Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-15-22 | Celtics v. 76ers +3.5 | Top | 135-87 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 39 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Philadelphia 76ers +3.5 over Boston Celtics, 7:30 PM ET - This is a bad line and a clear over-reaction to the Celtics current hot streak so we will grab the value and play on Philadelphia. Boston is 10-1 SU their last eleven games and gaining ground in the Eastern Conference. At closer look though the current streak might be a little overrated. The best wins came at home over a depleted Hawks and Heat team and the Denver Nuggets. The road wins the Celtics had in that stretch came against a Nets team without Durant, Harden and Irving and versus Orlando, Detroit, New Orleans and Washington. Those four teams have a combined record of 76-155 SU. The 76ers have two straight wins including a solid win over the Cleveland Cavaliers. Philly was dealing with distracting issues during the trade deadline and now are rid of Ben Simmons in the deal for James Harden who is not expected to play tonight. Granted, the 76ers are without Seth Curry now but they were just favored by 1.5-points at home against the Suns and are now a home dog to Boston? That doesn’t add up according to our model. Philly has covered 7 straight in the series and 4 in a row at home. Embiid and company get it done tonight. |
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02-15-22 | Michigan State v. Penn State +3 | Top | 58-62 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
#606 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Penn State +3 over Michigan State, Tuesday at 6:30 PM ET - Penn State comes in off 3 straight losses and each of gone to the wire. They lost @ Wisconsin by 2 points, home vs Michigan by 1-point and @ Minnesota by 6. This team has been very solid and competitive at home with wins over Iowa, Indiana, and Rutgers along with that 1 point loss vs Michigan we stated above. The Nittany Lions have covered 6 in a row at home. This is a dangerous spot for MSU who is coming off a huge home win over Indiana and Sparty has a home date with Big 10 leading Illinois this weekend. The Spartans also beat PSU by 16 earlier this year so it might be tough for them to fully focus here with a big look ahead game on deck. They’ve already shown they aren’t great handling short term success as they are 1-5 ATS when coming off a SU win. PSU is one of the slowest paced teams in the nation (351st) and they will turn this game into a crawl which is not how Michigan State likes to play. Versus the 2 slowest paced teams in the Big 10 this year besides Penn State, MSU has been blown out @ Rutgers and played 2 close games vs Minnesota (winning by 2 & 7). Sparty has played the easiest schedule thus far in Big 10 play (PSU has played the 2nd most difficult) and vs bottom half of the league teams on the road they haven’t been overly impressive. They were destroyed @ Rutgers, won @ Maryland by 2, and won @ Northwestern by 6 after trailing by 13. PSU is a very solid defensive team (54th nationally in defensive efficiency) and they hold opponents to just 64 PPG here at home. They have great shot at the home upset here and we’ll take the points. |
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02-14-22 | Spurs +3.5 v. Bulls | Top | 109-120 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 26 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* San Antonio Spurs +3.5 over Chicago Bulls, 8:10 PM ET - We like the Spurs and the points over the short-handed Bulls are expected to be without Zach LaVine here. The Bulls are 21-8 SU at home, yet have the worst average Margin of Victory at home of all the teams that have 20 or more home wins this season. Chicago wins at home by +4.8PPG which is 9th in the NBA. A big reason why the Bulls don’t win by large margins is their lack of defense at home. Chicago ranks 21st in defensive efficiency at home allowing 1.119-points per possession. The Bulls have the best home efficiency numbers in the league at home but will be without one of their main offensive weapons in LaVine. San Antonio is 11-17 SU on the road this season but their average loss margin is -0.4PPG. The Spurs have the 7th best road defensive efficiency numbers in the NBA allowing 1.088PPP. The Spurs have two straight wins as road dogs and we expect them to keep this game close. |
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02-14-22 | Virginia v. Virginia Tech OVER 118.5 | Top | 53-62 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 0 m | Show |
#879/880 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 118.5 Points – Virginia vs Virginia Tech, Monday at 7 PM ET - This one might be slow and ugly at times, but our power ratings have this total set at 121 and we think they’ll get over this deflated number. The first meeting was 54-52 in favor of UVA which is most likely why this number dropped from the opener which was much closer to our projection. The 2 teams combined to shoot only 41% in that game and combined to make only 14 FT’s. Their points per possession averages were 0.91 and 0.95 in that first meeting in mid January. Their season averages are 1.14 and 1.08 so both fell well below those numbers. The common misnomer here as that we are not only slow paced (true) but both defenses are top notch (false). Va Tech actually ranks 14th (out of 15) in the ACC in defensive efficiency and 11th in eFG% allowed. The Cavs are nowhere near as staunch defensively as they have been in past seasons ranking 7th in the league in defensive efficiency and 9th in eFG% defense. For the season both offenses have been better than their defenses. VT ranks 19th nationally in offensive efficiency and 91st in defensive efficiency. UVA sits at 71st in offensive efficiency and 87th in defensive efficiency. The Hokie offense is clicking right now scoring more than 70 points in each of their last 6 games for an average of 77 PPG over that stretch. The Cavs have gotten to at least 63 points in 8 straight games. That may not seem like a big deal but with the total sitting where it is, the projected score of this game is VT 61, UVA 57. We like both teams to get to at least 60 here and we’ll grab the OVER. |
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02-13-22 | Wolves -5.5 v. Pacers | Top | 129-120 | Win | 100 | 5 h 41 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Minnesota Timberwolves -6.5 over Indiana Pacers, 3:10 PM ET - Let’s consider this basic analysis first. Before the trade deadline the Pacers were just a +1.5 home underdog to the Chicago Bulls. They then traded away their two leading scorers in Sabonis and LeVert along with key role player Craig and were +6.5 points at home to the Cavs in the first game after the trade. Yes, they added talented Haliburton and Hield but clearly the oddsmakers feel they will regress in the short-term. The Wolves are off back-to-back losses but had won 5 straight games prior to that with a pair of impressive double-digit wins over the Jazz and Nuggets. The Pacers are on an 0-5 ATS streak while the Wolves are 5-1 ATS their last six games coming off a double-digit loss. As a favorite the Wolves have an average +/- of +9PPG and they have covered 11 of fifteen on the road against sub .500 teams. Don’t be scared off by the number, bet Minnesota. |
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02-13-22 | Marshall v. UTEP -6 | Top | 88-79 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 10 m | Show |
#856 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UTEP -6 over Marshall, Sunday at 3 PM ET - We were on Marshall on Thursday night at home vs FIU in what we thought was a perfect setup for the Herd to pick up a win. They played a disappointing game and sent us home with a loss getting upended 72-71. That dropped Marshall to 1-10 SU in CUSA play and we expect them to be flat here going on the road a few days after losing a home game they felt they really needed to win. Speaking of the road, the Herd are 1-9 SU away from home including 0-5 on conference play. All but one of their conference losses have come by more than 10 points with an average loss margin of -15.4 PPG. UTEP is playing well winning 6 of their last 7 with their only loss coming @ North Texas, the #2 rated team in the league, by 8 on Monday. That gives UTEP nearly a full week to get ready for this game and Marshall just played on Thursday as we mentioned. The Miners will give the Marshall offense big time problems in this one. They rank 2nd in CUSA in defensive efficiency, 2nd in eFG% defense, and 1st in 3-point FG% defense. Marshall ranks near the bottom of the conference in offensive efficiency and eFG%. The UTEP defense also creates a lot of turnovers (2nd in conference) and Marshall coughs the ball up a lot (12th in the conference). On the other end the Miners shoot a lot of 3’s and they shoot them well ranking 2nd in CUSA in 3 point FG%. Marshall’s defense ranks 331st at the arc. Lastly if they need to salt this one away late, UTEP hits 77% of their FT’s as a team. This one sets up very nicely for the host. |
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02-12-22 | Clippers v. Mavs UNDER 216 | Top | 99-97 | Win | 100 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 215.5 LA Clippers @ Dallas Mavericks, 8:40 PM ET - These two teams just met the other night with the Mavericks winning 112-105 for 217 Total points. Both teams shot well above their season averages with Luke Doncic of the Mavs having a big night with 51-points on 17 of 26 shooting. Dallas made 49% of their FG attempts (season average is 45.4% 19th in NBA) while the Clippers hit 48% (Clippers 22nd in NBA at 45.4%). The pace of play obviously favored the Under which would have cashed had they not both shot it so well. The Mavericks are the 28th slowest paced team in the NBA, the Clippers are 15th. Both teams are exceptional at defending the 3-point line with the Mavs holding the 5th best 3PT% D, the Clippers are 6th. The Clippers have the 9th best defensive efficiency rating in the NBA allowing 1.093-points per possession, the Mavericks are better yet ranking 5th at 1.072PPP. The Over is 2-1 this season between these two teams but they had an abnormally hot shooting night on Thursday and barely went Over the number, played on OT game to go Over and then scored 188 in the first meeting of the season. We like UNDER in this one. |
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02-12-22 | Vanderbilt +12.5 v. Tennessee | Top | 64-73 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
#743 ASA TOP PLAY ON 9* Vanderbilt +12.5 over Tennessee, Saturday at 6 PM ET - Vandy is playing their best basketball of the season right now and they are catching Tennessee in a tough spot. The Commodores have won 3 of their last 4 games with their only loss during that stretch coming by 7 points @ Kentucky. The Vols are coming off a huge road win @ Mississippi State in a game that was much closer than the final score which was 72-63. In that win the Vols never led by more than 5 until under 1:00 minute remaining in the game and outscored the Bulldogs 11-2 in the final 3:00 minutes. They played that game without one of their best players, Nkamhoua, who was lost for the season in their game prior to playing MSU. We think that’ll take a toll on UT as we move forward. Tennessee also hosts a huge game on Tuesday with Kentucky coming to town. Good chance they don’t play at their peak here vs a team they beat 68-60 on the road earlier this season. In that game, Vandy led at half and never trailed by more than 8 points. The Commodores match up nicely here as UT takes a lot of 3’s and Vanderbilt is #1 in the SEC defending the arc allowing just 27%. In the first game they held the Vols to just 22% from deep but Tennessee made 9 more FT’s which was the difference in the game. On the other side, almost 40% of Vandy’s points come from beyond the arc (1st in the league) and UT’s defensive weakness is defending the 3 ranking 11th in the SEC. The Dores have proven they can get it done on the road with 4 true road wins this season (including @ Arkansas who is 19-5 overall and 8-3 in the SEC). They actually shoot better on the road this season from both inside and outside the arc. We think they’ll give Tennessee a real scare in this one and we’ll grab double digits. |
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02-12-22 | Samford v. East Tennessee State OVER 150 | Top | 77-73 | Push | 0 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
#683/684 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 150 Points – Samford vs East Tennessee State, Saturday at 4 PM ET - These 2 met in mid January and easily eclipsed this number with ETSU beating Samford 88-85 for 173 total points. We see this game playing out in a similar fashion. In that first meeting the 2 teams combined to shoot just over 50% which wasn’t surprising as ETSU ranks last (10th) in eFG% defense and defensive efficiency and Samford ranks 7th in eFG% defense. Samford is one of the fastest paced teams in the nation and ranks 2nd in pace in conference play. ETSU sits at 7th in the Southern Conference in pace but they’ve shown they’ll play however their opponent wants to play. The Buccaneers can play slow or fast and in this game it will be fast. The 4 fastest paced teams in the SoCon are Citadel, Samford, Western Carolina, and VMI. When those teams have faced ETSU this season their games have averaged 163 total points with only 1 of those 5 games falling below 150 and that was 148. For the season, the offenses are definitely the strength of both of these teams while their defense fall short. Both rank inside the top 150 in offensive efficiency and inside the top 132 in eFG%. Defensively they both rank outside the top 250 in defensive efficiency and outside the top 280 in eFG% defense. In addition to that, each of the teams offensive strength plays perfectly into their opponents defensive weakness. Samford ranks 46th nationally in 2-point FG% and ETSU’s defense ranks 338th defending inside the arc. ETSU ranks 36th in 3-point FG% and they are facing a Samford defense that ranks 257th defending the arc. These two have gone OVER the total in 9 of their last 10 meetings and they’ve averaged 159 total points in those 10 games. Only once in the last 10 games have these 2 combined to score less than 150 points. We go OVER the total in this one. |
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02-11-22 | Hornets v. Pistons OVER 226.5 | Top | 141-119 | Win | 100 | 7 h 13 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 226.5 Charlotte Hornets at Detroit Pistons, 7:10 PM ET - We know two constants in this matchup and that is pace and poor defense. Both teams are going to play fast which means plenty of possessions to get an Over here. Charlotte is the 2nd fastest paced team in the NBA at 100.4 possessions per game, Detroit is 12th at 98.8. Defense, or lack of defense is the other trait both teams share. The Hornets rank 24th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.130-points per possession, the Pistons rank 26th allowing 1.132PPP. We are getting tremendous value here with Charlotte’s recent offense struggles but the main reason they haven’t scored is the defenses they’ve faced. In 6 of their last seven games they’ve faced a team with a top 13 defensive efficiency rating. It will become much easier to score here against this Pistons D that is giving up 112.3PPG. Charlotte is the 9th best 3-point shooting team in the NBA, Detroit is 30th in defending the 3. We get a marginal Total set by the oddsmakers and the value clearly lies with the OVER! |
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02-11-22 | Detroit v. Youngstown State -115 | Top | 69-82 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
#884 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Youngstown State -115 over Detroit, Friday at 7 PM ET - What a tough spot this is for Detroit. It’s the Titans 4th road game in 8 days. They played last Friday @ Wright St (Ohio), Saturday @ Northern Kentucky, Wednesday @ Robert Morris (Pennsylvania), and now tonight back in Ohio facing Youngstown St. They were swamped by 21 points in their game last Friday but bounced back with 2 road wins & covers. We feel they are bit overvalued right now as we have YSU as a 4 point favorite with our power ratings. Youngstown is in a much better situation playing their 2nd straight home game after beating the top team in the conference, Oakland, here on Wednesday. The 3 top teams in the Horizon and the only 3 ranked inside the top 100 are Oakland, Cleveland State, and Wright State. The Penguins have proven they can get it done at home beating both Oakland and Wright State while losing to CSU in OT. Despite their recent 2 road wins, Detroit is still just 5-11 on the road this year with a -5 PPG differential. We like how YSU matches up here. Detroit thrives on creating TO’s and they take more 3’s than anyone in the conference. Youngstown ranks 3rd in the Horizon defending the arc allowing just 32% and the are they only turn the ball over 17% of the time (2nd least in the league). The Penguins have beaten the top teams at home and now we get them at a line where they just have to win vs a tired, road weary Detroit team. Lay it. |
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02-10-22 | Bucks v. Suns -3 | Top | 107-131 | Win | 100 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns -3 over Milwaukee Bucks, 10 PM ET - The Suns are 44-10 SU on the season and clearly playing at another level. Milwaukee is turning the corner and moved to 2nd place in the Eastern Conference. We don’t use “revenge” often in the NBA but that’s the case tonight as the Suns will be at another level emotionally tonight after losing to the Bucks in the Finals last year. The Bucks do have a positive road differential of +3.6PPG on the season but the Suns are 22-5 SU at home this season with the second-best margin of victory at +8.3PPG. Both teams are highly rated in terms of offense, but the difference tonight will be the Suns defense that ranks 4th best in the league in efficiency compared to the Bucks who rank 15th in points allowed per game this season. The energy and home crowd will carry the Suns to a double-digit win here. |
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02-10-22 | Florida International v. Marshall -4.5 | Top | 72-71 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 29 m | Show |
#764 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Marshall -4.5 over Florida International, Thursday at 7 PM ET - These 2 played just a few weeks ago and Marshall was favored by -2.5 / -3 on the road in that one. Now we’re getting them at home -4.5 / -5. Great value here. A main reason for the low number is Marshall’s 1-9 CUSA record. Let’s keep in mind the Herd have played the #1 strength of schedule in conference play and #117 overall – the most difficult of any CUSA team. FIU, on the other hand, has played the #310 SOS which is the easiest in CUSA and despite that they are just 3-8 in conference play. In their first meeting FIU pulled off a 4 point win but now Marshall gets them at home where they play much better. In fact, Marshall’s most recent home game was a win over UAB, the top team in the conference. They also played North Texas and MTSU (2 of the top teams in the league) to the wire here before losing tight games. The Herd have played 5 conference home games and 4 of those were vs teams ranked in the top half of CUSA. FIU is 0-8 SU on the road this year losing by an average of 11 PPG while shooting only 37%. They’ve lost 16 straight road games dating back to last season. The Panthers are in a tough schedule spot having played Saturday & Monday already now traveling just a few days later. Marshall has been off since Saturday. FIU has never won @ Marshall. They are 0-7 SU with every loss coming by at least 9 points. We’ll take Marshall here. |
