Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-17-17 | Packers +3 v. Falcons | Top | 23-34 | Loss | -125 | 102 h 36 m | Show |
8* Green Bay (8:25 ET): Both of these teams won in Week 1, but it wasn't easy. It never is when Atlanta plays outdoors, but realistically they could have lost outright to the Bears as a goal line stand was required to preserve a 23-17 victory. I was on the dog there and they covered. Green Bay also had a somewhat ugly win, but at least they had the "excuse" of facing Seattle. All things considered, beating the Seahawks 17-9 is no small achievement. To me, the better team is getting points in this matchup. Yes, I remember what happened when these teams met in LY's NFC Championship Game (I was on Atlanta) as the Falcons raced out to a 31-0 advantage. But that will only serve to motivate a Packers team that is 7-2 ATS otherwise the L2 yrs as an underdog. Home teams tend to struggle their first couple seasons in a new stadium, so I'm taking the points. That NFC Championship Game loss is the ONLY time Aaron Rodgers and company have been beaten since Thanksgiving. The Pack are 9-1 L10 games (reg season & playoffs) and I've got them as the favorite in the NFC this season. Yes, they clearly benefited from a terrible block in the back call last week, not to mention a Russell Wilson turnover inside the 5-yard line. But I was impressed w/ how the defense played and think it will be a much different story here compared to what we saw last January in Atlanta. Not allowing a touchdown is pretty impressive (unless you're playing the Bengals!) and the Pack held Seattle to just 225 total yds last week. They finished w/ a 26-12 edge in first downs, so it really was a pretty dominant performance when you break it down. With the addition of Davon House, the GB secondary is a lot better equipped to handle Atlanta's passing attack this go around. Playing outdoors is a conveinent excuse for the Falcons offense last week, but the bottom line is I find it impossible to believe they'll be matching LY's production. OC Kyle Shanahan has moved on and there's just some natural regression that should take hold. Consider that Atlanta had just 13 pts heading into the fourth quarter last week. They were out-first downed and 88 of their 372 total yds came on one crucial TD pass. Interestingly, the Falcons are 0-3 ATS their last three times as a home favorite of three points or less, losing two of the games outright. They're just 8-14 ATS the L22 times they've been favored overall. 8* Green Bay |
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09-17-17 | 49ers +14 v. Seahawks | Top | 9-12 | Win | 100 | 97 h 26 m | Show |
10* San Francisco (4:25 ET): There's an old adage that you can "throw the records out" when it comes to a division rivalry, but in the case of Seahawks-49ers things have grown rather one-sided since Jim Harbaugh bolted from the Bay Area. San Francisco has not beaten this NFC West rival going back to 2013, a span of seven meetings. Worse yet, they are just 1-10 ATS the L11 matchups w/ that one cover coming in LY's final meeting when they were double digit dogs. The number is even more freindly this go around though, at two touchdowns, and given Seattle's offensive issues that makes it a play for me. Double digit dogs in divisional games are 105-75 ATS going back to 2005. Kyle Shanahan is the third HC in as many years for the 49ers. There's plenty of work to be done here after the failed regimes of Jim Tomsula (barf!) and Chip Kelly. Shanahan rightfully earned kudos for the work he's done as OC at Washington and Atlanta, particuarly the latter, but as we saw last week, the talent here isn't even close to what he had last year w/ the Falcons. The Niners lost 23-3 at home to Carolina, but let's note that total yardage was pretty even (287-217). The defense received a huge blow when rookie Reuben Foster was carted off w/ an ankle injury. Him being out for a month is not good, but the Niners are facing a weaker offense this week, one that has maybe the worst line in all of football. 49ers DC Robert Saleh served under Pete Carroll on the Seattle staff previously, so he's familiar w/ their schemes and then there's this issue w/ GM John Lynch having talked strategy extensively w/ Carroll before taking his current job (previously served as an analyst w/ FOX). Like San Francisco, Seattle failed to score an offensive touchdown last week. They lost 17-9 at Green Bay, a game that swung on a bogus block in the back call after an interception (would have been a pick-six for the Seahawks) and an ejection of DB Jeremy Lane. Then there was a Russell Wilson turnover inside their own five, setting up an easy Packers' TD. There's no shame in losing at Lambeau, but the Seahawks didn't look particularly good in doing it. With the overwhelming expectation that Seattle will bounce back in this spot, we're getting an inflated line. I'm expecting a relatively low scoring game, which makes taking the double digit number a logical choice. 10* San Francisco |
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09-17-17 | Bears +7 v. Bucs | Top | 7-29 | Loss | -105 | 94 h 2 m | Show |
8* Chicago (1:00 ET): Like Cleveland, the Bears covered for me in a Week 1 SU loss. Even more so than Cleveland, they had a legit shot at taking the game outright. Already covering (were +6.5) and down 27-21, Chicago had the ball 1st and goal at the 5-yd line. Four plays later, the game was over and not in their favor (still got the cash). As distressing a loss as that must be for Bears' players and fans alike, I'm expecting them to come back w/ an even better effort this week. Yes, Mike Glennon may just be keeping "the seat warm" for rookie Mitchell Trubisky, but the former played reasonably well last week, only to be letdown by his receivers. I'm really encouraged by what I saw in the running game as rookie Tarik Cohen and Jordan Howard are a dynamic pair. Take the points here. Due to Hurricane Irma, this will be the first game for the Bucs. Having a game under their belt is a nice edge to have if you're Chicago. Tampa Bay comes into 2017 w/ much fanfare as a trendy "darkhorse" pick, but I'm not buying into it. They were favored only THREE times all of last year, so this spread is a noticeable jump for them. They were #1 in the league in net upsets a year ago (+6!), so it's fair to label them as an overachiever. At no point last year were the Bucs favored by more than 3.5 points and the game that was the highwater mark saw them lose outright at home to the Rams. One could point to the situation surrounding Irma as a sort of "rallying cry," but a similar thing did Houston no favors last week. The Bears were one of two teams that didn't win a single road game last year (Browns), but Tampa Bay is just 2-8 ATS the L10 times it has been a home favorite. Chicago is pegged as one of my more improved teams in the league this year as they deserved far better than LY's 3-13 SU finish based on the notion they actually outgained their opponents ranked 7th (!) in yards per play differential. John Fox has a history of turning around defenses and this should finally be the year with this one. As for the Bucs, they ranked 27th in YPG differential a year ago and 29th in YPP differential. They were outscored despite their 9-7 SU record. This game has all the makings of an outright upset in my eyes. 8* Chicago |
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09-17-17 | Browns +8.5 v. Ravens | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -110 | 94 h 2 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (1:00 ET): The Browns cashed for me last week, scoring a late TD to sneak within the number against Pittsburgh. One could actually argue that the Browns, one year removed from a 1-15 SU season, actually outplayed the Steelers after having a punt blocked (and returned for a TD) on their opening drive. They were outgained only 290-237 and were it not for the efforts of the best WR in the game (Antonio Brown), one can wonder just how that game would have played out. I thought rookie QB DeShone Kizer played well enough. I do worry here about him facing a defense that just posted a shutout on the road, but after watching the Bengals Thursday, it appears as if lots of defenses are going to shut down Cincinnati this year. In an early season divisional tilt, taking this many points is the way to go. Baltimore may have won 20-0 in Week 1, but their offense lacks the explosiveness required to consistently win by such a margin. They were gifted FIVE turnovers by Andy Dalton, one of them setting them up at the Bengals 2-yd line. That obviously resulted in a touchdown for the Ravens, but other than that, they scored only 13 pts the rest of the game. Unlike Pittsburgh, there's no Antonio Brown to throw to with this offense. The contract of Joe Flacco, earned right after the Super Bowl win four years ago, has become somewhat of an "albatross" as it's prevented the front office from adding the necessary pieces to make this a championship contender. Danny Woodhead was supposed to help this year, but he's already landed on the IR. Getting back to my initial point about the lack of explosiveness making it difficult to cover the pointspread, Baltimore is just 5-10 ATS as a favorite the L2 seasons, including 2-6 when laying 3.5 to 9.5 pts. Cleveland was the worst team in the league a year ago - both SU and ATS - but they're improved here in 2017 and we can use last year's results to our advantage. Because they covered only three games last year, the numbers - at least early on in the season - will be drastically inflated. The Browns did lose here in Baltimore 28-7 last year (pointspread was similar), but that was later in the year when the team had essentially already given up. In the season's first meeting, the Browns held a 20-2 lead before losing by only five. That 28-7 finish was the only time in the last eight meetings that Baltimore won by more than 10 points. Five of the last seven have been decided by six points or less. Flacco completed only nine passes for 121 yds last week and remember he missed all of training camp. 8* Cleveland |
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09-17-17 | Bills +7 v. Panthers | Top | 3-9 | Win | 100 | 94 h 2 m | Show |
8* Buffalo (1:00 ET): Many will simply write it off as "they were playing the Jets," but Buffalo really dominated last week w/ a 408-214 edge in total yards. Sure, they only won 21-12, but that final score could have been a lot more lopsided were it not for a Tyrod Taylor INT in the endzone early in the game. I'm on the record as saying the Bills will win more games this year than people think. Yes, several moves were made late in the offseason that seemed to signal an eye on the future, rather than the present. But this was a better team last year than people remember and they can run the ball (#1 in the league LY!) effectively. Favored big for a second week in a row, Carolina is vulnerable in this spot. Take the points. The Panthers did win their season opener, 23-3, but it was against San Francisco and QB Cam Newton did not look sharp. Maybe you could attribute that to "rust" as the former MVP hardly played at all (just two pass attempts) in the preseason. But his shoulder certainly didn't seem to be right either as he missed a lot of throws he should have completed w/ relative ease. While I'm high on Carolina having a bounce back year in 2017, I remain steadfast that if they do, they'll win their fair share of close games, something they did a ton of two years ago (went 15-1 and made the Super Bowl) but not last year (finished 6-10). The offense gained only 287 yards last week and only won big because they were facing one of the more anemic teams in the league. There's a storyline here as Bills HC Sean McDermott previously served as Panthers' defensive coordinator. So he has some familiarity on what his team will be seeing come Sunday. Also, the Bills new GM (Brandon Beane) comes by way of Carolina. Buffalo has won four of its last five games vs. NFC teams and is 2-0 SU all-time in Carolina. Granted, that may not mean much in the grand scheme of things, but I believe blowing this Buffalo team out is going to be easier said than done this year. The Bills actually outscored opponents last year (overlooked!). LeSean McCoy is a 'go' here and I believe we'll be seeing a very close game that could go either way. 8* Buffalo |
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09-17-17 | Patriots v. Saints +7 | Top | 36-20 | Loss | -110 | 94 h 2 m | Show |
8* New Orleans (1:00 ET): The expectation here will be that, off a loss, New England "can't lose." Especially since they've had so much time to prepare for Wk 2 (played Thurs night Wk 1) while New Orleans is working on a short week after being embarrassed at Minnesota on Monday Night Football. But not so fast. Let's not forget the tremendous homefield advantage that the Saints have enjoyed through the years here at Mercedes Benz Superdome. Even coming off three straight 7-9 (SU) seasons, it's rare to find them in this price range. In fact, they are a perfect 4-0 ATS as a home dog of any kind the L3 seasons w/ three outright upsets, Seattle among them. Dare I say - almost never - are they collecting this many points. The only time in the last 10 years Drew Brees has been a dog of more than a field goal at home was two years ago against the unbeaten Panthers and he covered that game, losing by only three in typical Saints fashion (lost 41-38). History says not to be worried about the short week either as the Saints are 2-0 SU/ATS the previous two seasons after playing on MNF. I'll be taking the points here. So much for that undefeated season, huh? Any such talk concerning the Patriots (or any other team for that matter) is just ludicrous and the defending SB champs found that out the hard way in Wk 1, losing 42-27 at home to the suddenly explosive Chiefs. It certainly appeared that the Pats had the game in hand, up 17-7 w/ less than three minutes to go in the 1H. But from that point onward, KC dominated, outgaining the Pats 449-149 and outscoring them 21-0 in the 4Q. Defensively, New England clearly has a problem if Dont'a Hightower can't go. Him leaving the game w/ a knee injury is what really opened things up for the KC offense. No one has ever accused Alex Smith of being "explosive" before, so imagine what Brees - in his building - could do to a Hightower-less defense. On offense, Tom Brady completed only 16 passes last week. The Saints defense has never been good, and led Vikings QB Sam Bradford complete 27 of 32 passes Monday night, but I still look for the home dog to be able to trade scores in this one. Brees and the offense had four red zone trips last week, but were unable to come away w/ a single TD in any of them, instead settling for 4 FGs. So it's not as if they failed to move the ball. Converting those field goals into touchdowns would have gone a long way last week and was probably the difference between winning and losing. This has always been a very good home team and New England is probably due to continue "giving some back" after it went 16-3 ATS last season. This spread was a couple points lower prior to the Saints losing on MNF. 8* New Orleans |
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09-11-17 | Chargers +3.5 v. Broncos | Top | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 1814 h 54 m | Show |
10* LA Chargers (10:20 ET): I know I've said this before (last year!), but look for the Chargers to be the most improved team in the league this season. The lack of luck when it comes to injuries and record in close games eventually has to turn the other way and with a better roster, new coach and new home, 2017 should (finally) be the year. Last year's team had to deal with the incompetent Mike McCoy at the helm, rumors swirling about the state of the franchise (killing any chance of home field advantage) and a shocking amount of late game ineptitude (six blown 4Q leads!). On top of all that, it seemed as if a new player was lost to injury every week. Consider that despite going 5-11 straight up, the Chargers were only outscored by 13 points over the course of the entire season! They are the better team Monday night and I will take the points. While the Chargers are a lock for improvement (in my eyes), the Broncos are a team set for decline. They too have a new HC (Vance Johnson), but it's not an ideal situation to be stepping into. The QB situation is one of the worst in the league as Trevor Siemian is again the starter because Paxton Lynch couldn't beat him out in the preseason (bad sign). The defense that carried this team to the Super Bowl two years ago and was again tops in the league last year, is now older and missing key personnel. Plus, the defection of ace coordinator Wade Phillips (to the Rams) will be felt throughout the year, especially as the defense begins to decline. The release of safety TJ Ward right before the start of the regular season was a bit puzzling, especially after all the injuries that have been suffered on this side of the ball during training camp, most notably pass-rusher Shane Ray. Back to the offense, the subpar Siemian is surrounded by a lot of subpar talent, whether you want to talk about the receivers, running game or offensive line. I like the Chargers' offense quite a bit coming into the year, provided it can stay healthy. Philip Rivers remains the best QB in the AFC West and has a host of targets to throw the ball to this year. His top WR Keenan Allen was lost for the year in Week 1 LY in the midst of a monster game. The defense brings back all but one starter from 2016 and a full year of Joey Bosa is definitely a good thing. He and Melvin Ingram are going to be one of the top pass rushing duos is the league. Both starting corners - Jason Verrett and Casey Heyward - are solid. There are talented players at every level of the Los Angeles (weird to write that!) defense. Anthony Lynn is a 1st time HC, but has to excellent coordinators to lean on in Ken Wisenhunt and Gus Bradley, both of whom are former HC's themselves. Again, I go back to how the team's luck is bound to change this year. Despite winning only nine games the past two seasons, the Chargers have actually outgained opponents both years! They are also 21-11-1 ATS L33 as a road underdog. 10* LA Chargers |
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09-11-17 | Saints v. Vikings -3 | Top | 19-29 | Win | 100 | 21 h 18 m | Show |
8* Minnesota (7:10 ET): The Vikings have lost four straight times to the Saints, but three of those came at the Mercedes Benz Superdome (one a NFC Champ Game) while the other took place in 2011, a season in which the Vikes finished 3-13 SU. I expect things to go differently in this year's season opener, however, as not only is the game being played at U.S. Bank Stadium, but they'll be able to take advantage of a pourous New Orleans defense which consistently ranks at or near the bottom of the league, year after year. Not only does Minnesota have the better defense in this matchup, they have the better running back as well. Yes, the return of Adrian Peterson (now a Saint) will draw all the headlines here. But Minnesota chose wisely in dumping the aging back and selecting Dalvin Cook (out of Florida State) in the 1st round. Lay the number w/ the short home fave here. The Vikings defense won't be the best on the field tonight simply by default. Rather, this group allowed just 314.9 YPG a year ago (3rd fewest) and returns virtually every key starter from that group (including five pro bowlers). As for the Saints' defense, well, consider that last year's ranking of 27th (in yards allowed) was considered "improvement." The Saints "all offense, no defense" approach has brought nothing but mediocre results the last several seasons (three straight 7-9 SU finishes) and the ceiling here feels as low as it's ever been in the Drew Brees/Sean Payton era. It's damn shame that New Orleans has ended up w/ a losing record four of the last five seasons, despite finishing top five on offense every one of those seasons. Consider that no other team w/ a top five offense during that time missed that playoffs in that individual season. I think people forget the Vikings opened 5-0 SU last season before limping to a 3-8 finish. QB Sam Bradford set a single-season record for completion percentage, and while it was clearly a byproduct of his propensity for checkdowns, he should have a big night against this Saints defense. Vikings HC Mike Zimmer started his career by covering 28 of his first 37 games (4-7 ATS L11). New Orleans actually went 10-6 at the pay window last year, but a lot of that had to do w/ a shocking lack of respect by the oddsmakers for them at home. Only three times last year were they favored by more than a field goal, once on the road. Yes, they're the dog here, but it's a short number and this has always been a "different team" outside of the Superdome. Rumors surrounding Brees' future w/ the team are now swirling. I'm by no means "all in" on the Vikings for 2017, but I'm higher on them than the Saints and that leads to tonight's call. 8* Minnesota |
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09-10-17 | Panthers v. 49ers +6 | Top | 23-3 | Loss | -105 | 221 h 46 m | Show |
8* San Francisco (4:25 ET): This figures to be an unpopular play, but coming off a season in which it went 2-14 SU and 4-11-1 ATS, there's only one way to go for the Niners. Granted, I happen to have Carolina as one of the most improved teams in the league this year. But that should come about as a result of better fortune in close games, something that killed them in 2016 as they went 2-6 SU in games decided by seven points or less. Remember that two years ago, Cam Newton was MVP, the Panthers went 15-1 SU and made it all the way to the Super Bowl. Last year's decline was as easy to predict as this year's improvement, but all that being said I don't see this being the rout that the public seems to think it will end up being. The 49ers' improvement will be more incremental and while it's often dangerous to predict a "close loss," that is precisely what I'll do here. Sunday marks the home debut of new Niners' HC Kyle Shanahan. Needless to say, the offense he inherits will be nowhere near what he had to work with LY in Atlanta. But after leading productive offenses in two previous stops as OC (Atlanta & Washington), I expect Shanahan will have something "up his sleeve" for his HC debut. Keep in mind that the likes of RG3, Matt Schaub and Rex Grossman have all had career years under Shanahan. So there's hope for the 49ers' Brian Hoyer, who has shown to be an average NFL QB at previous stops w/ worse coaching. There's a lot of youth on the defensive side of the ball, but that unit will be better than last year. This team, despite a lack of success, has gone a respectable 7-7 ATS as a home dog. This is a lot of points to getting in Week 1. Cam Newton threw only two passes in the preseason, so the potential for a slow start by the Panthers is there. The defense has a new coordinator as Sean McDermott bolted to become the head coach at Buffalo. Under Ron Rivera, the Panthers are just 7-10 ATS as road favorites. They are the classic "public side" here in Week 1 and figure to be the most popular bet on Sunday. That creates the opportunity to fade as this number was among the biggest movers from the time it opened over the summer. The Niners also had poor luck in close games last year, going 1-5 SU. A closer than expected game is what I expect here as SF should stay within this number. Carolina was just 2-6 SU on the road last year, giving up 28.4 PPG, and remember that Shanahan knows this defense from his time in Atlanta. 8* San Francisco |
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09-10-17 | Jaguars +4.5 v. Texans | Top | 29-7 | Win | 100 | 1781 h 35 m | Show |
8* Jacksonville (1:00 ET): For whatever reason, some bettors seem a lot more confident now in Houston than they did over the summer. This despite the same two QB's who were always expected to start here, will in fact be out on the field Sunday. That would be Tom Savage and Blake Bortles, which isn't exactly Brady vs. Manning. The Texans have won the AFC South each of the last two seasons w/ less than stellar QB play, but Savage represents the "bottom of the barrel" and it's probably not long before he gives way to rookie DeShaun Watson out of Clemson. As for Bortles, he too is very much on a short leash here after a rocky preseason. But he's really no different now than he was last year. The key here is I expect the Jacksonville team to be much improved this year while Houston should regress significantly. Take the points. The Jaguars went 3-13 SU last year and earned themselves another top four draft choice (chose RB Leonard Fournette out of LSU). Fournette should make Bortles' job easier as the third-year QB has never had any coherent running game to speak of in his pro career. This Jags offense was wildly overrated coming into last year (because of racking of lots of yardage in "garbage time" the year prior) and so was the team (favored only three times). But quietly, former HC Gus Bradley left behind a pretty great defense. The Jags were sixth in yards allowed last year (322 per game) and could be even better this season. Despite the 3-13 SU record, this team actually outgained its opponents LY (+13 YPG), but unfortunately blew five 4Q leads and suffered eight losses by a TD or less, six of those coming in the 1-10 finish. You have to figure they'll have better luck this year. Despite this franchise's checkered history, they've gone 24-13 ATS L37 as a road dog and I like them in that scenario here. We talked a bit about Jacksonville's defense, so what about Houston's? Well, everyone expects the Texans to have one of the stop units in the league this year after they led the league in fewest yards allowed last year, plus they get a healthy JJ Watt back. But I say not so fast. I'm calling for a drop in the defensive ranking here and the offense should drag the overall team down. Consider for a moment that the Texans scored a league-low 23 TDs last year and now must endure a downgrade at QB. Last year's top draft choice, WR Will Fuller, will miss significant time. Therefore, DeAndre Hopkins will again be the victim of double-teams and figures to have another disappointing season. The Texans were perhaps the league's "luckiest" team a year ago as they finished 9-7 despite being outscored by 49 points. All but one of their wins came by a TD or less. They won't be that lucky again in 2017, mark my words. This is a prime candidate to regress severely. Houston has swept Jacksonville each of the last three seasons (6-0 SU), but the two wins last year came by a total of four points. I expect the Jags to serve up some revenge in Wk 1. 8* Jacksonville |
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09-10-17 | Eagles +2.5 v. Redskins | Top | 30-17 | Win | 100 | 1781 h 35 m | Show |
8* Philadelphia (1:00 ET): The spread may have flipped on this game (Eagles could kick off as the favorite), but my read on the matchup is unchanged. Philly was a much better team last year than they're 7-9 SU record showed. Case in point, they outscored the opposition by 36 points, which was more than the margin (+26) put forth by the 11-5 Giants. They were foiled by a 1-6 SU mark in close games (those decided by 7 pts or less), two of those coming at the hands of the division rival Redskins, against whom they'll open this season. In breaking down this Week 1 matchup, I was somewhat stunned to find that Washington has not only won, but also covered each of the last SIX meetings! That doesn't make a lot of sense to me as over the L3 seasons, the Skins have most certainly NOT been substantially better than the Eagles. Note that five of the wins have come by a TD or less. It won't be a blowout, but expect the road team to come in and win here in Wk 1. Now in his second year as a pro, Eagles QB Carson Wentz has some new weapons to work with. Alshon Jeffrey and Torrey Smith are his new receivers and while both are not "spring chickens," that duo certainly represents an upgrade over who Wentz threw the ball to last season. Like almost every other team in the league, the Eagles will use a "running back by committee" approach, which is fine because they have one of the better O-line's in the league, especially when Lane Johnson is in there. Johnson missed 10 games LY (suspended) and the team suffered for it. On the other side of the ball, the Eagles' defense should be one of the best in the league under coordinator Jim Schwartz. They added Ronald Darby, Derek Barnett and Timmy Jernigan to an already impressive cast of characters. Washington is still stuck w/ Kirk Cousins at QB for at least another year. Actually, "stuck" may be a poor word choice as Cousins is better than you think as was the 'Skins offense a season ago. But unlike Wentz, Cousins' receiving corps will undoubtedly be weaker in '17 as Terelle Pryor (came over from Cleveland) is the new #1 and Josh Doctson (missed rookie year due to injury) is the other starter. They must replace DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon. Cousins also lost his OC, Sean McVay, who took the head coaching job in LA. On defense, there's five new starters here, three of them in front seven. Unlike Philadelphia, I'm not sure I'd call the majority of them "upgrades." The front office in D.C. also remains in complete disarray as fmr GM Scott McCloughan is gone. That turmoil can trickle down onto the field and we've seen that before w/ this franchise. This is the Eagles' year to beat the Redskins. 8* Philadelphia |
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09-10-17 | Steelers v. Browns +9 | Top | 21-18 | Win | 100 | 1781 h 35 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (1:00 ET): The Browns were the worst team in the league last year (1-15 SU) and by a wide margin. In fact, they were only able to even cover a measley three games (3-12-1 ATS), giving them the dubious distinction of also being the league's worst pointspread team as well. They were outscored by an average of 11.75 points per game. This year's team will be better, if only incrementally, simply for the reason they can't be any worse. As you can tell, the market is still being quite pessimisstic about them due to getting burned so many times last season. The opponent is a familiar one (Pittsburgh) that they have had little to no success against since rejoining the league in 1999. Only four times since 2001 have the Browns beaten the Steelers and just one of those has come in the past nine meetings. But, opening the season at home, the points are plentiful here and I have to take them thinking Cleveland WILL be more competitive in '17. Pittsburgh is again projected to be the 2nd best team in the AFC, behind New England. If their talented core of skill players (Roethlisberger, Bell, Brown) can all remain healthy, then there's no reason to think the Steelers won't earn the conference's second bye. They are the clear favorites in the AFC North, if for no other reason than there's no obvious contender to their throne. But there are some holes we can poke here in the Steel City. The team's defense hasn't ranked higher than 12th in yards allowed since 2012 (when they were #1). Le'Veon Bell held out the entire preseason and thus may not be in "game shape" here. Also, this team has a strange prediliction of playing poorly on the road at least one time per year. Last year, it was a 34-3 stinker at Philadelphia and 30-15 loss at Miami. To stay competitive here, Cleveland will need to score points (obviously!). The offense will be led by a rookie QB (DeShone Kizer) making his 1st career start, but the key to the Browns' improvement this year will be him operating behind what is legitimately one of the league's best offensive line. Cleveland did cover the spread the spread in Pittsburgh last year, even if it was Week 17 against backups. But a big key here is the Steelers are just 3-8 ATS as road favorites of more than a touchdown under Tomlin. At worst, the backdoor should be open late here and I feel this is way too large of a spread for Week 1, even against the lowly Browns. 8* Cleveland |
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09-10-17 | Falcons v. Bears +7.5 | Top | 23-17 | Win | 100 | 217 h 22 m | Show |
