only have they then played 29 of their last 43 games away from home Over the Total after playing two straight Overs but they have also played 19 of their last 27 games on the road Over the Total after playing at least three straight games Over the Total. The Bronx Bombers have also played 4 straight games Over the Total when favored. They counter with Montgomery who is 2-5 with a 5.11 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in ten starts. But while the left-hander had a 3.71 ERA with a 1.09 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .238 in six starts at home, those numbers jump to a 7.27 ERA with a 1.62 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .303 in four road starts. New York has played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total with Montgomery pitching when favored in the -125 to -175 price range.
FINAL TAKE: Tampa Bay is also swinging hot bats right now — they are scoring 5.4 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .258 batting average along with a .328 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .787 in those games. 25* MLB AL East Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Rays (925) and the New York Yankees (926) listing both starting pitchers Ryan Thompson and Jordan Montgomery. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-07-20 |
Padres v. Dodgers -1.5 |
Top |
5-6 |
Loss |
-100 |
2 h 58 m |
Show
|
At 9:08 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Dodgers (920) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the San Diego Padres (919) listing both starting pitchers Clayton Kershaw and Zach Davies in Game Two of the National League Divisional Series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (46-17) has won seven straight games after their 5-1 victory over the Padres in the opening game of this NLDS yesterday. San Diego (39-25) had won two straight games after dropping the first game of their best-of-three wildcard series with St. Louis. This game will be played on a neutral field at Global Life Field in Arlington, Texas with the Dodgers the designated home team that will bat last.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DODGERS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Los Angeles has won 40 of their last 55 games after a victory — and they have won 36 of their last 51 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. And while the Dodgers have played four straight Unders, they have then won 26 of their last 33 games after playing at least three straight Unders. And in their last 6 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%, LA has won 5 of these contests. They give the ball to Kershaw who is 6-2 with a 2.16 ERA and a 0.84 WHIP in ten regular season starts. He did his better pitching away from Dodger Stadium this season where he enjoyed a 1.84 ERA with a 0.68 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .163 in seven starts. The left-hander was outstanding last Thursday in his start in the wildcard series against the Brewers where he allowed no runs and just three hits in 8 innings of work while striking out 13 batters and walking just one hitter. I am well aware of Kershaw’s struggles in the postseason — we have made a lot of money over the years betting against him (or taking Overs) with his career 4.63 playoff ERA. I think this is an instance where the lack of fans in the stadium is alleviating pressure Kershaw placed on himself when pitching with playoff urgency. His start last Thursday was not only the best start in playoff action in his career but it was also his best start at any time since May 23rd 2016 according his Game Score rating. Kershaw changed his offseason workout program to regain velocity on his fastball while also altering his routine between starts. I think he is primed for another outstanding outing pitching in the Dallas area where he grew up. Kershaw has not allowed more than an earned run in three straight starts — and not only have the Dodgers won 24 of their last 27 games when he was starting after not allowing more than two earned runs in two straight games but LA has won 9 of their last 10 games when Kershaw was pitching after not allowing more than one earned run in at least two straight starts. San Diego has lost 21 of their last 30 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The Padres have also lost 5 of their last 8 games after a loss by at least four runs. Additionally, San Diego has lost 21 of their last 30 games after not scoring more than two runs in their last game — and they have lost 4 straight games after failing to score more than a run in a loss to a divisional rival. Furthermore, the Padres have lost 32 of their last 47 games as an underdog — and they have lost 5 straight playoff games as a dog. They counter with Davies who is 7-4 with a 2.73 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP in twelve regular season starts. I am skeptical of the right-hander due to his SIERA and xFIP that project an ERA of 4.32 and 4.14 moving forward. He struggled in his start last Thursday against the Cardinals in the playoffs where he allowed four earned runs in 2 innings of work. The Brewers may have created the blueprint as to how to handle him — lay off his sinker and other junk pitches that fall out of the strike zone. Patience at the plate is playoff baseball anyways. And the San Diego bullpen is a mess right now. With Mike Clevinger only able to pitch one inning yesterday, the Padres’ pen used eight pitchers for the third straight playoff game after “only” using seven bullpen pitchers in their opening playoff game to the Cardinals. Davies (and this overworked bullpen) faces a Dodgers team that has won 39 of their last 55 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. LA is scoring 6.0 Runs-Per-Game against right-handed starting pitchers with a .255 batting average along with a .325 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .814.
FINAL TAKE: Of course, the team trends mentioned above do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we are laying in this game. This is the fourteenth straight game where the Dodgers were priced as a favorite above my -150 threshold (where I will not endorse a straight-up money-line play). LA has won ten of these games by more than one run while losing two of the games straight-up and winning just once by just one run. The value with the Dodgers is to lay the -1.5 Run-Line. 25* MLB National League West Run-Line of the Year with the Los Angeles Dodgers (920) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the San Diego Padres (919) listing both starting pitchers Clayton Kershaw and Zach Davies. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-07-20 |
Marlins v. Braves OVER 8.5 |
Top |
0-2 |
Loss |
-100 |
1 h 24 m |
Show
|
At 2:08 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Miami Marlins (917) and the Atlanta Braves (918) listing both starting pitchers Pablo Lopez and Ian Anderson in Game Two in the National League Divisional Series. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (38-25) has won three straight games after winning Game One of this series yesterday by a 9-5 score. Miami (33-30) saw their three-game winning streak snapped in the loss. This game will be played at Minute Maid Park in Houston with the Braves the technical home team batting last.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Over is 12-4-4 in the Braves’ last 20 games after a victory — and the Over is 17-6-5 in their last 28 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Atlanta has also played 15 of their last 19 games Over the Total after winning two games in a row. Additionally, the Braves have played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total with the number set in the 8 to 8.5 range. And in their last 33 games as a favorite, the Over is 20-9-4. They give the ball to Anderson who is with 3-2 with a 1.95 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in six starts. The deeper metrics are not as bullish with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.82 and 3.45 moving forward. Miami has played 19 of their last 29 games Over the Total after a loss — and they have played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a loss by at least four runs. The Marlins have also played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after allowing at least nine runs in their last game. Additionally, Miami has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total with the number set in the 7 to 8.5 range. And in their last 7 second games to a new series, the Marlins have played 5 of these games Over the Total. The Miami bullpen surrendered four runs in the final three innings yesterday — and they have played 8 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a game where their bullpen allowed at least three earned runs in their last game. They counter with Lopez who was 6-4 with a 3.61 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in eleven regular-season starts. But while the right-hander had a 2.56 ERA with a 0.95 WHIP in five starts at home, those numbers rose to a 4.91 ERA with a 1.48 WHIP in six starts on the road. He has not allowed more than two earned runs in his last three starts — but the Marlins have played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total when Lopez is pitching after not allowing more than two earned runs in his last two starts. He faces a hot-hitting Braves team that is scoring 6.0 Runs-Per-Game against right-handed starting pitchers with a .272 batting average, .346 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .835. The Over is also 16-6-3 in Miami’s last 25 games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Atlanta has seen the Over go 17-7-3 in their last 27 games against NL East opponents — and the Over is 21-10-2 in Miami’s last 33 games against NL East divisional rivals. 25* MLB Network Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Miami Marlins (917) and the Atlanta Braves (918). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-06-20 |
Lakers -7.5 v. Heat |
Top |
102-96 |
Loss |
-105 |
6 h 43 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Lakers (707) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (708) in Game Four of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (66-23) lost their first game in the NBA Finals on Sunday with their 115-104 upset loss as a 9-point favorite. Miami (57-34) still trails by a 2-1 margin in this series. This game will be played on a neutral court in Orlando.
REASONS TO TAKE THE LAKERS MINUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles has responded with victories in all three of their postseason losses this year — and their average winning margin in those games is+13 Points-Per-Game. They have also covered the point spread in all 3 games this season when they lost by double-digits as a favorite laying at least 6 points. The Lakers were flat in Game Three. They shot just 43% from the field which was their lowest field goal percentage in their last twelve games. They allowed the Heat to make 51.2% of their shots which was the worst defensive performance in their last five games. After committing only ten turnovers in Game Two, LA turned the ball over ten times in just the 1st quarter in Game Three en route to 20 turnovers for the game. Anthony Davis was slowed by committing three personal fouls in the first half. He only played 33 minutes and scored only 15 minutes after scoring at least 32 points in the first two games of this series. Davis was simply not very active on Sunday as he attempted only nine shots despite the Heat lacking credible defenders inside the paint given the injury to Bam Adebayo. Davis has failed to score at least 20 points only sixteen times this season. After a lackluster Game Three in the Western Conference Finals against Denver, Davis was spectacular in the next two games averaging 30.5 PPG. The Lakers should also score more points in transition in this game. After netting +6.1 points per 100 possession clip in transition in Game One and +1.1 points per 100 possession mark in transition in Game Two, LA had -1.4 points per 100 possession rating in Game Three. They had adequate transition scoring chances that represented 12.1% of their possessions on Sunday, but they only scored at 90.9 points per 100 possession rate. The Lakers entered this series averaging 23.3 points per game via transitions which was tops in the NBA playoffs with 18.5% of their possessions coming from transition. Los Angeles’ loss snapped a four-game winning streak — but they have still won 22 of their last 29 games after winning three of their last four games. They also have won 23 of their last 34 games after winning four of their last five contests. The Lakers are still dominating Miami on the boards. Their 50-43 advantage on the boards in Game Three was the narrowest that margin has so far been in this series. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after outrebounding their last three opponents by at least five boards — and this includes them covering the point spread in four of these last five situations. Miami played their best defensive game in their last nine contests by holding LA to 43% shooting. They received a superhuman effort from Jimmy Butler who scored 40 points with 13 assists and 11 rebounds in his first career triple-double in the playoffs. This was the second-best Game Score registered by Basketball-Reference in the playoffs since 1984 which is how far back they can measure that metric. After logging in 45 minutes to carry his team to victory, it is highly unlikely that Butler can come close to replicating that performance. Butler made 14 of his 20 shots on Sunday — but he made only 45.1% of his shots from the field during the regular season. And Butler has scored more than 30 points in nine of his 44 playoff games since he became an All-Star in 2015 — so it was a relatively rare occurrence. As it is, the Heat have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a double-digit win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after a double-digit victory as an underdog. Miami has also failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 27 games on the road after scoring at least 115 points. The Heat were without the injured Bam Adebayo and Goran Dragic on Sunday which made Butler’s effort even more spectacular. Dragic will probably not play in this series but Adebayo has been upgraded to questionable for tonight’s game with his neck injury. He wanted to play on Sunday but was not cleared by the Miami medical staff. Even if he does take the court, it remains questionable how effective he can be (as we learned, unfortunately, last night with both Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley not being effective playing with injuries despite participating in practices at the end of the week).
FINAL TAKE: The Lakers have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games when playing with revenge from an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing with revenge from an upset loss were they were favored by at least 7 points. Look for LA to come out with similar intensity as they did in Game One of this series which they won by 18 points. 25* NBA Game of the Year with the Los Angeles Lakers (707) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (708). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-06-20 |
Yankees v. Rays -122 |
Top |
5-7 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Tampa Bay Rays (904) versus the New York Yankees (903) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Glasnow and Deivi Garcia in Game Two of their American League Divisional Series. THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (42-21) saw their six-game winning streak snapped yesterday with their 9-3 loss to the Yankees in the opening game of their ALDS. New York (36-27) has won three straight games as well as four of their last five contests. This game will be played on a neutral field at San Diego’s Petco Park. The Rays are the technical home team who will bat last.
REASONS TO TAKE TAMPA BAY WITH THE MONEY-LINE: The Rays should respond with a strong effort as they have won 13 of their last 16 games after a loss — and they have won 5 of their last 6 games after a loss by at least four runs. And while the Tampa Bay bullpen gave up five earned runs yesterday, they have then won 5 of their last 6 games after a game where their bullpen allowed at least four earned runs. The Rays have also won 19 of their last 26 games after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. And this remains a team that has won 36 of their last 53 games against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Glasnow who is 5-1 with a 4.08 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP this season. The tall right-hander registered 92 strikeouts in just 57 1/3 innings of work. The sabermetrics are bullish on Glasnow with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.04 and 2.75 moving forward. He was more effective away from home where he had a 3.45 ERA with a 1.09 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .190 in six starts. He was very good in Game One of the AL Wildcard round where he allowed two runs in 6 innings of work against Milwaukee on September 30th. His teams have won 12 straight games when he was pitching with the Total set in the 8 to 8.5 range. The Yankees were favored yesterday with Gerrit Cole on the hill but are underdogs tonight — and they have lost 7 of their last 9 games as a money-line underdog. New York has also lost 20 of their last 26 playoff games as an underdog. They counter with Deivi Garcia who is 3-2 with a 4.98 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP in six starts spanning 34 1/3 innings. The rookie did his best pitching at home at Yankee Stadium where he had a 3.20 ERA with a 1.02 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .224 — but those numbers rise to a 7.36 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, and .290 opponent’s batting average of .290 in his 14 2/3 innings of work pitching on the road. He faces a Tampa Bay team that has won 32 of their last 45 games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: The Yankees have lost 11 of their last 17 games when listed in the +/- 125 price range — and the Rays have won 12 of their last 15 games when priced in that +/- 125 range. 25* MLB American League East Game of the Year with the money-line on the Tampa Bay Rays (904) versus the New York Yankees (903) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Glasnow and Deivi Garcia. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-05-20 |
Falcons +6 v. Packers |
Top |
16-30 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 60 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Atlanta Falcons (279) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (280). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (0-3) will be playing with desperation tonight after losing their third straight game last Sunday by a 30-26 score despite being a 2.5-point favorite. Green Bay (3-0) is unbeaten so far this season after they upset New Orleans last Sunday night by a 37-30 score on the road as a 3.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE FALCONS PLUS THE POINTS: Atlanta had a 26-10 lead with 6 1/2 minutes to go in that game before surrendering the final 20 points in that game to lose to the Bears. That collapse came on the heels of them blowing a 39-24 lead with 5 minutes left in the game two weeks ago against the Cowboys in their 40-39 loss. The Falcons may not be able to keep a lead — but they remain competitive. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games as an underdog. Atlanta is moving the ball on offense — they are scoring 30.0 PPG while averaging 419.0 total YPG. They generated 371 yards last week against the Bears — and they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. They should be able to score against this Packers defense that is last in the NFL by allowing 6.6 Yards-Per-Play. Opposing quarterbacks have racked up a Passer Rating of 113.4 which is the 3rd highest in the league. Green Bay is also allowing opposing rushers to average 5.5 Yards-Per-Carry. The Falcons’ biggest problem is their defense that is ravaged with injuries in their secondary. They allowed the Bears to gain 437 yards last week after the Cowboys gained 570 yards against them. Atlanta has covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games after allowing at least 400 yards in their last game. Moving forward, the Falcons have covered the point spread in 5 straight games on the road. Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning three games in a row. The Packers have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a win on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after a point spread win. Additionally, the Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games off a game on the road where both teams scored at least 24 points. They will not have the services of their best wide receiver, Davante Adams, who will not play with a hamstring injury despite him participating in practice at the end of the week. Green Bay is dealing with a number of injuries with wide receiver Allan Lazard and linebacker Christian Kirksey out tonight.
