Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-06-21 | Blazers v. Clippers -5.5 | Top | 116-133 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* LA Clippers -5.5 over Portland Trailblazers, 10:10 PM ET - This is a great spot to fade Portland for a couple different reasons. The Blazers are off a 133-85 blowout of the Thunder and will come into this game with a false sense of security. OKC is 20-30 SU on the season and easily one of the worst teams in the NBA. In fact, the Blazers are 4-1 SU their last five games, but all four wins have come against teams with a combined 86-122 record. Their loss in that five-game stretch came by 18 to Milwaukee who is on the same level as this Clippers team. The other part of this equation is Jusif Nurkic, the Blazers center, who played in the last five games but is out with another injury here. When betting the Clippers, you need to know who’s playing and who isn’t but tonight they will have both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George in the lineup which is key. Los Angeles is 18-8 SU at home on the season with the 4th best home point differential in the league at +7.4PPG. Portland has a winning record of 16-10 SU on the year against the West, but their margin of victory is a negative -0.2PPG. In comparison the Clippers are 19-10 against the West with a plus +4.5PPG average MOV. The Clippers are 20-13 as a favorite of 5 or more points this season. Bet the Clippers. |
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04-05-21 | Baylor +4.5 v. Gonzaga | Top | 86-70 | Win | 100 | 24 h 33 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON Baylor +4.5 over Gonzaga, Monday at 9:20 PM ET - Our power ratings have Gonzaga as a slight 2 point favorite on a neutral court so we feel there is value with Baylor here. We’ve spoken of the Bears Covid break a number of times this tourney and we feel that situation has this team undervalued. Prior to their 3-week hiatus we had Baylor and the Zags rated almost dead even with our power ratings. Baylor was 17-0 before their break with 15 of those wins coming by double digits and the other 2 coming by 8 points each. They were dominant in the Big 12, one of the top few leagues on the country. They lost much of their momentum not playing or practicing for the 3 week span in February and lost 2 games leading into the Big Dance. They have since regained their form and rolled through the NCAA tourney winning 5 games by an average of 15 PPG including topping 4 top 20 teams (Ken Pom ratings). They led by at least 18 points in 4 of their 5 tourney games and their largest deficit has been just 7 points. The Bears defense has been fantastic holding 4 of their 5 opponents under 1.00 points per possession and they’ve been lock down from beyond the arc allowing only 27% in the tourney. Offensively they rank 2nd nationally in efficiency and #1 in 3-point percentage. The Bears have already faced 3 of the top 15 defenses in the nation in the NCAA tourney and scored 76, 78, and 81 points in those 3 games and averaged at least 1.19 PPP in each of those 3 games. They are tough to stop with 5 regulars hitting at least 39% from behind the arc. Gonzaga showed some vulnerability to a solid 3-point shooting team on Saturday barely getting by UCLA in OT and allowing the Bruins to hit 47% of their 3’s. UCLA was ranked 35th nationally in 3-point percentage and the Zags had trouble containing their guards and now they face the best 3-point shooting team in the nation with multiple top notch guards including All Americans Butler and Mitchell. Gonzaga hasn’t seen a team that shoots this well all season long. They have faced just ONE team this year that ranks inside the top 20 in three point shooting and that was Iowa early in the season and the Hawkeyes scored 88 points on them. Gonzaga is great offensively as well but the way the Baylor defense has been playing, we like them to be able to do enough on that end of the court to stay in this game the entire way. The way to potentially beat Gonzaga is to keep up with them offensively which UCLA nearly did on Saturday. Baylor is a better offensive team than UCLA and they’ll give the Bulldogs all they can handle here. The Bears haven’t been an underdog the entire season and their lowest number as a favorite was -4 and that was vs a difficult Big 12 slate. Now they are getting +4.5 which is a full 8.5 points off their lowest spread of the season. We fully believe Baylor has a great shot to win this game so we’ll grab the generous points. |
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04-04-21 | Magic v. Nuggets UNDER 214 | Top | 109-119 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 214 Orlando Magic @ Denver Nuggets, 10:10 PM ET - The last place the Magic need to play right now is in the higher altitude against the red-hot Denver Nuggets. The Magic currently have 8 healthy players and it showed how tough it is to play an NBA game with a limited roster in a blowout loss to the Jazz. The Magic scored just 91-points in that game and have scored 103 or less in regulation in four straight games. Orlando has failed to reach 100 points in 5 of their last ten games and in their last five games they have the 4th worst offensive efficiency numbers in the NBA. Orlando gutted their roster before the trade deadline which included trading Aaron Gordon to this Nuggets team. Denver is coming off a big win over the Clippers and will look past this Orlando team that is really struggling. The Nuggets are the second slowest paced team in the NBA and prefer a half-court type game where Jokic is more effective. Denver doesn’t have great defensive efficiency numbers, but they are 9th in points allowed per game at 110PPG. Orlando’s offense is 29th in the NBA at just 104.2PPG and that’s when they had a much better roster. According to our math model this game should end with 209 total points. Bet Under |
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04-03-21 | Houston v. Baylor -5 | Top | 59-78 | Win | 100 | 47 h 40 m | Show |
#802 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Baylor -5 over Houston, Saturday at 5:14 PM ET - Houston has had an easy road to this point and we think it ends on Saturday. The Cougars NCAA tourney opponents have been Cleveland State (170th on Ken Pom), Rutgers (38th), Syracuse (41st), and Oregon State (48th). As you can see they have yet to play anyone ranked inside the top 38 nationally and 2 of those wins were tight beating Rutgers by 3 (Houston trailed by 10 with less than 8:00 remaining in the game) and Oregon State by 6. Baylor, on the other hand, has played 3 teams ranked inside the top 20 in the Dance (Wisconsin, Arkansas, and Villanova) and all of their wins have come by 9 points or more with 3 coming by double digits. Baylor has absolutely earned their way to this point while Houston has had a number of breaks. We’ve mentioned it a few times during the tourney but Baylor was a perfect 17-0 and considered the top team in the country with Gonzaga for much of the season. They went into a 3 week Covid break with no games and almost no practices during the month of February and they came out of that rusty losing 2 of their final 7 games through the Big 12 tourney. Well they are back to their early season form as we mentioned handling 3 very good teams with ease. While Houston has better overall defensive numbers on the season, we rate these 2 defenses about dead even. Baylor played the much tougher offensive schedule and struggled defensively when coming back from Covid which hurt their overall numbers. During the Dance they’ve allowed just 43% from the field and 3 of their 4 opponents have failed to get to 1.00 points per possession. The Cougars have also played very well defensively in the tournament but they have yet to face an offense ranked higher than 23rd in efficiency the Dance. Now they face a Baylor offense that is 3rd nationally in efficiency, 7th in eFG%, and 1st in 3-point percentage hitting a ridiculous 41% of their shots from deep as a team. The Bears have a big edge offensively in this game. Houston is not a very good shooting team ranking below 110th in eFG%, 2-point %, and 3-point % nationally. They rely on offensive rebounding to get extra possessions and they are very good at it. The problem here is Baylor is the 7th best offensive rebounding team in the country so while Houston will do damage on the offensive glass, so will the Bears. No advantage there. Since their opening win of the tournament vs Cleveland State, the Cougars are averaging just 64 PPG in their last 3 which they were able to win by shutting down the opposing offense. That won’t happen here. Baylor is averaging 83 PPG on the season and they’ve scored at least 76 points in 3 of their 4 tourney games. We have a hard time believing Houston can keep up offensively in this game. While Houston has had a fairly easy run to the Final 4, they’ve also failed to play a team currently ranked inside the top 20 (Ken Pom) all season long! As we mentioned above, the Bears have played 3 of those teams (ranked inside top 20) in the Big Dance alone. Now the Cougs face #2 Baylor who is back at the top of their game. We’ll lay the points here as Baylor moves on to the National Championship game. |
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04-02-21 | Hornets v. Pacers -4 | Top | 114-97 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Indiana Pacers -4 over Charlotte Hornets, 8:10 PM ET - We love the spot here to play the Pacers and fade the Hornets. Charlotte is coming off a big game last night against the Nets which makes this a second consecutive game in two days. Not only that but its also their 3rd game in four days. Charlotte is just 4-5 SU when playing without rest and 3-5 SU when playing in this situation of 3rd game in four nights. Charlotte is a respectable 11-13 SU on the road with a negative differential of minus -2.3PPG but this is a bad spot for them. Indiana is coming off a home loss to Miami on March 31st so they’ve had a full day to stew about it and will be ready to go here. The Pacers suffered through several key injuries early on but are now getting healthy with Caris Levert back in the mix. Levert is averaging 17PPG and gives the Pacers much needed scoring they’ve lacked. Indiana has covered 4 straight at home over the Hornets and we like them to get another cover here. |
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04-01-21 | Warriors v. Heat UNDER 220 | Top | 109-116 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Under 220 Golden State Warriors @ Miami Heat, 8:10 PM ET - Yes, the Warriors have Steph back in the lineup but we still like Under in this one. Sure, the Warriors are one of the fastest paced teams in the league but their offensive efficiency ratings is 22nd at 1.096 points per possession. They still play defense though with the 8th best defensive efficiency rating allowing only 1.105PPP. Miami is always good defensively with the 6th best overall defensive efficiency and in their last five games they are the second slowest paced team in the league at just 94.1 possessions per game. The Heat have really struggled offensively this season with the 24th worst offensive efficiency rating and in their last three games they haven’t topped 105 points. Golden State has been a solid proposition as an Under on the road with a 9-2 record their last 11 away from home. Miami has also stayed Under in 5 of their last seven at home against a team with a sub .500 road record. The call here is Under! |
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03-31-21 | Mavs v. Celtics +1 | Top | 113-108 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 33 m | Show |
ASA top play on Boston Celtics +1 over Dallas Mavericks 7:40PM ET The Celtics are off a disappointing home loss to the Pelicans and an uncharacteristic bad shooting night of 43% overall and 33% from beyond the arc. Boston is the 13th best overall shooting team in the league and 8th best 3-point shooting team so expect a return to normal tonight. Boston is 7-2 SU at home off a loss this year and considering the line on this game, all they have to do is essentially win and we get a cover. Dallas is coming off a win over the Thunder, but everyone is beating OKC these days so we’re not overly impressed. The Mavericks have played well on the road this year with a 13-11 SU record but only 6 of those wins have come against a team with a current winning record. Earlier this season the C’s were -2.5-points in Dallas and lost outright so the correction in the line for this game is not what it should be. Take Boston at home in a bounce back situation playing with revenge. |
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03-30-21 | USC +8.5 v. Gonzaga | Top | 66-85 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 49 m | Show |
#657 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* USC +8.5 over Gonzaga, Tuesday at 7:15 PM ET - We feel that besides Baylor, this USC team matches up as well as anyone with Gonzaga. We like the Trojans to give the undefeated Zags a run for their money tonight. We realize Gonzaga has beaten every team they’ve played, with the exception of West Virginia, by double digits. Let’s also keep in mind this USC team will be the best and most talented team the Zags have faced this season. Trojan center Mobley is projected as a top 3 pick in the NBA draft and will give Drew Timme and company all they can handle inside. The Zags score the vast majority of their points inside with 57% coming inside the arc (29th nationally) and just 25% from 3-point land (309th nationally). This USC defense is very good (4th nationally in defensive efficiency) and matches up perfectly ranking #1 in the country at defending inside the arc allowing opponents just 41% shooting. Mobley is a supreme defender and shot blocker and Gonzaga has not seen a team that defends inside like the Trojans. The Bulldogs offense has been great this year but they’ve only seen 2 defenses all SEASON ranked in the top 25 in efficiency (St Mary’s and Kansas). This USC defense is a level up from anything they’ve faced. Gonzaga has topped Oklahoma (7th best team in the Big 12) & Creighton (3rd best team in the Big East) their last 2 games. Impressive but how about USC’s current run? They have topped Drake (2nd best team in the MVC), Kansas, and Oregon all by double digits as well and by an average of 21 PPG! They are a very good offensive team (14th nationally in efficiency) that is peaking right now scoring 85 vs Kansas & 82 vs Oregon in their last 2 games. The Trojans are the 2nd tallest team in the nation giving them the height advantage which is a rarity vs Gonzaga. Not only will they give the Bulldogs a test defensively, USC is a team that can keep up on the scoreboard with their offense humming right now averaging 80 PPG, 52% shooting overall, and 47% from 3 over their last 5 games. The Pac 12 has shown to be a top notch conference with 3 teams landing in the Elite 8 and the Trojans are the best of the bunch in that league. This one goes to the wire and we’ll gladly take the points with USC. |
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03-30-21 | Hornets -3.5 v. Wizards | Top | 114-104 | Win | 100 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Charlotte Hornets -3.5 over Washington Wizards, 7:10 PM ET - This is a great spot to play on the Hornets and fade the Wizards. Charlotte is rested and off a loss, while the Wiz are coming off a big emotional win last night against the Indiana Pacers. Westbrook expended a ton of energy with a monster 35-point, 21 assists and 14 rebound night. The Wiz shot ridiculously well at 56% (season average is 46.8% or around league average) and will have a tough time duplicating that here. Charlotte is 3-1 SU their last four games and they even played well in a 4-point overtime loss to the Phoenix Suns. The Hornets are just 2-3 SU their last five road games but the three losses came to the Nuggets, Lakers (w/James) and Clippers. Washington is just 10-14 SU at home with a negative differential of -2.4PPG which is 22nd in the league. The line on this game is an indicator that Beal will not be in the lineup again for the Hornets so the play here is on Charlotte. |
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03-29-21 | Arkansas v. Baylor UNDER 148.5 | Top | 72-81 | Loss | -113 | 14 h 24 m | Show |
#653/654 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 148.5 Points – Arkansas vs Baylor, Monday at 10 PM ET - Baylor’s defense was outstanding prior to their extended Covid interruption which lasted from February 2nd – February 23rd. Coming back from that, they didn’t play very well on the defensive end of the court. The Bears held only 2 of their next 7 opponents under 70 points. Prior to their Covid break they had held 14 of their 17 opponents to less than 70 points. Head coach Scott Drew mentioned that because they had to play so many games in a short period of time after coming back, they didn’t get to practice much which really affected their defensive efficiency. After the Big 12 tourney, the Bears had a full week to practice and their defense is back to elite form. They have allowed 55, 63, and 51 points in their 3 NCAA tourney games including games vs solid offensive teams Villanova & Wisconsin. None of those 3 opponents topped 0.98 points per possession and those 3 teams combined to shoot just 41%. Arkansas is known as a fast paced, high scoring team, however their defense is far superior to their offense. The Razors defense ranks 9th nationally in efficiency while their offense is 46th. They have allowed 66, 68, and 70 points in their 3 tournament games, all which went UNDER the total by a combined 30 points. Their most recent game vs a very fast paced and poor defensive team (Oral Roberts was the worst defensive team in the entire tourney) the final score was just 72-70. Both offenses have scored well under their season averages in the tourney with Arkansas putting up 75 PPG in 3 games (season average is 82 PPG) and Baylor scoring 72 PPG (season average is 83 PPG). Both offenses will be facing one of the better defenses they’ve seen this season and we expect this one to be played in the low 70’s at best. Take the UNDER. |
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03-29-21 | Wolves v. Nets OVER 239 | Top | 107-112 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 46 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 239 Minnesota Timberwolves @ Brooklyn Nets, 7:30 PM ET - These are two of the faster paced teams in the NBA which translates to a lot of possessions and more scoring opportunities. Minnesota is 4th in pace, Brooklyn is 13th. The Nets are the #1 offensive efficiency team in the NBA at 1.184-points per possession and they should put up 130 or more here against the Wolves defense that is 27th in the league in defensive efficiency allowing 1.147-PPP. Speaking of defense, or lack of, the Nets aren’t much better than the Wolves in DEFF ranking 25th. The number on this game is an indicator Kyrie Irving will be back in the lineup with Harden which means Brooklyn is going to score at will here. If the Wolves get to 113 here, like we feel they will, this game goes Over. |
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03-29-21 | Oregon State v. Houston -7.5 | Top | 61-67 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Houston -7.5 over Oregon State, 7:15 PM ET - Oregon State has been a fantastic story this tournament but the Cinderella story is about to end tonight. Clearly the Pac12 has represented extremely well in the post season but the Beavers were the worst of the bunch to get in. Consider this, the Beavers were just plus +6 points against Oklahoma State (ranked 63rd) and +7 versus Loyola Chicago (ranked 10th per KenPom) and now a slightly bigger dog against the 3rd ranked team in Houston. Even though Loyola had some better season statistics, they played a much weaker schedule than say Oklahoma State so let’s look specifically at that game for a comparison with this contest. Oregon State really struggled with Oklahoma State’s pressure defense for a large part of the game but the Cowboys literally couldn’t make a shot, shooting just 28% in the game. That was an aberration considering the Beavers rank 203rd in FG% defense. Houston is 90th in the nation in forcing turnovers, has the 6th best defensive efficiency rating in college hoops and is #1 defensively in EFG%. The Oregon State will have a hard time getting going offensively against this defense, especially considering they are 213th in points scored per game, 226th in field goal percentage at just 43.2%. Houston has the 8th best offensive efficiency numbers in the nation in large part to their offensive rebounding which is 2nd in the country. Houston just beat a red hot Syracuse team handily and will get a double-digit win in this one. |
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03-28-21 | Oregon v. USC -2 | Top | 68-82 | Win | 100 | 15 h 47 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* USC -2 over Oregon, 9:45 PM ET - When these two teams last met USC beat Oregon 72-58. That was Oregon’s last regular season loss in their last eleven regular season games (they did lose to Oregon State in the conference tourney). The Trojans have a big edge in this game on the interior with the Mobley brothers who stand 6’10 and 7-feet tall. USC is 24th in rebounding compared to a Ducks team that ranks 253rd. USC is great defensively with the #1 ranked 2-point percentage defense in the country allowing just 41.4%. The Trojans have the 5th best defensive efficiency in the nation allowing just .88-points per possession. In comparison the Ducks rank 52nd in DEFF. Offensively these two teams are relatively even when if comes to efficiency ratings as the Ducks check in 10th, but USC is 15th. So, while the offenses are similar, the defenses are not with USC holding a sizable advantage. USC has covered 5 of the last six meetings and the favorite has covered 9 of the last eleven. We like USC and the short number here. |
