Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-04-15 | Philadelphia Eagles v. Washington Redskins +3 | Top | 20-23 | Win | 110 | 101 h 15 m | Show |
8* Washington (1:00 ET): I played against the Redskins (and won!) in Week 3, but off a long break (they played last Thursday) and back at home, I see them covering the spread against an Eagles team that I successfully played on in Week 3. But, if I'm being honest, that was a pretty shaky win by Philly as they were shutout in the second half by the Jets and outagined for the game 323-231. A Darren Sproles punt return and a +3 edge in turnovers were the keys in that outright win as road dogs, but Chip Kelly's team still seems to be pretty shaky and the idea of them laying points on the road, in a divisional matchup, doesn't seem right. Washington, believe it or not, has actually outgained all three opponents this year. Take the points. When you think Chip Kelly, you think offense, but after finishing w/ only the slightest of edges in total yards (399-395) in a Week 1 loss to the Falcons, this supposed up-tempo attack has been stuck in quicksand, failing to gain even 250 total yards in either of the last two contests. I've never been a big Sam Bradford fan and so far he's completing less than 38 percent of his passes on third down despite a measly 3.48 yards per attempt. This despite not even being blitzed all that much. Overall, he completed just 50 percent of his passes for only 118 yards last week vs. the Jets. Surprisingly, without DeMarco Murray, the run game was successful against the Jets. But taken as a whole, this group has to be considered a major disappointment, considering the dollars involved. For a second straight week, Murray remains questionable and even if he did play, I don't think he'd be all that effective. With the potential for terrible weather and two offenses that have generally lacked explosiveness, taking points here simply seems like it's the way to go. Ironically, I believe it will be the unheralded Washington run game that will be the difference in this one. The Eagles' defense is #1 against the run in terms of yards per carry allowed (3.1), but at the same time has allowed at least 250 yards passing in every game. I think the Redskins will be able to establish the run here after only 20 attempts on the ground (for 88 yards) last week, which was due to falling behind the Giants early. In the first two games, the 'Skins ran it 37 times apiece for 161 and 182 yards respectively. Last year against the Eagles, Kirk Cousins set career highs in both passing yards (427) and TD's (3) vs. this Eagles defense. 8* Washington |
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10-04-15 | Kansas City Chiefs +4 v. Cincinnati Bengals | Top | 21-36 | Loss | -105 | 101 h 15 m | Show |
8* Kansas City (1:00 ET): The Chiefs looked pretty bad Monday night, despite a virtual "mini-bye" as they played Thursday of the previous week. But playing in Lambeau Field can make any team not named "the Packers" look pretty bad and in retrospect I made a very bad call not respecting Green Bay's homefield advantage more. Now KC is really desperate at 1-2 having to visit Cincinnati. While the Bengals are one of seven teams to still be unbeaten, two of the games have been close and their one blowout (over Oakland) saw them benefit from a starting QB having to leave the game due to injury. While Cincy has been consistently good the L5 years w/ Andy Dalton at quarterback, they've also won a number of these close games (which goes AGAINST the Dalton playoff narrative). I think this one is due to go "the other way" for them. Take the points. The Chiefs defense, which looked really great the first two games, clearly had no answer for Aaron Rodgers last week. Dalton is simply not that same caliber signal caller. Remember that Kansas City was also less than a minute and a horrific breakdown away from being 2-0. They should have beaten Peyton Manning and Denver (allowed less than 300 total yds) even w/ a poor turnover margin. This is not a team built to trade points w/ the likes of the Packers, but this week's matchup should be more to Andy Reid's liking. That being said, the offense has averaged 26.3 points per game so far, even though much of last week's production came in "garbage time." The Bengals defense won't blitz as much as the Packers did, which should allow Smith time to throw and (hopefully) get the ball downfield. This spot just reeks of a classic "sandwich spot" for Cincinnati as they are off the big division win over Baltimore and have a much bigger home game looming, vs. Seattle. While they've been a strong home team in recent seasons, this will also be the most points they've been asked to lay in a game this season. I am not sold on the Bengals being as good as they've looked through three games. They've played a much easier schedule than has Kansas City, whose sense of desperation should be the difference in this one. 8* Kansas City |
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09-28-15 | Kansas City Chiefs +7 v. Green Bay Packers | Top | 28-38 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 35 m | Show |
10* Kansas City (8:30 ET): I think that, for many, the main concern here w/ the Chiefs is how they will respond from last Thursday's heartbreaking loss to Denver. Blowing a 14-0 lead at home to Peyton Manning isn't unprecedented by any means, but it was the manner in which it happened that had KC fans/backers (me being among the latter) scratching their heads. By now, you've all seen it. After allowing Manning to drive down the field and tie the game 24-24, a Jamaal Charles fumble (in the final seconds!) was scooped up and returned for a TD. As bad a loss as it was, going from Thursday to Monday is almost like a "mini-bye" and should give the Chiefs adequate time to recover. I'd actually be more concerned w/ a Green Bay hangover here as the Packers are coming off a high-profile, revenge spot against the Seahawks. Take the points. The record shows that teams tend to struggle the week after playing Seattle. Look at St. Louis, who beat them in Week 1, only to come back and lose at Washington the following week. Going back to last year, that now makes it ELEVEN straight losses for teams the week after playing the Seahawks! The theory behind this is similar to the Steelers teams of old as Seattle is a physical team that definitely "takes something out of an opponent." As I stated earlier, throw in the fact that for the Packers, last week was a huge revenge game (for LY's NFC Championship) and tonight's spot is even more troubling. The bodies are also starting to pile up for Green Bay. You already know that WR Jordy Nelson is out for the year. Top offensive lineman Brian Bulaga is out 4-6 weeks. Two key players in the secondary (Morgan Burnett & Sam Shields) may not play tonight. Neither RB Eddie Lacy nor WR Davante Adams is 100 percent. That Bulaga injury is especially key here when considering the Chiefs' outstanding pass rush. Through two games, they have eight sacks. Kansas City held Denver to only 299 total yards last week and only two touchdowns before the final minute. Despite five turnovers by the offense, two of them deep in Broncos' territory, they still had a very reasonable shot at taking the game. Including a Week 1 win at Houston, the Chiefs are now 12-6 ATS their last 18 road games. 10* Kansas City |
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09-27-15 | Buffalo Bills v. Miami Dolphins -2.5 | Top | 41-14 | Loss | -115 | 122 h 33 m | Show |
10* Miami (4:25 ET): It's been awhile since these two long-time AFC East rivals played a meaningful game. Though it's still only Week 3, this one has a pretty important, make or break type feel to it. Both the Dolphins and Bills lost last week and it both instances, the setbacks had to be considered disappointing. Miami, who wasn't all that impressive in a Week 1 win at Washington, lost to lowly Jacksonville. Buffalo, off a very impressive Wk 1 victory at home over the Colts, seemed to treat last week's matchup w/ New England as almost a "Super Bowl type affair." Unfortunately for them, like those Bills teams of old who played in actual Super Bowls, the end result was a loss. Before the year, I felt Miami was a better team than Buffalo, so I feel they are a bargain here laying the short number. Though the final score said 40-32 last week for the Bills against the Patriots, that's a bit misleading in the sense that they weren't really that competitive. After scoring a touchdown on its opening drive, Buffalo would be dominated for the balance of the first three quarters, getting outscored 37-6. A late flurry got Bills fans hopes back up, but it was not to be. I think that will be a difficult loss to overcome, especially now that they're playing on the road. Remember that this will be QB Tyrod Taylor's first road start. The defense didn't look nearly as good last week either, giving up an insane 466 yards passing to Tom Brady. Penalties also continue to be an issue as through two games the Bills have committed 25 of them for 253 yards. Honestly, splitting a pair of road games isn't the end of the world for the Dolphins. QB Ryan Tannehill could be better, but hasn't thrown an interception in his last 150 pass attempts and is more than capable of having a big game here. Remember that the Bills were +3 in turnovers in their one win this year and that was against a Colts team that may not be as good as we all thought. A 22-9 win over the Bills last year at home actually snapped a three-game series losing streak for Miami. But, including that, the home team has covered six of the last seven matchups and going "hand in hand" w/ that is the fact the home team is on a 5-1 ATS run in the rivalry. I also expect this Dolphins' defense, led by Ndamukong Suh, to start playing better. Buffalo's offensive line, I thought, was a huge question mark coming into the season, so I'm surprised they've been able to run the ball so effectively in the first two games. The Dolphins "hold serve" at home. 10* Miami |
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09-27-15 | Philadelphia Eagles +2.5 v. NY Jets | Top | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 118 h 9 m | Show |
8* Philadelphia (1:00 ET): I think that if you asked around, most bettors would think that this is not the time or the matchup to be jumping on the Eagles. They're 0-2 and looked positively inept last week at home vs. Dallas, losing 20-10 while gaining just 226 total yards of offense. Only seven of those yards came on the ground, which is downright embarrassing when you consider the money they are currently paying to running backs. But I happen to believe that this is an excellent "buy low" opportunity on Chip Kelly's team, which can't possibly play any worse. We've already seen a massive swing in the line for this game as the Eagles opened as the favorite on the road. There have been two previous instances this year where we witnessed a swing like this (MIN-SF Wk 1, TEN-CLE Wk 2) and both times saw the team the linesmakers initially had favored take care of business. The Jets are off a high profile win Monday night over the Colts that has only further served to overvalue them in the marketplace. Keep in mind that I was on the Jets (in the first half) and even I was shocked how thoroughly they dominated one of the perceived AFC favorites. But this is a short week and I'm guessing there could be a letdown. Over the L3 seasons, the Jets are 0-4 SU/1-3 ATS the week after playing on Monday Night Football. Turnovers have been positively huge for Gang Green to this point as they've forced 10 of them, including a preposterous 8 for 8 on fumble recoveries! That kind of luck simply cannot continue, at least to that degree. The Jets are also dealing w/ a ton of injuries coming out of the Monday night game and WR Eric Decker, RB Chris Ivory and CB Darrelle Revis all may not play Sunday (check status). For Philadelphia, RB DeMarco Murray will play and that's certainly a good thing in spite of last week's pitiful performance. Keep in mind that this team was a missed field goal away from pulling off a huge second half comeback at Atlanta in Week 1. The defense allowed only one touchdown last week and it wasn't until late in the fourth quarter. In what could very well end up being a low-scoring game, taking the points is the way to go. 8* Philadelphia |
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09-27-15 | New Orleans Saints +9.5 v. Carolina Panthers | Top | 22-27 | Win | 100 | 41 h 22 m | Show |
10* New Orleans (1:00 ET): While I'm obviously disappointed by the news that Drew Brees will not be starting for the Saints Sunday, the line here now accounts for that and as bad as things may look, I think they stay inside the number in this critical division matchup. Carolina has hardly been the league's most dominant 2-0 team as Jacksonville and Houston are the two teams they've beaten. Getting to face Luke McCown this week likely has the Panthers defense salivating, but remember they are w/o their best player as well, LB Luke Keuchly. The natural reaction of bettors/linesmakers is to overreact to a significant injury and that's what they've done here with Brees being out. Take the points. Another reason people are selling on the Saints right now is that they lost at home last week (as 10.5-pt favorites) to Tampa Bay. I was a little surprised by the straight up result, but remember that I had the Bucs plus the points. There's a ton of value in taking them now as they're a desperate 0-2 team w/o its starting QB. While all of these games came w/ Brees, the Saints are 3-1 SU/ATS when coming off B2B SU losses the last two seasons. It will be interesting to not see him under center (1st time in 10 years in NO), but expect a more run-oriented approach from Sean Payton. The argument could be made that Brees' shoulder was holding the offense back last week. McCown, while not even close to the same caliber of QB that Brees is, can at least make the claim of being healthy. Carolina is not w/o its own key injuries. I already mentioned Keuchly. Before the season, they lost their top WR Kelvin Bejamin to an ACL. In two games, the offense has averaged just 22 points per game. While 2-0 ATS as favorites, I don't think that the Panthers are built to cover spreads of this magnitude. In Week 1, they gained just 263 total yards against the Jaguars. Remember that last year's team also started 2-0 and then went 1-8-1 its next ten games. QB Cam Newton has to carry the offensive load too often. He actually led the team in rushing last week. McCown may not be ideal, but he looked decent enough in the preseason (24 of 35 for 323 yds w/ 3-0 TD-INT ratio) and that was with mostly the first string offense, and should have RB CJ Spiller back in the lineup. I see the Saints covering this game. 10* New Orleans |
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09-24-15 | Washington Redskins v. NY Giants -4 | Top | 21-32 | Win | 100 | 54 h 35 m | Show |
8* NY Giants (8:25 ET): As you may have read elsewhere, the Giants are the first team in league history to open the season 0-2 SU while holding double digit leads in the fourth quarter of both games. We all saw the debacle that unfolded in Week 1 at Dallas (still ended up being a wire-to-wire cover for me as my 10* Sunday Night Game of the Month!). Then, last week, saw them up 20-10 on Atlanta heading into the fourth quarter, only to allow a pair of touchdowns, the last one coming w/ only 1:14 remaining. Still though, they had a chance to win the game and were it not for the game's lone turnover, they could have actually put the Falcons away before what ended up being the GW drive. Lay the points here. I realize that a lot of people are writing the Giants off right now, but really, they could easily be 2-0 instead of 0-2. Losses in close games killed this team last year (0-4 SU in games decided by 8 pts or less), so their misfortune really is "due" to turnaround. While there are injuries on both sides of the ball to deal with on a short week, at least they draw an opponent (Washington) that they've swept three years in a row (6-0 SU) including a 4-0 ATS mark the past two seasons. Both of LY's victories came by double digits, one of them on a Thursday night and that was a 45-14 win in D.C.! Home teams typically do have a big advantage in these Thursday night games and sure enough, the Redskins are a woeful 2-14 SU/5-11 ATS on the road the past two seasons. They're also 4-23 SU as an underdog, including 0-8 on the road in the +3.5 to +7 range. Washington lost its first game to Miami, 17-10, w/ the difference being a punt return for TD by the Dolphins. But they were able to bounce back last week w/ a 24-10 win over the Rams. Still though, I like the idea of betting against Kirk Cousins off a win as I'm not sold on his abilities to be a consistent NFL starter. In last year's Thursday night matchup vs. the Giants, Cousins was downright awful as he turned the ball over five times. (Eli Manning, meanwhile, threw for 5 TDs). Last week was just his 2nd start w/o a turnover. The run game was the real story for the 'Skins against the Rams, but the Giants' defense is actually allowing the third fewest yards on the ground. 8* NY Giants |
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09-20-15 | Miami Dolphins v. Jacksonville Jaguars +7 | Top | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 99 h 27 m | Show |
