Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-07-18 | Cardinals +4 v. 49ers | Top | 28-18 | Win | 100 | 33 h 22 m | Show |
8* Arizona (4:25 ET): The Cardinals are the last winless team in the league, so we know they'll be desperate for a win this week in San Francisco. Each of the last two weeks have seen the Cards come oh so close - only to fail by a field goal or less both times. Two weeks ago at home, they led Chicago much of the way before ultimately coming up short in a 16-14 loss. It was a similar story LW vs. Seattle where they lost on a field goal as time expired, 20-17. The Seattle game marked the 1st career start for QB Josh Rosen and while the numbers seem to indicate a rather pedestrian performance (180 yds, 1 TD), he was plagued by drops from his receivers. I counted five. Had those been completions, Rosen would have been close to a 300-yd game and Arizona probably would have won. To me, there's no disputing that the Cardinals are a more dynamic offensive team w/ the rookie Rosen under center. Arizona is the winless team, but San Francisco might have more issues heading into Week 5, namely on the injury front. You probably are well aware that QB Jimmy Garoppolo has been lost for the season. Well, there are issues at all the skill positions as RB Matt Brieda is dealing with a shoulder injury and both starting WRs - Dante Pettis and Marquise Goodwin - are battling their own respective injuries. Pettis has been ruled out while Breida and Goodwin are listed as questionable. Speaking of questionable, the Niners could be w/o as many as THREE starters along the offensive line! Joe Staley, Weston Richburg and Mike McGlinchey. Those "only" the center and both starting tackles. Somehow, with CJ Beathard starting at QB last week, the team put up a game effort in a 29-27 loss to the Chargers. But I would not expect that to continue. The 49ers have lost six straight to the Cardinals, getting swept in the season series each of the last three years. Then there's this ... they are 0-11-2 ATS the L13 times they have been a home favorite. It's a streak that dates back to December of 2013. I understand Arizona deserves to be a dog in this spot, but I'd have a real hard time laying points w/ this 49ers team starting Beathard at QB w/ few weapons at his disposal and an injury-ravaged offensive line. With Rosen now in the fold, the Cardinals go into this game w/ the edge at QB and they're getting points. The Rams are the only offense to score more than 24 points on the Arizona defense. San Francisco had a defensive TD last week, so their 27 pts scored was a little misleading. I'm taking the points here. 8* Arizona |
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10-07-18 | Titans v. Bills +5.5 | Top | 12-13 | Win | 100 | 19 h 26 m | Show |
8* Buffalo (1:00 ET): Now I know what you're thinking. "Not Buffalo!" The Bills, a playoff team year ago, have fallen both hard and fast. Considering the unanimous view that they are one of the two worst teams in football (Arizona), it's almost crazy to think that this was a playoff team a year ago. Last week was another clunker as they were shutout in Green Bay, 22-0. It was the second game this year that the Bills' offense was held to three points or less AND gained less than 155 total yards. But, hey, they do have that stunning 27-6 win at Minnesota in Week 3. They also have something in common w/ this week's opponent, Tennessee. Neither team has been favored in a single game this season. Tennessee is a surprising 3-1. I say "surprising" because they haven't been favored a single time. After opening the season w/ a road loss to Miami (two long rain delays), they've won three straight by a total of nine points. Every win has been by exactly a field goal including 26-23 last week as a home dog over the Super Bowl Champion Eagles. They've also beaten Jacksonville on the road, 9-6. Note that last week's win did come in overtime and the Titans were outgained. They actually gave up a FG to start OT before answering w/ a TD. Despite their 3-1 SU record, Tennessee is being outgained on a per play basis and by about 50 YPG. The offense was held under 300 total yds by both Houston & Jacksonville. I would not trust this team as a road favorite yet, especially this many points. Playing at home, I think that the Bills defense can keep them in this one throughout. They rank in the top half of the league in yards allowed and top 10 in yards per play. Remember that Titans QB Marcus Mariota has been battling a nerve issue in his elbow. Tennessee easily could have lost last week as they were down 14 in the second half. Had they lost that game, my guess is we'd be viewing this team a whole lot differently right now. The Titans are just 11-21 ATS their past 32 road games. Having not won a single game by more than a field goal this year, I'm not about to lay almost a touchdown w/ them on the road, even against Buffalo. The number is now inflated. Take the points. 8* Buffalo |
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10-01-18 | Chiefs v. Broncos +4.5 | Top | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 36 h 57 m | Show |
10* Denver (8:15 ET): It's a new quarterback, yet the same success for Kansas City, who has raced out to a 3-0 start behind the sensational QB play of Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes is the first QB in NFL history to throw at least 13 touchdown passes in the first three games of a season. Under HC Andy Reid, the games that the Chiefs have enjoyed the most success have been those against divisional foes. They are a ridiculous 17-2 SU vs. the rest of the AFC West the last four years, including a 38-28 win over the Chargers back in Week 1! That includes five straight wins (and covers) over Monday's opponent, the Denver Broncos. But with the high-flying start, I believe KC is a little overvalued in being asked to lay this many points on the road. Take the home dog on MNF! As exciting as Mahomes and the rest of the KC offense has been, the team's defense has actually been very bad. They are giving up 30.7 points per game. That hasn't caught up w/ them yet - because the offense has been so good - but eventually, it will. That scoring average by the Chiefs defense ranks 30th in the league right now and they are also 32nd (i.e. dead last) in terms of yards allowed. The Denver offense may not be as impressive on paper, but it's a group I have projected to improve in 2018. On the road last week in Baltimore, the Broncos didn't manage much (only 14 pts). But in the first two weeks, both here at home, they scored 27 and 20 points. Case Keenum may not evoke memories of the Peyton Manning era here in Mile High, but he's far more competent than what the team had under center last season. Denver was also hurt last week when RB Phillip Lindsay was ejected for throwing a punch. It's defending the pass where Kansas City has been more susceptible so far this season, but they also gave up 178 yds rushing LW to the 49ers. Really, you have to think the Chiefs' numbers at stopping the run would be far worse if not for the fact they've gotten off to a great start offensively in all three games. It is imperative for the Broncos not to fall behind early in this game. Playing at home, in primetime, I don't think they will. Their defense has yet to allow 300 yards passing or 100 yards rushing in any game and if they keep that streak alive, then they'll at least cover here. 10* Denver |
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09-30-18 | Ravens +3 v. Steelers | Top | 26-14 | Win | 100 | 57 h 34 m | Show |
8* Baltimore (8:20 ET): Contrary to popular belief, one win will not cure all that ails the Steelers as this is a team w/ a lot of deficiencies - on both sides of the ball. I took them Monday night as it was not only a desperate spot at 0-2, but they were also facing a Bucs team w/ an overhyped QB. It's a more familiar foe in primetime this week, rival Baltimore, and the one less day to prepare does the Black & Gold no favors here. The Ravens have outgained all three opponents so far and seem to be a lot better on offense this season. They are averaging 32.3 points and 379 yards per game. Also, the Ravens have owned this rivalry - at the betting window, at least - going 5-1-1 ATS the past seven meetings. Five of the last six have been one score games. This has me on the dog Sunday night. The Ravens are allowing a league-low 273 YPG through three weeks. Thus, they have outgained those same foes by over 100 YPG. They have a point differential of +46, which is the best in the AFC. Now that's all still skewed because they got to play the Bills in Week 1, but aside from digging an early hole too deep to climb out of in Week 2 vs. Cincinnati (Thurs night road game), Baltimore has looked very good this season. Certainly, their league-leading defense will be tested by a Pittsburgh offense that ranks third in yards per game. But it's a Steelers' offense that is still w/o RB LeVeon Bell. Two weeks ago, the Steelers scored 37 points, had 475 total yards, didn't turn the ball over once and still lost - at home. They are not going to be able to put up those kind of offensive numbers this week. The short week hasn't really bothered Mike Tomlin's team in the past as they're 3-0 SU the L3 seasons after playing on MNF. But they're also just 1-2 ATS. The Steelers were very lucky Monday night in Tampa as the Bucs turned the ball over four times. They picked off QB Ryan Fitzpatrick three times in the 1st half, returning one of them for a defensive score. The offense was actually shutout in the 2nd half and nearly blew a 20-pt halftime lead. Meanwhile, Baltimore looked good LW vs. Denver, executing well on both sides of the ball. The defense shut the Broncos out completely in the final three quarters and QB Joe Flacco completed 25 of 40 pass attempts. At the end of the day, I'm just not that high on this Steelers team this year. 8* Baltimore |
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09-30-18 | Texans +2 v. Colts | Top | 37-34 | Win | 100 | 94 h 33 m | Show |
10* Houston (1:00 ET): The Texans are winless - both straight up and against the number - at 0-3 and desperate for a win this week at Indianapolis. Needless to say, this is about as "must-win" as it gets. Going back to last season, the team has now lost nine straight in the regular season and 12 of its last 13. HC Bill O'Brien no longer has the "excuse" of not having a healthy DeShaun Watson at QB. Another loss this week, to the division rival Colts, and O'Brien's "seat" will be most definitely be the hottest in the league. So needless to say, Houston won't be lacking for motivation in Week 4, nevermind the fact they have double revenge from LY against Indianapolis. I think the Texans are better than what they've shown so far and I'll take them in this spot. Take the points. Indianapolis is 1-2 SU and coming off a loss to the Eagles. Despite covering each of the last two games, they've been outgained both times. In a 21-9 win over Washington in Week 2, they had the three scoring drives, all of which were 75 yds or longer. But on all other drives in the game, they gained just 56 total yards. Talk about opportunistic. Last week's game in Philly was not as close as the final score of 20-16 indicates as the Colts were outgained 379-209 and were lucky that Eagles QB Carson Wentz turned it over twice inside his own 17-yard line. Even w/ the excellent field position, the Colts' offense couldn't do much, settling only for a pair of field goals. But those two kicks were the difference between covering and not covering. The Colts offense had only 14 first downs in the game and possessed the ball for less than 20 minutes. QB Andrew Luck is averaging a career-low 5.3 yards per pass attempt so far. Meanwhile, the Houston offense has performed better than you might think, averaging 6.1 yards per play, which ranks 8th in the league. All three losses have been by 7 pts or less. They outgained both the Titans (437-283) and Giants (427-329), yet didn't even cover either time. While the Colts did beat the Texans both times LY, note they were fortunate to avoid Watson both times. Watson has established a strong rapport w/ WRs Will Fuller and DeAndre Hopkins. They should put plenty of points on the board against a bad Colts defense. 10* Houston |
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09-30-18 | Bucs v. Bears -3 | Top | 10-48 | Win | 100 | 49 h 9 m | Show |
8* Chicago (1:00 ET): The Bears aren't the most impressive 2-1 league, but given how the John Fox era went, they'll take this start under 1st year HC Matt Nagy. It may surprise some to find the Monsters of the Midway favored for a third straight week here. After suffering the heartbreaking loss to Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay in Week 1 (still covered), I took them again in Week 2 in a Monday night win over Seattle. Last week, I said they had no business being a road favorite, even against Arizona. They may have come back to win that game, 16-14, but never were "in the money" except for a brief moment at the end (when a pick-six was overturned). This week, they're back in the Windy City, laying a small number and I like the spot a lot. Lay the points! Tampa Bay is off a loss, on a short week and playing on the road. They also have a QB decision looming. Jameis Winston isn't suspended anymore, meaning the pressure is back on Ryan Fitzpatrick. Through two weeks of the season, this looked like an easy decision for Bucs HC Dirk Koetter. Fitzpatrick was playing at a "MVP level" (two 400+ yard games w/ 4 TD passes!) and the team was 2-0 SU. But, predictably, Fitzpatrick came back down to Earth Monday against the Steelers. Yes, it was a 4th straight 400+ yd game, but he threw three costly interceptions in the 1st half and the Bucs lost 30-27 at home. They were down 30-10 at half and 30-13 entering the 4th quarter. Now Koetter is "mum" on who will start this game and I think it's going to turn into a mess. I'd be more concerned about the Bucs' game of secrecy if not for the fact the Bears have an outstanding defense. Admittedly, they have faced weak offenses each of the L2 weeks. But they rank 5th in total defense and 8th in scoring, giving them a huge edge over the Bucs' weak stop unit, which ranks 31st and 29th respectively. Chicago's pass rush should be a major factor in this game. On offense, QB Mitchell Trubisky remains a "work in progress," but this will be the weakest defense he's faced all year. Though it hasn't been pretty, the Bears probably should be 3-0 and remember I am higher on this team than most. They're not getting enough respect here at home. 8* Chicago |
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09-27-18 | Vikings +7.5 v. Rams | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 29 h 53 m | Show |
8* Minnesota (8:20 ET): The Vikings were on the wrong end an absolute shocker last week, losing as 17-pt home favorites to Buffalo. It wasn't just that they lost to the previously winless Bills though. It was how they lost. Shutout for nearly four quarters, they lost 27-6 to a team that was perceived as easily the worst in the league. Needless to say, when this NFL season is over, there won't be a more head-scratching result. The good news though is the Vikings can quickly atone. The bad news is they'll have to travel out to LA to face the team many consider the best in the league right now, the Rams. But w/ many of the same faces, the Vikings beat the Rams LY 24-7, completely shutting down Jared Goff and company. This time, they'll have to do it on the road, but they're also getting alot of points from the oddsmakers. I'm on the dog, looking to bounce back from an embarrassing defeat. The thing about last week was that the Vikings were dead even in total yards w/ the Bills at 292 each. The issue was being -3 in turnovers. Three of the Bills scoring drives were 25 yards or less and that was essentially the difference in the game. A convincing Week 1 victory over the 49ers now seems like a distant memory as the Vikings have since tied and lost. That tie (against the Packers) should have been a win as they missed TWO field goals in overtime and outgained Green Bay 480-351 in total yards and by 2.1 yds on a per play basis. This team (the Vikings) is better than its record shows. Meanwhile, the Rams are 3-0 and considered by many to be the best team in the league. They have a +66 point differential that is easily the league's best. But look at who they've played: three teams that are a combined 1-8 SU. They did trail Oakland at the half in Week 1. Arizona is really bad. The Chargers are dealing with a lot of injuries and not at full strength. Speaking of not at full strength, this short week really works against the Rams here as they are going to be w/o numerous players. Two of them are from the high-priced secondary w/ Aqib Talib now out (at least) 8 weeks due to ankle surgery and Marcus Peters (calf) listed as questionable. Even kicker Greg Zuerlein has been ruled out, so field goal kicking could be problematic. Two linebackers and their return man also may not play. Vikings HC Zimmer has been outstanding as a dog and could steal one here. 8* Minnesota |
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09-24-18 | Steelers +1 v. Bucs | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
8* Pittsburgh (8:15 ET): Of the four NFL teams that remain winless, the Steelers are certainly the biggest surprise to be counted among them. Now there is a caveat in that they tied the Browns, but the fact is that the Steelers were favored in both games. They had to overcome a -5 turnover margin just to tie the Browns in Week 1, but the truth is they largely outplayed Cleveland in that contest, outgaining them by 145 total yards. Last week saw them roll up 37 points, 475 total yds and not turn the ball over once - at home - and they still lost to the Chiefs. While they haven't been able to "put it all together" quite yet, because of that I feel tonight is the ultimate "buy low" scenario on Pittsburgh. I'll play against the line move and take them here in a virtual "must-win" spot. Tampa Bay is 2-0 and it's safe to say no one expected that considering they opened w/ the Saints and the Eagles. This game makes it three straight opponents that won their division last year and the Bucs have had to do it w/o their starting QB Jameis Winston. Then again, maybe that's why they are 2-0. Ryan Fitzpatrick has been one of the biggest stories in the league thus far, becoming the first QB in league HISTORY to open a season w/ B2B 400+ yard, 4 TD passing days. Considering what the Steelers just gave up to Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City, this would seem like an ideal matchup for Fitzpatrick and the Bucs. However, are we really sure Fitzpatrick and TB are going to be able to sustain this kind of production? Remember, I took them in Week 1 at New Orleans. But I have been stunned how good this offense has looked so far. It's rare to see the Steelers falling out of favor w/ the public. That probably has a lot to do w/ the fact that WR Antonio Brown has been so vocal with his criticism of the team. I suspect Brown is going to have a big game here as you have to remember that the TB defense gave up 40 points itself in Week 1 and has allowed 400+ yards in both games so far. To me, I don't think we've seen a true representation of either team here in 2018. The Steelers are better than they've played and the Bucs are due to "come back down to Earth." Over the last four years, there's been only one time the Steelers went winless for a stretch of at least three games. 8* Pittsburgh |
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09-23-18 | Bears v. Cardinals +7 | Top | 16-14 | Win | 100 | 101 h 4 m | Show |
8* Arizona (4:05 ET): The Steve Wilks era in Arizona has gotten off to a pretty disastrous start as the team has been outscored 58-6 w/ the lone scoring coming in garbage time in Week 1. As bad as that sounds, I see some real value on the Cardinals this week. They are catching Chicago on a short week, off an emotional home victory over Seattle (1st of Matt Nagy era). The Bears probably should be 2-0 as they had Green Bay "dead to rights" in the opener before falling victim to Aaron Rodgers (still covered though). While I'm 2-0 ATS taking the Bears this season, this is a rare instance of them being a road favorite and I'm not about to start trusting them in that role just yet. Take the points. It's going to be real difficult to sugarcoat Arizona's performances through the first two games. They have both been bad. Last week in particular as they gained just 137 total yards and did not run a play on the Rams' side of the field until the final play of the GAME. It's been almost 12 years since a team failed to cross midfield in a NFL game, so it was a historically bad effort. I suppose the Cardinals could do what the Browns did Thursday night and throw their own rookie QB (Josh Rosen) out there. I wouldn't disagree w/ such a move and if it came late in the game (meaning Cards are behind), the backdoor could at least be open w/ a Rosen spark. But also remember that Cleveland only changed QB's due to injury. Bottom line is I expect a far better effort out of Arizona at home this week. I think that it's also important that we not overrate Chicago. I say this as someone who considers them a darkhorse playoff candidate in the NFC. But looking at them right now, I don't see them as being ready to blow teams out on the road, even one as lowly as Arizona. It's pretty clear that the Chicago offense, specifically QB Mitchell Trubisky, has issues. First year HC Matt Nagy is doing a great job of scripting the offense's plays early, but after the 1st quarter, production goes in the tank. Over the final three quarters of the first two games, the Bears are averaging just about 3.5 yards per play. So Arizona is going to be able to hang around here in what should be a pretty low-scoring game. Going back to the 2014 season, the Bears have been road favorites just once (Wk 10 of '16 at Tampa Bay) and they lost that game outright, 36-10. 8* Arizona |
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09-23-18 | Raiders +3.5 v. Dolphins | Top | 20-28 | Loss | -115 | 98 h 39 m | Show |
8* Oakland (1:00 ET): Jon Gruden's return to the Raiders is not going as planned as two poor second half showings have the team at 0-2. Last week's loss to Denver seems somewhat improbable when you consider QB Derek Carr completed 90% of his pass attempts, becoming the first player in NFL HISTORY to do so in a game where he had at least 27 attempts! Carr wasn't just "dinking and dunking" either as he threw for 288 yards. But it marked the second straight game where the Silver & Black failed to hold a halftime lead. A blocked XP ended up "biting them in the rear" as they lost the game 20-19 w/ the Broncos kicking a last second field goal. While many Raiders fans are disappointed w/ the team being 0-2, you have to remember they were underdogs in both games. They're underdogs again this week, but given the desperate circumstances, I'm not sure they should be. Far more surprising than Oakland being 0-2 is Miami being 2-0. The Dolphins have played well in both games as well, though it should be noted they faced the Titans and the Jets. Put a bit of an asterisk next to that Week 1 win at Tennessee as play was suspended multiple times due to weather and Tennessee lost QB Marcus Mariota early. Last week, they were actually outgained 362-257 by the Jets, only to feast on three turnovers. Two of Miami's three touchdown drives started on the Jets' side of the field, one of them at the 15-yard line. I'm still not sold on QB Ryan Tannehill as anything special and this just has the feel of a "trap game" for the Fish. Last year, Oakland came to Miami and won 27-24 as three-point favorites. I'm not sure enough has changed in a year's time to justify such a price swing. Say what you will about the Raiders, but they've gone 11-5 ATS the L3 seasons in games where the line is three points or less, including 4-2 as a road underdog. Gruden is doing good things w/ this offense as it currently ranks 6th in the league at 6.2 yards per play. Was it stupid to trade Khalil Mack, right before the season? Absolutely. Especially considering the lack of pass rush. Fortunately, Tannehill has been knocked around a lot the first two games. I just don't like Miami as a favorite in this spot. Will they be better than last year? Probably. But it's hard to see this team starting 3-0. Or the Raiders starting 0-3, for that matter. 8* Oakland |
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09-23-18 | Packers v. Redskins +3.5 | Top | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 98 h 39 m | Show |
10* Washington (1:00 ET): Facing Indianapolis and winning the battle of turnovers and total yards, the Redskins still found a way to lose by DOUBLE DIGITS last week at home. It was a disappointing effort all-around as their offense had to settle for three field goals while the Colts scored three touchdowns. Interesting though is that outside of Indy's three TD drives (all of which went for exactly 75 yards), they gained just 56 yards the rest of the game. Talk about opportunistic football. Speaking of opportunistic, the Packers should thank their lucky stars that they were able to escape w/ a tie LW vs. Minnesota. Yes, there was the bogus roughing the passer penalty on Clay Matthews. But Green Bay was outgained 480-351 in total yardage, including a stunning 2.1 yards per play! The Vikings also missed two kicks in overtime, not to mention had a blocked punt returned for a touchdown. So Washington is now back in a more customary role of underdog this week and I like them at home. It's tough to put a ton of stock into the Week 1 victory at Arizona now that we have a better understanding just how bad the Cardinals are. A huge difference between Weeks 1 and 2 was how the Redskins ran the ball. Against Arizona, they ran the ball 42 times for 182 yards. Against Indianapolis, they ran it only 22 times (got down early) for just 65 yards. We should see a performance that lies "somewhere in between" this week. I also expect better performance on both third downs and in the red zone, on both sides of the ball, this week. Those two areas really cost them against the Colts. Remember that Green Bay should probably be 0-2 right now. They trailed Chicago 20-0 at home before Aaron Rodgers turned in an amazing come from behind effort to steal one. Rodgers is clearly still hurting and this is going to be a lingering issue the rest of the season. He isn't practicing much because of the knee and there is some (legit) concern that it will worsen if he continues playing on it. Another legit concern w/ this offense is the non-existent running game. Through two games, the Pack have just 167 yds rushing, which is near the bottom of the league. This team is only 1-3 ATS as a road favorite of a field goal or less the last three seasons w/ three outright losses. If the Redskins can generate pressure on Rodgers Sunday, then this should be a relatively easy upset. 10* Washington |
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09-20-18 | Jets v. Browns -3 | Top | 17-21 | Win | 100 | 47 h 11 m | Show |
10* Cleveland (8:20 ET): Some are reporting this as the 1st time the Browns have been favored in the Hue Jackson era. For the record, my notes show they actually closed as a one-point favorite against Indianapolis (on the road!) Week 3 of last season. (They obviously lost). Nevertheless, this is a rather monumental occurrence in Cleveland. It's also a must win. I probably don't need to tell you that it's 19 consecutive regular season losses and counting w/ Jackson's overall record as Browns' HC now 1-33 SU. But despite all the calls for rookie QB Baker Mayfield to start and the general incompetence that comes along w/ this team, they SHOULD be 2-0 this year. Thursday night, they get a home game against the Jets. There's a good chance Jackson is coaching for his job here. Week 1 saw the Browns infamously tie the Steelers, 21-21. They missed a field goal at the end of overtime and won the turnover battle by five. You may have heard this already, but since the Browns returned to the league (1999), teams that win the TO battle by 5+ are 132-4-1 SU. This being the Browns, they have accounted for two of the four losses and obviously the tie. As unbelievable as that result was, the Browns also SHOULD have won in New Orleans in Week 2. They outgained the Saints 327-275 and led 12-3 going into the fourth quarter. After giving up two touchdowns to fall behind 18-12 (Saints made a 2-pt conversion), the Browns answered w/ a TD of their own (w/ just 1:16 remaining) and appeared poised to snap the win streak. Problem is kicker Zane Gonzales missed his SECOND XP of the game! The Saints then marched down for the GW FG. Only Cleveland actually had a chance to tie, but Gonzalez missed again (Note: he's since been waived). Clearly, there's nothing wrong w/ this Browns defense, which has held the Steelers and Saints to just 21 points apiece. The offense does lack playmakers, particularly in the wake of the Josh Gordon trade. But I believe they have enough to outscore the Jets. New York was the "toast of the town" after Week 1 when they went to Detroit and won 48-17 as seven-point dogs. Of course, the final difference was the direct result of a 31-point third quarter where the Flyboys scored two non-offensive touchdowns. Sam Darnold, the Jets' own rookie QB, has three interceptions now in two games. His first pass attempt of the regular season was infamously returned for a TD by Detroit, then he threw two more in last week's 20-12 home loss to Miami. The offense was shutout in the 1st half and I have no idea why Darnold was asked to throw 41 times. If the Browns don't win this game, they should probably just fold the team. 10* Cleveland |
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09-17-18 | Seahawks v. Bears -3.5 | Top | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 34 h 34 m | Show |
10* Chicago (8:15 ET): Though the results were the same for both of these teams in Week 1 (close loss), I view the respective franchises as trending in very different directions in 2018. The Bears lost a heartbreaker last Sunday, blowing a 20-0 lead against rival Green Bay. You may have heard that Packers QB Aaron Rodgers is a big-time difference maker in this league. Rodgers got injured in the 1st half and that's when the Bears did almost all of their damage, including the newly acquired Khalil Mack returning a DeShone Kizer INT for a touchdown. But then Rodgers came back and the rest is history. Still, I came away impressed w/ the Bears' overall performance in what was a wire to wire cover. I took them plus the points in Week 1 and will lay the points w/ them in Week 2. Seattle lost its opener, also on the road, by a field goal at Denver. Don't let that close result fool you, however. The Seahawks are on the decline w/ most of the core players from the team's "glory years" having moved on. It's very much now Russell Wilson's team, but he's surrounded w/ a weak supporting cast and his offensive line is among the very worst in the league. Last week, Denver's Von Miller sacked Wilson three times himself and forced two fumbles. Now imagine what Mack and company will do here. I'm scratching my head as to how the Seahawks were able to keep things close last week, considering they were outgained 470-305 and had 12 fewer first downs (25-13). On Saturday, three Seahawks were ruled out for this game: WR Doug Baldwin, LB Bobby Wagner and LB K.J. Wright. Things have gotten so dire that the team has decided to sign Mychal Kendricks, a linebacker who was just released by the Browns in disgrace due to being charged w/ insider trading. As many as six Seattle starters could miss this game as three others (in addition to the three listed above) are questionable. This is no longer a good team, folks. I wasn't totally impressed w/ 1st year HC Matt Nagy's decision making in the second half last week. But the Bears' new coach is still an upgrade over "behind the times" John Fox, who went 1-5 SU and ATS as a favorite in his time in the Windy City. Most of my key indicators are pointing up for the Bears this season and I think they're a lock to improve on last year's 5-win total. They can't afford a second straight primetime loss. Look for Nagy to pick up his first win as a HC here. 10* Chicago |
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09-16-18 | Colts v. Redskins -5.5 | Top | 21-9 | Loss | -110 | 115 h 45 m | Show |
