Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
02-16-21 | Dayton v. Rhode Island -3 | Top | 89-91 | Loss | -112 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
#612 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Rhode Island -3 over Dayton, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Here we have a team that has a 9-12 overall record favored by a full 3 points over a team that has an 11-6 overall record. Hmmm… We like the home favorite here. Rhode Island is coming in off 4 straight losses and they are in desperate need of a win. It’s their home finale and we expect the Rams to play very well. The opener of that 4 games losing streak for URI was a 67-56 loss @ Dayton, tonight’s opponent. In that loss the Rams top player Fatts Russell (15 PPG) was battling an injury and played a season low 19 minutes and scored a season low 4 points. HE missed URI’s next game which was a 1-point home loss vs VCU, the A10’s 1st place team and 2nd highest rated team. The Rams also lost by 7 @ St Louis in their most recent game and were very competitive vs the top rated team in the conference. Russell was back in the line up and they are back at full strength. This team is better than their record. Prior to their 4 games losing streak this team was on a 6-3 run including a road win VCU and St Bonnies (3rd rated team in the A10). In their first meeting on January 30th, the Rams made just 38% of their shots and 23% of their 3’s with the best player banged up. The Flyers have played 5 road games this year and they are 2-3 in those contests with one win coming in OT and they other coming by 5 points vs a St Louis team that was playing their first game in over a month due to covid. After this one Dayton has three HUGE games on deck vs St Louis, St Bonnies and VCU, the 3 best teams in the conference. Having already beaten URI, we wouldn’t be surprised if they were peaking ahead at that stretch of games. Rhode Island is the better defensive team ranking 33rd nationally in efficiency and they send teams to the FT line fewer than any other team in the A10. Big home game for the Rams and we like them to get the win and cover. |
|||||||
02-15-21 | Heat +3.5 v. Clippers | Top | 118-125 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Miami Heat +3.5 over LA Clippers, 10 PM ET - The line on this game suggests Paul George won’t be in the lineup for the Clippers tonight and the Heat, who are nearly back to full strength, will take advantage. Miami has struggled to a 11-15 SU record but they’ve been hit harder by injuries to their starting lineup with Butler, Herro, Dragic and Bradley all missing extended time. Butler and Herro are back and the Heat have won 4 of their last five games. In their last five games the Heat have the best overall defensive efficiency numbers allowing just 1.029-points per possession. The Clippers have the best overall offensive efficiency numbers in the NBA which can largely be attributed to great 3-point shooting. We feel LA’s hot shooting must regress and is unsustainable for a long period of time. The Clippers are shooting over 42% from deep this season which is significantly better than the league average of 36.8%. Miami is allowing near league average in 3-point percentage shooting by opponents this season, but injuries have had an impact. Last year the Heat were the 5th best team in the NBA defending the 3-point line. The Clippers have won 7 of their last ten games but NONE of those have come against a team with a winning record. Miami is off a loss (34-16-1 ATS run off a loss) in Utah in their previous game while the Clippers have a HUGE two game set against the Jazz next. |
|||||||
02-15-21 | East Tennessee State v. Chattanooga UNDER 134 | Top | 51-53 | Win | 100 | 21 h 38 m | Show |
#845/846 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 134 Points – East Tennessee State @ Chattanooga, Monday at 7 PM ET - These two met on February 6th and Chattanooga pulled the upset 67-65 putting up 132 total points. It was on pace for just 120 at halftime and with 10 minutes remaining in the game these two had put up just 82 total points. They put up a whopping 50 points in the final 10 minutes of the game, including 18 points in the last 2:30 of the game. They both eclipsed their season averages in offensive PPP and even after all of that it still went UNDER the total. These are 2 slow paced teams ranking 10th (ETSU) and 8th (Chattanooga) in tempo in Southern Conference play (10 team league). ETSU has gone UNDER the total in 6 of their last 7 games and if we throw out their games vs Citadel, Samford, and VMI (3 fastest paced teams in the league) they are averaging 131 total points and they’ve topped 134 points (tonight’s total) only twice in those 9 remaining games. Chattanooga has gone UNDER in 5 of their last 7 games and they just put up 136 total points over the weekend vs the Citadel who is the fastest paced team in the league AND the worst defensive team in the conference. Now they have a rematch vs an ETSU defense that ranks 3rd in the league and just allowed 49 points to Wofford, one of the better offensive teams in the SOCON. We think this one will be a grinder with neither getting to 70 points. We like the UNDER |
|||||||
02-14-21 | Spurs v. Hornets UNDER 228.5 | Top | 122-110 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 228.5 San Antonio Spurs @ Charlotte Hornets, 7PM ET - These two teams have been playing at a faster rate lately but their offensive efficiency numbers haven’t been very good for the season. The Spurs are the 21st worst offensive efficiency team in the NBA while the Hornets are 18th. San Antonio is the 20th ranked shooting team in the league and 17th from beyond the arc. Charlotte doesn’t shoot it much better at 45.7% overall (18th) but do hit 38% of their 3’s which is top ten. San Antonio has a top ten defensive efficiency rating allowing just 1.104-points per possession on the season. Charlotte is average in DEFF, ranking 16th at 1.118PPP. The Hornets have been much better at home defensively though with the 11th best DEFF and the Spurs in their last five games move up the rankings to the 5th best defensive efficiency number. The Hornets are on a 7-3-1 Under run at home as a dog while the Spurs on a 7-3 Under run when favored. Our computers project 223 total points here and we couldn’t agree more. |
|||||||
02-14-21 | Minnesota v. Maryland UNDER 138 | Top | 59-72 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
#825/826 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 138 Points – Minnesota @ Maryland, Sunday at 7 PM ET - These two met on January 23rd in Minneapolis and Maryland came away with a 63-49 win (112 total points). The Terps, the 2nd slowest tempo team in the Big 10, slowed the game down as they have done for much of the season. The two teams combined to take only 91 shots and made only 13 combined 3-pointers. We see a similar situation here with a low possession game. Neither team is great offensively as they rank 8th and 12th in the league in both offensive efficiency and eFG%. The Gophers are the worst 3-point shooting team in the Big 10 and Maryland ranks 7th in that category. The Terps offense has averaged only 61 PPG over their last 9 conference games and Minnesota on the road has put up just 64 PPG this season. Maryland’s offense has not topped 1.00 PPP in 6 consecutive games. Defensively they have held their last 9 Big 10 opponents to under their offensive PPP average. The Gophers have gone UNDER the total in 8 of their last 10 games and Maryland has stayed UNDER in 4 of their last 5. We don’t see either team getting to 70 in this game and we’ll grab the UNDER. |
|||||||
02-13-21 | Weber State +1 v. Montana | Top | 91-82 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
#687 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Weber State +1 over Montana, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET - These two played on Thursday night and Weber State lost 80-67 as a 1-point favorite @ Montana. That loss broke a 4 game winning streak for Weber and they are ready to get back at it on Saturday. The Wildcats come into this game ranked #2 in the Big Sky Conference in offensive efficiency and #3 in defensive efficiency. You wouldn’t have noticed that on Thursday as they allowed Montana to shoot over 50% and 1.18 PPP well above their season averages of 45% and 0.98 PPP. On the other end of the court Weber’s offense (which averages 50% from the field on the season) shot just 44% (only 21% from 3-point range) and averaged just 0.99 PPP. So we have the better team (11-5 overall / 6-3 in conference) that played below their normal expectation with a chance at quick revenge vs a team that exceeded their expectation. We like this situation. Montana has been in this spot a lot recently and failed miserably. In each of their last 3 second night of back to backs vs the same opponent, they won the first night and lost the 2nd night. Those 3 losses came at the hands of Northern Arizona, Sacramento State, and Portland State, all 3 ranked well below this Weber State team. The Wildcats have been solid after a subpar performance covering their last 4 games following a loss. Montana, as we mentioned, is the opposite going 0-5 ATS the game following a SU win. We expect Weber State to win this one so we’ll lay it on the road. |
|||||||
02-12-21 | Pelicans +3 v. Mavs | Top | 130-143 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* New Orleans +3 @ Dallas Mavericks, 7:35 PM ET - The bet here is New Orleans. If we look at the full season the Pelicans have the 8th best overall offensive efficiency rating in the NBA and in their last five games, they improve to 2nd overall. On the season the Mavs have the 15th best OEFF, or an average number by league standards. In their last five games though the Mavs have played better than average with the 4th best offensive efficiency numbers. The difference is the Pelicans improvement offensively in their last five games came against three teams that rank in the top 10 of the NBA in defensive efficiency. In comparison the Mavs played three games against teams that rank in the bottom half of the league in DEFF so their improvement shouldn’t come as a shock. Defensively Dallas has been far worse than New Orleans in their last five games as the Mavs are allowing 1.251-points per possession which is the second worst number in the NBA. Both teams are 4-1 SU their last five games but again, the Pels wins came against better overall competition AND they have a +9.6PPG differential compared to the Mavs negative or minus -3.4PPG. As a dog of +4.5 or less the Pelicans are 5-2 ATS this season and they’ve covered 4 straight as a Dog. As a favorite in that same price range the Mavs are just 4-6 ATS. It hasn’t been profitable to play the Mavericks at home in recent times as they sport a 5-16 ATS record at home in their last 21. |
|||||||
02-12-21 | St Bonaventure v. VCU -3 | Top | 64-67 | Push | 0 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
#866 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* VCU -3 over St Bonaventure, Friday at 7:00 PM ET - These two met a few weeks ago with VCU traveling to St Bonnies as a 2-point underdog. Everything looked great for the Rams at halftime as they jumped out to a 15-point lead scoring 40 points in the first half. Then came the VCU collapse. After scoring 40 points in the first half, they scored only 14 points in the second half and their 15 point lead at the break turned into a 16 point loss. VCU has won 4 straight since that loss and needless to say they’ve been waiting for this rematch. A win here and the Rams jump St Bonnies moving into first place in the Atlantic 10. Their defense has been lights out since that loss allowing 43, 62, 62, and 67 points over their last 4 games. The Rams are #2 in the A10 in defensive efficiency and #1 in defensive TO rate, blocked shots, and steals. At home this season they are averaging 78 PPG and allowing just 61 PPG. St Bonnies is a very solid team but they’ve played a very easy road schedule to date. The Bonnies are 3-2 SU on the road in league play but 2 of those wins came vs Fordham (last ranked team in the conference) and Duquesne (9th ranked team in the conference). Their most recent road game was @ St Louis who didn’t play a game for nearly a month (off from Dec 23 through Jan 26) and the Billikens beat St Bonaventure 70-59. Despite their easy road slate they are averaging just 63 PPG away from home while allowing 62 PPG. The favorite has covered 5 straight in this series and last year when these two met @ VCU, the Rams rolled up a huge 91-63 win. While we don’t expect a blowout here, we do like VCU to cover this small number at home. |
|||||||
02-11-21 | Raptors v. Celtics -3.5 | Top | 106-120 | Win | 100 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -3.5 over Toronto Raptors, 7:35 PM ET - This is a great spot to fade the Raptors and back the Celtics. This is a fill in game tonight and the Raptors are in a horrible scheduling situation with this being the backend of a second consecutive games. This will also be Toronto’s 5th game in just seven days. The Raptors played their starters extended minutes last night in their fast paced game against the Wizards and fatigue is going to be a factor. Boston has last night off and is coming off a pair of losses against two of the better teams in the West the Suns and Jazz so you can bet the C’s will be focused here. Boston is a perfect 3-0 ATS at home this season when coming off a SU loss. The Celtics have the 10th best home court point differential in the NBA at +4.4PPG and are 4-1 ATS as a home chalk this season. Boston has covered 7 of the last nine meetings and our metrics have them winning this game by 10+ points. |
|||||||
02-11-21 | Purdue v. Minnesota -3.5 | Top | 68-71 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
#738 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota -3.5 over Purdue, Thursday at 5 PM ET - The Gophers have one of the largest home/road dichotomies in college basketball. They are 0-6 on the road but a near perfect 12-1 at home. In their home games they have a +13 point differential and they are allowing opponents to hit just 38% of their shot attempts. All but one of their Big 10 home wins have come by double digits. The Gophs are just 2-5 their last 7 games and this is a huge game in regards to their NCAA tourney hopes. It’s pretty much a must win game for Minnesota. These 2 met a few weeks ago in West Lafayette and the Boilers were a 2.5 point favorite. They rolled to any easy 81-62 win scoring 1.29 PPP which drastically outperformed their Big 10 season average of 1.02 PPP. The Boilers were also +11 makes at the FT line and hit 53% of their three pointers. Basically everything went right for Purdue on offense but we don’t expect that to happen again on the road where they shoot just 42% and they have a -2 point differential. The Gophs have already beaten many of the Big 10’s best here at home and beating them handily. They topped Michigan here by 16, OSU by 17 and Iowa by 7. Purdue is just 3-5 SU this year on the road and we expect a huge effort from Minny in a must win game with 2 of their next 3 games coming on the road where they’ve struggled. Low line here in our opinion meaning Minnesota just has to win at home. Minny has covered 7 of their last 8 home games and we’ll lay the bucket with the Gophers. |
|||||||
02-10-21 | Hawks v. Mavs UNDER 233.5 | Top | 117-118 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 233.5 Atlanta Hawks vs. Dallas Mavericks, 7:35PM ET - We have to bet the value here and play Under. These two teams just met a week ago and the oddsmaker set a number of 223 on the game and now this game is a full 10-points higher. In the meeting last week these two teams scored 238 total points but both teams shot extremely well in that game and field goal attempts (+8 combined for the game) for both teams were above normal. Both teams are in the bottom half of the league in pace or tempo and Dallas is average in offensive efficiency. The Hawks are 11th in the league in OEFF but in their last five games they are 17th and their scoring is down 2PPG. The Hawks are on a 6-1 Under streak their last seven road games while Dallas is 7-3 to the Under this season against the East. |
|||||||
02-10-21 | Rutgers v. Iowa -6.5 | Top | 66-79 | Win | 100 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
#656 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Iowa -6.5 over Rutgers, Wed at 7:30 PM ET - Great value on Iowa here. They are in a bit of a funk losing 4 of their last 5 but they are still a top notch team and we expect them to play very well at home in this one. The Hawkeyes were just favored by 5 at home last week vs Ohio State (a team we have rated in the top 5 nationally) and now they are laying only 6 (as of Tues evening) vs Rutgers (a team we have power rated 30th). Iowa was favored by 4 at Rutgers earlier this year (won 77-75) telling us this number should be higher. They were favored by 10.5 at home vs Indiana in late January and we have the Hoosiers and Rutgers rated nearly dead even. Not only that, we are getting a very good Iowa team that is now backed into a corner so to speak after a string of losses. None of those losses, with the exception of their home loss vs Indiana, were bad losses so to speak. The Hawkeyes lost @ Indiana in OT over the weekend in a game they led by 10 in the second half and still led with under 2:00 minutes remaining. The other 2 losses were at home by 4 vs a very good OSU team (Iowa led 10 in 2nd half) along with a 5 point setback at Illinois. The Scarlet Knights have won 4 straight but all 4 have come vs teams ranked in the lower half of the Big 10. On the road they’ve played only 1 team this season that currently ranks in the top 6 of the conference and that was a 12 point loss @ OSU. They thrive on getting extra possessions by turning teams over but Iowa is the #1 team in the conference at not turning the ball over. Iowa is the most efficient offensive team in the nationally averaging 1.25 PPP and hit almost 40% of their 3’s in conference play. They should get to the line a lot in this game as Rutgers tends to foul quite a bit and while the Knights rarely get to the line (last in the Big 10) when they do it’s not pretty (60% as a team). We like Iowa to get rolling offensively at home and win this one by double digits. |
|||||||