8* Jacksonville (4:05 ET): This will be the first, but probably not the last, time I ask you to "hold your nose" and take the Jaguars plus the points this season. Granted, the returns have been pretty dreadful the last two seasons (not necessarily me playing them, but rather in general). But here we have a good value on the Jags, who are at home, facing a Dolphins team that the public is backing significantly for a second week in a row despite a somewhat undeserved cover in Week 1. It took a special teams (punt return) touchdown for Miami to beat Washington last week, 17-10 as four-point favorites, and that kind of play simply cannot be counted on week to week. With the line being bet up, I say take the points. There was not a ton of offense in either teams' game last week. Jacksonville gained just 265 total yards, but actually finished with the slightest of edges against Carolina, who gained 263. Miami had even fewer total yards than Jacksonville (256) and was outgained rather significantly by Washington (allowed 349). In both cases, the game swung on a non-offensive TD. I already mentioned the punt return that won the game for the Dolphins, but unfortunately for the Jaguars in their game, it was a Blake Bortles' pick-six that sunk their fortunes. One thing that should be pointed out is that prior to last week, Miami had been a road favorite of more than a field goal just two times in the last two seasons. So there is some substantial value in playing against the line move here. There's really not a ton more to say here. Bortles just has to be better for the Jags to stay in this game. These teams met last year and two Bortles' pick-sixes were the difference in a 27-13 Miami win. Jacksonville was coming off its first win of the season in that game and at one point actually had a 199-4 edge in total yards! You read that correctly. Perhaps an unusually late kickoff at home could help Bortles? There were more mistakes last week by Jacksonville, including a fumble in the red zone (not by Bortles), several drops and going 3 for 12 on third down. The good news is those types of things can be corrected. Look for the Jags to sneak within the number in this one. 8* Jacksonville |
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09-20-15 | Tennessee Titans v. Cleveland Browns | Top | 14-28 | Loss | -125 | 96 h 23 m | Show |
10* Tennessee (1:00 ET): While I'm a bit leery that I'm overreacting to the Titans' shocking Week 1 performance here, this play is more about the Browns and how awful they are. I'm not just talking about the ugly new uniforms either. My top 'Under' bet coming into the year was Cleveland Under 6.5 wins and I truly believe that this has the chance to be the worst outfit in football, in more ways that one. The "Josh McCown era," a bad idea to begin with, didn't even last a quarter as he got injured, leaving the woefully unprepared Johnny Manziel to come on in relief. To the shock of no one, Johnny Football turned the ball over three times in an eventual 31-10 loss to the Jets. Cleveland has won only one season opener since returning to the league in '99. Now, not getting points anymore w/ Tennessee may be a bit troublesome on the value side of things, but the bottom line is that I didn't expect to need them anyway. Besides, the Browns are a pretty woeful 4-9 SU/4-8-1 ATS the last three years in games where the line is a field goal or less, anyway. The reviews are all positive on Titans' QB Marcus Mariota after Week 1 as he clearly outplayed rookie counterpart Jameis Winston in a 42-14 road win over the Bucs. Having lost 14 of their final 15 games a year ago, some positive things are due to start going Tennessee's way. Mariota completed 13 of 16 passes, four of them going for touchdowns, last week. This week, I expect RB Bishop Sankey to have a big day against a porous Cleveland run defense that gave up 154 yards to the Jets in Week 1. Manziel, himself a former 1st round pick, has been nothing short of disastrous in his limited regular season appearances. Incredibly, he failed to complete 8 of 11 passes within five yards of the line of scrimmage last week. It was not a good sign that he was the team's leading rusher either (just 35 yards). In two starts last year, he completed only 50 percent of his 26 pass attempts. The Browns are as bereft of playmakers as any team in this league and the coaching staff, for whatever reason, seems unwilling to "open the playbook" for Manziel. Perhaps, it's because they know he's terrible. This is also a revenge spot for the Titans, who shockingly blew a 28-3 lead at home to the Browns last year (lost 29-28). 10* Tennessee |
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09-20-15 | Arizona Cardinals v. Chicago Bears +2.5 | Top | 48-23 | Loss | -110 | 96 h 23 m | Show |
8* Chicago (1:00 ET): New Bears HC John Fox lost his home debut last week, but there is no shame in that as the opponent was Green Bay and his team showed a lot of fight, particularly in jumping out to a 13-10 halftime lead (Forte = 105 yds rushing). Now I did have Chicago plus the points in that one and while they failed to cover, they missed the spread by only one point and that was facing Aaron Rodgers. It's a pretty significant drop in class for their next home game to Arizona, who has the added disadvantage of an early start time. While the Bears actually had the edge in total yardage in defeat (402-322) in Week 1, the Cardinals only had a slight edge (427-408) in their 31-19 victory over the Saints. Take the points here. Arizona benefited from New Orleans failing to score in three of four red zone opportunities a week ago. I don't think I'm alone in thinking this team will regress from LY's 11-5 finish. Cardinals' fans will argue that QB Carson Palmer being back makes them a stronger team, but as we saw in Week 1, the defense may end up really missing Todd Bowles. Plus, RB Andre Ellington is out for Week 2. It was a closer game than the final score indicated vs. the Saints as a late TD made it a two-score game. I really have to wonder how much longer this Cardinals' "magic" can continue as since the start of the 2013 season, they are a ridiculous 22-11 at the betting window, including 11-3 ATS in games where the line is a field goal or less. Fox is likely to improve the Bears this year as they can't really be any worse than they were a year ago, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. I though that unit did as good as job as could have been reasonably expected LW vs. Green Bay, holding that offense under 325 total yards. I know that WR Alshon Jeffrey did not practice Friday and that would be a big blow to the offense. But I like the idea of feeding Forte better anyway as that will limit the number of times QB Jay Cutler can make a mistake. The Bears have been a big disappointment at home for two years now (4-12-1 ATS) and in many ways, they're the opposite of Arizona as in "due" for better luck. 8* Chicago |
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09-20-15 | San Francisco 49ers v. Pittsburgh Steelers -5 | Top | 18-43 | Win | 100 | 96 h 23 m | Show |
10* Pittsburgh (1:00 ET): Honestly, I cannot believe that this line is still under a touchdown, given the Steelers need to bounce back as well how bad we all thought San Francisco would be prior to the start of the season. Sure, I had San Francisco last week. But that was at home, in a unique time slot, against an opponent that came in clearly overvalued by much of the public. We were also able to take advantage of a giant line swing in the Niners' favor in Week 1. Here, I think we have a clear overreaction to a nationally televised win that was a surprise to most. We also have an early start time (10 AM local) for the West Coast visitors. Though they needed a late score just to 'push' vs. NE in the season opener, Pittsburgh had no problem moving the ball in that game. I have them winning big here. Lay the points. Versus the Patriots last Thursday, the Steelers finished w/ a pretty big edge in total yardage (464-361) and that wasn't all a byproduct of garbage time either. Their first six drives all consisted of six plays or longer, yet the end result was only 14 points. There were four drives of seven plays of longer resulting in just a FG attempt and two were missed. The absence of Le'veon Bell was not felt as his replacement, DeAngelo Williams, ran for 127 yards on nine carries. WR Antonio Brown has nine catches for 133 yards. I don't anticipate the Steelers' offense having any issue moving the ball in this game either; remember that they were one of the best offenses in football a year ago. It's a short week for San Francisco, made worse by this early start time. Last year, the team ventured into the Eastern Time Zone only once and it was a game (against the Giants) where they were fortunate to finish +4 in turnovers in a 16-10. The 49ers defense stonewalled the Vikings into just 248 total yds, but this is a much more dynamic offense that they'll be facing here and San Francisco is not a team that's built to come from behind. Keep in mind that QB Colin Kaepernick has not thrown a fourth quarter TD pass in 21 games! The team will also be w/o Reggie Bush. Not only is this a short week for the Niners, but it's a long one w/ extra prep time for the home team, which is a huge advantage. HC Mike Tomlin has gone 8-1 SU in home openers. 10* Pittsburgh |
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09-20-15 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +11 v. New Orleans Saints | Top | 26-19 | Win | 100 | 96 h 22 m | Show |
8* Tampa Bay (1:00 ET): Well, week one of the Jameis Winston era hardly went "according to script" as the Bucs #1 overall draft choice threw a pick six on his first pass attempt and the team trailed 21-0 almost right out of the gate, at home, to a team that also finished 2-14 last season (Titans). Therefore, it would be easy to write Tampa Bay off here as big dogs going into New Orleans, but this is a division game and points can often be at a premium. Last season, the Bucs covered the spread in both losses to the Saints, falling by only three at home and six here on the road (in overtime). New Orleans' once invincible home field aura mysteriously went away in 2014 as they lost their last five games here at the Superdome. Take the points. If you're Tampa Bay, you simply have to "throw out" the Week 1 result and treat this game almost as if it was the season opener. Remember, there are signs pointing up for this team. Winston is an upgrade over what they had at QB last season and a league-worst 1-8 SU record in close games in 2014 (those decided by 7 pts or less) almost certainly is due to progress to the mean. Also remember that last year, the team was off a 42-point loss to Atlanta and came back the following week to stun Pittsburgh on the road. It will certainly help Winston if WR Mike Evans is on the field Sunday. Unlike last week, Evans has been practicing this week. The Bucs' full compliment of receivers is not a bad group. Also, not falling into a huge early hole would also allow RB Doug Martin to get going, something that didn't happen for obvious reasons vs. Tennessee. The Saints didn't show me much in Week 1, losing at Arizona by a score of 31-19 as 2.5-pt dogs. Sure, they moved the ball, but that really didn't translate into points as they were just 1 for 4 in the red zone, which to me immediately triggered just how much the offense is going to miss TE Jimmy Graham. Over the last two seasons, New Orleans has gone just 4-8 ATS in division games. This is a team in transition, one that had to make several difficult personnel choices in the offseason due to the salary cap and they are no longer what they once were. 8* Tampa Bay. |
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09-17-15 | Denver Broncos v. Kansas City Chiefs -3 | Top | 31-24 | Loss | -113 | 32 h 49 m | Show |
10* Kansas City (8:30 ET): When the advance line was posted for this AFC West matchup, it was Denver coming in as a slight (-1.5 point) road favorite. But due to growing concerns over Peyton Manning and this Broncos' offense, not to mention the Chiefs' impressive Week 1 win, there's been a fairly dramatic shift and the home team is now getting credit for the game taking place at their stadium. That makes sense as ver since the NFL instituted these Thursday night matchups, we've seen the road teams struggle to win. I think that will be the case again here as there is no denying KC is off the more impressive win last week, as they led big early on the road, while Denver needed two key interceptions to preserve a narrow 19-14 win at home. Lay the points. Watching all the games in the 1:00 ET window on Sunday, the Chiefs were the first team I marked as a winner. They led 27-6 in the first half before a late Houston "comeback" made the game appear closer than it actually was. Sure, the Texans finished w/ a 396-330 edge in total yards, but that was a byproduct of a lot of meaningless yardage in the second half. Kansas City's primary concern coming into the season was the passing game, but QB Alex Smith threw for 243 yards and three touchdowns. Newly acquired WR Jeremy Maclin had 52 of those yards. The defense did its job as well, which should come as no surprise because in 2014, they held opponents to 20 pts or less 11 times. Yes, the Broncos marked two of those exceptions, but as noted earlier, this is not the same Denver offense we've been accustomed to seeing the L3 years. KC has not beaten Denver (0-6 SU) in the three years since Peyton Manning has been there. But there are now clear signs that the Broncos are trending downward, namely the fact they did not score a single offensive TD last week. This after a somewhat dramatic dropoff in offensive production during the second half of last season. Incredibly, they gained only 219 total yds LW vs. the Ravens w/ Manning failing to throw for 200 yds for the third time in his last six regular seasons games and averaging just 4.4 yards per pass attempt. Even more concerning is that the Broncos' offensive line allowed four sacks, the most times Manning had gone down in nearly two years, and the Chiefs have one of the top pass rushes in the entire league. Thursday will be the Chiefs' night. 10* Kansas City |
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09-14-15 | Minnesota Vikings v. San Francisco 49ers +3 | Top | 3-20 | Win | 100 | 44 h 57 m | Show |
10* San Francisco (10:20 ET): Let's talk about this line move, shall we? Over the summer, the 49ers originally opened as 4.5-point chalk. They're now getting almost a field goal at most shops, which is quite the move. This has a lot to do w/ not much being expected this year from the Niners, a former NFC powerhouse under Jim Harbaugh. But Harbaugh is gone and reports aren't too high on new HC Jim Tomsula. But though I think this will easily be the Niners' worst year since before Harbaugh, I'm not really sold on the trendy Vikings, who are the "other" part of this equation. They have RB Adrian Peterson back and what is considered an up and coming roster have many thinking Minnesota will be in the playoffs. I do not share in that thought process. Take the points. The Vikings went 7-9 SU last year. They did not beat a single team that finished w/ a winning record. They had four wins by four points or less, two of them in OT, and those wins came at the expense of the Bucs, Redskins, Jets and Bears. This was the only team in the league last year to win multiple overtime games. For as much praise that's been heaped on QB Teddy Bridgewater, the offense was very conservative last year as his average yards per pass attempt were quite low. The Vikings averaged only 20.3 points per game in 2014. They were favored in only five games all of last season, just three times closing higher than -1. It's an expression I use often, but for good reason, as "the cart is being placed in front of the horse" as far as Minnesota is concerned. I don't see them improving this year the way others do. San Francisco lost a ton on the defensive side of the ball. But I don't think the Minnesota offensive is explosive enough to take advantage. Meanwhile, the Niners' offense might very well be improved thanks to the addition of WR Torrey Smith, who is the best in the league at drawing DPI, something that cannot be discounted. The Niners should also be able to run the ball in this game as Minnesota was just 25th against the run, allowing nearly 2,000 yards, last year. MNF history suggests SF is the play here as they are on a 9-1 ATS run while the Vikings are 0-6 ATS L6 MNF games. Don't forget that Minnesota will be w/o its starting center for the first eight weeks. 10* San Francisco |
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09-14-15 | Philadelphia Eagles v. Atlanta Falcons +3 | Top | 24-26 | Win | 100 | 41 h 48 m | Show |
8* Atlanta (7:10 ET): I think the wrong team is favored here. I have the Falcons as being much improved for 2015 while the Eagles, who undertook a massive roster turnover, figure to take a step back. This will also be new Atlanta HC Dan Quinn's home debut, so the team and fans should be quite fired up. Even during the failed Mike Smith era, the Falcons were a pretty dominant home team, going 39-15 SU w/ Matt Ryan as their quarterback. Therefore, the idea that they would be a dog in a matchup of two pretty even looking teams seems curious to me. While Philadelphia looked pretty impressive in the first three preseason games, remember that was preseason. Take the points here. In the first two weeks of the season, the Falcons are 15-5 ATS at home. All the talk coming into this matchup seems to be about Chip Kelly's offense, but Atlanta averaged 23.8 points per game themselves last year and was fifth in passing. QB Ryan should be able to take advantage of a highly questionable Eagles secondary. He has thrown for seven TD passes his last two games against Philly, who allowed more passing yards than all but one team (Atlanta!) last year. That includes 72 pass plays of 20+ yards, which was the most in the entire league. New Falcons offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan has succeeded w/ far less than he has here, so I expect this to be a strong offensive unit in 2015. The Eagles offense will have five new starters coming into the year and I'm still skeptical of Sam Bradford's ability to both stay healthy and produce. The new QB threw only 15 passes in the preseason. The offensive line, which was a major strength under Kelly the L2 years, has been rebuilt. TE Zach Ertz will miss this game. With Quinn at the helm, I feel that the Falcons defense stands to improve more than the Eagles. I loved the Vic Beasley draft pick as it will help a moribund pass rush. I just keep coming back to the home field advantage though; Atlanta was a home dog just three times last year and won two of those games outright. They'd actually covered five straight in that role before a Week 15 loss to the Steelers last year. 8* Atlanta |
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09-13-15 | NY Giants +6 v. Dallas Cowboys | Top | 26-27 | Win | 100 | 198 h 36 m | Show |
