Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-04-17 | Magic v. Hornets OVER 218 | Top | 94-104 | Loss | -115 | 3 h 52 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: OVER 218 Orlando Magic @ Charlotte Hornets, 7PM ET - These two teams want to play fast and that makes for a very high scoring game. Orlando is the 6th fastest paced team in the league while the Hornets are 10th. Last season the Hornets were 19th fastest paced team but have made a concentrated effort to increase offensive possessions this year. Orlando is a top 10 scoring team this season at 108PPG and have topped 100 points in 19 of their 24 games this season. Charlotte has scored 100 plus points in 14 of their 21 games this season. Both teams are in the bottom half of the NBA when it comes to defensive efficiency rankings with the Hornets at 17th and the Magic 27th. Orlando played last night which helps our thought process here as their games after playing the previous night have averaged 224 total points per game. These two foes met earlier this season and combined to 233 total points which pushed their OVER record to 6-3 the last nine meetings. The bet here is OVER. |
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12-02-17 | Green Bay v. Belmont -14.5 | Top | 75-86 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 11 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Belmont -14.5 over UW Green Bay, Saturday at 2:00 PM ET Belmont will be hungry for a big win here at home after losing their last 3 games. The Bruins have played a very tough slate (72nd strength of schedule) including 4 top 100 teams. They are 2-2 in those games having beaten MTSU on the road and they topped Vandy by 9 here at home. However their most recent two top 100 games were losses @ Providence by just 1 point and @ TCU earlier this week. Now they take a HUGE step down facing a UWGB team that is among the worst shooting teams in the nation. The Phoenix have played a brutally easy schedule with 4 of their 5 opponents ranked 259th or lower. Their most recent two game home stand Green Bay faced two of the weakest teams in the nation. They beat Florida A&M (ranked 336th nationally out of 351) and won by 7. They followed that up with a double digit loss at home vs Stetson who’s ranked 310th nationally. Despite that weak schedule, the Phoenix are shooting just 34% on the season and only 31% in games away from home. They rank 341st nationally in eFG%. On top of that, this team loves to play up tempo which is a recipe for being on the wrong end of blowouts when you can’t shoot and playing a solid motivated team on the road. Belmont is a very solid program coming off a 23-7 years with 7 straight 20 win seasons under their belt. Unlike UWGB they shoot the ball very well coming in at 46th nationally in eFG%. Inside the arc they hit over 60% of their attempts (11th nationally) and that’s against a very tough schedule as we stated. They should destroy the Phoenix inside the arc where UWGB allows opponents to shoot over 55%. Belmont lost their most recent home game which is a rarity as this team has won 34 of their last 37 games on their home court. You can bet coming off 3 straight loss – to teams all rated much higher than GB – and off a home loss this team is itching to blow someone out. We think it happens here. |
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12-01-17 | Pelicans -2.5 v. Jazz | Top | 108-114 | Loss | -114 | 6 h 54 m | Show |
We will play ON #715 New Orleans Pelicans (-2.5) over @ Utah Jazz, 9PM ET. If you were a casual bettor and you looked at tonight's game you'd probably bet the home team here that has won 4 straight games and that's GETTING points. Utah's 9-4 SU home record is a little deceiving as only 4 of those wins came over teams with winning records. In their most recent four game winning streak they beat an awful Bulls team, good Bucks and Nuggets teams and a beat up, declining Clippers team. We really love the fact the Pelicans are coming off an awful loss at home to the Wolves where Anthony Davis was ejected. Prior to that game the Pelicans had 3 days off so they'll be rested and ready here. Utah doesn't have the depth on the interior to match Boogie Cousins and Davis with Rudy Gobert on the shelf so points in the paint will be easy to come by for New Orleans. The Pelicans have covered 7 of eleven road games this year and will get a much need W in Utah tonight. |
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11-30-17 | South Carolina v. Temple +1.5 | Top | 60-76 | Win | 100 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Temple +1.5 over South Carolina, Thursday at 9:00 PM ET on ESPNU The Gamecocks come in with a 5-1 record but that was expected as they’ve played a very easy slate thus far. In fact, their game vs Temple tonight will be their first against a top 100 team this season. The highest rated team the SC has played was Illinois State at 117th and they lost that game. Other than that they’ve played 2 games vs 124th ranked Western Michigan and then nobody else ranked inside the top 200. They look like they are a bit overrated right now and that’s understandable as the Gamecocks were in the Final 4 a year ago. This isn’t the same team however with only 34% of their total minutes returning from last season. Temple, on the other hand, is a very experienced team with 75% of their minutes back from last year. The Owls have played only 4 games on the season (3-1 record) but even with that they’ve played a MUCH tougher slate to date. Unlike South Carolina, the Owls have played 3 top 100 teams and beat them all (Clemson, Auburn, and Old Dominion) and those games were on a neutral court. With that, this team has proven they can get it done away from home as they have not yet played a home game. While tonight’s game is another neutral site venue in NYC it’s much closer for Temple (just 96 miles away). Both of these teams score the majority of their points from beyond the arc but Temple is much better at shooting from deep (42% from 3 for Temple to 35% for South Carolina). The Owls are also defend the arc more efficiently allowing just 28% which is 24th nationally. We feel that Temple is and will be much better than people might think (undervalued) while South Carolina will have a big drop from last year’s magical run (overvalued). With Temple getting points here will grab it as we expect the Owls to win outright. |
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11-29-17 | UNLV v. Northern Iowa | Top | 68-77 | Win | 100 | 4 h 46 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: #746 Northern Iowa (-1) over UNLV, 8Pm ET. We will play AGAINST the UNLV Runnin Rebels at Northern Iowa Panthers. The staff at Northern Iowa is really good and they'll have their team prepared for a game against the undefeated Rebels tonight. UNI has played the 94th toughest schedule to date featuring games against North Carolina and Villanova. The Panthers game against Nova was much closer than the final score indicates especially considering UNI didn't attempt a free throw in the game. UNLV is undefeated on the season at 6-0 and have some impressive individual statistics but a LARGE reason why they have such fantastic numbers is a result of a very weak schedule (344th). This will mark their first true road game as they are leaving the state of Nevada for the first time this season. This roster features 8 new faces and are young to begin with so a tough road date, facing a team off a loss will be a tall order. UNLV was picked to finish 6th in the MWC so clearly they've over-exceeded expectations to this point. The Panthers return 12 letterwinners from last year's team including 3 starters. The Panthers have the 8th best scoring defense in the nation and have held their last six opponents to under 53PPG on 33.5% shooting. UNI was picked to finish 2nd in the tough Missouri Valley Conference and have a 136-35 SU record at the McLeod Center. Easy call here with the home team. |
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11-28-17 | Wizards v. Wolves OVER 211 | Top | 92-89 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 10 m | Show |
Play OVER in the Washington Wizards @ Minnesota Timberwolves game, 8PM ET. - The average points scored in an NBA game this year is 211. The total on this game is set slightly higher than that but both teams averages suggest a higher scoring game. Both teams are right around the league average in pace of play with 97.5 possessions per game. When it comes to offensive efficiency ratings the Wizards rank 7th at 1.097 points per possession. Minnesota is slightly better at the 5th spot at 1.103PPP. In terms of defensive efficiency ratings the Wiz are slightly better than average while the Wolves are far worse with the 4th worst DEFF team in the league. Last year when these two teams faced off they produced total points of 223 and 217, both overs. When both teams are playing with rest they tend to score more too. The oddsmakers are suggesting this will be an 'average' NBA scoring game but the key stats suggest otherwise. PLAY OVER! |
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11-28-17 | Tenn Chattanooga v. Akron UNDER 134.5 | Top | 70-75 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 53 m | Show |
ASA play on: #545/546 UNDER 134.5 Tennessee Chattanooga @ Akron, 7PM ET - We'll start with pace of play in this matchup as the tempo of this game sets up to be slow. Akron was the 2nd slowest team in MAC play a year ago and currently rank 279th in pace this season (out of 351). Tenn-Chat is very similar as they were the second slowest team in the Southern Conf last season and this year they are averaging just 70.5 possessions per game which is 271st. Both teams are also better defensively than they are offensively. Chattanooga is one of the worst offensive efficiency teams in all of college basketball at 301st but have an EFG% defense that is 193rd. The Akron Zips are 226th in OEFF but 46th in DEFF. The Zips are giving up just 63PPG this season which is 31st in NCAAB. The Mocs give up 73PPG on 45% shooting but their stats are a little skewed after playing an UAB team that is one of the higher scoring teams in college hoops right now. These two teams have less than 26% of their minutes played last year so it's not like veteran guys can step up on the offensive end of the court. UTC on a 9-1 UNDER streak while Akron has played UNDER in 46 of their last 63 home games. The BET HERE IS UNDER the total! |
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11-26-17 | Texas A&M v. USC -3 | Top | 75-59 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* USC -3 over Texas A&M, Sunday at 10 PM ET This is a terrible spot for A&M. We realize they are a very solid team this year, but not in this spot. This will be the Aggies 4th game in the last 7 days. Not only that, they’ve been all over the country. They played in New York City last Monday & Tuesday. Then played at home on Friday. Now 2 days later they are on the west coast @ USC. Add that to the fact this team began the season in Germany vs West Virginia and they’ve put on more miles than most everyone in college basketball. A&M head coach Kennedy mentioned his team was sluggish at home Friday night in a win over Pepperdine. Fatigue was a factor according to Kennedy. USC is a team that was 26-10 last year, made it to the Sweet 16 last year and returns all 5 starters. They are 4-0 and should be well rested here having not played since Wednesday and that was a home game. USC beat A&M on the road last year 65-63 with the same starting 5 and we think with this situation they win and cover at home tonight. |
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11-25-17 | Spurs v. Hornets | Top | 106-86 | Win | 100 | 5 h 27 m | Show |
ASA play on: San Antonio Spurs (-1.5) over Charlotte Hornets, 7PM ET - The Bugs are coming off a very tough loss last night to the Cavaliers by a point and this marks their 3rd game in four nights, second of a back to back. San Antonio meanwhile is rested AND coming off a loss so expect a bounce back here. As you would expect the Spurs have a decisive advantage defensively with the 6th best defensive efficiency unit and the overall efficiency differential. The Spurs have been dealing with a multitude of injuries this season but are now starting to get healthy sans Kawhi Leonard. We expect a Hornets team to have a hard time getting back up tonight to play another A level team after last night's road loss. Charlotte is just 15-20-1 ATS since 2015 when playing without rest. Play on San Antonio. |
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11-25-17 | Loyola-Chicago -5.5 v. Kent State | Top | 75-60 | Win | 100 | 4 h 16 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Loyola Chicago -5.5 over Kent State, Saturday at 5:00 PM ET Loyola is dialed in right now having gone 6-0 to start the season with five of those wins coming by double digits. The Ramblers have a +14.4 point differential right now which is 51st in the nation. Loyola is getting it done on the offensive and defensive ends of the court as they are shooting over 55.5% (3rd best in NCAA) from the field and holding opponents to just 38.7% (46th best). Kent on the other hand is shooting 46% and allowing 44.2% to opponents. Loyola holds a significant edge when it comes to 3-point shooting over the Flashes with a 40.4% percentage compared to 28.7% (Kent 302nd in country). Last night Kent played Valparaiso who is rated lower than Loyola in our overall rankings yet the Ramblers are only favored here by a few points more than Valpo was last night and they won by 10-points. Loyola is on a 16-3 SU non conference winning streak and we like them to get a double-digit win here! Lay the points! |
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11-22-17 | Detroit v. St. Louis -11 | Top | 72-70 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* St Louis -11 over Detroit, Wednesday at 8:00 PM ET Defense and rebounding are the key here and St Louis has huge edges in both. Detroit is one of the worst defensive teams in the nation ranking 344th (out of 351) in defensive efficiency. They have already allowed 3 of their 4 opponents this year to top 100 points. Teams are shooting 53% vs Detroit overall and 43% from beyond the arc. Just a poor defense all around. This team is also a bad rebounding team. They rank below 250th in BOTH offensive and defensive rebounding. In their two losses, their only games vs teams with a pulse, they were -32 on the glass. Those games came against Seattle & Virginia Tech. Their two wins have come against Michigan Dearborn & Houston Baptist (in OT). They lost at home to Seattle 102-71 and on a neutral court to Va Tech 111-79. In an interesting early season twist, we have some direct comparisons to make as SLU has also played those two teams. The Billikens won both of those games beating a good Virginia Tech team 77-71 on a neutral court and whipping Seattle 62-46 here at Chaifetz Arena in St Louis. While we mentioned that Detroit was -32 on the boards in those two games, the Billikens were +21 on the glass vs those same teams. While neither of these teams is a great shooting team, we expect SLU to benefit from extra opportunities from offensive rebounds. They should also shoot better than their average here as they are at home and facing a very poor defense. St Louis runs away with this one. |
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11-21-17 | Samford +11 v. Valparaiso | Top | 67-88 | Loss | -125 | 6 h 11 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: #761 Samford +11.5 over @Valparaiso, 8PM ET - This is a very interesting line and the value clearly lies with Samford in this matchup. Let' start with the Bulldogs. They return 90% of their scoring from a season ago from a team that finished 20-16 overall. Conversely, the Crusaders lost 60% of their scoring and have 9 of 12 underclassmen on the roster. The comparable schedules for these two teams isn't even close as Valpo has played North Park, Trinity Christian College, Southern Illinois Edwardsville and Southeast Louisiana. They beat those four lower level teams handily. On the other hand, Samford is 1-3 on the year and the three losses came against Loyola Chicago, LSU and Arkansas who are a combined 10-0 this season. Samford was +10.5 at Arky, +8 at LSU and +7 at Loyola who is projected to finish 3 spots higher than Valparaiso this year in the MVC. Samford loves the role as the underdog as they covered all 4 games last year as a double-digit pooch. Grab the points! |
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11-17-17 | Knicks +8 v. Raptors | Top | 84-107 | Loss | -107 | 2 h 59 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON: New York Knicks (+8) over Toronto Raptors, 7:35PM ET - If you haven't noticed this Knicks team is much better than the past few editions and we like them as a dog here against the Raptors. Toronto is solid 3-game road trip with a pair of wins over Houston and New Orleans, face New York tonight and have Washington up next. Don't be surprised if the Raptors overlook Knicks here as they've beaten them 7 straight times. New York made some changes in the offseason and it's paying off. The Knicks have won 5 of their last seven games, and 7 of ten. Last season in two meetings on this floor the Raptors were favored by 7.5 and 10-points respectively. Tonight they are laying 8-points to the improved Knicks. Last year the Knicks finished the season with an overall offensive efficiency rating of 107.8 and a defensive efficiency rating of 111.6 (difference of -3.8). This year those numbers have improved to 110.2 (OEFF) and 108.7 (DEFF) for a difference of +1.5. So a better team is getting the same value here tonight. New York's improved field goal percentage defense will be the difference here. Grab the points! |
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11-15-17 | Magic +5 v. Blazers | Top | 94-99 | Push | 0 | 7 h 3 m | Show |
We like the Orlando Magic (+5) over the Portland Trailblazers, 10PM ET - These two teams have some similar season numbers in regards to efficiency ratings with the one exception being the Blazers advantage in defensive efficiency. But we temper those numbers considering the Blazers have played the 2nd easiest schedule in the NBA. Portland had the 24th worst defensive efficiency rating a year ago but are 3rd this year, which again is very misleading based on the schedule. Orlando is a top 10 team in terms of overall efficiency differentials and have played an 'average' schedule giving us a true indicator of where they stand. In their last five road games the Magic are 3-2 SU with two solid wins over Memphis and New Orleans. They lost most recently in Denver on the second night of a back to back and in Golden State. We like them to bounce back here against Portland who is 5-4 SU at home but only two of those wins came against teams with current winning records. The Blazers have a home point differential of just +2.4PPG while the Magic are 1 of just twelve teams in the league with a positive road differential (+1.9PPG). The number on this game is simply too high and we won't be surprised when Orlando wins outright. |
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11-14-17 | Raptors +6.5 v. Rockets | Top | 129-113 | Win | 100 | 6 h 19 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: Toronto Raptors (+6.5) over Houston Rockets, 8PM ET - We like the points here with a good Raptors team coming off a loss against a Rockets team laying an inflated number. First off, the Rockets have won 6 straight but the wins aren't that impressive (Knicks, Hawks, Jazz, Cavs, Grizzlies and Pacers) who are a combined 12 games under .500. Now they step up against a Raptors team that is every bit as talented and motivated off a loss. These two teams are very similar in terms of offensive efficiency but the Rockets surprisingly are better in defensive efficiency ratings. The Raptors were 11th in DEFF a season ago and will trend back to those numbers as the season goes on. Toronto was one of just six teams in the entire NBA a year ago to have a positive road point differential, so this veteran team is certainly capable of winning anywhere in the NBA. The Raptors are a contender in the East and are getting too many points here considering the Rockets were just minus -6.5 points against the Jazz and minus -5.5 points against the Cavs who are not playing as well as Toronto right now (similar in OEFF but drastic difference in DEFF). The Raptors were plus +2.5 points less than a month ago in San Antonio. Against the better teams in the league the Raptors have road results of: -4 points @ San Antonio, -5 points at Golden State, -1 point at Boston. Easy call here with the value and Toronto Raptors. |