10* Chicago (1:00 ET): The Falcons are coming off a season where they went to the Super Bowl (and probably should have won it!) while the Bears went 3-13 SU and were among the very worst teams in the league. As a result, we have a large road favorite for Week 1, and in my opinion one that's too large. I'm a believer that that Atlanta may very well be afflicted by a "Super Bowl hangover" (did go 0-4 SU in preseason) and there are some very real, tangible factors pointing towards a decline for 2017. They lost their offensive coordinator (Kyle Shanahan) and will be moving to a new stadium, which can contribute to a lessening of home field advantage for the first couple seasons (adjustment for home team too!). As for this game, it's outdoors and I feel there's no way Matt Ryan and the offense will be as prolific this year as they were last. Take the points. Chicago, believe it or not, is a team that I feel will be much improved in 2017. Yes, it's a little bit discouraging that the coaching staff has elected to go w/ Mike Glennon as the Wk 1 starter as opposed to rookie Mitchell Trubisky, who clearly has the higher upside. But regardless of which is under center, the Bears should get improved play compared to what they had last year w/ the likes of Brian Hoyer, Matt Barkley, David Fales and Jay Cutler. Last year's team was also the most injured in the league. They figure to get better luck in that department this season. They also got killed by a -20 turnover margin in 2016. Turnover margin tends to fluctuate wildly from year to year, so the Bears can expect better luck there as well. John Fox typically builds a great defense wherever he goes, but that has yet to happen here in the Windy City. Perhaps 2017 is the year that changes as they've got a great looking front seven and a pair of solid safeties. The offense will be aided by a strong running game (Jordan Howard) operating behind a good offensive line. The Bears actually ranked middle of the road on both offense and defense (15th in both) last year, so they played better than the record. They were 1-6 SU in games decided by six pts or less. As for Atlanta, I'm interested to see how the offense performs now that Kyle Shanahan has moved on. There's also the isssue that this franchise rarely puts together B2B good seasons and the loss in last year's Super Bowl has to be sticking with them. This game being on grass (one of the worst fields in the league no less) does them no favors as they're used to the fast track that the old Georgia Dome and new Mercedes Benz Stadium will provide. The Bears are 4-1 ATS the L2 seasons as a home dog of +3.5 to +7 and this spread just seems a little "rich" to me considering it is the reg season opener. 10* Chicago |
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02-05-17 | Patriots v. Falcons +3 | Top | 34-28 | Loss | -100 | 149 h 58 m | Show |
10* Atlanta (6:30 ET): For once, we have actually have the two best teams in the league in the Super Bowl. Both the Patriots and Falcons have rolled in getting here, producing the league's two biggest scoring differentials in the regular season and then a pair of playoff routs. New England is an incredible 15-3 ATS and has lost only one time since Tom Brady returned to the lineup in Week 5. They essentially drew a "double bye" into the AFC Championship Game as not only were they off for the Wild Card Round, but Houston was simply no match in the Divisional Round. Then, in the AFC Championship Game, they do what they always do - and that's blowout Pittsburgh. Atlanta, whose offense leads the league at 34.4 PPG, blew through both Seattle and Green Bay w/ incredible ease in the NFC side of the draw. They beat those two foes by a combined 39 points, scoring almost at will. While I agree the Falcons should be underdogs here, I believe getting a full field goal w/ this offense is too good to pass up. I'll take the points. I was on Atlanta in both playoff wins, so perhaps I'm a bit biased. But, man, they sure did make it look easy against two top tier opponents. Granted, Seattle was w/o Earl Thomas, but Matt Ryan & company shredded what has long considered to be one of the top defenses in the league. In the NFC Championship Game, Green Bay came in as hot as any team in the league. The Falcons destroyed them in a game that was never really close. Two plays into the second half, they'd scored 31 points and from there, pretty much coasted. If anything, their 493 total yds gained UNDERSELLS the job they did. This is an offense that averaged 6.7 yards per play during the regular season w/ the highest number of 20+ yd plays as well. Also, the Falcons' YPP differential of +1.1 was by far and away the best in the league. It was a half yard better than the #2 team in that category. While that may not sound like much, that gap was larger than the #2 and #12 team. New England's defense comes in ranked #1 in the league in scoring, but they have faced nothing like Ryan this season. In fact, they have faced one of the weakest slates of QB's I have seen in some time. Prior to facing Ben Roethlisberger in the AFC Championship Game, these were the last eight QB's they'd faced: Colin Kaepernick, Ryan Fitzpatrick (twice), Jared Goff, Joe Flacco, Trevor Siemian and Matt Moore. While the Pats offense is no "chopped liver," they are not as prolific as Atlanta and I look for the Falcons to bring a ton of pressure on Super Sunday. Atlanta's defense has been a lot better in the two playoff games and was able to shutdown Aaron Rodgers by bringing pressure. They can do the same to Tom Brady. I don't think that "having been here before" is that big of an edge for the Pats, whose largest SB margin of victory is four points in a game they probably should have lost (Seattle). 10* Atlanta |
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01-22-17 | Packers v. Falcons -4 | Top | 21-44 | Win | 100 | 74 h 56 m | Show |
10* Atlanta (3:00 ET): If it's true that "defense wins championships, either a) someone forgot to tell the Packers and Falcons or b) these two are in some real trouble. This year's NFC Championship Game has the highest total for a playoff game ever and the second highest total for any NFL game - ever! The number is absolutely merited too considering Green Bay has scored 30 or more points in six consecutive contests and Atlanta has done the same in five straight (actually 33 or more). So, more than likely, one side will simply have to outscore the other and I believe (at home, in the Dome), it's going to be the Falcons. This team was my *10* Game of the Month last week and I was more than pleased w/ what I saw. Their #1 ranked offense made Seattle look as bad as I've seen in the Russell Wilson-era. I think people don't realize just how good this offense is. Lay the points. Falcons QB Matt Ryan is my choice for MVP. Granted, he'd never covered a playoff game in his career until last week. But, this is the best team - specifically offense - he's had to work with. For the year, Atlanta averages 33.9 PPG (tops in the league) and the number obviously goes up here in the Georgia Dome. Since losing here in Week 1 to Tampa Bay, there hasn't been a home game since where Ryan and company didn't score at least 30 points. They've scored 36 or more the previous four here. Green Bay's upset of Dallas last week was actually Atlanta's gain now that they get another home game. What a break! The big story of the 24 hours leading up to this game is the reported flu bug that's hit the Green Bay locker room. Clearly, it couldn't have come at a worse time and QB Aaron Rodgers is one of those affected. Rodgers will obviously still play, but who he'll be throwing to is a different matter. The Packers' receiving corps is just ravaged right now due to injury. Three receivers, Jordy Nelson the most notable, are questionable at best for Sunday. Both Davante Adams and Geronimo Allen suffered injuries LW in Dallas. Whereas Atlanta essentially dominated their divisional round matchup, it felt as if Green Bay was fortunate to get out to such a big lead and hold on. In a game where offense clearly matters, the Packers coming into the Georgia Dome short-handed is a big deal. While neither team has a good defense, Atlanta's is slightly better. Green Bay ranking 31st out of 32 in pass defense is an ominous sign. While the Pack is better now than they were when they lost here by only one point earlier in the year, the Falcons are better too. 10* Atlanta |
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01-15-17 | Steelers v. Chiefs -1 | Top | 18-16 | Loss | -115 | 101 h 13 m | Show |
Note: This play is unaffected by the time change for Sunday. 8* Kansas City (8:20 ET): Three is considered a "key number" in betting for a reason. It's the standard issue for home field advantage in the NFL. Thus, when you have two seemingly evenly ranked teams, it seems reasonable to expect that home team would in fact be favored by a field goal. But, despite the fact that the Chiefs had last week off and HC Andy Reid is an amazing 19-2 SU off a bye in his career (3-0 in playoffs), that is not the case here. That seems strange to me. Pittsburgh did beat Miami 30-12 last week, but total yardage (367-305) and especially first downs (19-18) were not that lopsided. Rather, the result of that game hinged on the Dolphins turning the ball over three times and having to start Matt Moore at QB. This season marked the 1st time EVER that the Steelers came into the playoffs w/ QB Ben Roethlisberger, RB Le'Veon Bell and WR Antonio Brown all healthy. But in a cruel bit of irony, Big Ben was left in the game too long last week and suffered a foot injury late in taking a sack. A less than 100% Roethlisberger could be the difference here as I see value on the Chiefs. I'm not going to say that Pittsburgh's 43-14 win over Kansas City back in Week 4 has little to no relevancy, but just remember that last week the Black and Gold were the ones favored against a foe that beat them in the regular season. We saw how that worked out. The Week 4 loss was - clearly - the Chiefs worst game of this season. Their other three losses all came by seven points or less (two by identical 19-17 scores). Falling behind 22-0 after one quarter is what doomed KC is that reg season loss in Pittsburgh, which was a Sunday night game. Similarly, the Steelers jumped all over Miami early last week. I would not look for a similar early explosion from them here, not w/ Roethlisberger less than 100 percent. Also, the Kansas City defense (despite being w/o Derrick Johnson) is in much better shape now than it was in Week 4. That's because they have Justin Houston in the lineup. Honestly, I was shocked that Pittsburgh opened up as the favorite here, given the situation favoring Kansas City off the bye. As they are in almost every playoff game, turnovers will be the key here. The Chiefs have the best TO margin in the league over the last two seasons and the most points added from defense/special teams this season. That's not always sustainable, but last week saw Roethlisberger make a number of bad decisions throwing the football. He will not be able to get away w/ those mistakes against this defense, which is permitting only 15.7 PPG at home. While they arrive at Arrowhead Stadium riding an impressive sounding seven-game win streak, the best team the Steelers have beaten during that time is the Giants. They actually trailed by double digits in each of their final three regular season games. Chiefs' fans, who have seen just one playoff win since '93 (LY vs. Brian Hoyer-led Texans), have been dying for this opportunity for a long time and the team will respond in kind. 8* Kansas City |
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01-14-17 | Seahawks v. Falcons -5 | Top | 20-36 | Win | 100 | 73 h 29 m | Show |
10* Atlanta (4:40 ET): At least for one week, we got to see the "Seattle of old." That was because they were fortunate enough to draw a weak Detroit team in the Wild Card Round, at home no less. Paced by Thomas Rawls' 161 yards rushing, the Seahawks essentially dominated the Lions "from bell to bell" in a 26-6 win and cover (I had them -8) where the only points allowed came on two long field goals. But, it goes w/o saying that this week brings a far stiffer challenge in the form of a trip to the Georgia Dome to play the rested and high-scoring Falcons. This is actually a rematch of a 2012 Divisional Round game, which was won by Atlanta 30-28, but in reality signified the genesis of a five-year Seattle run that has seen them make the playoffs every year and the Super Bowl twice (won one). Amazingly, it also represents the ONLY playoff win in the entire career of Falcons QB Matt Ryan. Seattle covered here in the Dome five years ago but this year it's Ryan and Atlanta's turn. Lay the points. Even in defeat, Seattle was probably the better team five years ago. This year though, that is NOT the case. This is probably the best Falcons team in the Ryan era and the QB has certainly presented a valid case for MVP. Atlanta's offense was the best in the league by a wide margin this year, averaging 33.8 points and 415.8 yards per game. They also average 6.7 yards per play, which is tops in the league. In terms of yards per play differential (what the offense averages vs. defense allows), these teams actually rank 1-2 in the league. But the gap between #1 (Atlanta) and #2 (Seattle) is larger than the gap between #2 and #12! The absence of Safety Earl Thomas looms large here as even w/ him in the lineup, the Seahawks gave up 335 yards passing and three touchdowns to Ryan back in Week 6. Seattle won that game 26-24, but it was at home and not w/o controversy as it sure looked like Thomas and Richard Sherman got away w/ pass interference on Falcons' WR Julio Jones on the final play. I expect Ryan to have a ton of success throwing the ball Saturday night. This offense had a league best 69 plays of 20+ yards during the regular season. Remember, an anemic Detroit passing attack simply lacked the personnel to attack the wounded Seahawks secondary, which has performed much worse w/ Thomas out of the lineup. This game taking place in the Georgia Dome is a big deal as Seattle is just 3-4-1 on the road this year and their last three road games have all been shaky. They barely won at San Francisco late in the year. Their worst game of this season came at Green Bay and the offense managed only five points in a loss at Tampa Bay. Though the Atlanta defense can sometimes be susceptible to the run, do not look for Rawls to repeat LW's performance, particularly if Seattle falls behind. Furthermore, the Seahawks' offensive line is in shambles and often fails to properly protect Russell Wilson, who has not been at 100 percent this year. What the Falcons' D is good at it is rushing the passer as Vic Beasley leads the league in sacks. On both sides of the ball, the Falcons are rested and healthy. This is their game to shine. 10* Atlanta |
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01-08-17 | Giants v. Packers -4.5 | Top | 13-38 | Win | 100 | 122 h 7 m | Show |
10* Green Bay (4:40 ET): Twice during the Tom Coughlin era (2007, 2011), the Giants made somewhat improbable Super Bowl runs. Both times saw them have to go through a heavily favored Packers team - on the road - to get there. Including that pair of outright playoff victories, the G-Men have covered five straight times against the Pack. Only three of those have come against Aaron Rodgers, however, and the last time was Week 5 of this year, a game they lost 23-16 (but just barely covered as 7.5-pt dogs). This time around, GB isn't so heavily favored and I think we can take advantage of that as this looks to be the hottest team in the league right now East of New England. Lay the points. The Packers enter the playoffs riding a six-game win streak. For the first 10 weeks of the season, Rodgers looked shockingly ordinary, but that's all changed now. Over the L4 games, the offense has averaged just over 34 points per game. Yes, the Giants defense has improved tremendously this year, but it's hardly been a "murderer's row" of QB's that they've had to face. The only "Pro Bow-level" QB that they've had to face the L8 games was Ben Roethlisberger and not surprisingly that was the game they gave up the most points (24) and also lost. Going back to Week 11, Rodgers has completed almost 70 percent of his passes at 8.47 yards per attempt w/ a 15-0 TD-INT ratio. Overall, the Pack have turned the ball over just one time during the six-game win streak. While not as lucky to make the playoffs as the Texans, Lions or Dolphins, I view the Giants as a "lucky" team nonetheless. For instance, they actually won two games this year despite having a -3 turnover ratio. The rest of the league was just 2-43 SU in such affairs. Flipping the script from past years, they also performed well in "close games," going 8-3 SU in those decided by seven points or less. One of the losses was against the Packers, 23-16, and they were actually outgained in that game by almost a 2:1 margin (406-219). With Eli Manning and Odell Beckham Jr, you'd expect this offense to be good, but they were not as they failed to score even 20 points in any of the last five games and in fact scored more than 22 in only four games all season! The fact that we're getting a lower line on the Packers vs. the same opponent they beat earlier in the year - at a time they're playing much better - is a steal in my book. Note they actually led New York 23-9 until a garbage time TD in that reg season matchup as well, so the game was not really as close as the final score might seem to indicate. Watch out for Tight End Jared Cook in this game as well. 10* Green Bay |
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01-07-17 | Lions v. Seahawks -8 | Top | 6-26 | Win | 100 | 102 h 43 m | Show |
10* Seattle (8:15 ET): Having finished the regular season 9-7 SU, the Detroit Lions did indeed make the playoffs. But, by any objective measure, this is simply not a very good football team. They were both outscored and outgained over the course of the season, which is indicative of sub-.500 level play. In only one of their nine victories (a 28-13 win at New Orleans in Wk 13) did they not need a 4Q comeback. In fact, in every game but that 28-13 win at New Orleans, they trailed at some point in the fourth quarter! Their eight come from behind victories in the 4Q set a new NFL record! Of course, since that one wire-to-wire victory over the Saints, they have not covered a game (0-4 ATS) and ended the regular season on a three-game SU losing streak. Now - for a second straight game - they are playing on a short week, in Seattle no less, which is the toughest venue for visiting teams in the league and it's a primetime game to boot (which tend to favor the Pacific Time Zone team). Lay the points in this Wild Card matchup. Now, I'm not as high right now on Seattle as I've been going into the playoffs in recent years. The loss of safety Earl Thomas figures to catch up w/ them, particularly if matched up against Matt Ryan and Atlanta next week. But Matt Stafford and the Lions' offense simply lack the horses to take advantage. This edition of the Seahawks may not be as strong as recent years, but they still outgained opponents by over 40 YPG and finished w/ the sixth best point differential in the league. They were also second in the league in yards per play differential. Here at home, even w/ the loss to Arizona two weeks ago, they still outscored opponents by an average of 11.4 PPG at home. By the way, the Lions lost all five games against playoff teams this year. Every loss came by at least a touchdown and generally speaking, they weren't that competitive in any of them. The franchise is also 0-7 SU in the playoffs since a Barry Sanders-led squad reached the NFC Title Game in '91. They're 1-5-1 ATS in those games as well. The Detroit offense is basically one-dimensional as they rank 30th in the league in rush yards at just 81.9 YPG. Good luck running on a Seahawks defense that is among the top seven in stopping the run. The Seahawks' pass defense may not be what it was w/ Thomas in there, but I don't see the Lions taking advantage as Stafford has regressed significantly since injuring his finger back in Week 14. On the other side of the ball, the Lions defense is very overrated. They got gashed badly over the L2 weeks (by Dallas & Green Bay) and actually finished dead last in DVOA (the metric used by the indispensable Football Outsiders). Russell Wilson will take advantage of that and it's also worth noting the Lions' defense did not force a single turnover the L4 weeks. 10* Seattle |
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12-26-16 | Lions +7 v. Cowboys | Top | 21-42 | Loss | -105 | 59 h 27 m | Show |
8* Detroit (8:30 ET): My own power rankings suggest that this spread should be over a touchdown, but there are special circumstances in play Monday night. With the Giants losing outright on Thursday, Dallas not only has the NFC East sewn up, but homefield advantage throughout the playoffs as well. That makes the L2 weeks of the regular season pretty irrelevant from their perspective. For Detroit, however, much is still to be gained. We already know that the NFC North will be decided next week when they host Green Bay. However, a win tonight would at least clinch them a spot in the playoffs. Given the circumstances at play here, I'll be taking the points and wouldn't be the least bit surprised if the Lions won SU. Detroit has enjoyed a fortuitous season to this point as they have managed to go 8-4 SU in one-score games. The only time all year that they have NOT trailed in the fourth quarter was a 28-13 win at New Orleans three weeks ago. However, I will give them credit in that LW's loss at the Giants marked their first loss all season by more than a touchdown. I know it sounds crazy, but QB Matt Stafford seems to have benefitted from the retirement of WR Calvin Johnson as no longer is he locked into one receiver. Defensively, the team is in the top 10 in yards per game allowed. What's really impressive is that only four opponents have been able to score more than 20 pts against this Lions defense. None of those games have taken place in the last eight weeks. Given what you've just read, it should not come as shock to find that this team is 5-3 ATS as a dog this year. After that 9-0-1 ATS start, the Cowboys have failed to cover four in a row. They were "back doored" B2B weeks by Washington and Minnesota, then "Odell Beckham'd" by the Giants. Last week, they were back and forth w/ Tampa Bay and needed four turnovers to pull out a 26-20 win. While a perfect 4-0 ATS as an underdog, Dallas is just 5-5 laying points at the betting window. They are saying they won't be resting starters, but I imagine they will. There's no reason to increase RB Ezekial Elliott's workload before the playoffs and I imagine we'll see Tony Romo come in for Dak Prescott at some point. The Lions are going to be highly motivated coming off last week's loss and that's the difference here. 8* Detroit |
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12-25-16 | Ravens v. Steelers -5.5 | Top | 27-31 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 57 m | Show |
8* Pittsburgh (4:30 ET): This is a critical game if the AFC North. The first place Steelers can put the division "to bed" w/ a win. But a Ravens victory would dramatically alter things as it would give them a season-sweep and put them in driver's seat. But, there's a small problem for Baltimore here and that's this is a road game. The only two places they've won this year (besides Baltimore) are Cleveland and Jacksonville. Having to win their final two games, both of which are on the division road (next week at Cincinnati), thus puts them behind the 8-ball. Making matters more problematic is the fact that Pittsburgh is rolling; the Black and Gold have won and covered each of their last five games. Lay the points here. The Steelers were not at their best either of the last two weeks, yet were able to win a pair of tough road games over the Bills and Bengals. Two weeks ago in Buffalo, they turned it over three times, yet were still able to win 27-20 thanks to a dominating performance from RB Le'Veon Bell (200+ yards). Last week, they fell behind Cincinnati early. It was a 20-9 game at halftime and they didn't take the lead until just over seven minutes were left in the game. But it's not as if the offense didn't move the ball. They gained 382 yards and the only reason they fell behind was settling for field goals. There were six of them from Chris Boswell, meaning the offense actually scored seven of the nine times they have the ball. One of the times they didn't was the final drive of the game when they moved the ball 75 yards on 13 plays and ended the game by kneeling the ball inside the Bengals' 10-yd line. Despite the close nature of the game, they actually outgained Cincinnati 382-222. Baltimore was a bit of a fortunate winner last week. Sure, they led the Eagles early, but Philly elected to go for a 2-pt conversion and the win on the final play. It was the second straight non-cover for them after losing to the Patriots the previous Monday. We know that the Ravens have a strong defense, but they could be w/o CB Jimmy Smith here and that potentially means there's a major issue when trying to cover Steelers WR Antonio Brown. Bell did not have a good game in the first meeting this year (only 32 yards), but I'll guarantee he plays better here. Also, that first meeting was Ben Roethlisberger's first game back after suffering an injury and he did not play well. Shockingly, the Steelers have lost four straight times to the Ravens. That streak comes to an end on Christmas Day. 8* Pittsburgh |
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12-24-16 | Dolphins v. Bills -3.5 | Top | 34-31 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 41 m | Show |
10* Buffalo (1:00 ET): Though it's the Dolphins and not the Bills still in playoff contention, to me, the latter is still the better team. Yes, this is a game that Miami "has to have" and their playoff odds figure to take a massive hit if they were to lose here. But just because they "must win" doesn't mean they "will win." This is the dreaded second of back to back road games for the 'Fins, both in divisional play no less. Sure they clobbered the Jets last Saturday, 34-13 as slight 2.5-pt favorites. But that game was somewhat "gifted" to them via four New York turnovers as total yardage was 360-303, not in Miami's favor. That's pretty par for the course for this team in 2016 as they actually rank a woeful 28th in YPG differential. Also, Buffalo has a YTD point differential of +44 (Miami is +1 & that's after LW's blowout) despite being two games below Miami in the AFC East standings. Lay the points. The Bills were fortunate enough to draw the winless Browns last week and that led to their most complete game in sometime. The final score was 33-13 w/ a 451-269 edge in total yards. Still their playoff chances are on life support as is HC Rex Ryan's tenure here. But I anticipate a strong close to the season nontheless. This is a revenge spot for Buffalo, who blew an 11-point lead down in Miami earlier in the year. That loss snapped what was at the time a four-game win streak for the Bills. Previously, they had beaten Miami five out of the last six times they had played (also 5-1 ATS) including a season sweep last year. Let's not forget one of the key storylines here and that's Miami is still sending out a backup QB, Matt Moore. Moore was sufficient enough against the downtrodden Jets LW, but I can't possibly see him throwing for another 236 yds on just 12 completions again. RB Jay Ajayi literally and figuratively carried the load in that 1st meeting of the year w/ Buffalo, but he's slowed down in recent weeks. In fact, the Dolphins have failed to run for 100 yds as a team five straight weeks. Even after beating the Jets, Miami is just 2-10 ATS its L12 December games. Normally, I might be scared off by having to lay "the hook," but this spread should be closer to a touchdown anyway. 10* Buffalo |
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12-24-16 | Titans v. Jaguars +5 | Top | 17-38 | Win | 100 | 51 h 41 m | Show |
10* Jacksonville (1:00 ET): There are two ways to view LW's disastrous Jaguars' loss, which resulted in the firing of now former HC Gus Bradley. One way would be to take a look at the fact team threw for all of 83 yards and somehow still led the Texans 20-8. The other way would be to simply chalk it up as another brutal result that ultimately led to Bradley's dismissal. Whatever way you choose, I'm still taking the Jags and the points this week. This has been a far more competitive team than their 2-12 SU record might indicate. Also, you have Tennessee in a spot where they are ripe to be upset. They pulled out a somewhat miraculous rally last week in Kansas City. While much improved, the road favorite role is certainly new to the young Titans. I can't remember the last time they were getting this level of public support. Again, fade 'em and take the points. Tennessee comes in riding a three-game win streak that has them tied w/ Houston (Indy one-game back) atop the AFC South. But all three wins were by six points or less and they've been outgained over the course of them. On the road this year, the Titans are averaging the same number of points (23.4 PPG) that they are allowing. This will be the sixth time this year that they've been favored and while they're 4-1 SU in the previous five, they're also only 2-3 ATS. They've been road chalk just one time and failed to cover there (at Chicago). As a favorite of more than a field goal, they are 0-3 ATS. They were somehow able to beat BOTH Denver and Kansas City even though Marcus Mariota did not throw a single TD pass. Going from road dog to road favorite in a week's time is a pretty massive swing, regardless of opponent. Jacksonville is 0-6 SU at home. No team wants to go winless in front of its fans over the course of a season. Having given away one home game to London means this is the home finale. Adding to the motivation here is the coaching change. Players should certainly be out to impress whomever ends up leading the new regime. Again, the Jaguars have played a lot better this year than the record shows. Again, they led Houston 20-8 last week, on the road. It was their fifth loss by five points or less. It's also easy to forget that Tennessee trailed KC 17-6 last week. I just feel taking the points is the way to go here. 10* Jacksonville |
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12-22-16 | Giants v. Eagles +2.5 | Top | 19-24 | Win | 105 | 30 h 24 m | Show |
10* Philadelphia (8:25 ET): Despite the disparate records, I still feel the Eagles should be favored here. The Giants come into the City of Brotherly Love riding a wave of positive headlines. It is their defense that is drawing the most accolades after holding the Cowboys and Lions to a total of 13 points the L2 weeks. Yet, ironically, Philly's defense is giving up fewer points per game, at least here at home (15.3 PPG allowed). If the Giants were a stock, my guess is that most analysts would be yelling "sell high" right about now. Quietly, the offense has been held to 17 pts or fewer each of the L3 games. That hardly makes them an ideal candidate to be laying points on the divisional road. Going back to the respective records, the G-Men are 10-4 w/ a point differential of +22. The Eagles are 5-9 SU, but actually have a point differential of +17. I smell what will be dubbed an "upset" here. Take the points. Being that these are divisional rivals, they have met one time before this season. Ironically, I was on the G-Men when they hosted the Eagles on November 6th. Philadelphia gave that game away w/ two early Carson Wentz INT's putting them into a 14-0 hole. But the Eagles still finished w/ a 443-302 edge in total yds in what ended up being a narrow 28-23 loss. The problem from the Eagles perspective was that three times they failed to convert on fourth down, the final time coming on the NY 17 yard line w/ under two minutes to go. Close losses have been the story of the Eagles' season as they have six of them by seven points or less. They have zero wins within that margin. All five Eagles victories have come by at least nine points. Isn't it time they won a close one? The Eagles are coming off B2B close losses, first to the Redskins and then LW at Baltimore when they went for a two-point conversion and the win, down 27-26, on the final play. Had they converted that play, everyone would probably view them a lot differently right now. Something else to consider here is how much better the Eagles are at home where they are 4-2 SU (1-7 SU on the road). I mentioned earlier that they only give up 15.3 PPG here. Despite how these teams have been trending of late, the Giants remain a poor 27th in YPG differential. Before the Week 9 matchup, the Eagles had won and covered four straight over the Giants. Carson Wentz set his career his passing yards (347) in that 1st meeting while Eli Manning has lost to the Eagles more times than any opponent in his career. 10* Philadelphia |
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12-18-16 | Patriots v. Broncos +3.5 | Top | 16-3 | Loss | -125 | 65 h 13 m | Show |