FINAL TAKE: Atlanta has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. Look for them to keep this game close and perhaps pull the upset. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Special Feature with the Atlanta Falcons (279) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (280). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-04-20 |
Eagles v. 49ers OVER 45 |
Top |
25-20 |
Push |
0 |
3 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (277) and the San Francisco 49ers (278). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (0-2-1) enters this game coming off a 23-23 tie with Cincinnati where they were 5.5-point favorites. San Francisco (2-1) returns home after winning their two games in the Meadowlands which concluded with their 36-9 win against the Giants last week.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Much has been made of the struggles Carson Wentz is experiencing. He has the lowest Passer Rating of all qualifying quarterbacks in the league. He is completing only 59.8% of his passes which is just 28th of qualifying NFL quarterbacks. He is working behind a depleted offensive line riddled with injuries. Yet despite all this, the Eagles did generate 381 yards last week — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The good news for Wentz is the Miles Sanders has been upgraded to probable to offer him a credible rushing threat that should take some of the pressure off him. The running back has generated 190 rushing yards over his last two games with a crisp 5.0 Yards-Per-Carry average. Last week’s game finished Under the Total —and the Eagles have played 6 straight road games Over the Total after a game that finished Under the Total. And while Philly has yet to cover the point spread this season, they have then played 7 straight games away from home Over the Total after not covering the point spread in two straight games. Philly did hold the Bengals to just 48 rushing yards last week — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total if they did not allow more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. Furthermore, the Eagles have played a decisive 41 of their last 61 games on the road Over the Total — and this tightens to them playing 18 of their last 23 road games Over the Total when they are the underdog. San Francisco has played 14 of their last 22 games Over the Total after a win by at least three touchdowns. The 49ers have also played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. The Niners held the Jets and the Giants to only 3 and 6 points in the first half in their last two games — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after not allowing more than a touchdown in the first half in two straight games. San Francisco is dealing with a long list of injuries — Nick Bosa, Richard Sherman, Dee Ford along with cornerbacks Emmanuel Moseley and Akhello Witherspoon are all out for this game. But the 49ers are getting healthy on offense with tight end George Kittle and wide receiver Deebo Samuel upgraded to probable for this game. QB Jimmy Garoppolo remains out with his ankle injury but backup Nick Mullens has proven himself to be more than capable of operating Kyle Shanahan’s offense at a highly proficient rate. Mullens completed 25 of 36 passes last week for 343 yards without all team’s offensive weapons. The Niners generated 420 yards of offense in that game — and the Over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. San Francisco returns home where they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total — and they have played 5 straight games Over the Total against teams with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: The Over is 9-3-1 in the 49ers’ last 13 games against fellow NFC opponents — and the Over is also 9-3-1 in their last 13 games when favored. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (277) and the San Francisco 49ers (278). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-03-20 |
Auburn v. Georgia UNDER 44.5 |
Top |
6-27 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 43 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Auburn Tigers (153) and the Georgia Bulldogs (154). THE SITUATION: Auburn (1-0) comes off a 29-13 win over Kentucky last Saturday as a 6.5-point favorite in the opening game of their season. Georgia (1-0) also won their first game of the season last Saturday when defeated Arkansas on the road as a 6.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Tigers’ 29 points is a bit deceptive regarding the quality of their offensive effort last week. Auburn only gained 324 yards of offense last week. They were given a short field from a fumble recovery near the Red Zone along with a failed fake punt by the Wildcats. The Tigers rushed for only 91 yards on 30 carries with their best run being of just 12 yards. Auburn has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after failing to rush for at least 100 yards in their last game. The Tigers now go on the road where they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total as an underdog overall. Additionally, Auburn has played 11 of their last 17 road games Under the Total as a dog getting 7.5 to 14 points. And in their last 5 games against SEC foes, the Tigers have played 4 of these games Under the Total. Auburn will have trouble moving the ball against what might be the best defensive unit in the country. Georgia returns eight starters from a defense that led the nation by allowing only 12.6 PPG last season. The Bulldogs’ defense held the Razorbacks last week to just 280 yards. Both of Arkansas’ scoring drives were just 24 and 43 yards. Georgia has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total after a win by 20 or more points. The Bulldogs have also played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. But the Georgia offense is an entirely different story. For starters, who will be their starter under center? Redshirt freshman Dawn Mathis got the start last week but struggled to move the offense with the Bulldogs leading by just a 7-5 score at halftime. Junior Stetson Bennett came on in relief with the former walk-on completing 20 of 29 passes for 211 yards to lead his to the easy win. That performance will likely be enough for head coach Kirby Smart to tap him as his starter. Yet Georgia still averaged only 4.3 Yards-Per-Play against Arkansas while generating 360 hidden yards stemming from their defense and special teams to help get their 37 points — and one of their scores came from a 30-yard interception return for a touchdown. Former USC QB J.T. Daniels was also medically cleared to play this week after recovering from the torn ACL he suffered in the opening game last year for the Trojans — but the spring transfer has only begun full-contact practices on Monday. The problem for Georgia is this unsettled QB situation is combined by a young offensive line as well as a rebuilt running back and wide receiver groups. The Bulldogs rushed for only 121 yards last week while averaging 2.9 Yards-Per-Carry. Georgia has played 7 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 4 straight Unders against teams ranked in the top-ten. The Under is also 28-9-2 in the Bulldogs’ last 39 games at home — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total when favored.
FINAL TAKE: Georgia won last year’s meeting on the road by a 21-14 score. Tigers’ QB made the start last year in his freshman campaign — he completed 30 of 50 passes for 245 yards but he averaged just 4.9 Yards-Per-Attempt. These two teams have played 6 of their last 7 meetings Under the Total — and the Under is 4-0-1 in the last 5 encounters in Athens. 25* CFB SEC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Auburn Tigers (153) and the Georgia Bulldogs (154). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-03-20 |
Burnley v. Newcastle United |
Top |
1-3 |
Loss |
-100 |
1 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Burnley (200013) with the goal-line versus Newcastle United (200014). THE SITUATION: Burnley (W0-D0-L2) is looking for their first victory of the season after losing last Saturday at home to Southampton by a 1-0 score. Newcastle (W1-D1-L1) pulled out a 1-1 draw at Tottenham last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE BURNLEY WITH THE GOAL-LINE: Newcastle was very fortunate to get the one point from the Spurs last week. A controversial VAR handball call awarded the Magpies a penalty kick in extra time which Callum Wilson converted to earn the draw. Tottenham dominated the expected goals (xG) metric in that match with a 3.49 xG mark as compared to Newcastle’s 1.07 xG. The Magpies had a rough -20 net goal differential for the 2019-20 season — and they were 2nd to last in net xG differential with a -30.54 mark. They opened the season with a 2-0 victory over a struggling West Ham side — but they have played well in their last two games against Brighton and the Spurs. In these last two matches, Newcastle has generated just 0.70 non-penalty kick xG while allowing those two opponents to generate 4.31 non-penalty kick xG. The only shot that the Magpies have managed on target in their last two matches was that Wilson penalty kick in the waning moments of that match with Tottenham. After three games in league play, Newcastle is averaging only 1.06 xG. This team is riddled with injuries right now which is not a good development for mid-table teams that cannot afford to purchase roster depth. The Magpies return home to St. James where they have lost their last three matches in EPL action. Burnley lost a tough one to a likely top-ten team in the Saints last week — but they did hold them to just 0.55 xG. In their opening match against another top-ten (top-five?) side in Leicester City, they lost by a 4-2 score but won the expected goals battle by a 1.43-1.33 xG mark. The Clarets lost only two of their last sixteen EPL matches to close out 2019-20 — and they were W2-D5-L1 against top-ten opponents. For comparison's sake, their net xG differential was just -4.5 last season. Manager Sean Dyche gets the most of his talent at Burnley while playing a very disciplined and compact system. They have only allowed two Big Chances all season despite allowing five goals overall — a few were scored in freakish ways. This team has also been hit hard by injuries — but they do get starting defenseman James Tarkowski to anchor the backline again. The Clarets are also reliable when playing on the road where they are W3-D1-L1 in their last five EPL matches. Burnley generated 26 points away from home last season which was more than Arsenal, Tottenham, and Leicester City accrued.
FINAL TAKE: Burnley won one match and settled for a draw in their other encounter with Newcastle in league play last year. The Clarets need a win to jump up the table — and this is a golden opportunity. Burnley under Dyche is very consistent. A draw is likely the worst-case scenario — but I consider the Clarets the better team and they are playing on the road in an empty stadium. 25* English Premier League Match of the Month with Burnley (200013) with the goal-line versus Newcastle United (200014). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-02-20 |
Heat v. Lakers OVER 216 |
Top |
114-124 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 18 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (703) and the Los Angeles Lakers (704) in Game Two of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (65-22) won the opening game of this series on Wednesday with their 116-98 victory over the Heat as a 4.5-point favorite. Miami (56-33) has lost two of their last three games — and they suffered two critical injuries in that game to Bam Adebayo and Goran Dragic that have an immediate impact on this series moving forward. This game will be played on a neutral court in Orlando.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Miami hit only 42.7% of their shots on Wednesday which was the lowest shooting mark in their last four games. They also made just 11 of their 36 shots from downtown for a low 31% mark. The team was simply overwhelmed in the 2nd quarter after racing out to an early 13-point lead. Adebayo only played 21 minutes while Dragic managed just 14:50 minutes before leaving the game to their injuries. The Lakers nailed 60% of their 3-pointers in the first half en route to 65 points. The Heat have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a double-digit loss — and they have played 17 of their last 24 games Over the Total after losing two of their last three games. Moving forward, the injuries to Adebayo and Dragic forces head coach Erik Spoelstra to make some significant changes. He is going to play more small-ball — which means a faster tempo, more 3-pointers but a reliance on players with defensive liabilities. Without Adebayo and Dragic on the court, Miami has seen the average possessions per game rise from a 97.4 average to 101 possessions per game. The Heat have their worst Defensive Rating when Dragic is not on the court. His absence means more minutes for Tyler Herro who can be lights out on offense but is a work in progress on the defensive end of the court. Adebayo claims he is going to try to play tonight. We’ll see. Spoelstra will have to give more minutes to Kelly Olynyk in his absence which is another player with defensive limitations when playing against a player like Anthony Davis. Spoelstra will likely embrace more small-ball lineups and even more 3-point shooting in the hopes that his team can replicate the 38% shooting from behind the arc they enjoyed during the first two rounds of the playoffs. The Heat have now allowed at least 113 points in their last three games — and they have played 9 straight games on the road Over the Total after allowing at least 110 points in three straight games. They also have played 28 of their last 42 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 210-219.5 point range. Los Angeles coasted to victory despite making only 45.2% of their shots which was the lowest mark in their last four games. The Lakers raced out to a 65-48 halftime lead while nailing 60% of their 3-pointers in the first 24 minutes of that game. That was the sixth time that LA has scored at least 60 points in the first half of their sixteen playoff games. They have played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total after enjoying a 15-point lead at halftime. They also had a 10-point lead at halftime in their final game with Denver — and the Lakers have also played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total after generating double-digit halftime leads in two straight games. And in their last 20 games after a victory by at least 15 points, they have played 13 of these games Over the Total. The Lakers have an Offensive Rating of 115.7 which is 2nd best of all playoff teams. Davis scored 34 points on Wednesday and should have his way inside with Adebayo out (or less than 100%). Los Angeles outrebounded the Heat by a 54 to 36 margin in Game One — and Miami has played 8 straight road games Over the Total after a game where they were outrebounded by at least 15 boards.
FINAL TAKE: The Heat have to shoot their way to victory tonight — and if they miss, that triggers the Lakers’ transition offense from which they entered this series averaging 23.3 PPG in transition with it representing 18.5% of their offense. Miami has lost all three meetings with LA this season — and they have played 19 of their last 28 games Over the Total when playing with triple revenge. 25* NBA Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (703) and the Los Angeles Lakers (704). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-02-20 |
Cardinals v. Padres OVER 9 |
Top |
0-4 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 28 m |
Show
|
At 7:08 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the St. Louis Cardinals (977) and the San Diego Padres (978) (action — do not list starting pitchers). THE SITUATION: San Diego (38-24) forced a climactic third game in this series yesterday with their 11-9 victory over the Cardinals. St. Louis (31-29) won the opening game of this series on Wednesday by a 7-4 score.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Padres have now won four of their last five games — and they have played 26 of their last 37 games at home Over the Total after winning three of their last four games. San Diego has also played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a game where both teams scored at least eight runs — and they have played 19 of their last 27 games Over the Total after a game where they allowed at least nine runs. Furthermore, the Under is 5-1-1 in the Padres last 7 games both against teams with a winning record and at home hosting a team with a winning record. Manager Jayce Tingler has not announced a starting pitcher — and it just doesn’t matter as this will be a bullpen game before it is over. Likely candidate one to start the game is Adrian Morejon with his 2-2 record along with a 4.66 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in 19 1/3 innings consisting of nine appearances with four starts. Morejon sees his ERA rise to a 7.59 mark with a 1.50 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .295 in his 10 2/3 innings at home. Both his SIERA and xFIP scream to fade this guy with those analytics projecting an ERA of 8.10 and 7.53 moving forward based on his deeper peripheral numbers. Garrett Richards is candidate two to start the 1st inning as was in the rotation to start the season before being moved to the bullpen in anticipation of the playoffs. Richards has a 2-2 record with a 4.03 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in 51 1/3 innings this summer. His SIERA and xFIP assess he has been overachieving with their 4.55 and 4.46 ERA projections. Even worse, Richards has a 5.85 ERA with a 1.50 WHIP in 20 innings at home. Tingler will have to rely on a tired bullpen sooner rather than later in this game. After using seven relievers in Game One, Tingler went to the mound to change pitchers eight times yesterday. Six of his relievers have pitched in both games. Overall, the San Diego bullpen has logged in 13 2/3 innings of work after the 6 innings they logged-in yesterday. The Padres have played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a game where their bullpen pitched at least six innings. The San Diego bullpen already has a 4.66 ERA with a 1.39 WHIP for day games (and the lights will be off for most of this game on the west coast). St. Louis’ bullpen has pitched 15 innings over their last three games — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after having their bullpen pitch at least 13 combined innings over their last three games. The Cardinals have also played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. They counter with Flaherty who is 4-3 with a 4.91 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP in nine starts this season. But while the right-hander has a 2.67 ERA with a 0.96 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .186 at home, he is burdened with a 9.45 ERA with a 1.73 WHIP and .288 opponent’s batting average in four starts on the road. St. Louis has played 10 of their last 12 playoff games Over the Total as an underdog — and the Over is 17-6-1 in their last 24 games in the playoffs on the road.