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11-13-17 | Wolves -3.5 v. Jazz | Top | 109-98 | Win | 100 | 5 h 58 m | Show |
We will PLAY ON the Minnesota Timberwolves (-3.5) over the Utah Jazz. We feel this is a short enough number to lay on the road with the Wolves who are coming off two straight road losses and will look to bounce back here. Minnesota hasn't played great overall defense this year but are trending in the right direction. They held three straight foes to under 100 points before playing the fast paced Suns and high scoring Warriors. Tonight they face a Utah Jazz team really struggling with their shooting. The Jazz have shot just 43.1% on the year which is 27th in the NBA. In their last five games they've hit less than 40% of their field goal attempts and have averaged just 99PPG. What makes matters worse for the Jazz is that they recently lost Rudy Gobert to a knee injury which takes away one of the league's best defensive centers. Utah has lost 3 of their last four home games with the lone win coming their last time out against the Nets who are again one of the league's worst teams. Minnesota has won 3 of their last six road games (Pelicans, Heat and Thunder) and all three were over better teams than tonight's Jazz team. Based on trending efficiency numbers we like the Wolves to get a 10-point win here. |
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11-10-17 | Magic -3.5 v. Suns | Top | 128-112 | Win | 100 | 8 h 11 m | Show |
We will play on the Orlando Magic (-3.5) over the Phoenix Suns, 9PM ET - It seems strange to be laying points on the road with the Magic but it's absolutely warranted here. Orlando has some very good metrics this season that may surprise a lot of casual bettors. The Magic are 9th in overall efficiency differential at +3.6 in the NBA while the Suns are dead last at -9.7. Orlando is in the top half of the league in offensive efficiency ratings, compared to the Suns who are bottom 5. The Magic are a top 5 offensive efficiency team, Phoenix is in the bottom 3. You can see for yourself these two teams are further apart based on efficiency differentials than the actual pointspread is tonight. Orlando is already 3-2 SU on the road this season and the three wins have come over much better teams than the Suns tonight (Grizzlies, Pelicans and Cavaliers). Phoenix has lost 4 straight games, 3 of which were by double-digits and two were home games against the Nets and Heat. Orlando is one of the better shooting teams in the league at 49% while the Suns struggle to shoot at just 43% and that will be a big factor in tonight's outcome. The Magic have covered 5 of the last six meetings against the Suns. Lay the points with Orlando. |
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11-09-17 | Thunder v. Nuggets UNDER 216.5 | Top | 94-102 | Win | 100 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
ASA PLAY UNDER 216.5 Oklahoma City Thunder @ Denver Nuggets, 10:35PM ET. The oddsmakers are projecting these two teams to score more than the league average of 211.4PPG but the metrics say differently. In fact, our computer analytics suggest 209.6 points in this contest. OKC is below average in terms of offensive efficiency ratings at 1.053 points per possession while the Nuggets are the league average at 1.072PPP. On the defensive side of the ball the Thunder are the second best defensive efficiency team in the league allowing jus t .992PPP. The Nuggets give up 1.067PPP which is slightly worse than the league average of 1.057PPP. The Thunder allow the least amount of points in the paint this season while the Nuggets are 11th. Meaning, no easy buckets for opponents. Neither team plays especially fast so it's not like we have to worry about a track meet here either. Denver is coming off two of the leagues fastest paced teams in the league in Golden State and Brooklyn and the results of those games have driven this Total higher than it should be. OKC and their opponents have combined to score more than 217 just two times this season. Nuggets on 7-2 home under run, OKC under 4 straight road games. |
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11-06-17 | Heat +15.5 v. Warriors | Top | 80-97 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 37 m | Show |
PLAY ON: MIAMI HEAT - We will grab the points with the Miami Heat over the Golden State Warriors. The Heat are off a road win yesterday against the Clippers and will be playing without rest here, but the Warriors aren't in the best scheduling situation either. Golden State is off a 3-game road trip with their last game coming in the higher attitude of Denver AND they have a big TV game on deck versus the Wolves. Miami was 18-23 SU on the road last year and had the 10th best road differential in the league (tied with the Cavaliers) at minus -1.8PPG. Golden State had the best home point differential in the NBA a season ago at +15.9PPG but they are just 2-2 SU at home this year, 0-4 ATS. Miami can contend here because they defend the 3-point line (4th in league a year ago) as good as anyone in the NBA. Last season the Warriors won their home game against the Heat by 12 and Miami beat them in South Beach. The Heat were 10-4 ATS last year as a road dog of 7+ points. Grab the points with Miami. |
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10-30-17 | Warriors -5 v. Clippers | Top | 141-113 | Win | 100 | 6 h 21 m | Show |
PLAY ON: GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS (-) over LA Clippers, 10:30 PM ET - We will lay the points with the Golden State Warriors over the LA Clippers. I like the Clippers to be better than most experts are predicting but they aren't one of the best teams in the NBA either. Sure, they've gotten off to a 4-1 SU start without Chris Paul but they've also played Phoenix and the Lakers, two of the worst teams a year ago. The Warriors are just 4-3 SU on the season and coming off a home loss to the Pistons. Golden State has faced four playoff teams from a year ago and a much improved Pelicans team. Golden State is 15-3 SU off a loss their last eighteen games and are laying a marginal number here on the road considering their road point differential from a year ago was +7.4PPG (best in NBA). Golden State was 31-10 SU away in the regular season a year ago and is on a 38-11 SU streak as a road chalk. The Clippers aren't home dogs very often, just 7 times last year, but they were just 2-5 SU, 3-4ATS in that role. The clincher here is the dominance of the Warriors over the Clippers in recent years with a 10-0 SU record, which includes 4-0 last year with all 4 wins coming by double digits. The two games played on this court were 13 and 17 point margins in favor of Golden State. Lay the points on the road with GST. |
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10-25-17 | Jazz v. Suns UNDER 204 | Top | 88-97 | Win | 100 | 5 h 15 m | Show |
ASA PLAY UNDER 204 Utah Jazz @ Phoenix Suns, 10PM ET - Wait what, you're playing Under in a game with a team (Phoenix) that allows 125PPG? Yes, the Suns are the worst defensive efficiency team in the NBA and are giving up 1.184 points per possession BUT they've also played the 7th, 8th and 9th highest scoring teams in the NBA this season. Now they face a Jazz team averaging just 95.8PPG which is the second lowest number in the league. Phoenix made a coaching change and it looks like new head coach Jay Triano is holding his young players to a much higher standard. The Suns were trying to play as fast as they possible could and in the process they were playing sloppy, bad basketball. In their first two games they attempted 89 and 92 field goal attempts but in their most recent game they attempted just 77 field goals. Utah is the SLOWEST paced team in the NBA in terms of pace of play and a top 10 team in defensive efficiency ratings allowing just 1.022 points per possession. The Under has cashed in 18 of the last 26 meetings overall and 4 of the last five in Phoenix which have averaged just 189.2PPG. Bet UNDER! |
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10-20-17 | Celtics +2.5 v. 76ers | Top | 102-92 | Win | 100 | 5 h 46 m | Show |
Play on: Boston Celtics (+2) over @ Philadelphia 76ers, 7PM ET - The Celtics clearly suffered a huge blow on the opening night of the season when they lost Gordon Hayward and then were beaten by the Cavaliers. They returned home to face the up-and-coming Bucks at home and lost outright as a small chalk. Philly meanwhile lost at Washington and have core of young exciting talent on the roster. But has the 76ers roster improved that much they should be favored over the team that had the best overall record in the East last year? Granted, the Celtics have a new roster and lost Hayward, but Philly was a favorite just TWO TIMES all last season. In fact, the 76ers have been instilled as a chalk by the oddsmakers just 6 times in the past two full seasons! Boston is off two straight losses (24-13 65% SU off a 'L' last year) to start the season (versus playoff teams) and now step way down in talent here. The 76ers don't have anyone that can guard Kyrie Irving here yet Boston has Horford to defend Embiid. Easy bet on Boston. |
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06-12-17 | Cavs v. Warriors -8 | Top | 120-129 | Win | 100 | 7 h 49 m | Show |
We are going to play on the Golden State Warriors minus the points over the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight in Game 5. Before the series started we predicted a Warriors sweep or win in 5 games and we'll stick with that thought process. The first two games were dominated by the Warriors at home with a total differential of plus + 41 points. Just because the Cavs won the last game in this series doesn't mean they've suddenly turned their 'defensive ship' around and can stop the Warriors here. GST had a +15.0 point differential at home during the regular season and are averaging +17.9PPG at home in the playoffs. Cleveland is allowing 1.11 points per possession in the Playoffs after allowing 1.104PPP during the regular season. In case you don't remember this from previous posts, that defensive efficiency rating of 1.104PPP ranked them in the bottom third of the NBA this season. I'm not going to be fooled by the Cavs win in the previous game as the stars aligned perfectly for them and they made shots (at home) and benefitted from 22 free throw attempts in the first quarter. FYI - the league record for most attempts in a quarter in NBA HISTORY is 32. Back at home the Warriors will shoot better as they averaged 50% shooting on their home court and allowed opponents to hit just 43%. Golden State perfect 7-0 SU at home off a loss this year and bounce back here to end the series. |
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06-09-17 | Warriors v. Cavs UNDER 229 | Top | 116-137 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 53 m | Show |
We will play UNDER 228.5 in the Golden State Warriors @ Cleveland Cavaliers Game 4 Friday. Looking closely at Game 3 we see some indicators that suggest a lower scoring game even though that game went over the number. Combined in Game 3 the two teams attempted 173 field goals which is just 3 more than the league average of 170. The regular season average for total points scored in games was 211. Granted, these two teams make a lot of 3's which alters the baseline statistics but even with 28 made 3-pointers in the last game it still barely when over the number. The oddsmakers have been forced to adjust their number even higher for Game 4 which gives us more value with an UNDER wager. The Warrior games away from home this full season averaged 219PPG while the Cavalier home games averaged 218PPG. The math says under along with value. |
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06-07-17 | Warriors v. Cavs +4 | Top | 118-113 | Loss | -115 | 30 h 21 m | Show |
We will play the Cleveland Cavaliers (+4) at home over Golden State in Game 3 Wednesday, 8PM ET. The Warriors were obviously very good to us in the first two games of this series and we do have Golden State as our series bet but if there is one game the Cavs will win it's this one. Here's what we saw in our break down of Game 2. As the game wore on the Cavs started grabbing and holding the Warriors more and more, especially Steph Curry, and the officials swallowed their whistles. Last year, the Cavs big turning point is the series was when Dellavedova employed his 'mugging' mentality against Curry and held him to 22PPG in the Finals. On Wednesday night we expect Curry to essentially get assaulted by Cleveland and doubt the officials are going to call much. When you are watching the game pay close attention to the Warrior players OFF the ball and you'll see what I'm talking about. Yes, the Warriors were a fantastic road team this year with a 37-10 SU record, but the Cavs were 36-11 SU at home and are off two humiliating losses. Last year in a similar setting the Cavs won Game 3 at home by 30 as a -1.5 point favorite. Based on the season long numbers the Cavs shouldn't be this big of an underdog here given these circumstances. In the past two season's the Cavs have produced a 25-5 SU (83%) record when playing at home and off a loss in their previous game. Cleveland has been the most efficient offense in the playoffs at home this season by averaging 1.213 points per possession and they have a home differential of +8.3PPG. LeBron will get every call imaginable tonight and the Cavs steal a game in the series. |
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06-04-17 | Cavs v. Warriors -8.5 | Top | 113-132 | Win | 100 | 34 h 32 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: Golden State Warriors (-8.5) over Cleveland Cavaliers, Game 2 Sun, 8 ET - We will play ON the Golden State Warriors again minus the points over the Cleveland Cavaliers in Game 2. This is going to sound eerily like our first writeup but our base analysis remains the same. Offensively the Warriors were the #1 ranked regular season offensive efficiency team in the league averaging 1.156 points per possession. In the playoffs, they have improved that number to 1.181PPP and that uptick comes after playing the Spurs and Jazz who were 1st and 3rd in defensive efficiency ratings. Now the Warriors face a Cleveland team that was 21st in DEFF this regular season and have been slightly better in the post-season allowing 1.083PPP, which would still have ranked them 11th in the regular season. Don't forget the slight post-season improvement came against a Raptor and Celtics team missing their All-Star points guards in Lowry and Thomas. Defensively there is no comparison between these two teams, which was very apparent in Game 1, as the Warriors had the 2nd best defensive efficiency rating in the NBA during the regular season, allowing just 1.04 points per possession and they've bettered that number in the playoffs allowing just 1.018PPP. The Cavs defense was thoroughly exposed in Game 1 and they can’t just ‘flip a switch’ and be great defensively in the playoffs. It just doesn’t work that way. Also, don't be fooled into thinking the Cavs are a great bet here getting points as they were just 5-1 1 as a dog this season. When coming off a loss this year the Cavs are also just a 50/50 proposition with an 8-8 SU record. Looking at the shot chart from Game 1 we see the outcome of that game could have been much worse as the Warriors missed 20-point point-blank shots in the lane and 30 overall for the game. When LeBron and the Cavs organization assembled this roster, they should have considered some defensive minded players. In last year’s Finals the Warriors won Game 1 big then came back and blew the Cavs out by 33 in Game 2. With an average point differential of plus +16.5PPG at home this year we like the Warriors chances to get another double digit win in Game 2. Lay the points. |
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06-01-17 | Cavs v. Warriors OVER 225.5 | Top | 91-113 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 45 m | Show |
You've already read everything possible on this series and have likely formed your own opinion on the series but we'll focus on Game 1 and the Total here. We will play OVER the Total here. At first glance the number on this game seems high but in reality it's not based on the regular season meeting here which had a Total of 227.5. That game was a blowout for the Warriors 126-91 which obviously stayed below the number. Golden State is coming off a series with the #1 ranked defensive efficiency team in the NBA, San Antonio, in which they scored 113, 136, 120 and 129 points. They scored 115 or more points in two of four games against Utah who was 3rd in the NBA in DEFF. Now the Warriors face a Cleveland team that was 21st in the NBA in defensive efficiency ratings allowing 1.104 points per possession. The Cavs have also put up some monster numbers offensively in the post season, including an offensive efficiency rating of 122.6 which is #1 in the playoffs. The Cavs have put up 106 or more points in every post season game and scored 130 plus in two of their last four games. Golden State is playing faster in the post-season than they did in the regular season. Cleveland is playing slightly slower in the playoffs than they did in the regular season, but again, because of their efficiency ratings they are scoring 5+ points per game more. These two teams are going to score points here and it will be enough to top the Total set on Game 1. |
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05-25-17 | Cavs v. Celtics UNDER 216 | Top | 135-102 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
We have been a steady OVER player in the playoffs and it’s paid off handsomely thus far, but tonight the numbers dictate an UNDER wager on this game. It was painfully evident the Celtics want to slow the tempo as much as possible as they feel it’s the best way to beat Cleveland. It obviously worked for most of three quarters before Kyrie went insane and lifted the Cavs to a win. These two teams combined attempted just 153 field goal attempts which is WAY below the league average of 170. Cleveland shot a ridiculous 59.5% (again due to Kyrie going 15 of 22) which helped them get to 112 points. It’s unlikely that is going to happen again based on Cleveland’s season shooting percentage of 47.4%, and Boston’s FG% defense that allowed 45.3% on the year. In Boston’s case, we would expect similar numbers as Game 4 as they shot just below their season averages, but again are without their leading scorer in Isaiah Thomas. The tempo is the key here and it looks like Boston has committed to slowing the pace as much as possible. The UNDER is now 7-1 the last eight meetings between these two teams in Beantown. We’re betting UNDER! |
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05-23-17 | Celtics v. Cavs OVER 215 | Top | 99-112 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 41 m | Show |
ASA OVER 215 Boston @ Cleveland, 8:35PM ET Tuesday - We will play OVER in the Boston @ Cleveland Game 4 Tuesday. The Totals on the first two games of this series were 218.5 and 219 then the number dropped to 214 for Game 3 with the news that Isaiah Thomas was out for Boston. The Celtics have averaged 106PPG in the playoffs and have been very efficient averaging 1.115 points per possession. The Cleveland Cavaliers, who have simply been on fire offensively in the playoffs, are averaging 1.214 points per possession (tops in the playoffs) and 116.3PPG. In 7 of their eleven playoff games they’ve scored 115 or more points and if they get to that number today this game goes OVER easily. In Game #3 the Cavs scored 108 points but only took 70 shots to get there and LeBron James had an abnormally low scoring game of just 11-points. Clearly James is going to put up points here as he's averaging over 32PPG in the post season. Boston and opponents averaged 210 total points per game on the road this year and Cav home games averaged 218. Our Math Model projects 220 total points being scored here. |