02-09-21 | Rockets v. Pelicans UNDER 226.5 | Top | 101-130 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 226.5 Houston Rockets @ New Orleans Pelicans, 7:35 PM ET - These same two teams squared off Jan 30th with the two teams scoring 238 total points. Both teams attempted 91 and 92 field goals in that game which are above league average and more than each teams 87FGA average this season. With this being such a close turnaround meeting we expect both teams defenses to outperform the offenses. The Pelicans are one of the slower paced teams in the NBA (20th) and the RESTED home team so we expect them to dictate tempo. The Rockets are playing the second night of a back to back and 3rd in four nights so you can bet they aren’t interested in playing fast. The Rockets are the second most efficient defense in the NBA behind the Lakers and have held their last five opponents to 107.6PPG. The Pelicans have put up some impressive offensive numbers in their last three games but none of those defenses are as good as the one they’ll see tonight. Lastly, in the meeting on Jan 30th the oddsmakers set a Total of 223.5 on the game and it went well Over the number so why no adjustment here? Bet Under! |
|||||||
02-09-21 | VCU v. Dayton +1.5 | Top | 76-67 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
#636 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Dayton +1.5 over VCU, Tuesday at 5 PM ET - These two met on January 23rd and VCU dealt the Flyers their most embarrassing loss of the season winning 66-43. It was their worst defeat in 3 seasons and after the game Dayton head coach Anthony Grant mentioned his disappointment in how his team handled adversity during that contest. Dayton had a school record low 13 points at halftime and the Flyers made only 17 shots the entire game including just 3 three pointers. That wasn’t indicative of this Dayton offense as they rank 2nd in the Atlantic 10 in both 3-point FG% and 2-point FG%. It was simply a terrible performance and a bad spot for Dayton as they were facing a VCU team that blew a 15 point halftime lead and lost by 16 to St Bonnies just a few days earlier. They were ready to play off that loss and it showed. Now we’re getting Dayton as a home dog which we think is some solid value in this spot. They are playing well having won 3 of 4 since that loss @ VCU including wins over St Louis (the highest rated team in the A10) & Rhode Island. They are also at home now where they have won 25 of their last 27 games. The Flyers are shooting 50% overall at home this year and nearly 41% from beyond the arc. VCU is coming off a huge road win last week as they beat Rhode Island 63-62. URI’s best player, Fats Russell (14 PPG), didn’t play in the game and it still went to the wire. In fact, Rhode Island led late and a 3 pointer by VCU with 5 seconds remaining gave them 1-point lead. URI then drew a foul with 1 second left but missed the front end of the bonus giving VCU the 1-point win. It looks like the Rams will be at less than full strength in this game with two of their key reserves, Curry & Clark, both injured and possibly out. You can bet Dayton will be more than ready for this rematch and we expect a much better shooting performance giving them the outright home win in this one. |
|||||||
02-08-21 | Cavs +7.5 v. Suns | Top | 113-119 | Win | 100 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Cleveland Cavaliers +7.5 over Phoenix Suns, 9 PM ET - The situation is right for a Cavs cover here with the Suns coming off a big win over the Celtics and have a marquee game on deck against the Bucks. The Suns are 6-4 SU at home with a solid point differential of +6.2PPG but even at that number it’s still not enough to cover this spread. Three of the Suns home wins have come by less than 10-points. Cleveland comes into this game on a three-game losing streak, but the losses came against the Bucks twice and the Clippers who are easily two of the best teams in the NBA, and while the Suns are good, they are not on that level yet. The Cavs have the worst road point differential in the NBA but if you eliminate one horrible 38-point loss in Boston that number drops significantly to just -7PPG. Phoenix is in unfamiliar territory here as this big of a favorite as they’ve laid 7 or more points only two other times this season going 1-1 ATS. We expect a letdown by Phoenix here and a much better effort by the Cavs off several poor showings. Bet Cleveland. |
|||||||
02-08-21 | Oklahoma State v. Kansas -4.5 | Top | 66-78 | Win | 100 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
#864 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Kansas -4.5 over Oklahoma State, Monday at 9 PM ET - This situation sets up very nicely for KU at home. The Jayhawks are coming off a double digit loss on Saturday @ West Virginia. They are a bit undervalued at home here because they have lost 5 of their last 7 games, however all 5 of those losses come on the road. The fact is, Kansas is much better at home where they are 8-1 this season and 42-2 their last 44 at Allen Fieldhouse. These two met in mid January and KU was favored by 3.5 @ Okie State and now laying right around that number in this game because of their recent 2-5 run. The Jayhawks lost the first meeting 75-70 and they were -11 FT attempts in that game and they were throwing up bricks from deep hitting only 23% of their 3 pointers. Even with that Kansas still led by 3 points with just over 1:00 minute remaining in that road loss. The Cowboys are in a rough spot for a tough road game. They played host to Texas on Saturday and won a thriller in double OT. Three of their four starters logged 40+ minutes on Saturday and they were without one of the better players Moncrieffe (foot) who averages 10 PPG & 5 RPG and he is questionable again on Monday. The Longhorns took OSU to double OT on the road despite making only 20 of their 79 shots (25%) and Texas was a ridiculously poor 5 of 35 from deep (14%). OSU scores 56% of their points inside the arc in Big 12 play but Kansas is #1 in the conference at 2-point defense allowing just 45% shooting by opponents. In the first match up the Cowboys only made 47% of their 2-point shots but were able to make up for it at the FT line in a tight game. This should be a tired team and they most likely won’t have as many calls go their way @ Allen Fieldhouse. While Kansas is down a notch from past years, they are still a very solid team and they’ve dominated this series at home going 23-4 SU their last 27 home meetings with OSU. Last year they were favored by 15 here vs the Cowboys and won by 25. Now we're getting the Jayhawks at just -4.5 a year later in a favorable situation. We like Kansas to cover. |
|||||||
02-07-21 | Boise State -3.5 v. Nevada | Top | 62-73 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 50 m | Show |
#821 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Boise State -3.5 over Nevada, Sunday at 4 PM ET - These two met on Friday night and Nevada pulled the upset beating Boise 74-72 as a 4.5 point underdog. It was just the 3rd loss of the year for the Broncos who now stand at 14-3 overall. This situation sets up very similarly to a situation Boise encountered just over a week ago. They were @ Colorado State who is rated right around 30 spots higher than this Nevada team and Boise lost the opener of a 2 game series as a 3-point favorite. They bounced back on the road 2 days later and took out CSU by 8 points. When the Broncos met this Nevada team on Friday night, they led nearly the entire game. They were up by 5 at half and Nevada took their FIRST lead of the 2nd half with under 1:00 minute remaining in the game and went on to win by 2. The Wolfpack shot lights out for the game at 53% and still trailed nearly the entire way. It was Nevada’s 2nd highest shooting percentage of the entire year in MWC play (13 games). Can they pull that off again on Sunday? We highly doubt it as we expect Boise, who ranks 2nd in the conference in defensive efficiency and eFG% defense, to clamp down on that end of the court after playing poorly on Friday. While the Broncos defense is one of the best in the MWC, their offense IS the best in the conference as they average 1.16 PPP in league play (1st in the conference). On Friday they were solid on that end of the court (1.07 PPP) but still well below their average. The Broncos also turned the ball over on nearly 20% of their possessions which is very unlike they as they rank 1st in the conference in that category as well coughing it up just on 15% of possessions. So in other words, Nevada played a great game while Boise underperformed in most of their stats and the game still went to the wire. The Broncos are 13-3 ATS the game following a SU loss dating back to last year and we fully expect a top notch performance on Sunday. Lay the small number with Boise State. |
|||||||
02-07-21 | Celtics v. Suns -3 | Top | 91-100 | Win | 100 | 7 h 34 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns -3 over Boston Celtics, 2 PM ET - It would be interesting to flip these two teams into the other conference and see where they stand. As it is right now the Suns are a mid-to-lower playoff team in the West while Boston is considered a top 4 team in the East. Our metrics suggest the Suns would be regarded similarly as the Celtics currently are in the East and vice versa. The Suns are 5-2 SU as a home favorite this season with an average margin of victory of +9.4PPG. Three of the Suns losses this season have come against Denver twice and the Clippers who are two of the top four teams in the West along with the Lakers and Jazz. Boston is coming off a road win against the Clippers, but they were in a favorable scheduling situation as the Clippers were off a long East coast trip. Boston’s other road wins this season have come against teams that have a combined 56-79 SU record. The C’s rank 11th in offensive efficiency on the road but drop all the way to 18th in DEFF. Phoenix is 15th in OEFF at home but rank 2nd in defensive efficiency allowing just 1.055-points per possession on their home court. Boston is without a pair of starters here in Jaylen Brown and Marcus Smart and don’t have enough depth to overcome those losses. Our computers have the Suns winning by 7 here. |
|||||||
02-06-21 | Raptors v. Hawks +5 | Top | 121-132 | Win | 100 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Atlanta Hawks +5 over Toronto Raptors, 8 PM ET - The line move on this game is an indicator Trae Young will be in the lineup for the Hawks tonight and we like Atlanta as a home dog here. Let’s start there. Atlanta is coming off their worst shooting night of the season as they hit just 33% from the field versus the Jazz in a blowout loss. Our models like them to bounce back here against an average Toronto team coming off a big upset of the Nets last night. The Hawks schedule of late has been brutal with five games against five of the best teams in the NBA (Jazz, Lakers, Clippers, Nets and Bucks). Now they take a step down against a Raptors team that has the same record as they do at 10-12 SU. Toronto has a positive road differential of +.5PPG but they are just 4-7 SU away from home and they are 0-2 SU this season when playing without rest. Atlanta is 0-4 ATS as a home dog this season BUT those losses came against some of the league’s elite teams and Toronto is not on that level. Toronto is 2-3 ATS as a road chalk this year. Finally, consider this, the Lakers just played here and were -7-points and now the Raptors are laying a number near that? Bet the Atlanta Hawks in this one. |
|||||||
02-06-21 | Wisconsin v. Illinois -3.5 | Top | 60-75 | Win | 100 | 8 h 47 m | Show |
#658 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Illinois -3.5 over Wisconsin, Saturday at 2:30 PM ET - This is a tough match up for the Badgers. Defensively, they struggle to contain athletic, quick back courts and Illinois has just that. They have problems staying with penetrating guards and on top of that UW usually has an advantage inside with Reuvers and Potter but that won’t necessarily be the case here. Illinois has two very good big men in Cockburn and Bezhanishvili who open up the outside for one of the top 3 point shooting teams in the nation (10th best in the country). Four of Illinois five losses have come vs teams that scored at least 80 points in their game. Wisconsin isn’t built to put up huge numbers offensively. In fact the Badgers have scored 80+ points in just 1 of their 12 Big 10 games (in regulation). They often win low scoring games and we’re not sure they can hold Illinois (8th most efficient offense in the country) in check here. So that means Wisconsin will have to keep up and we don’t think they can. Wisconsin has beaten the teams they are supposed to for the most part, however they’ve only played 2 teams ranked in the top 6 in the Big 10 and lost to both (Ohio State by 12 and Michigan by 23). The favorite is 19-7-1 ATS the last 27 meetings and this is simply a bad match up for Wisconsin. Lay the points. |
|||||||
02-05-21 | Raptors v. Nets -4.5 | Top | 123-117 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 25 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets -4.5 over Toronto Raptors, 7:30 PM ET - The Nets win with offense and when the Big 3 of Kyrie, Harden and Durant are on the floor they’re nearly impossible to defend. In their last five games the Nets have an offensive efficiency rating of 1.252 points per possession and are averaging 129.4PPG. The concern for Brooklyn is their defense but they have the ability to turn it up against good teams. The Nets are allowing 1.136PPP on the season which ranks then 26th in the NBA but in their last eight games against winning teams that efficiency rating improves dramatically. In their last five games the Nets have a +8PPG point differential which is 5th best in the league. Toronto has struggled out of the gate this NBA season with a 9-12 SU, 8-13 ATS record. The Raptors are off two wins versus an Orlando team that is 8-14 SU and dealing with injuries so we’re not impressed. Making a line comparison we see the Raptors were just +4.5 points at Indiana who isn’t on the same level as this Brooklyn team. Brooklyn is 5-1 SU their last six games and on a 5-0 spread run at home with the wins coming by an average of +6PPG. Toronto has an offensive efficiency rating of 1.116PPG which ranks 18th in the NBA and they’ll have a tough time keeping pace with the Nets here. |
|||||||
02-05-21 | Maryland v. Penn State -2 | Top | 50-55 | Win | 100 | 7 h 57 m | Show |
#860 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Penn State -2 over Maryland, Friday at 7 PM ET - This one sets up nicely for PSU coming off an embarrassing effort @ Wisconsin while Maryland won a barn burner at home vs Purdue. The Nittany Lions played the Badgers back to back and we could see the potential for a blowout after they beat UW on Saturday and then had to travel to Madison on Tuesday. PSU was stymied by Wisconsin’s defense holding the Nits to just 56 points which again we could see coming after the Badgers played very poor defensive vs them a few days earlier. Penn State is undervalued right now because of their overall & Big 10 record (6-8 & 3-7) but this team is solid. They’ve had a number of players miss games this season and they are now getting healthy over the last few weeks with Sessoms and Dread back in the line up. They have won 3 of their last 5 games and one of those losses was a 4-point setback @ Ohio State, who just might be the best team in the Big 10 right now. PSU led by 8 in the 2nd half of that game. They are 3-1 at home in Big 10 play with their only loss coming vs Illinois before Christmas. Maryland is off a thrilling 61-60 win over Purdue at home. It was a game the Terps led for a total of 5:00 minutes and won the game on 2 FT’s with 3 seconds remaining. Tough spot for them with a home game vs Ohio State on deck as well. Both rely heavily on the 3-point shot offensively and while PSU is decent at defending the arc (114th nationally & 5th in the Big 10), Maryland stinks in that regard (249th nationally & 11th in the Big 10). PSU plays much better offensively at home averaging 81 PPG while hitting almost 47% of their shots. They’ve also had some back luck in conference play this year with opponents hitting nearly 79% of their FT’s vs PSU in league play. That won’t happen here as the Terps make just 64% of their freebies in conference play. The home team has won 7 straight in this series and the host has also covered 5 of the last 6. |
|||||||
02-04-21 | Warriors +3 v. Mavs | Top | 147-116 | Win | 100 | 9 h 40 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors +3 over Dallas Mavericks, 7:35 PM ET - It’s not a good spot for the Mavs who are off a game last night in Atlanta, playing their 3rd game in four days and 4th in six. Dallas will sit Porzingis here as he’s not ready for that type of workload and they don’t want to jeopardize a set back to his injuries. Porzingis is off a 24-point 11 rebound night in Atlanta last night. Golden State on the other hand is off a close loss a few nights ago but are rested here. The big difference between these two teams is 3-point shooting. The Mavs are the 30th ranked 3-point shooting team in the NBA at 32.7% and you don’t win in today’s NBA if you can’t shoot beyond the arc. The Warriors on the other hand shoot over 36% from deep which is 17th in the league. Granted the Warriors are without two of their “bigs” here in Looney and Wiseman, but the Mavs prefer the small ball lineup with Green at the five and the Mavs don’t have the personnel to take advantage. Dallas is 1-3 SU and ATS when playing without rest this season and they’ve lost those games by an average of 11PPG. Dallas is 0-5 ATS their last five at home, 0-4 ATS as a home favorite. Warriors have won seven of eight when playing against sub .500 teams this season and a road win here looks promising. |
|||||||
02-04-21 | Cincinnati v. Temple +2.5 | Top | 63-60 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
