Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-02-24 | Magic +8 v. Wolves | Top | 108-106 | Win | 100 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Orlando Magic +8 at Minnesota Timberwolves, 8:10 PM ET - This is a solid spot to back the Magic and fade the Wolves in this East vs West matchup. These teams recently met in Orlando on Jan 9th with the Wolves winning 113-92 as a -5.5-point road favorite. At first glance that would mean tonight’s line should be at a minimum -12, but the Magic were missing 3 starters in the earlier clash, hence the lack of adjustment. Orlando is healthy here and playing well with their regular rotation back on the floor. The Magic are 2-2 SU in their last four games and the two losses were by 2-points or less. Orlando is 10-16 SU on the road this season but 8-4 ATS their last twelve as a road underdog. Minnesota is coming off a pair of big Western Conference wins against the Thunder and Mavericks and may let down here against a Magic team they recently beat by double-digits. The Wolves have the 4th best home record in the NBA at 18-4 and own a spread record of 12-8-2 ATS. Both teams are coming off a win in their previous game and it’s interesting how each has done in this role this season. The Magic are 16-8 ATS when coming off a ‘W’ which is the 3rd best number in the NBA. Minnesota on the other hand is 15-16-2 ATS off a win. When we look at each teams last five games we find they are near even in both offensive and defensive efficiency which would indicate these teams are playing much closer right now than the 8-point spread. |
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02-01-24 | Seattle University v. Grand Canyon -9.5 | Top | 88-95 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
#816 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Grand Canyon -9.5 over Seattle, Thursday at 9 PM ET - Grand Canyon is easily the best team in the WAC (only team in the top 100 in that conference) and they sit at the top of the standings with a 9-1 conference record, 19-2 overall. Their only non-conference loss came @ South Carolina by 7 points, a Gamecock team that is now 18-3 and sits in 2nd place in the SEC. Grand Canyon had a chance in that one as they led by 11 in the 2nd half. Their only other loss this season was in conference play vs this Seattle team just 12 days ago. The Antelopes were favored by 5 on the road in that game and now they are laying only 9 (opening line) in this one. We have this one power rated with GC as a 12 point favorite so some nice value here. In that 86-79 loss less than 2 weeks ago, Seattle shot lights out at home hitting 51% of their shots (their average is 43%) and 50% of their triples (their average is 31%). The Redhawks averaged 1.10 PPP in that win against a GC defense that leads the WAC in defensive efficiency giving up only 0.91 PPP. So as you can see, a lot had to go prefect for Seattle to get that win but despite the red hot shooting GC led for most of the 2nd half including with under 2:00 remaining so the 7 point margin was quite deceiving. The Antelopes are happy to be home, where they are 10-0 on the season, after a 3 game road trip. They are facing a Seattle team that is 1-6 SU on the road this season and dating back to last year they’ve won only 2 of their last 13 road tilts. We like Grand Canyon to win this one by double digits and get their quick revenge at home tonight. |
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02-01-24 | Pacers v. Knicks OVER 240.5 | Top | 105-109 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 44 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 240.5 Indiana Pacers @ NY Knicks, 7:40 PM ET - When the Pacers come to town it’s literally like the Circus is arriving as fans will be guaranteed an exciting evening of entertainment. Indiana is the second fastest paced team in the league at 102.6 possessions per game. They love to run and score the 4th most points per game in transition and are the 7th most efficient on the break. The Pacers are the most efficient offense in the league averaging 1.217-points per possession while scoring 124.8PPG. What the Pacers don’t do well is defend. Indiana is 26th in points allowed per possession (DEFF) at 1.197PPP and gives up on average 122.8PPG. The Knicks on the other hand do everything well with the 7th OEFF & DEFF rating on the season. I do see a trend with the Knicks and it’s when the oddsmakers post a Total of 240 or more they tend to be high scoring games. In 5 games involving the Knicks this season with an O/U of 240 or more, all but one has finished with 240 or more points being scored. One of those games was against the same Pacers team and that game had an O/U number of 248 and the two teams combined for 266 points. Indiana and their opponent have totaled 253 total points in 3 of their last four games overall. We will play OVER in this one. |
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01-31-24 | Boise State v. New Mexico -10.5 | Top | 86-78 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 58 m | Show |
#726 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New Mexico -10.5 over Boise State, Wednesday at 10:30 PM ET - No reason to jump off this New Mexico train right now. We were on them on Sunday vs Nevada and the Lobos simply rolled the Wolfpack 89-55. They were favored by -8.5 in that game and now are laying -9 (opening line) vs a Boise team that is rated almost the exact same as Nevada. The oddsmakers are having trouble catching up with how good this team is at home. They are now 11-0 SU at home and 9-1 ATS here at the Pit and going back further they’ve won 28 of their last 32 games here. The Lobos are now rated as the best team in the MWC and #19 overall nationally per KenPom. They have already faced 3 other conference contenders at the Pit and rolled them all beating Boise State by 34, San Diego State by 18, and Utah State (who is alone in first place) by 13. As we stated in our write up for Sunday’s game, the Lobos have led by at least 18 points in every home game but 1 and their margin of victory at the Pit is +24 PPG. After starting 3-0 in conference play, Boise has looked vulnerable over the last few weeks with a 2-2 record and both losses coming at home. Their one road game during that stretch was a tight 4 point win @ Fresno State, the lowest rated team in the MWC. The Broncos offense hasn’t been great in conference play ranking 9th in efficiency and 11th (last) in eFG%. Keeping up with an offense that isn’t shooting well will be a big problem in this game facing a New Mexico team that has averaged 91 PPG on their current 5 game winning streak. The Lobos continue to be undervalued and have the 7th best spread record in CBB at 15-5 (75%). We like them to pick up another easy home win on Wednesday. |
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01-31-24 | Bucks v. Blazers +10.5 | Top | 116-119 | Win | 100 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Portland Trailblazers +10.5 vs. Milwaukee Bucks, 10:10 PM ET - The Bucks haven’t been great off a loss with a 20-19-1 ATS record dating back to the start of last season and an average margin of victory in those games of +4.5PPG. The Bucks are coming off an ‘L’ in Denver on Monday in new head coach Doc Rivers debut. Milwaukee has an overall 11-10 SU road record this season with an average +/- of +1.1PPG. Portland is 8-13 SU at home on the season but 9-8 ATS as a home dog with a negative differential of minus -3.6PPG. The Blazers have been competitive as a home dog with a 6-1 ATS record in their last seven in that situation and the lone loss could have easily been a win against the Bulls just two games ago. In that game the Blazers had a horrible shooting night of 41% overall and 18% from Deep, both well below season averages. If we compare these two teams season averages we see the Bucks hold a massive offensive efficiency advantage but the two teams are even in DEFF. In the last five games of each team though the numbers are very close. The Bucks are averaging 1.166-points per possession, Portland is at 1.151PPP. Defensively, the Blazers are allowing 1.137PPP, the Bucks are giving up 1.119PPP. A lot is going to be made of Dame Lillard returning home to Portland and having a big game, but let’s not forget the Blazers roster is made up of guys out to show Dame he was wrong for leaving. We will grab the double-digits here. |
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01-31-24 | Pelicans -2.5 v. Rockets | Top | 110-99 | Win | 100 | 19 h 11 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans -2.5 at Houston Rockets, 8 PM ET - First off, we know the Rockets have been very good at home this season with a 17-8 SU record on their home court. The situation favors the Pelicans here who come into this game needing a win after 3 straight losses, while the Rockets just beat the Laker at home. The Pelicans 3 most recent losses came against the two best teams in the East at Milwaukee and at Boston. Prior to that the Pels lost to the Thunder. New Orleans is 9-7 SU their last sixteen games, but the 7 losses have come against some of the best teams in the NBA. On the season the Pelicans have faced the 7th toughest schedule to date yet have a winning 26-21 SU record and the 9th best adjusted net rating in the NBA. Houston has been a nice story this season, but their positive results don’t look sustainable with the current roster. In fact, it may be catching up with them as they are 7-12 SU in their last nineteen games. New Orleans should enjoy a sizable advantage from beyond the Arc with the 5th best 3-point shooting team in the NBA compared to a Rockets team that is the 27th worst in 3PT%. The Rockets have beaten the Pelicans twice this season but we are predicting payback here for New Orleans. |
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01-31-24 | St. John's v. Xavier -120 | Top | 77-88 | Win | 100 | 17 h 2 m | Show |
#670 ASA PLAY ON Xavier -1 or Pick -120 over St John’s. Wednesday at 6:30 PM ET - Look for Xavier to play very well in this game after an absolutely embarrassing performance no Sunday @ UConn. The Musketeers lost that game 99-56 in what UConn coach Danny Hurley said was “one of our best performances on both ends of the court”. The Huskies shot 59% overall and 58% from beyond the arc and just missed triple digits. That alone should give Xavier plenty of motivation as they come back home on Wednesday. On top of that, XU already lost @ St John’s in December 81-66 in what was their 2nd worst performance of the season behind their effort @ UConn on Sunday. In that loss @ St John’s they shot just 35% and made only 19% of their triples. The Johnnies might be a bit overconfident after that first meeting and they have a massive game at home on Saturday vs UConn so a flat spot is possible here. The Musketeers have played the #1 most difficult conference slate and the #2 most difficult schedule in the nation overall (per KenPom). They have already faced Houston, Purdue, and UConn (twice) the #1, #2, and #3 teams in the nation per KenPom. XU has only 1 home loss in Big East play and that was a 5 point setback to UConn. They also went to the wire here with Houston (#1 per KenPom) losing by 6 so they’ve shown they can compete with the best in the nation at the Cintas Center. St John’s is just 2-3 SU in road games and in league play the Johnnies are the worst 3 point shooting team (30%) and the worst FT shooting team (69%). With the opening line set at -1 for the host, we simply need Xavier to win this game and we think they will. |
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01-30-24 | San Diego State v. Colorado State -2 | Top | 71-79 | Win | 100 | 19 h 36 m | Show |
#642 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Colorado State -2 over San Diego State, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - After starting the season 13-1, CSU has now lost 4 of their last 6 games and they are in need of a home win. All 4 of their losses during this current stretch came on the road but at home this team has been outstanding. They are 10-1 SU on the season at home and their only loss came by 3 points vs St Mary’s in a game where Colorado State played without 2 of their top 6 players and still almost won. The Rams offense has been deadly ranking in the top 10 in FG% while averaging over 80 PPG. At home this offense has played at another level making 53% of their shots, over 40% of their 3’s, and putting up 85 PPG. Not sure the Aztecs can keep up here as they shoot just 43% on the road and barely average 70 PPG away from home. SDSU has a 3-4 record in true road games and 2 of those 3 wins came vs teams ranked outside the top 100 and both went to the wire beating UC San Diego by 1 and San Jose State by 3. The Aztecs have played the easiest strength of schedule (conference games) and they still have 2 losses. They’ve been outscored by an average of -3 PPG on the road this season and they have a gigantic home game on deck vs 1st place Utah State. CSU has a very solid record of 7-4 SU vs top 100 teams including wins over Creighton, Colorado, and New Mexico. SDSU was in the National Championship game last season and CSU finished with a losing overall record, yet the Rams gave the Aztecs all they could handle here in Fort Collins before losing in OT. CSU is a MUCH better team this season (top 50 team this year / last year outside the top 100) and San Diego State isn’t on the same level as last year’s team. This line opened pick-em and we’re confident that the Rams will get a home win on Tuesday. |
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01-30-24 | Raptors v. Bulls -5.5 | Top | 118-107 | Loss | -113 | 19 h 20 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Chicago Bulls -5.5 vs Toronto Raptors, 8:10 PM ET - This is a rematch of a game recently played in Toronto where the Bulls won 116-110 as a 2-point Dog. The natural swing of the line in this situation should have the Bulls favored by at least 6-points in this game. Chicago is quietly playing very well right now and have won 10 of their last fourteen at home. On the season the Bulls don’t have great overall statistics but when you look at a smaller subset like the last five games, they’ve been solid and three of those games were on the road. In the last five games the Bulls rank 15th in offensive efficiency and 9th in DEFF with an average point differential of +1.2PPG. Toronto has lost five straight games and 9 of their last ten overall. We used the Raptors in their last game at Atlanta as a 6.5-point Dog and felt they could win that game outright, but they came up 2-points short. In the last meeting between these two teams the Raptors had their full complement of starters with Quickley and Barrett healthy, but both will miss this contest. Toronto has some awful road statistics with a 6-16 SU record and an average +/- of minus -4.4PPG. They rank 23rd in defensive road efficiency and 13th in away offensive efficiency. The value is on the Bulls here minus the points, lay it! |
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01-30-24 | Iowa v. Indiana +1.5 | Top | 68-74 | Win | 100 | 17 h 44 m | Show |
#618 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Indiana +1.5 over Iowa, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - IU is in desperate need of win coming off 3 straight losses. However, they just played the 3 best team in the Big 10 in consecutive games (Purdue, @ Wisconsin, @ Illinois) so the losses were not unexpected. The Hoosiers showed some fight in their most recent game @ Illinois on Saturday losing by 8 but it was much closer than that. In fact, 8 points was the largest lead of the game for Illinois and with under 1:00 minute remaining Indiana was down 2 and at the FT line. The Hoosiers didn’t make a single 3 point shot in the game (0 for 9) and were outscored by 5 points from the charity stripe. So between the FT’s and 3 pointers, IU was outscored by 26 points yet still had a shot to win the game in the final minute. We expect them to shoot much better at home where they hit over 48% of their shots including 36% of their triples. IU is 9-2 at home with their only losses coming vs 2 high level opponents, Kansas & Purdue. The Hawkeyes are playing their 2nd of back to back road games after beating Michigan in Ann Arbor on Saturday. Iowa needed a near perfect offensive performance to beat the Wolverines who are reeling to say the least right now losing 8 of their last 9 games, including 4 of those losses at home. Prior to Saturday Iowa was just 1-4 SU on the road but they caught fire in Michigan hitting 53% overall, 50% from beyond the arc, and they were 18 for 18 from the FT line. Now they face a solid Indiana defense who ranks 2nd in the Big 10 (conference play) in eFG% allowed and 1st in 3 point FG% allowed. The Hoosiers may also get forward Ware (14 PPG) back in the line up tonight after missing 2 games. Our power numbers have Indiana as a favorite here and this line opened pick-em. We like Indiana to win this one at home. |
