08-16-21 |
Padres v. Rockies +1.5 |
Top |
5-6 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 8:40 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Colorado Rockies (956) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the San Diego Padres (955) listing both starting pitchers Antonio Senzatela and Ryan Weathers. THE SITUATION: Colorado (52-66) has lost five of their last six games after their 5-2 loss at San Francisco yesterday. San Diego (67-53) snapped a four-game losing streak with their 8-2 win at Arizona yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ROCKIES PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: Colorado did upset the Giants on Saturday — and they have won 14 of their last 18 games at home after losing two of their last three games. They have also won 12 of their last 17 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. And while the Rockies have not scored more than four runs in their last six games, they have then won 8 of their last 10 games at home after not scoring more than four runs in their last game. Now Colorado returns home where they have been much better this season — the last time they played at Coors Field, they scored 13 runs back on August 8th. The Rockies have won 35 of their last 51 games at home — and they have won 4 of their last 5 home games with the Total set at 11 or higher. They give the ball to Senzatela who has a 2-9 record with a 1.43 WHIP in 19 starts. The right-hander has produced a Quality Start in three of his last four efforts — so he should at least keep the Rockies in the game. He has been more effective at home where he owns a 4.04 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .274 in 11 starts as compared to his 5.80 ERA, 1.71 WHIP, and .335 opponent’s batting average on the road. In his last six starts at home, Senzatela has a 3.14 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP. The Rockies have won 10 of their last 12 home games in the second half of the season with Senzatela on the mound — and they have won 13 of their last 20 home games with Senzatela pitching as an underdog. He should pitch well against this Padres team that is scoring only 3.9 Runs-Per-Game with a .243 Batting Average, .310 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .709 in their last seven games. San Diego has lost 5 of their last 7 games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Padres did not commit an error over the weekend in their series with Arizona — but they have lost 12 of their last 18 road games after not committing an error in at least two straight games. Additionally, San Diego has lost 39 of their last 58 road games with the Total set at 11 or higher — and they have lost 5 of their last 6 road games when favored. They counter with Weathers who is 4-5 with a 4.72 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP in 21 games this season which includes 15 starts. The left-hander has struggled as of late with a 10.80 ERA and a 2.31 WHIP in his last three starts. He also has a 5.01 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP in his 15 games and 11 starts under the lights at night. San Diego has lost 6 of their last 7 games in the second half of the season with Weathers making the start. He faces a Rockies team that scored 5.9 Runs-Per-Game at home with a .286 Batting Average, .344 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .832.
FINAL TAKE: Colorado has won 7 of their last 10 games against San Diego — and they have won 4 straight games at Coors Field against the Padres. While the money-line is an option, I prefer taking the added insurance of the +1.5 Run-Line with it priced below my -150 price threshold. 25* MLB National League West Run-Line Underdog of the Year with the Colorado Rockies (956) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the San Diego Padres (955) listing both starting pitchers Antonio Senzatela and Ryan Weathers. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-15-21 |
West Ham United v. Newcastle United OVER 2.5 |
Top |
4-2 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between West Ham United (200033) and Newcastle United (200034). THE SITUATION: West Ham (W0-D0-L0) looks to build on their sixth-place finish last season in the English Premier League. Newcastle (W0-D0-L0) finished last year in 12th place in the EPL, 17 points clear of relegation.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: West Ham concluded their EPL campaign last year by going unbeaten in four of their last five games. They scored six goals in their final two matches. The Hammers are much better when their striker Michail Antonio is healthy and leading their attack as he was at the end of last season. West Ham was sixth in the EPL last year with 37.2 expected goals (xG). The attack led by Antonio has been in good form in the preseason — they defeated a talented Atalanta side from Series A by a 2-0 score before blowing out Celtic from La Liga by a 6-2 margin. But the Hammers defense remains an issue under manager David Moyes. They have not had a clean sheet in their last seven road matches in league play — and they surrender eight goals in their last five EPL road contests. Newcastle won three of their last four games to safely avoid relegation last season with manager Steve Bruce embracing a more aggressive attack. Having a healthy Callum Wilson and Allan Saint-Maximin up top offers this team finishing talent. The Magpies scored ten goals in their final four league games. In their final 11 matches in the EPL, Newcastle was third in generating Big Scoring Chances (with a 35% or better chance of success) and fourth in expected goals. But defense is also an issue for this team. Their expected goals allowed (xGA) of 37.2 in the second half of the season was the fifth most. They also only had two clean sheets at home. That is not a good sign for a team that will have to use their third-string keeper in Freddie Woodman given injuries to their top-two keepers.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams last played on April 17th when Newcastle won by a 3-2 score. Expect another higher-scoring contest between these two teams. 25* English Premier League Sunday NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between West Ham United (200033) and Newcastle United (200034). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-14-21 |
Liverpool -1.25 v. Norwich City |
Top |
3-0 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 12:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Liverpool (200029) minus the goal-line versus Norwich City (200010). THE SITUATION: Liverpool (W0-D0-L0) returns to the pitch after finishing in third place in the English Premier League last season. Norwich City (W0-D0-L0) was promoted back to the English top-flight after winning the Championship League last season.
REASONS TO TAKE LIVERPOOL MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Norwich City was last in the EPL two years ago when they finished in last place with a mere 21 points in 38 matches. There was a clear talent disparity between the Canaries and even mid-table teams. Norwich City responded by winning the Championship League — but they were fortunate. While they allowed only 36 goals, their expected goals allowed (xGA) rose to a 52.5 mark which was ninth-worst in the league. That team also had the services of Emi Buendia who scored 15 goals and added 17 assists. The midfielder transferred to Aston Villa last week as that team made moves to compensate for the loss of Jack Grealish who signed a big contract with Manchester City. The Canaries will miss the 3.1 chances per game that Buendia provided — he was involved in 43% of the goals they scored last season. To compound matters, manager Daniel Farke is dealing with a COVID outbreak in the locker room leaving the team undermanned for their return to the EPL. Liverpool is rested for this match with star players like Mo Salah and Sadio Mane not involved with summer competition with their national teams. Injuries on their backline held the Reds back last season. And don’t underestimate the impact the compacted schedule due to COVID had on this team after a two-year run of winning the English Premier League title and competing deep into two Champions League campaigns. Manager Jurgen Klopp’s side ended strong by going unbeaten in their last ten matches — and they won their last five contests. Liverpool also grabbed 19 of the possible 21 points in their final seven road contests.
FINAL TAKE: Liverpool has won their last six trips to Carrow Road to play Norwich City. While I don’t usually like taking heavy road favorites in the EPL, the Reds enter this season with a chip on their shoulder. Rested and ready — with more talent and in better health — the Reds should roll. 25* EPL NBC-TV Match of the Month with Liverpool (200029) minus the goal-line versus Norwich City (200010). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-11-21 |
Marlins v. Padres OVER 8 |
Top |
7-0 |
Loss |
-120 |
2 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 4:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Miami Marlins (901) and the San Diego Padres (902) listing both starting pitchers Sandy Alcantara and Ryan Weathers. THE SITUATION: Miami (47-67) has lost five games in a row with their 6-5 loss on the road to the Padres yesterday. San Diego (66-49) has won four straight games as well as six of their last eight.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Marlins have played 4 straight games Over the Total after a loss — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after losing at least four games in a row. Miami has also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have played 4 straight Overs after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. Additionally, the Marlins have played 6 straight Overs on the road. They have also played 19 of their last 28 games Over the Total as a money-line underdog. They give the ball to Alcantara who comes off his worst outing of the season where he was pummeled for seven earned runs in 3 2/3 innings of work at Colorado on August 6th. For the season, the right-hander has a 6-10 record with a 3.70 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in 23 starts. While I would typically expect a bounce-back performance after such a disappointing showing, my optimism is tempered by the deeper sabermetrics. Alcantara’s SIERA and xFIP both call for some regression at 4.09 and 3.89. Alcantara has done his best pitching at home where he owns a 2.58 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .195 — but those numbers rise to a 4.86 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, and .267 opponent’s batten average in his 12 starts on the road. Miami has played 5 straight Overs with Alcantara facing a team from the NL West. He faces a hot-hitting Padres team even without an injured Fernando Tatis as they are scoring 5.6 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven contests with a .293 Batting Average, .355 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .785. San Diego has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. The Padres have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a win — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total after winning at least four in a row. San Diego has played 20 of their last 28 home games Over the Total — and they have played 14 of their last 19 home games Over the Total with the number set in the 7-8.5. range. They counter with Weathers who is 4-4 this season with a 4.26 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP in 69 2/3 innings. The sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.94 and 4.88 moving forward. The left-hander has struggled at home where he has a 5.92 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .304. in 38 innings. His teams have played 7 of their last 8 home games Over the Total with Weathers making the start. He faces a Marlins team that has played 4 straight road games Over the Total against left-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Miami has played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total in August — and San Diego has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total in August. Lastly, the Over is 10-1-2 in the last 13 meetings between these two teams when playing in San Diego. 25* MLB Getaway Game Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Miami Marlins (901) and the San Diego Padres (902) listing both starting pitchers Sandy Alcantara and Ryan Weathers. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-10-21 |
Diamondbacks v. Giants -1.5 |
Top |
7-8 |
Loss |
-105 |
5 h 36 m |
Show
|
At 9:45 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the San Francisco Giants (962) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (961) listing both starting pitchers Alex Wood and Zac Gallen. THE SITUATION: San Francisco (71-41) has won two straight games as well as seven of their last nine with their 5-4 win at Milwaukee on Sunday. Arizona (35-78) has lost two in a row and seven of their last nine contests after a 2-0 loss at San Diego on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: The Diamondbacks are a hot mess. They have lost 43 of their last 52 games after not scoring more than two runs in their last game — and they have lost 21 of their last 22 games after not scoring more than one run in their last game. Additionally, Arizona has lost 17 of their last 20 games after losing two in a row to a National League West rival. They managed only three hits on Sunday after scratching out just five hits in their loss on Saturday — and they have then lost 10 games in a row after not generating more than five hits in two straight games. They have also lost 6 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. And in their last 10 games after an off day, the Diamondbacks have lost 8 of these games. They stay on the road where they have lost 44 of their last 55 games with the Total set from 7 to 8.5. They have also lost 10 of their last 11 games at San Francisco against the Giants. They give the ball to Gallen who has a 1-6 record with a 4.62 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP in 13 starts this season. The right-hander sees his ERA and WHIP rise to 5.10 and 1.40 marks in his six starts on the road. He has a 6.89 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP in his last three starts — and he comes off a season-high 109 pitches in his last outing at home against the Giants last Wednesday. Arizona has lost 8 of their last 9 games with Gallen pitching with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range — and they have lost 5 in a row with Gallen pitching with the Total set at 8 or 8.5. He will likely struggle against this Giants team that is scoring 5.6 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games. They have won 39 of their last 55 games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have won 22 of their last 32 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. San Francisco has won 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have won 14 of their last 17 games after an off day. The Giants return home where they have won 39 of their last 54 home games when favored. They counter with Wood who has a 9-3 record with a 4.03 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP in 19 starts. The left-hander has had two subpar outings in a row but the deeper sabermetrics are still bullish with his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.77 and 3.68 respectively. Wood has been more effective at home where he owns a 3.82 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .210 in 11 starts as compared to his 4.35 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, and .277 opponent’s batting average in eight starts. San Francisco has won 12 of their last 15 games when priced as a money line favorite at -110 or higher with Wood on the mound — and they have won 8 of their last 10 games at home with him pitching as a -110 or higher favorite. He should pitch well against this slumping Diamondbacks team that is scoring only 3.7 Runs-Per-Game with a .219 Batting Average, .286 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .590.
FINAL TAKE: Arizona has failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line in 34 of their last 44 losses when priced as a +145 or higher money-lien underdog this season. San Francisco has covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 13 of their 18 victories this season when priced as a money-line favorite at -155 or higher. With the Giants priced well above my -150 price threshold, let's lower the investment price by taking the -1.5 Run-Line. 25* MLB National League West Run-Line of the Year with the San Francisco Giants (962) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (961) listing both starting pitchers Alex Wood and Zac Gallen. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-09-21 |
Marlins v. Padres -1.5 |
Top |
3-8 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the San Diego Padres (904) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Miami Marlins (903) listing both starting pitchers Joe Musgrove and Zach Thompson. THE SITUATION: San Diego (64-49) has won four of their last six games after their 2-0 win against Arizona yesterday. Miami (47-65) has lost three straight games — and nine of their last twelve — after a 13-8 loss at Colorado yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PADRES MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: San Diego has won 6 of their last 9 games after shutting out a divisional rival in their last game. They have won 8 of their last 11 games after playing a low-scoring game where no more than two combined runs were scored. The Padres have won 30 of their last 43 games at home in Petco Park. They turn to Musgrove tonight who has a 7-7 record along with a 2.87 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP in 21 starts (22 games). Musgrove is enjoying a big year due to his increased use of his cutter and slider which account for over half his pitches. He deployed those two pitches just 30.6% of the time last year. The lefty did hit a rough patch in July, but he appears to have righted the ship. In his last three starts, Musgrove has only allowed three earned runs — he has a 1.42 ERA and a 0.84 WHIP with 20 strikeouts in those 19 innings. Musgrove sees his ERA lower to 2.52 mark in his 11 starts at home in Petco — and the Padres have won 6 of their 8 home games with Musgrove pitching with the Total set at 7 to 8.5. He should have success tonight against this Marlins team that scores only 3.9 Runs-Per-Game on the road with a .230 batting average, .291 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .674. Miami is 24th in MLB in weighted On-Base Percentage on the road against left-handed pitching. The Marlins have lost 5 of their last 7 road games against left-handed starting pitchers — and they have lost 17 of their last 22 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. Miami has lost 5 of their last 7 games after a loss — and they have lost 6 of their last 8 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. They have also lost 8 of their last 12 games after a game where at least 15 combined runs were scored. The Marlins stay on the road where they have lost 37 of their last 53 games — and they have lost 19 of their last 26 road games as a money-line underdog. They counter with Thompson who is 2-4 with a 2.53 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP in nine starts. The sabermetrics are not encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.22 and 4.17 moving forward. It has been a surprising season for the 27-year-old journeyman who was drafted in the fifth round in 2014. He is wildly overperforming his career 4.11 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in the minor leagues. The regression may already be coming with his velocity down 1.5 miles-per-hour in his last start. In his last three starts, he has a 3.68 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. Miami has lost 7 of their 8 games this season with Thompson pitching as a money-line underdog. He faces a Padres team that is scoring 5.1 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven contests with a .276 batting average, .340 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .766. San Diego has won 19 of their last 28 games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have won 6 of their last 7 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The Padres will be motivated tonight with the memory of losing their last two games to the Marlins in Miami on July 24th and 25th. San Diego has won 4 straight games when playing with double revenge.
FINAL TAKE: The Padres have covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 26 of their 32 victories this season when priced as a money-line favorite at -155 or higher. Miami has failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line in 15 of their 20 losses this season when priced as a +145 or higher money-line underdog. 25* MLB National League Run-Line of the Year with the San Diego Padres (904) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Miami Marlins (903) listing both starting pitchers Joe Musgrove and Zach Thompson. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-08-21 |
White Sox -1.5 v. Cubs |
Top |
9-3 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 7:09 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Chicago White Sox (979) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Chicago Cubs (980) listing both starting pitchers Dylan Cease and Zach Davies. THE SITUATION: The White Sox (65-46) has won the first two games in this series and four of their last six after their 4-0 viceroy over the Cubs yesterday. The Cubs (52-60) have lost three in a row and five of their last six contests.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WHITE SOX MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: The White Sox have won 11 of their last 13 games on the road in August going back to last season. They have won a decisive 40 of their last 57 road games when favored — and they have won 8 of their last 11 road games against teams with a losing record. They give the ball to Cease who has an 8-6 record with a 3.92 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in 22 starts this season. He comes off six shutout innings in his last outing against Kansas City where he struck out 11 batters last Tuesday. The sabermetrics are bullish on the right-hander with his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.68 and 3.85 moving forward. The White Sox have won 4 of their last 5 road games with Cease pitching as a favorite priced at -110 or higher. He should pitch well against this Cubs team that scores only 3.9 Runs-Per-Game against right-handed starting pitchers with a .216 batting average, .284 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .660. The Cubs have lost 5 in a row at home against right-handed starting pitchers. The Cubs have lost 6 of their last 8 games after a loss — and they have lost 9 of their last 12 games after dropping the first two games of a series. The Cubs have lost 5 games in a row at home — and they have lost four in a row as a home underdog. They counter with Davies who has a 6-8 record with a 4.79 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP in 23 games this season. The sabermetrics are not encouraging with his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 5.58 and 5.24 respectively. His teams have lost 8 of their last 11 games when he is starting in games with the Total set at 10 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: The White Sox have covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 22 of their 28 victories this season when a money-line favorite priced at -155 or higher — and they have covered the point spread in 22 of their 25 wins this year when a money-line favorited priced at -160 or higher (as they are tonight). The Cubs have failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line in 5 of their last 7 losses when priced at +145 or higher since mid-June. With the White Sox priced above my -150 price threshold, let’s lower the investment price by taking the -1.5 Run-Line. 25* MLB Sunday Night Television Run-Line of the Year with the Chicago White Sox (979) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Chicago Cubs (980) listing both starting pitchers Dylan Cease and Zach Davies. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-04-21 |
Royals v. White Sox -1.5 |
Top |
9-1 |
Loss |
-130 |
1 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Chicago White Sox (974) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Kansas City Royals (973) listing both starting pitchers Lucas Giolito and Carlos Hernandez. THE SITUATION: Chicago (63-44) has won three of their last four games with their 7-1 victory over the Royals last night. Kansas City (45-60) has lost four in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WHITE SOX MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Chicago has won 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. They have also won a decisive 50 of their last 68 home games when favored. The White Sox were big winners at the trade deadline as they addressed their two biggest needs at second base and in the bullpen. Chicago acquired Cesar Hernandez to be their new second baseman — and they added both Ryan Tepura and then Craig Kimbrell to bolster a pen that already had Liam Hendricks successfully closing games. They also recently got back slugger Eloy Jimenez back from the disabled list after he was out for the entire first half of the season. They send out Giolito for this contest. The right-hander has an 8-7 record with a 3.67 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP in 21 starts. Strangely, he has struggled against the Detroit Tigers this season as they have owned him with 16 runs scored in the 24 2/3 innings he has pitched against them in five starts. Take away the Tigers and Giolito has a 3.14 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP in his 16 other starts. In his 10 starts at home. Giolito has a 3.14 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .197. And in his 11 starts at night, he has a 2.60 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .191. He should have success against the Royals who are scoring only 2.4 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .182 batting average, .221 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .530 during that span. They are also just 27th in the MLB in a weighted On-Base Percentage of .279 on the road against right-handed starting pitchers. Kansas City has lost 36 of their last 51 games after a loss — and they have lost 22 of their last 27 games after losing at least three in a row. They have only scored two runs in their last three games — and they have lost 11 of their last 14 games after not scoring more than one run in two straight games. Additionally, the Royals have lost 37 of their last 51 road games as an underdog — and they have lost 6 of their last 7 games with the Total set in the 7 to 8.5 range. They counter with Carlos Hernandez who is 2-1 with a 4.98 ERA and a 1.51 WHIP in 34 1/3 innings this season. In his 11 innings on the road, the lefty has a 6.55 ERA and 1.91 WHIP. He faces a White Sox team that scores 5.5 Runs-Per-Game against left-handed starting pitchers with a .260 batting average, .333 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .767 this season. Chicago has won 35 of their last 46 games against left-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: The White Sox have covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 20 of their 26 victories this season when a money-line favorite priced at -155 or higher. The Royals have failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line in 14 of their 20 losses this season when priced as a money-line underdog at +145 or higher. 25* MLB American League Central Run-Line of the Year with the Chicago White Sox (974) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Kansas City Royals (973) listing both starting pitchers Lucas Giolito and Carlos Hernandez. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-01-21 |
Mexico v. United States |
Top |
0-0 |
Push |
0 |
1 h 41 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Mexico (234201) minus the goal-line versus the USMNT (234202) in the Finals of the CONCACAF Gold Cup. THE SITUATION: Mexico (W4-D1-L0) reached the Finals of the Gold Cup with a 2-1 win against Canada on Thursday. The USMNT (W5-D0-L0) advanced to the Finals with their 1-0 victory against Canada in the Semifinals on Thursday. This match will be played at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas.
REASONS TO TAKE MEXICO MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: El Tri will have revenge on their minds after losing to the United States in the CONCACAF Nations League by a 3-2 score on June 6th. The respective rosters of both teams were the proverbial A-teams — so that was a big triumph for the United States. The top-ten players from that roster are now gone and training with their European professional teams. Manager Gregg Berhalter is using this tournament to build depth. Only Kellyn Acosta who started in the match with Mexico in June may be in the starting XI tonight. The Stars and Stripes have been pretty good in this tournament — with the benefit of playing on home soil. But they were shaky against Qatar on Thursday. The Maroon dominated play for much of that game while outshooting the Yanks by an 18-6 margin. It was a goal from Gyasi Zardes in the 86th minute to win that match. Six of the Americans’ ten goals were against Martinique, the minnows of this tournament. Winning this event will be icing on the cake for Berhalter. For this Mexico team, manager Gerardo “Tito” Martino has described winning this tournament as “an obligation” given the level of excitement in the country. While El Tri does not have some of their top players like Chicharito Hernandez and Raul Jimenez are not on this roster, Martino probably has assembled the B+ team to defend their 2019 Gold Cup title. Since the loss to the Americans in June, El Tri did not concede a goal until the 57th minute against a game Canada side on Thursday.
FINAL TAKE: This match will be played in Las Vegas at the new Allegiant Stadium — but the USMNT will not retain a familiarity edge since none of them have ever played on that pitch. I am not sure if the crowd advantage will be overwhelmingly pro-USA either with many fans expected to cheer for Mexico. The El Tri roster is more experienced and more talented than what the Yanks have in this tournament. 25* CONCACAF Gold Cup Match of the Year with Mexico (234201) minibus the goal-line versus the USMNT (234202). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-30-21 |
Phillies v. Pirates OVER 9 |
Top |
0-7 |
Loss |
-105 |
0 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Phillies (901) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (902) listing both starting pitchers Vince Velasquez and Will Crowe. THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (51-51) begins this series coming off an 11-8 victory against Washington yesterday. Pittsburgh (38-63) has lost four games in a row after a 12-0 loss to Milwaukee yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Phillies have played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Philadelphia has played 6 straight Overs in the opening game of a new series. They send out Velasquez who is 3-5 with a 5.54 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP in 16 starts (20 games). The right-hander particularly struggles on the road where he has a 6.17 ERA and a 1.63 WHIP in 35 innings. The Phillies have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total with Velasquez pitching with the Total set in the 9-9.5 range. Philadelphia has also played 5 straight road games Over the Total when favored. Velasquez faces a Pirates team that has played 7 straight Overs against right-handed starting pitchers. The Over is also 4-1-1 in Pittsburgh’s last 6 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Over is also 18-7-2 in the Pirates’ last 27 games after a loss. Furthermore, the Over is 5-0-1 in Pittsburgh’s last 6 games after scoring no more than two runs in their last game — and the Over is 4-0-1 in their last 5 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Over is 4-0-1 in the Pirates’ last 5 games at home. They counter with Crowe who is 2-5 with a 5.89 ERA and a 1.57 WHIP in 14 starts (15 games). The right-hander sees his WHIP rise to a 1.66 mark in his seven starts at home due in part to an opponent’s batting average of .281. His teams have played 7 straight Overs when Crowe is making a starting in the second half of the season.
FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia is hitting better as of late — they have a .259 Batting Average with a .337 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .810 in their last seven games. The Phillies have played 7 of their last 8 games on the road Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB National League Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Phillies (901) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (902) listing both starting pitchers Vince Velasquez and Will Crowe. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-29-21 |
Rockies v. Padres -1.5 |
Top |
0-3 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the San Diego Padres (962) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Colorado Rockies (961) listing both starting pitchers Joe Musgrove and Kyle Freeland. THE SITUATION: San Diego (59-45) has lost three of their last four games after their 10-4 loss to Oakland yesterday. Colorado (44-58) has lost four of their last five games after their 8-7 loss at Los Angeles against the Angels yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PADRES MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: San Diego has won 5 of their last 7 games after a loss by six or more runs — and they have won 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Padres have still won 26 of their last 36 games at home. They give the ball to Musgrove who is 6-7 with a 3.13 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP in 19 starts (20 games). The left-hander sees his ERA drop to a 2.83 mark in his ten starts at home in Petco Park. San Diego has won 5 of their 7 games at home this season with Musgrove pitching with the Total set in the 7 to 8.5 range. He should thrive against this Rockies team that is scoring only 3.1 Runs-Per-Game away from Coors Field with a .210 Batting Average, .278 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .601. Colorado has lost 28 of their last 33 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Rockies have also lost 13 of their last 15 games after a loss by just one run — and they have lost 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Colorado has played three straight Overs — but they have lost 20 of their last 25 games after playing at least two straight Overs. They give the ball to Freeland who has a 1-5 record along with a 4.85 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP in 11 starts. The right-hander sees his ERA rise to a 5.10 mark in his six starts on the road. The Rockies have lost 18 of their last 22 games with Freeland pitching as a road dog.
FINAL TAKE: San Diego has covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 8 of their last 9 victories when priced higher than -150 — and Colorado has failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line in 6 of their last 8 losses when priced as an underdog at +145 or higher. 25* MLB National League West Run-Line of the Month with the San Diego Padres (962) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Colorado Rockies (961) listing both starting pitchers Joe Musgrove and Kyle Freeland. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-29-21 |
Canada v. Mexico UNDER 2.5 |
Top |
1-2 |
Loss |
-135 |
3 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Canada (234523) and Mexico in the Semifinals of the CONCACAF Gold Cup. THE SITUATION: Canada (W3-D0-L1) reached the Semifinals with their 2-0 victory against Costa Rica in the Quarterfinals on Sunday. Mexico (W3-D1-L0) advanced from the Quarterfinals with their 3-0 victory against Honduras on Saturday. This match is being played at NRG Stadium in Houston.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Let’s not read too much into the offensive assault by El Tri against a La Selecta side that was missing a handful of players (including a few starters) from a COVID outbreak. El Tri has struggled to generate goals in this tournament with only four goals in their three Group Stage matches — including three goals against a Guatemala side that was one of the minnows in this tournament. Scoring looked to be the biggest challenge for manager Gerardo Martino’s side with Raul Jimenez training for his return to Wolverhampton in the English Premier League. Martino could have turned to Javier Hernandez — but his ongoing personal feud with Chicharito appears to have played a role in the 33-year old not being invited to compete. Perhaps Martino wanted to use this event to embrace his younger players? But the plan was thwarted somewhat in their opening when Napoli forward Hirving “Chucky” Lozano suffered a tournament-ending head injury. While the clinical scoring talent on this team is diminished, Mexico remains quite stout on defense. They have yet to surrender a goal in this tournament. El Tri has not allowed a goal in their last seven matches after losing to the USMNT in the Finals of the CONCACAF Nations Cup last month. Canada is far from full strength in its attack. Manager John Herdman has lost forwards Cyle Larin and Aho Akinola to injury — forcing him to call up Orlando City forward Tesho Akindele to the squad before the Quarterfinals. To compound matters, Vancouver White Caps forward Lucas Cavallini is suspended for this match after receiving his second yellow card of the tournament in the Quarterfinal against Costa Rica. The Canucks were already without their two best offensive players in Alphonso Davies and Jonathan David who resumed their training in Europe for their professional clubs, Bayern Munich and Lille. Herdman is likely to engage in defensive tactics with the hopes of eking out a low-scoring match — and he would happily take his chances with penalty kicks to resolve the match.
FINAL TAKE: Canada had allowed all three of their Group Stage opponents to score goals — but none of those teams registered more than once including the United States. They held Costa Rica to just five shots with none on target in what was likely a harbinger as to how they will attempt to play this match given their injuries. 25* CONCACAF Gold Cup Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Canada (234523) and Mexico (234524) in the Semifinals of the CONCACAF Gold Cup. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-26-21 |
Tigers v. Twins -1.5 |
Top |
5-6 |
Loss |
-100 |
1 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Minnesota Twins (914) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Detroit Tigers (913) listing both starting pitchers Michael Pineda and Matt Manning. THE SITUATION: Minnesota (42-58) has lost two games in a row after their 6-2 loss to the Los Angeles Angels yesterday. Detroit (47-54) has lost three straight games after a 6-1 loss in Kansas City on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TWINS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: It has been a disappointing season for Minnesota — but they have been playing better at home as of late. The Twins have won 5 of their last 7 games at home — and they have won 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with losing records. Minnesota has also won 8 of their last 11 home games with the Total set in the 9-10.5 range. They give the ball to Pineda who is 4-5 this season with a 3.93 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in 13 starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 3.75 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in nine starts as compared to his 4.42 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP in four starts on the road. Pineda’s teams have won 16 of their last 20 games when he is attempting to stop a losing streak. Detroit has lost 5 of their last 6 games after a loss — and they have lost 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. Additionally, the Tigers have lost 10 of their last 15 games after not scoring more than one run in their last game. And Detroit has lost 19 of their last 28 games this season after losing three of their last four games. The Tigers were riding a seven-game winning streak before getting swept in their three-game series in Kansas City over the weekend. But all those seven games were at home — Detroit has lost 7 straight games on the road all by more than one run. They have also lost 10 of their last 13 road games with the Total set at 10 or higher. They counter with Matt Manning who is 2-3 with a 5.79 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP in six starts. The right-hander has a bright future — but he is struggling at the major league level in his rookie season. His ERA skyrockets to an 8.56 mark in his three starts on the road. The Tigers have lost all 3 road games that Manning has started this season. He faces a Twins team scoring 4.7 Runs-Per-Game against right-handed starting pitchers — and Minnesota has won 4 of their last 5 home games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Minnesota is looking to avenge a 7-0 loss in Detroit last Sunday that completed their getting swept by the Tigers in Comerica Park. The Twins have won 20 of their last 31 games when avenging a loss — and they have won 6 of their last 8 games when playing with revenge from getting shutout in a loss. With Minnesota priced above my -150 price threshold, let’s lower the investment cost by taking the -1.5 Run-Line. The Twins have been priced as a money-line favorite at -155 or higher twenty times this season — and only three times did they win by just one run. 25* MLB American League Central Run-Line of the Month with the Minnesota Twins (914) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Detroit Tigers (913) listing both starting pitchers Michael Pineda and Matt Manning. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-25-21 |
Jamaica +1.25 v. United States |
Top |
0-1 |
Win
|
50 |
2 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Jamaica (234245) plus the goal-line versus the USMNT (234246) in the Quarterfinals of the CONCACAF Gold Cup. THE SITUATION: Jamaica (W2-D0-L1) comes off a 1-0 loss to Costa Rica in their final Group Stage match on Tuesday. The USMNT (W3-D0-L0) earned a perfect record in the Group Stage with their 1-0 win against Canada last Sunday. This match will be played at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.