#736 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Temple +2.5 over Cincinnati, Thursday at 7 PM ET - The Bearcats have had a long layoff having not played a game since January 10th. They had 6 straight games cancelled due to Covid within the program. Not only have they not played, they’ve practiced very little. In fact, their first 5 on 5 type practice in weeks was on Tuesday of this week. Head coach John Brannen also said his full roster will not be available for this game and he expects a few walk ons to log extended minutes in this game. So Cincy is laying points in this road tilt despite practicing just twice recently (Tues & Wed), without a full roster, and the chances of the players being in game shape is slim to none. On top of that, this simply isn’t the Cincinnati team of old as they were just 3-7 (1-4 in the AAC) when they had their extended break. Temple has been inconsistent but they’ve shown they have the ability to play very well at times. One of their key offensive players finally got into the line up in mid January as Butler transfer Khalif Battle has been able to play the last 4 games (11 PPG). Last week the Owls beat one of the top teams in the AAC here at home topping Tulsa 76-67. Tulsa was a 1.5 point favorite in that game and now Cincinnati is favored by 2.5? Tulsa is better than Cincinnati and beat the Bearcats on the road already this year. After their win vs Tulsa, the Owls laid an egg over the weekend losing at home to Tulane as an 8 point favorite. After that loss we expect Temple to play very well (third straight home game) before going on the road for 4 of their last 5. This is a big game for the Owls. Cincy is one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the country (328th) so they need to score inside the arc to be effective. That’s where the Temple defense excels ranking 48th nationally at defending 2-point attempts, The Owls also rarely send teams to the FT line so the Bearcats will struggle to score here. The last 2 seasons these teams have met 3 times with the Bearcats winning all 3 very tight by margins of 1, 4, and 7 points and those games took place when Cincy was a better team than they are right now. We fully expect Temple to get the home win here. Take the points here. |
|||||||
02-03-21 | Mavs v. Hawks UNDER 224 | Top | 122-116 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Under 224 - Dallas Mavericks vs. Atlanta Hawks, 7:30 PM ET - This game is not going to get to league average or 222 total points. Let’s start with 3-point shooting for both teams. The Mavs rank 30th in 3-point shooting at 32.8%, Atlanta is 23rd at 35.2%. The Mavs average 108.7PPG, the Hawks score 112.5PPG. Both rank in the bottom half of the NBA in overall FG percentage shooting. Dallas and their opponents have totaled less than 224 total points in four straight games and seven of their last ten. When we examine the Hawks' scores, we see they have not topped 224 total points in eight of their last ten games (if you eliminate OT’s). Both teams rank in the bottom half of the league in pace of play so we can’t see these two teams turning this into a transition track meet. The Under has cashed 4 straight in this series and Hawks on 7-0 Under streak when coming off a spread loss. The bet here is UNDER. |
|||||||
02-03-21 | Kentucky v. Missouri UNDER 137 | Top | 70-75 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
#715/716 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 137 Points – Kentucky @ Missouri, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - While Kentucky is struggling with just a 5-10 overall record, their defense has been very solid all year. They are ranked 14th nationally in defensive efficiency and they have allowed less than 1.00 PPP in 5 of their last 6 games. In SEC play the Cats are giving up only 0.99 PPP. Offensively they’ve really had problems. They rank 11th in offensive efficiency, 12th in eFG%, and 14th (last) in 2-point FG% (in conference play). They have been held to 65 points or less in 4 of their last 5 games. On the season UK is making only 41% of their shots and just 29% from 3. Mizzou is off back to back high scoring games vs TCU and Auburn but we think that changes here. In their most recent game over the weekend, they beat TCU 102-98 in OT where both teams went off hitting 56% of their shots overall, 46% of their 3-point shots, and they combined to make 34 FT’s. It was a fast paced game that was on pace and the 2 teams combined to score a ridiculous 60 points in the final 10 minutes of regulation. This one won’t be fast paced as UK is one of the slowest teams in the SEC and Mizzou is in the bottom half of tempo stats in league play. Both defenses rank ahead of the offenses in this one with Kentucky ranking 2nd in eFG% defense in SEC play and Missouri ranking 3rd. The offense rank 12th and 8th respectively in that category. Neither teams shoot many 3 pointers with both ranking 300th or lower nationally in percentage of points from beyond the arc. When they do shoot 3’s, they aren’t very good with the Cats hitting 29% of their shots from deep and Mizzou hits just 30%. This has been a low scoring series with 4 of the last 5 meetings landing on 134 or lower. UNDER is the play. |
|||||||
02-02-21 | Clippers v. Nets +1.5 | Top | 120-124 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets +1.5 over LA Clippers, 7:35 PM ET - This is clearly a marquee game between two of Star ridden teams and we like the Nets at home in a win. The Clippers have won 10 of their last eleven games and are starting to look like the team that was supposed to win a Championship last season. But a closer look at this current streak doesn’t have us as excited as Clipper fans are. In their last ten wins the Clippers best win is over the Indiana Packers who are 11-9 SU on the season and not ONE of the other wins came against a team that is above .500 right now. The Clippers are one of the top teams in the NBA in offensive efficiency and have risen up the ranks in defensive efficiency (11th) lately because of the weak schedule. We like the fact Brooklyn comes into this game off an upset loss against a very motivated Wizards team and will look to get back on track here. The Nets have won 7 of their last ten games with one of those coming at home against the Bucks. James Harden sat out the other night but is expected back here giving the Nets their vaunted “Big 3” on the offensive end of the court which makes them extremely difficult to defend. The Clippers have some injury questions of their own with two starters (Batum, Beverley) potentially out again tonight. The bigger Stars rise to the occasion tonight and get a home win. |
|||||||
02-02-21 | North Carolina -3.5 v. Clemson | Top | 50-63 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* North Carolina -3.5 @ Clemson, 7 PM ET - Clemson has literally forgotten how to play defense as they’ve allowed 1.467, 1.327, 1.151 and 1.213 points per possession in four of their last five games. Those are all drastically higher than the D1 average of 1.018PPP. In the Tigers most recent game they gave up 79-points to a Duke team that ranks slightly higher in offensive efficiency in ACC play than this North Carolina team. The Tarheels are scoring 1.043 points per possession, 5th best in the conference. In comparison, Clemson is currently last in the ACC in offensive efficiency averaging less than .94PPP. Not only are the Tarheels better offensively but defensively it’s not close as Clemson is 3rd to last in the ACC in defensive efficiency, North Carolina is 6th. The Tarheels will own a decisive advantage on the boards with the 2nd best offensive rebounding team in the country. North Carolina has played well of late with three straight wins and 6 of their last seven. We don’t think the trend of horrendous defense by Clemson is going to end anytime soon and will look to play against them here. |
|||||||
02-01-21 | Lakers v. Hawks +6 | Top | 107-99 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Atlanta Hawks +6 over the LA Lakers, 7:30 PM ET - Don’t bet this game on the names of the front of the jerseys or the history of the franchises, bet this game on value in the number. Surprisingly, the Hawks rank 8th in offensive efficiency ratings at 1.126 points per possession which coincidentally is the exact same OEFF as the Lakers. The Hawks defensive efficiency rating is 10th best in the NBA at 1.096PPP. L.A. leads the league at 1.048PPP allowed per game. The Lakers average point differential is +7.7PPG but the Hawks aren’t far behind at +3PPG. So, looking at the overall numbers there really isn’t as big separator between these two teams as you might think. LA has been on the road for six straight games with a 2-4 SU record but the four wins haven’t been blowouts by any means at +1, +7, +11 and +7PPG. The Hawks have played well with a 6-4 SU record their last ten games and the losses came at Utah, at Portland, at Milwaukee and home in overtime versus the Nets. This line looks like a trap with the Lakers so let’s bet the team Vegas doesn’t want us to, the Hawks! |
|||||||
02-01-21 | Murray State v. SE Missouri State UNDER 132.5 | Top | 77-60 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
#865/866 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 132.5 points – Murray State @ SE Missouri State, Monday at 7 PM ET - SE Missouri State has struggled offensively as much as any team in the OVC. They reached 70 points in regulation just 1 time in the last 13 games. They are a slow paced team that doesn’t get many shot attempts as they have averaged just 52 shots per game over their last 10. Not only do they have limited shot attempts each game, they are very inefficient on offense on top of that. They rank 305th nationally in offensive efficiency. The Redhawks are also one of the worst FT shooting teams in the nation hitting only 64%. They’ll be facing a Murray State team that rates as the slowest tempo team in the OVC in conference play. The Murray defense has allowed an average of just 66 PPG on OVC play including holding Belmont, the #1 offensive efficiency team in the conference, to 72 & 68 points in their 2 meetings. When facing offenses ranked in the lower half of the OVC in efficiency Murray State allows just 61 PPG. SE Mizzou State ranks 9th in the league in offensive efficiency. The Racers are averaging 71 PPG in OVC play but against the top 3 ranked defensive efficiency teams at they have averaged only 60 PPG. SE Missouri State ranks 4th in the conference in defensive efficiency so we expect Murray State to struggle here. Like SEMO the Racers are also a poor FT shooting team hitting only 68% as a team. This will be a game with limited possessions and we look for both defenses to have the advantage here. SEMO has gone under the total in 6 of their last 7 and Murray State has stayed under in 4 of their last 5. Take the UNDER. |
|||||||
01-31-21 | Cavs v. Wolves UNDER 219 | Top | 104-109 | Win | 100 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 219 Cleveland Cavaliers @ Minnesota Timberwolves, 7 PM ET - The Under is the play here with two of the worst offensive efficiency teams in the NBA. These two teams are literally 29th and 30th in the league in offensive efficiency averaging less than 1.05 points per possession. The Cavs are also 29th in the NBA in pace of play at 97 possessions per game and 12th in defensive efficiency. Minnesota plays fast and doesn’t play much defense but even with those two negatives their games have still averaged 224 total points per game this season. The games the Cavs have played in though have averaged just 213PPG. These are two poor shooting teams as the Cavaliers hit just 45% of their field goal attempts while the Wolves make just 43.5% of their shots which ranks them both in the bottom third of the league. Minnesota hasn’t cracked 100 points in 4 of their last seven games while Cleveland has scored 108 or less points in 7 of their last ten. We don’t see this game getting close to league average and will bet UNDER HERE. |
|||||||
01-31-21 | Northern Iowa v. Southern Illinois OVER 138.5 | Top | 68-71 | Win | 100 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
#829/830 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 138.5 Points – Northern Iowa @ Southern Illinois, Sunday at 6 PM ET - These two played on Saturday and tallied 136 points with UNI winning 74-62. The game stayed under by a couple of points as the closing total was 138 at most spots. The two teams combined to make 50 of their 108 shots which isn’t bad at 46%. However, digging deeper we can see a lot of points were left off the board in this game. While they shot OK overall, their 3-point shooting numbers and FT numbers were horrible. The 2 teams combined to make only 11 of their 40 three point attempts (barely 25%) and from the charity stripe they combined to make 25 FT’s on 47 attempts (53%). Both teams drastically underperformed their season averages in those 2 categories as UNI hits 34% of their 3’s on the year and SIU hits 37% (49th nationally). From the stripe they hit 68% and 70% respectively. It’s not as if these teams are lock down defensively from the arc either as NIU ranks 312th nationally defending the 3 and SIU ranks 299th. It was simply an off shooting performance. Expect a much better offensive performance from these teams on Sunday as both defense rank at the very bottom of the Missouri Valley in most key categories. They are 9th & 10th in defensive efficiency (10 team league) and neither of the two rank above 8th in eFG% defense, 2-point % defense, or 3-point % defense. We look for this one to get into the mid 140’s on Sunday so take the OVER. |
|||||||
01-30-21 | Pistons v. Warriors -5.5 | Top | 91-118 | Win | 100 | 16 h 40 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Golden State -5.5 over Detroit Pistons, 10 PM ET - Scheduling favors the Warriors here who are at home off a loss while Detroit is off a huge upset win of the Lakers. The Pistons are 1-7 SU on the road this season with an average differential of minus -6.5PPG. The Pistons have THE WORST defensive efficiency on the road this year 1.183PPP OR 119PPG. Detroit has lost three straight road games by 15, 8 and 6-points. Golden State has had their ups and downs, but they are still 7-4 SU at home with a plus +5.1PPG differential. The Warriors were just -8.5 and -9 points at home over the Timberwolves who are similar to this same Pistons team and Golden State won both by 22 and 12 points respectively. We like Golden State to bounce here off the loss to the Suns. |
|||||||
01-30-21 | Minnesota v. Purdue UNDER 141 | Top | 62-81 | Loss | -112 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
#741/742 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 141 Points – Minnesota @ Purdue, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - We have 2 offenses in this game that have struggled in conference play. Purdue ranks 11th in the offensive efficiency with Minnesota ranking 10th in that category. These teams also rank 14th (last) and 11th in eFG% and 14th and 13th in 3 point percentage. The Gophers average 70 PPG in league play (7th) while Purdue averages 66 (11th). The Boilers are missing one of their top offensive performers as Sasha Stefanovic, who leads the Big 10 in 3 point shooting percentage, is out due to covid protocols. In their only game with out Stefanovic, Purdue scored 53 points at home vs Michigan last Friday. He’s a huge part of their offense and will be missed on Saturday. Minnesota has one of the largest home/road dichotomies on the nation. The Gophers average just 63 PPG on the road in Big 10 play and they’ve topped 65 points just once and that was @ Iowa who ranks 9th in the league in defensive efficiency and ranks 68th nationally in tempo. When Minnesota played @ Wisconsin and @ Michigan, 2 of the slower paced teams in the conference similar to Purdue, the Gophs scored 59 and 57 points. On top of that, Minnesota is shooting just 31% on the road (25% from 3) and Purdue has allowed an average of just 64 PPG in their 7 homes games this year. The Boilers will make this a slow paced game and we don’t see either team getting into the 70’s. Take the UNDER. |
|||||||
01-29-21 | Cavs -109 v. Knicks | Top | 81-102 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Cleveland Cavaliers over NY Knicks, 7:30 PM ET - We like the spot to go against the Knicks here off a four-game west coast road trip and playing their first game back home. New York went 1-3 SU our west with their only win coming at Golden State. Cleveland seems to have found the right rotations and the new additions are paying immediate dividends. The Cavs have won 4 of their last six games with a pair of impressive wins over the Nets. Cleveland also has a home win over the Knicks in that stretch of games and that was without Prince or Allen. In their last five games the Cavs have the 4th best offensive efficiency rating in the NBA while the Knicks are 23rd in that same stretch of games. Cleveland has faced the Lakers, Celtics and Nets twice in that five-game span. New York has the 22nd worst home point differential in the NBA at minus -3.6PPG. Lastly, when Vegas sets a number on a game that begs you to take a team….don’t! It looks like a trap to take the Knicks so bet Cleveland. |
|||||||
01-29-21 | Ohio v. Buffalo -1.5 | Top | 76-75 | Loss | -117 | 6 h 10 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Buffalo -1.5 over Ohio, 7 PM ET - We are backing the home team Buffalo in this MAC showdown and expect a double-digit win by the home team. The Bulls stand 4-3 SU in conference play this season while Ohio U checks in at 5-4 SU. These two teams are very similar in terms of offensive efficiency in MAC play with Ohio averaging 1.124 points per possession while Buffalo averages 1.09PPP. Defensively it’s not close as the Bulls have the best defensive efficiency rating in conference play at .982PPP allowed compared to the Bobcats who give up 1.114PPP which ranks second to last in the MAC. Ohio is 0-4 against the top four teams in the conference (Buffalo is 5th) and lost by an average of 11PPG in all four. Buffalo is on a 4-1 ATS run right now and has covered 5 of their last six conference games. The Bulls have also won 7 of the last ten meetings with the Bobcats. When Ohio has faced better competition, it hasn’t gone well for them with a 2-5 ATS their last seven against a team with a winning record. Lastly, Buffalo has a +11PPG differential at home this season and should have their way offensively against a Bobcats defense allowing over 80PPG on the road. |
|||||||
01-28-21 | Morehead State v. Jacksonville State -4.5 | Top | 85-66 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
