Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-28-23 | Knicks v. Nets UNDER 226.5 | Top | 115-122 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 30 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Under 226.5 NY Knicks @ Brooklyn Nets – 5:40 PM ET - This one should be a tight defensive battle with both teams struggling to score. New York is coming off a game against a similar team to the Nets in the Celtics. That game had 220 total points at the end of regulation. Brooklyn had been playing fantastic defense up until allowing Philly and Detroit to each score 130+ against them. Prior to the two games against the 76ers and Pistons the Nets had allowed an average of 108.6PPG to their previous 8 opponents. Both teams are average in scoring with the Nets averaging 114.3PPG, the Knicks are at 114.2. But both teams rank 6th and 11th in points allowed per game defensively. These two rivals have totaled 226 or less points in 6 straight meetings and 9 of the last ten. Bet the Under in this one. |
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01-28-23 | Illinois v. Wisconsin +2 | Top | 61-51 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 10 m | Show |
#658 ASA TOP PLAY ON Wisconsin +2 over Illinois, Saturday at 2 PM ET - This is a must win home game for the Badgers. They have lost 5 of their last 6 games to drop onto the NCAA bubble. On the other hand, the Illini have won 5 of 6 so this is a buy low – sell high situation with Wisconsin at home getting points. The Badgers losing stretch began on January 7th when they lost by 10 to this Illinois team on the road. They were without their best overall frontcourt player, Tyler Wahl, in that game and he has since returned. The Illini shot 59% from beyond the arc in that game which is well above their 32% mark on the season (237th nationally). Wisconsin, who is the much better 3 point shooting team (56th nationally) only made 28% of their 3’s in that game. During the Illini’s current winning stretch, they’ve played only 2 road games vs the 2 worst teams in the Big 10, winning both @ Minnesota and @ Nebraska. Prior to that they had lost their 2 other conference road games @ Northwestern and @ Maryland. UW was beaten badly @ Maryland on Wednesday night but that was a very tough spot for this team after having to reschedule their previous game vs Northwestern from Saturday to Monday evening due to the Cats Covid issue. They were also missing their top perimeter defender and starting guard Klesmit for both of those games but he has been practicing and it looks like he’ll return so Wisconsin should finally be at full strength. Their only conference home loss was vs Michigan State, a game Wisconsin led late but lost by 4, and that was without Wahl in the lineup. The host really needs this win as they are on the road for 3 of their next 4 games. We’ll call for Wisconsin to get the win at home. |
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01-27-23 | Magic +7.5 v. Heat | Top | 105-110 | Win | 100 | 18 h 29 m | Show |
ASA Top Play On 10* ORLANDO MAGIC +7.5 vs. Miami Heat – 8:10 PM ET - The Magic continue to reward their backers with a 14-7 ATS record when getting more than +7.5-points this season. Miami has struggled in the role of a favorite with a 5-10 ATS mark when laying -5 or more points. Overall, the Heat are 9-15-1 ATS at home with a negative differential of minus -1.4PPG. Orlando is on a perfect 6-0 ATS run when playing on the road against teams with a winning home record greater than .600. Miami could let down here as they are coming off a huge home win over a big rival in the Boston Celtics. Orlando has won 3 of their last four games and 2 straight. Orlando has covered 6 of the last eight in the Florida rivalry and is a live dog here. |
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01-27-23 | Detroit v. Robert Morris -2.5 | Top | 77-85 | Win | 100 | 18 h 51 m | Show |
#874 ASA TOP PLAY ON Robert Morris -2.5 over Detroit, Friday at 7 PM ET - Robert Morris and Detroit are tied in the Horizon League with 4-6 records. RM has played the toughest schedule in the conference with 7 of their 10 games thus far coming on the road. The Colonials haven’t been home since January 9th and they are coming off a 4 game road trip. Their most recent game was last Saturday so they’ve had a week off to rest and prepare for a rare home game. RM’s only conference home loss was vs Cleveland State, one of two teams in the Horizon ranked inside the top 200. Detroit, despite playing an easier schedule (7th in the league) only has 4 wins as well. The Titans have lost 5 of their last 6 road games with their last and that win was vs IUPUI, the worst team in the Horizon and one of the worst in the country. These 2 teams just met on January 15th in Detroit and the Titans came away with an 87-75 win. The host Titans shot lights out in that game hitting 53% overall and 59% from beyond the arc. We don’t expect another effort like that tonight on the road where they shoot just 39% on the season. Robert Morris has a huge edge defensively here ranking as the 4th best team in the league in defensive efficiency and #1 in the conference defending inside the arc. Detroit ranks outside the top 300 nationally in almost every key defensive category. While RM has had a week off to get ready for this revenger, Detroit played Saturday & Monday so tonight will be their 3rd game in 7 days. We like Robert Morris as a small home favorite in this one. |
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01-26-23 | Mavs v. Suns -120 | Top | 99-95 | Loss | -120 | 21 h 40 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* PHOENIX SUNS -120 vs Dallas Mavericks, 10 PM ET - Current early line is -1.5 but the money line is available at -120 so that is the recommended value option here. We like the hot Suns here at home as they have won 4 straight games and are figuring out rotations around their injured players. Dallas is struggling right now with just 2 wins in their last eight games and have lost 2 in a row. The Mavs have not been good on the road this season with a 8-15 SU record and a negative differential of minus -4.5PPG. Even with their injuries the Suns are still 18-7 SU at home this season and plus +6PPG. The Mavs have the more efficient offense on the season ranking 5th compared to the Phoenix who ranks 14th. Defensively though it’s not as close with the Suns ranking 10th in DEFF compared to the Mavs who rank 26th or near the bottom of the league. In their last five games the Suns defense is allowing just 1.084-points per possession which is best in the NBA over that span of games. The home team has won both meetings this season and 8 of the last nine between these two teams. We like Phoenix at home in this one. |
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01-26-23 | South Dakota v. Western Illinois -5 | Top | 72-75 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 50 m | Show |
#754 ASA TOP PLAY ON Western Illinois -5 over South Dakota, Thursday at 7 PM ET - Revenger for WIU here who played their worst conference game this season @ South Dakota which was a 17 point loss. In that first meeting at the end of December WIU made only 39% of their overall shots and just 17% from beyond the arc. That is well below their season averages of 46% and 32% respectively. Since that loss, Western Illinois has played their best ball of the year with a 4-2 record. South Dakota, on the other hand, is 2-3 since that win. The Coyotes are just 4-4 Summit League play despite facing the easiest conference schedule thus far. They are 1-2 on the road in conference play with their only win coming by 2 points @ North Dakota who is the 2nd worst team in the Summit League. South Dakota is just 1-6 SU on the road this season losing by an average of 17 PPG while averaging only 55 PPG. Western Illinois is 9-2 at home on the year winning by an average of 13 PPG while averaging 82 PPG on offense. South Dakota is coming off a 3 game home stand in which they won only 1 game vs Nebraska Omaha, the lowest rated team in the Summit. WIU has won 4 of their last 5 with their only loss during that stretch coming vs Oral Roberts who is by far the best team in the conference (only top 100 team in the league). South Dakota has scored 62, 61, and 45 points in their 3 conference road games while WIU has topped 70 points in 4 of their 5 home games. We like the revenge angle and we don’t think South Dakota can keep up offensively in this game. Lay the points. |
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01-25-23 | Raptors v. Kings -3 | Top | 113-95 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 2 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Sacramento Kings -3 vs Toronto Raptors, 10 PM ET - The Kings are quietly sitting 3rd in the Western Conference at 27-19 and continue to fly under the radar. Sacramento is 16-10 SU at home with a +/- of +6.6PPG which is the 6th best average in the NBA. Toronto is 6-15 SU away from home this season with an average Margin of Victory of minus -2.2PPG. The Raptors are 1-3 ATS their last four on the road. You’ll also be surprised to know the Kings have been solid ATS as a favorite this season. When laying less than double-digits the Kings have rewarded backers with a 14-8 ATS record. Sacramento is the #1 rated offensive efficiency team at home this season at 1.227-points per possession, whereas the Raptors rank 15th on the road in OEFF. The Raptors do hold an edge defensively but it’s not as great a difference as the offensive numbers that favor the Kings. Sacramento is 5-1 SU their last six at home and the five wins came by 21.6PPG. We like them here minus the short number. |
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01-25-23 | Grizzlies v. Warriors UNDER 245.5 | Top | 120-122 | Win | 100 | 9 h 47 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 245.5 Memphis Grizzlies @ Golden State Warriors, 10 PM ET - The Warriors have put up some big scores in recent games, but they came against bad defensive teams. Today they face the #1 rated defensive efficiency team in the Grizzlies who allow just 1.099-points per possession. The Warriors have faced some similar defensive teams in recent games (Cavs, Celtics, Bulls and Suns) and failed to top 120 points in any of those games. Golden State has scored more than 124 points against the Grizzlies just 1 time in their last 10 meetings. Memphis is coming off a horrible defensive showing against the Kings who scored 133-points versus them so expect a much better effort here. Memphis doesn’t have great overall offensive efficiency numbers on the season and in their last five games they have dipped dramatically in OEFF top 1.127PPP which is 22nd in the NBA. When these same two teams met on Dec 25th the O/U for that game was 233 and they scored 232 total points. These two teams have a strong dislike for each other stemming from the playoffs last season, so we expect both to ratchet up their defenses tonight. |
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01-25-23 | Northwestern v. Nebraska UNDER 130.5 | Top | 78-63 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 42 m | Show |
#729/730 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 130.5 Points – Northwestern vs Nebraska, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - Defense is absolutely the strength of both teams in this match up. NW ranks 19th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency and Nebraska ranks 35th in that category. That Cats allow just 61 PPG (15th nationally) and the Huskers are giving up only 67 PPG. Both are slower paced as well ranking outside the top 230 in adjusted tempo. The offenses are another story in this match up. The rank 235th (Nebraska) and 340th (NW) in eFG% along with each ranking outside the top 275 in 3 point shooting percentage. The Huskers rank dead last in 3 point % in Big 10 play (29%) and Northwestern is 9th hitting only 33%. Overall in Big 10 play the Wildcats rank last in FG% and Nebraska steps in at 11th in that statistic. On top of that, the strength of each defense matches up very well with the opposing offense. Despite not shooting 3’s very well, NW scores over 34% of their points from deep (91st most nationally) but Nebraska is very good a defending the arc allowing 32% shooting by opponents. The Huskers, on the other hand, shoot very few 3’s scoring almost 58% of their points inside the arc and the Wildcats are #1 nationally in 2 point FG% allowed at 41%. These 2 have combined to play 38 games so far this season and the Under has a record of 26-11-1 in those games. Another Big 10 low scoring, grinder. |
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01-24-23 | Hornets v. Suns UNDER 227 | Top | 97-128 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 227 Charlotte Hornets @ Phoenix Suns, 9:10 PM ET - This line has already dropped from the opening number of 231 but there is still enough value to be on the Under. Charlotte played last night in Utah and lost 102-120. When playing without rest this season their games have averaged 219 total points. Charlotte is one of the worst offensive teams in the NBA this season averaging 1.102-points per possession. In fact, only the Rockets are worse in that category. The Bugs struggle to score with an offense that is 28th in overall FG% at 45.2% and worse yet when shooting from deep, ranking 30th in 3PT%. You may be surprised to know the Suns aren’t great offensively either. Phoenix is 20th in scoring at 112.6PPG and 22nd in overall FG%. They rank 14th in OEFF at 1.140PPP. This line is higher than it should be as a result of the Suns playing 5 straight games against either fast paced or high scoring teams. Charlotte is 10th in pace of play on the season but in their last five games they are playing much slower at 98.8 possessions per game. Both teams have multiple key injuries and will struggle offensively tonight. The Suns recently played Indiana at home, who is similar to the Hornets, and that game finished with 219 total points. We like the Suns to set a slow tempo tonight and a tired Charlotte team will oblige and play at their pace which leads to a low scoring game. |
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01-24-23 | Fresno State v. Boise State -10 | Top | 53-63 | Push | 0 | 20 h 17 m | Show |
#640 ASA TOP PLAY ON Boise State -10 over Fresno State, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - This one sets up very nicely for the superior team Boise State. The Broncos are coming off an OT loss on Friday night @ New Mexico. Fresno is coming off a win as a home dog beating UNLV on Saturday which gives Boise an extra day to get ready for this one. The Broncos entered Friday’s game @ New Mexico on a 5 game winning streak and they had won 14 of their previous 16 before that loss. At home they’ve been dominant to say the least winning 21 of their last 23 games at Extra Mile Arena. Their PPG margin this season is +12 and at home that jumps to +18 per game. They are averaging 77 PPG at home and we just don’t see Fresno keeping up here. The Bulldogs are one of the lowest scoring teams in the nation averaging only 61 PPG (356th nationally). They don’t make many 3’s (325th in 3 point %) and don’t get the FT line very often. We don’t see them getting into the 60’s in this game vs a Boise State defense that ranks 9th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency and 20th in eFG% defense. In home games they are allowing just 58 PPG on 39% shooting. Fresno’s 3 road games in Mountain West play have all been losses by 10, 13, and 22 points and Boise State will be the highest rated team they’ve faced so far this season (25th nationally per KenPom). The Bulldogs leading scorer & rebounder, Moore, is in concussion protocol and may not play here. Even if he does, we like Boise to roll up a big win coming off their loss on Friday night. |
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01-23-23 | New Mexico v. Nevada -3 | Top | 94-97 | Push | 0 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
#874 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Nevada -3 over New Mexico, Monday at 9 PM ET - Nevada is 9-0 at home and their head coach, Steve Alford who was the head man at New Mexico from 2007 – 2013, has never lost to the Lobos since taking over at Nevada (6-0 record). The Wolfpack have had a full week off to rest and prepare for this game while New Mexico is coming off a huge OT win at home vs Boise on Friday night. That was a huge, come from behind win for the Lobos that pushed them into a tie for 2nd place in the MWC with Boise State, Utah State, and this Nevada team. The Wolfpack have played the toughest schedule thus far in league play and the 2nd most difficult overall schedule (29th nationally) of any team in the MWC not named San Diego State. Despite playing that very tough schedule, the Wolfpack have a very good 15-5 record with all of their losses coming vs top 100 teams on the road (or neutral). Their average margin of victory at home this season is +15 PPG and they are holding their opponents to just 62 PPG at Lawler Events Center. If Nevada needs to salt this game away with FT’s late, they are the 8th best FT shooting team in the nation hitting almost 80% as a team. UNM is 2-1 on the road in Mountain West play with an impressive win @ San Diego State with the Aztecs making only 25% of their 3’s and 52% of their FT’s in that loss. Their other 2 conference road games were a loss @ Fresno State who has a 7-11 record and is the 2nd lowest rated team in the league and a 1 point win @ Wyoming who is 6-13 and rated as the worst team in the MWC. Nevada has beaten New Mexico 8 straight times at home with the Lobos last win here coming in 2016. The Wolfpack are 9-1-1 ATS their last 11 home games overall dating back to last year and the favorite in this series has covered 6 of the last 7. Lay it with Nevada. |
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01-23-23 | Wolves v. Rockets +5.5 | Top | 114-119 | Win | 100 | 8 h 12 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* HOUSTON ROCKETS +5.5 vs. Minnesota Timberwolves, 1/23 8:10 PM ET - These same two teams just squared off in Minnesota on Saturday with the Wolves winning by 9-points. Minnesota was favored by 8-points at home and are now laying -5.5 on the road which doesn’t equate. Houston played well the other night but 21-turnovers and 14 missed free throws turned out to be the difference. We expect them to play much better at home and also feel it’s highly unlikely Anthony Edwards can produce another 44-point outing as he did Saturday. On the season the Rockets have an average +- at home of minus -4.5PPG while the Wolves road differential is -2.7PPG. As a home dog this season the Rockets have a 9-8-2 ATS record but more importantly their average loss margin is just -3.6PPG which is obviously within tonight’s number. We like the home dog in this situation and will grab whatever points are available. |