8* Washington (1:00 ET): In retrospect, the Redskins finishing just 7-9 SU last year shouldn't have been that surprising. Not only was the team hit hard by injuries, they were favored six times. Five of those six times came in the final six weeks. So they were favored just once in the first 10 games. They won't have to wait nearly as long to find themselves in the chalk role this season, however, thanks to the fact they are coming off a very impressive 24-6 win at Arizona in the season opener. Meanwhile, even though Andrew Luck is back, Indianapolis showed they still have a lot of work to do after losing their season opener at home to the Bengals. The Colts' defense gave up a frightening 6.6 yards per play in Week 1 and a Washington offense that averaged over 6.0 YPP itself in Week 1 should take full advantage this week. I'm laying the points. Obviously, because of the respective Week 1 performances this line has been adjusted. The lookahead line had the Redskins favored by three, but it wasn't high enough then and it's not high enough now. When favored last year, the 'Skins went 4-2 SU and 3-3 ATS. But they won all four times they were favored here in D.C., the lone non-cover coming when they were asked to lay double digits. The big difference between this year and last is the QB situation. Kirk Cousins has been replaced by Alex Smith and that will almost certainly lead to fewer turnovers. At RB, Adrian Peterson stunned me w/ a 96-yard Wk 1 performance, but don't discount Chris Thompson as he had 128 total yards from scrimmage. The defense allowed just 213 yards and while the Cardinals' offense isn't exactly good, neither is the Colts'. It seems to me that a lot of folks might be sleeping on this Washington team right now. Andrew Luck might be back, but the rest of the Colts roster looks to be in pretty poor shape. A case can be made that they have the worst secondary in the league and the linebacking group is weak on the interior. Luck also doesn't have a lot of help at the skill positions, especially running back. That's why he had to throw 53 times last week. It was an all-too familiar story for Colts' fans in Week 1 as they blew a double digit lead and were outscored 17-0 in the fourth quarter. That was a recurring theme last year and I'll look for the Redskins to wear them down over the course of the game and earn a relatively easy win and cover. 8* Washington |
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09-16-18 | Chiefs v. Steelers -5 | Top | 42-37 | Loss | -105 | 115 h 35 m | Show |
10* Pittsburgh (1:00 ET): I get the feeling that most bettors are going to be on the underdog here. The Chiefs couldn't have asked for a better start to the Patrick Mahomes era as they went out to LA and whipped the Chargers, 38-28. Meanwhile, the error-prone Steelers (six turnovers) had to settle for a 21-21 tie w/ the lowly Browns. But this game is at Heinz Field where Pittsburgh has performed quite well through the years against everyone in the league not named "New England." Over the past four seasons, the Black & Gold have gone 12-5 SU at home vs. opponents w/ a .500 or better record. That's the second best mark in the league. They've had Kansas City's number in particular, winning all three matchups over the past two seasons. It'll be more of the same in Week 2. Lay the points. Tying the Browns might seem like an embarrassing way to start the season, but Pittsburgh should be happy to take it and move on. They turned the ball over SIX times and as you've probably seen by now, teams that lose the TO battle by five or more have gone 4-132-1 since 1999. Despite a torrential downpour and no LeVeon Bell, the Steelers still moved the ball last week to the tune of 472 total yards. They outgained Cleveland 472-327. I see the Steelers having no issues moving the ball again this week against a Chiefs' defense that is worse than the Browns and suspect at best. KC allowed the Chargers to gain over 500 total yards last week (541 to be exact) and I think there are going to be a lot of long Sunday afternoons for this stop unit. Week 2 should be one of them. The Steelers were the second highest scoring home team in the league last season, at 29.8 PPG, trailing only New Orleans. The last two seasons have seen the Chiefs lose to the Steelers three times. In all three games, their offense was held to 16 pts or fewer. Now, that was w/ Alex Smith at QB. Mahomes certainly appears to have a "higher upside" than Smith, particularly w/ the all the weapons surrounding him. But don't discount the likelihood that the Chiefs' lofty turnover margin of the previous three seasons (+45!) will take a significant hit w/ Mahomes at QB. They didn't turn the ball over at all last week, but the Chargers were busy displaying their usual brand of incompetence. One the Chiefs' TD drives started on the two-yard line and they got another score from special teams. Meanwhile, I can't look past the fact that their defense surrendered so many yards as well as 33 first downs. Love the Steelers in this spot. 10* Pittsburgh |
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09-13-18 | Ravens -1 v. Bengals | Top | 23-34 | Loss | -102 | 32 h 45 m | Show |
10* Baltimore (8:20 ET): This is obviously a huge revenge game for the Ravens, whose playoff hopes were dashed last year by the Bengals in wild, Week 17 result that saw Cincy score a last second TD. It was a most improbable result w/ Andy Dalton tossing a 49-yard TD pass to Tyler Boyd on a 4th & 12, in Baltimore no less. Prior to the deciding play, the Ravens were projected as having a 93.4% chance of winning and thus making the playoffs. Basing a pick solely on revenge can sometimes be a mistake, but there's no denying tha Baltimore is again the better team entering 2018. They beat the Bengals here in Cincinnati last year, 20-0 (as three-point dogs), and should have swept the season series. The fact that both teams are off convincing Week 1 victories aids us in getting a good number here and I'll make a rare call to take a road favorite. Baltimore was a popular pick in Week 1 as they were hosting Buffalo. Things went even easier than anticipated as they rolled to a 47-3 win and cover. Their vaunted defense allowed just 153 total yds in the contest. Granted, they were facing perhaps the worst team in the league and certainly the worst starting QB in Nathan Peterman. But let's not lose sight of the fact they don't have to win that big every week. Certainly not here where all that's required is simply winning. I was shocked to find that they've dropped seven of the nine meetings vs. Cincinnati, so the revenge angle here extends beyond one game. The Ravens have gone 9-3 ATS vs. the AFC North the L2 seasons, so the struggles against Cincy are highly irregular. I'll definitely take John Harbaugh and his staff over Marvin Lewis. The Ravens have won and covered both of their Thursday games the L2 years. The Bengals were 34-23 winners over Indianapolis in Week 1. They rallied from a 23-10 second half deficit to score the game's final 24 points. Note that they had an 83-yard fumble return for a late touchdown. At the time, the Colts were (obviously) driving and it was only a 27-23 game. So things certainly could have ended a lot differently there. The defense that the Bengals will be up against this week will be far superior. Going from facing one of the league's worst defenses to one of its best will be a challenge I don't think they're up for. Coming into the year, I had the Ravens rated significantly higher than the Bengals and you can bet this is a game Harbaugh had circled on his calendar. 10* Baltimore |
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09-10-18 | Rams v. Raiders +5 | Top | 33-13 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 58 m | Show |
8* Oakland (10:15 ET): The mood in Oakland is an ornery one as Khalil Mack was traded to Chicago just before the start of the regular season. So much for the enthusiasm surrounding Jon Gruden's return to the sidelines. Perhaps what the Mack trade signified was an acknowledgement that the Raiders are "a year away." Last year saw the Silver & Black drop down to six wins after going 12-4 SU in 2016. The reality is that team from two years ago was pretty fluky. The Super Bowl hype the Raiders entered last year was pretty ridiculous in retrospect and not something I bought into one iota. That all being said, I do expect Gruden's return to result in an increase in wins this year. The Raiders are underdogs at home in Week 1 and I think a great value against the NFL's new "shiny object." The Rams came out of nowhere last year. This franchise had done next to nothing under Jeff Fisher, but Sean McVay quickly put his imprint on the team and the impact was immediate. QB Jared Goff and the rest of the offense transformed into one of the league's top units almost overnight. But I look for the Rams to score fewer points per game in 2018. There's more tape available on McVay's offense and defenses will adjust. Speaking of defense, the Rams' stop unit projects to be one of the best in the league this season. They were actually middle of the road LY, but upgraded significantly in the secondary (Marcus Peters, Aqib Talib) and most importantly resigned DT Aaron Donald, arguably the best at his position in the league. In the wake of the Mack trade, the Raiders have fallen out of favor w/ the public and thus are now a far better value than they would have been. Mack looked incredible Sunday night for his new team, but one defensive player should not have that big of an impact on the pointspread. We're now at a point where the spread is too high. As mentioned above, I expect the Rams' offense to regress a bit this year. Meanwhile, the Raiders' offense almost HAS to improve after averaging just 18.8 PPG a year ago. Oakland was a home dog three times last year, going 1-1-1 ATS. But they lost only one of those games by more than a field goal and that was against the Patriots. While the Rams' defense projects to be good, I have questions about the pass rush. Oakland QB Derek Carr makes enough plays here to get the cash. Take the points. 8* Oakland |
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09-09-18 | Bears +9 v. Packers | Top | 23-24 | Win | 100 | 125 h 20 m | Show |
8* Chicago (8:20 ET): The Bears were a team I'd already 'earmarked' for improvement and then they went out and traded for Khalil Mack, one of the top defensive players in the league. One of the smartest moves in the short tenure of 1st year HC Matt Nagy was to retain DC Vic Fangio. There weren't many positives from the John Fox era in Chicago, but Fangio's defenses were generally among them. On the offensive side of the ball, the hope is that Nagy can do for QB Mitchell Trubisky what Sean McVay did last year for Jared Goff. That might be an unrealistic expectation, but the Bears will be better in 2018 and I think it starts w/ a competitive showing against the rival Packers. Take the points. With Aaron Rodgers back in the fold, the expectation is for the Packers to win a lot more games this year. Rodgers broke his collarbone in Week 6 last year and that was basically it for the rest of the team. They lost 8 of their final 11 games to finish below .500 for the 1st time since Rodgers' 1st year as a starter. Rodgers' return by itself makes the Pack a strong bet to return to the playoffs this year. But his supporting cast isn't what it used to be. Also keep in mind that this team has not won more than 10 games since 2014. Rodgers' favorite wideout, Jordy Nelson, is gone. Although Nelson was aging and may not be as missed as anticipated. Even w/o Rodgers, the Pack still swept the Bears last season. But as I'm about to discuss, this is a much improved Chicago team in 2018. The offense surrounding the second year QB Trubisky is a lot better this year. I really like the Bears' backfield tandem of Howard and Cohen. Receiver had been a problem for years, but was addressed in the offseason w/ Allan Robinson, Taylor Gabriel and tight end Trey Burton all coming in. The defense was already good before Mack's arrival and will be even better than it was last year. I think it would be foolish to expect Mack to dominate in this game, but he is more than capable of making an impact. The Bears have just TWO road wins the last two seasons, but there's a real "positive vibe" surrounding this team entering 2018 and I think they're capable of pulling an upset here. 8* Chicago |
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09-09-18 | Chiefs v. Chargers -3 | Top | 38-28 | Loss | -125 | 121 h 6 m | Show |
10* LA Chargers (4:05 ET): The AFC West is wide open this year. It's a division that's largely been dominated by Kansas City since Andy Reid's arrival, the last two years in particular. Over the last two seasons, the Chiefs are 11-1 SU and 10-2 ATS vs. the rest of the division. But they have zero playoff wins to show for it. In fact, the Chiefs still have just ONE playoff win since Joe Montana retired a quarter century ago. That was three years ago against a Houston team that was quarterbacked by Brian Hoyer and Brandon Weeden. No longer content with going 12-4 and being "one and done" in the playoffs, the Chiefs have made a major move at QB this season, jettisoning Alex Smith in favor of last year's #1 draft choice Patrick Mahomes. With the AFC West more wide open this year, the Chargers seem to have stepped into the favorite role. This was a very good team last year. They actually had a better point differential than Kansas City. But the same old issues plagued the Lightning Bolts, namely an inability to win close games. They dug themselves a huge hole last year, starting the Anthony Lynn era 0-4 w/ three of the losses coming by three points or fewer. From that point on, they went 9-3 SU (w/ one of the losses in OT), but it was "too little, too late." There's no doubt in my mind that this was one of the six best teams in the AFC last year (certainly better than Buffalo), they just didn't get a chance to show it. While there were two significant injuries sustained during camp - TE Hunter Henry and DB Justin Verrett - I believe this team has the tools to win the AFC West this year. The change at QB for the Chiefs is an interesting one. Mahomes clearly has a bigger upside than Smith. But something to watch will be turnovers. The Chiefs had an outrageous +45 TO margin the L3 seasons, thanks in large part to Smith's ability to take care of the football. Mahomes will not be as cautious as Smith was and I believe that's going to affect the team in the TO department. Meanwhile, Philip Rivers will be entering his 15th season as the Chargers QB and I believe this could be his best offense to work with since the days of LaDanian Tomlinson. He has RB Melvin Gordon, WR Keenan Allen and TE Antonio Gates is back to replace the injured Henry. Last year, the Chargers offense was 4th in total yards, but only 13th in scoring. The Chiefs defense isn't what it used to be and I see LA outscoring them in this one. 10* LA Chargers |
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09-09-18 | Steelers v. Browns +6 | Top | 21-21 | Win | 100 | 118 h 1 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (1:00 ET): For a team that went 0-16 SU last year and has just 1 win in its last 32 games, the Browns sure seem to be getting a lot of "love" from bettors heading into Week 1. How could this be? After all, they are playing the Steelers, a team that - to put it mildly - has had their number through the years. Since returning to the league in 1999, the Cleveland franchise has beaten the Steelers only six times in 40 tries. Just three of those wins have come since 2003. Then there's the fact the Browns have not won a season opener since 2004! That's also the ONLY time since '99 they won a season opener as they are 1-18 SU overall w/ 14 of those losses at home. They've lost 13 straight. Why will this year be any different? Well, for starters, the Browns officially hit 'rock bottom' last year, becoming just the second team to ever go winless in a 16-game regular season. Despite my concerns over the coaching staff (not a fan of Hue Jackson), they are a LOCK to improve in 2018. Consider that they were 0-6 SU in games decided by seven points or less last season and had a -28 turnover margin. Those numbers will be near impossible to repeat. There's been a major upgrade at QB as well. Baker Mayfield was the #1 overall pick in April, but for now it's Tyrod Taylor starting under center. Taylor will cut way down on the number of turnovers. He was more than serviceable LY for a Buffalo team that made the playoffs. The overall talent on hand last year was not indicative of a team that should have gone winless. There has been across the board improvement with the roster coming into '18. While I understand it may be difficult to put your faith in Cleveland here, this play is just as much about fading Pittsburgh. The Steelers were lucky to win 13 games LY as they had a league-high eight victories by one score. They were then outclassed in the playoffs, at home, by Jacksonville. They enter this season w/ a major question mark at RB w/ LeVeon Bell continuing to hold out. Unless something drastic changes in the next 48 hrs, Bell will not play Sunday. WR Antonio Brown is also banged up. There are question marks w/ this defense as Ryan Shazier's future remains unclear. Then there is the fact that the Steelers have been a questionable road favorite for years under Mike Tomlin. They are on a 5-13 ATS slide laying four or more points away from home w/ seven outright losses. Ben Roethlisberger's TD-INT ratio has suffered greatly in these games. 8* Cleveland |
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09-09-18 | Bucs +10.5 v. Saints | Top | 48-40 | Win | 100 | 118 h 1 m | Show |
8* Tampa Bay (1:00 ET): New Orleans is getting a lot of love coming into this season. Many have them on their short list of Super Bowl contenders. But I have questions about their ability to duplicate last year's success. First off, the defense made a major leap in 2017, going from 31st to 10th in points allowed. After such a jump takes place, we typically see some sort of regression the following season. I do believe we'll see the Saints give up more yards and points than they did last year. Furthermore, can the Saints possibly be as dominant as they were last year when - at one point - they delivered eight straight wins, seven of them coming by eight points or more? I think not. This is a huge spread for Week 1 and I'll take the points w/ the Buccaneeers. New Orleans started last year 0-2, getting blown out by both Minnesota and New England. The usual defensive issues were present and another 7-9 SU season seemed inevitable. But then came the aformentioned win streak. They were just the 13th team since the merger to win seven straight games by more than a touchdown. That's impressive, but the majority of their victims were bad teams. They finished the year 4-4 over the final eight games, including playoffs. We all remember how the playoffs ended w/ the memorable finish in Minnesota. In addition to the likely defensive regression I mentioned above, the Saints will also have to deal w/ the absence of RB Mark Ingram for the first four weeks (suspended). Ingram isn't the only key player suspended for this game. Tampa Bay QB Jameis Winston will miss the first three games due to violating the league's personal conduct policy. But Ryan Fitzpatrick isn't that big of a downgrade from Winston. The schedule won't be easy these first three games as the Bucs will play three division champs from LY (also the Steelers & Eagles), but nevertheless I have the team improving in 2018. They overachieved two years ago in getting to 9-7 SU, but were a disappointment LY at 5-11. Look for them to finish somewhere in between this year. There have been major upgrades along the defensive line and that's where they could cause problems for Drew Brees and company. With no Ingram, I have my doubts about LY's Offensive Rookie of the Year Alvin Kamara being an every-down back. 8* Tampa Bay |
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09-06-18 | Falcons v. Eagles -2.5 | Top | 12-18 | Win | 100 | 53 h 21 m | Show |
8* Philadelphia (8:20 ET): As stated in the promo, I went big on the Eagles when these teams met last January in the Division Round. Oddsmakers overcompensated for the fact Philly was starting Nick Foles - and not Carson Wentz - at QB. Turns out I was right as not only did the Eagles win that game, they would of course go onto win the Super Bowl. With Wentz still out and Foles off a shaky preseason, we're not quite where we were at back in January, but it's close. The Eagles' have gradually been bet down over the course of the summer due to uncertainty over the QB position. Now, as we prepare to start a new season, we're at a point where they sure like a great value at home - at least to me. I say lay the short number. The Eagles return most of the key nucleus that won them the Super Bowl. Remember that Foles was the QB for the entire playoff run and played masterfully. I think it would be a mistake to think he can replicate that kind of performance this season, but he shouldn't have to. With so few dollars invested at QB (Wentz still on a rookie deal, Foles working on cheap deal), the team was able to go out and build an impressive roster around the most important position. This is why they won the Super Bowl. Their offensive line may be the best in the league and could feature as many as FOUR Pro Bowlers. They are relatively loaded (by modern NFL standards) at the skill positions (note: Alshon Jeffrey won't play here). The defense gave up only 18.2 PPG a year ago. Let's also not write off the power of home field advantage. This team is 15-3 SU/13-5 ATS the L2 yrs at Lincoln Financial Field and will be celebrating the Super Bowl win before kickoff. Atlanta figures to be in a competitive race w/ rival New Orleans for NFC South supremacy this year. Last year, under 1st year OC Steve Sarkisian, the offense could not sustain its other-worldly production from the year prior w/ Kyle Shanahan calling plays. That 2016 season saw the Falcons almost win their own Super Bowl, but the key word there is "almost." This was also not a good road team in 2017 as they went 3-7 ATS. There's always been the issue of an offensive decline when you take Matt Ryan and company outdoors. Once again, oddsmakers and (especially) the public are making the mistake of underestimating Philly. I have the Super Bowl Champs defending home turf. 8* Philadelphia |
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01-21-18 | Vikings v. Eagles +3.5 | Top | 7-38 | Win | 100 | 103 h 39 m | Show |
10* Philadelphia (6:40 ET): Last week, I went into great detail about how the absence of QB Carson Wentz was being drastically overvalued. Had Wentz been healthy, I would have made the Eagles roughly a touchdown favorite (at home) over the Falcons. They came in as underdogs, which I thought was ridiculous, and sure enough won the game outright 15-10. Nick Foles is a very capable backup QB in this league. Philadelphia's strength comes not from the quarterback position, but along the offensive and defensive lines. We saw that last week as they held Atlanta below 300 total yards. In fact, the Falcons' lone touchdown was scored off a turnover, on a drive that began at the Philly 18-yard line. Same verse as last week. Take the points. In case you've been living under a rock, the Vikings pulled off one of the more improable wins in playoff history last week, beating the Saints 29-24 on a walkoff Stefon Diggs' 61-yard touchdown. Obviously, there's a case to be made that the Vikings shouldn't even be in this game and I'm not talking about Case Keenum. Now, maybe if Marcus Williams makes the tackle, Minnesota still kicks a game-winning field goal. Regardless, I don't believe the road team should be favored in this spot. It's the same thing as Atlanta last week. Were Wentz healthy, I'd have the Eagles listed as 3.5-pt favorites (maybe 4). I do not think Wentz is worth a full touchdown to the spread. According to my research, this will be just the SIXTH time under the current playoff format that the host of a conference championship game is an underdog. Two of the previous five featured non-#1 seeds. The last time we saw this situation was two years ago when the Broncos upset the Patriots. Lending itself to taking the points is the fact this should be a low-scoring battle between two good defenses. Needless to say, when the season started, no one though it would be Case Keenum vs. Nick Foles in the NFC Champ Game. That speaks to the two defenses here. Remember though; the Eagles have lost only once at home this season and that came in the meaningless regular season finale. They are outscoring visitors by two touchdowns per game. Earlier in the year, the Vikings were a road favorite at Carolina and lost the game outright. Last year on this field, Minnesota lost 21-10, also as a slight road favorite. 10* Philadelphia |
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01-21-18 | Jaguars +9.5 v. Patriots | Top | 20-24 | Win | 100 | 99 h 4 m | Show |
8* Jacksonville (3:05 ET): I told you last week that the Jaguars had a great shot at upsetting the Steelers and sure enough that they did, winning 45-42 as touchdown underdogs. Despite being outgained in the contest, rather significantly (545-378), it felt as if they were never in any real danger of losing as they jumped out to a 21-0 lead and it was a meaningless TD (w/ :01 remaining) that made it a one-score final. Yet again, I feel the oddsmakers are underrating this team. One week after allowing 42 points and 545 total yds seems like an inopportune time to mention how good the defense has been, but the fact is they still rank #3 in points allowed and are #1 against the pass. New England may lead the league in point differential, but the Jags are third, so the spread just shouldn't be this high. Take the points. Now, admittedly, I also played Tennessee against New England in the Divisional Round. That one, clearly, didn't work out. But remember that the Titans were able to take an early 7-0 lead after driving the length of the field. I maintain that the Pats' defense remains vastly overrated. While ranking 5th in points allowed, they were #29 in yards allowed. That "bend but don't break" mentality caused the largest gap between the number of actual points they allowed and what you'd expect them to allow (based on yards). The Titans simply lacked the firepower (and creative playcalling) to take advantage. I still believe that Matt Patricia's (who isn't sticking around to fix this) unit is capable of hurting this team. During practice this week, Tom Brady reportedly injured his hand. It's not thought to be serious, but still, it's an injury. Patricia isn't the only NE coordinator w/ one foot out the door. OC Josh McDaniels is also reportedly going to leave (to be Indianapolis HC). Remember that the Patriots don't have a LeVeon Bell that they can theoretically lean on here either. They are a pass-first offense and that's not really a great matchup when facing the league's #1 pass defense. As an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 pts, the Jags have covered 12 of their last 16 (3-0 ATS this year). They are 4-2, straight up and against the spread, as a dog of any kind this season. Don't let Jacksonville's 10-6 SU record fool you. They were better than that as they showed last week. The giant "chasm" that is thought to exist between these two teams simply isn't there. 8* Jacksonville |
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01-14-18 | Jaguars +7.5 v. Steelers | Top | 45-42 | Win | 100 | 113 h 57 m | Show |
10* Jacksonville (1:05 ET): All the way back in Week 9, the Jaguars beat the Steelers 30-9, right here in Pittsburgh. The final score was misleading though. Total yardage was actually in favor of the Steelers (371-313), yet that hardly mattered as Ben Roethlisberger threw a career-high 5 INT's, two of them returned for Jaguars' touchdowns (in a three-minute span). Jags RB Leonard Fournette then gallivanted his way for a 90-yard touchdown late to make the game REALLY seem like a blowout. Oddsmakers seem unfazed by the result, essentially installing the Steelers as the same size favorite for Sunday's rematch. So now worries for those Terrible Towel wavers, right? After all, Big Ben is highly unlikely to toss another five interceptions here and no team has ever won in Pittsburgh twice in the same season. Well, except the 2007 Jaguars. But that's irrelevant to the discussion, right? Probably, but I'm taking the points anyway. I don't think Pittsburgh is as good as its 13-3 SU record would seem to indicate. They may come into the playoffs as the "hottest" team (won 10 of 11), but their +98 point differential was "only" 7th best in the league (barely ahead of the rival Ravens, who didn't make the playoffs). The key to their record was a league-high eight wins by a TD or less (lost only two such games, ironically one of which came to the Patriots, costing them homefield). Also, despite being off a bye week, it's not like they're w/o attrition. WR Antonio Brown is still recovering from a calf injury. While he's expected to play, the league's top receiver won't be at 100 percent and that's a problem going against the league's top pass defense. On the other side of the ball, CB Artie Burns is still battling knee issues and is one of three defensive players listed as questionable. Then there is the ongoing sage of RB Le'Veon Bell, who essentially told the front office they better not franchise him in the offseason. That could be a distraction. As for the Jags, their 10-3 Wild Card win over Buffalo was about as unimpressive as it gets. But there's plenty of reason to like this team in an underdog role Sunday. As mentioned before, they come in w/ the top ranked pass defense in the league. Both times the team was a road dog of 3.5 to 7 pts in the regular season, they won and (obviously) covered. Jacksonville actually outscored its regular season opponents by a wider margin than did Pittsburgh, ranking third in the league in point differential, trailing only New England and Philadelphia (each conference's top seed). Jacksonville also impressively swept the AFC North (Pittsburgh's division) this year, going 4-0 SU/ATS. The Jags top-ranked rushing offense should find success against a Steelers' defense that ranks just 20th at stopping the run. In the reg season matchup, Fournette went for a career-best 181 yds w/ TWO TD's. 10* Jacksonville |
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01-13-18 | Titans +14 v. Patriots | Top | 14-35 | Loss | -115 | 96 h 7 m | Show |
8* Tennessee (8:15 ET): No one, and I do mean NO ONE is going to give the Titans a chance in this one. Why should they? This is a team that was outscored during the regular season, only to own seven victories by a TD or less. The most recent came on Wild Card Weekend, in improbable fashion, as they rallied back from a 21-3 deficit to defeat Kansas City 22-21 as 9-pt underdogs. Now they must travel to Foxboro to take on the defending Super Bowl Champion Patriots, who are rested and highly unlikely to lose. Thankfully, however, we don't need anything close to a SU win here. The oddsmakers (predictably) are being all too generous in this one, installing Tennessee as a near 2-TD dog. My own power rankings say the spread should be closer to 10. I, for one, don't believe New England is as impervious as they're made out to be, thus I'm fading them in this spot. Take the points. Last week saw the Titans take advantage of a suspect Chiefs' defense, one that has been "bend but don't break" for years under Andy Reid. KC was middle of the road in PPG allowed during the regular season (21.2), but 28th in yards at 365.1. I bring this up because New England's own "bend but don't break" mentality is far more severe. The Patriots are a completely misleading 5th in points allowed (18.5 per game) coming into this game as they happen to also rank 29th in yards allowed per game (366.0). Eventually, that catches up w/ a defense. For all the talk about how weak the AFC South (Tennessee's division) is, New England gets to play six games every year against Buffalo, Miami and the Jets. No wonder they win 12+ games every year. Then there is the matter of the reported inner turmoil engulfing the Patriots' organization. Normally, I put very little stock into such stuff, but here it makes sense. Also, both coordinators (Josh McDaniel and Matt Patricia) may very well have "one foot out the door" at this point as both are heavily rumored to be taking head coaching jobs elsewhere next season. The Patriots are not "as dominant as ever" in 2017 as they were only +28.1 YPG and barely outgained their opponents on a per play basis (6.1 to 6.0). That number of YPP allowed was one of the worst marks in the league. I like the Tennessee offense better w/ Derrick Henry as the feature back as he had 147 yds in the 2nd half alone last week. New England's defense ranks 31st against the run. I don't think this will be a blowout. 8* Tennessee |
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01-13-18 | Falcons v. Eagles +3 | Top | 10-15 | Win | 100 | 92 h 17 m | Show |
