12-06-18 |
Jaguars v. Titans -5 |
Top |
9-30 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Tennessee Titans (102) minus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (101). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (6-6) snapped their two-game losing streak on Sunday with their 26-22 win over the New York Jets as a 10.5-point favorite. Jacksonville (4-8) ended their seven-game losing streak with their 6-0 shutout victory over Indianapolis as a 4-point underdog last week.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TITANS MINUS THE POINTS: The Jaguars’ defense may have been inspired to make a statement with head coach Doug Marrone’s decision to end the Blake Bortles era last week with him being benched for Cody Kessler at quarterback. Jacksonville stepped up t shutout Andrew Luck and the Colts’ offense while holding them to just 265 yards of offense. But this remains a lost season for the Jaguars who need to win their final four games just to get to an 8-8 record. Sure, Jacksonville can also try to motivate themselves to play the role of the spoiler — but that seems unlikely for this group at this point particularly with them playing on a short week. The Jaguars have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games after an upset victory as a home underdog. Jacksonville is also 8-17-1 ATS in their last 26 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. The Jags held Indy to averaging just 3.90 Yards-Per-Play in that game — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than 4.0 YPP in their last game. The bigger problem for this team remains their offense now reliant on Kessler running the show. He passed for just 150 yards in that game leading an offense that generated a mere 211 yards. Jacksonville was out-gained by 54 net yards even in that victory. The Jaguars have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. While the Bortles narrative has received most of the attention this season, one of the biggest reasons why this team has underachieved this season has been that they have ravaged by injuries. Jacksonville has a whopping fifteen players on Injured Reserve at this point of the season including three of their opening day starters on the offensive line headlined by their All-Pro left guard Andrew Norwell. Now this team goes back on the road where they are just 1-5 this season while being outscored by -9.3 PPG while allowing their home hosts to score 27.0 PPG. The Jags are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games on the road. Furthermore, Jacksonville is 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games against fellow AFC South opponents — and they are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings with the Titans. Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in three straight games — but they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. The Titans held the Jets to just 124 passing yards last week — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in their last game. Tennessee stays at home on this short week where they are 4-1 this season — and they are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 games at home. Additionally, the Titans have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games against teams with a losing record on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games when favored by 7 points or less. The Tennessee defense is a top-nine unit in yards allowed while ranking 6th in the league by holding their opponents to only 20.4 PPG.
FINAL TAKE: I would put more credence into the potential role of the spoiler for the Jaguars if they had a whole week to prepare — instead, I suspect they rested on their laurels after stepping up last week against the Colts. Quarterback Marcus Mariota is playing better football as of late as he gets back to 100% health. Look for this tough Titans team to take care of business on their home field. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Year with the Tennessee Titans (102) minus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-06-18 |
Maryland v. Purdue -6.5 |
Top |
60-62 |
Loss |
-115 |
4 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Purdue Boilermakers (708) minus the points versus the Maryland Terrapins (707). THE SITUATION: Purdue (5-3) has lost two straight as well as three of their last four games after their 76-57 loss at Michigan last Saturday as a 6.5-point underdog. Maryland (7-1) enters this game coming off a 66-59 win over Penn State last Saturday as a 6.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BOILERMAKERS MINUS THE POINTS: Purdue has been the underdog in their last two games — so those were not bad losses. In fact, their three losses to Florida State, Virginia Tech and the Wolverines were all to teams that currently rank in Ken Pomeroy’s top sixteen teams in his advanced metrics rankings system. Led by a returning All-American in Carsen Edwards, this Boilermakers’ team remains a talented group of players that remain capable although not quite as good as the one that lost to Texas Tech in the Sweet 16 last season (after losing their star seven-footer Isaac Haas to injury in the NCAA Tournament). This year’s team remains an elite offensive team under head coach Matt Painter as they rank 8th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They gave covered the point spread in two of their last three games — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 home games after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. The Boilermakers have allowed 44 points in the first half in each of their last two games — but they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 40 first-half points in two straight games. Purdue’s last three games have all finished below the number — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after playing three straight Unders. The Boilermakers return home where they are a perfect 3-0 this season with an average winning margin of +26.7 PPG due to them scoring 86.0 PPG on 47.3% shooting from the field. Purdue has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 31 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games in the month of December. Maryland has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win under head coach Mark Turgeon — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up loss. The Terrapins missed the Big Dance last season with a disappointing 19-13 record — and they declined to play in a second-tier postseason tournament. Turgeon returned three starters from that team with the hopes being that a big freshman class of six players would jumpstart the program back into the NCAA Tournament. Maryland breezed through their first six games with Marshall being the biggest challenge before losing to Virginia in the ACC-Big Ten Challenge by 5 points at home before rebounding with that win over the Nittany Lions. Perhaps the biggest challenge for this team is to go on the road away from College Park for just the second time this season. After playing at Navy, this will be just the second collegiate game in a hostile environment for freshman Eric Ayala, Jalen Smith, Serrel Smith and Aaron Wiggins who all play critical roles with this team. That is not a good sign for a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 33 road games with the Total set in the 140-149.5 point range. A vulnerability for this team is that they are turning the ball over in 20.2% of their possessions that have mostly been on their home court — that is the 229th worst mark in the nation. This proclivity to turn the ball over will likely worsen on the road — and the Boilermakers are forcing turnovers in 20.6% of their opponent’s possessions. And while the Terrapins have made at least 48.9% of their shots in each of their last five games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after making at least 47% of their shots in three straight games.
FINAL TAKE: Purdue returns home where they need to pick up a win after a challenging schedule to start the season. Look for them to expose this Terrapins team whose record hides a sweetheart early schedule. 25* CBB Big Ten Game of the Month with the Purdue Boilermakers (708) minus the points versus the Maryland Terrapins (707). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-05-18 |
Hornets v. Wolves UNDER 221.5 |
Top |
104-121 |
Loss |
-105 |
2 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Charlotte Hornets (509) and the Minnesota Timberwolves (510). THE SITUATION: Charlotte (11-12) has lost two straight games with their 119-109 loss to New Orleans on Sunday as a 3-point favorite. Minnesota (12-12) has won five of their last six games with their 103-91 win over Houston on Monday as a 2.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: One of the results of the Jimmy Butler trade for the Timberwolves was an improvement of their play on the defensive end of the court. Adding Robert Covington and Dario Saric gives the team two players who are strong defenders. Over their last five games, Minnesota is holding their opponents to just 42.3% shooting which is significantly better than their 45.5% opponent’s field goal percentage for the season. Save for the Celtics scoring 117 points against them, the T-Wolves have held their other four opponents to no more than 95 points. Their victory over the Rockets on Monday fell well below the 223 point total — and they have played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Under the Total. Minnesota has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Furthermore, the Timberwolves have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after scoring at least 100 points in their last game. And in their last 8 games against fellow Eastern Conference opponents, Minnesota has played 6 of these games Under the Total. Charlotte has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against Western Conference opponents. The Hornets have suffered two straight upset losses at home as they enter this game — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after losing two straight games Under the Total after suffering two straight losses at home as the favorite. Additionally, Charlotte has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after playing a game where at least 225 combined point were scored. They go back on the road where they are making only 42.8% of their shots which is a bit lower than their 46% field goal percentage for the season. The Hornets have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 7 of their last 9 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home.
FINAL TAKE: The team trends strongly indicate that both teams tend to play lower than expected scoring games in situations like this. 25* NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Charlotte Hornets (509) and the Minnesota Timberwolves (510). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-05-18 |
Ohio State v. Illinois UNDER 144 |
Top |
77-67 |
Push |
0 |
2 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Ohio State Buckeyes (529) and the Illinois Fighting Illini (530). THE SITUATION: Ohio State (7-1) enters this game coming off their 79-59 win over Minnesota as an 8.5-point favorite on Sunday. Illinois (2-6) has lost their last two games with their 75-60 loss at Nebraska as a 13-point underdog at Nebraska.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Buckeyes have played 21 of their last 30 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 15 of their last 20 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory. Additionally, Ohio State has played 17 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. This team plays excellent defense for head coach Chris Holtmann as they rank 21st in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They also rank 10th in the country by holding their opponents to just a 42.2% effective field goal percentage — and opponents are shooting only 37.2% from the field against them overall. This game is being played on a neutral court in the Chicago Bulls’ United Center. The Buckeyes are scoring only 66.5 PPG with a 45.1% field goal percentage in their two games away from Columbus so far this season. Those numbers are far below their 78.4 PPG and 48.3 % shooting marks for the season. Ohio State has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court. Illinois has seen the Under go 20-8-1 in their last 29 games after a straight-up win. Brad Underwood’s team is launching plenty of shots — they have attempted 11 and 14 more shots than their opponents over their last two games. The Illini have then played 15 of their last 20 games Under the Total after shooting at least 10 more times than their opponent in two straight games. Illinois has played five of their games away from Champagne this season — and they are averaging only 70.8 PPG while making only 40.6% of their shots which is far below their 77.4 PPG scoring average for the season along with their 44.9% field goal percentage for the year. The Illini have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court — and they have played 8 straight games Under the Total as an underdog or pick ‘em on a neutral court. Illinois has also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 7 of their last 9 encounters Under the Total. With this game being played in an unfamiliar environment for both teams, expect another lower-scoring game. 25* CBB Big Ten Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Ohio State Buckeyes (529) and the Illinois Fighting Illini (530). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-05-18 |
Leicester v. Fulham UNDER 2.5 |
Top |
1-1 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 26 m |
Show
|
At 2:45 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between Leicester City (2507) and Fulham (2508). THE SITUATION: Leicester City (6-3-5) enters this match coming off a 2-0 win over Watford on Saturday. Fulham (2-2-10) looks to bounce-back from a 2-0 loss to Chelsea on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Leicester City has tightened things up on defense as of late. Over their last five English Premier League matches, they have allowed only two goals. This focus on defense has come at the expense of limiting their scoring chances. The Foxes have scored only five goals in those last five matches. Against Watford, they relied on their counter-attack as they controlled possession for just 37.7% of that match. They were out-shot by an 8 to 7 mark. Leicester City will be without their top goal-scorer in Jamie Vardy who is out with a groin injury. That is not a good sign for their goal-scoring prospects when considering that they average only 1.43 Goals-Per-Game on the road. But the Foxes do play tight defense away from home as they are giving up just 1.57 Goals-Per-Game on the road. The Expected Goals advanced metric suggests that Leicester City should be seeing fewer goals scored in their matches. They have accumulated 20 goals this season with the xG being at 18.48. They have allowed 17 goals but the xGA is slightly lower at 16.26. Fulham has played two matches since former Leicester City manager Claudio Ranieri took over of Slavisa Jovanovic. Ranieri’s primary responsibility right now is to tighten up a defense that has allowed the most goals in the EPL. Allowing only four goals in his first two matches (including a potent Chelsea side) is a good start for this team. The Cottagers have been a bit unlucky with bad luck as their xGA is 29.03 which is far below the 35 goals they have allowed. Fulham has scored 14 times this season — but the xG is a tad lower at 13.35. The Cottagers have managed only nine goals in their six matches at home this season.
FINAL TAKE: Ranieri certainly is familiar with many of the current Foxes having led them to the EPL title in 2015-16. Fulham is playing a bit more controlled under his leadership. Expect a lower scoring contest. 25* EPL Midweek Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between Leicester City (2507) and Fulham (2508). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-04-18 |
Magic v. Heat UNDER 207 |
Top |
105-90 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 7:35 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Orlando Magic (703) and the Miami Heat (704). THE SITUATION: Orlando (11-12) snapped their two-game losing streak on Friday with their 99-85 win at Phoenix as a 4-point favorite. Miami (9-13) has won two straight games after their 102-100 upset at Utah as a 4-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Heat’s win was their second straight upset victory after they stunned New Orleans as a 3-point underdog on Friday. Miami has then played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after pulling off an upset win as a home underdog. The Heat have also played 9 straight games Under the Total after pulling off two straight upset victories. Furthermore, Miami has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing at least 100 points in their last game. This is a team riddled with injuries right now. Dion Waiters and Goran Dragic are both out indefinitely and Rodney McGruder is questionable with the ankle injury he suffered in that game with the Jazz. The Heat pulled off that upset win despite making only 39.6% of their shots — and this team is still without their best offensive pieces. They stay at home where they are shooting only 43.1% from the field. Miami has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing at home. Orlando has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing with at least three days of rest. They go back on the road where they have played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. The Magic have also played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Orlando has covered the point spread in four straight games — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in four straight games. And in their last 5 games against fellow Eastern Conference opponents, the game finished Under the Total 4 times.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams played on opening night this season with the Magic pulling the 104-101 upset with that final score finishing just below the 207.5 point total. Expect another Under tonight. 25* NBA Southeast Division Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Orlando Magic (703) and the Miami Heat (704). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-03-18 |
Redskins v. Eagles UNDER 45.5 |
Top |
13-28 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Redskins (379) and the Philadelphia Eagles (380). THE SITUATION: Washington (6-5) has lost two straight games after their 31-23 win at Dallas back on Thanksgiving as a 7-point underdog. Philadelphia (5-6) snapped their two-game losing streak on Sunday with their 25-22 win over the New York Giants as a 4.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Skins have been ravaged with injuries on the offensive side of the football. While the biggest lost player is quarterback Alex Smith, the attrition this team has suffered on their offensive line would devastate most teams. Washington has put four of their players that began the season on their two-deep depth chart on Injured Reserve with three of these players being starters — and their six-time Pro Bowl left tackle Trent Williams is questionable for tonight with rib and ankle injuries. The Skins are averaging 20.0 PPG for the season while scoring 19.1 PPG over their last three games and it is difficult seeing them putting up many more points than that. Adrian Peterson’s production has significantly declined as these injuries on the offensive line have mounted. Over the last month, the running back is averaging only 3.05 Yards-Per-Carry — and he has not reached 70 yards from scrimmage since October 28th. Washington rushed for just 80 yards against the Cowboys — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a game where they failed to rush for at least 90 yards. Furthermore, the Skins have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread setback. Quarterback Colt McCoy was a victim of this injured offensive line as well. He was sacked three times by Dallas while getting hitting eight times in that game. Washington has also been hit with injuries on defense but this unit is still playing well. For the season, the Skins rank 8th the NFL by allowing only 20.8 PPG led by a stout run defense that also ranks 8th in the league by allowing 100.3 rushing YPG. Over their last three games, Washington is allowing just 19.4 PPG — and they hold their home hosts to only 19.2 PPG. The Skins did allow 258 passing yards last week — but they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. Washington has also played 4 straight games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. Furthermore, the Skins have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road. Philadelphia has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Eagles defense gave up 276 passing yards along with 402 total yards of offense to the Giants — but they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. And while they allowed 7.31 Yards-Per-Play last week, they have then played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least 6.0 YPP. Philly is riddled with injuries in their secondary — but it helps that they are only facing McCoy rather than Smith at quarterback tonight. The Eagles are still playing strong run defense that ranks 10th in the league by allowing 103.6 rushing YPG. But this Philly offense is scoring only 17.3 PPG along with just 319.3 total YPG over their last three games. Philadelphia stays at home where they are holding only scoring 20.2 PPG — but they are also holding their visitors to that number. The Eagles have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total at home — and they have also played 9 of their last 11 home games Under the Total with the number in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Furthermore, Philly has played 7 straight home games Under the Total after losing two of their last three games — and they have played 8 straight home games Under the Total after playing an NFC East rival.
FINAL TAKE: Both of these teams have been hit very hard by the injury bug. Since the onus is on the offensive to execute plays to move the football, usually it is the defenses that look relatively better when injuries are spread out on both sides of the football. Expect a lower-scoring game between these two divisional rivals playing for the first time this season. 25* NFC East Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Washington Redskins (379) and the Philadelphia Eagles (380). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-02-18 |
Chargers v. Steelers UNDER 53 |
Top |
33-30 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (353) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (354). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (8-3) has won seven of their last eight games with their 45-10 win over Arizona last week as a 14-point favorite. Pittsburgh (7-3-1) looks to bounce-back from their 24-17 upset loss at Denver as a 3-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chargers are playing outstanding defense right now — and that unit is even better now that Joey Bosa has returned after missing most of the season due to injury. Los Angeles has allowed less than 20 points in six of their last seven games. Over their last three games, the Chargers are allowing just 13.0 PPG along with only 263.7 total YPG. This strong defensive play should continue tonight as the Under is 35-16-1 in the LA’s last 52 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Additionally, Los Angeles has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a win by at least two touchdowns. The Chargers did generate 414 yards of offense last week against the Cardinals — but they have then seen the Under go 10-3-1 in their last 14 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Los Angeles has also played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last contest. Unfortunately for this offense, they will be without their top running back, Melvin Gordon tonight who is out with a knee injury. Now the Chargers go back on the road where they are only averaging 368.0 total YPG which is 34 YPG below their season average. But the LA defense keeps them competitive away from home as they hold their opponents to just 18.5 PPG. The Chargers have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total on the road. Los Angeles has also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Pittsburgh has only scored 37 combined points over their last two games. They are getting outstanding play from their defense that not only leads the NFL in sacks but is allowing only 20.3 PPG along with just 264.3 total YPG over their last three games. The Steelers have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after winning two of there last three games. Pittsburgh did generate 527 yards of offense last week while averaging 7.12 Yards-Per-Play — but they have then played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after gaining at least 400 yards in their last game and they have also played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after averaging at least 6.0 YPP in their last game. Pittsburgh needs to get their rushing attack going again after only rushing for 75 yards in their last game — and they have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after failing to gain more than 75 rushing yards in their last contest. The Steelers have averaged 403.6 total YPG over their last three games — but they have then played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after averaging at least 400 YPG in their last three games. Lastly, Pittsburgh has played 11 of their last 18 games Under the Total in expected close games where they are listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against fellow AFC opponents.
FINAL TAKE: The high Total set in the low-50s suggests that this shapes up to be a scoring fest. However, both these teams are playing great defense — scoring is going to be harder to come by for both teams. 25* AFC Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (353) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (354). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-02-18 |
Colts v. Jaguars UNDER 46.5 |
Top |
0-6 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 27 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (351) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (352). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (6-5) has won five straight games with their 27-24 win over Miami last week as a 9-point favorite. Jacksonville (3-8) has lost seven straight games with their 24-21 win at Buffalo as a 3-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Jaguars have hit rock bottom — so head coach Doug Marrone fired offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett and benched quarterback Blake Bortles. But new offensive coordinator Scott Milanovich is still limited by the offensive talent available to him. Quarterback Cody Kessler has only played in thirteen NFL games in his career. And the team will be without running back Leonard Fournette who was suspended for one game for his roughhouse behavior in last week’s game with the Bills. Jacksonville is scoring only 17.9 PPG. But the maligned Jaguars’ defense has played much better at home where they are holding their opponents to just 16.2 PPG along with only 261.6 total YPG. Last week’s game with Buffalo went Over the 36.5 point Total — but Jacksonville has played 15 of their last 23 games Under the Total after playing a game that went Over. The Jaguars have also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after an upset loss. The Bills did rush for 167 yards last week — but the Jags have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in their last game. Furthermore, Jacksonville has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing at home. And in their last 7 games against fellow AFC South opponents, the Jaguars have played 5 of these games Under the Total. Indianapolis has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And while the Colts generated 455 yards of offense in that game, they have then played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Indy suffered a -2 net turnover margin in that game — but they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a game where they had a -2 or worse net turnover margin. The Colts defense has stepped up their level of play as of late as they have held their last three opponents to just 20.0 PPG along with only 330.7 total YPG. Andrew Luck has led an offense that has scored at least 27 points in six straight games — but they have then played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after scoring at least 25 points in five straight games. Moving forward, Indianapolis has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when favored in the 3.5 to 9.5 point range — and they have played 20 of their last 26 games Under the Total in the month of December. And in their last 12 games against fellow AFC South opponents, the Colts have played 9 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the Colts’ 29-26 win back on November 11th. While that game flew Over the 48 point Total, these two teams have still played 11 of their last 15 meetings Under the Total. Expect this rematch to be a lower-scoring game. 25* AFC South Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (351) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (352). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-01-18 |
Northwestern +16.5 v. Ohio State |
Top |
24-45 |
Loss |
-110 |
5 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Northwestern Wildcats (321) plus the points versus the Ohio State Buckeyes (322). THE SITUATION: Northwestern (8-4) has won three straight games with their 24-16 win over Illinois as a 16-point favorite last week. Ohio State (11-1) has won four straight games with their triumphant 62-39 upset win over Michigan as a 3.5-point underdog last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WILDCATS PLUS THE POINTS: No one doubts the talent level with this Buckeyes team — but this team has been underachieving all season. The issues regarding Urban Meyer were a distraction for this team early on — but it just seems like the culture of this team has gone in the wrong direction considering their 29-point loss at Purdue along with a narrow victory at Maryland that might have been decided when the Terrapins decided to go for the win rather than the tie with a 2-point conversion attempt in overtime. Ohio State has much more talent than either of those teams — and they will be facing a Wildcats team that is more talented than either of those two Big Ten rivals. The Buckeyes played their best game of the season — or in many seasons — last week against their arch rival. The last time Ohio State was a home underdog was in 2011 when they hosted Wisconsin — and they had not been an underdog to the Wolverines since 2004. This was a team clearly motivated to make a statement. But emotional letdowns are common after big wins like that — and this Buckeyes’ team is particularly susceptible to inconsistency. Not only has Ohio State failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win but they have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a win by at least 20 points. Furthermore, the Buckeyes have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after winning their last four games. No tricks were saved on offense last week against the top statistical unit in the country — and Ohio State ripped the Michigan defense for 567 total yards while averaging 8.46 Yards-Per-Play. But the Buckeyes have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 road games after averaging at least 7.25 YPP. Failure to play fundamental football has been the biggest weakness for this team this season — it is as if the players have stopped listening to the coaches. The Michigan game was probably an exception with all the players on notice — but this defense ranks 67th in the nation by allowing 398.8 total YPG despite being loaded with NFL talent. It is even worse when they play away from home as they are allowing 470.2 total YPG when playing on the road. Northwestern is battle-tested with a 3-point loss to Michigan and a 10-point loss to Notre Dame. The Wildcats play strong defense as they rank tied for 29th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 21.7 PPG — and that marks drop to a mere 17.0 PPG when this team is playing away from home where they are a perfect 5-0 this year. Under head coach Pat Fitzgerald, this team is 20-5-1 ATS in their last 26 games in conference play — and they are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. This team is the epitome of dangerous underdogs given their strong fundamental play. The Wildcats have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games as a dog with nine outright wins. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games as a double-digit underdog — and they have seven outright wins in those games. Northwestern has also covered the point spread in 7 straight games as an underdog against Big Ten opponents with six of those games being where they pulled the upset.
FINAL TAKE: Ohio State needs a statement victory to overcome Oklahoma to reach the final four in the playoff race (assuming that Georgia does not upset Alabama). When in a similar situation in 2014, the Buckeyes responded by destroying Wisconsin by a 59-0 score. We had Ohio State in that game — but I don’t think this group can flip the switch the way this program could under Meyer a long four years ago. These two teams last played in late of October of last season where another uber-talented Buckeyes team only won by a 24-20 score. In this classic letdown spot, I look for Ohio State to struggle against a sound opponent. 25* CFB Fox-TV Game of the Year with the Northwestern Wildcats (321) plus the points versus the Ohio State Buckeyes (322). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-01-18 |
Fresno State +3 v. Boise State |
Top |
19-16 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 7:45 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Fresno State Bulldogs (317) plus the points versus the Boise State Broncos (318). THE SITUATION: Fresno State (10-2) reached the Mountain West Conference Championship Game with their 31-13 win over San Jose State last Saturday as 32-point favorites. Boise State (10-2) matched them last week with their 33-24 win over Utah State as a 2.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS PLUS THE POINTS: Fresno State has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread setback. The Bulldogs generated 515 yards of offense against the Spartans last week — and they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 28 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. Led by quarterback Marcus McMaryion, Fresno State averages 282.8 passing YPG which is 23rd best in the nation. Pass defense is a vulnerability for the Broncos as they rank 79th in the nation by allowing 238.9 passing YPG. But where this Bulldogs team shines is on the defensive side of the football where they rank 2nd in the nation by allowing only 13.5 PPG — and they rank 17th in the nation by giving up 321.7 total YPG. Fresno State has been even stingier on the road as home teams are scoring just 12.0 PPG against them while averaging a mere 324.8 total YPG. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. Additionally, Fresno State is 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Additionally, Fresno State has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games against teams with a winning record. Boise State (10-2) has played two straight clean games when it comes to committing turnovers — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after not committing a turnover in their last game. The Aggies passed for 363 yards last week in that loss — and the Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 3 straight games after allowing at least 325 passing yards in their last game. Boise State has scored 78 combined points in their last two games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after scoring at least 31 points in two straight games. They get to host this game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games on their blue home field. Furthermore, not only have the Broncos failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games with the Total set in the 49.5 to 56 point range but they have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 home games with the Total set in that range.
FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of a 24-17 upset win that Boise State pulled off back on November 9th as a 2-point underdog. After losing at home to San Diego State in October, the Broncos survived two games at home against the Bulldogs and BYU that were settled by one scoring possession before scoring with four (darn) seconds left in the game last week to pull away from Utah State. Look for Boise State’s good fortunes at home in close games to finally run out tonight against an opponent with an elite defense that will be motivated with double-revenge from not only this year but also losing in Boise in last year’s Mountain West Conference Championship Game. 25* CFB Saturday Night Special Feature with the Fresno State Bulldogs (317) plus the points versus the Boise State Broncos (318). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-01-18 |
UAB +1.5 v. Middle Tennessee State |
Top |
27-25 |
Win
|
100 |
15 h 36 m |
Show
|
At 1:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the UAB Blazers (307) plus the points versus the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (308). THE SITUATION: These two teams meet again in Murfreesboro for the second straight week after Middle Tennessee (8-4) won last Saturday’s game by a 27-3 score in an upset where they were 3-point underdogs. UAB (9-3) travels back looking to avenge that loss and to win the Conference USA Championship Game.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BLAZERS PLUS THE POINTS: UAB had their spot in this championship game clinched before playing last week — but winning that game would have ensured that they hosted the conference championship game back in Birmingham. Perhaps head coach Bill Clark preferred to hold back some plays last week and ensure the opportunity to face these Blue Raiders again this week even if it meant playing on their home field? Either way, it looks pretty evident that Clark had the Blazers take their foot off the proverbial gas pedal after falling behind by a 13-3 score at halftime in that game. UAB managed only 89 yards of offense in that game. Clark is an outstanding coach who has pulled off a minor miracle to get this team to the conference championship game despite going on a two-year hiatus four years ago. Clark was rewarded on Friday with a big contract extension that makes him the highest paid football coach in Conference USA. He should have his team ready to play a great game. The Blazers have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after suffering an upset loss by at least 17 points despite being favored in that game. UAB is also 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games after a straight-up loss as well as being 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 games after a loss by at least 20 points — so this group has proven themselves to be very resilient under Clark’s leadership. Furthermore, the Blazers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when avenging a loss where they did not score more than 9 points — and they have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when avenging a loss by at least three touchdowns to their opponent. UAB has lost their last two games with both those contests being played on the road. But the Blazers have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after losing their last two contests on the road — and they have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after suffering two straight losses on the road by double-digits. UAB should get their offense going this week — they rank 30th in the nation by averaging 207.5 rushing YPG. They are 20-8-2 ATS in their last 30 games after failing to score at least 20 points in their last game — and they are 10-4-2 ATS in their last 16 games after failing to gain at least 275 yards in their last game. But where this team should really see improvements in this rematch is on the other side of the football where they rank 8th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 287.2 total YPG. UAB is also 9th in the FBS by allowing just 16.7 PPG — and they out-gain their home hosts when playing on the road by +46.7 net YPG. This stout defense has helped the Blazers cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. Middle Tennessee may not be able to prevent themselves from suffering from a bit of a letdown after winning easily last week to earn their opportunity to win the conference championship. As it is, the Blue Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win at home by at least 17 points — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after an upset win as an underdog. Middle Tennessee did not commit a turnover last week but that might not bode well for them now as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after playing a game where they did not commit a turnover. The Blue Raiders get the opportunity to host this game at their Floyd Stadium where they are 5-0 this season — but they are only out-gaining their visitors by +35.8 net YPG. Middle Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in the month of December. And in their last 9 expected close games where they are listed in the +/- 3-point range, the Blue Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of these contests.
FINAL TAKE: I suspect that Clark kept a few tricks up his sleeve with the expectation that this rematch would be occurring this week. He will have a very eager and motivated team looking to redeem themselves from the thumping they received last week. It will be difficult for the Blue Raiders to maintain the intensity and sense of urgency that they displayed last week. 25* CFB Game of the Year with the UAB Blazers (307) plus the points versus the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (308). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-01-18 |
UL-Lafayette v. Appalachian State UNDER 58 |
Top |
19-30 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the UL-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (313) and the Appalachian State Mountaineers (314). THE SITUATION: UL-Lafayette (7-5) reached the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game with their 31-28 upset win at UL-Monroe last Saturday as a 1.5-point underdog. Appalachian State (9-2) has won four games in a row with their 21-10 win over Troy last week as a 12-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Mountaineers have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a double-digit win over a conference rival. Appalachian State held the Trojans to just 223 yards of offense while winning the rushing battle by a decisive 139 net yards. The Mountaineers have played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total after out-rushing their last opponent by at least 125 yards. Appalachian State’s spread option offensive attack defines the program — but that aspect of their game should not distract from the outstanding defense that head coach Scott Satterfield has overseen in his sixth year with the program. Five starters returned to a defense that was tied for 21st in the nation by holding their opponents to just 20.2 PPG — and they also ranked 29th in total defense by allowing only 342.5 total YPG. This year’s unit has been even better as they rank 5th in the nation by allowing just 15.4 PPG — and they also rank 4th in the FBS by giving up only 278.2 total YPG. The Mountaineers are even stingier playing at home where they give up only 11.6 PPG along with just 271.4 total YPG — and over their last three games, this group is allowing a mere 11.3 PPG along with 259.7 total YPG. Appalachian State has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have also played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total with the number set in the 56.5 to 63 point range. UL-Lafayette raced out to a 24-21 halftime lead against the Warhawks last week before hanging out to win by a 31-28 score. The Ragin’ Cajuns have then played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a win by 3 points or less — and they have played 18 of their last 27 games Under the Total after scoring at least 24 points in the first-half of their last contest. UL-Lafayette has scored at least 31 points in three straight games — but they have then played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after scoring at least 31 points in three straight games. Furthermore, the Ragin Cajuns have seen the Under go 17-8-1 in their last 26 games in Sun Belt Conference play — and they have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total in the month of December. This championship game is a rematch of the October 20th meeting between these two teams that the Mountaineers won by a 27-17 score in their Kidd Brewer Stadium. The Ragin’ Cajuns did a pretty good job of slowing down the Appalachian State offense as they generated only 364 total yards which were over 118 yards below their season offensive average when playing at home. UL-Lafayette has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when looking to avenge a loss on the road to their opponent.
