Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
10-27-19 | Bengals +14 v. Rams | Top | 10-24 | Push | 0 | 47 h 7 m | Show |
10* Cincinnati (1:00 ET): The Bengals are winless (0-7), but they are far from the worst team in this league. Four of their seven losses have been by six points or less. Things could have ended up a lot differently last week vs. Jacksonville were it not for four turnovers. Three of those were Andy Dalton interceptions, the first of which came when it was still a one-score game in the 4Q. The second was a pick-six that made it a two-score game. The third led to a FG. The Bengals won’t lose every game this season and while they might not win this one, they’ll stay within the number. Take the points in London. Yes, this is a London game. While a spread such as this might be justified if the game were being played in LA, it’s definitely too high for a neutral setting where anything can happen. The Rams certainly aren’t as dominant right now as they’ve been the previous two seasons. While off their biggest margin of victory this season (37-10 over Atlanta), the Rams are still just 4-3 and not blowing many teams out. Prior to last week, there only other double digit win came when New Orleans lost Drew Brees mid-game. QB Jared Goff hasn’t thrown more than 2 TD passes in any game this season. Cincinnati has covered the last five times they’ve been an underdog of seven or more points and are 3-1 ATS the L4 times they’ve been a double digit dog. While things may look grim in the first season under HC Zac Taylor, the team should stay motivated until they get a win. Anything can happen in a London game, so the Bengals have a better shot here than they would if it were a “true” road game. Taylor knows the Rams as he previously served on Sean McVay’s staff. The Bengals’ defense is a lot more suspect against the run than the pass, but the Rams are more of a passing team. 10* Cincinnati |
|||||||
10-20-19 | Eagles +3 v. Cowboys | Top | 10-37 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
8* Philadelphia (8:20 ET): Coming into the year, we projected the Eagles to win the NFC East. But after three weeks, that projection wasn’t looking so hot. Philadelphia was 1-2 and Dallas was 3-0. But two weeks later, the teams were tied. Both lost last week. While the Cowboys still maintain the better YTD point differential, that’s still a byproduct of playing what was the league’s easiest schedule the first three weeks. They faced the Eli Manning-led Giants, Washington and Miami. We’re still confident in Philly winning this division and obviously so is their coach (more on that later). Take the points. Dallas has actually been favored in every game this year. I believe the Patriots and Chiefs are the only other teams that can say that. But after opening w/ that easy three-game stretch, they’ve lost three in a row outright, including an embarrassing setback last week at the hands of the Jets. The Jets were our Underdog POWER-SHOCKER, but even we were surprised at the relative ease with which they won that game (trailed by as many as 18!). The week prior saw the Cowboys fall behind the Packers by 28 points. Now they should be getting back both starting tackles along the O-line. However, their top two receivers are now both banged up. Eagles’ HC Doug Pederson has all but guaranteed a victory this week. HIs team is off a terrible showing in Minnesota where they lost 38-20. But the Vikings happen to be a very good team. This is a triple revenge spot for the Eagles, who lost both meetings last season and the final one in 2017. Road underdogs have been incredible this NFL season, covering nearly two-thirds of the time, and division games have often been the best spot to take them. Furthermore, Dallas is just 2-5 ATS the L7 times it has been favored by four points or less. 8* Philadelphia |
|||||||
10-20-19 | Ravens +3 v. Seahawks | Top | 30-16 | Win | 100 | 42 h 9 m | Show |
10* Baltimore (4:25 ET): I don’t think we’re alone in being surprised at Seattle’s 5-1 SU record. Yes, this was a playoff team last year. But after a 1st round exit, it “felt” like they would be taking a step back. The defense, once the identity of the franchise, is no longer what it once was. However, Russell Wilson is playing the best football of his career. Wilson has had a passer rating of 100+ in all six games w/ a 14-0 TD-INT ratio. He’s completing 73% of his passes at 9.0 YPA. However, I can’t shake the feeling that the Seahawks have been a bit lucky this year. All but one win, over Arizona, has been by four points or less. Take the points with Baltimore here. Wilson isn’t the only QB gaining headlines in this matchup. The Ravens’ Lamar Jackson is proving he’s no one-year wonder. He has a completion percentage and YPA similar to Wilson. He’s also obviously a bigger running threat. Last week, Jackson ran for 152 yards (against the Bengals). That was in addition to 236 yds passing. Baltimore seems to have a pretty clear path to win a weak AFC North right now. Since beating Miami 59-10 in the opener, they’ve actually been outscored by 5 points. They too (like Seattle) have had lots of close wins. But note they did outgain the Bengals almost 2:1 last week before giving up a garbage time TD. Neither team’s defense is what it used to be. But Seattle is giving up 6.5 yards per play. They had to come from behind to beat a sloppy Cleveland team last week. Baltimore has gone five straight games w/o covering, but this will be just the 2nd time all season that they have been an underdog. They are 11-5 ATS L16 road games. One factor tough to quantify is this will be Earl Thomas’ return to Seattle. Expect the Ravens’ safety to come out highly motivated and play well. At the end of the day, I just can’t see Seattle going to 6-1. 10* Baltimore |
|||||||
10-20-19 | Vikings -1 v. Lions | Top | 42-30 | Win | 100 | 39 h 45 m | Show |
8* Minnesota (1:00 ET): Many would argue that the Lions were “robbed” Monday night. Two BAD penalties went against them late in a 23-22 loss to the Packers. But settling for five field goals was the real culprit in a game where they were actually outgained 447-299. Refs or no refs, you can’t lose a game where you were +3 in turnovers, even w/ that difference in total yardage. This week, Detroit hosts a Minnesota team hungry for a divisional road win after losing at both Chicago and Green Bay. The Vikings are the better team here and we’ll lay the short number While they did lose at both Soldier and Lambeau Fields, the Vikings’ other four games have all been wins by 2 TD’s or more. They’ve been an excellent home team thus far, going 3-0 and winning by an average of 18 PPG. They too should have beaten the Packers as they outgained them by a huge margin - at least on a per play basis (7.4 to 4.8!) - in a Week 2 meeting in GB. But unlike the Lions, Minnesota was done in by a -3 TO differential against the Pack. The Vikings are 4-0 SU/ATS as favorites this year and 19-8 ATS L27 in the role (22-5 SU). So when the oddmakers like Mike Zimmer’s team, they often come through. While a lot of criticism is thrown Kirk Cousins’ way, one thing the Vikings do very well is run the ball. They are #3 in the league at 159 YPG. On the flip side, the defense is very good at stopping the run, allowing just 91 YPG. On a per play basis, Minnesota has one of the top yardage differentials in the league right now. Most power rating systems consider this one of the top five teams in the league, including ours. On a short week and off a brutal loss, we don’t see Detroit being able to hang here. The Vikings took both meetings LY, holding the Lions to just nine points in both games. 8* Minnesota |
|||||||
10-20-19 | Rams v. Falcons +3 | Top | 37-10 | Loss | -105 | 39 h 45 m | Show |
8* Atlanta (1:00 ET): Two teams desperate for a win meet this week in Atlanta. It appears as if the old “Super Bowl loser’s curse” has afflicted the Rams, who opened 3-0, but are now 3-3. The Falcons are 1-5 SU after a BRUTAL one-point loss LW in Arizona, leaving HC Dan Quinn’s future very much in doubt. The big story coming into this game will be the new-look Rams secondary, which will have THREE new starters, including Jalen Ramsey, who was acquired in a trade w/ Jacksonville. Getting a player like Ramsey is huge, but it’s going to take awhile for this new secondary to gel. Take the points w/ an Atlanta team that is at home and desperate. Despite the Falcons’ poor start, QB Matt Ryan actually leads the league w/ 15 TD passes and has thrown for 300+ yards in every game. If he were able to throw for 300+ against this new Rams secondary, he’d be the first QB in NFL history to open a season w/ seven straight 300+ yd games. We think he can do it. The problem for Atlanta has been turnovers, though they’ve cut down on them in recent weeks. Remember this Rams’ defense gave up 55 pts to Tampa Bay a few weeks ago. Atlanta has scored 65 pts the L2 wks. They’ll put plenty of points on the board here. Last week saw the Falcons lose when veteran kicker Matt Bryant missed what would have been the game-tying XP. The week prior saw them fall apart late in Houston as that 53-32 final was actually a one score game at the two-minute warning! The Rams were totally outclassed by the 49ers last week, losing 20-7 at home as their high-powered offense was held to 165 total yards. We told you to take the 49ers and will fade the Rams again here. 8* Atlanta |
|||||||
10-17-19 | Chiefs v. Broncos +3.5 | Top | 30-6 | Loss | -120 | 48 h 34 m | Show |
10* Denver (8:20 ET): All of a sudden, the Chiefs look vulnerable as they've dropped B2B games. In both losses the offense was held below 26 points, which was a threshold they had crossed in EVERY game with Patrick Mahomes as the starting QB. You have to wonder if a sprained ankle Mahomes suffered back in Week 1 is starting to be a contributing factor to the "offensive decline." The Colts held the Chiefs to just 13 points in a pretty shocking upset two weeks ago while Mahomes and company (didn't have the ball much in the 2H) could only manage 24 in a loss LW to the Texans. Both losses were at home. The "world" figures to be on KC here. But the Broncos are going to be just as motivated, if not more so, trying to snap a seven-game losing skid in this AFC West rivalry. Take the points. Denver's season has taken the exact opposite trajectory of KC's. They started w/ four straight losses, but have since won B2B games for 1st year HC Vic Fangio. We were on the first, calling it a "must-win" against the Chargers and Denver delivered w/ a 20-13 upset as 6.5-point dogs. Last week was a 16-0 shutout of the Titans as the defense stepped up big again. The Broncos have played better than you might think for a team that started 0-4. They've led going into the fourth quarter each of the last three weeks and two of their four losses came on last second FG's at home. Their record easily could be 4-2 right now. Note the Broncos have outgained opponents by almost 30 YPG this year. After forcing zero turnovers the first four weeks, the defense has SIX the last two. They've also allowed the 4th fewest YPG (307.8) on the year and have scored the same number of points that they have allowed While the ankle injury may have originally occurred in Week 1, Mahomes definitely re-aggravated it in the game vs. Indianapolis two weeks ago. The Chiefs' offense hasn't looked the same since. The offensive line has struggled both in the run game and pass protection. Mahomes' completion percentage the L2 weeks were his two lowest of the season. Then there is the issue of the Chiefs' defense, which wasn't good last year and has now given up 180+ yards rushing four straight games. To beat Kansas City, you need to own the line of scrimmage (like Indy did) and we think Denver is capable of doing just that. The L3 seasons have seen the Broncos go a perfect 4-0 ATS as a home dog of three points or less w/ three outright wins. 10* Denver |
|||||||
10-14-19 | Lions v. Packers -3.5 | Top | 22-23 | Loss | -101 | 23 h 28 m | Show |
10* Green Bay (8:20 ET): Believe it or not, the Lions have won and covered all four games vs. the Packers the L2 seasons. Of course, those weren't particularly great years for Green Bay. Two years ago, Aaron Rodgers missed a large chunk of the season and the team went just 7-9 SU. Last year proved to be the swan song for former HC Mike McCarthy who was shown the door after a 6-9-1 SU finish, which was one less win than the previous year despite having Rodgers the entire time. But 2019 just "felt" like it might be different. With Matt LaFleur now in charge, we were relatively high on the Packers coming into the season and sure enough, they've raced out to a 4-1 SU start and lead the NFC North. They've already picked up key division wins over the Bears and Vikings. Now they face the Lions, who are a surprising 2-1-1 and off a bye. We don't have any doubt who the better team is here. Some nice line value now thanks to the move. Lay the short number. The week before the bye saw the Lions lose a tough one to the Chiefs, 34-30. Maybe that's why some bettors seem interested in them this week. But despite playing KC tough for four quarters, we still have our doubts about the long-term success of this Detroit team. The defense is giving up over 400 YPG, which is something that only five other teams can say. They really struggle against the pass, giving up 280.8 YPG through the air, which ranks 30th and could obviously be a problem facing the likes of Rodgers, who has had some big MNF games in the past. Rodgers comes into tonight w/ a streak of four straight MNF games w/ 300+ yards passing. A big reason the Lions struggle against the pass is they don't rush the QB all that well. Both teams have played mostly close games. In fact, all four Detroit games have been decided by 4 pts or less. But Green Bay's performance last week was more impressive than anything Detroit has done this season. The Packers led Dallas by as many as 28 as they moved to 4-1 SU and ATS. They ended up beating the Cowboys by 10. Green Bay's only loss this year was their last home game, a Thursday night matchup w/ Philadelphia where the offense still gained nearly 500 total yards. Where the spread is now, oddsmakers are basically saying these teams are even w/ the Pack getting credit for being at home. We'd have GB favored by 3.5 on a neutral field, so there's definitely value taking them at this number at Lambeau. 10* Green Bay |
|||||||
10-13-19 | Steelers +7 v. Chargers | Top | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 9 h 0 m | Show |
8* Pittsburgh (8:20 ET): It's been nothing short of a disastrous start to the season for the Steelers, who are down to their third string QB Devlin Hodges, an undrafted player from a FCS school It's not like Hodges didn't succeed in College. He was actually the Player of the Year in 2018 as he finished his four-year career at Samford w/ the most passing yards in FCS history! Don't be surprised if the Steelers' offense actually ends up performing better with Hodges operating under center. Mason Rudolph obviously wasn't the answer, yet I thought the Black & Gold actually performed admirably in LW's 26-23 OT loss to Baltimore. That was the Steelers' third loss by four points or less. So they've been a competitive team. Take the points Sunday night. We faded the Chargers last week as well. They were laying a similar spread to winless Denver and lost outright, 20-13. The offense turned the ball over three times and gained only 246 total yards. While Philip Rivers will be making his 214th consecutive start (213 more than Hodges) and RB Melvin Gordon is back, the Chargers are far from full strength right now. TE Hunter Henry might return. But four of the five offensive lineman have three or less years experience and there's a new center. There are just a ton of injuries on both sides of the ball for this team. Turnovers have been a problem as they have 2+ in three of five games. The Chargers' only win in regulation this year came against Miami. With injuries to the receivers, Rivers averaged just 4.4 yards per completion last week. Again, the Miami game was the only one where the LA offense scored more than 24 pts in regulation. So they're a shaky favorite in this spot. Pittsburgh's defense has allowed just 175 and 277 total yards the last two games. Hodges is obviously a total Wild Card entering this game, but we're willing to bank he's no liability. Incredibly, QB's making their first career start this year are a perfect 7-0 ATS! The Steelers are 6-1-1 ATS as an underdog the L2 seasons and it's not like the Chargers have any kind of real homefield advantage. They are just 6-12-1 ATS at home since returning to LA. 8* Pittsburgh |
|||||||
10-13-19 | Cowboys v. Jets +8 | Top | 22-24 | Win | 100 | 44 h 5 m | Show |
8* NY Jets (4:25 ET): Our preseason projection on the Jets has been downgraded severely, but the main culprit for the team's poor play these first four games has obviously been the QB situation. That changes this week w/ the return of Sam Darnold. The 2nd year signal caller has missed the L3 games w/ mono and the results have been nothing short of disastrous. The Jets have been outscored 84-23 while scoring just ONE offensive touchdown! The one game Darnold did start was the opener vs. Buffalo and that's a game the Jets "should have" won (lost by 1) as they led 16-0 and forced four turnovers. They may not win this week, but Darnold will have them competitive. Take the points. Things were looking great for Dallas through three weeks as they opened the season 3-0. But while the offense was putting up nice looking numbers, that had just as much to do w/ whom they were facing. It was the Eli Manning-led Giants, Washington and Miami. The latter two both remain winless and are a combined 0-9 SU. Since then, the Cowboys have suffered B2B upsets at the hands of New Orleans and Green Bay. The offense scored only 10 pts in New Orleans and then turned it over three times LW vs. Green Bay. Even though it ended up being a 31-24 final, the Cowboys initially trailed the Packers 31-3. It's hard to win in this league by more than a TD on the road. We're willing to bank Dallas fails to do so here. Darnold may not be an All-Pro, but the upgrade from third-stringer Luke Falk is massing. Remember that backup Trevor Siemian broke his leg in the second game. The two games Falk started - the Jets gained just 233 yards total! RB Le'Veon Bell was rendered a non-factor as opposing defenses did not have to fear the pass. With Darnold back, that changes. On defense, the Jets are obviously going to have to be focused on stopping the run as they get set to face Ezekiel Elliot. Fortunately, they are giving up just 3.4 yards per carry and 87 yds rushing per game. The Jets won't lose 'em all this year, as with Darnold this projected to be a competitive team. 8* NY Jets |
|||||||
10-13-19 | Titans +2.5 v. Broncos | Top | 0-16 | Loss | -117 | 44 h 4 m | Show |
8* Tennessee (4:25 ET): Picking Titans' games have been a challenge this year, but we've tried 'em all - to mixed results. The one constant has been the underdog winning all five games outright. Last week was not a good result for the Titans or us as they lost outright as home favorites to Buffalo. Facing a very good Bills' defense, Tennessee simply could not get anything going on offense as they gained only 252 yards in a 14-7 loss. But key was missing FOUR field goals. Kicker Cario Santos was quickly jettisoned after the loss and replaced ironically by Cody Parkey, who gained infamy for his own poor kicking effort in last year's playoffs w/ the Bears. Despite what happened last week, Tennessee is still a pretty good team and should not be getting points against 1-win Denver. The Broncos got their first win under HC Vic Fangio last week, beating the Chargers on the road 20-13. We took them as underdogs, noting it was probably time for them to "get off the schnide" and that's what happened as they held on after a fast start. It was 14-0 after the 1st quarter and three Chargers turnovers definitely aided in the upset win. But we'd remain leery of Denver as a favorite, a role which they've been in twice and lost both games outright. Joe Flacco is definitely not the long-term answer at QB, nor do we think he's a good short-term option either. Look for the Broncos offense to struggle here against a top five scoring defense. The last time Tennessee were road dogs, we grabbed them and they turned in a dominant effort at Atlanta, winning that game 24-10. They are 2-0 SU/ATS as road dogs having also won the season opener in Cleveland. The Tennessee offense hasn't been great so far, but they don't turn the ball over and Denver's secondary continues to be banged up. The Titans have turned it over just once, tying a NFL record through five games. Denver's defense hadn't forced any turnovers prior to last week. Turnovers can certainly be a fluent situation, but history suggests the Broncos won't win that battle. They more than likely don't win this game either. The last three seasons have seen Denver go 4-13 ATS as a favorite including 0-5 as home chalk of three points or less. Take the points. 8* Tennessee |
|||||||
10-13-19 | 49ers +3 v. Rams | Top | 20-7 | Win | 101 | 28 h 46 m | Show |
10* San Francisco (4:05 ET): The situation may not favor the 49ers here as they are coming off a Monday Night game and the Rams played last Thursday. But we believe them to be better team this year. Before you go accusing us of being "prisoners of the moment," note we were high on this 49ers team from the start. Back in Week 2, we took them in Cincinnati and told you to expect a surprisingly good season. They are now one of only two unbeatens left (Patriots) and ranked #2 overall in our power ratings. Take the points here as the Niners look to make another "statement." While the 49ers are ascending, the Rams look to be regressing. Last year's Super Bowl losers started 3-0 but have subsequently lost two straight games while giving up 85 points. The 55-40 loss to Tampa Bay (as 9-pt home favorites) was the real eye-opener. Note San Francisco held the Bucs to only 17 points (on the road) in an opening week victory. Last Thursday, the Rams lost 30-29 up in Seattle in a hard-fought game. Something you need to continue monitoring is the health of RB Todd Gurley. Gurley was effective in the 1st half last week when the Rams had the lead. But then he (again) vanished in the 2nd half as the game got away. Health is a concern and Gurley is listed as doubtful this week. On the defensive side of the ball, CB Aqib Talib is out. Something we want to make clear is that this potential "changing of the guard" in the NFC West is something we saw coming. All the metrics indicated across the board improvement for San Francisco this year. One was turnover differential Their defense intercepted only TWO passes the entire 2018 season. They've already intercepted SEVEN this year (in just 4 games!), which is tied for 2nd most in the league. Meanwhile, the Rams were lucky to be 6-1 SU in games decided by 7 pts or less in 2018. Last year, the 49ers defense gave up 88 points in two games against the Rams. That same defense has yet to allow more than 320 yards in a game this season. On offense, SF is battling a couple key injuries of their own (expect TE George Kittle to play). But they still have the top rushing attack in the league (over 200 YPG) w/ three different backs averaging at least 5.5 YPG. Since 2003, teams that are 4-0 SU or better and getting points have gone 15-8-1 ATS including four straight covers. 10* San Francisco |
|||||||
10-13-19 | Saints v. Jaguars -1 | Top | 13-6 | Loss | -120 | 41 h 40 m | Show |
10* Jacksonville (1:00 ET): Teddy Bridgewater's chances of earning a big payday as a starter in this league have probably passed. But he's definitely earned a nice ROI for anyone that's consistently bet him when he does start. Bridgewater's career ATS record is now 26-7 as a starting QB in the NFL, the best such mark EVER (15 starts min). That includes 3-0 ATS w/ the Saints this year as he's guided the team to "upsets" over Seattle and Dallas, then cover as chalk LW vs. Tampa Bay. It's clear that the oddsmakers adjusted too much w/ the Saints in the wake of the Drew Brees injury. But we think they've now "caught up" to them in a spot that screams "LOSS." All four of the Saints' wins this year have been by seven points or less, so despite Brees being hurt, they've been a bit lucky. Jacksonville has also had to turn to a backup QB this year, although in their case no one is complaining. Admittedly, when their big free agent signing Nick Foles (former Super Bowl MVP) went down in Week 1, there was a collective "groan" from the fanbase. But Gardner Minshew II has come from relative obscurity to become the new face of the franchise. The Jaguars might only be 2-2 SU w/ Minshew at the helm, but consider for a moment they've been an underdog in every game. This week will mark the 1st time all year that the Jags have been favored. It can be argued that they played well enough to win last week against Carolina as the offense gained over 500 yards. But a -3 turnover margin was too much to overcome as was Christian McCaffery's 237 yds from scrimmage. Brees may not be the only key absence for New Orleans this week. RB Alvin Kamara is now listed as questionable. Him not playing would be quite the significant development. An ankle injury kept Kamara out of practice Friday, so he won't be 100% regardless. He's been held under 70 yds rushing four straight games anyway. Jalen Ramsey may be out for Jacksonville, but they're used to that now. Two things Jacksonville needs to do here. Feed Leonard Fournette (333 yds L2 games) and take care of the football. Do that and they'll drop the Saints to 2-5 SU/ATS their L7 as a road dog of 3 pts or less. It's time for the Bridgewater-led Saints to drop one. 10* Jacksonville |
|||||||
10-10-19 | Giants v. Patriots -16.5 | Top | 14-35 | Win | 100 | 27 h 28 m | Show |
10* New England (8:20 ET): The Giants have covered five straight against the Patriots, all as underdogs, including a couple of very famous Super Bowl upsets. Also, the underdog is a perfect 5-0 ATS on Thursday Night Football this year. But that's pretty much all the G-Men have going for them heading into this week's clash in Foxboro. It's just another year where New England is pacing the league. Right now, they're 5-0 and outscoring opponents by more than 20 points per game. Only one of those five games was decided by less than 16 points and it was on the road against a Buffalo team that has a very good defense. Our projections have the Patriots winning this game by three touchdowns. There had been a growing sense of optimism in the Giants' locker room after rookie Daniel Jones replaced the washed-up Eli Manning and led the team to two victories. The first was a huge comeback against Tampa Bay. Then a 24-3 win over the lousy Redskins. But then the G-Men ran into Minnesota last week and suffered an 18-point loss (28-10) at home. Jones wasn't very good against the Vikings, throwing for just 182 yards, and the team was outgained by more than a 2:1 margin (490-211). A big problem for Jones this week is that he's going to be w/o RB Saquon Barkley, Barkley's backup Wayne Gallman, WR Sterling Shepard and TE Evan Engram. They figure to REALLY struggle to move the ball in this contest. A short week doesn't help. Now that you're done reading the injury list for the Giants, let me now remind you that they are facing the Patriots here! The New England defense didn't even give up a touchdown until the 4th game and has allowed only two the entire season. Bill Belichick has a history of making rookie QB's look bad and Jones is likely to be the latest installment of that trend. The Patriots have a huge edge defensively in this game, not just because of their own exploits but also b/c of the Giants' ineptitude on that side of the ball. While the Pats allow just 238.4 YPG on 4.4 yards per play, the Giants allow 409 YPG on 6.8 YPP. This could easily turn into a 30-0 type game. 10* New England |
|||||||
10-06-19 | Broncos +7 v. Chargers | Top | 20-13 | Win | 100 | 27 h 35 m | Show |
9* Denver (4:05 ET): The Broncos' defense has yet to force a turnover, ranks near the bottom of the league in sacks and just loss DE Bradley Chubb to a season-ending ACL injury. Not the start defensive wizard Vic Fangio was looking for in his first head coaching gig in the league. Denver is 0-4 despite being competitive in all four games. While one of four 0-4 teams in the league right now, the Broncos are definitely better than the other three and better than their record. They get another chance at giving Fangio his first win this week as they visit the Chargers. This is a spot where we want to take the points as the Chargers have been hit even harder by injuries and aren't the same team they were a season ago. The Chargers are off a 30-10 win, but it came against Miami, so that doesn't hold much water. RB Melvin Gordon is set to return this week, but as alluded to above, the real story in LA is who WON'T be on the field for the Chargers. Already the team has had to place 10 players on IR, three of them starters. (The tight end position has been hit the hardest). In addition, there are four more starters that aren't 100% and could have to miss this game. Two are starting receivers, so Philip Rivers may not have anyone to throw to Sunday. On the defensive side of the ball, we know DE Melvin Ingram is out. Other than Miami, we just don't see this Chargers team being able to beat any opponent by any kind of margin right now. The Broncos are not only 0-4 SU, but they've lost eight straight going back to last season. But under Fangio, they've at least been competitive. Two of the losses have come by two points, including last week's to Jacksonville, which was decided on a last second field goal. It was the 2nd time this year Denver lost on the final play. They've actually gained the same number of total yards as their four opponents. Honestly, we give them a great shot at the outright upset here. The road team did win both meetings last season. We "buy low" on a Broncos team that is "due" for some good luck. 9* Denver |