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02-09-22 | Tennessee v. Mississippi State +1.5 | Top | 72-63 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 60 m | Show |
#746 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Mississippi State +1.5 over Tennessee, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - Our power ratings have MSU as the favorite in this game so we’re taking the points with the home team. The Bulldogs are an impressive 12-1 SU at home this season where they shoot 50% as a team with an average winning margin of +16 PPG. They are a perfect 5-0 SU at home in SEC play while going 0-5 SU on the road for the largest home/road dichotomy in the league. They are coming off a road loss @ red hot Arkansas (8 straight wins) but played the Razors to the wire (down by 2 with 1:00 minute remaining) before losing. Tennessee is coming off a blowout road win over South Carolina (3rd lowest rated team in the SEC) but the Vols still have a losing road record at 3-4 SU. Their 3 road wins have come vs teams that are currently rated 80th or lower and they just starting forward Nkamhoua (9 PPG / 6 RPG) to a season ending ankle injury vs South Carolina over the weekend. UT’s overall defensive numbers are really high but since getting into SEC play they’ve fallen off drastically. In SEC games only the Vols defense ranks 11th in eFG% allowed, 12th in 3-point % allowed, and 10th in 2-point % allowed. That’s alarming for a team that hangs their hat on defense. MSU ranks 3rd in the SEC in offensive efficiency so they should have plenty of success in this one. Tennessee has just 2 wins in conference play vs top 8 in the league (LSU & Florida both at home), all other wins come vs bottom of the league. They should not be favored in this one and we side with the home dog. |
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02-09-22 | Bulls -120 v. Hornets | Top | 121-109 | Win | 100 | 7 h 21 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Chicago Bulls Money Line -120 over Charlotte Hornets, 7:40 PM ET - LaMelo Ball has made a big splash in the NBA this season and he’s been rewarded with an All-Star appearance as an alternate. He is dynamic offensively, but arguably the worst defender in the NBA. Charlotte will need to make a correction on the defensive end of the court to really ascend to the next level. The Hornets rank 28th in points allowed per game allowing over 114PPG, allow opponents to make 46.3% of their field goal attempts (20th) and 35.9% of their 3-point attempts (23rd). The Bulls aren’t great defensively, but they are better than the Hornets and rate slightly stronger offensively. Chicago is 5th in offensive efficiency (Hornets (12th) rank 8th in scoring, 1st in FG% and 3rd in 3-point shooting percentage. Charlotte has lost 5 straight game and we don’t see them correcting here against the Bulls who are also off two straight losses to the Suns and 76ers. The Bulls are 22-12 ATS as a favorite and we trust their Big 3 of LaVine, DeRozan and Vucevic much more than the Hornets lineup, especially without Hayward. In the last meeting the Bulls led by as many as 23-points and eventually won by 14. We expect similar results tonight. |
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02-08-22 | Rockets v. Pelicans UNDER 228.5 | Top | 97-110 | Win | 100 | 10 h 55 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 228.5 Houston Rockets @ New Orleans Pelicans, 8:10 PM ET - These two teams just met the other night and combined for 227 total points. The points for both teams came via great shooting by both teams. The Pelicans hit 53% from the field overall, 41% from beyond the arc (12-29) and made 26 free throws. The Rockets shot above their season averages too with 48% overall and 36% from the 3-point line. To put these numbers into perspective, these two teams rank in the bottom 10 of the league in both FG% and 3-point FG%. Watch for a regression here by both teams as they trend back to the “norm” in this rematch. Houston’s road games average 224 total points, New Orleans home games average 217PPG. The longterm history between these two teams favors the Under with 19 of the last 27 meetings in the Big Easy staying below the total. Bet UNDER here. |
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02-08-22 | Marquette +7 v. Connecticut | Top | 72-80 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
#605 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Marquette +7 over UConn, Tuesday at 6:30 PM ET - Marquette is no doubt the hottest team in the Big East winning 8 of their last 9 with their only loss during that stretch by just 2 points @ Providence who is 10-1 in the Big East and 20-2 overall. The Golden Eagles started this run with a massacre of that same Providence team winning by 30+ points at home giving the Friars their only conference loss this season. Not only did they top the Friars, but Marquette has also beaten Villanova (twice), Seton Hall (twice), and Xavier during this run. We feel UConn is a bit overvalued right now. Half of their Big East wins have been by 8 points or less and their 3 other conference wins were vs Butler (twice) and Georgetown, 2 worst teams in the league. They’ve played the easiest schedule in conference play and they only team they’ve beaten that ranks in the top half of the conference is this Marquette team. They beat the Golden Eagles by 8 on the road when Marquette was in the midst of a 4 game losing streak back in December. Marquette also played that game without one of their top players, Daryl Morsell (13.5 PPG), who is also their top perimeter defender. Even with Morsell out and Marquette in a bit of a slump in mid December, this was still a very close game throughout. The Eagles are now playing at another level as we discussed. UConn is a poor 3-point defensive team (9th in the Big East) while Marquette is the #1 three point shooting team in the conference hitting nearly 40% in league play. The Eagles have 4 regulars that shoot at least 35% from deep. Marquette is also the #1 defense in conference play in terms of efficiency, eFG% allowed, and 3-point % allowed. We give them a great shot to win here and getting 6 points gives us a great cushion. |
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02-07-22 | Kansas v. Texas +1 | Top | 76-79 | Win | 100 | 24 h 32 m | Show |
#908 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas -1 over Kansas, Monday at 9 PM ET - Any time a top 10 rated team is an underdog it makes us take a look. Most will automatically take the top rated dog but we often look at the favored team depending on the match up. There is a reason that team is favored vs a highly ranked opponent. Texas is very talented team that plays great defense (9th nationally in defensive efficiency & #1 in the country allowing 55 PPG) and they like to take fast paced teams out of their comfort zone by slowing the pace. That’s not a good match up for Kansas who loves to get up and down the court but will be locked into a half court game here with the Horns (347th in tempo). The team most comparable to the Longhorns in the Big 12 would be Texas Tech. The Red Raiders also play great defense yet like a slow tempo game. Tech gave Kansas all kinds of problems in their 2 meetings beating the Jayhawks by 8 at home and losing on the road in double OT. Texas has won 4 of their last 5 with their only loss during that run coming @ Texas Tech. They just walloped a good Iowa State team by 22 points here on Saturday. They are 14-1 at home with a point margin of +21 per game. They catch Kansas off a huge home win over Baylor on Saturday and this will be the first time this season the Jayhawks are facing one of the top 4 teams in the Big 12 on the road. Two of KU’s conference road games were down to the wire where they came from a 2nd half deficit to top KSU and Oklahoma each by just 3 points – both teams ranked far lower than Texas. The Horns match up very well here with KU as they have length and defend the interior very well which is where the Jayhawks like to operate. Texas gets the win at home. |
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02-07-22 | Raptors v. Hornets OVER 224 | Top | 116-101 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 32 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 224 Toronto Raptors @ Charlotte Hornets, 7:10 PM ET - We have a great play for you on Monday with the Over in this contest. This line is lower than it should be based on Charlotte's recent offensive struggles and lower scoring outputs. The Hornets have put up 90, 107, 101 and 86 points in their last four games. BUT those numbers come against Miami, Cleveland, Boston and the Clippers who ALL rank top 8 in the league in defensive efficiency. Toronto ranks 17th in DEFF, allow 46% shooting by opponents (18th) and 35.7% 3-point shooting by foes (21st). Charlotte is going to find their shooting groove here with the 2nd highest scoring offense in the NBA at nearly 114PPG and the 7th best 3-point shooting offense. Toronto is going to score here too against a Hornets defense that is 28th in points allowed per game (114.2PPG), 20th in FG% defense and 23rd in 3-point percentage D. Over the course of their last five games the Raptors have the 10th most efficient offense in the league at 1.162-points per possession. These two teams met in late January and produced 238 total points. More of the same tonight! |
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02-06-22 | Hawks v. Mavs OVER 221 | Top | 94-103 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 46 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 221 Atlanta Hawks @ Dallas Mavericks, 6:10 PM ET - This shapes up to be a high scoring affair with plenty of points from both teams. The Mavs were on a strong UNDER streak in mid-January with 8 straight games staying below the Total but recently they’ve gone OVER in 5 of six. Dallas has the 4th best offensive efficiency rating in the NBA over the last five game span at 1.222-points per possession. On the season they have a top 5 defensive efficiency rating but in their last five games they’ve regressed on that end of the court to 11th allowing 1.123PPP. The Mavs recently put up 132 points against the Pacers and Blazers and they shouldn’t have a problem scoring here against a Hawks defense that is one of the worst in the league. Atlanta is 27th in DEFF, 24th in points allowed per game, 23rd and 25th in overall FG% defense and 3-point% defense. What Atlanta does to well is score points. The Hawks are 7th in scoring, 6th in shooting and 1st in 3-point percentage offensively. With current injuries to both teams we are projecting small ball lineups for both teams which should lead to a faster tempo and an up-and-down game. Four of the last six meetings have resulting in 221 or more points. The bet here is OVER. |
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02-06-22 | Nevada v. San Diego State -12.5 | Top | 63-65 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 5 m | Show |
#856 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Diego State -12 over Nevada, Sunday at 4 PM ET - SDSU has been money coming off a loss this season. They’ve also been money at home and we get both here. The Aztecs lost 53-52 @ Colorado State on Friday after making a furious comeback late. They were down 12 with just over 2 minutes remaining and took the lead with 14 seconds remaining at CSU, a very tough place to play. Now they are back home where they are 10-1 on the season with a point differential of +14 per game. In conference play their 3 home wins have come by margins of 30, 25, and 25 points and two of those were bounce back games off a loss. Nevada will be on the road for their 3rd game in just 6 days. The Wolfpack lost Tuesday @ UNLV by 11, Friday @ Fresno by 17 and they are now back at it on the road less than 48 hours later. They are just 1-6 SU on the road this year with their only win coming @ Air Force, the 2nd lowest rated team in the Mountain West. Nevada has been without 2 of their top players, Sherfield and Washington, the last few games due to injury and there is a good chance they won’t be back here. Their offense has been brutal during their current 4 game losing streak scoring 66, 49, 58, and 56 points in those games. We don’t anticipate it getting any better here facing a San Diego State defense that ranks 2nd nationally in efficiency and 4th in eFG% allowed. The Aztecs have not allowed a team to score more than 55 points in any of their conference home games. Offensively they’ve scored at least 72 points in 4 of their last 5 home games and most likely won’t need to get to that number to cover this game. We like San Diego State to roll up a big win. |
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02-05-22 | Heat v. Hornets UNDER 227.5 | Top | 104-86 | Win | 100 | 8 h 1 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 227.5 Miami Heat vs Charlotte Hornets, 7:10 PM ET - Miami is the alpha team in this matchup, and they’ll dictate tempo in Charlotte. The Heat are the 2nd slowest paced team in the NBA, behind only the Knicks when it comes to possessions per game. Charlotte is the 2nd fastest for the season but in their last five games they’ve slowed, and their offensive efficiency has dipped. Miami is 5th in points allowed per game, giving up just 104.8PPG behind the 8th best field goal percentage defense. The Heat are 8th in defensive efficiency allowing1.087-points per possession. At first glance, the Heat have played OVER in 7 of their last eight games but 7 of those eight games finished with less than 226 points (in regulation). Miami just played the Spurs, a very similar team to the Hornets and that game finished with 207 total points. Charlotte has been a high scoring team all season long, but they haven’t topped 220 total points in three straight games and 7 of their last ten. These teams have met once this season and that game finished with 213 total points. We like UNDER here. |
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02-05-22 | Oregon State v. Colorado -9 | Top | 63-86 | Win | 100 | 18 h 4 m | Show |
#728 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Colorado -9 over Oregon State, Saturday at 6 PM ET - CU is coming off a home loss and we really like this spot for the Buffs. They lost here vs a red hot Oregon team (won 8 of last 9) on Thursday night and this becomes a must win with 3 of their next 4 games on the road. The Buffs are 5-7 in league play but they’ve played the toughest strength of schedule in Pac 12 play to date. They do have 4 homes losses this year but they are vs the 3 of the 4 highest rated teams in the conference (UCLA, USC, Oregon) along with Tennessee who is one of the best teams in the country. Oregon State is rated as the worst team in the Pac 12. They are 3-16 overall on the season and just 1-8 in conference play. Their wins this year have come vs Portland State (274th ranked team), Nicholls State (217th ranked team), and Utah (2-11 record in the Pac 12 ahead of only Oregon St). On the road this team is 0-7 SU and 1-6 ATS. They lost @ Utah who is 2-11 in the conference by 25 points on Thursday night. The Beavers are getting outscored by an average of 14 PPG on the road and shooting only 39%. On top of all that, this is the toughest back to back in the conference and has been known as such for a long time. Playing in altitude @ Utah followed up by playing in altitude again @ Colorado 2 days later is brutal. OSU has the worst defensive efficiency in Pac 12 play this season and they are also last in eFG% defense. And they foul a lot which is good for Colorado who shoots 74% from the FT line as a team. 7 of OSU’s 8 conference losses have come by double digits and this has the makings of a blow out. Take the Buffs at home. |
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02-04-22 | San Diego State v. Colorado State -3 | Top | 57-58 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 0 m | Show |
#892 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Colorado State -3 over San Diego State, Friday at 9 PM ET - CSU was 16-1 entering last weekend and they proceeded to lose 2 straight vs UNLV and in OT @ Wyoming. We like them to bounce back at home in Moby Arena where they have won 27 of their last 30 games! It can be tough for teams to come into high altitude and play well which is one of the many reasons that CSU has such a strong home court. San Diego State attempted was in a similar situation last week traveling to play Utah State in altitude and they lost by 18. SDSU then went home and blasted New Mexico so they are coming off a win. The Rams are fantastic offensive team ranking 18th in offensive efficiency nationally, 7th in eFG%, 18th in 3-point %, and 12th in 2-point %. They also make 79% of their free throws. San Diego State really struggles on offense at times. Especially on the road where they are averaging just 59 PPG on 37% shooting. They have played just 4 true road games and they are 1-3 SU in those games. This is a big time revenger for CSU after losing by 30 @ San Diego State one month ago. The normally sharp shooting Rams hit just 28% of their shots in that game and only 15% of their 3’s. SDSU is very good defensively but we look for a much better offensive performance from Colorado State who averages 83 PPG at home while shooting 52% overall and 40% from deep. The Aztecs will have trouble keeping up offensively here and we side with Colorado State to win and cover this short number at home. |
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02-04-22 | Hawks v. Raptors UNDER 219 | Top | 114-125 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 20 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 219 Atlanta Hawks @ Toronto Raptors, 7:40 PM ET - We are going contrarian here, grabbing the extra value with UNDER in this contest. This line opened 215.5 and has since moved to the current number of 219 giving us extra value. Not only that, these same two teams just met the other night in Atlanta and the O/U was 212.5. Both teams are coming off big emotional wins last night as the Raptors beat the Bulls in OT while the Hawks defeated the Suns at home. When playing the second night of a back-to-back these two teams average right around 215 total points per game and combined, they are 10-8 to the Under. These two teams rank 19th and 28th in pace of play so they prefer the slower tempo to begin with but given the circumstances this game should be slower yet. The Canadian government is not allowing fans at games, yet which makes this a dead environment and lacking energy for either team to feed off. Toronto’s home games this season have averaged 215 total points per game which is the 3rd lowest number in the NBA. Bet UNDER. |
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02-03-22 | Washington v. California -2 | Top | 84-63 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