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01-29-24 | Wolves +2.5 v. Thunder | Top | 107-101 | Win | 100 | 20 h 58 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Minnesota Timberwolves +2.5 at Oklahoma City Thunder, 8 PM ET - Scheduling favors the Wolves here as the Thunder are off a game yesterday in Detroit and also playing their 3rd game in four days. They have been on the road in 7 of their last eight games overall. Fatigue will be a factor for the Thunder as they are also playing their 5th game in a seven-day span. Minnesota suffered an upset loss in San Antonio on Saturday night and should be primed for this rematch with the Thunder. Oklahoma City recently beat the T’Wolves in Minnesota on Jan 20th 102-97 as a 3-point Dog. They also beat this Timberwolves team by 23-points earlier this season in December. Prior to that, the Wolves had won 3 straight and 7 of the previous eight meetings. Oklahoma City is a tough place to play and they have a 17-5 SU record on their home court but the Wolves are 15-10 SU away. Both have winning SU records this season when coming off a loss, but the Wolves numbers are a little better at 11-2 SU with an average +/- of plus +12.4PPG. The schedule advantage cannot be overlooked and we will side with the Timberwolves in this one. |
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01-28-24 | Nevada v. New Mexico -8 | Top | 55-89 | Win | 100 | 21 h 4 m | Show |
#864 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New Mexico -8 over Nevada, Sunday at 10 PM ET - We were on Nevada earlier this week at home vs Colorado State in a game they had to win coming off 3 straight losses. The Wolfpack won by 13 (easy cover) but now they are in a tough spot traveling to the Pit in New Mexico to face a red hot team that doesn’t lose at home. The Lobos are a perfect 10-0 SU at home this year (8-1 ATS) and they’ve won every game but one by at least 9 points. In MWC play their home margin of victory is +16 PPG and that includes easy wins over San Diego State (by 18) and Utah State (by 13), the 2 highest rated teams in the conference besides themselves. Their average margin of victory overall at home this season is +22 PPG and they’ve led by at least 18 points at some point in every home game but 1. Going back further the Lobos have now won 27 of their last 31 home games. This is a dominant home team. Nevada is 1-2 SU on the road in conference play with their only win coming @ Fresno State who is ranked as the worst team in the league per KenPom (212th overall). The other 2 MWC road games resulted in a double digit loss @ San Diego State and a 5 point loss @ Wyoming who is rated as the 2nd worst team in the league ahead of only Fresno. As if New Mexico needed any more incentive, this is a double revenger after losing twice to the Wolfpack last year. They lost @ Nevada in double OT and they lost by 1 point at home with the Wolfpack making the game winning shot as time expired. Utah State upset Boise on the road yesterday to move to 7-1 so the Lobos need to win here to stay 1 game out of first place and not drop 2 games behind the Aggies, who we mentioned they already beat here by 13. Lay it. |
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01-28-24 | Raptors +6.5 v. Hawks | Top | 125-126 | Win | 100 | 17 h 20 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Toronto Raptors +6.5 at Atlanta Hawks, 6 PM - The Atlanta Hawks shouldn’t be laying this many points to anyone in the NBA not named the Pistons, Spurs, Wizards or Hornets. This team is lacking effort on the defensive end of the court that is obvious to a casual observer, let alone statisticians. For the season the Hawks rank 27th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.204-points per possession. They just gave up 73-points to Luka Doncic and 148 to the Mavericks as a team. They have allowed 122, 134 and 148 in their last three games. Part of the problem seems to be several trade rumors involving this team which are impacting their on the court chemistry. Atlanta is 8-13 SU at home with a negative differential of minus -3.4PPG. Toronto made their trade when they shipped Siakam to the Pacers for Bruce Brown who should start for the injured Quickly in this one. The Raptors have lost 4 straight games they came against a hot Bulls team, the Knicks and Clippers. The one bad loss in that stretch was at home to the Grizzlies by 8-points. The Raptors were recently +7.5-points at New York and the Knicks are far superior to this Hawks team. Atlanta was an -8.5-point favorite at home against the 10-36 Spurs and the Raptors rate more than 2.5-points better than San Antonio. These two teams have similar offensive efficiency ratings but the Raptors are much better defensively. Grab the points. |
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01-27-24 | Kings -1.5 v. Mavs | Top | 120-115 | Win | 100 | 19 h 24 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Sacramento Kings -1.5 at Dallas Mavericks, 9 pm ET - The Kings have a clear scheduling advantage here with a day of rest compared to the Mavs coming off a game last night in Atlanta. Luka Doncic had a monster night scoring 73-points but was visibly drained in the 4th quarter. Not only is this the second night of a back to back but also the Mavs 3rd game in four nights and 4th in six. Dallas has not done well on the second night of a back to back with a 7-13 SU record dating back to the start of last season. The Kings were off last night and are coming off a big win in Golden State on Thursday night. The Mavericks haven't been great at home with a 13-11 SU record this season and are 6-8-1 ATS as a home dog since the start of last season. In the games they've been a home underdog since last year they have lost those games by an average of -4.9PPG. Sacramento is 20-12-1 ATS dating back to the start of 2022 as a road favorite with an average +/- in those games of +3.7PPG. Earlier this season the Kings beat the Mavs rather easily on this floor by 16 and we expect another double-digit win here. |
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01-27-24 | Idaho State v. Weber State -11.5 | Top | 74-64 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 39 m | Show |
#816 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Weber State -11.5 or -12 over Idaho State, Saturday at 9 PM ET - This game has blowout written all over it in our opinion. Weber State is just 3-4 in Big Sky play, they’ve lost 4 of their last 5 but they are still the #1 rated team in the league per KenPom. Three of their four conference losses have come by 2, 2, and 3 points. Their only poor performance was @ Montana on Monday where they lost by 15. It was bad spot for Weber with their 3rd game in 5 days and now they’ve had since Monday to rest and get ready and we expect a huge home effort on Saturday where they are 8-1 on the season. The Cats only home loss was vs Eastern Washington, who is currently 6-0 in conference play, by just 2 points in a game Weber State led by 13. EWU hit 54% of their shots in that game and 90% of their FT’s and still won by just 2 points. Weber, who is the Big Sky favorite, is in a must win spot at home and playing one of the worst teams in the league. Idaho State is 7-13 overall and just 2-5 in the league despite playing the 266th strength of schedule. They are playing their 2nd straight road game after losing @ Montana State by 7 earlier this week. That was a deceiving final score as the Bengals trailed by 17 in that game with just over 5:00 minutes remaining in the game. They are just 2-9 SU on the road this year and they have won only 8 of their last 43 road games! 7 of Weber State’s 8 home wins have come by double digits and they are averaging 86 PPG at home this year. They are facing that is rated 293rd which is the 3rd worst team Weber has faced this season and the Bengals only average 65 PPG on the road. Big win for Weber State on Saturday night |
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01-27-24 | Kansas v. Iowa State -4 | Top | 75-79 | Push | 0 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
#628 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Iowa State -4 over Kansas, Saturday at 1:30 PM ET - Kansas continues to live on past laurels and remains vastly overvalued in our opinion. They are 16-3 SU but just 7-11 ATS. This team is simply not on the same level as past Kansas teams. They are 4-2 in Big 12 play but have played the easiest conference slate thus far already facing the 3 lowest rated teams in the league (WVU, Okla St, and UCF). They have actually lost to 2 of those teams getting topped by UCF and West Virginia on the road. The Mountaineers are the worst team in the Big 12, they have only 2 wins all season vs top 100 teams and one of those was a 6 point win at home vs Kansas. The Jayhawks have even shown some vulnerability at home struggling to get by TCU by 2 and Cincinnati by 5 on Monday. ISU is also 4-2 but they’ve played the much tougher Big 12 slate (4th SOS in conference play) and their 2 losses were both on the road in very tough venues Oklahoma & BYU. The Cyclones are a perfect 12-0 at Hilton Coliseum, truly one of the toughest places to play in college hoops. That includes a win over #1 Houston (per KenPom). Since the start of last season ISU is 25-3 SU at home including a 15 point win here over Kansas last season who won the Big 12 and was a #1 seed in the NCAA tourney. Last year’s KU team was definitely better than this year’s team and ISU’s team this year is better than they were last season. Iowa State’s defense is very high level ranking 3rd nationally in efficiency and they create turnovers on 27% of opponents possessions (#1 nationally) which is bad news for a KU offense that isn’t great at protecting the ball (132nd). It’s really tough to score on this ISU team allowing 61 PPG (6th nationally) and with the Cyclones averaging 85 PPG at home, you can see why 11 of their 12 wins at home have come by double digits. We project another double digit win here for Iowa State so we’ll lay this small number. |
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01-26-24 | St. Joe's v. St Bonaventure -2.5 | Top | 72-91 | Win | 100 | 17 h 20 m | Show |
#888 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* St Bonaventure -2.5 over St Joes, Friday at 8:30 PM ET - This could be tabbed a must win for St Bonnies after losing 4 of their last 5 games including 2 straight on the road entering this contest. They are 2-4 in A10 play but still power rated as the 3rd best team in the conference per KenPom. Their most recent game was a particularly poor performance @ Duquesne and we expect a strong bounce back at home. In that 4 point loss to the Dukes, the Bonnies made only 27% of their shots, just 15% of their 3’s and 67% of their FT’s. Their season averages in those categories are 46%, 37%, and 78% respectively so it was just a poor shooting performance on the road and they still were in it to the end. STB also played that game without starting guard Adams-Woods who averages 14 PPG and leads the team in assists. He was sick on Tuesday and we would expect him back for this game. The Bonnies are catching St Joes coming off 3 straight wins including an upset @ UMass earlier this week. In that game STJ trailed by 13 points midway through the 2nd half and rallied to make a shot at the buzzer for a 1 point win. The Hawks last 2 wins have come by 2 points and 1 point and prior to their 3 game winning streak they had lost 4 of 5. Before their last second win @ UMass they had lost 3 straight road games. STJ relies very heavily in the 3 point shot and they are facing a St Bonnie defense that allows just 31% from deep (44th nationally). The Hawks hit nearly 50% of their 3’s in their 1 point win on Tuesday and we don’t expect them to be anywhere near as successful from deep tonight. Last season St Bonaventure was a 4 point favorite at home vs St Joes and won by 13. They’ve won 9 in a row vs the Hawks and the last time St Joes won @ St Bonnies was back in 2014 (9 straight losses at St Bonaventure). We like the home team in this must win spot. |
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01-26-24 | Cavs v. Bucks UNDER 238.5 | Top | 112-100 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 238.5 Cleveland Cavaliers at Milwaukee Bucks, 8:10 PM ET - These same two teams just met on Wednesday night with the Bucks winning 126-116 on this same court. The game went Over the Total of 237.5 points. Both teams shot exceptionally well at 51% for the Cavs and 50% for the Bucks. Milwaukee also made 25 of 28 free throws for the game. That game was trending under through 3Q’s until the two teams exploded for 70-points in the 4th quarter. In other words, in a perfect storm these two teams combined for 242 points, and we are betting that doesn’t happen again here. In the 10 previous meetings between these teams, they have topped this Total only two times. The Cavaliers are the 3rd best defensive team in the NBA per efficiency ratings and 16th in OEFF. They are also one of the slower paced teams in the NBA at 98.1 possessions per game. The Bucks prefer to play faster, ranking 4th in pace and are 2nd in offensive efficiency but 19th in DEFF. We expect to see the Bucks defense improve with the new addition of coach Doc Rivers. The Bucks allowed the 4th fewest points per possession a season ago. The Cavs rank in the bottom third of the NBA in 3PT% so they won’t put up points from beyond the arc. The Bucks have the 7th best 3PT% in the NBA but the Cavs defense allows just 35.3% from Deep which is 8th best defensively. With these two teams having just played we expect the familiarity to lead to a lower scoring game. |
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01-25-24 | Kings v. Warriors +2.5 | Top | 134-133 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors +2 or +2.5 vs. Sacramento Kings, 10 PM ET - This line is off, and the value clearly lies with the Warriors at home as an underdog. Golden State played last night but fatigue isn’t going to be a factor as they had 9-days off prior to that. Both teams' most recent opponent was Atlanta. The Warriors beat the Hawks by 22 last night as a 6-point home chalk. The Kings were favored by 8-points at home over Atlanta and won by 15. The outcomes aren’t what matter it’s the pointspread as Vegas is suggesting the Kings are a 2-point favorite on a neutral court. If we examine the three previous meetings this season, we find the Warriors were +1.5 and +3 at Sacramento and were favored by -7-points at home on November 1st. This is a big rivalry after last season’s playoff series and there is no way the Warriors should be home underdogs. Golden State’s Steph Curry has played extremely well against the Kings with a 50 and 41-point game against them in the last four meetings. If we go back to last season and the playoff series, Curry has averaged 33PPG vs. the Kings. Another recent schedule comparison is a Warriors home game against the Nuggets where they were a 4-point dog. Sacramento was also +4.5 points at Phoenix within the past 10-days. Golden State is 8-2 ATS as a home dog dating back to the start of last season. Grab the points as the wrong team is favored in this one. |
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01-25-24 | New Mexico State v. Sam Houston State -4.5 | Top | 67-79 | Win | 100 | 17 h 59 m | Show |
#808 ASA TOP PLAY ON Sam Houston State -4.5 over New Mexico State, Thursday at 9 PM ET - After winning their first 3 games in CUSA play, Sam Houston State lost @ Liberty last weekend. They are 3-1 in league playing having faced the 2nd most difficult conference schedule thus far. The Bearkats have already faced CUSA’s 3 highest rated teams per KenPom and beat 2 of those teams, Western Kentucky & La Tech, at home. NMSU is also 3-1 but they’ve faced the league’s easiest conference slate thus far already facing the 3 lowest rated teams in the conference (besides themselves). The Aggies have also played only 1 road game in conference play which was a 10 point loss @ FIU, the 2nd lowest rated team in the league. Speaking of road games, New Mexico State is 0-7 SU this year in true road games losing by an average of 18 points per game. In a game with a tight spread, FT’s will most likely be key in this one. Sam Houston should have a huge edge at the stripe here as they get their often (22% of their points are FT’s – 48th most nationally) and New Mexico State fouls as much as any team I the country. The Aggies send teams to the FT line an average of 25 times per game (9th most nationally) and a whopping 27% of their opponents points come from the stripe (3rd most in the country). These 2 teams both came over to Conference USA from the WAC so they are familiar with each other. Last year SHSU was a dog @ NMSU and won by double digits. A year earlier the Bearkats were a home dog vs NMSU and again won by double digits. We really like the way SHSU has played against the top teams in the conference already this year and we expect a win and cover for the host in this game. |
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01-25-24 | 76ers v. Pacers OVER 237.5 | Top | 122-134 | Win | 100 | 8 h 60 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 237.5 Philadelphia 76ers at Indiana Pacers, 7 PM ET - This number hasn’t been set high enough and the bet to make is on the Over the Total. Indiana just faced a Nuggets team that plays much slower than the 76ers and that O/U number was essentially the same at 237. Philadelphia is 5th in offensive efficiency this season averaging 1.207-points per possession and rank 15th in pace of play. The Indiana Pacers are 2nd in pace of play at 102.6 possession per game and rank 1st in OEFF while scoring on average 124.6PPG. Indiana also allows the 2nd most points per game at 122.9PPG and rank 26th in DEFF. Philadelphia is coming off a 133-123 win over the Spurs who play at the same frenetic pace as the Pacers and are equally as bad defensively. In the two meetings between these two teams this season they have produced 263 and 258 total points. Even without Haliburton for the Pacers we like a higher scoring game here. Bet Over! |
