Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-15-16 | Jets v. Bills +1 | Top | 37-31 | Loss | -102 | 29 h 20 m | Show |
10* Buffalo (8:25 ET): There's been a major line move here for this AFC East battle. The Bills, who opened as two-point favorites and were quickly bet up to -3, are now 1-pt dogs (at home) due to the uncertain status of WR Sammy Watkins. Classic overreaction by the public, in my opinion. The Bills swept the Jets last year, winning both games by the same 22-17 score. The second cost the Jets a playoff berth (game was played Week 17), so obviously some will be fascinated by the revenge angle here, especially considering Buffalo has actually won and covered the last five meetings. Of course, we saw how the big revenge angle played out last Thursday in Carolina-Denver. For the record, some are anticipating Watkins playing here, but regardless if he does or not, these Thursday night games always seem to favor the home team on a short week. I'm taking Buffalo at a tremendous price. I've earmarked the Jets for regression in 2016, so I was not the least bit surprised to see them lose in Week 1 (at home) to the Bengals. They were outgained 381-340 in the 23-22 loss, which did come on a last second FG. But the offense never really got the passing game going (188 yards), which was my concern w/ Ryan Fitzpatrick coming into camp late following an extended holdout. Quite frankly, I'm stunned to see the Jets get this much love from the public. As a "true" road favorite LY (excluding London game vs. Miami and neutral site game vs. Giants), they were 0-3-1 ATS, losing outright three times! One of those was obviously the final game at Buffalo. Now the Bills' offense was pretty putrid in its own right (just 160 total yds!) in the 13-7 loss to Baltimore in Week 1. Many, myself included, had high hopes for this unit coming into 2016. At home, against a familiar foe, I expect QB Tyrod Taylor to play much better this week. The silver lining of last week was Rex Ryan's defense looked a lot better than it did in 2015. They allowed just 83 yards rushing on 28 carries, which is key here as the Jets' passing game is not dynamic. The Bills also covered their final four regular season home games last year. If they can beat the Jets on the road in a Thursday night game (did so last year), then they can do the same at home this year. 10* Buffalo |
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09-11-16 | Patriots +6.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 23-21 | Win | 100 | 55 h 53 m | Show |
8* New England 1st Half (8:30 ET): Please note that this is a 1st half play only. The Patriots could probably be excused for losing this one. Not only is Tom Brady suspended, but Rob Gronkowski is out as well. Gronk would have obviously been Jimmy Garoppolo's favorite target, so NE definitely looks to be "up against it" here in Week 1, visiting a team that went 13-3 SU a year ago. Both of these teams' 2015 seasons actually ended on Championship Weekend. If there's one thing I've learned through the years, it's never to doubt Bill Belichick as an underdog, but this time comes w/ a caveat. It's a first half play only as I think Garoppolo and company start stronger than expected while the Cardinals won't be quite as dominant as people may think. There are some signs pointing down for Arizona this year. They went 6-1 SU in one-score games a year ago, which typically signifies regression is coming the following campaign. Keeping your starting QB healthy is paramount for every team in this league, but especially this one. Carson Palmer is now 36 and while he's coming off a career year, I seriously doubt he'll be able to maintain 2015's numbers. Last season did not end well, and granted Palmer was banged up, but a 49-15 loss at Carolina in the NFC Championship Game was not a "good look." Because of the Brady news, this line has obviously moved significantly and as a result it has created some opportunity and value on the other side. I believe that opportunity lies in the first half. Over the last three seasons, New England is 6-1 STRAIGHT UP and ATS as a dog. That's really incredible. It's been my experience that the public often overreacts to personnel absences, such as the one w/ Brady here. Granted, Brady and Gronk both being out probably does justify the line moving as much as it has, but I still expect the Pats to keep this one close for at least a half. Quite frankly, I wouldn't be surprised if they had the halftime lead. Note that in the first 15 weeks of last season, there was only ONE game that New England trailed by more than a single point. There were three times last year where Arizona rallied from a halftime deficit to win the game. 8* 1st Half New England |
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09-11-16 | Vikings -3.5 v. Titans | Top | 25-16 | Win | 100 | 419 h 50 m | Show |
8* Tennessee (1:00 ET): Though the line has come down in the wake of the (season-ending) injury to Vikings QB Teddy Bridgewater, this play is absolutely still valid. I had Minnesota regressing anyway this season, so the Bridgewater injury now basically ensures that will happen. Meanwhile, the Titans can only go up after finishing tied for the worst record in the league last year (3-13 SU). What we have here is a battle of the teams that finished w/ the best (Minnesota) and worst (Tennessee) ATS records last year. The Vikings were 14-3 against the number, including a cover in their playoff loss to Seattle, while the Titans were just 4-11-1. Some good old fashioned regression to the mean starts here in Week 1. I expect a SU win by the home team here, but take the points if you can get them. Minnesota jumped from 7 to 11 wins last year and wound up winning the NFC North. HC Mike Zimmer has certainly built this team "the right way," but there's no sugarcoating the impact of the Bridgewater injury. Yes, RB Adrian Peterson was the driving force of the offense last season, but he also benefited from having 2014 off (suspension). Now at age 31, don't be surprised to see a dropoff in production, especially w/ Shaun Hill now being his quarterback. I thought the trade for Sam Bradford was not a necessity, but rather a disaster, considering what they had to give up. Regression was inevitable for this Vikings team as they were actually outgained on a per game basis last year. The acquisition of Bradford won't counteract that. Minnesota has also been a little "lucky" in the sense that they've gone 3-0 in OT games the L2 years. That's the best such record in the league during that time. Tennessee "earned" the #1 overall draft choice w/ that 3-13 SU record a year ago, but traded out of the spot and quite frankly ripped Los Angeles off blind. The haul of draft picks the Titans got back in return will help this team improve over the long-term. Of course, one of the reasons they were able to trade out of that spot is they already have QB Marcus Mariota, who is back to full health after missing five games in his rookie campaign. The team didn't win any of the five games Mariota failed to finish. Though we think of the Titans as a bad team and they were outgained by roughly 30 YPG last year, that's only seven YPG worse than the Vikings! This team's luck is also due to improve after going a combined 3-11 SU in one-score games the L2 seasons. I like the addition of RB DeMarco Murray for the offense. Mike Mularkey may not have been the most inspired hire as HC, but the Titans steal this one. 8* Tennessee |
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09-11-16 | Browns +6 v. Eagles | Top | 10-29 | Loss | -104 | 419 h 49 m | Show |
10* Cleveland (1:00 ET): Nothing is being expected from the Browns this year. Their projected win total of 5.0 (opened 4.5) is the lowest in the league. They went just 3-13 SU last year (5-10-1 ATS), a record I all but called for. (I had them to finish Under the win total of 6.5.) But for 2016, I'm actually willing to go out on a limb and say they'll win more games. I like the hire of Hue Jackson as the new head coach as he did a great job as the OC in Cincinnati the L2 years, plus he did a decent job in Oakland, his only previous head coaching gig. Bringing him in also significantly weakens a division rival. Whether or not RGIII turns out to be a "one year rental" is immaterial as he will be an upgrade over the team's atrocious QB play last year, particularly that of the disgraceful Johnny Manziel. Yes, a number of key players exited on defense, but one must question their value given the results of 2015. The Eagles have moved on from Chip Kelly after three years. While the narrative will be that his tenure was not a success, note the team did post B2B 10-win seasons in 2013-14 (one playoff appearance) before "quitting" on him LY and falling to just seven. Kelly the GM was a bigger problem than Kelly the coach and left quite a mess for his replacement, Doug Pederson, who comes by way of the Andy Reid coaching tree and previously served as the OC in Kansas City. Many of Kelly's biggest moves (as a GM) were immediately "undone" as RB DeMarco Murray was jettisoned in the offseason as was LB Kiko Alonso. The defense will undergo a transformation, moving from a 3-4 to a 4-3, which could cause growing pains. Pederson's first challenge is to stabilize the QB position. Obviously, this line was dramatically affected when Philly traded projected starting QB Sam Bradford to Minnesota. To me, the move is irrelevant as I always thought Cleveland could take this game straight up. The Eagles are now throwing top draft choice Carson Wentz "to the wolves" and I simply do not think he's ready to be a starting NFL QB just yet. Look for this to be the proverbial baptism by fire. Ironically, it was the Browns that Philly traded with to get Wentz. So in some regards, the Eagles are the "gift that keeps on giving" for Cleveland (Philadelphia gave up far too much I thought). I also think we'll look back at this line in a few months and be shocked that the Eagles could ever be favored, against anyone. I have them projected as one of the worst teams in the entire NFL, even worse than the Browns! Take the points. 10* Cleveland |
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09-11-16 | Raiders v. Saints | Top | 35-34 | Loss | -115 | 419 h 49 m | Show |
8* New Orleans (1:00 ET): Whoa. I know that little is expected from the Saints this year, but this is quite the lack of respect for a home game against a West Coast team. Oakland is one of the real "trendy" picks coming into 2016, but I'm not on board. They jumped from 3 to 7 wins last year, which is usually a sign of regression the following year. Also, there is the fact that this is a game out East. While not quite the Eastern Time Zone, it is far enough that the the Raiders' poor history must be revisted. Going into last year, the Silver and Black had lost 11 straight away games and 19 of their last 20! They did win a pair of games out East in 2015, but those came against Cleveland and Tennessee, who were the two worst teams in the league. Traditionally, Oakland is a disaster in 1:00 ET starts. Since Dec of 2011, they are 1-5 SU/ATS as a road fave, pick or dog of three points or less on the road anywhere, at any time. Under HC Sean Payton, now in his 11th season, the Saints are 55-29 SU at the Superdome. That includes 47-20 SU L67. As you might guess, it is rare to get Payton's team in this price range here. Going back to October 26th, 2008, there has only been 17 occurrences of New Orleans being favored by three points or less at home, including the five times they have been a dog. They have gone a fantastic 12-3-2 ATS in those games! As a pick or dog, they've gone 5-1 vs. the number. These occurrences are getting exceedingly more common as six of their eight home games last year saw them favored by three or less or come in as a dog. But even in a "down year," they still managed to go 4-1-1 ATS in that situaton. QB Drew Brees is still here, which means the offense is still going to put points on the board. The defense (ranked 32nd LY) can only go up and will be better simply b/c Rob Ryan is no longer around. As alluded to earlier, most view Oakland as a team on the rise. But they were actually outgained by about 30 yards on a per game basis last season, which ranked 24th. For a point of comparison, New Orleans was 18th in that department at -9.6 YPG. As you can tell, I just don't think the Raiders are deserving of this much respect from the linesmakers. I'm not sold on QB Derek Carr and the team isn't that strong at the skill positions. The defense was 22nd in points and yards allowed. They'll struggle to stop the Saints in this venue. I just think this number is crazy given both teams' home/road splits. 8* New Orleans |
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09-11-16 | Chargers +7 v. Chiefs | Top | 27-33 | Win | 100 | 419 h 48 m | Show |
8* San Diego (1:00 ET): This year, the Chargers get the "honor" of being called my most improved team for 2016. I'm on the record as saying I wouldn't be surprised if they wind up winning the AFC West. Improvement begins with the Week 1 tilt in Kansas City, a double revenge spot for the Lightning Bolts. Incredibly, the offense failed to score a single TD in either game vs. the Chiefs last year, losing 10-3 and 33-3. San Diego has actually lost four in a row in this AFC West rivalry, but I have every reason to believe the results can be different this go around. While I'm taking advantage of what's clearly a generous pointspread, I am also dead serious when I say that I would not be surprised to see the underdog take this game straight up! Yes, the Lightning Bolts were a 4-12 (SU) team a year ago. But they did win nine games in each of Mike McCoy's first two seasons here. Last year's team was also nowhere near as bad as its record. Nine of those losses came by eight points or less. As a result, their point differential for the season was "only" -78. That may not sound great, but they had a pythagorean win expectation of basically 6.0 (5.9). Injuries also took their toll on the 2015 Chargers, particularly along the offensive line. It's reasonable to expect improved health this year. In case you forgot, this team still has Philip Rivers, whom I still consider to be the best QB in the division. After a disappointing rookie season, I look for RB Melvin Gordon to have a breakthrough as a second-year pro. This year's first round pick, Joey Bosa, is now signed and I see the Chargers defense being better this year as well. Kansas City is being touted by some as the AFC West favorite (Super Bowl Champ Denver is being projected to regress by just about everyone), but I don't feel they'll benefit from a +19 turnover margin (2nd best) again, like they did last year. There are also some serious injury concerns, on both sides of the ball, and the year has not even started. On offense, RB Jamal Charles may not be ready for Week 1 and that would leave a "by committee" approach at the position. On defense, LB Justin Houston is on the PUP list, which means he's out a minimum of six weeks. The other starting outside LB Tamba Hali just returned to practice last week after having knee surgery. Those are some MAJOR absences. Houston has been the team sack leader EVERY year since 2012, including a near record-setting 22 in '14. I think this Chiefs defense is "ripe for the picking" and Rivers will lead the Bolts to no worse than a cover. 8* San Diego |
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09-08-16 | Panthers v. Broncos +3 | Top | 20-21 | Win | 105 | 30 h 30 m | Show |
10* Denver (8:30 ET): Obviously, there will be two key factors played up for this Super Bowl 50 rematch. One is the revenge angle. Two is the absence of Peyton Manning for Denver. Both, on the surface, would seem to favor Carolina. But, I say "not so fast." It sure appears to me that the public, not the linesmakers, haven't learned their lesson from February. You'll recall that the Panthers were the public side in SB 50 (I had Denver, as did many colleagues) and that didn't work out so well. This number has been bet from Denver -3 to Carolina -3, which is a massive swing. Consider the Broncos were six-point dogs on a neutral field for a game that they won straight up. I believe they can win this game SU as well. Take the points. For the first time in the Super Bowl era, a defending champion will be going with a QB that has never started a NFL game before. That would be Trevor Siemian, who has the unenviable task of replacing Peyton Manning. The last time Denver tried replacing a legendary QB (John Elway), it didn't go so well in '99 w/ Brian Griese. But, fortunately this tine around, Siemian isn't replacing much. Manning had the worst statistical year of his career in 2015 and this Broncos team was clearly carried by the top ranked defense in the league. Much of that group is back. Carolina's offense could manage very little against the Orange Crush in the Super Bowl, scoring only 10 pts. Meanwhile, even w/ Siemian under center, I have to believe that Denver will do better offensively than the only 194 yds gained that day. The dropoff from Manning to Siemian is not going to be as severe as some may fear. Yes, I have Denver finishing the season Under 9.5 wins as they are due to regress after only outscoring opponents by 57 points last year despite a 12-4 finish. They also went 11-3 SU in one-score games. But, you know who else is set to regress? Carolina. The Panthers were 8-1 SU in one-score games themselves and despite ranking 1st in the league in PPG on offense, they were actually outside the top 10 in yards, which is quite the dichotomy. They are also unlikely to again benefit from a league-leading +20 turnover margin. I'm taking advantage of the line move here. 10* Denver |
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02-07-16 | Panthers v. Broncos +6 | Top | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 175 h 18 m | Show |
10* Denver (6:30 ET): I think that an ability to learn from one's own mistakes is something any good handicapper must have. With that being said, I turn to the AFC Championship Game where I of course did have the Patriots (also had the Under, which won). Looking back with the benefit of hindsight, I made a mistake there that I rarely do and that's side with the majority. Denver, despite its status as the AFC's #1 seed, was written off by many (myself included) as an unworthy Super Bowl contender before the playoffs even began. I can't speak for anyone but myself, but I pointed to a suspect point differential (just +59, 5th best in the AFC) during the regular season and a corresponding 11-3 record in close games (defined as those decided by 7 pts or less) both as a sign of incredibly good fortune that would soon go awry. Throw in legitimate concerns about Peyton Manning's health and overall skill level and you had what looked to a phony top seed. But, nevertheless, here they are (Note: I did cash a ticket going against them in the Divisional Round) and I am taking the points with them in Super Bowl 50. Once again, it does appear as if the public is "lining up" to bet against the Broncos here. Early betting patterns had more than three-quarters of tickets/money on Carolina, very similar to the AFC Championship Game vs. New England. Though this is obviously not a home game for Denver, the line has shifted to a point that seems to justify the number for the AFC Championship Game, which was obviously inflated. Now the market is correct in believing that the Panthers are better than the Patriots. But to this degree, I think not. Remember that Carolina has also won its fair share of close games this season; eight in fact by eight points or less and five by five points or less. The last three times they have played away from home, they've either a) lost (to Atlanta) or b) won by only a field goal. A play on Denver here clearly requires a mention of their defense, which is the league's best and one would think the main justification for taking them. Coordinator Wade Phillips (one of the best of all-time) concocted an outstanding game play against New England as the Broncos were able to regularly pressure Brady despite sending only three or four rushers. That shouldn't have been too big of a surprise considering that Denver led the league in both sack and pressure rate. Now they didn't have to concern themselves much w/ a virtually non-existent Patriots running game and a big difference here will be worrying about Cam Newton's ability to scramble, not to mention Jonathan Stewart. But I predict this top-ranked defense (fewest yards allowed) will be up to the challenge as they allow just 3.3 yards per rushing attempt. This clearly will be the best defense that Newton and Carolina have faced all season and note that the perceived league MVP was really able to bolster his numbers by facing some terrible defenses this year (faced Saints twice). On offense, while Manning is absolutely not what he once was, he does have a deep group of receivers that can take advantage of the gaping hole Carolina has at corner opposite Josh Norman. The Broncos were 4-1 SU/4-0-1 ATS as underdogs in the regular season and one final note is that the franchise is remarkable 20-3 SU/17-4-2 ATS when playing w/ a full week of rest. While the most likely outcome here is a very narrow Carolina win, I'd take that as the pointspread is simply too high. 10* Denver |
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01-24-16 | Patriots -3 v. Broncos | Top | 18-20 | Loss | -108 | 78 h 30 m | Show |
10* New England (3:00 ET): I'm a contrarian by nature, so it's rare that you'll find me on a side that is receiving such an overwhelming amount of support (from both the public and the "sharps") as the Patriots are here. But I have such little regard for Denver as a top seed (only +59 in point differential during the regular season. New England was +150.) that I have no qualms about laying the short number on the road. Besides, road favorites are a strong 6-1 straight up and against the spread since the NFL Playoffs expanded to the current format of 12 teams in 1990. The one loss, ironically, came when a #4 seed (Arizona in '09) got to host. So, history certainly favors the Pats here as does recent form when you compare how they looked last week vs. Kansas City to how the Broncos looked against the injury-riddled Steelers. Furthermore, this is a revenge spot, a situation that Bill Belichick and Tom Brady have excelled in the last three seasons (7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS). Lay the points. Though both of these teams won by identical seven-point margins in the Divisional Round, the scripts were hardly similar. New England led the entire way and was only outgained due to a late Chiefs drive that took far too much time. Given they were up two scores, the Patriots defense was more than willing to concede those yards at a snail's pace. On offense, with a full compliment of receivers back, the Patriots went almost exclusively to the pass and it paid off w/ the Chiefs' very good defense never being able to get into any kind of rhythm or bring pressure. If you're concerned at all about the Pats being outgained last week, don't be, as Brady averaged 7.2 yards per pass (compared to 4.9 for Alex Smith) and Denver was outgained far more significantly in its 23-16 win over Pittsburgh (396-324). There, the Steelers proved that you can move the ball on this Denver defense with a pass-heavy approach and it's notable the Black and Gold led going into the fourth quarter. Revenge is often overrated in handicapping, but in this instance it carries significant meaning. New England was a three-point favorite for a Sunday nighter when it suffered its first loss of the season on this field back in Week 12. I had Denver in that game. But it was a lucky win. The Patriots led 21-7 early in the fourth quarter when a muffed punt by return man Chris Harper dramatically changed the game. Denver would go on to score a touchdown thanks to a short field and from there never looked back. While the Patriots were able to force overtime on a 47-yard Stephen Gostkowski field goal, it was for naught as the Broncos won the game on a CJ Anderson 48-yard TD run on their next possession. That loss dropped Tom Brady to 106-3 SU all-time when leading by at least 14 points in the fourth quarter, but fortunately for him a lot has changed since November 29th. Most importantly, receivers Danny Amendola and Julian Edelman are both back in the lineup. Edelman is a vastly underrated piece of the New England offense as the team has won 22 of the last 23 times he's played including a perfect 10-0 this season. In addition to the muffed punt, another key swing in the regular season meeting was TE Rob Gronkowski leaving w/ an injury. He's back too. Another difference from the first meeting is that the Patriots have had an extra day to prepare (played last Saturday) as opposed to the short week they were coming off the first time around (had beaten Buffalo on MNF). I would of course be remiss if I didn't mention that Brock Osweiler was the Denver QB the first go-around, now it's Peyton Manning, who had the worst season of his career. While it's going to be cold Sunday, it's not expected to snow (which it did in the regular season). Brady has typically thrived in colder conditions (59-38 ATS) throughout his career while Manning (19-20 ATS) has not. All signs point to the Patriots getting revenge and moving on to their seventh Super Bowl since 2001. 10* New England |
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01-17-16 | Steelers +8 v. Broncos | Top | 16-23 | Win | 100 | 23 h 35 m | Show |
8* Pittsburgh (4:40 ET): Minus their leading receiver, leading rusher (not to mention Le'Veon Bell) and with what appears to be a limited Ben Roethlisberger, it sure seems as if the Steelers don't even have a "fighting chance" Sunday afternoon in Denver. But to simply write them off would be foolish. There is of course a 34-27 (as seven-point home favorites) regular season win over the Broncos to lean on here. Though there's the change of venue and the fact the Steelers won't be anywhere near full strength, the public's tendency to overreact to injuries makes the pointspread a major factor here as the value is on the visitors. As you might have guessed, this is a large number for the Steelers to be taking. Since taking over in 2007, this is just the third time the Mike Tomlin coached team is getting 7.5 or more points. The last two, both against the Ravens, saw them cover with one outright win. The last instance was 2012. Take the points. Denver is a historically weak #1 seed. Their point differential of +59 ranked only fifth in the AFC and they were quite fortunate to go 10-3 SU in one-score games during the regular season. For the sake of comparison, Pittsburgh finished w/ a +104 point differential, roughly double that of the Broncos, and they were 4th in the AFC in point differential (Patriots, Bengals, Chiefs all better). Since 2002, there has been only one other #1 seed to have a point differential below +100 and that was the '03 Eagles, who did not make the Super Bowl. Peyton Manning's return is being hailed as some sort of "saving grace" in some circles, but I have my doubts as he had - by far - the worst season of his career before getting hurt. There is no guarantee that Manning will be any kind of significant upgrade over Brock Osweiler, if he is even an upgrade at all. Since winning his only Super Bowl in 2007, Manning is just 4-7 SU in the playoffs including a pair of "one and done's" w/ the Broncos. Roethlisberger is the ONLY QB this year to throw for 300+ yards against this Broncos defense. Far from 100% and w/o Antonio Brown, it is unlikely that we will see a repeat performance. But I do believe he'll be able to do enough to at least keep his team within the number. Manning is operating behind a very suspect offensive line, so let us not discount the impact the Steelers' defense can have in this game. Playing their last three games all on the road, this unit has given up an average of just 16 points per game and forced eight turnovers the L2 weeks. While the narrative and circumstances surrounding last week's Wild Card win in Cincinnati deem Pittsburgh to be somewhat "lucky," they led that game 15-0 in the fourth quarter and allowed only 279 yds for the game. I look for a relatively low-scoring affair here and because of that, taking the points is the way to go. 8* Pittsburgh |
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01-17-16 | Seahawks +2.5 v. Panthers | Top | 24-31 | Loss | -100 | 99 h 4 m | Show |
10* Seattle (1:05 ET): To me, this is the most anticipated NFL game of the season. In "one corner," you have the 15-1 Panthers, who already own a victory over the Seahawks in the regular season (in Seattle). In the other, you have the two-time defending NFC Champs, who are clearly playing much better right now than they were back in Week 6 when they hosted Carolina (were just 2-4 SU following the 27-23 loss). It should be pointed out that in the regular season meeting Seattle led 23-14 in the fourth quarter before wilting late. It also should be pointed out that #1 seeds laying three points or less in the Divisional Round are 0-5 ATS since 1990 w/ four outright losses! The Seahawks will remember this situation quite well as they covered in Atlanta (as 2.5-pt dogs) three years ago in a game they should have won. This time they close the deal and likely win outright. But take the points. Regular readers/clients will recall that I actually went AGAINST Seattle last week in Minnesota. That had a lot to do w/ the unfavorable conditions (weather), plus laying that many points on the road in the playoffs isn't necessarily the best idea. Some will be willing to tab the Seahawks' 10-9 victory over the Vikings as "lucky" seeing as kicker Blair Walsh missed a chip shot. But "luck" has rarely gone Seattle's way this year as they entered the postseason w/ a 2-5 SU record in games decided by one score. That was easily the worst mark among the 12 playoff teams. Carolina, for the sake of comparison, is 7-1 SU in one-score games. So, I'd make the argument that "luck" was bound to start going the Seahawks way. At the same time, it's also bound to start going AGAINST Carolina, who is also a league-best +20 in turnover margin. Seattle has given the ball away the third fewest number of times in the league and quite frankly I'm glad last week's game went the way it did as the result ensured there would still be some value on them this week. While the Panthers have the flashy record, three of their last five games were decided by seven points or less, including their lone loss (at Atlanta) and two wins by a field goal. On defense, there is a concern at cornerback across from Josh Norman as two injuries have them relying on the combination of Robert McClain and Cortland Finnegan. Expect the Seattle offense to exploit this. The Seahawks are third in the league in rushing yards and it looks like they'll be getting a fresh Marshawn Lynch back. That's a very big deal. So too is the fact they lead the league in scoring defense (17.3 PPG allowed) for the year and in the last six road games they've given up just ONE touchdown and an average of just over 200 yards per game. Pete Carroll is 4-1 ATS as an underdog the L3 seasons and 6-1 SU when seeking revenge for a loss. 10* Seattle |
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01-16-16 | Packers +7 v. Cardinals | Top | 20-26 | Win | 100 | 76 h 51 m | Show |
8* Green Bay (8:15 ET): I have to say that it was certainly nice to see the "old" Aaron Rodgers back as the Packers rolled to a 35-18 win and cover over Washington in the Wild Card round. I was on the Pack and after they fell behind early (11-0), the math doesn't lie as they really did dominate the game. While some of that is attributable to the woeful Washington defense, it did seem as if Rodgers was as comfortable as he's been in weeks. The running game also picked up w/ 123 yards in the second half alone. Arizona's defense, we know will certainly present a greater challenge, but I feel as if the absence of Tyrann Mathieu (aka "the Honey Badger") isn't being discussed enough. I'll call for a little bit of a "carryover" from last week for Rodgers and company and take the points. Now you probably recall how the Cardinals absolutely decimated the Packers on this very field just three weeks ago. The final score was 38-8 and even that somewhat undersells just what a beatdown that game was. Arizona finished w/ a 381-178 edge in total yards and it was Rodgers' worst day as a pro - both statistically and in terms of margin of defeat. It should be noted that two Cardinals touchdowns did come on fumble returns, however. If Green Bay is looking for a source to draw inspiration from, they need to look no further than last week's Seattle-Minnesota Wild Card Game, which was a rematch of a one-sided regular season game that ended up much closer than expected. Green Bay is at the disadvantage of being the road team for a second time, but is 8-1-1 ATS as a January underdog. Teams seeking revenge for a regular season loss of 30+ pt loss in the playoffs are a surprising 7-11 straight up and even better against the spread. This is also just the second time since 2011 that Rodgers and the Packers have been an underdog of at least seven points. The only other time was last year's NFC Championship, a game they easily covered (I took them!) and should have won straight up. I'm not a fan of the term "momentum" by any means, but while there's no denying that Green Bay's confidence is "up" following last week's performance, Arizona's may be a little shaken after getting punched in the mouth by Seattle in the regular season finale (lost 36-6). Finally, don't forget about the underrated Green Bay defense I talked about last week. This unit allows only 20.1 points per game. They've allowed more than that just three times in the last 14 games! 8* Green Bay |