#854 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* California -2 over Washington, Thursday at 11 PM ET - Cal has lost 8 straight games and now they are a favorite in this one. We actually have the Bears power rated as a 4.5 points favorite here so we like the value with the team coming off a big stretch of losses. They have a misleading 2-9 record in Pac 12 play as over half of those losses (5) have come vs the top 3 teams in the conference (UCLA, Arizona, and USC). They have lost 3 straight home games, however those were again vs the top teams in the Pac 12 (UCLA, Arizona, and USC). Prior to that the Bears had won 9 straight home games. Washington is 6-3 in conference play but they’ve played one of the easiest schedules in league play having played Arizona just once and they have not faced USC or UCLA. The Huskies do have 2 conference road wins but those came vs Oregon State and Utah, the 2 lowest rated teams in the league. Their other 3 conference road games resulted in losses of 28, 16, and 14 points. UW just struggled big time with Utah at home over the weekend winning in double OT. At this number the oddsmakers are pretty much asking Washington to win on the road and they simply don’t shoot the ball well enough to be trusted here. They rank 312th or lower nationally in eFG%, 2 point FG%, and 3 point FG%. This has been a home team series with the host winning 9 of the last 10 outright and covering 7 in a row. Cal views this match up as a great chance to end their losing streak and they’ll bring a great effort at home tonight. Lay the small number. |
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02-03-22 | Heat v. Spurs OVER 221 | Top | 112-95 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 51 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 220.5 Miami Heat vs San Antonio Spurs, 8:40 PM ET - These two teams go about scoring their points in different manners. The Spurs score by getting out in transition and forcing tempo with the 5th fastest paced offense in the NBA. San Antonio is 9th in scoring this season at 111.4PPG, 13.4 of those points come via the fast break which is 8th highest in the NBA. They are also the 7th most efficient team in the NBA when it comes to scoring on the break. Miami on the other hand prefers to play slow, ranking next to last in the league when it comes to pace of play. But the Heat are the 5th most efficient offense in the league at 1.127-points per possession. The Heat are the 2nd best 3-point shooting team in the NBA at 37.5% and the Spurs have a tough time defending the 3-pointer with the 19th ranked 3PT% defense. San Antonio ranks 9th in overall FG% and 13th in 3PT% and the Heat rank 18th in 3PT% defense. Miami is coming off 3 straight lackluster offensive performances and now get a chance to put up big offensive numbers against a Spurs defense that is 20th in efficiency that has given up 115 or more points in 7 of their last nine games. Get your play in on the OVER. |
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02-02-22 | Blazers v. Lakers -3.5 | Top | 94-99 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* LA Lakers -3.5 over Portland Trailblazers, 10:40 PM ET - Man, I hate betting on the Lakers! LA is obviously a very popular and public team which means they more than likely are over-priced most nights. Since LeBron joined the Lakers, they are a money-burning 136-162-6 ATS (45.6%) which is the second worst spread record in the NBA since 2018. Portland has been horrible on the road this season though with a 7-17 SU record and the 4th worst average loss margin of -8.9PPG. They rank 25th in offensive efficiency on the road and last in road defensive efficiency. The Lakers have played a large portion of the season without Anthony Davis, so their home statistics are somewhat misleading. In games he’s played at home they are 9-7 SU. Yes, the Lakers will be without James here, but the Blazers continue to play and lose without their best player Lilliard. LA has covered 4 straight when coming off a spread loss and recently beat the Blazers by 33 at home. We like Los Angeles to get a solid home win and cover on Wednesday. |
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02-02-22 | Purdue v. Minnesota +10.5 | Top | 88-73 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
#672 ASA TOP PLAY ON 9* Minnesota +10.5 over Purdue, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - This line is off. Our power ratings have Purdue -8.5. For comparison’s sake, Minnesota was just +11 @ Wisconsin on Sunday and now they are getting basically the same number at home vs Purdue. The Boilers are in a tough spot coming off an important 81-78 home win vs Ohio State on Sunday. They hit a tough 3-point shot at the buzzer to get that win. Purdue plays another important game at home on Saturday vs Michigan. In the meantime they are @ Minnesota who sits at 2-7 in Big 10 play and this sets up as a perfect spot for a Boilermaker letdown. They have played just 5 true road games on the year and they have a 3-2 record in those games with none of their wins coming by more than 10 points (losses @ Rutgers and @ Indiana). They average 84 PPG overall this season but that drops by 7 points when they have played on the road. Purdue’s road point margin is just +4 per game. The Gophers are finally back to full strength after their Covid slow down. They were missing key players on and off over the last few weeks but had everyone back for the first time in awhile in their game @ Wisconsin on Saturday, including big man Eric Curry who hadn’t played since January 12th. They gave the Badgers all they could handle in a 66-60 loss – game was tied 60-60 with 2:20 remaining. Minnesota is a bit undervalued in our opinion and they’ve been a very competitive team despite their 7 losses. Only 1 of those losses came by more than 13 points. Their average point margin in Big 10 play is -6.5 points per game and we think they keep this one close. |
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02-02-22 | St. Louis v. George Mason +2 | Top | 92-90 | Push | 0 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
#680 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* George Mason +2 over St Louis, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - We were on George Mason one week ago today as a home dog vs St Bonnies and picked up a nice win with the Colonials coming out on top 75-66. We’re getting the underrated GM team at home as a dog again and we’re jumping on them vs St Louis. They are playing really good basketball right now winning 7 of their last 9 games with their lone losses coming by 1 point @ George Washington, a game Mason played without their leading scorer Oduro, and @ Kansas by just 9 points. GM is a very good shooting team ranking 14th nationally in eFG% and 15th in 2-point FG%. They are tough to guard with 4 players averaging double digit points including 3 key transfers from Colorado, Tennessee, and Morehead State. St Louis is 5-2 in A10 play but they’ve faced the easiest schedule in the conference. The Billikens have played ONE team on the road that ranks in the top 7 in the conference and that was a loss @ Dayton. SLU has historically struggled on the road with a 2-3 record this season and they are 13-28 in conference road games under head coach Travis Ford. They are coming off a rare road win on Saturday vs Duquesne, one of the two worst teams in the conference, and they are now on the road for the 2nd straight game. George Mason is 8-1 at home this season with a +13 PPG margin and they are also 6-1 ATS as a dog this season. We like the Colonials to get it done again at home vs SLU. |
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02-01-22 | Nuggets v. Wolves -4 | Top | 115-130 | Win | 100 | 7 h 16 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Minnesota Timberwolves -5 over Denver Nuggets, 8:10 PM ET - We like the home team to prevail by double-digits in this matchup and will back the Wolves here. Let’s get this out of the way first. The Nuggets are playing lights-out right now with 5 straight wins and 8 of their last ten. We do like they are coming off a blowout win of the World Champion Milwaukee Bucks and may letdown here, especially with a potential look-ahead with the Jazz. The Nuggets have won 4 straight on the road but other than the Bucks they won at New Orleans, at Brooklyn who played without the Big 3 and at Detroit. In contrast, let’s look at the Wolves' most recent home games. They beat the Jazz by 20, the Nets by 11 with Irving and Harden and the Warriors by 20. Minnesota is 6-1 SU their last seven at home with all six wins coming by 6 or more points. The Nuggets are a respectable 15-12 SU on the road this season but only 6 of those wins came against teams with a winning record. That ties into the Nuggets 8-18 ATS record in their last twenty-six road games versus a team with a winning home record. We like the Wolves by 10+ |
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02-01-22 | South Carolina v. Mississippi State -7.5 | Top | 64-78 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
#622 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Mississippi State -8 over South Carolina, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Bad spot and bad match up for South Carolina. They are catching MSU coming off 2 road losses vs 2 of the top teams in the nation. The Bulldogs lost @ Kentucky last Tuesday and took the Cats to OT on the road. Then they traveled to Texas Tech and they were out of gas both physically and emotionally after their Kentucky loss. Noticed it very early in the game and Tech rolled up an easy win. Now back at home where MSU is 4-0 in SEC play (11-1 overall) winning by an average of 12.5 points per game in league play. They have a +16 points per game margin in all 12 home games with 9 of their 11 wins coming by double digits. South Carolina is on the road for the 2nd time in 4 days after upsetting Texas A&M on Saturday. In SEC play the Gamecocks have a points per possession margin of -0.4 and MSU is +0.5 in that category. SC ranks 13th in the SEC (league games) in offensive efficiency, 13th in eFG%, and 13th in TO margin where they cough it up a whopping 23% of the time. They are also a poor defensive rebounding team (308th nationally) and MSU is one of the better offensive rebounding teams in the country. Those 2 things alone (TO’s and rebounding) should lead to a bunch of extra possessions for the home team. Since South Carolina is a poor shooting team, they rely on their defense to create TO’s which turn into easy baskets. That’ll be tough here vs the Bulldogs who are #1 in the conference in TO rate giving it away just 16% of the time. The Gamecocks are aggressive defensively thus they foul A LOT. They foul more than any other team in the conference and their opponents % of points from the FT line is nearly 25% which is the 7th most in the entire nation. MSU is a solid FT shooting team at 72% while South Carolina has hit just 59% of their FT’s in conference play. Mississippi State by double digits. |
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01-31-22 | TCU v. Oklahoma UNDER 128 | Top | 72-63 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
#897/898 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 128 Points – Oklahoma vs TCU, Monday at 9 PM ET - These two met a few weeks ago and totaled just 117 points and that was including OVERTIME! At the end of regulation the score was 50-50. Both teams play a slow tempo and their defenses are superior to their offenses. They both rank inside the top 30 nationally in defensive efficiency and TCU is the #1 defense in the conference in Big 12 games. Both turn the ball over A LOT which wastes offensive possessions. In their first meeting OU had 20 turnovers and TCU had 19 which helped contribute to the low scoring game. Neither takes many 3-point shots (7th and 9th in the conference in % of points scored from deep) and neither is all that great at hitting them when they do take them (8th & 9th in 3 point % in league play, both under 30%). TCU doesn’t get to the FT line very often and when they do they are one of the worst at converting at the stripe (65% overall and just 58% in conference play). On the other end of the court, we don’t expect Oklahoma to get many looks from the FT line as TCU is very good at not fouling with just 13% of opponents points coming from the stripe (best in the Big 12). Both teams are coming off higher scoring games vs fast paced, high scoring teams, which sets this one up nicely (TCU vs LSU and Oklahoma vs Auburn). This will be a grinder and we like the UNDER. |
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01-31-22 | Blazers -3.5 v. Thunder | Top | 81-98 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 1 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Portland Trailblazers -3.5 over Oklahoma City Thunder, 8:10 PM ET - This is one of those “plug your nose” bets as we are backing a losing team as a road favorite. We will though for several reasons including going against a Thunder team that is 14-34 SU on the season and a team without their best player. The Thunder have the 4th worst overall point differential in the NBA at minus -7.2PPG and lose at home by an average of -4.3PPG. OKC is better than the Blazers statistically on the defensive end of the court but are much worst offensively. The Blazers are 16th in offensive efficiency ratings and are the 7th best 3-point shooting team in the NBA. The Thunder rank 30th in points, FG% shooting and 3-point% shooting with the worst offensive efficiency numbers at 1.025-points per possession. Scoring will be even tougher tonight without their best players Shai Gilgeous-Alexander who is averaging 24.4 points, 7.1 assists and 5.5 rebounds in wins this season. The Thunder haven’t won this season without SGA in the lineup and stand 0-5 SU on the year. In those five losses the Thunder have been beaten by 12, 6, 73, 18 and 9 points. Going back further we find the Thunder are a miserable 6-36 SU without Alexander over the past two full seasons. OKC has lost 12 of their last thirteen. Portland is on a 5-0 spread run their last five games when coming off a loss of 10 or more points. The bet here is backing Portland. |
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01-30-22 | Mavs v. Magic UNDER 211.5 | Top | 108-110 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 43 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 211.5 Dallas Mavericks @ Orlando Magic, 7:10 PM ET - We are getting some extra value here after the Mavs put up over 130 points offensively in two straight games. Dallas shot extremely well in big wins over the Pacers and Blazers by hitting over 53% in both games which is drastically higher than their season average of 45.2% (19th). It also helps that the Pacers and Blazers are two of the worst defensive efficiency teams in the NBA. Orlando isn’t great by any means, but they do rank 18th in opponents FG% and 21st in defensive efficiency ratings. The Magic will have a tough time scoring themselves with the 28th ranked scoring offense facing a Mavs defense that allows just 103.PPG which is 3rd best in the NBA. Dallas is coming off a game last night and the dominant team in this setting so they’ll dictate the pace of play which will be slow. The Mavs rank 29th in the league in tempo or possessions per game. When playing the second night of a back-to-back the Mavs are 8-1 to the Under and those games have averaged 205.2PPG. These two teams met a few weeks back and combined for 200 total points. More of the same today. Bet under! |
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01-30-22 | Blazers v. Bulls -5 | Top | 116-130 | Win | 100 | 4 h 22 m | Show |
ASA top play on 9* Chicago Bulls -5 over Portland Trailblazers, 3:40 PM ET - We like the situation to play an elite team in the NBA off a disappointing loss, versus a bad team off a win. The Bulls are coming off a loss in San Antonio and have been solid at home when coming off a beat with a 6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS record. Portland defeated the Rockets in their most recent game and have struggled in this situation with a 3-8 SU/ATS record when coming off a win and on the road. Portland is 7-15 SU away this year with the 4th worst point differential in the league at minus -8.4PPG. The Blazers have the 29th ranked road defensive efficiency and 22nd offensive efficiency numbers. Chicago is 17-6 SU at home with the 8th best average MOV at +4.7PPG. The Bulls were recently a -4-point home favorite over the Raptors who are playing much better than the Blazers and now this line is only a 1.5-points higher? |
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01-30-22 | Indiana State v. Bradley -7.5 | Top | 52-67 | Win | 100 | 21 h 23 m | Show |
#844 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Bradley -7.5 over Indiana State, Sunday at 2 PM ET - Bradley is one of the hottest teams in the MVC winning 5 of their last 6. Their only loss during that stretch was @ Illinois State, a game Bradley led by 20 points late in the first half. Prior to this 6 game stretch, the Braves faced the 2 best teams in the conference, Loyola & Missouri State, and played very well. They lost those games by 2 points vs Mizzou State and in OT @ Loyola, a game they led by 16 in the 2nd half. So this team has been playing outstanding basketball over their last 7 games. Prior to that, they took on this Indiana State team on the road and lost by 5. The Braves were favored by -3.5 on the road in that one and now we’re getting them at -7 (as of this writing) so value on Bradley. In that 5 points loss the more physical Braves dominated the glass (+13) including 14 offensive rebounds. That led to 13 more FG attempts but they simply shot poorly in the loss. We expect them to handle ISU on the glass again here and if they shoot close to the 47% they average at home this should be an easy win. Indiana State is one of the youngest teams in the nation (3 freshmen starting) so it’s understandable why they are just 1-6 SU on the road this season. The Sycamores are also coming off a huge upset at home beating Missouri State earlier this week. They caught Mizzou St off a huge win of their own as they beat Loyola last weekend so it was definitely a letdown spot for the Bears. We like the red hot Braves in this revenge spot. |
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01-29-22 | Wizards +5.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 95-115 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 14 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Washington Wizards +5.5 over Memphis Grizzlies, 8:10 PM ET - The Grizzlies are coming off a big game last night versus the Jazz and are ripe for a letdown. Memphis is playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, 3rd in four nights and 7th in thirteen days. Washington meanwhile has been off since the 25th and will come into this game well rested. The Wizards are getting healthy with Dinwiddie, Beal, Bryant and Hachimura all back in the lineup. Washington is coming off an embarrassing home loss to the Clippers (lost by 1-point after leading by 35-points) the last time out and will be highly motivated here. Memphis is 5-4 SU when playing without rest, but their average margin of victory is minus -1.7PPG. The Wiz are a respectable 10-13 SU away from home on the season and not only do we like them to cover here, but we also won’t be surprised if they win outright. |
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01-29-22 | Middle Tennessee v. Western Kentucky -5 | Top | 93-85 | Loss | -108 | 19 h 14 m | Show |