REASONS TO TAKE JAMAICA PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Stars and Stripes were not really tested before the match with Canada last week in this tournament. Haiti and Martinique were not competitive in the Group Stage. And while Team USA scored in the opening minute against the Canucks, they looked shaky on defense in the second half of that match. The Americans also lost a key member of their backline when captain Walker Zimmerman left the game in the first half with an injury that will keep him out the rest of the tournament. Zimmerman was the 2020 MLS Defensive Player of the Year — so his absence is a big loss. Manager Gregg Berhalter was already relying on younger players for this event with the key players from the group that won the CONCACAF Nations League title last month now training for their professional leagues in Europe. This is a B team competing for the Gold Cup — there is no Christian Pulisic, Giovanni Reyna, Zack Stefan, and Josh Sargent on this roster. The top ten players on the roster, as rated by the transfer market analytics, are not playing in this event. Team chemistry and cohesion — as well as experience in international competitions — remain question marks. Jamaica has an experienced roster made up of a core of players that have reached three straight Semifinals in the Gold Cup. While they lost their last match to Costa Rica last week, manager Theodore Whitmore was able to rest players since they had already qualified for the Knockout Stage. The Reggae Boyz get Bobby Reid back for this match after being on the COVID list — he has recent English Premier League experience. Wing Leon Bailey plays for Bayer Leverkusen. Forward Corey Burke, defenseman Alvas Powell, and keeper Andre Blake all star for Philadelphia Union in the MLS.
FINAL TAKE: Jamaica will be confident they can pull the upset against this roster of Americans after their recent experiences against them in this tournament. They lost to the Stars and Stripes by a 3-1 score in the 2019 Gold Cup Semifinals only after Pulisic scored his second goal in the 87th minute. Pulisic is not playing today. The Reggae Boyz lost to the USMNT in the 2017 Semifinals by just a 2-1 score —and they upset them in the 2015 Gold Cup Semifinals by a 2-1 score. They may not win, but they should keep it close with extra time a distinct possibility. 25* CONCACAF Gold Cup Quarterfinals Match of the Year with Jamaica (234245) plus the goal-line versus the USMNT (234246). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-25-21 |
White Sox v. Brewers -148 |
Top |
3-1 |
Loss |
-148 |
1 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 7:08 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the Milwaukee Brewers (980) versus the Chicago White Sox (979) listing both starting pitchers Brandon Woodruff and Lance Lynn. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (58-41) has won five of their last seven games after their 6-1 victory against the White Sox last night. Chicago has lost three in a row including the first two games of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BREWERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Milwaukee has won 26 of their last 33 games after a win — and they have won 23 of their last 29 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Brewers have also won 21 of their last 26 games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range — and they have won 5 in a row against teams with a winning record. They send out Woodruff who is 7-4 with a 2.04 ERA and a 0.83 WHIP in 19 starts. Milwaukee has won 15 of their last 17 home games with Woodruff pitching at night. He should fare well against this White Sox team that is scoring only 3.4 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven contests with a .211 Batting Average, .276 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .675 in those games. Chicago has lost 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The White Sox have also lost 37 of their last 51 road games as an underdog — and they have lost 23 of their last 31 games on the road in Interleague play. Chicago has lost 9 of their last 12 games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Lance Lynn who is 9-3 with a 1.94 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP in 17 starts this season. While the right-hander has been almost unhittable at home with a 1.50 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .169 in 11 starts, those numbers rise to a 2.84 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .228 in six starts on the road. The sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.82 and 3.97 moving forward this season. And while he has not allowed more than one earned run in four straight starts, his teams have lost 10 of their last 12 games when Lynn is pitching after not allowing more than one earned run in two straight starts.
FINAL TAKE: The Brewers are swinging hot bats as they are scoring 6.3 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven contests with a .271 batting average, .350 On-Baser Percentage, and an OPS of .779. Milwaukee has won 16 of their last 21 games against right-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB Sunday ESPN Game of the Month with the money-line on the Milwaukee Brewers (980) versus the Chicago White Sox (979) listing both starting pitchers Brandon Woodruff and Lance Lynn. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-24-21 |
Cardinals v. Reds -1.5 |
Top |
3-5 |
Win
|
112 |
0 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Reds (908) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the St. Louis Cardinals (907) listing both starting pitchers Luis Castillo and Jake Woodford. THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (50-47) has won two of their last three games after their 6-5 victory over the Cardinals yesterday. St. Louis (49-49) had won five of their last six games before their loss last night.
REASONS TO TAKE THE REDS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Cincinnati has won 13 of their last 16 games at home — and they have won 24 of their last 33 home games with the Total set in the 9-10.5 range. They send out Castillo who is 3-10 with a 4.39 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP. The sabermetrics have been calling for regression after a disastrous start to the season. His SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.38 and 3.96 moving forward. Over his last seven starts, Castillo has a 1.41 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in 44 2/3 innings. He has struck out 44 batters over that span. He should continue to pitch well against this Cardinals team that scores only 4.1 Runs-Per-Game on the road with a .220 Batting Average, .285 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .669. St. Louis has lost 12 of their last 15 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. St. Louis has lost 10 of their last 14 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. They have also lost 15 of their last 20 games on the road. They counter with Woodford making his third career start tonight. The right-hander has a 2-1 record with a 4.06 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP in 31 innings this season. His ERA rises to a 4.76 ERA in his 17 innings on the road. The sabermetrics are not encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.63 and 5.00 respectively moving forward.
FINAL TAKE: Cincinnati scores 5.4 Runs-Per-Game at home with a .257 Batting Average, .331 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .779. The Reds have won 17 of their last 25 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. With Cincinnati priced above my -150 price threshold, let’s lower the investment price by taking the -1.5 Run-Line. 25* MLB National League Central Run-Line of the Month with the Cincinnati Reds (908) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the St. Louis Cardinals (907) listing both starting pitchers Luis Castillo and Jake Woodford. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-23-21 |
Pirates v. Giants -1.5 |
Top |
6-4 |
Loss |
-100 |
3 h 18 m |
Show
|
At 9:45 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the San Francisco Giants (960) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Pittsburgh Pirates (959) listing both starting pitchers Johnny Cueto and Chad Kuhl. THE SITUATION: San Francisco (61-35) has won three of their last four games with their 5-3 upset victory in Los Angeles against the Dodgers last night. Pittsburgh (36-60) has lost four games in a row after a 6-4 loss at Arizona on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: San Francisco was a +155 money-line underdog last night with their upset win against the Dodgers. The Giants have won 7 of their last 9 games after pulling off an upset victory against a divisional rival priced at +130 or higher. San Francisco has also won 15 of their last 20 games after a win — and they have won 20 of their last 27 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. They return home where they have won 38 of their last 55 games — and they have won 30 of their last 43 home games with the total set in the 7-8.5 range. They give the ball to Cueto who is 6-5 with a 4.01 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP in 15 starts. The right-hander has done his better pitching at home where he has a 3.21 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .254 in eight starts as compared to his 5.09 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .321. The Giants have won 7 of their last 9 home games with Cueto pitching with the Total set in the 8.5 to 10 range. He should pitch well against this Pirates team that scores only 3.2 Runs-Per-Game on the road with a .235 Batting Average, .293 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .652. Pittsburgh has lost 30 of their last 36 games after losing at least four games in a row. Additionally, the Pirates have lost 63 of their last 85 games on the road — and they have lost 14 of their last 18 road games with the Total set in the 8 to 8.5 range. They counter with Kuhl who has a 3-5 record with a 4.31 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP in 12 starts. The sabermetrics suggest those numbers are fortunate since both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 5.46 and 5.33 moving forward. The right-hander pitches better at home where he owns a 2.36 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .191 in five starts — but his ERA rises to a 6.07 mark along with a 1.55 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .245 in 7 starts on the road. The Pirates have lost 20 of their last 25 road games with Kuhl pitching with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range.
FINAL TAKE: San Francisco is scoring 5.2 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .254 Batting Average, .332 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .787. The Giants have won 22 of their last 30 home games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have won 10 of their last 14 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. With the price above my -150 price threshold, let’s lower the investment price with the -1.5 Run-Line option. 25* MLB National League Run-Line of the Month with San Francisco Giants (960) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Pittsburgh Pirates (959) listing both starting pitchers Johnny Cueto and Chad Kuhl. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-21-21 |
Twins v. White Sox -149 |
Top |
7-2 |
Loss |
-149 |
2 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Chicago White Sox (972) versus the Minnesota Twins (971) listing both starting pitchers Dylan Cease and Michael Pineda. THE SITUATION: Chicago (58-37) has won four of their last five games with their 9-5 win against the Twins last night. Minnesota (40-55) has lost five of their last six games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WHITE SOX WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Chicago rallied from a 5-4 deficit in the bottom of the eighth inning to win last night’s game. The White Sox should build off that momentum as they have won 10 of their last 13 games after a loss. Additionally, Chicago has won 6 of their last 7 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have won 23 of their last 34 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The White Sox have won a decisive 47 of their last 63 home games when favored — and they have won 21 of their last 29 home games played at night. They give the ball to Cease who is 7-5 with a 4.15 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP in 19 starts. The sabermetrics are encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.74 and 3.92 moving forward. The right-hander has been more effective at night where he owns a 2.15 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP with an opponent’s batting average of .199 in nine starts. The White Sox have won 7 of their last 8 games at home with Cease pitching as a favorite priced at -110 or higher. He should pitch well against this Twins team that is scoring 3.9 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .224 Batting Average, .309 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .700. Minnesota has lost 6 of their last 8 games on the road against right-handed starting pitchers. The Twins have lost 12 of their last 13 games after a game where their bullpen surrendered at least five runs. Minnesota has also lost 8 of their last 11 games after a loss — and they have lost 17 of their last 25 games after losing at least four of their last five contests. Additionally, the Twins have lost 8 of their last 11 games after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. They counter with Pineda who is 3-5 with a 4.11 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP in 12 starts. The sabermetics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.26 and 4.29 moving forward. The Regression Gods may have already appeared since he has been saddled with an 8.10 ERA and a 1.92 WHIP in his last four starts. The right-hander has not been as effective on the road where he has a 5.40 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .278 in three starts. He pitches for the first time since July 7th — and his teams have lost 10 of their last 14 games when he is pitching with at least seven days between starts. The Twins have lost 10 of their last 12 games on the road — and they have lost 24 of their last 33 road games as an underdog. Minnesota has also lost 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record — and they have lost 9 of their last 10 games in Chicago against the White Sox.
FINAL TAKE: Chicago is scoring 5.4 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .800 OPS over that span. The White Sox have won 8 of their last 10 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB American League Central Game of the Month with the money-line on the Chicago White Sox (972) versus the Minnesota Twins (971) listing both starting pitchers Dylan Cease and Michael Pineda. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-20-21 |
Suns v. Bucks UNDER 222.5 |
Top |
98-105 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (511) and the Milwaukee Bucks (512) in Game Six of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Phoenix (65-28) has lost three games in a row in this series after their 123-119 upset loss at home to Milwaukee as a 3.5-point underdog on Saturday. Milwaukee (61-33) can win the NBA Championship tonight with their 3-2 series lead.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The high-scoring game I expected for Game Four was a game late. The Suns not only blew a 16-point lead at the end of the first quarter but also a 55.2% clip from the field which was the best shooting effort in their last five games. They made 13 of their 19 shots from behind the arc for a 68% shooting percentage of their 3s. But Phoenix allowed Milwaukee to make 57.5% of their shots in what was the worst defensive effort in their last 25 games. Chris Paul declared after their Game One victory that they want to play with pace in this series. In hindsight, that appears to be a mistake. The Bucks are winning this series with rebounding and transition points — and more possessions fuel that edge for them. I will not be surprised if the Suns look to slow the pace of this game down to take the advantage of the veteran leadership Paul provides them in close games. As it is, Phoenix has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Suns have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after losing two games in a row. They go back on the road where the Under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 road games as an underdog. Milwaukee’s 57.5% shooting from the field was the best shooting effort in their last 87 contests going all the way back to January 4th. It was the second-best offensive performance of the season. They nailed 14 of their 28 shots from behind the arc. I am expecting a visit from the Regression Gods — especially with the pressure of closing out the series to win the title. These Game Sixes are tricky for a home team with a 3-2 series lead. While they have a bird in the hand on a potental seventh game, there often is stress and anxiety of feeling the urgency to end things in front of their home fans. The Bucks should play better on defense after letting Phoenix make more than 50% of their shots in two straight games — and they have played all 3 games Under the Total this season after allowing their last two opponents to shoot at least 50% from the field. The Under is also 4-1-1 in Milwaukee’s last 6 games when playing with two days of rest. They return home where the Under is 8-3-1 in their last 12 home games — and the Under is 9-1-1 in their last 11 home games against teams with a winning record on the road.
FINAL TAKE: The Under is 6-2-1 in the last 9 meetings between these two teams when playing in Milwaukee. 25* NBA Tuesday Night O/U Special Feature with Under the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (511) and the Milwaukee Bucks (512). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-18-21 |
Red Sox v. Yankees UNDER 9.5 |
Top |
1-9 |
Loss |
-107 |
2 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 7:08 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (927) and the New York Yankees (928) listing both starting pitchers Martin Perez and Jameson Taillon. THE SITUATION: Boston (56-37) has lost five of their last seven games after a 3-1 loss to the Yankees in a rain-shortened six-inning game yesterday. New York (47-44) has won six of its last nine contests.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Under is 5-1-1 in the Red Sox’s last 7 games after a loss — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games on the road Under the Total after a loss. Additionally, Boston has played 4 straight Unders after not scoring more than two runs in their last game. Additionally, the Under is 5-0-1 in the Red Sox’s last 6 games on the road. Martin Perez makes the start with his 7-5 record along with a 4.04 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP in 17 starts. The left-hander struggles at home at Fenway Park with the Green Monster where he has a 5.80 ERA, 1.80 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .326. But when Perez pitches on the road, he has a 2.04 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .238 in 7 starts. His teams have played 9 straight Unders when he is pitching on the road priced in the +125 to -125 price range. He faces a depleted Yankees’ lineup hit by COVID that has Aaron Judge and Gio Urshela — and Luke Voit hit the disabled list earlier this week with a knee injury. New York is scoring only 2.7 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .204 batting average, .287 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .627. New York has played two straight Unders — and they have then played 15 of their last 24 games Under the Total after playing at least two straight Unders. The Yankees bullpen got yesterday off with Gerrit Cole pitching all six innings — and they pitched only three innings on Friday. New York has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when their bullpen has not pitched more than three innings in two straight games. They counter with Taillon who is 4-4 with a 4.90 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP in 17 starts. The right-hander has been much better at home in Yankee Stadium where he has a 3.59 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and .223 opponent’s batting average in 10 starts as opposed to his 7.20 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, and .298 opponent’s batting average on the road. His teams have played 6 of their last 9 home games Under the Total when he is pitching as a favorite priced up to -150. He faces a Red Sox team that is scoring only 4.1 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .238 batting average, .308 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .731. Boston has managed only five hits in each of their last two games — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after not generating more than five base hits in two straight games. The Red Sox have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against left-handed starting pitchers. New York has played 5 straight Unders against teams winning at least 60% of their games — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as a favorite.
FINAL TAKE: Boston has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams from the AL East — and the Yankees have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against divisional rivals. These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing in Yankee Stadium. 25* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (927) and the New York Yankees (928) listing both starting pitchers Martin Perez and Jameson Taillon. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-17-21 |
Bucks v. Suns UNDER 219 |
Top |
123-119 |
Loss |
-101 |
7 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (509) and the Phoenix Suns (510) in Game Five of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (60-33) has won the last two games of this series to even things at 2-2 after their 109-103 victory as a 4.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Phoenix (65-27) has lost four of their last eight games.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bucks rallied to win Game Four despite allowing the Suns to make 51.3% of their shots. That was the worst defensive effort in Milwaukee’s last 15 games. The Bucks neutralized Phoenix’s shooting edge by creating more scoring opportunities from offensive rebounding and forcing turnovers. Milwaukee held a +12 edge in turnovers by forcing 17 turnovers and only coughing the ball up five times. The Bucks have played 4 straight Unders after having a turnover edge of +10 or better in their last game. The Under is also 4-1-1 in their last 6 games when playing with two days of rest. Now Milwaukee goes on the road where the Under is 5-2-1 in their last 8 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better on their home court. The Under is also 9-3-2 in the Bucks’ last 14 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games overall. Phoenix lost Game Four despite that 51.3% field goal percentage which was the best shooting effort in their last four games. The Suns have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Phoenix did not cover the point spread in their last two losses in Milwaukee. They have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after losing two in a row — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games.
FINAL TAKE: I thought both teams would enjoy sharp offensive games in Game Four — and I was wrong on that front. The Suns’ 51.3% shooting percentage disguised their weak 7 of 23 (30%) clip from behind the arc. Milwaukee made only 40.2% of their shots — but they were saved by Phoenix being sloppy with the basketball and too often playing out of control. The Suns were simply playing too fast — and their likely correction to limit the turnovers that killed them is to slow the pace. With the winner of Game Five seizing control of the series, I expect teams to be nervy. The Bucks have played 4 of their last 5 Game Fives Under the Total. With the number still in the high-210s, expect a lower-scoring game. 25* NBA Saturday ABC-TV Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (509) and the Phoenix Suns (510). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-16-21 |
Cubs -145 v. Diamondbacks |
Top |
5-1 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 53 m |
Show
|
At 9:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Chicago Cubs (915) versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (916) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Hendricks and Madison Bumgarner. THE SITUATION: Chicago (44-46) lost two of their last three games of the All-Star Break after a 6-0 loss to St. Louis last Sunday. Arizona (26-66) lost three of their last four games heading into the break coming off a 7-4 loss at Los Angeles against the Dodgers on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CUBS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Chicago has won 4 of their last 5 games after an off day. They begin the second half of the season on the road where they have won 4 of their last 5 games when favored. The Cubs have won 19 of their last 28 games when favored, in general — and they have won 4 straight games against opponents that are not winning more than 40% of their games. They give the ball to Hendricks who is 11-4 with a 3.77 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in 18 starts. The right-hander struggled in April where he was 1-3 with a 7.54 ERA and a 1.75 WHIP — but he has been lights out since. Since the beginning of May, Hendricks has a 2.73 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP in 82 1/3 innings of work while issuing just 12 bases on balls. He has been more effective on the road where he has a 3.62 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in eight starts. The Cubs have won 4 straight road games with Hendricks pitching as a favorite. He should thrive against a Diamondbacks team that has scored only 3.6 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .221 batting average, .294 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .645 during that span. Arizona has lost 18 of their last 23 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Diamondbacks have lost 5 of their last 6 games after an off-day. Arizona has also lost 13 of their last 17 opening games to a new series. The Diamondbacks have lost 20 of their last 26 games at home. They counter with Bumgarner who is returning to action after being on the disabled list since the beginning of June. The left-hander is 4-5 this season with a 5.73 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in 12 starts. I worry about his return to action after shoulder issues. I also am concerned about how effective he will be without the use of foreign substances. Bumgarner has struggled for a year and a half before suddenly seeing a significant bump in his spin rate which helped him earn that seven-inning no-hitter in May. As it is, he has struggled at home where he has a 7.15 ERA with a 1.59 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .301 in five starts. His teams have lost 7 of their last 9 home games with Bumgardner pitching as a money-line underdog priced at +125 to +175. He faces a Cubs’ team that is scoring 4.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .276 batting average, .327 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .734 over that span.
FINAL TAKE: Arizona has lost 48 of their last 54 games as a money-line underdog. With the Cubs priced at or below my -150 price threshold, let’s attack. 25* MLB National League Road Warrior of the Month with the money-line on the Chicago Cubs (915) versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (916) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Hendricks and Madison Bumgarner. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-15-21 |
United States v. Martinique UNDER 3.75 |
Top |
6-1 |
Loss |
-107 |
4 h 40 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between the USMNT (234257) and Martinique (234258) in the CONCACAF Gold Cup. THE SITUATION: The USMNT (W1-D0-L0) comes off a 1-0 win against Haiti in their opening match in this competition on Sunday. Martinique (W0-D0-L1) looks to rebound from a 4-1 loss to Canada in their opening match in Group B play on Sunday. This match will be played at Children’s Mercy Park in Kansas City, Kansas.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Manager Gregg Berhalter chose an inexperienced starting XI on Sunday — and he will likely continue with that approach tonight against the small Caribbean nation. Berhalter’s goal is to help establish more reliable depth for the Stars and Stripes to call upon as they continue their World Cup qualifying matches for Qatar next fall. And the teams’ best players like attacking midfielder Christian Pulisic, striker Josh Sargent, and midfielder Giovanni Reyna are not on the roster given their professional responsibilities for their European professional league training. This roster only began training together last week — so chemistry and cohesion in the attack may take some time to develop. The Stars and Stripes loan goal on Sunday was from defender Sam Vines may his first start in international competition — and it was against a shorthanded Haiti side missing five players after a COVID outbreak on the team. Attacker Paul Arriola had to leave that match with a hamstring injury after 14 minutes into the contest — so I really do not know about the attacking talent that Berhalter will have at his disposal. Berhalter wants his team to press and control possession — and this helps for them to overwhelm lesser opponents. They have now generated clean sheets in seven of their last ten matches on home soil — and they have conceded only four times in those ten matches. Martinique scored first in their 4-1 loss to Canada but that was from a miscue by the Canucks that afforded Emmanuel Riviere that scoring chance. Les Matinino was playing for the first time since November of 2019 given the pandemic and their limited resources. In their final two home-and-home matches against Honduras in the CONCACAF Nations League in the fall of 2019, they only scored one time — but they conceded just twice. Martinique’s loss to Canada was just their second defeat in their last five matches — and they only lost that one match to Honduras in their five CONCACAF Nations League contests. Manager Mario Bocaly will have his team play cautiously — and what his team lacks in international competition, they make up for in cohesion since most play domestically in Martinique.
FINAL TAKE: Canada is a potent attacking side — so the four goals that Les Matinino allowed may speak more about the Canadiens than it does about Martinique’s defensive quality. They should play better with a match now under their belt against hostile competition for the first time in 20 months. Expect a lower-scoring match. 25* CONCACAF Gold Cup Group B Total of the Year Under the Total in the match between the USMNT (234257) and Martinique (234258). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-14-21 |
Mexico v. Guatemala UNDER 3.5 |
Top |
3-0 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Mexico (234249) and Guatemala (234250) on Group A play in the CONCACAF Gold Cup. THE SITUATION: Mexico (W0-D1-L0) comes off a 0-0 draw Trinidad and Tobago in their opening match on Saturday. Guatemala (W0-D0-L1) lost to El Salvador in their opening match by a 2-0 score on Sunday. This match will be played at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas, Texas.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Mexico peppered Trinidad and Tobago with 30 shots in that opening match on Saturday — but only seven were on target. Manager Gerardo Martino lost one of his best offensive players in that match with Hirving “Chucky” Lozano suffering a head injury that will keep him out for the rest of the tournament. El Tri is already without their best striker in Raul Jimenez who remains out after suffering a significant head injury playing for Wolverhampton in the English Premier League in the fall. Mexico may not have the firepower — and the cohesion in their attack — to score more than three goals in this match. But El Tri will likely earn their fifth straight clean sheet. Mexico has not allowed a shot on target in three straight matches. Guatemala was given a second chance to compete in this tournament when Curacao had to drop out the day before the event started because of a COVID outbreak. Los Chapines had lost their final qualifying match to compete in this tournament in a heartbreaking 10-9 loss via penalty kicks after a 1-1 score with Guadeloupe on July 6th. Guatemala played El Salvador tough on Sunday with that match being scoreless until La Selecta scored their first goal in the 81st minute. Interim manager Rafael Loredo will have his team park the bus — this team had not allowed a team to score more than one goal against them since a 2-0 loss to Paraguay in June 2019. Furthermore, Los Chapines have allowed only three goals in their last 12 matches across all competitions. They have a good goalkeeper in Nicholas Hagen who has five clean sheets himself in 2021.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams played in a friendly on September 30th with Mexico winning by a 3-0 score. That seems the worst-case scenario score for the Guatemalans who have gained in chemistry and cohesion from their summer experiences. El Tri has a sketchy recent past in second-round matches in the Group Stage of the Gold Cup with only one win and two 0-0 draws. Expect a lower-scoring match. 25* CONCACAF Gold Cup Group A Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Mexico (234249) and Guatemala (234250). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-14-21 |
Suns v. Bucks OVER 220 |
Top |
103-109 |
Loss |
-105 |
44 h 57 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (507) and the Milwaukee Bucks (508) in Game Four of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Phoenix (65-26) looks to bounce-back from their 120-100 loss on the road to the Bucks as a 4.5-point underdog on Sunday. Milwaukee (59-33) has three of their last five games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Suns scored their fewest points on Sunday in their last five games. After scoring 102 points in Game Five of the Western Conference Finals against the Los Angeles Clippers, they responded by scoring 130 to close out that series in Game Six. Chris Paul and Devin Booker combined to make only two of their 11 shots from behind the arc in Game Three. Phoenix has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point spread loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Suns have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a double-digit loss. Paul commented after Game One that his team wants to push the pace — and they should be rested with the extra day off between games. The Over is 47-23-1 Phoenix’s last 71 games when playing with two days of rest. Furthermore, the Over is 12-5-1 in the Suns’ last 18 games on the road — and the Over is 4-1-1 in their last 6 road games as an underdog. Phoenix has also played 32 of their last 52 games Over the Total when the Total is set at 220 or higher. Milwaukee has played 21 of their last 31 games Over the Total after a win on their home court — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a win at by double-digits. Returning home was what the Bucks players not named Giannis Antetokounmpo needed to jump-start their shooting. Kris Middleton and Jrue Holiday combined to make 14 of their 28 shots including 8 of their 17 shots from behind the arc. The Over is 3-0-1 in Milwaukee’s last 4 games at home against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. The Over is also 16-4-2 in the Bucks’ last 22 games against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: Phoenix has played 5 straight Over the Total when playing with revenge from a loss by 20 or more points. The Over is 6-0-1 in the last 7 games between these two teams — and I expect this to be the wildest game yet in this series since it remains critical for the Bucks to win the game. 25* NBA Playoff Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (507) and the Milwaukee Bucks (508). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-11-21 |
Suns v. Bucks -4 |
Top |
100-120 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Milwaukee Bucks (506) minus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (505) in Game Three of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (58-33) returns home down 0-2 in this series after losing Game Two by a 118-108 score as a 4.5-point underdog on Thursday. Phoenix (65-25) has won four of their last five games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKS MINUS THE POINTS: Milwaukee only made 45.2% of their shots on Thursday which was the worst shooting effort in their last three games. The Bucks made only 9 of their 31 shots from behind the arc. Now Milwaukee returns home where they are making 48.6% of their shots including 38.2% of their 3-point shots. Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday struggled in Game Two as they combined to make only 12 of their 37 shots from the field. Both players — along with the Bucks’ role players — usually play better back on their home court. Milwaukee has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after losing two of their last three games. The Bucks have played four straight Overs — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after playing at least four straight games Over the Total. Milwaukee returns home where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games — and they have covered the point spread in a decisive 40 of their last 63 home games with the Total set in the 220s. The Bucks have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Phoenix made 48.9% of their shots in Game Two — but it was their nailing 20 of their 40 shots from behind the arc that really made the difference. The Suns have an effective field goal percentage of 57.3% in this series — and they are outperforming their expected effective field goal percentage of 53.2% in the first two games. The Regression Gods should make an appearance to level things out a bit. Phoenix has covered the point spread in three straight games going back to their Game Six win to close out the Western Conference Finals against the Los Angeles Clippers. The Suns have failed to cover the point spread in 30 of their last 45 games after covering the point spread in three straight games. And while Phoenix has played four straight Overs, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after playing at least four straight Overs.