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01-16-16 | Chiefs v. Patriots -5 | Top | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 72 h 12 m | Show |
10* New England (4:30 ET): Kansas City thoroughly dominated last week in a 30-0 win over Houston. But despite that lopsided final score, I really wasn't that impressed with the Chiefs performance. I say that objectively speaking, not as a bitter Texans backer. Total yardage was "only" 314-226 in favor of KC and first downs were only 18-14. The game was largely decided on five turnovers by Houston QB Brian Hoyer, who turned in one of the absolute worst playoff performances in the history of his position. Watching the game live, you couldn't help but think Hoyer's continued presence on the field all but guaranteed his team losing. In my analysis for the game, I wrote how instrumental turnovers had been during this 11-game run by the Chiefs and sure enough they are now +18 in that department for the year.Tom Brady is obviously a huge step up from Hoyer and interestingly enough, the Patriots have given the ball away fewer times (14) than any other team in the league! I see KC's 30th ranked pass offense having trouble keeping up in this one and it's notable this will be just the second time they have been an underdog in these last 11 games. Lay the points. The challenge of facing Brady is exacerbated by the fact this is a home game for New England. Over the last three seasons, the Pats are 25-2 straight up in Foxboro and 17-7-1 against the spread. Getting them in this price range is pretty rare and a great value. Since 2010, the team is 24-3 SU and 19-7-1 ATS laying seven or less at home (Note: I had originally published a SU/ATS record of NE laying seven or less in ALL games, not just at home). The last three seasons, they are 11-1 SU and 9-2-1 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 pts. The Patriots did end the regular season w/ B2B losses. But both were on the road and against division opponents. Throw in that they were dominated LY in Arrowhead (41-14 loss - "We're on to Cincinnati.") and New England should be supremely motivated here. Bill Belichick is a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS when off B2B SU losses as a favorite. Brady will have his favorite weapon - Julian Edelman - back for this game. Meanwhile, the Kansas City offense's top receiving threat, Jeremy Maclin, has a high ankle sprain. Don't discount this Patriots defense, which ranks in the top 10 in scoring and yards allowed. Kansas City has not been an underdog since Week 10 when Peyton Manning imploded and turned the ball over multiple times. I'll say it again: the Chiefs struggle when they aren't forcing turnovers. 10* New England |
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01-10-16 | Packers -1 v. Redskins | Top | 35-18 | Win | 100 | 100 h 48 m | Show |
10* Green Bay (4:45 ET): Recent form has the Packers in the unusual role of NOT being heavily endorsed by the public and the result of that was a real shocker - Washington actually being favored at the open for this Wild Card matchup! Make no mistake about it, Green Bay has struggled mightily down the stretch, particularly on offense where they have not topped 30 points even once since opening the season 6-0. But Kirk Cousins and the Redskins don't impress me at all. Their appearance here is largely owed to the other three teams in their division (NFC East) all imploding at various points of the season. This line has bounced around since the open, but regardless of where it ends up, I'm on the Pack as I expect them to win this game straight up. Aaron Rodgers vs. Kirk Cousins remains a mismatch in favor of the former. Yes, it's been Cousins "playing better" of late, but let's keep in mind that prior to the L4 games he nor his team could string together consecutive quality performances. This four game win streak of theirs came at the expense of Chicago, Buffalo, Philadelphia and Dallas, all teams that were out of contention. Because of the last place schedule they faced, the 'Skins ended up playing only TWO teams that made the playoffs, New England and Carolina, and those two ended up outscoring them by a whopping 71-26 margin. Their defense can be had, especially against the pass. They still gave up 765 yards through the air the L2 games, including 412 (69% completions) in a somewhat misleading 34-23 final over Dallas in the season finale (were +4 in turnovers). So, Rodgers is certainly capable of having a good game Sunday. Prior to this win streak, Washington was only 7-28 SU in the underdog role the previous three seasons (Note: this trend may not end up applying). With Rodgers and the Packers' offense struggling to get back on track, do not be surprised if it is the team's defense that leads them to victory in this one. That unit allowed 20.2 points per game this season. They were torched by Arizona two weeks ago, but other than that, allowed more than 20 points just three other times in the past 13 games. Against Minnesota last week, they allowed only 242 yards total, including just 91 through the air. The Packers have the advantage here of having been in the playoffs before while Washington has not. They also played a much tougher regular season schedule. 10* Green Bay |
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01-10-16 | Seahawks v. Vikings +5 | Top | 10-9 | Win | 100 | 96 h 23 m | Show |
8* Minnesota (1:05 ET): This is a bit of a tough one for me. I don't really believe the Vikings have a shot of winning this game outright. Seattle comes into the playoffs as perhaps the top team in the league (at least in Vegas' eyes) and forget about just winning this game, many feel that they can get back to the Super Bowl. But they are the third largest favorite we've seen in the Wild Card Round (since '03) and the only other two higher - New Orleans in 2011 and Pittsburgh in 2012 - both actually lost their games outright! In what figures to be a low-scoring affair (total is down to 39.5), points could be at a premium. Also, Minnesota was the best team in the league at covering the spread as they went 13-3 ATS during the regular season (including 5-1 ATS as a 'dog). Take the points. Now there is the fact that one of the Vikings' three ATS losses was hung on them by the Seahawks, who came here to the Twin Cities last month and rolled to a dominant 38-7 win and cover. Minnesota's only touchdown came on a late kickoff return and they were outgained for the game 433-125 (25-9 first downs!). Because of this, the natural reaction is to back Seattle again, even though the spread here is several points higher than it was for the regular season meeting. However, I don't think the NFL schedule-makers did the Seahawks any favors by making them play at 1:00 ET (10 AM ET West Coast) again. Remember that two weeks ago, this team did lose at home to St. Louis as well. So it's not as if Seattle is infallible. Something the Vikings must do here, that they failed to do in the initial meeting, is establish Adrian Peterson and the ground game. Teddy Bridgewater is not going to beat the Seahawks throwing the ball, especially if Peterson ends up w/ only 18 yards on eight carries as he did the first go around. I would say a repeat of that performance though is highly unlikely. Note that Minnesota has covered all four games since even though Peterson's rushing numbers haven't been all that great. It's supposed to be very cold on Sunday and I think that home field advantage the Vikings have here isn't being taken into account enough. They went 6-2 SU/ATS at home this year, bringing them to 15-8 SU/ATS the L3 seasons here. Furthermore, they are 32-16 ATS in all games the L3 seasons including 21-10 ATS as a dog. Seattle is only 3-5 ATS (three outright losses) as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points the L3 seasons. This spread is just too high. 8* Minnesota |
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01-09-16 | Steelers v. Bengals +3 | Top | 18-16 | Win | 100 | 80 h 33 m | Show |
8* Cincinnati (8:15 ET): You have to feel somewhat for the Bengals. Likely without starting QB Andy Dalton (this play is valid if he does somehow play), they draw the division rival Steelers for a third time this year. Pittsburgh comes in as hot as any team in the entire, wide-open AFC, though it was just two weeks ago that they suffered what seemed to be an unfathomable (and at the time, killer) loss to Baltimore. As you undoubtedly know, Cincinnati is 0-6 SU/ATS in the playoffs under HC Marvin Lewis and that, along with having to start AJ McCarrron at QB, is why this team finds itself as a home dog for this AFC North rubber match. However, I believe the linesmakers have errored. Despite Pittsburgh's strong finish, I still would have Cincy favored on a neutral field, making them an incredible value Saturday night. They were 12-3-1 ATS in the regular season. Take the points. Divisional rubber matches are fairly common. This will be the 17th since 2003, but what makes this one somewhat unique is that the road team won both matchups in the regular season. It was Ben Roethlisberger's first game back from an early season injury (missed 4 games) when Cincy went into Pittsburgh and won 16-10 (as a Pick 'em!). Ironically, it would be the last time Andy Dalton played that the Steelers then returned the favor in Cincinnati, 33-20 (as 1-pt dogs). That game swung dramatically on a McCarron "pick-six" thrown shortly after his entry into the game. With more experience now under his belt, I would not anticipate a similar mistake being made here. This is also not a great spot for Pittsburgh as it will be their third consecutive game on the division road. They haven't played particularly well the L2 weeks, especially in the loss to the Ravens. But even in LW's 28-12 win at Cleveland, you had the feeling they would have lost to a better opponent. The Browns were starting third string QB Austin Davis, remember, and it was still only a one-score game heading into the fourth quarter. The Steelers may be w/o RB DeAngelo Williams here, leaving them in a situation similar to last year's Wild Card Game when they lacked a feature back and got beat (at home by Baltimore). I believe that the McCarron and the Bengals offense will be able to move the ball on a Pittsburgh defense that is suspect and reliant on forcing turnovers. Going back to the concept of the divisional rubber match, this is the seventh time since '03 that we have had two division opponents meeting in the playoffs and the road team won both regular season meetings. Fortunately for the Bengals, four of the last five hosts have won the playoff game. But what they won't want to here is that the other time this situation occurred was back in '06 when the Steelers came to town and beat them (as a road favorite). That was the infamous Kimo von Oelhoffen game. However, those were different teams. Pittsburgh had a much better scoring differential that year than did Cincinnati (+131 to +71), which is NOT the case this year (+140 to +104 in favor of the Bengals). I looked it up and there have been only two previous instances since '03 where the road team was favored in the playoffs and had the inferior YTD point differential. Both times that road favorite failed to cover! Cincinnati absolutely has the better defense in this matchup as they are second in the league in scoring (17.4 PPG allowed) and that will help them do no worse than a cover here. 8* Cincinnati |
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01-09-16 | Chiefs v. Texans +3.5 | Top | 30-0 | Loss | -113 | 76 h 54 m | Show |
10* Houston (4:35 ET): This one may come as a surprise to you. Obviously, when looking at this year's Wild Card matchups, the first thing that should jump out at you is we have three road favorites (could end up being FOUR). This isn't unprecedented (happened in '09), but it is unusual. Of the three home dogs, the one the public will like the least is almost certainly going to be the Texans, who at 9-7 SU won a weak AFC South to get here. But don't make the mistake of being fooled by records. Houston, led by its tremendous defense, was a much better team during the second half of the season (beat the Bengals in Cincinnati). They finished the regular season by winning seven of their last nine games and in five different wins allowed just six points! Yes, Kansas City enters the playoffs on a 10-game win streak, but they faced a pretty weak schedule and struggled late in the year when failing to produce turnovers. They also have their own awful playoff history (1-10 ATS L11!) to contend with. (last win = '93). Take the points. "Styles make fights" and this particular matchup isn't a great one for the Chiefs. Sure, they are getting back pass-rushing specialist Justin Houston and Texans' QB Brian Hoyer (1st career playoff start) shouldn't scare anyone. But it's the Chiefs' offense that has me concerned here. As noted earlier, they'll be facing a tremendous defense, one that does an excellent job defending the pass (particularly shorter routes, which are KC's bread and butter) and the run. We know Alex Smith struggles to push the ball downfield and relying on the run game may not work here either. Over its L3 games, the Texans have allowed just 112 rushing yards - total. For the season, they allow just 77 rush YPG here at home. Usually, when I choose to play against the Chiefs it is because they're favored and their offense isn't likely to create a lot of separation. Andy Reid's team is just 1-3 SU/ATS its last four games, failing to top 23 points three times. Houston allows just 15.6 points per game here at home. So much of Kansas City's success this year was predicated on forcing turnovers. They were #2 in the league in TO margin at +14 (only Carolina at +20 was better). During this 10-game win streak of theirs, there hasn't been a single game where they didn't take the ball away at least once. But again, I'll reference those late season wins against San Diego, Cleveland and Oakland. Those were the only three of the 10 that they didn't force multiple turnovers and every time they failed to cover. Houston has turned the ball over multiple times just once in its last nine games and that game came w/ TJ Yates starting. Provided Hoyer doesn't turn the ball over here (which was the issue in the Week 1 loss), the Texans have a great chance at taking this game outright. Though I would highly recommend "shopping around" for a line of +3.5 (play stands regardless) as "the hook" can sometimes make all the difference in the world. 10* Houston |
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01-03-16 | Vikings v. Packers -3 | Top | 20-13 | Loss | -119 | 55 h 46 m | Show |
8* 1st Half Green Bay (8:30 ET): Please note that this is a first half play only. In handicapping the NFL, many times you have to take advantage of what the public saw the previous week and use it "against them." Such is the case Sunday night when the NFC North champion will be decided at Lambeau Field as Minnesota takes on Green Bay. The Vikings are coming off a high-profile, national TV win (played last Sunday night) over the Giants, whom they destroyed in grand fashion, 49-17 (as seven-point favorites). The Packers, on the other hand, were mauled by Arizona 38-8. The end result of those two very different games is that Green Bay is now available much cheaper than they would have been otherwise. Remember that they did beat the Vikings, in Minnesota, 30-13 last month. The line for that game was around a Pick 'Em, so judging by that standard laying anything less than a touchdown here seems like a bargain by comparison. Again, just to be clear, this is a first half play only. Green Bay clearly does have some offensive issues right now, but remember that going into the first game vs. Minnesota, they'd lost three in a row, including the previous week as double-digit home favorites to Detroit. Given what happened to the Packers last week, I expect them to come out strong on their home field tonight. For the season, these teams are eerily similar in scoring averages. Both average 10.3 points per game in the 1H. But here at home, the Packers' scoring average jumps to 14.0 PPG in the 1H. Their defense has been surprisingly strong this year at Lambeau (16.7 PPG), particularly so in the 1st Half where they allow only 6.7 PPG. Back in that first meeting of the season, the Packers led 16-6 at halftime. In the cases of both of these teams last week, the games really didn't get out of hand until the second half. Minnesota, in fact, hardly even outgained the Giants for the game (were +3 in turnovers). The one knock against the Vikings is that they don't beat the good teams as they are just 1-4 SU against those who will be in the playoffs. QB Teddy Bridgewater, who threw for only 168 yds LW, has NEVER beaten a team w/ a winning record on the road. The Vikings offense is still somewhat one-dimensional and in that first meeting, the Packers did a great job at stopping Adrian Peterson, holding him to a season-low 45 yards. Aaron Rodgers is 10-1 SU all-time vs. the Vikings and I'm calling for he and the Packers to get out to a strong start in this one. 8* 1st Half Green Bay |
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01-03-16 | Seahawks +6.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 36-6 | Win | 100 | 51 h 34 m | Show |
10* Seattle (4:25 ET): Count me among those on the Arizona Super Bowl bandwagon after they absolutely destroyed Green Bay last week, 38-8 here at home. This is a team that now owns a point differential north of +200, which is quite the rarefied air. Only two teams this century have outscored their opponents by more than 200 points over the course of a single season and ironically, those two - the '01 Rams and '07 Patriots - both LOST in the Super Bowl. Speaking of Super Bowl losers, last year's is the opponent for the Cardinals this week and as impressive as Carson Palmer and company looked last week, I believe this line is inflated. Seattle should want to win this game as being the #5 seed means they would play Washington in the Wild Card Round next week and not the NFC North winner. Take the points. We saw this spread "shoot up" during the course of the week, not only as a result of Arizona's big win last week, but also Seattle losing outright to St. Louis. Furthermore, Carolina lost last week too, which gives the Cardinals an outside shot at earning home field advantage for the entire playoffs. But that "dream" scenario is just that and would require not only a win here by the Cards, but also a loss by the Panthers (at home) to Tampa Bay. I think there's a good chance that Arizona HC Bruce Arians looks up at the scoreboard on Sunday, sees Carolina ahead of Tampa Bay and then decides to rest his own starters. Just to get an idea of the kind of line value that's in play here, the advanced line for this game actually Arizona +2.5! Five of Seattle's six losses this year have come by seven points or fewer. I know the tendency will be to knock them for losing last week at home to the Rams, but for whatever reason, Jeff Fisher just seems to have their number. Now, Arizona did go to Seattle and win 39-32 earlier this year. But still, I feel this line has been overadjusted for the rematch. The Seahawks were a perfect 5-0 SU in revenge spots the L3 seasons (4-1 ATS) prior to last week's loss, which by the way is the ONLY game this season where the Seahawks never led. They are not an underdog often and I feel it is appropriate here to take advantage as there's a good chance (that despite what they're saying) the Cardinals could be resting starters, Palmer especially, by the fourth quarter. I say let's use last week's results to our advantage and grab a generous number. 10* Seattle |
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01-03-16 | Bucs +10.5 v. Panthers | Top | 10-38 | Loss | -107 | 51 h 33 m | Show |
8* Tampa Bay (4:25 ET): This is yet another game where we have a double digit favorite needing to win. The chances of that result are likely, but the pointspread is again the "great equalizer" and in this instance it's yet another inflated number. Carolina suffered its first loss of the season last week (I went against them!) and now must avoid another here in order to preserve homefield advantage in the NFC. The way I anticipate this game going is the Panthers getting out to a lead and then resting starters late. Of course, there is the fact that the previous five teams to all suffer their first loss of the season all lost their next game SU as well! Most recently, it was New England (as a DD fave) suffering a shocking loss at the hands of Philadelphia. Take the points here. I'm a little disappointed in Tampa Bay this season. Sure, they have improved dramatically from LY's disastrous 2-win campaign, but w/ the #1 overall draft pick (QB Jameis Winston), a natural improvement was to be expected. This team was 6-6 SU at one point, but they've since dropped three straight games, all of them close. Last week, it was a 26-21 loss (at home) to Chicago, leaving them needing this game to go Over their season win total (6.0), a bet I am on. It should be noted that despite losing, the Bucs have outgained their previous two opponents and have now finished with the edge in total yardage in 11 of 15 games this season! Only two teams (Carolina being one of them) have outgained 12 opponents this year. Two weeks ago, this Bucs offense put up over 500 total yards in a 31-23 road loss to St. Louis. Last week, they put up 389, but were -3 in turnovers. Winston is going to finish with the third-most passing yards ever by a rookie and the team has suffered only two double digit losses (neither by more than 14 pts) since the first weekend of October. These teams first met back in Week 4 and it was the Panthers prevailing by a score of 37-23. But that was yet another misleading final for the Buccaneers as they actually finished the game w/ a somewhat pronounced 411-244 edge in total yards (but were -4 in turnovers). Winston is obviously more polished now than he was back then and it was two defensive TD's that accounted for the final margin back in Wk 4. As I've mentioned previously, Carolina might have entered last week unbeaten, but they have surprisingly few blowout wins on their resume. Only three times this season have they prevailed by more than two touchdowns and we've started to see signs of their defensive regressing as well. The offense also misses RB Jonathan Stewart, who is out again this week. This will mark the ONLY time this season that they will be a double digit favorite. 8* Tampa Bay |
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01-03-16 | Patriots v. Dolphins +10 | Top | 10-20 | Win | 100 | 47 h 21 m | Show |
8* Miami (1:00 ET): The Dolphins figure to draw little in the way of support here as New England needs this game to clinch homefield advantage throughout the AFC Playoffs. But as a double-digit home dog, they do present some value as this line is clearly inflated due to the situation. Keep in mind that the Patriots could have clinched the #1 seed last week, but lost outright to the Jets. Now the Jets had something to play for themselves, which is not the case here w/ Miami, losers of six in a row ATS. But DD home dogs have been extraordinarily profitable through the years and as we saw w/ the Ravens last week, anything is possible. Since Week 16 of the 2012 season, the Patriots are just 1-6 ATS laying more than a touchdown on the road. That includes non-covers vs. the Colts and Giants earlier this year. Take the points. Though Miami has pretty much been a disaster this year, they have a couple things going for them here. One is that this is the last chance for interim HC Dan Campbell (4-7 SU) to make an impression on ownership. Personally, I wouldn't hire him on a permanent basis, but you never know w/ this organization. Two is that Miami always seems to play New England tough at home. In fact, they've beaten them outright each of the last two seasons here. This is actually the first time all season that the 'Fins are getting more than a touchdown from the oddsmakers, let alone double digits. Last week's 18-12 loss to Indianapolis was a tad bit misleading as the offense had three possessions inside the 10-yard line that did not result in a touchdown. For the game, they outgained the Colts, 361-268. New England is still a beat up football team. It has already been announced that Tom Brady's favorite target (besides Rob Gronkowski) Julian Edelman won't play again this week. Of course, Edelman won't be the only key contributor missing. The team is down to its fourth string running back and OT Sebastian Vollmer is out as well. It's no wonder that the offense has failed to score 30 points seven of the last eight games. On the defensive side of the ball, two linebackers (Dont'a Hightower & Jonathan Freeny) are out as is DE Chandler Jones, who leads the team in sacks w/ 12.5. New England will still find a way to win here, but even if they do build any kind of lead, the back door will almost certainly be open for the Dolphins. 8* Miami |
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01-03-16 | Steelers v. Browns +10.5 | Top | 28-12 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 20 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (1:00 ET): This play is a "cousin" to the one on New England-Miami. Once again, we have a double digit home dog due to the other side needing to win here for playoff purposes. In this case, Pittsburgh not only needs to beat Cleveland to make the playoffs, but also have the Jets lose to the Bills. They find themselves in this situation due to suffering one of the most unfathomable losses of the entire NFL season last week, a 20-17 loss in Baltimore as a double-digit favorite. Those of you who may be thinking lightning can't possibly "strike twice," take note of the Steelers' horrific 0-9 ATS record (since 2008) when asked to lay more than a touchdown on the road. Going back even further (to '93), they are 0-7 ATS as a DD road favorite. Again, while you are always taking an unpopular team (like the Browns here), historically DD home dogs have been very profitable. Take the points. This will actually be the third consecutive week that Cleveland checks in as a double digit dogs. Such an occurrence is really rare. They cashed for me last week in Kansas City, who along w/ Pittsburgh, was considered one of the two hottest teams in the entire AFC. Really, the Browns probably should have beaten the Chiefs. They outgained them (368-258) in the 17-13 loss and allowed just one offensive touchdown. Now, they won't have Johnny Manziel in the lineup this week, but will his 136 passing yards (13 of 32!) really be missed? I realize that Austin Davis was a disaster in his one start (37-3 loss to Cincinnati), but I don't think that he'll be that bad again here. Also, HC Mike Pettine is likely coaching for his job here and cannot lose in blowout fashion. If the Steelers do not end up making the playoffs, they only have themselves to blame for last week's dismal showing in Baltimore. There was really nothing phony about it either. They were outgained 386-308 (were -3 in turnovers) and Ben Roethlisberger was only 3 of 11 for 60 yards (w/ 2 INT's) on passes that went longer than 15 yards. Yes, it's easy to say Pittsburgh will bounce back, but what if they look at the scoreboard and see the Jets winning big in Buffalo? Their motivation then takes a giant hit as they don't control their own destiny and as is the case w/ Miami, at the very worst the backdoor is likely to be open here. The Browns would love to spoil their rival's playoff hopes. 8* Cleveland |
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01-03-16 | Jaguars +6.5 v. Texans | Top | 6-30 | Loss | -101 | 47 h 20 m | Show |
10* Jacksonville (1:00 ET): Despite having started FOUR different quarterbacks this year, Houston is a virtual lock to win the AFC South. It would take an incredible confluence of events for them NOT to end up in first place in the division and it helps that the team chasing them (Indianapolis) appears likely to fire its head coach Sunday. So what I'm saying here is that the Texans' motivation might not be as high as is assumed in this spot. They are starting Brian Hoyer, fresh off a concussion. Meanwhile, QB is not an issue for their division rival and opponent this week. Jacksonville's Blake Bortles has thrown 35 touchdown passes this year (franchise record) and is closing in on another franchise record for most passing yards in a single season. Despite just five wins this season (their most since 2011), the Jaguars are better than you think (outgained 8 of 15 opponents) and are worthy of taking the points. As is the case w/ every game on the Week 17 slate, this is a divisional rematch. Early in the season, Houston beat Jacksonville at home, 31-20. But the Jags were -3 in turnovers in that matchup and actually had a 14-10 lead entering the fourth quarter. It was yet another game where they held the edge in total yards yet lost. At the time, the team stood at 1-5 SU and HC Gus Bradley's (already assured of coming back next year) future seemed to be in doubt. But they would go on to win three of their next four (4-0 ATS). They've since dropped four of five (did beat Indianapolis 51-17), but other than LW's poor defensive showing vs. New Orleans, every other Jacksonville loss since the first Houston game has been by six points or less. Unlike the Saints, the Texans do not have an offense or specifically a quarterback to put up a lot of points. I think that Hoyer is a huge question mark coming into this game. Surprising is the fact the Texans are 4-1 ATS as a favorites this year, but they've also never been asked to lay more than six points. A dominating 34-6 win over the sorry Titans (worst record in the league), along with the perceived "must win" spot, have conspired to inflate this number a bit. Jacksonville has the edge offensively here and I look for them to bounce back from a couple of disappointing showings the L2 weeks w/ a strong effort here. The Texans are a team that have outscored opponents by only two points all year and that's after LW's rout. They are almost certainly in the playoffs, win or lose here, which will hurt their motivation. 10* Jacksonville |
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12-27-15 | Giants +6 v. Vikings | Top | 17-49 | Loss | -110 | 104 h 16 m | Show |
8* NY Giants (1:00 ET): The Giants come in off a crushing defeat last week at home at the hands of the unbeaten Panthers, a game you could argue that they had no business even being in with or without Odell Beckham Jr. OBJ got himself suspended for his actions during the course of that contest and with the G-Men's playoff hopes now on life support, I can't imagine that many will be interested in backing "Big Blue" this week in Minnesota. But I am as this spot offers another one of those "buy low" spots as I don't think the Vikings should be laying more than a field goal here, even though they are now a NFC-best 11-3 against the spread. I'd say that record is due to regress, don't you? Take the points here. I was on the Giants last week and was thrilled to see them "slip in through the back door" against Carolina. The offense topped 30 points for the second straight week, but I'll have to admit right off the bat that doing so here w/o the services of OBJ is going to be hard to accomplish. Doing so even w/ Beckham would have been tough against this Vikings defense, which is allowing just 19.4 points per game. But as you often hear, the pointspread can be the "great equalizer" in situations such as these and wouldn't you know that this will be the most points Minnesota has had to lay in any game all season! That's thanks to last week's number vs. Chicago (won 38-17) actually being bet down. But due to the general inconsistency of second-year QB Teddy Bridgewater and Adrian Peterson not being 100 percent, I don't expect a repeat of that offensive performance here. There's also the issue of Minnesota "knowing" it is in the playoff field as it would take an extraordinary set of events for them not to make it. Next week's game at Green Bay could be "for all the marbles" in the NFC North and I wouldn't be shocked if the players were already pointing towards that game and looking past this one. Meanwhile, New York MUST win here in order to stay alive and I look for the team to be out to prove a point that they can win w/o OBJ in the lineup. I don't know if they can, but certainly the points are generous in this Sunday night matchup. 8* NY Giants |
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12-27-15 | Colts v. Dolphins -1 | Top | 18-12 | Loss | -110 | 97 h 48 m | Show |