#658 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Western Kentucky -5 over Middle Tennessee State, Saturday at 3 PM ET - This is a huge home game for WKY. They are 2-5 on conference play and have lost 4 straight games but they are much better than their record. The Hilltoppers have played one of the toughest schedules in CUSA play so far having already faced the 3 highest rated teams in the league (UAB, North Texas, and La Tech). They were very competitive in all 3 of those losses getting topped by 1, 3, and 5 points. The most recent coming at home on Wednesday vs UAB the best team in the conference. WKY lost that game 68-65 and made only 4 out of 17 three pointers (24%) but still had the game tied with under 10 seconds to go when UAB made a 3 at the buzzer. MTSU, on the other hand, has played the easiest schedule in CUSA play and they have a 4-2 record. Their last 3 games were vs FIU, Southern Miss, and Marshall, 3 of the 4 lowest rated teams in the league. They struggled big time @ Marshall (0-7 CUSA record) on Thursday night squeaking by with a 2 point win. The Blue Raiders trailed for most of the game but made 2 FT’s in the final seconds to win. MTSU was 0-6 SU on the road entering that game vs Marshall and they are now playing their 2nd road game in 3 days. They are a very poor 3-point shooting game (330th nationally) and they rely on getting to the FT line more than most teams. Problem here is Western Kentucky fouls as little as anyone in the nation allowing just 10.8% of opponents points to come from the stripe (lowest percentage in the country). The Hilltoppers are the much better offensive team ranking 3rd in CUSA (conference games) in eFG%, 3rd in 3 point %, and 4th in 2 point %. The are also the much bigger team, the more experience team, and they create bunches of TO’s (best in CUSA) which will make it difficult for an MTSU team that turns the ball over a lot. WKY is the better team despite their CUSA record and they are backed into a corner in a must win spot. We’ll lay it. |
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01-28-22 | Bulls +1.5 v. Spurs | Top | 122-131 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 14 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Chicago Bulls +1.5 over San Antonio Spurs, 8:40 PM ET - We successfully played against the Spurs the other night with part of our analysis touching on scheduling and fatigue being a factor for San Antonio. It showed late in the game and the Grizzlies took advantage with a cover. This isn’t a back to back for the Spurs but this will be their 9th game in sixteen days. The Bulls are 30-17 on the season and sit second in the East behind the Heat. Chicago went through a funk recently with a 4-6 SU record their last ten games but that was largely due to injuries to Zach Lavine and DeMar DeRozen. Both are back here and played well in their most recent game, a win over Toronto. Chicago ranks in the top half of the NBA in most key statistical categories when playing on the road. The Spurs on the other hand rank 25th in defensive efficiency at home which will show in this game with the weapons the Bulls have offensively. Chicago is the 2nd best overall shooting team in the NBA, 1st in 3-point percentage and they should take advantage of a Spurs defense hemorrhaging points in the paint. The Bulls get this road win. |
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01-28-22 | Rhode Island +6.5 v. Dayton | Top | 51-53 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
#877 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Rhode Island +6.5 over Dayton, Friday at 7 PM ET - We were on URI earlier this week vs Richmond and came up short as they lost 70-63. It was a game the Rams led by 15 in the 2nd half but were outscored 15-1 in the final 5:45 as URI did not make a single shot during that stretch. It was a game they should have won and they blew it. Dayton also played on Tuesday and squeaked by Fordham the 4th lowest rated team in the A10. Final score was 68-61 and Fordham played without their 2nd and 3rd leading scorer in that game . Not overly impressive for Dayton. The Flyers are expected to have some ups and downs as they are the YOUNGEST team in college basketball. They start 4 freshmen and 1 sophomore and their first 3 players off the bench are also freshmen. As you would expect with a very young team, Dayton turns the ball over A LOT ranking 324th nationally in that category. URI is very good at creating turnovers defensively – 4th best in the conference – so this isn’t a great match up for Dayton when it comes to that. The Flyers also score most of their points from inside the arc (55% which is 31st most in the country) and that is the Rams strength on defense as they limit opponents to just 43% shooting from 2 point range – 9th best in the nation. Rhode Island has been a solid road team going 3-3 so far with losses @ Providence (one of the top teams in the Big East), @ Davidson by 4 (top rated team in the A10) and @ Florida Gulf Coast by 1. They are one of the better teams in the nation defensively (13th nationally in eFG% defense & allowing just 63 PPG). They are set up very well to cover as a dog and we think they have a great shot to win this one. Take the points. |
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01-27-22 | Loyola-Chicago v. Southern Illinois +6.5 | Top | 44-39 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
#812 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Southern Illinois +6.5 over Loyola Chicago, Thursday at 8 PM ET - These two just met on Saturday @ Loyola and the Ramblers won 59-47. The game was much closer than that with Loyola leading by just 3 points with under 3:00 minutes remaining in the game. The Ramblers went on an 11-2 run in the final 3 minutes to win by 12. Southern Illinois shot terribly (33%) and made 5 fewer FT’s and still were in the game until the final few minutes on the road. SIU is better than their 10-10 record (3-5 in conference play). They have played the 3rd toughest schedule in league play and 7 of their 10 losses have come by 8 points or less. Loyola has played the easiest schedule in league play and their 2 road wins in the MVC have come @ Evansville (last place in the conference) and Indiana State (2nd to last place in the conference). The Ramblers other 5 league games have all come at home. SIU is 3-1-1 ATS this year as a dog in MVC games and 6-3 ATS overall getting points. Their overall numbers at home (PPG, FG%, and 3 point %) are all much better than on the road as to be expected. We can expect Loyola to be in a letdown spot here after just beating Southern Illinois and with a huge game vs Drake, the team that sits in 2nd place behind them, on deck. Take the points. |
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01-27-22 | Lakers v. 76ers UNDER 218.5 | Top | 87-105 | Win | 100 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 218.5 LA Lakers @ Philadelphia 76ers, 7:30 PM ET - When I started writing the analysis on this game the number was 220 but has since dropped to the current total but we still have value with the Under. The Lakers got Anthony Davis back who instantly give the Lakers a defensive presence in the paint and a rim protector they’ve been lacking. The Lakers have also focused on the defensive end of the court in recent games with the 3rd best defensive efficiency rating in their last five games. That’s a drastic improvement compared to their season rank of 14th. L.A. has also made a point of playing slower in recent games. On the season the Lakers average 100.4 possessions per game which ranks 3rd most, but in their last five games that number dips to 14th at 98.3 possession per game. Philly is also playing much slower with the 4th slowest tempo in the NBA over their last five games and on the season. The 76ers are 8th in the NBA in points allowed per game at 105.7, have the 13th best 3-point percentage defense and overall FG% defense. The Sixers are also missing one of their top offensive threats in this game with Seth Curry sidelined. The Under has cashed in 5 of the last six meetings between these two teams on this court and we see another low scoring game here. |
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01-26-22 | San Diego State v. Utah State +1.5 | Top | 57-75 | Win | 100 | 8 h 39 m | Show |
#750 ASA TOP PLAY ON Utah State +1.5 over San Diego State, Wednesday at 10:30 PM ET - Utah State is in must win mode after starting MWC play with a 1-5 record. USU has played an extremely tough schedule this season (41st SOS) and 6 of their 9 losses have come by 5 points or less. They have an SOS of #2 in conference games and they have lost 4 in a row all by 7 points or less and their 2 home games during that stretch came by 2 vs Wyoming (4-1 conference record) and by 3 vs Boise State (7-0 conference record). The Aggies are much better than their 10-9 record and they are the only team in the Mountain West that ranks in the top 80 nationally in both offensive and defensive efficiency. This team was 20-9 last year and lost to Texas Tech in the first round of the NCAA tournament. They really need a win here and they are rested and getting healthy after a full week off. They catch San Diego State playing their 3rd game in 5 days. A very quick turnaround for the Aztecs after beating UNLV on Monday night. SDSU hasn’t played a road game since January 1st and their offense really struggles at times to say the least. On Saturday they scored only 37 points in a home loss to Boise. In road games they are averaging just 60 PPG while shooting 37% from the field and only 20% from beyond the arc. The Aztecs are very good defensively but you need to score some points to cover games on the road, especially as a favorite, and they simply don’t do that. These two conference rivals met 3 times last year and Utah State won 2 of those games. USU has been favored in every home game this year, including vs Boise last week who is undefeated in conference play. We like the value of the home dog here and we have Utah State winning this one. |
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01-26-22 | Mavs v. Blazers UNDER 217 | Top | 132-112 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
ASA top play on 9* UNDER 217 Dallas Mavericks at Portland Trailblazers, 10:10 PM ET - The Mavs are coming off one of their worst defensive showings of the season when they allowed 130 points to the Warriors last night. Dallas is 14-33-1 UNDER on the season and have stayed below the Total in 8 of their last nine games and 13 of their last fifteen. On the season the Mavericks are 5th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.072-points per possession. Dallas is also one of the slowest paced teams in the league at 95.8 possessions per game. The Blazers are slightly faster than the Mavs when it comes to pace but still rank as the 13th slowest in the NBA. The Mavs rank 22nd in offensive efficiency ratings and won’t take advantage of a poor Blazers defense. Portland has struggled offensively all season ranking 17th in offensive efficiency after finishing 2nd in that category a year ago. These are two poor shooting teams with the Blazers ranking 23rd in FG% offense, Dallas checks in at 20th with both teams shooting under 45%. Dallas is coming off a game last night and they are 8-0 UNDER this season when playing without rest and those games finished with only 200 total points. Bet UNDER. |
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01-26-22 | Grizzlies -4.5 v. Spurs | Top | 118-110 | Win | 100 | 6 h 4 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Memphis Grizzlies -4.5 @ San Antonio Spurs, 8:40 PM ET - We love the spot to fade the Spurs and back the Grizzlies in this matchup. First off, the line on this game looks “fishy” and higher than it should be. San Antonio was just a +1-point home underdog against Brooklyn and Philadelphia and are now catching 4 or more points here? Vegas clearly wants you to bet on the Spurs so in contrarian fashion we will back Memphis. The Spurs are coming off a game last night in Houston and played their best basketball of the season. But now they are unrested playing the second night of a back-to-back, their 3rd game in four nights and 8th game in only 13 nights. Fatigue will be a major factor tonight. Memphis meanwhile is coming off a loss on the 23rd in Dallas so they are rested and hungry for a W. The Grizz are 6-2 SU with 2 days rest this season while the Spurs are 4-5 SU without rest. Memphis is significantly better in terms of offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency with a 15-8 SU road record to their credit. Spurs are on an 0-5 ATS streak as a dog, Grizzlies have covered 4 straight off a spread loss. Lay it! |
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01-25-22 | Mavs v. Warriors UNDER 210 | Top | 92-130 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 210 Dallas Mavericks vs Golden State Warriors, 10 PM ET - These teams are easily two of the best defensive clubs in the NBA currently with the Warriors ranking 1st in defensive efficiency allowing 1.029-points per possession, Dallas is 4th at 1.067PPP. In their most recent 5 games the Mavs are 1st in DEFF, the Warriors are 4th. Both teams also rank in the bottom half of the NBA in pace of play with the Warriors ranking 19th, Dallas 23rd. The Mavericks have stayed Under in 8 straight games and 13 of their last fourteen. Golden State has also favored the Under with a 7-4 record their last eleven games overall, with 5 of their last six at home staying below the number. When these two teams met earlier this month, they combined for 181 total points. Bet Under. |
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01-25-22 | Maryland v. Rutgers UNDER 132.5 | Top | 68-60 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
#617/618 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 132.5 Points – Maryland vs Rutgers, Tuesday at 8 PM ET - These 2 met just 10 days ago and tallied 129 points with the final score Rutgers 70-59. They scored a bunch of points late as they had just 112 total points with 2:30 remaining in the game. If we can avoid a late flurry in this one we should be fine. Neither offense is great ranking 11th and 13th in the Big 10 in scoring. They rank 230th and 236th in offensive eFG%. Rutgers has shot ridiculously well from 3 point land in Big 10 play hitting 41% which would rank them 2nd in the country if they had shot that well the entire season. The fact is they shoot 34% from deep on the season (134th) and we can expect a regression to the mean. Defense is the strength of both of these teams with each ranking inside the top 75 in the country in adjusted efficiency. We really like the fact that these 2 rank 14th and 13th in Big 10 play at opponent’s percentage of points from the FT line. They simply don’t foul very much. Lastly, neither is an up tempo type team with Rutgers sits 12th in the league in tempo (conference play) and Maryland ranks 9th. Maryland showed some momentum defensively over the weekend holding a very good Illinois team to just 0.98 points per possession (Illini average 1.16 PPP on the season). Rutgers had one of their worst defensive performances allowing Minnesota to average 1.24 PPP and 54% shooting. Knights coach Pikiell was very upset with his team’s defensive effort and we can expect a very good outing on that end of the court tonight. Under is the play. |
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01-24-22 | Jazz v. Suns -9 | Top | 109-115 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns -9 over Utah Jazz, 7:10 PM ET - The Jazz have struggled offensively of late with Donovan Mitchell sidelined. The Jazz managed just 92 points last night against the Warriors and put up 111 in games against Houston and Detroit who are two of the worst defenses in the NBA. Utah has the #1 ranked offensive efficiency in the NBA for the season but in the last five games they slip to 10th. It will be especially tough to score tonight against a Suns team that is 2nd in the NBA in defensive efficiency allowing .995-points per possession. The red-hot Suns have won 9 of their last ten games and five straight with the average margin of victory in those five games coming by 15.4PPG. This is a really tough spot for the Jazz who are playing the 2nd night of a back-to-back, 3rd game in four days AND 6th game in nine days. These same two teams met again in Utah on Wednesday so expect the Suns to make a statement here. |
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01-24-22 | South Dakota v. Western Illinois -6 | Top | 75-72 | Loss | -108 | 21 h 0 m | Show |
#768 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Western Illinois -6 over South Dakota, Thursday at 7 PM ET - South Dakota sits ahead of WIU in the Summit standings with a 4-3 record (WIU 3-4) but WIU is the better team by our metrics. South Dakota has played one of the easiest schedules in the nation (348th) and they have played the easiest schedule so far in the Summit League (10th). They still have 3 conference losses despite that. They may look like they are on a bit of a roll winning 4 straight but those wins have come vs the 4 lowest rated teams in the conference with all 3 rank below 267th nationally. They Coyotes have struggled on the road with a 2-5 SU record and their only wins away from home came @ North Dakota who is 4-14 on the season and 0-5 in conference play and @ St Thomas who is 8-10 overall and 2-4 in league play. They haven’t beaten a single team ranked inside the top 200 this season and they are 0-4 SU vs teams ranked higher than 200. WIU is coming off a home loss vs the top team in the conference, South Dakota State. They will be hungry for a win here as their 2 home games in conference play (both losses) have come vs the top 2 teams in the league. They are 6-0 in their other home games this season. Offensively they average 80 PPG and an even better 85 PPG at home. They should have success in this one vs a South Dakota defense that ranks 308th nationally in eFG% defense and 353rd in 3-point defense (out of 358). The Coyotes were just on the road in Minnesota on Saturday (St Thomas) and now they are in Illinois just 2 days later to play this make up game that was originally scheduled for last week. WIU has been at home since January 15th. Tough spot for the road team. Lay it. |
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01-23-22 | Hawks v. Hornets -3 | Top | 113-91 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 21 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Charlotte Hornets -3 over Atlanta Hawks, 7:10 PM ET - The Hornets are quietly making some noise in the East with an overall 26-20 record, while the Hawks have disappointed at 20-25. On the season the Hawk are 9-14 SU on the road with a negative differential of minus -3.1PPG which ranks 20th. A large reason why Atlanta has struggled away from home is their defensive efficiency ratings which is 2nd to last in the NBA. Charlotte has the 9th best average point differential in the league at home at +4.4PPG. They have the 5th best home OEFF numbers which is clearly a significant advantage against the Hawks D. Charlotte has won 7 of their last eight games with impressive wins against the Bucks (twice), at Philly and at Boston. Atlanta has won three in a row but all three were at home. Charlotte is 9-3-1 ATS the last 13 meetings with Atlanta in Charlotte. |
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01-23-22 | Xavier v. Marquette +2 | Top | 64-75 | Win | 100 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