FINAL TAKE: I have seen some analytics that projected that Milwaukee should have won Game Two by a 116-104 score based on expected points from the shot quality of both teams. While I take that data with a grain of salt, we are going to win more of our bets than we lose in the long run when we are on the right side of that data. The Bucks are in this series — and they should have more of their shots fall (while seeing more of the Suns' shots not fall). Milwaukee has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 third games in an NBA playoff series under Mike Budenholzer. 25* NBA Sunday ABC-TV Game of the Year with the Milwaukee Bucks (506) minus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (505). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-11-21 |
Nationals v. Giants -1.5 |
Top |
1-3 |
Win
|
109 |
0 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the San Francisco Giants (910) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Washington Nationals (909) listing both starting pitchers Kevin Gausman and Erick Fedde. THE SITUATION: San Francisco (56-32) has won three straight games as well as six of their last eight after their 10-4 win against the Nationals yesterday. Washington (42-46) has lost three straight games and eight of their last ten.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: San Francisco should build off their momentum to close out the first half of the regular season before the All-Star Break. They have won 12 of their last 15 games after a win — and they have won 20 of their last 26 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Giants have won 37 of their last 51 home games when favored. They give the ball to Gausman who has an 8-3 record with a 1.74 ERA and a 0.80 WHIP in 17 starts. The right-hander has a microscopic 0.60 WHIP in six home starts fueled by an opponent’s batting average of .124. San Francisco has won 7 of their last 9 games with Gausman pitching in a day game. He should fare well against this Nationals team that has lost 5 of their last 6 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. Washington has lost 5 of their last 7 games after a loss — and they have lost 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. They counter with Fedde who is 4-5 with a 4.53 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP in 12 starts. The right-hander sees his ERA rise to a 4.65 mark in his six starts on the road. The Nationals have lost 6 of their last 9 games with Fedde pitching with the Total set from 7 to 8.5. He will likely struggle against a Giants team that has won 21 of their last 29 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. San Francisco is scoring 5.6 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .280 batting average, .364 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .825. Washington has lost 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have lost 8 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: Washington has not lost by a run in sixteen straight games when a money-line underdog priced at +145 or higher. San Francisco has won by only one run in four of their last seventeen games when priced as a money-line favorite at -155 or higher. If we like the Giants in this game (and we do), then let’s lower the investment price. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break Run-Line of the Year with San Francisco Giants (910) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Washington Nationals (909) listing both starting pitchers Kevin Gausman and Erick Fedde. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-11-21 |
England v. Italy |
Top |
1-1 |
Push |
0 |
0 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing England (234125) minus the goal-line versus Italy (234126) in the Finals of the Euro 2020. THE SITUATION: England (W5-D1-L0) reached the Finals of the Euro 2020 with their 2-1 win against Denmark on Wednesday. Italy (W5-D1-L0) advanced to the Finals with their 4-2 penalty kick shootout win against Spain that resolved their 1-1 draw after 120 minutes of play on Tuesday. This match will be played at Wembley Field in London.
REASONS TO TAKE ENGLAND MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: While some have criticized manager Gareth Southgate for his starting XI selections, I think he has been brilliant in shaping this talented roster into a defensive-first group. Defensive tactics tend to be rewarded in international tournaments — and defense has been the Achilles’ heel for this group in their recent major tournaments. The Three Lions have only conceded one goal in this tournament — and they have yet to concede a Big Chance representing a scoring opportunity with a 35% or higher expected rate of return. They have allowed only 3.59 expected goals in this tournament which is the lowest mark in the event. After allowing a goal to Denmark in the 30th minute, England locked down the Danes to just two shots and a mere 0.3 expected goals in the second half. And while Southgate has been criticized for not doing enough to get the English attack going, they have generated 2.24 expected goals per match in their three Knockout Stage matches. Italy was outplayed by Spain according to the analytics with them losing the expected goals battle by a 1.74-0.78 xG margin. La Roja exposed a vulnerability of the Azzurri down the middle with their savvy veteran pair of center backs Leonardi Bonucci and Giorgio Chiellini being talented but both have lost a step or two. England has better finishing talent at forward with the likes of Harry Kane and the in-form Raheem Sterling (amongst an embarrassment of riches of talent). Italy was outstanding in the Group Stage — but they did benefit from a weak trio of competitors in Turkey, Wales, and a solid but unspectacular Switzerland side. They needed extra time against Austria before catching a break against Belgium in the Quarterfinals with them playing with Eden Hazard. Italy is also without left back Leonardo Spinazzola who suffered a ruptured Achilles against Belgium. Not only does Spinazzola important to their backline, but he played an important role in the Italian attack as a left wing.
FINAL TAKE: England has the advantage playing on their home soil — so they have a familiarity edge along with the home crowd and referees responding to the cheering fans. Ultimately, the talent on England’s roster is superior to that of Italy. The English Premier League outshines Serie A currently. And the Three Lions have been building to this moment since their Round of 16 finish in the 2016 Euro before reaching the Semifinals of the 2018 World Cup. Italy failed to qualify for the most recent World Cup. 25* Euro 2020 Match of the Year with England (234125) minus the goal-line versus Italy (234126). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-10-21 |
Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -1.5 |
Top |
1-22 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Dodgers (962) minus the 1.5 Run-Line versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (961) listing both starting pitchers Walker Buehler and Caleb Smith. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (54-35) has lost four of their last five games after losing to the Diamondbacks by a 5-2 score in the opening game of this series. Arizona (26-64) has won three of their last four games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DODGERS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Los Angeles has won 42 of their last 60 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Dodgers have also won 40 of their last 51 games against teams who are not winning more than 40% of their games. They send out Buehler who is 8-1 with a 2.49 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP in 17 starts. Buehler has been an effective stopper for the team as they have won 19 of their last 25 games with him mound looking to stop a losing streak. The Dodgers have also won 31 of their last 45 games with Buehler pitching as a home favorite. Break up Arizona! Their three wins in their last four games match the three wins they picked up in their previous 31 games. The Diamondbacks have lost 8 of their last 9 games after a win — and they have lost 4 straight games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. Arizona has also lost 20 of their last 26 games after scoring at least five runs in their last contest. They counter with Smith who is 2-5 with a 3.45 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in 70 1/3 innings. The deeper metrics are not as bullish on Smith who both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.28 and 4.84 moving forward. The Diamondbacks have lost 9 of their last 12 games with Smith pitching with the Total set at 8 or 8.5. Arizona has lost 46 of their last 52 games as an underdog — and they have lost 56 of their last 74 road games as a dog.
FINAL TAKE: With the Dodgers priced in the -300 range, they are well beyond my -150 price threshold. LA has been priced above -150 58 times this season. They have lost 21 of these games straight-up. But while they have won 37 of those games, 29 of those victories were by more than one run. So, if the Dodgers are going to win, they are going to win by more than one run — a 78.3% clip — at a much lower price. Arizona has been a money line underdog priced at +145 or higher 39 times — and they have lost by more than one run in 24 of those occasions for a 61.5% clip. They pulled the upset six times and lost by one run another nine times. Let’s bank on Buehler. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break NL West Run-Line of the Year with Los Angeles Dodgers (962) minus the 1.5 Run-Line versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (961) listing both starting pitchers Walker Buehler and Caleb Smith. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-10-21 |
Argentina v. Brazil OVER 2 |
Top |
1-0 |
Loss |
-103 |
1 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Argentina (234429) and Brazil (234430) in the Finals of the Copa America. THE SITUATION: Argentina (W4-D2-L0) advanced to the Finals of this tournament with their 3-2 victory from penalty kicks against Colombia on Tuesday after that match ended in a 1-1 score after regulation time. Brazil (W5-D1-L0) defeated Peru by a 1-0 score to reach the Finals on Monday. This match will be played at Maracana Stadium in Rio de Janeiro.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: These are the two highest-scoring teams in the tournament — and while both sides also have surrounded the fewest goals in this event, neither has played an opponent as explosive as they will tonight. I think both defenses will be exposed. Argentina only scored once against a counter-attacking Colombia side in the Semifinals — but they generated a healthy 2.45 expected goals (xG). La Albiceleste has scored 11 times in this event — but their xG rises to 15.92 for a robust 2.66 xG per match average. Lionel Messi leads the way with four goals and five assists. He is averaging 1.18 expected goal involvement per 90 minutes. I do not see Brazil blanking the Barcelona star even though he has yet to score a goal in his career against them. He has a good thing going with Inter Milan’s Lautaro Martinez who has scored in three straight matches. The Argentina defense is a bit shaky especially with the aging Nicolas Otamendi at center back. This is the first match in this tournament that La Albiceleste will be playing a team that is happy to play on their front foot, rather than embrace a cautious counterattack. Brazil deserved more in their 1-0 win against Peru after generating 2.57 xG. The Selecao has scored 12 times in this event while producing 17.85 xG for a 2.93 xG per 90 minutes average. Throw out the 1-1 draw with Ecuador since their manager, Tite rested starters in that third Group Stage match. In Brazil’s other five matches, they generated at least 2.5 xG in each contest. And while the Selecao has only conceded two goals, their expected goals allowed (xGA) is more than twice that at 5.15.
FINAL TAKE: While finals can often evolve into cagey, lower-scoring affairs, I suspect that this match may be lively. Messi is in as top-notch form as he has ever been playing for his national team — and he has a younger and more athletic supporting cast than he has had in recent years. Brazil is a powerhouse that has underachieved its metrics despite averaging 2.0 Goals-Per-Game. 25* Copa America Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Argentina (234429) and Brazil (234430). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-10-21 |
Yankees v. Astros OVER 8.5 |
Top |
1-0 |
Loss |
-104 |
6 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 7:15 PM on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (975) and the Houston Astros (976) listing both starting pitchers Gerrit Cole and Zack Greinke. THE SITUATION: New York (95-42) won the opening game of this series last night with a 4-0 victory. Houston has a two-game losing streak after winning their previous six games in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Yankees have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. New York has also won 24 of their last 34 games Over the Total on the road after winning four of their last five games. Additionally, New York has won 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. Cole gets the start with his 8-4 record along with a 2.91 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP in 17 starts. But the right-hander has struggled since MLB cracked down on the use of illegal substances. Cole’s spin rate is way down — and so are his numbers. In his last six starts since the start of June, Cole has a 5.00 ERA with only 38 strikeouts in 36 innings of work. And his teams have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total when he is pitching in July. Houston has played 7 of their last 9 home games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The Astros score 5.5 Runs-Per-Game with a .276 batting average, a .386 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .813. Houston has played 19 of their last 26 games Over the Total after winning six or seven of their last eight games. And while the Astros have played three straight Unders, they have played 6 straight Overs after playing at least three straight Unders. Houston has played 25 of their last 35 home games Over the Total with the number set at 7 to 8.5. They counter with Greinke who is 8-2 with a 3.64 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP in 18 starts. The right-hander has not been as effective at home in Minute Maid Park where he has been saddled with a 5.26 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, and .296 opponent’s batting average. The Astros have played 8 of their last 9 home games Over the Total with Greinke on the hill — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total with Greinke pitching at night. He faces a Yankees team that is scoring 4.7 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower.
FINAL TAKE: The Astros have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total when avenging an upset loss as a home favorite. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break Fox-TV Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (975) and the Houston Astros (976) listing both starting pitchers Gerrit Cole and Zack Greinke. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-08-21 |
Bucks +5.5 v. Suns |
Top |
108-118 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Milwaukee Bucks (503) plus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (504) in Game Two of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (58-32) looks to bounce back from their 118-105 loss on the road to the Suns as a 5-point underdog on Tuesday. Phoenix (64-25) has won three of their last four games to take a 1-0 lead in the series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKS PLUS THE POINTS: If there was a plus-side to Milwaukee’s 11-point loss, it was the return of Giannis Antetokounmpo who played 35 minutes and scored 20 points with 17 rebounds. The Bucks made only 45.5% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last three games. They also allowed Phoenix to make 46.6% of their shots, the worst opponent’s field goal percentage in their last three games. Even worse, the Suns generated an Offensive Rating of 118.0 in that game which was the fourth-highest opponent’s Offensive Rating Milwaukee has allowed in this postseason. Mike Budenholzer is every pundit’s whipping boy for not making the adjustments they see (or not doing it quick enough) — but the benefit of a seven-game playoff series is to experiment with different defensive schemes. What the Bucks’ pick-and-roll defense places as their top priority is not foul — not only to protect Antetokounmpo to keep him on the court but to also not give up easy free throws. This consideration is rarely mentioned by the ankle-biters. Budenholzer may be content to let Chris Paul once again settle for mid-range jumpers — the shot that these same-ankle bitters consider the worst shot in basketball since it is not a 3-pointer nor a high-percentage shot at the rim. Or, Budenholzer may have defensive stalwart Jrue Holiday play against Paul rather than Devin Booker in Game One. Or, Budenholzer may go back to the drop defense against the pick-and-roll with Brook Lopez playing a little bit higher up the court to challenge the mid-range shot — this was very effective against Trae Young after Game One of the Eastern Conference Finals. I am not sure what Budenholzer will do while acknowledging that he is a far better defensive coach than me (and his critics). Milwaukee has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. The Bucks have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when playing with one day of rest. Milwaukee should commit fewer personal fouls tonight — the Suns got to the free-throw line 26 times and made 25 of those shots from the charity stripe. The Bucks’ opponent’s free throw attempt to field goal attempt ratio of 16.3% is the lowest in the NBA. Phoenix generated a 29.6% FTA: FGA ratio in Game One — and they average 19 free throw attempts per game. The Suns will not likely have a +16 point edge from the free-throw line tonight. The Suns have played three straight Overs — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 23 games after playing at least three straight Overs. Having Holiday defend Paul may be the preferred adjustment for Budenholzer since Booker’s play has declined a bit as the postseason has moved on. The young star is averaging 23.3 PPG on just 35% shooting from the field and a 22% mark from behind the arc in his last six games. He is averaging 4.3 turnovers per game during that span. Booker’s challenge in this series is heightened with him having to defend either Khris Middleton or Holiday. The season-ending torn ACL injury to Dario Saric leaves the Suns a man-short moving forward. Deandre Ayton cannot play 48 minutes. He will be subbed for either Torrey Craig or Frank Kaminsky, but both present problems for head coach Monty Williams. Craig has played 199 minutes in the playoffs with an On/Off Differential of -12.4. The Suns were outscored by 10 points when he was on the court for Game One. Kaminsky has only played 29 minutes in the playoffs while posting a -3.5 On/Off Differential. Phoenix outscored their opponents by +14.1 points per 100 possessions with Saric on the court this season. He will be missed.
FINAL TAKE: Milwaukee has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 Games Twos in the NBA playoffs under Budenholzer. 25* NBA Thursday Night Special Feature with Milwaukee Bucks (503) plus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (504). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-06-21 |
Yankees v. Mariners +1.5 |
Top |
12-1 |
Loss |
-103 |
3 h 51 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Seattle Mariners (978) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the New York Yankees (977) listing both starting pitchers Justus Sheffield and Jameson Taillon. THE SITUATION: Seattle (45-40) has won four of their last five games after their 4-1 win against the Rangers on Sunday. New York (42-41) snapped a three-game losing streak with a 4-2 victory at home against the Mets on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MARINERS PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: Seattle has won 11 of their last 15 games after winning four of their last five games. The Mariners have won 7 of their last 9 games at home —and they have pulled an upset in 10 of their last 14 home games as an underdog. Seattle has won 9 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning record. They send out Sheffield who is 5-7 with a 5.88 ERA and a 1.71 WHIP in 14 starts. The left-hander has been more effective at home where he has a 5.11 ERA and a 1.51 WHIP. While those numbers are not great — the Mariners have won 12 of their last 17 home games with Sheffield on the mound. He faces a Yankees team that has lost 4 of their last 5 games against left-handed starting pitchers. New York has lost 5 of their last 7 games played after an off-day — and they have lost 5 openers to a new series. The Yankees have also lost 4 of their last 5 road games when favored. They counter with Taillon who is 3-4 with a 5.43 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP in 15 starts. The right-hander has been most effective at home in Yankee Stadium where he has a 3.59 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .223. But his five starts on the road, he has been hammered for an ERA of 11.12, a 2.12 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .385. The Yankees have lost 4 of their last 5 road games with Taillon on the hill.
FINAL TAKE: Taking the Mariners as a money-line underdog is a viable option, but I prefer taking the valuable +1.5 Run-Line since it is priced at below my -150 price threshold. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break Tuesday ESPN Run-Line of the Year with Seattle Mariners (978) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the New York Yankees (977) listing both starting pitchers Justus Sheffield and Jameson Taillon. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-06-21 |
Bucks v. Suns -5.5 |
Top |
105-118 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Phoenix Suns (502) minus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (501) in Game One of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Phoenix (63-25) comes off a 130-103 victory in Los Angeles against the Clippers as a 1-point favorite last Wednesday to win that series in six games. Milwaukee (58-31) has won two in a row and four of their last five after their 118-107 upset win in Atlanta as a 3.5-point underdog on Saturday to close out that series in six games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SUNS MINUS THE POINTS: Phoenix should build off their momentum rested and ready on their home court. The Suns have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread win. Phoenix is also 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a double-digit win — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a win by 10 or more points on the road. Additionally, the Suns have covered the point spread in 9 straight games after a double-digit win against a fellow Pacific Division rival. Phoenix has also covered the point spread in 4 straight games when playing with at least three days of rest. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 34 of their last 50 games — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Suns have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 19 home games when favored by up to six points. Milwaukee may not have Giannis Antetokounmpo for this game although he has been upgraded to questionable with the knee injury that kept him out of the final two games of that series. The Bucks won both games without Antetokounmpo — but this team could be in for a letdown now. Getting only two days of rest against a team with three extra days to rest and recuperate does not help — and the league did them no favors by moving the start of this series up two days. As it is, Milwaukee has failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 38 games after winning two in a row. They go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games as an underdog. They are also 13-27-1 ATS in their last 41 playoff games as an underdog. And in their last 14 opening games to a new playoff series when playing on the road, the Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of these games.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams last played on April 19th in Milwaukee with Phoenix upsetting the Bucks, 128-127, as a 3-point underdog. The Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games when avenging a loss by three points or less. 25* NBA Tuesday Night Special Feature with the Phoenix Suns (502) minus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (501). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-06-21 |
Colombia v. Argentina -0.5 |
Top |
1-1 |
Loss |
-111 |
0 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Argentina (234422) minus the goal-line versus Colombia (234421) in the Semifinals of the Copa America. THE SITUATION: Argentina (W4-D1-L0) has won four straight matches with their 3-0 victory against Ecuador in the Quarterfinals on Saturday. Colombia (W2-D1-L2) outlasted Uruguay by a 4-2 count in the penalty kick shootout after a scoreless match after regulation time in their Quarterfinals match on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE ARGENTINA MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Colombia pulled a surprising upset against Uruguay — but they are underachieving in this tournament. They limped into this tournament with two losses in World Cup qualifying matches — and they have now only won three of their last seven matches. They lost to Peru and settled for a scoreless draw against Venezuela in matches they were favored to win. They have only scored three times in their five matches. The starting XI missed their star midfielder James Rodriguez after he was left off the roster because of the calf injury that kept him out of the last two matches for Everton in the English Premier League. They managed only 0.61 expected goals against Uruguay on Saturday. They only generated 0.29 expected goals in their final Group Stage match against Brazil. Argentina is rounding into form with seven goals in their last two matches while allowing just one goal. Lionel Messi has scored four goals and assisted on four other goals in his five matches in this tournament. La Albiceleste has scored 10 times while conceding just twice — and they notched an impressive clean sheet against Uruguay, who is probably the third-best team in the tournament.
FINAL TAKE: Messi has still not led Argentina to a major championship — so he should be very motivated to lead his team to a title match with Brazil. 25* Copa America Semifinals Match of the Year with Argentina (234422) minus the goal-line versus Colombia (234421). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-06-21 |
Spain v. Italy OVER 2 |
Top |
1-1 |
Push |
0 |
1 h 42 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Italy (234117) and Spain (234118) in the Semifinals of the Euro 2020. THE SITUATION: Italy (W5-D0-L0) reached the semifinals of this tournament with their 2-1 win against Belgium on Friday. Spain (W3-D2-L0) defeated Switzerland by a 3-1 margin in the penalty kick shootout after that match was tied 1-1 after extra time on Friday. This match will be played at Wembley Stadium in London.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Italian National Team has long had the identity of being a defensive-oriented team — but manager Roberto Mancini has opened things up with his team this summer. The Azzurri have scored 11 goals in their five matches — and their expected goals of 11.27 indicate that they are meeting likely expectations regarding their scoring output. The Italians have scored at least two goals in four of their five matches. They lead all teams in this tournament in shot-creating actions. And while Italy had been riding a streak of over 1000 minutes without conceding a goal before Austria scored against them in the 114th minute in their Round of 16, the fact is that the Azzurri has allowed goals in their last two matches. In hindsight, perhaps the Italian defense was overrated a bit after a relatively easy group that included Turkey, Wales, and a solid Switzerland side. Italy conceded 1.86 expected goals against a Belgium team that was without Eden Hazard. Spain has scored 12 goals in their five matches — and their expected goals of 17.58 are most in the tournament. La Roja leads all teams in touches in the opponent’s penalty area, completed passes, and pass accuracy — and they are second in the event in shot-creating actions (to Italy). The Spanish defense has been shaky — they have allowed five goals in their last three matches. La Roja has conceded five goals in this tournament but their expected goals allowed rises to 7.50 xGA.
FINAL TAKE: The Italy backline lost one of its key players with left back Leonardo Spinazzola rupturing his Achilles’ tendon in the second half of the match with Belgium. These two teams have had the top two attacks in this event — and they will both play aggressively. Expect a higher-scoring match. 25* Euro 2020 Semifinals Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Italy (234117) and Spain (234118). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-05-21 |
Lightning -143 v. Canadiens |
Top |
2-3 |
Loss |
-143 |
6 h 60 m |
Show
|
At 8:08 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the money-line on the Tampa Bay Lightning (21) versus the Montreal Canadiens (22) in Game Four of the Stanley Cup Finals. THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (50-20-6) took a commanding 3-0 lead in the Stanley Cup Finals with their 6-3 victory. Montreal (36-28-12) hosts this game looking to avoid a sweep and force a fifth game back in Tampa Bay.
REASONS TO TAKE THE LIGHTNING WITH THE MONEY-LINE: I passed on the side play in Game Three and used that contest as a “wait and see” opportunity for Game Four. Montreal needed Game Three — and they were simply dominated. The Canadiens’ game is dependent on scoring first where they can then play defensively and lean on goalie Carey Price. They are 11-2 in the postseason when scoring first — but they have lost 6 of their 7 games when their opponent scores first. Montreal was trailing 2-0 in this crucial Game Three less than 3:30 minutes into the first period. The Canadiens are getting outplayed — and they have been outscored by a 14-5 goal margin. But the biggest difference has been the decline of play in Price. After the veteran goaltender has carried his team in the first three rounds of the playoffs, Price has not played well at all in this series. Besides allowing 13 goals, in the first three games of this series, he has a -6.2 saves below the expected number for the average goalie. Price has a .835 save percentage in this series after posting a .931 save percentage in Round One, a .941 save percentage in Round Two, and then a .933 save percentage in Round Three against Vegas. Maybe Montreal is tired? Maybe they are simply facing a team that is better against them? Maybe both. But I do not see the Canadiens picking themselves off the mat tonight. Montreal has lost 4 straight games after allowing at least five goals in their last game — and they have lost 13 of their last 19 games after playing a game where at least nine combined goals were scored. They surrendered two goals in the third period — and they have lost 16 of their last 25 games after allowing at least two goals in the third period. They are playing at home — but they have lost 13 of their last 17 games at home on a three-game losing streak. Tampa Bay is 15-2 when they score first in these playoffs — and they have three lines that can score the first goal in this game against a goalie in Price that is now lacking in confidence. They are scoring 4.67 Goals-Per-Game in this series. The Lightning have won 7 of their last 10 games after scoring at least five goals in their last game. Andrei Vasilevskiy has been the better goaltender in this series — and the entire playoffs. He has a 1.67 Goals-Against-Average and a .948 save percentage in this series — and he has a 1.94 GAA and a .938 save percentage in the postseason overall. Tampa Bay has won 6 of their last 8 road games when favored — and they have won 26 of their last 36 games in the playoffs when favored.
FINAL TAKE: The Lightning have won 14 of their last 16 meetings against the Canadiens — and they have won 5 of their last 6 games against them when playing in the Bell Centre in Montreal. Tampa Bay’s recent playoff experience should really help them tonight as they look to lift the Stanley Cup twice in a ten-month span. While there may be a fleeting thought about the positive benefit of losing this game to then win the Stanley Cup back at home in Game Five after not winning the Cup win fans in the stands last fall — but this is a too savvy a group to be foolish enough to give away games against a goaltender who can get on a hot streak again. 25* National Hockey League Game of the Year with the money-line on the Tampa Bay Lightning (21) versus the Montreal Canadiens (22). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-05-21 |
Peru v. Brazil OVER 2.75 |
Top |
0-1 |
Loss |
-125 |
0 h 26 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Peru (234417) and Brazil (234418) in the Semifinals of the Copa America. THE SITUATION: Peru (W3-D1-L1) reached the Semifinals of the Copa America 2021 by defeating Paraguay in the penalty shootout by a 4-3 score after that game ended in regulation at 3-3. Brazil (W4-D1-L0) defeated Chile in the Quarterfinals by a 1-0 score. This match will be played at the Olympic Stadium in Rio de Janeiro.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: These two teams played in their opening match in Group B play on June 17th — and Brazil scored four times in the 4-0 victory. Peru lacks talent on its backline. They have surrendered 10 goals in their five matches — and the expected goals allowed are 10.9 xGA. What was troubling about their Quarterfinals match with Paraguay was they surrendered their final two goals despite playing with a man advantage in the second half. La Blanquirroja is last of the eight teams to make the Quarterfinals in allowing shot creation actions in the final third of the pitch. Brazil only scored one goal in their Quarterfinals match with Chile but they were playing almost half that match down a man after Gabriel Jesus’ ill-advised feet-first leap with his cleats earned him a well-deserved red card at the 48th minute. Jesus is suspended for this match — which may be addition by subtraction given all the depth the Selecao has in their attack. Brazil has scored 11 times in their five matches — and their expected goals rise to 15.01 xG. They are second in the tournament for most passes into their opponent’s penalty area — and they lead all teams for touches in the final third. Neymar is averaging 0.92 expected goals per 90 minutes.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams played in Copa America 2019 final with Brazil winning by a 3-1 score. Expect a similar result tonight. Brazil has too much scoring firepower — and they will want to put on a show in front of their home fans. 25* Copa American Semifinals Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Peru (234417) and Brazil (234418). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-03-21 |
Bucks v. Hawks UNDER 217.5 |
Top |
118-107 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 8:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (561) and the Atlanta Hawks (562) in Game Six of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (57-31) took a 3-2 lead in this series with their 123-112 win at home against the Hawks as a 7-point favorite on Thursday. Atlanta (51-38) has lost three of the last four games in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bucks raced out to a 14-point lead at the end of the first quarter by scoring 36 points. 28 of those points were in the paint with Milwaukee catching Atlanta too lax with their interior defense. The Hawks tightened up on defense after that. The Under is 3-1-1 in the Bucks’ last 5 games after a double-digit win — and they have played 29 of their last 45 games Under the Total on the road after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Giannis Antetokounmpo has been declared out for tonight’s game — so it will be Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday carrying the offensive load again tonight. They both had big offensive games — Middleton scored 26 points with 13 rebounds and eight assists and Holiday scored 25 points with 13 assists and six rebounds. Brook Lopez also had his best game in the series with 33 points on 14 of 18 shooting. It is unlikely these four players are as effective tonight — especially back on the road in Atlanta. The Under is 5-1-1 in Milwaukee’s last 7 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home — and they have played 6 of their last 8 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Atlanta has played 4 straight Unders after a loss — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Hawks have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss. Atlanta returns home where they have played 17 of their last 24 home games Under the Total as a favorite — and they have played 4 straight home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, the Under is 23-9-1 in the Hawks’ last 33 games in the playoffs as an underdog. Trae Young is listed as questionable with the bone bruise in his foot — he is a game-time decision. I suspect he will try to play in this elimination game but expected him to be close to 100% is probably too optimistic.
FINAL TAKE: Atlanta has played 17 of their last 28 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a same-season loss. These two teams have also played 5 straight games Under the Total when playing in Atlanta. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (561) and the Atlanta Hawks (562). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-03-21 |
Bucks v. Hawks |
Top |
118-107 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 8:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Atlanta Hawks (562) minus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (561) in Game Six of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (51-38) looks to stave off elimination tonight after dropping Game Five in this series on the road against the Bucks by a 123-112 score as a 7-point favorite on Thursday. Milwaukee (57-31) has won three of the last four games in this series to take a 3-2 lead in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HAWKS MINUS THE POINTS: Trae Young is listed as questionable with the bone bruise in his foot — he is a game-time decision. I suspect he will try to play in this elimination game but expected him to be close to 100% is probably too optimistic. But his supporting cast should play better tonight. Atlanta has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. And while they have only covered the point spread once in the last four games in this series, the Hawks have covered the point spread in 7 straight games at home after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 28 games — and they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 21 home games when favored. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, Atlanta has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 playoff games when favored. Giannis Antetokounmpo has been declared out for tonight’s game — so it will be Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday carrying the offensive load again tonight. They both had big offensive games — Middleton scored 26 points with 13 rebounds and eight assists and Holiday scored 25 points with 13 assists and six rebounds. Brook Lopez also had his best game in the series with 33 points on 14 of 18 shooting. It is unlikely these four players are as effective tonight — especially back on the road in Atlanta. The Bucks raced out to a 14-point lead at the end of the first quarter by scoring 36 points. 28 of those points were in the paint with Milwaukee catching Atlanta too lax with their interior defense. The Hawks tightened up on defense after that. The Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 27 games after winning four of their last five contests. They go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games as an underdog. Milwaukee has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games in the playoffs as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: The Bucks have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games when playing at home and avenging a double-digit loss. 10* NBA Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the Atlanta Hawks (562) minus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (561). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-03-21 |
England -1 v. Ukraine |
Top |
4-0 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing England (234133) minus the goal-line versus Ukraine (234134) in the Quarterfinals of the Euro 2020. THE SITUATION: England (W3-D1-L0) advanced to the Quarterfinals with their 2-0 victory against Germany on Tuesday. Ukraine (W2-D0-L2) defeated Sweden, 2-1, in the Round of 16. This match is being played on a neutral field at Stadio Olimpico in Rome, Italy.