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05-21-17 | Celtics v. Cavs OVER 215 | Top | 111-108 | Win | 100 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
We will play OVER in the Boston @ Cleveland Game 3 Sunday. The Totals on the first two games of this series were 218.5 and 219 but this number has dropped to the 214 range as of this posting. The drop is due to the Celtics Isaiah Thomas being out for the playoffs with a hip injury. Granted, Thomas is Boston’s leading scorer but in this game, we feel if the Celtics can get to 100 to 105 points this game goes over. The Celtics have averaged 106PPG in the playoffs and have been very efficient averaging 1.115 points per possession. On the other bench is the Cleveland Cavaliers who have simply been on fire offensively in the playoffs. The Cavs are averaging 1.214 points per possession (tops in the playoffs) and 116.3PPG. In 7 of their ten playoff games they’ve scored 115 or more points and if they get to that number today this game goes OVER. Boston and opponents averaged 210 total points per game on the road this year and Cav home games averaged 218. Boston is on a 7-2 OVER streak when coming off a loss while Cleveland is 11-4 OVER their last fifteen off a win. The wager to make here is OVER! |
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05-20-17 | Warriors v. Spurs UNDER 214 | Top | 120-108 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
UNDER 214 in the Golden State Warriors @ San Antonio Spurs Game 3 Saturday, 9PM ET. You’re not going to like this bet but it’s the right one to make. Public money is currently pouring in on the 'over' for this contest, but despite that, the line on the game has dipped down a little. That's an indication the smart players are on the 'under' and we couldn't agree more. These two teams were 1st and 2nd in the regular season in defensive efficiency ratings as both allowed 1.05 points per possession. Not surprising, they were also the top two in the league in effective field goal percentage defense, two of just four teams in the entire league to allow less than 50% eFG%. In the opener, these two teams attempted just 165 total field goals which is more than 5 less than the league average and should have produced less than 211 (league average) total points but didn’t. In Game 2 these same two teams combined for 189 FG attempts but it was a blowout from the start and the Warriors shot it at a ridiculous rate. Golden State was 50 of 89 from the field overall or 56.2% and made 18 of 37 3’s, both numbers substantially higher than their season averages. The Spurs 100 FG attempts were largely attributed to the fact they were getting blown out early and had to play catch up. When these two teams have met in San Antonio in the past the UNDER has cashed 6 of the last seven meetings. Plug your nose and bet under! |
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05-19-17 | Cavs -5 v. Celtics | Top | 130-86 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
Play ON the Cleveland Cavaliers (-5) over the Boston Celtics, Fri 8:30PM ET. Yes, we know we are laying a premium price here based on the regular season meetings and earlier rounds of this playoffs, but we feel it's warranted. During the regular season the Cavs won 3 of four meetings and the last meeting was a Cleveland win by 23 on this same court. The Cavs unveiled some different defensive strategies against Thomas, and held Boston to just 91 points. In Game 1 the Cavaliers dominated the Celtics and the final score was misleading as Cleveland lead by as many as 28-points in the game. What stands out is how “poorly” the Cavs shot from beyond the arc as they hit “just” 38.8% from 3. In the post season, they are shooting just under 43% from the 3-point line. Boston had decent numbers in Game 1 and were still blown out by this Cavs team that is on a mission. Cleveland is 9-0 in the post season with an average point differential of +9.6PPG which is second only to Golden State's +17-point differential in the Playoffs. The Cavs playoff ROAD point differential or average margin of victory is 9.3PPG. If there was a game Boston was going to win this series it’s this one but we’re not about to go against this Cleveland team right now. |
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05-17-17 | Cavs -4 v. Celtics | Top | 117-104 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
We will play ON the Cleveland Cavaliers in Game 1 over the Boston Celtics, Weds 7:30PM ET. Yes, we know we are laying a premium price here based on the regular season meetings and earlier rounds of this playoffs, but we feel it's warranted. Boston is coming off that grueling 7-game series with Washington and have just 1-day rest. Cleveland meanwhile has been off since May 7th and comes into this game fresh. During the regular season the Cavs won 3 of four meetings and the most recent meeting was a Cleveland win by 23 on this same court. I went back and watched that game and what stood out to me, is how the Cavs unveiled some different defensive strategies against Thomas, and how they held Boston to just 91 points. There are some bad matchups in this game for the Celtics and the Cavs have had a ton of time to figure out the best way to exploit those advantages. Cleveland is 8-0 in the post season with an average point differential of +9.6PPG which is second only to Golden State's +14.9 point differential in the Playoffs. The Cavs playoff ROAD point differential or average margin of victory is 9.3PPG. Given the circumstances we will lay the points with Cleveland on the road here. We will play OVER in the Cleveland Cavaliers versus the Boston Celtics, Weds 7:30PM ET. |
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05-16-17 | Spurs v. Warriors UNDER 210 | Top | 100-136 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 5 m | Show |
We will play UNDER 210 in the San Antonio Spurs @ Golden State Warriors Game 2 Tuesday, 9PM ET. Public money is currently pouring in on the 'over' for this contest, but despite that, the line on the game has dipped down a little. That's an indication the smart players are on the 'under' and we couldn't agree more. In Game 1 the Spurs jumped all over the Warriors and seemed to be cruising to an easy victory. Then Kawhi Leonard was injured and it looked like the Alamo all over again for San Antonio. In Game 1 the Spurs had put up 76 points in 28 minutes with Leonard in the game. After he was hurt the Spurs offense really struggled and they managed just 35 points in 20 minutes without him. And let's not forget they don't have Tony Parker here either. These two teams were 1st and 2nd in the regular season in defensive efficiency ratings as both allowed 1.05 points per possession. Not surprising, they were also the top two in the league in effective field goal percentage defense, two of just four teams in the entire league to allow less than 50% eFG%. In the opener these two teams attempted just 165 total field goals which is more than 5 less than the league average. San Antonio knows that to have any chance at winning this game they HAVE to slow the tempo and might try to play 'Big Ball' with Gasol and Aldridge on the floor at the same time. The two most recent regular season meetings between these two powerhouses ended with 208 and 192 total points which would obviously cash tonight. Bet UNDER here! |
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05-15-17 | Wizards v. Celtics OVER 210.5 | Top | 105-115 | Win | 100 | 6 h 45 m | Show |
OVER 211 in the Washington Wizards at Boston Celtics, Game 7 Monday 8PM ET. We hit our last OVER bet in this series in Game 5 and will come right back with the same wager here. These two teams want to play fast and push the tempo on every possession. The Wiz were 11th in the NBA in pace of play while the Celts were 13th during the regular season. Both of these teams were top nine in the NBA during the regular season in offensive efficiency ratings with each team scoring 1.112 points per possession. But during the playoffs, Boston has been even more efficient averaging 1.123PPP while Washington is slightly less at 1.108PPP. On the other end of the court, the Wizards were 20th in the league in defensive efficiency allowing 1.094PPP which is nearly identical to what they are allowing in the post season. Boston was 13th in the league in DEFF during the regular season but in the post-season they are giving up 1.091PPP which would rank them 18th in the regular season. In summary, both teams will plays fast, score points and allow them and this total is set right around league average. The first two games of the series in Boston these two teams finished with 234 and 248 total points. Of course Game 2 was an overtime affair but at the end of the 4th quarter these two teams had totaled 228 points. In Game 5 these two teams totaled 224 total points which could have been higher had it been a closer game throughout. Washington's defense is atrocious on the road all season long and there is no reason to expect a dramatic improvement tonight. Boston has shot over 51% in the three home games of this rivalry and should 'get buckets' again tonight. Bet OVER! |
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05-14-17 | Spurs v. Warriors -9.5 | Top | 111-113 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 14 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Golden State -9.5 over San Antonio, Sunday at 4:30 PM ET We like a focused, rested and motivated Warriors team to get a big home win to open this series. Let's face it the Warriors haven't been tested but will be here so we'll get a max effort. Golden State had a home average point differential of +15.9PPG at home this year which was the best number in the NBA. In the playoffs at home that differential is +16PPG. They have won 7 of their 8 playoff games thus far by at least 10 points. Granted, the Spurs are better than the teams they've faced but San Antonio is coming off two very hard fought series against Memphis and Houston and are without Parker and a less than 100% Leonard. Golden State on the other hand is rested and ready to make a statement in game 1. The regular season meetings really don't tell us much as both teams rested players but the current situation clearly favors Golden State. Surprisingly, since the start of the 2015 season, 7 of the 9 meetings between these 2 have been decided by at least 10 points. We call for Golden State to keep that trend alive today. This line may seem high but is it? Just a few days ago San Antonio was an 8.5 point underdog @ Houston in Game 6. Now laying just one point more with the Warriors in a much better situation is hardly too many points. Lay in in Sunday with Golden State. |
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05-12-17 | Celtics v. Wizards OVER 216 | Top | 91-92 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
Play OVER 216 in the Boston Celtics @ Washington Wizards, Game 6 Friday 8PM ET. These two teams want to play fast which is great for OVER bettors and we don’t see these two teams slowing down tonight. The Wiz were 11th in the NBA in pace of play while the Celts were 13th. Both teams were top nine in the NBA during the regular season in offensive efficiency ratings with each team scoring 1.112 points per possession. But during the playoffs both teams are even more efficient averaging 1.123PPP. On the other end of the court, the Wizards were 20th in the league in defensive efficiency allowing 1.094PPP which is nearly identical to what they are allowing in the post season. Boston was 13th in the league in DEFF during the regular season but in the post-season they are giving up 1.104PPP which would rank them 21st in the regular season. In summary, both teams will play fast, score points and allow them and this total is set just a few points higher than the league average. Four of the five games in this series have ended with more than 215 total points and the most recent meeting had 178 FG attempts (league average 170) which resulted in 224 total points. Of course, Game 2 was an overtime affair but at the end of the 4th quarter these two teams had totaled 228 points. The Celtics best offensive weapon is Isaiah Thomas who averaged 28.9PPG on the season and for him to be most effective the Celtics have to play faster and with space so he can penetrate to score. In other words, Boston will not change their game strategy on the road even though Washington’s best asset offensively is playing fast too. Washington’s John Wall has had a fantastic playoff thus far and he’ll dictate a faster pace for the Wiz at home tonight in this elimination game. |
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05-11-17 | Spurs v. Rockets OVER 213.5 | Top | 114-75 | Loss | -107 | 20 h 19 m | Show |
Play OVER 213.5 San Antonio Spurs @ Houston Rockets, 8:35PM ET Thursday – Houston is going to dictate tempo here at home and force the Spurs into a faster paced game. Houston was the second fastest paced team in the league at home which resulted in an average of 117PPG, also 2nd highest in the NBA. The Spurs preferred to play slow on the road but because they are so efficient (4th best on the road) they still managed to average 105PPG away from home. In three of the five games of this series, one of the two teams has scored 120+ and there is no reason to expect a change in that trend in Game 6. The pace of play numbers support an OVER bet here too as these two teams have gone from 171 field goal attempts in Games 1 & 2 to 174 in Game 3, 184 in Game 4 and 189 in Game 5 (granted OT). All of those games are more than the regular season league average of 170 and let’s not forget the total points scored per game during the season is 211. The case being here is we get 170 field goal attempts we should see more than 211 total points as these two teams are 3rd (Houston) and 9th (Spurs) in effective FG% shooting. Houston is 1st in the league in 3-pointers attempted per game and the Spurs are the best 3-point shooting team in the NBA. Again, the point we’re making is that we don’t necessarily need a fast-paced game to win an OVER bet when the number on this game is barely higher than league average. The OVER has won in 5 of the last six meetings. BET OVER! |
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05-10-17 | Wizards v. Celtics OVER 215 | Top | 101-123 | Win | 100 | 27 h 48 m | Show |
Play OVER 215 in the Washington Wizards at Boston Celtics, Game 5 Wednesday 8PM ET. These two teams want to play fast which is fine with us as we'll take advantage with an OVER wager here. The Wiz were 11th in the NBA in pace of play while the Celts were 13th. Both of these teams were top nine in the NBA during the regular season in offensive efficiency ratings with each team scoring 1.112 points per possession. But during the playoffs both teams are even more efficient averaging 1.123PPP. On the other end of the court, the Wizards were 20th in the league in defensive efficiency allowing 1.094PPP which is nearly identical to what they are allowing in the post season. Boston was 13th in the league in DEFF during the regular season but in the post-season they are giving up 1.104PPP which would rank them 21st in the regular season. In summary, both teams will plays fast, score points and allow them and this total is set just a few points higher than the league average. Three of the four games in this series have ended with more than 215 total points with the first two games of the series in Boston finishing with 234 and 248 total points. Of course Game 2 was an overtime affair but at the end of the 4th quarter these two teams had totaled 228 points. The Celtics best offensive weapon is Isaiah Thomas who averaged 28.9PPG on the season and scored 33 and 53 in the two games of this series in Boston. In the two games in Washington he managed just 13 and 19 points respectively. He'll get back on track here and help Boston put up points in Game 5. Washington and John Wall are going to get there share too. Easy call with OVER THE TOTAL! |
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05-09-17 | Rockets v. Spurs OVER 213.5 | Top | 107-110 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
Play OVER Houston Rockets @ San Antonio Spurs, 8:35PM ET Tuesday - We are going contrarian here and not ‘zagging’ when most bettors will probably side with the UNDER here, but not us. In three of the four games of this series, one of the two teams has scored 120+ and there is no reason to expect a change in that trend in Game 5. The pace of play numbers support an OVER bet here too as these two teams have gone from 171 field goal attempts in Games 1 & 2 to 174 in Game 3 and 184 in Game 4. All of those games are more than the regular season league average of 170 and let’s not forget the total points scored per game during the season is 211. The case being here is we get 170 field goal attempts we should see more than 211 total points as these two teams are 3rd (Houston) and 9th (Spurs) in effective FG% shooting. Houston is 1st in the league in 3-pointers attempted per game and the Spurs are the best 3-point shooting team in the NBA. Again, the point we’re making is that we don’t necessarily need a fast paced game to win an OVER bet when the number on this game is barely higher than league average. The OVER has won in 6 of the last eight meetings between these two teams on this court. BET OVER! |
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05-08-17 | Warriors v. Jazz OVER 206 | Top | 121-95 | Win | 100 | 5 h 12 m | Show |
We play OVER 206 in the Golden State Warriors @ Utah Jazz, 8PM ET Monday. Game 2 of this series went over rather easily and we predict a similar flow and output in Game 4 tonight. The results of Game 3 has provided us with value here on an over wager as these two teams produced just 193 points in the last meeting. They attempted 161 shots which is lower than the league average of 170 but let's not forget this number is essentially 3 baskets lower than the league average for total points scored per game (211). In Game 3 we had two abnormally bad shooting nights for both Steph Curry (6 of 20) and Klay Thompson (1 of 9) which clearly helped that game from being higher scoring. Those two combined were just 3 of 14 from beyond the arc which is unheard of. As a team the Warriors shot just 44% which is below their season average of 47.8% that they shoot on the road this year. The Warriors made just 9 of their 30 (30%) 3-point attempts too which is also lower than their season average of 35.8% away from home. As far as the Jazz are concerned they also had a poor shooting night as they were just 30 of 77 from the field or 39% which is DRASTICALLY lower than their season average of 46.8% at home. They also shot 31.8% from 3 which is lower than the 38.4% they shot all year long on their home court. This series has a strong under trend but we'll play contrarian and bet OVER here! **ASA NBA PICKS OVERALL 18-7 RUN, 11-4 L14 AND CURRENT 10-2 O/U STREAK! Get a long term package today and SAVE!** |
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05-07-17 | Cavs v. Raptors UNDER 213 | Top | 109-102 | Win | 100 | 4 h 41 m | Show |
UNDER 212 in the Cleveland Cavaliers at Toronto Raptors game, 3:30Pm ET. The pace of play numbers has dropped in every game of this series and we expect that trend to continue. In the opener, these two teams finished with 174 field goal attempts, Game 2 was 165 and then 163 in Game 3. Remember, the league average for FG attempts in a game is 170 and the league average for points scored per game in the regular season was 211. In other words, this game has a ‘average’ point total (212) but the teams have played slower than league average in two of the three games. The main reason two of the three games have gone over the total is due to the Cavs shooting success as they hit over 54 percent overall and from beyond the arc. What’s surprising about that is the fact the Raptors had the 8th best FG% defense in the NBA this year and were 11th in defensive efficiency ratings. Also, the Cavs have shot dramatically better in the last two games of this series than their overall season averages and we can’t expect that success to continue. When these two have squared off recently in Toronto they have totaled less than today’s number in 4 of the last five meetings. Bet UNDER here. |
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05-05-17 | Spurs v. Rockets -5 | Top | 103-92 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