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03-28-21 | Hawks +4.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 102-126 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Atlanta Hawks +4.5 over Denver Nuggets, 9:10 PM ET - The trade deadline came and went and both teams were involved in some deals as the Hawks were rumored to be set to trade John Collins but instead made a minor move with Rondo. Denver made a big splash by landing McGee from Cleveland and Aaron Gordon from Orlando. We actually feel the Nuggets might have just made the moves needed to win the West. The Nuggets will go through a minor adjustment period injecting Aaron Gordon into the lineup and playing him starter minutes. Atlanta has quietly played well by winning 9 of the last eleven games and the two losses were close at the Clippers and at the Kings (who are playing well right now). Denver has also played well of late but are coming off a three-game road trip and have a much bigger game on deck with Philadelphia. The Nuggets are just 1-5 SU coming off a win and the Hawks have covered 9 of the last eleven meetings with Denver. Denver also just 2-6 ATS their last eight home games as a favorite. |
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03-27-21 | Grizzlies v. Jazz UNDER 228.5 | Top | 110-126 | Loss | -113 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 228.5 Memphis Grizzlies @ Utah Jazz, 9:10 PM ET - This is a quick turnaround game as these teams just played last night and totaled 231 Total points. The Jazz built a big lead, but the Grizzlies hung in there and almost pulled off the road win. The two teams combined for 195 total field goal attempts which is 15 more combined attempts than these two averages for the season. One anomaly from last night’s game is the Grizzlies 3-point shooting of 40% which is higher than normal considering they are the 23rd worst team in the NBA in 3PT%. Both teams have been lights out defensively of late with the 8th and 9th best defensive efficiency numbers in the NBA over their last five games. When these teams have played without rest this season the Grizzlies have averaged 226.9PPG, Utah has averaged 223.3PPG. The Jazz are 5-2 to the Under this season when playing without rest, Memphis has stayed Under in 3 straight in this scheduling situation. The Bet here is UNDER |
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03-27-21 | Mississippi State v. Louisiana Tech UNDER 136.5 | Top | 84-62 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 27 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 136.5 LA Tech vs Mississippi State, 3 PM ET - This is an interesting situation as LA Tech played another SEC opponent in the opening round of this Tournament against Mississippi. We can make a great comparison from that game as Ole’Miss and Mississippi State have some very similar characteristics in terms of offensive and defensive efficiency along with pace of play. La Tech and Mississippi combined for 131 total points. The (MSU) Bulldogs are 301st in pace or tempo and want nothing to do with a faster paced game. Miss State is coming off a game against Richmond who is like LA Tech and those two combined for 135 total points. These two teams are both top 53 in terms of defensive efficiency ratings allowing less than .950-points per possession. Mississippi State has the 11th best EFG% defense in college basketball while Louisiana Tech ranks 43rd in that same category. It’s getting later in the tournament and pressure is starting to mount. We’ll bet UNDER here. |
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03-26-21 | Nuggets -1.5 v. Pelicans | Top | 113-108 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Denver Nuggets -1.5 over New Orleans Pelicans, 8:10 PM ET These two teams met a few games ago with the Pelicans winning 113-108 in Denver and payback is on hand tonight. As of this posting we don’t know if the Nuggets will have their new additions of Aaron Gordon or Javale McGee, but we are factoring in they don’t play, if they do, that’s a bonus. Denver is coming off a horrible loss to Toronto, giving up 135 points to the Raptors in a blowout. The Nuggets are 7-3 SU their last ten games overall, 6-1 SU their last seven on the road with an impressive win over the Bucks. Denver is 12-5 SU off a loss this season and the number is obviously low enough here to get a road win and cover. New Orleans has won two straight and are coming off a big win over the Lakers, but they are just 5-5 SU their last ten. The Pelicans are the 28th ranked defensive efficiency team in the NBA and will have a hard time containing the Nuggets 4th ranked offensive efficiency team here. Denver has the 6th best road differential in the NBA at +4.4PPG which is good enough for a cover here. Bet the visitor. |
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03-25-21 | Louisiana Tech v. Western Kentucky UNDER 136.5 | Top | 72-65 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 17 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 136.5 Louisiana Tech vs Western Kentucky, 10 PM ET - This will be the third meeting of the season for these two Conference USA rivals with the two teams splitting the regular season clashes. We are not concerned with who will win this showdown but will invest in how many points they score. In the first two games at Western Kentucky these two combined for 130 and 121 Total points. Now we get a game on a neutral floor where neither team has any shooting advantages. When it comes to tempo the Hilltoppers are 210th in the nation in pace of play while LA Tech ranks 129th. Both teams are OK when it comes to offensive efficiency but what both do well is play defense. LA Tech was 28th in the nation in defensive efficiency allowing just .922 points per possession while WKU was 89th at .973PPP. Tech had the best effective field goal percentage D in the conference, Western was 3rd. The entire conference was 25th nationally (out of 32) conferences in efficiency ratings and 14th in pace. If we eliminate one OT game in this rivalry, we see they’ve combined to score 137 or less points in 5 of the last six meetings. Bet UNDER! |
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03-25-21 | Wizards v. Knicks OVER 225.5 | Top | 102-106 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 225.5 Washington Wizards vs NY Knicks, 7:40 PM ET - These two teams just met the other night and they combined for 244 total points in the Knicks 131-113 win. New York shot exceptionally well in that game hitting over 50% from the field and beyond the arc but is that a huge surprise given the Wizards defense? Washington is 30th in points allowed per game, 25th in field goal percentage defense and 27th in defending the 3-point line. The Knicks have struggled at times this season offensively, but they are the 10th best 3-point shooting team in the NBA at 37.7%. We know New York plays slow and don’t have great offensive numbers but the Wizards are the fastest paced team in the league at 104.2 possessions per game and rank 7th in scoring at 114.9PPG. The Knicks are on a 4-1 Over streak as a favorite, 7-1 Over their last eight following a win of 10+ points. The Wiz are on a 4-1 Over run as an Underdog and 4-1 Over off a loss. This total is only a few points higher than league average so its not like we are asking them to score a ridiculous number of points. Just be slightly better than average and we get a win. |
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03-24-21 | Hawks -2.5 v. Kings | Top | 108-110 | Loss | -112 | 15 h 44 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Atlanta Hawks -2.5 over Sacramento Kings, 10 PM ET - The “tell” on this game is the number as Vegas is trying to bait you into betting the Kings as a home dog. We won’t fall into that trap and will take the red hot Hawks here. Atlanta is coming off a disappointing loss to the Clippers where they led by 22-points in the 3rd quarter but ended up losing by 9-points. Prior to that game the Hawks had won 8 straight games, four of which were on the road. Sacramento is playing better of late with wins in 3 of their last four games but they haven’t been consistent, especially at home where they are 9-12 SU with the 27th worst average loss margin in the NBA of minus -4.9PPG. Sacramento has the worst defensive efficiency rating in the NBA overall and at home where they allow 121PPG. Atlanta is 11-12 SU on the road this season but do have a positive road differential which ranks 13th best in the league. Yes, this is a quick turnaround game and the Hawks just beat the Kings but Atlanta has been in California for a few days and the Kings are coming off a 6-game East coast road trip. Atlanta is a perfect 4-0 ATS when favored on the road this year. Lay it. |
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03-24-21 | Coastal Carolina v. Pepperdine OVER 151.5 | Top | 61-84 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 151.5 Coastal Carolina vs Pepperdine, 8 PM ET - We feel Vegas had the right number when they opened this and will take the added value with the Over here. Consider this, Pepperdine and Bellarmine just played and combined for 153 total points and Bellarmine is the 315th slowest paced team in the nation. Coastal is coming off an OT game against Stetson who ‘average’ in pace of play at 194th and those two schools scored 149 total points. What we have tonight are two teams that want to play fast. Coastal is 49th in pace of play while Pepperdine is 46th. Pepperdine has scored 80+ points in 6 of their last eight games including both games on this tournament. Coastal just played Bryant two games ago and those two teams combined for 175 total points and Bryant was a faster paced team much like Pepperdine. With both teams playing their 3rd game in 3 days we don’t see much defense being played here. |
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03-23-21 | Pepperdine -6 v. Bellarmine | Top | 82-71 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Pepperdine -6 over Bellarmine, Tuesday 8:30 PM ET - Strength of schedule and the level of competition clearly favors the Waves of Pepperdine here as they’ve played the 83rd toughest schedule this season compared to Bellarmines’ 285th. Not only have the Knight’s played a weak schedule but against that weaker competition they still rank 295th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.081-points per possession. Bellarmine has the 333rd ranked defensive EFG% against at 55.1%. They are also the 336th worst team in the nation in defending 3-pt shooting. That doesn’t bode well against a Pepperdine team was 89th in offensive efficiency this season and 135th in EFG% offensive at 50.6%. The Wave can also defend with the 132nd rated defensive efficiency unit allowing 1.003PPP. That’s even more impressive considering the Wave play in the West Coast Conference which ranks 7th in EFG% offense and features 5 teams that rank in the top 101 in offensive efficiency. Pepperdine has some quality wins and close losses on their resume and are the superior team. Bellarmine has one win over a team ranked higher than 200th and that was Army (196th) last time out. Lay the points with Pepperdine. |
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03-23-21 | Nuggets v. Magic UNDER 217 | Top | 110-99 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Under 217 Denver Nuggets @ Orlando Magic, 7 PM ET - The Nuggets are the 2nd slowest paced team in the NBA while the Magic are the 19th slowest. That means this is going to be a slower tempo game with less possessions than an average NBA contest. The Nuggets are one of the higher scoring teams in the NBA because of fantastic offensive efficiency numbers, but Orlando is not with the 27th worst OEFF ratings in the league. The Magic are 29th in scoring, 30th in field goal percentage shooting and 20th in 3-point shooting. Orlando has scored less than 98 points in 4 of their last five games but have also allowed less than 113 in six straight. The betting indicators also support our Under wager here. Bet UNDER |
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03-22-21 | Hawks v. Clippers -6 | Top | 110-119 | Win | 100 | 28 h 14 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* LA Clippers -6 over Atlanta Hawks, Monday 10 PM ET - The Atlanta Hawks are rolling right now and are coming off a HUGE win over the Lakers. Because of their current 8-game winning streak this line is a few points lower than it should be. But lets also consider who the Hawks have beaten in this streak. They beat the Lakers after LeBron was injured just 10-minutes in. They have wins over OKC, Houston, Cleveland, Sacramento, Toronto, Orlando and Miami. Other than Miami, none of those teams have a winning record and four of those teams are in the bottom 6 of the entire NBA. The Clippers are 14-6 SU at home with the 5th best point differential of +7.3PPG which gets a cover here. L.A. has the 2nd best offensive efficiency numbers at home and average 117PPG on their home court. Atlanta is 19th in road defensive efficiency rankings and will have a hard time stopping the Clippers in this one. LA is rested and ready…LAY IT! |
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03-22-21 | Abilene Christian v. UCLA -4.5 | Top | 47-67 | Win | 100 | 23 h 34 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UCLA -4.5 over Abilene Christian, Monday 5:15 PM ET - This line is slightly higher than we anticipated but it’s warranted based on how well the Bruins are currently playing. UCLA is one of those uber talented team that didn’t play up to their potential at times this season with nine losses. But when the Bruins have been right, they’ve been very good and the first two games in the tourney showed just how well this team can play. UCLA is 12th in offensive efficiency at 1.155-points per possession and 82nd in defensive efficiency allowing just .972PPP. What makes those numbers even more impressive is that it comes against the 34th toughest schedule in the nation. AS we’ve seen in the first two games of the Tourney the Bruins can go inside, make shots on the perimeter and are physical on the defensive end of the floor. Abilene Christian has some impressive statistics overall and play high pressure defense and lead the nation in forced turnovers. The Wildcats were 24th in DEFF allowing .913PPP but were 165th in OEFF. The problem with their overall numbers though is they’ve played the 315th WORST schedule in college basketball. In fact, the Wildcats DEFF numbers are VERY misleading as they’ve faced 12 teams that rank 270th or worse in offensive efficiency. Again, the Bruins rank 12th in that category. Abilene Christian is coming off maybe their biggest win in school history over Big Brother Texas and will let down here against a Bruins team capable of beating most teams in the tourney the way they are playing right now. |
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03-21-21 | Lakers v. Suns -3 | Top | 94-111 | Win | 100 | 23 h 12 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns -4 over LA Lakers, 10:15 PM ET - Several Sports Books have come out with a line on this game of Phoenix minus 4-points but we don’t expect that to be the number at tipoff. The Lakers are without LeBron James and Anthony Davis which makes them a below average team in the West. The Suns on the other hand are one of the best in the West and would have been favored by 4-points here had LeBron been playing. With that said we will lay up to 9-points with the Suns if this line moves. Phoenix is 14-8 SU at home with the 3rd best average point differential of plus +7.5PPG on the season. The Lakers are just 4-5 SU their last nine road games and only two of those wins came against a team with an above .500 record. The Lakers are just 3-3 SU when playing without rest this season and this factor becomes magnified now without LeBron in the lineup. The Suns take care of business against the leagues best teams as they hold a 11-1 ATS record their last twelve games against teams with an above .600 winning percentage. |
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03-21-21 | Oregon State +6.5 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 80-70 | Win | 100 | 23 h 29 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Oregon State +6.5 over Oklahoma State, 9:40 PM ET - We’ve been high on the Big 12 Conference all season long, but the Pac 12 Conference has played well in the Tourney with UCLA beatings Michigan State in the play in game, Oregon State, Colorado, USC, Colorado and Oregon all advancing. Oregon State was a surprise upset of Tennessee in the opening round, but they made us a believer and we also feel the Cowboys are a bit over-rated. Oregon State has won 4 straight against solid competition with wins over UCLA, Oregon, Colorado and Tennessee. The Beavers are 7-1 SU their last eight games. We have contrasting styles of play here as the Beavers (314th in pace) want to play slow while the Cowboys (33rd) want to play fast. Oklahoma State wasn’t as impressive in their opening round 69-60 win over Liberty and Cade Cunningham struggled shooting by going 3 of 14 from the field. Oklahoma State holds an advantage in defensive efficiency rating at 17th compared to Oregon State at 93rd but the Beavers have a slight advantage in offensive efficiency. It is going to be extremely hard for Oklahoma State to cover this number when they rank 325th in turnovers per game compared to Oregon State who ranks 54th. The Beavers are a perfect 4-0 ATS as an underdog on a neutral court while Oklahoma State is just 1-5 ATS their last six tourney games as a chalk. Grab the points in what should be a close game. |
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03-20-21 | Kings v. 76ers -6.5 | Top | 105-129 | Win | 100 | 14 h 41 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Philadelphia 76ers -6.5 over Sacramento Kings, 8 PM ET - We rarely pass up an opportunity to play on an elite NBA team off an embarrassing loss which is the case for the 76ers in this situation. Philly was just beaten by the Bucks at home and will be eager to atone here. The Sixers are 18-4 SU at home with the 4th best margin of victory of +7.2PPG. They hold the 3rd best defensive efficiency rating at home and the 12th best offensive efficiency. While the 76ers are in a great situation (at home, rested and off a home loss) the Kings are in a bad situation. Sacramento is off a HUGE upset win over the Celtics as a 7-point dog, playing the second night of a back-to-back, playing their 3rd in four nights and 5th game in eight days. The Kings have the 24th worst road differential in the NBA at minus -5.4PPG, rank 27th in road defensive efficiency and 16th in offensive efficiency. The Kings are 2-6 SU, 4-4 ATS when playing without rest with a negative differential of minus -8.2PPG. Philly 7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS at home when coming off a loss. Easy call for a BIG win by Philadelphia. |
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03-20-21 | Maryland v. Connecticut UNDER 130 | Top | 63-54 | Win | 100 | 24 h 27 m | Show |
#791/792 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 130 Points – Connecticut vs Maryland, Saturday at 7:10 PM ET - For those of you that followed us closely this year, you’ll know we’ve been on a numbers of UNDERS with this Maryland team and done very well with those. The Terps are a slow paced, defensive minded team and there is no questioning that. Head coach Mark Turgeon has stressed to this team they will win with defense and they have responded. They rank 27th nationally in defensive efficiency and they are 317th in tempo. They have held 13 of their last 17 opponents below 70 points. Offensively the Terps only average 53 field goal attempts per game which is 329th in the country. UConn’s strength is also their defense. They rank 25th nationally in defensive efficiency and 28th in eFG% allowed. They held 7 of their last 8 opponents to 68 points or less. UConn is also a very slow paced team ranking 301st. The Huskies defense the 3-point line very well which should negate the strength of Maryland’s offense which is shooting from deep. On the other side, UConn shoots very few 3’s and gets most of their points from inside the arc but that is Maryland’s defensive strength allowing just 46% shooting from 2-point range. This game should be a low possession, defensive battle. We look for this game to be played in the high 50’s / low 60’s which equals an UNDER. |