#736 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Jacksonville State -4.5 over Morehead State, Wednesday at 8:30 PM ET - These two met just a few weeks ago with Morehead winning 56-55 at home. Jacksonville State had a shot at the buzzer to pull off the road win but missed and came up just short. Jax State hit just 33% of their shot in that game and made only 6 of 23 from deep and still nearly won the game on the road. Now we’re getting great value in this revenge spot as Jacksonville State was favored by 3 @ Morehead State in that loss and now they are laying just 3.5 at home. Not only that, the Gamecocks were missing 2 key players in that game and still nearly won the game. Starting forward Kayne Henry and 6th man Amanze Ngumezi both issues that game and they’ve since come back and played very well. Ngumezi has scored 51 points in his 4 games since returning and Henry has put up 46 points in the same span. Morehead State is 8-2 in conference play but they’ve played on of the easiest slates thus far in the OVC and their last 3 wins have come vs the 2 lowest rated teams in the league. Jax State has just one home loss this year and that was vs Belmont the best team in the OVC (16-1 overall / 10-0 in conference play) and that was a tight game with the Gamecocks trailing by just 2 points with under 3:00 remaining int eh game. It was a 7 point win over Belmont but Jacksonville State hung to the end despite an -18 made FT margin. The Gamecocks shoot 50% at home and have a point margin if +17 per game at home. Morehead State has a -6 PPG margin on the road this year and we like Jax State to get their revenge at home on Thursday night. |
|||||||
01-28-21 | Blazers v. Rockets -4 | Top | 101-104 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Houston Rockets -4 over Portland Trailblazers, 7:35 PM ET - The Rockets looked impressive in their 19-point win over Washington the other night when they had their version of the Big 3 on the court with Wall, Oladipo and Cousins. Unfortunately, Portland doesn’t have their full complement of players healthy right now with McCollum and Nurkic out for an extended time while Hood and Covington are less than 100%. The Blazers have four road wins this season but two of those were against the Kings who are 6-10 on the season. Portland was bad on the road a year ago with a 14-24 SU record and an average loss margin of minus -4.2PPG. We can’t pull statistics from the Rockets previous games this season (with Harden) but we can project what this collective group of players can accomplish based on individual efficiency statistics. Houston beat the Blazers earlier this season by 2-points in OT in Portland with McCollum and Nurkic combining for 56 points, 14 rebounds and 14 assists. It looks like a great time to buy low with Houston so we’ll back the Rockets here. |
|||||||
01-27-21 | Boise State v. Colorado State +2.5 | Top | 56-78 | Win | 100 | 14 h 15 m | Show |
#692 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Colorado State +2.5 over Boise State, Wed at 9 PM ET - Wrong team is favored here according to our power ratings. Boise State sits at 9-0 in the MWC however they’ve played the easiest schedule in league play. The Broncos have not played a single team ranked in the top 6 in the conference. All 9 of their wins have come vs the bottom 5 teams in the Mountain West. The 5 teams they’ve faced in the MWC rank 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th, and 11th in conference defensive efficiency (MWC has 11 teams in the conference). The 5 offenses they’ve faced rank 5th, 8th, 9th, 10th and 11th in MWC offensive efficiency. Boise hasn’t faced a team ranked inside the top 180 since December 9th! CSU has an 8-2 conference record but they’ve had the much tougher slate. The Rams have already faced the 2 highest rated teams in the conference (San Diego St & Utah St) and split the 2 game series which each of those teams. On top of that, both of those 2 games series was on the road. Their most recent win they knocked off Utah State 84-76 on the road last Thursday after the Aggies entered the game winning 11 in a row. The Rams are happy to finally be at home where they are 6-0 this year but haven’t played here since January 9th. CSU is one of the best shooting teams in the nation ranking 21st in the country in eFG% and 3-point FG% while also making 77% of their FT’s. They are even better at home making over 50% of their shots and hitting 45% of their shots from deep. The Rams take out Boise tonight. |
|||||||
01-27-21 | Nuggets v. Heat UNDER 219.5 | Top | 109-82 | Win | 100 | 7 h 53 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 219.5 Denver Nuggets @ Miami Heat, 7:35 PM ET - We will start with tempo here as these two teams rank in the bottom half of the league when it comes to pace with Denver 26th and Miami 18th. The number on this game is set slightly below league average, yet we can’t see these two teams getting there based on pace of play. Miami has struggled offensively without Jimmy Butler or Tyler Herro in the lineup which is a big reason why they are 24th in the NBA in offensive efficiency ratings. In their last five games the Heat are averaging just 1.055 points per possession which is 2nd to last in the league. In that same five game span though the Heat have picked it up on the other end of the floor with the 12th best defensive efficiency rating. As we mentioned, Denver plays slow but they do make up for it with a highly efficient offense which can largely be attributed to Nikola Jokic who is nearly averaging a triple-double this season. But Jokic will have his hands full with defensive stopper Bam Adebayo and that will impact the overall efficiency of the entire Nuggets offense. Miami and their opponents have scored 220 or less points in 5 of their last six. If we eliminate over-time, Denver games have also totaled 220 or less in 5 of their last six games. Based on value, pace and Bam Adebayo we like Under here. |
|||||||
01-26-21 | Mississippi State v. Tennessee UNDER 131 | Top | 53-56 | Win | 100 | 22 h 6 m | Show |
#611/612 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 131 Points – Mississippi State @ Tennessee, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Two of the slowest paced teams who are both struggling on offense calls for the UNDER here. Mississippi State ranks 312th in pace of play and the Volunteers come in at 306th in that category (out of 357 teams). Tennessee has been missing key offensive player (Springer) the last 2 games and they’ve scored 68 or less in 3 of their last 4 games. Starting PG Vescovi is also banged up with a bad hip but he’s been playing and scored just 10 total points the last 2 games (was averaging 10 PPG prior to last 2 games). The Vols now rank 10th in the SEC (conference play) in both offensive efficiency and eFG%. The Mississippi State offense has average 1.00 PPP or less in 5 of their last 7 games and now they face a defense that ranks 3rd nationally in efficiency allowing just 0.88 PPP. We expect both Tennessee & MSU to be held under 1.00 PPP which will make it very tough at a slow pace to reach this total. Both teams defenses rank above the offenses in conference efficiency which we like to look for when considering Unders. One thing that can kill under bets is if both teams end up getting to the FT line a lot. That shouldn’t be the case here as both defenses foul infrequently giving up just 15% and 17% of their opponents points at the line. So there shouldn’t be a ton of FT’s in this game and when they do get there neither team is great at the line with MSU shooting 63% and UT hitting 71%. We expect this one to be a grind it out, physical SEC match up. Under is the call. |
|||||||
01-26-21 | Western Michigan v. Ohio OVER 141 | Top | 58-81 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 141 Western Michigan @ Ohio U, 6PM ET Ohio U has scored 75+ points in seven straight games and has played in two straight that ended with 168 and 162 total points. In their last three games the Bobcats have scored 78 or better and that was against teams rated slightly better than Western in defensive efficiency. In fact, Ohio recently played Northern Illinois at home, who is comparable to Western in terms of pace, offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency and they combined for 149 total points. Ohio U is the second most efficient offense in the conference averaging 1.119-points per possession but they’re also the 2nd worst when it comes to defensive efficiency. Western has had trouble scoring points with an offensive efficiency rating in MAC play below 1-point per possession BUT they’ve faced the five best defensive teams in the conference in their last five games. Again, now they face Ohio who has one of the worst defenses in MAC play. WMU just played Akron and Vegas set a number of 138 on their game and the Zips are similar to Ohio U on offense but much better defensively. WMU and Akron finished with 147 total points. This one GOES OVER rather easily. |
|||||||
01-25-21 | Nuggets v. Mavs UNDER 223 | Top | 117-113 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 223 Denver Nuggets @ Dallas Mavericks, 8:35 PM ET - Denver is coming off a pair of overtime games against Phoenix and the last thing they want to do here is play a fast-paced up-and-down affair with the Mavs. That shouldn’t be a concern though as the Mavericks are the 21st slowest paced team in the NBA and prefer to play slow. Denver is also one of the slowest paced teams in the league ranking 26th at 97.6 possessions per game. If we eliminate the overtimes the Nuggets have played in three of their last ten games, we find they’ve combined with their opponents to scored less than 223 points in seven of those ten games. While we are on the subject of overtimes, these two teams met on Jan 7th and totaled 218-points prior to an OT period. Dallas is coming off a game against the Rockets in which they allowed 133 points on 55% shooting by Houston. The Mavs have the 12th best FG% defense in the NBA at 45.5%. Dallas also gives up the 10th fewest points in the league at 109.4PPG. Prior to the OT game between these two earlier this year these same two teams had not totaled more than 218 points in five straight meetings. The bet here is UNDER. |
|||||||
01-25-21 | Syracuse +6.5 v. Virginia | Top | 58-81 | Loss | -109 | 22 h 18 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Syracuse +6.5 over Virginia, 7PM ET Virginia is coming off a down to the wire win against Georgia Tech on Saturday, a game in which the Yellow Jackets led for most of the game. The Cavs were an 8.5-point home favorite in that game and recently a 9.5-point chalk against Notre Dame and those two teams aren’t as good as this Syracuse team. Virginia is just 1-2 ATS at home in conference action. The Cuse are off a pair of quality wins over Miami and Virginia Tech by 26 and 18-points respectively. In ACC play these two have similar overall efficiency numbers with Virginia first in offensive efficiency while Syracuse is 3rd. The Cavs check in with the 2nd ranked ACC defensive efficiency number while the Cuse are 5th. Points are a premium in this matchup of the 2/3 zone by Syracuse and the Pack-line D used by the Cavaliers which makes the dog that much more attractive. In the last two meetings (not including OT) these two have combined for 82 and 86 Total points. Grab the points with Syracuse. |
|||||||
01-23-21 | Pelicans v. Wolves UNDER 221 | Top | 110-120 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 221 New Orleans Pelicans at Minnesota Timberwolves, 8 PM ET - The oddsmakers are telling us this game should be average in scoring based on league numbers, but our math models tell us differently. Our projections are 218.5 total points being scored here and a solid Under bet. Today’s NBA is driven by 3-point shooting and these two teams are two of the worst in the NBA from beyond the arc as both shoot just 33.4% which ranks 26th and 27th. The Pelicans new coach Stan Van Gundy has a reputation for defense, but they’ve given up ton of points their last five games. When we analyze those last five games though we see the Pels have played the 1st, 5th, 7th and 14th ranked offensive efficiency teams in the league. The Timberwolves are on the complete opposite end of the spectrum in that regard with the 29th (second to last) OEFF in the NBA. Minnesota has scored less than 100-points in four of their last five games. The Pelicans have had their own offensive struggles this season with an offensive efficiency rating of 1.092 which ranks 19th. New Orleans is one of the slower paced teams in the NBA this season and the Wolves have been much slower in their last five games compared to season averages. The last four times these two teams have met in Minny it’s resulted in an Under. That trend continues here. BET UNDER! |
|||||||
01-23-21 | Duke v. Louisville -1 | Top | 65-70 | Win | 100 | 19 h 54 m | Show |
#676 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Louisville -1 over Duke, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET - We’re not jumping off this train yet. We’ve gone against Duke in each of their last 2 games and cashed on both @ Va Tech and @ Pitt. Now they are playing their 3rd straight road game @ Louisville on Saturday. The Devils continue to be overvalued as they are now 1-8 ATS on the season and their spread losses have come by an average of 12 PPG. In other words, they aren’t even close to covering. Louisville is coming off a home loss on Monday vs a red hot FSU team. The Noles are playing FAR better than Duke right now and the Cards were favored by 4 in that game. Now laying only 2 points vs a Duke team that is really struggling. The Devils aren’t built to win on the road right now. They aren’t a good 3-point shooting team (223rd nationally) and they don’t defend the 3 point line well (295th nationally). They don’t get to the FT line with only 13.7% of their points coming from the line (332nd nationally) so they have to shoot really well to have a chance to win and they simply aren’t a great shooting team. On top of that, Duke has been sending teams to the line a lot in ACC play with almost 20% of opponents points coming from the stripe. The Devils also rank dead last in the league in defensive efficiency (conference games). The Cards are every bit as good as Va Tech & Pitt, the 2 teams that just beat Duke (by 7 & 6 points) and coming off a home less sets them up for a solid performance. We fade Duke again on Saturday. |
|||||||
01-22-21 | Knicks v. Kings -4 | Top | 94-103 | Win | 100 | 16 h 32 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Sacramento Kings -4 over NY Knicks, 10 PM ET - This is certainly a bad spot for the Knicks playing the second night of a back to back and third game in four days. New York is coming off a game last night against the Warriors so fatigue will be a factor. The Knicks are just 4-9 SU the past two years when playing without rest and they’ve lost those games by an average of -10.5PPG. Overall New York does not do well when it comes to facing a Western Conference opponent with a 7-19 SU record their last 26 and they typically get beat bad by an average of 10.3PPG. Even though Sacramento has a 36-51 SU record the past two years they are 8-8 SU at home as a favorite. The Kings have lost 4 in a row but two of those came against the Clippers and one was against Portland and New Orleans who are all better than the Knicks. The Kings have the 11th best offensive efficiency rating in the NBA while the Knicks are 26th. New York has a solid overall defensive efficiency but they’ve played a soft schedule. Sacramento is desperate for a win and should get one by double digits here. |
|||||||
01-22-21 | St. Peter's +4.5 v. Siena | Top | 68-62 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* St Peters +4.5 over Siena, 7 PM ET - Siena is what we call a ‘false favorite’ as their undefeated record of 6-0 SU has them over-valued here. Siena has played all conference opponents to date but four of those games were against Rider and Fairfield who are 6-14 in Metro action and two of the worst teams in the league. St Peters has faced Niagara and Canisius who are both better than Rider and Fairfield and both teams have faced Monmouth. Siena beat Monmouth twice while St Peters split with them, winning by 2 and losing by 2. The lines on the games against Monmouth are the tell in this situation as St Peters was favored by 2-points in both games at Monmouth while Siena was -2.5-point favorites at home. In fact, St Peters has been a favorite in every conference game this season. Last season these teams met twice and both games went down to the wire with a 5-point and 3-point margin. Siena also has some injury concerns while the Peacocks are healthy. Easy call here with the points. |
|||||||
01-21-21 | Pelicans v. Jazz -6.5 | Top | 118-129 | Win | 100 | 15 h 25 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Utah Jazz -6.5 over New Orleans Pelicans, 10 PM ET - We successfully played on the Jazz the other night against this Pelicans team and will do it again here. Despite playing just 5 home games and 9 road games the Jazz have a +/- differential this season of plus +6PPG which rates 4th best in the NBA. Utah has caught fire with six straight wins and covers, most recently a win against this same Pels team. The Jazz are one of three teams in the NBA that can boast a top 10 offensive and defensive efficiency rating in the NBA and the other two are the Lakers and Bucks. The Jazz are 54-25 SU at home since 2018 with an average margin of victory of +6.2PPG. In our opinion the Pelicans made a bad hire with Stan Van Gundy as their coach. It’s not that he isn’t a great coach, he’s just not the right fit for the Pelicans. New Orleans is 1-5 SU & ATS their last six games and three of those games were at home. The Pels are in the bottom half of the league in both offensive and defensive efficiency and they struggle to shoot the 3-ball at 33.4%. Why won't the Pelicans get a measure of revenge here with a win? The main reason is their inability to defend the 3 which was evident in the game the other night when Utah 21 of 47 3's or 45%. The Pels can't fix that defensive liability in 2 days so expect similar results. New Orleans has played three road games against similar competition to the Jazz and lost all three by double-digits. We like Utah by 10-points here. |
|||||||
01-21-21 | Wichita State +3 v. Memphis | Top | 52-72 | Loss | -103 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
#730 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Wichita State +3 over Memphis, Thursday at 7 PM ET - Memphis continues to be overrated by the oddsmakers. They have lost 7 straight games vs the number by a combined 57 points or -8 PPG vs the spread. Since December 1st the Tigers haven’t beaten a single team ranked inside the top 100. They are 1-5 SU overall vs top 100 teams with their lone win in their season opener vs St Marys. They are 2-2 in the AAC with their wins coming vs Tulane by 6 and South Florida by 1. Those 2 teams are ranked last and 8th in the 11 team conference. Their 2 losses came vs Tulsa, a team Wichita just beat by 19 in their most recent game (they’ve already beaten Tulsa twice). The Shockers have been impressive this year with 4 wins already vs top 100 opponents and their only 3 losses have come at the hands of Missouri (by 10), Oklahoma State (by 3) and Houston (by 7) – all ranked inside the top 40 with Houston currently ranked 8th. Their 7 point loss @ Houston was the Cougars closest win this season and a game the Shockers led by 7 in the 2nd half. Wichita has played the much tougher schedule and much more consistent schedule as they’ve played 4 games in January but have had a week off to get ready for this game. Memphis, on the other hand, just played their first game since December 29th last Sunday, a 58-57 loss @ Tulsa. The Tigers are a poor shooting team that has only top 0.90 PPP once in their last 5 games. The last three games they’ve scored 49, 58, and 57 points. We don’t think they should be favored in this game so we’ll grab the generous points with Wichita State |
