Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-20-20 | Bucs v. Falcons +6 | Top | 31-27 | Win | 100 | 50 h 17 m | Show |
8* Atlanta (1:00 ET): Atlanta has been a home dog only two other times this season. I took them the first time around and that ended up being a 43-6 thrashing of Las Vegas, their best performance of the 2020 season. The Dirty Birds weren’t as fortunate the following week (+3 in a 21-16 loss), but that was against the Saints. Tampa Bay is closer to New Orleans than they are to Las Vegas in terms of talent, but still I don’t see how Tom Brady and the Bucs deserve to be favored by more in Atlanta than New Orleans was. The current line is much higher than the look ahead line was and I’m seeing value on the Falcons here. The Bucs got a late season bye and really needed it as they were off B2B losses heading into LW’s game vs. Minnesota. The week off seemed to do them some good as they beat the Vikings 26-14 as six-point favorites. However, they were actually outgained in the contest (335-303) and had 10 fewer first downs than Minnesota. A potential major problem for TB this week is that all three specialists (kicker, punter, long-snapper) are on the COVID-19 list. Special teams miscues often end up costing a team wins (just ask the Chargers!) and don’t be surprised if the Bucs make one on Sunday. Also, the Bucs’ starting left tackle (Donovan Smith) won’t play here and RB Ronald Jones is questionable. A few things to keep in mind with the Falcons here. One is that despite a 4-9 SU record, they have actually outscored their opponents this season! Matt Ryan is 15-7 ATS all-time as a home dog. Interim HC Raheem Morris probably wants to keep this job on a permanent basis, so I don’t see this team quitting. They could have beaten the Chargers last week if not for TWO late Ryan interceptions. Atlanta is 4-4 SU under Morris. Take the points. 8* Atlanta |
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12-20-20 | Patriots v. Dolphins -1 | Top | 12-22 | Win | 100 | 50 h 17 m | Show |
9* Miami (1:00 ET): Is there something I’m missing here? Because I feel the Dolphins are being severely undervalued in this spot, a key AFC East clash. Not that I mind. I’ve cashed Miami multiple times in 2020, the most notable win was obviously my 10* Game of the Year when they upset the Rams 28-17 here at home. Since their bye week last season, Brian Flores’ team has gone a league-best 19-6 ATS. The ‘Fins are 10-3 ATS this season, have covered eight of their last nine and were a winner for me last week +7.5 against the best team in the league, Kansas City. I feel they should be about a touchdown favorite here. This clearly isn’t the same New England team we’ve grown accustomed to seeing under Bill Belichick. The Patriots are just 6-7 SU and while technically not out of the playoff race, their reign of dominance over the AFC East (won division 17 of the last 19 years, including 11 straight) figures to end, possibly as early as Sunday. Even if the Pats were to win their final three games, it’s highly doubtful they’ll make the playoffs. It’s been awhile, so let me remind you that the last time we saw this team, they were thoroughly dominated in a 24-3 loss to the Rams. So much has changed since these teams met in Week 1. New England won that first game 21-11, but Tua Tagovailoa is now the Miami QB and he’s led his team to a 4-2 WL record. The Dolphins are 4-1 SU/ATS as favorites this season and now they get to play host. The Patriots are just 2-5 SU/ATS on the road and one of those SU wins was by three against the Jets. I know all about Belchick’s record vs. rookie QBs (11-0 since 2012), but this isn’t the same NE team. The Dolphins are 6-1 ATS vs. teams with losing records and the Patriots are 0-3 ATS when playing with more than six days off between games. So much for rest. Miami is better and deserves to be favored. 9* Miami |
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12-20-20 | Seahawks v. Washington Football Team +6 | Top | 20-15 | Win | 100 | 50 h 17 m | Show |
8* Washington (1:00 ET): So Washington is forced to start Dwayne Haskins this week as Alex Smith is injured. That’s a bit of a bummer for a team that has really come into its own of late with four consecutive wins and covers. I believe this is the team that will win the moribund NFC East. Were Smith starting here, I would make Washington the favorite here. They beat Pittsburgh (who was unbeaten at the time) on the road two weeks ago and it’s not like Seattle is immune from a shocking loss. Two weeks ago, they fell at home to the Giants, 17-12 as 12.5-point chalk. The Seahawks rebounded from that upset loss by smashing the Jets 40-3 last week. But that doesn’t really affect our view of Russell Wilson and company. Everybody beats the Jets. As good as Wilson and the Seahawks’ defense has looked this season, they’re up against a defense that’s allowed a total of just 57 points the last four games. That’s just over 14.0 per game as rookie Chase Young has looked phenomenal of late for the Football team. Seattle’s RT Brandon Snell has been in and out of the lineup recently, so protecting Wilson could be an issue here. Washington’s offense actually gained less than 200 total yards last week, but they still won 23-15 against San Francisco. While not a “true” road win (was played in Arizona), they’ll take it. Seattle is just 3-3 SU on the road this season and almost all of their games (save for LW) end up being close. Going back to the start of last season, 17 of the Seahawks’ 21 victories have been by one possession! They’ve been outgained this year. The Football Team’s defense will carry Haskins and keep this one closer than expected. The Seahawks have failed to cover four straight road games and are 0-3 ATS L3 as a road favorite. 8* Washington |
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12-19-20 | Bills v. Broncos +6 | Top | 48-19 | Loss | -104 | 30 h 48 m | Show |
10* Denver (4:30 ET): I have to concede that the Broncos are NOT one of my favorite teams this season. They are the only team in the league that hasn’t been favored in a single game all year and they’ve got the 5th worst point differential. Only the Bengals, Cowboys, Jaguars and Jets - who are a collective 7-44-1 SU - have been outscored by a larger margin this season. That being said, this would seem like a prime opportunity to “sell high” on the Bills as they are coming off a win over the Steelers and 5-0 ATS their L5 games. Despite that ATS win streak, my power rankings indicate this line should be +3.5. I was NOT as high on Buffalo as most were coming into this season. I’ll admit that I was wrong in that regard as this very much looks like a legit contender in the AFC right now. But in terms of point differential, the Bills remain outside the top ten (in the league) and have benefited by going 5-1 SU in one-score games. They still don’t really have the statistical profile you’d expect from a 10-3 team. What they have done is handle their business at home (5-0 SU when favored). But on the road, they are just 1-3 ATS when favored. The Broncos are 0-6 ATS against the Bills since 2007, but this is the first time they’ll face them with Drew Lock as the starting QB. Lock is 10-5 ATS in his NFL career, leading Denver to cash in each of his L3 starts. After leading a near upset of Kansas City two weeks ago, Lock had his best game as a pro vs. Carolina last week as he had a 4-0 TD-INT ratio in the 32-27 victory. This team is simply much better with Lock under center. I know the Denver defense has some serious issues at CB right now, but they remain #1 in the league in red zone efficiency and should stymie Buffalo enough to keep this one within the number. 10* Denver |
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12-17-20 | Chargers +3.5 v. Raiders | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 32 h 47 m | Show |
10* LA Chargers (8:25 ET): From the oddsmakers perspective, the Chargers “should” have a better won-loss record than the Raiders this year. LA has been favored in six games while Las Vegas has been the chalk in only four. The Chargers’ main problem, which is nothing new, has been a failure to win close games. They are just 3-7 SU in games decided by 7 points or less, though they did prevail in one last week 20-17 against Atlanta. While the Bolts have yet to win as an underdog this year and last won a division game in 2018, the close win last week gives me belief they can pull through here. Take the points. The Raiders’ recent form has been lousy with their only win in the L4 games coming by three points against the 0-13 Jets. If you recall, I faded them in that spot. They would have lost the game outright had it not been for the ineptitude of (now fired) Jets’ DC Gregg Williams. Speaking of bad defense, the Raiders have given up an average of 37.5 PPG these L4 weeks! Sunday marked the third time this season they allowed more than 40 points and the Colts also rolled up 200+ yards rushing AND passing. The Chargers have one of the league’s better offenses as they are top 10 in total yards and #4 in passing. Unlike the Raiders, the Chargers have outgained their opponents this season. The first time these AFC West rivals met very much embodied the kind of season it’s been for LA. They outgained the Raiders 440-320, yet lost on the scoreboard 31-26 when the potential GW TD was overturned. QB Justin Herbert threw for over 300 yards and should do so again here. The Chargers’ YTD point differential is quite comparable to the Raiders despite the disparate records. You have to figure that “elusive” division victory is coming soon for the Chargers and I say “why not here?” as this line should be read as a huge warning signal about the Raiders, who have failed to cover the L2 times they’ve been favored. 10* LA Chargers |
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12-14-20 | Ravens v. Browns +3 | Top | 47-42 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 41 m | Show |
10* Cleveland (8:15 ET): While I remain HIGHLY skeptical of the Browns’ long-term fortune, due to a -15 point differential and 6-0 SU record in games decided by 7 pts or less (lucky!), I’ve got them here as a home dog vs. the Ravens on MNF. Certainly many are going to point to the way Baltimore dismantled the Browns back in Week 1. However, that 38-6 win and cover (as 7-pt favorites) seems like “forever ago” and the Ravens simply have not been as dominant in 2020 as they were a season ago. You’ll want to take the points here. Baltimore had lost three in a row (all by 6 points or less) before beating a Dallas team that put up little effort on Tuesday. I don’t think we should put much stock in a win over the Cowboys at this point. The Browns aren’t the Cowboys, that’s for sure. Last week saw Baker Mayfield play perhaps the best half of his NFL career, leading his team to a ridiculous 38-7 halftime advantage. The final score of 41-35 is misleading to say the least as the Titans scored two touchdowns in the final two minutes. Mayfield had a career-high 4 TDs in the 1H last week. He hasn’t thrown an interception since Odell Beckham Jr was lost to a season-ending injury. That was six games ago and Mayfield had an 11-0 TD-INT ratio since the Beckham injury. The Browns have not trailed in three of their last four games and the one they did (Jacksonville) saw them down for only a brief time. This will be Baltimore’s third game in 12 days and second in a row on a short week. We saw how Pittsburgh looked last night in the same scenario. 10* Cleveland |
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12-13-20 | Steelers +2.5 v. Bills | Top | 15-26 | Loss | -102 | 94 h 29 m | Show |
9* Pittsburgh (1:00 ET): I view this as a tremendous “buy low” spot on the Steelers. That may sound strange considering this team has lost just one time all season. But that loss occurred last Monday, the same day Buffalo ended its long MNF losing streak with a 34-24 victory against San Francisco. The Steelers have certainly underwhelmed of late, not just with loss to Washington last Monday, but also with a less than stellar showing against what amounted to the Ravens’ backups two weeks ago. But they are 11-1, have one of the best defenses in football and should NOT be an underdog here. My power ratings were more in step with the lookahead line for this game, which had the Steelers as slight favorites. Shortly after the MNF results came in, the line quickly “jumped the fence” with the Bills now favored. I don’t buy it. Despite being 9-3, Buffalo doesn’t even have a top 10 point differential. Five of their wins have been in one-score games and remember that the 49ers team they just defeated was playing a lot of backups and the game WASN’T in San Francisco. The Bills are 1-7 ATS playing on a short week since 2016. Lots of other trends favor the road team here. Mike Tomlin is 17-5 ATS as a road dog against a team with a winning record. He is on a 10-2 ATS run as an underdog of any kind with eight outright wins. Pittsburgh is 8-4 ATS this season, the second best such record in the league. While Buffalo has covered four straight themselves, their pass-happy offense doesn’t figure to fare so well against what is probably the best pass defense in the entire league. The L3 weeks have seen the Steelers allow an average of just 247.7 YPG. 9* Pittsburgh |
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12-13-20 | Cowboys v. Bengals +4 | Top | 30-7 | Loss | -110 | 87 h 10 m | Show |
8* Cincinnati (1:00 ET): So the thought process here is pretty simple. Unless they’re playing the Jets, Dallas should not be a favorite against anybody, let alone on the road. America’s Team has really underperformed in Mike McCarthy’s first season, going a league-worst 2-10 ATS. Obviously, Cowboys’ fans can point a finger to the Dak Prescott injury, but the team was already struggling before the QB was lost for the season. McCarthy was a terrible hire and the Cowboys’ three wins this year have come by a combined seven points, none by more than a field goal. So yeah, take the points here. The Bengals also lost their starting QB to a season-ending injury and it may be a long-time before we see Joe Burrow again. That’s too bad because Cincinnati was pretty competitive with Burrow under center. While the immediate future may not be looking too rosy in Cincy, the team has remained competitive even without its rookie QB. Two weeks ago, I took them and they covered in a 2-point loss to the Giants. Last week saw them hang in against the 8-4 Dolphins, even taking a 7-6 lead into halftime. The team is 6-2 ATS this season when coming off a SU loss and now they are back home where they’ve covered four in a row. The big story of this game will be Andy Dalton returning to Cincinnati. But for me, it’s the opportunity to play against Dallas as a favorite. The ‘Boys have been favored five times this season and are 0-5 ATS in those games, losing three of those games outright. This is the just the 2nd time they’ve been favored since the Prescott injury (lost 41-16 to Washington on Thanksgiving). The run defense (167.8 YPG allowed) is the worst the league has seen in a decade and just gave up almost 300 yards to Baltimore last week. That game was on Tuesday and the Cowboys are 3-15 ATS since 2012 when playing w/ six or fewer days' rest. The Bengals defense has held 4 of the last 5 opponents to 20 points or less and the team has three losses by a FG or less. 8* Cincinnati |
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12-13-20 | Texans v. Bears +1.5 | Top | 7-36 | Win | 100 | 87 h 9 m | Show |
8* Chicago (1:00 ET): That 5-1 start is a distant memory for the Bears, who have now lost six straight. The future of HC Matt Nagy in the Windy City is very much in doubt, even though he took this team to a division championship just two years ago. But at least he has Mitchell Trubisky! Wait, what? While Bears fans are probably still salty the team chose Trubisky instead of the opposing QB this week (DeShaun Watson), they can rest easy knowing the team has averaged a solid 25.8 PPG in Trubisky starts this season. As much as the Bears have struggled on the offensive side of the ball, they’re better with Trubisky under center and facing a terrible defense this week. Houston’s season has gone very differently than Chicago, though both now sport similar records. The Texans opened 0-4 with three of those losses coming to Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Kansas City. They’re 4-4 SU since the 0-4 start, but two of the wins were against Jacksonville. As I already mentioned, the Texans defense - even with JJ Watt - is abysmal. They are 30th in both yards allowed and efficiency. Losing a heartbreaker at home to Indianapolis last week (fumbled inside the Colts’ 5-yard line on the potential go-ahead drive) does this team no favors. I have these rated pretty evenly, so even with the Bears’ struggles over the last two months, I don’t think they should be an underdog at home this week. Houston isn’t just 4-8 SU, they are also 4-8 ATS. The Bears’ defense has been bad the L2 weeks, but the Texans offense just lost WR Will Fuller to a suspension and WR Brandin Cooks is questionable with foot and neck injuries. Four of the Bears’ last five games have been decided by one possession, so the fact they’ve lost all of them is a case of bad luck. This is a winnable game. 8* Chicago |
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12-13-20 | Chiefs v. Dolphins +7.5 | Top | 33-27 | Win | 100 | 87 h 9 m | Show |
8* Miami (1:00 ET): No one seems to take the Dolphins very seriously, despite their 8-4 SU record. Normally, I’d also be skeptical of a team with that record if they’ve been outgained on a per game/play basis like the ‘Fins have. But did you know that Miami has the FOURTH best point differential in the league this season (+91!)? They were my 10* NFL Game of the Year back on November 1st and that ended up being an outright 28-17 win as three-point dogs against the Rams. This spot feels eerily similar. Kansas City is one of three teams with a better YTD point differential than the Dolphins. But they’ve been far from dominant of late. Each of their last four wins have been by six points or less and they are 0-4 ATS in those games. Those four wins have been by a total of 15 points and they’ve trailed at halftime in three of them. Last week, as a double digit home favorite, they trailed a bad Denver team for much of the first three quarters and scored just one offensive TD. While Miami’s offense is hardly explosive, they can lean on a defense that has produced a turnover in 18 consecutive games (longest active streak in the league) and allowed the second fewest points in the league this season. They’ve allowed just 10 total points in the L2 games and 21 or less in six of the last seven contests. They’ve covered six of those seven games and are a league-best 18-6 ATS since their Week 5 bye last season. This is a game the Dolphins very much can win and really need for their playoff hopes. Take the points. 8* Miami |
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12-06-20 | Patriots v. Chargers +1 | Top | 45-0 | Loss | -110 | 95 h 31 m | Show |
10* LA Chargers (4:25 ET): The Chargers were “spared” what would have been yet another close loss last week as QB Justin Herbert was stuffed at the goal line on the final play. That cost me a cover though (would have been a 6-0 Sunday!). Thus it ended up being a 24-14 loss in Buffalo (I did cash the Under), dropping the Chargers to 3-8 SU on the year. They did outgain the Bills (ever so slightly), 367-332. Seven of those eight losses have been by eight points or less with four of them seeing LA blow a double digit lead! I realize you could say this most years, but the Chargers really are better than their record. The Patriots really had no business winning last week. The offense gained only 179 total yards at a pathetic 3.5 yards per play. This offense - with Cam Newton at the helm - just isn’t very good. Over the L8 weeks, New England has scored more than 23 points only one time and that was against the winless Jets. Though the market continues to show them respect (Belichick factor?), I think it’s important to realize the Pats are simply a below average football team right now. They’ve been outgained on the year - both per game and per play - and been outscored by 26 points. Newton has a 4-9 TD-INT ratio and will be missing his left tackle. Home field advantage may not mean much to the Chargers, especially this year, but they really should be at least a three-point favorite in this spot. This is a team that led the Chiefs, Bucs and Saints by double digits! The one bright spot of the season has been the play of rookie QB Justin Herbert, who is averaging over 300 YPG. RB Austin Ekler returned last week and had 129 total yards. The Patriots defense is giving up 7.6 yards per attempt, which ranks 31st. “Now or never” (for the Chargers) might seem a bit hyperbolic, but after five straight ATS losses, they really should win here. 10* LA Chargers |
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12-06-20 | Rams v. Cardinals +3 | Top | 38-28 | Loss | -115 | 94 h 11 m | Show |
9* Arizona (4:05 ET): When they were 5-2 SU, the Cardinals were looking like one of the real pleasant surprises in the league. I figured this would be an improved outfit in Kliff Kingsbury’s second season at the helm, but the last four weeks have been a bit concerning. The Cards have failed to cover four in a row and the lone SU win in that stretch came on a Hail Mary pass at home vs. Buffalo. Following a tough loss last week at New England, they return home this week and are underdogs in a key NFC West matchup. The Rams are 7-4 SU, one game ahead of Arizona for second place in the division. They too are off a loss as they fell 23-20 at home to San Francisco. In looking at the Rams’ home vs. road splits, the one thing that becomes apparent is that their defense seems to “fail to travel.” They are giving up 23.3 PPG on the road, not a bad number, but it’s a lot more than the 15.0 PPG they’re allowing at home. As a road favorite, the Rams are just 1-2 SU/ATS this season. They are 3-5 SU/ATS L8 games as a road fave of 3 pts or less. Also, take away the four games against the sorry NFC East and the Rams are just 3-3 SU overall this year. Arizona should have beaten New England last week, but missed the potential game-winning FG with under two minutes to go. That allowed the Patriots to go kick the GW. The Cardinals’ defense allowed just 179 yards. While both of these offenses have had success running the football, Arizona is 1st in yards per carry while the Rams are only 18th. I vehemently disagreed with the way the line moved in LA’s favor early in the week and think this is a great “buy low” spot on the Cardinals, who will be quite eager to beat Rams HC Sean McVay for the first time in seven tries. 9* Arizona |
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12-06-20 | Raiders v. Jets +9 | Top | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 91 h 7 m | Show |
8* NY Jets (1:00 ET): Yes, I’m taking the winless Jets (0-11) this week. My suspicions over Las Vegas were confirmed last week when they suffered an atrocious 43-6 loss in Atlanta. As someone who had the Falcons +3 and was quite confident about the bet, even I could not have fathomed that result. The game was never really competitive and the Raiders turning it over five times certainly didn’t help. Something I want to reiterate from last week is just how few times Las Vegas has been favored this season. This will be only the 4th time it's happened. They are lucky to be 6-5 SU considering they have a -27 pt differential. With so little positives emanating from the Jets’ side of things, this is obviously a clear fade on the Silver and Black. I just don’t think that the Raiders should be favored by this many points on the road, against anybody. This matchup is obviously the “litmus test” for that assessment, but it’s worth noting that my own personal power ratings say this spread should only be -2.5! This will be the first time the Raiders close as a road favorite of 7 pts or more since 2002, which was the year they went to the Super Bowl with Rich Gannon as the MVP. That was a LONG time ago. Let’s try and pick out SOME positives with the Jets, shall we? RB Frank Gore should have a big game this week facing a suspect Raiders’ run defense. QB Sam Darnold, who has not thrown a TD pass in his last 19 quarters of action, is due. Before losing 20-3 to Miami last week, New York had covered three of four with losses to Buffalo, New England and the Chargers all coming by 8 points or fewer. With just one home game left after this week, this may be the Jets’ best shot at avoiding a winless season. No one wants to go 0-16, so I expect effort. Take the points. 8* NY Jets |
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11-30-20 | Seahawks v. Eagles +6 | Top | 23-17 | Push | 0 | 37 h 37 m | Show |
