Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-13-22 | Rams -4 v. Bengals | Top | 23-20 | Loss | -110 | 152 h 17 m | Show |
10* LA Rams (6:30 ET): Cincinnati has been a wonderful story this season, making it to just their third Super Bowl in history. This is a franchise that had not won a playoff game going all the way back to 1990. But let’s be frank here; the Bengals have been outgained on a per play basis in each of the last three games. In their first AFC Championship Game appearance since 1988, they found themselves down 21-3 to the Chiefs, yet somehow pulled out a miraculous 27-24 overtime win. The Bengals feel like they will be a very “public dog” come Super Sunday, thus I’m going to fade them. I think people are forgetting that this is the second time in four years that the Rams are appearing in the Super Bowl. The last time didn’t go well as they lost 13-3 to the Patriots in the lowest scoring SB ever. But this Rams team is better AND playing on its home field. Now, SoFi Stadium isn’t exactly the strongest homefield advantage in the league. But the Rams are 7-3 SU here this season and know the place well. Let’s not forget what happened in LY’s SB when Tampa Bay, playing on its homefield, destroyed Kansas City. It’s pretty interesting that no team played in its home stadium for the first 49 Super Bowls and now it’s happened two years in a row. The Rams have pretty clearly been the better team in all three of their playoff games. They boat raced Arizona (in this stadium), then went on the road and took a 27-3 lead over Tampa Bay. That game should have never ended up being so close at the end. In the NFC Championship, the Rams did trail most of the way, but also outgained the 49ers 396-282. The big key in this matchup is the Rams’ defense, which is easily the best Cincinnati will have faced this season. Incredibly, the Bengals have faced just ONE top 10 defense in 2021-22! Again, it’s been a nice story out of Cincy, but look for it to end poorly and this team to regress next year. The Rams are simply better. 10* LA Rams |
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01-30-22 | 49ers v. Rams -3.5 | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 31 m | Show |
10* LA Rams (6:30 ET): So the 49ers swept the regular season series and have now beaten the Rams six straight times (while going 5-1 ATS). I actually had the Niners in both regular season matchups. The first time they were 3.5 point underdogs at home on MNF. That was the game that really turned around their season. San Fran was just 3-5 SU at that time and hadn’t won a home game in more than a year. They ended up prevailing rather easily, 31-10. The second meeting had far more importance as this time the Niners needed to win to make the playoffs. That’s why I took them plus the points and it ended up being a 27-24 outright win in overtime. While the Niners were deserved winners here in LA back in Week 18 (ended up +184 in total yards), allow me to remind you that the Rams led 17-0 at halftime. It is the only time during his head coaching tenure that Sean McVay lost a game when leading at the break (45-0). The 49ers again rallied from a halftime deficit in the Divisional Round, ousting the top seeded Packers on a last second field goal, 13-10. But remember that wouldn’t have been possible without returning a blocked punt for a TD in the 4Q. I’m aware that the Niners have been real “road warriors” in recent years, but their luck is about to run out here. Let’s start with the fact that no team has won four straight games, all on the road, without a bye since 1961. Teams in the playoffs that are playing their fourth consecutive road game are 0-6 SU and 0-5-1 ATS. I think the 49ers were a little lucky to prevail against both Dallas (who had bad clock management) and Green Bay (gained only 212 total yards). The Rams have been far more impressive in their two playoff wins, routing Arizona 34-11 and taking a 27-3 lead at Tampa Bay. I find it very hard to believe that the Rams would lose a seventh straight time to the Niners. They didn’t have anything to really play for the last time. Jimmy G remains a liability for a team that easily could have lost all of its last three games. Lay the points. 10* LA Rams |
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01-30-22 | Bengals v. Chiefs -6.5 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -130 | 7 h 32 m | Show |
8* Kansas City (3:00 ET): These teams met in the regular season and it quickly turned into a shootout with the Bengals eventually coming out on top, 34-31 as 3.5-point underdogs. But that game took place in Cincinnati. I don’t see these young upstarts beating KC twice in the same season. There’s only been one instance of Chiefs QB Mahomes losing twice to the same team in the same season. The loss to the Bengals is the only time KC has gone down since early November and they’ve put up 42 points in each playoff win. The Bengals have done well as underdogs this season, but KC is just the 11th team in the Super Bowl era to be favored in each of its first 19 games. The last four have all gone on to the Super Bowl. This will be the 13th consecutive time the Chiefs have been favored to win in the playoffs, the last 10 all coming with Mahomes as QB, a stretch that has seen the team go 7-3 ATS. They are 4-1 ATS when favored by at least four points, as they are here. Cincy just has the feeling of a “public dog” in this spot. They deserve kudos for making it thus far, but also beat a subpar Raiders team in the Wild Card Round, then arguably the weakest #1 seed we’ve ever seen (Tennessee) last weekend. Kansas City beat a subpar Pittsburgh team in Wild Card Weekend, but then ousted the #1 team in my power rankings (Buffalo) last week. The Chiefs’ offense has averaged 7.5 yards per play in the two playoff wins! The Bengals have actually been outgained on a per play basis in both of their playoff wins. Lay the points. 8* Kansas City |
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01-23-22 | Bills +2.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 36-42 | Loss | -113 | 99 h 24 m | Show |
10* Buffalo (6:30 ET): The Bills looked pretty “Super” to me in destroying New England 47-17 last week, so - as underdogs - I’m making them my 10* Game of the Year this Sunday at Kansas City. Yes, the Chiefs looked pretty strong in their own right in the Wild Card Round. But that was against a subpar Steelers team that had no business even being in the playoff field. Let us not forget how the Bills came to Arrowhead Stadium earlier this season (Week 5) and really beat the Chiefs up, then walking away 38-20 winners. The Patriots team that the Bills destroyed last week were #3 in the league in regular season point differential. So that was a much more impressive win than what KC did vs. Pittsburgh. Really, I haven’t seen many more impressive performances than what the Bills turned in last Saturday. They scored touchdowns on all seven drives that did not end with a kneel down at the end of a half. This against a top five regular season defense. Prior to backup QB Mitchell Trubisky coming in for “mop-up duty” (three kneel downs), the Bills’ offense gained 480 total yards on just 51 total plays. Let’s talk about the Bills’ defense for a moment. It allowed the fewest points during the regular season, resulting in the league’s point differential. Another area where the Bills are #1 in the NFL in yards per play differential. So this is going to be a big step up in class for the Chiefs, who have a bit of a misleading 7-3 SU record vs. fellow playoff teams (including last week). Four of those seven wins were against the Raiders and Steelers, the two worst playoff teams. They also beat Philadelphia early in the season (Week 3) and Green Bay w/o Aaron Rodgers. Buffalo should have had a better record, but was 0-5 in one-score games. The Bills are my #1 rated team in the power rankings and should win here. Take the points. 10* Buffalo |
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01-17-22 | Cardinals v. Rams -3.5 | Top | 11-34 | Win | 100 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
10* LA Rams (8:15 ET): The Cardinals and Rams split two regular season meetings, both winning on the road. That’s the exact same scenario we had with Patriots-Bills on Saturday (a game where I backed the Bills, as part of a teaser, at home). I’ll do the same here with the Rams, figuring it’s highly unlikely that the home team would lose all three meetings in a season series. I know that Arizona has been the quintessential “road warrior” this season (8-1 SU/ATS), but my view is that the Rams are the better team. It wasn’t just the Cardinals’ road record that defied logic in the regular season. They also come into the playoffs a perfect 6-0 ATS as underdogs this year, winning straight up all six times. Per ESPN’s Stats & Info department, it’s the most outright wins as a dog in a single season, without a loss, during the Super Bowl Era! But this is no longer the same team that started the year 7-0 SU. They went just 4-6 SU down the stretch and no longer have WR DeAndre Hopkins, a major loss. This will also be QB Kyler Murray’s first playoff game. The Rams are better built for the playoffs than the Cardinals. They’ve also played better down the stretch. Los Angeles hasn’t lost a game in regulation since November 28th at Lambeau Field. That run includes a 30-23 win at Arizona on MNF. HC Sean McVay has owned Arizona during his tenure here, going 9-1 SU and ATS. Going back to that Arizona underdog trend, teams with a perfect ATS regular season record as dogs (at least two wins) cash only 40% in the playoffs. 10* LA Rams |
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01-16-22 | 49ers v. Cowboys -2.5 | Top | 23-17 | Loss | -125 | 43 h 21 m | Show |
8* Dallas (4:30 ET): This is the lone Wild Card game where the teams involved did NOT meet in the regular season. Perhaps the uncertainty of how this game will look is the reason oddsmakers set such a “vanilla” number, but in my opinion the line is far too low. Dallas led the NFC in point differential (+172) and while it should be noted they really did beat up on their lousy division (NFC East), part of their league-best 12-5 ATS mark was a 10-3 ATS record when favored. I really have a hard time believing that Jimmy Garoppolo is going to win a playoff game on the road. Now that may seem strange because of the fact I took Jimmy G and the Niners last week, plus the points, against the Rams. But that was a situation where they NEEDED to win and the Rams had already clinched a playoff spot. Despite that dynamic, SF found itself down 17-0 in the first half. They tied the game with a late TD in regulation before winning on a FG in overtime. Now had the 49ers been matched up with another team here in the Wild Card Round, I might have considered them. But this is a bad matchup. The 49ers’ defense allowed 51 pass plays of 20+ yards. That sounds bad when getting set to face this Cowboys’ offense. With receivers CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper healthy, which they are now, this is a tough group to stop. Dallas averages 36.4 PPG at home! On the flip side, San Francisco is 2-6 SU this season when Garoppolo throws two or more interceptions. The Cowboys have a +14 turnover differential. I have too much respect for the Cowboys, who are #1 in DVOA, not to take them here at home. 8* Dallas |
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01-09-22 | Chargers -3 v. Raiders | Top | 32-35 | Loss | -106 | 53 h 37 m | Show |
10* LA Chargers (8:20 ET): In the name of point differential, the Chargers MUST win this game. They have outscored opponents by 18 points this season. That’s certainly nothing special, but it’s what you’d expect from a 9-7 SU team that’s trying to grab one of the final playoff spots in the AFC. It’s far more impressive than Las Vegas, who is also 9-7 SU but has been outscored this year by 68 points. It is my view that the Raiders do not belong in the playoffs. Look for the Chargers to win (and cover) the final game of the regular season. These teams met back in Week 4 and I had the foresight to get down on Los Angeles, who went on to win 28-14. It was 21-0 at halftime and the Chargers finished with a 380-213 edge in total yards and 25-13 edge in first downs. For this rematch, yes the game is in Vegas, but the Raiders haven’t shown much of a home field advantage at Allegiant Stadium (3-5 SU here this season) and it’s not like the Chargers benefited from any home field edge at So-Fi Stadium (they have the weakest home field advantage in the league). Assuming that the Colts win earlier in the day (to move to 10-7 SU), then this becomes a “winner take all” game for the final playoff spot. If the Colts somehow lost, which is unlikely as they are facing the Jaguars, then BOTH of these teams could make the playoffs with a tie. I think the idea of playing for a tie in today’s NFL seems absurd. So I’m banking on Justin Herbert, who has previously led his team to victories in Kansas City, Philadelphia and Cincinnati (all playoff teams). The Raiders are a very lucky 6-2 SU in one-score games. Their luck runs out here. 10* LA Chargers |
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01-09-22 | 49ers +4.5 v. Rams | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 27 h 28 m | Show |
9* San Francisco (4:25 ET): The 49ers (9-7 SU) need to win this game to ensure they make the playoffs. They could also get in with a Saints loss, but given who the Saints are facing (Falcons), they shouldn’t count on that. The Rams (12-4 SU) need a win here to clinch the NFC West. So both teams are invested in this Week 18 matchup. But the stakes are clearly higher for San Francisco, who has already beaten the Rams once this season, 31-10. I’ll take them plus the points in the rematch. I was on the Niners the first time these teams met. It was on MNF and quickly turned into a blowout as it was 14-0 after the first quarter. For the entirety of the second half, the Niners would maintain a two touchdown advantage. That was the game that really turned their season around. SF was only 3-5 SU heading into the game. They’ve won six of eight since. The two losses, both on the road, were by seven points or less. They clearly should have won the game in Tennessee. Believe it or not, the 49ers now rank 3rd in the league in yards per play differential, a metric that I really value. Now the big story heading into Week 18 is who will play QB for San Francisco. HC Kyle Shanahan and his team obviously knows, but the Rams do not. I view this as an obvious edge for the underdog. Jimmy Garoppolo, who missed last week due to a right thumb injury, reportedly had a “good week of practice.” So he could be back in the starting lineup. Or it might be rookie Trey Lance, who guided the team to an easy 23-7 win over the Texans last week. Either way, I like the Niners plus the points over a Rams team that’s been a little lucky the last few weeks. 9* San Francisco |
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01-09-22 | Steelers +5 v. Ravens | Top | 16-13 | Win | 100 | 44 h 26 m | Show |
9* Pittsburgh (1:00 ET): Both teams are mathematically alive for the playoffs, but it’s going to take plenty of help. The Steelers obviously must win here, then have the Jaguars beat the Colts and hope Chargers-Raiders doesn’t end in a tie. The Ravens’ chances are even more bleak as they need to win and have the Colts, Dolphins and Chargers all lose. I don’t think much of Pittsburgh (-58 point differential), but Baltimore (five straight losses with four coming by two points or less!) is a sinking ship right now. So take the points. It was announced Friday that Lamar Jackson will miss his fourth straight game due to a right ankle injury. The Ravens haven’t won since their QB got hurt, although the two games started by Tyler Huntley were both one-point losses. But don’t forget they were dominated at home by the Packers before making things interesting late. Then they were dominated by the Bengals with Jackson and Huntley both out. Last week, with Huntley back, the Ravens blew a 16-7 4Q lead and lost to the Rams 20-19. I just don’t see this team “getting off the mat” after such a slew of close losses. Pittsburgh is off an emotional Monday night in what was likely Ben Roethlisberger’s final home game. They beat the Browns 26-14. It was the Steelers that began the Ravens’ downfall with a 20-19 win back on December 5th, the first of two times John Harbaugh infamous went for two and the win, only to fail and lose the game. While the Steelers have been shakier on the road of late, I like that their defense is giving up only 4.7 yards per play the last three weeks while the Ravens’ defense has allowed 7.4 YPP over the same time. The Steelers are 34-15-2 ATS L51 tries as an underdog. 9* Pittsburgh |
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01-08-22 | Chiefs v. Broncos +11 | Top | 28-24 | Win | 100 | 25 h 19 m | Show |
10* Denver (4:35 ET): Last week’s loss to Cincinnati means Kansas City essentially blew its opportunity to gain home field advantage in the playoffs. They still have a chance at being the top seed, mind you, but that would require not just winning here, but also Tennessee losing to Houston on Sunday, which probably isn’t going to happen. Now the Chiefs still do have some motivation on Saturday. A win would guarantee them no lower than the two-seed, meaning the possibility of two home playoff games. But I don’t think that necessarily guarantees they will go out and win by double digits here. Take the points here. After a 3-0 start to the season, the Broncos are just 4-9 in their L13 games, leaving them at 19-29 SU in HC Vic Fangio’s three seasons here. There’s a lot more questions than answers for this team as it will miss the postseason for a sixth straight year. But Denver does have a great defense, one that is ninth overall in yards allowed, third in scoring, seventh against the pass and 14th against the run. They will be missing a few starters on that side of the ball for this final game, but recall that they were able to limit KC QB Mahomes to just 15 completions - and zero touchdown passes - in the first meeting, which was a very misleading 22-9 loss. In that loss, the Broncos actually outgained the Chiefs 404-267 and had seven more first downs for the game. But they were limited to just three field goals and turned it over three times, one of which was an interception returned for a TD. That was the 12th straight loss for Denver to KC and while I don’t see that streak ending Saturday, look for the Broncos - thanks to their defense - to keep this one close. I think it’s going to be tough for KC to “get up” for this game after blowing a 28-14 lead at Cincinnati last week. The Chiefs’ defense gave up 475 yards, so there’s hope for Drew Lock and the Denver offense. 10* Denver |
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01-02-22 | Vikings v. Packers -13 | Top | 10-37 | Win | 100 | 27 h 49 m | Show |
8* Green Bay (8:25 ET): The Packers should destroy the Vikings Sunday Night as the road team will be without QB Kirk Cousins. This is a revenge game for Green Bay, which lost the first meeting in Minnesota, 34-31 on a last second field goal. While they lost, Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense averaged an impressive 8.6 yards per play against the Vikings’ defense. At home, the Packers are 7-0 this season and averaging 29.7 PPG. The Vikings’ defensive numbers get much worse on the road. While Rodgers figures to lead the Packers’ offense to a big day, you can’t expect much here from the Minnesota offense. The loss of Cousins is huge as he threw for 341 yards and three touchdowns in the first meeting. It will be Sean Mannion making just his third career start on Sunday night and he won’t have WR Adam Thielen to throw to. It’s expected to be very cold in Lambeau, which will have an adverse effect on a Vikings team that plays its home games indoors. The defense gives up 26.9 PPG on the road. Green Bay is a perfect 4-0 ATS in primetime games this season and 12-4 ATS in them all-time under HC Matt LaFleur. Overall, they are 11-4 ATS this season, including 6-1 at home. Rodgers has been absolutely on fire of late with a 16-0 TD-INT ratio the last five games. He is 25-12 ATS at home vs. NFC North teams. The Packers are looking to lock down home field advantage for the NFC playoffs, which would be huge for them given their record at Lambeau. I am predicting this will easily be the Vikings’ biggest loss of the season. 8* Green Bay |
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01-02-22 | Lions +7.5 v. Seahawks | Top | 29-51 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 53 m | Show |
10* Detroit (4:25 ET): The Lions obviously don’t win many games (they are 2-12-1 straight up), but they do cover regularly. I like them this week plus the points against what is likely to be an unmotivated Seattle side. The Lions’ 10-5 ATS record is third best in the league, only trailing the Packers and Cowboys. Five of their losses this season have come by four points or less, including last week’s (20-16) against Atlanta. Since the bye, they are 6-1 ATS with three of their four SU losses coming by four or less. They tied the Steelers and beat the Vikings and Cardinals during that time. For the season, the Lions are 9-2 ATS as an underdog of four or more points and they’ve covered four straight times off a loss. Seattle has only been outscored by a single point this year, but they are 5-10 SU and were officially eliminated from playoff contention with last week’s loss to the Bears. Again, I have to come back to the issue of motivation as the Seahawks are just the fourth team since 2018 to be at least a six-point favorites despite entering the game with at least 10 losses. The previous teams in this role all lost the game outright! Over the L11 games, Seattle is only 3-8 SU with two of the wins coming against Jacksonville and Houston. They are 2-5 SU at home this season and with nothing left to play for, them laying points seems a bit dicey. QB Jared Goff is doubtful to play here, but his impact is minimal. The return of RB D’Andre Swift is significant though as are the contributions of WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, who is just the second rookie to have 7+ receptions in four straight games. Russell Wilson has not been himself since returning from injury as he ranks just 22nd in QBR and has now failed to throw for 300 yards in 10 consecutive games, his longest stretch since his rookie year. The Seahawks’ offense is dead last in the league in third down conversion rate (33.7%), a massive problem. Take the points. 10* Detroit |
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01-02-22 | Texans v. 49ers -12 | Top | 7-23 | Win | 100 | 23 h 34 m | Show |
8* San Francisco (4:05 ET): I know that the 49ers may not have Jimmy Garoppolo this week, but based on how the QB performed last week, that may not be a bad thing. Plus the Niners will be facing the Texans, one of the league’s worst teams. If Garoppolo can’t go (and it’s looking doubtful that he will), then it will be rookie Trey Lance getting the start. Lance is a first round draft pick, so he’s not “chopped liver.” San Francisco SHOULD have beaten Tennessee last week; they led 10-0 at halftime and ended up outgaining the Titans 389-278 (not to mention 6.7 to 4.8 yards per play). Houston has won back to back games, but is still just 4-11 SU on the year and has the third worst point differential (-153) in the NFL. Let us not forget that two of the Texans’ four wins came against the Jaguars. Last week’s 41-29 upset of the Chargers was certainly shocking as the offense gained over 400 yards for the first time since Week 1. The Texans also benefited from three Chargers’ turnovers, one of which was an interception returned for a touchdown. The bottom line is that I still consider them to be one of the very worst teams in this league. This will actually be the first time under HC Kyle Shanahan that San Francisco is favored by more than 10 points. The team has generally struggled to cover as home chalk during Shanahan’s tenure, but there is no doubt in my mind that they will win this game and likely move on to the playoffs. Houston won’t be able to run the ball in this matchup, not just because they are last in the league in rushing offense, but also due to the fact the SF defense is #2 in the league at stopping the run. Meanwhile, the Niners get their leading rusher (Elijah Mitchell) back from injury this week. Lay the points. 8* San Francisco |
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01-02-22 | Eagles v. Washington Football Team +5 | Top | 20-16 | Win | 100 | 19 h 28 m | Show |