10* Denver (4:25 ET): For the third time in the last two seasons, New England will visit Mile High as a favorite. They lost outright both times in 2015, the most notable being the AFC Championship Game. Given the current respective trajectories, however, it would appear as if only the Pats have a realistic shot at getting back to that game. The Broncos come in off their second loss by a field goal in the last three weeks and are fighting for their playoff lives. New England, on the other hand, seems likely to once again be the top seed heading into the postseason. This is a short week for Brady, Belichick and company, so considering that and the sense of desperation that exists here for Denver, I'll take the points. The Broncos were carried by their defense en route to last year's Super Bowl win and that unit has essentially remained just as strong in 2016. Particularly against the pass, where they are #1 in the league, allowing less than 200 YPG. Last week, they held Marcus Mariota below 100 yds through the air, but still lost due to their own offensive ineptitude. Incredibly, they ran for 18 yards on only nine carries. But the bulk of the criticism still falls on QB Trevor Siemian, who has failed to even live up to the low standard set by Peyton Manning last year. Given the fact that New England ranks #3 in scoring defense (17.6 PPG allowed), you might conclude that Siemian is likely to struggle again, but that number of points allowed is somewhat misleading considering the Patriots are 10th in yardage allowed. They've benefited from facing a number of terrible QB's this year, but Joe Flacco threw for 300+ yds against the Monday night. Given their strength resides in defending the pass, rather than the run, I feel the Broncos defense matches up pretty well w/ the Patriots offense. The majority of the games where New England has put up substantial rushing totals, it's been due to building a big lead. I certainly do not envision that scenario playing out this week. Also important to note is that under HC Gary Kubiak, the Broncos are 8-2-1 ATS as dogs w/ eight outright wins. That includes a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS at home. Tom Brady is just 2-7 SU/ATS all-time here in Denver. 10* Denver |
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12-18-16 | Raiders v. Chargers +3 | Top | 19-16 | Push | 0 | 65 h 13 m | Show |
10* San Diego (4:25 ET): Oakland has undergone quite the transformation this year as they are most definitely a "public" team, never more so than this week where we find them laying a short number on the road against San Diego. But despite what the records say here, these teams are pretty even w/ the home dog actually the better team in some respects! The reason for the gap between the Raiders and Chargers in the AFC West standings has as much to do w/ luck as anything else as the former has had it in spades throughout 2016 while the latter has had basically none. With the expectation that Oakland, off a 10-day break, is likely to simply "bounce back" from only it's third loss of the season, I'll fade the public and take the points. In addition to leading the league in turnover margin (+15), Oakland has enjoyed a tremendous amount of "luck" in close games w/ a 7-2 record in one-score games (decided by 8 pts or less). One of those losses occurred last Thursday night when for a second time this year, they fell to the Chiefs, this time 21-13. Besides Kansas City, the only other team to beat the Raiders this year is Atlanta and that came all the way back in Week 2. As impressive as that may sound, the Silver and Black are just 20th in the league in yards per game differential, having actually been outgained over the course of the season. That ranking is actually below San Diego, who has outgained its opponents. Though the franchise has clearly taken a step in the right direction under HC Jack Del Rio, seeing them as a road favorite is still pretty rare. Meanwhile, San Diego has the most one-score losses of any team in the league over the last two seasons (9). One of those took place in Oakland back in Week 5 when they blew a second half lead and lost 34-31. I was fortunate enough to have the Chargers +3.5, but a botched FG attempt at the end of the game essentially set the tone for this very disappointing season, which has seen almost unprecedented injury misfortune and many games where the team has blown a lead in the second half. Last week at Carolina actually marked the first game all year where SD did not hold a lead at any point in the game! Not only that, they've had a second half lead in every one of those games before LW. The underdog in this AFC West rivalry is an incredible 14-1 ATS the L15 meetings! 10* San Diego |
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12-18-16 | Packers v. Bears +5.5 | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 62 h 48 m | Show |
10* Chicago (1:00 ET): Expect the public to be back on the Packers' bandwagon here after GB thrashed Seattle LW, 38-10, a rare instance of Aaron Rodgers being a home dog. It was the Pack's third consecutive win and cover as they're now back in the playoff hunt at 7-6 overall. But as impressive as that final score may have looked last week, Rodgers and company were clearly aided by a +6 turnover margin as they were actually slightly outgained (354-330) in the contest. Weather is expected to be a major factor in NFL Wk 15, nowhere more so than here in Chicago where temperatures are expected to be below zero. That's not good news for the calf injury Rodgers is currently dealing with and I look for the Packers to struggle here. Take the points. Chicago is 3-10 SU and starting Matt Barkley at QB. Yet, this is by no means a terrible team. In fact, I'm going on the record right now and guaranteeing they will be one of the most improved teams in 2017. As for what they've done so far this season, note they are actually outgaining opponents by an average of 17.7 YPG, which is the 10th best such differential in the league. It's actually better than Green Bay, who is "only" +10.2. In terms of yards per play differential, the Bears are actually fifth in the league, a far cry from GB's #21 ranking. Barkley has actually done a pretty remarkable job in relief of the injured Jay Cutler and will be getting All-Pro WR Alshon Jeffery back from a four-game suspension this week. If anything, Barkley's numbers should be better as he's gotten burned by multiple dropped passes. The defense is now #7 in the league in yards per game allowed. Overall, the team is on a four-game ATS win streak. Recent history has seen the Packers dominate this long-standing division rivalry w/ wins in 13 of the past 16 games including six straight here at Soldier Field. But the Bears have been better at home this year (2-0 vs. NFC North) and Green Bay is only 2-4 SU on the road. Rodgers has reportedly missed practice time due to the calf injury. Historically, he has not performed as well in cold conditions and this may be the coldest game in his career. Typically, the adverse conditions should enable the underdog to keep the game close. Note that when these teams met at Lambeau Field back in October, the line was only Pack -7. It appears as if there's been an overadjustment due to Green Bay's recent form, last week specifically. 10* Chicago |
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12-17-16 | Dolphins v. Jets +2.5 | Top | 34-13 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 20 m | Show |
10* NY Jets (8:25 ET): To me, this game has "upset" written all over it. Yes, I know the last time they played at home, the Jets completely embarrassed themselves in a 41-10 loss to the Colts. But they bounced back nicely w/ a come from behind win LW, though admittedly it was against the 49ers. I'll still maintain the Jets are better than their record, something I cannot say for Miami, who is only 24th in my own personal power rankings. Last week's 26-23 win over Arizona did not come w/o casualty for the Dolphins as they lost starting QB Ryan Tannehill and are now down to career backup Matt Moore for this all-important encounter. Even worse for the 'Fins is that the weather conditions are expected to be unfavorable Sat night and this is a team that's gone just 1-9 SU on turf the L3 seasons including 0-3 in 2016. Take the points. What was so odd about that Jets "no-show" two weeks back on MNF is they've largely been a competitive football team this year. They were coming off a near upset of the Patriots at home the week prior and the two weeks before that saw them lose by only four points or less. One was at Miami, 27-23. That was a game they outgained the opposition 331-274, but succumbed to a -2 turnover differential and the GW score was a 96-yard kickoff return w/ just 5:15 remaining, right after the Jets had taken their first lead since the 1st quarter. Typically, the Jets have found success vs. Miami through the years, going 36-16-3 ATS the past 55 meetings! Something else to consider is that the Dolphins have not swept the season series against the Jets - either SU or ATS - since 2009. New York has covered five of its last six AFC East home games. The other big thing to consider here is the dropoff from Tannehill to Moore. There's a reason that no team comes knocking on Moore's door to be their starting QB and that's because he's not very good. This will be his first start in five years, the last one ironically coming against the Jets. Yes, Bryce Petty is the starting QB for the Jets, but he appears to have at least developed a rapport w/ rookie Robby Anderson. Despite the very different won-loss records here, the Jets actually own the better differential in terms of yards per game (Miami is an ugly 28th). With subpar metrics and a backup QB, I don't like the idea of Miami laying points on the road at all. That's a role they are not only 0-4 ATS in the last four tries, but 0-4 straight up as well. 10* NY Jets |
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12-11-16 | Redskins v. Eagles | Top | 27-22 | Loss | -110 | 108 h 21 m | Show |
10* Philadelphia (1:00 ET): The Eagles' surprise 3-0 SU and ATS start is now a distant memory as they've gone just 2-7 SU and ATS since their Week 4 bye. They've lost three consecutive games, all by 11 pts or more, and failed to score more than 15 pts in any of them. So, you might already be wondering why I'd be willing to endorse them in this spot. Well, for starters, they are at home. Prior to the Monday night game against the Packers, Philly was a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS here at Lincoln Financial Field. This is also a play AGAINST Washington, whom I still do not believe in. This is the third consecutive road game for the 'Skins and seeing as I was right to fade them LW (lost 31-23 at Arizona), I'll do so again here. Last week marked the Eagles worst loss of the year as they were soundly beaten in Cincinnati, 32-14. They fell behind 29-0 in the third quarter and only scored in "garbage time." 1st year HC Doug Pederson ripped his team's performance (rightly so) saying "not everyone" played hard. I realize there are some legit concerns w/ rookie QB Carson Wentz and this offense right now, but going up against a Redskins defense which has permitted three or more scores in six consecutive games, they should find their way. It will certainly help to get WR Jordan Matthews back. Last week was the first game Matthews missed in his career. It showed. At home, this offense averages 24.2 points and 358 yards per game at home. More importantly though, the defense (still one of the best in the league) allows only 13.0 PPG. Something else to consider here is the fact that when these teams met back in Week 6, the Eagles were actually favored in D.C.. Granted, they lost 27-20 and failed to record an offensive touchdown, but going from road favorite to home dog for the rematch comes across as a classic overadjustment to me. Washington's offense may again be missing TE Jordan Reed. While QB Kirk Cousins has proven himself to be more than serviceable, I still don't trust him in these situations. The Redskins have only been a road fave once this year (-1 at Detroit) and lost that game straight up. Philly is due to reverse a 0-4 SU/0-5 ATS slide in this NFC East rivalry. Note that this is the first time in seven tries that the 'Skins are favored over the Eagles. The Eagles still have a better YTD point differential. 10* Philadelphia |
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12-11-16 | Steelers v. Bills +2 | Top | 27-20 | Loss | -108 | 108 h 21 m | Show |
8* Buffalo (1:00 ET): For 2.5 quarters last week, everything was going perfectly for the Bills as they led the Raiders, in Oakland, 24-9. But then, improbably, everything went awry. From that point on, they were outscored 29-0. It was a killer loss too as Buffalo fell to 6-6 SU, two games back of the final Wild Card. But they do have a favorable schedule on the horizon w/ Cleveland, Miami and the Jets to close the season, only the Jets game being on the road. If they can win this first of three home games, this week vs. Pittsburgh, I'd give the Bills a very good chance at winning out and qualifying for the "tournament." While the Steelers might seem too formidable, note the three-game win streak they come in on has been the byproduct of largely weak competition. With the homefield advantage, I believe the Bills should be favored here. Predictably, the public is loading up on the Steelers here, making them one of the most popular choices of this week. But as I said a moment ago, this three game win streak of the Steelers' has been the byproduct of some fairly week competition. They've beaten Cleveland (worst team in the league), Indianapolis (w/ Scott Tolzien) and the Giants (overrated). This marks their third road game in four weeks, so there could be some weariness involved even though the travel has not been far. Something else worth nothing is each of those last three opponents rank 26th or lower in rush offense. Buffalo leads the league in rushing at a monster 161.9 YPG. The Steelers may rank 6th in the league against the run, but they are 0-4 SU and ATS when facing a top 10 rush offense. Again, there is no better offense at running the football than the one they'll face here. Making matters more difficult is that DT Javon Hargrave (concussion) may not play here. Buffalo has run for 150+ yards in five straight games. The passing attack has been much maligned, but this could be the first time since Week 2 that QB Tyrod Tayor has both WR's Sammy Watkins and Robert Woods available at his disposal. The Steelers offense, as lauded as it may be, has scored more than 28 pts just one time in the L7 games. The Bills actually average more points per game! 8* Buffalo |
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12-11-16 | Cardinals +1 v. Dolphins | Top | 23-26 | Loss | -105 | 108 h 20 m | Show |
10* Arizona (1:00 ET): Previous ventures out East have not gone well for the Cardinals this year. (see losses at Buffalo, Carolina and Atlanta). But awaiting them in Miami might be their weakest Eastern Time Zone foe yet and I was shocked that Arizona opened as the dog here. Yes, the Dolphins are the team that finds itself in more realistic playoff contention, but Ryan Tannehill and company were badly exposed in LW's one-sided beatdown at the hands of Baltimore. As I noted in LW's play on Arizona, this team still has one of the best defenses in the league as that unit still ranks #2 in yards allowed on both a per game and per play basis. Believe it or not, but the Cardinals are #1 in the league in YPG differential! Before running into the Ravens last week, Miami had won six in a row. But half of those wins had come against the Jets, Rams and 49ers. They were fortunate to beat both Buffalo and San Diego. I'll give them credit for the win over Pittsburgh, but that was almost two months ago. Last week saw the offense get held to just 277 total yards in Baltimore and what's notable about that is Arizona's defense rates fairly comparably to that of the Ravens. In fact, Miami now finds itself in the unenviable situation of having to face the top two defenses in the league in terms of yards allowed in consecutive weeks. Remember what I said about Arizona ranking #1 in the league in YPG differential? Well, Miami is 29th in that department (-45.3)! It was nice to see the Arizona offense get back on track last week w/ 31 points vs. Washington. They needed it as the usually stout defense actually had an off-game. But it's a much weaker offense that they'll be going up against here. Speaking of offense, Arizona's David Johnson is having himself a MVP-caliber season. He leads the league in yards from scrimmage w/ 100+ in every game thus far. Miami's defense ranks only 29th against the run and only one team (awful San Francisco) is giving up more yards per carry. So look for Johnson to have a big game here. Including last week's loss, Miami is an awful 0-10 ATS in the month of December the L3 seasons. 10* Arizona |
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12-05-16 | Colts v. Jets +2 | Top | 41-10 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
10* NY Jets (8:30 ET): I readily concede to you that the Jets are not world-beaters (I have them ranked 28th in the league coming into this game), but who are the Colts (ranked 24th) to be laying points on the road? Even w/ QB Andrew Luck back in the fold, Indy is not a very impressive team. They're 5-6 SU and been outscored by 31 points this season. Without Luck (concussion), they were whipped badly by the Steelers on Thanksgiving night, losing 28-7 in one of the more lopsided games of last week. The Colts have now been outgained in seven of their last eight games and again, this one (for me) boils down to the fact I never want to lay points w/ a bad team on the road (see 49ers yday). The Jets beat the Colts soundly LY, on a Monday night, 20-7 as six-point road underdogs. Take the points here. The Jets probably should have beaten the Patriots last week as they led w/ just under 2:00 to go and never trailed by more than the spread. Though now 3-8 SU, I believe the Jets to be slightly better than their record. A -15 turnover margin has certainly done them no favors and while most of that is on QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, he looked a lot better in his return to the starting lineup last week than he had previously. A big key for Fitz and the Jets offense here is that center Nick Mangold is set to return. Note that the Jets have been close each of the L3 weeks, losing by five or less every time and outgaining two of those opponents. The Jets' offense should have some success here against an awful Indy defense, which is giving up the second most yards per play in the league right now (6.2). Fitzpatrick should have some success in this game as the Colts' pass rush often fails to get home. Indy has allowed 22 TD passes so far and while picking off opposing passers only three times. Every single opponent this year has scored 20+ on this Colts defense. Meanwhile, the strength of this Jets team (defense), should do well against an awful Colts' O-line, which allows Luck to be sacked about 3.5x per game. In the L3 games, the Jets are allowing an average of just 310.3 YPG. I feel that, at home, New York should be able to win this game. 10* NY Jets |
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12-04-16 | Panthers v. Seahawks -7 | Top | 7-40 | Win | 100 | 78 h 58 m | Show |
10* Seattle (8:25 ET): The Seahawks are off a rather embarrassing loss LW, 14-5 at Tampa Bay, which put a severe damper on their hopes of chasing down Dallas for homefield advantage in the NFC. But that's nothing compared to the heartbreak the Panthers have suffered throughout 2016. All that went right for Carolina last year, has gone wrong this year as last week's 35-32 loss at Oakland marked their fifth loss by a field goal or less this year. That's a stark contrast to LY when they were 8-1 SU in one-score games. Regression was inevitable for 2015's NFC Champs, but who knew it would be so severe? As much as I want to state Carolina is better than its record, a primetime affair in Seattle seems like the least likely place to turn things around. Especially w/ the Seahawks coming off a loss. Lay the points. Under HC Pete Carroll, the 'Hawks are 16-5 ATS in regular season primetime games. Much has been written about the so-called 'Circadian Advantage' that Pacific Time Zone teams enjoy in night games, so I'll leave that to you to research. This will be Seattle's fourth primetime game in the L7 weeks and they are 2-0-1 ATS the previous three, including road games vs. Arizona and New England. Also, be aware that over the past four seasons, the Seahawks are 8-3-1 ATS when laying a TD or less at home. This was a team that had been rolling prior to last week's dud performance in Tampa Bay. They'd won in New England (Sunday Night Game) and pretty much dominated a good Philadelphia team the previous two weeks. They're still 5-0 SU at home and are #1 in scoring defense. Carolina having a breakout game offensively last week might seem encouraging. But that's until you realize it came against a shaky Raiders defense, which is 30th against the run (yards per carry). That explains the Panthers going over 100 yds rushing for the first time in four weeks. Two of the previous three saw them held under 60 yds rushing. The Seattle defense should be at full strength here w/ both Earl Thomas and Michael Bennett returning. Meanwhile, Carolina has major losses on both sides of the ball w/ top defensive player Luke Kuechly out (concussion) and the offensive line down to a third-string center signed off the street. You saw the impact of Kuechly's absence w/ the defense giving up 35 pts LW vs. Oakland. On the road this year, Carolina is now giving up 31.0 PPG. This is a revenge game for the Seahawks as well (LY's Divisional Playoff), so don't be surprised to see them kick a dog when it's down, so to speak. 10* Seattle |
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12-04-16 | Bucs v. Chargers -3.5 | Top | 28-21 | Loss | -110 | 74 h 54 m | Show |
10* San Diego (4:25 ET): I believe this line should be closer to a touchdown, rather than a field goal. Yes, the Chargers are only 5-6 straight up for the year. But they were my top play last week and looked good coming off the bye w/ a 21-13 win at Houston. Now, they return home to face a Tampa Bay team that will be in prime letdown mode off a shocking win LW at home over Seattle. Two weeks ago, the Bucs beat the Chiefs, but I'm still not really a believer as they've still been outscored by 15 pts over the course of the season. So what I'm saying is that they shouldn't start printing playoff tickets just yet in Tampa Bay. Meanwhile, I'm not ready to write off the Chargers just yet, despite them being in a very tough division. Lay the points. I said it in last week's analysis and I'll come back w/ it again: the Chargers are better than their record. They've led in every game this year. That includes the second half advantages in five of the six losses. Twice, they've blown double digit fourth quarter leads and had that not happened, they'd be right in the thick of the competitive AFC West. QB Philip Rivers has been bit by the turnover bug at some most inopportune times (Miami game, in particular), but overall is still having a real strong year despite missing several key receivers. Rivers has thrown for 23 TD passes so far and the SD offense is 4th in scoring and 5th in passing. The Tampa Bay defense has been playing WAY over its head the L3 games, forcing a ton of turnovers, but I feel is due to start regressing, especially on third downs. The Bucs still rank only 26th in yards per play allowed. The Bucs shocked Seattle LW by scoring TD's on their first two drives. But from there, they didn't do much the rest of the game. Those two scoring drives constituted 140 total yards. For the rest of the game, they gained less than 200. Granted they were facing the Texans, but the Chargers' defense happens to be off its best performance of the year, allowing 13 pts and forcing four turnovers. Again, I'm not ready to write off Rivers, who is 35-21 ATS in his career in December/January. So often we see a team that plays Seattle struggle the following week due to the physical nature of the game. Such should be the case here. 10* San Diego |
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12-04-16 | Redskins v. Cardinals -1 | Top | 23-31 | Win | 100 | 74 h 53 m | Show |
8* Arizona (4:25 ET): Both of these teams have ties on their resume. But, generally speaking, those ties are the only recent result they have in common. Washington did lose on Thanksgiving, but they did something that few have been able to accomplish this season and that's cover at the Cowboys' expense. After starting the year 0-2 SU/ATS, the Skins have covered eight of their last nine games. They're 6-4-1 SU, meaning they're in the thick of the playoff race in the NFC. Meanwhile, Arizona was projected to be one of the top teams in the conference coming into the year, but instead has been one of the bigger underachievers. They're just 4-6-1 SU after being blown out at Atlanta last week. But I still have them rated slightly better than the Redskins, meaning any line under -3 is a bargain to me. Despite these teams seemingly going in opposite directions of late, the value is on the Cards. Lay the points. I'll tip my cap to Redskins' QB Kirk Cousins, who is proving himself to be a viable starter in this league. In retrospect, the old Cousins vs. RG3 debate seems ludicrous. Cousins and the Washington offense racked up plenty of yards last week against Dallas (505). But they'll be running into a far better defense here. In fact, Arizona is #1 in the league in yards allowed per game (293.9) and per play (4.9). They are #2 agianst the pass, allowing less than 200 YPG. Even though Atlanta blew them out LW, they were held to their fewest yard per play total of the season. Two of Cousins' top receiving threats - DeSean Jackson and Jordan Reed - are both dealing w/ shoulder injuries, which could limit them. On the other side of the ball, I feel the Arizona offense, RB David Johnson specifically, match up well w/ a Washington defense that is a horrid 31st in yards per carry allowed. Only the 49ers are worse. Johnson leads the NFL in yards from scrimmage and I'll call for a big day from him here. The Cardinals have NEVER lost three in a row under Bruce Arians. I can't help but think what this line would have been just a few scant weeks ago. To me, the Cardinals' season is on the line here and they should deliver in kind. I remain unsold on the Redskins. 8* Arizona |
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12-04-16 | Bills +3 v. Raiders | Top | 24-38 | Loss | -100 | 74 h 34 m | Show |
10* Buffalo (4:05 ET): Perhaps I'm in the minority here, but I believe the better team is getting points. Yes, the Raiders are 9-2 SU and winners of five straight. But, their YTD point differential is only +32 (less than 3 PPG), which is the second worst mark ever posted by a 9-2 SU squad since the 1970 merger! They have been winning close - a lot - as the last two weeks have featured narrow escapes over Houston and Carolina, teams ranked outside my top 20. Buffalo has a top five scoring differential in the league and is 2-0 SU/ATS since the bye, beating Jacksonville and Cincinnati. While 6-0 ATS on the road (including Mexico City game), the Raiders are just 1-4 ATS at home, which is where both SU losses have occurred. Take the points. Overall, Oakland has seven wins by seven points or less to its credit. I will always harp on this. While some will want to claim a team has some unprovable "clutch" ability in these situations, the reality is that a record like the Raiders have in games decided by 7 pts or less (7-1 SU) is a byproduct of good luck. The last two weeks have seen them outgained by both the Texans and Panthers. In each game, they entered the fourth quarter trailing. QB Derek Carr had a nasty dislocation of his finger LW and while he's been given "full clearance," moving forward, I can't help but think it could be an issue. Something else to consider is that this will be just the fifth time that the Raiders have been favored by a FG or more this season. They're just 2-2 SU previously, including an outright loss here at home to Atlanta in Wk 2. While Oakland's offense is deserving of accolades, the defense (sans Khalil Mack) has issues. The latter unit is giving up more than 28 PPG at home this year. Buffalo's defense is finally playing to what you'd expect from being under the tutiledge of Rex Ryan, having allowed just 12 and 21 pts in the L2 wks. They are 11th in the league, giving up just 5.4 yards per play. The Bills offense may be dead last in the league in passing, but they're #1 in rushing (157.4 YPG). While TE Charles Clay may be out, they should be getting back WR Sammy Watkins, which is a big deal. The Oakland defense is just 26th against the run. Eventually, the Raiders' luck has to start running out. 10* Buffalo |
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11-28-16 | Packers v. Eagles -3.5 | Top | 27-13 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 45 m | Show |
10* Philadelphia (8:25 ET): Let's just come out and say it - the Packers are simply not a very good football team in 2016. They arrive here in the City of Brotherly Love on a four-game losing streak after being blown out last Sunday night by Washington, 42-24. Curiously, the line is roughly the same this week, on the road against another NFC East foe. I think that's the oddsmakers taking advantage of the fact GB continues to be a very "public" team in spite of all the losing. The Eagles are actually a much tougher opponent than the Redskins as the former comes in ranked an impressive fourth in the league in point differential. Normally, I might be scared of laying "the hook," but in this instance, I'm envisioning a double digit win for the home team. Lay the points. I have to admit that I was very wrong about the Eagles. Coming into the year, I projected them to be one of the worst teams in all of football. They're currently 5-5 SU, but the reality is that they are even better than that record. Were it not for an 0-4 SU record in games decided by 7 pts or less (all on the road), they'd be in better shape. Here at home, they're a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS, outscoring opponents by 17.5 PPG. Two weeks ago, they held the high-flying Falcons to just 15 points here. This is one of the best defenses in the entire league right now as not only are they seventh in yards allowed per game, they're fifth in scoring. At home, they allow an average of just 9.5 PPG! Green Bay, on the other hand, has quite the lousy defense. Their secondary was absolutely shredded LW by Kirk Cousins and overall they allowed a frightening 8.62 yards per play. A big reason for that is they are down both starting corners and both starting inside linebackers! Can Carson Wentz take advantage? I think so. Overall, this Packers' D is allowing a 71% completion percentage on the road! While Aaron Rodgers is still great, he has no support and no run game to speak of. Another "hidden" edge for the Eagles in this game lies on special teams, they are one of the best in the league in the "third phase" of the game while the Packers are one of the worst, particularly when it comes to covering kickoffs. Green Bay has won only two of the last 10 times it has been an underdog. 10* Philadelphia |
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11-27-16 | Chargers -2.5 v. Texans | Top | 21-13 | Win | 100 | 4 h 40 m | Show |
10* San Diego (1:00 ET): While an early start time and bet to the role of favoritism, the reality is this is a great spot for the Chargers. They are coming off a bye while the Texans just played Monday night, in Mexico City no less. In all due respect, Houston is just not a very good team. Granted, a pretty clear case could be made that they deserved to beat the Raiders, but San Diego should have beaten the Raiders too. I've said it before, but it bears repeating that the Lightning Bolts are much better than their record shows. That take is reaffirmed by the fact they are +14 in scoring differential. Meanwhile, Houston has been outscored by 34 points so far, fourth worst in the AFC. So what I'm saying is that San Diego absolutely should be favored here. Lay the points. There have been multiple games this year that the Chargers lost that they probably should have won. Last time we saw them, they outgained Miami, only to be undone by four Philip Rivers INT's. That's a very uncharactertistic performance from the veteran signal-caller. That said, the team does lead the league in turnovers, something that can easily be rectified. The bye has allowed several injured players to return, one of them ILB Denzel Perryman. There's no denying which side has the better offense here; San Diego averages 29.2 points per game. Look for Rivers to use his tight ends and running backs out of the backfield w/ a great deal of success. Oakland's Derek Carr went 11 of 12 for 199 yds and two touchdowns on such pass attempts Monday night. The Texans come in averaging only 18.1 PPG and w/o question are one of the worst offenses in the league. They'd been held under 300 total yards in four of their five games previous to MNF. One would have to think that there's some serious "buyer's remorse" going on w/ QB Brock Osweiler right about now. Can you believe this offense has gone four straight games w/o a pass play of 25+ yards? Osweiler is completing only 54 percent of his pass attempts to talented WR DeAndre Hopkins. Yes, I know the Texans are unbeaten at home this year (5-0 SU/4-0-1 ATS), but they are just 1-4 SU/ATS L3 seasons as a home dog of three pts or less. The Chargers are a remarkable 27-4 ATS L31 games vs. the AFC South. 10* San Diego |