10* Philadelphia (8:15 ET): I had tremendous success taking home dogs on Sunday and here’s another one where I see a ton of value. Seattle may be regarded as one of the league’s better teams, but they tend to be involved in a lot of close games. So far, seven of their 10 games have been decided by one score. This is a continuation from last season where they went an extremely fortunate 11-3 SU in one-score games. That good fortune has carried over to this year with a 5-2 SU record in those games. Bottom line: the Seahawks may be winning, but they usually win close. Normally, if a team was a 3-6-1, they’d already be thinking about next season. But because the Eagles (who have that record) play in the NFC East, they are very much still alive for a division title and playoff berth. This despite B2B “ugly” losses to the Giants and Browns. But both of those came on the road. Since losing to the Rams 39-17 back in Week 2, the Eagles are 2-1-1 SU here in Philly with the lone loss coming by two points against the Ravens. That loss to the Ravens was the only other time this season where they were a home dog and they covered the spread. Seattle is far from invincible when they hit the road. Their record away from home this season is just 2-3 straight up and against the spread. And let’s not forget just how awful the Seahawks’ pass defense has been. They are allowing 343.7 YPG through the air, most in the league. So I can see Eagles QB Carson Wentz, who has struggled, having his best game in a while here. Even though they are 7-3 SU, Seattle has been outgained by their opponents this season. The Eagles are actually even w/ theirs on a per play basis. Take the points. 10* Philadelphia |
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11-29-20 | Chiefs v. Bucs +3.5 | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 27 h 44 m | Show |
10* Tampa Bay (4:25 ET): The Bucs suffered another primetime loss on Monday, this one against the Rams 27-24. Primetime has accounted for three of the team’s four losses this season and they are 0-4 ATS in such games, the lone win being a nail-biter over the 3-7 Giants. So Tom Brady and company have to be pretty happy to be playing in the 4 PM (ET) window this week, even if the opponent is Kansas City. When NOT playing in primetime this year, Brady is 6-1 SU with the only loss coming back in Week 1 (at New Orleans). This will also be just the third time this season that Tampa Bay is an underdog. The first was that Week 1 loss in New Orleans. The other was an outright win against Green Bay here at home. Brady is 10-1 ATS with nine outright wins as a home dog in his illustrious career. That earlier win against the Packers marked just the 4th time in the last 15 seasons that Brady has been a home dog. He’s won outright all four times. Brady is also 15-8 ATS coming off a Monday night game. I think this is a great value as my power rankings still say TB should be a slight favorite here. Kansas City brings in a vaunted reputation as the defending Super Bowl champs. They are 9-1 SU this season and just avenged their only defeat by beating the Raiders last Sunday night. But they needed a last minute TD to get the win in Vegas and it was the second straight win by four points or less. The defense allowed 31 points to both the Panthers and Raiders. They’ve been particularly susceptible against the pass. The Bucs’ defense, which is outstanding against the run (#1 in the league), can make the Chiefs’ offense one-dimensional. Take the points. 10* Tampa Bay |
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11-29-20 | Raiders v. Falcons +3 | Top | 6-43 | Win | 103 | 23 h 21 m | Show |
8* Atlanta (1:00 ET): After playing well in front of a national television audience, the Raiders were the recipients of some “early money” this week, getting bet up to the current price. We had ‘em last Sunday night when they covered against the Chiefs and almost took the game outright. But they lost, 35-31, and what’s interesting here is that this is just the third time all season Las Vegas has been favored! Atlanta has been a giant disappointment in 2020 (already fired their HC), but I don’t think they should be a dog here. The Falcons were off their bye last week and facing a QB making his first career start (Taysom Hill). But you can’t discount just how good the Saints are playing right now. Atlanta ended up losing 24-9, dropping them to 3-7 SU on the year. What was so disappointing about LW’s loss is that the Falcons had been playing better before the bye. They’d won three of four games with the only loss coming by 1 point. Looking at the remaining schedule, which is just brutal, this is probably the Falcons’ best shot at picking up another win for interim HC Raheem Morris. I firmly believe that bettors have overreacted to Las Vegas; close call vs. Kansas City last week. Remember that game was at home. That the Raiders have been favored only twice so far is a clear indication that they have overachieved. Factoring in the fact this game is in Atlanta, I’ve got it rated as a toss-up. The Falcons haven’t been a home dog this season. Matt Ryan, who was sacked eight times by the Saints, should have a much better game this week against the #28 rated pass defense. Also, Las Vegas has the 2nd fewest sacks in the league with 11. The Falcons are better than their record while the Raiders (who have been outgained by their opponents) aren’t as good as theirs. 8* Atlanta |
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11-29-20 | Giants v. Bengals +6.5 | Top | 19-17 | Win | 100 | 23 h 21 m | Show |
8* Cincinnati (1:00 ET): Ok, so the Bengals’ season appears pretty much done. They are 2-7-1 SU and now have to go the rest of the way without starting QB Joe Burrow. They lost the #1 overall draft pick for the remainder of the season last week in Washington. Shell-shocked, they were shutout in the second half and lost 24-9. It should be pointed out that they were winning going into the break. This line has seen the most movement of any on the board this week as Cincinnnati was to be a short home favorite. With Burrow out and backup Brandon Allen to start in his place, the Giants are now a significant road favorite. The Giants should never be a road favorite of this size. Against anybody. I don’t care if Burrow is out; I don’t think he’s worth this much to the pointspread. While New York has been a covering machine on the road as of late (8-0 ATS L8), they haven’t been a road favorite of more than four points in almost four years. This is the 1st time since 2012 that a team with a win percentage of .333 or worse is a road favorite of more than a field goal. Since 1990, such teams are just 3-7 STRAIGHT UP! As a reminder, the Giants’ SU record is 3-7 with two of those wins coming by a combined four points against Washington. With Burrow, the Bengals were pretty good at keeping games close. Four of their seven losses have come by five points or less. Two of the exceptions came against the Steelers and Ravens. The other was last week, but the good news is that Cincinnati is 5-1 ATS off a loss this year. Allen at least has starting experience in this league and is probably an upgrade over the team’s other backup, Ryan Finley. The Giants have zero wins outside the division this year. They are the ONLY team in the league w/o a 3-game win streak the L4 seasons. Take the points. 8* Cincinnati |
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11-29-20 | Browns v. Jaguars +7.5 | Top | 27-25 | Win | 100 | 23 h 20 m | Show |
8* Jacksonville (1:00 ET): So this probably could go one of two ways for the Jaguars. Either they pull an outright upset, or they get blown out. At 1-9 SU (that one win came in Wk 1), the Jags are turning to Mike Glennon at QB this week. It will be Glennon’s first NFL start in more than three years. It’s not an ideal spot to return to the starting role as the Jags will be missing numerous players - on both sides of the ball - due to COVID. But make no mistake about it, this play is a clear fade on Cleveland, who also has COVID issues. The Browns are a surprising 7-3 SU this year, but they’ve taken advantage of a very weak schedule. Even more damning is the fact they have a -23 point differential. That’s worse than the 3-7 Chargers, who have a -13 point differential. Cleveland has also been fortunate to go 4-0 SU in one-score games this season. Two of those wins have come the L2 weeks, 10-7 over Houston and 22-17 against Philadelphia. The offense has scored 22 points or less in 4 of the last 5 games, scoring 10 or less three times! This will also be the Browns’ first time playing on the road in November! Their last three games were all at home. If they close at -7, it will mark the first time they’ve been favored by that many on the road since Bill Belichick was roaming the sidelines in 1995! Baker Mayfield, who I believe to be a below-average NFL QB, is just 7-11-2 ATS as a favorite in his pro career. That includes 1-5 on the road with four outright losses. By the way, the Browns are just 1-4 ATS their L5 games overall. They will be without five players, one of them Myles Garrett, and haven’t been able to practice together much this week. Hold your nose and take the points. 8* Jacksonville |
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11-29-20 | Chargers +4.5 v. Bills | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 20 m | Show |
8* LA Chargers (1:00 ET): As I’ve harped on many times before, how a team performs in close games will largely dictate how the overall season goes. For further evidence of that, let’s look at the Chargers and Bills in 2020. Los Angeles has only been outscored by 13 points, but is 3-7 SU due to the fact they’ve lost 7 of 9 one-possession games. Meanwhile, Buffalo is 7-3 SU despite only a +7 point differential because they are 5-1 in one score games. The Chargers are better than their record while the reverse is true for the Bills. This is similar to the Raiders-Falcons game, so once again we’re taking the points. The Chargers are actually off a close WIN, though there was no reason for that game to be close. They held on to beat the winless Jets 34-28 after opening up a 31-13 lead in the second half. Holding leads has been a problem all season for the Lightning Bolts as they’ve lost four games in which they held a DD lead. That’s not good. But leading the likes of Kansas City, New Orleans and Tampa Bay by double digits shows this team has got talent. Rookie QB Justin Herbert has played great. The fact the team is a dog this week is appealing in that we’re “safe” were they to lose close again. But I expect them to win this week. Buffalo suffered its lone close loss of the season two weeks ago when Arizona completed a Hail Mary. They had a week off (bye) to reflect on letting that one get away. Bottom line though is that they were outgained by the Cardinals and gave up 453 yards. The Bills defense has taken a step back this season as it is giving up 6.1 yards per play. The Chargers rank 3rd (in the league!) in total offense. So far, Buffalo is just 2-2 SU when facing top five offenses. The Chargers are 9-4-2 ATS as a road underdog under HC Anthony Lynn and 46-21-5 ATS in the role since 2004. Herbert is 3-0 ATS as a dog of five or more points. This “smells” like an upset. 8* LA Chargers |
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11-26-20 | Washington Football Team v. Cowboys -2.5 | Top | 41-16 | Loss | -124 | 70 h 37 m | Show |
10* Dallas (4:30 ET): So the Cowboys came through in a major way on Sunday, winning outright at Minnesota, 31-28. In taking them plus the 7.5 points, I specifically cited the return of QB Andy Dalton as a reason for optimism. Dalton was pretty good as he threw three touchdowns including the game winner with 1:37 left. Now I’m wondering if these ‘Boys might actually have a shot at winning the NFC East. Everybody in this horrible division has just three victories, so all that’s happened to this point is irrelevant. “How ‘bout them Cowboys?” Of course, this game is equally important to Washington as they could end up being in first place by week’s end. They too are off a win, 20-9 over Cincinnati, and just like Dallas it was just their second in nine games. But when looking at the Football Team’s recent performances, some perspective needs to be added. While it was a close loss (30-27) at Detroit two weeks ago, they were actually down in that game 24-3. It was a similar story in a 20-19 loss to the Giants the week prior. There, they were down 20-3 at halftime. Then Sunday vs. the Bengals they were down at the half again (9-7), only to catch a HUGE break when Cincy QB Joe Burrow went down with a season-ending knee injury. The Bengals didn’t score again after Burrow left the game. Now this is a rematch from last month when Washington won 25-3 at home. Again though, some perspective needs to be provided. Dalton got hurt in that game and his replacement Ben DiNucci just wasn’t ready for “primetime.” I think it’s also interesting that the line for that game was a “pick ‘em.” Obviously, based on the final score, oddsmakers were going to adjust the number for this game. But I believe Dallas still needs to be a much bigger favorite. Washington is starting Alex Smith and has trailed by double digits in 8 of its 10 games this season! It’s amazing to say, but I think the Cowboys are underrated right now. 10* Dallas |
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11-26-20 | Texans v. Lions +3 | Top | 41-25 | Loss | -115 | 66 h 32 m | Show |
8* Detroit (12:30 ET): On Sunday, the Lions failed in their attempt to win back to back games for a second time this season. They were shutout, 20-0, by a Carolina defense that had just given up 46 points and 500+ yards the previous week. Oh yeah, the Panthers were also forced to start PJ Walker at QB, a “refugee” from the XFL! As embarrassing as that loss reads, I like Detroit’s chances of bouncing back on Thanksgiving. Relative to the lookahead line, this is a good value getting them as a home dog. Meanwhile, Houston is off a win, their first of the season against a team other than Jacksonville. They came from behind to beat New England 27-20 as 2.5-pt home dogs. What’s interesting here is that from a pointspread perspective, the Texans are now in the exact opposite role from last week when they saw the early money go in the Patriots’ direction. That set them up to be a solid value as a home dog. Now they are road favorites for just the second time in 2020. The first was at Jacksonville and there they failed to cover the spread, winning only 27-25 after holding off a late 2-point try. Prior to covering each of the L2 wks, the Texans were just 1-7 ATS this season. My own power rankings indicate that the Lions should still be favored here, despite what happened last week. They aren’t nearly as bad as they played last week. One bright spot was the defense, which held Carolina to just 7 pts in the 1st half and 17 total before a 3-yard drive resulted in a late FG. Matt Stafford and the offense are likely to turn things around this week against a Texans defense that is 31st (2nd to last) in yards allowed. The Lions have lost three games this season in which they held a double digit lead, so their record could be significantly better than it is. Houston was still outgained by New England last week and is just 7-14-2 ATS as a favorite the L3 seasons. Take the points. 8* Detroit |
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11-22-20 | Chiefs v. Raiders +7.5 | Top | 35-31 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
8* Las Vegas (8:20 ET): I get the revenge angle is in play (Chiefs lost 40-32 to the Raiders back in Week 5), but this spread is too high. The inflated number is almost certainly due to the revenge angle as oddmakers know everyone is going to want to bet the Chiefs in this spot. But you need to consider that Kansas City was “only” a 10-point favorite when they LOST to the Raiders in that first meeting. I can’t say that I’m the biggest LV fan, but they have covered five straight AFC West games. The Chiefs are coming off a bye, yet another reason they are favored so prohibitively in this rematch. Andy Reid has typically been very good off a bye, but how many times has he been asked to lay this many (points) in a division game that takes place in primetime? Probably not too many. The Chiefs have actually been outgained in two of the last three games and that’s despite facing the likes of Denver, the Jets and Carolina. The defense gave up nearly 500 yards in the first meeting with the Raiders, not to mention five plays of 40+ yards. The offensive line is dealing with multiple injuries as well. One of the reasons I waited to “get down” on this game was to monitor the Raiders’ reserve/COVID-19 list. Well, yesterday they activated 7 of the 10 players from it. So I’m confident we’ll be getting them at/near full strength. This is a team that’s won three in a row, including 37-12 last week. The offense has averaged 190.7 yards rushing during the win streak (that’s a lot!) while the defense has shown some real improvement, allowing just 14.7 PPG. They forced FIVE turnovers against Denver last week. 8* Las Vegas |
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11-22-20 | Cowboys +7.5 v. Vikings | Top | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 15 h 30 m | Show |
8* Dallas (4:25 ET): This is certainly a contrarian play as the Cowboys are 2-7 SU, not to mention 1-8 ATS. Meanwhile, Minnesota is surging. They’ve won three straight and covered six of their last seven games. But the situation here totally favors the underdog. Dallas is off its bye week. The VIkings are working on a short week after playing on MNF. This is the most points they have had to lay in any game this season and the line has DROPPED, which is telling. The only other time this season that the Vikings were favored by more than a field goal (-4 vs. Atlanta), they lost outright (here at home). Andy Dalton is also set to return this week for the Cowboys. He alone is not enough to save this lost season, but he is a definite upgrade on what we’ve seen at QB for Dallas the last three weeks. Dalton’s return should take some of the Vikings’ defensive focus off of RB Ezekiel Elliott, which could open the run game, typically a big strength for America’s Team. Minnesota’s defense may have looked good Monday night, but it is still allowing 27.4 PPG for the year and 33.5 PPG at home! I believe Dalton can make a difference this week and am counting on a big game from Elliott as well. While everyone is focusing on Minnesota getting back into playoff contention, don’t forget that Dallas isn’t out of it yet either, despite their record. That’s because everybody in the NFC East is struggling this season. Currently, the Cowboys are just one game behind the first place Eagles in the win column. HC Mike McCarthy is 10-2-1 ATS off a bye and 9-4 straight up. Prior to the bye, Dallas played undefeated Pittsburgh quite tough two weeks ago. They lost by only 5 points and led going into the 4Q. They should have covered the previous week at Philadelphia as well. The defense has quietly shown some improvement too. I’m taking the points Sunday. 8* Dallas |
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11-16-20 | Vikings v. Bears +3 | Top | 19-13 | Loss | -105 | 70 h 44 m | Show |
10* Chicago (8:15 ET): The look ahead line for this game was Bears -2. The number quickly jumped the fence and it’s now the Vikings laying a field goal on the road. I have to say that I completely disagree with the move as I’ve still got Chicago rated as the better team. So it should be them laying, not getting, the standard three. Coming off back to back wins, Minnesota is probably feeling pretty good about its chances of getting back in the playoff mix. Especially w/ three favorable home games on deck. But they should NOT be the favorites Monday night and I’m taking the points. The Vikings are looking to make it a 3-0 NFC North to start November. After their bye week, they upset the Packers (in Green Bay) 28-22 as six-point dogs. Then last week was a 34-20 home win over Detroit. RB Dalvin Cook has been the driving force. While both wins were impressive, I believe we’re putting too much stock into them. The Vikes were the beneficiaries of a +3 turnover margin against the Lions. Also, have we forgotten about Kirk Cousins’ woes in primetime? I haven’t. Cousins is 0-9 SU on MNF, the most consecutive defeats for a starting QB EVER on Monday nights. The much maligned Bears’ offense desperately needs a breakout game and it very likely could come here against a Vikings’ defense that has already given up 30+ pts three times. Under HC Matt Nagy, Chicago has had its own success in NFC North games, going 10-3 SU and 9-4 ATS. Nagy is 4-0 (SU) vs. the Vikings. Let’s not forget about the Bears’ defense, which is giving up just 19.3 PPG at home this season. Overall, it ranks as a Top 10 unit in both scoring and yards allowed. Bank on them stacking the box vs. Cook, thus forcing Cousins to make plays, which is something he never does under the bright lights. 10* Chicago |
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11-15-20 | 49ers +10 v. Saints | Top | 13-27 | Loss | -112 | 42 h 53 m | Show |
8* San Francisco (4:25 ET): This spread has clearly been influenced by the results of last week. A banged up 49ers team didn’t look particularly good in a 34-17 Thursday night loss to the Packers. Meanwhile, the Saints went to Tampa Bay and destroyed the Buccaneers 38-3. An adjustment had to be made by the oddsmakers, but the number just seems too high now and the play is to take the points. After such a big win, this feels like it could be a bit of a “letdown” spot for the Saints. Meanwhile, the 49ers’ season is somewhat on the brink and I think we’ll see a better effort from them here compared to last week. The 49ers team you’ll see here hardly resembles the one that defeated the Saints in a 48-46 thriller last season. So many players are injured, the most notable being QB Jimmy Garoppolo and TE George Kittle. After being favored in each of their first five contests, this game will mark the 5th straight time that SF is getting points. They are 9-3 ATS on the road since the start of last season (3rd best) including 6-1 ATS as a dog (2nd best win percentage). You’d have to go back a long way to find the last time the Niners were getting double digits. Even with the injuries, my power rankings say this spread shouldn’t be more than a TD. While it’s pretty likely that the 49ers are about to suffer their first three-game losing streak since late in 2018, look for them to keep it closer than expected Sunday. Prior to clobbering the Bucs, New Orleans’ previous four wins were all by six points or fewer. Three of those were by a field goal and two in overtime. So as hot as they may seem, New Orleans is not necessarily dominating most opponents (save for last week). The Saints entered Week 9 at 5-2, but their point differential was just +9. Yeah, we underrated them last week, but there’s been an overcorrection in the marketplace here. 8* San Francisco |
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11-15-20 | Bills v. Cardinals -1 | Top | 30-32 | Win | 100 | 71 h 15 m | Show |
10* Arizona (4:05 ET): There were plenty of misleading results on the NFL scoreboard last week. Give credit to Buffalo for beating Seattle 44-34, but a) the Seahawks pass defense continues to be absolutely atrocious and b) it was a +4 turnover margin. I remain unconvinced that the Bills are as good as their 7-2 SU record. As for Arizona, they are a team I remain high on despite a 34-31 home loss to Miami last week. The Cardinals outgained the Dolphins by over 100 yards and would have won if not for a giving up an early defensive touchdown. Because of last week’s results, we are getting a tremendous value on the home team here. Despite losing last week, Arizona still has the best point differential (+53) in the NFC. They are an ascendent team that I believe will easily make the playoffs. Two weeks ago, they were a 10* ULTIMATE POWER release here at home against Seattle and they won 37-34 in overtime. While they’ve been anything but reliable as a favorite (three outright losses this year), this is a really short number to lay to a Bills team whose point differential is only +9 for the year. The respective records of these teams are quite misleading. My own power rankings say Arizona should be closer to a touchdown favorite here! Over the last four weeks, only three players in the league have 225+ rushing yards with at least three rushing touchdowns. Tennessee’s Derrick Henry and Minnesota’s Dalvin Cook, two names you’d expect, are among the triumvirate. The third player is Arizona QB Kyler Murray! Last week saw Murray go over 100 yards for the first time in his young career. He’s averaging 7.1 YPC and going against a Bills defense that allows 4.6 YPC. The Cardinals have a much better pass defense than the Seahawks (have allowed 280+ yds passing just one time), so Bills QB Josh Allen is not going to repeat his 400+ yd performance from last week. I really like this play. 10* Arizona |
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11-12-20 | Colts +2 v. Titans | Top | 34-17 | Win | 100 | 54 h 24 m | Show |