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01-22-23 | Nets v. Warriors -7.5 | Top | 120-116 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -7.5 vs Brooklyn Nets, 8:40 PM ET - Most times ‘revenge’ doesn’t work in the NBA but it’s certainly a factor in this high-profile showdown. In late December the Warriors visited the Nets in Brooklyn and were drilled 143-113. Golden State sat Curry, Wiggins, Thompson and Green in that game who are all available today. At first glance, this looks like a high number but considering the Nets were just plus +5 at Utah, it makes sense a healthy GST team is -7.5. Golden State has been really good at home this year with a 17-5 SU record and an average plus/minus of +6.7PPG. Brooklyn can boast some solid road numbers, but a big portion of those wins came with Kevin Durant on the floor who is out tonight. We will lay the points with Golden State. |
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01-22-23 | Maryland v. Purdue UNDER 134 | Top | 55-58 | Win | 100 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
#835/836 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 134 Points – Maryland vs Purdue, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Purdue’s defense has been lights out in conference play which is bad news for a struggling Maryland offense. The Boilers rank 18th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency and 13th in scoring defense allowing just 60 PPG. In conference play, since their opener vs Minnesota way back on December 4th, the Boilers have since allowed only 58 PPG over their last 7 Big 10 games. Maryland offense has scored 67 points or fewer in 5 of their 7 conference games and in their 4 Big 10 road games the Terps have averaged just 55 PPG. The strength of Maryland’s team is definitely their defense as they rank 37th nationally in both adjusted defensive efficiency and eFG% defense. Neither team shoots the 3 point all that well (both ranked outside the top 200 in 3 point %) and both are very good at defending the arc so we do not foresee many 3 balls today. Both also prevent their opponents from getting to the FT line very often, especially Purdue who ranks #1 nationally in that category. This has been a low scoring series with 6 of the last 7 meetings going Under the total and only 1 of the last 6 meetings has topped 123 total points. Both of these teams have gone Under the total in 8 of their last 10 games and they’ve combined for a record of 26-11 to the Under this season. Another low scoring, Big 10 grinder. |
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01-21-23 | Pacers v. Suns OVER 229.5 | Top | 107-112 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 229.5 Indiana Pacers @ Phoenix Suns, 9:10 PM ET - The Pacers are coming off a game in altitude in Denver last night and also playing their 3rd game in four nights. The Pacers don’t play any defense as they give up 1.151-points per possession which is the 23rd worst number in the NBA. Indiana has allowed over 130 points in 3 of their last four games and 126+ in all four. The Suns are one of the slower paced teams in the league ranking 8th slowest but they are better than average or 14th in offensive efficiency (1.144PPP). Phoenix has slipped defensively themselves this season. Last year the Suns owned the 3rd best defensive efficiency rating allowing 1.074 points per possession. This season they currently sit 14th in the league allowing 1.139PPP. Phoenix just faced the Nets and the two teams combined for 229 total points. Brooklyn doesn’t play near as fast as the Pacers who average 101.3 possessions per game which is 5th fastest. This O/U number is barely higher than the league average and we expect it to get there with ease tonight. |
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01-21-23 | Belmont v. Bradley -6.5 | Top | 78-76 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 10 m | Show |
#696 ASA TOP PLAY ON Bradley -6.5 over Belmont, Saturday at 4 PM ET - Bradley currently sits at 6-3 in the Missouri Valley which is good for 3rd place but they are the best team in the conference by nearly every key metric. They rank #1 in MVC play in adjusted offensive efficiency and adjusted defensive efficiency. The Braves are truly one of the top defensive teams in the country this year allowing just 60 PPG (16th nationally) with opponents making only 39% of their shots (24th). This is a huge home game for the Braves who sit one game behind conference newcomer Belmont. The Bruins are tied for 1st place with Southern Illinois at 7-2. They’ve also played the easiest conference schedule thus far and they are 2-2 on the road in league play. Their 2 conference road wins came @ Valpo and @ Illinois Chicago, 2 of the 3 worst teams in the MVC. Their other 2 road games ended in an 18 point loss @ Southern Illinois and a 10 point loss @ Illinois State. This is a revenger for Bradley who lost @ Belmont in late December blowing a 9 point lead with under 10 minutes remaining in the game in the 3 point loss. The Braves have been fantastic at home with a 10-0 mark winning by an average score of 82-54! Their closest margin of victory at home this year had been 13 points. They have not lost ATS at home this season with their average cover coming by +15 PPG. The Braves have 7 losses on the season, all on the road, and 5 of them have come vs top 100 teams. By comparison, Belmont has played only 1 top 100 team this entire season, and that was Bradley, a game we discussed earlier. We’ll lay it with Bradley at home in revenge mode facing a Belmont team that has played a light schedule to date. |
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01-21-23 | Nebraska v. Penn State -8.5 | Top | 65-76 | Win | 100 | 13 h 27 m | Show |
#670 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Penn State -8.5 over Nebraska, Saturday at 2:15 PM ET - PSU has dropped 3 of their last 4 games to fall to 3-4 in Big 10 play. This team is solid and now in must win mode at home vs one of the conference’s worst teams. Nebraska is improved over previous seasons, but they are still ranked as the 2nd worst team in the Big 10 ahead of only Minnesota. The Huskers are coming off a big home upset vs Ohio State and now are on the road where they are 1-3 in league play with their only win coming @ Minnesota (by far the worst team in the Big 10) by 2 points in OT. Nebraska’s other 3 conference road losses have come by margins of 16, 18, and 18 points. PSU is 9-1 at home this year with their only loss coming at the hands of Michigan State. The Nittany Lions 2 home conference wins have come vs Indiana & Iowa, and their 9 home wins have come by an average of 16 PPG. PSU is one of the better shooting teams in the country ranking 26th in adjusted offensive efficiency, 13th in eFG% and 6th in 3 point FG%. At home they make nearly 50% of their shots and 42% of their 3-pointers. The Lions also turn the ball over just 13% of the time which is #1 nationally limiting opponents extra possessions. With Nebraska averaging only 60 PPG on the road this year, we’re not sure they can keep up with Penn State in a must win spot at home. Lay it. |
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01-20-23 | Clippers -7 v. Spurs | Top | 131-126 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 20 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* LA CLIPPERS -7 vs San Antonio Spurs, 8:10 PM ET - The most important aspect of handicapping the Spurs is knowing who’s playing and who isn’t. Considering they sat Paul George and Kawhi Leonard last game for load management it’s safe to assume both will play tonight. Neither are on the injury report and the line reflects they’ll be in the lineup. The Clippers are off a bad loss to the Jazz and look to rebound here against a Spurs team off a rare win over the Nets. San Antonio is 2-9 SU their last eleven games and 9-16 SU for the year at home. The Spurs have the 2nd worst home point differential in the NBA at minus -7.2PPG. San Antonio is 2nd to last in the league in home defensive efficiency allowing 1.194-points per possession. They aren’t much better offensively, ranking 27th in OEFF when at home. Despite having a very depleted roster for most of the season the Clippers still boast the 9th best defensive efficiency allowing just 1.124PPP. The Spurs were recently +6.5 at home versus the Kings and lost by 13. They were +9 on a neutral court versus the Warriors and lost by 31. The betting action on this game clearly shows sharp money on the Clippers and we’ll follow the money! |
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01-19-23 | Washington State v. Utah -3.5 | Top | 63-77 | Win | 100 | 18 h 19 m | Show |
#816 ASA TOP PLAY 10* Utah -3.5 over Washington State, Thursday at 9 PM ET - The Utes are in desperate need of a win here after losing 3 straight games. Two of those games have come on the road @ UCLA and @ USC. They started the Pac 12 season with 5 straight wins and now sit at 5-3 in league play, still good for 4th place in the conference. WSU, on the other hand, has won 3 straight, so now we have an undervalued home team vs an overvalued road team. Wazzou has played 8 road games this year and lost 7 of those games. The Cougars have struggled big time on offense in their road games this year averaging only 63 PPG on just 38% shooting. WSU also relies very heavily on the 3 point shot with 39% of their points on the season coming from beyond the arc (16th most in the nation). The problem here is that Utah is an outstanding defensive team overall (5th nationally in eFG% defense) and the Utes hare fantastic guarding the arc allowing opponents to make only 28% from deep (9th best nationally). The Utes have an average PPG margin of +17 PPG at home this season and they are in a must win spot off 3 straight losses. The host in this Pac 12 series has covered 15 of the last 22 meetings and we expect that to be the case again on Thursday night. We’ll lay the small number with Utah at home on Thursday. |
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01-18-23 | Hawks +3.5 v. Mavs | Top | 130-122 | Win | 100 | 18 h 12 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* ATLANTA HAWKS +3.5 vs Dallas Mavericks, 7:40 PM ET - Health is a big part of the equation tonight as the Hawks are healthy and the Mavericks are not. Atlanta has been hit hard with injuries for most of the season but now have everyone back including center Clint Capela. The Mavericks are really banged up right now with 3 key role players all out with Kleber, Finney-Smith and Josh Green all sidelined. To make matters worse, several players are playing through nagging injuries and are not 100%. The Hawks have won 3 straight and 4 of their last five games with the lone loss coming against the Bucks. Dallas on the other hand has lost 2 straight and 4 of their last five games. With a healthy roster this Hawks team looks like a play on team in the near future and we will grab the points with them here. |
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01-18-23 | Duquesne v. St Bonaventure +1.5 | Top | 56-65 | Win | 100 | 18 h 51 m | Show |
#674 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* St Bonaventure +1.5 over Duquesne, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - After a record of 6-24 a season ago, Duquesne has surprised this season with a 13-5 mark. Because of that, they’ve become a bit overvalued and they are laying points on the road here vs St Bonnies. That’s a drastic swing from last season when STB was favored by 14 at home and won by 26 points. While they have improved, this Duquesne team has played only 4 true road games and won only 1 of those games and that was vs an 8-10 St Joes team last Wednesday. The Dukes are getting outscored by 7 PPG on the road and now facing a St Bonnies team that is 8-1 at home this season while outscoring their opponents by an average of 10 PPG. The Bonnies are averaging 72 PPG at home and facing a Dukes defense that isn’t great to say the least ranking 229th in scoring defense, 192nd in FG% defense, and 284th in 3 point FG% defense while allowing 75 PPG on the road. On offense, Duquesne relies very heavily on the 3 point shot with 36% of their points coming from deep (36th most nationally). The problem here is, the are facing a Bonnie defense that ranks 16th nationally allowing their opponents to shoot just 29% from deep and even better at home allowing 25%. St Bonnies has dominated this series going 19-3 SU last 22 meetings while winning 14 of the last 15 meetings with Duquesne at home. They are getting points at home here and we’ll take them. |
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01-17-23 | Blazers v. Nuggets UNDER 238.5 | Top | 113-122 | Win | 100 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 238.5 Portland Trailblazers @ Denver Nuggets, 9 PM ET - We can’t help but grab the extra value and the Under in this game as the line opened 233 on this game but now sits at the current bloated number. Scoring overall is up this season in the NBA at 228 total points per contest so you can see for yourself this number is much higher than that. These teams can score as they are the 2nd and 9th most efficient offenses in terms of points per possession. But both are also very slow paced ranking 21st and 23rd in possessions per game. When it comes to defensive efficiency they both are slightly lower than league average. Denver though has been significantly better on the defensive end of the court in their last five games allowing just 1.103-points per possession which ranks 3rd best. The Blazers road games this season have averaged 220.1 total points, while the Nuggets have games have averaged 228.4 total points. The Nuggets will do everything possible to slow down Damian Lillard who has scored 36 and 40 in his last two games. The Blazers have a physical center of their own in Nurkic who matches up well with Jokic for the Nuggets. We will bet the value here and play UNDER! |
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01-17-23 | Texas v. Iowa State -2.5 | Top | 67-78 | Win | 100 | 17 h 55 m | Show |
#640 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Iowa State -2.5 over Texas, Tuesday at 8 PM ET - We went against Texas on Saturday for our Top Game (we took Texas Tech +8.5) and we cashed easily with the Longhorns winning by 2. Tech actually led for much of the game including a halftime lead of 9 points. Texas was never covering at any point of the game with their largest lead being just 7 points. We mentioned in that analysis we felt the Longhorns are overvalued right now based on their 15-2 record and we’ll stick by that here. The Horns are 4-1 in Big 12 play but it hasn’t been a cakewalk. They’ve played the easiest schedule in conference play yet 3 of their 4 wins have come by 4 points or fewer. They trailed late @ Oklahoma and won by 1 point, trailed by 18 at home vs TCU and rallied for a close win and then as we mentioned they were down much of the game on Saturday and pulled out a 2 point win. Now they go on the road vs a vastly underrated Iowa State team. The Cyclones are playing as well as anyone in the Big 12 right now. Their only conference loss was on Saturday @ #2 ranked Kansas. The Jayhawks, who have lost only 3 home games since the start of the 2019 season, won by 2 and never led by more than 3 points the entire 2nd half. ISU missed a 3 point shot as time expired that would have given them the win. Prior to that loss, the Cyclones faced the Texas Tech team that gave Texas all kinds of problems and beat them 84-50. Their other Big 12 home game was a 17 point win over a very good Baylor team. ISU is 13-3 on the season and they’ve been dominant at home with a 9-0 record winning by an average score of 76-49. All of their home wins have come by double digits. Their defense has been outstanding ranking 5th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, 7th in scoring defense allowing 58 PPG, and they are #1 nationally in creating turnovers at a rate of almost 30%. As we mentioned on Saturday, Texas is still dealing with the dismissal of head coach Chris Beard just over a week ago and they have played only 2 true road games all season. We think they get clipped here and ISU gets the home win and cover. |
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01-16-23 | Florida Atlantic v. Western Kentucky +4.5 | Top | 76-62 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 46 m | Show |
#882 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Western Kentucky +4.5 over FAU, Monday at 7 PM ET - FAU just won their biggest game of the season coming from behind to top North Texas on Saturday 66-62. The win moved FAU to 6-0 in CUSA play a full 2 games ahead of UNT in the loss column. The Owls also beat UNT both times already this season giving them a huge leg up in conference play. Now going on the road vs a surging WKY team puts Florida Atlantic in a very dangerous spot. Western KY sits with an 11-6 overall record and has won 3 straight in conference play after starting the league at 0-3. They could easily be right at the top of the conference with FAU & UNT as all 3 of their league losses have come 5 points or less. Florida Atlantic, on the other hand, has played tight games for the most part in CUSA play with 5 of their 6 wins coming by 4 points or fewer. The Owls have played only 2 road games in conference play beating UNT coming back from 9 points down with under 4 minutes remaining in the game and topping FIU in OT. Just one year ago WKY was favored by 4 at home vs FAU and won by 7. Now they are getting 4.5 points (as of this writing) which is nearly a 10 point swing. Too much in our opinion, especially considering the situation. Western KY is averaging 80 PPG at home this season and they’ve beaten the Owls 5 straight times at E.A. Diddle Arena. The last FAU win @ Western Kentucky was back in 2013. Take the points as we think this game is a toss up. |
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01-16-23 | Raptors v. Knicks UNDER 219 | Top | 123-121 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 58 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 219 Toronto Raptors @ NY Knicks, 3 PM ET - These two teams have met twice this season with both games staying below the number with 220 and 219 total points being scored. The O/U numbers set by the oddsmakers on those two games were 216.5 so you can see for yourself the value in today’s number. Historically, if we look back at the last nine meetings the most combined points scored by these two teams is 225. All other meetings have been less than that. We are expecting both defenses to dominate in this game as the Raptors allow the 8th fewest points in the NBA, the Knicks allow the 7th fewest. Both teams are also slower paced so we know it won’t be a high possession game. The Raptors are the 4th slowest team in the NBA at 97.2 possessions per game, the Knicks are 8th slowest at 97.8 possessions per game. The Knicks are coming off a road game yesterday and their games average 218.7PPG when they play without rest. Unless both teams shoot well above their season averages, we can’t see this game going Over the Total. |