REASONS TO TAKE ENGLAND MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: We had Sweden in that Round of 16 match with Ukraine. The Yellow-Blue took the lead with a goal from Oleksandr Zinchenko in the 27th minute before the Swedes tied the score 16 minutes later. Sweden outplayed Ukraine for most of the match but could not score the winning goal in regulation (ruining our play). But the Ukrainians seized the upper hand when Sweden was issued a red card in the 99th minute. Ukraine then generated 1.10 of their 1.98 expected goals with the man advantage with Artem Dovbyk scoring the winning at 120+1 minutes just before going to penalty kicks. Rather fortunate, once again. Ukraine's national soccer team continues to perpetuate a fraud. They won their Euro qualifying group despite an expected goal differential of just +0.9 xGD. And while they are unbeaten in World Cup qualifying matches, they have only won the expected goals battle in five of the eleven matches between those Euro and World Cup qualifiers before this tournament. They were near the bottom for total chances created of all the teams in the Euro qualifiers. They were fortunate to be placed in Group C for this event, widely considered the weakest of all six groups. In an opening 3-2 loss to the (now-eliminated) Netherlands, they only managed 0.70 expected goals but still scored twice. In that final loss to Austria, they managed only 0.36 xG. Their victory to give them three points was against North Macedonia who was perhaps the worst team in the tournament. They needed a draw against Austria to secure advancement, but only managed five shots and a mere 26 passes into the final third in a listless effort. The Yellow-Blue were outscored in Group Stage play and, once again, had a minus expected net goal differential of -0.8 xGD. Expected goals are not everything — but it is usually the highest-talented teams that outperform their xG. Expected goals assess average shot success, and the good players that are at the top of shot efficiency (the Lionel Messi’s of the world) have to play somewhere. But they are not on the Ukrainian National Team. Most of the roster for this team comes from the Ukrainian Premier League which the advanced metrics rank as the 12th best in the world. Midfielder Rusian Malinovskiy is a good player for Atalanta in Series A. Oleksandr Zinchenko plays a role for Manchester City — but he is asked to play out-of-position for the national team. Midfielder Andriy Yarmolenko stars for this team but is not one of the key players for West Ham United. This team did not qualify for the 2018 World Cup after losing five of their last six matches in the previous two Euros where they failed to advance out of the Group Stage. In short, the xG ain’t lying about this team. Entering this match, Ukraine is last of the teams in the quarterfinals by starting only 3.5 possessions per 90 minutes in the final third of the field. They are also last of the final eight teams by letting their opponents start 10.6 possessions per 90 minutes in their final third. England is loaded with talent. Manager Gareth Southgate has his team playing very cautiously — but that is why they have not allowed a goal yet in this tournament. Opponents are averaging just 0.08 expected goals per shot attempt, the third-lowest of the quarterfinalists They are allowing the third-fewest passes leading to a shot, and the fourth-fewest shot-creating actions. And while the Three Kings are not peppering the opposing keepers with many shots, they are averaging 0.18 expected goals per shot attempt, the highest mark of the eight teams in the quarterfinals. With wins over Germany, Croatia, and the Czech Republic, England has defeated three opponents that made the Knockout Stage and who would all probably defeat this Ukraine side.
FINAL TAKE: Take away the 21 minutes when they had the man advantage against Sweden along with their match against North Macedonia (perhaps the worst team in the tournament) — Ukraine has a -3.19 expected goal differential. They should finally get exposed this afternoon. 25* Euro 2020 ABC-TV Match of the Year with England (234133) minus the goal-line versus Ukraine (234134). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-02-21 |
Spain v. Switzerland OVER 2.5 |
Top |
1-1 |
Loss |
-105 |
0 h 24 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Spain (234101) and Switzerland (234102) in the Quarterfinals of the Euro 20220. THE SITUATION: Spain (W2-D2-L0) advanced to the Quarterfinals of the Euro 2020 with their 5-3 win after extra-time against Croatia in the Round of 16 on Monday. Switzerland (W2-D1-L1) upset France via a 5-4 win from penalty kicks after a 3-3 score in extra time in that Round of 16 match on Monday. This game will be played on a neutral pitch at Gazprom Arena in Saint Petersburg, Russia.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Spain has been the most dominant possession team in this tournament. They have held the ball for over 60% of the time in all four of their matches — and their 73% possession mark overall for the tournament is more than 15% ahead of the next closest team. This possession is allowing them to create tons of chances — they have 70 shots in their four matches. While this activity did not generate as many goals as they hoped for in their first two matches, they have scored 10 goals in their last two matches — eight combined goals in regulation when subtracting the two goals they scored they scored in the 30-minute extra time sessions against Croatia. But La Roja are vulnerable to the counter-attack when they do lose possession. While they have conceded only four goals, their expected goals allowed (xGA) jumps to 6.58 xGA. They may be giving up only 6.0 shots per match, but these shots are high quality. In their four matches, their opponents are averaging 0.27 expected goals (xG) per shot. In their Golden Generation run in winning the 2008 Euro, the 2010 World Cup, and the 2012 Euro, the Reds allowed only 0.06 xG per shot. And while they took a step back in the 2014 World Cup, 2016 Euro, 2018 World Cup cycle from a competitive standpoint, they still held their opponents to just 0.14 xG per shot. In this Euro, their opponents have managed to take 10 shots that had an expected goal success rate of 0.3 or higher. In those three major international tournaments from 2014-2018, Spain conceded only 14 shots overall with an xG rating of 0.3 or higher. The Spanish defense — playing without Barcelona’s Sergio Ramos in the middle for the first time since 2004 — is vulnerable. Switzerland thrives in the counter-attack. They are fourth in this tournament in passes that lead to shots. They are fifth for the most touches in the penalty area. They are fifth in most shot-creating actions. But the Swiss are vulnerable on defense. Italy scored three times against them with an xG of 2.50. France scored three times in regulation time while generating 3.50 xG. The Swiss National Team gave up 67 touches in the penalty area against France and Italy. Switzerland is last of the eight remaining teams in this tournament by allowing 1.85 goals per 90 minutes.
FINAL TAKE: Styles make fights — and this should be a higher-scoring affair. Spain will control possession once again — and they will pepper the Swiss with plenty of shot attempts. But Switzerland should score at least once on the counter-attack on this susceptible Reds defense that is learning how to live without Ramos leading them in the back. 25* Euro 2020 Quarterfinals Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Spain (234101) and Switzerland (234102). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-01-21 |
Hawks v. Bucks -2.5 |
Top |
112-123 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 49 m |
Show
|
At 8:35 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Milwaukee Bucks (542) minus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (541) in Game Five of their Eastern Conference Finals series. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (56-31) looks to bounce back from their 110-88 upset loss on the road against the Hawks as a 5.5-point underdog on Tuesday. Atlanta (51-37) had lost the previous two games in this series before Game Four.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKS MINUS THE POINTS: This is a war of attrition between two flawed basketball teams now facing the challenge of adjusting to significant injuries. I waited for the early afternoon injury updates to make my final calls on this game. Giannis Antetokounmpo was declared out for tonight’s game at 1:30 PM ET with his sore left knee. Trae Young is questionable with the bone bruise in his right foot — he will be a game-time decision. Even if he plays, it remains a separate question as to how effective he will be if less than 100%. The injury updates are only half the news that interests me — how this impacts the line movement is the other important dynamic to consider. The line is stabilizing with the Bucks favored in the 3-point range — and I think they win this game comfortably by more than one scoring possession. The supporting cast for Milwaukee is better than the supporting cast of the Hawks. Frankly, Khris Middleton may be the team’s best player — or, at least, their most reliable player on the offensive end of the court. He only made 6 of 17 shots on Tuesday — including missing all seven of his 3-pointers — in scoring just 16 points. I’m not saying he is Michael Jordan circa 1993. I think the Bucks are a system team that is well-coached by Mike Budenholzer — and the ankle-biting critics of Budenholzer wildly overrate how good this team (and Antetokounmpo) is in the postseason. Simply put, Middleton and this Bucks team should play better at home — especially after their embarrassing effort on Tuesday. I still think they rally to win Game Four in the second half if not for the Antetokoumpo injury — he left in the third quarter when they had cut their halftime deficit to just 10 points. Milwaukee only made 39.3% of their shots in Game Four which was the worst shooting effort in their last eight games. They only made 8 of their 30 shots (21%) of their shots from behind the arc. They should shoot better tonight — the Bucks shot 48.5% from the field on their home court with a 38.3% mark from behind the arc. Milwaukee should also tighten up on defense after allowing the Hawks to make 50.6% of their shots, the worst defensive effort in their last nine games. The Bucks have bounced back to cover the point spread in 39 of their last 63 games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after an upset loss by 15 or more points. Milwaukee has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to score at least 90 points. The last three games in this series have finished Under the Total — and the Bucks have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 home games after playing their last two games Under the Total. They have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 home games with the Total set in the 210 to 219.5 point range. And Milwaukee has covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 home games after winning two of their last three games. Atlanta’s secondary players stepped up knowing they would have to be at their best to compensate for the absence of Young. Their 50.6% shooting effort was their best performance in 10 games. And by holding the Bucks to a 39.3% field goal percentage, they played their best defensive game in their last 11. I suspect that a short-term boost cannot be sustained. And even if Young returns to the court tonight and is close to 100%, I suspect the Hawks to be flat tonight — even (or especially) against a team without Antetokounmpo. We see situations like this all the time in the regular season. As it is, Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after an upset win as a home underdog by at least 15 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after an upset win as a home underdog by 20 or more points. The injury issues for the Hawks do not end with Young. Clint Capela is questionable with an eye injury. And while Bogan Bogdanovich had his best game in his last seven contests after injuring his right knee by scoring 20 points, he had not scored more than nine points in his previous six games — so he may experience some regression tonight.
FINAL TAKE: Just as the remaining Atlanta players stepped up on Tuesday, I expect the remaining Milwaukee players to play better tonight — especially after being such a disappointment in Game Four. Like the Hawks knew they would be without Young in that game, the Bucks know the onus is on them with Antetokounmpo declared out hours before game-time. Milwaukee has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when avenging a loss by 20 or more points. 25* NBA Thursday TNT Game of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (542) minus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (541). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-30-21 |
Suns v. Clippers |
Top |
130-103 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Phoenix Suns (531) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Los Angeles Clippers (532) in Game Six of the Western Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Phoenix (62-25) looks to bounce back from their 116-102 upset loss to the Clippers as a 7.5-point underdog on Monday. Los Angeles (57-33) still faces elimination tonight, trailing 3-2 in the series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SUNS MINUS (OR PLUS) THE POINT(S): Phoenix allowed the Clippers to make 54.8% of their shots in Game Five which was the worst defensive effort in their last 21 games. The Suns have only suffered back-to-back losses four times all season — so a better effort should be coming tonight. Phoenix has covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Suns have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a loss by 10 or more points. They go back on the road where they have won five of their seven games in the postseason — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road. Phoenix has also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 road games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. They should get more out of Deandre Ayton tonight after the big man only attempted nine shots on Monday. He had been averaging 20.3 Points-Per-Game in the first four games in this series while tallying at least 18 points and 13 shot attempts in all four games. The Suns are 24-8-1 ATS in their last 33 games — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games in the playoffs when favored. Los Angeles had their best shooting effort in their last five games with their 54.8% shooting percentage on Monday. But the Clippers are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games after a double-digit win. Furthermore, Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after an upset win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after an upset victory by 10 or more points. We had the Clippers as an underdog in Game Five — but this remains a team dealing with more and more injuries. Losing Kawhi Leonard is very tough — and big man Ivica Zubac did not play due to a sprained MCL injury. He is questionable tonight. Paul George is carrying the team — but fatigue is becoming an issue. His 735 minutes played in the postseason are the most of any player in these playoffs. He logged in at least 40 minutes for the fourth straight time on Monday. Now Los Angeles returns home to the Staples Center where they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games with the Total set in the 210 to 219.5 point range.
FINAL TAKE: The Clippers have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games when motivated by revenge. Los Angeles has also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games when avenging an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss. 25* NBA Wednesday ESPN Game of the Year with the Phoenix Suns (531) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Los Angeles Clippers (532). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-29-21 |
Bucks v. Hawks UNDER 219 |
Top |
88-110 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 8:35 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (521) and the Atlanta Hawks (522) in Game Four of their Eastern Conference Finals series. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (56-30) took a 2-1 lead in this series with their 113-102 win as a 4.5-point favorite on Sunday. Atlanta (50-37) has lost the last two games in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Hawks were cruising with a 95-88 lead with just 7:20 left in the game. But Atlanta would only score seven points the rest of the game with their offense almost completely drying up after Trae Young’s inopportune ankle injury after accidentally stepping on the foot of a referee. He is questionable to play tonight. While my best guess is that he tries to play, the mystery is how effective will he be? His game is dependent on his lateral movement. He only took four shots in the fourth quarter, making one, with just three points, and Milwaukee outscoring Atlanta by 15 points when he was on the court. He was merely a decoy in the waning minutes of the game — that speaks loudly. The Hawks are looking more and more like a M*A*S*H unit. They are already hampered by Bogdan Bogdanovic and his knee injury. After scoring 16.4 PPG with 5.9 Rebounds-Per-Game in the first nine playoff games this postseason, he has not scored more than nine points nor pulled down more than four rebounds in his last six playoff games. After making only 3 of 16 shots on Sunday, Bogdanovic has made only 7 of his 28 shot attempts in this series. Atlanta has averaged only 96.5 PPG in the last two games in this series. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And while they have not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then played 9 of their last 10 games at home Under the Total after not covering the point spread in their last two games. Additionally, the Hawks have played 6 of their last 7 playoff games Under the Total in the playoffs. Milwaukee has covered the point spread in four of their last five games — and they have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. They stay on the road where the Under is 3-1-1 in their last 5 games when favored — and the Under is 8-2-1 in their last 11 road games when playing teams with a winning record at home. The Under is also 5-1-1 in their last 5 games when favored.
FINAL TAKE: Atlanta has lost the last two games by 34 and 11 points — and they have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total when avenging two straight games by 10 or more points. These two teams have also played 4 straight Unders when playing in Atlanta. 25* NBA Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (521) and the Atlanta Hawks (522). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-29-21 |
Ukraine v. Sweden |
Top |
1-1 |
Push |
0 |
1 h 18 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Sweden (234186) minus the goal-line versus Ukraine (234185) in the Round of 16 of the Euro 2020. THE SITUATION: Sweden (W2-D1-L0) enters the Knockout Stage after their 3-2 win against Poland last Wednesday. Ukraine (W1-D0-L2) comes off a 1-0 loss to Austria eight days ago on June 21st. This match will be played on a neutral pitch at Hampden Park in Glasgow, Scotland.
REASONS TO TAKE SWEDEN MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Ukraine's national soccer team continues to perpetuate a fraud. They won their Euro qualifying group despite an expected goal differential of just +0.9 xGD. And while they are unbeaten in World Cup qualifying matches, they have only won the expected goals battle in five of the eleven matches between those Euro and World Cup qualifiers before this tournament. They were near the bottom for total chances created of all the teams in the Euro qualifiers. They were fortunate to be placed in Group C for this event, widely considered the weakest of all six groups. In an opening 3-2 loss to the (now-eliminated) Netherlands, they only managed 0.70 expected goals but still scored twice. In that final loss to Austria, they managed only 0.36 xG. Their victory to give them three points was against North Macedonia who was perhaps the worst team in the tournament. They needed a draw against Austria to secure advancement, but only managed five shots and a mere 26 passes into the final third in a listless effort. The Yellow-Blue were outscored in Group Stage play and, once again, had a minus expected net goal differential of -0.8 xGD. Expected goals are not everything — but it is usually the highest-talented teams that outperform their xG. Expected goals assess average shot success, and the good players that are at the top of shot efficiency (the Lionel Messi’s of the world) have to play somewhere. But they are not on the Ukrainian National Team. Most of the roster for this team comes from the Ukrainian Premier League which the advanced metrics rank as the 12th best in the world. Midfielder Rusian Malinovskiy is a good player for Atalanta in Series A. Oleksandr Zinchenko plays a role for Manchester City — but he is asked to play out-of-position for the national team. Midfielder Andriy Yarmolenko stars for this team but is not one of the key players for West Ham United. This team did not qualify for the 2018 World Cup after losing five of their last six matches in the previous two Euros where they failed to advance out of the Group Stage. In short, the xG ain’t lying about this team. Sweden is solid if unspectacular. RB Leipzig midfielder Emil Forsberg is the real deal. The Blue and Yellow have two exciting young players in 17-year-old Alexander Isak and 20-year-old Dejan Kulusevski who play for Real Sociedad and Juventus. Manchester United’s Victor Lindelof is a quality center back. This is the Swedes’ sixth straight Euro. A scoreless draw with Spain is a quality result. Beating Slovakia and Poland are results much more impressive than a win against North Macedonia. This group has allowed only two goals in the Group Stage.
FINAL TAKE: The secret weapon of the Swedes in manager Janne Andersson who is on a five-year run with the national team including an improbable Quarterfinals run in the 2018 World Cup despite not having talisman Zlatan Ibrahimovic on the squad. Sweden is a hotbed for soccer talent, and Andersson is a tactical wizard. The Blue and Yellow will outclass the Yellow-Blue. 25* Euro 2020 Round of 16 Match of the Year with Sweden (234186) minus the goal-line versus Ukraine (234185). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-28-21 |
Clippers v. Suns UNDER 214.5 |
Top |
116-102 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 24 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (511) and the Phoenix Suns (512) in Game Five of their Western Conference Finals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (56-33) looks to stave off elimination tonight after losing Game Four by an 84-80 score on Sunday as a 1-point underdog. Phoenix (62-24) has won ten of their last eleven games to take the 3-1 lead in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Clippers only made 32.5% of their shots on Sunday — so was that an outlier or indicative of a downward trend? I suspect it is the latter. This Los Angeles team is tired — both physically from the every-other-day grind of the NBA playoffs and emotionally for having dug itself three straight 0-2 series holes. Without Kawhi Leonard, Paul George has taken the leadership role on offense — and he is averaging 40.9 minutes per game in the playoffs which is almost seven more minutes per game than his regular-season average. The Clippers are only making 34.8% of their 3-point shot attempts in this series, a far cry from their 41.8% clip during the regular season. Los Angeles has tired legs — and the Suns are forcing them to take more difficult shots from behind the arc. The Clippers have played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a loss at home against a Pacific Division rival. The Under is also 13-6-1 in their last 20 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, LA has played 4 straight Unders after failing to crack 90 points in their last game. The Clippers are averaging 120.8 points per 100 possessions in the postseason — but they are down to just 109.4 points per 100 possessions against Phoenix. Los Angeles has played 31 of their last 46 games Under the Total on the road as an underdog — and the Under is 35-17-3 in their last 55 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games. Phoenix has played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a win against a Pacific Division rival — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win on the road against a divisional rival. The Suns have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing with one day of rest. Phoenix only made 36.0% of their shots on Sunday which was the worst shooting effort in their last 41 games. The Suns’ 84 points came after them scoring just 92 points in Game Three — so this looks to be more than just a bad shooting night. Devin Booker does not look comfortable wearing the face mask to protect his broken nose — and he may be tiring from the playoff grind in his first postseason as a professional. Chris Paul still looks rusty after being out with COVID. Cameron Payne is slowed with an ankle injury — he played only 20 minutes on Sunday and made only 2 of his 8 shots from the field. Phoenix returns home where they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 8 of their last 11 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 meetings Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: The 164 combined points finished over 50 points below the 217.5 total set for Game Four. The empirical data suggests another lower-scoring game is coming. In games with the Total set at 210 or higher, when a team with a winning percentage in the 60 to 75% range faces a team with a winning record after a game that finished at least 36 points below the Total, this game finished Under the Total in 52 of the last 73 situations where these conditions applied. 25* NBA Western Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (511) and the Phoenix Suns (512). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-28-21 |
Royals v. Red Sox OVER 10 |
Top |
5-6 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Kansas City Royals (967) and the Boston Red Sox (968) listing both starting pitchers Danny Duffy and Garrett Richards. THE SITUATION: Kansas City (33-43) has lost five games in a row after their 4-1 loss to Texas yesterday. Boston (47-31) has won three in a row after their weekend sweep of the New York Yankees that culminated in a 9-2 victory yesterday afternoon.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Red Sox got their bats out yesterday with four home runs — and they have played 15 of their last 20 games Over the Total after banging our four or more home runs in their last game. Boston has played 20 of their last 28 games Over the Total after playing a game at home where they scored at least eight runs. And in their last 11 games after winning two games in a row at home against AL East foes, they have played 10 of these games Over the Total. But the reason why the Total for this game has been bet up to 11 is due to the trials that Garrett Richards is experiencing without the benefit of his usual substances that help him grip the baseball. Without the ability to use sunscreen — something that Richards says he has been using since his rookie year — he cannot get the grip on his curveball. Richards has abandoned even using what has been his best pitch — and that leaves him as an unusable pitcher when he is dependent on his below-average four-seam fastball. Richards has a 4-5 record this season with a 4.74 ERA and a 1.67 WHIP in 15 starts. In his last three starts since the MLB has cracked down on foreign substances like suntan lotion, Richards has an ugly 9.82 ERA and a 2.55 WHIP. Even without these new circumstances, Richards was a starting pitcher I was looking to fade. His SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 5.02 and 4.79 moving forward. And he has struggled at Fenway Park with a 6.46 ERA and a 2.11 WHIP along with a .333 opponent’s batting average in five starts. Boston has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total in June with Richards starting. The Red Sox have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total at home with the Total set at 11 or higher. Kansas City scores 4.4 Runs-Per-Game against right-handed starting pitchers — and the Over is 5-1-2 in their last 8 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Royals have not hit a home run in four straight games — but they have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total after not hitting a home run in two straight games. And while Kansas City has scored one run in their last two games, they have played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total after not scoring more than two runs in two straight games. They counter with Danny Duffy who is 4-3 with a 1.81 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP in eight starts (nine games). The veteran left-hander’s great start was interrupted by a left flexor strain that put him on the shelf for six weeks. He is being eased back into the rotation — so no more than 50 or 60 pitches from him are expected tonight. Even without taking into account his injury which may impact his effectiveness moving forward, his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 3.65 and 3.84. The Royals bullpen will be asked to pitch at least half this game — and that group has a 6.60 ERA and a 1.79 WHIP in the last seven games.
FINAL TAKE: Boston scores 5.1 Runs-Per-Game at home with a .266 batting average, .320 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .756. The Over is 3-1-1 in the Red Sox’s last 5 games against left-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB American League Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Kansas City Royals (967) and the Boston Red Sox (968) listing both starting pitchers Danny Duffy and Garrett Richards. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-28-21 |
Switzerland v. France UNDER 2.5 |
Top |
3-3 |
Loss |
-145 |
0 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Switzerland (234169) and France (234170) in the Round of 16 of the Euro 2020. THE SITUATION: Switzerland (W1-D1-L1) reached the Knockout Stage with their 3-1 win against Turkey in their last Group Stage match last Sunday. France (W1-D2-L0) comes off a 2-2 draw with Portugal last Wednesday. This match is being played on a neutral pitch at Parken Stadium in Copenhagen, Denmark.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: France is the reigning World Cup champions — and they have some of the best-attacking talents in the world in Paris-Saint Germain’s Kylian Mbappe and Real Madrid’s Karim Benzema. But Les Bleus are a defensive-first team that prefers to generate offense on their counter-attack. This has been the recipe for success for manager Didier Deschamps in their 2016 Euro campaign when they lost in the Finals to Portugal and their World Cup championship team in 2018. France has scored only four times in this tournament in three matches — and only two of the goals were from open play. They benefited from Mats Hummels' own goal in their victory against Germany. They also got a penalty kick goal from Mbappe against Portugal. Even their lone goal against Hungary came from a bad gaffe from the Hungarians. France has generated only 4.5 expected goals in their three matches. This group seems to lack a plan to break down their opponent if they settle into a defensive posture (outside of hoping their elite talent will somehow find a way to score). Deschamps does not advance his fullbacks into an advanced position to complement the attack. And Barcelona forward Ousmane Dembele is injured taking away a super-sub attacking option for Deschamps. But the French defense remains immaculate. They have only allowed one goal from open play from their three games. Cristiano Ronaldo scored both of his goals on Wednesday from penalty kicks. Getting whistled for a penalty with the ball inside the box just does not happen very often. Switzerland lacks the dynamic scoring talent that tends to draw penalties either. The Swiss National Team only scored one goal against Wales and Italy before netting three goals against a suspect Turkey side. Xherdan Shaqiri scored twice in their match against the Turks — but the “Alpine Messi” has declined as a talent as a 30-year-old and rarely starts for Liverpool at this point in his career. The Swiss generate plenty of shots — they generated the third-most shots in the group stage. The problem is that the quality of shots is low — and they lack the talent to execute on these low-probability shots. The Rossacrociati have the fourth-lowest expected goals per shots attempt with many of their shots coming from long distance. But Switzerland remains a solid defensive side that will play disciplined fundamental defense. While they allowed five goals in their three matches, the expected goals allowed dropped to 4.4 xGA.
FINAL TAKE: It will be difficult for Switzerland to score against France — their expected goals of just 0.25 xG against Italy was telling. But I do not see Les Bleus score more than two goals in this match. Styles make fights — and neither of these teams is comfortable playing on their front foot. Expect a lower-scoring match. 25* Euro 2020 Round of 16 Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Switzerland (234169) and France (234170). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-27-21 |
Bucks v. Hawks +4.5 |
Top |
113-102 |
Loss |
-100 |
8 h 53 m |
Show
|
At 8:35 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Atlanta Hawks (502) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (501) in Game Three of their Eastern Conference Finals series. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (50-36) looks to bounce back from their 125-91 loss to the Bucks as an 8-point underdog in Game Two on Friday. Milwaukee (55-30) has won three of their last four games and evened this series at 1-1.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Atlanta allowed the Bucks to make 52.1% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last six games. The Hawks have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 home games after a loss on the road. Atlanta has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. The Hawks started slow (or failed to thwart the inevitable fast start from Milwaukee after they lost home-court advantage in Game One) — after trailing by six points at the end of the first quarter, they were blitzed in the second quarter by a 43-17 margin to go into halftime by a 77-45 score. Atlanta has responded from a half-time deficit of 15 or more points by covering the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games next time out. Despite the lazy and tired reputation for never making adjustments, Bucks’ head coach Mike Budenholzer made yet another change in tactics in this game by having Brook Lopez confront Trae Young higher up the court on pick-and-roll switches. This took away Young’s floater game. The Hawks’ counter requires help from his teammates — but Young only had three assists. His nine turnovers were too many — but returning home should help where his teammates tend to shoot the basketball with more proficiency. Coaches become tactical geniuses or idiots often based on how often the shots finally fall. Atlanta shoots 46.4% from the field and makes 36.6% of their 3-pointers — and those numbers improve to a 47.1% mark along with a 38.7% clip from behind the arc when they are playing at home. Look for more from Kevin Huerter who scored only 21 combined points in the first two games of this series in Milwaukee. He poured in 44 points in the final two games in the Philadelphia series. The Hawks have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 26 games on their home court — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Milwaukee’s 52.1% shooting percentage was the best shooting effort in their last 14 games. But the Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a win at home by at least 20 points — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a victory by at least 30 points. Milwaukee has also failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games on the road after winning two of their last three games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 33 games after winning three of four. Now the Bucks go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 41 games with the Total set in the 220s — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher at home. Milwaukee has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games when favored.
FINAL TAKE: Atlanta has covered the point spread in 18 of their last 27 games when playing with revenge from a same-season loss. The Hawks have also covered the point spread in 21 of their last 33 games when avenging a loss of 30 or more points. 25* NBA Sunday TNT Game of the Year with the Atlanta Hawks (502) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (501). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-27-21 |
Portugal +0.25 v. Belgium |
Top |
0-1 |
Loss |
-135 |
1 h 43 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Portugal (234161) plus the goal-line versus Belgium (234162) in their Round of 16 match in the Euro 2020. THE SITUATION: Portugal (W1-D1-L1) reached the Knockout State of this tournament with their 2-2 draw with France on Wednesday. Belgium (W3-D0-L0) completed their perfect Group Stage with a 2-0 victory against Finland last Monday. This match will be played on a neutral pitch at the Estadio de La Cartuja in Seville, Spain.
REASONS TO TAKE PORTUGAL PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: Portugal is ranked 5th in the world by FIFA with the ELO Ratings that rely on head-to-head metrics confirming that fifth place world standing. I agree — and I think this is the best roster A Selecao has had since the 2010 World Cup when I started seriously handicapping international soccer. Portugal has won the 2016 Euro and reached the Knockout Stage of the 2018 World Cup. The quality of the national team’s roster was validated when they won the inaugural UEFA Nations League in 2019. Portugal survived the Group of Death with an impressive draw against the reigning World Cup champions in France in a result they had to have. The opened this tournament with an impressive 3-0 win against Hungary who later played France and Germany very tough. I don’t issue too many demerits for the Portuguese’s 4-2 loss to the Germans in their second Group Stage match. Germany is very good and they needed the win after losing their opening match to France. A Selecao’s path to the Knockout Stage was pretty much assured after they grabbed the three points from Hungary. With Cristiano Ronaldo who has been the talisman for this team since that 2010 World Cup, Portugal has one of the best players in the world still with tons of high-pressure experience. The nation is a hot bed of talent — and they have produced a new generation of great players like Atletico Madrid’s Joao Felix, Paris-Saint Germain’s Danilo, and Man City’s Ruben Dias. This roster is so loaded that Manchester United’s key midfielder Bruno Fernandes may not be in the starting XI — but he will be a super sub if veteran manager Fernando Santos needs scoring in the second half of the match. A Selecao also has some key veterans from the 2016 Euro run in Man City’s Bernardo Silva, Porto’s Pepe in back, and keeper Rui Patricio. Belgium is also loaded with talent amidst their golden generation — but they have yet to earn silverware and I have yet to see them triumph in a big match. They lost to France in the Semifinals of the 2018 World Cup after getting upset by an overmatched Wales team in the 2016 Euro. Eden Hazard has fitness issues — as it seems to have been the case for the last two years after transferring from Chelsea to Real Madrid. He has been a disappointment ever since (and the Blues never looked back after losing him after winning the Champions League last month). Kevin De Bruyne is sublime in the midfield — and he looks fit again — but their midfield group are not adept at forcing turnovers. The backline for the Red Devils is a vulnerability — their center backs are getting old and their wing backs are only average. Belgium looked great in the Group Stage — but Finland and Russia are weak opponents. Denmark looks better than I expected — but it is telling that the Red Devils lost the expected goals battle to the Danes playing without Cristian Eriksen by a 1.99-0.82 xG score. Portugal beat France in expected goals by a 2.36 to 1.81 xG margin.