10* Indianapolis (8:20 ET): The Titans currently have a one-game edge on the Colts in the AFC South. But, in my eyes, Indy is the better team. That’s built into the line for Thursday night (which is less than 3 pts), but the road dog is still the correct play here in my book. The Colts are outgaining their foes by a larger number on both a per game and per play basis this season. In fact, Tennessee is actually being outgained. If that’s not enough, Indianapolis has the better YTD point differential as well. Tennessee is off a win Sunday whereas Indianapolis lost. Those two results have the Titans out in front of the division, but an inspection of the respective box scores reveals just how misleading they were. Indianapolis outgained a very good Baltimore team 339-266 last week, only to lose 24-10 at home. Their outstanding defense (#1 in yards allowed) actually held the Ravens to 4.2 yards per play and before LB Darius Leonard went down, they hadn’t allowed a single point. As for Tennessee, they were outgained 375-228 in a 24-17 win over Chicago. While some of that was the Bears running 20 more plays and scoring two late TD’s, the Titans offense only gained 4.1 yards per play and the difference ended up being a defensive score. The Colts defense is statistically better than that of the Bears. I don’t see the Colts offense going 2 for 15 on 3rd down (as the Bears did Sunday). Tennessee has been VERY fortunate this year in going 5-1 SU in one-score games. None of those wins were over teams currently in playoff position and the one close loss (27-24 to Pittsburgh) saw them fall behind 27-7 at home. Take the points. 10* Indianapolis |
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11-08-20 | Saints v. Bucs -4.5 | Top | 38-3 | Loss | -109 | 56 h 15 m | Show |
10* Tampa Bay (8:20 ET): This is the Buccaneers’ time to shine. They certainly didn’t Monday night when they barely escaped with a 25-23 win over the Giants. But that can be forgiven seeing as how they had this game on the horizon, a revenge spot against one of the two teams that has beaten them this season. Despite coming up short in that Week 1 meeting in New Orleans (34-23), the Bucs actually outgained the Saints 310-271. They were undone by a -3 turnover margin and Tom Brady threw a pick six. I’ve got the Bucs rated #2 in my power rankings (behind the Chiefs) and this relatively short number is a good value. New Orleans has won four straight, but covered just one of their last six. All four of their victories during the current win streak have been by six points or fewer with the last three all coming by a field goal and two of those were in overtime! So they’re a bit of a “shaky” 5-2 SU. Tampa Bay is 6-2 SU, but compare their YTD point differential (+82) to that of the Saints (+9). Furthermore, since that Week 1 win over the Bucs, the Saints haven’t beaten anybody that I expect to make the playoffs. The defense is giving up 28.1 PPG. It can’t be overstated how big of a game this is for the Bucs. They’ve lost four in a row to the Saints, but with Brady, this is clearly the best team they’ve had in awhile. I do expect them to finish as the NFC’s #1 seed. Therefore, it’s quite logical to take them in this spot as they’d be unlikely to capture the NFC South were they to get swept in the season series. Don’t put much stock in what happened Monday night as it was a clear look ahead on the road. They are better than the Saints and will prove it Sunday night. 10* Tampa Bay |
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11-08-20 | Raiders v. Chargers | Top | 31-26 | Loss | -105 | 52 h 1 m | Show |
9* LA Chargers (4:05 ET): The Chargers are better than their record. I feel like that’s something that could be said most seasons. Last year saw the Lightning Bolts finish 5-11 SU, but they were only outscored by EIGHT points! This year has seen a new level of frustration with a 2-5 SU start seeing FOUR losses where they blew a double digit lead! Last week was perhaps a new low as they blew a 21-point second half lead at Denver and lost 31-30. They are the 1st team in league history to lose four straight times when losing by 16+ points! While these blown leads will almost certainly cost them a playoff spot, the Chargers still have reason for optimism. Most of it centers around rookie QB Justin Herbert, who leads the AFC in passing yardage per game (303.3) and has thrown at least three TD passes three consecutive weeks. This week, Herbert is facing a Raiders pass defense that is #27 in the league by DVOA standards and has given up 260+ passing yards in five of seven games. Last week’s effort against Cleveland was not indicative of where this Las Vegas defense is at. They’d allowed 30+ pts five of the first six games. I am digging my heels in the sand that the Chargers are due for a win. Three of those four blown leads came against Kansas City, New Orleans and Tampa Bay. Those are three of the best teams in the league. Las Vegas has been favored only ONE time this year (Wk 1 at Carolina) and has a WORSE YTD point differential than the Chargers. I disagree with the line move here (I’m aware of the Bosa injury). The Chargers are outgaining foes by 53 YPG, REALLY due for a division win (0-8 vs. AFC West L2 years) and I just can’t see LV winning a third straight road game. 9* LA Chargers |
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11-05-20 | Packers v. 49ers +7.5 | Top | 34-17 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 27 m | Show |
8* San Francisco (8:20 ET): So there’s been plenty of mid-week drama in this one, but I’m sticking with the 49ers. Yes, they are going to be without both QB Jimmy Garoppolo and TE George Kittle. But they have been playing without key performers all season and are still a very respectable 4-4 SU this season with a +35 point differential. As I stated earlier in the year, the “downgrade” from Garoppolo to backup Nick Mullens isn’t that severe. With Mullens at helm, the 49ers have won a game 36-9. Let’s also not forget that Green Bay is missing some key pieces for this one, namely at running back. I’ll be taking the points. As I’ve been quite clear about for a while now, I see the Packers regressing this year. They went 13-3 SU in the 2019 regular season, but were very lucky to do so. Now after last week’s 28-22 upset loss to the Vikings, they’ve lost twice in the past three weeks. I faded them against Tampa Bay in what was my top NFL pick for October! Last week against Minnesota, the defense was run over by Vikings RB Dalvin Cook. Speaking of running the ball, the Packers are really going to struggle to do so here, especially if Aaron Jones (questionable) doesn’t make it onto the field. That would make it THREE RB’s down for the Pack. Now San Francisco is going to be without a ton. In fact, they won’t have a single player responsible for any of the total yardage in LY’s two wins over Green Bay. But still, even against Aaron Rodgers, they shouldn’t be getting this many points at home. The offense should be able to move the ball against a GB defense that allowed 173 rush yards last week. The Packers are 0-6 ATS the L6 years in Week 9. The 49ers are 7-2 ATS L9 as an underdog. 8* San Francisco |
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11-01-20 | Cowboys +10 v. Eagles | Top | 9-23 | Loss | -120 | 60 h 43 m | Show |
8* Dallas (8:20 ET): Hold your nose and grab the points here as we’re taking the Cowboys plus the points Sunday night. To be clear, I have not lost my mind. Rather, I’m very cognizant of the fact the look ahead line for this game was just +2.5. It was then adjusted after another ugly Dallas loss last week (to +7.5) and has now risen past double digits with the announcement that 3rd string QB Ben DiNucci will be starting this week. I don’t think a 2-4-1 Eagles team - that has plenty of its own problems - should be laying this many points to anybody right now. Consider that the Eagles were a dog of 7 pts or more three straight games before LW’s win over the Giants. That win was by just a single point and required a 4Q comeback at home. That right there should give the Cowboys hope. Philly’s two wins this year have been by a total of six points and they have a YTD point differential of -33. The Dallas defense has forced a league-low three turnovers thus far, but Eagles QB Carson Wentz is tied for a league-high 10 interceptions and has turned it over 12 times total. With the Jets covering last week (I had ‘em!), the Cowboys are the lone remaining winless team ATS. They are 0-7 ATS, which is the worst start to a season at the betting window since the ‘03 Raiders. They’re due for a cover here and it should come at a time when everyone is doubting them. The Eagles are 0-4 ATS as favorites this season and have won just one of those four games straight up. They are just 3-12 ATS L15 as a home favorite. Take the points. 8* Dallas |
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11-01-20 | 49ers +3 v. Seahawks | Top | 27-37 | Loss | -100 | 101 h 28 m | Show |
9* San Francisco (4:25 ET): As revealed in last week’s *10* ULTIMATE POWER release on Arizona, I am not as high on Seattle as the marketplace seems to be. This despite the team’s 5-1 SU record (were 5-0 going into last week). Statistically, they have the worst defense in the league as they allow the most yards per game (479.2) & it’s really not even close. Jacksonville allows the 2nd most YPG in the league and they are allowing almost 55 YPG less than Seattle! The Seahawks are particularly vulnerable against the pass as we saw last Sunday night when they allowed Kyler Murray to throw for 360 yards. Consider this: the Seattle defense has allowed the most passing yards EVER through the first six games of the season. They’ve allowed more total yards than all but three teams and that’s despite the fact they’ve already had their bye and a majority of teams have not! San Francisco has no such defensive issues. Despite an outlier game against Miami (where they lost 43-17), the 49ers are giving up an average of just 19.4 PPG this year. They are #5 in both scoring and total defense. I took them two weeks ago when they upset the Rams at home, 24-16, as a 3-point underdog on SNF. They are getting healthier while Seattle could be w/o its top three running backs here. After Jim Harbaugh made his exodus from SF, this became a pretty one-sided divisional rivalry (in Seattle’s favor). But the 49ers have won two of the last three meetings, including the one here in Seattle LY. But what’s really impressive is the fact the 49ers have covered seven straight times as an underdog, all but one of those times coming on the road where they are a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS this season. Remember that virtually all of Seattle’s games end up being close and they’ve tended to be very lucky in terms of results. That luck ran out last week in the desert and I’m not concerned that this number moved several points from the lookahead as I have SF rated as the better team! 9* San Francisco |
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11-01-20 | Rams v. Dolphins +4 | Top | 17-28 | Win | 100 | 122 h 57 m | Show |
10* Miami (1:00 ET): There is a tremendous situational edge in this matchup for the Dolphins. They are coming out of a bye while the visiting Rams are on a short week. While you may recall last week’s play on Arizona found them on a short week facing a Seattle team off its bye, note the differences. Arizona was at home and GETTING points. The Rams are on the road and laying points. It’s an early start time too. Yes, the Rams do have a (recent) history of performing better than expected in these 1:00 ET starts, I don’t see that continuing this week. Both Rams losses this season have been on the road and one (at Buffalo) was an early start. Of course, the BIG story for this game is that Tua Tagovailoa will be making his first career start for Miami. While it’s a bit of a gamble by HC Brian Flores, the current “lay of the land” in the AFC East dictates a “go for it” mentality. The Jets are terrible, the Patriots are declining and I don’t think the Bills are as good as everyone thinks. Quietly, the Dolphins have outscored their opponents by 47 points (despite being 3-3). All three wins have been by at least 18 points. Prior to the bye, they destroyed a San Francisco team (43-17!) that the Rams lost to and then shut out the Jets 24-0. The Fins are a perfect 5-0 ATS the L5 years off their bye! The Rams are 5-2 SU, but four of those wins have come at the expense of the moribund NFC East. The only non-NFC East win was Monday against offensively inept Chicago. This is already their FOURTH trip into the Eastern Time Zone this season. Remember that they were down huge in Buffalo before a furious 2H rally fell short. Tua has had two weeks to prepare for his 1st start and there’s a reason Miami made him their top draft choice. He clearly has more upside than Ryan Fitzpatrick. Take the points in what is my biggest NFL play of the season! 10* Miami |
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10-26-20 | Bears v. Rams -5.5 | Top | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
10* LA Rams (8:15 ET): Chicago is a very fraudulent 5-1 SU right now as they’ve twice come back from 17+ pt deficits to win in the 2nd half. All five wins have been by 7 pts or less. They were badly outgained two weeks ago on Thursday night by Tampa Bay, yet still managed to win 20-19. They averaged only 4.1 yards per play in that game. So far, the Bears have been outgained on both a per game and per play basis this season. In the four games they didn’t rally back from 17+ down, they have failed to score more than 23 points. This is a team I want to fade. Meanwhile, the Rams are 5-1 ATS off their L6 SU losses. They lost to 49ers as a road favorite on SNF last week, a spot where I actually played against them. But they are 4-1 ATS L5 as a home favorite. Unlike the Bears, LA is outgaining teams on a per game and per play basis. Even though Chicago is carried by its defense, the Rams are giving up fewer yards and points per game. Only two teams in the Super Bowl era have pulled off five outright upsets in the first seven weeks of the season, which is what Chicago is vying to do here. The Bears have been outgained in 4 of their 6 games this year. Even though they've won two straight, I don't feel that QB Nick Foles has necessarily been any kind of improvement compared to Mitch Trubisky. 10* LA Rams |
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10-25-20 | Seahawks v. Cardinals +3.5 | Top | 34-37 | Win | 100 | 129 h 2 m | Show |
10* Arizona (8:25 ET): I absolutely love this play and the fact it’s been moved into the Sunday night spot makes it all the more enticing. I am nowhere near as high on the Seahawks as the market seems to be, despite Russell Wilson and company being 5-0 straight up. They have the worst defense in the league, at least in terms of yards per game allowed and they are giving up 35 more YPG passing than the next worst team. That Arizona is on a short week here while Seattle is off a bye is offset by the fact the home team is catching points. My own power rankings actually say they should be the favorite this week! Take the points. The Cardinals made short work of Dallas Monday night, winning that game 38-10 thanks to four Cowboys turnovers. It won’t be that easy this week, but Arizona is up for the challenge. They are 4-2 SU despite having played just two home games and one of their losses (a surprise to Detroit) was by a field goal. This will be the 1st time Arizona is getting points since their Week 1 upset of the 49ers. Though they’ve obviously seen some weak offenses to this point, the fact they are allowing just 18.7 PPG is still impressive. In fact, only Baltimore is allowing fewer points per game! As good as Wilson & the Seattle offense has looked, the team is being outgained on a per game basis. They have been outgained in all but one game, a 31-23 win over Miami where they were very lucky that the Dolphins kept settling for field goals. Two weeks ago against Minnesota (also on SNF), the Seahawks were outgained 449-314 and kept scoreless in the 1H by a pretty suspect defense. Arizona’s Kyler Murray has five games this season with at least one passing and one rushing TD. The Cardinals have gone 5-1-1 ATS the L7 meetings with Seattle and this is their best team during that timespan. 10* Arizona |
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10-25-20 | Bills v. Jets +11 | Top | 18-10 | Win | 100 | 27 h 39 m | Show |
8* NY Jets (1:00 ET): Just hold your nose and take the points. At 0-6 SU/ATS, the Jets are obviously awful and considered by just about everybody to be the worst team in the league. But also, it’s been 22 years since a team opened 0-7 SU/ATS. That’s happened only three times in the Super Bowl era. The most consecutive ATS losses to open a season was 8 (by the ‘03 Raiders), so eventually a ticket is going to cash for the Flyboys. With Sam Darnold now set to return, why not this week? This is a ton of points to be getting at home. It’s not just about how many points the Jets are getting here, though I should point out my own power rankings say anything above 8.5 is a solid value. Buffalo is also in a terrible situation as it will be playing its third game in a 12-day span. This is the second week in a row they are on short rest. Last Monday, they came out sluggish against the Chiefs and ended up losing 26-17. It was the second straight game where they were held to 17 pts or less. While those games were against two of the AFC’s best, I’ll reiterate something I said last week & that’s I am not as high on the Bills as others seem to be. The Bills have a negative scoring differential on the year (-12). In addition to Darnold’s likely return, the Jets are expected to be healthy at WR for the 1st time all season. Rookie Denzel Mims is set to make his debut. He and Breshad Perriman form a pretty decent duo for Darnold to throw to. For the record, if for some reason Darnold does NOT take the field, this play still stands. Getting back to the situation for Buffalo, not only are they on short rest for a second straight week, they’ve got the Patriots on deck. The Jets have held four of six opponents below 250 yds passing and Bills QB Allen has looked suspect in the L2 games. 8* NY Jets |
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10-22-20 | Giants +4.5 v. Eagles | Top | 21-22 | Win | 100 | 31 h 42 m | Show |
10* NY Giants (8:20 ET): For the first time this season, the Giants are off a win. Even though they got outgained (337-240), needed a late defensive TD and then had to hold off a late Washington 2-point try. It was a 20-19 final score. Ron Rivera’s decision to go for 2 (and the win) actually cost Giants’ bettors who played the spread as that line closed -2. But it’s back to the underdog role this week for Joe Judge and the G-Men against a similarly struggling Eagles outfit that also has just one win. I’m taking the points here. Philadelphia is as banged up as any team in the league right now. On Tuesday, they did announce that they expect WR DeSean Jackson and RT Lane Johnson to play in this game. However, that comes just as RB Miles Sanders and TE Zach Ertz were injured in the 30-28 loss to Baltimore on Sunday. All the injuries on offense have caused QB Carson Wentz to have a bad start to the year. While Wentz did rally the Eagles late vs. Baltimore, that was after falling behind 24-6 after three quarters and ultimately the rally fell short. Though both the Giants and Eagles’ games last week were ultimately decided on failed 2-point conversions in the final minute, the ironic thing is the team that won (Giants) failed to cover while the team that lost (Eagles) did cover. Still, Philadelphia remains one of the league’s biggest underachievers at 1-4-1 SU as they are 0-3 SU/ATS as favorites. This line opened too high and I still like the Giants at the current price as they’ve been in every game but one this year. The Eagles have the same number of DD losses (2) as the Giants. Their ATS woes as a favorite actually go back awhile (8-16 ATS L24) including 5-11 when laying 3.5 to 9.5. The Giants are shockingly 17-5 ATS L22 as a road dog, including 8-1 L9 when getting 3.5 to 7. 10* NY Giants |
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10-19-20 | Cardinals v. Cowboys +1.5 | Top | 38-10 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 14 m | Show |
10* Dallas (8:15 ET): I feel that it’s always worth monitoring “look-ahead lines.” The vast majority of the time, you won’t find much difference. But for this game, the line swung severely in the wake of the Dak Prescott injury. The only line to move more (relative to the look-ahead line) was the Sunday nighter between the Rams and 49ers. The initial adjustment here, while understandable (Prescott is a big loss!), was too severe. I know the defense has been a MAJOR question mark to this point, but I think the Cowboys with Andy Dalton are going to be alright. Thanks to a 2-0 start, Arizona quickly grabbed the attention of the market. This will actually be the 5th consecutive game where they are favored and third straight on the road! Consider that the Cardinals had been an underdog 16 straight times before these L5 games. Under HC Kliff Kingsbury, they are just 2-3 STRAIGHT UP as a favorite. That includes an outright loss at home to Detroit three weeks ago and an outright loss at Carolina two weeks ago. Two of their three wins this season have come against Washington and the Jets, who are maybe the two worst teams in the league. Dalton will have an excellent set of skill position players at his disposal. He won’t put up the numbers Prescott did, but I expect him to improve the team’s turnover margin. While I don’t think the Cowboys are going to continue to lead the league in yards per game, look for the defense to improve. Certainly, it (the defense) can’t be any worse. Dallas is the only team in the league that’s still winless ATS. So they’re due and it just so happens they’re undervalued here. Arizona has been a disaster on MNF through the years, going 2-11-1 ATS L14. The Cardinals have only forced 3 TO’s all season. 10* Dallas |
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10-18-20 | Rams v. 49ers +3.5 | Top | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 51 h 25 m | Show |
8* San Francisco (8:25 ET): The lookahead line for this Sunday night NFC West matchup was Niners -3. Once they (SF) lost to Miami last week, 43-17, the line quickly “jumped the fence” and now it’s the Rams favored by a field goal. That’s far too big of a shift in my opinion as the Niners are now healthier than they have been since Week 1 and playing at home. At 2-3 SU, they have to be very disappointed as they went off as the betting favorite in all five games. They’ve been favored by 6.5 or more in four of the games. The Rams are just the opposite. They’ve gone 4-1 SU despite being favored only twice. They are coming off two very easy wins, the two games where they were favored, over the Giants and Redskins (who are a combined 1-9 SU). The one time this year that the Rams faced a team with a winning record was Week 3 in Buffalo and they fell behind in that game 28-3 before a miracle comeback fell short. That’s also notable because they’d played out East the week before, which is also the case here. The 49ers should be highly motivated this week considering they are winless at home, losing outright to the Cardinals, Eagles and Dolphins. QB Garoppolo, who didn’t appear ready last week, is reportedly now feeling “great.” Despite being 2-3 SU, the Niners have outscored their opponents this season. They are 5-0 ATS as an underdog since the start of last season, the only team in the league w/o an ATS loss when taking points during that time frame. I think this is a great value relative to where the line was originally going to be set. Take the points. 8* San Francisco |
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10-18-20 | Packers v. Bucs +1 | Top | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 71 h 34 m | Show |
10* Tampa Bay (4:25 ET): I still don’t understand how the Bucs lost in Chicago last Thursday and that’s coming from someone that HAD the Bears. The Tampa defense certainly did its job, allowing just 4.1 yards per play, which I *believe* was the second lowest YPP average by any team this season (Washington averaged less in Week 1). It was 13-0 early in the 2Q. But it ended up a 20-19 final in the Bears’ favor, thanks to a last minute FG. Now at 3-2 SU, the Bucs could sure use a win here. While up against an unbeaten opponent coming off its bye, Tampa is off its own ‘mini-bye’ and I like the spot for them. I will freely admit that my calls for Green Bay regression in 2020 don’t look so great right now. The Packers are 4-0 and have the NFC’s best point differential. But I still don’t think they are going to match LY’s 13-3 SU record. It’s worth noting that the last three Packer opponents have been w/o their top WR. So that’s helped. GB also got the benefit of facing Minnesota in the season opener and that was their 1st game w/o Stefon Diggs. The Pack have also yet to commit a turnover, which will obviously change sooner rather than later. Tampa Bay’s defense continues to allow under 300 YPG (#2) and you simply cannot run on them as they are allowing just 58.4 YPG over land, which is easily a league best. Green Bay has run for less than 90 yards in two of its games. With three extra days between games, the offense should be healthier as HC Bruce Arians has said he thinks WR Godwin should be ready to go. That’s huge. Despite being the only unbeaten ATS team in the league, Green Bay shouldn’t be favored here as Aaron Rodgers is just 4-8 ATS as a road favorite the L5 seasons and Tom Brady is 9-1 SU/8-2 ATS as a home dog. 10* Tampa Bay |