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01-24-24 | Colorado State v. Nevada -2.5 | Top | 64-77 | Win | 100 | 18 h 16 m | Show |
#732 ASA TOP PLAY ON Nevada -2.5 over Colorado State, Wednesday at 10:30 PM ET - Nevada won 15 of their first 16 games this season and now they’ve lost 3 straight so we look for a huge effort at home tonight. Their last 2 losses were both on the road and now they are back home where the Wolfpack are 9-1 this season and 24-2 SU since the start of last season. Nevada was favored by 4 at home vs CSU last year and won by 11 and going back further they’ve won 7 of their last 8 home games vs the Rams. Colorado State is coming off back to back home wins but they weren’t impressive in those games. It took OT for CSU to top a poor Air Force team as a 15.5 point favorite and then on Saturday they trailed UNLV for most of the 2nd half before taking their first lead with 2:30 remaining and pull out a come from behind 3 point win. The Rams are 0-2 on the road in conference play losing @ Utah State and @ Boise State, 2 teams ranked almost identical to this Nevada squad. The Wolfpack defense, which has been very good all season, was atrocious in their most recent game (a loss @ Wyoming) giving up their season high in points and shooting percentage. We expect a huge emphasis and bounce back on that end of the court tonight at home where they are allowing just 61 PPG on 38% opponents shooting. CSU’s overall offensive efficiency numbers are very good, however they’ve dropped off considerably since starting MWC play ranking 6th in the conference in efficiency. This is a huge game for Nevada, one of the favorites to win the MWC, as they are 2-3 in conference play and travel to New Mexico this weekend. |
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01-24-24 | Cavs v. Bucks -6.5 | Top | 116-126 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Milwaukee Bucks -6.5 vs. Cleveland Cavaliers, 8:10 PM ET - The Bucks have moved on from first year head coach Adrian Griffin after starting the season 30-13. The main reason for the firing was the Bucks lack of defense as they dropped from 4th in defensive efficiency from a year ago to 22nd this season. Interim coach Joe Prunty will take over in the short term as it looks like the Bucks will bring in vet Doc Rivers. Coaching won’t have a lot to do with tonight’s game, the players will. Milwaukee was just embarrassed on Jan 17th in Cleveland by 40-points, a 95-135 loss that is still fresh in their minds. Going back to December 29th, the Bucks beat the Cavs on their home court 119-111. In the most recent Cleveland win, the Cavs got a ‘unicorn’ night from George Niang who shot 13 of 14 from the floor in scoring 33-points. We are betting the short-handed Cavs don’t get another performance like that from Niang tonight in Milwaukee. The Bucks are 19-4 SU at home on the season with an average +/- of +7PPG. They have won 3 straight at home against quality competition in the Celtics, Warriors and Kings. Cleveland is playing very well right now with 8 straight wins, but other than the win against the Bucks, they haven’t beaten a team in that stretch of games with a winning percentage better than .524. Three of the Cavs last eight wins have come against the Wizard and Spurs who combined have 15 wins between them on the year. This one will get ugly early! |
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01-24-24 | Davidson v. St. Louis -1.5 | Top | 84-61 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 54 m | Show |
#688 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* St Louis -1.5 over Davidson, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - We were on St Louis last Friday and they lost @ VCU but we’re going back to the well with the Billikens at home on Wednesday night. Despite their loss @ VCU, as we stated in that game’s analysis we still feel STL is undervalued right now with their 8-10 overall record. They are finally healthy after having clusters of injuries this season to 4 of their top 7 scorers who have all missed time this season. They’ve been a full strength for just 3 games now and the 2 prior to losing @ VCU they played very well beating a good St Joes team at home and then took the best team in the A10, Dayton, to the wire on the road losing by just 5 points. Both these teams are 1-4 in conference play but STL has played the tougher slate (2nd SOS in conference play) already playing 3 of the 6 teams in the A10 that rank inside KenPom’s top 100. In their only home game at full strength, the Billikens topped a very good St Joe’s team that is 12-6 and ranks as the 4th best team in the Atlantic 10. Davidson has won only 1 conference game as well but they’ve played 3 of their 5 league games at home and already faced 3 of the 5 lowest rated teams in the A10. The Wildcats are not a good shooting team this year ranking outside the top 200 in both over shooting percentage and 3 point percentage and they’ve been a bit lucky with opponents making only 65% of their FT’s vs Davidson this season. STL is one of the better 3 point shooting teams in the country (top 40 in percentage) and at home they are even better hitting 42% of their triples. With this line set at around a pick-em, we like the Billikens to win this game at home. |
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01-23-24 | Nuggets v. Pacers UNDER 240.5 | Top | 114-109 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 240.5 Denver Nuggets @ Indiana Pacers, 7:10 PM ET - The Pacers are returning home after a long 6 game West Coast road trip and one of those games was a date in Denver. The Books posted an Over-Under on that game of 239.5 and the game finished with 226 total points. Granted, Tyrese Haliburton did not play in that game and is expected to be in the lineup tonight but we still like the value with the Under. In that most recent game, the Pacers shot 47% in making 43 of 92 field goal attempts. Denver shot extremely well at 65%, making 46 of 71 from the field. The main statistic here is the number of field goal attempts which was well below league average. Indiana relies heavily on their transition offense or fast break points as they average the 4th most in the league at 17 per game. Denver allows the 9th fewest transition points per game at 13.5ppg. Indiana is the 2nd fastest paced team in the NBA at 102.9 possessions per game but in their last five games that average dips to 100.2. The Nuggets prefer a much slower tempo, ranking 29th in the league with an average of 97.5 possessions per game. In each teams last five games they have been above average in terms of defensive efficiency. We don’t see the Pacers having much energy in their first game home after the extended travel and the Nuggets prefer a much slower pace to begin with. We will be this on Under the number. |
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01-23-24 | UAB v. Charlotte -4 | Top | 70-76 | Win | 100 | 14 h 0 m | Show |
#622 ASA TOP PLAY ON Charlotte -4 or -4.5 over UAB, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Charlotte is 8-1 at home this season and they are on a nice 5 game winning streak. During that 5 game streak they’ve beaten FAU and North Texas, 2 of the 4 teams rated in the top 75 nationally from the AAC conference. FAU is the top team in the league and currently ranked 26th by KenPom. The 49ers have been waiting for this game after losing at home in double OT to UAB last March. The Blazers were a top 50 team last year with a 29-10 overall record but their ranked 100 spots lower this year after losing 6 of their top 7 players from that team. UAB has won 8 of their last 9, however 6 of those games came at home and only 1 of those wins was vs a top 100 team. That was a 1 point win at home vs Drake. The other top 100 team the faced during that 9 game run was FAU who beat the Blazers by double digits. UAB does have a 3-2 SU road record but their 3 wins have come vs UTSA by 2 points (lowest rated team in the AAC), vs Middle Tenn State by 1 point (ranked outside the top 300), and vs Alabama A&M (one of the 10 lowest rated teams in the country). Charlotte has played a top 90 schedule this season (UAB outside the top 150 in SOS) yet the 49ers still have better shooting percentages on offense & defense. They have a huge edge defensively ranking in the top 65 in eFG% allowed and allowing just 64 PPG on the season (top 20) while UAB ranks outside the top 220 in eFG% allowed and they give up 75 PPG. Charlotte is outscoring their opponents at home by +14 PPG and they’ve won 30 of their last 38 home games. We like the 49ers at home vs the overvalued Blazers on Tuesday night. |
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01-22-24 | Bulls v. Suns UNDER 229 | Top | 113-115 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 229 Chicago Bulls @ Phoenix Suns, 9 PM ET - The Suns are coming off a high tempo game last night against the Pacers with the starters seeing extended court time. They will gladly play at a much slower pace tonight against the Bulls. Over their last five games the Bulls are 25th in pace of play at 96.1 possessions per game. On the season the Bulls are THE slowest team in the league at 96 possessions per game. Contrary to what you might think, the Suns actually play slower, also ranking 28th in pace on the season and 17th in the last five games. Both teams rate right around the league average in defensive efficiency allowing 1.154-points per possession. On the season the Suns rate above average in offensive efficiency, Chicago is well below. In recent action the Bulls are 16th in OEFF, the Suns are 17th. Chicago is missing one of their scorers as Zach LaVine is out tonight with an ankle injury. LaVine is averaging 19.5PPG on the season and shooting over 45%. The Suns have played Under the total in 3 straight games and 4 of their last five. After a stretch of 4 straight Overs the Bulls have now stayed below their posted Total in 2 of their last three. In the other meeting this season these two teams combined for 231 in overtime but had just 219 in regulation. The O/U on that game was 218 so you can see for yourself the added value here. Bet UNDER. |
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01-21-24 | Pacers v. Suns -4.5 | Top | 110-117 | Win | 100 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on #572 Phoenix Suns -4.5 vs. Indiana Pacers, 8 PM ET - Phoenix is starting to jell now that they have a relatively healthy roster and look like the team many expected them to be this season. The Suns have won 4 straight games with an 18-point win at the Lakers, an 11-point win at Portland, a solid home win over the Kings and then a W at New Orleans. Indiana is playing their 6th straight road game and coming off a poor showing in Portland. The Pacers also lost by 8-points in Denver and by 27 in Utah on this road trip. Granted they did not have Haliburton for most of this trip, but he did play in their most recent game in Portland. Indiana has one of the worst road defensive efficiency numbers in the NBA as they allow 1.224-points per possession (27th). The Suns season statistics aren’t an accurate indicator for this team as the Big 3 of Beal, Durant and Booker have barely played together. Now that all 3 are on the floor we expect their numbers to improve dramatically including their 3-point percentage which is 37.6% and 9th best in the league. The Pacers are 23rd in the league in defending the 3PT line allowing 37.8%. The Suns were recently a 4.5-point home favorite against the Kings, the same line we have here. That same Kings team just hosted the Pacers and were 8-point favorites. That tells us the value is on the Suns in this home game at a bargain price. |
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01-21-24 | Wichita State +4.5 v. South Florida | Top | 68-72 | Win | 100 | 9 h 60 m | Show |
#837 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Wichita State +4.5 over South Florida, Sunday at 2 PM ET - Wait a minute? A team that has won 8 of their last 9 games (USF) is at home and facing a team that has lost 6 in a row (Wichita St) and the host is laying only 4.5 points? Looks way too easy to grab USF here and we’re siding with the dogs. Despite their records (Wichita is 8-9 / USF is 10-5) we have these 2 teams power rated dead even on a neutral court. The Shockers have played the MUCH tougher schedule (64th SOS) and 5 of their last 6 games have come vs top 100 opponents. They just gave Florida Atlantic (ranked 25th per KenPom) all they could handle on the road before losing by 9. Wichita led that game by 11 at half and the first lead FAU was able to grab in the 2nd half came with just 6:00 remaining in the game. While the Shockers have been playing high level opponents over the last month, USF has played 1 top 100 team since December 9th and their overall strength of schedule ranks outside the top 300. Their one game vs a top 100 opponent over the last month just happened to be on Thursday night when they pulled the 74-73 upset @ Memphis. It was a game that USF trailed by 20 points in the 2nd half and at that moment they had right around a 1% chance of winning the game according to KenPom metrics. They used a massive amount of physical and emotional energy making that huge comeback on Thursday and we feel a letdown is in order here. Despite Wichita playing a SOS over 200 spots higher than South Florida, the Shockers shoot the ball better on offense (45% to 43%) and allow a lower percentage defensively (42% to 43%). Last year Wichita was +1 in this game @ USF and won by 4. Now they are getting 4.5 points (opening line) and we give them a great shot at winning this one. |
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01-20-24 | Virginia v. Georgia Tech +2 | Top | 75-66 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
#760 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Georgia Tech +1.5 or +2 over Virginia, Saturday at 6 PM ET - We faded Virginia on the road last week @ Wake Forest and the Deacs rolled to an easy 19 point win. That dropped UVA’s record in true road games to 0-4 SU and ATS with every loss coming by at least 16 points. Their home vs road splits are as drastic as any team in the country. The Cavs are averaging only 54 PPG on 37% shooting away from home this season. Their normally stellar defense gives up 74 PPG on 49% shooting in road games. They’ve lost their 4 road games to the spread by 80 total points or an average -20 point ATS per game. We’re getting some value here with Tech because they’ve lost 5 of their last 6 games. However, only 1 of those would be considered a bad loss (lost in OT @ Notre Dame) and their most recent game was a win @ Clemson (ranked 39th per KenPom) as a double digit underdog. Their game prior to that the Yellow Jackets lost @ Duke by 5 but led the Blue Devils by double digits in the 2nd half despite getting shafted by the refs (not a surprise at Cameron Indoor Stadium) with a -12 made FT margin. Speaking of the Blue Devils, this Georgia Tech team already beat Duke here at home earlier in the season. Until UVA proves they can win, or even stay close, on the road, we’ll continue to fade them. Especially when they open as a road favorite vs a more than competent Ga Tech team. |
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01-20-24 | Louisiana Tech v. Jacksonville State +4 | Top | 74-57 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
#742 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Jacksonville State +3.5 or +4 over Louisiana Tech, Saturday at 5 PM ET - We think we have some very solid value with JSU here as our power ratings have them as a small favorite and the opening line was La Tech -2.5. The Gamecocks are undervalued and on the rise winning 6 of their last 7 games. They’ve also covered 5 of their last 6 and JSU’s only loss during that stretch was their most recent game (last Saturday) @ Western Kentucky, a game they led by 10 in the 2nd half but lost. Included in that 7 game stretch was a 10 point win @ Liberty (as an 11 point dog) who is rated as the best team in CUSA. La Tech just played host to that same Liberty team and won in OT in a game the Bulldogs trailed pretty much throughout despite the win. LT is just 3-6 SU in their true road games with 2 of those wins coming vs teams ranked outside the top 300. JSU’s defense is high level allowing just 62 PPG (12th nationally) and at home that drops to 59 PPG. They put lots of pressure on opposing teams with a defensive turnover rate of 19% which is a bad match up for the La Tech offense that coughs up the ball 19% of the time (263rd nationally). That should lead to extra possessions for the Gamecocks who shoot 49% from the field at home while averaging 77 PPG. La Tech has never played at this venue and we expect Jacksonville State to win this game at home. Take the points. |