|||||||
10-06-19 | Bills v. Titans -2.5 | Top | 14-7 | Loss | -116 | 26 h 48 m | Show |
10* Tennessee (1:00 ET): The Bills may very well end up being a vastly improved team, at least record-wise, by season's end. But one side of the ball can only carry you so far. For the Bills, that one side of the ball is a defense that just held the Patriots to 16 points (no TD's after 1st quarter) and 224 total yards. But offense is a real concern here w/ second year QB Josh Allen unlikely to play this week. His replacement is Matt Barkley and if that sounds bad, it should look even worse. As much as the drafting of Allen was questioned, the dropoff to Barkley is pretty severe. The Bills didn't score after Allen left last week's game w/ a concussion. Even if Allen were to play this week, there's the question of whether or not he's 100% and the truth of the matter is we still aren't sold on him as he had three interceptions last week and a completion percentage below 50%. Now lets talk about Tennessee. While we faded them in Week 3 (lost outright in Jacksonville), we were all aboard their train last week as they went into Atlanta and upset the Falcons 24-10. They dominated from the outset as well w/ Marcus Mariota throwing three 1st Half TD passes. It didn't even matter that they didn't score a single point after halftime. That was Matt Ryan and the Falcons offense they held in check too. Stopping this Bills offense - whether it's Allen or Barkley at the helm - will be much easier. This Titans defense is #4 in the league in scoring (one spot higher than the Bills) and will be up against a Bills offense averaging only 19.0 PPG. The strength of the Bills offense is running the ball, but the problem w/ that is the Titans have done a great job at stopping the run the L2 wks, allowing just 88 and 58 yards to the Jags and Falcons respectively. This is an addition to having a pass defense whose numbers looked great before Ryan attempted 53 passes against them last week. Another huge edge for the Titans here is that they take very good care of the football (just one turnover). Buffalo, on the other hand, already has two games w/ four TO's. No matter who the Bills QB is here, we have the Titans winning this game by at least a touchdown. Another key is the Titans offensive line will be bolstered by the return of Taylor Lewan, who was suspended the first four games. 10* Tennessee |
|||||||
10-06-19 | Jets +15.5 v. Eagles | Top | 6-31 | Loss | -120 | 26 h 47 m | Show |
10* NY Jets (1:00 ET): With a 30-14 loss to the Patriots two weeks ago, Jets HC Adam Gase has now lost nearly one-third of the games in his coaching career (17 of 52) by at least two touchdowns. His current team is 0-3, certainly not the start that they - or I - had imagined. The Jets were on my "most improved" list for 2019, but after blowing a 16-0 lead against Buffalo in Week 1, that quickly went out the window. QB health has been a major issue here as Sam Darnold has missed the L2 games w/ mono. His backup, Trevor Siemian, is out for the year w/ a broken ankle. That left Luke Falk, a former practice squad player, to start the third game. While it was a 16-point loss to New England, the Jets did cover the number (were +23) despite not even scoring an offensive touchdown (scored one on defense & special teams). If this all sounds rough to you, it is. But it's not dire. The Jets had their bye last week. While having a bye week that early in the season isn't always ideal, it probably was for the Jets as it allowed Falk to get some much needed reps for the Week 5 opponent, Philadelphia. There's no sugarcoating how bad the Jets offense looked against the Patriots. But that was to be expected going against one of the top defenses in the league, with a third string QB, on a short week no less (Jets had just played on MNF). Now, with added rest, they are getting to face an Eagles defense that is a little suspect. While the Eagles did win last Thursday (we had 'em), upsetting the Packers in Green Bay, they did give up 6.6 yards per play. In fact, the Eagles were outagined by almost a full yard per play in that outright win last Thursday. It was a much needed win (why we backed them plus the points!) after starting 1-2 w/ a home loss to the Lions. But they did get outgained by over 150 yards. Green Bay had a chance to tie late, but Aaron Rodgers was picked off in the end zone. That was one of two critical Packers' turnovers in the game, the first leading to an easy score by the Eagles (got the ball in the red zone). I'm not saying that the Jets are gonna win this game, but they most likely won't. But it's a big spread for a desperate team coming off a bye. Winless teams playing on the road, off a bye, are on a 17-7 ATS run. We'd have the spread closer to 10 points. While Falk only threw for 98 yards in his debut, Carson Wentz threw for only 160 last week. Wentz is just 1-7 ATS his L8 home games. Take the points. 10* NY Jets |
|||||||
10-06-19 | Bucs +3 v. Saints | Top | 24-31 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 40 m | Show |
8* Tampa Bay (1:00 ET): Oddsmakers clearly overadjusted for the Drew Brees injury as the Saints are 2-0 (SU and ATS) as underdogs with Teddy Bridgewater as the starting QB. Maybe we shouldn't be surprised. Bridgewater is now 25-7 ATS as a starter, the best such mark for any QB w/ at least 15 career starts. But now he's a favorite for the first time this year. He and the Saints will be facing a Bucs team that is not only vastly improved on BOTH sides of the ball, but has also already pulled two outright upsets on the road. The Bucs could easily be 3-1 had it not been for blowing a DD lead against the Giants two weeks ago. They could be 4-0 had it not been a slew of turnovers in the opener vs. SF. Take the points. While the Saints are 2-0 SU/ATS with Bridgewater starting, by no means have they been dominant. In fact, they were outgained 514-265 by Seattle, needing multiple non-offensive TD's (1 punt return, 1 fumble return) to win 33-27. We had them as our *10* Game of the Month last week as a rare home dog against the undefeated Cowboys. They won that game 12-10 despite not scoring a single TD. So with Bridgewater starting, the Saints have managed just three offensive TD's in two games, one of which started inside the opponent's 30-yard line. Bridgewater has failed to throw for even 200 yards in either game. Anything close to a similar offensive effort will obviously not get it done as a favorite. The Bucs clearly didn't have any offensive issues last week as they hung 55 in a shocking upset of the Rams. QB Jameis Winston has gone over 350 yards passing in B2B games. While the numbers from the last five quarters may indicate something different, the defense has also gotten better w/ Todd Bowles as the coordinator. They've been particularly effective at stopping the run where they allow just 59 yards per game on 2.9 yards per carry. That's #1 in the league! The underdog has won all four Tampa Bay games this year and we'll look for that trend to continue. They won here in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome last season. 8* Tampa Bay |
|||||||
09-30-19 | Bengals v. Steelers -3 | Top | 3-27 | Win | 100 | 33 h 60 m | Show |
10* Pittsburgh (8:15 ET): A battle of 0-3 teams is certainly not what the ESPN brass had expected here, at least certainly not from the Pittsburgh side of things. But the Steelers are definitely reeling in the wake of Ben Roethlisberger’s season ending injury. Ironically though, the only game Big Ben will end up starting and finishing this year was the team’s worst to date, a 33-3 loss to the Patriots. Losses the last two weeks have both been close, coming by a total of six points. While the total yardage count from last week indicates the Black & Gold were outplayed rather drastically by the 49ers, we expect them to bounce back this week. A loss to the Bengals would certainly be a new low in the Steel City. Lay the points. The Bengals have also suffered two close losses to start the year, both of theirs coming on the road. They lost by only 1 at Seattle and then by just 4 LW in Buffalo. In between, they were smashed at home by San Francisco, losing 41-13 while giving up 572 yards in the process. Unlike with Pittsburgh, Cincinnati was not expected to be good this year. They were the consensus choice for last place in the AFC North and that’s where we still see them. While they’ve fought hard in the first two road games, that doesn’t necessarily mean they will this third time around. The Steelers have dominated this division rivalry, beating the Bengals eight straight times and 11 of the last 12. Getting to face Mason Rudolph instead of Big Ben this time, the Bengals probably feel that “this time could be different.” But they remain one of the very worst teams in the league. We’ve got this spread at closer to a touchdown, placing a lot of value on Pittsburgh at home. The Steelers have won 10 of their previous 11 division games and are 17-9 SU the L26 times they were favored. The number is too low here. 10* Pittsburgh |
|||||||
09-29-19 | Cowboys v. Saints +3 | Top | 10-12 | Win | 100 | 50 h 5 m | Show |
10* New Orleans (8:20 ET): The Saints as a home underdog? Yes, please! Obviously, we are aware of the Drew Brees injury keeping him out of this game, but that didn't stop New Orleans from going to Seattle last week and winning 33-27 as a 5.5-point underdog. It is very rare to find the Saints getting points at the Mercedes Benz Superdome as it's only happened eight times since 2010. They've gone 6-2 ATS in those games, winning five of them outright. While it's the Brees injury that's largely responsible for this line, there's also a growing amount of respect for Dallas in the marketplace, something that we're not sure whether or not we share in. While the Cowboys are 3-0 SU/ATS, they've beaten the Giants, Redskins and Dolphins, all of whom are bottom five teams. Take the points here. These teams met last year, in primetime, and the Cowboys shockingly handled the Saints. We were on Dallas in that Thursday night game, as 7.5-point home underdogs, and they won 13-10. It was a remarkable defensive effort against Drew Brees, but this time it's Teddy Bridgewater that's the Saints QB and the game is in New Orleans. We would be foolish to suggest that the Saints are better long-term w/ Bridgewater at the helm opposed to Brees, but it's not as if the former can play any worse than Brees did in LY's meeting. Brees was held to 127 yards passing in that game. The Saints still only lost by three. Now, exactly nine months later, they get their shot at revenge and it's been noted "in the building" just how much the Saints remember LY's game. The Cowboys, traditionally, have not been a good favorite under Jason Garrett. They have covered all three games as chalk this year, but again, you have to consider the opponents. The bottom line is that Dallas SHOULD be 3-0 entering this game. But they should not be the betting favorite. We saw last week the oddsmakers severely underestimated some of the backup QB's being called into duty as they went 6-0 ATS, 5-1 SU and the only SU loss was Pittsburgh, by four points, in a game they probably should have won. Bridgewater, who has been a starter before, is an incredible 13-2 ATS when taking points. That's the best ATS record for any QB as an underdog in the Super Bowl era. He's 24-7 ATS overall as a starter. The Saints are being grossly underestimated in this spot as it's a primetime game at home. 10* New Orleans |
|||||||
09-29-19 | Vikings +1.5 v. Bears | Top | 6-16 | Loss | -108 | 6 h 41 m | Show |
8* Minnesota (4:25 ET): Note - due to the late nature of this pick (being released late A.M. Sunday), analysis will be more brief than usual. Chicago and Minnesota share 2-1 records, but as we always harp on, won-loss records are not always created the same. Chicago’s two wins this year have come against Denver and Washington, two teams that are a combined 0-6. They were fortunate to win in Denver and the Redskins are a complete dumpster fire right now, a team whose defense is so bad that we called for Mitchell Trubisky and the Bears offense to get on track Monday night. (Had the Over). But that win on MNF didn’t really do much for our overall view on the Bears, who aren’t going to be as successful as they were last year. Minnesota has dominated in its two wins, racing out to 21-0 leads against Atlanta and Oakland. Both of those games came at home, but even on the road the Vikings SHOULD have beaten the Packers. They outgained Green Bay 7.4 to 4.8 on a per play basis, only to be foiled by a couple of egregious and ill-timed Kirk Cousins turnovers. The Vikes should be able to lean on their defense in this game, however. They are tied for 5th in scoring (15.7 PPG allowed) and face a Bears offense that has yet to gain 300 total yards in any game. As far as Cousins is concerned, the offense should focus on running the ball. Only one team can claim to beat their 193.7 yards per game on the ground. Minnesota is the better team here, which is already reflected in the line. But expect them to win outright here as they easily could be 3-0 while the Bears could easily be 1-2. Chicago was actually outgained by Washington on Monday night, but clearly benefited from being +4 in turnovers. Teams coming off a win on Monday night have now failed to cover seven straight times. 8* Minnesota |
|||||||
09-29-19 | Seahawks v. Cardinals +5.5 | Top | 27-10 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 49 m | Show |
8* Arizona (4:05 ET): Seattle was 10-6 last season and made the playoffs as a Wild Card. We liked them to regress here in 2019, so imagine our shock when they started 2-0. But those victories came under interesting circumstances. The two teams they beat - the Bengals and Steelers - are now a combined 0-6. They were actually outgained by a bad Bengals team, at home, 429-233. They held on to win that game by one. Then they beat Pittsburgh by two, but that was when the Steelers lost Ben Roethlisberger to injury. The injury occurred with the Steelers ahead. Oddsmakers expected the Seahawks to go to 3-0 last week as they faced the Saints w/o Drew Brees at home. But they were upset 33-27 and it wasn’t really that close. Arizona has yet to win in the Kliff Kingsbury/Kyler Murray era. They did rally for a 27-27 tie w/ the Lions back in Week 1. That’s a Lions team that hasn’t lost. After that, the Cardinals played Baltimore tough, losing by only six on the road. We thought it was a mistake to have them favored last week at home vs. Carolina, even though the Panthers were playing w/o Cam Newton. Sure enough, they lost that game 38-20. But we’ll call for a much better performance at home this week. This line shouldn’t be more than a field goal, in our opinion. The Legion of Boom days are long gone in Seattle. This Seahawks secondary gave up 418 yards passing to Andy Dalton in the opener and has faced a backup quarterback for the last six quarters. Murray may be a rookie, but he’s trusted to throw a lot in the Air Raid system. We certainly don’t like Seattle in this price range. They’ve gone just 4-10-1 ATS as a division road favorite under HC Pete Carroll. They’ve also failed to cover 7 of the last 10 times they’ve been a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points, losing four of those games outright. The Cardinals have covered the last five times as a dog of 3 to 7 points. A desperate home dog is worth taking here. 8* Arizona |
|||||||
09-29-19 | Titans +3.5 v. Falcons | Top | 24-10 | Win | 100 | 15 h 45 m | Show |
8* Tennessee (1:00 ET): This is hardly a great matchup for the favored Falcons. First off, it’s against an AFC opponent. Non-conference games have not treated this team well the last several seasons. A loss last week to the Colts was the 12th straight time they failed to cover against an AFC team (1-11 SU!) They are 5-21 ATS L26. It’s a 4-14 ATS mark under Dan Quinn and the franchise is 1-10 ATS and 3-13 SU when favored in these non-conference games. The fact the Titans come in w/ extra time to prepare (played last Thursday) is another disadvantage Atlanta didn’t need. Take the points. It’s more than just trends working against the Falcons here. The matchup isn’t great either. The strength of this offense is throwing the football. But the Tennessee defense has performed quite well against the pass this year. A defense that has yet to allow more than 20 points in any game this year is also giving up just 190 pass YPG. That’s top four in the league. Plus, Atlanta QB Matt Ryan is turning the ball over too much. His six interceptions are tied for the league lead and two of them have come in the red zone. Penalties have also been an issue for the Falcons, something that is usually NOT the case w/ Tennessee (save for last week). Another reason we like the Titans here is the extended prep time. Ten days ago, we faded them as a road favorite in Jacksonville and an anemic attack went down 20-7. The first two teams to lose on Thursday night have come back to win their next game. While Tennessee is rested, Atlanta just suffered a major injury with Keanu Neal tearing his ACL again. This is the second straight season that the All-Pro safety is out with that injury. The defense fell off a cliff w/o him LY. Back to the trends, the Titans are 11-5 SU and 11-3-2 ATS vs. the AFC South. While they failed to cover off a loss LW, the team is still 19-13-1 ATS w/ Mariota in that role. They are also 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS off B2B losses. Let’s not forget they went to Cleveland and won 43-13 in Week 1. 8* Tennessee |
|||||||
09-26-19 | Eagles +4.5 v. Packers | Top | 34-27 | Win | 100 | 26 h 5 m | Show |
10* Philadelphia (8:20 ET): The underdog has gone a perfect 3-0 this season on Thursday night. We've been on the dog each of the last two weeks with Bucs upsetting the Panthers and the Jaguars upsetting the Titans. The Eagles certainly hope the underdog trend continues this week as they are 0-3 ATS and more importantly (for them) 1-2 SU. They face a Green Bay team that is a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS, but the Pack have hardly been dominant in getting there. The Packers have actually been outgained in all three games and their YPG differential of -41.6 is certainly not what you'd expect from an undefeated team. They were fortunate to be +3 in turnovers LW at home vs. Denver and the week before actually saw them get outgained 7.0 to 4.9 by Minnesota on a per play basis. In a desperate spot for the Eagles, we're going to take the points in this matchup. Coming into the year, we did hail the Packers as being one of the most likely teams in the league to improve on last season's win total. Seeing them win only six times w/ a healthy Aaron Rodgers last year was somewhat shocking. So a coaching change was made (Matt LaFleur replacing Mike McCarthy). LaFleur, a 1st time HC, was supposed to reinvigorate Rodgers. But the offense is just 28th in YPG (286.7 YPG) and are 30th on third downs, converting just 25% of them time. Instead it's been the Packers defense that's been reinvigorated. They have 12 sacks (3rd most) and a league-leading +6 turnover differential. Those numbers are likely to lead most teams to a 3-0 start. But LB Za'Darius Smith just popped up on the injury list Wednesday (knee). We're not convinced this Packers' defense can continue to carry an offense that's playing so poorly. It's also helped that Green Bay's three opponents have all shot themselves in the foot. Meanwhile, the Eagles were the ones shooting themselves in the foot last week vs. Detroit. They allowed a TD on special teams, turned it over twice (leading to six Lions' points) and failed to score after blocking a FG. QB Carson Wentz also didn't have a full compliment of weapons LW as both starting WR's were out as was his TE for most of the game. But both Alshon Jeffrey and Dallas Goebert are expected back Thursday. Philly is scoring more than Green Bay so far, which is another reason to like them plus the points here. As underdogs, the Eagles have covered 9 of the last 13 times, winning eight of those games outright! 10* Philadelphia |
|||||||
09-22-19 | Rams v. Browns +3.5 | Top | 20-13 | Loss | -105 | 30 h 53 m | Show |
10* Cleveland (8:20 ET): What a difference a week makes in the eyes of the public. The Browns have gone from trendy road favorite to unpopular home dog, which is quite the week to week turnaround in this league. Making the perception all the more head-scratching is how they handled the short-handed Jets Monday night, winning that game 23-3 in dominant fashion. Perhaps some still have a "bad taste" in their mouth from the Browns' first game, which was an ugly 43-13 loss here at home to Tennessee. But that game got away from them late, making the final score at least a little misleading. An underdog for the 1st time here in 2019, we'll grab Cleveland plus the points Sunday night in what shapes us as the franchise's biggest game in years - hosting the defending NFC Champion Rams. Cleveland has done well in the past in this spot. At least recently. They were 4-1 ATS as a home dog last season and are also 4-1 ATS getting four points or less (home or road) w/ Baker Mayfield as the starting QB. They have also won and covered all three primetime games w/ Mayfield as the starter. Again, all trends only go back to last season, but there's no denying that this is a "new Browns team," at least compared to most of the moribund offerings this franchise has provided over the L20 years. Yes, they caught a break Monday night w/ the Jets having to turn to a 3rd string QB. But it hardly appeared as if Trevor Siemian was going to do anything productive before getting hurt. The Browns' defense allowed just 262 yds last week and a lot of that game in "garbage time." They do have some injuries to deal w/ on that side of the ball this week, but can get through it. In particular, look for the Browns to potentially win this game "in the trenches" w/ a talented defensive line going against an inexperienced Rams' O-line. There could be as many as three Rams lineman w/ three or fewer starts on their career resume playing tonight. On offense, QB Baker Mayfield must get rid of the ball quicker. He seems aware of that issue and thus we look for it to get rectified here. The Rams have caught some breaks of their own the first two games, facing an injured Cam Newton and a Saints team that lost Drew Brees to injury. We're not nearly as high on the Rams as the market seems to be. They have not covered three of the previous five times they've been a road fave of -3.5 to -7 points. 10* Cleveland |
|||||||
09-22-19 | Jets +22 v. Patriots | Top | 14-30 | Win | 100 | 23 h 50 m | Show |
8* NY Jets (1:00 ET): So, for the Jets, this is certainly not how you'd draw up the 2019 season. They are 0-2, having blown a 16-pt lead at home vs. Buffalo in Week 1 and are now down to their THIRD string QB after a 23-3 loss to Cleveland Monday night. Now, on a short week, they face the Patriots. The game is in New England where they have not won since 2010's shocking playoff upset, "led" by Mark Sanchez. Luke Falk is now the team's QB as the Jets look for their first regular season win here at Gilette Stadium since 2008! But they don't call the pointspread "the great equalizer" for nothing. It's a historic spread Sunday w/ the Jets getting three touchdowns. Regardless of what teams are involved, this is an automatic take the points situation. NFL underdogs of 21+ points have covered at a 67% rate all-time, going 22-11-2 ATS. Bill Belichick coached Patriots teams have NEVER covered as a favorite of 20 or more points, going 0-4 ATS. They haven't been in this situation since 2011 against the Colts when they won by just a touchdown. While the New England defense has yet to allow a TD this year, resulting in the team outscoring its first two opponents 76-3, they won't be so fortunate to face a team like the Dolphins every week. Note Miami is also getting more than 20 pts this week (at Dallas), making this a VERY unusual week of NFL betting. The reason we'll be taking the Jets and not Miami this week is pretty simple. The Jets are a much better team. Falk probably isn't much of a downgrade from Trevor Siemian and now he'll at least have had practice reps w/ the first team offense. For what it's worth, Falk is 8th on the NCAAF all-time passing yardage list. Covering a spread like this is hard to do in the NFL and it should be noted that the Patriots got TWO defensive touchdowns last week vs. the Dolphins and another from WR Antonio Brown, who is no longer w/ the team. The Jets defense has allowed just 40 points in two games. 8* NY Jets |
|||||||
09-19-19 | Titans v. Jaguars +2 | Top | 7-20 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
10* Jacksonville (8:20 ET): So much for home field advantage in these Thursday night NFL games. The road team has pulled an upset each of the first two weeks w/ Green Bay beating Chicago and Tampa Bay beating Carolina. But if an upset were to happen for a third straight time to open the season, this time it would be by the home team. Jacksonville comes in as a short home dog as they are 0-2 on the season following losses to Kansas City and Houston, both of whom were division winners last year. Something else to consider is that the Jags have been swept each of the last two years by the Titans. They will come into this game highly motivated and are our choice. Take the points. One of the big mistakes we made last week was overrating Tennessee's Week 1 performance in Cleveland. Sure, the Titans won that game 43-13. But they were only up two points late in the 3Q before the Browns imploded. Tennessee was actually outgained in that contest (346-339), but was fortunate to be +3 in turnovers. They are now +5 in turnovers on the season, but lost LW to the Colts 19-17. Truth be told, we were NOT high on Tennessee this year, but chose to take them last week as it seemed all the stars had aligned w/ the other three AFC South teams all losing in Week 1 and two of them seemingly having serious issues at the QB position. That line of thinking was obviously a mistake. Losing Nick Foles to a broken clavicle in Week 1 seemed like a death blow to the Jaguars' 2019 season. But backup Gardner Minshew II seems like he'll be a capable replacement. So far, Minshew has completed almost 70% of his pass attempts and he very nearly pulled off a comeback in Houston last week. (The Jags lost that game 13-12 as HC Doug Marrone elected to go for two and the win instead of kicking the extra point and forcing OT.) Moving forward, Tennessee probably isn't going to be as fortunate w/ turnovers as they've been the first two games. Even though he has asked to be traded, Jags DB Jalen Ramsey is going to play tonight. Don't be surprised if he has a good game and it's the Jags forcing some TO's against often error-prone Titans QB Marcus Mariota. It's a must-win game for the 0-2 Jags Thursday night. We'll back 'em. 10* Jacksonville |
|||||||
09-16-19 | Browns v. Jets +7 | Top | 23-3 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 50 m | Show |
10* NY Jets (8:20 ET): The Jets would certainly appear "up against it" here as starting QB Sam Darnold is out (mono) and will miss a significant period of time. They also have injuries on the defensive side of the ball as well. But in a battle of desperate 0-1 team, taking the points still seems like the logical way to go here, especially the in the wake of the line move when it was announced Darnold would be out. As we saw last week in a 43-13 home loss to the Titans, Cleveland may very well be overhyped. There's a lot of pressure here on a team that hasn't been a road favorite of more than five points since Bill Belichick coached here in 1995. Take the points. Speaking of former Browns' coaches, Gregg Williams guided the team to a 5-3 (SU) finish LY, which played a major role in the team getting so much attention in the offseason. Williams is now the DC for the Jets and finds himself in the headlines this week, not just b/c he's facing his former team. New Browns WR Odell Beckham Jr called Williams out for instructing his players to "injure" him in a 2017 preseason game (when OBJ was w/ the Giants and Williams was DC in Cleveland). This is probably much ado about nothing, but Williams being the Jets' DC now does give his team somewhat of an edge as he certainly knows the Browns' tendencies on offense. Even short-handed, look for the Jets defense to play well Monday night. As for the offense, the Jets should lean heavily on Le'Veon Bell, who had a nice return LW w/ 92 total yards on 23 touches. Bell did have a MRI Wednesday (shoulder) but checked out. The Jets should have won Week 1 at home vs. Buffalo as they were gifted a +4 TO margin in the 1H, but blew a 16-0 lead. Speaking of turnovers, Cleveland imploded in the 4Q LW vs. Tennessee w/ Baker Mayfield tossing three picks. They went from down 15-13 late in the third to 43-13 by the end of the game. It probably wasn't as bad as the final scored showed, but I come back to the fact that the Browns being favored on the road (let alone by this much) still doesn't "feel right." They've failed to cover four of the previous five times they've been favored (were -5.5 LW), losing three of those games outright. 10* NY Jets |