FINAL TAKE: The Cardinals have scored 21 runs with a minimum of five runners players over their last three games. San Diego has scored 32 run overs over their last five games with a minimum of four runs scored in each game. UPDATE: Craig Stammen has been named the opening starting pitcher for the Padres with his 5.63 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. The Over remains strong — but let’s go with action rather than listing the starting pitchers, I don’t want anything messing this play up since the bet is, in part, against, all the available options for Tingler. 25* MLB Wildcard Playoff Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the St. Louis Cardinals (977) and the San Diego Padres (978) (action — do not list starting pitchers given the uncertainty with the Padres and because it just doesn’t matter). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-01-20 |
Broncos v. Jets UNDER 41.5 |
Top |
37-28 |
Loss |
-115 |
4 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (101) and the New York Jets (102). THE SITUATION: Denver (0-3) is winless so far this season with their 28-10 loss at home to Tampa Bay on Sunday as a 6-point underdog. New York (0-3) has also lost their first three games this season after their 36-7 loss at Indianapolis on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Broncos have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And with their game with the Buccaneers falling below the 42 point total, they have then played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a game that finished Under the Total. The Denver offense was a work in progress even before being hit hard by the injury bug. Quarterback Drew Lock is out indefinitely with a shoulder injury. Jeff Driskel led an offense that generated only 226 yards last week. He was relieved by Brett Rypien in that game — and after the former undrafted QB out of Boise State completed 8 of 9 passes for 53 yards (and an interception in the end zone), head coach Vic Fangio named him the starter for this game despite it being played on a short week. Wide receiver Cortland Sutton is on the IR with an ACL injury while running back Phillip Lindsay is questionable with his injury. The defense is also riddled with a long list of injuries with Von Miller’s ankle injury that put him on IR being the most significant — but they did receive good news this week with cornerback Bryce Callahan, strong safety Kareem Jackson, and nose tackle Shelby Harris all upgraded to probable and expected to start tonight. The Broncos have allowed 17 and 23 points in the first half of their first two games — but they have then played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total after allowing at least 17 points in the first half in two straight games. Denver did hold the Buccaneers to just 68 rushing yards last week — and they have played 7 straight games Under the Total after not allowing more than 75 rushing yards in their last contest. And while the Broncos surrendered 353 yards overall to Tampa Bay, the Under is 19-6-1 in their last 26 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Now Denver goes back on the road where the Under is 9-4-1 in the last 14 games. New York has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after allowing at least 35 points in their last contest. And while the Jets allowed the Colts to gain 353 yards last week, they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest. New York managed only 260 yards of offense last week with third-year quarterback Sam Darnold struggling under Adam Gase’s offense. The Jets are scoring only 12.3 PPG this season while averaging 263.7 total YPG. Injuries have not helped Darnold’s cause with running back Le’Veon Bell and rookie wide receiver Denzel Mims both on Injured Reserve and wide receiver Breshard Perriman out with a shoulder injury. Mims and Perriman were new additions this season to jumpstart the Jets’ offense that was 29th in the league by averaging 194.4 passing YPG and totaling just 17.2 PPG which was second-to-last in the NFL.
FINAL TAKE: New York has played 6 straight games Under the Total when hosting an AFC opponent — and Denver has played 20 of their last 26 games Under the Total against fellow teams from the AFC. While the Total is low, this is one of those games where one (or both) of these teams may not reach double-digits. 25* AFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (101) and the New York Jets (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-01-20 |
White Sox v. A's +101 |
Top |
4-6 |
Win
|
101 |
2 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 3:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the money-line on the Oakland A’s (964) versus the Chicago White Sox (963) listen both starting pitchers Mike Fiers and Dane Dunning in Game Three of their American League Wildcard Playoff Series. THE SITUATION: Oakland (37-25) evened this series at 1-1 yesterday with their 5-3 victory over the White Sox. Chicago (36-26) has now lost eight of their last nine games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE A’S WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Oakland has now won 19 of their last 27 home games against teams with a winning record — and they have won 7 of their last 10 home games when priced in the +/- 125 price range. The A’s have not surrendered more than four runs in three straight games — and they have then won 26 of their last 35 home games after not allowing more than four runs in their last three games. And while Oakland only stranded three runners yesterday as they struggled with getting players on base after the 1st inning, they have then won 6 of their last 8 games after stranding five or fewer batters in their last game. Manager Bob Melvin has decided this morning to give the ball to Fiers to be his starter — and this gives the A’s a number of advantages. First, he wanted to avoid sending out another left-hander with Sean Manaea his consideration after the White Sox won their fifteenth straight game against a left-handed starting pitcher on Tuesday against their Jesus Luzardo. Fiers is 6-3 with a 4.58 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP this season — but Oakland has won 16 of their last 20 home games with him making the start. The right-hander is also pitching on six days rest after scattering two runs in 5 innings of work in his last start on the road against the Dodgers last Friday. The A’s have won 14 of their last 16 home games with Fiers pitching with five or six days of rest. Fiers is nothing if not consistent — he has not allowed more than three earned runs in six of his last seven starts. The White Sox have lost 8 straight games against right-handed starting pitchers. Melvin will have a quick hook as soon as Fiers gets into trouble — he can then turn to Manaea to face the lefties in the White Sox starting lineup. Manaea is 4-3 with a 4.50 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP this season — but he sees his ERA and WHIP drop to a 3.91 and 0.95 WHIP in his 25 1/3 innings at home. Melvin can also turn to Frankie Montas for bulk inning work who has a has a 2.56 ERA with a 1.20 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .225 in 31 2/3 innings of work when pitching at home this season. Chicago has now lost 7 straight games as an underdog — and they have lost 7 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record. The White Sox have also lost 6 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have lost 10 of their last 14 road games as an underdog. They counter with Dunning who is 2-0 with a 3.97 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP in seven starts since being called up from their alternate training facility. But the book may be started to be written on the rookie who has been hit hard of nine runs (eight earned) along with nine hits in the seven innings of work he has completed in his last two starts. And while Dunning has a 3.72 ERA with a 0.93 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .162 at home, he sees his ERA rise to a 4.30 ERA with a 1.36 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .237 in his three road starts.
FINAL TAKE: While the White Sox are playing in their first postseason since 2008, the A’s have plenty of recent experience in the playoffs but have yet to get over the hump to advance to the next round. This experience along with perhaps the best bullpen in baseball (their 3.53 bullpen ERA was the best in MLB in the regular season) should make the difference for them to finally win another playoff series. 25* MLB American League Wildcard Game of the Year with the money-line on the Oakland A’s (964) versus the Chicago White Sox (963) listen both starting pitchers Mike Fiers and Dane Dunning. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-30-20 |
Yankees v. Indians +1.5 |
Top |
10-9 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 7:08 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Cleveland Indians (940) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the New York Yankees (939) listing both starting pitchers Carlos Carrasco and Masahiro Tanaka in Game Two of their American League Wildcard Playoff Series. THE SITUATION: Cleveland (35-26) looks to stave off elimination tonight after losing the opening game of this best-of-three series to the Yankees by a 12-3 score. New York (34-27) has won two of their last three games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE INDIANS PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: We had Cleveland last night — but the Bronx Bombers got to Shane Bieber early and often in that game. I remain wary of this Yankees team that is still only 13-18 away from Yankee Stadium where they are 21-9 this season. New York scores only 4.4 Runs-Per-Game on the road with a .226 batting average along with a .315 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .680. The Yankees have lost 15 of their last 22 games on the road — and they have lost 7 of their last 10 road games against teams with a winning record. This is also a team that has lost 12 of their last 17 road games in the playoffs. Furthermore, New York has lost 11 of their last 17 road games after a win by at least six runs. And this was the first time that Aaron Boone’s team has won a game against a team with a winning record in their last five games. They give the ball to Tanaka who is 3-3 with a 3.56 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in ten starts. The deeper sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.07 and 4.19 moving forward. Tanaka does have four starts on the road where he has a 2.33 ERA with a 1.14 WHIP this season — but I am not dismissing the ugly 6.05 ERA he had in fifteen starts (sixteen games) on the road last year along with a 1.42 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .287. The Yankees have lost 4 straight road games with Tanaka on the hill. He faces an Indians team that has won 5 of their last 7 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. While Cleveland has lost two of their last three games, they also have won seven of their last nine games overall — and they have won 8 of their last 12 games after losing two of their last three games. The Indians have also won 9 of their last 11 playoff games when trailing in the series. Cleveland has still won 6 of their last 8 games at home — and they have won 6 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Carrasco who is 3-4 with a 2.91 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP in twelve starts. The right-hander has been lights out over his last six starts where he owns a 1.66 ERA with a 1.03 WHIP.
FINAL TAKE: The Indians have won 10 of their last 16 games when avenging a loss where their opponent scored at least ten runs. Lastly, while these team trends do not even take into account the +1.5 Run-Line I am advocating for with this play, because the Yankees’ bullpen has blow 39.5% of their save opportunities this season, Cleveland is supported by an empirical Run-Line angle that has been 67% effective over the last five seasons. New York averages 5.4 Runs-Per-Game — and teams who score at least 5.1 Runs-Per-Game but whose bullpen blow at least 38% of their save opportunities now facing an American League team using a starting pitcher with an ERA of 4.20 or better have then covered the +1.5 Run-Line in 45 of these last 67 situations where these conditions applied. 25* MLB Run-Line of the Month with the Cleveland Indians (940) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the New York Yankees (939) listing both starting pitchers Carlos Carrasco and Masahiro Tanaka. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-30-20 |
Blue Jays v. Rays -130 |
Top |
2-8 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 49 m |
Show
|
At 4:07 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Tampa Bay Rays (944) versus the Toronto Blue Jays (943) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Glasnow and Hyun-Jin Ryu in Game Two of their American League Wildcard Playoff Series. THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (41-20) has won five straight games as well as ten of their last twelve contests with their 3-1 victory yesterday in the opening game of this best-of-three series. Toronto (32-29) has two straight games as well as nine of their last fifteen games as they hope to stave off elimination this afternoon.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAYS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Tampa Bay has won 13 of their last 16 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. The Rays have also won a dominant 39 of their last 51 games at home in Tropicana Field — and they have won 6 of their last 7 games with the Total set at 7 or lower. They give the ball to Glasnow who is 5-1 with a 4.08 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP in eleven starts. The laptops love the right-hander — and the attraction starts with his 92 strikeouts to just 22 walks in 57 1/3 innings of work. His SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 3.04 and 2.75 moving forward. He should have success against a Blue Jays team that has lost 5 of their last 6 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. He will also be supported by an outstanding bullpen that has a 2.27 ERA along with a 1.09 WHIP at home. The foursome of Nick Anderson, Pete Fairbank, Chaz Roe, and Diego Castillo has combined for a 1.95 ERA with a 32% punch out rate. If the Rays get a lead, they are very tough to beat. Toronto has lost 6 of their last 8 games after a loss — and they have lost 18 of their last 26 games after failing to score more than two runs in their last game. The Blue Jays have also lost 6 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have lost 20 of their last 26 road games with the Total set from 7 to 8.5 range. They counter with Ryu who is 5-2 with a 2.69 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP in twelve starts. The lefty sees his ERA rise to a 3.16 mark in his seven starts on the road. The sabermetrics also call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting ERA of 3.67 and 3.32 moving forward. Ryu also has a sketchy track record in the playoffs in his time with the Dodgers when he was not burdened with the pressure of being the team’s ace. Ryu has a 5.12 ERA with a 1.55 WHIP in eight starts spanning just 31 2/3 innings in the postseason.
FINAL TAKE: Ryu’s teams have lost 5 of their last 7 road games with him on the mound priced as an underdog in the +125 to +175 range. The Rays have won 9 of their last 12 games against left-handed starting pitchers. With the price for this game below my -150 threshold, let’s attack. 25* MLB TBS-TV Game of the Month with the money-line on the Tampa Bay Rays (944) versus the Toronto Blue Jays (943) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Glasnow and Hyun-Jin Ryu. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-29-20 |
Yankees v. Indians -102 |
Top |
12-3 |
Loss |
-102 |
16 h 50 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Cleveland Indians (932) versus the New York Yankees (931) listing both starting pitchers Shane Bieber and Lucas Giolito in Game One of their American League Wild Card Series. THE SITUATION: Cleveland (35-25) enters the playoffs having won seven of their last eight games after their 8-6 win over Pittsburgh on Sunday. New York (33-27) has lost four of their last five games as well as seven of their last nine contests with their 5-0 loss to Miami on Sunday. The Indians will be the home team for this best-of-three series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE INDIANS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Cleveland is peaking at the right time in this abbreviated season — and they have won 22 of their last 34 games after a victory. The Indians have also won 7 of their last 8 games after scoring at least 8 runs in their last game. As the higher 4th seed in this bracket matchup, Cleveland hosts this series where they have won 8 of their last 10 home games when priced as a favorite up to -150. They give the ball to Bieber who is 8-1 with a 1.63 ERA and a 0.87 WHIP in twelve starts. The right-hander had an incredible 122 strikeouts in his 77 1/3 innings — and he saw his ERA drop to a 1.23 mark in his four starts at home. He comes off five scoreless innings of work in his last start at home against the White Sox last Wednesday — and the Indians have won 10 of their last 12 games when Bieber is following a start where he did not allow an earned run. Cleveland has also won 9 of their last 11 games with Bieber pitching at night. New York has lost 18 of their last 27 games after a loss — and they have lost 8 of their last 12 games after a loss by at least four runs. The Yankees have also lost 10 of their last 13 road games after losing three of their last four games — and they have lost 10 of their last 15 road games in September. They counter with Cole who is 7-3 with a 2.84 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP in twelve starts. But while the right-hander has a 2.09 ERA at home in six starts, his ERA on the road rose to a 3.67 mark. His teams have also lost 4 of their last 5 road games with Cole pitching with the Total set at 7 or lower.
FINAL TAKE: While the Yankees were 19-9 at Yankee Stadium during the regular season, they were just 12-18 on the road while scoring only 4.2 Runs-Per-Game with a batting average of .220 along with a .311 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of 661. 25* MLB American League Game of the Month with the money-line on the Cleveland Indians (932) versus the New York Yankees (931) listing both starting pitchers Shane Bieber and Lucas Giolito. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-28-20 |
Chiefs v. Ravens -3 |
Top |
34-20 |
Loss |
-120 |
3 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (490) minus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (489). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (2-0) enters this showdown coming off a 33-16 win at Houston last Sunday as a 7.5-point favorite. Kansas City (2-0) rallied from a 17-6 deficit in the 3rd quarter to defeat the Chargers in Los Angeles in overtime by a 23-20 score as an 8.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAVENS MINUS THE POINTS: Baltimore comes into this game as the top team in the league in point differential with their 38-6 opening week against Cleveland. The Ravens have now won fourteen straight games in the regular season — and the 22 points they have allowed are the fewest in the league going into Week Three. Baltimore should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Ravens have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a win by at least two touchdowns. Baltimore has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 30 points in two straight contests. They return home to M&T Bank Stadium where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. Kansas City is showing signs of a Super Bowl hangover — the successful Patrick Mahomes’ rally against the Chargers last week was the fourth time in their last five games where he had to lead his team back from a double-digit deficit. I think the hole they dug themselves in last week is a canary in the coal mine regarding the champs thinking they can turn on and off their switch. This Ravens team is the wrong group to do that against. The Chiefs were outgained by the Charger by 65 yards — and rookie quarterback Justin Herbert led an offense that racked up 479 yards against their defense in his first game as a professional. Not great, Bob. Run defense was one of the liabilities for Kansas City last season in their Super Bowl run — and they are allowing 4.6 Yards-Per-Carry this season which is resulting in 150.4 rushing YPG. They are allowing their opponents a 62% Success Rate in their ground game as well which is 30th in the league. Baltimore is averaging 168 rushing YPG so far this season while averaging 34 rushing attempts per game. The Chiefs are also just 22nd in the NFL in Explosive Play Rate allowed while ranking last in Explosive Pass Play Rate allowed. The tackling for the Kansas City defenders has been shoddy — a product of the lack of a normal preseason along with perhaps some champions’ complacency. These are all bad signs for a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a loss where they failed to cover the point spread — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a win by 6 points or less. And in their last 8 games on field turf, the Chiefs have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of these games.