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01-19-24 | Hawks v. Heat -6.5 | Top | 109-108 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Miami Heat -6.5 vs. Atlanta Hawks – 8:10 PM ET - This is certainly a tough scheduling spot for the Hawks who are coming off a game last night versus the Magic while Miami is rested. It took a buzzer beating shot by Dejonte Murray to steal that victory last night and we’re betting they have a tough time getting back up for this game tonight. When Miami last played they were blown out in Toronto 121-97. The Heat rank 11th in defensive efficiency rating but they struggled to get stops against the Raptors and allowed 20 made 3-pointers. Prior to that loss the Heat had won 3 straight games and are finally getting healthy Butler, Adebayo and Herro all in the lineup. These teams met in December with the Heat winning 122-113 at home as a 1-point chalk. Miami played without Butler in that game and still won by 9-points. The Hawks haven’t been a great road team this season with a negative differential of minus -1.7PPG and a 9-12 SU record. Miami has had a ton of missed games by starters this season yet still have a home record of 12-7 SU and an average +/- of plus 1.2PPG. Miami has been very good when coming off a loss with a 61% win rate dating back to the start of last season. Atlanta is one of the worst teams in the NBA when playing without rest with a 5-15 SU record in their last 20. Miami has won outright 7 of the last ten meetings and will get a double-digit win here. |
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01-19-24 | St. Louis +8.5 v. VCU | Top | 61-85 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 26 m | Show |
#873 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* St Louis +8.5 over VCU, Friday at 7 PM ET - St Louis is an undervalued team right now in our opinion with an 8-9 overall record and just 1-3 in the Atlantic 10. That’s because this team is finally healthy after having a number of injuries this season. Four of their top seven scorers have missed time this year due to injury. Top guard Parker has been back for 2 games after missing 9 in a row and starting center Ezewiro, a transfer from Georgetown, missed the first 11 games of the season and has scored double digits in every game since his return. Meadows and Hughes are 2 other key players who have missed time this season. They have had all hands on deck for their last 2 games and played very well beating a good St Joes team at home and then taking by far the best team in the A10, Dayton, to the wire on the road on Tuesday losing by just 5 points. The Billikens held tough with the Flyers despite attempting just 7 FT’s compared to 29 for Dayton. Now they take on a VCU team that is rated the 4th or 5th best team in the A10 and is 2-2 in league play with both wins coming to the wire (wins by 4 & 6 points). VCU has also struggled at home this season already losing 5 games on their home court. The Rams average margin of victory this year is +6 points and they’ve won 4 games by more than 12 points this season and 3 of those 4 wins came vs teams ranked 220 or lower. We like St Louis to give VCU all they can handle in this one so we’re grabbing the generous points. |
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01-18-24 | Western Kentucky v. New Mexico State -125 | Top | 70-72 | Win | 100 | 16 h 47 m | Show |
#810 ASA PLAY ON New Mexico State pick-em -125 over Western Kentucky, Thursday at 9 PM ET - This is an interesting line to say the least. It opened with NMSU as a pick-em at home despite the fact that WKY has won 9 of their last 10 games and New Mexico State has a losing record and they’ve won only 4 of their last 12. Looks pretty easy to take the Hilltoppers here based on that but there is a reason this game is near a pick-em rather than WKY favored. We wouldn’t be at all surprised if New Mexico State goes off as the favorite here. The Aggies have played the much tougher schedule thus far (45th SOS compared to WKY 232nd SOS) and they’ve been very tough at home going 7-1 SU this year. Their only loss at home was by 1 point to a very good New Mexico team who is currently ranked 32nd in KenPom rankings. They’ve already faced 4 top 100 teams and 7 teams ranked in the top 150. Western Kentucky, on the other hand, has faced 1 team this entire season that is currently ranked in the top 140. NMSU new head coach Hooten, who came over after a very successful 13 year run at Sam Houston State, took some time to get this team acclimated and playing the type of basketball he wants. They struggled big time early in the season but they’ve now won 2 of their last 3 games and even in their losses they’ve been competitive with 3 of their last 4 setbacks coming by 6 points or less. NMSU has played 8 home games this year and their average winning margin is 75-58. With the Aggies joining CUSA this year after being in the WAC last season, this is the first time WKY has had to make the long 1,500 mile trek from Bowling Green KY to Las Cruces NM. There is a reason the 7-10 team is favored (or close to pick-em) over the team that has a 13-4 record. Take New Mexico State here. |
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01-18-24 | Florida International v. Liberty -12.5 | Top | 69-78 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
#768 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Liberty -12.5 over FIU, Thursday at 7 PM ET - Despite the Flames sitting as a double digit favorite, we’re still get value on them in this game. That’s because they’ve lost 3 straight and sit at 0-3 in CUSA play (first year in CUSA) after winning the Atlantic Sun conference with a 15-3 record last year. They have plenty of experience back off that team that went 27-8 last year with 5 of their top 7 rotation guys back. Two of their three losses over the last week and half have come by 2 points and in OT and all 3 were vs top 150 teams. They’ve faced a top 100 schedule so far this season including the most difficult in Conference USA. In Liberty’s most recent home game, they were favored by 11 vs a Jacksonville State team that ranks more than 100 spots higher than this FIU team yet the spread vs the Panthers on Thursday is only 1 or 2 points higher. FIU has a 7-11 record despite playing a much easier schedule (276th SOS) but they’ve won 2 in a row, both at home vs teams ranked outside the top 220, thus the lower number. Liberty is a very good shooting team, top 100 in eFG% and offensive efficiency, and they are facing a terrible FIU defense that ranks outside the top 340 in eFG%, 2 point FG%, and 3 point FG% defense. The Panthers allow 84 PPG on the road and they are facing a Liberty offense that puts up over 80 PPG at home while limiting their opponents to just 50 PPG. The Flames, despite their 0-3 conference record, are still the highest rated team in CUSA per KenPom. They have a home record of 37-5 SU since the start of the 2021 season and this is an absolute must win for them at home. Big win here for Liberty. |
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01-17-24 | Bucks -3.5 v. Cavs | Top | 95-135 | Loss | -115 | 16 h 11 m | Show |
ASA top play on #503 Milwaukee Bucks -3.5 or -4 @ Cleveland Cavaliers, 7:40 PM ET - The Cavs have won 5 straight games, but they’ve come against 19-23 Bulls, 16-23 Nets, 7-32 Spurs and two wins against the 7-32 Wizards. So, let’s not be fooled by this current Cavaliers stretch of wins. The Bucks on the other hand have won 3 straight against the Celtics, Warriors and Kings. Milwaukee is the superior team here offensively ranking 3rd compared to the Cavs ranking 20th. Cleveland does hold the advantage defensively with the 5th best overall rating compared to the Bucks at 15th. Milwaukee has the 3rd best 3-point percentage in the league while the Cavs rank 10th in 3PT% defense. The Cavs are 26th in the NBA in 3PT% shooting and won’t make many against the Bucks defense that is 2nd in the league in defending the 3-point line. In fact, in the most recent meeting between these two teams the Bucks held the Cavs to 6 of 43 on 3-point field goals. The Cavaliers are still without dynamic PG Garland and starting Center Mobley and simply don’t have the depth to hang with Milwaukee at near full strength. Lay the points on the road. |
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01-17-24 | Virginia Tech v. Virginia -3.5 | Top | 57-65 | Win | 100 | 16 h 38 m | Show |
#702 ASA TOP PLAY ON Virginia -3.5 over Virginia Tech, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - Love this spot for UVA who is coming off 2 straight losses, both on the road, and now coming home where they are 9-0 on the season. Va Tech is trending down with a 5-5 SU record since late November and they’ve beaten 1 top 100 team since November 26th. The Hokies are 0-4 in true road games this season with 3 of those losses coming by double digits. In their road games this season Va Tech is barely making 40% of their shots and averaging just 64 PPG. We don’t anticipate them breaking out on the road here vs a Virginia defense that ranks 19th nationally in defensive efficiency and is holding their opponents to a paltry 49 PPG at home. The Hokies are a good FT shooting team and they really rely in getting to the charity stripe (70th nationally in % of points from the FT line) but the Cavs rarely foul allowing opponents only 9 made FT’s per game at home. We went against UVA on the road on Saturday @ WF and they were rolled by double digits. This is a different team at home where they are winning by an average of +25 PPG with a 7-2 ATS record. UVA was favored by 5 here last year and won by 10 and we see a similar final score on Wednesday night. Lay it with Virginia. |
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01-16-24 | Kings v. Suns -5 | Top | 117-119 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 50 m | Show |
ASA play on Phoenix Suns -5 vs Sacramento Kings, 9 PM ET - The Suns grade out below the Kings in most season long statistical categories, but they’ve played most of the season without their ‘big 3’ of Booker, Durant and Beal on the floor together. They are finally healthy so we are starting to see what this roster can potentially do. They are coming off 2 straight road wins over the Lakers and Blazers and now catch a Kings team playing their 5th straight road game. Sacramento is off a demoralizing last second loss to the Bucks when Dame Lillard hit a deep 3-pointer with no time on the clock. The big edge we like for the Suns in this game will be 3-point shooting. The Suns are 11th in the league in 3-point percentage (even with the injuries) at 37.4%. The Kings are second to last in the NBA in opponents 3PT% allowed. The Suns are also one of the best defensive rebounding teams in the league, so the Kings won’t get many second chance opportunities here. You can expect the Suns to steadily trend up as they become accustomed to playing with each other so tonight is a ‘buy low’ opportunity with Phoenix. |
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01-16-24 | Purdue v. Indiana +10.5 | Top | 87-66 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 44 m | Show |
#618 ASA TOP PLAY ON Indiana +10.5 over Purdue, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Purdue has shown some serious vulnerability on the road this season. They have played 3 true road games this season losing 2 of those games @ Northwestern and @ Nebraska. Their only true road win was @ Maryland in a game the Terps hit only 33% of their shots overall, just 23% of their 3’s and made only 6 FT’s. Now they face their rival IU who is 9-1 at home with their only loss at Assembly Hall coming by 4 points vs Kansas in a game where the Hoosiers led for much of. IU has been very solid offensively at home hitting nearly 50% of their shots while scoring 77 PPG. They should be able to keep up in this one vs a Purdue defense that has allowed 78 PPG on the road this year. The Boilers defense has allowed at least 78 points in each of their last 3 games and in Big 10 play they are giving up an average of 76 PPG in their 6 Big 10 games this season. It will be tough for Purdue to pull away in this one. On the other end of the court the IU defense has been very good at home allowing just 68 PPG on 39% shooting. Only 3 of their 10 opponents have been able to top 70 points at Assembly Hall. Indiana topped Purdue here last year by 5 points as a 1.5 point favorite and now they are near a double digit dog just one year later. This is the largest home dog role for Indiana vs Purdue since the 2009 season. 11 of the last 15 meetings between these 2 rivals have resulted in single digit win margins and we expect another one here. Take the points with Indiana. |
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01-15-24 | Pacers +7.5 v. Jazz | Top | 105-132 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 31 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Indiana Pacers +7.5 at Utah Jazz, 9 PM ET - This line is grossly inflated with the Jazz current success and the fact that the Pacers are coming off a game in Denver last night. The Pacers gave extended minutes to their bench players yesterday so fatigue shouldn’t be a factor here. Utah has ripped off 5-straight wins, but they are coming off a big win over the Lakers and have two huge games on deck against the Warriors and Thunder. Looking at recent home games for the Jazz they were favored by -8.5-points against the 3-36 Pistons. Now they are laying nearly that same number against the 23-16 Pacers. Utah has been a solid home favorite this season with a 5-1 ATS record, but the Pacers are a profitable 13-9 ATS as an underdog this season. These two teams have similar strength of schedules yet the Pacers rank 2nd in offensive efficiency and 26th in DEFF compared to the Jazz who are 23rd in OEFF and 23 in defensive efficiency. Clearly the Bookmakers have over-adjusted this number so let's grab the value with Indiana over Utah. |
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01-15-24 | Iowa v. Minnesota -1.5 | Top | 86-77 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
#876 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota -1.5 over Iowa, Monday at 6 PM ET - We faded Minnesota on Friday and picked up a win as Indiana rolled at home to an easy win. Now we get a much improved Gopher team at home off a loss basically in a pick-em game vs Iowa. Meanwhile the Hawkeyes are off a huge home win over Nebraska scoring 94 points in the process. Iowa was in an ideal situation in that game catching the Huskers upsetting Purdue at home just a few days earlier. Iowa has been a completely different team away from home the last few seasons. This year they are 0-4 SU in true road game with an average margin of -16 points per game. If we go back to the start of last season they have played 15 true road games and won only 4 of those. The Hawkeyes average 95 PPG at home and only 72 PPG on the road, they shoot over 50% at home and just 43% on the road, and from beyond the arc they make 37% of their shot at home and 32% on the road. Minnesota is drastically improved from last season and they have only 1 home loss vs Missouri, a game the Gophers led by 20 in the 2nd half. Prior to their loss @ Indiana the Gophers had won 7 straight and they’ve been a huge money maker with a 14-2 ATS record this season. Minnesota is tough to guard with 5 players averaging double digit points including one of the top players in the Big 10, Dawson Garcia, averaging 17 PPG and 8 RPG. They rank in the top 30 nationally in eFG% and Minny is facing an Iowa defense that allows 77 PPG overall and 84 PPG on the road. The Hawks have a huge home game on deck vs Purdue so a look ahead is highly possible. We have this game power rated with Minnesota a 4 point home favorite and we’re getting them near pick-em. We like the Gophers in this one. |
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01-14-24 | Kings +5.5 v. Bucks | Top | 142-143 | Win | 100 | 17 h 52 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Sacramento Kings +5.5 or +5 at Milwaukee Bucks, 7 PM ET - We like the scheduling advantage for the Kings as they catch the Bucks off a big game last night against the Golden State Warriors. Milwaukee is also off a huge home win over the Celtics on Thursday night making this their 3rd game in four nights and the 2nd of of a back to back. The Bucks clearly are not unbeatable at home this season as they’ve lost recent home games to the Jazz and Pacers. Since the start of last season the Bucks are 50-14 SU at home with an average +/- of +6.3PPG. The Kings are rested and come into this game off a recent loss in Philadelphia. Prior to that loss the Kings had won 4 straight road games. Going back to the start of the 2022-23 season the Kings have the 4th best road record in the NBA and average +/- on the road of +1.7PPG. Milwaukee’s defense has been their Achilles heel this season as they give up 119.4PPG which is 24th most in the league. Sacramento is the 9th highest scoring team in the league and should put up plenty of points here to cover this short number. |
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01-13-24 | Pelicans v. Mavs OVER 231 | Top | 118-108 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 231 New Orleans Pelicans at Dallas Mavericks, 8:40 PM ET - The Pelicans are in a very tough scheduling situation playing their 2nd of a back-to-back and third game in four nights. Not to mention, last night’s game was in altitude in Denver. Dallas has been at home and is coming off a 128-124 win over the Knicks. They played without Luka Doncic in that game but it clearly didn’t hurt them offensively as they put up 128 points against the 10th adjusted ranked efficiency defense. Dating back to the start of last season the Pelicans have gone Over the total in 70.6% of their games when playing without rest. In those 17 games the Over has cashed by an average of +7.8PPG. The Pels have the 12th most efficient offense in the NBA and play at a league average pace. The Mavericks own the 8th most efficient offense in the NBA, rank 24th in DEFF (meaning they will give up points here) and also play at the 8th fastest pace in the league. In the two head-to-head meetings this season they have produced 241 and 260 total points. The bet here is OVER again. |