|||||||
01-20-21 | Spurs v. Warriors UNDER 228 | Top | 99-121 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 228 San Antonio Spurs @ Golden State Warriors, 9 PM ET - Our model is projecting 222 total points in this game or league average. We can make an immediate comparison with the Spurs most recent game against the Blazers. Vegas set a number of 226.5 in that game and they scored 229. But Portland is one of the worst defenses in the NBA allowing 1.14 points per possession while Golden State is better at 1.103PPP. Golden State is faster in pace of play than Portland but also way worse in offensive efficiency as the Warriors rank 24th. The Spurs have played Under in 4 of their last five games and if we eliminate the Overtime period they played against Minnesota, their total points scored in games has been less than 228 in 7 of their last ten. Golden State is struggling on the offensive end of the floor with the 24th ranked offensive efficiency rating in the NBA, shooting just 44% from the field overall and having the 20th ranked 3-point percentage. The Warriors defense has shown steady improvements though allowing 108 or less points in 5 of their last seven and the two games they gave up more than that were against two of the best offenses in the NBA (Nuggets/Lakers). San Antonio is below average in terms of offensive efficiency and scoring this season. Golden State has played in some higher scoring games this season, but they came against bad defensive teams and the Spurs rank 11th in DEFF so it won’t be easy tonight. We don’t see these two scoring more than 222. |
|||||||
01-20-21 | VCU v. St Bonaventure UNDER 140.5 | Top | 54-70 | Win | 100 | 5 h 24 m | Show |
#669/670 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 140.5, VCU @ St Bonaventure, Wed at 5 PM ET - Value here is on the Under according to our numbers. We had this total set at 136 and when it came out at 138 we liked the value. Now that it has been bet up a few more points the UNDER now is a play on for us. VCU likes to play fast and when they face off with opponent that would prefer to play at a quick tempo, they’ve had some high scoring games. They are averaging 76 PPG on the season but their numbers are higher than they should be because the majority of their opponents are fast paced. The Rams have played 13 games this season and only 4 of those were vs teams ranked 200 or lower in pace of play. In those 4 games vs slower paced teams, the average combined points scored was 126 and only 1 of those games topped 140. St Bonnies ranks 275th in tempo and they are at home in this game. We’ve found it’s much easier to slow a team down rather than speed a team up. In other words, the slower team usually gets the tempo they prefer. We also have 2 top notch defenses here both ranking in the top 60 nationally in both defensive efficiency and eFG% allowed. The Bonnies have topped 140 just twice this year and they’ve now gone under the total in 5 straight. The Rams have gone under in 5 of their last 6 road games. The last 2 years when these teams have met the totals have been set in the 120’s. Now 140? Someone is going to have to get to 70+ points for this to have a shot at going over and our numbers say neither get there. Take the UNDER. |
|||||||
01-19-21 | Pelicans v. Jazz -6 | Top | 102-118 | Win | 100 | 14 h 19 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Utah Jazz -6 over New Orleans Pelicans, 9PM ET We know home favorites in the NBA have not done well this season, and the fact the Jazz are just 2-2 SU at home, but we like them here minus the points. Despite playing just 4 home games and 9 road games the Jazz have a +/- differential this season of plus +5.1PPG which rates 5th best in the NBA. Utah has caught fire with five straight wins and covers, most recently a road win at Denver, when their best player Donovan Mitchell didn’t play well. The Jazz are one of three teams in the NBA that can boast a top 10 offensive and defensive efficiency rating in the NBA and the other two are the Lakers and Bucks. The Jazz are 53-25 SU at home since 2018 with an average margin of victory of +6.2PPG. In our opinion the Pelicans made a bad hire with Stan Van Gundy as their coach. It’s not that he isn’t a great coach, he’s just not the right fit for the Pelicans. New Orleans is 1-4 SU & ATS their last five games and three of those games were at home. The Pels are in the bottom half of the league in both offensive and defensive efficiency and they struggle to shoot the 3-ball at 33.4%. New Orleans has played three road games against similar competition to the Jazz and lost all three by double-digits. We like Utah by 10-points here. |
|||||||
01-19-21 | Colorado State +7.5 v. Utah State | Top | 64-83 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Colorado State +7.5 @ Utah State, 9 PM ET - Utah State is coming off a HUGE 2-game series with San Diego State and played both games at a high level, so a letdown is imminent. San Diego State was one of the favorites to win the conference this season which is why they were small favorites in both game on this court over the weekend with the Aggies. Those two wins by Utah State has caused an over-reaction by the oddsmakers which has driven this line up to where it is now, yet Colorado State may be better than San Diego State. CSU is 3rd in the conference in OEFF at 1.115 (San Diego State 8th) and 3rd in DEFF (SDSU 5th). The Rams are a great shooting team with an EFG% of 56 (23rd in nation), 39.2% 3-point shooting (21st) a 2-pt percentage of 53.5%. Utah State will have a much tougher time defending the Rams shooters in this game than they did SDSU. Utah State has some incredible defensive numbers this season but prior to the two games against San Diego State they hadn’t played a team ranked higher than 212 per KenPom in 8 straight games. We like the Rams and the points here in a close game. |
|||||||
01-18-21 | Bucks v. Nets +2.5 | Top | 123-125 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets +2.5 over Milwaukee Bucks, 7:30 PM ET - We are NOT betting this game because of the Harden deal! Yes, that’s certainly a factor but our analytics have the Bucks grade lower than the oddsmakers as they aren’t playing up to last years standards. The Bucks are 9-4 SU with a +/- differential of plus 10.8PPG. but they’ve faced an extremely easy schedule. Milwaukee has only faced two teams with current winning records, and they lost both of those games (Jazz, Celtics). In their current four game winning streak the teams they’ve beaten have a combined record of 21-27. The Nets now are the favorite in the East with arguably the three best individual scorers in the NBA on their roster. Harden, Durant and Irving can literally go for 50 on any given night and opposing coaches/teams will have nightmares trying to figure out how to stop them. Brooklyn has also played a soft schedule BUT they’ve beaten the four best teams they’ve faced (Denver, Philly, Utah & Boston). The Nets have too many superstars and will be out to prove a point here. |
|||||||
01-18-21 | Florida State v. Louisville -1.5 | Top | 78-65 | Loss | -112 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
#876 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Louisville -1.5 over Florida State, Monday at 7 PM ET - The Cards are coming off a 78-72 loss @ Miami in a game they were favored by -4.5 points. Their starting guards, Jones and Johnson, both shoot around 40% from 3-point land combined for 2 of 9 from deep on Saturday. The Cards as a team made only 3 of 20 from deep which was the difference in the game. The should fare much better at home on Monday vs an FSU defense that is poor at defending the arc (263rd nationally). The Noles topped North Carolina on Saturday, however the Heels, who entered Saturday ranked 11th in the ACC in 3-point shooting, made 10 shots from deep vs FSU. The Noles had a long 2+ week break recently due to covid issues and they’ve had 2 games since that break both at home last Wednesday and on Saturday. They won both games and their offense was ridiculously good. Over the 2 games they made 65 of their 108 shot attempts (60%), 20 of their 34 three point attempts (59%), and 37 of their 38 FT attempts (97%). While they do have an efficient offense, those numbers are not sustainable especially now that they take the road for only the 2nd time this season. Their first road game was @ Clemson and FSU lost that game by 10 shooting 42% overall and just 28% from deep. They are facing a very solid Louisville defense (allowing 0.93 PPP) coming off one of their worst efforts of the year on Saturday as Miami hit them for 1.15 PPP. Expect the Cards to play very well defensively on Monday. FSU is also a bit banged up with guards Barnes (11 PPG) possibly out and and Walker (16 PPG) a game time decision. Louisville is 7-0 at home this year and they are also 19-4 their last 23 home meetings with FSU. The Noles are a bit overvalued right now and Louisville is at home off a loss. Nice spot to lay the small number. |
|||||||
01-17-21 | Indiana State v. Illinois State OVER 140.5 | Top | 74-68 | Win | 100 | 4 h 49 m | Show |
#829/830 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 140.5 Points – Indiana State @ Illinois State, Sunday at 4 PM ET - These 2 played yesterday with Indiana State winning 73-65 for a total score of 138. They reached that number despite both shooting poorly (40.8% combined overall) and neither hitting 30% from the 3-point line. Both are solid 3-point shooting teams hitting 35% & 38% on the season so we expect a much better effort on the offensive end on Sunday. Both underachieved as well on a points per possession basis with the Sycamores putting up 1.00 PPP and the Redbirds 0.89 PPP, both below their season averages. Neither team is good defensively 273rd and 277th nationally in eFG% defense. Illinois State has allowed at least 70 points in 8 of their 11 games on the season and Indiana State has given up at least 70 in 7 of their 12 games. Their overall offensive numbers in league don’t look great with Indiana State averaging 67 PPG in league play and Illinois State averaging 61 PPG, however of their 12 combined games in the MVC this season, 8 of them have come against the 3 top defensive teams in the league (Loyola, Drake, and Mizzou St). Both like to play fast and it took a half for each offense to get comfortable with the opposing defense yesterday. After scoring just 57 combined points in the first half they put up 81 in the 2nd. We say they pick up where they left off on Saturday and this goes over the total (currently set at 141). |
|||||||
01-17-21 | Bulls +7 v. Mavs | Top | 117-101 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Chicago Bulls +7 @ Dallas Mavericks, 3 PM ET - The Bulls have lost four straight games, but they’ve been competitive in all of those losing by a combined 11 total points. Prior to this losing streak they had won 4 of five games including a win at home over this Dallas team. In their last four game the Bulls lost to the Clippers by 3-points and the Lakers by 2-points, both on the road. As a dog this season the Bulls have covered 8 of ten games. The Mavs look like a MASH unit right now with several key contributors currently sidelined, but they did recently get Porzingis back in the lineup. Dallas is also on a nice spread run with five straight covers but all but one of those were as a dog or small favorite. The Mavs have a winning record at 6-5 SU with an average point differential of +4.3PPG which is not enough to cover here. Chicago has a negative differential of -4.8PPG this season which is good enough to get the money here. Dallas may win this game but it won’t be by a wide margin. |
|||||||
01-16-21 | Baylor -4.5 v. Texas Tech | Top | 68-60 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
#691 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Baylor -4.5 over Texas Tech, 4:00 PM ET - Baylor has been one of two dominant teams this year along with Gonzaga. The Bears are 11-0 with all 11 wins coming by double digits. That includes 4 wins vs top 100 teams and an 13 point win vs an outstanding Illinois team who ranks 8th nationally in the power rankings. Their average margin of victory on the season is +28 points. They rank in the top 5 nationally in BOTH offensive and defensive efficiency. The Bears also rank in the top 10 nationally in eFG%, 3 point %, and offensive rebounding. This is as complete a team as you’ll find in the nation. Texas Tech is solid. They are not on the same level as Baylor. The Red Raiders have already lost 2 home games vs Oklahoma State & Kansas. They have won just 2 games this season vs top 50 teams both by margins of 2 points. Tech is coming off a huge won @ Texas winning 79-77 on a last second shot by Mac McClung. The Raiders were more than fortunate as they led that game for a total of 45 seconds. Baylor won both games in this Big 12 series last year and the Bears have taken a big step forward while our ratings have Tech at about the same level as a year ago. We actually feel Tech is a bit overvalued as they’ve lost 5 straight home games to the number. Baylor is the much better team this season and we’ll lay the small number. |
|||||||
01-15-21 | Clippers v. Kings OVER 227.5 | Top | 138-100 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 227.5 LA Clippers @ Sacramento Kings, 10 PM ET - The Kings have struggled to stop anyone this season and teams have put up a ton of points against Sacramento’s defense. The Kings are allowing 122PPG on the season which ranks 30th in the NBA, they allow opponents to make 49.5% of their FG attempts (30th) and allow 38.9% 3-point shooting which is 26th. Factoring into this wager of course is the Kings pace of play which rates 8th fastest in the NBA and an offense that is 12th in the league in efficiency scoring 1.123 points per every possession. Sacramento has given up 122 or more points in 7 of their last eight games so expect the Clippers to get to at least that here. Speaking of the Clippers, they are coming off a game against the Bulls who have very similar numbers to the Kings and that game ended with 257 total points. L.A. is the 3rd most efficient offense in the NBA at 1.159 points per possession, but their defense ranks 26th worst allowing 1.144PPP. Let’s not forget the league average for total points scored in an NBA game this season is 222.8PPG and the Kings score and allow more than league average while the Clippers score more but allow slightly less. The opening total on this game by Vegas was accurate and the move down gives us added value. Bet Over. |
|||||||
01-14-21 | Hornets v. Raptors -7.5 | Top | 108-111 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Toronto Raptors -7.5 over Charlotte Hornets, 7:30 PM ET - We have waited for a spot to play on the Raptors and this is a solid one. Toronto has gotten off to a horrible start by their expectations and are coming off a 4 game West coast road trip where they went 1-3 SU. They have just 2 wins on the season after going 53-19 in the regular season a year ago. Charlotte hasn’t been a great road team going 27-48 SU the past two years, last season they had the 4th worst average loss margin in the NBA of -8.1PPG. The Hornets are in a bad scheduling situation here playing their 3rd game in four nights and the second of a back to back after a game last night versus Dallas. This line is set up to draw Charlotte money and we won’t bite. Back the Raptors in this one. |
|||||||
01-14-21 | Stanford v. Utah +1.5 | Top | 65-79 | Win | 100 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Utah +1.5 over Stanford, 5 PM ET *Early tip* With public money immediately flowing in on Stanford this line moved the opposite direction which grabbed our attention. Utah has some tremendous offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency numbers despite playing a brutally tough schedule. The Utes have lost four straight games, but it came against teams rated 28th or better by Kenpom. Utah lost three of those games close to UCLA by 2, Oregon by 6 and Colorado by 7-points and they got outscored from the charity strip by 16 in that one. Stanford has won 3 in a row, but they’ve been playing the bottom of the Pac 12 conference unlike Utah. The Cardinal’s two toughest games have been against Arizona who they beat by 3 and Oregon who they lost by 17. The home team has won 9 of the last ten meetings and Utah is in a desperate situation here. Bet against the public and play on Utah here. |
|||||||
01-13-21 | Mavs v. Hornets UNDER 220 | Top | 104-93 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 220 Dallas Mavericks @ Charlotte Hornets, 7 PM ET - An average NBA game this season finishes with 222.8 points per game this season. This number is obviously slightly lower than that but our analytics tell us this game won’t be ‘average’. These two teams know how to play defense with both ranking in the top 10 in the NBA in defensive efficiency. The Mavs are giving up just 106PPG on the season, Charlotte allows just 108PPG. The Mavericks are the 6th slowest paced team in the NBA at 98.2 possessions per game, Charlotte is the 10th slowest at 99.8 possessions. When it comes to offensive efficiency ratings both rate in the bottom half of the NBA with Dallas checking in at 17th, Charlotte is 12th. In their last five games both teams have put the clamps down defensively allowing 42% shooting by opponents which is significantly better than league average of 46%. Combined these two teams have stayed Under the number 14 of twenty games. The bet here is Under. |
|||||||
01-13-21 | NC State +4.5 v. Florida State | Top | 73-105 | Loss | -108 | 21 h 54 m | Show |