|||||||
09-15-19 | Colts v. Titans -3 | Top | 19-17 | Loss | -115 | 116 h 14 m | Show |
10* Tennessee (1:00 ET): When handicapping the NFL, one must be careful to not overreact to single game or week. Case in point, we were not particularly high on the Titans coming into the year. But it's hard to disregard just how well things "broke" for Tennessee in Week 1. Not only did they go out on the road and destroy a clearly overhyped Cleveland team, 43-13, but look at what's going on in the rest of their division (AFC South). The other three teams lost and two of them (Indy, Jacksonville) now have serious issues at QB. Honestly, right now, it's hard NOT to make Tennessee the favorite to win the AFC South. The Colts are still trying to get over the shock of Andrew Luck's sudden retirement last month. Certainly, they can expect little sympathy from any future opponent. But especially Tennessee, who Luck tormented for the better part of this decade. Luck was drafted in 2012. Since that time, the Colts are 12-2 SU and 10-4 ATS vs. the Titans. Even that record is misleading though. Both Tennessee SU victories came in 2017, the year Luck missed due to injury. With Luck out of the picture, the Titans know that now is the time to seize the reigns of the division. Here, they are getting the Colts in the second of B2B road games, which is a tricky spot to open the year. Since 2015, teams that open the season w/ B2B road games have gone a money-burning 1-14 ATS, losing by almost 8.5 points per game. Meanwhile, this is Tennessee's home opener. They've gone 12-4 SU in Nashville the past two seasons and come in with plenty of confidence after last week's strong effort on the road where they appeared strong on both sides of the ball. Indianapolis fought valiantly against the Chargers in Week 1, but ultimately came up short in OT. Jacoby Brissett has been thrust into the starting QB role and ironically he was the starter for both losses two years ago to the Titans. Also of concern in Indy is kicker Adam Vinateri, who missed three kicks Sunday, essentially costing his team the game. Love the spot here for the Titans as they aren't going to pass on an opportunity to kick the Colts while they're down. 10* Tennessee |
|||||||
09-15-19 | Bills v. Giants +1.5 | Top | 28-14 | Loss | -104 | 48 h 57 m | Show |
8* NY Giants (1:00 ET): Teams that start 1-0 typically have difficulty sustaining "momentum" (I'll always hate that word!) when they have to hit the road in Week 2, going a money-burning 5-18 ATS in that role since 2016. Taking it a step further, when the team is playing the second of B2B road games to open the year, they are 1-14 ATS (since '15), losing by an average of 8.4 PPG. Now this particular situation is a bit unique w/ Buffalo as they're actually playing in MetLife Stadium for a second consecutive week! They came back to beat the Jets last week, 17-16, erasing a 16-0 hole they'd dug themselves thanks to FOUR 1st half turnovers. But I can't see them pulling off the "New York sweep" here as I remain bearish on their 2019 fortune. The Giants weren't as lucky as the Bills in Week 1 as they ran into a revamped Cowboys offense and got blown out 35-17. The way they defended Dallas' new RPO-heavy look was reminiscent of something you'd probably see in a backyard football game! But the good news is that the Bills don't have the same level of talent as the Cowboys. Also interesting is that the Giants' offense actually gained 470 total yards last week (7.2 yards per play!), exactly 100 more than the Bills did in their victory. The disparate results boiled down to efficiency, particularly in the red zone where the G-Men failed to score at all in two of their four chances. It is important to remember that the Bills trailed the Jets 16-0 midway through the third quarter last week. At the time, QB Josh Allen had already turned the ball over four times (2 INTs/2 fumbles) and the offense had just 155 total yards. But incredibly, they would more than double that yardage total on the next three drives, scoring 17 points and pulling off a shocking comeback. Really, the Bills had no business winning that game. They also benefited from two missed Jets' kicks, an extra point and a field goal. Eli Manning is 7-0-1 ATS as a dog vs. the AFC East in his career, including a couple of memorable Super Bowl upsets you "may" remember. 8* NY Giants |
|||||||
09-15-19 | 49ers +1.5 v. Bengals | Top | 41-17 | Win | 100 | 48 h 39 m | Show |
8* San Francisco (1:00 ET): Interestingly enough, the same trend we cited as a reason to fade Buffalo is applicable here to the 49ers. They too opened their season w/ an "ugly" road win, beating the Buccaneers 31-17 despite being outgained. So what's the difference here w/ the Niners? Well, in the interest of full disclosure, I'm a lot higher on them than the market seems to be right now! My own personal power ratings have them as a field goal favorite for this game, which is against what I feel is one of the worst teams in the league, Cincinnati. Buck the trend here as the 49ers "shock the world" and open their season w/ B2B road wins out East! The Bengals turned in a game effort LW in Seattle, outgaining the Seahawks 429-232, but still coming up a point short (lost 21-20). I think a lot of people are going to see how close that game was and get fooled into thinking Cincy might be some kind of a threat on a weekly basis. Don't fall into that trap. While the Bengals should be commended for staying close in a game few, if any, expected them to win (they closed +9), I don't see this team winning very many games in 2019. They have a 1st year HC (Zac Taylor) who inherited a roster that peaked several years ago. I'm not convinced the "improvements" we saw on both sides of the ball LW are any sign of things to come. Meanwhile, all of my key indicators are pointing up for San Francisco this season. Last year, the team was dead last in turnover margin at -25 as they took the ball away only SEVEN times the entire season (including just TWO INT's)! That's a number that has a way of reverting back to the mean (league average), year to year. Already there are encouraging signs in that department as the Niners picked off THREE passes last week alone (see how that works?) and returned two for touchdowns! On offense, QB Jimmy Garoppolo is back and while his numbers from LW left a lot to be desired, note the Niners offense had TWO touchdowns negated due to penalties. To offset the travel, the team decided to stay out East this week and practice in Ohio. Smart move. Yes, they have injuries at RB, but so do the Bengals w/ Joe Mixon out. I look for the Niners to pull out a close one here. 8* San Francisco |
|||||||
09-12-19 | Bucs +7.5 v. Panthers | Top | 20-14 | Win | 100 | 30 h 52 m | Show |
10* Tampa Bay (8:20 ET): Both teams are coming off Week 1 losses here. The Buccaneers could have beaten San Francisco, but instead lost 31-17 in a game where two Jameis Winston interceptions were returned for touchdowns. It was a very sloppy game that saw three total touchdowns scored by the defense (one by TB) and FIVE nullified due to penalties. Meanwhile, don't be fooled by the closeness of Carolina's 30-27 loss to the Rams at home. They never led and were down double digits most of the way. Both teams desperately want to avoid an 0-2 hole and I think this is far too many points to lay on a short week for Carolina. Go w/ the dog. I had BOTH of these teams improving this year. One week in, they each have some work to do. I outlined the Panthers' path for improvement in my analysis last week. It had a lot to do w/ their record in close games over the L2 seasons. Two years ago, they were quite good in them. Last year, not so much. Well, last week's result definitely mirrored the second half of last season as they dropped to 0-6 their L6 games decided by seven points or less. But the reality is they were lucky to even finish that close as they punched in a garbage time TD in the final two minutes to make it 30-27. Going back to last season, a big issue w/ the offense has been Cam Newton's failure to "go deep." His longest completion in Wk 1 went for only 17 yds and he only attempted one pass of 20+ yds. Ultimately, I think Bruce Arians will have the Bucs improved. Whether or not he has the right pieces right now is up for debate. But the Bucs offense, which did gain a ton of yds last year, should have been better in Week 1. A lot of that falls on Winston and the interceptions. Look for him to clean up those mistakes here. The Bucs' defense did its job week, holding the 49ers to just 256 total yards. In the end, I view the market as being too one-sided on this matchup as the underdog is going to be every bit as desperate as the favorite. 10* Tampa Bay |
|||||||
09-08-19 | Giants +7.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 17-35 | Loss | -110 | 78 h 55 m | Show |
10* NY Giants (4:25 ET): This is a matchup where we are markedly higher on one team and markedly lower on the other. On paper, it's easy to understand why so many are writing off the Giants in 2019. They went 5-11 last season, lost WR Odell Beckham Jr in the offseason and made a questionable 1st round draft pick (QB Daniel Jones out of Duke). But this team wasn't as bad as you might think last season as they finished middle of the pack in DVOA and were only outscored by 43 points. The fact they lost eight games by 7 pts or less (most in the league) signals they may have actually been more unlucky than bad. Dallas was certainly more lucky than good last year. They went 10-6 SU and won the division despite only outscoring opponents by 15 pts over the course of the season. To put that point differential in its proper perspective, note that the other three division winners in the NFC were all +138 or better! Things really changed for the better after a mid-season trade for WR Amari Cooper. But it was not Cooper, nor the exploits of any one individual player that drove the Cowboys' success. Rather, it was a 9-2 record in games decided by 7 pts or less. That includes a perfect 7-0 after the Cooper trade, all those wins coming in the final nine weeks. Just once did the Cowboys win a game by more than eight points all year! The running back position is likely to be spotlighted in this matchup. With Beckham gone, the Giants are likely to lean heavily on second year RB Saquon Barkley, who had an outstanding rookie year. Dallas' bellcow Ezekiel Elliott just signed this week and there's no way he'll be in "game shape." Throw in the likely change these teams are going to experience this year in close games and you can smell an upset here. The G-Men also will be motivated by revenge as they've been swept the last two years by the Cowboys. The Giants have covered 11 of their last 16 road games. 10* NY Giants |
|||||||
09-08-19 | Bills v. Jets -3 | Top | 17-16 | Loss | -100 | 75 h 33 m | Show |
10* NY Jets (1:00 ET): So, we're higher on the Jets than most are for this season. We see a team that has plenty of room to improve, and should given that they finished LY 1-5 SU in games decided by 7 pts or less and w/ a -10 turnover differential. They have one of the worst Pythagorean win differentials (-1.3) as well, signaling that they were a lot better team than what you'd think w/ a 4-12 SU finish. QB Sam Darnold actually played a lot better in the 2nd half of his rookie season as his TD-INT ratio in the L4 games was 6-1. The offense adds RB Le'Veon Bell, who is fresh after sitting out all of last season and there's a new HC (Adam Gase) to preside over it all. Most are going to view these two AFC East rivals as being pretty even coming into 2019. But while we're high on the Jets, the same cannot be said for Buffalo. They did have two more wins than the Jets LY, but the two teams finished w/ nearly identical point differentials. We remain unsold on 2nd year QB Josh Allen as well. His 53% completion rate was worst in the league last year. Remember that it was at this time last year, many (us included) were projecting the Bills to be the worst team in football. They surprised in going 6-10 SU, but don't let that fool you into thinking they'll be improved for this year. Unlike the Jets, there were no substantive additions made on either side of the ball for the Bills, or on the coaching staff for that matter. The offense was actually quite bad last year and we don't think the defense is going to be as good this year. If we're right about the Jets, then it means beating the Bills at home. These teams split last year, but each time the road team won. The Bills' defense gave up 200+ rush yards in three games last season. So Bell could have a big debut here for the Jets. Buffalo has won just 5 of its last 17 road games and is 7-16 SU as an underdog. Lay the short number. 10* NY Jets |
|||||||
09-08-19 | Rams v. Panthers +2.5 | Top | 30-27 | Loss | -120 | 4 h 15 m | Show |
8* Carolina (1:00 ET): All the key metrics indicate that the Panthers will be an improved team in 2019. Ironically, it was at this time last year, we were proclaiming they were set to regress. The 2017 team that made the playoffs (went 11-5 SU overall) did so on the strength of a 7-2 record in one-score games and that was unsustainable. Now, for awhile there, our calls for regression looked foolish as the Panthers started last year 6-2. But, it turned out we were right as they lost their next seven games (five of them by 7 pts or less) and missed the playoffs altogether. Now, for many of the same reasons we said they'd regress last year, we believe they'll improve this year. Under HC Ron Rivera, the Panthers have a habit of having bounce back years w/ their record in "close games" almost being like a yo-yo year to year. Sean McVay has transformed the Rams into one of the league's real powerhouses the last two seasons. They made it all the way to the Super Bowl last year, but chose a most inopportune time to have their worst offensive game under McVay. The Patriots held them to 260 total yards and three points in an ugly game. What New England did that day will be studied and borrowed by all future Rams' opponents. One thing we know is certain and that's LA won't be repeating LY's 7-1 record in close games (sound familiar?), which happened to be a league best. It will also be challenging to match LY's +11 turnover differential as well. So, with one team set to improve and the other set to regress, our call on this one is pretty easy. Cam Newton wasn't healthy down the stretch for the Panthers last season and while he sustained a minor injury in the preseason, all indications are that he's ready to roll here in Week 1. Todd Gurley was basically M.I.A. in the Super Bowl for the Rams and we think he's a big question mark heading into this season. The loser of the previous year's Super Bowl has gone 3-16 ATS in Week 1 the L19 seasons as there's often a "hangover effect" from losing that big game. Newton is 14-5 ATS as an underdog since 2015, including a perfect 4-0 ATS the last four times he's gotten points at home. Teams that missed the playoffs and had a losing ATS record the previous year (Carolina was 7-9 ATS) are 30-15-1 ATS the L10 years in Week 1 if matched up w/ a playoff team. 8* Carolina |
|||||||
02-03-19 | Patriots v. Rams +3 | Top | 13-3 | Loss | -110 | 100 h 7 m | Show |
10* LA Rams (6:30 ET): I view these teams as pretty much even. One can only assume that the early line movement we saw on the Patriots was a byproduct of their vaunted reputation. The Rams, by comparison, are "new kids on the block" in this situation. For what it's worth, however, the Rams have produced a better point differential than the Patriots each of the last two seasons. Neither team had been an underdog all season before the respective Conference Championship Games when the Rams upset the Saints and the Pats did the same to the Chiefs. I only played one of those two games and it was against New England. That doesn't necessarily have a direct correlation to how I'm playing the Super Bowl, but it bears mentioning. I will be taking the points come Super Sunday w/ the Rams. Obviously, a great deal of attention has been paid to just how the Rams got here. They were an obvious beneficiary of a terrible blown call (should have been pass interference) vs. the Saints. But let's not use that singular play to discredit an entire body of work. They did end up outgaining the Saints 378-290 for the game and outscored 26-10 after the 1st quarter. The win over Dallas in the Divisional Round also was not as close as the final score indicates. The Rams led that game virtually the entire way (by as many as 16) and outgained the Cowboys 459-308. Not only does LA have a better point differential than New England, they have a better yardage differential - both on a per game and per play basis. Remember what I wrote about two weeks ago regarding the Patriots taking their act out on the road. Their offensive numbers go way down outside of Foxboro. Now obviously things didn't play out the way I had hoped vs. KC, but the Rams also have a better defense than the Chiefs. New England still has a losing record (4-5 SU) away from home. There is an irony here in that the Patriots' Super Bowl run under Belichick & Brady began w/ an upset of the Rams back in 2002. But remember that they have lost three Super Bowls, including last year (Philly special) and should have probably lost the last two. I think experience and reputation is somewhat overrated in this spot and will go w/ what I believe is the better team getting points. 10* LA Rams |
|||||||
01-20-19 | Patriots v. Chiefs -2.5 | Top | 37-31 | Loss | -135 | 74 h 57 m | Show |
10* Kansas City (6:40 ET): At long last, the Chiefs are finally back in an AFC Championship Game. It's their first appearance in one since 1993. Though the winner of this annual game gets the Lamar Hunt Trophy, named for the franchise's founder and long-time owner, this will be the first time EVER that Arrowhead Stadium has actually hosted an AFC Championship! The Chiefs had gone just 1-10 SU in playoff games since that '93 AFC Champ Game appearance (lost to Buffalo) and were a heinous 4-16 SU, 3-17 ATS in the playoffs since winning Super Bowl IV. But that was before they exorcised a lot of demons last week w/ a completely dominant performance here at home vs. what was a red-hot Colts team. I said last week that "this year would be different (for KC)" and I still feel that way now. Compared to the Chiefs, the Patriots' playoff resume is obviously a lot more impressive. They've won 10 straight division (AFC East) titles and five Super Bowls. This will be their 8th straight AFC Championship Game appearance, which is incredible when you think about it, and they're going for an 11th all-time Super Bowl appearance (their 10 prev appearances is the NFL record). They've gone 4-3 SU the L7 years in the AFC Champ Game, winning it each of the last two years. No team has won the AFC three straight years since the Bills of the mid-90's. The only other team to do it was the Dolphins in the early 70's. So enough w/ the history lesson, let's get down to the game. These teams did meet in the regular season w/ New England prevailing in a wild 43-40 game. But that was in Foxboro where the Patriots went undefeated this year (only team in the league to go unbeaten at home). Last week in Foxboro, everything that could go right for the Pats did as they routed the Chargers 41-28 (wasn't even that close). But this game is in Arrowhead and that presents a problem for Brady, Belichick and co. Kansas City's somewhat maligned defense is A LOT better at home, giving up just 17.4 PPG here. New England's offense, which averages 33.8 PPG at home, averages just 21.6 PPG on the road. That's a sizable dropoff, especially when having to compete w/ Pat Mahomes and the Chiefs' offense, which averages 35.1 PPG. Kansas City, clearly, is the better offensive team in this matchup. New England has lost road games this year to Detroit, Tennessee, Jacksonville and Miami. I think homefield and revenge play a big factor here and Kansas City goes on to the Super Bowl. Lay the points! 10* Kansas City |
|||||||
01-13-19 | Chargers +4 v. Patriots | Top | 28-41 | Loss | -103 | 117 h 32 m | Show |
8* LA Chargers (1:05 ET): At some point before kickoff, you are likely to hear that Philip Rivers has never beaten Tom Brady. The lifetime record is 0-7 SU and the Chargers have covered the spread in only one of the games, which happened to be the 2007 AFC Championship when the Patriots were undefeated and Rivers was playing on a torn ACL. (Rivers referenced that game in his post-game interview last week). For the record, Rivers has beaten the Patriots once (in 2008), but that was the year Matt Cassel had to fill in for an injured Brady. It also should be noted that the majority of the head-to-head matchups between Rivers and Brady have been close games. This might be Rivers best shot ever at beating Brady. I'm taking the points. At first glance, the timing and circumstance of this matchup do not seem most ideal from the Chargers' perspective. It's the second straight week where kickoff will be at 10 AM PST and the Patriots are off a bye. Nevertheless, there is a lot to like about this Chargers team. The defense is much better than in years' past. They held the Ravens to just three points and less than 100 total yds (including a negative in net passing!) through three quarters in the Wild Card game. Obviously, it will not be that easy here against Brady & the Patriots. But fortunately for the Chargers, their offense should also be a lot better this week. They average more yards per play this year than every team besides the Chiefs and Rams. Also, they won't have to face a Ravens' defense that is #1 in the league. The Patriots, like the Chargers, rank in the top 10 in the league in scoring defense. But there's a bit of a gap when it comes to the number of yards allowed. The Chargers are #9 in yards allowed while the Patriots rank 21st. New England was the only team in the league not to lose at home during the regular season, but the Chargers were arguably the league's toughest road team as they are now 8-1 SU and that one loss wasn't a true road trip as it came in LA against the Rams. I'm not convinced that the better team isn't the one getting points here. The Chargers are also 5-1 ATS as underdogs this season, also winning all five of those games outright. In terms of points allowed vs. scored and yards allowed vs. gained, these teams are relatively even on a per game basis. But the Chargers are significantly better on a per play basis. 8* LA Chargers |
|||||||
01-12-19 | Colts v. Chiefs -5 | Top | 13-31 | Win | 100 | 96 h 2 m | Show |
10* Kansas City (4:35 ET): Incredibly, underdogs have now cashed in 14 of the last 15 NFL playoff games. That included a 4-0 ATS sweep last weekend. Another trend Chiefs' fans won't want to hear is that their team is an absolutely woeful 4-16 SU, 3-17 ATS in the postseason since winning Super Bowl IV! That includes just ONE win since '93 (when Joe Montana was the QB!) and that sole victory came in 2016 against a 9-7 Texans team that was quarterbacked by the immortal duo of Brian Hoyer and Brandon Weeden! Since '93, there have been an incredible NINE "one and done's" by the Chiefs in the playoffs, four of those coming when they were at home and off the bye in this very Divisional Round. But never fear KC, I'm hear to tell you that things are going to be "all right" this year. Lay the points! Since '03, there's been only one time that the Chiefs lost at home in the Divisional Round. That was two years ago to the Steelers. This team is much better than any Chiefs team that has preceded it. Let's start w/ QB Patrick Mahomes and that record-setting offense, which led the league in both yardage and scoring. In Mahomes, HC Andy Reid finally has a QB capable of carrying his team to a SuperBowl. The problem for the Chiefs' in recent playoff appearances has been a lack of scoring. In the L11 playoff games, they've topped 21 pts just three times (including the 30-0 win over the Texans). That certainly should not be a problem here w/ an offense that comes in averaging 35.3 PPG. The Chiefs scored at least 26 pts in every regular season game. I think it's fair to say that no one expected Indianapolis to still be playing at this point of the season. Especially when they were 1-5 SU. But over the last three months, Frank Reich's team has been as good as anybody, going 10-1 SU the L11 games. They used a fast start (touchdowns on first two drives) to eliminate Houston last weekend, winning 21-7. But the Chiefs are a whole lot better than the Texans and anybody else the Colts have faced this year. The only playoff team that Indy beat this year besides Houston was Dallas and that game was at home. I just cannot see any way that KC loses this game as they have to be feeling "this is our year" after leading the AFC in point differential (+144) by a wide margin in the regular season. 10* Kansas City |
|||||||
01-06-19 | Eagles v. Bears -6 | Top | 16-15 | Loss | -110 | 57 h 25 m | Show |
10* Chicago (4:40 ET): I played the Bears in the very 1st game of the NFL season, the Hall Of Fame Game in August. In my analysis for that matchup, I said "I view the Bears as a potential darkhorse in the NFC North this season" and that you shouldn't be surprised if they end up making the playoffs. Well, that was one heck of a premonition and it turns out the team was even better than I thought they would be, rolling to the NFC North crown w/ a 12-4 SU record. I'm still not sure I'm sold on second-year QB Mitchell Trubisky, but Matt Nagy was a homerun hire as the head coach and the defense is one of the best in the league. Something else to keep in mind is that I fashioned Chicago as a potential darkhorse BEFORE they acquired Khalil Mack, which happened right before the start of the reg season and obviously made the stop unit even more formidable. Coming off its Super Bowl run last year, I think most were anticipating somewhat of a modest "step back" for the Eagles in 2018. Virtually everything went right for them a season ago, save for the Carson Wentz injury, but even then Nick Foles came in and played the best football of his career. Fast forward to one year later and Foles is again the starter heading into the postseason as Wentz is hurt again. Though Foles did win the Super Bowl LY, I don't think this is the scenario anyone in Philly wanted coming into the year. Quite frankly, the Eagles are pretty lucky to have even made the playoffs as they looked pretty much "left for dead" following a second loss to Dallas in Week 14. But they rattled off three straight victories w/ Foles starting at QB and that was enough to make it in a weak NFC. I realize that Philly fans have convinced themselves that they're better w/ Foles at QB than w/ Wentz, but at the end of the day this Eagles team is simply not as good as LY nor are they as good as the Bears. Recall that last season, the Eagles entered the playoffs as the #1 seed in the NFC and thus had homefield advantage. Now, they're the 6-seed and on the road. At this time last year, people were writing them off w/ Foles as the starter. Now they seem to be getting too much credit. Chicago is the much better team defensively in this matchup and the gap on offense isn't particularly great. Even last season, this Eagles' defense struggled on the road. The Bears are 7-1 SU at home this year and covered 12 of their 16 regular season games overall. They also led the league in takeaways. 10* Chicago |
|||||||
01-05-19 | Seahawks +2.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 22-24 | Win | 100 | 37 h 0 m | Show |