8* Washington (1:00 ET): This is the Football Team’s second crack at the Eagles in three weeks as they lost 27-17 in Philadelphia (on a Tuesday) back in Week 15. That game had to be moved because of COVID and while that’s still an issue in the Washington locker room, they will have some key players back on Sunday that missed the first meeting. Pro Bowl guard Scherff, safety Curl and top tackler Holcomb are all set to return. Most importantly, the team won’t have to rely on third string QB Garrett Gilbert this time. (Taylor Heinicke and Kyle Allen reportedly will both take snaps). Despite being so short-handed in that first meeting with the Eagles, Washington was still tied at halftime on the road. Now, in between games vs. the Eagles, it was obviously a horrible effort last Sunday night from the Football Team as they were lambasted 56-14 by Dallas. That loss is fresh on everyone’s mind, so I don’t expect a lot of people rushing to the window to bet Washington this week. However, it’s important to note that Philadelphia has some serious injury issues at the running back position with Miles Sanders and perhaps Jordan Howard out. That’s a big deal for an offense that leads the league in rushing. I know that these are teams trending in different directions, but Washington should be motivated after taking such an embarrassing loss in front of a national TV audience last week. Technically, they are still alive in the playoff race. I see value on them getting this many points. What’s interesting about the Eagles is that they were underdogs in each of their first seven games and have been favored (or a pick ‘em) in the last eight. Before the last three weeks, they’d never been favored by more than four points. 8* Washington |
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12-26-21 | Broncos +1 v. Raiders | Top | 13-17 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 40 m | Show |
10* Denver (4:25 ET): Point differential. That’s what this play essentially boils down to for me. Both teams are 7-7. But the Broncos have a +42 YTD point differential. The Raiders are -77. That’s quite the difference. When a team is .500, you’d expect their number of points scored and allowed to be pretty close to even. Yet that’s not the case with either of these teams. Denver should have a better record. Las Vegas should have a much worse record. I’m taking the better team. The Broncos also have revenge here for a 34-24 loss in Week 6. Total yardage was basically even in that game (424-421), but Denver was -4 in turnovers. If you’re a long-term follower of mine, then you know I’m a big believer in scoring differential being a strong indicator of future outcomes, not just in NFL but for all sports. Looking at the Raiders’ point differential, I won’t be the least bit surprised to see them lose all of their remaining games. They could barely beat a COVID-ravaged Cleveland team last Monday. In six of the last seven games, this Raiders’ offense has scored 16 points or less. I just don’t think Las Vegas is a very good football team! 10* Denver |
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12-26-21 | Jaguars +2 v. Jets | Top | 21-26 | Loss | -103 | 4 h 1 m | Show |
8* Jacksonville (1:00 ET): The Jaguars were actually a popular choice last week. They’d just fired the embarrassing Urban Meyer and were facing Houston. Unfortunately, it was “same old Jags” as they lost for a second time this season to the Texans, 30-16 as six-point chalk. I was one of those that made the mistake of taking Jacksonville in that spot. Call me stubborn, but I think *this* is now the week this struggling side “gets off the mat.” They are facing a Jets team that’s missing a lot of key personnel, including its head coach. The Jets have been just as miserable as the Jaguars this season. New York has one more win than Jacksonville, but also has a slightly worse YTD point differential. Last week saw the Jets suffer their third straight defeat, 31-24 at Miami. They’ve now been outscored by 178 points. The Jags have been outscored by 174. Those are the two worst point differentials in the sport. But the key is the Jets being without HC Robert Saleh as well as their three top receivers, a tight end and two guards. If the Jags, after a coaching change, can’t be the short-handed Jets, then I don’t know what to say. The Jets’ defense is the worst in the league by a pretty wide margin. It allows 30.6 points per game. So look for Jacksonville’s offense to score a season-high in points today. They have not scored more than 23 in any game all year. If they fail to score 24 against the Jets, they would be the first team since the 2010 Panthers to not score 24 points in their first 15 games of the season. The time is now for Jacksonville! 8* Jacksonville |
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12-26-21 | Rams -3 v. Vikings | Top | 30-23 | Win | 100 | 3 h 55 m | Show |
8* LA Rams (1:00 ET): The Rams are now in first place in the NFC West following last night’s loss by Arizona. In order to stay there, they must defeat Minnesota here. Given what the Rams have done each of the last two weeks, it would be foolish to bet against them. Two weeks ago, despite being severely short-handed because of COVID, they were able to go on the road and beat the Cardinals 30-23 in front of a national TV audience. Then came Tuesday’s 20-10 win over Seattle. Lay the points here. An outbreak that once included 29 players is now down to four for the Rams and none of those four that remain on the COVID list are starters. Look for the Rams offense to have a big passing day here against a Vikings defense that is allowing 252.1 yards per game through the air. Rams’ WR Cooper Kupp now has 10 straight games with at least 90 yards receiving. Sean McVay’s defense turned in a fine effort Tuesday night, holding Seattle to not just 10 points, but only 214 total yards. Minnesota is also on a short week here. They won 17-9 in Chicago on Monday, but it was not a good performance as the offense gained less than 200 yards and went 5 of 17 on third down. They were outgained by the Bears 370-193. The Vikings were quite lucky to recover three fumbles in the game. WR Adam Thielen will be back this week, but RB Dalvin Cook has been ruled out and that is potentially more significant. 8* LA Rams |
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12-26-21 | Bills +1 v. Patriots | Top | 33-21 | Win | 100 | 3 h 30 m | Show |
8* Buffalo (1:00 ET): First place in the AFC East is on the line Sunday in New England. The Patriots won the first meeting with the Bills, a famously windy affair where QB Mac Jones attempted only three passes. That win is the difference in the standings right now as New England enters this game at 9-5 while Buffalo is 8-6. But Mother Nature is not expected to play such a key role in today’s rematch and I think the better team (Buffalo) will rise to the top. The Bills are 15-8-1 ATS as an underdog and 18-9-1 ATS as an underdog with Josh Allen as the QB. They are 10-4-1 ATS as road underdogs. In the first meeting, Buffalo was the team more adversely affected by the windy conditions as it severely limited what they could do in the passing game. Red zone inefficiency also played a role in the 14-10 loss. Late in the game, the Bills missed a field goal and turned it over on downs. Expect Allen to be a lot more effective this time around, even without receiver Cole Beasley (who is on the COVID-19 list). The Bills have averaged 29 points in the two games since losing to New England. Remember that the Patriots lost last week, 27-17 at Indianapolis. They were actually underdogs. The loss snapped a seven-game SU/ATS win streak. With Tennessee’s win on Thursday, the Pats have fallen into third place in the AFC playoff picture. This is an important game for them too, obviously. But the offense hasn’t been putting up big numbers and the defense won’t be able to slow down the Bills for a second time. 8* Buffalo |
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12-25-21 | Colts v. Cardinals -1 | Top | 22-16 | Loss | -120 | 26 h 19 m | Show |
10* Arizona (8:00 ET): The Cardinals badly need to win this game. Not just because they’ve lost two straight and four of their last seven. The losing streak has resulted in them falling into a tie with Los Angeles for first place in the NFC West. Earlier in the year, when they were 7-0, the Cards had to figure they were a shoo-in for the top seed in the NFC. But now they are looking at possibly falling into a Wild Card spot as last week saw the “unthinkable” happen - a 30-12 loss in Detroit, a game that Arizona was favored to win by 13 points. The Cardinals’ opponents this week, Indianapolis, are trending in a much different direction. The Colts have won five of six, including a very impressive showing last Saturday (at home) vs. New England. But despite winning 27-17, QB Carson Wentz was abysmal against the Patriots, completing only 5 of 12 passes for 57 yards. The Colts were outgained in that game, not just on a per play basis, but also 365-275 overall. Interestingly enough, they are 0-5 ATS coming off a game where they had less than 150 passing yards. On Thursday night, we all saw how one team (Tennessee) that was seemingly trending in the wrong direction beat a hot team (San Francisco). I believe the same will hold true here. The Cardinals are still higher than the Colts in my power ratings. Factoring that in plus the home field, they should be a larger favorite in this spot. Obviously, they’re going to be motivated coming off their worst loss of the season. Meanwhile, Indy is off arguably its best win of the season and thus could be in store for a letdown. This is the first time Arizona has been off B2B losses this year. Indy is 3-9 ATS the L12 times it has been off B2B wins. 10* Arizona |
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12-21-21 | Seahawks v. Rams -6.5 | Top | 10-20 | Win | 100 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
8* LA Rams (7:00 ET): Coming off their biggest win of the season - last Monday’s 30-23 triumph at Arizona - the Rams were thrown into disarray with 25 players having to be put into COVID-19 protocol as of Thursday. That resulted in this game with the Seahawks being pushed back until Tuesday. While it may seem risky to still lay points with Los Angeles in this spot, they’ll still have QB Matthew Stafford on the field tonight and I simply feel they are still much better than the 5-8 Seahawks, whom they defeated 26-17 back in Week 5 on a Thursday night. I took the Rams then and will play them again in the rematch. Russell Wilson’s return to the Seattle lineup has resulted in B2B wins, 30-23 over San Francisco and 33-13 over Houston. But this is not a good Seahawks team. They rank dead last in the league in yards per game allowed, making it almost improbable that they somehow have allowed the fifth fewest points. The offense is 28th in the league in yards gained and Wilson may not have WR Tyler Lockett (COVID) available to throw to. While Seattle has put up 30+ points in B2B games, let’s not forget how pathetic the offense had looked (even with Wilson back) in the three prior games. The Rams’ offense is first in the league in yards per play (6.2), fourth in scoring (28.2 PPG) and has scored 28 or more in six of the last eight games. Other than TE Higbee, it looks like HC Sean McVay will have his full complement of players on that side of the ball. Remember the Rams were short-handed when they went into Arizona and won last week. I consider them one of the top teams in the league and they’ve covered 23 of the last 35 conference games. 8* LA Rams |
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12-20-21 | Raiders v. Browns -3 | Top | 16-14 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 4 m | Show |
10* Cleveland (5:00 ET): This game was originally scheduled for Saturday, but a COVID-19 outbreak within the Browns organization pushed it back 48 hours. There are obviously some key players missing for Cleveland, not to mention HC Kevin Stefanski, but I still see them beating Las Vegas at home. Both these teams are desperate for a win to remain relevant in the AFC playoff hunt, but I’ve got little faith in a Raiders team that has been outscored by 77 points this year, the 4th worst differential in the conference. Lay the points. Las Vegas is coming off an ugly 48-9 loss to Kansas City, which was the second time in four weeks they got blown out by the Chiefs. Those two losses obviously had a major impact on the aforementioned point differential, but the Silver and Black have also dropped five of their last six overall. The only win came on Thanksgiving Day, in overtime, against the Cowboys. That win was the only time in the last six games that the offense was able to score more than 16 points. In more than half their games this season, the Raiders have been held to 16 or less. Third stringer Nick Mullens is likely to be the Browns’ starting QB in this one. From 2018-20, Mullens made 16 starts for the 49ers, so he’s not “new to this.” I don’t think that the Cleveland offense is going to need to put up many points here. The Browns’ defense has allowed 16 points or less in over half of its games this season and held the Ravens out of the end zone for three quarters last week. I already mentioned the Raiders’ offensive woes. Obviously, all the absences must be accounted for, but with the game being pushed back hopefully some of those Browns players that tested positive can return. I’m not a huge Baker Mayfield fan to begin with, so I don’t think he’ll be all that missed. 10* Cleveland |
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12-19-21 | Packers v. Ravens +7 | Top | 31-30 | Win | 100 | 8 h 9 m | Show |
10* Baltimore (4:25 ET): It is looking like a near certainty that Tyler Huntley will be the starting QB here for the Ravens. Lamar Jackson suffered a sprained ankle in last week’s 24-22 loss to the Browns and hasn’t practiced all week. While the loss of Jackson may make Baltimore a “less attractive option” in the minds of many bettors, I am seeing value here on the Ravens as a home dog. Huntley very nearly led his team back from a 24-6 halftime deficit last week. He also guided a 16-13 win at Chicago earlier in the season. Take the points! Now Green Bay is the top ATS team in the league. They’ve covered 11 of 13 games this year, including a come from behind effort last week against Chicago. Things were not looking good for Packers’ bettors early on last Sunday night as the team trailed at halftime. But they stormed back to win 45-30 and improbably cover the double digit spread. That was at Lambeau though. All three Packers’ losses this season have come on the road - where their scoring average dips to 20.6 PPG. Now GB’s road numbers are a little skewed due to a Week 1 loss to the Saints (an outlier performance) and the game they played at Kansas City without Aaron Rodgers. That being said, this is too many points for them to be laying here. This line is a classic overreaction to Jackson’s absence. Jackson is a great player, but the Ravens also have a great defense and special teams. John Harbaugh is 9-3 ATS his L12 games as a home underdog with eight outright wins. Baltimore is also 3-0 ATS as ‘dogs this season. Almost all of their games end up close with five of the last six decided by six points or less. Only two teams in history have ever started a NFL season 12-2 ATS. 10* Baltimore |
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12-19-21 | Texans v. Jaguars -4.5 | Top | 30-16 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 44 m | Show |
9* Jacksonville (1:00 ET): Urban Meyer’s firing had an interesting effect on this number as the Jaguars are now bigger favorites to beat the Texans without their disgraced former head coach. My view is that the Jags are going to come out highly motivated to win this game. Certainly they can’t be any worse than they were under Meyer, whose NFL coaching career will end with a 2-11 WL record. For this first game without Meyer, the Jags probably couldn’t have asked for a more ideal opponent. I’m laying the points! There are two teams that I have rated lower than Jacksonville in my own personal power ratings. One of them is the opponent here (the other is the Jets). Houston has a worse point differential than Jacksonville and the same 2-11 SU record. David Culley just feels like a lame-duck coach this season for the Texans, who are down to Davis Mills at QB. The team is 0-7 SU with Mills as the starter after losing 33-13 last week at home to Seattle. The Texans actually struck first in that game and then were thoroughly dominated after that. This is a revenge spot for Jacksonville, who lost 37-21 in Houston back in Week 1. It was their seventh straight loss to the Texans, which is quite embarrassing. It’s interesting to note that the Jaguars were favored in the Week 1 matchup. While that proved to be a “bad line,” it looks like we’re getting a bargain on them at home here. Houston has won just once since Week 1. You’ve got to believe the Jaguars’ players will want to win for interim HC Darrell Bevell to prove a point that they are better without Meyer. From the revenge angle to the new coach, lots of motivation here for the home side. 9* Jacksonville |
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12-18-21 | Patriots v. Colts -2 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
10* Indianapolis (8:20 ET): Two of the hottest teams in football meet Saturday night and both are coming off byes. I don’t think there’s any denying that the Colts are better than their 7-6 SU overall record. The team ranks seventh in the league in point differential, having outscored the opposition by 88 points. Now I am well aware that New England is not only #1 in the league in that department (+150 point differential), but is also on a 7-0 SU/ATS win streak. But the Colts have been a favorite of “sharp bettors” all season and this is a case where it’s right to fade what is likely to be a very “public dog” (that being the Patriots). Remember that Indianapolis started the year at 0-3 SU. Since then, they’ve gone 7-3 with two of the losses coming in overtime (both after blowing big leads) and the other coming by only seven points to the Super Bowl Champion Buccaneers. Still fresh in everyone’s mind is New England’s win at Buffalo two weeks ago where QB Mac Jones only attempted three passes due to insanely windy conditions. But don’t forget that the Colts went to Buffalo a few weeks ago and absolutely trounced the Bills, 41-15 (as a seven-point underdog). As good as the Patriots have looked over the last two months, you’ve got to figure they are “due” to drop at least one game down the stretch. Looking at the remaining four games, this and next week’s home date with Buffalo are easily the two toughest matchups Bill Belichick’s team has left. New England is 6-0 SU on the road this year, but three of those wins came by four points or less. This game means A LOT more to the Colts, who trail the Titans by two games in the AFC South and really cannot afford another loss. The last time we saw them, they beat the Texans 31-0 and allowed only 141 total yards. The Texans are admittedly a horrible team, but a Colts offense (led by RB Taylor) that has struck for 30 or more points in seven of the last eight games will test this Patriots’ defense. 10* Indianapolis |
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12-16-21 | Chiefs v. Chargers +3 | Top | 34-28 | Loss | -101 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
10* LA Chargers (8:20 ET): A win tonight would give the Chargers a season sweep of the Chiefs and thus a “leg up” in the race for the division title. A Chargers win would also mean both teams are 9-5 SU. So you can see how important this one is. Either LA falls two games back with a split of the season series, or they are even with a season sweep. I know that the Chiefs - 6-0 SU L6 games and 4-0 ATS L4 - have been playing well of late. But so have the Chargers, who have scored 37 or more points in three of the last four games. Those offensive numbers will certainly be tested tonight by a Chiefs defense that has allowed exactly nine points in three consecutive games. But KC has not exactly been facing the top offensive teams during this stretch. Twice they’ve beaten the Raiders and other wins came against the Broncos, Giants and Rodgers-less Packers. Holding Dallas to just nine points WAS impressive. But I can’t see a similar defensive effort taking place against these Chargers, which has Justin Herbert and two receivers that will go over 1,000 yards this season. The Chiefs are surprisingly still being outgained this season on a per play basis. While it was back in Week 3 and Kansas City turned it over four times, the Chargers scored 30 in the first meeting and that was when they weren’t playing as well. The Chargers’ last three wins have been by an average of 13 PPG, but even that’s misleading as they led by as many as 17, 24 and 30 in those respective games. LA is 4-1 ATS its L5 games as a dog. 10* LA Chargers |
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12-12-21 | Bears +12 v. Packers | Top | 30-45 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 35 m | Show |
9* Chicago (8:20 ET): Going total contrarian on this one as Green Bay is the first double digit favorite in a Sunday Night game this season. It’s somewhat rare to see a DD fave in these primetime matchups, at least on SNF where it’s happened only eight times the previous decade. Those eight favorites went just 2-6 ATS. As bad as the Bears have looked this season, I can’t help but think this is an inflated number. At least Justin Fields is back at QB. Yes, I’m taking the points here. There’s always a sense of “pride” in these division games and I don’t see Chicago just “rolling over” in this one. Aaron Rodgers was not afraid to make his feelings known in the last meeting between these teams. “I own you” is what Rodgers told the Soldier Field faithful following a 24-14 win back in Week 6. First off, note that win was “only” by 10 points (less than the spread here). Secondly, might Rodgers’ comments come back to bite him? You’ve got to think the Bears will at least be motivated after being disrespected like that. Total yardage and first downs were actually pretty close in Chicago back October 17th. The Bears have just one win since losing to the Packers two months ago, but last week they actually outgained Arizona only to be undone by four turnovers. They also finished with a 26-14 edge in first downs! Fields definitely has a higher ceiling than “turnover machine” Andy Dalton. The Packers may be 10-2 ATS overall (including 5-0 at Lambeau), but they are due to drop a game at the betting window. 9* Chicago |
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12-12-21 | Giants +10 v. Chargers | Top | 21-37 | Loss | -122 | 18 h 41 m | Show |
8* NY Giants (4:05 ET): A change in playcallers has failed to provide any kind of spark for the struggling Giants’ offense - at least so far. Freddie Kitchens replaced Jason Garrett as the new OC two weeks ago, but the G-Men have scored a grand total of 22 points (including just one TD) since the change. They were held to season lows in points, total yards and time of possession last week against Miami. It doesn’t help that Daniel Jones is out because of a neck injury. But I think New York may surprise you this week, even with backup Mike Glennon at QB. This team has typically been reliable in the role of underdog. Take the points. The Chargers are off an impressive 41-22 win at Cincinnati, but they strike me as the kind of team that should never be laying this many points. Note that they nearly blew all of a 24-0 lead last week before pulling away late. Prior to that, the team had covered just one of five games with the two SU wins coming by three and four points. QB Justin Herbert will be without his top receiver this week as Keenan Allen has landed on the COVID-19 list. Coming off the surprisingly big win over the Bengals and with a huge division showdown vs. the Chiefs on deck, this is a tricky spot for Los Angeles. The Giants, as alluded to above, have done well in the past as a road underdog. They are 9-4 ATS in that role under HC Joe Judge and 19-7 ATS L26 going back further than that. The Chargers aren’t just 1-4 ATS L5 as favorites; they’ve never been more than a 6.5-point favorite in any game this season. They’ve got the worst homefield advantage in the league and are 5-13-1 ATS L19 as home chalk. LA’s YTD point differential is still negative while the Giants are outscored by only 5.2 PPG. I think the Giants’ offense can find success here as the Chargers’ D still ranks 31st against the run and 31st on third downs. 8* NY Giants |
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12-12-21 | Falcons v. Panthers -2.5 | Top | 29-21 | Loss | -113 | 15 h 23 m | Show |
10* Carolina (1:00 ET): The Panthers’ 3-0 SU/ATS start is now a distant memory as they are 5-7 SU/ATS coming out of the bye. This is a team that’s finished with just five wins each of the last two seasons. If they want to beat that number in 2021, this might be their last chance to do so. That’s because the final four weeks of the season will see Carolina face Buffalo, Tampa Bay twice and New Orleans. Three of those games are on the road. Given that upcoming schedule and the fact that (now former) OC Joe Brady was dismissed during the bye week, I’m expecting an “inspired effort” here from the Panthers. Atlanta may have the same 5-7 SU record as Carolina, but I’d argue the Falcons are a significantly worse football team. Point differential certainly paints that picture as Atlanta has been outscored this season by 116 points. Carolina is only -17 in point differential. While the Panthers are fresh off a bye, the Falcons are playing for an eighth straight week. Last week marked the Dirty Birds’ fifth double digit loss of the season. This team is actually ranked dead last in the league in DVOA and struggles in all three phases of the game. The bottom line is that my power ratings say Carolina should be laying closer to SIX points on Sunday. I took the Panthers in the first meeting of the season, which they won 19-13 in Atlanta as 2.5-point dogs. They ended up outgaining the Falcons 332-213 thanks to a substantial edge in the ground game. Carolina ran for 200+ yards that day. While they no longer have RB Christian McCaffery (out for year) at their disposal, that’s okay. McCaffery didn’t play in that first matchup either. It was Chubba Hubbard leading the way. From Weeks 4-8, Hubbard was second in the NFL in rush attempts and ninth in yards. The Panthers also now have Cam Newton playing QB. The Falcons’ offense doesn’t run the ball well and the Panthers are fifth in the league in pass defense. Specifically, they’re very good at defending tight ends, so I’d expect Kyle Pitts (two catches, 13 yards in 1st meeting) to not have a big day. Lay the short number. 10* Carolina |