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01-15-23 | Thunder v. Nets -5 | Top | 112-102 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 51 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets -5 vs Oklahoma City Thunder, 6:10 PM ET - The Thunder have put together a really impressive stretch of games recently with wins over the Celtics, Mavs, 76ers and Bulls. That success means they’ll have the Nets full attention on Sunday in Brooklyn. The Nets meanwhile are coming off a bad home loss to the Celtics and will be fully focused on today’s opponent. Brooklyn is 9-4 SU, 5-2 SU at home when coming off a loss this season. The Thunder have a negative point differential on the road this season of -2.8PPG while the Nets have a +/- at home of plus +6.1PPG. Brooklyn is the best shooting team in the NBA overall and the 2nd best 3-point shooting team. Even without KD we like the Nets to get a double-digit home win here. |
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01-14-23 | 76ers -4 v. Jazz | Top | 118-117 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 21 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Philadelphia 76ers -4 @ Utah Jazz, 9:10 PM ET - The Jazz are coming off a satisfying home win on Friday over the Orlando Magic. The 76ers on the other hand were off last night and are coming off a very disappointing home loss to the Thunder. Utah has won 2 straight games but had lost 7 of their previous eight. Philly is finally getting healthy and we expect a positive trend moving forward with a roster capable of winning the East. The Jazz have a slight advantage offensively when it comes to efficiency ratings but are far worse defensively, ranking 26th in the NBA in DEFF. Philly on the other hand owns the 4th best defensive efficiency ranking in the league. The Sixers should get plenty of easy scoring opportunities as the Jazz are the worst team in the NBA when it comes to points allowed in the paint at 55.5 per game. Embiid who is averaging 33.5PPG should feast on the Jazz in the interior. Scheduling and previous game results make the 76ers the play on team here. |
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01-14-23 | Texas Tech +9 v. Texas | Top | 70-72 | Win | 100 | 17 h 44 m | Show |
#791 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas Tech +9 over Texas, Saturday at 8 PM ET - Tech enters this game with an 0-4 Big 12 record and this is pretty much a do or die spot for the Red Raiders. They are also coming off their worst performance of the season getting rolled @ Iowa State on Tuesday after playing 3 down to the wire games in conference play prior to that. Tech’s first 3 losses were by 6 points @ TCU (Red Raiders led that game by 13), by 3 points @ Kansas, and in OT vs Oklahoma when 2 of their key players were out. The Raiders have 6 losses on the season, all to teams ranked in the top 30 (Kansas, Ohio St, Creighton, Iowa St, Oklahoma, and TCU) and if we throw out their only terrible performance vs ISU, their average loss was by 6 points. We expect a huge effort after playing terrible in their most previous game. Texas is overvalued right now. They are off a tight 4 point win at home vs TCU, a game in which the Frogs led 40-22 and blew it. The Horns lost by 13 at home to KSU and their other 2 Big 12 wins were by 1 point vs Oklahoma and by 10 vs Oklahoma State in a game Texas actually trailed with 6 minutes left. The Horns are still figuring things out after their head coach Chris Beard was fired last week. Not an ideal situation. The Red Raiders are an ideal team to cover as a large dog because they play very good defense (36th in adjusted efficiency), they are a good shooting team (22nd in eFG%) and they get to the foul line a lot with 20% of their points coming from the stripe (74th most nationally). Texas Tech has actually won 4 of the last 5 in this series and the Horns lone win during that stretch was by 1 point. The Red Raiders were +4 here last year and won outright now we’re getting nearly double digits in a must win spot. Take the points. |
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01-14-23 | Providence v. Creighton -6.5 | Top | 67-73 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
#650 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Creighton -6.5 over Providence, Saturday at 2 PM ET - We’re selling Providence high right now. We don’t think they are as good as their 14-3 overall record, 6-0 in the Big East. There is a reason that Creighton, who is 9-8 overall and 3-3 in the Big East, is the favorite here and not a light one for that matter. The Friars lost all 5 starters from last year’s team and were thought to be a middle of the pack at best Big East team this season. They’ve overachieved to say the least. Creighton is the opposite. They returned many of their key players from a team that beat San Diego State in the Big Dance and then nearly knocked off eventually National Champion Kansas. The Jays were picked by many as the best team in the Big East this season. They’ve underachieved however some of that had to do with injuries. Their starting center Kalkbrenner, who leads Creighton in scoring & rebounding, missed 3 games due to illness and they lost all of those games. They’ve also played the 3rd most difficult schedule in the nation thus far so they are more than prepared for Big East play moving forward. The Friars score over 23% of their points from the FT line which is 13th most nationally. They’ve made 65 more FT’s than their opponents in their 6 league games thus far and when half of their conference games have been decided by 4 points or less or in OT, that make a gigantic difference. Problem for them here is, they are on the road so most likely won’t get favorable calls, and Creighton fouls at the 4th lowest rate in the country with only 12% of their opponents points coming from the FT line. The Blue Jays have a +19 PPG margin at home this season and they are shooting around 49% here. They are in a must win spot at home as they cannot afford to fall further behind. Now at full strength we like Creighton to win and cover this one. |
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01-13-23 | Magic +6 v. Jazz | Top | 108-112 | Win | 100 | 20 h 54 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* ORLANDO MAGIC +6 @ Utah Jazz, 9 PM ET - With a win tonight Orlando can guarantee themselves a winning road trip on this 5-game West Coast jaunt. They already have impressive wins at Golden State and Portland as underdogs. The Jazz have cooled off since their hot start and are on a 2-7 streak in their last nine games. Utah is 13-7 SU on the season at home with a +4.7-point differential. As a favorite though the Jazz are just 8-11 SU, 6-13 ATS with a +/- of +2.1PPG. The Magic have been a profitable "play on" team as a pooch this season with a 21-15-1 ATS record and their net differential is -3.4PPG. Orlando has done well against the West this season with a 10-6-1 ATS record. Against the East, the Jazz are 5-9 ATS. We will back Orlando here and wouldn’t be shocked if they won this game outright. |
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01-13-23 | Eastern Michigan v. Akron -12.5 | Top | 67-104 | Win | 100 | 18 h 19 m | Show |
#880 ASA TOP PLAY ON Akron -12.5 over Eastern Michigan, Friday at 7 PM ET - Total mismatch here. EMU is one of the worst teams in the nation (ranked 318th by KenPom) and defensively they cannot stop anyone. The Eagles are allowing 80 PPG (357th out of 363 teams) and their opponents are making 49% of their shots vs this sieve of a defense (358th). That will be an issue in this game vs an Akron team that is a perfect 8-0 and averaging 78 PPG at home this season. The Zips are 10-6 on the year, after finishing 24-10 last season and losing a close game to UCLA in the NCAA tourney. Five of their six losses have come vs top 100 teams which is understandable. This will be the 4th game this season where Akron has faced a team ranked outside the top 300 and their margins of victory in those games were 13, 25, and 32 points. EMU is 4-12 on the season and all 4 of their wins have ranked outside the top 210. Akron will be the 2nd highest rated team EMU has faced since November 15th when they were creamed by Bradley 89-61. The only other top 200 team they’ve faced since then was Florida Atlantic and the Eagles lost that game by 28 points. The Zips play very solid defense (106th in adjusted defensive efficiency) and they allow just 57 PPG at home this season. EMU is not a very good shooting team and they rely on getting points at the FT line with 21% of their points coming from the stripe. Problem is, Akron fouls very infrequently. The Zips have won 34 of their last 38 home games and they’ve won 9 in a row here vs EMU. Lay it. |
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01-12-23 | Cavs v. Blazers UNDER 223.5 | Top | 119-113 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 49 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 223.5 Cleveland Cavaliers @ Portland Trailblazers, 10:10 PM ET - These are two of the slowest paced teams in the league and getting to this number will be a tall task. In fact, the Cavaliers are THE slowest team in the NBA at 95.6 possessions per game. Portland isn’t much faster ranking 24th slowest. The Cavaliers have the 2nd best defensive efficiency rating in the league as they allow just 1.098-points per possession. Portland ranks 17th in that category and give up 112PPG. Neither team is high scoring either as the Blazers average 112.1PPG (22nd) while the Cavs score 111.5PPG (26th). Portland has stayed Under in 4 straight games and 8 of their last nine. They recently played two similar teams to the Cavs in the Magic and Raptors and those games finished with 215 and 222 total points. Cleveland has played a stretch of games against either fast paced or higher scoring teams so this number is set higher than it should be. The Cavs are on a 6-0 Under streak when facing a team with a losing record. We will be on the UNDER here! |
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01-12-23 | Gonzaga v. BYU +7 | Top | 75-74 | Win | 100 | 20 h 23 m | Show |
#838 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* BYU +7 over Gonzaga, Thursday at 9:30 PM ET - The Zags continue to be overvalued in the market based on past perception. This team is nowhere near the level they were over the last few seasons. Because of that false perception, the oddsmakers have been off on this team and they have a terrible 4-12 ATS record. They’ve played 3 true road games this year and haven’t covered any of those – 0-3 ATS losing to the spread by an average of 9.5 PPG. This is not an ideal spot for Gonzaga as they’ll be playing their 3rd consecutive road game in the span of a week. They won their first 2 in this 3 game trip beating San Francisco by 2 points and Santa Clara by 5 points (both non-covers). The were quite lucky to come away with wins in those team games as they trailed by 12 @ SF and by 14 @ Santa Clara while their largest leads in those 2 games were 3 & 6 points respectively. We think their luck runs out here. BYU struggled early in the season with a 5-5 record after 10 games but they’ve since hit their stride winning 8 of their last 9 games. Defensively BYU has been very good ranking 27th in the nation in adjusted efficiency and at home they are allowing only 63 PPG on 40% shooting. The Zags have fallen way off on the defensive end this year after ranking in the top 20 in adjusted efficiency in 5 of the previous 6 seasons. This year they rank 280th in PPG allowed and 240th in FG% allowed. The Cougars have a 13-6 record but it could be much better as 5 of their 6 losses have come by 7 points or less. They also have one of the best home court advantages in college basketball having won 45 of their last 51 here at the Marriott Center. Our numbers have this game going to the wire so we’ll take the generous points. |
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01-11-23 | Rutgers v. Northwestern UNDER 127 | Top | 65-62 | Push | 0 | 19 h 43 m | Show |
#745/746 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 127 Points – Rutgers vs Northwestern, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - Two of the top defensive teams not only in the Big 10 but in the country facing off here. Rutgers ranks 3rd nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency and allows only 56 PPG (4th best nationally). Northwestern ranks 9th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency while allowing only 58 PPG (13th in the country). Both rank in the 10 top in the nation in FG% allowed, each right around 37%. Both rank in the top 30 in forcing turnovers so we should have plenty of empty possessions in the half court as neither team likes the up tempo game. Now to the offenses. Neither team shoots the ball very well ranking 241st (Rutgers) and 337th (NW) in eFG%. Both teams rank outside the top 265 in three point % both hitting right around 31% for the season. Despite not shooting it very well, the Wildcats do like to shoot 3’s with 34% of their points coming from deep but that plays right into Rutgers defensive strength as they limit opponents to only 27% from beyond the arc (8th best nationally). On the other end, Rutgers takes very few 3’s but their scoring inside should be limited here vs a NW defense that allows opponents to make just 41% of their 2 point shots (2nd best nationally). This one sets up as a low scoring, Big 10 grinder and we’re on the Under. |
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01-11-23 | Pelicans v. Celtics OVER 229 | Top | 114-125 | Win | 100 | 17 h 15 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 229 New Orleans Pelicans @ Boston Celtics, 7:40 PM ET - This line is lower than it should be according to our computers and we will bet accordingly. The Celtics are the 8th best 3-point shooting team in the NBA this season yet are coming off a game in which they went 11 of 41 from Deep or 27%. We expect them to have a better shooting night here, even against a Pelicans defense that defends the Arc well. The Pels may be without one of their best wing defenders in this game with Herb Jones questionable. New Orleans is coming off a 132-point game against the Wizards on Monday. Boston is 2nd in the league in scoring at 118.5PPG while the Pelicans are 4th at 117.4. Both defenses are slightly better than average in terms of points allowed per game. Boston is 16th in the league in pace of play, New Orleans is 12th so we know we’ll get plenty of possessions from each team. These are essentially two top 10 teams in terms of team field goal percentage shooting so they don’t need a high possession game to put up points. This has been an Under series of late, but that changes tonight. Bet OVER! |
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01-10-23 | Illinois v. Nebraska +3.5 | Top | 76-50 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 2 m | Show |
#654 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Nebraska +3.5 over Illinois, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - Nebraska continues to be undervalued in our opinion, especially at home. This team has vastly improved over last season as they currently rank 85th in the KenPom ratings after finishing last season ranked 140th. The Huskers are 6-1 at home this season with their only loss coming by 3 points in OT vs Purdue, the highest ranked team in the conference (6th on KenPom). Illinois has been trending down for a month now. After winning 6 of their first 7 games, the Illini have gone 4-4 over their last 8. They’ve played 2 true road games this season and lost both @ Maryland by 5 and @ Northwestern by 13. They are coming off a nice win at home over Wisconsin on Saturday but that came with a few asterisks. The Badgers were forced to play without their top player, Tyler Wahl, who is recovering from an ankle injury. On top of that, the Illini shot WAY above their season averages in that game making 10 of their 19 three point attempts (53%) when they entered the game making only 32% of their 3’s on the season. Wisconsin was also called for 21 personal fouls leading to +14 points at the FT line for Illinois. In their most recent home game Nebraska was a 4 point dog vs Iowa and won by 16 and their vastly improved defense (44th in adjusted efficiency) held the potent Iowa attack to just 50 points. Now they face an Illinois team that has averaged only 63 PPG on the road, 14 fewer than their season average. The host in this Big 10 series have covered 6 of the last 7 and we give the Huskers a great shot to pull the upset here. Grab the points. |
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01-10-23 | Hornets +8 v. Raptors | Top | 120-132 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Charlotte Hornets +8 vs Toronto Raptors, 7:40 PM ET - We like the Hornets here as this number is higher than it should be. The Hornets just played a hot Pacers team that has won 8 of their last ten games and were +5.5-points there. The game before that they were a +10-point dog in Milwaukee and won outright. Charlotte has bad overall numbers on the road this season but recently they lost to Indiana by 5, beat the Bucks, lost to the Warriors by 5, -11 at Portland and beat the Lakers. Historically, the Raptors have enjoyed a tremendous home court advantage but this season they have been slightly above average at 12-10 SU. They have a +1.7PPG +/- at home which is 20th in the NBA. They are hovering around league average in offensive efficiency at home and near the bottom of the NBA in defensive efficiency. Both teams have struggled with their shooting for the season but in their last five games the Raptors are hitting below season numbers in both overall FG% and 3PT%. In fact, those percentages are brutally bad as Toronto is shooting 42% from the field and 30.9% from beyond the Arc in their last five games. Charlotte has covered 18 of the last 26 as the visitor in this series. Grab the inflated points. |
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01-09-23 | Magic v. Kings -6 | Top | 111-136 | Win | 100 | 20 h 12 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Sacramento Kings -6 vs Orlando Magic, 10 PM ET - These two teams are coming off opposite results which makes the Kings the play on team here and the Magic the play against. Orlando is off a big road win over the Warriors as a +6.5-point underdog. They face a hungry Kings team that is off a bitter 2-point loss to the Lakers. Sacramento has a +/- at home of +3.3PPG and stand 11-9 SU on the season on their home court. Orlando has the 25th worst road differential in the NBA at minus -5.4PPG and is 5-13 away from home. The Kings have lost 2 straight at home and will be up for this game against a young Magic team. Orlando is an exciting team in the league but playing at a consistent level is always difficult for a young roster. Bet the Kings here. |