FINAL TAKE: The Ragin Cajuns should play even better on defense in this rematch with the benefit of their experience facing this offensive scheme in October. UL-Lafayette ranks 104th in the nation by allowing 443.3 total YPG but they have allowed over -45 YPG less than that over their last three games. These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total. 25* CFB Conference Championships Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the UL-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (313) and the Appalachian State Mountaineers (314). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-30-18 |
Nuggets v. Blazers -2 |
Top |
113-112 |
Loss |
-103 |
3 h 24 m |
Show
|
At 10:35 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Portland Trail Blazers (722) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (721). THE SITUATION: Portland (13-8) snapped their three-game losing streak on Wednesday with their 115-112 win over Orlando as a 10-point favorite. Denver (14-7) has won four straight games with their 117-85 win over the Lakers as a 3-point favorite on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TRAIL BLAZERS MINUS THE POINTS: Portland left a bad taste in many bettors mouths last season when they were routed by New Orleans in the playoffs. Yet the Trail Blazers returns seven of their top ten rotation players from the group that finished as the third seed in the Western Conference. Even more impressive, not only did 75% of the minutes that were played last year but Portland’s returning players accounted for 80% of their points, assists and shot attempts. This is a good team at home where they are 8-3 with an average winning margin of +8.2 PPG. The Trail Blazers have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 33 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. Furthermore, Portland has covered the point spread in 21 of their last 31 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have also covered the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games at home when listed on the +/- 3-point range. The Trail Blazers are also 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games against fellow Northwest Division opponents. Denver may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games on the road after a point spread win. The Nuggets have also failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 road games after a win at home. Denver has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 115 points in their last game. The Nuggets out-rebounded the Lakers by a whopping 65 to 45 margin but they are not likely to come close to that advantage against this Blazers team that out-rebounds their guests by +9.6 RPG when playing at home. Denver is 5-4 on the road but they are making only 44.5% of their shots — and they face a Portland team that holds the visitor to just a 43.5% field goal percentage. Lastly, while the Nuggets have covered the point spread in four straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after covering the point spread in four straight games.
FINAL TAKE: Look for Portland to pull away from the Nuggets with them having home court advantage. 25* NBA Friday ESPN Game of the Month with the Portland Trail Blazers (722) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (721). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-30-18 |
Utah v. Washington UNDER 45 |
Top |
3-10 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 43 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Utah Utes (305) and the Washington Huskies (306). THE SITUATION: Utah (9-3) has won three straight games with their 35-27 win over BYU last Saturday as a 10.5-point favorite. Washington (9-3) has also won three in a row after they upset Washington State on the road last Friday as a 2.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Huskies have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. Washington held the powerful Cougars offense to only 237 total yards in an outstanding defensive effort — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. The Huskies were one of my dark horse candidates to win the National Championship this season in large part because they returned nine starters from a stout group that was 5th in the nation by allowing only 16.1 PPG while ranking 8th in the FBS by holding their opponents to just 298.8 total YPG. This year’s defense ranks 8th in the FBS by allowing 16.5 PPG while also ranking 13th in the nation by limiting their opponents to 311.3 total YPG — so this group has only a slight decline in their outstanding numbers. What has held this Washington team back has been a disappointing offense that is scoring only 28.0 PPG (tied for 75th in the nation) after averaging 36.2 PPG last season with quarterback Jake Browning and running back Myles Gaskin as juniors. The offensive line has taken a step back this season with the unit suffering a big loss with the season-ending injury to senior left tackle Trey Adams who was projected as a potential top-ten pick in the NFL draft. The Huskies did generate 487 yards against the Cougars last week — but they have then played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. The formula for success for head coach Chris Petersen’s team is winning the war in the trenches. They have out-rushed their last three opponents by at least 100 yards — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after out-rushing their last three opponents by at least 100 yards. Washington has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 7 of their 10 games Under the Total as the favorite. Utah has played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a win at home — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total when playing on the road after a victory on their home field. Furthermore, the Utes have played 20 of their last 28 road games Under the Total after a game where at least 60 combined points were scored. Utah only gained 296 yards of offense against the Cougars but benefited from a 27-yard interception that they returned for a touchdown. The Utes have an elite defense that allows only 19.3 PPG (17th in the nation) — and they rank 15th in the FBS by only allowing 315.8 total YPG. Utah has the nation’s 5th best rushing defense that holds their opponents to only 100.3 rushing YPG — led by defensive line coach Gary Andersen who was a steal of a hire by head coach Kyle Whittingham after his stint at Oregon State soured last season. This is a rematch of the Huskies’ 21-7 victory over the Utes back on September 15th. Utah had junior Tyler Huntley under center for that game along with junior Zack Moss in their backfield — but both leaders on offense have since suffered season-ending injuries. For this rematch, the Utes will be using redshirt freshman Jason Shelley under center. While he has played well, he is likely a step back from Huntley who led an offense that only generated 261 yards with the one score. The defense did limit the Huskies to just 327 yards in that initial game — and I expect another gritty defensive performance. Utah has played 31 of their last 48 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points.
FINAL TAKE: Utah knows they cannot get into a high-scoring affair with the Huskies given the injuries they have suffered on offense. This Washington team only scores 22.2 PPG in their six games away from home — so this game shapes up to be a low-scoring contest. 25* CFB Pac-12 Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Utah Utes (305) and the Washington Huskies (306). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-30-18 |
Blues v. Avalanche UNDER 6 |
Top |
3-2 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the St. Louis Blues (9) and the Colorado Avalanche (10). THE SITUATION: St. Louis (8-12-3) has lost two straight games — as well as five of their last six contests — with their 4-3 loss in Detroit on Wednesday. Colorado (15-6-3) has won six straight games with their 6-3 win over Pittsburgh on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Blues have played three straight Overs where at least seven combined goals were scored. But St. Louis has played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total after playing at least three straight Overs — and they have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after playing at least three straight games where at least seven combined goals were scored. The Under is also 7-2-1 in their last 10 games when facing a team who scored at least five goals in their last game. The Blues stay on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Furthermore, St. Louis has played 12 of their last 16 road games Under the Total after losing at least two straight games. The team is rumored to be interested in trading for goaltender Jimmy Howard of the Red Wings with their goalie Jake Allen struggling. Allen has been a disaster at home where he has been saddled with a 3.86 Goals-Against-Average along with an .879 save percentage — but those numbers do drop to respectable a 2.74 GAA with a .911 save percentage at home. Allen has also recovered from a bad opening month to post a 2.65 GAA with a .915 save percentage for November. Additionally, St. Louis has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total against fellow Western Conference opponents. Colorado has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total against Central Division opponents. They have scored at least three goals in six straight games — but they have then played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after scoring at least three goals in two straight games. The Avalanche have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after scoring at least five goals in their last game. This is Colorado’s third game since Monday — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total when playing their third game in five days. They are getting goaltending from Semyon Varlamov who has a 2.15 GAA with a .928 save percentage when playing at home. The Under is 4-1-1 in the Avalanche’s last 6 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have seen the Under go 15-7-1 in their last 23 meetings. Expect another lower scoring game between these two teams. 25* NHL Central Division Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the St. Louis Blues (9) and the Colorado Avalanche (10). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-30-18 |
Northern Illinois +4 v. Buffalo |
Top |
30-29 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Northern Illinois Huskies (303) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bulls (304). Northern Illinois (7-5) limps into the Mid-American Conference Championship Game with their 28-21 upset loss at Western Michigan back on November 20th as a 6.5-point favorite. Buffalo (10-2) clinched their opportunity to win the conference championship with a 44-14 win at Bowling Green last Friday as a 16-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HUSKIES PLUS THE POINTS: Northern Illinois has suffered two straight upset losses in a row as their loss to the Broncos was preceded by a 13-7 upset loss at home to Miami (OH) as a 6.5-point favorite. But because the Huskies raced out to a 6-0 record in conference play, the team was in firm control of winning the MAC West Division despite then losing their last two games. There is no better way for Rod Carey’s team to erase the memory of these last two setbacks then by winning this game and winning their conference title. This team returned fourteen starters from last year’s group that finished 8-5. This is the team’s first trip back to Ford Field in Detroit to play in this game in the last three years. As usual, this is a battle-tested team that played Utah at home while also traveling to play Iowa, BYU and Florida State in their non-conference schedule. They should play very well tonight as they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after a loss by 7 points or less against a conference opponent. Northern Illinois did allow 285 passing yards to Western Michigan in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last game. The Huskies are led by their outstanding defense that ranks 26th in the nation by allowing only 344.0 total YPG. They rank 13th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 107.0 rushing YPG. Northern Illinois has only allowed 94 rushing yards in each of their last two games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 125 rushing yards in two straight games. The Huskies are due for some better luck when it comes to the bouncing ball that often determines turnovers as they have endured a -2 or worse net turnover margin in three straight games. But Northern Illinois has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after losing the turnover battle in three straight games. Moving forward, the Huskies have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 33 road games in the month of November. Buffalo raced out to a 34-7 halftime lead over Bowling Green last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after holding at least a 24-point halftime lead in their last game. The Bulls are led by one of the best offensive lines in the country that helped them churn out 332 rushing yards against the Falcons meager defensive line (as we predicted when taking Buffalo in that game) — but this team has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after rushing for at least 300 yards in their last game. The Bulls held the Bowling Green offense to only 58 rushing yards — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 road games after not allowing more than 100 rushing yards in their last contest. But run defense is an issue for this team as their opponents are averaging 169.5 rushing YPG this season which is 74th in the nation. On paper, the Northern Illinois offense looks weak as they rank 124th in the FBS by averaging only 318.0 total YPG — but that mark rises over 50 YPG to a 369.0 total YPG mark in conference play. This is Buffalo’s third straight game away from home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games when playing on a neutral field.
FINAL TAKE: Northern Illinois is in a better position to win this game given their experience in this game along with their brutal non-conference schedule and the extra days they have had to rest and prepare for this showdown. Their defense should frustrate a Bulls’ offense that ranks last in the MAC in Red Zone offense. This is the biggest football game for this Buffalo team perhaps in program history — they have not even played in a bowl game since 2013. 25* CFB Underdog of the Month with the Northern Illinois Huskies (303) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bulls (304). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-29-18 |
Clippers v. Kings +3 |
Top |
133-121 |
Loss |
-115 |
5 h 42 m |
Show
|
At 10:35 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Sacramento Kings (504) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Clippers (503). THE SITUATION: Sacramento (10-10) has lost their last two games with their 133-112 loss to Washington as a 3.5-point underdog. Los Angeles (14-6) has won three straight games as well as eight of their last nine contests with their 115-99 win over Phoenix last night.
REASONS TO TAKE THE KINGS PLUS THE POINTS: Sacramento should bounce-back with a strong effort as they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a double-digit loss — and they have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit loss at home. Additionally, the Kings have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after allowing at least 125 points in their last contest. Head coach Dave Joerger has an intriguing mix of young talent featuring three lottery draft picks in De’Aaron Fox, Willie Cauley-Stein and Buddy Field — and he has made this group dangerous by having them play at a blisteringly fast pace which was a style that did work when he was coaching the Grit-n-Grind Memphis Grizzlies in his previous spot. Sacramento has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games with the Total set at 220 or higher. Furthermore, the Kings have covered the point spread in 4 straight games in expected close games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games played on a Thursday night. They also have a big advantage over the Clippers with their extended rest for this game — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games when playing with at least three days rest. Los Angeles has one of the deepest benches in the league — but they will be challenged at the breakneck speed at which the Kings play when playing without rest from their win over the Magic last night. Some of their depth may be reduced tonight with Luc Mbah a Moute out and Marcin Gortat questionable with injuries. The Clippers have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a point spread win as a double-digit favorite. And while Doc Rivers team has covered the point spread in two straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after two straight point spread covers. Now this team goes on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a winning record at home — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 road games with the Total set at 220 or higher. Lastly, the Clippers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games played on a Thursday night.
FINAL TAKE: The Kings will be motivated to make a statement on national television against a Clippers team that has beaten them twelve times in a row. Don’t be surprised if this young Sacramento team uses this moment to earn an important win for the franchise. 25* NBA Thursday TNT Game of the Month with the Sacramento Kings (504) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Clippers (503). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-29-18 |
Saints v. Cowboys UNDER 53.5 |
Top |
10-13 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 53 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (301) and the Dallas Cowboys (302). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (10-1) has won ten straight games after their 31-17 win over Atlanta last Thursday as an 11.5-point favorite. Dallas (6-5) has won three games in a row with their 31-23 win over Washington at home last Thanksgiving as a 7-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: While the Saints offense that leads the NFL by scoring 37.2 PPG, the continued improved play of their defense too often gets the short shrift. New Orleans has allowed only 12.7 PPG over their last three games while limiting their last three opponents to just 282.0 total YPG. The Saints have not allowed more than 23 points in seven of their last eight games with the lone exception being their 45-35 shootout with the Rams. The New Orleans run defense leads the NFL by allowing only 73.2 YPG — and opposing rushers average just 3.6 Yards-Per-Carry. Nine of their last ten opponents have failed to rush for more than 100 yards — and their last three opponents have managed only 65 rushing YPG. The Saints pass rush has stepped as of late as well as they have combined for 13 sacks along with 25 hits on the quarterback over the last three weeks. This unit will be infused the return of their breakout rookie defensive lineman Marcus Davenport who has missed the last few weeks with a toe injury. New Orleans has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a double-digit win. The Saints have also played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. While New Orleans has scored at least 30 points in five straight games, they have then played 5 straight games Under the Total after scoring at least 25 points in their last five contests. As the weather begins to turn, the Saints are starting to emphasize their rushing attack a bit more with Mark Ingram back in the mix after serving his four-game suspension. Drew Brees only attempted 22 passes last week against the Falcons. New Orleans only generated 312 yards of offense last week against the Atlanta defense. The Saints tend to run the ball more when they go on the road as well — they have played 8 of their last 13 games on the road Under the Total with the number set at 49.5 or higher. Dallas has played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Cowboys have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a win at home — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after winning three of their last four games. The formula for defeating the Saints will certainly be to run the ball to burn time off the clock and keep Brees off the field — Dallas is 5-1 this season when Ezekiel Elliott rushes for at least 100 yards. Despite last week’s offensive effort against the Skins, the Cowboys have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Dallas has an outstanding defense that is 3rd in the NFL by allowing just 19.4 PPG while also ranking 7th in the league by giving up a mere 331.1 total YPG. The Cowboys run defense ranks 5th in the NFL by allowing just 93.6 YPG — and they are allowing only 3.46 YPC. They held Washington to just 80 rushing yards — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. Dallas has not allowed more than 28 points to an opponent all season. They have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total against fellow NFC opponents.
FINAL TAKE: Both of these are going to attempt to run the football — yet both might be stymied in these efforts when facing their opposing strong run defenses. While that will likely lead to a course of events that will see more passing, the lack of an effective ground game will slow down these offenses. With the Total in the low-50s given the prowess of the Saints offense, expect a lower scoring game. 25* NFL Thursday Night O/U Special Feature with Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (301) and the Dallas Cowboys (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-28-18 |
North Carolina v. Michigan -3 |
Top |
67-84 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Michigan Wolverines (762) minus the points versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (761). THE SITUATION: Michigan (6-0) remained undefeated this season with their 83-55 win over UT-Chattanooga last Friday as a 32.5-point favorite. North Carolina (6-1) comes off a 94-78 win over UCLA last Friday in the consolation match of the Las Vegas Invitational.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLVERINES MINUS THE POINTS: The Tar Heels are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring at least 90 points in their last game — and they will be hard-pressed to approach that number tonight. Michigan is the top-rated defensive basketball team in the nation in terms of Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They limited the defending national champions, Villanova, to just 46 points despite that game being played on the Wildcats’ home court. This is a talented Tar Heels team that returns three starters from last year’s team that lost in the Round of 32 in last year’s NCAA Tournament to Texas A&M. Head coach Roy Williams has plenty of talent — including his best-recruiting class in years — but he is still working out just how deep he wants his bench to go when facing elite competition. The Tar Heels lost by a 92-89 score to Texas in Las Vegas in a game where they turned the ball over 17 times which accounted for 21.2% of their possessions. Now they face Wolverines team that forces turnovers in 21.8% of their opponent’s possessions (63rd in the nation) despite rarely deploying full-court pressure. Michigan’s Xavier Simpson is a nightmare to play against as he played a critical role in their run to the NCAA Championship Game last season. North Carolina has a five-star blue-chipper at point guard in Coby White — but the freshman has yet to face a defender as fierce as Simpson. The Tar Heels have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games with the Total set in the 140 to 149.5 point range. And in their last 7 games as an underdog, North Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of these games. Michigan also leads the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of just 36.9%. Coincidentally, it was the Wolverines’ 86-71 loss to the Tar Heels last year that formed the basis of their dramatic improvement on defense. Assistant coach Luke Yaklich is credited as the architect for the defensive adjustments that really began to take shape after that embarrassing loss to North Carolina in last year’s ACC-Big Ten Challenge contest for both these teams. There are a number of subtle changes that occurred after that contest — but perhaps the most important became the eventual decision by head coach John Beilein to commit to Simpson as his starting point guard given how disruptive he was on the defensive end of the court. Michigan is 13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 games after a straight-up win — and they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a win by at least 20 points. The Wolverines have held their last two opponents to just 28.1% and 36.1% shooting from the field — and they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing their last two opponents to make at least 37% of their shots. Michigan is 3-0 at home this year with an average winning margin of +22.0 PPG as they hold their visitors to just 45.3 PPG on low 32.6% shooting. The Wolverines have covered the point spread in 6 straight home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. Michigan is also an impressive 16-5-2 ATS in their last 23 games gains teams with a winning percentage over 60%.
FINAL TAKE: Beilein’s acumen as an offensive coach has been forgotten a bit given the startling improvement on defense to the elite teams in college basketball. If the Wolverines are hitting their shots as they did against Villanova (or Texas A&M in the Sweet 16 last year), they will blow out their opponents. But now their defense will keep them competitive in all their games. They will be very motivated to avenge their loss to the Tar Heels last year who no longer have their All-American point guard in Joel Barry from last year’s team that stalled in March. 25* CBB ACC-Big Ten Challenge Game of the Year with the Michigan Wolverines (762) minus the points versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (761). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-28-18 |
Mavs v. Rockets -6 |
Top |
128-108 |
Loss |
-105 |
5 h 33 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Houston Rockets (710) minus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (709). THE SITUATION: Houston (9-10) returns home from a winless three-game road trip after a 135-131 loss in overtime at Washington on Monday as a 1.5-point underdog. Dallas (9-9) has won six of their last seven games with their 113-104 upset win over Boston as a 2.5-point underdog on Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ROCKETS MINUS THE POINTS: Houston is struggling through the first quarter of the season. Offseason roster moves where they did not resign two of their important complementary pieces last season in Trevor Ariza and Luc Mbah a Moute who made their 3-point shots while playing well on the defensive end of the court. They were exchanged for players like Carmelo Anthony who was simply not a good fit at this stage in his career. Anthony is now gone — and the team immediately started playing better with that decision. But a hamstring injury to Chris Paul left James Harden without much help on offense — and that vulnerability is most start when on the road. The Rockets have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after losing their last three games on the road. Returning home will help where the role players are more comfortable in making their shots to compliment Harden — Houston is shooting 48.7% from the field at home. The Rockets also need to play better on the defensive end of the court after allowing the Wizards to make 56.8% of their shots. That was the worst defensive effort of the season for Houston — but they should see improvement on that end of the court with the assistant coach Jeff Bzdelik back with the team after temporarily retiring in the offseason. Bzdelik was considered the defensive mastermind for this group last season. Houston three road losses were all to Eastern Conference opponents — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after playing their last three games against non-conference opponents. Hosting a Mavericks team that makes only 43.0% of their shots on the road should help. Dallas has scored at least 113 points in their last two games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after scoring at least 110 points in two straight games. Both of those games were at home — and the Mavericks have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after playing their last two games at home. Dallas has also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games when playing with at least three days of rest. The Mavericks go back on the road where they are just 1-7 this season with an average losing margin of -7.9 PPG. Dallas allows their home hosts to score 111.0 PPG with a 46.8% field goal percentage — and that is not a good sign when facing this high-scoring Rockets team. The Mavericks have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against the Rockets — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games played in Houston. Together, these team trends produce our specific 60-25 ATS combined angle for this situation.
FINAL TAKE: The Rockets may not have Paul return to the court just yet as he is listed as questionable still with his hamstring injury. But this Dallas team is banged up with their two first-round draft picks over the last two seasons in Luka Doncic and Dennis Smith are both questionable with Doncic dealing with an illness and Smith handling an injured wrist. Being without both players will be devastating for their chances tonight — but even if both can take the court tonight, they are facing an angry Rockets team that needs a win back at home. 25* NBA Southwest Division Game of the Month with the Houston Rockets (710) minus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (709). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-27-18 |
Golden Knights v. Blackhawks UNDER 5.5 |
Top |
8-3 |
Loss |
-105 |
1 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Vegas Golden Knights (65) and the Chicago Blackhawks (66). THE SITUATION: Vegas (12-12-0) has won three straight games with their 6-0 win over San Jose on Saturday. Chicago (9-10-4) looks to build off their 5-4 win in overtime at Florida on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Goalie Marc-Andre Fleury is heating up after a slow start in the first month of the season. Fleury pulled off the rare feat of registering two straight shutout victories on successive nights as his win over the Sharks was preceded by a 2-0 shutout win against Calgary. Fleury has a sparkling 2.19 Goals-Against-Average with a .924 save percentage in eleven starts this month. The Golden Knights have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than two goals in their last game — and they have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a win. Now they go on the road where they are scoring only 2.5 Goals-Per-Game as compared to their meager 2.8 Goals-Per-Game scoring average for the season. Additionally, the Golden Knights have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total when playing their fourth game in seven days. Furthermore, Vegas has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total against teams from the Western Conference. Chicago has played 6 straight home games Under the Total when playing their fourth game in seven days — and the Under is 5-1-1 in their last 7 games against Western Conference foes. They have also played a decisive 47 of their 71 home games Under the Total after a win in overtime. The Blackhawks return home where goalie Corey Crawford has been outstanding this season with a 1.57 GAA along with a .947 save percentage in seven starts this year. The Under is 27-11-2 in Chicago’s last 40 games at home — and they have played 20 of their last 26 home games Under the Total with the number set at 5.5.
FINAL TAKE: In this game between two Stanley Cup-winning goaltenders playing very well right now, expect a lower scoring game. 25* NHL Western Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Vegas Golden Knights (65) and the Chicago Blackhawks (66). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-27-18 |
Hawks v. Heat -7.5 |
Top |
115-113 |
Loss |
-108 |
4 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 7:35 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Miami Heat (503) minus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (504). THE SITUATION: Miami (7-12) has lost four of their last five games with their 125-115 loss at Toronto on Sunday as a 12-point underdog. Atlanta (4-16) snapped their ten-game losing streak on Sunday with their 124-123 upset win over Charlotte as a 6.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HEAT MINUS THE POINTS: The Hawks made 53.2% of their shots against the Hornets in what was the best offensive effort in their last thirteen games. But Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 100 points in their last game. Now the Hawks go back on the road where they are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games against teams with a losing record at home. The Hawks are also just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 trips to Miami to face the Heat. This is a team in complete rebuild mode with a very young group of players led by rookie Trae Young. Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games with the Total set in the 220 to 229.5 point range. The Hawks have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Atlanta is getting out-rebounded by -8.0 RPG — and Miami has covered the point spread in 23 of their last 35 games against teams that out-rebounded by at least -3.0 RPG. The Heat begins a four-game homestand that they fully understand they need to take advantage of given their slow start. Injuries have slowed this team down with Dion Waiters, Goran Dragic, and Tyler Johnson all out for tonight’s game. But the team has seen Dwyane Wade take the court again with the veteran scoring 35 points off the bench in that game with the Raptors. Miami has lost seven of their last nine games — but they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 31 games after losing six or seven of their last eight games including covering the point spread in these last three situations. Furthermore, the Heat have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after allowing at least 115 points — and they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 35 games after a game where at least 235 combined points were scored. Lastly, Miami is looking to avenge a 123-118 road loss to Atlanta as a 5.5-point favorite back on November 13th. The Heat have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 10 games when avenging a loss as a road favorite — and they are also supported by an empirical revenge angle that has been 61% effective over the last five seasons. Teams looking to avenge a loss where they allowed at least 100 points against a team that enters this rematch coming off an upset victory have then covered the point spread in 176 of the last 288 situations where these conditions applied.
FINAL TAKE: The joke in Atlanta is they are in the tank this year because they are “Tryin’ for Zion” as they look to put themselves in a position to have the most ping pong balls to get the first pick in the NBA draft from which they can select Duke forward Zion Williamson. While Miami was not able to acquire Jimmy Butler in a trade, they still have playoff aspirations. The Heat need to win this game to get off to a good start on an important four-game winning streak. 25* NBA Southeast Division Game of the Month with the Miami Heat (503) minus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (504). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-26-18 |
Titans v. Texans UNDER 43 |
Top |
17-34 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (273) and the Houston Texans (274). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (5-5) saw their two-game winning streak snapped last week with their 38-10 loss at Indianapolis as a 1-point underdog. Houston (7-3) has won seven straight games with their 23-21 win at Washington as a 3-point favorite last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Titans lost their defensive coordinator Dean Pees in the middle of their game with the Colts as he went to the hospital with a medical scare — that had to play a role in them allowing 397 yards of offense. Pees has been cleared to run the defense tonight for this game. Expect a better effort from this Tennessee defense that allows only 19.7 PPG along with 305.8 total YPG when they are playing on the road. The Titans have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss by at least 14 points — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a loss by at least three touchdowns. Tennessee has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road. But the Titans only score 16.3 PPG away from home while averaging a mere 297.2 total YPG. Tennessee has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Additionally, the Titans have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total as an underdog. And in their last 6 games against fellow AFC South opponents, the game finished Under the Total all 6 times. Houston has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against AFC South foes. The Texans have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Houston’s previous game was also on the road in what resulted in a 19-17 win at Denver against the Broncos. The Texans have played 6 straight games Under the Total after winning two straight games by 6 points or less. Houston returns home where they are allowing only 19.7 PPG and just 317.5 total YPG. Since Week Five, the Texans are allowing only 17.5 PPG with an improved defense. Furthermore, Houston has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the month of November. And in their last 5 appearances for Monday Night Football, the game finished Under the Total 4 times.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams played back on September 16th with the Titans pulling off a 20-17 upset as the home underdog. Expect another lower-score game in this rematch. 25* AFC South Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (273) and the Houston Texans (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-25-18 |
Packers v. Vikings -3 |
Top |
17-24 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 26 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (272) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (271). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (5-4-1) has lost two of their last three games after their 25-20 loss last Sunday night in Chicago to the Bears as a 2.5-point underdog. Green Bay (4-5-1) has lost three of their last four contests with their 27-24 loss in Seattle last Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS MINUS THE POINTS: Minnesota has been incredibly resilient under head coach Mike Zimmer. The Vikings have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 35 games after a straight up loss. They return home where their defense thrives by holding their visitors to just 19.0 PPG along with 273.4 total YPG. Minnesota has covered the point spread in 18 of their last 24 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Minnesota is also a decisive 36-16-2 ATS in their last 54 games on their home field. Additionally, the Vikings have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the month of November. Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss. And while they allowed 378 yards of offense to the Seahawks last week, they are then just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Green Bay stays on the road this week where they are winless in five games while being outscored by -8.2 PPG in those games due to them allowing 29.8 PPG with the fewest points allowed being 27 to their home hosts. The Packers are just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games away from home. Furthermore, Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games in the month of November — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last games against NFC North foes.
FINAL TAKE: I don’t like where this Packers team is headed this season with head coach Mike McCarthy seemingly now a lame duck while Aaron Rodgers ignores his play selections at the line of scrimmage. Minnesota is also reeling — but their vastly superior roster depth should help them do what it takes to win this game in convincing fashion. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the Minnesota Vikings (272) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (271). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-25-18 |
Ottawa +5 v. Calgary |
Top |
16-27 |
Loss |
-105 |
1 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 6:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Ottawa Redblacks (667) plus the points versus the Calgary Stampeders (668). Ottawa (12-7) reached the Grey Cup for the second time in three seasons with their 46-27 win over Hamilton last week as a 3.5-point favorite. Calgary (14-5) will be playing in their third straight Grey Cup with their 22-14 win over Winnipeg last week as a 5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE REDBLACKS PLUS THE POINTS: Calgary has dominated the regular season the previous two years only to get upset in the Grey Cup as a big favorite in each of the last two seasons. What is different now? Upon close analysis of their season, I simply do not see anything that differentiates this team from the dominant teams of the previous two seasons. One of the reasons why the Stampeders have underachieved in the Grey Cup is that the colder weather slows down their passing attack. In their win last week against the Bombers, Calgary managed only 294 yards of offense with their Most Outstanding Offensive Player winner Bo Levi Mitchell passing for only 199 net yards. The Stamps may finally lift the Cup tonight — but they are prepared to win this game in a grinding, defensive struggle. Edmonton hosts this game this season — and it is expected to have, relatively, a balmy 35-degree Fahrenheit night. But it is still difficult to execute a vertical passing attack with cold hands. It is telling that Calgary has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a game where they did not pass for at least 200 yards. The Stamps have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win. Calgary hopes their top-ranked defense will lead the way tonight. But while they have held their two playoff opponents to just 4.73 and 5.41 Yards-Per-Play, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after not allowing their last two opponents to average above 5.5 YPP. The Stampeders were just 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 games in the playoffs — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight Grey Cups. Ottawa has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after both a straight-up win and after a point spread victory. This is an elite franchise under head coach Rick Campbell in the fifth year of the restarted football team in Ottawa. After leading his team to the surprising Grey Cup championship in 2016, his team took a step back last year with an 8-9-1 record. But six of those losses were by 20 combined points (and none by more than a touchdown) while experiencing little luck with turnovers made the difference in their poor start — they did end the season winning seven of their last ten games. This team has won a few more close games — and they are once again stepping up in the playoffs. Quarterback Trevor Harris has enjoyed great regular seasons — but the questions on him going back two years has been his acumen to play in the cold and his ability to handle the pressure of the playoffs. Harris completed 29 of 32 passes last week in Ottawa (not exactly the Bahamas this time of year) for 367 yards with six touchdown passes and zero interceptions. The Redblacks have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games in the month of November — and they have also covered the point spread in 25 of their last 34 games on the road. Furthermore, Ottawa has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in the playoffs — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games when listed as the underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Ottawa can make a good case that they have been the second best football team in the CFL over the last three seasons. They will be a confident team with thirteen players still on the roster who pulled this upset two seasons ago. The Redblacks will also have a chip on his shoulder as they look to avenge a 27-3 loss to Calgary back in mid-July in the idyllic days of the World Cup. Calgary has twenty-seven players still on the team that suffered the upset two years ago. Pressure may be the biggest enemy of this team now after two long offseasons disappointment. The Stamps might finally get it done tonight — but it will not be easy. 25* CFL Playoff Game of the Year with the Ottawa Redblacks (667) plus the points versus the Calgary Stampeders (668). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-25-18 |
Steelers v. Broncos UNDER 48 |
Top |
17-24 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (269) and the Denver Broncos (270). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (7-2-1) has won six straight games with their 20-16 win over Jacksonville last week as a 4-point favorite. Denver (4-6) snapped their two-game losing streak last Sunday with their 23-22 win in Los Angeles against the Chargers.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Broncos have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a win on the road — and the Under is 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after a straight-up win. Denver allowed 479 yards in that contest — but the Under is then 6-0-1 in their last 7 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest. The Broncos return home where they have played 9 of their last 11 home games Under the Total against a team with a winning record on the road. Denver has also played 4 straight games Under the Total in the month of November. And in their last 6 games as an underdog, the Broncos have played 5 of these games Under the Total. They will certainly try to run the ball to burn time off the clock to keep the Steelers off the field. That is what the Jaguars did last week as Pittsburgh was only on offense for 22:20 minutes of that game. As a result, the Steelers generated only 323 yards of offense. Pittsburgh did hold Jacksonville to only 243 yards of offense — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing less than 250 yards in their last game. The Steelers defense has raised their level of play — over their last three games, they are allowing only 17.7 PPG along with just 251.0 total YPG. Now Pittsburgh goes back on the road where they have played 21 of their last 27 games Under the Total — and they have also played 12 of their last 13 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. Furthermore, not only have the Steelers played 30 of their last 43 road games Under the Total with the Total set at 45.5 or higher but they have also played 8 straight road games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Lastly, Pittsburgh has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against fellow AFC opponents.