#838 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Marquette +2 over Xavier, Sunday at 2 PM ET - Don’t look now but Marquette just might be the hottest team in the Big East. The Golden Eagles have now won 5 straight games including wins @ Villanova earlier this week and home wins vs Seton Hall and Providence – 3 of the top teams in the conference. They are catching Xavier in a tough spot playing their 2nd straight road game with the stomach flu running through the team. The Musketeers topped DePaul 68-67 on the road Wednesday but it was a struggle. They trailed for much of the game and actually took their first lead of the 2nd half with just 2:00 minutes remaining. DePaul played that game without their leading scorer Freeman-Liberty (21 PPG) so an unimpressive effort from Xavier. They had 2 key players under the weather for that game and now another starter (Freemantle) is battling the flu. They may or may not play but none are 100%. These 2 met back on December 18th when Marquette was in the midst of a 4 game losing streak and simply not playing well. Xavier won the game 80-71 and that margin came at the FT line where the Musketeers attempted 35 FTS’s (made 21) to just 12 attempts for the Eagles (made 8). Marquette has been scorching from deep hitting at least 43% from beyond the arc in 4 of their last 5 games and Xavier has struggled guarding the 3 their last few games allowing 43% and 38% vs Creighton and DePaul. This sets up very nicely for the Golden Eagles to win at home. |
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01-22-22 | Pacers v. Suns UNDER 220 | Top | 103-113 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 220 Indiana Pacers @ Phoenix Suns, 9:10 PM ET - These same two teams met Jan 14th in Indiana and that game finished with 206 total points which finished well Under the number of 219.5. The Pacers managed just 94 points in the contest and that was with their full complement of players. Indiana just played and beat Golden State on the road with their top 6 players out of the lineup. The bench and role players stepped up for that game but don’t expect a repeat performance. A big anomaly in the game against GST was the Pacers 3-point shooting as they made 15 of 35 3’s. Indiana is 26th in the NBA in 3-point percentage shooting and won’t have another big night from beyond the arc against the Suns defense which is 3rd in points allowed, 1st in FG% D, 5th in 3pt% D and 8th in rebounding. The Pacers are 17th in scoring this year averaging 108.3PPG. Phoenix allows the 5th fewest points per game at home this season where their games have averaged 216 total points. Indiana’s road games have averaged 214 total points. Both teams are trending around average in pace of play their last five games so it won’t be an up-and-down affair. This shapes up to be an easy UNDER. |
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01-22-22 | Florida State v. Miami-FL -2.5 | Top | 61-60 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 40 m | Show |
#646 ASA TOP PLAY ON Miami FL -2.5 over Florida State, Saturday at 2 PM ET - Huge revenge game for Miami from just 11 days ago. Miami led on the road @ FSU for a majority of the game and lost 65-64 when the Canes (with a 1 point lead) were called for a foul with 1 second left on the clock. FSU hit both FT’s and won by a point. That loss is the Canes only setback in their last 11 games. This team is playing very well. They beat Duke on the road and just walloped UNC at home by 28 points all within the last 2 weeks. FSU is also on a bit of a roll winning 5 straight but 4 of those wins came at home. For the season the Noles are just 2-4 SU in road games. Dating back to last season FSU has covered just 1 of their last 9 road games. They are averaging just 66 PPG and shooting only 41% from the field in their 6 road games this season. Miami is 9-1 at home this season averaging 84 PPG and hitting nearly 50% of their shots. We like the red hot Canes to get their quick revenge at home in this one. |
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01-21-22 | Pistons v. Jazz -13.5 | Top | 101-111 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 1 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UTAH JAZZ -13.5 over Detroit Pistons, 9:10 PM ET - Detroit is 4-19 SU away from home and they’ve been beaten by an average of -14.2PPG which is the worst numbers in the NBA. The Pistons are LAST in the league in offensive efficiency on the road averaging less than 1.000 points per possession and they 26th in DEFF allowing 1.151PPP. Detroit is 24th in points allowed per game, 29th in opponent FG% D, 28th fin 3-point percentage D and 25th in rebounding. Now they face a jazz team that is 1st in scoring, the 3rd best shooting team at 47.5%, 6th in 3-point percentage and 4th in rebounding. Offensively the Pistons aren’t any better than they are defensively. Detroit is 28th in scoring, 29th in FG%, 29th in 3-point percentage and 28th in offensive rebounding. The Jazz are top 12 defensively in all the key categories. What makes this play more attractive is the fact the Pistons are coming off a big come from behind win at Sacramento while the Jazz are off a disappointing home loss to the lowly Rockets. The Jazz recently lost in Detroit as a -10.5-point favorite and will get a 20-point win here. |
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01-21-22 | Evansville v. Illinois State -7.5 | Top | 56-94 | Win | 100 | 5 h 29 m | Show |
#888 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Illinois State -7 over Evansville, Friday at 7 PM ET - We look for ISU to play very well at home after playing very poorly in their worst loss of the year @ Missouri State. Prior to that blowout loss, the Redbirds, who are 9-9 on the season, had 5 losses by 6 points or less or in OT. That included tight games @ top 10 Wisconsin (lost by 4) and vs a very solid St Louis team on a neutral court (lost by 6). ISU has had a rough stretch of games over the last 30 days with 4 road games and just 1 home game. In that 1 home game they topped Bradley by 9 points. Tonight they take on an Evansville team that is 0-5 in the MVC and just 4-12 on the season. The Aces wins have come vs DePauw (non Division 1), IUPUI (ranked 358th out of 358 teams), Eastern Illinois (ranked 354th) and Tennessee Tech (ranked 273rd). They are 1-5 SU on the road this season (only win vs Eastern Illinois) and 4 of those 5 losses have come by at least 20 points. ISU is very good offensive averaging 79 PPG and they rank 17th nationally hitting almost 39% of their shots from beyond the arc. That’s a bad match up for this Evansville defense that allows opponents to make 42% of their 3’s which is the 2nd worst mark in the country. On top of that, Evansville struggles to score averaging only 59 PPG which won’t get it done here vs the higher scoring Redbirds. We’ll lay the points. |
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01-20-22 | North Dakota v. Oral Roberts -20.5 | Top | 76-80 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
#806 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oral Roberts -20.5 over North Dakota, Thursday at 8 PM ET - This one will be ugly. ORU has a top notch offense that ranks 77th nationally in adjusted efficiency, 32nd in eFG% and 13th in 3 point %. The are the 8th highest scoring team in the nation averaging 83 PPG and at home they are putting up a ridiculous 91 PPG. That’s going to be a massive sized problem for a North Dakota defense that ranks DEAD LAST in the country (358th) in defensive efficiency. The Hawks allow their opponents to hit 40% of their 3-point shots and we already mentioned ORU’s prowess from beyond the arc. ORU is coming home after sweeping a 3 game road trip and their last home game was on January 1st vs Nebraska Omaha. Why do we bring that up? Because Nebraska Omaha and tonight’s opponent are very similar defensively (both stink) with Omaha actually ranking 11 spots higher in defensive efficiency. How did that game turn out? Oral Roberts won 107-62! Don’t be at all surprised of the Golden Eagles hit triple digits in this game. Does North Dakota have any chance of keeping up? Nope. The Hawks rely fairly heavily on the 3 point shot and they aren’t very good at it (288th nationally). They are facing an Oral Roberts defense that has allowed opponents to make only 29% of their 3’s which is the 38th best defensive mark in the country. They are 0-8 on the road losing by an average of 19 PPG. The 3 worst teams in the Summit are North Dakota, Nebraska Omaha, and Denver (all ranked below 300). ND played the other 2 conference cellar dwellars on the road this month and lost @ Denver by 19 and @ Nebraska Omaha by 16. Now they are playing the 2nd best team in the league on the road and it’s gonna get ugly. |
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01-20-22 | Pelicans v. Knicks UNDER 210 | Top | 102-91 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 209.5 New Orleans Pelicans vs New York Knicks, 7:35 PM ET - Let’s start with the pace of play for both teams. The Knicks are THE slowest paced team in the NBA at 95.1 possessions per game, the Pelicans are 21st slowest at 97.1. Most recently in their last five games both are playing slower yet. New York gives up the 6th fewest points per game in the league and New Orleans is 24th in scoring. The Knicks are 23rd in offensive efficiency averaging 1.092-points per possession, New Orleans is 25th at 1.082PPP. These are two of the worst shooting teams in the NBA at 43.8% for New York and 43.7% for the Pelicans. The Knicks are on a 7-0 UNDER run when they are favored, the Pelicans are 5-1 UNDER in their last six overall. We don’t see this game getting over 205 total points. |
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01-19-22 | Pistons v. Kings -5.5 | Top | 133-131 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 37 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* SACRAMENTO KINGS -6 over Detroit Pistons - Scheduling clearly favors the Kings here with the Pistons coming off a marquee game versus the Warriors on Tuesday night. When playing without rest the Pistons are 2-5 SU this season with a net differential of minus -17PPG. Detroit is 3-18 SU away from home and they’ve been beaten by an average of -14.8PPG which is the worst numbers in the NBA. The Pistons are LAST in the league in offensive efficiency on the road averaging less than 1.000 points per possession and they 26th in DEFF allowing 1.147PPP. Sacramento hasn’t been great at home this year with a negative differential of minus -2.7PPG and a 12-15 SU record but they have won 3 of their last six at home with quality wins over the Lakers and Heat included. The Kings most recent home game was a disappointing loss to the Rockets who shot incredibly well for the game at 54% overall and 40% from 3. The Kings have been off since Sunday and are 3-0 ATS +10PPG when in this scheduling situation. Detroit is playing the 2nd of a B2B, 3rd in four nights and 4th in 6 days. |
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01-19-22 | Iowa v. Rutgers +3.5 | Top | 46-48 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
#712 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Rutgers +3.5 over Iowa, Wednesday at 8:30 PM ET - Rutgers is on a nice little roll winning 5 of their last 6 games. They’re unbeaten at home in Big 10 play with wins over Purdue, Michigan, and Nebraska. Iowa has played 3 conference road games losing 2 of those. Their lone Big 10 road win was on Sunday @ Minnesota facing a Gopher team without 2 of their best players in the line up (Curry & Sutherlin). The Hawkeyes have been very good at home this year (10-1 record) but their numbers drop off drastically on the road. When compared to their overall season numbers, Iowa averages 15 fewer PPG, -4% shooting, and -%7 percent from deep when playing on the road. Last year Iowa had their best team they’ve had in 20 seasons and they were -3 @ Rutgers and struggled to get by with a 77-75 win. Rutgers is the much better defensive team (54th in defensive efficiency to 158th for Iowa) and they are the bigger team. Iowa will struggle inside the arc offensively in this game. The Knights are 9-1 SU at home this season and 37-6 SU at home since the start of the 2020 season. We like the host to win this one outright. |
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01-18-22 | Tennessee -6.5 v. Vanderbilt | Top | 68-60 | Win | 100 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
#657 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tennessee -6.5 over Vanderbilt, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - We expect UT to play with an extra effort here after getting absolutely embarrassed over the weekend @ Kentucky. The Vols lost that game 107-79 and the Wildcats averaged a ridiculous 1.47 points per possession in the win. It was the first time since 2006 that the Vols allowed a team to reach 100 points. That was a enormously poor effort from the UT defense that STILL ranks 5th nationally in adjusted efficiency even after that performance allowing just 0.89 PPP. UK is ranked 4th nationally in offensive efficiency and now the Volunteers face a Vandy team that ranks 10th in the SEC in offensive efficiency. We expect the Commodores to struggle on offense vs one of the top defenses in the nation who will play with a little extra passion here. Vandy’s home court advantage has been little to none this year as 5 of their 6 losses have come at home. They are just 2-4 SU vs top 100 teams this year with all 4 losses coming by double digits. While Vanderbilt’s strength of schedule is ranked outside the top 100, Tennessee has played one of the toughest slates in the country (14th SOS). The Vols come in with 5 losses on the season and ALL 5 have come vs teams ranked inside Ken Pom’s top 17 (Villanova, Kentucky, Alabama, LSU, and Texas Tech). UT was favored by 12 @ Vandy last year (won 70-58) and now they are laying half that number despite the Vols ranking 14th this year (per Ken Pom) while they were 28th last year when this game tipped off. Vandy is off a 7 point win over UGA (the lowest rated team in the SEC) but they are running into a buzzsaw here. The Vols have won 5 in a road @ Vanderbilt and this is a must win type of game after their blowout loss. Lay it. |
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01-17-22 | Wyoming v. Nevada -2.5 | Top | 77-67 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 52 m | Show |
#892 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Nevada -2.5 over Wyoming, Monday at 8 PM ET - We love this spot for Nevada. Their most recent home game was a 15 point loss vs Boise State last week. They Wolfpack were favored by 2.5 in that game vs a BSU team that is ranked 30 spots higher than this Wyoming team yet we’re laying the same number. Wyoming, on the other hand, is coming off an upset 2-point win at Utah State on Saturday with the Aggies playing without 2 of their best players. It was a huge win for the Cowboys who hadn’t played a game since December 25th prior to Saturday. They are a thin team with a short bench and now must play 2 nights later after not having played for 20 days. The Wolfpack also have some revenge in mind here after losing both games vs Wyoming last year. Both were on the road and just 2 days apart due to the Covid situation. Nevada was FAVORED in both of those road games last year but lost tight games by 5 & 7 points. They returned 6 of their top 8 players from last year’s 16-10 team and they will be extra motivated here. Nevada has played the tougher schedule so their record isn’t as impressive as Wyoming’s, but the Wolfpack have won 7 of their last 9 after a slow start to the season. The only 2 losses during that run were vs Boise State & Kansas. If this one is tight late and Nevada needs to hold on to a lead, we love the fact they shoot 78% from the FT line (Wyoming shoots just 69%). The Pack has a great home court advantage with a 61-7 SU record last 68 home games. We side with Nevada tonight. |
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01-17-22 | Raptors v. Heat -4 | Top | 99-104 | Win | 100 | 20 h 16 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Miami Heat -3.5 over Toronto Raptors, 7:40 PM ET - We like the situation here with the Heat coming off a horrible home showing and loss, while the Raptors are off a big road win over the Bucks. Miami is 13-5 SU at home with a +/- of +6.6PPG which is 4th best in the NBA. The Raptors are 9-8 SU away from home with a negative differential of -1.7PPG. The Heat have won 4 of their last five at home and are coming off a brutal loss to the 76ers. Miami shot just 38% for the game and 26% from beyond the arc which are both well below their season averages. Butler, Lowry and Robinson combined to shoot 4 of 31 from the field. The Heat have the 2nd best offensive efficiency numbers in the NBA over their last five games at 1.210PPP compared to a Raptors team that is 18th over that span of games. Toronto is better defensively in the last five games but only barely with a DEFF rating of 1.102PPP compared to 1.111PPP for the Heat. Given the situation we like Miami to get a solid home win here. |
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01-16-22 | Warriors v. Wolves OVER 216 | Top | 99-119 | Win | 100 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 216 Golden State Warriors vs. Minnesota Timberwolves, 8:10 PM ET - First off we’ll apologize for this shorter analysis but its football Sunday and time is limited. This game features two of the top 12 teams in scoring this season with both averaging over 109PPG. GST is 11th in offensive efficiency at 1.113-points per possession and 12th in overall pace of play on the year. Minnesota is 6th in pace and will want to play fast here at home. Most recently, in their last five games the Wolves have the 5th most efficient offense in the NBA at 1.170PPP. The Wolves are on a 5-0 Over streak against a team with a winning record, Golden State is on a 4-0 Over run against teams with a losing record. The last four meetings between these two teams have finished with more than 233 total points. Yes, we know there is not Steph Curry here, but they do have Klay Thompson back in the mix and their best defender Draymond Green is out. BET OVER! |
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01-15-22 | Oregon v. USC -6 | Top | 79-69 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 22 m | Show |
#812 ASA TOP PLAY ON 9* USC -6 over Oregon, Saturday at 11 PM ET - Great value here with the Trojans. As of this write up they are laying just 6 at home vs Oregon who is playing their 2nd straight road game. Because USC struggled a bit at home on Thursday with Oregon State (won by 10) and Oregon upset UCLA in OT this line is off. The Ducks opened +11 @ UCLA and we have USC rated the EXACT same (within 2 spots) of UCLA and this line is just 6. Now way the Bruins are 5 points better than the Trojans on a neutral site which is what this line suggests. A letdown is in order here for Oregon and this is a very tough spot as they are playing their 3rd road game in 6 days (Beat Oregon St by 2 on Monday and UCLA in OT on Thursday). USC is a fantastic defensive team that has held 12 of their 15 opponents to 40% or less from the field. Not a great match up for an Oregon team that shoots just 43% on the road and just 32% from deep. These teams have faced off here @ USC 3 times since the start of the 2019 season and the Trojans have won those games by 17, 14, and 14 points. We love this spot for USC and we’ll lay the points. |