8* Seattle (8:15 ET): Reports of the Seahawks' demise this year turned out to be greatly exaggerated as here we are in January and another Russell Wilson-led team is in the playoffs. Make no mistake about it, this clearly is a Wilson-led outfit. Part of the reason, many (myself included) were so skeptical of Seattle coming into the season was that the famed "Legion of Boom" (secondary) had been disassembled and then to make matters even worse, the one holdover (Earl Thomas) got injured early in the year. The team started 0-2, but then went onto win 10 of its last 14 games, a streak which began in Week 3 w/ a win over ... the Cowboys. Two of their four losses were to the Rams (by a total of 7 pts) and another was to a 12-4 Chargers team. Dallas is another somewhat surprising playoff entrant. America's Team also got off to a slow start as they were just 3-5 at the midway point of the regular season. But in their case, it's easy to see what led to the turnaround, that being the acquisition of WR Amari Cooper from Oakland. Coming into the year, it was thought the Cowboys had the worst receiving corps in the league. But Cooper quickly changed that, giving QB Dak Prescott a viable weapon on the outside. Ezekiel Elliott also led the league in rushing yards. Credit should also be given to a Cowboys defense, which is legit one of the best in the league as it ranks seventh in yards and sixth in points allowed. Another key factor is that Dallas went a league-best 8-2 SU in close games (7 pts or less). Over the 2nd half of the season, they were 7-1 SU and every win was by 8 pts or fewer. While Elliott may have the individual lead in rushing yardage, no TEAM ran for more yards this year than Seattle. The Seahawks' offense ran for 160 YPG during the regular season, nearly 38 more than Dallas did. Both of these teams finished w/ 10-6 SU records, but Seattle had a +81 point differential while Dallas was only +15. The regular season meeting was in Seattle, but a change in homefield isn't enough to flip the result in my view. This will be the 4th meeting between the two teams since 2015. In the previous three, Dallas has failed to score more than 13 points and they've lost them all, one at home just last year. The Cowboys have never won a playoff game under HC Jason Garrett (0-2) and Seattle has covered five straight times as an underdog, winning three of those games outright. I also happen to trust Wilson more than Prescott in this situation. The better team is getting points. 8* Seattle |
|||||||
01-05-19 | Colts v. Texans | Top | 21-7 | Loss | -125 | 73 h 32 m | Show |
10* Houston (4:35 ET): The AFC South rivals have never met before in the postseason, but one thing they do have in common is that each rallied back from a poor start to the regular season. Houston won the division despite starting 0-3 while Indianapolis was pretty much left for dead at 1-5 SU. The Texans have won 11 of their last 13 games and the Colts have won 9 of 10, so we've got two red hot teams here. Being that they are division rivals, they met twice in the regular season. Each was victorious on the other's field w/ Houston's 37-34 OT win in Indy actually being its first win of the season and the Colts' 24-21 win in Week 14 being one of the two times the Texans have lost since then. The Colts have had the edge historically over the Texans, including a 9-4 SU, 9-3-1 ATS mark the L13 meetings. But I just don't see how Houston isn't getting more credit for being the home team here. I'll take the points. Let's look back at the two regular season meetings, shall we? The first meeting in Indy actually saw the Texans race out to an 18-point lead early in the 2nd half before letting the Colts back in. The Colts tied the game w/ a TD + 2-pt conversion in the final minute of regulation, capping off an 85-yard drive. Andrew Luck actually wound up throwing the ball 62 times for a career-high 464 yards as he was forced to play "catch up." That was the most points given up by the Texans' defense all season. This is a group that allows only 19.7 PPG for the season, including 17.0 at home. The second meeting in Houston saw the Colts largely control from start to finish. They again put up over 430+ yards against JJ Watt and company, but I think the third time will be the charm for this Texans' defense. I just don't see the road team winning on the field for a third straight time in a division rivalry. In their 9-1 run to end the regular season, the Colts were pretty fortunate to play a lot of bad teams and remember they were shutout (at Jacksonville) in their only loss. The last two weeks saw them have to rally back from a double digit deficit to beat the 5-11 Giants at home, then they were the beneficiaries of getting to face Tennessee having to start Blaine Gabbert at QB in a "play-in game." Houston is the better team and at home, thus they should be priced accordingly. 10* Houston |
|||||||
12-30-18 | Colts -3 v. Titans | Top | 33-17 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
8* Indianapolis (8:20 ET): This game will determine who gets the final playoff spot in the AFC. It could also be for first place in the AFC South if Houston were to somehow lose to Jacksonville earlier in the day (not likely). So the bottom line is the stakes could not be much higher for the final game of the NFL's regular season as the 9-6 Titans host the 9-6 Colts. You might be a bit surprised to see Indy favored on the road in this spot, but don't be as they've been the vastly superior team for the last two months, plus QB Andrew Luck has absolutely owned Tennessee in his pro career (10-0 SU against them!). The Titans are also dealing w/ uncertainty at QB as Marcus Mariota was injured last week and may not be able to play in the team's most important game of the season. Lay the points. Last season was a disaster for the Colts as they dipped to 4-12 SU and Andrew Luck didn't take a single snap. With Luck returning this year, the team was optimistic for a turnaround. But the season got off to an ugly 1-5 SU start and I have to admit that (like a lot of people), I essentially wrote this team off. But the Colts have put together a shocking run, winning 8 of their last 9 games, including a 38-10 beatdown of these Titans back in Week 11. Luck completed 23 of 29 passes in that blowout win for 297 yards. The Colts scored the game's first 24 pts and never looked back. Again, Luck has NEVER lost to Tennessee in his career. Tennessee made the playoffs last year and regardless of the result here will have put together three straight winning seasons. They've been the definition of "average" during that time, going 27-20 SU and outscoring their opponents by a total of four points. Speaking of point differential, a substantial gap exists between these two teams as the Colts are +73 this year compared to just +23 for the Titans. But the bigger deal is clearly the Mariota injury. He's reported as having a "stinger" which puts his long-term prognosis in some doubt. If the reports are true and Mariota can't go, then the Titans are left w/ Blaine Gabbert, who has NEVER played for a team w/ a winning record before this season. Compounding matters is that Tennessee is also beat up on the defensive side of the ball w/ Jurrell Casey, Brian Orakpo and Logan Ryan all out. The Colts are simply the better team here. 8* Indianapolis |
|||||||
12-30-18 | Browns v. Ravens -6 | Top | 24-26 | Loss | -110 | 100 h 48 m | Show |
10* Baltimore (4:25 ET): The Browns have been quite the exciting team since they made the correct move to dump HC Hue Jackson in the middle of the season. Led by rookie QB Baker Mayfield, the team is 5-1 SU in its last 6 six games, quintupling the number of wins the franchise had the previous two seasons combined. There is now a real sense of optimism in Cleveland for the first time in forever, though we'll have to see how the coaching situation plays out. It's also worth mentioning that none of the five teams Cleveland has beaten currently have winning records. Two of the five came against a Cincinnati team that is playing as poorly as anyone in the league right now. Wins over Carolina and Denver were basically "coinflip" type games. Baltimore is looking to win the AFC North here. To do so, all they need to do is win. While the Browns have made a leap from "laughingstock" to "respectable," the Ravens have gone from "mediocre" to "team no one wants to face in the playoffs." Last Saturday, they went out and turned in a very impressive performance, beating the previously red-hot Chargers 22-10 in LA. The Ravens' top-ranked defense snapped Philip Rivers' streak of 27 consecutive games w/ a TD pass and held the Chargers under 200 total yds, something that had happened only three other times in the Rivers era. The Chargers offense, which averages 6.6 yards per play (3rd highest in the league), never had a play longer than 17 yds the entire game and had just 10 pts on 12 drives. The lone LA touchdown came on a 17-yard drive after a fumble. The Ravens also have legit revenge here for a 12-9 loss suffered in Cleveland back in Week 5. That was a pretty even game that went to overtime and almost ended in a 9-9 tie. Both teams were also pretty different back then w/ Jackson still coaching the Browns and Lamar Jackson not yet starting at QB for the Ravens. Since Jackson replaced Joe Flacco, Baltimore has gone 5-1 SU w/ the only loss coming in OT at Kansas City. The offense has averaged a preposterous 218.8 yards rushing per game w/ Jackson as the starter. But the defense is still the bread and butter of this team as it ranks #1 in the league in both points and yards allowed. Look for them to keep Mayfield in check. With their season on the line, I look for the Ravens to win big here. 10* Baltimore |
|||||||
12-30-18 | Falcons v. Bucs | Top | 34-32 | Loss | -125 | 96 h 23 m | Show |
10* Tampa Bay (1:00 ET): A pair of disappointing seasons will be capped off Sunday in Tampa Bay where the Bucs host the Falcons. The season started so well for TB as they were 2-0 w/ QB Fitzpatrick setting records. But "Fitzmagic" quickly ran out of tricks and Jameis Winston doesn't seem like the guy to right this sinking ship either. HC Dirk Koetter may be coaching his final game this week. For Atlanta, their defense was decimated by injuries and the offense decimated by inefficiencies, particularly in the red zone. They're probably a better overall team compared to TB, but I don't think that means they're capable of winning on the road where their record this year is just 2-5 SU and ATS. I'll look for the home team to come through in this one as jobs are on the line. It's pretty shocking that the Bucs are only 5-10. As I said earlier, they were 2-0, but things quickly fell apart. Still though, they are outgaining opponents both on a per play and per game basis. They are actually third in the league in yards per game despite ranking 13th in scoring. Now the defense has largely been a disaster as it ranks 30th in scoring. But the team certainly deserved a better fate LW in Dallas when it outgained the Cowboys 382-232 (w/ 27-16 FD advantage), only to come up short on the scoreboard, 27-20. Not only did they give up a defensive TD in the game, but they were also stopped on downs inside the Dallas 10-yd line despite having it 2nd & 1 at the 2-yd line. It's been that kind of season for the Bucs, but that doesn't mean they can't win here. Being at home should have the Bucs as the more fired up side for this Wk 17 matchup. Both Winston and Koetter's jobs are likely on the line. Adding to the motivation is the fact the Bucs have lost to the Falcons four straight times, including a tough 34-29 setback in Atlanta back in Week 6. That's one of six losses the team has by eight points or less. The offense rolled up 500+ yards on the Falcons' D in that first meeting, but was -2 in TO's (like last week). As for the TB defense, it is MUCH better at home, giving up just 18.6 PPG as opposed to the 35.1 PPG it allows on the road. Atlanta has won each of the last two weeks, but has nothing to play for and could rest some offensive stars. 10* Tampa Bay |
|||||||
12-23-18 | Chiefs v. Seahawks +3 | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 50 h 2 m | Show |
10* Seattle (8:20 ET): While the Seahawks' secondary appears beaten up at the absolute worst time, they can still lean on the fact they have QB Russell Wilson and are a ridiculous 16-2 SU at home in primetime games under HC Pete Carroll. This is a huge game for both sides as Kansas City is trying to maintain the top spot in the AFC (could be one-half game back of the Chargers by kickoff) and Seattle is trying to lock down a Wild Card spot over in the NFC. I've taken Seattle a couple of times already in primetime games this year, citing short lines, and now I can grab them as a dog! Take the points. The two previous times I've taken Seattle in primetime games this year were a Thursday nighter vs. Green Bay (pushed as 3-pt favorites) and a Monday nighter vs. Minnesota (covered easily in a 21-7 win). In my analysis for both games, I cited the cheap price on them at home. Well, now they're a home dog, which you simply do not see very often. They were once earlier this year and I took them in that spot as well, getting almost a full TD against the Rams. They covered in a game they led much of the way (but eventually lost 33-31). They are now a perfect 5-0 ATS in the Russell Wilson "era" (2012-) as a home dog, winning four of those games outright. The health of Seattle's secondary will probably be a major focus going into Sunday night and it should be. But, for what it's worth, Carroll believes two of the questionable players are going to see the field. Remember this is a group that still has been able to find its way despite the loss of Earl Thomas early in the year. To me, the bigger question is Kansas City's defense, which is one of the worst in the entire league. In their last road game, the Chiefs gave up 33 points to a horrible Raiders team. They are 31st in the league in yards allowed per game. The poor defense has certainly contributed to the team's 0-4-1 ATS record its L5 games. Seattle's offense is ninth in the league in scoring. 10* Seattle |
|||||||
12-23-18 | Jaguars +4 v. Dolphins | Top | 17-7 | Win | 100 | 43 h 44 m | Show |
8* Jacksonville (1:00 ET): Fair warning - we're going w/ some "ugly" teams in this week's 3-pack. But this being late in the year, oddsmakers are starting to make you pay a "premium" for teams in "must win" situations. Case in point, Miami. Somehow, someway, the Dolphins have managed to stay in playoff contention despite a horrible YTD point differential (-79) that is actually 4th WORST in all of the league. This trend goes back even further. Over the last three seasons, Miami has a 23-23 SU record, but has been outscored by a stunning 208 points during that time. This is no legit playoff contender and I don't think they should be laying this many points to anyone, even a down-on-its luck Jacksonville team. Last week, I played against the Dolphins as an underdog. It was a big play of Minnesota, my 10* Game of the Month in fact. The game was never really close as the Vikings jumped out to a quick 21-0 lead and wound up winning 41-17. It was quite emblematic of the Dolphins' season. While their seven wins have all been by eight points or less, six of their seven losses have been by double digits. Three of their last four wins have been by four points or less, one coming in overtime and another coming on the miracle play against the Patriots. Now they have to go w/o RB Frank Gore, their top offensive player. Gore averaged 4.6 yards per carry and his production will be tough to replace. This has been a disastrous season for Jacksonville, one that will in all likelihood lead to the franchise moving on from coach Doug Marrone and QB Blake Bortles. No team will have a bigger drop in wins from last season. But as bad as things have gotten, the Jags typically lose close. Like last week, when they gave the game away against Washington and lost 16-13. It was their fourth loss by four points or less since November 11th. They still have a defense that allows just 20.6 PPG. While out of it, I still rate Jacksonville slightly better than Miami. Note the Dolphins have been favored only three times all year and never by more than 3.5 points. 8* Jacksonville |
|||||||
12-23-18 | Giants +10.5 v. Colts | Top | 27-28 | Win | 100 | 43 h 44 m | Show |
8* NY Giants (1:00 ET): These teams were on opposite ends of shutouts last week. The G-Men were blanked, at home, by Tennessee. Indianapolis turned in perhaps its finest performance of the season w/ a 23-0 blanking of the Cowboys. Remember what I said about this 3-game report containing some "ugly" picks? Well, this is another one. As hot as the Colts have been (won 7 of 8), I'm unconvinced that they should be laying this many points against anyone. While they've been favored six times during the win streak, never have they been asked to lay more than a touchdown and in that instance it was against Buffalo. Again, we have an instance where oddsmakers are asking you to pay a premium on a team in a "must win" spot for playoff contention. I'll take the points. The G-Men couldn't score w/o Odell Beckham last week, but I think they'll find an easier time here against the Colts' defense. I say that knowing full well the Colts have allowed 6 pts or fewer in two of the last three games. They may no longer have Beckham, but they do have Saquon Barkley (1800 total yds) to lean on. Also, remember that two weeks ago the Giants scored 40 points w/o OBJ and that was against what is still a pretty good Redskins' defense. This is a Giants team that also beat Chicago three weeks ago. Three of the Colts last five victories have been by a field goal. Also, the Giants are 6-1 ATS on the road this season w/ three outright upsets. My raw numbers have this line closer to six points. That's a lot of value. This is similar to the other two games in this report where the team facing a "must win" is being overvalued. The Colts have a huge showdown w/ the Titans next week that could very well determine the last seed in the AFC playoffs. They'll be a better value in that matchup. 8* NY Giants |
|||||||
12-23-18 | Vikings v. Lions +7 | Top | 27-9 | Loss | -140 | 43 h 42 m | Show |
8* Detroit (1:00 ET): We look to hit the trifecta here w/ yet another team getting serious value. Detroit cashed for me last week, even in a loss to lowly Buffalo. I said the Bills shouldn't be favored and while they won, the price was too high. Don't be surprised to see a similar result transpire this week. The Vikings, in desperate need of a win here, are laying about a field goal more than they should. At 7-6-1, they currently occupy the final playoff spot in the NFC. But it's a precarious lead. As motivating as that situation may be, I don't see them winning by more than a touchdown here. Take the points. Minnesota was my *10* Game of the Month last week. But they were at home and facing a Miami team I have little to no regard for (see Jacksonville writeup!). You may ask why I'd have more regard for a 5-9 Lions team. Well, they're at home this week and getting roughly the same number Miami did LW in Minnesota. This despite a YTD point differential that's significantly better. A decimated Lions offense has had its trouble scoring in recent weeks, but be aware that they've lost by more than a TD only one time in the last five games and that was to a Rams team that scored late. The Vikings put up 41 last week, but that was after scoring a total of just 17 pts the two weeks prior. When it comes to winning big games, QB Kirk Cousins does not exactly have the finest resume. Minnesota has been favored twice on the road this year (1-1 ATS), but never by more than a field goal. Consider that they were asked to lay only three against the Jets, who are certainly a worse team that Detroit. This is a division game and the final home game for the Lions, so they should "show up." They have revenge for a poor showing in Minnesota back in Week 9 and aren't often a dog in this price range in their own stadium. 8* Detroit |
|||||||
12-22-18 | Redskins +12 v. Titans | Top | 16-25 | Win | 100 | 22 h 14 m | Show |
10* Washington (4:30 ET): I admit that this is a bit of an "ugly" play, but I'm going to stick with my numbers here. The numbers say Tennessee is way overvalued here and that's likely due to the combination of the "must-win" nature of the game for them (to stay viable in the playoff hunt) and the fact the Redskins are starting third-string QB Josh Johnson. But Johnson did lead the 'Skins to a victory last week, 16-13 over the Jaguars, in his first NFL start in seven seasons. Also, just because Tennessee "must win" here, doesn't mean they will cover. Washington, believe it or not, is also still alive in the playoff hunt. Take the points. Tennessee is not built to cover a spread this large. They average only 19.1 PPG and while it was shutout win last week (17-0 over the Giants), we usually don't see them win by that kind of margin. The Titans have only been favored in 4 of 13 games this season. Three of those instances are the last three weeks! While they beat the Giants and Jags by a combined 47-9 margin the L2 wks, remember they were also "tooth and nail" w/ the Jets here at home three weeks ago. Five of their eight wins this season have been by four points or less. This figures to be a low-scoring game and that makes taking the points an attractive option. Obviously, the focus for the Redskins defense here will be stopping RB Derrick Henry, who ran over both the Giants and Jags. But consider that the number of rushing yards Henry has the L2 wks (408) accounts for nearly half his season total. Titans QB Marcus Mariota did not thrown a TD pass in either game. Johnson actually looked fairly competent for Washington LW, completing 16 of 25 passes in a come from behind effort to beat Jacksonville. The Redskins have a good defense that can keep them in this one. Meanwhile, Tennessee's defense just lost a key piece w/ CB Logan Ryan suffering a broken leg. The only time the Titans have been favored by more than a TD this year was the Jets game when they won by only four. Oddsmakers are making you pay a premium on them here. 10* Washington |
|||||||
12-17-18 | Saints v. Panthers +7 | Top | 12-9 | Win | 100 | 23 h 5 m | Show |
10* Carolina (8:20 ET): This is essentially a "do-or-die" spot for the Panthers. Not only in terms of their current playoff standing, but also w/ their poor history against the Saints. Carolina comes into Monday night having dropped five in a row. That's the longest losing skid in the league right now. If there is one silver lining, they've generally been losing close games. Their last four losses have all been by a TD or less (been favored in every game). But there's no sugarcoating the rivalry w/ the Saints, which has seen the Panthers fail to cover six of the last seven meetings. They say "it's hard to beat the same time THREE times in the same season," but don't tell that to Carolina as they lost three times to New Orleans last year. They did cover in the playoff loss after going 0-2 ATS in the regular season. I think everyone considers the Saints to be the best team in the league right now, or they at least ought to. They've got the best record (11-2 SU), the best point differential (+164) and are 10-3 vs. the number. But there have been some signs that their dominance has waned. Two weeks ago, they went to Dallas and played - easily - their worst game of the season, getting beat 13-10. Then last week saw them have to rally back from a 14-3 second half hole against Tampa Bay. Total yardage was basically even in that game and the key was a blocked punt that swung the game. It was the second straight week that the Saints' vaunted offense was held below 300 total yards. This is a tricky spot for New Orleans as they're playing on the road for a third straight week. The sense of urgency is no longer there for them w/ the Rams losing last night. That Rams loss gives the Saints a very good chance of earning homefield advantage in the NFC half of the playoff draw. Meanwhile, Carolina should come out very inspired here. They're a much better team at home (5-1 SU) and this is just the second time all year they'll be a home dog (1st was a 36-21 win over Baltimore). They also have triple revenge against the Saints. The underdog has cashed seven of the past eight times in this NFC South rivarly. The Panthers are also 3-0 ATS their L3x as a home dog. 10* Carolina |
|||||||
12-16-18 | Patriots v. Steelers +2.5 | Top | 10-17 | Win | 100 | 90 h 7 m | Show |
8* Pittsburgh (4:25 ET): We all know the story here. New England has been a real nemesis for the Steelers through the year. The Patriots have won and covered the L5 meetings, which includes an AFC Championship Game (2016). All-time against Tom Brady, the Black & Gold are a horrible 2-11 SU and ATS. All but two of those games have come w/ Ben Roethlisberger at QB. Of course, the poor history vs. the Pats is only secondary to what's going on presently in Pittsburgh. After a 7-2-1 start, the Steelers have lost three in a row, putting their playoff status in precarious position. Another Big Ben nemesis, Oakland, stunned the Steelers last week. Roethlisberger was injured and missed most of the 2nd half, but did come back to lead a TD drive late. But the defense couldn't hold and Pittsburgh has still never won in Oakland during Big Ben's career. That followed a pair of frustrating, one-score losses to the Chargers (blew 23-7 halftime lead) and Broncos (had 527-308 edge in total yds, but were -4 in turnovers). Though the postseason is no longer guaranteed, this is still a good team. They average 34.5 PPG at home and IMO, still deserve to be favored here. New England is off its own stunning loss. Their came in the most improbable fashion possible as they gave up a multi-lateral TD on the final play at Miami last week. I'm sure you've seen it by this point. Laying a short number and off a SU loss, one can only assume the Patriots will be an attractive wager this week. But the reality of the matter is this team is only 3-4 SU on the road this year w/ losses to Jacksonville, Detroit, Tennessee and Miami. No doubt, head to head history played a role in where the oddsmakers set this line, but the Patriots are no longer what they once were. Putting pressure on Brady is key to beating him and the Steelers' D leads the league in sacks w/ 45. 8* Pittsburgh |
|||||||
12-16-18 | Dolphins v. Vikings -6.5 | Top | 17-41 | Win | 100 | 87 h 43 m | Show |
10* Minnesota (1:00 ET): Fresh off the heels off a Monday night loss to Seattle, the Vikings decided to fire OC John DeFilippo. Anyone who watched the telecast probably wasn't surprised. The offense looked impotent as the announcers buried DeFilippo to no end. But truthfully, Minnesota didn't play nearly as poorly as the 21-7 final suggests. They actually had a slight edge in total yards in a game they trailed only 3-0 heading into the fourth quarter. When it was a 6-0 game, the Vikings had two chances to score, but were stopped on downs at the goal line, then later had a FG blocked in controversial fashion (Seattle's Bobby Wagner should have been called for "leaping.") To make matters worse, the Seahawks got a late defensive TD to ice the game. After the coordinator change, I expect the Vikings to respond well and deliver one of their best games of the year, at home, this week. Miami is 7-6 SU and anyone that has a TV knows how their game last week ended. Down 33-27 to the Patriots, they pulled off an all-time miracle on the final play of the game. My congrats to them for a season highlight worth celebrating. But here's the reality: the Dolphins are not a very good football team and extremely lucky to have a winning record. They've been outscored by 55 pts this year, a differential that's slightly worse than the Jaguars & Falcons, both of whom are 4-9 SU. This kind of overachieving has gone on throughout Adam Gase's tenure here. Over the last three seasons, Miami has been outscored by 184 points despite a 23-22 SU record. Every Dolphins win this year has been by eight points or less. Five of their six losses have come by double digits. The overachieving ends Sunday. Both teams desperately need to win here to stay in playoff hunt in their respective conferences. But Minnesota is at home, where they're 4-2 SU/ATS, including a perfect 3-0 as chalk in the -3.5 to -7 range. QB Kirk Cousins really is better than he's given credit for; he's just operating behind a questionable offensive line. With this line hovering around a TD, the Vikings are a great value (were -9.5 on the lookahead line). Not only did it take a miracle to win last week, but the previous week saw Miami outgained 415-175, yet come away w/ a 21-17 victory @ Buffalo when Bills QB Allen missed a wide open WR on the game's final play. What this play boils down to is my lack of respect for the Dolphins and their phony record. They've lost five in a row on the road. 10* Minnesota |
|||||||
12-16-18 | Lions +3 v. Bills | Top | 13-14 | Win | 100 | 87 h 42 m | Show |
analysis soon |
|||||||
12-15-18 | Browns v. Broncos -3 | Top | 17-16 | Loss | -103 | 99 h 8 m | Show |