10* NY Giants (8:30 ET): In the interest of full disclosure, I'm pretty high on the Giants this year. So high in fact, that I have them winning the division. Thus, it stands to reason that I would certainly be in favor of taking the points here in a big NFC East matchup w/ the Cowboys. This sure seems like a lot of points for Dallas to be laying, no? For years, under HC Jason Garrett, America's team has struggled when favored, yet excelled as a dog. That continued in 2014 as they were 5-1 ATS taking points (four outright upsets), but just 6-6 ATS as chalk. That brings Garrett's five-year run as head coach to 15-27-1 ATS when favored and 21-8 ATS as an underdog. Giants' HC Tom Coughlin has similar success in the dog role & I see the potential for an upset here. Take the points. The Giants were a team victimized by close losses a year ago. They went 0-4 SU in games decided by seven points or less, which not coincidentally was also how many games they finished below .500. Only outscored by 20 pts last season, the G-Men should have finished closer to 8-8. Thus, they are prime candidates to have a breakthrough season in my book. QB Eli Manning, I think, is poised for a big year once he gets his full compliment of receivers back. Yes, it's looking like Victor Cruz will not play Sunday night, but Odell Beckham will and I'm willing to bet on him scoring a touchdown or two. This is also a big revenge spot for New York as they lost both games to Dallas last year. In fact, they've been swept each of the last two years. Dallas rode the league's best offensive line and an opportunistic defense to the division title in 2014, but they're unlikely to repeat for a number of reasons. The offensive line remains intact, but who will be running the ball now that DeMarco Murray has moved on to Philadelphia? The defense will almost certainly regress. Non-playoff division road dogs are on a 6-0 ATS run at +3.5 or less in Wk 1, if their rival made the playoffs the previous season. This is just too many points to be laying the first week of the season as the Giants will be better this year and the Cowboys will be worse (compared to 2014, at least). 10* NY Giants |
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09-13-15 | Cincinnati Bengals v. Oakland Raiders +3.5 | Top | 33-13 | Loss | -113 | 194 h 31 m | Show |
8* Oakland (4:25 ET): Don't sleep on the Raiders this season. Sure, the Silver and Black still have a ways to go to being considered true contenders, but I think they'll be a tough out in 2015. They've drafted well (on both sides of the ball) the last two years and the result will be improved play on the field. They start the year w/ three consecutive games against the AFC North, two at home (this one & vs. Baltimore), then the dreaded (for them) 1:00 ET start time at Cleveland. You have to figure they won't lose all three, and honestly I feel this Week 1 contest might just be their best shot at victory. I have Cincinnati taking a step back this season as they seem to have plateaued following four consecutive one-and-done playoff appearances. Take the points, but you may not actually need them! It is said that "good teams know how to win close games." I don't really agree w/ that. Often times, winning close games gives you a good record. For the 2014 Bengals, that was certainly the case as they finished 10-6-1 (including playoffs) despite being dead even in scoring differential. Sure enough, they went 3-0-1 in games decided by seven points or less. As I continuously harp on, that kind of success in close games is very difficult to sustain, year to year. Andy Dalton is still the quarterback in Cincinnati and the reality of the matter is there's no better option. The last four seasons, the rest of the team has been good enough to often carry "the Red Rifle," but is that the case any longer? By the way, the Bengals are 1-3 SU/ATS as road favorites of 3 pts or less the past two seasons. Oakland has some nice building blocks on this roster. While not fully sold on QB Derek Carr, he was a much better value in terms of where he was taken in the draft compared to Blake Bortles or Johnny Manziel and there is promise there. He now actually has a real NFL-quality receiver to throw to in rookie Amari Cooper. On the other side of the ball, I absolutely love Khalil Mack, who I expect to have a big jump in # of sacks this season. The Raiders were on the flip side of the Bengals last year as they lost a lot of close games (five by 7 pts or less) and I think some of those will turn into 'W's' this year. This is also new head coach Jack Del Rio's home debut, by the way. 8* Oakland |
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09-13-15 | Detroit Lions v. San Diego Chargers -2.5 | Top | 28-33 | Win | 100 | 193 h 12 m | Show |
8* San Diego (4:05 ET): Here's a game where I feel the favorite isn't receiving nearly enough respect. Granted, Detroit made the playoffs last year and San Diego did not, but that margin can often times be razor thin. Last year's Lions were a pretty fortunate bunch in my estimation as they were 6-2 SU in games decided by seven points or less & had the Pythagorean Win Expectation of basically a 9-win team. I have them regressing pretty severely in 2015 as the defense took a major hit in the offseason, losing not only Ndamukong Suh, but Nick Fairley as well. The Chargers can't possibly be as banged up as they were last year and recall that QB Philip Rivers, when healthy, led the team to a strong 5-1 start (6-0 ATS). Rivers enters the regular season healthy and just as importantly, so too does his offensive line, which went through an insane FIVE centers a year ago. The running back position was upgraded in the offseason w/ the drafting of Melvin Gordon and bringing in Danny Woodhead for a change of pace. There were four receivers w/ 750+ yards last year, though one of them (TE Antonio Gates) will miss the first four games due to suspension. Still, a healthy Rivers w/ plenty of weapons should lead to good things. Especially facing a Lions' D that can't possibly be as good as last year. The fact that Detrot was #1 against the run last year is basically rendered meaningless w/ Suh's departure. San Diego is 7-0 ATS in the month of September the L2 years. Remember that this is a West Coast game for the Lions, which isn't always easy. They don't often play here & in fact prior to a Christmas Eve meeting (in Detroit) back in 2011, they last beat the Chargers all the way back in 1978! They have NEVER won in San Diego. With all due respect to Haloti Ngata, he is not an adequate replacement for Suh along the defensive line. The offense, despite some of the big names, was shockingly average last year. The team was able to win five times when scoring 20 pts or less, which doesn't happen very often in today's NFL. They won't be able to get away w/ that here and I'll lay the points as the Chargers open the season w/ a big win. 8* San Diego |
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09-13-15 | Cleveland Browns v. NY Jets -3 | Top | 10-31 | Win | 100 | 558 h 31 m | Show |
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09-13-15 | Green Bay Packers v. Chicago Bears +7 | Top | 31-23 | Loss | -125 | 190 h 7 m | Show |
8* Chicago (1:00 ET): Here's one that few will see coming. Predictably, the Packers are receiving the vast majority of public support for this Week 1 matchup, but a spread this high for the first game? Remember that Green Bay is already w/o its top wide receiver Jordy Nelson (out for year) and Randall Cobb is less than 100 percent as well. The Bears have a new head coach (John Fox) and following the disastrous two-year tenure of Marc Trestman, he's not about to get blown out in his very first home game. I'm sure he's well aware of the fact that Green Bay has owned this rivalry (the NFL's oldest), including an 8-1 SU/ATS mark the past nine meetings. Unlike most, I do give Chicago a chance of pulling the upset here. Take the points. With a full season of QB Aaron Rodgers under center, Green Bay predictably bounced back strong last year, going 12-4 and making it all the way to the NFC Championship Game, where they would suffer a crushing loss to Seattle. They enter 2015 probably as the co-favorites w/ the Seahawks to make the Super Bowl out of the NFC. While that's deserved, I think they will lose more games than is expected in the regular season. Last year, the team enjoyed a lot of good fortune, namely a 6-1 SU record (includes playoffs) in games decided by seven points or less & they were a league best +14 in the turnover department. It will be difficult to duplicate either mark here in '15. We've already seen them bit by the injury bug during the preseason. Might more "bad luck" be headed their way? The Bears were huge disappointments last season, finishing 5-11 SU, including 2-6 at Soldier Field. Fox has a history of turning defenses around his first year on the job (see Carolina, Denver) & LY's Bears were really bad on that side of the ball, so improvement is to be expected. The same can be said on offense where I expect new coordinator Adam Gase to get more out of QB Jay Cutler than Trestman did. If losing five straight times to the Packers here at home wasn't motivation enough, Packers HC McCarthy threw more "wood on the fire" when he basically guaranteed a blowout here. Sorry coach, your team still has a losing (SU) road record the L2 years and this is simply too many points to be laying in Week 1. 8* Chicago |
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02-01-15 | Seattle Seahawks v. New England Patriots | Top | 24-28 | Loss | -100 | 251 h 21 m | Show |
10* Seattle (6:35 ET): For the second year in a row, I'm backing the Seahawks in the Super Bowl. They were my pick to win this game before the year started & I'm sticking with it. While I don't anticipate a result approaching the 43-8 demolition of the Broncos we saw last year at this time, there are some similar themes I've found when handicapping the two contests. The most notable is that the general public has again overreacted to the results of the Conference Championship Games. You'll recall that last year many questioned just "how good" Seattle was after they barely escaped San Francisco just hours after Denver had soundly beaten New England. Well, we found out the answer to that question, didn't we? The advanced line for this particular matchup had the Seahawks favored by three, but because they needed a miraculous comeback to defeat Green Bay (who is much better than the Indianapolis team the Patriots dominated in the AFC Title Game) in the NFC Championship, the line quickly swung in the other direction. The end result is that for a second year in a row Seattle, the better team, is now the underdog. When watching the NFC Championship, I remarked to a friend that I had never seen Seattle play so poorly in the Russell Wilson era as they did for the first three quarters of that game. Then we saw what this team is capable of doing. Yes, it required a great deal of good fortune to rally back and defeat Green Bay. But what are the odds of the Seahawks playing so badly again? Wilson likely had his worst day as a pro, throwing four INT's, which put at risk one of the great streaks in sports today. Seattle has had the lead in every game they've been in the last three seasons, which coincides w/ Wilson's arrival to the team. They are 37-18 ATS during this time. Before failing to cover against Green Bay (also, remember that I was on the Packers), Seattle was on a 7-0 SU/ATS run. They are 10-1 ATS as underdogs w/ Wilson at QB, winning seven of those straight up. Obviously, the likelihood that if they cover they also win here is substantial. As for the Patriots, they have had to deal w/ a multitude of distractions during the two-week buildup. The most obvious one is the stupidly-named "Deflate-gate." I don't put a ton of stock into how much effect the allegedly tampered footballs had on this franchise's winning ways, but it certainly could be a distraction here. I don't care what the football was like two weeks ago against Indianapolis, the point people are missing is that the Colts are a flawed team beyond Andrew Luck that simply does not match up well against New England. Seattle does. Tom Brady and the offense got away w/ not running the ball at all vs. Baltimore (a game they trailed 14-0 out of the gate) while against the Colts they were able to employ a more balanced attack simply due to the nature of the blowout. This game will be a different story. In case you hadn't heard, the Seahawks' defense led the league in points allowed, yards allowed and against the pass. Brady was not accurate w/ the deep ball this year (just 28.3 percent during the regular season on throws of 20+ yards) and that will mean trouble here. Also of note is that this game pits a team from the Pacific Time Zone against one from the Eastern Time Zone. While the twp-week break alleviates that disadvantage some for the Patriots, studies show that teams from Western U.S. tend to dominate those from the Eastern U.S. at night and don't forget this game is being played in Arizona where the Seahawks play every year. New England's rep as a team that "shows up" in big time games is largely based on results from a decade ago while ever since they've been decidedly mediocre in the playoffs, including 0-2 in Super Bowls. 10* Seattle |
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01-18-15 | Green Bay Packers +8.5 v. Seattle Seahawks | Top | 22-28 | Win | 100 | 46 h 22 m | Show |
10* Green Bay (3:05 ET): Seattle is rolling, plus they beat the Packers 36-16 here at home back in Week 1. So, I understand why the line is significantly higher for Sunday's rematch in the NFC Championship Game. But crossing the key number of 7 is an overadjustment as far as I'm concerned, similar to what we saw in both New England-Baltimore & in Green Bay's own game w/ Dallas last week. I get that the books would expose themselves somewhat by opening this number up below a touchdown and that the Packers have not been very good as an underdog to begin with (2-11 SU/2-10-1 ATS L3 years, including 0-3 SU/ATS this season). But because of all that we're now able to grab Aaron Rodgers plus the largest number of points he's ever gotten as a NFL starter. Take the points as the sequel promises to be a lot closer than the original. Obviously, a great deal of attention has been paid to Rogers' injured calf. But in leading his team back from a 21-13 deficit against Dallas last week, he looked just fine to me. In fact, he completed his final 10 pass attempts for 163 yards and two touchdowns. Much will be made about him leaving the pocket only four times in the entire game, but two of those throws went for TD's. Remember, that while Seattle's defense is very good, they have not faced a QB even close to the caliber of Rodgers during this seven-game run of theirs. In fact, one could make a case that Cam Newton last week was the best signal caller they've faced during that time and despite a relatively poor game, he still led the Panthers to 362 yards and 21 first downs, which is more than what the Seahawks' own offense gained for the game. For the record, here is a list of the QB's that Seattle has faced dating back to Week 7: Austin Davis, Cam Newton (twice), Derek Carr, Eli Manning, Alex Smith, Drew Stanton, Colin Kaepernick (twice), Mark Sanchez, Ryan Lindley and Shaun Hill. None of those aformentioned signal-callers are even close to being in Rodgers' league. But there is the fact that Rodgers was fully healthy for the Week 1 matchup w/ the Seahawks and his team still lost by 20 points. In that game, the presumed league MVP didn't throw at CB Richard Sherman even one time. I expect that to change this go-around. Something else that will be different is that Percy Harvin won't be on the field for the Seahawks. Harvin gained 160 total yards (rushing/receiving/returns) in that Wk 1 game and was actually a difference maker for once in his short tenure in Seattle. Green Bay's offensive line is now healthier than it was back in September when Bryan Bulaga went down w/ an injury. Perhaps most importantly, however, is that the Packers' run defense has improved dramatically over the second half of the season. They allowed an average of just 86 YPG over the final eight regular season games. Yes, Green Bay needed a call to go their way LW vs. Dallas, but the same held true for the Cowboys the week previous vs. the Lions and they came back and covered. This is just too many points. 10* Green Bay |
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01-11-15 | Dallas Cowboys v. Green Bay Packers -6 | Top | 21-26 | Loss | -100 | 114 h 16 m | Show |
8* Under Cowboys/Packers (1:05 ET): When you have an offense like Green Bay's that averages a whopping 39.7 points per game at home, you would expect that the Over would end up being a profitable bet here at Lambeau Field. And you would be correct in that line of thinking as the Over did go 7-1 in Packers' home games during the regular season. Somewhat interestingly, the one game that did go Under was vs. the Patriots. But this is the playoffs and w/ QB Aaron Rodgers at less than 100% (calf), I expect this game to be lower scoring than is expected. It's a high number for a playoff game, one that will be very cold to boot. I'm on the Under. The Over was also 7-1 in Cowboys' road games during the regular season w/ them winning every time. It's an 8-0 home team vs. an 8-0 road team in this one, and not only that but the Packers were the league's highest scoring home team and the Cowboys the highest scoring team on the road (34.4 PPG). So while all signs point towards the Over, we do have an injured QB on one side (Rodgers) and the other offense is going to lean heavily on the run. But while you might think the Cowboys have a big edge w/ their rushing offense, note that Green Bay actually was very stout against the run over the L8 games, allowing just 86.4 yards per game. The Cowboys ran for just 73 yds LW vs. the Lions and I won w/ the Under as they entered the 4Q w/ just 14 pts scored. Dallas has allowed 17 pts or less six times this year. I don't expect them to make it seven here, but I do believe they can hold the Packers below 30 points. That's even though Rodgers has done quite well in the past vs. Rod Marinelli coached defenses. This Packers' offense exceeded 30 pts just one time in the final six regular season games and w/ their QB not 100% it might be the team in green & gold that leans more heavily on the run game. Meanwhile, many of Dallas' big point totals late in the season were a byproduct of facing some really bad defenses. 8* Under Cowboys/Packers |
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01-10-15 | Baltimore Ravens v. New England Patriots -7 | Top | 31-35 | Loss | -100 | 94 h 47 m | Show |