FINAL TAKE: Portugal won the 2016 Euro despite only one victory in regulation time. I watched them over-and-over deploy defensive tactics to grind out low-scoring matches before Ronaldo would find a way to win — until the Finals when Ronaldo was injured but his teammates found a way to win. I think these defensive tactics will work against Belgium — they are the more experienced team in these matches. The Red Devils may win — but I suspect their route to victory is through extra-time or the final penalty kick tie-breaker and we will have covered at +0.25 goals (or pushed if you get a pick ‘em line) in regulation time. A Portugal upset win in regulation time is also very live for this one. 25* Euro 2020 Round of 16 ABC-TV Match of the Year with Portugal (234161) plus the goal-line versus Belgium (234162). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-26-21 |
Suns -1 v. Clippers |
Top |
84-80 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Phoenix Suns (591) minus the point(s) versus the Los Angeles Clippers (592) in Game Four of their Western Conference Finals series. THE SITUATION: Phoenix (61-24) had their nine-game winning streak in the postseason snapped in a 106-92 upset loss on the road against the Clippers as a 1-point favorite on Thursday. Los Angeles (56-32) has won five of their last seven games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SUNS MINUS THE POINT(S): Phoenix made only 38.9% of their shots on Thursday which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last 40 games. Chris Paul returned to the court after completing his COVID quarantine but he was rusty by making only 5 of 19 shots. Devin Booker made only 5 of 21 shots while looking uncomfortable wearing the mask he will have to get comfortable with after breaking his nose in the last game. To compound matters, Cameron Payne suffered a left ankle sprain which limited him to just 4:19 minutes played. Phoenix should bounce back tonight. They have only lost back-to-back games four times this season. Paul will be better with another two days of work to get back into his routine. Booker will get used to the mask — this has rarely been a hindrance for superstars once they get acclimated to the appliance (Rip Hamilton liked it so much that he kept wearing it after his face injury healed when he was leading Detroit Pistons to a title in the 1990s). Payne is listed as probable to play tonight. The Suns have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after an upset loss as a road favorite. Phoenix has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a double-digit loss. Additionally, the Suns have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 32 games after a point spread loss. And while Phoenix has not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not covering the point spread in their last two games. They stay on the road where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams winning at least 60% of their games at home. They are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games when favored. Los Angeles played their best game on defense in their last 12 games by holding the Suns to just 38.9% shooting. But the Clippers are just 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games after a double-digit win. Additionally, Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after an upset win as a home underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit win as a home dog. Despite the triumph in Game Three, there are too many cracks in the armor for this team in what is essentially in a pick ‘em situation tonight. Kawhi Leonard is not likely to play again this postseason. Paul George is carrying the load — but he is logging a ton of minutes. He leads all players in the postseason with 653 minutes played and he has been required to play at least 40 minutes in six of his last eight games. The canary in the coal mine may have been his six turnovers in the final 14 minutes of Game Three. Marcus Morris is playing hurt. DeMarcus Cousins is unplayable since he will get burned on the pick-and-roll. And the Clippers continue to have no answer for Deandre Ayton who is scoring 20.7 PPG on 73.8% shooting in this series. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 home games with the Total set in the 210 to 219.5 point range.
FINAL TAKE: Phoenix has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games when avenging a double-digit loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games when playing with revenge from an upset loss as a road favorite. 25* NBA Western Conference Game of the Year with the Phoenix Suns (591) minus the point(s) versus the Los Angeles Clippers (592). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-26-21 |
Austria v. Italy UNDER 2.5 |
Top |
0-0 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 49 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Austria (234153) and Italy (234154) in the Round of 16 in the Euro 2020. THE SITUATION: Austria (W2-D0-L1) clinched their involvement in the Knockout Stage with their 1-0 victory against Ukraine on Monday. Italy (W3-D0-L0) remained unscathed in the Euro 2020 with a 1-0 victory against Wales last Sunday. This match will be played on a neutral pitch at Wembley Stadium.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Italy has a long tradition of strong defensive tactics — and after not qualifying for the World Cup in 2018, manager Roberto Mancini has stepped in to re-establish the identity of La Nazionale. The Azzurri entered this tournament with seven straight clean sheets — and they held all three of their Group Stage opponents scoreless. Italy has now not allowed a goal in over 1000 minutes in international play. They have one of the best keepers in the world in Gianluigi Donnarumma who is supported by a handful of talented defenders who star in Serie A. Donnarumma was only required to make two saves in the first three games. The Blues allowed only four goals in their ten Euro qualifying matches as well. But scoring was the question mark for this team — and I am not buying the hype of the attack from this team despite them scoring seven goals in the Group Stage. That offensive output may speak more to the lack of quality of Turkey and Switzerland against whom they scored six times. Forward Ciro Immobile only scorers 12 goals in 45 games for his domestic team in Serie A this season. Austria is a dangerous opponent. They have one of the most talented midfields in this tournament with RB Leipzig’s Marcel Sabitzer and Konrad Laimer and Wolfsburg Xaver Schlager. Manager Franco Foda also has a jack-of-all-trades talent in David Alba who played left-back for Bayern Munich but has played in the midfield or left wing for his national team. Alba was poached by Real Madrid earlier this year — he is the wild card talent in this match. Das Team will play conservatively with the hopes of scoring on the counter-attack. They ranked second in the Group Stage by forcing turnovers in 38% of their pressures on the press. Italy may be vulnerable here — their three Group Stage opponents did not top a turnover percentage over 28% with their press in the opening three matches. Throw out their 3-1 result against an overmatched North Macedonia. Austria did not score against the Netherlands — but they held the Dutch to just two goals despite playing on their home soil in Amsterdam. They held Ukraine to just 0.36 expected goals but only scored once in that match.
FINAL TAKE: I considered Italy underrated entering this tournament — but I suspect the pendulum has turned the other way with their 3-0 start with a +7 goal differential. The Azzurri benefited from an easy group — and they have not played an opponent with as much quality as these Austrians in perhaps three years when they played Portugal (unless Poland or the Netherlands are better competition?). The Italians also played all three of their Group Stage matches on home soil in Rome. I expect their defense to travel — but the attack will be exposed with La Nazionale likely playing more cautiously in this match. 25* Euro 2020 Round of 16 ABC-TV Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Austria (234153) and Italy (234154). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-25-21 |
Islanders v. Lightning UNDER 5 |
Top |
0-1 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 8:08 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Islanders (31) and the Tampa Bay Lightning (32) in Game Seven of their Stanley Cup Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: New York (43-28-8) forced a climactic seventh game in this series with their 3-2 victory in overtime on Wednesday. Tampa Bay (46-20-6) returns home to host this Game Seven having lost two of their last three games in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Islanders have played a decisive 41 of their last 63 road games Under the Total after a win or tie in their last game. They have played 15 of their last 24 games Under the Total after a win at home this season — and they have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a win at home by just one goal. New York has also played 33 of their last 52 games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games. The Islanders are outplaying the Lightning when playing at even strength. They have held them to only 7.67 High Danger Chances per game in this series — and they are scoring only 1.85 expected goals per game at five-on-five. Tampa Bay is thriving when they get on the power play. While their 29.4% success rate with the man-advantage in this series is below their 37.7% mark in this postseason, it is still well above their 23.1% success rate during the regular season. The Islanders were the least penalized team during the regular season. The referees tend to swallow their whistles in Game Sevens to not put undue influence on the game. There have been two games in this series that finished with more than five combined goals — and the Lightning had five and six power-play opportunities in both contests. In the other four games in this series, Tampa Bay was not on the power play more than twice for the entire game. New York has played 5 of their last 8 playoff games Under the Total when the series is tied — and they have played 3 of their last 4 playoff games when facing elimination. The Islanders have also played 23 of their last 35 road games Under the Total on the road. Tampa Bay has played 23 of their last 36 games Under the Total after losing two of their last three games. They may be without their leading scorer in the playoffs in Nikita Kucherov tonight after he was knocked out of the game early in the first period from a crosscheck that targeted the injured hip that kept him out of the entire regular season. Kucherov is the straw that stirs their drink on the power play from good to elite. He has five goals and a whopping 27 assists in the postseason. The Lightning have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing at home in closeout games.
FINAL TAKE: The Under is 3-1-2 in Tampa Bay’s last 6 opportunities to host the Islanders — and they have played 8 straight Game Sevens Under the Total. 25* NHL Stanley Cup Semifinal Playoffs Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New York Islanders (31) and the Tampa Bay Lightning (32). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-24-21 |
Golden Knights -132 v. Canadiens |
Top |
2-3 |
Loss |
-132 |
4 h 46 m |
Show
|
At 8:08 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the money-line on the Vegas Golden Knights (21) versus the Montreal Canadiens (22) in Game Six of the Stanley Cup Semifinals. THE SITUATION: Vegas (50-19-5) is on the brink of elimination in the playoffs after a 4-1 loss at home to the Canadiens on Tuesday. Montreal (35-25-12) has won ten of their last twelve games as they seized a 3-2 lead in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN KNIGHTS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: I am investing in Vegas tonight with full appreciation that this Canadiens team is good. General manager Mark Bergevin made some savvy offseason moves in bringing over Tyler Toffoli (the team’s leading points-scorer in the postseason), Josh Anderson (an absolute steal from Columbus), and the veteran forward Corey Perry. Midseason acquisitions of Eric Staal, Erik Gustafsson, and Jon Merrill added more veteran talent for depth and playoff experience. The absence of head coach Dominique Ducharme has not been as devastating because this group is loaded with veterans with playoff experience. This is a team built for the playoffs — and they demonstrated their potential by winning six of their first nine games before injuries and later COVID outbreaks wreaked havoc on their season. A condensed schedule down the stretch did not help matters as they made up for lost games to COVID in the early months of the year. But seeding — and home-ice — means little in the Stanley Cup playoffs. All the Canadiens needed was to get into the tournament. And now their elite goalie Carey Price has once again flipped the switch to demonstrate why he deserves to get paid over $10 million per year. This Montreal team has a profile that is similar to a Minnesota Wild group that gave the Knights in the regular season and playoffs — only with a better goaltender. That all said, I think beating this good Knights team for the fourth time in five games will be a challenge. The Canadiens have shortened their bench so much that they are using their top-line units at forward and defense over 80% of the time. Vegas remains committed to rolling four forward lines in a strategy that eventually wore down an outstanding Colorado team. Montreal has basked in the role of the underdog in this postseason with upset wins against Toronto and now their 3-2 lead over the heavily favored Knights — but now they are the favorites to win this series. And while they are at home tonight, these Game Sixes at home are dangerous because they carry with it the pressure of winning the series now or risk going on the road into a very hostile environment in a Game Seven. And Montreal does not have many fans in their stands still — so the home edge is not that prevalent. Don’t be surprised if this team suffers an emotional letdown. They have lost 20 of their last 33 games at home after a win by two or more goals. They have lost 9 of their last 13 home games after not allowing more than two goals in their last two games. Vegas needs to find some answers in getting their forwards going — but they should be on fire tonight in terms of work rate and effort. The Golden Knights have won 9 of their last 10 games after a loss by three or more goals. They have won 10 of their last 14 games after not scoring more than two goals in their last game — and they have won 10 of their last 14 games after allowing at least four goals in their last game. Robin Lehner will be the goaltender tonight which is fine — he had a 2.29 Goals-Against-Average and a .919 save percentage during the regular season after being the first-string goalie in the postseason last year. The team needs a momentum change — and placing Lehner between the pipes may light the fire under this team. Lehner did win Game Four in his start in Montreal to even this series. Vegas has won 20 of their last 27 road games when favored. They able also won 4 of their last 5 playoff games this season when trailing in the series.
FINAL TAKE: Vegas has won 26 of their last 34 games when playing with revenge from a loss by more than one goal — and they have won 6 of their last 7 games when motivated to avenge a loss by three or more goals. 25* NHL Stanley Cup Semifinals Game of the Year with the money-line on the Vegas Golden Knights (21) versus the Montreal Canadiens (22). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-23-21 |
Dodgers v. Padres OVER 7 |
Top |
3-5 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (907) and the San Diego Padres (908) listing both starting pitchers Trevor Bauer and Joe Musgrove. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (44-29) has lost the first two games of this series with their 3-2 loss on the road last night. San Diego (44-32) has won six games in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Dodgers have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a loss to an NL West rival — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a loss by just one run. Los Angeles has also played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total after losing two in a row. They give the ball to Bauer who is 7-5 with a 2.45 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP in 15 starts. The right-hander is the poster child for spin rate — and seems to have been negatively impacted with MLB’s crackdown on foreign substances that help pitchers get more spin on the baseball. In his last four starts, Bauer has a seen his ERA and WHIP rise to 3.46 and 1.27 marks. While those are still solid numbers, they are not elite — and he is facing a good Padres’ lineup that is scoring 5.7 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .274 batting average, .357 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .932. The Over is 13-6-1 in San Diego’s last 20 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. Perhaps the spin rate issue with Bauer is overstated — and he is simply experiencing good ole fashioned regression? His SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 3.44 and 3.73 for the right-hander moving forward. The Dodgers have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 12 of their last 17 road games Over the Total with the number set in the 7 to 8.5 range. They have also played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. San Diego has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after winning at least six in a row. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after allowing no more than two runs in their last game. Additionally, the Padres have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total with the number set in the 7 to 8.5 range — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games at home Over the Total when favored. They counter Musgrove who is 4-6 with a 2.28 ERA and a 0.85 WHIP in 14 games (13 starts). The sabermetrics call for an ERA of 3.97 and 3.00 moving forward. The left-hander changed his approach this season with an increased reliance on his cutter and slider at the expense of his four-seamer and sinker. But hitters adapt once the book gets written on his new approach — and the Dodgers have already faced him once this season on April 25th. His teams have played 8 of their last 13 home games Over the Total with him pitching with the Total set in the 7 to 8.5 range. He only struck out two batters in his last performance on June 17th — and his teams have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total with Musgrove pitching with five or six days of rest. The Dodgers may not have Mookie Betts in their lineup tonight as he deals with an illness — but they are averaging 5.8 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games. The Over is 27-11-2 in LA’s last 40 games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 13 of their last 18 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Over the Total — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total when motivated by at least double-revenge. 25* MLB Wednesday ESPN Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (907) and the San Diego Padres (908) listing both starting pitchers Trevor Bauer and Joe Musgrove. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-22-21 |
Scotland v. Croatia |
Top |
1-3 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 54 m |
Show
|
|
06-22-21 |
Scotland v. Croatia UNDER 2.5 |
Top |
1-3 |
Loss |
-100 |
1 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Scotland (234125) and Croatia (234126). THE SITUATION: Scotland (W0-D1-L1) comes off a 0-0 draw with England last Friday. Croatia (W0-D1-L1) also settled for a draw with their 1-1 result with the Czech Republic on Friday. This match will be played in Scotland’s home soil at Hampden Park in Glasgow.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Scoring looked to be a challenge for this Scotland team lacking in a dynamic attacker up front. Southampton’s Che Adams is a poacher — but he needs a creative partner up top (like Danny Ings with Southampton) to generate the chances that he can then pick up on. In midfielders Ryan Fraser, John Fleck, and John McGinn, the Tartan Army has capable players but who are not dynamic playmakers. So it is not a surprise that Scotland has yet to score a goal. And while their expected goals are at 3.0 in their first two matches, underachieving the expected goals tally is not uncommon for teams that lack quality finishers. Manager Steve Clarke has his team smartly embracing defensive tactics given these limitations — and they have only conceded two goals in this tournament. Clarke has moved defensive back Andy Robertson up top to a wing to help generate offense, but using players out of position is not ideal. But this team is playing quality defense. They have allowed only two goals — and they held a loaded English side to just seven shots, with only one on target. Croatia has scored just once — and they have generated only 1.6 expected goals in their two matches. The doldrums in the attack were on displaying in their tune-up matches to begin the month as well as they only scored once in their two friendlies against Belgium and Armenia. The Chequered Ones reached the Finals of the 2018 World Cup — but forward Mario Mandzukic and midfielder Ivan Rakitic have since retired. Croatia still has talent in their midfield — led by Real Madrid’s Luka Modric — but they lack comparable talent up top. This team simply looks uninspired with four straight losses and just two wins in their last eleven matches across all competitions. Frankly, this is a veteran team that knows they peaked in 2018. After a year-long busy schedule to fit everything in during a pandemic that delayed the end of the 2019-20 campaigns, this group may simply be tired.
FINAL TAKE: Both these teams need the three points that will come with a victory. Because both sides are struggling to score goals, I suspect they will consider a 1-0 deficit to be devastating. Cautious play is likely — and if a team falls behind, expecting two goals to tie the game is probably overly optimistic. 25* Euro 2020 Group D Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Scotland (234125) and Croatia (234126). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-21-21 |
A's v. Rangers UNDER 8 |
Top |
3-8 |
Loss |
-107 |
1 h 45 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Oakland A’s (911) and the Texas Rangers (912) listing both starting pitchers Frankie Montas and Kyle Gibson. THE SITUATION: Oakland (44-29) has lost two straight games after their 2-1 loss in New York against the Yankees yesterday. Texas (25-46) has lost six in a row after their 4-2 loss to Minnesota yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The A’s have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not scoring more than two runs in their last game. They have also played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a game where no more than four combined runs were scored. And while Oakland had been on a seven-game winning streak before dropping their last two, they have then played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total after winning six or seven of their last eight games. The A’s stay on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 10 road games Under the Total with the Total set at 7 to 8.5. They give the ball to Montas who is 7-6 with a 4.21 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP in 14 starts. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 3.13 ERA with a 1.22 WHIP in four starts. Oakland has played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total with Montas pitching with a Total set in the 7 to 8.5 range. The deeper sabermetrics are encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.86 and 3.91 moving forward. He faces a Rangers team that is scoring only 3.6 Runs-Per-Game at home with a .226 batting average, .282 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .649. The Under is 4-1-1 in Texas’ last 6 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Rangers have seen the Under go 10-3-1 in their last 14 games after scoring two runs or less in their last game. Texas has also played 11 of their last 17 home games Under the Total with the Total set at 7 to 8.5. They counter with Gibson who is 4-0 with a 2.09 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP in 13 starts. The right-hander has been outstanding at home where he owns a 0.96 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, and a .191 opponent’s batting average in six starts. The Rangers have played 4 of their 6 home games Under the Total with Gibson on the hill this season.
FINAL TAKE: Texas has played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 125 range. Oakland has played 4 straight Unders against teams with a winning percentage no better than 40% — and they have played 27 of their last 41 games Under the Total when playing at night. 25* MLB American League West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Oakland A’s (911) and the Texas Rangers (912) listing both starting pitchers Frankie Montas and Kyle Gibson. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-20-21 |
Hawks v. 76ers UNDER 217.5 |
Top |
103-96 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 7 m |
Show
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At 8:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Hawks (533) and the Philadelphia 76ers (534) in Game Seven of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (48-35) has lost three of the last five games in this series after their 104-99 loss on the road against the 76ers on Friday as a 2.5-point underdog. Philadelphia (56-27) had lost the last two games in this series before forcing a Game Seven with the win in Game Six.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: After their blistering first half in the opening game of this series where the Hawks made 63.4% of their shots, Atlanta has never come close to replicating that mark. They have not made more than 45.9% of their shots in five of the next six games — and they only made 41.2% of their shots on Friday despite playing on their home court. While Trae Young has been scintillating with a 30.3 PPG scoring average along with an 11.0 Assists-Per-Game mark, the problem for the Hawks is that he is not getting much help. No other play is averaging more than 2.5 Assists-Per-Game. Bogan Bogdanovich had being been a reliable number two in the first four games of this series with a 19 PPG scoring average and a 36.1% clip from bending the arc, he has only averaged 6.5 PPG in the last two games while making only 1 of his 10 shots from 3-point range. And now Bogdanovich is questionable with a knee injury for this game. Young needs more help. Atlanta has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They go back to Philadelphia for Game Seven where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road. The Hawks have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total in the playoffs as an underdog. Philadelphia has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a loss by six points or less. After scoring at least 118 points in each of the first three games of this series, the Sixers have not scored more than 106 points in the next three games. That downtrend coincides with the slide in Joel Embiid’s play as he continues to manage with the right meniscus tear in his knee. Embiid scored only 22 points on 37.5% shooting on Friday. Philadelphia is favored to win this game and move on to the NBA Eastern Conference Finals — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when favored.
FINAL TAKE: The 76ers have played 3 of their last 4 playoff games Under the Total when facing elimination. Atlanta has played 17 of their last 22 playoff games Under the Total when facing elimination in their history — and they have played 16 of their last 17 playoff games Under the Total in closeout games. 25* NBA 2nd Round Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Hawks (533) and the Philadelphia 76ers (534). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-19-21 |
Bucks v. Nets UNDER 216.5 |
Top |
115-111 |
Loss |
-110 |
6 h 41 m |
Show
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At 8:40 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (521) and the Brooklyn Nets (522) in Game Seven of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (53-29) forced a decisive seventh game in this series on Thursday with their 104-89 victory at home as a 5-point favorite. Brooklyn (55-28) has lost three of their last four games.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Khris Middleton stepped on Thursday by scoring 37 points on 11 of 16 shooting from the field. Middleton nailed 5 of his 8 shots from behind the arc — but the telling stat is that his teammates made only 2 of their 25 shots from downtown. Now the Bucks go back on the road where Middleton has made only 21 of his 65 shots (32.3%) in this series. Milwaukee has made only 27 of their 89 shots (30.3%) from behind the arc in this series. The Bucks have played 6 of their last 7 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Additionally, they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total as an underdog overall — and they have played 4 straight playoff games Under the Total when getting the points. Milwaukee is playing elite-level defense in this series. Going into Game Six, the Bucks held Brooklyn to just a 107.9 Offensive Rating in this series — and then they held the Nets to only 89 points. Brooklyn is averaging only — and they are averaging just 107 PPG against the Bucks in this series. The Nets are averaging only 103.7 PPG in this series —and they have not scored more than 96 points in three of their last four games in this series. Despite posting a historical 118.3 Offensive Rating in the regular season (and despite injuries to Durant, Harden, and Kyrie Irving) before a 130.1 Offensive Rating in their first-round playoff series with Boston, the Nets had just a 107.9 Offensive Rating in this series before Game Six. The Under is 34-16-1 in Milwaukee’s last 51 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. While there is now an entire cottage industry of NBA “experts” who think they could get more out of this Bucks’ team than Mike Budenholzer because they have thoughts on how they would better deploy his rotation patterns, Budenholzer has coached amazing results on the defensive end of the court in this series. Brooklyn has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 90 points in their last game. Additionally, the Under is 5-2-1 in the Nets’ last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and the Under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games after a loss by 10 or more points. For the second-straight game, Brooklyn trailed at halftime by double-digits. They were in the hole by a 59-48 score on Thursday after trailing, 59-43, on Tuesday. The Nets have played 21 of their last 29 games Under the Total after trailing by 10 or more points at halftime in their last two games. They return home where the Under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games. Brooklyn has also played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range.
FINAL TAKE: These are two teams stumbling into the finals with major question marks from their star offensive players. Kevin Durant was sublime in Game Five — but playing every minute on Tuesday seemed to sap his energy on Thursday as he only got to the free throw line twice while committing seven turnovers and missing six of his eight shots from 3-point land. James Harden is not close to 100%. Joe Harris is making only 30.9% of his 3-pointers in this series after leading the NBA in 3-point shooting with a 47.5% clip. Middleton is struggling away from home — and Jrue Holiday is not having a good series as he is averaging only 15.5 PPG on 40.5% shooting. And then there is Giannis Antetokounmpo who is scoring nice numbers when able to pad his stats as a frontrunner when his team has the lead, but he has disappointed in clutch situations and he has only made 21 of his 46 (45.7%) free throws in the series. The Under is 3-1-1 in the last 5 games between these two teams in Brooklyn. 25* NBA 2nd Round Saturday TNT Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (521) and the Brooklyn Nets (522). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-18-21 |
76ers v. Hawks UNDER 224 |
Top |
104-99 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 5 m |
Show
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At 7:35 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia 76ers (511) and the Atlanta Hawks (512) in Game Six of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (55-27) has suffered two straight upset losses in this series after losing to the Hawks at home by a 109-106 score as a 7-point favorite on Wednesday. Atlanta (48-34) can close out this series tonight with their 3-2 lead in the series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The 76ers took a 62-40 lead going into halftime but their shooting got ice cold as they made only 3 of their 24 shots from behind the arc in the final 24 minutes to blow that game. While it is easy to blame the offense, Doc Rivers’ team allowed the Hawks to score 40 points in the fourth quarter to steal Game Five. In general, Philadelphia has played outstanding defense after getting blitzed in the first half of the first game of this series. Since Game One, the Sixers have held the Atlanta to scoring at just a 108.4 points per 100 possessions rate. Philly’s formula to win this series is on defense. And while Atlanta wants to force the tempo to tire out Joel Embiid in the second half, Rivers will need to counter by slowing the game way down — and in a battle of tempo, slow usually beats fast. The 76ers have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 17 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They have also played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total after owning a halftime lead of 20 or more points. They hit the road where they have played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total — and they have played 13 of their last 18 road games Under the Total when favored. The Sixers have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games on their home court. Atlanta has won the last two games in this series as an underdog — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after pulling off two straight upset wins. Additionally, Atlanta has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread win. They return home where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total. Hawks’ head coach Nate McMillan having his team less reliant on 3s as this series has moved forward. Granted, Atlanta took 40 shots from behind the arc in Game Four while making only 12 of these shots. In Game Three, the Hawks attempted only 23 shots from 3-point range. On Wednesday in Game Five, the Hawks attempted only 26 shots from behind the arc, making just nine of these shots. Atlanta has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total in the playoffs as a dog.
FINAL TAKE: The 76ers have played 7 of their last 11 road games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. And in their 4 games this season when playing with revenge from a loss by three points or less, 3 of these games have finished Under the Total. 25* NBA 2nd Round Eastern Conference Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia 76ers (511) and the Atlanta Hawks (512). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-17-21 |
Nets v. Bucks UNDER 221 |
Top |
89-104 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 8:35 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Brooklyn Nets (501) and the Milwaukee Bucks (502) in Game Six of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Brooklyn (55-27) took a 3-2 lead in this series with their 114-108 victory at home as a 1.5-point underdog on Tuesday. Milwaukee (52-29) has lost three of their last five games as they return home looking to stave off elimination.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Nets won Game Five due to a Herculean effort from Kevin Durant who scored 49 points on 16 of 23 shooting from the field while playing every minute of the game. It will be difficult for Durant to come close to repeating that effort — especially with fatigue being an issue. James Harden played over 45 minutes but he was clearly hobbled with his hamstring injury. He scored only 5 points while making only 1 of his 10 shots and missing all 8 of his shots from behind the arc. Brooklyn shot 49.4% from the field on Tuesday which was the best shooting effort in their last three games. Despite posting a historical 118.3 Offensive Rating in the regular season (despite injuries to Durant, Harden, and Kyrie Irving) before a 130.1 Offensive Rating in their first-round playoff series with Boston, the Nets have just a 107.9 Offensive Rating in this series — and they are averaging just 107 PPG against the Bucks in this series. But Brooklyn should play better on defense tonight after allowing Milwaukee to nail 49.4% of their shots in what was the worst defensive effort in their last seven games. The Nets have played 4 straight Unders after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 straight Unders after a point spread victory. They go back on the road where they have played 8 of their last 10 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court — and they have played 4 straight road games Under the Total as an underdog. Milwaukee enjoyed the best shooting effort in their last 10 games with their 49.4% shooting percentage on Tuesday. But when the pressure mounted, the Bucks’ shooting failed — they scored only 17 points in the final 10 1/2 minutes of the fourth quarter. Milwaukee only has a 100 Offensive Rating in this series — and they have been playing at a slower pace than during the regular season. The 108 points they scored in Game Five were the most points they scored in the series. With the oddsmakers setting the Game One number just under 240, some bettors may think the Under trend is completed — and the Over is the smart play again. However, I suspect that the 108 points for the Bucks were more likely their scoring ceiling at this point. Giannis Antetokounmpo is a mess that is riddled with self-doubt at the free-throw line — and Milwaukee’s only answer for the “wall” defense that has stymied them in the postseason in the last three years is for teammates to make 3-pointers. But the Bucks are shooting just 29.3% from behind the arc in this series. Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday have true shooting percentages below 47% in this series. The ball movement has diminished in this series for Milwaukee as well which is impacting their efficiency. After averaging 25.5 team assists per game in the regular season, they are getting only 18.4 team assists per game. The Bucks have played 6 straight Unders after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Milwaukee has also played 12 of their last 14 games Under the Total at home after an upset loss on the road. They return home where they have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 8 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, the Under is 25-10-1 in the Bucks’ last 36 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games. While Milwaukee’s offensive attack has struggled in this series, their efforts on defense remain elite.