FINAL TAKE: The Steelers offense is not nearly as potent when playing on the road they are scoring 5.5 PPG below their season average. 25* NFL Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (269) and the Denver Broncos (270). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-25-18 |
Patriots v. Jets UNDER 46.5 |
Top |
27-13 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 36 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (261) and the New York Jets (262). THE SITUATION: New England (7-3) saw their six-game winning streak snapped two weeks ago with their 34-10 loss at Tennessee as a 6.5-point favorite. New York (3-7) has lost four straight games with their 41-10 loss to Buffalo two Sundays ago where they were a 7-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Patriots have played 4 straight games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. It is time for Bill Belichick and his coaching staff to get back to basics: run the football to burn time off the clock and protect their defense. New England has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last contest. This is particularly the case when the Patriots go on the road where their offense is not nearly as explosive as it is in Foxboro. New England is scoring only 20.6 PPG on the road while averaging 312.6 total YPG — and those numbers are far below their 28.0 PPG scoring average along with the 377.2 total YPG they are averaging this season. The Patriots have played 7 of their last 9 road games Under the Total — and they have also played 6 straight road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. Furthermore, New England has played 13 of their last 17 road games Under the Total after the first month of the season. The Patriots defense has been playing pretty well. Even after their bad effort against the Titans the last time out, they have held their last three opponents to score only 19.0 PPG while averaging just 362.0 total YPG. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against fellow AFC East opponents. New York has seen the Under go 3-1-1 in their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home — and they have also played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a double-digit upset loss at home. Rookie quarterback Sam Darnold has been declared out for this game with his foot injury — so it will be the veteran Josh McCown under center for this game. What McCown bring in his savvy and knowledge to this position is mitigated by his limited physical skills. He completed 17 of 34 passes against the Bills but that only resulted in 135 yards of offense — and he threw two interceptions. The Jets have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after failing to pass for at least 150 yards in their last game. New York is scoring an anemic 8.7 PPG over their last three games while averaging just 229.3 total YPG. The Jets need to run the football to keep Tom Brady off the field. The Jets defense has been playing pretty well — they have held their last three opponents to just 338.0 total YPG. The Bills behind Matt Barkley (!) generated 451 yards against them in their last game — but they have played 38 of their last 60 games Under the Total after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. And in their last 13 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last contest, the Jets have played 9 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: This is the first meeting between these two teams this season — they last played on December 31st where the Patriots won by a 26-6 score. These two teams have played 4 straight games Under the Total — look for this afternoon showdown to make it five in a row. 25* AFC East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (261) and the New York Jets (262). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-24-18 |
Utah State +3 v. Boise State |
Top |
24-33 |
Loss |
-130 |
1 h 28 m |
Show
|
At 10:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Utah State Aggies (181) plus the points versus the Boise State Broncos (182). THE SITUATION: Utah State (10-1) enters their final game of the regular season coming off a 29-24 win at Colorado State as a 30.5-point favorite. Boise State (9-2) enters this game coming off a 45-14 win at New Mexico as a 21-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE AGGIES PLUS THE POINTS: The close call with the Rams should get the attention of this team. Those 29 points were the second-fewest that Utah State has scored all season — and two of their touchdowns were scored on defense. The Aggies are second in the nation by scoring 49.3 PPG but they only had the ball for 17:55 minutes in that game against Colorado State. The weather did play a role in that contest — but that close call will help head coach Matt Wells communicate that his team can take nothing for granted tonight. Utah State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. The Aggies have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up victory. Utah State has been very good on the road this year where their only loss was a 7-point loss at East Lansing against Michigan State in their opening game of the season. The Aggies are 4-1 away from home this year while outscoring their hosts by +14.0 PPG. Utah State needs to play better on defense this week after allowing 506 yards to Colorado State last week. The Rams have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. Utah State ranks 34th in the nation by allowing only 22.1 PPG. The Total is set in the high-60s for this game — and the Aggies have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games with the Total set at 63 or higher. Boise State had only scored 45 combined points in their previous two games at home against San Diego State and Fresno State before traveling to Albuquerque to face the Lobos last week. The Broncos are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. Boise State held New Mexico and their run-based spread offense to just 103 passing yards (on just 14 pass attempts). The Broncos’ previous five opponents had generated at least 242 passing yards with that lowest number being from a run-oriented Air Force team that averaged 15.1 Yards-Per-Attempt in the air. Boise State allows 226.9 passing YPG which is just 63rd in the nation — and that likely spells trouble when now facing quarterback Jordan Love who leads an offense that is 22nd in the nation by averaging 282.1 passing YPG. The Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight games after not allowing more than 125 passing yards in their last game. Boise State enjoyed a +3 net turnover margin in that win over the Lobos after not committing a turnover in that game. But the Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 home games after a game where they did not commit a turnover. Boise State has also failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games on their blue field at home. And in their last 19 games against teams with a winning record, the Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of these contests.
FINAL TAKE: The winner of this game advances to the Mountain West Conference Championship Game — so the stakes could not be higher. The Aggies also will have revenge on their minds after getting blown out by the Broncos last year by a 41-14 score. Eighteen starters returned from that team. Wells’ teams in the past could not win close games — they entered this season having lost their last eight games decided by one scoring possession. But after that opening loss to Michigan State, Utah State has won their only two games decided by one score with the experience of this team finally paying off. Don’t be surprised if this team pulls the upset — but take the points for some insurance. 25* CFB Saturday ESPN Bailout Game of the Year with the Utah State Aggies (181) plus the points versus the Boise State Broncos (182). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-24-18 |
Spurs v. Bucks -9.5 |
Top |
129-135 |
Loss |
-105 |
1 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 8:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Milwaukee Bucks (710) minus the points versus the San Antonio Spurs (709). THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (13-5) saw their three-game winning streak snapped last night with an embarrassing 116-114 loss to Phoenix despite being big 13.5-point favorites. San Antonio (9-9) had lost five of their last six games before upsetting the Pacers in Indiana last night by a 111-100 score as a 1.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKS MINUS THE POINTS: Milwaukee should rebound with a strong effort tonight as they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a point spread defeat. The Bucks are also 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games when playing without rest. Milwaukee has only lost twice in their nine games at home this season even after last night — and they are outscoring their visitors by +16.2 PPG. The Bucks are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games on their home court. San Antonio has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread victory. Furthermore, the new-look Spurs have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games when playing without rest. This team is undermanned right now with both Pau Gasol and Dejounte Murray out with injuries. Being without Murray really hurts since he is the glue to their efforts on the defensive end of the court. Hall of Fame head coach Gregg Popovich has suddenly found himself behind the times in the league with a roster that is too willing to take lower-percentage mid-range 2-point shots as opposed to the en vogue style of layups or 3-pointers. His protege, Mike Budenholzer, has done a masterful job already in his first season with Milwaukee — and his team has been successful in coaxing opponents into taking lower-percentage shots inside the arc. San Antonio made 50.6% of their shots last night — but that was their best shooting effort in their last eleven contests. This is a bad matchup for the Spurs. Lastly, they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 road games against teams with a winning record at home.
FINAL TAKE: Look for this upstart Bucks team to respond with a convincing effort tonight. 25* NBA TV Game of the Month with the Milwaukee Bucks (710) minus the points versus the San Antonio Spurs (709). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-24-18 |
UAB v. Middle Tennessee State UNDER 52 |
Top |
3-27 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the UAB Blazers (189) and the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (190). THE SITUATION: UAB (9-2) looks to bounce-back from a 41-20 loss at Texas A&M last Saturday as a 17-point underdog. Middle Tennessee (7-4) saw their four-game winning streak snapped with their step up in class against a team from the SEC last week in their 34-23 loss at Kentucky as a 16.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Don’t blame the Blue Raiders defense for their loss to the Wildcats as they held Kentucky to just 324 yards of offense. A -2 net turnover margin played a critical role in deciding that game. The Under is 7-1-1 in Middle Tennessee’s last 9 games after a straight-up loss. The Blue Raiders surrendered 203 rushing yards to Kentucky in that game — but the Under is 6-1-1 in their last 8 games after allowing at least 200 rushing yards in their last game. Senior quarterback Brent Stockstill did pass for 293 yards in that game — but the Under is 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last contest. Now Middle Tennessee returns home where they are allowing only 21.0 PPG which is 6.2 PPG lower than their season average. The Under is 8-1-1 in the Blue Raiders’ last 10 games at home — and they have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Middle Tennessee has also played 9 of their last 10 home games Under the Total with the number set in the 49.5 to 52 point range. UAB has played 4 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a loss by at least 20 points. This team did surrender 41 points to the Aggies last week — but they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. UAB holds their home hosts to just 19.0 PPG along with only 294.2 total YPG when playing on the road. But the Blazers see their 31.9 PPG scoring margin for the season drop to just 26.6 PPG when playing away home. UAB has played 8 of their last 10 road games Under the Total. Furthermore, the Blazers have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total against fellow Conference USA opponents.
FINAL TAKE: UAB has clinched a spot in the Conference USA championship game next week — and they could face this Blue Raiders team again next week if they lose this game while FIU loses at Marshall (as now a home dog). The Blazers may hold back a trick or two on offense because of this possibility. UAB won last year’s game by a 25-23 score with that total set in the 55.5 range. Expect another lower-scoring game. 25* CFB Conference USA Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the UAB Blazers (189) and the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (190). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-24-18 |
Navy v. Tulane -5.5 |
Top |
28-29 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Tulane Green Wave (214) minus the points versus the Navy Midshipmen (213). THE SITUATION: Tulane (5-6) saw their three-game winning streak snapped last Thursday with their 48-17 loss at Houston as a 7.5-point underdog. Navy (3-8) snapped their seven-game losing streak with their 37-29 win over Tulsa last Saturday as 5-point favorites.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GREEN WAVE MINUS THE POINTS: Tulane has failed to cover the point spread in their last two games — but they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to cover the point spread in their last two contests. The Green Wave is also 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games after failing to score at least 20 points in their last game. Now, this Tulane team returns home where they are outscoring their visitors by +7.4 PPG while out-gaining these opponents by +46.5 net YPG. The Green Wave have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 home games again teams with a losing record on the road. Additionally, Tulane has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 home games when favored in the 3.5 to 7.5 point range — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games with the Total set in the 49.5 to 56 point range. The Green Wave are doing a good job of implementing head coach Willie Fritz’s run-first spread offense as they rank 25th in the nation by averaging 215.5 rushing YPG. This ground game should have plenty of success against the faltering Midshipmen defense that ranks 92nd in the nation by allowing 194.5 rushing YPG. It has been a lost season for this Navy team that returned only nine starters from a team that dropped six of their last seven games in the regular season last year. With this group not eligible for a bowl with just three wins, this team may be looking ahead for their rivalry game with Army. As it is, the Midshipmen are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up win. Navy has been a disaster on the road this season where they are 0-6 with an average losing margin of -20.3 net PPG. They are also being out-gained by -154.1 net YPG in these six road games. The Midshipmen have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games. Navy has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: Tulane needs this victory to become bowl eligible for the first time in Fritz’s three years with the program. They are also playing with revenge on their mind after losing to the Midshipmen last year by a 23-21 score. The Green Wave did limit Navy to just 194 rushing yards in that game as they contained their spread triple option to averaging just 3.73 Yards-Per-Carry. I like that Tulane had an extra two days of rest and preparation for this unique offense. 25* CFB American Athletic Conference Game of the Year with the Tulane Green Wave (214) minus the points versus the Navy Midshipmen (213). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-23-18 |
Oklahoma v. West Virginia +3 |
Top |
59-56 |
Push |
0 |
3 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the West Virginia Mountaineers (142) plus the points versus the Oklahoma Sooners (141). THE SITUATION: West Virginia (8-2) looks to bounce-back from a 45-41 upset loss at Oklahoma State last week as a 6-point favorite. Oklahoma (10-1) has won five straight games with their 55-40 victory over Kansas last week as a 35-point favorite. The winner of this game earns the right to play Texas next week in the Big 12 Championship Game.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MOUNTAINEERS PLUS THE POINTS: West Virginia had won three straight games before being upset by the Cowboys — but Dana Holgorsen’s team can redeem themselves from that loss with a win tonight. Led by Heisman Trophy candidate Will Grier at quarterback, the Mountaineers have a powerful offense that ranks 10th in the nation by averaging 502.0 total YPG. West Virginia has scored at least 41 points in four straight games and they generated 553 yards of offense last week against Oklahoma State. The Mountaineers have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 525 yards in their last game. They return home where they are a perfect 5-0 while scoring 46.0 PPG and generating 540.2 total YPG. Grier leads a passing attack that is 5th in the nation by averaging 340.0 passing YPG — and he should have plenty of success against this Sooners’ pass defense that ranks 107th in the nation by allowing 263.6 passing YPG. Defense is an issue for this West Virginia team (as it is for all Big 12 teams). But they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. Playing back in Morgantown should help this team as they are allowing only 13.8 PPG along with just 281.2 total YPG at home. West Virginia is outscoring their opponents by +32.8 net PPG while out-gaining their guests by +259 net YPG. The Mountaineers have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games as the underdog. West Virginia is also 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games against teams with a winning record. Oklahoma may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win over a conference rival. The Sooners did generate 568 yards against the Jayhawks — they averaged 7.89 Yards-Per-Play in that game. Oklahoma had averaged 9.12 YPP in their previous game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 road games after averaging at least 6.75 YPP in their last two games. The bigger concern for this team is on the other side of the football where they have allowed at least 40 points in three straight games. The Sooners are allowing 425.8 total YPG which not only ranks 87th in the nation but is -73.6 net YPG worse than what West Virginia allows. Oklahoma allowed the Kansas offense to generate 524 yards against them — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. Furthermore, not only have the Sooners failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road but they have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games as the favorite.
FINAL TAKE: Last year’s Oklahoma team allowed under 395 yards per game — yet head coach Lincoln Riley fired defensive coordinator Mike Stoops for that unit finishing outside the top-50 in defense for the sixth time since 2012. This defense appears even worse. Look for West Virginia to outscore this Sooners team back on their home field. 25* CFB Friday ESPN Game of the Year with the West Virginia Mountaineers (142) plus the points versus the Oklahoma Sooners (141). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-23-18 |
Flames v. Golden Knights -128 |
Top |
0-2 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 6:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Vegas Golden Knights (64) versus the Calgary Flames (63). THE SITUATION: Vegas (10-12-0) has won two of their last three games with their 3-2 win in overtime at Arizona on Wednesday. Calgary (13-8-0) has won three straight games after they defeated Winnipeg on Wednesday by a 6-3 score.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN KNIGHTS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Vegas was a prime candidate to take a step or two back this season after their miraculous inaugural season last year where they reached the Stanley Cup Finals as the representative of the Western Conference. But the Golden Knights made two very acquisitions in the offseason when they picked up left winger Max Pacioretty and center Paul Stastny in the offseason to profile the team some real star power. Stastny has not played much this season as he deals with a lower-body injury and Pacioretty has struggled in the transition to his new team after playing for years in Montreal. But Pacioretty has is beginning to heat up as he has scored four goals in his last three games. Vegas find themselves near the bottom of the Western Conference standings but it would be a mistake to count them out of the playoff race. For starters, they have played thirteen of their first twenty-two games on the road — so more games back at home in T-Mobile Stadium will help this team. While they host a Flames team that is 6-5-0 on the road, the Golden Knights have won a decisive 18 of their last 22 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Vegas has also won 6 straight home games after a game that went into overtime. The deeper metrics also suggest this team is underachieving. The Golden Knights rank 3rd in the NHL in Fenwick-For percentage while rising to 2nd best in the league in Corsi-For percentage — these are metrics that dissect puck possession advantages. Vegas has also been perhaps the most unlucky team in the NHL with the third lowest shot percentage on offense and the highest opponent’s shooting percentage in the league. The Golden Knights were definitely the beneficiaries of puck-luck last year — William Karlsson saw an incredible 23.4% of his shots going into the back of the net last season. But the Regression Gods are over-correcting now with this team only seeing 6.8% of their shots score goals. Furthermore, Vegas thrives when facing fellow Pacific Division opponents — yet this will be just their seventh game against a divisional rival this season. With their win over the Coyotes, the Golden Knights have won 30 of their last 42 games against Pacific opponents. Vegas now gets the opportunity to avenge an ugly 7-2 loss to the Flames back on Monday of this week where backup goalie Malcolm Subban struggled by allowing five goals in the first period. It will be Marc-Andre Fleury between the pipes for this one. The emotional leader of this team has a 2.22 Goals-Against-Average along with a .917 save percentage at home this season — and he also enjoys a 1.56 GAA along with a .937 save percentage against Pacific Division teams so far this year. Vegas should play well in this one as they have won 10 of their last 12 games after a victory by one goal over a divisional rival. Calgary built on the momentum of their win at home against the Golden Knights on Monday with their win over the Jets on Wednesday — but they have then lost 5 of their last 7 games after winning their last two games by at least three goals. The Flames have also lost 9 of their last 14 games after scoring at least four goals in their last two contests. Now after playing their last four games at home, Calgary goes back on the road where they have lost 10 of their last 12 games against teams with a winning record on home ice. The Flames have also lost 5 of their last 8 games after playing their last four games at home. They have been having goaltending problems with the aging veteran Mike Smith. David Rittich has played more in goal and has a strong 2.04 GAA along with a .930 save percentage this season. But those numbers are not likely sustainable especially considering he had a 2.92 GAA with a .901 save percentage last year. Calgary has won four of their last six games but they have then lost 5 of their last 7 games after winning four or five of their last six games.
FINAL TAKE: Vegas is better than their record indicates — and they will be very motivated to avenge their loss of earlier this week. This is exactly one of the situations I have been looking for in the first-half of the season. With the Golden Knights being priced below my -150 money-line threshold, let’s attack. 25* NHL Game of the Month with the money-line on the Vegas Golden Knights (64) versus the Calgary Flames (63). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-23-18 |
Nebraska v. Iowa -8 |
Top |
28-31 |
Loss |
-102 |
3 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Iowa Hawkeyes (124) minus the points versus the Nebraska Cornhuskers (123). THE SITUATION: Iowa (7-4) snapped their three-game losing streak last Saturday with their dominant 63-0 win at Illinois as a 15-point favorite. Nebraska (4-7) has won two straight as well as four of their last five games with their 9-6 win over Michigan State as a 1.5-point favorite last week.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HAWKEYES MINUS THE POINTS: Iowa should build off the momentum of their blowout victory. They have covered the point spread in 5 of the last 7 games after both a straight-up win as well as after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Hawkeyes are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. Head coach Kirk Ferentz’s team is one of the best defensive teams in the nation. They rank 9th in the FBS by allowing only 16.5 PPG — and they rank an even better 6th in the nation by giving up only 279.5 total YPG. After playing three of their last four games on the road, they return home to Iowa City for Senior Day where they are outscoring their opponents by +11.3 PPG due their stifling defense that limits their visitors to just 11.0 PPG along with a mere 243.8 total YPG. Iowa is also out-gaining their guests by +125.4 total YPG. The Hawkeyes are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games on their home field. Iowa has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a losing record. Nebraska defeated Sparty in the snow last Saturday despite being outgained by -41 net yards. The Cornhuskers managed only 248 yards of offense against the Michigan State defense. That is not a good sign for this contest. Not only are they just 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game but they are also 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after failing to generate more than 275 yards of offense in that contest. Head coach Scott Frost’s team is also just 2-10-2 ATS in their last 14 games after a point spread victory. Not they finish their disappointing season on the road where they are 0-4 this year while being outscored by -17.7 net PPG and out-gained by -102.5 net YPG.
FINAL TAKE: Frost has to get his team into the weight room as he looks to change the nature of this Nebraska program. The Cornhuskers’ defense has plummeted over the years — these Blackshirts rank tied for 96th in the nation by allowing 434.8 total YPG. These soft defenses are the type of teams that the Hawkeyes expose in the Ferentz era — especially when playing at home in Kinnick Stadium. 25* CFB Big Ten Game of the Year with the Iowa Hawkeyes (124) minus the points versus the Nebraska Cornhuskers (123). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-22-18 |
Falcons v. Saints OVER 59 |
Top |
17-31 |
Loss |
-103 |
14 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Atlanta Falcons (109) and the New Orleans (110). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (4-6) has lost two straight games with their 22-19 loss to Dallas as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday. New Orleans (9-1) has won nine straight games with their 48-7 blowout victory over Philadelphia on Sunday as a 7-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Saints cranked out a whopping 546 yards of offense against the reigning Super Bowl champions — and they have played 16 of their last 21 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. New Orleans defense did hold the Eagles to just 196 total yards of offense — but they have played 30 of their last 43 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Head coach Sean Payton has his offense push the pace when playing on the fast turf at home in the Superdome. Drew Brees has a perfect 16:0 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his five home games this year while averaging 350.8 passing YPG. The Saints are averaging 39.4 PPG when playing at home while allowing their visitors to manage 25.4 PPG to result in an average combined score well into the 60s. The Over is 19-8-1 in New Orleans’ last 28 home games. Furthermore, the Saints have played 13 of their last 18 games Over the Total when a double-digit favorite. New Orleans is the hottest team in the league who have covered the point spread in eight straight games — and they have played 11 of their last 13 games Over the Total after covering the point spread in at least five straight games. The Saints have also played 4 straight games Over the Total against fellow NFC South rivals. Atlanta would surely like to run the ball to keep the Saints’ offense off the field but that will be difficult to accomplish with Devonta Freeman on Injured Reserve with his foot injury. The Falcons will not have the luxury of hoping to establish the run if they fall behind early to this New Orleans team that averages 22.4 first-half points when playing at home. Atlanta has played 16 of their last 21 games Over the Total when playing on field turf. Additionally, the Falcons have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. The injury-plagued Atlanta defense will have a difficult time slowing down the Saints offense after allowing their last two opponents to churn out 353 rushing yards while averaging 6.66 Yards-Per-Carry. The Falcons lack a credible pass rush — they rank in the bottom-five in the NFL by sacking the QB in just 4.8% of opponent pass attempts and they are just hitting the quarterback in 11.1% of their dropbacks. Matt Ryan still has most of his offensive weapons at his disposal in the passing game — so the Falcons should score their share of points as they try to keep pace with the New Orleans offense. Atlanta only generated 329 yards against Dallas last week but that was in large part because they had ten fewer offensive plays than what they typically enjoy. The Falcons still averaged 6.23 Yards-Per-Play against the Cowboys — and they have played 14 of their last 20 games Over the Total after averaging at least 6.0 YPP in their last game. Atlanta has played 14 of their last 18 road games Over the Total as a road underdog getting 10.5 to 14 points — and they have played 16 of their last 23 games Over the Total with the number set at 49.5 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: New Orleans won the first meeting between these two teams back on September 23rd that the Saints won by a 43-37 score. That was the game where the Falcons began to produce better success in the Red Zone. Atlanta has scored at least 31 points five times this season — and head coach Dan Quinn will have to think that generating at least that many points will be necessary to pull the upset. That is a recipe for another high scoring game. 25* NFC South Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Atlanta Falcons (109) and the New Orleans (110). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-22-18 |
Mississippi State v. Ole Miss +13 |
Top |
35-3 |
Loss |
-105 |
3 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Mississippi Rebels (114) plus the points versus the Mississippi State Bulldogs (113). THE SITUATION: Mississippi (5-6) has lost four straight games with their 36-29 loss in overtime at Vanderbilt as a 3-point underdog last Saturday. Mississippi State (7-4) has won three of their last four games after enjoying their biggest victory of the season last week with their 52-6 blowout win over Arkansas as a 23.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE REBELS PLUS THE POINTS: Ole Miss seemingly scored the winning touchdown in overtime before a penalty erased that play. It has been a disappointing season in the first-year under head coach Matt Luke who had the interim job last year after the program imploded when the actions of grifter Hugh Freeze came to light. The football program imposed a bowl ban for this year’s team — so this is the proverbial de-facto bowl game for this team with its nineteen seniors. In this rivalry game, don’t be surprised if Ole Miss plays their best game of the season. They have lost four games in a row — but they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after losing four straight games. They outgained the Commodores last week by a decisive 578 to 387 yardage margin but somehow found a way to lose that game. But this team plays their opponents close — they are out-gaining their opponents by +50.5 net YPG while out-gaining their last three opponents by +78.4 net YPG despite losing all three contests. Now after playing their last two games on the road, Ole Miss returns home where they are outscoring their out-gaining their opponents by +79.6 net YPG. This Rebels offense can score points on anyone. They rank 5th in the nation by averaging 539.7 total YPG — and they score 41.8 PPG while generating 572.3 total YPG when playing on their home field. Senior quarterback Jordan Ta’amu has passed for 3831 yards this season while tossing 19 touchdowns while throwing just seven interceptions. Ta’amu is second in the NFL by averaging 348.2 passing YPG — and he has a dynamic target in wide receiver A.J. Brown who has 1259 receiving yards this season. This duo makes Ole Miss a dangerous underdog — they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 home games as an underdog getting 7.5 to 14 points. The Rebels have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 22 games at home with the Total set int one 56.5 to 63 point range. Ole Miss has played their last two games Under the Total — but they have then covered the point spread in 23 of their last 40 games after playing their last two games Under the Total. And in their last 7 games played on a Thursday, the Rebels have covered the point spread in 5 of these games. Mississippi State may be due for a letdown after playing their best game of the season. That is not a good sign for a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after winning three of their last four games. And while the Bulldogs have covered the point spread in three of their last four games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in a decisive 29 of their last 44 games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games — and this includes failing to cover the point spread in five of these last six situations. Furthermore, Mississippi State has failed to cover the points spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a win over a conference rival. Don’t be surprised if turnovers play a role in this game. While the Bulldogs have not committed more than one turnover in four straight games, they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games when not experiencing more than one turnover in four straight contests. They go back on the road where they are 1-3 this season while being outscored by -10.0 net PPG. The problem for this team away from home is they are scoring only 10.2 PPG away from home. The hope of first-year head coach Joe Moorhead was that he could establish a vertical passing attack for senior quarterback Nick Fitzgerald. Instead, Mississippi State is completing only 44.7% of their pass attempts on the road while averaging a mere 121.0 passing YPG which is 60 YPG below their season average. The Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games against teams without a winning percentage higher than 50% at home. Furthermore, the Bulldogs are just 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 trips to OIe Miss in the Egg Bowl.
FINAL TAKE: Mississippi State does bring a great defense into this game — but they will be facing a confident Rebels team that returned 15 starters (including Ta’amu and Brown) who pulled a 31-28 upset on the road as 14-point underdogs last season. This is where the hiring of Moorhead from Penn State where he was offensive coordinator may be a negative since as an outsider he lacks an appreciation for this rivalry game. The underdog has covered the point spread in 5 of the last 6 meetings between these two teams. Expect Ole Miss to keep this game closer than expected. 25* CFB SEC Game of the Year with the Mississippi Rebels (114) plus the points versus the Mississippi State Bulldogs (113). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-22-18 |
Redskins +8.5 v. Cowboys |
Top |
23-31 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 4:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Washington Redskins (107) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (108). THE SITUATION: Washington (6-4) has lost two of their last three games with their 23-21 loss to Houston on Sunday as a 3-point underdog. Dallas (5-5) pulled off their second-straight upset victory on Sunday with their 22-19 win in Atlanta over the Falcons as a 3.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SKINS PLUS THE POINTS: The bigger news for Washington was the gruesome leg injury to quarterback Alex Smith that ended his season in eerily similar ways to what to Joe Theismann for the team over two decades ago. The offense is now in the hands of the nine-year veteran Colt McCoy. I am a bit more bullish on what McCoy can do running this offense than the general public. The former Texas star has 25 professional starts under his belt with a firm understanding of the Jay Gruden offense having been with the Skins for 4 1/2 seasons. McCoy does not have a strong arm — but neither does Smith. I expect McCoy to capably run the offense while limiting his mistakes and letting the stout Skins’ defense keep them in the game. I certainly expect Washington to play hard in this crucial NFC East contest. As it is, the Skins have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games on the road after a loss at home. Additionally, Washington has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42 point range. Furthermore, the Skins have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games in the month of November — and they have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 trips to Dallas to face the Cowboys. Dallas returns home after pulling off two straight upset wins on the road against the Eagles and Falcons — but this remains a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after a win on the road by a field goal or less. This is not a franchise that handles short-term prosperity very well. The Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 home games against teams with a winning record at home. Dallas held Atlanta to just 324 yards of offense due in large measure to limiting them to 10 fewer snaps on offense versus their season average. The Cowboys have allowed their last two opponents to average 6.23 and 7.02 Yards-Per-Play — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after allowing their last two opponents to average at least 6.5 YPP. Dallas has also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 10 games played on a Thursday, the Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of these contests.