10* Denver (8:20 ET): The lookahead line for this Saturday night matchup was Denver laying six points. So last week's respective results certainly had a significant impact on the oddsmakers. Cleveland beat Carolina, 26-20, at home while Denver went out and lost to lowly San Francisco, 20-14 as three-point chalk. The oddsmakers are now saying these teams are basically even, giving Denver the token number for homefield advantage. But I still believe that a gap does exist between these two teams. Lest we forget that the Broncos had won and covered three straight before taking the "L" last week. They've been hit hard by some injuries, but should still be able to defeat a team that is just 1-26 SU its last 27 road games. Lay the short number here. Let us also not forget the last time Cleveland was off a win. They'd just beaten the Bengals (snapping a 25-game road losing streak) and headed to Houston where they were completely outclassed by the Texans in a 29-13 loss (shutout in the 1H). Last week saw the Browns bounce back, at home, over a slumping Carolina team. Rookie QB Baker Mayfield has brought alot of excitement to this downtrodden organization, but I can't help but think expectations are a little TOO high right now w/ actual talk of running the table and making the playoffs. It'll be interesting to see how Mayfield operates, on the road (and in primetime) against a defense that has allowed 22 pts or fewer in five straight games. The Browns' defense remains pretty poor as it ranks 31st in yards allowed. These teams have a history against one another that goes back to the late 1980's when they were the top two teams in the AFC. But that was long ago. Since returning to the league in 1999, the Browns are 0-7 SU vs. the Broncos. I think Denver's stock was a little too high going into last week's game vs. San Francisco, but now it's a "buy low" situation off the loss. This is a team that holds recent wins over both the Chargers and Steelers. Granted that was before losing CB Chris Harris and WR Emmanuel Sanders. Those injuries definitely played a role in losing to the 49ers, but I think the team was also overconfident heading into last week. That will no longer be the case here. The Broncos are still the better team here and getting a home game on a short week is always an advantage. 10* Denver |
|||||||
12-13-18 | Chargers v. Chiefs -3 | Top | 29-28 | Loss | -126 | 54 h 6 m | Show |
10* Kansas City (8:20 ET): This one is for "all the marbles" in the AFC West. Well, perhaps that statement is a bit premature. After Thursday night, both the Chargers and Chiefs have two games to go. If Los Angeles were to win Thursday night, then they'd be tied w/ KC atop the division at 11-3 and we'd have to see how things play out. But if the Chiefs win here, they clinch the division as they'll have a two-game lead on the Bolts and own the tiebreaker. One of the major stories going into this showdown is how KC has absolutely OWNED the rivalry. Head to head, they've beaten the Chargers NINE consecutive times (last loss was 2013). The most recent win was Week 1, 38-28, as a 3-point dog. The Chiefs are 7-2 ATS during that nine-game SU win streak. When the Chiefs beat the Chargers back in Week 1, little did any of us know the kind of trans-formative season that QB Patrick Mahomes was set to have. Mahomes is rewriting the record books, becoming just the third 1st or 2nd year QB to throw for over 4,000 yds and 40 TD passes in the same season. Dan Marino and Kurt Warner are the two others. Mahomes, now the betting favorite to win NFL MVP, has thrown for 4,300 yds and 43 touchdowns. Both Marino and Warner made it to the Super Bowl in their 4000+ yard, 40+ TD seasons. Under Mahomes direction, the Chiefs have the top offense in the league, averaging 36.2 PPG. They are unbeaten at home and getting this game on a short week is a huge advantage. You might recall that I played against KC last week as they squeaked by Baltimore, 27-24 in overtime. I was a winner as the Ravens were +7. Why the quick switch to the Chiefs, especially in light of how critical I was of their defense in last week's analysis? Well, I don't think LA is going to be able to replicate the kind of pressure Baltimore's top ranked defense got on Mahomes. Also, the Chargers have a major injury concern at RB w/ Melvin Gordon and possibly Austin Eckler both out. Without Gordon, they were able to beat both the Steelers and Bengals. But remember they were down 23-7 at the half in Pittsburgh and Cincinnati is a bad team they only beat by five points. While I'm a fan of what the Chargers have done this season, they've really beaten up on a lot of bad teams. They are just 3-7 SU the L10 times they've been an underdog of a field goal or more. 10* Kansas City |
|||||||
12-09-18 | Ravens +7 v. Chiefs | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 90 h 53 m | Show |
10* Baltimore (1:00 ET): While all the talk in Baltimore right now centers around the QB position, the Ravens have a significant edge defensively in this matchup and that will be what carries them this week in Kansas City. Currently, the Ravens stop unit is #1 in the league in both scoring and total defense, giving up just 17.8 points and 281.7 yards per game. That makes them extremely attractive to me as an underdog, especially one of this size. Compare those defensive numbers to Kansas City, who 31st in yards allowed (417.0 per game) and 27th in points allowed (27.3). I feel the road dog easily stays within the number here and I give them a great shot at the outright upset. Now the Chiefs do have the league's top scoring offense (ridiculous 37.0 PPG) and are #3 in yards (437.2). But they did give up 33 points to a hideous Raiders team last week (ATS win for me!). That's an Oakland offense that averages only 18.3 PPG. The Chiefs' defensive numbers have been significantly better at home, but that's because they've also drawn some of the weaker opponents on the schedule here. It also remains to be seen how this offense performs w/o RB Kareem Hunt. You know the story there. Hunt's services certainly weren't needed to get by the lowly Raiders. But the ferocious Ravens defense will be a different story altogether. Baltimore is 3-0 since Lamar Jackson took over as the starting QB for an injured Joe Flacco. To me, it would be crazy to go back to Flacco. The offense has been able to run the ball far more effectively w/ Jackson in the game (239 YPG) due to Jackson being a threat to run himself (265 yds). The Ravens do have a greater sense of urgency than the Chiefs, whose inclusion in the playoffs is all but assured at this point. Baltimore is fighting for its playoff life, trying to get in either as a Wild Card or the AFC North winner. Only two offenses have topped 24 points against the Ravens defense this year. In his three starts so far, Jackson has benefited from that defense allowing an average of just 211 YPG. They'll keep this one close. 10* Baltimore |
|||||||
12-09-18 | Falcons +6 v. Packers | Top | 20-34 | Loss | -120 | 90 h 53 m | Show |
10* Atlanta (1:00 ET): Green Bay is a total mess right now. They've lost five of their six last games, including at home to Arizona last week, which cost Mike McCarthy his job. I think the notion that they'll receive some sort of "boost" in the wake of the firing of their head coach is "wishful thinking" on the part of the Cheeseheads. Of course, the Falcons have been every bit as disappointing as the Packers this year as they're 4-8 SU (GB is 4-7-1) and have lost four in a row (also 0-4 ATS). But they at least have a stable coaching staff, plus they're getting nearly a touchdown this week at Lambeau Field. I had this line closer to a field goal. Take the points. Now four of Green Bay's last five losses have come by seven points or less. It would be unfair to pin the whole demise on McCarthy, but it was probably time for him to go, especially if he wasn't getting along w/ Aaron Rodgers. Joe Philbin takes over on an interim basis. You may remember him from the non-descript job he did in three-plus seasons as the HC down in Miami. (He had previously served as OC in GB during the Super Bowl season). Philbin is a lame-duck coach as the Packers are simply playing out the string. Despite having Rodgers, this team simply isn't very good. The offense has only managed 17 pts in B2B games and the defense has totally fallen off a cliff. It's a somewhat similar story w/ the Falcons, who haven't even scored 20 points in a game since Week 9 when they were coming out of their bye. Last week was a new low as they were held to 131 total yards - at home - in a 26-16 loss to Baltimore. Now it should be pointed out that the Ravens have the #1 defense in football. So it should be easier sledding for Matt Ryan and company this week, even though they are on the road. Pretty clearly, there's enough disappointment to go around in this matchup, but I just don't see the Packers as being seven points better than the Falcons right now, even at home. 10* Atlanta |
|||||||
12-09-18 | Saints v. Bucs +9.5 | Top | 28-14 | Loss | -125 | 74 h 19 m | Show |
8* Tampa Bay (1:00 ET): Here's the other game where I was a winner in the first meeting. Like Colts-Texans, boy, has a lot changed since then. In this case, New Orleans was a 10-pt favorite at home against Tampa Bay. That doesn't sound out of the ordinary, but the fact that the Bucs won 48-40 sure was shocking at the time. It's even more shocking in retrospect considering the kind of season the Saints have had. They didn't lose again until last week, another time I happened to play against them. Obviously, with the revenge angle in full effect, the Saints are going to be a popular choice this week. But for a second time this season, they are overvalued against the Bucs. Take the points. Not only did the Saints win 10 in a row after losing to the Bucs, they were a covering machine too. A nine-game ATS win streak was also snapped last week in Dallas. The Cowboys' defense shockingly shut down Drew Brees and company to the tune of just 10 points and 176 total yards. That was easily a season-low in total yardage, but also the fewest points scored by the Saints in any game in three years. Now they're going up against a significantly worse defense here in Tampa. But they'll have to contend w/ an offense that has the ability to trade points w/ them. This is also another road game and outdoors to boot. The Bucs, not the Saints or Chiefs, lead the league in total yardage. Now some of that has to do w/ always being in shootouts because of the defense. But whether its been Ryan Fitzpatrick or Jameis Winston at QB, this offense has moved the ball. It was Fitzpatrick at the helm in the Week 1 upset of the Saints, but Winston hardly represents a downrgrade from the ultimately turnover-prone Fitzpatrick. Winston has guided the team to wins the L2 weeks, over the 49ers and Panthers, both here at home. The defense also showed up in both wins, giving up just 26 points total. Will they possibly give up that many (or more) in this game? There's a good chance. But the Bucs are getting a lot of points at home and I'll take 'em. Something I mentioned in last week's analysis is that the Saints had not been favored by more than a TD on the road since 2013 (didn't cover). Now it's happening in B2B weeks. Tampa Bay has not been a home dog of a TD or more since 2014. 8* Tampa Bay |
|||||||
12-09-18 | Jets +3.5 v. Bills | Top | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 74 h 19 m | Show |
8* NY Jets (1:00 ET): The Jets are a better team than Buffalo. That may not be saying much, but it's true. I know the Flyboys have one fewer win than the Bills (3 vs. 4) and were destroyed 41-10 at home by the Bills just a few weeks ago. However, despite the respective records and the destruction that occurred in the first meeting, the Jets still have a far better YTD point differential (-64 vs. -115). In fact, the Bills have the third worst point differential in all of football. For that first meeting, the Jets were seven-point favorites. Now they're getting about a field goal. I know it was a blowout, but the line shift has been too significant. Take the points. This is the first time Buffalo will be favored this year. Every other team in the league has been favored at least twice. You've got a Bills' offense averaging an AFC-low 14.8 PPG. Expect them to win by a comfortable margin - against anyone - seems to be wishful thinking from my vantage point. I realize that they've played a little bit better of late. But they're coming in off a crushing defeat LW in Miami where rookie QB Josh Allen failed to hit a wide open receiver (who was in the end zone) on the final play. I still have serious doubts about Allen as a potential leader of this franchise. Also, might the recent uptick in performance lead to a - gasp - sense of overconfidence w/ the Bills (along w/ being favored for the first time). The Jets are also off a crushing loss, theirs coming at Tennessee. They led 16-0, but lost 26-22, giving up the GW TD in the final minute of a game they'd never trailed in previously. It was their sixth loss in a row overall and HC Todd Bowles is definitely coaching for his job at this point. It looks like rookie QB Sam Darnold will return this week, which is good. Josh McCown just didn't have it anymore. The Jets have lost 7 out of the last 10 meetings vs. the Bills, so the players and coaching staff should be out for revenge. I just don't think I could ever endorse Buffalo as a favorite. 8* NY Jets |
|||||||
12-03-18 | Redskins +6 v. Eagles | Top | 13-28 | Loss | -105 | 34 h 37 m | Show |
10* Washington (8:20 ET): Just a little over a week ago, the Eagles seemed to be dead and buried. They were coming off a humiliating 48-7 loss to the Saints (biggest lost EVER for reigning SB champ!) and down 19-3 at home to the last place Giants. But then, they "woke up," rallying for a 25-22 win despite getting outgained by the G-Men. Now, things appear to be looking up in Philly. Sure, the team is only 5-6 SU, a far cry from LY's record. But they're favored Monday night and a win would keep them within just one game of first place Dallas, who they'll play next week. At the very worst, the second Wild Card in the NFC is still in play as only five teams in the conference currently have more than six victories. But are we THAT sure the Eagles are back? Washington's season seems to be trending in the opposite direction as Philly. They were in first place just two weeks ago, at 6-3 SU. But two losses later and there are more questions than answers. The biggest one is at the quarterback position where the team is still trying to get over the shock of losing Alex Smith for the rest of the season. I think veteran Colt McCoy has come in and played admirably though despite little time to prepare. He led two scoring drives in a 23-21 loss to Houston, then last week (on a very short turnaround) he completed 24 of 38 passes for 268 yards against Dallas (did have 3 INT's). I'm not convinced that this team is more than marginally worse w/ McCoy at QB than they were with Smith. Remember that Dallas defense just held Drew Brees in check! Though it gave up 31 pts to a surging Cowboys team on Thanksgiving, the Redskins still have a pretty good defense. That defense seems to travel well too as it gives up just 19.2 PPG on the road. I would not be surprised if this is a low-scoring game, which obviously then favors the underdog. The Eagles have not been good in the favorite role this season, going just 2-7 ATS w/ five outright losses. They have also failed to cover five straight home games. The Redskins are 6-2 ATS as underdogs this year w/ five outright wins. So the respective roles seem to suit Washington much better. The Eagles did sweep the season series LY, but it's pretty clear they aren't as strong a team in 2018. Remember they are decimated by injuries in the secondary. The defense is also allowing a league worst 6.03 yards per rush the L6 wks. McCoy and Washington have also had plenty of time to prepare here, having not played since Thanksgiving. Take the points. 10* Washington |
|||||||
12-02-18 | Chargers v. Steelers -3 | Top | 33-30 | Loss | -130 | 123 h 22 m | Show |
8* Pittsburgh (8:20 ET): Though slightly favored and at home, I get the sense that in the minds of the public, the Steelers are almost "underdogs" here. They lost last week, 24-17 at Denver. That loss came on the heels of what should be considered a very fortunate win at Jacksonville the week prior. However, investigating the box score from last week shows that the Steelers actually played well. They outgained the Broncos 527-308. The problem was they - specifically QB Ben Roethlisberger - could not protect the football and finished -4 in turnovers. It was a similar story w/ the escape in Jacksonville where they had a clear edge in total yds nearly undone by three TO's. Back at home Sunday night, I suspect the giveaways will cease. I'm going to lay the short number. Looking at the Chargers season, a pretty clear pattern emerges. They've beaten up on a lot of bad teams: Wins have come against the Cardinals, Raiders twice, Titans, Browns, 49ers and Bills. They did win at Seattle, but also lost at home to Denver. Their other two losses were to the Rams and Chiefs, two of the best teams in the league. The Steelers are stronger on paper than any team LA has beaten all year. Here, the Chargers will be going into a hostile environment w/o their top running back, Melvin Gordon. This is a big deal. The Steelers defense has been very good this year, the last six games in particular. The 24 pts allowed LW were the most since September. But they barely allowed over 300 total yds. They allowed fewer than 300 total yds each of the previous five games! For the year, the Steelers rank 6th in total defense. The Chargers are 9th, but have given up slightly less points (and done so against a far less challenging schedule). The Steelers give up slightly less yardage on a per play basis. The offenses are basically dead even in this matchup, but the Chargers take a major hit w/o RB Gordon. Remember that the last time the Steelers played at home, they absolutely destroyed Carolina, 52-21, and Big Ben had a near perfect passer rating. My call is that Roethlisberger cuts way down on the turnovers Sunday night and leads his team to a comfortable victory. Don't be surprised if he and fellow '04 Draft class alum Philip Rivers see each other again in the playoffs. 8* Pittsburgh |
|||||||
12-02-18 | Chiefs v. Raiders +15.5 | Top | 40-33 | Win | 100 | 119 h 0 m | Show |
8* Oakland (4:05 ET): This is obviously a real "hold your nose" and take the points kind of situation. Because of that, my analysis will be a little more brief than usual. That doesn't mean I like the play any less compared to any other normal selection, because I do like it quite a bit. It's just that there's little the Raiders or Chiefs have done this year that would convince rational minds that the former is the right side here. But this one is all about the number; testing the limits of how many points the public is willing to lay w/ a good team against a bad one, even if it is on the road. For me, this is an overlay. Take the points. Over the last 30 seasons, Kansas City has been a double-digit road favorite just twice. Once was back in 1992 against a historically bad Seahawks team. The other time was LY against the Giants (who finished 3-13). They did not cover either game. In fact, they lost outright to the Giants, 12-9 in overtime! The spread for this matchup against the Raiders is almost unprecedented in nature, at least for the Chiefs. They've never been favored by two touchdowns on the road as far back as I have data (1989). Oakland has been a double digit home dog six times in the last 10 seasons. The last time was just three weeks ago and they lost to the Chargers 20-6. They were only 10-pt dogs then and even got out to an early lead. Total yardage was basically even in that game, the difference was the Raiders turning it over twice in the red zone. The Raiders have never been a home dog of more than two touchdowns, so again, this line is somewhat unprecedented. Note ALL double digit home dogs have gone 82-65-5 ATS over the L30 seasons. There have only been 25 instances of a home team getting 14 or more points the L30 seasons and only one of those came since 2012. Kansas City is not w/o issue heading into this game. They will be w/o WR Sammy Watkins and RB Kareem Hunt finds himself embroiled in controversy after TMZ released video of him kicking and shoving a woman. Thus, his status for this game could be in doubt. Then you have a Chiefs defense that is surrendering 34.3 points and 457 yards per game on the road. They are allowing 6.7 yards per play. All those numbers rank near the bottom of the league. Oakland did win a game two weeks ago. So much for "brief analysis" ... I like this one! 8* Oakland |
|||||||
12-02-18 | Rams v. Lions +11 | Top | 30-16 | Loss | -128 | 116 h 2 m | Show |
10* Detroit (1:00 ET): The Rams are one of the top teams in the league and coming off their bye. Those two factors alone guarantee a large spread. But remember that the last time we saw them, they were winning perhaps the greatest NFL regular season game ever played, 54-51 over the Chiefs. So it's really not a surprise to see them so heavily favored this week in Detroit. But, to me, the oddsmakers know what the public likes and this looks like a classic overlay. Just two weeks ago, Detroit was my *10* Game of the Week and upset a Carolina team that had won five of its previous seven games. The Lions are also off a bit of a "mini-bye" here having last played a game on Thanksgiving. They're too good to be getting double digits at home. Take the points. Somewhat lost in the Rams' impressive 10-1 start to the season is that their heavily-hyped defense has been a clear disappointment. Twice in the last three weeks they've given up 45 or more points. Now those games were against the Saints & Chiefs, the two top offenses in the league. But they've also allowed 27 or more points in six of the last eight games. They allow a frightening 6.5 yards per play for the year and that number gets even higher when you factor out the first two teams they faced, Oakland and Arizona. So my point is that Detroit is going to be able to score plenty of points in this game. Add in what the oddsmakers are giving them & the Rams' offense will have to be at its best to cover this spread. The Lions had to withstand a failed two-point attempt to beat Carolina two weeks ago, 20-19. Well, they also could have easily upset Chicago Thanksgiving. But Matt Stafford threw a pick-six in the 4Q to lose the game, 23-16. Now that was against an offense led by backup QB Chase Daniel. I realize the Lions offense is no longer the same w/o WR Golden Tate (traded) and RB Kerryon Johnson (questionable to play here). But Matt Patricia's defense turned in multiple strong efforts in November and I think will be highly motivated here. The Rams have been favored by double digits only one other time this year - Week 2 at home vs. Arizona. The last time they closed as DD road favorites was the "Greatest Show on Turf" days. Detroit has not been a DD home dog since '09, Matt Stafford's rookie season (year after they went 0-16 SU). 10* Detroit |
|||||||
11-29-18 | Saints v. Cowboys +8 | Top | 10-13 | Win | 100 | 51 h 22 m | Show |
10* Dallas (8:20 ET): Anyone who has chosen to step in front of this Saints' train has been unsuccessful at the end of the day. Well, that's technically not true. I successfully played against them back in Week 1 when they lost outright, as 10-pt home favorites, 48-40 to Tampa Bay. But since then, they're a perfect 10-0 SU and ATS, ascending to the top of everyone's power rankings. If we're being honest, I've played against them the L2 wks, thinking they were laying too many points. Last week against Atlanta, they covered by a single point in a 31-17 victory. It should be pointed out that the Falcons lost THREE fumbles inside the red zone, which was basically the difference in the game. A game where they actually outgained the Saints, 366-312. At the very least, the -3 turnover margin cost Atlanta the cover. All of a sudden, Dallas appears to be in the drivers seat in the NFC East. They are 6-5 SU, tied w/ Washington (who they just beat) and one game up on Philadelphia (who they beat three weeks ago). They are my favorite to win the division as of now. Three straight wins have totally turned this team's season around. You have to be careful about too much stock into a relatively small sample size, but there is no denying that the Cowboys are peaking at the right time. Two of the team's three best offensive performances (in terms of points scored) have come in the last three games. Key has been the addition of WR Amari Cooper, who had 180 yds receiving last week. QB Dak Prescott has completed 70% of his passes during the win streak w/ no interceptions. It's a big break for Dallas getting the Saints outside of New Orleans. Yes, the Saints are unbeaten on the road, but the Cowboys are 4-1 SU at home, outscoring opponents by more than a TD per game. The Dallas defense has actually played well all season, giving up just 19.4 PPG. They'll obviously be tested severely by the Saints' offense here, but I think the 'Boys can limit them as the most pts they've allowed all season is 28. Just like the last couple weeks, I believe this is an overlay w/ New Orleans, who is due to play a close game. Expect a steady dose of Ezekiel Elliott from Dallas to control the clock. The Cowboys have not been a home dog of more than seven points since facing the Patriots in 2015. Meanwhile, New Orleans has actually not been favored on the road by more than a TD since 2013 (did not cover). 10* Dallas |
|||||||
11-26-18 | Titans v. Texans -3.5 | Top | 17-34 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
8* Houston (8:20 ET): Back in Week 2, these teams met and the Titans won 20-17 in Nashville. But a lot has changed since then. Houston actually started 0-3, but is now 7-3 SU and leads the division. I've got them favored in all but one of their remaining games (Week 16 at Philadelphia), so there's a pretty clear path for them to win the AFC South. But the first order of business is exacting some revenge on Tennessee. The Texans actually outgained the Titans 437-238 in that first meeting, so a case could be made that they were the better team that day. The game was decided by a Ryan Succop 31-yard field goal w/ one minute remaining. I don't see the Texans' seven-game win streak getting snapped Monday night. Lay the short number. It was two weeks ago that the Titans treated me quite nicely. They upset the Patriots, 34-10 as 6.5-pt underdogs. But that was at home. It was also the third straight Titans game I'd cashed a winning ticket. I had them plus the points in a cover vs. the Chargers (over in London) and also the Over when they appeared on MNF vs. Dallas two weeks ago. They beat the Cowboys 28-14 and then came another upset (over the Patriots). But just as the team seemed to be hitting its stride under 1st year HC Mike Vrabel, they laid a complete egg last week in a 38-10 loss at Indianapolis. This offense hasn't been particularly effective this year (28th in scoring) and only averages 16.3 PPG on the road. For me, the status of QB Marcus Mariota (elbow) is largely irrelevant to this play. (Though it would be nice to go against Blaine Gabbert. Houston hasn't exactly beaten a "murderer's row" during this 7-game win streak of theirs and all but two wins have been by 7 pts or less. But I think this has the potential to be one of their bigger wins - in terms of margin of victory - all year. This Titans offense really shouldn't scare anyone (check numbers above), but especially a Texans defense which is giving up just 19.7 PPG at home and has a top 10 pass rush. While both of these defenses are top six in yards per game allowed, Houston has a huge edge offensively. I realize that the Titans beat the Texans w/o Mariota back in Week 2, but with or w/o him here, I can't see them pulling off what would be their first season sweep of the Texans in a decade. 8* Houston |
|||||||
11-25-18 | Patriots v. Jets +10 | Top | 27-13 | Loss | -105 | 38 h 49 m | Show |
10* NY Jets (1:00 ET): With the Patriots off both a loss (a bad one to the Titans) and a bye, the expection here will be for them to win in a blowout. The 3-7 Jets have little to play for, though they too are off their bye and a bad loss before it. Their offense is averaging less than 11 PPG during a four game losing streak. Before the bye, they were crushed 41-10 by a Bills team starting Matt Barkley at QB, as a 7-pt home favorite no less. Then again, the Patriots certainly didn't look the part of a 6.5-pt road favorite when they were soundly beaten by Tennessee, 34-10, two weeks ago. This line has all the makings of an overlay as New England has struggled away from home this year and this rivalry has a history of close games. Take the points. The past five meetings here at MetLife Stadium have all been decided by seven points or less w/ the Jets winning outright twice. Despite winning only two of the past 10 meetings overall, the Jets have managed to go 8-2 ATS, so the Patriots are consistently overvalued in this rivalry. New England is 0-5 ATS the L5 visits here and has certainly struggled on the road this year w/ bad losses to Jacksonville, Detroit and Tennessee. The only road win this year that came by more than seven points was against the hapless Bills and even that game saw the offense get held to just four field goals through three quarters. Down 18-6, Buffalo was driving late in the fourth quarter to make it a one-score game. But the Patriots got a fortunate pick-six from Derek Anderson to seal the game. The Titans provided a nice blueprint for how to beat New England. Clearly, it involves forcing Tom Brady out of the pocket and making him uncomfortable. This Jets defense should be able to do that, although it hasn't forced a single turnover the L4 weeks. The key will be whether or not the Jets can score enough points. It looks like Josh McCown may start at QB as rookie Sam Darnold is still hurt. I wouldn't mind the move anyway considering Darnold's stuggles so far. But what I most lean on is the fact that my power rankings have this spread at 7.5, making the Jets the biggest value bet on the board this season. 10* NY Jets |