FINAL TAKE: Baltimore has had this game circled all offseason after losing to the Chiefs last year by a 33-28 score on September 22nd — and that was after they lost to them in December of 2018 against Mahomes by a 27-24 score in overtime. 25* NFL Game of the Month with the Baltimore Ravens (490) minus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (489). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-27-20 |
Packers v. Saints -3 |
Top |
37-30 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New Orleans Saints (488) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (487). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (1-1) looks to rebound from their 34-24 upset loss in Las Vegas against the Raiders on Monday as a 4-point favorite. Green Bay (2-0) has started the season unbeaten after defeating the Lions at home in Lambeau Field last week by a 42-21 score as a 7-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SAINTS MINUS THE POINTS: Head coach Sean Payton was livid with his team after they committed ten penalties accounting for 129 yards with five of those penalties accounting for first downs for the Raiders. The Saints are the most-penalized team in the league with 248 penalty yards after two games. Payton kept his team in Vegas overnight to discuss the mistakes his team has been making. Expect this team to come out on fire. As it is, they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. New Orleans has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 28 of their last 38 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Drew Brees is getting plenty of criticism this week for not throwing the ball downfield. Is he losing arm strength? Yeah, probably — but that is probably an overrated quality (at least, Brett Favre and Phill Simms say so). Certainly Brees misses wide receiver Michael Thomas who will be out for this game with his ankle injury. But even without Thomas last week, Brees led an offense that averaged 7.44 Yards-Per-Play — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after averaging at least 6.5 Yards-Per-Play in their last contest. The problem for New Orleans besides the penalties — or, another result of the penalties that kept FIVE drives alive — was that they only had the ball for 23:42 minutes in that game. The Saints gained 424 yards on Monday — and they have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after gaining at least 400 yards in their last game. They also have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last contest. The short week should not be a problem as they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games when playing with six days or less of rest. And in their last 41 games against teams with a winning record, New Orleans is 27-13-1 ATS. Before we crown the Packers the Super Bowl Championship for scoring 85 points in their first two games, lets remember that they did this against an injured Detroit defense and a Minnesota defense that lost five starters from last year’s team. Remember, Green Bay was outgained last season by their opponents but made it to the NFC Championship Game because they were 9-1 in one-possession games. They were closer to an 8-8/9-7 team, in practice, that a 13-3 team. The Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. Additionally, they are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Green Bay has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record at home.
FINAL TAKE: The Packers may be without Rodgers’ favorite target in Davante Adams after he injured his hamstring which kept him out of the second half last week against the Lions. Adams is going to try to play it looks like (and he is my fantasy line up tonight for Guinea Pig Nation) — but I am not optimistic. But Green Bay has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 meetings with the Saints. 25* NFC Game of the Month with the New Orleans Saints (488) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (487). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-27-20 |
Raiders v. Patriots -6.5 |
Top |
20-36 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 52 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (462) minus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (461). THE SITUATION: New England (1-1) looks to bounce back from their heartbreaking 35-30 loss at Seattle last Sunday night as a 4.5-point underdog where they failed to convert on the goal-line on the final play of the game that would have given them the victory. Las Vegas (2-0) comes off a triumphant 34-24 upset victory at home on Monday Night Football against New Orleans as a 4-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS MINUS THE POINTS: The Raiders earned an emotional win in their debut in their new Allegiant Stadium (down the road from the Hollywood Sports office) — but they now find themselves in a letdown situation after their perfect 2-0 start to the season. On a short week, Las Vegas has to make their second trip out east in three weeks to play at a 1 PM ET start — during a pandemic! — with the old 10 AM PT body clock problem. As it is, the Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 28 games after an upset victory as a home underdog. Las Vegas has also failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a win at home. The Raiders did generate 377 yards of offense against the Saints defense — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. But the bigger concern is that they were outgained by -47 net yards with New Orleans generating 424 yards despite only having the football for less than 24 minutes in that game. The Saints also gifted the Raiders 129 yards from their ten penalties with five of them directly producing first downs. New Orleans averaged a whopping 7.44 Yards-Per-Play on Monday. They are allowing 6.54 YPP after two games. They are also just 7-15-1 ATS in their last 23 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on the road with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. New England should respond with a strong effort as they are 48-23-1 ATS in their last 72 games after a straight-up loss in the Bill Belichick era. The Patriots’ offense looks fantastic under the direction of (a completely healthy again) Cam Newton. After rushing the ball 15 times for 75 yards with two touchdowns in the opening week, he torched the Seahawks for 397 passing yards by completing 30 of 44 passes — and he added another 44 yards on the ground with two more rushing scores. These are all great signs for Belichick whose teams have covered the point spread in 31 of their last 42 games after scoring at least 30 points. New England outgained Seattle by a 464-429 margin despite losing on the scoreboard. The Patriots are 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after gaining at least 400 yards in their last game. New England needs to tighten things up on defense — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 30 points and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after allowing at least 35 points in their last game. Belichick is the best in the business in having his defense take away the opposing offenses’ best weapon — so that means plenty of attention Raiders’ tight end Darren Waller who caught 12 passes for 103 yards on Monday. Las Vegas receiving corps drops off after Waller and first-round draft pick Henry Ruggs III is still dealing with an injury. The Patriots return home where they are a decisive 43-21-3 ATS in their last 67 games — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games with the total set at 45.5 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: The Raiders have been a great early story to the season — but they remain a team that averaged only 15 PPG over their final seven games while never topping 24 points so I am not completely sold that this is now a 30 PPG scoring attack despite scoring 68 points so far this season. This is also a team that got blown out by a 42-21 score to Tennessee, a 40-9 score at Kansas City, and a 34-3 score in New York to the Jets (!) in the final six weeks of the season. 25* NFL Blowout Game of the Month with the New England Patriots (462) minus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (461). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-27-20 |
Leicester v. Manchester City OVER 3.25 |
Top |
5-2 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 11:30 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between Leicester City (200105) and Manchester City (200106). THE SITUATION: Leicester City (W2-D0-L0) remained undefeated so far for the 2020-21 English Premier League campaign with their 4-2 win over Burnley last Sunday. Manchester City (W1-D0-L0) opened their EPL campaign last Monday with their 3-1 victory on the road at Wolverhampton.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Man City was impressive on Monday to score three times against a Wolves team that led the EPL last season with just 27 non-penalty kick Big Chances conceded. Wolverhampton’s compact style makes them one of the most difficult teams to score against yet the Cityzens scored three times in their building at Molineaux. Now Man City turns home where they scored 57 times last season in 19 contests for a 3.0 goals-per-game scoring average. The underlying metrics support their offensive prowess at home as their expected goals (xG) were 2.67 xG per game at home at the Etihad Stadium. Over their last ten games at home, Man City has scored 26 goals. They are dealing with injuries. Both forwards, Gabriel Jesus, and Sergio Aguero are dealing with injuries. When both these forwards are out, manager Pep Guardiola usually places Raheem Sterling in the attacker role where he is comfortable playing (this is his role with the English national team). But what has me sold on the Over is that Guardiola plans to deploy midfielder Kevin DeBruyne higher up the pitch in an attacking position. DeBruyne is an assists-machine who also can score goals with his powerful kicks — it is just that he also helps the defense out when controlling the middle of the field. Phil Foden should also be in the Starting XI given these injuries — and he is a strong offensive player. But playing KDB higher up the pitch further exposes a vulnerable Man City defense. They allowed 37 Big Chances last season with teams being able to effectively counter their aggressive pressing tactics. The Cityzens are also missing some key defensive pieces in defensive midfielder Ilkay Gundogan and defenseman Aymeric LaPorte. Man City made some nice transfers in the offseason to help fortify their defense — but it may be too early to see those players join the pitch. This team is not likely to enjoy a clean sheet. Leicester City has already scored seven goals so far this season in their first two matches. Led by Jamie Vardy and his 23 goals last year, the Foxes had an impressive 1.89 expected goals mark in their nineteen matches on the road in the EPL.
FINAL TAKE: I have concerns about the Leicester City defense this season. They lost defender Ben Chilwell in the transfer market to Chelsea in the offseason. To compound matters, they will be without holding midfielder Wilfried Ndidi for a few months to injury. Ndidi is one of the best defensive midfielders in the world — and his absence last season directly related to the collapse of their hot start in the first half of the season. The Foxes should score on the counter-attack — but Man City should be good for 2-3 goals (at least) playing at home with DeBruyne tasked in an offensive role for this one. 25* EPL Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between Leicester City (200105) and Manchester City (200106). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-26-20 |
Nuggets v. Lakers UNDER 215 |
Top |
107-117 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 2 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (711) and the Los Angeles Lakers (712) in Game Five of the Western Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (63-22) took a 3-1 lead in this series on Thursday with their 114-108 victory over the Nuggets as a 6-point favorite. Denver (55-36) once again finds themselves on the brink of elimination down 3-1 in this series. This game will be played on a neutral court in Orlando.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The referees responded from the criticism from LeBron James about not getting enough whistles as the Lakers got to the charity stripe 35 times from which they converted on 28 of those attempts. Look for the fewer fouls to be called in tonight’s game. The Lakers have played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a win by 6 points or less. Denver made 50.6% of their shots in Game Four which was the third straight game where the Lakers allowed them to make at least 47.3% of their shots from the field. Los Angeles has then played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing their last three opponents to make at least 47% of their shots. The Lakers have scored at least 105 points in eight straight games — but that is a strong indicator that this game will finish below the number. LA has played 48 of their last 76 games Under the Total after scoring at least 105 points in three straight games — and they have played 38 of their last 60 games Under the Total after scoring at least 105 points in four straight games. And in their last 47 games after scoring at least 105 points in five straight games, they have then played 30 of these games Under the Total. And while these two teams have seen 220 and 222 combined points scored in the last two games, the Lakers have then played 22 of their last 35 games Under the Total after playing two straight games where at least 215 combined points were scored. Denver has seen the Under go 3-1-1 in their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and the Under is 7-2-2 in their last 11 games when playing with one day of rest. The Nuggets are certainly familiar with this situation of being on the brink of elimination. They must crave danger. The urgency of avoiding the abyss does motivate better efforts on the defensive end of the court for Denver. In Game Six and Seven of their series with Utah, the Nuggets held the Jazz to just 45.3% and 38.0% shooting which resulted in only 107 and 78 points in the final two games of that series. Then in Game Five, Six, and Seven in their series with the Clippers, Denver clamped down to hold Kawhi Leonard and company to 42%, 41%, and 37.8% shooting which translated into 105, 98, and 89 points. The Nuggets have played 5 of their last 7 playoff games Under the Total when facing elimination.
FINAL TAKE: These team trends are complemented by an empirical situational angle that has been 61% effective over the last five seasons. The Lakers have not covered the point spread in the last two games in this series — and in games involving two teams with a winning percentage in the 60 to 75% range, when one team has not covered the point spread in two straight games, these games have then finished Under the Total in 116 of these last 189 situations where these conditions applied. While Davis is one of the best defenders in the league, if he is not 100% (or does not play), that helps our Under play since he is so important to the Lakers offense — he is averaging 29 PPG in the postseason. 25* NBA Western Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (711) and the Los Angeles Lakers (712). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-26-20 |
Florida State +11.5 v. Miami-FL |
Top |
10-52 |
Loss |
-110 |
9 h 28 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Florida State Seminoles (395) plus the points versus the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (396). THE SITUATION: Florida State (0-1) takes the field again after suffering a 16-13 upset loss at Georgia Tech two weeks ago on September 12th as a 13-point favorite. Miami (2-0) is unbeaten so far this season after they defeated Louisville on the road by a 47-34 score as a 2.5-point favorite last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SEMINOLES PLUS THE POINTS: Things started well in the first game under first-year head coach Mike Norvell. Junior quarterback James Blackman led the offense to 10 points in their first two possessions — but then things went off the rails. Blackman turned the ball over twice on fumbles while throwing an interception and two others drives were stopped by failed 4th down conversions. The Seminoles generated 438 yards of offense but scored only three more points the rest of the way to suffer the upset despite outgaining the Yellow Jackets by +221 net yards. Florida State should respond with a strong effort tonight as they have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after suffering an upset loss to an ACC rival — and they have covered the point spread in 3 straight games after a loss by a touchdown or less against a conference foe. The Seminoles have also covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after a game where neither team scored more than 17 points. Florida State will be a bit healthier for this game with FAU transfer Meiko Dotson and Hamsar Nasirildeen bolstering their defensive backfield after missing the Georgia Tech game. The team will also be inspired to play for Norvell who is not making the trip to Miami given quarantine protocols after he tested positive for COVID-19. I do think think his absence will negatively impact the Seminoles. He was able to work with the team remotely to help establish game plans and purpose for this showdown. While Norvell always has called the offensive plays going back to his four-year tenure as the head coach at Memphis, offensive coordinator Kenny Dillingham who was his OC and quarterbacks coach for two seasons at Memphis will take on those responsibilities. Dillingham was the offensive coordinator for Auburn last season. Tight ends coach Chris Thomsen will handle the head coaching responsibilities with his head coaching experience at Abilene Christian from 2005 to 2011. Miami may be due for an emotional letdown after their big won on national television last week against the Cardinals. The Hurricanes have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a win over a conference rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. Miami has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. The Hurricanes defeated Louisville despite getting outgained by -31 net yards. Second-year head coach Manny Diaz has to be happy with his new-look offense behind transfer QB D’Eriq King as they generated 485 total yards last week — but Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. And while the Hurricanes also gained 495 yards against UAB in their opening game, they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after gaining at least 475 yards in two straight games. But the defense is an issue despite their 18 tackles-for-less that they have generated this season. Louisville torched them for 516 yards last week but it was the three takeaways and their +3 net turnover margin that made the winning difference in that game. Yet the Hurricanes have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not committing a turnover in their last game.