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01-08-23 | Blazers v. Raptors UNDER 226 | Top | 105-117 | Win | 100 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 226 Portland Trailblazers @ Toronto Raptors, 3:40 PM ET - The Blazers are coming off several games against some of the league's fastest paced teams and 3 of the four games ended Under the total. In their two most recent games versus the Timberwolves and Pacers (6th and 7th in pace) they combined for 219 and 207 total points. Now they face a Toronto team that is the 5th slowest in the NBA at 97.1 possessions per game. The Raptors have played in two low scoring games in their last two with total points being scored of 220 and 205. Portland also prefers a lower possession game as they rank 7th slowest in pace of play at 97.7 possessions per game. Both teams are near average in both offensive and defensive efficiency ratings so with the lower pace we shouldn’t see this game being near the league average of 227.6 total points. The Blazers are on a 5-0 Under streak on the road, Toronto Under in 3 of the last four at home. |
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01-07-23 | Magic v. Warriors -6 | Top | 115-101 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 40 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -6 vs Orlando Magic, 8:30 PM ET - We like how this young Magic team is starting to come together but this isn’t a great spot for them and the price is right to play against them. Consider this: The Magic were just +6.5-points at home against Memphis and are not catching that same number in Golden State. Let’s face it, the Warriors aren’t the team they were a year ago with injuries taking a toll, but they are still 17-3 SU at home with a +/- of +8.7PPG. That differential is the 4th best average in the NBA. Orlando is 4-13 SU away from home with a negative differential of minus -6.5PPG which is 25th worst. Golden State lost at home to Detroit which makes them a ‘play on’ here. The Warriors are 10-0 SU, 8-2 ATS this season at home when off a loss. Orlando doesn’t bounce back like the Warriors do, the Magic are 2-9 SU, 3-8 ATS when on the road coming off a beat. Orlando beat Golden State by 1-point at home earlier in the season which makes this a payback game for Golden State. Lay the points |
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01-06-23 | Hornets v. Bucks OVER 233.5 | Top | 138-109 | Win | 100 | 18 h 28 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 233.5 Charlotte Hornets @ Milwaukee Bucks, 8:10 PM ET - This will be a game where both teams get plenty of possessions and scoring opportunities. On the season the Hornets are the 8th fastest paced team in the NBA at 101 possessions per game. The bucks are 14th at 99.7. In their last five games though the Hornets are averaging 105.7 possessions per game (1st), the Bucks are at 102.7 (3rd most). Charlotte is one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA as they give up over 118PPG. They have allowed 121 or more points in 6 of their last eight and 130+ twice. The Bucks defensive numbers are some of the best in the league but they’ve had a few hiccups lately allowing 118 or more in 5 of their last nine games. The Hornets get a large portion of their scoring on fast break opportunities and points in the paint. Surprisingly, the Bucks are average defensively in stopping fast break points and points in the paint. Milwaukee is coming off a horrible shooting night in Toronto and will find their stroke back at home where they shoot 47.6% on the season. Scoring has been trending up in the NBA and this number is within reach of an average NBA game which is 227.6 total points. |
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01-05-23 | Celtics -2.5 v. Mavs | Top | 124-95 | Win | 100 | 8 h 40 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -2.5 vs Dallas Mavericks, 7:30 PM ET - We were hoping this line would be lower than it is given the circumstances but the oddsmakers know what they’re doing and aren’t fooled by the Mavs current 7-game winning streak. Don’t get me wrong, winning 7 in a row in the NBA is difficult, but the Mavs have faced a soft stretch of teams and only one of those foes has a current winning record. In fact, those 7-teams have a combined record of 98-170 on the season. We like playing elite teams off a loss and the Celtics were embarrassed last time out against the Thunder in a 117-150 beat-down. Not one of the 23 or more win teams in the NBA have a losing straight up record this season when coming off a loss. There are 7 teams in the league right now that have 23+ wins and they are a combined 59-40 SU when coming off a loss. Boston holds advantages in both offensive and defensive efficiency stats for the season and have better overall point differentials. Boston will get back on track tonight with a solid road victory in Dallas. |
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01-05-23 | Maryland v. Rutgers UNDER 131.5 | Top | 50-64 | Win | 100 | 18 h 48 m | Show |
#737/738 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 131.5 Points – Maryland vs Rutgers, Thursday at 6:30 PM ET - Two very solid defenses that make opposing offenses work for shots leads to a lower scoring game here. These defenses are each rated in the top 30 nationally in adjusted efficiency and in the top 20 in eFG% defense. Maryland’s defense limits opponents to a shot very 17.9 seconds (281st) and Rutgers defense is allowing a shot every 18.3 seconds (336th) so both offense are really going to be limited when it comes to how many shots they actually get. When looking at Unders we like to find games where 3 point shots won’t be a huge factor. We expect that to be the case here as neither teams shoots the 3 ball all that much and neither does it well with Maryland hitting 30.8% of their triples (294th nationally) and Rutgers makes only 31.3% of their 3’s (272nd in the country). Now we add in both defensive teams which rank in the top 20 nationally at defending the arc and we just don’t many points from deep in this game. At home the Scarlet Knights have been through the roof defensively allowing just 50 PPG so far this season and they’ve allowed just 1 of their 10 opponents to reach the 60 point mark. Maryland has faced 5 top 100 defenses (adjusted efficiency) this season and they are averaging 58 PPG in those contests (Rutgers ranks 3rd nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency). Rutgers has also faced 5 teams rated in the top 100 in adjusted defensive efficiency and they have averaged 59 PPG in those games (Maryland ranks 30th in adjusted defensive efficiency). These 2 met twice last season and both games fell below 130 total points. Take the Under on Thursday Night. |
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01-04-23 | TCU v. Baylor -5 | Top | 88-87 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 26 m | Show |
#728 ASA TOP PLAY ON Baylor -5 over TCU, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - The Bears were embarrassed at Iowa State in their most recent game losing 77-62 @ Iowa State as a 1.5 point favorite. The Bears played that game without one of their best players, LJ Cryer, who averages 15 PPG on the season. He’s back for this game and we expect a big bounce back from Baylor after shooting well below their average in their ISU loss hitting only 37% of their shots (they average 47%) and just 22% from beyond the arc (they average 35%). This team has lost back to back games only ONCE since the start of the 22019 season. Now they are back at home where they average 87 PPG on 49% shooting with a perfect 7-0 record on the season. Going back further, Baylor has been dominant at home to say the least winning 47 of their last 50 games! TCU steps into this game with a 12-1 record having won 10 in a row. Problem is, they’ve played one of the easiest schedules in the nation (355th SOS) and they haven’t played a true road game yet this season. Almost half of their games (6) have come vs teams ranked outside the top 300. Despite playing an easy schedule, TCU has struggled to shoot the ball ranking 150th in FG% and 339th in 3 point FG%. Last year Baylor was favored by 10 at home in this game and won by 10. This year we’re getting them off a loss and at a discounted price. Lay it with the Bears. |
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01-04-23 | Thunder v. Magic -2 | Top | 115-126 | Win | 100 | 7 h 57 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Orlando Magic -2 over Oklahoma City Thunder, 7 PM ET - Both teams will have adjusted rosters here as OKC is missing All-Star guard Gilgeous-Alexander, while the Magic have several suspensions including both Wagners and Bol Bol. We don’t mind the Magic having a shorter rotation tonight as they’ve been off since last Friday so fatigue shouldn’t be a factor. Orlando had won 8 of nine games before losing their three most recent, the last coming at home. That helps set up tonight’s play on a rested, focused Orlando team. OKC is coming off one of their biggest wins of the season as they put up 150 on the Celtics last night. The Thunder shot well above season averages as they hit 59% overall and made 20 of 40 3-pointers or 50%. Oklahoma City is 1-3 SU this season when playing without rest with a negative differential of minus -5.2PPG. The Magic are 5-2 SU their last seven home games and will get a much-needed home victory here. |
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01-03-23 | Wizards v. Bucks OVER 228 | Top | 113-123 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 228 Washington Wizards @ Milwaukee Bucks, 8:10 PM ET - These two teams just squared off the other day in Milwaukee and produced 213 total points and stayed Under the number of 221.5. They had plenty of possessions though as the Wizards attempted 94 field goals, the Bucks hoisted 96. Milwaukee shot just 35% from the field overall and 27% from Deep which are both well below season averages of 45.6% and 34.2%. Washington scored 118-points without Bradley Beal (23.5PPG) who may be back in the lineup tonight. The Bucks were missing their two leading scorers as Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jrue Holiday were both out. Giannis and his 32PPG is expected back tonight along with Holiday’s 19PPG. Washington is averaging 121PPG in their last five contests and the Bucks defense is giving up that same amount in their last five games. Both of these teams will get to 115 or more points here. Bet Over |
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01-03-23 | Nebraska v. Michigan State UNDER 132 | Top | 56-74 | Win | 100 | 18 h 2 m | Show |
#613/614 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 132 Points – Nebraska vs Michigan State, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Defenses are the strengths of both teams in this match up. Both rank in the top 50 in adjusted defensive efficiency and both allow their opponents to make only 40% from the field on the season. Both also prefer a slower paced game with MSU ranking 300th in adjusted tempo and Nebraska 281st. MSU has not allowed more than 70 points since late November, a span of 6 straight games. The Husker defense has really improved this season holding a number of high scoring offenses in check including stopping Iowa in their tracks in their most recent game limiting the Hawkeyes to just 50 points (Iowa averages 81 PPG). Nebraska also held Purdue to 56 points in regulation (Boilers average 77 PPG) and Creighton to 53 points (Blue Jays average 77 PPG) just to name a few. Offensively neither of these teams is a great shooting team. Both rank outside the top 180 in FG% and outside the top 200 in points per game. Since we hit December, Nebraska has scored 65, 65, 56 (in regulation), 56, 75 (vs Queens College), and 66 points. Since November 30th the Spartans have topped 68 points only one time (6 games) and that was vs a Buffalo who is one of the fastest paced teams in the nation with a defense thar ranks 218th in efficiency. 5 of MSU’s last 6 games have totaled 133 points or less and 4 of Nebraska’s last 6 haven’t even reached 130 total points. Under here. |
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01-03-23 | Marquette v. St. John's +2.5 | Top | 96-85 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 54 m | Show |
#602 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* St Johns +2.5 over Marquette, Tuesday at 6:30 PM ET - Huge home game for STJ who has gotten off to a rough 1-3 start in Big East play. The Johnnies are coming off a poor performance @ Seton Hall where they were a 3.5 point dog and lost 88-66. In that game they underperformed on both ends of the court making only 41% of their shots and 22% of their triples. ON the defensive end they allowed the Hall to make 54% from the field. We expect them to bounce back at home where they are 8-1 on the season with their only loss coming by 5 points vs Xavier who is ranked in the top 20 and just beat #2 UConn by 10 points. Marquette is on the east coast for their 2nd game in 4 days after upsetting Villanova (who now is just 7-7 on the season) on Saturday. The Golden Eagles trailed for much of the 2nd half but pulled out a 68-66 win. Marquette has a solid 11-4 record but they’ve only played 3 true road games and lost 2 of those with their only win coming by 2 points as we discussed. The Eagles were dominated on the boards on Saturday (-11) and we anticipate the same here as STJ is the 13th best offensive rebounding team in the nation while Marquette ranks outside the top 200 in both offensive and defensive rebounding. The host in this series has covered 10 of the last 12 and we like the desperate home underdog in this game. |
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01-02-23 | Nuggets v. Wolves +2 | Top | 111-124 | Win | 100 | 7 h 11 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Minnesota Timberwolves +2 vs Denver Nuggets, 8:10 PM ET - This is a plug your nose type bet as we are going against a Nuggets team on a 10-2 run and playing on a Wolves team that has lost 6 straight. But ask yourself this, why are the Nuggets this low of a favorite? Minnesota is coming off a demoralizing home loss to the Pistons on Saturday which prompted a player only meeting. This team was considered a strong playoff team this season but the injury to Karl Anthony Towns has hurt more than expected. Denver is red hot, but they are also coming off a big home win yesterday against the Celtics which makes this the 2nd of a back-to-back for them. This is also Denver’s 5th game in seven days so fatigue will be a major factor here. Denver hasn’t been a trustworthy road favorite with a 15-18 ATS record in that role since the start of the 2021 season. Minnesota is a respectable 37-26 SU at home since 2021. We like the Wolves to get this much needed home win over a spent Nuggets team. |
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12-31-22 | Heat v. Jazz UNDER 226 | Top | 126-123 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 29 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 226 Miami Heat @ Utah Jazz, 9:10 PM ET - We were on the Under in the Heat/Nuggets last night which unfortunately lost but we had the pace of play we needed to win that bet but couldn’t predict an insanely hot shooting night by the Nuggets. Denver shot 61% from Deep and 59% overall. Miami too outperformed season shooting expectations by making 40% of their 3-point attempts (34% on the year). Both teams are coming off games last night as the Jazz just totaled 251 total points with the Kings in Sacramento (both teams shot over 55% from the field, well above season averages). The Jazz have played three straight games against three of the faster paced teams in the NBA. Now they get a Miami team that is the 5th slowest. Those three teams the Jazz faced are also bad defensively, whereas the Heat rank 8th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.11-points per possession. Miami has faced three teams that have similar metrics to the Jazz in the Lakers, Wolves and Pacers and those three games finished with 210, 223 and 219 total points. When playing the 2nd night of a back-to-back the Jazz average less points than their season average. With both teams coming off games last night, our computers suggest a slower paced game here and an ‘average’ shooting night for both. |
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12-31-22 | Florida International v. North Texas UNDER 127.5 | Top | 57-72 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
#715/716 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 127.5 Points – FIU vs North Texas, Saturday at 4 PM ET - UNT is the slowest paced team in the nation (363 in adjusted tempo) and one of the better defensive teams in the country (25th in defensive efficiency). This team has not allowed any of their 13 opponents to reach 60 points. Now they are facing an FIU team who isn’t very efficient offensively (296th in adjusted efficiency) and really struggles to shoot it from deep making only 28.9% from beyond the arc (335th nationally). FIU has had some higher scoring games but they prefer to play fast and most of those games have come vs other high tempo teams. UNT will slow this game to a crawl as they do in every game and the slow paced team almost always wins out as far as tempo goes. Against other high tempo teams (rank in the top 50 in adjusted tempo) the Mean Green have kept it low scoring. Versus UMass (ranked 38th in adjusted tempo) the total points scored was 106 and vs Long Beach St (13th adjusted tempo) the total points scored was 115. On the other end while UNT is great defensively, not so much on offense. They rank outside the top 295 on eFG%, 3 point % and 2 point %. The Mean Green are averaging only 60 PPG on the season. UNT is coming off a loss vs Florida Atlantic in which they totaled only 96 points. FAU is averaging 77 PPG (51st nationally) and UNT held them to 50 points, by far their lowest mark of the season. North Texas will make this a grinder as they always do and this one stays Under. |
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12-31-22 | Western Kentucky v. Middle Tennessee -5.5 | Top | 60-65 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 51 m | Show |
#722 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Middle Tennessee State -5.5 over Western Kentucky, Saturday at 4 PM ET - We like this veteran MTSU squad at home off a loss on Thursday. They were beaten by Charlotte (10-3 record) on the road as a 2 point dog. At home this year they are 4-1 with all of their wins coming by at least 16 points. The Blue Raiders have one of the top home court advantages in CUSA as they’ve won 21 of their last 22 here at home. This is an MTSU team that finished with a 26-11 record last year and has 7 of their top 9 players back from that team. WKY is in a free fall right now losing 3 straight games after starting the season 8-1. Those 3 losses came vs teams ranked 257, 198, and 178 including an 11 point loss @ Louisville which currently has a 2-11 record with their only other win coming by 6 vs Florida A&M who is one of the worst teams in the country. Unlike MTSU who has most of their players back, Western KY returns only 2 of their top 8 players from last season. Western is 8-4 on the season but they’ve faced one of the easiest schedules in the country so far this season having not faced a single top 100 team and all but one of their wins have come vs teams ranked outside the top 200. They are 2-2 on the road but their 2 road wins were down to the wire vs Eastern KY and Austin Peay, both ranked outside the top 240. The Blue Raiders won both games last year (by 8 on the road and by 17 at home) and with basically the same team in tact, we like them to win and cover at home on Saturday. |