#661 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* NC State +4.5 over Florida State, Wed at 6:30 PM ET - We think this NC State team is undervalued. They are 6-3 on the season but definitely better than their record. This team has only been at 100% for a few games this season as starters Hayes and Funderburk (now coming off bench) have missed a few key games. The Wolfpack are coming off 2 straight losses @ Clemson in OT and at home vs an underrated Miami team in tight game over the weekend. The Canes shot the lights out over the weekend hitting nearly 50% of their shots with NC State hitting only 38% yet the game went to the wire. Because of Covid issues, Florida State hasn’t played in over 2 weeks. Their last game was a 10 point loss @ Clemson on December 29th. Tough to not play a game for that long and come back at an optimum level. Despite their 6-3 record, the Wolfpack are +12 PPG on the season while the 5-2 Seminoles are +8 PPG with a very similar strength of schedule. FSU head coach Leonard Hamilton was blunt about the interruption, "In practice we very seldom, ever, ever have a starting lineup together. We never practice who starts together. We practice different lineups and different groups of guys every day. ... Because we have different mixtures. Everybody's got to blend in." FSU won both games last year in tight fashion with margins of 5 & 6 points giving a little extra motivation to the Wolfpack. We think NC State has a great shot to win this one and we’re getting a decent cushion with the pointspread here. |
|||||||
01-12-21 | Nuggets v. Nets +1 | Top | 116-122 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets +1 over Denver Nuggets, 7:30 PM ET - The Nets are off back-to-back losses and look to bounce back at home over Denver. Brooklyn had to play a few games without Kevin Durant who was in Covid protocols, then were without Kyrie Irving for a few games. No Irving here but they do have KD who scored 36-points in their most recent home loss to OKC. Brooklyn is currently in elite company in the NBA with a top 11 efficiency rating in both offense and defense with only the Bucks as the other team that can make that claim. Denver has the 2nd best offensive efficiency numbers in the league, but their defense ranks near the bottom on the NBA at 25th in defensive efficiency. Denver is 4-1 SU their last five games but two of those wins came over a bad Minnesota team, Dallas and Philly were both short-handed with Covid issues and the Knicks are really struggling right now. The current perception is the Nuggets are playing well but that’s a byproduct of weak competition. The Nets are off a pair of losses and motivated at home. Nuggets have not covered as a dog in four straight. |
|||||||
01-12-21 | Duke v. Virginia Tech +2 | Top | 67-74 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
#624 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Virginia Tech +2 over Duke, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Duke has been shaky at best all season long with a 6-2 record and their only top 100 win coming vs Notre Dame. The Devils have played only one road game all season and that was over 3 weeks ago. They have played only 2 games since December 16th due to some covid issues. In their 2 games since December 16th they had to come from 16 points down at home to beat a 2-9 Boston College team by 1 points. Duke also beat Wake Forest at home by 11 but the game was much closer than that as the game was tied midway through the 2nd half and they didn’t take their first 10+ point lead until 3:00 minutes remaining in the game. This is a very young team that isn’t built to win games on the road. They rarely get to the FT line (13% of their points from the line – 327th nationally) and they’re poor at defending the arc. Va Tech is 9-2 on the season and their only loss since December 8th was a 2 point loss @ Louisville. They are very solid 3-point shooting team hitting 36% which matches up very nicely vs this Duke defense. The Hokies have covered 5 of their last 6 and remain very underrated in our opinion. This Duke team is nowhere near as good as their teams yet they are still getting the respect because of their name. They are just 1-6 ATS their last 7 games and we’re getting the better team at home around a pick-em here. Take Virginia Tech. |
|||||||
01-11-21 | Loyola-Chicago -6.5 v. Indiana State | Top | 58-48 | Win | 100 | 6 h 59 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Loyola Chicago -6.5 over Indiana State, 7PM ET - Loyola Chicago was thrown a “Covid-curveball” when they were scheduled to play Missouri Valley leader Drake this past weekend but instead faced Indiana State. Because of a Covid outbreak on Drakes roster the Ramblers were instead forced to change last minute and travel to play Indiana State. In an obvious let down situation Loyola lost to the Sycamores by 5-points with the big difference in the game being a +12 margin of made free throws for Indiana State. Loyola was projected to be one of the best teams in the MVC this season while Indiana State was expected to finish near the bottom. In fact, the Ramblers rate higher in our power ratings than undefeated Drake, who beat Indiana State on their home court by 18 and 7-points. Prior to the upset in the game Sunday to Indiana State, the Ramblers two previous losses were to quality foes Richmond and Wisconsin. Loyola is the most efficient offense in the Missouri Valley and 2nd in defensive efficiency. Indiana State is the 4th worst in OEFF, 6th worst in DEFF. The Ramblers get payback here after the upset Sunday. |
|||||||
01-10-21 | Minnesota v. Iowa UNDER 164 | Top | 71-86 | Win | 100 | 7 h 48 m | Show |
#825/826 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 164 Points – Minnesota @ Iowa, Sunday at 2:30 PM ET - These two met just a few weeks ago and Minnesota pulled the upset 102-95 in OT. The total on that high scoring affair was set at 165 and even with the huge numbers put up in that game, this total is set lower. Hmmm. A closer look reveals that these teams ended regulation at 166 and it took a LOT of crazy stuff happening late in the game to get to that number. The halftime score was 38-33 so on pace for 142. The two teams combined to score 24 points in the last 3+ minutes and 15 points in the last minute of play alone. That game was sitting at 151, looking like an easy under, with 60 seconds remaining. On top of all that, the 2 teams combined to make 52 of their 67 FT attempts in the game (77.6%). The offensive efficiency numbers in that game were through the roof with Minnesota averaging 1.32 points per possession & Iowa 1.23. You can bet both coaches were focused on improving their defense here in the 2nd meeting. With Iowa right around a 10 point favorite, the projected score here is right around 87-77. Minnesota has played 3 road games in Big 10 play and scored 57, 59, and 65 points. They are shooting just 30% from the field in road games. Iowa might have to get to 90 for this to have any chance. While they did that in abundance before conference play, they haven’t reached 90 a single time (in regulation) since Big 10 play began. UNDER is the value play here. |
|||||||
01-09-21 | Suns v. Pacers -3 | Top | 125-117 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Indiana Pacers -3 over Phoenix Suns, 7 PM ET - Two of the best defenses square off here when Phoenix rolls into Indianapolis for a game against the Pacers. Indiana has a scheduling advantage with the Suns come off a game last night in Detroit while the Pacers are rested. This will also be the Suns 3rd game in four days. Early on the Suns led the league in defensive efficiency but they’ve been steadily dropping in that category as the season has gone on. Indiana on the other hand has not and they can defend every position with the 7th best defensive efficiency in the NBA. The Pacers can also shoot it with the 2nd best overall FG% offense in the NBA at 49%. Indiana is 3-0-1 ATS their last four home games against a team with a winning road record and they catch the Suns in a favorable situation. |
|||||||
01-09-21 | Virginia v. Boston College OVER 131 | Top | 61-49 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 43 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 131 Virginia at Boston College, 2PM ET Granted it’s hard to play Over on a Cavaliers game but we’ll do it here with the value in the number. Virginia is one of THE slowest paced teams in college basketball but they have one of the best offensive efficiency ratings at 1.111 points per possession. The Cavs have put up 66 and 70 points in their last two games against Notre Dame and Wake Forest and both ended with 123 total points and 131. Those two teams don’t play anywhere near as fast as Boston College who is 45th in tempo and 84th in average possession length. The Eagles are also 82nd in adjusted offensive efficiency and average 1.066PPP. Virginia will score here too against a BC defense that is last in the ACC in defensive efficiency. The lowest total points scored in a BC game this year is 133 in Game 2 against Rhode Island. The Eagles have totaled 140 or more in 8 straight games. Bet this one Over! |
|||||||
01-08-21 | Thunder v. Knicks -2.5 | Top | 101-89 | Loss | -101 | 8 h 56 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* NY Knicks -2.5 over Oklahoma City Thunder, 7:30 PM ET - The Knicks continue to compete, especially on the defensive end of the court which has been a trademark of head coach Tom Thibodeau wherever he’s been. It’s early in the season but the Knicks are 8th in defensive efficiency this season allowing just 1.062-points per possession. Last season the Knicks were 23rd in DEFF, giving up 1.130PPP. New York is holding foes to under .30% shooting from beyond the arc and below 44% from the field which both rank in the top 4 of the NBA. Oklahoma City has trouble scoring the way it is with the 30th ranked offense in terms of scoring this season at 102PPG. The Thunder don’t shoot well at 43.8% overall and 33% from the 3-point line. OKC is last in the league in offensive efficiency at 1.007PPP. Oklahoma City has the 2nd worst average point differential in the NBA at minus -8.7PPG. The Knicks have only played three home games but are 2-1 SU with impressive wins over the Bucks and Jazz and the lone loss against an elite 76ers team. The Thunder are coming off a road win over the Pelicans, but New Orleans is struggling right now so we’re not impressed. New York continue to be undervalued and we’ll buy low here. |
|||||||
01-08-21 | Youngstown State v. Wright State -11.5 | Top | 74-72 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 59 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Wright State -11.5 over Youngstown State, 7 PM ET - We feel Wright State is the best team in the Horizon conference this season, yet they are looking up at Illinois Chicago and Cleveland State in the standings. Cleveland State is 6-0 in league play but have played three of the worst teams in the league in IUPUI, IPFW and this same Youngstown State team that Wright State plays today. Cleveland State beat this Youngstown State team by 18 and 7-points earlier this season. Wright State had ripped off 7 wins in a row before an upset loss to Oakland their last time out. After beating Oakland, the night before by 29, the Raiders lost by 10 as an 11-point chalk. We’ve said it a million times and will say it again, bet good teams off bad losses! Wright State has an adjusted defensive efficiency rating of 64th and an AEO of 116th. Youngstown State is 2-4 in league play and coming off a pair of home games against UW Green Bay who might be the worst team in the Horizon. YSU beat UWGB in the first meeting by 7, then lost the next day by 10 in OT. That’s the same UWGB team Wright State beat by 14 and 13. Wright State has the 2nd best offensive efficiency rating in the Horizon and will exploit a Penguins team that is last in the conference in defensive efficiency allowing 1.183 points per possession. The key here is whether or not Wright State will be motivated against this lesser opponent and we know they will be off a loss in their last game AND a loss to YSU last year in the final meeting of the season. |
|||||||
01-07-21 | Murray State -2.5 v. Eastern Illinois | Top | 68-74 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Murray State -2.5 over Eastern Illinois, 8:30 PM ET - Murray State was picked as one of the contenders in the Ohio Valley Conference this year but have gotten off to a 1-3 start. Two of those losses came against Austin Peay and Belmont who are currently two of the top five teams in the OVC. The most recent loss for the Racers came to Morehead State at home which broke a 25-game winning streak on their home court. Eastern Illinois is coming off a win at home which extended their home record to 3-0 this season. Closer inspection though shows those three wins came against weak competition that are not on the level as Murray State. The Panthers most recent win came by 6-points over Tennessee Tech who is one of the worst teams in the OVC. EIU struggles to defend with an efficiency rating of 220th allowing 1.011 points per possession. Their EFG% defense is also horrendous ranking 266th. The Panthers offense isn’t much better ranking 152nd in OEFF at less than 1-point per possession. The Racers are similar to the Panthers in terms of offensive efficiency but much better on the defensive end of the floor allowing .975PPP (135th). The Racers have won 41 out of their 50 regular season meetings and 19 of 27 games at Lantz Arena. Up until their loss there at the end of last season, the Racers had won five in a row and 10 of the last 12 on this court. The Racers bounce back here. |
|||||||
01-07-21 | 76ers v. Nets +2.5 | Top | 109-122 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets +2.5 over Philadelphia 76ers, 7:35 PM ET - This is a favorable schedule situation for the Nets as the 76ers played last night making this the back end of consecutive nights. This is also the Sixers 3rd game in four nights. The Sixers have enjoyed some “home cooking” this season with just 3 road games thus far where they are 2-1 SU. Brooklyn is without Kevin Durant here, but the Nets didn’t need him in a blowout the other night of the Jazz. The Nets have some solid depth which is why they don’t need to rely solely on their two SuperStars. Philly holds the advantage on the defensive end of the court but the gap between these two teams in terms of defensive efficiency isn’t great. The Nets though enjoy a definite advantage offensively with the 5th best offensive efficiency number compared to Philadelphia’s 15th (or league average). Philly is just 15-25-1 ATS as a road favorite their last 41 games and fatigue becomes a factor tonight. |
|||||||
01-06-21 | Raptors v. Suns -3 | Top | 115-123 | Win | 100 | 14 h 57 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns -3 over Toronto Raptors, 9 PM ET - We don’t have a reason to believe in the Raptors turning things around anytime soon as rumors are swirling about chemistry issues within the team. Toronto has gotten off to a 1-5 SU start with their only win coming at home against the Knicks. They didn’t show up for a HUGE game against Boston the other night at home when the Celtics looked like a MASH unit and still lost by 12-points. In three road games the Raptors have been beaten by 4 at New Orleans, 7 at Philly and 5 at San Antonio. If you don’t think the Suns are for real, think again. Phoenix has gotten off to a 5-2 start with impressive home wins on their resume over Dallas and New Orleans. The Suns are coming off a home loss which will have them focused and motivated here. Phoenix is doing it with the 4th best defensive efficiency rating in the NBA allowing just 1.045 points per possession and an offense that is ranked 10th overall in offensive efficiency. Toronto is one of the worst offensive teams in the NBA right now (29th in OEFF) and their defense isn’t what it was a year ago with Ibaka and Gasol now in L.A. The numbers haven’t caught up with the Raptors yet so this is a bargain price to play against them. |
|||||||
01-06-21 | Rhode Island v. Richmond UNDER 145 | Top | 73-80 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 16 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 145 Rhode Island @ Richmond, 6PM ET Both teams are average in pace of play or tempo but both are very good when it comes to defensive efficiency. The Spiders have played a very tough schedule yet allow just .947 points per possession which is 61st in the country. Rhode Island is top 100 in defensive efficiency allowing just .908PPP and they hold foes to a miniscule 40% shooting which is 18th best in the nation. Rhode Island is coming off a 162 total point game against St Joes but that was in overtime and the two teams had just 140 total points at the end of regulation. Prior to that game the Rams had totaled less than this number in five straight games. Richmond just played a St Bonaventure team that is similar to Rhode Island and those two teams combined for 135 total points. Atlantic 10 conference games this season are averaging just 134.7PPG, last year that average was 135.6PPG. In their one season clash last season these two teams combined for 130 total points. According to our model this total is set higher than it should be and the value is on the UNDER. |
|||||||
01-05-21 | Connecticut v. Marquette -124 | Top | 65-54 | Loss | -124 | 13 h 26 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10*: 636 Marquette money line -124 over Connecticut, 9 PM ET - Marquette has a solid advantage here with more game experience this season as they have 11 games under their belts compared to just 5 for UConn. Not too mention, two of the Huskies games were against Central Connecticut and Hartford. The Golden Eagles on the other hand have played a brutal schedule with games against Oklahoma State, Wisconsin, UCLA, Creighton, Seton Hall, Xavier and Villanova who all rank in our top 40 power rankings. This is also going to be the Huskies first road game of the season. Despite facing that difficult schedule, Marquette has an adjusted efficiency rating of 31st on offense and 67th on defense. UConn has some very inflated statistics right now but that’s a reflection of who they’ve played. Both have played Creighton this season with Marquette winning on the road and Connecticut losing at home to the Blue Jays. The Golden Eagles have lost two straight at home and won’t lose a third on Tuesday. |
|||||||