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11-27-16 | Giants v. Browns +6.5 | Top | 27-13 | Loss | -101 | 3 h 30 m | Show |
10* Cleveland (1:00 ET): The 0-11 Browns are rapidly running out of spots to pick up their 1st win. I realize that they probably are not the team that you want to see endorsed in this space, however, this just might be their best remaining spot to record the elusive SU win. My only concern is this is their 12th consecutive game w/o a bye. But that's mitigated by the fact that the Giants' 7-3 SU record is quite misleading. Big Blue has actually outscored its opponents by only four points ALL SEASON and unlike LY have generally been winning their games close. A close Giants win (as in less than 7 pts) is just fine by me here as I'll be taking the points. All seven NY wins this year have been by seven points or less, incuding a come from behind effort LW, at home, against the lowly Bears. Let's go back to last week, shall we? The G-Men fell behind 16-6 early in the second quarter, but the defense pitched a shutout from that point on and they were able to rally for a 22-16 win. However, it was a fourth straight pretty pedestrian effort from Eli Manning and the offense, which is currently thing along the offensive line. Going back to last month, they gained only 232 total yards in a 17-10 road win over the Rams. After that came a bye and then three consecutive home games. Eagles' QB Carson Wentz essentiallt gifted them a win w/ two early INT's. Then, on a Monday nighter, they were fortunate to convert a late fourth down gamble to get by the Bengals. Then came the Bears last week. The fact that every Giants win has been by a TD or less should give the Browns some hope here. Though 0-11 SU and 2-9 ATS, the Browns have made a habit of hanging tough most games. Last week, there were two plays that radically altered the result here at home vs. Pittsburgh. The first came on an untimed down at the end of the first half following a pretty bogus pass interference call. The Steelers took advantage w/ a TD + 2 pt conversion. The second was a strip sack in the end zone w/ just 3:36 remaining in the game, which was the Steelers only other TD. Take those two fluke plays away and it was a dead even game. The week prior, the Browns led Baltimore outright at the half! They also led the Jets big at the half, here at home, a few weeks ago. I don't think Josh McCown is any worse of an option under center than anything else HC Hue Jackson can choose from. No team wants to lose every game, obviously, so look for Cleveland to continue fighting. This is the most points that the Giants have had to lay in any game this year and it's on the road. 10* Cleveland |
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11-24-16 | Vikings +2 v. Lions | Top | 13-16 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 47 m | Show |
10* Minnesota (12:35 ET): The Vikings have had quite the interesting season so far. They started 5-0 SU, quickly establishing themselves as a "team to beat" in the NFC. At that juncture, they were an incredible 18-3 ATS over a 21-game span. But what followed was a 0-4 SU/ATS stretch where the offense was anemic to say the least (14.0 PPG). They bounced back last week, however, beating Arizona 30-24 at home. That win guaranteed this would be a battle for first place in the NFC North as Detroit likewise comes in w/ a 6-4 SU record. Despite beating the Jags 26-19, the Lions were actually held under 300 total yds last week and didn't get the cover until the final 22 seconds when they kicked a field goal (only after drawing an encroachment penalty on 4th and 2 earlier in the drive). Detroit has been a tad bit lucky this year, I'd say w/ all six wins coming by 7 pts or less. I think the wrong team is favored here. One of those four consecutive losses that the Vikings suffered was at home to Detroit, so this is a revenge game for them. The loss took place three weeks ago and was a 22-16 final in overtime. Until last week, that represented the Lions' largest win of the season. Note that to even get to OT they had to have a Matt Prater 58-yard field goal w/ no time remaining in regulation. That was a 4-play, 35-yard drive that began w/ only 23 seconds left. Minnesota never got the ball in OT as Detroit went 11 plays and 87 yards for the win. At the end of regulation, the Vikings held a 337-224 edge in total yards, so even though they were never covering (were -6.5), it would still qualify as a bit of a brutal loss. These teams have alternated season sweeps the L2 years, but this year I'm calling for a split. I mentioned earlier that the Lions have been a bit lucky en route to this 6-4 SU record of theirs. Though 5-1 SU last six games, they've been held under 300 total yds five times in regulation during that time! They're being outgained over the course of the season and have a point differential of just +6 for the year. (Minnesota is +29). Honestly, I was a little scared of the fact that the Vikings needed two non-offensive TD's last week to get by Arizona, but then I remembered Detroit did the same! I think the Vikings defense, which ranks #2 in scoring and #3 in yards allowed, ultimately is the difference maker here. Incredibly, the Lions rushed for only 14 yards last week against the Jags. In what figures to be a low-scoring game, I'm taking the points. 10* Minnesota |
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11-20-16 | Packers +2.5 v. Redskins | Top | 24-42 | Loss | -100 | 93 h 44 m | Show |
10* Green Bay (8:25 ET): Aaron Rogers and the Packers appear to be declining at a frightening rate and rumors about the QB's personal life don't seem like they'll help matters. But I can't help but think back to LY's Wild Card Game between the Pack and the Redskins. Green Bay came to FedEx Field as a short underdog and dominated an overmatched Washington team, 35-18. I see the exact same scenario playing out Sunday night. If Mike McCarthy doesn't have his team ready to go coming off LW's embarrassing 47-25 loss at Tennessee, then maybe it is time for a total re-evaluation. Meanwhile, I'm still unsold on the 'Skins even though they won their division last year and come in at 5-3-1 SU. Take the points. Over the L3 seasons, Washington is 3-8 ATS including 1-5 when laying three or less at home. That one cover came LW in a back and forth game over slumping Minnesota, 26-20 laying 2.5. That result actually did GB a major favor all things considered (keeps them only one game off a division lead). But note the Redskins were coming off a bye last week, giving them a bit of an advantage. No such edge exists here. Like so many teams in this league, Washington's record is a byproduct of fortune in close games. The only team they've beaten by more than a touchdown is the Browns and even that game was close in the fourth quarter. People forget, but the team was 0-2 SU at one point and headed to New York as a sizable dog against the Giants. I took them in what ended up being an outright win there and they're now 5-1-1 SU/6-1 ATS L7 games. Now I view them as fade material. It was four second half field goals that won the game for them last week as the offense failed to get into the end zone after halftime. Contrary to popular belief, the Green Bay offense hasn't been terrible of late. They've averaged 27.7 PPG the L3 games, despite losing all of them. The defense was terrible last week, but I don't see the Washington passing attack exploiting them the same way Tennessee did. For the record, a -3 turnover margin really hurt the Pack last week. This will be just the second time all season that Rodgers and company have been a dog. They covered the first, at Atlanta. They are 6-1 SU and 5-1-1 ATS L7 meetings w/ the Redskins. 10* Green Bay |
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11-20-16 | Eagles +7 v. Seahawks | Top | 15-26 | Loss | -130 | 89 h 39 m | Show |
8* Philadelphia (4:25 ET): I was as shocked as any when the Eagles started the year 3-0 (though in retrospect, two wins came against Cleveland and Chicago) and as unsurprised as any when they came crashing back down to Earth by losing four of their next five. But let's give the team some "due" for beating a hot Atlanta team last week, 24-15, even if it was at home. Some will point to the fact they (Philly) are just 1-4 SU/ATS on the road this year and set to visit the most hostile venue in the league. But w/ a defense that has played every bit as good as Seattle's (yes, you read that correctly!), they absolutely can - and should - stay in this one throughout, if not pull off the "unthinkable" - that being an outright win. Take the points. Also of note is that this line was set to open at Seattle -4.5. But that was before the Seahawks upset the Patriots, a result that I was on the right side of, thank you very much! Anticipating an onslaught of Seattle money here, the oddsmakers had no choice but to bump up the number. One has to think what would the reaction of been had the Seahawks defense not held New England out of the end zone at the end of the game Sunday night. This is a really tough spot for Russell Wilson and company as they have to fly back cross country after a heavily hyped primetime affair and lay points to a possible playoff contender. There have been only two teams all year that Seattle has beaten by more than seven points. Those are San Francisco and the Jets, both of whom are bottom five teams in the league. Meanwhile, the Eagles actually sport the league's third best point differential. I use that metric as a guide to predict future performance as I find it to be far more reliable than a team's actual won-loss record. Because all four losses have come by a TD or less and all five wins have been by at least nine points, we find Philly +66 in points for vs. against right now. Only Dallas and New England are better (Seahawks "only" +35). Seattle's offensive line and running game (certainly connected) turned in its best game of the year last week, but I'm not sure that gets repeated against an Eagles defense which permits only 101 YPG over land and just held the top offense in the league (Atlanta) to only 303 yds total last week . 8* Philadelphia |
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11-20-16 | Jaguars +7 v. Lions | Top | 19-26 | Push | 0 | 85 h 15 m | Show |
10* Jacksonville (1:00 ET): Here we find the oddsmakers asking something of the Lions that they have not done all season. That is win a game by at least seven points! Sure Detroit is 5-4 SU and currently sitting atop the NFC North by virtue of their largest win of the season, 22-16 over the Vikings two weeks ago as 4.5-pt underdogs. But how ironic that the Lions' largest win of the season was an overtime game? Somewhat incredibly, all five of the teams wins have come about as a result of fourth quarter comebacks. They've also benefited by committing only six turnovers. Interestingly, enough the defense has forced only seven. I'm just not ready to get on board w/ this team quite yet, particularly in this price range. As favorites, Detroit is only 0-2-1 ATS this year including outright losses to both Tennessee and Chicago. Jacksonville, on the other hand, has consistently been on the wrong end of close games. They are 2-7 straight up, but four of those losses have been by five points or less. Two of the most painful have come over the L2 weeks. The defense held both Kansas City and Houston under 300 total yards of offense, yet both times the Jags came up short on the scoreboard. I had them plus the points against the Chiefs two weeks ago and thankfully they did cover there (as 7-pt dogs). Comparing spreads for a minute, there's no way the Lions deserve to be favored by as many as points as the 7-2 Chiefs. Last week saw Jacksonville curiously bet to the role of favoritism against rested Houston (something I disagreed with) and they lost that one 24-21. Turnovers have doomed the Jags in these last two losses as they are -6 in that department. What we're looking at here is a Jaguars team that's probably better than its record and a Lions team that is certainly not as good as its record. Using a stock analogy, it's time to "sell high" on the Motor City. Detroit has actually been outscored on the season. I handicap this game the same way I did the JAX-KC matchup and the Jags not only covered in Arrowhead, they probably should have won outright as they outgained the Chiefs 449-231! Jacksonville has now covered four of the last six times it has been a road dog of +3.5 to +7. 10* Jacksonville |
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11-20-16 | Ravens +7.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -123 | 85 h 14 m | Show |
10* Baltimore (1:00 ET): Following last week's wild 35-30 win over Pittsburgh and New England's subsequent loss to Seattle, I now have the Cowboys ranked as the #1 team in the league. Let that sink in for a little bit. They have a rookie QB and a rookie RB and there's a strong likelihood that Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott finish 1-2 in the Rookie of the Year voting (actually more like 2-1, Elliott is your likely winner). America's Team has covered the spread in every game since their Week 1 loss to the Giants. However ... it's not like they've been blowing teams out. Other than Cleveland (who is the worst team in the league), no win this season has come by a margin greater than two touchdowns. Half have been by a TD or less. This being their largest spread of the season, I think we may finally have reached our "tipping point" w/ Dallas this week and I'll fade them. In fact, there have only been three times all season where the Cowboys have been favored by more than ONE point. I already referenced the game at Cleveland. The other two were vs. Chicago and Philadelphia, both Sunday Night games coincidentally. The fact that the 'Boys are now favored by more to beat the Ravens than they were the lowly Bears shows how off the pricing was for them and Chicago at the start of the year. It also shows value to me on Baltimore here. Also, you'll note that they only covered against the Eagles due to overtime as they took the opening possession and scored a touchdown. Yes, you have to give Dallas credit for winning these games, but LW's high-profile win has brought the weight of expectations, something they may not be ready to meet, at least at this price. Also, this team is just 7-13 ATS in Jerry World the L3 seasons. Baltimore is a team that, win or lose, almost always plays close games. They've actually been favored in more games this year than have the Cowboys (6 of 9)! In fact, there hasn't been a single time this year that the Ravens have been getting more than 3.5 pts from the oddsmakers. So you can see how far the market has shifted here towards Dallas despite the fact the Ravens have won B2B games and have had extra time to prepare following a 28-7 cakewalk two Thursdays ago against Cleveland. The Ravens also have the best defense in the league in terms of yards allowed and are top five in scoring. Since the start of last season, this team has played all of three games that weren't decided by one possessions. Two (both losses) were last year w/o Joe Flacco. The other was the aforementioned game LW vs. the Browns. Take the points here. 10* Baltimore |
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11-17-16 | Saints v. Panthers -3 | Top | 20-23 | Push | 0 | 21 h 40 m | Show |
10* Carolina (8:25 ET): Both of these teams are off brutal losses last week. Fortunately, I can say I went AGAINST the Saints as they lost in one of the wildest ways I've ever seen, a blocked XP returned for a GW two-point conversion. They had just tied Denver 23-23 when the deciding play took place. Either way, I was not in danger as I had the Broncos +3. But, still, it's always nice to see one of those plays go your way. New Orleans, in my mind, has greatly exceeded expectations this year. They are 4-5 SU SU, but it wasn't that long ago that they were 0-3 SU and most (myself included) were writing the epitaph for the Drew Brees-Sean Payton era. I think that despite the Panthers' problems, the road team is way overvalued in this one and I'll be laying the points. Carolina has probably been the league's biggest disappointment to this juncture. No matter how you sliced it, regression was going to be a reality for this team coming off LY's 15-1 SU campaign. It should be pointed out however that no team that has won 15 or more games in a regular season has won fewer than 10 the subsequent season. At 3-6 SU right now, the Panthers are definitely threatening to become the first. But despite this poor record, they haven't played that poorly. It's just that many of the bounces that went their way in 2015 have gone against them here in 2016. They led the league in turnover margin LY (+20). This year, they are 29th (-7). Four of their six losses have been by three points or less. They outgained Kansas City last week, 341-256, but shockingly blew a 17-0 lead. The Chiefs never led until the final play. This is also a revenge spot for the Panthers, who lost 41-38 in New Orleans back in Week 6. Their secondary was torched by Brees (400+ yds) in that game, but it was obviously played in the Mercedes Benz Superdome. It's no secret that when you take the Saints outdoors, their offensive production tends to go down significantly. That's what I expect here. Carolina's defense has looked a lot better since the bye, admittedly facing some weak offensive opponents. But they didn't give up a touchdown last week and are allowing just 311.7 YPG the L3 weeks. As a home favorite of three points or less, the Panthers are 7-2 SU/ATS L3 years. Thursday night games tend to favor the superior team, especially when they're at home, and despite what the records say, Carolina is the superior team here. Consider that the lookahead line for this game (posted in the summer) was Carolina -10. This is a really great value play. 10* Carolina |
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11-14-16 | Bengals v. Giants | Top | 20-21 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
10* Cincinnati (8:25 ET): A significant line move took place during the week on this Monday Night matchup w/ the Bengals going from a small dog to either a pick or small favorite. This might seem curious to you as the Giants have been an ever so slightly better team in the first half of the season and are at home. But Cincy is in off its bye and should be in position to turn in one of their best performances to date. The last time we saw them, they tied another NFC East team (Washington). When you look at who they've lost to this year (Steelers, Broncos, Cowboys, Patriots) there's certainly no shame there. The Giants were kind to me last week as I had them in a win and cover over the Eagles. But they were outgained there and pretty fortunate to win thanks to two early Carson Wentz interceptions. I'm on the Bengals here. The Bengals posted one of the best ATS records in the league last season as they finished 12-3-2. That typically leads to an overrating in the marketplace the following year, so I'm not surprised to see them currently standing at just 2-5 ATS. Still though, despite the perception that this team has taken a massive step back, offensively at least, it really hasn't. QB Andy Dalton is third in the league in yards per attempt (8.16). WR AJ Green is #1 in the league in receptions and #2 in receiving yards. This passing attack should find success against a Giants defense that is ranked 25th against the pass and is dead last in the league in sacks w/ 11. Though outgained somewhat significantly by the Redskins in London, it should be pointed out Cincy led that game by double digits in the third quarter. Given how top heavy the AFC has become, it is almost imperative that the Bengals win tonight or their playoff chances get even slimmer. The Giants have won and covered three straight games to get back in the thick of a tight NFC East race. While they never trailed the Eagles last week, they were essentially gifted a 14-0 lead and had to hold on from there. They barely gained over 300 yds in the contest while at the same time giving up 443. This offense simply cannot run the ball effectively as they are dead last in the league, averaging just 68.3 YPG! Over the L10 NFL seasons, home teams averaging less than 70 YPG rushing are 7-23 ATS when failing to run for 100 in any of the L3 games. To me, this one boils down to the fact the Bengals are a little better than their overall record shows while the G-Men are a little worse. 10* Cincinnati |
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11-13-16 | Seahawks +7.5 v. Patriots | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 69 h 3 m | Show |
10* Seattle (8:25 ET): I respect New England and like everyone else have them as my #1 rated team in the league right now. But the idea of Seattle getting this many points is too good to pass up. Since 2012, the year Russell Wilson became the team's QB, there has been only one occasion where the Seahawks have been getting a touchdown or more. It was in that 2012 season and as eight-point dogs they covered in San Francisco (Thurs night game), a 13-6 loss. Yes, it's a short week for the 'Hawks and the Pats are off a bye. But Seattle just doesn't get blown out as both losses this year have come by six points or less. Just twice since '12 have they lost a game by more than a TD. Those losses came by 9 and 10 points respectively and both were one-score games entering the fourth quarter. Take the points. This is of course a rematch from the Super Bowl two years ago and that will dominate the headlines. The Patriots won that day, 28-24, but as well all know it should have been Seattle repeating as SB champs as Wilson was interecepted at the goal line on a foolish play call. That game, obviously, at a neutral field, was a pick em. I don't think enough has changed since that time to justify this line, even w/ the Patriots being at home. Tom Brady has been terrific, but lost in the numbers is the fact he's faced some really weak teams. Remember that the Pats got a major break facing Pittsburgh w/o Roethlisberger. At home this year, New England has actually been outgained. The Seattle defense has been a bit shaky in recent weeks, but gets safety Kam Chancellor back tonight, which is critical. The defense is still allowing only 16.7 PPG for the year and allows fewer YPG than does the Patriots. In what projects as a low-scoring affair (yes!), taking the points is the way to go. I look for the Seahawks to feel disrespected by the line here and come out w/ a chip on their shoulder. I would not be the least bit surprised to see Seattle play its best game since the bye week. They covered the only other time they were a dog this year, which was the tie at Arizona. Remember about the edge West Coast teams usually have in primetime games (look up 'Circadian Advantage'). 10* Seattle |
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11-13-16 | Cowboys v. Steelers -1 | Top | 35-30 | Loss | -125 | 65 h 59 m | Show |
10* Pittsburgh (4:25 ET): In a season bereft of compelling storylines, I gotta ask - "How 'bout them Cowboys!?" Dallas is 7-1 SU, which is the best record in the NFC, and for our purposes they come in w/ the best overall spread record in the league (7-0-1 ATS). Since pushing against the Giants in Week 1 (only SU loss), they have covered seven consecutive games. They've been the underdog in three of them, but not the last two when they took on Philadelphia and Cleveland. A 35-10 win over the moribund Browns needs no investigation, but it should be pointed out they needed OT to get by the Eagles. While I tip my cap to the job done being done by HC Jason Garrett and certainly QB Dak Prescott, I'll argue that the Steelers are the Cowboys toughest opponent to date. In a must win for the Black & Gold, I'll lay the points. Now may not seem like the proper time to stump for Pittsburgh. They've lost three in a row, including 21-14 at Baltimore last week. That marked Ben Roethlisberger's return from injury, but he and the offense simply didn't look the same. Some of that, however, has to do with facing one of the league's top defenses. In fact, the Ravens are giving up the fewest yards per game in the league right now (281.6) and only 17.8 PPG (6th). Dallas is actually fourth in points allowed (17.5), but 10th in yards, so there's some bend but don't break there. They've also been lucky to face some pretty weak offenses. I anticipate a big bounce back from the Steelers offense here. In three home games w/ Big Ben at the helm, this offense has averaged 32.6 PPG w/ the QB posting a 12-2 TD-INT ratio. Roethlisberger was actually a lot better in the second half after the slow start LW. Historically, there is a lot of value in taking the Steelers as a home favorite of three points or less. They are 6-1 SU/ATS the L3 seasons in that price range. The three-game losing streak is also key as it's very rare to find Mike Tomlin's team on this kind of slide. This is just the third time in his tenure that they've lost this many in a row. Coming off a division loss, they are 5-0 SU/4-1 ATS the L3 seasons. Dallas is due to drop one. 10* Pittsburgh |
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11-13-16 | 49ers +13.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 65 h 58 m | Show |
10* San Francisco (4:25 ET): This is a time to "hold your nose" and take the points. There's no doubt that Cleveland is the worst team in the league this season, but there's also no doubt that San Francisco is 31st. They come into Week 10 at 1-7 SU and ATS. That lone win and cover came all the way back in Week 1 when they beat the Rams 28-0. Since then, it's been seven straight ATS losses where every defeat has come by at least a touchdown. Five have been by at least 17 points. None of that can make this play sound even the least bit appealing, but this is one of the biggest spreads of the year so far this NFL season and in a division game, it's an automatic take for me. Arizona is off its bye and there's a case that they're much better than their 3-4-1 SU record. They have a +39 point differential for the year, which is largely owed to a pair of blowout, one over Tampa Bay, the other against the Jets. But also recall, I played against this team two weeks ago (was my *10* Game of the Week) when they lost out in Carolina, 30-20. The game was not as close as the final score indicated as they were down 24-0 late in the first half. This is quite the banged up team right now w/ 10 players currently on season-ending IR. The loss of LT Jared Veldheer looms large for an offensive line that was already struggling to protect Carson Palmer. By the way, this offense has seen its production go way down from last year. They've been held to 21 pts or less in five of eight games. On the defensive side of the ball, the Cards will be w/o Tyrann Mathieu here and that is another huge loss. Mathieu is the key player for Bruce Arians' defense. Note that this is the second meeting of the year between these two. The first saw Arizona win 33-21, but total yardage was basically a wash (228-286) and the 49ers had more first downs (25-17). That was w/ Blaine Gabbert as QB as well for the Niners. Colin Kaepernick is an upgrade at the position and in the loss LW to the Saints, threw for nearly 400 yards. The Cardinals should feel lucky that they scored 33 pts despite < 300 yards and seven-game ATS losing streaks in this league are rare. Look for the dog to find a way to stay within this number. 10* San Francisco |
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11-13-16 | Broncos +3 v. Saints | Top | 25-23 | Win | 100 | 62 h 34 m | Show |
8* Denver (1:00 ET): Quite frankly, I'm pretty shocked at this line. Denver has been a dog only three other times this season. Once was at home, on Opening Night, vs. Carolina. That was clearly a mistake as they won that Super Bowl rematch. They also won at Cincinnati outright, getting 3.5. Last week, closing lines may vary, but I'm using a one-point line and there the Broncos failed to cover, instead losing to Oakland 30-20. Still, that was their first ever ATS loss as a dog under HC Gary Kubiak (7-1-1 all-time) and I love them taking pts here against a Saints team which is back to the role of favoritism after spending much of the year as a dog. Despite a pair of close wins over Carolina and Seattle, New Orleans' homefield advantage isn't what it once was. Take the points. The Saints opened the year 0-3 SU, losing on the final play to both the Raiders and Giants. The last time they were favored here at home was Week 3 and they were blitzed by division rival Atlanta, losing that game 45-32. From that point on, they were a dog in four straight games, including the home dates vs. Carolina and Seattle which they won by a combined eight points. Their other win during that stretch was a gift courtesy of San Diego, who literally fumbled away that game. Last week brought arguably their most "complete" game of the season (won 41-23), but it was against San Francisco, who turned the ball over four times. Even with that cover, it should be pointed out that NO is only 7-16-1 ATS the L24 times it has been favored, not to mention 10-14 straight up! The Broncos not only have the better record, but the better point differential here as well (+48 vs. +4). In fact, only three other teams - Patriots, Cowboys, Eagles - have a better YTD point differential than Denver. Yes, it stinks they will be w/o both CB Aqib Talib and DE Derek Wolfe Sunday. But if there's a defense here that you'd want to worry about, it's still the Saints, who allow 29.7 points an 400+ yards per game. Those numbers both get worse here at home. Denver is still #1 in the league against the pass (183.3 YPG), so look for them to keep Drew Brees in relative check. Meanwhile, the Saints' defense ranks dead last in the league against the pass! 8* Denver |
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11-06-16 | Colts +7.5 v. Packers | Top | 31-26 | Win | 100 | 68 h 32 m | Show |
8* Indianapolis (4:25 ET): Using preseason "lookahead" lines, Green Bay was "supposed to be" a favorite in every game this year. But they ended up being a dog LW at Atlanta (+3), and while they covered, they also lost the game straight up 33-32. That SU drops the Pack to a surprising 4-3 on the year and I'm banking on "the world" being on them here. But the Colts are also off a loss (30-14 at home to Kansas City) and in danger of seeing their season slip away. We know we have two of the most talented QB's in the game on hand here, but it's likely to be some other contributor that proves to be the difference maker in this one. I'm going to take the points as it's rare to get this many w/ Andrew Luck. If you've been following the Colts at all in recent years, then you know that they've been fortunate to experience a lot of luck, both with a capital and small "L." QB Andrew has certainly carried a deeply flawed roster (thanks Ryan Grigson!) as far as he can, but there's also been a great deal of good fortune along the way. Since Luck (the QB) was drafted, this team has gone a somewhat preposterous 30-11 SU in games decided by eight points or less. Ironically, the likely regression they are likely to experience in this department is what has me on them here. I feel the most likely result of this game is a close Indianapolis loss. The Packers, like the Colts, are dealing with a ton of injuries right now. Their only win over the L3 weeks came at the expense of a Chicago team that was forced to turn to its third string QB for the majority of the game. That win is their only one of more than a touchdown all year. Meanwhile, three of the Colts' five losses have been by four points or less. So that regression I spoke of above is already starting to take hold. Many are now touting Rodgers' completion percentage over the L3 games, but note that LW vs. a suspect Falcons defense, he averaged only 5.4 yards per attempt. That won't get it done when trying to win by any kind of margin. While the fact the Colts are only 3-10 SU/5-8 ATS as a dog of 7 or more since '12 worries me, some of those games were w/o Luck, Andrew that is. 8* Indianapolis |