10* Philadelphia (4:30 ET): For the 1st time ever, we have a #6 seed favored over a #1 seed in the Divisional Round. In fact, according to my own research this will be just the third time under the current playoff format (dates back to 1990) that the team coming off a bye is a dog. The first two instances, both recent, have produced mixed results. The first occurred in 2011 w/ the Alex Smith-led 49ers beating the Saints 36-32 as 4-pt pups in a great game. The next time (2013) again involved the 49ers, but this time the proverbial "shoe was on the other foot" as they came in as 1.5-pt faves at Carolina and won 23-10. There really was no extenuating circumstance as two why either home team was a dog in those two situations, other than that they were considered inferior to their opponent. Here, there is most definitely an "extenuating circumstance." The Eagles are w/o their starting QB Carson Wentz, a MVP candidate that was lost to a season-ending injury late in the regular season. Even if you are adamant about Wentz's importance to the team, it is difficult to justify the change in spread here. My own power rankings, if Wentz were playing, would have the Eagles laying about a touchdown. Even Wentz's biggest supporters could not possibly claim he's worth 10 pts to the spread, a number only reserved for the likes of Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady and even they may not be worth quite that much. Philly is 7-1 SU at home this year, their lone loss coming in the meaningless regular season finale when they rested key players. Yes, I know the offense did not look good in the last two games. But, the coaching staff and first team offense has now had ample time to prepare for Nick Foles being the starter. Foles has been a starter before in this league and looked good against the Giants three weeks ago. The Eagles have a good enough team where the QB does not have to carry them. Atlanta impressed many w/ their 26-13 win at Los Angeles last week. However, that was in many ways a "phony blowout." The Falcons were actually outgained 361-322 w/ the difference being 10 pts off two costly Rams' special teams turnovers. Also, there was a late "goal line stand" where the Rams normally would have kicked a FG and it appeared on 4th down that the Falcons got away w/ pass interference. Just last year, the Eagles' defense shut down a far more potent Falcons' offense, holding them to a season-low 15 pts. As discussed in last week's analysis (had Under Atlanta-LA), this year's Falcons' offense is scoring way less than LY (22.3 PPG vs. 34 PPG). Though the weather isn't expected to be nasty Saturday night, Atlanta still is a dome team playing outdoors. Sure, they won last week, but that was in warm in LA where the homefield advantage is about as minimal as anywhere in the league. I expect Foles to play well here and the Eagles' defense (#1 in the league against the run!) to be the difference maker. Atlanta may very well run out of gas after needing to beat Carolina in the reg season finale, then flying out West LW to beat the Rams (now coming back East). They are just 3-6 ATS this year on the road. 10* Philadelphia |
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01-07-18 | Panthers +6.5 v. Saints | Top | 26-31 | Win | 100 | 121 h 20 m | Show |
8* Carolina (4:25 ET): This is lone matchup between division rivals on Wild Card Weekend, thus we're bound to hear about "how hard it is to beat the same team three times in a season" (Saints won both reg season matchups and thus the division, which is why they have homefield advantage here). That's not necessarily true as this situation has seen the team that won both regular season matchups go 11-5 SU since 1990 (but only 8-7-1 ATS). However, we have not seen a three-game season sweep take place in the NFL since 2009 when the Cowboys did it to the Eagles. To me what's even harder to do is cover against the same opponent SEVEN straight times, which is what the Saints are trying to do here. Take the points. When New Orleans rolled into Carolina all the way back in Week 3, they were 0-2 SU/ATS on the season and little was being expected from them. Boy, how things changed in a hurry. The Saints would go onto win, 34-13 as 5.5-pt underdogs, and never looked back as they won 11 of their next 13 games. Interestingly enough, that Wk 3 matchup was the ONLY time the Saints won as an underdog all season. They'd go onto beat the Panthers here in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome, 31-21, this time as six-point favorites in Week 13. How impressive was it for the Saints to score 30+ in both matchups vs. Carolina? Well, the Panthers allowed only one other 30+ pt game ALL SEASON, to the Patriots back in Week 4. For the year, Carolina allows just 20.4 PPG (same as New Orleans!) and is 7th in yards allowed. While New Orleans has won five straight home playoff games, Carolina has never lost in the Wild Card round, going 3-0 SU/ATS all-time. A big difference between this rubber match and the two regular season games will be the presence of Cam Newton's favorite target, TE Greg Olsen (didn't play either reg season game). While I'm not saying Carolina will win outright here, a close loss certainly seems like the strongest possibility. The Panthers were 7-1 SU in one-score games during the regular season and with regression likely to take hold, I can see them losing one here. Getting back to something I mentioned earlier, the Panthers are 0-6 ATS the L6 H2H meetings vs. the Saints, but they have won three of those straight up. Four of those six games have been decided by 5 pts or less. The Panthers were 5-2 SU and ATS as dogs this year. 8* Carolina |
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01-07-18 | Bills v. Jaguars -8 | Top | 3-10 | Loss | -103 | 118 h 45 m | Show |
10* Jacksonville (1:05 ET): What a story. The Buffalo Bills have ended what was professional sports' longest postseason drought, which embarrassingly dated all the way back to 1999. In a bit of irony, the last time the Bills made the playoffs saw the Titans, Rams and Jaguars all in the field, same as this year! That '99 season (w/ Doug Flutie as the QB!) ended w/ the now infamous "Music City Miracle" in Tennessee. I'm not sure exactly how this one will end, but I'm confident that the time and place will be this Sunday and Jacksonville. Not to ruin a nice story, but the Bills are pretty easily the worst team in the playoff field, if not one of the weaker playoff teams in recent memory. They were outscored during the regular season by 57 pts, yet got in over more qualified teams - Baltimore and Los Angeles - due to a convoluted tiebreaker that only came about when the Ravens shockingly allowed Andy Dalton and Cincinnati to drive the ball down the field and beat them. I'm laying the pts in this Wild Card matchup. Jacksonville comes into the playoffs off B2B losses, but do not let that erase what was a very impressive regular season. I was certainly a little disappointed to see them lose 15-10 at Tennessee last week (played all starters) and the week before, they gave up a season-high 44 pts to Jimmy Garoppolo and the 49ers. But over the course of 16 games, only the Patriots and Eagles outscored their opponents by larger margin. The Jags' defense, particularly against the pass, underwent a radical transformation this season. They allow only 169.9 YPG through the air (easily #1), had 55 sacks (#2) and allowed the second fewest points per game (16.8) overall. Facing a Buffalo offense w/ Tyrod Taylor at QB and possibly no RB LeSean McCoy, I look for the Jags to turn in a dominant defensive performance in this one. Buffalo's offense averages only 18.9 PPG, easily the fewest among playoff entrants. On the road, that number dips even further, down to 17.6. Their strength is running the ball (126 YPG), but w/o McCoy, they are going to be in a lot of trouble. Taylor, left for dead by this organization midseason, averages only 169.5 YPG passing. This is a battle of the league's second worst passing offense against the top passing defense, which is obviously a complete mismatch. Jacksonville also comes in sporting a +10 turnover margin (was higher earlier in the season) and is #2 in the league in takeaways. Buffalo, admittedly, only gave the ball away 16x. Still though, with or w/o McCoy (particularly w/o him!), I see the Bills' offense struggling in this one. There's another mismatch too, this one w/ the Jags' offense going against the Bills' defense. The former led the league in rushing offense while the latter was 30th at stopping the run. For all the talk about Buffalo's "Cinderella Story," let's not forget that this is Jacksonville's 1st playoff appearance since '07 and tickets went very fast for this home game. 10* Jacksonville |
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12-31-17 | Jaguars +6 v. Titans | Top | 10-15 | Win | 100 | 116 h 59 m | Show |
8* Jacksonville (4:25 ET): Tennessee has everything (playoff berth!) to play for here while Jacksonville has nothing to play for here. The Jags have already clinched the AFC South and will host a playoff game on Wild Card Weekend as the AFC's #3 seed. That said, "stranger things" have happened in Week 17 and by all accounts, the Jags are playing their starters here. If this were a "regular week," Jacksonville would absolutely be favored here, even on the road. Their #1 scoring defense giving up 44 pts to the 49ers last week has to have left a "bad taste" in the players' mouths and I'm banking on that there's nothing they'd rather do, then knock out a division rival from playoff contention. The Titans have lost three in a row and have been outscored and outgained this season. Take the points. This is a revenge spot for the Jags, who lost at home to the Titans, 37-16 all the way back in Week 2. It's their worst loss of the season and was the most points allowed, until last week. However, that performance is in no way indicative of the kind of season the Jags have enjoyed. They are #3 in the league in point differential (#1 among AFC teams) and outgaining foes by an impressive 86.5 YPG (they are +0.8 yards per play). As mentioned earlier, the defense was #1 in scoring going into last week (now #2) and is still #3 in yards allowed. The offense will be w/o WR Marquise Lee for a second straight game, but also gets back Allan Hurns after a six-week absence. Yes, a +13 turnover margin has been huge for this team. But they are very good and worthy of being AFC South Champs. Tennessee, on the other hand, is very fortunate to even be in playoff contention. As mentioned earlier, they have been outscored and outgained over the course of the season. They've dropped three in a row, by only a total of 14 pts, but that was "due" as they'd previously gone 5-1 SU in games decided by 7 pts or less. This is the first time in his career that QB Marcus Mariota will even suit up for a Week 17 game. He has not been good down the stretch and the offense will also be w/o DeMarco Murray for the first time in two seasons here. On the defensive side of the ball, the Titans' top CB (Logan Ryan) may also be out. I'm counting on a Titans' gagjob here as Jacksonville is a much better team. 8* Jacksonville |
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12-31-17 | Panthers +4 v. Falcons | Top | 10-22 | Loss | -110 | 116 h 59 m | Show |
10* Carolina (4:25 ET): Ok, so here's the setup for this one. If Atlanta wins, then they grab the NFC's final playoff spot. (They can still make it w/ a Seattle loss too). Carolina has already clinched a playoff spot, but in a field that is already pretty well set, the Panthers position is the most volatile. They can finish anywhere from #2 to #5 based on how the day goes. The best case scenario for them involves both Minnesota and New Orleans losing (note: both are favored) and them winning. That would result in Carolina leaping to the #2 seed, winning the NFC South and getting a 1st round bye! Minnesota plays at 1:00 ET and if they win, then that scenario is dead, but regardless, the Panthers will take the field at 4:25 ET knowing they have a chance to win the South (New Orleans also plays at 4:25 ET): As long as the Saints don't take a huge early lead (presuming the Panthers are scoreboard watching), we shouldn't worry about effort here. Take the points w/ the better team. Carolina won the season's 1st meeting, 20-17 as three-point favorites. I felt that anything above a field goal for this rematch would mean value on the Panthers and because of the situation the Falcons are facing, the oddsmakers have obliged. Atlanta did finish w/ a slight edge in total yds in that 1st meeting, but Carolina had more first downs and ran for 200 yards. The Panthers also held a 10-pt lead for most of the 4th quarter. They've been outstanding in the underdog role all season long, going not only 5-1 ATS, but also 5-1 straight up. They've won three straight - all by a TD or less - and while they were certainly lucky to win at Tampa Bay LW, this has been the BEST team in the league at winning close this year, going 7-1 straight up in one-score games. While Carolina ran for 200+ yards in that Week 9 matchup, Atlanta had no such success over land as their RB combo of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman were held to 51 yds - total. Carolina's defense, which has been one of the best in the league this season, will be back at full strength this week as both DE Charles Johnson and LB Thomas Davis will return from suspensions. While both of these teams allow just 20.3 PPG, Carolina holds its foes to fewer yards per game. Atlanta is surprisingly only 4-3 SU/ATS at home this season while Carolina is 5-2 SU/ATS on the road. 10* Carolina |
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12-31-17 | Redskins v. Giants +3.5 | Top | 10-18 | Win | 100 | 113 h 48 m | Show |
8* NY Giants (1:00 ET): This is a game where nothing is on the line as both teams are eliminated from playoff contention. In the case of the 2-13 Giants, they've been out of playoff contention for some time in what has been a complete disaster of a season. Now, I had them ranked pretty high on my list of "likely disappointments" for 2017, but even at my most pessimistic, I could not have envisioned this. Already, there have been changes at head coach and GM, so clearly the organization is already thinking about next season when they'll likely be starting someone at QB not named Eli Manning. But in what could be Eli's final start at Giants Stadium, I expect the G-Men to show up. It's not like 7-8 Washington has any reason to be motivated. This will be just the third time in the last dozen years that the Redskins are a road favorite over a NFC East rival. They didn't fare too well the 2nd time, which was earlier this year in Dallas, as they were routed (38-14!) by a short-handed Cowboys team (no Elliott). I'll take the points here. The Giants have not won since Ben McAdoo was fired, but they did play hard in their last home game, which came against a division rival (Eagles). In that game, they actually finished w/ a nice edge in total yards (504-341). Despite him being an alleged "offensive guru," the Giants NEVER scored 30+ points under McAdoo. It was back to their old selves last week as they were shut out 23-0 in Arizona. That said, they also had the edge in total yds there, albeit just barely (293-289). One of the Cardinals' three touchdowns came from the defense late in the game and over half their total yardage came on just two drives. The Giants are w/o two key members of their secondary (Landon Collins and Eli Apple, who ironically are feuding), but the offense showed enough life in the Philly game to give me confidence here. Washington is not favored often (only five times previously this season) and they've been decimated by injuries - on both sides of the ball. The offense's yards per play have gone WAY down this season and speaking of potentially departing QB's, Kirk Cousins may have "one foot out the door" here. The defense, which is second worst in the league at stopping the run, are w/o key players at all levels. On the road this year, the Redskins are -7.5 PPG. 8* NY Giants |
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12-24-17 | Giants +4 v. Cardinals | Top | 0-23 | Loss | -115 | 125 h 38 m | Show |
8* NY Giants (4:25 ET): These are two bad teams that I wouldn't want to lay points with, so the Cardinals are the ones to be faded this week, simply by default. Arizona is 4-9-1 ATS overall and is just 1-3 SU when favored, winning those games by an average of just one point per game. This is an offense that has not topped 16 pts in three consecutive games and is now being piloted by QB Drew Stanton again. Stanton was the starter for two games before spraining his knee back in Week 12. According to HC Bruce Arians, Stanton's knee "isn't completely recovered" and "he's still in a fair amount of pain." That should tell you all you need to know about Blaine Gabbert, who started the previous five games. The Cards were able to win two of those five games w/ Gabbert as the starter, both wins at home, those being somewhat shocking upsets of Jacksonville and Tennessee. But they have failed to gain even 300 total yds in B2B games and haven't scored a touchdown in 10 quarters! So again, not sure why you'd want to lay points with this team right now. All they've put on the scoreboard the last two weeks is nine Phil Dawson field goals. Defensively, they've been good. But the Giants' offense finally showed some life last week w/ a 29-point effort against the Eagles. It was their most points scored in any game the L2 seasons and they also gained a season-high 504 yards! Now this season has obviously been a disaster for the G-Men. Even I, who predicted big-time regression from them at the start of the season, could not have envisioned things would be this bad. HC Ben McAdoo was fired for his atrocious handling of QB Eli Manning, who is probably playing for pride at this point. Going back to the numbers last week, we saw what he's still capable of doing. With McAdoo gone, the team can at least play loose. Also, NY is pretty much "locked" into the #2 draft position next Spring. So, a win wouldn't necessarily "screw things up" either. While they're 0-3 SU and ATS as favorites, the Giants are a more respectable 6-5 ATS getting points this season. They're also 4-3 ATS on the road as opposed to 2-5 ATS at home. This one just boils down to the fact I don't see why you'd lay points w/ Arizona, who has not been favored since Week 9. 8* NY Giants |
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12-24-17 | Seahawks +5 v. Cowboys | Top | 21-12 | Win | 100 | 125 h 38 m | Show |
8* Seattle (4:25 ET): Since I became a professional handicapper (back in 2011), I'm not sure if there's been a single instance of "Seahawks stock" being any lower than it is right now. A number of injuries, primarily on the defensive side of the ball, was going to make qualifying for the playoffs a sixth straight time a "tall order." But last week's humiliation at the hands of the Rams (lost 42-7 at HOME) all but ended that aspiration. Now Russell Wilson and company have to hit the road to face a fellow 8-6 team, one that has renewed optimism due to the return of RB Ezekiel Elliott. That team is of course the Cowboys, who have now won three straight after being "left for dead" themselves on Thanksgiving. Dallas was fortunate to win last week in Oakland as Raiders QB Derek Carr fumbled through the end zone when it appeared his team was on the verge of going in for the game-winning score. Before that, the Cowboys had beaten the Redskins and Giants, two other "also-rans." I realize this is a "different team" w/ Elliott in the backfield, but they still could be w/o their best offensive lineman (Tyron Smith) and as we saw in the Atlanta game last month, that's a very big deal. Even w/ Elliott back and the Seahawks hurting, this game represents the Cowboys' toughest test since getting clobbered by the Chargers on Thanksgiving. When facing a team that has a winning record, in the second half of the season, America's Team is just 2-9 ATS the previous three seasons. I view this as a GREAT "buy low" spot on Seattle. First off, Wilson is 13-5-1 ATS as an underdog in his career. The L3 weeks have seen the Seahawks play the Eagles, Jaguars and Rams, who I - collectively - have rated as the top three teams in the league. It's been a much more challenging set of games than what the Cowboys faced as none of their previous three opponents rank inside my top 19. It's rare to find Seattle coming in off B2B losses, but they're 2-0 SU/ATS in that situation the L3 seasons. Furthermore, underdogs of three points or more, that are off a loss by 35+ points, have cashed in at an extraordinary 72.5% rate (37-14-2 ATS). Dallas is only 3-4 SU and ATS at home this season and 21-33-2 ATS laying points to fellow NFC foes. 8* Seattle |
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12-24-17 | Dolphins +10 v. Chiefs | Top | 13-29 | Loss | -110 | 121 h 14 m | Show |
8* Miami (1:00 ET): The Chiefs recorded a huge win last Saturday, beating the Chargers 30-13 at home. That all but assures they're going to win the AFC West for a second consecutive year (barring them losing both of their remaining games and LA winning theirs). So, in essence, we've got a bit of a "flat spot" on our hands this week. While the narrative here will center around "KC being back on track," all they've done is win B2B home games against the division. It will be easy for them to overlook the Dolphins this week and I feel that taking the points is the way to go here. The Chiefs are only outscoring opponents by roughly four points per game this season and have not been favored by this many point at any other point this season. In fact, the Chiefs are 0-2 ATS the L3 seasons as DD favorites. This team simply isn't built to blow teams out, even though they have won by double digits each of the last two weeks. But again, keep in mind those were familiar foes they were playing for the second time this season. Miami is a team they have not seen since 2014 and that was a different Dolphins' regime. There are also a number of players on the Chiefs' roster battling an illness this week. The list includes LB Justin Houston, TE Travis Kelce and LT Eric Fisher. All have missed practice time this week and even if any/all play Sunday, they likely won't be 100 percent. Miami still does have an outside shot at the playoffs, so don't expect them to go down easily here. They must win both remaining games and hope for some help. It's a long shot, but again, expect effort this week after a poor showing in Buffalo. Remember we're less than two weeks removed from them upsetting the Patriots! There are two other factors that have me believing the Dolphins keep this game close. One is that the weather forecast calls for high winds, meaning a low-scoring game is a very real possibility. Two, the Chiefs are 0-6-1 ATS their last seven games hosting a sub-.500 foe. They were favored by at least six points (as they are here) in all seven contests. My best guess for this one is that KC wins a very close game. 8* Miami |
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12-24-17 | Chargers v. Jets +7.5 | Top | 14-7 | Win | 100 | 121 h 14 m | Show |
10* NY Jets (1:00 ET): A Chargers resurgence is something that I'd been calling for the better part of the last two seasons. But I have to admit; once they started 0-4 this year, I'd pretty much given up all hope. The inability to stay healthy, play turnover free football or win close games kept dooming them and thus when they were 3-6 SU, most (myself included) considered them a mere afterthought. But then they won four straight games - three of them by 17 pts or more - to get back into the playoff hunt. It was "put up or shut up" time last Saturday in Kansas City as LA had a chance to take over first place in the AFC West. One of the (several) reasons I laid off there was the Chiefs were simply a stronger opponent than what the Chargers had faced recently. Sure enough, the Bolts lost 30-13 and their playoff hopes are now on "life support." The Chargers are basically looking at just the Wild Card at this point. They'll obviously need some help to get it as Baltimore has an easy schedule, and thus is likely to claim one of the two WC's. Tennessee is a game up, but has two difficult home games to play. The Chargers have the tiebreak (head to head) over a Bills team they crushed in the "ill-fated" Nathan Peterman start. Best case; LA wins out and somehow ends up in a 9-7 tie w/ Buffalo for the final spot. But you have to wonder about the psyche of the team after last week's humbling at the hands of the Chiefs (8th straight loss to KC). This is also an early start time for the West Coast team and they won't have TE Hunter Henry (done for year), one of QB Philip Rivers' favorite targets. RB Austin Ekeler, injured last week, is dealing w/ a broken hand. On the defensive side of the ball, they will be w/o MLB Denzel Perryman and DT Corey Liuget. Special teams are also still a major concern here as the kicking game has made a league-low 70.4% of its FG attempts this season. The Jets have already exceeded their projected win total for the season and have been competitive here at home. Their record at MetLife Stadium is 4-3 SU and that includes a win over the same Chiefs team that has beaten LA twice. None of the three home losses have been by more than eight points. Of course, Bryce Petty is the QB of Gang Green now, but that didn't stop them from cashing for me last week (at New Orleans!). To me, if the Chargers are to win this game, it will be close (something they are due to do). The Jets are only being outscored by 4 PPG for the year. 10* NY Jets |
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12-18-17 | Falcons -6.5 v. Bucs | Top | 24-21 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 3 m | Show |
8* Atlanta (8:30 ET): It seems as if no one wants any part of the Buccaneers this week on Monday Night Football, and I can't really blame them. TB was a prime candidate to regress in 2017 and regress they have falling from 9 to (right now) 4 wins. Last year's squad led the league in net upsets (+6) and it's important to recall was only favored in THREE games. This year, they've been favored six times and fared okay (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS), but the underdog role has been quite unkind as they're 0-6 SU and 0-5-1 ATS. This line does seem inflated, but it's a virtual "must win" for the Dirty Birds, who already got a couple gifts yday w/ Seattle and Dallas both losing. The first meeting between these NFC South rivals took place just three weeks ago and saw the Falcons win by two touchdowns. Not enough has changed since then to make me think this one will go any differently. Lay the points. Furthermore, Atlanta has had extra time to prepare here as they last played two Thursdays ago when they picked up a huge win, beating New Orleans 20-17 as 2.5-pt home favorites (that line was quite volitaile throught the week). I, fortunately, was on the Falcons that game as they moved to 8-5 SU and maintained control of their playoff destiny. New Orleans and Carolina both won yday, but if Atlanta wins out, then they will repeat as NFC South Champs as they play those two teams the final two weeks. After some midseason struggles, Matt Ryan and company have won four of their last five and the defense has allowed 20 pts or less four times. Tampa has lost three straight and last week fell "at the gun" (last second FG) at home to Detroit. That result all but ended their season and it's fair to question how motivated the home dog will be here. Aside from a 30-20 win over Miami on 11.19, the Bucs have failed top 21 pts in any of the last seven games. They are averaging only 17.8 PPG at home this year. Even worse, on the defensive end, stud DT Gerald McCoy is out w/ a biceps injury. He led the team in sacks w/ five and the rest of the defense has just 12 on the year. (They rank last overall in sacks). TB's defense had no answers for Julio Jones in that first meeting, allowing him 12 catches for 253 yards. Atlanta's defense just held NO to 306 total yds, including only 50 on the ground. 8* Atlanta |
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12-17-17 | Cowboys v. Raiders +3 | Top | 20-17 | Push | 0 | 101 h 33 m | Show |
10* Oakland (8:30 ET): When this game was initially announced as a nationally televised affair, clearly, the schedule-makers had in mind that more would be at stake. But both Dallas and Oakland have essentially been confined to "also-ran" status at this juncture of the season. The Cowboys have been victimized by the Ezekiel Elliott suspension, not to mention some key injuries on both sides of the ball. The Raiders have fallen prey to some good old regression, which I warned their faithful was likely to take hold after a 2016 that saw them go 12-4 SU despite only outscoring opponents by 31 pts. Coming into Sunday night, "America's Team" has posted B2B victories, but within their own division against two inferior foes. I don't agree w/ how this line has moved (early in the week) - at all - and will be taking the points w/ the Silver and Black. |
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12-17-17 | Packers +2.5 v. Panthers | Top | 24-31 | Loss | -100 | 93 h 3 m | Show |
8* Green Bay (1:00 ET): The wait is apparently over. Aaron Rodgers will suit up for the Pack this week, ending an eight-week absence. In preparation of this announcement, I jumped on GB early this week (getting them at a nice price), but note this play is still absolutely valid. The Packers may have only gone 3-5 w/o Rodgers in the lineup, but are off B2B wins as well, both coming in overtime. They're now 7-6 SU and one-game back of the final Wild Card in the NFC. With Rodgers back, the likelihood of "running the table" (winning out) obviously increases and if the team does that, then they may improbably make the playoffs. One of the teams they are chasing is who they are playing at this week. Take the points. Carolina is 9-4 SU (two games ahead of GB) and off a huge win (here at home) over Minnesota. They blew a 24-13 lead LW, but were able to score the GW TD under two minutes ago. Overall, the Panthers have won five of six (only loss at New Orleans). They've played good defense all season long (allow just 302.1 YPG). But I think it's still important to note that they are only outscoring opponents by an average of less than a field goal per game. The return of Rodgers had to be a bit of a "shock to the system" for Carolina, who I don't think was anticipating facing him (was initially thought to be returning last week). Meanwhile, there can be no denying just how much better GB is w/ Rodgers under center. Backup Brett Hundley performed admirably in his absence, but the truth is the Pack were pretty lucky to win the L2 weeks. However, the offense did still score an average of 27 PPG the L3 wks. Rodgers impact will be felt though, primarily by Jordy Nelson, who (not surprisingly) had much better numbers when #12 was in the lineup and not Hundley. Rodgers had a 13-3 TD-INT ratio before going down w/ the collarbone injury. It's as simple here as me putting my faith in Rodgers being a difference maker. 8* Green Bay |
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12-17-17 | Jets +17 v. Saints | Top | 19-31 | Win | 100 | 93 h 3 m | Show |
8* NY Jets (1:00 ET): A total "hold your nose" & take the points situation. Yes, the Jets are w/o Josh McCown and gained only 100 total yds in a shutout loss to the Broncos last week. They're forced to go w/ Bryce Petty as their starting QB here. My raw power ratings (which respect the Saints greatly!) have this line only at -10.5. Petty is a downgrade from McCown for sure, but I'm not sure one that necessitates almost a full touchdown move on the pointspread. New Orleans finds itself smack dab in the middle of an "Atlanta sandwich" as they lost to the Falcons last week and will rematch w/ them (here at the Superdome) next week. The Jets have been better than all of us thought they'd be this year as they're only being outscored by 3.5 PPG. Take the points. For years, the Saints were an "all-offense, no defense" team being carried by QB Drew Brees. This year's resurgence has come about primarily due to a vastly improved run game and defense. The "dynamic duo" of Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara may find some tough sledding here, however, as the Jets' D ranks #13 against the run. Also, Kamara is coming off a game where he had to leave w/ a concussion. Because they've been off for 10 days (played Thursday last week), Kamara has gotten a full week of practice in, but that last game saw the Saints suffer tremendous attrition as 10 different players left the field due to injury. This team has performed tremendously as a favorite this season, going 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS, but this will be the first time they've been asked to lay double digits in the L3 seasons. They're just 5-12 ATS L17 times laying 10 or more pts. The Jets haven't been great on the road, but even w/ Petty starting for the 1st time since last year, there's value to be had here. Prior to being shutout last week, the Jets had outgained each of their previous four opponents. Going back to all the injuries the Saints suffered last week, the majority of them were on the defensive side of the ball. They could be w/o as many as three starters here - DE Hendrickson, LB Klein and DB Vaccaro - one at each level. They also could be w/o BOTH starting guards alongside the offensive line. At the very worst, the "backdoor" should be open late in the game and I can see a late Jets score getting the cover. 8* NY Jets |
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12-16-17 | Bears v. Lions -5 | Top | 10-20 | Win | 100 | 73 h 35 m | Show |