8* Miami (1:00 ET): Remember a couple of weeks ago when I said the Dolphins would be a good matchup for the Giants (and the G-Men ended up delivering a 31-24 win)? Well, I feel the same holds true for the Fish this week against the Colts. When it comes to winning the total yardage battle, these are the two worst teams in the entire league. Miami has now been outgained in 12 of its 14 games this season (442-231 by San Diego last week), but Indianapolis has been even worse, getting outgained in 13 of 14 games after putting up a paltry 160 yds in LW's devastating 16-10 home loss to division rival Houston. The ridiculous notion that there was little drop off from Andrew Luck to Matthew Hasselbeck has thankfully been dispelled and the bottom line here is that the Colts are simply an awful football team right now. Lay the points. Dolphins' interim head coach Dan Campbell, flawed as he may be, probably still thinks he can earn himself the gig on a permanent basis with a strong finish to the season. I would definitely advise the front office AGAINST that, even if the team was to win its last two games (New England could rest starters next week). Campbell promised to re-emphasize Lamar Miller and the running game, but that simply hasn't happened. Granted, the game "got away" from Miami rather quickly last week, but that's no excuse for Miller to have only 11 touches, especially since the week prior he had only 12 carries and had gained 7.4 yards per carry. There is talent at the skill positions on this Miami offense and they should be able to exploit an Indianapolis defense which ranks 25th against the run and 29th against the pass. This is more of a play against the Colts, than "on" the Dolphins. Chuck Pagano, just one year removed from the AFC Championship Game, is a lame-duck coach in my mind as it's very likely he's getting fired at the end of the year. Thanks to last week's loss, the team's chances of even getting to the playoffs is now incredibly slim and they know it. Hasselbeck, a 40-year old QB nearing retirement, is really "beaten up" right now by his own admission. Don't be surprised to see third-stringer Charlie Whitehurst (aka "Clipboard Jesus") on the field before this one is over. The Colts are a team that really benefited from a lot of luck (not just Andrew) the L3 seasons, particularly in close games. This year, they have been outscored by 87 points (3rd worst in the league) and have managed just 36 points total the L3 games. They are 0-7 SU/1-6 ATS vs. the AFC East the L3 seasons. 8* Miami |
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12-27-15 | Cowboys v. Bills -6 | Top | 6-16 | Win | 100 | 97 h 48 m | Show |
8* Buffalo (1:00 ET): I would reckon that few will be interested in laying points with the Bills right now as they are out of playoff contention following B2B losses to teams from the NFC East. But I feel that a visit from a Dallas team that's down to its fourth different starting QB this year will bring a temporary reprieve for Rex Ryan's team this week. The Bills have actually lost all three of their non-conference games thus far, including 35-25 to Washington last week, a game that saw them display no sense of urgency whatsoever (fell behind 21-0 by halftime). But they did end up gaining 450 yards in the loss and after a fairly challenging schedule the last several weeks (5 of last 6 games were on the road!), I see them dominating in this drop in class. Lay the points. The quarterback that Dallas must turn to here is Kellen Moore, who you may remember from being College Football's all-time winningest QB at Boise State. Needless to say, I don't expect Mr. Moore to have the same kind of success here at the pro level. Last week, when facing a similar Jets defense, did not go well as he tossed three interceptions despite not even playing the entire game. He also completed only one pass longer than 15 yards, which has been a major issue for this Cowboys' offense w/o Tony Romo. While a surprisingly good defense has been keeping them in games for the most part (I cashed them in the 1st Half last wk), the Dallas offense has been held under 20 points in four consecutive games. As much as the Bills defense has surprisingly struggled under Ryan, I anticipate them having a "field day" here against a QB making his first career start. Over the last three seasons, there have been eight times where Buffalo has lost B2B games straight up. They have responded by going 7-1 SU/ATS their next time out, including a perfect 2-0 SU/ATS this season under Ryan. The one time they did get to play at home since Thanksgiving saw them beat Houston 30-21 as three-point favorites, a win that now looks a little better in retrospect. The Bills still have managed to maintain a positive scoring differential for the year (ever so slightly) while the Cowboys are being outscored by 5.5 points per game. At home, the Buffalo offense (#1 in the league in rushing!) should have a big day, especially if TE Charles Clay is back. 8* Buffalo |
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12-27-15 | Panthers v. Falcons +7.5 | Top | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 97 h 47 m | Show |
10* Atlanta (1:00 ET): I can make a pretty compelling case that the Falcons, who won for the first time since October last week, are being undervalued here. Consider that when they visited Carolina just two weeks ago, they were 8.5-point dogs. Now, at home, the line is nearly the same. I realize that the Panthers (still unbeaten!) won that first matchup 38-0, but Atlanta was really sloppy there, turning the ball over four times and honestly had the look of a team that gave up early. Revenge for that, plus trying to be the team to end Carolina's unbeaten season should have them motivated for this week's rematch and I'm taking the points. Nine of Atlanta's 14 games this season have been decided by one score, so as an underdog they do seem like a really nice value. In fact, this will be the be just the second time all season that Matt Ryan and company have been asked to take more than a field goal from the linesmakers. They are 4-2 ATS as underdogs so far this season w/ four outright wins, including last week's 23-17 "upset" of the Jaguars, which I was on. The turnover bug really sunk this team's fortunes after a 5-0 SU start, but hopefully that problem can be rectified here (they only had one TO last wk). Also, this has been a good home team all throughout the "Ryan era," so taking points should be viewed almost as a premium. The Falcons are 10-5 ATS as home dogs since 2008 (year Ryan was drafted) including 6-1 ATS their last seven. Carolina's last two games on the road have seen their defense turn in less than stellar performances. First, they gave up 38 points to New Orleans and then last week saw them allow the Giants to get back in the game in what was arguably the closest call of their so-far perfect season (won 38-35). Some might think that "close call" (got backdoored) might serve as somewhat of a "wake-up call," but I think that as the pressure mounts, it's going to be difficult for these Panthers to continue to cover spreads as they are always going to get every team's "best shot." They certainly didn't get Atlanta's "best shot" the first go-around, but will here and consider that half of Carolina's victories this season have been one-score games. 10* Atlanta |
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12-27-15 | Browns +13 v. Chiefs | Top | 13-17 | Win | 100 | 97 h 46 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (1:00 ET): Well, I'll go back to the well with the Browns (fourth straight week I'm playing them!), who to this point have certainly given me some "mixed results." They did pick up a rare SU win when I took them (as a favorite) two weeks ago at home against San Francisco. That was Johnny Manziel's first game back as the starter and though the 49ers are admittedly awful, he did appear to give the offense a bit of a "spark" (481 total yards). Then last week in Seattle, Manziel led an 80-yard touchdown drive on the first possession of the game. From there though, things quickly went south as Cleveland gained only 150 yards the rest of the way and ended up losing 30-13 (as 16-pt dogs). It should be pointed out, however, that the Browns were in position to cover until a late field goal was kicked by the Seahawks. This is the second straight time that Kansas City is facing an opponent that just played Seattle the previous week. Last week, it was injury-riddled Baltimore, whom they thrashed 34-14 for their eighth consecutive win. With only home games left against Cleveland and Oakland, Chiefs fans can go ahead and start making their playoff plans. But laying this big of a number could be problematic for an offense that too often bogs down in the red zone and settles for field goals. That was the mentality that I espoused when I went against them two weeks ago vs. similarly downtrodden San Diego and it "played to perfection" as KC won by a score of 10-3 (were favored to win by double digits). That game still stands as the only time all season that KC has closed as chalk of more than a TD - until now. Last week's 34-point output against the Ravens saw them benefit from not one, but two defensive scores. Over the last 12 seasons, teams that are getting double digits for a second consecutive week (like the Browns are here) are cashing at nearly a 67% rate. That makes sense as it's usually a team the public has no affinity for and thus is likely to burn them. Chances are that the underdog in this situation is coming off a blowout loss (like the Browns are here) and it thus presents an opportunity to "buy low." At the same time, I'll "sell high" on the Chiefs. 8* Cleveland |
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12-20-15 | Broncos +6 v. Steelers | Top | 27-34 | Loss | -105 | 122 h 45 m | Show |
10* Denver (4:25 ET): This line, to me, is a classic overreaction the previous week's results. As you know, last week I went against the Broncos as my *10* Game of the Week was on Oakland, who won outright as an 8.5-point dog. But a closer inspection of the box score reveals that was a pretty lucky win for myself as Denver actually outgained the Raiders significantly, 310-126 (20-8 edge in first downs), making that final score one of the "phoniest" of the entire season. Meanwhile, the final score read: "Steelers 33 Bengals 20" last week in Cincinnati, but that too was a bit misleading as the total yardage was basically dead even and the game swung on a pick-six thrown by Bengals backup QB AJ McCarrron, who was forced into relief duty for an injured Andy Dalton. I'm not saying that Denver shouldn't be an underdog in this spot, but getting nearly a full touchdown is pretty ridiculous. Take the points. There have been three times that the oddsmakers have doubted the Broncos this season (i.e. made them underdogs) and all three times they have "answered the bell," by not only covering, but also taking the game outright! The first was a little fortunate as Kansas City shot itself in the foot back in Week 2. But there were also games against Green Bay and New England, granted both at home, where they took care of business. The commonality of those three games is the defense, which has carried the team all season. By most measures, the Broncos have the best defense in the league right now as they allow the fewest yards per game - by a wide margin - as their 272.5 YPG average is 35.3 YPG better than the #2 team. Defending the pass is really where this group stands out (188.2 YPG allowed) and oh by the way, they are also #1 in scoring defense, yielding just 17.3 points per game. HC Gary Kubiak will need that defense to travel here against a Steelers' offense that is firing on all cylinders currently. Pittsburgh has scored 30 or more points in five consecutive games, but you'll note that the Broncos haven't surrendered that many in a game all season. Even in defeat last week, the Denver D turned in one of its finest performances all season. As a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points, the Steelers are just 2-5 ATS the L3 seasons. They are totally overvalued in this spot as this game means just as much to the Broncos, who are trying to hold off the hard-charging Chiefs in the AFC West. Look for this game to come down to the wire. 10* Denver |
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12-20-15 | Browns +15 v. Seahawks | Top | 13-30 | Loss | -102 | 72 h 4 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (4:05 ET): While the idea of Johnny Football going up against a veteran Seahawks secondary, in Seattle no less, should rightly score you, this is a lot of points the oddsmakers are offering up. There can also be no denying that Manziel provided a little bit of a "spark" to the Browns in his return to the starting role last week. While most will simply write that performance off as a case of "facing the lowly 49ers," I was on Cleveland in that spot (most weren't) and they actually dominated the game by more than the final score of 24-10 even indicates. They outgained San Francisco 481-221 and won comfortably despite a -2 turnover margin. Protect the ball here and I have no doubt they can stay within this generous number, especially against a team due to have an "off-game" in the light of a key injury. Seattle has turned in four consecutive impressive performances, winning and covering every time. The most impressive one was a 38-7 beatdown of Minnesota, on the road, where the defense didn't even allow the lone Vikings touchdown (special teams did). They didn't allow a touchdown again last week in a 35-6 dismantling of injury-riddled Baltimore. As much as Manziel has struggled, I absolutely believe that based on what I saw last week, he's a much more dynamic threat than Jimmy Clausen, who quarterbacked for the Ravens. Lost in this impressive run for the Seahawks is the fact they lost another running back as Thomas Rawls, who had filled in more than admirably for the injured Marshawn Lynch, is now out for the season. As good as QB Russell Wilson has looked recently, he's simply not going to throw for five touchdowns every game. What really helped Manziel last week was the fact Cleveland actually got its moribund running game going w/ Isaiah Crowell and Duke Johnson. That will be tougher to do this week against a tremendous Seahawks run defense, but taking this many points all the Browns need here is to make a few big plays and they should be in good shape. We've seen Seattle struggle to defend the tight end position at times this year & Cleveland TE Gary Barnidge has actually been one of the better ones this season (really!). At worst, the proverbial backdoor should be open at the end of the game. Seattle is only 3-3 ATS at home this year, twice losing outright. With two division games where the revenge factor will be in play (St. Louis & Arizona) on deck, I look for the Seahawks to overlook their Week 15 opponent. 8* Cleveland |
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12-20-15 | Panthers v. Giants +5 | Top | 38-35 | Win | 100 | 124 h 35 m | Show |
8* NY Giants (1:00 ET): Unbeaten Carolina, now 13-0 SU (10-3 ATS), has only three games standing between itself and a perfect regular season. I think that most would agree that this week's matchup w/ the NFC East leading Giants shapes up as the toughest. Yes, the Panthers completely dominated last week in a 38-0 win over Atlanta. But that was at home and there was the matter of the Falcons giving them plenty of help (as in four turnovers). Maybe the G-Men are just fortunate to play in the worst division in the NFC (tied for 1st place at 6-7). But they have also held a lead at one point in all but one game this season. They also came through for me Monday night, looking as good as they have at any point all season, in a 31-24 road win over Miami. Tom Coughlin is always dangerous as a dog (3-1 ATS this year), so I'll take the points. Predictably, the majority of the public is on the Panthers. But the line is coming down and that's a strong indicator that the so-called "smart money" is on the home dog in this matchup. Again, while the Giants have been outgained in 10 of 13 games this year, they have blown FOUR fourth quarter leads. Thus, they probably are better than their overall record. While only 3-3 SU at home, those three losses have come by a total of eight points and the largest margin of defeat was only four. Remember that they very nearly upset the then-unbeaten Patriots last month in a similar price range. (I had the Giants in that one!). While Miami's defense isn't even close to as good as Carolina's, it should be noted that on Monday night Eli Manning looked as strong as he has all season. He threw 4 TD passes and was an amazing 15 of 15 on first down attempts. Odell Beckham Jr continued his torrid pace w/ his sixth career multi-TD game. Obviously, the Panthers have a great record in close games. They are 6-0 in games decided by eight points or less this season. That's a far cry from the Giants' 3-6 SU mark in such contests. In the Panthers' previous road game, they won by only three at New Orleans while giving up 38 points. The Giants' offense will present similar problems here, especially w/ the injuries in the secondary. Injuries are becoming an even greater concern on the other side of the ball, however, with Jonathan Stewart (NFL's third leading rusher) already ruled out for Sunday and Cam Newton's favorite target (TE Greg Olsen) dealing w/ a knee injury. I've previously talked about how late in the season teams w/ the best records are generally fade material and compounding matters is the fact the Eli Manning has one of the best December/January ATS records in the league (40-23 ATS). Carolina might be unbeaten, but the Giants need this one more. 8* NY Giants |
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12-20-15 | Falcons +3 v. Jaguars | Top | 23-17 | Win | 109 | 124 h 35 m | Show |
8* Atlanta (1:00 ET): The Falcons just can't get out of their own way. Granted, they weren't going to win regardless, but a -4 turnover margin last week at Carolina did them no favors. Make no mistake about it, not taking care of the football has been the primary issue for this team during what has been an unfathomable nine-game ATS slide. It almost seems like it was a different season, but Atlanta was once 5-0. Since then, they've dropped eight of nine w/ the only win coming by a 10-7 score over Tennessee. The team's TO margin is -11 during that time as they've committed at least one in every game but one and last week was the third time they gave it away four times! Despite this series of disappointing showings, the Dirty Birds remain a solid value this week at Jacksonville, where they are actually catching points. Hopefully, they won't continue their turnover woes. Take the points. First year Atlanta HC Dan Quinn was brought in to improve what had been a woeful Falcons defense and so far he's done a reasonably good job. Before last week's debacle, the most points they'd allowed in any game since Week 3 was 24. Therefore, the real problem lies with Matt Ryan and the offense, which is surprising. There's the obvious issue of turnovers (hate to keep harping on that), but WR Julio Jones has now gone five games w/o scoring a touchdown. That's odd, considering he leads the league in both receptions and receiving yards. As a matter of fact, the Falcons are 8th in the league in total offense (374.6 YPG), but 21st in scoring. Those turnovers as well as red zone issues, sometimes the two coinciding, have just killed them. RB Devonta Freeman has gone six games w/o a touchdown as well. This offense is too talented to have this continue and fortunate for them the Jaguars' defense remains pretty suspect. Two weeks ago, the Jags gave up 42 points to Tennessee and for the year, they allow 27.5 points per game. The reason Jacksonville is favored this week by the oddsmakers and public alike is they are coming off a 51-16 thrashing of Indianapolis, easily their most impressive win of not only this season, but the last several seasons. You have to think that a few weeks ago, the Falcons would have been favored in this spot. When you have one team coming off a blowout win and the other off a blowout loss, it's often a good idea to back the latter as it's usually a "buy low" situation where plenty of value is present. That's certainly the case here. Jacksonville's offensive numbers from the L2 games look great, but note there were two non-offensive TD's scored last week and QB Blake Bortles actually didn't play all that well. RB TJ Yeldon is also out this week. 8* Atlanta |
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12-20-15 | Titans +14 v. Patriots | Top | 16-33 | Loss | -104 | 124 h 35 m | Show |
8* Tennessee (1:00 ET): While the Patriots and Titans may find themselves at opposite ends of the spectrum, laying two touchdowns in today's NFL is a "big ask," and I happen to think that Tennessee isn't quite as bad as the oddsmakers seem to believe they are. Sure, they looked pretty terrible in last week's 30-8 loss to the Jets. But that came on the heels of a rare win and shaped up as a flat spot. I'll concede that there isn't much motivation coming out of Nashville right now considering the team is in line to land the #1 overall draft pick next Spring. But there does have to be a sense of pride here and a desire not to be humiliated. For the record, they are only being outscored by 5.6 points per game this year and they have five losses by six points or less (four by three points or less). Take the points here against a banged up Patriots team. New England picked up a much needed win last Sunday night in Houston, prevailing 27-6 in relatively dominant fashion. But the causalities continue to pile up as LeGarrette Blount is now out after Dion Lewis has already been lost for the season, meaning the team is down to its third string running back. There have been injuries along the offensive line and at receiver all year long as well and as of press time, word came down that Tom Brady isn't feeling well and missed practice on Friday. This offense has now gone six games w/o scoring 30 points, which never used to be the case, and simply put they are not in a position to be covering spreads this large right now. Sure, they handled Houston last week, but that was the defense mostly taking care of business against a Texans offense that came in w/ a poor gameplan. Two weeks ago, Tennessee scored 42 points in its third win of the season. Last week, they were back down to eight. This team still has a long way to go as far as contending for a playoff spot goes, but you have to think that some of these poor trends of theirs are due to start improving (like an 0-8 ATS December slide). This will actually be the first time all season that they are catching double digits. New England has covered both times this season it has been chalk of 10 points or more, but right now I think they're just trying to get to the playoffs as healthy as possible. Covering this spread will not be a priority. As long as the Titans take care of the ball and can score touchdowns, not field goals, they should stay within the generous spread. 8* Tennessee |
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12-14-15 | Giants -1 v. Dolphins | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 115 h 22 m | Show |
10* NY Giants (8:30 ET): Talk about a "must-win" situation for the Giants. Granted, that doesn't necessarily mean they WILL win, and certainly the G-Men have been a difficult team to figure out this year. They've been outgained in 10 of 12 games so far (not good!), but had the lead in all but one. Four times they have blown a fourth quarter lead, last week included, so despite what the total yardage says, they probably should have a better record. They enter Monday night one-half game back of Washington & Philadelphia (both won yday) in the weak NFC East and considering the next two games are against Carolina and Minnesota, winning here truly is a "must." Miami has the same 5-7 SU record, but is essentially out of contention in the stronger AFC. Lay the points. The Dolphins have also been outgained in 10 of their 12 games this year, so this is a good matchup for the Giants. While the teams may have the same record and have been equally poor at winning the total yardage battle, YTD point differential tells a different story and explains why the road team is favored in this spot. Miami has been outscored by 60 points this season while the Giants have actually scored 11 more points than their opponents. So, I don't think that the road team is favored by nearly enough in this one. Yes, favorites have done a terrible job on Monday nights this year, going 2-11-1 ATS, and you'd have to all the way back to Week 6 to find the last time one covered. Ironically, it was the Eagles against these Giants 27-7 (as 3.5 pt chalk) getting it done in that spot. But, despite an 0-4 SU/ATS road record on MNF, Eli Manning & the Giants are "due" here. The Giants come in on a three-game losing streak, but those three losses have come by a combined 10 points. Meanwhile, Miami has routinely been blown out this year and its last four losses have ALL come by double digits while its last two wins have been by a total of three points. The 'Fins were outgained 375-219 last week by Baltimore, at home, and had only EIGHT first downs. A scoreless tie quickly became a 15-0 lead after two TD's in a 20 second span in the second quarter. One of the touchdowns came from the defense though and that cannot be counted on in a week to week basis. Miami is 0-3 ATS its L3 appearances on Monday Night Football and is not ready for "primetime." 10* NY Giants |
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12-13-15 | Patriots v. Texans +3 | Top | 27-6 | Loss | -100 | 91 h 22 m | Show |
8* Houston (8:30 ET): This game was "flexed" into the Sunday Night spot to save us from watching a potential massacre of the Ravens by Seattle. Ironically, it wasn't that long ago that you wouldn't have thought this particular matchup would be very competitive either. But, despite a loss last week in Buffalo, the Texans have really improved while at the same time, New England has suddenly dropped B2B games after a 10-0 start (I correctly went against them both times!). There will be a general aversion to going against Brady & Belichick here due to the duo's scarcity of three-game losing streaks together, but I don't think the small sample size really justifies the trend, plus it's not like the public has stopped backing the Patriots as a small road favorite here either. Still depleted, the Patriots remain fade material (at least for the time being). Take the points. Houston had won and covered four straight before losing 30-21 to Buffalo last week. But don't be "fooled" by the final score there as it was actually a tie game with just two minutes remaining. The Texans rolled up 400 yards of offense and had more first downs (21-15) than the Bills, but ultimately were undone by a late Brian Hoyer interception. But Hoyer (a much better option at QB than the failed experiment known as Ryan Mallet) has generally taken good care of the football this season, particularly when in the red zone, where he hasn't thrown a single INT all season. So, I'm willing to write off LW's pick as a matter of late-game desperation. Of course, the strength of this Texans teams is the defense, led by the incomparable JJ Watt. During the four-game win streak, they allowed just 35 pts total (only 2 TD's, one in garbage time) and remember this team beat then-unbeaten Cincinnati on the road, so an upset here would not be w/o precedent. There definitely was a confluence of events that conspired to beat the Patriots last week, namely three non-offensive touchdowns by the Eagles. But it should be pointed out that the offense was largely held in check after getting out to an early 14-0 lead and that obviously can be pinned on the fact that TE Rob Gronkowski and WR Julian Edelman, Brady's top two targets, were out of action. Neither will be in action Sunday night. This is just a beat up team right now and the idea that, at any point this season, they were comparable to the '07 team that went into the Super Bowl unbeaten was laughable. New England is a surprisingly bad 2-5 SU/ATS as a road favorite of three points or less the last three seasons. 8* Houston |
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12-13-15 | Raiders +8.5 v. Broncos | Top | 15-12 | Win | 100 | 87 h 58 m | Show |
10* Oakland (4:05 ET): It wasn't that long ago that the Raiders were riding high and many were calling them one of the "most improved" teams in the league. However, going into a game at Pittsburgh (on November 8th), I proclaimed the Silver & Black's "stock" to be at an all-time high and going forward, it would probably be a good idea to "sell." While I ended up w/ a losing ticket on the Steelers in that Week 9 matchup, sure enough I was right in the long-term as Oakland has won only one of its last five games and now finds itself on the fringes of playoff contention in the AFC. At 5-7 SU overall, one more loss essentially eliminates them, so I expect a strong effort from Jack Del Rio's team this week in Denver, an opponent that has admittedly not been kind to them through the years. But take the points as this is another division dog w/ plenty of bite this week. Even before Peyton Manning arrived in Denver, the Broncos had enjoyed a long history of dominating the Raiders. In fact, a 16-10 road win back in Week 5 made it eight consecutive wins and covers for Denver in this AFC West rivalry. As we all know, it's no longer Manning under center for the Broncos, now it's Brock Osweiler. Since the change was made (out of necessity), Denver has gone a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS, including an upset of the then-unbeaten Patriots at home. But let's be clear, like the Raiders one month ago, Osweiler's own personal stock has now gotten a little too high as far as I'm concerned. The offense has twice, in three games, failed to top 17 points and against New England, they had just seven entering the fourth quarter. So Osweiler laying his first big number as a starter may not be such a great idea here. Especially w/ the Raiders being a 5-3 ATS as underdogs this year (four SU wins). There have been two keys for Denver since the change from Manning to Osweiler was made. One is a resurgent running game that has averaged 161 yards per game. The Oakland defense, save for one bad day against Adrian Peterson, has done a good job stopping the run this year (107 YPG allowed). So, I look for them to limit the Broncos' production on the ground. Also, the Broncos have been turning in over far less the L3 games than they were w/ the error-prone Manning. Turnovers were the downfall of the Raiders last week at home vs. Kansas City as Derek Carr tossed three interceptions, one of which was returned for a touchdown. The Raiders actually outgained a good Chiefs team for the game, 361-233, and had 12 more first downs. This could very well end up being a low-scoring game, which means taking the points is the way to go. 10* Oakland |
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12-13-15 | 49ers v. Browns -1.5 | Top | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 84 h 54 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (1:00 ET): This is, perhaps, a matchup of the two worst teams in the league. Actually, I would take the "perhaps" out of my previous statement as I do indeed have the 49ers ranked 31st in my own power ratings while the Browns now come in at 32nd ie. dead last. As awful as Cleveland may have looked last week w/ journeyman Austin Davis at QB (and they certainly did look awful in a 37-3 home loss to the Bengals), they do deserve to be a slight favorite here at home. What is the likelihood of San Francisco, who is being outscored by 16.5 points per game on the road, picking up B2B wins out East in consecutive games? I say "not high" and the Browns' move to Johnny Manziel at quarterback should (in theory) lead to a temporary spark. Lay the short number in this "battle of bad." The 49ers won for a fourth time, last week in Chicago. But it was largely a "phony" victory, one that came in overtime and had the Bears outgaining them 364-291. A badly missed field goal (was very makeable) by Bears K Robbie Gould is what gave San Fran "second life" and the opportunity to win in OT. Simply put, the 49ers have not been able to maintain any kind of success this season as following their three previous wins, they've proceeded to go 0-3 SU/ATS the following week, losing by an average of more than 19 PPG! Granted, they twice had to face Seattle, plus Pittsburgh. But last week also marked the team's first road win of the season. I'm not putting much stock into this "new and improved Blaine Gabbert" concept. Before throwing the game winning TD pass against the Bears, he was 0 for 4 for the game on attempts of 10+ yards downfield. The Niners' offense has also been fortunate not to turn the ball over in five of their last seven games. Gabbert has NEVER won B2B starts in his career, going 0 for 6 in that role. Yes, two weeks ago saw San Francisco put a scare into Arizona and I was on them. But that game was at home. As I stated earlier, this team has been downright awful on the road, getting outscored by 16.5 PPG. The issues has been the defense, which allows double the amount of points per game on the road as it does at home. It's not like this is an explosive offense either; last week marked just the third time all season (1st under Gabbert) that they topped 20 points. I realize that Cleveland gives us very little to "hang our hat" on here, but having failed to cover six straight games, I get the feeling that they are due for one more win this season (still likely to get #1 overall draft pick). Telling here is that despite the majority of bets coming in on the Niners here, the line has moved in the Browns' direction, a potential indicator of "smart money" being on the home side. That makes me feel good as does the fact that the advanced line for this game (set last week) was Browns -3. 8* Cleveland |
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12-13-15 | Chargers +10 v. Chiefs | Top | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 84 h 54 m | Show |