FINAL TAKE: The Bucks have played 7 of their last 10 playoff games Under the Total when trailing in the playoff series. The Under is 6-0-1 in the last 7 games between these two teams — and they have played 4 straight Unders when playing in Milwaukee. 25* NBA 2nd Round Thursday ESPN Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Brooklyn Nets (501) and the Milwaukee Bucks (502). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-16-21 |
Clippers v. Jazz UNDER 222 |
Top |
119-111 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 51 m |
Show
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At 10:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (583) and the Utah Jazz (584) in Game Five of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (53-30) evened this series at 2-2 with their 118-104 win against the Jazz as a 5.5-point favorite on Monday. Utah (58-23) has lost two games in a row after riding a six-game winning streak.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Under is 9-2-1 in the Clippers’ last 12 games after a straight-up win. Additionally, Los Angeles has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory — and they have played 25 of their last 38 games Under the Total after a win on the road by at least 10 points. The Clippers have declared Kawhi Leonard out tonight from the knee injury he suffered after colliding with the Jazz’s Joe Ingles with just 4:35 minutes left in the fourth quarter. Leonard’s loss hurts Los Angeles on both ends of the court — but his loss will probably impact their offensive attack the most since he is the team’s primary scorer. Paul George has a long history of not being reliable as the primary scorer in the playoffs. Everyone’s role for the Clippers becomes more important without Leonard. Marcus Morris broke out of his shooting slump on Monday by nailing 5 of his 6 shots from behind the arc — but he made only 1 of his 16 shots from 3-point range in the first three games of this series even with Leonard available as a safety blanket. The Under is 19-9-1 in Los Angeles’ last 29 road games against teams winning at least 60% of their games at home — and they have played 13 of their last 17 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Utah has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 straight Unders after a loss by 10 or more points. And while the Jazz have not covered the point spread in the last two games in this series, they have then played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after not covering the point spread in two straight games. Utah is dealing with its own injury issues. Donovan Mitchell made just 9 of 26 shots from the field in Game Four as the right ankle injury he suffered seems to be impacting his play. With a 42.6% usage rate for the Jazz on offense, he may be wearing down. Michael Conley is questionable to return to the court for the first time in this series — if he does play, he not only helps the Utah offense with his playmaking but also on defense since he remains a skilled on-the-ball defender.
FINAL TAKE: The Clippers have played 24 of their last 35 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in Salt Lake City against the Jazz. 25* NBA Bailout Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (583) and the Utah Jazz (584). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-15-21 |
Bucks v. Nets +3.5 |
Top |
108-114 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 8:35 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Brooklyn Nets (572) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (571) in Game Five of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Brooklyn (54-27) looks to rebound from their 107-96 upset loss at Milwaukee as a 2-point favorite on Sunday. Milwaukee (52-28) has won six of their last eight games including the last two games to even this series at 2-2.
REASONS TO TAKE THE NETS PLUS THE POINTS: Brooklyn looked shellshocked and out-of-synch after Kyrie Irving injured his ankle — he only played 17:17 minutes in Game Four. Irving is out for tonight’s game. But the Nets did get some help back with Jeff Green returning to action after missing the previous six games. He played 26:33 minutes on Sunday with eight points and five rebounds. He helps on both ends of the court. Brooklyn still has Kevin Durant to carry the team — both he and his supporting cast should play better back on their home court. Durant made only 20 of his 53 shots in the last two games in Milwaukee. Joe Harris was just 3 of 13 from behind the arc in Games Three and Four. But Harris led the NBA with a 47.5% clip from behind the arc during the regular season — and he was even better at home in the Barclays Center where he nailed 49.7% of his 3-point attempts. As a team, Brooklyn only made 18 of their 65 shots from 3-point land — and that 27.7% shooting percentage is far below their 39.4% mark from 3-point land at home. Durant should play better with two days to mentally prepare for having to be the primary scorer tonight — but he should get help back at home. The Nets are 14-2 straight-up at home since the start of April — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games at home. Brooklyn has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games as an underdog. And in the last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%, Brooklyn has covered the point spread 6 times. Milwaukee only made 44.3% of their shots on Sunday — and it was still the best shooting effort in their last three games. The Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by double-digits. Giannis Antetokounmpo scored 34 points in the win on 14 of 26 shooting. Despite those nice numbers, I am not buying it. Antetokounmpo continued with his struggles and antics at the free-throw line as he missed five of his ten free throw attempts. He has made only 11 of his 29 (37.9%) free throws in this series. He has the yips — and it is affecting his play on the court even when he is not on the line. His fear of dealing with the demons in his head that he uses all ten seconds allotted what the charity stripe in those of quieting them down contributes to him not playing as aggressively in attacking the basket — he doesn’t want to get fouled. His free-throw shooting in the first two games in Brooklyn was even worse as he made just 2 of his 10 shots. This makes the blue-print “wall” defense against Antetokounmpo even more effective — and it compels him to settle for 3-point shot attempts even though he has made only 4 of his 21 shots from behind the arc in this series. The Greek Freak’s good game came mostly on the heels of his teammates picked him up by making 16 of their 47 shots from 3-point land — with most of their converted 3s taking place in the first half. But the Bucks have not made more than 8 shots from downtown in any other game in this series — and they have a rough 20 of 88 (22.3%) shooting percentage from 3-point range in this series. Milwaukee has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after winning two games in a row at home. And while the Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 29 games after winning six or seven of their last eight games. And while the first four games in this series have finished Under the Total, Milwaukee has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after playing four Unders in a row. Now the Bucks hit the road again where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games at home. Furthermore, Milwaukee has failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher.
FINAL TAKE: The news that James Harden will attempt to take the court tonight as he deals with his hamstring injury. We will see if he can be effective — but he can only help the cause. Even without Harden, I think Brooklyn wins tonight (but I recommend taking the points for some insurance). 25* NBA 2nd Round Eastern Conference Game of the Year with the Brooklyn Nets (572) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (571). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-14-21 |
Jazz v. Clippers UNDER 224 |
Top |
104-118 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 53 m |
Show
|
At 10:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Utah Jazz (563) and the Los Angeles Clippers (564) in Game Four of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Utah (58-22) had their six-game winning streak snapped on Saturday with their 132-106 loss at the Staples Center to the Clippers as a 4.5-point underdog. Los Angeles (52-30) still trails 2-1 in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Jazz allowed the Clippers to make 56.2% of their shots in Game Three which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last 47 games. Utah has played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after allowing their last opponent to make at 55% of their shots. The Jazz have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least 125 points in their last game — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after giving up at least 130 points in their last game. Additionally, Utah has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss. Los Angeles’ 56.2% shooting percentage was the best offensive effort in their last seven games. But the Clippers have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after making at least 55% of their shots in their last game. Los Angeles has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring at least 125 points in their last game — and the Under is 8-2-1 in their last 11 games after a straight-up win. Head coach Tyronn Lue made a defensive adjustment on defending Donovan Mitchell on Saturday by having his primary defender challenge him earlier up the court. That tactical change helped the Clippers play their best defensive game in the series, overall while limiting the Jazz to 42.9% shooting. Los Angeles stays at home where the Under is 7-2-1 in their last 10 home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. Additionally, the Under is 20-7-3 in the Clippers’ last 30 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and the Under is 10-4-2 in their last 16 games in the playoffs when favored.
FINAL TAKE: Michael Conley has been declared out for this game with the hamstring injury that has kept him out of this series. The Under is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams. 25* NBA 2nd Round Monday TNT Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Utah Jazz (563) and the Los Angeles Clippers (564). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-13-21 |
Nets v. Bucks UNDER 229.5 |
Top |
96-107 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 3:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Brooklyn Nets (551) and the Milwaukee Bucks (552) in Game Four of the Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (51-28) won their first game in this series with their 86-83 victory at home against the Nets as a 3.5-point favorite on Thursday. Brooklyn (54-26) had their four-game winning streak snapped with the loss.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Game Three of this series was a fascinating result (from afar). Milwaukee made only 37.8% of their shots in the win which was the lowest field goal percentage of the season. But they were able to win the game via their ferocious play on defense — they held Brooklyn to 36.2% shooting which was their second-best defensive game of the season since Game Two of the regular season (77 games ago). I track these numbers because I want to identify outlier performances to bet against. In this instance, I suspect those numbers are a harbinger of things to come in this series — they are trends rather than outliers. The Bucks scored only 86 points in Game Two on 44.0% shooting. The four-game sweep against Miami temporarily obscured that Milwaukee has not solved its “wall” problem that opposing teams have used in the postseason to neutralize Giannis Antetokounmpo. With the Bucks playing four shooters outside the 3-point line, the Greek Freak has success in the regular season driving the lane with all the cleared space. But their playoff opponents have not taken the bait but instead, play a wall in the interior — a quasi-roaming 2-3 zone defense — to thwart these potential Antetokounmpo drives. An active Antetokounmpo can challenge this defense — exerting energy and getting to the free-throw line. Or, he can play outside as well and take 3-pointers. Or, he can settle for two-point jump shots just inside the arc. Or, he can drive the lane and dish to his open opponents. None of this works if Giannis is off his game … and Giannis is off his game. He has missed 6 of 19 free throw attempts while hushing the Milwaukee crowd to not cheer “MVP” at the line and twice getting whistled for a ten-second violation as he tries to quiet the demons in his head at the stripe. He has the yips. And his fear of failure at the free-throw line is taking away his ambition to drive. So he settles for jumpers — yet he made only 1 of 8 shots from behind the arc in Game Three. If he takes a shot just inside the arc, the defense has already won given the low probability of that 2-point shot. Antetokounmpo can dish to his teammates — but the team made only 6 of their 31 (19.3%) shots from downtown. The whole team senses their leader’s anxiety. The Plan B to Giannis not making shots is the Bucks’ system that emphasizes maximizing shot value from 3-pointers. The critics love to blame Budenholzer for his inability to adapt — but there is simply little he can turn to. Rather than blaming Budenholzer, maybe he should be credited for getting the most out of the talent available to him. The team needs a reliable complementary scoring option to Giannis — but Kris Middleton and Jrue Holiday may be third options being asked to take on the number two role. And what if Antetokounmpo is really not a number one option himself? Blame Budenholzer! Where Budenhozler continues to adapt is on defense — that is the route from which the Bucks can win this series. They have slowed down the high-powered Nets offense to just 107.7 PPG. And the pace is slowing down. After averaging 102.2 possessions per game in the regular season, Milwaukee's pace was 97.7 on Thursday. The Bucks have played 6 of their last 7 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, Milwaukee has played 6 straight Unders against teams winning at least 60% of their games — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total as an underdog. Brooklyn should have fresh legs on defense — they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing with two days of rest. They stay on the road where they have played 7 of their last 9 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. And in their last 35 road games when listed in the +/- 3-point range, the Nets have played 24 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 straight meetings Under the Total. I expect more of the same with the market slow to react to the new realities of this series. 25* NBA 2nd Round ABC-TV Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Brooklyn Nets (551) and the Milwaukee Bucks (552). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-12-21 |
Jazz v. Clippers -4 |
Top |
106-132 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 40 m |
Show
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At 8:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Clippers (542) minus the points versus the Utah Jazz (541) in Game Three of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (51-30) returns home to the Staples Center down 0-2 in this series after their 117-111 loss on the road in Game Two on Thursday. Utah (58-21) has won six straight games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CLIPPERS MINUS THE POINTS: Once again, Los Angeles has to dig themselves out of an 0-2 hole in this postseason. No team in NBA history has rebounded from two 0-2 deficits in the playoffs — but at least we know that the Clippers are resilient. They went on a 46-23 run when trailing by 21 points in the second half in Game Two. Head coach Tyronn Lue deployed a zone defense to help trigger the rally. But Los Angeles still allowed the Jazz to make 55.3% of their shots in that game. That was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage they have surrendered in their last seven games. The Clippers have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after allowing their last two opponents to make at least 55% of their shots. And while LA has allowed their last three opponents to score at least 111 points, they have then covered the point spread in 58 of their last 91 games after allowing at least 105 points in three straight games — including 13 of these 21 situations this season. The Clippers have also covered the point spread in 32 of their last 49 games after a loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 34 of their last 56 games after losing two of their last three games. Returning home will help the Los Angeles role players shoot better. The Clippers have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 25 home games with the Total set at 220 or higher. Los Angeles has also coerced the point spread in 6 of their last 9 playoff games when trailing in the series. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 playoff games when favored. Utah enjoyed the best shooting effort in their last 13 games with their 55.3% shooting percentage. But the Jazz have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games after making at least 55% of their shots in their last game. But now Utah goes back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 road games against teams with a winning record on their home court. The Jazz are also just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games on the road as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: The Clippers have covered the point spread in 40 of their last 65 games when motivated to avenge a same-season loss. 25* NBA 2nd Round Saturday ABC-TV Playoff Game of the Year with the Los Angeles Clippers (542) minus the points versus the Utah Jazz (541). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-11-21 |
Suns v. Nuggets OVER 222.5 |
Top |
116-102 |
Loss |
-106 |
6 h 35 m |
Show
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At 10:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (533) and the Denver Nuggets (534) in Game Three of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Phoenix (57-23) took a 2-0 lead in this series with their 123-98 victory at home against the Nuggets as a 5.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Denver (51-29) has lost three of their last five games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Even with the easy win, the Suns made 47.9% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last three games. They have been an offensive juggernaut in this series against the suspect Nuggets’ defense — they are scoring 125.6 points per 100 possessions in this series. Phoenix has an effective field goal percentage of 59.7% in the first two games while nailing 40.3% of their 3-point attempts. Denver has allowed their opponents to make 42.2% of their shots from behind the arc in the postseason. Chris Paul looks healthy again after playing through that stinger injury. He scored 17 points on 6 of 10 shooting while assisting on another 15 baskets and not committing a turnover. The Suns have played 17 of their last 21 games Over the Total after a win by double-digits — and they have played 12 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a win by 20 or more points. They have also played 20 of their last 27 games Over the Total after scoring at least 120 points. They go on the road where they have played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total — and they have played 4 straight road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better at home. Phoenix has also played 12 of their last 16 road games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Denver had their worst shooting game in their last four contests by making only 40% of their shots. They return home where they are scoring 117.9 PPG on 48.4% shooting and 37.8% shooting from behind the arc. Unfortunately for head coach Michael Malone, the 47.9% shooting percentage they allowed Phoenix to generate was the lowest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last three games. They have allowed the Suns to score at least 112 points in four of their five meetings this season. The Nuggets have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a double-digit loss — and they have played 12 of their last 15 games Over the Total after allowing their last three opponents to make at least 47% of their shots. They return home where the Over is 39-19-2 in their last 60 games. They have played 4 straight Overs against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road — and they have played 15 of their last 21 home games Over the Total with the number set in the 220s. Denver has also played 5 of their last 6 playoff games Over the Total when favored.
FINAL TAKE: The Nuggets have played 13 of their last 21 games Over the Total avenging a loss on the road — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total when avenging two straight losses against their opponent. 25* NBA 2nd Round ESPN Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (533) and the Denver Nuggets (534). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-09-21 |
Nuggets v. Suns OVER 222 |
Top |
98-123 |
Loss |
-110 |
6 h 11 m |
Show
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At 9:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (511) and the Phoenix Suns (512) in Game Two of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Denver (51-28) had their two game winning streak snapped on Monday with their 122-105 loss at Phoenix as a 6-point underdog in the opening game of this series. Phoenix (56-23) has won four games in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Nuggets only made 46.7% of their shots on Monday which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last three games. Nikola Jokic was just 10 of 23 from the field in the game for 22 points. It was just the third time in 79 games this season that Jokic’s point total was below his shot attempts number. Jokic did not attempt a free throw attempt either which had only happened four other times this season. Phoenix’s Deandre Ayton was only whistled for one personal foul in his 38 minutes of play. Jokic only had three assists despite averaging 8.3 Assists-Per-Game for the season. He should be more active and aggressive tonight which will help the Nuggets approach or top their 118.6 Points-Per-Game scoring average in the playoffs. Denver has played 21 of their last 29 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Over is 18-7-1 in the Nuggets’ last 26 games after a loss by 10 or more points. Michael Porter only scored 15 points in Game One while not playing for most of the second half with a sore back. He has initially listed as questionable, but he has been upgraded as probable to play tonight. He should play better tonight as well in his role as the primary scoring complement to Jokic. Denver stays on the road where they have played 6 of their last 7 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. The Nuggets have played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total as an underdog. Additionally, Denver has played 6 of their last 7 playoff games Over the Total as an underdog. Phoenix has seen the Over go 34-16-1 in their last 51 games after a straight-up win — and the Over is 24-9-1 in their last 34 games after a point spread victory. The Suns have also played 19 of their last 26 games Over the Total after a double-digit win. Phoenix makes 49.8% of their shots at home this season with them averaging 115.8 PPG. They had balanced scoring against the Nuggets on Monday with four players scoring at least 20 points. Chris Paul looked as healthy as he has since suffering the stinger injury in the Lakers series. He made 8 of 14 shots for 23 points and added 11 assists. The Suns have played 13 of their last 19 games Over the Total at home against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better on the road. Phoenix has also played 19 of their last 26 games Over the Total as a favorite.
FINAL TAKE: Denver has played 13 of their last 20 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a loss on the road. 25* NBA 2nd Round Wednesday TNT Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (511) and the Phoenix Suns (512). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-08-21 |
Clippers v. Jazz UNDER 220.5 |
Top |
109-112 |
Loss |
-110 |
6 h 9 m |
Show
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At 10:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (503) and the Utah Jazz (504) in Game One of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (51-28) has won four of their last five games after defeating Dallas in Game Seven of their playoff series by a 126-111 score as a 6-point favorite on Sunday. Utah (56-21) has won four in a row after dispatching Memphis in five games with their 126-110 win as a 9-point favorite last Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Clippers saved their best 3-point shooting performance for Game Seven as they nailed 20 of their 43 shots (46.5%) en route to a 50% shooting percentage for the game. That was Los Angeles’ best shooting effort in their last four games. They also allowed the Mavericks to nail 49.5% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last five contests. The Under is 7-2-1 in the Clippers’ last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Los Angeles has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory. The Clippers go back on the road where they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total — and the Under is 18-8-1 in their last 27 road games against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games on their home court. Utah may be rusty with their shooting touch after the six-day layoff after ending their series with the Grizzlies. They made 51.6% of their shots in Game Five which was the best shooting effort in their previous three games. The Jazz have played five straight Overs — but they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Toal after playing at least four straight Overs. Utah has allowed at least 110 points in five straight contests — but they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least 105 points in at least four straight games. They also have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after allowing at least 105 points in five straight games. The Jazz’s defense will present a problem for the Clippers — they ranked third in the NBA by holding their opponents to 107.5 points per 100 possessions. Utah allowed only 10.9 make 3-pointers per game, the lowest in the league during the regular season. They also lead the NBA by holding their opponents to just 50.4% shooting inside the arc. The Jazz host the first two games of this series where they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has played 24 of their last 35 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points — and the Under is 6-0-2 in the Clippers’ last 8 games in Western Conference Semifinals. 25* NBA 2nd Round Tuesday TNT Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (503) and the Utah Jazz (504). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-08-21 |
Golden Knights v. Avalanche -141 |
Top |
3-2 |
Loss |
-141 |
3 h 55 m |
Show
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At 9:08 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Colorado Avalanche (36) versus the Vegas Golden Knights (35) in Game Five of their West Division Finals series. THE SITUATION: Colorado (45-15-4) has lost the last two games of this series after their 5-1 loss in Las Vegas on Sunday. Vegas (46-17-4) has evened this series at 2-2.
REASONS TO TAKE THE AVALANCHE WITH THE MONEY-LINE: I suspected that Colorado’s 7-1 victory in Game One of this series might turn out to be Pyrrhic if it gave this young team too much confidence. Despite winning Game Two in overtime, the metrics suggest that the Golden Knights outplayed them — and that means Vegas has outplayed them in each of the last three games. Head coach Jared Bednar claimed his team is trying to “be too fancy” with their shots — and likely product of them sharpshooters finding so much success in Game One against Vegas goaltender Robin Lehner (while listening to everyone tell them how good they are). The Avalanche lacks the deep playoff experience that this Vegas team possesses. The Knights have lulled Colorado into a more physical type of series that they want. That all said, it will be tough for Vegas to win three straight against this talented Avalanche team. Colorado only put up 18 shots on Sunday — and they have been outshot by a 110 to 52 margin in the last three games in this series. The Ave’s simply need to start peppering Fleury with more action to generate more scoring chances after scoring only three goals in the last two games. Colorado has won 36 of their last 53 games after not scoring more than two goals in their last game — and they have won 5 straight games after not scoring more than two goals in two straight games. The Avalanche have also won 12 of their last 14 games after a loss by at least three goals. And in their last 9 games after losing two of their last three, Colorado has won 8 of their last 9 games. Goalie Philip Grubauer had his worst game in the postseason by allowing five goals on 35 shots. He should play better at home where he had a 19-4-1 record with a 1.60 Goals-Against-Average and a .935 save percentage. The Avalanche has won 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least five goals in their last game. Colorado has won 13 straight games at home — and they are 20-0-1 in their last 21 games at home in Ball Arena. It may be hard for Vegas to sustain the intensity they have felt since getting blown out in Game One. They have lost 16 of their last 27 games after allowing a victory by at least four goals. The Knights have not been great underdogs as they have lost 5 of their last 7 games as a dog — and they have lost 27 of their last 38 road games as an underdog. Vegas has also lost 7 of their last 10 playoff games as an underdog. Furthermore, this Golden Knights team has developed a reputation of not being able to close out playoff series — and they have lost 4 of their last 5 Game Fives.
FINAL TAKE: Colorado has won 10 straight games on their home ice when avenging a same-season loss — and they have lost 24 of their last 30 games when motivated with revenge from a loss by four or more goals. 25* NHL 2nd Round Tuesday NBC Sports Network Game of the Year with the money-line on the Colorado Avalanche (36) versus the Vegas Golden Knights (35). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-07-21 |
Bucks v. Nets OVER 235 |
Top |
86-125 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 13 m |
Show
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At 7:35 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (581) and the Brooklyn Nets (582) in Game Two of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (50-27) had their four-game winning streak snapped with their 115-107 loss at Brooklyn as a 3.5-point underdog in Game One of this series on Saturday. Brooklyn (53-25) has won three straight games as well as 10 of their last 11 contests.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bucks endured the combination of some bad shooting luck and just an underachieving effort on the offensive end of the court on Saturday. They made only 6 of their 30 shots from behind the arc. They missed 8 of their 19 free throw attempts. They shot just 44.6% from the field which was the worst shooting effort in their last four games. Milwaukee should approach their 48.6% field goal percentage along with their 38.3% mark from 3-point land and their 78.3% free throw percentage when on the road tonight. They should be encouraged by the 15 offensive rebounds they pulled down on Saturday. Their size advantage should help them get plenty of second-chance scoring opportunities all series — and Giannis Antetokounmpo and Brook Lopez should dominate with their inside scoring. Milwaukee outrebounded the Nets by a 58-47 margin — and they have outrebounded their last five opponents by at least 11 boards. The Bucks have played 41 of their last 63 games Over the Total after outrebounding their last two opponents by at least 10 boards. They have played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total after outrebounding their last three opponents by at least 10 boards — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after outrebounding their last five opponents by at least 10 boards. We had the Under for Game One — and that game finished well below the 239.5 point total. But Milwaukee has played 21 of their last 33 games Over the Total after playing an Under in their last game. I expected rust for Game One — and now I expect fresh legs and better shooting. The Bucks have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when playing with one day of rest — and they have played 13 of their last 20 games Over the Total when playing their second game in five days. Milwaukee stays on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total — and they have played 13 of their last 18 games Over the Total on the road with the Total set at 230 or higher. The Bucks have also played 5 of their last 7 second games in a playoff series Over the Total. Brooklyn only made 46.9% of their shots on Saturday which was the worst shooting percentage in their last three games. The team was rattled early after James Harden re-injuring his hamstring. The Nets will adjust to Harden’s absence tonight out of the gate. They play at a faster pace without Harden on the court since he prefers to slow things down when he gets a defender in isolation. And the modus operandi for rookie head coach Steve Nash to any problem is to play at a faster pace (what else from a devotee of Mike D’Antoni?). In the 19 games the Mets played without Harden in the regular season, the average combined score was 236. Brooklyn has played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total after winning two straight games at home. The Nets have also played 8 of their last 11 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have played 35 of their last 57 games Over the Total when favored.
FINAL TAKE: Milwaukee’s expected points based on their shot quality from 3-point range adds 15 points to their Total in Game One — and their expected points overall rise to 127. Kris Middleton only made 6 of 23 shots for 13 points — but his expected points based on his shot selection were 27 points. Brooklyn’s shot quality produced 123.5 expected points. Given the pace of play in Game One which I do not expect to change, the Regression Gods should see this game finish Over the Total. The Bucks have played 10 of their last 16 games Over the Total when avenging a loss on the road — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total when playing at Brooklyn. 25* NBA 2nd Round Monday TNT Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (581) and the Brooklyn Nets (582). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-06-21 |
Mavs v. Clippers -6 |
Top |
111-126 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 4 m |
Show
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At 3:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Clippers (574) minus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (573) in Game Seven of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (50-28) forced a climactic seventh game in this series after their 104-97 win on the road against the Mavericks as a 3-point favorite. Dallas (45-33) has lost three of the last four games in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CLIPPERS MINUS THE POINTS: It may look easy to take the Mavericks getting 6 or so points in this seventh game — but Los Angeles has been the dominant team in this series since making some adjustments after Game Two. Dallas was on fire with their 3-point shooting by making 47.2% and 52.9% of their 3-pointers in the first two games in this series. But the Regression Gods made their appearance and the Mavs have not been the same from behind the arc. They made only 11 of their 34 shots (32.4%) of their 3-pointers in Game Six. Ty Lue made the decision to not play Ivica Zubic when Luka Doncic is on the court since he was getting torched on the pick-and-roll. Going with a small lineup of Reggie Jackson and Nicolas Batum for Zubic and Patrick Beverley has been a game-changer for the Clippers. Beverley is not the same player on defense — and he has never been much of a scorer, so he is a liability if he has lost his defensive prowess. I’m not surprised that Los Angeles blew Game Five at home after picking themselves off the mat to win both games in Dallas. But facing elimination, Kawhi Leonard is finally defending Doncic — he held him to 2 of 6 shooting in the times he guarded him on Friday. I expect Leonard to take on this defensive assignment even more for this Game Seven. And how far away is Doncic from being 100% with the neck injury has been dealing with for most of this series? Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when playing with one day of rest. They have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 22 home games when laying 6.5 to 12 points. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after a loss at home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games with one day of rest. And in the last 9 games after losing three of their last four games, the Mavericks have failed to cover the point spread in all 5 games. For Dallas to win, Doncic will have to carry the team. Kristaps Porzingis is a big disappointment coming off a 7-point game on Friday. He has not reached double-digits three times in this series.
FINAL TAKE: The Mavericks had their chance to win this series on Friday. The challenge is even harder now, even though they have won three times already in the Staples Center. They will play hard — but expect the Clippers to eventually pull away. Dallas remains a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 playoff games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games in the Western Conference Quarterfinals. 25* NBA 1st Round ABC-TV Playoff Game of the Year with the Los Angeles Clippers (574) minus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (573). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-06-21 |
Hawks v. 76ers UNDER 220.5 |
Top |
128-124 |
Loss |
-105 |
1 h 47 m |
Show
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At 1:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Hawks (571) and the Philadelphia 76ers (572) in Game One of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (45-32) has won eight of their last nine games after their 103-89 victory at New York as a 1-point underdog on Wednesday to close out that series in five games. Philadelphia (53-24) has won six of their last seven games with their 129-112 victory against Washington as a 6-point favorite on Wednesday to end that series in five games.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Hawks have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. And they have played 17 of their last 25 games Under the Total after winning three of their last four games. Atlanta made a dramatic improvement once Nate McMillan became their head coach midseason — and the team is playing much better on the defensive end of the court. The Hawks have held their last eight opponents to no better than 44.2% shooting — and six of their last seven opponents have not topped 42% shooting. The rest should help this team as they have played 6 straight Unders when playing their second game in seven days. But the offensive attack for this team wanes when they are on the road. Atlanta averaged 119.3 points per 100 possessions at home during the regular season — but that mark dropped to them scoring only 104.0 points per 100 possessions when on the road. The Hawks have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 7 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Additionally, Atlanta has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 5 straight playoff games Under the Total as a dog. Philadelphia has played 35 of their last 51 home games Under the Total after a game where at least 235 combined points were scored. The team will likely be without Joel Embiid who is nursing a meniscus tear in his right knee. Embiid plays a critical role for the team on both ends of the court — but his impact is probably more important on offense. Going into Game Five of the Washington series, the 76ers were scoring +11.2 more points per 100 possessions with Embiid on the court this season. In that series (after Game Four), the Sixers have scored +38 more points per 100 possessions with Embiid playing. They were scoring only 104.9 points per 100 possessions without Embiid in this series (after Game Four) with a 49.4% effective field goal percentage. Philly torched the defensively challenged Wizards by making 51.2% of their shots on Wednesday — but Washington loves to play at a fast pace which helped them get open looks. Atlanta slows the pace down — so getting good looks will be more of a challenge. The 76ers have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the Eastern Conference Semifinals — and they have played 3 of their last 4 opening games to a new series Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: Embiid is going to start this afternoon. Frankly, I am not sure how effective he will be on the offensive end of the court — but his presence protecting the rim will probably help our Under play, overall. These teams last played on April 30th when the Sixers crashed Atlanta at home by a 126-104 score. Atlanta has played 13 of their last 21 games Under the Total when avenging a loss on the road. 25* NBA 2nd Round ABC-TV Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Hawks (571) and the Philadelphia 76ers (572). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-05-21 |
Bucks v. Nets -3.5 |
Top |
107-115 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 13 m |
Show
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At 7:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Brooklyn Nets (562) minus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (561) in Game One of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Brooklyn (52-25) returns to the court for the first time since Tuesday after they completed their four-game sweep of Boston in Round One of the playoffs with their 123-109 victory as a 12.5-point favorite. Milwaukee (50-26) has won seven of their last eight games after sweeping against the Heat in four games after their 120-103 victory on the road in Miami as a 4-point favorite last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE NETS MINUS THE POINTS: Brooklyn should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a point spread victory. The Nets have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a double-digit victory. After Kevin Durant missed 38 regular-season games, James Harden missed 14 games in the regular season, and Kyrie Irving missed 18 regular games, the Brooklyn Big Three added five games to the 13 total overall this season that they have played — and the results were impressive. They scored 128 points per 100 possessions against the Celtics in the opening round of the playoffs — and I don’t care if the Boston defense was not elite, that is an incredible number against a playoff team. The Nets host Game One where they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 home games when favored in the Barclays Center. Brooklyn has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Furthermore, the Nets have covered the point spread in 30 of their last 47 games with the Over/Under set at 230 or higher — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. Milwaukee may suffer an emotional letdown after exorcising the demons of getting upset by the Miami Heat in the playoffs last postseason. The Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after winning three games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games after winning six or seven of their last eight games. Milwaukee may suffer from rest with the week off — they are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games when playing with at least three days of rest. They go on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight road games as an underdog. Furthermore, the Bucks are 16-33-2 ATS in their last 51 games in the playoffs as an underdog. Milwaukee lost an important piece last round with the season-ending foot injury to Donte DiVincenzo.