FINAL TAKE: Four of Dallas’ five victories this season have been decided by one scoring possession. They may win this game — but this should be a close contest between divisional rivals with first-place and playoff positioning on the line. Taking the points will be valuable with a Washington team that should rally around each other after the injury to their starting quarterback. 25* NFC East Game of the Month with the Washington Redskins (107) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (108). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-22-18 |
Auburn v. Arizona UNDER 152.5 |
Top |
73-57 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 11:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Auburn Tigers (577) and the Arizona Wildcats (578). THE SITUATION: Auburn (4-1) lost in the Semifinals of the Maui Invitational last night by a 78-72 score to Duke as 11-point underdogs. Arizona (4-1) then lost in the Semifinals of this tournament to Gonzaga by a 91-74 score as an 11-point underdog as well.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Wildcats made only 41.2% of their shots against the Bulldogs. 3-point shooting is an issue for this team as I flagged yesterday in the Report taking Gonzaga. Arizona makes only 30.4% of their 3-point shots which ranks 266th in the nation — and that is exactly what they shot last night by making only 7 of their 23 shots (30.4%) from behind the arc. While this subpar 3-point shooting has been consistent, expect the Wildcats to play better on the defensive end of the court after Gonzaga made 53.1% of their shots. That was Arizona’s worst defensive effort of this young season — but they are still holding their opponents to just a 39.9% field goal percentage for the season. The Wildcats have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. Additionally, Arizona has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing no more than 90 points in their last game. Additionally, the Under is 4-1-1 in the Wildcats’ last 6 games against teams with a winning percentage below 60% — and the Under is also 6-1-1 in their last 8 games against teams outside the Pac-12. And in their last 5 games played on a neutral court, the Under is 3-1-1. Auburn held Duke to a 44.4% field goal percentage which was the worst defensive performance in their last three games. The Tigers rank 17th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Bruce Pearl will want his team to commit fewer personal fouls after being whistled for 24 fouls against the Blue Devils. Auburn was called for 23 personal fouls the previous day in their opening round game against Xavier — but they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after being whistled for at least 22 fouls in two straight games. The Tigers have also played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after winning four of their last five games. And in their last 6 games played on a neutral court, the game finished Under the Total 5 times.
FINAL TAKE: Both these teams are playing their third game in three days — so fatigue might be a factor. Both Pearl and Sean Miller want their teams to have their defense serve as the foundation of their team play — so expect intensity on that end of the court to be a priority for both teams in this consolation game. 25* CBB Maui Invitational Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Auburn Tigers (577) and the Arizona Wildcats (578). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-21-18 |
Knicks v. Celtics OVER 216 |
Top |
117-109 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 7:35 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Knicks (507) and the Boston Celtics (508). THE SITUATION: New York (4-14) has lost six straight games after their 118-114 loss to Portland last night as a 7.5-point underdog. Boston (9-8) has lost two straight games after their 117-112 loss in Charlotte on Monday as a 3.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Knicks have played 4 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point spread setback. New York has also played 21 of their last 31 games Over the Total when playing without a day of rest. Now the Knicks go back on the road where they are allowing their home hosts to score 117.8 PPG while shooting 48.9% from the field. Over their last five games, New York is seeing their opponents make 50.1% of their shots. The Knicks have played 4 straight games Over the Total on the road — and they have also played 5 straight road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Boston has suffered two straight upset loss as their upset loss against the Hornets was preceded by a 98-86 loss at home to Utah as a 4-point favorite on Saturday. The Celtics have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread loss — and they have also played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total after an upset loss as a road favorite. Furthermore, Boston has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after enduring two straight upset losses. Now the Celtics return home where they have played 6 of their last 8 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Boston is a heavy favorite tonight being asked to lay 14 or so points. The Celtics should play well tonight — expect a high scoring game. 25* NBA Atlantic Division Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the New York Knicks (507) and the Boston Celtics (508). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-20-18 |
Arizona v. Gonzaga -10 |
Top |
74-91 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 10:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Gonzaga Bulldogs (748) minus the points versus the Arizona Wildcats (747). THE SITUATION: Arizona (4-0) reached the Semifinals of the Maui Invitational with their 71-66 win over Iowa State last night as a 1.5-point favorite. Gonzaga (4-0) matched that achievement by defeating Illinois by an 84-78 score last night as a 15.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS MINUS THE POINTS: The Wildcats are a college basketball team in transition. For starters, they lost all five starters from last year’s team — and that includes two NBA players in DeAndre Ayton and Allonzo Trier. The team is also under intense scrutiny from the NCAA regarding alleged recruiting violations by head coach Sean Miller. Arizona defeated a depleted Cyclones team last night who were missing four players including two starters. They are only making 30.3% of their shots from behind the arc which ranks 259th in the nation — and not being able to make 3s against this powerhouse Gonzaga scoring machine will spell trouble for them. As it is, the Wildcats are just 8-19-1 ATS in their last 28 games against teams with a winning record. Arizona has also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 18 games when playing their second game in three days. The Wildcats have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams from the West Coast Conference. Gonzaga has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games when playing their second game in three days. The Bulldogs have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games against Pac-12 opponents. This team is playing at a fast pace — they are averaging only 13.5 seconds per possession which is the 5th fastest rate in the nation and almost three seconds faster than their 16.2 seconds per possession rate last year. Gonzaga is also ranked 5th in the nation with an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 116.2. The Bulldogs had scored at least 93 points in three straight games before last night — and all three of those wins were by at least 23 points. Gonzaga has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 80 points in their last game. The Bulldogs have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. This team is without forward Killian Tillie who is out until January with an ankle injury but they have an emerging star at that position in Rui Hamchimura.
FINAL TAKE: Gonzaga is a legitimate contender to win the national championship this year — and games like this are important in building their resume for seeding in that tournament since they play in a middling mid-major conference. Expect a strong effort from the Bulldogs tonight which will likely set up a finals showdown with Duke. 25* CBB Maui Invitational Game of the Year is on the Gonzaga Bulldogs (748) minus the points versus the Arizona Wildcats (747). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-19-18 |
Chiefs v. Rams OVER 62 |
Top |
51-54 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (473) and the Los Angeles Rams (474). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (9-1) has won four straight games with their 26-14 win over Arizona last week as a 16.5-point favorite. Los Angeles (9-1) enters this game coming off a 36-31 win over Seattle last week as a 10-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: With the oddsmakers installing the total in the 63 range, this is the largest over/under in NFL history. Of course, numbers like this are not uncommon when betting College Football. With the number this high, it seems like the books are begging bettors to take the Under. I am not taking the bait. I see three reasons why this game is going over the number. First, the pace of this game will be fast. Both coaches like to play up-tempo on offense. Neither head coach is very concerned with controlling the time off possession. When both teams are playing fast, that will increase the number of possessions for both teams. Second, both head coaches will play this game aggressively since they both will likely think that they will need to score at least 30 points to win this game. This expectation helps make the Over a self-fulfilling prophecy. Los Angeles has scored at least 33 points in eight of their games while Kansas City has scored at least 30 points in eight of their contests. But Los Angeles has given up 31 points four times including in both of their last two games. Kansas City has allowed at least 27 points in four of their games. Third, since both teams struggle to stop the run, both offenses will have advantageous down-and-distance opportunities on second and third down which will maximize their play-calling flexibility. The Chiefs allow their opponents to average 5.11 Yards-Per-Carry while the Rams allow opposing rushers to average 4.92 Yards-Per-Carry. Second-and-five situations are great for the offense. Los Angeles has played 21 of their last 31 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Kansas City has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Lastly, the Chiefs have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total as the underdog.
FINAL TAKE: I think both of these teams have already played games that are likely blue prints for how this game will be played out. Kansas City fell behind early but kept pushing the pace before New England outlasted them by a 43-40 score. The Rams were not able to catch up in New Orleans after falling behind in what ended up being a 45-35 final score. With their rule changes in the offseason, this the product that the NFL wants — so don’t be surprised if the referees make some calls that benefit both offenses. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (473) and the Los Angeles Rams (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-18-18 |
Vikings v. Bears UNDER 46 |
Top |
20-25 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 27 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (457) and the Chicago Bears (458). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (5-3-1) takes the field again having won four of their last five games with their 24-9 win over Detroit two weeks ago as a 4.5-point favorite. Chicago (6-3) has won three straight games after their 34-22 win over those same Lions last Sunday as a 7.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Chicago has scored 75 points over their last two games — both that explosion in points was built on a foundation of seven forced turnovers. While the Bears have averaged 33.0 PPG over their last three games, they have only averaged 329.0 total YPG over that span. Mitchell Trubisky did complete 23 of 30 passes for 355 yards against a Lions defense missing their best cover cornerback in Darius Slay — but Chicago has played 18 of their last 25 games Under the Total after passing for at least 300 yards in their last game. The Chicago defense has been outstanding as of late — they have held their last three opponents to just 13.7 PPG along with a mere 255.7 total YPG. The Bears surrendered only 76 rushing yards last week to the Lions after giving up just 97 rushing yards the previous week against the Bills. Not only have Chicago then played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game but they have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not giving up at least 100 rushing yards in two straight games. Even better for this unit is that their star linebacker Khalil Mack is healthy again and will play tonight. The Bears host this game at Soldier Field where they have played 6 of their last 9 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range — and they have also played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Minnesota has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after their bye week — and they have also played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games. The Purple People Eater Defense is cranking on all cylinders again with their stud defensive end Everson Griffen back in the mix. Over their last three games, the Vikings are allowing only 18.7 PPG along with just 247.3 total YPG. They should keep it going as they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread win — and they have played 28 of their last 41 games Under the Total after a win by at least two touchdowns. Additionally, Minnesota has played 21 of their last 28 games Under the Total against fellow NFC North opponents — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total as the underdog.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 7 of their last 9 meetings Under the Total — including playing four straight Unders when playing in Chicago. Expect another lower scoring game between two teams whose true strengths lie on the defensive side of the football. 25* NFC North Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (457) and the Chicago Bears (458). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-18-18 |
Titans v. Colts +1.5 |
Top |
10-38 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 57 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Indianapolis Colts (462) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (461). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (4-5) has won three straight games after their 29-26 win over Jacksonville as a 3-point favorite last Sunday. Tennessee (5-4) looks to build off their 34-10 upset win over New England as 6.5-point underdogs last week.
REASONS TO TAKE THE COLTS MINUS THE POINTS: The Titans have pulled off two straight upset wins as their victory over the Patriots was preceded by their 28-14 upset win at Dallas a 4-point underdog back on Monday Night Football. Tennessee looks due for a visit to Letdown City. As it is, they have failed to cover the points spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by at least two touchdowns — and they are a decisive 16-34-2 ATS in their last 52 games after a straight-up win. The Titans did generate 385 yards of offense against the New England defense while averaging 6.31 Yards-Per-Play last week — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 road games after averaging at least 6.0 YPP. But now Tennessee goes back on the road where they are scoring only 17.6 PPG while averaging just 304.0 total YPG. The Titans are just 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 road games against teams that do not have a winning percentage above .500 at home. Tennessee is also only 10-27-3 ATS in their last 40 games against teams with a losing record. This game has a high Total with the number creeping into the 50s — and this is not the type of game that the Titans do well in. Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. Indianapolis is one of the hottest teams in the league right now — and they have been propelled by their success in rushing the football. Over their last four games, they are averaging 162.5 rushing YPG while averaging 5.24 Yards-Per-Carry. Perhaps more importantly, they are averaging 30.5 rushing attempts per game over that span — and that commitment to running the ball pays dividends in ways that too many in the analytics community fail to grasp. Moving the chains helps the Colts defense by keeping them off the field and fresh. A credible ground game also helps quarterback Andrew Luck be more effective in the passing game. Luck has tossed at least three touchdown passes in six straight games — and he has his favorite weapon back in tight end Jack Doyle who had missed the first part of the season with an injury. Indianapolis enjoyed an outstanding draft this year with the tear top pick in guard Quentin Nelson out of Notre Dame really paying dividends. Luck has not been sacked in his last 189 pass attempts. Indianapolis has scored 71 points over their last two games — and they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after scoring at least 25 points in two straight games. Additionally, the Colts have averaged at least 6.27 Yards-Per-Play in each of their last four games — and they have covered the point spread in 34 of their last 51 games after averaging at least 6.0 YPP in their last two games — and they have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after averaging at least 6.0 YPP in their last four games. Indy did allow 415 yards last week to a desperate Jaguars team — but they are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Colts stay at home where they are scoring 30.7 PPG while averaging 400.0 total YPG — and they are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Indianapolis has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games as the favorite. Lastly, the Colts are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games in the month of November.
FINAL TAKE: Indianapolis was swept by the Titans last season — so they surely had this date circled on their calendar as a critical point of their 2018-19 campaign. Of course, Andrew Luck was on the shelf last year. Their star quarterback has made a complete recovery from his array of injuries and finally has the support of a strong offensive line. Luck is playing the best football of his career — he should make the difference in this game. 25* AFC South Game of the Year with the Indianapolis Colts (462) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (461). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-18-18 |
Bengals v. Ravens UNDER 44 |
Top |
21-24 |
Loss |
-105 |
2 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (455) and the Baltimore Ravens (456). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (5-4) has lost three of their last four games after their humiliating 51-14 loss to New Orleans last Sunday as 6-point underdogs. Baltimore (4-5) has lost three straight games with their 23-16 upset loss to Pittsburgh two weeks ago as a 1.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bengals have been a disaster on defense this season. They are allowing 456.5 total YPG which is not only last in the NFL but on pace to be worst mark ever in NFL history. After surrendering 130 points over their last three games, head coach Marvin Lewis fired defensive coordinator Teryl Austin who was a hot head coaching candidate for next season just a couple of months ago. Lewis will take over the defense which should result in the players being more accountable for their actions on and off the field. Injuries have hurt this unit — but futility of this magnitude indicates that the effort has not been there. Lewis will get some help on that side of the field with the firing of Hue Jackson who will serve as an assistant coach taking Austin’s place. While I know Jackson is a self-promoting clown most of the time, he is also someone with a long history of working with Lewis including serving on the defensive coaching staff with the Bengals after he was sacked from the Raiders. Jackson also brings plenty of perspective on the Ravens with them being a divisional rival. I expect immediate improvement on defense. They allowed 509 yards of offense to the Saints last week — but they have then played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Under is also 21-10-1 in Cincinnati’s last 32 games after giving up at least 30 points. The offense is limited still with wide receiver A.J. Green out so expect plenty of Joe Mixon and the Bengals rushing attack to keep the clock moving and protect this defense a bit by keeping them off the darn field. Cincinnati has played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and this includes four straight road games against teams with a losing record at home. The Bengals have also played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total in the month of November. Baltimore will be starting rookie Lamar Jackson at quarterback with Joe Flacco still nursing a hip injury. I have seen nothing to indicate that Jackson is ready for this assignment yet — unless operating ineffective specialized packages now serves as an endorsement. The Ravens will likely struggle with their passing game with Jackson under center still not polished with that part of his game at the professional level. But the Baltimore defense remains stout as they allow only 16.0 PPG along with a mere 275.0 total YPG when playing at home. The Ravens have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a bye week. Furthermore. Baltimore has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total in the month of November — and they have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total against AFC North opponents.
FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of their game played back in the idyllic days of mid-September where the Bengals won by a 34-23 score with that Total set at 43. Things have changed. Expect a lower scoring game this time around. 25* AFC North Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (455) and the Baltimore Ravens (456). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-17-18 |
Arizona v. Washington State -10.5 |
Top |
28-69 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 10:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Washington State Cougars (378) minus the points versus Arizona Wildcats (377). THE SITUATION: Washington State (9-1) has won six straight games with their 31-7 win at Colorado last week as a 5.5-point favorite. Arizona (5-5) has won two straight games with their 42-34 win over that same Buffaloes team two Saturdays ago as a 3-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE COUGARS MINUS THE POINTS: Washington State should continue to build off their momentum. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a victory by at least 20 points. The Cougars have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 29 games after a point spread victory. Washington State returns home where they are a perfect 5-0 this season while outscoring their opponents by +18.0 PPG and out-gaining them by +189.0 net YPG. Led by quarterback Gardner Minshew, the Cougars lead the nation by averaging 392.3 passing YPG. He leads an offense that averages 473.4 total YPG when playing at home. But the improvement of this Washington State in the seventh year of head coach Mike Leach can be attributed to the play of their defense that is holding their visitors to just 16.2 PPG along with 284.4 total YPG. This strong defensive play helps explain why they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games at home. Arizona has covered the point spread in five of their last seven games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven contests. But the Wildcats look due for a big letdown now having to go back on the road where they are just 1-3 this season. Arizona is being outscored by -9.8 net PPG away from home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games on the road. The Wildcats have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 road games after playing their last two games against fellow Pac-12 opponents — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games away from home after a game where at least 60 combined points were scored. And in their last 10 games played in the month of November, Arizona has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of these contests.
FINAL TAKE: Washington State needs to win this game to make their impending showdown with Washington next week being the deciding game as to which team will represent the Pac-12 North Division in the Pac-12 Championship Game. The Cougars are unlikely to be looking ahead to that game as they will be motivated to avenge a 58-37 loss to the Wildcats last season. 25* CFB Pac-12 Game of the Year with the Washington State Cougars (378) minus the points versus Arizona Wildcats (377). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-17-18 |
Iowa State v. Texas UNDER 50 |
Top |
10-24 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Iowa State Cyclones (417) and the Texas Longhorns (418). THE SITUATION: Iowa State (6-3) has won five straight games with their 28-14 win over Baylor last week as a 17-point favorite. Texas (7-3) snapped their two-game losing streak last Saturday with their 41-34 win at Texas Tech as a 2-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Longhorns have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 21 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Quarterback Shane Ehlinger did pass for 312 yards in a winning effort last week — but Texas has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after passing for at least 280 yards in their last contest. The Longhorns has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after gaining at least 40 points in their last game. And while Texas allowed 595 yards of offense to the Longhorns last week, they have then played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total after allowing at least 450 yards in their last contest. Texas returns home to Austin to where they are allowing only 22.0 PPG. The Longhorns have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total at home — and the Under is also 19-6-1 in their last 26 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Texas has also played a decisive 29 of their last 40 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Iowa State has played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. The Cyclones won that game despite gaining only 357 yards of offense in that contest. They did surrender 505 yards to the Bears — but they have then played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. Iowa State allows only 20.4 PPG which is 22nd best in the nation — and that number drops to just an 18.7 PPG make when they are playing on the road. But the Cyclones also only score 23.0 PPG on the road while generating a mere 311.2 total YPG. Iowa State has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total on the road.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams played to a 17-7 score in Ames last season with that Total set at 62. With this year’s battle back in Austin where these two teams have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total, expect another low scoring game. 25* CFB Big 12 Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Iowa State Cyclones (417) and the Texas Longhorns (418). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-17-18 |
West Virginia v. Oklahoma State +7 |
Top |
41-45 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Oklahoma State Cowboys (390) plus the points versus the West Virginia Mountaineers (389). THE SITUATION: Oklahoma State (5-5) has lost two straight games — as well as four of their last five games — with their 48-47 loss at Oklahoma last Saturday as a 21.5-point underdog. West Virginia (8-1) has won three straight games with their 47-10 win over TCU last week as a 13.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS PLUS THE POINTS: Oklahoma State has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss. The Cowboys generated 640 yards in their loss to the Sooners — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. This powerful Oklahoma State offense should keep them in this game against this Mountaineers team with a shaky defense. They return home after playing their last two games on the road where they are scoring 42.3 PPG along with averaging 512.7 total YPG — and this helps them out-gain their guests by +13.1 net PPG along with out-gaining them by +116.7 net YPG. The Cowboys have seen at least 66 combined points scored in each of their last three games — and they are very comfortable getting into shootouts with this Total in the mid-70s. Oklahoma State has covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 home games after playing at least two straight games where at least 60 combined points were scored. And while the Cowboys did not force a turnover last week, they have then covered the point spread in 16 of their last 20 home games after failing to force a turnover in their last game. And in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record, Oklahoma State has covered the point spread in 4 of these contests. West Virginia dominated a reeling Horned Frogs team last week as they out-gained them by +313 net yards by churning out 535 yards of offense while limiting them to just 222 yards. But not only have the Mountaineers failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game — and they are also just 11-27-1 ATS in their last 39 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. And while Dana Holgorsen’s team has covered the point spread in three straight games, his team is likely due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 29 of their last 42 games after covering the point spread in three straight games. Now West Virginia goes back on the road where they are 3-1 this season — but they are being out-gained in yardage in those games because their defense is allowing 445.5 total YPG in those games. Pass defense is the biggest vulnerability of the Mountaineers as they rank 74th in the nation by allowing 233.2 passing YPG — and that mark rises to 269 passing YPG when they are playing on the road. Those are ominous defensive numbers when facing quarterback Taylor Cornelius who is leading an offense that ranks 10th in the FBS by averaging 317.6 passing YPG.
FINAL TAKE: This has been a disappointing season for Oklahoma State who returned twelve starters from a team that finished 10-3 last season. Three of their losses this year have been decided by just one possession total a mere 11 points. But the Cowboys should be motivated to pull off the upset in their last home game of the season. Expect Oklahoma State to keep this one close with a real shot of scoring the straight-up win. 25* CFB Big 12 Underdog of the Year with the Oklahoma State Cowboys (390) plus the points versus the West Virginia Mountaineers (389). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-16-18 |
Memphis v. SMU +9 |
Top |
28-18 |
Loss |
-109 |
8 h 46 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the SMU Mustangs (316) plus the points versus the Memphis Tigers (315). THE SITUATION: SMU (5-5) has won two straight games with their 62-50 win at UConn last Saturday as an 18-point favorite. Memphis (6-4) has also won two straight games with their 47-21 win over Tulsa as a 17-point favorite last week.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MUSTANGS MINUS THE POINTS: For the second straight game, SMU raced out to a big halftime lead with Sonny Dykes team going into the locker room with a 31-10 lead over the Huskies after the first thirty minutes of play. The Mustangs enjoyed a 31-14 halftime lead in the previous week in their 45-31 upset win over Houston the previous week. SMU has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after holding at least a two-touchdown lead at halftime in two straight games. The Mustangs generated 595 yards of offense against the Cougars — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. This offense has improved under Dykes once junior quarterback Ben Hicks got more acclimated to his expectations. The third-year starter lost his spot under center for freshman William Brown but after a strong performance in a losing effort against an undefeated Central Florida team, Hicks has significantly stepped up his game as the starting quarterback. Hicks has averaged 303.3 passing YPG over his last four games with throwing 10 touchdown passes while throwing only two interceptions. SMU has scored 53.5 PPG over their last two games which makes them a very dangerous underdog tonight. They lost at home to a one-loss Cincinnati team by just 6 points three weeks ago. The Mustangs have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games in expected shootouts with the Total set at 70 or higher. SMU did not commit a turnover against UConn last week — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a game where they did not commit a turnover. And while the Mustangs’ defense is giving up plenty of points, they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. Memphis has scored 106 points over their last two games after they defeated East Carolina by a 59-41 score in the week prior to their win over the Golden Hurricanes last week. But the Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after winning their last two games by at least 17 points. Additionally, Memphis has failed to cover the point spread in 32 of their last 44 games after scoring at least 42 points in their last game — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after scoring at least 42 points in two straight games. Furthermore, while the Tigers have rushed for at least 277 yards in two straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when rushing for at least 275 yards in two straight games. But now this team goes on the road again where they have lost three of their four games this season while being outscored by -7.8 PPG and being outgained by -78.0 net YPP. The Memphis defense allows their home hosts to score 42.0 PPG along with 503.5 total YPG. Quarterback Brady White has not fared well when asked to win shootouts. In the Tigers’ four losses, he is completing only 50.4% of his passes while averaging just 202 passing YPG (almost 60 passing YPG below the team’s season average) with only a 4:3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Memphis has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road. This makes the Tigers unreliable road favorites — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 35 of their last 52 games when laying 3.5 to 10 points which includes them failing to cover the point spread in five of their last six games when laying those points.
FINAL TAKE: SMU will be very motivated to pull the upset in this game. Not only are they looking to avenge a 66-45 loss to Memphis last season but a victory tonight keeps them in control of their own destiny to win the American Athletic Conference West Division as they hold the tie-breaker against Houston. 25* CFB American Athletic Conference Underdog of the Year with the SMU Mustangs (316) plus the points versus the Memphis Tigers (315). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-16-18 |
Heat v. Pacers -5 |
Top |
91-99 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Indiana Pacers (704) minus the points versus the Indiana Pacers (703). THE SITUATION: Indiana (8-6) has lost three of their last four games with their 115-103 loss in Houston as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. Miami (6-8) snapped their three-game losing streak on Wednesday with their 120-107 win in Brooklyn as a 2-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PACERS MINUS THE POINTS: Indiana should benefit from their mini-break since their last game — they are an impressive 34-15-2 ATS in their last 51 games when playing with at least three days of rest. This is a well-coached team under Nate McMillan that plays hard for him while exhibiting strong team chemistry. They should rebound with a strong effort tonight as they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after a double-digit loss — and they have also covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after a point spread loss. They return home where they are outscoring their opponents by +5.8 net PPG due to strong efforts on defense as they are holding their visitors to just a 43.1% field goal percentage. Indiana has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 home games after losing three of their last four contests. The Pacers have also covered the point spread in 23 of their last 32 games against Eastern Conference opponents. Miami is a team that was hoping to acquire Jimmy Butler given their deep roster that lacks a superstar. Now that those ambitions have been dampened, head coach Erik Spoelstra may have some difficulties maintaining the morale of this team that has grown stagnant with a crop of role players all feeling deserved for more playing time. The team stepped up in the short term after the Butler issue resolved itself by making 54.1% of their shots against the Nets in what was their best offensive effort of the season. They also held Brooklyn to just a 40.2% shooting mark which was the best defensive performance in their last four games. But defeating the Nets was a nice respite from their disappointing start but this team has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up win — and they are just 1-8-3 ATS in their last 12 games after a double-digit victory. Additionally, the Heat are just 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games are a point spread win. To compound matters for Spoelstra, his team remains undermanned with James Johnson, Dion Waiters, and Dwyane Wade all out for this game. Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games against Eastern Conference opponents.
FINAL TAKE: Indiana pulled away from Miami in the last meeting between these two teams last Friday in a 110-102 victory as a 2.5-point favorite. The Pacers have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 meetings with the Heat. Expect more of the same tonight from this Indiana team that needs a win. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Month with the Indiana Pacers (704) minus the points versus the Indiana Pacers (703). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-15-18 |
Packers v. Seahawks -1 |
Top |
24-27 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (308) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (307). THE SITUATION: Seattle (4-5) has lost two straight games after their 36-31 loss in Los Angeles to the Rams on Sunday as a 10-point underdog. Green Bay (4-4-1) enters this game coming off a 31-12 win over an injury-depleted Miami team as an 11-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS MINUS THE POINTS: Seattle is better then their losing record suggests as all five of their losses were decided by one-scoring possession — and they are outscoring their opponents by +3.1 net PPG. They should rebound with a strong effort tonight as they are a decisive 35-17-2 ATS in their last 54 games are a straight-up loss — and they have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Now this team returns home where they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. The Seahawks game is predicated on running the football as they lead the NFL by averaging 152.2 rushing YPG — and this attack will be bolstered by the return of running back Chris Carson from injury. This team has the luxury of riding the hot-hand with Rashard Penny, Mike Davis and Carson all likely to get carries early in this game. Seattle should find success against this Packers defense that is 21st in the NFL by allowing 4.5 Yards-Per-Carry. Over their last four games, Green Bay is allowing 4.97 YPC while allowing 120.5 rushing YPG. Even without Carson last week, the Seahawks rushed for 273 yards against the Rams — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. Seattle is also 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 games played on a Thursday night under head coach Pete Carroll. Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread win. Now they go on the road for the third time in their last four games where they are 0-4 while being outscored by -9.5 PPG. The defense has let the Packers down on the road by allowing 31 points three times and 29 points in their other game away from home. Green Bay’s defense is a depleted group right now with linebacker Nick Perry, cornerback Kevin King, and strong safety Kontrell Brice all declared out for this game. That is not a good sign for a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road. The Packers have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against fellow NFC opponents — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games in the month of November. And in their last 4 games played on the faster field turf, Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread all 4 times.
FINAL TAKE: This is likely an elimination game from the playoff race for the losing team. Despite their five losses, the Seahawks seem to be heading in the right direction after their roster shakeup in the offseason — while the Packers seem to be hanging on by a thread with Aaron Rodgers just not having enough help around him on both sides of the football. Expect Seattle to wear down this Green Bay team. 25* NFC Game of the Month with the Seattle Seahawks (308) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (307). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-15-18 |
Tulane v. Houston -8 |
Top |
17-48 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 40 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Houston Cougars (312) minus the points versus the Tulane Green Wave (311). THE SITUATION: Houston (7-3) has lost two straight games after suffering their second-straight upset loss in a row with their 59-49 loss to Temple on Saturday as a 3.5-point favorite. Tulane (5-5) has won three straight games with their 24-18 win over East Carolina on Saturday as a 10.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE COUGARS MINUS THE POINTS: Houston may have been suffering from the hangover of their 45-31 upset loss at SMU the previous week despite being a two-touchdown favorite in that game. The Cougars are still alive to reach the American Athletic Conference championship game but they need to win their remaining two regular-season games while then hoping SMU loses again. This is a team that has also been riddled with injuries on both sides of the ball with the biggest loss being their star defensive tackle Ed Oliver who will likely not take the field tonight with his knee injury. But Houston still has their starting quarterback D’Eriq King who has led an offense that ranks 2nd in the nation by averaging 546.1 total YPG along with scoring 47.8 PPG which is the 4th most in the FBS. The Cougars generated 527 yards of offense in their loss to the Owls last week despite having possession of the football for just 25:37 minutes of that game — and this team’s offense should overwhelm the Green Wave tonight. Houston has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after an upset loss at home to a conference rival despite being the favorite. The Cougars have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. Being at home on a short week should help after playing three of their last four games on the road. Houston is 4-1 at home with an average winning margin of +21.6 net PPG while outgaining the visitors by +121.7 net YPG due to their offense that scores 52.4 PPG at home while averaging 581.6 total YPG in those games. The Cougars have struggled on defense after allowing 104 combined points in their last two games — but they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games after allowing at least 37 points in two straight games. Tulane is scoring only 23.2 PPG along with averaging just 342.0 total YPG when playing away from home. With their senior dual-threat quarterback Jonathan Banks still questionable with an injury, head coach Willie Fritz will likely have to depend on LSU graduate transfer Justin McMillan who led them to victory last week. McMillan can operate the run-first spread offense that Fritz prefers but accuracy in the passing game is an issue as he has completed only 46% of his 87 pass attempts this season. The Green Wave averaged 6.94 Yards-Per-Play against the suspect Pirates defense last week but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after averaging at least 6.25 YPP in their last game. Tulane has only committed one turnover in three straight games as well — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after not turning the ball over in two straight games — and this includes failing to cover the point spread in those last four situations. This is the Green Wave’s third game on the road in their last four contests which is a very tough assignment when playing on a short week. Tulane has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games against teams with a winning record at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 trips to Houston to face the Cougars.