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01-13-24 | Drake v. Southern Illinois +2.5 | Top | 76-58 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 18 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: #760 Southern Illinois +2.5 vs Drake, 8 PM ET - Drake off huge home win over Indiana State who is the best team in the MVC this year and should be flat for this road date against So. Illinois. Drake has played three true road games, all versus teams ranked lower than Southern Illinois and lost two of those games, one by 22-points to Belmont. The Bulldogs only true road win was at Valparaiso who is ranked outside top 300 per KenPom. SIU is a top 100 team that ranks in the top 50 in both offensive and defensive eFG%. The Salukis are 79th in offensive efficiency and 120th in DEFF. Southern Illinois is a very good 3-point shooting team at 38.9% (16th in the nation) and also defends the Arc well with 2nd lowest 3PT% against in the country at 26.1%. The Salukis are 9-1 SU at home this year with an average +/- of +16.1PPG and 20-5 SU since the start of last year. Southern is playing with revenge here as they lost to Drake in the conference tournament a year ago. In the regular season meeting on this court a year ago, SIU beat Drake 53-49. We call for another W this time around. |
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01-13-24 | San Diego State v. New Mexico -3.5 | Top | 70-88 | Win | 100 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: #622 New Mexico -3.5 over San Diego State, 2 PM ET - New Mexico is off a road loss @ UNLV by 10-points but should bounce back here at home against the Aztecs. In the game against UNLV the Lobos shot well at 49% for the game and were +8 in rebounds but turned it over 16 times. Those TO’s were very uncharacteristic for this New Mexico team that is 37th in turnover percentage on the season so don’t expect a sloppy performance at home on Saturday. New Mexico is very good at home in the Pit with a 8-0 SU record this year and an average margin of victory of +20.7PPG. All but one of those home wins have come by at least 9 points. Going back even further we find the Lobos are 23-4 SU at home since the start of last year and they beat this same San Diego St (final 4 team) team on road last year and lost by 2 at home. In the loss at home New Mexico blew a 13-point 2nd half lead. The Aztecs are a top 25 team yet are an underdog here. SDSU is on the road for the 2nd straight game after barely beating San Jose St on Tuesday who has a 7-9 record. San Deigo State is not a great shooting team overall at 45.1% which ranks 166th in the nation. They struggle from Deep with a 32.6 shooting percentage which is 232nd. New Mexico hits 46.7% of their FG attempts (88th) and gets plenty of attempts with the 17th fastest paced offense in college hoops. |
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01-12-24 | Blazers v. Wolves -14 | Top | 93-116 | Win | 100 | 16 h 22 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Minnesota Timberwolves -14 over the Portland Trailblazers, 8:10 PM ET - We don’t make a habit of laying double digits in the NBA but tonight we will make an exception. The Blazers are bad…really bad! In their last two games they’ve lost to the Knicks 84-112 and to OKC last night 77-139. This team is last in the NBA in offensive efficiency over their last 5 games and score just .980 points per possession in that span of games. Defensively they are better, but not by much as they allow 1.189PPP which ranks 20th in their last 5. They have the worst average point differential in the league at minus -21.4PPG in that same stretch of games. Portland is playing their 7th straight road game, 2nd of back-to-back nights, 3rd in four nights and 7th game in 12 days. The Blazers average +/- on the road this season is a negative -9.8PPG. Minnesota meanwhile is coming off a tough loss to the Celtics and also lost their most recent home game to the Pelicans. The Wolves have the 4th best home differential in the NBA at +9.7PPG and rely on a defense that is best in the NBA in terms of efficiency ratings. Given the circumstances we expect the T’Wolves to get a dominating home win here. |
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01-12-24 | Minnesota v. Indiana -4 | Top | 62-74 | Win | 100 | 15 h 56 m | Show |
#868 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Indiana -4 over Minnesota, Friday at 6:30 PM ET - Big home game for the Hoosiers coming off a road loss @ Rutgers earlier this week. This situation is similar to last Saturday when we were on Indiana at home vs Ohio State and picked up a win. IU is a near perfect 8-1 at home this season with their lone loss by 4 points vs Kansas, a game the Hoosiers led most of the way. They take on a Minnesota team that has an impressive 12-3 overall record but they’ve played one of the easiest schedules in the country (347th SOS out of 363 teams). The Gophers have played a grand total of ONE road game since December 3rd compared to 6 home games. That 1 road game they came from behind in the 2nd half to squeak by Michigan 73-71 in a game they shot nearly 50% from the field and over 40% from beyond the arc. That was also a win vs a Michigan team that is falling apart at the seams losers of 9 of their last 12 games and Minnesota was a 6.5 point dog in that game. Now IU laying only 3 in a crucial home tilt. The Hoosiers have won 7 straight at home vs Minnesota and the last time the Gophers were able to pull off a win at Assembly Hall was the 2011/12 season. We like Indiana to win and cover at home. |
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01-11-24 | Celtics +6 v. Bucks | Top | 102-135 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 58 m | Show |
ASA play on Boston Celtics +6 at Milwaukee Bucks, 7:30 PM ET - Something is clearly going on within the Bucks organization/locker room that we can’t figure out. Even though this team is 25-12 SU, this loaded roster should be better than it is. The Bucks are currently 21st in defensive efficiency after ranking 4th a season ago. The Celtics were 3rd in DEFF a year ago and rank 2nd this season allowing just 1.113PPP. That’s what separates these two teams as the C’s play defense and the Bucks don’t. Both teams average over 1.210 points per possession and rank 2nd and 3rd in offensive efficiency. The Celtics are coming off a game last night but that hasn’t mattered as they are 9-4 ATS dating back to the start of last season when playing without rest. They have a very deep roster and have beaten the Bucks 5 of the last six times they’ve played. Milwaukee was 24-18-2 ATS at home a year ago with an average +/- of +5.9PPG. The Celtics owned the best road point differential in the league last season at +2.9PPG. Boston has an average margin of victory on the road this season of +6.4PPG. Milwaukee at home is winning by an average +5.8PPG at home with a 7-11-1 ATS record on their home court. Grab the points with the Celtics unless they decide to sit starters. |
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01-11-24 | Old Dominion v. Georgia State -5.5 | Top | 70-77 | Win | 100 | 16 h 32 m | Show |
#750 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Georgia State -5.5 over Old Dominion, Thursday at 7 PM ET - We went against ODU last Saturday and came up with an easy win as Arkansas State won by 15. We’ll fade the Monarchs again on Thursday as they are playing their 3rd consecutive road game in a week span. ODU is 0-6 on the road this season losing by an average of 10 PPG and their defense is allowing 83 PPG away from home. They allowed 86 points last Thursday at Troy in a 13 point loss and then allowed 90 over the weekend vs Arkie State. The Monarchs rank 322nd in eFG% defense and 345th in 3 point FG% defense. That won’t cut it here vs a Georgia State team that is 4-1 at home and has scored at least 88 points in 4 of those 5 home games. The Panthers should have a nice advantage at the FT line as well with ODU allowing 21% of their opponents points to come from the charity stripe and GSU hitting 76% of their freebies on the season. The Monarchs continue to be overvalued covering only 3 of their 14 games this season and we project another spread loss here. Georgia State by double digits. |
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01-10-24 | Nuggets -6.5 v. Jazz | Top | 111-124 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 30 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Denver Nuggets -6.5 at Utah Jazz, 10 PM ET - Utah is coming off a tough East coast road trip and two huge upset wins of the 76ers and Bucks. The Jazz benefited from facing a 76ers team without Joel Embiid and a Bucks team without Lillard. Those two victories will have the Nuggets on high alert and focused for this road date in Utah. Denver continues to play outstanding with an 8-2 SU record their last 10 games with 6 of those W’s coming by 6+ points. The Nuggets have been favored by -7.5 or more points in four straight meetings with the Jazz and have covered 3 of 4. A key advantage in this game for Denver will be in the turnover department. Denver turns the ball over the 2nd fewest times per game at 12.2 on the season while the Jazz turn it over more than any team in the league at 16.4 per game. The Nuggets are also one of the best shooting teams in the NBA at 49.5% and the Jazz are 19th in opponents FG% against allowing 47.8%. Utah will have a tough time scoring here with the 25th worst shooting statistics in the league (46.2%) going up against a Denver D that holds opponents to 46.3% (10th). The Nuggets have won 6 straight road games, and we like them to get a win by a double-digit margin here. |
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01-10-24 | Murray State v. Missouri State -4 | Top | 77-53 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
#718 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Missouri State -4 over Murray State, Wednesday at 8 PM ET - Missouri State is in a must win spot coming off 2 straight losses and with 2 road game on deck after this one. The Bears lost by 2 points here at home last week vs Northern Iowa (first home loss of the season) missing a 3 pointer at the buzzer that would have given them the win. After that loss they were flat as a pancake @ Bradley putting up their worst performance of the year losing by 26 as a 5 point underdog. Missouri State head coach Ford called it an “unacceptable” effort so you can bet the Bears will be all in effort wise in this one. Murray State steps in off 3 straight wins and will be playing their 2nd of back to back road games after upsetting Evansville on the road over the weekend. The Aces played without their leading scorer in that game and the prior to Murray State wins were both at home. Prior to that road win the Racers were 0-6 SU in road/neutral games this season. They had also lost 9 of their previous 10 games prior to their current 3 game winning streak. Because of that mini streak we’re getting value with Missouri State laying a small number at home. The Bears have a HUGE edge defensively in this game. They rank 14th nationally in eFG% defense and 12th in 3 point defense allowing opponents to hit only 27% of their shots from deep. Murray State, on the other hand, ranks outside the top 300 in eFG% defense, 2 point FG% defense, and 3 point FG% defense. These 2 split their games last year with the home team winning each. Murray State squeaked by at home by 3 points but when they traveled to Springfield the Bears rolled by 15 points. Expect a huge effort from Missouri State and an easy win. |
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01-09-24 | Texas v. Cincinnati -5 | Top | 74-73 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 57 m | Show |
#606 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cincinnati -5 over Texas, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Unranked home team (Cincinnati) favored over a ranked road game (Texas #25) is a situation where we often look at the home team. First of all, the Longhorns should not be ranked period. They are 11-3 on the season, they’ve played the 310th most difficult SOS and the Horns have beaten ONE team ranked inside the top 130 this season (beat LSU who is ranked 83rd per KenPom). On top of that, Texas has played one true road game this season and lost by 21 points @ Marquette in that one. The Bearcats have played the tougher schedule and have the better record at 12-2. Their only losses are vs Dayton and Xavier both ranked in the top 40. Cincy has some nice momentum after a win @ BYU on Saturday (top 10 team per KenPom) and they have won 25 of their last 28 games at Fifth Third Arena including 9-0 this year with all wins by double digits. The Horns have been overvalued all season long (4-10 ATS) and they are facing a Cincinnati defense that ranks in the top 40 in both defensive efficiency and eFG% allowed. The Bearcats should also have a nice edge on the glass ranking 2nd in the nation in defensive rebounding and 9th in offensive rebounding. Lay it with Cincinnati. |
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01-08-24 | Thunder -11 v. Wizards | Top | 136-128 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 30 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Oklahoma City Thunder -11 or 11.5 at Washington Wizards, 7 PM ET - Rarely will you find us on a double-digit road favorite but there are times you have to make exceptions to the rules which is the case tonight. Oklahoma City Thunder is an elite team in the NBA at 23-11 SU and a serious contender in the Western Conference. Washington is a dumpster fire at 6-29 SU and expect a roster shakeup before the trade deadline. OKC has lost two straight on the road and will bounce back here after a couple days of rest. The Thunder have the 2nd best average Margin of Victory on the road this season at +7.2PPG. The have the #1 defensive efficiency rating on the road allowing 1.095 points per possession and rank 9th in OEFF. Washington has the WORST average road differential in the NBA at minus -12PPG. They rate 24th in offensive efficiency and 30th or last in DEFF. The Thunder are the 2nd best overall shooting team in the NBA and the Wiz are 29th in overall FG% defense. OKC is 1st in 3PT% offense and the Wizards are 23rd in defending the 3-point line. With Oklahoma City off a pair of losses we expect them to be focused here with a big road effort. |
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01-06-24 | Ohio State v. Indiana +1.5 | Top | 65-71 | Win | 100 | 18 h 54 m | Show |
#768 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Indiana +1.5 over Ohio State, Saturday at 8 PM ET - Like this spot for the Hoosiers coming off a road loss on Wednesday night @ Nebraska. Not a bad loss by any means vs a Husker team that is 12-2 on the season and playing at a high level. We now get Indiana at home as an underdog vs an OSU team that has played a fairly weak slate thus far. The Buckeyes have played 1 true road game this year in their 14 games and they lost that game @ Penn State who KenPom has ranked as the only Big 10 team ranked outside the top 100. The Buckeyes have had back to back down to the wire wins vs West Virginia (the lowest rated team in the Big 12) with OSU winning in OT and then on Wednesday they struggled to get by Rutgers (won by 4) the 2nd lowest rated team in the Big 10. The Hoosiers have only 1 loss at home this year and that was by 4 points vs a Kansas team ranked #2 in the country. In that game IU led by as many as 13 points in the 2nd half and trailed for less than 4:00 minutes the entire game. Indiana is a very good shooting game ranking 31st nationally in FG% and they have been even better at home putting up 78 PPG on over 50% shooting. OSU has a solid 12-2 record but we mentioned their SOS which is more than 100 spots lower than Indiana and the Bucks have won only 1 of their last 11 Big 10 road games dating back to the start of last season. The Hoosier are a home dog to a team they beat by 16 here at Assembly Hall last season as a 5 point favorite. IU should be favored in this game but we’re getting a solid value play with the Hoosiers coming off a loss vs an OSU team that isn’t as good as their record might indicate. Indiana is the play. |
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01-05-24 | Magic +9.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 122-120 | Win | 100 | 7 h 2 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Orlando Magic +9.5 at Denver Nuggets, 9 PM ET - This is a great spot to fade the Nuggets and back the Magic. Denver is off a huge last second win last night in Golden State and will have a tough time getting back up for the Magic tonight. The Nuggets came back from 18-points down in the final 7-minutes to win and expended a ton of energy in that comeback win. Orlando is rested and coming off a most recent loss in Sacramento by 3-points in OT. The Magic have lost 3 straight road games at the Kings, Warriors and Suns. They were plus +6-points against the Kings and Suns and catch an inflated number here. Not only are the Nuggets playing the second night of a back to back but they are also playing their 5th game in nine days. Denver has a winning record of 11-9 ATS when playing without rest but their average margin of victory is only +1.2PPG. In their last 8 road games the Magic have just 2 losses by more than 9-points. Easy call here with the Underdog. |