FINAL TAKE: Milwaukee won the last meeting between these two teams with their 124-118 victory at home on May 4th. The Bucks have yet to play the Nets with Durant, Harden, and Irving all on the court — and the Nets have covered the point spread in 41 of their last 68 games when avenging a loss on the road. 25* NBA 2nd Round Saturday TNT Game of the Year with the Brooklyn Nets (562) minus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (561). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-04-21 |
Clippers v. Mavs UNDER 216.5 |
Top |
104-97 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 39 m |
Show
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At 9:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (557) and the Dallas Mavericks (558) in Game Six of the Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (49-28) looks to stave off elimination after losing Game Five of this series with their 105-100 upset loss at home to the Mavericks as a 7.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Dallas (45-32) returns home with the opportunity to close out this series with their 3-2 lead.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Clippers have palled 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and the Under is 11-4-1 in their last 16 games after a point spread loss. Los Angeles has also played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after an upset loss as a home favorite. And in their last 7 games played with one day of rest, the Under is 5-1-1. Los Angeles hits the road where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 8 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on their home court. Furthermore, the Clippers have played 18 of their last 26 road games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Additionally, the Under is 10-4-1 in Los Angeles’ last 15 games as a favorite — and the Under is 9-2-2 in their last 13 games when favored in the playoffs. Dallas benefited from a resurgent performance from Luka Doncic who rebounded from his subpar 9 of 24 shooting mark in Game Four with a 42 point night on Wednesday which included him nailing 6 of 12 shots from behind the arc. Doncic also assisted on 14 baskets in Game Four — he scored or assisted on all but six of the Mavericks’ field goals. He clearly benefited from the extra second day of rest. But this game is being played with one day of rest — will Doncic be able to recover from his injured neck that seemed to hold him back in Game Four? This is Dallas’ fourth game in the last ten days — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total when playing just their fourth game in ten days. The Mavericks held the Clippers to 41.2% shooting on Wednesday. Head coach Rick Carlisle had this team playing better on the defensive end of the court to close out the regular season. While the Mavs ranked 21st in the season in Defensive Efficiency, they were 13th in that metric over their last 15 games. They return home where they have played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total — and they have played 11 of their last 14 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, Dallas has played 21 of their last 26 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 14 of their last 17 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%.
FINAL TAKE: These are two teams that played at the 26th and 28th slowest paces in the league in the regular season. That helps explain why they have played 7 of their last 9 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games in Dallas Under the Total. The Clippers have played 26 of their last 41 games Under the Total when avenging a loss at home. 25* NBA 1st Round Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (557) and the Dallas Mavericks (558) in Game Six of the Western Conference Quarterfinals series. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-04-21 |
Canadiens v. Jets -108 |
Top |
1-0 |
Loss |
-108 |
3 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 7:38 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Winnipeg Jets (12) versus the Montreal Canadiens (11) in Game Two of their East Division Finals series. THE SITUATION: Winnipeg (34-23-3) had their six-game winning streak snapped on Wednesday with their 5-3 loss to the Canadiens in the opening game of this series. Montreal (29-24-1) has won four games in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE THE JETS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Winnipeg may have been shaking off some rust on Wednesday after not playing since May 24th after they swept Edmonton in four games in the opening round of the playoffs. They should be sharper tonight after losing on home ice. The Jets have rebounded to win 24 of their last 36 games after a loss to a divisional opponent. And while they allowed two goals in the third period in Game One, they have then won 8 of their last 13 games after allowing at least two goals in the third period of their last game. Winnipeg will be without their top-line center in Mark Scheifele who got suspended for four games for his ugly hit on the Canadiens’ Jake Evans in the final minute of that game. The loss of Scheifele hurts — but I expect the veteran Jets’ players to rally around each other. The core of his team has won three seven-game playoff series in the last four seasons — and they made a run to the Western Conference Finals in 2018. Despite a shaky game on Wednesday, goalie Conner Hellebuyck can put his team on his shoulders. The reigning Vezina Trophy winner has a 2.01 Goals-Against-Average and a .937 save percentage in these playoffs after frustrating Auston Matthews and the Oilers in the opening round. Winnipeg has won 4 of their last 5 games on their home ice. Montreal has won four games in a row after rallying from a 3-1 deficit to upset Toronto in their opening round of the playoffs. The Canadiens may be due for a flat effort on an emotional letdown. Montreal has lost 7 of their last 8 games after winning at least three games in a row — and they have lost 20 of their last 28 games after winning at least four of their last five games. And while the Canadiens defeated the Maple Leafs by a 3-1 score in that Game Seven, they have lost 12 of their last 16 games after winning two in a row by more than one goal. Additionally, Montreal has lost 17 of their last 22 games after scoring at least five goals in their last game — and they have lost 19 of their last 27 games after a game where at least eight combined goals were scored. The Canadiens keep living out of suitcases to prepare for this game — and they have lost 9 of their last 13 games when playing their third game in five days on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Winnipeg has won 28 of their last 42 games when avenging a loss where they allowed at least four goals — and they have won 11 of their last 15 games when playing with revenge from a loss on their home ice. Montreal also defeated the Jets by a 5-3 score in their final meeting in the regular season — but the Jets have won 15 of their last 23 games when playing with double-revenge against their opponents. 25* NHL USA Network Game of the Year with the money-line on the Winnipeg Jets (12) versus the Montreal Canadiens (11). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-03-21 |
Nuggets v. Blazers -4.5 |
Top |
126-115 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 28 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Portland Trail Blazers (546) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (545) in Game Six of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Portland (44-33) looks to rebound from their epic 147-140 double-overtime loss at Denver as a 2-point underdog on Tuesday. Denver took a 3-2 lead in the series with the victory.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TRAIL BLAZERS MINUS THE POINTS: Damian Lillard was sublime in Game Four with 55 points on 17 of 24 shooting which including tying a playoff record with 12 made 3s — and he bailed out Portland with buzzer-beating shots in regulation and the first overtime to keep his team alive. But his teammates did not offer much help. The Blazers’ supporting cast to Lillard made only 1 of their 19 shot attempts in overtime. Returning home should help where the role players are more comfortable. Portland has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better on the road. Additionally, the Trail Blazers have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a loss on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. Now after winning Game One of this series, Portland has lost and failed to cover the point spread in three of the last four games in this series. But the Blazers have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after losing three of four — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after only covering the point spread once in their last four games. Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 125 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games after a game where at least 235 combined points were scored. Michael Porter, Jr. had his best game in the playoffs on Tuesday by nailing 10 of his 13 shots en route to 26 points — but he sleepwalked his way through in Game Four and has yet to demonstrate the consistency to be a reliable Number Two to Nikola Jokic. Head coach Michael Malone has gotten surprisingly great play from the quartet of guards he is deploying in lieu of the injuries to Jamal Murray, Will Barton, and P.J. Dozier. Austin Rivers, Facundo Campazzo, Markus Howard, and Monte Morris have combined to average 41.2 PPG in this series while averaging 7.6 made 3-pointers per game on 42.7% shooting from behind the arc. With the three injured guards higher up on the depth chart still out tonight, can this group continue to put up these numbers? Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Nuggets have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games as a dog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Furthermore, Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight playoff games when they were leading in the series — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 opportunities to close out a series.
FINAL TAKE: Portland has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 23 opportunities to exact same-season revenge. 25* NBA 1st Round Northwest Division Playoff Game of the Year with the Portland Trail Blazers (546) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (545). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-02-21 |
Golden Knights v. Avalanche OVER 5.5 |
Top |
2-3 |
Loss |
-100 |
8 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 10:08 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Vegas Golden Knights (79) and the Colorado Avalanche (80) in Game Two of their West Division Finals series. THE SITUATION: Vegas (44-17-3) looks to bounce back from their 7-1 loss to the Avalanche on Sunday. Colorado (44-13-4) has won ten games in a row with the victory.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Avalanche offensive attack looks unstoppable right now. Colorado has scored at least four goals in seven straight games — and they have scored at least five goals in six of these games. Colorado has played 4 straight Overs after a win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after scoring at least five goals in their last game. Additionally, the Avalanche have 12 of their last 13 games Over the Total after winning at least four games in a row. They have played 9 straight Overs after scoring at least four goals in four straight games. They have won every game in the postseason by at least three goals — and they have then played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after winning at least three straight games by at least three goals. The Avalanche are likely to give up their share of goals tonight as well — they have not registered a shutout in six straight games. Colorado has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after not allowing more than two goals in their last game. The Avalanche stay at home where they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total — and they have played 7 straight Overs when playing at home with two days of rest. The Over is also 19-7-1 in Colorado’s last 27 playoff games when favored. Vegas continues to play without one of their top defensemen in Brayden McNabb is in COVID quarantine. The Golden Knights have allowed more than one goal in four straight games. Despite scoring only one time on Sunday, their expected goals in all situations was 2.39. They were also defending against Colorado power plays for much of that game. Vegas has played 7 straight playoff games Over the Total as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: The Golden Knights have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total when avenging a loss by at least four goals. 25* NHL 2nd Round Wednesday NBC Sports Network Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Vegas Golden Knights (79) and the Colorado Avalanche (80). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-02-21 |
Wizards v. 76ers UNDER 229.5 |
Top |
112-129 |
Loss |
-100 |
1 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Wizards (537) and the Philadelphia 76ers (538) in Game Five of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Washington (36-42) kept their season alive on Monday with their 122-114 upset victory against the 76ers as an 8.5-point underdog. Philadelphia (52-24) had been on a five-game winning streak.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Sixers will be without Joel Embiid for at least this game after he injured his back early in the game on Monday. He only played 11:24 minutes of the game. His absence played a large role in Philly shooting only 41.7% from the field. Embiid plays a critical role for the team on both ends of the court — but his impact is probably more important on offense. The 76ers score +11.2 more points per 100 possessions with Embiid on the court this season. In this series, the Sixers have scored +38 more points per 100 possessions with Embiid playing. They are scoring only 104.9 points per 100 possessions without Embiid in this series with a 49.4% effective field goal percentage. As it is, Philadelphia has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The 76ers have also played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after an upset loss. Philadelphia has also played 35 of their last 50 home games Under the Total after a game where at least 235 combined points were scored. Washington got 12 first quarter points from Davis Bertans to keep them competitive early in the game. But Bertans later suffered a calf strain that will likely keep him out the rest of this series. He is critical to the Wizards’ offense since he is the team’s best 3-pointer shooter — he made 39.4% of his shots from behind the arc in the regular season. His long distance shooting helps to open up space for Bradley Beal and Russell Westbrook to slash to the basket. Washington only made 35.6% of their 3-pointers in the regular season -- ranking 24th in the league — even with a healthy Bertans. Washington has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after pulling off an upset win as an underdog getting at least 7 points. The Wizards have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Washington has also played 10 of their last 14 road games Under the Total as an underdog of up to six points.
FINAL TAKE: In the 10 games in late March that the Sixers played without Embiid, 7 of these games finished Under the Total. Philadelphia has played 4 of their last 5 playoff games Under the Total when favored. 25* NBA 1st Round Eastern Conference Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Washington Wizards (537) and the Philadelphia 76ers (538). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-01-21 |
Lakers +5.5 v. Suns |
Top |
85-115 |
Loss |
-110 |
23 h 50 m |
Show
|
At 10:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Lakers (525) plus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (526) in Game Five of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (45-32) looks to rebound from their 100-92 upset loss at home to the Suns as a 6.5-point favorite on Sunday. Phoenix (53-23) has won five of their last seven games after evening this series at 2-2.
REASONS TO TAKE THE LAKERS PLUS THE POINTS: The tenor of Game Four changed with Anthony Davis suffering a groin injury that limited him to playing only 19:24 minutes. He is doubtful to play on Tuesday with what has been described as a painful injury. Even without Davis, Los Angeles will be tough to beat. LeBron James remains the straw that stirs the drink in the NBA. His “supporting cast” should step up for this game. And head coach Frank Vogel has two days to make adjustments specific for the Suns. The Lakers played 18 games this season with James on the court playing without Davis. Los Angeles won 11 of these contests. Los Angeles outscored their opponents by +7.1 points per 100 possessions with James on the court without Davis. This Lakers’ roster is improved from the one that won the NBA title in the bubble last year. Dennis Schroeder and Montrezl Harrell are nice new additions that can provide scoring. Wes Matthews is a veteran who can provide reliable minutes. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is listed as questionable with a knee injury — but he says he is feeling better. His return will help. Expect Alex Caruso and Marc Gasol to play more minutes in place of Davis. Caruso is a valuable swiss army knife energy player. And while Gasol’s minutes have declined as the season went on in his first in a Lakers’ uniform, that is because he is not a good fit with Davis on the court. He is a valuable piece without Davis being available. As it is, Los Angeles should shoot better tonight after making only 39.5% of their shots on Sunday, the lowest shooting effort in their last 11 games. They made just 13 of their 40 shots from behind the arc — they should improve on that 32% shooting mark. The Lakers make 36.3% of their 3-pointers on the road. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a loss to a divisional rival. The Lakers have also covered 4 of their 6 games played this season on the road with the Total set in the 200 to 209.5 point range. This remains a team that has covered the point spread in 24 of their last 32 playoff games when tied in the series. Phoenix played their best defensive game in their last 22 games by holding the Lakers to 39.5% shooting. But the Suns have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after an upset victory on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight games when playing at home after an upset win on the road as an underdog. Additionally, Phoenix is 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a point spread win. Even with Davis playing less than 20 minutes on Sunday, Phoenix only scored 100 points. The Suns are only hitting 33% of their shots from behind the arc in this series. The Lakers will continue to play stout defense. Los Angeles led the NBA in the regular season by holding their opponents to just 106.8 points per 100 possessions — and this includes Davis missing a big chunk of the season. Furthermore, the Suns are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games when favored.
FINAL TAKE: This is the game where the lack of playoff experience for this Suns team (outside Chris Paul and Jae Crowder) will likely play a role. Phoenix may win this game — but In LeBron, I Trust to make this contest a coin flip at the end (at least). James missed six of his seven shots from behind the arc on Sunday — he will play better. The Lakers have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games when avenging a loss at home. 25* NBA 1st Round Pacific Division Underdog of the Year with the Los Angeles Lakers (525) plus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (526). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-31-21 |
76ers v. Wizards UNDER 231 |
Top |
114-122 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia 76ers (511) and the Washington Wizards (512) in Game Four of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (52-23) has won five games in a row with their 132-103 road victory against the Wizards as a 5-point favorite on Saturday. Washington (35-42) has lost eight of their last nine games as they face elimination trailing 0-3 in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The 76ers made 58.6% of their shots on Saturday which was the best shooting percentage for them in their last 68 games. While I appreciate that the Wizards have no answer for Joel Embiid, they are not likely to shoot that well from the field again tonight. Philadelphia is averaging 125.7 PPG on 54.5% shooting from the field in this series. The last team to do that was the 1985 Los Angeles Lakers with Magic Johnson and Kareem-Abdul Jabbar. It is simply very difficult to continue shooting and scoring at such a prolific rate — even against mediocre defensive teams. And if the Sixers are winning this game easily, head coach Doc Rivers is likely to rest his starters to ensure nothing happens injury-wise before their showdown with Milwaukee in the next round of the playoffs. As it is, Philadelphia has played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total on the road. The 76ers have also played 10 of their last 13 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. And in their last 15 road games as a favorite, Philadelphia has played 12 of these games Under the Total. Additionally, the 76ers have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when leading in a playoff series — and they have played 4 of their last 5 playoff games Under the Total when leading in a playoff series. Washington should play better on defense — the Sixers’ 58.6% field goal percentage was their highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last 69 games. The Wizards were playing better on defense to close out the regular season. Once they got back to full health, Washington went on a 17 of 22 winning streak where they ranked eighth in the NBA in Defensive Efficiency. They have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a loss at home by 10 or more points. The Wizards have also played 17 of their last 24 games Under the Total after a loss by 20 or more points. And in their last 21 games after just a point spread loss, Washington has played 15 of these games Under the Total. The Wizards only made 39.6% of their shots on Saturday — and they have a fundamental problem in this series. Washington lives close to the basket on offense — they led the NBA in the regular season with the most shot attempts and the highest field goal percentage from three feet to ten feet from the basket. But with Joel Embiid patrolling the paint, the Sixers have a rim protector that is stifling the Wizards’ attack. Washington stays at home for Game Four where they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total — and they have 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total at home with the Total set in the 220s. Additionally, the Wizards have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Russell Westbrook and Ish Smith are both questionable for this game with injuries. Westbrook is dealing with a right ankle sprain. If they don’t play, the offensive attack for the Wizards will be shorthanded. Even if they play, their injuries may limit their shooting effectiveness. Washington has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when hosting the 76ers. 25* NBA 1st Round Monday TNT Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia 76ers (511) and the Washington Wizards (512). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-31-21 |
Canadiens v. Maple Leafs UNDER 5.5 |
Top |
3-1 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Montreal Canadiens (63) and the Toronto Maple Leafs (64) in Game Seven of their North Division Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Montreal (27-24-11) forced a climactic Game Seven with their 3-2 victory in overtime on Saturday. Toronto (38-16-8) has blown a 3-1 series lead.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Maple Leafs have not won a playoff series in 17 years — and now they face their nightmare scenario of blowing a big lead in a Game Seven on their home ice in front of their very anxious fans. The pressure will be tremendous — and I expect Toronto to be very tight tonight. Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner have not handled the pressure very well so far in this series. Both players have generated only four points in the first six games of this series — and only Matthews has scored with one goal. These players may be tired — head coach Sheldon Keefe is playing both stars for plenty of minutes including Marner serving on the Power Play Kill Unit. Previous head coach Mike Babcock managed minutes much differently before getting canned last year for not playing Mathews enough in regular-season games. Well, Babcock has won Stanley Cups — and Keefe was a minor league coach before getting promoted. The overtime periods in the last two games have not helped the energy levels of these stars — and Toronto has played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total after losing two games in a row in overtime. The Maple Leafs have also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing their sixth or more games in ten days (this series started on May 20th with Game Two on May 22nd). Additionally, Toronto has played 5 of their last 7 playoff games Under the Total when favored — and the Under is 7-3-1 in their last 11 games against teams with a losing record. Montreal has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a win — and they have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a win at home. The Canadiens have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than two goals in their last game. And while Montreal took a 2-0 lead by scoring two goals in the third period — but they then allowed two goals in the final nine minutes of the game to force overtime. The Canadiens have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total after allowing two or more goals in the third period. Carey Price has found his game in this series — the goaltender he has a 2.44 Goals-Against-Average against the fourth highest-scoring team in the NHL with a .926 save percentage. He has a .877 save percentage against high danger scoring chances which is one of the reasons that Matthews and Marner are slumping. Montreal has played 15 of their last 22 games on the road Under the Total as an underdog — and the Under is 20-5-4 in the Canadiens’ last 29 games in the playoffs as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Toronto has played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total when playing with revenge. The Under is also 8-3-1 in the last 12 games between these two teams. 25* NHL 1st Round Monday NBC Sports Network Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Montreal Canadiens (63) and the Toronto Maple Leafs (64). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-30-21 |
Clippers v. Mavs UNDER 221 |
Top |
106-81 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (507) and the Dallas Mavericks (508) in Game Four of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (48-27) won the first game in this series on Friday with their 118-108 victory at Dallas as a 2.5-point road favorite as a 2.5-point favorite. Dallas (44-31) holds a 2-1 lead in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Clippers have improved their shooting from the field in each game in this series after making 57.1% of their shots in Game Three. That was the highest field goal percentage for this Los Angeles team in their last 20 games. The Clippers made only 44.9% of their shots in Game One. Even with head coach Tyron Lue substituting defense for offense with his benching of Patrick Beverley for Reggie Jackson, LA is due for some regression on offense. The Clippers have been scoring at an unsustainable 127.5 points per 100 possession rate in this series. The Under is 5-1-1 in Los Angeles’ last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread win. The Clippers have also seen the Under go 4-1-1 in their last 6 games when playing with one day of rest. Los Angeles stays on the road where they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home — and the Under is 7-2-2 in their last 9 playoff games when favored. Dallas made 20 of their 39 shots from behind the arc in the losing effort on Friday. They are making 50.5% of their shots from distance in this series which is simply unsustainable — especially if they continue to launch 36.3 shots from 3-point land per game as they have in the first three games in this series. The Mavericks made only 36.2% of their 3-pointers in the regular season — and the Clippers were sixth-best in the NBA by holding their opponents to 35.5% shooting from behind the arc. Luka Doncic is dealing with a neck issue as well — so while he will likely play, his super-human shooting skills may not be as spectacular in this Game Four. The Dallas is defense ranked only 21st for the season in Defensive Efficiency — but they improved to 13th over the last 15 games of the regular season. Head coach Rick Carlisle can get his group to play better on that end of the court. The Mavericks have played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total on their home court. They have also played 10 of their last 13 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, Dallas has played 7 of their last 8 home games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 21 of their last 27 games Under the Total as an underdog. And in their last 15 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%, the Mavericks have played 12 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: Dallas has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when avenging a double-digit loss on their home court. 25* NBA Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (507) and the Dallas Mavericks (508). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-30-21 |
Golden Knights v. Avalanche UNDER 5.5 |
Top |
1-7 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 41 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Vegas Golden Knights (53) and the Colorado Avalanche (54) in Game One of their West Division Finals series. THE SITUATION: Vegas (44-16-3) advanced to this series with their 4-3 victory against Minnesota in Game Seven of their opening-round series on Friday. Colorado (43-13-4) has won nine games in a row after completing their four-game sweep of the Blues in St. Louis last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: I awaited confirmation that Robin Lehner was the goaltender tonight for the Golden Knights — and he will be. I like the move by head coach Peter DeBoer since Marc-Andre Fleury was tiring with the every-other-day grind of the first round of the playoffs. Lehner will be fresh and with a chip on his shoulder to demonstrate he deserves consideration to be the starting playoff goaltender as he was last postseason. Lehner had a 1.99 Goals-Against-Average in 16 playoff starts last fall with a .917 save percentage and four shutouts. Lehner posted a 2.29 GAA with a .913 save percentage in 19 regular-season starts this year — and he was a bit more effective on the road with a 2.26 GAA and a .915 save percentage in eight starts. Vegas is already conditioned to grind out low-scoring games after surviving the defensively-minded Wild. They have played 4 straight Unders after scoring at least five goals in their last game. The Golden Knights have also played 22 of their last 32 games on the road Under the Total after a game where at least seven combined goals were scored. And in their last 5 road games as an underdog, Vegas has played 4 of these games Under the Total. I expect Colorado to be rusty with a week off after quickly disposing of the Blues last week. It is telling that the Under is 5-0-1 in the Avalanche’s last 6 games when playing with at least three days between games. They closed out that series with St. Louis with 5-1 and 5-2 victories. Colorado has played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total after playing their last two games on the road — and they have played 22 of their last 32 road games Under the Total after winning their last two games on the road by more than one goal. It may be Nathan MacKinnon who garners most of the attention for the Avalanche — but they play outstanding defense as they ranked third in the league by allowing only 2.36 Goals-Per-Game. They also ranked third in the regular by allowing only 1.98 Goals-Per-Game at even strength — and they led the NHL with just a 1.73 expected goals allowed per game mark at even strength. They held the Blues to only seven goals in their four-game series. Goalie Philipp Grubauer made his claim of being one of the best in the league with a 1.95 Goals-Against-Average and a .922 save percentage. And don’t underestimate the loss of second-line center Nazeem Kadri who is appealing the eight-game suspension he incurred in that opening-round series. Kadri had 11 goals and 21 assists in the regular season.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 6 of their last 8 meetings Under the Total. They last played on May 10th in a game to determine the top seed in the West Division and the eventual President’s Trophy for the best regular-season record. Colorado won in Las Vegas by a 2-1 score — and the Golden Knights have played 22 of their last 33 road games Under the Total when avenging a loss. 25* NHL NBC-TV Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Vegas Golden Knights (53) and the Colorado Avalanche (54). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-30-21 |
Knicks v. Hawks UNDER 209.5 |
Top |
96-113 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 1:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Knicks (501) and the Atlanta Hawks (502) in Game Four of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (43-32) took a 2-1 lead in this series on Friday with their 105-94 victory against the Knicks as a 4.5-point favorite. New York (42-33) trails in the series by a 2-1 margin.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Knicks have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total after a loss on the road. New York has also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Julius Randle is struggling to score in this series. After carrying the Knicks on offense all season, he may be tired. After scoring only 14 points on 2 of 15 shooting on Friday, he is shooting only 30% from the field this season. Atlanta getting DeAndre Hunter back for the postseason after he was injured for most of the season has also played a big role as Hunter is an outstanding defender. The Hawks improved by 7.4 points per 100 possessions on defense with Hunter on the court during the regular season. New York is making only 39.9% from the field in this series. Head coach Tom Thibodeau finally made the inevitable move to put Derrick Rose in the starting lineup for Elfrid Payton who has been a +/- nightmare. Thibs also inserted Taj Gibson in for Nerlens Noel in the starting five. The downside of these moves is that the scoring punch from the Knicks’ second unit is now gone. The formula for New York to win this game is from defense — the DNA of Thibodeau’s coaching. They allowed Atlanta to make 51.9% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last 13 games. The Knicks will play better on defense -- but, unfortunately for them, their 36.2% shooting percentage in Game Three is probably close to who they are in the intensity of the playoffs. They just do not have enough reliable scoring options. Yet, they can return to playing like the team that ranked fourth in the regular season by holding their opponents to scoring only 107.8 points per 100 possessions. They stay on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams winning at least 60% of their games at home. New York has also played 10 of their last 15 road games Under the Total as an underdog getting up to six points. And in their last 17 games with the Total set at 200 or higher, the Knicks have played 11 of these games Under the Total. Atlanta’s 51.9% shooting on Friday was fueled by them margin 16 of their 27 shots from behind the arc. They are not likely to make 59% of their 3-pointers again tonight. The Hawks have played 5 straight Unders after a straight-up win — and they have played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total on their home court after a win. Atlanta has also played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Hawks’ defense has improved since Nate McMillan took over in March. They have held their opponents to just 35.2% shooting from behind the arc under McMillan. They stay at home where they have played 4 straight Unders — and they have played 17 of their last 23 home games Under the Total when favored. They also have played 19 of their last 25 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points.
FINAL TAKE: New York has played 17 of their last 24 games Under the Total when playing with same-season revenge. Additionally, the Knicks have played 16 of their last 20 games Under the Total when avenging a loss on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when avenging a double-digit loss on the road. 25* NBA 1st Round Sunday ABC-TV Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New York Knicks (501) and the Atlanta Hawks (502). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-29-21 |
Maple Leafs v. Canadiens UNDER 5.5 |
Top |
2-3 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 7:38 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Toronto Maple Leafs (41) and the Montreal Canadiens (42) in Game Six of their North Division Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Montreal (26-24-11) extended this series to a sixth game with their 4-3 win in overtime on Thursday. Toronto (38-16-7) can still advance to the North Division Finals tonight given their 3-2 series lead.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Canadiens should be energized with their victory. Not only does winning this game force a climactic seventh game, but the pressure would be enormous on this Maple Leafs team. Montreal has played 7 straight home games Under the Total after a win in overtime. They also have played 8 of their last 9 home games Under the Total after a win by just one goal against a divisional rival. The Canadiens did make things interesting after racing out to a 3-0 lead in the second period. The Maple Leafs forced overtime because of two goals scored in the third period — but Montreal has then played 7 of their last 8 home games Under the Total after allowing at least two goals in the third period in their last game. Goalie Carey Price has had moments of his old brilliance in this series. I suspect he will play well tonight. The Canadiens return home where the Under is 9-3-1 in their last 13 games — and the Under is 7-3-2 in their last 12 games at home as an underdog. Toronto came out flat on Thursday, apparently comfortable with their handle on the series. They will tighten up on defense tonight. I also suspect they will be very tight now that they have kept the door open for the Canadiens. The Maple Leafs have lost five straight close-out games in a playoff series going back to 2018 — they do not want to go back home for a Game Seven (the pressure may work against them). This is a nervy game. Toronto has scored seven goals in their last two games — but they have then played 16 of their last 25 games Under the Total after scoring at least three goals in their last two contests. The Maple Leafs go back on the road where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when favored.