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11-06-16 | Saints v. 49ers +4.5 | Top | 41-23 | Loss | -105 | 67 h 13 m | Show |
10* San Francisco (4:05 ET): Are the 49ers worth a regular endorsement? No. But, coming off six straight ATS losses (longest active streak in the league) and a bye, they are most certainly worth a look here in a situation that appears to be most favorable. Not only are they off their bye week, but they happen to be catching New Orleans off a game against Seattle. I've regularly discussed the "car crash" type effect playing the Seahawks can have on a team the following week. In fact, my *10* Game of the Week selection for Week 8 was against the Cardinals, who were coming off the now-infamous 6-6 tie the week prior vs. Russell Wilson and company. So last week's surprise 25-20 win over Seattle somewhat works AGAINST the Saints here. It may not be quite the horrible situation that Arizona found itself in LW, but it's certainly worth fading New Orleans here. I think that most folks, myself included, came into this NFL season thinking that the Saints' best years were behind them. Sure enough, they opened 0-3 SU and things were looking very bad w/ a leaky defense that was the worst in the entire league in 2015. But there's been a bit of a stunning turnaround over the last month w/ the team winning three of four. However, those three wins all have been by five points or less and by a grand total of nine points! Two of them were also at the Mercedes Benz Superdome, where they are always much better, and as dogs. The third SU win also saw them catching points, at San Diego, and that was quite the fortunate victory. The offense gained only 275 yds total in the contest and the team trailed by double digits w/ less than five minutes to play. However, TWO late fumbles by the Chargers basically gifted the Saints the win there. New Orleans can be a great value as a home dog, but not as a road favorite. Since 201o, they are just 10-19 ATS in the latter role, including 2-8 L10. The last time was Week 10 of LY and they were destroyed in Washington, 47-14. I know the 49ers don't offer much on paper, but a trip out to the West Coast can always be trouble. Don't believe me? Well, how about the fact New Orleans has lost EIGHT straight road games vs. the NFC West, going 1-7 ATS! Four of those games saw them actually favored. I still believe Colin Kaepernick to be Chip Kelly's best option under center. The bye week has allowed for RB Carlos Hyde to return to the lineup. Take the points. 10* San Francisco |
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11-06-16 | Eagles v. Giants -2 | Top | 23-28 | Win | 100 | 64 h 9 m | Show |
8* NY Giants (1:00 ET): I've heard a lot of crowing this week about how "the Eagles can't possibly drop to 0-3 (SU) in the division, can they?" Sure they can. After all, let us not forget that this team was projected to finish last in the NFC East coming into the year. They are now 4-3 SU, which quite frankly is as many wins as I thought they'd have all season. The stunning 3-0 SU start altered the collective viewpoint of Carson Wentz and company quite drastically. But a quick check back of that early season win streak reveals two of their victims were Cleveland and Chicago, the former being the clear cut choice for worst team in the league. (Bears are w/o a doubt bottom five). Since that 3-0 SU start, the Eagles are just 1-3 SU. Recall that I had them in that one win, but that was against a Minnesota team when the market had clearly shifted too far against the Eagles (they were +3 in the 21-10 upset). Here, they are in off an OT loss to Dallas (Sunday Night Game) and playing on the road against a rested, division foe. I believe them to be ripe to get blown out. Lay the short number here. The Giants, as just mentioned, are off their bye week. They'd won B2B games prior, beating Baltimore and Los Angeles (in London), both by relatively close margins. Whereas sometimes we see the bye halt a team's momentum, I do not believe that will be the case w/ the G-Men here. This team has won six of the last eight years coming off its bye and I like 1st year HC Ben McAdoo to continue the trend here. While the rushing attack has been anemic to say the least, I still love the passing game w/ Eli Manning throwing to a bevy of quality receivers, Odell Beckham Jr chief among them. The Giants defense is much improved this season as it has allowed more than 24 points only one time. It's pretty shocking to see that this team has zero wins by more than seven points this year, but I'm calling for this to be their largest MOV to date. This is also a big revenge spot for the G-Men as the Eagles have swept them each of the last two seasons. But that was w/ a different coach and different personnel. Rookie QB Carson Wentz has shown major signs of regression over the last month as he's averaging a paltry 6.69 yards per pass attempt. The loss of WR Josh Huff certainly won't help the passing game and it also hurts the Eagles' special teams as he was their kick returner. This offense has averaged only 256 YPG the L3 weeks. Though their defense has kept them afloat, the Eagles are still being outgained for the year. 8* NY Giants |
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11-06-16 | Jaguars +7.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 14-19 | Win | 100 | 64 h 9 m | Show |
10* Jacksonville (1:00 ET): I readily admit that it appears as if these are two teams headed in very opposite directions. But I'm serious when I say that you should not be surprised if, at the end of the day, the Jags pull the outright upset here. I'm expecting a supreme effort here as HC Gus Bradley is now officially on the hot seat after his team was drubbed last Thursday by Tennessee, 36-22. The reality is that the game was not as close as the final score indicates as Jacksonville trailed 27-0 at halftime and 36-8 early in the fourth quarter. The loss resulted in a change at offensive coordinator w/ Nathanial Hackett replacing Greg Olson. The bottom line is something had to be done w/ the team averaging only 19.9 PPG to this point. Take the points in this one. Kansas City has won three straight since the bye, all by relatively comfortable margins. But there's some attrition going on here w/ starting QB Alex Smith and RB Spencer Ware both out for this game. There hasn't been much adjustment by the oddsmakers in the wake of those injuries, which is surprising to me. Granted, neither is a star player, but a team being w/o its starting QB and RB is pretty big time. I think too much stock is being put into Nick Foles, whom I've never had much regard for. Foles is familiar with Andy Reid (played for him in Philly) and looked good enough last week, but that was against an awful Colts defense. By the way, the Chiefs also just put RB Jamaal Charles on IR, so that means Charcandrick West will carry the load in the backfield. West has NEVER been an every down back in this league before. I think that the extra time to prepare is going to be huge for Jacksonville here. When they were blown out by Tennessee, it was a bad spot as it was short week and they were off a tough loss to the Raiders. In many ways, this reminds me of the Bills in Week 3 (whom I played) as they had just made a change at OC after a Thurs night loss. The Bills wound up upsetting the Cardinals the following week, jumpstarting a nice run for them. The Jags' defense is pretty good actually (13th in yards per game allowed) and facing a short-handed KC offense, they'll keep the team in the game. This is the most points the Chiefs have been asked to lay at the betting window to date and they are already 0-2 ATS when laying six or more. 10* Jacksonville |
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11-06-16 | Cowboys v. Browns +7 | Top | 35-10 | Loss | -108 | 64 h 8 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (1:00 ET): I'd say we are getting fairly close to the "Dallas' bubble" bursting here. That's not to say the Cowboys are going to fall apart down the stretch, miss the playoffs or even fail to win their division. But the team has now covered six in a row following LW's overtime decision over Philadelphia. That was a game where they were hardly ever covering the five-point spread (there was an 11-minute stretch in the 2Q when they led by a touchdown) until the GW TD was scored in OT. Yes, they did outgain the Eagles by a ton (460-291), but that discrepancy certainly widened after the one drive in OT. (Also, that total yardage discrepancy could be used as further proof to play against the Eagles this week - see elsewhere in this three-pack). Of note to me is that Dallas has only twice been favored by more than a single points this season. Other than last week, Chicago was the other instance. Both times were at home. Here, they are decisive road favorite and getting the vast majority of public support. This smells like a "trap game" to me. Take the points. Now, I can understand any potential unwillingness to support Cleveland, the league's lone winless team. The odds will say the Browns are going to finish this season winless (they'll be a dog in every game), a dubious distinction only "achieved" by the '08 Lions in a 16-game slate. But the Browns have at least been competitive this year. Half of their eight losses have come by six points or less. Last week, they led the Jets 20-7 at half, only to lose 31-28. They actually didn't cover there (closed +2.5), nor did they cover in games they led outright earlier in the season vs. Baltimore and Washington. But neither of those numbers were as large as this one is. Injuries on both sides of the ball (secondary and offensive line) for the Cowboys threaten to keep this game closer than it "ought to be." Both Barry Church and Mo Claiborne are out in the defensive backfield for this one. As of press time, it remains unsettled as to whom will be under center for the Browns, but the reality is it's an irrelevant call as it won't affect my play whatsoever. Whether it's rookie Cody Kessler or veteran Josh McCown, either will have WR Corey Coleman to throw the ball to. Coleman has 173 receiving yards in the two games that he's played in. This is the first time that Dallas will be asked to lay at least a TD on the road since the 2011 season. 8* Cleveland |
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10-31-16 | Vikings v. Bears +5 | Top | 10-20 | Win | 100 | 20 h 6 m | Show |
10* Chicago (8:25 ET): This is quite the interesting game to handicap. We have one of the league's perceived best teams (Vikings) laying a short number to one of the perceived worst (Bears) and predictably the majority of bettors are all over the road chalk in this one. But alarm bells should be going off when you see how the line has moved throughout the week. This appears to be a classic "pros vs. joes" matchup w/ the sharp dollars on the home dog. If you're a regular client/follower of mine, then you already know that I'm a firm believer in the idea of regression to the mean. Well, Minnesota is 18-4 ATS its L22 games. But last week found them in this exact same role of road chalk and they lost outright at Philadelphia. As the public continues "warming up" to the Vikes, I predict that sparkling ATS record to take a significant hit. Meanwhile, the Bears are a dreadful 1-6 SU/ATS this year and going back to last season, just 2-8 SU/3-7 ATS at home! These respective numbers HAVE to start moving closer to the average, no? I'm taking the points. The big story w/ Chicago is that Jay Cutler is back as the starting QB. Though Brian Hoyer put up some big numbers in Cutler's absence, they didn't necessarily mean anything in the grand scheme of things. Cutler is also a clear upgrade over the only other QB option, Matt Barkley, who had to go most of the way in the team's loss last week to Green Bay. Of interest here is that the Bears have had a long time to prepare for this game, going from a Thursday night game to a Monday night affair. While this Bears offense may rank dead last in the league in points per game (15.9), they're actually a respectable 18th in yards per game, which tells me they've left many scoring opportunities "on the table." This offense is actually a lot better than its given credit for as is evident by the fact it rolled up over 900 yards in close losses to the Colts and Jaguars. Meanwhile, this Minnesota offense is nowhere near as good as its given credit for. With Adrian Peterson out of the lineup, the running game has become persona non grata, averaging only 74.3 YPG. Their season high for yards on the ground in a game is a paltry 104. They are last in the league at 2.6 yds per carry. The offensive line is not particularly good. I'm not ready to anoint QB Sam Bradford as anything special either. He looked like the "old Bradford" in LW's loss at Philly. In three road games this year, the Vikings have scored a total of TWO offensive TD's and one came in garbage time (0:37 left) LW. This team is a very pedestrian 12th in YPG differential (Chicago is 17th!). In what projects as a low-scoring game, taking the points is the obvious way to go. 10* Chicago |
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10-30-16 | Chargers +4.5 v. Broncos | Top | 19-27 | Loss | -106 | 50 h 36 m | Show |
10* San Diego (4:05 ET): More often than not, I've been on the Chargers this year. This play will make it four straight weeks. I've cashed them each of the last three, including B2B outright wins over Denver and Atlanta. Save for a 38-14 blowout of lowly Jacksonville in Week 2 (which I was also on!), every Chargers game this year has been close. As in decided by one possession. Their largest loss this year is six points and that was an overtime game (Week 1 vs. KC) where they blew a 27-10 fourth quarter lead. I'll continue to stump that this team is better than its overall record (now 3-4 SU) as they have a YTD point differential of +21, which is better than all but nine teams in this league. They really dominated Denver at home and are capable of beating them again. Take the points. That Week 6 win over the Broncos, which came as 3.5-pt underdogs on a Thursday night, really saw San Diego assert itself from the start. They never trailed and actually led 21-3 early in the fourth quarter. This being the Chargers, they led Denver back in it and things got far too close for comfort by the end. It ended up a 21-13 win after a Denver Hail Mary attempt fell short. Now, Broncos supporters will want to point to the absence of HC Gary Kubiak from the sidelines in that one. But I've never been one to rate Kubiak as one of the stronger coaches in the league. I still think SD is due to start winning more division games; the win two weeks ago snapped a 10-game SU losing streak to AFC West foes. Their last road division win came over Oakland back in 2014. Isn't it about time for that to change? Last week, when I took SD over Atlanta, I noted the bad situation the Falcons found themselves in. They were off a tough, close loss at Seattle the week prior. Playing the Seahawks often has a negative carryover effect to the following game because they are so physical. Well, here, Denver is working on a short week as they played Monday night. Though the defense re-established itself in the 27-9 win over Houston, Trevor Siemian and the offense really didn't impress. Now that group is w/o starting RB CJ Anderson. The Broncos also have injury issues on the defensive side of the ball. San Diego has its own injury issues, but have already demonstrated an ability to overcome them. They've also demonstrated an ability to cover as underdogs, particularly on the road when priced between +3.5 and +7. They're 7-0 ATS L7 in that role. San Diego was my pick for most improved this season while I had Denver regressing. I'm not coming off either point. 10* San Diego |
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10-30-16 | Patriots v. Bills +6 | Top | 41-25 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 31 m | Show |
10* Buffalo (1:00 ET): Obviously, the focus here will be on the revenge angle as back in Week 4, the Bills handed the Patriots their only loss of the year to date via a 16-0 shutout. Of course, that was against a banged-up, third-string rookie QB (Jacoby Brissett). Since Tom Brady returned from his suspension, the Pats have been virtually untouchable. They've won and covered all three games, beating Cleveland, Cincinnati & Pittsburgh (all AFC North teams!) each by double digits. New England's 6-1 ATS record is the league's best currently. Because of the aforementioned revenge angle, this line has become inflated. The Bills still have a top five scoring differential in the league and are a live dog here. Take the points. Perhaps the Bills were a bit of a "bubble" in the sense that entered LW w/ the league's top scoring differential and riding a four-game SU/ATS win streak. They got upset at Miami, losing 28-25. While outgained significantly there (454-267), thanks to 200+ yards rushing from the Dolphins' Jay Ajayi, it should be noted that they entered the fourth quarter w/ a 17-14 lead. It was actually a 17-6 game entering the final minute of the third quarter. As anticipated, the Bills defense has been much better in the second year under Rex Ryan, allowing just 18.7 PPG. Last week marked just the second time they allowed more than 20 and again, they had given up only 6 through 44 minutes. At the same time, this offense has continued to improve, led by emerging QB Tyrod Taylor. Five of the last six weeks, they've scored 25+ points. That makes them very attractive as a home underdog. Yes, Bill Belichick has NEVER been swept by an AFC East rival in his tenure here. But that is precisely what has helped inflate this line. Buffalo is getting roughly the same respect a Roethlisberger-less Steelers team did last week and that is something I patently disagree with. While New England has absolutely established itself as the premier team in thiss league right now, I would argue that this will be their toughest opponent to date. I've mentioned this before, but while NE is 4th in points per game allowed, they are 14th in yards. That "bend but don't break" approach typically cannot last. The Bills are 13-6 ATS as an underdog the L3 years, including 7-2 if priced between +3.5 and +9.5. They're 2-0 SU/ATS as a home dog of +3.5 to +7. 10* Buffalo |
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10-30-16 | Cardinals v. Panthers -3 | Top | 20-30 | Win | 100 | 47 h 31 m | Show |
10* Carolina (1:00 ET): This is an absolutely horrible spot for Arizona. Not only are they off a game against division rival Seattle, a team I've previously identified as having a "car crash" type effect on its opponents' next game, but that was an extraordinarily physical game that went 75 minutes to a tie. If you're a regular client of mine, then you know I played against Atlanta last week as they were coming off a physical, down to the wire game against Seattle the week prior. The Falcons ended up losing outright, wilting late, 33-30 in OT. To add insult to injury, kickoff was moved here to 1:00 ET, which is 11 AM local for Arizona. Meanwhile, Carolina is rested and ready coming off its bye. I say lay the short number in this one. The Panthers being 1-5 SU and ATS so far is one of the real shockers in the league. This is the defending NFC Champion after all. Their only win was here at home over lowly San Francisco in Week 2, 46-27, a game they were favored by 11.5. Since then, it's been four consecutive outright losses. The first two were to Minnesota and Atlanta, both of whom have turned out to be division leaders. They outgained the Vikings, but were undone by a -3 turnover margin there. The 17-14 loss to Tampa Bay again saw the TO bug rear its ugly head and that can be pinned on backup QB Derek Anderson as Cam Newton (concussion) had to sit out that game. The defense was downright atrocious in a 41-38 loss at New Orleans. Despite what you've just read, Carolina is still outgaining its opponents by 22.8 yards per game! The last seven times the Panthers have been a home favorite of three points or less, they've won and covered six times. The bye allowed them to get healthy, particularly in the secondary w/ James Bradberry and Robert McClain back. The offense is 13th in the league in yards per play and third in # of 10+ yard plays. I realize that the Cardinals, like the Panthers, are better than their record and have revenge for LY's NFC Title Game disaster on this field. But revenge alone will not be enough to overcome what is an absolutely horrible spot situationally. This is their eighth straight game w/o a bye. 10* Carolina |
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10-24-16 | Texans +9 v. Broncos | Top | 9-27 | Loss | -112 | 20 h 1 m | Show |
10* Houston (8:30 ET): Last Sunday night saw Houston "steal one" at home against Indianapolis. I had the Texans, but must say that even I had written that one off as a loss early in the fourth quarter. They trailed 23-9 w/ seven minutes to go and QB Brock Osweiler was looking quite horrible. But then all of a sudden, Osweiler threw two late TD passes (Colts defense is not good) and the game went to overtime. A field goal later and Houston now finds itself at 4-2 and in first place of the moribund AFC South. All four wins have come at home and the two losses have been on the road. Thus, on paper, it certainly doesn't appear to be a great spot this week visiting Denver and its top-flight defense. The big story here will be Osweiler facing his former team, but for me, the key has been a significant line move. The value here is now on the Texans. After starting the year 4-0 SU, the Broncos have dropped B2B games. They were favored in both losses and the offense has sputtered. Rookie Paxton Lynch getting called into duty clearly hurt the team at home vs. Atlanta two weeks ago. But then last week at San Diego, they were outplayed w/ Trevor Siemian back under center. It was a 21-3 game midway through the fourth quarter when the Chargers let them back in as the Chargers are wont to do. Remember that Denver was expected to regress here in 2016; last year saw them go a remarkable 11-3 SU in "close games" (defined as those decided by 8 pts or less). This is the most points they have been asked to lay in any game so far this season. For the sake of comparison, they were only asked to lay six points here at home to the Indianapolis team Houston just beat. The Broncos only covered against the Colts due to a pair of defensive scores. Texans RB Lamar Miller had a breakout game vs. the Colts (149 yards). It would probably be wrong to expect him to duplicate that production against the much better Broncos defense, but expect to see him featured here. Denver has had 10 days off between games here, seemingly an advantage, but again I point to this inflated number. Not only is this the most points Denver has had to lay in any game this year, it's the most Houston has gotten. Only four times since 2012 have the Texans been a dog of a TD or more. Last year, it happened just one time, on a Monday night, and they went to Cincinnati and won outright. Not saying they'll win SU here, but they'll certainly keep it close. Denver is 1-8 ATS off a division game the L3 seasons. 10* Houston |
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10-23-16 | Seahawks v. Cardinals -2 | Top | 6-6 | Loss | -105 | 78 h 47 m | Show |
10* Arizona (8:25 ET): It seems as if no one is really giving the Cardinals a shot here, which seems odd, because at the start of the season there is simply no way this line would have been below -3. I see a ton of value on the home team in this spot. Not only does Arizona have the better point differential (compared to Seattle) at this point (+49), they are actually sixth in the league in that department! That's on the strength of two blowout wins, one coming in their last game, which was a 28-3 Monday night massacre of the Jets. Furthermore, Arizona also is #1 in the league in YPG differential right now at +73.7 (Seattle is #2 at +69). It's not as if the Seahawks weren't lucky to survive Atlanta last week, a game they were at home and off a bye. Seattle has covered each of their last three visits to University of Phoenix Stadium. But that's a little bit misleading in the sense that the hideous Ryan Lindley started one of those games. Also, they lost last year's regular season finale, where the result was meaningless to them and Carson Palmer was pulled at halftime. It should be pointed out that turnovers are what doomed the Cardinals in two of their three losses this year. Against Buffalo and the Rams, they turned the ball over five times each. Take better care of the football and they should be just fine here. Note that in the other four games, the Cards haven't turned the ball over at all! In games where the line is three points or less, this team is on a 10-2 SU/9-3 ATS run. Furthermore, they've shown no ill-effects when on a short week, winning and covering both times the week after they've played on MNF the L3 years. Seattle is averaging only 89 yards rushing per game and remember that QB Russell Wilson is not 100 percent. As alluded to above, they were very fortunate to escape w/ a win last week against Atlanta. They won only 26-24, a home game where they were off a bye. Richard Sherman got away w/ a somewhat egregious pass interference in the waning moments against Julio Jones. The Falcons outgained them in the contest as well. In four home games, Arizona's defense has given up an average of just 12.5 PPG. With Seattle's defense, there's a chance Kam Chancellor will not play. 10* Arizona |
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10-23-16 | Patriots v. Steelers +7.5 | Top | 27-16 | Loss | -120 | 74 h 42 m | Show |
10* Pittsburgh (4:25 ET): The "world" figures to be on New England here as not only are the Patriots rolling, but the Steelers are w/o Ben Roethlisberger. That seemingly puts the Black & Gold at a decisive disadvantage, BUT as valuable as Big Ben is, this seems to be a bit of an overadjustment by the oddsmakers. This game was set to be a pick 'em, pre-Roethlisberger injury. For all his own personal exploits, New England QB Tom Brady is only 7-9 ATS as a road favorite of a TD or more in his career. That included a woeful 2-7 ATS mark going back to Week 16 of the 2012 season! They did cover at Cleveland a few weeks ago, but that's the Browns. Even w/ Landry Jones at the helm here, Pittsburgh will be a far more formidable challenge. Take the points. How rare is it to find the Steelers in this price range, at home? The last time they were getting at least a touchdown, in Pittsburgh, was the 2000 season vs. Tennessee. They covered that game, for the record, losing only 23-20. Even getting a FG or more is rare for this team at Heinz Field. They are 5-1-2 ATS the L8 times that's happened including an outright victory LY over Arizona, 25-13, which was w/ Landry Jones starting at QB! They were also a home dog two week prior w/ Mike Vick and pushed against Baltimore, a game they lost by three in overtime. Four of the last seven times they've been a home dog of at least three points, they've won the game outright. Jones proved he could do this last year and he has a tremendous group of skill position players around him to help get the job done. New England is giving up only 15.2 PPG, which is tops in the league right now. But that's also very misleading as they are only 12th in yards per game allowed. As alluded to above, the Steelers have quite the set of skill position players to test this defense. A case could be made that Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown are each the best at their respective positions. Pittsburgh has won all three home games this season. Predictably, the Patriots are the most popular side of the week. This is a chance to buy low, really low, on Pittsburgh. 10* Pittsburgh |
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10-23-16 | Chargers +6.5 v. Falcons | Top | 33-30 | Win | 100 | 74 h 32 m | Show |
10* San Diego (4:05 ET): I would think at this point that it's been established that the Chargers are better than their record. I had them last Thursday, as a home dog, when they beat Denver outright. That was a much needed result as the team had started 1-4 SU, but the four losses had come by a TOTAL of 14 points (all by six or less). Every one of those four losses was decided in the final minute. They led Kansas City 27-10 (on the road) entering the 4th quarter, but lost 33-27 in overtime. They gave up a long TD pass late in a 26-22 loss at Indianapolis. Two fourth quarter fumbles were converted into touchdowns by New Orleans in a 35-34 game in Week 4. A 34-31 loss at Oakland saw them blow another lead and botch the potential game-tying FG. Despite the now 2-4 SU record, San Diego has the league's 11th best point differential at +18. I love the way the schedule sets up for the Chargers here. They've been off for 10 days while Atlanta had a tough game in Seattle last week. While the Falcons certainly earned some respect in covering the 7-point spread (lost 26-24), we've consistently seen teams struggle the week after playing the Seahawks. They're the "new Steelers" in that regard. I think it's logical to expect a bit of an Atlanta letdown the week after playing such a tough, physical game. Another break for San Diego here is that this is a late game and not a 1:00 ET start. Also, let us not forget how the Falcons started 5-0 SU last year and went just 3-8 SU the rest of the way. Maybe the win their weak division (NFC South) by default, but I'm still not entirely sold on this team. This game has all the makings of a shootout. I know San Diego gained only 265 total yards last week, but that was against Denver. For the season, Philip Rivers and the offense are averaging 28.8 PPG. They shouldn't have problems moving the ball against an Atlanta defense that is 24th in yards and 26th in points allowed. I love rookie TE Hunter Henry. Were it not for a fluky-good rate on third downs, the Falcons defensive numbers might look even worse. They have six starters either in their first or second year. The Chargers have covered six straight times as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points. Atlanta is just 2-7 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points the L3 seasons. San Diego has not won - or covered - against Atlanta dating all the way back to 1988! That has to change, right? 10* San Diego |
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10-23-16 | Bucs v. 49ers +1 | Top | 34-17 | Loss | -108 | 63 h 16 m | Show |
8* San Francisco (4:05 ET): Tampa Bay opened as a road favorite in this game. How rare is that? Well, the Bucs haven't been a road favorite since Week 1 of the 2013 season! They are just 2-7 SU and ATS the L9 times in the chalk role, period, including an outright loss at home to the Rams a couple of weeks ago. Now the 49ers will rarely receive my endorsement, but this happens to be one of the select times I think they should be favored this season. It's been an ugly stretch of football for Chip Kelly's team which has lost five in a row, failing to cover every time in the process. Note they have a YTD point differential of -58, which includes a 28-0 win in the opener against the Rams. However, Tampa Bay isn't too far ahead of that, having been outscored by 48 pts thus far, in one less game. As mentioned before, they lost to the Rams. Some sharp money has shown up on the Niners here and I agree w/ the line move. Tampa is off its bye. They've already won twice on the road, over Atlanta and Carolina, but those are both division opponents (i.e. they are familiar with those venues). Making this team unattractive in this price range is the fact they have been held to 17 pts or fewer three times in five games. Twice they've been held to only seven! Though they upset Carolina two weeks ago on Monday Night Football, they were outgained in that contest 414-315. What enabled them to prevail 17-14 as six-point dogs was a +4 turnover margin. Keep in mind that they faced Derek Anderson and not Cam Newton as well. Colin Kaepernick is once again for the 49ers. Controversy aside, he should be. Blaine Gabbert is not a NFL-caliber QB. Not sure what Kelly was thinking there. For a half at least, San Fran looked competent offensively w/ Kaepernick at the helm LW vs. Buffalo. This offense has yet to gain more than 320 total yds in a game this year, which is mind-blowing when you think about it. Thankfully, TB allows over 400 per game on the road. The Niners defense catches a break in that the Bucs' offense will be w/o both Doug Martin and Vincent Jackson. Even with that +4 margin in the last game, TB remains 28th in the league in TO differential. QB Winston is mistake prone. This will be a rare win for the 49ers. 8* San Francisco |
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10-23-16 | Vikings v. Eagles +3 | Top | 10-21 | Win | 100 | 70 h 29 m | Show |