FINAL TAKE: Houston should take out their frustrations over the last two weeks with a big win over a Tulane team being outscored by -6.6 PPG on the road while being outgained by more than 100 yards in those road contests. 25* CFB Thursday Night ESPN Game of the Year with the Houston Cougars (312) minus the points versus the Tulane Green Wave (311). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-14-18 |
Blazers v. Lakers UNDER 223 |
Top |
117-126 |
Loss |
-105 |
9 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 10:35 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Portland Trail Blazers (721) and the Los Angeles Lakers (722). THE SITUATION: Portland (10-3) has won four straight games with their 100-94 win over Boston on Sunday as a 4-point favorite. Los Angeles (7-6) has won three straight games as well as five of their last six games with their 107-106 victory over Atlanta on Sunday as an 11-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Lakers improved play can be tied to improved play on the defensive end of the court. Los Angeles has not allowed their last nine opponents to shoot better than 50% from the field while holding their last five opponents to just a 43.1% field goal percentage. The Lakers have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss — and the Under is also 5-0-1 in their last 6 games after a straight-up win. Los Angeles has also played 6 straight games Under the Total after scoring at least 100 points in their last game — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a point spread win. The Lakers stay at home where they have played 4 straight games Under the Total on their home court — and they have also seen the Under go 5-0-1 in their last 6 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. LA has also played 4 straight games Under the Total against Western Conference opponents while the Trail Blazers have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against Western Conference foes. Portland is also playing hard on the defensive end of the court as they have held their last five opponents to just a 42.2% field goal percentage — and they are holding their home hosts to just a 42.1% shooting percentage. The Trail Blazers have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Portland has also played 5 straight games Under the Total. This team has also played 9 of their last 13 road games Under the Total against a team with a winning record — and they have also played 13 of their last 17 road games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range.
FINAL TAKE: This is already the third meeting between these two teams after the Lakers pulled the upset over the Trail Blazers back on November 3rd by a 114-110 score as a 3.5-point favorite that finished well below the 236 point total. This third clash probably favors the respective defenses who can continue to fine-tune their defensive approaches against a familiar opponent. As it is, these two teams have played 7 straight games Under the Total when playing in LA. 25* NBA Wednesday ESPN Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Portland Trail Blazers (721) and the Los Angeles Lakers (722). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-14-18 |
Buffalo v. Ohio -2 |
Top |
17-52 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 55 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Ohio Bobcats (304) minus the points versus the Buffalo Bulls (303). THE SITUATION: Ohio (6-4) saw their three-game winning streak snapped last Wednesday in their 30-28 upset loss at Miami (OH) despite being a 4.5-point favorite. Buffalo (9-1) has won five straight games with their 48-14 win over Kent State last Tuesday as a 17-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BOBCATS MINUS THE POINTS: Ohio remains statistically alive to win the MAC East Division but their loss to the RedHawks was devastating to their realistic chances. The Bobcats need to win out their last two games with the Bulls needing to then lose next week to a lowly Bowling Green team to keep their chances alive of reaching the MAC Championship Game. But Frank Solich’s team can still play the role of the spoiler tonight as they look to redeem themselves from their upset loss to their arch rival in Miami (OH). As it is, Ohio has rebounded to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss by 6 points or less. The Bobcats return home where they are a perfect 4-0 while outscoring their visitors by +23.7 net PPG and outgaining these opponents by +146.5 net YPG. Ohio has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games on their home field. Led by quarterback Nathan Rourke, the Bobcats are scoring 39.3 PPG which is 12th best in the nation. Expected higher scoring games plays into this teams hands as the Bobcats have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games with the Total set at 63 or higher. Ohio has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games against teams with a winning record. Buffalo is in the midst of perhaps their best season in school history — but with their two-game lead in the MAC East Division, they can afford to lose this game and still reach win this title. This team returned fourteen starters from a group that finished 6-6 last year but was snubbed in getting an opportunity to play in a bowl game. This will be a very tough test for this program not used to pressure situations — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in Athens to face this Ohio team. The Bulls have also failed to cover the point spread in 31 of their last 47 road games after playing their previous three games against MAC competitors. Buffalo raced out to a 34-0 lead last week against the Golden Flashes — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after scoring at least 24 points in the first half of their last game. They also outrushed Kent State by +258 net yards — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 gamed after outrushing their last opponent by at least 150 yards. Lastly, while the Bulls have covered the point spread in five straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after covering the point spread in five straight games — so this is a team that might be primed for a letdown.
FINAL TAKE: Any chance that Ohio might be flat in this game is likely mitigated by Solich’s ability to invoke the memories of last year’s encounter between these two teams. The Bobcats fell behind by a 24-7 score in the first quarter on the road in that game but called to tied that game before falling behind again by 31-24 score. Rourke rallied his team for one final drive to tie the game — but he was intercepted in the end zone with just 1:20 minutes left in the 4th quarter to conclude that upset loss despite them being 6.5-point favorites. Look for Ohio to avenge that loss tonight against a Buffalo team that can still reach the MAC Championship Game with a victory next week. 25* CFB Mid-American Conference Game of the Year with the Ohio Bobcats (304) minus the points versus the Buffalo Bulls (303). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-13-18 |
Rockets v. Nuggets -4 |
Top |
109-99 |
Loss |
-115 |
6 h 52 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Denver Nuggets (504) minus the points versus the Houston Rockets (503). THE SITUATION: Denver (9-4) has lost three straight games after their 121-114 loss to Milwaukee on Sunday as a 3.5-point favorite. Houston (5-7) looks to build off their 115-103 win over Indiana as a 2.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE NUGGETS MINUS THE POINTS: Denver has suffered three straight upset losses in a three-game losing streak that started with a loss at Memphis by an 89-87 score as a 3-point favorite before losing at home to Brooklyn by a 112-110 score as a 7.5-point favorite. The Nuggets started the season winning nine of their first ten games but now face adversity for the first time this season. The problems are not difficult to resolve — slow starts and inability to finish down the stretch has plagued this team in these losses. Denver also needs to tighten things up on defense after allowing the Bucks to make 57.1% of their shots on Sunday which was their worst defensive effort of the season. The Nuggets should play better tonight — they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after enduring three straight upset losses. Additionally, Denver has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after losing three straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after failing to cover the point spread in three straight games. And in their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road, the Nuggets have covered the point spread 4 times. Houston raced out to a 76-54 lead at halftime in their game against the Pacers on Sunday but they are likely to suffer a letdown tonight. The Rockets made 48.6% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last five games. But Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after enjoying at least 20 points at halftime of their last game — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by at least 10 points. Consistency has been an issue for this team so far this season as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win. This is a team that has also taken a few steps back on the defensive end of the court — they really miss the defensive efforts of Trevor Ariza and Luc Mbah a Moute who both departed the team in the offseason as free agents. Furthermore, the bench is not as strong as last year’s 65 win team —and injuries have limited their second unit even more. The Rockets have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. And in their last 6 games against Western Conference opponents, Houston has failed to cover the point spread all 6 games.
FINAL TAKE: Denver should be very motivated to put an end to their losing streak — and it will be even sweeter to do so against this Rockets team that most pundits considered to be the second best team in the Western Conference. 25* NBA Western Conference Game of the Month with the Denver Nuggets (504) minus the points versus the Houston Rockets (503). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-13-18 |
Lightning -130 v. Sabres |
Top |
1-2 |
Loss |
-130 |
3 h 41 m |
Show
|
At 7:35 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Tampa Bay Lightning (9) versus the Buffalo Sabres (10). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (12-4-1) saw their four-game winning streak snapped on Saturday with their 6-4 loss to Ottawa. Buffalo (9-6-2) has won two straight games as well as three of their last four contests with their 4-3 win over Vancouver on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE LIGHTING WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Tampa Bay has rebounded to win 27 of their last 34 games after a loss. The Lightning have also won 5 straight games after allowing at least five goals in their last game. This team begins a four-game road trip with tough visits to Pittsburgh, Philadelphia and Nashville following this opening contest — so the Lightning will want to get a win to put in their pocket before those challenges. Tampa Bay has is 5-2 on the road this season — and they have won 6 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home ice. The Lightning have also won 25 of their last 32 games when playing with two days of rest. Backup goalie Louis Dominique will get the start between the pipes with head coach John Cooper giving his top goalie, Andrei Vasilevskiy, the night off. Dominique does little to inspire confidence — but Tampa Bay should still outscore the Sabres. The Lightning have scored at least four goals in five straight games — and they have won 10 of their last 11 road games after scoring at least three goals in four straight games. Buffalo has lost a decisive 40 of their last 58 games after a victory — and they have also lost 8 straight games after winning three of their last four games. This young Sabres team is improving — but they are not quite ready to stay competitive with the elite teams in the league who are playing at full attention (like Tampa Bay should be tonight). Buffalo has lost 19 of their last 27 home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. The Sabres will be relying on Carter Hutton in goal tonight — but he has been mediocre at best this year with a 2.78 Goals-Against-Average along with a .912 save percentage this season. Buffalo has lost 4 straight games when playing with two days of rest.
FINAL TAKE: Dominique’s playing for Vasilevskiy may scare some bettors off — but goaltending often gets overvalued relative to the play of a team’s blue line. Tampa Bay should overwhelm the Sabres tonight. 25* NHL Atlantic Division Game of the Month with the money-line on the Tampa Bay Lightning (9) versus the Buffalo Sabres (10). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-12-18 |
Giants v. 49ers UNDER 46 |
Top |
27-23 |
Loss |
-115 |
5 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (275) and the San Francisco 49ers (276). THE SITUATION: New York (1-7) has lost seven straight games after their 20-13 loss at home to Washington two Sundays ago as a 1-point underdog. San Francisco (2-7) enters this game coming off their 34-3 upset win against Oakland back on November 1st as a 1.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The 49ers got a surprising performance from Nick Mullens at quarterback who completed 16 of 22 passes for 262 yards with three touchdown passes and no interceptions. Look for Mullens to regress a bit in this contest with the Giants having eleven days to study that tape in preparation for this game. As it is, San Francisco has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a game where at least 30 points were scored. The 49ers’ defense did a great job by limiting the Raiders’ offense to just 242 yards of offense. San Francisco has an underrated defense that 12th in the NFL by allowing only 351.7 total YPG — and that number drops to just 305.0 total YPG when they are playing at home. The 49ers have allowed only two field goals in the first-half in their last two games — and they have played 27 of their last 39 home games Under the Total after not allowing more than 3 points in the first-half of two straight games. Additionally, San Francisco has played 15 of their last 20 games Under the Total in the month of November. New York has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have also played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Furthermore, the Giants have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after losing four or five of their last six games. New York allowed 360 yards of offense to the Redskins — but they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Giants managed only 303 yards of offense behind the declining Eli Manning at quarterback. His lack of mobility combines with a decrepit offensive line produces a sluggish offense that ranks 27th in the NFL by scoring just 18.8 PPG. New York has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. The Giants go back on the road where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total. Lastly, New York has played 21 of their last 30 games Under the Total — and they have also played twelve of their last eighteen games Under the Total on the road as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: This game shapes up to see plenty of stalled drives where the offenses will settle for field goals. Expect a lower scoring game. 25* NFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (275) and the San Francisco 49ers (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-12-18 |
Mavs v. Bulls UNDER 216 |
Top |
103-98 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 2 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Mavericks (707) and the Chicago Bulls (708). THE SITUATION: Dallas (4-8) has won of their last three games with their 111-96 win against Oklahoma City on Saturday as a 1.5-point favorite. Chicago (4-9) has won two of their last three games as well with their 99-98 win over Cleveland as a 4.5-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Mavericks enjoyed their best offensive performance of the season in their win over the Thunder as they shot 55.8% of their shots from the floor. Dallas also limited OKC to just a 39.2% shooting percentage — and that defensive effort should travel on the road tonight. The Mavs have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. They will be a short one or two of their key contributors tonight with Wesley Matthews doubtful with a hamstring injury while rookie Luka Doncic is questionable with a knee. Dallas goes on the road where they have played 17 of their last 26 road games Under the Total with the number in the 210 to 219.5 point range. The Mavericks have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40%. Chicago is also undermanned with Bobby Portis, Kris Dunn and Lauri Markkanen all out with injuries. But this team is still playing hard on the defensive end of the court. They limited the Cavaliers to just a 42.9% shooting percentage on Saturday — and that is exactly the same opponent’s field goal percentage that their last five opponents have averaged. The Bulls have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They stay at home where they have played 4 straight games Under the Total — and they have also played 8 of their last 11 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams played back on October 22nd with the Mavericks winning that game in Dallas by a 115-109 score. That game fell well below the 229 point total — expect this game to also finish below the number given the injuries both teams have now experienced. 25* NBA Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Mavericks (707) and the Chicago Bulls (708). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-11-18 |
Cowboys v. Eagles OVER 43.5 |
Top |
27-20 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (273) and the Philadelphia Eagles (274). THE SITUATION: Dallas (3-5) has lost two straight games after their 28-14 upset loss to Tennessee on Monday where they were laying -4.5-points. Philadelphia (4-4) returns to the field from their bye week after their 24-18 win in Jacksonville as a 3.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Eagles have won and covered the point spread in two of their last three games — and they have then played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after winning two of their last three games while also playing 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after covering the point spread in two of their last three contests. Philly went into their bye week having suffered a -1 net turnover margin in two straight games — and they have played 5 straight games Over the Total after losing the turnover battle in at least two straight games. Playing just their second game of the season against a divisional rival along with having acquired wide receiver Golden Tate at the trade deadline, the reigning Super Bowl champions are feeling pretty good about themselves. Even without Tate, this offense has begun to hum as quarterback Carson Wentz gets more comfortable under center after tearing his ACL last season. The Eagles averaged 7.28 Yards-Per-Play against the Jaguars in their last game — and they have then played 4 straight games Over the Total after averaging 6.5 YPP in their last game. Philadelphia has played 26 of their last 37 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have also played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total against fellow NFC East rivals. Dallas was expected to see an immediate uptick in their offensive production with the acquisition of wide receiver Amari Cooper but they managed only 297 yards of offense on Monday as the team struggled with keeping their offensive identity with their new offensive weapon. I thought the expectations for the Cowboys offense was overestimated before their game with the Titans — and I suspect it is not being underestimated moving forward. Expect a significant improvement on the offensive side of the ball tonight. Dallas has played 11 of their last 13 games Over the Total after an upset loss by at least two touchdowns as a home favorite. The loss to Tennessee followed up an upset loss to Washington the previous week — and the Cowboys have played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total after suffering two straight upset losses. Dallas is going to have to generate their share of points in this game given the injuries they are dealing with on defense. The Cowboys are down two of their players in their defensive line rotation with David Irving and Randy Gregory still out — their absence on Monday played a role in Marcus Mariota having his good game at quarterback. Dallas will also be without their best defensive player in linebacker Sean Lee who is dealing with a hamstring injury. The Cowboys need to get running back Ezekiel Elliot more involved in their offense after they have rushed for just 72 and 73 yards in their last two games after rushing for over 200 yards in their previous game against the Jaguars where they won while scoring 40 points. Dallas has played 8 of their last 13 games Over the Total after failing to rush for more than 75 yards in two straight games. And in their last 18 road games as an underdog getting 7.5 to 14 points, the Cowboys have played 11 of these games Over the Total.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played three straight Unders with their last contest being that New Year’s Eve game last year where Dallas shutout the Eagles with what looked to be a hapless Nick Folk at quarterback. With Dallas’ season in the balance, expect this to be a high scoring game. 25* NFC East Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (273) and the Philadelphia Eagles (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-11-18 |
Lions +7 v. Bears |
Top |
22-34 |
Loss |
-105 |
4 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Detroit Lions (265) plus the points versus the Chicago Bears (266). THE SITUATION: Detroit (3-5) has lost two straight games after their 24-9 loss in Minnesota last week as a 4.5-point underdog. Chicago (5-3) has won two games in a row after their 41-9 blowout win in Buffalo as a 10.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE LIONS PLUS THE POINTS: Detroit will be playing with desperation with that bad loss in Minnesota following up a 28-14 loss at home to Seattle. The entire organization is under scrutiny from quarterback Matthew Stafford failing to throw a touchdown pass last week for the first time all season to the offensive line giving up a whopping ten sacks to the Vikings to Matt Patricia seemingly over his head as a rookie head coach to the team appearing to have punted on the season after trading away wide receiver Golden Tate. Expect this adversity to have rallied this team together — they should come out swinging in this game. As it is, the Lions have bounced back to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss by at least 14 points — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after losing two straight games by at least two touchdowns. Detroit has also covered the point spread in 22 of their last 29 games on the road after a loss by at least two touchdowns. The trade of Tate should create more opportunities for their promising young wide receiver Kenny Golladay so I am not too worried about their offense. While the Lions averaged just 3.48 Yards-Per-Play against the Vikings defense, they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 32 games after failing to average more than 4.0 YPP in their last game. Furthermore, Detroit has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. The Lions have been reliable in situations like this as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Detroit is also 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games in the month of November — and they are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games against divisional rivals. Chicago is riding high with two straight wins by at least two touchdowns as they defeated the Jets by a 24-10 score before dispatching of a Nathan Peterman-led Bills team last week. Yet the Bears were actually outgained by a 264-190 yardage margin to Buffalo while managing a mere 11 first downs. Two defensive touchdowns and a +3 net turnover margin in that game masked a pretty mediocre performance by Mitchell Trubisky who passed for just 135 yards. My longer-term concern with this team is that head coach Matt Nagy is asking his young quarterback to do too much in lieu of establishing their ground game behind Jordan Howard. Expect a letdown in this game especially with the significant uptick in competition against a divisional opponent. Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread cover as a double-digit favorite — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after covering the point spread in two straight games when laying the points as the favorite. Additionally, not only have the Bears failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after scoring at least 28 points but they have also failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Chicago has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after enjoying a +2 or better net turnover margin. Moving forward, the Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range.
FINAL TAKE: Chicago may win this game with this one being played at Soldier Field — but asking them to cover a point spread around a touchdown against an angry and desperate division rival (who remains alive in the NFC North playoff race) is too much to ask. Expect a close game that the Lions have a chance to steal. 25* NFC North Underdog of the Year with the Detroit Lions (265) plus the points versus the Chicago Bears (266). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-10-18 |
Colorado State +14 v. Nevada |
Top |
10-49 |
Loss |
-105 |
33 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 10:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Colorado State Rams (171) plus the points versus the Nevada Wolf Pack (172). THE SITUATION: Colorado State (3-6) has lost two games in a row after their 34-21 loss to Wyoming back on October 26th as a +3.5-point underdog. Nevada (5-4) pulled off their second-straight upset win with their 28-24 win at home over San Diego State two Saturdays ago as a +2-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS PLUS THE POINTS: The Wolf Pack upset the Aztecs just a week after they crushed Hawai’i on the road by a 40-22 score as a small +1.5-point underdog. Now Nevada finds themselves as two-touchdown favorites — but an emotional letdown for this team is likely. As it is, the Wolfpack have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win at home. Furthermore, Nevada has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a narrow win by 6 points or less. The Wolfpack were outgained by San Diego State by a decisive -159 net yards but rallied from a 24-15 halftime deficit by enjoying a +2 net turnover margin. Nevada has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a game where they enjoyed a +2 or better net turnover margin. The Wolf Pack have won three of their games this season by one scoring possession — and they are actually being outgained at home by -17.6 net YPG. Defense is an issue for this team as they are allowing 31.2 PPG due to a weak pass defense that ranks 108th in the nation by allowing 264.2 passing YPG. Colorado State should bounce-back from their loss at home to the Cowboys as they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a double-digit loss at home. The Rams went into the locker room at halftime trailing by just a 3-0 score — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than a field in the first-half of their last game. Colorado State was burdened by a -3 net turnover margin in their loss to Wyoming — but they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after enduring a -3 or worse net turnover margin in their last game. Head coach Mike Bobo needed the bye week at this point of the season with his team still fighting to become bowl eligible. The Rams’ defense shifted to a 4-3 formation in the offseason so an extra week of practice should help on that side of the football. Bobo also got an extra week of work with sophomore quarterback Collin Hill who has started the last two games after a long recovery from what has been two torn ACL injuries that have derailed him since being initially tapped to be the starting quarterback for this team in the fall of 2017. Despite this team’s struggles this season, Bobo has still overseen an explosive passing attack that ranks 15th in the nation by averaging 310.3 passing YPG. This potent passing game should keep the Rams competitive in this game — they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Colorado State has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 expected higher-scoring games on the road where the Total is set at least at 63. And in their last 16 games played in the month of November under Bobo’s leadership, the Rams have covered the point spread 11 times.
FINAL TAKE: Colorado State has underachieved this season while Nevada has overachieved a bit. As both teams meet for their tenth game of the season coming off a bye week, expect the Rams to keep his game closer than expected. 25* CFB Mountain Western Conference Underdog of the Year with the Colorado State Rams (171) plus the points versus the Nevada Wolf Pack (172). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-10-18 |
Maryland v. Indiana OVER 54.5 |
Top |
32-34 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Maryland Terrapins (145) and the Indiana Hoosiers (146). THE SITUATION: Maryland (5-4) has lost two of their last three games with their 24-3 loss to Michigan State last week as a 3-point underdog. Indiana (4-5) has lost four games in a row with their 38-31 upset loss at Minnesota as a 2.5-point favorite two weeks ago.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: It has been feast or famine for the Terrapins on offense this season as they have scored 63 points against Illinois, 42 points against Minnesota and 34 points against Rutgers but managed only a field goal overall against Iowa and the Spartans. Perhaps the three touchdowns that Maryland scored against the mighty Michigan defense is the best line on their offensive resume. The Terrapins caught an angry Sparty last week that was embarrassed by the Wolverines in East Lansing the previous week. But Maryland has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a double-digit loss at home — and they have played 13 of their last 17 games Over the Total after a loss by at least 20 points. The Terrapins managed only 100 yards of offense against Michigan State — but they have then played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after failing to generate at least 275 yards in their last contest and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total after failing to score more than 20 points in their last contest. Now Maryland goes back on the road where they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total against teams with a losing record at home. And in their last 10 road games as an underdog getting no more than a field goal, the Terrapins have played 8 of these games Over the Total. Indiana has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a bye week. The Hoosiers surrendered 308 passing yards in that game — and the Over is 9-3-1 in their last 13 games after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last game. Indiana has scored 59 points over their last two games after they put up 28 points against Penn State. The Hoosiers have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 5 straight home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Both these teams are fighting to become bowl eligible — and this level of desperation between mid-level teams can create high-scoring contests. Maryland upset Indiana last year by a 42-39 score as a +6.5-point underdog last season with the Total set in the 53.5 range. Expect another high-scoring affair. 25* CFB Big Ten Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Maryland Terrapins (145) and the Indiana Hoosiers (146). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-10-18 |
Burnley v. Leicester -1 |
Top |
0-0 |
Loss |
-111 |
1 h 46 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Leicester City (2505) minus the goal-line versus Burnley (2504). Leicester City (5-1-5) looks to build off their 1-0 win at Cardiff last Saturday. Burnley (2-2-7) looks to rebound from a 4-2 loss at West Ham last week.
REASONS TO TAKE LEICESTER CITY MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: This is the Foxes first return home since the tragic death of their owner Vicar Srivaddhanaprabha who died with four others in a helicopter crash immediately following their 1-1 draw with West Ham at home two weeks ago. This will be a very emotional day for the Leicester City team and the fans especially since he was a popular owner who played a critical role in their surprising English Premier League championship run in 2015-16. I expect this to be one of the best efforts for the Foxes all season. Leicester City has fallen back from the traditional top-six teams in the EPL but they remain one of the proverbial “best of the rest.” Against the remaining fourteen sides this season, the Foxes are 5-2-1 with a +5 goal differential. At home against the non-power six, Leicester City is 2-1-1 with a +3 goal differential with their lone loss being against a solid Everton team. The Foxes should feast on a Burnley team that has lost three straight matches while surrendering at least four goals in all four contests. The Clarets finished in 7th place last year — but that might have been the kiss of death for this year’s team since qualifying for the Europa League this season took a toll on manager Sean Dacha’s bunch. It is not uncommon for the extra demands of the Europa League in the fall to wear down teams that lack the depth to rotate players during the week. Roster depth is certainly one of the concerns for the Clarets. Another concern is goal scoring as this team has found the back of the net only 12 times this season. On the road, Burnley is just 1-1-4 where they have scored only six times and hold a rough -9 net goal differential. The Clarets rank 17th in the EPL in shots attempted when playing on the road — and they fall to second-to-last of all EPL teams with only 2.5 shots per game on target. But the biggest issue for this team has been their defense which has collapsed this season after they ranked 6th last year in fewest goals allowed. The 15 goals allowed on the road is the second-worst mark in the EPL — and they have conceded the most shots attempts, the most shot attempts within the penalty box, and the most Big Chances on the road of all twenty EPL squads.
FINAL TAKE: Hosting the Clarets and their leaky defense may be just what the doctor ordered for this emotional Leicester City side that will be playing with something to prove for their fallen owner. 25* EPL NBC Sports Network Match of the Month with the Leicester City (2505) minus the goal-line versus Burnley (2504). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-09-18 |
Fresno State -2.5 v. Boise State |
Top |
17-24 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 49 m |
Show
|
At 10:15 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Fresno State Bulldogs (113) minus the points versus the Boise State Broncos (114). THE SITUATION: Fresno State (8-1) has won seven straight games with their 48-3 win at UNLV last Saturday as a 27-point favorite. Boise State (7-2) has won four in a row with their 21-16 win over BYU last Saturday in a game where they were laying -11.5 points.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS MINUS THE POINTS: Fresno State should build off the momentum of their big win last week as they are 13-2-1 ATS in their last 16 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a victory by at least 20 points. The Bulldogs generated 466 yards in that contest — and they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 26 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. Head coach Jeff Tedford’s stint in the Canadian Football League (after a brief turn in the NFL as an offensive consultant to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers) seems to have been a boon for his appreciation of the nuances of college football. The long-time Cal coach was always considered an offensive guru but he has done wonders with quarterback Marcus Maryion. The Oregon State transfer thrived under Tedford’s guidance last season as he completed 62.1% of his passes for 2726 passing yards while throwing 14 touchdown passes to just 5 interceptions. Maryion has been even better this season as he is completing 70.9% of his passes for 2416 passing yards with 20 TD passes and just 3 interceptions. He leads an offense that is 11th in the nation by scoring 40.4 PPG. Maryion should have success against a suspect Broncos pass defense that ranks 74th in the nation by allowing 234.4 passing YPG. But what has made this Fresno State program different than Tedford’s Cal teams — and why this group made an immediate turnaround from a 1-11 record in 2016 — is the outstanding play on defense. The Bulldogs returned seven starters from last year’s group that allowed only 17.9 PPG and just 320.6 total YPG which ranked 10th and 15th best in the nation. The 2017 defense made startling improvements under defensive coordinator Orlando Steinauer who Tedford brought down from the Hamilton Tiger-Cats of the CFL while proving once again the impact of good coaching. While Steinauer returned to the CFL this season, the defense has not missed a beat under last year’s linebacker coach in Bert Watts who took over coordinating the defense while maintaining Steinauer's aggressive tendencies. Fresno State is allowing only 12.3 PPG which is tied for 2nd in the nation while ranking 14th in the FBS while limiting their opponents to just 307.0 total YPG. Defense travels — and the Bulldogs 13-2-1 ATS in their last 16 games on the road which includes them covering then point spread in six of their last seven road games against teams with a winning record at home. Fresno State is outscoring their home hosts by +22.2 PPG due to their defense that is allowing only 9.6 PPG. Furthermore, the Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 4 straight games in the month of November — and they have covered 4 straight games played on a Friday night. Boise State is just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. The Broncos are led by four-year senior starting quarterback Brett Rypien who leads an offense that is 10th in the nation by averaging 319.8 passing YPG. But Rypien will face his biggest challenge of the season facing this Bulldogs’ pass defense that is 16th in the nation by allowing only 178.2 passing YPG while limiting opposing quarterbacks to completing just 48.1% of their passes and only 8 TD passes. Boise State has won four in a row after a loss at home by a 19-13 score to a San Diego State defense that has a similarly strong defense as the Bulldogs but lacks their explosiveness on offense. The Broncos have the allure of their blue field but that has not translated into a home-field advantage — or perhaps bettors have overvalued this intangible. Boise State has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games at home. And in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record, the Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of these games.
FINAL TAKE: This is the third meeting between these two teams in less than a twelve-month period after these two teams split their two meetings last year. Fresno State certainly had this date circled since this is their first opportunity to avenge their 17-14 loss to Boise State that the Broncos’ hosted in the Mountain West Conference championship game last December 2nd. Look for the Bulldogs to avenge that loss with what appears to be an even better team than last year’s group in Tedford’s first season with the program. 25* CFB Friday ESPN2 Game of the Year with the Fresno State Bulldogs (113) minus the points versus the Boise State Broncos (114). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-09-18 |
Pacers -1.5 v. Heat |
Top |
110-102 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Indiana Pacers (507) minus the point(s) versus the Miami Heat (508). THE SITUATION: Indiana (7-5) looks to bounce-back from their 100-94 upset loss at home to Philadelphia on Wednesday as a 2.5-point favorite. Miami (5-5) has won two straight games with their 95-88 win over San Antonio as a 1-point favorite on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PACERS MINUS THE POINTS: Indiana has suffered two straight upset losses as their loss to the 76ers came on the heels of a 4-point loss at home as a 1-point favorite to the Rockets on Monday. Head coach Nate McMillan’s team should bounce-back with a strong effort as they have rebounded to cover the point spread in a decisive 40 of their last 59 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after a point-spread setback. The Pacers made only 39.4% of their shots in what was their worst shooting effort of the season. The team is once-again getting outstanding production from their breakout star Victor Oladipo who led them to the playoffs last season. But when Oladipo gets help on offense, this becomes a very difficult team to beat. Indiana has won seven of their eight games this season when they score at least 100 points — and the Heat are allowing 110.1 PPG. The Pacers entered their game with the Sixers scoring at a higher Points-Per-Possession rate with a better Offensive Net Rating than both Philly and the Celtics. They also force more turnovers and generate more points off turnovers than those two Eastern Conference rivals. This is an underrated team that has a deep bench that helps them play consistently night-in and night-out while not being as vulnerable to the whims of 3-point shooting. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after losing their last two games by 6 points or less — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after allowing at least 100 points in their last game. This consistency translates into good play on the road as they have won four of their six games away from home this season while shooting 49.9% from the field in those games. The Pacers have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Indiana has also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games against fellow Eastern Conference opponents. Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they are just 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games after a point spread win. This is a middling team with an expensive roster that lacks a true superstar — so this group seems to be in a holding pattern waiting to see if they can trade for Jimmy Butler. Goran Dragic is their lone player who can create his own shot — but he is out for tonight with a knee injury. He joins Dion Waiters and James Johnson who are also out with injuries — and Dwyane Wade is not available tonight as he is taking another night off for “personal” reasons. The Heat benefitted in that game with the Spurs from San Antonio only making 33% of their shots which was the lowest opponent’s field goal percentage for them all season. But Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 23 home games as an underdog getting 6 points or less — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against Eastern Conference opponents.