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12-12-21 | Seahawks v. Texans +9 | Top | 33-13 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 3 m | Show |
8* Houston (1:00 ET): I understand that few, if any, want to touch the Texans right now, let alone when they have Davis Mills quarterbacking. But are we really convinced that Seattle should be laying this many points on the road, against anyone? I guess this will be the test. The Seahawks are off a 30-23 win over San Francisco last week as 2.5-point dogs. But that was at home and they were aided by both a 73-yard TD on a fake punt and a safety. The Seahawks are 2-0 vs. the 49ers this year, but 2-8 SU against the rest of their schedule. Last week was just their second win since Week 4. I’m taking the points. Just how odd is it to see a 4-8 SU team favored by seven or more on the road? Well, per ESPN Stats & Info, Seattle is the first team since 1966 with a win percentage of .333 or worse to be laying seven or more on the road in the month of December! Also, keep in mind the fact that the Seahawks are just 1-4 ATS their last five tries as a favorite and have also lost outright four times. They are 1-7 ATS in their L8 games as a road favorite going back to last year. I’m not going to look you in the eye and tell you that Mills is good. But he’s no worse than Tyrod Taylor has been at QB for Houston. Before getting steamrolled 31-0 by a good Colts team last week, the Texans previous three games had all been decided by single digits. They beat the Titans 22-13 on the road. The two losses were by seven and eight points. Just “hold your nose” and take the points here as I don’t think a defense that gives up nearly 400 YPG and just lost Jamal Adams for the season should be laying this many points. 8* Houston |
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12-09-21 | Steelers v. Vikings -3 | Top | 28-36 | Win | 100 | 29 h 23 m | Show |
8* Minnesota (8:20 ET): Despite what the records may say, I believe the Vikings are a better football team than the Steelers. Minnesota may be 5-7 SU, but (unlike the Steelers) they can actually claim a POSITIVE YTD point differential, albeit a small one (at +3). The Vikes’ seven losses have all been by eight points or fewer. Four have been decided on the final play of the game, including a pair of OT losses. Last week may have been the new nadir as the Vikes fell 29-27 to the previously winless Lions. That was a game where Mike Zimmer’s team was favored by a TD on the road, had a 426-372 edge in total yards and took the lead with just under two minutes to go. The defense simply could not get the last stop that Zimmer needed. So, at this point, I’m pretty much willing to “dig my heels in” and let it be known that I don’t think Pittsburgh is a very good team. Sure, they beat the Ravens last week to move to 6-5-1 on the year. But the Steelers have been outscored this season by 42 points. They are the only team in the NFL to have a winning record and negative point differential. While a bulk of that negative point differential stems from a 41-10 loss to the Bengals two weeks ago, it’s also true that the Steelers do not have a single victory this season by more than eight points. Their six victories have been by a total of 26 points. Bottom line: I do NOT believe this team is going to make the playoffs. I want to play against them here. The defense may have let them down last week, but the Vikings are a lot stingier here at home. A lot stingier, in fact. On the road, Minnesota allows 29.2 PPG. That’s second most in the NFL. But at home, they allow only 19.8 PPG, which is in the top 10. It’s that defensive improvement that allows me to look past the potential absences of WR Adam Thielein and RB Dalvin Cook on Thursday. The Steelers’ offense, which averages only 20.3 PPG and has an aging Ben Roethlisberger at QB, isn’t very good. And the last two times the Steelers have gone on the road, their defense has surrendered 41 points in both games! The Vikings moved the ball fine w/o Thielen and Cook last week. My power ratings do say that the Vikings are the better team here. So they probably should be laying more than a field goal. But with all but one of their games having been decided by eight points or less, I feel more comfortable simply playing them on the money line. They WILL win this game. 8* Minnesota (MONEY LINE) |
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12-06-21 | Patriots v. Bills -2.5 | Top | 14-10 | Loss | -122 | 10 h 38 m | Show |
10* Buffalo (8:20 ET): After a weak Sunday slate, we’ve certainly got something to “sink our teeth into” here as New England faces Buffalo on Monday Night Football. These are the two top teams in my own personal power rankings. Winners of six straight (SU and ATS), the Patriots are the hottest team in the league right now. Last time we saw them, they blew out the Titans 36-13. That was their third straight win by 23+ points. But it would be unwise to disregard what the Bills have done this season. They were the Super Bowl favorite not even a month ago. I’m going to lay the short number in this one. What’s hurt the perception of Buffalo over the last month is two confounding losses. One was at Jacksonville, by a score of 9-6, and I still have no explanation for what happened there. A 41-15 loss to the Colts two weeks ago was easier to explain as the Bills were -4 in turnovers in that game. Despite losing by 26, they actually had a slight edge in yards per play. It was a strong bounce back game Thanksgiving Night against New Orleans as the Bills went on the road and won 31-6 as 6.5-point road favorites. With 10 days between games, I expect the Bills to be sharp on their home field tonight. You’ve got to respect New England’s 5-0 SU road record. However, they’ve gone off as the favorite in four of those five games. So you can’t be too surprised by their success. The only time they haven’t been favored on the road was against the Chargers, who have the worst home field advantage in the league. The other four road wins were against the Jets, Texans, Panthers and Falcons. Buffalo’s defense, which is #1 in total yards allowed, should make Mac Jones “look like a rookie” tonight in what amounts to a statement game for the reigning AFC East Champs. New England is “due” to lose here. 10* Buffalo |
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12-05-21 | Broncos +10 v. Chiefs | Top | 9-22 | Loss | -116 | 29 h 40 m | Show |
9* Denver (8:20 ET): I think that this spread is way too high given these two AFC West teams have nearly identical YTD point differentials. Denver has outscored their opponents by 32 points this season while Kansas City is +31. I took the Broncos last week and as a slight home dog they delivered an impressive outright win, 28-13 over the Chargers. That has them at 6-5, tied with the Chargers and Raiders for second place in the division, one game behind the first place Chiefs. I’m taking the points here. Chiefs HC Andy Reid has been profitable in his career when off a bye, but he’s just 1-3 ATS the L4 times in that situation. Going back to last year, Kansas City has been a disaster at the betting window, going just 6-19 ATS the L25 games. Prior to the bye, the Chiefs did beat the Raiders 41-14 and the Cowboys 19-9. But those were two of their biggest wins all season. Before that, they had just two double digit wins and both came on the road against NFC East teams. At home, the Chiefs are just 1-5 ATS this season and averaging only 21.5 PPG. Believe it or not, this will be just the fourth time this year that Denver is an underdog. I already mentioned cashing in on them last week at home vs. the Chargers. But I also had them +10 in Dallas back on November 7th when they won outright 30-16. This is a huge game for the Broncos as they’ve lost 11 straight times to the Chiefs, many of them blowouts. They aren’t looking to get blown out on national TV. A defense that allows the league’s fewest number of trips into the red zone should - at the very least - help the Broncos stay within the number. 9* Denver |
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12-05-21 | Cardinals v. Bears +7.5 | Top | 33-22 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 21 m | Show |
8* Chicago (1:00 ET): While I’m not going so far as to predict a Bears outright victory here, I do believe they can keep the game close at home. They’re coming off a “mini-bye” as Monsters of the Midway last played on Thanksgiving when they defeated Detroit 16-14 as three-point favorites. They may not have covered the spread, but HC Matt Nagy (on the hot seat) will gladly take the SU win as it snapped a five-game losing skid. The Bears’ last three games have been decided by a total of seven points. Arizona is a perfect 6-0 SU and ATS on the road. Winning every road game is tough enough. Covering them all is very rare. The 9-2 Cardinals are coming off their bye, but QB Kyler Murray remains a “gametime decision” as the team looks to be cautious given Murray’s injury history. They probably think they don’t need him to beat the Bears, especially after backup Colt McCoy led a 23-13 “upset” in Seattle two weeks ago. The Cards are actually 2-1 with McCoy as the starter. My view is that if Murray does play, we’re going to get a better number. So you may want to wait closer to kickoff to bet this one. Andy Dalton will start for the Bears. Not inspiring, but he threw for 317 yards last week. It was the first 300+ yard day by a Bears QB since Nick Foles last season. Also, RB David Montgomery is back. Look for edge-rusher Robert Quinn to pressure whomever Arizona’s QB ends up being. I just can’t see the Cardinals winning a seventh straight road game by double digits. Only two other teams (in NFL HISTORY) have done it six times. In addition to Murray, WR DeAndre Hopkins is also a game-time decision. Hold your nose and take the points in this one. 8* Chicago |
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12-05-21 | Chargers v. Bengals -3 | Top | 41-22 | Loss | -104 | 21 h 21 m | Show |
10* Cincinnati (1:00 ET): With the Bengals favored by only three points at home, oddsmakers are essentially saying they see these teams as “even” on a neutral field. I have a different view. After B2B impressive wins (over the Raiders and Steelers), Cincinnati has a +83 YTD point differential. That’s third best in the AFC, trailing only the Patriots and Bills. Don’t forget the Bengals also blew out the Ravens, 41-17 back in Week 7. That’s a Ravens team that blew out the Chargers 34-6 the week prior. Los Angeles, despite being 6-5 SU, comes into this game with a -20 YTD point differential. I chose to fade the Chargers last week and that ended up being a wise decision. They went to Denver as 2.5-point favorites and lost outright 28-13. Despite outgaining the Broncos, LA never led and trailed most of the way by double digits. More bad news is the fact this just isn’t the Chargers “time of year.” In Weeks 10 through 13, they are 2-8 SU and 0-10 ATS. It gets worse as they are also 1-7 SU/ATS coming off a division loss. The fact that this team has been outscored tells me they aren’t as good as their record. The defense really struggles to stop the run (164 YPG allowed on the road) and has given up an average of 31.3 PPG the L7 weeks. You can look for the Bengals’ offense, which has scored 31+ points in five of its last six games, to take advantage of that suspect Chargers’ defense. Also note that this is an early start for the road team (10 AM West Coast time), which is a disadvantage. The last time the Chargers played a 1 PM ET game was … the blowout loss to Baltimore. They are averaging only 19.2 PPG on the road. That just won’t cut it against a Bengals team that is one of the most improved in the league this year. The Cincinnati defense has allowed just 23 points in the L2 games. 10* Cincinnati |
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11-28-21 | Browns +3.5 v. Ravens | Top | 10-16 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 52 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (8:20 ET): The Browns were 0-7 ATS in division games under HC Kevin Stefanski, but then they blew out Cincinnati, 41-16 (as 1-pt road dogs) three weeks ago. That was another game where the sharp money was seemingly on them, despite being off less than a stellar performance. Before beating the Bengals, the Browns had lost 15-10 to the Steelers. Here they are off a win, albeit an unimpressive one, 13-10 (as 13.5 point chalk) over the winless Lions. I think Cleveland will surprise you in this spot. Baltimore has been a pretty lucky team this season. They are 7-3 SU and lead the AFC North, but that’s thanks in no small part to a 5-1 SU record in one-score games. There have been four games decided by three points or less and the Ravens have won all them. The latest was last week, 16-13 over Chicago, where the Ravens were outgained 353-299. I know there was no Lamar Jackson in that game, but the Ravens very nearly lost. It was the FOURTH time this year they got the go-ahead score in the final minute. Twice this year they’ve come back from a double digit deficit to win in overtime. Cleveland was leading 13-0 last week at the half. The offense did nothing in the second half as QB Baker Mayfield isn’t 100% and continues to struggle. But the only real mistake made by the Browns’ defense last week was giving up one long TD run. The Lions’ FG came after a 9-yard drive. Cleveland is healthy again at RB, which is the key to their offensive success. The Browns’ defense has allowed 16 points or less in six different games this season, including four of the last five. Baltimore is only 2-6 ATS as a favorite thus far. Take the points. 8* Cleveland |
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11-28-21 | Rams -1 v. Packers | Top | 28-36 | Loss | -119 | 22 h 57 m | Show |
10* LA Rams (4:25 ET): This line has certainly shifted during the week, but I think the line move is warranted. The game might be in Lambeau Field (where it will be cold), but the Rams have had two weeks to prepare for this game after heading into the bye on a two-game losing streak. Due to COVID and a toe injury, Packers’ QB Aaron Rodgers has not been able to practice regularly the last three weeks. I believe the Rams are the better team here and think they’ll show it on Sunday. I faded Green Bay last week. Despite them playing nearly flawlessly, I came away with a winning ticket as the Vikings pulled a 34-31 upset, thanks to a GW field goal as time expired. That snapped what had been a record-setting 9-game ATS win streak for the Packers. My view is they are still due to “give some back.” I say this based on the fact they only have a +33 point differential, despite their 8-3 SU record. I just don’t think the Pack are as good as their record would seem to indicate. This is also a big-time revenge game for the Rams, who are 0-7 ATS the L7 meetings with the Packers, including a playoff loss last January. Green Bay has won six of those previous seven meetings outright. But the Rams are not only rested this time, but have also upgraded their roster with the additions of Von Miller and Odell Beckham Jr. Green Bay is dealing with some injuries along the offensive line and could struggle to protect Rodgers in this matchup. Having not had their bye yet (comes next week), the Packers could be somewhat gassed, especially compared to a rested opponent. 10* LA Rams |
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11-28-21 | Chargers v. Broncos +3 | Top | 13-28 | Win | 100 | 22 h 36 m | Show |
9* Denver (4:05 ET): It seems as if every Chargers’ game ends up close these days. Five of the last six have been decided by seven points or less and they’ve won three of those. The Chargers’ history in closely-contested affairs is not good, so it’s a bit of a surprise to see them 5-3 in one-score games this year. Despite being 6-4 SU overall, the Chargers have a -5 point differential. I know that last week’s 41-37 win over Pittsburgh should NOT have ended up so close, but still I think it’s dicey to trust Brandon Staley’s team laying points on the division road. Despite being a game behind LA in the AFC West standings, Denver actually has a better YTD point differential (+17). Considering that and that they both at home and off a bye, the Broncos should be favored here. After not being favored in a single game last season (only team in the league that could say that), Denver was actually favored in its first six games of 2021. They’ve only been an underdog in two games this season. Meanwhile, the Chargers are 0-3 ATS their last three games as a favorite. The Broncos are also 9-2 ATS off a bye, including 2-0 under HC Vic Fangio. The home team already had a decided edge defensively. They allow only 18.3 PPG. The Chargers allow 26.5 PPG and rank 32nd (i.e. last) against the run. Now Bradley Chubb has been activated and is expected to play Sunday. That should bolster Denver’s pass rush and keep the pressure on Chargers’ QB Justin Herbert. Also, as we saw again last week vs. Pittsburgh - when they had a punt blocked - LA’s special teams continue to be a major liability. Take the points. 9* Denver |
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11-28-21 | Titans +7.5 v. Patriots | Top | 13-36 | Loss | -125 | 19 h 32 m | Show |
8* Tennessee (1:00 ET): The Titans are off a shocking loss where they outgained the Texans 420-190. But they were also -5 in turnover differential and that’s the primary reason they lost 22-13 as 10-point favorites. That and they are a banged up football team right now. But Tennessee still has the best WL record in the AFC right now (8-3 SU) and I think they can stay within the number this week, despite playing the new hottest team in the NFL. The Titans are a perfect 5-0 ATS as an underdog this season, also winning outright all five times! Not saying they’ll win outright again here, but take the points. The Patriots seem to be the new “toast of the town” right now as they’ve won five in a row, four of those victories coming by 18 or more points. Bill Belichick’s team entered Thanksgiving with the top point differential in the league at +123. (Have since been passed in the department by Buffalo). The league’s top scoring defense (16.1 PPG allowed) has been key, but so has being +9 in turnover differential during the win streak. The Pats have also covered five in a row, so between that and the Titans’ record as a dog, something will have to give Sunday. My thinking is the Pats are EXTREMELY popular right now and it’s probably a good time to fade. This line has really risen during the week. New England is off the “mini-bye,” after playing last Thursday. They shut the Falcons out 25-0 last time we saw them. But if you think the extended rest is a good thing for the Patriots, then think again as they are 0-6 ATS the L6 times they’ve been off extra rest. Tennessee isn’t just perfect as a dog, they are also 4-1 ATS on the road. HC Mike Vrabel is 2-0 SU/ATS vs. Belichick, whom he previously served under. I think the Titans’ loss last week was HIGHLY misleading (given the total yardage discrepancy) while at the same time wanting to “sell high” on the Pats. 8* Tennessee |
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11-25-21 | Bills v. Saints +6.5 | Top | 31-6 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 4 m | Show |
8* New Orleans (8:20 ET): For the first time since 2016, the Saints have lost three in a row. Now if you are a regular client of mine, that shouldn’t surprise you. I said to fade New Orleans last week and that turned out to be a good bet as they lost 40-29 to the Eagles. Really, things weren’t even as close as that final score makes it seem. The Saints fell behind 33-7 after three quarters and were clearly outclassed from the get-go. But I should mention how turnovers played a key role in that outcome. The Saints had three of them, one of which was an INT that was returned for a TD. They actually outgained the Eagles, slightly, on a per play basis for the game. The key for Philly was having three scoring drives (besides the pick-six) begin in Saints’ territory. What I’m saying is - don’t write off New Orleans just yet. Especially not here at home. Last week marked the first time in five games this season that they did NOT cover as an underdog. They’d won three of the previous four outright. Of course, last week’s game was on the road. I remind you of that because the Saints are 8-2 ATS their L10 games as a home underdog. They are also the only team in the league to alternate ATS wins and losses all season. If that trend holds here, that means they’ll cover the spread. Going back to last season, New Orleans is 6-0 ATS off its previous six ATS losses. Buffalo is just 1-3-1 ATS its last five games, including an embarrassing outright loss to Jacksonville a few weeks ago. As embarrassing as that defeat to the Jags was, last week’s 41-15 thrashing at the hands of the Colts may have been their nadir. While the Bills still are near the top of my power ratings, I think they’re laying too many points in this Thanksgiving night matchup. The spread should be under a FG, so I think there’s value here on the home dog, who has seen three of its five losses come by six points or fewer. 8* New Orleans |
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11-21-21 | Cardinals v. Seahawks +2 | Top | 23-13 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 30 m | Show |
9* Seattle (4:25 ET): The return of Russell Wilson last week produced a shocking result as the Seahawks were shut out for the 1st time since 2011, which predates Wilson’s tenure here in the Pacific Northwest. The 17-0 loss to the Packers leaves Seattle at 3-6 SU and in last place in the NFC West. This week feels like a “watershed” game for the team as another loss would essentially sink their season. But a win would certainly keep them viable in the playoff hunt. Given that the Seahawks are 15-7 ATS as a home dog under HC Pete Carroll, including 6-3 with Wilson as the starter, I’m taking the points here. Now I know that Arizona is 5-0 SU/ATS on the road this season and covered the spread in five of their last six visits to Seattle. But this week marks the first time since 2011 (again the year before Wilson arrived) that the Cardinals are favored here. The big story here is whether or not QB Kyler Murray (game-time decision) will play. Murray has missed the L2 games and backup Colt McCoy (will start if Murray can’t go) got injured last week in a 34-10 loss to Carolina. We know that WR DeAndre Hopkins is out Sunday. So the bottom line is that Arizona’s offense will NOT be at full strength, no matter what. Whether or not Murray ends up playing here is irrelevant to the selection. Coming back from a sprained ankle will limit his mobility, if he does play. If Murray is out, then I certainly don’t fear a banged up McCoy, who threw for only 107 yards last week. Given that Arizona’s bye is next week, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them hold Murray out. While Seattle was blanked last week, note that Wilson threw TWO interceptions in the end zone. He’s had a week to “shake off” the rust and I expect a big game from the Seahawks QB in this one. The Seahawks have three losses by a total of nine points, so their record could be much better. The Cardinals have dropped two of three following a 7-0 SU start. I can’t see them winning all their road games this season. 9* Seattle |
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11-21-21 | Packers v. Vikings +1.5 | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 39 h 44 m | Show |