8* San Diego (1:00 ET): I'll be the first to admit that my own personal power ratings suggest that there may not be too much value on the dog in this one. The Chargers are in the midst of what I'd dub a "lost" season as a number of key injuries have taken their toll and the results have been ugly: 3-9 straight up & 4-8 against the spread. Last week, at home vs. Denver, saw the offense get held to only three points for the second time in three weeks (in between was a win at Jacksonville). The other occasion came in the first meeting w/ the Chiefs, this week's opponent, who are a red-hot 6-0 SU/ATS their L6 games. When it comes to performance in division games this season, you won't find two teams any further apart than these two, yet I've always been a big believer in division dogs getting more than a touchdown. I'll stick to my principles here and take the points. Kansas City has been playing as well as anybody over the L2 months. Last week, despite not having their best player on EITHER side of the ball (remember that Jamaal Charles is out for the year), they still beat the Raiders 34-20. But that final margin was a little misleading when you consider that the Chiefs actually trailed (20-14) going into the fourth quarter and it was a one-score game before a late INT was returned for a touchdown. KC was actually outgained in the contest, 361-232, and Oakland had almost double the number of first downs (27-15). What caught my interest here is that this is the most points the Chiefs will have had to lay in any game this season. The previous high was a nine-point spread and they lost that game outright, here at home, to Chicago (game where Charles was injured). During this six-game win streak of theirs, Kansas City has only once had to lay more than a field goal (4.5 to Buffalo). Despite a recent scoring surge, which has actually been a byproduct of a +15 turnover margin above all else, this is NOT an offense built to cover spreads this large. Too many times I've seen the Chiefs bog down in the red zone and settle for field goals this year. You have to feel somewhat for Philip Rivers and the Chargers. Injuries and a lack of homefield advantage have really killed morale "in the building." There have also been a number of close losses suffered, six by eight points or less in fact, that helped sink their season. Given the mood around San Diego right now (franchise could be moving), it actually might be nice for the team to play a game on the road here. Public betting, surprisingly enough, has been fairly split on this contest, possibly due to the fact that more people are aware that double digit dogs in division games have cashed 57.7% ATS the L13 seasons. This is just too many points to lay for a Chiefs team that is only outscoring opponents by 6.8 points per game. 8* San Diego |
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12-13-15 | Falcons +7.5 v. Panthers | Top | 0-38 | Loss | -110 | 84 h 53 m | Show |
8* Atlanta (1:00 ET): Carolina very nearly suffered their first loss of the season last week, in New Orleans, but ended up outlasting the Saints by a score of 41-38. But they didn't cover as 7.5-pt chalk and that was good enough for me to cash my 10* NFL Game of the Week! You have to think that they would have gone down had they been facing any other defense besides the Saints' woeful 32nd ranked unit, which gave up almost 500 yards in the loss as well as 33 first downs. Still, that hasn't stopped the public from "getting down" again on the now 12-0 Panthers this week as they host a desperate Atlanta team. As I said last week, betting against unbeaten teams this time of year is typically a good idea as the odds are against them running the table. Sure enough, we've seen once 10-0 New England drop consecutive contests and Carolina, while 9-3 ATS overall, is due to regress. Take the points. You may have forgotten, but both of these teams started the season 5-0 SU. Since then, they've clearly headed in opposite directions w/ Atlanta winning only one more game and actually failing to cover the last eight! This is the longest ATS skid I've seen in a while and it's not hyperbole to say this week's game is likely determines the Falcons' season. At 6-6, another loss would put them two games back of Minnesota, who has already beaten them. Winning this game straight up, on the road, may be too tall an order, but thankfully the oddsmakers have been kind enough to give us more than a touchdown to work with here. Atlanta, who went off as the favorite in most places last week, has not been an underdog since Week 3. At that point, they had been a dog in all three games and wouldn't you know it, the result was a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS record. This is easily the most points that Matt Ryan and company have taken in any game all season (previous high +3 vs. Philadelphia in Wk 1). Though they've lost five in a row straight up, it's not like the Falcons have been getting routinely routed. In fact, four of those losses have been by four points or less, last week included. There, they blew a late lead in Tampa Bay, allowing Bucs' QB Jameis Winston to convert a 3rd and 19 on a scramble (that can't happen!) on a drive that resulted in the go-ahead score. From there, Ryan threw another back-breaking interception, which has been this team's Achilles' heel during the losing streak. Atlanta is -8 in turnover margin its last eight games. During that same timeframe, Carolina is +6 and for the year they lead the league in TO margin. While the Falcons have been losing a lot of close games recently, the Panthers are 6-0 SU in one-score games this season. Look for these numbers to even out on Sunday and, again, don't discount the impact the return of RB Devonta Freeman has on the Falcons' offense. 8* Atlanta |
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12-13-15 | Lions v. Rams +1 | Top | 14-21 | Win | 100 | 84 h 53 m | Show |
8* St. Louis (1:00 ET): It's a "buy low" theme in this week's 3-game report and certainly it's hard to get any lower right now than the Rams, who have been crushed in B2B games, scoring only 10 points in the process. The team's offensive woes extend far beyond the previous two games, however, as they have averaged less than 11 points per game during a five-game losing streak (0-5 ATS as well) thanks to some sub-replacement level QB play from both Nick Foles and Case Keenum. HC Jeff Fisher most certainly now finds himself on the hot seat and if the team can't finish the season reasonably strong, I'd say it's time for he and the franchise to part ways. Predictably, St. Louis is drawing little to no support at the betting window here, which is just fine by me, as I question the morale of a Detroit team coming in off a crushing loss. By now, you've all seen the replay (at least 100 times, I suspect!) of what happened to the Lions last Thursday against Green Bay as they fell victim to an Aaron Rodgers' hail mary pass w/ no time remaining (2nd time this season a game has been won on an untimed down!). For a team w/ little to play for the rest of the way, it is fair to question what Detroit will have "left in the tank" for this one. Yes, the offense has been much better since Jim Bob Cooter was elevated to the offensive coordinator. But there have still been only two times all season where the team has scored more than 23 points. Last week, after racing to an early 17-0 lead over the Packers (thanks in part to a rare Aaron Rodgers' interception), things really bogged down w/ only a pair of field goals the rest of the way. The Rams may not bring much to the table these days, but they do have a defense which allows just 19.8 PPG here at home and that will serve them well Sunday. The key to this play will be the St. Louis' offense doing something, dare I say anything against the Detroit defense. After three straight surprisingly strong efforts, the Lions were back to their "old ways," allowing 27 points last week and they only have themselves to blame on that Hail Mary pass as it was defended very poorly. The Rams made their own change at offensive coordinator this week and hopefully that leads to a resurgence for rookie RB Todd Gurley, who has been held in check the last few games. Keenum will be back under center and honestly, I feel he's a better option at this point than Foles. I'll close by mentioning that a team as bad as the Lions should not be a road favorite. 8* St. Louis |
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12-07-15 | Cowboys +4 v. Redskins | Top | 19-16 | Win | 100 | 20 h 28 m | Show |
8* Dallas (8:30 ET): The Cowboys' Thanksgiving could not have gone any worse as they were blown out, at home, by Carolina and in the process lost QB Tony Romo for the rest of the season. Team morale and stock is likely down to an all-time low for 2015, but if "you know me," then you probably could have guessed that I would be on them in this spot. Yes, it was really frustrating to see "America's Team" get blown out 33-14 on national TV (my NFL Game of the Month). I wasn't happy about it, needless to say. But going "inside the boxscore" reveals that it wasn't necessarily as bad of a blowout as you think as Dallas was outgained "only" 294-210 (18-14 in first downs). The issue was three Romo interceptions, two of which were returned for touchdowns. Take the points here, though we may not need them! The surprising Redskins are in first place in the weak NFC East, but my thinking with this team continues to be that you need to fade QB Kirk Cousins when he's coming off a good game. Last week against the Giants, he threw for 300 yards and more importantly didn't have an INT. Cousins' performances in wins/losses this year have a real stark contrast and it's all about him either protecting or failing to protect the football. All 10 of his interceptions have come in the team's losses and interestingly enough, he hasn't gone B2B games w/o throwing a pick all season, which obviously means the team hasn't had a single win streak! Yes, Washington has been a much better team at home this year (5-1 straight up) and this is the first time this season that they get to play B2B home games. But they are 1-3 ATS off their first four victories, getting outscored by a total 45 points. This Cowboys' defense, which has been much maligned through the years, has actually been pretty good in 2015. Subtracting the two pick-six's from last week, that unit has allowed fewer than 20 points in four of the previous five games. Somehow, they've managed to lose twice during that time while surrendering 13 or fewer points. Both games came w/o Romo. Yes, the Cowboys have been mostly a disaster at the betting window (3-8 ATS) and haven't won a single time this season when their starting QB isn't in the lineup. But tonight marks only the second time Washington has been favored all season and they didn't cover the first (beat Tampa Bay by only 1 pt after trailing big most of the way). 8* Dallas |
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12-06-15 | Eagles +10 v. Patriots | Top | 35-28 | Win | 100 | 81 h 45 m | Show |
8* Philadelphia (4:25 ET): This is one of those "hold your nose" situations as the Eagles could not possibly have looked any worse for me on Thanksgiving Day as they got embarrassed by the Lions of all teams, 45-17. It was the second straight game the defense gave up 45 points and it now appears as if HC Chip Kelly is not long for the City of Brotherly Love, which is too bad. Kelly's Eagles won 10 games each of his first two seasons here, remember, and were 4-4 just three weeks ago after a big Sunday night victory in Dallas. I often harp on the idea of "buying low" and in this instance the stock of the guys in green could not be any lower. Recent form has led to this line being inflated and I'll gladly take the points. New England is off its first loss of the season as last Sunday night saw them blow a 21-7 lead in Denver and lose in overtime, 30-24 as 2.5-pt favorites. Normally, you would not want to step in front of the Patriots off a loss, but this is a depleted team right now. Tom Brady will have virtually NO ONE to throw the ball to this week as TE Rob Gronkowski is out as is Brady's favorite weapon, Julian Edelman. Remember how we had those six unbeaten teams at 5-0 at one point? Well, the previous four to drop a game all have struggled mightily following their first loss. Atlanta hasn't covered a game since (0-7 ATS), Green Bay has lost four of six (including miracle win Thurs night), Denver dropped two games in a row as did Cincinnati. I'm not saying New England will lose SU here, but it won't be the same "blood is in the water" approach we're used to seeing from them. Rather, I think they're main focus is just to get through this game in one piece. The Eagles have been battling some injuries of late too. Their biggest one came at QB as Mark Sanchez was largely a disaster in relief of Sam Bradford. But Bradford is expected to be back on the field Sunday and that's a huge boost for the offense, which couldn't do much w/ Sanchize at the helm. The team was up on Miami when Bradford got hurt three weeks ago and has been outscored 107-34 ever since. As much as I don't buy Bradford as any kind of long-term option as a franchise QB, at least he brings stability to the offense. The beleaguered defense gets a break w/ the Patriots own offensive issues and if Philly has any pride whatsoever, then they'll be in this one until the very wend. Just to show how much respect they've gotten from the oddsmakers this season, this will be the first time that the Eagles are dogs of more than a field goal! 8* Philadelphia |
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12-06-15 | Panthers v. Saints +7 | Top | 41-38 | Win | 100 | 81 h 45 m | Show |
10* New Orleans (4:25 ET): Carolina sure did make a lot of people look foolish Thanksgiving Day (including myself) as they went into Dallas and absolutely destroyed the Cowboys, 33-14, in a game where they actually opened as the underdog despite their 10-0 (now 11-0) SU record. However, as was the case w/ New England last week (who I went against and won), I don't buy any team running the table this regular season. The last five teams to lose their first game of the season (Atlanta, Green Bay, Denver, Cincinnati, NE), I've been on the right side EVERY time and honestly I can see this week being "that time" for the Panthers, who were actually not as dominant last week as the final score indicated. Take the points here. As we go "inside the box score" a little further, it is revealed that Carolina had a lot of help in achieving last week's blowout victory, mostly from the other side! Cowboys QB Tony Romo threw three terrible interceptions, two of which were returned for Panthers' touchdowns and at that point, the game was basically over. Carolina outgained Dallas by "only" an 84-yard margin and you have to remember that half of their first 10 victories came by seven points or less. That includes a 27-22 win over these Saints, at home, back in Week 3 when New Orleans was playing w/o QB Drew Brees. I gave out the Saints in that spot as my *10* Game of the Week and if Luke McCown can almost beat the Panthers on the road, then so too can Drew Brees taking all these points at the Mercedes Benz Superdome. In fact, New Orleans is taking only two points less here at home than they were out on the road back in Week 3! The Saints are not a good team this year and honestly, the future looks fairly grim once the Brees/Payton era officially comes to an end. But this is still a game at the Superdome where the offense typically performs well. The team's scoring average actually DOUBLES at home compared to on the road. Last week's 24-6 loss at Houston actually marked the first time since 2005 that they didn't score an offensive TD in a game. The defense has only one way to go (and that's up). This will be the most points the Saints have EVER taken at home w/ Brees as the QB. 10* New Orleans |
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12-06-15 | Bengals v. Browns +10 | Top | 37-3 | Loss | -120 | 77 h 22 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (1:00 ET): I know what you're saying here. "Not the Browns!" I realize they let a lot of people down Monday night (I easily won w/ the Over), losing on a "kick six" to the Ravens and now are turning to journeyman Austin Davis at QB (man, Mike Pettine must REALLY hate Johnny Manziel). But, like the 49ers last week (covered for us at home vs. Arizona), a double digit home dog in a division matchup will always "catch my eye." Like Arizona-San Francisco, these two AFC North teams are at opposite ends of the league's spectrum. But beware that Cleveland has lost four times this year by seven points or less while Cincinnati has played five games decided within that margin. Take the points. This is what I would term a classic "buy low" opportunity on the home dog. The Browns are 0-5-1 ATS their last six games and just 3-7-1 ATS for the season. The Bengals, on the other hand, are near the top of the ATS standings (9-1-1 overall) including a perfect 5-0 ATS on the road. But I believe a little "market correction" is in store this week as rarely do we find a matchup of teams w/ such disparate records at the betting window. Davis can't be viewed as any kind of significant downgrade from Josh McCown as he's got eight starts under his belt last year w/ the Rams. One of those saw him lead an upset over the Seahawks. He came in last week and threw the game-tying 41 yd TD pass and then put his team in field goal position w/ a chance to win. Back in Wk 9, the Browns played the Bengals tough for three quarters, in Cincinnati. That was w/ Johnny Football starting. In that Week 9 victory (Thursday night game), Bengals TE Tyler Eifert caught three TD passes. It appears however, that QB Andy Dalton's favorite target is unlikely to play this week (neck injury), which is a huge break for Cleveland's defense. Coming off a blowout victory (at home) over Davis' former team, the Rams, has only served to overvalue the Bengals this week as I believe this will be the most points they've ever had to lay on the road w/ Dalton at the helm. With a much bigger game on deck (home vs. Pittsburgh next week), this shapes up as the classic lookahead for Cincinnati as well. The Browns played Denver tough here at home (game went to OT) and I expect the same from them this week. 8* Cleveland |
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12-06-15 | Falcons +2 v. Bucs | Top | 19-23 | Loss | -108 | 77 h 21 m | Show |
8* Atlanta (1:00 ET): The Falcons, who have burned me each of the last two weeks, have officially put themselves "behind the 8-ball." Not only have they now failed to cover seven straight games, the longest ATS losing skid I've seen in some time, but they've lost five of six straight up after opening the season 5-0. Some of the opponents they've lost to, whether it be New Orleans, San Francisco or Indianapolis, have been underwhelming to say the least. They also lost, at home, to Tampa Bay. They get a shot at redemption for that loss this week and I'm going to the well yet again as Atlanta must have this game as they now find themselves on "the outside looking in" when it comes to the NFC playoff picture. Take the points. The original line for this game had the Falcons favored. But because of recent results, including that first meeting between these two, the Buccaneers now find themselves in the unusual role of chalk. Sure, the Bucs have proven themselves worthy as underdogs this season, going 5-4 ATS, but as chalk the results are mixed (3-6 SU/ATS L3 seasons). They did beat Jacksonville 38-31, in a back and forth affair back in early October, but remember they were also blown out by Tennessee here at home back in Week 1. Never have they closed as a fave of even a field goal this season. Three of the last four games, Tampa Bay has failed to top 20 points. That includes last week's 25-12 loss in Indianapolis. Of interest to me is that the Falcons outgained the Bucs significantly in the earlier 23-20 loss, by over 200 yards, but were undone by a -4 turnover differential. It is imperative here that Atlanta, particularly QB Matt Ryan, takes better care of the football. Turnovers have been their downfall during this losing streak as they are -9 in TO differential the L7 games. Ryan has thrown interceptions at the most inopportune times, last week he tossed one in the end zone when the offense was driving for the go-ahead score. That was the fourth time this season that Ryan has thrown an INT in the end zone, easily the most of any QB this season. Ryan's job does get easier here with the return of RB Devonta Freeman, who leads the league w/ nine rushing TD's. Meanwhile, TB could be w/o one of its top defensive players (Gerald McCoy). The most penalized team in the league, the Bucs are 1-4 SU in games where QB Jameis Winston throws an interception, so again turnovers likely determine the outcome of this one. The Falcons are due to win that battle and they are 3-0 SU/ATS as dogs already this season. 8* Atlanta |
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12-06-15 | Jaguars v. Titans -2.5 | Top | 39-42 | Win | 100 | 77 h 21 m | Show |
8* Tennessee (1:00 ET): The Titans may not be a very good team, but the numbers indicate that they are also an unlucky bunch. While just 2-9 SU overall, they are 1-5 in one-score games and that includes another heartbreaker last week as they lost to Oakland, 24-21, here at home. The Raiders scored the game winning touchdown with only 1:21 to go, capping a 90-yard drive, after Tennessee had rallied back from an early 17-6 hole. The loss leaves the Titans 0-6 at home this year, the league's only team yet to have won a single time at home. In fact, they are just 2-18 SU their previous 20 home games, which is just beyond bad. But if there was ever a time for that to turn around, it would be this week, laying a short number against division rival Jacksonville. Lay the points. Another Tennessee heartbreaker occurred two weeks ago, on a Thursday night in Jacksonville, as they again blew a late lead. This time it was a 13-9 advantage w/ just under four minutes remaining and they didn't even end up covering as three-point dogs. First came a long punt return for the Jaguars, setting them up for the go-ahead TD. Then, on the ensuing drive, came a Titans fumble and that allowed the Jags to kick a field goal to extend the lead to what ended up being the final margin of six points. It should be noted that Tennessee outgained Jacksonville, ever so slightly, 316-308 and also had a 22-18 edge in first downs. I feel they were the better team that day and my own power rankings say they remain the better team overall this season despite an inferior record! Jacksonville actually found itself favored in consecutive games for the first time under HC Gus Bradley last week vs. San Diego. But they lost, 31-25, as their red zone issues continued. Only two teams have converted red zone appearances into touchdowns at a fewer rate than have the Jags this season and they've actually been significantly worse the past four games (26.7 percent). So missing starting WR Allen Hurns (concussion) this week does them no favors. Meanwhile a defense that is 29th in points allowed is giving up the highest TD percentage in the red zone in the entire league. Tennessee's last home win came against Jacksonville last year, by a three-point margin, and I think it's "deja vu all over again" for a Titans team due to pick up a much needed victory. 8* Tennessee |
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12-03-15 | Packers -3 v. Lions | Top | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
8* Green Bay (8:25 ET): This is a rare instance where I will side w/ the public, who once again is unafraid of "getting down" (in droves) on the Packers off a loss. Overall, Green Bay has dropped four of five and there is clearly IS a problem in the "Land of Cheese." The team just lost at home, as eight-point favorites, Thanksgiving night to Chicago. They now face a fate of being swept by the Lions, which I just cannot see happening. As you've already read, I was on Detroit when they traveled to Lambeau three weeks ago and pulled off an improbable 18-16 upset as DD dogs. Honestly, I did not believe the Lions could win that game straight up, but the points were plentiful enough for me to still side w/ them. That's not the case here, so I'll lay the short number in what is basically a "must-win" spot for the Pack. The Lions also played on Thanksgiving Day and their result was far different than that of Green Bay's. They destroyed Philadelphia, 45-14, in what was their best offensive output of 2015. While it marked the team's third consecutive win following a horrid 1-7 SU/ATS start (changed playcallers), it was also just the second time all season that the offense scored more than 20 pts in a game! A steep decline should be expected tonight on that side of the ball as they won't have the luxury of going up against an Eagles defense that appeared to have zero interest in playing football last Thursday. While Green Bay's offense has had its issues recently, the defense has been surprisingly strong all year, allowing just 19.5 points per game. They've allowed just 16 PPG the L3 wks, yet lost twice, which is downright shocking when you consider they have Aaron Rodgers. Detroit has not swept a season series from Green Bay since 1991. I know they just snapped a two-plus decade long losing skid at Lambeau Field, but overall this is still a bad team. Three of their four wins have come by five points or less. I'm calling for a Packers' turnaround here as they actually outgained the Lions back in Wk 10 (372-287). They also outgained the Bears last week (365-290). Yes, the Pack did lose LY here in Detroit, which was the game that prompted Rodgers to utter those famous five letters "R-E-L-A-X" and that what I'll say to Pack backers here as well. 8* Green Bay |
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11-29-15 | Patriots v. Broncos +3 | Top | 24-30 | Win | 100 | 99 h 25 m | Show |
8* Denver (8:30 ET): The last time the Broncos came in as a home dog for a Sunday night game, I was all over them, despite the fact their unbeaten record was being discredited at the time. We all remember what happened there as they destroyed Green Bay in a battle of 6-0 teams, 29-10, holding Aaron Rodgers and the Packers to just 140 total yards in one of the most impressive defensive efforts of this entire season. In three weeks, much has changed and I'm not just talking about the fact Denver has since suffered two losses of its own. No, the big difference is that Peyton Manning is out of the lineup and in his place is Brock Osweiler. But the situation as another unbeaten, that being 10-0 New England, comes to town remains the same. Denver is a home dog and I'll take the points. In Osweiler's first career start, Denver won 17-15 over Chicago, on the road. Under his direction, the offense rolled to 389 total yards and 21 first downs. Osweiler threw a pair of TD passes, but more importantly, he didn't turn the ball over. That was the problem w/ Manning under center (or in the shotgun/pistol for that matter) as the team was -7 in turnover margin in its two losses. Against Chicago, the defense even forced a pair of TO's after not forcing any the previous three games. As blasphemous as it may sound, Gary Kubiak's offense is likely to be run more efficiently w/ Osweiler at QB. Osweiler is also likely to have a full compliment of receivers here w/ Emmanuel Sanders slated to return. Again though, just like last week, the key for the Broncos is their defense, which is second in the league in points (18.3 per game) and first in yards (284.3 per game) allowed. This is actually a matchup of the #1 and #2 teams in PPG allowed. New England is your surprising league leader at one-tenth of a point per game better than Denver. However, they are allowing almost 60 more YPG, illustrating a more "bend but don't break" mentality. While the Broncos being w/o both Manning and DeMarcus Ware has grabbed headlines, the Patriots' supporting cast has been hit hard by injuries, leaving Tom Brady w/ a fairly "bare cupboard" to work with outside of TE Rob Gronkowski. Something else to consider is that this is just the second road game for the Pats since mid-October. They were fortunate to win their last one, 27-26 over the Giants. New England has to lose sooner or later and this appears to be the most likely spot. 8* Denver |
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11-29-15 | Steelers +4 v. Seahawks | Top | 30-39 | Loss | -110 | 95 h 20 m | Show |
10* Pittsburgh (4:25 ET): Though Seattle's home field edge is well-known, the fact is they've already lost twice here at Century Link Field this season and this is a classic case of the better team getting points. Arguably the best team in football over the L3 years, the Seahawks have taken a step backwards in 2015. In fact, they have yet to beat a single good team on their schedule. Their five wins so far have come at the expense of San Francisco (two), Dallas (no Romo), Chicago (no Cutler) and Detroit when there was a major gaffe by the officials. In other words, all they've done is beat arguably the four worst teams in the NFC. Pittsburgh arrives in the Pacific Northwest at 6-4 (despite missing Ben Roethlisberger for three games) and is off a bye. Take the points. We know that Seattle has blown a fourth quarter lead in all five of its losses, so you can certainly make the argument that they are better than their record, but at the same time their defense is not as good as its reputation. That's bad news when getting set to face a Pittsburgh offense that can certainly put plenty of points on the board. Despite almost never having their famed "triplets" (Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown, Le'Veon Bell) on the field all at the same time, the Steelers still are scoring 23.6 PPG and while that doesn't sound nor look that impressive, remember that includes multiple awful performances w/ Mike Vick at the helm. They've averaged 34 PPG in B2B wins over Oakland and Cleveland, averaging an awesome 528 yards per game. On defense, the Steelers have held four of their previous six opponents under 80 yards rushing. That's huge when getting set to face a rather one-dimensional Seattle offense that is rapidly losing its identity w/o RB Marshawn Lynch. Yes, rookie Thomas Rawls is off a strong 209 yard effort LW, but that came against the lowly 49ers. The trade that brought over TE Jimmy Graham has been an unmitigated disaster and only served to make an already suspect Seahawks offensive line all the more suspect. So far, Pittsburgh is a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS against the NFC West and a good ol' fashioned "Blitzburgh" game plan would serve them well here. Again, they are off a late season bye here. 10* Pittsburgh |
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11-29-15 | Cardinals v. 49ers +11.5 | Top | 19-13 | Win | 100 | 48 h 34 m | Show |
8* San Francisco (4:05 ET): I realize that Arizona won the first meeting handily, 47-7, back in Week 3. But this rematch has all the makings of massive letdown spot for the NFC West leaders following big wins in primetime over Seattle and Cincinnati the L2 weeks. Furthermore, take note that the line for that first matchup had Arizona favored by only seven and that was at home. Typically, division dogs of a TD or more are a pretty good value (see Chicago Thurs night) and it's pretty rare to find one getting this many at home. With three of their previous four wins coming by eight points or less, the Cardinals look like prime fade material in this spot, especially w/ a revenge game on deck next week at St. Louis. The 49ers rank 32nd, which is obviously last, in my own power ratings. So this play does require a bit of leap of faith. Things have clearly been trending down ever since the foolish decision to sever ties w/ Jim Harbaugh, but here at home the team has been more competitive. It's where all three of their victories have occurred, including upsets of Minnesota and Atlanta. Defensively, they've actually been great here at Levi's Stadium, holding opponents to just 15.2 points per game! Offensively, it's now Blaine Gabbert the rest of the way at QB as Colin Kaepernick's season is over due to injury. That sounds scary, but Gabbert probably can't play any worse that Kaepernick did in the first meeting w/ Arizona when he had two interceptions returned for touchdowns in the first five minutes. The Cardinals have not won here in San Francisco since 2008. The likelihood of them ending that streak here is pretty strong, but the margin of victory the linesmakers are calling for is a tough ask. Under HC Bruce Arians, the Cards have been "printing money" at the betting window (27-15 ATS overall), but this will be just the second time during this three-year tenure that they've been asked to lay more than a touchdown on the road! Keeping QB Carson Palmer healthy now becomes the primary concern for this team moving forward, so I don't expect them to take the same "blood is in the water" approach they've had against other lesser opponents, here. 8* San Francisco |
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11-29-15 | Vikings v. Falcons -1 | Top | 20-10 | Loss | -102 | 92 h 46 m | Show |