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03-19-21 | Pacers +4 v. Heat | Top | 137-110 | Win | 100 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Indiana Pacers +4 over Miami Heat, 8 PM ET - This line opened higher than it currently sits, then received a volume of money on the Heat and yet the line moved down. That’s a great first indicator the Pacers are the play here. Looking at each teams last ten games we find completely opposite results. Miami is 8-2 SU their last ten games while the Pacers are 2-8 SU. But on closer inspection we see the Heat have just two wins in that stretch over teams with winning records and one of them came against 21-20 Atlanta. Indiana has played a brutally tough schedule recently with games against the Nets, Nuggets twice, Suns, Lakers, 76ers, Knicks and Celtics. In comparison the Pacers were getting similar points at Denver, at the Lakers and at Philly. Despite a 12-8 SU home record the Heat have an average margin of victory of just 0.6PPG which is 16th worst in the NBA. Pacers have a negative road differential of -0.2PPG which is well within this point spread. Grab the points. |
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03-19-21 | Oral Roberts +16.5 v. Ohio State | Top | 75-72 | Win | 100 | 31 h 14 m | Show |
#739 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oral Roberts +16.5 over Ohio State, Friday at 3 PM ET - We love to look long and hard at big underdogs that can score points. That’s what we have here. ORU averages 82 PPG and ranks 13th nationally in scoring. They shoot it very well especially from deep where the average nearly 40% from beyond the arc (11th nationally). They can also steal some points on the FT line when they do get there as they hit nearly 83% from the stripe as a team (1st nationally). We think OSU will have a tough time pulling away in this game. The Buckeyes are coming off a rough and emotional Big Ten tourney run playing 4 games in 4 days and losing to Illinois in OT in the finals. Now they get an early game on Friday while Oral Roberts has had 10 days off to rest, practice, and get ready for their opener. The Golden Eagles have lost by more than this spread just once all season long and that was in the season opener @ Missouri way back in November. They were competitive in their games vs high D1 teams this year losing by 5 @ Oklahoma State, by 5 @ Wichita State, by 11 @ Arkansas, and by 14 @ Oklahoma, all NCAA tourney teams. If OSU has a weakness, it’s definitely their defense as they ranked dead last this year in the Big 10 in defensive efficiency (all games). They are also average at best at defending the arc so we don’t see them slowing down Oral Roberts in this game. The Buckeyes will put up points for sure, but the Eagles, even if they get down by more than the spread, will have the ability to score late if needed to get back in the game. The Buckeyes simply want to win and advance and get some rest for their starters if they are up double digits late in the game. Oral Roberts scores 70+ in this one and covers the big number. |
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03-19-21 | Oral Roberts v. Ohio State OVER 156 | Top | 75-72 | Loss | -111 | 31 h 57 m | Show |
#739/740 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 156 Points – Oral Roberts vs Ohio State, Friday at 3 PM ET - This one should definitely be a high scoring game. Oral Roberts ranks 13th nationally in scoring averaging 82 PPG on the season. They love to play fast ranking 47th nationally in tempo. The Golden Eagles are a great 3-point shooting team (11th nationally) hitting almost 40% and the are the best FT shooting team in the country at 83%. Ohio State ranks 4th nationally in offensive efficiency and will be by far the best offense ORU has seen this season. There are some very solid offensive teams in the Summit League, but none ranked inside the top 40 in the country. Even with that, the Eagles allowed 75 PPG in conference play. The 3 top offensive teams in the Summit are South Dakota State, South Dakota, and this ORU team. In their 4 games vs SDSU & South Dakota the totaled 189, 178, 175, and 170 points. ORU’s defense ranks 285th nationally in defensive efficiency and the Buckeyes have not seen a defense this leaky in a LONG time. For comparison’s sake, the worst defensive teams in the Big 10 this season were the Buckeyes (79th nationally), followed by Minnesota (51st), Iowa (50th), and Penn State (49th). OSU averaged 77 PPG in their games vs those 3 opponents and they are all FAR superior defensively to this Oral Roberts team. The Eagles played 5 games this season vs tournament teams (Missouri, Oklahoma St, Arkansas, Oklahoma, and Wichita St) and allowed an average of 85 PPG in those games and all 5 opponents were ranked outside the top 30 nationally in offensive efficiency (OSU is 4th as we mentioned above). The Buckeyes weakness is definitely their defense which was last in the conference this year in efficiency. They also are not great at defending the arc (191st nationally) which will be a problem here vs a great 3 point shooting team. OSU’s tempo numbers aren’t overly fast, however, they have no problem playing fast and did so when facing the up tempo teams in the Big 10. Versus the 4 Big 10 teams ranked inside the top 100 in tempo, OSU averaged 152 PPG in those contests and remember all of those teams have much better defenses than Oral Roberts. OSU get’s to at LEAST the mid 80’s here and we have no doubt Oral Roberts will top 70. Take the OVER. |
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03-18-21 | Hornets +8 v. Lakers | Top | 105-116 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Charlotte Hornets +8 over LA Lakers, 10:40 PM ET - Typically, a solid situation is betting against teams off games in the higher altitude of Denver if they are playing without rest such as the Hornets tonight. But we are going contrarian for a couple key reasons. First off, the Hornets were down big early and barely played the starters in the second half so fatigue won’t be an issue. Secondly, the line value is obvious as the Hornets were just plus +6.5-points at Denver who is rated higher than the Lakers, who are laying 8-points here. The Lakers are average or below in most offensive categories including efficiency which they rank 15th in. Los Angeles is 18th in scoring and 22nd in 3-point percentage shooting. L.A. has the 4th most wins in the NBA (easy first half schedule) but their average point differential is just +6PPG. Charlotte is above .500 this season and getting great play from their young talent including LaMelo Ball. The Hornets have won 4 of their last five games and 6 of their last nine. Charlotte is 8-11 SU on the road with an average point differential of minus -2.9PPG. The Hornets have been great off a loss recently with a 6-0 ATS run. Any time you play the Lakers it’s a big game so expect Charlotte to be dialed in tonight. Lakers 1-4 ATS their last five off a win of 10+ points. |
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03-18-21 | UCLA v. Michigan State UNDER 135 | Top | 86-80 | Loss | -109 | 15 h 5 m | Show |
#717/718 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 135 Points – UCLA vs Michigan State, Thursday at 10 PM ET - The Bruins step into this game as one of the slowest teams in the country ranking 332nd in tempo. MSU was one of the slower paced teams in the Big 10 (9th) and they sit in the middle of the pack nationally. However, they have no problem playing a slow down game and that’s what we expect tonight as UCLA gets the tempo they prefer. Neither team takes or makes many 3-pointers with both ranking outside the top 250 in percentage of points from beyond the arc. That’s always something we look at when taking an UNDER. Limit points from beyond the arc = lower scoring game. MSU is not a good shooting team period. They ranked 13th in the Big 10 in offensive efficiency, 3-point percentage, and eFG percentage. Down the stretch Sparty was held under 60 points in 3 of their final 5 games and only reached 1.00 points per possession once in their final 5. They averaged just 64 PPG in Big 10 play and only topped 70 points 6 times in 21 conference games including the tournament. The Bruins had better offensive numbers averaging 71 PPG in Pac 12 play but keep in mind that conference has nowhere near the defensive prowess the Big 10 has. In fact, MSU ranked 8th overall in Big 10 defensive efficiency (all games) but 32nd nationally. The Spartans defensive numbers were good enough to rank 3rd in the Pac 12 right on par with Colorado (29th nationally) and USC (19th nationally), the top 2 defensive teams in that league. In UCLA’s 4 games vs those 2 opponents, the combined scores were 114, 127, 127, and 131 points. This one will be played in the 60’s and we like the UNDER. |
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03-18-21 | Norfolk State +3 v. Appalachian State | Top | 54-53 | Win | 100 | 39 h 47 m | Show |
#711 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Norfolk State +3 over Appalachian State, Thursday at 8:40 PM ET - App State made a great run through their conference tourney catching lightning in a bottle as some teams do this time of year. They played 4 games in 4 days in the Sun Belt tourney to win the title but let’s not forget this team was ranked as the 5th best team in the Sun Belt entering that tournament and actually had a losing record during the regular season. They also lost 3 times this season to Troy who is ranked 305th nationally and is the worst team in the Sun Belt so App State has been far from reliable. They’ve had some rest now but this is a very thin team which can cause problems in a tournament setting. Their starters played 733 out of the 850 possible minutes in those 4 tourney games that were all very tight. Norfolk steps in from the MEAC, which isn’t a strong league, but they were the best team in their conference all season. The Spartans have had off since Saturday so they’ll be rested as well. They are also deep (15th nationally in bench minutes) and experienced with 4 seniors and 1 junior in the starting line up and multiple upperclassmen coming off the bench. Their head coach Jones has been at Norfolk for 8 years and had only one losing season (solid program). No post-season last year for anyone but in 2019 the Spartans made the NIT and beat Alabama before losing to Colorado. They are a good sized team, solid rebounding, one of the better 3-point shooting teams in the nation (39th) and they don’t turn the ball over very much. This one has upset written all over, although we wouldn’t call it that as we have this game rated as dead-even. We’ll take the points with Norfolk State. |
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03-17-21 | Western Kentucky v. St. Mary's UNDER 125 | Top | 69-67 | Loss | -105 | 39 h 37 m | Show |
#707/708 ASA CBB TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 125 Points – St Marys vs Western Kentucky, Wednesday at 9:00 PM ET - NOTE – All NIT games are being played in Frisco, TX so no home court advantage. The strength of both of these teams are their defenses. St Marys ranks 9th nationally in defensive efficiency and WKU ranks 81st. Both offenses rank outside the top 100 in offensive efficiency with Ste Marys sitting down near 200th in that category. Neither team likes to play at a fast pace, especially the Gaels who rank 347th in tempo. If you take out their 3 games vs Gonzaga (#1 in the country in offensive efficiency) the St Marys defense allowed just 59 PPG in conference play. Offensively they only averaged 59 PPG in WCC play shooting just 39% from the field and 25% from beyond the arc. They rank 328th nationally in 3-point shooting at under 30% for the season. Needless to say this offense isn’t any where close to the sharp shooting teams St Marys has had in the past. The only 2 defenses in the WCC that rank in the top 100 are BYU & Gonzaga. In those games St Marys averaged just 56 PPG in their 5 meetings with those 2 teams. The Hilltopper defense also ranks in the top 100 and was outstanding all year allowing 70 points or more just 4 times in 17 Conference USA games. St Marys offense efficiency (198th) would rank 10th in CUSA this season so we don’t look for much from them on offense. CUSA doesn’t have a single defense ranked in the top 30 in efficiency so this will be a better defense by a wide margin than anyone WKY has faced in conference play (St Marys is 9th nationally as mentioned above). Neither team relies heavily on shooting 3’s (both accumulate less than 29% of their points from beyond the arc) and neither team fouls very often. So it looks like the majority of points will be scored from inside the arc which favors the Under. This sets up to be a low possession game with defenses running the show. We think there is a very solid chance that neither team reaches 60 points here so while it’s set very low at 125, there is a reason for that and we like the UNDER. |
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03-17-21 | Spurs v. Bulls OVER 222.5 | Top | 106-99 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 34 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 222.5 San Antonio Spurs @ Chicago Bulls, 8PM ET - We are betting value here and will side with Vegas on this Over. This line opened 227.5 which is a ton of value compared to the current number. We are betting the oddsmakers had the correct number to begin with. The correction in the number is based on the Spurs current stretch of games that has resulted in 4 of five Unders but let’s consider who they’ve played in that stretch. The Spurs recently played Detroit, Orlando and OKC who are bottom seven of the NBA in scoring and offensive efficiency. They had a game against Dallas who is middle of the pack in scoring and Philadelphia who is 7th in points allowed per game defensively. Now the Spurs face a Bulls team that is the 6th fastest paced team in the NBA and 11th in scoring at 114.4PPG. Chicago is coming off a game last night and they have averaged 225.5PPG this year when playing without rest. The Bulls just scored 118 and 123 in their last two games after a pair of lower scoring games so the offense is back on track. San Antonio is average or slightly below in most offensive categories, but the Bulls defense isn’t great, allowing 114.3PPG (24th) and 47.4% shooting (23rd). Let’s not forget, an average NBA game this season finishes with 224-points and this number is below that. Bet OVER |
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03-16-21 | Pelicans v. Blazers -121 | Top | 124-125 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Portland Trailblazers -120 over New Orleans Pelicans, 10 PM ET - The Blazers get some much-needed help back in their lineup with the return of CJ McCollum. McCollum was having a career year before his injury averaging 26.7PPG on 44.1% shooting from beyond the arc and over 47% from the field. He provides an additional scoring option the Blazers so desperately need to go along with Damian Lillard who scored 43 against the Pelicans the last time these teams met. Both teams have been bad defensively ranking 28th and 29th in defensive efficiency but both rank in the top 6 when it comes to offensive efficiency. The scheduling dynamics favor the Blazers who are off a disappointing loss at Minnesota while the Pelicans are off a 135-scoring output and win against the Clippers. Portland is a solid 10-6 off a loss this year, 6-2 at home in that situation. New Orleans is just 5-12 SU on the road this year with the 22nd worst road differential in the league at minus -3.3PPG. The NBA is driven by 3-point shooting and this is where the Blazers have a key advantage as they shoot 38% from beyond the arc which is 8th best in the NBA and the Pelicans allow 39% 3-point shooting which is 28th worse in the league. Pelicans just 1-6 ATS when coming off a game in which they score 125 or more points, while Portland is 8-3 ATS their last eleven at home against a sub .400 road team. |
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03-15-21 | Kings v. Hornets -3 | Top | 116-122 | Win | 100 | 7 h 59 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Charlotte Hornets -3 over Sacramento Kings, 7 PM ET - The Hornets are quietly playing well right now with three straight wins to climb over the .500 record for the season. Charlotte recently beat Minnesota, Detroit and Toronto who are all very comparable to this Kings team. The Hornets have been very solid at home with a 6-1 SU record their last seven home games AND they won those games by an average of 11PPG. Sacramento has not been a good road team this year with a 6-11 SU record and one of the worst road differentials in the NBA at minus -5.7PPG. The Kings are 1-6 SU their last seven road games, and that one win came against the Pistons who are one of the worst teams in the NBA. Not only that, those six losses all came by more than the tonight’s spread. Sacramento is 1-7 ATS their last eight as a dog. Charlotte takes care of business when it comes to weaker teams with a 6-1 ATS run versus teams with a losing record. Easy call here with Charlotte by double-digits. |
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03-14-21 | Clippers v. Pelicans +6 | Top | 115-135 | Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans +6 over LA Clippers, 8 PM ET - Obviously, the Clippers are one of the better road teams in the NBA at 12-8 SU with a point differential of +5.6PPG, but they’ve struggled of late with a 1-4 SU record their last five away from home. New Orleans is 2-3 SU their last five home games and one of those wins came against the Utah Jazz as a +7-point underdog. The Pelicans are 11-10 SU on their home floor this season and also have a positive plus/minus of +2.2PPG (12th best in the NBA). The Pelicans have cashed 7 of the last ten meetings in this series overall and 20 of the last twenty-seven in New Orleans. Based on our line analysis and the money moves on this game we are siding with the home team here plus the points. |
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03-14-21 | Ohio State v. Illinois UNDER 150.5 | Top | 88-91 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 30 m | Show |
#657/658 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 151.5 Points – Ohio State vs Illinois, Sunday at 2:30 PM ET - This total is set too high for a Big Ten Championship game. We expect both defenses to be on top of their game with a title on the line. Illinois ranks 2nd in the conference in defensive efficiency and eFG% allowed. In Big 10 play they allowed just 68 PPG on 41% shooting. OSU’s overall defensive numbers on the season are not as strong, however after losing 4 in a row to end the regular season, head coach Holtmann went back to the basics and focused on defense. It worked as they have been lights out on that end of the court in the Big 10 tourney allowing their 3 opponents to shoot just 38% combined. On Saturday they held a very potent Michigan offense (5th nationally in offensive efficiency) to just 67 points. The Wolverines held OSU to just 68 points and the Illini defense is definitely on par with Michigan’s (1st and 2nd in the Big 10 in defensive efficiency). On offense, Illinois takes fewer 3 pointers than any team in the league (25% of their points from deep) and OSU is in the middle of the pack (33% of points from 3). So we don’t expect a barrage of threes going up in this game an when they do, remember this is OSU’s 4th game in 4 days and Illinois 3rd game in 3 days so legs will be a factor when launching from deep. This is the Buckeyes THIRD highest total of the entire season and the other 2 were vs Iowa who is fast paced, the #1 offensive efficiency team in the Big 10 and not great defensively. The Illini had 6 totals this season set at 150 or higher and 5 of those games went UNDER the total. We expect the Big 10 Championship game to be a lower scoring game as it always has been. Teams know each other very well and are closing out a long, physically and emotionally draining weekend. Since the Big 10 tourney began in 1998 the average total combined points per game has been just 126.5. NOT ONE of those 22 games has topped 151 points and today’s total is 151.5. UNDER for us on this one. |
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03-13-21 | North Texas v. Western Kentucky +1.5 | Top | 61-57 | Loss | -107 | 21 h 39 m | Show |
#628 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Western Kentucky +1.5 over North Texas, Saturday at 9 PM ET - These 2 were supposed to face off twice this year but both games were canceled. Their most recent meeting was last March and while that was a year ago, the result should bring some extra motivation to a very talented WKY team. It was a game at North Texas as the 2 were battling for the CUSA title. Western KY led by 6 late and UNT rallied to send the game to OT where they won and clinched the conference regular season title. Now the Hilltoppers have a chance to exact revenge and win the CUSA tourney title on Saturday night. WKY is playing their best basketball of the season right now. They’ve won 11 of their last 13 games with their only losses coming @ Houston (6th ranked in the nation on KenPom) and a 2-point loss vs Old Dominion, a game WKY led by 13 in the 2nd half. They are 5-4 this season vs Q1 & Q2 teams, the top competition they’ve faced this year. That includes a win @ Alabama and a near upset of West Virginia. This team is ultra talented led by future NBA big man Charles Bassey (21 PPG & 8 RPG). UNT is at a bit of a disadvantage here. They will be playing their 4th game in 4 days. WKY is playing their 3rd game. The Mean Green were not playing their best basketball heading into this tournament losing their final 3 regular season games. While the Hilltoppers had a winning record vs the best teams they played (Q1 & Q2) North Texas was 3-6 vs those opponents. Many of their offensive and defensive numbers are very similar in conference play but WKY should have a solid advantage in 2 areas. They are the better rebounding team (and fresher having played one less game) and they should get to the line more often here as they are #1 in CUSA in that category and UNT fouls a lot. If the Hilltoppers do get to the line a lot as we suspect, they should salt this one away as they rank 12th nationally making nearly 80% of their FT’s. Prior to their OT loss last March vs North Texas, the Hilltoppers controlled this series winning 11 straight. Western gets the win and cover and moves on to the Big Dance. |