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10-18-20 | Texans v. Titans -3.5 | Top | 36-42 | Win | 100 | 28 h 1 m | Show |
9* Tennessee (1:00 ET): Playing on an atypically short week, it looks as if the Titans are being counted out again. The team just played Tuesday - when it buried Buffalo 42-16 as a 3.5-point home dog. We went with Tennessee in that one, despite all the COVID-19 distractions, and they responded in kind. Despite now being 4-0 SU, Tuesday marked the Titans’ 1st cover of the 2020 season. Maybe that’s another reason why this line is so low. But whatever the reason is, the line is TOO low. My own power rankings say Tennessee should be favored by more than a TD at home here. Lay the points. Houston was a prime candidate for regression in 2020 and regress they have. They were the first team to make a coaching change, firing Bill O’Brien after an 0-4 start. Predictably, the Texans responded with a win, but note that it was against a poor Jacksonville team they were favored to beat by a touchdown. Truthfully, even though this was a playoff team a year ago, the Texans weren’t very good. They had a negative point differential in 2019 and the offseason was filled with questionable personnel moves by O’Brien. That’s why I felt they were a prime candidate for regression. I think it’s about time we start giving Titans’ QB Ryan Tannehill some much deserved credit. Since he took over as the starter here (from Marcus Mariota, remember him?), the team has gone 11-3 straight up while averaging over 30 points per game. That’s really impressive. Tannehill has been especially effective in the red zone this year, going 14 for 18 w/ 9 TD passes and no INTs. The Titans scored a TD on all 6 RZ possessions against Buffalo last week and now face a Texans defense that’s given up 28+ pts to every opponent besides Jacksonville. HC Mike Vrabel blitzed a lot on defense Tuesday and that approach should be effective again here against a suspect Texans’ offensive line. The Titans are simply a much better team than Houston and are playing at home. That’s not reflected in this line. 9* Tennessee |
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10-13-20 | Bills v. Titans +3.5 | Top | 16-42 | Win | 100 | 25 h 26 m | Show |
8* Tennessee (7:00 ET): Given all the trials and tribulations associated with the COVID-19 outbreak, taking Tennessee in this spot may seem a bit “crazy.” With their facility shut down, practicing has been “touch and go.” And the team’s two top receivers - Corey Davis and Adam Humphries - are among those who have tested positive. All and all, 23 players and staff have tested positive since 9/23, making this a very trying season in Nashville. But the Titans are 3-0 straight up, even while they are 0-3 against the spread. The Buffalo bandwagon is beginning to fill as the Bills are 4-0 SU with an offense that is outperforming expectations. While the Titans’ three wins have come by a total of six points, Buffalo’s last three wins have also all been of the one-score variety. Two were by just a field goal, and while they enjoyed DD leads in both of those games, it’s worth noting the defense has struggled to hold leads in the second half. The Bills have been outgained by their opponents - the Rams and Raiders - each of the last two weeks. Were this game taking place under “normal circumstances,” I’d have Tennessee favored. These are anything but normal circumstances, but I think the line is an overreaction. I think people have forgotten the Titans are also undefeated, not to mention made the AFC Championship Game last year. This is going to be a very motivated football team come Tuesday night. I’m not as high on the Bills (relative to most people) and they too have been adversely affected by the change in schedule. The underdog has gone 5-0 ATS the L5 times these teams have met. Tennessee is 8-4 ATS L12 as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 pts w/ seven outright wins. 8* Tennessee |
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10-11-20 | Vikings +7 v. Seahawks | Top | 26-27 | Win | 100 | 56 h 57 m | Show |
9* Minnesota (8:25 ET):I know that Seattle has been a far more dominant team than they were last year when they went 11-5 SU and outscored opponents by only 7 points over the full regular season. They enter Week 5 at 4-0 SU w/ a point differential of +33. Them not regressing (as of yet) may have something to do with “letting Russ(ell Wilson) cook” or it’s simply a matter of continuity from last season. Whatever the reason, I’m not sure they keep up their level of strong play. Off their 1st win of the season, I think the Vikings are going to come out strong.. The Seahawks defense remains shaky as they are giving up 476.8 YPG, by far the most in the league. They were very fortunate to “only” allow 23 points last week as the Dolphins routinely settled for field goals. Total yards and first downs were relatively even in that game and it’s not like Miami is a great offensive team. But this Minnesota offense, led by the league’s leading rusher Dalvin Cook, has scored 30+ points against every opponent except the Colts (who have the league’s best defense. Of Seattle’s last 26 games, 22 of them have been decided by one score. So there’s a strong likelihood this ends up as a “close game.” As mentioned earlier, the Vikings finally got into the win column last week at Houston. The week previous saw them lead the Titans by double digits, only to lose on a last second FG. This is a team with excellent red zone numbers, both offensively and defensively, and I think they’re going to put up plenty of points in this game. That makes them an attractive underdog in my eyes. 9* Minnesota |
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10-11-20 | Colts v. Browns | Top | 23-32 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 15 m | Show |
10* Indianapolis (4:25 ET): Cleveland has won three straight, scoring 30+ points in all three victories. That’s a pretty significant achievement for a franchise that has not started 3-1 since 2001. But some context should be provided here. The three teams that the Browns have defeated - Cincinnati, Washington & Dallas - are a combined 3-8-1 SU and the L2 weeks have seen the Browns be the beneficiary of a +8 turnover margin. They now go from facing the league’s worst defense (Dallas) to the best defense. This is a reality check for Cleveland. The Colts are 3-1 and in addition to having the league’s best defense (on a per play and per game basis), they have the league’s 4th best point differential. They probably should be 4-0 SU (have been favored in all 4 games) but blew a lead in Week 1, a game they outgained Jacksonville by over 200 yards. Since then, they’ve allowed just 29 points (total!) and an average of 234.7 yards per game (only 4.4 yards per play). I think the Colts deserve to be favored by AT LEAST a field goal in this one. Though Indy is a bit thin at linebacker right now, they get a HUGE break in that Cleveland’s league-leading rushing attack is w/o Nick Chubb. The Colts are #1 in the league at stopping the run, allowing just 77 YPG over land. Again, this is a big step up for Cleveland after facing two of the league’s worst teams (Cincinnati, Washington) and the league’s worst defense. Their defense gave up over 500 yards last week, not a good sign even though Philip Rivers isn’t Dak Prescott. The Browns are just 4-10 SU/4-9-1 ATS L14 vs. teams w/ a winning record and haven’t faced one since a 38-6 loss at Baltimore in Week 1. 10* Indianapolis |
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10-11-20 | Bengals +13 v. Ravens | Top | 3-27 | Loss | -120 | 28 h 10 m | Show |
9* Cincinnati (1:00 ET): Even with Ravens QB Lamar Jackson missing practice time this week, there was little line movement for this AFC North matchup. Can’t say I’m too surprised about that; all three Ravens wins this year have come by at least two touchdowns. But they were served a case of “humble pie” two weeks ago by Kansas City in a 34-20 loss where they were outgained 517-228. Coming off that, I faded them last week in Washington and sure enough a “ho-hum” effort resulted in me getting a ½ point cover! It’s a double digit spread again this week for Baltimore, only this time at home. It’s against a Cincinnati team that’s been surprisingly competitive. The Bengals’ two losses this year have come by a total of eight points and they tied Philadelphia on the road. Last week finally saw Zac Taylor’s team break into the win column as they rolled up 33 points and 500+ yards on Jacksonville. Rookie QB Joe Burrow has been as good as advertised thus far, throwing for 300+ yards in three consecutive games. While the Ravens have had success in the past facing rookie QB’s at home and have NEVER lost a game in which they were DD favorites, I expect this game to be close. Cincy has a history of playing Baltimore relatively close, covering five of the last seven meetings including three SU wins. Even last season, they only lost by six here in Baltimore. Ten of the Bengals’ last 16 losses have been one-score games. The Ravens haven’t looked good the L2 weeks and Jackson is surprisingly only 4-8 ATS as a home favorite. 9* Cincinnati |
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10-08-20 | Bucs v. Bears +4 | Top | 19-20 | Win | 100 | 30 h 43 m | Show |
10* Chicago (8:20 ET): The lookahead line for this Thursday night game had the Bucs favored by three. It was reopened at -6 and while I’m “kicking myself” for not getting my own bet in sooner, I still think there’s plenty of value here on the Bears. My own power rankings suggested this line should be TB -1. I get that Chicago hasn’t looked great offensively, but let us not forget Tampa Bay trailed the Chargers 24-7 in the first half last week and that was at home. The Bears’ defense is good enough to at least keep this one within a field goal. Take the points. So far, Chicago has played eight halves of football. Five of them haven’t been very good, but they’re still 3-1 SU. After leading a miracle comeback the previous week in Atlanta, QB Nick Foles made his starting debut for the Bears last week vs. Indianapolis and it didn’t go so well. But he was facing the top defense in the league there. I expect this game to go much better for Foles. It shouldn’t take much with a defense that is allowing just 20.3 PPG so far. Tampa Bay hasn’t exactly faced a “murderer’s row” of QBs thus far. In fact, each of the L3 weeks has seen them face a team with a new starting QB this year: Teddy Bridgewater in Carolina, Jeff Driskel in Denver and Justin Herbert in LA. That made it pretty easy on the Bucs defense. Yes, Foles is in his first year with the Bears as well, but he’s a veteran. The Bucs are just 2-7 SU/ATS on Thursday Night Football and will be the classic case of a “public road favorite” in this one. Injuries are a much bigger factor for the Bucs right now than for the Bears as numerous skill position players have missed practice this week. 10* Chicago |
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10-04-20 | Eagles v. 49ers -7 | Top | 25-20 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 14 m | Show |
10* San Francisco (8:20 ET): Though Philadelphia is winless SU (0-2-1) and ATS (0-3), this line may seem a bit curious to some. San Francisco is as banged up as any team in the league right now, yet still laying a touchdown in primetime against a playoff team from a year ago. I urge you not to fall for the trap of taking the Eagles in this one, for they are simply a bad football team right now. Furthermore, the 49ers are getting healthier at wideout and backup QB Nick Mullens isn’t that much of a drop off from Jimmy Garoppolo. My own power rankings suggest this number is far too low! Lay it! This is the second straight year that the Eagles have opened 0-3 ATS. Just like last season, they’ve been favored to win each of the first three games this year. Yet, they are 0-2-1 SU after an embarrassing tie with the Bengals last week. Since jumping out to a 17-0 lead on Washington in Week 1, Philly has been outscored 87-42 over the last 10+ quarters. QB Carson Wentz has not looked good at all as he has the lowest passer rating in the league and committed seven turnovers. Making matters worse, the team was down to one healthy WR at practice on Thursday. Both DeSean Jackson and Alshon Jeffrey have been ruled out for this game. The San Francisco defense is allowing just 187.3 pass yards per game so far. Don’t look for any kind of turnaround from Wentz here. When you’re dealing with as many injuries as the 49ers are, it helps to play the Jets and Giants. They crushed those two teams - 31-13 and 36-9 respectively - and now own the league’s #1 overall point differential! While the Jets & Giants may be the two worst teams in the league right now, the Eagles aren’t too far behind. Unlike Philly, the Niners are getting healthier at WR as both George Kittle and Deebo Samuel are expected back here. Mullens threw for 343 yards LW w/o them and has 2,620 passing yds in nine career starts. Look for the home team to win big Sunday night. 10* San Francisco |
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10-04-20 | Seahawks v. Dolphins +6 | Top | 31-23 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 7 m | Show |
8* Miami (1:00 ET): This might seem like an “ugly” one, but despite being 3-0 SU/ATS, Seattle has the worst defensive numbers in the league right now. They are giving up a league-high 431 YPG passing and have allowed over 500 yards total in two of the three games. They have actually been outgained in all three games! All that has largely been overlooked due to the MVP-level of QB Russell Wilson, but eventually the poor defensive play is bound to catch up to the Seahawks. This was a lucky team last year (winning 11 games despite only a +7 point differential) and 21 of their L25 games have been decided by one score! It’s not likely we’ll see the Seahawks defense start to improve this week either. All-Pro safety Jamal Adams is out this week after a groin tear last week vs. Dallas. Three other members of the secondary are currently banged up and LB Jordyn Brooks, a rookie, is also likely to miss this game. In addition to giving up the most passing yards per game in the league through three weeks, Seattle is also allowing the most yards per attempt and completion. They are just vulnerable through the air and I look for savvy Miami QB Ryan Fitzpatrick to take advantage. Fitzpatrick should also look to hand the ball off some in this game. Rookie RB Myles Gaskin is averaging 4.6 yards per touch. The Miami offensive line is also improved in pass protection, having permitted only five sacks to this point. After losing by 10 at New England in Week 1, the Dolphins have taken undefeated Buffalo to the wire and then blew out Jacksonville 31-13 last Thursday. They’ve had 10 days to prepare for Seattle while the Seahawks are making the longest road trip (in terms of miles) possible in the league this week. 8* Miami |
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10-04-20 | Ravens v. Washington Football Team +14.5 | Top | 31-17 | Win | 100 | 23 h 53 m | Show |
8* Washington (1:00 ET): If the Dolphins play is considered “ugly,” this is one where you’ll have to straight “hold your nose!” But you need not worry that I’ve lost my mind, rather this is a lot of points we’re getting against a Ravens team in a bad situation. They just got embarrassed Monday night by the Chiefs, getting outgained 517-228 in a 34-20 loss. It’s a short week to get over that and I think the loss will have a “carry over” type effect as they are now faced with the prospect of laying two touchdowns on the road. Take the points. Washington also lost 34-20 last week, albeit to a Cleveland team that Baltimore had previously blown out by 38-6. But don’t be fooled by Washington’s score from last week. They were basically dead even in total yardage and even led going into the 4th quarter. The problem was that they turned the ball over five times. Only one of the Browns’ six scoring drives DIDN’T start in opposing territory! It’s not often that Dwayne Haskins throws for more yards in a game than Lamar Jackson, but it happened last week. Jackson threw for just 97 yards in an awful performance. Yes, he and the Ravens are likely to bounce back with a win here. But it won’t be by the margin the oddsmakers are calling for. I know some key pieces are out for Washington, including DE Chase Young and maybe WR Terry McLaurin, but at home I expect them to keep it closer than expected. 8* Washington |
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10-01-20 | Broncos +2 v. Jets | Top | 37-28 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
8* Denver (8:20 ET): This line opened up with Denver as the favorite, but quickly flipped upon the announcement that QB Brett Rypien would start for the Broncos. Rypien will already be the third different starting QB for the Broncos this season. While this seems dubious to say the least, I don’t think the line move towards the Jets is justified. Is Rypien really 4-5 points WORSE than last week’s starter Jeff Driskel? I don’t think so. Congrats if you grabbed the Jets when they were +3 earlier in the week, but betting on them to win is a different matter. I’m taking the points Thursday night. Denver wouldn’t be worth a look here normally, but facing the Jets on a Thursday night certainly opens the door. You have to remember that the Flyboys are also 0-3 SU this season, not to mention 0-3 ATS. The Broncos covered the number the first two weeks against a pair of teams that are a combined 6-0 SU this season (Tennessee and Pittsburgh). Things got out of hand quickly last week vs. Tampa Bay with them down 23-3 in the first half. An earlier turnover set the tone. Hopefully, Rypien can take care of the football, because if he can, the Jets are an easy victim. The Broncos aren’t the only team coming into Thursday night banged up. The Jets have a long injury list themselves, mostly on the offensive side of the ball. RB Le’Veon Bell as well as two receivers, Breshad Perriman and Denzel Mims, are out. Keep in mind the Jets offense ranks last or second to last in almost every statistical category. They’ve lost all three of their games by double digits, so this is very much a fade against a team that shouldn’t be favored over anybody right now. QB Sam Darnold threw TWO ‘pick-sixes’ last week at Indianapolis. Again, I disagree with the line move. 8* Denver |
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09-28-20 | Chiefs v. Ravens -3 | Top | 34-20 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
8* Baltimore (8:20 ET): Over its last five games, Kansas City has found itself down by double digits four times. Remarkably, they have won all five of those games, including the Super Bowl. They’ve even covered the spread in all but one, that being last week’s 23-20 OT win over the Chargers. That win required not one but TWO 58-yard field goals from Harrison Butker. But, as mentioned above, the Chiefs’ ATS win streak (which had been at 10 straight) did end. Now it’s time for their 11-game SU win streak to end as well. Baltimore has won its last 14 regular season games. You’d have to go all the way back to Week 4 of last season when they lost at home (to Cleveland!) to find the last regular season loss. The Ravens have been more impressive than the Chiefs in the first two games, dominating the Browns and Texans by an average of 24.5 PPG. They easily covered the spread in both games while also winning the total yardage battle. Something else that’s worth noting is Kansas City is being outgained on a yards per play basis this year. The Ravens are at home, laying a short number, thus I’ve got to take them no matter the opponent. Kansas City has been great in the past as an underdog w/ Mahomes as QB, but they’ve also never had to face an opponent that’s this good. Don’t forget that while KC won the Super Bowl, Baltimore was the more impressive team in the regular season last year. The Ravens are 16-8 ATS all-time on MNF. They have lost to the Chiefs each of the L2 years (and are 0-3 against them since ‘15), so don’t discount the “revenge factor” either. 8* Baltimore |
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09-27-20 | Bucs v. Broncos +6.5 | Top | 28-10 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 59 m | Show |
8* Denver (4:25 ET): This is the game this week where my power rankings differ the most from the actual game line. Now my power rankings obviously don’t know about Denver’s injury situation, the most notable being at QB, but still I believe they’ve been “downgraded” too much for this week’s tilt vs. Tampa Bay. The Broncos are actually 2-0 ATS so far having lost by a total of just seven points to the Titans and Steelers, two teams that are a combined 4-0 SU. Even with Tom Brady, the Bucs haven’t been impressive enough to justify being in this kind of price range on the road. Take the points. Because of Brady, the Buccaneers came into 2020 with very high expectations. Some might even say unreasonable expectations. They’re likely to be favored in as many 13 games, which is crazy for a team that won just 7 games LY and has a 40+ year old starting QB. While they did win last week, that was at home vs. Carolina, who is one of the worst teams in the league. While they played the Saints tough in New Orleans, they still lost by double digits and keep in mind that the Saints just lost to the Raiders Monday night. Tampa Bay was actually outgained by Carolina LW, 427-339. They were fortunate to force four turnovers. But concerning is the fact that Brady seems to have inherited former QB James Winston’s turnover bug. The Bucs have five of those in two games. Over the L18 games, the Broncos have gone 11-7 ATS and that includes 6-5 when Drew Lock is NOT the starting QB. Jeff Driskell will start in Week 3 and he very nearly led a come from behind victory at Pittsburgh last week. Brady is just 2-4 ATS L6 tries as a road favorite of 6+ points. 8* Denver |
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09-27-20 | 49ers v. Giants +3.5 | Top | 36-9 | Loss | -112 | 16 h 35 m | Show |
8* NY Giants (1:00 ET): Who would have thought that without both Saquon Barkley (out for year) and Sterling Shepard it would be the Giants dealing with LESS issues on the injury front? The 49ers come into Week 3 as banged up as any team I can ever recall. They will be without their two top running backs, QB Jimmy Garoppolo, their top three defensive players (Bosa, Thomas, Sherman) and top pass catcher. It will be Nick Mullens starting Sunday as the team plays for the second straight week at Giants Stadium. Last week, the 49ers still managed to down the Jets 31-13. But that’s arguably the worst team in football they were up against and they already had the lead when the injuries began to pile up. In fact, they scored a TD on their first offensive play from scrimmage. They can’t count on doing so again here as the Giants defense has played much better than expected, giving up only 43 total pts in two games including only 10 in the second half. Even w/o Barkley, they very nearly came from behind to defeat Chicago on the road last week, a game where they allowed just 304 total yards. Even with a poor ATS history as a home dog of 7 points or less, I see the Giants potentially pulling the outright upset here. The 49ers did stay out East all week, but even under a normal circumstance this is a tough spot. That they lost so many players last week only compounds matters. Facing a 49ers’ defense that is a shell of its former self, I expect Giants QB Daniel Jones and the rest of the offense to have a surprisingly good day. The 49ers were likely to regress this season anyway; the injuries pretty much confirm that. 8* NY Giants |
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09-27-20 | Texans +4.5 v. Steelers | Top | 21-28 | Loss | -106 | 16 h 35 m | Show |
8* Houston (1:00 ET): Don’t blame the Texans too much for being 0-2; all they’ve had to do so far is face the Chiefs and the Ravens. Those are the two best teams in the AFC, if not the entire NFL. The task is only slightly less formidable in Week 3 when they travel to Pittsburgh to face the Steelers. The Steelers, like those other teams, are also 2-0. But last week at home they only barely survived a Broncos team with Jeff Driskell at QB. This line has come down for a reason and I smell upset. Believe it or not, but Houston actually outgained KC and Baltimore on a per play basis. Being -3 in TO margin to those two means trouble though and that’s what Houston was. This was a team that started 0-3 SU in 2018 and still found a way to make the playoffs. They also made the playoffs after an 0-2 start in 2015. So they won’t be hanging their heads yet. ''That's all we can do is just put our head down and grind,'' DeShaun Watson said. ''Just work and try to do what we do and see what the outcome comes like. Of course, we don't want to be 0-3, but that's not the main thing that's on our minds right now.'' Houston still has Watson at QB and he’s far better than any QB the Steelers have faced thus far. I look for Watson to have a big game here and for WR Will Fuller to bounce back here after being held w/o a catch by Baltimore. The Texans are 8-1 ATS their last nine tries off a DD loss at home. Again, Pittsburgh needed to make a late stop LW vs. Denver, up 26-21, to preserve the win against a team playing w/ a backup QB in an emergency situation. The Black & Gold has covered just two of the last eight times it’s been a home favorite. 8* Houston |