10* Atlanta (1:00 ET): The Falcons had absolutely no business losing last week here at home against the Colts. They led 14-0 early and it should have been more as they failed to capitalize on two Colts turnovers. Nevertheless, they still led 21-7 late in the third quarter, but that was when their own turnover bug came back to bite them. Matt Ryan threw two fourth quarter interceptions, one of them returned for the game-tying score, and Atlanta ended up losing 24-21 despite a 375-276 edge in total yards. Ryan and the Falcons really ought to be ashamed of themselves for a three-game losing skid to the Bucs, 49ers and Colts that has taken them back down to the edge of the NFC playoff race. They've actually now failed to cover six straight games, but I see that streak coming to an end here against an overrated Minnesota team. Despite recent struggles, Atlanta still finds itself tied w/ the 10th best point differential in the league. They've outscored teams by 36 points this year. For the sake of comparison, Minnesota is +27 despite being one game better in the standings. It's easy to forget now, but the Falcons were once 5-0 SU and looked to be in a neck and neck race w/ Carolina for the NFC South title. The reason for the decline is pretty obvious and that's a complete failure to take care of the football by Ryan. In their first loss of the year (at New Orleans), Atlanta was -3 in TO margin. Against Tampa Bay, they were -4. Last week brought four more turnovers. As frustrating as that can be, it's an issue that can be corrected. Ryan is actually having a really good year statistically, averaging almost 300 passing YPG while completing over 65 percent of his passes. That should be enough to overcome the loss of RB Devontae Freeman (concussion). In three of their four losses this year, the Falcons have outgained their opponents. Minnesota has not been a good road team in recent years. They are just 5-15 SU the L3 seasons and that includes three straight wins, over Detroit, Chicago and Oakland, all teams w/ losing records. The Vikings have also had some good fortune go their way this year as they are 3-1 SU in games decided by six points or fewer. I'm still not sold on the offense and I question how the team will respond after being beaten 30-13 at home by Green Bay last week. Over those same L3 seasons, they are 1-7 SU off a division loss, so history is not on their side. While the Vikings defense is noted for allowing just 18.4 PPG, the Falcons allow only 21.4 and have held six of their last seven opponents to 21 pts or less. Atlanta's last three losses have been by a combined seven points and I see them getting back on track here. 10* Atlanta |
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11-26-15 | Panthers v. Cowboys +2 | Top | 33-14 | Loss | -105 | 63 h 17 m | Show |
10* Dallas (4:30 ET): I'm going to take the bait here. Truth be told, my plan all along was to take the Cowboys in this spot. Obviously, my hope was that they'd be taking more points here at "Jerry World." But even though they're not, I'm of the opinion that "America's Team" is likely to win this one outright. With QB Tony Romo back at the helm last week, they looked even better than I expected in a 24-10 pasting of the Dolphins. Remember, the Cowboys are unbeaten w/ Romo as the starter this season (3-0 SU!), so at this point you basically have to disregard that ugly seven-game losing streak w/o him. Five of those seven losses came by a TD or less, by the way, so it's not exactly like the team was terrible without him. Only the Patriots blew them out and in no other game were they a dog of more than 4 points. Therefore, with Romo, this line shouldn't be that shocking. Take the points. Carolina is obviously still unbeaten (10-0 SU) and starting to garner attention as a legitimate Super Bowl contender. Especially after they just destroyed Washington last week, 44-16 as 7.5-pt home chalk. But, for whatever reason, the Redskins are really awful on the road. So I will resist the temptation to put too much stock into that margin of victory. Interestingly, the Panthers' two biggest margins of victory this season have come in the last two games. In the first eight wins, they prevailed by eight points or less five times. So there's been some decent fortune go their way, as you might expect. That clearly can't be said for Dallas, who is 1-5 SU in such affairs. Those things have a funny way of "evening out" though and so it's long overdue for the Cowboys to pick up a "close victory." I see it being this game. The Dallas' defense has played shockingly well of late, holding three of the last four opponents to 14 points or less. Now, with Romo back, the team can put together a strong finish to the season. They outgained Miami last week, 386-210, with a massive 22-9 edge in first downs. Romo was not only sharp late in the game when his team needed him, but also in going deep as he went 5 for 9 w/ 2 TD's on passes of 15+ yards. The key here will be not turning the ball over. Carolina has forced 13 TO's the L4 games and was +5 in turnover margin last week alone. Since '03, unbeaten teams are just 16-24-1 ATS from Week 10 on. Also, remember that HC Jason Garrett has actually been one of the best underdog coaches in the league during his tenure, at least w/ Romo. Garrett is 13-7 ATS in that role the L3 years alone and that includes a 1-4 ATS mark w/o Romo this year. I'll call for the Cowboys to hand the Panthers their first loss of the season. 10* Dallas |
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11-26-15 | Eagles v. Lions | Top | 14-45 | Loss | -110 | 59 h 17 m | Show |
8* Philadelphia (12:30 ET): This is a golden opportunity to "buy low" on the 4-6 Eagles, who are off B2B embarrassing losses, first to Miami and then last week to Tampa Bay. Both came at home. Really, this is the first time the heat has been turned up on Eagles' HC Chip Kelly, whose offense is sputtering and personnel decisions being questioned. With a road game looming next week at New England, Philly is staring down a real possibility of being 4-8 and out of playoff contention, even in the relatively weak NFC East. But fortunately, all that's being asked of them here is to win a game against the lowly Lions. Detroit's last two games have been the exact opposite of Philadelphia, in the sense that they have won outright as an underdog both times. But let us not forget just how bad things had been here before the bye week and just how many Thanksgiving dinners this team has ruined. I'm on the Eagles here. Factoring out defensive touchdowns, the Lions have scored more than 19 points in only one game all season! They are 25th in total offense and 29th in scoring (18.5 points per game). Even while taking them, I was shocked they were able to pull off the upset of Green Bay in Lambeau, an 18-16 final where the Lions were actually outgained 372-287. They had the edge in total yards on Sunday, 375-214, but still only 18 points in a win over the Raiders. I was shocked at what a good job the defense did at shutting down WR Amari Cooper. Still though, the offense scored only a single TD and the running game remains particularly pathetic. No team averages fewer yards per game on the ground (71.1 YPG). Last week marked just the second time this season that they went over 100 yds as a team. I don't see this team winning a third straight year on Thanksgiving as unlike the last two years, they're not in playoff contention. Two weeks ago, the Eagles suffered one of the more preposterous losses of the entire season as they outgained Miami 436-289 (29-15 edge in first downs), but a confluence of events transpired to go against them. However, there were few excuses as to why the team played so poorly Sunday in a humiliating 45-17 loss to Tampa Bay, the nadir of the Kelly era. Mark Sanchez started and the offense turned it over four times, but that can be corrected. Not just the turnovers, but it may be Sam Bradford under center on Turkey Day and not Sanchez. (Either way, this play stands!) But the real key is a surprisingly strong Philly defense which is allowing just 22.9 PPG despite last week's disaster. Again, the Eagles' season is hanging in the balance here; another loss and the calls for Kelly to get fired will only get louder. Detroit, despite the B2B wins, is already done for the year. 8* Philadelphia |
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11-22-15 | Bengals v. Cardinals -4 | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -110 | 108 h 52 m | Show |
8* Arizona (8:30 ET): You had to figure that following Cincinnati's shocking loss to Houston Monday night (I had the Texans!) that this line was going to start moving, which it has, but I still feel it is not nearly high enough. While this is a matchup of my #2 and #3 ranked teams in the league right now, there is a sizable gap there. Arizona, despite having lost one more game than Cincy, is definitely having the better season as they come into Sunday night w/ a +117 point differential and are an incredible +105 in yards per game compared to their opponents. The Bengals, by comparison, are "just" +83 and +37.5 in those two metrics. The linesmakers have consistently been underrating Bruce Arians as in his three-year tenure as HC, he's gone 27-14 ATS here and that doesn't even include the ridiculous record when he served as the interim for Indianapolis in Andrew Luck's rookie season. Lay the points. This will be the Cardinals' second straight week playing on Sunday Night Football and they'd obviously love a repeat of LW's result where they went into Seattle and beat their division nemesis 39-32 in a game that shouldn't have even been that close. Arizona jumped out to a shocking 19-0 advantage early, only to relinquish the lead, albeit temporarily. But still, they outgained the Seahawks 451-343 and had it not been for a defensive touchdown by Seattle, the game wouldn't have been in doubt at all. This is a team that had large edges in total yards in both of their losses this season, one of those an early start in Pittsburgh. Take away that 25-13 loss (yes, I know it happened) and the Cards are averaging 36.1 points in their other eight games, going for 39 or more in half of them! Maybe it is a "better" Andy Dalton this year for Cincinnati, but he surely didn't demonstrate that on MNF and the Bengals certainly don't possess the kind of firepower Arizona does. "Same old Bengals" will be the narrative coming into this one after the team laid an egg against the Texans, losing 10-6. That's a Houston team that has twice trailed by 40 points this year! All Cincy could manage against them was a pair of field goals and 256 total yards. They are 4-0 SU on the road, but have faced two backup QB's in those games and the other two were wins by six points or less. As I stated in my analysis last week, the Bengals have had some good fortune go their way these last two seasons as prior to the loss, they were 7-0-1 SU in one-score games. A 7-1-1 ATS record (that's after losing outright to Houston) is due to regress as well. 8* Arizona |
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11-22-15 | Chiefs v. Chargers +3 | Top | 33-3 | Loss | -106 | 99 h 56 m | Show |
8* San Diego (4:05 ET): Kansas City is off a big win for me as my *10* Game of the Week as they went into Denver and destroyed Peyton Manning and the Broncos, winning 29-13 (led 29-0!) as seven-point underdogs. But so much went right for them there (more on that in a second) and the result was so one-sided (I said in my analysis that an outright win was a strong possibility, but I even was stunned at how easy it came) that I can't help but think it has had too drastic of an impact on this week's line for a matchup w/ rested San Diego. In fact, the "look ahead" line (posted back in April) for this game had the Chargers favored by 2.5 points. Going from a touchdown underdog to a road favorite in one week is a pretty big swing for the Chiefs, even when factoring in the opponents. Take the points here. When making up a list of the league's unluckiest teams of 2015, make sure you have the Chargers written down. Philip Rivers and company are just 2-7 SU, but all but one of those losses (Minnesota in Wk 3) have come in one score games, including five straight entering their bye. It's become almost painful to watch Rivers operate behind such a decimated offensive line, yet the Lightning Bolts still rank 4th in the league in total offense (413.9 YPG!). They have actually outgained seven of nine opponents this season, one of only four teams in the league that can lay claim to such a distinction. The other three are a combined 21-6 straight up, including 9-0 Carolina and 7-2 Arizona. Clearly, San Diego is much better than its record shows. Note that during the current five-game losing skid, they have had the lead or been tied in the second half four times. I think a bye week is just what this team needed and they should be ready to go for a divisional matchup where they have double revenge (lost both meetings w/ KC last year). Had it not been for Peyton Manning, you have to wonder how last week's game would have gone for the Chiefs. The all-time great played arguably the worst game of his entire career and for Kansas City, the result was some incredible field position throughout the game. Their average starting position for a drive was Denver's 48-yard line! Talk of field position has to make the Chargers feel sick as they have had four punts downed inside their own five-yard line the L5 games alone! What that field position did for the Chiefs last week was make it very simple to score. Considering how many field goals they wound up kicking (five), Alex Smith and the offense shouldn't be commended that much as they gained just over 300 total yards and 80 of those came on one touchdown play. The better offensive team is getting points at home here and due to "break out." 8* San Diego |
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11-22-15 | Rams v. Ravens -1 | Top | 13-16 | Win | 100 | 96 h 52 m | Show |
8* Baltimore (1:00 ET): I think a pretty clear case could be laid out that the Ravens have been the "unluckiest" team in the league this year. They've already lost arguably their top play maker on both the offensive (WR Steve Smith) and defensive (DE Terrell Suggs) sides of the ball, for the rest of the season. More painful, however, has been a 2-7 SU record in one-score games. That's right, EVERY Ravens' game this season has been decided by eight points or fewer, the first time in NFL history a team has opened a season w/ nine consecutive games within that margin and Baltimore has won only two of them. Last week, probably, was the hardest one to swallow as an ill-timed facemask penalty led to an untimed down for Jacksonville, which resulted in a game winning field goal for the Jags. It was a game that Baltimore finished w/ a 397-258 edge in total yards, the fourth time in 2015 that they've outgained an opponent only to ultimately come up short on the scoreboard. I believe it's "high time" for some breaks to start going the Ravens' way. As a virtual pick 'em this week at home vs. St. Louis, they seem like a great value. For almost the entirety of John Harbaugh's tenure here, this team has been great at M&T Bank Stadium. They're just 1-3 SU (0-4 ATS) at home this year, but prior to that were a remarkable 47-11 SU. Going back to the end of LY, the team is actually 0-7 ATS its L7 home games. Again, the worm is "due" to turn here, in my opinion. At 1-7-1, Baltimore has the league's worst overall ATS record. They've clearly taken a step back in 2015, but I do not believe they have fallen to the point where they shouldn't be conceding at least a field goal to a sub-.500 opponent, at home. Some turnovers would be nice as well; since Wk 4 the defense has forced only one - last week! All that discussion was not intended to cast the Ravens in a negative light. Rather, it was to illustrate just how unlucky they have been. Fortunate for this week is they have an opponent that - I think - is conducive to a turnaround taking place. That would be struggling St. Louis, who has made a change at QB from Nick Foles to Case Keenum. As ineffective as Foles was, I've never been able to make a "case" for Mr. Keenum, pardon the lousy pun. Keenum has just 10 career starts to his name, all w/ Houston, including an eight-game losing streak in 2013. Don't expect much from him here. What the Rams will likely do is continue to lean heavily on rookie RB Todd Gurley, but he's slowed down the L2 games w/ only 136 yards on 34 carries (4.0 YPC) and the Rams' run-heavy approach actually plays right into the Ravens' only real defensive strength, that being stopping the run, where they are one of 10 teams currently allowing fewer than 100 YPG. This Rams offense has gone just 6 for 30 on third down those L2 games and was dominated LW, at home, by Chicago in a 37-13 loss. On the road, St. Louis is averaging only 15.5 points per game. 8* Baltimore |
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11-22-15 | Colts v. Falcons -5.5 | Top | 24-21 | Loss | -105 | 96 h 52 m | Show |
10* Atlanta (1:00 ET): Despite five consecutive ATS losses, I still have the Falcons rated fairly high in my power rankings as they do own the 7th best point differential in the league. I seem to be somewhat "alone" though in ranking them so highly as they are drawing very little support this week, despite being at home and facing a team w/ a backup QB that's not very good to begin with. Atlanta, like Indianapolis, is off a bye here and that should have given them ample time to regroup following B2B embarrassing outright loss to Tampa Bay and San Francisco. While the dog has won outright the previous two times (DEN over GB, ARI over SEA) we've had two rested teams face off this NFL season, I think that in retrospect the wrong team was favored both times. That's certainly not the case here. Lay the points. The Colts are simply not a very good team. Prior to upsetting Denver two weeks ago, a game I did take Indy mind you, they had not beaten a single foe outside of their very weak division. They've been outscored by roughly three touchdowns this season, are giving up roughly 400 yards per game, and now are w/o their best player, QB Andrew Luck. Veteran backup Matt Hasselbeck is once again being called into duty and while some will want to point to his 2-0 SU record as a starter this year, be aware that those wins came against Houston and Jacksonville, by a combined 10 points, one of them (JAX) in OT. Indianapolis was also outgained in both games, averaging just 324.5 YPG, or about 30 below their season average. I've said it many times before; outside of Luck, this Colts' roster is just not very impressive. Atlanta is 3-1 SU at home this season, outscoring teams by exactly eight points per game. I think it's a real "steal" to be getting them under a touchdown in this instance. The one home loss came three weeks ago against Tampa Bay, but the Falcons had a 496-290 edge in total yards in that game, only to be undone by a -4 turnover margin. Turnovers have plagued Matt Ryan and this offense during the five-game ATS slide, but I can only assume that was a real "point of emphasis" during the bye week. Ryan should have a big day throwing the ball, as the Indy defense is 5th worst in the league against the pass, plus I look for RB Devonta Freeman to get back on track here as well. Coming off their bye, Atlanta has won and covered each of the past two seasons. 10* Atlanta |
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11-22-15 | Bucs v. Eagles -5.5 | Top | 45-17 | Loss | -106 | 96 h 51 m | Show |
10* Philadelphia (1:00 ET): Despite a 4-5 SU record and being w/o their starting QB, I believe the Eagles to still be a playoff contender, at least in the wide open NFC East. They have outscored their opponents by 28 points this season, the best margin in the division and 12th in the league overall. Last week saw they suffer a truly awful result as they lost to Miami despite being +147 in total yards, not to mention nearly doubling up the Dolphins in the number of first downs. They led 16-3 after the first quarter and 16-13 when Sam Bradford got hurt & had to leave the game. From that point on, virtually nothing went right from Philadelphia's perspective, most notably Miami's GW TD pass which was deflected high in the air off defender Connor Barwin's helmet, only to somehow fall into the hands of WR Jarvis Landry. Backup Mark Sanchez had a chance to win the game for the Eagles, but threw an INT in the end zone. Sanchez is the starter this week as Philly looks to avoid losing B2B games for the first time since opening the year 0-2. They are a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS off their last three losses, albeit all of those coming w/ Bradford at the helm. But they are at home here, against a relatively weak opponent, Tampa Bay. Sanchez, as long as he isn't turning the ball over, really is not any kind of significant downgrade from Bradford. Remember that last season he came on for an injured Nick Foles and led the Eagles to a 5-4 SU record while completing 64.1 percent of his passes. Chip Kelly can also rely on his defense, something we're not used to saying, as that unit is surrendering just 16.0 PPG here at home. The Bucs, a 10-6 winner for me last week over Dallas, have not posted B2B victories under Lovie Smith. I actually had high hopes for this team coming into the year, but those pretty much went out the window when they dumped the season opener 42-14 to Tennessee, at home. Since then, things have gotten better, although it should be pointed out the offense scored only three points in 59 minutes against a subpar Dallas defense last week. They've scored just 28 points - total - the last two games, both of those against the NFC East. The defense is allowing almost 400 YPG on the road this season. Sanchez was put in a tough spot LW, getting "thrown into the fire" so to speak. A full week of preparation to be the starter makes all the difference in the world and I say lay the points w/ the Eagles. 10* Philadelphia |
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11-19-15 | Titans +3 v. Jaguars | Top | 13-19 | Loss | -118 | 68 h 38 m | Show |
10* Tennessee (8:25 ET): This is the second week in a row that the so-called "smart (early) money" has backed the dog in the Thursday night matchup. Last week, my own personal power ratings disagreed with the move and I got burnt as the Jets (despite allowing only one offensive TD & finishing w/ a 318-280 edge in total yds) lost outright to the Bills, 22-17. This week, it's a different story however, as my power ratings support the line move on Tennessee, who will be looking to erase an ugly recent history vs. division rival Jacksonville (1-6 ATS L7 meetings). Laying points w/ the Jaguars just does not seem like a good idea in my estimation; they've been asked to do so only one other time this year and the result was an outright loss to Houston. This is just the third time they've been favored during the tenure of HC Gus Bradley. Take the points. Then you have the fact that the Jags are off the phoniest of wins, a 22-20 decision in Baltimore that was only made possible due to an untimed down thanks to a Ravens' facemask penalty on the final play of regulation (game can't end on a defensive penalty). Despite that egregious gaffe by the Ravens, Jacksonville still shouldn't have even been allowed to kick the FG as there was a false start on fourth down that wasn't called, which would have otherwise ended the game. The NFL later admitted its mistake, but nevertheless the Jags won despite being outgained significantly (397-258), thanks in large part to four Baltimore turnovers and one terrible penalty. But further illustrating how laying points w/ Jacksonville would be a bad idea, all three of their wins this season have been by three points or less! Tennessee has been a "tougher out" than most people realize. They were actually only seven points back of Carolina last week, in the fourth quarter, before falling apart late. The team has lost three times this year by a FG or less. Defensively, they've been pretty solid (23.8 PPG), which is better than the Jaguars (28.3 PPG). Twice the Titans have lost a game this year in which the defense allowed 14 or fewer points. Thankfully, rookie Marcus Mariota is now back and he is the only QB in the league - besides Tom Brady - to have multiple games w/ 4 TD passes this year. He makes his offense a lot more potent and I think the Titans have a great shot at taking this game outright. Again, take the points though. 10* Tennessee |
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11-16-15 | Texans +11 v. Bengals | Top | 10-6 | Win | 100 | 20 h 55 m | Show |
8* Houston (8:25 ET): This play is a bit unique, because unlike the other two unbeatens I played against Sunday (Panthers, Patriots), I do not believe there's much of a likelihood that Cincinnati will lose this game. But, nevertheless, the number is too high. The Texans have had a LONG time to prepare here as they're coming off a bye. The Bengals, 7-0-1 ATS for the season, are certainly due to "slip up" and not cover a game. Like those other two aforementioned unbeatens, Cincy has certainly had its fair share of good fortune as half of their wins have come by six points or fewer. That's a continuation of last season where they went 3-0-1 in such games. Another team w/ a similar record in close games the L2 yrs (Green Bay) slipped up as a DD favorite yday (and I went against them!). Deja vu here? Take the points. On the flip side, Houston has lost three games this year by exactly one touchdown. For them, they've had the exact opposite luck of Cincinnati in one-score games, going an unthinkable 4-16 straight up since the start of the 2013 season. This is a team that clearly needs to draft or sign a new QB for the future, but at least Brian Hoyer represents an upgrade over the released Ryan Mallett, who was all potential and no performance. The Texans have won two of three, albeit against Jacksonville and Tenessee, with Hoyer back at the helm. Another thing worth noting is that Houston has actually been favored in three of its games this season. Never have they gotten more than a TD from the linesmakers as they are here. Believe it or not, but Houston is actually outgaining its opponents for the season, by 18.4 yards per game. Cincinnati, despite having a much better SU record, is outgaining foes by 42 YPG, which isn't a whole heck of a lot more. Something that will keep the Texans motivated here & down the stretch is that they are still very much alive in the odious AFC South as a win here would actually move them into a first place tie w/ Indianapolis, who is going to be w/o Andrew Luck for the next several games. I'm leaning on the fact that DD dogs have been historically profitable. 8* Houston |
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11-15-15 | Patriots v. Giants +8.5 | Top | 27-26 | Win | 100 | 116 h 9 m | Show |
8* NY Giants (4:25 ET): At first, I was a little leery of the public buying into the whole "can the Giants do it AGAIN to the Patriots?" storyline, but it is clear that they have not and thus once again the value is on the underdog G-Men in matchup with New England. Famously, Tom Coughlin's team has pulled the upset twice on Bill Belichick in Super Bowls, but he is also 2-0 SU/ATS against "The Hoodie" in the regular season since '07 as well. In fact, the Giants are the ONLY team in the league that the Patriots haven't beaten over the L10 seasons! I'm not sure if that streak stays in tact after Sunday, but I do like the Giants (who have led in every game this season) to at least cover the generous spread here at home. Take the points. Yes, the Giants have had the lead at one point in every game this season. Granted, they have been outgained in all but one game (a 30-27 win over lowly San Francisco where Eli Manning threw for 400+ yards), sometimes severely so. But, with the exception of an ugly Monday Night performance against the Eagles, they've been competitive in every game, never losing by more than four points. That bodes well for them here, even against the consensus best team in the league. Coughlin is often at his best in the underdog role and this season has been no different w/ a 2-1-1 ATS mark, including an outright win at Buffalo. It's highly unusual to still have three unbeaten teams this late in the NFL season, but history suggests that number is about to start dwindling. That's because since '03, unbeaten teams are just 14-22 ATS from Week 10 on in the regular season. You'll recall that during their unbeaten regular season of '07, the oddsmakers eventually "caught up" to the Patriots. I suppose that, nor how the '07 season ultimately ended for the Pats, really matters here. But I'll continue to assert that this year's team is nowhere near as good as the '07 version. They have won half of their games by eight points or less. Injuries have become a major concern w/ RB Dion Lewis now done for the season, not to mention the offensive line is in shambles. The Giants defense is a concern as is the fact that is their 10th game in a row w/o a bye, but their opportunistic nature (league-high 21 forced turnovers) will keep them in it. 8* NY Giants |
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11-15-15 | Chiefs +7 v. Broncos | Top | 29-13 | Win | 100 | 116 h 8 m | Show |
10* Kansas City (4:05 ET): This is a "re-do" of sorts for me after I lost a big play on the Chiefs back in Week 2 against the Broncos. Hosting Denver on a Thursday night (as 3-point favorites), it appeared as if KC would be able to overcome four turnovers and finally beat their AFC West rivals as they had a 24-17 lead late in the fourth quarter. However, it was not to be. A late TD drive engineered by Peyton Manning tied the game and then a fifth turnover, a Jamaal Charles fumble that was returned by the Denver defense for a TD, proved to be the difference maker in the cruelest of losses for the Chiefs. Considering where the line was at for that first meeting and how the so-called "smart money" has spoken for the rematch, I'm on Andy Reid's team again as they are coming off a bye and due to end an ugly seven-game losing streak to Manning and the Broncos. Take the points. Before the bye, KC turned in - by far- its most complete effort of the season w/ a 45-10 beatdown of Detroit over in London. Granted, the Lions offered little in the way of resistance, but it was still nice to see the Chiefs' ground game rush for 4 TD's. Charles may be out for the season, but the Cheifs have not struggled to run the ball w/o him as Charcandrick West has emerged w/ 200+ yards the L2 games, both wins. The Chiefs dug themselves an early season hole, but by no means are out of contention in a not-very deep AFC field. Three of their losses this season, including Denver, have been by seven points or less. They've turned the ball over just three times since the Wk 2 loss and have won the TO battle each of the L4 games. Meanwhile, Denver has turned the ball over a total of 12 times its L6 contests. The Broncos' defense has carried the team this year in lieu of Manning's decline, but will be w/o two key contributors this week - DeMarcus Ware & Aqib Talib - both massive losses. I expect it will be the Chiefs defense that is the difference this time around. Not only did they sack Manning three times in the first meeting, but they held the Broncos to just 61 yards rushing. Sadly, that lack of production from the ground game is nothing new for Denver fans as their team ranks 28th in the league in rushing (88.1 YPG) after being held to a sorry 35 yds in LW's outright loss to the Colts. Though they started the season 7-0 & their stock was at an all-time high after crushing Green Bay two weeks ago, five of the Broncos' victories this season have come in one-score games. Losing to the Colts (who I was on) last week was "reality check" that this team had actually not played all that well its first six games of the season. Depleted somewhat on the defensive side of the ball, I wouldn't be surprised if there was a carryover from last week's "head-scratcher." 10* Kansas City |
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11-15-15 | Lions +11.5 v. Packers | Top | 18-16 | Win | 100 | 113 h 45 m | Show |
8* Detroit (1:00 ET): For a second straight week, it appears as if the public is set to "load up" on the Packers coming off a loss. That strategy certainly didn't work too well last week as GB lost as a three-point favorite at Carolina, 37-29. Even that final is a bit misleading as the Pack trailed by as many as 23 early in the fourth quarter before a late comeback ultimately came up short. Before scoring two late TD's, Green Bay had been outscored by Denver & Carolina by a combined 66-24 over seven-plus quarters. Those might be two of the best teams in the league, record-wise, but still it's not a "good look." Back at home w/ lowly Detroit coming to town, the expectation here is for the Packers to roll, but at the very worse I expect the "back door" to be open for a Lions team coming off its bye. Take the points. Detroit has the worst ATS record in the league, currently at 1-7 ATS. That one cover came in the Monday night debacle vs. Seattle, a game they very well could have won, but also failed to score an offensive touchdown. There's been plenty of upheavel in the Motor City the last couple weeks w/ firings in the front office and a change of offensive coordinators. HC Jim Caldwell may very well be the next one to go, even though he's only a year removed from taking this team to playoffs. Even though they got hammered in London, I don't think the Lions are necessarily as bad as their record indicates. It's certainly not looking good and they likely won't win here, but with an extra week to prepare, I am expecting a competitive game from them. They are 2-0 ATS off the bye the L2 seasons and this will be the most points they've taken in any game the L3 seasons. You'll probably hear a lot about how the Packers have beaten the Lions an amazing 24 straight times here at Lambeau. But all that tidbit has done here is drive the line up. Underdogs of this size are normally a really solid value in division contests and you'd have to go all the way back to 2010 to find the last time Detroit was catching double digits here. Sure enough, they covered the 14.5 pt spot easily there, losing by only two. Injuries have become a concern for the Packers and they've failed to cash two of the last three times they've been listed as DD chalk. I wouldn't be surprised if they get caught "peaking ahead" to a first place showdown at Minnesota next week either. 8* Detroit |