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01-04-24 | Nuggets v. Warriors +3 | Top | 130-127 | Push | 0 | 26 h 43 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors +3 vs Denver Nuggets, 10 PM ET - This is a quick rematch between these two teams as they recently met in Denver on Christmas Day. There was some controversy after the game as Warriors coach Steve Kerr had issues with Nuggets Center Jokic attempting 18 free throws by himself. That game went down to the wire with the Nuggets holding on for a home win by 6-points as a -7.5-point favorite. With that said this line should be a pick’em based off the number of the previous meeting. This has been a tightly contested series with 7 of the last eight meetings all decided by 6-points or less. The Warriors are coming off a win at home over the Magic and the encouraging news for the Warriors is that Klay Thompson is starting to find his stroke again. Thompson was 6 of 11 against the Magic and is a huge factor in the Warriors offense. In the game against the Nuggets he was 3 of 12 from the field. The Warriors are the best offensive rebounding team in the NBA and the Nuggets allow the 17th most. Golden State has a positive home point differential and is 9-6 SU on their home court with an impressive win over the Celtics recently. Denver has won 5 straight on the road but those W’s didn’t come against great competition (Hornets, Nets, Raptors, Bulls, Hawks). Grab the points with GST. |
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01-04-24 | Minnesota v. Michigan -6 | Top | 73-71 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 47 m | Show |
#802 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Michigan -6 over Minnesota, Thursday at 9 PM ET - We’re getting Michigan at the bottom of the market so to speak, laying only 6 points. Last year the Wolverines were favored by 12.5 at home vs Minnesota so some solid value here. The reason Michigan is laying a low number here is they’ve lost 2 straight and 5 of their last 7. However, all of those 5 losses were vs top 100 teams (Oregon, Indiana, Texas Tech, Florida, and McNeese State) and 3 of those 5 were by 3 points or fewer or in OT. Their most recent loss was at home vs a very good McNeese State team and don’t let the name fool you. They are very good and actually rated higher than tonight’s opponent, Minnesota, per KenPom. To put this point spread perspective, the Wolverines were favored by 10.5 last Friday vs McNeese State and now they are favored by just 6 (opening number) vs a Minnesota team who is ranked lower than McNeese as we discussed. This is a must win at home for Michigan as they have 2 road games following this game. Tough competition has been the theme for Michigan this year as they’ve played a very tough schedule (22nd SOS) which has a lot to do with their 6-7 record. They have solid top 100 wins over St John’s, Iowa, and Stanford this season. Minnesota has a better record, but only 1 top 100 win at home vs Nebraska. The Gophs have played a brutally easy schedule (358th SOS) and they’ve been at home for a full month. Only 2 of their 13 games this season have been road games (San Francisco & Ohio State) and the Gophers lost both of those games by double digits. Both teams have shot the ball very well (both top 25 in eFG%) but Michigan has only faced one defense ranked outside the top 250 in efficiency and 6 defenses ranked in the top 100. Compare that to the Gophers who’ve already faced 8 defenses ranked outside the top 250 on the season which is 62% of their games on the year. We like the home team in must win mode. |
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01-03-24 | Thunder v. Hawks +2 | Top | 138-141 | Win | 100 | 12 h 0 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Atlanta Hawks +2 vs Oklahoma City Thunder, 7:40 PM ET - The Thunder are in a tough scheduling situation here after coming off a huge game against the Boston Celtics last night. Not only that, but they are also playing their 3rd game in four nights and 6th game in nine days. Fatigue is certainly going to be a factor in Atlanta where the Hawks are home and rested. Atlanta is 1-4 SU their last five games but did win their most recent game in Washington. The Hawks have Jalen Johnson back in the starting lineup and now become a deeper team. We are expecting the Hawks to get plenty of extra field goal attempts with the 2nd best offensive rebounding team going up against an OKC team that 29th in defensive rebounding. The Thunder are 28th in rebounding overall while the Hawks are 19th. The Thunder put everything into their game last night against the league leading Celtics and will have little left in the tank to face the rested Hawks. |
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01-03-24 | Loyola-Chicago v. St. Louis -2 | Top | 80-73 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
#670 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* St Louis -2 over Loyola Chicago, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - The Billikens have one of the better home court advantages on the Atlantic 10. They are 6-1 this year in Chaifetz Arena with their only loss coming by 5 points vs a Utah State team that has a record of 13-1 on the season. Going back further, St Louis has won 30 of their last 35 home games. They played only 2 home games in December and beat Hofstra and Louisiana Tech, both rated higher than this Loyola team. With this line set at pick-em (opening number) we just need a win here from the Billikens. St Louis is coming off a loss @ NC State on December 20th and they’ve had 2 weeks off to get rested and ready. Loyola has the better record in this game, 8-5 compared to 7-6 for STL, however they’ve played one of the easiest schedules in the country. The Ramblers strength of schedule is outside the top 300 and 5 of their 8 wins have come vs teams rated outside the top 300. They’ve played only 2 true road games this season and lost both by double digits @ Tulsa and @ South Florida, 2 teams rated very similar to this St Louis team. While Loyola has played only 3 games all season vs teams ranked inside the top 100, St Louis has played 5 of their last 6 games vs teams ranked inside the top 100. One key advantage for the host in this game is the Billikens 3 point shooting (53rd nationally in 3 point FG%) vs a Loyola defense ranked 277th defending the arc. At home STL’s shooting gets even better where they’ve hit 42% of their triples. They also get to the line a lot and make them when they get there (76% from the FT line). St Louis was favored by -11 at home vs Loyola last year (won by 19) and now we’re getting just slightly above a pick-em. Value on St Louis at home in this one. |
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01-02-24 | New Mexico v. Colorado State -3 | Top | 68-76 | Win | 100 | 15 h 11 m | Show |
#652 ASA TOP PLAY ON Colorado State -3 or -3.5 over New Mexico, Tuesday at 10:30 PM ET - CSU comes into this game with a 12-1 SU record with their only loss coming by 3 points vs St Mary’s. In that loss the Rams played without 2 key starters, Lake & Strong, and still nearly beat a solid STM team. Lake has since returned and while Strong is still out, the Rams have adapted having now played 5 games with him on the shelf. They have only 1 loss despite playing a very tough schedule (53rd SOS) and they have 5 wins vs top 100 teams including wins over Colorado and Creighton (top 25 teams). CSU is a fantastic offensive team averaging 85 PPG while ranking 3rd nationally in eFG%, 11th in offensive efficiency and they make 77% of the FT’s. They’ve been held under 80 points only twice this season! New Mexico is also 12-1 on the year but overvalued in our opinion. The Lobos have played a much easier schedule (197th SOS) and this will be just their 3rd road game of the season. Their 2 roadies weren’t overly impressive as they lost big @ St Mary’s and barely beat a NM State, who has a current 6-9 record, on the road by 1 point. New Mexico relies heavily on creating turnovers which won’t work in this one vs a veteran CSU team that turns the ball over just 13.9% of the time (16th nationally). Because of that aggressiveness on defense, the Lobos also foul a lot which will be a problem in this game vs a very good FT shooting team. These 2 MWC teams split last year with each home team winning. The Lobos have lost 5 straight @ Colorado State and we’ll call for 6 in a row tonight. The Rams win and cover at home. |
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01-02-24 | Celtics v. Thunder +3.5 | Top | 123-127 | Win | 100 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Oklahoma City Thunder +3.5 vs Boston Celtics, 8:10 PM ET - Both teams come into this game red hot with the Celtics on an 11-1 SU run their last twelve games while OKC is 7-1 SU their last eight games. Boston has the 2nd best average margin of victory at +10.2PPG but the Thunder are 3rd at +7.7PPG and OKC has faced a slightly tougher schedule. On a neutral court we would have Boston favored by -3.1 points, so the value is clearly on the Thunder at home where they are 13-5 SU this season +8.4PPG. Looking at recent Thunder games and we see they were recently favored by 2-points at home over Minnesota and minus -6.5-points home vs. the Clippers. The Celtics were recently favored by 4 and 5-points at the Lakers and Clippers and should not be laying points here. Boston lives and dies with the 3-ball as they rank 1st in the NBA in attempts and makes but rank 11th in 3PT%. OKC defends the 3-point line well, ranking 10th in 3PT% defense. The Thunder are the leagues best 3-point shooting team in the NBA and the Celtics are 14th in defending the Arc. That 3-point advantage will be key tonight in what shapes up to be a 1-possession game either way. Grab the points. |
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12-30-23 | Knicks v. Pacers -4.5 | Top | 126-140 | Win | 100 | 6 h 1 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* #572 Indiana Pacers -4.5 vs NY Knicks, 7:10 PM ET - We like the Pacers here as the Knicks are in a tough scheduling situation with this being the second night of a back-to-back. Not only are they playing without rest, but this will also be their 3rd game in four days, 4th game in six days. Now they must face the second fastest paced team in the NBA who is rested and at home. Indiana played extremely well going into the in-season tournament but came back to Earth immediately afterwards. They have seemed to have found their groove again with a pair of wins on the road at Houston and Chicago. New York is 9-9 SU on the road this season with a negative overall differential. Indiana is 8-7 SU at home with an average +/- of plus 6.7PPG. The key advantage the Pacers have is their transition offense which averages the most fastbreak points in the league compared to a Knicks team that allows the 20th most. Lay it with Indiana. |
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12-30-23 | Creighton v. Marquette OVER 150 | Top | 67-72 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 42 m | Show |
#627/628 ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 150 Points – Creighton vs Marquette, Saturday at 2 PM ET - Two of the top offensive teams in the country facing off here and we expect a shootout on the scoreboard. Both rank in the top 30 nationally in offensive efficiency with Creighton averaging 1.16 adjusted PPP and Marquette 1.15. Creighton ranks 4th in the nation in eFG% and Marquette is in the top 45. The Blue Jays average 83 PPG but that moves up to 84 PPG on the road so no drop off whatsoever. The Golden Eagles step in averaging 78.5 PPG but at home they are much more comfortable offensively averaging 87 PPG on over 50% shooting. Creighton has scored at least 79 points in 9 of their 12 games this season and Marquette has scored at least 75 points in 8 of their 13 games. The Eagles like to play fast ranking in the top 100 in pace. Creighton is middle of the pack in pace, however, they’ve played mainly slow paced teams this year with the exception of 2. In their 2 games vs teams ranked inside the top 100 in pace (Bama & Iowa), they totaled 176 and 167 points. We expect plenty of possessions in this game with the offenses in control. Over is the call. |
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12-29-23 | Hornets v. Suns UNDER 231.5 | Top | 119-133 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 231.5 Charlotte Hornets at Phoenix Suns, 9:10 PM ET - Charlotte is coming off a game last night and gave up 133 to the Lakers. They have given up some big numbers recently against the Lakers, Pacers and 76ers but we don’t expect that tonight in Phoenix. The three teams previously mentioned are faster paced teams ranking 13th or better but the Suns are the 5th slowest team in the NBA. Phoenix is also an average team in terms of offensive efficiency at 1.166-points per possession. Charlotte doesn’t play fast either (without Ball in the lineup) ranking 17th in pace this season overall and they’ve been slower yet in their last five games at 97.7 possessions per game. The Hornets are struggling offensively having scored 114 or less points in 9 straight games and 104 or less in 5 of nine. The Suns had an outlier offensive game last time out when they put up 129 against the Rockets. Prior to that they had scored 114 or less in 7 of their last nine games. We aren’t expecting many points in this game and will BET UNDER. |
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12-29-23 | East Tennessee State v. East Carolina -8 | Top | 86-70 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
#850 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* East Carolina -8 over East Tennessee State, Friday at 7 PM ET - ETSU is one of the worst offensive teams in the country. They are a bad shooting team making just 39% of their shots on the year (352nd) and they hit only 30% of their triples so far this season (308th). They have one player in their rotation that has hit better than 42% of their shots this season and only 2 players that have made more than 32% of their 3’s. On the road it’s worse. They have a 1-5 SU record away from home and they are averaging only 63 PPG on the road while making 38% of their FG attempts. They are facing an ECU team that has 7 wins at home this season while averaging 77 PPG in their own arena. The Pirates do have 3 losses at home this season but 2 of those came with 2nd leading scorer and top rebounder Johnson out with an injury. Their only loss at home while at full strength was vs South Carolina and that was a tight loss 68-62, a game ECU led with less than 4:00 minutes remaining. Their only other loss since November was vs Florida and that was another close one losing 70-65. The Pirates should have a nice advantage at the charity stripe as they get to the line often (95th in percentage of points from the FT line) and ETSU fouls a lot averaging 21 fouls per game (29th most in the nation). ECU has 80% of their minutes back from last season and they’ve added 2 key transfers from Kansas & LSU. ETSU has won only 9 of their last 35 road games and we like the Pirates to roll at home in this one. |
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12-28-23 | Heat v. Warriors -3.5 | Top | 114-102 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -3.5 vs. Miami Heat, 10:10 PM ET - The Warriors are playing better of late with wins in 5 of their last six games. The lone loss in that stretch was their most recent game on Christmas Day in Denver. Golden State has won 8 straight at home including an impressive win over the Boston Celtics. The Warriors last five games numbers are significantly better than their overall numbers on the season. In their last five games they have an offensive efficiency rating of 1.237-points per possession and a DEFF of 1.167PPP. Miami has some solid road numbers including a 9-6 SU record and a +2.8PPG differential. The Heat though have played the 27th easiest schedule to date compared to the Warriors who have faced the 3rd toughest. Going back to the start of last season, the Warriors are 36-25 ATS at home with an average margin of victory of +6.1PPG. Miami is off a big upset win in Philly on Christmas Day and now travels across the country to face a motivated Warriors team as Miami won the most recent meeting last season so this is a revenge spot for the Warriors. Lay the short number. |
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12-28-23 | UCLA v. Oregon State UNDER 128.5 | Top | 69-62 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