8* Detroit (4:30 ET): This line has come down during the week, presumably due to the Bears "huge" upset win over the Bengals last week. It was 33-7 in favor of the Monsters of the Midway, who were six-point dogs in what ended up being - easily - their largest margin of victory of the season. Chicago has faceplanted (i.e. lost outright) both of the two times they've been favored in 2017, but are a respectable 6-4 ATS as a dog (w/ four outright wins). However, I do not see them winning B2B games and with the number being so short, I'm going w/ the Lions in a game they almost "have to have." The Lions escaped Tampa Bay last week w/ a 27-24 win (won on a last second FG) and enter this game at 7-6 SU, one game behind of the final Wild Card spot. Having already suffered losses to both Carolina and Atlanta, the margin for error is almost non-existant now for the team from the Motor City. Fortunately, they have had Chicago's number in recent seasons. Going back to the 2013 season, they've taken eight of the nine head to head matchups in this NFC North rivalry. That includes a 27-24 win back in Wk 11 where they spotted the Bears a 10-pt lead on the road. Interestingly, the Lions were three-point road favorites that game. The market certainly seems to have overadjusted here considering the switch in homefield advantage. Chicago is not a strong offensive team as they average only 16.0 PPG on the road. Last week's effort is not indicative of the entire package here as rookie QB Mitchell Trubisky may very well have the worst group of receivers in the league to throw to. Note that they'd topped 17 pts only once in their previous six contests. Last week was their best performance of the season, easily, so I wouldn't look for them to come close to duplicating it. As for Detroit, they are averaging a healthy 26.8 PPG at home and QB Stafford showed little to no effect from his injured hand LW when he threw for nearly 400 yards. Four receivers had at least 64 yards. The Bears have lost the last six times they've been in a revenge situation, going just 1-4-1 ATS. 8* Detroit |
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12-10-17 | Ravens +6 v. Steelers | Top | 38-39 | Win | 100 | 129 h 54 m | Show |
8* Baltimore (8:30 ET): Given that the Steelers were going to be on a short week, I thought this line opened way too high, so the fact that it's come down a couple point during the week is not surprising on this end. Even post-move, there's still a ton of value on the Ravens, who have the better point differential of the two teams. Plus, Pittsburgh played a very physical game Monday night at Cincinnati, losing LB Ryan Shazier (best wishes to him!) in the process. Now they've got to deal w/ another physical AFC North rival, one that is much better than the Bengals team they barely beat six days ago (last second field goal). Baltimore's defense has allowed the second fewest number of points in the AFC, trailing only Jacksonville. Take the points. This is also a legit revenge spot for the Ravens, who were humbled up in Pittsburgh back in Week 4. That 26-9 defeat is simply not indicative of where these teams are at currently, however, as the first meeting was a horrific situation from Baltimore's perspective. They were just one week removed from an awful showing in London where they were drubbed by Jacksonville 44-7. Having no bye week after a London game is rare and it definitely affected the Ravens adversely. Since that loss, Baltimore has gone 5-3 SU w/ two of the losses coming by only a field goal. Last week's 44-20 blowout of Detroit was their third consecutive victory and while that game didn't get "out of hand" until late, it was still an impressive win nevertheless. With three forced turnovers against the Lions, Baltimore is now +14 in TO margin this year and that's #1 in the entire league. If Week 4 could be termed a "horrific situation" for Baltimore, the proverbial "shoe" is now "on the other foot" here. Pittsburgh not only is w/o its top linebacker (Shazier), but emerging WR JuJu Smith-Schuster is also suspended for his (dirty hit) on Bengals LB Vontaze Burfict (oh the irony there!) Monday night. Yes, the Ravens have lost their top CB (Jimmy Smith) for the rest of the regular season. But what I'm more focused on here is the run defense, which is unlikely to allow anything close to the neighborhood of the 144 yds gained by Le'Veon Bell in that 1st meeting. Over the L5 weeks, the Ravens have allowed an average of just 67 rushing yards per game. 8* Baltimore |
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12-10-17 | Seahawks +3 v. Jaguars | Top | 24-30 | Loss | -115 | 125 h 59 m | Show |
8* Seattle (4:25 ET): It appears as if rumors of the Seahawks' demise were greatly exaggerated. They shot back into the thick of the NFC Playoff race last week w/ a very impressive Sunday night victory over the Eagles, 24-10, a game in which they were in the rare role of home dog. I believe that there's a case to be made that Russell Wilson, and not Carson Wentz, is the true league MVP this year. With the once-vaunted Legion of Boom (secondary) ailing, Wilson is carrying the offense and the team. This week presents a new challenge, in the form of a cross-country visit to face ascedent Jacksonville, but it's one that I feel the Seahawks will be up for. I again point to this team's track record as an underdog, which is now 6-5 ATS L11 w/ five outright victories. In many ways, the Jaguars are building their team in the same fashion Seattle did. The Jags' strength is clearly the defensive side of the ball as they've given up the fewest number of points in all of football. In fact, they've allowed 25 fewer points on the season than every other team! Turnovers have played a big role in this year's improvement as well as they are #2 in the league in TO margin at +12. They also have a front seven that should - on paper - dominate the suspect Seattle offensive line. But I come back to the most significant edge the Seahawks have in this matchup - and it the QB position w/ Wilson over Blake Bortles. Seattle's defense remains very good, mind you. Don't expect Jacksonville to score a ton of points Sunday. The last three weeks, Jacksonville has faced Cleveland, Arizona and Indianapolis. Those are three of the worst teams in the league. The offense gained fewer than 300 total yds against both the Browns and Cardinals. Against the former, they were very fortunate to cover and they lost to the latter. Last week, they did beat up on a direction-less Colts team. But the Jags have injuries on the defensive side of the ball now too, namely DB Jalen Ramsey and LB Telvin Smith. Those would be huge absences, if one or neither played. RB Leonard Fournette has also been in and out of the lineup recently w/ ankle issues. Again, Seattle just beat the supposed "best team in the league" last week and did so handily, by two touchdowns. The last time Jacksonville beat a team that currently has a winning record was a Week 5 win over Pittsburgh where the defense scored two touchdowns. 8* Seattle |
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12-10-17 | 49ers v. Texans -2.5 | Top | 26-16 | Loss | -125 | 122 h 34 m | Show |
10* Houston (1:00 ET): As down as I was on the Texans coming into the year, and especially in the wake of the DeShaun Watson injury, you may find it a bit "odd" that I'd be so strongly behind them here. But so much of this play is about the opponent and my desire to play against them. The 49ers are off a win, just their 2nd of the year, 15-14 over the Bears last week. The notion of that team winning B2B games, on the road no less and in an early start time, seems far fetched. Now give credit to San Fran for last week as they absolutely deserved to win the game (outgained Chicago 388-147 w/ 23-8 first down edge), but they last won B2B games back in 2014. Since that time, any time they have been off a win, the next game has resulted in a double-digit loss (w/ one exception). Since Watson was lost for the year, Houston is just 1-4 SU/2-3 ATS. They return home this week following B2B road loss to Baltimore and Tennessee, two potential playoff teams. This week's opponent will be the Texans' weakest since a win over Cleveland. While 1-5 SU on the road, Houston is 3-3 SU at home and outscoring teams by 5.5 points per game. They actually outgained Tennessee last week, 384-344, and it was a misleading final (24-13) due to the Titans scoring a very late TD. Much maligned QB Tom Savage even threw for 365 yards, completing 31 of 49 passes. The Texans' point differential being only -13 indicates to me they've played better than their record. As a favorite, the Texans are 14-3 SU/11-5-1 ATS the L3 seasons including a perfect 4 for 4 straight up when laying three or less at home. As for the 49ers, they are 2-10 SU and already thinking about next year. But there's some optimism here due to Jimmy Garoppolo now being the QB. They did win his starting debut, but only 15-14, and didn't score a single touchdown. In their last 22 road games. the Niners have just three wins. So again, B2B wins seems highly unlikely. In five of the last six games, they have not topped 15 points! In 8 of 12 games this year, they have not topped 15 points! Sure, the majority of those were w/o Garoppolo, but last week was. This is a team being outscored by more than a full TD per game on the year. My own power rankings have this spread above a touchdown. 10* Houston |
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12-07-17 | Saints v. Falcons +2 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 57 h 60 m | Show |
10* Atlanta (8:25 ET): The events of last week (Saints win, Falcons lose) have conspired to make this line "jump the fence" w/ New Orleans now favored on the road. It will be interesting to see where it eventually settles (I'm writing this Weds morning), but regardless, I'm on the Falcons at what I feel is going to be a tremendous price. It doesn't happen all that often (more than you think though!), but the defending NFC Champs have been lethal as home dogs the past few seasons. They are 7-1 ATS in the role dating back to the 2013 season w/ five outright wins. That includes a SU win LY over Carolina (48-33). Bottom line is I don't see Atlanta dropping B2B home games, not w/ the stakes involved. From here on out, it's all division games for the Falcons and they'll probably need to win AT LEAST three of them to get back into the playoffs. In two weeks, they'll be at New Orleans, then close then season here at home vs. Carolina, a game which could very well determine the final playoff entrant in the NFC. Last week's loss to Minnesota snapped a three-game win streak which had seen the offense average almost 32 PPG. They were held to only three field goals by the vaunted Vikings defense while going a paltry 1 for 10 on third downs, largely due to facing a lot of unfavorable situations. New Orleans' defense transformation (much improved!) has been the subject of a lot of chatter this year, but their unit is not as strong as Minnesota's, regardless if CB Marcus Lattimore returns here or not. At the same time, Atlanta's top CB (Desmond Trufant) is expected back from a concussion. Then again, defense was certainly not the issue LW vs. the Vikings as they allowed only two touchdowns. Stopping the Saints' vaunted run game (Mark Ingram & Alvin Kamara) will be a challenge, but here at home, the Falcons have been pretty stingy as they give up only 17.8 PPG. In fact, for as much talk as there's been about the Saints defense, Atlanta's is basically allowing the same number of points per game. Homefield advantage on a Thursday night matters, at least when we're dealing with two competitive teams and I see the Falcons winning one that they "need to have." 10* Atlanta |
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12-03-17 | Eagles v. Seahawks +6 | Top | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 124 h 38 m | Show |
8* Seattle (8:25 ET): This line hit its high point mid-week and I immediately jumped on it as even in a "down year," Russell Wilson and the Seahawks are still a force to be reckoned with at home. This is a VERY rare instance of them getting points here and Wilson is 3-0 ATS all-time as a home dog, winning all three times straight up! Overall, Wilson is 14-7-1 ATS as a dog of any kind in his pro career. Furthermore, the Seahawks have been leading or within one possession of the lead in all but TWO of their previous 115 regular season contests! Think there's value now? I realize that the Eagles are "flying high" (pardon the pun) this year and everyone wants to bet them, but the market has now shifted too far with them. Take the points and I give Seattle a great shot at the outright upset. Philadelphia absolutely annihilated the Chicago Bears last week, winning 31-3 w/ a massive 420-140 edge in total yards (24-8 in first downs). That win puts them in rarified company as one of only NINE teams (Since 1989!) to post four consecutive victories by 20 points or more. The previous eight teams, not surprisingly, did NOT fare well their next time out, posting an ATS record of just 2-6. This makes sense as oddsmakers will begin to attach a much higher price on a team after they consistently cover. The Eagles have now covered EIGHT consecutive games, but those four straight 20+ pt wins came against the 49ers, Broncos, Cowboys (no Elliott) and Bears. None of those are likely playoff teams and three of them are going to be picking very high in next year's Draft. Truth be told, the Eagles have played a VERY easy schedule to this point. The only team they beat that I'd consider a "lock" for the playoffs was Carolina and that was a five-point game. Seattle's four losses this year have been by a COMBINED 20 points. Shockingly, they have lost their last two home games. One was to Washington, but they actually held a commanding 437-244 edge in total yards in that game. Then there was the Monday nighter vs. Atlanta, their first game w/o Richard Sherman. (They also finished w/ the edge in total yds in that one!). Despite being 3-2 SU at home, the Seahawks are outgaining opponents by nearly 100 YPG here. Wilson is actually having just as good a year as Wentz (check the stats). Plus, under Pete Carroll, the team is 13-2 SU in home night games. You won't get a better price on the Seahawks at home as long as the current regime remains. Take the points. 8* Seattle |
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12-03-17 | Panthers v. Saints -4 | Top | 21-31 | Win | 100 | 120 h 34 m | Show |
10* New Orleans (4:25 ET): The NFC South has emerged as the strongest division in the sport this year w/ three teams currently 7-4 SU or better (Tampa Bay the exception). The two teams meeting here are tied at 8-3 w/ the Saints holding the tiebreak due to an outright win in Carolina back in Week 3, 34-13, as five-point underdogs. That win totally transformed the Saints' season. Going into the game, they were 0-2, having been outscored 65-39 and giving up over 500 YPG. But something happened after upsetting the Panthers and it was on the defensive side of the ball. New Orleans would go on to win eight straight games, allowing 17 pts or less six times during that stretch. They did lose last week, 26-20 at Los Angeles, but IMO that's created some value here on them at home. Lay the points! With New Orleans losing last week, Carolina is now the hottest team in the division as they're on a four-game win streak. However, three of those wins did come at the expense of Tampa Bay, Miami and the Jets, three teams that aren't going anywhere. I did have the Panthers LW vs. the Jets, but it was a fortunate cover due to a late FG and they were outgained 391-299. They also actually trailed early in the 4Q. While Carolina does have the slight edge defensively in this matchup, their offense averages about a full TD less per game compared to New Orleans. The Week 3 loss was one of five times this year that the Panthers' O failed to top 20 points. Both teams come into this game a little banged up. New Orleans, on the defensive side of the ball, is really hurting - especially in the secondary. But CB Marcus Lattimore has not been ruled out for this game. However, perhaps the biggest absence for this matchup is now on the Carolina defense as DE Charles Johnson was suspended on Friday (4 games) for violating the league's substance abuse policy. The Panthers allow roughly 1.6 more rush yards per attempt w/ Johnson off the field, which is significant. As a reminder, they are getting ready to face Drew Brees in the Mercedes Benz Superdome. This year's Saints' offense can also run the ball a lot more effectively than past seasons, thanks to rookie Alvin Kamara. The Panthers offense is likely going to be w/o TE Greg Olsen and possibly RB Christian McCaffery. Though Carolina has been good as a dog this year, I think it's notable that New Orleans has won all seven games in which it has been a favorite, covering six times. This is a pretty short price on them at home. 10* New Orleans |
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12-03-17 | Broncos v. Dolphins +1 | Top | 9-35 | Win | 100 | 116 h 9 m | Show |
8* Miami (1:00 ET): This is a battle of two teams that are sinking fast while being disasters at the betting window. Denver's 3-1 start is a distant memory as they had an early season bye and have since lost seven in a row, not covering a single time in the process. In fact, and this is downright shocking, they have been "in the money" (i.e. covering) for roughly only 6% of actual game time! Miami, whose fall from grace was fairly easy to predict, has taken a similar path. They were 4-2 SU at one point, but it was a fraudulent record to say the least, and they've now dropped five straight. Four of those losses have been by double digits. So something will have to give here and w/ QB Jay Cutler cleared, I believe it's the Dolphins in better position to take this relatively "meaningless" Week 13 matchup. Denver does not have a viable starting QB on its roster. They've tried three different options - Trevor Siemian, Brock Osweiler and Paxton Lynch - and none of them have had any real success. After cycling through, it's back to Siemian this week. Siemian will have to get used to a new offensive coordinator here (Bill Musgrave) as when he started earlier in the season Mike McCoy (since fired) was the one calling plays. Compounding matters is the fact that Siemian is one of several Broncos that has contracted the flu this week. Broncos backers will continue to lean on the fact this team has outgained its opponents this season, but the defense is not what it was the L2 years and the offense just can't score points. Only once in the last seven games has Denver topped 20 points and it was in a 51-23 loss to the Eagles. They average 14.4 PPG on the road. Miami has an even worse offense, but at least their scoring average jumps to 22.4 PPG at home and they have Cutler w/ a better array of weapons. Cutler is facing a former team here, so he should be motivated. For what it's worth, the Dolphins are a respectable 4-5 SU when Cutler starts. Getting back to Denver's defensive decline, they now rank 28th in the league in points allowed. They are also now w/o their top defensive back, Aqib Talib, due to a suspension (for fighting Raiders' WR Michael Crabtree). I just can't see why this line has "flipped" during the week (Denver now favored) as the Broncos are 0-5 SU/ATS this season on the road. 8* Miami |
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12-03-17 | Chiefs -3 v. Jets | Top | 31-38 | Loss | -120 | 116 h 9 m | Show |
8* Kansas City (1:00 ET): Not sure Chiefs' stock could be any lower than it is right now following B2B outright losses as big favorites, to the Giants and Bills. Well, it would sink lower if the team falls victim to the "New York trifecta" this week and loses outright to the Jets. Shockingly, money is in on the J-E-T-S even as short home dogs here. I understand why as KC appears to be falling apart at the seams. What was once an insurmountable lead in the AFC West (team started 5-0) has now been trimmed to just one game as they've lost five of six overall. But these are the Jets they're playing, a team I successfully targeted last week w/ the Panthers and walked away w/ the cover. With all their recent struggles, KC is laying a shorter number and I think there's value here. Facing a Bills team that had given up a total of 135 pts the previous three weeks, KC was shockingly out-first downed 13-1 in the 1H last week. This Chiefs' offense has been a disaster the L3 weeks, scoring just 36 points total and the cries for Patrick Mahomes to replace Alex Smituh have grown louder. It is stunning to look back at how Smith was being considered an MVP contender back when the team was 5-0 w/ wins over the Patriots and Eagles. I reiterate that this is an extreme "buy low" situation. The Chiefs are 8-2 ATS the L3 seasons as a road favorite of three points or less. Also, teams off an outright loss as DD favorites have come back to cover at roughly a 66% clip the following week since '05. Yes, I know the Chiefs were in this exact same spot LW (coming off the loss to the Giants), but can lightning really strike twice? I look for KC to run the ball effectively here against a Jets' run defense that is nowhere near what it once was. Last week, the Jets allowed 145 yds rushing to Carolina. I'd like to see the Chiefs recommit to the run game after attempting just 19 rushes in two of the last three games. The Jets' offense remains inept as long as Josh McCown is the QB. Note that while KC is +31 in 4th quarter point differential, the Jets are -73. Even w/ the offensive slump, the Cheifs are still 7th in the league in scoring. The Jets are 20th. By the way, the Jets have also lost five of their last six games including losses to Miami and Tampa Bay. Unlike KC, they have no 5-0 start to lean on. 8* Kansas City |
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11-26-17 | Packers +14 v. Steelers | Top | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 55 h 35 m | Show |
8* Green Bay (8:30 ET): These two proud franchises (combined for 10 Super Bowls) seem to be trending in very different directions right now. Pittsburgh, ten days removed from trouncing Tennessee 40-17, has won five in a row and should probably be considered the top team in the AFC right now. Green Bay's season went down the drain when Aaron Rodgers broke his collarbone and they're just 5-5 SU following an ugly, shutout loss at the hands of Pittsburgh's rival (Baltimore) last week (23-0). As a result, we now have a pointspread that would have deemed unfathomable at the start of the season for this Sunday night matchup. I'll take the points, noting the Packers covered for me as dogs two weeks ago, winning outright in Chicago. Since Rodgers went down, the Pack are just 1-4 SU w/ the lone victory coming against the Bears. They've failed to cover the spread in all four losses, but the marketplace has also been slow to react to just how signifcant the dropoff from Rodgers to Brett Hundley is. However, that being said, last week marked the first time under Hundley that GB lost a game by more than 13 points. It's not as if they've been losing to bad teams either as all four defeats came against teams w/ winning records, two of them being division leaders. While they were shutout, the problem last week vs. the Ravens was five turnovers. They actually outgained Baltimore 265-219. Obviously, it's tied to the QB situation, but this is an unprecedented pointspread for the Packers under HC Mike McCarthy. Before the win over the Titans last Thursday, Pittsburgh had not topped 30 points in any game this year! It also should be noted that they were the beneficiaries of a +4 TO margin vs. Tennessee and total yardage was almost identical (only +33). I did call for their highest scoring effort of the season vs. Tennessee (had the Over), but the bottom line is when you're averaging only 22.7 PPG, it's difficult to cover a spread as large as this one. Over the L3 games. the Packers defense has allowed just 64, 55 and 58 yards rushing. Anything similar would almost certainly keep them in this game until the very end. 8* Green Bay |
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11-26-17 | Saints +2.5 v. Rams | Top | 20-26 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 40 m | Show |
8* New Orleans (4:25 ET): I believe the better team is getting points here and I say that as someone who has tremendous respect for the Rams, even labeling them as a top five team. But the Saints are on a different level right now w/ eight consecutive wins after an 0-2 SU start. Something you may have heard before is that New Orleans is just the third team in league history to have a win streak of six or more games following an 0-2 start to the season. The other two both won the Super Bowl. Now, I definitely remember playing against these Saints last week as they never were "in the money" as TD chalk against Washington. In fact, they needed a miracle rally in the final minutes of the 4Q just to force overtime, where they won 34-31. But they're not favored this week and that's key. The Rams had a win streak of their own (four games) snapped LW w/ a humbling 24-7 defeat at the hands of the Minnesota Vikings. After scoring a TD on the opening drive, the Rams never scored again. In fact, they were held to just 179 total yards the rest of the way. This is an offense that came in as the highest scoring in the entire league, mind you, something that has come as a shock considering how poor they (specifically QB Jared Goff) looked a year ago. But that was under Jeff Fisher. Sean McVay has engineered a remarkable turnaround here. But the Rams offense isn't the only unit that's pulled off a remarkable turnaround in 2017. The Saints defense, long the albatross holding QB Drew Brees and the offense back, has improved exponentially this season. They've pulled it off through a variety of off-season acquisitions, both via the draft and free agency. Incredibly, before the comeback last week vs. Washington, New Orleans had allowed 17 pts or fewer in six of its last seven games! Now there are some significant injuries for the Saints on the defensive side of the ball, the main one being DE Alex Okafor tearing his ACL and being done for the season. But let us not forget about Brees and that offense, which gained 535 total yards last week! They're averaging 474.7 YPG the L3 weeks. They also now have a running game to lean on w/ the "two-headed monster" of Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram. Note the Rams' defense is only 20th against the run and hasn't exactly faced the toughest slate of rushing attacks. While the Saints defense has lost Okafor, the Rams offense is w/o WR Robert Woods, a key loss. Key is that this will be the first time since Week 3 that New Orleans is an underdog. Good value as they are 14-6 ATS in that role the L3 seasons w/ nine outright victories. The Rams are just 1-4 SU/ATS the L5 times they have been listed as home chalk of three points or less, including 0-2 this season. 8* New Orleans |
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11-26-17 | Bills v. Chiefs -9.5 | Top | 16-10 | Loss | -105 | 47 h 15 m | Show |
10* Kansas City (1:00 ET): In the upcoming offseason, I think we'll take a look back at Week 11 as the seminal moment of the Bills season. It's when HC Sean McDermott gambled and elected to bench QB Tyrod Taylor (despite overachieving) and instead start the unproven Nathan Peterman. The gamble was a disaster as the Bills lost 54-24 to the Chargers w/ Peterman throwing FIVE interceptions on just 14 attempts. By the end of the game, Taylor was back in, but you have to wonder about his relationship w/ the head coach and organization moving forward. Meanwhile, a lot of people are starting to wonder about the Chiefs. Remember when we all thought they were the best team in the league? Well, after that 5-0 start (including Wk 1 thumping of the Patriots), they've dropped four of five, including an embarrassing defeat LW (in OT) where they were DD favorites over the Giants. Most will view this as a big number, and it is, but it's justified as KC is in far better position to bounce back this week. With five of their final six opponents currently sporting a losing record, I think the Chiefs are in fine position to win the AFC West for a second straight year. Now, you might have thought the same going into last week's game in New York. Oddly, despite high winds, Andy Reid elected to pass the ball 60% of the time. The offense did gain 363 total yards, but was held w/o a touchdown (three field goals of 31 yds or less) and turned the ball over three times. The good news is that those problems are correctable. Normally, the Chiefs are winning the turnover battle. I expect them to here. I also expect them to increase their sack total from last week, which won't be hard b/c it was 0 against the G-Men. Buffalo could be w/o its starting left tackle, Cordy Glenn, again. This is also the right defense to be facing right now as the Bills have allowed 135 pts the L3 games, which is the fourth most over any three-game span in the league since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger! Truth be told, when Buffalo was winning (started 5-2!), they were doing it w/ "smoke and mirrors." They have been outgained in every game since Week 1 and rank 27th in yards per game since Week 9 and 29th in yards allowed. They've been outgained by nearly 115 YPG during that stretch and are -65.0 YPG for the season. This is a below average football team, playing on the road w/ a shaky QB situation. Not good. While the Bills have lost three in a row by double digits, only one of the Chiefs' four losses have been by more than six points. They're at home, off an embarrassing defeat and just a better all-around team compared to Buffalo. 10* Kansas City |
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11-26-17 | Panthers -5 v. Jets | Top | 35-27 | Win | 100 | 47 h 15 m | Show |
8* Carolina (1:00 ET): From a power rankings perspective, this may not look like a slam dunk, but I'll side w/ what is the far better team, laying a short number. Both the Panthers and Jets are off byes. But that's basically where the similarities end. Carolina is 7-3 SU and in prime position to get back to the playoffs, even in a crowded in NFC South. The Jets are 4-6 SU, a record which has surprised many as they were pegged to be the worst team in the entire league coming into the season. Where I see the mismatch here is Carolina's defense (holding opponents to 77 YPG below their season averages) against a Jets offense that doesn't top 20 pts very often. The Panthers have a number of ugly wins already in 2017 and this will be yet another. They'll cover the spread though. This Carolina defense has been really impressive so far as they are #2 in the league in yards allowed (trailing JAX by less than 3 YPG for top spot) and also top five in points allowed (18.0 per game). They shouldn't find it too difficult stopping a Jets' offense being quarterbacked by journeyman Josh McCown. In the game before the bye, the Jets had only three points before scoring a late TD against the Bucs (lost 15-10) and for the third time in four games didn't even gain 300 total yards. This matchup (Carolina D vs. Jets O) is every bit the mismatch that it appears to be on paper and we're in very good shape on this half of the ledger. The Jets are 24th in the league in YPG differential. The Carolina offense is also now getting going w/ an avg of 439 YPG the last three weeks. They scored 45 pts in a near 600-yard effort vs. Miami in the last game. Now Cam Newton gets his favorite target (TE Greg Olson) back and the Jets happen to struggle at defending the tight end position, having allowed at least 67 yds to opposing TE's in 6 of 10 games thus far. Furthermore, the running game has gone over 200 yds in B2B games (Newton had 95 vs. Miami). The Jets are only 23rd in the league against the run, a shell of the unit they were when they had Sheldon Richardson clogging up the middle. This is an ideal matchup for the road favorite, who is 60-24 SU vs. teams w/ a losing record in the 2H of the season (55-28 ATS) including eight consecutive victories. 8* Carolina |
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11-23-17 | Chargers v. Cowboys +1 | Top | 28-6 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 58 m | Show |
8* Dallas (4:25 ET): We've certainly seen a significant market shift on the Cowboys as over the L2 weeks they've been blown out by both the Falcons and Eagles. While so much attention is being paid to the absence of RB Ezekiel Elliott, it is actually the absences of LT Tyron Smith and LB Sean Lee that are really killing the team. In the case of the latter, the defense is allowing 2.3 yards more per rush w/ him off the field and has forced eight fewer turnovers. Sadly, he'll again be out here w/ this being a short week. Smith is listed as questionable currently. So why take a chance on America's Team on Turkey Day? Well, for starters, this line opened at -4. So there's some definite value here. Also, the Chargers aren't the Falcons or Eagles. I'll go w/ the value play here. All of a sudden, based on one win and the lack of depth in the AFC, the Chargers are being discussed as a potential playoff team (despite a 4-6 SU record). Look; no one has driven the Bolts' bandwagon harder in the last couple seasons. But I'm sick of getting burned. If you think now is a curious time NOT to be on them, then consider LW's 54-24 win was a byproduct of what turned out to be the most egregious NFL coaching decision in recent memory, that being Buffalo HC Sean McDermott electing to start Nathan Peterman, who turned in simply the worst performance by an NFL QB that I've seen in some time. As bad as Dallas has looked the L2 weeks, QB Dak Prescott is NOT going to throw 5 INT's in 15 attempts in one half of play. No way. Look for this game to be decided in the trenches. If Smith could play, it would be a HUGE boost for the Cowboys and their running game. Los Angeles ranks dead last in the league, giving up a ghastly 139 YPG on 4.9 yards per carry. Dallas is more than capable of running the ball w/o Elliott. On defense, the 'Boys should benefit from what remains a very predictable Chargers' offense that runs far too often in obvious situations. Prior to last week, LA had topped 21 pts in a game only twice. It's a pretty big leap to have this team now favored on the road. Almost without fail, their games end up being close (seven decided by one score). This will only be the fourth time they have been favored this season and the first on the road. As a favorite of any kind, the Chargers are just 5-10 ATS the L3 seasons, losing nine of those games outright. 8* Dallas |