10* New England (4:35 ET): The most common narrative on this game that I've been reading is that Baltimore covers, but doesn't win. While not a narrow window per se, implying that one team will almost certainly win, but do so by a margin of six points or less could certainly be construed as "overthinking things." I take a different approach to Patriots-Ravens in that I see a team that everyone expects to win, with a dominant homefield advantage, laying less than one touchdown. As a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points, New England is a solid 8-2 SU/ATS the L3 seasons. Much will be made of the fact the Ravens are 3-0 ATS in their last three playoff games vs. the Patriots, springing two upsets here Foxboro, but those were different teams. New England won 10 of its final 12 regular season games, resting starters in the finale, and is simply the better team here. Lay the points. I was on the Ravens last week (a 10* play!) as they won for the 7th time on the road in the playoffs w/ Joe Flacco as quarterback. The final score was 30-17 over the rival Steelers. Yet, they (Baltimore) were actually outgained 387-299 and finished w/ three fewer first downs. Winning the turnover battle (+2) as well as Pittsburgh committing 100 more yards in penalties were two of the deciding factors. Remember that the Steelers were also playing w/out RB Le'veon Bell. Knowing Pittsburgh wouldn't be able to run the ball, the Ravens outstanding pass rush was able to get to Ben Roethlisberger w/ relative ease. Getting to Tom Brady w/out blitzing will be a greater challenge as New England's offensive line play has improved dramatically since the start of the year and if the Ravens do blitz, well, Brady is one of the best in the game facing that type of pressue and will likely be able to exploit an injury-ravaged Baltimore secondary. New England's secondary is much better compared to Pittsburgh's, which will make it tougher on Flacco. Also, the Patriots' defense allows just 3.9 yards per carry. Remember that this Ravens' offense looked like a mess down the stretch, scoring 20 pts or less in each of the final three regular season games. It is a huge disadvantage having to play on the road the week after beating their main rival, a role Baltimore is just 2-4 SU in since 2011. Before they chose to rest starters in the last game vs. Buffalo, New England's only two non-covers at home this year came as DD chalk. Again, I think the history somewhat works against the Ravens here as Pats TE Rob Gronkowski didn't play in two of those three playoff games, plus NE has beaten Baltimore three out of four times in the regular season during that same span. With the line crossing the key number of seven, I'm comfortable backing the favorite. 10* New England |
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01-04-15 | Detroit Lions +8 v. Dallas Cowboys | Top | 20-24 | Win | 100 | 135 h 11 m | Show |
8* Detroit (4:40 ET): If you're reading this, then you already know I like the game to finish Under the total and going "hand in hand" w/ that is a play on the Lions plus the points. Thankfully, I was able to get them at the best available line (before Suh suspension was rescinded), but even w/ the number coming down slightly, I still feel strongly about this one as Dallas has been a real money-burner when favored by 6.5 or more points under HC Jason Garrett, going 4-11 against the spread. America's Team somewhat remarkably won all eight of its road games during the regular season, but was just 4-4 SU/3-5 ATS at home. Take the points. While I cited the Lions' offensive woes as a primary reason for liking the Under in this one, it does bear mentioning that WR Calvin Johnson destroyed this Cowboys' secondary last season, nearly breaking the single game record w/ 329 receiving yards. I do not anticipate anything close to a repeat, but Megatron can still be a difference maker. As I detailed in the writeup on the total, the Lions' top ranked rushing defense is uniquely qualified to keep DeMarco Murray and the Dallas running game in check. Murray's yards per carry went down from 4.7 to 4.23 over the final eight games, which may not sound like much, but it kind of is. Then you have the fact that in four previous all-time playoff games between the top rushing offense and defense, the latter has won straight up in three of them! 8* Detroit. |
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01-04-15 | Cincinnati Bengals +4 v. Indianapolis Colts | Top | 10-26 | Loss | -106 | 132 h 31 m | Show |
8* Cincinnati (1:00 ET): Despite taking an absolute whupping in a regular season meeting w/ the Colts (on this field), the Bengals have been the recipient of a good deal of "smart" money for this Wild Card matchup. The line continues to be bet down, and while I can say w/ a fair amount of certainty it isn't going below three points, I still recommend betting it now. The support for the road dog here is made all the more curious by the Bengals' infamously poor playoff record, which is of course 0-3 SU/ATS the last three seasons with Andy Dalton at quarterback. When it comes to that particular position, Indianapolis is undoubtedly much stronger w/ Andrew Luck, but most everywhere else I'd rate Cincy as stronger (including at WR if AJ Green plays). This is arguably the most important game of the Dalton/Marvin Lewis era, so I'm taking the points. The Bengals surprised me a bit by not folding down the stretch. They did lose the regular season finale, 27-17 at Pittsburgh, but impressively beat Denver on Monday Night Football six days prior, 37-28 as home dogs. Overall, they went 5-2 SU/4-3 ATS their last seven games. A big reason for their success was the emergence of RB Jeremy Hill, who should be in line for a big day here against a Colts' defense that permits 4.4 yards per carry here at home. Since Week 9, Hill has run for nearly 1,000 yards. Dalton obviously cannot turn the ball over here and has to play reasonably well. Thankfully, the Colts defense just isn't very good. I don't think this will be anything like that first meeting where Cincinnati was forced to punt on its first eight possessions, going three-and-out everytime. Even more concerning for Indianapolis is that their offense somewhat sputtered down the stretch as well. Luck did not go over 300 yards passing in any of the last four games and was held under 200 in the last three. Worth noting is that if not for playing in the weak AFC South, the Colts might not even be a playoff team. They went 6-0 SU vs. division opponents this year, but just 5-5 SU against everyone else, including 2-4 ATS the L6. Overall, they were 2-4 SU/ATS vs. playoff teams. Meanwhile, the Bengals were 6-2 SU/ATS as dogs this year! 8* Cincinnati. |
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01-03-15 | Baltimore Ravens +4 v. Pittsburgh Steelers | Top | 30-17 | Win | 100 | 115 h 46 m | Show |
10* Baltimore (8:15 ET): It's a divisional matchup, which means we have two regular season matchups to look at here and in each instance the home team won by a sizable margin. That would seem to favor the Steelers, who are a predictable three-point favorite here, but I'm saying "not so fast." First off, Pittsburgh is going to be w/out RB Le'Veon Bell. As you might expect, this is quite unfortunate for the Black & Gold. Bell was a "bellcow" for the offense this season, setting a franchise record w/ over 2200 yards from scrimmage, and because they released LeGarrette Blount halfway through the year, the Steelers really don't have anything close to an adequate replacement. Ben Tate was signed in the wake of the Bell injury, but he's already been released by TWO non-playoff teams (Browns, Vikings) this year. Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown may be able to make some things work in the passing game, but overall I feel the Ravens are the better team and I'm taking the points (and thus somewhat expecting an outright win). Making Pittsburgh's task of establishing some semblance of a running game even harder is that Baltimore will get NT Haloti Ngata back from a four-game suspension. A Baltimore pass rush will also be key. Of the 15 players in the league who had 20+ QB knockdowns during the regular season, three are on the Ravens' roster. Without Bell, I just don't think that Pittsburgh is going to do a very good job of keeping Baltimore "honest." It's really difficult to understate the loss of Bell, who has accounted for nearly 40 percent of his team's offense since Week 11, most of any player in the league. Two less than ideal offensive performances at the end of the regular season have hurt the Ravens' reputation coming into this game. But the fact of the matter is that other than losses here in Pittsburgh and the one in Houston, this team has really not played a "bad" game all season. This makes them attractive as the dog, especially because Wild Card teams playing on the road against a divisional opponent are 14-9 ATS w/ 10 outright wins. Baltimore led its division in point differential (+107) and is also 6-1 SU all-time in the Wild Card Round. With the weather conditions expected to be poor, the Ravens' ability to run the ball may be the difference in what could be a higher scoring game than anticipated. Also, seven of 11 games these teams played between '09 and '13 were decided by three points. 10* Baltimore |
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01-03-15 | Arizona Cardinals +6 v. Carolina Panthers | Top | 16-27 | Loss | -115 | 111 h 6 m | Show |
10* Arizona (4:20 ET): By the numbers, this could be the worst NFL playoff game of all time. The Cardinals are an 11-5 team "in record only" as they ended up outscoring opponents during the regular season by just 11 total points and arrive here having lost four of their last six games. Additionally, they are down to a third-stringer at quarterback, Ryan Lindley, who is perhaps the weakest starter at the position for a postseason team in recent memory. With Lindley at the helm, things have looked so dire that the team now finds itself as a significant underdog to the 7-8-1 Carolina Panthers, winners of the worst division in the sport, the NFC South. Of course, this line has a lot to do w/ HOW Carolina finished, that being on a four-game win streak. But I think it's an overreaction as even factoring in Lindley, I have the game closer to a pick 'em. Take the points. Look at who Carolina beat down the stretch. It was every division opponent plus Cleveland. They were favored twice and covered neither time, beating the Bucs and Browns here at home by a TOTAL of six points. As little as you may think of Arizona currently, they're certainly better than those two Panthers' opponents. It's easy to have a recency bias when it comes to these two teams, but let's not forget that at one point Carolina went 1-8-1 over a 10-game stretch. Their lone win over a playoff team this year came all the way back in Week 2 against Detroit. Some will cite the past success of playoff teams that went 8-8 SU or worse in the regular season, specifically the 7-9 Seahawks team that upset the Saints a few years back. But remember that Seattle team was a large underdog playing at home. They didn't have the added burden of having to win by some kind of margin like the Panthers do here. Of course, Arizona will have to be better that it has been recently, Lindley in particular. The third string QB at least looked somewhat competent in a close 20-17 loss LW at San Francisco. Not to excuse the bulk of Lindley's play, because admittedly it hasn't been great, but he has had to face some of the league's better defenses since being thrust into the lineup. Most notably, he had to go up against Seattle twice. Now Carolina's defense has improved dramatically down the stretch. But Arizona's defense is pretty good too and I think will be able to generate a requisite amount of pressure on Cam Newton. The blocking of the Panthers' offensive line hasn't exactly been great this season. When it comes to coaching, I'll gladly take Bruce Arians over Ron Rivera every time. The Cardinals went 7-4 SU/8-3 ATS during the regular season and are capable of pulling another upset here. 10* Arizona |
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12-28-14 | Cincinnati Bengals v. Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 102 | 53 h 1 m | Show |
8* Pittsburgh (8:25 ET): This game is for the AFC North. Pittsburgh beat Cincinnati earlier in the year, on the road, by a score of 42-21. That final is a bit misleading in the sense that the Steelers outscored the Bengals 25-0 in the fourth quarter, but I was on the Black and Gold then and I'll take them again now. While perhaps I'm grasping onto an "old narrative," this will be the second primetime game in a row for Cincy. Prior to last week's somewhat shocking 37-28 win over Denver (at home), this was a team that you could count on to fold up in the biggest games. What are their chances of winning two in a row under the bright lights? Previously QB Andy Dalton was just 2-6 SU in primetime games. I think that the Bengals are somewhat fortunate to even be 10-4-1 as their YTD point differential is only +31. Lay the points. Statistically, Pittsburgh has one of the best offenses in the league. They average 415.3 YPG and 27.3 PPG. With this game still to be played, they are already the first offense to have a 4,500 yd passer (Roethlisberger), 1,500 yd receiver (Antonio Brown) and 1,300 yard rusher (Le'Veon Bell) in the same season in NFL HISTORY. While it's true that the defense was fortunate to hold Kansas City to only 12 points last week, the Steelers' offense scored 20 points on its seven drives and probably should have ended up w/ more. They had four drives of at least 10 plays & 70 yards, but two ended w/ chip shot field goals. In the first game w/ Cincinnati, Big Ben and company torched this Bengals defense to the tune of 543 total yards. After punting on their first three drives, they would score points on seven of the next nine. Playing B2B primetime games is very difficult, especially off a SU dog win in the first one and being a dog again the following week. Keep in mind that Cincinnati was also at home last week and is now playing on the road. Running back Jeremy Hill was huge for the team vs. Denver, but the Steelers' defense is allowing just 86.3 YPG rushing the L8 games w/ only one back having a 100+ yard day against them during that time. HC Marvin Lewis is just 7-17 SU/ATS in his career vs. the Steelers, who are 6-1 SU/ATS in Week 17 under HC Mike Tomlin. I just think it will be too tough for Cincinnati to play up two weeks in a row. 8* Pittsburgh |
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12-28-14 | Carolina Panthers v. Atlanta Falcons -3 | Top | 34-3 | Loss | -115 | 49 h 56 m | Show |
10* Atlanta (4:25 ET): The topsy-turvy history of the NFC South (established 2002) indicates Carolina will not win this game as there has yet to be a repeat division champ. The Panthers, who were 12-4 a year ago, have fallen way off in 2014 w/ a 6-8-1 record yet somehow still are in a position to repeat thanks to the historically bad performance of all four teams in the division this year. I could make an argument that if they were somehow to win here, they very well could be the WORST division winner ever as they've been outscored by 66 points (avg of 4.5 per game) this season. Back to back close wins (at home) over Tampa Bay and Cleveland can hardly be classified as impressive, so the likelihood of them going into the Georgia Dome this week and coming away victorious is very small. I think the Falcons should be favored by closer to a touchdown in this one. Lay the points. Every year, it seems as if we have a team that finished the previous season in last place in its division make the jump to first. With a win Sunday, the Falcons can be this year's team to pull off the feat. The key has been a 5-0 record in division games. They won last week in New Orleans, 30-14 as six-point dogs, as the defense turned in its best performance of the season by holding the Saints to just one touchdown after the opening drive when all they had to do was punch it in from the 1-yd line after a long kick return. Thus, keeping a Carolina offense that has been held to 21 pts or less in eight of its last nine games, in check should not be too much to ask. While Carolina's YTD point differential indicates that they are a bad team, Atlanta's (-6) at least indicates mediocrity. They've lost four out of division games by seven points or less; had they just split those the division would already be theirs. But the fact is that this is a NFC South game and those are the ones the Falcons have dominated in this year. They're averaging 33.8 PPG in division contests w/ QB Matt Ryan completing 73% of his passes to go along w/ a 9-0 TD-INT ratio. Ryan comes into this game having thrown for 300+ yards in four straight games and WR Julio Jones has been a monster down the stretch. Carolina's defense is giving up over 30 PPG on the road this year, so I look for the Falcons to roll. Remember that they were 2.5-point favorites IN Carolina earlier this year. 10* Atlanta |
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12-28-14 | Indianapolis Colts v. Tennessee Titans +7.5 | Top | 27-10 | Loss | -123 | 46 h 32 m | Show |
full analysis soon |
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12-28-14 | San Diego Chargers v. Kansas City Chiefs | Top | 7-19 | Win | 100 | 46 h 32 m | Show |