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12-30-22 | Heat v. Nuggets UNDER 224.5 | Top | 119-124 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 59 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UNDER 224.5 Miami Heat @ Denver Nuggets, 9:10 PM ET - The Heat are the 4th slowest paced team in the NBA at 97.3 possessions per game. The Nuggets are the 13th slowest at 98.7 possessions per game. That means there is a high probability of a very low possession game here and a slower pace. Denver is very efficient offensively ranking 3rd best in the league. Miami is not as they are the 3rd least efficient offense in the NBA. Defensively the Heat hld the advantage with the 7th best defensive efficiency rating while the Nuggets rank 25th. Denver has been much better defensively in their last 5 games though with the 6th best efficiency number allowed at 1.116-points per possession. The Heat are on a 6-2 Under streak, Denver has played Under in 6 of their last nine games. We expect those trends to continue for both teams here. |
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12-30-22 | NC State v. Clemson -1.5 | Top | 64-78 | Win | 100 | 13 h 27 m | Show |
#868 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Clemson -1.5 over NC State, Friday at 4 PM ET - Clemson is on a nice roll winning 6 of their last 7 games and they are a perfect 7-0 at home this season. They have won 27 of their last 33 home games and where this line sits at -2 they really just need to win this game. The Tigers are +14 PPG at home this season and they’ve topped 3 top 100 teams at home. 5 of their 7 game wins have come by at least 10 points and they are facing an NC State team that has played one true road game this season losing @ Miami FL by 7 points. With that 1 road loss, the Wolfpack have lost 8 of their 11 road games since the start of last season which includes a 5 point loss @ Clemson last season. Versus higher level competition this season, NC State has a 3-3 record vs top 100 teams while Clemson is 3-1 vs top 100 teams. The Tigers have one of the top shooting teams in the nation ranking 28th in eFG% and 13th in 3 point FG%. At home they are hitting nearly 45% of their 3’s this year which make them very tough to beat at Littlejohn Coliseum where they have a PPG differential of +14 this season. If the Tigers are attempting to salt this game away at the FT line late, we’re looking at a team that hits 77% of their FT attempts. We like Clemson to win at home and cover on Friday evening. |
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12-29-22 | Rockets v. Mavs UNDER 225.5 | Top | 114-129 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 225.5 Houston Rockets @ Dallas Mavericks, 8:30 PM ET - We love the value in this number as these same two teams just met last week and the O/U posted by Vegas was 219.5. They combined for 218 total points on 161 field goal attempts. An average NBA game finishes with 227 total points scored on 176 field goal attempts. Neither are great shooting teams as the Mavs rank 18th in overall FG%, while the Rockets are 29th. These two teams also prefer to play slower as the Rockets rank 17th in pace of play at 99.1 possessions per game. The Mavericks are slower yet ranking as the second slowest team in the league ahead of only the Cavaliers. In the other meeting this season between these two teams they combined for 193 points on this court. The Under is 6-1 the last seven times these two teams have met, including 4 straight. Based on our calculations this game will finish with 219 total points. |
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12-28-22 | Boise State v. Nevada UNDER 131 | Top | 72-74 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 28 m | Show |
#651/652 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 131 Points – Boise State vs Nevada, Wednesday at 10 PM ET - Two top notch defensive teams facing off here and we anticipate a low scoring game. Boise ranks 11th nationally allowing just 58 PPG while Nevada ranks 70th giving up just 63 PPG. Boise’s defense has allowed less than 60 points in 8 of their last 11 games. Both rank in the top 25 nationally in FG% allowed with Boise giving up 37.3% and Nevada allowing 38.5% from the field. Both teams are slower paced ranking outside the top 225 in adjusted tempo and both defenses really make opposing offenses work for shots with Boise allowing a shot every 17.6 seconds (228th) and Nevada allowing a shot every 18.7 seconds (357th). Neither team shoots the ball very well with each right around 43% on the season ranking them 255th. Both are solid defensive rebounding teams and both rank outside the top 220 in offensive rebounding so we don’t expect many 2nd chances. These teams have combined for a 16-8 Under record this season. First conference game for both teams so we expect the defensive intensity to ramp up on Wednesday night. Under is the play. |
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12-28-22 | Bucks v. Bulls UNDER 231.5 | Top | 113-119 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 19 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 231.5 Milwaukee Bucks @ Chicago Bulls, 8 PM ET - We are betting the value of the number in this game and that’s Under the total. These two teams met in late November and the O/U on that game was 224. They scored 231 points in that game but both teams shot above their season averages. In fact, the last ten meetings have all finished with 231 or less points with the Under cashing 8 of ten times. Milwaukee holds the 6th best defensive efficiency rating at 1.104-points per possession. They are coming off a horrible defensive showing last time out when they allowed 139 points to the Celtics. Expect a very focused effort here off that embarrassing outing. The Bulls are in a similar situation as they just gave up 133 to the Rockets. Chicago is slightly below the league average in DEFF but they are slightly better defensively at home. When the Bucks have played on the road this season those games have averaged 219 total points. The Bulls games at home are averaging 226.1PPG. Combined these two teams have road/home records of 10-20-1 to the Under. This one stays Under the number. |
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12-27-22 | Hawks -1.5 v. Pacers | Top | 114-129 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
ASA play on: Atlanta Hawks -1.5 vs. Indiana Pacers, 7:40PM ET The Pacers were essentially blown out in New Orleans last night as they trailed big early on and were never competitive. Tonight they return home to face a Hawks team that is finally getting healthy. The Hawks had their starting five back for their game against the Pistons on Dec 23rd and won 130-105. Atlanta comes into this game fresh and with a huge match up advantage over the Pacers. Last season the Hawks won (and covered) all 4 meetings with the Pacers including a pair of wins on this court. Atlanta should get plenty of second-chance opportunities in this game with their 10th best offensive rebounding unit going up against the Pacers 28th ranked defensive rebounding. Indiana also relies heavily on their 3-points shooting (11th) but the Hawks hold opponents to the 4th lowest 3-point percentage in the NBA. In their last five games the Hawks have a +/- of +6.4PPG. The Pacers have a negative differential of minus -4.2PPG in that same stretch. Take the visiting Hawks in this one. |
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12-25-22 | Bucks v. Celtics UNDER 225 | Top | 118-139 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 8 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 225 Milwaukee Bucks @ Boston Celtics, Sunday 5:00 pm ET - This is a rematch of last year's playoff series which the Celtics won in 7 games. All seven of those games finished with 224 or less points. The four games in that series where the Celtics were the host averaged 198 total points. Neither team plays fast as they both average around 99 possessions per game which is about league average. The Bucks are the 3rd best defensive efficiency team in the NBA allowing 1.095-points per possession. The Celtics own the 8th best defensive efficiency rating at 1.111PPP. The Under has cashed in 5 of the last seven meetings between these two rivals. |
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12-23-22 | Pacers v. Heat -6 | Top | 111-108 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Miami Heat -6 vs. Indiana Pacers, 8:10 PM ET - There is some value in this number as the Pacers were just +9.5 points at Boston and +8 at Cleveland. In fact, these two teams played on Dec. 12th in Indy and the Heat were favored by -3.5-points there which means this line should be higher than it is. We also like the situation with the Pacers off a big upset win in Boston, while the Heat are off an upset home loss to the Bulls. Miami had won 4 straight games and seemed to be finding their groove which has been missing for much of the season early on. Both teams are 16-16 SU on the season, but we feel the Heat can contend in the East, but the Pacers cannot. Miami has a clear advantage defensively with the 6th best defensive efficiency rating in the NBA compared to the Pacers 19th rank. Indiana is better overall in offensive efficiency this season but in their last five games the Pacers OEFF is 1.096 which ranks 26th in the NBA. Indiana is just 1-5 ATS their last six when coming off a win. Since the start of last season, the Heat are 29-20 ATS when coming off a loss. We will acknowledge the Heat have been horrible ATS at home this season with a 3-12-1 record but that means a correction is in order. |
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12-23-22 | Clippers v. 76ers -3 | Top | 114-119 | Win | 100 | 21 h 17 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Philadelphia 76ers -3 vs LA Clippers, 7:10 PM ET - The Sixers are playing at another level right now with 6 straight wins to improve to 18-12 on the season. At home they are 13-5 SU with an average +/- of plus +6.8PPG which ranks 9th best. The Clippers are also playing well and are starting to get healthy but this will be their first road game since Dec 10th. LA is 8-7 SU on the road with a negative differential of minus -0.6PPG. The Clippers have a +9PPG average Margin of Victory in their last five games (all at home) but the 76ers are better yet at +14.6PPG in their last five. Philly has the 9th best offensive efficiency rating in the league's last 5-game span compared to the Clippers who rank 28th. Los Angeles has the best overall DEFF ratings in the last five games but the 76ers are 2nd. Philadelphia has covered 10 of the last thirteen and will get another win and cover here. |
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12-22-22 | Spurs v. Pelicans -7.5 | Top | 117-126 | Win | 100 | 23 h 2 m | Show |
ASA NBA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans -7.5 vs San Antonio Spurs, 8:10 PM ET - The Pelicans have hit a rough patch of games with 4 straight losses but let’s consider who those L’s came against. They lost a pair of games to a hot Jazz team, lost in Phoenix and home to the Bucks. Off that home loss we like them to explode with a big win today against the Spurs. San Antonio got a road win last time out against the Rockets but now steps up in class to face the Pelicans. New Orleans has the 8th best scoring differential at home this season of +7.8PPG and a 12-4 SU record. The Spurs have a respectable 5-8 SU road record but they are getting beat by an average of -8.9PPG which is the 3rd highest average in the NBA. San Antonio is one of, if not the worst defense team in the NBA ranking 30th in points allowed per game, FG% defense and 3-point percentage D. They are also mid-20’s in most offensive categories. The Pelicans are 7th in DEFF and 5th in OEFF and the far superior team in this setting and playing with a chip on their shoulders. New Orleans has faced the Spurs twice this season in San Antonio and was favored by -5.5 and -7.5 points in those two games. Even without Zion Williamson this is a bargain. |
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12-22-22 | Seattle University v. Utah State -9.5 | Top | 56-84 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
#864 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Utah State -9.5 over Seattle, Thursday at 5:30 PM ET - This game is on a neutral site in Hawaii. USU was 9-0 on the season heading into their home game on Monday night vs Weber State. We’re guessing they were looking ahead to this trip to Hawaii as they lost by 3 points at home as a 17 point favorite. Utah State blew an 18 point lead in that game and you can bet they’ll be ready for a bounce back performance here. Prior to that loss the Aggies had been fantastic this season with 8 of their 9 wins coming by double digits including 6 vs top 150 teams. They play fast and are a tough team to keep up with offensively averaging 87 PPG while ranking #1 in the nation in 3 point percentage (43%). The way to beat this USU team is to slow the game down and make them play long possessions in the half court. That won’t happen here as Seattle likes to play fast as well which plays right into Utah State’s hands. Seattle is 8-2 but they’ve played the much easier schedule facing only 2 teams all season ranked inside the top 150. USU will be by far the best team Seattle has played this season. The only other top 100 team they’ve faced was Washington who beat the Redhawks by double digits. USU should get to the line a lot here as well as Seattle fouls a lot with over 23% of their opponents points coming from the stripe (25th most nationally). Not great as USU hits 76% of their FT’s as a team. We’re going to get an angry Utah State team here off a loss and we expect an easy win. |
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12-21-22 | Magic v. Rockets UNDER 224 | Top | 116-110 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 224 Orlando Magic at Houston Rockets, 8:10 PM ET - According to our computer this is a very generous number by the oddsmakers. Our simulators are projecting 218 total points being scored here. When it comes to pace of play these two teams prefer a slower tempo. The Magic are the 9th slowest paced team in the NBA, the Rockets are the 12th slowest. Neither is efficient in their scoring either as the Magic average 1.108 points per every possession (25th in OEFF) while the Rockets average 1.094PPP (26th OEFF). Neither team shoots it well as the Magic rank 17th in FG% and 21st in 3-point shooting. The Rockets offense is worse shooting 44.2% as a team (30th) and 32.7% from beyond the arc which ranks 28th. Both defenses are average or slightly below. Houston has scored or allowed 108 or less points in eight straight games. Orlando has allowed 109 or less in 7 of their last ten regulations. We like this game UNDER the total |
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12-21-22 | Clemson v. Georgia Tech +1.5 | Top | 79-66 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
#714 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Georgia Tech +1.5 over Clemson, Wednesday at 7:30 PM ET - Wrong team favored here according to our power ratings. Clemson had the better record at 9-3 compared to GT at 7-4 but they’ve played the easier strength of schedule. The Tigers have played 4 games away from home (true away + neutral) and they’ve won only 1 of those games vs Loyola Chicago on a neutral site. In their one true road game they lost @ South Carolina who currently sits with at 5-6 record. The Tigers only win away from home was by 8 points on a neutral site vs a California team that is currently 0-12. Tech is 6-0 at home and their 4 losses are all vs teams ranked in the top 50, all higher than this Clemson team. The Tigers scores 35.5% of their points from 3 (77th nationally) and they are facing the best 3 point defense they’ve seen this season with Tech allowing just 27% from deep (13th in the nation). Tech’s offense has been much better at home averaging 83 PPG and making 49% of their shots. Clemson is averaging just 58 PPG in their road games while making just 38% of their shots. The home team has won 7 of the last 9 outright in this ACC series and we like the home dog to win outright here. |
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12-20-22 | Bulls v. Heat UNDER 223.5 | Top | 113-103 | Win | 100 | 9 h 34 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 223.5 Chicago Bulls at Miami Heat, 7:40 PM ET - The Bulls should step up defensively tonight after allowing an embarrassing 150-points in their last game to the Timberwolves. Minnesota shot a ridiculous 66% overall, 53% from Deep which are clearly both aberrations. Miami is coming off a few games against teams that like to play fast or are high scoring yet they’ve stayed below 219 total points in 4 straight. The Heat are one of the slowest paced teams in the NBA at 25th in possessions per game. The Bulls try to play faster, ranking 10th. The Bulls rank 22nd in offensive efficiency at 1.143-points per possession, the Heat are 27th at 1.093PPP. Defensively both rank in the top half of the league in efficiency with the Heat checking in at 6th. The Bulls are 15th. This is the highest number posted on this series in the last 10 meetings. In the only other meeting this season the Over-Under number was 217. We expect the defenses to dominate tonight and a game in the 216 range. |
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12-19-22 | Texas-Arlington v. San Francisco UNDER 137.5 | Top | 68-63 | Win | 100 | 16 h 36 m | Show |
#827/828 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 137.5 Points – UT Arlington vs San Francisco, Monday at 10 PM ET - Defenses are the strengths of both of these teams. Both teams have stronger defensive efficiency numbers and eFG% allowed numbers when compared to their offenses. The shooting numbers for these two are not pretty. UTA ranks 335th in adjusted offensive efficiency, 332nd in FG% and 348th in 3 point FG%. USF ranks 234th in FG% and 247th in 3 point FG%. We don’t expect many 3 pointers made in this one as both defenses rank in the top 60 at defending the arc while both offenses are not good from deep as we mentioned. San Francisco prefers to play up tempo but UT Arlington will slow this game down (262nd in adjusted tempo) which gives them the best chance to stay close. The Dons have played a number of fast paced teams this season which has given a boost to their scoring numbers. However, in the 5 games they’ve played this season vs teams that rank outside the top 200 in adjusted tempo, they’ve topped 130 points only one time. UT Arlington has played 8 games this season vs Division 1 teams and only twice have they scored more than this posted total (currently 137.5) and those games only reached 143 and 144. Those 8 games involving UTA have averaged just 122 total points per game. The Mavericks slow this one down and the defenses take control. Under is the play. |