FINAL TAKE: Goalie Jack Campbell may have played his worst game in this series by allowing those early soft goals. He should play better tonight. Toronto has played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total when avenging a loss where they allowed at least four goals. 25* NHL 1st Round Saturday NBC Sports Network Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Toronto Maple Leafs (41) and the Montreal Canadiens (42). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-29-21 |
Nuggets v. Blazers -4 |
Top |
95-115 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 2 m |
Show
|
At 4:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Portland Trail Blazers (574) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (573) in Game Four of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Portland (43-32) has lost the last two games in this series with their 120-115 upset loss to the Nuggets as a 4-point underdog on Thursday. Denver (49-26) has won five of their last seven games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TRAIL BLAZERS MINUS THE POINTS: Portland only shot 45.0% from the field on Thursday which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last five games. They made only 14 of their 45 shots from behind the arc — and they made four straight 3s late in the game (before missing a 66-foot attempt at the buzzer) to make the score appear closer than it was for most of the game which would have changed the dynamic of the contest. After dealing with a host of injuries impacting Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum along with many of the supporting cast, when this team got healthy again, they nailed 43.2% of their 3-pointers from April 27th to the end of the regular season. For the year, the Blazers ranked sixth in the NBA by making 38.5% of their 3-pointers. They should shoot better tonight. Portland has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. The Trail Blazers have lost and failed to cover the point spread in the last two games. But not only has Portland covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after losing two in a row — and they have covered the point spread 9 of their last 13 games after not covering the point spread in two straight games. Head coach Terry Stotts made an adjustment at half-time to go small with Rondae Hollis-Jefferson at center rather than Enes Kanter when starter Jusuf Nurkic needs a breather. The Blazers were outscored by a 16-1 margin when Kanter subbed for Nurkic in the first half. Kanter is simply too much of a liability on defense — and that is before he tries to defend the league MVP Nikola Jokic. Portland was +10 when Kanter was off the court in Game Three — and they even outscored the Nuggets when Stotts went small in the second half without Nurkic on the court. The Trail Blazers have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when favored. Portland has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 playoff games when trailing in the series. Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after an upset win. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning two in a row against a Northwest Division rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 32 games after covering the point spread in two straight games. The Nuggets will once again be playing without three of their top five guards on the depth chart with Jamal Murray out the season and Will Barton and P.J. Dozier still out with injuries. Denver got spectacular performances from Austin Rivers and Facundo Campazzo. Rivers nailed five 3-pointers including three with under two minutes to go which were all daggers. Campazzo has 11 points, eight rebounds, and eight assists. But Campazzo is a 30-year old rookie and Rivers was out of the league after being dropped by Oklahoma City (!) two months ago. Can these two guards replicate their performances? I doubt it. As it is, Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record at home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 point range. The Nuggets have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games when leading in the playoffs.
FINAL TAKE: Portland has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games when avenging a loss at home to their opponent — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when playing with revenge from an upset loss at home. 25* NBA Northwest Division Game of the Month with the Portland Trail Blazers (574) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (573). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-29-21 |
Chelsea v. Manchester City -0.5 |
Top |
1-0 |
Loss |
-106 |
11 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Manchester City (224202) minus the goal-line versus Chelsea (224201) in the Finals of the UEFA Champions League. THE SITUATION: Manchester City advances to the Champions League Final with their 4-1 aggregate score victory against Paris-Saint Germain that culminated on May 4th. Chelsea reached the Finals with their 3-1 aggregate score win against Porto in the Champions League Semifinals that concluded on May 5th. This match is being played on a neutral field in Porto, Portugal.
REASONS TO TAKE MAN CITY MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Manchester City has the opportunity to coronate their dominance of European football with a victory in this match. They have already won the English Premier League title for the third time in the last four seasons by a dominant 14 point margin. But a European title is what has eluded this franchise under manager Pep Guardiola — and he has never won this trophy despite all his previous successes at Barcelona and Bayern Munich. This match means everything — and it is a long time coming for this squad to get the opportunity. Man City comes in ideal circumstances. They are healthy. They are in good form — their last match was an easy 5-0 win at home against Everton last Sunday. They are rested since Guardiola has had the luxury to rotate players to prepare for this showdown all month since they have had the EPL wrapped up for weeks. Chelsea has been a great story since Thomas Tuchel took over as their manager in late January — but cracks are finally showing with the weight of expectations hits this team. The Blues have lost three of their last four matches. For me, the canary in the coal mine was their 1-0 loss to Leicester City in the FA Cup Finals on May 15th. That is a match they should have won to win their first trophy under Tuchel. Instead, the team played tentative and looked overwhelmed by the moment. They avenged that loss three days later in an EPL match — but then in an important final EPL league match to secure placement in the Champions League next year, they laid an egg on the road against Aston Villa on Sunday in a 2-1 loss. This team is losing important recent matches. Chelsea is a team that is lacking in confidence right now. This is a very talented team — but their ascendance to the Champions League Final is perhaps premature to the realistic plan. After winning the EPL title in 2016-17 with a veteran team, the writing was on the wall that a youth movement would need to be embraced. That was the plan when former star player, Frank Lampard, was brought in as their manager last season. After an encouraging season amidst COVID where the younger players showed great promise, management brought in some high-priced transfers to add star power to the group. Kai Havertz and Timo Werner may have outstanding careers in the EPL — but their numbers were disappointing. They are still very young — and that is the rub about this team. While bursting with talent (albeit not necessarily more talented than Man City), this group is just inexperienced in big moments like this. Outside of the immaculate N’Gole Kante who has won EPL titles for Leicester City and Chelsea, as well as a World Cup for France, the Blues, are a roster filled with players that lack playing vital roles in championship runs either for their professional club or their national team. On the other hand, Man City is filled with players with tons of important matches during this four-year run under Guardiola.
FINAL TAKE: If there was any chance that Man City was taking this match lightly, those prospects are lone gone when considering that Chelsea has defeated them twice in the last six weeks. They played on April 17th in the FA Cup Semifinals — an important match — which the Blues won by a 1-0 score. They then played on May 8th in the EPL reverse fixture where Chelsea won again (and Man City did not go out of their way to not play important players) by a 1-0 score. Man City did win the expected goals battle in both those matches but just had bad luck with the final score. It will be very difficult for Chelsea to defeat this team three times in a row. Look for Man City to play one of their best matches in the Guardiola era to overwhelm a Blues side that may be happy to be here. 25* UEFA Champions League Match of the Year with the Manchester City (224202) minus the goal-line versus Chelsea (224201). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-28-21 |
Nets v. Celtics OVER 227 |
Top |
119-125 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 8:35 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Brooklyn Nets (563) and the Boston Celtics (564) in Game Three of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Brooklyn (50-24) took a 2-0 lead in this series with their 130-108 victory at home against Boston as an 8.5-point favorite on Tuesday. Boston (37-38) has lost seven of their last nine games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Big Three of Kevin Durant, James Harden, and Kyrie Irving have been the offensive juggernaut many observers expected when they joined together this season. The Nets are scoring at an incredible 140 points per 100 possession rate so far in this series against an overmatched Celtics’ defense. They made 52.3% of their shots on Tuesday while nailing 17 of their 38 shots (45%) from behind the arc. And while the Brooklyn defense has held Boston to just 106.5 points per 100 possessions, I expect their defensive efforts to wane a bit as they did in the regular season now that this series seems to be well in hand. The Nets have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a win against an Atlantic Division rival. Brooklyn raced out to a 71-47 halftime lead in the game — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after leading by at least 15 points at halftime of their last game. The Nets have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after winning two in a row against divisional rivals. Brooklyn goes back on the road where they have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total with the number set in the 220s. They have also played 5 of their last 7 road games Over the Total when favored by 6.5 to 12 points — and they have played 23 of their last 34 games Over the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. Boston should show fight in this game — and that likely means a better effort on offense after making only 42.4% of their shots on Tuesday. Returning home should help where they are making 47.2% of their shots. I am skeptical that the Celtics can do much to stop this Nets’ offense — they really missed Jaylen Brown who was one of the team’s best on-the-ball defenders. Boston ranked a middling 13th in the league in Defensive Rating during the regular season but they fall to 23rd in the NBA in Defensive Efficiency in their last ten games without Brown. The Celtics have played 36 of their last 52 games Over the Total after a double-digit loss — and they have played 11 of their last 13 home games Over the Total after a loss on the road by double-digits. They also have played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after a loss to a division opponent. This team under head coach Brad Stevens rarely tightens things up on defense after a bad effort. The Over is 20-8-1 in Boston’s last 29 games after allowing at least 125 points in their last game — and they have played 8 of their last 9 home games Over the Total after allowing at least 120 points in their last game. Now they return home where they have played 6 straight Overs — and they have played 6 straight games Over the Total after playing their last two games on the road. Furthermore, the Celtics have played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Kemba Walker is questionable with a knee bone bruise. The Boston offensive attack should still be fine with Payton Pritchard playing more minutes — he averages 13.5 PPG per a 24.6 minutes rate.
FINAL TAKE: The Celtics have played 5 of their last 7 playoff games Over the Total as an underdog under Stevens. 25* NBA 1st Round ABC-TV Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Brooklyn Nets (563) and the Boston Celtics (564). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-27-21 |
Nuggets v. Blazers OVER 227 |
Top |
120-115 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 10:35 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (555) and the Portland Trail Blazers (556) in Game Three of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Denver (48-26) evened this series at 1-1 with their 128-109 victory as a 2-point favorite on Monday. Portland (43-31) has still won seven of their last nine games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Trail Blazers do not have an answer on defense to Nikola Jokic — and the Nuggets were committed to exploiting this vulnerability on Monday. Jokic scored 38 points while making 15 of his 20 shots inside the arc. Head coach Michael Malone made an interesting adjustment for Game Two by having his two guards stand in the corner to create a de-facto three-on-three game which opened up space for Jokic to operate in the paint. This spacing also helped Denver convert 12 of their 28 shots from behind the arc (42.9%). The Trail Blazers are at a significant size disadvantage in this series. Michael Porter is only making 25% of his 3-pointers in this series after leading the team with a 44.5% shooting mark from behind the arc during the regular season — so the scoring ceiling is higher for this team. The extra day of rest will help the Nuggets’ scoring attack — they have played 4 straight Overs when playing with two days of rest. Additionally, Denver has played 13 of their last 19 games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 4 of their last 5 playoff games Over the Total as an underdog. And in their last 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. Portland has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when playing with two days of rest. The Blazers are making 47.6% of their shots in this series along with 36.5% of their 3-pointers — and they can do more. Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum have combined to score 63 and 55 points in this series. The Nuggets are missing Jamal Murray who provided the team’s best on-the-ball defender against opposing guards — and Will Barton is still out tonight with his injury which leaves them very thin when it comes to backcourt defensive options. Portland returns home where they have played 20 of their last 29 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. The Blazers have also played 4 of their last 5 playoff games Over the Total when favored.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 7 meetings Over the Total — and Portland has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total when hosting the Nuggets. Denver can’t cover the Blazers’ backcourt — and Portland can’t cover the Nuggets’ frontcourt. This Game Three should be a wild one. 25* NBA Northwest Division Playoff Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (555) and the Portland Trail Blazers (556). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-27-21 |
Bucks v. Heat +2 |
Top |
113-84 |
Loss |
-113 |
4 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 7:35 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Miami Heat (552) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (551) in Game Three of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Miami (40-34) has lost the first two games of this series with their 132-98 loss at Milwaukee as a 5-point favorite on Monday. Milwaukee (48-26) has won five of their last six games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HEAT PLUS THE POINTS: On the heels of a 34-point loss in Game Two, many pundits are forgetting that this Miami team was in a possession-for-possession battle with the Bucks in the opening game of this series which they lost on a buzzer-beating shot — in overtime. There is a perception held by some that the Heat were flukes in making the NBA Finals last year. While perhaps the team was fortunate and in a better position to make a deep playoff run in the bubble last fall, they should be immediately discounted because of one bad first half. Milwaukee raced out to a 78-51 halftime lead on Monday — but Miami has then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after trailing by at least 20 points in their last game. Additionally, the Heat are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a point spread loss. Miami has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after allowing at least 130 points in their last game. Now after playing their last four games on the road, the Heat return home for the first time since May 13th. Miami has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after playing their last four games on the road — and they are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games at home. The Heat have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 playoff games as an underdog. Milwaukee is likely due for a letdown after their easy win in Game Two. They nailed 22 of their 53 shots from downtown at a sizzling 42% rate. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a double-digit win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a win at home by at least 20 points. The Bucks have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win by 30 or more points. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games after scoring at least 125 points in their last game. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after holding a halftime lead of 20 or more points. Milwaukee has also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after winning their last two games at home. The Bucks hit the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games when favored. Furthermore, Milwaukee has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when favored.
FINAL TAKE: Miami only made 8 of their 28 shots from 3-point land (29%) on Monday after they nailed 20 shots from downtown in Game One. The same Heat culture that helped them thrive in the bubble should lead to a very determined effort tonight. Erik Spoelstra is a great coach — and he has plenty of pieces on the roster from which to make adjustments. A playoff series starts when a team losing on their home court, goes the adage. Miami has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when avenging a 20-point loss on the road. 25* NBA 1st Round Playoff Underdog of the Year with the Miami Heat (552) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (551). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-27-21 |
Canadiens v. Maple Leafs UNDER 5.5 |
Top |
4-3 |
Loss |
-123 |
1 h 33 m |
Show
|
At 7:08 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Montreal Canadiens (21) and the Toronto Maple Leafs (22) in Game Five of their North Division Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Montreal (25-24-11) looks to stave off elimination after losing Game Four of this series on Tuesday by a 4-0 score. Toronto (38-16-6) has won the last three games in a row in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Canadiens’ lack of star power is rearing its head in this series. They have only scored four goals in this series — and they have scored just twice in the last 187:16 minutes of this series. A line with castoffs like Tomas Tatar — a left wing that should both Detroit and then Vegas was comfortable in letting go — on the top line (and being a primary scorer) demonstrates what little scoring talent this team has. Tatar would be a fine left wing on the third line of a playoff team. Playing on the road compounds the problem for Montreal since Toronto head coach Sheldon Keefe can target his best defensive pair against the Canadiens’ best scoring threat line. Younger stars like second-line center Nick Suzuki or Jesperi Kotkaniemi or 5’7 rookie Cole Caufield lack experience to play dominant roles without plenty of help that this team simply does not have — and they sure do miss second line left winger Jonathan Drouin who opted-out of the postseason with a medical issue. Montreal has played 15 of their last 22 road games Under the Total as an underdog. The Canadiens have not scored on their 13 Power Plays in this series. Moving forward, Montreal has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing their third game in four days. Additionally, the Under is 8-3-1 in their last 12 games after a loss by at least three goals — and the Under is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games after a loss by three or more goals at home. The Canadiens perhaps played too loose in Game Four to create more scoring chances — but that style also allowed the Maple Leafs to generate 10 high-danger scoring chances on Tuesday after both teams were only averaging 10.6 combined high-danger scoring chances per game in the first four games of this series. Montreal needs to go back to simply trying to grind out low-scoring games relying on Carey Price. The goalie has been solid with a 2.58 Goals-Against-Average and a .920 save percentage in this series. The Under is 7-1-2 in Toronto’s last 10 games after a win — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a win by three or more goals. The Maple Leafs have also played 15 of their last 20 home games Under the Total after a win by four or more goals on the road. Toronto is getting it done without much production their superstars — Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner have combined for only one point. Goalie Jack Campbell has been great with a 1.01 Goals-Against-Average and a .965 save percentage. The Under is 6-2-1 in their last 9 games after not allowing more than two goals in their last game. Furthermore, the Maple Leafs have played 4 of their last 5 playoff games Under the Total when favored.
FINAL TAKE: Toronto will likely be quite content playing a conservative, defensive-first approach since it is getting them more comfortable for a style that has stymied them in the past when playing Atlantic Division rival Boston. These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total. 25* NHL 1st Round North Division Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Montreal Canadiens (21) and the Toronto Maple Leafs (22). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-26-21 |
Panthers v. Lightning -139 |
Top |
0-4 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 59 m |
Show
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At 8:08 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Tampa Bay Lightning (12) versus the Florida Panthers (11) in Game Six of their Central Division Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (38-18-4) has lost two of the last three games in this series after their 4-1 loss to the Panthers on Monday. Florida (39-17-5) still faces the possibility of elimination trailing 3-2 in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE LIGHTNING WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Tampa Bay should respond with a strong effort tonight as they have won 39 of their last 52 games after a loss by three or more goals in their last game. They have also won 18 of their last 21 games after failing to score more than one goal in their last game. Additionally, the Lightning have won 14 of their last 21 games after allowing at least four goals in their last game. And while Tampa Bay allows two goals in the third period (including one empty netter), they have then won 10 of their last 12 games after allowing two more goals in the third period of their last game. Goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy is not playing bad — he has made +5.6 saves above expectation. Florida is an offensive juggernaut. Vasilevskiy needs more help from his defense. Returning home will help where head coach Jon Cooper gets the final line shift. Vasilevskiy had an 18-2-0 record on home ice this season with a 1.75 Goals-Against-Average and a .936 save percentage. Tampa Bay has won 43 of their last 60 games at home — and they have won 7 of their last 10 home games with the Total set at 6. Florida head coach Joel Quenneville made the desperate move to play rookie Spencer Knight between the pipes on Monday — and the rookie responded with 36 saves on the 37 shots he faced. Quenneville felt compelled to make the move with Sergei Bobrovsky being a failure in goal with a 5.33 Goals-Against-Average and a .841 save percentage in this series (after a 2.91 GAA and .906 save percentage in the regular season) and backup Chris Driedger posting a 3.70 GAA and a .871 save percentage in this series. I have no doubt that Knight is talented — but that was his fifth professional start in his career. He was playing for Boston College two months ago. Now he will be between the pipes in a second elimination game against the reigning Stanley Cup champions who will be throwing the kitchen sink and every trick in the book to rattle the kid — all back at home at Amalie Arena where there will be plenty of fans (because it is Florida). This is a very tough assignment. As it is, the Panthers have lost 7 of their last 10 games as an underdog — and they have lost 9 of their last 11 games in the playoffs as an underdog. Florida has lost 25 of their last 37 games against teams with a winning record. Furthermore, the Panthers have lost 10 of their last 15 playoff games when trailing in the series — and they have lost 4 of their last 5 playoff games when trailing in the series.
FINAL TAKE: Just to maintain perspective, Tampa Bay finished third in the Central Division despite playing without their best player, Nikita Kucherov all season. He has not missed a step in his return to action as he leads the team with nine points. There is no shame in losing to the Panthers twice — they are good. This shaped up to be a six-game series. But Tampa Bay has won 15 of their last 20 games when avenging an upset loss — and they have won 9 of their last 13 games when playing with revenge from a loss by more than one goal. 25* NHL 1st Round Central Division Playoff Game of the Year with the money-line on the money-line on the Tampa Bay Lightning (12) versus the Florida Panthers (11). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-26-21 |
Hawks v. Knicks UNDER 213 |
Top |
92-101 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 40 m |
Show
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At 7:35 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Hawks (543) and the New York Knicks (544) in Game Two of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (42-31) has won five games in a row after their 107-105 victory in Madison Square Garden against the Knicks as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday. New York (41-32) had their three-game winning streak snapped with the loss.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Atlanta allowed the Knicks to make 44.7% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last four games. The Hawks have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a narrow win by six points or less. Atlanta was energized by the return of De’Andre Hunter to the court on Sunday after he missed much of the regular season to injury. Hunter is an excellent on-the-ball defender. The Hawks hold their opponents to -7.4 fewer points per 100 possessions when they have Hunter on the court. Hunter’s defense of the Knicks’ Julius Randle played a large role in his making only 6 of 23 shots from the field in Game One. Atlanta has improved on defense since Nate McMillan took over as head coach — they are third in the NBA by holding their opponents to just 34.9% shooting from downtown. The Knicks has made 42.5% of their 3-pointer since the start of April which was the best mark in the league — but they only made 10 of 30 (33%) shots from behind the arc in Game One. Against this Hawks’ defense jumpstarted by the return of Hunter, I don’t see New York approaching their recent 3-point shooting numbers in this series. Atlanta’s fresh legs will only help their defensive efforts. The Hawks have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing with two days of rest — and they have played 5 straight Unders when playing just their second game in seven days. Additionally, Atlanta has played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total as an underdog. New York allowed the Hawks to make 46.7% of their shots which tied the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last 11 games. The Knicks have an opponent’s field goal percentage of 44.0% — and they have held their last five opponents to just a 41.7% shooting clip even after Sunday’s game. New York has played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a loss by six points or less. They are not likely to get 27 points again from Alec Burks who made 9 of his 13 shots in Game One. But head coach Tom Thibodeau should make some adjustments on defense for this contest. The Knicks have played 15 of their last 23 games Under the Total after winning three of their last four games. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on their home court — and they have played 7 of their last 10 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. Furthermore, New York has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when the favorite.
FINAL TAKE: The Knicks have played 5 of the last 6 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a loss of three points or less. 25* NBA Wednesday TNT Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Hawks (543) and the New York Knicks (544). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-26-21 |
Villarreal v. Manchester United -0.5 |
Top |
1-1 |
Loss |
-106 |
16 h 2 m |
Show
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At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Manchester United (224402) minus the goal-line versus Real Villarreal (224401) in the Finals of the Europa League. THE SITUATION: Manchester United reached the Finals of the Europa League after a 3-2 loss at home to Roma on May 6th which secured their 8-5 aggregate goal victory. Real Villarreal reached the Finals after a 0-0 draw at Arsenal on May 6th gave them a 2-1 aggregate score win. This match will be played on a neutral field in Gdansk, Poland.
REASONS TO TAKE MANCHESTER UNITED MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The challenge in handicapping this match is assessing how significant a loss it is for Man United to likely be without Harry Maguire. Their starting center back has been out most of the month with a knee injury that kept him out of training for this match. The Red Devils' backline defense has looked disheveled without the stabilizing influence that Maguire provides. Maguire is also third in the English Premier League for the most carry yards with the ball going towards the opposition goal — he plays an undervalued in their attack despite not generating a ton of goals or assists. His loss is significant (and I assume he will not make a miraculous recovery, although it sometimes happens in these championship matches). Eric Bailly will likely take his place — he is a solid defender but not the same talent with the ball. Man United has only won twice in their last six matches — but I this team has not had much at stake since reaching the finals of this competition. They have pretty much had second place in the EPL clinched for the last few weeks. Even without an important piece in Maguire, this remains a team that finished ahead of Liverpool and Chelsea in the English Premier League, one team that won the EPL last year, and another club that is playing Man City on Saturday the European Champions League title. The EPL was — by far — the strongest league in Europe this year, and here comes their second-place team. And after manager Ole Gunnar Solskjaer did not play his starters on Sunday in their 2-1 victory at Wolverhampton, his starters are rested and ready. Villarreal comes off a 2-1 loss at Real Madrid on Saturday which had them finish in sixth place in La Liga this season. The Spanish top flight was down this season — Atletico Madrid, Barcelona, and Real Madrid did not find much success in European competitions. Man United dominated a Sevilla side by a 4-0 aggregate score in the Round of 32 of this tournament that finished in fifth place, four points clear of Real Villarreal. Manager Unai Emery deploys a conservative approach — the Yellow Submarine are not likely to be aggressive in attacking Man United missing Maguire on their backline.
FINAL TAKE: Ultimately, Manchester United still has too much talent on the pitch for Real Villarreal. The Yellow Submarine may not have one of their best players either with midfielder Samuel Chukwueze having not played since getting injured in the second leg against Arsenal. There is a difference in class between these two teams — even without Maguire — that makes a victory at least one goal in regulation time the likely result. 25* Europa League Match of the Year with Manchester United (224402) minus the goal-line versus Real Villarreal (224401). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-25-21 |
Mavs v. Clippers -6 |
Top |
127-121 |
Loss |
-111 |
11 h 23 m |
Show
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At 10:35 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Clippers (536) minus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (535) in Game Two of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (47-26) looks to rebound from their 113-103 upset loss to the Mavericks in the opening game of this series as a 6-point underdog on Saturday. Dallas (43-30) has won seven of their last nine games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CLIPPERS MINUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles closed out the regular season with twelve wins in their last sixteen games — but they need to get back to business after being upset in all three games of their current losing streak. One of those losses was their controversial upset loss on the last day of the regular season where they tanked the game to avoid the Lakers in the first round — the smart move since the reigning champions have a tough series of their own with the Phoenix Suns before a hypothetical “Battle for Los Angeles.” But head coach Tyron Lue needs to get his team back to playing good basketball. That should happen tonight. The Clippers have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after a double-digit loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a loss by 10 or more points at home. Kawhi Leonard and Paul George combined to make only 17 of their 40 shots from the field (42.5%) including going just 3 of 14 from behind the arc. As a team, Los Angeles made only 11 of 40 (27.5%) of their 3-pointers in Game One which was far below their 41.1% clip from downtown during the regular season. Besides interior players Serge Ibaka and Ivica Zubic, the Clippers’ top-11 players all make at least 39.7% of their 3-pointers. Los Angeles also needs to tighten up on defense after allowing the Mavericks to make at least 50% of their shots. The Clippers have let all three of their opponents during their recent losing streak make at least 50% of their shots — but they have then covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after allowing their last three opponents to make at least 47% of their shots. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 home games when favored by 6.5 to 12 points. Lue learned early in Game One that Zubac will be a liability in this series given his defense on the pick-and-roll. Luka Doncic torched him on Saturday. But Dallas is due for a visit from the Regression Gods after they made 50% of their shots from the field while nailing 17 of their 36 shots from downtown. That was the best field goal percentage in their last five games — and they did not even have the shooting of J.J. Redick who is out with a heel injury. The Mavericks have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after an upset victory by 10 or more points. This remains a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games in the playoffs as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: The Clippers are as healthy as they have been all season with Patrick Beverley, Serge Ibaka, and Marcus Morris all back in the mix after missing 35, 31, and 15 games respectively. Leonard and George missed 20 and 18 games as well. Los Angeles has now lost their last two games to the Mavericks after suffering a 105-89 loss at home to Dallas as a 2-point favorite on March 17th. The Clippers have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 home games when avenging a loss where their opponent scored at least 110 points. LA has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when playing with double-revenge. 25* NBA 1st Round Western Conference Playoffs Game of the Year with the Los Angeles Clippers (536) minus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (535). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-24-21 |
Islanders v. Penguins -134 |
Top |
3-2 |
Loss |
-134 |
1 h 31 m |
Show
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At 7:08 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the money-line on the Pittsburgh Penguins (74) versus the New York Islanders (73) in Game Five of their East Division Semifinals playoff series. THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (39-17-4) looks to rebound from losing Game Four of this series by a 4-1 score. New York (34-19-7) has still lost six of their last nine games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MONEY-LINE ON THE PENGUINS: Pittsburgh has still won five of their last seven games even after their loss on Saturday. The Penguins closed out the regular season on an 18-5-2 run. They should bounce-back with a big effort tonight as they have won 5 straight games after a loss by three or more goals. They have also won 28 of their last 39 games after not scoring more than two goals in their last game. Pittsburgh is 23-5-2 on their home ice this season — and they have won 41 of their last 55 home games when favored. Additionally, the Pens have won 14 of their last 20 games against teams with a winning record. New York has lost 4 of their last 5 games after a win — and they have lost 11 of their last 17 games on the road after a victory. The Islanders have lost 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have lost 5 of their last 7 road games as an underdog. Furthermore, New York has lost 6 of their last 8 games as an underdog — and they have lost 7 of their last 10 games playoff games as a dog.
FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh has won 11 of their last 12 games when avenging a loss by more than one goal. 25* NHL 1st Round East Division Playoff Game of the Year with the money-line on the Pittsburgh Penguins (74) versus the New York Islanders (73). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-23-21 |
Grizzlies v. Jazz -9 |
Top |
112-109 |
Loss |
-100 |
5 h 8 m |
Show
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At 9:35 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Utah Jazz (516) minus the points versus the Memphis Grizzlies (515) in Game One of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Utah (52-20) goes into the postseason with seven wins in their last nine games after their 121-99 victory at Sacramento as an 11.5-point favorite last Sunday. Memphis (40-34) has won seven of their last eight games after their upset 117-112 win at Golden State as a 4.5-point favorite on Friday night.
REASONS TO TAKE THE JAZZ MINUS THE POINTS: Utah should build off the momentum from last week — they have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 34 games after a double-digit win. They have also covered the point spread in 25 of their last 36 games after a point spread victory. And while they have covered the point spread in two straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games after covering the point spread in two straight games. The Jazz hope that their star point guard Donovan Mitchell returns to the court tonight — he is listed as probable. Without him, the Utah Train did not derail. The Jazz won ten of their fifteen games after Mitchell’s ankle injury — and their +9.8 Net Rating over that span was tops in the NBA. Their Defensive Rating of 106.2 in their last 15 games is the best mark in the NBA. Utah is also third in the league in Offensive Rating due to a bevy of 3-point shooters. The Jazz average 43.3 shots from behind the arc per game — and they are fourth in the NBA by making 38.9% of these shots. The Grizzlies are 18th in the league by allowing their opponents to make 36.7% of their shots from behind the arc. Utah returns home where they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 32 home games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Jazz have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 home games with the Total set in the 210 to 219.5 point range. Memphis may be due for a letdown after their whirlwind week which included winning two straight single-elimination games. The team racked up the frequent flier miles — traveling from San Francisco last Sunday (after playing the Warriors to close out the regular season) back to Memphis to Los Angeles on Friday and now Salt Lake City. Playing at the higher altitude won’t help their cause either after this grueling week. As it is, the Grizzlies have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread win. Furthermore, Memphis has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 road games against teams winning at least 60% of their games on their home court.
FINAL TAKE: Utah swept the three-game regular-season encounters between these two teams. The Grizzlies have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 playoff games as an underdog. 25* NBA 1st Round Sunday TNT Game of the Year with the Utah Jazz (516) minus the points versus the Memphis Grizzlies (515). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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