Note: this play still stands despite the Alex Smith injury! 10* Kansas City (1:00 ET): For a second straight year, San Diego will need to beat Kansas City in the final regular season game in order to make the playoffs. But unlike last season, when they pulled the feat off, this time they will have to do it in Arrowhead Stadium. Yet another difference from last year is that the Chiefs won the season's first meeting, 23-20, back in Week 7. At the time, that kicked off an impressive five-game win streak for KC, but losses in four of their last five have put their own hopes of returning to the postseason on life support. But just because a win here guarantees nothing, don't think for a second that the Chiefs won't be motivated to at least knock their division rivals out of the playoffs. I say Kansas City has been the better team all season and is a great value laying less than a field goal at home. Note that despite not playing Smith in last year's regular season finale, the Chiefs very nearly beat the Chargers on the road, and should have, if not for a missed FG at the end of regulation. I believe backup QB Chase Daniel to be capable enough to get the job done here. Because the Chargers' path to the playoffs is cleaner (a win here, and they're in), they have become popular w/ the public this week. I've often said that the only underdog I don't like is a publically-backed one and that's what we have here. I was on San Diego last week, as a slight dog, and was very fortunate to come away w/ a win as they rallied back to defeat the 49ers in overtime, 38-35. But it's hard to gloss over the fact that the defense surrendered a horrifying 355 yards rushing in the game, the most ever by a team that won a NFL game! Down 28-14, there was a huge momentum change as a San Francisco TD was called back and one play later the Chargers recovered a Colin Kaepernick fumble in the end zone. Remember that this is a team dealing w/ a ton of injuries, QB Philip Rivers' back among them, which has played a major role in them going 2-8 ATS their L10 games. Their last three wins have all been by three points or less, so they're somewhat lucky to be in a situation where they control their own playoff destiny. I thought that the Chiefs' 20-12 loss in Pittsburgh last week was a bit misleading. Granted, I was on Kansas City. But it was a game they punted only one time. Their other six drives all lasted at least seven plays and accounted for 44+ yards. So they were able to move the ball despite ending up w/ just 12 points. They were on the wrong side of a momentum swing when a long drive at the end of the first half resulted in them getting stuffed on fourth and short. They also fumbled deep in the Steelers' territory in the third quarter. It was no fluke when the Chiefs won in San Diego earlier in the year as they outgained them 365-251 and dominated time of possession. The fact that KC has outscored its opponents this year by 60 pts while San Diego is at just +12 indicate to me that this line should be OVER a field goal, not Under, making the home team a very solid play. 10* Kansas City. |
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12-22-14 | Denver Broncos -3.5 v. Cincinnati Bengals | Top | 28-37 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 57 m | Show |
10* Denver (8:25 ET): Normally, I do not like NFL road favorites. But here, I'm only having to lay a short number against an overrated Cincinnati team. The Bengals are 9-4-1, still leading the AFC North, but they have a mediocre point differential of just +22, which is just 10th best in the AFC. Then you have the fact this is a primetime game against a top team, two situations that have spelled doom for the Bengals during the Andy Dalton era and beyond. Including an 0-2 SU/ATS record this season (where they were blown out by New England and Cleveland by a combined 77-20), Cincy is a woeful 2-6 SU in primetime games w/ Dalton at the helm (3-13 SU L16 overall), losing by an average of 8.3 PPG. Add in the fact they're playing one of the best teams in the league, Denver, and are 0-8 SU all-time vs. Peyton Manning, I just can't see someone making a case for the Bengals here. Lay the points. Much has been made of Denver's lackluster numbers on offense in recent weeks as they've transitioned into a team that likes to run the ball more despite having Manning under center. Last week saw them score their fewest points (22) in a win all season. But running the ball might work to their advantage here as Cincinnati is allowing an average of 130.3 YPG on 4.3 yards per carry. The Broncos have averaged 164.8 YPG on the ground during their four-game win streak. Then, of course, you still have Manning, who I'm not worried about at all. He was sick (as in ill) against the Chargers and the team still won comfortably. Unlike Cincinnati, Denver has thrived in primetime contests, especially this season where they've gone 4-0 SU (3-0-1 ATS), averaging just over 34 PPG. That includes a cover as a road favorite a few weeks back at Kansas City. Ask yourself, who do you trust more in this situation? Cincinnati has done a great job getting its own run game going, but compared to Denver, they'll have more trouble establishing the ground game here. That's because the Broncos' defense is 2nd in the league against the run, allowing an average of just 71.6 yards per game. This, in turn, puts more pressure on Dalton, who has not had B2B games w/ a passer rating of 100+ all season. Last week's 30-0 win over Cleveland has overvalued the Bengals some here. Remember, they're facing Peyton Manning, not Johnny Manziel. With Manning at the helm, the Broncos are 14-3 SU/12-5 ATS when favored by more than field goal. 10* Denver |
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12-21-14 | New England Patriots v. NY Jets +11.5 | Top | 17-16 | Win | 100 | 41 h 20 m | Show |
8* NY Jets (1:00 ET): Something to keep in mind when handicapping not only this game, but as a matter of fact all three games in this package, is that home dogs of +7 or more in the month of December are a profitable 26-21-2 ATS and surprisingly have 13 straight up wins. Something else to keep in mind is that this will almost certainly be Rex Ryan's final home game as HC of the Jets. They will be highly motivated. A third thing to keep in mind is that this spread is just as high as when the Patriots hosted the Jets back in Week 7 (Thursday night game) and won by only a 27-25 final margin. Take the points again here. There is a history of close games in this AFC East rivalry. Four of the last five meetings have been decided by a field goal or less and not surprisingly the Jets have covered all four of those. The ATS win in the earlier meeting this season improved Ryan to 7-5 ATS all-time vs. the Patriots. With last week's win at Tennessee, the Jets are now 3-11 SU and have little chance at "earning" the #1 overall draft choice. Therefore, any disincentive NOT to win is lessened and you have to figure they players will play hard for their head coach in his final home game. It may have not worked out for Ryan here, but he was always popular with those who played for him. The first time these teams played, Jets QB Geno Smith actually didn't stink up the joint as he completed 20 of 34 passes for 226 yards. Typically, Smith does not play well away from home. But the team is 3-0 ATS (2-1 for some) since he reclaimed the starter's job, including last week's win at Tennessee. Now he's at home, and the team is getting plenty of points. The last two losses w/ Smith at the helm have been by a combined nine points and one went to OT. They've had a chance to win all three times. Remember that the Jets also still have a strong defense, one that allows only 87.5 YPG on the ground, 4th most in the league. Also, the Jets' offense can run the ball. They are second in the league in that category at 147.1 YPG and that's with the absence of a real passing attack. Emotions should be high for Ryan's final home game and I see the Jets covering the spread fairly easily in this one. 8* NY Jets. |
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12-21-14 | Detroit Lions v. Chicago Bears +9.5 | Top | 20-14 | Win | 100 | 41 h 20 m | Show |
8* Chicago (1:00 ET): For the record, this play was made before it was announced that Jay Cutler would be benched "in favor of" Jimmy Clausen. Obviously, I would have liked to get the now available higher number w/ the Bears, but the play still stands. Consider this: Can things really get any worse than they've been w/ Cutler at the helm? I don't think so. This is a lot of points to be laying in a division game, not to mention as the road team. No one is giving Chicago a shot here, so for me, that's the perfect time to get on board, especially w/ an inflated number. Consider that when this number opened, it was at -4.5. Now, it's been bet much higher thanks to the public. I don't see Detroit losing here, but if they did, they still have a chance at winning the NFC North next week. I see the plan here being "just to win" and get ready for next week's showdown in Green Bay. Take the points. This is the Bears' final home game of the year and likely the final home game under HC Marc Trestman. Now Soldier Field has not brought much prosperity to this team during Trestman's tenure. They're a woeful 3-10-2 ATS here the past two seasons and have been blown out in B2B weeks by Dallas and New Orleans. But, at SOME point, you have to expect pride to kick in. Trestman and Cutler clearly were never on the same page, but I expect at least a best "effort" from Clausen here. His coach is basically giving him a "vote of confidence" w/ the start and though Clausen was pretty terrible in Carolina, Trestman should be able to coax more out of him. Something else to keep in mind here is that the Bears are now catching more points at HOME than they were Thanksgiving Day in Detroit. Granted, they lost by 17 there, but still you don't see that often. In addition to having a lookahead to next week at Green Bay, I'm not really sure this Lions offense is one that's capable of blowing teams out. They've won w/ defense thus far, giving up the fewest PPG in the league, thus the Under is 10-4 in their games. Another big reason for that is their offense is averaging an absolutely woeful 14.2 PPG on the road! This is another potential playoff team that's been outscored on the road this year, going only 3-3 straight up and 2-4 against the spread. Including last week (when I played against them), the Lions now have FIVE wins of seven pts or less to their credit. Chicago actually led 14-3 early in Detroit and w/ the pointspread where it's at, I'm not going to rule out a backdoor cover. 8* Chicago. |
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12-21-14 | Green Bay Packers v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers +13 | Top | 20-3 | Loss | -125 | 41 h 19 m | Show |
8* Tampa Bay (1:00 ET): While this season is clearly a lost cause that could only be made up for by "earning" the #1 overall selection in next year's Draft, I actually don't think the future is as terrible as it might seem right now for the 2-10 Buccaneers. In fact, I would imagine this will be one of the most improved teams in the league next season, if not THE most improved. A closer look at their results reveals that a horrible 1-8 SU record in games decided by eight points or less will be the main culprit for this year's impending disastrous finish. That includes two overtime losses. They've only been blown out three times all season, two of those coming way back before the bye. This is the ONLY team in the league that hasn't won a home game this season and while that's unlikely to change after this week, I do like them to stay surprisingly competitive w/ the Packers, who are coming off their first loss in nearly two months. Take the points. This will mark the fourth consecutive time I've played against Green Bay on the road. So far, I'm a perfect 3-0 against the spread. It started way back in Week 8 at New Orleans. Then, they got hot and became overvalued. A few weeks later, they won at Minnesota by only three points (laying more than a touchdown) and then last week came the outright loss in Buffalo. QB Aaron Rodgers had probably his worst game of the season, and possibly as a pro. For the first time in his career, he threw multiple INT's w/out a TD pass. His 40.5 completion percentage marked a career low and his 28 incompletions were a career high. His receivers didn't help w/ seven drops. Now, Tampa Bay clearly does not have the same caliber of defense as Buffalo, but the fact remains that the Packers are simply not as good at home compared to on the road. Most teams aren't, but Green Bay's decline is significant as they average half the number of points they do at Lambeau and are actually being outscored for the season. Packers' backers will be quick to point to the team's 3-0 ATS record off a SU loss this season. But two of those games were against Chicago and the other vs. the Jets. One was off a bye. Yes, Tampa Bay isn't much better than those teams, but remember the Buccaneers' record in close games that I spoke of earlier? Well, prior to last week, Green Bay was a perfect 5-0 SU in such games. I envision another close game here that mirrors the two teams drastically different seasons. A second straight road game w/ a lookahead to next week's division title tilt w/ Detroit does the Pack no favors here. Not surprisingly, all the public money has come in on the favorite here, making the Bucs a solid value. 8* Tampa Bay. |
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12-21-14 | Kansas City Chiefs +3 v. Pittsburgh Steelers | Top | 12-20 | Loss | -105 | 41 h 31 m | Show |
10* Kansas City (1:00 ET): I have the Chiefs rated slightly higher in my own power ratings, so I think they are a good value taking points this week in Pittsburgh. This is a huge game in the AFC Playoff picture, but more so for Kansas City. The Chiefs already have six losses and a seventh would pretty much knock them out of contention. The Steelers come in off B2B road wins over Cincinnati and Atlanta, but both were somewhat misleading as they actually trailed the Bengals entering the fourth quarter and the Falcons' settled for too many field goals in a game they gained 400 total yards. While Pittsburgh boasts the top offense in football in terms of yards per game, they have struggled against some of the better defenses they've faced and KC happens to rank #2 in the league against the pass. Take the points. On offense, I expect the Chiefs be able to run the ball in this game. They rank 7th in that department for the season (126.3 YPG). Jamaal Charles' load has been lightened by the emergence of Knile Davis and that duo has gone for nearly 1,400 yards total. The receiving group has been much maligned this year (no TD catches), but going against some pretty weak Steelers' cornerbacks could lead to a breakout performance. This is a team that has lost only two games by more than a touchdown all season, one of those coming to Tennessee of all teams way back in the season opener. They've beaten both Seattle and New England (albeit at home), who are considered the favorites to be in the Super Bowl. On defense, the Chiefs have not allowed a 300-yard passer all season. Keep in mind they've faced Tom Brady and Peyton Manning a total of three times. This group allows only 18 points per game. Consider that at home, Pittsburgh is allowing over 28 PPG at home. The Chiefs have been outstanding as a dog so far this year, going 6-1 ATS and they've won four of those games outright, three of them getting a field goal or less. This game is basically their season while a loss probably wouldn't kill off the Steelers, assuming they can beat Cincinnati (at home) next week. In an even matchup, with the underdog being more desperate, taking the points is the way to go. 10* Kansas City. |
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12-21-14 | Cleveland Browns +4 v. Carolina Panthers | Top | 13-17 | Push | 0 | 41 h 31 m | Show |
10* Cleveland (1:00 ET): It's funny the way the NFL works sometimes. Cleveland is 7-7 SU (a record that I think most of their fans would have taken coming into this year), but it's currently a foul atmosphere around the team thanks to losses in four losses in their last five games. Last week saw a disastrous debut from Johnny Manziel at home against Cincinnati, which in effect ended any hope the Browns had of making the playoffs in the very deep AFC. Meanwhile, by all accounts, Carolina fans should be furious w/ the team's 5-8-1 record considering the Panthers won 12 games a year ago. But because they play in the odious NFC South, they are still alive for a division title thanks to B2B wins. Cam Newton is likely to return this week, but I just don't think this is a team worth getting excited for and it's dangerous to lay more than a field goal w/ them here. The better team is getting points. It would be difficult for Johnny Football to be any worse than he was last week. Under his direction, the Browns' offense gained just 107 total yards - for the game - and shutout. But it wasn't just Manziel that struggled. Cleveland was dominated at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the football. They fell into an early hole (Cincinnati scored on opening drive), which is probably the worst case scenario for a rookie making his 1st career start. Again, there is almost NO WAY the Browns can play any worse. One positive is that Carolina has just 31 sacks this season after leading the league w/ 60 last season. Something else to keep in mind is that the Browns have been involved in six games decided by a field goal or less this year, going 3-3 SU. I still have Carolina rated a few spots below Cleveland in my personal power rankings. The Panthers have a YTD point differential fof -70, which indicates they deserve to be mentioned among the worst teams in the league, not as a possible playoff contender. I feel confident in saying this team will NOT win the division. The return of Newton sounds great, but consider that two of their wins this season (both against Tampa Bay) came w/ backup Derek Anderson in at QB. Newton has not had a good year and I question putting him out on the field less than two weeks after being involved in a serious car wreck. If the team were not still mathematically alive for the division, I'd doubt he'd be in there. NFC South teams have been terrible out of the division this year and division games have produced the Panthers' last two wins. Don't be surprised to see the Browns earn that elusive 8th win. 10* Cleveland. |
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12-20-14 | San Diego Chargers +2.5 v. San Francisco 49ers | Top | 38-35 | Win | 100 | 92 h 46 m | Show |