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01-15-22 | 76ers v. Heat OVER 209 | Top | 109-98 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 209 Philadelphia 76ers @ Miami Heat, 8:10 PM ET - Both teams are coming off big games last night so we expect both defenses to be lax here in what sets up to be a higher scoring game. This Total is set significantly lower than the league average of points scored of 216.8PPG. Miami relies on their 3-point shooting on offense with the 2nd best league average at 37.8%. The Heat have the best overall offensive efficiency rating in the NBA right now in the last five games at 1.214PPP. The 76ers have also been highly efficient in their last five averaging 1.126PPP which is 10th best in the league. Over their last five games the Sixers are shooting 47.9% which is up from their season average of 46.1%. As we mentioned before, this is the second game of a back-to-back and these two teams combined are OVER 8-1-1 when playing without rest and those games averaged 216.8 and 220.8PPG. The Bet here is OVER! |
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01-15-22 | Notre Dame v. Virginia Tech -6 | Top | 73-79 | Push | 0 | 20 h 30 m | Show |
#754 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Virginia Tech -6 over Notre Dame, Saturday at 6 PM ET - This is an absolute huge home game for Tech. They have underachieved but they are much better than their 8-7 record. They are 0-4 in the ACC and after this game they play 3 consecutive road games which basically makes this a must win. The Hokies enter this game off 3 straight losses (vs Duke, NC State, and Virginia) and Notre Dame has won 6 straight yet Tech is favored by 6. That alone speak volumes. The average rating of ND’s last 6 opponents, all wins, is 160 and 4 of those games were at home. The Irish have played 3 road games thus far in the ACC and they are vs the 3 lowest rated teams in the league. They lost by 16 @ BC, beat Ga Tech in OT, and beat Pitt by 1. Va Tech has a fantastic defense ranked 26th nationally in adjusted efficiency and 41st in eFG% defense. Where they really excel is defending the arc allowing 26% good for 9th in the nation. Bad news for ND who lives at the 3-point line with 39% of their points coming from deep – 32nd in the nation – and they are even better at home hitting 41% from beyond the arc. On the flip side, VT is a great 3-point shooting team hitting 39% of their triples (15th best in the country) and the Irish struggle to defend the arc allowing 34% or 200th nationally. This one sets up really well for the home team in must win mode vs a road team that’s played very easy conference slate thus far (2nd easiest in the ACC). Lay it with Virginia Tech. |
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01-14-22 | VCU +3 v. St Bonaventure | Top | 53-73 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
#889 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* VCU +3 over St Bonaventure, Friday at 7:30 PM ET - We’ll be honest. We don’t love taking road teams in college hoops unless the situation is right. One thing we do need most of the time when siding with a road team is good defense which travels. Teams can lose their shooting acumen at times on the road, but defense is a constant. That’s absolutely what we have here with VCU. They rank 3rd nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, 2nd in eFG% defense, 3rd in 3 point % defense, 14th in 2 point % defense, and 8th in PPG allowed. This team is simply as good as it gets defensively. Their offensive numbers for the season are not great but they are absolutely trending in the right direction on that end of the court as well. The Rams have scored 75 or more in 3 of their last 5 games including topping 80 points in each of their last 2 games. If they do that, they are pretty much unbeatable with the defense they play. They are a perfect 4-0 SU on the road this year including 2 wins over top 100 teams Vanderbilt and Dayton. They average more PPG offensively in road games and allow fewer PPG away from home. This team just simply seems to play better away from home. St Bonnies is a solid team but they need to knock some rust off. They’ve only played one game since December 17th and that was an OT win @ LaSalle on Tuesday. For a recent reference point, VCU just played LaSalle on the road as well last Saturday and dominated the game beating the Explorers by 19 points. The Bonnies defense isn’t nearly at the level of VCU’s ranking 109th in adjusted efficiency and 235th guarding the arc. They have allowed 8 of their last 10 opponents to score more than 1.00 point per possession which isn’t great. For comparison’s sake, VCU has not allowed a single opponent to score 1.00 PPP in a game this year. Zippo in 14 games. The closest was Baylor who put up 0.99 PPP in their 8 point win over VCU and the Bears rank 4th nationally in offensive efficiency. Take the points with the better team and the better defense in this one. |
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01-14-22 | Raptors v. Pistons OVER 213.5 | Top | 87-103 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 213.5 Toronto Raptors @ Detroit Pistons, 7:10 PM ET - We expect a higher scoring game here between the Raptors and Pistons with a predicted finish of 220+ by our computer analytics. Toronto is coming off a defensive grinder against the Suns and will be eager to get their offensive rhythm back prior to a much bigger game tomorrow night versus the Bucks. The Raptors were averaging 118PPG in their 6 previous games before facing a Suns defense that is 2nd in defensive efficiency allowing 1.049-points per possession. Toronto’s 9th best offensive efficiency should have a much easier time scoring tonight against a Pistons defense that ranks 22nd in DEFF and allows 111.3PPG which is 24th. Looking at the Pistons last ten games we see they’ve allowed 133, 140 and 144 points so the potential for a really big number from Toronto is not out of question. Detroit is one of the least efficient offenses in the NBA but they are the 8th fastest which means plenty of possessions. The Raptors aren’t much better defensively than the Pistons as they give up 1.118-points per possession which ranks 20th in the NBA. These two teams met in November and put up 248 points. It won’t be that high tonight but it will be more than the 214 set by the oddsmakers. |
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01-13-22 | Clippers v. Pelicans UNDER 215 | Top | 89-113 | Win | 100 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 215 LA Clippers @ New Orleans Pelicans, 8:10 PM ET - This number is set slightly lower than the average NBA total right now of 216.6PPG but our math model suggests that this game will not get 210. It starts with pace for both teams with the Clippers checking in at 15th and the Pelicans slower yet at 20th. In their most recent 5 games both are playing slower yet and that shouldn’t change here. If we look at LA’s last five games, we see they are 28th in offensive efficiency at 1.016-points per possession, shooting just 42.9% from the field. New Orleans has been one of the worst offenses in the NBA this season averaging 105.7PPG on 43.7% shooting (26th) and 33.8% 3-point shooting which is 23rd. The Clippers have a top 8 defense in FG% D, 3PT% D and points allowed, giving up 105.3PPG. The Pels have some bad defensive numbers of late but the games they’ve allowed teams to score big numbers have come against some of the league’s elite offenses (Wolves, Suns, Jazz, Bucks) who all rank top 11 in scoring. The Clippers are 23rd in the NBA in average points per game. This is an UNDER BET! |
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01-13-22 | Florida Atlantic v. Middle Tennessee -3.5 | Top | 57-70 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
#790 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Middle Tennessee State -3.5 over Florida Atlantic, Thursday at 7 PM ET - MTSU is just glad to be back at home after not playing here since mid December. The Blue Raiders are coming off 3 straight losses, all on the road. Two of those losses were vs Chattanooga, the top team in the Southern Conference, and then a 7 point loss @ UNT, the 3rd ranked team in CUSA. We were impressed how they fought a very good North Texas team in a very tough spot. MTSU was coming off a tight road loss @ Rice just 2 nights earlier and catching UNT off a rare home loss. FAU, on the other hand, upset Marshall on the road Saturday as 5 points dogs. The Herd played without one of their better players (Darius George) while FAU shot lights out at 54% which was more than 10% higher than their road average coming into the game. The Owls were 0-3 in road games entering that won with losses vs High Points, New Mexico, and VCU. That was a rare road win for Florida Atlantic on Saturday and with that win they’ve still won just 5 of their last 23 true road games. They are a poor defensive team (276th in eFG% defense) and more so on the road where they have allowed opponents to hit 49% of their shots from the field. Defending the arc is a huge problem for the Owls as well ranking 353rd allowing a ridiculous 41% on the season. They also turn the ball over on almost 20% of their possessions which is not good vs MTSU who is very adept at creating turnovers (41st nationally). It’s a double revenger for Middle Tennessee after losing both meetings last year. Both were on the road on back to back nights as that’s the way the played it last year with the Covid situation. Now they get FAU to play FAU here at home and the Raiders will play with urgency coming off 3 losses. Lay it. |
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01-12-22 | Nets +2.5 v. Bulls | Top | 138-112 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets +2.5 over Chicago Bulls, 10 PM ET - Scheduling has a lot to do with this bet as the Bulls are playing their 4th game in seven days and the 2nd of a back-to-back tonight when they face the Nets. Of course, playing status can change throughout the day but as of now the Nets will have their Big 3 in the lineup with Irving, Durant and Harden. The Nets had won 3 straight road games prior to a loss in Portland the other night, but they were without Harden. The Bulls have been a great surprise this season and are playing well but their 9-1 SU results recently are misleading. In their last nine wins, only one has come against a team with a winning record (Washington 21-20 SU) and they lost the lone game against a winning team in Dallas. Brooklyn is looking up at the Bulls in the standings and have lost to them twice already this season making this game a little more important for them. The glaring advantage the Nets have in this game is their 3-point defense which is 1st in the league compared to the Bulls which ranks 20th. |
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01-12-22 | Minnesota v. Michigan State UNDER 139.5 | Top | 69-71 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
#695/696 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 139.5 Points – Minnesota vs Michigan State, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - We’re getting some solid value on the Under in this game. Our numbers have this one landing in the mid 130’s. These 2 met in December and the final score was MSU 75, Minnesota 67 so they tallied 142 total points. The set total in that game was 135 so because they went Over in the first game this one is now 5 points higher. The fact is the first game was very fortunate to reach the point total it did. At halftime it was on pace for 122 points. With 1:00 minute remaining these 2 teams had combined for 129 points and scored 13 in the final minute. Michigan State likes to play at a faster pace but Minnesota is one of the slower teams in the Big 10 (13th in the conference in pace) and they know to have a chance here they can’t get in an up & down game with Sparty. Expect Minnesota to control the tempo here. Both teams are very good defensively (20th & 66th in defensive efficiency) and both defend the 3 as well as anyone in the nation (MSU 27th defending the arc & Minnesota 11th). Both teams limit their fouls and are very good at keeping their opponents off the FT line – only 22 FT’s made in the first meeting. Prior to scoring 142 in the first meeting this year these two rivals only topped 137 once in their previous 9 meetings. Under is the play. |
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01-11-22 | Suns -3.5 v. Raptors | Top | 99-95 | Win | 100 | 20 h 30 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns -3.5 over Toronto Raptors, 7:40 PM ET - Any chance we get to back an elite team off a bad loss we’ll consider it and tonight we get that opportunity with the Suns. Phoenix lost their most recent game at home to Miami 100-123, and it was never close. The Suns shot just 38% for the game which was below their season average of 47.3% which is 3rd best in the NBA. Phoenix is 13-4 SU on the road this season with a +/- of +5.4PPG which is also 3rd best in the league. Toronto is playing well right now with 6 straight wins, but we’re not overly impressed with that resume considering the competition included New Orleans, San Antonio, the Knicks and Clippers. The two wins over the Bucks and Jazz in that stretch is misleading as the Bucks were without 3 starters including Giannis and the Jazz sat everyone that game. Toronto really doesn’t enjoy much of a home court advantage (12-10 SU) as fans aren’t allowed in Canada. Phoenix is 25-11 SU off since the start of last season with an average differential of +7.1PPG. Easy call with a focused Phoenix team. |
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01-10-22 | North Dakota State v. Denver +5 | Top | 87-69 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
#886 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Denver +5 over North Dakota State, Monday at 8 PM ET - Denver is playing their best basketball of the year right now and we feel they are undervalued. 3 of their best performances of the season have come in their last 5 games including an easy 19 point win over North Dakota here on Saturday. The Pioneers have won 3 of their last 4 home games with their only loss coming by 4 points in OT. Their record looks poor at 6-11 but we need to take into account they played a brutal schedule from late November through mid December. During that stretch they played 6 consecutive road games in an 18 day span that were all losses. Since that stretch Denver is 3-2 SU with an OT loss (mentioned above) and a loss @ Oral Roberts, the 2nd highest rated team in the Summit. They have shot 49% during that stretch (their seasonal average is 46%) and averaged 76 PPG (seasonal average 69 PPG). NDSU hasn’t been great on the road where they have a losing record. They were barely able to get by @ Nebraska Omaha on Saturday, the worst team in the Summit, winning by 4 despite taking 13 more FT attempts. Now 2 days later they are on the road again, in altitude, which will be tough for a team that basically plays 7 guys. The Bison average 13 fewer PPG away from home this year (72 PPG overall and 59 PPG on the road) and shoot nearly 10% lower from the field (44% overall and 35% on the road). In Saturday’s win vs Omaha they were only able to average 0.89 PPP vs a team that ranks 346th nationally in defensive efficiency. They’re catching Denver playing confident basketball and we think the Pioneers have a solid shot to win this one outright. Take the points. |
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01-10-22 | 76ers -10.5 v. Rockets | Top | 111-91 | Win | 100 | 8 h 58 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Philadelphia 76ers -10.5 over Houston Rockets, 8:10 PM ET - The Rockets look like a dumpster fire right now and are in a tough spot here coming off a game yesterday, playing their 3rd game in four days AND facing a rested Sixers team. Houston gave up 141 points last night to Minnesota and continue to be the worst defensive teams in the NBA. The Rockets give up 127.8PPG on the season and 1.233-points per possession. Houston is getting beat by an average of -8.6PPG on the season, but in their last five games they have a negative differential of minus -14.4PPG. Philadelphia on the other hand is playing really well right now with a +/- differential of +12.4PPG in their last five games. In that same span of five games the Sixers have the 5th best offensive efficiency numbers and 9th best defensive efficiency numbers. These two teams just played in Philly earlier this month with the 76ers winning by 20 points. Philadelphia is rested and will be primed for a big road win here. Lay it. |
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01-09-22 | Wisconsin v. Maryland +1.5 | Top | 70-69 | Win | 100 | 22 h 24 m | Show |
#856 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Maryland +1.5 over Wisconsin, Sunday at 7:30 PM ET - The Badgers have started the New Year with a bang beating Purdue on the road and stomping Iowa at home. This is still a very young team that will have ups and downs this season and this is a really tough spot for them on the road after those 2 huge wins. Maryland is a solid team and they are in must win mode. The Terps have started the Big 10 season 0-3 with losses @ Iowa, @ Illinois, and vs Northwestern. They can’t afford to lose this one at home before they take to the road again next Wednesday. Maryland is 8-6 on the season but they’ve been very competitive with all but one of their losses going to the wire. They’ve actually held the lead in the 2nd half in all but one of their losses so this team is much better than their record. Wisconsin is not a great shooting team ranking 275th in eFG% and 302nd in 3 point percentage but they thrive at getting to the FT line (21% of their points come from the stripe). Maryland does a very good job at not fouling so the Badgers will have problems getting to the line on the road in this one. This line has been over adjusted due to recent results. Wisconsin was just a 13 point dog @ Purdue earlier this week and now they are favored @ Maryland? We have the Terps as a small favorite here and expect them to get the win in their first home game as an underdog this season. |
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01-09-22 | Wolves v. Rockets OVER 229.5 | Top | 141-123 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 229.5 Minnesota Timberwolves @ Houston Rockets, 7:10 PM ET - Houston is coming off a 106-130 loss to the Mavericks and the significance of that game is the following. The Mavs are one of the slowest pace teams in the NBA ranking 28 out of 30 teams. Minnesota is one of the fastest ranking 8th. Dallas averages just 105.6PPG and they managed 130 versus this Rockets defense which is not a surprise considering Houston ranks 2nd to last in the league in defensive efficiency. In their last five games the Rockets are giving up an average of 124PPG. Minnesota has their Big 3 back on the court with Towns, Russell and Edwards and they’ll play fast and score plenty of point to help this game get Over the number. The Wolves are 14th in scoring this season at 109PPG. Houston is the 3rd fastest paced team in the NBA which means plenty of possessions for both teams and more scoring opportunities. When these same two teams met in October, they combined for 230 points. The bet here is OVER! |
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01-08-22 | St. Mary's v. BYU UNDER 132.5 | Top | 43-52 | Win | 100 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