ASA play on the Houston Rockets (-5) over San Antonio Spurs, Game 3 Friday, 9:30PM ET. We successfully played on the Spurs in Game 2 but will flip side here with a wager on the Rockets at home. Houston played well for three quarters in the previous meeting and entered the 4th quarter down just 5-points. But unfortunately for them, the Spurs outscored them 33-13 in the 4th. San Antonio was in a must win situation at home and off and embarrassing loss so it was expected they play well in Game 2. The Spurs shot nearly 55% from the field but we doubt they can repeat that performance on the road tonight. In their 3 road games against an average Memphis team, they averaged 45% shooting from the field and went 1-2 SU. Now they travel to Houston to face a Rockets team off a poor overall showing where James Harden managed just 13-points. The Rockets have won 10 of their last twelve home games and were a perfect 3-0 SU against the Thunder in the opening round. Houston was 30-11 SU at home this year with the second best average home differential of +8.9PPG and they won 7 of nine at home when off a SU loss. Tony Parker of the Spurs was playing EXTREMELY well in the post-season and his loss will affect the team’s regular rotation. Houston gets a double-digit win here. Lay it! |
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05-04-17 | Celtics v. Wizards -5 | Top | 89-116 | Win | 100 | 27 h 43 m | Show |
Play on Washington Wizards (-5) over Boston Celtics, 7PM ET - The Wiz are obviously down 0-2 in the series and backed into a corner here. Washington has played really well in stretches against the Celtics in the first two games, but unfortunately for them they couldn't sustain it for four quarters. Now back at home, where they were 30-11 SU with an average point differential of +4.9PPG, they'll get the added energy from their home crowd to finish quarters. The home team has won and covered all six meeting this season between these two teams and there's no reason to think that will change here. Not to mention, the Wizard are 17-4 SU, 12-9 ATS this season when playing at home off a loss. Boston has shot the lights out the first two games of this series by making over 51% of their field goal attempts and a combined 32 three-pointers. On the season the C's have averaged 45% shooting when playing on the road so don't expect them to continue on their torrid shooting streak in Washington. The value on this game is not what it should be and we know we are laying a premium price but it's warranted here in this situation. Take the Wizard minus the points. |
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05-02-17 | Jazz v. Warriors -13 | Top | 94-106 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
ASA play on the Golden State Warriors (-13) over the Utah Jazz. At first glance this seems like a daunting number for a second-round playoff game but it’s not. The Warriors are rested, dialed in and on a mission. The Jazz should let down here after a HUGE emotional road win over the Clippers. Golden State is 19-7 SU against top 10 teams in the NBA this season. Utah in that same comparison is just 14-19 SU against that level of competition this season. Granted, that’s straight up and not against the spread but it’s also a solid indicator of how these teams do against the league’s best teams. The Warriors were 36-5 SU at home this year with a ridiculous average point differential of plus +15.9PPG. They opened the playoffs with a 12-point and 29-point home wins over the Blazers. In the two regular season meetings between these two teams on this court the Warriors won the first meeting by 30-points. The second meeting was one of the last games of the season and the Warriors rested players in a throw away game, which resulted in a Jazz 6-point win. When you talk about the Jazz the first thing mentioned is defense. Utah had the 3rd best defensive efficiency in the NBA allowing just 1.053 points per possession. The problem is that Golden State is better in that same category allowing just 1.040PPP. Offensively, there is not comparison as the Warriors rank 1st in offensive efficiency averaging 1.156PPP while the Jazz are 13th at 1.096PPP. Golden State has covered 6 of the last seven at home against the Jazz and Game #1 is going to be a blowout! |
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05-02-17 | Wizards v. Celtics UNDER 218 | Top | 119-129 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 44 m | Show |
ASA play on UNDER 218 Washington Wizards @ Boston Celtics, 8PM ET - There are several indicators here that tells us to bet the 'under' and we'll trust the process. For those of you that have followed us for any amount of time you know we are 'law of averages' guys and focus on the 'norm' not the moment. In Game #1 of this series the Wizards shot over 50% overall and made 10 of 23 3's for 43.5%. Those numbers are WELL above their season averages of 47.4% and 36.9%. The same can be said for Boston. The Celtics shot over 51% overall from the field in Game #1 and made 19 of 39 3-pointers for 48.7%. Boston was 16th in the NBA in overall FG% by shooting 45.5% for the year. From beyond the arc, the C's shot just 35.9% which was 14th in the league and they averaged 12 made 3's per game. Another indicator that the first game of this series was abnormally high scoring was their pace of play. Combined they attempted 177 field goals which is only 7 more than the league average. When we put the numbers through our Math Model it suggests the total on this game should be 214, which was what Game #1 opened at, and is where this number should be set. With the vast majority of the public betting 'over' right now we'll be contrarian and bet UNDER! |
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05-01-17 | Raptors v. Cavs -6.5 | Top | 105-116 | Win | 100 | 4 h 14 m | Show |
ASA Play on: Cleveland Cavaliers (-6.5) over Toronto Raptors, 7PM ET - I'm not going to lie, this wager for us has been brewing since October 28th when these two teams met in Toronto and we bet the Raptors +2.5 points at home over the Cavs. Going into that game, the Raptors had all summer to stew after losing to the Cavs in the playoffs last year, and looked like a perfect opportunity to wager on the Raps as a home dog. But Cleveland won by 3-points and then proceeded to win the next two regular season meetings, before losing at the end of the season in a meaningless game at home (evidence it was meaningless as the Raptors were favored by 3 points on the road). Now the Cavs are laying a reasonable number at home considering the Raptors were just a 2-point dog in Milwaukee who is far worse than Cleveland. The Cavaliers were tied with the Spurs during the regular season with the 4th best point differential in the NBA at home of +8.1PPG. They are 75-19 SU at home the past two seasons and have a 15-10 ATS record at home in the playoffs the last two years. Since 2013 the Raptors have a playoff record of 12-24-1 ATS (33.3%) which is the second worst percentage in the NBA over that span of time. The mental aspect of this game clearly favors the Cavaliers and we are betting this game plays out much like last year's playoff home games for the Cavs when they beat Toronto on this court by 31, 19 and 38 points. When we 'tweak' a couple important variables within our math model it suggests a double digit win by Cleveland. Lay it! |
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04-30-17 | Wizards v. Celtics OVER 216 | Top | 111-123 | Win | 100 | 3 h 41 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 216 - Washington @ Boston, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET These were two of the top 8 scoring offenses this season with Boston ranking 8th and Washington 5th. The Wiz averaged 107 PPG in their opening round series vs Atlanta yet only shot 45% from the field and 31% from deep in those 6 games. Those numbers are far below their regular season averages of 47.5% and 37% so the fact is, despite scoring at a high rate, they didn’t shoot the ball all that well. On the defensive end they allowed a Hawks team that averaged 103 PPG during the regular season to average 106 PPG in the series. Atlanta didn’t shoot the ball well either hitting 45% overall and only 30% from beyond the arc. So neither team shot very well for the series yet they still averaged 213 PPG. Boston’s offense was definitely off kilter their first 2 games, both losses, vs Chicago. However, once they settled in, the Celts put up 104 or more in each of their last 4 games vs the Bulls. Chicago’s offense was putrid in those 4 games but let’s not forget the Bulls ranked near the bottom of the NBA this season in scoring and shooting percentage. Boston will not be able to slow down the Wizards nearly as easily as they did the Bulls. These two met four times this season and the oddsmakers set 3 of those 4 totals higher than this current number of 216. The lowest output of those four meetings was 211 and they averaged 220 points in those four games. The two teams combined to shoot 46% in those four games so the fact is they put up a lot of points, yet didn’t shoot light’s out. This one goes OVER the total. |
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04-28-17 | Celtics v. Bulls UNDER 204 | Top | 105-83 | Win | 100 | 4 h 19 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 204 - Boston @ Chicago, Friday at 8:05 PM ET Our computer says under along with several other indicators including public money on ‘over’ but the line has dipped. In the two meetings in Chicago the total points scored has ended up being 191 and 199. There has been a poor shooting performance by one of the two teams in nearly every game of this series. The ‘under’ is 5-0 the last five clashes between these two teams in the Windy City. Celtics ‘under’ in 13 of their last 16 road games. Bulls ‘under’ in 10 of their last eleven home games against teams with winning road records. That tells us the Bulls know they must slow the pace to have a chance to win. They’ll grind tonight and keep this from being a shootout. BET UNDER! |
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04-27-17 | Raptors v. Bucks UNDER 195.5 | Top | 92-89 | Win | 100 | 4 h 39 m | Show |
We will play UNDER 195.5 in the Toronto Raptors @ Milwaukee Bucks game. Tipoff is 7PM ET. We hit a big UNDER wager earlier in this series in Game 3 and will come right back here with the same bet. Looking at this first round matchup we see the Bucks have scored 97 or less points in 3 of the five games. Toronto has scored 87 or less points in 3 of the five. In the most recent meeting in Toronto, these two teams combined for 211 total points but they only took 139 shots to get there. Remember, the league average for field goal attempts per game is 170 and the league average for points scored is 211. So these two clubs scored the league average but took 31 LESS FG ATTEMPTS! In other words, they shot extremely well. Had the Bucks shot their regular season average percentage on the game they score around 83 points. The same can be said for the Raptors. If they shoot 'normally' at home they score approximately 100 points. In the two games in Milwaukee the Raptors scored 77 and 87 points and shot an average of 37.5%. The Bucks put up 104 and 76 points in the two games in Milwaukee but shot nearly 53% in the game they put up 104 (regular season average 47.5%). Lots of UNDER support here as 5 straight meetings on this court between these two franchises have all stayed below the posted number. 11-4 under record the last 15 meets. Based on pace of play we expect a low scoring game. |
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04-25-17 | Jazz v. Clippers UNDER 196 | Top | 96-92 | Win | 100 | 6 h 58 m | Show |
ASA play on UNDER 195 Utah Jazz @ LA Clippers, 10:30PM ET - This is clearly a contrarian wager on our part and we'll explain why we're on the right side here. Take a look at the actual Totals posted by Vegas on the last three games of this series. In Game 2 the Total was 199.5 and the two teams combined for 190 points. That was with 154 combined field goal attempts. In Game 3 the number is set at 197.5 which is a logical adjustment by Vegas based on the first two games. The Jazz and Clippers have hot shooting nights and combine for 217 total points but they only attempts 144 field goals. After a high scoring game you'd expect the number to go up correct? In Game 4 though, the number drops to 196 and they total 203-points. They did it again with some remarkable shooting on just 149 attempts from the field. So after two straight overs and higher scoring games the number tonight dips to the lowest of the series at 195? The key here is the pace of play statistics. The league average for FG attempts per game is 170 but these two teams have combined for 144 and 149 in two straight games. Logically, statistics say their shooting percentages return to normal and at a slower paced game we get a very low scoring contest. Both teams are very good shooting teams on the season but in the last two games they've been abnormally good. The Jazz have shot a combined 53% (season ave 46.7%) while the Clippers shot 54% in Game 3 and have made 39% of their 3's the past two games which is also higher than their season numbers. The Under has cashed 5 of the last six meetings here. Play UNDER! |
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04-24-17 | Warriors v. Blazers OVER 220 | Top | 128-103 | Win | 100 | 6 h 54 m | Show |
ASA play OVER 220 Golden State Warriors @ Portland Trailblazers 10:30PM ET. To begin with our Math Model projected 228 total points on this game with the big indicators here being the pace of play. In the last two games these teams have combined for 181 FG attempts in each game which is substantially higher than the league average. In comparison to the league average for points scored per game (211) and field goal attempts this total has still not been set high enough. In other words we need 'average' shooting nights from both teams to cash in. Golden State’s road efficiency numbers are off the charts as they average 1.128 points per possession which is 2nd best in the NBA. They average 113PPG on the road and in the three meeting here against the Blazers this season they put up 127, 113 and 119 points. There is no reason the Warriors don’t get to 115 plus in this game, especially considering the Blazers have the 7th worst defensive efficiency defense in the NBA allowing 1.109PPP and 108.5PPG. But to get to 220+ we’ll need the Blazers to score and we feel they will. Portland was in the top half of the league in pace of play and 8th in the NBA in scoring at 107.9PPG. All four of the regular season meetings between these two ended with 224 or more points and just 1 of the three playoff meetings has ended with less than 230 total points. 9 of the last ten meetings has ended with more total points than tonight's number so let's keep this simple and not over-think it. BET OVER! |
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04-22-17 | Spurs -3.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 108-110 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
ASA's 10* NBA PLAYOFF GAME OF THE YEAR - PLAY ON San Antonio -3.5 over Memphis, Saturday at 8:00 PM ET We love this wager on the San Antonio Spurs over Memphis Grizzlies, Game 4 Saturday, 8PM ET. The Spurs won the first two games of the series then played poorly in Game 3 and lost to the Grizzlies by 11-points. Memphis played great in Game 3 but the margin wasn’t insurmountable for the Spurs on an off day. The Grizzlies shot nearly 51% as a team, 41% from the 3-point line, 90% from the FT line and only had 5 turnovers. We like when elite teams are coming off a bad loss and with a marginal spread here this is an easy call to lay the points with the visitor. The Spurs road record of 31-11 SU this year is better than the Grizzlies 25-17 SU record. San Antonio had an average road point differential of +6.2PPG which is better than all but 6 teams HOME differentials in the entire league. That’s amazing when you really think about it! In comparison, the Grizzlies home differential was +2.1PPG which is 21st worst in the entire league. San Antonio was 16-5 SU this season when coming off a loss and an INCREDIBLE 95-30 SU (76%) off a beat since 2012. With this line being as low as it is we are basically just asking them to win this game outright and odds are when they win it will be by more than 4-points. Memphis lost a key defensive cog with the injury to Tony Allen and that’s one less defender to slow down Kawhi Leonard. Easy call here for a wager on Coach Popp and the Spurs to bounce back with a win over a mediocre Memphis team. Lay it! |
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04-20-17 | Raptors v. Bucks -1.5 | Top | 77-104 | Win | 100 | 6 h 28 m | Show |
ASA Play on: Milwaukee Bucks (-1.5) over Toronto Raptors. The natural shift in this line has this number right where it should be but we felt the Bucks would be a few points higher than it is. Milwaukee outplayed the Raptors in both games in our opinion and had two 3’s rim out late in Game 2 which would have given them a lead, and could have altered that outcome putting them up 2-0 in the series. The Bucks shot just 41.4% in Game 2 after hitting 44.7% in Game 1 and now that they are back home, expect those shooting percentages to go up. On the year, the Bucks shot 47.9% at home (6th best in the NBA), and over 37% (13th) from beyond the arc. The Bucks closed the regular season out by winning 8 of their last ten home games which included a 7-point win against this same Raptors team as a 1-point favorite. Since 2013 the Raptors have the lowest ATS winning percentage in the NBA at 28.1% (9-23-1 ATS record) so it’s not like we are playing against a franchise with a solid recent history of winning in the post season. Not to mention, one of the Raptors key players, Kyle Lowry is not known as a clutch player in the postseason. Even though he made the game winner the other night, Lowry has a career playoff shooting percentage of just .381% which is well below his season averages. The Bucks were 7-3 ATS this season when tabbed a favorite of -2.5-points or less and we feel they take care of business at home in Game #3. |
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04-19-17 | Blazers v. Warriors UNDER 220 | Top | 81-110 | Win | 100 | 6 h 24 m | Show |
We are going to play UNDER in the Portland Trailblazers @ Golden State Warriors game #2, Weds 10:30PM ET - Public money has been steadily coming in on the OVER tonight, yet the line has dropped from 221 to 220. The opening game of this series ended with 230 total points but there were some abnormal circumstances that we don't expect to repeat tonight. The Blazers starting backcourt of CJ McCollum and Damian Lillard went off in Game 1 as they combined for 75 of the 109 points the Blazers scored. Those two players were 28 of 54 from the field and 7 of 15 from beyond the arc. It's unlikely those two great players can duplicate a performance like that again tonight. The rest of the Blazers shot just 30% on the night. Meanwhile the Warriors shot 53% from the field and Kevin Durant contributed 32 points on 12 of 20 shooting. Durant is questionable tonight and even if he does play he won't be 100% and won't put up those numbers again. Let's not forget the Warriors have the 2nd best overall defensive efficiency rating in the NBA overall, #1 when playing at home. Portland hasn't been great defensively all season long but they were better down the stretch of the regular season by holding five straight opponents to 106 points or less. All the indicators tell us the UNDER is the way to go here. |
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04-18-17 | Bucks v. Raptors OVER 194 | Top | 100-106 | Win | 100 | 6 h 27 m | Show |