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09-24-20 | Dolphins v. Jaguars -2.5 | Top | 31-13 | Loss | -126 | 27 h 60 m | Show |
10* Jacksonville (8:20 ET): So much for “tanking.” The Jaguars have been far more competitive than was expected the first two weeks, knocking off Indianapolis here at home and then nearly upsetting Tennessee on the road. That 2-0 ATS start has them favored at home on a short week and honestly this is probably one of the few instances we’d ever consider laying points with the Jags. Miami, who ironically overachieved LY in what was supposed to be a “tanking” season, has looked poor in the first two games, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Some felt Miami was going to be able to contend in the AFC East this season. I did not. Two weeks in and their fans are already calling for Tua! Losses to the Patriots and Bills have been a “cold dose of reality” as both contests saw the Dolphins play from behind the whole way. The defense was atrocious last week as it allowed Buffalo to gain 8.9 yards per play! That’s good news for Jags QB Gardner Minshew II, who has been surprisingly efficient so far in completing over 75% of his passes. The Dolphins’ pass defense is at the bottom of the league right now. Jacksonville is 4-0 ATS in Thursday night home games. They could easily be 2-0 heading into this game, but missed an XP early in the 4Q LW at Tennessee and then gave up the GW FG in the final two minutes. Special teams play wasn’t good either and the defense didn’t create much pressure. But despite losing, the Jags outgained the Titans 480-354. I can’t see the Dolphins correcting their issues on a short week, playing on the road. 10* Jacksonville |
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09-20-20 | Lions +7 v. Packers | Top | 21-42 | Loss | -140 | 15 h 55 m | Show |
10* Detroit (1:00 ET): “The Lions should have won last week” is something Lions fans are probably sick of hearing at this point. However, last week may have taken the cake. Since 2006, NFL teams with a 17+ point lead entering the 4Q were 779-2 SU. That record is now 779-3 SU after the Lions inexplicably gave up three touchdowns to Mitch Trubisky (who had been playing HORRIBLE up to that point) last week. That 27-23 loss marked Detroit’s 11th when leading in the 4Q under Matt Patricia, who started here in 2018. It was their 10th loss in a row overall and they are just 1-9 SU L10 games decided by 8 pts or less. Last year’s two meetings between the Packers & Lions pretty much encapsulated the two seasons. Consider that GB never led in regulation in either game. Yet they won both by kicking GW field goals as time expired. Per Elias, it was just the second time EVER a team swept a season series in which it never held a lead in regulation (the other was in 1977). The Packers were an extremely fraudulent 13-3 SU team a year ago as they went 9-1 SU In games decided by 8 pts or less and only outscored opponents by 63 points. For comparison, the 10-6 Vikings had a +104 point differential LY. This is clearly a contrarian play as much is being made over the Lions injuries on the defensive side of the ball. Aaron Rodgers had a big game last week in Minnesota, but for some reason always has his share of problems with the Lions. Including LY’s two miraculous escapes, the Packers are 0-6 ATS the L3 years vs. Detroit and just 2-4 SU. Given how lopsided public betting figures to be on this game, it’s interesting the number hasn’t moved. Given that they allowed 7.8 yards per play last week (league-high) to Minnesota, maybe it's the Packers defense that everyone needs to be concerned about. Take the points. 10* Detroit |
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09-20-20 | Falcons v. Cowboys -3.5 | Top | 39-40 | Loss | -102 | 15 h 55 m | Show |
10* Dallas (1:00 ET): I’ve watched as this line has been bet down all week and decided now is the time to act. I just can’t see the Cowboys, a team I project to finish near the top of the NFC, starting 0-2. I will caution you not to put much stock inthe fact Atlanta gained 500+ yards against Seattle last week. They trailed most of the way and ran a TON of plays. The Falcons also don’t have the same caliber of defense as the Rams, who were able to hold Dallas to 17 points last week. The line move is an overreaction to America’s Team losing a national TV game where they were favored. Lay the points. Cowboys QB Dak Prescott should have a big game Sunday. Last week, Russell Wilson completed 31 of 35 pass attempts against this Falcons’ defense for 322 yards and four touchdowns. Cornerback is an issue for Atlanta and that’s a problem when facing a Dallas offense that may have the best group of starting WR’s in the league. The “success” this Atlanta defense had in the 2nd half of last season may have saved HC Dan Quinn’s job, but it was artificial, built on facing mostly weak offenses. While it is true Atlanta has covered each of its last four road games (were at home LW), it is also true that they were just 4-16 ATS in the 20 previous road games. Dallas has covered three consecutive home openers and this line should be at where it opened. There will be fans present. The Cowboys are a much better team than the Falcons and that should be obvious by the time this one is over. 10* Dallas |
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09-14-20 | Steelers v. Giants +7 | Top | 26-16 | Loss | -138 | 34 h 36 m | Show |
10* NY Giants (7:15 ET): Pittsburgh is certainly being priced as a playoff team entering 2020. They have better than 50% odds at the books and should end up being favored in 9 or 10 games, barring significant injuries. Of course, speaking of significant injuries, the Steelers lost Ben Roethlisberger early last season and wound up getting 13 very subpar games at QB from the hideous combo of Mason Rudolph and Duck Hodgers. Big Ben is set to return for ‘20, but how likely is that he’ll be his old self? The Giants enter the year with very little expectations. They were 4-12 SU in 2019. QB Daniel Jones, who many questioned going so high in the draft, had a bit of a rough rookie campaign. The team was tied with the Chargers for worst TO margin in the league (-17). Jones lost 11 fumbles himself, but did throw a team rookie-record 24 TD passes. Saquon Barkley should no longer be limited by an ankle injury that slowed him down most of last season. I’m counting on Barkley to have a strong Week 1 performance here. This is a lot of points to lay, on the road, in Week 1. On Sunday, we saw two road favorites of a similar size - Philadelphia and Indianapolis both lose OUTRIGHT. I’m very much “playing against the line move” here as I’m not convinced Roethlisberger will be the “Big Ben of old” and the Giants should be more competitive for 1st year HC Joe Judge. The Steelers have struggled as road favorites under HC Mike Tomlin, going 2-5-1 ATS their L8 times, and they are also just 2-7 ATS L9 season openers. Take the points. 10* NY Giants |
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09-13-20 | Raiders v. Panthers +3 | Top | 34-30 | Loss | -117 | 13 h 16 m | Show |
10* Carolina (1:00 ET): Call me crazy, but I think Carolina is going to win more games than expected this season. That still might mean a last place finish in the NFC South, but new HC Matt Rhule has certainly inherited worse projects at Baylor and Temple than what he’s faced with now in the NFL. Perhaps the biggest reason for optimism would be QB Teddy Bridgewater, who is a remarkable 16-2 ATS in his career as an underdog, the best such record in the Super Bowl era. Bridgewater will be coached by not just Rhule, but also QB Coach Joe Brady, who engineered the record-setting LSU offense last season. While the Panthers return the fewest number of snaps from a year ago, Las Vegas is #2 in that department. I am not particularly high on the Raiders going into their first year in Sin City. This was a team that somehow won 7 games despite getting outscored by 106 points. This year, I am projecting them to finish LAST in the AFC West. Though it’s only Week 1, the Silver and Black have never fared well in these 1 PM ET kickoffs and I don’t suspect that’s about to change. The team is also 0-3-1 ATS its L4 times as a road favorite. If my belief that Carolina is going to win more games than expected holds, then this is precisely the kind of game they are likely to “steal.” The Raiders didn’t even average 20 PPG last season, the third year in a row that was the case, and will be starting two rookie receivers. Then you have the defense, which in three years under coordinator Paul Guenther has ranked 31st in points allowed and 32nd (last) in yards per play. That unit is breaking in five new starters. Even before factoring in any kind of homefield advantage here for the Panthers, I feel this line is too high. Take the points. 10* Carolina |
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09-13-20 | Bears v. Lions -2.5 | Top | 27-23 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 16 m | Show |
10* Detroit (1:00 ET): Matt Patricia enters 2020 firmly on the hot seat in the Motor City. Fortunately for him, I project his Lions to improve upon LY’s 3-12-1 SU record quite a bit. It starts with better health, particularly at the QB position. In the eight games with Matt Stafford in the lineup, the Lions were pretty competitive (3-4-1). They were 0-8 without him, getting subpar QB play. This was a team that SHOULD have finished with a better record though; they led at the half six times. They were 3-8 SU in one-score games. The Lions’ pythagorean win differential last year was -2.9. That measures actual vs. expected wins, the latter based on point differential. Believe it or not, in a wide open NFC North, I can see the Lions going from worst to first! The division’s two playoff teams from last year - Green Bay and Minnesota - are both set to regress. Chicago, who is Detroit’s Week 1 opponent, is a bit of a “wild card.” Bears HC Matt Nagy surprised some by electing to start Mitchell Trubisky at QB here. The team ponied up big bucks to sign Nick Foles in the offseason. The Lions are 0-4 SU vs. the Bears the L2 years. All but one of those losses came by one score. But Chicago covered only one road game all season LY and is 0-6 ATS L6. This is only the 2nd time Detroit has been a division favorite under Patricia. Look for Stafford to air it out and justify the price range. 10* Detroit |
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02-02-20 | 49ers v. Chiefs | Top | 20-31 | Win | 100 | 27 h 49 m | Show |
10* Kansas City (6:30 ET): So, after much consternation, the Chiefs are my pick to cover the spread in Super Bowl LIV. While I agree with the oddsmakers’ assertion that these teams do rate pretty evenly, what this play ultimately comes down to is taking the more proven commodity. Admittedly, San Francisco was my pick to be the most improved team in the league this year and went from 4-12 to 15-3 SU. But Kansas City has won 10+ games each of the L5 seasons, not to mention has won/covered eight in a row coming into Sunday. They’ll have the best player on the field (Patrick Mahomes) and I believe will win their 1st SB in 50 years. Despite falling behind Houston 24-0 in the Divisional Round and Tennessee 17-7 in the AFC Championship Game, the Chiefs were able to storm back and win both games by double digits. Mahomes and the offense have been absurdly efficient in the playoff, scoring a touchdown on 60% of all drives, including seven straight vs. the Texans. It won’t be that easy against the 49ers, who rank 2nd in total defense. But slowing this Chiefs’ offense down is easier said than done. In the end, I trust Mahomes to put up more points than Jimmy Garoppolo. Don’t discount what the Chiefs’ defense has been doing either. During their 8-0 SU/ATS run, they’ve held the opposition to an average of just 13.7 PPG. In the regular season, they (like the 49ers) were a top 10 scoring defense. Interestingly enough, in the last 18 Super Bowls, the team with the fewer wins has gone 15-2-1 ATS. That’s KC here. The Chiefs have covered the spread by an average of 7 pts during the 8-0 ATS run and Andy Reid has always been outstanding off a bye, going 21-8 ATS in his career, including 2-0 this season. 10* Kansas City |
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01-19-20 | Titans +8 v. Chiefs | Top | 24-35 | Loss | -130 | 72 h 51 m | Show |
10* Tennessee (3:05 ET): The Titans obviously made a lot of history last week in what was also a big win for the sportsbooks. Baltimore had been 36-0 all-time (SU) as a double digit favorite, the only franchise never to lose as DD chalk. They’d also never lost at home as more than 8.5-pt favorite. But the Titans changed all that with a 28-12 upset and are now 8-1 ATS all-time as underdogs of 7 or more under HC Mike Vrabel, pulling SEVEN outright upsets along the way including a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS this season. Kansas City won its Divisional Round game against Houston 51-31, but anyone that watched knows it wasn’t that easy as the Chiefs had to rally from an early 24-0 hole. Outscoring the Texans 51-7 the rest of the way was quite an achievement, however, here they are up against a far more stout team on the defensive side of the ball. Even with last week’s ATS victory, the Chiefs are still only 2-10 ATS all-time at Arrowhead in the playoffs. Tennessee has already beaten New England and Baltimore to get here while all Kansas City did was beat Houston, the team I had rated the lowest coming into the playoffs. My number for this game is +4.5 so there’s clear value on the Titans, who have already beaten the Chiefs this year, 35-32 (+4) in Nashville back in Week 10. I had Tennessee in that game. The Titans defense has allowed just 25 points in two playoff games while the offense features RB Henry, who has gone for 180+ yds in both games. Since Ryan Tannehill became the starting QB, Tennessee has gone 9-3 SU w/ a point differential of +82. While they were outgained by Baltimore, that was because of garbage time. I passed on the Titans last week, not here. 10* Tennessee |
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01-11-20 | Vikings +7.5 v. 49ers | Top | 10-27 | Loss | -130 | 26 h 0 m | Show |
10* Minnesota (4:30 ET): Despite needing OT to get the ‘W’, I thought the Vikings looked very impressive in their Wild Card triumph in New Orleans. Not that it was unexpected on this end. I made the following statements in my analysis of the game. “I think we’re getting a great number here…. People REALLY seem to be underrating the Vikings.” Sure enough, they pulled the outright upset in a VERY tough place to win. Six seeds have not done well in the Divisional Rd recently (0-8 SU L8 years), but I actually had Minnesota rated as the 3rd best NFC team coming into these playoffs. Take the points. Before the season, San Francisco was my choice to be the most improved team in the league. Sure enough, they made the huge jump from 4-12 to 13-3 SU. But now they must deal with the weight of expectations and this is a roster with little in the way of postseason experience. Also, the 49ers have not done well as a favorite of six points or more. They are a money-burning 1-12-1 ATS in that role since 2014, including 0-6-1 ATS this season. Four of Minnesota’s six losses this year were by seven points or fewer. The last five games of the 49ers’ regular season were all decided in the final 10 seconds. Coming off the bye, the 49ers’ defense is as healthy as it’s been in awhile. But let’s not undercut what Minnesota’s defense is capable of as it just held the Saints to 324 total yards and 100 of that was from Taysom Hill. Niners QB Jimmy Garoppolo, making his 1st ever playoff start here, played the worst game of his career against Mike Zimmer’s defense. It was last year and he threw three interceptions in a 24-16 loss. The last nine quarterbacks to make their first playoff start have combined to go 2-7 ATS. For the Vikings, I’m not as concerned with WR Adam Thielen’s status now that RB Dalvin Cook is back. As you saw last week, this offense is a lot better with a healthy Cook (missed last two regular season games). 10* Minnesota |
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01-05-20 | Seahawks v. Eagles +2.5 | Top | 17-9 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 35 m | Show |
10* Philadelphia (4:40 ET): Road teams have dominated the Wild Card Round the last two years, going 8-0 ATS and 5-3 SU. However, none of them were favored as Seattle is here. You actually have to go all the way back to 2015, when three of the four home teams were getting points, to find the last home dog in the WC round. My numbers patently disagree with this line as they say the Eagles should be favored by 4 points! The reason for the discrepancy is not only due to all the Eagles' injuries, but also the disparity in records. But don't be fooled. Take the points. Seattle is a very fraudulent 11-5 SU team. They finished w/ a +7 YTD point differential, 2nd worst among playoff teams (only Houston's -7 was worse). The Eagles, despite winning two fewer games, finished w/ a +31 YTD point differential. The Seahawks' point differential is more indicative of a 9-win team. It would be very fair to place this team among the very worst 11+ win teams in NFL history. Key to their success was Russell Wilson's playmaking, but more so extremely good fortune in close games. They were a league best 10-2 SU in games decided by eight points or less. That's right - they had only ONE win by more than 8 pts and it was against Arizona back in Wk 4! One of those close wins was here in Philadelphia back in Week 12, 17-9 as a 1-pt favorite. This is the only regular season rematch of the WC round. Obviously, it's very hard to beat the same team on the road twice in the same season and Philadelphia always seems to "turn it up a notch" here in the playoffs. Though this will be Carson Wentz's first career playoff start (really!), the Eagles have gone 5-0 ATS the L2 years in the postseason & they've been an underdog every time! They've pulled four outright upsets, the only SU loss coming LY in New Orleans, and of course won the Super Bowl two years ago. So Doug Pederson's team being "overlooked" is nothing new. Once again, they make the doubters pay. 10* Philadelphia |
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01-05-20 | Vikings +9 v. Saints | Top | 26-20 | Win | 100 | 41 h 0 m | Show |
8* Minnesota (1:00 ET): As per usual, Kirk Cousins' poor record against good teams will be front and center here. The Vikings QB is a shocking 0-15 SU and 1-13-1 ATS against teams that won at least 12 regular season games. While I'm not willing to bet that Cousins can lead his team to an outright win in the Mercedes Benz Superdome on Sunday, I do see him and the Vikes keeping this one close. Maybe it's because they ended their regular season w/ B2B home losses, but people REALLY seem to be underrating Minnesota in this spot. It's the first time since Cousins arrived that they are getting more than seven points. My power ratings say the spread should only be -4.5. Take the points. New Orleans has been on fire down the stretch and is a league-best 11-3 ATS since Week 3. That includes a 5-0 record when Drew Brees was out with an injury. But the Saints are far from "sure bet" in this instance. They are just 2-5 ATS their L7 home playoff games and each of their L7 playoff games (whether home or road) have been decided by eight points or less. They actually haven't won a playoff game by more than six points since the 2011 Wild Card Round vs. Detroit. Hot as they were down the stretch, the Saints had some good luck this year w/ an 8-1 SU record in games decided by eight points or less. I believe we're getting a great number here. The spread would have been much shorter had this game been played just a few weeks ago. The Vikings did not have RB Dalvin Cook for either of the L2 regular season games (all offensive starters rested last week), so the offensive numbers from those games are misleading. Cook is set to return here, which will be a big difference maker. The Vikings have not lost three in a row since 2016 and are 2-0 ATS since when off B2B losses. Going into last week's meaningless regular season finale, they had been 25-9-1 ATS off a loss under HC Zimmer including 4-0 this season. Four of Minnesota's six losses this year have been by 7 pts or less. Their defense allows fewer PPG compared to the Saints. 8* Minnesota |
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01-04-20 | Bills +3 v. Texans | Top | 19-22 | Push | 0 | 21 h 31 m | Show |
10* Buffalo (4:30 ET): For many, the Bills making the playoffs was a surprise. I know I wasn't expecting it. They won only six games LY, but increased that number to 10 in 2019, which is one more win than they had when they made the playoffs in Sean McDermott's first season (2017). While they certainly rode a fairly easy schedule to get here, give Buffalo credit for outscoring its opponents by 55 points in the regular season, a top 10 differential and that's after losing the L2 games (rested starters in Wk 17). The defense is quite legit as it ranked 2nd in scoring (16.2 PPG) and 3rd in yards allowed (298.3 YPG). If it's true that "defense wins in the playoffs," then the Bills might be in better shape than we all think. Houston also went 10-6 SU, which was enough to win the AFC South. When Colts QB Andrew Luck shockingly hung up his cleats, most figured the Texans would run away with this division. But they were by no means a dominant team. They were the only playoff team to get outscored this year (-7 point differential). The defense really fell off a cliff in the second half, which was tied to J.J. Watt being absent from the lineup. While Watt's return for the playoffs seems to be the headline story here, make no mistake about it - the Bills still have a better defense than the Texans. Buffalo infamously has not won a playoff game since 1995, the league third longest active drought. But Houston has hardly been a playoff juggernaut, going 1-3 SU/ATS under HC Bill O'Brien, including an outright loss here at home to the Colts LY. While Watt is back, the health of WR Will Fuller may be of greater concern for the Texans. QB DeShaun Watson simply isn't the same w/o Fuller. Bills QB Josh Allen was actually one of three QB's to run for more yds than Watson this year. While the Bills allowed the fewest yards per carry to QB's (2.8), the Texans allowed the second most (5.6). Excluding last week's game when they rested starters, the Bills are 10-5-1 ATS as dogs since Allen became the starter. They also went 6-2 SU on the road (6-1-1 ATS) averaging more points than they did at home. Houston is 8-15 ATS as a favorite the L3 seasons (nine outright losses) including 1-6 this season. Not only do the Bills have the better defense, they are the better team. Take the points. 10* Buffalo |
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12-29-19 | Falcons v. Bucs | Top | 28-22 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 38 m | Show |
10* Tampa Bay (1:00 ET): HC Dan Quinn has improbably saved his job in Atlanta thanks to a 5-2 run down the stretch. (GM Thomas Dimitroff will be returning as well). While the decision by Falcons' owner Arthur Blank had to be a nice "late Christmas gift" for the Quinn and Dimitroff families, I think it saps a lot of the supposed motivation we were supposed to see from this team in Week 17. Before the decision was made on Saturday, I was reading a lot of Falcons backers that felt the motivation to preserve their coach's job would carry the team here. Remember that one of Atlanta's two losses in these last seven games came to the team they facing in Week 17, that being Tampa Bay. The Bucs (7-8) have a better record than the Falcons (6-9) and looked every bit the better team back in Week 12 when they won 35-22 as a three-point underdog. For us, the Bucs were a signature *10* Ultimate Power release that day. The score was even a bit misleading as Tampa Bay missed THREE extra points and Atlanta scored a TD in garbage time. While Atlanta seems to be getting a lot of credit for how its played in the second half of the season, the Bucs are the better team and have also improved during the same timeframe. Really, they should have a better record than 7-8 SU as they've outgained and outscored their opponents this season. Last week was a classic "false final" as they outgained the Texans by over 200 yds, but lost by a field goal thanks to FOUR James Winston interceptions (one returned for a TD). While Winston's 28 INT's lead the league, he also has 31 TD passes and leads the league in passing yards. Despite missing both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin last week, he still threw for 335 yards, so the absences hardly hurt the offense. My numbers suggest TB should be laying almost a touchdown here. 10* Tampa Bay |