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03-13-21 | Kings v. Hawks OVER 240 | Top | 106-121 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 46 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 240 Sacramento Kings @ Atlanta Hawks, 7:30PM ET - The Kings are average in road offensive efficiency, ranking 15th BUT they are HORRIBLE defensively on the road, ranking 27th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.171PPP. The Hawks at home have the 12th best offensive efficiency numbers in the league but are 22nd in defensive efficiency. In other words, both are solid offensively and bad defensively. The Kings are 9th in pace while the Hawks are 22nd. Both teams are top 10 in offensive efficiency and both average over 112PPG. Defense is another matter as they both rank in the bottom 8 teams in the NBA in defensive efficiency, the Kings are last. The Kings have gone Over in 48 of their last 71 games overall, 38-18 Over their last 56 when a dog. The Hawks are on a 12-3 Over streak and have played Over in 35 of their last 50 at home against a team with a losing record. Vegas has set this number this high to scare you off. Don’t let it…BET OVER! |
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03-12-21 | Connecticut +1 v. Creighton | Top | 56-59 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
#849 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Connecticut +1 over Creighton, Friday at 9 PM ET - We’ve said this before leading up to the conference tournaments, we have UConn ranked as the top team in the Big East. They should be favored in this game according to our power ratings. Their top player, and best player in the Big East, James Bouknight missed 8 games in the middle of the season and the Huskies were 4-4 during his absence. With him in the line up they are 11-2 with their only losses coming by 8 @ Villanova and by 2 points in OT vs this Creighton team. They shot just 36% and made only 26% of their 3’s and still took the Blue Jays to OT. We like them to get their revenge today. The Huskies are playing lights out right now winning 6 of 7 since Bouknight rejoined the lineup. All 6 of those wins were by double digits including a 34 point win yesterday vs DePaul. Creighton is also coming off a big win over Butler yesterday and also beat the Bulldogs to close out the regular season. Prior to that game they had lost back to back games vs Villanova & Xavier. The Jays are a very good shooting team but UConn is the #1 defense in the Big East (efficiency & eFG%) and held Creighton to 42% shooting in their 2 games this season. While Creighton won both, one was without Bouknight, and they way UConn’s offense is playing right now is far better than they were playing at the time these teams met. The Huskies covered both of those games and they are a remarkable 16-4-1 ATS on the season. Definitely an undervalued commodity and we like Connecticut to win this game outright. |
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03-12-21 | Nuggets v. Grizzlies +3.5 | Top | 103-102 | Win | 100 | 20 h 16 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Memphis Grizzlies +3.5 over Denver Nuggets, 8 PM ET - Both teams are trending up right now as the Nuggets have won four straight, while the Grizzlies have won 3 of their last four. We like the fact the Grizz have played a game after the All-Star break (beat Washington) while Denver has yet to play. Memphis has a pair of great games against two of the best teams in the NBA at home recently as they beat the Clippers bad (122-94) and lost by 1-point to Milwaukee. The Grizzlies have covered four in a row overall and have cashed 5 of the last six against the Nuggets in Memphis. The break couldn’t have come at a worse time for Denver who had won four in a row. The line on this game is the “tell” though as the Nuggets were just a -3.5-point favorites at Indiana who we rate higher than Memphis. Why the low number? In contrarian fashion we will be the opposite of the way Vegas wants you to bet. Back the home dog here. |
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03-12-21 | Ohio State v. Purdue UNDER 143 | Top | 87-78 | Loss | -121 | 14 h 6 m | Show |
#813/814 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 143 Points – Ohio State vs Purdue, Friday at 2 PM ET - OSU played Minnesota yesterday in what appeared to be a high scoring game with the Buckeyes winning 79-75. It went over the total of 145. However, a closer look reveals that if not for a flurry of points late, this would have been a lower scoring affair. With just over 1:00 minute remaining in the game, the 2 teams had 135 total points which means they scored 19 points in the final minute. The 2 teams had just 66 points at half. The Buckeyes, minus the last few minutes of the game, played outstanding defense. That had been their Achilles heal during their 4 game losing streak to end the season but remember 3 of those 4 teams they faced (Michigan, Illinois, & Iowa) all rank in the top 8 nationally in offensive efficiency. Head coach Chris Holtmann really stressed defensive intensity to his team entering the Big 10 tourney and they responded. The Gophs shot just 36% and had only 58 points with under 2:00 minutes remaining. The Buckeyes offense played very well but they were facing a Minnesota defense that ranks dead last in the Big 10 in defensive efficiency. It should be much different on Friday with the Buckeyes facing a Purdue defense that ranks 3rd in the Big 10 in defensive efficiency and eFG% allowed. The Boilers also prefer a much slower pace (273rd nationally) compared to Minnesota so there will be fewer possessions in this game. The 2 met twice this season with Purdue winning both 67-60 and 67-65. Defense ruled the day in those 2 meetings with the teams combining to shoot 43% in each game. These 2 rivals know each other very well and when they get together it’s usually a low scoring, grinder type game. In fact, over the last 12 meetings, these 2 have topped 140 total points only twice. This one goes UNDER the total. |
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03-11-21 | Texas Tech v. Texas OVER 134.5 | Top | 66-67 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 34 m | Show |
#715/716 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 134.5 Points – Texas vs Texas Tech, Thursday at 9:30 PM ET - These 2 played less than 2 weeks ago and the total for that game was set at 134.5. The final score was Tech 68 / Texas 59 for a total of 127 points. Despite that game going under, this total is set higher than the first meeting and we agree. If you take a close look at that game, the teams combined to shoot only 39% from the field and made only 11 of their 37 three point attempts for just 29%. Even with those poor shooting numbers, these teams nearly got to 130 which is only a few possessions short of tonight’s total. Both of these offenses are solid ranking 3rd and 4th in Big 12 offensive efficiency and for the season Texas averages 75 PPG & Tech puts up 73 PPG. They are also both very good three point shooting teams ranking 3rd and 4th in the league in that area as well. As you can see these offenses are much better than their showing a few weeks ago and we expect the numbers to be much better in this game. The one thing they did do in that game which helps a potential OVER is they got to the FT line with 38 made freebies in 53 attempts. Both teams foul often and their opponents put up over 21% of their points from the FT line which ranks each in the top 50 in highest percentage of points allowed from the stripe. So we look for a bunch of FT attempts again on Thursday evening and it they can improve their field goal shooting, which we expect they will, this one should get into the 140’s. Take the OVER here. |
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03-11-21 | Celtics v. Nets -2.5 | Top | 109-121 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets -2.5 over Boston Celtics, 7:35 PM ET - Brooklyn is the team to beat in the East and Boston has certainly slipped in our power rankings since the start of the season. The Celtics went into the All-Star break on a 4-game winning streak but prior to that had been just average. In comparison the Nets have played extremely well in their last ten games going 9-1 SU with an average differential of +10PPG. Brooklyn has shot 51% over that ten-game span and face a Celtics defense that 17th in defensive field goal percentage at 46.7%. The Nets are the 2nd best 3-point percentage shooting team in the league too at 40.7% which has helped them average 121PPG. The line on this game is clearly off as the Celtics were recently a +4.5-points underdog at home to the Clippers and the Nets rate near even to the LA in our metrics, meaning the Nets should be at least -4.5 here. When laying -4.5-points or less this season the Nets are 100% or 6-0 ATS. Bet the Nets at home in this one. |
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03-10-21 | Spurs +4.5 v. Mavs | Top | 104-115 | Loss | -107 | 21 h 4 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* San Antonio Spurs +4.5 over Dallas Mavericks, 8:30PM ET - We like the Spurs here and the points in this Texas showdown. When you think of the Mavs you think of offense and points, but the reality is, they rank just 4-spots higher in total offense than the Spurs do and both are in the bottom half of the NBA in scoring. The big advantage the Spurs have here is defense. San Antonio ranks 10th in points allowed per game compared to the Mavericks ranking 18th. The Spurs can also exploit the Mavericks on the glass with the 10th best offensive rebounding margin in the NBA, going up against the Mavs 22nd ranked defensive unit. The Spurs limped into the All-Star break but were hampered by injuries. Dallas won 8 of their last twelve games which is why this line is what it is and offering value. San Antonio has been incredible on the road this season with a 9-4 SU record and a +3.9PPG average margin of victory which is 9th best in the NBA. Dallas on the other hand has a negative differential at home of minus -2.2PPG which ranks 20th. Easy call with the Spurs here and the points. |
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03-09-21 | Southern Miss v. Rice -4.5 | Top | 52-61 | Win | 100 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
#826 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Rice -4.5 over Southern Miss, Tuesday at 8 PM ET - Rice had the #1 strength of schedule rating in Conference USA play, played one less game, and still finished with 2 more wins than Southern Miss. The Owls were 6-10 overall in league play (13-12 overall on the season) and in their final 10 conference games, they played 8 of those games vs CUSA’s top tier teams (Western KY, UAB, Louisiana Tech, and North Texas). So they had a very difficult schedule from mid January on to get them ready for this tourney. The 2 games during that stretch that were not vs the top teams in the league were vs this Southern Miss team. Rice beat USM in both games by 26 & 8 points and the Owls dominated trailing for a grand total of 50 seconds in the 2 games combined! Rice controlled the boards with a +19 rebounding edge in the 2 games combined and they made 14 more 3-pointers. We don’t see that changing this time around as the Owls are 2nd best 3-point shooting team in CUSA and USM scores fewer points from beyond the arc than any team in the league. On top of all that, Rice played that series without one of their top players, Chris Mullins, who averages 11 PPG, 4 RPG, and 3 APG. He’s since come back and is at full strength. Southern Miss has only 8 wins on the season and they are just 4-13 in CUSA play. Seven of their eight wins have come vs teams ranked 295th or lower. The Golden Eagles struggle to score as they have reached 70 points just twice in their last 12 games while ranking 303rd nationally in offensive efficiency. Since Southern Miss head coach Ladner took over at the beginning of last season, they have a 9-26 record in CUSA play. Rice gets the win & cover on Tuesday night. |
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03-08-21 | North Dakota State -3 v. South Dakota | Top | 79-75 | Win | 100 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
#789 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* North Dakota State -3 over South Dakota, Monday at 9:45 PM ET - This line opened at NDSU -1.5 and was way off according to our power ratings. Not surprisingly, minutes after it opened it moved up to -3 and we still like the value on the Bison. We have this set at -5 in favor of North Dakota State. These 2 must met to close out the regular season and split their games, both @ South Dakota. We were on South Dakota in the first game it what we thought was a great spot to grab them at home. They rewarded us with an 80-71 win, however they lost their 1st team All Conference performer, AJ Plitzuweit, toward the end of that game to a season ending knee injury. Plitzuweit averaged 19 PPG, 5 RPG, and shot 43% from beyond the arc. Huge loss to say the least. The following day South Dakota again played host to NDSU and lost by 12. The Bison were favored by 2.5 in that game on the road and now only 3 on a neutral. You can see why we like the value here. North Dakota State played what looked like a close game yesterday beating UMKC by 4. However, they led by 16 at half and by 22 in the 2nd half so the game was never really in doubt. South Dakota beat a bad Western Illinois team in their Summit League tourney opener but an already thin team before losing Plitzuweit, their starters all logged 30+ minutes and not one reserve played more than 9 minutes. One thing we took away from the 2 games these 2 played at the end of the season was the Jackrabbits can’t hang on the boards. The Bison were +21 rebounds in their 2 meetings combined which isn’t surprising as they are the #1 offensive & defensive rebounding team in the Summit. They are also the best defensive team ranking #1 in eFG% allowed and 3-point percentage allowed. That will be a problem for South Dakota who relies heavily on the 3 and just lost their best shooter. The way the first game played out, the Bison were down late and committed a bunch of fouls to send SD to the line in an attempt to come back. South Dakota, a very good FT shooting team, was +18 made FT’s in that game. In the rematch when the points from the stripe evened out, NDSU won by double digits. The Bison foul fewer than any team in the league so that is not what normally happens in their games. We expect the Bison to be ahead for most of this game an if they need to salt this game away with FT’s late, they make 76% from the line. We’ll lay the small number here and take North Dakota State. |
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03-07-21 | Appalachian State v. Coastal Carolina -4 | Top | 64-61 | Loss | -112 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Coastal Carolina -4 over Appalachian State, 9PM ET - App State will have to deal with fatigue here as they are playing their 3rd game in three days AND are coming off an OT game yesterday. In yesterday’s win over Texas State, App State had four starters log over 38-minutes and have five players that saw 32 or more minutes of action. Coastal on the other hand is off a blowout win over Troy yesterday and were able to spread the minutes out through eleven players. Coastal Carolina has the best player on the floor in this game with DeVante Jones who is averaging 20.2PPG, 7.2 RPG and 3.2APG. These two teams are near even in offensive efficiency ratings with Coastal averaging 1.024-points per possession, while Appalachian State averages 1.037PPP. The big separator here is defense. Coastal is the 2nd best defense in the Sun Belt allowing just .946PPP compared to App State who ranks 10th allowing 1.026PPP. The Chanticleers have the 29th best EFG% defense in the nation, limiting opponents to just 46.2%. They also rank top 55 overall in both 2pt percentage and 3pt percentage defense. The Mountaineers on the other hand are 217th in EFG% defense and rank 179th or worse in both 2pt and 3pt percentage defense. Off their big upset win yesterday we expect App State to regress here and predict a double-digit win by Coastal Carolina |
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03-07-21 | Memphis v. Houston -9.5 | Top | 64-67 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 46 m | Show |
#732 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Houston -9.5 over Memphis, Sunday at 12:00 PM ET - This is a battle for 2nd place in the AAC as Wichita State already clinched the regular season title with a win over South Florida on Saturday. Houston has the most wins in the league at 13 but Wichita only played 13 games and went 11-2 so they are locked into the top seed. This is a battle for 2nd place. Despite battling for 2nd place, Houston is by far the best team in this conference. Most metrics have them ranked in the top 10 in the nation while Wichita is a bubble team at best. Memphis isn’t even really a serious bubble team right now. Most have them sitting as 10-15 spots outside the final bid. The Tigers have played just 3 games since an 18 day Covid break which started early in February. While they are 3-0 in those games, 2 of the wins came vs South Florida & Tulane, two of the three lowest rated teams in the AAC. Their lone decent win since they came back was a 6-point win over Cincinnati but the Bearcats played that game without one of the top players (DeJulius) and one of the top reserves (Harvey). The Tigers are great defensively. The problem here is, Houston is every bit as good defensively and MUCH better on offense. The Cougars are 1 of only 4 teams in the nation that rank in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency per Ken Pom. The others are Gonzaga, Michigan, and Illinois. Houston is absolutely dominant at home. This will be their 4th straight home game and their home finale and they’ve won their previous 3 by a combined 108 points! That includes a 38 point win over Cincinnati (and the Bearcats were healthy) and a 24 point win over Western Kentucky who is one of the top teams on Conference USA. The Cougs are 14-0 at home (6-1 ATS in AAC play at home) with an average final score of 82-54. They’ve only had one win all season long by less than 10 points and that was a 7-point win over Wichita in a game Houston led by 14 with 5 minutes remaining. The Cougars will be very motivated in their final home game and out to prove they are the best team in the league and deserved the #1 seed. Houston wins and covers again at home. |
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03-06-21 | Xavier v. Marquette -1.5 | Top | 59-66 | Win | 100 | 15 h 42 m | Show |
#670 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Marquette -1.5 over Xavier, Saturday at 9 PM ET - Marquette had a poor stretch from late January into February but they pulled out of their funk and their playing perhaps their best basketball of the season to close it out. The Golden Eagles were dealt an extremely tough scheduling situation to close out the year as they are coming off SIX straight road games. This is their home finale and their first game at home in a full month. They went 3-3 over that 6 game road stretch including wins over North Carolina (by double digits) and over Butler who has been playing great at home including wins over Villanova & Creighton, the 2 top teams in the league. They’ve now won 3 of their last 4 (all on the road as we mentioned) and now have big time momentum coming home. Xavier is heading in the opposite direction losing 4 of their 6 games since coming back from a 2 week Covid break which started in early February. They are just 1-4 SU this season on the road in conference play. XU has shot just 42% since their return from their hiatus and they’ve failed to top 68 points in 3 of their last 4 games. They are the worst 3-point shooting team in the Big East hitting only 29% on the season which makes it tough to win on the road. The Musketeers beat Marquette at home by 3 on a 3-pointer at the buzzer earlier this season. Just a little more fuel for the Golden Eagles. The favorite has covered 6 of the last 7 in this series and we love the momentum Marquette brings into this one as they finally get to play a home game. |
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03-05-21 | Valparaiso +7.5 v. Missouri State | Top | 55-66 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 5 m | Show |