We are playing OVER 194 in the Milwaukee Bucks @ Toronto Raptors game Tuesday. The line on this game has been over-adjusted by the Oddsmakers as its 4 full points less than Game 1. Granted, these two teams combined for just 180 total points in the opener but the Raptors couldn't make a shot in the second half and only scored 13-points in the 4th quarter. For the game the Raptors shot just 36%, going 27 of 75 from the field. That's an abnormally low number as Toronto shot 46.3% on the season which was 11th best in the NBA. Not to mention their 75 field goal attempts were 9 less than their season average of 84.3 on the year. If Toronto has an average night shooting and an average number of field goal attempts, the opener goes way over this number. The Bucks had a decent shooting night as they hit 44.7% from the field but that is still below their season average of 47.4% which was 4th best in the NBA. On the road this season the Bucks average 204 total points per game while the Raptors averaged 213 at home. Do you know how many times the Raptors and their opponent have totaled less than 200 points in Toronto this year? Just 9 times out of 42 games! This is the 6th meeting of the season between these two teams and 4 of the six had totals set by the oddsmakers of 203 or more. Value says bet OVER! |
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04-17-17 | Pacers v. Cavs OVER 208 | Top | 111-117 | Win | 100 | 5 h 32 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: Over 208 Indiana Pacers @ Cleveland Cavaliers, 7PM ET - All we need is an average game for this bet to win and we feel we get that tonight. What we mean by average is this. The league average for points scored in an NBA game is 211PPG this year and based on what these two teams did this year we are predicting 213 total points. Both clubs are right around league average when it comes to pace or possessions per game. Both Indiana and Cleveland are above average in terms of offensive efficiency ratings with the Cavs having the 3rd highest points per possession in the NBA at 1.137PPP. Both teams are also below average in defensive efficiency. In the opener these two combined for 217 total points and that was with the Cavs missing 13 free throws and Kyrie Irving going just 1 for 9 from beyond the arc. In the last four meetings between these two teams they've combined for 249, 217, 265 (OT) and 217. Both teams have some significant over trends right now and we'll predict another over tonight. |
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04-15-17 | Bucks v. Raptors -7 | Top | 97-83 | Loss | -107 | 6 h 37 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: @TORONTO RAPTORS (-7) over Milwaukee Bucks, 5:30PM ET - We are playing on the Toronto Raptors at home minus the points (-7) over the visiting Milwaukee Bucks. The Raptors are 60-22 SU at home last 2 seasons with an average point differential of 7.1PPG which is the 5th best differential in the entire NBA the past two years. They have a veteran team that is healthy right now and know what it takes to win in the playoffs. We feel the Lowry injury was a blessing for the Raptors how had the opportunity to develop some other players and build chemistry. As far as the season series is concerned, the Raptors won 3 of 4 meetings with Bucks this year and both home games were blowouts by 16 and 22 points. The young Bucks have a bright future and may win a few games in this series, just not the opener on the road. On the year the Bucks had a negative road differential of -2.9PPG which is exactly league average. Milwaukee was out-shot and out-rebounded in both games in Toronto and lost by a combined 38 total points AND that was with starter Jabari Parker in the lineup who scored 48 points in those 2 contests. Raps 5-1 ATS last six meetings and chalk has covered 21 of the last 29 between these two teams. Any way we slice it comes up Toronto in Game 1. |
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04-11-17 | Nuggets v. Mavs -2 | Top | 109-91 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 51 m | Show |
ASA play on: Dallas Mavericks (-2) over Denver Nuggets, 8:35PM ET - The Denver Nuggets were eliminated from the playoffs in heart-breaking fashion the other night at home when Russell Westbrook hit a 26-foot jumper at the buzzer to beat Denver. It's only human nature to let down here after that emotional beat. With literally nothing to play for we don't expect a focused Nuggets team to put up much of a fight here. Dallas on the other hand is coming off a blowout loss and will be playing their final home game of the season and will want to reward their loyal followers with a good showing. Sure, the Mavs are just 1-4 SU their last five home games but take a look at who they played: Spurs, Thunder, Raptors, Clippers and Warriors. Those are five of the best teams in the NBA (excluding OKC who is good but not great). The Nuggets were recently a 2-point home favorite over the Mavs which means this line should be much higher than it currently is. The Mavs as a low chalk have been great this year with a 7-1 ATS mark when laying 3.5 or less points. Nuggets have not covered a game in Dallas in 5 straight tries! Given the circumstances this sets up to be an EASY win for Dallas! |
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04-07-17 | Thunder v. Suns OVER 227.5 | Top | 99-120 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 8 m | Show |
Today we play OVER 227.5 in the Oklahoma City Thunder @ Phoenix Suns game, 10PM ET. The Thunder are essentially locked into the 6th seed in the West so this game really isn't about playoff positioning. But it is about Russell Westbrook setting the all time record for the most triple-doubles in a season so expect a focused Thunders team tonight. OKC could play a better opponent than tonight's as the Suns are young, fun and want to run-n-gun! Westbrook is averaging 41.7 points, 13.7 rebounds and 13.7 assists against the Suns this season and had a pair of games with 51 and 48 points! He also needs just 6 assists tonight to ensure averaging double digits assists this year and who better to play than the Suns who he has a career best 22 assist game against. Phoenix waved the white flag a week ago and are sitting veteran players to see how the younger pieces fit. Defensively for the Sun's it's been a disaster as they've allowed 120+ in four straight and 112 or more in 9 of their last ten games. Phoenix has the 3rd worst defensive efficiency rating in the NBA on the year and are also the 2nd fastest paced team which helps our wager tonight. Just over a month ago these same two teams met and combined for 229 total points and that was with the Thunder shooting just 42.5% as a team against a Suns D that allows over 47% on their home court. OKC has played in a few lower scoring games of late but tonight they'll gladly play the Suns style and it will lead to 230+ points. |
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04-05-17 | Mavs v. Clippers OVER 202.5 | Top | 101-112 | Win | 100 | 7 h 24 m | Show |
ASA play on: OVER 202.5 Dallas Mavericks @ LA Clippers, 10:35PM ET - Based on the full season statistics our math model projects 207 total points in this game but when we dissect those numbers, we see a current trend toward an even higher scoring game. On the season the Mavs average 92.1 possessions per game which is what they've averaged their last five games. But their offensive efficiency numbers are better and their defensive efficiency numbers are worse. Dallas is coming off a game last night and when playing without rest the Mavs have averaged 205PPG on the season. The Clippers are about league average in pace of play and offensive efficiency ratings but below average in defensive efficiency. Don't forget the average total points scored in an NBA game this year is 211 so today's total on this game is set a full 8-points less than average. The Clippers have had 3 full days rest leading up to tonight and in the previous 4 games in this scheduling situation those games have averaged 234 total points. |
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04-04-17 | Blazers v. Jazz -6 | Top | 87-106 | Win | 100 | 5 h 50 m | Show |
ASA play on: Utah Jazz (-6) over Portland Trailblazers, 10:35PM ET - This is clearly a big game for both teams as the Jazz are fighting for the 4th spot in the West and a first round home series versus the Clippers. Portland on the other hand is fighting for the 8th and final spot in the West. At first glance this looks like a tough call but really it's not. We consider the Jazz one of the 8 best teams in the league and this is a great spot to play on them considering they are off a loss in San Antonio their last game out. Utah is 5-1 SU their last six when playing at home off a loss and all five of those victories came by 6 or more points. The Jazz are 26-12 SU at home this season with the 7th best home differential in the NBA of +6PPG. Portland is 16-24 SU on the road this season with a negative differential of -3.8PPG. They have been good when playing without rest this year, but a key injury to starting center Jusuf Nurkic, has really hurt their depth and front court presence. Last night in Minny, Karl-Anthony Towns dominated the Blazers bigs with a 34-point, 12 rebound night. Jazz center Rudy Gobert could put up similar numbers tonight. The home team has been the bet in this series as they hold a 5-0 ATS record and four of the five wins by the home team have been blowouts. Play on the Jazz! |
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04-03-17 | North Carolina v. Gonzaga UNDER 155 | Top | 71-65 | Win | 100 | 5 h 10 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Under 155, Gonzaga vs North Carolina, Monday at 9:20 PM ET This number is set awfully high for an NCAA Championship game. For some perspective, just 4 of the last 26 NCAA title games have topped 160 points (this total is currently set at 155). While both offenses are definitely capable, let’s not forget that the Zags are #1 in the nation in defensive efficiency and defensive eFG%. With this number set where it is, one of this two teams almost has to get to 80 points. Gonzaga has not allowed a single team to reach 80 all year. UNC’s defense has been solid during the tourney as well allowing just 40% from the field. They just held a very good shooting Oregon team to 38%. With PG Berry having 2 bad ankles, this Tar Heel team will rely very heavily on Jackson from the outside. If he’s off, they will have trouble scoring bunches from deep. Inside they rely on offensive rebounding and putbacks and with Gonzaga’s size, they should be able to neutralize that a bit. Also, we don’t envision the Zags shooting nearly 50% as they did on Saturday. In last year’s championship game, UNC & Villanova combined to shoot 49.5% and they still only reached 151 points. Both teams will have to play very well offensively to get to this number and we don’t think it happens. Take the UNDER. |
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04-01-17 | Oregon +5 v. North Carolina | Top | 76-77 | Win | 100 | 52 h 47 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Oregon +5 over UNC, Saturday at 8:35 PM ET The Ducks run to the Final 4 has been extremely impressive as they topped one of the hottest teams in the country (Michigan) in the Sweet 16 and then beat what many considered to be the favorite to win it all (Kansas) in the Elite 8. They Jayhawks were basically at home in Kansas City and they were rolling to say the least winning their first 3 NCAA tourney games all by at least 20 points. Even with that, Oregon handled the Jayhawks by 14 points in a game that was never really in doubt. KU’s only lead of the game was 3-2. The Ducks are 33-5 on the season and 3 of their 5 losses have come by 4 points or less. UNC is obviously very good but we feel they are a bit overrated right now. This team struggled to beat Arkansas in the round of 32 and had to come from 5 points down with 5:00 to go to beat Kentucky by 2 points on a shot at the buzzer. With PG Berry not at 100%, and maybe not even close to it, we think UNC is absolutely beatable here. These two teams are very close in a number of key statistical categories and actually Oregon is the better shooting team (48.4% to 46.9%) and better defensively allowing 65 PPG on 40.7% shooting to UNC’s 71 PPG allowed and 41.7%. The Ducks athletes are absolutely on par with UNC and may actually be better. They should be able to hold their own on the defensive boards which is key vs the Tar Heels. As far as NBA talent goes, the Heels do not have an advantage as they have 2 of the top 53 prospects according the Chad Ford (Jackson & Bradley) while Oregon actually has 3 (Brooks, Dorsey, and Bell). UNC was just a 1.5 point favorite on a neutral court vs Kentucky. Based on that alone, they should be 2.5 or 3 at the very most here. We’re getting value with a very good Oregon team. Don’t be at all surprised if they pull the upset here. |
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04-01-17 | South Carolina v. Gonzaga UNDER 138 | Top | 73-77 | Loss | -105 | 96 h 42 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 138, Gonzaga vs South Carolina, Saturday at 6:09 PM ET In this game we have the two top defensive efficiency teams in the entire nation with Gonzaga ranking #1 and South Carolina #2. Both rank in the top 12 nationally in eFG% defense (Zags #1 & S Caro #12) and each lockdown the 3 point line as good as anyone in the nation (both allowing 30% or under). That should limit points from deep which is always a big advantage when you’re on the UNDER. They’ve continued that shut down mode throughout the tourney where South Carolina has allowed their 4 opponents to shoot just 39% and Gonzaga has done even better allowing 33%. They’ve also stopped their opponents from beyond the arc with South Carolina allowing 32% during the tourney (that includes facing two of the top 3-point shooting teams in the nation Marquette & Duke) while the Zags have allowed just 24% from deep. The fact is, it’s really tough to get solid looks against these two defenses. Let’s also not forget that while the Gamecocks have shot the ball decent during the tourney, that’s not their M.O. as they are one of the worst shooting teams in the nation (306th nationally out of 351 teams). On the other side, the Zags simply aren’t accustomed to facing the type of pressure defense they will see here. They did face one similar defense during the tourney in terms of aggressive pressure and that was WVU. In that game Gonzaga shot 40% and scored just 61 points. This one is going to be an absolutely slugfest with the defenses being in control. Let’s also keep in mind this game is being played in a football venue (Arizona Cards) so not conducive to shooting the ball. We don’t see either team reaching 70 points and this one stays well UNDER the total. |
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03-31-17 | Pacers v. Raptors -5.5 | Top | 100-111 | Win | 100 | 5 h 46 m | Show |
ASA play on: Toronto Raptors (-5.5) over Indiana Pacers. There really isn't a reason to expect the Pacers to suddenly turn around their road fortunes tonight in Toronto against a Raptors team that is really good on their home floor. Toronto is 25-13 SU on their home court this year with the 6th best average point differential in the NBA of +7.7PPG. By comparison, Indiana is just 11-26 SU away this season with a negative differential of minus -6.5PPG which is 8th worst in the league. The Pacers have lost 6 straight road games by an average of 13PPG, so as I said before, why would they do a 180 tonight and play well away from home? Both teams have plenty to play for as the Raptors are looking to move up in the East, while the Pacers are trying to hold on to a playoff spot. We do like the fact the Raptors are off a home loss here as they have covered 5 of their last six off a loss anyplace. They have back to back home losses just once this season and that came to a San Antonio Spurs team that is one of the best teams in the league. Toronto recently beat the Pacers 116-91 and dominated the boards 51-33. Expect much of the same tonight. |
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03-30-17 | Georgia Tech +4.5 v. TCU | Top | 56-88 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 49 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Georgia Tech +4.5 over TCU, Thursday at 8:00 PM ET We faded this Tech team on Tuesday as they were facing a red hot CS Bakersfield squad that made it to the NIT Final 4 by winning 3 road games vs 3 very good opponents. Needless to say we were impressed with the Jackets and what they were able to do vs a very good opponent. We always look long and hard at “defensive dogs” in college basketball and that’s what we have here. Tech ranks 6th nationally in defensive efficiency a full 50 spots ahead of TCU. If we look strictly at defensive eFG% it’s even more drastic as GT ranks 17th in that category while the Frogs come in at 178th. Tech’s problem at times has been on the offensive end but they look like they might be peaking on that end of the court at the right time topping 70 points in all 4 of their NIT contests. They’ve done that against 4 defenses (Indiana, Belmont, Ole Miss, and CS Bakersfield) that rank better than TCU in eFG% defense. They’ve shot over 47% from the field so far in this tourney vs 4 solid defenses. If the Jackets do that, they are obviously very tough to beat because they are a shut down team defensively. We think that offensive trend will continue tonight vs TCU. The Frogs had just one win in the Big 12 regular season vs a team that finished in the top half of the conference (Iowa State at home). That’s it. Meanwhile GT beat North Carolina, Florida State, Notre Dame, and Syracuse. We expect this to be a tightly contested game throughout and the number is too high. Take the points and Georgia Tech. |
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03-28-17 | CS Bakersfield +2.5 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 61-76 | Loss | -102 | 6 h 41 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON CS Baskersfield +2.5 over Georgia Tech, Tuesday at 7:00 PM ET on ESPN - NIT GAME OF THE YEAR CS Bakersfield has been more than impressive during their 3 game NIT run thus far. They have won all 3 of those games on the road all vs top 90 teams. Their NIT road wins came against Cal (who was 15-3 at home with 3 losses coming to Arizona, Oregon, and Virginia), Colorado State (who was 15-4 at home), and UT Arlington (who came into the game 14-0 at home). Impressive to say the least. Those wins improved the Roadrunners road/neutral record to 13-8 on the season. They’ve proven all season long they can get it done on the road. Over the last two seasons this group is 23-16 on the road. A few of their road losses this year came vs top notch teams early in the season. They had competitive losses @ SMU, @ Arizona, and @ BYU. Their 6 point loss @ SMU, who was 18-0 at home, was their 2nd closest home win of the season. This is a HUGE deal to this team. They are rarely in the spotlight and a trip to NYC, playing on ESPN, and a chance to win the NIT is of massive importance to this veteran team (3 seniors & 2 juniors in the starting line up). This was the best team in the WAC all season winning the regular season title but getting tripped up by New Mexico State in the tourney final. These veterans are 25-9 this year and they were 24-9 last season. The Roadrunners are a great defensive team ranking 3rd nationally in defensive eFG%. The only two teams ranked higher in that category are Gonzaga (in the Final 4) and UCF (in the NIT Final 4). As far as defensive efficiency goes, they rank 15th nationally which is higher than two Final 4 teams (UNC & Oregon). Georgia Tech had the luxury of playing 2 home games in their 3 game journey to NYC. They have been a bad road team all season long with a 4-11 mark in road/neutral games. They struggle offensively and will again tonight vs a top notch defense. We think CSB will prove to be the tougher, more motivated team tonight and in our opinion, they are simply better than the Jackets. Take the points. |
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03-27-17 | Pelicans v. Jazz UNDER 199 | Top | 100-108 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 19 m | Show |
UNDER 199 in the New Orleans at Utah Jazz game tonight, 10:30PM ET. There are several questionable players in the rotations for both teams but either way we expect a lower scoring game tonight. These same two teams recently met on this court (3/6) and produced just 171 total points. The Vegas number on that game was 197. Looking at the Pelicans most recent games they've played against some of the leagues faster paced teams which has led to some higher scoring games, hence a higher line on this game. But when they've played similar teams to the Jazz like Memphis and Toronto they've scored just 177 and 181 total points. Utah is the slowest paced team in the NBA at just 91.6 possessions per game and they have the 3rd best defensive efficiency rating allowing just 1.051 points per possession. New Orleans typically plays faster but they also have the 5th best DEFF rating allowing just 1.064PPP. We doubt New Orleans wants to get into an up-and-down game tonight after a game last night in Denver which will clearly help out cause here. We bet UNDER the total! |