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11-15-15 | Saints v. Redskins +1.5 | Top | 14-47 | Win | 100 | 113 h 45 m | Show |
10* Washington (1:00 ET): Taking advantage of the fact that the public was fawning all over them scoring 52 points the week prior, I stepped out against the Saints (who were at home) last week and was richly rewarded w/ a 34-28 outright win by underdog Tennessee. There's no sugarcoating this, so I'll just come out and say it. Rob Ryan's defense absolutely stinks. They gave up nearly 500 yards to the punchless Titans last week and now rank 31st in the league in yards allowed per game. Only the Giants team that they torched two weeks ago allows more. Still, that hasn't stopped the public from "getting down" yet again on New Orleans as a small road favorite (line hovering around a Pick 'em all week), which is a curious decision considering this game is outdoors, a setting where the Saints often struggle. Now, I also was on Washington last week. That play didn't go nearly as well. Needless to say, the Redskins' "A-game" may not even be enough to beat the Patriots, but what Jay Gruden's team brought to Foxboro last Sunday was far less than that as simple concepts like "catching the ball" and "tackling" seemed to be strangely foreign to a team coming off its bye week. But one bad loss isn't nearly enough to back me off the 'Skins in this one, even though they've now gone three straight games w/o a cover. They've played one top defense (Jets) and one top offense (Patriots) during that period, both on the road, but here at home the results have been much better. They've won three straight here in the Nation's Captal and are allowing just 19.2 points per game here. New Orleans is just 9-13 SU/ATS on the road since the start of the 2013 season. Kirk Cousins may not be a viable long-term starter in D.C., but he should have a big game here against the porous Saints' defense. Not only does New Orleans give up the second most yards per game in the league; they give up the most "big plays" ie passes of 40+ yds. They've allowed 11 such completions, six of them for touchdowns! If that's not bad enough, they allow 6.47 yards per game and opposing QB's are on a pace for the highest passer rating the league has seen in over 50 years! Six teams have gained at least 400 total yds on the Saints. Drew Brees outdoors is not the same as Drew Brees indoors and won't be able to account for his own team's defensive ineptitude. Cousins and the Redskins offense is already averaging a solid 373 YPG at home this season. 10* Washington |
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11-15-15 | Panthers v. Titans +5 | Top | 27-10 | Loss | -110 | 113 h 44 m | Show |
8* Tennessee (1:00 ET): The Titans came through for me last week even better than expected as they upset the heavily favored Saints, in New Orleans, 34-28 in overtime. While some will look at the now 2-6 record and dismiss their chances of posting B2B victories, I think that's a mistake. This team has played better than the record shows as its actually outgained its opponents on a per game basis. They've also suffered three losses by a combined six points here at home, where they've yet to win this year & somehow have gone an abysmal 4-20 SU and 4-16-4 (four pushes?) the L3 seasons. That's "due" to correct itself. Carolina, for being unbeaten, has been quite fortunate as all but three of its victories have been one-possession games. I'm not ruling out the outright upset here. Take the points. Twice this season Tennessee has lost at home with the defense allowing 14 or fewer points. That's hard to do. But w/ rookie QB Marcus Mariota back in the fold, the offense is a whole lot better. Last week saw them score 33+ points for the third time this season w/ Mariota under center. Sure, the New Orleans defense played a role in that, but it was still a season-high 483 total yards for Mariota and company. What if I told you that the Carolina defense was actually giving up more yards per game than Tennessee? The Titans held the Falcons to just 10 points here in Nashville three weeks ago and likely would have won that game if Mariota had played instead of Zach Mettenberger. In Miami, we saw a temporary surge after a coaching change and I anticipate we'll see the same here w/ Mike Mularkey in Tennessee. Carolina has largely flown under the radar this season as they already have more wins (8) than they did all of last season when they actually won what was a horrible division. But after beating Green Bay last week, the spotlight is officially on them and it now seems as if the public is as well. Something to keep in mind is that while they may be tied for the league's best record, the Panthers' average margin of victory ranks 21st! They are just +1 in points scored vs. allowed in the 4Q this season and have blown or almost blown a pair of 20+ point leads the last two weeks. That should give us reason to believe that at the very worst, the backdoor will be open here. Since 2003, unbeaten teams are a money-burning 14-22 ATS from Week 10 on in the regular season. 8* Tennessee |
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11-15-15 | Cowboys v. Bucs -1 | Top | 6-10 | Win | 100 | 113 h 44 m | Show |
8* Tampa Bay (1:00 ET): I get that the Bucs fell out of the public's favor long ago, but the more popular Cowboys certainly don't seem to worthy of this kind of respect either given that they've yet to win a single time since Tony Romo went down w/ a collarbone injury all the way back in Week 2. Yes, they've been close a number of times, twice suffering the ignominy of not only losing but failing to cover as dogs in overtime, but Matt Cassel is still a terrible quarterback and this team is in turmoil. This offense has not scored more than 20 points in B2B games since losing Romo and with four of their next five games coming on the road, the season is all but over. At some point, it's going to be too difficult for them to "get back off the mat" and I think that time is now. Homefield advantage is still supposed to matter in the NFL, but don't tell that to the Bucs. They've won just one home game since the start of last season and that came earlier this season at the expense of Jacksonville. However, isn't the worm "due to turn?" I think that this week is the perfect "tipping point" as perhaps you recall that Dallas won all eight of its regular season road games a year ago, something that pointed towards clear regression this season, a fate further cemented by the Romo injury, something I simply cannot mention enough. For Tampa Bay, they've actually been better than their record shows as there have been three instances in the last five games where they've outgained an opponent, only to come up short on the scoreboard. That's tough. Ironically, they were actually outgained in an impressive win at Atlanta two weeks ago. Last week's 32-18 loss to the Giants is misleading in the sense that it was a 23-18 game in the final minute before a NY field goal was followed up by a fumble return for a touchdown. It's pretty rare to find a team riding a six-game losing streak, down to its third quarterback, as a virtual pick em on the road. But that's Dallas for you. Dez Bryant's most recent blowup does this team no favors, nor does still having Cassel at the helm. I was happy to see him play relatively well last Sunday night vs. Philadelphia (had the Over), but wasn't it just two weeks ago that he didn't even complete a pass longer than 10 yards and finished w/ less than 100 yds for the game? (Answer: It was!). If this season hadn't already been miserable enough for the Cowboys, now word comes down that they will be w/o leading tackler Sean Lee (concussion) for this game. I've seen some other rating systems that say Dallas should still be favored here, but my own does not. 8* Tampa Bay |
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11-12-15 | Bills v. Jets -2.5 | Top | 22-17 | Loss | -105 | 48 h 10 m | Show |
8* NY Jets (8:25 ET): Betting for this game has come in fairly evenly and I suppose it's easy to understand why. The narrative here will be that these are two evenly matched division rivals hoping to make the playoffs. At the start of the season, I viewed these teams pretty similarly myself. However, after eight games, that's changed and my own power rankings indicate that the Jets should probably be favored by closer to a touchdown than a field goal. Therefore, with the actual number here dipping below the key number, all the value is on the home team in my opinion. They also have the added motivation of double revenge (lost both meetings LY) and are just 1-4 SU/ATS L5 vs. the Bills. Lay the points. Perhaps it was the impressive nature of Buffalo's 33-17 win over Miami last week that has some leaning towards them here. But let us not forget that they were coming off a bye and playing at home. Here, it's a short week and they're on the road. This is just the third "true" road game of the season for the Bills and the first of three in a row that will likely determine their season's fate. As a road dog of three points or less, they are just 1-4 SU/ATS the L3 seasons and they barely beat Tennessee (outgained 276-219) earlier this year. Let us also not forget that this Bills team lost in London to the Jaguars. A major difference between this week and last is that Buffalo is highly unlikely to be as effective running the ball here as they were against the Dolphins. The Jets' defense, 4th overall in yards per game allowed, is #1 against the run by a wide margin as it allows just 80.6 YPG. The Jets do have injury concerns and were a little fortunate to squeak by Jacksonville last week as the Jags turned it over four times in a 28-23 final. But, remember that this Jets team outgained each of its first six opponents this year. They might be coming off B2B ATS losses, but in one of the games (Oakland) they were actually favored on the road and then last week was the most points they'd been asked to lay in a game all season. At the quarterback position, I'll take Ryan Fitzpatrick (and his beard) over Tyrod Taylor. I didn't want to spend much time discussing Rex Ryan (who's act is growing tired) in this space, but the Jets' players should obviously be fired up to face their former coach. The Bills have not won B2B games all season and are 0-3 ATS off a win. 8* NY Jets |
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11-09-15 | Bears v. Chargers -4.5 | Top | 22-19 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 11 m | Show |
10* San Diego (8:25 ET): Truth be told, this is a pretty terrible Monday night matchup of two disappointing (and banged up) teams. San Diego is 2-6, but honestly is better than that record even though I went against them last week in an early start at Baltimore. For me, the ATS result there ended up being a push as the Chargers lost by a field goal, the fifth time this season they've lost by eight or fewer points. They've lost four in a row, all within that margin, despite actually having the edge in total yards in all four of those games! Their two wins this year may have come by only a combined eight points over Detroit & Cleveland, but tonight's opponent is in the same tier (that's to say, the bottom of the league) & West Coast teams typically have the edge in primetime games. Therefore, I'll lay the points here. Chicago is 2-5 and similar to San Diego they really haven't been as bad as their record indicates. Outside of six predictably terrible quarters from backup QB Jimmy Clausen, they've generally been competitive. They are coming off B2B division losses, each by a field goal. Interestingly, the Bears have yet to be favored in a single game this season, so that speaks volumes about how the linesmakers view them. They enter this game w/o the services of the league's leading rusher Matt Forte, plus starting receiver Eddie Royal. I'm not sure how they account for that lost production. On defense, this team is allowing 28.9 points per game and has only 12 sacks, 8.5 of those coming from two players. Despite now being w/o WR Keenan Allen (for the rest of the season), I still think Chargers QB Philip Rivers can have a big day here. Yes, he's operating behind a pretty awful offensive line. But I already mentioned that the Bears' pass rush simply is not "getting home" this season and Rivers comes in leading the league in passing yardage. The result is that this actually the league's top overall offense in terms of yards per game. The only "issue" is that they average just 17.7 yards per point, which means they're due to start putting more points on the board. They face a defense here that will accommodate. I also firmly believe in the so-called "Circadian advantage" West Coast teams have in primetime (look it up!), even though the Bolts did lose earlier this year at home on MNF vs. Pittsburgh (should have won!). 10* San Diego |
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11-08-15 | Broncos v. Colts +5.5 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 48 h 52 m | Show |
10* Indianapolis (4:25 ET): What a difference a week makes for Denver as they go from three-point dog (beat Green Bay outright!) to a six-point road favorite! Of course, the change in opponent plays a significant role in that and there's no denying that the Colts have been one of the league's bigger disappointments thus far. But I think the swing in public perception as it pertains to the Broncos is significant here. Few gave them a chance last Sunday night at home against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers (I did, taking them plus the points!). But after a surprisingly dominant 29-10 victory that kept their record perfect on the season, everyone is expecting Peyton Manning and company to roll this week. But remember, Andrew Luck is perfect in his career as a home dog (7-0 ATS) winning six of those games OUTRIGHT! That includes a win two years ago against Manning & the Broncos. Take the points. I was on the Colts the last time they were a home dog. It was three weeks ago against New England when everyone expected the Patriots to roll (like they do w/ Denver here) and instead Indy kept it close. I took the Colts as a dog Monday night as well, at Carolina, and they covered that game as well despite losing in overtime. It has been a shocking tumble down the power rankings for this team, but I find it hard to believe they are THIS bad. Overall, they are 3-0 ATS as dogs (0-5 ATS as favorites) and each of their last six games have been decided by a TD or less. Despite being in a terrible division, this is a critical game for the Colts, who are now tied for first place in the AFC South w/ Houston. They just fired offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, so the pressure is on here. This is the longest losing streak of Luck's career. There is no denying that the Broncos looked great last week, much better in fact than I thought they'd look. But, at the same time, there could be a letdown and you also cannot discount the team's offensive struggles the first six weeks of the year. Last week's 27 points (defense provided a late safety) was a season-high. Their previous high, not accounting for defensive scores, was 24 points. They've won two games w/o scoring an offensive touchdown. Surprisingly, they are 5-1-1 ATS this year, but it's not so surprising when you consider they have yet to be favored by more than seven points in any game. Twice, they've been the dog (won outright both times). I look for a Colts team that everyone is writing off to do what Denver did last week in a similar spot and that is turn in their best performance of the year. 10* Indianapolis |
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11-08-15 | Raiders v. Steelers -4 | Top | 35-38 | Loss | -105 | 102 h 33 m | Show |
10* Pittsburgh (1:00 ET): Often times, I think of teams as "stocks" that depending on the current marketplace dictate either a "buy or sell" mentality. Sticking w/ that analogy here, the Raiders clearly appear to be in "sell high" mode currently. The Silver and Black, off B2B impressive victories over the Chargers & Jets, haven't had a winning record this late in the season going all the way back to 2011 (started 0-10 last year!). This isn't the first time I've sought to play against Oakland on the road this year, off a win. Back in Week 4, after a 27-20 win over Cleveland, they were actually favored in Chicago and promptly lost outright to the then-winless Bears, 22-20. The belief that this is now a "playoff contender" has led to a vast overadjustment in the line (opened -7 & was even higher in the preseason). Lay the number. The Steelers themselves were heavily bet last week, but let their backers down despite the return of Ben Roethlisberger to the lineup. They did lead the unbeaten Bengals, here at home, 10-9 entering the fourth quarter. But, overall, Big Ben did not play well in his first game back. But that was to be expected (I didn't play the game) given the long layoff. With one game under his belt, I expect Roethlisberger to be a lot better this week, especially facing what still ranks as the league's 26th ranked defense overall (in terms of yards allowed per game) and 31st against the pass (302.1 YPG). Yes, even w/o Le'veon Bell, the Steelers should be just fine here. Remember that in two games w/o him, they scored 64 points. The last five times the Steelers have been at home, off a home loss the week previous, they are 5-0 SU/ATS, winning every time by double digits. You also have to remember just how bad Oakland has been on the road the last couple of years. They're just 4-23 SU away the L4 seasons and that includes a heinous 1-7 SU/ATS mark the L8 times they have been off a win. Granted, this is an improved team and the lone win/cover came earlier this year against the Browns, but I just think we need to "pump the brakes" a bit w/ this bunch as this is also the dreaded early start time for a West Coast team bit. The Raiders' lack of success in 1 PM ET kickoffs is well-known. Again, that Browns' victory in Wk 3, is their ONLY win in the Eastern Time Zone the last four seasons. This is a huge game for the Steelers' playoff prospects and I believe they will respond accordingly. 10* Pittsburgh |
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11-08-15 | Titans +8.5 v. Saints | Top | 34-28 | Win | 100 | 45 h 38 m | Show |
8* Tennessee (1:00 ET): The Titans really let me down last week. They found themselves taking on an equally downtrodden Houston team (division foe) that was coming off a humiliating loss the week prior to Miami (outgained 399-3 in the first half!), yet lost anyway 20-6 to drop to 1-6 SU on the year. I think that much of the blame for last Sunday's loss can be pinned on the presence of backup Zach Mettenberger being in the lineup, though ownership chose to blame Ken Whisenhunt, who is now out as head coach, leaving Mike Mularkey to "man the battle station" the rest of the way in 2015. We saw aforementioned Miami make a coaching change earlier this year and the short-term results were very positive (B2B wins), which is usually the case when these sort of things happen. I'm taking the points here. Mularkey has been a head coach before (Buffalo) and while that didn't necessarily go very well, at least he's got experience in the role. More importantly though, he's got rookie Marcus Mariota back in the lineup here to face New Orleans. In the two games w/o Mariota in the lineup, Tennessee scored just 13 total points, which is an embarrassment. One player can't correct everything, but note there have been two games w/ Mariota under center that the Titans have scored 33 and 42 points and this week they'll be facing an awful Saints defense that just gave up 49 points last week. Five times this season New Orleans has given up 300+ yards passing and they rank 29th in pass defense overall. Overall, the Saints are giving up 406.3 yards per game, second most in the entire league. Of course, facing Drew Brees and the New Orleans offense, you're going to have to play some defense. Fortunately, I think the Titans will be up to the task. Quietly, this team has given up the fifth fewest yards per game in the league this year and they are stingy in the red zone. Two weeks ago, they held Atlanta (granted, outdoors) to only 10 points in a near-upset. That was one of three games this season that Tennessee has lost by three points or less and one of four that they've held the opponent to 20 points or fewer. The Saints, once 1-4 SU and going nowhere, have faced two terrible defenses the L2 weeks and have won only one time this year by more than six points. I'm not ready to buy any kind of renaissance going on in the "Big Easy." 8* Tennessee |
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11-08-15 | Redskins +14.5 v. Patriots | Top | 10-27 | Loss | -115 | 45 h 37 m | Show |
8* Washington (1:00 ET): Now, I don't think that the Redskins are going to win this game (though I suppose there's always a chance!). But this is a pretty generous number for a team that's played better than most people realize and coming off a bye. Yes, the undefeated Patriots have had plenty of time to prepare here as well (played Thursday last week). But as I've made the case previously, this team is not in the same stratosphere as the '07 group that ran the table all the way to the Super Bowl. New England was a nice winner for me their last time out, 36-7, but that was at the expense of a Dolphins side I believed to be clearly overvalued after two relatively meaningless wins. In past analysis (where I've played AGAINST the Pats), I've been quick to point out that the team has several "close" wins (four by 8 pts or less). Take the points. Washington may have lost to Miami back in Wk 1 (did outgain the 'Fins 349-256 though!), but this has been a competitive bunch throughout 2015. In fact, their largest margin of defeat has been by 14 points. Before the bye, we saw them rally from a 24-point deficit to beat Tampa Bay at home. While the fact they fell behind by that many points can certainly be construed as a negative, a case can be made that QB Kirk Cousins had arguably his finest day as a pro, completing 33 of 40 passes for 317 yards and three touchdowns. Cousins' job here will be helped by the return of WR DeSean Jackson, who has not been on the field since the opener. Last year w/ him in the lineup, the 'Skins offense averaged nearly two more full yards per play! Remember that the secondary is supposed to be the one weak spot of this Patriots team. The double digit dog (Cleveland) may have failed to cash Thursday, but historically teams taking 10 or more have been profitable, going 54 percent against the spread since 2003. Taking it a step further, New England is only 3-8 ATS the L11 times they have been asked to lay 14 or more points (Note: line vs. Jacksonville closed at -13.5). While the Patriots ended up rolling in that game vs. the Jags (won 51-17), I'm not sure that it's warranted giving Washington more points than Jacksonville was getting. Predictably, the flow of public money here is on the favorite. One serious concern for the Pats here is the health of their offensive line. LT Nate Solder is out for the season w/ a biceps tear. That's a big loss. Look for Washington to keep this one closer than expected. 8* Washington |
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11-05-15 | Browns +11 v. Bengals | Top | 10-31 | Loss | -105 | 37 h 59 m | Show |
10* Cleveland (8:25 ET): It does appear as if Johnny Manziel will be the starter here for the Cleveland (play still stands regardless) and you'll notice that decision has had little to no influence on this line whatsoever. That's because, honestly, despite some suprisingly big games from starter Josh McCown, there's really little difference between he and Johnny Football. The 2-6 Browns aren't going anywhere this year and the only reason McCown continues to be the starter is that HC Mike Pettine is fighting to keep his job. By far, Pettine's most impressive win in his two seasons here came on a Thursday night last year, against Cincinnati, where the Browns pulled out a shocking 24-3 upset on the road. It won't be the same result this time around, but the points are generous. I'm on the underdog. When the Browns pulled off that upset last year, they actually found themselves tied for first place in the AFC North! To say a lot's changed since that time would be a mild understatement. Cleveland would win just one game the rest of the way in 2014 & is now 3-12 SU their L15 games. Meanwhile, Cincinnati has gone 12-2 SU its L14 regular season games (7-0 this year) and has established itself as one of the league's best teams. But upon closer inspection, things may not be so drastically different. Cleveland has lost a number of close games, both this year and last, while Cincy is a remarkably fortunate 7-0-1 SU in games decided by seven points or less since the start of last season. Four of their seven wins this year have been by a TD or less. So, let's pump the breaks - slightly - on all this "whole new Bengals" talk. Obviously, Manziel has looked pretty terrible to this point in his NFL career. But making an impromptu start on a short week is actually a slight advantage when you consider the opponent has far less time to prepare. For what it's worth, the Browns did win the only game Manziel has started this year, 28-14 over Tennessee, back in Week 2. Although the run game has struggled, the offensive line is still strong in terms of personnel and will be going up against a Bengals defense that yields 5.0 yards per carry, tied for the most in the league. I've seen Cincinnati have to rally too many times this season to want to lay double digits w/ them, something they have not been asked to do even once in the last three seasons. 10* Cleveland |
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11-02-15 | Colts +7 v. Panthers | Top | 26-29 | Win | 100 | 21 h 42 m | Show |
10* Indianapolis (8:30 ET): If not for being in a hideous division (AFC South), the Colts would be in real trouble. While they're 3-0 SU (1-2 ATS) vs. AFC South opposition, Indy has yet to win a single game outside of the division, going 0-4 SU/1-3 ATS. The way things are going, it is looking increasingly likely that we could have yet another .500 or worse division winner this year. Of course, that's a position that Carolina is all too familiar with, having won the NFC South w/ a 7-8-1 record last season. Shockingly, the 6-0 Panthers can match that win total w/ another win tonight, but because of the respective records here, they are caught laying what I feel is too many points in this Monday night matchup. Take the points. A flawed roster and multiple injuries to QB Andrew Luck are literally and figuratively hurting the Colts right now. After "backdooring" the Patriots two weeks ago (ATS win for me!), it appeared they might have turned a slight corner, but shockingly they were shut out in the 1H for the third time this season LW at home by New Orleans. Some "garbage time" effort by Luck led to a misleading final, but the fact remains this is the only team in the league NOT to have owned the edge in total yards in a single game this year. However, all the disappointing efforts have resulted to an inflated line here. Consider that the preseason line for this matchup had the Colts as a one-point FAVORITE. That's quite the swing in perception. Indy has been a dog only twice this season, but they've covered both times (only two ATS wins). Meanwhile, this will be just the second time that Carolina has been asked to lay more than a field goal this season. The only other instance was against New Orleans w/o Drew Brees and they failed to cover that game, almost losing outright. They've been playing well, but I don't think they're necessarily built to cover spreads such as this. The offense ranks just 22nd in the league in yards per game (344.2) and defensively I feel Luck can have success against this secondary. QB Cam Newton has curiously drawn some MVP consideration despite actually posting a season-low in completion percentage (55.8 percent). Provided that the Colts defense can step up and limit the Panthers' run game, they should have no problem staying in this one. Andrew Luck has NEVER lost three straight games in his career. 10* Indianapolis |
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11-01-15 | Packers v. Broncos +3.5 | Top | 10-29 | Win | 100 | 46 h 19 m | Show |
8* Denver (8:30 ET): How rare is it to find Peyton Manning as a home dog? It's happened only once during his tenure w/ the Broncos, all the way back in 2012, just his second home game w/ the team. It was an even rarer occurrence during his time with the Colts and what makes tonight's situation all the more eye-popping is that Denver is not only unbeaten (6-0), but off a bye as well. They are 19-2 SU at home the L3 years and have the #1 ranked defense in the league. That all only serves to illustrate just how much respect the Packers have in the marketplace currently, and while I wasn't surprised at all to see GB bet to the role of favoritism here, it's an overreaction based on the perception that the Packers are the "better" unbeaten team. Take the points. Green Bay, like Denver, is an outstanding home team. We're all aware of Aaron Rodgers' eye-popping numbers at Lambeau Field, but on the road this team "can be had." Over the last three seasons, they are just 10-9 SU away from home, 9-9-1 against the spread. So far, the Packers have been asked to play only two road games in 2015 and those games came at Chicago and San Francisco, two of the worst teams in the league. They struggled a bit as well both times. In Wk 1 vs. the Bears, the defense allowed what was a season-high (until the last game) 402 total yards. In San Francisco, they scored just 17 points. Also, remember that while they beat San Diego two weeks ago, the Packers' defense (which is #1 in the league in scoring) gave up nearly 500 yards passing. Peyton Manning may not be what he once was, but he should be able to take advantage. Green Bay's defense may allow the fewest points per game in the league, but the Broncos are allowing the fewest yards (281 per game) and I have them rated as the better unit overall. For the record, they are also just behind the Packers in terms of PPG allowed (16.8 to 17.0). Consider that Denver's defensive numbers would be even better and they'd lead the league in points allowed if not for three pick six's from Manning. Manning may not be in Aaron Rodgers' class any longer, but overall this is a far more even matchup than how it's being perceived. 8* Denver |
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11-01-15 | Giants +3.5 v. Saints | Top | 49-52 | Win | 100 | 102 h 14 m | Show |
8* NY Giants (1:00 ET): It seems like the better team is getting points in this one, no? Granted, I wouldn't expect the Giants to be favored here at the Mercedes Benz Superdome, but New Orleans' homefield advantage really is no longer what it once was. In fact, they were on an 0-7 ATS run here at the Superdome at one point before squeaking by a Cowboys team that was w/o Tony Romo, in overtime. Then, in another prime time affair, they benefited from a favorable turnover margin (+3) vs. Atlanta that led to a final score (31-21) that really wasn't indicative of how the game was played (Falcons had edge in total yards). The Colts just aren't very good right now, so I don't read much into last week's win either. Clearly, I am not buying any kind of Saints' renaissance here. Take the points. The Giants are a bit of a tough team to get a beat on. They have had the lead in every game, yet only outgained one opponent (San Francisco) all year. But I liked them at the start of the season to win the division (still do!) and this is the kind of game they need to win to justify that pick. Last week wasn't the prettiest performance, but the G-Men scored touchdowns on offense, defense and special teams en route to a 27-20 win over the Cowboys. Though the total yardage battle clearly hasn't always gone their way, that somewhat undersells how the Giants have actually performed. They had double digit leads in the 4th quarter vs. both Dallas (in Wk 1) and Atlanta. Washington rolled up some garbage yards against them. They've gone 2-1 ATS as dogs so far, all those games coming on the road, one of them an outright win at Buffalo. Eli Manning (who for some reason tends to play better on the road) is clearly more comfortable in his second year in Ben McAdoo's offense while on defense, the front seven has been better than expected this year. Critics of the Giants will point toward the team's positive turnover ratio. But the same criticism can be levied on the Saints, who are +5 in that department the L2 games. This will be just the third time New Orleans has been a favorite this season; they were fortunate to cover (because of OT) vs. Dallas and lost outright here to Tampa Bay. On defense, this team is not healthy at all. That's a defense that entered last week ranked dead last in yards allowed. The Giants have a positive scoring differential this season, the Saints do not. 8* NY Giants |