8* San Diego (8:25 ET): This is a battle of disappointing teams, although the Chargers should certainly be more motivated simply based off the fact they can still make the playoffs while the 49ers cannot. Jim Harbaugh's highly successful (no matter what his critics may say) tenure in San Francisco is all over but the shouting as the team has lost three straight, scoring only 23 points total in the process. That makes them a bad candidated to be laying any points, even against a San Diego team dealing with multiple injuries at the skill positions. The Chargers just got done playing two very difficult home games (New England & Denver) and should be ready to take advantage of this drop in class w/ the opponent having nothing left to play for. Having covered only one of its previous nine games, I'd say the Chargers are "due." Without any motivation to speak of and a lame duck head coach, making San Francisco's task even taller here is the fact they're playing on a short week after taking on Seattle. "The Seahawk effect" is something I don't think that has been discussed enough as recent Seattle opponents have really struggled the week after taking on the defending World Champs. Last week saw Philly, coming off a loss to the Seahawks, lose outright at home to Dallas. The 49ers themselves lost outright at lowly Oakland in between their two games w/ their rival. All told, nine of the last ten teams to play Seattle have lost the following week. Also, San Francisco hasn't had a very strong homefield advantage this year at Levi's Stadium. Heading into their final two games, they're just 1-5 ATS in their new stadium and 3-3 straight up, losing both primetime games played here. When I played against them in the home opener (vs. Chicago), I discussed how home teams tended to struggle in new stadiums. Speaking of struggling, how about this 49ers' offense? They've been held to 17 points or fewer in five straight games as well as seven of their last eight. Making matters worse is that bellcow RB Frank Gore is dealing w/ a concussion suffered in the Seattle game. San Diego has won in hostile environments before (Baltimore three weeks ago), so this short trip shouldn't be a big problem, especially w/ the playoffs on the line. I give a major edge at QB to Philip Rivers over Colin Kaepernick right now and the 49ers are the more injured team w/ 15 players on IR. There's no reason the Chargers shouldn't win here. 8* San Diego. |
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12-20-14 | Philadelphia Eagles v. Washington Redskins +9 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 88 h 52 m | Show |
10* Washington (4:30 ET): I realize that we're running low on Redskins' rationale, but getting this many points at home, against a division rival no less, still means something in my book. Despite a poor 1-5 ATS mark their last six games and a lack of stablility at the quarterback position, it's not like Washington has played that poorly. OK, the St. Louis game was bad, but other than that they've been pretty competitive. Last week against the Giants, a bad call (from the "immortal" Jeff Triplette) went against them at the end of the first half, costing them what would have been a 10-point lead. They were "in the money" the entire game until Eli Manning's 3rd TD pass of the day to Odell Beckham Jr w/ just under five minutes to go. I realize this is almost a "must win" for Philadelphia, but it's a brutal spot to be laying this many points (short week!) after a tough home loss to the Cowboys cost them first place in the NFC East. Take the points. Washington did cover the season's first meeting, taking four points in a 37-34 loss at Philly. That was w/ Kirk Cousins at QB. Robert Griffin III, maligned as he may be, actually did not play poorly last week as he completed 18 of 27 passes for 236 yards. He also ran for 65 yards, a dynamic we haven't really seen from him since his rookie campaign. For what it's worth, the Eagles defense really struggled to contain Seattle's Russell Wilson two weeks ago, letting him run for 48 yards on 10 carries. Philadelphia also ranks 28th in the league against the pass. Speaking of QB's, Mark Sanchez appears to be a signal caller rapidly losing confidence as he's completed only 27 passes the L2 games and already has nine interceptions. In four of his seven starts, he's thrown multiple picks. He struggled against the blitz mightily last week. The Eagles have also gotten off to slow starts the last two games. They never got going against Seattle, getting outgained 440-139 at home in a 24-14 loss that wasn't that close. Then last week, again at home, they found themselves trailing Dallas 21-0 early in the second quarter. Don't forget that early in the year, they had to escape a number of slow starts against bad teams just to escape w/ SU win. On the road, they're only 3-3 SU/ATS this year. While an outright upset is unlikely, I look for the Redskins to keep this one close. 10* Washington. |
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12-15-14 | New Orleans Saints v. Chicago Bears +3 | Top | 31-15 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
10* Chicago (8:25 ET): In a game between two very disappointing 5-win teams, I'm siding w/ the homefield advantage & the Bears. Now Soldier Field hasn't been much of an advantage for the home team under HC Marc Trestman (who's likely coaching for his job at this point). In his two-year tenure here in Chicago, Trestman is a woeful 3-9-2 ATS in home games. That includes another poor showing last Thursday against the Cowboys in a 41-28 loss. But I can't see the Bears getting embarrassed again on national television. While they're out of contention and the Saints are still alive in the woeful NFC South, eventually pride HAS to kick in a little bit, no? As a result, I'm taking the points. Of course, just because New Orleans happens to still be in contention doesn't mean they're a good team. Last week, they lost for a fourth straight time at home, 41-10 to Carolina. Keep in mind that coming into this season the Saints had not dropped a game at the Mercedes Benz Superdome w/ HC Sean Payton on the sidelines since 2010 (he was suspended in '12). Now they are back outside where they, the offense especially, are never as effective. The Saints are just 9-15 SU/10-14 ATS in all road games the L3 years and that's only after surprisingly covering their last three. What happened to this team last week can't be sugarcoated. Carolina came into that game on a six-game losing streak and had scored all of 25 first half points in those games. They scored 24 against the Saints en route to rolling up nearly 500 total yards of offense. Both defenses are bad here, but statistically, New Orleans is a little worse. Only Atlanta gives up more yards per game & in the last four contests, they've allowed an average 472.3 YPG. They've allowed 27+ points in five straight games. Bears QB Jay Cutler is rightfully maligned, but he should be able to move the ball and put points on the board. It would also be a good idea to give the ball to RB Matt Forte as the Saints have been the worst team at defending the run since Wk 10 (183.8 YPG allowed!). Drew Brees, like Cutler, has been a bit of a turnover machine (14 YTD). I would not be surprised to see the Bears pull the upset here as the NFC South has just been BRUTAL so far in non-division games, going just 8-28 straight up. 10* Chicago |
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12-14-14 | San Francisco 49ers +10.5 v. Seattle Seahawks | Top | 7-17 | Win | 100 | 39 h 4 m | Show |
10* San Francisco (4:25 ET): As you've likely heard by now, this is the most points the 49ers have ever taken in the almost four seasons under HC Jim Harbaugh. It's a combination of discontent within the organization, what happened the last time they played Seattle (Thanksgiving Night) and finally what happened last week in Oakland. For the record, I was on the Raiders plus the points, but never could have imagined things would have turned out the way they did w/ the Silver and Black winning outright, 24-13 as nine-point pups. It wasn't like it was a flukish-type result either; San Francisco was outgained 330-248 and trailed most of the game. Sadly, that's more yards gained than what they had the previous week vs. Seattle. But what all of this has led to is an overreaction in the marketplace as SF was getting only a TD on the advanced line and the public has taken care of the rest. I don't see the proud Niners going down w/out a fight against their rivals. Take the points. Seattle has also looked very impressive the last three weeks, winning and covering every game. They've allowed just one touchdown during that span and as referenced earlier, held the Niners to just 164 total yards in a 19-3 Thanksgiving night beatdown. The line for that game was close to a pick, so you'd expect the Seahawks to be laying a TD or maybe a little more here. But not double digits. On the road, San Francisco is 13-4 ATS its L17 games while they are 17-3 ATS off a SU loss as a favorite. Under Harbaugh, they have NEVER lost three games in a row, going a perfect 4-0 ATS as well. I had them the last time they were in this situation, which is when they defied the odds and won outright in New Orleans (which was before the Saints started losing every home game). Earlier in the year, they won and covered at home vs. Philadelphia when off B2B losses. So this looks to be a classic overreaction, primarily by the public, based on what they've seen they last two games. It wasn't too long ago that the Seahawks were having their own issues and it's worth noting they haven't scored more than 24 points in any of their last four games. San Francisco still has a solid defense, one that ranks 4th against the pass and 7th against the run, so they won't let the game get out of hand. Incredibly, I see this as a bit of look ahead spot for Seattle, who will be playing for first place in the division next week at Arizona. As for the 49ers, their entire season is on the line here and I imagine they aren't going to go down quietly. With Seattle 4-0 ATS the L2 years in this NFC West rivalry, all the motivation is going to be w/ the underdog. 10* San Francisco. |
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12-14-14 | Minnesota Vikings +9 v. Detroit Lions | Top | 14-16 | Win | 100 | 39 h 3 m | Show |
10* Minnesota (4:25 ET): Don't sleep on the Vikings. They are 6-7 SU on the season and have covered six of their last seven games (for most), including LW's OT win against the Jets. I was actually able to cash the dog in that one, but got them at the best possible number. Regardless of the fact that they have largely gotten their wins at the expense of bad teams, Minnesota is a great play plus the points this week in Detroit as not only is this a heated division rivalry, but they have revenge from a 17-3 loss all the way back in Week 6. Rookie Teddy Bridgewater was sacked eight times in that game, but has steadily gotten better even if his O-line has not. This is pretty rarified air in terms of the line as the Vikings haven't been a touchdown underdog to the Lions except for two times in the last 36 years! They're 6-2-2 ATS as dogs vs. Detroit since '05! Doesn't it seem like there's been an abundance of teams that have gotten to play three straight home games this year? The Lions fall into this situation this week and are off B2B dominating wins over also-rans Chicago and Tampa Bay (by identical 34-17 scores). But history has been unkind to teams playing a third straight home game after wining the first two as they're only 37% ATS since 1990! This year, teams are actually 2-1 SU/ATS in that situation, but the two covers came either as a dog or in the pick 'em range. The one significant favorite, Cincinnati, lost outright 24-3 to Cleveland on a Thursday night. Also, before last week's win and cover against the 2-11 Bucs, the Lions had failed to cover 13 straight times following a game where they scored 30+ points. It should be noted that Minnesota's defense did a pretty good job against the Detroit offense in the first meeting. In addition to allowing just 17 points, they held the Lions to only 255 total yards. Matt Stafford's yards per pass attempt was a season-low 5.61. First year HC Mike Zimmer has done a tremendous job w/ this group (as was expected) as the Vikings are allowing the sixth fewest passing yards per game (220.8). On offense, I expect Bridgewater to play a lot better here than the first meeting as his QB rating is 119 the past two games and he's unlikely to be sacked or throw as many INT's as he did in what was only his second career start. 10* Minnesota. |
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12-14-14 | Pittsburgh Steelers v. Atlanta Falcons +2 | Top | 27-20 | Loss | -103 | 36 h 40 m | Show |
8* Atlanta (1:00 ET): Pittsburgh has been one of the hardest teams in the league to figure out this year. They're 8-5 SU and in playoff position, thanks to a big 42-21 win at Cincinnati (that I was on). But they've also suffered losses to the likes of Tampa Bay and the Jets. They're the one AFC North team that has failed to take advantage of the downtrodden NFC South this year, having also lost a game at home to New Orleans two weeks ago. So seeing them laying points this week at Atlanta jumped out to me as a go-against spot for the Steelers. With home games remaining against Kansas City and Cincinnati, I actually don't think this game means all that much to the Black & Gold, but it certainly does for the home team, who will be looking to at least stay tied for first place in the aforementioned NFC South before next week's big game at New Orleans. Take the points. I think you have to give the Falcons some credit for fighting back they way they did Monday night in Green Bay. It was a game few, if any, gave them a shot at winning, but in the end they did escape Lambeau w/ at least a cover, losing only 43-37 as 13.5-point dogs. The offense rolled up 465 yards, most of it coming through the air as Matt Ryan threw a season-best 4 TD passes. WR Julio Jones has been an absolute monster the L2 games w/ 21 catches and 448 yards and his presence would be huge here against a Steelers secondary that just gave up 224 yards to AJ Green last week. While Jones' status is currently up in the air (questionable), HC Mike Smith has said he expects him to play. Pittsburgh may have won four of its last six on the road, but laying points away from home has NOT treated them well in the past. In fact, they're just 3-11 ATS the L14 times in that role. In addition to losing outright at the Jets earlier this year, they failed to cover against Tennessee as well. On offense, their scoring drops down to 21.7 points per game on the road, a far cry from the 35 PPG they average at Heinz Field. Meanwhile, Atlanta has been one of the best home teams in the league under Smith, going 39-15 SU, which is the fifth best winning percentage in the league during that time (since '08). While only 3-3 SU at the Georgia Dome this season, the Falcons still are averaging 31.8 points and 432 yards per game here. Two weeks ago, they dominated Arizona here to improve to 7-2-1 ATS as a home dog under Smith. Pittsburgh actually trailed Cincinnati going into the 4Q LW before outscoring them 25-0 for a misleading final. Don't discount the power of turnovers here either; the Steelers are -9 in their five losses while the Falcons, 9th overall in the league in that department, are +8 in their five wins. QB Ryan has an 11-3 TD-INT ratio at home this year. 8* Atlanta. |
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12-14-14 | Washington Redskins +7.5 v. NY Giants | Top | 13-24 | Loss | -140 | 36 h 39 m | Show |
10* Washington (1:00 ET): This isn't so much a ringing endorsement of the Redskins, but rather a play against the Giants, whom I don't believe should be favored by this many points against ANYONE, regardless of what they did LW at Tennessee. This is one of two games on this week's card that saw a significant shift from the advanced line, which was only Giants -3.5. When that happens, it's typically because one or both teams involved significantly over or under-performed expectations the previous week. In this case, you had the Giants clobbering Tennessee 36-7 on the road while Washington was shut out at home by St. Louis, 24-0. But you should be careful putting too much stock in one week. The G-Men have been a pretty terrible team all year and had dropped seven in a row before last week, also going 1-6 ATS. Take the points. In the midst of that seven-game losing skid, the Giants lost to the Jaguars. So it's not like they are w/out precedent for losing outright to a bad team. I'm not going to call for the outright win here, but laying a touchdown or more is typically a bad idea in division play. This is also a revenge game for the Redskins, who were buried w/ Kirk Cousins at QB back in Wk 4, losing at MetLife Stadium, 45-14. Now, it's not Cousins or even Robert Griffin III, but Colt McCoy. McCoy is by no means a viable long-term option at QB for this team, but he was the signal caller that engineered the upset of Dallas on the road last month. Washington has not won since that time, but a few of those games were w/ RG3 under center. I, and more importantly the coaching staff, feel McCoy still gives them the best chance to win right now. With McCoy likely not 100 percent, it would be wise for the Washington offense to feature RB Alfred Morris. They are 3-1 ATS when gets at least 20 carries & the Giants are pretty bad against the run, ranking 31st by allowing 4.9 yards per carry. Going back to that Week 4 matchup, Washington was actually favored and by losing outright they kept alive a trend that has seen the dog cash seven of eight in this NFC East rivalry. So that goes back to the idea of the points being attractive, especially in these division matchups. For all their woes, the Redskins still rank 10th in the league in passing yardage and hope to have WR DeSean Jackson back. I say they'll surprise and keep this one close. 10* Washington. |
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12-14-14 | Green Bay Packers v. Buffalo Bills +5.5 | Top | 13-21 | Win | 100 | 36 h 39 m | Show |