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12-18-22 | Magic v. Celtics -9.5 | Top | 95-92 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 43 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -9.5 vs Orlando Magic, 3 PM ET - The Celtics were not in a good situation on Friday night when they hosted the Magic and lost outright as a 13-point favorite. They had just come off a big 6-game road trip and a tough OT win over the Lakers. Now we get a much better line with the Celtics in immediate revenge. Boston has the best overall point differential in the NBA and 3rd best average scoring margin when at home of +10.2PPG. They are 11-3 SU at home and 4-1 SU home off a loss. Overall the Celtics are 7-5-1 ATS when coming off a loss. Orlando is just 2-11 SU away from home this season with a negative differential of minus -7.6PPG which is the 5th worst average in the NBA. Boston will settle in at home today and get a blowout win. |
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12-18-22 | Detroit v. Eastern Michigan OVER 157 | Top | 77-79 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
#739/740 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 157 Points – Detroit vs Eastern Michigan, Sunday at 3 PM ET - Two of the worst defenses in college hoops taking the court today in this game and we look for a high scoring affair. EMU’s defense ranks 354th in adjusted defensive efficiency and 359th in eFG% defense (out of 362). They are allowing 82 PPG which ranks them 357th in scoring defense. They’ve allowed at least 80 points in 6 of their 10 games vs Division 1 competition. The only 4 games in which they did not allow at least 80 points were all vs teams ranked outside the top 240 in offensive efficiency. Detroit ranks 60th in offensive efficiency and they are averaging 75 PPG on the season and that’s vs not a single team ranked outside the top 250 in defensive efficiency. This EMU defense will be by far the worst defense the Titans have faced this season and we expect them to get to at least 80 points. The EMU offense is also averaging 75 PPG and they’ve faced only 1 defense ranked outside the top 300 in defensive efficiency (Oakland) and the 2 teams totaled 182 points in that game. Eastern Michigan ranks 54th in adjusted tempo and Detroit ranks 173rd so neither mind playing fast. Detroit loves to shoot the 3 and they do it well hitting almost 40% and they are facing an EMU defense that ranks 225th defending the arc. Defensively Detroit allows almost 40% from deep ranking 353rd so we look for both teams to have success from beyond the arc. Both teams shoot over 72% from the foul line as well which should boost the scoring numbers here. This will be a fast paced, high scoring game and we’ll take the Over. |
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12-17-22 | Mavs v. Cavs -4.5 | Top | 99-100 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 10 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Cleveland Cavaliers -4.5 vs. Dallas Mavericks, 8 PM ET - These two teams just met in Dallas on the 14th with the Cavs winning 105-90 as a +2.5-point Dog. We don’t see anything changing here and expect another double-digit win by Cleveland. In the game the other night the Cavs double-teamed Doncic in the first half and held him to a 9 of 23 shooting night. Overall, the Maverick shot just 39% for the game and were outrebounded by 10. The Cavs shot 53% for the game and dominated in the paint with 52 points compared to 26 for Dallas. Both teams are off games Friday night, but the Cavs are at home while the Mavs have to travel. The venue has a lot to do with this selection as the Mavs are 3-9 SU on the road this season with a negative differential of minus -4.5PPG (9th worst). Cleveland is polar opposite with a 12-2 SU record at home and a +10.4PPG differential which is 3rd best in the NBA. Dallas owns the 27th worst road defensive efficiency and 26th worst OEFF. Dallas is 1-7 ATS their last eight games on the road versus a team with a winning home record. The Cavaliers are 13-2-1 ATS their last 16 at home. Don’t worry about the revenge factor here, bet the home team Cavs. |
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12-17-22 | North Texas v. Massachusetts UNDER 127.5 | Top | 62-44 | Win | 100 | 17 h 15 m | Show |
#637/638 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 127.5 Points – North Texas vs UMass, Saturday at 3 PM ET - UNT is the slowest paced team in the nation in adjusted tempo while UMass likes to play fast. They are also dead last in possessions per game at 59 which is a full 4 possessions lower than the next team. As we’ve said in the past, the slow paced team almost always gets control of the tempo and we expect that here. It’s always easier to slow down a fast paced team rather than speed up a slow paced team. The Mean Green rank 4th nationally in points allowed per game at 52. While we know UNT has been one of the better defensive teams in the country in each of their 6 years under head coach Grant McCasland, UMass is now a defensive minded team as well under new head man Frank Martin, formerly at KSU and South Carolina. His teams were always known for defense and he has already instilled that this year with the Minutemen. The difference is drastic with UMass ranking 89th in adjusted defensive efficiency this season after finishing last year ranked 348th in that category. Neither team shoots the ball great with UNT ranking 308th in eFG% and UMass 212th. The Minutemen have played 3 straight fast paced teams and they’ve only faced 1 team this year ranked lower than 300 in pace and that was Charlotte. The total points scored in that game was 114. These 2 met last year and totaled 123 points and that was when UMass had a terrible defense as we mentioned. It looks like Massachusetts will again be without their leading scorer PG Fernandes with an ankle injury. Defense is the strength of both teams and if North Texas gets the pace as we expect, this stays Under. |
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12-16-22 | Missouri State v. Oral Roberts UNDER 145.5 | Top | 77-80 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 40 m | Show |
#879/880 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 145.5 Points – Missouri State vs Oral Roberts, Friday at 8 PM ET - We were on Mizzou State vs IPFW Under over the weekend and it cashed easily. This MSU team is a dead Under team this far with an 8-1 record to the Under. Their games are averaging 122 total points and they haven’t played in a single game that has topped 140 points this season. The Bears are one of the slowest paced teams in the country ranking 330th in adjusted tempo and they average just 65 possessions per game ranking 352nd. Oral Roberts likes to play fast and you can bet Missouri State will slow this game down taking the Golden Eagles out of their comfort zone. ORU has had some high scoring games but the majority of those have come vs teams that love to play fast as well. Neither team are great on the offensive boards which should limit 2nd chances. Neither team gets to the FT line very much with ORU scoring just 13% of their points from the stripe (344th nationally) and Mizzou State scoring 12.5% from the stripe (354th nationally). The Eagles love to shoot 3’s and have a solid 37% team shooting from deep but MSU is solid at defending the arc allowing just 32%. The Bears also like to shoot the 3 but they are flat out bad at it hitting 29% (315th). These 2 met last year and the total was 150. ORU wanted to play fast and MSU took them out of their game and the total points scored ended up being just 129. If Missouri State gets the pace they want here, which we believe they will, this should stay Under the Total. |
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12-16-22 | Warriors v. 76ers OVER 222 | Top | 106-118 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 222 Golden State Warriors at Philadelphia 76ers, 7:40 PM ET - An average NBA game is 226.4 total points per game. Clearly this number is below that and we don’t see this game being ‘average’. On the season the 76ers are one of the slowest paced teams in the NBA, Golden State is the fastest. Philly though has seen an uptick in their overall tempo with the return of James Harden. In their last five games the Sixers are 15th in pace of play. Not surprisingly, also with the return of Harden the defense of the 76ers has regressed. Golden State is without Curry here but do get Klay Thompson back to anchor the 5th highest scoring offense in the NBA. The Warriors road games this season have averaged 238.1PPG. Philly at home has averaged 218. Golden State has gone Over in 5 straight road games, Philadelphia is on a 4-1 Over streak themselves. It’s not too much to ask both teams to score more than 111-points each. |
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12-15-22 | Suns v. Clippers UNDER 218.5 | Top | 111-95 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 218.5 Phoenix Suns @ LA Clippers, 10:40 PM ET - We successfully played Under last night in the Timberwolves vs. Clippers game and will stay with another Under on the Clippers again tonight. Let’s consider this. Last night the Wolves/Clippers Over-Under number was 221 and the Wolves are the 4th fastest paced team in the NBA with the 17th worst defensive efficiency. The line on tonight’s game is just 3-points higher and the Suns are the 9th slowest paced team in the league and rank 10th in DEFF. The Clippers have the 4th best defensive efficiency rating in the NBA allowing just 1.098PPP. Los Angeles also prefers a slow tempo ranking 8th lowest in possessions per game. This series has seen 5 straight Unders cash, 4 last season and 1 this year with the five meetings averaging just 204.8PPG. Since the start of last season, the Suns are 41-44 Under against other Western Conference teams, the Clippers are 28-46-1 or 62.2% Under. If it’s not broken, why fix it. Bet Under again tonight. |
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12-14-22 | Wolves v. Clippers UNDER 223.5 | Top | 88-99 | Win | 100 | 16 h 3 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 223 Minnesota Timberwolves @ LA Clippers – 10:10PM ET - The Clippers just faced the #1 offensive team in the NBA in the Celtics and the O/U number on that game was 225.5. It finished with just 206 total points. LA has the 5th best defensive efficiency rating in the NBA allowing just 1.104-points per possession. Minnesota ranks 20th in DEFF but do limit foes to just 46.2% shooting which is 9th best overall in the league. The Timberwolves defense doesn’t have to be great though as the Clippers offense is 29th in scoring at 107.9PPG and have the 4th worst offensive efficiency rating in the NBA. The Wolves aren’t a whole lot better offensively ranking 18th in OEFF. Minnesota doesn’t shoot the 3-ball well at 33.4% which is 25th. Minnesota will want to play fast but the Clippers will dictate the tempo they want as the home team and they prefer to play slow (23rd pace). We don’t see this game getting above 216. |
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12-14-22 | UCLA v. Maryland -120 | Top | 87-60 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 34 m | Show |
#664 ASA TOP PLAY ON Maryland -120 over UCLA, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - We really like this spot for Maryland. The Terps started the season 8-0 including 5-0 at home. They have since lost back to back games vs 2 very formidable opponents. Last week Maryland lost by 5 in Madison vs Wisconsin and over the weekend they lost by 3 on a neutral court to one of the top teams in the nation, Tennessee. In their 56-53 loss to the Vols, the Terps made only 2 of 24 three pointers (8%) and were outscored by 15 from beyond the arc but still nearly won the game. Now back at home in a semi desperate situation off 2 losses, we see Maryland playing very well. UCLA has won 5 straight games but they haven’t left the state of California since November 20th. Their only true road game this season was @ Stanford. The Bruins did have 2 neutral site games in November in Las Vegas which is a very short trip and they lost both vs Baylor and Illinois, a team Maryland beat at home already this season. This is a long trip, west coast to east coast, for UCLA and on top of that they have a huge game in New York City on Saturday vs Kentucky. The Bruins get to the FT line very infrequently (12.7% of their points) while Maryland scores 20% of their points at the stripe. That could be the difference here. Both teams also prefer to play inside the arc with UCLA scoring 62% of their points and Maryland 52% from 2 point land. Defensively, the Terps are outstanding defending inside the 3 point line allowing 43% shooting (29th nationally) while UCLA not so much giving up almost 53% shooting (261st). The Bruins lost 4 of their top 6 players from last year’s team and have a number of freshman in their rotation. This will be their first big true road game and we like Maryland to win this one at home. |
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12-13-22 | Celtics v. Lakers OVER 233.5 | Top | 122-118 | Win | 100 | 26 h 6 m | Show |
ASA Top Play on 10* OVER 233.5 Boston Celtics @ LA Lakers, 10 PM ET - The Celtics are the #1 offensive team in the NBA in terms of scoring at 120PPG and efficiency at 1.194PPP. Boston is the best 3-point shooting team in the NBA at 39.7% and rank 8th in 3PT attempts per game. The Lakers are 26th in the NBA in points allowed per game at 116.3PPG. The Lakers are 19th in defensive efficiency giving up 1.127PPP. In the Lakers most recent 5-game stretch they have allowed 122.2PPG which is the highest in the NBA. But, in that same stretch of 5-games they are 6th in scoring at 118.2PPG. Pace of play is important here as the Lakers are the 2nd fastest paced team in the NBA. The Celtics are 15th. Boston has the best Over record in the NBA when playing without rest at 15-4-1 since the start of last season and those games have gone Over by an average of +12.2PPG. |
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12-13-22 | Marshall v. NC-Greensboro +4.5 | Top | 67-75 | Win | 100 | 24 h 24 m | Show |
#604 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UNC Greensboro +4.5 over Marshall, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Marshall steps into this game with a 9-1 record but we feel they are vastly overvalued right now due to that mark. The fact is, they’ve played one of the easiest schedules in the nation thus far with a SOS rank of 348th out of 363 teams. This will be their 3rd straight road game since last Thursday having played Duquesne and Robert Morris (both in Pittsburgh) on the road on Thursday & Saturday. UNCG doesn’t have the record that Marshall does (4-6 SU) but they’ve played the much tougher slate so far this season (Top 100 SOS rank). They’ve also been on the road for 3 weeks as this is the Spartans first home game since November 22nd. They are coming off their most complete performance of the season last Tuesday nearly knocking off Arkansas, the #9 ranked team in the nation, on the road. UNCG led at halftime and the Razorbacks first lead of the 2nd half came with under 9:00 remaining in the game and the final margin of 7 points was the largest of the game for Arkansas. The Razorbacks attempted 33 FT’s in the game to just 11 for Greensboro and the Spartans still nearly pulled the upset. Marshall has some gaudy offensive numbers but they haven’t played a defense with a pulse yet. The Herd hasn’t faced a defense ranked inside the top 140 in adjusted efficiency and 8 of their 10 opponents have defense ranked outside the top 200 in that metric. UNCG ranks 90th in adjusted defensive efficiency and just held a potent Arkansas offense to 65 points, 15 points below their season average. We’re getting value with this number. If this game was played to open the season, UNCG would absolutely be favored with Marshall coming off a year in which they went 12-21 last season. The Herd are in a tough spot here and favored on the road vs a desperate home team that is better than their record. Take the points. |
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12-12-22 | Cavs -5.5 v. Spurs | Top | 111-112 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 9 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Cleveland Cavaliers -5.5 vs San Antonio Spurs, 8:40 PM ET - Even if Donovan Mitchell can’t go Monday we still like the Cavs minus the points. The Spurs are coming off a big road upset win in Miami and now return home where they haven’t had much success this season. San Antonio is 4-10 SU at home with the worst average point differential in the NBA at minus -9.6PPG. Prior to a recent home win over the Rockets, the Spurs had lost five straight at home, all by 5 or more points. The Cavs haven’t been great on the road this season but they are stepping way down in class against the Spurs here. Cleveland is 12th in offensive efficiency this season, the Spurs rank 29th. Defensively things get much worse for San Antonio as the Cavs hold the #1 rating in defensive efficiency while the Spurs are last. There is enough of a supporting cast in Cleveland with Allen, Mobley, LeVert and Garland to make up for the loss of Mitchell here. The Cavs 4-0 ATS streak in San Antonio continues tonight. |
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12-10-22 | Mavs v. Bulls -120 | Top | 115-144 | Win | 100 | 24 h 17 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Chicago Bulls Money Line -120 vs Dallas Mavericks, 8:10 PM ET - Dallas is coming off a huge showdown at home against the Bucks and will have a tough time in the 2nd night of a back-to-back. Chicago meanwhile has been off since Dec 7th. The Bulls recently played a very tough stretch of road games going 2-4 SU. They then returned home and got a solid home win against the Wizards. Dallas is just 3-8 SU away from home this season with a negative differential of minus -2.3PPG. Chicago is 6-5 SU at home with a +1.7PPG average margin of victory. The Mavs are 7-9-1 ATS their last 17 games when playing without rest. Since the start of last season the Mavericks have the 4th worst ATS record in the NBA when it comes to playing out of Conference at 15-24-2. This is a great spot for Chicago and we like them here in a double-digit win. |
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12-10-22 | IUPU Ft Wayne v. Missouri State UNDER 134 | Top | 65-61 | Win | 100 | 23 h 17 m | Show |