10* Minnesota (1:00 ET): The Vikings finally stepped up and delivered a big-time performance last week, going to LA and defeating the Chargers 27-20 as three-point underdogs. Now 4-5 SU on the year, they seek to win B2B games for just the second time. Eight of their nine games have been decided by one score, including three in overtime and four by three points or less. So their won-loss record could easily be better. They have a positive point differential (+10) for the season. I believe this team is MUCH better than its record and is set to pull an “upset” over the division leading Packers on Sunday. Green Bay did it again last week, covering the spread for a ninth consecutive game as they defeated Seattle 17-0. The Packers’ current 9-0 ATS win streak is a franchise record and the third longest in history! Last week marked the return of Aaron Rodgers after he missed the loss to the Chiefs (GB’s only SU loss in the L9 games), but the former MVP has barely had any practice time the L2 weeks, not just because of COVID, but also due to a toe injury. Not that Rodgers needs a ton of practice time at this stage of his career, but here he’s facing a defense that is traditionally very good at home under Mike Zimmer. Minnesota allows 28.6 PPG on the road. But at home, they allow just 17.0 PPG. That’s a big difference. This week, it looks like they might get back both S Harrison Smith and CB Patrick Peterson, which would bring their secondary back to full health. Rodgers may be the QB that gets all the headlines in this matchup, but the Vikings’ Kirk Cousins is the one who actually leads the NFL in QB-INT ratio. Minnesota should probably be coming into this game on a five-game win streak (Dallas & Baltimore losses were both BRUTAL). This is a HUGE game for the Vikings to stay in the NFC North race and they are 19-6-1 ATS L26 as home dogs. 10* Minnesota |
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11-21-21 | 49ers v. Jaguars +6.5 | Top | 30-10 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 6 m | Show |
8* Jacksonville (1:00 ET): While the Jaguars are far from my favorite team to endorse, I think this is a GREAT spot to fade the 49ers, who are on a short week and laying a big number on the road after upsetting the Rams Monday night. I took San Francisco on MNF and even I was shocked by the ease with which they won. It was 31-10, the team’s first home win in MORE THAN A YEAR. But despite the lopsided nature of the final score, yardage was pretty even - both for the game and on a per play basis. The big key was the Niners forcing two turnovers, one of which was a “pick six.” Really, you could make the case the Niners forced FOUR turnovers. There were two more Rams drives which ended inside the SF 20-yard line and did not result in any points. One saw the Rams attempt a fake field goal, which did not work. Another time they simply turned it over on downs. What I’m saying here is that we should temper our enthusiasm on the Niners somewhat. This is a team that had previously dropped five of six with the lone win coming against Chicago. Something else worth noting is just how poor the Niners have been as a favorite under Kyle Shanahan, going just 9-21-2 ATS. That includes 2-10 ATS L12 with NINE outright losses. This is the most points they’ve had to lay on the road this season. Jacksonville’s defense has only given up 29 points (total) the L2 games as they have covered the spread against both Buffalo and Indianapolis, two good teams. In fact, the Jaguars stunned the Bills two weeks ago here at home, 9-6 as two-touchdown underdogs. I mentioned earlier that SF just ended a long losing streak at home. Well, now the Jags look to end a 13-game losing streak vs. the NFC, which dates back three seasons. Not sure if they can end it, but take the points as I expect this to be a close game throughout. The 49ers are not as good as they “looked” Monday night. 8* Jacksonville |
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11-21-21 | Saints v. Eagles -1.5 | Top | 29-40 | Win | 100 | 29 h 5 m | Show |
8* Philadelphia (1:00 ET): I think the Eagles have proven themselves to be better than their 4-6 SU record. Not only do they sport a positive point differential on the season (+26) but they’ve also outgained opponents on a per play basis. Last week saw the Eagles go to Denver and win very convincingly, 30-13 (line closed as a pick ‘em). But one thing that the team has failed to do this year is win at home! They are 0-4 SU at Lincoln Financial Field. The only other teams not to win a home game in 2021 are the Lions (obviously) and the odious Falcons. I think it’s about time Philly gets 1st year HC Nick Sirianni a win. Lay the short number here. New Orleans is a team that impressed me early on this season, but they seem to be on a downward trajectory. They are 0-2 SU in November with both losses coming by two points. But don’t let last week’s 23-21 score against Tennessee fool you. It was a late TD that got them the cover. A failed two-point try ensured there would be no OT. While only losing by two points to the hottest team in the league may not sound all that bad to you, what about losing at home to Atlanta? That’s what the Saints did two weeks ago. I understand that the Saints have not lost three in a row since they opened 2016 at 0-3, but this is a team now being quarterbacked by backup Trevor Siemian. The strength of the Saints now resides on the defensive side of the ball, particularly when it comes to stopping the run. But the Eagles lead the NFL in rush yards the L3 weeks and gashed the Saints for 246 yards in an 24-21 upset last season. That was the first career start for QB Jalen Hurts. Miles Sanders is set to return this week for the Eagles, making their rushing attack all the more formidable. 8* Philadelphia |
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11-15-21 | Rams v. 49ers +3.5 | Top | 10-31 | Win | 100 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
10* San Francisco (8:15 ET): The 49ers currently sit at 3-5 SU, but a win here could “save” their season. They face Jacksonville next week, so there is a decent chance the Niners could be back to .500 at the 10-game mark. But first things first, they do NEED to win tonight. They face a Rams team that they’ve defeated four straight times going back to the start of the 2019 season. What’s really interesting about this matchup is that San Francisco is one of three teams (Detroit & Philly are the others) that are still winless at home. The Rams are one of three teams (Cards, Pats) to still be perfect on the road. Both teams are also coming off frustrating losses. The Rams fell to the Titans 28-16 last Sunday night in what was their worst performance of the year. Despite outgaining Tennessee 347-194, LA was never really “in” the game as they trailed 21-3 at halftime. The game really swung on B2B Matt Stafford INT’s in the second quarter, one of which was returned for a TD (the other set Tenn up at the LA 2-yard line). Remember that the Titans didn’t have Derrick Henry. As for San Francisco, turnovers (-3) were also the culprit in their 31-17 loss last week to an Arizona team that was forced to start backup QB Colt McCoy. Even though both teams lost last week, the Rams are clearly the more “popular” side here as they are 8-2 SU. They also just signed Odell Beckham Jr. But Beckham is as overrated as it gets. I respect the Rams, who have been favored in every game this season, but keep in mind that the Niners have been favored in every game but one. They’ve obviously had the Rams’ number and three of the four wins the last two years have been as underdogs. This game is more important to the home team, who should at least be able to keep things within a field goal. 10* San Francisco |
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11-14-21 | Chiefs v. Raiders +2.5 | Top | 41-14 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 21 m | Show |
8* Las Vegas (8:20 ET): People keep waiting for Kansas City to get going. But what if it never happens? The Chiefs did win last week, but it was “ugly” (13-7 over the Rodgers-less Packers) and they failed to cover the spread … AGAIN. Over their last 20 games (including playoffs), KC is now a money-burning 4-16 ATS. They are 0-6 ATS this season against teams with winning records. With the Raiders ranked higher in my personal power ratings, I will definitely be taking the points on Sunday Night Football. Las Vegas fell to 5-3 SU on the year with a surprising loss to the Giants last week. Coming out of a bye, that was certainly not the result the Silver and Black was looking for. They did outgain the G-Men 403-247, but were undone by three turnovers, one of which was an interception returned for a touchdown. That “pick-six” was the difference in the game. Last week was the “dreaded” 1 PM ET start for the Raiders, a “West Coast” team. I expect them to play much better this week at home, where they are 3-1 SU. At the start of the season, everyone was rightly pointing to the Chiefs’ defense as the reason for their surprisingly poor record. They allowed 30+ points each of the first five games. But what about the offense? It’s now three straight games (and four of five) that Patrick Mahomes and company have scored 20 points or less. They were actually outgained by Green Bay last Sunday, 301-237. This team is a mess right now. I just think that the wrong team is favored in this AFC West matchup. 8* Las Vegas |
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11-14-21 | Seahawks +3.5 v. Packers | Top | 0-17 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 26 m | Show |
10* Seattle (4:25 ET): With Russell Wilson back in the fold, I’m looking for the Seahawks to outscore Aaron Rodgers and the Packers this week. Yes, Rodgers did clear protocol on Saturday and thus is able to play here. So these teams should look much different than the last time we saw them. Now for Seattle, they are certainly hoping for a result similar to what they had vs. Jacksonville two weeks ago. With Geno Smith at the helm, they won that game 31-7. Green Bay is looking to bounce back from last week’s ugly 13-7 loss to the Chiefs where they were forced to start Jordan Love at QB. Though Seattle comes into this game with a 3-5 SU record, they actually have a positive point differential (+12) that’s not far off from Green Bay (who is only +19 despite being 7-2 SU). Once again, I do not feel the Packers are as good as their record shows, something I was adamant about two years ago with them. It’s pretty remarkable that the Pack have covered eight consecutive games, though it should be pointed out that three of their wins were by a field goal or less. The fact that the Seahawks are off a bye and that Rodgers has had no actual practice time this week is a huge advantage for the road dog this week. I firmly believe that GB’s ATS win streak - which is not only the franchise’s longest in the Super Bowl era, but also tied for the longest in the entire NFL the L3 seasons - is due to end. Wilson has thrived as a dog, going 24-12-1 ATS and winning half of the games outright. When getting four or more points, he’s 10-1 ATS and has won outright seven times. This game sets up beautifully for Seattle against a GB team that’s due to lose. Take the points. 10* Seattle |
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11-11-21 | Ravens v. Dolphins +7.5 | Top | 10-22 | Win | 100 | 29 h 23 m | Show |
10* Miami (8:20 ET): The Dolphins got me last week, covering the spread in a 17-9 win over the Texans. In my analysis for that game, I admitted that it was a bit risky to go with Houston, even though Miami came in with the same 1-7 SU record. For what it’s worth, the Texans did have their chance to cover, but elected to kick a field goal (down 11) rather than go for a TD at the three-yard line. But that’s “water under the bridge” now. It’s a new week and the Dolphins are hosting Baltimore Thursday night. My recommendation here is to take the points. You might be a little shocked by that, given my decision to fade Miami last week against a lowly team like the Texans. But the ‘Fins are obviously not favored in this game and there can be no denying that Baltimore has been “living dangerously” this season. Four of the Ravens six victories have been by six points or less, two of them requiring overtime. Last week saw them battle back from a 14-point deficit in the 2H to beat Minnesota 34-31 in OT. While the Ravens held the edge in total yards in that game, 500-318, that’s a little misleading in that they ran 37 more plays than the Vikings. John Harbaugh’s team was actually outgained on a per play basis by Minnesota. As mentioned above, last week wasn’t the first close call Baltimore has pulled out this season. The last time they played in primetime, they were down 16 with just over 10 minutes to go against Indianapolis. They won that game in OT as well. Don’t forget about when they needed a 66-yard FG to beat Detroit or a late fumble to win by 1 against KC (a game the Ravens led for only 3:14). Another thing to consider here is that the Ravens are playing on the road for the first time in over a month. Jacoby Brissett possibly starting again for Miami is a non-issue for me as he’s already proven he’s no downgrade from Tua. 10* Miami |
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11-07-21 | Chargers v. Eagles +2 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -110 | 98 h 58 m | Show |
10* Philadelphia (4:05 ET): The Eagles were not expected to be very good this season. With a 3-5 SU record, one might argue that they are in fact “living up to expectations.” However, I think they’ve played a lot better than people may realize. It’s something I talked about when taking them - plus the points - against Carolina a few weeks ago. The Eagles have outgained their opponents on a per play basis this season! That’s still the case and coming off a 44-6 beatdown of the Lions last week, they also now have a positive YTD point differential! I think Philly is BETTER than the Chargers. Take the points in this one. The Chargers have not won since October 10th when they defeated Cleveland in a wild 47-42 game. Even then, the Lightning Bolts needed to stage a comeback from a two touchdown deficit in the second half. Since that last win, the team has been blown out by Baltimore (34-6) and then, off a bye, lost at home to New England 27-24. You may recall I had the Patriots last week. Similar to this matchup, my power ratings said that LA should have been the underdog when they were in fact favored. At least, the Chargers had home field advantage last week. This week they do not. The Eagles are 0-3 SU at home, so expect them to really want to win here for 1st year HC Nick Sirianni. Chargers’ QB Justin Herbert is banged up (right hand injury) and was limited in practice Wednesday. That makes me like the home team even more in this one. Expect the Eagles to exploit a lousy Chargers’ run defense, which is giving up a league-worst 159 YPG. The Eagles just ran for a season-high 236 yards on the ground last week. Special teams remains an albatross for the Chargers as they currently rank 32nd (per DVOA) for the third year in a row in the “third phase” of the game. The Eagles are 6-2 ATS L8 as home dogs. 10* Philadelphia |
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11-07-21 | Texans +6.5 v. Dolphins | Top | 9-17 | Loss | -105 | 71 h 22 m | Show |
8* Houston (1:00 ET): Cross your fingers and say a prayer, we’re taking the Texans this week. Now this play has far more to do with Houston’s opponent. Miami shouldn’t be laying this many points to ANYBODY as I have them rated as the third worst team in the NFL right now. Are the Texans 32nd (i.e. last)? Yes, they are. But I do not believe this spread is an accurate representation of the actual difference between the two teams right now. The Dolphins have been outscored by 95 points this season and haven’t won a game since Week 1 when they defeated the Patriots - by a single point. Houston’s lone win also came in Week (at Jacksonville). Since then, they’ve lost six times by double digits. The one exception was against the Patriots, a game they led most of the way. There have been some really bad blowout losses for David Culley’s team and last week’s game vs. the Rams was far worse than the final score (38-22) made it seem. But look at some of the teams the Texans have had to play so far. The Rams, Cardinals and Bills are the three highest rated teams in my current power rankings. Do I think Houston wins this week? Not necessarily. But I do believe they will keep this game close (as in within one possession). Miami has had a few more close calls than Houston this season, with three losses coming by a FG or less. But they still have the same seven-game losing streak the Texans do. It was a game effort for three quarters last week up in Buffalo, but the offense still only managed to score 11 points. In six of their eight games this season, the Fins have scored 20 points or less. That’s why I am fading in this spot. Also, Tyrod Taylor is set to return and be the starting QB for Houston. That’s an upgrade from Davis Mills. The Texans have a positive point differential for the six quarters Taylor has played this season. 8* Houston |
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11-07-21 | Broncos +10 v. Cowboys | Top | 30-16 | Win | 100 | 71 h 22 m | Show |
8* Denver (1:00 ET): Dallas surprised all of us last Sunday night when they went to Minnesota and won 20-16 (as 4.5-point underdogs) despite not having the services of QB Dak Prescott. It was the sixth straight win for the Cowboys on the field and at 7-0 ATS, they are the only team to still be perfect at the betting window. I’m banking on that latter streak to come to an end Sunday as America’s Team is caught laying its biggest number of the year. Prescott is expected to play, but regardless of his status I am taking the points. What an odd two years it’s been for Denver when it comes to the oddsmakers. Last season, they were the ONLY team in the entire NFL not to be favored a single time. This year, they’ve been favored in seven of eight games! After starting 2021 a perfect 3-0 SU, the Broncos went on a four-game losing streak. But they picked up a much needed win last week (at home), beating Washington 17-10. They did so despite amassing only 273 yards of total offense. But a “win is a win” in this league and HC Vic Fangio will take it. Denver actually has the best YTD point differential (+20) in the AFC West. Do I think that will hold? Probably not. But the Broncos have let only three teams score more than 17 points this season. Only one of their losses has been by greater than 10 points. I know Von Miller is now gone (traded to the Rams), but I still look for the underdog to make this a close game. The Cowboys are certainly long overdue NOT to cover and after surprising everyone with the win last Sunday night, this is a great time to fade them. 8* Denver |
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10-31-21 | Cowboys v. Vikings +2.5 | Top | 20-16 | Loss | -114 | 102 h 48 m | Show |
10* Minnesota (8:25 ET): Two teams off byes meet in this week’s Sunday Night Football Game. But despite an extra week of rest, the Cowboys are not necessarily healthy. There’s some question as to whether or not QB Dak Prescott (strained calf) will even play here. Regardless if he does or not, I think Dallas is likely to lose this game and suffer its first ATS defeat of the season. They enter as the only unbeaten ATS team in the league (6-0) and are 5-1 SU, the lone loss coming to Tampa Bay on Opening Night. Minnesota is 3-3 SU, however I believe the Vikings are better than their record. After suffering some very close losses in the early part of the season (at Cincinnati, at Arizona and Cleveland), they’ve battled back to square away their record at .500. While they needed OT to get by the Panthers 34-28 two weeks ago, statistically they dominated that game with a 571-306 edge in total yards. Those early season losses to Cincinnati and Arizona (both on the road) no longer look as bad, given where those teams are at now. The Vikings offense may only be 14th in scoring, but it is fifth in total yards per game. Two weeks ago, the Cowboys were very lucky to win, let alone cover, in New England. Obviously, Prescott’s status could change everything, but I liked the idea of fading America’s Team even before the severity of the calf injury was known. It’s not like Dallas is going to cover the spread in every game this season and their defense is giving up 6.5 yards per play so far. The Vikings’ defense is tied for the league lead in sacks (with 21), so even if Prescott does play Sunday night, he’s likely to be under duress the whole time. Not good for a signal caller dealing with a calf injury. 10* Minnesota |
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10-31-21 | Bucs v. Saints +5.5 | Top | 27-36 | Win | 100 | 76 h 0 m | Show |
8* New Orleans (4:25 ET): Tampa Bay couldn’t score ONE touchdown in the second half last week vs. the Bears. Granted they didn’t HAVE to. But I could have used one. I bet the Over in their game vs. the Bears, which was 35-3 at halftime and looking good in that regard. But only a field goal was scored in the 2H and things stayed Under with the Super Bowl Champs winning 38-3. It will undoubtedly be much tougher this week when the Bucs travel to New Orleans to face the rival Saints. New Orleans is off a somewhat ugly 13-10 win in Seattle Monday night. Because that’s fresh on bettors’ minds and Tampa Bay is off a blowout win, I don’t anticipate a rash of people running to the window to play the home team in this one. But I’m here to tell you that the Saints should not be discounted. This team has a very good defense, which is now the identity of the team with HOF QB Drew Brees retired. The Saints are also going to be highly motivated this week. Not just because they are up against the defending Super Bowl Champs (who knocked them out of the playoffs LY), but also because this is just the second game at the Superdome this season. Tampa Bay ran for 182 yards last week on Chicago. That was rather easily a season-high. But I wouldn’t expect them to reach half that number this week. New Orleans is giving up just 81 YPG on the ground. That’s #3 in the league. Now the Bucs defense is #1 against the run. But a big key here is that New Orleans is a home dog of four or more points for just the third time ever under HC Sean Payton. They are 10-2 ATS as a dog since 2018. Tampa Bay is 0-3 ATS on the road this season. My power rankings call this basically a toss up, so I will obviously take the points. 8* New Orleans |
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10-31-21 | Patriots +6 v. Chargers | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 98 h 32 m | Show |
8* New England (4:05 ET): It was “just the Jets,” but the Patriots made quite the emphatic statement last week with a 54-13 win in Foxboro. It definitely made me take notice that this COULD still end up being a playoff team under Bill Belichick. Now I know their three wins have come at the expense of the Jets (twice) and Texans, who are perhaps the two worst teams in the NFL. But the Pats also have three losses that have occurred by either two points or less or in overtime. So their SU record could certainly be better than it is. They now have a YTD point differential of +39 (better than the 4-2 Chargers). So I’m definitely taking the points. Los Angeles is coming off its bye. They needed it as the last time we saw the Lightning Bolts, they were getting thrashed 34-6 by Baltimore. It was easily the worst loss for the Chargers this season. They’ve actually had better luck in close games, which is rare for the Chargers, who have three wins by six points or less. Another issue for the Chargers this season is their run defense, which gives up the most yards per game and attempt in the league. In addition to rookie QB Mac Jones getting better every week, New England ran for a season-best 148 yards last week. The Patriots always seem to have the Chargers’ number. They are 6-0 against them since 2010, including playoffs. That run also includes a 45-0 beatdown from last season where special teams played a key role. Once again, this year finds New England with a massive edge in special teams over LA. I am simply going to trust my own power rankings on this one as they say the visitors are the better team. 8* New England |
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10-31-21 | Panthers +3 v. Falcons | Top | 19-13 | Win | 100 | 94 h 29 m | Show |
9* Carolina (1:00 ET): Two 3-4 teams from the NFC South meet this week in Atlanta. The Falcons are undoubtedly “hotter” at the moment as they’ve won two straight games, one before and one after a bye. But I remain unconvinced that they are a better team than the Panthers. All three of Atlanta’s wins have been by one score, two of them by three points or less. After YEARS of misery in close games, the Dirty Birds won on a last second field goal last week, beating the lowly Dolphins 30-28. Carolina was once 3-0 but has now dropped four straight. They are off their most embarrassing result to date, a 25-3 loss at the Giants. QB Darnold was benched in his return to MetLife Stadium. RB Christian McCaffery remains OUT due to injury. All reports indicate that Darnold will be back as the starter this week. Regardless if those reports end up being true (I believe they are), I’ll be taking the points in this divisional matchup. Atlanta isn’t just 0-2 SU at home this season; they are also 0-6 SU and ATS their L6 as home favorites. Even with the Falcons’ two-game win streak, my power ratings disagree with them being favored here. They have a -41 YTD point differential as they were blown out in the first two games by the Bucs and Eagles. Their three wins have been against the Jets, Giants and Dolphins, three teams that are a combined 4-16 SU. Carolina’s YTD point differential is 0 as their first three losses were all by eight points or less. The Panthers won here in Atlanta LY when they were a weaker team. 9* Carolina |