01-05-21 | Jazz v. Nets UNDER 231.5 | Top | 96-130 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10*: 501/502 #UNDER 231.5 Utah Jazz @ Brooklyn Nets, 7:35 PM ET - The Nets were already without a starter and one of their leading scorers in Dinwiddie and now must endure without Kevin Durant who is out after testing positive for Covid. The Nets have improved tremendously on the defensive end of the court allowing just 1.083 points per possession which is 13th best in the NBA. Utah is better yet, ranking 11th in DEFF allowing 1.075PPP. Brooklyn is one of the faster paced teams in the NBA ranking 7th BUT that’s a byproduct of playing games against Golden State, Washington, Atlanta twice and Charlotte who are all ranked in the top half of the league in pace of play. Now Utah comes to town who is the 24th slowest paced team in the league. Both teams shoot slightly better than league average, but both are much better in defensive FG% than the league norm. The Jazz are coming off their highest scoring game of the season a 130-point output against the Spurs where they shot the lights out. Those results have driven this line up and gives us tremendous value with the UNDER! |
|||||||
01-04-21 | Colorado State v. San Diego State -8 | Top | 65-78 | Win | 100 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* San Diego State -8 over Colorado State, 9 PM ET - San Diego State was just favored by 9-points at home against Colorado State and lost after leading by 26-points in the game. It was the largest comeback win in D1 this season and also in the last ten seasons. Now we are getting a better number with a highly motivated Aztecs team with payback on their minds. The Rams lost by 20-points to Saint Mary’s earlier this season and we have San Diego State rated significantly higher. Colorado State has played a significantly weaker schedule than SDSU and yet the Aztecs rate exponentially better in both offensive and defensive efficiency ratings. Last season on this same court San Diego State was favored by 13-points against CSU, then this year 9-points and now we have a bargain price in this rematch. The Aztecs are 10-2 SU off a loss their last twelve and have won by an average of 15PPG. San Diego has enjoyed a tremendous home court advantage with a 32-6 SU record since 2018 with a +15.1PPG positive differential. Payback here in this quick turnaround. |
|||||||
01-04-21 | Thunder v. Heat -8 | Top | 90-118 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Miami Heat -8 over Oklahoma City Thunder, 7:30 PM ET - This won’t be the last time we play against the Thunder as we just don’t feel they are going to be very good this season. The Thunder do have two road wins this season at Charlotte and Saturday in Orlando, but this is not a great spot for them. Miami is coming off a horrible offensive showing and loss in Dallas and will look to bounce back with a big home win Monday. Miami has been remarkable off a loss recently with a 28-7 SU run, +7.2PPG. The Heat were 25-7 SU last year at home with an average winning margin of +9.3PPG which was the third best differential in the NBA. The Heat have covered four straight at home as a favorite while Thunder 1-5 ATS last six on the road against a team with a winning record. |
|||||||
01-03-21 | Ohio State v. Minnesota +1 | Top | 60-77 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* #840 Minnesota +1 over Ohio State, 5:30 PM ET - Good spot to play on the Gophers here as they are off a loss at Wisconsin and back at home where they are 34-8 SU since 2018. Minnesota has also won those games since 2018 by an average of 10.7PPG. The Gophers are also 19-11 SU when coming off a loss their last 30. Minnesota has played the tougher schedule than Ohio State who we feel is overrated and played a weaker schedule. The Gophers two losses this season came at two top ranked venues in Illinois and Wisconsin. Between those two losses the Gophers beat three quality foes in Saint Louis, Iowa and Michigan State. Minnesota is 29th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 48th in adjusted defensive efficiency. Ohio State has a pair of losses on their resume too, at Purdue and at Northwestern. The Buckeyes best win this season was at home against Rutgers. OSU has better efficiency rating but that is a byproduct of a weaker schedule. Minnesota has beaten this team two straight times and did so rather handily. Great spot to bet them here. |
|||||||
01-02-21 | Oral Roberts v. Nebraska-Omaha OVER 152.5 | Top | 95-83 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 152.5 Oral Roberts @ Nebraska Omaha, 5 PM ET - The Summit League Conference was the most efficient offensive conference in college hoops a year ago and the 4th fastest. As a whole, the conference also had the #1 ranked effective FG% at 52.7%. Oral Roberts was the 2nd most efficient offense in the league at 1.154 points per possession, Nebraska Omaha was 5th at 1.076PPP. Defensively though these two were two of the three worst in the Summit and gave points up in bunches. NEOM has given up 82 or more points in 5 of their last seven games while Oral Roberts has given up 79 or more in all five games against quality opponents they've faced this season. The kicker here is that both teams want to play fast. The Golden Eagles are the 57th fastest paced team in college per adjusted tempo while Nebraska Omaha is 63rd. Considering how bad each team's defenses are and how fast they want to play this game should get to 159 or more. |
|||||||
01-01-21 | Suns v. Nuggets -4.5 | Top | 106-103 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Denver Nuggets –4.5 over Phoenix Suns, 9 PM ET - Love the scheduling dynamics to play on Denver here and against Phoenix. The Suns have gotten off to a fantastic start this season at 4-1 and have picked up where they left off last season in the Bubble with an 8-0 run. But this is not an ideal situation for them as they played last night and are playing their 3rd game in four days. Not to mention they are playing in the higher altitude of Denver tonight which is never a good thing for unrested teams. The Nuggets meanwhile are home, rested AND coming off a loss in their previous game. Denver is off to a very disappointing 1-3 start this season, 2 of those losses coming at home. The Nuggets are 65-20 SU their last 85 home games with an average margin of victory of +8PPG. When facing an opponent that is unrested the Nuggets are 28-15 SU their last 43. Off a loss Denver is 44-28 their last 72 games. Denver has beaten this Suns team 5 straight and make it six in a row here. |
|||||||
01-01-21 | Bulls v. Bucks OVER 231.5 | Top | 96-126 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 32 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Over 231.5 Chicago Bulls @ Milwaukee Bucks, 8 PM ET - Yes, the number on this game is extremely high compared to an average NBA game but these two teams don’t play at an average pace. The Bulls are the 2nd fastest paced team in the NBA at 108.4 possessions per game. The Bucks prefer to play uptempo also with the 9th fastest pace in the league at 103.4 possessions per game. Milwaukee is the second highest scoring team in the league at 124.2PPG while Chicago is 12th at 113.3PPG. The Bulls have been especially bad defensively allowing 123PPG which is 28th in the NBA. The Bucks haven’t been good on that end of the floor ranking 17th in points allowed per game at 113.4PPG. Against a similar team to the Bulls, Golden State, the Bucks put up 138 points. The Bulls are coming off a 263-point total with Washington last night and this game could get to a number in the 240’s rather easily. Bucks 4-1 Over their last five games on 1 day rest. Bulls 4-0 Over on no rest. Bet Over here. |
|||||||
01-01-21 | Texas-Arlington v. Arkansas-Little Rock -4 | Top | 93-102 | Win | 100 | 6 h 1 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Arkansas Little Rock -4 over Texas Arlington, 5 PM ET - Sun Belt action tips off for both teams with UALR looking to repeat as Champions after a 15-5 conference record a year ago. The Trojans return their 7 top scorers from a year ago but have largely underachieved this season with 3 straight spread losses. But that recent trend has affected the number and we get the opportunity to buy low with UALR. In their last game the Trojans lost to Missouri State as they dressed just 8 players and had to finish the game with 4 on the floor. The players that missed that game on Dec 21 because of Covid protocols are expected back here. The Trojans have beaten UTA four straight times on this floor. Arlington returns some sophomores and juniors to this team and have some juco transplants, but they were still 7th in the Sun Belt a year ago. UTA is on a 3-game winning streak but they came against D2 schools. Arkansas Little Rock will be properly motivated here to start conference play and will hold a decisive advantage on the boards with a big front line going against a smaller lineup for UTA. |
|||||||
12-31-20 | Suns v. Jazz UNDER 219 | Top | 106-95 | Win | 100 | 14 h 58 m | Show |
ASA Play on: UNDER 219 Phoenix Suns @ Utah Jazz, 9 PM ET - We love the two young rising SUPERSTARS in this game with Devin Booker of Phoenix and Donovan Mitchell of Utah. The Suns made some offseason moves in bringing in vets Chris Paul and Jae Crowder who gives them toughness and a defensive mindset. It’s showed early on with Phoenix going Under in all four games this season. The Suns are 2nd in defensive efficiency this season allowing just .992PPP (last year they were 17th). Phoenix is also one of the slowest paced teams in the NBA this year ranking 28th. The Jazz can play some defense too ranking 13th in DEFF which is where they ranked last season. Utah is also the 21st slowest paced team in the league this season at 100.6 possessions per game. The most points scored in a Suns game this year was 216. They have allowed 106 or less in all four games. The Jazz played one higher scoring game against Portland but the Blazers like to play fast, ranking 5th in pace. Both teams are top 8 in points allowed per game this year Under 109. Both are also in the bottom half of the league in 2pt FG% and 3pt %. Bet Under |
|||||||
12-31-20 | Nevada v. New Mexico OVER 147 | Top | 68-54 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 9 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 147 Nevada @ New Mexico, 9 PM ET - Last season an ‘average’ game in the Mountain West Conference was 144 total points. Nevada was the 3rd fastest paced team in the conference while New Mexico was 2nd. Nevada had the 2nd best offensive efficiency rating in the league at 1.107 points per possession. New Mexico was slightly below average in the MWC in OEFF at 1.031PPP. When it came to defense the Wolfpack were 5th in defensive efficiency ratings, the Lobos ranked 9th. New Mexico has been extremely fast paced under Paul Weir and typically score well but their numbers this year are skewed after playing a fantastic defensive team in Boise State (twice). Boise has held 5 of seven opponents to less than 60-points, and currently hold foes to under .960 points per possession. Nevada is currently 65th in adjusted tempo this season and will look to run here after a low scoring game against Air Force. Last season the oddsmakers set Totals of 161 and 153 on the two meetings between these two schools. In those games they combined for 162 and 170 total points. The bet here is OVER! |
|||||||
12-30-20 | Hawks v. Nets -6.5 | Top | 141-145 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets -6.5 over Atlanta Hawks, 7:30PM ET We like to bet on elite teams off a bad loss which is the case in this setting Wednesday as Brooklyn is off a pair of losses and face an unbeaten Hawks team. That 3-0 Atlanta record has kept this line in check, and we will take advantage of a soft number here. The Nets lost in Charlotte two games ago then rested Kyrie and KD in an OT loss to Memphis. The Nets with their pair of “mega-stars” are a team capable of flipping the switch on any given night and in their first two games when motivated they blew out Golden State and Boston. As we mentioned, Atlanta has gotten off to that perfect 3-0 start, but the wins have come against Detroit, Chicago and Memphis who have a combined 2-9 SU record. Yes, the Hawks have improved their roster, but this is still a team that had a negative road differential of minus-13.4PPG during the regulars season a year ago, which was the worst number in the NBA. Brooklyn gets an easy double-digit win here. |
|||||||
12-30-20 | Murray State v. Belmont OVER 145.5 | Top | 55-68 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 145.5 Murray State @ Belmont, 7PM ET These two teams will again be two of the best teams in the Ohio Valley Conference and last season they met three times with Total points scored of: 151, 135 and 160. The game played in Belmont last season had a Total set of 150 but they only managed 135 points. Digging into that game we find the two teams played fast enough, but Murray State had a really poor shooting night at 39% while Belmont hit just 4 of 25 3-pointers. Those numbers were very uncharacteristic of both teams as they were exceptional shooting teams last season, and both were extremely efficient offensively. Belmont will dictate tempo here and want to play fast. The Bruins are a top 100 team in efficiency this season, 58th in adjusted pace and 46th in effective field goal percentage. Murray State has been a little slower than normal this year but will be forced to keep pace with Belmont. The Racers are 108th in OEFF this season and 40th in EFG%. Last season the OVC games averaged 144.5 Total points per game and this contest features two of the best offenses in the league. |
|||||||
12-29-20 | Bucks v. Heat UNDER 223 | Top | 144-97 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 223 Milwaukee Bucks @ Miami Heat, 7:30 PM ET - The Bucks were bounced from the Playoffs last season by this Heat team so expect some high emotions in this early season showdown. The recipe the Heat used to beat the Bucks was defense, defense and more defense. If you eliminate the one overtime period they played, Miami held the Bucks to 104PPG in their 5-game playoff series which is 15 points less than their season average. The Heat were able to dictate pace and they prefer a slow tempo (24th in the NBA a year ago in pace). These were also two of the top nine teams in the league in defensive efficiency a year ago so don’t expect many easy opportunities here. Milwaukee just gave up 130 points to the Knicks and will make defense a priority in this contest. The Under is 9-4 the L13 meetings. The bet here is UNDER |
|||||||
12-29-20 | Central Michigan v. Eastern Michigan UNDER 147.5 | Top | 87-60 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 147.5 Central Michigan @ Eastern Michigan, 7 PM ET - There is some tremendous value in the number here as these two MAC foes met twice last season and the oddsmakers posted Totals of 138.5 on each game. When EMU was the home team, they dictated tempo and the two teams combined for 130 total points. The game at CMU was a little higher scoring with a Total of 143 but that still gets the cash here. The style of play for these teams couldn’t be any different as Central wants to get up and down while Eastern prefers a much slower tempo. In conference games a year ago, Eastern was the slowest team in the MAC and also the worst offensively with a .930 points per possession average in league play. EMU made up for it though with the second-best defensive efficiency number in the MAC. Conversely, Central was the second fastest team in the league but just 8th in OEFF. CMU wasn’t great defensively though ranking 8th in DEFF allowing 1.038PPP. This season Central Michigan has faced another MAC foe in Western Michigan who is very similar to Eastern and those two teams combined for 137 Total points. Our model is projecting 141 total points here which has us on the UNDER. |
|||||||
12-28-20 | Rockets v. Nuggets -7.5 | Top | 111-124 | Win | 100 | 15 h 51 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Denver Nuggets -7.5 over Houston Rockets, 9 PM ET - We think the oddsmakers had the correct number when they opened the Nuggets minus 9 here but since public money has forced the line down to the current number. At the end of last season, the Denver Nuggets were being talked about as possible title contenders with Jokic and Murray playing at a very high level. The Nuggets have gotten off to an 0-2 start with an OT loss to Sacramento and then a beatdown by the Clippers who were playing with revenge from last season’s playoffs. Denver was 26-11 SU at home last season before Covid hit with an average point differential of +4.2PPG. This is not the same Houston Rockets team we saw last year. James Harden is back, but for how long? Houston’s next three best players are not on this current trip as Wall, Cousins and Gordon are home in Covid protocols. The Rockets played well in the opener against Portland but are in a bad spot here. The home team has won four straight meetings in this series by 7 or more points. Denver was 23-13 SU off a loss last season and at 0-2 they’ll play with a little more motivation here. Lay it. |
|||||||
12-28-20 | Michigan State -2.5 v. Minnesota | Top | 56-81 | Loss | -111 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Michigan State -2.5 over Minnesota, 8 PM ET - Why is Michigan State favored on the road after they just lost to Wisconsin and the Gophers are off an upset win of Iowa? Not only is Minnesota coming off that huge win over the #4 Hawkeyes, but they have a date with the Wisconsin Badgers next. Granted, MSU is still a big-name opponent but they have lost two straight and we guarantee the Gophers have noticed. Michigan State is 64-23 SU off a loss with an average margin of victory of +10PPG since 2010. If we look at the Spartans recent numbers off a loss, we find they are 28-11 SU since 2015, +10.4PPG. These two teams are relatively even in defensive efficiency ratings but MSU has a slight advantage offensively and they’ve faced a tougher schedule. Minnesota is 3-2 SU their last five as a home dog but they can’t capture the energy from their home crowd in the current Covid setting. The favorite has covered 7-straight in this series and the Spartans in a desperate situation make it 8 in a row. |
|||||||
12-27-20 | Spurs v. Pelicans -5 | Top | 95-98 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans -5 over San Antonio Spurs, Sunday 7 PM ET - Scheduling favors the Pelicans here as the Spurs are off a game last night with the Raptors while the Pels were home resting. San Antonio has jumped out to a 2-0 start but now face a Pelicans team off a loss in Miami and rested. The Spurs are 9-13 SU their last 22 when playing without rest. You would think the storied franchise of San Antonio would thrive as an underdog but that is not the case. Since 2018 the Spurs are 25-27-1 ATS as a dog and they’ve lost those games by an average of -7.8PPG. New Orleans is an up-and-comer in the West and have several pieces in place to make a strong run at a playoff berth. It starts with Zion Williamson who was on restricted minutes last year but is a full go this season. Add in All-Star Ingram, two great perimeter defensive guards in Bledsoe and Ball and a rim protector in Adams and you have a solid foundation. The play here is New Orleans minus the points. |