|||||||
11-25-18 | 49ers v. Bucs -2.5 | Top | 9-27 | Win | 100 | 38 h 48 m | Show |
8* Tampa Bay (1:00 ET): The Bucs' offense has managed to gain more than 1,000 yds the last two weeks, yet somehow managed to lose both games. That "somehow" can be directly traced to eight turnovers and a QB carousel that has reached almost preposterous proportions. For those keeping score at home, it will be Jameis Winston starting this week. Winston was suspended for the first four games this season and Ryan Fitzpatrick did pretty well in his place. Well, at least for two games. Then Fitzmagic ran out of tricks, which happened to be the first game Winston was eligible to return. Unfortunately, "Famous Jameis" was no better than a struggling Fitzpatrick so Dirk Koetter (a desperate HC, if there ever was one) went back to Fitzpatrick. That didn't last long as Fitzpatrick was bad last week and was removed for Winston, who ALMOST led a big comeback against the Giants. As sad as this all sounds, I expect the Winston-led Bucs to play well this week. We know the offense can move the ball (and even sometimes score). Two weeks ago, TB had one of the more confounding box scores in recent memory as they outgained Washington 501-286, yet lost 16-3. (They were -4 in turnovers). Last week, they outgained the Giants 510-359, yet were again -4 in TO's and lost 38-35 (at one point, trailed by 17). But with Winston under center, the offense scored touchdowns on four consecutive drives. Winston completed 12 of 16 passes for 199 yards. He did throw one INT, but w/ 23 seconds remaining. Bottom line is that Winston is going to be the more consistent option for the Bucs QB, at least for the rest of 2018. I think San Francisco, specifically QB Nick Mullens, is still getting too much residual credit for one performance against the terrible Raiders. The follow-up act wasn't very good as the Niners lost at home to the Giants, 27-23. Mullens wasn't nearly as good the second time around, throwing a couple of picks. Mullens is of course the third different starting QB for San Fran after both Garoppolo and Beatherd were lost to season-ending injuries. The Niners have yet to win a road game this year, largely due to giving up over 28 PPG. Two things really work in Tampa Bay's favor here. One is the game is at home where they're a more respectable 2-2 SU this year. Number two is while the Bucs have the most TO's in the league, San Fran has the fewest takeaways. 8* Tampa Bay |
|||||||
11-22-18 | Falcons +13.5 v. Saints | Top | 17-31 | Loss | -115 | 53 h 35 m | Show |
8* Atlanta (8:20 ET): Playing against the Saints can be hazardous to one's health these days and I found that out the hard way on Sunday as I made the big-time mistake of taking the Eagles. New Orleans beat the Super Bowl Champs 48-7 (game did stay Under!) as seven-point favorites to improve to 9-1 SU/8-2 ATS on the season. They've covered eight in a row, a streak that probably has them on top of everyone's power rankings (I know they're #1 in mine). But as great as the Saints are, this is a pretty insane number for them to be laying against the division rival Falcons. Obviously an adjustment had to be made by the oddsmakers after last week's result, but I don't think for a second that Atlanta is six points worse than Philly. In fact, they're a better team at the stage of the game. I can say the Falcons are better than the Eagles, but the reality is both teams are 4-6 SU. That said, the Falcons are better and have the benefit of already playing the Saints earlier in the year. Now they lost, 43-37, but were actually 1.5-pt favorites in that game and it went to overtime. Atlanta even had the lead late before Drew Brees tied the game up w/ a 7-yd TD run w/ just over a minute to go in regulation, capping an 81-yard drive. That was in Week 3 and the Saints haven't lost or failed to cover a game since. But I don't think the Falcons should be considered a full touchdown worse now than they were in September. Sure, they've lost six games, but four of those were by six points or fewer. Sunday's 22-19 home loss to Dallas was pretty brutal for the Falcons as they now probably have to win out to have any shot at making the playoffs. I certainly don't think the team is just going to roll over and quit, not after coming back from a 19-9 deficit to tie the game against the Cowboys and not against their biggest division rival in a national TV game. Losing each of the last two weeks (as favorites) has definitely inflated this number along w/ the Saints winning ways. But this Falcons team is rarely an underdog (happened only twice this season) and they've never been getting more than 3.5 pts against any other opponent. There have been only four times in the Matt Ryan era (2008-) where they've been a double digit dog and they've covered every time. 8* Atlanta |
|||||||
11-22-18 | Redskins +7.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 23-31 | Loss | -115 | 49 h 2 m | Show |
10* Washington (4:30 ET): In the span of roughly one hour last Sunday, the entire landscape of the NFC East changed. The Redskins, who came into the day w/ a 6-3 SU record and in first place, lost starting QB Alex Smith for the rest of the season due to a gruesome leg injury. That's not all they lost on Sunday though as they also dropped a game to the Houston Texans, 23-21 at home. While that was taking place, the Cowboys came from behind to beat the Falcons (in Atlanta), 22-19, for a second straight HUGE road win (won at Philly the week prior). Now the perception is that the division is Dallas' to lose and because of the Smith injury, they're big favorites on Thanksgiving Day. I think this line is a classic overreaction to an injury and will grab the points w/ Washington. My own power rankings indicate this should be about a 4-point spread. I don't think that going from Smith to Colt McCoy at QB should move the line much, if at all, and certainly not by more than a field goal. I thought McCoy came in and played well against the Texans, considering the circumstances. TE Jordan Reed became a bigger part of the passing game w/ McCoy under center. McCoy entered when Washington was down 10 and engineered two scoring drives to get his team the lead for a brief time. You also have to remember that Washington has a pretty good defense, one that allows just 19.8 PPG. The only teams to score more than 23 pts against the Redskins this year are the Saints & Falcons. Dallas lost the first meeting w/ Washington, 20-17, thanks to the usual Jason Garrett ineptitude and a missed FG on the final play. I am very interested to see how the Cowboys perform here on the heels of two big upset wins on the road. They've failed to cover each of the last three times they've been favored, losing two of the games outright. This will be the most points they've been asked to lay in any game so far this season and it comes against a division rival that's already beaten them once before. The Cowboys offense is only averaging 20.3 PPG, so in what should be a low-scoring division game, taking the points sure seems like the way to go. The Redskins are a money-making 6-1 ATS as underdogs already this season. 10* Washington |
|||||||
11-19-18 | Chiefs v. Rams -3 | Top | 51-54 | Push | 0 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
10* LA Rams (8:20 ET): I have to say that I'm kind of shocked to see how "trendy" an underdog Kansas City is in this spot. I understand that the Chiefs are one of the league's top teams and they are a perfect 3-0 ATS as underdogs this year. Overall, they've covered 8 of 10 games this season, giving them the best ATS record in the league. But have we forgotten how good the Rams are? The Rams have been favored in every game this season and while they've shown some "cracks" defensively in recent weeks, that's nothing compared to the issues on that side of the ball for Kansas City. The Chiefs rank 30th in the league in yards per game and eventually that's going to catch up with them. Facing a top three scoring offense seems like a likely place. Lay the points. The Rams also get a break here in that this game was originally set to take place in Mexico City, but had to be moved to LA due to poor field conditions. So the Rams now get an added game at home where they are already 5-0 and outscoring opponents by 12 PPG. Unlike most Chiefs' opponents, the Rams have an offense that can trade points here. The respective scoring averages from the two offenses here are very similar. Remember that the only team to beat the Rams was insanely hot New Orleans and that was a 45-35 game in the Superdome. The Rams have played a much tougher slate of games than the Chiefs recently and the one loss, coupled with some close calls, have contributed to the public perception that they're not as "hot" right now. While they're 1-5 ATS the L6 games, I think that's nonsense. Since losing to the Patriots, Kansas City has played: Cincinnati, Denver, Cleveland and Arizona - all teams w/ losing records and only the Cleveland game was on the road. The Chiefs' offense was surprisingly held to a season-low 26 points last week, by the Cardinals of all teams. While Kansas City has been pretty lethal as an underdog (8-2 ATS w/ seven outright wins L10 times), this is their toughest game of the season. The Rams played theirs two weeks ago and while they came up short, I still have them rated as the better team here. Thus, now at home, I'll gladly lay a short number. Kansas City's defensive issues will catch up with them here. 10* LA Rams |
|||||||
11-18-18 | Vikings v. Bears -1 | Top | 20-25 | Win | 100 | 26 h 57 m | Show |
8* Chicago (8:20 ET): I think it would be fair to say that there's a sense a skepticism concerning the pro football team from the Windy City. The Bears are 6-3 SU and lead the NFC North, but they've gotten to three games above .500 by beating the Jets, Bills and Lions. Still, all three wins did come in pretty convincing fashion (all by 12 or more pts) and the Bears now own a point differential (+94) that's better than all but three other teams in the league (Chiefs, Rams and Saints). Sunday night will most certainly be labeled as a "prove it" game to the national audience and I think they pass the test at home. They've got revenge for a pair of losses to the Vikings last season and have generally been just the better team here in 2018. I'm going to lay the short number. Minnesota also has a top five defense and beat Detroit in their last game. Their win over the Lions, 24-9, came two weeks ago as they're coming off a bye here. So a lot of people are going to love the situation from their perspective. But under Mike Zimmer, the team is just 1-3 ATS off a bye, including playoffs. The Vikings would be ahead of the Bears in the division if not for that embarrassing loss to Buffalo (at home) back in Week 3. Their only other two defeats came against the Rams and Saints. The only reason that people might seem "down" on this team is because they went 13-3 SU a year ago and added Kirk Cousins. They're a good team, but when it comes to the division, I just think this is going to be the Bears' year. Remember that early in the season, I called for Chicago to be a sleeper playoff team. The key was finally firing John Fox and replacing him w/ an offensive mind like Matt Nagy. A relatively soft schedule has helped. But since Week 4, this Bears offense has led the league in points per game at 34.3. QB Mitchell Trubisky has 19 TD passes during that time and is coming off a career-best performance LW vs. the Lions. While both defenses here are top five in yards allowed, the Bears are allowing fewer points per game and overall have been the better unit. This is the biggest game for the Bears in years and its at home on a Sunday night. Doubted on a national level, they'll show up and deliver. 8* Chicago |
|||||||
11-18-18 | Eagles +9.5 v. Saints | Top | 7-48 | Loss | -120 | 90 h 45 m | Show |
10* Philadelphia (4:25 ET): Needless to say, less than one year removed from winning the Super Bowl, the Eagles did not bank on being in this position. That position being more than a touchdown underdog to an opponent. Now this is opponent is New Orleans, who is at home and historically lethal in the Mercedes Benz Superdome. The Saints also come into this one on an eight-game SU and ATS win streak. Since losing Week 1 (here at home) to Tampa Bay, they've outscored opponents by almost two touchdowns per game. Most, including myself, have them as the top team in the league right now. In their last home game, Drew Brees and company beat the Rams (pretty handily) to take over that honor. Last week, they obliterated Cincinnati on the road, 51-14. So the Eagles, only 4-5 SU and off a primetime loss to Dallas, definitely are "up against it" a bit here. Even though the NFC East is weak overall, with Washington currently 6-3, Philly's season is very much hanging in the balance here (although they still play the Redskins twice). I do have to say that this spread did require a bit of a double take. And in handicapping the matchup, I uncovered a key trend that only confirmed my belief that the road dog is the correct play here. The last five times the previous year's Super Bowl winner was a dog of seven or more in a game (and this is obviously a rare spot), that team has covered the spread four times. I think the Eagles are being undervalued here. You have to remember that on their run to the SB last season, they were an underdog in every playoff game. Last week's outright loss to Dallas dropped the Eagles to 2-8 ATS the L10 times they have been favored (w/ 5 outright losses). But as an underdog, they have covered six straight times (this excludes Wk 17 LY when they rested starters). They've been favored in every game this year with one exception, Week 1 vs. Atlanta (a game they won 18-12). This team still has Carson Wentz at QB, a relatively strong defense (20.3 PPG allowed) and all five losses have been by seven points or less. Another good trend here is that teams off a SU loss by 14+ pts on Sunday or Monday Night Football this year have gone 8-2 ATS the following week. Yes, I'll jump in front of the New Orleans' train. Take the points. 10* Philadelphia |
|||||||
11-18-18 | Panthers v. Lions +4 | Top | 19-20 | Win | 100 | 115 h 11 m | Show |
10* Detroit (1:00 ET): Both of these teams would just as soon burn the Week 10 film as Carolina got hammered 52-21 in Pittsburgh Thursday night while the Lions lost in Chicago, 34-22. For the Lions that final score was actually a bit misleading considering they were down 26-0 midway through the second quarter. Either way, it was still a third straight double digit loss for Matt Patricia's team, whose season is basically on the brink this week as the team is 3-6 SU overall. Even after losing by 31, the Panthers are still in okay shape at 6-3 SU, but I've had my doubts about just how good this team is. On the road, they're now just 1-3 SU/ATS and averaging 20.7 PPG. That one win was a come from behind effort in Philadelphia, a game where they trailed 17-0 in the 4Q. It wasn't the Carolina offense that had the problem in Pittsburgh, though their 21 pts scored were the lowest in a game since the last time they played on the road. In fact, they haven't scored more than 24 all season on the road. Rather, it was the defense getting torched for 52 points and 457 total yards. Excluding the Steelers running out the clock to end the 1st half, they scored on each of their first seven drives. Now, whether or not the Detroit offense can have a big day remains to be seen. But one thing that would certainly help the Lions here is protecting the football. Twice in the last three weeks, they've finished w/ a -3 TO ratio. Keep in mind that the Lions have been a home dog to only one other team all season. That would be New England back in Week 3, a Sunday night game where they pulled a massive 26-10 upset as seven-point chalk. Few saw that one coming. The Lions' last two road games have been on the road. The last time they were at home, I actually played against them and they lost 28-14 to Seattle. But that game saw them turn the ball over TWICE in the end zone. Again, protecting the football is paramount here (as it is for any NFL game). Carolina has won a lot of close games the L2 seasons and has only outscored their opponents by seven points for the year. Take the points. 10* Detroit. |
|||||||
11-18-18 | Steelers v. Jaguars +7 | Top | 20-16 | Win | 100 | 115 h 11 m | Show |
8* Jacksonville (1:00 ET): What is heaven's name has gone wrong with the Jaguars? After Week 2, this team was perceived as a legit threat to win the AFC as they'd just avenged LY's Championship Game loss to New England, beating the Patriots pretty handily, 31-20. But as you know, Week 2 was a LONG time ago. Since then, the Jags have lost six of seven, including five straight. Their only win during that time was against the lowly Jets. Last week saw them get knocked off by the division rival Colts, 29-26, a game where the once-proud defense was torched for all 29 pts in the first half. The task gets no tougher this week as the Jags play Pittsburgh. But the game is at home and the number is inflated. I'm going to take a "flier" on the dog here as they look to salvage their season. Salvaging the season is still a possibility for Jacksonville, mind you. Their next two games are: at Buffalo and a rematch w/ Indy at home. So if they were to win here, they could easily be back at .500 after 12 games. I have no idea what went wrong w/ the defense in the 1H last week, though it isn't exactly refreshing to hear the personnel refer to the mistakes as "brain farts". What I do know is they shut the Colts out in the 2H. Maybe this defense isn't what it was a year ago, but it's a prideful bunch and I think they'll bounce back. Of course, we also need the offense to get back on track as well with QB Blake Bortles being the biggest offender. The good news is RB Leonard Fournette is back in the lineup and prior to last week's loss, the team was 2-0 SU w/ him on the field and 1-5 SU without. For Pittsburgh, this is obviously a double revenge game. They lost twice to the Jaguars last year, including at home in the Divisional Round of the playoffs. If you recall, I had a sizable play on Jacksonville in that playoff meeting. Pittsburgh is definitely hot right now and with the double revenge angle, figures to be a popular side this week. They've won and covered five straight games following a 1-2-1 SU start. But, as noted earlier, this line is inflated. The Steelers have not won a road game this year by more than seven points and under HC Tomlin they are just 7-18 ATS all-time as a road favorite of six or more points. Take the points here with a desperate dog. 8* Jacksonville |
|||||||
11-15-18 | Packers v. Seahawks -2.5 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 22 h 40 m | Show |
8* Seattle (8:20 ET): This could prove to be an incredibly important game for two teams on the fringes of playoff contention. Seattle has played better than its 4-5 SU record indicates. They've actually outscored teams by 27 points. The issue is they've gone only 1-4 SU in games decided by seven points or less. The other loss was by eight to a very talented Chargers team, here in the last home game. Last week, for a second time this year, they lost to the mighty Rams in a close affair despite putting up 31 points. While I feel the Seahawks may very well be "underrated," I'm not so sure I can say the same for Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. In fact, I think quite the opposite. Their four wins feature two miracle come from behind efforts (against Chicago & San Fran), both at home. Their other two wins are against Buffalo & Miami, two terrible teams. I think you can tell which way I'm leaning here. Seattle is deserving of far more respect here at home, especially considering Green Bay's 0-4 SU road record. Lay the short number. With five home games left, Seattle is definitely still capable of making some noise. They're only 1-2 SU at home so far, but the two losses were to the Rams & Chargers, two of the league's best. It seems like eons ago, but their only home win this year came in Week 3 against Dallas. Despite this, the Seahawks remain a team to be feared at Century Link Field where they've won 27 of their last 37 games, particularly in primetime. Another reason to like them is they simply do not lose three games in a row very often. The last time it happened was 2011, the year before Russell Wilson arrived. Since then, they've gone 6-0 SU/ATS when off B2B losses, including that home win over Dallas back in Wk 3. Seattle has the league's top ranked rushing attack at 152.2 YPG. Expect them to exploit a Packers' run defense that ranks in the bottom third of the league, giving up 4.5 yards per carry. That YPC average is what's huge because no team runs the ball more than Seattle. Last week against Miami, even though they won 31-12, Green Bay surrendered 131 yds on just 23 carries (Dolphins had to abandon the run when they fell behind). Over the last four weeks, they've given up 141.5 yards per game on the ground. Again, the Pack have not won a road game this year. They've allowed 30.5 PPG in the four losses. West Coast teams usually have an edge facing non-West Coast teams in primetime games (look up Circadian Advantage). 8* Seattle |
|||||||
11-12-18 | Giants +3.5 v. 49ers | Top | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
10* NY Giants (8:15 ET): For a second straight week, the 49ers find themselves involved in a less than stellar primetime matchup. Only this time QB Nick Mullens is more of a "selling point." Making his 1st career start last Thursday vs. Oakland, Mullens stunned just about everyone by throwing for 262 yards and three touchdowns in 34-3 win, just the Niners' second victory of the year. Statistically speaking, it was considered the finest debut by any QB in league history. That's made all the more impressive by the fact Mullens is an undrafted free agent that spent time on the practice squad. But he won't be sneaking up on anybody this time, even if "anybody" means the lowly 1-7 Giants, who are about as desperate for a win as a team could possibly be. They're off a bye and I'll take the points. No matter what Odell Beckham Jr says, the Giants aren't going to make the playoffs. But with this game and hosting Tampa Bay next week, they at least have some winnable games on the horizon. Eli Manning's days as a viable starter in this league are over, but it's inexcusable how poorly this offense has performed given the talent at the skill positions, whether you're talking Beckham or Saquon Barkley. It's not all Manning's fault mind you; the offensive line is bad as well. However, something to keep in mind here is that the Giants are a better team than the Raiders, who basically laid down last Thursday vs. the 49ers. I expect effort from the G-Men coming off the bye. Another important point when handicapping this game is the line itself. The 49ers actually closed as a slight dog vs. the Raiders for the Thurs night home game. But off the shockingly great performance from Mullens, they are now favorites this week. That's critical to note because the Niners are money-burning 1-12 ATS as chalk w/ eight outright losses. Again, the Giants have had plenty of time to prepare for Mullens, a luxury the Raiders did not have. The Giants have lost a number of one score games this season while SF had not won a game by more than three points in 2018 before facing the Raiders. The Giants are the play here. 10* NY Giants |
|||||||
11-11-18 | Chargers v. Raiders +11 | Top | 20-6 | Loss | -135 | 119 h 59 m | Show |
10* Oakland (4:05 ET): Ok, so I KNOW what you're already saying. "Not the Raiders!" This team has certainly become somewhat of a "dumpster fire" here in 2018 w/ HC Jon Gruden totally dismantling the roster and the results (1-7 SU record) speak for themselves. But I have tremendous faith in my own personal power rankings and they say that - getting double digits at home - the Raiders are a tremendous value this week. Consider for a moment that when they played the Chargers out in LA last month, they were "only" a six-point dog. Now they lost the game 26-10 and have certainly not played much better since. But this is a ton of points at home. Take 'em. The Chargers are a hot team right now as they've won five straight to get to 6-2 SU on the year. They are off perhaps their most impressive victory to date, 25-17 at Seattle. Before that, the list of teams that Los Angeles had beaten - Bills, 49ers, Raiders, Browns, Titans - wasn't all that impressive. Note that LW's game in Seattle hinged on an INT return for a TD early in the 4Q. But total yds were relatively even in that game (375-356 in favor of the Chargers). To me, this sets up to be the classic "trap game" for the Lightning Bolts, who have not been DD road favorites since 2009. Three of their last five victories have been by eight points or less. Oakland was humiliated on national TV in its last game, a 34-3 loss to a 49ers team starting a 3rd string QB. That was on a Thursday, so at least they've had extra time to prepare here. As bad as things look right now for the Raiders, this is a division game coming on the heels of being mocked by everyone for a terrible effort. If they can't "get up" for this game, then you might as well just move them to Vegas on Monday. Too many points, not to take here. 10* Oakland |
|||||||
11-11-18 | Falcons v. Browns +7 | Top | 16-28 | Win | 100 | 29 h 47 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (1:00 ET): There was a brief glimmer of hope early in the season (started 2-2-1), but it's back to the "same old Browns" as Cleveland has lost four in a row coming into this week. They fired both their HC (Hue Jackson) and OC (Todd Haley) two weeks ago, but that hardly mattered as the defense couldn't stop Kansas CIty in a 37-21 loss on Sunday. But few teams have been able to stop the Chiefs' offense this season. What's interesting here is that the lookahead line for this game had Cleveland getting only two points from the oddsmakers. After another blowout loss and Atlanta crushing Washington last week, the spread has moved substantially. To the point where now I believe we're getting some nice value w/ the Browns. Take the points. The Falcons have fought their way back to 4-4 SU, winning three in a row. I don't think there's any denying that they are off their best game of the season, a 38-14 win over the Redskins where they rolled up nearly 500 total yds on a pretty good defense. But it was also the first time all season that Atlanta won a game by more than seven points. This is the second of back to back road games for the team, a situation they have not yet faced in 2018 and won't be in again for the rest of the season. Meanwhile, Cleveland is getting to play a second straight home game. The knock on Atlanta for years is that they aren't as good outdoors and Cleveland should be pretty chilly on Sunday. Incredibly, the Browns are on a 13-game ATS losing streak in the month of November. They have a banged up secondary coming into this game, which isn't good when facing a QB like Matt Ryan. But, despite the lack of success, the Browns have been largely competitive this season. They've gone to overtime FOUR times (1-2-1) and only three of their nine games have been decided by more than four points. All three have been in the last four weeks. I like the spot here and expect them to be competitive as QB Baker Mayfield actually played well last week, throwing for almost 300 yards. The Browns' defense is better than what it showed last week and has forced 23 turnovers on the year, a league-high. Meanwhile, the Atlanta defense is still 4th worst in the league in efficiency due to a combo of injuries and a tough schedule. The Falcons were 1-3 ATS as road favorites of a FG or more last season. 8* Cleveland |
|||||||
11-11-18 | Lions +7.5 v. Bears | Top | 22-34 | Loss | -135 | 29 h 47 m | Show |
8* Detroit (1:00 ET): Another game where the line has shifted somewhat significantly from the lookahead. In this instance, the Bears are now favored over the Lions by about a touchdown, rather than a field goal. The shift has a lot to do w/ last week as the Bears routed Buffalo (41-9) while the Lions lost at Minnesota, 24-9. But sometimes looks can be deceiving as Chicago was actually outgained by the Bills (264-190) only to feast on Nathan Peterman turnovers, two of which were returned for touchdowns. Meanwhile, Detroit wasn't as bad as the final score showed last week. They had more first downs than the Vikings, but unfortunately allowed QB Matt Stafford to be sacked 10 times. The Lions have beaten the Bears 9 of the last 10 meetings. Take the points. With Chicago now "expected" to win, let's see how they perform. At the start of the year, this was a team that I said could surprise and get to 9-7 SU and the playoffs. That's precisely the trajectory that we're looking at right now. Perhaps their 5-3 SU record should not come as any shock seeing as they've been favored in six of their eight games. It's impressive that they are 5-3 ATS, but now the spreads are starting to get bigger. While they did cover last week as big road favorites, as I mentioned there were extenuating circumstances there. Before the last two weeks, only one of their games (a 48-10 win over Tampa Bay) had been decided by more than seven points. I'm just not convinced this team is ready to cover a third straight game as a big favorite. Detroit should have the edge at QB in this game. The Bears' Mitchell Trubisky threw for only 355 yards (total) the last two weeks. For Chicago, this could be a lookahead spot as they have a huge home game vs. Minnesota next week (for 1st place in the NFC North). Meanwhile, Matt Patricia's Lions are fighting for relevancy. Another loss for them and the season would basically be over at 3-6 SU. We should be getting their best shot. I just feel this number is an overreaction to the final scores we've seen from both sides the L2 wks. Detroit isn't as bad and Chicago isn't as good as we've seen during that time. 8* Detroit |