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12-29-19 | Browns v. Bengals +3 | Top | 23-33 | Win | 100 | 20 h 41 m | Show |
8* Cincinnati (1:00 ET): Backing the team with the worst record in the league may not sound good on paper, but Cincinnati is "free and clear" here having already sewn up the #1 pick in next spring's Draft. Were they in a position where a win might hurt them (i.e. draft position), the tendency would be to lay off. But expect the Bengals to come out motivated for Week 17 against division rival Cleveland in what looks like a very winnable game. Meanwhile, the underachieving Browns may very well mail this one in. Take the points. Cincinnati almost won last week, but came up just short in overtime, losing at Miami 38-35. They had an improbable rally just to get to OT, scoring two touchdowns and two 2-pt conversions in the final 30 seconds to tie the game. QB Andy Dalton is still auditioning to be a starting QB for next year (likely somewhere else), so he won't be phoning it in here. Despite coming at 1-14 SU, the Bengals are better than you think as last week was their 8th loss by one score. Back in Week 14, they outgained the Browns by 118 yards (451-333) w/ a 27-17 edge in first downs, but lost 27-19 as Cleveland had an early pick-six. The Browns have been miserable as a favorite this year, a reflection of their disappointing season. They've lost four of the nine games in which they've been favored. Three of those four losses have been on the road. Two of those have been to backup quarterbacks and the other was by two scores at Arizona two weeks ago. Freddie Kitchens is in way over his head as a NFL head coach and was yet another poor hire by the Browns. 8* Cincinnati |
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12-29-19 | Saints v. Panthers +14 | Top | 42-10 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 25 m | Show |
8* Carolina (1:00 ET): New Orleans appears to be "peaking" at the right time as they've won five of their last six games to get to 12-3 SU. They still have a chance to earn a first round bye. In addition to obviously needing to win themselves, they would need either a loss by the Packers (unlikely) or by the 49ers. If both the 49ers and Packers were to lose, then the Saints could even move up to the #1 seed in the NFC. But because of these playoff scenarios, this line is inflated. I'm taking the points. The Panthers' season has gone off the rails as they fired Ron Rivera (foolish) a few weeks back. That came after four straight losses and the streak has now hit seven under interim HC Perry Fewell. Last week was a horrific showing in Indianapolis as they lost 38-6 by giving up two special teams touchdowns. They were also -3 in turnovers. This is a different team than the one that should have beaten the Saints in New Orleans back in Week 12 (lost 34-31). Will Grier is now starting at QB as opposed to Kyle Allen. But still, this number is way too large. Interestingly enough, the Saints have lost outright as a division favorite of -6 or more each of the last two years in Week 17. Both losses came with them having clinched a playoff berth. Ironically, last year's loss was to a Carolina team that came in on a seven-game losing streak. While it may seem like the Saints are peaking now, they did trail Tennessee on the road 14-0 last week. Just too many points to lay in a NFL road game. 8* Carolina |
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12-23-19 | Packers v. Vikings -5 | Top | 23-10 | Loss | -110 | 93 h 11 m | Show |
10* Minnesota (8:15 ET): Green Bay may very well end up winning this division, but in the opinion of myself and many others, Minnesota is the best team in the NFC North. The Vikings have a top four point differential in the league entering Week 16 (+119), more than double that of the Packers (+47). In the first head to head meeting (back in Week 2), which was at Lambeau Field, Green Bay did win 21-16. But the Vikings outgained them 7.0 to 4.9 on a per play basis, a huge margin for any game, let alone for the loser. At home (where they're a perfect 6-0 SU), look for the Vikings to get their revenge Monday night. Green Bay winning that first meeting in spite of the yard per play differential is somewhat emblematic of the kind of "fluky" season that they are having. Despite being 11-3, they've been outgained on both a per game and per play basis. That's very rare. They are also a very fortunate 7-1 SU in games decided by eight points or less. That YTD point differential is not what you'd expect from an 11-3 team. There have been a number of games throughout the year where the Packers probably did not "deserve" to win, but did. One of them was a Monday night game at Detroit where they trailed nearly the entire game but won 23-22. The Vikings are the league's only undefeated team at home. They aren't just winning these home games either; they're blowing teams out by an average margin of 13.5 PPG. Now a lot will be made of Kirk Cousins' 0-8 ATS record on MNF and the fact he'll be without RB Dalvin Cook here. But Green Bay is just 2-6 ATS its last eight appearances on MNF. Cousins is also 13-3 ATS as a single digit favorite, including 8-1 ATS at home, since joining the Vikings. Green Bay has not won here at U.S. Bank Stadium since it opened in 2016. Bottom line is the Vikings are the better team here. 10* Minnesota |
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12-22-19 | Chiefs v. Bears +7 | Top | 26-3 | Loss | -133 | 22 h 21 m | Show |
8* Chicago (8:20 ET): The Bears saw their already slim playoff hopes dashed last week and to make matters worse it came at the hands of old nemesis Aaron Rodgers. At the start of the season, I called the Bears a prime candidate to regress and regress they have as they've dropped from 12 to 7 wins (w/ two games still to play). But in spite of said regression, not everything is bad in the Windy City. They've got a defense that's still giving up only 18.1 PPG. While they may have lost 21-13 to the Packers last week, the Bears actually finished with a 415-292 edge in total yards and had eight more first downs. It was a -3 turnover margin that bit them in the end. Kansas City has won the AFC West again and is just looking to improve its playoff position these last two weeks. As a division champ, they could still finish anywhere from the #1 to #4 seed. A first round bye, which the top two seeds get, is looking less likely after New England's win Saturday. But still this is a team that obviously must be respected as they come in riding a four-game win streak, during which they've even played some defense! The last four opponents have scored a combined 45 points, a big reason why the Chiefs are also 4-0 ATS during that stretch. In taking the points here, there obviously is a bit of concern over whether or not the Bears' offense will be able to "keep up" with the Chiefs. But I expect QB Mitchell Trubisky, who was infamously drafted ahead of Patrick Mahomes (and DeShaun Watson), to come out motivated for the final home game. Trubisky has played better down the stretch and even owns the NFL's longest active streak of five games without an interception. He's also 7-2 ATS in his career in primetime games. Don't discount the ability of the Bears' defense to keep KC's offense in check either. Then there's the homefield advantage as the L3 seasons have seen Chicago go 15-8 ATS at Soldier Field, including 6-1-1 ATS when getting points. This spread was bet up and is now simply too high, having hit a key number. 8* Chicago |
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12-22-19 | Raiders v. Chargers -6.5 | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -120 | 65 h 27 m | Show |
10* LA Chargers (4:05 ET): Looking at the AFC West standings, something immediately jumps out to me. No, I'm not talking about the fact that the Chiefs have already clinched another division title. It's the fact that the Raiders, with a -112 YTD point differential, are somehow still in second place. Meanwhile, the Chargers are in last place despite having actually outscored opponents this season. LA can at least pull even with Oakland in the standings (were they to win this week), and I think they will. I'll lay the points as the Chargers are clearly the superior team here despite having one less win coming in. Last week's game was all too emblematic of the kind of season the Chargers are having. They basically had the same number of total yards as the Vikings (345-344). But SEVEN turnovers resulted in a 39-10 loss. Another game worth pointing to is what happened the first time they faced the Raiders. That game, which took place on a Thursday night, saw LA lose the turnover battle 3-0. They outgained the Raiders and had eight more first downs. But if you can't protect the football, you're not going to win in this league. Still, last week was the first time all year that the Chargers lost a game by more than a touchdown. Oakland was once 6-4 and getting talked up as a potential playoff darkhorse. Since that time, the Silver and Black have gotten badly exposed, losing four straight. Three of those losses were by a combined 83 points. Then came last week's gag job vs. Jacksonville, the final game they'll ever play in Oakland. I was on the Jaguars, noting the Raiders' poor point differential, which by the way now is 4th worst in the league. This is a really bad team as five of their eight losses have been by at least 18 points. 10* LA Chargers |
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12-22-19 | Saints v. Titans +3 | Top | 38-28 | Loss | -125 | 19 h 23 m | Show |
8* Tennessee (1:00 ET): Saturday's win by the Texans officially ended the Titans' hopes of winning the division (AFC South). Losing here at home to the Texans last week really stung, but Tennessee can still make the playoffs as a Wild Card. It's down to them or Pittsburgh. Let us not forget that last week was just the second time the Titans lost since Ryan Tannehill took over at QB for the ineffective Marcus Mariota (6-2 SU). My power rankings say they should be favored in this spot and under HC Mike Vrabel, the team is 4-2 ATS as a home dog w/ four outright wins. New Orleans is off a very impressive performance on Monday Night Football. They throttled the Colts 34-7 to clinch their own division. Drew Brees set two NFL records in the win, one for single-game completion percentage (29 for 30, 96.7%) and he also became the NFL's all-time leader in TD passes. Coming off high-profile win like that, it's no wonder the public loves Brees and the Saints here, but it's a short week and now they are on the road (outdoors too). The Titans' defense (19.9 PPG allowed) is a lot better than the Colts, so look for Brees to be far less comfortable this week. I was skeptical at first, but Tannehill has done a great job as the starter for Tennessee, leading the league in yards per pass attempt (9.5). Reports on the status of RB Henry are conflicting, but the Saints have given up an average of 28.2 points in four games vs. top 8 rushing offenses (Titans are 8th in rushing). A change at kicker will be a positive as the Titans are last in the league in field goals made. Tennessee easily could have scored more last week as they gained 6.4 yards per play. But they had a FG blocked and Tannehill threw an INT near the goal line. 8* Tennessee |
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12-21-19 | Texans v. Bucs +3 | Top | 23-20 | Push | 0 | 94 h 6 m | Show |
10* Tampa Bay (1:00 ET): Houston took a big step towards winning its second straight AFC South title Sunday by beating Tennessee 24-21 as a three-point underdog. However, they were outgained in the contest (432-374) and gave up 6.4 yards per play. I had to sweat out an Under, which was my 10* Total of the Year. The fact is I was lucky to win it as the Texans defense forced only three punts (just 1 in the second half) as it predictably is not the same since JJ Watt went down with a pec injury. I believe an explosive Bucs offense is going to be able to have its way in this one. Credit the job HC Bruce Arians is doing in his first season in Tampa Bay. When this team was 3-7 SU, they easily could have rolled over and "packed it in" for the season. Instead, the Bucs have won four in a row for the first time since 2016. While they haven't beaten anyone the caliber of Houston during this stretch, the Bucs have beaten two other AFC South teams - Indianapolis & Jacksonville. Despite QB Jameis Winston's propensity for turning the ball over, he is leading an attack that has scored 38 pts B2B weeks. Winston has thrown for 467 and 446 yards in those games. It was a mistake I made going against the Bucs last week as they easily beat the undermanned Lions 38-17. But I didn't like them laying points on the road. Now they are a home dog in a situation where my own power ratings say they should be a slight favorite! The Texans are 1-5 ATS as favorites this season. You might be shocked to learn that the Bucs have the league's 13th best point differential (+18), which is just ahead of the division leading Texans. Houston can clinch the AFC South this week w/ a win here, but w/ a rematch against Tennessee set to take place next week, doesn't it seem almost "preordained" that that game would decide the division? 10* Tampa Bay |
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12-15-19 | Jaguars +7 v. Raiders | Top | 20-16 | Win | 100 | 50 h 44 m | Show |
8* Jacksonville (4:05 ET): Well, we're going with some real "beauties" in this 3-pack, no? This Jags-Raiders game is as ugly as any on the slate not named "Dolphins @ Giants." While Oakland would seem to be a respectable team because of its 6-7 SU record, they have lost three straight games - all by 21 points or more. They've failed to cover four in a row. There may not be a team w/ a more misleading record in the league right now as the Silver and Black have a YTD point differential of -108, just seven points better than the 2-11 Giants. The Raiders should not be laying a touchdown to anybody right now. Not to be outdone, Jacksonville is on a five-game losing streak - SU and ATS - and all five losses have been by at least 17 points. It hasn't mattered whether it's been Gardner Minshew II or Nick Foles in at QB, the results have not been pretty. Last week the Jags got thoroughly outclassed at home by the Chargers, losing 45-10 in a game where they were outgained by more than a 2:1 margin. Still it's interesting to see how the market has shifted against Jacksonville for this one. It was never more than a 4.5-point underdog in any of those L5 games. This is likely to be the final game the Raiders ever play in Oakland. They are scheduled to move to Las Vegas for the 2020 season. While I'm sure there will be some emotion in the "Black Hole," that still doesn't justify the Raiders laying more than 3.5 points for just the second time all season. The first was here at home vs. Cincinnati (were -12.5) and they only won that game 17-10. They haven't won since. Oakland has gone off as the favorite in only three games all season! I see Jacksonville playing better than usual this week as these are two teams I have rated very evenly. 8* Jacksonville |
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12-15-19 | Bucs v. Lions +4 | Top | 38-17 | Loss | -105 | 47 h 39 m | Show |
8* Detroit (1:00 ET): The Lions' season has taken a drastic downturn with six straight losses. They've lost 9 of 10 since a 2-0-1 start and what makes that all the more frustrating is they've been in a majority of these games. Last week's 20-7 loss to the Vikings was the first game all season in which the Lions never led. Incredibly, they have led or at least been tied in the 4th quarter in all but three games (two vs. Minnesota, one vs. Dallas). Injuries have certainly taken a toll, but I still don't believe they should be getting more than a field goal this week at home vs. the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay has fought its way back to 6-7 SU by winning three in row. They probably deserved a better fate than pushing as three-point favorites in 38-35 win last week over Indianapolis, considering they outgained the Colts 542-309. But because they turned the ball over four times (three interceptions by Jameis Winston), they actually needed to come back from a two touchdown deficit. Winston is now dealing w/ a thumb injury, which won't help his ball security issues. Note Tampa Bay has not won four in a row since 2016. This is the most points they've had to lay in any road game since the 2013 season opener (which they lost outright to the Jets). My own power rankings have this spread as a pick 'em. Yes, I am aware that Detroit has managed all of 17 points in the last seven quarters w/ third stringer David Blough at QB. But that doesn't change the fact TB shouldn't be laying this many points. Like the Lions, the Bucs have experienced a six-game ATS losing streak this year. They have only four wins by more than a field goal. The injured Winston won't have Mike Evans to throw to either as the Bucs top WR may be done for the season. Detroit's secondary only has five interceptions all season, but they could easily double that number here. 8* Detroit. |
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12-15-19 | Seahawks v. Panthers +7 | Top | 30-24 | Win | 100 | 47 h 39 m | Show |
8* Carolina (1:00 ET): When talking about teams whose season went south in a hurry, few can compare to the Panthers, who shockingly fired HC Ron Rivera two weeks ago. The coaching change failed to turn the tide last week in Atlanta where the Panthers lost 40-20 as 3.5-point underdogs. They've now lost five in a row - by an average of 13 points per game. But both blowouts came against Atlanta. The other three losses have all been one-score games as have been five of the team's eight total losses this season. In the first home game under interim HC Perry Fewell, I am expecting an inspired effort. Seattle has had just the opposite luck as Carolina this season. They entered last week's game w/ the Rams at 10-2 w/ a YTD point differential of +36. No team in NFL history had ever won 10 of its first 12 games w/ a point differential that small. Sure enough, we faded them out in LA last week and they were beaten 28-12, further exposing that point differential. I've said it before and I'll say it again here. The Seahawks have been more lucky than good this season by going a ridiculously fortunate 9-2 SU in one-score games. Their ONLY win that came by more than eight points was Week 4 at Arizona. I know the bloom is off the "Kyle Allen rose" and that the Panthers defense has had some real difficulties stopping teams of late. But, with "the world" figuring to be on Seattle this week, this is a great chance to step in and "buy low" on the home dog. This is a spread that should be no larger than a field goal. Seattle's rushing attack took a hit w/ Rashaad Penny tearing his ACL last week. The Panthers have also been unfortunate to be -12 in turnover margin during their 5-game losing streak. They get these issues correct this week and at least cover against a Seattle team that isn't as good as its record. This will be the Seahawks' FIFTH trip to the Eastern Time Zone. 8* Carolina |
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12-12-19 | Jets +17.5 v. Ravens | Top | 21-42 | Loss | -130 | 23 h 14 m | Show |
10* NY Jets (8:20 ET): With three games left in the season, the Jets have already improved on last year's season-win total. This despite a 1-7 SU start w/ QB Darnold missing time due to mono. The Jets were a team that I predicted would improve upon LY's win total. Granted, I thought they'd win have more wins than five at this point and maybe they would had Darnold not missed those three games (all losses). Certainly no one is expecting the Flyboys to win Thursday as they visit Baltimore to face the 11-2 Ravens. But I do think they can stay within the number. Take the points. The Ravens emerging as the NFL's best team is NOT something I saw coming. But here we are and they have the best record, best point differential and highest scoring offense. They are 3-0 SU against the league's other 10+ win teams. But the last two games have seen John Harbaugh's team cut it a little close as they needed a last second FG to get by the 49ers here at home, then last week it was just a 7-point win at Buffalo. But the biggest concern right now is the health of QB Lamar Jackson, who is listed as questionable for this game due to a quad injury. He announced Wednesday that he would play, but the short week does him no favors. Another reason to be concerned about Jackson this week is that his left tackle Ronnie Stanley is listed as doubtful due to a concussion. The Ravens have only been double digit favorites three times and failed to cover twice. The Jets have won four of their last five and with the exception of that ugly loss in Cincinnati, they haven't been beaten by more than 14 pts since the MNF disaster vs. the Patriots. Note the Jets defense leads the league in yards per carry allowed (3.03) which is huge when facing the Ravens. This play stands regardless if Jackson plays or not. 10* NY Jets |
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12-08-19 | Seahawks v. Rams +1 | Top | 12-28 | Win | 100 | 76 h 13 m | Show |
10* LA Rams (8:20 ET): The line move here is certainly interesting as it would seem to support my own previously stated skepticism of Seattle. The Seahawks moved up to the #1 spot in the NFC w/ Monday's 37-30 win over Minnesota. They are now 10-2 SU, but that record comes with a bit of an asterisk as they are 9-1 in one-score games. That's an awful lot of good luck as there are four NFC teams (including 6-7 Dallas) that have better YTD point differentials. Bottom line is Seattle is "due" to drop one and we don't see them sweeping the season series from the Rams, who have revenge for a 30-29 loss back in Week 5, which was also in primetime. The season appeared to be getting away from the Rams when they were blown out 45-6 by Baltimore in their own Monday night appearance. But they bounced back last week with one of their most complete efforts of 2019. They beat the Cardinals 34-7 w/ a 549-198 edge in total yards. A defense, which had been badly gashed by Lamar Jackson and the Ravens, held Arizona to just 3.2 yards per play. I just can't see the Rams losing B2B primetime home games. Nor can I see the Seahawks winning outright for a fourth time on the road as an underdog. From a scheduling perspective, the Rams have the edge as Seattle is working on a short week. For that Week 5 meeting, Seattle was only a 1.5-pt favorite at home. So the oddsmakers have definitely adjusted, but I think they've overreacted. Again, the Seahawks having all these close wins is simply not a sustainable blueprint for success. The Rams were a missed 44-yard FG away from taking that first meeting. They finished w/ slightly more total yards. A big difference between then and now is you can expect a bigger workload from RB Todd Gurley. The Rams defense has allowed 17 pts or less in five of the last six games, the loss to Baltimore two weeks ago being the only exception. 10* LA Rams |
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12-08-19 | Ravens v. Bills +6.5 | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -110 | 69 h 56 m | Show |
8* Buffalo (1:00 ET): Baltimore has established itself as the best team in the league in many people's eyes, including my own. However, there comes a time when the pointspread eventually catches up w/ you and for the Ravens, it was last week when they failed to cover in a 20-17 win over the 49ers. That snapped a 5-game ATS win streak, but didn't stop oddsmakers from asking them to lay a pretty big number on the road this week to a good Buffalo team. My own power rankings say this spread should be closer to a "pick 'em," so there's plenty of value on the dog. I took the Bills on Thanksgiving as they upset the Cowboys, 26-15 as a six-point road dog. In my analysis for that game, I talked about how many continue to hold Buffalo's weak scheduled against them. But the bottom line is that this team now has a top 6 point differential (+69). The defense is allowing just 15.7 PPG, fewer than Baltimore and third best in the entire league. Only once this season have the Bills allowed more than 21 pts in a game. This is a team uniquely suited to slow down Lamar Jackson and the Ravens' offense. The Bills are 4-1 ATS as underdogs this season, winning three of those games outright. Baltimore was held to just 283 total yards last week by San Francisco and outgained substantially on a per play basis. While much will be made of the Bills defense's susceptibility to the run, they've only allowed 211 yards rushing (total!) the L3 weeks. Some of that can be attributed to being ahead and forcing the opponent to pass, but even the Cowboys' ground game could only muster 103 yards against them. Having a few extra days to prepare is also huge for this Bills defense. 8* Buffalo |
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12-08-19 | Colts v. Bucs -3 | Top | 35-38 | Push | 0 | 69 h 54 m | Show |