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10-28-21 | Packers v. Cardinals -6 | Top | 24-21 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 26 m | Show |
10* Arizona (8:20 ET): Two of the league’s hottest teams collide Thursday night in Glendale as the Cardinals host the Packers. Being that it’s a 7-0 team vs. a 6-1 team, this was thought to be the best TNF game of the season (at least to date). However, there is trouble in the Green Bay camp. There is a chance they could be without their top THREE wide receivers here. Both Davante Adams and Allen Lazard landed on the COVID-19 list, so they are out. Marquez Valdes-Scantling has been on IR and missed the L4 games with a hamstring injury. I know GB has Aaron Rodgers, but he can’t catch the ball. Truthfully, even before this ill-timed news broke, I was already looking to fade the Packers this week. They were pretty fortunate to defeat Washington 24-14 last week and cover as 8.5-point favorites. The Football Team turned the ball over THREE times inside the Packers’ 10-yard line in the game. That pretty much negated a 430-304 edge in total yards. The loss of Adams would be critical to the Packers’ offense. Leading up to the game, you will probably hear that the team is 6-0 all-time with Adams out of the lineup. That is true. But so is the fact the gap in number of receptions between him and the team’s 2nd leading receiver is the largest between any #1 and #2 WR on any team in the league. I should probably reiterate that Arizona is undefeated! The Cardinals currently have the best scoring differential in the league at +111. That’s significantly better than Green Bay’s +22. My personal power rankings already had this spread north of a touchdown and that was BEFORE the Packers learned about the positive COVID tests. Only one of Arizona’s wins this year has come by fewer than seven points. While Green Bay won’t be quite the “public dog” I’d hoped they’d be, we’re still getting a discount on the home team, even at the current price. 10* Arizona |
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10-24-21 | Washington Football Team +9 v. Packers | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -123 | 43 h 53 m | Show |
8* Washington (1:00 ET): Seemingly all is well in Green Bay right now as the Packers are riding high on a five-game win streak. They’ve covered the spread in every win as well. But despite the 5-1 SU record, they have an unimpressive point differential of only +8. For comparison sake, all other NFC teams that are 5-1 SU (or better) have a YTD point differential of at least +51. So the Packers are really trailing the other division leaders in that regard. Now, the reason for the Packers’ less than impressive point differential, is the 38-3 beatdown they were handed in Week 1 by the Saints. But I feel this is worth mentioning. Two of the wins have been by a FG or less. Washington, like Green Bay, was a division winner last season. But unlike the Pack, it doesn’t seem like the Football Team is destined to repeat. They are 2-4 SU overall with those two wins coming by a combined five points over the Giants and Falcons. Ron Rivera’s team is also tied for the worst ATS mark in the league at 1-5. The only game they covered was the miracle comeback in Atlanta. But despite their defense not performing as well as expected thus far, I view this as a great “buy low” spot on Washington. This is a team that’s led in every game this season but one (at Buffalo). Green Bay’s defense has allowed a TD every time an opposing offense has entered the red zone this season. That’s bad. This has all the makings of a “trap game” for the Packers, who know that they have a “short week” coming up before a visit to undefeated Arizona on Thursday. Give credit to the Pack for the five-game win streak. It’s not easy to win five straight in this league. But they haven’t really beaten any great teams to this point. It’s even harder to win SIX straight, let alone cover six in a row, so I’m grabbing the points in this one. 8* Washington |
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10-21-21 | Broncos v. Browns -1.5 | Top | 14-17 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (8:20 ET): This may seem like a “risky” bet, given how banged up the Browns are on the offensive side of the ball. With it being a short week, backup Case Keenum will be the starting QB and he won’t have either of the team's two main running backs (Hunt, Chubb) to hand the ball off to. Receiver is a question mark as is the offensive line. But Keenum knows HC Kevin Stefanski’s offense from the time the two spent together in Minnesota. This is the first time the Browns have lost two in a row under Stefanski and I just can’t see them losing a third in a row. Not at home against another reeling team. Lay the points. Denver’s 3-0 SU start to the season now seems like a distant memory. It’s critical to keep in mind that those three wins came at the expense of the Giants, Jets & Jaguars, who are a collective 3-15 SU this season. The Broncos have since nosedived with three straight losses (Ravens, Steelers, Raiders), all of which have been by eight points or more. Their QB (Teddy Bridgewater) is far from 100% right now (foot, quad) and the same could be said for a defense which gave up SEVEN plays of 25+ yards to the Raiders last week (most since ‘91) and is down three starting linebackers. Cleveland played a terrible game last week vs. Arizona, but they easily could have been 5-0 going into that game. They blew halftime leads against both the Chiefs and the Chargers. I know this isn’t “the same team” as those first five games, but I think the Browns will be motivated (in front of a National TV audience) to prove their detractors wrong. Denver was tied for the league lead in net upsets (+5) last season, something that typically does NOT carry over to the following year. It’s interesting that they’ve already lost three games as a favorite this season and this is the first time they’ve been an underdog. The number has come down significantly throughout the week to where there’s value on the Browns. 8* Cleveland |
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10-18-21 | Bills -5.5 v. Titans | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 37 m | Show |
10* Buffalo (8:20 ET): I said it in my analysis for the Sunday night game last week, but I’ll repeat it here. The Bills are the best team in the league right now. They have a +108 point differential after going to Kansas City and winning 38-20 as 2.5-point underdogs. No other team in the league (entering Sunday) has a YTD point differential better than +62. Each of their four straight wins have been by at least 18 points. So while the spread seems high for Monday night’s game in Tennessee, I’m laying it. The Titans are 3-2 and will probably win their division. But I don’t think they’re an elite team by any means or even as good as they’ve been the last couple years. Winning the AFC South should not be viewed as any major achievement as it’s the worst division in football. Two of the Titans’ three wins this year have been against division rivals (Indianapolis and Jacksonville) and they were actually outgained last week by the Jags as the defense gave up nearly 7.0 yards per play to a winless team. Don’t forget the Titans also lost to the Jets. They are certainly not on the Bills’ level. Buffalo’s offense leads the league in scoring and QB Josh Allen should have a field day against a suspect Tennessee defense. For the year, the Titans are being outgained on a per play basis. On offense, they have allowed the most sacks in the league (20) and have a banged up WR corps. Last week saw the Bills avenge their loss in LY’s AFC Championship Game. Here the revenge tour continues as they lost 42-16 to Tennessee last season. They remember that and won’t take their foot off the gas pedal. 10* Buffalo |
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10-17-21 | Cowboys v. Patriots +4 | Top | 35-29 | Loss | -107 | 102 h 8 m | Show |
10* New England (4:25 ET): Dallas is the only team in the league to still be undefeated ATS. The Cowboys ran their mark to 5-0 ATS (and 4-1 SU) with a convincing 44-20 win last week (as seven-point favorites). But the team they beat (the Giants) resembled the “walking wounded” by the end of that game. By the time the second half kicked off, the G-Men were without SEVEN of their Week 1 starters on offense. This included QB Jones, RB Barkley and WR Golladay. So it’s no wonder that the Cowboys were able to win so easily. This week’s opponent seems a lot healthier and is also coming off a win. Now it was closer than anyone expected, but the Patriots did get by the Texans 25-22. This will now be the second time in three weeks that the Pats are home underdogs, something that never happened all that much when Tom Brady was the QB here. You may recall that I took the Patriots two weeks ago when they hosted Brady’s new team (Tampa Bay) and they came away with the cash, covering the number in a close 19-17 loss. If they can stick with the Bucs (lone team to beat Dallas this year), then they can stick with - or beat - the Cowboys. It all starts with a New England defense that gives up only 18.3 PPG. That’s top five in the league. Then, as I discussed in the analysis for the TB game, Bill Belichick has been great as an underdog throughout his career. He’s 49-24-1 ATS here in NE, including 25-10-1 since 2006. As a home dog, Belichick is 15-4 ATS with 12 outright wins. Dallas is an extremely “public” side this week and I definitely trust my money with Belichick more so than I do with Mike McCarthy. Take the points. 10* New England |
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10-17-21 | Cardinals v. Browns -2.5 | Top | 37-14 | Loss | -120 | 102 h 48 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (4:05 ET): Arizona is 5-0 SU and the only unbeaten left in the NFL. But they were also the only team to win last week while being outgained on a per play basis. The 49ers outgained them for the game (338-304) and 5.7 to 5.1 per play. It was a lucky break facing a rookie QB (Trey Lance), who had to make his first career start on the road. Eventually, you know that the Cardinals are going to lose a game. This week, the Cards are poised to be without several key players as they go on the road to face a good Cleveland team. This is where the first loss happens. Cleveland is 3-2 with the two losses being close ones on the road to the Chiefs and Chargers. In both instances, Kevin Stefanski’s team led at halftime. Last week saw them put up 42 points and 532 yards with zero turnovers. They were the first team in NFL history to do that and still lose. That’s little consolation for the Browns, but the good news is that they’ve won six straight times off a SU loss and are 6-0 ATS L6 non-conference games. Arizona has already gone on the road and won three times, twice as an underdog. I can’t see them doing it again. Not with three positive COVID tests among players and staff this week. The one player we know that tested positive is LB Chandler Jones. That’s in addition to the losses of TE Maxx Williams (out for season) and center Rodney Houston to injuries. Cleveland also has its fair share of injuries, but can lean on the league’s best rushing attack and that will be the difference in a game where most of the focus will be about Mayfield vs. Murray. 8* Cleveland |
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10-17-21 | Vikings -1 v. Panthers | Top | 34-28 | Win | 100 | 99 h 44 m | Show |
8* Minnesota (1:00 ET): With the exception of an impressive 30-17 win they had up in Seattle, the Vikings have played nothing but close games this season. Four times things have been decided by seven points or less and last week one FINALLY went Mike Zimmer’s way as the Vikes got a last second FG to beat the Lions 19-17. It really should have never come to that as they led by 10 with less than three minutes remaining, only to give up a FG, then a touchdown after an inexcusable fumble. I happen to agree with the line move here and will play Minnesota as a road favorite. Carolina has been a bit exposed following a 3-0 SU/ATS start. They’ve dropped B2B games, failing to cover the number both times. I faded them last week when they hosted Philadelphia and that proved to be the correct decision as the Eagles came from behind to win 21-18. Like Minnesota, there was a late miscue you can point to (blocked punt), but unlike the Vikings, the Panthers could not overcome it. I remain unsold on Sam Darnold, who has thrown five interceptions and been sacked eight times in the team’s two losses. Despite a 2-3 SU record, the Vikings have a positive point differential, which is something definitely worth mentioning. I know that Minnesota has had its fair share of struggles at the “pay window” going back to last year, but that’s something that’s going to improve moving forward. Carolina may have solid defensive numbers thus far, but they really haven’t faced many good QB’s. The one time they did, they gave up 36 points to Dak Prescott and Dallas. Kirk Cousins has the “goods” to make them pay here and I don’t think the return of Christian McCaffery is enough to stop the Panthers from losing their third straight game. 8* Minnesota |
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10-14-21 | Bucs v. Eagles +7.5 | Top | 28-22 | Win | 100 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
10* Philadelphia (8:20 ET): The road team has gone 5-0 ATS on Thursday Night Football this season, but only 2-3 straight up. Obviously, most are anticipating that SU record will be “squared away” after tonight as the Bucs visit the Eagles. But the Super Bowl Champs best be careful here as Philly is coming off a SU win (I had ‘em!) last week in Carolina. As I said in my analysis for that game, the Eagles have actually outgained their opponents - on a per play and per game basis - despite the losing record. Certainly, the score of last week’s Bucs game will only further attract more bettors to them. They won 45-17 with Tom Brady throwing for 400+ yards and five touchdowns. But they were facing a terrible Miami team, who I have rated dead last in the league in my own personal power ratings. Two of Tampa's other three victories this season have been by just two points. They’ve not fared well on TNF previously, going just 3-8 SU and 2-9 ATS. That includes the season opener vs. Dallas where they won 31-29, but did not cover as nine-point chalk. The Eagles are 0-2 SU/ATS at home thus far, so you know they’re going to be highly motivated to win in front of their fans for the first time under HC Nick Sirianni. It’s not often you get them in this price range, but they are 8-1 ATS the L9 times they’ve been a dog of 7.5 or more points with five outright wins. QB Hurts did not play great last week against a good Carolina defense, but did throw for a career-high 387 yards in his last home game. Here he'll be facing a banged-up Bucs secondary that has given up the most passing yardage in the league. 10* Philadelphia |
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10-10-21 | Bills +3 v. Chiefs | Top | 38-20 | Win | 100 | 102 h 33 m | Show |
9* Buffalo (8:20 ET): The Bills have a serious claim to being the league’s top team right now as they have a +90 point differential, which is #1 overall and the second best point differential through four games in franchise history (only the ‘92 Super Bowl team was better). They are just the second team since the merger to post two shutout victories by at least 30 points (the great ‘91 Washington team is the other) in the first four weeks of the season. Yes, they’ve beaten up on some bad teams. But this week, they have the chance to prove themselves on a national stage in a big revenge spot. I think they get it done. This is pretty clearly not the same Chiefs team that we saw make the Super Bowl each of the last two years. A defense that’s 31st in scoring and 32nd in yards per play is pretty difficult to overcome, even if you have Patrick Mahomes. Not to mention the entire starting offensive line is different from 2020. The defense allowed 29+ points in every game so far and really struggles in the red zone, which is huge for a Buffalo offense that would have even more points if not for settling for nine field goals in 21 RZ opportunities. Meanwhile, Mahomes faces a stiff test this week going up against the league’s #1 scoring defense, which has allowed just 21 points in the L3 games (all to Washington) & is #1 in yards per play. Truthfully, Kansas City was “playing with fire” last season as they were a ridiculously lucky 9-0 SU in games decided by six points or less. Given that record, it’s not really a surprise to see the team regressing somewhat in 2021. Before last week’s 42-30 win in Philadelphia, the Chiefs had covered just two of its previous 14 games. There’s also a revenge angle in play Sunday night as the Bills lost twice to the Chiefs last season, including in the AFC Championship Game. Revenge is one thing, but the Bills are simply better than the Chiefs right now with an obviously massive edge on the defensive side of the ball. Take the points. 9* Buffalo |
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10-10-21 | Eagles +3 v. Panthers | Top | 21-18 | Win | 100 | 47 h 18 m | Show |
10* Philadelphia (1:00 ET): Since opening the season with an impressive 32-6 beatdown of Atlanta, the Eagles have yet to win again. They’ll arrive in Carolina Sunday on a three-game losing streak - both SU and ATS. The last two losses saw them matched up against a couple of the league’s premier teams, Dallas and Kansas City. The Jalen Hurts led offense put up lots of yards and a decent amount of points in those games, but it obviously wasn’t enough either time. Here, they’ll be matched up with a banged up Panthers team that’s coming off its first loss of 2021. I smell “upset,” so take the points. I’d say that the biggest issue in Philly right now is a defense that’s allowed the second most rush yards in the league. But that unit catches a break here as Panther starting Guard Pat Elflien is on IR and Tackle Cam Erving is not expected to play. So even if RB Christian McCaffery does return from his own injury, he’ll be operating behind a line that’s down both starters on the left side. I’m still not sold on QB Sam Darnold, even though he led Carolina to a 3-0 start. Remember two of those wins were against the Jets and Texans. Facing those type of teams is why the Panthers entered last week #1 in total defense. But as we saw they got shredded by Dallas (433 yds allowed) in a 36-28 loss. Clearly, the Eagles are not as good or potent offensively as the Cowboys are. But Hurts is coming off B2B games with 300 yards passing, including a career-high 387 last week. The team has outgained its opponents - on a per game and per play basis - despite the 1-3 SU start. Last week, they had to face the Chiefs on a short week and still it was a one possession game in the 4Q. Carolina’s is banged up on BOTH sides of the ball as they just put two defensive starters on IR and LB Shaq Thompson has been ruled out as well. 10* Philadelphia |
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10-10-21 | Saints -2 v. Washington Football Team | Top | 33-22 | Win | 100 | 27 h 14 m | Show |
9* New Orleans (1:00 ET): For most of last week, it appeared as if the Saints were headed for a victory and Washington was headed for a loss. But instead, the opposite happened. New Orleans shockingly blew a double digit 4Q lead at home and lost in OT to the Giants, 27-21. Meanwhile, Washington came from behind to defeat Atlanta 34-30. What I’m going to do here is use those surprising results to my advantage and take what I feel is an undervalued Saints team on the road this week. Lay the points. The underdog is 6-2 ATS in these two teams’ games this season. That includes 4-0 in Saints’ games. New Orleans has definitely taken an unconventional path to 2-2 SU as they’ve won both times they were dogs (Green Bay, New England) but lost outright both times as favorites (Carolina, Giants). Washington has been favored three times this year, but the only time they covered in that role was last week in Atlanta. The one time they were an underdog, they got blown out 43-21 in Buffalo. Washington’s two wins have been by five total points and came against the Falcons and Giants, two teams that are a combined 2-6 SU right now. They’ve got a backup QB (Taylor Heinicke) under center and the defense isn’t playing anywhere near the level it did last year. Making matters worse, two defensive starters were lost for the season last week. There are also key injuries on offense. The Saints’ offense has obviously fallen off somewhat without Drew Brees, but the defense remains elite, allowing just 66 YPG rushing on 3.1 YPC. I can’t see Heinicke single-handedly leading a Washington upset here. The Saints are a fantastic 30-12 ATS L42 road games. 9* New Orleans |
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10-03-21 | Bucs v. Patriots +7 | Top | 19-17 | Win | 100 | 37 h 38 m | Show |
9* New England (8:20 ET): I know that Tampa Bay is a perfect 5-0 ATS off a loss with Tom Brady as their QB, but you are paying a premium because of that trend Sunday night. This isn’t “any other game” either. It’s Brady’s return to New England where he won six Super Bowls alongside HC Bill Belichick. Brady will become the NFL’s all-time passing leader at some point in this game, but I expect things to be closer than the oddsmakers think as Belichick is a remarkable 14-4 ATS as a home dog. Take the points. New England is just 1-2 SU, but outgained the opponents in both losses. Ironically, they were outgained themselves when they defeated the Jets 25-6 two weeks ago. Being +4 in turnovers in that win was huge, but then the “TO bug” bit them LW vs New Orleans as they were -3 in 28-13 game. Brady might be gone, but I still like this Pats’ defense as it is allowing just 318 YPG. The play that put last week’s game out of reach was pick-six, thrown by Brady’s replacement Mac Jones, early in the 2H. So the defense has yet to allow more 21 in any game. Tampa Bay’s defense has some work to do as the secondary is banged up. They’ve allowed at least 25 pts in every game and had few answers for the Rams last week in a 34-24 loss. The Bucs were a little fortunate to win in Week 1 (needed last second FG) and then the 48-25 final against Atlanta was misleading as that was a one-score game in the 4Q (they returned TWO interceptions for TDs). Given the magnitude of this SNF matchup, I believe the Bucs are WAY too “public” of a side. You know Belichick wants to win this game badly. 9* New England |
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10-03-21 | Steelers +6.5 v. Packers | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -101 | 33 h 43 m | Show |
10* Pittsburgh (4:25 ET): Green Bay’s horrendous Week 1 effort against the Saints now seems like a distant memory as they are 2-1 following primetime victories over the Lions and 49ers. But lest we forget that the Pack trailed Detroit at the half and needed a last second FG to win in San Francisco last Sunday night. This line feels like a classic overreaction to recent results as GB’s 38-3 loss to New Orleans should not be forgotten. They are a public side that should be faded in this spot. I’m taking the points with Pittsburgh. The Steelers’ season does seem to be “heading in reverse” as it’s been the complete opposite of what we’ve seen from the Packers. Pittsburgh started out by going to Buffalo and upsetting the Bills 23-16 as 6.5 point underdogs. But they’ve followed that up with B2B outright losses as favorites, losing 26-17 to Las Vegas and 24-10 to Cincinnati. Both losses were at home. There are many offensive issues right now, but the defense is still good and hopes to get T.J. Watt back this week. This will only be the ninth time that Ben Roethlisberger is an underdog of six or more points. Pittsburgh is 13-3-1 ATS as a dog the L3+ seasons and has the NFL’s best ATS record in the month of October (7-1-1 during that time). The only team that the Packers have held below 28 points was the winless Lions, who scored 17 in the 1H against them. I think the Steelers’ D holds Rodgers below 30 points and will score enough here to cover the spread. 10* Pittsburgh |
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10-03-21 | Titans v. Jets +6.5 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 29 h 19 m | Show |
8* NY Jets (1:00 ET): Incredibly, the Jets are on the verge of starting 0-4 for a third consecutive season. It has been a rough start to the pro career of QB Zach Wilson, the #2 overall draft choice. The Jets’ offense has scored just 20 points in three games while getting held out of the end zone B2B weeks. They were shutout in Denver LW, 26-0, in what was their worst loss yet. But against all odds, I think they’re going to keep this one closer than expected. Take the points with the home dog. Tennessee usually doesn’t have a problem scoring. The Over is 22-6-1 in Ryan Tannehill starts. But this week Tannehill is going to be without BOTH of his starting receivers, Julio Jones and A.J. Brown. Yes, he can still hand the ball to Derrick Henry. But this Jets’ defense isn’t bad at stopping the run. They allow just 3.8 YPC and know what’s coming here. The most points allowed by the Jets in any game so far was the 26 last week. As for the woeful Jets’ offense, I believe it has a chance to get on track here against a Titans’ defense that gave up 30+ points each of the first two weeks. The Jets are one of only three 0-3 ATS teams (KC, Washington), but considering how well underdogs are doing in 2021 (30-18 ATS with 21 outright wins), they are due to cover. First year HC Robert Saleh really needs a win. I’ll almost always gravitate towards a top 10 defense getting this many points at home. 8* NY Jets |