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11-23-17 | Vikings -3 v. Lions | Top | 30-23 | Win | 100 | 49 h 58 m | Show |
10* Minnesota (12:35 ET): The injury to Aaron Rodgers all but ended Green Bay's chances of winning the NFC North this year, thereby leaving a huge void that one of the other three teams had to fill. Enter the Minnesota Vikings, who have overcome their own injuries to go 8-2 SU and take a commanding lead in the division. They last lost in Week 4 (more on that in a moment) and since then, it's been six consecutive wins and covers, the latest being a very impressive 24-7 victory over the similarly surprising Rams. But the Purple People Eaters are by no means a "lock" to win the NFC North as we approach Thanksgiving. That's because the last team to beat them, Detroit, is "hot on their heels." Currently two games back, the Lions could deal a huge blow to the Vikings by sweeping the season series for a second consecutive year. They beat them LY on Thanksgiving as well, making this all the more a revenge spot for Minnesota. I'll lay the short number. I readily admit that Detroit is a team that I expected to regress in 2017. That's because last year's 9-7 SU record did not include a single victory over a fellow playoff team and also required a NFL single-season record EIGHT fourth quarter comebacks! Speaking of single-season records, last year's Lions defense happened to allow the highest completion percentage in a season in league history! The team hasn't had quite the good fortune in close games this season, but did pull one out last week, 27-24 over the Chicago Bears. That game saw the Lions get outgained (398-352) and rally back from an early 10-0 deficit. The always reliable Matt Prater kicked a 52-yard FG w/ 1:35 remaining for the win, though the team had to survive a missed FG attempt by Chicago as time expired. While three straight wins sounds impressive, note the QB's that the Lions have beaten are: Brett Hundley, DeShone Kizer and Mitchell Trubisky, two rookies and a first-year starter. Minnesota's season was thought to be toast when they had to turn to veteran journeyman Case Keenum, especially when RB Dalvin Cook was also lost for the year. But Keenum is having himself a career year. He's completed 68.2% of his passes over the L3 weeks. The defense also deserves a ton of credit, especially for the job it did against the Rams last week, holding them to only 254 yards, which is well below what they had been averaging. For the year, this Vikings' D ranks 5th in yards and 4th in points allowed. Despite losing to Detroit three straight times, Mike Zimmer's defense has allowed just four touchdowns in those games. That Week 4 meeting, a 14-7 loss, is when Cook was lost for the year and it was just Keenum's third start. Minnesota had the slight edge in total yards, but was -3 in turnovers. Zimmer is an incredible 30-13 ATS since taking over as the HC here and I look for his team to end the Lions' four-year win streak on Thanksgiving. 10* Minnesota |
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11-20-17 | Falcons v. Seahawks -3 | Top | 34-31 | Loss | -100 | 152 h 9 m | Show |
10* Seattle (8:40 ET): They are "dropping like flies" in the Seahawks secondary right now (no Sherman or Chancellor), but at home I believe that Russell Wilson and company can carry this team to victory. It's a virtually unprecedented price range here on Seattle in their own stadium as it will be the FIRST time since 2012 that we can catch them laying less than two points here. I can only assume that has to do with this injuries in the secondary, but free safety Earl Thomas is still present and he's always been the most important piece there anyway. After suffering a misleading loss two weeks ago to the Redskins (w/o Thomas), Seattle bounced back w/ a win last Thursday against division rival Arizona. The extra time to prepare here is huge and Atlanta is most certainly NOT what they were last season. This is a really big game in the NFC Playoff Picture where it's looking like 10 wins may be a requirement for the postseason. Seattle is only one-half game back of the Rams (who lost yday) in the NFC West and they currently own the tiebreak due to a head to head win back in Week 5. The Falcons' situation is a bit more precarious. They have two teams ahead of them in the NFC South currently and even a win tonight would not change that. But what it would do is tie them w/ Seattle for the final Wild Card and obviously give them a much needed tiebreak. Atlanta got a big win LW when they whipped another injury-riddled team, Dallas, 27-7 at home. Of course, the Cowboys were w/o Ezekiel Elliott and Tyron Smith. The task will be much tougher here, not only b/c it's on the road, but they'll also have to contend w/ Wilson. If it were last season, I'd be far more concerned about the injuries in the Seattle secondary facing this Falcons offense. But it's not last season and Matt Ryan and company clearly miss the playcalling of Kyle Shanahan. It just hasn't been the same offensively for LY's NFC Champs and note that they will also be down a key piece, that being RB Donta Freeman. I can't see the Falcons running the ball for much yardage tonight against what is an outstanding Seattle defensive front. But I think that the key will be Wilson, who is having a MVP-type season as only Tom Brady has thrown for more yards. The home field edge is also very big, especially in a night game and I look for the "12th man" to help the Seahawks pull out an important victory. 10* Seattle |
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11-19-17 | Eagles v. Cowboys +3.5 | Top | 37-9 | Loss | -110 | 128 h 59 m | Show |
8* Dallas (8:30 ET): The Cowboys' first game w/o Ezekiel Elliott went pretty much as poorly as possible, but as most intelligent observers were quick to note, that had as much to do w/ the team being w/ OL Tyron Smith and not just their star running back. It ended up being a 27-7 loss to a desperate Atlanta team on the road and now Dallas is on the "outside looking in" for what is shaping up to be a very tough NFC playoff picture. This week's opponent, the Philadelphia Eagles, is the envy of every team right now as they have the best record in the league (8-1 SU) coming out of their bye. They haven't loss since Week 2 (Chiefs) and have covered six in a row, making them the dreaded "public side" in primetime here. I sided with a similar "square bet" last Sunday night (New England), but not here as the Cowboys at least have a good QB, something you could NOT say LW for the Broncos. Take the points. Dallas is entering a critical stretch here, one that could largely determine the fate of their season and they'll be w/o Elliott for five more games. The next three, while all at home, come in a 12-day span as the next two weeks they'll be playing on a Thursday (Thanksgiving included obviously). There's a chance they could still be favored the next two weeks. But the value is on taking them this week, off the blowout loss, against the high-flying Eagles. Perhaps the Cowboys' stock will not be lower at any point the rest of this season than it is right now. HC Jason Garrett has done some of his finest work as a home dog of 3.5 to 7 pts, going 9-4 ATS in that role w/ five outright wins. Like I said, Philly is "flying high" right now, but perhaps they come out a little "rusty" after the bye week? They did hang an impressive 51 points on Denver's defense in their last game, but Wentz completed only 15 pass attempts in that game. Granted, four were for touchdowns, but it still seems highly unlikely that he'll match that kind of efficiency at any other point this season. Looking at the Eagles' schedule thus far, it's hardly been a gauntlet. They did play (and lose to) the Chiefs, but other than them and possibly (probably?) Carolina, I don't see many potential playoff teams on that list. Dallas, of course, might not find itself in the playoffs thanks to the Elliott suspension. But I don't think they deserve to be this decided of a home dog in this critical NFC East matchup. Philadelphia has actually not been a road favorite of more than a field goal in over three seasons. They actually closed as a dog at LA (Chargers) earlier in the year when they won by only two points. 8* Dallas |
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11-19-17 | Bills +4.5 v. Chargers | Top | 24-54 | Loss | -110 | 124 h 44 m | Show |
8* Buffalo (4:05 ET): Finally, it appears as if we know who the starting QB's will be in this Week 11 matchup - for both teams. Buffalo HC Sean McDermott has elected to make the somewhat "controversial" decision to bench Tyrod Taylor in favor of the unproven Nathan Peterman. What makes the move a "controversial" one is that the Bills - in most people's eyes - have overachieved at 5-4 SU. But the bottom line is they were 5-2 before ugly losses to the Jets and Saints and those precipitated the change. Something my regulars will note is that I've actually been a buyer on the Bills from the start, in spite of all the moves that make it seem they're not trying to be successful in 2017. I'm holding a ticket on them Over 6.5 wins and would not have expected that could be a winner so soon on the season (still need two). I will again "go against the grain" with them here. The Chargers also are dealing with their own QB situation this week. Philip Rivers found himself in the concussion protocol this week and is currently listed as questionable. HC Anthony Lynn stated on Friday that Rivers "looked fine," but he remains uncleared as of press time. Whether or not Rivers plays here will be irrelevant to the selection. The bottom line is that I would not want to lay points w/ the Lightning Bolts right now. If Rivers isn't able to play, it would be a significant downgrade to Kellen Clemens. I've tried and tried to keep believing in this LA team, but at 3-6 SU, they are nearing the point of irrelevancy. Last week marked the latest in the long line of inept losses as they fell to Jacksonville 20-17 (in overtime) despite intercepting Jags' QB Blake Bortles TWICE in the final three minutes of regulation! (You can't make this stuff). Another point I need to make is that the Chargers have the worst homefield "advantage" in the league. They are just 1-3 SU/ATS in their temporary (30,000 capacity) stadium. This selection also boils down to the fact that you can't trust the Chargers laying points. They're just 4-10 ATS in that role the L3 seasons w/ NINE outright losses! This year, they've lost outright both times they've been installed as the chalk - to Miami and to Philadelphia (how bad does that line look in retrospect?). Considering almost all of their games end up being close, why would you want to back them as favorites. Six of their nine games this season have been decided by five points or less, four of those losses. Over the L3 seasons, they are 6-21 SU in games decided by a TD or less. With Peterman under center, look for the Bills to run the ball a lot here, which is an effective strategy considering the Chargers own the league's second worst run defense. Rivers or not, don't look for the Bills' defense to be tested much in this game. Los Angeles comes in averaging just 18.6 points per game and has not topped 21 in the last month. Again, not a team I'd want to lay points with right now. I'll put my trust in McDermott in this spot. 8* Buffalo |
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11-19-17 | Redskins +9 v. Saints | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 121 h 42 m | Show |
10* Washington (1:00 ET): Right now, every NFC division is being led by a "surprise" team, whose bandwagons are filling up rapidly. None more so than the Saints, who have won and covered seven straight games (after an 0-2 start), including a 47-10 massacre of the Bills up in Buffalo last week. A team that has leaned almost exclusively on QB Drew Brees and the passing game for a decade has undergone a somewhat radical transformation in 2017. There's now both a running game and some defense being played in the Big Easy and those are the primary reasons New Orleans is leading the NFC South right now. But before we go praising them too much, let's be sure to note the slate of opposing offenses they've faced during this run of theirs has hardly been comprised of world-beaters. Therefore, I see some value here on Washington, who has a solid offense. Take the points. During this seven-game run, the Saints have beaten Cam Newton and Carolina (34-13) as well as Matt Stafford and Detroit (52-38). But here are the other five QB's they've gotten to face: Jay Cutler (MIA = worst offense in NFL), Brett Hundley (1st career start), Mitchell Trubisky (rookie), Ryan Fitzpatrick (backup for inj Jameis Winston) and Tyrod Taylor (now benched). Say what you will about Redskins' QB Kirk Cousins, but he's no worse than the third best QB the Saints will have seen over the last two months. Looking at Washington's recent schedule, they've had to face Philadelphia, Dallas (w/ Ezekiel Elliott), Seattle and Minnesota. Therefore, I'm not really surprised that they come into this game only having won one of their last four games. Not many teams would go .500 against that gauntlet. It also appears as if the Redskins are getting healthier. Injuries along the offensive line coincided with the strength in schedule increasing, which is a "double whammy." But that unit is now a bit healthier. Cousins and the passing game rank third in the league in attempts of 20+ yards downfield, so the Saints secondary should get a real test this week. Also, for as much as the NO defense is being lauded right now, they still only rank 27th against the run. The Saints have twice covered TD spreads, but those games were against Chicago and Tampa Bay, teams that are inferior compared to Washington. Truthfully, New Orleans' 7-2 SU record shouldn't be that surprising considering they've been favored six of the last seven games. Meanwhile, Washington has been favored only ONCE all season as they've taken on the league's most difficult schedule to this points. Saints' stock could not possibly be higher right now, so I view this as an appropriate time to fade. 10* Washington |
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11-12-17 | Patriots -7.5 v. Broncos | Top | 41-16 | Win | 101 | 54 h 56 m | Show |
8* New England (8:30 ET): Normally, I would side w/ the home underdog in this situation, but I just don't see how an inept Denver offense - that is still, sadly, being quarterbacked by Brock Osweiler - can keep pace w/ the rested Patriots on Sunday night. The Broncos went into their (early) bye week (Week 5) at 3-1 SU, but since then, the season has taken a dramatic downturn (four straight losses). Ironically, it began w/ a loss on Sunday night - as 13.5-pt favorites - to the Giants (Giants only win of season!). Then, they had to play three in a row on the road, and lost all of them. They've been outscored 124-52 during the four-game losing streak and while they'd outgained every opponent prior to last week, it's become pretty obvious the defense no longer can carry this team to anything meaningful. Lay the points. New England came into the season as the prohibitive Super Bowl favorite, but two losses in their first four games quickly tempered enthusiasm. But they've since won four in a row, admittedly all against bad teams. But, thankfully, Denver qualifies as a bad team as long as either Siemien or Osweiler is under center (I know Paxton Lynch has been banged up, but how awful must he look in practice). In two games vs. NE last year, Osweiler (w/ Houston) had a 1:4 TD:INT ratio and was outscored 61-16. The Pats came here and beat a better Denver team LY, 16-3 as a field goal favorite. The Broncos defense still ranks highly, but they struggle to defend the tight end and that's a major issue when the opponent has Rob Gronkowski. Last week, the Broncos allowed more than 300 total yds for the first time all year (419) and were gashed by the Eagles to the tune of 51 points. Therefore, off their bye week, the Pats have to be salivating. Bill Belichick has always been particularly lethal off the bye week, owning a 6-1 SU record the last seven years and failing to cover only twice. This is still the top-ranked offenses in the game (27.0 PPG) and unless Denver can somehow summon efforts from past seasons, their inept offense simply won't be able to keep pace. 8* New England |
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11-12-17 | Giants v. 49ers +3 | Top | 21-31 | Win | 100 | 50 h 51 m | Show |
10* San Francisco (4:25 ET): I am - quite frankly - shocked that the Giants are getting so much love here as they've moved from a one-point dog to a 2.5/3 pt favorite. Granted, they're playing the 0-9 49ers, but in case you haven't looked at the standings in awhile, the G-Men have only one win themselves and it was over a Denver team that hasn't won in a month. Big Blue is a complete dumpster fire right now w/ the effort level and Eli Manning's future both being called into question. HC Ben McAdoo's days may be numbered here. The performance LW at home vs. the Rams was downright horrendous as they lost 51-17. There is simply no way I would want to lay points w/ this team right now, especially on the road. I'll call for San Francisco to win for the 1st time all year. Take the points. Now Niners' starting QB CJ Beathard has been pretty awful in his own right and it's probably only a matter of time before Jimmy Garoppolo sees action. But this team has played hard for 1st year HC Kyle Shanahan, at least they were earlier in the season when they suffered five straight defeats by a field goal or less, two of those coming in overtime. Since then, it's gotten ugly, but they did have to play both Dallas and Philadelphia in the L3 weeks. The offense has managed only 10 points each of its last three games, but a Giants defense which clearly overachieved LY won't offer much resistance here. Remember - in that lone Giants' win this season, they were outgained 412-266, but benefited from a +3 turnover margin as 13.5-pt underdogs. Manning's days are numbered as the Giants QB and they should be. Injuries at the receiver position have obviously taken their toll this year, but what most fail to realize is this was a terrible offense last season as well. In 10 of their last 14 games, the Giants have not scored more than 17 points. That's atrocious. They come into this game averaging only 16.1 PPG, which barely beats out the 49ers' 15.9 PPG scoring average. Factoring in the homefield advantage here I just don't understand the line move. The Giants appear to have quit on the season and a complete teardown is needed here. The 49ers will play hard for a 1st year HC, at least until they finally get into the win column. This game here, on paper, shapes up as their most "winnable" of the entire season. As a home dog of three points or less, the 49ers are 5-2 ATS the L3 seasons and those have all been "lean years" like this one. 10* San Francisco |
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11-12-17 | Packers +6 v. Bears | Top | 23-16 | Win | 100 | 46 h 16 m | Show |
8* Green Bay (1:00 ET): The Bears are favored for the first time ALL YEAR here and for the 1st time over the Packers since 2008! The latter half of that statement would have been considered unfathomable even a month ago, but Aaron Rodgers breaking his collarbone changed the entire landscape in the NFC North. Plus, GB is working on a short week here (lost Monday night) while Chicago is off a bye. However, I can't agree with the degree to which the Monsters of the Midway are favored here. Again, they haven't been favored in a single game all year prior to this. The last time they were favored was Week 10 of last season when they lost outright to Tampa Bay. Even the Browns have been favored (once) during that time span. Not only did the Bears lose outright that last time they were favored, they are 0-5 ATS as chalk the last two seasons, losing all five of those games outright! The last time Chicago covered a game when favored was Wk 12 of 2014! Green Bay's stock probably couldn't be lower right now, so I'll grab them at an inflated price. It's been pretty ugly w/ Brett Hundley under center for the Pack. Including the game where he replaced Rodgers (at Minnesota), the team has lost all three games (0-3 ATS) and has been held to 17 pts or less every time. Last week may have been the nadir of the Mike McCarthy era as off a bye, Hundley appeared ill-prepared at home vs. Detroit. He now has a 58.4 passer rating w/ a 1-4 TD-INT ratio. But, against the odds, I expect Hundley to play better this week even though he's facing a better defense. Also, it's not like Chicago's offense has shown any capability to blow teams out. They average only 16.7 PPG despite getting plenty of touchdowns from the defense. In fact, the only time they've topped 17 pts in their L5 games was an OT win over Baltimore where they got a defensive score. Mitchell Trubisky is the future for Chicago at the QB position, but the rookie has predictably struggled despite a 3-1 ATS mark. There was the infamous win over Carolina two weeks ago where he completed only four passes and the Bears only won because of TWO defensive scores. The Bears are 4-0 ATS at home this year, but again they were a dog in all four games. The last time they were favored by six points or more was Week 1 of the 2014 season and - you guessed it - they lost outright! This promises to be an ugly, low-scoring game where points are at a premium, thus taking the points is naturally the way to go. The Bears are not accustomed to being EXPECTED to beat Green Bay and should "struggle" in the unfamiliar role. 8* Green Bay |
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11-09-17 | Seahawks -5.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 22-16 | Win | 100 | 31 h 41 m | Show |
8* Seattle (8:25 ET): The Seahawks took a brutal loss last week, falling to the Redskins (17-14) despite a rather sizable edge in total yardage (437-244). It appeared as if they were going to prevail when QB Russell Wilson led one of his patented late game rallies and a TD pass to Doug Baldwin put them up 14-10 w/ only 1:34 to go. But the usually stout defense wilted and conceded a 70-yard TD drive in just 35 seconds to lose the game. Blair Walsh going 0 for 3 on FG attempts hardly helped matters. So now, no longer even in first place in the NFC West, Seattle must travel to Arizona on a short week, laying points, and they're likely w/o Earl Thomas. Still though, I see enough firepower to get by a Cardinals team that is not as good as its record. Arizona is somehow 4-4 SU, despite being outscored by 62 points on the season. To put that scoroing differential in its proper context, only five teams have worse ones and that includes the Giants, 49ers, Colts and Browns. Now last year, the team did have a scoring differential that was indicative of better play than the record, but w/ so many injuries this year, it's pretty surprising to see them at .500. David Johnson was lost to injury back in Week 1 and probably isn't going to return. Of course, with Adrian Peterson now in the fold, that's no longer the issue it once was. But the fact remains that three of their wins have been at the expense of the Colts and 49ers (2) and two of those were in overtime. So again, this isn't really a competitive .500 team per se. All four losses have come by double digits. Seattle's defense has played two bad games this year, against Tennessee and Houston. The other six have seen them allow no more than 17 points. That's significant b/c Arizona has broken the 20 pt barrier only one time since Week 1. Another key here is success in primetime games. The Seahawks are 20-3-1 SU in them since 2010 and won their TNF game each of the last two seasons. Last time they were off a loss, they played a road game in primetime and destroyed Indianapolis 46-18. Coming off a game where he had a career-high 37 carries, I don't see Peterson being as effective here against what is a far better defensive front anyway. These teams are simply not in the same class and the pointspread is too short. 8* Seattle |
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11-06-17 | Lions v. Packers +3 | Top | 30-17 | Loss | -125 | 59 h 34 m | Show |
10* Green Bay (8:30 ET): The Packers have had two full weeks to prepare to play an opponent w/o Aaron Rodgers, who in all likelihood will not be back this season (even if the team somehow manages to make the playoffs?). I though Brett Hundley played admirably two weeks ago against the Saints, a game here at home that the Pack lost 26-17. But it was close, within one score in fact, until New Orleans scored a late TD. GB's opponent this week is Detroit, who hasn't been as lucky this season as they were last, which if you follow my writing, won't come as any shock. The Lions were one of several "fraudulent" playoff teams from a year ago as their NIINE fourth quarter comebacks were a league record. They too are off a bye after losing three straight. With two teams on losing streaks, something has to give here and I believe Hundley can play well enough to lead his team to victory. Needless to say, no one would have anticipated GB being a home dog for this matchup. But the Rodgers' injury changed everything. Hundley threw for only 79 yards last week and under his direction, the offense has scored only 27 pts in two games w/ less than 500 total yards. But Detroit's defense may be the elixir they are looking for. They've allowed two 300+ yard passing days in the L3 games and in between gave up nearly 200 yds rushing to New Orleans. So, as bleak as things may look in Green Bay right now, there is hope. I think it would be wrong to simply write them off the rest of the way. There has been only one previous instance of them being a home dog the L3 seasons and they won the game outright. Detroit's offense has its own issues right now. They failed to score even one touchdown in the 20-15 loss to Pittsburgh two weeks ago (five field goals) despite five trips into the red zone. They now rank 28th in red zone efficiency. They cannot run the ball as only one time in seven games have they gone over 100 yards. They are averaging 82 rush YPG, which shockingly is only fifth worst. This is not a team I would trust in the road favorite role and I still think more regression is set to come after overachieving so dramatically last year. 10* Green Bay |
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11-05-17 | Redskins v. Seahawks -7 | Top | 17-14 | Loss | -113 | 95 h 14 m | Show |
10* Seattle (4:05 ET): This will be the second week in a row that my top NFL play for the week involves the Seahawks. Last week, I had the Over in their game w/ Houston, which turned into a wild 41-38 for them (best game in NFL this year?). While Russell Wilson and company needed almost the full 60 minutes to achieve victory, I was holding a winning ticket a lot earlier than that as the Over hit late in the third quarter. The rest of the league can now sleep easier knowing that the Seahawks will be the last team to face Texans QB DeShaun Watson as the sensational rookie tore his ACL in practice this week and is done for the year (terrible for the league). This week's opponent is Washington, who is injury-riddled and coming off a bad 33-19 loss (at home) to the division rival Cowboys. Despite the somewhat "conventional" handicapping wisdom that says to take a team off a bad loss, I just don't think the spread is nearly high enough here to endorse the Redskins. In fact, my own power rankings say Seattle is the one being undervalued by about a field goal. After all, this is a team that's won 16 of its last 20 home games. Washington is a team looking to pick up the pieces following B2B NFC East losses. Last week, the offense gained less than 300 total yards against a Dallas defense that quite frankly isn't all that good. Now they turn around and face Seattle, who is allowing only 18.9 points per game, good for seventh in the league and keep in mind that number was even lower before last week. The Redskins are going to have to figure out a way to move the ball w/o TE Jordan Reed, who is one of 13 players currently listed on the injury report. I don't see that happening. Meanwhile, Seattle had no issues moving the ball last week as QB Wilson threw for 446 yards in a very impressive display. With Philadelphia having the best record and both Minnesota and New Orleans surprising, I don't feel that enough people are paying attention to the Pacific Northwest right now as this is the one NFC division winner from last year likely to repeat. The team's lone weak spot, the offensive line, was addressed at the trade deadline as Duane Brown was brought in from Houston. Defensively, the Seahawks should look a lot better this week now that they're not facing Watson. Seattle is not a place where you want to show up playing poorly and banged up and sadly for Washington, they currently fit both of those parameters. 10* Seattle |
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11-05-17 | Falcons +1.5 v. Panthers | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -110 | 92 h 60 m | Show |
8* Atlanta (1:00 ET): There's been a change in favorite for this NFC South matchup w/ the Falcons now in the role of chalk. Though I'm on them and the play certainly still stands, I have to admit that even I was taken a bit aback by the line move. However, perhaps it has something to do w/ the Panthers' strange decision to trade away their #1 wide receiver and close friend of QB Cam Netwon, Kelvin Benjamin. It's not as if Carolina had any kind of depth at that position plus they struggle to run the ball as well. The Panthers defense has really carried the team this year. There have been four games this year when the Panthers have been held to 17 pts or less and they've actually won two of them. Now, you may be thinking that this is not the greatest spot for Atlanta. It is their third consecutive road game and last week they struggled just to get by the Jets (they did cover for me). But also be aware that Carolina has yet to have its bye, so this is a ninth straight game for them w/ no off-weeks. They too are off B2B road games, one win and one loss, and both were 17-3 finals. The loss was very hard-luck as they held Chicago to only five first downs, but gave up a pair of defensive scores. Last week saw them turn the tables on a struggling Tampa Bay team whose QB was not 100 percent. This week sees them playing an offense that was #1 in the league by a mile last season. Granted, Matt Ryan and company have fallen off somewhat in 2017, but there's still plenty to like there. With Carolina's defense, it's worth noting that the four opponents they've held in check would all qualify as having "bad offenses" (SF, Buf, Chi, TB). Their other four opponents - New Orleans, New England, Detroit and Philadelphia - all managed at least 24 points against them. Conditions were not favorable (rained) for the Falcons LW vs. the Jets, but the weather should be more cooperative here. QB Ryan fumbled three times last week, yet still completed 18 passes for 246 yards and even more promising was the run game going for 140 yards w/ Tevin Campbell also being a receiving threat out of the backfield. Atlanta has beaten Carolina three straight times and I just don't see the home team having enough offense to end that streak come Sunday. 8* Atlanta |
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11-05-17 | Rams v. Giants +4 | Top | 51-17 | Loss | -115 | 92 h 59 m | Show |