8* Philadelphia (1:00 ET): Oh, how quickly the pendulum has swung on the Eagles. Rookie QB Carson Wentz was the "toast of the town" in Philly after a surprising 3-0 SU start, but the team has come back down to earth following B2B losses to Detroit and Washington. Note that the Eagles were road favorites in both of those SU defeats, but here they are back in a more comfortable role of underdog (at home) where they have already pulled multiple upsets this year (at Chicago, vs. Pittsburgh). Yes, Minnesota is unbeaten and off a bye, not to mention an almost unfathomable 18-3 against the spread since the start of last season. But I expect the sportsbooks to start to "get some back" at the Vikings' expense now that the public has decided to throw its collective support behind them, on the road no less. Take the points. I tip my cap to HC Mike Zimmer and the rest of this Vikings' staff. They have overcome a ton of adversity in getting this team off to a 5-0 SU/ATS start. QB Teddy Bridgewater was lost for the season before it even started. Adrian Peterson hasn't played since Week 2. Sam Bradford is getting a ton of credit right now, but the offense is averaging only a pedestrian 303 YPG. The key has been the defense, which is second in the league in yards allowed and first in points. Ironically, in Philadelphia, it was Wentz getting too much of the credit when it was the defense that was really carrying the Eagles' load. Minnesota is averaging only 71 YPG rushing through five weeks and I see them struggling to move the ball against a defense which is tied for third in points allowed (15.6) and sixth in yards. In a game expected to be low-scoring like this one, a home underdog becomes very attractive. Minnesota has been a road favorite only three times in this 18-3 ATS run of theirs. Those three games have resulted in an outright loss, a three-point win and a game earlier this year (against Tennessee) where they failed to score an offensive touchdown, but somehow managed to pull out a cover. Such inefficiencies will almost assuredly result in an outright loss here. The Eagles haven't played at home in a month, so I expect a real inspired effort from them - on both sides of the ball. One final point that I'd like to make is that Minnesota is a very fortunate +11 in the turnover department so far. That can't be sustained. 8* Philadelphia |
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10-23-16 | Raiders v. Jaguars | Top | 33-16 | Loss | -125 | 70 h 29 m | Show |
8* Jacksonville (1:00 ET): These were two of the real "trendy" teams coming into 2016. So far, only Oakland (4-2 SU) has lived up to advanced billing, but the Raiders have also been outscored by 11 pts (a division worst) to this point. I faded them last week as they hosted Kansas City and Andy Reid again proved adept at coming off bye as the Chiefs won that one going away, 26-10. Meanwhile, after an 0-3 start, Jacksonville has posted B2B wins. They were off their bye last week and despite falling into a seemingly insurmountable hole, they came away w/ a 17-16 win at Chicago. Long-term, I don't have a ton of faith in either of these two squads, but here I like the value on the Jags as Oakland is receiving far too much support as the short road underdog in an early start time. Oakland's four wins this year have come by 1, 7, 1 and 3 points. They are 3-0 SU on the road, with every win coming out East. That's surprising as historically the Silver and Black have been very bad in these early start times. Even more surprising is what a public team the Raiders have become this year. But they're lucky not to have a losing record. In Week 1, they won at New Orleans on a two-point conversion. After being beaten outright at home by Atlanta in Week 2, they were outgained in both road wins over Tennessee and Baltimore. The win over the Ravens saw them on the wrong end of a rather massive 412-261 discrepancy in total yards. Incredibly, the Raiders have actually been outgained in ALL SIX games this year! When the beat Baltimore, it was courtesy of a last second TD. San Diego botched a potential game-tying field goal the following week. Last week, they were pretty much dominated by the Chiefs and didn't score a single point in the second half. Jacksonville's offense has been tabbed as "disappointing" to this point, but they are only five touchdowns off LY's pace. I can see them making that up here. Expect a big game from QB Blake Bortles going against the league's worst ranked defense in terms of total yards (445 YPG). The Raiders are a bit fortunate that they're giving up "only" 27.2 PPG given that total yardage. Meanwhile, Jacksonville's defense has been much improved this year (8th in yards allowed). Oakland's offense struggles to run the ball and Jacksonville hasn't given up 100 yds rushing in four of five games. 8* Jacksonville |
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10-20-16 | Bears +8.5 v. Packers | Top | 10-26 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 19 m | Show |
8* Chicago (8:25 ET): With the Cubs fighting for their playoff lives out in LA, little attention is likely to be paid to Chicago's football team this evening, but I feel they're a good value getting more than a touchdown against a Green Bay team that no longer has the look of a Super Bowl contender. As dire as things may look for the Bears right now at 1-5 (both SU and ATS), they've actually outgained each of their L2 opponents (Indianapolis & Jacksonville) only to come up just short on the scoreboard in both instances. For an uninspired a choice as Brian Hoyer may seem to be for this team, he's actually the first Bears QB in HISTORY to throw for 300+ yards in four consecutive games. I'm taking the points here. Though they're being outscored by exactly one touchdown per game, the Bears have actually outgained their opponents this year (by roughly 30 yards per game). Moving the ball has not really been an issue as two weeks ago, they gained over 500 total yds against an admittedly shoddy Colts defense. That's actually the only game though that they've scored more than 20 pts this season. But that's a little unfair as they are actually dead last in yards per point (22.3), a highly unsustainable number and a sign that increased scoring should be on the horizon. In that 29-23 loss to the Colts, they finished w/ a +126 edge in total yards, but gave up 10 points late to lose the game. Last week hosting Jacksonville was even more painful as they blew a 13-0 lead in the fourth quarter, again giving up 10 pts in the final five minutes, including the GW TD on a 51-yd TD pass w/ just 2:49 remaining. This team is better than its record, in my opinion. Meanwhile, there's major trouble w/ this Packers offense. Last week's 30-16 home loss to Dallas was a real "eye-opener" for me as GB was thoroughly dominated. This offense, once considered a juggernaut, has really struggled as well and that includes QB Aaron Rodgers. The Pack scored only one TD in four red zone opportunities LW and Rodgers turned it over twice himself. Running the ball has been a problem as injuries have decimated their backfield to the point they had to bring in Knile Davis from the Chiefs. Last week saw GB run for only 78 yds on 24 carries. Speaking of injuries, their defense may be w/o their three top cornerbacks in this game. The Bears will score more than anticipated and keep this one close throughout. 8* Chicago |
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10-17-16 | Jets +8.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 3-28 | Loss | -130 | 21 h 3 m | Show |
10* NY Jets (8:25 ET): The Jets "fly" into Arizona a desperate team. They're 1-4 SU w/ three losses in a row coming by double digits. The schedule has been quite unforgiving thus far as they've had to play four playoff teams from a year ago and those four opponents account for the losses. The Jets themselves were probably the best team NOT to make the playoffs last year (finished 10-6), but already the playoffs are looking like a pipe dream here in 2016. Thankfully, Arizona also seems to be regressing this year. They did manage to beat the 49ers last time out (11 days ago!) w/o Carson Palmer (who returns tonight), but this team is still only 2-3 SU and has already dropped a pair of home games. While an outright win by the Jets would surprise me somewhat, I think this is simply too many points for a struggling Cardinals team to lay. Last week, the Jets lost to the Steelers by a score of 31-13. But that game was closer than the final score indicates and New York actually led 13-7 late in the first half. The previous two games saw them doomed by turnovers, which essentially all falls on struggling QB Ryan Fitzpatrick. He threw six INT's in the 24-3 loss to the Chiefs and then the team was -3 in TO's in its 27-17 loss to Seattle. Strange as this may seem to write, I think this visit to Arizona actually represents a drop in class from the Jets' previous two opponents. Key is that HC Todd Bowles knows the Cardinals' system having previously served there as the DC. I expect him to bring a lot of pressure against an embattled Arizona offense line, which is likely to be w/o both Evan Mathis and Mike Iupati. Palmer hasn't looked the same this year nor has the Arizona offense. Without their starting QB, the Cards did ring up 33 points against the Niners (which was good for me as I had the Over), but they did so despite only gaining 288 total yards! Note that 17 pts came off turnovers as those three scoring drives totaled only 41 yards! There was a safety as well. Turnovers had been an issue in the previous two games that Palmer has started as the team has TEN of them. I expect them to struggle w/ the Jets strength here, which is the defensive line. In what figures to be a relatively low scoring games, look for the road dog to stay within the number. Not only is Arizona 2-8 ATS its L10 appearances on Monday Night Football, they are 1-11 ATS L12 times they've been a home fave of 7.5 to 10 pts. Don't discount the look ahead factor to Seattle (next Sun night) either. 10* NY Jets |
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10-16-16 | Colts v. Texans -2.5 | Top | 23-26 | Win | 100 | 54 h 29 m | Show |
8* Houston (8:25 ET): The AFC South is once again shaping up as the worst division in the sport. Leading the way currently is Houston at 3-2, but their offense has generally been very bad and they've been outscored by 22 points in those five games. However, I have little respect for an Indianapolis side that has given up 148 points through five games, tied for the worst average in the AFC (alongside the winless Browns). The Colts were outgained LW, 522-396 by Chicago, despite winning 29-23. That was the second time in three weeks they had to rally from a 4th quarter deficit to win. Those happen to be their only wins. I feel that GM Ryan Grigson has done an atrocious job w/ this roster as Andrew Luck is surrounded by a lot of garbage. Even though they are w/o JJ Watt, the Texans defense is still allowing just 20.8 points per game. Here at home, that average drops down to 15.3 PPG. All three teams that have visited NRG Stadium this year have been held to 20 pts or fewer. Even in that embarrassing road loss to New England, the defense allowed only 282 total yards! Last week at Minnesota was the worst performance of the year in giving up 31 pts and 351 yards to an unbeaten team. This will be a far better matchup for Houston as the Indianapolis' offensive line is just putrid, having given up the most sacks in the league. As for the Texans offense, QB Brock Osweiler has really struggled so far. But I think he should lean on Lamar Miller here as the RB is top 10 in rush yardage. So it's only a matter of time before Miller gets into the end zone for the first time. The history of this divisional rivalry has been all Colts w/ them holding a 23-5 SU all-time advantage. But Houston finally snapped a six-game SU and ATS slide w/ a 16-10 win and cover in the second meeting last year. Colts defenders will point to the absence of Andrew Luck in that game. But, as noted above, this is perhaps the worst supporting cast Luck has ever had. The Colts defense ranks 30th in the league in yards allowed (only Saints and Raiders are worse). Not only are they giving up 410.6 YPG, a Pagano era worst, they are allowing 29.6 PPG. I'm calling for Houston's best offensive performance to date and a cover. Lay the points. 8* Houston |
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10-16-16 | Cowboys v. Packers -4 | Top | 30-16 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 25 m | Show |
8* Green Bay (4:25 ET): This looks like a good value on the favorite, which is something I don't often say in this league. But the lookahead line here was Packers -7. In addition to being a public team to begin with, Dallas is off to a somewhat surprising 4-1 SU start. Those two factors have colluded to drop this number somewhat significantly. I think this "Dak Prescott vs. Tony Romo" debate is nonsense and overlooks the simple fact that when the Cowboys win, it's typically because of the vaunted run game. Unfortunately though, America's Team will be going up against the league's toughest defense to run on here as the Pack are allowing just 43 rush yds per game! No opponent has gained more than 50 yards over land against them through four games! The longest run from scrimmage that they've allowed all year is 14 yards! Lay the points here. Green Bay probably deserved to win by a larger margin than 23-16 last week over the Giants. Here at Lambeau, they really took it to the G-Men, outgaining them 406-221. But they gave up a late, relatively meaningless TD in the final 2:30 of the fourth quarter to blow the cover. It was the only time they weren't covering since halfway through the second quarter. One also has to think the final score there would have been worse had Aaron Rodgers not uncharacteristically thrown two interceptions. You could also, pretty easily, make an argument that the Pack should have beaten the Lions by a wider margin than 34-27. That was game they led 31-3 in the first half. This would be their third straight home game, wrapped around a bye week. It's a good spot for Mike McCarthy's team. Dallas is off a very impressive showing as they crushed Cincinnati at home, 28-14. It was their fourth consecutive win and cover after dropping the season opener (to the Giants) by a single point. Note their offense gained only 328 yds against the Giants' defense (Packers were at 406) while the defense gave up 315 yds (Pack allowed only 221). To me, with the home field advantage, Green Bay is a real bargain here. Dallas hasn't beaten many good teams during this run. Two of the four wins came against Chicago and San Francisco. It was a somewhat lucky win at Washington where they were three-point dogs. By comparison, this line looks like a real bargain considering the Packers are significantly better than the Redskins. The Cowboys have lost five in a row overall to the Pack and in their L4 visits to Lambeau, they've been outscored by an average of 18.5 PPG. Green Bay is 16-3 SU its L19 home games, including 8-0 as a fave in the -3.5 to -7 range where they're also 6-1-1 ATS. 8* Green Bay |
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10-16-16 | Chiefs -1 v. Raiders | Top | 26-10 | Win | 100 | 50 h 5 m | Show |
10* Kansas City (4:05 ET): Handicapping this matchup is almost identical to last week's GOW selection, Buffalo over the Rams. As was the case last week, we have a team whose record does not properly reflect their true level of play. The idea of the Raiders being 5-1 SU is just as foreign to me as was the potential of a 4-1 SU start for the Rams. Consider that Oakland's four wins this season have come by 12 points - total - and one of those (by seven) was at the expense of Tennessee. Twice they've won games by a single point. Last week, they benefited from more San Diego ineptitude as the Lightning Bolts screwed up the potential game-tying field goal. Given they are just 1-2 ATS as favorites so far, perhaps it should not be a shock to find there's been a change in favoritism for this matchup. But such was the case last week w/ the Bills and the Rams. Normally, I shy away from such moves, but there are exceptions and for a second straight week we have one. The proverbial "cherry on top" here is that we are getting Andy Reid off a bye. Perhaps there is no situation in his long NFL coaching career where he has been more profitable. Reid is 15-2 SU and 12-5 ATS his L17 times coming off the bye week. Here, his Chiefs have had two weeks to "stew" over an embarrassing defeat that took place on a Sunday night, 43-14, at the hands of the Steelers. I anticipate we'll see a much different team here. Save for the 4th quarter against San Diego in the opener, we haven't seen much from Alex Smith and the rest of the offense this season. But I'll call for a breakout performance here against one of the league's weakest defenses. Oakland ranks 25th in points (27.4) and are last (32nd) in yards (452.6) per game. They are actually allowing roughly 30 YPG more than the next worst team. The Chiefs look to be getting RB Jamaal Charles back for this critical AFC West matchup. Meanwhile, the Raiders are going to be w/o their starting RB - Latavius Murray - for a second straight game. Also missing will be pair of right tackles, Vadal Alexander and Menelik Watson. Rain is expected for this game and that may limit what Oakland can do offensively. Again, this is a team that has been very lucky to pull out wins over New Orleans (2-pt conversion), Baltimore (-151 in total yds, -12 in first downs) and San Diego (botched FG). Despite the 4-1 SU record, the Raiders are actually -61 in YPG differential and only +5 in point differential. KC is 4-2 SU/ATS as a road fave of three points or less the L2 seasons. 10* Kansas City |
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10-16-16 | Bengals +9 v. Patriots | Top | 17-35 | Loss | -110 | 98 h 33 m | Show |
10* Cincinnati (1:00 ET): If you're like me and view teams like stocks, then this is a supremely "buy low" situation on the Bengals. Marvin Lewis' team really got hammered last week, losing 28-14 in Dallas, a game they actually closed as a 2.5-pt favorite. The loss dropped them to 2-3 straight up and now the market has predictably moved against them for this trip to Foxboro. Of course, that's also due to the performance we saw LW from Tom Brady in his much publicized return from a four-game suspension. He completed 28 of his 40 pass attempts for 400+ yards and three touchdowns. But that came at the expense of the winless Browns. Safe to say, we won't find a bigger spread for Cincinnati all season. Take the points. The Bengals have made the playoffs each of the last five seasons. Their Wild Card flameouts in each of those five years are well known. To make it back for a sixth straight year and gain that elusive first postseason victory under HC Lewis will now take some work. But it should be noted that they have taken on quite the challenging schedule thus far. Their three losses have come against Pittsburgh, Denver and Dallas, who are a collective 12-4 SU. They were favored against two of those teams and were only getting three points in Pittsburgh (lost by eight). I have the Steelers rated a bit better than the Patriots for the record. I understand why the line is this high, but it's a classic overadjustment. This will be just the FIFTH time since the start of the 2011 season that Cincy is getting seven points or more at the betting window. The last time was 2014 and they went to New Orleans and won outright, 27-10. Again, I'm not going to go tout the Patriots too much for what they did last week. They were facing a Cleveland team that was already the worst in the league, down numerous players, and during the course of the game the Browns lost TWO QB's to injury! The lookahead line for this game (posted in the preseason) had New England laying only four points. So again, there's been a seismic shift in public perception on the Bengals. Andy Dalton, for the record, is 22-10 ATS all-time as a dog. It's not as if the Bengals are playing that poorly. They are 10th in yards per game on offense and 11th in yards allowed on defense. New England is among the most public of plays this week and I'll fade them. 10* Cincinnati |
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10-16-16 | Browns +7.5 v. Titans | Top | 26-28 | Win | 100 | 98 h 33 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (1:00 ET): It was a near unprecedented comedy of errors for the Browns LW vs. New England. They were obviously big underdogs coming into the game, but making matters worse was that Tom Brady looked like he was in "mid-season form" (400+ yds) in his first start of 2016. Then, to add injury to insult, the Browns lost not one (Cody Kessler), but two (Charlie Whitehurst) quarterbacks of their own. Kessler will start for a fourth straight time this week. Save for the debacle hosting the Patriots, Cleveland has generally been a competitive team despite their winless record.They led Baltimore 20-0 in Week 2 (lost 25-20 w/ an INT thrown at the goal line on the final play). They took Miami to overtime (I had them +10 there). Washington, they led going into the fourth quarter as well. I'm taking the points here against a team unaccustomed to laying them. The favorite here is Tennessee and this price range is certainly uncharted waters in the Mike Mularkey era. While I concede it might be a tad bit difficult to make a case for the Browns, this is more of a play AGAINST the Titans anyway. I have stumped for the Titans previously, but that's only when taking points. Last week, as a small road dog, they smashed Miami 30-17 w/ a 2:1 edge in total yards. It was arguably the best performance by this football team in many years. I had them in their only other win this year, which was 17-16 over Detroit as six-point dogs. Since the start of the 2014 season, the Titans are an incredibly awful 11-26 ATS overall. Not only will this be the first time they are favored in 2016, it is just the fifth time they are favored in the L38 games! They are just 2-2 SU/1-3 ATS the previous four occasions w/ both SU wins coming over the Jaguars by a combined five points! This will be just the second time since 2011 that they are being asked to lay seven points to an opponent! It's rare to find a team playing w/ revenge against the Browns, but the Titans have a double dose of it here, believe it or not. Because of the respective "last place schedules," these teams have met each of the past two seasons. Cleveland has won both games w/ the line as pick 'em each time. So, that actually makes Tennessee 1-5 ATS as a dog or pick the L3 seasons. Now do I expect the Titans to win this game? Yes. But Cleveland has generally been competitive thus far and this is their weakest opponent to date. A total overlay here w/ a bad team being favored by too many points. 8* Cleveland |
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10-16-16 | Steelers v. Dolphins +7.5 | Top | 15-30 | Win | 100 | 98 h 32 m | Show |
10* Miami (1:00 ET): Things are going South rather quickly for Miami in year one under Adam Gase. The team's lone win came against Cleveland and required overtime. They did not cover that game (were 10-pt favorites and I went against them), nor did they in bad losses to Cincinnati (22-7) and Tennessee (30-17) the L2 weeks. Particularly embarrassing is how they were pretty much dominated here at home vs. the Titans last Sunday. They were outgained basically 2:1 by a fellow one-win team. Really, one would have to go all the way back to Week 1 to find Miami's "best" performance, that being a 12-10 loss at Seattle, a game they probably should have won SU as 10.5 pt dogs. Remember, they were down big at the half against New England. This all being said, I'm going to advocate taking the points here, as it's a lot of them w/ a desperate side. While Miami is 1-4 SU/ATS, Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU/ATS. Their lone loss was that headscratcher, on the road, to Philadelphia 34-3. Three of the four wins have come by double digits, including last week's over the Jets, 31-13. But note that they actually trailed in the 1H of that game (13-7) before scoring a TD in the final minute before halftime. (The second half was "all them.") I think most people will view this as an "easy win" for Pittsburgh, but a few things are working against them. One is WR Sammie Coates has a fractured finger. Two, they are officially the most public side of the week (as of Saturday). Under Mike Tomlin, the Black and Gold are just 3-10 ATS as road faves of 7 pts or more. In the final week of last season, they snapped a nine-game ATS skid (four outright losses!) in the role w/ a win over the hapless Browns. This is also a lookahead for Pittsburgh as they host New England next week. Meanwhile, there's no such thing as a lookahead for a 1-4 SU team. This is the second of what will be four consecutive home games for Miami. Typically, they haven't been very strong at home off a home loss, but this is a new regime. The offense has been quite disappointing, QB Ryan Tannehill in particular, but note this will be the first time all season that the team's top two offensive lineman (Branden Albert & Mike Pouncey) will play together. Pittsburgh's defense is only 25th in yards per game allowed and was bailed out somewhat LW by the Jets going 2 for 12 on third and fourth down. That unit will be w/o Cam Heyward here as the DE is missing a game for the 1st time in his career. 10* Miami |
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10-13-16 | Broncos v. Chargers +3.5 | Top | 13-21 | Win | 100 | 33 h 58 m | Show |
10* San Diego (8:25 ET): In the interest of full disclosure, I had strong opinions on both of these teams season win totals. As of right now, my respective opinions aren't looking so good. I was very high on San Diego finishing Over 7.0 wins as I deemed it reasonable to assume the team's fortune in terms of injuries and luck in close games would take a turn for the better. Sadly, they've managed to somehow get even worse in both departments. Denver, meanwhile, is a team I bet to finish Under 9.5 wins. They jumped out to a 4-0 SU start on the back of a defense that remains very strong. However, last week we saw the Broncos lose for the 1st time as Atlanta came to their house and pulled off a 23-16 upset as 3.5-pt underdogs. Now, the defending Super Bowl champs have to hit the road, on a short week, w/o their head coach and possibly w/o their starting QB. I'm not ready to rip up that Chargers bet quite yet. They have lost six in a row to the Broncos and 10 straight AFC West games overall. But I see both streaks likely coming to an end here. Take the points. While they've lost 10 straight division games straight up, the Lightning Bolts have actually covered the number in each of the last five. That reflects the kind of fortune they've experienced in close games the L2 seasons. In Week 1, they led the Chiefs (on the road) 27-10 entering the fourth quarter. They ended up losing 33-27 in overtime, still covering the 6.5-point spot. Last week in Oakland was almost comical as they blew another lead and then missed what would have been a game-tying field goal at the end of regulation. But they covered (+3.5) in the 34-31 loss. In between, they have given games away late to both Indianapolis and New Orleans in the final minute. Yet, the team still has a positive point differential due to a 38-14 blowout of Jacksonville here at home in Week 2! Their four losses have come by a total of 14 points w/ one of them a coming by six in overtime. This team's fortune HAS to change! It is safe to say that there isn't a team in this league "better" than its actual record than San Diego. This is the first time this year they'll be a home dog. We already know that Denver will travel w/o HC Gary Kubiak for this game. That's a tough situation for interim HC Joe DeCamillis on a short week, especially if he will be starting rookie Paxton Lynch at QB again. Quite frankly, Lynch did not look very good vs. the Falcons w/ only 183 yds passing on 35 attempts. This would obviously be his first road start. Even if Trevor Siemian is able to go here, this play stands. A real key is that the Broncos' offensive line was terrible against Atlanta (allowed six sacks) and that's a team not known for a pass rush. One bright spot in San Diego's loss LW was the debut of 1st round pick Joey Bosa, who had two sacks. Also, the Chargers' own offensive line has actually been much improved. Turnovers, particularly fumbles, have killed the SD offense. If they can take better care of the football, then I see no reason why the home dog doesn't take this game outright. 10* San Diego |
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10-09-16 | Bills +2.5 v. Rams | Top | 30-19 | Win | 102 | 98 h 16 m | Show |
10* Buffalo (4:25 ET): The wrong team is favored here in my estimation. Despite a 3-1 record, the Rams still have been outscored this year - by 13 points - as they were shutout in the opener (28-0) by San Francisco of all opponents. Since then, they've somehow managed to beat both the Seahawks and Cardinals despite scoring all of TWO offensive touchdown in those two victories. The 9-3 win, here at home, over Seattle was obviously all field goals and probably would have been a loss if not for a late Seahawks' fumble in LA territory. Last week, a big special teams play (47-yd punt return) was the difference in a 17-13 road win over Arizona. It also helped that Carson Palmer was knocked out of that game w/ a concussion because on the Cardinals' final two drives, backup Drew Stanton threw INTs in Rams territory. It should be noted that LA was actually outgained, 420-288, an Arizona had more than double the number of first downs (26-12). Buffalo was seemingly left for dead at 0-2, but things have taken a real turn here the L2 weeks. The big focus was on Rex Ryan firing OC Greg Roman after the Jets loss, but it has been Ryan's defense that has keyed the turnaround. I had the Bills when they beat Arizona two weeks ago, 33-18, thanks to creating five turnovers. Last week may have been the "high water" mark of the Ryan era here in upstate NY as the team shut out New England, on the road, 16-0. Granted, they were facing an injured, third-string rookie QB in Jacoby Brissett, but is the Rams' Case Keenum really someone they should be fearing? I think not. The Rams' offense has failed to gain even 300 total yards in three of their games this season and w/ RB Todd Gurley struggling to get going (2.6 YPC), I see another strong effort from Ryan's defense. Los Angeles actually ranks dead last in the league in total offense right now at 269 YPG. Earlier I mentioned that the Rams actually have a negative point differential (-13) despite their 3-1 SU record. That point differential actually ranks 21st in the league right now. Buffalo is in the top 9 at +19. So again, I believe the wrong team is favored here. Furthermore, it's expected to be a low-scoring affair, so taking the points is always a prudent move in that situation. The Rams are a bad offensive team that's not favored often. Thus, they are excellent fade material. Buffalo is 13-6-1 ATS the L20 times it has been an underdog, winning 12 of those games straight up. 10* Buffalo |
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10-09-16 | Chargers +3.5 v. Raiders | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 98 h 7 m | Show |
10* San Diego (4:25 ET): In the interest of full disclosure, when it comes to season win totals, the Chargers (7.0) were my top Over bet. Needless to say, it has been an infuriating start to the year w/ the team now 1-3 SU and having blown three fourth quarter leads. Last week, though I was not on them, was the most painful of the lot as they went from being ahead 34-21 w/ just under three minutes to go, to a 35-34 loss due to two ill-time fumbles. This against the previously winless Saints, at home. Don't even get me started on the Week 1 disaster at Kansas City that saw San Diego blow a 17-pt 4Q lead and lose in OT (thankfully, they still covered). There was also a four-point loss at Indy (allowed long TD pass late). Though they've now lost FOUR starters to season-ending injuries, I'm calling for an end to this madness. Take the points and the Chargers. Oakland is 3-1, but overrated. Note they have a point differential of just +2. San Diego, meanwhile, is 1-3 SU but has a +13 point differential. The Raiders have a pair of one-point wins, one over New Orleans and then last week at Baltimore, to their credit. Their other win came by a touchdown over Tennessee. Give this team credit for three road wins (all out East!), but every game could have gone "either way." The one time they were at home, they were favored and lost outright to Atlanta, 35-28. The problem w/ the Silver and Black is a defense giving up an average of 460 YPG. Last week, they were outgained by Baltimore 412-261 and had 12 fewer first downs (25-13!). Talk about a phony win! The Raiders are now being outgained, on average, by 68 yards per game. They allowed 500+ yards to both the Saints & Falcons. Oakland actually swept the season series from San Diego LY, doing so for the first time since 2010. From 2011 through 2014, the Chargers won seven of eight overall matchups. This is just the third time since '03 that the Raiders have been favored over the Lightning Bolts. All three games were at home and the Silver and Black are 0-3 ATS. That includes last year, when they won 23-20 laying four points. True to form, San Diego led that game going into the 4Q. Regardless of what the records say, the better team is getting points here. 10* San Diego |