#873 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Valparaiso +7.5 over Missouri State, Friday at 9 PM ET - Valpo is playing their best basketball over the last month or so. They are 7-11 on the season in MVC play but 7-8 SU their last 15. Four of those eight wins have been tight games with Valpo losing by 7 or less. We’re getting some value her because the Crusaders lost both games vs Mizzou State by 13 & 10 points way back in early January with Valparaiso wasn’t playing well. They were 3.5 point underdogs in those game and now getting 8 = value in our opinion. Down the stretch this team beat Drake (2nd rated team in the MVC), lost by 2 vs Loyola Chicago (top game in the conference) and beat Indiana State (4th ranked team in the league). The Crusaders are now 5-1 ATS their last 6 games vs teams with above .500 SU records. Missouri State has won 7 of their last 8 games but they played the worst teams in the Missouri Valley down the stretch. Valpo has had a number if players in the rotation miss games this season but they are at full strength now and they are better than their 7-11 conference record. Defensively they’ve been solid over the last month allowing only 2 of their last 9 opponents to get to 70 points. The Crusaders were 4-1 ATS this year as dogs of 7 or more in conference play and we like this one to go to the wire. Take Valparaiso and the points. |
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03-05-21 | Evansville v. Indiana State UNDER 135 | Top | 43-53 | Win | 100 | 19 h 54 m | Show |
#869/870 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 135 Points – Evansville vs Indiana State, Friday at 3 PM ET - We love the value here on the UNDER. These 2 met twice in mid February and the totals set on those 2 games was 123.5 and 127. Both went OVER the total so now we are getting Friday’s opener at 135 which is a full 11.5 points higher than their first meeting. Were the oddsmakers that far off with their initial totals for those meetings? No. The teams went crazy offensively in those games which pushed both over the total. The first meeting ended with ISU winning 76-70. The 2 teams combined to take only 93 shots in that game but made 53 of those shots which was 57%. They also combined to make 41% of their 3-pointers. In the rematch the 2 teams attempted 104 total shots and made 60 of those for 58%. The also made 44% of their 3-pointers in that game. For comparison’s sake, for the season these teams make 43.7% and 44.3% of their shots (38% and 33% from beyond the arc) so both hit WAY above their averages in those 2 games. They were both very slow paced games as we can see by the total shots and that’s not surprising as Evansville ranks 355th (out of 357 teams) in tempo while Indiana State ranks 219th. The Sycamores are very solid defensively ranking in the top 100 in defensive efficiency (4th in the MVC) and while Evansville is not a great defensive team, ISU still performed well above their offensive expectations (based on facing Evansville’s defense) in the first meetings. 135 may not seem like a high total, but keep in mind ISU has had 9 of their last 10 totals set at 137.5 or less and Evansville has had only one total ALL SEASON set higher than 135. Now we are at a neutral site in St Louis and it’s tourney time. One and done. We expect both defenses to perform much better this time around and another very slow paced game with limited shot attempts is on tap. Unless they both go off the charts again offensively, this one should stay UNDER the total. |
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03-04-21 | Warriors v. Suns -6.5 | Top | 98-120 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Sun -6.5 over Golden State Warriors, 10PM ET - The Warriors could feel the effects of a close game last night in Portland where the key starters saw 30+ minutes of action, while the Suns were at home resting. Phoenix is coming off an impressive win over the Lakers in which Devin Booker was ejected in the 3rd quarter and the second unit played the majority of the 4th quarter in a convincing road win. Golden State relies heavily on Steph Curry to carry the offensive load while Draymond Green does all the dirty work on the defensive end of the court. The Warriors are 3-6 SU their last nine road games and have a loss here earlier this season by 21-points. The Warriors rank 23rd in the NBA with a negative road point differential of minus -4.3PPG. Phoenix is 11-6 SU at home and have the 3rd best average margin of victory at home of +7.2PPG. Both teams are near even when it comes to offensive statistics, but the Suns hold a decisive advantage defensively allowing 5 less points per game than Golden State and rank 2nd in the NBA in 3-point percentage defense. Golden State is 6-17-1 ATS their last 24 games playing without rest and that trend continues here. |
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03-04-21 | Oklahoma State +11.5 v. Baylor | Top | 70-81 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
#727 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oklahoma State +11.5 over Baylor, Thursday at 7 PM ET - This is a really tough spot for a Baylor team that frankly isn’t playing to the dominant level they were earlier in the season. The Bears just beat West Virginia in OT on Tuesday night to clinch their first regular season Big 12 Title in 71 years! Now with their Big 12 tournament seeding set at #1, they have to play 48 hours later vs an Oklahoma State team that is playing their best basketball of the season. Baylor has played 3 games since returning from a 21 day covid break and as we mentioned, they haven’t been all that great. They rallied from 17 down to beat a bad Iowa State team (0-16 in the conference) by 5, lost by 13 @ Kansas, and then beat WVU in OT on Tuesday. They’ve hit only 43% of their shots over that 3 game stretch and they’ve been out rebounded in 2 of those games. Far from dominating. Okie State has won 8 of their last 10 including a sweep of a very good Oklahoma team their last 2 games. They’ve been impressive on the road with a 7-3 record including wins @ Oklahoma, @ Texas Tech, and @ Marquette. The Cowboys 3 road losses in Big 12 play have come by an average of 6 PPG. These two met in January when Baylor was destroying pretty much everyone and the Bears topped OSU by 15. The Cowboys played that game without their star freshman Cade Cunningham (20 PPG & 6 RPG) who might just be the #1 pick in this year’s NBA Draft. They were also without starter Rondel Walker who averages 9 PPG & 3 RPG. Prior to OSU losing earlier this year and obviously not at 100%, this was a tight series with the 4 match ups the last 2 seasons decided by 3, 4, 7, and 8 points. If this was Baylor’s final home game and Senior night, we might be reluctant to fade them even though this is a bad scheduling situation. However, they host Texas Tech this weekend for their home finale. We think OSU can give Baylor a big time scare here and taking the generous points is the play. |
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03-03-21 | Creighton v. Villanova -4 | Top | 60-72 | Win | 100 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
#686 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Villanova -4 over Creighton, Wednesday at 8 PM ET - This is a huge home game for Nova as a win pretty much clinches the Big East regular season title. It’s also their final home game so they are set to send off 2 of the better players in program history with a win. Starting PG Gillespie (1200 career points) and starting F Samuels are both seniors potentially playing their final game at home. Speaking of home, the Cats have been great in their own arena this year with a perfect 8-0 record and an average margin of victory of +16. Going back even further, Nova has won 63 of their last 70 home games and they have won 6 of their last 7 @ home vs the Jays. However, they did lose last year at home vs Creighton so they should have a little extra for this one. On top of that, the Wildcats traveled to Creighton on Feb 13th as a 2-point favorite and lost 86-70. The Blue Jays shot nearly 60% in that game and averaged a ridiculous 1.34 PPP. It was a terrible defensive performance and the Cats bounced back a few days later to beat a very good UConn team here at home. Speaking of bouncing back, Villanova had 3 losses on the season entering last weekend and they rebounded to win their following game after each of those. They laid an egg on Sunday @ Butler losing by 12 for their 4th loss of the season and we expect a huge effort in this one. They shot just 2 of 27 from three point range in that loss (7%) one of their worst performances in the Jay Wright era. Now they are back at home where they make 40% of their 3’s and average 81 PPG. Villanova was favored by 2 @ Creighton and now they are laying just 4 at home, off a loss, on Senior night. Like this spot for the Wildcats. |
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03-03-21 | Nets -8 v. Rockets | Top | 132-114 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets -8 over Houston Rockets, 7:30 PM ET - This game sets up very similar to when we bet on the Nets over the Warriors in KD’s first game back in the Bay when Brooklyn handled Golden State. James Harden will play with a chip on his shoulder tonight back in Houston for the first time since being traded to the Nets. The NBA is driven by 3-point shooting and the Nets are the 2nd best shooting team from beyond the arc this season at 40.5%. Houston is LAST in the league in 3-point shooting at 33%. Brooklyn will have their way offensively here with the highest scoring offense in the NBA at 120.8PPG going up against a Rockets defense that gives up 112.2PPG (18th). The Rockets are clearly reeling right now with 11-straight losses and 8 of those beats came against teams with sub .500 records. Brooklyn has won and covered 6 straight road games and they’ll get another big win here. |
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03-03-21 | St. Joe's v. La Salle OVER 151 | Top | 72-66 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 6 m | Show |
#701/702 ASA CBB TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 151 Points – LaSalle vs St Josephs, Wednesday at 11 AM ET - We expect this one to be a shootout. These 2 A10 foes faced each other on February 20th and the final score was St Joes 91 – LaSalle 82 in OT. At the end of the regulation the score was 77-77 so they totaled 154 prior to OT. Neither team was all that efficient in that game with St Joes averaging 1.01 PPP and LaSalle putting up 0.97 PPP, both below their season averages. These are the 2 fastest paced teams in the conference so as expected, we had a LOT of shot attempts in that first meeting. St Joes made 33 of their 68 shot attempts and LaSalle hit 31 of their 79 shot attempts. As you can see they only made 43% of their shots and combined to make just 24% of their 3’s yet these 2 still hit 154 in regulation. On top of that, they only hit 63% of their FT’s in the game. These are the 2 worst defensive efficiency teams in the conference and it shows on the court. The Explorers have allowed at least 73 points in 14 of their 16 conference games this season. The Hawks have allowed at least 80 points in 9 of their 12 A10 games. These 2 defenses rank 260th and 342nd in points allowed nationally this season. St Joes offense has really stepped it up over the last 3 games after getting star G Daly back in the line up after he missed 10 straight games. They have scored 97, 91, and 76 points in their 3 games since he came back and he is averaging 25 PPG in those 3. LaSalle was missing G Sanders, on of their top 3-point shooters, in their first meeting vs St Joes and he is now back and healthy. Both of these teams have the offense to get into the 80’s and higher and in a fast paced game with no defense, we like the OVER. |
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03-02-21 | Wisconsin v. Purdue -1.5 | Top | 69-73 | Win | 100 | 15 h 3 m | Show |
#644 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Purdue -1.5 over Wisconsin, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - The Badgers are not living up to expectations this year and they are flat out playing poorly right now. They are just 5-6 SU their last 11 games and their wins during that stretch have come against Nebraska, Northwestern (twice), Maryland, and Penn State. Against the top 6 teams in the Big 10 they are 0-6 SU this season. They haven’t faced Purdue yet, but the Boilers fall into the top 6 category ranking 6th in the league. Offensively UW has been really struggling as they have not gotten to 70 points in a full month. During that stretch they are shooting just 35% as a team. On the road this season the Badgers are hitting just 39% of their shots overall and only 30% from beyond the arc. Purdue has been very tough at home with a 9-1 record and their only loss coming to Michigan, the top team in the conference. How has Wisconsin done when traveling to Purdue? Terrible to put it lightly. The Badgers are 4-41 SU all time at Mackey Arena and their last with there came in 2014, the year Wisconsin went to the Final 4. While the Badgers are struggling, Purdue is playing much better having won 9 of their last 12 games. On offense they have had problems making 3-pointers, however the Boilers are much better at home in this area hitting 35% from deep and the Wisconsin defense has allowed their last 4 opponents to combine to shoot 46% from beyond the arc. Last year Purdue was favored by 4 in this match up at home and won 70-51. Now we’re getting them at a lower number vs a Wisconsin team that is headed in the wrong direction. Purdue wins and covers this one. |
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03-02-21 | Knicks v. Spurs UNDER 215.5 | Top | 93-119 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 215.5 NY Knicks vs. San Antonio Spurs, 8:35 PM ET - Both teams have favored the Under on the season with a combined 25-40 Under record and tonight they add to that record. These two teams are similar in many regards including poor offense ranking 21st (Spurs) and 29th (Knicks) in scoring in the NBA. When it comes to offensive efficiency the Spurs are 21st in the league while the Knicks are 23rd. It’s also no secret both teams like to play defense. The Knicks allow just 104PPG on the year which is the best overall number in the NBA while the Spurs give up 111.7PPG which ranks 12th. New York has the 2nd best defensive efficiency numbers allowing just 1.081-points per possession, the Spurs give up 1.108PPP which is 11th best in the NBA. The other important factor here is pace of play. The Knicks are the slowest paced team in the NBA at 96.2 possessions per game so playing slow is a priority for New York. The Spurs are 12th in pace of play but they are coming off a game last night so expect them to play at a slower tempo here. In fact, in games that the Spurs have played without rest the average total points scored in those contests is just 205.8PPG. San Antonio is on a 4-1 Under run at home and have stayed Under in 6 of their last eight overall. New York is on a ridiculous 14-3 Under streak their last 17 road games. Bet UNDER in the Knicks vs. Spurs. |
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03-01-21 | Nuggets v. Bulls OVER 226 | Top | 118-112 | Win | 100 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 226 Denver Nuggets @ Chicago Bulls, 8 PM ET - Points shouldn’t be a problem for these two teams tonight as both average 114+ points per game and rank in the top 8 in overall scoring. The interesting part though is both teams score in different fashions. The Bulls get their points with volume scoring opportunities as they are the 4th fastest paced team in the NBA. The Nuggets don’t play fast, but score with the 5th most efficient offense in the NBA at 1.17-points per possession. Another reason for plenty of scoring here is the lack of defense by both teams. You have to scroll down the defensive efficiency list to 14th to find the Bulls and 20th for the Nuggets. Chicago has the 9th best 3-point shooting FG percentage in the NBA, Denver is 5th. Both teams rank 7th or higher in overall field-goal percentage. Nuggets on 20-6 Over streak as a road favorite, Bulls 7-3 to the Over their last ten as a home dog. |
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03-01-21 | Rutgers -7 v. Nebraska | Top | 51-72 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
#841 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Rutgers -7 over Nebraska, Monday at 7 PM ET - This is a huge game for the NCAA bubble team Rutgers. They are 9-9 in Big 10 play and cannot afford a loss at last place Nebraska. The Scarlet Knights are in a much better situation for this match up as they have had off since their win over Indiana last Wednesday. Nebraska, on the other hand, continues their brutal scheduling with their 5th game in 10 days. Since returning from their Covid break in early February, this will be the Huskers 12th game in 24 days. Nebraska has just 2 wins in their last 16 games including a win over Minnesota on Saturday here at home. That was a 4 point win over a Gopher team that is trending downward losing 8 of their last 10 games and they played on Saturday without starting guard Kalscheur and starting center Robbins who were out with injury. The Huskers shot WAY above their season averages hitting 55% for the game (they average 41% on the season) and 53% from 3-point range (they average 33% for the season) and were still leading by only 1 point with under 20 seconds remaining the game. This is a bad match up for Nebraska. They struggle big time on offense ranking 14th (dead last) in the Big 10 in offensive efficiency. Rutgers defense has been exceptional all season ranking 14th nationally in defensive efficiency. The Knights defense also creates a lot of turnovers ranking 2nd in the conference while Rutgers has been careless with the ball all season long coughing it up almost 20% of the time which is last in the Big 10. Lastly, the Nebraska defense excels at guarding the arc and that’s about it. However, Rutgers relies very little on the 3 point shot with only 28% of their points coming from deep. When these 2 met in Lincoln last year, Rutgers was favored by 5 points and won by 17. We see another double digit win for the Scarlet Knights so we’re laying the points. |
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02-28-21 | Warriors v. Lakers UNDER 223 | Top | 91-117 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 223 Golden State Warriors @ LA Lakers, 8 PM ET - Our analytics don’t see these two rivals combining for more than 218 total points in this contest. You’ll be surprised to know that neither of these two teams rank in the top half of the NBA when it comes to offensive efficiency. The Warriors (18th) average 1.11PPP while the Lakers (19th) average 1.109PPP. In their last five games the Lakers have been worse yet averaging 1.029PPP which is 29th in the league, barely above the Timberwolves. On the other end of the court though both teams have been outstanding this season when it comes to defense. The Lakers are the #1 rated defensive efficiency team in the league while the Warriors are 4th. Inside their DEFF numbers a couple key stats that stand out are each teams FG% defense as they Warriors rank 2nd overall in the NBA, the Lakers 5th. Golden State is coming off a high scoring game against a bad defensive team in Charlotte, but prior to that game had totaled less than 220 total points in three straight games. As we mentioned before the Lakers offense has been atrocious without Anthony Davis in the lineup as L.A. has failed to reach 100-points in three of their last five games and 102 or less in four of five. Golden State on 5-1 Under run their last six road games, Lakers Under in 5 of their last six. |
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02-28-21 | Knicks v. Pistons UNDER 215 | Top | 109-90 | Win | 100 | 14 h 31 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 215 NY Knicks @ Detroit Pistons, 8 PM ET - This certainly isn’t a marquee game on the ticket Sunday but it’s one that offers the best opportunity to win. Let’s start with pace of play first. These two teams are two of the slowest paced teams in the NBA and neither want to get up and down here. In fact, the Knicks are the slowest paced team in the NBA at 96.1 possessions per game, while the Pistons are the 6th slowest. When it comes to offense both teams struggle as the Pistons average just 108PPG which ranks 25th in the NBA. Detroit is 28th in field goal percentage and 25th in 3-point percentage. The Pistons are 25th in offensive efficiency rating averaging .979-points per possession. New York has similar numbers when it comes to offense as they score just 104.7PPG (29th), shot just 45.1% (24th) and 36.4% from beyond the 3-point line. The Knicks are also one of the worst offensive efficiency teams in the league ranking 23rd. Defensively the Knicks are 3rd in the NBA in points allowed per possession at 1.087PPP while the Pistons are 19th at 1.123PPP. The Knicks are 4-13 Under on the road this season while the Pistons are 6-9 Under at home. Pistons on 5-1 Under run overall, while Knicks on 21-9 Under streak last 30 games. These two don’t reach 210 total points here. |
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02-28-21 | Nevada +8 v. Utah State | Top | 66-87 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