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11-01-15 | Chargers v. Ravens -3 | Top | 26-29 | Push | 0 | 102 h 14 m | Show |
10* Baltimore (1:00 ET): This is a battle of arguably the two most disappointing teams in the AFC. The Chargers are 2-5 and the Ravens 1-6, but one of those records is misleading. That would be the latter one as Baltimore isn't bad per se, but rather unlucky. They are the first team in league history to open a season w/ seven straight games decided by eight points or less, yet have only won one time and that was a somewhat fortuitous result on a Thursday night at Pittsburgh. Meanwhile, San Diego is just plain bad. Their offensive line is in shambles, making life very difficult for QB Philip Rivers. Furthermore, the defense has allowed 24 or more points in every game this season, becoming just the third team over the last 25 seasons to do that in the first seven games! Lay the points. It's not just the unusually poor luck in close games that gives one hope the Ravens can turn things around; six of their final nine games are at home where they've gone 51-17 straight up during the tenure of John Harbaugh. Their next three games are all here at M&T Bank Stadium against opponents who are a combined 7-13 straight up. I was on this team Monday night as they pulled out their first ATS win of the year at Arizona. While salty Cardinals backers might be tempted to label that one as a "backdoor cover," note Baltimore was in position to actually tie the game before QB Joe Flacco threw an INT in the end zone. Both defenses here aren't very good, but the Chargers are clearly worse as they allow a league worst 6.5 yards per play. Look for Flacco to take advantage. Baltimore might be working on a short week, but the spot for San Diego is worse as it's the dreaded early start time for a West Coast team. Twice this season, the Chargers played in a 1:00 ET start and both times they failed to cover, including an ugly 31-14 loss at Minnesota in Wk 3. However, they'll get no sympathy from the Ravens, who have already had to head West four times this season. Things are looking really ugly in San Diego currently w/ rumors of the team relocating for LA leaving them w/ no real homefield advantage. Last week was an embarrassment as they trailed Oakland 30-3 at home in the first half before garbage time scoring made the game appear closer than it actually was. Now a bad defense is banged up w/ as many as four starters possibly missing this game including their top DB (Eric Weddle). 10* Baltimore |
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11-01-15 | Titans +4.5 v. Texans | Top | 6-20 | Loss | -110 | 39 h 50 m | Show |
10* Tennessee (1:00 ET): Like everyone else, I waited to see what the Titans' QB situation would be this week (had to - no line!) and it's Zach Mettenberger starting for a second straight game in place of the injured Marcus Mariota. Obviously, it would have been more ideal to have the rookie signal caller under center, but that being said I'm really surprised to see the horrible Texans getting this much respect from the linesmakers. Mettenberger isn't a legitimate starter in this league, but the Houston QB situation is really no better w/ Brian Hoyer left to man the battle station in the wake of Ryan Mallett's release. The Texans "laydown" effort LW at Miami was as bad a performance by any team I've seen all season. Take the points. Mallett's release came about because he missed the team's plane to Miami. While physically his teammates may have left him behind, you got the sense that they stayed back at home w/ him as they found themselves down 41-0 at halftime and after seven drives per side, the total yardage was an unfathomable 399-3 in the Dolphins' favor! Ugly starts are nothing new for the Texans, who have now found themselves down by 21 or more points in the first half in three of their six games! If being stuck w/ Hoyer at QB wasn't bad enough, Houston is now also w/o RB Arian Foster for the remainder of the season as he tore his ACL last week on the game's final drive. The Texans' record w/o Foster is a miserable 3-15 straight up. Not to "pile on," but on the defensive side of the ball JJ Watt isn't 100 percent. The Titans might only be 3-19 SU the L2 seasons, but I view them as an improved team in 2015 despite the five straight losses. They outgained four of their first five opponents and easily could have (and should have) beaten Atlanta last week at home. It was an ugly 10-7 loss instead and while the offense continues to struggle, they'll be going against a terrible defense this week. Houston is allowing 28.4 points and 370.9 yards per game so far and thus I expect the Titans to have their best offensive effort since beating Tampa Bay 42-17 in Week 1. The Texans are 6-2 SU/7-1 ATS the L4 years in this AFC South rivalry, a run "due" to correct itself. I would not be surprised at all to see Tennessee win this game outright. 10* Tennessee |
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10-29-15 | Dolphins v. Patriots -8 | Top | 7-36 | Win | 100 | 37 h 40 m | Show |
10* New England (8:25 ET): Taking the current temperature down in Miami, one would think that the legendary Don Shula might need to start making room for Dan Campbell among the pantheon of Dolphins coaches! In all seriousness, Campbell has seemingly restored order for what was a disappointing team, but he also came aboard at a very opportune time. He took over during a bye week and his first two games were both at home, against Tennessee and Houston, neither of whom is very good. This week presents Campbell's first true test, a visit to Foxboro to play the unbeaten Patriots. Miami has lost six straight times here in New England, the last three all coming by double digit margins, and I think tonight will prove to be a "cold dose of reality" for Mr. Campbell and company. I don't think that this Patriots team is as good as the '07 version that went undefeated heading into the Super Bowl. But they are the league's best team currently. The last two games have seen them get "backdoored," first by the Colts and then by the Jets, which I enjoyed seeing because I happened to have the underdog in both instances! However, I find it curious that Miami is basically getting the same (or more) respect from the linesmakers that the Jets did last week. The Jets are better than the Dolphins, for proof of this look no further than 27-14 beatdown they laid on them Week 4 in London. Again, the Dolphins have beaten two bad teams under Campbell and last week saw the opponent (Houston) basically implode in the first half. QB Ryan Tannehill got a lot of praise for completing 18 of 19 pass attempts, but he was still sacked four times and was just 1 for 5 on converting third downs. That's a pretty small sample size of attempts to be drawing positive conclusions from. Consider that Tom Brady had to throw 46 times in his team's win, against a far better opponent than Miami faced, as the Patriots essentially abandoned the run game altogether. New England is a remarkable 21-1 SU its last 22 home games and has scored at least 30 points each of its last five games overall. I just don't think that the Dolphins have the kind of firepower to keep up here. The Patriots' closest margin of victory this year has been seven points (three times!) and I think they'll be hungry for a blowout. They've won five straight on Thursday night and despite last week's result (when lowly San Francisco was the host), home teams typically enjoy a decided advantage in these TNF matchups. Remember that Miami lost to Jacksonville earlier in the the year and the following week saw New England destroy that same Jags team, 51-17, here at Gillette Stadium. Lay the points. 10* New England |
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10-26-15 | Baltimore Ravens +9.5 v. Arizona Cardinals | Top | 18-26 | Win | 100 | 13 h 5 m | Show |
10* Baltimore (8:30 ET): The decline of the Ravens has been shocking, but clearly you can point to the fact that every game has been close (decided by six points or less). Thus, when I look at this number, I see the linesmakers calling for something that has yet to happen, that being a Baltimore loss by more than one score. As strong as Arizona has looked at times this year, their four wins have come at the expense of New Orleans, Chicago (lost Cutler to injury), San Francisco and Detroit, all bad teams. The Ravens might be 1-5, but they are not in the same class as those aformentioned teams. They had the total yards edge in two of their five losses and probably should be .500. As was the case w/ the Cardinals, turnovers were the story in last week's loss. I expect another close game here. Take the points. Arizona is off a very tough loss last week in Pittsburgh (outgained them 469-310), but were -3 in turnovers, resulting in a season low 13 points. Remember that Baltimore's lone win this season came at the expense of the Steelers. As I pointed out in last week's analysis on the Under for Cardinals-Steelers (winning ticket!), Arizona has benefited from an abundance of non-offensive touchdowns so far, which is unsustainable. They are -6 in turnovers in their two losses, which I'm not surprised about because there have been games like the one vs. Detroit when they were +6 in TO margin. The Cardinals offense would take a major hit if WR John Brown, their best downfield threat, did not play here. Having covered 66 percent of their games under HC Bruce Arians, Arizona is due to take a hit. This line is clearly inflated. Baltimore is in a do or die situation here, so we know we're going to get their best shot. A loss here would effectively end their season. After this, they do play three consecutive home games against San Diego, Jacksonville and St. Louis, so it's not out of the realm of possibility that they can fight their way back into the Wild Card race in an AFC that is top-heavy, but has little beyond the three unbeaten teams. The Ravens are a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS on Monday nights the L4 seasons and have been a dog of a touchdown or more just five times under HC John Harbaugh, going 4-1 ATS in those contests. 10* Baltimore |
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10-25-15 | Philadelphia Eagles +3.5 v. Carolina Panthers | Top | 16-27 | Loss | -117 | 75 h 40 m | Show |
10* Philadelphia (8:30 ET): The Eagles treated me well Monday night, dominating the Giants 27-7 and now turn to another primetime affair, this one against the unbeaten Panthers. In my MNF analysis, I laid out a case that Chip Kelly's team was far better than its overall record and they backed me up w/ a second straight winning ticket. I had them in Week 5 as well when they blew out New Orleans at home, 39-17, rolling up 34 first downs and 500+ total yards. That game could have been even more lopsided had QB Sam Bradford not thrown two INT's in the endzone. The total yardage was equally dominant in the Eagles favor vs. the Giants, 425-249. This is also a chance to "sell high" on Carolina, who is coming off a shocking, last-second win in Seattle. Take the points. Philly hasn't really been blown out this year w/ two of their three losses coming by a field goal. They'll certainly be comfortable in the current price range as during Kelly's tenure they are a perfect 4-0 against the spread as a road underdog of three points or less. Turnovers have been an issue thus far for the Eagles, but that can be rectified. Just like the running game has been; the last two weeks have seen them go for 341 yards over land. In fact, in the team's three wins, they have averaged just under 37 rush attempts for 154.5 yards, basically last week's exact output. Knowing that, look for Kelly to establish the run here. Also, this Eagles defense has quietly been very good. They rank second, in terms of efficiency, trailing only the Jets. The teams met just last year. It was all Eagles in a 45-21 beatdown that they led by as many as 38 points. At the time, the Panthers were playing poorly; they were in the midst of a six-game losing streak. This year is obviously a different story, but remember that Carolina hadn't exactly played a challenging schedule the first four weeks. Three of their five wins have been by seven points or less. They were off a bye going into last week's game. Their offense ranks just 28th in yards per game (334.2). The current number of unbeaten teams around the league remains high and you just get the feeling some are about to fall off the list. 10* Philadelphia |
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10-25-15 | NY Jets +9 v. New England Patriots | Top | 23-30 | Win | 100 | 67 h 10 m | Show |
10* NY Jets (1:00 ET): The Jets have a history of playing the Patriots tough (4-0 ATS the L2 seasons!) and there is no denying that this year's edition of the Flyboys is the strongest yet during that time frame. Clearly, Geno Smith's broken jaw was the best thing that could have happened to this team as Ryan Fitzpatrick has stepped in and given them above average play at the QB position while the rest of the roster is surprisingly stacked with talent. This is the ONLY team in the league to have outgained every opponent this season and they look like a real bargain getting this many points for a division game, which more often than not, end up being close. They bring in what is by most measures, the best defense in the entire league. Take the points. The Jets have many of the characteristics that you look for in a live dog. One is that defense. They are giving up the fewest points (15.0) and yards (269) per game, not to mention the fewest yards per play (4.4) and they've forced the most turnovers. Improved play at the cornerback position, due mostly to bringing Darrelle Revis back, is responsible for the stellar marks. The secondary comes into this game fully healthy. That should serve them well against what is generally regarded as the league's best offense. On the other side of the ball, RB Chris Ivory leads the league w/ 115.5 rushing yards per game. That obviously helps alleviate the pressure on Fitzpatrick and furthermore should allow the Jets to control the ball in this game. The only game which the Jets lost this year was to the Eagles and can mainly be pinned on four turnovers. They actually outgained Philly 323-231 and since then have rolled over both Miami (425-226 in total yds) and Washington (474-225), winning by a combined 27 pts. They really dominated the Redskins worse than the final scored showed as they were up 34-13 before a punt was blocked and returned for a TD late. New York now has a top five point differential in the entire league at +54. The comparisons of this Patriots team to the 2007 version that went unbeaten until the Super Bowl seem a little far-fetched from where I sit. Three of their wins have been by eight points or less and the only two blowouts came against Jacksonville and Dallas (no Romo). This will be the first time that the Pats are facing a pass defense ranked higher than 17th. Those last four matchups between these two have all been decided by a field goal or less. 10* NY Jets |
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10-25-15 | Pittsburgh Steelers v. Kansas City Chiefs -2 | Top | 13-23 | Win | 100 | 46 h 57 m | Show |
10* Kansas City (1:00 ET): So, it will be third-stringer Landry Jones going for Pittsburgh in this one and even though the Steelers come in as a slight dog, I still think there's some substantial value here on the other side. While everyone has been quick to laud Jones for his play in relief of the ineffective Mike Vick, it's tough to like a QB making his first career start on the road. The Chiefs are actually much better than their record shows as they've taken on a relatively challenging schedule to this point and actually won the total yardage battle in half of their games. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, has been outgained in four of six games and arguably was very lucky to win its last two. Regression rears its head in this one as KC finally breaks through. Lay the points. The Chiefs actually slightly outgained Minnesota (328-321) in the 16-10 loss last week despite being shutout for three quarters. Predictably, they struggled initially to move the chains w/o Jamaal Charles (out for the season). Encouraging is that their defense has bounced back w/ B2B solid performances after not looking very good against Denver, Green Bay and Cincinnati. While on a 5-game SU/ATS losing streak, three of the defeats have been close. Other than Green Bay and Cincinnati, both road games, Kansas City could have won every game this year. This is the worst start to a season ever in Andy Reid's coaching career and even if it's just for one week, I expect to see the Chiefs team we all expected to get at the beginning of the year. Though they beat a very good Arizona team last week, 25-13, the Steelers should feel quite fortunate as they were outgained 469-310 and out first downed, 21-14. A +3 turnover margin was the real story there, not Landry Jones. The week previous, the Steelers were outgained by San Diego 406-349 and -10 in first downs. With Vick at the helm, the offense really struggled, and honestly I don't expect much improvement w/ Jones now in there. I expect the Chiefs defense to play well. The Steelers have had somewhat of a challenging schedule to this point, having to alternate road and home games. Look for Jones to struggle in his first career start in what is somewhat of a lookahead for Pittsburgh, the week before playing division leader Cincinnati. 10* Kansas City |
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10-19-15 | NY Giants v. Philadelphia Eagles -5 | Top | 7-27 | Win | 100 | 19 h 19 m | Show |
10* Philadelphia (8:25 ET): Curiously, despite the vast majority of bets being on the Giants (roughly 70%) in this game, we've actually seen an INCREASE in the spread, which is a possible indicator of "smart money" being on the Eagles. I think the perspective of most is that these two teams are fairly comparable, so taking the points is the way to go. However, Philadelphia has really owned this NFC East rivalry through the years, taking 11 of the past 14 matchups straight up while going 10-4 against the spread. They swept last year, including a 27-0 shutout here at home in Week 6 when the G-Men came in on a three-game win streak, an identical scenario to tonight's game. Lay the points. The Eagles were a very nice winner for me in Week 5 as they blew out the Saints, 39-17 here at home. That was another game where the public was lined up against them as a home favorite. I think that the disappointing 1-3 start had a lot to do w/ that, but off - by far - their best game of the season, I'm fairly surprised they're not getting more support here. They rolled up 34 first downs and 500+ total yards on New Orleans and it's not like the Giants' defense has been overly impressive. Keep in mind that QB Sam Bradford was intercepted TWICE in the end zone last week, so the final score there could have been even more lopsided. The Eagles defense has been surprisingly good in two home games, allowing just 37 points total. This team has gone 3-1 SU/ATS on Monday Night Football under Chip Kelly. With the expectation being a high-scoring game tonight, that doesn't bode well for the Giants, who are just 2-7 SU and 3-6 ATS the last nine times the total has been 49.5 points or higher. It should be pointed out that the three quarterbacks they've faced during the win streak are: Kirk Cousins, Tyrod Taylor and Colin Kaepernick. Eli Manning has looked great, but the team needed every bit of his 441 passing yards last week just to beat a bad 49ers team at home and this week he could be w/o several weapons. The Giants' pass defense had allowed 300+ yards each of the first three games before facing Taylor and Kaepernick. Look for Bradford and the Eagles to have another big day here. 10* Philadelphia |
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10-18-15 | New England Patriots v. Indianapolis Colts +10 | Top | 34-27 | Win | 100 | 23 h 17 m | Show |
10* Indianapolis (8:25 ET): I fully realize that the world is expecting the Patriots to come in with a vengeance here and take the Colts behind the "woodshed." But considering the Colts were -3 for this matchup back in the preseason, I'd say we now have some substantial value to work with. In his career, Andrew Luck has been a home dog six times. He has won all six of those games outright w/ the team winning by a combined 33 points! He has never closed as a home dog of more than a touchdown previously. Though they covered last week against an anemic Cowboys team, the Patriots are still only 3-7 ATS as a road favorite of more than a field goal. Though they haven't shown it so far, let's not forget that the Colts were being tabbed as Super Bowl contenders prior to the start of the year. There is no denying that the Patriots have dominated the Colts, time after time, and that has played a significant role in this line. New England is no fluke at 4-0, but consider the last two games have seen them play a terrible Jacksonville team as well as Dallas w/o Romo. Prior to that, their two wins were by a combined 15 points. With everyone seemingly calling for the blowout here, I have the sneaky suspicion that it won't happen. Double digit favorites (on the road no less) w/ this much public support are typically money burners. New England's pass protection was not good last week and I still have concerns with their secondary. Yes, the Colts won both games w/ Luck out of the lineup. But there is no denying they are a better team w/ him in the lineup. They should be the team that's motivated here, not the Patriots, given the recent history of this rivalry. Indianapolis is 15-5 SU at home the L3 seasons. Take advantage of the dramatic swing in public perception here as all the value is on the dog. 10* Indianapolis |
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10-18-15 | Baltimore Ravens -2.5 v. San Francisco 49ers | Top | 20-25 | Loss | -108 | 122 h 56 m | Show |
10* Baltimore (4:25 ET): I realize that the Ravens have been thoroughly disappointing thus far (I had them last week in an outright loss, at home, to Cleveland), but I do not believe things are as bad as they seem. For starters, every game they've played has been decided by six points or less, yet somehow they've managed to lose four times. That seems like a case of bad luck more than anything else. Now compare the Ravens' resume to that of the 49ers, another 1-4 club, but one that has already suffered three double digit defeats and prior to last week had scored just 10 points total in B2B games. The road team seems to be severely undervalued in this one, so I say lay the points in what seems like a "get well game" for John Harbaugh's team. John's brother Jim I'm sure is in a surly mood following yesterday's events and I wouldn't be surprised if he proceeded to send even more "dirt" on his former team Baltimore's way. Not like the Ravens should need much help in this one, anyway. Even though many of his top weapons are battling injuries, I expect Joe Flacco to have a big game here. 49ers' opponents have averaged more than 315 yards passing (446.6 YPG allowed total) to this point w/ a 9-2 TD-INT ratio. The 49ers have twice allowed 40+ points this season and last week gave up 525 total yards to the Giants w/ Eli Manning completing 41 of 54 pass attempts! Remember that the Ravens also swept LY's non-conference slate. The loss last week to the Giants was pretty crushing for the 49ers considering they played a heck of a lot better than they had the previous three games. But I just don't think this team is capable of playing well in B2B games, quite frankly. Even after last week's performance, they still are averaging only 15.0 points per game, easily the fewest in the league. In the two games prior to last week, they failed to gain even 200 total yards either time. In their last four games, the Ravens have averaged a very solid 27 PPG. Road favorites are a RARE play for me, but you can't tell me that this line would have been this low a couple of weeks ago. 10* Baltimore |
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10-18-15 | Cincinnati Bengals v. Buffalo Bills +3 | Top | 34-21 | Loss | -105 | 119 h 32 m | Show |
8* Buffalo (1:00 ET): Whether or not QB Tyrod Taylor suits up for the Bills in this game is irrelevant to the play. In taking Buffalo, the quarterback position is hardly the most important factor. Their strength lies on the other side of the ball where aside from Tom Brady and New England, they've held every opponent in check. Furthermore, there's some really good value on the home dog here as Buffalo actually opened as a one-point point favorite, but now finds itself getting a field goal. More often than not, when we see a change in favoritism like this, the line move comes into play. This is also a very tough spot for the Bengals, now laying points on the road, the week after a huge come from behind effort against Seattle. A big story entering Week 6 is all the undefeated teams, Cincinnati among them. But we've already lost one (Atlanta) Thursday and I imagine others will start dropping as well. In the past, I've talked about the "Seattle effect," which has had a good number of teams struggle the week after playing the Seahawks. At one point, teams lost 10 straight times in this role. Earlier this year, Green Bay won the week after beating Seattle, but they had the advantage of playing on Monday night. Chicago also won its game the week after playing Seattle, but they were in the unique situation of playing as a home dog against Oakland. We all saw what happened last week w/ Detroit. So, to summarize, that's 11 losses in 13 games for teams the week after playing the Seahawks. The Bills are another physical team that will present many of the same matchup issues. Remember that Cincinnati trailed 24-7 at home last week. I realize that the Bills are dealing w/ numerous injuries on the offensive side of the ball. They were somewhat fortunate to beat Tennessee last week (I cashed the Titans plus the points), 14-13, despite just 209 yards of total offense. So, again, Taylor won't exactly be missed if he's not on the field Sunday. While the Bengals may be getting touted as one of the league's best teams, let's not forget that they have three wins by five points or less and are due to start dropping a "close" game or two, given that they are 6-0-1 dating back to last year in one score games. Their defense is just 22nd against the pass (262.6 YPG) and allowed 200+ yds rushing to Seattle last week. For the Bills, RB LeSean McCoy is now expected to play after missing the L2 games as is WR Sammy Watkins. This one is all about taking advantage of a line move. 8* Buffalo |
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10-18-15 | Kansas City Chiefs +4 v. Minnesota Vikings | Top | 10-16 | Loss | -110 | 119 h 31 m | Show |
8* Kansas City (1:00 ET): At first glance, this may look like a terrible spot for the visiting Chiefs. They just lost RB Jamaal Charles for the year to an ACL injury and Minnesota is off a bye. But I'm not as high on these Vikings and some others and a pretty clear case can be made that Kansas City is much better than its 1-4 record indicates. They've had the edge (in total yards) in two of their four losses and last week I think they were "shell-shocked" by Charles going down as from that point on, they were outscored 15-0. Predictably, the public is all over the Vikings in this one, but curiously the line has pretty much stayed the same, and actually gone down at some shops. Remember that KC has played a pretty tough schedule to this point as well. It's not as if the Chiefs don't have options to make up for Charles' lost production. No one player will be able to fill the void, but between Knile Davis, Charcandrick West and De'Anthony Thomas, the offense still should be able to move the ball on the ground. Granted, I am worried about QB Alex Smith and the passing game, particularly a lack of pass protection coupled w/ Smith's inability to get the ball downfield. You'll note that Minnesota is allowing only 18.2 points per game this season. However, they have hardly faced any of the league's top offenses. Remember that this is a team that scored only three points in an opening week loss at San Francisco. With their backs seemingly against the wall, I'll call for a surprisingly efficient Chiefs performance on offense. Defense has been the real disappointment for Kansas City, however. You'll recall that when I made last week's big Under play on their game vs. the Bears, I noted that last season the Chiefs didn't allow 30 points in any game. This year, they've allowed 30+ three times, but two of those instances came against top-flight offenses (Green Bay and Cincinnati) and the Denver debacle speaks for itself. Last week, saw them hold Chicago to just six points until the final two drives. Fortunately for this week, the opponent doesn't have a very dynamic scoring offense. The Vikings have yet to gain more than 350 total yds in any game this season and w/ a banged up receiving corps, Teddy Bridgewater could struggle here. Pass protection has been an issue for both teams, but I believe KC to have the better pass rush. Also, the Vikes are 0-2 SU/ATS the L2 years off a bye. 8* Kansas City |
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10-15-15 | Atlanta Falcons v. New Orleans Saints +3.5 | Top | 21-31 | Win | 100 | 68 h 4 m | Show |
10* New Orleans (8:25 ET): Atlanta might be 5-0 SU (4-1 ATS), but four times they've had to come from behind in the fourth quarter, including last week's 25-19 OT win over Washington. I was on the Redskins there and they covered for me, wire to wire. Still having six unbeaten teams at this point in the year is definitely a surprise (no team started even 4-0 SU last year) and a big theme entering Week 6. I think a clear case can be made that the Falcons are one of the weaker unbeatens as they've been outgained in two of their victories. Throw in the questionable status of star WR Julio Jones (hamstring) and I think you have a live dog here as despite not being what they once were, the Saints are still a dangerous team at home. Take the points. I've had a good read on New Orleans their last two games. In another primetime affair, I took them (as a favorite) in a 26-20 overtime win over Dallas. I was a big seller on their chances last week in Philadelphia however, and was rewarded w/ an easy 39-17 win by the Eagles. There was a time when the Saints as home dogs would have been somewhat unfathomable, but as previously discussed they actually entered the Dallas game on a six-game home losing streak! Still though, this is a really solid value against an opponent they are all too familiar with. It's a double revenge spot as well as the Falcons swept LY's season series. Atlanta has not won B2B years in the Superdome since 2001-02 and is just 3-9 SU its L12 visits here. Four turnovers killed New Orleans last week and turned what was a close game (10-10 halfway through 3rd quarter) into a blowout. They have now lost all three games where they've lost the turnover battle, but note the two prior losses were much closer. The Falcons have been favored in New Orleans only three times since 1999. All three times they failed to cover and the last two, they've lost the game outright. It's hard to imagine all these teams staying unbeaten and you just know that you're going to get the Saints' best shot here. That "best shot" may not be what it once was, but it will be good enough to at least cover the spread. Atlanta is just 5-12 SU/7-10 ATS its last 17 road games. 10* New Orleans |
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10-12-15 | Pittsburgh Steelers v. San Diego Chargers -3.5 | Top | 24-20 | Loss | -103 | 20 h 50 m | Show |
10* San Diego (8:30 ET): The dog is on a 9-2 ATS run on MNF (4-1 this year), but here it's the favorite being undervalued. Not factored enough into this line, at least in my opinion, is the dropoff at QB for Pittsburgh from Ben Roethlisberger to Mike Vick. Sure, the Steelers probably "should have won" last Thursday at home over rival Baltimore, but that final result somewhat hid the fact Vick was generally pretty terrible in first game as the starter. Meanwhile, the Chargers have Philip Rivers. While he's being asked to carry his team, it's definitely a big edge at the most important position for San Diego. Yes, the Lightning Bolts struggled here at home against Cleveland last week. But I expect a more comfortable win here. More often than not, teams from the Pacific Time Zone have the edge over teams from the East in these primetime games ("Circadian advantage"). Lay the points. That narrow win over the Browns last week now doesn't look quite as shaky after Cleveland won at Baltimore yday w/ QB Josh McCown throwing for 450+ yards. Rivers threw for 358 himself and three touchdowns in the 30-27 victory. He is #1 in the league throwing against a blitz, completing 80% of his pass attempts. Rivers should only get better moving forward as tonight TE Antonio Gates (suspended first 4 games) returns to the lineup. This Steelers secondary, which is no longer even close to what it once was, has already allowed 7 TD passes this season. This is one where I think the Chargers, despite questions along both lines, can simply "outscore" their opponents, who clearly have offensive issues of their own. The Steelers gained only 253 total yards last week. That was against a Baltimore defense that was just torched by Josh McCown yday. Their only second half score was set up deep in Ravens territory via a turnover. Excluding a kneeldown, Pittsburgh's offense had seven drives of four plays or fewer. Five times they went three and out while gaining three yards or less! Vick finished the game w/ only 124 yards passing on a paltry 4.8 yards per attempt. Remember the offense didn't really move the ball at all w/ Vick under center in a 12-6 win over the Rams the previous week. The Black & Gold are 0-3 SU/0-2-1 ATS as road dogs of 3.5 to 7 pts the L3 seasons. 10* San Diego |