8* NY Giants (1:00 ET): Suffice to say, back when the NFL schedule was released, no one could have envisioned a scenario where the Rams would be favored in MetLife Stadium. Yet, here we are as one of the league's biggest surprises takes on arguably it's biggest disappointment. I was bearish on these Giants coming into the season, noting last year's team that finished 11-5 SU was extremely fortunate considering that they only outscored their opposition by 26 points (over the course of the full season). They were 8-3 SU in one-score games and received a huge boost from a defense that jumped from being one of the worst units in the league to one of the best. Now that the defense has regressed and the offense still stinks, you have a 1-6 team coming out of its bye week. The Rams are also off a bye. They were one of the league's very worst teams a year ago, but have started 5-2 SU for 1st year HC Sean McVay, who has done wonders for his second-year QB Jared Goff. It is the Rams' offense making a quantum leap forward being most responsible for the jump up in the standings. Funny, because most thought that if this team was to improve, it would be Wade Phillips' defense leading the charge (admittedly, that side of the ball has been strong in 2 of the past 3 games). But like we saw Thursday w/ Buffalo, the market is bound to catch up to some of these early season surprises and like the Bills, the Rams are favored on the road here. That has happened one time before this season and LA was infamously "back-doored" on a Thursday night by the 49ers. I just wouldn't feel comfortable yet laying points w/ the Rams on the road. Since the final week of the 2010 season (yes, 2010!), the Rams have been a road favorite of more than three points only THREE times. They have not only failed to cover all three times, but also lost all three games outright. The most recent instance was 2015 at San Francisco. This is also the dreaded 1 PM (ET) start for a West Coast team and it comes on a weekend where Daylight Savings Time ends, so the Rams' body clocks may be far from normal. I get that the Giants have looked lifeless and are missing key personnel (WR position really depleted). The suspension of Janoris Jenkins certainly does not help, but the bottom line is the G-men have had the lead in three games this season. We're set to see better results from them, I believe. Take the points. 8* NY Giants |
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10-30-17 | Broncos +7.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 19-29 | Loss | -115 | 127 h 59 m | Show |
10* Denver (8:30 ET): Was it only two weeks ago that we all considered Kansas City the best team in football? The Chiefs were unbeaten at 5-0, not only straight up, but against the spread as well. They'd won 27 of 31 regular season contests and with that Week 1 upset of the Patriots, were certainly deserving of all accolades. But two losses later and now they're looking to snap their first losing skid since a 1-5 SU start in 2015. Division rival Denver is another team whose last two weeks have not gone well. They went into their (early) bye week at 3-1, but suffered a shocking Sunday night loss to the Giants, then were shutout by the Chargers last week. So, it's two desperate teams here and with it being a division rivalry, I expect a close game. Thus, taking the points is a "no brainer." Kansas City's losses have come to Pittsburgh and Oakland. They were actually dominated far more than the final score (19-13) indicated against the Steelers as they were outgained 439-251 and had 11 fewer first downs. The Raiders game, on a Thursday night, saw the defense again shredded to the tune of 505 yards and 32 first downs. Now Denver's offense isn't exactly prolific. They've been held to 16 pts or fewer four straight weeks. But in that shocking loss to the Giants two weeks ago, the offense did gain 412 total yards. The problem is that they turned it over three times there and then did the same again last week. A -6 TO margin in a two-week span will leave most teams at 0-2. One thing that this Broncos offense should do is lean on running the ball. Kansas City's defense is only 28th at stopping the run. Denver, believe it or not, has outgained all six of its opponents this season! That astounding fact has a lot to do w/ their league-leading defense, which is permitting an average of just 258.5 yards per game. That unit should certainly be able to keep them in this one. Note that while the Broncos are outgaining foes by roughly 80 YPG, the Chiefs have actually been outgained this season and are giving up nearly 400 YPG! Denver, like KC, has been an underdog in only one game all year. That was Week 2 vs. Dallas and they blew the Cowboys out 42-17. As an underdog, the Broncos are not just 9-4-1 ATS the L3 seasons, but also 9-5 straight up. They've also won three straight Monday night games as well. With this being the middle game of a three-game road trip, and Philadelphia on deck, you have to figure it will be the Broncos' best effort here. They are also 5-1 SU, 4-1-1 ATS off a division loss. 10* Denver |
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10-29-17 | Steelers -2.5 v. Lions | Top | 20-15 | Win | 100 | 103 h 60 m | Show |
8* Pittsburgh (8:25 ET): Those who follow me, know that road favorites simply are "not my thing." At least, usually. But I'll make a big exception here for a matchup where I believe the road chalk to be significantly better than the home dog and the line is basically insignifcant. Pittsburgh is a rather "quiet" 5-2 (SU) right now, but actually ranks #1 in DVOA over at FootballOutsiders, a ranking which carries a lot of weight (in my opinion). As for Detroit, this is a team whose record I haven't respected for the last two seasons. Last year's 9-7 SU finish was pretty phony based on them not beating a single playoff team along the way and needing a record EIGHT fourth quarter comebacks to get there. I didn't think they had a chance to match LY's record this year, so at 3-3 SU currently, don't be surprised if they start losing more than they win the rest of the way. I'll lay the short number here. Yes, the Lions are coming off a bye, but underdogs off a bye week tend to not perform as well as favorites. That's confirmed by a poor effort last week from Cincinnati, who faced (you guessed it!) the Steelers. Coming off a huge road win over Kansas City (handed Chiefs their 1st loss of the season), the Black & Gold beat down their division rival, winning 29-14 w/ a rather commanding 420-179 edge in total yardage. Having to constantly settle for field goals is what kept that game (and my Over bet!) more interesting than it should have been. But now they get to face a Lions team that gave up 52 pts in its last game, two weeks ago at New Orleans. To bring things "full circle" here, underdogs coming off a bye week are just 47% ATS dating back to '03. A reason for the Steelers' slow start offensively was that RB Le'Veon Bell was just getting back into "game shape" after holding out all preseason. But Bell has posted B2B monster games w/ 179 and 134 yards against the Chiefs and Bengals respectively. Conversely, the Lions have no run game as they average just 84 YPG over land, which ranks 26th. Pittsburgh's defense is also quietly playing very well as it is giving up only 16.6 PPG for the year, which is third fewest in the league. Additionally, they rank 2nd in total defense (yardage allowed). Keep in mind that the scoring average would be even lower were it not for TWO pick-six's returned against them in the Jacksonville game. Detroit's offense isn't averaging 300 YPG right now, an ominous sign, while Pittsburgh is outgaining its opponents by slightly more than 100 YPG, which is #1 in the entire league. 8* Pittsburgh |
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10-29-17 | Falcons -4 v. Jets | Top | 25-20 | Win | 100 | 96 h 6 m | Show |
8* Atlanta (1:00 ET): Needless to say, NO ONE expected these two teams to be sporting near-identical records entering this Week 8 matchup. Atlanta, who infamously blew a 28-3 lead in LY's Super Bowl, had aspirations of returning to that big game this year. As for the Jets, it was widely perceived that they were tanking in 2017 and would end up w/ the league's worst record. Surprise, surprise though. Both have the same number of wins (3) right now, though the Jets have played one more game. It's getting to be desperation time for the Falcons, who are in a tough division (NFC South) and can't afford to be dropping many more games if they want to even make the playoffs. Least of all this one, against a team that should not be able to compete w/ them offensively. I rarely play road favorites, but will make an exception here. Now that Falcons offense, which led the league by a mile last year, has certainly fallen off in the first half of this season. Some of that has to do w/ the departure of OC Kyle Shanahan. But Shanahan taking his playbook to San Francisco can't solely explain Matt Ryan and company scoring all of seven points the last six quarters w/ that lone TD coming in garbage time last Sunday night vs. the Patriots. Being that they were embarrassed (again) on national TV last week, my guess is that Falcons' stock has reached its nadir & it's now time to "buy low." I should also mention that their previous two losses (also to AFC East teams), were both highly misleading. They outgained Miami 339-289, but inexplicably blew a 17-0 halftime lead at home. The week before, also at home, they outgained Buffalo 389-281. However, they were undone by a -3 turnover margin, most notably a fumble return for a touchdown. So while Atlanta is 3-3, they are still outgaining foes by 47.3 YPG and averaging a healthy 6.4 yards per play. To put that in proper perspective, the 3-4 Jets are -45.9 YPG. They are also off B2B crushing defeats against AFC East (their division) foes. First, they left New England feeling ripped off after a bad call denied them a chance to take New England to overtime (lost 24-17). Then last week, they blew a 2 TD lead at Miami, losing in overtime. Like we saw w/ San Francisco last week, it's difficult for a bad team to consistently "get off the mat" after suffering a series of close losses. I don't see the Jets winning here and staying within the number for a third straight time while losing seems unlikely as well. If you're looking for a specific area where the Falcons can exploit the Jets, it could be running the ball as this offense is still averaging a healthy 4.9 yards per carry. They just need to run it more often (only 19 carries LW due to being behind) in order to be more effective and set up the passing game. 8* Atlanta |
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10-29-17 | Vikings v. Browns +9.5 | Top | 33-16 | Loss | -105 | 93 h 47 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (9:30 AM ET): We all know the Browns are bad (just 1 win in the L2 seasons), but what's particularly jaw-dropping in their run of futility under HC Hue Jackson is that they've covered the Vegas number only five times in 23 games! That includes last week, where they took the Tennessee Titans to overtime, but (of course) lost 12-9 as 5.5-point home underdogs. Meanwhile, Minnesota is starting to emerge as one of the league's most pleasant surprises. They've lost their starting QB, RB and WR1, yet still have somehow found a way to go 5-2 SU and take the lead in the NFC North. As I said last week, they stand to be the biggest beneficiary of the Aaron Rodgers injury (out for year?) in Green Bay. But something else I said last week was that I can't believe the respect the Vikings are now getting in light of all their injuries. They got over me last week (playing at home against Baltimore), but I don't like them laying this many points away from home, even if it is London and against the Browns. Hold your nose and take the points. Now, I'm fully aware that none of the three previous London games have been close this year. The favorite has delivered a lopsided shutout in each of the last two (Rams 33-0 last week) while Jacksonville was a 44-7 winner over Baltimore, as a small dog, in the other. Clearly, that precdent isn't good for Cleveland, but it is worth noting that despite an 0-7 SU record, the Browns have outgained their opposition this year! Their defense ranks in the Top 10 in yards allowed (304.7) and can keep them in games, especially when facing an offense as depleted as Minnesota's is right now. The Vikings come in averaging only 20.9 PPG for the year and that number drops to 14.5 away from home. Prior to last week's win and cover over Baltimore (24-16, -5), Vikings QB Case Keenum was 1-7 ATS all-time as a favorite w/ SIX outright losses, including one at home to Detroit earlier this year. With Keenum under center, RB Dalvin Cook out for the year and WR Stefon Diggs still battling a groin injury, I just can't endorse this team in this price range. Now Cleveland is admittedly a mess and will be going back to rookie QB DeShone Kizer here as HC Jackson grows more and more desperate by the week. Also, Kizer won't have Joe Thomas protecting him anymore as Thomas is done for the year w/ a triceps injury. (Thomas had NEVER missed a snap in his career before last week!). That all being said, the Vikings aren't going to be favored by more in any game this season, not even at home, and hadn't even been asked to lay more than a field goal this year prior to last week. 8* Cleveland |
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10-23-17 | Redskins v. Eagles -4 | Top | 24-34 | Win | 100 | 25 h 42 m | Show |
10* Philadelphia (8:30 ET): The Eagles have made a case that they are the best team in the NFC having started 5-1 (SU) including a nice road win over Carolina last Thursday. The extra prep time here is significant, giving them an advantage they probably didn't need to overcome division rival Washington, a team they defeated back in Week 1, 30-17 on the road. I was on the Eagles there and it's certainly worth noting that they closed as two-point road favorites for that season opening contest. That makes the spread for this rematch certainly look too low given the change in venue. I'll gladly lay the points as Washington struggled to get by a winless San Francisco team last week. This is Washington's second Monday night game in three weeks. The last one, against the Chiefs, ended w/ one of the worst beats in recent memory as what was a tie game in the final minute ended up 29-20 when the Chiefs scored a garbage defensive touchdown in the final seconds. Needless to say, I don't want to rehash that anymore given I was on the Redskins. Philadelphia's only loss this year was to the Chiefs, back in Week 2. While Washington probably deserved better against KC, they were thoroughly outgained by the Eagles back in Week 1, 356-264 and turned the ball over four times. The Redskins are missing two key pieces on defense coming into this rematch, Jonathen Allen on the line and Josh Norman in the secondary. That could mean plenty of trouble against an Eagles offense that is averaging a very healthy 6.1 yards per play its last three games. Philadelphia is also getting back its best offensive lineman, Lane Johnson. Washington also had to sign a new kicker this week after Dustin Hopkins was placed on IR. The Redskins are 0-4 SU and ATS their last four appearances on Monday Night Football. 10* Philadelphia |
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10-22-17 | Ravens +6 v. Vikings | Top | 16-24 | Loss | -115 | 48 h 32 m | Show |
8* Baltimore (1:00 ET): Imagine this: Minnesota is playing w/o its starting QB, top RB (done for the year), top WR and possibly two starting offensive linemen, yet is favored prohibitively this week. That speaks volumes about the current state of the Ravens, who as noted last week, have the most players on injured reserve in the entire league. That caused me to play against Baltimore in Week 6 as they were laying a significant amt of points (at home) to a seemingly overmatched foe (Chicago). Sure enough, despite two non-offensive scores, they dropped the game outright (in overtime). Now though, the proverbial "shoe" is on the other foot. The Vikings stand to be the biggest beneficiaries of the Aaron Rodgers injury as not only were they the team facing the Packers last week (won 23-10), but they're in the same division and all of a sudden the NFC North doesn't look so tough. It's funny that it was just one week ago that Minnesota appeared to be helpless, even at home, facing Rodgers and Green Bay. As noted above they were w/o their starting QB (Sam Bradford), RB (Dalvin Cook out for year) and top WR (Stefon Diggs). But, my, how things can change in an instant. Anthony Barr's (dirty?) hit on Rodgers broke the former MVP's collarbone and the Vikings would go on to pull the "upset" (were 3-pt home dogs), 23-10. The Pack were helpless w/o Rodgers, failing to score after halftime. For what it's worth, Minnesota only kicked three field goals (no TD's) in the second half. But they're feeling pretty good about the position that they are in at 4-2 straight up. This despite that Bradford, Cook and Diggs all being out again, plus there's a good chance that the left side of the O-line - guard Nick Easton and tackle Riley Reiff - will miss this game. Ask yourself, given the above information, does this sound like a team you'd want to lay points with? Baltimore has its own offensive issues right now, but there's a lot to like about the defense, especially since it looks like DT Brandon Williams is set to return. When the offense isn't turning the ball over and putting the defense in bad positions (like vs. Jacksonville), the Ravens typically don't give up many points. In each of the three wins, they've allowed 17 pts or fewer. I don't think they should be too scared by Vikings QB Case Keenum here. Remember that the first two games saw them force as many turnovers (10) as points allowed! Under John Harbaugh, this is a team that rarely gets blown out (I know they have twice this year) and they're a solid 2-1 ATS as underdogs this season. This figures to be a low-scoring game where you want to take the points. 8* Baltimore |
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10-19-17 | Chiefs v. Raiders +3 | Top | 30-31 | Win | 100 | 30 h 49 m | Show |
10* Oakland (8:25 ET): Coming into the year, this was certainly a game the Raiders had "circled" on their schedule. There were two deciding factors in the Chiefs winning the AFC West and not the Silver and Black last season, despite both finishing w/ identical 12-4 SU records. One was Raiders QB Derek Carr getting hurt before the final game. The second was Kansas City sweeping the season series. Overall, KC has now won five straight over Oakland and will be favored to make it six in a row Thursday night. As much as they were probably looking forward to this game, the Raiders will take a win over anybody right now as they've dropped four in a row, failing to cover the spread every time. So this game now has an even greater importance for them. The Chiefs are also off a loss here, their first of 2017, as they were beaten at home by Pittsburgh last week. I'm going to take the points here. Oakland came into this season on the short list of teams expected to challenge New England for AFC supremacy. I didn't buy it as this team was extraordinarily fortunate in 2016 by going 8-1 SU in one-score games and finishing tied (w/ the Chiefs!) for the league's best turnover differential. Also, their regular season point differential of +31 was the lowest EVER for a team finishing w/ 12 or more wins. But, circling back to this game, I would not have thought (coming into the year) that the Raiders would be a home dog in this spot. Part of it is the Chiefs' hot start and part of it is obviously their own four-game slide. But there is no denying this team is much better w/ Carr in the lineup and while he's missed only one game due to a back injury, his absence at least partly explains why the team is currently on a four-game losing streak. Note that the last time the Raiders lost four in a row (2014), they responded w/ a Thurs night home win over these Chiefs! KC hasn't lost many AFC West games since that Thursday night affair three years ago. In fact, they won 12 straight division games, going 9-3 ATS in the process. They entered last week almost universally hailed as the best team in the league, but as mentioned before, were beaten at home by the Steelers 19-13. They were pretty thoroughly dominated as well, getting outgained 439-251. The 28 yards rushing on only 15 carries was a real "eye-opener." This game may very well come down to turnovers. The Chiefs lead the league in TO margin the L3 seasons and haven't given the ball away since their first offensive play from scrimmage this season! Alex Smith has gone 202 attempts w/o throwing an INT. Meanwhile, the Raiders are just the third team in NFL history not to record a single INT in the first six games! Something has to give here, right? I know the success road teams are having this season (5-1 SU on Thurs nights too), but this is a desperate home dog playing for its season. Kansas City may be down two starting offensive linemen here. 10* Oakland |
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10-16-17 | Colts v. Titans -7.5 | Top | 22-36 | Win | 100 | 14 h 41 m | Show |
10* Tennessee (8:25 ET): This AFC South has been incredibly one-sided dating back to when Peyton Manning still played for the Colts. The Titans have lost 11 in a row to Indy, the last win coming back in 2011, which was the year before the Colts drafted Andrew Luck (Manning injured). Going back further, Tennessee is just 1-16 SU the last 17 meetings! They are only 2-9 ATS during the 11-game losing streak. But, 2017 just "feels" like the time for the Titans to start turning this division rivalry around. As we know, it won't be Manning or Luck under center Monday night for the Colts, rather it will be Jacoby Brissett. As for Tennessee, they thankfully get Marcus Mariota back after basically a two-game absence (inj early in Houston game) that went very poorly for the team to say the least. While both teams come in at 2-3 SU, the Titans' scoring differential is much better and that's with the 57-14 loss to the Texans two weeks ago! Lay the points. The Colts went out and acquired Brissett immediately after a disastrous 46-9 loss to the Rams in Week 1. He's led them to a 2-2 SU record, but let's put that record in its proper perspective. The wins came against Cleveland and San Francisco, who are a combined 0-12 SU and both came by just a field goal (49ers win required OT) at home. So this team is a lot closer to being winless than they are a viable contender in the division. They're being outgained by a NFL-worst 95.4 yards per game w/ their two previous road games being absolutely atrocious as they were outscored by a combined 92-27. The offensive line struggles to protect Brissett (sacked 14x) and the defense just isn't very good. Really, we're learning just how valuable Andrew Luck has been to this team the last few years as this is a really poor roster overall. Tennessee came into this season thinking playoffs, but the Mariota injury has really dampened things. Remember though, with him in the lineup, this team did whip an improved Jacksonville team on the road and beat the Seahawks here at home. Note that if Mariota is unable to go, this play still stands as you'll be able to get a significantly better number. The Titans' defense allowed only 178 yards last week (yet the team still lost!) and I don't see them giving up much here to a Brissett-led offense. The last two games w/ Mariota in at QB, the Titans topped 30 pts both times. This game is a really huge deal for Tennessee as it's not only a rare MNF appearance, but also a very opportune time to snap their long losing streak against a hated divisional foe. 10* Tennessee |
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10-15-17 | Bucs v. Cardinals +2 | Top | 33-38 | Win | 100 | 45 h 28 m | Show |
10* Arizona (4:05 ET): The David Johnson-less Cardinals have been a disappointment so far (yet to win a game in regulation!), particularly at the betting window where they are 0-5 ATS (league's only winless team ATS). But here they draw a Tampa Bay team that I was never as high on as everyone else seemed to be, and are getting points to boot, at home. Last week's 34-7 loss to Philadelphia was undoubtedly ugly, but it was also on the road against a very good team. Tampa Bay came into 2017 overrated, at least in my opinion, as they were outscored (-15 pt diff) despite a 9-7 SU record and were a league-high +6 in net upsets (were only favored three times all season!). This year, the burden of expectations may have caught them as they're only 1-3 at the pay window. I'm taking the points here and expect Arizona to win. Even this year, at only 2-2 SU, the Bucs seem to be overachieving. They're being outgained by 22 yards per game. Looking at their two wins, one was a turnover-fueled situation against Chicago and the other came on a last second FG against the winless Giants. The defense made Case Keenum look like a viable NFL starter back in Week 2, allowing him to complete 25 of 33 pass attempts in a 34-17 loss to the Vikings. Last week, despite a season-high in total yardage, I was disappointed (but not surprised) that the offense managed only 14 pts against a New England defense that had really been struggling. Yes, I know the kicking game was a MAJOR issue in that Thursday night affair, but that's nothing new and special teams are a legit concern here. There were also six drives of four plays or less for the Bucs' offense. The Bucs' defense is far from healthy right now as four starters are less than 100 percent. Arizona is outgaining its foes by 15 YPG and thus due for better results, especially considering they actually LED THE LEAGUE in YPG differential last year (+61.6). In fact, that 7-8-1 SU record from 2016 could qualify as totally misleading seeing as the Cards also outscored opponents by 56 points, which was more than all but SIX teams in the entire league! Now, it's pretty apparant that QB Carson Palmer is at "14:59" of his career and ultimately, the Adrian Peterson trade won't mean much. But I'm staunchly of the opinion that the Cardinals are better than their results over the L21 games while TB isn't as good as it's been made out to be. The Arizona offensive line is also getting healthy, which is key. This team isn't a home dog often and presents a pretty substantial value play here considering they crushed the Bucs LY, 40-7, on this field. 10* Arizona |
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10-15-17 | Rams v. Jaguars -2.5 | Top | 27-17 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 28 m | Show |
8* Jacksonville (4:05 ET): This is a really interesting matchup between surprisingly good teams. When I started to handicap it, I figured I'd come out leaning towards the Rams as they outgained Seattle in a close loss last week. Meanwhile, Jacksonville's 30-9 win over Pittsburgh may not have been as impressive as it looked considering basically three plays decided that game, two of them being pick six's that went their way (Ben Roethlisberger threw 5 INT's overall). However, when I ran my power rankings, it turns out that Jacksonville is actually being underpriced here. They lead the NFL in point differential (stunning!) and should be closer to a touchdown favorite, in my opinion. Don't discount the impact playing Seattle still has on a team the following week. Lay the short number. Most will call Jacksonville's 3-2 start "surprising" and while I'm inclined to agree, prior to the season starting, the majority of metrics did indicated that there would be improvement here. For starters, the turnover battle was "due" to start going their way. In 16 games LY, they produced only 13 takeaways and had a TO margin of -16 (2nd worst). In just five games so far this year, they've already forced 15 TO's (scored 74 pts off them) and lead the league in differential! Funny how that works! The Jags former HC, Gus Bradley, never could put together a winning season here. But he did leave behind a defense that was poised to be excellent and that's come to fruition as they're allowing just 16.6 PPG and three times have held the opponent to nine points or less! Sure, they've yet to string together B2B victories. But this is also only the second time they've been favored. They've overachieved in the early going, which will serve them well moving forward as they look to take a very winnable AFC South. The Rams' defense was thought to be a strength coming into the year, but instead it has been the offense as this team looks totally different under HC Sean McVay compared to the odious Jeff Fisher. They scored 35 pts or more in three of the first four games before getting held to only 10 in LW's home loss to the Seahawks. I faded them in that spot LW as I just didn't think they were worthy favorites against the team that has been the class of their division for the last five years. I still think the Rams are getting a bit too much "residual" credit from that 46-9 beatdown of the Colts back in Week 1. While you could say the same for the Jags and their 37-point win (44-7) over the Ravens, the fact is that in the other four games, Jacksonville has outscored its opponents while the Rams have not. The Jags are the better team here (especially on defense, which is a surprise) and should be getting more credit here for playing at home. The Rams could be looking ahead to next week's trip to London (teams just 12-25-1 ATS in that spot). 8* Jacksonville |
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10-15-17 | Browns +10 v. Texans | Top | 17-33 | Loss | -120 | 42 h 24 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (1:00 ET): You'll get no argument from me that the Browns are a bad football team. Since Hue Jackson took over (before last season), they are now a mind-numbing 1-20 straight up. Perhaps equally as embarrassing is their 5-16 ATS mark. (So much for the pointspread being the "great equalizer!"). They are one of three winless teams (49ers, Giants) entering Week 6 where they are (not surprisingly) getting big points on the road. But you may be shocked to learn that despite a -44 point differential, the Browns are outgaining foes this year on a per game basis and are basically even in yards per play! Therefore, I'm going to "roll the dice" here as yet another QB (Kevin Hogan) tries to jumpstart this moribund franchise. Houston is a team I was NOT high on entering the year and they just lost JJ Watt for the season. Take the points in what has the potential to be a stunning upset Sunday. Last week's loss to the Jets was horrific even by Browns' standards. At home, they outgained the Flyboys by a nearly 2:1 margin, yet still came up three points short on the scoreboard (17-14). Making that final score all the more painful is the fact that THREE times Cleveland had the ball inside the Jets' 10-yard line and came away w/ ZERO points! Watching the game, I felt the blame lied at the feet of HC Jackson and not rookie QB DeShone Kizer, who was not put into the most ideal situations. That said, I think the move to start Hogan here is the correct one as Kizer clearly is NOT ready for the NFL level yet, particularly with such a lack of weapons around him. Hogan won't be bringing back the "glory days" in Cleveland, but he's more mobile than you think and directed both of the team's TD drives last week. The Texans were able to rank near the top of the league in yards allowed LY despite being w/o Watt most of the way. But expecting them to do so again seems foolish. Also, that side of the ball has been further negatively impacted by the loss of Whitney Mercilus. So that's the top two defensive players that the Texans will be without. Even though they lost last week (at home to Kansas City), I feel this is a unique situation where a team is overvalued after a LOSS. That was a national TV game against the Chiefs and QB DeShaun Watson continued to look good. But consider that w/ one exception - a ridiculous 57-14 win over Tennessee two weeks ago - the Texans have not produced a single double-digit victory the last two years! It is Cleveland that surprisingly comes into this game w/ the better defensive numbers as they rank in the Top 5, giving up just 304.8 YPG. 8* Cleveland |
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10-15-17 | Lions v. Saints -4 | Top | 38-52 | Win | 100 | 42 h 24 m | Show |
8* New Orleans (1:00 ET): Bye weeks started last week, thus four teams come into Week 6 w/ some early season rest. All four play at home and three of them are being asked to lay double-digits. Interestingly, the one that is NOT is New Orleans, a team typically known for a strong homefield advantage at the Mercedes Benz Superdome. Now it's been a "high level of mediocrity" in the Big Easy these last several seasons (three straight 7-9 SU finishes), which is what happens when you consistently field a top five offense, but also a bottom five defense. This season saw the Saints start 0-2 w/ losses to the Vikings and Patriots (underdogs in both games). But "true to form," they bounced back w/ B2B wins before the bye, beating Carolina and Miami by a combined 54-13 margin. Coming into the year, I felt "regression" was the operative word for a Lions team that somewhat fraudulently made the playoffs a season ago. They didn't beat a single playoff team en route to LY's 9-7 SU regular season record, which required an NFL-high EIGHT fourth quarter comebacks. The Lions were actually outscored over the course of last year, even before getting blown out by Seattle in the Wild Card Game. So when I saw this team sitting at 3-1 SU going into last week, I just had to fade them. Sure enough, they lost 27-24 to Carolina and the game wasn't really that close as they were outgained by 120 yards and trailed by as many as 17 at home. As I projected, close games have started to go AGAINST the Lions. They also lost to Atlanta, 30-26, after being stopped at the goal line on the final play. (It should also be pointed out that they were outgained pretty severely by the Falcons & only in the game due to a +3 turnover margin). A strange thing has keyed the Saints resurgence the L2 games and that's their defense has actually played well! In addition to allowing just 13 pts in the pair of victories, they've given up an average of only 237 yards per game! Yes, playing Miami (in London) certainly helped, but note Detroit is averaging only 288 YPG offensively. It's also worth pointing out that the Saints whipped the Panthers in Carolina while Detroit lost to them at home. QB Matt Stafford is not 100% right now either. There's even more significant attrition on the defensive side of the ball w/ Haloti Ngata possibly done for the year. As for New Orleans, theybye obviously allows them to come in healthy as LT Terron Armstead is set to make his 2017 debut after offseason shoulder surgery as will WR Willie Snead (suspended first four games). Dumping Adrian Peterson before he became a distraction was a wise move. The Lions' defense allowed a very high completion percentage LY and that seems problematic against Drew Brees, who is averaging almost a full yard more per attempt compared to his counterpart Stafford. 8* New Orleans |