#815 ASA TOP PLAY ON Nevada +8 over Utah State, Sunday at 7 PM ET - These 2 played on Friday night here in Logan, Utah and the Aggies came away with a 75-72 win. It was a bad spot for Nevada as they were coming off a 19 day Covid layoff and we expected them to be rusty. They were as USU built a 16-point halftime lead and the Wolfpack made only 8 field goals in the first 20 minutes. They fell down by as many as 21 points but we were impressed with Nevada’s resolve. They battled back and nearly pulled off the win. Head coach Steve Alford admitted his team looked rusty for the first 25 minutes of the game but looked much more like themselves in the final 15 minutes. That’s a big positive heading into this game. Before their long layoff this Nevada team was very good. They won 6 of their 8 games before their hiatus including topping Boise State twice and the Broncos were in 1st place heading into this weekend before dropping 2 very tight games vs San Diego State, the highest rated team in the MWC. They are 9-6 in league play and all 6 of their losses have come by margins of 2, 2, 3, 5, 5, and 7 points. Utah State has faced the top 5 teams in the league a combined 7 times. They are 4-3 SU & 3-4 ATS in those games and they are just 4-5 SU & 3-6 ATS vs top 100 teams (Nevada falls into that category). Their starting PG Worster (10 PPG & 4 APG) has now missed 3 straight games and he is questionable at best again on Sunday. On Friday Nevada shot just 34% from inside the arc and attempted only 14 FT’s. On the season in MWC play they average 52% inside the arc and they get to the FT line more than any other team with 22% of their points coming from the line (they make 77% of those FT’s). Even with that (they were also -7 made FTs) they came back and took this Utah State team to the wire. With their momentum in the final 15 minutes on Friday, we think the Wolfpack will play much better on Sunday. They have covered 16 of their 21 games this year and we expect another tight one here. Take the points. |
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02-27-21 | Pacers v. Knicks +1 | Top | 107-110 | Win | 100 | 14 h 41 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* New York Knicks +1 over Indiana Pacers, 8 PM ET - We like the situation to fade the Pacers here who are playing the second night of a back-to-back and 3rd game in four nights. Indiana lost a big game last night against the Celtics with four of their five starters logging heavy minutes. That’s a big concern considering they rank 25th in bench scoring in the NBA and lack depth. The Pacers will have a tough time scoring here against a Knicks team that is 1st in points allowed per game, 1st in FG% defense and 1st in 3-point percentage D. New York allows just 1.087 points per possession which ranks 3rd overall in the NBA. New York has struggled offensively for the season but seem to have found their rhythm after putting up 140 points against the Kings. The Knicks have won 5 of their last seven games including 4 of their last five at home. The play here is New York. |
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02-27-21 | Wolves v. Wizards OVER 237.5 | Top | 112-128 | Win | 100 | 8 h 59 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 237.5 Minnesota Timberwolves @ Washington Wizards, 7PM ET - The Total on this game seems relatively high in the mid-230’s but our predictive analytics are projecting 240 plus in this game. Minnesota recently made a coaching change but it won’t affect their style of play as new coach Finch prefers to play fast and shoot a lot of 3’s. The Wolves currently 6th in the league in possessions per game which plays right into Washington’s hands who rank 1st in the NBA in pace. Washington is one of the highest scoring teams in the league led by the 1-2 combination of Beal and Westbrook. The Wolves are coming off a game against the Bulls who are similar to Washington in terms of pace and efficiency ratings and that game had 238 total points at the end or regulation. The Wiz are coming off three straight games against some of the leagues slower paced teams and will welcome the faster pace they prefer on Saturday. Neither team is known for their defense as the Wizards own the 27th ranked defensive efficiency unit while the Wolves are 22nd. Minnesota gives up 116.1PPG (27th) while Washington allows 119.5PPG (29th). The last five meetings between these two teams have all resulted in 239 or more points. BET OVER! |
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02-27-21 | North Dakota State v. South Dakota -1 | Top | 71-80 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
#682 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* South Dakota -1 over North Dakota State, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET - This is just the 2nd home game this month for South Dakota. That was their most recent game and a win one week ago vs Nebraska Omaha and prior to that the Coyotes had lost 3 of 4 but those games were all on the road (4 straight road games). At home this year they are perfect in Summit League play and their only home loss this season was vs Drake, who is a top 25 type team when fully healthy. Their last home loss in conference play was last season vs this North Dakota State team (lost by 3) so some extra motivation for the Coyotes here. In fact, they have won 15 of their last 16 conference home games with that only loss coming vs NDSU. The Bison sit a half game behind South Dakota in 2nd place in the Summit but their road resume has been shaky at best. They are 3-6 SU on the road this year and their conference games on the road (6 of them) have been vs UMKC twice (ranked 215th and split the 2 games), North Dakota twice (ranked 299th and split the 2 games), and Western Illinois (ranked 305th). They have not played any of the top teams in the league on the road this season. On top of that, the Bison haven’t played a road game in a full month! Every game they’ve played in February has been at home. South Dakota averages 84 PPG, 54% shooting, and 45% from 3-point range at home. They also make 81% of their FT’s in conference play which is best in the league. They are tough to stop here at the Sanford Sports Complex. North Dakota State struggles on offense at times and they are averaging only 66 PPG on the road this season. We think they’ll have a hard time scoring enough to stay in this one. With the line set where it is, we basically just need South Dakota to win this game at home. We’ll take our chances with that. |
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02-26-21 | Nevada v. Utah State -7.5 | Top | 72-75 | Loss | -108 | 14 h 4 m | Show |
#880 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Utah State -7.5 over Nevada, Friday at 9 PM ET - Utah State finally gets to play at home. They have played 5 straight road games with their most recent home game coming back on January 21st. They’ve had a huge home court advantage over the years winning 37 of their last 41 games in Logan and they are one of the few teams in the MWC that is allowing fans so that helps as well. The Aggies had a 13 day break from Feb 4 thru Feb 17 so they were a bit rusty last week in their back to back games @ Boise State, the 1st place team in the conference. Even with that, this Aggie team played quite well taking the Broncos to the wire in each losing by 9 (it was a 1-point game with 4:30 remaining) and losing by 4. USU led both games at halftime but shot just 7 of 30 from 3-point range in the 2 games combined and they were -16 made FT’s. Despite that, they nearly pulled off wins vs 14-3 (in MWC play) Boise State. Now back at home in must win mode we expect them to play very well. They are catching Nevada in a bad spot. The Wolfpack are just back from a Covid hiatus and haven’t played in 20 days. They have a solid 9-5 MWC record but they are 0-4 SU on the road in conference play. That’s right, only 4 of their 14 conference games have been true road games. We expect Nevada to struggle on offense after their long layoff and it doesn’t help they are playing the top defense in the Mountain West. Utah State ranks #1 in defensive efficiency, 3-point % defense, 2-point % defense, and blocked shots. It’ll be tough for a Nevada team that shoots just 42% on the road (31% from 3) to get any offensive rhythm in this game. USU has already proven they can beat the best in the league here at home as they swept the top rated team San Diego State. The host has covered 8 of the last 9 in this series and we like Utah State to win this by double digits. |
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02-25-21 | Ohio State v. Michigan State OVER 145 | Top | 67-71 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 37 m | Show |
#765/766 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 145 Points – Ohio State @ Michigan State, Thursday at 9 PM ET - These two met a few weeks ago and they combined to score 141 points with OSU winning 79-62. The 2 teams combined to shoot only 38% in that game including just 26% from beyond the arc and they still topped 140. We look for a much better offensive performance from both teams on Thursday. The Spartans season only offensive efficiency numbers are not overly impressive but over the last few games this teams seems to be coming together on that end of the court. They combined to shoot 51% while scoring 78 and 81 points in their last 2 games vs Indiana (37th nationally in defensive efficiency) and Illinois (15th nationally in defensive efficiency). In their first game vs OSU the Spartans were just coming back from a long Covid break and struggled scoring just 0.89 PPP which was well below their season average of 1.08 PPP. If the Buckeyes have a weakness, it’s on defense where they rank 7th in the Big Ten in defensive efficiency and 9th in eFG% defense. We think MSU continues to play well on offense in this game. OSU’s offense has been fantastic all season. They rank 3rd nationally in offensive efficiency and in the top 60 in eFG%, 3-point FG%, 2-point FG%, and FT%. They just put up 87 points over the weekend on Michigan who is the #1 defense in the Big Ten (MSU ranks 8th in that category). They have scored at least 73 points in 8 straight games and they have topped 80 in half of those games (4). Both teams get to the FT line a lot (3rd and 4th in Big Ten in % of points from the line) and in the first meeting they combined to attempt 60 freebies. If they simply shoot better from the field in this one, this easily gets into the 150’s. Ohio state has gone OVER the total in 6 of their last 7 games (one push during that stretch) while MSU, with their offense now coming together, has gone OVER 3 straight games. With the spread at OSU -4, the projected scored is 76-72. We like both teams to top their projected numbers and this one goes OVER the total. |
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02-25-21 | Kings v. Knicks UNDER 222.5 | Top | 121-140 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 222.5 Sacramento Kings @ NY Knicks, 7:30 PM ET - Two contrasting styles square off in the Garden Thursday night where the faster paced Kings (20th in pace) take on the leagues slowest paced team in the Knicks. New York is one of the best defensive teams in the NBA allowing just 1.084 points per possession which is 3rd best in the league. The Kings on the other hand are last in the league in DEFF allowing 1.190PPP. Offensively the Knicks are 23rd in the NBA in offensive efficiency averaging 1.081PPP, the Kings rank 11th at 1.131PPP. The Kings have given up a ton of points in their last five games which has driven this Total up to as high as it currently is but the reality is they’ve faced some of the NBA’s highest scoring teams recently. Sacramento gave up 127 and 136 to the Nets (1st in scoring), 128 to Milwaukee (2nd), 122 Chicago (8th) and 118 to the Heat who are finally healthy. The Knicks aren’t interested in playing a fast-paced game and getting into a shootout, so they’ll dictate tempo. New York has held 5 of their last ten opponents to less than 100-points and they’ve scored less than 110 in 8 of their last ten. The Kings are on a 5-0 Under run against losing teams while the Knicks are 10-1 Under their last eleven against sub .500 teams. The bet here is UNDER the Total. |
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02-24-21 | Spurs v. Thunder UNDER 217.5 | Top | 99-102 | Win | 100 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 217.5 San Antonio Spurs @ Oklahoma City Thunder, 8 PM ET - When we combined these two team’s overall O/U records we see there is a slight trend towards the Under with a 27 Over & 31 Under combined record. The Spurs are in a tough spot here playing their first game after a 10-day layoff because of Covid protocols. San Antonio had to call up some players from the G-league and will be down to 10-players on the roster tonight. Missing from the Spurs lineup are FIVE double-digit scorers and a combined 71.4 points per game! OKC comes into this game having scored 105 or less points in regulation in 5 of their last nine games and 110 or less in 6 of nine. The Thunder are the WORST offensive efficiency team in the NBA at 1.050 points per possession, the Spurs aren’t much better (21st) at 1.100PPP. Both teams are solid defensively though with San Antonio ranking 10th in defensive efficiency, the Thunder are 13th in DEFF. When the Spurs have face losing teams with a below .400 winning percentage, they are 5-2 to the Under this season. Tying into that same train of thought, the Thunder are Under 14 of their last twenty when facing a team with a winning record. The bet here is UNDER |
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02-24-21 | Seton Hall -7.5 v. Butler | Top | 52-61 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
#683 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Seton Hall -7.5 over Butler, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - We’re getting one of the top teams in the Big East here coming off a loss. Seton Hall lost at Georgetown 81-75 on Saturday. The Hoyas host lights out hitting 50% of their shot overall and 62% of their 3-pointers. Even with that fantastic offensive effort by Georgetown, the Pirates were in the game all the way and lost by just 6. Prior to that loss Seton Hall had won 6 of their previous 8 road games with their lone road losses during this stretch coming by 2 points @ Villanova , the top team in the Big East, and @ Creighton, the 2nd rated team in the conference. Butler, since coming back from their month long Covid break, is just 1-3 with their only win coming by 2 points in OT. The Bulldogs are just 3-3 their last 6 home games with 2 of those wins coming in OT. Butler has played 10 home games this year and they’ve actually been outscored in those games. Butler just lost by double digits vs Xavier and the Bulldogs were without 3 of their top players in that game. The 3 players that were out vs Xavier (Nze, Thompson, and Hodges) combine to average 30 PPG and 17 RPG on the season. They are all questionable again for this game. Butler’s offense already struggles with those guys at full strength as they rank 10th in the Big East in offensive efficiency and 10th in eFG%. They have averaged just 57 PPG over their last 3 games and if those guys are out or not at 100%, this team is in trouble on offense. Seton Hall has a big edge on offense (ranks 23rd nationally in offensive efficiency) and if this one comes down to FT’s, the Pirates hit 77% of their freebies in Big East play while Butler makes only 63% from the line. The road team has covered 5 straight in this series and we like Seton Hall to roll in this game. |
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02-23-21 | Connecticut -4 v. Georgetown | Top | 70-57 | Win | 100 | 15 h 52 m | Show |
#635 ASA CBB TOP PLAY ON 10* Connecticut -4 over Georgetown, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - We like the value we’re getting with UConn in this game. The Huskies are just 7-6 in Big East play but they are much better than their record. That’s because their top player, James Bouknight, one of the top NBA prospects in the Big East, is now back in the lineup after missing 8 games. He’s been back for 2 games, played 60 minutes, scored 40 points, and 14 rebounds. With Bouknight in the lineup, the Huskies have a 6-2 record with their only losses to Creighton in OT and Villanova by 8 on Saturday. With him out of the lineup, UConn has a record of 4-4. We’re getting the Huskies off a tough loss @ Villanova on Saturday in a game where they made only 36% of their shots, 26% of their 3-pointers, and were -6 made FT’s and still only lost by 8 on the road vs the top team in the conference. We expect a strong performance off that loss. Georgetown is on the opposite end of the spectrum coming into this game. They are off a huge 81-75 home win over Seton Hall as a 4.5 point underdog. The Hoyas shot the lights out in that win hitting 50% of their shots overall and a ridiculous 62% of their 3-pointers and the game was still nip and tuck the entire 2nd half. We have a feeling the won’t shoot like that in this game vs a UConn team that ranks #1 in the Big East in defensive efficiency. Plus this game is being played at Capital One Arena in Washington DC, home of the Wizards, and this will be G’Towns first game here this season so home court advantage, if there was any, is out the window. At home this season the Hoyas were +4.5 vs Seton Hall over the weekend, +4.5 vs Marquette, +4.5 vs Providence, and +7.5 vs Creighton. Based on those numbers, we’re getting value with UConn who we have rated as the 3rd best team in the Big East when fully healthy. We like UConn to win and cover here. |
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02-23-21 | 76ers -120 v. Raptors | Top | 109-102 | Win | 100 | 7 h 7 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Philadelphia 76ers Money Line -120 over Toronto Raptors, 7:35 PM ET - We like the 76ers in this second game of the back-to-back with the Raptors who won the first meeting by 7-points. The Raptors won Sunday but Philly clearly had some anomalies which attributed to Toronto’s win. 76ers center Joel Embiid had a poor shooting night going 6 of 20 from the field, which is well below his season average of 53.6%. Embiid was coming off a 50-point game so the let down is not a surprise given the circumstances. Because of Embiids poor shooting night, the Raptors outscored the Sixers in the paint which is not normal considering Philly is 14th in the league compared to Toronto being 28th in points in the paint. Philadelphia is the 9th best shooting team in the NBA at 47.7% but shot just 39% on Sunday. The Raptors are the 22nd worst shooting team in the league, yet shot 49%, well above their season average against Philly on Sunday. The Raptors do not enjoy a home court advantage like they typically have in the past as their home games are currently played in Florida. With the 76ers back at full strength and coming off a loss to Toronto we like them here in payback mode. |
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02-22-21 | Wizards +7 v. Lakers | Top | 127-124 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Washington Wizards +7 over LA Lakers, 10 PM ET - If you’ve followed ASA for any length of time you know stats, averages, numbers drive our handicapping process. But there also other factors that go into it and we couldn’t help but notice how tired LeBron looked in the Lakers last game against the Heat. James played 37+ minutes, scored 19-points on 7 of 21 shooting, with 11 rebounds and 9 assists. It’s clear the real MVP of the Lakers is Anthony Davis and without him on the court the Lakers and the aging James are good, but not great. We are ignoring the full season statistics for both teams in this matchup and focusing on the last five games for each. Without AD the Lakers offensive efficiency numbers have plummeted as have their defensive efficiency ratings. The Lakers have the #1 ranked defensive efficiency on the season, but in their last five games they rank 14th. Los Angeles is 2-3 SU their last five games and off two straight losses against Brooklyn and Miami. The Wizards on the other hand look like they’ve started to figure things out. Washington has won 4 straight games and they’ve come against quality competition (Boston, Houston, Denver & Portland). The Wiz have one of the worst defensive efficiency ratings in the NBA on the season but in their last five games they rank 4th best. In their last five games the Wiz are shooting 46.5% and holding foes to 43% shooting. In that same span of those games the Lakers are shooting 45.5% and allowing 47.6%. The Lakers are 0-7 ATS when playing a below .500 opponent this season and this number is too much for the short-handed Lakers to cover. Wizards on a 5-1 ATS run their last six against a team with a winning record. |
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02-22-21 | Oregon v. USC -3.5 | Top | 58-72 | Win | 100 | 14 h 2 m | Show |