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10-11-15 | New England Patriots v. Dallas Cowboys +10 | Top | 30-6 | Loss | -125 | 114 h 59 m | Show |
8* Dallas (4:25 ET): This, I concede, is an ugly one where I ask you to "hold your nose." Though I played against the Cowboys (and won!) last week, Jason Garrett remains one of the better coaches in the entire league in the underdog role, going 22-9 against the spread (5-1 last year) including an outright win earlier this season at Philadelphia that I was on. Ironically, only Bill Belichick has a better ATS mark when taking points during that same time. Home dogs of this size are rare, but while you saw San Francisco fail in a similar price range last week vs. Green Bay, that final score demonstrated the slim margin for error in such situations even if the discrepancy between the two sides is as great as it was there or seemingly is here. Take the points. Though 0-2 w/ Brandon Weeden as the starter, its not as if the record is solely on the Cowboys' backup QB. In fact, the offense has actually scored one more point in the two games that he's started compared to the two w/ Romo! Weeden has completed 76.5 percent of his pass attempts as well. They've been competitive in both games, which were on the road, at two very tough places to play (Atlanta, New Orleans). New England certainly represents a step up in class even from that, but as a big road favorite the Patriots have been quite vulnerable through the years, going 2-7 against the spread when laying three or more points. This is probably one of the biggest road favorites we will see all season, so it's worth a shot even though New England is off a bye and Weeden has lost 12 consecutive starts. The Dallas defense many be the key to this game as it will have Greg Hardy on the field for the first time. Somewhat of a knucklehead off the field (that's putting it mildly!), Hardy can be a key contributor here. Rolando McClain is another suspended player returning this week. Getting back to the Patriots' perceived invincibility, they are 0-2 ATS the past two seasons as a road fave of 7.5 to 10 points and 2-6 ATS their last eight in that price range. Also, while the book on Belichick is to avoid betting against him off the bye, he's actually lost two of the last four seasons, both on the road. 8* Dallas |
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10-11-15 | Washington Redskins +9 v. Atlanta Falcons | Top | 19-25 | Win | 100 | 133 h 49 m | Show |
10* Washington (1:00 ET): The Redskins, surprisingly, are one of a select number of teams to have outgained every foe to this point in the season. Granted, that involved a little "garbage time" against the Giants, but the team treated me last week in a 23-20 "upset" (were +3) at home vs. Philadelphia. QB Kirk Cousins typically does not play B2B good games, but getting more than one score here, he and the 'Skins are a great value and certainly capable of pulling the outright upset. I say that knowing full well that Atlanta is 4-0 SU/ATS, but there have been some close calls in there and they've been outgained in two games. Consider that they are being asked to lay more points here than they were against the vastly inferior Texans. Take the points. Including last week's number, which actually dropped prior to kickoff, the Falcons have not been asked to lay a touchdown in any game this year. In fact, they closed as a slight dog for each of their first three games. Offensively, everything has clicked for them the L2 games and the defense seems much improved under 1st year HC Dan Quinn. But compared to the L2 games, when they faced Dallas w/o Romo and a bad Houston team, this is a step up in class. The Washington defense has not allowed more than 363 total yards in a game this season and is giving up just 19.3 points per game. The Atlanta offense is pretty dependent on WR Julio Jones, who is having an incredible start to the season, but his pace is likely to start slowing down. Meanwhile, on offense, expect the Redskins to be able to run the ball effectively in this matchup. They bring to the Georgia Dome the league's top ranked rushing offense and the Falcons are just 27th in yards per carry allowed (4.43). The key for Atlanta is they have gotten out to big leads in nearly all of their games, thus their opponents have not been able to run the ball as much as they'd probably like. Cousins has some confidence after leading a 90-yard, GW drive last week. He must protect the ball here against a Falcons defense that forced four takeaways LW vs. Houston. Atlanta has not turned the ball over in three weeks. This should end up being a very close game. 10* Washington |
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10-11-15 | Cleveland Browns v. Baltimore Ravens -6 | Top | 33-30 | Loss | -108 | 133 h 49 m | Show |
10* Baltimore (1:00 ET): It's rare that I call for a blowout in the NFL, but I will here as the Ravens are ripe for a strong performance after getting extra time to prepare for their Week 5 opponent, who they have historically dominated. It's been four close games so far for John Harbaugh's team, three of them not going their way. But, with their season very much on the brink, they rallied past rival Pittsburgh last Thursday in a stunning 23-20 overtime win. I think the fact that they were fortunate to win that game has the public still lukewarm on their overall outlook, but it's not as if they've necessarily played poorly in any game this year. Cleveland, meanwhile, left in "all on the field" last week in a painful 30-27 loss at San Diego. One of the league's worst teams, I cannot see the Browns being competitive in B2B games. Lay the points. Baltimore does have a concern here, that being a lack of weapons surrounding QB Joe Flacco. WR Steve Smith, Flacco's favorite target, is out here w/ an injured back. But don't be surprised if this is the game where RB Justin Forsett finally gets going. Despite their head coach's pedigree, the Browns' run defense has been awful under Mike Pettine. Last week was the first time this season they did not allow 150 yards rushing. That was against a Chargers team w/ a terrible offensive line. Still though, they found a way to allow 30 points and lose, even though QB Josh McCown actually played well. Don't forget that the Browns also allowed an average of 29 PPG in losses to the Raiders and Jets. Forsett gained 150 yards last week against the Steelers and LY averaged 6.5 YPC against this Cleveland defense. With Flacco at quarterback, the Ravens are 13-1 SU all-time vs. the Browns and have run for 100+ yards in all but four of those games. The team is also an impressive 32-9 straight up and 26-13-2 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. They really do seem undervalued in this spot. Consider that they were asked to lay double digits when hosting Cleveland last year, an easy 20-10 win. You could make the argument that the Ravens aren't as strong this year, but the difference isn't that severe and the Browns are still bad, plus off a heartbreaking loss to boot. 10* Baltimore |
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10-11-15 | Buffalo Bills v. Tennessee Titans +3 | Top | 14-13 | Win | 100 | 111 h 35 m | Show |
8* Tennessee (1:00 ET): This is somewhat of a classic "sharps vs. squares" play. That's not intended to mock or belittle anyone's betting strategy, but here we have a situation where despite receiving the vast majority of bets, Buffalo has seen the line actually come DOWN. Even though they lost outright last week, at home, to the Giants (were 6-pt favorites), I feel the Bills are still getting a residual "benefit of the doubt" due to dominant wins over the Colts and Dolphins. But, as we often see at the College level, sometimes past wins need to be reassessed and in this instance, neither win looks as impressive as it once did. The Titans are off a bye here and have actually outgained all three opponents to date. Take the points. Prior to the bye week, Tennessee suffered a narrow defeat at the hands of division rival Indianapolis, but covered there as a small home dog. Their only other loss came on the road, at Cleveland, where they were -3 in the turnover battle. The defense allowed fewer than 275 total yards in that game and did the same in the season opening win at Tampa Bay. They could have beaten Indianapolis two weeks ago, but blew a 13-point lead and failed on the potential game-tying two-point conversion. Still though, I expect rookie QB Marcus Mariota and company to be able to move the ball in this game. While you have Rex Ryan inheriting a defense that ranked near the top of the league in many metrics last season, the results for the Bills this year have been pretty disappointing. They've allowed an average of 376.2 yards per game to this point. Penalties have also been a concern for these Bills. Last week, they were called for a season-high 17 and now have the dubious distinction of leading the league in that category w/ 47 for 428 yards. Also, I wonder how much longer QB Tyrod Taylor can give the team adequate play. Taylor doesn't have LeSean McCoy at his disposal yet again and WR Sammy Watkins is out as well. Meanwhile, Mariota has thrown for 833 yards in three games w/ eight TD passes. He didn't have an interception until throwing two in the Colts game. The Titans are certainly healthier coming off the bye and this is a pretty rare instance of Buffalo coming in as a road favorite. It's happened just one time each of the last four seasons and twice they've lost outright, including to the Raiders last season. 8* Tennessee |
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10-11-15 | New Orleans Saints v. Philadelphia Eagles -4.5 | Top | 17-39 | Win | 100 | 111 h 34 m | Show |
8* Philadelphia (1:00 ET): Few, if any, will be interested in laying points w/ the under-performing Eagles right now, but I'll take a flier. QB Sam Bradford finally seemed willing to open up last week, throwing eight passes of 20+ yards, completing four of them for 176 yards and two touchdowns. In comes New Orleans, off a high-profile national TV win, that I was on. But in watching the once-mighty Saints prevail in the Mercedes Benz Superdome, it occurred to me just how far they have truly fallen. It was a struggle getting to 26 points at home against a bad Dallas team, something that as recently as last year would have been somewhat unthinkable. This team has never really traveled well, so lay the points. While cashing in on New Orleans last week, a somewhat fortunate cover, I also cashed in going AGAINST Philadelphia as they lost outright (as small road favorites) in Washington. But as mentioned above, there were some positive signs coming out of last week, many of them having to do w/ Bradford. While the Eagles have yet to outgain a single opponent all season, the Saints hadn't either - until last week. Bradford should build on last week's small success facing a secondary that has allowed 14 completions of 20+ yards, sixth most in the league. Furthermore, the Saints defense is last against the pass in terms of yards per attempt (9.8) and the Philly run game could finally get going here as New Orleans has allowed 17 runs of 10+ yards. As "poorly" as the Eagles have played, they've been in every game. The kicking game has been bad and arguably cost them two games. The bottom line is that I think it is incorrect to write Chip Kelly's team off at this point. Three of their first four games were on the road. The New Orleans offense has not scored more than 22 points in regulation in any game this season and that season-high came in the game that Brees did not play, ironically enough. When taking on a team w/ a losing record, the Eagles are both 8-5 straight up and against the spread under Kelly. It's an odd thing, but when the public is backing an underdog, it raises red flags for me. 8* Philadelphia |
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10-05-15 | Detroit Lions +10.5 v. Seattle Seahawks | Top | 10-13 | Win | 100 | 20 h 1 m | Show |
8* Detroit (8:30 ET): If the Seahawks win this game & they likely will, I'm still not sure that proves "they're back" & all is well in the Pacific Northwest. What it would mean is B2B wins over Chicago and Detroit, a pair of opponents that would then be a collective 1-7 straight up. Last week vs. the Bears, Seattle's first home game of the season, resulted in a 26-0 final but if you take away two non-offensive touchdowns, then the offensive shortcomings are still apparent. Throw in the fact that they will be w/o bell cow RB Marshawn Lynch tonight and facing a desperate Lions team (0-3 SU/ATS), I just wouldn't want to be caught laying double digits in this one. Take the points. After three games, it quite clear that Detroit is going to regress this season. A playoff team a year ago, the loss of Ndamukong Suh on defense coupled w/ questionable offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi, is not a good combo. They've actually been outgained in every game so far. Were it not for two non-offensive TD's themselves in Week 1, they wouldn't have even scored 20 pts in any game this year. But there's certainly offensive talent on this team: Matt Stafford, Ameer Abdullah, Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate. I think TE Eric Ebron is capable of having a big game here as well. Something to keep in mind is that the Lions are now the league's only winless team. I took both Chicago and New Orleans yday and they won. Detroit probably won't win SU here, but only Indianapolis is 0-4 ATS, so the law of averages is somewhat on their side. We're all aware of the Seahawks' tremendous homefield advantage and with this being a night game, it's only stronger. But this Seattle team is simply not as strong as past editions. They were actually booed in the first half LW vs. the Bears. The offensive line, now w/o Max Unger (traded for Jimmy Graham), is a major liability. QB Russell Wilson has been pressured more than only four other quarterbacks and as a result he's averaging just 5.68 yards per pass attempt (27th in the league). This is likely to be a low-scoring affair Monday night and at the very least, the "back door" will be open for the Lions to "steal" the cover. 8* Detroit |
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10-04-15 | Dallas Cowboys v. New Orleans Saints -3 | Top | 20-26 | Win | 100 | 44 h 5 m | Show |
10* New Orleans (8:30 ET): Drew Brees is back for the Saints and as a result, I see the team breaking through w/ its first victory of 2015 Sunday night. Last week, without him, they covered for me at 3-0 Carolina, even jumping out to an early 10-0 lead as 9.5-point pups. That was w/ journeyman Luke McCown under center against a pretty good Panthers' defense. They had more first downs than Carolina (27-24) for the game. Here, they draw a Dallas team that from an offensive talent perspective is now nowhere near where they were a season ago when they beat New Orleans by 21 (at home). QB Tony Romo and WR Dez Bryant are both injured and of course they let DeMarco Murray walk in the offseason. With Brees back, the home team should roll. Lay the points. What ever happened to the Saints' old "home magic?" Once upon a time, they were unbeatable at the Mercedes Benz Superdome, but shockingly dropped their final five home games of 2014 and then were beaten outright here by the Bucs (as 10-pt chalk) back in Week 2 (I was on Tampa Bay). This is a night game and that's a situation this team excelled in for years. Off B2B losses, the Saints are 4-1 ATS. Brees as bad as he looked in Week 2, absolutely gives the team its best chance to win. While New Orleans' previous home field edge is due to correct itself, Dallas too is "due" to start regressing on the road. They've won nine straight regular season games on the road. That seems like a streak that can't be continued. It seems shocking that w/ Brees back, the Saints would only be laying the standard number for being a home team. Brandon Weeden looked decent for a half last week vs. Atlanta, but the fact remains he has now lost nine consecutive starts and has a negative TD-INT ratio for his career. His yards per pass attempt was extraordinarily low last week. The Cowboys ' outstanding offensive line can only do so much w/ a lack of talent at the skill positions. The defense is also bad as it gave up 453 total yards last week. They couldn't stop the Falcons at all in the second half, and their last visit here to the Superdome (two years ago) saw them give up a NFL record 40 first downs. 10* New Orleans |
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10-04-15 | St Louis Rams +7.5 v. Arizona Cardinals | Top | 24-22 | Win | 100 | 52 h 15 m | Show |
8* St. Louis (4:25 ET): This may be the riskiest play of the three, considering how hot Arizona has been to start the season. But let's break down this 3-0 start down, shall we? The Cardinals have beaten the Saints, Bears and 49ers, none of whom are going to be playoff teams and the latter pair might be the two worst teams in the entire NFC. The Rams, a confusing team that's a fringe playoff contender at best, are a significant step up in class from that aforementioned trio, even though they are coming off a meager six-point effort at home against the Steelers. Despite already having beaten Seattle, they are being placed into the same price range here as the 49ers were last week despite being a significantly better team. Take the points. Non-offensive touchdowns have been a big part of the Cardinals' repertoire to this point as they have four the past two games, three of them coming from the defense and that doesn't even include the safety that they recorded last week vs. the 49ers. That game was essentially "over before it started" as Colin Kaepernick was intercepted on B2B drives, both of them returned for TD's. Getting out to that kind of lead is obviously huge for a team as it allows them to dictate pace. The week prior saw Arizona return the opening kickoff for a touchdown. I envision this game being more of a slugfest where such opportunities are not present for the Cardinals. To this point, the offensive line has kept Carson Palmer relatively clean, but he has not yet had to face a defensive front the caliber of what St. Louis brings to the table. Not that I would ever hope for an injury, but it is certainly worth pointing out that it was the Rams who ended Palmer's 2014 season. We also saw what happened to Ben Roethlisberger last week. Just saying. Now we'll obviously need the Rams offense to get something going after scoring only 16 points total the past two weeks. Despite many signs to the contrary, I believe they will. But what this play really boils down to is the fact Arizona is due to start regressing, sooner rather than later. They have now covered over two-thirds of their games since the start of last season. That's very hard to do. Also, Palmer has won eight consecutive starts. With the Cardinals bandwagon finally attracting real support, it is time to fade them. 8* St. Louis |
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10-04-15 | Oakland Raiders v. Chicago Bears +3 | Top | 20-22 | Win | 100 | 101 h 16 m | Show |
10* Chicago (1:00 ET): Just how far have the Bears fallen in the public's eyes? Well, this week, they come in as a home underdog .... to the Raiders!? Yes, it's been a very ugly start in the Windy City, though I should point out that the team played Green Bay tough here at home in Week 1 and then was trading touchdowns with Arizona before QB Jay Cutler was lost to an injury. Since then, they've been outscored 46-3 by the Cards and Seahawks w/ Jimmy Clausen in at quarterback. That's bad and the result was a mid-week "fire sale"as the team dumped a bunch of veteran players in exchange for future draft picks. That's never a good sign when it's only Week 4, but I'm calling for the Bears to "circle the wagons" this week. Take the points. Prior to last week's 27-20 win over the lowly Browns, Oakland had lost its previous 11 road games and 19 of the last 20. It was a RARE win in the Eastern Time Zone for the Silver and Black. Now, they're actually being favored on the road for the first time since 2012 and favored for the first time period since 2013! What happened the last time they were favored on the road you ask? They lost to Miami outright by 22 points. While 1st year HC Jack Del Rio does have the team trending in a positive direction w/ some decent, young talent on hand, this is a classic case of "cart before the horse" as one road win should not equate to being favored on the road the following week. After all, the Raiders have not won B2B road games since 2011, the same season they last produced a three-game win streak of any kind. Yes, the Bears punted after every possession last week and were shut out. But that was in Seattle against one of the better defenses in the league. When Clausen first appeared, it was against Arizona, who also has one of the league's better defenses. Oakland currently ranks last in the league in yards per game allowed at 414.7! It would obviously be great if Cutler could get back on the field, but if he does not, then I expect Clausen to have one of his better days as a pro. The Bears are just 7-11 SU/4-13-1 ATS the L3 years at home, including 0-5 SU/ATS as a dog of three points or less, so I'd say the market is due to "correct itself" a little bit here. 10* Chicago |
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10-04-15 | Carolina Panthers v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 | Top | 37-23 | Loss | -100 | 101 h 16 m | Show |
10* Tampa Bay (1:00 ET): The last time the Bucs won a home game was 2013. Carolina is 3-0, but so far they've beaten Jacksonville, Houston and New Orleans (w/o Drew Brees). My thinking is that the Panthers are ripe to be upset here as Tampa Bay wasn't necessarily beaten as badly as the scores & stats may say last week in Houston. Plus, Carolina failed to even cover against the Brees-less Saints last week at home while the Bucs actually went to New Orleans and beat the Saints outright (I had them!) w/ Brees in the lineup. For a team to lose 10 games in a row at home (Bucs' current streak) is pretty rare and Tampa Bay comes in with quadruple revenge after being swept by the Panthers each of the last two seasons. Can you say "just due?" Take the points. While Houston had twice as many first downs as Tampa Bay last week, it was the Bucs that actually led at the half (9-7) and were in not for three missed field goals and an extra point, things could have turned out a lot differently. Obviously, those 10 points that were "left on the table" wee the difference in the ballgame. For all the criticism he's taken thus far, I like how Jameis Winston wasn't afraid to throw the ball downfield against the Texans. He completed 53 percent of his pass attempts that traveled at least 15 yards w/ one INT (which comes w/ the territory). Honestly, Winston may be the best QB the Panthers have faced thus far, which speaks to just how phony their record really is. Their defense is w/o Charles Johnson, who went on IR with a hamstring injury. That should make life easier for Winston and company. Carolina's last two wins were both at home and by seven points or less against bad teams. Rarely, do they find themselves in the road favorite role. They did in Week 1 against Jacksonville, but that was just the second time it's happened in three seasons. Cam Newton is often asked to carry the load on offense and I would argue that Winston actually has much better talent surrounding him at the skill positions. The Bucs' offensive line also didn't give up a sack last week, even facing JJ Watt. The trouble came on third down where the team went just 1 for 12, but third down efficiency can often be volatile on a week-to-week basis. I do not believe that Carolina will be able to run the ball as effectively as Houston did on the Bucs a week ago. Bottom line is that this is a huge, division home game for the Bucs while at 3-0 w/ a bye on deck, Carolina is due for a letdown. 10* Tampa Bay |
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Bryan Power NFL Top Sides Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
09-15-16 | Jets v. Bills +1 | Top | 37-31 | Loss | -102 | 29 h 20 m | Show |
09-11-16 | Patriots +6.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 23-21 | Win | 100 | 55 h 53 m | Show |
09-11-16 | Vikings -3.5 v. Titans | Top | 25-16 | Win | 100 | 419 h 50 m | Show |
09-11-16 | Browns +6 v. Eagles | Top | 10-29 | Loss | -104 | 419 h 49 m | Show |
09-11-16 | Raiders v. Saints | Top | 35-34 | Loss | -115 | 419 h 49 m | Show |
09-11-16 | Chargers +7 v. Chiefs | Top | 27-33 | Win | 100 | 419 h 48 m | Show |
09-08-16 | Panthers v. Broncos +3 | Top | 20-21 | Win | 105 | 30 h 30 m | Show |
02-07-16 | Panthers v. Broncos +6 | Top | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 175 h 18 m | Show |
01-24-16 | Patriots -3 v. Broncos | Top | 18-20 | Loss | -108 | 78 h 30 m | Show |
01-17-16 | Steelers +8 v. Broncos | Top | 16-23 | Win | 100 | 23 h 35 m | Show |
01-17-16 | Seahawks +2.5 v. Panthers | Top | 24-31 | Loss | -100 | 99 h 4 m | Show |
01-16-16 | Packers +7 v. Cardinals | Top | 20-26 | Win | 100 | 76 h 51 m | Show |
01-16-16 | Chiefs v. Patriots -5 | Top | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 72 h 12 m | Show |
01-10-16 | Packers -1 v. Redskins | Top | 35-18 | Win | 100 | 100 h 48 m | Show |
01-10-16 | Seahawks v. Vikings +5 | Top | 10-9 | Win | 100 | 96 h 23 m | Show |
01-09-16 | Steelers v. Bengals +3 | Top | 18-16 | Win | 100 | 80 h 33 m | Show |
01-09-16 | Chiefs v. Texans +3.5 | Top | 30-0 | Loss | -113 | 76 h 54 m | Show |
01-03-16 | Vikings v. Packers -3 | Top | 20-13 | Loss | -119 | 55 h 46 m | Show |
01-03-16 | Seahawks +6.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 36-6 | Win | 100 | 51 h 34 m | Show |
01-03-16 | Bucs +10.5 v. Panthers | Top | 10-38 | Loss | -107 | 51 h 33 m | Show |
01-03-16 | Patriots v. Dolphins +10 | Top | 10-20 | Win | 100 | 47 h 21 m | Show |
01-03-16 | Steelers v. Browns +10.5 | Top | 28-12 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 20 m | Show |
01-03-16 | Jaguars +6.5 v. Texans | Top | 6-30 | Loss | -101 | 47 h 20 m | Show |
12-27-15 | Giants +6 v. Vikings | Top | 17-49 | Loss | -110 | 104 h 16 m | Show |
12-27-15 | Colts v. Dolphins -1 | Top | 18-12 | Loss | -110 | 97 h 48 m | Show |
12-27-15 | Cowboys v. Bills -6 | Top | 6-16 | Win | 100 | 97 h 48 m | Show |
12-27-15 | Panthers v. Falcons +7.5 | Top | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 97 h 47 m | Show |
12-27-15 | Browns +13 v. Chiefs | Top | 13-17 | Win | 100 | 97 h 46 m | Show |
12-20-15 | Broncos +6 v. Steelers | Top | 27-34 | Loss | -105 | 122 h 45 m | Show |
12-20-15 | Browns +15 v. Seahawks | Top | 13-30 | Loss | -102 | 72 h 4 m | Show |
12-20-15 | Panthers v. Giants +5 | Top | 38-35 | Win | 100 | 124 h 35 m | Show |
12-20-15 | Falcons +3 v. Jaguars | Top | 23-17 | Win | 109 | 124 h 35 m | Show |
12-20-15 | Titans +14 v. Patriots | Top | 16-33 | Loss | -104 | 124 h 35 m | Show |
12-14-15 | Giants -1 v. Dolphins | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 115 h 22 m | Show |
12-13-15 | Patriots v. Texans +3 | Top | 27-6 | Loss | -100 | 91 h 22 m | Show |
12-13-15 | Raiders +8.5 v. Broncos | Top | 15-12 | Win | 100 | 87 h 58 m | Show |
12-13-15 | 49ers v. Browns -1.5 | Top | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 84 h 54 m | Show |
12-13-15 | Chargers +10 v. Chiefs | Top | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 84 h 54 m | Show |
12-13-15 | Falcons +7.5 v. Panthers | Top | 0-38 | Loss | -110 | 84 h 53 m | Show |
12-13-15 | Lions v. Rams +1 | Top | 14-21 | Win | 100 | 84 h 53 m | Show |
12-07-15 | Cowboys +4 v. Redskins | Top | 19-16 | Win | 100 | 20 h 28 m | Show |
12-06-15 | Eagles +10 v. Patriots | Top | 35-28 | Win | 100 | 81 h 45 m | Show |
12-06-15 | Panthers v. Saints +7 | Top | 41-38 | Win | 100 | 81 h 45 m | Show |
12-06-15 | Bengals v. Browns +10 | Top | 37-3 | Loss | -120 | 77 h 22 m | Show |
12-06-15 | Falcons +2 v. Bucs | Top | 19-23 | Loss | -108 | 77 h 21 m | Show |
12-06-15 | Jaguars v. Titans -2.5 | Top | 39-42 | Win | 100 | 77 h 21 m | Show |
12-03-15 | Packers -3 v. Lions | Top | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
11-29-15 | Patriots v. Broncos +3 | Top | 24-30 | Win | 100 | 99 h 25 m | Show |
11-29-15 | Steelers +4 v. Seahawks | Top | 30-39 | Loss | -110 | 95 h 20 m | Show |
11-29-15 | Cardinals v. 49ers +11.5 | Top | 19-13 | Win | 100 | 48 h 34 m | Show |
11-29-15 | Vikings v. Falcons -1 | Top | 20-10 | Loss | -102 | 92 h 46 m | Show |
11-26-15 | Panthers v. Cowboys +2 | Top | 33-14 | Loss | -105 | 63 h 17 m | Show |
11-26-15 | Eagles v. Lions | Top | 14-45 | Loss | -110 | 59 h 17 m | Show |
11-22-15 | Bengals v. Cardinals -4 | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -110 | 108 h 52 m | Show |
11-22-15 | Chiefs v. Chargers +3 | Top | 33-3 | Loss | -106 | 99 h 56 m | Show |
11-22-15 | Rams v. Ravens -1 | Top | 13-16 | Win | 100 | 96 h 52 m | Show |
11-22-15 | Colts v. Falcons -5.5 | Top | 24-21 | Loss | -105 | 96 h 52 m | Show |
11-22-15 | Bucs v. Eagles -5.5 | Top | 45-17 | Loss | -106 | 96 h 51 m | Show |
11-19-15 | Titans +3 v. Jaguars | Top | 13-19 | Loss | -118 | 68 h 38 m | Show |
11-16-15 | Texans +11 v. Bengals | Top | 10-6 | Win | 100 | 20 h 55 m | Show |
11-15-15 | Patriots v. Giants +8.5 | Top | 27-26 | Win | 100 | 116 h 9 m | Show |
11-15-15 | Chiefs +7 v. Broncos | Top | 29-13 | Win | 100 | 116 h 8 m | Show |
11-15-15 | Lions +11.5 v. Packers | Top | 18-16 | Win | 100 | 113 h 45 m | Show |
11-15-15 | Saints v. Redskins +1.5 | Top | 14-47 | Win | 100 | 113 h 45 m | Show |
11-15-15 | Panthers v. Titans +5 | Top | 27-10 | Loss | -110 | 113 h 44 m | Show |
11-15-15 | Cowboys v. Bucs -1 | Top | 6-10 | Win | 100 | 113 h 44 m | Show |
11-12-15 | Bills v. Jets -2.5 | Top | 22-17 | Loss | -105 | 48 h 10 m | Show |
11-09-15 | Bears v. Chargers -4.5 | Top | 22-19 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 11 m | Show |
11-08-15 | Broncos v. Colts +5.5 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 48 h 52 m | Show |
11-08-15 | Raiders v. Steelers -4 | Top | 35-38 | Loss | -105 | 102 h 33 m | Show |
11-08-15 | Titans +8.5 v. Saints | Top | 34-28 | Win | 100 | 45 h 38 m | Show |
11-08-15 | Redskins +14.5 v. Patriots | Top | 10-27 | Loss | -115 | 45 h 37 m | Show |
11-05-15 | Browns +11 v. Bengals | Top | 10-31 | Loss | -105 | 37 h 59 m | Show |
11-02-15 | Colts +7 v. Panthers | Top | 26-29 | Win | 100 | 21 h 42 m | Show |
11-01-15 | Packers v. Broncos +3.5 | Top | 10-29 | Win | 100 | 46 h 19 m | Show |
11-01-15 | Giants +3.5 v. Saints | Top | 49-52 | Win | 100 | 102 h 14 m | Show |
11-01-15 | Chargers v. Ravens -3 | Top | 26-29 | Push | 0 | 102 h 14 m | Show |
11-01-15 | Titans +4.5 v. Texans | Top | 6-20 | Loss | -110 | 39 h 50 m | Show |
10-29-15 | Dolphins v. Patriots -8 | Top | 7-36 | Win | 100 | 37 h 40 m | Show |
10-26-15 | Baltimore Ravens +9.5 v. Arizona Cardinals | Top | 18-26 | Win | 100 | 13 h 5 m | Show |
10-25-15 | Philadelphia Eagles +3.5 v. Carolina Panthers | Top | 16-27 | Loss | -117 | 75 h 40 m | Show |
10-25-15 | NY Jets +9 v. New England Patriots | Top | 23-30 | Win | 100 | 67 h 10 m | Show |
10-25-15 | Pittsburgh Steelers v. Kansas City Chiefs -2 | Top | 13-23 | Win | 100 | 46 h 57 m | Show |
10-19-15 | NY Giants v. Philadelphia Eagles -5 | Top | 7-27 | Win | 100 | 19 h 19 m | Show |
10-18-15 | New England Patriots v. Indianapolis Colts +10 | Top | 34-27 | Win | 100 | 23 h 17 m | Show |
10-18-15 | Baltimore Ravens -2.5 v. San Francisco 49ers | Top | 20-25 | Loss | -108 | 122 h 56 m | Show |
10-18-15 | Cincinnati Bengals v. Buffalo Bills +3 | Top | 34-21 | Loss | -105 | 119 h 32 m | Show |
10-18-15 | Kansas City Chiefs +4 v. Minnesota Vikings | Top | 10-16 | Loss | -110 | 119 h 31 m | Show |
10-15-15 | Atlanta Falcons v. New Orleans Saints +3.5 | Top | 21-31 | Win | 100 | 68 h 4 m | Show |
10-12-15 | Pittsburgh Steelers v. San Diego Chargers -3.5 | Top | 24-20 | Loss | -103 | 20 h 50 m | Show |
10-11-15 | New England Patriots v. Dallas Cowboys +10 | Top | 30-6 | Loss | -125 | 114 h 59 m | Show |
10-11-15 | Washington Redskins +9 v. Atlanta Falcons | Top | 19-25 | Win | 100 | 133 h 49 m | Show |
10-11-15 | Cleveland Browns v. Baltimore Ravens -6 | Top | 33-30 | Loss | -108 | 133 h 49 m | Show |
10-11-15 | Buffalo Bills v. Tennessee Titans +3 | Top | 14-13 | Win | 100 | 111 h 35 m | Show |
10-11-15 | New Orleans Saints v. Philadelphia Eagles -4.5 | Top | 17-39 | Win | 100 | 111 h 34 m | Show |
10-05-15 | Detroit Lions +10.5 v. Seattle Seahawks | Top | 10-13 | Win | 100 | 20 h 1 m | Show |
10-04-15 | Dallas Cowboys v. New Orleans Saints -3 | Top | 20-26 | Win | 100 | 44 h 5 m | Show |
10-04-15 | St Louis Rams +7.5 v. Arizona Cardinals | Top | 24-22 | Win | 100 | 52 h 15 m | Show |
10-04-15 | Oakland Raiders v. Chicago Bears +3 | Top | 20-22 | Win | 100 | 101 h 16 m | Show |
10-04-15 | Carolina Panthers v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 | Top | 37-23 | Loss | -100 | 101 h 16 m | Show |