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10-15-17 | Bears +7 v. Ravens | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 42 h 24 m | Show |
8* Chicago (1:00 ET): The Bears have not won a road game since 2015. They share that ignominious distinction w/ only the Browns. But we're in the "Mitchell Trubisky era" now. The rookie signal-caller made his pro debut last week (Monday night) and while his play was "so-so" (at best), there's no denying the team at least played hard. In fact, they led most of the way against Minnesota, only ceding the lead late after a bad Trubisky interception. This week brings what looks to be a greater challenge, at Baltimore, but the Ravens are banged up team right now and a money-burning 0-5 ATS their last five times as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. This looks like your classic overlay as I don't think Chicago is as bad as the oddsmakers seem to. Take the points. Partly responsible for this line is the fact Baltimore went into Oakland last week and came away w/ a fairly convincing 30-17 (were three-point dogs). However, that was not a Raiders team at full strength as they were without QB Derek Carr. Furthermore, the Silver and Black are overrated to begin with. Let's also not forget what happened to the Ravens the previous two weeks; they were beaten down by both Jacksonville (in London) and Pittsburgh (at home), getting outscored 70-16. You may be surprised to learn that this team is -40.2 YPG compared to their opponents. Also remember that they benefited from TEN turnovers in their first two wins, one of which was against the Browns. Earlier I mentioned that the Ravens are "banged up" right now. Really, that's putting things mildly as they have a NFL-high 16 players currently on IR! The most significant of those injuries are all along the offensive line where the team is already down to its third different right tackle! Chicago may be -9.2 in point per game differential, but they're roughly even in total yardage, only being outgained by just over five yards per game. Even w/ four games of Mike Glennon, the Bears' offense is averaging more YPG than is the Ravens. Even though they lost both games, they outgained both the Packers and Vikings the L2 wks, a positive sign if you're Chicago. While Baltimore benefited from forcing 10 TO's in pair of wins, the Bears have suffered two losses where they gave away the ball eight times. These teams are a little more even than you think (remember Chicago upset Pittsburgh!) and the Bears are a perfect 8-0 ATS the L3 seasons in games where the total is 42 pts or less. Bottom line is that in a game where I don't expect a ton of scoring, taking points is the way to go. 8* Chicago |
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10-12-17 | Eagles v. Panthers -3 | Top | 28-23 | Loss | -125 | 29 h 10 m | Show |
10* Carolina (8:25 ET): This just might be the best matchup on the NFL Week 6 slate. I'm not convinced that Philadelphia or Carolina is the "team to beat" in the NFC right now, but both are primed to finish near the top of the standings. We've got a pair of 4-1 starts here and each is off an impressive Week 5 victory. The only difference is that Carolina (on the road) had to withstand a late, but ultimately fruitless, comeback attempt by Detroit. But they still won 27-24 for me as a slight underdog (were +120 in total yds). Meanwhile, there were no issues for Philadelphia in its 34-7 win over Arizona as 6.5-point favorites. That said, an underdog off a win by 21 or more points is typically not a good bet. Teams in that position have covered at just a 43.2% ATS rate since '05. Early betting had more tickets on the Eagles, but more money on the Panthers. Cam Newton may have had a rough week off the field last week, but he looked great w/ the helmet and pads on in Detroit. So far, he's completing 63% of his pass attempts of 15+ yards, which would be a career-best. Remember this was the MVP two seasons ago. He was 6 of 7 on passes of 15+ yards w/ a TD pass LW vs. Detroit. The loss of TE Greg Olsen hasn't seemed to matter as Ed Dickson hauled in five passes for 175 yds a week ago. Overall, Newton is completing over 68% of his passes this year, which would also be a career best (credit Christian McCaffrey). This is an offense that just averaged 30 PPG in a pair of road wins, one of them at Foxboro. The defense is allowing an average of just 18.8 points and 274 yards per game, both of which have them in the top nine in the league. This is a really good team and as I'd expected, they're a lock to improve upon LY's disappointing 6-9-1 SU finish. Philadelphia is another team I expected to improve its record this year. They have a better scoring differential than the Panthers, but their YPG differential is roughly identical. Something that probably won't be talked about enough in the build to this one is the Eagles potentially being w/o stud O-lineman Lane Johnson. Carson Wentz had a career day LW vs. Arizona, but w/o Johnson (concussion), he's likely to decline - severely. Wentz's numbers and the Eagles' won-loss record for that matter are significantly worse when Johnson is not in the lineup (remember he was suspended for 10 games last year). They are 9-2 SU when Johnson plays and 2-8 when he does not and Wentz's TD-INT ratio takes a predictable hit in the games where Johnson doesn't play. Carolina's defense ranks third in the league w/ 17 sacks. The Eagles' defense may be allowing only 19.8 points per game, but they're 22nd in yards allowed (346). They could be w/o DT Fletcher Cox again (missed L2 games) and remember that on the back end, they still don't have CB Ronald Darby. 10* Carolina |
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10-08-17 | Seahawks +1.5 v. Rams | Top | 16-10 | Win | 100 | 30 h 17 m | Show |
8* Seattle (4:05 ET): While there's no debating that the team is much improved, I continue to be surprised by just how much the market has reacted to the Rams' surprising 3-1 (SU) start. This was a team, that when "look ahead lines" came out over the summer, was not supposed to be favored in any of its first 16 games! An injury to Colts QB Andrew Luck resulted in the line flipping for Week 1, however, and the Rams delivered a thunderous 46-9 beatdown in that game to kick off the Sean McVay era. Then, the Rams were favored in their next two games! They lost outright (here at home) to the Redskins in Week 2 though and then were "back doored" as a road favorite in a Thursday night game at San Francisco. An underdog for the first time LW, I took them and they delivered for me w/ an outright win at Dallas. Now they're back to being a favorite and against Seattle no less! The Seahawks are 2-2 SU, having won both home games and lost both road games. While this is a road game (duh!), note the previous two were both "out East," to Green Bay and Tennessee. At least for this one, they get to stay in the Pacific Time Zone. Last week, it was "Seattle's turn" to blowout the Colts, winning 46-18 on Sunday Night Football. The 46 points scored nearly matched the team's point total from the first three games - combined. They outgained the Colts 477-237, largely on the back of a dominant second half where the defense gave up only a FG (and scored a TD itself) while Russell Wilson accounted for three touchdowns on offense. I hate to "overreact" to one result, but the bottom line here is that - coming into the season - I would never have expected Seattle to be a dog in this game, even though it's on the road. Remember that last season saw the Rams start 3-1, only to win just one more game the rest of the way. They're clearly poised for a better finish here in 2017, but I'm unconvinced they can step up in this - arguably their first "high profile" spot of the McVay regime. This is the first time the Rams are favored over the Seahawks since 2011, so while Seattle is 0-5 ATS its last five road games in the rivalry (four of those in St. Louis), that was the Rams "sneaking up on them" as underdogs. They won't be sneaking up here however as I look for the Seattle defensive line to really overwhelm the Rams' offensive line, affecting both the passing and running game. QB Jared Goff is shockingly completing 56% of his throws of 20+ yards, something I do NOT see continuing here against the "Legion of Boom." Under Jeff Fisher, the Rams were only known for a random upset of Seattle every once in a while, but nothing more. He was thankfully disposed and McVay clearly has the team trending in the right direction. But he won't be able to bring the surprise Fisher was known for during his tenure here, at least today. 8* Seattle |
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10-08-17 | Jets v. Browns +1 | Top | 17-14 | Loss | -115 | 73 h 31 m | Show |
10* Cleveland (1:00 ET): It's admittedly a risk to make the worst team in the league your top pick for the week. But as ridiculous as it was for the Browns to be favored two weeks ago on the road at Indianpolis (lost 31-28), it's almost as ridiculous here to find the Jets as a pick 'em or favorite. It was the Jets, not the Browns, that came into the 2017 season as the biggest Super Bowl longshot. Shockingly, however, they have won two straight. First, it was a whitewashing of the Dolphins as 6-pt home underdogs (I took them there!). Then last week brought an overtime win (also at home) over the Jaguars, who were in the unusual spot of having no bye after playing in London (and the Jags were probably feeling a bit "too good" about themselves after a 44-7 win over the Ravens). That all being said, I'd still make Cleveland the favorite here. Yes, the team has just one win since the start of last season (1-19 SU overall!). They are only 5-15 ATS during that time as well. Eventually though, things have to turn. I will point out that - so far - the Browns have had to face three of the top 10 pass rushes in the league (all division foes). That's done rookie QB DeShone Kizer, who like most rookies holds onto the ball too long, no favors. But the Jets' pass rush has been virtually non-existent (2nd worst so far) and a run defense that was such a strength last year has allowed 175+ yards in three of four games this year. So don't be surprised to see the Browns have their best rushing day to date here and for Kizer to have his best game as a pro. Defensively, #1 overall draft choice Myles Garrett is set to finally debut. That should provide a big lift to that unit. Coming into the year, you wouldn't have figured the Jets would be favored in any game, let alone one on the road. This line is currently hovering around a Pick 'em and could conceivably close with Cleveland as a favorite, but my point still stands. The Jets are getting too much respect from the market here, based on their B2B wins and Cleveland being 0-4 SU. The Jets have yet to top 20 points in regulation this season. I don't see them coming close to last week's stunning 256 yards from the run game. Matt Forte won't play again and on the other side of the ball, Kony Ealy is out as well. The Jets did win here last year for their fourth straight win and cover over Cleveland, but I don't see them making it two years in a row. The notion that the Jets are a "public side" in the year 2017 seems quite foolish. 10* Cleveland |
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10-08-17 | Bills v. Bengals -3 | Top | 16-20 | Win | 100 | 73 h 30 m | Show |
8* Cincinnati (1:00 ET): Maybe what the Bengals needed was to just get out of Cincinnati. Or perhaps it was the change at offensive coordinator. Then again, playing the Browns will almost always make you look good. Regardless of what you want to say, the Bengals at least seem to be in better shape now than they were following B2B home losses to start the year where they failed to score a single TD (1st time since '39 that a team started the year w/ B2B home games and failed to score a TD). Bill Lazor, a Chip Kelly disciple, was made the new OC shortly thereafter and the team responded w/ a wire to wire cover at Green Bay (I had 'em!), though they did lose in overtime. Then came the first win of the year, 31-7 at Cleveland last week. Now they return to the "scene of the crime," looking to not only win for the 1st time at home this year, but score their 1st TD here. For the record, Buffalo was a team I was higher on than most coming into the season. I have an outstanding ticket on them to finish Over 6.5 wins and w/ them starting 3-1, that ticket is looking pretty good right now. The Bills are one of two teams (Chiefs) to be 4-0 ATS as they've pulled B2B upsets of Denver and Atlanta the last two weeks. But, go inside the boxscore from last week and you'll quickly find out they were quite fortunate to go in and beat the reigning NFC Champs on the road. They were outgained by 110 yards (-10 in first downs) and ran the ball at only 3.3 yards per carry. What won them the game was a +3 turnover margin, one of them (a fumble return) being directly converted into a touchdown. There were also two long (55+ yard!) Steven Hauschka field goals, a byproduct of playing indoors. Buffalo may be 3-1 SU, but they've been outgained by 22 yards per game. Compare that to Cincinnati, who is 1-3 SU, but +19 YPG. Going back to last season, the Bills' offense has typically struggled away from home, averaging only 17.9 PPG, which is way down from their 29.3 PPG average at home during the same time. Let's not be quick to forget their 9-3 loss at Carolina in Week 2. The Bengals' offense has scored 55 pts the L2 games and I just can't see them starting the year 0-3 at home. They, like the Bills, were a team that I earmarked for improvement this season as they were far better in 2016 than their 6-9-1 SU record showed. QB Andy Dalton has completed 81% of his pass attempts since Lazor became the OC at 8.7 YPA w/ a 6-0 TD-INT ratio. 8* Cincinnati |
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10-08-17 | Panthers +3 v. Lions | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 72 h 30 m | Show |
8* Carolina (1:00 ET): I thought the Lions were very fortunate to make the playoffs last year as they required EIGHT fourth quarter comebacks and didn't beat a single team w/ a winning record. Now in 2017, they've again produced a winning record via "smoke and mirrors." Sure, they are one play away from being 4-0 straight up, but note that they've beaten the 0-4 Giants and also a Vikings team that was w/o its starting QB and then lost its starting RB to injury. In Week 1, they were also trailing Arizona, who lost stud RB David Johnson to injury! They've faced one of the easier slates of defenses thus far and lead the league in turnover margin (+9) including +6 alone the last two games. The opponent this week (Carolina) is on a 6-2 ATS run as a dog after LW's impressive upset of the Patriots in Foxboro. I expect an outright win here by the Panthers. The Lions' defense did next to nothing LW, gaining just 251 yards on 62 plays. But, fortunate for them, the Vikings turned it over three times and were not only w/o starting QB Sam Bradford, but RB Dalvin Cook went down with an in-game ACL injury. Note that Cook was the one who scored the Vikings' lone TD in the 14-7 final. The week prior, yes, they came within a yard of beating Atlanta. But they were severly outgained in that game, 428-324. Now, the injury bug has taken a big bite out of them. As many as seven starters are expected out for this game, three of them offensive lineman. The other four are in the front seven on defense. That's in addition to WR Kenny Golladay and RB Dwayne Washington both already being ruled out. So, needless to say, this is not a healthy team coming into this Week 5 matchup. Carolina seemed to be trending down following an ugly 9-3 win over Buffalo and a home loss to New Orleans. But then they shocked everyone by going into Foxboro last week and beating the Patriots 33-30 on field goal as time expired. There was nothing phony about that win either as they outgained the Pats 444-373. They even managed to overcome a -2 turnover margin. Even after allowing 30 pts, the Panthers' defense still leads the NFC in scoring. Unlike Detroit, this team is relatively healthy right now (save for TE Greg Olsen being out). QB Cam Newton made some foolish remarks mid-week, but I don't think they'll be a distraction. The Lions have been outgained this season and following a season in which they were +3 in net upsets, I see the Panthers giving them a dose of their own medicine. Detroit can't run the ball (three games w/ < 100 yds rushing) while Carolina has held three of its four opponents below 80 yds over land. 8* Carolina |
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10-02-17 | Redskins +7.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 20-29 | Loss | -140 | 32 h 22 m | Show |
8* Washington (8:30 ET): Due in large part to their opening night victory over the Patriots, a case can be made that Kansas City has played better than anybody through three weeks. They're 3-0 straight up and against the spread following last week's 24-10 win over the Chargers. However, a review of the three game reveals they haven't been necessarily as dominant as you might think. They, of course, trailed New England before a 4Q explosion. They were also tied w/ the Eagles in the 4Q and outgained in the game for that matter. Three first half interceptions from Philip Rivers set them up nicely last week, but even then it was just a 17-10 game before RB Kareem Hunt ripped off a late TD. So, again, this has not been the dominant 3-0 start that you may have been led to believe. Washington, meanwhile, is coming off an eye-popping win over Oakland Sunday night. You have to be careful about overreacting to one, national TV performance, but taking this many points the Skins look like a value. They held the Raiders to 128 yards last week while gaining 472 themselves. It was certainly a more dominant performance than anything the Chiefs have done to date. It was also the 'Skins' second consecutive win as the week prior they went to LA and beat an improved Rams team 27-20. While QB Kirk Cousins' value continues to be debated, people may not realize just how good this Redskins' offense has been the L2 years. They ranked third in efficiency and yards in 2016, trailing only Atlanta and New Orleans. Back to back 27-point efforts make it look like it could be a similar story this year. Kansas City has some pretty significant injury issues coming into this contest, in all three phases of the game no less. On defense, Dee Ford (back) has already been ruled out. Along the offensive line, they may be w/o Eric Fisher. Special teams has even taken a significant hit w/ kicker Cairo Santos landing on the IR. Washington isn't 100%, but their injuries are less noteworthy. Something that needs to be mentioned here is that the Redskins defense has yet to concede 100 yds rushing in any game this year. In fact, they're allowing an average of just 61 YPG over land! So Kareem Hunt could be in store for his toughest day as a pro. These teams have met six times since the Redskins won the Super Bowl back in '91. Incredibly, the Chiefs have won and covered all six times. I'll call for at least the latter half of that trend to come to an end Monday night. Take the points as the Redskins are 16-8 ATS L24 as underdogs, including 5-1 as a road dog of 3.5 to 7 pts. 8* Washington |
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10-01-17 | Raiders +3 v. Broncos | Top | 10-16 | Loss | -116 | 96 h 58 m | Show |
10* Oakland (4:25 ET): Coming into the year, I wasn't as high on either of these teams as most were. So when both started 2-0 SU, I began to question my own projections. But, lo and behold, they both lost SU as short road favorites last week. Denver lost at Buffalo, 26-16, despite an edge in total yds (366-272). Oakland was rather humiliated in the Sunday Night Game, losing at Washington 27-10 w/ perhaps its worst offensive effort of the Derek Carr era (gained only 128 total yds!). Because the Raiders played in primetime, they're the team the public was more likely to "turn against" this week and judging by the line movement, that intuition has already been confirmed. But I don't think the Silver and Black are anywhere near as bad as they looked in D.C. and the Broncos were the team I was lower on coming into the year. Therefore, I'll take the points. For many years, this AFC West rivalry was dominated by Denver. They've won and covered 9 of the past 11 meetings, although it was a split LY as the Raiders were "reborn" and finished the regular season 12-4 SU. Each team won at home in '16, though the Broncos win came in Week 17 when Oakland had lost Carr for the year, which cost them the division. I suspect - as is often the case w/ these division rivalries - that things will now begin to turn. Oakland is the team on the rise while Denver is a team that's been carried by its defense each of the L2 years (including a Super Bowl win). That defense isn't likely to be as good this year and the offense, led by QB Trevor Siemien, simply isn't up to par. Denver's defense has been great against the run so far, but has slipped defending the pass and that's where I look for Carr to exploit them Sunday. Both teams appeared to have offensive line issues last week, but in the case of the Raiders, that unit is nowhere near as bad as it looked last week. Oakland is 4-1 SU and ATS as a road underdog of thre points or less, including the win over Tennessee back in Week 1. Expect more of an emphasis on the run game this week after gaining just 32 yards on 13 carries last week. Carr should obviously play better as well, even against a better defense. I just feel that the better team is getting points in this one. 10* Oakland |
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10-01-17 | Eagles v. Chargers | Top | 26-24 | Loss | -115 | 95 h 28 m | Show |
8* LA Chargers (4:05 ET): Oh, these Chargers. A team I tabbed to be the "most improved" this season has instead started 0-3! They now officially qualify as my biggest disappointment as I actually projected them to be 3-0 SU at this point. But in what many will feel is a bit of "curious handicapping," oddsmakers have them as slight favorites over a Philadelphia team that has looked good to this point (2-1), though it needed a 61-yard FG on the game's final play to skirt by the winless Giants last week. I had the Eagles back in Week 1 when they went into Washington and won and do expect this team to be in the playoff hunt all year long, if not win the NFC East. But this is the proverbial trap game for them, a rare trip out West, where most will expect them to win. The Chargers do not have a bad roster by any means. As someone who has watched the team pretty closely these last two seasons, I can tell you that there main two problems are injuries and an inability to win close games. Theoretically, luck in both of those departments should "even out" over time. It just hasn't happened yet for the Bolts. Since the start of last year, they are an amazing 2-10 straight up in games decided by seven points or less. The injury bug has hit them in some key areas again this year. Yet, they were two missed field goals (each on the final play) away from starting 2-0 this year and despite a -3 turnover margin last week, were still within seven points of the unbeaten Chiefs before Kareem Hunt ripped off a "garbage time" touchdown to put things out of reach. The Chargers are in danger of becoming irrelevent less than one month into their return to LA. They can't possibly lose a third consecutive home game, right? QB Philip Rivers was responsible for all three turnovers last week, tossing three INT's in one half for the first time in his entire career. You have to imagine he'll be play a lot better here. Note that before last week, the Eagles had NEVER won a game w/ Carson Wentz starting at QB where they gave up more than 20 points. They allowed 21 and as mentioned above, needed a 61 yard field goal for the win, at home. Philly has had its own problems winning close games since Wentz became the starter last year. Something that should be noted from last week is though the Giants made it into the red zone five times, twice they turned it over on downs. I look for the Chargers' offense to surprise and have its best game of the season here and the team to win as a result! 8* LA Chargers |
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10-01-17 | Bengals v. Browns +3.5 | Top | 31-7 | Loss | -120 | 92 h 24 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (1:00 ET): The "Battle of Ohio" may have hit its official nadir here as both the Bengals and Browns come in at 0-3 SU. Cincinnati is just a short road favorite, but I'm going to back ... the Browwwwwns? Yes, you read that correctly. I thought it ludicrous that Cleveland was a road favorite (ever so slight) at Indianapolis last week. So I was not surprised to see them lose there, 31-28 (trailed by as many as 21). Meanwhile, I wasn't surprised to see the Bengals give the Packers a game in Green Bay either as I took them as large dogs and watched them race out to a comfortable 21-7 halftime lead. But while they still managed to cover for me, they ended up losing SU - in overtime - 27-24. I want no part of an 0-3 team averaging only 11 PPG, laying points on the road. There are numerous signs pointing to Cleveland as the right side here. First off, strange as this may seem, they have actually outgained opponents this year. That might surprise you considering the Browns are the ONLY team in the league not to have led a single time in the first three weeks of the season. But they played Pittsburgh tough here at home in Week 1 and may have actually won that game were it not for a blocked punt being returned for a touchdown on the opening drive. Also, take two winless teams at this point of the season and the underdog has covered at 64% rate (46-26 ATS). Cleveland is 0-5 SU/ATS its last five meetings w/ Cincy, and won just one of the last seven (Thurs night game in Cincy in '14). But now that the Bengals aren't very good anymore, look for this AFC North rivalry to start evening out some, at least at the pay window. Much has been made of the Bengals changing offensive coordinators prior to the last game. Bill Lazor is now calling the plays and while, on the surface, things looked a lot better last week, let's not forget the team also benefited from a pick-six of Aaron Rodgers. So in two games, the offense has scored a total of two touchdowns, both in the first half last week. Andy Dalton and company were totally shut down in the 2H LW by the Packers. Dalton will be w/o both WR John Ross (#1 DC) and TE Tyler Eifert in this game. So expect the Bengals offense to resemble the disappointing unit we saw for most of last year and the first two weeks of this season. The offensive line here has also completely fallen apart. The Browns have had a "helping hand" in that by signing away Kevin Zeitler in the offseason. Cincy is also dealing with multiple injuries on the defensive side of the ball. For Cleveland, if #1 overall draft choice Myles Garrett could finally get onto the field, that would be huge. But regardless, I'm taking the points here. 8* Cleveland |
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10-01-17 | Titans -1.5 v. Texans | Top | 14-57 | Loss | -110 | 92 h 24 m | Show |
Analysis 8* Tennessee (1:00 ET): The Titans pushed around the Seahawks last week, winning 33-27 in a game where they were actually favored. While a win such as that often times can lead to a letdown the following week, I'm going to say that won't happen here. It's not only that I was that impressed by Tennessee (who has been favored in all three games), but this is just as much a play AGAINST Houston. Sure, the Texans very nearly stunned the Patriots last week (in Foxboro!), losing only 36-33 as double digits dogs (and the Pats needed a late Tom Brady TD just to pull out the win). But that result, while still a loss, probably has Houston and the public thinking they are better than they actually are. Let us not forget that the Texans' offense is still a major work in progress w/ a rookie QB (DeShaun Watson) at the helm. In the first two games, they scored all of 20 points. Meanwhile, the Tennessee offense is off B2B 30+ point performances. They ran all over what was thought to be an excellent Seattle defensive front last week, gaining 195 yards on 5.6 YPC! It was a similar story the week prior at Jacksonville (who also has a good defense). Now I know Houston's defense led the league in yards allowed last year (even w/o JJ Watt), but I'm not as high on them as I am the last two defenses the Titans have faced. Tennessee is top five right now in yards per game offensively and while they're not as lethal as the Patriots, they're certainly head and shoulders above the first two offenses Houston faced this year, those belonging to Jacksonville and Cincinnati. In terms of the respective offensive lines, Tennessee has a big edge here and Houston is still w/o LT Duane Brown (holdout). Watson threw for less than 100 yds against Cincinnati and last week's numbers were a byproduct of an interesting approach by a bad New England defense that sought to contain Watson and not let him out of the pocket. An ability to break long runs (like he did vs. Cincy) is key to Watson's game, but it's also not a sustainable way to succeed in this league. Houston has had Tennessee's number the last several years in this AFC South rivalry. They've won 9 of the previous 12 meetings straight up, while going 10-2 ATS. One of the losses came in a meaningless regular season finale last year. But this is set to be the Titans' division for the next couple of years and thus the rivalry should start to tilt their way. Let's not forget how lucky Houston was to win the division last season. Despite going 9-7 SU, they were actually outscored by 49 points! All but one win (Week 1!) was by a TD or less. Last week's game at New England seemed like mismatch on paper, but it was actually a good spot to back the Texans as they had three extra days to prepare coming off a Thursday game. The Titans are the better team now and I expect them to show that Sunday. 8* Tennessee |
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10-01-17 | Rams +6.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 35-30 | Win | 100 | 46 h 49 m | Show |
8* LA Rams (1:00 ET): The Rams look to be a much improved team in 2017 and have a major advantage coming into this game w/ Dallas in that they played Thursday night last week while Dallas is off the Monday nighter. Though the Rams failed to cover against the 49ers, a brutal beat which saw them win only 41-39 as three-point favorites (led 41-26 w/ just over five minutes to go), there is no denying they were - clearly - the better team last Thursday (led the entirety of the game). It's an obvious step up in class this week, but note that this will actually be the 1st time all season that the Rams have been underdogs! Now that they're a better team, look for them to start to improve upon a rather ugly 5-12-2 ATS record since the start of last season. Take the points. The Rams' improvement begins w/ an offense that has topped 40 points twice already. Last year, they had the league's worst offense, topping 21 points only twice and 28 just ONCE! Credit 1st year HC Sean McVay, a talented playcaller, for the improvement we've seen out of Jared Goff in his second season. It also helps that Goff is benefiting from an improved run game and a better set of receivers than he had last year. On the other side of the ball, look for DC Wade Phillips to work his magic. All things considered, I've actually been a bit disappointed in this group so far, especially last week when they allowed the 49ers to sneak in through the proverbial "back door." But aside from letting Washington run for 200+ yards and the 49ers throw for 300+ yards, the overall number still look good. Phillips is notorious for forcing opposing offenses to run and that's what the Cowboys are going to try and do here anyway. I expect the Rams to be ready. Dallas won in Arizona Monday night, 28-17 (-3), but was outgained 332-273. It was the second straight week that their offense failed to break the 300-yard barrier, which is pretty shocking. Like the Rams, they've been favored in every game thus far. Notoriously though, America's Team has not performed well in the chalk role for HC Jason Garrett. As for the Cowboys defense, remember they gave up 42 points to Trevor Siemien two weeks ago. This unit overachieved last year and should come back "down to Earth" in 2017. An outright win by the dog here would not surprise me. 8* LA Rams |