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10-09-16 | Patriots v. Browns +10.5 | Top | 33-13 | Loss | -108 | 95 h 54 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (1:00 ET): The Browns, I assure you, promise to be the least "popular" side among the public here in Week 5. They draw the Patriots, who get Tom Brady back following a four-game suspension and coming off a shutout loss at the hands of the Bills, the expectation will be a New England blowout. But even though Cleveland is 0-4 SU (1-3 ATS), as expected, that doesn't necessarily reflect how competitive they've been. Last week, on the road, they led Washington in the fourth quarter. All of a sudden, they were then unable to hang onto the football w/ THREE fourth quarter turnovers (one ruled fumble was a VERY questionable call by the officials) and also a turnover on downs. They actually outgained the Redskins, 380-301. Two weeks ago, they took Miami into overtime, also the road. They had the edge in total yards there as well in what was an automatic cover for me once the game went into OT. Then, three weeks ago, the Browns were up 20-0 on Baltimore, yet those stuck w/ the closing line of 4.5 did not cover as the Ravens rallied for a 25-20 victory, stopping Cleveland w/ a goal line INT. Again, the Browns had the edge in total yards there. Take the points. New England was shutout last week, at home no less, 16-0 by Buffalo. I realize the Pats were starting an injured, rookie third string QB (Jacoby Brissett). But Cleveland is also down to a rookie third-stringer (Cody Kessler) and he fared much better. The week prior, the Pats offense gained only 282 yds in a shutout that happened to go their way, 27-0 over Houston (Thurs night game). Miami, they had to hold on to beat 31-24. Week 1 was a bit of a stunning upset, as nine-point dogs, but that no longer looks as impressive given the Cardinals' 1-3 start. It is very rare to find a road team favored by double digits in this league. It happened just four times all of last season and twice was in the meaningless final week. Since 2011, DD road chalk is just 8-13 ATS (w/ four outright losses). Even the Patriots have only been in this role four times throughout Bill Belichick's tenure. In fact, as a road favorite of a TD or more, NE is just 1-7 ATS dating back to Week 16 of the 2012 season! This line, which should be only about a touchdown in my estimation, is all about the expectation of Tom Brady coming in and being in "mid-season" form. There is no guarantee that he will play that well. 8* Cleveland |
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10-09-16 | Eagles v. Lions +3 | Top | 23-24 | Win | 100 | 95 h 53 m | Show |
8* Detroit (1:00 ET): 3-0 and off a bye, Carson Wentz & the Eagles are the "toast of the town" right now in Philly (Phillies & Sixers both stink anyway). Shame on me, I projected this team to win only three games all season! Obviously, that was a bad call, but what I never could have anticipated was the Eagles actually being asked to lay points in a road game this year. Yet, that's the situation this week in Detroit and the public seems willing to throw their support behind the unbeaten team. The Lions were a team that I played AGAINST LW and that proved to be a prudent maneuver as they (as road favorites!) lost outright to the previously winless Bears! I'll call for "the script to be flipped" Sunday afternoon and I would not be at all surprised to see Detroit take this one outright. But take the points. Wentz has received the "lions-share" of the attention (pun intended!) for his team's 3-0 start, but really it's been more about the defense. Wins over Cleveland and Chicago really aren't that impressive when you think about it (notwithstanding this week's play on the Browns or last week's on the Bears!). Now the shocking Week 3 dismantling of the Steelers obviously was quite impressive, but I'm going to simply write that one off as an outlier. On the road, Philly was actually outgained by Chicago, but aided greatly by Jay Cutler turnovers. Provided Detroit can take care of the football here, things can go their way. The Eagles are +6 in the turnover department so far, but have actually fumbled three times themselves, only to come up w/ the ball every time. Lucky! I was pretty shocked to find that the Eagles are 24-5 SU coming off a bye since 1993. But that's pretty meaningless given it's a whole new reigme here. If anything, that record is due to regress. Then again, might the fact that the team is 1-7 ATS laying a FG or more on the road (since 2012) mean a little bit more? Detroit opened this season by going to Indianapolis and beating the Colts outright, 39-35, as three-point dogs. I've since bet against them both times that they were favored, at home vs. Tennessee and LW at Chicago, getting a perfect result. In between those two outright losses was a rally that fell short at Green Bay. As bad as things look right now in the Motor City, this team finds itself playing for its season and I expect an inspired effort Sunday. I wouldn't trust the Eagles CB's against these Lions' WR's plus LB Nigel Bradham was arrested last weekend. There is a chance that OL Lane Johnson could be out (suspension) as well for the road team. 8* Detroit |
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10-09-16 | Jets +7 v. Steelers | Top | 13-31 | Loss | -102 | 95 h 53 m | Show |
8* NY Jets (1:00 ET): I'll complete these trio of what are sure to be "unpopular" sides this week w/ the Jets, who are coming off a 27-17 humbling at the hands of the Seahawks. Going from facing Seattle to Pittsburgh may seem like a brutal spot for this fledgling team, but this is a classic instance of fading a team coming off an impressive win in a nationally televised game. The Steelers looked like "the Steelers" again in a 43-14 beatdown of the Chiefs last Sunday night, so everyone is likely to be back on their bandwagon. Especially since that's the same Chiefs team that beat the Jets 24-3 the week prior, forcing EIGHT turnovers in the process. But just because A > B and B > C, does not make A > C in this league. I'm going to take the points and rely on the Jets' defense keeping them in this one. So far, the line for every Jets game has been a field goal or less. Three games were basically pick 'ems. Three more turnovers (forced none) were killers LW vs. Seattle, a game they were in until the fourth quarter. Remember that the team's first loss, at home to Cincinnati, came by one point and was decided on a last second FG. Even the 8 TO disaster at Kansas City was not out of reach when the 4Q began. The key is the defense, which would have a lot better numbers if not for the offense turning the ball over so much. I realize the offense is down a couple of receivers, one of them Eric Decker, but if Ryan Fitzpatrick can just complete the ball to a player wearing green, they'll be okay. Remember that the Steelers are just two weeks removed from a 34-3 blowout at the hands of the Eagles. The biggest key here will be the Jets' defensive line going against a suspect Steelers' offensive line. Pittsburgh could again be w/o starting LG Ramon Foster this week. On the other side, RT Marcus Gilbert is questionable at best and his backup Ryan Harris also got hurt last week. That means Mike Tomlin may be forced to start a practice squad member along the offensive front. The Jets' defense is allowing just 70 yards rushing per game so far and no opponent has gained more than 86 yards over land against them. That's #3 in the league right now. The pass rush, a bit of a disappointment LW (only 2 sacks) should do a better job at getting home here. 8* NY Jets |
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10-09-16 | Texans +7 v. Vikings | Top | 13-31 | Loss | -115 | 48 h 40 m | Show |
8* Houston (1:00 ET): Admittedly, I don't have much of an affinity for the Texans. Their offense is fairly dreadful and they were lucky to escape w/ a win LW at home vs. Tennessee (won 27-20 w/ the difference being a punt return for a TD). But the defense, even sans JJ Watt, must be still be respected. This Week 5 battle w/ Minnesota promises to be low-scoring (one of the lowest totals on the board) and thus taking the points seems like a wise decision here. What's interesting here is that the Vikings are in the unusual spot of actually receiving the public's support in this one. Typically, the public fades them (and I made the mistake of doing so Monday as well), which is why they've been able to amass a remarkable 18-3 ATS record (4-0 ATS in 2016) since the start of last year. But this is a bit of a bad spot considering it's a short week and they have to play a 1 PM ET game. Take the points. The Vikings actually rank 31st in the league in total offense (290 YPG) coming into this game. In the first three weeks of the season, they scored all of three offensive touchdowns. So let's "pump the brakes" a bit on all this Sam Bradford talk, shall we? Week 1 was a fortunate win over a bad Tennessee team as the defense scored twice in the second half. It was an upset of Green Bay (were +1.5), at home, in Week 2 as they prevailed by just a field goal. Week 3 saw them go to Carolina and win 22-10, but again it was the defense supplying both a touchdown and a safety. That's a somewhat unsustainable way to win games. Monday night against the Giants, two of their scoring drives (resulting in 10 pts, the difference in the game) started in opposing territory. Without Adrian Peterson, the Vikings just can't run the ball as they are averaging only 64 YPG for the year, which is dead last. It looks as if there is a good chance that this will be the first time in the Zimmer era that the Vikes will be asked to lay more than seven points. Conversely, the Texans rarely find themselves catching this many points. There was only one game all of last season where they got more than a touchdown from the oddsmakers (were +10 at Cincinnati on MNF) and they wound up winning that game outright. Note that the advanced line for this game was only Minnesota -4, so there's now some real solid value on the other side. Remember, the Vikings have not scored more than 25 pts in any game this season and that high-water mark only came as a result of two defensive scores. 8* Houston |
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10-03-16 | Giants +4 v. Vikings | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -105 | 34 h 45 m | Show |
10* NY Giants (8:30 ET): After Sunday, there are just three undefeated teams left: Denver, Philadelphia ... and Minnesota. Those three teams are also a combined 10-0 ATS. The Vikings are in action Monday, hosting a Giants team that has sought to "reverse the math" from the previous campaign. Whereas last season saw the team go just 3-8 SU in one-score games, they opened 2016 w/ a pair of narrow wins over the Cowboys and Saints. But then last week, the G-Men lost at home, 29-27 to the Redskins. With the NFC East better than advertised so far, they cannot afford to drop another game. Believe it or not, but Minnesota is an insane 17-3 ATS since the start of last season. I have to believe that record will begin to regress. Take the points. Remember that Minnesota is w/o both QB Teddy Bridgewater and RB Adrian Peterson. Sam Bradford has done noble work as the starter the L2 weeks (helped immensely by emerging WR Stefon Diggs), but I have no reason to believe that will continue. Bradford's entire career has been plagued by inconsistencies. These L2 weeks have seen the Vikings win outright as underdogs. First, it was over Green Bay (+1.5) here at home, 17-14. Then, last week they went to Carolina and prevailed 22-10 despite being outgained 306-211. That's hardly impressive offensive production. In three games, the Vikings offense has scored a grand total of three touchdowns. The defense/special teams has just as many, plus a safety last week for "good measure." This is simply an unsustainable model for success. Through three games, they have the fewest rushing yards (153) EVER for a 3-0 team! The Giants' offense has started surprisingly slow (21.0 PPG). But I do not anticipate that lasting. QB Eli Manning has a receiving corps as talented as any in the league: Odell Beckham, Jr, Victor Cruz and Sterling Shepard. The defense has been a major surprise though, in a positive manner. While not as good as the Vikings, they're still allowing only 20.3 PPG. Note that this is the first time the G-Men are getting more than a point from the oddsmakers this season, so there's value there. I also believe playing indoors won't affect them as much as the road team. Studies have shown that NFL teams typically see a minor loss in homefield advantage the first two years of a new stadium. 10* NY Giants |
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10-02-16 | Broncos v. Bucs +3 | Top | 27-7 | Loss | -109 | 46 h 45 m | Show |
10* Tampa Bay (4:05 ET): I look at this line and here's what I think. The books are essentially "inviting" a slew of public money. I will not take the bait. It sure makes sense as to why the Broncos shape up as the most public side of Week 4. The defending Super Bowl Champs come in at 3-0 SU and off an outright win, on the road, over a good Cincinnati team. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay is off B2B bad losses, the last one coming here at home, to the LA Rams. But winning B2B road games in this league is hard to do as is failing to cover two straight at home. Tampa Bay was a much better team last year than it's 6-10 SU record. They actually finished third offensively in yards per play (5.9) and eighth defensively (5.2). It's more of the same in 2016 as they're outgaining opponents despite a 1-2 SU record. Home dogs are 7-4-3 ATS so far. Take the points. Last week saw the Bucs outgain the Rams 472-320 w/ a 30-18 first down edge! Yet, they still lost straight up as 3.5-pt favorites. Needless to say, you won't find a SU loser from the Week 3 slate that had a bigger advantage in total yardage. It was a game the Bucs led 20-10 in the second quarter. There was a long lightning delay that interrupted the game. Week 2, while a blowout loss, did see them lose the turnover battle by five, essentially guaranteeing defeat. They have not been a home dog since Week 9 of last season. Too many times in the last few years this team has lost a close game. Meanwhile, Denver has enjoyed incredible success in such affairs, going 12-3 SU in games decided by seven points or less since the start of last season. It's "high time" that TB won one of these games. Broncos QB Trevor Siemian had a breakout game LW in Cincinnati, throwing for 300+ yards and four touchdowns. I just can't see him duplicating those numbers here. It should be pointed out that Denver has trailed in the fourth quarter in two of its games. The other, a 34-20 win over Indianapolis, saw them score two defensive touchdowns. So, they're pretty fortunate to be 3-0. A 5-0 ATS win streak that dates back to LY's Super Bowl run is tied for the longest active in NFL. It's due to end. This line reminds me of the Arizona-Buffalo matchup last week where I cashed the home dog. 10* Tampa Bay. |
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10-02-16 | Lions v. Bears +3 | Top | 14-17 | Win | 100 | 73 h 34 m | Show |
10* Chicago (1:00 ET): Following B2B "duds" in primetime (lost to Eagles on MNF & Cowboys on SNF), the Bears have clearly fallen out of favor w/ the public. But I think this is a good opportunity to buy low on a desperate 0-3 SU team. Yes, the Monsters of the Midway have the worst point differential in the league through three weeks. But I don't think they should be a home dog to the division rival Lions. Granted, the team is just 1-8 SU, 1-7-1 ATS at Soldier Field since the start of last season, which is borderline unacceptable. They've also covered only one of their last eight games overall, going back to last season. Detroit is 6-0 SU the L3 years in this NFC North rivalry, but they are also a terrible 5-16 ATS as a road favorite since the start of the 2000 season. Take the points here. This is more of a play against the Lions, than a play on the Bears. I had a similar mentality in Week 2 when I took the points w/ Tennessee and they went into the Motor City and took the game outright, 16-15. Last week was a "back door cover" (for some) against Green Bay after trailing 31-3 in the first half. It's looking pretty clear at this point that the team's only win so far, 39-35 at Indianapolis in Wk 1, was a byproduct of facing a bad & banged up defense. Again, I personally just wouldn't want to be laying points w/ this group, especially on the road. We know that their defense is going to be w/o two key contributors, again, here. Those would be DE Ezekial Ansah and LB DeAndre Levy. Chicago is w/o QB Jay Cutler and RB Jeremy Langford. But, so what? It's not as if they had proven to be difference makers to this point. Brian Hoyer is far from ideal as a starting QB in this league, but at least he has experience. Don't be surprised if we see a big game here from rookie RB Jordan Howard in this spot. I say that because the L2 weeks have seen the Lions defense surrender 262 yds rushing at a ghastly 5.46 yards per pop. But, let's go back to the home futility the Bears are facing here. Six straight home losses in this league is hard to do. In franchise history, they have never lost seven straight home games. Both games vs. Detroit LY were decided by four points or less. Even if the Bears only win a few games in 2016, this figures to be one of them. 10* Chicago |
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10-02-16 | Titans +5 v. Texans | Top | 20-27 | Loss | -115 | 73 h 33 m | Show |
8* Tennessee (1:00 ET): This is another of those division rivalries that has been totally one-sided in recent years. Houston has swept Tennessee each of the L2 years, both straight up and against the spread. All four games were decided by double digits. But, these young Titans are a bit improved so far in 2016 despite being 1-2 SU. On the defensive side of the ball is where the real improvement has come. Through three games, they're allowing an average of just 19 PPG. One of their losses (Minnesota in Wk 1) saw them not allow a single offensive touchdown. Since then, they've allowed just 16 and 17 points. Houston's defense, of course, has been severely weakened by the loss of JJ Watt (on IR) and their offense has simply not been very good so far. Take the points. Very few defensive players have an effect on the pointspread. Watt is certainly one of them and I don't think there's been a big enough adjustment here. The Texans defense is the reason the team is 2-1 SU, but the loss of Watt looms large. Keep in mind they have NEVER been w/o Watt since he came into the league. Linebacker Brian Cushing hasn't played since the first series of the opener. He could be back here, but won't be 100% if he is. Meanwhile, as alluded to above, this Texans offense stinks. They were shut out LW in New England, gaining less than 300 total yards. Their season high in yardage gained thus far is only 351. Questions remain w/ Brock Osweiler. Averaging only 14 PPG is not something you want to see out of a favorite, particularly when facing a much improved defense. In games that project to be low-scoring (like this one!), it's often a good idea to take the points. I realize Tennessee has not been one of the league's better bets the L2 years (5-13-1 ATS overall), but I look for that record to improve. The return of wide receiver Kendall Wright should help the offense. Turnovers (-5 margin through three weeks) are what has hurt this team more than anything else. The defense, facing what has been one of the worst offenses in the league, will keep them in the game throughout. For whatever reason, the Titans tend to play better on the road as was evident by when they went to Detroit in Week 2 and won outright (had 'em). 8* Tennessee |
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09-29-16 | Dolphins v. Bengals -7.5 | Top | 7-22 | Win | 100 | 21 h 6 m | Show |
8* Cincinnati (8:25 ET): In handicapping this game, I was shocked to find that it has been Miami that's both won and covered each of the L3 meetings. The last took place Halloween night (a Thursday) in 2013 and had the unusual finish of the Dolphins winning on a "walkoff" safety in overtime, 22-20. Like their previous two victories over Cincy, it was decided by one score. Miami is actually 8-2 SU/ATS the L10 head to head meetings. But many of those took place during a time when the Bengals were not competitive. Now, they are the perennial playoff contender while Miami is one of the worst run franchises in the sport. It's been a bit of a disappointing 1-2 start for Cincinnati so far, but I can't see them losing at home in B2B weeks considering an outstanding 20-5-1 SU mark at Paul Brown Stadium (reg season only) since 2013. Lay the points. The Bengals were a dominant team against the spread LY, going 12-3-2. But they are 0-3 at the betting window so far in 2016 and off B2B losses for just the third time in the L3 seasons. It should be noted that they are 2-0 SU/ATS in this situation. Last year, they destroyed St. Louis in this spot, 31-7. In 2013, they crushed Cleveland 41-20. Both of those games were at home and saw them laying more than a touchdown. It should also be noted that the two teams they've lost to are Pittsburgh and Denver, two of the AFC's best. Miami will easily be their weakest opponent so far this season. I think that many of the "issues" that have plagued the Bengals to this point can be alleviated by facing the Dolphins. Miami had a tough start to the season, drawing Seattle and New England right out of the gate. They covered, and probably should have won, against the Seahawks. But they fell behind big at New England and only made a game out of it once Jimmy Garoppolo exited. I faded them LW as they were laying a big number and barely survived in overtime. This defense is bad as is evident by them giving up 430 total yards to a Browns team that was starting a rookie, third-string QB. Bengals QB Andy Dalton comes in leading the league in passing. I expect Cincy's run game to have a big day as well. They gained 143 yds LW against one of the top defenses in the league. Miami has allowed 160+ rush yards in B2B games. As for the Miami offense, they have clear issues running the ball and there are multiple injuries along the offensive line. They could be starting a third string center. I expect QB Tannehill to be under duress throughout this game as the Bengals' D gets Vontaze Burfict back from suspension. The Dolphins' offense is 25th in rushing and 26th on third down. 8* Cincinnati |
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09-26-16 | Falcons v. Saints -2.5 | Top | 45-32 | Loss | -114 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
8* 1st Half New Orleans (8:30 ET): Atlanta was a nice winner for me LW as they went to Oakland and prevailed, outright, 35-28 as a four-point dog. I think that's the reason that some of the sharper money has come in on them for Monday night. But, let us not forget that this is the same team that lost outright, at home, to Tampa Bay in Week 1. For all the valid criticisms that exist regarding the Saints' defense, much of the same applies to Dan Quinn's group, which has surrendered 59 points in two games. Back to back road wins seem unlikely for this team, especially considering they were swept by New Orleans last year. Early on, the Superdome should be rocking as this is the 10-year anniversary of the building reopening after Hurricane Katrina. It will be difficult for the Falcons to match the home team's intensity. While it may seem a little "unscientific" to cite emotional reasons for taking the Saints in the 1H, note that I made the mistake of fading this team 10 years ago in the famous game vs. Atlanta where the Superdome reopened. Looking at present times, New Orleans certainly needs no extra motivation as they return home at 0-2 SU and know another loss puts them in a severe hole. Last week saw them lose 16-13 to the Giants despite a +3 turnover margin. But we all know this is a much better team at home. Even though they lost here in Week 1, 35-34 to the Raiders, the offense rolled up over 500 yds total offense in that game and only lost when Oakland converted a two-point conversion in the final minute. So, that's two losses by a total of four points thus far. The much maligned defense actually didn't give up a TD last week! As I already mentioned, the Saints swept the Falcons last year, including a 31-21 win here at home in primetime (Thursday night game). This is a team that's gone 6-2 ATS the previous two seasons off B2B losses. Remember when the Saints never lost a home, primetime game? HC Sean Payton has owned Atlanta during his tenure here, going 15-5 SU against them. Furthermore, that includes an 8-2 mark at home with him covering four of the last five times. A second straight strong performance from Atlanta on the road just seems unlikely, especially in this environment. This is a good value only needing a halftime lead. 8* 1st Half New Orleans |
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09-25-16 | Bears +7.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 17-31 | Loss | -127 | 50 h 0 m | Show |
8* Chicago (8:25 ET): Certainly I can't see the public showing "much love" to an 0-2 Bears team that was just embarrassed LW at home on MNF. Not to mention, they lost starting QB Jay Cutler in that 29-14 loss to the Eagles and thus are forced to turn to Brian Hoyer here. Despite that, I feel the linesmakers have made a classic overadjustment with the spread, which was set to be -4.5 prior to the MNF debacle. Dallas is fortunate not to be 0-2 themselves as they took advantage a Kirk Cousins INT in the end zone LW and went down to score the GW TD in a 27-23 win over the Redskins. Remember they are starting a rookie QB (Dak Prescott) themselves. I anticipate a close game here. Take the points. The Cowboys were outgained last week, 432-380. Week 1 saw the offense put only 19 points on the board. This is the first time that this team will have been substantially favored (were -1 vs. NYG). We all know how poorly HC Jason Garrett has been in the chalk role throughout his career. They are just 7-11 ATS laying points the L3 seasons, including 1-3 at home if laying more than a field goal, but less than a touchdown. and let's not forget about a terrible 4-13 ATS home record either that includes an outright loss to the Giants. They are 8-24 ATS as a home favorite under Garrett and have actually now lost EIGHT straight home games dating back to last year and their last home win w/o Tony Romo as the QB was all the way back in 2010! There are injuries along the offensive line, which is the strength of this team. The running game has yet to really get going. The good news for Chicago is that Alshon Jeffrey will play. That makes life easier on Hoyer. Note that the Bears defense only allowed 280 total yards last week. What killed them was a -3 turnover margin. Clean that up and things can be just fine. Hoyer, while not ideal, has won games in this league before, certainly more than Prescott. I just don't think Dallas should be laying this many points - to any opponent right now. 8* Chicago |
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09-25-16 | Browns +10 v. Dolphins | Top | 24-30 | Win | 100 | 70 h 6 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (1:00 ET): Things are quickly going from "bad to worse" in Cleveland w/ the Browns turning to their third starting QB in as many games. It will be Cody Kessler (USC) going here in Week 3 and making his job more difficult is the fact fellow rookie Corey Coleman, the receiver out of Baylor, is out w/ a broken hand. Little to nothing was expected from the Browns, but their 0-2 start is making you wonder where & when the wins will come this season. They clearly grade out as the worst team in the league right now. That all being said, I don't believe that their opponents, the Miami Dolphins, deserve to be in this price range against anybody right now. They too are 0-2 and coming off tough road games vs. Seattle and New England, I don't think a simple return home equals a blowout. Take the points here. Miami was in position to upset Seattle in Week 1, but allowed a late TD to lose that one, 12-10. Things did not get off to a good start LW in New England as they fell behind 31-3 and only rallied to make a game out of it once Pats QB Jimmy Garoppolo left w/ an injury. QB Ryan Tannehill was able to pile up some meaningless passing stats facing a vanilla New England defense that was basically playing a prevent for much of the 2H. Of greater concern w/ the Dolphins offense is that Tannehill leads the team in rushing through two games w/ 52 yards! The team's running backs are averaging just 3.3 YPC and Arian Foster has been ruled out for this week. Up front, center Mike Pouncey seems doubtful as he hasn't practiced all week. Yes, it's a real "motley crew" for the Browns on offense here. But I think they'll still be able to move the ball here on a Miami defense that is not good. Consider that the Dolphns are allowing 136.5 rush YPG so far and gave up 465 total to a Patriots team that was playing w/ a second and then third string QB. Cleveland did show some life LW at home vs. Baltimore, jumping out to a 20-0 lead before blowing it and losing 25-20. They did outgain the Ravens, 387-382. Again though, this one boils down to a bad team laying a lot of points. Consider that this is the FIRST time since the final week of the 2013 season where they have been asked to lay a TD or more. The last time they closed as a DD favorite was 2009! The oddsmakers have adjusted far too much for a QB change (McCown to Kessler) that is largely irrelevant. Take the points. 8* Cleveland |
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09-25-16 | Ravens v. Jaguars +1.5 | Top | 19-17 | Loss | -102 | 70 h 5 m | Show |
8* Jacksonville (1:00 ET): Is 0-2 Jacksonville this bad and 2-0 Baltimore this good? I'm banking on the answer to both questions being "no." The winless Jaguars had a relatively strong Week 1 showing as they took favored Green Bay to the limit, losing 27-23. At the time, holding Aaron Rodgers and the Packers under 300 total yds seemed really impressive. But then Gus Bradley's defense was torched by San Diego last week in a 38-14 loss that was never close. I laid the points w/ the Chargers in that game, mind you. Baltimore's 2-0 SU/ATS start has come at the expense of a pair of bad teams - Buffalo and Cleveland - and the games were decided by a total of 11 pts. The Ravens lost their fair share of close games last year, so it's nice to see fortune going their way in 2016. However, I see this being their first loss of 2016. In Week 1 against Buffalo, the Ravens scored only 13 points. Last week, on the road, they had to squeak by a Cleveland team that happens to be the worst in the league. They trailed early, 20-0 in fact, before rallying to win by five. They were slightly outgained by the Browns. Even after that win, the Ravens are still just 9-16 SU on the road the L4 seasons. Therefore, I don't like the idea of them winning B2B weeks away from home. As a matter of fact, they haven't pulled off B2B road wins since 2012! Were it not for three long Justin Tucker FG's last week and a blocked PAT return for safety, Baltimore would have lost to the Browns. I think it's fair to say Jacksonville is their toughest opponent to date. The Jags should be motivated here after the dismal showing last week against a good San Diego team. While Jacksonville is the toughest opponent Baltimore will have faced to this point, a case could be made that the Ravens are the Jaguars' weakest opponent so far. I realize that Blake Bortles and the offense have disappointed so far, but w/ RB Chris Ivory set to play for the first time, the run game should be better here. I think that the maligned defense will step up against a Baltimore offense that has scored all of three touchdowns this year. Again, two weeks ago, the Jags held the Packers under 300 total yds here at home. Over the past two years, the Ravens are 1-6 SU off B2B SU wins. 8* Jacksonville |