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09-30-21 | Jaguars +7.5 v. Bengals | Top | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 28 h 30 m | Show |
8* Jacksonville (8:20 ET): Urban Meyer’s Jaguars are 0-3 with all three losses coming by double digits. Not even the longest TD in NFL history, a 109-yard return of a missed FG, could get the Jags inside the number against the Cardinals last week. It’s now 18 straight losses for the franchise, a streak that obviously predates Meyer’s tenure here, and the last six have all been by 10+ points. But I believe the Jags are due to keep ONE close. I see that happening this Thursday night against a Bengals team unaccustomed to the role of favorites. Cincinnati is 2-1 but has not been favored in a single game so far. Even Jacksonville was favored once, back in Week 1. In fact, the Bengals have only been favored three times in the last three seasons and they lost two of the games outright! This season’s two wins have come against Minnesota and Pittsburgh, but they were outgained in both games and needed OT to get by the Vikings. The offense has failed to even gain 300 total yards in each of the L2 games. They also lost to the Bears in Week 2. What I’m saying here is that the Bengals should not be trusted as this large of a favorite. Especially on a short week. One would have to go back to the “height” of the Andy Dalton/Marvin Lewis era to find the last time a Bengals team was laying more than seven points at the betting window. The lookahead line was much shorter and I’m just not ready to buy into Cincy yet. Trevor Lawrence just needs to cut down on the interceptions and the Jags will at least keep it close. 8* Jacksonville |
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09-26-21 | Jets +10.5 v. Broncos | Top | 0-26 | Loss | -112 | 19 h 30 m | Show |
10* NY Jets (4:05 ET): The Jets are not being given much of a chance in this game, and for good reason, but make note of the fact they did outgained New England pretty significantly last week (336-260) despite losing on the scoreboard 25-6. Growing pains were obviously expected here with a rookie coach (Robert Saleh) and QB (Zach Wilson), but the team does need to show SOMETHING this week in Denver. It’s a big spread and I feel comfortable taking the points against an opponent unaccustomed to being this large of a favorite. Denver was the only team in the league not to be favored a single time in 2020. This year has seen them favored on the road each of the first two games and now laying double digits in the home opener. How rare is this? It’s the first time the Broncos have been double digit favorites since a 2017 game vs. the Giants that they lost outright by 13 points! QB Teddy Bridgewater has an outstanding career ATS mark (37-15-1) but has NEVER been a double digit favorite before. The largest spread he’s faced previous to this one was laying eight points against Carolina in 2018 when he was with the Saints. He lost that game outright. The biggest problem for the Jets last week was four turnovers. That’s how they lost by 19 despite holding an edge in total yards. In what promises to be a low-scoring game, I think grabbing the points is prudent. Denver has not started 3-0 since 2016. They’ve only averaged 25 points the first two games and despite two double digit wins, this isn’t a team that’s normally going to win big. 0-2 ATS teams have covered at a 60% rate in Week 3 over the last decade. 10* NY Jets |
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09-26-21 | Dolphins +4 v. Raiders | Top | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 18 h 29 m | Show |
8* Miami (4:05 ET): The fact there’s been no real line movement since it was announced that Jacoby Brissett would be starting in place of the injured Tua Tagovailoa says a lot. Surprisingly, the line has even come down a bit. I thought the opening number was a bit of an overreaction to Las Vegas’ 2-0 start, which has seen them upset the Ravens and Steelers. This game was listed as pick ‘em on the lookahead line. Miami is a perfect 6-0 ATS off its L6 SU losses and 10-1 ATS after giving up 30+ points. Take the points. I really don’t think that the dropoff from Tua to Brissett is that severe. Sure, the Dolphins lost 35-0 last week at home to Buffalo. But Brissett was obviously not expecting to play. Now he gets a full week of practice to face a Raiders’ defense that gave up the second most touchdowns in the entire league last year and over 30 PPG. Vegas is a little lucky to be 2-0 as they beat Baltimore in OT and then Pittsburgh suffered multiple key injuries on defense. This is the first time the Raiders have been favored in 2021. They are just 3-7 ATS L10 as chalk with four outright losses. Miami is 9-4 ATS as a road underdog under Brian Flores. They have also won 10 of the last 12 meetings vs. the Raiders, including seven of the last eight. Last year, they pulled out a last second 26-25 win to officially eliminate Vegas from playoff contention. I’m just very skeptical of this Raiders team and it’s hard for me to see them moving to 3-0. The Dolphins’ defense will keep them in this game. 8* Miami |
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09-26-21 | Washington Football Team +7 v. Bills | Top | 21-43 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 26 m | Show |
8* Washington (1:00 ET): The Football Team is 0-2 ATS as a favorite so far, but let’s try them as a dog this week. They did prevail on the field last Thursday, getting a gift from the inept Giants, who were offsides on the first game-winning FG attempt. After missing that first attempt, Washington kicker Dustin Hopkins then made the G-Men pay on his second try, putting the 43-yarder through the uprights and giving Washington a 30-29 win. I was impressed with the play of QB Taylor Heinicke, who completed 34 of 46 passes for 336 yards and two touchdowns in his first start in place of the injured Ryan Fitzpatrick. This will be the Bills’ second straight week facing a backup QB. But I think it’s pretty obvious that Heinicke is better than Jacoby Brissett, who was called into emergency duty last week (Tua injured) as Buffalo blitzed Miami 35-0. Remember that Heinicke started last season’s playoff game for Washington and threw for 300+ yards against eventual Super Bowl Champion Tampa Bay. The Football Team has also had a few extra days to prepare for this game compared to the Bills. That will help Heinicke. The “mini-bye” should also help a Washington defense that’s gotten off to a surprisingly slow start. This was one of the best defenses in the league a year ago. I know Buffalo scored five touchdowns last week, but three of those drives were 52 yards or shorter. Josh Allen is completing just 56% of his passes so far and is 27th in yards. The Bills’ offensive line was overwhelmed against the Steelers and the Football Team is capable of doing the same. Washington is 4-1 ATS its L5 games as a dog, so this role suits them well. They’ve won three of those five games outright. Take the points. 8* Washington |
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09-26-21 | Cardinals v. Jaguars +8 | Top | 31-19 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 25 m | Show |
8* Jacksonville (1:00 ET): Urban Meyer is looking for answers right now as he’s off to an 0-2 start in his professional head coaching career. Jacksonville has lost 17 games in a row going back to last season, the last six all coming by double digits. Now virtually all of that predates Meyer’s tenure here. However, the legendary college coach can certainly ill-afford a third straight DD loss. Predictably, the public is all over the other side (Arizona) in this matchup but I’m seeing some value with the home dog getting more than a touchdown. Take the points. I understand that taking Jacksonville right now may cause you to hold your nose. But the idea of Arizona laying this many points on the road should bolster your confidence. It’s extremely rare to find the Cardinals as this size of a road favorite. Going all the way back to 1993, it’s happened only TWO times! Situationally, it’s not a great spot for the Cards either as this is their second trip to the Southeast in the first three weeks and they’ve got a big division road game next week at the Rams. There’s no denying how good Kyler Murray has looked in the first two games, but the Cardinals were very lucky to defeat Minnesota 34-33 last week. The Vikings missed a “chip shot” field goal on the final play of the game to seal the deal. I had the Vikes plus the points (they obviously covered) as Arizona dropped to 3-10 ATS its L13 games as a favorite in any setting. The Jags fall into several key angles that are 60% ATS or better, long term. 8* Jacksonville |
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09-20-21 | Lions v. Packers -11.5 | Top | 17-35 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
10* Green Bay (8:15 ET): The Packers were rightfully skewered for a horrendous opening week loss to the Saints. They lost 38-3 (were 3.5-point favorites for the neutral site contest) and gained a meager 229 yards of total offense in the process. But this week they are facing the Lions, one of the worst teams in all of football and I say Aaron Rodgers bounces back with a huge primetime showing. The L11 times they have hosted Detroit, the Pack are 9-2 SU with Rodgers throwing 21 TDs and 4 INTs. Green Bay is also looking to win its ninth straight home opener tonight and they should do so by a wide margin. Lay the points. Detroit did cover the spread in Week 1, but they were very fortunate to do so. At home, they trailed the 49ers 41-17 in the fourth quarter before two quick touchdowns (both followed by two-point conversions) allowed them to sneak through the proverbial “back door.” That made me happy as I took the points with the Lions. But again, it was very lucky as the second touchdown came after an onside kick recovery. Rodgers should have no problem shredding a Lions defense which gave up 8.0 yards per play to San Francisco and is now without CB Jeff Okudah for the remainder of the season (ACL). The Lions won’t be favored in a single game this season and they are 31st in my power ratings (ahead of only Houston). Obviously, I dropped Green Bay after last week’s performance, but they still have massive edges on both sides of the ball in this NFC North matchup. Perhaps we can just chalk up last week to a case of Rodgers not playing in the preseason or the fact the game was moved to a neutral site because of Hurricane Ida. Whatever reason you want to go with, I’m calling it a “one week aberration” as last year’s MVP should bounce back with a huge performance tonight. The Packers are 16-5 ATS off an ATS loss and 8-1 ATS off a SU loss. 10* Green Bay |
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09-19-21 | Chiefs v. Ravens +4 | Top | 35-36 | Win | 100 | 20 h 10 m | Show |
9* Baltimore (8:20 ET): Even though the Ravens are on a short week and lost their opener, my power rankings still call this SNF matchup with the Chiefs a pick ‘em. There are definitely some issues with Baltimore right now. Injuries at the running back position plus a defense that doesn’t look quite as good as last year are the primary ones. But lest we forget how good this team has been the last few seasons. They are 9-1 ATS as an underdog since the start of the 2018 season. That includes 6-1 with Lamar Jackson as the starter and the Ravens are 5-2 straight up in those seven games. The only previous time that Jackson was a home dog came against New England in ‘19. Baltimore won that game 37-20. Kansas City has been living very dangerously going back to the second half of last season. They are 2-10 ATS their last 12 games, excluding preseason. It was only a four-point win at home over Cleveland last week, 33-29, where the Chiefs’ defense gave up a horrendous 8.2 yards per play. I played the Browns plus the points in that one, a wire to wire cover that saw them leading outright for most of the game, including 22-10 at the half. Were it not for a big special teams play (Browns’ punter mishandled the snap and ended up turning the ball over deep in his own territory), KC likely does not win that game. Had they lost, my guess is this spread would have been a lot closer to ‘pick em. Getting back to the Chiefs “living dangerously,” nine of their last ten wins (regular season and playoffs) have been by six points or less. That kind of good luck in close games is bound to regress eventually and I’m not going to be surprised at all when they lose a couple of close ones this season. While the Ravens are 0-3 SU vs. KC the L3 seasons, two of those games were decided by five points or less and one went to overtime. I think people are writing off Baltimore far too quickly. They are certainly able to win this game, so take the points. 9* Baltimore |
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09-19-21 | Vikings +3.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 33-34 | Win | 100 | 16 h 59 m | Show |
10* Minnesota (4:05 ET): I know that the Vikings have a banged up defense going into Arizona this week. And that the Cardinals were incredibly impressive in torching the Titans 38-13 in Week 1. But Minnesota is certainly capable of moving the ball as well. They gained over 400 yards in an OT loss to the Bengals in Week 1. Losing that game as three-point favorites, the Vikes have now failed to cover eight straight in the regular season. That’s the longest active ATS losing streak in the league. But I still believe this team is going to be improved in 2021. So take the points as I’m anticipating an outright upset here. How can I still be so confident in the Vikings improving? Well, as I wrote last week, this team was incredibly unlucky in a number of key areas last year. Special teams and lack of success on third/fourth downs were the biggest culprits in addition to a defense slipping to 29th in yards allowed. The kicking game and late down success rate can vary wildly from year to year. The defensive ranking was very uncharacteristic for a Zimmer-coached team. So that stuff is going to improve. The offense will still be good with Kirk Cousins (351 yards LW) and Dalvin Cook running the show. Minnesota has covered five straight times vs. Arizona. The Cardinals won SU as a dog in Week 1, but now they are favorites, a role that they are just 3-9 ATS in the previous two seasons. Not only that, they have a losing SU record (5-7) as chalk. Kyler Murray is 2-5 ATS as a home favorite in his career. The Vikings defense, even banged up, is better than the Titans’. I’ve never been sold on Cardinals’ HC Kliff Kingsbury’s in-game decision making. The Vikings were called for a ton of 1H penalties last week, which shouldn’t be repeated. They have only been a dog for two of those eight straight ATS losses and those games came at Tampa and New Orleans. Arizona is not on that level. 10* Minnesota |
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09-19-21 | Falcons +13 v. Bucs | Top | 25-48 | Loss | -109 | 16 h 59 m | Show |
9* Atlanta (4:05 ET): Underdogs in division games are generally a solid bet the first five weeks of the NFL season. Such teams have cashed over 60% of the time going back to 2006. Double digit dogs in divisional matchups tend to always catch my eye as more often than not you get closer games than expected when the opponents are familiar with one another. So I’ll take a flier on Atlanta here despite the fact they were blown out at home last week, 32-6 by Philadelphia. The Falcons have covered seven of the last eight times they’ve gotten 10 or more points from the oddsmakers. The defending Super Bowl Champs nearly lost the season opener, needing a late drive from Tom Brady to set up the game-winning field goal. Not only did Tampa Bay barely escape against Dallas last Thursday, but HC Bruce Arians is 0-4 ATS all-time as a double digit favorite. So that’s another reason to take the points in this NFC South matchup. Then you’ve got the fact that the Bucs turned the ball over four times against the Cowboys while the defense gave up 450 total yards. Now Dallas is more talented than Atlanta, but I think the Falcons will score enough to stay within the number here. TB allowed 30 first downs last week! Now I know what you’re saying. The Falcons only scored SIX points last week. It was a dreadful showing, one that the new coaching staff should be embarrassed about. But Arthur Smith will have his team ready here. Remember that Atlanta still has QB Matt Ryan. Eight of their 12 losses last season were by seven points or less as they were far better than their record. Seven times they lost a game by less than six points. That includes a blown 17-0 halftime lead against Brady and the Bucs. TB will be without starting CB Sean Murphy-Bunting and did not tackle well in the first game. 9* Atlanta |
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09-19-21 | 49ers v. Eagles +3 | Top | 17-11 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
8* Philadelphia (1:00 ET): Few - if any - teams outperformed my Week 1 expectations more than the Eagles did. They went down to Atlanta and thumped the favored Falcons by a score of 32-6. I don’t think anybody saw Philly starting the year 2-0, but we can use that to our advantage here as they host San Francisco in Week 2 and are getting points. My power rankings label this game as a “pick ‘em,” so there’s some clear value right off the bat. Throw in the fact that San Francisco has already endured some key injuries and I’ll definitely be taking the points in this matchup. It was a miracle cover on the Lions last week when I went against the 49ers. Certainly things did not look good for much of the games, especially when SF led 41-17 early in the 4Q. But an incredible series of events led to Detroit sneaking in through “the back door.” The Niners did put up a ton of points & yards (442), but they don’t get to face the lousy Lions defense every week. The Eagles did not allow a single pass play of more than 20 yards against the Falcons. Also concerning for the Niners was their own defense giving up 430 yards in last week’s win. But worst of all was two key players - RB Raheem Mosert and CB Jason Verrett - being lost to season-ending injuries. What a blow to both sides of the ball! HC Kyle Shanahan has to be thinking “not again!” (The 49ers were among the most injured teams LY). Meanwhile, things couldn’t have gone any better for the Eagles in Nick Sirianni’s coaching debut. QB Jalen Hurts had a career-high passer rating. WR Jalen Reagor had a career-high six catches. I also like rookie WR DeVonta Smith, who also had six catches in his first pro game. The defense didn’t allow a point over the last 44 minutes of game time. Might everyone have underrated this Eagles’ team coming into the season? It’s possible and as I wrote last week, San Francisco has not been good as a favorite under Shanahan (now 7-17-2 ATS). 8* Philadelphia |
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09-19-21 | Broncos v. Jaguars +6 | Top | 23-13 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
8* Jacksonville (1:00 ET): While no team outperformed my expectations more in Week 1 than Philadelphia did (see elsewhere in 3-pack), no team was a bigger disappointment than Jacksonville. The Jaguars laid a major egg in Urban Meyer’s pro debut, losing 37-21 to who we all expect to be the worst team in the league this season (Houston). The market has quickly turned against Meyer, installing him as a big underdog for his 1st home game. Admittedly, the Jags have lost 16 straight regular season games. But it’s difficult to disregard the fact they were favored on the road last week. I’m taking the points here. Jacksonville may have had the league’s worst record in 2020, but Denver was the only team not to be favored in a single game. Now the Broncos will open as favorites in each of their first three 2021 games, so improvement is clearly expected here. Teddy Bridgewater is the new QB, providing some much needed stability on the offensive side of the ball. The Broncos’ defense was pretty good LY, so I can see why people are bullish on this team. But expecting them to win B2B road games by a significant margin? Not sure I’d be that optimistic. HC Vic Fangio is just 1-4 ATS off his L5 SU wins. Denver won 27-13 at the Giants in Week 1. The lookahead line for this game was Denver -2.5. I don’t think that beating one of the worst teams in the league justifies the number moving so much. The Jacksonville offense did average 5.8 yards per play last week with #1 overall DC Trevor Lawrence attempting 51 passes. Three interceptions really doomed Lawrence in his first NFL start, but I think he’s going to take better care of the ball here. Meyer can’t afford to get blown out again and I think his team will keep this one close. 8* Jacksonville |
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09-16-21 | Giants v. Washington Football Team -3.5 | Top | 29-30 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
8* Washington (8:20 ET): Both teams are off deflating Week 1 losses. In the case of Washington, not only did they lose the game 20-16 to the LA Chargers, but they also lost starting QB Ryan Fitzpatrick to a hip injury that could keep him on the shelf for as many as eight weeks. But I think the offense will be in decent hands here with Taylor Heinicke stepping in as the new starter. While this is the first time in his NFL career that Heinicke is going to be a starter for any length of time, remember what he did in last year’s playoff start against Tampa Bay. He threw for 306 yards! Perhaps an even bigger story than Heinicke is that the Football Team is looking to snap a five-game losing streak to the Giants. I think they get their revenge Thursday. Lay the points. As they were for so much of last season, the Giants’ offense looked rather lifeless in a 27-13 loss to Denver in Week 1. They gained only 314 total yards and had just one touchdown before the final play of the game. Now what’s a little misleading there is that there was a drive earlier in the second half where QB Daniel Jones fumbled in the red zone. But still, it wasn’t a great showing from a Giants’ offense that ranked 31st in the league in scoring a year ago. Also concerning was the Giants’ defense surrendered 420 yards to a Broncos’ offense that isn’t exactly regarded as one of the league’s best. They could have given up more points, but the Broncos also had a red zone turnover. I expect Heinicke to be able to move the ball in his first regular season start in three years. I know that the Giants are on a 16-4 ATS run as road underdogs, but eventually Washington is going to beat them. It was rather stunning that the Giants swept last year’ season series given they finished 6-10 while Washington won the division. Granted, they won the division with a 7-9 SU record, but they were definitely a better team than the G-Men in 2020. The last three Giants wins over the Football team have all been by fewer than three points or in overtime. Washington actually outgained them in both games last season. Heinicke played the entire second half last week, completing 11 of 15 passes and won’t be “coming in cold” this time. The Giants’ defense gave up a league worst 5.9 yards per rush last week. Also, had Antonio Gibson not fumbled inside his own 5-yard line last week, Washington probably would have won! 8* Washington |
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09-12-21 | Browns +5.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 29-33 | Win | 100 | 8 h 40 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (4:25 ET): This is a rematch from last year’s playoffs. Kansas City won that game 22-17, but it was Cleveland leaving with the cash as 7.5-point underdogs. The Browns aren’t quite as large of a dog this time around, despite the fact they will be facing Patrick Mahomes for a full 60 minutes. If you recall, Mahomes left that playoff game with a concussion, forcing Chad Henne into duty. The Chiefs were lucky to hold on that day, but I don’t think they’ll be as fortunate Sunday as Cleveland looks like a serious contender in 2021 and I give them a great shot at pulling the outright upset. Take the points here. Kansas City won 16 of its 19 games last year, but all anyone remembers is them losing the big one - 31-9 to Tampa Bay in Super Bowl LV. What you may have forgotten is that the Chiefs were a bad bet down the stretch, failing to cover 9 of their last 11 games. They were extremely fortunate to go 9-0 SU in games decided by seven points or less last season. I think the offensive line is a major question mark entering this season as all five starters are new. Cleveland has one of the better defensive lines in the league and is capable of getting to Mahomes the same way the Bucs did in February. The Browns have not won a season opener since 2004 (0-15-1 SU), so that’s added motivation on top of looking to avenge LY’s playoff loss. Odell Beckham Jr is back healthy, so the offense should be more dynamic. This is not your “older brother’s Browns” any longer as this is one of the few games this year where they will be an underdog. They have the best running game in the league. With the most expensive offense in the league (even with Mayfield still on a team-friendly rookie deal), they are going to put up points. Everyone seems to be assuming the Chiefs are going to roll here, but I think that’s flawed thinking. Look for the Browns to surprise here and prove they are the “real deal.” 8* Cleveland |