8* Tampa Bay (1:00 ET): The Bucs have finally "woken up" and started to play better. They've won B2B games by double digits, beating the Falcons and Jaguars, both on the road. Now they try for that elusive cover at home. Prior to winning each of the L2 weeks, TB had failed to cover seven straight games. But as noted when I made them a *10* ULTIMATE POWER release two weeks ago, there's plenty of talent here and the team would have a better overall record had it not shot themselves in the foot on a regular basis. I think they'll continue their strong play at home this week. Lay the short number. Speaking of shooting itself in the foot, the Colts really let one get away last week vs. Tennessee. An Adam Vinateri FG attempt was blocked and returned for the game-winning TD. It was the Colts' fourth loss in the last five games. Vinateri won't play this week, which is probably for the best as he's been downright awful. But WR T.Y. Hilton's absence looms large. The team is 1-4 ATS w/o him as opposed to 6-1-1 ATS when he suits up. This Colts' offense hasn't done much in the way of scoring the L2 games, scoring 17 pts each time in defeat. Tampa Bay is 1-4 SU/0-5 ATS at home this year. They are the only team in the league yet to cover a game at home. Note those records include a "home game" in London. The Bucs have performed better on a per play basis this year than have the Colts. They do deserve to be the favorite here as Colts HC Frank Reich is just 3-8-1 ATS against teams w/ losing records. Against non-division foes this year, the Colts are just 2-5 SU. 8* Tampa Bay |
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12-02-19 | Vikings +3 v. Seahawks | Top | 30-37 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 21 m | Show |
10* Minnesota (8:15 ET): Endless throughout the telecast of tonight's game, you are bound to hear that Kirk Cousins is 0-7 (straight up) all-time on Monday Night Football. Were Al Michaels calling the game, you might also hear he's 0-7 ATS. But what you may not be told is that Cousins hasn't ever quarterbacked for a team this good. The Vikings are 8-3 SU and own the league's fourth best overall point differential (+84). This line implies that these teams would be considered "even" on a neutral field. That's simply not the case as the Vikings have been more impressive in my eyes. Take the points. Seattle has been living dangerously. Granted, they are 9-2 SU and have a chance to move up to the #1 seed in the NFC w/ a win tonight. But the vast majority of their games this year have been close. They are 7-1 SU in one-score games this season, 8-1 if you count last week's 8-point win at Philadelphia. Only New Orleans has a higher win percentage in games decided by one score this season. The Seahawks have just one win this year by greater than eight points and it came at the expense of last place Arizona. Those who have followed my picks for any length of time know that I lean heavily on scoring differential as a reliable indicator of future outcomes. I'm just not fully buying into this Seattle team yet. Their YTD point differential is only +29, which is outside the Top 10. Teams like Tennessee (7-5) and even Dallas (6-6) have outscored their opponents by more. The Seahawks are just 1-4 ATS in their home games. The Vikings are off a bye here. Cousins is the only QB in the league w/ a higher passer rating than Russell Wilson. The Vikings also have the better defense. 10* Minnesota |
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12-01-19 | Packers v. Giants +7 | Top | 31-13 | Loss | -120 | 48 h 53 m | Show |
8* NY Giants (1:00 ET): At first blush, there's really no good reason to back the Giants here. They've lost seven straight games to fall to 2-9 SU on the season. But four of those seven losses have been one-score games. Eventually, the G-Men have got to win one, right? Green Bay was humbled last Sunday night in an ugly 38-7 loss out in San Francisco. The expectation of a bounce back has turned them into a very "public side" for this week. I think it's worth a fade. Take the points. I played against the Packers last week, noting they were shaping up to be a "public dog." Bettors see that 8-3 SU record and think this team is better than it actually is. Flaws were apparent last week in San Francisco, particularly along the offensive line, which is dealing with injuries. But the bottom line is that the Packers aren't as good as their record. I've talked about this for. They have been outgained this season and their defense, which was once thought to be an improved unit, is actually dead last in the league in yards per play allowed (6.4). I thought the Giants would be a little better in 2019. The decision to bench Eli Manning in favor of rookie Daniel Jones was the correct one. What's shocking though is how RB Saquon Barkley is struggling. He's averaged just 3.5 yards per carry the L4 weeks and has not scored a TD in three straight games. Look for him to break that streak here though against the suspect Packers' defense. The Packers' offense has been held below 200 total yards in its last two road games. Look for the home dog to keep this one close in what is a very strong "anti-public fade." 8* NY Giants |
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12-01-19 | Browns v. Steelers +2.5 | Top | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 48 h 52 m | Show |
10* Pittsburgh (1:00 ET): Two weeks ago, in a game that ended w/ a much publicized brawl, the Browns beat the Steelers. It was only their seventh win over Pittsburgh since returning to the league in 1999 and the just the second in 14 tries. Cleveland was a 3-point home favorite for that game. I realize the final score was 21-7, but why are they road favorites here? I suppose a three-game win streak and the fact Pittsburgh is starting Devlin Hodges at QB play a role in that. But, to me, the Browns are back to where they were at the start of the season - overvalued. The last time Cleveland was favored in Pittsburgh was 30 years ago, Week 1 of the 1989 season and they won 51-0. That was Chuck Noll's final season! So it's been a long time since this situation presented itself. The Browns managed to sweep a three-game homestand to get back to 5-6, but last week's win was against the worst team in the league, Miami. History is simply not on Cleveland's side here. They have not swept a season series from the Steelers since 1988. Each of the last 8 times they've won the 1st meeting, they've gone 0-8 SU/ATS the second go around. They are 0-15 SU their L15 visits to Pittsburgh. The move from Mason Rudolph to Hodges is probably for the best. There's minimal distraction w/ Rudolph on the sideline. Also, the Steelers' numbers in the passing game actually go up when Hodges is under center. The number of yards per play, per pass attempt and third down conversion rate are all better. Granted it's a small sample size, but I took Hodges in his 1st career start when the Steelers ended up beating the Chargers. QB's making their 1st or 2nd career start have gone 14-4 ATS this season. The Steelers, who are 5-1 SU L6 games, have the better defense here. In addition to missing Myles Garrett, the Browns are going to be w/o LT Greg Robinson and S Damarious Randall. Pittsburgh is only w/o center Pouncey. The Steelers are 9-3 ATS as underdogs L3 seasons. 10* Pittsburgh |
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11-28-19 | Bills +7 v. Cowboys | Top | 26-15 | Win | 100 | 26 h 35 m | Show |
10* Buffalo (4:30 ET): Last year saw the Cowboys win the NFC East with a 10-6 SU record (despite only a +18 point differential). This year's team is every bit as talented, if not more so given they have a full season of Amari Cooper plus the return of TE Jason Witten. America's Team has the 4th best point differential in the league right now at +85. Yet they are stuck w/ a 6-5 SU record. If you've got a keen eye, the reason for the difference in record is easy to spot. Last year's team was a league-best 9-2 SU in games decided by 7 pts or less (lucky!). This year, they are 0-4 in such contests. Funny how those things work out! Despite only losing by 4 pts last week, to one of the league's best teams (New England), owner Jerry Jones of course had to open up his big yap. Certainly I didn't need Jones to identify that Bill Belichick is a better coach than Jason Garrett. That's pretty well understood. Missing the playoffs may very well cost Garrett his job and unfortunately for him, that's how I see things ending up. I know they were facing an elite defense last week, but the Cowboys were held to just 9 points. They face another strong defensive team this week. Buffalo has certainly taken advantage of a weak schedule to get to 8-3 SU. But look at whom the Cowboys have beaten. Five of their six wins have been against the Giants (2), Redskins, Dolphins and Lions. Those teams are a collective 9-34-1 SU! So you can't penalize the Bills for their weak schedule in handicapping this matchup. I just cannot see Dallas blowing out a team that allows only 15.7 points per game. Buffalo dominated Denver last week, winning 20-3 while allowing less than 3.0 yards per play. There's been only one game all season where the Bills allowed more than 21 points. They are 3-1 ATS as underdogs, including their own cover at New England. This is just the 2nd time they've gotten more than 3.5 pts in a game this year (NE being 1st). I expect this to be a close game and all the outside distraction this week certainly doesn't help the favorite. 10* Buffalo |
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11-24-19 | Packers v. 49ers -3 | Top | 8-37 | Win | 100 | 79 h 39 m | Show |
10* San Francisco (8:20 ET): The 49ers have certainly looked vulnerable the L3 weeks, but here they are standing at 9-1 SU coming into SNF on NBC. Those L3 games were all against division rivals that traditionally give them trouble (Arizona & Seattle). Here they'll be hosting a Green Bay team that certainly appears stronger on paper (at least compared to the Cardinals), however, when you dig a little deeper, you discover the Packers aren't nearly as dominant as their 8-2 record would seem to indicate. They've been outgained on the year and most of their wins have been nailbiters. That the Pack are coming off a bye is irrelevant to me in this situation. Lay the short number. The 49ers were lucky to cover, let alone win last week against Arizona. They scored the game-winning TD w/ just 31 seconds left on the clock, then picked up a Cardinals fumble on the final play and ran that in for a TD to make it a 36-26 final. For some that fumble return changed the ATS result (my apologies if you were caught on the wrong end of that one). However, let's not totally writeoff what the Niners did, okay? They outgained the Cards 442-266 for the game and had a huge edge in yards per play (6.7 vs. 4.3). Though the defense has suddenly allowed an average of 26 PPG the L3 wks, it still ranks second in both yards and points allowed for the year. Green Bay's defense turned in one of its better efforts two weeks ago when I cashed the Under in their game vs. Carolina as my 10* Total of the Month. But they had to hold off the Panthers on the final play (inside the 10-yd line) to preserve the 24-16 victory. Something to keep an eye on here is the trenches as Green Bay can't run the ball at all on the road (82 YPG) while the Niners are averaging 159 YPG rushing at home. At home, the 49ers are +15.4 points and 152.6 yards per game. The Packers, despite being 3-1 on the road, are -123.5 YPG! This line indicates these teams are even on a neutral field, but that's simply not the case. 10* San Francisco |
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11-24-19 | Panthers +10.5 v. Saints | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 71 h 20 m | Show |
8* Carolina (1:00 ET): Those in Carolina that were looking to make the case that Kyle Allen was a better option at QB than Cam Newton now have a little "egg on their face" after watching Allen regress mightily the last few weeks. I was always willing to concede that Allen is better than a banged up Newton. But the notion he was better than a healthy former league MVP was somewhat laughable. The Panthers now sit at 5-5 and are big dogs this week at New Orleans. This will easily be the most points they've been catching for any game this season. Despite what I just wrote about Allen, I'm willing to take the points here as I'm not nearly as high on New Orleans as the market is. The Saints crushed me last week by beating Tampa Bay 34-17. The Bucs were my Game of the the Year and I thought an outstanding play as a home dog. Unfortunately, they committed four turnovers - all of them as ill-timed as they were inexplicable. Total yardage in the game was basically even and the Bucs averaged more yards per play. Even w/ Drew Brees back, I still have some suspicions about a New Orleans team that has been fortunate to go 5-0 SU this season in one-score games. Four of those five wins were with Teddy Bridgewater at QB. But Brees was back when the Saints lost outright to the Falcons here at home two weeks ago, 26-9 as 14-pt chalk. Carolina found itself on the WRONG end of a +4 turnover margin last week against Atlanta. That and allowing a special teams TD spelled disaster for the Panthers in their own horrible home loss to the Falcons (29-3 as 4-pt chalk). But prior to last week, Carolina had suffered only one loss all year by more than eight points. New Orleans has failed to cover five of the last six times they've been a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points. An Atlanta pass rush that had previously been lackluster gave Brees and the Saints fits two weeks ago. The Panthers lead the league in sacks. As far as the Carolina offense, don't forget about Christian McCaffery, who leads the league in yards from scrimmage. 8* Carolina |
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11-24-19 | Bucs +4.5 v. Falcons | Top | 35-22 | Win | 100 | 71 h 20 m | Show |
10* Tampa Bay (1:00 ET): I'm not ready to give up on the Buccaneers just yet, even though SIX STRAIGHT ATS losses might seem to indicate that it's time to rethink things. I haven't been on all those losses, or even most of them for that matter. But I did have the Bucs last week as my Game of the Year and that was about as frustrating a watch as I can remember. This hard-luck team just can't seem to get out of its own way. Despite losing to the Saints 34-17 last week, TB actually finished with slightly more yards for the game and outgained New Orleans on a per play basis. But FOUR turnovers - all of them as ill-timed as they were inexplicable - proved to be their undoing. Now it's onto Atlanta where all of a sudden the Falcons seem to be pointed in the right direction. You may recall it was two weeks ago that I took the Dirty Birds plus the points in the Big Easy and the pulled off the shocker of the year, beating the Saints 26-9 as a 14-point dog. They then made it B2B division road wins as they slammed Carolina last week 29-3 (were +4.5). After producing all of seven in the first eight games (went 1-7), the Falcons' pass rush has exploded for 11 sacks these L2 games. But it's important to check the box score a little bit more. Atlanta was just the opposite of Tampa Bay last week in that they benefited from a +4 TO margin. The Falcons beating the Saints two weeks ago is was proof again that "anything can happen" in the NFL. So there's no reason to give up on the Bucs. They have a positive yardage differential for the season. On the injury front, the news is good w/ LB Carl Nassib set to return. Tampa Bay's defense is bad against the pass, but is #2 against the run w/ Nassib being their best stopper. Atlanta is going to be w/o RB Devonta Freeman and TE Austin Hooper this week. WR Julio Jones has also missed practice time. The L2 games aside, the Falcons have been far from a pointspread juggernaut themselves. They are 0-2 ATS as favorites this season, losing both games outright. Take the points. 10* Tampa Bay |
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11-24-19 | Seahawks v. Eagles | Top | 17-9 | Loss | -125 | 71 h 19 m | Show |
8* Philadelphia (1:00 ET): This was originally going to the Sunday Night Game, but was flexed out in favor of Packers-49ers (which I am also playing). This Seahawks-Eagles matchup happens to be the rare instance of the public loading up on the underdog. I suppose it's fairly easy to understand why. Seattle has covered seven straight times in the road underdog role and is a perfect 3-0 outright as a road dog this season. They are also 8-2 (Philly just 5-5) and coming off a bye. Before that bye week, they handed the 49ers their first loss of the season in an upset on MNF. But I still see some flaws w/ Russell Wilson and company. This team is extremely fortunate to have gone 7-1 SU this year in one score games. Their only win of 2019 that was by more than a touchdown came back in Week 4 at Arizona. Five of their wins have been by 4 pts or less. Their last two wins were both overtime games. On the year, they have a point differential of only +21. The Seahawks simply do not have the statistical profile of a team you'd expect to be 8-2. Down the stretch, I'm going to act accordingly and look to fade when appropriate. This is one of those times. Though Lane Johnson remains in the concussion protocol, the Eagles still should be getting more respect coming into this game. They hung tough w/ New England last week here at home, even jumping out to an early 10-0 lead. Really, it's a game they could have won. Though battling some injuries, I don't believe anything is truly "wrong" w/ the Eagles offense. The defense is allowing just 18.2 PPG at home. The last three games, the Eagles have allowed just 44 points total. 8* Philadelphia |
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11-17-19 | Bengals +11.5 v. Raiders | Top | 10-17 | Win | 100 | 122 h 34 m | Show |
8* Cincinnati (4:25 ET): Yes, I'm backing Cincinnati this week, the same team that just got beat 49-13 last week and is now 0-9 SU on the season. Going back to the end of last season, the Bengals have lost their last 11 regular season games. There is some merit in taking this team in this spot, but make no mistake about it - this play is more about fading the Raiders, who are laying double digits. Yes, the Raiders are laying double digits to an actual NFL team. That's happened just one time since Week 2 of the 2003 season! Obviously, you should take the points here. Things escalated quickly for the Bengals last week against Baltimore as they basically let Lamar Jackson run wild. However, there were some fluke things that happened along the way that contributed to the game getting so out of hand. QB Ryan Finley, making his first career NFL start, had two turnovers returned for touchdowns. Turnovers aside, I actually thought Finley didn't play all that poorly. The Bengals weren't outgained that severely and actually ended up w/ one more first down than the Ravens. All the big plays went Baltimore's way, but that's not who Cincy is facing this week. Instead, they are facing a team that has yet to win a game by more than eight points in 2019. Somehow, someway, Jon Gruden has constructed a playoff contender out in Oakland. What a way to go out as the franchise is set to move to Las Vegas next season. But even though they are playoff contenders, the Raiders have still been outscored by 32 points, a worse margin than the 3-6 Broncos. They've not only been outscored, but also outgained this year. Last Thursday vs. the Chargers, they won largely because of a +3 turnover margin, one of them an INT that was returned for a TD. They finished w/ eight fewer first downs than the Chargers. Over the L3 seasons, the Raiders are not only 0-3 ATS when coming off B2B SU wins, they are 0-3 SU as well. Add it up and this is one of the weakest DD favorites in recent memory. 8* Cincinnati |
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11-17-19 | Saints v. Bucs +6 | Top | 34-17 | Loss | -110 | 118 h 10 m | Show |
10* Tampa Bay (1:00 ET): When I chose Atlanta as our top NFL side for last week, admittedly there wasn't much belief that the Falcons could win straight up. After all, they were two touchdown underdogs to a Saints team that hadn't lost since Week 2. But win straight up is precisely what the Dirty Birds did. The most shocking thing of all is just how dominant a SU victory it ended up being. A previously non-existent pass rush showed up in a major way for Atlanta w/ 6 sacks and 11 QB hits and they led pretty much from start to finish in what ended up being a 26-9 final. After taking a loss like that, the Saints will be expected to bounce back this week. I'm here to tell you "not so fast." In fact, you should once again take the points against them. There are some real issues w/ this Saints' offense right now. In nine games this season, they have scored a grand total of 25 first quarter points. Sunday marked the 4th game this season the offense failed to score a TD in the first three quarters. That's some pretty shocking stuff. Furthermore, despite having a 7-2 SU record, this has been far from a dominant team. Five of the Saints' seven victories this year have been by 7 pts or less. They only have a +22 YTD point differential and are only outscoring opponent by 2.5 PPG. This week will actually mark the 1st time all season that New Orleans has been a road favorite! Conversely, Tampa Bay is a team that's played much better than its 3-6 SU record would seem to suggest. They have actually outgained their opponents over the course of the year. Looking at their six losses, four have been by 7 pts or less. One was in New Orleans, 31-24, back in Week 5. That was the second of B2B road games for the Bucs, who were coming off a shocking 55-40 drubbing of the Rams in LA. We know this team can score as LW's 30-27 win over Arizona marked the 5th time this season TB has scored 30+ pts. That's the same number as the Saints. The Bucs are only being outscored by 2.1 PPG this season. Being able to finally win a close game last week I think will give the Bucs some much needed confidence going into this game. Keep in mind that this game is outdoors where the Saints traditionally don't fare as well. After six straight ATS losses, it's time for the Bucs to finish "in the money" and I give them a great shot at the outright upset here. 10* Tampa Bay |
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11-14-19 | Steelers +3 v. Browns | Top | 7-21 | Loss | -113 | 53 h 29 m | Show |
10* Pittsburgh (8:20 ET): The Browns' 19-16 win over the Bills last week, ugly as it was, has some convinced that this team has a viable path to the playoffs. Such a line of thinking goes back to just how overrated this team was at the start of the season. Take it from someone who cashed a winning ticket on the Browns (-2.5) last week. This team is NOT going to the playoffs. Not unless something serious changes as this team makes far too many mistakes, bogs down in the red zone at an incredible rate and is just plain poorly coached. I'm taking the points in the Thursday night AFC North matchup. Now Pittsburgh is a team that I believe has a viable track to getting a Wild Card in the depth-shy AFC. Left for dead because of the Ben Roethlisberger injury, the Steelers have all of a sudden won four straight. Before the season, this was my pick to win the division. That's likely out the window now, but at 5-4, making the playoffs is not. Other than New England, no team has been able to beat the Steelers by more than four points this year. Their four losses are to the Patriots, Seahawks, 49ers and Ravens. Those teams are a combined 31-6 SU right now! With Big Ben out, the "Steel Curtain" is back as the defense has given up just 67 pts during the 4-game win streak. The Browns have topped 23 points in just two games all year. Baker Mayfield has regressed badly and actually sports a negative TD-INT ratio. Let's not forget how Pittsburgh has dominated this AFC North rivalry like maybe no other division rivalry in the sport. Since Cleveland returned to the league in 1999, they have gone just 6-34-1 SU against the Black & Gold. During that time, the Browns have been favored only THREE times and lost two of them outright. I'm not going to say Steelers QB Mason Rudolph has been great, but the defense certainly has been. Last week against the Rams, they didn't allow an offensive TD. The better team is getting points here and has a sizable coaching edge here to boot. Under Mike Tomlin, the Steelers have excelled as underdogs, including a 9-2 ATS record the L3 seasons. 10* Pittsburgh |
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11-10-19 | Falcons +14.5 v. Saints | Top | 26-9 | Win | 100 | 39 h 46 m | Show |