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03-26-17 | South Carolina +3.5 v. Florida | Top | 77-70 | Win | 100 | 3 h 38 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* South Carolina +3.5 over Florida, Sunday at 2:20 PM ET We've broken down film on these two teams most recent games and feel the Gamecocks are simply the better team at this moment and that the oddsmakers have the wrong team favored. South Carolina had a fantastic start to the season and were considered one of the better teams in the country before a late game skid caused some doubts. Now they are playing lights out basketball with three really impressive wins in row over Marquette, Duke and Baylor. Florida is no slouch either but they beat East Tennessee State, a Virginia team that was really struggling late in the season and it took OT to beat a sound Wisconsin team. The Badgers had problems with the Gators athletic style of play which is not a concern for South Carolina who can match them physically. In the two meetings this season the Gators beat the Gamecocks by 15 at home as a -7.5-point favorite while the Cocks won at home by 4 as a 2-point chalk. If we break this game down according to season stats and efficiency ratings the Gators look like the better overall team. But when you analyze how each team is CURRENTLY playing, it's clear the Gamecocks are better. Grab whatever points are available for insurance, but don't be surprised with an upset. Elite 8 dogs (29-19 ATS since 2004) are the way to go. |
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03-25-17 | Raptors v. Mavs OVER 193.5 | Top | 94-86 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 51 m | Show |
ASA PLAY OVER 194 in the Toronto Raptors @ Dallas Mavericks game, 8:35PM ET. Our analytics or math model has put us on this total that has clearly been set to low by the oddsmakers. Our computers tell us the total points scored in this game should be 203 which is drastically different that the set number. Let's not forget the league average for points scored in an NBA game is 211. Both of these team are near the league average in pace of play so we know we'll get the tempo we need for points. They are slightly better than average in terms of defensive efficiency ratings and Toronto is far better in offensive efficiency than the Mavs. But again, we're talking averages here and what the projected total points that will be scored based on math. Part of the reason this number is so low is the fact these two teams recently playing in Toronto and that game ended with just 178 total points but the Mavs, who average 98PPG on the season, managed just 78. That won't happen at home today where they average 100.5PPG on the season. The value wager on this game is OVER the total! |
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03-25-17 | Xavier v. Gonzaga UNDER 145.5 | Top | 59-83 | Win | 100 | 7 h 57 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* UNDER 145.5, Xavier vs Gonzaga, Saturday at 6:05 PM ET After making 46% of their shots on the season and 35% of their 3-point attempts, Xavier has played over their heads offensively during the first 3 games of the tourney. In their 3 NCAA tourney games they have made 53% of their shots and 46% of their 3-point attempts. Now they face a defense that ranks #1 nationally in defensive efficiency AND defensive eFG%. Gonzaga’s offense has been shaky at best during this tourney (shooting just 41%) but their defense has lived up to its lofty billing. They held a high scoring South Dakota State team to just 46 points in the opener. Then Northwestern put up only 20 points in the first half before breaking out in the 2nd half although we feel that had a lot to do with Gonzaga letting up with a huge lead. On Thursday they completely stifled WVU’s offense holding them to 58 points on 27% shooting. On the season the Zags have allowed only 8 teams to top 70 points in 36 games! We think they keep XU under 70 here. We also think Gonzaga’s offense is held short of 70 in this one. While we look for XU’s offense to cool down, we also look for their defense to continue to play very well. They’ve allowed 65, 66, and 71 points in the tourney, the final two tallies coming against very good offensive teams (Florida State & Arizona). The Musketeers held their first 3 opponents to 41% and we can’t envision a struggling Gonzaga offense doing much more than that. UNDER is the play in this one. |
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03-24-17 | Wisconsin v. Florida UNDER 132 | Top | 83-84 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 59 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Under 132, Florida vs Wisconsin, Friday at 9:55 PM ET We expect a slow paced game here and with 2 of the top 7 teams in the nation in defensive efficiency, a low scoring one as well. Florida ranks 3rd in the nation in defensive efficiency and they’ve allowed only 104 total points in their 2 NCAA games. They just held Virginia to 39 points last weekend to get here. While we don’t expect them to do that to Wisconsin, the game will be played at a similar pace and Florida-UVA put up just 104 points. The two teams combined for only 104 shot attempts as well and converted on only 17 FT’s. A low shot total and few FT’s here again as neither team fouls very much. The Gators have held 14 of their last 19 opponents to less than 70 points and we don’t think the Badgers get there. Wisconsin ranks 7th in defensive efficiency and just held a much better offense (Villanova ranked 4th in offensive efficiency) to only 62 points. Florida is not a great shooting team if they are forced to play a half court game and that’s what Wisconsin will make them do here. Only 7 teams all season have topped 70 points on Wisconsin. That’s it. Four of those seven opponents ranked in the top 10 nationally in offensive efficiency (Michigan, UNC, Marquette, and Creighton when Watson was healthy). Florida is not nearly as potent offensively as those teams. Both defenses push the opposing offenses into long possessions and this one stays UNDER the total. |
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03-24-17 | UCLA v. Kentucky +1.5 | Top | 75-86 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Kentucky +1.5 over UCLA, Friday at 9:35 PM ET We’ve said all along we don’t expect UCLA to get to the Final 4 because their defense is simply a tier below many of the other schools. If the Bruins did make it to Arizona, they would do so with the lowest rated defense (79th nationally in defensive efficiency) to make a Final 4 since 2002. Their offense is great. They were able to overwhelm Cincinnati midway through the 2nd half because their offense was so much better than the Bearcats. Remember Cincy led that game at half and for much of the first part of the 2nd half but just couldn’t keep up on offense losing 79-67. Now UCLA faces a team that is close to being on par with them offensively as Kentucky checks in with the 12th most efficient offense in the nation (UCLA is 2nd). However, one of the reasons we like the Cats here is they are MUCH better on the defensive end ranking 7th nationally. The gap between these two defenses is much wider than the offensive gap. On top of that, Kentucky is the better rebounding team. Throw in the fact that this is a revenge game as UCLA beat Kentucky 97-92 at Rupp Arena in early December snapping the Cats 42 game home winning streak and we have UK coming into with big time motivation. UCLA was able to hit 53% of their shots in that game while Kentucky made only 41% but it was still a tight game down the stretch. The Wildcats have improved immensely on defense since that outing holding 10 of their last 12 opponents to 70 points or less. While we don’t expect them to shut down UCLA here, we think they’ll play much better on that end of the court and exploit UCLA’s defense here for the win. Kentucky comes into this game as an underdog for just the 2nd time this season and the crowd in Memphis will be a big time edge for Kentucky. Take the Cats. |
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03-24-17 | South Carolina v. Baylor UNDER 135 | Top | 70-50 | Win | 100 | 46 h 5 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Under 135, Baylor vs South Carolina, Friday at 7:25 PM ET Two top notch defenses should control this game. The Gamecocks rank as the 4th most efficient defense in the nation while Baylor checks in with the 4th most efficient defense. Both stop units are far ahead of the offense. Especially South Carolina. We’re going to discount their first two offensive performances as outliers to the norm. They put up 93 on Marquette who came into the tourney with one of the least efficient defenses. The Gamecocks then had 23 points at halftime vs Duke, which is a normal-like SC performance, only to put up a ridiculous 65 points in the 2nd half. The most EVER in a half vs a Krzyzewski coached team. The fact is, this is a poor shooting team. The worst remaining in the tourney BY FAR. South Carolina ranks 306th nationally in eFG% (only 44 teams are worse). Of the teams remaining in the tourney Florida is the 2nd worst shooting team and they rank 116th nationally which gives you an idea of how poor this Gamecock team shoots. Now they face a Baylor team that plays zone and will make they shoot jump shots for the outside which usually doesn’t work for SC. The Bears shot nearly 49% in their first two NCAA games and both were high scoring. However, they were both vs lower tier defensive teams. So each offense has faced poor defenses thus far and now they run into a brick wall. The high scoring games these teams were involved in last week set this one up nicely for an UNDER play. |
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03-24-17 | Nets v. Wizards UNDER 222 | Top | 108-129 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 45 m | Show |
ASA 3* PLAY UNDER 221 Brooklyn Nets @ Washington Wizards, 7PM ET. We successfully played under in the Nets game last night and our math model has put us on this under tonight. Quickly, comparing last night's Nets game with tonight's opponent, we see that Washington plays slower than Phoenix (Nets played last night) and are better defensively. But yet the line on tonight's game is nearly the same. These same two teams just met in mid-February and combined for 224 in overtime. At the end of regulation the Nets and Wizards had combined for just 200 points in that game. As we mentioned last night, the Nets are playing much slower of late and it's led to 3 unders in their last four games. Last night they did put up 126 points but that was against a Suns team that is horrible defensively and they are a team that has quit on the season. Washington has a huge game on deck against the Cavs and play a tough stretch of games coming up so the last thing they'll want to do tonight is run-n-gun. When playing in Washington the Wizards, combined with their opponent, have topped 224 total points just two times in their last 13. Brooklyn games average 224PPG on the road this year, Washington home games average 215. Do the math! Both teams scoring and points allowed are trending down right now and we bet UNDER here! |
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03-24-17 | Butler v. North Carolina UNDER 153 | Top | 80-92 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 24 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 153, Butler vs UNC, Friday at 7:05 PM ET Butler is a slow paced team and they know their best chance to win here is to keep this one a half-court game. While UNC wants to run, the slower paced usually gets the tempo they want as long as they aren’t getting blown out. That’s what we see happening here with Butler playing slow. Another key to beating UNC is keeping them off the offensive boards. Butler is a solid defensive rebounding team which will help (68th nationally) and our feel is they send everyone to the defensive boards to make sure UNC doesn’t dominate that aspect. Doing that will also take away chances for Butler pushing the ball after a rebound as everyone will be at the rim. Thus, they will most likely be walking the ball up after a defensive rebound. If the Heels are forced to play in a half court game, they are not a great shooting team. They rank 98th nationally in eFG% and that might be a bit skewed do to their offensive rebound put backs (basically many times turn into layups) and their points in transition – both should be limited here. The Bulldogs had 3 top 30 offenses (efficiency wise) in the Big East (Villanova, Marquette, & Xavier) and not one of those teams top 80 points (in 7 games). The Dogs held those opponents in their 7 match ups to an average of 69 PPG. UNC is a top offense but this line (with total factored in) is calling for UNC to reach 80+ points. We don’t think they will. On the flip side, it calls for Butler to reach 73 points (or so) and we don’t think that happens either. Butler is a solid shooting team but they are playing into the 19th most efficient defense in the nation. If this total stays where it is, it will be tied for the highest total all year for Butler. The other was vs Creighton early in the year with the Blue Jays were rolling and at full strength. The two totaled 139 in that game staying 14+ points below the number. In fact, Butler has topped 150 points (combined with opponent) just 6 times in 34 games this year. This one stays UNDER. |
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03-23-17 | Xavier v. Arizona UNDER 145 | Top | 73-71 | Win | 100 | 8 h 5 m | Show |
We play UNDER 145 in the Xavier vs. Arizona game. Our math on this game suggests less than 140 total points and we'll be UNDER here. Pace of play has the biggest impact on this wager as we get two slower paced teams here with Arizona ranking 288th (of of 351) while Xavier is 245th. On average, Arizona takes 18.6 seconds to get a shot off which is 295th slowest, Xavier takes 17.6 seconds to shoot which is 211th. Xavier put up some solid offensive numbers their last two games but it came against two defenses that were ranked 70th and 98th in defensive efficiency ratings. Arizona is 41st in DEFF and they play in the Big 12 which is 7th in efficiency ratings. The Musketeers put up 91 points against Florida State the other night by shooting 55.6% from the field overall, 64.7% from beyond the arc. Those numbers are not normal considering Xavier shoots 45.8% overall and 34.9% from 3 on the season. In other words, expect a return to normal season averages tonight, especially against a Wildcat 'D' that allows just 41.8% from the field and 30.9% from the 3-point line. Arizona had a high scoring game against North Dakota but NDU is the 34th fastest paced team in college hoops. In Zona's game against St Mary's, the total ended with 129 total points and St Mary's is 251st in pace which is similar to Xavier. We continue to monitor the number on this game which will trend up as the public bets over, then immediately bounce lower as the sharps bet under. Go with the smart money here! BET UNDER! |
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03-23-17 | Suns v. Nets UNDER 226.5 | Top | 98-126 | Win | 100 | 4 h 60 m | Show |
The value NBA Total bet tonight is UNDER in the Phoenix Suns @ Brooklyn Nets game. Our math model projects 218 total points in this game. The oddsmakers opened a number of 219.5 which has gone up dramatically to the current total. Obviously, there is tremendous value with the UNDER here. Phoenix is one of the highest scoring teams in the NBA at 107.1PPG but in their last five games they are averaging just 99.4PPG which is the 6th lowest average in the NBA. While their offensive numbers have been on a slide down hill, their defensive statistics have improved. On the season the Suns allow 1.116 points per possession (5th worst) but in their last five games they are giving up an average of 1.068PPP which is 12th best in the league. Phoenix has scored 103 or less points in 6 straight games. The Nets have had a few slower paced games and it looks like the wear and tear of the season is catching up with them, much like the Suns. The Nets are the fastest paced team in the league on the year with 101.1 possessions per game but in their last five games that average has dipped to 97 possessions which is 18th slowest. On the year the Nets have one of the three worst offenses in terms of offensive efficiency ratings and they've averaged just 99PPG their last three games. When the Suns have played on the road this season those games have averaged 219PPG while the Nets home games have averaged 215PPG. This is an easy call with the UNDER! |
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03-23-17 | West Virginia +3.5 v. Gonzaga | Top | 58-61 | Win | 100 | 50 h 34 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* West Virginia +3.5 over Gonzaga, Thursday at 7:35 PM ET The Zags did not look like a #1 seed over the first weekend. They struggled with a South Dakota State team that finished tied for 4th in the Summit League and then had Northwestern on the ropes and let the Cats come back and nearly pull the upset. We were on the Zags vs NW as we felt it was a perfect situation for them. Coming off a bad first outing for a top rated seed usually leads to a much better effort in game 2. They had a NW team that was simply happy to be in the Dance and off their first win ever in the NCAA tourney. They jumped out to a 22 point lead which is exactly as we felt the game would play out early. From that point on Gonzaga looked like an average team giving an OK, not great, Northwestern team a shot to win the game late. Now they get a very tough match up in the Sweet 16. WVU is a physical team that dominates the offensive boards (#6 nationally) and pressures offenses with waves of physically talented players. They are #1 in the nation at creating turnovers and while the Zags season long stats indicate they don’t turn the ball over a lot, however they don’t see anything like this defense during the season. In fact, 6 of their 9 opponents in the West Coast Conference rank 279th or lower in defensive turnover percentage. Only one ranks in the top 100. Now they face a team with better athletes than they are used to seeing that creates turnovers at the highest rate in the nation and plays in a much better conference (Big 12) while doing so. WVU runs a pressure defense that’s almost impossible to duplicate in practice. The Zags actually had more turnovers than assists in each of their first two NCAA games and those teams are nowhere near as good as West Virginia. They also don’t see great offensive rebounding teams with only 1 WCC team (St Marys) ranked in the top 100 in that category. Because of they often dominate the offensive glass and create turnovers, the Mountaineers often have more opportunities to score on the offensive end. Just over the last 10 games they have attempted 77 more shots than their opponents and that’s mainly vs very good Big 12 opponents. If they continue to shoot well (48% in first two NCAA games) they’ll be very tough to beat. As we stated, the Zags struggle with teams that are FAR inferior to WVU and if they play like that again Thursday, they have no chance to win. We like the dog here. |