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09-28-17 | Bears v. Packers -7 | Top | 14-35 | Win | 100 | 29 h 53 m | Show |
10* Green Bay (8:25 ET): No home team has won and no favorite has covered yet on TNF this season. Look for that to change this week in Lambeau. The Packers have owned the Bears for years now (won 12 of previous 14 meetings) and the Bears last won a road game back in Week 16 of the 2015 season. They were one of two teams (Browns) not to win a single one last year. So far this season, they've cashed for me twice, but both times were at home. Last week's outright victory (as 7-pt dogs) over the Steelers (in overtime) will be difficult to follow. As for Green Bay, averting what would have been a disastrous loss LW vs. the Bengals (1st OT win of Aaron Rodgers career) should serve as the necessary wake-up call. I'm laying the points in this one. I've seen a lot of calls for rookie Mitchell Trubisky to start at QB over the admittedly uninspiring Mike Glennon. I'm not surprised, but what folks are failing to realize is that the Bears' receiving corps is just dreadful, easily one of the worst in the league. So it really doesn't matter who is the QB right now. Although, I must admit, Glennon isn't likely to win many games. The Bears won LW despite just 84 yards passing from Glennon! But they had 220 yards rushing. Green Bay's run defense hasn't been great thus far, but here they're also going to be able to "stack the box" and dare Glennon to beat them (he won't). Glennon's longest completed pass this year went for 22 yds and LW he completed only one (pass) to a WR. RB Jordan Howard's shoulder injury isn't exactly helped by the short week either. Both teams have injuries along the offensive line. So it's on the respective QB's to get it done then. Big edge to Rodgers and the Packers obviously. Rodgers has dominated the Bears through the years (105.7 passer rating) and while the secondary he faces here is improved, it will be w/o starting safety Quintin Demps. Remember, I played against the Pack last week as they were laying a similar number to Cincinnati. A Rodgers' pick-six put them in an early hole and while I was confident my ticket would cash, I was not shocked to see GB come back and win the game. I don't think the team will play poorly B2B weeks at home. Over the L3 seasons, this team is 16-4 SU and 14-6 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Cut the threshold off at a TD and they are 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS. 10* Green Bay |
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09-25-17 | Cowboys v. Cardinals +3.5 | Top | 28-17 | Loss | -120 | 21 h 54 m | Show |
10* Arizona (8:30 ET): Both teams come in at 1-1 SU here, but took opposite routs to get there. Dallas won their opener, 19-3 over the Giants, but was then humiliated (as a road favorite) LW in Denver, losing 42-17. Arizona lost its opener, 35-23 to Detroit (fell victim to a Matt Stafford comeback) and then escaped from Indianapolis LW w/ a 16-13 OT win. Coming into the year, I certainly expected the Cowboys to regress a little from last year's breakthrough 13-3 campaign. (Who didn't?). But the Cardinals were a team I'd earmarked for improvement as they were certainly a lot better than LY's 7-8-1 record showed (outscored opp by 56 pts!). I'm sticking to my initial respective reads on the two teams here and will take take points as there's been some "reverse line movement" at play here as well. The loss to the Lions and the injury to David Johnson caused most to "give up" on the Cards pretty quickly I feel. I didn't want any part of them last week as they were laying a pretty sizable number on the road. They definitely started sluggish in Indy, trailing 13-3 early in the 4Q. But even though the Colts had Jacoby Brissett starting at QB, I was impressed by the Cards' defense permitting just three points after the 1st quarter. They ended up outgaining the Colts 389-266. Running the ball may be a problem w/o Johnson, but Denver certainly provided a blueprint for them as last week they ran for 178 yards against the Cowboys defense. Also, look for Carson Palmer to attack a banged up Cowboys secondary that is down two starters. Defensively, Arizona's gameplan here should be similar to Denver's last week in that they need to look to force Dak Prescott to thrown more. Though they did fall behind early, I was stunned to see the Cowboys abandon the run game so quickly last week. Ezekiel Elliot had his worst game as a pro, by a mile, and had his effort level questioned to boot. I can't see him being held in check to that degree for a second straight game, but certainly this Dallas' offense is not "clicking" right now as they're averaging only 18 PPG. WR Dez Bryant will be matched up against CB Patrick Peterson and thus isn't likely to have a big game here either. Under Jason Garrett, the Cowboys have always been money burners in the favorite role. Given what happened last week, I certainly don't trust them laying points here and will back the Cardinals in their home opener. 10* Arizona |
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09-24-17 | Chiefs v. Chargers +3 | Top | 24-10 | Loss | -100 | 99 h 30 m | Show |
10* LA Chargers (4:25 ET): Oh, those Chargers. They are now 0-2 SU on the young year, having lost both games on the final play. Each time it was a missed FG by rookie kicker Younghoe Koo. Week 1, Koo actually appeared to have tied the game w/ Denver, but the Broncos called timeout first. His next attempt was blocked. Last week in Miami saw the Chargers blow a 17-10 lead, but down 19-17 they moved into FG range for Koo, only for him to miss again. Whether in San Diego or LA, this is an all-too familiar pattern for the Bolts, who are now a league worst 2-9 SU in games decided by a field goal or less since 2015 and 4-11 SU in one-score games since the start of last year including coming out on the wrong end of 10 of the last 11! In the name of Dan Fouts, will somebody please stop this madness? This team is better than this, even if their new "fans" in Los Angeles don't really want them. I'm not ashamed to admit that I had the Chargers as one of the most improved teams in the league coming into the season. It's because, eventually, their horrible luck in close games HAS to change. Throw in the fact that they are an ugly 0-6 SU the L3 seasons vs. the Chiefs (three losses by TD or less) and I'm "all in" on this "progression to the mean" philosophy. The offense enters this game healthy as QB Philip Rivers (poor guy!) has a full compliment of skill position players. Last year saw the Chargers jump out to a 24-3 lead on the Chiefs here at home, only for WR Keenan Allen to tear his ACL, and they lost in overtime, 33-27. Rivers played well last week against Miami, completing 31 of 39 passes for 331 yards. Allen was destroying Cheifs CB Marcus Peters in LY's series opener before the ACL tear and I believe can do it again. Right now, Kansas City is the "toast" of the league as they're 2-0 SU/ATS including that shocking win over the Patriots on Opening Night. But it should be noted they were outgained last week at home by Philadelphia. While that's a byproduct of a late Eagles TD drive that ultimately meant nothing, it was a tough game they played against the Eagles. They've been tooth and nail with both opponents going into the fourth quarter, which is the last thing the Chargers want to hear, based on the two teams' records. But, again, eventually these things do work out and regress to the mean. I'm not giving up hope that this Chargers team can turn things around as they're certainly better than their record, something you could also say in 2016. Protecting the ball will be key (Chiefs have the league's best TO margin L3 seasons), but LA will be able to move the ball in this game. Last week, Philadelphia had 27 first downs to KC's 16. Let's just hope and pray that if this game isn't decided until late, things FINALLY go the Chargers' way. 10* LA Chargers |
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09-24-17 | Bengals +10 v. Packers | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 99 h 30 m | Show |
8* Cincinnati (4:25 ET): The Bengals come into Wk 3 w/ the dubious distinction of not having scored a single TD in their first two games, both of which were at home. The last time that happened was 1939! Therefore, it's not a surprise to see them receiving little to no support here, especially since they're up against a team that's long been loved by the public, Green Bay. But might this number now be too high? Prior to them losing last Thursday (13-9 to Houston), this line was set to be around a touchdown. Anything over says "value" to me, especially considering Green Bay lost as well last week, 34-23 down in Atlanta. The expectation is that they'll bounce back, but Cinci has had more time to prepare and is the more desperate team to boot. Take the points. I was on GB (as a dog) last week. In retrospect, that was a misread as they were w/o both starting tackles, which obviously made Aaron Rodgers' job a lot more difficult. Still though, the Pack put up 23 points. It was the defense that struggled mightily. Now, you don't have to tell me that Cinci is not Atlanta, but they do have a lot of talent at the skill positions. I'll repeat something I said last week and that's I'd like to start see more of Joe Mixon running the ball. Though he fumbled last week, John Ross is another rookie I'd like to see used more here. Now TE Tyler Eifert is out. But Andy Dalton still has AJ Green to throw to. Green Bay is a little lucky not to be 0-2 SU themselves coming into this week. Their Week 1 win was predicated on a Seattle pick-six that was called back plus a key turnover (by the Seahawks) which set the Pack up inside the 5-yd line. Historically, this is a great spot to back the underdog. Teams that are 0-2 ATS and getting less than 50% of total bets are 26-15 ATS since 2003. Moreover, the Bengals are 5-1 SU and ATS the previous two seasons when off B2B SU losses. So they typically respond in this scenario. Usually, when a team fails to cover in a primetime game, the public is against them the following week. But because it's the Packers and they're at home against a struggling opponent, that is not the case here. All this has conspired to giving us a ton of value on a desperate underdog that will have to go "all out" so that their season isn't rendered "irrelevant" after just three weeks. The Bengals are better than they've shown so far and should be able to stick within the number. (They're also 10-5 SU/ATS on the road the L2 seasons!) 8* Cincinnati |
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09-24-17 | Dolphins v. Jets +6 | Top | 6-20 | Win | 100 | 96 h 6 m | Show |
8* NY Jets (1:00 ET): Almost universally predicted to be the worst team in the league, you could say things are going "according to script" for the Jets. Not only are they 0-2 straight up, they are 0-2 ATS, having lost their first two games by a combined 34 points. Last week was a 45-20 loss out in Oakland, so public sentiment figures to be even lower than normal, which is saying something. Miami is 1-0 (1st game postponed due to Hurricane Irma) as they were a lucky winner last week in Los Angeles. Three consecutive field goals in the 2nd half, the final one w/ just over a minute to go, rallied them back from a touchdown deficit and the Chargers (of course!) missed a potential GW field goal themselves as time expired. Miami is a team that I predicted would regress in 2017. Even against the Jets, I don't trust them in this lofty price range. For years, taking the Jets against the Dolphins was smart move. Going into last year, they were on a 36-15-3 ATS run against their AFC East rival. But they got swept in 2017, including a 21-pt loss at home. But that blowout loss occurred late in the year when the season - for all intents and purposes - was over for New York. They lost by only four in the first meeting. Note that the Dolphins were favored only FIVE times last season (twice against Jets). They were a clear overachiever in making the postseason in Adam Gase's first season. There was a tremendous amt of good fortune that went their way, namely an 8-2 SU record in games decided by seven points or less. Doesn't the proverbial "worm" have to turn this year? Twice last year, the Dolphins were favored by a TD or more. They pushed against San Francisco and failed to cover against Cleveland, needing OT just to pull out the SU win. Both of those games were at home as well. Over the last decade, they've been a road favorite of six or more points just three times. While they won all three games straight up, they failed failed to cover twice, once against these Jets. Jay Cutler's debut went well enough last week, but he's nothing more than a stopgap and I'm not optimistic regarding his tenure here. I fully recognize that that taking the Jets can be a "dicey proposition," but I just don't trust Miami in this spot as they're a team that was nowhere near as good as their record last year and even against the perceived worst team in the league, this price range is not appropriate. 8* NY Jets |
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09-24-17 | Steelers v. Bears +8.5 | Top | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 96 h 5 m | Show |
8* Chicago (1:00 ET): Public sentiment figures to be completely one-sided heading into this Week 3 matchup. At home, the Steelers took care of business last week, beating the Sam Bradford-less Vikings 26-9 as eight-point chalk. Meanwhile, the Bears were embarrassed on the road, losing 29-7 to Tampa Bay. The Steelers are 2-0 while the Bears are 0-2, but the pointspread is called "the great equalizer" for a reason and in this case, it's rather sizable. As discussed when I played against Pittsburgh back in Week 1 (at Cleveland), this price range has not suited them well during the Mike Tomlin era. That non-cover two weeks ago leaves them at 3-9 ATS as a road favorite of more than a touchdown under Tomlin. Throw in the fact that road favorites of 7 pts or more, no matter the team, have covered at just a 44% ATS rate since '03 and I'm taking the points. Though dominated on the scoreboard last week, Chicago was actually pretty even in total yards vs. Tampa Bay (310-311). The problem was four turnovers, one of them a pick-six by QB Mike Glennon. Predictably, the Bears fanbase is calling for the rookie Mitchell Trubisky to take Glennon's place. But while Glennon didn't necessarily play well last week, he did complete 31 of 45 passes for 301 yards. An issue he is facing is that his receivers aren't very good (Markus Wheaton could debut this wk). Therefore, I'd like to see more of the Bears' ground game like in Week 1 when they went for 125 yds on 19 carries. Playing from behind almost the whole way last week negated the Bears' ability to run the ball. Remember this team did cover for me in Wk 1 against the defending NFC Champion Falcons. They're now 5-1 ATS as home dog of 3.5 to 7 pts. I thought this was a team that would improve in '17, so it's time to get going. Under Tomlin, the Steelers are known to drop a road game that they shouldn't, almost on a yearly basis. Last year, there was a 34-3 stinker at Philadelphia (Week 3!) and a 30-15 loss at Miami, both coming when favored. I wouldn't be shocked if this is 2017's "egg." Note that the Black & Gold have not started a season 3-0 SU since 2010. Thus far, they've faced Cleveland (who started a rookie QB) and Minnesota (who started Case Keenum). So the defense hasn't really been tested. Were it not for a blocked punt returned for a TD in Wk 1, they may not have even beaten the Browns. Baltimore is on deck, so you could qualify this game as a "look ahead." Meanwhile, there's no looking ahead for the Bears, who have Green Bay on deck. A loss here and an 0-4 start is a distinct possibility. It's desperation time in the Windy City. 8* Chicago |
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09-24-17 | Giants +6 v. Eagles | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 96 h 5 m | Show |
8* NY Giants (1:00 ET): The Giants are a disappointing 0-2 SU and ATS and coming off a Monday night loss (at home) to the Lions. An offense that quite frankly wasn't very good last season - with or without Odell Beckham Jr - continues to stink as it's now eight straight games being held under 20 points. That threshold is key for an Eagles team that is 8-0 SU in the Carson Wentz era (which began last year) when holding the opponent below 20 pts. Conversely, they are 0-10 SU when allowing 20+ pts after losing LW, 27-20 at Kansas City. So, can a Giants team that's managed only 13 pts in two games get to 20 this week? Maybe or maybe not, but the bottom line here is I think the points are generous here and if nothing else, adding that in will get the G-Men close enough. The Giants have struggled in recent years against the Eagles, mainly due to a disadvantage in the trenches. I admit, that on paper, their offensive line against the Eagles' defensive line looks to be a mismatch that's not in their favor. But the Philly secondary is banged up right now and that's where I'm hoping Eli Manning, OBJ and the rest of the Giants' passing attack can take advantage. Four DB's missed practice on Wednesday, most notably star corner Ronald Darby, who was acquired in the offseason. There's a chance that all four injured DB's, a list that also includes CB Jaylen Watkins and safeties Rodney McCloud and Corey Graham could miss this game. In other words, I would not be shocked if this was a "coming out party" of sorts for Manning, who remember did not have OBJ in Wk 1. It would also be nice if Brandon Marshall could hold onto the ball. There's no real issue w/ the Giants defense IMO. One of the best in the league last year, I did expect them to take a bit of a step back here in 2017, but they've allowed just 43 points in two games. Maintaining such an average would certainly allow them to stay within the number here. Remember that Philly trailed 27-13 last week before scoring a garbage time TD. This team (the Eagles) have not fared well in games decided by seven points or less w/ Wentz at the helm, going an ugly 1-7 SU including last week. I expect a close game here, especially w/ the Giants in desperation mode (can't afford to drop to 0-3) and trying to erase an ugly 1-5 SU and ATS mark against the Eagles the L3 seasons. Take the points as 0-2 ATS teams on the road are 26-15 ATS since 2003 if the public is fading them (less than 50% bets). Plus, teams playing their home opener in Wk 3 are just 12-26-2 ATS since '03. 8* NY Giants |
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09-21-17 | Rams -2.5 v. 49ers | Top | 41-39 | Loss | -114 | 25 h 54 m | Show |
8* LA Rams (8:25 ET): The 49ers are 0-2 straight up (1-1 ATS), but realistically, that's what you should have expected them to be at this point. I say that as someone who's had them each of the last two weeks. They failed to cash for me in Wk 1, losing 23-3 at Carolina. But then they were my top play in Week 2 as they covered wire to wire in Seattle, losing only 12-9 as massive two touchdown underdogs. As for the Rams, they turned heads in Wk 1 by walloping the Colts, 46-9. But then they came back "down to Earth" last week, losing at home to Washington 27-20. When lines were initially released over the summer, the Rams were set not to be favored a single time in the first 15 weeks. But, given the Colts were w/o QB Andrew Luck and the size of that victory, this will shockingly mark the third straight time they are in the chalk role! They have double revenge from LY (49ers' only two wins!) and look to be much improved. Meanwhile, you can't say the same for the lowly 49ers. No upset this week on TNF. Lay the short number. Two weeks into the Kyle Shanahan regime and the Niners have yet to score a single TD. They've totaled only 12 points overall. A gifted offensive mind, Shanahan brought his system over from Atlanta, but unfortunately for him not the players. Brian Hoyer is the starting QB and he's been pretty dreadful thus far, throwing for just 255 yds - total. Last week, he completed 15 passes for 89 yards (a pitiful 3.27 yards per attempt). The offense was able to run the ball some (159 yds on 19 carries), but will be facing a stout front four here, coached by Wade Phillips. I expect the Rams' defense, under Phillips, to develop into one of the best in the league once Aaron Donald (returned last wk) gets back into form. Facing a bad offense in Week 1, the Rams allowed just 225 total yds w/o Donald. Philips called Donald "rusty" in his return last week, but I doubt that lasts for long. First year HC Sean McVay (youngest in the league) has been charged w/ turning around the Rams' offense, which was so awful under predecessor Jeff Fisher. QB Jared Goff has looked much more comfortable under McVay and it helps that RB Todd Gurley also seems to have regained his form from two seasons ago. It's rare to find the Rams in the chalk role on the road (happened only 4 times since 2010), but here it's justified due to it being a double revenge spot as mentioned above. Actually, the Rams have lost three straight times to the 49ers dating back to '15. They won't lose again here as the team actually appears to be trending toward mediocrity while the 49ers still reside at the bottom of the league. 8* LA Rams |
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09-18-17 | Lions v. Giants -3 | Top | 24-10 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 56 m | Show |
10* NY Giants (8:25 ET): Coming off an embarrassing offensive performance last Sunday night, the Giants figure to be fairly unpopular favorite this week on MNF. But those of us that studied this team in the offseason knew that it would be an offensive struggle this year as QB Eli Manning and company were simply not very good last year, Odell Beckham Jr or not. In 17 games LY (including playoff loss at Green Bay), the G-Men were held to 20 pts or fewer ELEVEN times. With OBJ's status for Monday questionable at best, you may be thinking now is an opportune time to fade Big Blue in the chalk role, but I'm even "colder" on their opponent, who is actually in a better position to fade. The Lions were an even more fradulent playoff team a year ago and coming off yet another come from behind win (9th in 2 seasons!), I say their luck is due to run out. Detroit found itself down 10-0 early LW at home to Arizona and trailed 17-9 late into the third quarter. That's when things turned, however, as Detroit would go onto score four touchdowns (one from the defense) to pull off a 35-23 win. Of the team's nine wins last year, eight came by a TD or less and none were against playoff teams. I am very low on their prospects this year and have predicted a last place finish for them in the NFC North. The defense last year gave up the highest completion percentage in league history! So there's hope for the Giants offense yet! Let's note that Detroit really benefited from Arizona losing RB David Johnson last week as the Cards offense looked lost w/o its best player. Quite simply, I don't think the Lions are a very good team. Defensively, the Giants should have a massive edge in this game. While the offense struggled last week, Big Blue's defense allowed only one touchdown in the 19-3 loss. This was one of the top defenses in the league a year ago and figures to be again in 2017. So don't expect Lions QB Matthew Stafford to complete 70 percent of his pass attempts again. Coming home, off a loss, New York is a somewhat desperate team in this spot. They're hungrier and better than the Lions and this is a small number to lay. The Giants are 8-3 ATS their L11 games where the line is three points or less including 3-1 SU/ATS as a home favorite. Beckham or not, they'll find a way to score enough in this "must-win" spot. 10* NY Giants |
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Bryan Power NFL Top Sides Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-07-18 | Cardinals +4 v. 49ers | Top | 28-18 | Win | 100 | 33 h 22 m | Show |
10-07-18 | Titans v. Bills +5.5 | Top | 12-13 | Win | 100 | 19 h 26 m | Show |
10-01-18 | Chiefs v. Broncos +4.5 | Top | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 36 h 57 m | Show |
09-30-18 | Ravens +3 v. Steelers | Top | 26-14 | Win | 100 | 57 h 34 m | Show |
09-30-18 | Texans +2 v. Colts | Top | 37-34 | Win | 100 | 94 h 33 m | Show |
09-30-18 | Bucs v. Bears -3 | Top | 10-48 | Win | 100 | 49 h 9 m | Show |
09-27-18 | Vikings +7.5 v. Rams | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 29 h 53 m | Show |
09-24-18 | Steelers +1 v. Bucs | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
09-23-18 | Bears v. Cardinals +7 | Top | 16-14 | Win | 100 | 101 h 4 m | Show |
09-23-18 | Raiders +3.5 v. Dolphins | Top | 20-28 | Loss | -115 | 98 h 39 m | Show |
09-23-18 | Packers v. Redskins +3.5 | Top | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 98 h 39 m | Show |
09-20-18 | Jets v. Browns -3 | Top | 17-21 | Win | 100 | 47 h 11 m | Show |
09-17-18 | Seahawks v. Bears -3.5 | Top | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 34 h 34 m | Show |
09-16-18 | Colts v. Redskins -5.5 | Top | 21-9 | Loss | -110 | 115 h 45 m | Show |
09-16-18 | Chiefs v. Steelers -5 | Top | 42-37 | Loss | -105 | 115 h 35 m | Show |
09-13-18 | Ravens -1 v. Bengals | Top | 23-34 | Loss | -102 | 32 h 45 m | Show |
09-10-18 | Rams v. Raiders +5 | Top | 33-13 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 58 m | Show |
09-09-18 | Bears +9 v. Packers | Top | 23-24 | Win | 100 | 125 h 20 m | Show |
09-09-18 | Chiefs v. Chargers -3 | Top | 38-28 | Loss | -125 | 121 h 6 m | Show |
09-09-18 | Steelers v. Browns +6 | Top | 21-21 | Win | 100 | 118 h 1 m | Show |
09-09-18 | Bucs +10.5 v. Saints | Top | 48-40 | Win | 100 | 118 h 1 m | Show |
09-06-18 | Falcons v. Eagles -2.5 | Top | 12-18 | Win | 100 | 53 h 21 m | Show |
01-21-18 | Vikings v. Eagles +3.5 | Top | 7-38 | Win | 100 | 103 h 39 m | Show |
01-21-18 | Jaguars +9.5 v. Patriots | Top | 20-24 | Win | 100 | 99 h 4 m | Show |
01-14-18 | Jaguars +7.5 v. Steelers | Top | 45-42 | Win | 100 | 113 h 57 m | Show |
01-13-18 | Titans +14 v. Patriots | Top | 14-35 | Loss | -115 | 96 h 7 m | Show |
01-13-18 | Falcons v. Eagles +3 | Top | 10-15 | Win | 100 | 92 h 17 m | Show |
01-07-18 | Panthers +6.5 v. Saints | Top | 26-31 | Win | 100 | 121 h 20 m | Show |
01-07-18 | Bills v. Jaguars -8 | Top | 3-10 | Loss | -103 | 118 h 45 m | Show |
12-31-17 | Jaguars +6 v. Titans | Top | 10-15 | Win | 100 | 116 h 59 m | Show |
12-31-17 | Panthers +4 v. Falcons | Top | 10-22 | Loss | -110 | 116 h 59 m | Show |
12-31-17 | Redskins v. Giants +3.5 | Top | 10-18 | Win | 100 | 113 h 48 m | Show |
12-24-17 | Giants +4 v. Cardinals | Top | 0-23 | Loss | -115 | 125 h 38 m | Show |
12-24-17 | Seahawks +5 v. Cowboys | Top | 21-12 | Win | 100 | 125 h 38 m | Show |
12-24-17 | Dolphins +10 v. Chiefs | Top | 13-29 | Loss | -110 | 121 h 14 m | Show |
12-24-17 | Chargers v. Jets +7.5 | Top | 14-7 | Win | 100 | 121 h 14 m | Show |
12-18-17 | Falcons -6.5 v. Bucs | Top | 24-21 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 3 m | Show |
12-17-17 | Cowboys v. Raiders +3 | Top | 20-17 | Push | 0 | 101 h 33 m | Show |
12-17-17 | Packers +2.5 v. Panthers | Top | 24-31 | Loss | -100 | 93 h 3 m | Show |
12-17-17 | Jets +17 v. Saints | Top | 19-31 | Win | 100 | 93 h 3 m | Show |
12-16-17 | Bears v. Lions -5 | Top | 10-20 | Win | 100 | 73 h 35 m | Show |
12-10-17 | Ravens +6 v. Steelers | Top | 38-39 | Win | 100 | 129 h 54 m | Show |
12-10-17 | Seahawks +3 v. Jaguars | Top | 24-30 | Loss | -115 | 125 h 59 m | Show |
12-10-17 | 49ers v. Texans -2.5 | Top | 26-16 | Loss | -125 | 122 h 34 m | Show |
12-07-17 | Saints v. Falcons +2 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 57 h 60 m | Show |
12-03-17 | Eagles v. Seahawks +6 | Top | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 124 h 38 m | Show |
12-03-17 | Panthers v. Saints -4 | Top | 21-31 | Win | 100 | 120 h 34 m | Show |
12-03-17 | Broncos v. Dolphins +1 | Top | 9-35 | Win | 100 | 116 h 9 m | Show |
12-03-17 | Chiefs -3 v. Jets | Top | 31-38 | Loss | -120 | 116 h 9 m | Show |
11-26-17 | Packers +14 v. Steelers | Top | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 55 h 35 m | Show |
11-26-17 | Saints +2.5 v. Rams | Top | 20-26 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 40 m | Show |
11-26-17 | Bills v. Chiefs -9.5 | Top | 16-10 | Loss | -105 | 47 h 15 m | Show |
11-26-17 | Panthers -5 v. Jets | Top | 35-27 | Win | 100 | 47 h 15 m | Show |
11-23-17 | Chargers v. Cowboys +1 | Top | 28-6 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 58 m | Show |
11-23-17 | Vikings -3 v. Lions | Top | 30-23 | Win | 100 | 49 h 58 m | Show |
11-20-17 | Falcons v. Seahawks -3 | Top | 34-31 | Loss | -100 | 152 h 9 m | Show |
11-19-17 | Eagles v. Cowboys +3.5 | Top | 37-9 | Loss | -110 | 128 h 59 m | Show |
11-19-17 | Bills +4.5 v. Chargers | Top | 24-54 | Loss | -110 | 124 h 44 m | Show |
11-19-17 | Redskins +9 v. Saints | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 121 h 42 m | Show |
11-12-17 | Patriots -7.5 v. Broncos | Top | 41-16 | Win | 101 | 54 h 56 m | Show |
11-12-17 | Giants v. 49ers +3 | Top | 21-31 | Win | 100 | 50 h 51 m | Show |
11-12-17 | Packers +6 v. Bears | Top | 23-16 | Win | 100 | 46 h 16 m | Show |
11-09-17 | Seahawks -5.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 22-16 | Win | 100 | 31 h 41 m | Show |
11-06-17 | Lions v. Packers +3 | Top | 30-17 | Loss | -125 | 59 h 34 m | Show |
11-05-17 | Redskins v. Seahawks -7 | Top | 17-14 | Loss | -113 | 95 h 14 m | Show |
11-05-17 | Falcons +1.5 v. Panthers | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -110 | 92 h 60 m | Show |
11-05-17 | Rams v. Giants +4 | Top | 51-17 | Loss | -115 | 92 h 59 m | Show |
10-30-17 | Broncos +7.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 19-29 | Loss | -115 | 127 h 59 m | Show |
10-29-17 | Steelers -2.5 v. Lions | Top | 20-15 | Win | 100 | 103 h 60 m | Show |
10-29-17 | Falcons -4 v. Jets | Top | 25-20 | Win | 100 | 96 h 6 m | Show |
10-29-17 | Vikings v. Browns +9.5 | Top | 33-16 | Loss | -105 | 93 h 47 m | Show |
10-23-17 | Redskins v. Eagles -4 | Top | 24-34 | Win | 100 | 25 h 42 m | Show |
10-22-17 | Ravens +6 v. Vikings | Top | 16-24 | Loss | -115 | 48 h 32 m | Show |
10-19-17 | Chiefs v. Raiders +3 | Top | 30-31 | Win | 100 | 30 h 49 m | Show |
10-16-17 | Colts v. Titans -7.5 | Top | 22-36 | Win | 100 | 14 h 41 m | Show |
10-15-17 | Bucs v. Cardinals +2 | Top | 33-38 | Win | 100 | 45 h 28 m | Show |
10-15-17 | Rams v. Jaguars -2.5 | Top | 27-17 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 28 m | Show |
10-15-17 | Browns +10 v. Texans | Top | 17-33 | Loss | -120 | 42 h 24 m | Show |
10-15-17 | Lions v. Saints -4 | Top | 38-52 | Win | 100 | 42 h 24 m | Show |
10-15-17 | Bears +7 v. Ravens | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 42 h 24 m | Show |
10-12-17 | Eagles v. Panthers -3 | Top | 28-23 | Loss | -125 | 29 h 10 m | Show |
10-08-17 | Seahawks +1.5 v. Rams | Top | 16-10 | Win | 100 | 30 h 17 m | Show |
10-08-17 | Jets v. Browns +1 | Top | 17-14 | Loss | -115 | 73 h 31 m | Show |
10-08-17 | Bills v. Bengals -3 | Top | 16-20 | Win | 100 | 73 h 30 m | Show |
10-08-17 | Panthers +3 v. Lions | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 72 h 30 m | Show |
10-02-17 | Redskins +7.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 20-29 | Loss | -140 | 32 h 22 m | Show |
10-01-17 | Raiders +3 v. Broncos | Top | 10-16 | Loss | -116 | 96 h 58 m | Show |
10-01-17 | Eagles v. Chargers | Top | 26-24 | Loss | -115 | 95 h 28 m | Show |
10-01-17 | Bengals v. Browns +3.5 | Top | 31-7 | Loss | -120 | 92 h 24 m | Show |
10-01-17 | Titans -1.5 v. Texans | Top | 14-57 | Loss | -110 | 92 h 24 m | Show |
10-01-17 | Rams +6.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 35-30 | Win | 100 | 46 h 49 m | Show |
09-28-17 | Bears v. Packers -7 | Top | 14-35 | Win | 100 | 29 h 53 m | Show |
09-25-17 | Cowboys v. Cardinals +3.5 | Top | 28-17 | Loss | -120 | 21 h 54 m | Show |
09-24-17 | Chiefs v. Chargers +3 | Top | 24-10 | Loss | -100 | 99 h 30 m | Show |
09-24-17 | Bengals +10 v. Packers | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 99 h 30 m | Show |
09-24-17 | Dolphins v. Jets +6 | Top | 6-20 | Win | 100 | 96 h 6 m | Show |
09-24-17 | Steelers v. Bears +8.5 | Top | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 96 h 5 m | Show |
09-24-17 | Giants +6 v. Eagles | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 96 h 5 m | Show |
09-21-17 | Rams -2.5 v. 49ers | Top | 41-39 | Loss | -114 | 25 h 54 m | Show |
09-18-17 | Lions v. Giants -3 | Top | 24-10 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 56 m | Show |