8* Buffalo (1:00 ET): Right now, you're not going to get an argument from most people (including myself) that Green Bay is the best team in the league. They won for the fifth straight time Monday night (9-1 SU L10), but it was the third victory in a row to come by six points or less. Right now, the Packers are a rather fortunate 5-0 SU in games decided by one possession (league-best) and I think this week in Buffalo represents a trap game. Not only is this the Bills' final home game of the year (close out @ Oakland & New England), but at 7-6 SU, they badly need to at least win two of three to have any shot at making the playoffs in the deep AFC. While I'm not convinced they'll win either, this game has a higher win probability (because it is at home) than the finale at New England. I'll give them next week at Oakland, but until then, take the points. Speaking of taking the points, doing so when you're getting the home team and the better defense is often a wise move. We always knew you could run on this Packers' defense (they allow 125.2 rushing yards per game), but last week they were exposed somewhat in giving up 37 points to the Falcons and 374 yards passing. Some of that obviously has to do w/ building a big 1st half lead. But this has been far from a great defense all year long. Meanwhile, Buffalo's D (particularly the front four) rank among the strongest in the league. They allow just 18.5 PPG while ranking 5th against the pass & 8th against the run. Last week, they held Peyton Manning & Denver to just 306 total yards, on the road. They are 23-6 ATS coming off a road loss, by the way. While Buffalo didn't win last week, they did cover for a third consecutive game. They've won their last two here at home, beating Cleveland and the Jets by a combined 64-13 margin. The defense is allowing an average of just 206 yards passing per game at home this season. We all know that Green Bay hasn't been nearly as strong on the road this season, going just 3-3 SU (2-4 ATS) while being outscored by 26 points. Their defense is allowing an average of 26.8 PPG away from home. I played against the Packers as a road favorite when they visited Minnesota three weeks ago. They haven't covered outside of Lambeau since a three-point win at Miami back on October 12th. 8* Buffalo. |
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12-11-14 | Arizona Cardinals +4.5 v. St. Louis Rams | Top | 12-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
8* Arizona (8:25 ET): While I have certainly NOT been on the Cardinals bandwagon all season, I have to say that this line surprised me a bit. Arizona, who is 10-3 and coming off a fairly impressive win over Kansas City, is now a dog at 6-7 St. Louis. Granted, the Rams are coming off B2B shutout victories. But those were against the Raiders & Redskins, two of the very worst teams in this league (combined 5-21 SU). My own personal power rankings indicate that St. Louis should be SLIGHTLY favored here, but not by a field goal or more, and the line from the previous matchup basically says the same thing as Arizona was a seven-point favorite at home. That means this one should be a lot closer to Pick 'Em, so w/ the public betting the number up even higher, I'm taking the points. Remember that it was w/ Drew Stanton at QB, not Carson Palmer, that the Cardinals made their comeback to beat the Rams back in Week 10. When Stanton entered the game, his team trailed 14-10 and almost immediately he hit WR John Brown for a 48-yard touchdown. From there two defensive TD's made the final score more lopsided than it should have been, but then again hasn't that been the case all year w/ Arizona? While their defense is middle of the pack in terms of yards allowed, they rank 2nd in the red zone and third overall in points allowed (18.3 per game). They've allowed more than 20 pts just one time in the last six games. The team has also cleaned up as a 'dog this year, going 6-2 SU/ATS. Despite a bevy of injuries, it's been "next man up" all season for the Cards, which is what we saw LW w/ RB Kerwynn Williams, who ran for 100 yards on just 19 carries LW vs. the Chiefs. With the exception of gift-wrapped 52-0 win over Oakland, this Rams' offense hasn't done much scoring this year. In fact, they've scored more than 24 pts just once in the last six games. Now that they're favored, that's going to make it difficult to cover the spread. I see this being a low-scoring game, which means points are at a premium and usually that's a sign that the underdog is the way to go. In the first meeting, the Rams' offense was held to 274 total yards. This line is an overreaction to what's happened the last two games. 8* Arizona. |
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12-07-14 | San Francisco 49ers v. Oakland Raiders +9.5 | Top | 13-24 | Win | 100 | 69 h 56 m | Show |
8* Oakland (4:25 ET): This certainly won't be the popular play of the week. But I'm fairly adamant that contrarian is the way to go when you have a home dog like this, even if that home dog lost 52-0 last week. Perhaps it was a case of a "hangover" from their first win of the season (which I called) the previous week against Kansas City, but the Raiders absolutely no-showed LW in St. Louis. But I have no similar excuse for the 49ers, who were completely shutdown themselves in a 19-3 home loss to the rival Seahawks. This offense looks lost, QB Colin Kaepernick in particular, and with all the distractions surrounding HC Jim Harbaugh right now, this just isn't a team I want any part of right now. Take the points. The Niners have previously been very good on the road under Harbaugh, but this doesn't look like the same caliber of team. They're 0-3 ATS when favored by a TD or more and in fact have lost two of those games outright. As I noted in a win plus the points w/ Minnesota (who was hosting red hot Green Bay) two weeks ago, home dogs of 8.5 or more are traditionally very safe bets, covering roughly 60% of the time. The Raiders are 3-1 ATS as DD dogs this year and that came against New England, Seattle, Denver and San Diego, all of whom are better than the 49ers right now. The line might be just under 10 here, but you get my drift. Last week saw San Francisco get held to a season-low 164 yards and they now rank 25th in the league in terms of points per game at 19.3. I'm obviously not going to make the case that the Raiders' pass defense is even close to that of the Seahawks, but they do rank 9th against the pass, allowing just 228.9 YPG. Winning by large margins just hasn't been the 49ers "thing" this year as five of their seven victories have come by six points or less. There's obviously no sugarcoating what happened to the Raiders last week, but they didn't have RB Latavius Murray, who was a difference maker against Kansas City. Look for a closer than expected game here. 8* Oakland. |
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12-07-14 | St. Louis Rams v. Washington Redskins +3 | Top | 24-0 | Loss | -102 | 66 h 33 m | Show |
8* Washington (1:00 ET): Again, you know the drill by now. St. Louis won big last week. I mean, REALLY big. As in 52-0 over the Raiders. But as a result, they're now favored on the road, something that hasn't been the case all season. In fact, in every road game so far, they've been getting at least a field goal. That's quite the swing, even if the opponent here is the moribund Redskins. But as we saw last week, QB Colt McCoy has at least injected a little bit of life into this Washington offense. They scored 27 points and ran up 425 yards against the Colts defense and don't forget that it was McCoy under center when the team upset the Cowboys. As long as he takes care of the football (Raiders had 5 TO's LW), Washington should be in this one until the very end. Take the points. The Redskins still have three home games to go. They're a respectable 2-3 SU in D.C. so far, though they did take an embarrassing loss against Tampa Bay their last time here. But that was with RGIII playing quarterback. Also, prior to last week, three of the team's previous four games were decided by a field goal or less. Though it came in a lopsided defeat, McCoy threw for a career-best 392 yards last week, completing 31 of 47 attempts. Also, this defense isn't bad! While you wouldn't know it from looking at the points allowed, they actually rank 9th against the run (102.8 YPG) and 11th overall (344 YPG). St. Louis has yet to win B2B games straight up all season. They have covered three in a row, but prior to just covering at San Diego two weeks ago in a loss, the Rams had lost by an average of 19.3 PPG in their three previous losses. They allow 25.5 PPG on the road. Now they are off their biggest win of the year and I feel primed to be upset. 8* Washington. |
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12-07-14 | Houston Texans v. Jacksonville Jaguars +7 | Top | 27-13 | Loss | -135 | 66 h 32 m | Show |
10* Jacksonville (1:00 ET): Again, we have an ugly home dog here. But the Jags did win last week, coming from 21 back to defeat the Giants here at home. You might be asking yourself: "What are the chances Jacksonville wins two weeks in a row?" Well, I'll answer that by saying they don't necessarily have to win, but rather stay within the number. I'll also point out that they did beat Houston twice last year. My final opening statement centers around the Texans and how its highly unlikely they'll play as they did LW vs. Tennessee. Specifically, I'm referring to QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, who threw 6 TD passes in his first start since regaining the job from the injured Ryan Mallett. Take the points. I'll give Houston this. They have pretty much taken care of business when favored. Their only loss in that role came two weeks ago vs. Cincinnati. They've covered both times as road chalk, against Tennessee and Oakland, but find themselves laying more points here. An overwhelming amount of the money has poured in on the Texans for this game. That's not a surprise considering the opponent, but the percentage of wagers was similarly lopsided on the Giants last week against the Jags and look what happened there. When 80%+ of all wagers are on one side, I find its often a good idea to go the other way. The Jacksonville offense scored 22 points in the second half last week and QB Blake Bortles finally made it through a game w/out throwing an INT. He also showed the rushing element he brings to the table w/ 68 yards on the ground. Meanwhile, before you get too crazy about Fitzpatrick, remember he only had 11 TD passes in his first nine starts. Tennessee has the worst defene in the league in terms of points allowed. This is also a lookahead for the Texans to a huge showdown w/ the Colts next week. 10* Jacksonville. |
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12-07-14 | Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5 v. Cincinnati Bengals | Top | 42-21 | Win | 100 | 66 h 32 m | Show |
10* Pittsburgh (1:00 ET): I talked about this last week and at the risk of alienating potential clients in Cincinnati, I point towards the Bengals' YTD point differential as a clear sign that this team is not as good as its record. After narrowly escaping Tampa Bay last week, 14-13 (which was a winner for me at +4), the Bengals have now only outscored the opposition by 13 points on the season. That's just eight best in the conference and third in their own division. Pittsburgh is +22, despite a home loss LW to New Orleans, so taking any kind of points I see the Black and Gold as a solid value this week, especially b/c QB Ben Roethlisberger is a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS in his career as a division dog in the month of December. Now the Steelers have their own issues. Losses like the one they took last week, not to mention those against Tampa Bay and the Jets earlier in the year, may very well be the reason this team doesn't make the playoffs. But having gone 1-2 SU/0-3 ATS, this is must-win territory. I'm not too concerned about Big Ben's hand as the injury occurred early in the game last week & he still put up better than usual numbers, at least in terms of yards w/ 435. Thanks to a late rally, the Steelers actually finished the game w/ 36 first downs and 538 total yds, significantly more than the Saints in both categories. Roethlisberger is 9-2 SU all-time in Cincy and we've already seen the Bengals lose here at home to Cleveland (as well as tie Carolina), so their homefield advantage is not as strong as it's been in previous years. We know Pittsburgh has struggled against those teams that you'd think they beat, but against opponents w/ a winning record, they are 9-4 SU, 8-4-1 ATS L3 years including 2-0 SU/ATS this season. So this might be the matchup they've been waiting for. Cincinati is a team I'll continue to fade down the stretch. Yes, the Bengals just won three in a row on the road. But the offense gained only 288 yards last week w/ Andy Dalton tossing three interceptions. Had they been playing a better team, they almost certainly would have lost. We saw the Steelers defense take away Jimmy Graham last week (not like it ultimately mattered), but in the past they've been very effective against AJ Green as well, limiting him to just 67.5 YPG receiving. I'll call for the "upset" in this one. 10* Pittsburgh. |
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12-07-14 | NY Jets +7 v. Minnesota Vikings | Top | 24-30 | Win | 100 | 66 h 32 m | Show |
10* NY Jets (1:00 ET): After watching the Jets blow one on Monday Night, few will want to take the points here, but I was on them against Miami and will back them once again. Sure, they're on the road (where they're winless this year). But considering they were still able to outgain the Dolphins, 326-291, despite a non-existent passing game should mean something. Minnesota was outgained 348-210 in its 31-13 win over Carolina, but that was somewhat of a misleading final as two Vikings' touchdowns came off blocked punts. So, I disagree w/ the line move as I feel the home team has become overvalued. Take the points. Almost all of the Jets yards last week came from the rushing game. They gained 277 yards over land despite the fact that the Dolphins' defense had to know it was coming. Geno Smith attempted only 13 passes and the majority of them came late on a failed two minute drill. Smith's play has never been good on the road, but I feel a similar gameplan on offense keeps this one close. Make fun all you want about the heavy run-pass discrepancy, but the Jets do rank 2nd in the league in rush offense for the year. Minnesota's defense has not been good against the run recently, allowing 157 YPG over its last three. Carolina ran for 178 against them last week. Meanwhile, I'm not concerned about the Jets' run defense, which ranks 3rd, allowing only 85.2 YPG. So, like last week vs. Miami, I expect New York to control the line of scrimmage. Vikings QB Teddy Bridgewater has not been overly impressive despite his team's 5-1 ATS stretch. He's thrown for less than 200 yards in four of those games, including each of the last three. So I'm not exactly sure how the Minnesota offense will move the ball effectively in this one, and more importantly where the points will come from. This is the most points the Vikings have been favored by in any game this season. Previously, they have not been asked to lay more than a field goal. In what should be a low-scoring game (Minnesota averages only 19.4 PPG), the underdog should be able to hang around. 10* NY Jets. |
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12-07-14 | Indianapolis Colts v. Cleveland Browns +4 | Top | 25-24 | Win | 100 | 66 h 31 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (1:00 ET): A word of warning: This is going to be somewhat of an "ugly" 3-pak. It's all home dogs, two of them out of playoff contention, all against teams coming off blowout wins last week. But as is often the case teams coming off blowout wins are typically overvalued the following week. Now, in this case, Indianapolis necessarily isn't "overvalued," but rather Cleveland is being undervalued. The Browns are the one home dog that I'm taking here that is still in playoff contention. They're 7-5 SU in fact, including 4-2 at home. Much is being made of the QB situation this week, but the reality is that there's not much of a difference between Brian Hoyer and Johnny Manziel at this point. The Colts are only 3-2 SU on the road and may be looking ahead to Houston next week. Take the points. We think of Cleveland as a team that's typically a dog. But surprisingly, they have only been getting more than a field goal three times all year and all three times they have covered. The last instance was the Thursday night win at Cincinnati. Now Indy will be the best team they face all season. But the Colts' defense is by no means dominant and earlier this year was torched in Pittsburgh as a road favorite. Cleveland's defense allows only 18.3 PPG at home. Don't be surprised if they force a couple turnovers here as Colts QB Andrew Luck has fumbled 11 times in the L8 games, but only lost five of them. Speaking of turnovers, Hoyer has thrown 5 INT's for the Browns the last two weeks as he's been forcing the ball to Josh Gordon. That's going to change. I'm going to call for Gordon to have his best game since his return as you have to remember this Colts' pass defense just gave up 341 total yards last week to Colt McCoy and Washington. Each of Indianapolis' last six games have been blowouts. Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised to see them lose a close one here! 8* Cleveland. |
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12-01-14 | Miami Dolphins v. NY Jets +7 | Top | 16-13 | Win | 105 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
10* NY Jets (8:25 ET): It's another terrible Monday night matchup for the folks at ESPN, who had no choice but to market this game as a "must win" for the visiting Dolphins while the host Jets are relegated to the role of spoiler. New York has had just a miserable season to this point, as I predicted they would (gave them out Under 7 wins), and is a league worst 2-8-1 ATS coming into this one. But they are at home tonight and that's where both of their SU wins this season have occurred. Off a horrible 38-3 loss "at" Buffalo (in Detroit) last Monday night, look for the Jets to bounce back and keep this one close as this is probably too many points for the Dolphins to lay on the road. It's a division matchup, so points are usually at a premium. Predictably, the percentage of wagers on this game is lopsided towards the road team. Miami is 6-5 and does need to win here to keep pace in the very crowded AFC Playoff picture. They have Baltimore and New England on deck before to winnable home games to end the regular season. But they've lost their last two road games, both close, to Detroit and Denver. Last week against the Broncos, they blew an 11-pt lead, which may be difficult to overcome. They ended up being outgained 450-313. Despite being 4-1 ATS their last five, Miami has been outgained in three of those games. By the way, Miami has only been a road favorite of this size once under HC Joe Philbin. That was earlier this year at Jacksonville and while they won and covered, they were lucky to do so, returning two INT's for touchdowns in a game they were outgained 377-326. The Jets are going back to Geno Smith at QB after Mike Vick was predictably ineffective. In his short career, Smith has been much better at MetLife Stadium compared to on the road. The Jets have just two road wins the L2 years, but are a respectable 8-6 SU at home. In their last home game, back before the bye, they beat Pittsburgh here. Interestingly, the road team has won four straight in this AFC East rivalry, but to continue that trend Miami must put itself in position to do something it hasn't done since '09 and that's sweep the Jets. I can see the Jets winning the battle at the line of scrimmage here. They are 3rd in rush defense and 3rd in rush offense and the Dolphins just allowed 200+ rushing yds to the Broncos last week. Take the points. 10* NY Jets. |