#870 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* USC -3.5 over Oregon, Monday at 9 PM ET - We like the line value AND the situation for USC here. They were just favored by 6 at home vs Arizona, a team we have power rated almost dead even with Oregon, but now they are laying just 3.5. The Trojans are coming off a home loss, just their 4th loss of the season (now 18-4 record, vs the Wildcats. It wasn’t a huge surprise as Arizona was coming off back to back losses and it was a huge game for the talented Wildcats. USC shot just 42% in the game (they average 47% at home) and averaged just 1.03 PPP and their season average is 1.14 PPG so it was an underwhelming performance from the Trojans. At home USC has won 28 of their last 32 games and their average home margin of victory is +13 this season. The Trojans were on a huge roll winning 13 of their previous 14 coming into Saturday’s game vs Arizona. Oregon is coming of back to back huge home wins over Colorado & Utah. Both games went to the wire with the Ducks winning by 4 & 3 points. Now this is a tough spot for the Ducks as they are playing their 5th game in 12 days. USC has been a great bounce back team covering 9 of their last 11 games following an outright loss. Their 6 home wins in Pac 12 play have come by margins of 17, 18, 13, 8, 26, and 18 points. The Ducks have 4 conference road wins, but three of those have coming vs Utah, Arizona State, and Washington, all who have losing records in the Pac 12 (and losing overall records). The Trojans have the BEST defense in the Pac 12 in terms of defensive efficiency and eFG% allowed. Over the weekend they allowed Arizona to hit 1.16 PPP which was their worst defensive effort by far this season in Pac 12 play. Expect USC to play very well on defense tonight vs Oregon and we like the Trojans to pick up the win and cover. |
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02-21-21 | Kings v. Bucks OVER 237 | Top | 115-128 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 237 Sacramento Kings @ Milwaukee Bucks, 9 PM ET - The Bucks are coming off a couple low scoring games against Toronto and Oklahoma City but now face a Kings team that is one of the worst in the NBA defensively. In fact, the Kings rank 30th in the NBA in defensive efficiency as they allow 1.187 points per possession or 119.3PPG. Sacramento’s defense is last in the league in field goal percentage D and 29th in 3-point percentage D. This game presents the perfect opportunity for a Bucks offense that has been struggling to return to early season success. Milwaukee is 2nd in the league in scoring at 118.9PPG, 2nd best shooting team overall and own the 3rd best 3-point FG%. Obviously, to get this Over to cash we are going to need both teams to play fast. The Bucks are 5th in the league in pace of play while the Kings are 11th so we can expect a faster paced game. Also, we will need Sacramento to score here to get to this number and the Kings rank 12th in offensive efficiency at 1.131PPP. Based on recent Total on Milwaukee games this number is actually a bargain considering the opponent. Bet OVER here. |
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02-21-21 | Michigan v. Ohio State +2 | Top | 92-87 | Loss | -112 | 7 h 41 m | Show |
#798 ASA PLAY ON Ohio State +2 over Michigan, Sunday at 1 PM ET - We had this one power rated to OSU -3 so we feel there is some value with the Buckeyes. Michigan is 10-1 in the Big 10 and on top of the conference but they are still getting back into a groove after a long 3 week layoff. Since they’ve come back they’ve only played 2 games beating Wisconsin on the road and Rutgers at home. Their win @ Wisconsin may look like a big win but the Badgers have really been struggling over the last few weeks and UW actually led for much of that game including by 14 at half. The Wolverines other game was a 7 point home win over Rutgers. Their offense wasn’t great in either game as they combined to make only 43% of their shots in their first 2 games back from the Covid break, well below their season average of 49%. In their first 2 games they’ve underperformed both offensively and defensively on a points per possession basis when comparing to their overall conference stats on the season. The Wolverines road schedule to date has been one of the easiest in the Big 10 as they have not faced any of the top 4 rated teams in the conference on the road yet this season. Until Sunday. Ohio State is playing as well as any team in the country right now. They have won 7 straight and 10 of their last 11 with their only loss during that stretch coming vs Purdue by just 2 points. That was a game the Buckeyes shot just 37%, played without their starting PG, and still led by 5 with under 2:00 remaining. OSU hasn’t had any long Covid interruptions and they are in a groove right now. They are 12-4 in the conference and 8 of those wins have come by double digits. If they want any shot at a Big 10 title, they have to win this home game vs first place Michigan. They are catching the Wolverines at a perfect time as they are still trying to get their legs back under them after their break. The host has covered 8 of the last 10 in this rivalry and where the line sits now at -1, all we need OSU to do is win this game. We think they will. |
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02-20-21 | Wizards v. Blazers -4 | Top | 118-111 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Portland Trailblazers -4 over Washington Wizards, 10 PM ET - The Wiz have the 4th worst average loss margin in the NBA when playing on the road at minus -8.1PPG and hold a 3-12 SU road record. Portland has been better on the road than they’ve been at home this season, but they have won three straight home games and are on a red hot 6-game winning streak overall. The Blazers current run of 6 straight wins have come by an average of 8.6PPG. On the season the Blazers have some disturbing defensive numbers but so do the Wizards as both teams rank in the bottom six of the league in efficiency numbers. In their last five games though the Blazers are averaging 1.257 points per possession which is 5th best in the NBA. Even though Washington has won 3 straight games, their offensive efficiency their last five games ranks 22nd in the league and they have a negative differential of -2.6PPG. The biggest separator here is 3-point shooting. Washington holds the 25th worst 3-point percentage defense in the NBA allowing 38.4% while Portland is the 5th best 3-point shooting team in the NBA at 38.9%. The All-Star starters were recently released and MVP candidate Damian Lillard got snubbed so expect a motivated effort from him here. Washington is just 2-6 ATS their last eight road games, Blazers 6-1 ATS their last 7 at home against a team with a losing record. |
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02-20-21 | Seton Hall v. Georgetown OVER 141 | Top | 75-81 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
#709/710 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 141 Points – Seton Hall @ Georgetown, Saturday at 5:30 PM ET - We expect BOTH of these teams to get into the 70’s so it’s OVER the total for us. When these 2 met earlier this year they total 145 points with the Hall winning 78-67. They got to the mid 140’s yet neither team shot all that great as they combined to make just 39% of their shots. They both fell well below their points per possession numbers on the year with Seton Hall averaging 1.05 PPP in the first meeting (they average 1.14 on the season) and G’Town averaging just 0.91 PPP in that meeting (averaging 1.06 PPP on the season). The pace was quick in the first meeting as they combined to attempt 132 total shots (70 for the Hall & 62 for the Hoyas). Both teams are excellent FT shooting teams (75%) and they made 26 of their 31 FT’s in the first meeting. Historically these 2 Big East rivals have gotten to at least 140 in 6 of their last 7 meetings. The Hoyas have allowed 8 of their 11 Big East opponents to get to at least 70 points. In their most recent game vs Butler, who is the slowest team in the conference and 10th in offensive efficiency, the combined for 141 points. Seton Hall has had some low scoring games in Big East play but when they’ve faced one of the top 4 highest tempo teams in the league (G’Town in 3rd) the Pirates have totaled 145, 145, 141, 153, and 166 total points. We like OVER in this one. |
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02-19-21 | Toledo v. Buffalo -2 | Top | 80-70 | Loss | -101 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Buffalo -2 over Toledo, 9 PM ET - Raise your hand if you also think it’s “fishy” that Buffalo is favored in this game against a Toledo team that is 12-3 in conference action? The Rockets have been favored in 11 straight games and 18 of twenty-three this season and are now a dog to 9-6 Buffalo? When we examine conference games only we find the Rockets have the best offensive efficiency numbers in the league at 1.187PPP but Buffalo has the best defensive efficiency allowing just .929PPP. The Bulls offense isn’t as good as the Rockets, but they are 4th in offensive efficiency and will have an advantage over Toledo’s 6th ranked DEFF unit. Most of the other key statistical advantages Toledo would normally have over other teams are nullified by Buffalo’s defensive statistics. The biggest advantage the Bulls have is that they are the best offensive rebound team in the MAC compared to a Toledo defense that is LAST in the league in defensive rebounding. Buffalo is 29-9 SU their last 38 at home with an average margin of victory of +13PPG. The Bulls are playing extremely confident right now and will be primed for a game against the top team in the MAC here. |
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02-19-21 | Bulls +8.5 v. 76ers | Top | 105-112 | Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Chicago Bulls +8.5 over Philadelphia 76ers, 7:35PM ET - The Bulls have played better than expectations this season as evidenced by their overall winning spread record of 16-11 versus the number. Chicago has a losing overall record of 12-15 SU but their average loss margin is -0.8PPG which gets you a lot of covers as an underdog. In fact, the Bulls are on a wallet stuffing 10-1 ATS streak as a road underdog. The Bulls are more than capable of trading points with the 76ers with a top 10 scoring offense, 8th best overall shooting percentage in the NBA and the 7th best 3-point percentage at 38%. Philadelphia is 19-10 SU on the year with an average margin of victory of +3PPG. When playing at home the Sixers have a +/- differential of +6PPG which is 6th best in the league but still not enough to cover this spread against the Bulls. Philly is 5-2 ATS their last seven games at home as a favorite but only of those covers were as a favorite of this magnitude. In fact, when laying 7 or more points at home the 76ers are on a 1-3 ATS slide. Philly has a pair of bigger games on deck coming against Toronto and may look past this Bulls team. Grab the points. |
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02-18-21 | Heat v. Kings +1.5 | Top | 118-110 | Loss | -101 | 17 h 45 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Sacramento Kings +1.5 over Miami Heat, 10 PM ET - Scheduling clearly favors the Kings here who are rested and facing a Heat team coming off a big game against the Warriors last night AND have the Lakers looming on deck. Can you blame the Heat if they look past a Kings team that has lost four straight at home? Sacramento put together a four-game winning streak, prior to the 0-4 run, versus solid competition with wins against the Pelicans, Celtics, Nuggets and Clippers. A big reason the Kings have a losing record is their lack of defense, but Miami’s offensive numbers have been just as bad as the Kings defense. The Heat are 4-9 SU on the road this season with a negative differential of minus -5.5PPG. Let’s not forget Miami was bad on the road a year ago too with a 14-19 SU record and a -2.7 margin of victory. We expect the Kings to get a solid home win here given the scheduling circumstances. |
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02-18-21 | Rutgers v. Michigan UNDER 136.5 | Top | 64-71 | Win | 100 | 16 h 32 m | Show |
#763/764 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 136.5 Points – Rutgers @ Michigan, Thursday at 9 PM ET - Michigan just came back from a 3 week Covid stoppage and looked a bit rusty on offense. They shot just 41% in a 67-59 win @ Wisconsin over the weekend. The offense may take awhile to come around after the long break but we know the constant here will be their defense. They rank #1 in defensive efficiency in the Big 10 and #8 nationally. After holding the Badgers to 59 points on Saturday, they have now held half of their Big 10 opponents (5) to less than 60 points. That’s not great news for a Rutgers offense that is middle of the pack in offensive efficiency (7th in the Big 10) and averages only 65 PPG on the road this season. Rutgers defense is much better than their offense. They rank 12th nationally in defensive efficiency so we have 2 top 12 defenses in this game. Both teams rank in the bottom half of the league in tempo so we don’t expect an up and down game here. Neither team relies heavily on the 3-point shot with both ranking outside the top 200 with 29% (Michigan) and 26% (Rutgers) of their points coming from deep. That tells us the 3-point attempts will be limited here which favors the UNDER. On top of that, neither team gets to the FT line very often as they rank 13th & 12th in the conference in percentage of points coming from the stripe. So it looks like a lot of 2-point attempts in this game. Rutgers has gone UNDER the total in 4 of their last 5 games and Michigan has stayed below the total in 5 of their last 6. These 2 teams have met 8 times since Rutgers joined the Big 10 and only 2 of those games have topped 132 points. We like the UNDER here. |
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02-17-21 | Wyoming -6 v. New Mexico | Top | 83-74 | Win | 100 | 13 h 60 m | Show |
#705 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Wyoming -6 over New Mexico, Wednesday at 7:00 PM ET - This was supposed to be a home game for the Lobos but because of the state of New Mexico’s Covid related restrictions, they are not able to play at home this season. Thus, they’ve been on the road for ALL of their 16 games this season. Their “home” games thus far have been played in Lubbock, TX, St George, UT, and now tonight’s game will be in Colorado Springs. Not surprisingly, the Lobos are 1-11 in conference play during their disrupted season. They have not played a game since January 30th and they had to completely cancel their series with San Diego State a few weeks ago because they had just 5 scholarship players available to play due to injuries and players recently opting out of the remainder of the season. Head coach Weir mentioned his team just started practicing again a few days ago and a number of walkons who were not traveling with the team earlier this year are now with the team and could be in the rotation. The Lobos hopped on a bus on Tuesday morning to make the long 6 hour trip to Air Force for their “home” game. We have a feeling this team has cashed it for the season in a situation that is as tough as any in the country. Offensively they have been terrible this season. They rank dead last in the MWC in efficiency, eFG%, 3-point FG%, 2-point FG% and FT%. Not a huge surprise with all of the adversity and distractions they’ve faced. Wyoming is just 4-8 in MWC play but they’ve played a very tough slate already facing San Diego State, Nevada, Colorado State, and Boise State (4 of the top 5 teams in the conference) all twice this season. While New Mexico has been terrible on offense, the Cowboys are averaging 75 PPG (Lobos average 63 PPG) and they rank in the top 90 nationally in both offensive efficiency and eFG%. Wyoming is coming in on a 4 game losing streak losing 2 vs San Diego State and Colorado State and now they take a HUGE step down in competition. While this is a “home” game for the Lobos, they have yet to play in Colorado Springs this season while Wyoming has played here twice already this year losing by 3 to Air Force and then following that up with a 19 point win the next night. We can’t imagine New Mexico even wants to be here with all that has gone on in their program and we look for Wyoming to roll in this game. |
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02-17-21 | Hawks +3 v. Celtics | Top | 122-114 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Atlanta Hawks +3 over Boston Celtics, 7:35 PM ET - This game has some interesting movement on the spread as the line opened with Boston a larger favorite, got public support, and the line moved in the opposite direction. That’s a strange move consider the Hawks are just 2-8 SU their last ten games and have lost four straight. Granted we have lost a little value in this number, but the Hawks are the play here. In their last five games the Celtics have a 2-3 SU record with a negative differential of -1.2PPG. Boston’s offensive efficiency is down considerably in their last five games but they’re defensive efficiency numbers are good. In comparison, the Hawks have lost four of five, yet they have better OEFF numbers than the Celtics but worse DEFF. Atlanta has a plus/minus differential of minus -4.8PPG in this five game streak which isn’t far off this spread. The Hawks are 5-7 SU on the road this season but have a positive differential of +1.2PPG which is 13th best in the NBA. The Hawks are very good at defending the 3-point line (2nd best in the NBA) and negate the Celtics strength of 3-point shooting (6th). Boston is coming off a huge win last night over Denver and let down a little here. Bet the Hawks. |
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02-16-21 | Raptors v. Bucks -5.5 | Top | 124-113 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 33 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Milwaukee Bucks -5.5 over Toronto Raptors, 8 PM ET - The Bucks are coming off a straight up loss as a double-digit favorite and we like them to bounce back here against the Raptors who beat them in the conference finals two years ago. Milwaukee is coming off a tough six game West coast road trip with three straight losses but now return home where they are 9-2 SU on the season. Milwaukee’s two losses at home this year came against the Lakers and Jazz who are arguably the two best teams in the league. The Bucks have the second-best overall point differential in the NBA at +8.1PPG, the highest NBA average at home at +13.5PPG. The Bucks last three home wins have come by 20, 28 and 14-points. The Raptors are playing their 7th road game in their last eight contests and have a 6-9 SU road record on the year. Toronto’s road differential is 13th in the league at +1.2PPG. Both teams shoot the 3-ball well and don’t defend it well but Milwaukee is the better overall shooting team at 49.2% compared to 45.1% for Toronto. Since 2018 the Bucks are 76-15 SU on their home floor with an average margin of victory of +13.2PPG. Lastly, earlier this season the Bucks were favored by -6.5-points at Toronto (in Miami) and now laying less here. |
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02-16-21 | Dayton v. Rhode Island -3 | Top | 89-91 | Loss | -112 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
#612 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Rhode Island -3 over Dayton, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Here we have a team that has a 9-12 overall record favored by a full 3 points over a team that has an 11-6 overall record. Hmmm… We like the home favorite here. Rhode Island is coming in off 4 straight losses and they are in desperate need of a win. It’s their home finale and we expect the Rams to play very well. The opener of that 4 games losing streak for URI was a 67-56 loss @ Dayton, tonight’s opponent. In that loss the Rams top player Fatts Russell (15 PPG) was battling an injury and played a season low 19 minutes and scored a season low 4 points. HE missed URI’s next game which was a 1-point home loss vs VCU, the A10’s 1st place team and 2nd highest rated team. The Rams also lost by 7 @ St Louis in their most recent game and were very competitive vs the top rated team in the conference. Russell was back in the line up and they are back at full strength. This team is better than their record. Prior to their 4 games losing streak this team was on a 6-3 run including a road win VCU and St Bonnies (3rd rated team in the A10). In their first meeting on January 30th, the Rams made just 38% of their shots and 23% of their 3’s with the best player banged up. The Flyers have played 5 road games this year and they are 2-3 in those contests with one win coming in OT and they other coming by 5 points vs a St Louis team that was playing their first game in over a month due to covid. After this one Dayton has three HUGE games on deck vs St Louis, St Bonnies and VCU, the 3 best teams in the conference. Having already beaten URI, we wouldn’t be surprised if they were peaking ahead at that stretch of games. Rhode Island is the better defensive team ranking 33rd nationally in efficiency and they send teams to the FT line fewer than any other team in the A10. Big home game for the Rams and we like them to get the win and cover. |
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02-15-21 | Heat +3.5 v. Clippers | Top | 118-125 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Miami Heat +3.5 over LA Clippers, 10 PM ET - The line on this game suggests Paul George won’t be in the lineup for the Clippers tonight and the Heat, who are nearly back to full strength, will take advantage. Miami has struggled to a 11-15 SU record but they’ve been hit harder by injuries to their starting lineup with Butler, Herro, Dragic and Bradley all missing extended time. Butler and Herro are back and the Heat have won 4 of their last five games. In their last five games the Heat have the best overall defensive efficiency numbers allowing just 1.029-points per possession. The Clippers have the best overall offensive efficiency numbers in the NBA which can largely be attributed to great 3-point shooting. We feel LA’s hot shooting must regress and is unsustainable for a long period of time. The Clippers are shooting over 42% from deep this season which is significantly better than the league average of 36.8%. Miami is allowing near league average in 3-point percentage shooting by opponents this season, but injuries have had an impact. Last year the Heat were the 5th best team in the NBA defending the 3-point line. The Clippers have won 7 of their last ten games but NONE of those have come against a team with a winning record. Miami is off a loss (34-16-1 ATS run off a loss) in Utah in their previous game while the Clippers have a HUGE two game set against the Jazz next. |