#797/798 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UNDER 132 St Mary’s @ BYU, 10 PM ET - This is a big rivalry between two teams fighting for the 2nd spot in the West Coast Conference behind Gonzaga. Both teams are outstanding defensively with BYU check in with the 29th best defensive efficiency rating in college basketball allowing .93-points per possession. Those numbers are legit as they come against 35th toughest schedule to date. As good as the Cougars defensive numbers are, St Mary’s is better. The Gaels rank 12th in DEFF allowing .905PPP and they’ve faced the 64th toughest schedule. St Mary’s has allowed 60 or less points in 9 of their last eleven games. The other big key here is tempo. The Gaels rank 304th in tempo and have an average possession length of 18.5 seconds. In this heated rivalry these two teams have combined for 116 and 114 total points in the last two meetings a year ago. This game should be another low scoring defensive affair. |
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01-08-22 | Heat v. Suns OVER 216.5 | Top | 123-100 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 217 Miami Heat @ Phoenix Suns, 9:10 PM ET - We’ve been successful on several occasions recently with the OVER in the Heat game and will go back to the well today. Without a proven rim protector on defense teams are in attack mode when they face the Heat. Miami averages just 3.1 blocks per game which is last in the NBA and most recently in their last five games that average dips to just 2.0BPG. Miami is allowing over 112PPG in their last five games and their defense efficiency rates near the bottom of the NBA. Scoring hasn’t been an issue for the Heat though and they recently got two of their best shooters back in the lineup with the return of Duncan and Strus. In the last five games the Heat are scoring 115PPG and have the 5th best offensive efficiency rating. Miami is the 4th best 3-point shooting team in the NBA on the year at 37.3% but in their last five games that number improves to 41%. On the other side of the court we have the Suns who rank 3rd overall in scoring this season at 112.4PPG, 8th in offensive efficiency and 5th in pace of play. Phoenix is the 2nd best shooting team in the league at 47.5% and 5th in 3-point percentage at 36.9%. The Suns have some gaudy offensive numbers in recent games with 123 and 133 points in two of their last three games. This total is set slightly higher than league average of 216.8 and our analytics suggest it will be much higher scoring than that. |
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01-08-22 | Oral Roberts -1.5 v. Western Illinois | Top | 87-86 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 44 m | Show |
#665 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oral Roberts -1.5 over Western Illinois, Saturday at 3 PM ET - WIU is improved this year after finishing 7-15 a year ago but much of that is due to an easy schedule (321st SOS). Almost half of their games (7) have come vs teams ranked below 300 or non Division 1 teams. This ORU team will be the highest ranked team WIU has played this season. The Leathernecks are not playing well right now losing 3 straight games, including a 6 points loss vs Nebraska Omaha who is ranked as the 338th team in the nation (out of 358 teams). We have a very solid comparison point with these 2 teams as they’ve each played the same 3 conference teams in their last 3 Summit League games. Those teams were Denver (ORU won by 17 / WIU won by 4 on OT), Nebraska Omaha (ORU won by 35 points / WIU lost by 6), and St Thomas (ORU won by 15 / WIU lost by 13). This is a terrible match up for Western as Oral Roberts loves to shoot the 3 and they are solid at doing so (38% which is 24th nationally) while the Leathernecks are really bad at defending the arc (324th nationally). On the other end of the court Western Illinois also gets a bunch of their points from beyond the arc but the Golden Eagles are one of the best at defending the 3 point line allowing just 29% (46th nationally). ORU has 6 losses on the season, however 5 of those came vs teams ranked inside the top 100. WIU, on the other hand, has played only 1 team all season ranked inside the top 100 (21 point loss). We’ll lay this small number on the road. |
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01-07-22 | Spurs v. 76ers -7.5 | Top | 100-119 | Win | 100 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Philadelphia 76ers -7.5 over San Antonio Spurs, 7:10 PM ET - The Spurs are not in a good situation here playing their 5th straight road game and are short-handed without their second and third leading scorers, Kelson Johnson and Derrick White. Also out tonight are key reserves Vassell and Young. The 76ers have a few players out too but have their key players available in Embiid, Harris and Curry. The Sixers are 7-8 SU at home but come into this game having won 5 straight games. Their most recent home game was a 20-point blowout win over the Rockets. San Antonio is 8-12 SU on the road this season with a negative differential of minus -0.6PPG. In their last five games the 76ers have some impressive numbers with the 9th best defensive efficiency and the 4th best offensive efficiency rating. In comparison the Spurs are 27th in OEFF their last five games, 17th in DEFF. Lastly, the 76ers have a +12.8PPG average differential their last 5 games and our analytics say that will be the margin here. Bet Philly |
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01-06-22 | Pistons v. Grizzlies OVER 217.5 | Top | 88-118 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 60 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 217.5 Detroit Pistons vs Memphis Grizzlies, 8:10 PM ET - The Pistons are one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA and it showed last night when they allowed 140 points last night to Charlotte. On the season the Pistons allowed 111PPG, are the 29th worst FG% defense, 28th defending the 3-points line and 24th in defensive rebounding. Memphis is quietly putting together a fantastic season having won 6 straight to improve to 25-14 on the year. The Grizzlies are 5th in scoring at 111.3PPG but have averaged over 115PPG in their last six games. Detroit is the 10th fastest paced team in the NBA, the Grizzlies are 12th so expect plenty of possessions to push this game over the Total. |
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01-06-22 | Ohio State v. Indiana -2 | Top | 51-67 | Win | 100 | 20 h 46 m | Show |
#750 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Indiana -2 over Ohio State, Thursday at 7 PM ET - This is a huge early season game for the Hoosiers. They currently sit with a 1-2 Big 10 record and they can’t afford to drop to 1-3 with a home loss. OSU is 3-0 on the season but they are fortunate to be in that spot as they nearly lost @ Nebraska on Sunday. The Huskers, rated 141st nationally and the only Big 10 team outside the top 100, led OSU by 5 points with 35 seconds remaining in the game on Sunday. A late key 3 pointer by OSU and missed FT’s by Nebraska sent the game to OT where the Buckeyes won. OSU shot nearly 50% from 3 point land (16 of 34) and still struggled to put away the worst team in the Big 10 on the road. IU will be highly motivated coming off a 3-point loss @ Penn State. Sort of the opposite of the Buckeye win on Sunday, Indiana shot very poorly @ PSU hitting just 39% overall and only 23% from beyond the arc and still had 2 shots in the final 10 seconds to tie the game missing both. IU could easily be undefeated on the season as their 3 losses were all tight road games including a OT loss @ Syracuse and a 5-point loss @ Wisconsin a game they led by 20 points before the Badgers made a furious comeback. The Hoosiers have the best defense in the Big 10 ranking 14th nationally in efficiency, 4th in eFG% allowed and 1st in the nation at defending inside the arc allowing opponents to shoot only 39%. IU is unblemished at home with a 9-0 record and 7 of those wins coming by double digits. A great defense at home in a must win spot has been a solid long term money maker and we’ll jump on the Hoosiers here. |
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01-05-22 | Texas Tech v. Iowa State -1 | Top | 47-51 | Win | 100 | 23 h 10 m | Show |
#728 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Iowa State -1 over Texas Tech, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - ISU is coming off their first loss of the season on Saturday getting tripped up at home 77-72 by Baylor – Ken Pom’s #1 rated team. In that game the Cyclones made ONE three pointer in 14 attempts which put them at 7% from beyond the arc. Even with that, they made a nice comeback and nearly took out the Bears. Prior to that loss ISU was 12-0, including 4-0 vs top 50 teams with 3 of those 4 wins coming by double digits vs Iowa, Memphis, and Xavier. Tech has played the 3rd EASIEST schedule in the nation thus far (356th ranked SOS). The Red Raiders have played 3 top 50 teams and they are 1-2 in those games. It’s been almost 3 weeks since they played a team with a pulse which is not ideal. On top of that, they’ve played only one true road game this year – loss at Providence – and that was back on December 1st. If you subtract those 3 top 50 opponents Tech’s average opponent rank is 292nd. Iowa State is a great defensive team ranking 7th in efficiency, 11th in eFG% allowed, 5th in 3 point % allowed, 10th in PPG allowed (57), and 6th in defensive turnover rate. We love good defensive teams at home as a dog or low favorite, especially off a home loss. ISU was terrible last year but their new head coach Otzelberger has total revamped this team with big time transfers from Kansas, Penn State, Minnesota, Washington State and UNLV. The remain undervalued in our opinion and we like them to win this one. |
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01-05-22 | Pistons v. Hornets -10 | Top | 111-140 | Win | 100 | 7 h 47 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Charlotte Hornets -10 over Detroit Pistons, 7:10PM ET - This line looks “fishy” in our opinion as if the oddsmakers are baiting you to bet the Pistons. We won’t bite and will side with the Hornets. Detroit is coming off their biggest win of the season, a road victory at Milwaukee. The young Pistons let down here against a Hornets team off two straight losses. Prior to their most recent losses the Hornets had won three straight including a 24-point home win over the Rockets as an 8-point chalk. Detroit is 3-15 SU on the road this season with a negative differential of minus -11.4PPG. Charlotte is a respectable 9-5 SU at home with a +1.9PPG +/-. Charlotte is 4-0 ATS at home off a loss this year, Detroit is 1-6 ATS off a win. |
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01-04-22 | Spurs v. Raptors -6.5 | Top | 104-129 | Win | 100 | 7 h 49 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Toronto Raptors -6.5 over the San Antonio Spurs, 7:10 PM ET - Our handicapping methods have certainly been altered the past few years as you can’t rely solely on statistics to base your wagers. Much of what you do today has to rely on the lineups and who’s playing on any given night. The Raptors don’t have great overall statistics this season as they’ve been dealing with injuries and covid more so than most teams. They are getting back to full strength, and it’s shown in their play with two straight solid wins over the Clippers and Knicks. San Antonio is dealing with covid and injuries with Doug McDermott and Lonnie Walker IV joining Dejounte Murray in Covid protocols which means the Spurs will be down their 1st, 5th, and 6th leading scorers. The Raptors have been a strong home team in the past and we like them to get a double-digit win here against a depleted Spurs team. |
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01-04-22 | Florida State v. Wake Forest -1 | Top | 54-76 | Win | 100 | 21 h 52 m | Show |
#626 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Wake Forest -1 over Florida State, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Wake will be desperate for a home win after losing 2 straight down to the wire road games. At Louisville last Wednesday, Wake led by 1 with just over a minute remaining and lost by 4 despite shooting just 38% overall, 25% from deep, and making 11 fewer FT’s. At Miami on Saturday the Deacs shot much better but were only awarded 8 FT attempts the entire game while the Canes shot 27 from the line. Despite that WF was down 3 with under 3:00 minutes remaining and lost by 8. Now back at home where they are 7-0 this year and average 84 PPG, we expect them to play very well. They catch FSU off a huge road win @ NC State on Saturday and now playing again on the road just a few days later. They shot lights out (51%) in that 2 point win over NC State which is well above their season average. Even after that effort FSU is still shooting just 43% on the road so expect a big regression here vs a solid Wake defense which has allowed opponents to shoot just 38% here at home. Prior to Saturday’s win, the Noles were 0-3 SU on road games with 2 of those losses coming by double digits. They are now 0-7 ATS their last 7 road games. These 2 met last year @ FSU and a Wake team that was ranked 115th at the time nearly pulled off the upset vs an FSU team that was ranked 15th at the time. The Deacs lost that game in OT. Wake is MUCH better this season and FSU has regressed. We expect the Demon Deacons to pick up a home win on Tuesday. |
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01-03-22 | Jazz -9 v. Pelicans | Top | 115-104 | Win | 100 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Utah Jazz -9 over New Orleans Pelicans, 8:10 PM ET - We like the situation as an elite team like the Jazz are off a loss against one of the leagues weaker teams. Utah has nearly everyone back at full strength but the Pels do not as Ingram and Valanciunas are both doubtful tonight. New Orleans was just a -12.5-point underdog at home to the Bucks and lost by 23 points. Utah is 12-3 SU on the road this season with the best average differential of +11.8PPG. The Jazz have the best offensive efficiency numbers away from home and the 2nd best defensive efficiency numbers. The Pelicans have the 24th worst average +/- at home and 24th in DEFF on their home court. A motivated Jazz team get a 16-point win here. |
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01-02-22 | Pacers v. Cavs UNDER 214.5 | Top | 104-108 | Win | 100 | 9 h 36 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 214.5 Indiana Pacers @ Cleveland Cavaliers, 6:10 PM ET - Both teams are dealing with covid issues or injuries so we don't see either of these teams wanting to get into a track meet here. On the season both have favored lower paced games with the Pacer being the 24th slowest paced team in the NBA, the Cavs are 19th. The Cavaliers have the 3rd best defensive efficiency numbers in the league, holding opponents to 1.051-points per possession. The Pacers have been known for their defense but have slipped this year ranking 19th in DEFF but they do hold opponents to 107.6PPG. Indiana is an average shooting team overall but one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the league. Cleveland is better offensively but they're also missing several key players from their rotation. The Pacers are now 11-2 their last 13 road games, while the Cavs are on a 7-2 Under streak as a home favorite. |
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01-02-22 | Illinois State v. Valparaiso OVER 138.5 | Top | 76-81 | Win | 100 | 5 h 38 m | Show |
#767/768 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 138.5 Points – Illinois State vs Valparaiso, Sunday at 2 PM ET - The Illinois State offense has been impressive this season. They rank 26th nationally averaging 81 PPG and they just put up 85 points on Wednesday vs a Wisconsin defense that was allowing just 61 PPG prior to that game. The Redbirds are one of the best 3 point shooting teams in the nation hitting nearly 40% of their triples (10th nationally). They are facing a Valpo defense that ranks 266th at defending the arc. Valpo also shoots the 3 very well (almost 36%) and ISU ranks 296th at defending the triple. Both teams should light it up from deep. Valpo’s overall offensive stats are misleading because they played their first 9 games (minus non division 1 games) without arguably their best scorer Kobe King (Wisconsin transfer). They averaged 66 PPG without King and 74 PPG with him in the line up. Both teams rank inside the top 85 in eFG% offense and outside the top 150 in eFG% defense. ISU has scored at least 74 points in 10 of their last 11 games and they’ve gotten to at least 80 points in 9 of those games. Their games have averaged 157 total points. Valpo games this year have averaged 141 total PPG with King sitting on the bench for most of the season. This one is set too low and we grab the OVER. |
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01-01-22 | Bulls v. Wizards OVER 218.5 | Top | 120-119 | Win | 100 | 7 h 26 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 218.5 Chicago Bulls vs Washington Wizards, 7 PM ET - This number is slightly higher than the league average of 216PPG but we expect it to be much higher scoring than that. The Bulls were scoring at will going into their game last night versus Indiana. Chicago had scored 130+ points in 3 of their prior four games and 113 or more in 5 straight before running into the Pacers. Last night the Bulls shot poorly at 41% which is significantly lower than their season average of 47%. The Bulls will make more shots tonight against a Wizards team that is 16th in opponents FG% defense and 19th in points allowed per game at 108.5. Washington will get their points too with the 7th best shooting offense in the NBA and they have All-Star Bradley Beal back in the lineup after missing a few games with Covid. Don’t be misled by the Wizards defense in their last game against the Cavaliers where they gave up 93-points because the Cavs were short handed. Prior to that game the Wiz had allowed 116 or more points in 7 of their last nine games. The Bulls are 4-1 Over their last five games playing without rest, while Washington Over 5 of six when coming off a win. BET OVER! |
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01-01-22 | Villanova v. Seton Hall +1.5 | Top | 73-67 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 14 m | Show |
#620 ASA TOP PLAY ON Seton Hall +1.5 over Villanova, Saturday at 2 PM ET - The Hall is coming off a loss on Wednesday losing by 5 points @ #21 Providence. The Pirates shot just 39% overall and only 21% from beyond the arc but still had a shot down 3 with less than 30 seconds remaining. They were a bit rusty having not played a game since December 12th so that game should help them here. Nova, on the other hand, has now been off since December 21st and are in a similar situation going on the road for this one. The Cats have not been great on the road this year with a 2-3 SU record. Their road wins have come against teams ranked 250 or lower and their 3 losses have come vs solid competition all in the top 100. Seton Hall absolutely falls into that category ranking 28th in our power ratings. Villanova relies on the 3-point shot almost more than any team in college basketball with over 42% of their points coming from deep (13th most nationally). The problem here is the Cats have been a really poor shooting team on the road hitting only 29% of their 3-point shots and they are facing a SH defense that ranks 7th nationally defending the arc allowing 25%. This is a good match up for the undervalued Pirates playing at home. The dog has covered 5 of 6 in this series and we like Seton Hall to win this one. |