|||||||
11-11-18 | Patriots v. Titans +7.5 | Top | 10-34 | Win | 100 | 29 h 47 m | Show |
8* Tennessee (1:00 ET): The Titans picked up a much needed win on MNF, going to Dallas and beating the Cowboys 28-14 as 4-pt underdogs. Now they're on a short week against the Patriots, who are off a primetime win themselves, theirs coming Sunday night at home against Green Bay. While facing Bill Belichick on a short week is hardly ideal, at least the Titans have a former player for Belichick on their sidelines in the form of HC Mike Vrabel. So that helps. So too does getting this game in Nashville where they've won 12 of their last 15 games. New England hasn't been nearly as impressive on the road this year, losing at both Detroit and Jacksonville and needing a tackle on the 1-yd line to win in Chicago. Their lone road win this year by more than seven points was in Buffalo and even then they needed a late "pick-six" to cover. Take the points. Two of Tennessee's four losses this year have been by a single point. They have just one loss by more than seven points and that was the last time they played a home game, three weeks ago vs. Baltimore (lost 21-0). That game saw them get completely overwhelmed by the Ravens' top-ranked defense, but I don't see that happening again here. Also, in four road games, the Patriots offense has only scored seven touchdowns, three of those in one game (Chicago). The Titans have a really good defense having not allowed more than 20 pts in regulation since Week 1. Another key factor in handicapping this game is Tennessee had its bye two weeks ago, so they are relatively "fresh." New England has yet to have its bye (comes next week) and is playing a 10th consecutive week. Both teams won by two touchdowns last week, but for the Patriots, things were actually much closer than they ended up. The game was tied 17-17 and Green Bay was marching down for the go-ahead score when they fumbled the ball away. Meanwhile, the Titans largely dominated the Cowboys, outgaining them 340-297 and holding them scoreless in the second half. The Titans' offensive numbers for the year may not seem that impressive, but few teams have faced a tougher slate of defenses and they just scored their season high in points. The New England defense isn't that great as they have given up over six yards per play on the road. I'm actually expecting this to be a pretty low-scoring game, which will give the Titans a chance at the upset. 8* Tennessee |
|||||||
11-04-18 | Chargers v. Seahawks +1 | Top | 25-17 | Loss | -108 | 43 h 41 m | Show |
8* Seattle (4:05 ET): This is a good matchup of two teams that appear to be playoff caliber. Seattle won big for me last week as my *10* Game of the Week, going into Detroit and winning outright (were three point dogs) 28-14. After an 0-2 start, the Seahawks have won four of five and what's most impressive about that is only one of their last four games was played here at Century Link Field. Ironically, that happens to be the last loss they suffered, but it was by only two against the still unbeaten Rams. So much for the breakup of the "Legion of Boom" as this defense is giving up just 18.7 points and 327.3 yards per game, both top five marks in the league. QB Russell Wilson continues to make plays for an offense averaging 28.3 PPG the last three weeks. LA is 5-2. Their only losses have been to the Chiefs and Rams. Somewhat uncharacteristic, but the Chargers are 2-0 in games decided by three points or less. (For years, they have had one of the worst records in close games). But while there's no shame in losing to teams like the Chiefs and Rams, let's take a look at those five teams the Chargers have defeated: Buffalo, San Francisco, Oakland, Cleveland and Tennessee. Those are all teams with losing records and four of them (sans Tennessee) just might be bottom five teams in the league. They barely survived Tennessee over in London two weeks ago, needing to stop a 2-pt conversion attempt on the game's final play (won 20-19). Despite being off a bye, RB Melvin Gordon is questionable to play this week. Seattle enjoys one of the league's strongest homefield advantages, so I'm surprised they're not favored here. Through the years, it's been exceedingly rare to get the Seahawks laying three points or less at home. They were underdogs to the Rams, easily covering the spread there. Their only other home game was a 24-13 win over Dallas. The offense has run for 155+ yards in four straight games. The Chargers' run defense did allow 164 yards on 33 carries to the Titans, so they might be susceptible. The Chargers have not beaten a good team yet this year, so I give the Seahawks a significant edge at home. 8* Seattle |
|||||||
11-04-18 | Steelers v. Ravens -2.5 | Top | 23-16 | Loss | -118 | 113 h 57 m | Show |
10* Baltimore (1:00 ET): Pittsburgh won big for me last week, as expected, beating Cleveland 33-18 as 8-pt favorites. I thought it was an ideal spot to play the Steelers as they were coming off a bye, at home, and the Browns had just played their fourth overtime game of the season. Plus, they'd actually drastically outplayed Cleveland in a tie earlier in the season. As it turns out, the Browns wound up firing BOTH their head coach and offensive coordinator after the game. This week is a far less ideal spot for the Black & Gold as they head to Baltimore to face the rival Ravens. Baltimore has dropped B2B games to fall to 4-4 SU, but they did win in Pittsburgh earlier in the year. I took the Ravens in that first meeting as they rolled to a 26-14 win and cover. I expect the rematch to go pretty similarly. After that win in Pittsburgh, the Ravens looked like one of the best teams in the AFC as they were 3-1. But they've since dropped three of four, two of the losses coming in brutal fashion. One was in overtime at Cleveland, a 12-9 final. The other was at home vs. New Orleans where usually sure-footed kicker Justin Tucker missed what would have been the game-tying XP in the final minute of regulation. Last week was the team's weakest effort of the year as they went down in Carolina 36-21. Being -3 in turnovers did them no favors there. The Ravens defense continues to lead the league in scoring (17.1 PPG allowed) and is the ONLY one in the league allowing fewer than 300 YPG. That will come in quite handy this week for their biggest game of the year. The Ravens haven't lost B2B games very often under HC John Harbaugh. They did so twice last year, but both times they came back w/ a double digit victory the next game. Only having to lay a short number w/ them at home here is quite ideal as they're 5-2 SU and ATS the L7 times as a home favorite of three points or less. They really dominated that first meeting in Pittsburgh, outgaining the Steelers 451-284 w/ a 24-14 edge in first downs. Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger fractured his index finger last week and while he's going to be on the field, don't think it won't negatively impact his play. 10* Baltimore |
|||||||
11-04-18 | Chiefs v. Browns +9 | Top | 37-21 | Loss | -105 | 39 h 60 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (1:00 ET): The Browns were my top go against last week as I was on the Steelers. I thought it was a horrible spot for the Browns as Pittsburgh was off a bye and they were off their fourth OT game of the year w/ the defense having played a season-high 95 snaps. The Browns couldn't beat the Steelers at home in Week 1 despite a torrential downpour and being +5 in turnovers. Turns out, I was right. Cleveland lost 33-18 (scored a garbage-time TD) and subsequently fired its head coach (Hue Jackson) and OC (Todd Haley). DC Gregg Williams now takes over as the interim, trying desperately to provide a spark for a team that has lost three in a row. The Browns have an exciting rookie QB in Baker Mayfield, but let's face it: this has been the most miserable franchise in the entire NFL for two decades. Meanwhile, things couldn't be any more different for Kansas City. They are one of top teams in the league, led by QB Patrick Mahomes, who has thrown 4 TD passes in three straight games. The Chiefs lead the league in offense, averaging 36.2 points per game. There has been only one game where they didn't score at least 30 points and their only loss was by a field goal at New England. But if there is one albatross, it's a defense that is permitting 432.4 yards per game. Despite that great offense, the Chiefs have actually been outgained on the year as the defense ranks 31st. They've been outgained in six of eight games overall! Cleveland has struggled to close games, but they've lost only twice by more than a field goal, one of those last week. The Browns' defense has been quite opportunistic, leading the league w/ 22 forced turnovers. The pass defense has been one of the best in the league, particularly at home where visiting QB's are posting the lowest QBR in the league. Really, the team should have a better record than 2-5-1. I mentioned last week that it looked as if Mayfield had been regressing, well now he's freed from the Jackson-Haley power struggle. This is simply too many points for KC to lay on the road as I expect the Browns to play inspired after the coaching change. 8* Cleveland |
|||||||
11-01-18 | Raiders +3 v. 49ers | Top | 3-34 | Loss | -125 | 29 h 5 m | Show |
8* Oakland (8:20 ET): What a terrible Thursday night matchup this is. We have the 1-6 Raiders, clearly going through an .. ahem .. "transitional" phase under HC Jon Gruden. Then there's 1-7 49ers, who are as decimated by injury as any team in the league. While they're by no means playing "well," my view is that Oakland is the better team here and their issues are more correctable. San Francisco's season basically ended when QB Jimmy Garoppolo went down w/ an ACL injury. Backup CJ Beathard certainly wasn't capable of saving things, especially w/ an injury riddled supporting cast. Now Beathard is hurt too and may not be able to play Thursday. That means it could be third string QB Nick Mullens making his first career start. Yikes. The Raiders actually led at the half in each of the first three games, only to lose every time, before finally picking up a win (in overtime) at the Browns' expense. Since that win, things have not gone well w/ three straight double digit losses, another Gruden trade and reports of malcontent in the locker room. The fact of the matter is that the Khalil Mack trade (right before the start of the reg season) set an ominous tone. But the team has actually played well in spots for Gruden. Not against the Chargers or the Seahawks in London, mind you, but last week they led Indianapolis into the fourth quarter. QB Derek Carr certainly played well, accounting for 4 TD passes. Carr is completing 72% of his passes this season. Carr will certainly be better than whomever the 49ers trot out at the QB position. Beathard injured his thumb in Sunday's 18-15 loss to Arizona. Note that Cardinals team has two wins in 2018 and both were at the 49ers' expense. Mullens has never taken a NFL regular season snap and things are so dire here that the team has signed Tom Savage to be a backup! Right now, San Francisco is as talent bereft as any team in the league. As bad as things have been for the Raiders, they've actually only been favored in one game and that was the one they won against Cleveland. So it's not like they're falling short of oddsmakers' expectations. They're underdogs again this week, but the 49ers are simply not a team that deserves to be favored at this point. 8* Oakland |
|||||||
10-29-18 | Patriots v. Bills +14 | Top | 25-6 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 10 m | Show |
10* Buffalo (8:20 ET): This is a real "hold your nose and take the points" type situation. But before you go and write off this Bills chances here, be aware that they weren't as bad as the final score showed last week vs. Indianapolis. Total yardage was only -73 and the offense gained a strong 5.51 yards per play. The problem was five turnovers. As long of a season as it's been in upstate NY, the Bills still are fielding the fourth best defense in the league. This would be just the 4th time in the history of MNF that a home team is an underdog of 14 points. The three previous teams have gone a perfect 3-0 ATS. I think that defense can keep them in this one, even w/ Derek Anderson back at QB. New England seems to be humming along again after a 1-2 SU start. They've won four straight. But they've also given up a total of 71 pts the last two weeks. Now those games came against two quality foes, including Kansas City. But note that LW's game at Chicago was somewhat of a struggle. They needed TWO special teams TDs and a Hail Mary stop at the goal line on the game's final play. The road hasn't been that kind to the Patriots this season as LW was their 1st win after a pair of double digit losses. Something else to note is that they've committed at least one turnover in every game this season. Buffalo hasn't won a MNF game since 1999. They haven't won a MNF home game since '94! So, despite being seemingly outgunned and outmanned, expect a spirited atmosphere and motivated underdog. As ugly a season debut as it was last week, Derek Anderson's 175 yards passing were actually the team's most in four weeks. I think the potential loss of LeSean McCoy is somewhat overblown considering the tandem of Chris Ivory and Marcus Murphy combined to average 6.1 yards per carry last week. Since 2012, as a double digit road favorite, the Patriots are just 1-4-1 ATS w/ two outright losses. The Bills have been a DD home dog only three times in the last 30 years and have covered twice. No matter the teams, my view will almost always be that this is too many points to lay on the road. 10* Buffalo |
|||||||
10-28-18 | Colts v. Raiders +3 | Top | 42-28 | Loss | -100 | 90 h 37 m | Show |
8* Oakland (4:05 ET): Needless to say, the Raiders are officially at "rock bottom." Reports of discontent are rampant with anonymous players questioning the leadership of both HC Jon Gruden and QB Derek Carr. The team is 1-5 SU w/ its only win coming in overtime against Cleveland, a game in which they trailed by two touchdowns in the second half. Two weeks ago, they were humiliated over in London in a 27-3 loss to the Seahawks (just 185 total yds). The Khalil Mack trade was obviously highly questionable in retrospect and now Gruden has chosen to deal top receiver Amari Cooper. But the Silver and Black are off a bye, which came at an opportune time I think. As bad as things have been, I don't think Oakland should be a home dog to the Colts. Take the points. Indianapolis is off a win, a rarity, and it was easily their most impressive showing to date. Of course, it helped playing Buffalo, who was starting its third QB of the year (Derek Anderson), just signed off the street. Going inside the numbers reveals the Colts may not have been as dominant as you think. They only had a +73 edge in total yards, enough to justify a win, but certainly not indicative of the final margin of victory. The key was being +5 in turnovers, which is a margin that will almost always guarantee victory. The Colts' often leaky defense still permitted 5.5 yards per play. Of course, they entered the game ranked 30th in total defense. As bleak as things may look in Oakland right now (no Marshawn Lynch!), things can't get any worse. Indianapolis being a road favorite seems like a case of putting the "cart before the horse" as it's a role they haven't found themselves but one time since 2015. My numbers still indicate the Raiders should be favored here. One player that could still make a difference is TE Jared Cook. The Colts defense is giving up 8.4 yards per attempt to tight ends this year. This is one of those times you just have to "hold your nose" and take advantage of the public's poor perception of the Raiders right now. The numbers say we're getting a good value. 8* Oakland |
|||||||
10-28-18 | Seahawks +3 v. Lions | Top | 28-14 | Win | 100 | 122 h 7 m | Show |
10* Seattle (1:00 ET): I see the better team getting points in this one AND the Seahawks are off a bye. Sounds like a good play to me. Early on in the season, it appeared as if Seattle could be headed toward a rebuilding year as they started out w/ road losses to Denver and Chicago. But both of those were one-score games and ever since, they've won three of four w/ the only loss coming by two points to the undefeated Rams. Interestingly enough, it's been a somewhat similar story for the Lions, who also opened 0-2, including that embarrassing performance on MNF against the Jets. But they too have won three of four, not to mention covered five straight. They had the benefit of the bye last week, but this week the tables will be turned. Take the points. The last time we saw Seattle, they turned in their most impressive performance of the year, blowing out Oakland over in London by a score of 27-3. It was a total blowout from start to finish w/ the defense holding the Raiders to 185 total yards. So much for this group taking a step back in the post Legion of Boom era. In each win, they've allowed 17 pts or fewer. Now, off the bye, LB K.J. Wright is set to make a season debut. On the offensive side of the ball, so too is tight end Ed Dickson, who will be a nice target for Russell Wilson. But the real key to this game probably resides at the line of scrimmage. Whichever team runs the ball better is probably going to win. Obviously, you've figured out by now that I think that's going to be Seattle. Detroit's defense is simply not very good, against the run or the pass. They are allowing 5.7 yards per carry, which should mean a big day for the Seahawks RB group of Chris Carson, Mike Davis and Rashaad Penny. As for the passing game, the Lions were shredded three weeks ago by Aaron Rodgers. That was actually a very lucky win as the Packers outgained them 521-264, but were -3 in turnovers. When coming off back to back wins, the Lions are just 5-5 SU and 3-6-1 ATS the L3 seasons. I look for their SU - and ATS - win streaks to come to an end here. 10* Seattle |
|||||||
10-28-18 | Browns v. Steelers -8 | Top | 18-33 | Win | 100 | 122 h 7 m | Show |
10* Pittsburgh (1:00 ET): The Browns have not fared well against the Steelers returning to the league back in 1999, which honestly is par for the course for this franchise's miserable second existence. Just six times they've beaten their rival and two of those wins came in the 1999 and 2000 seasons. So that means they are 4-31-1 their L36 meetings. Note the "1" at the end of that record. These teams tied back in Week 1 and I was on Cleveland, plus the points, which wound up being a relatively easy cover all things considered. But look at the value we're getting on the rested Steelers for this rematch. Whereas they were four-point favorites in Cleveland (and that line opened much higher), now they're only laying a little more than a touchdown at home. If Cleveland couldn't beat Pittsburgh at home back in Week 1, then I'm not sure when they'll beat them. Weather was terrible and the Browns were +5 in turnover margin in that 21-21 tie. If you can't win at home w/ a +5 TO margin, there's something seriously wrong. According to a widely circulated tweet after that game, "Since the Browns returned to the NFL, teams with a turnover margin of +5 or better in a game are 132-4-1. The Browns are responsible for two of those losses and the tie." The Browns should be thankful that they were +5 in TO's in that game, however, as they were outgained 472-327. It's very unlikely that they will benefit from such a TO margin again this week. It might rain again, but it'll take more than Mother Nature to stop the Steelers this time. Browns' fans will want to point to the fact that #1 overall DC Baker Mayfield was not yet the starting QB back in Week 1 (Tyrod Taylor). Again, Mayfield's presence alone is not enough to change the result. In fact, since leading his team to a win over the Jets in Week 3, I feel that Mayfield's play has gotten progressively WORSE. Something to keep in mind here is that rookie QB's are just 4-20 SU vs. the Steelers since 2004 and the Browns have not won at Heinz Field since '03. The Steelers are coming off a bye and ready to roll. Meanwhile, the Browns defense just played a season-high 95 snaps in last week's OT loss at Tampa Bay, which was already their FOURTH OT game of the season. 10* Pittsburgh |
|||||||
10-28-18 | Ravens -1 v. Panthers | Top | 21-36 | Loss | -120 | 86 h 28 m | Show |
8* Baltimore (1:00 ET): Many might be, but I am not surprised that the Ravens come in as a slight favorite here in Carolina. My numbers agree as despite the Panthers winning 16 of their last 23 games, they still grade out as a fairly average team. Last year, they were an extremely fortunate 7-2 SU in one-score games. They were 11-5 SU overall, but only outscored opponents by a meager 36 points, which is more indicative of a 9-win team. This year, the team is 4-2, but only +11 in point differential. They have two wins by four points or less and their only game decided by more than eight points was a win over Cincinnati where they finished +4 in turnovers. The Panthers have consistently proven to be more "lucky" than "good" and that was again the case last week as they made a stunning comeback (trailed 17-0 in 4Q) to beat the Super Bowl Champion Eagles on the road. Baltimore is 4-3 SU, but has only played one bad game all year, that being a Thursday night road game in Cincinnati. Last week was a brutal 1-pt home loss to New Orleans when usually sure-footed kicker Justin Tucker missed the potential game-tying XP. They also allowed 17 fourth quarter points last week to the Saints, highly irregular for them. I've said it before, but in a league where offense rules, the Ravens have attempted to be the exception to the rule. They've allowed 14 pts or less in five of seven games, the exceptions being the Thurs night game and last week vs. the high-powered Saints. This defense is #1 in the league in both scoring and yards allowed as well as sacks. I like the Ravens' chances of bouncing back from last week's tough defeat as they are a perfect 5-0 ATS off their previous five losses. Their previous loss was in overtime at Cleveland, a game their defense only allowed 12 points. They bounced back from that w/ a 21-0 shutout over the Titans. While the running the ball may be difficult against Carolina, expect QB Joe Flacco to find plenty of success through the air as the Panthers have already allowed 13 completions of 20+ yards, third most in the league. On the flip side, Carolina's run-heavy offense figures to have a lack of success against this Ravens' defense and that will be a problem. The Panthers are actually being outgained this year on a per play basis while Baltimore is +0.6, not to mention +106.4 YPG. 8* Baltimore |
|||||||
10-22-18 | Giants v. Falcons -3.5 | Top | 20-23 | Loss | -105 | 34 h 47 m | Show |
10* Atlanta (8:15 ET): I really don't understand the "love" that the Giants are getting here. The G-Men do benefit from having not played since last Thursday. But they'll need more than that (and more points from the oddsmakers) for Eli Manning and his pop-gun arm to compete w/ the high-flying Falcons in this building. Atlanta has been a disappointment in its own right this year, but they did win big for me last Sunday, beating Tampa Bay 34-29 as three-point chalk (late FG got the cover!). They have scored 31 or more points in every home game thus far, so again, I don't see how a Giants team that has scored 30 or more only ONCE in the L3 seasons is going to be able to keep pace. Despite having been a 'dog in every game this year, the Giants are only 2-4 ATS. The Falcons are 5-2 SU and ATS when laying between 3.5 & 7 pts the L3 seasons. The Giants are 1-8 SU and 3-6 ATS as a dog in that same range during the same time frame. When considering why the Falcons (2-4 SU) have overachieved to this point, one must consider the multitude of injuries they have been hit with, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. But DT Grady Jarrett is back this week and stopping the Giants' anemic offense (19.5 PPG overall) shouldn't prove difficult. Also, two receivers - Mohammed Sanu and Calvin Ridley - have both been cleared to play tonight. With a full compliment of receivers, look for Falcons QB Matt Ryan to have a big night. The L3 weeks have seen the Giants surrender 33, 33 and 34 points. Again, assuming Atlanta is able to follow suit and hang 30+ points, I just don't see how the Giants can keep pace. Saquon Barkley was chosen #2 overall in the Draft by the Giants and there's been a lot of debate about that pick. There is no denying Barkley is going to be a great player in this league. But the problem is Eli Manning is still directing this offense, so even though it's quite loaded at RB/WR, it really doesn't matter. The Giants have topped 18 points in only two games this season. Manning, who has thrown as many INT's as he has touchdown passes the last three games, has been sacked 20 times already this season. Also, when considering Atlanta's deficiencies when it comes to pass rushing, note the Giants are one of only three teams w/ fewer sacks. Look for the Falcons to simply outscore the Giants here. 10* Atlanta |
|||||||
10-21-18 | Patriots v. Bears +3.5 | Top | 38-31 | Loss | -110 | 102 h 18 m | Show |
8* Chicago (1:00 ET): Last week proved it might be a bit premature to start printing those Bears' playoff tickets as they suffered an upset loss at the hands of a Dolphins team sans its starting QB. Sure, Chicago was lucky to even have a chance in OT after Miami's Kenyon Drake fumbled at the goal line. But they did lead the game by double digits in the fourth quarter. The news that Miami would be starting Brock Osweiler in place of the injured Ryan Tannehill came late and I wished I could have got down on the 'Fins as a home dog as the Bears were clearly being overvalued at 3-1 SU and coming off a bye. But this week, they're back in a more customary underdog role. Granted, they have to face the Patriots, but I believe they'll be up to the challenge. New England picked up a big win last Sunday night, beating Kansas City 43-40 in an absolute thriller. Once again, reports of Bill Belichick's demise turned out to be greatly exaggerated as since that 1-2 start, the Pats have won three straight while averaging almost 40 points per game. However, key is that all three games were played in Foxboro. This one comes on the road against a team that - unlike the Chiefs - can actually play defense. Remember that the Patriots are 0-2 on the road this year, losing by double digits to both Jacksonville and Detroit. Those were easily their two lowest scoring games of the year as well. Obviously, there's a big worry here for the Bears w/ Khalil Mack's ankle limiting him in practice. They'll certainly need him in order to pull any potential upset this week. But Chicago has done just fine as a home dog - even preceding Mack - going 8-2-1 ATS their L11 times in the role w/ five outright wins. I still believe in this team as one that can "win ugly" and get to the playoffs. Winning this week would be a giant step in the right direction. One positive from last week is that QB Mitchell Trubisky averaged 10.2 yards per pass attempt while the running game gained 5.3 yards per carry and that was against a pretty good Dolphins defense. At home, I believe the Bears are capable of pulling the upset. 8* Chicago |
|||||||
10-21-18 | Lions v. Dolphins +3 | Top | 32-21 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 4 m | Show |