#729/730 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 128.5 Points – UCLA vs Oregon State, Thursday at 10 PM ET - The defenses for each of these teams will be the best 2 units on the floor. Both rank in the to 50 in FG% allowed and they both allow only 30% from beyond the arc. UCLA is allowing only 62 PPG (14th best nationally) despite already facing 4 teams ranked in the top 35 in the country in offensive efficiency. Oregon State is allowing 69 PPG but 3 of their games have gone to OT and 2 went to double OT so those numbers are higher than they should be. The Beavers have held 4 of their last 5 opponents to 65 points or less. These 2 offenses have struggled all season and we don’t see that changing here. They shoot just 42% (UCLA) and 43% (OSU) on the season and neither team is hitting 30% of their 3 pointers. Neither offense scores many points from deep both ranking outside the top 320 in percentage of points from outside the arc. We don’t look for many offensive possessions here as we have 2 slow paced teams facing off. That is especially the case on the defensive end where both teams make their opponents work very hard to get good shots. UCLA allows a shot attempts every 18.3 seconds and Oregon State allows a shot attempt every 18.5 seconds (both in the top 30 in the country). Last year these 2 totaled 109 points in their only meeting and we anticipate another grinder on Thursday night. |
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12-28-23 | UC-Santa Barbara -2 v. UC-Davis | Top | 62-76 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 28 m | Show |
#711 ASA PLAY ON UC Santa Barbara -2 over UC Davis, Friday at 9 PM ET - Both teams have had a full week plus off entering this game so both should be healthy and rested. UCSB is 7-3 on the season but that is a deceiving record as 2 of their 3 losses came with PG Mitchell, a potential first round draft choice, out with an injury. With Mitchell in the line up the Gauchos are 7-1 with their lone loss coming @ New Mexico who currently has an 11-1 record and the Lobos are a top 35 team per KenPom. Mitchell is averaging 20 PPG while shooting 52% from the field, 47% from beyond the arc, and 88% from the FT line. He and the Gauchos should have a field day offensively vs a UC Davis team that ranks outside the top 300 in 2 point FG% allowed and 3 point FG% allowed. UCSB is hitting 51% of their shots this season (7th nationally), 38.5% of their 3’s (30th nationally) and averaging 83 PPG. While Santa Barbara is averaging 83 PPG, UC Davis has scored more than 83 points just once this season vs Jessup College. Davis is 5-6 on the year with 2 wins vs non Division 1 opponents (Jessup & California Merced) and their 3 other wins all came vs teams ranked outside the top 200. They’ve faced 4 teams ranked inside the top 200 (UCSB is 140th) and the Aggies lost all of those games by double digits. UCSB has dominated this Big West series winning 7 straight meetings and 4 of those games were @ UC Davis. Lay the small number here. |
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12-27-23 | Knicks v. Thunder -2.5 | Top | 120-129 | Win | 100 | 9 h 47 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Oklahoma City Thunder -2.5 vs NY Knicks, 8 PM ET - We are not concerned about the Thunder playing last night as they were able to give extended minutes to several bench players. OKC had a remarkable shooting night at 60% against the best defensive team in the NBA and now face a Knicks team that is average in that regard. New York allows opponents to make 47.5% of their FG attempts which ranks 18th in the league. One key advantage the Thunder have here is their 3-point shooting as they have the 2nd best 3PT percentage in the NBA at 38.6%. The Knicks allow foes to hit 37.3% which is 19th worst in the league. The Knicks are average in most key offensive categories and the Thunder hold the 2nd best FG% defense and are 12th in defending the 3-point line. This line is a bargain considering the Thunder were just favored by 2-points against the T-Wolves, -3.5 vs. the Lakers and -6.5 vs. the Clippers who all grade out higher than the Knicks. OKC has a positive differential of +7PPG at home this season and should get a win by that margin here. |
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12-26-23 | Grizzlies v. Pelicans -4.5 | Top | 116-115 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 15 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans -4.5 vs. Memphis Grizzlies, 8 PM ET - We really liked this game when it opened at -3.5 but there is still value at the current number with New Orleans. These same two teams just met on this court last week with Memphis winning by 2-points on a Ja Morant game winner. The Pelicans were favored by -8.5-points in that game, hence the value here. It’s a great situation to back New Orleans as they are off a home loss to the Rockets while Memphis has won 3 straight since the return of Morant. The Grizzlies upset this Pelicans team, then won at home against a Pacers team that is trending down, then beat a Hawks team that is 3-8 their last eleven. New Orleans is a solid home team with a 33-23 ATS record and a plus/minus of +4.6PPG dating back to the start of last season. Memphis is 22-36 ATS on the road since the start of last year with a +/- of -3.8PPG. With the quick turnaround between these two teams we like the situation and scheduling to back the Pelicans at home. |
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12-25-23 | 76ers -120 v. Heat | Top | 113-119 | Loss | -120 | 30 h 20 m | Show |
ASA Top Play on 10* Philadelphia 76ers -1.5 or Pick -120 at Miami Heat – 8:10 PM ET - The 76ers have been a money-making machine this season with a 20-8 ATS record, and we’ll back them on the road in Miami. The Heat are getting healthy, but we’re still not sold on this roster. Miami has won 5 of their last seven games but the wins have come against Charlotte (2x), Chicago, Orlando and Atlanta which is hardly impressive. Philly is on an 8-1 SU run and owns the best average point differential in the NBA at +11.3PPG. The Sixers are the best offensive efficiency team in the league and rank 5th defensively. Miami is 14th in DEFF and 15th in OEFF and have a negative point differential at home of -0.8PPG. The visitor has covered 4 straight in this rivalry and we expect that trend to continue here. |
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12-25-23 | Warriors v. Nuggets -6.5 | Top | 114-120 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 60 m | Show |
ASA Top Play on 10* Denver Nuggets -6.5 vs Golden State Warriors – 2:30 PM ET - This Warriors team is not your Warriors team from the past. The aging roster is catching up to them and we don’t see them as a relevant contender this season in the West. Denver on the other hand has the best starting five in the NBA and clearly are one of the favorites to win it all this season. Denver doesn’t lose very often at home with a 71.1% winning percentage at home since the start of the 2020 season. Since the start of last season the Nuggets are 55-10 SU with an average +/- of +10PPG. Golden State has really struggled on the road the past two season with a 18-43 SU record and a loss margin of minus -3.6PPG. Denver has won 4 straight in the series, including a 3-point win earlier this season at home. Denver owns the 8th best 3-point percentage defense in the NBA and can limit Curry and Crew from Deep. Lay the points. |
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12-23-23 | Missouri State v. St. Mary's -12.5 | Top | 69-64 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 6 m | Show |
#628 ASA TOP PLAY ON St Mary’s -12.5 over Missouri State, Saturday at 8 PM ET - St Mary’s has been a completely different team at home compared to on the road. We were on the Gaels last Saturday when they beat UNLV by 2 points on a neutral court in Phoenix but failed to cover the 6 point spread. Since that game they have played 2 home games winning by a combined score of 163-90 vs two solid opponents, Middle Tennessee State and Northern Kentucky. STM did have a rare home loss back in November vs Weber State in a game they blew a 16 point second half lead. They are 6-0 in their other 6 home games winning all by at least 13 points. The Gaels have won 5 straight games including a very impressive win @ Colorado State who is currently ranked 30th in the nation per KenPom. In their one home game vs a similar rated opponent, STM beat a very good Davidson team by 34 points as an 11 point favorite (Davidson is ranked 115th and tonight’s opponent Missouri State is ranked 116th). This is a fantastic defensive team ranking 12th nationally in efficiency allowing only 0.92 PPP and they are allowing only 53 PPG at home. The Gaels have struggled away from home offensively but when playing in University Credit Union Pavilion, where they’ve won 40 of their last 43 games, they are averaging nearly 80 PPG this season. Missouri State topped Lindenwood by 22 points at home on Tuesday (we were on Mizzou St) and now make the long trip to the west coast. The Bears have played 4 road games this season and lost all 4 averaging only 64 PPG (in regulation) in those losses. Now facing the best defense they’ve seen this year, we don’t expect much offensively from MSU. The Bears have faced only one top 100 team this season and lost that game by 17 points vs Drake. St Mary’s will be the best team Missouri State has faced this season and we look for an easy win for the home team. |
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12-23-23 | Grizzlies -117 v. Hawks | Top | 125-119 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
ASA top play on Memphis Grizzlies Pick'em -115 vs Atlanta Hawks, 7:40 PM ET - The Grizzlies are significantly better with Ja Morant on the floor as evidenced by their two wins with him back in the lineup. Today they face a Hawks team off a game last night in Miami. Atlanta is 5-13 SU their last 18 when playing without rest and they’ve lost those games by an average of minus -2.7PPG. Going back to the start of last season the Grizzlies have an average point differential of +5.1PPG when holding a rest advantage over their opponents and a 16-12 record. Atlanta took a hit when they lost up-and-coming Jalen Johnson and have just 3 wins in their last ten games. This is the Hawks 3rd game in four nights and 4th in six days so fatigue will be a factor. Memphis has two quality wins over the Pelicans and Pacers in their last two games and there is a reason they are favored in this game. |
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12-22-23 | Nuggets v. Nets +4.5 | Top | 122-117 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
ASA NBA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets +4.5 vs. Denver Nuggets, 7:40 PM ET - We are grabbing the value with the Nets here at home plus the points. These two teams recently met in Denver where the Nuggets were favored by -9-points. That means this line should be Denver minus 1 or 2 points. The Nets were in the middle of a tough road stretch and were playing the second night of a back-to-back in altitude. They shot horribly at 41% overall and made just 8 of 30 3-point attempts. The Nuggets were just favored by this same spread in Toronto who we grade slightly worse than Brooklyn. The Nuggets road numbers aren’t great at 7-8 SU with an average point differential of minus -0.4PPG. Brooklyn is 8-5 SU at home with the 12th best average margin of victory at +6.8PPG. We like the Nets to get a bit of revenge here from that recent loss in Denver. Grab the points. |
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12-21-23 | Clippers v. Thunder -4.5 | Top | 115-134 | Win | 100 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Oklahoma City Thunder -4.5 vs LA Clippers, 8 PM ET - The Clippers trade for Harden seems to be working out as they’ve won 9 games in a row, including a road win last night in Dallas. L.A. is now playing their 3rd game in four nights and the second of a back-to-back in OKC. The Thunder have been off since the 18th and they’ve won 6 of their last eight games. The Thunder are coming off two straight impressive wins in Denver and at home against Memphis by 19-points. Oklahoma City is winning at home by an average of +7.3PPG which is the 10th best number in the NBA. When playing without rest the Clippers are 7-12 SU since the start of last season with a negative differential of minus -3.1PPG. The Clippers typically beat teams by shooting a high percentage but that will be tough to do tonight against an OKC team that is 2nd in opponents FG% overall and 9th in defending the 3-point line. The Thunder also shoot it just as well as the Clippers from beyond the arc (4th) and overall (4th). The scheduling clearly favors the Thunder at home. |
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12-21-23 | Jacksonville State v. Arkansas-Little Rock -2.5 | Top | 90-60 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 7 m | Show |
#718 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Arkansas Little Rock -2.5 over Jacksonville State, Thursday at 3 PM ET - This is a really good situational spot for UALR. They are playing their 3rd straight home game and haven’t been on the road since December 7th. After a rough 1-5 start, Little Rock has turned the corner winning 5 of their last 7 games and 5 of their last 6 at home. They are catching Jacksonville State in a tough spot. The Gamecocks play @ Wisconsin last Thursday, then traveled to Texas on Monday to face Tarleton State, and now a few days later they are on the road in Arkansas to play an afternoon game. JSU is coming off an upset win @ Tarleton State on Monday winning by 3 as a 4.5 point dog. They trailed for most of the game in that win (down 12 with 9:00 minutes remaining) and took their first lead of the 2nd half with barely over 2:00 minutes remaining. They still were down with under 40 seconds left before pulling out the win. Now traveling again after that come from behind win could be tough for JSU today. UALR has played well at home with a 6-2 SU & ATS mark so far this season. They are averaging 82 PPG at home with a +7 PPG point differential. They are hitting 49% of their shots at home this season and nearly 40% of their triples. They will be facing a fatigued JSU offense that simply isn’t a very good shooting team that ranks 266th in eFG% and makes less than 30% of their 3’s. We’ll lay the small number with the home team on Thursday afternoon. |
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12-20-23 | North Carolina -2.5 v. Oklahoma | Top | 81-69 | Win | 100 | 14 h 57 m | Show |
#687 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* North Carolina -2.5 over Oklahoma, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - This isn’t a true home game for UNC but it’s being played in Charlotte so the crowd will be heavily in favor of the Heels. They are sort of in must win mode coming off back to back losses vs UConn and Kentucky, both on neutral courts. Those aren’t the only 2 high level teams UNC has played this year as their strength of schedule ranks 21st in the country per KenPom. They have solid wins vs Tennessee, Arkansas, and Florida State. The Sooners are undefeated but they’ve played an ultra easy slate ranking 336th in SOS. They have played 7 home games and just 3 neutral site games. This will be the closest thing to a true road game Oklahoma has played this season. Half of their opponents this season currently rank 295th or lower while North Carolina hasn’t played a single team ranked that low and more than half of their games (6) have come vs teams inside the top 100. The Sooners have very good overall defensive numbers, however we need to account for their weak schedule when sifting through that. They have faced only 3 offenses currently ranked inside the top 100 in efficiency and the average offensive efficiency of the 10 teams they’ve faced is 202nd. Now they take on a Tar Heel team that ranks 9th in the country in offensive efficiency and is averaging 85 PPG on the season. Offensively, Oklahoma has put up some big numbers at home this year (vs mainly poor competition) but in their 3 games away from home (all neutral court) they’ve been held below their PPP season average. That was vs 3 defensive teams (Iowa, Arkansas, and USC) who’s defensive efficiency numbers are not as good as this UNC team. We feel this is just a really good spot for Carolina needing a win after a few losses vs a team that has padded their early season record vs a poor SOS. Lay the small number. |
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12-20-23 | Hawks v. Rockets -3 | Top | 134-127 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Houston Rockets -3 vs Atlanta Hawks, 8:10 PM ET - We have admittedly been slow to get on the Rockets bandwagon but will side with them tonight at home against the Hawks. If you haven’t been paying attention, the Rockets are 11-1 SU at home and the only loss came back in the first week of the season to Golden State. They have beaten some of the best teams in the league at home including: the Kings (twice) Lakers, Pelicans, Nuggets (twice) and Thunder. Houston’s average Margin of Victory at home is 4th best in the NBA at +12.8PPG. The Hawks have OK road numbers with an average MOV of +0.5PPG and a 6-6 SU record but most recently they’ve struggled with a 2-6 SU record in their last eight road contests. Their last four road wins have come against teams with losing records with 2 of those coming at the Spurs and at Washington, two of the worst teams in the league. Houston is coming off a 3-game road stint with a win in Memphis and two tightly contested losses in Milwaukee and Cleveland. Atlanta has been a fade team all season long with a 6-20 ATS record while the Rockets are 16-7-1 ATS. We expect that trend to continue tonight and will back Houston. |