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03-22-17 | Illinois-Chicago v. Coastal Carolina -3.5 | Top | 78-89 | Win | 100 | 25 h 58 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Coastal Carolina -3.5 over Illinois Chicago, Wednesday at 7:00PM ET We’re definitely getting some line value here with CC. The Chanticleers were just favored by 5.5 at home vs Loyola Maryland on Monday and now they are laying just 3.5 to UIC, two teams that are rated almost the same (Loyola 226th nationally & UIC 232nd). The situation here also heavily favors Coastal as they were at home on Monday and at home again tonight. UIC, on the other hand, has to travel for the first time in the CBI tourney. The Flames also played at home on Monday and now having to travel and play 2 days later gives them very little time to prepare for CC. On top of that, this post-season road situation is something nobody on UIC’s roster has ever been involved with. This is the youngest team in the nation with 4 freshmen in the starting line up & none of the other Flames have ever played in the post-season before this year. Coastal, on the other hand, is a veteran team (4 upperclassmen in the starting line-up) that has turned it on down the stretch winning 9 of their last 11 home games with their two losses each coming by 2 points. CC has better efficiency numbers both offensively and defensively. They also finished 10-8 in the tougher Sun Belt compared to UIC’s 7-11 record in the lower rated Horizon. This one sets up nicely and we’ll take Coastal Carolina to win and cover. |
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03-21-17 | Bucks v. Blazers OVER 207.5 | Top | 93-90 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 2 m | Show |
ASA PLAY OVER 207.5 in the Milwaukee Bucks @ Portland Trailblazers 10PM ET. We have patiently watched this line drop all day as it opened at 214.5 and is now 207.5 which offers tremendous value with an OVER bet. When these two teams met earlier this year the oddsmakers posted a number of 215 which is where our math model suggests this game will end up at. They combined for 222 in the earlier meeting and an easy over winner. Portland returns home tonight where they've combined with their opponents to scored more than tonight's total in 13 of their last 15. Milwaukee has gone under in several games of late but they also faced a few of the leagues better defensive efficiency teams in the NBA. Tonight they face a Blazers team that is 27th in the NBA in DEFF, allowing 1.117 points per possession. When playing on the road this season the Bucks games have averaged 207PPG this season while the Blazers home games have averaged 219 total points. The last 13 times these two teams have met in Portland the over has cashed 9 times. The bet here is OVER! |
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03-21-17 | Georgia Tech v. Ole Miss -5 | Top | 74-66 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 50 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Ole Miss -5 over Georgia Tech, Tuesday at 9:00 PM ET on ESPN2 While both are 2-0 in the NIT, the Ole Miss path has proven much more impressive. The Rebs won both games on the road @ Monmouth, who was easily the best team in the Metro Atlantic this year, and then a win @ Syracuse, who many felt should have been in the Big Dance. Now they are thrilled to finally get a home game and with a win they move to the NIT Final 4. If Mississippi was able to beat two very solid opponents on the road, we’re confident they can get a win at home in this one. Georgia Tech, on the other hand, has played both of their games at home getting wins over a disinterested Indiana team that has quit on the season and Belmont. Now Tech must travel for the first time in this tourney and they were terrible on the road all season long. The Jackets were 2-10 in road games this year losing by an average of 12 PPG. This team leans heavily on their defense and their numbers on that end of the court dropped significantly away from home. At home Tech allowed just 61 PPG and opponents shot under 40%. On the road they gave up 76 PPG and teams shot 46% from the field. A drastic difference to say the least. If they can’t rely on their defense, this team is in trouble because they are not good offensively ranking nearly the bottom of college hoops in offensive efficiency, eFG%, and FT%. Ole Miss was a potent offense at home averaging 80 PPG here. We don’t think Tech can keep up and we’ll lay the number with Mississippi. |
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03-20-17 | Jazz v. Pacers OVER 192.5 | Top | 100-107 | Win | 100 | 4 h 6 m | Show |
We will play OVER 192.5 in the Utah Jazz @ Indiana Pacers, 7PM ET - We are betting a number here as the value lies with an over wager on this game. Our math model suggests 201.5 points in this contest which is drastically higher than the Vegas line. Remember, scoring is up this year in the NBA and the league is per game is 211PPG. The Jazz are the slowest paced team in the league and yet they've had just 9 games in their last 51 with a posted total lower than tonight's number. Granted, the over is just 5-4 in those games but the point is Vegas doesn't typically post lines this low on games. As for the Pacers and Vegas Totals they have played 69 games this season and only TWO have had totals less than 200 points and both went over. These same two teams met in late January and the oddsmaker posted a number of 200.5 on that game and they combined for 209 points. Overall on the road this season the Jazz and their opponents are averaging 198PPG while the Pacers home games have averaged 208 total points per game. Utah is 15-10 to the over when the line is 194.5 or less. Over is 4-1 L5 Pacers games versus a team with a winning straight up record. |
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03-20-17 | UCF v. Illinois State -4.5 | Top | 63-62 | Loss | -107 | 5 h 42 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Illinois State -4.5 over UCF, Monday at 7:00 PM ET – ISU was easily the 2nd best team in the MVC all season long and not far behind Wichita State. The Redbirds beat the Shockers by 14 on this court this season. Speaking of this court, ISU is 16-0 this season at home and they have won 22 straight games at Redbird Arena. All but 3 of those 22 wins have come by at least 5 points (tonight’s number is -4.5). They whipped the top team in the Big West , Cal Irvine, here last week by 14 points. UCF won their opener at home vs Colorado by 5 points in what was a great draw for the Knights. Colorado was a veteran team that wasn’t thrilled to be in the NIT (their goal from day one was NCAA) and it was a long travel game for them – first time they’ve left the west coast this season. We were on UCF in that game and picked up a win. Now the Knights travel and they were less than impressive on the road this year. They did win 4 AAC road games but those came against the bottom 4 teams in the league and 3 of the 4 wins were by 3 points or less. They are not a great shooting team, especially on the road hitting only 40% of their shots, and they are facing a very good defense. ISU is 18th nationally in defensive efficiency and at home they allow opponents to hit just 37%. UCF is very solid defensively as well, but with ISU at home we think they’ll perform much better than UCF offensively. Lay the small number. |
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03-19-17 | Cincinnati +4 v. UCLA | Top | 67-79 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Cincinnati +4 over UCLA, Sunday at 9:40 PM ET We like looking at NCAA underdogs that have a big advantage defensively and we definitely have that here. The Bearcats are the 11th most efficient defense in the nation and 8th best when it comes to eFG% defense. UCLA ranks 83rd and 82nd in those 2 categories. Is UCLA better offensively? Sure they are but Cincy is no slouch this year coming in at 33rd nationally in offensive efficiency. We like the fact the Bearcats are simply the tougher team here as well. They’ll most likely win the battle of the boards and make this a grinder, half court type game. We’re not sure this young UCLA team will thrive in a slower paced game and you can bet that’s what Cincy will do here. There really isn’t a team in the Pac 12 that is a tough, slow paced team like the Bearcats so UCLA won’t be acclimated to playing against this style This tough, experienced Cincinnati team (4 Juniors & Seniors in the starting line up) has lots of tourney game time under their belts. They easily handled a solid Kansas State team in round one and we think they give UCLA fits here. The line is also begging you to take UCLA in this game as Vegas set the number very low at -4 and it has dropped to -3.5 since. With 70% of the bets coming in on the Bruins and they line dropping, that tells us most of the casual basketball bettors in Vegas this time of year are on UCLA while the people that bet heavier money and are doing this day in and day out are on the Bearcats. Rumors of Alford heading to Indiana can’t help here either. We think UCLA gets bounced here. |
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03-19-17 | Rhode Island v. Oregon -5 | Top | 72-75 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 17 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Oregon -5 over Rhode Island, Sunday at 7:10 PM ET URI is a solid team that plays very well on defense, however they don’t have enough offense to hang here. The Rams picked up a great draw in their first game playing a Creighton team that in their current state, wasn’t even good enough to be in the tourney. In fact, since the Blue Jays lost point guard Watson mid-season, they were just 7-9. If it weren’t for their early season run with Watson in the line up, the Jays would not have been in the tourney. Much is made of URI’s defense which is very good, however let’s not discount the Ducks defense. They actually have better efficiency numbers than URI (Oregon 22nd nationally in defensive efficiency & URI 26th). While the defenses will be comparable here, the Ducks offense is far superior. Oregon is the 17th most efficient offense in the nation and their eFG% is 55.8% which is good for 15th. Rhode Island’s eFG% ranks 175th and they are a bad 3-point shooting team (239th). They also make just 66% of their free throws. Speaking of FT’s, the Rams also send teams to the foul line A LOT (19th most in the nation) while the Ducks foul very infrequently sending teams to the line 16th least in the country. The Rams have played just 7 teams this year that made the tourney and were just 3-4 in those games. They are also very new to this gig having not been in the Dance since 1999. Oregon, on the other hand, is a veteran team that was one win away from the Final 4 last year. They are experienced in this spot and on a mission. Lay the small number. |
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03-18-17 | Northwestern v. Gonzaga -11 | Top | 73-79 | Loss | -107 | 21 h 27 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Gonzaga -11 over Northwestern, Saturday at 5:15 PM ET The Zags played one of their worst games of the season on Thursday and still beat South Dakota State by 20 points. They shot just 39% (their season average is 51%), 26% from 3 (season average is 38%) and they made just 8 of 18 from the FT line. You can bet after this team has been questioned as a #1 seed, they will play MUCH better on Saturday. Northwestern, on the other hand, has probably already accomplished all they could have hoped for. After making the Dance for the first time ever, they were a bit fortunate on Thursday when Vandy held a 1-point lead late and intentionally fouled NW thinking they were down 1. The Cats now have an NCAA appearance and an NCAA win on a down to the wire game so this one could be tough. We feel this game is very similar to their Big Ten tourney game vs Wisconsin. They came into that game having beaten Maryland to pretty much lock in their first NCAA tourney invite only to turn around and get crushed by the Badgers the following day. NW scored just 48 points in that game. This team can struggle offensively as they are just the 203rd best shooting team in the nation and they’ve been held under 70 points in 12 of their last 14 games. That won’t change here facing Gonzaga who rates as the #1 defensive efficiency team in the nation. As bad as they were offensively on Thursday, the Zags still held South Dakota State, a team that was regularly scoring 80+ points per game, to just 48. They have held 15 of their last 21 opponents to 61 points or less. We wouldn’t be at all surprised to see them hold Northwestern under 60 here. Add that to a motivated offense that will play much better on Saturday and the makings of a blowout are in order. Lastly, this game also falls into a very strong NCAA round 2 system of ours that has covered 13 of the last 16 times it’s applied (81%) and we side with Gonzaga as a Top Game here. |
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03-17-17 | Marquette v. South Carolina OVER 141 | Top | 73-93 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
PLAY OVER in the Marquette vs South Carolina game. The opening number on this game was 148 but has since been bet down to the current total of 141.5 and now the price is right for an OVER wager. Marquette is the 7th most efficient offense in the entire nation averaging 1.210 points per possession. They are 6th in eFG% at 57.6% and the #1 3-point shooting team in all college hoops. The Golden Eagles average possession length is 16.3 seconds which ranks 73rd overall in the county. Now the reason this line is low and has been bet down is because of South Carolina's poor offense. They are a bad shooting team at 46.7 eFG5 which is 316th in the nation BUT they are around average in pace of play and above average in average possession length at 16.6 seconds offensively. Where the Gamecocks will get their points is on the offensive glass where a small Marquette lineup will have a hard time blocking out. SC is the 44th best offensive rebounding team in the nation and even bad shooting teams can make layups. Two teams in the SEC that are very similar in raw statistics to Marquette are Arkansas and Auburn and when South Carolina played those two teams they combined for 167 and 159 total points. The value bet here is OVER the total! |
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03-17-17 | Troy State +20 v. Duke | Top | 65-87 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 34 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Troy +20 over Duke, Friday at 7:20 PM T We look for Duke to play a “ho-hum” type game in the opening round vs Troy. The Devils expended a ton of energy last weekend winning the ACC tourney beating Clemson, Louisville, UNC, and Notre Dame in 4 days. They are bound to have an emotional letdown after that one especially against a no name opponent like Troy. The Trojans are a dangerous team that is very athletic. Duke will not “out athlete” Troy in this one. They are a solid offensive team (51% eFG%) with experienced guards that can shoot the 3. The Trojans have 3 players in their starting lineup that hit at least 38% from deep and 4 of their 5 starters are upperclassmen. Defensively they aren’t great but not terrible either. As we stated they will match up athletically with Duke on the defensive end. They played USC to the wire on the road this year and the one NCAA caliber team in the Sun Belt besides Troy was UT Arlington and they split with them this year. Duke is a bit banged up with Jefferson & Allen not at 100%. You can bet Krzyzewski wants to get through this game and move on. They don’t need a blowout here and we’re not sure they could pull that off even if they wanted to. Sun Belt entries have taken much higher seeds to the wire each of the last two NCAA tourneys and we think it may happen again. |
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03-17-17 | UC-Davis v. Kansas -22.5 | Top | 62-100 | Win | 100 | 4 h 5 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Kansas -22.5 over UC Davis, Friday at 6:50 PM ET UC Davis ranks as THE WORST team in the field coming in at #216 in the Ken Pom rankings. They played ONE, yes ONE, top 100 team all season long and that was a 25 point loss to California who didn’t even make the tourney. Even with the weak schedule (300th SOS), the Aggies were a terrible offensive team this season. For the season UCD ranks 291st in offensive efficiency, 240th in eFG%, and shoot just 66% from the FT line. They have gone 7 consecutive games without reaching 70 points on offense and those were all vs opponents ranked 137th or lower. On top of that, this is a terrible spot for them after playing a tough down to the wire game on Wednesday night in Dayton they now play #1 seed Kansas in Tulsa just 2 days later. KU will be motivated here. They were taken out in the first game of the Big 12 tourney by TCU so they come in wanting to right that wrong. It was really a blessing in disguise as that loss was last Thursday so the Jayhawks have now had more than a week off to rest up, prepare and get ready for the Dance. Soon to be top 10 draft pick and one of the best players in the nation, Josh Jackson, was suspended for KU’s loss to TCU but returns here. Unlike UC Davis, Kansas has played only 3 teams all season long ranked below 200. All three of those opponents were ranked in a similar range to Davis (219th, 224th, and 249th) and KU destroyed all 3 teams 31, 30, and 18 points. KU can name the score here and with them being extra motivated coming in off a loss, we think they don’t let up. |
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03-17-17 | Iona v. Oregon OVER 152 | Top | 77-93 | Win | 100 | 22 h 44 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 152, Iona vs Oregon, Friday at 2:00 PM ET Iona is one of the fastest paced teams in the nation and they shoot the ball very well. They are the 16th best 3-point shooting team in the nation and they hit 77% of their FT’s. Defensively they won’t scare anyone. They rank 203rd nationally in defensive efficiency and in their 3 games vs NCAA tourney teams this year they allowed 99, 91, and 75 points. The Ducks should be able to take advantage of that as they rank 16th in the nation in offensive efficiency and hit 80 or more points 12 times in Pac 12 play. To put that in perspective, only 4 Pac 12 teams rank lower than 112th in defensive efficiency so they put up points facing much better defenses for the most part. Iona has scored at least 80 points in 17 of their last 27 games. Oregon can play any pace and with Iona wanting to push we think the Ducks will be fine with that. High scoring here. |
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03-17-17 | New Mexico State +12.5 v. Baylor | Top | 73-91 | Loss | -108 | 21 h 35 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* New Mexico State +12.5 over Baylor, Friday at 12:40 PM ET This total is set fairly at just 134 so a low scoring game is expected. Baylor leans heavily on their defense and they can struggle at times offensively. When they win, they don’t win big very often. In fact, of their last 12 wins, 11 have come by less than 12 points. One thing the Bears rely on is getting extra offensive opportunities by controlling the boards. That shouldn’t happen here as NMSU is a very solid rebounding team (18th nationally in offensive rebounding). The Aggies are a veteran team that is used to being in this environment. They have now been in the Big Dance 5 of the last 6 seasons. They have a solid backcourt (Taylor, Baker & Huggins) that have been logged a lot of minutes and won a lot of games over the last 2 to 3 seasons. This isn’t a flash in the pan type program at New Mexico State. This is the 6th straight year they’ve won at least 23 games. Their conference, the WAC, looks better than most may have anticipated based on early post-season results. Cal State Bakersfield, the team NMSU beat in the WAC final by 10, just went to Cal and won in the NIT. UMKC beat UW Green Bay in the NIT and Utah Valley won @ Georgia Southern in the CBI. Baylor is not a good 3-point shooting team and the NMSU defense ranks 8th nationally at defending the arc so we don’t expect much from deep from the Bears here. They’ll have to grind this one out inside the arc making it tough to pull away against a solid opponent. We think the Aggies match up very well here and we’ll take the points. |