|||||||
12-27-20 | Canisius v. Monmouth -5 | Top | 66-84 | Win | 100 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Monmouth -5 over Canisius, 2 PM ET - Great spot to play on Monmouth and fade Canisius in this Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference. Last season these two teams met twice with Monmouth winning by 19 on this floor and 14 at Canisius. It clearly wasn’t a fluke Monmouth won twice considering they shot 49 and 50 percent in the two games and held Canisius to just 40% shooting in both contests. Last season Monmouth was the 3rd most efficient offense in the MAAC and 2nd best in defensive efficiency. Canisius was 7th in OEFF, 8th in DEFF. The Monmouth Hawks just split a pair of games with St Peters who finished second in the conference a year ago. Both games against St Pete’s went down to the wire and were decided by just 2-points. The Golden Griffins of Canisius split a pair of games with Marist to start the season and Marist was 7-23 SU last season and last in the conference. This is a bargain price and we’ll jump on the Hawks! |
|||||||
12-26-20 | Pacers -4.5 v. Bulls | Top | 125-106 | Win | 100 | 15 h 17 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10*: Indiana Pacers -4.5 over Chicago Bulls, 8PM ET The Pacers have enough talent on their roster to be a threat in the East this season, especially with Oladipo back to full strength. The Pacers were just a -7.5-point favorite at home over the Knicks who aren’t much worse than this Bulls team and Indy beat New York by 14. The Bulls lost their season opener to the Hawks by 20, who expect to be better this season, but still aren’t at the Pacers level. Last season the Bulls were 27th in offensive efficiency averaging just 1.067 points per possession while Indiana was 19th at 1.100PPP. Chicago was in the top half of the league in defensive efficiency last season ranking 12th but Indiana was even better yet at 6th. Chicago had a negative point differential of -3.1PPG overall last season which was one of the 8 worst numbers in the league. Indiana beat the Bulls 4 times last season, all by more than this spread and three of which were by 9+ points. Lay the short number with the Pacers. |
|||||||
12-26-20 | Oakland v. Detroit UNDER 155 | Top | 77-75 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* UNDER 155 Oakland @ Detroit Mercy, 4PM ET The oddsmakers have set a bad Total on this game and we plan to take advantage of this number. Our math model projects just 147-points in this Horizon League clash. Let’s start with the Horizon League. Last year conference games averaged 143 total points with Oakland and Detroit the 7th and 5th slowest paced teams in the league. Not only that these two teams were average in terms of offensive efficiency in conference action. In comparison, Detroit just played Wright State who was the 2nd fastest team in the conference last season with the highest offensive efficiency rating. In the two games last week Wright State and Detroit combined for 157 and 163 total points. Oakland is coming off a pair of games against Illinois Chicago last week which ended with 163 and 146 total points being scored. The oddsmakers had set Totals of 142 and 141 on those two games and UIC was similar to Detroit last season in terms of tempo. Last season in the two meetings between these two teams the Vegas numbers were 141 and 137 which are significantly lower than the number set this year. The two games last season finished with 141 and 147 total points. Easy call with UNDER here. |
|||||||
12-25-20 | Nets -2.5 v. Celtics | Top | 123-95 | Win | 100 | 24 h 18 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets -2.5 over Boston Celtics, Friday 5PM ET Let’s be up front on this. Our computer analytics don’t have a lot of data on this game considering Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant are taking the court together for just the second time this season. We can still accurately predict this game based on both teams’ openers though. With 30+ years’ experience handicapping the NBA we know a good team when we see one. In fact, we predicted the Nets to win it all in 2021. The young Nets played extremely well in the Bubble last season with several breakout players stepping up into bigger roles. Even without Durant and Kyrie this team was going to be a playoff team this season. Brooklyn beat this same Celtics team twice last year without KD or Kyrie. Brooklyn had 20 turnovers in their games against Golden State and still won by 26-points. We expect them to clean that part of their game up here against a Celtics team they would love to send a message to early in the season. Boston is off a HUGE win over the Bucks with Tatum banking in a 3-pointer with .04 seconds left in the game. The Celtics have depth concerns already and will be without Kemba Walker here. Last season the Nets were 15-21 SU on the road with an average road differential of minus -2.9PPG (again without KD, Kyrie). This game will have a little extra meaning for Kyrie (former Celtic) and the Nets who are considered the Celtics “little brother” in the East. The oddsmaker clearly have bought into the Nets as this line is nearly the same as the Bucks number in their first game against Boston. |
|||||||
12-25-20 | Wisconsin v. Michigan State +1.5 | Top | 85-76 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 33 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Michigan State +1.5 over Wisconsin, Friday, 12:30PM ET - You couldn’t ask for a better “play on” situation with Michigan State in this contest. The Spartans are off a tough road loss at Northwestern and played as poorly as I’ve ever seen a Tom Izzo team play. In fact, Izzo publicly shamed his team after the game for the horrendous performance. Michigan State is 64-22 SU off a loss with an average margin of victory of +10PPG since 2010. If we look at the Spartans recent numbers off a loss, we find they are 28-10 SU since 2015, +10.4PPG. MSU has been a home underdog JUST 3 times in the last 20 years and you can bet this is a motivating factor. Granted, we can’t ignore the Badgers are 15-6 SU since 2015 as an away favorite but this is not a familiar situation against this level of competition. In fact, the Badgers were favored by 4.5 at Marquette and lost earlier this year. Last season Badgers were a 5-point home underdog to MSU and won 64-63 which makes this line off even more. Prior to last year, the Spartans had won 8 straight in this series. The Michigan State loss to Northwestern doesn’t look as bad now that the Wildcats just won on the road against a good Indiana team. Wisconsin has been at home for most of the start of the season and face a really tough road game here. MSU is 76-9 SU their last 85 at home and won those games by an average of 19PPG. Take Michigan State! |
|||||||
12-23-20 | Illinois -4 v. Penn State | Top | 98-81 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Illinois -4 at Penn State, 6:30 PM ET - We can’t pass on the opportunity to bet on an elite team such as Illinois coming off a loss. The Illini lost last time out at Rutgers by 3-points but were outscored at the free throw line by 14-points. Illinois shot well for the game by hitting 54% from the field, 60% from Downtown. Illinois has the 7th best offensive efficiency rating in college hoops at 1.147 points per possession and rank 37th in defensive efficiency allowing just .922PPP. Penn State is also coming off a loss at Michigan, but they were not expected to win as a 7-point dog. The Nittany Lions also have top 40 ratings in both offensive and defensive efficiency which is why the line on this game is as low as it is. The two previous times the Illini have been beaten this season they bounced back with blowout wins over Duke and Minnesota. Illinois will get a double-digit win here. |
Register for an Account Now for Free Picks and More Special Offers!
ASA Basketball Top Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
02-16-21 | Dayton v. Rhode Island -3 | Top | 89-91 | Loss | -112 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
02-15-21 | Heat +3.5 v. Clippers | Top | 118-125 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
02-15-21 | East Tennessee State v. Chattanooga UNDER 134 | Top | 51-53 | Win | 100 | 21 h 38 m | Show |
02-14-21 | Spurs v. Hornets UNDER 228.5 | Top | 122-110 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
02-14-21 | Minnesota v. Maryland UNDER 138 | Top | 59-72 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
02-13-21 | Weber State +1 v. Montana | Top | 91-82 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
02-12-21 | Pelicans +3 v. Mavs | Top | 130-143 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
02-12-21 | St Bonaventure v. VCU -3 | Top | 64-67 | Push | 0 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
02-11-21 | Raptors v. Celtics -3.5 | Top | 106-120 | Win | 100 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
02-11-21 | Purdue v. Minnesota -3.5 | Top | 68-71 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
02-10-21 | Hawks v. Mavs UNDER 233.5 | Top | 117-118 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
02-10-21 | Rutgers v. Iowa -6.5 | Top | 66-79 | Win | 100 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
02-09-21 | Rockets v. Pelicans UNDER 226.5 | Top | 101-130 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
02-09-21 | VCU v. Dayton +1.5 | Top | 76-67 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
02-08-21 | Cavs +7.5 v. Suns | Top | 113-119 | Win | 100 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
02-08-21 | Oklahoma State v. Kansas -4.5 | Top | 66-78 | Win | 100 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
02-07-21 | Boise State -3.5 v. Nevada | Top | 62-73 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 50 m | Show |
02-07-21 | Celtics v. Suns -3 | Top | 91-100 | Win | 100 | 7 h 34 m | Show |
02-06-21 | Raptors v. Hawks +5 | Top | 121-132 | Win | 100 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
02-06-21 | Wisconsin v. Illinois -3.5 | Top | 60-75 | Win | 100 | 8 h 47 m | Show |
02-05-21 | Raptors v. Nets -4.5 | Top | 123-117 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 25 m | Show |
02-05-21 | Maryland v. Penn State -2 | Top | 50-55 | Win | 100 | 7 h 57 m | Show |
02-04-21 | Warriors +3 v. Mavs | Top | 147-116 | Win | 100 | 9 h 40 m | Show |
02-04-21 | Cincinnati v. Temple +2.5 | Top | 63-60 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
02-03-21 | Mavs v. Hawks UNDER 224 | Top | 122-116 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
02-03-21 | Kentucky v. Missouri UNDER 137 | Top | 70-75 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
02-02-21 | Clippers v. Nets +1.5 | Top | 120-124 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
02-02-21 | North Carolina -3.5 v. Clemson | Top | 50-63 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
02-01-21 | Lakers v. Hawks +6 | Top | 107-99 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
02-01-21 | Murray State v. SE Missouri State UNDER 132.5 | Top | 77-60 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
01-31-21 | Cavs v. Wolves UNDER 219 | Top | 104-109 | Win | 100 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
01-31-21 | Northern Iowa v. Southern Illinois OVER 138.5 | Top | 68-71 | Win | 100 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
01-30-21 | Pistons v. Warriors -5.5 | Top | 91-118 | Win | 100 | 16 h 40 m | Show |
01-30-21 | Minnesota v. Purdue UNDER 141 | Top | 62-81 | Loss | -112 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
01-29-21 | Cavs -109 v. Knicks | Top | 81-102 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
01-29-21 | Ohio v. Buffalo -1.5 | Top | 76-75 | Loss | -117 | 6 h 10 m | Show |
01-28-21 | Morehead State v. Jacksonville State -4.5 | Top | 85-66 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
01-28-21 | Blazers v. Rockets -4 | Top | 101-104 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
01-27-21 | Boise State v. Colorado State +2.5 | Top | 56-78 | Win | 100 | 14 h 15 m | Show |
01-27-21 | Nuggets v. Heat UNDER 219.5 | Top | 109-82 | Win | 100 | 7 h 53 m | Show |
01-26-21 | Mississippi State v. Tennessee UNDER 131 | Top | 53-56 | Win | 100 | 22 h 6 m | Show |
01-26-21 | Western Michigan v. Ohio OVER 141 | Top | 58-81 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
01-25-21 | Nuggets v. Mavs UNDER 223 | Top | 117-113 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
01-25-21 | Syracuse +6.5 v. Virginia | Top | 58-81 | Loss | -109 | 22 h 18 m | Show |
01-23-21 | Pelicans v. Wolves UNDER 221 | Top | 110-120 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
01-23-21 | Duke v. Louisville -1 | Top | 65-70 | Win | 100 | 19 h 54 m | Show |
01-22-21 | Knicks v. Kings -4 | Top | 94-103 | Win | 100 | 16 h 32 m | Show |
01-22-21 | St. Peter's +4.5 v. Siena | Top | 68-62 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
01-21-21 | Pelicans v. Jazz -6.5 | Top | 118-129 | Win | 100 | 15 h 25 m | Show |
01-21-21 | Wichita State +3 v. Memphis | Top | 52-72 | Loss | -103 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
01-20-21 | Spurs v. Warriors UNDER 228 | Top | 99-121 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
01-20-21 | VCU v. St Bonaventure UNDER 140.5 | Top | 54-70 | Win | 100 | 5 h 24 m | Show |
01-19-21 | Pelicans v. Jazz -6 | Top | 102-118 | Win | 100 | 14 h 19 m | Show |
01-19-21 | Colorado State +7.5 v. Utah State | Top | 64-83 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
01-18-21 | Bucks v. Nets +2.5 | Top | 123-125 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
01-18-21 | Florida State v. Louisville -1.5 | Top | 78-65 | Loss | -112 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
01-17-21 | Indiana State v. Illinois State OVER 140.5 | Top | 74-68 | Win | 100 | 4 h 49 m | Show |
01-17-21 | Bulls +7 v. Mavs | Top | 117-101 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
01-16-21 | Baylor -4.5 v. Texas Tech | Top | 68-60 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
01-15-21 | Clippers v. Kings OVER 227.5 | Top | 138-100 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
01-14-21 | Hornets v. Raptors -7.5 | Top | 108-111 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
01-14-21 | Stanford v. Utah +1.5 | Top | 65-79 | Win | 100 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
01-13-21 | Mavs v. Hornets UNDER 220 | Top | 104-93 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
01-13-21 | NC State +4.5 v. Florida State | Top | 73-105 | Loss | -108 | 21 h 54 m | Show |
01-12-21 | Nuggets v. Nets +1 | Top | 116-122 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
01-12-21 | Duke v. Virginia Tech +2 | Top | 67-74 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
01-11-21 | Loyola-Chicago -6.5 v. Indiana State | Top | 58-48 | Win | 100 | 6 h 59 m | Show |
01-10-21 | Minnesota v. Iowa UNDER 164 | Top | 71-86 | Win | 100 | 7 h 48 m | Show |
01-09-21 | Suns v. Pacers -3 | Top | 125-117 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
01-09-21 | Virginia v. Boston College OVER 131 | Top | 61-49 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 43 m | Show |
01-08-21 | Thunder v. Knicks -2.5 | Top | 101-89 | Loss | -101 | 8 h 56 m | Show |
01-08-21 | Youngstown State v. Wright State -11.5 | Top | 74-72 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 59 m | Show |
01-07-21 | Murray State -2.5 v. Eastern Illinois | Top | 68-74 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
01-07-21 | 76ers v. Nets +2.5 | Top | 109-122 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
01-06-21 | Raptors v. Suns -3 | Top | 115-123 | Win | 100 | 14 h 57 m | Show |
01-06-21 | Rhode Island v. Richmond UNDER 145 | Top | 73-80 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 16 m | Show |
01-05-21 | Connecticut v. Marquette -124 | Top | 65-54 | Loss | -124 | 13 h 26 m | Show |
01-05-21 | Jazz v. Nets UNDER 231.5 | Top | 96-130 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
01-04-21 | Colorado State v. San Diego State -8 | Top | 65-78 | Win | 100 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
01-04-21 | Thunder v. Heat -8 | Top | 90-118 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
01-03-21 | Ohio State v. Minnesota +1 | Top | 60-77 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
01-02-21 | Oral Roberts v. Nebraska-Omaha OVER 152.5 | Top | 95-83 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
01-01-21 | Suns v. Nuggets -4.5 | Top | 106-103 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
01-01-21 | Bulls v. Bucks OVER 231.5 | Top | 96-126 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 32 m | Show |
01-01-21 | Texas-Arlington v. Arkansas-Little Rock -4 | Top | 93-102 | Win | 100 | 6 h 1 m | Show |
12-31-20 | Suns v. Jazz UNDER 219 | Top | 106-95 | Win | 100 | 14 h 58 m | Show |
12-31-20 | Nevada v. New Mexico OVER 147 | Top | 68-54 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 9 m | Show |
12-30-20 | Hawks v. Nets -6.5 | Top | 141-145 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
12-30-20 | Murray State v. Belmont OVER 145.5 | Top | 55-68 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
12-29-20 | Bucks v. Heat UNDER 223 | Top | 144-97 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
12-29-20 | Central Michigan v. Eastern Michigan UNDER 147.5 | Top | 87-60 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
12-28-20 | Rockets v. Nuggets -7.5 | Top | 111-124 | Win | 100 | 15 h 51 m | Show |
12-28-20 | Michigan State -2.5 v. Minnesota | Top | 56-81 | Loss | -111 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
12-27-20 | Spurs v. Pelicans -5 | Top | 95-98 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
12-27-20 | Canisius v. Monmouth -5 | Top | 66-84 | Win | 100 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
12-26-20 | Pacers -4.5 v. Bulls | Top | 125-106 | Win | 100 | 15 h 17 m | Show |
12-26-20 | Oakland v. Detroit UNDER 155 | Top | 77-75 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
12-25-20 | Nets -2.5 v. Celtics | Top | 123-95 | Win | 100 | 24 h 18 m | Show |
12-25-20 | Wisconsin v. Michigan State +1.5 | Top | 85-76 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 33 m | Show |
12-23-20 | Illinois -4 v. Penn State | Top | 98-81 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show |