FINAL TAKE: Miami has not been a reliable favorite as of late as they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 24 games as a favorite — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 home games when laying 10.5 to 14 points. Florida State has lost the last three meetings between these two teams after getting upset last year in Tallahassee by a 27-10 score as a 3-point underdog. Look for a close game between these in-state rivals. 25* College Football Game of the Month with the Florida State Seminoles (395) plus the points versus the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (396). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-25-20 |
Heat v. Celtics -3 |
Top |
108-121 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 49 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (716) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (715) in Game Five of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Boston (57-30) hopes to stave off elimination tonight after getting upset in Game Four of this series to the Heat on Wednesday by a 112-109 score as a 3.5-point favorite. Miami now owns a 3-1 lead in this series. This game will be played on a neutral court in Orlando.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS MINUS THE POINTS: Complacency has been the hobgoblin for this Boston team in this series. The Celtics are too often letting up in their intensity and focus. After falling behind by a 2-0 margin, they got Gordon Hayward back in Game Three who helped them with that game by a comfortable 117-106 score. And while many pundits commented on how Hayward was a series-changer with him being the right piece to counter the Miami zone defense, I worried about Boston’s determination after avoiding a disastrous 0-3 start to the series. And the Celtics came out flat on Wednesday. Jayson Tatum scored zero points while failing to get to the free-throw line even once in the first twenty-four minutes of the game. Boston went into the locker room at halftime trailing by a 50-44 score — this was their first deficit at halftime since the opening round of these playoffs. If head coach Brad Stevens is going to accomplish just one thing tonight, it will be to get his team to come out with more fire. The Celtics are still outscoring Miami by +19 points in the 1st quarter of this series. Boston has also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games away from home after an upset loss. Additionally, the Celtics are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games after a point spread setback. And while Game Four finished above the 212 point Total, Boston has then covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games away from after a game that finished Over the Total. The Celtics are outshooting and outrebounding the Heat in this series while also shooting better from behind the arc. The reason why both these teams have each scored exactly 441 points in this series is that Boston is turning the ball over which is giving Miami additional scoring chances. The Celtics are averaging 16.0 turnovers per game while coughing the ball up in 16.4% of their possessions in this series. The Heat are averaging only 11.3 turnovers per game which is helping them take 6 more shots per game than Boston. That’s the series. Only Cleveland had a worse turnover percentage during the regular season. Stevens should be able to impart the importance of Boston paying more attention to protecting the basketball. The Celtics turned the ball over in just 13.6% of their possessions in the regular season. And Boston is scoring at a healthy 114.6 points per possession rate in this series when not turning the ball over. Hayward’s ability to knock down 3s to break the Miami zone defense still exists — the Celtics were +4.9 points per possession better with Hayward on the floor during the regular season. Boston has lost and failed to cover the point spread in four of their last six games. But the Celtics have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games away from home after losing four or five of their last six games — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six contests. Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after an upset victory. And while the last two games have finished Over the Total, the Heat have then failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games away from home after playing two straight Overs. Miami received a stellar effort from Tyler Herro who scored 37 points on Wednesday — and while I have appreciated that the former Kentucky Wildcat is emerging as a star, he is unlikely to replicate that performance tonight. The Heat also have an issue with Bam Adebayo not being at 100% with a wrist injury. While it looks like he will play, it is unclear how productive he can be.
FINAL TAKE: Boston has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games away from home when avenging an upset loss. 25* NBA Friday ESPN Game of the Year with the Boston Celtics (716) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (715). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-24-20 |
Lakers -6 v. Nuggets |
Top |
114-108 |
Push |
0 |
4 h 26 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Lakers (709) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (710) in Game Four of the Western Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (62-22) lost their first game in their last seven playoff contests with their 114-106 upset loss to the Nuggets on Tuesday as a 5.5-point favorite. Denver (55-35) now trails in this series by a 2-1 margin. This game will be played on a neutral court in Orlando.
REASONS TO TAKE THE LAKERS MINUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles slacked with their effort on defense on Tuesday as they allowed the Nuggets to shoot 54.8% from the field which was the worst defensive effort in their last thirteen games. After allowing Denver to score 93 points after the first three quarters, the Lakers tightened things up to limit the Nuggets to just 21 points in the final twelve minutes. LA was also out-rebounded by a 45 to 25 margin while pulling down an embarrassingly sparse four offensive boards. Anthony Davis did not bother to notch his first offensive rebound until the 4th quarter. This team has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after being out-rebounded by at least ten boards in their last game. The Lakers’ effort was not as high as it has been in their six-game winning streak. But LeBron James and company should respond with a strong performance tonight as they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games after winning three of their last four games — and they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 31 games after winning four of their last five games. The offensive prowess of this team has been consistent as they have shot at least 50% from the field in nine of their last eleven playoff games. Nine of their last ten playoff wins this postseason have been by more than 6 points — so when the Lakers win, they are also covering point spread expectations. And then there is James. In his career, James has seen his team take a 2-0 lead in the playoffs twenty-three times. It has been just eight times when James’ team then lost Game Three up 2-0 in the series. Only once in Game Four did James and his teammates then respond with a straight-up victory to seize the commanding 3-1 series lead. Denver has covered the point spread in the last two games in this series — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after covering the point spread in two straight games. The Nuggets have also failed to cover the point spread in 37 of their last 61 games away from home after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 32 of their last 52 games away from home after a point spread win. Denver played one of their best games in the postseason Jamal Murray scoring 28 points with 12 rebounds and 12 assists while Nikola Jokic added 22 points along with 10 boards. And Jeramy Grant played perhaps his best playoff game ever with 26 points while outplaying a listless Anthony Davis. The Nuggets’ 54.8% shooting percentage was the mark in their last eleven games — and they have made at least 47.3% of their shots in six straight games. But Denver may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after making at least 47% of their shots in five straight games.
FINAL TAKE: The Lakers have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games when playing with revenge from an upset loss. 25* NBA Thursday TNT Game of the Year with the Los Angeles Lakers (709) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-24-20 |
Dolphins +3 v. Jaguars |
Top |
31-13 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Miami Dolphins (301) plus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (302). THE SITUATION: Miami (0-2) is winless in their first two games of the season after their 31-28 loss at home to Buffalo last Sunday as a 5.5-point underdog. Jacksonville (1-1) comes off a 33-30 loss at Tennessee as a 7-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DOLPHINS PLUS THE POINTS: There sure is a lot of love all of the sudden for this Jaguars’ team that was considered to be “tankin’ for Trevor” to get the opportunity to draft Trevor Lawrence as their franchise quarterback. But second-year QB Gardner Minshew is completing 75.4% of his passes with six touchdown passes and undrafted rookie running back James Robinson has emerged with 164 rushing yards to make their supporters understand why they released Leonard Fournette in training camp. Yet Jacksonville has still failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a loss on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss to an AFC South rival. And while Minshew threw for 339 yards against the Titans defense, the Jaguars have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after passing for at least 300 yards in their last game. Keep in mind that it was Minshew’s two interceptions on Sunday that helped the Titans overcome being outgained by a 480 to 354 yardage margin to the Jaguars. Jacksonville has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing at least 450 yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in a decisive 43 of their last 69 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least 100 yards. Minshew may be without one of his top targets in wide receiver D.J. Chark who is listed as questionable with a chest injury. They return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home game when favored. And not only have the Jaguars failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 30 points but they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 27 home games after surrendering at least 30 points. Miami has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss — and the have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread setback. The Dolphins have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss where they covered the point spread as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after losing two straight contests to AFC East rivals. In head coach Brian Flores I trust to get this team focused on a short week. Remember, this team was supposedly “tankin’ for Tua” last year before they rallied from an 0-7 start to the season by then winning five of their last nine games. Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick is inconsistent but it was the good version of him on Sunday as he completed 31 of 47 passes against an outstanding Bills defense for 328 passing yards with two touchdown passes and no interceptions. Getting wide receiver DeVante Parker healthy and back on the field is a big help for Fitzmagic — Parker has 78 catches for 1227 receiving yards with 10 touchdown passes in his last sixteen games. The Dolphins generated 410 yards of offense last week — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Miami has also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game.
FINAL TAKE: There is inherent value with the underdog in this one — and the Dolphins have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games as the dog. Miami has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and Jacksonville has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month is on the Miami Dolphins (301) plus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-22-20 |
Lakers v. Nuggets UNDER 214 |
Top |
106-114 |
Loss |
-105 |
5 h 58 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Lakers (707) and the Denver Nuggets (708) in Game Three of the Western Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (62-21) has now won six games in a row in dramatic fashion with Anthony Davis nailing a buzzer-beating 3-pointers to seal a 105-103 victory over the Nuggets on Sunday as a 5.5-point favorite. Denver (54-35) is now down 2-0 to the Lakers in this series. This game is being played on a neutral court in Orlando.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: An encouraging aspect that the Nuggets can take from Game Two of this series was their improved play on defense in the final 24 minutes of that game. Denver limited the Lakers to just 45 points in the second half while limiting them to scoring at just a 0.95 Points-Per-Possession rate. Los Angeles missed 15 of their 21 shots from behind that arc in the second half. The Nuggets have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a loss by 6 points or less. Additionally, the Under is 3-0-1 in Denver’s last 4 games after a straight-up loss — and the Under is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games after a point spread setback. And while that game finished just below the closing total of 209, the Nuggets have played a decisive 55 of their last 93 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Under the Total. Denver has covered the point spread in four of their last five games — and they have played 26 of their last 41 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in at least three of their last four games. Los Angeles has played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a win by 6 points or less — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a narrow win by no more than 3 points. The Lakers have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a victory where they did cover the point spread as the favorite. Furthermore, Los Angeles has played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after winning at least six games in a row. The Lakers have scored at least 105 points in each of their six victories in a row — but they have played 23 of their last 36 games Under the Total after scoring at least 105 points in three straight games. Additionally, LA has played 38 of their last 58 games Under the Total after scoring at least 105 points in four straight games — and they have played 30 of their last 45 games Under the Total after scoring at least 105 points in five straight games. This Lakers’ team remains relatively rested after taking care of Houston in five games in the Western Conference Semifinals — and they have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total when not playing more than three games in the last ten days.
FINAL TAKE: The Nuggets have lost all four meetings between these two teams in 2020 — and they have played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing with triple revenge. 25* NBA Tuesday TNT Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Lakers (707) and the Denver Nuggets (708). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-21-20 |
Saints v. Raiders UNDER 49 |
Top |
24-34 |
Loss |
-105 |
4 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (289) and the Las Vegas Raiders (290). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (1-0) enters this game coming off a 34-23 win at home to Tampa Bay last Sunday as a 4-point favorite. Las Vegas (1-0) comes off a 34-30 win at Carolina where they were 3-point favorites.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The final score for the Saints was a bit deceiving with one of their touchdowns being score from a 36-yard interception. New Orleans had a +3 net turnover margin — but they managed to generate only 271 yards of offense. The Saints averaged just 4.1 Yards-Per-Play against the Buccaneers which was the 2nd lowest average of all teams in Week One. Quarterback Drew Brees completed just 18 of his 30 passes for only 160 yards. His adjusted completion percentage was just 24th best in the league last week after missing a handful of open receivers. Maybe it was just one bad week without the benefit of preseason — or maybe Father Time is beginning to catch up with the 41-year old. Brees will not have the benefit of his favorite target in Michael Thomas who is out with an ankle injury. The Saints did add wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders in the offseason — and I expect them to use running back Alvin Kamara as a slot receiver in passing downs — but this is an offensive not at full strength without their best weapon in the passing attack. Thomas caught a whopping 149 catches last year for 1725 receiving yards and nine touchdowns. As it is, New Orleans has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a win over an NFC South rival. Additionally, the Saints have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after playing a game that went Over the Total. Furthermore, New Orleans has played 5 of their last 8 road games Over the Total as a favorite of no more than 7 points — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total with the total set at 45.5 or higher. And in their last 5 second games to a new season, the Saints have played 4 of these games Under the Total. The Under is 10-4-1 in Las Vegas’ last 15 games after a straight-up win. The Raiders have also played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last contest — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a game where at least 60 combined goals were scored. Las Vegas did not score more than 24 points in each of their final games last season — and they averaged just 15 PPG over that stretch. QB Derek Carr lacked a credible deep threat all season — that was supposed to be the role Antonio Brown would have assumed. The team drafted Alabama speedster Henry Ruggs with their 1st round pick to address this need — and he was targeted five times with three catches for 55 yards in the first half. Ruggs is listed as questionable to play but he will take the field tonight — however, it is unclear how effective he will be as he nurses the knee injury that kept home out of the second half last week. Las Vegas will rely on running back Josh Jacobs for this game — but the Saints have not allowed a 100-yard rusher in forty-four straight games. The Raiders did allow 260 passing yards last week — but the Under is 12-5-1 in their last 18 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game.
FINAL TAKE: Las Vegas had played their last four appearances representing Oakland Under the Total when playing on Monday Night Football. Gruden’s teams have played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total when playing in the first two weeks of the season including playing four of five Unders as the coach of the Raiders. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (289) and the Las Vegas Raiders (290). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-20-20 |
Patriots +4.5 v. Seahawks |
Top |
30-35 |
Loss |
-108 |
1 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (287) plus the points versus the Seattle Seahawks (288). THE SITUATION: New England (1-0) won their opening game of the season last week with their 21-11 win over Miami as a 7-point favorite. Seattle (1-0) also won their debut to the 2020 season with their 38-25 victory over Atlanta where they closed as a 2.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS PLUS THE POINTS: New England should build off their momentum from last week as they are 37-18-1 ATS in their last 56 games after a point spread win. The new-look Cam Newton run offense was clicking on all cylinders last week as they generated 357 total yards of offense on the strength of 202 rushing yards on 42 rushing attempts. The analytics folks tend to dismiss time of possession — perhaps that is one of the reasons they tend to replicate coin flips when making ATS prognostications? I assign plenty of value to the Patriots’ controlling the clock for 34:49 minutes last week. Not only does that keep the opposing offense off the field, but it keeps your own defense relatively fresh with one or two fewer defensive possessions they have to play in the game. That makes a big deal when coaching-up younger players. It is telling that New England is 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game — and they are also an impressive 42-20-2 ATS in their last 64 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. Cam Newton looked like a young man fully-healthy again with the mental reset of playing in a new environment. Don’t underestimate how much injuries have slowed him down since his Super Bowl run with Carolina a few years ago. Newton was an efficient 15 of 19 for 155 yards while averaging 8.2 Yards-Per-Pass-Attempt last week. He also ran the ball 15 times for 75 yards with two touchdowns. When he is healthy, he is simply money in short-yardage situations. And don’t sleep on the New England defense despite losing a handful of players who opted-out this season. The Patriots’ secondary remains elite led by cornerback Stephon Gilmour. The front-seven is a work-in-progress which is why controlling possession is so important. New England limited the Dolphins to just 169 yards of offense last week while averaging a mere 4.6 Yards-Per-Play — and they forced three turnovers. Since the start of 2019, the Patriots lead the NFL in these defensive categories still: allowing 13.9 PPG; allowing only 275.5 total YPG; 28 interceptions; opponent Passer Rating of 61.7. New England has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games as an underdog. It is not often that Belichick-coached teams are underdogs — and New England is 34-15-3 ATS in their last 52 games when getting the points. Seattle defeated the (now 0-2) Falcons last week despite being outgained by -123 net yards in that game. The Seahawks surrendered a troubling 506 yards to Atlanta in that game. Seattle has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a double-digit win. The defense improved significantly with the acquisition of Jamal Adams — but this team remains suspect with both their offensive and defensive lines. The Seahawks are just 3-7-1 ATS in the last 11 games in September.