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09-12-21 | Vikings -3 v. Bengals | Top | 24-27 | Loss | -106 | 43 h 4 m | Show |
10* Minnesota (1:00 ET): The Vikings are a team that I’m fairly high on for 2021. Most key indicators say they’ll improve upon LY’s disappointing 7-9 SU finish. It was a clear rebuilding year in 2020. The defense, which lost several key contributors due to the salary cap, slipped all the way down to 29th in scoring. That’s very uncharacteristic for a Mike Zimmer stop unit. The Vikes were also unlucky when it came to special teams and third & fourth down relative to success on early downs. Don’t be surprised to see the defense bounce back this year. The offense should be very good again. A Wild Card is certainly not out of the question for this team. I expect them to open the regular season with a big road win at Cincinnati. The Bengals were 4-11-1 SU last season and finished dead last in the AFC North. They were the only team from their division that didn’t make the playoffs. Losing QB Joe Burrow early in the season didn’t help. But it’s not like there’s a ton of talent on hand for Zac Taylor, who seems to be one of the weaker head coaches in the NFL. Burrow is set to return for Week 1 and has a strong group of receivers. But he only took a few snaps in the preseason and it remains to be seen how he looks against “real competition” after suffering a serious injury. There are eight new starters in Cincinnati as well. I would be shocked if the Bengals didn’t finish in last place again this season. This could be Taylor’s last season. Minnesota comes into 2021 on the longest ATS losing streak in the league. They failed to cover their final seven games last year. But Zimmer is 14-8 ATS all-time in the regular season as a road favorite. As many of you know, I’m not a big fan of taking road favorites in the NFL. But this looks like a line we can exploit in Week 1. If I’m right about the Vikings’ improving, then this is a game they should win. Kirk Cousins threw for 4,265 yards and 35 touchdowns LY and has a tremendous group of skill position players around him, including RB Dalvin Cook, who should have no problem cutting through a Bengals defense that gave up a league-worst 5.2 YPC “up the gut” last season. The Bengals have won only one of Burrow’s nine starts. 10* Minnesota |
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09-12-21 | 49ers v. Lions +9 | Top | 41-33 | Win | 100 | 43 h 4 m | Show |
8* Detroit (1:00 ET): The Lions figure to be one of the more “unpopular” sides in Week 1. Very little is being expected in Dan Campbell’s first season on the job and sure enough the team has the lowest projected win total in the NFC (second lowest overall). But this is a big spread for the opening week of the season, especially considering the Lions are playing at home. I’m well aware that San Francisco should be one of the league’s most improved teams for 2021, but that was built into a line that has since been bet up even higher. The 49ers are just the third team in the last 20 seasons to be a Week 1 road favorite of at least seven points coming off a losing season. The previous two both lost their games outright! Not saying Detroit will get the SU win here, but it is also worth noting that SF has lost outright the last five times it has been a favorite. Kyle Shanahan is just 7-16-2 ATS as a favorite as the HC of the 49ers, including 1-7-1 ATS when laying at least a touchdown. So all things considered, this line appears to be a case of “putting the cart before the horse.” Again, I expect the Niners to be improved and win double digit games. Basically everything - from injuries to turnover margin - went wrong for them in the 2020 season. But that doesn’t mean they’re ready to go out and win by more than one score on the road in Week 1. The Lions have a new QB in Jared Goff. He’s viewed by most as a downgrade from the player he was traded for, Matthew Stafford. But don’t be surprised if Goff, who has started a Super Bowl before, exceeds his relatively low expectations. Campbell’s defense should absolutely be better this year (how can it not be?). I think the underdog is going to play “loose” in the season opener while the Niners may very well be overconfident. Take the points. 8* Detroit |
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02-07-21 | Chiefs v. Bucs +3.5 | Top | 9-31 | Win | 100 | 288 h 31 m | Show |
10* Tampa Bay (6:30 ET): I opened my analysis of the AFC Championship Game by pointing to the fact that there was a much different “feeling” surrounding the Chiefs going into the penultimate game of the season. While last year’s Super Bowl winning team closed on a 9-0 ATS run, this year’s edition was just 1-8 ATS its L9 going into last week. And even that one cover came with a bit of an “asterisk.” Many (myself included) were able to grab the Saints +3.5 in that game, which ended up being a 32-29 KC victory. Nevertheless, I still laid the points with the Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game, so I was quite happy to see them dispose of the Bills 38-24. But I think Super Bowl LV is going to be a different story. There’s only so many times that a team can continually dig itself out of early holes. If you’re wondering how I can go from taking to fading the Chiefs, the answer is pretty simple. They’re facing a better team in the Super Bowl than they did in the AFC Championship. In fact, I believe the better team is getting points in Super Bowl LV. At least that’s what the power ratings say. I’m certainly not going to pass up this opportunity to take the points with a team that’s now 4-1 ATS as an underdog this season, including the B2B upsets of New Orleans and Green Bay to get here. This will be just the second time Tom Brady is an underdog in the Super Bowl. The first was all the way back in 2002, his 1st SB appearance, when the Patriots upset the Rams as 14-point underdogs. Brady is now an incredible 41-17-1 ATS all-time as a dog in his career. This is a rematch from the regular season, a game that was won by the Chiefs 27-24. They didn’t cover though (were -5). It just so happens that was the rare occasion where KC got off to a hot start (led 17-0 after 1Q). But they let the Bucs in through the back door. Getting off to good starts has NOT happened for the Chiefs in the playoffs though as they’ve fallen behind by nine points or more in four of their last five postseason contests. Do not forget this game is being played in Tampa Bay’s home stadium. That’s not as big of an edge as it would be in any other year, but it’s still an edge. Another key is that Chiefs could be without BOTH starting offensive tackles. We just saw the Bucs tremendous defensive front (#1 in the league against the run) dominate a banged up Packers offensive line in the NFC Championship Game. I think it must be pointed out that the loss to the Chiefs came right before Tampa Bay’s (very) late season bye. Since then, they are 7-0 SU and averaging 34.2 PPG. They are a better team now than when they faced the Chiefs the 1st time. Take the points. 10* Tampa Bay |
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01-24-21 | Bills v. Chiefs -3 | Top | 24-38 | Win | 100 | 75 h 26 m | Show |
10* Kansas City (6:40 ET): The Chiefs are not only in, but hosting the AFC Championship Game for a third consecutive season. However, it certainly FEELS a lot different than last year when they rode a 7-game ATS win streak into the season’s penultimate game and defeated Tennessee 35-24 here at Arrowhead Stadium. That team would of course go on to win the Super Bowl and end the season on a 9-0 ATS win streak. This year, the Chiefs come into the AFC Title Game on a 1-8 ATS run and that one cover comes with an asterisk as some (myself included) were able to grab the Saints +3.5 in that game, which ended up being a 32-29 KC victory. Last week, they had to hold on to beat the Browns 22-17 (closed -7.5 most places) as Patrick Mahomes left the game with a concussion. I’m operating on the assumption that Mahomes is going to play Sunday. It’s not as if Kansas City hasn’t had to overcome some attrition before. In last year’s playoff run, they trailed by double digits in all three games! Buffalo is in its first AFC Championship Game since 1994 when they were in the final year of their infamous four consecutive Super Bowl appearances (0-4), led by Jim Kelly, Thurman Thomas and Bruce Smith. They are viewed as the “up and comers” in this matchup, but the reality is the Bills are a bit lucky to be here as they’ve been outgained in both playoff games, 472-397 by the Colts and 340-220 by the Ravens. Both games swung on goal-to-go decisions by the opposing team. Indianapolis failed to score a TD on 4th down while Baltimore QB Lamar Jackson threw a “pick-six” in the end zone when the game was still 10-3. Remember that the Chiefs got a first round bye, so that and the home field are two key advantages they have here. Back in Week 6, they won in Buffalo 26-17 as 5.5-point favorites, so we’re getting a ton of value with this line. I took the Chiefs in the first half of that game and won. Here I’ll play the full game as Mahomes has won 11 straight starts and is 26-14 ATS as a single-digit favorite. 10* Kansas City |
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01-16-21 | Ravens +2.5 v. Bills | Top | 3-17 | Loss | -100 | 76 h 12 m | Show |
10* Baltimore (8:05 ET): Two of the league’s hottest teams square off Saturday night in the Divisional Round. I’m betting big on the Ravens. While Buffalo is on a seven-game win streak, Baltimore has won six in a row and covered seven straight. The Bills just had their own eight-game ATS win snapped last week. Though their fans could hardly care as the franchise FINALLY got the proverbial “monkey off its back” by winning in the postseason for the first time in a quarter century. But they were a bit lucky to win considering the Colts outgained them 472-397. In fact, all nine Indianapolis drives ended in Bills’ territory! The Bills’ defense forced only two punts the entire game and both were in the 1Q! Baltimore had to overcome an early 1Q deficit to win its Wild Card Game, which was sweet revenge after what happened against Tennessee in LY’s playoffs. But I thought the Ravens were pretty clearly the better team last week. They outgained the Titans nearly 2:1 (401-209). With the Bills’ defense struggling for much of last week, I expect the Ravens offense to put up a big number here. Their strength is running the ball and that happens to the weakness of the Bills’ defense which has allowed 150+ rush yards five times this season. Lamar Jackson and company have had no issues scoring down the stretch, averaging 34.3 PPG during the six-game win streak. The Ravens ended up leading the league in scoring differential in the regular season. So this will likely come down to Baltimore’s defense being able to stop Josh Allen and the Buffalo offense. I think they’re up for the challenge. Allen’s two top receivers (Diggs, Beasley) are still battling injuries and RB Moss is out, leaving Devin Singletary as the primary ball carrier. With the weather forecast calling for snow, that’s a benefit to the team that likes to run more (which is Baltimore). I do NOT think the Ravens should be underdogs here, but I’ll gladly take the points as they are 9-2 ATS their L11 as dogs, including seven outright wins. Jackson is 14-3-2 ATS on the road. 10* Baltimore |
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01-16-21 | Rams +7 v. Packers | Top | 18-32 | Loss | -125 | 73 h 32 m | Show |
8* LA Rams (4:35 ET): A majority of the headlines referred to the Rams’ Wild Card victory over the Seahawks as “shocking.” But it was no shock to me. I backed them. While it was a little surprising to see them score 30 points with Jared Goff being called into emergency duty, I specifically cited the Rams’ defense as a reason they might pull the upset. I don’t think people realize how good this team, specifically its defense, really is. The Rams had the best yards per play differential in the league during the regular season and their defense was #1 in scoring, total yards allowed and passing yards allowed. Going into the Divisional Round, we know Goff will be starting and I’ll take the Rams plus the points again. Green Bay defied regression to go 13-3 SU for the second straight regular season. Aaron Rodgers is the likely MVP this year. To be clear, when I talk about “defying regression,” I’m speaking of the fact the Pack went an extremely fortunate 9-1 SU in one-score games a year ago. That usually guarantees a fewer # of total wins the following season, but it didn’t here and that’s largely because of the play of Rodgers. Green Bay had a much better YTD point differential in 2020 (+140) than they did in ‘19 (+63). They come into the playoffs on a real roll, winners of six straight games, all by seven points or more. But only one of those victories came against a team that finished with a winning record. I’m not going to put much stock in Goff’s 0-2 record when gametime temperature is 32 degrees or lower as that is a very small sample-size. Like they have much of the season, it’ll be the defense carrying the Rams anyway. Aaron Donald is going to play, which is key. So is the fact Jalen Ramsey will be charged with covering Rodgers’ favorite target Davante Adams. The Rams’ defense has allowed more than 24 points in just three games this season. This team is 5-2 ATS and STRAIGHT UP as an underdog and is a perfect 6-0 ATS/SU coming off a division game. Even with the bye, I don’t think this spread should be higher than five points. Take the points. 8* LA Rams |
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01-09-21 | Bucs v. Washington Football Team +9 | Top | 31-23 | Win | 100 | 56 h 42 m | Show |
8* Washington (8:15 ET): Underdogs have generally been the way to go in the Wild Card Round, going 6-2 STRAIGHT UP the past two seasons. Going all the way back to 2007, there has been at least ONE upset in the WC Round in 11 of 13 seasons. Now that the “SUPER” Wild Card Round is upon us (six games rather than four due to playoff expansion), I don’t really expect the trend to change. Tampa Bay is a big road favorite here, which is actually NOT a great spot historically as the only three previous road teams to be favored by six or more all lost outright, including the now infamous 2010 Saints, who were facing a 7-9 division winner (Seattle) that no one thought “deserved” to make the playoffs. Washington is only 7-9 and we all (rightfully) mocked how bad the NFC East was this year. But the truth of the matter is that the Football Team is better than its record. They had a +6 point differential in the regular season, which is better than two other playoff teams - Chicago & Cleveland. Also, they were 5-1 SU/4-2 ATS in starts made by Alex Smith, who hasn’t been an underdog of more than seven points since guiding the Chiefs to an upset win in New England back in Week 1 of the 2017 season. The last two 7-9 (SU) teams to make the playoffs both won in the Wild Card Round. This is the Saturday night game and let’s not forget Tampa Bay is 0-4 ATS in primetime this season. They lost (outright) to the Bears, Saints (badly) and the Rams. The only primetime win was by two points against the Giants, Washington’s division rival. I believe the Football Team has the kind of defense (tremendous front four) that can give Tom Brady trouble. Plus, Brady’s best receiver (Mike Evans) may not even play (‘gametime call’). This Washington defense is #2 in the league in yards allowed and #3 in scoring. The Football Team’s last five losses have all been by seven points or less. 8* Washington |
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01-09-21 | Rams +3.5 v. Seahawks | Top | 30-20 | Win | 100 | 29 h 31 m | Show |
8* LA Rams (4:40 ET): Underdogs have generally been the way to go in the Wild Card Round, going 6-2 STRAIGHT UP the past two seasons. Going all the way back to 2007, there has been at least ONE upset in the WC Round in 11 of 13 seasons. Now that the “SUPER” Wild Card Round is upon us (six games rather than four due to playoff expansion), I don’t really expect the trend to change. While the QB situation is in flux, I don’t think most are aware of just how good this Rams defense is or the fact the team’s YPP (yards per play) differential is among the very best in the league this season. I’m taking the points here. This Rams’ defense led the league in both scoring (18.5 PPG) and yards allowed (282.1 per game) this season. They were also #1 against the pass. Opposing offenses scored a TD on only 16% of their possessions during the regular season. While you may think Seattle QB Russell Wilson is set “to cook” here, you better think again as he went just 2 of 16 on passes of 30+ yards the final eight reg season games, including 1 of 6 vs. the Rams, who are the best in the league at limiting such completions (just 14.8%). Wilson has NOT thrown for more than 200 yards in any of the L3 games, a stretch which has seen the Seahawks get outgained, something that was the case over the course of the season as well! The more interesting battle here seems to be whomever the Rams QB is vs. the improved Seattle defense. Rams HC Sean McVay won’t announce whether its going to be Jared Goff or John Wolford until right before kickoff, but obviously he and the team knows. Seattle doesn’t, which is an obvious disadvantage. The Seahawks’ defense went from being the worst in the league over the first eight games to the best over the final eight games, which is quite the transformation. The reality is probably somewhere in the middle. Most Seahawks’ games end up being close, so I like the points with a Rams team that has covered four of its last five as a road dog of three points or less. 8* LA Rams |
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01-09-21 | Colts +7 v. Bills | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 49 h 32 m | Show |
10* Indianapolis (1:05 ET): Underdogs have generally been the way to go in the Wild Card Round, going 6-2 STRAIGHT UP the past two seasons. Going all the way back to 2007, there has been at least ONE upset in the WC Round in 11 of 13 seasons. Now that the “SUPER” Wild Card Round is upon us (six games rather than four due to playoff expansion), I don’t really expect the trend to change. Did you know the Colts were an underdog just ONE time during the regular season? That was when they were +1 in Cleveland of all places. They are the ONLY team in the league that wasn’t +3 or higher in any game in 2020. Buffalo comes into the playoffs red-hot, having won six straight (all by 10 pts or greater) and 9 of their last 10. Their only loss in those L10 games came on the now-famous “Hail Murray” vs. Arizona. The Bills have covered the spread in each of their L8 games, which is the longest ATS win streak entering the postseason since the 2011 Saints. Only three teams in history have carried a longer ATS win streak into the postseason and all of them came prior to 1995, which is the last time the Bills franchise won a playoff game. While the Bills are deservedly big favorites to win here, there’s a lot of pressure on them in what is their first home playoff game since ‘96. I don’t think most people fully appreciate how good this Colts team is. They played just one bad game all season (vs. Tennessee) and that was when they had a number of key defensive players out. This defense is top 10 in the league in both scoring and yards, having spent a majority of the year at/near the top. QB Rivers is 6-2 ATS in his career as a playoff underdog, including 4-0 when getting seven or more points. I think this spread should be several points lower and the Colts are absolutely capable of winning outright. They’ve won six of eight and in one of those losses (Pittsburgh) they blew a DD lead. Buffalo’s top two receivers (Diggs, Beasley) are both dealing w/ injuries. 10* Indianapolis |
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01-03-21 | Seahawks v. 49ers +6.5 | Top | 26-23 | Win | 100 | 53 h 53 m | Show |
10* San Francisco (4:25 ET): Realistically, Seattle (11-4) doesn’t have much to play for here, so I don’t like the idea of them laying this many points on the road in Week 17. Yes, they still do have an outside shot at earning homefield advantage and the NFC’s #1 seed, but that would require not only a win, but losses by BOTH Green Bay & New Orleans. The latter part of that equation is rather unlikely. Some “scoreboard watching” could lead to the Seahawks potentially “shutting it down” in the second half, making the points look even more attractive in this NFC West matchup. San Francisco proved last week that they are not going down without a fight in 2020. I took them as a dog against the Cardinals and they delivered an outright win over a team fighting for its playoff life. Since the start of last season, the 49ers are now 9-3 ATS as underdogs with eight outright victories. Three of their six SU wins this season have come against the division (2 vs. LA, 1 vs. ARI) and there is nothing more that they’d like to do here than beat a team they have struggled mightily against ever since Jim Harbaugh left. Since 2012, the Niners are just 4-14 ATS vs. the Seahawks. This seems like a really nice value on SF considering they were just a 1-point underdog up in Seattle back in Week 8. They lost that game 37-27, but still I can’t see justifying the spread getting this much bigger on the road. Seattle has failed to cover five straight away from home and seven of their wins this season have come in one possession games. I know that it’s a “raw deal” for the Niners having to play their “home games” in Arizona and they’ve yet to win as the “home team” here. But they did just win on this field last Saturday. This will be their 4th time playing here in the last 5 weeks. As I said last week, the Niners are better than their record as they’ve outgained opponents on the season. CJ Beathard is a better QB than Nick Mullens, especially with TE George Kittle back on the field. 10* San Francisco |
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01-03-21 | Titans v. Texans +7.5 | Top | 41-38 | Win | 100 | 53 h 53 m | Show |
9* Houston (4:25 ET): The 4-11 Texans have been relegated to spoilers here, but don’t expect them to “tank it” against a hated division rival that they could potentially knock out of the playoffs. Also, Houston does not have any Draft incentive being that they’ve already traded away next year’s 1st round pick (big mistake!). DeShaun Watson and JJ Watt are still both on this team and seven of the Texans’ losses this season have come in one-score games. I expect them to remain competitive at home on Sunday and this is an inflated line due to the Titans needing to win the game (my power ratings say the line should be +3.5). We know about Tennessee's success since Ryan Tannehill became the starting QB (20-4-1 ATS!), but they got drilled last Sunday night up in Green Bay. That 40-14 defeat sets up a scenario where the Titans basically must win to get in the playoffs/win the AFC South. A loss would be devastating as the Colts (also 10-5 SU) are hosting Jacksonville and will almost certainly win that game. Oddsmakers are well aware of the situation and have inflated this number knowing the public will want to bet the team in the “must-win” spot. Something to remember is that these teams went to overtime in Tennessee back in Week 6. The Titans were very lucky to cover the spread in that game as they scored a TD (rather than kick a FG) to win 42-36 as a 3.5-point favorite. Now they are an even larger favorite on the road, so there’s obvious value to be had here with a Houston team that is 14-7 ATS vs. Tennessee since 2010. Something else worth noting is that Houston has outgained its opponents this season while Tennessee has not. The Titans are rarely road favorites of this size, which helps explain the ridiculous ATS record. Take the points. 9* Houston |
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01-03-21 | Packers v. Bears +4.5 | Top | 35-16 | Loss | -120 | 19 h 40 m | Show |