10* Miami (1:00 ET): The Dolphins may seem to be "living dangerously," but fact is they're getting the job done. They're now 4-2 following last week's upset of the Bears. Truthfully, with the exception of that bad 38-7 loss to the Patriots, this team has played quite well this season. They didn't even need QB Ryan Tannehill to beat the Bears, though they did need overtime. But led by Brock Osweiler, they outgained Chicago 541-467 and could have put the game away earlier if not for a Kenyon Drake fumble at the goal line. They'll continue to be w/o Tannehill for the forseeable furture, but as we saw last week, Tannehill's value to the pointspread is minimal at best. That's why I'm so surprised to see the Dolphins come in as underdogs at home to the Lions this week. Detroit is off a bye. Before that, they pulled their own upset, beating Green Bay 31-23. But that game took place at Ford Field and saw the Lions get significantly outgained by the Packers, 521-264. It's very rare that a NFL team wins when getting outgained on a 2:1 basis. The Lions did it thanks to a +3 turnover margin and GB kicker Mason Crosby missing four of five field goal attempts. The Lions are now 4-0 ATS since that MNF disaster vs. the Jets to open the season, including a win over New England, but they've also yet to win a road game. They were beaten at both San Francisco (yikes) and Dallas. Miami is 3-0 SU and ATS at home this year. As a home underdog, the Dolphins are on a 7-3-1 ATS run after last week and all seven covers have seen them take the game straight up! Meanwhile, as you might expect, Detroit isn't a road favorite too often. They're just 7-13-1 ATS in the role since 2010 w/ 10 outright losses. I definitely wouldn't want to lay points w/ Matt Patricia's team on the road. The Dolphins should be able to run the ball effectively in this game given that the Lions rank 30th defensively at stopping the run and aren't much better against the pass. Miami WR Albert Wilson is a nightmare to cover, just ask the Bears, who saw him make six catches for 155 yards, two of those going for touchdowns. If the Fins can gain 500+ total yards against a very good Bears defense, then they should have their way here as well. Miami's defense remains underrated. 10* Miami |
|||||||
10-21-18 | Bills +8.5 v. Colts | Top | 5-37 | Loss | -130 | 24 h 1 m | Show |
8* Buffalo (1:00 ET): I've played the Bills before and not only "lived to tell the story," but cashed them as an outright winner over the Titans back in Week 5. So even as they are forced to turn to their third starting QB of the year already (Allen hurt, Peterman terrible), I'm not afraid to take them if I think the situation is right. Anderson won't represent any kind of significant downgrade from either Allen or Peterman, in fact, it might actually be an upgrade even though he just signed w/ the team! This play reminds me a lot of that Bills-Titans matchup in that just like Tennessee, Indianapolis has something in common w/ Buffalo: they've yet to be favored a single time in '18. The Colts are not a team I would want to lay points with, so grab the underdog in this one. Since that disastrous Week 1 showing against the Ravens (who have the league's top defense, by the way), the Bills have shown a reasonable level of competency. They've won twice, beating Minnesota and Tennessee, and last week should have finished off the Texans were it not for Peterman rearing his ugly head. The Bills led 13-10 w/ less than two minutes to go in regulation, but then gave up the game-tying field goal w/ 1:34 remaining. No problem though, there's always overtime, right? Well, not in this case. Peterman, only playing because rookie Josh Allen was hurt, threw an atrocious "pick-six" to lose the game on the very next drive. Still though, the Bills easily covered as 10-point road underdogs. I think they can do the same here, thanks to a defense that is 10th in total yards. The Bills have allowed 22 pts or fewer in four straight games. The Colts are a bad team, off to their worst start since the dreaded 2011 season that was the bridge between Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck. They've lost four in a row and already given up 34 or more points four times this season, including each of the last three weeks. So again, this is not a team I'd want to be laying points with, especially this many. While Luck has been throwing the ball a lot this year, he's been very inefficient doing so, ranking 29th in yards per attempt. He does get WR T.Y. Hilton back this week, but the return of one receiver alone cannot cure all that ails this team. This is the first time the Colts have been favored by seven points or more since 2014. Take the points. 8* Buffalo |
|||||||
10-21-18 | Titans +7 v. Chargers | Top | 19-20 | Win | 100 | 141 h 25 m | Show |
10* Tennessee (9:30 AM ET): "Wanna Get Away?" is a tagline for a popular airline company and right about now the Titans would gladly take them up on the offer. The team is off B2B "stinkers" as they lost outright to Buffalo and then were humbled by Baltimore at home. The offense has scored a grand total of 12 points in those two losses and against the Ravens, QB Marcus Mariota was sacked more times (11) than he had completed passes (10). I was highly skeptical of the Titans' 3-1 start, but now that they've lost the two games in a row, I see some value on them as they head across the pond to play the Chargers in London. They'll be going up against a much worse defense than what they've seen so far this season. Take the points in this one. The Chargers have handled their business each of the L3 weeks, going 3-0. But they've beaten three bottom-feeders (i.e. last place teams) in San Francisco, Cleveland and Oakland. In fact, it's tough to know exactly where Philip Rivers and company are really at right now as their only other win came against another terrible team (Buffalo), but their two losses came against two of the best teams, the Rams and Chiefs. They've covered the spread in three of their four wins (only failed vs. SF) and did not cover in either loss. My guess is that the pointspread comes into play Saturday morning in Wembley Stadium. The early start time isn't exactly favorable to the West Coast team as kickoff will be at 6:30 AM Pacific time. They are staying in Cleveland this week to practice. The Chargers' 38-14 win over the Browns last week was a little misleading in that they got up big early despite not possessing the ball much. They had no problem moving the ball when they had it (449 total yards), but the edge in total yards really didn't become substantial until the end of the game when they were simply running it down the Browns' throats. Consider that Tennessee is 3-3 SU despite being favored only once (at Buffalo) and they have wins over Jacksonville and Philadelphia. Their offense cannot possibly be worse than it was against Baltimore, who probably has the best defense in the league. Off B2B losses, the Titans have gone a perfect 4-0 ATS the L2 years. The Chargers have not been a good opponent for them through the years (1-9 SU, 0-9-1 ATS L10 meetings), but they'll at least cover the spread here. 10* Tennessee |
|||||||
10-18-18 | Broncos v. Cardinals +2 | Top | 45-10 | Loss | -110 | 38 h 38 m | Show |
8* Arizona (8:20 ET): It's certainly not the most marquee Thursday night battle this week as two struggling teams, Denver and Arizona, meet out in the desert. The Broncos are 2-4, but have lost four straight, while the Cardinals are 1-5 SU and last in the league in most offensive categories. Despite their offensive deficiencies, I see some value on the home team here. Home teams usually have the edge in these Thursday night games (well, not the Giants last week) and I'm not sure Denver is a team that should be laying points on the road. The Broncos' two wins this year, both at home, were by a combined four points. Their two road games have seen them lose by a combined 31 points. Take the points here. Neither team has had a friendly schedule so far. Arizona lost at Minnesota last week, 27-17, and didn't look impressive at all in doing so. They have yet to gain even 300 total yards in a game this season, which is incredible in today's NFL. Last week's 269 was actually a season-high even though they'd won the previous week at San Francisco. I thought the Cardinals' defense did a decent job pressuring Vikings QB Kirk Cousins, but there were few, if any, other positives. I will say that w/ Josh Rosen as the QB, the team is going to be better offensively than they were w/ Sam Bradford. The Cards' last two home games saw them fight down to the wire, losing to Seattle and Chicago by only a combined five points. They went 0 for 12 on 3rd/4th down last week, which isn't likely to be repeated here. Denver fought valiently against the Rams on Sunday, but ultimately went down by a score of 23-20. They had a few games go down to the wire ATS w/ results varying, so last week was the first time the Broncos definitely covered for anybody. Under Vance Joseph, the team has gone 5-15-2 ATS, the worst such record in the league during that time. The biggest problem Joseph has faced is at QB as the franchise has gotten poor play out of the position ever since Peyton Manning retired. Truthfully, Manning wasn't very good his final season, so it's been three years of bad QB play here. Case Keenum isn't looking like the answer as he's tossed at least one INT in every game. The Denver offensive line is thin coming into this game w/ guard Ronald Leary out w/ an ACL. The defense has allowed an incredible 593 yards rushing the last two weeks and gave up over 500 total yds to the Jets in their last road game. 8* Arizona |
|||||||
10-14-18 | Jaguars v. Cowboys +3 | Top | 7-40 | Win | 100 | 95 h 31 m | Show |
8* Dallas (4:25 ET): Cowboys HC Jason Garrett was the opposite of aggressive in last week's OT loss to Houston and it cost his team the game. Now truthfully, the Cowboys should have felt fortunate to even force that game into OT as they were outgained 462-292 and there were two Texans drives that reached the goal line and ended up combining for only three points. But this Dallas team can play defense as is evident by the fact they are allowing just 19.2 points (5th) and 337.4 yards (8th) per game. They are also back in Jerry World where they're 2-0 this season, beating the Giants and Lions. The task is certainly tougher this week w/ the Jaguars coming to the Metroplex, but I believe America's Team is more than capable of pulling the outright upset. Take the points. Jacksonville has been very "up and down" thus far w/ a win over New England, but also an ugly 9-6 loss to Tennessee. Last week saw them get badly outclassed in an AFC showdown w/ the Chiefs, losing 30-14. They did gain over 500 total yds of offense, but they also turned the ball over five times. Blake Bortles and company are actually off B2B 500+ yd efforts, but I wouldn't look for that streak to continue here as they are w/o RB Leonard Fournette against a quality defense. Remember that the Chiefs, as good as they are, have one of the worst defenses in the league right now. I still don't put a ton of trust in Bortles to carry his team to victory on the road. The Jags are just 3-6 SU and ATS the L3 seasons against the NFC as well and that includes a win over the sorry Giants back in Week 1. My one area of concern here is that Dallas won't be able to pass the ball at all. We knew it would be a struggle for them to effectively throw the ball coming into the year (worst WR corps in league?) and it has been as they rank 29th. Jacksonville is #1 against the pass, so look for plenty of Ezekiel Elliott in this matchup. The Jaguars have improved significantly against the run this year, but stopping Elliott will be a tough chore. The Jacksonville offense is also going to struggle to move the ball I think. They've topped 20 pts in only two of their five games to begin with and they haven't exactly faced the toughest slate of defenses. In a game that figures to feature little scoring, taking the points is the way to go. 8* Dallas |
|||||||
10-14-18 | Bucs v. Falcons -3 | Top | 29-34 | Win | 100 | 121 h 39 m | Show |
10* Atlanta (1:00 ET): The Falcons have been one of the biggest disappointments so far as they're 1-4 and off an embarrassing 41-17 loss to the Steelers. The defense has been nothing short of abysmal the L3 weeks, giving up 43, 37 and 41 points. I hate to admit it now, but I had Atlanta winning the NFC South before the start of the season. Now, they'll be lucky to even finish .500. Despite that, the team hasn't actually played as poorly as it seems. Consider this stat. Since 1940, teams scoring 36+ pts at home w/ zero turnovers are 402-4 SU. Atlanta has accounted for two of those four losses THIS SEASON! Last week's game against the Steelers didn't see them outgained significantly and it was actually a 10-pt game into the 4th quarter. I don't see the Falcons losing at home again this week, so I'll lay the points. Tampa Bay is off a bye this week, but has its own issues going on. I think that this team is still getting "residual credit" for its 2-0 start when they shockingly upset both the Saints and Eagles. Ryan Fitzpatrick led the way in those two wins, becoming the first QB in league HISTORY to throw for 400+ yards and 4 TD's in each of the first two games. But "Fitzmagic" quickly ran out of tricks and is no longer even the team's starter. The last two games saw him toss four interceptions and he was finally benched in an embarrassing 48-10 loss to Chicago two weeks ago (I was on the Bears!). There was actually some controversy heading into that game as Jameis Winston was eligible to play after being suspended the first three games. Fitzpatrick's poor play made the switch back to Winston an easy one for HC Dirk Koetter. Again, I still believe the Bucs are getting too much credit for that 2-0 start. They have given up 78 points in the last two games and I believe the Falcons are going to score a ton in this game. Tampa Bay is second worst in yards per game allowed and even w/ the bye half of the league has still allowed fewer total yards! Offense has certainly NOT been the problem for Atlanta as they are averaging nearly 400 YPG and now have RB Devonta Freeman back in the fold. Something else contributing to unfounded optimism for the Bucs is Winston making his first start of the season off the bye. Yes, it was the ideal spot to make the change, but the Bucs simply aren't going to be a demonstrably better team w/ Winston in there as opposed to Fitzpatrick. 10* Atlanta |
|||||||
10-14-18 | Panthers v. Redskins | Top | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 91 h 6 m | Show |
10* Washington (1:00 ET): The Redskins turned in an absolutely dreadful performance Monday night in New Orleans, losing 43-19. Being that the loss is still so fresh in people's minds, I expect them to be a fairly unpopular choice this week vs. Carolina. But I love the spot for them to bounce back. If they're not motivated after being humiliated on national television, then I don't know what to think. It helps being at home. The last time the 'Skins played at home, I took them and they upset Green Bay 31-17 in what is probably their most impressive performance to date. The defense was shredded by Drew Brees and company Monday night, but had given up an average of just 14.7 PPG the first three weeks. On offense, QB Alex Smith is much better than he looked on MNF. Carolina is 3-1, but I'm not convinced this is a good team. Then again, I didn't think last year's edition was nearly as good as its 11-5 SU record due to being a very fortunate 7-2 in one-score games (best win percentage in the league). The Panthers pulled another rabbit out of their collective hat last week, beating the Giants 33-31 on a Graham Gano 63-yard field goal as time expired. Carolina was outgained in the contest, 432-350, and is actually being slightly outgained for the year. Not only on a yards per game basis, but on a yards per play basis as well. The defense is giving up a frightening 6.7 yards per play to this point, which is bottom five in the league. Note that they were +4 in turnovers vs. Cincinnati the week before the bye. All three Panthers victories have come at home. Washington may be averaging 5.2 less PPG compared to Carolina, but the teams are roughly even when it comes down to yards gained. The Redskins have actually outgained the opposition this season (by about 38 YPG) and are close to the top 10 in yards per play allowed. My read is that this is one of those games where the better team isn't getting nearly enough credit and in this particular instance that team is Washington. It can sometimes be a dangerous line of thinking, but I simply don't see Carolina as a 4-1 team. I had them regressing pretty considerably here in 2018 and am not yet ready to come off that assertion. Great value here on the Redskins at home. 10* Washington |
|||||||
10-07-18 | Cowboys v. Texans -3 | Top | 16-19 | Push | 0 | 37 h 17 m | Show |
10* Houston (8:20 ET): Both Texas teams are desperate for a win Sunday night, but only one can get it. Houston is used to being in desperation mode as they opened 0-3. All three losses came by seven points or less, so it's not like they were getting blown out. Figuring the "worm was due to turn," I took the Texans last week and they grinded out an OT win over the Colts, 37-34. All that work would be for naught, however, if they reverted back to losing here. As I said last week, this team is better than its record. They came into last week ranked 8th in yards per play on offense and those number obviously got better w/ a 37-point effort. Their defense, led by JJ Watt, should have no problem containing a rather one-dimensional Dallas offense and I'll lay the points. The Cowboys are 2-2, having won twice at home and lost twice on the road. The two road games have seen them score just 21 pts total while they're averaging 23 PPG at home. It also helped to play two bad teams, the Lions and Giants, at home. Last week, they blew a 10-pt fourth quarter lead against the Lions, only to rally for a GW FG on the final play. We know the Cowboys can run the ball effectively (145 YPG) but their passing attack just might be the worst in the league. From a personnel standpoint, I can't think of a worse receiving corps. Going back to last year, there's been just one time in the last six road games that the Cowboys have topped 212 yards passing. Traditionally, this has been a shaky spot for Houston as they are 0-6 ATS the L3 seasons off a division win. But I have a hard time forgetting they were up 28-10 last week on the Colts before letting Andrew Luck make things interesting. The defense is top 10 in the league against the run, allowing fewer than 100 YPG, so they match up well w/ the Dallas offense. The Cowboys had a much more favorable matchup last week against the Lions, whose defense is much better against the pass than they are the run. Note that the Cowboys' defense has previously had trouble w/ two dual-threat type QBs this year (Cam Newton and Russell Wilson). Houston's DeShaun Watson presents similar problems and I'm projecting him to have a big game here. Look for the Texans to "show up" big in this Sunday night home game. 10* Houston |
|||||||
10-07-18 | Rams v. Seahawks +7.5 | Top | 33-31 | Win | 100 | 126 h 49 m | Show |
10* Seattle (4:25 ET): As much of a decline as the Seahawks are in, I have to say that them getting so many points at home still looks odd. Granted, it's the Rams coming to town and I don't think there's any disputing that they are the best team in football right now. LA did humiliate the Seahawks up here in Seattle last season, 42-7, but I do not see the same thing happening again this time. I realize that the 'Hawks may be at the nadir of the Pete Carroll era right now w/ the loss of Earl Thomas for the rest of the season. But this is still a prideful team that will show up to play at home. They definitely won't be lacking for motivation this week. The last time Seattle was a home dog of seven points or more was the infamous playoff win against the Saints where Marshawn Lynch made the Earth shake. The Rams are 4-0 straight up and their ATS record depends on what number you are using for last Thursday's game against Minnesota. Cover, no-cover, or push, the Rams offense was certainly outstanding in that game, totaling 38 pts and 556 total yards against a Mike Zimmer defense. The Rams have scored 33 or more points in every game so far with seven points being their closest margin of victory. I will concede that they are clearly the best team in football right now. But this spread is still too high. Laying a field goal I could understand, but not a full touchdown. I believe this number is an overreaction to the Thomas injury and the fact the Rams just played on national television. Seattle has won B2B games, by the way. Yes, the teams they beat were Dallas and Arizona. But the defense allowed just 30 pts total in those two wins. Three of the Seahawks' four games this year have been decided by a TD or less and they've only gotten to play once at home. (The 24-13 win over Dallas). Over the L3 weeks, the defense is allowing an average of just 279 YPG. Yes, they now must deal w/ losing the irreplaceable Thomas. But the loss of him alone will not cause this defense to fall off a cliff. On offense, they still have QB Russell Wilson to make plays. This is my favorite play of the week. Take the points. 10* Seattle |
Register for an Account Now for Free Picks and More Special Offers!
Bryan Power NFL Top Sides Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
10-27-19 | Bengals +14 v. Rams | Top | 10-24 | Push | 0 | 47 h 7 m | Show |
10-20-19 | Eagles +3 v. Cowboys | Top | 10-37 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
10-20-19 | Ravens +3 v. Seahawks | Top | 30-16 | Win | 100 | 42 h 9 m | Show |
10-20-19 | Vikings -1 v. Lions | Top | 42-30 | Win | 100 | 39 h 45 m | Show |
10-20-19 | Rams v. Falcons +3 | Top | 37-10 | Loss | -105 | 39 h 45 m | Show |
10-17-19 | Chiefs v. Broncos +3.5 | Top | 30-6 | Loss | -120 | 48 h 34 m | Show |
10-14-19 | Lions v. Packers -3.5 | Top | 22-23 | Loss | -101 | 23 h 28 m | Show |
10-13-19 | Steelers +7 v. Chargers | Top | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 9 h 0 m | Show |
10-13-19 | Cowboys v. Jets +8 | Top | 22-24 | Win | 100 | 44 h 5 m | Show |
10-13-19 | Titans +2.5 v. Broncos | Top | 0-16 | Loss | -117 | 44 h 4 m | Show |
10-13-19 | 49ers +3 v. Rams | Top | 20-7 | Win | 101 | 28 h 46 m | Show |
10-13-19 | Saints v. Jaguars -1 | Top | 13-6 | Loss | -120 | 41 h 40 m | Show |
10-10-19 | Giants v. Patriots -16.5 | Top | 14-35 | Win | 100 | 27 h 28 m | Show |
10-06-19 | Broncos +7 v. Chargers | Top | 20-13 | Win | 100 | 27 h 35 m | Show |
10-06-19 | Bills v. Titans -2.5 | Top | 14-7 | Loss | -116 | 26 h 48 m | Show |
10-06-19 | Jets +15.5 v. Eagles | Top | 6-31 | Loss | -120 | 26 h 47 m | Show |
10-06-19 | Bucs +3 v. Saints | Top | 24-31 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 40 m | Show |
09-30-19 | Bengals v. Steelers -3 | Top | 3-27 | Win | 100 | 33 h 60 m | Show |
09-29-19 | Cowboys v. Saints +3 | Top | 10-12 | Win | 100 | 50 h 5 m | Show |
09-29-19 | Vikings +1.5 v. Bears | Top | 6-16 | Loss | -108 | 6 h 41 m | Show |
09-29-19 | Seahawks v. Cardinals +5.5 | Top | 27-10 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 49 m | Show |
09-29-19 | Titans +3.5 v. Falcons | Top | 24-10 | Win | 100 | 15 h 45 m | Show |
09-26-19 | Eagles +4.5 v. Packers | Top | 34-27 | Win | 100 | 26 h 5 m | Show |
09-22-19 | Rams v. Browns +3.5 | Top | 20-13 | Loss | -105 | 30 h 53 m | Show |
09-22-19 | Jets +22 v. Patriots | Top | 14-30 | Win | 100 | 23 h 50 m | Show |
09-19-19 | Titans v. Jaguars +2 | Top | 7-20 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
09-16-19 | Browns v. Jets +7 | Top | 23-3 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 50 m | Show |
09-15-19 | Colts v. Titans -3 | Top | 19-17 | Loss | -115 | 116 h 14 m | Show |
09-15-19 | Bills v. Giants +1.5 | Top | 28-14 | Loss | -104 | 48 h 57 m | Show |
09-15-19 | 49ers +1.5 v. Bengals | Top | 41-17 | Win | 100 | 48 h 39 m | Show |
09-12-19 | Bucs +7.5 v. Panthers | Top | 20-14 | Win | 100 | 30 h 52 m | Show |
09-08-19 | Giants +7.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 17-35 | Loss | -110 | 78 h 55 m | Show |
09-08-19 | Bills v. Jets -3 | Top | 17-16 | Loss | -100 | 75 h 33 m | Show |
09-08-19 | Rams v. Panthers +2.5 | Top | 30-27 | Loss | -120 | 4 h 15 m | Show |
02-03-19 | Patriots v. Rams +3 | Top | 13-3 | Loss | -110 | 100 h 7 m | Show |
01-20-19 | Patriots v. Chiefs -2.5 | Top | 37-31 | Loss | -135 | 74 h 57 m | Show |
01-13-19 | Chargers +4 v. Patriots | Top | 28-41 | Loss | -103 | 117 h 32 m | Show |
01-12-19 | Colts v. Chiefs -5 | Top | 13-31 | Win | 100 | 96 h 2 m | Show |
01-06-19 | Eagles v. Bears -6 | Top | 16-15 | Loss | -110 | 57 h 25 m | Show |
01-05-19 | Seahawks +2.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 22-24 | Win | 100 | 37 h 0 m | Show |
01-05-19 | Colts v. Texans | Top | 21-7 | Loss | -125 | 73 h 32 m | Show |
12-30-18 | Colts -3 v. Titans | Top | 33-17 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
12-30-18 | Browns v. Ravens -6 | Top | 24-26 | Loss | -110 | 100 h 48 m | Show |
12-30-18 | Falcons v. Bucs | Top | 34-32 | Loss | -125 | 96 h 23 m | Show |
12-23-18 | Chiefs v. Seahawks +3 | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 50 h 2 m | Show |
12-23-18 | Jaguars +4 v. Dolphins | Top | 17-7 | Win | 100 | 43 h 44 m | Show |
12-23-18 | Giants +10.5 v. Colts | Top | 27-28 | Win | 100 | 43 h 44 m | Show |
12-23-18 | Vikings v. Lions +7 | Top | 27-9 | Loss | -140 | 43 h 42 m | Show |
12-22-18 | Redskins +12 v. Titans | Top | 16-25 | Win | 100 | 22 h 14 m | Show |
12-17-18 | Saints v. Panthers +7 | Top | 12-9 | Win | 100 | 23 h 5 m | Show |
12-16-18 | Patriots v. Steelers +2.5 | Top | 10-17 | Win | 100 | 90 h 7 m | Show |
12-16-18 | Dolphins v. Vikings -6.5 | Top | 17-41 | Win | 100 | 87 h 43 m | Show |
12-16-18 | Lions +3 v. Bills | Top | 13-14 | Win | 100 | 87 h 42 m | Show |
12-15-18 | Browns v. Broncos -3 | Top | 17-16 | Loss | -103 | 99 h 8 m | Show |
12-13-18 | Chargers v. Chiefs -3 | Top | 29-28 | Loss | -126 | 54 h 6 m | Show |
12-09-18 | Ravens +7 v. Chiefs | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 90 h 53 m | Show |
12-09-18 | Falcons +6 v. Packers | Top | 20-34 | Loss | -120 | 90 h 53 m | Show |
12-09-18 | Saints v. Bucs +9.5 | Top | 28-14 | Loss | -125 | 74 h 19 m | Show |
12-09-18 | Jets +3.5 v. Bills | Top | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 74 h 19 m | Show |
12-03-18 | Redskins +6 v. Eagles | Top | 13-28 | Loss | -105 | 34 h 37 m | Show |
12-02-18 | Chargers v. Steelers -3 | Top | 33-30 | Loss | -130 | 123 h 22 m | Show |
12-02-18 | Chiefs v. Raiders +15.5 | Top | 40-33 | Win | 100 | 119 h 0 m | Show |
12-02-18 | Rams v. Lions +11 | Top | 30-16 | Loss | -128 | 116 h 2 m | Show |
11-29-18 | Saints v. Cowboys +8 | Top | 10-13 | Win | 100 | 51 h 22 m | Show |
11-26-18 | Titans v. Texans -3.5 | Top | 17-34 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
11-25-18 | Patriots v. Jets +10 | Top | 27-13 | Loss | -105 | 38 h 49 m | Show |
11-25-18 | 49ers v. Bucs -2.5 | Top | 9-27 | Win | 100 | 38 h 48 m | Show |
11-22-18 | Falcons +13.5 v. Saints | Top | 17-31 | Loss | -115 | 53 h 35 m | Show |
11-22-18 | Redskins +7.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 23-31 | Loss | -115 | 49 h 2 m | Show |
11-19-18 | Chiefs v. Rams -3 | Top | 51-54 | Push | 0 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
11-18-18 | Vikings v. Bears -1 | Top | 20-25 | Win | 100 | 26 h 57 m | Show |
11-18-18 | Eagles +9.5 v. Saints | Top | 7-48 | Loss | -120 | 90 h 45 m | Show |
11-18-18 | Panthers v. Lions +4 | Top | 19-20 | Win | 100 | 115 h 11 m | Show |
11-18-18 | Steelers v. Jaguars +7 | Top | 20-16 | Win | 100 | 115 h 11 m | Show |
11-15-18 | Packers v. Seahawks -2.5 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 22 h 40 m | Show |
11-12-18 | Giants +3.5 v. 49ers | Top | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
11-11-18 | Chargers v. Raiders +11 | Top | 20-6 | Loss | -135 | 119 h 59 m | Show |
11-11-18 | Falcons v. Browns +7 | Top | 16-28 | Win | 100 | 29 h 47 m | Show |
11-11-18 | Lions +7.5 v. Bears | Top | 22-34 | Loss | -135 | 29 h 47 m | Show |
11-11-18 | Patriots v. Titans +7.5 | Top | 10-34 | Win | 100 | 29 h 47 m | Show |
11-04-18 | Chargers v. Seahawks +1 | Top | 25-17 | Loss | -108 | 43 h 41 m | Show |
11-04-18 | Steelers v. Ravens -2.5 | Top | 23-16 | Loss | -118 | 113 h 57 m | Show |
11-04-18 | Chiefs v. Browns +9 | Top | 37-21 | Loss | -105 | 39 h 60 m | Show |
11-01-18 | Raiders +3 v. 49ers | Top | 3-34 | Loss | -125 | 29 h 5 m | Show |
10-29-18 | Patriots v. Bills +14 | Top | 25-6 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 10 m | Show |
10-28-18 | Colts v. Raiders +3 | Top | 42-28 | Loss | -100 | 90 h 37 m | Show |
10-28-18 | Seahawks +3 v. Lions | Top | 28-14 | Win | 100 | 122 h 7 m | Show |
10-28-18 | Browns v. Steelers -8 | Top | 18-33 | Win | 100 | 122 h 7 m | Show |
10-28-18 | Ravens -1 v. Panthers | Top | 21-36 | Loss | -120 | 86 h 28 m | Show |
10-22-18 | Giants v. Falcons -3.5 | Top | 20-23 | Loss | -105 | 34 h 47 m | Show |
10-21-18 | Patriots v. Bears +3.5 | Top | 38-31 | Loss | -110 | 102 h 18 m | Show |
10-21-18 | Lions v. Dolphins +3 | Top | 32-21 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 4 m | Show |
10-21-18 | Bills +8.5 v. Colts | Top | 5-37 | Loss | -130 | 24 h 1 m | Show |
10-21-18 | Titans +7 v. Chargers | Top | 19-20 | Win | 100 | 141 h 25 m | Show |
10-18-18 | Broncos v. Cardinals +2 | Top | 45-10 | Loss | -110 | 38 h 38 m | Show |
10-14-18 | Jaguars v. Cowboys +3 | Top | 7-40 | Win | 100 | 95 h 31 m | Show |
10-14-18 | Bucs v. Falcons -3 | Top | 29-34 | Win | 100 | 121 h 39 m | Show |
10-14-18 | Panthers v. Redskins | Top | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 91 h 6 m | Show |
10-07-18 | Cowboys v. Texans -3 | Top | 16-19 | Push | 0 | 37 h 17 m | Show |
10-07-18 | Rams v. Seahawks +7.5 | Top | 33-31 | Win | 100 | 126 h 49 m | Show |