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09-25-16 | Cardinals v. Bills +4 | Top | 18-33 | Win | 100 | 70 h 2 m | Show |
8* Buffalo (1:00 ET): This certainly shapes up as a classic "pros vs. joes" spot as on paper, there's no real reason to believe in the 0-2 Bills here against a Cardinals team that just won its last game, 40-7. But it is an early start time for Arizona and the line has done some "curious" things over the course of the week. The Cards opened as roughly 5.5-pt favorites and have received the bulk of the tickets (over 80%) for this Week 3 matchup. Yet, the number has come DOWN. This is a real "must-win" spot for Buffalo HC Rex Ryan, who just fired his OFFENSIVE coordinator after losing a game 37-31 (to the Jets). That loss did occur on a Thursday night, so there's been added time to prepare here. Remember that the Cardinals did lose at home in Week 1 to the Jimmy Garoppolo-led Patriots. To quote Chris Berman (ugh!), I'll call for Buffalo to "circle the wagons." Take the points. Arizona really benefited from a +5 turnover margin LW against Tampa Bay. Granted, there's no point in picking apart a 40-7 win, but any team will win in this league if they're +5 in TO's. A key thing to watch with this Cardinals defense is that Tyronn Mathieu is still attempting to get over LY's ACL injury and is not ready to assume his normal role. Instead, he's been relegated to the simple role of free safety. Also, there are injuries along the offensive line. LT Jared Veldheer was added to the injury list during the week and RG Evan Mathis had a foot that looked "purple" according to QB Carson Palmer. I'll reiterate that we've seen "West Coast" teams struggle when coming out East for these early start times. Incredibly, this is only the second time Arizona has played at Buffalo since 1990! Injuries and disarray have led to the Bills falling out of favor with the public. But I find it hard to believe that the defense is as bad as it looked LW vs. the Jets. This is, after all, still a Rex Ryan defense. They held Baltimore to only 13 pts here at home in Week 1. Last week, the offense woke up. Although Sammy Watkins may not play here, they should be used to playing w/o him at this point. Again, Ryan's back is against the wall here. He needs this game badly. I expect an "all-out effort" here from the Bills, who are 5-2 ATS getting a FG or more at home since the start of the 2013 season. Arizona won too many close games LY - they are due to drop one. 8* Buffalo |
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09-25-16 | Redskins +3.5 v. Giants | Top | 29-27 | Win | 100 | 43 h 31 m | Show |
10* Washington (1:00 ET): The Redskins are off to an 0-2 start, both losses coming at home. In Week 1, on Monday Night Football, they were embarrassed by Pittsburgh (lost 38-16). But they probably should have won LW vs. Dallas. They outgained the Cowboys 432-380, but a terrible Kirk Cousins INT (in the end zone) really swung that game. Now, last year's NFC East leaders are in a desperate spot, facing a division rival that's 2-0. The Giants, who lost a ton of close games LY, have won their two games this year by a total of four points. So that's certainly a reversal of fortune. Last week against the Saints, they won despite not scoring an offensive TD. A decision to kick a FG and not go in the end zone at the end of the game cost bettors a cover. What I see here is a desperate 0-2 underdog in a division tilt. I'm going to take the points as the G-Men are a little lucky to be 2-0. I'd like to see Washington run the ball a bit more here w/ Matt Jones. Granted, New York is conceding just 3.3 YPC so far, but that's because they just faced a Saints team that ran the ball only 13 times for 41 yards. It was definitely Cousins that blew the game LW as w/ his team up 23-20 he threw a terrible INT in the end zone. Dallas wound up driving for the GW TD on the subsequent drive. There were also two Redskins drives that started inside the Cowboys' 40-yd line, but only resulted in field goals. I have to believe the 'Skins offense is better than its shown so far. I also don't believe the Giants' defense is as good as it's looked. Though New York has allowed only 32 points in two games, they haven't forced any turnovers and have just two sacks. MetLife Stadium has been a house of horrors for the Redskins the L3 seasons as they've lost by double digits every time. But I can't see that scenario playing out a fourth straight time. The L3 seasons have seen the Giants go just 3-3 straight up and 2-4 ATS following B2B SU wins. Again, I have to see Washington's third down conversion rate and red zone efficiency improving. WR DeSean Jackson is on track to play here. The whole Odell Beckham Jr vs. Josh Norman situation is overhyped and irrelevant to me here. The Giants have a big hole along the offensive line entering this game w/ RT Marshall Newhouse out. I expect the Redskins D-line to take advantage and lead the team to no worse than a cover (possible outright win). 10* Washington |
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09-22-16 | Texans v. Patriots | Top | 0-27 | Loss | -115 | 21 h 41 m | Show |
10* 1st Half Houston (8:25 ET): Please note that this is a 1st half play only where I am taking the Texans. As you know, I "rolled the dice" and went w/ the Patriots as a 1H play in Wk 1. Despite starting Jimmy Garoppolo against the heavily favored Cardinals, the Pats went into the halftime break w/ a 10-7 edge and wound up taking the game outright, 23-21. In Wk 2, Garoppolo and the team looked even better against the division rival Dolphins. The QB threw three first half TD passes en route to New England entering halftime w/ a massive 24-3 edge at home. But, as you now know, all did not end well. Garoppolo suffered a shoulder injury and while the Pats had a big enough lead to hold on for a (31-24) victory, that means rookie Jacoby Brissett has been thrust into the starter's role for Week 3. Clearly, the Tom Brady suspension could now catch up with the Patriots. Yes, Garoppolo came in and played remarkably well the last two weeks. But consider that he had a full summer to prepare for Arizona. Miami is a bad team. Now you're asking a rookie to make his first career start, on a short week no less, against a good defense. Through two games, the Texans have allowed just 26 points (3rd best) and have the most sacks (9). They have JJ Watt, in case you forgot. Last week, this defense held Kansas City to just a field goal in the first half. The Chiefs first four drives resulted in eight yards - total. In other words, don't expect Brissett to have the same kind of initial success that Garoppolo did. While the rookie did complete six of nine pass attempts for 92 yards last week, the offense scored only a single TD under his direction. Obviously, New England's record under Belichick when priced as an underdog must be respected here. (Note: I'm not convinced they will close as a dog). But I still believe Houston will go into halftime with the lead. The defense has not given up a touchdown in six quarters. The offense, with Brock Osweiler at the helm, should be able to move the ball on a Patriots defense which is w/o the suspended Rob Ninkovich. Note Ryan Tannehill was able to throw for nearly 400 yds last week w/ 3 second half TD's against NE. I don't buy the reports that Garropolo might play here. That's a total decoy. I look for Brissett to struggle and the Texans to lead at the half. 10* 1st Half Houston |
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09-19-16 | Eagles v. Bears -3 | Top | 29-14 | Loss | -117 | 124 h 28 m | Show |
10* Chicago (8:30 ET): Incredibly, this marks just the third time in the L23 games where the Bears will be a favorite! They went 1-7 SU, 1-6-1 ATS at Soldier Field last season. None of that may sound encouraging, but how about some long overdue progression to the mean? Philadelphia and its rookie QB Carson Wentz are nowhere near as good as they looked last week in a 29-10 win and cover over the moribund Browns. I'll hold to the the belief that the Eagles will end being one of the very worst teams in this league. Chicago, on the other hand, is a team that I have improving in the second year under HC John Fox. It starts w/ better play at home. With this line move, you'll want to note that it came despite the ticket count actually being in favor of Philly. That's a signal to me of "sharp money" liking the Monsters of the Midway in this one. So do I. Lay the points. Eagles fans had to be happy w/ what they saw out of Wentz in Week 1. But, again, keep in mind that 278 yard, two TD performance came at the expense of a terrible Browns' defense. Chicago's defensive performance from Week 1 (against Houston) won't necessarily turn any heads, but they did allow only 23 pts and had the lead going into the fourth quarter. Almost certainly, the Bears will give Wentz more problems than the Browns did. This is also Wentz's first road start. I think the accolades drawn by the rookie QB over the past seven days are a bit of an overreaction. Wentz is already down one key receiver, that being TE Zach Ertz. This was not a strong receiving corps to begin with. The Chicago offense was a massive disappointment in Week 1. They gained only 258 total yards. But they also faced a strong Texans defense. QB Jay Cutler actually had a pretty good 2015, but loses OC Adam Gase. But he gains WR Kevin White, who missed all of his rookie season due to injury. White and Alshon Jeffery should form a strong receiving tandem. Cutler should look to exploit a weak Eagles secondary, which lost Leodis McKelvin to a hamstring injury last week. Remember that they had traded Eric Rowe to New England right before the start of the season. Bottom line is that I put little to no stock into Philly's win last week and believe the Bears are poised to be a lot better this year. 10* Chicago |
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09-18-16 | Packers -2.5 v. Vikings | Top | 14-17 | Loss | -103 | 52 h 7 m | Show |
8* Green Bay (8:30 ET): I fully anticipate the Packers being the "squarest" of sides tonight. While usually I hold such plays in a bit of disdain, there is no disputing the Vikings were fortunate winners in Week 1 (beat Tennessee 25-16). There's also, in my mind, no disputing their likelihood of them regressing in 2016 after a surprise run to the NFC North crown last year. A now 15-3 ATS mark since the start of last season has to start being chipped away at. The QB situation is the obvious thing to point to when it comes to regression. While Mike Zimmer went w/ Shaun Hill in Wk 1, it will be Sam Bradford getting the nod tonight. I've never been impressed w/ Bradford. Much will be made of Minnesota opening its new home stadium tonght. But the numbers don't lie; NFL teams typically see homefield advantage decline in the first two years of a new stadium. Remember they're now have to adjust to the new setting as well. Lay the points. The Vikings were shut out in the 1H last week, but rallied to beat the Titans on the back of TWO defensive scores. The Hill-led offense never did get in the end zone and Adrian Peterson was held to only 31 yards rushing on 19 carries. As a Tennessee backer in that game, the result was quite frustrating. The step up in class for Minnesota here is pretty significant. With Teddy Bridgewater at the helm LY, they often struggled to beat the good teams on the schedule. Now having turn to Bradford, I don't see that "knock" against them changing This is a bit of a revenge spot for the Pack, who lost in Week 17 here in Minnesota last year, a game that decided the division. GB comes into 2016 as the favorite to win the North though and actually projects to be favored in every game this season. I think the short number is a tremendous value here. Yes, they were held under 300 total yards LW vs. Jacksonville and failed to cover (by one-half point.) But note Minnesota is 0-2 SU/ATS as a home dog of three points or less the last two seasons. Aaron Rodgers going against Bradford is obviously a major edge here for the Pack and the GB offense is going to be tons better this year w/ a healthy Jordy Nelson back in the lineup. 8* Green Bay |
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09-18-16 | Falcons +4.5 v. Raiders | Top | 35-28 | Win | 100 | 48 h 2 m | Show |
10* Atlanta (4:25 ET): The Falcons lost outright as favorites last week (31-24 at home to Tampa Bay). Meanwhile, Oakland won outright as a road dog (35-34 at New Orleans). Those disparate results are likely to make the Silver and Black the more attractive option to the public, but I'll use that misconception to my advantage and take the points here. It was the slightest of edges in total yards for the Dirty Birds LW (374-371) while the Raiders were outgained by the Saints, 507-486. A defense that gives up that many yards certainly has to be viewed as shaky in the chalk role and it's not as if Oakland is favored regularly. In fact, the previous two seasons have seen them go only 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS laying points. They were 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS in non-conference games prior to last week's last second win. Atlanta's defense had its own issues against Tampa Bay. But I still have faith that HC Dan Quinn (former DC in Seattle) will turn this unit around. The pass rush, or rather a lack of it, has long been the albatross for this franchise and they failed to record even a single sack last week. But they'll be facing a pretty weak offensive line in this matchup and the Raiders are down their starting right tackle. I think the Atlanta offense will have little difficulty moving the ball here. Facing the prospect of an 0-2 SU start, this game is a real referendum on QB Matt Ryan. As a dog, Ryan has eight outright wins the previous two seasons. Note the Falcons are 6-1 ATS the previous seven years in Week 2. Oakland has rarely been able to sustain success through the years. They are just 7-21-1 ATS their L29 games following an ATS win. I am not as high on this team as some others are as I think LY's jump from 3 to 7 wins indicates either regression or plateauing is on the horizon for 2016. I'm still not sold on QB Derek Carr. Remember the Raiders trailed the Saints by double digits in the 2H last week and twice needed a touchdown and two-point conversion in the 4Q. They won the game w/ a gutsy two-point try in the final minute. Had that not been successful, we'd be looking at this team and this game MUCH differently. 10* Atlanta |
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09-18-16 | Jaguars v. Chargers -3 | Top | 14-38 | Win | 100 | 48 h 2 m | Show |
8* San Diego (4:25 ET): Prior to Week 1, I went on the record and called for San Diego to be the most improved team in the league. I had them last week plus the points at Kansas City and while they did cover there (+6.5), a 33-27 overtime loss is one that stings. The Bolts had leads of 21-3 and 27-10 (in the 4Q!) that evaporated. The game really swung with a Keenan Allen injury (now out for the season - ACL). Likewise, Jacksonville covered, but lost, in Week 1. They played Green Bay tough, but ultimately came up short, 28-24 as 4.5-pt dogs. It's interesting that the public is on them here, as a short road dog. Pyrrhic half-point covers for both seem to have created a fairly even matchup, but I'm sticking to my guns here. I believe the Chargers and going to be much improved while the Jags are overrated. Lay the points. Philip Rivers looked every bit as good as I anticipated last week. He completed 25 of 36 passes and I still think he's good enough to overcome the Allen injury. Rivers has certainly had Jacksonville's number in the past w/ a five-game win streak (5-0 ATS) including LY's 31-25 road win. There, he completed 29 of 43 pass attempts for 300 yards and four touchdowns. The Chargers' 5-0 SU run against the Jags is their longest active win streak against any opponent. It only dates back to 2010 as the teams have played every year since then w/ the exception of 2012. The Rivers-led offense has scored 30+ pts in four of those games, including 33 in a 19-point victory the last time Jacksonville had to visit the West Coast. Again, I feel Jacksonville is being overvalued coming into the year. Yes, they played Green Bay tough last week. But that was at home. Yes, there are some nice individual pieces on this young team. But I do not believe they are set to take the leap. The offense ran for only 48 yards on 26 carries a week ago. That's awful. Again, it is odd to see an underdog receiving this much love from the public. It's created a situation where, to me, the value lies w/ the short home favorite. Again, it was a tough loss for SD last week. But for three quarters they looked like the better team compared to KC, who is a superior foe when compared to Jacksonville. 8* San Diego |
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09-18-16 | Saints v. Giants -4.5 | Top | 13-16 | Loss | -108 | 93 h 52 m | Show |
8* NY Giants (1:00 ET): Truthfully, I don't think the Saints will win many games this season. But last week I thought would be one of them. In the home opener, they led the Raiders by two touchdowns early in the second half. But their always suspect defense cost them another game by giving up 22 pts in the fourth quarter, including game-tying TD + 2pt conversion, then a game-winning TD + 2pt conversion. Losing a one-point game on a 2-pt try in the final minute really has to sting and now Drew Brees and company have to take their act out on the road (where they are never as strong). That leaky defense figures to be a problem facing a NY Giants offense that features Odell Beckham Jr. I look for the G-Men to win this one in a rout. The Giants are a team due for some luck to go their way. Week 1's 20-19 win over Dallas was a good start. Though slightly outgained by the Cowboys (328-316), the G-Men pulled out the rare close win. Games decided by 8 pts or less did not go this team's way LY (just 3-8 SU), thus a reversal of fortune is probably in the cards here. Maybe I'm in the minority, but I like the coaching change from Tom Coughlin to Ben McAdoo. I certainly like the offense to have a big game here considering the last two times the Giants have faced the Saints, they've scored total of 101 points! New Orleans gave up nearly 500 yards total last week. They did so while allowing 6.4 YPC rushing, a 63.2 completion percentage and 7.6 yards per pass, all horrible averages. Eli Manning should certainly have a big day here. Again, we all know how the Saints aren't as strong on the road. Last year, they went 3-5 SU away from the Superdome, but the key is that only one time did they score more than 24 points (27-21 win over the Colts). In five of the games, they were held to 20 pts or less. At home, they did beat the Giants in one of the wildest games of the season, 52-49. This go around, only the Giants will be able to sniff that point total. You really have to worry about the Saints' cornerbacks going against this Giants' receiving corps. Last week, NO lost its top corner Delvin Breaux to a broken leg. Beckham had eight catches for 130 yards in LY's meeting. By the way Breaux's replacement, rookie Ken Crawley, was the one that gave up the final TD against Oakland LW. 8* NY Giants |
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09-18-16 | Titans +6 v. Lions | Top | 16-15 | Win | 100 | 44 h 28 m | Show |
8* Tennessee (1:00 ET): In true "Titan-like" fashion, Tennessee really let me down in Week 1 as they turned a 10-0 halftime lead over the Vikings (were getting 2.5) into a 25-16 loss and non-cover. This despite holding Adrian Peterson to only 31 yards rushing (on 19 carries) and the entire Vikings offense to no touchdowns. The game swung dramatically on a pair of Minnesota defensive TDs. As for Detroit, they went to Indianapolis and won 39-35 as two-point underdogs. The Lions were actually a pretty popular pick among sharps in the LVH SuperContest, thus it's not a surprise to see them now getting more support here in Week 2. But I think the line has been driven up too much and the Titans are a good play plus the points. I could easily see them taking this game straight up as well. At 4-12-1 ATS since the start of last season, Tennessee is really leaving its few remaining backers broke. But I'm not afraid to "get in at the ground floor" and "buy low" on this stock. This team absolutely should improve in 2016 provided QB Marcus Mariota stays healthy. As I conceded last week, Mike Mularkey is as uninspired as it gets as a HC choice, but the team will improve in spite of him. I absolutely believe they would have beaten Minnesota LW had it not been for a -3 turnover ratio. Again, the defense allowed no touchdowns last week and two of the Vikings' four field goals were long (45+ yards). Yes, there is some concern going against a better offense and QB (Matthew Stafford) here, but note those 39 points the Lions scored LW came at the expense of a very bad and banged up Colts defense. I think that the defenses that each team faced in Week 1 play a big role in handicapping this contest. Tennessee goes from facing a Vikings defense that will likely finish the season ranked in the top 10 to a Detroit stop unit that likely won't finish anywhere near that ranking. The Lions just gave up 400+ total yards w/ Andrew Luck completing 31 of 47 pass attempts. Another key here is the Lions laying so many points. They were favored just five times all of last season and only once by more than 3.5 points. I simply think this line is an overreaction to Detroit winning in Week 1 and Tennessee's SU record last year. The Titans are due! 8* Tennessee |
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09-18-16 | Chiefs v. Texans -2 | Top | 12-19 | Win | 100 | 44 h 28 m | Show |
8* Houston (1:00 ET): Certainly, the oddsmakers are giving some credence to the fact that the Texans now have Brock Osweiler as their starting QB. Last year, with the "immortal duo" of Brian Hoyer and Brandon Weeden at the helm, Houston checked in as a three-point home underdog for a playoff game vs. the Chiefs and promptly lost 30-0. Now, with Osweiler at QB, they're slight favorites for the rematch. The revenge angle can often times be overplayed, but I do think it matters here. Kansas City was very fortunate to win a 11th straight regular season contest LW as they rallied back from a 27-10 fourth quarter deficit (at home) to overcome the Chargers in overtime. They remain very banged up - on both sides of the ball. Yes, I played against the Chiefs LW and "lived to tell the story." For three quarters, truthfully, the game went just as I'd anticipated. They were being thoroughly outclassed by the Chargers and went into halftime down 21-3. That game really swung w/ the Keenan Allen ACL injury, which left the San Diego offense virtually impotent. Note it was the largest comeback in Chiefs history! But it shouldn't mask the fact that there are major injuries on both sides of the ball w/ this team. On offense, RB Jamaal Charles is again expected to be out. Two starting offensive lineman, both guards, are also looking they'll miss this game. Thus I'm not sure backup Spencer Ware can replicate his performance against the Chargers here against a better Texans defense. Speaking of defense, KC is w/o Justin Houston, possibly Tamba Hali and LB Sam Barrington left w/ a hamstring injury last week. The secondary is in questionable shape as well. So, yeah, this is a very injured team that was lucky to win its first game. Houston is also off a win, although theirs came by a more comfortable margin. Here at home, they beat the Bears 23-14 as six-point chalk. Yes, they too trailed going into the fourth quarter, but they also finished w/ a 344-258 edge in total yards. Osweiler looked good in throwing for 231 yds and two scores. The defense certainly did its job as well. The SU/ATS win improved the Texans' record as favorites to a very strong 13-2 SU/12-3 ATS the L3 seasons! Thus, as a short home favorite, they are a great value here as they go for DOUBLE revenge (also lost to the Chiefs in Wk 1 last year). Osweiler will be a difference maker against the banged up KC defense. 8* Houston |
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Bryan Power NFL Top Sides Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-17-17 | Packers +3 v. Falcons | Top | 23-34 | Loss | -125 | 102 h 36 m | Show |
09-17-17 | 49ers +14 v. Seahawks | Top | 9-12 | Win | 100 | 97 h 26 m | Show |
09-17-17 | Bears +7 v. Bucs | Top | 7-29 | Loss | -105 | 94 h 2 m | Show |
09-17-17 | Browns +8.5 v. Ravens | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -110 | 94 h 2 m | Show |
09-17-17 | Bills +7 v. Panthers | Top | 3-9 | Win | 100 | 94 h 2 m | Show |
09-17-17 | Patriots v. Saints +7 | Top | 36-20 | Loss | -110 | 94 h 2 m | Show |
09-11-17 | Chargers +3.5 v. Broncos | Top | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 1814 h 54 m | Show |
09-11-17 | Saints v. Vikings -3 | Top | 19-29 | Win | 100 | 21 h 18 m | Show |
09-10-17 | Panthers v. 49ers +6 | Top | 23-3 | Loss | -105 | 221 h 46 m | Show |
09-10-17 | Jaguars +4.5 v. Texans | Top | 29-7 | Win | 100 | 1781 h 35 m | Show |
09-10-17 | Eagles +2.5 v. Redskins | Top | 30-17 | Win | 100 | 1781 h 35 m | Show |
09-10-17 | Steelers v. Browns +9 | Top | 21-18 | Win | 100 | 1781 h 35 m | Show |
09-10-17 | Falcons v. Bears +7.5 | Top | 23-17 | Win | 100 | 217 h 22 m | Show |
02-05-17 | Patriots v. Falcons +3 | Top | 34-28 | Loss | -100 | 149 h 58 m | Show |
01-22-17 | Packers v. Falcons -4 | Top | 21-44 | Win | 100 | 74 h 56 m | Show |
01-15-17 | Steelers v. Chiefs -1 | Top | 18-16 | Loss | -115 | 101 h 13 m | Show |
01-14-17 | Seahawks v. Falcons -5 | Top | 20-36 | Win | 100 | 73 h 29 m | Show |
01-08-17 | Giants v. Packers -4.5 | Top | 13-38 | Win | 100 | 122 h 7 m | Show |
01-07-17 | Lions v. Seahawks -8 | Top | 6-26 | Win | 100 | 102 h 43 m | Show |
12-26-16 | Lions +7 v. Cowboys | Top | 21-42 | Loss | -105 | 59 h 27 m | Show |
12-25-16 | Ravens v. Steelers -5.5 | Top | 27-31 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 57 m | Show |
12-24-16 | Dolphins v. Bills -3.5 | Top | 34-31 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 41 m | Show |
12-24-16 | Titans v. Jaguars +5 | Top | 17-38 | Win | 100 | 51 h 41 m | Show |
12-22-16 | Giants v. Eagles +2.5 | Top | 19-24 | Win | 105 | 30 h 24 m | Show |
12-18-16 | Patriots v. Broncos +3.5 | Top | 16-3 | Loss | -125 | 65 h 13 m | Show |
12-18-16 | Raiders v. Chargers +3 | Top | 19-16 | Push | 0 | 65 h 13 m | Show |
12-18-16 | Packers v. Bears +5.5 | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 62 h 48 m | Show |
12-17-16 | Dolphins v. Jets +2.5 | Top | 34-13 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 20 m | Show |
12-11-16 | Redskins v. Eagles | Top | 27-22 | Loss | -110 | 108 h 21 m | Show |
12-11-16 | Steelers v. Bills +2 | Top | 27-20 | Loss | -108 | 108 h 21 m | Show |
12-11-16 | Cardinals +1 v. Dolphins | Top | 23-26 | Loss | -105 | 108 h 20 m | Show |
12-05-16 | Colts v. Jets +2 | Top | 41-10 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
12-04-16 | Panthers v. Seahawks -7 | Top | 7-40 | Win | 100 | 78 h 58 m | Show |
12-04-16 | Bucs v. Chargers -3.5 | Top | 28-21 | Loss | -110 | 74 h 54 m | Show |
12-04-16 | Redskins v. Cardinals -1 | Top | 23-31 | Win | 100 | 74 h 53 m | Show |
12-04-16 | Bills +3 v. Raiders | Top | 24-38 | Loss | -100 | 74 h 34 m | Show |
11-28-16 | Packers v. Eagles -3.5 | Top | 27-13 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 45 m | Show |
11-27-16 | Chargers -2.5 v. Texans | Top | 21-13 | Win | 100 | 4 h 40 m | Show |
11-27-16 | Giants v. Browns +6.5 | Top | 27-13 | Loss | -101 | 3 h 30 m | Show |
11-24-16 | Vikings +2 v. Lions | Top | 13-16 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 47 m | Show |
11-20-16 | Packers +2.5 v. Redskins | Top | 24-42 | Loss | -100 | 93 h 44 m | Show |
11-20-16 | Eagles +7 v. Seahawks | Top | 15-26 | Loss | -130 | 89 h 39 m | Show |
11-20-16 | Jaguars +7 v. Lions | Top | 19-26 | Push | 0 | 85 h 15 m | Show |
11-20-16 | Ravens +7.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -123 | 85 h 14 m | Show |
11-17-16 | Saints v. Panthers -3 | Top | 20-23 | Push | 0 | 21 h 40 m | Show |
11-14-16 | Bengals v. Giants | Top | 20-21 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
11-13-16 | Seahawks +7.5 v. Patriots | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 69 h 3 m | Show |
11-13-16 | Cowboys v. Steelers -1 | Top | 35-30 | Loss | -125 | 65 h 59 m | Show |
11-13-16 | 49ers +13.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 65 h 58 m | Show |
11-13-16 | Broncos +3 v. Saints | Top | 25-23 | Win | 100 | 62 h 34 m | Show |
11-06-16 | Colts +7.5 v. Packers | Top | 31-26 | Win | 100 | 68 h 32 m | Show |
11-06-16 | Saints v. 49ers +4.5 | Top | 41-23 | Loss | -105 | 67 h 13 m | Show |
11-06-16 | Eagles v. Giants -2 | Top | 23-28 | Win | 100 | 64 h 9 m | Show |
11-06-16 | Jaguars +7.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 14-19 | Win | 100 | 64 h 9 m | Show |
11-06-16 | Cowboys v. Browns +7 | Top | 35-10 | Loss | -108 | 64 h 8 m | Show |
10-31-16 | Vikings v. Bears +5 | Top | 10-20 | Win | 100 | 20 h 6 m | Show |
10-30-16 | Chargers +4.5 v. Broncos | Top | 19-27 | Loss | -106 | 50 h 36 m | Show |
10-30-16 | Patriots v. Bills +6 | Top | 41-25 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 31 m | Show |
10-30-16 | Cardinals v. Panthers -3 | Top | 20-30 | Win | 100 | 47 h 31 m | Show |
10-24-16 | Texans +9 v. Broncos | Top | 9-27 | Loss | -112 | 20 h 1 m | Show |
10-23-16 | Seahawks v. Cardinals -2 | Top | 6-6 | Loss | -105 | 78 h 47 m | Show |
10-23-16 | Patriots v. Steelers +7.5 | Top | 27-16 | Loss | -120 | 74 h 42 m | Show |
10-23-16 | Chargers +6.5 v. Falcons | Top | 33-30 | Win | 100 | 74 h 32 m | Show |
10-23-16 | Bucs v. 49ers +1 | Top | 34-17 | Loss | -108 | 63 h 16 m | Show |
10-23-16 | Vikings v. Eagles +3 | Top | 10-21 | Win | 100 | 70 h 29 m | Show |
10-23-16 | Raiders v. Jaguars | Top | 33-16 | Loss | -125 | 70 h 29 m | Show |
10-20-16 | Bears +8.5 v. Packers | Top | 10-26 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 19 m | Show |
10-17-16 | Jets +8.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 3-28 | Loss | -130 | 21 h 3 m | Show |
10-16-16 | Colts v. Texans -2.5 | Top | 23-26 | Win | 100 | 54 h 29 m | Show |
10-16-16 | Cowboys v. Packers -4 | Top | 30-16 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 25 m | Show |
10-16-16 | Chiefs -1 v. Raiders | Top | 26-10 | Win | 100 | 50 h 5 m | Show |
10-16-16 | Bengals +9 v. Patriots | Top | 17-35 | Loss | -110 | 98 h 33 m | Show |
10-16-16 | Browns +7.5 v. Titans | Top | 26-28 | Win | 100 | 98 h 33 m | Show |
10-16-16 | Steelers v. Dolphins +7.5 | Top | 15-30 | Win | 100 | 98 h 32 m | Show |
10-13-16 | Broncos v. Chargers +3.5 | Top | 13-21 | Win | 100 | 33 h 58 m | Show |
10-09-16 | Bills +2.5 v. Rams | Top | 30-19 | Win | 102 | 98 h 16 m | Show |
10-09-16 | Chargers +3.5 v. Raiders | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 98 h 7 m | Show |
10-09-16 | Patriots v. Browns +10.5 | Top | 33-13 | Loss | -108 | 95 h 54 m | Show |
10-09-16 | Eagles v. Lions +3 | Top | 23-24 | Win | 100 | 95 h 53 m | Show |
10-09-16 | Jets +7 v. Steelers | Top | 13-31 | Loss | -102 | 95 h 53 m | Show |
10-09-16 | Texans +7 v. Vikings | Top | 13-31 | Loss | -115 | 48 h 40 m | Show |
10-03-16 | Giants +4 v. Vikings | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -105 | 34 h 45 m | Show |
10-02-16 | Broncos v. Bucs +3 | Top | 27-7 | Loss | -109 | 46 h 45 m | Show |
10-02-16 | Lions v. Bears +3 | Top | 14-17 | Win | 100 | 73 h 34 m | Show |
10-02-16 | Titans +5 v. Texans | Top | 20-27 | Loss | -115 | 73 h 33 m | Show |
09-29-16 | Dolphins v. Bengals -7.5 | Top | 7-22 | Win | 100 | 21 h 6 m | Show |
09-26-16 | Falcons v. Saints -2.5 | Top | 45-32 | Loss | -114 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
09-25-16 | Bears +7.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 17-31 | Loss | -127 | 50 h 0 m | Show |
09-25-16 | Browns +10 v. Dolphins | Top | 24-30 | Win | 100 | 70 h 6 m | Show |
09-25-16 | Ravens v. Jaguars +1.5 | Top | 19-17 | Loss | -102 | 70 h 5 m | Show |
09-25-16 | Cardinals v. Bills +4 | Top | 18-33 | Win | 100 | 70 h 2 m | Show |
09-25-16 | Redskins +3.5 v. Giants | Top | 29-27 | Win | 100 | 43 h 31 m | Show |
09-22-16 | Texans v. Patriots | Top | 0-27 | Loss | -115 | 21 h 41 m | Show |
09-19-16 | Eagles v. Bears -3 | Top | 29-14 | Loss | -117 | 124 h 28 m | Show |
09-18-16 | Packers -2.5 v. Vikings | Top | 14-17 | Loss | -103 | 52 h 7 m | Show |
09-18-16 | Falcons +4.5 v. Raiders | Top | 35-28 | Win | 100 | 48 h 2 m | Show |
09-18-16 | Jaguars v. Chargers -3 | Top | 14-38 | Win | 100 | 48 h 2 m | Show |
09-18-16 | Saints v. Giants -4.5 | Top | 13-16 | Loss | -108 | 93 h 52 m | Show |
09-18-16 | Titans +6 v. Lions | Top | 16-15 | Win | 100 | 44 h 28 m | Show |
09-18-16 | Chiefs v. Texans -2 | Top | 12-19 | Win | 100 | 44 h 28 m | Show |