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11-30-14 | Denver Broncos v. Kansas City Chiefs | Top | 29-16 | Win | 100 | 97 h 51 m | Show |
10* Denver (8:25 ET): Yes, I know the Broncos haven't been nearly as impressive on the road this year. They had to come from behind LW to beat Miami at home, 39-36, not covering as six-point chalk. A lot of people will be expecting Kansas City to bounce back here after suffering an embarrassing loss two Thursdays ago to the previously winless Raiders. But I feel that setback (which I called!) exposed the Chiefs in some regards. QB Alex Smith did not attempt a pass longer than 20 yards all game and don't forget his receivers don't have a single TD catch this year. They allowed 179 yards rushing at 6.0 yards per carry to an Oakland offense that is among the worst in the league. Denver has never lost to KC w/ Peyton Manning at QB and that streak will continue Sunday night. The Broncos come off a season-high 201 yards rushing LW vs. Miami. C.J Anderson has been a revelation behind Manning, averaging 5.6 YPC. While the Chiefs own the league's best pass defense, their numbers should go up here facing Manning, who has thrown for 300+ yards in six of the last nine games. Expect a "balanced" approach from Denver on offense here. I still feel Kansas City is due to start "giving some back" after a 5-game SU/ATS win streak that was snapped LW. Not only are they 0-5 SU vs. Manning since he came to Denver, but they are 1-12 SU all-time against him. Last week against Oakland, they were 2 for 14 on third-down. For the season, their longest pass play is only 34 yards. The defense has forced just nine turnovers. These teams played in Week 2 and Denver won 24-17 despite only having the ball for only 23 minutes and running just 46 plays. This looks to be a pretty cheap price on the Broncos as the line for that Week 2 matchup was double digits. Kansas City had gone 7-1 SU/ATS before losing last week since falling to the Broncos, but basically needing "only" a SU win from Manning and company is a real steal as Denver is 15-1 SU vs. the AFC West the L3 seasons. They're undervalued in this spot. 10* Denver. |
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11-30-14 | New England Patriots v. Green Bay Packers -2.5 | Top | 21-26 | Win | 100 | 6 h 13 m | Show |
8* Green Bay (4:25 ET): This is a possible Super Bowl preview w/ the 8-3 Packers hosting the 9-2 Patriots. New England already has the inside track to homefield advantage in the AFC while Green Bay still trails Arizona by one game in the NFC. But when all is said and done, don't be surprised to see Aaron Rodgers and the Pack as the #1 seed in the conference. This is a very hot team right now w/ a fairly favorable schedule in front of it. I wasn't concerned over the 5-3 start as the team played most of its tough games, including road trips to Seattle and New Orleans, early. Here at home, they've been essentially unbeatable, going 5-0 SU, 4-0-1 ATS while averaging an astounding 43.8 points per game. That's enough for me to overlook Bill Belichick's strong career ATS record as a dog. Lay the points. The last two times Green Bay has played here at Lambeau, they have topped 50 points both times. The last time was against a good Philadelphia team. Their average margin of victory at home so far is greater than four touchdowns per game! Coming off the close call LW at Minnesota (I had the Vikings!), I see the Pack as undervalued here. Yes, New England is 4-0 SU/ATS as dogs this year (now 45-21 ATS all-time under Belichick), but to me the lopsided amount of wagering on the road dog here is crazy. Green Bay is really only drawing 33% of online action as a three-point favorite, at home? That's crazy! There's nothing phony about New England's seven-game win streak as they're 6-1 ATS and have beaten three straight division leaders. But might they have reached a tipping point? To me, this is the most challenging game they'll play all season. Aaron Rodgers has an 18-0 TD-INT ratio at home this year and will break 3,000 yards for the season in the first quarter of this one. He leads the league in passer rating (119.3) w/ a 30-3 YTD TD-INT ratio. There is no shame in New England losing this game, they're just playing a very good opponent on the road. This may not be the last time these teams play this year as a rematch on a neutral field (it's called the Super Bowl!) will be the favored call come playoff time. By the way, the Pats are 0-8 ATS their last 8 games on grass. 8* Green Bay. |
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11-30-14 | Arizona Cardinals v. Atlanta Falcons +1.5 | Top | 18-29 | Win | 100 | 30 h 17 m | Show |
10* Atlanta (4:05 ET): Yes, I know that all week you've heard about how much the NFC South stinks. Improbably, the 4-7 Falcons, off a home loss to Cleveland last week, remain tied for first place in the division. But at the same time, I still am not a buyer on the Cardinals, who were exposed a bit in LW's loss to Seattle. I'm well aware that Atlanta doesn't have the same type of defense that Seattle does, but Arizona really struggled offensively last week and this is a team I'll likely play against regularly down the stretch. How long can they continue to win w/ Drew Stanton at QB? Not having WR Larry Fitzgerald again (gametime decision) would be a major blow. For years, the Falcons have been a dominant home team, so I can't see them dropping B2B games at the Georgia Dome. Take the points. Atlanta really let one slip away last week, thanks to some very poor clock management from HC Mike Smith. They did allow 475 total yards, but still were in a position to win in the final minute. Matt Ryan and the passing attack remain just fine as the Falcons' offense ranks 7th in the league in passing and is 3rd in the red zone. I give them the edge over Arizona's offense, which gained only 204 total yards last week. Over the last two games, the Cardinals have just 17 total points and haven't scored a TD in seven quarters. Arizona has struggled to run the ball recently w/ RB Andre Ellington not doing a good job inside the tackles (just 3.3 YPC). As a result, the Cards rank 31st in the league in rush yards. I can see this one turning into a more of a shootout than expected and that favors Atlanta at home. Arizona has not beaten Atlanta since '93. The fact that the Falcons have lost three straight at the Georgia Dome is pretty shocking, considering how dominant they've been here in the past w/ Ryan at QB. They did win outright they only previous time they were a home dog, back in Week 1 vs. New Orleans (had 'em!). Also, I know that the Falcons are 0-7 SU so far against non-division foes, but eventually that has to change. I'd argue this game means FAR more to the home team, who could possibly be in first place all by themselves by the end of the day. At 8-3 ATS, the Cardinals are due for more regression. 10* Atlanta. |
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11-30-14 | San Diego Chargers +7 v. Baltimore Ravens | Top | 34-33 | Win | 100 | 89 h 22 m | Show |
8* San Diego (1:00 ET): As they would have hoped for given the schedule, the Chargers have come out of their bye week and produced B2B wins over the Raiders and Rams. But neither was really impressive (failed to cover both). So despite being 7-4 SU (same as Baltimore), this almost has a feel of a "must win" for the Lightning Bolts, who currently do not have tiebreakers against other fellow playoff contenders such as Kansas City and Miami. Granted, the Ravens' margin for error is quite slim playing in a division (AFC North) where EVERY team is at least three games above .500. But they seem a bit overvalued coming off the big MNF win in New Orleans, which may also have something to do w/ San Diego having failed to cover six in a row. They have to cover sooner or later, right? Take the points. The Chargers are not a team that loses big often. They have lost only twice by double digits the last two seasons and that came in B2B games this year, at Denver and Miami. Remember that before the current six-game ATS losing streak, San Diego opened the year 5-0 ATS. They should look to pass in this matchup as New Orleans' QB Drew Brees threw for 420 yards and three touchdowns in loss Monday night against this depleted Ravens' secondary, which already ranks 29th against the pass (264.6 YPG) Having RB Ryan Matthews back is also key as LW he went for 105 yards on only 12 carries and that was against a solid St. Louis' defensive front. This San Diego offense is due to start converting in the red zone after not scoring a TD there in the L2 games. San Diego is 3-2 ATS this season when taking points and seems like a good value here in a battle of two pretty even teams. Yes, Baltimore has one of the better point differentials in the league, but that has a lot to do w/ a 48-17 beatdown of 2-9 Tampa Bay. Also, while this may be an early start time for the West Coast Chargers, don't discount the impact the short week can have on the Ravens as LY they got blown out here at home (by New England) following a MNF win over Detroit. As a single digit dog of more than a field goal, the Chargers are 7-2 ATS the L3 seasons. 8* San Diego. |
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11-30-14 | Cincinnati Bengals v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers +4 | Top | 14-13 | Win | 100 | 27 h 14 m | Show |
10* Tampa Bay (1:00 ET): This is a classic trap game for Cincinnati, who is trying to win three straight road games. But at 7-3-1, the Bengals have overachieved in my opinion considering their YTD point differential is just +12. That's inferior to the team they just beat last week, 5-6 Houston, who is at +16. For me, this is a play against team down the stretch as I see them faltering. Predictably, the percentage of wagers on the road favorite here is pretty lopsided. But beware of Tampa Bay, as they not only outgained Chicago (367-204), but are the lone remaining team in the league w/out a home victory. Take the points. I would say the Bucs are not nearly as bad as their record. Yes, they've had a couple embarrassing defeats, but they've actually been in a majority of games. Last week, they led the Bears 10-0 at the half before imploding w/ three 3rd quarter turnovers. Rookie Mike Evans continues to play well, recording a TD in four straight games and he actually leads all receivers in November w/ 505 yards. There's definitely some talent here, on both sides of the ball. You also have to consider that despite Tampa Bay's terrible record, that they are still in the playoff chase (just two games back!) because of how terrible the NFC South is. They aren't going to simply "roll over" here. They're 4-4 ATS as a dogs this year, including two outright upsets. You've probably heard all week about just how awful the NFC South has been. Collectively, the division is 1-10-1 vs. the AFC North, which is why one division has no team better than 4-7 SU and the other has all four teams at 7-4 or better. But the Bengals come into Sunday a little bit wounded. They're now w/out OL Andre Smith for the year. That not only hampers pass protection, but the running game as well. There has been somewhat of a large focus on the Cincinnati rushing attack here, but beware that the Bucs' defense has allowed less than 4.0 YPC in three of its past four games. Let's also not forget about turnover-prone Andy Dalton, who has had four multi-turnover games already this year and threw a pick-six last week. Don't forget that the NFC South's lone non-conf win this season belongs to the Bucs, who upset Pittsburgh (I was on that one!). 10* Tampa Bay |
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Bryan Power NFL Top Sides Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
10-04-15 | Philadelphia Eagles v. Washington Redskins +3 | Top | 20-23 | Win | 110 | 101 h 15 m | Show |
10-04-15 | Kansas City Chiefs +4 v. Cincinnati Bengals | Top | 21-36 | Loss | -105 | 101 h 15 m | Show |
09-28-15 | Kansas City Chiefs +7 v. Green Bay Packers | Top | 28-38 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 35 m | Show |
09-27-15 | Buffalo Bills v. Miami Dolphins -2.5 | Top | 41-14 | Loss | -115 | 122 h 33 m | Show |
09-27-15 | Philadelphia Eagles +2.5 v. NY Jets | Top | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 118 h 9 m | Show |
09-27-15 | New Orleans Saints +9.5 v. Carolina Panthers | Top | 22-27 | Win | 100 | 41 h 22 m | Show |
09-24-15 | Washington Redskins v. NY Giants -4 | Top | 21-32 | Win | 100 | 54 h 35 m | Show |
09-20-15 | Miami Dolphins v. Jacksonville Jaguars +7 | Top | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 99 h 27 m | Show |
09-20-15 | Tennessee Titans v. Cleveland Browns | Top | 14-28 | Loss | -125 | 96 h 23 m | Show |
09-20-15 | Arizona Cardinals v. Chicago Bears +2.5 | Top | 48-23 | Loss | -110 | 96 h 23 m | Show |
09-20-15 | San Francisco 49ers v. Pittsburgh Steelers -5 | Top | 18-43 | Win | 100 | 96 h 23 m | Show |
09-20-15 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +11 v. New Orleans Saints | Top | 26-19 | Win | 100 | 96 h 22 m | Show |
09-17-15 | Denver Broncos v. Kansas City Chiefs -3 | Top | 31-24 | Loss | -113 | 32 h 49 m | Show |
09-14-15 | Minnesota Vikings v. San Francisco 49ers +3 | Top | 3-20 | Win | 100 | 44 h 57 m | Show |
09-14-15 | Philadelphia Eagles v. Atlanta Falcons +3 | Top | 24-26 | Win | 100 | 41 h 48 m | Show |
09-13-15 | NY Giants +6 v. Dallas Cowboys | Top | 26-27 | Win | 100 | 198 h 36 m | Show |
09-13-15 | Cincinnati Bengals v. Oakland Raiders +3.5 | Top | 33-13 | Loss | -113 | 194 h 31 m | Show |
09-13-15 | Detroit Lions v. San Diego Chargers -2.5 | Top | 28-33 | Win | 100 | 193 h 12 m | Show |
09-13-15 | Cleveland Browns v. NY Jets -3 | Top | 10-31 | Win | 100 | 558 h 31 m | Show |
09-13-15 | Green Bay Packers v. Chicago Bears +7 | Top | 31-23 | Loss | -125 | 190 h 7 m | Show |
02-01-15 | Seattle Seahawks v. New England Patriots | Top | 24-28 | Loss | -100 | 251 h 21 m | Show |
01-18-15 | Green Bay Packers +8.5 v. Seattle Seahawks | Top | 22-28 | Win | 100 | 46 h 22 m | Show |
01-11-15 | Dallas Cowboys v. Green Bay Packers -6 | Top | 21-26 | Loss | -100 | 114 h 16 m | Show |
01-10-15 | Baltimore Ravens v. New England Patriots -7 | Top | 31-35 | Loss | -100 | 94 h 47 m | Show |
01-04-15 | Detroit Lions +8 v. Dallas Cowboys | Top | 20-24 | Win | 100 | 135 h 11 m | Show |
01-04-15 | Cincinnati Bengals +4 v. Indianapolis Colts | Top | 10-26 | Loss | -106 | 132 h 31 m | Show |
01-03-15 | Baltimore Ravens +4 v. Pittsburgh Steelers | Top | 30-17 | Win | 100 | 115 h 46 m | Show |
01-03-15 | Arizona Cardinals +6 v. Carolina Panthers | Top | 16-27 | Loss | -115 | 111 h 6 m | Show |
12-28-14 | Cincinnati Bengals v. Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 102 | 53 h 1 m | Show |
12-28-14 | Carolina Panthers v. Atlanta Falcons -3 | Top | 34-3 | Loss | -115 | 49 h 56 m | Show |
12-28-14 | Indianapolis Colts v. Tennessee Titans +7.5 | Top | 27-10 | Loss | -123 | 46 h 32 m | Show |
12-28-14 | San Diego Chargers v. Kansas City Chiefs | Top | 7-19 | Win | 100 | 46 h 32 m | Show |
12-22-14 | Denver Broncos -3.5 v. Cincinnati Bengals | Top | 28-37 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 57 m | Show |
12-21-14 | New England Patriots v. NY Jets +11.5 | Top | 17-16 | Win | 100 | 41 h 20 m | Show |
12-21-14 | Detroit Lions v. Chicago Bears +9.5 | Top | 20-14 | Win | 100 | 41 h 20 m | Show |
12-21-14 | Green Bay Packers v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers +13 | Top | 20-3 | Loss | -125 | 41 h 19 m | Show |
12-21-14 | Kansas City Chiefs +3 v. Pittsburgh Steelers | Top | 12-20 | Loss | -105 | 41 h 31 m | Show |
12-21-14 | Cleveland Browns +4 v. Carolina Panthers | Top | 13-17 | Push | 0 | 41 h 31 m | Show |
12-20-14 | San Diego Chargers +2.5 v. San Francisco 49ers | Top | 38-35 | Win | 100 | 92 h 46 m | Show |
12-20-14 | Philadelphia Eagles v. Washington Redskins +9 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 88 h 52 m | Show |
12-15-14 | New Orleans Saints v. Chicago Bears +3 | Top | 31-15 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
12-14-14 | San Francisco 49ers +10.5 v. Seattle Seahawks | Top | 7-17 | Win | 100 | 39 h 4 m | Show |
12-14-14 | Minnesota Vikings +9 v. Detroit Lions | Top | 14-16 | Win | 100 | 39 h 3 m | Show |
12-14-14 | Pittsburgh Steelers v. Atlanta Falcons +2 | Top | 27-20 | Loss | -103 | 36 h 40 m | Show |
12-14-14 | Washington Redskins +7.5 v. NY Giants | Top | 13-24 | Loss | -140 | 36 h 39 m | Show |
12-14-14 | Green Bay Packers v. Buffalo Bills +5.5 | Top | 13-21 | Win | 100 | 36 h 39 m | Show |
12-11-14 | Arizona Cardinals +4.5 v. St. Louis Rams | Top | 12-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
12-07-14 | San Francisco 49ers v. Oakland Raiders +9.5 | Top | 13-24 | Win | 100 | 69 h 56 m | Show |
12-07-14 | St. Louis Rams v. Washington Redskins +3 | Top | 24-0 | Loss | -102 | 66 h 33 m | Show |
12-07-14 | Houston Texans v. Jacksonville Jaguars +7 | Top | 27-13 | Loss | -135 | 66 h 32 m | Show |
12-07-14 | Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5 v. Cincinnati Bengals | Top | 42-21 | Win | 100 | 66 h 32 m | Show |
12-07-14 | NY Jets +7 v. Minnesota Vikings | Top | 24-30 | Win | 100 | 66 h 32 m | Show |
12-07-14 | Indianapolis Colts v. Cleveland Browns +4 | Top | 25-24 | Win | 100 | 66 h 31 m | Show |
12-01-14 | Miami Dolphins v. NY Jets +7 | Top | 16-13 | Win | 105 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
11-30-14 | Denver Broncos v. Kansas City Chiefs | Top | 29-16 | Win | 100 | 97 h 51 m | Show |
11-30-14 | New England Patriots v. Green Bay Packers -2.5 | Top | 21-26 | Win | 100 | 6 h 13 m | Show |
11-30-14 | Arizona Cardinals v. Atlanta Falcons +1.5 | Top | 18-29 | Win | 100 | 30 h 17 m | Show |
11-30-14 | San Diego Chargers +7 v. Baltimore Ravens | Top | 34-33 | Win | 100 | 89 h 22 m | Show |
11-30-14 | Cincinnati Bengals v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers +4 | Top | 14-13 | Win | 100 | 27 h 14 m | Show |