FINAL TAKE: Expect this undermanned Heat team to struggle against what should be a very motivated Pacers group looking to avoid their third straight upset loss. 25* NBA Road Warrior of the Month with the Indiana Pacers (507) minus the point(s) versus the Miami Heat (508). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-08-18 |
Panthers v. Steelers OVER 50.5 |
Top |
21-52 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Carolina Panthers (107) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (108). THE SITUATION: Carolina (6-2) has won three straight games with their 42-28 win over Tampa Bay on Sunday as a 6-point favorite. Pittsburgh (5-2-1) has won four in a row with their 23-16 upset win at Baltimore last Sunday as a +1.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Steelers have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 straight games at home Over the Total after winning five or six of their last seven games. Pittsburgh generated 395 yards in that game against the Ravens — and they have played 5 straight games Over the Total after generating at least 350 yards in their last game. The Steelers are 4th in the NFL by averaging 415.2 total YPG — and they are averaging 432.2 total YPG over their last three games. They return home where they are scoring 31.2 PPG — and their four home games are averaging 56.9 combined points scored. Ben Roethlisberger should have a big game against the suspect Panthers’ secondary that his allowing 250.9 passing YPG which ranks 19th in the NFL. Roethlisberger leads an offense that is averaging 313.6 passing YPG — and over his last sixteen starts, Big Ben is averaging 326.2 passing YPG while tossing 39 TD passes. He should have plenty of time to attack the Carolina defense. The Steelers’ offensive line is helping their QB get hit only 8.7% of their passing attempts which is tops in the NFL — and this offense ranks 2nd in the league by seeing their QB get sacked in only 3.1% of their passing attempts. The Panthers are bottom-ten in the league with their 21 team sacks. Pittsburgh has allowed 5 of their last 6 home games Over the Total. The Steelers’ strong run defense will likely force Carolina into relying on the arm of Cam Newton. Pittsburgh has not allowed more than 74 rushing yards in each of their last three games. The Steelers have played 28 of their last 36 home games Over the Total after not allowing more than 75 rushing yards in two straight games — and they have played 26 of their last 38 games Over the Total after holding their last three opponents to 75 or fewer rushing yards in at least three straight games. Carolina has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. The Panthers have also played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total after winning three of their last four games. Additionally, Carolina has played 17 of their last 21 games Over the Total after a game where at least 60 combined points were scored. The Panthers scored five touchdowns in the first half against the Buccaneers before going into cruise control and finishing that game with 407 total yards of offense. Carolina has played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after scoring at least 30 points — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after generating at least 400 yards in their last contest. Carolina is scoring 33.0 PPG over their last three games.
FINAL TAKE: This shapes up to be a high-scoring game. Newton only attempted 25 passes last week which was the second-lowest amount all season. He has tossed at least two TD passes in seven straight games. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Carolina Panthers (107) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (108). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-07-18 |
Toledo v. Northern Illinois UNDER 55.5 |
Top |
15-38 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Toledo Rockets (103) and the Northern Illinois Huskies (104). THE SITUATION: Toledo (5-4) has won two straight games with their 45-13 win over Ball State last Wednesday as a 19.5-point favorite. Northern Illinois (6-3) has won five straight games with their 36-26 win at Akron as a 6-point favorite last Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Rockets scored one of their touchdowns by recovering a fumble in the end zone — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. And while they generated 531 yards of offense in that game, they have played 17 of their last 23 road games Under the Total after gaining at least 525 yards in their last game. Toledo rushed for 204 yards in that game against the Cardinals last week — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. The team will likely continue to commit to establishing their ground game with junior quarterback Mitchell Guadagni likely out for this game with a shoulder injury. Sophomore Eli Peters will get his third start tonight — but he is struggling in the passing game as he is completing only 53.7% of his passes. Protecting Peters will also be an issue tonight as the Rockets have allowed 21 sacks this season — and the Huskies have compiled 32 QB sacks this season. Toledo has steadily improved on defense as they are allowing only 22.7 PPG over their last three games. They have also held their last three opponents to just 118.7 rushing YPG which is more than 50 YPG below their season average rush defense. The Under is 25-12-1 in the Rockets’ last 38 games against teams with a winning record — and they have also played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total in the month of November. Northern Illinois generated 484 yards of offense in their win over the Zips — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. Now the Huskies return home where they have played 9 of their last 13 home games Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Northern Illinois has also played 10 of their last 13 home games Under the Total as a favorite laying no more than 7 points. The Huskies are led by their defense that ranks 29th in the nation by allowing only 21.7 PPG. That number drops to just 18.0 PPG when they are playing at home — and they have allowed only 17.7 PPG over their last three games while holding those opponents to just 327.7 total YPG. Northern Illinois thrives in stopping the run as they rank 13th in the nation by allowing only 103.8 rushing YPG. The Huskies limited Akron to just 35 rushing yards last week — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 75 rushing yards in their last game. But this Northern Illinois team struggles to create offensive as they rank 123rd in the FBS by scoring 19.2 PPG while also ranking 125th in the nation by generating only 309.4 total YPG. Only 139.1 of those yards come from their passing game which ranks 121st in the nation — yet they are only averaging 3.8 Yards-Per-Carry from their rushing attack. Playing at home has not helped this offense either as they are scoring only 18.0 PPG along with just 304.0 total YPG. The Huskies have played 4 straight games Under the Total in the month of November — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against MAC opponents.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played their last 6 meetings Under the Total — and the Under is 5-1-1 in the last 7 encounters between these two teams when playing at Northern Illinois. Expect another low-scoring game between these two teams that face significant albeit different challenges on offense. 25* CFB Mid-American Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Toledo Rockets (103) and the Northern Illinois Huskies (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-04-18 |
Packers v. Patriots -4.5 |
Top |
17-31 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (472) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (471). THE SITUATION: New England (6-2) has won five straight games with their 25-6 win at Buffalo on Monday as a -13.5-point favorite. Green Bay (3-3-1) has lost two of their last three games with their 29-27 loss in Los Angeles to the Rams last week as a +7.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS MINUS THE POINTS: New England should be in prime form for this game as they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after a win by at least two touchdowns — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a Sunday on a short week after playing on Monday Night Football. The Patriots have a number of injuries heading into this game but it does look like at least Julian Edelman and Josh Gordon will play despite being listed questionable by Bill Belichick’s very liberal use of the NFL’s “questionable” designation. They return home where they are a perfect 4-0 while outscoring their visitors by +13.8 PPG and outgaining them by +99.5 net YPG. Tom Brady is leading an offense that is scoring 36.5 PPG at home where he is completing 69.9% of his passes while averaging 308 passing YPG and accounting for 12 all-purpose touchdowns. And during their five-game winning streak, the Patriots are scoring 36.4 PPG and converting 50.8% of their 3rd downs which are both the best marks in the NFL during that span. New England has covered the points spread in 7 straight home games against teams with a losing record on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 home games when favored by not more than a touchdown. Additionally, the Patriots held the Bills to just 46 rushing yards last week — and they have then covered the point spread in 12 of their last 13 games after not allowing more than 75 rushing yards in their last game. They also have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. And with this being an expected high scoring game, New England has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. Green Bay looks to be at a crossroads after the Ty Montgomery controversy last week that culminated in him being shipped to Baltimore before the trade deadline. This veteran team may not respond well to the trade of Ha-Ha Clinton-Dix since he was playing at a very high level with the move suggesting that management does not believe the team has the potential to make a deep run in the playoffs this year. As it is, the Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread victory. Now this team goes on the road where they are winless in three contests while being outscored by -8.0 PPG due to their defense that is allowing 30.3 PPG. Green Bay allowed the Rams to generate 416 yards of offense (with Clinton-Dix) last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. This team is also allowing their opponents to average 4.68 Yards-Per-Carry which the Patriots will certainly take advantage. The Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road. This will be Aaron Rodgers first game ever played in Foxboro as a professional — and that is an ominous circumstance for a quarterback that has led his team to win in just eight of his eighteen starts on the road against an AFC opponent. In those eighteen road games against the AFC, Rodgers has been sacked 50 times. Lastly, Green Bay has failed o cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: The Patriots looked flat on the road on Monday against the Bills — but they should play much better back at home tonight with the challenge of hosting Rodgers. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the New England Patriots (472) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (471). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-04-18 |
Steelers v. Ravens -2 |
Top |
23-16 |
Loss |
-105 |
5 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (456) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (455). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (4-4) has lost three straight games with their 36-21 upset loss at Carolina last week as a -2.5-point favorite. Pittsburgh (4-2-1) has won three straight games with their 33-18 win versus Cleveland last week as an -8.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAVENS MINUS THE POINTS: Baltimore has suffered upsets in two straight games as that loss to the Panthers was preceded by an upset loss at home to the Saints. This has been a tough stretch for this Ravens team — and this is a must-win situation for them. John Harbaugh’s team has been reliable when responding to adversity as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a loss by at least two touchdowns. Baltimore has played four of their last five games on the road so returning home will help. The Ravens are outscoring their visitors by +18.6 PPG while outgaining them by +92.8 net YPG — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games when favored by no more than 3 points. Baltimore has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games against fellow AFC North opponents — and they are 5-2-2 ATS in their last 9 games in the month of November. Pittsburgh remains inconsistent as they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Steelers are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. And while Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in four of their last five games, they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games on the road after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Games on the road in the 1 PM ET time slot have been the Kryptonite for Big Ben Roethlisberger as he averages 275.7 passing YPG in his last six road games in the first slate of Sunday afternoon games which is more than 40 yards below the Steelers’ 318 passing YPG average this season. He has tossed only 8 TD passes in those last six road games at 1 PM ET while also throwing six interceptions. Roethlisberger also struggles in Baltimore where the Steelers have lost seven of their last ten games while accounting for 17 turnovers while being sacked 29 times which occurs once every fourteen passing attempts. Pittsburgh has also lost six of their last seven games in Baltimore. Overall, the Steelers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against AFC North opponents — and they are just 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings with the Ravens after losing by a 26-14 score at home back on September 30th. Lastly, this Pittsburgh team remains undisciplined in their play as they are last in the league in penalties and penalty yards — and this could make a big difference in an expected close game.
FINAL TAKE: Baltimore remains a very good team despite two straight losses to two of the best teams of the NFC. Look for this team to step up with a crucial victory back at home against their arch rival. 25* NFL AFC North Game of the Year with the Baltimore Ravens (456) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (455). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-03-18 |
Georgia Tech v. North Carolina +5 |
Top |
38-28 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 12:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the North Carolina Tar Heels (336) plus the points versus the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (335). THE SITUATION: North Carolina (1-6) has lost four straight games with their 31-21 loss at Virginia last Saturday as a +7.5-point underdog. Georgia Tech (4-4) has won three of their last four games with their 49-28 upset win at Virginia Tech back on October 25th as a +3-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TAR HEELS PLUS THE POINTS: It has been a disappointing season for North Carolina — and head coach Larry Fedora is clearly on the hot seat in his seventh season with the program. But this group is still playing hard for their head coach — three of their losses have been by a touchdown or less. The Tar Heels should continue to play hard this afternoon. North Carolina has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after a point spread loss. Furthermore, the Tar Heels have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a loss to a conference rival — and they have also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after suffering four straight losses. Due to a quirk in the scheduling, North Carolina returns home to play in just their third home game all season — and playing five of their first seven games on the road is a good way to stumble into another disappointing season. The Tar Heels split their two games at home so far this season — upsetting Pittsburgh by a 38-35 score as a 3-point underdog while losing by a 22-19 score to Virginia Tech as a +6.5-point dog. North Carolina has outgained these two opponents by a decisive 504.0 to 388.5 total YPG margin. North Carolina has covered the point spread in 4 straight games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 home games with the Total set at 63 or higher. The Tar Heels have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 7 points. Georgia Tech likely played their best game of the season in their win in Blacksburg against the Hokies behind freshman Tobias Oliver who was elevated to the starting quarterback in that game. Some letdown is likely — and this team is just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up win. The Yellow Jackets won that game despite their rookie attempting only one pass in that game. All 465 of their yards on offense were from their rushing attack — and they outrushed Virginia Tech by +353 yards. But Georgia Tech has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after outrushing their last opponent by at least +150 yards. The Yellow Jackets’ spread triple-option rushing attack does tend to travel — but this is not been a reliable road warrior. Not only has Georgia Tech failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games with the Total set at 63 or higher but they have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games as the favorite.
FINAL TAKE: North Carolina has been a disappointment this season — but they did enter the season with the hopes to get back to a bowl game after their 3-9 season last year that followed this football team winning nineteen games in their previous two seasons. Playing just their third game at home this year, the Tar Heels are a hidden gem this afternoon. 25* CBB ACC Underdog of the Year with the North Carolina Tar Heels (336) plus the points versus the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (335). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-02-18 |
Colorado +3.5 v. Arizona |
Top |
34-42 |
Loss |
-115 |
16 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 10:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Colorado Buffaloes (319) plus the points versus the Arizona Wildcats (320). THE SITUATION: Colorado (5-3) has lost three straight games after their devastating 41-34 loss in overtime at home to Oregon State as 24-point favorites last Saturday. Arizona (4-5) snapped their two-game winning streak with a 44-15 upset win over Oregon as a 7-point underdog last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BUFFALOES PLUS THE POINTS: Colorado was cruising right along last week as a big favorite against the Beavers as they went into halftime with a 24-3 lead which they maintained entering the 4th quarter with the score at 31-10. But the Buffaloes never put Oregon State away who eventually clawed back to score a potential game-winning touchdown with just 30 seconds left in the game — but they missed the extra point which gave Colorado one more chance to win that game in overtime. However, the Buffaloes failed to take advantage of that second-chance as the Beavers scored a touchdown in overtime to steal that game as a road underdog of more than three touchdowns. Colorado may have lost a realistic chance to win the Pac-12 North to play for the Pac-12 Championship but head coach Mike MacIntyre still has plenty of reasons to motivate his team after they missed reaching a bowl game last year with a 5-7 record. The Buffaloes are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after a point spread loss. They also have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after enjoying a halftime lead of at least 17 points in their last game. And while they generated 536 yards of offense last week while averaging 7.15 Yards-Per-Play, Colorado has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after averaging at least 6.25 YPP. MacIntyre typically gets the most out of his team in expected close games as the Buffaloes have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 road games as an underdog getting up to 3 points. Colorado has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games played on a Friday night. Arizona pulled off their biggest win of the season in the first-year under new head coach Kevin Sumlin — but this inconsistent team may be due for a letdown. The Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 40 games after an upset victory — and this includes them failing to cover the point spread in eight of their last twelve games after an upset win as a home underdog to a Pac-12 rival. Additionally, Arizona has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a victory by at least 20 points. The Wildcats generated 465 yards in that game against the Ducks’ defense — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. Arizona also held the Oregon offense to just 270 total yards which was more than 150 yards below their 421.7 total YPG defensive average which ranks just 90th in the FBS. The Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 2 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. Arizona stays at home where they are 3-2 this season — but they are being outgained by their visitors by -7.8 net YPG. The Wildcats are 3-3 in conference play while outgaining these opponents by +17.1 net YPG — but that is overwhelmed by the Buffaloes who are outgaining their opponents by +47.0 net YPG despite their 2-3 record in Pac-12 pay. Arizona typically underachieves in expected close games as they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range.
FINAL TAKE: MacIntyre can also play the revenge card in this game after his team was upset by the Wildcats last year by a 45-42 score despite being a 6.5-point favorite at home. Arizona quarterback tore the Buffaloes defense apart by rushing for a whopping 327 yards in that game — but the junior has been slowed down by injuries this season which has limited his dual-threat capabilities. Expect Colorado to avenge that loss — but take the points for some insurance. 25* CFB Friday FS1-TV Game of the Year with the Colorado Buffaloes (319) plus the points versus the Arizona Wildcats (320). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-02-18 |
Hurricanes v. Coyotes UNDER 5.5 |
Top |
3-4 |
Loss |
-105 |
2 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 10:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Carolina Hurricanes (55) and the Arizona Coyotes (56). THE SITUATION: Carolina (6-5-1) has lost two straight games with their 3-2 loss to Boston on Tuesday. Arizona (6-5-0) has won four straight games with their 5-1 win over Ottawa on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Coyotes have scored 27 goals over their last six games which is the most in the NHL during that span — but this scoring brigade includes five goals scored short-handed over their last three games which is not likely to keep going. Arizona’s six short-handed goals this season lead the NHL. The Coyotes have played 14 of their last 17 games Under the Total after scoring at least five goals in their last game — and this includes them playing nine of their last eleven games on their home ice Under the Total after scoring at least five goals in their last contest. Additionally, Arizona has also played 13 of their last 19 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. This is also a team that leads the NHL by allowing only 1.91 Goals-Per-Game — and they are even stingier at home where their visitors are allowing only 1.40 Goals-Per-Game. In their four-game winning streak, the Coyotes have allowed only four combined goals. This team is getting outstanding goaltending from Antti Raanta. Last year, Raanta boasted a .930 save percentage along with a 2.24 Goals-Against-Average in forty-four starts in a season cut short by injuries. This year, Raanta has continued this torrid level of play by posting a 1.99 GAA along with a .926 save percentage — and he has been even nastier at home where he owns a 1.51 GAA along with a .940 save percentage. Carolina has failed to score more than two goals five times this season. They are scoring only 2.2 Goals-Per-Game in their last five contests — but they are allowing only 2.4 Goals-Per-Game over that span. They have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a loss — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after failing to score more than two goals in their last game. Now after playing their last three games at home, the Hurricanes go back on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total. Carolina has also played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total after playing three straight games at home. They will likely turn to Petr Mrazek between the pipes who has a good 2.05 GAA in his three starts on the road this year with a solid .917 save percentage. Moving forward, the Hurricanes have played 9 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 encounters Under the Total when playing in Phoenix. Expect the Coyotes’ stinginess to continue in this game in what should be a low-scoring game. 25* NHL Non-Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Carolina Hurricanes (55) and the Arizona Coyotes (56). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-01-18 |
Raiders v. 49ers UNDER 47.5 |
Top |
3-34 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Oakland Raiders (301) and the San Francisco 49ers (302). THE SITUATION: Oakland (1-6) has lost three straight games with their 42-28 loss at home to Indianapolis last week as a +3.5-point underdog. San Francisco (1-7) has lost six straight games with their 18-15 upset loss at Arizona last Sunday as a -2.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Raiders have lost three straight games by double-digits with that loss to the Colts. Oakland has played 32 of their last 46 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home including playing five of their last six games Under the Total after a loss by 10 or more points at home. The Raiders have also played 23 of their last 33 games Under the Total after suffering at least two straight double-digit losses. Oakland needs to play better on defense after surrendering 461 yards to Indianapolis. The Raiders have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least 305 yards in their last games — and they have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after giving up at least 30 points in their last game. Oakland will likely try to establish the run to help keep their defense off the field — the Raiders only had the ball for 23:30 minutes last week. This offense is down two of their top weapons from the beginning of the season with wide receiver Amari Cooper traded to the Cowboys and running back Marshawn Lynch placed on Injured Reserve with a groin injury. Doug Martin will be the main running back for the Raiders despite his averaging below 3.0 Yards-Per-Carry in the last two seasons playing in Tampa Bay. Oakland goes back on the road where they are scoring only 13.0 PPG while averaging just 320.2 total YPG. The Raiders have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total on the road. San Francisco has played 23 of their last 40 games Under the Total after losing on the road to a divisional rival. They managed just 267 yards of offense against a not-so-great Arizona defense while blowing a 15-3 fourth-quarter lead. The 49ers are dealing with a host of injuries on that side of the ball with the most significant being to quarterback C.J. Beathard. The backup to Jimmy Garoppolo is dealing with an injured wrist to his throwing hand which leaves him 50-50 to play tonight as of this afternoon’s updates — so this looks like one of those situations where even if he plays, he will not be close to 100%. The third-stringer at QB in Nick Mullens who has yet to take a snap in a regular season game. The Niners are also dealing with injuries at running back with both Matt Breida and Raheem Mostert listed as questionable with injuries. Both are expected to play tonight — but the nagging high ankle sprain to Breida has kept him under 75 yards of rushing in five straight games. This won’t likely stop head coach Kyle Shanahan from trying to run the football as his team has attempted at least 30 rushes in three of their last four games — and they rank 6th in the NFL by averaging 133.6 rushing YPG. The 49ers should have some success in moving the chains against the Raiders defense that is last in the NFL by surrendering 144.7 rushing YPG. Yet San Francisco only scores 19.3 PPG when they are playing at home. Their defense does hold their opponents to just 326.0 total YPG when playing at home in Levi Stadium. Moving forward, the 49ers have played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total in the month of November — and they have also played 8 of their last 11 games on a Thursday night Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: With both these teams struggling to move the ball on offense, expect these two teams hungry for a win attempt to win this game on the line of scrimmage. On the short week for both these teams, expect both coaches to look to go back to basics with the hopes of grinding out a win. That is a formula for a lower scoring game. 25* NFL Thursday Night O/U Special Feature with Under the Total in the game between the Oakland Raiders (301) and the San Francisco 49ers (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-01-18 |
Temple v. Central Florida UNDER 62 |
Top |
40-52 |
Loss |
-110 |
5 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Temple Owls (313) and the Central Florida Knights (314). THE SITUATION: Temple (5-3) has won three straight games with their 24-17 win in overtime versus an undefeated Cincinnati team back on October 20th by a 24-17 score as a -2.5-point favorite. Central Florida (7-0) looks to extend their 20-game winning streak coming off their 37-10 win at East Carolina back on October 20th as a -21.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Knights may receive most of their attention because they hold the nation’s longest winning streak in the nation. Their offense also gets plenty of attention since it ranks 5th in the nation in scoring (44.4 PPG) and 6th in the nation in total offense (537.1 total YPG). But the Central Florida defense is not getting enough credit as that unit also ranks 5th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 18.1. PPG. And back on their home field, the Knights see that number drop to just 17.5 PPG — and they are limiting their visitors to just 324.0 total YPG. Central Florida has played 8 of their last 12 home games Under the Total as a favorite laying 7.5 to 14 points. Additionally, the Knights have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. This team has also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. Furthermore, Central Florida has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a bye week. Their starting quarterback McKenzie Milton is listed as questionable with head coach Josh Heupel indicating he will be a game-time decision after missing their last game with the Pirates with an ankle injury. Redshirt freshman Darriel Mack struggled to pass the ball in his absence as he only accounted for 69 passing yards — but it looks like Milton will be cleared to play in this game tonight. Regardless, look for the Knights to commit to running the football as they rank 7th in the FBS by averaging 261 rushing YPG. UCF generated 316 yards on the ground without Milton under center which helped them outrush East Carolina by +226 yards. The Knights have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 200 yards — and they have also played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after outrushing their last opponent by at least +200 yards. Temple rushed for only 80 yards while giving the Bearcats their first loss of the season. They were without their star rusher, Ryquell Armstead, in that game — and he is questionable for this contest still with his ankle injury. Second-year head coach Geoff Collins is getting outstanding play out of his defense that has steadily improved this season much like last year. The Owls rank 23rd in the nation by holding their opponents to just 330.5 total YPG — and that number actually drops to a 300.7 total YPG mark when they are playing on the road. Over their last three games, Temple is holding their opponents to just 13.3 PPG along with only 263.7 total YPG. This strong play should continue as they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after winning at least three straight games. That game with Cincinnati finished Under the 47 point total, the Owls have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total following a game that finished Under the Total — and they have also played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 20 points in their last contest. On offense, Temple is getting gritty but spotty play from their sophomore quarterback Anthony Russo who won the starting gig earlier this season but is completing only 56.5% of his passes while sporting a subpar 9:10 touchdown to interception ratio. The Owls will lean heavily on their outstanding pass defense that is 18th in the FBS with 24 sacks which has helped them rank 4th in the nation overall by allowing only 147.5 passing YPG.
FINAL TAKE: Because Milton has practiced this week, the Total has shot up to the 60 range after opening in the 56.6 range. Temple’s formula for defeating their second straight unbeaten opponent will be to slow down their offense and grind out a lower-scoring game. While the Owls may not have enough offensive firepower to pull out the upset, except their defense to keep them competitive while avoiding a shootout. 25* CFB American Athletic Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Temple Owls (313) and the Central Florida Knights (314). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-31-18 |
Pistons v. Nets -2.5 |
Top |
119-120 |
Loss |
-105 |
3 h 0 m |
Show
|
At 7:35 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Brooklyn Nets (702) minus the points versus the Detroit Pistons (701). THE SITUATION: Brooklyn (2-5) looks to bounce-back from a 115-96 loss at New York against the Knicks on Monday as a 1-point underdog. Detroit (4-2) has lost two straight games with their 108-105 loss in Boston as a +8.5-point underdog last night.
REASONS TO TAKE THE NETS PLUS THE POINTS: Brooklyn should respond with a better effort tonight. The Nets have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a double-digit loss — and the 40.5% shooting percentage in that game was their lowest shooting mark of the season. Brooklyn was outworked in that game by the Knicks as they were out-rebounded by a whopping 68 to 36 margin. Rebounding was an issue for this team last season which is why they signed free agents Ed Davis and Kenneth Faried in the offseason to offer them better rebounding and defensive heft off their bench. This is a gritty team under third-year head coach Kenny Atkinson who has done a great job of coaching up the players that general manager Sean Marks has been able to bring in. Marks is doing a masterful job of rebuilding this franchise after they mortgaged the future a number of years ago in acquiring Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett from the Celtics. The key to the development of this team is the progress of Caris LeVert who can form a potent 1-2 punch with budding superstar D’Angelo Russell — and the former first-round pick is scoring 18.9 PPG this season despite scoring only 4 points on 2 of 11 shooting in that game against New York. This is a team that lives (and dies) by their 3-point shooting — and they are making 39.5% of their shots from behind the arc which is very encouraging for a team that launched the second most 3-pointers per 100 attempts last season. This team played well in a 6-point loss in New Orleans before a narrow 6-point loss at home to Golden State before laying an egg against the Knicks. Brooklyn has covered the point spread in 27 of their last 42 games after losing five or six of their last seven games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing with one day of rest. Detroit has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss on the road by 3 points or less — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Pistons have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing without a day of rest. Detroit has not been reliable in situations like this — they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 24 road games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. The Pistons have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a losing record. Furthermore, Detroit has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 trips to Brooklyn. Lastly, while the Pistons began their season with a 103-100 win at home against the Nets as 6-point favorites, they are a facing a Brooklyn team that has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games when playing with revenge.
FINAL TAKE: This is a trap game for the Pistons who might be feeling pretty good about themselves with their only two losses this season were against the Celtics after winning their first four games of the year. Brooklyn is a hardworking team that launches tons of 3s — so Detroit playing without a day of rest may be behind the proverbial 8-ball in this one pretty quickly tonight. 25* NBA Game of the Month with the Brooklyn Nets (702) minus the points versus the Detroit Pistons (701). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-30-18 |
Heat +4 v. Hornets |
Top |
113-125 |
Loss |
-105 |
2 h 40 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Miami Heat (503) plus the points versus the Charlotte Hornets (504). Miami (3-3) saw their two-game winning streak snapped last night with their 123-113 upset loss to Sacramento as a 9-point favorite. Charlotte (3-4) also looks to bounce-back from their 105-103 loss in Philadelphia as a +7.5-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HEAT PLUS THE POINTS: Miami should rebound with a strong effort tonight as they have covered the point spread in 13 of their 16 games after an upset loss as a home favorite — and they have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 road games after an upset loss. The Heat have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit loss at home. One of the strengths of this team is their depth with head coach Erik Spoelstra comfortable in using his entire bench which will helps this team playing without rest. Miami is 20-6-1 ATS in their last 27 games played on the second of back-to-back nights. The Heat made just 41.3% of their shots last night which was the worst shooting effort in their last four contests. They also played their worst defensive game of the season as the Kings made 49.5% of their shots. Miami has been a reliable road underdog who has covered the point spread in 44 of their last 67 games away from home getting the points. The Heat are also 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings with the Hornets — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 trips to Charlotte. The Hornets have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games coming off a game on the road where they lost but covered the point spread as an underdog. And while this Charlotte team has covered the point spread in five of their seven games this season, they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. This Hornets team remains middling accumulation of bad contracts that finished 36-46 in each of their last two seasons. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on their home court. Rookie head coach James Borrego is one of a handful of coaches this season that uses an amped-up pace to attempt to disguise mediocre talent. But Charlotte has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games with the Total set in the 220 to 229.5 point range — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 home games with the Total set in that range.
FINAL TAKE: Miami will also be motivated to avenge a 113-112 upset loss at home to Charlotte back on October 20th where they were +3.5-point favorites. The Heat felt like they got jobbed in that game after a controversial foul was called that allowed Kemba Walker the opportunity to win the game at the free throw line as time expired. Miami should put themselves in a position to pull the upset tonight. 25* NBA Southeast Division Game of the Month with the Miami Heat (503) plus the points versus the Charlotte Hornets (504). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-29-18 |
Manchester City -0.75 v. Tottenham Hotspur |
Top |
1-0 |
Win
|
50 |
1 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 4:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Manchester City (2501) minus the goal-line versus the Tottenham Hotspurs (2502). THE SITUATION: Man City (7-2-0) enters this EPL match coming off a dominant 5-0 win over Burnley last Saturday. Tottenham (7-0-2) has won four straight EPL matches after their 1-0 win at West Ham last week.