8* Chicago (4:25 ET): Green Bay has seemingly defied regression this season and is now in position to earn home field advantage throughout the NFC Playoffs. They looked incredibly impressive last week on SNF, destroying a good Tennessee team 40-14 at Lambeau Field. Last year’s Packers went 13-3, but had a point differential of only +63. They benefited from an extremely fortunate 9-1 SU record in one-score games. I thought that record in close games virtually guaranteed fewer wins this season (it usually does), but here we are with the Pack at 12-3 heading into the final game of the season, which finds them favored in Chicago. The Bears are just looking to make the playoffs, something that admittedly seemed very far-fetched a month ago. But a 3-game win streak that has seen them average 36.7 PPG has them in control of their own destiny. A win here would clinch a playoff berth. Now beating the Packers has been a problem for Matt Nagy’s team, who lost 41-25 in Lambeau the Sunday after Thanksgiving. But since then, with Mitch Trubisky back in at QB, this has been a different offense/team. The Bears’ offense has put up 30+ points in four consecutive games, something they hadn’t done going back to the 1960’s! My prediction of WL regression for the Packers can still hold true with a loss here. That piqued my interest a bit. So did the way the line has moved this week. There can be no denying that the Bears are a much different team than they were the first go-around with Green Bay. While the Packers will be motivated to earn the 1st round bye, the Bears won’t be lacking for motivation either. Trubisky is trying to earn a new contract, Nagy is trying to save his job and the team is trying to get into the playoffs by beating a rival they are 3-18 SU against in the L21 meetings. Take the points with the home dog here. Green Bay just lost its starting LT to a season-ending injury on Thursday, which is certainly significant. 8* Chicago |
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12-28-20 | Bills v. Patriots +7 | Top | 38-9 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
10* New England (8:15 ET): There are two six-game streaks on the line coming into this game. Buffalo has covered six in a row. New England has gone Under in six in a row. I’ll be fading the former here as I just think that this is far too many points for the Bills to be laying. My own personal power ratings have this number much shorter. In fact, those ratings say this line should be under a field goal. So I’ll gladly take the points in this matchup as the Patriots are back in Foxboro for the 1st time in a month (they are 4-2 SU in home games this season). Assuming this line doesn’t close lower than -6.5, it will be the most points the Bills have laid to the Patriots since the glory days of Jim Kelly (1993). Quite frankly, being favored against New England is a position Buffalo is completely unaccustomed to being in. They were favored in the first meeting this season, but were just -4 at home. They won that game 24-21 when Cam Newton fumbled inside the red zone on the potential game tying/winning drive. That’s the last game the Bills failed to cover btw! It was the 1st time the Bills had been favored against the Pats since Week 1 of 2003! New England has not gotten at least seven points in an AFC East game since 2001 at Miami. It’s the first time they’ve been a home dog of 7 pts since that same 2001 season (vs. Peyton Manning and Indianapolis). That was Tom Brady’s rookie season. Getting a FG or more, New England is 22-11 ATS under Belichick and 10-3 ATS when getting at least seven. They are 14-3 ATS (12-5 SU) as a home dog under Belichick including 2-0 ATS this year. So it’s not all “ancient history.” Buffalo has been rolling, but a 7th straight cover when laying this many points on the division road seems unlikely. 10* New England |
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12-27-20 | Colts v. Steelers +2.5 | Top | 24-28 | Win | 100 | 26 h 40 m | Show |
UPDATE: Liking this play even more now with the announcement BOTH Colts' starting tackles are out. 8* Pittsburgh (1:00 ET): Things have really “gone South” in a hurry for the Steelers, who were once 11-0 SU. They’ve now suffered three consecutive SU losses and have failed to cover all four games in December. Their only win this month came against a Ravens team that was severely depleted because of COVID (game was played on a Wednesday night). Starting with that less than stellar effort, the Black & Gold have averaged just 17 PPG the L4 weeks. A new nadir came Monday night when they lost outright - as a two touchdown underdog - to 2-win Cincinnati. Apologies (from players and coaches) have been issued ever since. I know Indianapolis commands a lot of respect in the marketplace. Did you know that the Colts have been underdogs in only one game all season? That was when they closed +1 at Cleveland in Week 5! But this sure feels like a “buy low” spot on the Steelers. The lookahead line for this game was Pittsburgh -3, but after the loss on MNF, it almost instantly “jumped the fence” to where now the Steelers are underdogs for the 1st time all season at home. This line move reminds me a little bit of when the Colts ended up favored against Baltimore and lost 24-10. But that game was played in Indianapolis. The Steelers’ offense has been held under 20 points in four straight games, something that hasn’t happened since Ben Roethlisberger’s rookie season. With fingers being pointed, I expect Big Ben and the offense to “get it going” here against a Colts’ pass defense that has given up three straight 300+ yard passing days. Indy was outgained at home by Houston last week, 425-350. Pittsburgh allowed just 230 total yards vs. Cincinnati, but was an unlucky -3 in turnover differential. Getting points, at home, with a team that started the year 11-0 is a value I simply cannot pass up. 8* Pittsburgh |
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12-27-20 | Browns v. Jets +10 | Top | 16-23 | Win | 100 | 26 h 40 m | Show |
8* NY Jets (1:00 ET): The Jets finally won a game last week as they stunned the Rams 23-20 as a two-touchdown underdog on the road. While it saved them from the potential embarrassment of going 0-16, the win ultimately may prove costly as the Jets are no longer in position to pick 1st in next spring’s Draft (Jacksonville is). Of course, HC Adam Gase probably doesn’t want to get fired (I would have never hired him), so the win may have bought him some time. I think the conventional wisdom here will be that the Jets “can’t possibly win two in a row.” While that may be true, I do see a ton of value with line. The Browns went 0-16 a few years ago, but that’s now a distant memory with Baker Mayfield leading a renaissance in Cleveland. The Browns are now 10-4 SU and barring a complete collapse will be in the playoffs for the first time since 2002. But this is a somewhat unprecedented spread for Cleveland. The last time they were favored by at least 9 points on the road was 1976 when they laid two touchdowns to the expansion Buccaneers. That was a long time ago! Mayfield is just 2-6 ATS in his career as a road favorite and the Browns are 3-10 ATS overall their L13 road games. You may recall that I successfully faded them a few weeks ago in Jacksonville when they were -6.5. They ended up winning that game by only two points. Since Week 5, the Browns have just one win by more than five points. It came last week in this stadium, against the Giants, 20-6. However, you should note the Giants failed to score on TWO drives that ended inside the 10-yard line. With half the Browns games this season being decided by one score, you really can’t justify laying this many points with them on the road. I know it’s the Jets and motivation could be an issue now that they’ve actually won, but my power ratings say this number should be under a touchdown. The Browns are only 3-6 ATS their L9 games and have failed to cover four of the six games where they’ve been favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. Take the points. 8* NY Jets |
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12-26-20 | 49ers +5 v. Cardinals | Top | 20-12 | Win | 100 | 50 h 52 m | Show |
10* San Francisco (4:30 ET): After “striking gold” as NFC Champs a season ago, the 49ers’ fortunes quickly soured in 2020. Injuries piled up early on, leaving them depleted on both sides of the ball. The end result is a 5-9 SU record and they are down to third string QB CJ Beathard as they get ready to face the Cardinals this week (Saturday). Arizona is a place the Niners should be quite familiar with at this point; it’s where they’ve been playing their “home games” due to local COVID-19 restrictions. While they’ve yet to win here (0-2), playing in the same stadium for the third time in four weeks is a bit of a “hidden advantage.” So I’m actually taking the points here. Both the 49ers and Cardinals scored 33 points last week and put up a ton of yards. The 49ers gained 458 against the Cowboys while the Cards finished with 526 against the Eagles. Interestingly, both also lost the turnover battle pretty badly (49ers -4, Cardinals -3). But while San Fran lost by 8, Arizona still managed to win by 7. That’s pretty much the way it’s gone for these two teams in 2020 as the Cardinals are now ascending in the NFC West. They need this game to move closer to their first playoff berth in five years. Meanwhile, there’s a very good chance the 49ers could be the only team in the division NOT to make the playoffs this year. While it’s “must win”, I feel Arizona is a little overvalued here. While they’ve had success against the 49ers in the past, including a 24-20 win back in Week 1, they’ve also been the underdog in each of the L5 meetings. When favored this year, the Cardinals are just 3-7 ATS with five outright losses.The 49ers really should have beaten Dallas last week (were +167 in total yards) but two early TO’s dug them into a 14-0 hole and they also allowed a kick return for TD. In relief, Beathard actually played pretty well, leading two scoring drives. Having outgained opponents on a per game and per play basis this season, the Niners are better than their record. They were actually favored each of the L3 wks, not to mention were -7 vs. Arizona in Wk 1. Good value here. 10* San Francisco. |
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12-25-20 | Vikings +7.5 v. Saints | Top | 33-52 | Loss | -136 | 45 h 27 m | Show |
10* Minnesota (4:30 ET): Though last week’s 33-27 upset loss to the Bears (at home) effectively ended any chance they have to make the playoffs, I think there’s actually quite a bit to like about this Minnesota team moving forward (expect a bounce back in 2021). Yes, I know they are 0-5 ATS their L5 games. But four of those games have been decided by 6 pts or less. The only one that wasn’t, a 26-14 loss to Tampa Bay two weeks ago, saw them take an early lead. With New Orleans suddenly struggling (also off B2B losses), this feels like it will be closer than experts think. Half of the Saints’ victories this season have come by 6 pts or less. The Saints defense, which had a historically great 5-game stretch, has suddenly “sprung a leak.” Yes, they had to face Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City last week. But what about the week before when they got to go against a rookie QB making his 1st career start? Jalen Hurts and the Eagles not only scored 24 points in a shocking upset, but they also ran for 246 yards. In case you needed to be reminded, the Vikings have Dalvin Cook, the league’s leading rusher. The Saints’ D also allowed 179 yards rushing vs. the Chiefs. Overall, this Vikings offense averages a really solid 6.3 yards per play. They’ve scored 27+ pts five of the last seven weeks. They should put plenty of points on the board again here. Historically, Minnesota does well in this spot. The spot being “off B2B losses.” They are 3-0 ATS in that role this season and 6-0 ATS the L3 seasons! They’ve won five of those six games outright. Let us not forget that Minnesota came here to the Superdome in January and won outright, 26-20 with an almost identical pointspread. Drew Brees didn’t look like himself last week (returned too early?) and New Orleans is a lousy 1-5 ATS the last six times they’ve been a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 pts. Take the points. 10* Minnesota |
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12-20-20 | Browns v. Giants +6.5 | Top | 20-6 | Loss | -105 | 58 h 36 m | Show |
10* NY Giants (8:20 ET): Despite losing Monday night, the Browns remain tremendously overvalued in the marketplace. Yes, there is some uncertainty with the Giants’ QB situation as they may have to turn to Colt McCoy (a former Brown!) for this Sunday night game. But remember it was McCoy who helped engineer the shocking upset in Seattle two weeks ago. Calling the plays for the G-Men will be former Browns’ HC Freddie Kitchens. So there’s going to be PLENTY of motivation on that home sideline this week, in addition to the fact the Giants are trying to win the NFC East (currently tied for 1st w/ Washington at 5-7 SU). Cleveland is 9-4 SU, but six of its wins have been by seven points or less and the schedule has been relatively easy. Ironically, in defeat, they probably played one of their better games on MNF. I think the consensus coming off that wild 47-42 loss to the Ravens is that the Browns are “for real.” But beware of the fact they still have a negative point differential on the season and the defense has given up a total of 82 points the L2 weeks. As a favorite this season, the Browns are 7-1 SU, but just 3-5 ATS. As favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points, they are 5-0 SU, but 1-4 ATS. I just don’t this team should be this large of a road favorite. In fact, my own power ratings call this game a pick ‘em! The Giants are 8-3 ATS (though only 3-8 SU) as underdogs this season. They were on a 4-game win streak before getting blown out by Arizona (26-7) last week. That singular result seems to have greatly affected this spread and I’m not sure why. The Browns have not won a game by more than six points since October 11th. During that 4-game win streak, the G-Men were giving up an average of just 16.5 PPG. The 26 pts they allowed last week were the most in any game since Week 5. They’ve allowed more than 26 only twice all season. Take the points. 10* NY Giants |
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12-20-20 | Chiefs v. Saints +3 | Top | 32-29 | Push | 0 | 54 h 41 m | Show |
8* New Orleans (4:25 ET): The Chiefs are living dangerously. They’ve won five consecutive one score games, but have not covered the spread in any of them. This reminds me of last year’s Super Bowl run where they fell behind by double digits in every playoff game, only to come out ahead every time. Of course, the difference is that they covered the spread in all those games. Normally, I might see a 5-game ATS losing streak as a time to “buy low,” but being a road favorite against the Saints seems to be the antithesis of “buying low.” Rather it’s the other side I want to invest in as this seems to be a steal. For the record, New Orleans was going to be an underdog in this game even before they were upset last week in Philadelphia. That shocking defeat to an Eagles team starting a rookie QB (1st career start) hasn’t seemed to affect this line much. Surprisingly, as of press time at least, nor has the impending return of Drew Brees. I just think this is an incredible value on a Saints team - with or without Brees in the lineup. They’d won nine in a row prior to last week and were widely considered to be the best team in the NFC. The Saints are 8-1 SU and ATS as underdogs since 2018 including a 38-3 win at Tampa Bay last month. That was the only time New Orleans has been a dog in 2020. Even with Taysom Hill as the starter, I would have loved this line. But now it’s the HOF Brees under center. We’re also getting arguably the league’s best defense. If there’s one defense I’d trust to slow down Patrick Mahomes, it would be this one as the Saints are allowing just 20.4 PPG this year. Going into last week’s game vs. Philly (where I cashed the Over), the Saints had allowed just two offensive touchdowns in their past five games. It’s almost unheard of to be getting a Brees-led Saints team as a home underdog. Take the points. 8* New Orleans |
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Bryan Power NFL Top Sides Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-13-22 | Rams -4 v. Bengals | Top | 23-20 | Loss | -110 | 152 h 17 m | Show |
01-30-22 | 49ers v. Rams -3.5 | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 31 m | Show |
01-30-22 | Bengals v. Chiefs -6.5 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -130 | 7 h 32 m | Show |
01-23-22 | Bills +2.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 36-42 | Loss | -113 | 99 h 24 m | Show |
01-17-22 | Cardinals v. Rams -3.5 | Top | 11-34 | Win | 100 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
01-16-22 | 49ers v. Cowboys -2.5 | Top | 23-17 | Loss | -125 | 43 h 21 m | Show |
01-09-22 | Chargers -3 v. Raiders | Top | 32-35 | Loss | -106 | 53 h 37 m | Show |
01-09-22 | 49ers +4.5 v. Rams | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 27 h 28 m | Show |
01-09-22 | Steelers +5 v. Ravens | Top | 16-13 | Win | 100 | 44 h 26 m | Show |
01-08-22 | Chiefs v. Broncos +11 | Top | 28-24 | Win | 100 | 25 h 19 m | Show |
01-02-22 | Vikings v. Packers -13 | Top | 10-37 | Win | 100 | 27 h 49 m | Show |
01-02-22 | Lions +7.5 v. Seahawks | Top | 29-51 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 53 m | Show |
01-02-22 | Texans v. 49ers -12 | Top | 7-23 | Win | 100 | 23 h 34 m | Show |
01-02-22 | Eagles v. Washington Football Team +5 | Top | 20-16 | Win | 100 | 19 h 28 m | Show |
12-26-21 | Broncos +1 v. Raiders | Top | 13-17 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 40 m | Show |
12-26-21 | Jaguars +2 v. Jets | Top | 21-26 | Loss | -103 | 4 h 1 m | Show |
12-26-21 | Rams -3 v. Vikings | Top | 30-23 | Win | 100 | 3 h 55 m | Show |
12-26-21 | Bills +1 v. Patriots | Top | 33-21 | Win | 100 | 3 h 30 m | Show |
12-25-21 | Colts v. Cardinals -1 | Top | 22-16 | Loss | -120 | 26 h 19 m | Show |
12-21-21 | Seahawks v. Rams -6.5 | Top | 10-20 | Win | 100 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
12-20-21 | Raiders v. Browns -3 | Top | 16-14 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 4 m | Show |
12-19-21 | Packers v. Ravens +7 | Top | 31-30 | Win | 100 | 8 h 9 m | Show |
12-19-21 | Texans v. Jaguars -4.5 | Top | 30-16 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 44 m | Show |
12-18-21 | Patriots v. Colts -2 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
12-16-21 | Chiefs v. Chargers +3 | Top | 34-28 | Loss | -101 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
12-12-21 | Bears +12 v. Packers | Top | 30-45 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 35 m | Show |
12-12-21 | Giants +10 v. Chargers | Top | 21-37 | Loss | -122 | 18 h 41 m | Show |
12-12-21 | Falcons v. Panthers -2.5 | Top | 29-21 | Loss | -113 | 15 h 23 m | Show |
12-12-21 | Seahawks v. Texans +9 | Top | 33-13 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 3 m | Show |
12-09-21 | Steelers v. Vikings -3 | Top | 28-36 | Win | 100 | 29 h 23 m | Show |
12-06-21 | Patriots v. Bills -2.5 | Top | 14-10 | Loss | -122 | 10 h 38 m | Show |
12-05-21 | Broncos +10 v. Chiefs | Top | 9-22 | Loss | -116 | 29 h 40 m | Show |
12-05-21 | Cardinals v. Bears +7.5 | Top | 33-22 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 21 m | Show |
12-05-21 | Chargers v. Bengals -3 | Top | 41-22 | Loss | -104 | 21 h 21 m | Show |
11-28-21 | Browns +3.5 v. Ravens | Top | 10-16 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 52 m | Show |
11-28-21 | Rams -1 v. Packers | Top | 28-36 | Loss | -119 | 22 h 57 m | Show |
11-28-21 | Chargers v. Broncos +3 | Top | 13-28 | Win | 100 | 22 h 36 m | Show |
11-28-21 | Titans +7.5 v. Patriots | Top | 13-36 | Loss | -125 | 19 h 32 m | Show |
11-25-21 | Bills v. Saints +6.5 | Top | 31-6 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 4 m | Show |
11-21-21 | Cardinals v. Seahawks +2 | Top | 23-13 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 30 m | Show |
11-21-21 | Packers v. Vikings +1.5 | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 39 h 44 m | Show |
11-21-21 | 49ers v. Jaguars +6.5 | Top | 30-10 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 6 m | Show |
11-21-21 | Saints v. Eagles -1.5 | Top | 29-40 | Win | 100 | 29 h 5 m | Show |
11-15-21 | Rams v. 49ers +3.5 | Top | 10-31 | Win | 100 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
11-14-21 | Chiefs v. Raiders +2.5 | Top | 41-14 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 21 m | Show |
11-14-21 | Seahawks +3.5 v. Packers | Top | 0-17 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 26 m | Show |
11-11-21 | Ravens v. Dolphins +7.5 | Top | 10-22 | Win | 100 | 29 h 23 m | Show |
11-07-21 | Chargers v. Eagles +2 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -110 | 98 h 58 m | Show |
11-07-21 | Texans +6.5 v. Dolphins | Top | 9-17 | Loss | -105 | 71 h 22 m | Show |
11-07-21 | Broncos +10 v. Cowboys | Top | 30-16 | Win | 100 | 71 h 22 m | Show |
10-31-21 | Cowboys v. Vikings +2.5 | Top | 20-16 | Loss | -114 | 102 h 48 m | Show |
10-31-21 | Bucs v. Saints +5.5 | Top | 27-36 | Win | 100 | 76 h 0 m | Show |
10-31-21 | Patriots +6 v. Chargers | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 98 h 32 m | Show |
10-31-21 | Panthers +3 v. Falcons | Top | 19-13 | Win | 100 | 94 h 29 m | Show |
10-28-21 | Packers v. Cardinals -6 | Top | 24-21 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 26 m | Show |
10-24-21 | Washington Football Team +9 v. Packers | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -123 | 43 h 53 m | Show |
10-21-21 | Broncos v. Browns -1.5 | Top | 14-17 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
10-18-21 | Bills -5.5 v. Titans | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 37 m | Show |
10-17-21 | Cowboys v. Patriots +4 | Top | 35-29 | Loss | -107 | 102 h 8 m | Show |
10-17-21 | Cardinals v. Browns -2.5 | Top | 37-14 | Loss | -120 | 102 h 48 m | Show |
10-17-21 | Vikings -1 v. Panthers | Top | 34-28 | Win | 100 | 99 h 44 m | Show |
10-14-21 | Bucs v. Eagles +7.5 | Top | 28-22 | Win | 100 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
10-10-21 | Bills +3 v. Chiefs | Top | 38-20 | Win | 100 | 102 h 33 m | Show |
10-10-21 | Eagles +3 v. Panthers | Top | 21-18 | Win | 100 | 47 h 18 m | Show |
10-10-21 | Saints -2 v. Washington Football Team | Top | 33-22 | Win | 100 | 27 h 14 m | Show |
10-03-21 | Bucs v. Patriots +7 | Top | 19-17 | Win | 100 | 37 h 38 m | Show |
10-03-21 | Steelers +6.5 v. Packers | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -101 | 33 h 43 m | Show |
10-03-21 | Titans v. Jets +6.5 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 29 h 19 m | Show |
09-30-21 | Jaguars +7.5 v. Bengals | Top | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 28 h 30 m | Show |
09-26-21 | Jets +10.5 v. Broncos | Top | 0-26 | Loss | -112 | 19 h 30 m | Show |
09-26-21 | Dolphins +4 v. Raiders | Top | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 18 h 29 m | Show |
09-26-21 | Washington Football Team +7 v. Bills | Top | 21-43 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 26 m | Show |
09-26-21 | Cardinals v. Jaguars +8 | Top | 31-19 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 25 m | Show |
09-20-21 | Lions v. Packers -11.5 | Top | 17-35 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
09-19-21 | Chiefs v. Ravens +4 | Top | 35-36 | Win | 100 | 20 h 10 m | Show |
09-19-21 | Vikings +3.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 33-34 | Win | 100 | 16 h 59 m | Show |
09-19-21 | Falcons +13 v. Bucs | Top | 25-48 | Loss | -109 | 16 h 59 m | Show |
09-19-21 | 49ers v. Eagles +3 | Top | 17-11 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
09-19-21 | Broncos v. Jaguars +6 | Top | 23-13 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
09-16-21 | Giants v. Washington Football Team -3.5 | Top | 29-30 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
09-12-21 | Browns +5.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 29-33 | Win | 100 | 8 h 40 m | Show |
09-12-21 | Vikings -3 v. Bengals | Top | 24-27 | Loss | -106 | 43 h 4 m | Show |
09-12-21 | 49ers v. Lions +9 | Top | 41-33 | Win | 100 | 43 h 4 m | Show |
02-07-21 | Chiefs v. Bucs +3.5 | Top | 9-31 | Win | 100 | 288 h 31 m | Show |
01-24-21 | Bills v. Chiefs -3 | Top | 24-38 | Win | 100 | 75 h 26 m | Show |
01-16-21 | Ravens +2.5 v. Bills | Top | 3-17 | Loss | -100 | 76 h 12 m | Show |
01-16-21 | Rams +7 v. Packers | Top | 18-32 | Loss | -125 | 73 h 32 m | Show |
01-09-21 | Bucs v. Washington Football Team +9 | Top | 31-23 | Win | 100 | 56 h 42 m | Show |
01-09-21 | Rams +3.5 v. Seahawks | Top | 30-20 | Win | 100 | 29 h 31 m | Show |
01-09-21 | Colts +7 v. Bills | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 49 h 32 m | Show |
01-03-21 | Seahawks v. 49ers +6.5 | Top | 26-23 | Win | 100 | 53 h 53 m | Show |
01-03-21 | Titans v. Texans +7.5 | Top | 41-38 | Win | 100 | 53 h 53 m | Show |
01-03-21 | Packers v. Bears +4.5 | Top | 35-16 | Loss | -120 | 19 h 40 m | Show |
12-28-20 | Bills v. Patriots +7 | Top | 38-9 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
12-27-20 | Colts v. Steelers +2.5 | Top | 24-28 | Win | 100 | 26 h 40 m | Show |
12-27-20 | Browns v. Jets +10 | Top | 16-23 | Win | 100 | 26 h 40 m | Show |
12-26-20 | 49ers +5 v. Cardinals | Top | 20-12 | Win | 100 | 50 h 52 m | Show |
12-25-20 | Vikings +7.5 v. Saints | Top | 33-52 | Loss | -136 | 45 h 27 m | Show |
12-20-20 | Browns v. Giants +6.5 | Top | 20-6 | Loss | -105 | 58 h 36 m | Show |
12-20-20 | Chiefs v. Saints +3 | Top | 32-29 | Push | 0 | 54 h 41 m | Show |