10* Atlanta (1:00 ET): The 2019 season couldn't be going more differently for these two NFC South rivals. The Saints, despite Drew Brees missing five games, are on pace for a franchise record 14 wins. They also have the league's longest active ATS win streak at 6 games. Atlanta seems to be inching towards the end of the Dan Quinn era, that is unless things change drastically in the second half of the season. They're 1-7 SU overall and 0-6 SU, 0-5-1 ATS the L6 games. But while recent history may not be on their side, the Falcons are a desperate, double-digit division dog this week. That's a spot we like, especially with Matt Ryan coming back. While Atlanta has been the worst bet in the NFL over the L2 seasons (7-17 ATS) w/ a ton of outright losses, they are not a DD dog often. In fact, it's happened only five times in the Matt Ryan era and just once under Quinn. While the Falcons are 0-5 straight up in those games, they've gone 4-1 ATS. The spread for each of Atlanta's first seven games was always four points or less. Were the Falcons to get blown out here, off their bye, things would be REAL ugly for Quinn. Can't see that happening. Ryan being back is huge. Against Seattle two weeks ago, even w/o Ryan, the Falcons outgained the Seahawks 510-322, but lost due to being -3 in turnovers. This team is better than its won-loss record. They're outgaining opponents on both a per play and per game basis! New Orleans is 7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS. They won every start w/ Teddy Bridgewater starting in place of Brees, but were clearly undervalued in those games. Despite their dominant record, the Saints have five wins by a TD or less. In Brees' return, they did beat the Cardinals 31-9, but that was also a one possession game going into the 4th quarter. They call the pointspread "the great equalizer" for a reason and eventually luck and those ATS results are going to even out. Love the points here. 10* Atlanta |
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11-10-19 | Bills v. Browns -2.5 | Top | 16-19 | Win | 100 | 39 h 45 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (1:00 ET): There may be some head-scratching over the fact a 2-6 team (Cleveland) is favored over a 6-2 team (Buffalo), but if history is any indication, then the Browns are in good shape here. It's not unprecedented to see a line like this, but it is rare. This is only the 7th time in the L25 seasons that this situation presents itself, that being a team w/ a .250 win percentage or lower being favored over a team w/ a .750 win percentage in Week 6 or later. But when it happens, the favorite is a perfect 6-0 ATS! It's only the third time it's happened in Week 10 or later in the Super Bowl era and the favorite is 2-0 ATS previously. Lay the points. Buffalo is 6-2 SU and in good position to make the playoffs. But they've certainly taken advantage of a pretty easy schedule. Not only are the Bills the only team besides the Patriots to get to face the Jets & Dolphins twice (2-0 SU so far), they've also gotten to play the Giants, Redskins and Bengals, who are a collective 3-23 SU. Their six wins this year have come against teams that are a combined 9-42 straight up. Cleveland was the "trendy" team coming into the 2019 season, but we see how that's gone. In retrospect, Freddie Kitchens was probably the wrong hire as HC and Baker Mayfield is regressing. But things may not be as bad for the Browns as you think. RB Kareem Hunt is finally able to return from an 8-game suspension. It's not like the offense lacks talent. Just last week, they ran 30 more plays than Denver and possessed the ball for 11 more minutes. But six trips in the red zone resulted in only 19 pts and they lost by five. They are now 0-3 SU in games decided by 7 pts or less. They are also 0-3 SU/ATS at home. That has to change. The schedule so far has been tough. While the Bills have gotten to play all those weak teams, the Browns have had to face the Rams, 49ers and Seahawks, among others. This is just the 2nd home game in six weeks. Home teams in games where the total is 41 pts or less have gone 14-6 ATS this season and 107-85-6 ATS the L5 seasons. It's now or never for the Browns. 8* Cleveland |
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11-10-19 | Chiefs v. Titans +6.5 | Top | 32-35 | Win | 100 | 19 h 13 m | Show |
8* Tennessee (1:00 ET): With Patrick Mahomes set to return, this number has skyrocketed in the Chiefs' direction. The thing is, I thought the original number would have been appropriate even w/ Mahomes factored into the equation. HC Andy Reid has struggled in his career vs. the Titans, going 1-7 SU against them, including 0-3 SU/ATS w/ the Chiefs and all of those losses came as a favorite. There was a playoff loss two years ago that really stung. But right now Tennessee isn't even thinking playoffs. They are a desperate home dog off a tough loss LW at Carolina. Typically, this is a stronger team at home and under Mike Vrabel, they are 5-1 ATS/4-2 as dogs of 4+ pts. Take the points. There are two "old school" characteristics Tennessee should lean on here in order to pull the upset. One is their defense. They only give up 18.3 PPG, which is 7th best in the league. The other is run the ball effectively, which they should be able to do. I didn't think RB Derrick Henry got the ball enough, especially in the 1H, LW vs. Carolina. Henry averages 18.2 touches per game, which is important to note because RB's who get at least 14 carries against this Chiefs' defense average 109.4 YPG. The Chiefs' defense has allowed 180+ yards rushing in four different games this year. Also, the Titans offense is averaging about a full yard per play more w/ Ryan Tannehill at QB than they were w/ Marcus Mariota. One has to wonder how Mahomes will play in his first game back from a knee injury. Prior to the injury, the Chiefs' offense had actually been regressing. They'd been held under 26 pts in B2B games, both losses, something that had previous never happened w/ Mahomes as the starter. All but one of KC's last seven games has been decided by one score. They just seem like a real "public side" here caught laying too many points on the road. 8* Tennessee |
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11-04-19 | Cowboys v. Giants +7 | Top | 37-18 | Loss | -115 | 35 h 43 m | Show |
10* NY Giants (8:15 ET): This is the second meeting of the year between these long-time NFC East rivals. I made the mistake of playing the G-Men in the first, which they lost 35-17 as 7-point underdogs. That result seems to have set the tone for the respective seasons as Dallas is 5-3 (coming off a bye) while the Giants are 2-6 SU (and have lost four in a row). The Week 1 win by the Cowboys was also their fifth straight win and cover over the Giants. But look at this line for Monday night's rematch. The Giants are now basically getting the same number of points at home that they were on the road. There's some real value on the home dog here. Take the points. While still struggling, the Giants do look a lot different from when they faced the Cowboys in Week 1. The most obvious difference is at QB w/ Daniel Jones now starting instead of Eli Manning. Jones first appeared in Week 3 vs. Tampa Bay where he led a dramatic come from behind win. He then won his first career start, beating the Redskins 24-3. But since then, it's been nothing but losses as the Giants are 0-4. Slow starts have doomed the Giants during this stretch, but note that two of the four losses have been by six points or less. The other two were to the Vikings and Patriots, two of the best teams in the league. Jones will also finally have a full compliment of skill position players this week as RB Saquon Barkley and WR Sterling Shepard are both set to return. Keep in mind that both TE Evan Engram and WR Golden Tate have missed time as well, but they'll be on the field here as well. On the defensive side of the ball, there's also a fresh new face for the Giants. It's Leonard Williams, who was acquired this week in a trade w/ the Jets. The Giants' defense has been better over the L3 games and I expect a much better showing than the disastrous effort against the Cowboys in Week 1. Despite them destroying the Eagles two weeks ago, I remain highly skeptical of the Cowboys. They are 1-2 on the road w/ the lone win coming against Washington. They've already lost once in this stadium this year, falling as a 7-pt road favorite to the previously winless Jets. Despite many trends pointing Dallas' way in this game, I'm going the other way as this is a great sell high (Dallas) / buy low (Giants) spot with the two teams. 10* NY Giants |
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11-03-19 | Packers v. Chargers +4 | Top | 11-26 | Win | 100 | 25 h 19 m | Show |
8* LA Chargers (4:25 ET): I was a big "buyer" on the Packers coming into the season, their 1st under new HC Matt LaFleur. The fact that a team w/ Aaron Rodgers could finish below .500 in B2B seasons is a real "black mark" for LaFleur's predecessor Mike McCarthy, even though one Rodgers was injured for a good chunk of one of those years. This year's obvious improvement aside, the Packers have clearly overachieved in getting to 7-1. They've won four games by seven points or less (lost only one) and are actually being outgained on both a per game and per play basis. I'll fade GB this week as they are the definition of a "public side" here. Take the points. The Chargers finished 12-4 SU for HC Anthony Lynn last year and were favored to make the playoffs again. But they've reverted back to their "old ways" in 2019, losing a lot of close games and falling prey to injuries. All five Chargers' losses this year have been by seven points or less. But, finally, something went their way last week as they held on to beat Chicago 17-16, thanks to a missed FG attempt on the final play. LA was actually dominated statistically in the contest, getting outgained 388-231 and finishing w/ 15 fewer first downs than the Bears. But given how the first seven games had gone, the Lightning Bolts will take a win anyway they can get it. Something worth noting here is the Chargers had not been an underdog in any game this season until the L2 weeks. They pushed as a three-point dog vs. Tennessee and then had the outright win LW in Chicago. This team plays good defense, giving up only 19.6 PPG. Green Bay caught a huge break LW as they got to face Kansas City w/o Patrick Mahomes. This is the first time all season that the Pack have had to play two straight road games. The Chargers have actually lost three in a row at home, a streak we see likely coming to an end here even though they don't have much of a homefield advantage. Despite a 3-5 SU overall record, the Chargers have outgained their opponents and have scored the same number of points as they've allowed. This number is definitely on the "wrong side" of 3. 8* LA Chargers |
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11-03-19 | Bucs +7 v. Seahawks | Top | 34-40 | Win | 100 | 118 h 45 m | Show |
10* Tampa Bay (4:05 ET): Sometimes it can be a "thin line" between being 2-5 and 6-2 in this league. Take these teams, for example. The 2-5 Bucs seem to specialize in "throwing games away" whether it be turning the ball over SEVEN times (like they did in London vs Carolina) or blowing 18-point leads (like they did vs the Giants). Last week was another close loss, 27-24 in Tennessee. As for 6-2 Seattle, they have five wins by seven points or less, including four by four or less. They have outscored opponents by only 12 points all year and the schedule is about to get a whole lot tougher. Believe it or not, the Seahawks are 0-4 ATS as home favorites this year. Take the points. Last week was microcosm of the season for these two teams. Tampa Bay outgained Tennessee 389-246, only to commit four more turnovers and lose. There was also an apparent fumble return for TD negated by an inadvertent whistle that would have won the game for the Bucs. It was Tampa's third loss this season by seven points or less. While that was going on, Seattle held on for a 27-20 win at Atlanta. While the Seahawks did lead 24-0 at halftime, they were eventually outgained 510-322, only to benefit from a +3 turnover margin. Such has been the respective 2019's for these two teams. But this is where Tampa Bay's luck changes. Maybe it will be just temporarily, but they are definitely "due." The Bucs have outgained their opponents both on a per play and per game basis. They've only been outscored by 16 pts all year. Seattle's defense is giving up 6.4 yards play, which is more than what the Bucs allow. The Bucs' defense is actually #1 in the league against the run! Meanwhile, The Legion of Boom is long gone in Seattle and last week the Seahawks gave up 400+ yards passing to Atlanta (w/ Matt Schaub). Tampa Bay's offense has big play capability w/ two excellent receivers. Seattle's offensive line is in flux now w/ a new starting center. In each case here, the team's WL record is a little bit misleading. 10* Tampa Bay |
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10-28-19 | Dolphins v. Steelers -14 | Top | 14-27 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
8* Pittsburgh (8:15 ET): Despite them being left for dead following a season-ending injury to Ben Roethlisberger, don't count out the Steelers quite yet. They are 2-4 SU in a weak AFC. The only game that they played poorly in was a Week 1 loss to the Patriots, who are the best team in the league. Their other three losses have been by a total of nine points. They've saved some of their best efforts for primetime as two weeks ago they beat the Chargers on SNF and the team's "best" game of the year came on a Monday night when they whipped the winless Bengals 27-3. Coming off a bye and facing another winless team (Miami) in primetime this week, I expect the Black and Gold to roll. Lay the points. Despite having one of the worst six-game starts in league history, the Dolphins seem to be drawing some interest from bettors here. Admittedly, they have been more competitive the L2 weeks, going 2-0 ATS. But that was against Washington (who was also winless at the time) and a Buffalo team that isn't as good as its record. Ryan Fitzpatrick seems to have breathed some life into a previously anemic offense, but he's 0-6 SU all-time against the Steelers. Also, Miami has yet to score more than 21 points in a game this season. They've been outscored by 148 points in the six games. No team has scored fewer points and none have given up more (even though many teams have played 8 games as opposed to Miami's 6!). This is a terrible football team, one of the worst in league history and they have a very real shot at going 0-16 SU. Pittsburgh coming off a bye week here is big because it allows for Mason Rudolph to return at QB. Rudolph is no Big Ben, but he's certainly an upgrade over Devlin Hodges, whom they were able to win with out in LA two weeks ago. Every team besides Washington has been able to score at least 30 points against this Dolphins' defense. The Steelers are typically a good October team having gone 8-2 SU, 8-1-1 ATS in the month the L3 seasons. They've got some advantages here in pass protection and should easily be able to move the ball against a Miami defense which ranks 31st against the run. It's a lot of points to swallow here, but the Dolphins are indeed "that bad." 8* Pittsburgh |
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10-27-19 | Broncos +6 v. Colts | Top | 13-15 | Win | 100 | 47 h 7 m | Show |
8* Denver (1:00 ET): In what could ultimately be a low-scoring game, taking the points seems like the right move here. It feels as if we’re buying the Broncos at a low-point as they lost 30-6 to Kansas City last Thursday (even though the Chiefs lost Patrick Mahomes to injury). Last Sunday, Indianapolis was in an ideal spot facing the Texans. They were off a bye and won 30-23, leaving them alone in first place of the AFC South. Coming off that big win, it seems like a good spot to fade as the Colts have not won a game by more than seven points all season. The Colts are just the third team since 1970 to open with six straight games decided by seven points or less and win at least four of them. No team has ever started a year by playing seven straight one-score games and going 5-2 or better. So unless you think Indy is going to win in a blowout here, history is against them. Both of their losses came against AFC West team and neither of them were to Kansas City. Despite their 5-2 SU record, the Colts are being outgained on both a per game (-10.5) and per play basis (-1.1). They are a bit of a mirage as far as we’re concerned. The Broncos are better than their WL record. While 2-5 SU, they have actually outgained opponents on a per game and per play basis. The defense allows just 302.6 YPG, which is 4th best in the league! Now the offense isn’t great as Joe Flacco is clearly a stop gap until the next franchise QB is found. But only two of their losses have been by more than one score. The Colts’ YTD point differential is just +5. Denver can easily keep this game close, if not win it outright. 8* Denver |
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Bryan Power NFL Top Sides Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-20-20 | Bucs v. Falcons +6 | Top | 31-27 | Win | 100 | 50 h 17 m | Show |
12-20-20 | Patriots v. Dolphins -1 | Top | 12-22 | Win | 100 | 50 h 17 m | Show |
12-20-20 | Seahawks v. Washington Football Team +6 | Top | 20-15 | Win | 100 | 50 h 17 m | Show |
12-19-20 | Bills v. Broncos +6 | Top | 48-19 | Loss | -104 | 30 h 48 m | Show |
12-17-20 | Chargers +3.5 v. Raiders | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 32 h 47 m | Show |
12-14-20 | Ravens v. Browns +3 | Top | 47-42 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 41 m | Show |
12-13-20 | Steelers +2.5 v. Bills | Top | 15-26 | Loss | -102 | 94 h 29 m | Show |
12-13-20 | Cowboys v. Bengals +4 | Top | 30-7 | Loss | -110 | 87 h 10 m | Show |
12-13-20 | Texans v. Bears +1.5 | Top | 7-36 | Win | 100 | 87 h 9 m | Show |
12-13-20 | Chiefs v. Dolphins +7.5 | Top | 33-27 | Win | 100 | 87 h 9 m | Show |
12-06-20 | Patriots v. Chargers +1 | Top | 45-0 | Loss | -110 | 95 h 31 m | Show |
12-06-20 | Rams v. Cardinals +3 | Top | 38-28 | Loss | -115 | 94 h 11 m | Show |
12-06-20 | Raiders v. Jets +9 | Top | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 91 h 7 m | Show |
11-30-20 | Seahawks v. Eagles +6 | Top | 23-17 | Push | 0 | 37 h 37 m | Show |
11-29-20 | Chiefs v. Bucs +3.5 | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 27 h 44 m | Show |
11-29-20 | Raiders v. Falcons +3 | Top | 6-43 | Win | 103 | 23 h 21 m | Show |
11-29-20 | Giants v. Bengals +6.5 | Top | 19-17 | Win | 100 | 23 h 21 m | Show |
11-29-20 | Browns v. Jaguars +7.5 | Top | 27-25 | Win | 100 | 23 h 20 m | Show |
11-29-20 | Chargers +4.5 v. Bills | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 20 m | Show |
11-26-20 | Washington Football Team v. Cowboys -2.5 | Top | 41-16 | Loss | -124 | 70 h 37 m | Show |
11-26-20 | Texans v. Lions +3 | Top | 41-25 | Loss | -115 | 66 h 32 m | Show |
11-22-20 | Chiefs v. Raiders +7.5 | Top | 35-31 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
11-22-20 | Cowboys +7.5 v. Vikings | Top | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 15 h 30 m | Show |
11-16-20 | Vikings v. Bears +3 | Top | 19-13 | Loss | -105 | 70 h 44 m | Show |
11-15-20 | 49ers +10 v. Saints | Top | 13-27 | Loss | -112 | 42 h 53 m | Show |
11-15-20 | Bills v. Cardinals -1 | Top | 30-32 | Win | 100 | 71 h 15 m | Show |
11-12-20 | Colts +2 v. Titans | Top | 34-17 | Win | 100 | 54 h 24 m | Show |
11-08-20 | Saints v. Bucs -4.5 | Top | 38-3 | Loss | -109 | 56 h 15 m | Show |
11-08-20 | Raiders v. Chargers | Top | 31-26 | Loss | -105 | 52 h 1 m | Show |
11-05-20 | Packers v. 49ers +7.5 | Top | 34-17 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 27 m | Show |
11-01-20 | Cowboys +10 v. Eagles | Top | 9-23 | Loss | -120 | 60 h 43 m | Show |
11-01-20 | 49ers +3 v. Seahawks | Top | 27-37 | Loss | -100 | 101 h 28 m | Show |
11-01-20 | Rams v. Dolphins +4 | Top | 17-28 | Win | 100 | 122 h 57 m | Show |
10-26-20 | Bears v. Rams -5.5 | Top | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
10-25-20 | Seahawks v. Cardinals +3.5 | Top | 34-37 | Win | 100 | 129 h 2 m | Show |
10-25-20 | Bills v. Jets +11 | Top | 18-10 | Win | 100 | 27 h 39 m | Show |
10-22-20 | Giants +4.5 v. Eagles | Top | 21-22 | Win | 100 | 31 h 42 m | Show |
10-19-20 | Cardinals v. Cowboys +1.5 | Top | 38-10 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 14 m | Show |
10-18-20 | Rams v. 49ers +3.5 | Top | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 51 h 25 m | Show |
10-18-20 | Packers v. Bucs +1 | Top | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 71 h 34 m | Show |
10-18-20 | Texans v. Titans -3.5 | Top | 36-42 | Win | 100 | 28 h 1 m | Show |
10-13-20 | Bills v. Titans +3.5 | Top | 16-42 | Win | 100 | 25 h 26 m | Show |
10-11-20 | Vikings +7 v. Seahawks | Top | 26-27 | Win | 100 | 56 h 57 m | Show |
10-11-20 | Colts v. Browns | Top | 23-32 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 15 m | Show |
10-11-20 | Bengals +13 v. Ravens | Top | 3-27 | Loss | -120 | 28 h 10 m | Show |
10-08-20 | Bucs v. Bears +4 | Top | 19-20 | Win | 100 | 30 h 43 m | Show |
10-04-20 | Eagles v. 49ers -7 | Top | 25-20 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 14 m | Show |
10-04-20 | Seahawks v. Dolphins +6 | Top | 31-23 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 7 m | Show |
10-04-20 | Ravens v. Washington Football Team +14.5 | Top | 31-17 | Win | 100 | 23 h 53 m | Show |
10-01-20 | Broncos +2 v. Jets | Top | 37-28 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
09-28-20 | Chiefs v. Ravens -3 | Top | 34-20 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
09-27-20 | Bucs v. Broncos +6.5 | Top | 28-10 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 59 m | Show |
09-27-20 | 49ers v. Giants +3.5 | Top | 36-9 | Loss | -112 | 16 h 35 m | Show |
09-27-20 | Texans +4.5 v. Steelers | Top | 21-28 | Loss | -106 | 16 h 35 m | Show |
09-24-20 | Dolphins v. Jaguars -2.5 | Top | 31-13 | Loss | -126 | 27 h 60 m | Show |
09-20-20 | Lions +7 v. Packers | Top | 21-42 | Loss | -140 | 15 h 55 m | Show |
09-20-20 | Falcons v. Cowboys -3.5 | Top | 39-40 | Loss | -102 | 15 h 55 m | Show |
09-14-20 | Steelers v. Giants +7 | Top | 26-16 | Loss | -138 | 34 h 36 m | Show |
09-13-20 | Raiders v. Panthers +3 | Top | 34-30 | Loss | -117 | 13 h 16 m | Show |
09-13-20 | Bears v. Lions -2.5 | Top | 27-23 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 16 m | Show |
02-02-20 | 49ers v. Chiefs | Top | 20-31 | Win | 100 | 27 h 49 m | Show |
01-19-20 | Titans +8 v. Chiefs | Top | 24-35 | Loss | -130 | 72 h 51 m | Show |
01-11-20 | Vikings +7.5 v. 49ers | Top | 10-27 | Loss | -130 | 26 h 0 m | Show |
01-05-20 | Seahawks v. Eagles +2.5 | Top | 17-9 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 35 m | Show |
01-05-20 | Vikings +9 v. Saints | Top | 26-20 | Win | 100 | 41 h 0 m | Show |
01-04-20 | Bills +3 v. Texans | Top | 19-22 | Push | 0 | 21 h 31 m | Show |
12-29-19 | Falcons v. Bucs | Top | 28-22 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 38 m | Show |
12-29-19 | Browns v. Bengals +3 | Top | 23-33 | Win | 100 | 20 h 41 m | Show |
12-29-19 | Saints v. Panthers +14 | Top | 42-10 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 25 m | Show |
12-23-19 | Packers v. Vikings -5 | Top | 23-10 | Loss | -110 | 93 h 11 m | Show |
12-22-19 | Chiefs v. Bears +7 | Top | 26-3 | Loss | -133 | 22 h 21 m | Show |
12-22-19 | Raiders v. Chargers -6.5 | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -120 | 65 h 27 m | Show |
12-22-19 | Saints v. Titans +3 | Top | 38-28 | Loss | -125 | 19 h 23 m | Show |
12-21-19 | Texans v. Bucs +3 | Top | 23-20 | Push | 0 | 94 h 6 m | Show |
12-15-19 | Jaguars +7 v. Raiders | Top | 20-16 | Win | 100 | 50 h 44 m | Show |
12-15-19 | Bucs v. Lions +4 | Top | 38-17 | Loss | -105 | 47 h 39 m | Show |
12-15-19 | Seahawks v. Panthers +7 | Top | 30-24 | Win | 100 | 47 h 39 m | Show |
12-12-19 | Jets +17.5 v. Ravens | Top | 21-42 | Loss | -130 | 23 h 14 m | Show |
12-08-19 | Seahawks v. Rams +1 | Top | 12-28 | Win | 100 | 76 h 13 m | Show |
12-08-19 | Ravens v. Bills +6.5 | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -110 | 69 h 56 m | Show |
12-08-19 | Colts v. Bucs -3 | Top | 35-38 | Push | 0 | 69 h 54 m | Show |
12-02-19 | Vikings +3 v. Seahawks | Top | 30-37 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 21 m | Show |
12-01-19 | Packers v. Giants +7 | Top | 31-13 | Loss | -120 | 48 h 53 m | Show |
12-01-19 | Browns v. Steelers +2.5 | Top | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 48 h 52 m | Show |
11-28-19 | Bills +7 v. Cowboys | Top | 26-15 | Win | 100 | 26 h 35 m | Show |
11-24-19 | Packers v. 49ers -3 | Top | 8-37 | Win | 100 | 79 h 39 m | Show |
11-24-19 | Panthers +10.5 v. Saints | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 71 h 20 m | Show |
11-24-19 | Bucs +4.5 v. Falcons | Top | 35-22 | Win | 100 | 71 h 20 m | Show |
11-24-19 | Seahawks v. Eagles | Top | 17-9 | Loss | -125 | 71 h 19 m | Show |
11-17-19 | Bengals +11.5 v. Raiders | Top | 10-17 | Win | 100 | 122 h 34 m | Show |
11-17-19 | Saints v. Bucs +6 | Top | 34-17 | Loss | -110 | 118 h 10 m | Show |
11-14-19 | Steelers +3 v. Browns | Top | 7-21 | Loss | -113 | 53 h 29 m | Show |
11-10-19 | Falcons +14.5 v. Saints | Top | 26-9 | Win | 100 | 39 h 46 m | Show |
11-10-19 | Bills v. Browns -2.5 | Top | 16-19 | Win | 100 | 39 h 45 m | Show |
11-10-19 | Chiefs v. Titans +6.5 | Top | 32-35 | Win | 100 | 19 h 13 m | Show |
11-04-19 | Cowboys v. Giants +7 | Top | 37-18 | Loss | -115 | 35 h 43 m | Show |
11-03-19 | Packers v. Chargers +4 | Top | 11-26 | Win | 100 | 25 h 19 m | Show |
11-03-19 | Bucs +7 v. Seahawks | Top | 34-40 | Win | 100 | 118 h 45 m | Show |
10-28-19 | Dolphins v. Steelers -14 | Top | 14-27 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
10-27-19 | Broncos +6 v. Colts | Top | 13-15 | Win | 100 | 47 h 7 m | Show |