FINAL TAKE: Seattle has the reputation for having a strong home-field advantage — but they will be without their “twelfth man advantage” with no fans in the crowd raising the decibel levels. As it is, the Seahawks have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games at home. 25* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month with the New England Patriots (287) plus the points versus the Seattle Seahawks (288). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-20-20 |
Twins v. Cubs -146 |
Top |
4-0 |
Loss |
-146 |
1 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 7:08 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the Chicago Cubs (972) with the money-line versus the Minnesota Twins (971) listing both starting pitchers Yu Darvish and Jose Berrios. THE SITUATION: Chicago (31-21) saw their five-game winning streak snapped yesterday with their 8-1 loss to the Twins in Game Two of this series. Minnesota (32-22) had lost four of their last five games before yesterday’s victory.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CUBS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Chicago has rebounded to win 6 of their last 8 games after a loss — and they have won 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Cubs have still won 5 of their last 7 games at home as the favorite — and they have won 19 of their last 26 home games with the Total set at 7 to 8.5. Chicago has also won 24 of their last 33 games at Wrigley Field against American League teams. They give the ball to Darvish who is 7-2 with a 1.86 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP in ten starts. Darvish has not allowed more than three earned runs in all ten starts this season. The right-hander has been very tough at home where he owns a 0.88 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .193 in eight starts as compared to his 1.15 WHIP and .250 opponent’s batting average on the road. Chicago has won 6 of their last 8 home games with Darvish pitching as a favorite priced at -110 or higher — and they have won 6 of their last 7 games with Darvish pitching at night. He faces a slumping Twins team that is scoring only 3.7 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a batting average of .211 along with a .290 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .721. Minnesota has lost 8 of their last 11 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Twins have also lost 10 of their last 14 games on the road — and they have lost 7 of their last 10 road games with the Total set in the 7 to 8.5 range. Additionally, Minnesota has lost 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record — and they have lost 5 of their last 7 games as an underdog. They counter with Berrios who is 4-3 with a 4.15 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP in ten starts. The right-hander does his best pitching at home where he owns a 2.67 ERA with a 1.04 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .168 in five starts — but he has been saddled with a 5.76 ERA with a 1.72 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .311 opponent’s batting average on the road. The Twins have lost 8 straight road games with Berrios pitching as an underdog priced in the +125 to +175 price range.
FINAL TAKE: The Cubs have won 5 of their last 6 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher — and they have won 4 of their last 5 games against right-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Game of the Year with the money-line on the Chicago Cubs (972) with the money-line versus the Minnesota Twins (971) listing both starting pitchers Yu Darvish and Jose Berrios. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-20-20 |
Bills v. Dolphins +6 |
Top |
31-28 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Miami Dolphins (272) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (271). THE SITUATION: Miami (0-1) looks to bounce-back from a 21-11 loss at New England as a 7-point underdog last Sunday. Buffalo (1-0) comes off a 27-17 win at home against the New York Jets as a 6.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DOLPHINS PLUS THE POINTS: Miami struggled to generate offense against the tough Patriots defense — they managed only 169 yards of offense last week. Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick struggled with three interceptions last week. But Fitzmagic has a nice track record when facing the Bills. In his last four games against Buffalo, Fitzpatrick is averaging 297.3 passing YPG while completing 68.8% of his passes with four touchdown passes and just one interception while posting a Passer Rating of 100.1. Head coach Brian Flores usually gets every ounce of talent from his roster — and he should have his team play hard this afternoon. The Dolphins have rebounded to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a loss on the road. Miami has also been a dangerous underdog under Flores as they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games when getting the points — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games as the underdog. Additionally, the Dolphins should have a home edge with the Bills traveling to muggy South Beach. Miami has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home. Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 29 of their last 43 games after a win at home against an AFC East rival. The Bills have also failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 30 games after a double-digit win over a divisional foe. Buffalo has sky-high expectations this season with New England perhaps taking a step back in the post-Tom Brady era. But the Bills are loaded with injuries — especially at linebacker with starters Matt Milano and stud Tremaine Edmunds out for this game. That is not a good sign for a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 road games when favored by 3.5 to 7 points.
FINAL TAKE: Buffalo has won the last three meetings between these two teams after sweeping both games last year. The Bills won in South Beach in the most recent encounter on November 17th by a 37-20 score as a 7-point favorite. Flores probably had Buffalo as his number one work priority in the offseason — and in Flores I trust. 25* AFC East Game of the Month with the Miami Dolphins (272) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (271). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-17-20 |
Bengals v. Browns UNDER 44 |
Top |
30-35 |
Loss |
-105 |
5 h 48 m |
Show
|
|
09-15-20 |
Nuggets v. Clippers UNDER 208.5 |
Top |
104-89 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (729) and the Los Angeles Clippers (730) in Game Seven of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Denver (53-33) pulled off their second-straight upset victory on Sunday as they defeated the Clippers by a 111-98 score as a 9-point underdog to force this Game Seven. Los Angeles (56-20) has blown a lead of at least 15 points in the last two contests in this series. This game will be played on a neutral court in Orlando.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Apparently, it is the sense of imminent failure that motivates this Nuggets team to play harder on defense. Five of Denver’s seven victories this postseason have come in elimination games. They held the Clippers to just 41% shooting on Sunday in what was the best defensive effort in their last four games — this performance was highlighted by them getting a defensive stop in eleven straight possessions in the second half. The Nuggets also nailed 54.1% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in the last seven contests. Denver has seen the Under go 4-1-1 in their last 6 games are a double-digit win. The Under is also 3-0-1 in their last 4 games after a straight-up win — and the Under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games are a point spread victory. And in their last 15 playoff games with the series tied, the Nuggets have played 11 of these games Under the Total. Los Angeles played their worst defensive game in their last fourteen contests after allowing Denver can 54.1% of their shots. Head coach Doc Rivers will likely shorten his bench tonight which means less time for Montrezl Harrell and Lou Williams who are offensive spark plugs off the bench but who have liabilities on the defensive end of the court. The Clippers have only covered the point spread once in the last five games in this series — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after only covering the point spread at least three of their last four games. Los Angeles has also played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total away from home after not covering the point spread in their last two games.
FINAL TAKE: The Clippers have played 23 of their last 33 games away from home Under the Total after suffering an upset loss — and they have also played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after suffering an upset loss when favored by at least 7 points. 25* NBA Tuesday ESPN Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (729) and the Los Angeles Clippers (730). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-14-20 |
Titans v. Broncos OVER 40.5 |
Top |
16-14 |
Loss |
-114 |
10 h 57 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (481) and the Denver Broncos (482). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (0-0) takes the field again after a 9-7 campaign that ended by losing at Kansas City in the AFC Championship Game. Denver (0-0) comes off a 7-9 season last year.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Titans will have revenge on their mind after getting shutout in Denver back on October 13th by a 16-0 score. That was the final straw for head coach Mike Vrabel who benched starting quarterback Marcus Mariota in that game. Ryan Tannehill came on to complete 13 of 16 passes in relief with that effort being enough to earn him the starting job that he then ran away with for the rest of the season. Tennessee won nine of their last thirteen games while leading the team one win away from the Super Bowl. Tannehill completed 67.9% of his passes while throwing 27 touchdown passes to just six interceptions. Tannehill opened up the vertical threats for this team as he completed 9.0 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game. But what defined success for Tannehill was his ability to operate in play-action. Tannehill sells the fake hand-off with the Titans using the play-action decoy to Derrick Henry (and the other running backs) 77.1% of the time with Tannehill under center. Tannehill generated a Passer Rating of 140.6 in the playoffs in play-action which was the best of all quarterbacks in the postseason. He will face a depleted Broncos’ pass rush that will be without Von Miller who went on IR with an ankle injury. Bradley Chubb will be on a pitch count as well with him dealing with an injured ACL. The lack of a pass rush will likely have Tannehill licking his chops. He completed 72.9% of his passes with a clean pocket with 21 touchdowns and just four interceptions while averaging 9.63 YPA — and his 122.6 Passer Rating from a clean pocket led the NFL last season. Tennessee should come out very motivated to avenge being shutout last year — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total in the opening week of a new season. This team averaged 24.1 PPG last season — and they also averaged 24.9 PPG on the road last season along with posting a 350.8 total YPG mark. The Titans have also played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total against AFC opponents. Furthermore, Tennessee has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total as a favorite — and they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Over the Total when laying the points. Denver has played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total in September — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total in the opening week of a new season. The Broncos are excited about the potential of their offense this season in the second season of quarterback Drew Lock. The former Missouri Tiger won four of his five starts to end the season last year. The organization hired Pat Shurmer to be the offensive coordinator after he became available when he was let go as the New York Giants’ head coach. The team also surrounded Lock with more weapons by signing running back Melvin Gordon from the Chargers and drafting Jerry Jeudy and K.J. Hamler. The Broncos need to improve their 18.8 PPG scoring average at home last season. Denver held their guests to just 17.9 PPG but that is a number that looks destined for regression given the attrition that the unit has endured. Not only is Miller out but they also lost defensive back Chris Harris, Jr. to a middling unit in production as they were just 14th against the pass and 15th against the run. Frankly, their defensive scoring average was somewhat the product of a defensive head coach in Vic Fangio who ran the ball to burn time off the clock to shorten the game and rest his defense. If and when the Broncos fall behind in this game, then Denver will have to abandon the run game.
FINAL TAKE: Tennessee has played 4 straight games Over the Total on Monday Night Football. Expect Tannehill to have a good game which will force the Broncos to lean on Lock to win this game — and that is a recipe for an Over with the Total set in the low-40s. 25* AFC Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (481) and the Denver Broncos (482). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-14-20 |
Chelsea v. Brighton & Hove Albion OVER 2.5 |
Top |
3-1 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 33 m |
Show
|
At 3:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Chelsea (200037) and Brighton and Hove Albion (200038). THE SITUATION: Chelsea (0-0-0) returns to the pitch after tying to 3rd place in the English Premier League last month with Manchester United. Brighton (0-0-0) staved off relegation in Project Restart this summer with 41 points which were seven points clear but still finished only 15th in the EPL table.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Chelsea made a dynamic splash into the transfer market after the EPL season finally concluded. They had already signed defensive midfielder Hakim Ziyech in the winter period and they fortified their leaky defense with a nice signing of Thiago Silva from Paris-Saint Germain but he is not likely to start yet for this team today. But the signings that drew more attention were the blockbuster deals that brought over Timo Werner and Kai Havertz from the German Bundesliga. These two young offensive dynamos combined to score 52 goals in the Bundesliga last season. Werner will play the attacker position where he thrived for RB Leipzig. Werner has been on my radar since starring for the German national team in the 2017 Confederations Cup — he is the heir apparent to Robert Lewandowski who was the top scorer for Bayern Munich’s Champions League victories club last month. Werner will be a Golden Boot contender this season. But it is Havertz who may still be the more exciting player. At 6’2, he is a matchup nightmare who played in the midfield for Bayer Leverkusen but can also take on the attacker role. These two join a group that was already a high-scoring team in the EPL. The Blues scored 69 goals last year but their expected goals were +9.3 higher at 78.3 xG. Adding two technicians to the mix like Werner and Havertz will help get the actual goals closer to the expected goals mark. Christian Pulisic is dealing with a knock and not likely to play — but Chelsea has an abundance of riches in offensive talent even without him or Willian who they let go sign with Arsenal. The Blues will miss holding midfielder Mateo Kovacic for this contest which will hurt their defensive presence. Defense is an issue — while they scored ten goals in their five road games after the restart, they conceded fourteen goals in those matches. Brighton should score in this one. They only scored 39 goals last year but their xG was +8.42 goals higher at a 47.24 xG clip. They averaged 1.40 xG per match. But they also had an expected goals allowed mark of 60.42 which was +6.42 goals more than the 54 they allowed last year.
FINAL TAKE: The Seagulls allowed 12 goals in their five home matches after the return to action in July. The offensive talent for Chelsea is outstanding — and Werner has already established chemistry with Havertz playing for German national teams over the years. I do worry about the team chemistry for the Blues when it comes to stopping their opponents. The Chelsea issues on defense will likely continue — and their hotshot goalkeeper they just signed will not be on the pitch yet for this one. 25* English Premier League Monday Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between Chelsea (200037) and Brighton and Hove Albion (200038). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-13-20 |
Cowboys v. Rams UNDER 52 |
Top |
17-20 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 28 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (477) and the Los Angeles Rams (478). THE SITUATION: Dallas (0-0) begins the new era of head coach Mike McCarthy tonight as he replaces Jason Garrett after his ten-year tenure ended with the Cowboys’ 8-8 finish last season. Los Angeles (0-0) looks to get back to the playoffs after missing the postseason last year despite their 9-7 record.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: McCarthy kept Kellen Moore as the offensive coordinator while deferring to him to continue to call plays for quarterback Dak Prescott. But the stout offensive line that Prescott has enjoyed over the years is not as strong. Five-time Pro Bowl center Travis Frederick returned in the offseason while their elite right tackle, La’El Collins, is beginning the year on the IR with a hip injury. The depth of the Cowboys will now be tested with Joe Looney taking over at center after playing in just five snaps last season while the poorly graded Cameron Erving becomes their best option at right tackle. Red zone offense was a problem for the Dallas offense when they were playing on the road last season. They averaged 388.4 total YPG away from home but that only translated into 22.1 PPG. The Cowboys’ offense may also struggle without the benefit of the preseason to implement the new principles that McCarthy wants to bring to the offense. As it is, Dallas has played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total in September. Additionally, the Cowboys have played 17 of their last 25 games Under the Total as an underdog (which they now are after the line movement earlier in the day) — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games on the road Under the Total when the underdog. Dallas does have a new defensive coordinator in Mike Nolan — and I think the veteran has a lot to offer the Cowboys. Dallas only allowed 20.4 PPG on the road last year along with just 322.6 total YPG. The Cowboys have also played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. Los Angeles has played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total with the number set at 49.5 or higher. The Rams have also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total when favored — and this includes them playing four of their last five games Under the Total when favored at home. The LA defense improved significantly midseason after the acquisition of cornerback Jalen Ramsey from Jacksonville. For the season, the Rams allowed only 339.6 total YPG. I have heard some pundits comment about how tough head coach Sean McVay is early in the season after the benefit of the offseason to devise new plays and offensive strategies. Yet Los Angeles has played 31 of their last 51 games Under the Total in the opening two weeks of the season including playing three of their last four opening two games Under the Total in the last two seasons. The Rams have also played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total in the first half of the season. LA will have the benefit of surprise on defense with new defensive coordinator Joe Staley calling the defense — and Dallas does not have the benefit of even vanilla game-tape from exhibition games to get a sense of what changes he will implement.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams last played on December 15th where the Cowboys pulled a 44-21 upset win as a 1-point underdog with the final score flying over the 48 point total. Dallas ran the ball 36 times for 248 yards and three touchdowns — but their two highest-graded offensive linemen from that game were Fredericks and Collins who will not be on the field tonight. The Cowboys will likely stick with their commitment to the run with Ezekiel Elliott but expect this rematch to be a much lower-scoring game. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (477) and the Los Angeles Rams (478). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-03-20 |
Nuggets v. Clippers -9.5 |
Top |
97-120 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Clippers (736) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (735). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (53-25) returns to the court tonight after defeating Dallas in six games with their 111-97 win over the Mavericks as a 9-point favorite on August 30th. Denver (50-30) outlasted Utah in their seven-game series that culminated with their 80-78 victory as a 2.5-point favorite on Tuesday. This game will be played on a neutral court in Orlando.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CLIPPERS MINUS THE POINTS: Look for the Nuggets to suffer an emotional letdown after rallying from a 3-1 deficit to defeat the Jazz. Don’t be surprised if this team looks tired tonight. Denver played their hardest game on defense in the bubble on Tuesday — they held Utah to just 38.0% shooting. But the Nuggets have failed to cover the point spread in 28 of their last 47 games after a straight-up win. Denver has also failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after winning at least two games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after winning at least three games in a row. Furthermore, while the Nuggets have covered the point spread in three of their last four games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games away from home after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. Los Angeles will be rested and ready for this game — and they are 22-8-1 ATS in their last 31 games when playing with at least three days of rest including covering the point spread in nine of these last twelve situations. The Clippers have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games when playing no more than their fifth game in the last fourteen days. And while Los Angeles has covered the point spread in three of their last four games, they have then covered the point spread in 26 of their last 38 games away from home after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. And in their last 6 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%, the Clippers have covered the point spread 5 times.