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02-15-21 | East Tennessee State v. Chattanooga UNDER 134 | Top | 51-53 | Win | 100 | 21 h 38 m | Show |
#845/846 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 134 Points – East Tennessee State @ Chattanooga, Monday at 7 PM ET - These two met on February 6th and Chattanooga pulled the upset 67-65 putting up 132 total points. It was on pace for just 120 at halftime and with 10 minutes remaining in the game these two had put up just 82 total points. They put up a whopping 50 points in the final 10 minutes of the game, including 18 points in the last 2:30 of the game. They both eclipsed their season averages in offensive PPP and even after all of that it still went UNDER the total. These are 2 slow paced teams ranking 10th (ETSU) and 8th (Chattanooga) in tempo in Southern Conference play (10 team league). ETSU has gone UNDER the total in 6 of their last 7 games and if we throw out their games vs Citadel, Samford, and VMI (3 fastest paced teams in the league) they are averaging 131 total points and they’ve topped 134 points (tonight’s total) only twice in those 9 remaining games. Chattanooga has gone UNDER in 5 of their last 7 games and they just put up 136 total points over the weekend vs the Citadel who is the fastest paced team in the league AND the worst defensive team in the conference. Now they have a rematch vs an ETSU defense that ranks 3rd in the league and just allowed 49 points to Wofford, one of the better offensive teams in the SOCON. We think this one will be a grinder with neither getting to 70 points. We like the UNDER |
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02-14-21 | Spurs v. Hornets UNDER 228.5 | Top | 122-110 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 228.5 San Antonio Spurs @ Charlotte Hornets, 7PM ET - These two teams have been playing at a faster rate lately but their offensive efficiency numbers haven’t been very good for the season. The Spurs are the 21st worst offensive efficiency team in the NBA while the Hornets are 18th. San Antonio is the 20th ranked shooting team in the league and 17th from beyond the arc. Charlotte doesn’t shoot it much better at 45.7% overall (18th) but do hit 38% of their 3’s which is top ten. San Antonio has a top ten defensive efficiency rating allowing just 1.104-points per possession on the season. Charlotte is average in DEFF, ranking 16th at 1.118PPP. The Hornets have been much better at home defensively though with the 11th best DEFF and the Spurs in their last five games move up the rankings to the 5th best defensive efficiency number. The Hornets are on a 7-3-1 Under run at home as a dog while the Spurs on a 7-3 Under run when favored. Our computers project 223 total points here and we couldn’t agree more. |
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02-14-21 | Minnesota v. Maryland UNDER 138 | Top | 59-72 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
#825/826 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 138 Points – Minnesota @ Maryland, Sunday at 7 PM ET - These two met on January 23rd in Minneapolis and Maryland came away with a 63-49 win (112 total points). The Terps, the 2nd slowest tempo team in the Big 10, slowed the game down as they have done for much of the season. The two teams combined to take only 91 shots and made only 13 combined 3-pointers. We see a similar situation here with a low possession game. Neither team is great offensively as they rank 8th and 12th in the league in both offensive efficiency and eFG%. The Gophers are the worst 3-point shooting team in the Big 10 and Maryland ranks 7th in that category. The Terps offense has averaged only 61 PPG over their last 9 conference games and Minnesota on the road has put up just 64 PPG this season. Maryland’s offense has not topped 1.00 PPP in 6 consecutive games. Defensively they have held their last 9 Big 10 opponents to under their offensive PPP average. The Gophers have gone UNDER the total in 8 of their last 10 games and Maryland has stayed UNDER in 4 of their last 5. We don’t see either team getting to 70 in this game and we’ll grab the UNDER. |
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02-13-21 | Weber State +1 v. Montana | Top | 91-82 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
#687 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Weber State +1 over Montana, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET - These two played on Thursday night and Weber State lost 80-67 as a 1-point favorite @ Montana. That loss broke a 4 game winning streak for Weber and they are ready to get back at it on Saturday. The Wildcats come into this game ranked #2 in the Big Sky Conference in offensive efficiency and #3 in defensive efficiency. You wouldn’t have noticed that on Thursday as they allowed Montana to shoot over 50% and 1.18 PPP well above their season averages of 45% and 0.98 PPP. On the other end of the court Weber’s offense (which averages 50% from the field on the season) shot just 44% (only 21% from 3-point range) and averaged just 0.99 PPP. So we have the better team (11-5 overall / 6-3 in conference) that played below their normal expectation with a chance at quick revenge vs a team that exceeded their expectation. We like this situation. Montana has been in this spot a lot recently and failed miserably. In each of their last 3 second night of back to backs vs the same opponent, they won the first night and lost the 2nd night. Those 3 losses came at the hands of Northern Arizona, Sacramento State, and Portland State, all 3 ranked well below this Weber State team. The Wildcats have been solid after a subpar performance covering their last 4 games following a loss. Montana, as we mentioned, is the opposite going 0-5 ATS the game following a SU win. We expect Weber State to win this one so we’ll lay it on the road. |
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02-12-21 | Pelicans +3 v. Mavs | Top | 130-143 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* New Orleans +3 @ Dallas Mavericks, 7:35 PM ET - The bet here is New Orleans. If we look at the full season the Pelicans have the 8th best overall offensive efficiency rating in the NBA and in their last five games, they improve to 2nd overall. On the season the Mavs have the 15th best OEFF, or an average number by league standards. In their last five games though the Mavs have played better than average with the 4th best offensive efficiency numbers. The difference is the Pelicans improvement offensively in their last five games came against three teams that rank in the top 10 of the NBA in defensive efficiency. In comparison the Mavs played three games against teams that rank in the bottom half of the league in DEFF so their improvement shouldn’t come as a shock. Defensively Dallas has been far worse than New Orleans in their last five games as the Mavs are allowing 1.251-points per possession which is the second worst number in the NBA. Both teams are 4-1 SU their last five games but again, the Pels wins came against better overall competition AND they have a +9.6PPG differential compared to the Mavs negative or minus -3.4PPG. As a dog of +4.5 or less the Pelicans are 5-2 ATS this season and they’ve covered 4 straight as a Dog. As a favorite in that same price range the Mavs are just 4-6 ATS. It hasn’t been profitable to play the Mavericks at home in recent times as they sport a 5-16 ATS record at home in their last 21. |
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02-12-21 | St Bonaventure v. VCU -3 | Top | 64-67 | Push | 0 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
#866 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* VCU -3 over St Bonaventure, Friday at 7:00 PM ET - These two met a few weeks ago with VCU traveling to St Bonnies as a 2-point underdog. Everything looked great for the Rams at halftime as they jumped out to a 15-point lead scoring 40 points in the first half. Then came the VCU collapse. After scoring 40 points in the first half, they scored only 14 points in the second half and their 15 point lead at the break turned into a 16 point loss. VCU has won 4 straight since that loss and needless to say they’ve been waiting for this rematch. A win here and the Rams jump St Bonnies moving into first place in the Atlantic 10. Their defense has been lights out since that loss allowing 43, 62, 62, and 67 points over their last 4 games. The Rams are #2 in the A10 in defensive efficiency and #1 in defensive TO rate, blocked shots, and steals. At home this season they are averaging 78 PPG and allowing just 61 PPG. St Bonnies is a very solid team but they’ve played a very easy road schedule to date. The Bonnies are 3-2 SU on the road in league play but 2 of those wins came vs Fordham (last ranked team in the conference) and Duquesne (9th ranked team in the conference). Their most recent road game was @ St Louis who didn’t play a game for nearly a month (off from Dec 23 through Jan 26) and the Billikens beat St Bonaventure 70-59. Despite their easy road slate they are averaging just 63 PPG away from home while allowing 62 PPG. The favorite has covered 5 straight in this series and last year when these two met @ VCU, the Rams rolled up a huge 91-63 win. While we don’t expect a blowout here, we do like VCU to cover this small number at home. |
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02-11-21 | Raptors v. Celtics -3.5 | Top | 106-120 | Win | 100 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -3.5 over Toronto Raptors, 7:35 PM ET - This is a great spot to fade the Raptors and back the Celtics. This is a fill in game tonight and the Raptors are in a horrible scheduling situation with this being the backend of a second consecutive games. This will also be Toronto’s 5th game in just seven days. The Raptors played their starters extended minutes last night in their fast paced game against the Wizards and fatigue is going to be a factor. Boston has last night off and is coming off a pair of losses against two of the better teams in the West the Suns and Jazz so you can bet the C’s will be focused here. Boston is a perfect 3-0 ATS at home this season when coming off a SU loss. The Celtics have the 10th best home court point differential in the NBA at +4.4PPG and are 4-1 ATS as a home chalk this season. Boston has covered 7 of the last nine meetings and our metrics have them winning this game by 10+ points. |
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ASA Basketball Top Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
04-06-21 | Blazers v. Clippers -5.5 | Top | 116-133 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
04-05-21 | Baylor +4.5 v. Gonzaga | Top | 86-70 | Win | 100 | 24 h 33 m | Show |
04-04-21 | Magic v. Nuggets UNDER 214 | Top | 109-119 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
04-03-21 | Houston v. Baylor -5 | Top | 59-78 | Win | 100 | 47 h 40 m | Show |
04-02-21 | Hornets v. Pacers -4 | Top | 114-97 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
04-01-21 | Warriors v. Heat UNDER 220 | Top | 109-116 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
03-31-21 | Mavs v. Celtics +1 | Top | 113-108 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 33 m | Show |
03-30-21 | USC +8.5 v. Gonzaga | Top | 66-85 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 49 m | Show |
03-30-21 | Hornets -3.5 v. Wizards | Top | 114-104 | Win | 100 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
03-29-21 | Arkansas v. Baylor UNDER 148.5 | Top | 72-81 | Loss | -113 | 14 h 24 m | Show |
03-29-21 | Wolves v. Nets OVER 239 | Top | 107-112 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 46 m | Show |
03-29-21 | Oregon State v. Houston -7.5 | Top | 61-67 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
03-28-21 | Oregon v. USC -2 | Top | 68-82 | Win | 100 | 15 h 47 m | Show |
03-28-21 | Hawks +4.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 102-126 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
03-27-21 | Grizzlies v. Jazz UNDER 228.5 | Top | 110-126 | Loss | -113 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
03-27-21 | Mississippi State v. Louisiana Tech UNDER 136.5 | Top | 84-62 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 27 m | Show |
03-26-21 | Nuggets -1.5 v. Pelicans | Top | 113-108 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
03-25-21 | Louisiana Tech v. Western Kentucky UNDER 136.5 | Top | 72-65 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 17 m | Show |
03-25-21 | Wizards v. Knicks OVER 225.5 | Top | 102-106 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
03-24-21 | Hawks -2.5 v. Kings | Top | 108-110 | Loss | -112 | 15 h 44 m | Show |
03-24-21 | Coastal Carolina v. Pepperdine OVER 151.5 | Top | 61-84 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
03-23-21 | Pepperdine -6 v. Bellarmine | Top | 82-71 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
03-23-21 | Nuggets v. Magic UNDER 217 | Top | 110-99 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
03-22-21 | Hawks v. Clippers -6 | Top | 110-119 | Win | 100 | 28 h 14 m | Show |
03-22-21 | Abilene Christian v. UCLA -4.5 | Top | 47-67 | Win | 100 | 23 h 34 m | Show |
03-21-21 | Lakers v. Suns -3 | Top | 94-111 | Win | 100 | 23 h 12 m | Show |
03-21-21 | Oregon State +6.5 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 80-70 | Win | 100 | 23 h 29 m | Show |
03-20-21 | Kings v. 76ers -6.5 | Top | 105-129 | Win | 100 | 14 h 41 m | Show |
03-20-21 | Maryland v. Connecticut UNDER 130 | Top | 63-54 | Win | 100 | 24 h 27 m | Show |
03-19-21 | Pacers +4 v. Heat | Top | 137-110 | Win | 100 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
03-19-21 | Oral Roberts +16.5 v. Ohio State | Top | 75-72 | Win | 100 | 31 h 14 m | Show |
03-19-21 | Oral Roberts v. Ohio State OVER 156 | Top | 75-72 | Loss | -111 | 31 h 57 m | Show |
03-18-21 | Hornets +8 v. Lakers | Top | 105-116 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
03-18-21 | UCLA v. Michigan State UNDER 135 | Top | 86-80 | Loss | -109 | 15 h 5 m | Show |
03-18-21 | Norfolk State +3 v. Appalachian State | Top | 54-53 | Win | 100 | 39 h 47 m | Show |
03-17-21 | Western Kentucky v. St. Mary's UNDER 125 | Top | 69-67 | Loss | -105 | 39 h 37 m | Show |
03-17-21 | Spurs v. Bulls OVER 222.5 | Top | 106-99 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 34 m | Show |
03-16-21 | Pelicans v. Blazers -121 | Top | 124-125 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
03-15-21 | Kings v. Hornets -3 | Top | 116-122 | Win | 100 | 7 h 59 m | Show |
03-14-21 | Clippers v. Pelicans +6 | Top | 115-135 | Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
03-14-21 | Ohio State v. Illinois UNDER 150.5 | Top | 88-91 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 30 m | Show |
03-13-21 | North Texas v. Western Kentucky +1.5 | Top | 61-57 | Loss | -107 | 21 h 39 m | Show |
03-13-21 | Kings v. Hawks OVER 240 | Top | 106-121 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 46 m | Show |
03-12-21 | Connecticut +1 v. Creighton | Top | 56-59 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
03-12-21 | Nuggets v. Grizzlies +3.5 | Top | 103-102 | Win | 100 | 20 h 16 m | Show |
03-12-21 | Ohio State v. Purdue UNDER 143 | Top | 87-78 | Loss | -121 | 14 h 6 m | Show |
03-11-21 | Texas Tech v. Texas OVER 134.5 | Top | 66-67 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 34 m | Show |
03-11-21 | Celtics v. Nets -2.5 | Top | 109-121 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
03-10-21 | Spurs +4.5 v. Mavs | Top | 104-115 | Loss | -107 | 21 h 4 m | Show |
03-09-21 | Southern Miss v. Rice -4.5 | Top | 52-61 | Win | 100 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
03-08-21 | North Dakota State -3 v. South Dakota | Top | 79-75 | Win | 100 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
03-07-21 | Appalachian State v. Coastal Carolina -4 | Top | 64-61 | Loss | -112 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
03-07-21 | Memphis v. Houston -9.5 | Top | 64-67 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 46 m | Show |
03-06-21 | Xavier v. Marquette -1.5 | Top | 59-66 | Win | 100 | 15 h 42 m | Show |
03-05-21 | Valparaiso +7.5 v. Missouri State | Top | 55-66 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 5 m | Show |
03-05-21 | Evansville v. Indiana State UNDER 135 | Top | 43-53 | Win | 100 | 19 h 54 m | Show |
03-04-21 | Warriors v. Suns -6.5 | Top | 98-120 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
03-04-21 | Oklahoma State +11.5 v. Baylor | Top | 70-81 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
03-03-21 | Creighton v. Villanova -4 | Top | 60-72 | Win | 100 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
03-03-21 | Nets -8 v. Rockets | Top | 132-114 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
03-03-21 | St. Joe's v. La Salle OVER 151 | Top | 72-66 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 6 m | Show |
03-02-21 | Wisconsin v. Purdue -1.5 | Top | 69-73 | Win | 100 | 15 h 3 m | Show |
03-02-21 | Knicks v. Spurs UNDER 215.5 | Top | 93-119 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
03-01-21 | Nuggets v. Bulls OVER 226 | Top | 118-112 | Win | 100 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
03-01-21 | Rutgers -7 v. Nebraska | Top | 51-72 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
02-28-21 | Warriors v. Lakers UNDER 223 | Top | 91-117 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
02-28-21 | Knicks v. Pistons UNDER 215 | Top | 109-90 | Win | 100 | 14 h 31 m | Show |
02-28-21 | Nevada +8 v. Utah State | Top | 66-87 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
02-27-21 | Pacers v. Knicks +1 | Top | 107-110 | Win | 100 | 14 h 41 m | Show |
02-27-21 | Wolves v. Wizards OVER 237.5 | Top | 112-128 | Win | 100 | 8 h 59 m | Show |
02-27-21 | North Dakota State v. South Dakota -1 | Top | 71-80 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
02-26-21 | Nevada v. Utah State -7.5 | Top | 72-75 | Loss | -108 | 14 h 4 m | Show |
02-25-21 | Ohio State v. Michigan State OVER 145 | Top | 67-71 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 37 m | Show |
02-25-21 | Kings v. Knicks UNDER 222.5 | Top | 121-140 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
02-24-21 | Spurs v. Thunder UNDER 217.5 | Top | 99-102 | Win | 100 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
02-24-21 | Seton Hall -7.5 v. Butler | Top | 52-61 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
02-23-21 | Connecticut -4 v. Georgetown | Top | 70-57 | Win | 100 | 15 h 52 m | Show |
02-23-21 | 76ers -120 v. Raptors | Top | 109-102 | Win | 100 | 7 h 7 m | Show |
02-22-21 | Wizards +7 v. Lakers | Top | 127-124 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
02-22-21 | Oregon v. USC -3.5 | Top | 58-72 | Win | 100 | 14 h 2 m | Show |
02-21-21 | Kings v. Bucks OVER 237 | Top | 115-128 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
02-21-21 | Michigan v. Ohio State +2 | Top | 92-87 | Loss | -112 | 7 h 41 m | Show |
02-20-21 | Wizards v. Blazers -4 | Top | 118-111 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
02-20-21 | Seton Hall v. Georgetown OVER 141 | Top | 75-81 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
02-19-21 | Toledo v. Buffalo -2 | Top | 80-70 | Loss | -101 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
02-19-21 | Bulls +8.5 v. 76ers | Top | 105-112 | Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
02-18-21 | Heat v. Kings +1.5 | Top | 118-110 | Loss | -101 | 17 h 45 m | Show |
02-18-21 | Rutgers v. Michigan UNDER 136.5 | Top | 64-71 | Win | 100 | 16 h 32 m | Show |
02-17-21 | Wyoming -6 v. New Mexico | Top | 83-74 | Win | 100 | 13 h 60 m | Show |
02-17-21 | Hawks +3 v. Celtics | Top | 122-114 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
02-16-21 | Raptors v. Bucks -5.5 | Top | 124-113 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 33 m | Show |
02-16-21 | Dayton v. Rhode Island -3 | Top | 89-91 | Loss | -112 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
02-15-21 | Heat +3.5 v. Clippers | Top | 118-125 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
02-15-21 | East Tennessee State v. Chattanooga UNDER 134 | Top | 51-53 | Win | 100 | 21 h 38 m | Show |
02-14-21 | Spurs v. Hornets UNDER 228.5 | Top | 122-110 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
02-14-21 | Minnesota v. Maryland UNDER 138 | Top | 59-72 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
02-13-21 | Weber State +1 v. Montana | Top | 91-82 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
02-12-21 | Pelicans +3 v. Mavs | Top | 130-143 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
02-12-21 | St Bonaventure v. VCU -3 | Top | 64-67 | Push | 0 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
02-11-21 | Raptors v. Celtics -3.5 | Top | 106-120 | Win | 100 | 13 h 22 m | Show |