REASONS TO TAKE MANCHESTER CITY MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Spurs look good on paper with their seven wins so far this season that has them 5th in the standings with 21 points. But Tottenham has only placed two of the Top-Six teams in the EPL this season with those contests resulting in a 2-1 loss at home to Liverpool and a 3-0 win at Manchester United against that team in the middle of their struggling campaign earlier this season. And these Spurs are not a confident group right now after already being eliminated from Champions League competition after their disappointing 2-2 draw with PSV last Wednesday. Tottenham lost a decisive match to Barcelona by a 4-2 score earlier this month. This team is playing with less energy on the pitch which has resulted in some sluggish efforts against lesser-tiered opponents that they managed to get by. Manager Maurice Pochettino has his team pressing less in their opponent's territory. Last year, the Spurs were 3rd in forcing turnovers in the last third of the pitch — but they have dropped to 13th in that category this season. Harry Kane is not in form with whispers getting louder that he is tired from a long summer campaign in the World Cup with England. The team does get Delli Alli back at midfield for this match — but that could create some short-term cohesion issues. Tottenham also does not retain much of a home-field advantage. They were supposed to be playing in their new stadium at this point but construction delays mean that this team is still calling Wembley Stadium their temporary home. This is just their fourth home contest in the EPL this season. They hosted Man City last year in April at Wembley and lost by a 3-1 score. Manchester City has outscored their four home hosts by an 8 to 1 margin so far this season. They also are 5-1-0 in their last six road matches played in London including winning four wins in a row. Manager Pep Guardiola is also 7-4-2 in his last encounters with Pochettino’s teams. Overall, Man City is outscoring their opponents by a dominant 26 to 3 goal differential. Those numbers should be more decisive since this team has been without their best player in midfielder Kevin DeBruyne. The Belgian superstar has been out since mid-August with an injury but returned to the pitch last week to help his team win their Champions League midweek match. While DeBruyne does not put up the best scoring numbers in the league, he is the glue for this team while also possessing the most dangerous leg in the world from 40-feet away. He makes this team even more dominant than their early season form suggests.
FINAL TAKE: One last important consideration is that these teams will be playing on a dodgy pitch for this one considering that this field was just used for the Eagles-Jaguars NFL game yesterday. This is the unplanned result of the Spurs’ new stadium not being ready. There simply is not enough time to get this field up to par again for a soccer match that wants a clean surface to facilitate passing. This hurts the Spurs since their movement is more pass-dependent. Man City can use their speed to move up the pitch with fewer passes. I think it is going to be difficult for Tottenham to score. 25* English Premier League Match of the Month with the Manchester City (2501) minus the goal-line versus the Tottenham Hotspurs (2502). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-28-18 |
Saints v. Vikings UNDER 54.5 |
Top |
30-20 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (273) and the Minnesota Vikings (274). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (5-1) won their fifth straight game last week with their 24-23 win in Baltimore last week as a +2.5-point underdog. Minnesota (4-2-1) has won three straight games with their 37-17 win in New York against the Jets last week.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Saints have covered the point spread in four straight games — and they have then played 4 straight games Under the Total after covering the point spread in four of their last five contests. New Orleans has also played 19 of their last 28 games Under the Total after a narrow win by 3 points or less. Expect the Saints to once again focus on their ground game to win the Time of Possession battle which keeps their defense fresh while keeping a good offense off their home field. That was the formula for success last week against the Ravens as they ran the ball 39 times for 134 yards which helped them control Time of Possession for 33:31 minutes. New Orleans is also playing outstanding run defense as they are holding their opponents to just 2.87 Yards-Per-Carry while leading the league by allowing only 108 rushing YPG. The Saints have not allowed more than 77 rushing yards in four straight games — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in two straight games. Their pass defense received a boost this week with the acquisition of cornerback Eli Apple — I expect him to get some time on the field in this game in obvious passing situations despite just joining the team. New Orleans stay on the road where they have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total. The Saints have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total in the month of October. Minnesota has covered the point spread in three straight games — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. Additionally, the Vikings have played 27 of their last 40 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a win on the road. Mike Zimmer’s team has stepped up their play on the defensive side of the football. Over their last three games, they are holding their opponents to just 18.3 PPG along with just 298.7 total YPG. This unit is also the top 3rd down in the NFL — and they will be getting a boost in this game with their elite defensive end Everson Griffen cleared to play again by the team after dealing with some off-the-field issues. The Vikings offense is undermanned with running back Delvin Cook out with a hamstring and left tackle Riley Reiff also out with a foot injury. Minnesota is only scoring 19.0 PPG on their home field while averaging 348.7 total YPG which is more than 30 yards below their season average. But their visitors are averaging just 296.0 total YPG. The Vikings have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total at home — and they have also played 6 of the last 7 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. And while the Minnesota offense exploded for 37 points last week, they have then played a decisive 36 of their last 52 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points — and this includes them playing seven of their last eight games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points. The Vikings had only 316 yards of offense in that win over the Jets but benefited from a +4 net turnover margin. Minnesota has then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a game where they had at least a +2 net turnover margin. And in their last 12 games as an underdog, the Vikings have played 8 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: While it might be tempting to think these two teams with potent passing attacks will get into a shootout, this shapes up to be a game where both teams will be looking to keep the other team’s offense off the field. 25* NFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (273) and the Minnesota Vikings (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-28-18 |
Red Sox v. Dodgers OVER 7.5 |
Top |
5-1 |
Loss |
-102 |
1 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 8:09 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (909) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (910) listing both starting pitchers David Price and Clayton Kershaw. THE SITUATION: Boston (118-57) seized a 3-1 lead in the World Series last night with their come-from-behind 9-6 victory over the Dodgers.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Red Sox have now played 14 of their last 19 road games Over the Total when priced as an underdog in the +125 to +175 price range. And while Boston has just a .219 batting average over their last five games in these playoffs, they have played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total after a five-game span where they did not have better than a .225 batting average clip. This team is still scoring 6.1 Runs-Per-Game in the playoffs even after that recent slide. They give the ball to Price who was 16-7 with a 3.58 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in thirty regular season starts. The left-hander was much better at home in Fenway Park where he had a 2.98 ERA with a 1.08 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .213 — but those numbers spike to a 4.31 ERA with a 1.22 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .249 when pitching on the road. Price also had a 3.89 ERA in his twenty-one regular season starts at night. Additionally, many of Price’s notorious struggles in the playoffs have been on the road given his career 6.02 ERA with a 1.32 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .273. Los Angeles (100-78) had their bullpen surrender 8 runs in just three innings of work after that group logged-in eleven innings in Friday night’s 18 inning marathon. The Dodgers have played 22 of their last 36 games Over the Total when their bullpen has pitched at least 9 combined innings in their last two games. Los Angeles has also now played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against American League teams with a winning record. They counter with their ace Kershaw who only pitched 4 innings while giving up 5 earned runs in his Game One start against the Red Sox in the World Series. The lefty has a 4.60 ERA in the playoffs in his career — and the Dodgers have played 7 of their last 11 games in the playoffs Over the Total.
FINAL TAKE: With the Dodgers playing with desperation — but also a tired bullpen — expect another high-scoring game. Price is pitching on short rest — and the Boston bullpen will be looking forward to (at least) one day off tomorrow. 25* MLB Sunday Night O/U Special Feature with Over the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (909) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (910) listing both starting pitchers David Price and Clayton Kershaw. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-28-18 |
49ers -1.5 v. Cardinals |
Top |
15-18 |
Loss |
-102 |
3 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (269) minus the point(s) versus the Arizona Cardinals (270). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (1-6) has lost five straight games after their 39-10 loss to the LA Rams last Sunday as an 8-point underdog. Arizona (1-6) has lost two straight games with their 45-10 loss at home to Denver on Thursday Night Football last week as a 1-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS MINUS THE POINT(S): San Francisco will be playing with revenge on their minds from a 28-18 loss to the Cardinals three weeks ago. The Niners were 3-point favorites in that game and dominated the contest at the line of scrimmage by outgaining the Cardinals by +237 net yards but were stymied by a +5 net turnover margin to give that game away. The 49ers have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 34 games when attempting to avenge an upset loss. San Francisco should play better after being overwhelmed by the last remaining undefeated team in the league. The 49ers have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss at home to an NFC West rival. Despite winning only one game, this team is playing hard for second-year head coach Kyle Shanahan despite the disappointing season-ending injury to quarterback Jimmy Garappolo. San Francisco has lost three of their games by one scoring possession. Second-year QB C.J. Beathard has been solid under center this year save for last week’s game with the Rams. He is supported by a rushing attack that is second in the NFL that averages 127 rushing YPG that will be getting Matt Breida back from injury for this contest. The Niners have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. San Francisco needs to do a better job protecting the football as they suffered a -4 net turnover margin last week after enduring a -3 net turnover margin two weeks ago in Green Bay - and that was the game after their turnover-fest against this Cardinals team. The 49ers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after suffering at least a -2 net turnover margin in three straight games. Now San Fran goes on the road where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a losing record at home. The Niners have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games in Arizona against the Cardinals. Arizona has only forced seven turnovers in their other six games this season besides the game where they were gifted five times by these 49ers. The Cardinals’ offense is a complete mess as was painfully demonstrated in that Thursday night game where they managed only 223 yards of offense while surrendering two pick-six interceptions returned for touchdowns in just the first quarter of that game. That was too much for rookie head coach Steve Wilks who promptly fired offensive coordinator Mike McCoy. As if it is McCoy’s fault for a conservative game plan — this is the same offensive head coach who helped Peyton Manning in Denver along with Philip Rivers in San Diego thrive behind dynamic passing attacks. He was replaced by Bryon Leftwich who is considered a rising star in the coaching ranks. But Leftwich cannot fix a broken offensive line that was already one of the worst units in the league before left guard Mike Iupati suffered his shoulder injury that will keep him out for this game. Leftwich has no experience calling plays as well — save for some authority given to him during the preseason. The Cardinals are last in the NFL in rushing yards (64.6 YPG), total yards (220.9 YPG), 3rd down success rate (23.1%) and Big Plays (26). Leftwich can install flashier schemes for rookie quarterback Josh Rosen — but if the young QB still struggles to grasp the playbook, becoming more aggressive with this offensive line might be the quickest route for a season-ending injury for their franchise quarterback. Wilks is struggling in his first year as a head coach — and one of the benefits McCoy brought was years of coaching experience including a stint as the head coach with the Chargers. This is all bad news for a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games when being listed in the +/- 3-point range.
FINAL TAKE: While both these teams have only won one game, the 49ers have been much more competitive in their games. Look for them to avenge their earlier loss to the Cardinals. 25* NFC West Game of the Month with the San Francisco 49ers (269) minus the point(s) versus the Arizona Cardinals (270). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-27-18 |
San Diego State -2 v. Nevada |
Top |
24-28 |
Loss |
-110 |
20 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 10:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the San Diego State Aztecs (159) minus the points versus the Nevada Wolf Pack (160). THE SITUATION: San Diego State (6-1) has won six games in a row with their 16-13 win over San Jose State last Saturday as a 25.5-point favorite. Nevada (4-4) returns home after their 40-22 upset win at Hawai’i last week as a 3-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE AZTECS MINUS THE POINTS: The Wolf Pack is likely due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread victory. Nevada outgained the Warriors by +110 net yards in that win — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games are outgaining their last opponent by at least +125 net yards. And while that game finished below the 67 point Total, the Wolf Pack have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total. Nevada’s “Pack Attack” version of the Air Raid offense generated 481 yards in that game while averaging 7.18 Yards-Per-Play — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after averaging at least 6.25 YPP in their last game. The Wolf Pack are facing a significant increase in competition in level of play from a defense tonight as the Aztecs rank 14th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 306.9 total YPG. In Nevada’s previous two games at home hosting Fresno State and Boise State, they averaged only 15.0 PPG while generating just 356.5 total YPG which was over 75 yards below their season average. But defense is the bigger concern for this team as they are allowing 32.1 PPG which is 98th in the FBS due mainly to a leaky secondary that is allowing 261.9 passing YPG which is 107th in the nation. This Wolf Pack team has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. San Diego State has not covered the point spread in three of their last four games — but they have covered the point spread in 28 of their last 39 games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four contests. They have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a point spread loss while they have also covered the point spread in 25 of their last 36 games on the road after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three games. Head coach Rocky Long’s team has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after winning a game where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. The Aztecs’ offense has dealt with two challenging injuries with senior quarterback Christian Chapman and junior running back Juwan Washington has been out since September with injuries. Junior quarterback Ryan Agnew completed only 7 passes of his 11 attempts for 86 yards last week while adding another 16 yards — but it is not like Chapman was a gunslinger before his injury. Agnew does offer the offense more of a rushing threat than Chapman does. The Aztecs offense has been successful using a committee of running backs that combined to accumulate 207 yards last week on 47 carries. Sophomore Chase Jasmin has rushed for 460 yards this season after gobbling up 79 yards on 19 carries last week while freshman Chance Bell added another 81 yards on the ground on 15 carries. This is San Diego State’s formula for success — and they are 18-8-1 ATS in their last 27 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. The Aztecs held the Spartans to only 62 rushing yards last week — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after outrushing their last opponent by at least +125 net yards. San Diego State has also turned the ball over once in each of the last two games — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after not turning the ball over more than once in their last contest. This Rocky Long recipe has helped his team cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road.
FINAL TAKE: The Aztecs have won twenty-five of their last twenty-nine games in Mountain West Conference play over the last four seasons because of their outstanding defense and a commitment to run the football and not risk turning the ball over. The San Diego State offense will be facing a 3-3-5 defensive formation that they practice against every day. Nevada was likely to bounce-back from their disappointing 3-9 season last year — but this is a football program that has steadily declined from the strong Chris Ault-coached era that concluded in 2012. 25* CFB Mountain West Conference Game of the Year with the San Diego State Aztecs (159) minus the points versus the Nevada Wolf Pack (160). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-27-18 |
Red Sox +1.5 v. Dodgers |
Top |
9-6 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 8:09 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Boston Red Sox (907) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Los Angeles Dodgers (908) listing both starting pitchers Eduardo Rodriguez and Rich Hill. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (100-77) survived last night’s marathon contest that needed 18 innings to resolve before they scored to pull out a 3-2 victory. They are now down 2-1 in this series but avoided tonight’s game being a potential elimination game.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RED SOX PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: Boston had now won six straight games in these playoffs before losing last night. The Red Sox have bounced-back to win 34 of their last 50 games after a loss. They also have won 11 of their last 12 fourth games of a series. And they have won 5 of their last 6 games on the road. Recovering from last night’s physical and mental exhaustion will be a challenge for both teams tonight. Boston has won 14 of their last 17 games in the World Series which helps give them institutional knowledge regarding how to handle this situation. Their bullpen logged in 12 1/3 innings last night — but they have won 35 of their last 46 games after a game where their bullpen pitched at least 9 innings. Furthermore, the Red Sox have won 18 of their last 23 games against National League opponents. And perhaps most stunning, this Boston team has pulled the upset to win 12 of their last 18 games on the road when priced as an underdog at least at +150. After indications were that manager Alex Cora was going to tap Drew Pomeranz as tonight’s starting pitcher, he made the wise decision to instead give the ball to Rodriguez despite him pitching 1/3 of an inning last night. I just don’t see that as a big deal — and David Price was quite effective making a start after making an appearance out of the bullpen the night before in their last series against the Astros. Rodriguez enjoyed a solid season with a 13-5 record with a 3.82 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP. The left-hander was more effective on the road where he had a 1.20 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .213 as compared to his 1.32 WHIP and .255 opponent’s batting average when pitching at home. The Red Sox have won 10 of their last 11 road games with Rodriguez on the hill. He should fare well against this slumping Dodgers’ team that is scoring only 3.7 Runs-Per-Game in the playoffs with a .208 batting average along with a .297 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .638. Los Angeles may also get psyched out with a facing another left-hander starting pitcher since it will likely compel manager Dave Roberts to bench his left-handed bats of Cody Bellinger, Joc Pederson, and last night’s hero Max Muncy. The Dodgers have still lost 4 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. They counter with Hill who was 11-5 with a 3.66 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP during the regular season. The veteran left-hander was not as effective at home where he saw his ERA rise to a 3.69 mark with a 1.22 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .246 as compared to his 3.63 ERA when on the road with a 1.04 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .193. The Red Sox have won 5 straight games against left-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: The value of the Run-Line was in full display last night as it bought us insurance for the Dodgers’ eventual one-run victory. Like with Game Three, I consider this game a toss-up. With the price of the Run-Line under my -150 price threshold even after the pitching change to Rodriguez, what was likely a pass on the side play with Pomeranz now becomes a strong play on the Red Sox with the valuable +1.5 Run-Line. 25* MLB Saturday Night Run-Line Special Feature with the Boston Red Sox (907) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Los Angeles Dodgers (908) listing both starting pitchers Eduardo Rodriguez and Rich Hill. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-27-18 |
NC State v. Syracuse UNDER 66 |
Top |
41-51 |
Loss |
-105 |
9 h 50 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the North Carolina State Wolfpack (125) and the Syracuse Orange (126). THE SITUATION: NC State (5-1) suffered their first loss of the season last week with their 41-7 loss at Clemson as an +18.5-point underdog. Syracuse (5-2) enters this game coming off a 40-37 win in overtime over North Carolina as a -9.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Wolfpack have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread setback. Additionally, they have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a loss by at least 20 points in their last game. NC State managed only 297 yards of offense against the Tigers in that game — and they have failed to cover in 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game. The Wolfpack are scoring 28.7 PPG this season — but the number drops to just 22.0 PPG in their two games on the road so far this year. NC State has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing on the road. The Wolfpack did allow 471 yards to Clemson in that first loss of the season — but not only have they then played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game while also seeing the Under go 9-3-1 in their last 13 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last contest. NC State does have a good defense that ranks 31st in the nation by allowing 20.8 PPG. Syracuse has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have also seen the Under go 9-2-1 in their last 12 games after a point spread setback. The Orange did generate 546 yards of offense in that game that needed overtime to resolve — but they have then see the Under go 12-4-1 in their last 17 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. Syracuse allowed 500 yards to the Tar Heels in that contest as well — and they have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after allowing at least 450 yards in their last contest. The Orange stay at home where they are making it difficult for opponents to move the football. Syracuse is allowing only 18.7 PPG in four contests at home. The Under is 11-3-1 in the Orange’s last 15 games home — and this includes the Under go 4-0-1 in their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road.
FINAL TAKE: This Total has risen to the high-60s in large part because of the fast pace that this Syracuse engages in under head coach Dino Babers’s up-tempo system. But the Wolfpack head coach Dave Doreen will be well aware of this dynamic and look to slow the game down when his team has the football. NC State won last year’s meeting with the Orange by a 33-25 score which fell well below the 62.5 total. That was the 5th game finish Under the Total in the last 6 meetings between these two teams. 25* CFB ACC Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the North Carolina State Wolfpack (125) and the Syracuse Orange (126). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-27-18 |
Purdue v. Michigan State +1 |
Top |
13-23 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Michigan State Spartans (188) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Purdue Boilermakers (187). THE SITUATION: Michigan State (4-3) has lost two of their last three games after losing their rivalry game at home against Michigan last Saturday by a 21-7 score as a 7.5-point underdog. Purdue (4-3) has won four straight games after their huge 49-20 upset over Ohio State last Saturday night as a 12-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SPARTANS MINUS (OR PLUS) THE POINT(S): That was the biggest wins in the first two years in head coach Jeff Brohm’s tenure at Purdue to upset the Buckeyes at home on national television. A letdown for this team is likely. As it is, the Boilermakers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a win by at least 20 points. After losing their first three games of the season to Northwestern, Eastern Michigan and Missouri, Purdue has won their last four contests. This team has raced out to fast starts in their last three games with halftime leads of 20-7 at Nebraska followed by a 29-7 lead at Illinois before taking Ohio State to the locker room at halftime with a 14-3 lead last week. But it is difficult to sustain these opening leads — and this Boilermakers team has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after leading by double-digits at halftime in three straight games. Purdue is led by quarterback David Blough who is leading an offense that is 6th in the nation by averaging 337.6 passing YPG. The Boilermakers have averaged at least 328 passing yards in three straight games — and they have generated at least 516 total yards in those contests. But Purdue has then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after passing for at least 300 yards in three straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after gaining at least 450 yards in three straight games. Blough passed for 378 yards last week against the Ohio State defense — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 road games after passing for at least 375 yards in their last game. This team goes on the road for just the third time this season after relatively easy trips to Nebraska and Illinois — and it will be challenging to maintain their high level of proficiency in the passing game in the cold Michigan air this afternoon. The Boilermakers have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 30 road games as an underdog getting 7 or fewer points. Michigan State has lost three times this season which is a disappointment to head coach Mark Dantonio after he returned nineteen starters from last year’s team that finished 10-3 with a 42-17 win over Washington State in the Holiday Bowl. The Spartans were completely stymied on offense last week against the stout Wolverines defense as they managed only 95 total yards. Junior quarterback Brian Lewerke is out for this game after suffering a shoulder injury — so redshirt freshman Rocky Lombardi will be under center for this game. The 6’3 signal caller has a similar profile as Lewerke with his strong arm and mobility — so I do not expect much of a downgrade in the Michigan State offense. Lombardi will be throwing against a vulnerable Boilermakers’ pass defense that ranks 127th in the nation by allowing 296.4 passing YPG. Purdue allowed 546 yards in their win over the Buckeyes last week — and they rank 103rd in the nation by allowing 433.1 total YPG. The Spartans need to win this game in the trenches by flexing their muscles on defense. After returning nine starters and 86% of the tackles from last year’s unit that finished 7th in the nation by allowing 297.6 total YPG, this year’s group has taken a step back by allowing 355.3 total YPG which is 44th in the FBS. The Michigan State run defense has been outstanding as they second in the nation by allowing only 79.6 rushing YPG — but they are getting torched in the passing game by allowing 275.7 passing YPG which is 116th in the nation. The Sparty pass defense has improved in the last two weeks as they have allowed only 404 combined passing yards in their last two games against Penn State and Michigan. While the secondary has seen an injury to returning starter Josiah Scott at cornerback, Michigan State returned all five starters from their secondary last season so these have been proven players. Expect the Spartans to respond with a strong effort this afternoon as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a point spread setback. Michigan State has only covered the point spread twice in their seven games this season — but they have then covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after failing to cover the point spread in five or six of their last seven games.
FINAL TAKE: Purdue has benefitted from both a light and favorable schedule away from home so far this season — and their reliance on their passing attack will be harder to execute as the weather changes. Michigan State has underachieved at home this year — but this remains a talented team that will be angry after last week’s loss to the Wolverines. 25* CFB Big Ten Game of the Month with the Michigan State Spartans (188) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Purdue Boilermakers (187). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-26-18 |
Utah v. UCLA +11 |
Top |
41-10 |
Loss |
-110 |
5 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 10:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the UCLA Bruins (120) plus the points versus the Utah Utes (119). THE SITUATION: UCLA (2-5) has won two straight games with their 31-30 win over Arizona last Saturday as a 10-point favorite. Utah (5-2) has won three straight games after their 41-28 win over USC as a 6.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BRUINS PLUS THE POINTS: Utah has registered double-digit victories in three straight games against Stanford, Arizona, and USC in a stretch where they have averaged at least 41 PPG. But head coach Kyle Whittingham’s team may be due for a letdown now as a double-digit road favorite — especially against a struggling UCLA team that they crushed by a 48-17 score last season. The Utes are 3-2 in Pac-12 play so far this season — but they are still an unimpressive 31-37 straight-up in their last sixty-eight games against Pac-12 competition over the last seven and a half seasons. Utah did hold the Trojans with their rookie quarterback J.T. Daniels to just 132 passing yards last week — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing no more than 170 passing yards in their last game. The Utes go back on the road where they may have a 2-1 record but they are only outgaining their opponents by +0.4 net YPG. Utah has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 23 road games when favored by 7.5 to 14 points. UCLA is playing better football in winning their last two games this season. First-year head coach Chip Kelly has cleaned house by removing many of the players he inherited from the bloated and underachieving Jim Mora era. This is now a very young team that Kelly and his staff are coaching up. The improvements are most pronounced on offense where they have scored 34.0 PPG in their last two games while averaging 405.5 total YPG. Kelly got a boost last week with the healthy return of quarterback Wilton Speight who completed 17 of 27 passes for 204 yards with two touchdown passes. The graduate transfer from Michigan may not be mobile but he can operate the Kelly up-tempo offense that emphasizes an efficient passing attack similar to the one that Nick Foles successfully executed for Kelly in his first year with the Philadelphia Eagles. Speight will likely get the start in this game after missing time since the opening game of the season after he took the practice snaps with the first team this week. Freshman Dorian Thompson-Robinson is dealing with an arm issue which makes his questionable tonight but Kelly has said he might be under center for parts of this game. The Bruins’ defense has been opportunistic in their last two games as they have forced eight turnovers. UCLA leads the Pac-12 with a +6 turnover margin — and the atmosphere of this nationally televised night game may help coax some mistakes by the Utes. The Bruins have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 home games as an underdog. UCLA has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 24 games after losing five or six of their last seven contests, the Bruins have covered the point spread in 16 of these contests.
FINAL TAKE: Utah is primed for a letdown after three easy victories — especially after the highs of defeating Stanford and USC. Expectations are low for this young Bruins team right now — but there remains talent which makes them dangerous as they continue to develop under Kelly and his coaching staff that have not forgotten how to coach. Lastly, the ability for Kelly to call on their 31-point loss to the Utes last year will surely be a good motivator. 25* CFB Friday ESPN Game of the Month with the UCLA Bruins (120) plus the points versus the Utah Utes (119). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-26-18 |
Red Sox +1.5 v. Dodgers |
Top |
2-3 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 49 m |
Show
|
At 8:09 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Boston Red Sox (905) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Los Angeles Dodgers (906) listing both starting pitchers Rick Porcello and Walker Buehler. THE SITUATION: Boston (117-56) seized a 2-0 lead in the World Series on Wednesday with their 4-2 victory over the Dodgers. The series moves to Los Angeles for potentially three-weekend games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RED SOX PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: Boston has now won six straight games in these playoffs — and they have also won 5 straight games on the road. The Red Sox have also won 22 of their last 30 road games in Interleague play — and they have won nine of their last ten road games against National League teams with a winning record. Boston has also won 14 of their last 16 games in the World Series. They give the ball to Porcello who was 17-7 with a 4.28 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in thirty-three regular season starts. The right-hander saw his ERA improve to a 3.86 mark in eighteen starts. The Red Sox have won 4 of the last 5 games on the road with Porcello on the hill. Boston has also won 15 of their last 16 games with Porcello on the hill in Interleague play. Much has been made about the Dodgers now getting to get their trio of left-handed batters in Cody Bellinger, Max Muncy, and Joc Pederson into the lineup now that the Red Sox are not sending a left-handed starting pitcher out on the hill. While those three sluggers combined to club 85 home runs this season, Los Angeles (99-77) is scoring 5.0 Runs-Per-Game against right-handed starting pitchers this season with a .249 batting average along with a .326 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .757 which are numbers not significantly better than their 4.8 Runs-Per-Game scoring margin for the season along with a .248 batting average, .327 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .749. The Dodgers have now lost 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. The Dodgers have also lost 5 straight games after an off-day. And in their last 5 games in the World Series going back to last year, this team has lost 4 of these contests. They will be placing their hopes on Buehler who was 7-5 with a 2.76 ERA with a 0.98 WHIP in twenty-two starts in the regular season. But the rookie right-hander is 0-1 with a 10.38 ERA along with a 2.08 WHIP in three starts this postseason. He has not managed a Quality Start in those three starts either as he did not complete 5 innings of work one good outing in the NLCS against the Brewers. He faces a Red Sox team that is scoring 5.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games. Boston has won a decisive 46 of their last 64 road games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have won 4 of their last 5 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower.
FINAL TAKE: I have been patiently watching the money-line movement on this game. I am seeing the prices drop to -150 for the Red Sox plus the +1.5 Run-Line in enough betting locations to make me comfortable in endorsing this play. I definitely find Boston plus the +1.5 Run-Line the best side option tonight — the issue has been whether or not the price matches my -150 threshold guideline. 25* MLB Run-Line of the Year with the Boston Red Sox (905) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Los Angeles Dodgers (906) listing both starting pitchers Rick Porcello and Walker Buehler. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-25-18 |
Dolphins v. Texans UNDER 45.5 |
Top |
23-42 |
Loss |
-109 |
6 h 60 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (103) and the Houston Texans (104). THE SITUATION: Miami (4-3) has lost three of their last four games with their 32-21 loss to Detroit as a 3-point underdog on Monday. Houston (4-3) has won four straight games with their 20-7 upset win at Jacksonville last week as a +3.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Dolphins have turned to Brock Osweiler at quarterback with Ryan Tannehill dealing with a shoulder injury. Osweiler was outstanding in his first start against the Bears where he led an offense that tallied 541 yards while averaging 7.21 Yards-Per-Play. The Miami offense slowed down last week against the Lions by generating 322 yards while averaging 6.44 YPP. The Dolphins have played 21 of their last 28 games Under the Total after gaining at least 6.0 YPP in each of their last two games. Osweiler faces his toughest challenge yet against his former team with the Texans’ head coach Bill O’Brien and his defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel likely licking their chops to get after their former quarterback who was an utter flop after signing a big contract with them. Osweiler will also be limited tonight with his wide receiving unit being a M*A*S*H unit right now with DeVante Parker, Kenny Stills and Albert Wilson all out for this game. After playing their last two games at home, the Dolphins go on the road where they are scoring 14.5 PPG while averaging just 242.0 total YPG. Miami has played 4 straight games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 9 of their last 12 road games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Additionally, the Dolphins have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against fellow AFC opponents. Furthermore, Miami is 8-1-1 in their last 10 games Under the Total when playing on a short-week Thursday game. Houston has played 5 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Texans won that game despite generating only 272 yards of offense with quarterback DeShaun Watson completing just 12 of 24 passes for 139 passing yards. The second-year pro is clearly not at 100% as he deals with a collapsed lung and broken rib. These injuries have limited his dual-threat capabilities as he has rushed for only 15 yards in his last two games. O’Brien wants his team grinding out low-scoring games as his team has not scored above 22 points more than once this year. The Texans have played 4 straight games Under the Total after failing to pass for more than 150 yards in their last game under O’Brien. The Houston defense is playing quite well as they have only 12.0 PPG along with just 260.0 total YPG over their last three games. The Texans held the Jaguars to only 70 rushing yards on 22 carries — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 75 rushing yards in their last game. With Miami’s depleted wide receiving corps, they will commit to running the football — but they will go against a Houston defense that is holding opposing rushers to just 3.35 Yards-Per-Carry. The Dolphins have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total at home — and they have also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against fellow AFC opponents.