FINAL TAKE: Head coach Doc Rivers has indicated that Patrick Beverley will likely take the court tonight after missing time with his calf injury. He gives the team a big boost on defense. It will probably take a game for the Nuggets to adjust to the new challenge of facing this Clippers team. 25* NBA 2nd Round Western Conference Playoff Game of the Year with the Los Angeles Clippers (736) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (735). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-03-20 |
Flyers v. Islanders -125 |
Top |
5-4 |
Loss |
-125 |
1 h 36 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the money-line on the New York Islanders (26) versus the Philadelphia Flyers (25) in Game Six of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: New York (45-25-12) saw their two-game winning streak snapped on Tuesday with their 4-3 loss in overtime. Philadelphia (50-26-7) still trails by a 3-2 margin in this series. This game will be played on neutral ice at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ISLANDERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: New York should rebound tonight to win this series. The Islanders have still won 9 of their last 13 playoff games when leading in the series. This team displayed grit by rallying from a 3-1 deficit with under five minutes to go in the third period to force overtime. They won the expected goals battle by a 3.11 to 2.93 xG score — and they generated six more high danger scoring chances than the Flyers. New York has scored at least three goals in six straight games — and they have then won 12 of their last 18 games after scoring at least three goals in three straight games. This is a team that enjoyed a seventeen-game winning streak during the regular season before injuries slowed them down. The loss of top-line defenseman Adam Pelech obviously hurt before the injury to fourth-line center Casey Cizakas who played an important defensive role for the team. Getting both those players back helps — and the Islanders made some significant moves at the trade deadline by filling their hole at center by adding Jean-Gabriel Pageau from Ottawa and Andy Greene from New Jersey to add depth on defense. Pageau scored the game-tying goal yesterday and has fortified this team by anchoring the third-line. Trotz rolls four lines and his team’s dedication to their aggressive forechecking style of play makes them consistent from game-to-game. Philadelphia still has a big hill to climb to win this series — and they have lost 4 of their last 5 games after a win. The Flyers have also lost 8 of their last 12 games when playing on the road for their third game in five days.
FINAL TAKE: Injuries loom large for this game. The Islanders’ center Mat Barzal is listed as questionable after taking a hit in Game Five — but he is trending up to play tonight. The bigger issue is the injury that Philly’s Sean Couturier suffered on Tuesday — he may not be able to return tonight. That would be a huge loss as he is the team’s best player and one of the best two-way centers in the game. New York has won 15 of their last 24 games when avenging a same-season loss so expect a strong performance from them. 25* NHL 2nd Round Metropolitan Division Game of the Month with the money-line on the New York Islanders (26) versus the Philadelphia Flyers (25). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-02-20 |
Thunder v. Rockets UNDER 217 |
Top |
102-104 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 50 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Oklahoma City Thunder (731) and the Houston Rockets (732) in Game Seven of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Oklahoma City (47-31) forced a climactic seventh game in this series on Monday with their 104-100 upset win over the Rockets as a 4.5-point underdog. Houston (47-31) ha lost three of their last four games in this series. This game will be played on a neutral court in Orlando.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Rockets blew their opportunity to close out this series on Monday despite making 45.2% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last five contests. Houston has played 17 of their last 24 games Under the Total after an upset loss. The Rockets have also played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Furthermore, Houston has played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total when playing with one day of rest. The pressure of the playoffs tends to play a role in making all the 3s this team launches not fall quite as much. Every statistical moment is not the same — pressure plays a role in these games despite the protestations from the analytics community. It was their last Game Seven against Golden State back in the spring of 2018 where the Rockets missed twenty-seven straight 3-point shots. Houston has played 17 of their last 23 playoff games Under the Total when tied in the series including six straight Unders. They also have played 18 of their last 23 playoff games Under the Total with the opportunity to close out the series. Additionally, the Rockets have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 20 of their last 32 games Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. Oklahoma City has seen the Under go a decisive 48-21-1 in their last 70 games as an underdog. Additionally, the Thunder have played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after an upset victory — and they have played 28 of their last 45 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. This team has also played 18 of their last 26 games Under the Total after winning three of their last four games. Finding consistent scoring options for head coach Billy Donovan has been an issue outside of Chris Paul who scored 15 of his 28 points on Monday in the 4th quarter. Donovan is still starting Lu Dort alongside Steven Adams despite their liabilities on offense. When they are on the floor in this series the Thunder are scoring at just a 66.7 points per 100 possession rate — the Rockets are comfortable playing off both of them to pack the paint. But they are giving Donovan defense as Houston is scoring at just an 89.3 points per 100 possession rate when those two are on the court. I don’t see Donovan moving away from starting this combo tonight.
FINAL TAKE: The Rockets have played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total away from home when looking to avenge an upset loss. 25* NBA 1st Round Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Oklahoma City Thunder (731) and the Houston Rockets (732). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-02-20 |
Avalanche v. Stars +104 |
Top |
4-1 |
Loss |
-100 |
1 h 50 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Dallas Stars (20) versus the Colorado Avalanche (19) in Game Six of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Dallas (45-30-8) looks to bounce back from their 6-3 loss to the Avalanche on Monday. Colorado (50-24-9) has won two of the last three games in this series but still trail by a 3-2 margin. This game will be played on neutral ice in Edmonton.
REASONS TO TAKE THE STARS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Dallas was caught flat and very sloppy on defense at the beginning of this game as they allowed the Avalanche to race out to a 5-0 lead in the opening period. Look for the Stars to respond with a strong effort tonight. Dallas has won 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by at least three goals. The Stars have also won 19 of their last 26 games after allowing at least five goals in their last game. Dallas is a team that was always much better than their frontline numbers from the regular season suggests. The Stars were only ahead of Detroit with a 1.96 goals-per-game average at even strength during the regular season despite their expected goals mark at five-on-five being at 2.42 expected goals per game at even strength. Regression was bound to finally take hold for this team to start seeing more of their shots get into the back of the net. Head coach Rick Bowness has also had the defense play more aggressively in their opponent’s territory since the restart — and the blue-liners have responded with nine goals along with 27 assists. Over their last six games, the Stars have scored 29 goals. This remains a team that has won the expected goal (xG) battle in eight of their last eleven games with this Avalanche team. I am not sure who will be the goaltender for Dallas tonight after Ben Bishop was the surprise starter for them in Game Five. Bishop allowed four goals on nineteen shots on Monday but his defense deserves much of that blame. I suspect Bishop gets the call tonight as he is one of the best in the business when on his game. Perhaps he was rusty on Monday — but he had a 2.50 Goals-Against-Average along with a .920 save percentage in the regular season so he is likely an upgrade of Anton Khudobin who has played fine in his absence. Colorado may be vulnerable to exhaling just a bit in this game after staving off elimination with their convincing win on Monday. The Avalanche have lost 16 of their last 25 games after scoring at last six goals in their last game. Colorado has scored at least four goals in three straight games — but they have allowed the Stars to score at least three goals in all five games in this series. The Avalanche have lost 16 of their last 24 games after playing at least two straight games where at least three goals were scored — and they have lost 7 of their last 9 games after playing at least three straight games where both teams scored at least three goals were scored. Additionally, Colorado has lost 14 of their last 19 games after playing at least three straight games where at least seven combined goals were scored — and they have lost 4 of their last 5 games after playing at least three straight games where at least eight combined goals were scored. The Aves have goaltending problems of their own — but it is much worse after they had to rely on Michael Hutchinson on Monday. He played as good as could be expected after stopping 31 of 34 shots — but there is a reason that they picked him up the scrap heap earlier this season after Toronto cut him outright. Hutchinson had -6.91 saves below expectation before Monday’s game. He may have to play again tonight with Phillipp Grubauer out and backup Johan Francouz — who had been struggling — deemed unfit to play in Game Five.
FINAL TAKE: Dallas has won 7 of their last 9 games away from home when looking to avenge a loss by more than one goal. 25* NHL 2nd Round Playoff Game of the Month with the money-line on the Dallas Stars (20) versus the Colorado Avalanche (19). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-23-20 |
Bayern Munich v. Paris Saint-Germain OVER 3.5 |
Top |
1-0 |
Loss |
-104 |
1 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Bayern Munich (224301) and Paris Saint-Germain (224302) in the Finals of the UEFA Champions League. THE SITUATION: Bayern Munich reached the Finals of the Champions League on Wednesday with their 3-0 victory over Lyon. Paris Saint-Germain got to the Finals of the European Championship the day before with their 2-1 victory over RB Leipzig. This match is being played on a neutral field in Lisbon, Portugal.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Bayern Munich has now won twenty straight matches across all competitions with their victory over a surging Lyon team out of Ligue 1. Lyon had just come off a 3-1 upset victory over Manchester City on Sunday. They are a defensive-oriented club so scoring three goals against them was impressive. The Bavarians have scored 42 goals in their ten Champions League games which is top-flight competition for their European tournament which only the top teams in Europe qualify to compete in. Bayern Munich has averaged a robust 3.51 expected goals per game in their ten Champions League matches so they are not getting lucky with their high scoring totals. The Bavarians high-line has them play very aggressively which can overwhelm their opposition. That is what happened to Barcelona in the Quarterfinals of this tournament who Bayern Munich blitzed with eight goals in their 8-2 victory last weekend. But that does make the Bavarians vulnerable in the back themselves. Lyon had scoring chances on Wednesday — they generated 1.74 expected goals despite failing to put the ball in the back of the net. Paris Saint-Germain will likely take advantage of these scoring opportunities. They averaged 2.41 expected goals per game in their Champions League contests. They were trailing 1-0 late in their Quarterfinals match against Atalanta — but getting Kylian Mbappe back on the pitch who did not start because of an injury made all the difference for Les Parisians as he jumpstarted the PSG attack with the necessary two late goals to steal that game. Mbappe was back in full force than last Saturday in helping to lead PSG to their easy 3-0 victory over a strong defensive side in RB Leipzig. And all this commentary about PSG has yet to mention Neymar who has the opportunity in this match to make the case that he is the best player in the world. Neymar may be “due” to score a goal after generating 1.68 expected goals in the Quarterfinals and Semifinals without getting the ball in the back of the net.
FINAL TAKE: These are two teams with dynamic offensive attacks. Sometimes these championship games tend to be lower-scoring affairs with both teams playing cautiously — but that is a style that neither team is most comfortable playing. Expect a higher-scoring match. 25* UEFA Champions League Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Bayern Munich (224301) and Paris Saint-Germain (224302). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-14-20 |
Bayern Munich -0.5 v. Barcelona FC |
Top |
8-2 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Bayern Munich (224229) minus the goal-line versus Barcelona (224230) in the Quarterfinals of the UEFA Champions League. THE SITUATION: Bayern Munich reached the Quarterfinals of the Champions League knockout stage last Friday with their 4-1 victory over Chelsea which clinched their dominant 7-1 aggregate score over the Blues. Barcelona joined them in the Quarterfinals last Friday with their 3-1 win over Napoli which led them to a 4-2 aggregate score. This match will be played on a neutral field at Estadio Jose Alvalade in Lisbon, Portugal.
REASONS TO TAKE BAYERN MUNICH MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Despite the final score, Barcelona was not impressive in their victory over Lyon. They managed only 1.06 expected goals (xG) with their non-penalty kicks xG dropping to just a 0.31 mark. They managed only six non-penalty shots in the game with zero Big Chances representing a scoring opportunity with at least a success rate of 35% or better. Frankly, I kept the jury out for this Barca team waiting to see what lineup manager Quique Setien would deploy with the La Liga season completed. The Blaugranas could put out a very intriguing XI if Setien were to go young and lean on rising stars like Riqui Puig and Ansu Fati to play alongside Lionel Messi who is still fantastic. Instead, Setien stayed committed to his aging veterans who have lost a step or two (or three). Puig did not even play last week! Setien’s lineup, tactics, and even his demeanor were puzzling last week — he may be resigned to his impending resignation after taking over for Ernesto Valverde in January. This roster needs an overhaul — and it starts with their defense with a lack of quality central defenders. Gerard Pique is far too slow at this point in his career. Barcelona had a troubling 1.41 expected goals allowed (xGA) mark entering last week’s match. This team has become much too dependent on Messi who accounts for 34% of the team’s xG. Bayern Munich is a machine right now with eighteen straight victories across all competitions along with being unbeaten in their last twenty-seven games with twenty-six victories. Against the elite Champions League competition, they generated 3.27 xG while holding these opponents to just 0.72 xG.
FINAL TAKE: Bayern Munich is one of five teams in the top-five European professional leagues to generated a +1.0xG per 90 minutes or better ratio. The four other teams to pull that feat were Manchester City, Paris Saint-Germain, RB Leipzig, and Atalanta with all four of those teams in the Champions League Quarterfinals. Barcelona had just a +0.80 xG per 90 minutes this season for comparisons' sake. The Blaugranas have beaten Bayern Munich only twice in their last ten matches against them with six losses including a 7-0 drubbing in 2013 after Barca endured a similar turbulent season where they were clearly on the decline. Sounds familiar. 25* UEFA Champions League Quarterfinals *A-List* Special with Bayern Munich (224229) minus the goal-line versus Barcelona (224230). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-13-20 |
Atletico Madrid -0.25 v. Lokomotive Leipzig |
Top |
1-2 |
Loss |
-112 |
3 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Atletico Madrid (224221) minus the goal-line versus RB Leipzig (224222) in the Quarterfinals of the UEFA Champions League. THE SITUATION: Atletico Madrid reached the Quarterfinals of the Champions League knockout stage when they defeated Liverpool on the road by a 3-2 score on March 11th in the second leg of their Round of 16 showdown. RB Leipzig advanced to the Quarterfinals of this event the day before on March 10th when they defeated Tottenham by a 3-0 score. This match will be played on a neutral field at Estadio Jose Alvalade in Lisbon, Portugal.