#723/724 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 134 Points – IPFW vs Missouri State, Saturday at 8 PM ET - Two bad offensive teams going at it here. They are both ranked outside the top 200 in adjusted offensive efficiency, eFG%, 2 point FG% and 3 point FG%. They are both much better defensively allowing less than 1.00 points per possession on the season ranking them 101st and 115th in adjusted defensive efficiency. IPFW has had a few higher scoring games this season, however those have been vs poor defensive teams that like to play at a fast tempo. In this game, IPFW will be facing a Missouri State team that wants to play slow (321st in tempo) so we expect the host Bears to control the tempo here. When facing teams similar the Mizzou State (slow tempo & solid defensive teams) IPFW has totaled 115 points (vs Northwestern) and 128 points (vs Southern Miss). The only game that Missouri State has played this year that topped 131 total points was vs Detroit which is a fast paced team and the Titans rank 358th in adjusted defensive efficiency and that game only got to 140 total points. In their other 7 games, the Bears are averaging 120 total points. Neither team is adept at offensive rebounding so we don’t look for many 2nd opportunities and both get to the foul line infrequently. This has all the makings of a low scoring grinder and we’ll be on the Under. |
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12-10-22 | Eastern Washington v. South Dakota State -8 | Top | 76-77 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 28 m | Show |
#670 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* South Dakota State -8 over Eastern Washington, Saturday at 5 PM ET - SDSU steps into this one with a 3-7 record but they’ve played one of the toughest schedules in the country to date. Their strength of schedule ranks in the top 20 nationally and of their 10 games thus far, 9 have been on the road or neutral sites. They are coming off 4 straight losses, all away from home vs top notch competition (James Madison, Kent, Arkansas, and Montana). This now becomes a huge game for them and their opponent, Eastern Washington (ranked 231st), will be the 2nd lowest rated opponent SDSU has faced this season. This game is at home for the Jackrabbits and a big step down in competition after already facing 5 top 100 opponents. SDSU is much better than their record as they return 6 of their top 8 players from last year’s team that finished with a 30-5 record and made it to the NCAA tourney. EWU also has a losing record at 4-5, yet they’ve played a much easier schedule (220th ranked SOS) and their 4 wins have come against teams ranked 362nd, 339th, 259th, and 241st. Three of those wins were by 8 points or less despite the easy competition. All 5 of their losses have come by double digits and only one of those came vs a team in the top 85. The Eagles are 1-3 SU on the road this year with their only win coming @ Cal by 2 points on Wednesday of this week. Their other road games were losses by 11, 12, and 20 points. That win a few days ago vs Cal may seem like a big one but the Bears are now 0-10 this year with 3 of those losses coming vs teams ranked outside the top 200. After that road win in California, they are now in South Dakota just a few days later which is not an ideal situation. The Eagles are not great on either end of the court ranking outside the top 200 in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency. They are stepping into a hornet’s nest here with a very solid team in must win mode at home where they’ve won 45 of their last 47 games. We’ll lay the points. |
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12-09-22 | Bucks v. Mavs UNDER 226 | Top | 106-105 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 224.5 Milwaukee Bucks at Dallas Mavericks, 10:10 PM ET - These two teams just met recently in Milwaukee with a total of 216.5. They went over that number with 239 total points. With the adjustment of the O/U we like the value and an Under bet here. In the game the other day both teams shot well above their season averages as the Bucks hit 56% from the field (46.1% season ave), while the Mavs shot 51% (47.2% season average). The two teams attempted 166 total field goals which is significantly lower than the league average of 176.2. On the season the Bucks road games have averaged 213.3 total points per game. Dallas at home has averaged 216.2PPG. Milwaukee owns the #1 ranked FG% defense in the NBA and are 11th in 3PT% D. Milwaukee is average in pace of play and the Mavericks are the 2nd slowest in terms of tempo. Both teams are in the top half of the NBA in defensive efficiency rating too. It all adds up to a less than average NBA score. Bet UNDER. |
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12-08-22 | UMass Lowell v. Massachusetts -2 | Top | 85-80 | Loss | -113 | 14 h 7 m | Show |
#306686 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UMass -2 over UMass Lowell, Thursday at 7 PM ET - UMass Lowell has an impressive 9-1 record but they’ve played nobody. Actually we take the back, the one good team they’ve played this season, Rutgers, beat them by 8 points. Their strength of schedule ranks 356th nationally (out of 363) and 8 of their 10 games this season have come vs teams ranked outside the top 300 or non Division 1 opponents. UMass Lowell’s best win on the season came in a 73-62 win over Brown, the 233rd ranked team in the country. The River Hawks overall offensive numbers are solid but let’s take into account they’ve faced 10 teams this year and 7 of those teams are ranked outside the top 300 in adjusted defensive efficiency or they are non division 1 opponents. The best defense they faced this season, Rutgers, held them to 18 points below their season scoring average and allowed them to make only 42% of their shots and 22% of their 3-pointers. UMass has the 2nd best defense this team will face this season behind Rutgers. The Minutemen have faced the much more difficult schedule and have a similar record at 7-1. Because of UMass Lowell’s hot start, vs poor competition, we’re getting some value here with UMass. The Minutemen faced UMass Lowell last year here and were favored by -9.5 and won by 11. Now we’re getting them at -2 at home vs a program they’ve never lost to. UMass is 5-0 vs UMass Lowell winning by an average of 10 PPG. We’ll take the Minutemen at home on Thursday night. |
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12-07-22 | Pittsburgh +4 v. Vanderbilt | Top | 74-75 | Win | 100 | 16 h 16 m | Show |
#703 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Pittsburgh +4 over Vanderbilt, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - We’re getting some really solid value here with a Pitt team that is better than most think. They have just won back to back road games vs teams that are both better than this Vandy squad. Since losing 3 in a row back in mid November vs 3 very good opponents (WVU, Michigan, and VCU), the Panthers have won 5 straight including wins @ Northwestern (by 29 points) and @ NC State (by 8 points). They’ve covered their last 4 games by a combined 65 points or an average of 16.2 points per game. Vandy has failed to cover 3 of their last 4 games and of their 4 wins on the season, 3 came by 8 points or less with 2 coming by 3 points. The Commodores are just 2-2 at home this year including a 12 point loss to Southern Miss who ranks 180th currently. Not a huge home court advantage for Vandy as their record at Memorial Coliseum since the start of the 2020 season is just 17-17. Vandy’s PPG differential on the season is +1 PPG and they’ve faced 4 top 100 teams this year with a record of 1-3 in those games. Their only top 100 win was by 2 points in OT vs Temple. In what we expect to be a tight game, the FT line will be key. Vanderbilt rarely gets to the line and when they do they only make 61% of their FT’s (332nd). Pitt scores nearly 20% of their points from the FT line (115th nationally) and they make 74% as a team. We have this number set at Vandy -1 per our power ratings so we’ll take Pitt +4 here. |
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12-07-22 | Pacers v. Wolves -3.5 | Top | 115-121 | Win | 100 | 15 h 19 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Minnesota Timberwolves -3.5 vs. Indiana Pacers, 8:10 PM ET - The Pacers are exhausted at this point of the season as they are playing their 7th straight road game and are off a satisfying win over the World Champs Warriors. Minnesota is off a different result as they lost at home to the Thunder on Dec 3rd. They were off a huge game against the Grizzlies who knocked them out of the playoffs last year. Now with 3 days rest and off that loss they’ll rebound with a big effort here. Indiana has a negative differential on the road of minus -4.7PPG and are 2-4 SU on this current trip. Minnesota has a losing home record this season which is a big reason why this line is as low as it is. The Wolves do have a winning record since the start of last season when coming off a loss. They also have a 19-19-2 ATS record at home as a favorite but their average Margin of Victory is +6.9PPG which gets us a cover here. |
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12-06-22 | Mavs v. Nuggets -4.5 | Top | 116-115 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 24 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* DENVER NUGGETS -4.5 vs Dallas Mavericks, 10PM ET - We love the spot to fade the Mavericks here as they are coming off a huge game on Monday night at home against the Suns. Denver meanwhile was off yesterday and is coming off a back-to-back losses on the road in New Orleans and Atlanta. These two teams met in late November in Dallas and split with each team winning a game. The Nuggets played without Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic or 50.1-points per game, 13.8 rebounds per game and 13.8- assists per game and still split with the Mavs. Dallas is just 2-8 SU on the road this season with a negative differential of minus -2.7PPG. Denver is 6-2 SU at home with the 5th best average Margin of Victory of +11PPG. Dallas is 6-9-1 ATS their last sixteen games when playing without rest and the home team has covered 4 of the last five meetings. Lay the points with Denver here. |
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12-06-22 | Illinois +4.5 v. Texas | Top | 85-78 | Win | 100 | 28 h 42 m | Show |
#607 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Illinois +4.5 over Texas, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - This one is being played on a neutral court – MSG in New York City. It’s the first time the Longhorns have left the state of Texas this season. They’ve played all home games + 1 sort of neutral site game in Edinburgh, TX vs a bad Northern Arizona team. Speaking of bad, the Texas strength of schedule is just that ranking outside the top 300. The only 2 top 100 teams they’ve faced are Gonzaga and Creighton, both in their home arena. We were on the Blue Jays +6.5 in that game and they hung tough getting us a cover losing by 5 despite making just 4 of their 27 three point attempts (15%). We really like this Illinois team and feel they will contend for a Big 10 title. They’ve played the much tougher schedule thus far including 1 true road game vs Maryland and a few neutral site games in Las Vegas vs Virginia & UCLA. The Illini have already faced 3 teams ranked inside the top 20 per our power ratings. They’ve beaten a very good UCLA team on the road and crushed Syracuse at home. Their 2 losses came at the hands of Virginia and @ Maryland 71-66 on Friday night. Those 2 teams are a combined 15-0 so far on the season. They match up well with Texas here who can’t shoot outside the arc (314th in 3 point percentage) and likes to score inside. Illinois has allowed opponents to shoot only 41% from inside the arc which is 11th best in the country. The Illini are the much bigger team as well and should control the boards vs a Texas team that has already been outrebounded in half of their games this season despite their weak schedule. Two very good defensive teams going head to head in MSG and we’re taking the points with Illinois in a game we expect to go to the wire. |
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12-05-22 | Suns v. Mavs UNDER 221.5 | Top | 111-130 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 29 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 221.5 Phoenix Suns @ Dallas Mavericks, 8:40 PM ET - We get two of the slowest paced teams in the league squaring off here is what shapes up to be a low scoring game. The Phoenix Suns rank 24th in pace at 97.9 possessions per game. The Dallas Mavericks are slower yet ranking 29th at 95.6 possessions per game. Both teams are top 10 in offensive efficiency but also both top 10 in defensive efficiency. This series has seen the Under cash in 5 of the last six meetings and all six of those games finished with less than 213 total points. This is going to be a half-court game and unless both teams shoot remarkably well it stays under by 10+ points. |
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12-03-22 | Blazers +4.5 v. Jazz | Top | 116-111 | Win | 100 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Portland Trailblazers +4.5 vs. Utah Jazz, 9:10 PM ET - Scheduling clearly favors the Blazers in this matchup as the Jazz are coming off a game last night, plus playing their 6th game in a nine day span. The Jazz are coming off a 20-point win over the Pacers last night but are just 3-3 SU their last six at home. The Blazers last played on Nov 30th, a loss to the Lakers who are clearly playing much better right now. Portland is 7-6 SU on the road this season with a +/- of minus -3.6PPG. Utah is 8-3 SU at home this season, but again they are in a very tough scheduling situation here. Dating back to the start of last season, the Jazz are just 9-9-1 ATS when playing without rest with a +/- of +2.9PPG. Utah is not a trustworthy favorite with a 35-50-2 ATS record since the start of the 2021 season, 3-6 ATS this season with a +/- of +2.8PPG. Portland as a dog is 11-5 ATS with a +/- of -3.4PPG. Grab whatever points are available and don’t be shocked if the Blazers win outright. |
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12-03-22 | Rockets v. Warriors OVER 232 | Top | 101-120 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 232 Golden State Warriors vs. Houston Rockets – 8:40 PM ET - The Rockets are in a tough situation here as are the Warriors. Houston is coming off an improbable upset of the Suns last night in Phoenix as a +11.5-point dog. Prior to that game the Rockets had played 2 straight in the higher altitude of Denver making this their 4th game in six days. Golden State played last night too and will probably rest Klay Thompson and maybe even Draymond Green here. This is the Warriors 3rd game in five days. These same two teams just met in Houston and produced a combined 247 total points. The Rockets defense has been especially bad allowing 119 or more in 7 of their last ten games. Even without Thompson in the lineup for GST the Warriors can still score with Poole and DiVincenzo off the bench. Poole just poured in 30-points last night. Golden State historically has been a great defense under Steve Kerr but that hasn’t been the case this season as they rank 17th in defensive efficiency and give up 117PPG. The young Rockets are starting to figure things out offensively as they have scored 118 or more points in 4 of their last six. Two tired teams won’t play much defense tonight and this goes Over rather easily. |
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12-03-22 | Wisconsin v. Marquette UNDER 136 | Top | 80-77 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 42 m | Show |
#669/670 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 136 Points – Wisconsin vs Marquette, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET - Both teams coming off high scoring games earlier this week which gives us some value on the Under in this rivalry. The Badgers played host to Wake Forest on Tuesday and lost a tight one 78-75 which was easily their highest scoring game of the season. Even with that score factored in, Wisconsin games are averaging just 121 points on the season. IN that game the two teams combined to make over 48% of their shots and over 38% from beyond the arc. Wisconsin head coach Greg Gard was not happy after the game with his defense and you can bet they’ll play very well on that end here. Prior to that game the UW defense had allowed only 1 team to reach 60 points and that was Kansas who scored 63 in regulation. The Badgers held USC to 59, Dayton to 42, and Stanford to 50 to name a few. Marquette lit up Baylor here earlier this week scoring 96 points. However, they also made almost 60% of their shots and they were in a up and down the court game with the Bears who love to play fast. Marquette does as well ranking 27th in adjusted tempo. Wisconsin ranks 303rd in that category and Gard will do everything in his power to slow this game down to keep the Golden Eagles out of their comfort zone. As we’ve said many times, it’s much easier for a team to slow the pace rather than speed up a team that doesn’t want to play that style. We expect a lower possession game here. Both teams are strong defensively ranking 16th (Wisconsin) and 40th (Marquette) in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Golden Eagles have been able to turn teams over and create easy buckets this season but that’ll be tough vs Wisconsin who ranks 21st in offensive turnover rate. Marquette played one team this year that was very similar to Wisconsin in defensive efficiency and pace and that was Mississippi State. That game ended with a final score of 58-55 in favor of the Bulldogs. This one stays Under the total in this intense, in-state rivalry. |
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12-02-22 | Bulls +7.5 v. Warriors | Top | 111-119 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Chicago Bulls +7.5 vs Golden State Warriors, 10 PM ET - The Bulls just played at Phoenix and were plus +5.5-points. Earlier in the same road trip they were plus +7.5-points at Milwaukee. Those two teams are in the top 3 or four teams in the NBA along with Boston. Tonight, Chicago is catching 7-points at the 11-11 Warriors. Granted, the Warriors have been very good at home this season with a 9-1 record and a +11PPG differential, but those numbers are padded with big wins over bad teams. Chicago has the 9th best offensive efficiency ratings on the road this season with a +/- of -2.9PPG. Overall, the Bulls have the 12th best defensive efficiency rating in the league while the Warriors rank 21st and give up 1.137PPP. Off a humiliating loss in Phoenix we like the Bulls to rebound here and keep this game within the spread. |
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12-02-22 | 76ers v. Grizzlies OVER 216.5 | Top | 109-117 | Win | 100 | 8 h 36 m | Show |