FINAL TAKE: Neither of these teams wants a higher scoring game — especially when both of these teams are playing on a short week. Expect a lower scoring game. 25* NFL Thursday Night O/U Special Feature with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (103) and the Houston Texans (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-25-18 |
Baylor +14 v. West Virginia |
Top |
14-58 |
Loss |
-105 |
6 h 53 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Baylor Bears (113) plus the points versus the West Virginia Mountaineers (114). THE SITUATION: Baylor (4-3) looks to bounce-back from a 23-17 loss at Texas back on October 13th as a 14-point underdog. West Virginia (5-1) also looks to rebound from a 30-14 upset loss at Iowa State as a -4.5-point favorite two Saturdays.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: Baylor should play well tonight as they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game. While the Bears have lost two of their last three games, they should gain confidence from playing the Longhorns close in Austin in their last game. Matt Ruhle’s team was just 1-11 last year in his first-year as the head coach in Waco. That team has ravaged with injuries — but yet they played much better than their final record indicated as they were only outgained by -40 net YPG despite losing eight of their nine games in Big 12 play. Baylor has a promising quarterback in sophomore Charlie Brewer who is leading an offense that is 11th in the nation by averaging 313.3 passing YPG — and the Bears are 18th in FBS in total offense by averaging 475.0 total YPG. Ruhle’s team is outgaining their opponents by +67.1 net YPG — and they are also outgaining their opponents when playing on the road by +21.3 net YPG. Baylor is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 road games as an underdog getting 10.5 to 14 points. West Virginia saw their undefeated season go by the wayside in that loss in Ames against the Cyclones which may have ruined their realistic chances of making the College Football Playoffs. The Mountaineers may be angry over that loss while still being galvanized with the fact that they still control their fate to win the Big 12 Conference Championship. But this team has not responded well to setbacks well under eighth-year head coach Dana Holgorsen. West Virginia has failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 40 games after an upset loss — and this includes them failing to cover the point spread in eleven of their last thirteen home games coming off an upset loss to a conference rival. The Mountaineers have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a double-digit upset loss as a road favorite. West Virginia was overwhelmed in that loss to Iowa State as they allowed 498 yards of offense while managing just 152 yards themselves. That is not a good sign for this game as they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 475 yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after being outgained by at least 225 yards. West Virginia’s struggles on offense are likely to continue as they are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after failing to score more than 20 points. The extra week of rest and preparation in the Holgorsen regime has not served the Mountaineers well either as they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a bye week. West Virginia has also failed to cover the points spread in their last 4 games in the month of October.
FINAL TAKE: Despite everything that went wrong with the Bears last season, Baylor played the Mountaineers tough last year by losing by just a 38-36 score. They were trailing by a 38-13 sore before Ruhle put in Brewer in an attempt to spark the offense — and the freshman QB did by almost leading his team to the comeback victory. That experience should give this entire team confidence tonight — and the extra week Ruhle has had to help his defense scheme against the Holgorsen spread offense. 25* CFB Thursday FS1-TV Game of the Year with the Baylor Bears (113) plus the points versus the West Virginia Mountaineers (114). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-24-18 |
Dodgers v. Red Sox OVER 8.5 |
Top |
2-4 |
Loss |
-108 |
6 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 8:09 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (903) and the Boston Red Sox (904) listing both starting pitchers Hyun-Jun Ryu and David Price. THE SITUATION: Boston (116-56) won Game One of the World Series last night by an 8-4 score over the Dodgers.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Red Sox have now won five straight games in these playoffs — and they have played 14 of their last 18 games Over the Total after winning at least five straight games. Boston has also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a victory. Additionally, the Over is 9-1-2 in their last 12 games home in Fenway Park — and they have also played 16 of their last 25 home games Over the Total when the Total is set in the 7 to 8.5 range. They turn to Price tonight who was outstanding last Thursday when he helped the Red Sox close out the ALCS in Houston by pitching six scoreless innings in the win. But while Price’s postseason struggles were perhaps a bit overblown, he still has underachieved in the playoffs when compared to his regular season performances given his 5.04 ERA in 85 2/3 innings of work which includes a 5.11 ERA this postseason even after last Friday’s strong effort. Price had a 3.58 ERA in thirty regular season starts but he did see his ERA rise to a 3.90 mark in his twenty-one starts at night. Boston has played 12 of their last 19 games Over the Total with Price pitching after a start where he did not allow more than one earned run — and they have also played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total with Price following up a start where he did not allow an earned run. He faces this Dodgers’ team that has now seen the Over go 5-2-1 in their last 8 games against left-handed starting pitchers. Los Angeles (99-76) has also now played 7 of their last road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. The Over is also 5-1-1 in the Dodgers’ last 7 games in Interleague play. And in their last 16 games as an underdog priced in the +125 to +175 range, Los Angeles has played 11 of these games Over the Total. They counter with Ryu who was 7-3 with a 1.97 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP in fifteen regular season starts. But the left-hander was not nearly as effective on the road where he saw his ERA and WHIP rise to 3.58 and 1.23 marks. Ryu was hit hard for seven hits and five earned runs in his last start which was in Milwaukee last Friday where he did only pitch 3 innings. He faces this Red Sox team tonight that is scoring 5.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests — and this is Ryu’s first ever start in Fenway Park with its menacing Green Monster an inviting target for right-handed batters. The Over is 8-1-2 in Boston’s last 11 home games in their last 11 games against left-handed starting pitchers — and the Over is also 34-16-2 in their last games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower.
FINAL TAKE: The Dodgers will be playing with desperation in this game after losing last night and not wanting to return to LA down 0-2 in this series. The Total was a run lower at 7.5 yesterday with the Clayton Kershaw-Chris Sale showdown — yet expect another higher-scoring game between these two left-handed starting pitchers in Fenway Park. 25* MLB Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (903) and the Boston Red Sox (904) listing both starting pitchers Hyun-Jun Ryu and David Price. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-23-18 |
Dodgers v. Red Sox -147 |
Top |
4-8 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 18 m |
Show
|
At 8:09 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Boston Red Sox (902) versus the Los Angels Dodgers (90) listing both starting pitchers Chris Sale and Clayton Kershaw. THE SITUATION: Boston (115-56) reached the World Series by disposing of the Astros in just five games with their 4-1 victory in Houston last Thursday. Los Angeles (99-75) survived a seven-game series with the Brewers with their 5-1 victory in Milwaukee on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RED SOX WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Boston has won 42 of their last 59 games after allowing no more than two runs in their last game. They earned home field advantage in this series by having the best record in MLB during the regular season — and they have won a decisive 46 of their last 55 games at home in Fenway Park. The Red Sox have also won 6 of their last 7 games at home in World Series games. And Boston has won 46 of their last 60 games against National League teams — including winning sixteen of their last twenty games in Interleague play. They give the ball to Sale who has not pitched in nine days after dealing with a stomach ailment that caused him to miss a start. The left-hander seems completely fine now and has pitched well in his last bullpen session. Sale was 12-4 with a 2.11 ERA and a 0.86 WHIP in twenty-seven starts durian the regular season. The Red Sox have won 6 of their 8 games at home with Sale on the hill — and they have won 4 straight games with Sale pitching with at least nine days of rest. He faces cold Dodgers lineup that is scoring only 3.3 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .223 batting average along with a .291 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .619 over that span. Los Angeles has lost 4 of their last 5 games after a victory as they have struggled to maintain momentum in this postseason. The Dodgers have also lost 25 of their last 41 road games as an underdog priced in the +100 to +150 price range. They counter with Kershaw who is 9-5 with a 2.73 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP in twenty-six starts in the regular season. The left-hander has not been quite as effective when pitching away from Dodgers Stadium given his 2.90 ERA with a 1.07 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .243 in thirteen road starts during the regular season as compared to his 2.58 ERA with a 1.02 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .211 at home. Kershaw saw his ERA rise to a 3.89 mark in the month of September where he allowed eight earned runs in two disappointing starts — and he has a similar 3.86 ERA in his four postseason appearances along with a 1.29 WHIP. He faces a Red Sox team that has won 13 of their last 16 home games against left-handed starting pitchers. Boston is also scoring 7.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests.
FINAL TAKE: Kershaw has never pitched in Fenway Park in his career — so he will be experiencing the Green Monster in left-field for the first time tonight. Boston has been the best team in MLB this season — they should take a 1-0 lead in this series tonight behind their ace in Sale. 25* MLB Game of the Year with the money-line on the Boston Red Sox (902) versus the Los Angels Dodgers (90) listing both starting pitchers Chris Sale and Clayton Kershaw. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-23-18 |
Troy v. South Alabama UNDER 55.5 |
Top |
38-17 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Troy Trojans (101) and the South Alabama Jaguars (102). THE SITUATION: Troy (5-2) enters this game coming off their 22-16 upset loss at Liberty back on October 13th as a 12-point favorite. South Alabama (2-5) looks to build off their 45-7 win over Alabama State as a 27.5-point favorite two Saturdays ago.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Trojans have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread loss — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game. This team had a hole to fill at quarterback in the offseason with the graduation of a four-year starter in Brandon Silvers. Junior Kaleb Barker was the top quarterback on the depth chart — but he has suffered a season-ending ACL injury. That leaves head coach Neal Brown to should between sophomore Sawyer Smith and freshman Gunner Watson who have played against the Flames but combined to pass for just 160 yards. Troy has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after failing to pass for at least 170 yards in their last game. This team had to replace their top two running backs from last year in Jordan Chunn and Josh Anderson — top in line was junior Jamarius Henderson who averaged 7.9 Yards-Per-Carry last year but he has suspended indefinitely this season. That is a lot of attrition of offensive talent — and while the Trojans are scoring 33.7 PPG while averaging 413.6 total YPG, those numbers drop to 25.0 PPG along with just 338.3 total YPG in their three games on the road. Troy does hold their home hosts to just 22.7 PPG. The Under is 10-3-1 in their last 14 games on the road — and this includes them playing four of their last five road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. Additionally, the Trojans have played 17 of their last 23 road games Under the Total in the month of October — and the Under is also 5-2-1 in their last 8 games in October overall. South Alabama has also experienced attrition at the quarterback position this season. The losses started in the spring when Dallas Davis left the program two days before the Spring Game. The senior had been the team’s starter in the previous two seasons. Fellow senior Cole Garvin was indefinitely suspended in mid-September leaving the team in the hands of senior Evan Orth who is leading an offense that is 113th in the nation by averaging just 343.0 total YPG. The Jaguars have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a bye week. South Alabama has held their three visiting teams to just 22.7 PPG along with only 343.7 total YPG. The Jaguars defense has not forced a turnover in their last two games — but they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a game where they did not force a turnover while also playing 17 of their last 23 games Under the Total after not forcing at least one turnover in each of their last two games. Additionally, the Under is 5-2-1 in South Alabama’s last 8 games in the month of October.
FINAL TAKE: The Under is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams. With both teams dealing with less than ideal quarterback situations and both coaching staffs having extra time to scheme and prepare for these respective offenses, expect a lower-scoring game. 25* CFB Sun Belt Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Troy Trojans (101) and the South Alabama Jaguars (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-22-18 |
Giants +6 v. Falcons |
Top |
20-23 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 51 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the New York Giants (475) plus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (476). THE SITUATION: New York (1-5) takes the field again after an embarrassing 34-13 loss at home to Philadelphia as a +1.5-point underdog two Thursdays ago on national television. Atlanta (2-4) survived a 34-29 victory at home last Sunday against Tampa Bay as a 3-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINTS: New York has lost three straight games amidst internal drama about the play of Eli Manning. But this team gets an important piece back on offense in tight end Evan Engram who has been out with a knee injury. His presence on the field should help Manning while opening things up for Odell Beckham Jr. and their rookie running back Saquon Barkley. The Giants passing game has not been bad with Manning under center — they rank 13th in the league by averaging 260.8 passing YPG. But New York is scoring only 19.5 PPG which is 27th in the NFL. Engram should really help their Red Zone offense. As it is, the Giants have rebound to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss — and they are 13-6-2 ATS in the last 21 games after a double-digit loss at home. New York did generate 401 yards of offense against the reigning Super Bowl Champions while outgaining the Eagles by +22 yards. The Giants have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after failing to score more than 14 points. New York trailed after the first thirty minutes of this game by a 24-6 score after going into halftime the previous week against Carolina by a 20-13 score. A better start tonight is critical — and this team has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 15 games after allowing at least 17 points in the first half of their last two games. New York goes on the road where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record at home. They also have covered the point spread in when playing with extra rest and preparation after playing a Thursday game. Perhaps facing the M*A*S*H unit which is this Falcons team is just what the doctor ordered. Injuries on defense have decimated that unit for Atlanta — they rank second-to-last in the league by allowing 32.0 PPG while ranking 30th in the NFL by giving up 417.2 total YPG. Additionally, the Falcons rank last in the NFL by giving up 24 touchdowns so far this season — and they are last in the NFL by allowing their opponents to convert on 56.2% of their third downs so Manning should have a good game tonight. As the injuries have mounted, Atlanta has allowed 35.0 PPG over their last four contests. The Falcons outlasted the Buccaneers last week despite allowing 510 yards of offense (389 passing yards) and getting outgained by -93 yards. They benefited from a +2 net turnover margin in that game. But that does not bode well for Atlanta tonight as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. Furthermore, the Falcons have failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 30 home games after a win at home. Matt Ryan did lead Atlanta to outscore the Bucs in that game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. The Falcons have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after generating at least 400 yards in their last game. Additionally, Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. The Falcons have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of the last 5 games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games in the month of October under head coach Dan Quinn.
FINAL TAKE: Both these teams are looking to salvage seasons that started with high expectations. Atlanta’s fall has been more devastation when considering they made the Super Bowl just two seasons ago but have now experienced seemingly insurmountable injuries. Add running back Devonta Freeman and their veteran kicker Matt Bryant who are also out for this game. The Giants are getting healthier — and they have played pretty well on the road where they are only being gained by -3.0 net YPG. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month with the New York Giants (475) plus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-22-18 |
Leicester v. Arsenal OVER 3 |
Top |
1-3 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Leicester City (2501) and Arsenal (2502). THE SITUATION: Arsenal (6-0-2) takes the pitch again in English Premier League play after the international break that they went in on with a 5-1 victory over Fulham back on October 7th. Leicester City (4-0-4) went into the two-week international break on a 2-1 loss at home to Everton on October 6th.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Arsenal is one of the hottest teams in the EPL. They are looking for their tenth straight victory in all competitions as well as their seventh straight win in EPL play. The Gunners are clicking under first-year coach Unai Emery’s high-pressing, counter-attack system that creates scoring opportunities. Arsenal has scored 19 goals this season for a crisp 2.38 Goals-Per-Game scoring average. Part of the improved success for this team has certainly been because of a favorable turn of the schedule. The Gunners opened their EPL season with a difficult road against Manchester City and then Chelsea. Their six EPL matches since have been against teams outside the traditional top-six franchises (like Leicester City). In those matches, Arsenal has scored 17 goals while finding the back of the net at least twice in all those contests. The other factor that has jumpstarted this group is Emery’s decision to play Alexandre Lacazette at forward at the same time with striker Pierre-Emerick Aubemeyang. These two have developed a nice chemistry between them to form a dangerous combination of scoring threats. They each scored twice in that match against Fulham. But Emery’s high-pressing style risks making the back-line vulnerable to attack — and quality defensemen is a weakness of this team. Leicester City scores goals — they have 14 goals this season while scoring in all eight of their matches. Jamie Vardy remains one of the best strikers in all of the EPL after his star-making season in 2015-15 when he led the Foxes to the surprising EPL title. Leicester City also has found a spark plug to jumpstart their offense with midfielder James Maddison who they signed in the summer transfer period from Norwich City. Vardy has three goals with one assist this season despite a slow start to the season after helping England’s run to the Semifinals at the World Cup — and then he missed another two matches after receiving a Red Card suspension. Maddison has three goals with two assists from his midfield position. But the Foxes’ defense too often is leaky as they have allowed 12 goals this season — including 9 goals in their last five matches for a concurring 1.80 Goals-Allowed mark. Their defense will be shorthanded for this match with their captain Wes Morgan unavailable after he was issued a Red Card in that match with the Toffees two weeks ago.
FINAL TAKE: Leicester City has played two top-six opponents this season with both ending in 2-1 losses to Liverpool and Manchester United. It seems that the Gunners scoring twice and the Foxes scoring once is the baseline for this match — so let’s take our (good) chances that a fourth goal will be scored in this one this afternoon. 25* EPL Monday NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between Leicester City (2501) and Arsenal (2502). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-21-18 |
Bengals +6.5 v. Chiefs |
Top |
10-45 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 55 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bengals (463) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (464). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (4-2) looks to bounce-back from their 28-21 upset loss to Pittsburgh last week as a -1.5-point favorite. Kansas City (5-1) looks to rebound as well from their narrow 43-40 loss at New England last Sunday night as +3.5-point underdogs.
REASONS TO TAKE THEN BENGALS PLUS THE POINTS: Cincinnati played good enough to finally defeat their AFC North rivals in the Steelers — but they gave Ben Roethlisberger too much time to engineer a game-winning drive after they tied the score up late in the 4th quarter. Marvin Lewis’ team should rebound with a strong effort as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread setback. The Bengals have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after an upset loss as a home favorite to an AFC North rival. Cincinnati needs to play better on the defensive side of the football after allowing 369 passing yards to Pittsburgh. The Bengals have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 21 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. But this team is an underrated offensive machine under coordinator Bill Lazor as they rank 6th in the league by scoring 29.0 PPG. This scoring average rises to a 30.7 PPG mark when they are on the road — and they generating 417.3 total YPG away from home as well. Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road. They also have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games against AFC opponents. Kansas City saw their undefeated season end last week in front of a nationally televised audience — but this remains a team favored by the betting public with Patrick Mahomes almost pulling off the comeback win against the Patriots. The Chiefs have paid off bettors in all six of their games this season — but that is a dangerous bandwagon to jump on to now. As it is, Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in their last 3 games after riding a six-game point spread winning streak. The Chiefs offense is certainly dynamic as they have averaged at least 424 yards of offense with a 6.24 Yards-Per-Play average in each of their last three games. But the Chiefs have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after averaging at least 400 yards in three straight games. Kansas City has also failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 19 games after averaging at least 6.0 YPP in three straight games. But with all those passing attempts are also possibilities to turn the ball over — and Mahomes has thrown multiple interceptions in two straight games. The problem for this Chiefs team is their porous defense that is allowing 28.7 PPG which is the sixth-most in the league. Kansas City really misses their veteran leader Eric Berry in their secondary who does not appear close to returning to the field. They will also be without linebacker Justin Houston who is dealing with an injured hamstring.
FINAL TAKE: Despite losing to the Steelers last week, the Bengals are an underappreciated team in the AFC. Expect a close game with the points being very valuable. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the Cincinnati Bengals (463) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (464). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-21-18 |
Cowboys v. Redskins +2 |
Top |
17-20 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 51 m |
Show
|
At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Washington Redskins (472) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Dallas Cowboys (471). THE SITUATION: Washington (3-2) looks to build off their 23-17 upset win over Carolina last week as a 1-point underdog. Dallas (3-3) hopes to build off their 40-7 blowout win over Jacksonville last Sunday as a 3-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SKINS PLUS THE POINTS: The Cowboys are feeling pretty good about themselves after thoroughly dominating the Jaguars last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 31 games after a victory at home by at least three touchdowns. Dallas has also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after a win by at least four touchdowns. Dallas is a perfect 3-0 at home where they are outscoring their opponents by +14.0 PPG — but it has been a completely different story when they go on the road where they are 0-3 with an average losing margin of -7.4 PPG. The Cowboys are scoring just 12.3 PPG away from home and generating a mere 275.7 total YPG while being outgained by -74.3 net YPG. The decline in offensive production is coming from Dak Prescott and their passing attack that is producing only 156 passing YPG on the road. And while this Dallas team has an underrated defense, they have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 30 road games after not allowing more than 9 points in their last game. The Cowboys have also not covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games against teams with a winning record. Washington benefited from a +3 net turnover margin last week against the Panthers — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after enjoying a +2 or better net turnover margin in their last game. This team is doing a great job in protecting the football as they are second in the NFL with the fewest giveaways. The Skins did a great job of playing keep-away as they had a Time of Possession of 35:24 minutes in that game. But Washington will look to play better on defense after surrendering 6.03 Yards-Per-Play along with 269 passing yards. The Skins have covered the points spread in 10 of their last 15 games after allowing at least 6.5 YPP — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last contest. Washington stays at home where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games — and they have covered the point spread in 3 straight games at home with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42 point range.
FINAL TAKE: Head coach Jay Gruden and the Skins coaching staff has certainly spent plenty of time in the offseason preparing for the Cowboys after losing their last four games against their NFC East rivals. Washington has not defeated Dallas since January 3rd of 2016 but that was in the Kirk Cousins era. The Skins have new hope to dispatch of their divisional rivals with Alex Smith under center. 25* NFC East Game of the Month with the Washington Redskins (472) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Dallas Cowboys (471). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-21-18 |
Texans v. Jaguars -3.5 |
Top |
20-7 |
Loss |
-102 |
2 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Jacksonville Jaguars (468) minus the points versus the Houston Texans (467). THE SITUATION: Jacksonville (3-3) looks to bounce-back from their ugly 40-7 upset loss at Dallas last week as a 3-point favorite. Houston (3-3) has won three straight games with their 20-13 win over Buffalo as a 10.5-point favorite last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE JAGUARS MINUS THE POINTS: I have no illusions about this Jacksonville team that seems to be a shadow of the group that almost upset New England in last year’s AFC Championship Game. The Jags have lost six of their last eleven games and have taken a (predictable) step back on defense. And the Blake Bortles situation only seems to be worsening before it reaches its inevitable end. That all said — and after getting burned on this team last week — we want to be investing in situations like this. This is an embarrassed team that has lost two straight games by at least 16 points — but they have then covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after a loss by at least two touchdowns. Jacksonville has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a point spread setback. Now after playing their last two games on the road, this team returns home where they are outscoring their opponents by +9.0 PPG and outgaining them by +167.6 net YPG. Bortles tends to play better on his home field where he is leading an offense that is generating 405.3 total YPG. The team traded for running back Carlos Hyde this week but he is not expected to suit up with the short turnaround — but they still have a capable running back in T.J. Weldon. While their offense managed only 204 yards last week, they ave then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to gain at least 250 yards in their last game. The Jags’ defense should also play better at home where they are limiting their opponents to just 13.7 PPG along with only 232.7 total YPG. Jacksonville is 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. The Jaguars have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on their home field. And in their last 10 games against fellow AFC South opponents, Jacksonville has covered the point spread 7 times. Houston may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a point spread victory. The Texans won that game despite Deshaun Watson passing for only 142 net yards — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to pass for more than 150 team yards. Watson is protected by one of the weakest offensive lines in the NFL — expect for him to be in trouble all afternoon against this stout and deep Jaguars defensive line. Now after playing their last two games on the road, Houston goes back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games. And in their last 6 games against AFC South foes, the Texans have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of these games.
FINAL TAKE: Even if Jacksonville is just a .500 team at this point, they should play one of their best games of the season at home against a divisional rival. 25* NFL AFC South Game of the Month with the Jacksonville Jaguars (468) minus the points versus the Houston Texans (467). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-21-18 |
Titans +7 v. Chargers |
Top |
19-20 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 28 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Tennessee Titans (451) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (452). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (3-3) looks to bounce-back from a 21-0 shutout loss at home to Baltimore last Sunday as 2.5-point underdogs. Los Angeles (4-2) has won three straight games after their 38-14 triumph on the road at Cleveland as a small 1-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TITANS PLUS THE POINTS: Tennessee’s offense was simply dormant last week as they managed only 106 yards of offense against the stout Ravens defense. The Titans need to get back to running the football — Derrick Henry ran the ball only 7 times in that loss last week. The shutout loss should get the attention of the offense in practice and meetings this week. Tennessee has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to generate at least 275 yards of offense. The Titans have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after a straight-up loss — and this includes then covering the point spread in six of their last eight contests after a setback. Tennessee also surrendered 361 yards of offense in that game to Baltimore — but they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 375 yards of offense. Defense is a strength of this team as the Titans ranked 3rd in the NFL by allowing only 17.8 PPG while also ranking 8th in the league by only giving up just 337.8 total YPG. These difficult trips to London test the character of teams — and I expect head coach Mike Vrabel’s team to respond with a strong effort. This team’s play on defense improves on the road as they limit their opponents to just 15.3 PPG and just 265.7 total YPG. Tennessee ranks 5th in the NFL by holding their opponents to just 214.7 passing YPG — so they should be able to slow down Phillip Rivers and the Chargers’ passing attack. The Titans have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Los Angeles has the difficult trip of traveling to London from the west coast — and they were already coming off a game on the road in Cleveland. A letdown looks possible for this Chargers team that is feeling pretty good about themselves right now. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by at least two touchdowns — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. Additionally, the Chargers are just 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. And while LA generated 449 yards of offense against the Browns defense, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game.
FINAL TAKE: Expect a spirited effort from this Titans team after their embarrassing performance last week. Their strong defense and a commitment to winning the game at the line of scrimmage should help them keep things close. 25* NFL London Calling Game of the Year with the Tennessee Titans (451) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (452). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-20-18 |
Dodgers v. Brewers -103 |
Top |
5-1 |
Loss |
-103 |
1 h 26 m |
Show
|
At 8:09 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Milwaukee Brewers (962) versus the Los Angeles Dodgers (961) listing both starting pitchers Jhoulys Chacin and Walker Buehler. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (102-70) forced a climactic seventh game of the National League Championship Series with their 7-2 victory over the Dodgers last night.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BREWERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: I like the chemistry of this team a bit more than what seems to bond the Dodgers. Not only has Milwaukee won 11 of their last 14 games against teams with a winning record — and they have also won a decisive 35 of their last 52 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Brewers have also won 7 of their last 8 games after scoring at least five runs — and they have won 7 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last contest. They give the ball to Chacin who has been outstanding in the postseason. Including Milwaukee’s tie-breaker game on October 1st against the Cubs that gave the opportunity to host this seventh game as the top seed in the National League, Chacin has allowed only one earned run in 16 innings of work in his three postseason starts — he owns a 0.56 ERA with an 0.88 WHIP in those three starts. The Brewers have also won 6 of their last 8 home games with Chacin facing a team with a winning record. Manager Craig Counsell also has the luxury of a rested Josh Hader coming out of the bullpen tonight. The fireballing lefty has not allowed an earned run in his last seven appearances which has spanned 9 innings. He has only allowed five base bits over that span while striking out 15 batters. Los Angeles (98-75) has lost 13 of their last 17 games on the road in NLCS — and the Dodgers have also lost 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. I worry about the chemistry of this team with the apparent emotional team leaders being in a rental in Manny Machado and Yusiel Puig who has been erratic and inconsistent throughout his career. This team acted like they won the series won they took Game Five on Tuesday — but now this group risks being eliminated once again in the playoffs tonight. They put their faith in their rookie right-hander Buehler who has enjoyed a fantastic season with 7-5 record with a 2.76 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP. But Buehler has been exposed in his last two starts in these playoffs as he has allowed nine earned runs over 12 innings of work. Buehler has not been as effective on the road either where his ERA and WHIP rise to 3.45 and 1.12 marks. The Dodgers have lost 5 of their last 7 road games with Buehler facing a team with a winning record — and they have lost 4 of their last 5 games with Buehler looking to stop a losing streak. Buehler faces a powerful Milwaukee offense that has won 5 of their last 7 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower — and they have lost 20 of their last 27 games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: The home field and the home crowd should really help the Brewers play the role of spoiler and advance to the World Series. 25* MLB Saturday Night Special Feature with the money-line on the Milwaukee Brewers (962) versus the Los Angeles Dodgers (961) listing both starting pitchers Jhoulys Chacin and Walker Buehler. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-20-18 |
North Texas v. UAB UNDER 53.5 |
Top |
21-29 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the North Texas Mean Green (385) and the UAB Blazers (386). THE SITUATION: North Texas (6-1) has won two straight games coming off their 30-7 win over Southern Mississippi last Saturday as 7-point favorites. UAB (5-1) has won four in a row with their 42-0 shutout win at Rice last week as 17-point favorites.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Blazers are playing outstanding defense — they have allowed only 14 combined points over their last three games. They held the Owls to just 186 yards last week — and they should continue their strong play on the defensive side of the football. UAB has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total after a win of at least three touchdowns against a Conference USA rival. Now this team returns home where they are holding their guests to just 10.3 PPG along with only 265.3 total YPG. The Blazers have played 4 straight games Under the Total on their home field. Additionally, UAB has played 5 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total in the month of October. And while the Blazers put up 42 points last week, they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. North Texas has played 7 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have 5 straight games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Mean Green also play stout defense as they rank 19th in the FBS by allowing only 17.6 PPG — and that number drops to just 16.0 PPG when they are playing on the road. UNT thrives in stopping the run as they rank 7th in the nation by allowing just 97.0 rushing YPG. They have allowed only 104 and 50 rushing yards respectively in each of their last two games — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 125 rushing yards in their last game. Additionally, the Mean Green have played 17 of their last 21 games Under the Toal after winning two straight games — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. Lastly, UNT has played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home.
FINAL TAKE: The number is posted in the low-50s for this game given the strong offenses both these teams have along with the memory of the 46-43 barn-burner between these two teams last season with the Mean Green pulled out. Both of these defenses are much improved this season — expect a lower scoring game. 25* CFB Conference USA Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the North Texas Mean Green (385) and the UAB Blazers (386). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-20-18 |
Oregon v. Washington State -2.5 |
Top |
20-34 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 26 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Washington State Cougars (368) minus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (367). THE SITUATION: Washington State (5-1) returns to the field off a bye week after they crushed Oregon State on the road two Saturdays ago by a 56-37 sore as an 18.5-point favorite. Oregon (5-1) comes off a big 30-27 upset win at Washington in overtime last week as a 3.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE COUGARS MINUS THE POINTS: That was the biggest win so far in the first-year of new head coach Mario Cristobal at Oregon — but they may be due for a letdown now. The Ducks are just 3-13-1 ATS In their last 17 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after a win on their home field. Oregon has also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a point spread victory. The Ducks have benefited from only committing one turnover in each of their last two games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after not committing more than one turnover in two straight games. Now this team goes back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road with the number set in the 63.5 to 70 point range. Washington State (5-1) should build off the momentum of their win two weeks ago. The Cougars have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 26 games after a point spread victory. Washington State has also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. Led by East Carolina transfer Gardner Minshew at quarterback, the Cougars are leading the nation by averaging 413.7 passing YPG. Minshew operating the Mike Leach Air Raid offense should have their way against this Ducks pass defense that is tied for 88th in the nation by allowing 239.0 passing YPG. Oregon allowed Stanford to pass for 327 yards against them — and that is not nearly as potent a passing offense as what they will have to deal with tonight. Experience and depth were concerns for the Ducks a cornerback entering the season — and this is, by far, their biggest test of the season. But what has helped push this football program to the next level has been a significant improvement of play on the defensive side of the football After ranking 16th in the nation last season by holding their opponents to just 323.3 total YPG, the Cougars have improved that number this year as they are holding their opponents to only 313.7 total YPG which ranks 15th in the FBS. Washington State has covered the point spread in 8 straight games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: Oregon has started strong with five wins in their first six games — but they have benefited from a sweetheart early schedule that saw five of those games at home. This is the Ducks just second game away from home. Washington State has won nineteen of their last twenty-three games at home over the last four seasons — and they are also a dominant 21-9 straight-up in Pac-12 play in the Leach era going back the last four seasons. Expect their offense to be too for this Oregon team. 25* CFB Saturday Night Fox-TV Game of the Month with the Washington State Cougars (368) minus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (367). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|