REASONS TO TAKE ATLETICO MADRID MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Handicapping the German Bundesliga closely this summer convinced me that RB Leipzig is a bit of a paper tiger. The Red Bulls load up against the bottom teams in the league — but they only registered one victory against the top four teams in the standings consisting go Bayern Munich, Borussia Dortmund, Bayer Leverkusen, and Borussia Monchengladbach. While manager Julian Nagelsmann has his team play tight defense, RB Leipzig can struggle to score goals. They have scored only two goals in their last three contests — and they have managed just eight goals in their last six contests across all competitions. They scored just once in their last match in a friendly against Wolfsburg that ended in a 1-1 draw. To compound matters, they will be playing this match without their best offensive talent in Timo Werner as he signed a big contract with Chelsea and decided to begin training with his new team. The Red Bulls will miss his 32 goals across all competitions this year. Rust may be a factor as well with the Bundesliga concluding on June 27th — RB Leipzig has only had that one friendly two weeks ago since that time. The cohesion of the Red Bulls’ defense was already starting to wane towards the end of the season as they have not had a clean sheet in their last four contests. This team settled for too many draws during the league play. They only lost four matches in the Bundesliga which was the same as league champs Bayern Munich — but their 12 draws illuminated their inability to put away lesser teams in the league. The loss of Werner does not inspire confidence that this team will discover a clutch gene. Atletico Madrid proved their mettle by upsetting the reigning Champions League titleholders in Liverpool in the Round of 16. Los Colchoneros play dogged defense that stifles the will of their opponents. They held their La Liga opponents to just 0.97 expected goals (xG) — and their Champions League opponents this year managed just 1.11 xG. The victory over Liverpool jumpstarted the confidence of this team as they returned from the stoppage of play by going unbeaten in their eleven La Liga matches with seven victories while outscoring those opponents by a 20 to 6 margin. Atletico Madrid enters this match undefeated in their last eighteen matches. A tactical move also made this team much better over that span as manager Diego Simeone’s decision to move Marcos Llorente up top to serve as a second-striker ignited the offensive attack of the Red and Whites. This is a very confident team.
FINAL TAKE: RB Leipzig may be happy to be here at this point in their campaign with it being the young organization’s first appearance in the Champions League Quarterfinals. Atletico Madrid has been in the Quarterfinals of this event in five of the last seven years while reaching the Semifinals in 2016 and 2017. Simeone is one of the best managers in the world — and he is eyeing his first Finals opportunity with this team. In what should be a defensive struggle, look for the Atletico Madrid counterattack to create too many scoring chances for RB Leipzig to keep up. 25* UEFA Champions League Quarterfinals Match of the Year with the Atletico Madrid (224221) minus the goal-line versus RB Leipzig (224222). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-12-20 |
Paris Saint-Germain v. Atalanta OVER 3 |
Top |
2-1 |
Push |
0 |
4 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Paris Saint-Germain (224217) and Atalanta (224218) in the Quarterfinals of the UEFA Champions League. THE SITUATION: Paris Saint-Germain reached the Quarterfinals of the Championship League back in March when they defeated Borussia Dortmund by a 2-0 score on March 11th to defeat them by an aggregate 3-2 score. Atalanta qualified for the Quarterfinals of this tournament the day before on March 10th when they defeated Valencia by a 4-3 score to win that Round of 16 contest by an aggregate 8-4 score. Given the pandemic, the two-leg knockout stage format where both teams host a match has been replaced with a single game elimination process played on a neutral field in Lisbon, Portugal. This match will take place at Estadio da Luz which is the home stadium for Benfica.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Paris Saint-Germain is an offensive juggernaut. Their 3.33 expected goals (xG) average is the highest mark of the top-five professional leagues in Europe. They are led by Neymar who has scored 12 goals in PSG’s last sixteen Knockout Stage matches. Les Parisiens are undermanned in this match with Angel Di Maria suspended for this contest while Kylian Mbappe and Marco Verrati dealing with injuries. Mbappe suffered his knock in the team’s last match which was a 1-0 victory in a friendly over Sochaux on August 5th. Rust is a factor for this team since they have played only two matches in five months after Ligue 1 canceled the remainder of their season in March when COVID-19 hit. This lack of cohesion may impact the qualify of their defense more than their offensive attack. In the Champions League this season, PSG generated 2.23 xG in those matches. However, they also saw their expected goals allowed (xGA) rise to 1.18 which was almost 33% higher than the 0.81 xGA they enjoyed in Ligue 1 play. PSG has scored at least one goal in thirty-two straight Champions League matches going back to the 2015-16 campaign. Atalanta finished in 3rd place in Serie A just 5 points behind Juventus who won the top-flight Italian professional league. La Dea did have the best season in Serie A according to the expected goals as they topped the league in expected points (xPTS). Atalanta’s strength lies in their offensive attack as the led Serie A by generating 2.31 xG per match. La Dea scored 98 goals in league play this season which was the third-highest mark in the top-five European professional leagues. But this team is vulnerable on defense — they have allowed the most goals in the Champions League of the eight teams still competing for the championship. Atalanta’s Champions League opponents this season has generated an alarming 2.01 xG. To compound matters, La Dea will be without their top keeper in Pierluigi Gollini due to injury which means they will be relying on Marco Sportello who made only five starts in league play this season. Atalanta will also be without their top scorer, Josip Illicic, who did not rejoin the team this summer — but manager Gian Piero Gasperini has plenty of offensive talent at his disposal. This team was W21-D3-L1 in their twenty-five road matches across all competitions this season where they scored at least two goals in eighteen of those matches.
FINAL TAKE: Styles make fights — and both of these teams prefer to play in a proactive and open style. These are two teams that rely on their offensive attacks. Expect plenty of goals. 25* UEFA Champions League Quarterfinals Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Paris Saint-Germain (224217) and Atalanta (224218). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-08-20 |
Chelsea v. Bayern Munich OVER 3.25 |
Top |
1-4 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Chelsea (224209) and Bayern Munich (224210) in the second-leg of their Round of 16 UEFA Champions League match. THE SITUATION: Bayern Munich won the first-leg of this duel at Stamford Bridge by a 3-0 score back on February 25th. Chelsea now has to travel to Allianz Arena in Munich needing to both upset the Bavarians while winning by at least three goals to win advance to the Quarterfinals next week.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: A theoretical 3-0 Chelsea victory would force penalty kicks with the aggregate score being 3-3 with both teams scoring three goals on the road (the first tiebreaker). But it is highly unlikely that the Blues will shutout this explosive Bayern Munich side. The Bavarians averaged 2.80 expected goals per game in Bundesliga and DFB-Pokal domestic contests this season which is the second-highest mark of any team playing in one of the top-five European Leagues (PSG leads in that metric). Bayern Munich has scored at least four goals in five of their last ten competitive matches (non-friendlies). Manager Hansi Flick has indicated that his top players will take part in this match despite the big lead from the first leg since he needs to build up their fitness for their likely Quarterfinals match next week. Defense has been a big concern for this Chelsea team all season — they had an expected goals allowed (xGA) mark of 1.23 xGA this season. The Blues are also missing some of their key defensive pieces for this contest as well. Not only did Chelsea blow a 1-0 lead against Arsenal last Sunday in their 2-1 loss to Arsenal in the English FA Cup Final but they also suffered a number of costly injuries. Defenseman Cesar Azpilicueta was injured in that match and will not be able to play this afternoon. N’bolo Kante did not play last week with an injury that may keep him out in this one. Even worse, defenseman Marco Alonso and defensive midfielder Jorginho are suspended for this game given yellow cards. Chelsea is also missing Christian Pulisic and Pedro who got injured last week but manager Frank Lampard still has the services of forward Olivier Giroud. With the goalie issues Lampard has with both Kepa Arrizabalaga and Willy Caballero both underperforming when compared to typical replacement level keepers. The Blues will need to play aggressively to have much of a chance.
FINAL TAKE: Both teams are likely to score in this contest with Chelsea only being blanked once in their last fifteen matches and Bayern Munich having played seventeen straight competitive matches where they scored at least one goal. The Bavarians have seen at least four combined goals in six of their last ten competitive matches as well. The Blues are not a team that will park the bus. Even when getting shutout in the first leg of this showdown, they generated 1.16 xG while allowing Bayern Munich to register 3.12 xG. Expect a higher-scoring match. 25* UEFA Champions League Round of 16 Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Chelsea (224209) and Bayern Munich (224210). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-07-20 |
Canucks v. Wild -113 |
Top |
5-4 |
Loss |
-113 |
2 h 47 m |
Show
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At 10:45 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Minnesota Wild (62) versus the Vancouver Canucks (61) in Game Four of their Western Conference Playoff Qualifying Round. THE SITUATION: Minnesota (36-29-7) looks to stave off elimination tonight after losing Game Three of this series yesterday by a 3-0 score. Vancouver (38-28-6) has won the last two games in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE MINNESOTA WITH THE MONEY-LINE: The Wild should respond with a strong effort tonight. They have won 4 straight games after a loss by at least three goals — and they have won 4 straight games after being shutout. Additionally, Minnesota has won 36 of their last 52 games after losing two straight games — and they have won 12 of their last 17 games away from home after losing two in a row. The Wild need to get their offense going after failing to score on their last thirteen Power Play chances over the last two games. Minnesota should be much better on the Power Play — they ranked 2nd in the NHL with their Power Play unit in the last twenty-five games of the regular season. And they are facing a Canucks’ team that was just 26th in the regular season in expected goals allowed on their Power Play kill unit. The Wild have won 5 straight games after failing to score more than two goals in their last game. And while Minnesota has allowed six goals in these last two games, Minnesota has won 27 of their last 41 games after allowing at least three goals in two straight games. Head coach Dean Evason may turn to veteran goaltender Devan Dubnyk to be between the pipes tonight. And this team may be without defenseman Ryan Suter who did not play in the last seven minutes yesterday after blocking a puck. But this is a veteran club with plenty of playoff experience — they had in eight straight postseasons before missing the playoffs last year. Look for leadership to come from 35-year old Zach Parise and 34-year old Eric Staal along with the 36-year old Mikko Koivu and 32-year old Mats Zuccarello who have tons of playoff experience. This is a team that has still won 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they have won 6 of their last 8 games as a favorite. Vancouver has some very nice young talent in 20-year old Elias Pettersson, 20-year old Quinn Hughes, and 23-year old Brock Boeser — but this trio is in their first playoff series so they have no experience in trying to close out a playoff series. This franchise has not been in the playoffs since 2016 back in the Sedin brothers era. And this is an organization that has lost 10 of their last 12 playoff games as an underdog. Additionally, the Canucks have lost 6 of their last 7 games after shutting out their opponent in their last game. Furthermore, Vancouver has lost 5 of their last 7 games when playing without rest — and they have lost 15 of their last 23 games when playing their straight game on the road in two days.
FINAL TAKE: The Canucks were dominant when playing at home during the regular season with a 22-9-4 record — but they were just 14-18-2 on the road. If there is a benefit from playing without rest, it is that Minnesota can quickly get the bad taste out of their mouth and completely change the tenor of this series with a climactic final game on Sunday. Look for the Wild’s veteran core to force one more game in this series. 25* NHL Playoff Qualifying Round Game of the Year with the money-line on the Minnesota Wild (62) versus the Vancouver Canucks (61). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-26-20 |
AFC Bournemouth v. Everton |
Top |
3-1 |
Loss |
-123 |
1 h 23 m |
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At 11:00 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Everton (200018) with the goal-line versus Bournemouth (200017). THE SITUATION: Everton (W13-D10-L14) looks to end their season on a high note after a 1-0 victory at Sheffield United on Monday. Bournemouth (W8-D7-L22) has lost nineteen of their last twenty-six matches after their 2-0 loss at home to Southampton last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE EVERTON WITH THE GOAL-LINE: Bournemouth is playing for the EPL lives in this match as they begin the day in 19th place in the table. They are three points behind both Aston Villa and Watford — so the Cherries need a victory while seeing one of those teams lose to then stave off relegation. The problem for manager Eddie Howe’s team is that they have been in this desperation situation since Project Restart yet they are just W1-D1-L6 in those contests while being outscored by a 17 to 8 margin. Bournemouth has lost nine of their last twelve matches where they have been outscored by a 26 to 12 margin — and they have lost twelve of their last seventeen contests. The Cherries have been even worse on the road where they have lost twelve of their last thirteen contests. A porous defense is the biggest problem for this team that plays aggressively but lacks a “Plan B”. They have surrendered 40 goals in their last twenty league matches. They have also given up 34 goals in their seventeen road matches in the EPL — and they have an expected goal allowed mark of 1.92 (xGA). To compound matters, Howe is dealing with a depleted defensive backline with Adam Smith and Nathan Ake dealing with injuries. Howe hopes both can play — Ake is their best defender but may not be able to recover from the groin injury that has kept him out the last two matches. The Cherries have lost fifteen of their twenty-five matches against non-Big Six sides this season — and they have lost nine of their twelve road games against non-Big Six teams while only scoring eight goals in those games and conceding 21 times. Everton played one of their best matches since the restart in spoiling Sheffield United’s Europa League ambitions with that victory on the road. The Toffees have conceded only seven goals in their eight matches since the restart. Motivation is a question with this team — but manager Carlo Ancelotti read this team the riot act a week ago after a bad 3-0 loss to Wolverhampton. Everton has not lost since. Not only does Ancelotti want to continue to see a consistent effort but he is building for next year where he expects this team to finish in the Top-Six. Ancelotti is a serious manager with three UEFA Champions League titles with Inter Milan and Real Madrid. Since he took over in December, the Toffees have lost only five times — and these were all to quality opponents in Man City, Chelsea, Arsenal, Tottenham, and the Wolves. Everton has the 7th best record in the league since Ancelotti took over. This team has also been tough to beat at home in Goodison Park where they have lost only once since September. The Toffees are unbeaten in their nine home matches under Ancelotti with five victories. And they are W7-D3-L2 in their twelve home matches against non-Big Six sides this season. Everton is also averaging a solid 1.62 expected goals (xG) at home this season.
FINAL TAKE: Everton will be playing with revenge on their minds after suffering a 3-1 loss at Bournemouth in the reverse fixture back on September 15th. The Toffees have won all of their four opportunities to host the Cherries in their history while scoring 12 goals in those contests. Bournemouth must win this match — and that means they will be playing very aggressively. Look for Everton to score in the counterattack against a vulnerable and depleted Cherries’ backline. Dominic Calvert-Lewin may even get into the scoring act as he has shown signs of life after a dismal display since the restart. 25* English Premier League Match of the Year with the Everton (200018) with the goal-line versus Bournemouth (200017). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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