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12-31-21 | Hawks v. Cavs UNDER 217.5 | Top | 121-118 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 51 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 217.5 Atlanta Hawks vs Cleveland Cavaliers, 6:40PM ET - Both teams are dealing with the “omnicold” protocols with players out which has left each team with shortened rotations. These two teams prefer to play slower to begin with as they rank 19th and 20th in pace of play. Now with limited regular players you can bet neither team will be anxious to get into a run and shoot game here. The Hawks just played two higher scoring games against the Bulls who are one of the highest scoring teams in the league at 110PPG. Prior to those two games the Hawks had stayed Under in 3 straight games with less than 202 total points scored in each. Cleveland is really hurting at the point guard position, and it has led to some lower scoring games. The Cavs have totaled less than 215 points in 6 of their last seven games. When these two teams met in October at full strength, they combined for 196 total points which was the 5th straight Under in this series. We are betting that trend continues here. |
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12-30-21 | Cavs v. Wizards -3.5 | Top | 93-110 | Win | 100 | 7 h 54 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Washington Wizards -3.5 over Cleveland Cavaliers, 7:10 PM ET - This is a wager on the team with “less attrition” as the Cavaliers are decimated at the point guard position right now. The Cavs lost Sexton early on but didn’t miss a beat with Garland and Rubio filling in, but now both of those players are out now too. Cleveland is also missing Osman and Allen, both key rotation players. The Wizard are also shorthanded, but they may be getting Bradley Beal back tonight if he clears protocols. Without Beal the Wizard battled in Miami the other night getting key contributions from Gafford, Kuzma, Dinwiddie and Bertans who all scored 16+ points. Washington has been a solid bet on team at home off a loss this season with a 3-1 ATS record. Cleveland on the road off a loss is 1-3 ATS. The bet here is Washington. |
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12-29-21 | Tennessee v. Alabama -2 | Top | 68-73 | Win | 100 | 23 h 33 m | Show |
#698 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Alabama -2 over Tennessee, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - Love this spot at home for the talented Crimson Tide. They are coming off an upset loss at the hands of Davidson. They were 9 point favorites in that game and lost by 1 point. Meanwhile UT is off a huge upset win over Arizona who came into the game 11-0 on the season. That game was at home for the Vols and now they play just their 2nd true road game of the season. Alabama’s schedule has prepared them for these type of games as they’ve already faced 8 top 100 teams this season. They have wins over both Gonzaga and Houston who both rank higher than this Tennessee team. The Vols have played 5 top 100 teams this year and they are 3-2 SU in those games. The remainder of their wins come vs teams that rank 150 or lower. Tennessee’s defense has been very good this year but this will be the best offense they’ve faced so far (Bama 9th in offensive efficiency) and again the game is on the road. Bama shoots a lot of 3’s and if there is a weakness for UT’s defense it’s defending the arc (91st nationally). The Vols also get to the line very rarely generating just 11% of their points from the stripe which is 352nd in the nation. Tough to win on the road in a game like this if they don’t get some significant points from the stripe. Bama has Won 22 of their last 25 home games and they get another here. |
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12-28-21 | Cavs -4.5 v. Pelicans | Top | 104-108 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 39 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Cleveland Cavaliers -4.5 @ New Orleans Pelicans, 8:10 PM ET - Both teams are missing a few key players with either injuries or Covid protocols, but the Pelicans losses are more significant at the moment. The Cavs have had a few games to adjust to without key personnel and the Pels have not. The line on this game is telling us as much and you shouldn’t be scared off by this number considering the Cavs recent success. Cleveland's past 11 wins have come by at least 10 points, and the Cavs lead the Eastern Conference with 15 double-digit victories. Cleveland has the 3rd best average point differential on the road this season at +5.7PPG. The Cavaliers are one of very few teams in the NBA that can boast a top 10 offensive and defensive efficiency on the road this season. Speaking of defense, the Pelicans don’t play any. New Orleans is 24th in DEFF ratings allowing 1.123-points per possession. They are 23rd or worse in 3-point field goal percentage defense, 26th in FG% D and 27th in points allowed per game. Cleveland can pull another double digit road win here. |
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12-28-21 | Notre Dame v. Pittsburgh +4 | Top | 68-67 | Win | 100 | 22 h 17 m | Show |
#612 ASA TOP PLAY ON Pittsburgh +4 over Notre Dame, Tuesday at 8 PM ET - Pitt struggled early in the season losing 6 of their first 8 games but they’ve righted the ship. It also wasn’t as bad early on as it may have seemed with 4 of those losses coming vs top 100 teams including two 1-point losses vs Minnesota & Virginia. The Panthers have now won 3 of their last 4 including an impressive road win @ St Johns. Their defense has picked up holding 3 of their last 4 opponents to 0.90 PPP or less and 5 of their last 6 opponents to less than 60 points. Notre Dame has underperformed all season with just a 2-8 ATS record. They are just 1-5 SU away from home (road or neutral) and their only win was vs Chaminade. In games away from home the Irish are hitting just 42% of their shots while allowing 50%. Last year Pitt was favored at home in this match up 3.5 points and now they are getting 4 points. Too big of a swing in the spread and we really like the way Pitt is playing right now. The dog is 10-3-1 ATS in this series and we like the home puppy getting points here. |
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12-27-21 | Jazz v. Spurs OVER 229 | Top | 110-104 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 229 Utah Jazz at San Antonio Spurs, 8:40 PM ET - This is a big number, but our model suggests it’s not high enough. Scoring is trending up in the NBA right now and we see this game finishing with more than 232 total points. These two teams recently met and combined for 254 points. There were 193 field goal attempts in the game which is significantly higher than the league average of 176. The Spurs are 6th in pace of play while the Jazz are 11th so we know we will get an up-and-down type of game. The Jazz hold the highest offensive efficiency in the NBA while the Spurs rank 11th. San Antonio has scored 112 or more points in 9 straight games and are coming off a 138-point outing against the Lakers and 144 versus the Pistons. Utah has scored 118 or more points in 7 of their last nine games and 123+ points in 5 of nine. The Jazz are on a 13-4-1 Over run, Spurs Over in 21 of their last 28 at home. The Jazz are without Donovan here and the Spurs are minus Murray but we still like these two teams to score a ton of points here. |
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12-25-21 | Warriors v. Suns -5.5 | Top | 116-107 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 57 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* PHOENIX SUNS -5.5 over Golden State Warriors, 5:10 PM ET - This is certainly a contrarian play as this number doesn’t look right at all. Consider this, the Warriors have been an underdog twice this season. Once recently in Toronto when they sat their starting lineup and again the first game of the season versus the Lakers. The Warriors were recently a 7-point favorite at home against the Suns and won by 22. Phoenix didn’t have Devin Booker in that game and they shot well below their season average by hitting just 38% from the field. The two teams had met in Phoenix prior to that game with the Suns winning by 8-points as a -3.5-point chalk. Phoenix has the 2nd best home point differential in the NBA at +10.8PPG while the Warriors have a +3.7-point differential on the road. The home team has won 5 straight in this rivalry and all five of those wins came by 6 or more points. Merry Christmas from ASA. |
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ASA Basketball Top Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-15-22 | Celtics v. 76ers +3.5 | Top | 135-87 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 39 m | Show |
02-15-22 | Michigan State v. Penn State +3 | Top | 58-62 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
02-14-22 | Spurs +3.5 v. Bulls | Top | 109-120 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 26 m | Show |
02-14-22 | Virginia v. Virginia Tech OVER 118.5 | Top | 53-62 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 0 m | Show |
02-13-22 | Wolves -5.5 v. Pacers | Top | 129-120 | Win | 100 | 5 h 41 m | Show |
02-13-22 | Marshall v. UTEP -6 | Top | 88-79 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 10 m | Show |
02-12-22 | Clippers v. Mavs UNDER 216 | Top | 99-97 | Win | 100 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
02-12-22 | Vanderbilt +12.5 v. Tennessee | Top | 64-73 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
02-12-22 | Samford v. East Tennessee State OVER 150 | Top | 77-73 | Push | 0 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
02-11-22 | Hornets v. Pistons OVER 226.5 | Top | 141-119 | Win | 100 | 7 h 13 m | Show |
02-11-22 | Detroit v. Youngstown State -115 | Top | 69-82 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
02-10-22 | Bucks v. Suns -3 | Top | 107-131 | Win | 100 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
02-10-22 | Florida International v. Marshall -4.5 | Top | 72-71 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 29 m | Show |
02-09-22 | Tennessee v. Mississippi State +1.5 | Top | 72-63 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 60 m | Show |
02-09-22 | Bulls -120 v. Hornets | Top | 121-109 | Win | 100 | 7 h 21 m | Show |
02-08-22 | Rockets v. Pelicans UNDER 228.5 | Top | 97-110 | Win | 100 | 10 h 55 m | Show |
02-08-22 | Marquette +7 v. Connecticut | Top | 72-80 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
02-07-22 | Kansas v. Texas +1 | Top | 76-79 | Win | 100 | 24 h 32 m | Show |
02-07-22 | Raptors v. Hornets OVER 224 | Top | 116-101 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 32 m | Show |
02-06-22 | Hawks v. Mavs OVER 221 | Top | 94-103 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 46 m | Show |
02-06-22 | Nevada v. San Diego State -12.5 | Top | 63-65 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 5 m | Show |
02-05-22 | Heat v. Hornets UNDER 227.5 | Top | 104-86 | Win | 100 | 8 h 1 m | Show |
02-05-22 | Oregon State v. Colorado -9 | Top | 63-86 | Win | 100 | 18 h 4 m | Show |
02-04-22 | San Diego State v. Colorado State -3 | Top | 57-58 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 0 m | Show |
02-04-22 | Hawks v. Raptors UNDER 219 | Top | 114-125 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 20 m | Show |
02-03-22 | Washington v. California -2 | Top | 84-63 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
02-03-22 | Heat v. Spurs OVER 221 | Top | 112-95 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 51 m | Show |
02-02-22 | Blazers v. Lakers -3.5 | Top | 94-99 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
02-02-22 | Purdue v. Minnesota +10.5 | Top | 88-73 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
02-02-22 | St. Louis v. George Mason +2 | Top | 92-90 | Push | 0 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
02-01-22 | Nuggets v. Wolves -4 | Top | 115-130 | Win | 100 | 7 h 16 m | Show |
02-01-22 | South Carolina v. Mississippi State -7.5 | Top | 64-78 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
01-31-22 | TCU v. Oklahoma UNDER 128 | Top | 72-63 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
01-31-22 | Blazers -3.5 v. Thunder | Top | 81-98 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 1 m | Show |
01-30-22 | Mavs v. Magic UNDER 211.5 | Top | 108-110 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 43 m | Show |
01-30-22 | Blazers v. Bulls -5 | Top | 116-130 | Win | 100 | 4 h 22 m | Show |
01-30-22 | Indiana State v. Bradley -7.5 | Top | 52-67 | Win | 100 | 21 h 23 m | Show |
01-29-22 | Wizards +5.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 95-115 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 14 m | Show |
01-29-22 | Middle Tennessee v. Western Kentucky -5 | Top | 93-85 | Loss | -108 | 19 h 14 m | Show |
01-28-22 | Bulls +1.5 v. Spurs | Top | 122-131 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 14 m | Show |
01-28-22 | Rhode Island +6.5 v. Dayton | Top | 51-53 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
01-27-22 | Loyola-Chicago v. Southern Illinois +6.5 | Top | 44-39 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
01-27-22 | Lakers v. 76ers UNDER 218.5 | Top | 87-105 | Win | 100 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
01-26-22 | San Diego State v. Utah State +1.5 | Top | 57-75 | Win | 100 | 8 h 39 m | Show |
01-26-22 | Mavs v. Blazers UNDER 217 | Top | 132-112 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
01-26-22 | Grizzlies -4.5 v. Spurs | Top | 118-110 | Win | 100 | 6 h 4 m | Show |
01-25-22 | Mavs v. Warriors UNDER 210 | Top | 92-130 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
01-25-22 | Maryland v. Rutgers UNDER 132.5 | Top | 68-60 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
01-24-22 | Jazz v. Suns -9 | Top | 109-115 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
01-24-22 | South Dakota v. Western Illinois -6 | Top | 75-72 | Loss | -108 | 21 h 0 m | Show |
01-23-22 | Hawks v. Hornets -3 | Top | 113-91 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 21 m | Show |
01-23-22 | Xavier v. Marquette +2 | Top | 64-75 | Win | 100 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
01-22-22 | Pacers v. Suns UNDER 220 | Top | 103-113 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
01-22-22 | Florida State v. Miami-FL -2.5 | Top | 61-60 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 40 m | Show |
01-21-22 | Pistons v. Jazz -13.5 | Top | 101-111 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 1 m | Show |
01-21-22 | Evansville v. Illinois State -7.5 | Top | 56-94 | Win | 100 | 5 h 29 m | Show |
01-20-22 | North Dakota v. Oral Roberts -20.5 | Top | 76-80 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
01-20-22 | Pelicans v. Knicks UNDER 210 | Top | 102-91 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
01-19-22 | Pistons v. Kings -5.5 | Top | 133-131 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 37 m | Show |
01-19-22 | Iowa v. Rutgers +3.5 | Top | 46-48 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
01-18-22 | Tennessee -6.5 v. Vanderbilt | Top | 68-60 | Win | 100 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
01-17-22 | Wyoming v. Nevada -2.5 | Top | 77-67 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 52 m | Show |
01-17-22 | Raptors v. Heat -4 | Top | 99-104 | Win | 100 | 20 h 16 m | Show |
01-16-22 | Warriors v. Wolves OVER 216 | Top | 99-119 | Win | 100 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
01-15-22 | Oregon v. USC -6 | Top | 79-69 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 22 m | Show |
01-15-22 | 76ers v. Heat OVER 209 | Top | 109-98 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
01-15-22 | Notre Dame v. Virginia Tech -6 | Top | 73-79 | Push | 0 | 20 h 30 m | Show |
01-14-22 | VCU +3 v. St Bonaventure | Top | 53-73 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
01-14-22 | Raptors v. Pistons OVER 213.5 | Top | 87-103 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
01-13-22 | Clippers v. Pelicans UNDER 215 | Top | 89-113 | Win | 100 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
01-13-22 | Florida Atlantic v. Middle Tennessee -3.5 | Top | 57-70 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
01-12-22 | Nets +2.5 v. Bulls | Top | 138-112 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
01-12-22 | Minnesota v. Michigan State UNDER 139.5 | Top | 69-71 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
01-11-22 | Suns -3.5 v. Raptors | Top | 99-95 | Win | 100 | 20 h 30 m | Show |
01-10-22 | North Dakota State v. Denver +5 | Top | 87-69 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
01-10-22 | 76ers -10.5 v. Rockets | Top | 111-91 | Win | 100 | 8 h 58 m | Show |
01-09-22 | Wisconsin v. Maryland +1.5 | Top | 70-69 | Win | 100 | 22 h 24 m | Show |
01-09-22 | Wolves v. Rockets OVER 229.5 | Top | 141-123 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
01-08-22 | St. Mary's v. BYU UNDER 132.5 | Top | 43-52 | Win | 100 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
01-08-22 | Heat v. Suns OVER 216.5 | Top | 123-100 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
01-08-22 | Oral Roberts -1.5 v. Western Illinois | Top | 87-86 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 44 m | Show |
01-07-22 | Spurs v. 76ers -7.5 | Top | 100-119 | Win | 100 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
01-06-22 | Pistons v. Grizzlies OVER 217.5 | Top | 88-118 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 60 m | Show |
01-06-22 | Ohio State v. Indiana -2 | Top | 51-67 | Win | 100 | 20 h 46 m | Show |
01-05-22 | Texas Tech v. Iowa State -1 | Top | 47-51 | Win | 100 | 23 h 10 m | Show |
01-05-22 | Pistons v. Hornets -10 | Top | 111-140 | Win | 100 | 7 h 47 m | Show |
01-04-22 | Spurs v. Raptors -6.5 | Top | 104-129 | Win | 100 | 7 h 49 m | Show |
01-04-22 | Florida State v. Wake Forest -1 | Top | 54-76 | Win | 100 | 21 h 52 m | Show |
01-03-22 | Jazz -9 v. Pelicans | Top | 115-104 | Win | 100 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
01-02-22 | Pacers v. Cavs UNDER 214.5 | Top | 104-108 | Win | 100 | 9 h 36 m | Show |
01-02-22 | Illinois State v. Valparaiso OVER 138.5 | Top | 76-81 | Win | 100 | 5 h 38 m | Show |
01-01-22 | Bulls v. Wizards OVER 218.5 | Top | 120-119 | Win | 100 | 7 h 26 m | Show |
01-01-22 | Villanova v. Seton Hall +1.5 | Top | 73-67 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 14 m | Show |
12-31-21 | Hawks v. Cavs UNDER 217.5 | Top | 121-118 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 51 m | Show |
12-30-21 | Cavs v. Wizards -3.5 | Top | 93-110 | Win | 100 | 7 h 54 m | Show |
12-29-21 | Tennessee v. Alabama -2 | Top | 68-73 | Win | 100 | 23 h 33 m | Show |
12-28-21 | Cavs -4.5 v. Pelicans | Top | 104-108 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 39 m | Show |
12-28-21 | Notre Dame v. Pittsburgh +4 | Top | 68-67 | Win | 100 | 22 h 17 m | Show |
12-27-21 | Jazz v. Spurs OVER 229 | Top | 110-104 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
12-25-21 | Warriors v. Suns -5.5 | Top | 116-107 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 57 m | Show |