ASA Top Play on 10* OVER 216.5 Philadelphia 76ers vs Memphis Grizzlies, 8 PM ET - Both teams are coming off disappointing losses which can largely be attributed to poor offensive play. The 76ers managed just 85-points against the Cavaliers, shooting just 42% overall and 23% from Deep. The Grizzlies turned the ball over 27-times and missed 12-free throws in a loss at Minnesota. We expect both offenses to get back on track here. For the season the Grizzlies have a top 10 offensive efficiency rating overall and when playing at home. The 76ers rank 19th overall in OEFF but have a higher efficiency rating when playing on the road. The 76ers also tend to play faster when away from Philly and give up more points per possession. Memphis has played much faster in their last five games and will want to dictate tempo in this one, forcing the Sixers to also play fast. When Philly is the road team this season those games have averaged 217.2PPG. When the Grizzlies have played at home those contests have averaged 226.9PPG. Let’s not forget that an average NBA game this season has finished with 226 total points which means we need an ‘average’ performance from both teams to cash this ticket. |
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12-02-22 | Appalachian State v. Charlotte UNDER 122.5 | Top | 62-71 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 35 m | Show |
#865/866 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 122.5 Points – Appalachian State vs Charlotte, Friday at 7 PM ET - Low total here for a reason. Two very slow paced teams facing off here and we don’t expect many possessions. Charlotte ranks 362nd (out of 363 teams) in adjusted tempo and App State ranks 260th in that category. Charlotte is 361st in possessions per game and ASU is 179th. The 49ers are coming off a game earlier this week in which they played a very good offensive team, Davidson, who ranks 60th in offensive efficiency and 56th in eFG%. That game went to OT but the score at the end of regulation was 59-59. Now they face an App State offense that ranks 256th in offensive efficiency and 208th in eFG%. Charlotte is far from a great offensive team ranking outside the top 100 in both efficiency and eFG%. Both rank outside the top 200 in 3 point shooting percentage and neither team is adept at offensive rebounding (331st and 286th). Both teams protect the ball committing few turnovers so not many 2nd chance offensive points in this game or extra possessions. We think both teams will struggle to get to 60 here and we’ll take the UNDER. |
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12-01-22 | Mavs v. Pistons UNDER 221.5 | Top | 125-131 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 221.5 Dallas Mavericks @ Detroit Pistons, 7 PM ET - The Pistons just allowed 140-points to the Knicks which has forced the oddsmakers to adjust this line higher than it should be. The Mavericks are the slowest paced team in the league and score just 109.4PPG. They will slow things down and keep them from being a high scoring game. Detroit is 15th or basically average in pace. It’s not like the Mavs are great when it comes to offensive efficiency either as they rank 11th in points per possession. Detroit ranks 23rd in points per possession at 1.099PPP. The Mavs are 9th in defensive efficiency and will limit the Pistons scoring opportunities here. Granted Detroit is 2nd to last in DEFF but you can expect Dallas to do their best to manage load minutes for Luka Doncic and the rest of the starters. Detroit recently played a Cavaliers team that is similar to Dallas in many regards and the game finished with 196 total points. Dallas has allowed point to a few good offenses in recent games (Warriors, Bucks, Celtics) but if you remove those teams they have allowed 105 or less in 5 straight games. The Under is the play here. |
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12-01-22 | Creighton +7 v. Texas | Top | 67-72 | Win | 100 | 18 h 9 m | Show |
#751 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Creighton +7 over Texas, Thursday at 7 PM ET - Texas is 5-0 SU this season but they’ve played one of the easiest schedules in the country. They’ve played only 1 team ranked inside the top 180 and 3 of their 5 wins have come vs teams ranked 260th or lower. Their strength of schedule is currently 342nd after 5 games. Their lone top 100 win was here vs Gonzaga in the grand opening of their new arena and they were favored by 2 in that game. Now they are laying 4.5 to 5 points more vs a Creighton team that is every bit as good as Gonzaga this season. The Blue Jays are 6-1 in the season and they’ve played the much tougher schedule facing 3 straight top 30 opponents beating Texas Tech & Arkansas and losing by 2 points to Arizona. They return most of their key players from team that was 23-12 last year and nearly upended eventual National Champion Kansas in the 2nd round of the NCAA despite missing 2 starters (Nembhard and Kalkenbrenner who are both back). They are tough to guard with 5 players averaging at least 12 PPG and they rank in the top 12 nationally in offensive efficiency, eFG%, and 2 point FG%. The Jays are very good in the backcourt which is key here as Texas thrives on creating turnovers (4th nationally) to help create offense yet Creighton doesn’t turn the ball over very much (17th nationally). Creighton should be able to keep Texas off the offensive boards (9th nationally in defensive rebounding) and off the FT line where their opponents have scored just 8% of their total points. This is absolutely a game the Jays can win and we’re getting significant points. They are very well coached and have had a full week off since losing by a bucket to an undefeated Arizona team. Take the points. |
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11-30-22 | Pacers v. Kings -4.5 | Top | 114-137 | Win | 100 | 21 h 55 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Sacramento Kings -4.5 vs. Indiana Pacers, 10:10 PM ET - The Kings opened the season 0-4 with three of those L’s coming at home and it looked like we were going to see another year of the same ole Kings. They’ve rebounded nicely from that slow start to win 10 of their last fifteen games. Included in that streak is a 7-1 SU home record with some impressive wins over the Heat, Cavs, Warriors and Nets. The lone loss in that stretch was at home last time out against the Suns 117-122. Sacramento has the 11th best average point differential at home this season of +4.9PPG. They have the 2nd best offensive efficiency at home behind the Celtics. Indiana is off a big road win over the Lakers and will likely let down here. The Pacers have a negative differential on the road of minus -1.1PPG which is 20th in the NBA. They have a 5-4 SU road record but only one of those victories came against a team with a current winning record and that is the 11-10 Wizards. I’m buying the Kings here and will lay the points. |
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11-30-22 | Middle Tennessee v. St Bonaventure -2.5 | Top | 64-71 | Win | 100 | 18 h 58 m | Show |
#668 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* St Bonaventure -2.5 over Middle Tennessee State, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - This is a really tough spot for MTSU. They have been in Montreal Canada since last Thursday. They played games in Montreal on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. Now just 72 hours after finishing their last game in Canada, they have to play St Bonnies in Western NY. MTSU won all 3 games in Canada so we’re getting some value here with the number because of that. They beat Hofstra, Stephen F Austin, and Montana State with the last game going to the wire winning 72-71 vs a Bobcat team that now has a 3-5 record. The Blue Raiders have played 2 true road games this year losing both by 8 @ Winthrop and by 24 @ Missouri State, both rated lower than this St Bonaventure team. The Bonnies have some great momentum coming into this game after beating Notre Dame on a neutral court last Friday 63-51. So they’ve had 5 full days to get ready for this one which is a much better situation when compared to Middle Tennessee State. STB have a great home court advantage with a 3-0 record this season and 16-2 since the beginning of last season. Their 2 losses this season both came on the road by 4 in OT and by 4 in regulation. This team has surprised early and they are very close to being undefeated. Mark Schmidt is a terrific head coach who has been at St Bonnies since 2008 and has had winning seasons in 12 of the last 13 years. He’ll have his team well prepared and playing great defense as they rank 50th in eFG% defense and 26th in 3 point FG% defense. We expect a tired MTSU team that is simply ready to get home (they stayed in Montreal after their game on Sunday) and the STB defense will wear them down. Lay the small number. |
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ASA Basketball Top Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
01-28-23 | Knicks v. Nets UNDER 226.5 | Top | 115-122 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 30 m | Show |
01-28-23 | Illinois v. Wisconsin +2 | Top | 61-51 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 10 m | Show |
01-27-23 | Magic +7.5 v. Heat | Top | 105-110 | Win | 100 | 18 h 29 m | Show |
01-27-23 | Detroit v. Robert Morris -2.5 | Top | 77-85 | Win | 100 | 18 h 51 m | Show |
01-26-23 | Mavs v. Suns -120 | Top | 99-95 | Loss | -120 | 21 h 40 m | Show |
01-26-23 | South Dakota v. Western Illinois -5 | Top | 72-75 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 50 m | Show |
01-25-23 | Raptors v. Kings -3 | Top | 113-95 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 2 m | Show |
01-25-23 | Grizzlies v. Warriors UNDER 245.5 | Top | 120-122 | Win | 100 | 9 h 47 m | Show |
01-25-23 | Northwestern v. Nebraska UNDER 130.5 | Top | 78-63 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 42 m | Show |
01-24-23 | Hornets v. Suns UNDER 227 | Top | 97-128 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
01-24-23 | Fresno State v. Boise State -10 | Top | 53-63 | Push | 0 | 20 h 17 m | Show |
01-23-23 | New Mexico v. Nevada -3 | Top | 94-97 | Push | 0 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
01-23-23 | Wolves v. Rockets +5.5 | Top | 114-119 | Win | 100 | 8 h 12 m | Show |
01-22-23 | Nets v. Warriors -7.5 | Top | 120-116 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
01-22-23 | Maryland v. Purdue UNDER 134 | Top | 55-58 | Win | 100 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
01-21-23 | Pacers v. Suns OVER 229.5 | Top | 107-112 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
01-21-23 | Belmont v. Bradley -6.5 | Top | 78-76 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 10 m | Show |
01-21-23 | Nebraska v. Penn State -8.5 | Top | 65-76 | Win | 100 | 13 h 27 m | Show |
01-20-23 | Clippers -7 v. Spurs | Top | 131-126 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 20 m | Show |
01-19-23 | Washington State v. Utah -3.5 | Top | 63-77 | Win | 100 | 18 h 19 m | Show |
01-18-23 | Hawks +3.5 v. Mavs | Top | 130-122 | Win | 100 | 18 h 12 m | Show |
01-18-23 | Duquesne v. St Bonaventure +1.5 | Top | 56-65 | Win | 100 | 18 h 51 m | Show |
01-17-23 | Blazers v. Nuggets UNDER 238.5 | Top | 113-122 | Win | 100 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
01-17-23 | Texas v. Iowa State -2.5 | Top | 67-78 | Win | 100 | 17 h 55 m | Show |
01-16-23 | Florida Atlantic v. Western Kentucky +4.5 | Top | 76-62 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 46 m | Show |
01-16-23 | Raptors v. Knicks UNDER 219 | Top | 123-121 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 58 m | Show |
01-15-23 | Thunder v. Nets -5 | Top | 112-102 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 51 m | Show |
01-14-23 | 76ers -4 v. Jazz | Top | 118-117 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 21 m | Show |
01-14-23 | Texas Tech +9 v. Texas | Top | 70-72 | Win | 100 | 17 h 44 m | Show |
01-14-23 | Providence v. Creighton -6.5 | Top | 67-73 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
01-13-23 | Magic +6 v. Jazz | Top | 108-112 | Win | 100 | 20 h 54 m | Show |
01-13-23 | Eastern Michigan v. Akron -12.5 | Top | 67-104 | Win | 100 | 18 h 19 m | Show |
01-12-23 | Cavs v. Blazers UNDER 223.5 | Top | 119-113 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 49 m | Show |
01-12-23 | Gonzaga v. BYU +7 | Top | 75-74 | Win | 100 | 20 h 23 m | Show |
01-11-23 | Rutgers v. Northwestern UNDER 127 | Top | 65-62 | Push | 0 | 19 h 43 m | Show |
01-11-23 | Pelicans v. Celtics OVER 229 | Top | 114-125 | Win | 100 | 17 h 15 m | Show |
01-10-23 | Illinois v. Nebraska +3.5 | Top | 76-50 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 2 m | Show |
01-10-23 | Hornets +8 v. Raptors | Top | 120-132 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
01-09-23 | Magic v. Kings -6 | Top | 111-136 | Win | 100 | 20 h 12 m | Show |
01-08-23 | Blazers v. Raptors UNDER 226 | Top | 105-117 | Win | 100 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
01-07-23 | Magic v. Warriors -6 | Top | 115-101 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 40 m | Show |
01-06-23 | Hornets v. Bucks OVER 233.5 | Top | 138-109 | Win | 100 | 18 h 28 m | Show |
01-05-23 | Celtics -2.5 v. Mavs | Top | 124-95 | Win | 100 | 8 h 40 m | Show |
01-05-23 | Maryland v. Rutgers UNDER 131.5 | Top | 50-64 | Win | 100 | 18 h 48 m | Show |
01-04-23 | TCU v. Baylor -5 | Top | 88-87 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 26 m | Show |
01-04-23 | Thunder v. Magic -2 | Top | 115-126 | Win | 100 | 7 h 57 m | Show |
01-03-23 | Wizards v. Bucks OVER 228 | Top | 113-123 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
01-03-23 | Nebraska v. Michigan State UNDER 132 | Top | 56-74 | Win | 100 | 18 h 2 m | Show |
01-03-23 | Marquette v. St. John's +2.5 | Top | 96-85 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 54 m | Show |
01-02-23 | Nuggets v. Wolves +2 | Top | 111-124 | Win | 100 | 7 h 11 m | Show |
12-31-22 | Heat v. Jazz UNDER 226 | Top | 126-123 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 29 m | Show |
12-31-22 | Florida International v. North Texas UNDER 127.5 | Top | 57-72 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
12-31-22 | Western Kentucky v. Middle Tennessee -5.5 | Top | 60-65 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 51 m | Show |
12-30-22 | Heat v. Nuggets UNDER 224.5 | Top | 119-124 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 59 m | Show |
12-30-22 | NC State v. Clemson -1.5 | Top | 64-78 | Win | 100 | 13 h 27 m | Show |
12-29-22 | Rockets v. Mavs UNDER 225.5 | Top | 114-129 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
12-28-22 | Boise State v. Nevada UNDER 131 | Top | 72-74 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 28 m | Show |
12-28-22 | Bucks v. Bulls UNDER 231.5 | Top | 113-119 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 19 m | Show |
12-27-22 | Hawks -1.5 v. Pacers | Top | 114-129 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
12-25-22 | Bucks v. Celtics UNDER 225 | Top | 118-139 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 8 m | Show |
12-23-22 | Pacers v. Heat -6 | Top | 111-108 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
12-23-22 | Clippers v. 76ers -3 | Top | 114-119 | Win | 100 | 21 h 17 m | Show |
12-22-22 | Spurs v. Pelicans -7.5 | Top | 117-126 | Win | 100 | 23 h 2 m | Show |
12-22-22 | Seattle University v. Utah State -9.5 | Top | 56-84 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
12-21-22 | Magic v. Rockets UNDER 224 | Top | 116-110 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
12-21-22 | Clemson v. Georgia Tech +1.5 | Top | 79-66 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
12-20-22 | Bulls v. Heat UNDER 223.5 | Top | 113-103 | Win | 100 | 9 h 34 m | Show |
12-19-22 | Texas-Arlington v. San Francisco UNDER 137.5 | Top | 68-63 | Win | 100 | 16 h 36 m | Show |
12-18-22 | Magic v. Celtics -9.5 | Top | 95-92 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 43 m | Show |
12-18-22 | Detroit v. Eastern Michigan OVER 157 | Top | 77-79 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
12-17-22 | Mavs v. Cavs -4.5 | Top | 99-100 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 10 m | Show |
12-17-22 | North Texas v. Massachusetts UNDER 127.5 | Top | 62-44 | Win | 100 | 17 h 15 m | Show |
12-16-22 | Missouri State v. Oral Roberts UNDER 145.5 | Top | 77-80 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 40 m | Show |
12-16-22 | Warriors v. 76ers OVER 222 | Top | 106-118 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
12-15-22 | Suns v. Clippers UNDER 218.5 | Top | 111-95 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
12-14-22 | Wolves v. Clippers UNDER 223.5 | Top | 88-99 | Win | 100 | 16 h 3 m | Show |
12-14-22 | UCLA v. Maryland -120 | Top | 87-60 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 34 m | Show |
12-13-22 | Celtics v. Lakers OVER 233.5 | Top | 122-118 | Win | 100 | 26 h 6 m | Show |
12-13-22 | Marshall v. NC-Greensboro +4.5 | Top | 67-75 | Win | 100 | 24 h 24 m | Show |
12-12-22 | Cavs -5.5 v. Spurs | Top | 111-112 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 9 m | Show |
12-10-22 | Mavs v. Bulls -120 | Top | 115-144 | Win | 100 | 24 h 17 m | Show |
12-10-22 | IUPU Ft Wayne v. Missouri State UNDER 134 | Top | 65-61 | Win | 100 | 23 h 17 m | Show |
12-10-22 | Eastern Washington v. South Dakota State -8 | Top | 76-77 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 28 m | Show |
12-09-22 | Bucks v. Mavs UNDER 226 | Top | 106-105 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
12-08-22 | UMass Lowell v. Massachusetts -2 | Top | 85-80 | Loss | -113 | 14 h 7 m | Show |
12-07-22 | Pittsburgh +4 v. Vanderbilt | Top | 74-75 | Win | 100 | 16 h 16 m | Show |
12-07-22 | Pacers v. Wolves -3.5 | Top | 115-121 | Win | 100 | 15 h 19 m | Show |
12-06-22 | Mavs v. Nuggets -4.5 | Top | 116-115 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 24 m | Show |
12-06-22 | Illinois +4.5 v. Texas | Top | 85-78 | Win | 100 | 28 h 42 m | Show |
12-05-22 | Suns v. Mavs UNDER 221.5 | Top | 111-130 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 29 m | Show |
12-03-22 | Blazers +4.5 v. Jazz | Top | 116-111 | Win | 100 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
12-03-22 | Rockets v. Warriors OVER 232 | Top | 101-120 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
12-03-22 | Wisconsin v. Marquette UNDER 136 | Top | 80-77 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 42 m | Show |
12-02-22 | Bulls +7.5 v. Warriors | Top | 111-119 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
12-02-22 | 76ers v. Grizzlies OVER 216.5 | Top | 109-117 | Win | 100 | 8 h 36 m | Show |
12-02-22 | Appalachian State v. Charlotte UNDER 122.5 | Top | 62-71 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 35 m | Show |
12-01-22 | Mavs v. Pistons UNDER 221.5 | Top | 125-131 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
12-01-22 | Creighton +7 v. Texas | Top | 67-72 | Win | 100 | 18 h 9 m | Show |
11-30-22 | Pacers v. Kings -4.5 | Top | 114-137 | Win | 100 | 21 h 55 m | Show |
11-30-22 | Middle Tennessee v. St Bonaventure -2.5 | Top | 64-71 | Win | 100 | 18 h 58 m | Show |