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03-16-17 | VCU v. St. Mary's -4 | Top | 77-85 | Win | 100 | 31 h 5 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON St Mary's -4 over VCU, Thursday at 7:20 PM ET Really like the situation for St Mary’s here. They’ve been off since March 7th after losing to Gonzaga in the WCC final. VCU, on the other hand, just finished 3 games in 3 days on Sunday losing to URI in the A10 Final and now must play out west (game is in Salt Lake City) just a few days later. The Gaels are under rated in our opinion. They are one of the most balanced teams in the nation ranking in the top 26 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. They shoot the ball as well as any team in the nation ranking 14th nationally in 3 point FG% and 8th nationally in FG% inside the arc. They have just 4 losses on the season and 3 of them came at the hands of #1 seed Gonzaga. VCU is a team that likes to up tempo if possible so look for STM to frustrate them as they play with the 2nd slowest tempo in the nation. VCU is just an OK shooting team that really struggles from beyond the arc (241st nationally in 3 point %). They won’t get many 2nd chances here as the Gaels are the #1 defensive rebounding team in the nation. We’ll side with the MUCH better shooting team (and better numbers defensively as well for that matter) in a very good scheduling situation. St Marys rolls here. |
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03-16-17 | South Dakota State v. Gonzaga OVER 156 | Top | 46-66 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 40 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 156 - South Dakota State vs Gonzaga, Thursday at 2:00 PM ET Tonight we play OVER in the South Dakota St vs Gonzaga game. As you already know we've been dialed in on college totals this month and this is a great match up for an OVER wager. Both teams want to play fast and score points in a hurry. South Dakota St comes from the Summit League which is the fastest paced, has the highest offensive efficiency rating and the #1 ranked eFG% conference in all of college basketball. South Dakota St was the 7th fastest paced team in the league at 70.5 possession per game but was also the most efficient at 1.162 points per possession in conference play. They were also the 2nd most efficient shooting team in the league with an eFG% of 56.9% As good as the conference was offensively, it was just as bad defensively. Not one team allowed less than 1.000 points per possession in conference play this season and SDST gave up 1.121PPP which was 308th out of 351 schools. Again, the Jack Rabbits were solid offensively though, ranking 62nd nationally in OEFF at 1.108PPP. The second part of this equation is of course Gonzaga. The Zags have the 10th most efficient offensive in college hoops at 1.207 points per possession and are the 72nd fastest paced team. Their average length of a possession is just 15.7 seconds which is 33rd in the nation. They shoot it extremely well too by hitting 38.2% (45th) of their 3-point attempts and 58.4% (4th) of their 2’s. Gonzaga has the 2nd best eFG% percentage in college hoops at 58%. Earlier this season the Zags played South Dakota who is eerily similar to South Dakota State and that game ended 102-65 in Gonzaga’s favor. Gonzaga has scored 90+ points in 5 of their last 12 games and last year they put up 90+ in the opening round of the tourney so we know they won’t be shy here. Plenty of points here by both! OVER is the bet! |
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03-14-17 | Indiana v. Georgia Tech +3 | Top | 63-75 | Win | 100 | 7 h 49 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Georgia Tech +3 over Indiana, Tuesday at 9:00 PM on ESPN Can’t imagine IU is all that excited about being here. They had high hopes to start the season and actually topped the likes of UNC and Kansas in the first month of the season. Their high hopes came crashing down with a 7-11 Big Ten record and now a team that had big time NCAA aspirations, not just getting there but making a run, is stuck in the NIT. The Hoosiers were offered to host this game but declined due to renovations going on at Assembly Hall. You can bet Georgia Tech is thrilled to host a blue blood program like Indiana. The Jackets are no slouch as they played in the toughest conference in America and finished 7-2 at home in ACC beating the likes of North Carolina, Notre Dame, Florida State, and Syracuse. They face an IU team that is just 2-8 this year on the road with those wins coming by 4 @ Ohio State and by 3 @ Penn State. The Hoosiers offense can be potent but they are facing the 7th most efficient defense in the nation here. By comparison, the most comparable team in the Big Ten when it comes to defensive efficiency would be Wisconsin who ranks 8th nationally. The Badgers held Indiana to 60, 60, and 68 points in their 3 meetings. We think Tech does the same tonight and they pick up a home win. Not sure Indiana should even be favored in this one. |
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03-14-17 | Ole Miss v. Monmouth -3 | Top | 91-83 | Loss | -115 | 28 h 54 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Monmouth -3 over Ole Miss, Tuesday at 7:00 PM ET Monmouth was the best team in the MEAC all season long but lost in the conference tourney to drop to the NIT. The Hawks finished the conference with a record of 18-2 which was a full 4 games ahead of 2nd place St Peters. They finished 27-6 and their only non-conference losses came at North Carolina, at Syracuse, and at South Carolina (in OT). They beat two top 100 teams in the non-conference slate topping Memphis on the road and beating NCAA bound Princeton. That win over Princeton on December 20th was actually the last time Princeton lost as the Tigers have won 19 straight since. Monmouth is a team that is very solid on both sides of the ball (89th in offensive efficiency and 85th in defensive efficiency), they don’t turn the ball over, they shoot it very well from 3, and they make FT’s. Ole Miss has to be a bit disappointed they have to travel to a game like this to open the NIT. They were hoping for a home game. Getting to Monmouth (in New Jersey) could pose all kinds of problems for the Rebs as well with the huge winter storm hitting the east coast. The Rebels are not a great shooting team and on the road they really bottomed out hitting just 39% of their shots. This is a HUGE home game for Monmouth as they rarely host a big conference opponent. The last “big name” opponent the Hawks were able to host was back in 2015 when they faced off against in-state big boy Rutgers and lost by 1 point. Monmouth has won 24 of their last 27 home games and they get the win and cover here against what could be a disinterested Ole Miss team. |
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03-14-17 | Pistons v. Cavs -7 | Top | 96-128 | Win | 100 | 2 h 28 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: #532 @Cleveland Cavaliers (-7) over Detroit Pistons, 7PM ET - At first glance it looks like the Pistons plus the points would be the bet here but closer inspection tells us differently. The Cavs (and LeBron) are clearly a 'play on' team given the circumstances and you have to pick and choose your spots carefully considering they're over-valued by the oddsmakers on most occasions. Tonight the Cavs are on NBA TV which normally brings out the best of ego driven LBJ. Plus, these two teams just met in Detroit with the Pistons winning 106-101 as a +4.5-point underdog. Clearly, based on the line on that game the Cavs should be a much bigger favorite here. Cleveland is returning home after a 3-game road trip which saw them go 1-2 and prior to that they lost at home to the Heat. All those factors will have the Cavs on top of their game tonight against a poor traveling Pistons team (11-21 SU on the road.) Cleveland is 26-7 SU at home and have the 4th best point differential of +8.9PPG at home in the NBA. The last time these two teams met here the Cavs won by 23. Expect another big win tonight given the circumstances. |
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03-11-17 | Marshall v. Middle Tennessee UNDER 159 | Top | 72-83 | Win | 100 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
We will play UNDER 159 in the Marshall versus Middle Tennessee State game at 8:30PM ET tonight. We love this spot as several dynamics clearly favor a lower scoring game in this Conference USA championship game. Everyone knows about Marshall's game yesterday where they 'went off' from beyond the arc making 19 of 35 3-pointers against LA Tech. At halftime in that game Marshall scored 49 points and 42 came from 3. With this being their 4th game in four days, and four starters logging over 35 minutes yesterday, (3 had 33+ minutes the day before) we don't expect jumpers to be falling for the Herd against Middle Tennessee State today. Not to mention they WON'T get any second chance baskets as MTSU will DOMINATE the glass as they did in the two regular season meetings (+34 rebounds ). The Blue Raiders are also the 53rd best 3-point field goal percentage defense in the entire nation so Marshall isn't going 'off' from beyond the arc. In the two regular season meetings they held Marshall to just 295 and 26% shooting from 3. Middle Tennessee State is 1st in C-USA in defensive efficiency defense allowing just. 937 points per possession this year and 2nd in eFG% D at 46.6%. MTSU also knows they need to dictate the tempo in this game and the dominate team normally gets their way. The Blue Raiders are the 13th slowest team in the conference and 325th in the nation. In the two meetings this season the oddsmakers posted totals of 158 and 164.5 so we are still getting value at the current price even though the line has dropped. Our math model suggests just 150 total points in this contest and we agree whole heartedly! |
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03-11-17 | Colorado State v. Nevada -4.5 | Top | 71-79 | Win | 100 | 6 h 0 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Nevada -4.5 over Colorado State, Saturday at 6 PM ET This is a tough situation for CSU. One of the thinnest teams in the nation playing only 7 players for the most part, the Rams are playing their 3rd game in 3 days. On top of that, they got the late game last night vs San Diego State. Their game didn’t start until 10 PM Pacific time and didn’t get over until after midnight. That means they probably didn’t get back to their hotel and settled down after a big win until 2 AM or later. Now they play today at 3 PM Pacific time making this a very rough spot for them. Nevada won the early game vs Fresno and had time to wind down and settle in much earlier. The Wolfpack have been the best team in the conference pretty much all year. They rank #1 in the MWC in offensive efficiency, #2 in defensive efficiency, #2 in offensive turnover %, #1 in defensive rebounding, #1 defending the 3, and #1 in steals. These two met a week ago in a game that decided the regular season title and Nevada won by 13. Now with CSU in a much more precarious spot today, we look for another easy win by Nevada. |
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ASA Basketball Top Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
12-04-17 | Magic v. Hornets OVER 218 | Top | 94-104 | Loss | -115 | 3 h 52 m | Show |
12-02-17 | Green Bay v. Belmont -14.5 | Top | 75-86 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 11 m | Show |
12-01-17 | Pelicans -2.5 v. Jazz | Top | 108-114 | Loss | -114 | 6 h 54 m | Show |
11-30-17 | South Carolina v. Temple +1.5 | Top | 60-76 | Win | 100 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
11-29-17 | UNLV v. Northern Iowa | Top | 68-77 | Win | 100 | 4 h 46 m | Show |
11-28-17 | Wizards v. Wolves OVER 211 | Top | 92-89 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 10 m | Show |
11-28-17 | Tenn Chattanooga v. Akron UNDER 134.5 | Top | 70-75 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 53 m | Show |
11-26-17 | Texas A&M v. USC -3 | Top | 75-59 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
11-25-17 | Spurs v. Hornets | Top | 106-86 | Win | 100 | 5 h 27 m | Show |
11-25-17 | Loyola-Chicago -5.5 v. Kent State | Top | 75-60 | Win | 100 | 4 h 16 m | Show |
11-22-17 | Detroit v. St. Louis -11 | Top | 72-70 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
11-21-17 | Samford +11 v. Valparaiso | Top | 67-88 | Loss | -125 | 6 h 11 m | Show |
11-17-17 | Knicks +8 v. Raptors | Top | 84-107 | Loss | -107 | 2 h 59 m | Show |
11-15-17 | Magic +5 v. Blazers | Top | 94-99 | Push | 0 | 7 h 3 m | Show |
11-14-17 | Raptors +6.5 v. Rockets | Top | 129-113 | Win | 100 | 6 h 19 m | Show |
11-13-17 | Wolves -3.5 v. Jazz | Top | 109-98 | Win | 100 | 5 h 58 m | Show |
11-10-17 | Magic -3.5 v. Suns | Top | 128-112 | Win | 100 | 8 h 11 m | Show |
11-09-17 | Thunder v. Nuggets UNDER 216.5 | Top | 94-102 | Win | 100 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
11-06-17 | Heat +15.5 v. Warriors | Top | 80-97 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 37 m | Show |
10-30-17 | Warriors -5 v. Clippers | Top | 141-113 | Win | 100 | 6 h 21 m | Show |
10-25-17 | Jazz v. Suns UNDER 204 | Top | 88-97 | Win | 100 | 5 h 15 m | Show |
10-20-17 | Celtics +2.5 v. 76ers | Top | 102-92 | Win | 100 | 5 h 46 m | Show |
06-12-17 | Cavs v. Warriors -8 | Top | 120-129 | Win | 100 | 7 h 49 m | Show |
06-09-17 | Warriors v. Cavs UNDER 229 | Top | 116-137 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 53 m | Show |
06-07-17 | Warriors v. Cavs +4 | Top | 118-113 | Loss | -115 | 30 h 21 m | Show |
06-04-17 | Cavs v. Warriors -8.5 | Top | 113-132 | Win | 100 | 34 h 32 m | Show |
06-01-17 | Cavs v. Warriors OVER 225.5 | Top | 91-113 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 45 m | Show |
05-25-17 | Cavs v. Celtics UNDER 216 | Top | 135-102 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
05-23-17 | Celtics v. Cavs OVER 215 | Top | 99-112 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 41 m | Show |
05-21-17 | Celtics v. Cavs OVER 215 | Top | 111-108 | Win | 100 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
05-20-17 | Warriors v. Spurs UNDER 214 | Top | 120-108 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
05-19-17 | Cavs -5 v. Celtics | Top | 130-86 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
05-17-17 | Cavs -4 v. Celtics | Top | 117-104 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
05-16-17 | Spurs v. Warriors UNDER 210 | Top | 100-136 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 5 m | Show |
05-15-17 | Wizards v. Celtics OVER 210.5 | Top | 105-115 | Win | 100 | 6 h 45 m | Show |
05-14-17 | Spurs v. Warriors -9.5 | Top | 111-113 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 14 m | Show |
05-12-17 | Celtics v. Wizards OVER 216 | Top | 91-92 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
05-11-17 | Spurs v. Rockets OVER 213.5 | Top | 114-75 | Loss | -107 | 20 h 19 m | Show |
05-10-17 | Wizards v. Celtics OVER 215 | Top | 101-123 | Win | 100 | 27 h 48 m | Show |
05-09-17 | Rockets v. Spurs OVER 213.5 | Top | 107-110 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
05-08-17 | Warriors v. Jazz OVER 206 | Top | 121-95 | Win | 100 | 5 h 12 m | Show |
05-07-17 | Cavs v. Raptors UNDER 213 | Top | 109-102 | Win | 100 | 4 h 41 m | Show |
05-05-17 | Spurs v. Rockets -5 | Top | 103-92 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
05-04-17 | Celtics v. Wizards -5 | Top | 89-116 | Win | 100 | 27 h 43 m | Show |
05-02-17 | Jazz v. Warriors -13 | Top | 94-106 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
05-02-17 | Wizards v. Celtics UNDER 218 | Top | 119-129 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 44 m | Show |
05-01-17 | Raptors v. Cavs -6.5 | Top | 105-116 | Win | 100 | 4 h 14 m | Show |
04-30-17 | Wizards v. Celtics OVER 216 | Top | 111-123 | Win | 100 | 3 h 41 m | Show |
04-28-17 | Celtics v. Bulls UNDER 204 | Top | 105-83 | Win | 100 | 4 h 19 m | Show |
04-27-17 | Raptors v. Bucks UNDER 195.5 | Top | 92-89 | Win | 100 | 4 h 39 m | Show |
04-25-17 | Jazz v. Clippers UNDER 196 | Top | 96-92 | Win | 100 | 6 h 58 m | Show |
04-24-17 | Warriors v. Blazers OVER 220 | Top | 128-103 | Win | 100 | 6 h 54 m | Show |
04-22-17 | Spurs -3.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 108-110 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
04-20-17 | Raptors v. Bucks -1.5 | Top | 77-104 | Win | 100 | 6 h 28 m | Show |
04-19-17 | Blazers v. Warriors UNDER 220 | Top | 81-110 | Win | 100 | 6 h 24 m | Show |
04-18-17 | Bucks v. Raptors OVER 194 | Top | 100-106 | Win | 100 | 6 h 27 m | Show |
04-17-17 | Pacers v. Cavs OVER 208 | Top | 111-117 | Win | 100 | 5 h 32 m | Show |
04-15-17 | Bucks v. Raptors -7 | Top | 97-83 | Loss | -107 | 6 h 37 m | Show |
04-11-17 | Nuggets v. Mavs -2 | Top | 109-91 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 51 m | Show |
04-07-17 | Thunder v. Suns OVER 227.5 | Top | 99-120 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 8 m | Show |
04-05-17 | Mavs v. Clippers OVER 202.5 | Top | 101-112 | Win | 100 | 7 h 24 m | Show |
04-04-17 | Blazers v. Jazz -6 | Top | 87-106 | Win | 100 | 5 h 50 m | Show |
04-03-17 | North Carolina v. Gonzaga UNDER 155 | Top | 71-65 | Win | 100 | 5 h 10 m | Show |
04-01-17 | Oregon +5 v. North Carolina | Top | 76-77 | Win | 100 | 52 h 47 m | Show |
04-01-17 | South Carolina v. Gonzaga UNDER 138 | Top | 73-77 | Loss | -105 | 96 h 42 m | Show |
03-31-17 | Pacers v. Raptors -5.5 | Top | 100-111 | Win | 100 | 5 h 46 m | Show |
03-30-17 | Georgia Tech +4.5 v. TCU | Top | 56-88 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 49 m | Show |
03-28-17 | CS Bakersfield +2.5 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 61-76 | Loss | -102 | 6 h 41 m | Show |
03-27-17 | Pelicans v. Jazz UNDER 199 | Top | 100-108 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 19 m | Show |
03-26-17 | South Carolina +3.5 v. Florida | Top | 77-70 | Win | 100 | 3 h 38 m | Show |
03-25-17 | Raptors v. Mavs OVER 193.5 | Top | 94-86 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 51 m | Show |
03-25-17 | Xavier v. Gonzaga UNDER 145.5 | Top | 59-83 | Win | 100 | 7 h 57 m | Show |
03-24-17 | Wisconsin v. Florida UNDER 132 | Top | 83-84 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 59 m | Show |
03-24-17 | UCLA v. Kentucky +1.5 | Top | 75-86 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
03-24-17 | South Carolina v. Baylor UNDER 135 | Top | 70-50 | Win | 100 | 46 h 5 m | Show |
03-24-17 | Nets v. Wizards UNDER 222 | Top | 108-129 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 45 m | Show |
03-24-17 | Butler v. North Carolina UNDER 153 | Top | 80-92 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 24 m | Show |
03-23-17 | Xavier v. Arizona UNDER 145 | Top | 73-71 | Win | 100 | 8 h 5 m | Show |
03-23-17 | Suns v. Nets UNDER 226.5 | Top | 98-126 | Win | 100 | 4 h 60 m | Show |
03-23-17 | West Virginia +3.5 v. Gonzaga | Top | 58-61 | Win | 100 | 50 h 34 m | Show |
03-22-17 | Illinois-Chicago v. Coastal Carolina -3.5 | Top | 78-89 | Win | 100 | 25 h 58 m | Show |
03-21-17 | Bucks v. Blazers OVER 207.5 | Top | 93-90 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 2 m | Show |
03-21-17 | Georgia Tech v. Ole Miss -5 | Top | 74-66 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 50 m | Show |
03-20-17 | Jazz v. Pacers OVER 192.5 | Top | 100-107 | Win | 100 | 4 h 6 m | Show |
03-20-17 | UCF v. Illinois State -4.5 | Top | 63-62 | Loss | -107 | 5 h 42 m | Show |
03-19-17 | Cincinnati +4 v. UCLA | Top | 67-79 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
03-19-17 | Rhode Island v. Oregon -5 | Top | 72-75 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 17 m | Show |
03-18-17 | Northwestern v. Gonzaga -11 | Top | 73-79 | Loss | -107 | 21 h 27 m | Show |
03-17-17 | Marquette v. South Carolina OVER 141 | Top | 73-93 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
03-17-17 | Troy State +20 v. Duke | Top | 65-87 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 34 m | Show |
03-17-17 | UC-Davis v. Kansas -22.5 | Top | 62-100 | Win | 100 | 4 h 5 m | Show |
03-17-17 | Iona v. Oregon OVER 152 | Top | 77-93 | Win | 100 | 22 h 44 m | Show |
03-17-17 | New Mexico State +12.5 v. Baylor | Top | 73-91 | Loss | -108 | 21 h 35 m | Show |
03-16-17 | VCU v. St. Mary's -4 | Top | 77-85 | Win | 100 | 31 h 5 m | Show |
03-16-17 | South Dakota State v. Gonzaga OVER 156 | Top | 46-66 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 40 m | Show |
03-14-17 | Indiana v. Georgia Tech +3 | Top | 63-75 | Win | 100 | 7 h 49 m | Show |
03-14-17 | Ole Miss v. Monmouth -3 | Top | 91-83 | Loss | -115 | 28 h 54 m | Show |
03-14-17 | Pistons v. Cavs -7 | Top | 96-128 | Win | 100 | 2 h 28 m | Show |
03-11-17 | Marshall v. Middle Tennessee UNDER 159 | Top | 72-83 | Win | 100 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
03-11-17 | Colorado State v. Nevada -4.5 | Top | 71-79 | Win | 100 | 6 h 0 m | Show |