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12-20-23 | Nuggets -4 v. Raptors | Top | 113-104 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Denver Nuggets -4 at Toronto Raptors, 7:30 PM ET - Toronto used to have one of the best home court advantages in the NBA but that hasn’t been the case this season. The Raptors are 8-7 SU with an average point differential of +1.4PPG. In their last five games at home, they have a pair of unimpressive wins against poor teams such as Charlotte and Atlanta and losses to good teams Miami and New York. Toronto is just 3-4 SU at home against teams with a current winning record. Denver is not a deep team but their starting five is as good as anyone in the NBA. They recently went through a stretch of games without PG Murray but he’s back now and the Nuggets have won 4 of their last five games. Denver has played the 8th toughest schedule yet still has an average point differential of +4.8PPG which is 7th highest in the league. Toronto has faced a much weaker schedule, and their net point differential is -1.7PPG. These two teams are relatively even in defensive efficiency, but the Nuggets hold a big advantage when it comes to offensive efficiency, averaging 1.185PPP compared to the Raptors 1.133PPP. At this price we will back the World Champs minus the points. |
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12-19-23 | Celtics v. Warriors UNDER 235 | Top | 126-132 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 29 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 235 Boston Celtics at Golden State Warriors, 10 PM ET - The O/U number on this game has ticked up slightly from the opener and we like the added value with an Under wager on this marquee NBA game tonight. Scoring is up as a whole in the NBA with games averaging roughly 230 total points per contest. To get to that lofty total you need several factors including pace of play, a poor defense or great offense. In this match up we have the Warriors who rank 13th in pace of play at 99.7 possessions per game, Boston ranks 23rd. The Celtics are 7th in offensive efficiency but the Warriors rank 15th in OEFF. Defensively the Celtics are 4th in defensive efficiency and allow 109PPG. Golden State is 17th in DEFF and give up 115PPG. When playing away from home the Celtics tend to play slower and score less at 111.2PPG which is significantly lower than the 123.6PPG they score at home. Golden State also plays at a slower tempo at home compared to when they play on the road and also score and allow less at home. In the two meetings last season these teams combined for 230 and 222 (in regulation) when they faced each other, and they have stayed Under the total in 7 of the last ten meetings overall. The bet here is UNDER! |
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12-19-23 | Lindenwood v. Missouri State -17.5 | Top | 57-79 | Win | 100 | 6 h 34 m | Show |
#630 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Missouri State -17.5 over Lindenwood, Tuesday at 8 PM ET - Like this spot for Mizzou State as they enter this game having lost 3 of their last 4 games so should be fully focused on rolling over this bad Lindenwood team. The Bears most recent game was a 1 point loss @ Tulsa, a game they led by 10 with 5:00 minutes remaining. All 4 of MSU’s losses this year have come on the road (7-4 overall record) and their home winning margin is +13.5 PPG. Three of their four home opponents were ranked inside the top 200 while Lindenwood is currently ranked 333rd (out of 362). Lindenwood is also in a tough spot coming off a rare road win @ IUPUI who is ranked 359th or the 4th worst team in the country. The Lions were 0-4 on the road coming into that game vs a terrible IUPUI team and they lost those 4 games by an average margin of -28 PPG. Lindenwood has now won only 3 of their last 21 road games dating back to the start of last year and 13 of those losses have come by double digits. They are bad on both ends of the court ranking 343rd in offensive efficiency and 285th in defensive efficiency. The Lions are a poor offensive team that averages only 60 PPG on the road this season and they rank outside the top 300 in FG%, 2 point FG%, and 3 point FG%. They are facing a Missouri State defense that has been outstanding 14th in the nation in eFG% defense and top 35 in both 2 point FG and 3 point FG percentage defense. On offense the Bears are averaging 85 PPG at home and hitting nearly 49% of their shots. Now facing a Lindenwood defense that allows over 80 PPG on the road. This one should be a blowout. |
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12-18-23 | Wizards v. Kings OVER 247 | Top | 131-143 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 247 Washington Wizards at Sacramento Kings, 8:15 PM ET - The Wizards are in a tough spot here having played last night in Phoenix. Tonight’s game will also be their 3rd game in four days. Washington is a team that really struggles on the defensive end of the court and we know that ‘s where most of your energy should be spent. The Wiz are last in the league in defensive efficiency allowing 1.217PPP and 126.3PPG. They have allowed 130+ in 6 of their last ten games, 140 or more twice. Washington wants to play fast with the 2nd highest possession rate in the NBA. The Kings are going to score in this game and could easily get to that 130 number. Sacramento is 11th in pace and 14th in offensive efficiency. The Kings are averaging the 9th most points per game at 116.3PPG and are coming off a pair of games scoring 128 and 125. It’s a big number, but we like this game to reach 250+ total points. |
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12-18-23 | Jacksonville State v. Tarleton St UNDER 126.5 | Top | 65-62 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 10 m | Show |
#881/882 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 126.5 Points – Jacksonville State vs Tarleton State, Monday at 8 PM ET - Defense is definitely the strength of these 2 teams. They both rank in the top 25 nationally in scoring defense allowing right around 62 PPG. Offensively both of these teams struggle to make shots ranking outside the top 200 in efficiency, eFG%, 2 point FG%, and 3 point FG%. JSU has played only 4 teams this year that have a defensive efficiency rank inside the top 200. They have not topped 60 points in any of those games and they averaged just 56 PPG. Tarleton State hasn’t played a defense with a pulse since November and in their 5 games vs defenses ranked inside the top 200 in efficiency they are averaging 65 PPG. We expect very few possessions this game as both are slow paced (313th and 322nd in possession per game). Both are very deliberate on offense especially with each averaging 19 seconds per possession which ranks them 335th in the nation. Three point shots will be kept at a minimum in this one as neither relies heavily on the deep ball. JSU averages 16 three point attempts per game and TSU averages 15 ranking them 335th and 344th respectively. When the do take a shot from beyond the arc, they are hitting just 30% (both teams) which is not good. Lastly, neither team gets to the FT line very often so we should be getting very few points with the clock stopped. Defenses and slow pace rule here so we grab the Under. |
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12-17-23 | Rockets +7 v. Bucks | Top | 119-128 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 34 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Houston Rockets +7 at Milwaukee Bucks, 7 PM ET - This is a great spot to fade Milwaukee and back a red hot Rockets team. Houston has won 5 straight games and that includes a pair of wins over OKC and Denver. This Rockets team is tenacious defensively ranking 2nd in defensive efficiency allowing just 1.082 points per possession. In comparison the Bucks rank 23rd. The Bucks have won three straight and 8 of their last ten but take a look at who they’ve played. Milwaukee has not faced a defense of this caliber since November 22nd at Boston and they lost by 3-points. In their last ten games the Bucks have faced 8 teams that rank in the bottom third of the NBA in total defense. Milwaukee has played THE easiest schedule in the NBA, the Rockets have faced the 12th toughest. Grab the points with Houston. |
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12-16-23 | Hawks v. Cavs -2.5 | Top | 119-127 | Win | 100 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Cleveland Cavaliers -2 or -2.5 vs Atlanta Hawks, 7:30 PM ET - The Hawks are in a tough scheduling situation here having played and won in Toronto on Friday night. This will be the second night of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in four nights. Cleveland has lost 4 straight games, but they’ve come against Miami, Orlando and Boston twice. The Cavs suffered a blow in their last game, losing PG Garland for the foreseeable future with a jaw injury. But LeVert is more than capable of filling in for Garland and also expect Donovan Mitchell to step up to the task. The Hawks hold the offensive advantage, but the Cavs are that much better defensively ranking 8th in defensive efficiency compared to the Hawks at 28th. With this low number we are basically just asking the Cavs to win this game outright and they are 38-18 SU at home since the start of last season with an average Margin of Victory of +5.8PPG. Atlanta is 25-33 SU their last 58 road games with a negative differential of minus -1.1PPG. Atlanta playing without rest is 5-12 SU their last 17, minus -2.4PPG. Let’s back the shorthanded Cavs at home in desperation mode. |
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12-16-23 | UNLV v. St. Mary's -5 | Top | 67-69 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 16 m | Show |
#684 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* St Mary’s -5 over UNLV, Saturday at 7 PM ET - This game is being played on a neutral court in Phoenix, Arizona. We’re getting some value with St Mary’s at this point in the season mainly because their record is just 5-5. Let’s keep in mind they’ve played a brutally tough schedule thus far (16th SOS) and 4 of their 5 losses have come vs teams currently sitting in the top 75 per KenPom. The Gaels return 3 starters and 70% of their minutes from a team that was 27-8 last season and beat VCU in round 1 of the NCAA tourney before losing to eventual National Champions UConn. STM has now had a full week off and has some solid momentum after beating an undefeated Colorado State team on the road last Saturday. That was a CSU team that had 5 top 100 wins already this season including W’s vs Washington, Creighton, and Colorado. Impressive win for St Mary’s to go on the road and beat that team. Saturday they are facing a UNLV team that is coming off a gigantic home win on Wednesday vs Creighton and now traveling just a few days after that win. The Rebels hit 52% of their shots in that game and 45% from deep. The Jays, normally a great shooting team, had an off night 8 of their 29 three point attempts. That was an aberration in our opinion as UNLV is NOT a good defensive team. They rank outside the top 300 in eFG% allowed and are near the bottom of college basketball defending the arc (343rd). St Mary’s should have a huge edge defensive as they rank 23rd nationally in defensive efficiency. The Gaels should also dominate the glass ranking 21st nationally in offensive rebounding facing a UNLV team that ranks outside the top 200 in both offensive and defensive rebounding. The Rebs have only played 3 teams currently ranked inside the top 100 and lost 2 of those. St Mary’s will be the 2nd highest rated team UNLV has played this season. Lay the small number with the Gaels |
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12-15-23 | Magic v. Celtics -6 | Top | 111-128 | Win | 100 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -6 vs. Orlando Magic, 7:30 PM ET - These same two team met in Orlando in late November with the Celtics favored by -5.5-points. The Magic pulled the upset 113-96 when the C’s shot poorly at 41% while the Magic shot above their average at 51%. If Boston was a road favorite of -5.5-points they should be a larger favorite at home where they are 11-0 with an average margin of Victory of plus +15.9PPG. Orlando is 11-2 SU their last 13 games but 8 of those came at home. Their last two road games have been losses by 10 and 28-points. Boston has a big advantage from beyond the arc as the Magic shoot just 34.3% from Deep which ranks 26th in the NBA. Boston is the 13th best FG% shooting team in the NBA and rank 16th from the 3-point line. These two teams are very even defensively but the C’s are much better offensively ranking 7th in OEFF compared to the Magic who rank 18th. Lay the points. |
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12-13-23 | Pacers v. Bucks UNDER 259 | Top | 126-140 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY on 10* UNDER 258.5 or 259 Indiana Pacers at Milwaukee Bucks, 8 PM ET - These two teams just met in the In Season tournament with the Pacers upsetting the Bucks 128-119 as a 5.5-point underdog. There was a fallout in the Bucks locker room after the game regarding their defensive intensity, so we are expecting a much better effort on that end of the court tonight. The Bucks were the 4th best defensive efficiency team in the NBA a year ago allowing just 1.090 points per possession but have dropped to 23rd this season. Milwaukee is not that bad defensively, so we are expecting a trend up in this defensive category as the season wears on. Even with the Pacers being one of the fastest paced teams in the league and the most efficient offensively it will take great shooting and a lot of possession to eclipse tonight’s O/U number. In the most recent meeting these two teams combined for 198 field goal attempts, and both shot above 45% and the game finished with 247 total points. There have been roughly 339 NBA games played this season and only 24 of those games have finished with more total points being scored than tonight’s Over-Under. We are clearly betting the value and Under in this one. |
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12-13-23 | Pelicans v. Wizards OVER 241 | Top | 142-122 | Win | 100 | 8 h 36 m | Show |
ASA Top Play on 10* OVER 241 New Orleans Pelicans at Washington Wizards, 7:10 PM ET - Even if Zion Williamson can’t play tonight, we like this game Over. The Wizard routinely give up 130 or more points and if the Pels get to that number this game goes Over the total easily. Washington has allowed 130+ in 7 of their last ten games and 4 of their last five. They rank last in the league in defensive efficiency allowing 1.217PPP and points allowed per game at 126.3PPG. We know we will get plenty of possessions in this game as the Wiz rank 2nd in pace of play, the Pelicans are above average at 12th. New Orleans is 12th in DEFF but in their last five games they haven’t been as good on that end of the court ranking 22nd. It’s a given the Pelicans are going to score here but we obviously need Washington to put up points also and they should. Washington is 6th in team field goal percentage at 48.2%, and 10th in scoring at 115.6PPG. New Orleans gives up 113.9PPG which is the 18th highest number in the NBA. We expect plenty of points in this game and will play Over. |
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12-12-23 | Warriors v. Suns -3 | Top | 116-119 | Push | 0 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns -3 vs Golden State Warriors, 10:10 PM ET - We are making this wager with the assumption that Kevin Durant will be in the lineup tonight against his former team. These team have very similar efficiency stats with the Suns allowing 1.149 points per possession compared to the Warriors 1.146PPP. Offensively the Suns rank 9th in OEFF, the Warriors are 13th. This is difficult to comprehend but the Warriors currently rank 25th in the NBA in shooting at 45.2% and hit 36.7% from beyond the Arc which is 13th and well below the Warriors standards. Golden State will have a hard time shooting it tonight against a Suns team that is 9th best in opponents FG% overall and 6th defending the 3-point line. Phoenix is the 3rd best 3-point shooting team in the NBA and 15th overall at 47.5%. The Warriors do defend the 3 well allowing just 34.2% but with the potential return of Bradley Beal it will be tough to defend all the shooters the Suns can run at them. Two of the Warriors cornerstone scorers are really struggling right now as Wiggins and Thompson can’t seem to find their shooting stokes. The Suns have beaten this Warriors team twice already this season including an 8-point win on this floor in late November. |
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12-12-23 | Oral Roberts +13 v. Texas Tech | Top | 76-82 | Win | 100 | 8 h 34 m | Show |
#617 ASA TOP PLAY ON Oral Roberts +13 over Texas Tech, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - ORU is a very good mid major program coming off a 30-5 record a year ago. They did lose some players off that team but still have 2 solid starters back and we have the power rated as the 2nd best team in the Summit League. Their head coach from last season moved onto Wichita State but ORU hired his head assistant so the systems are still in place. They have played 2 high level Power 6 teams to the wire on the road this season losing at Texas A&M by 8 and at Kansas State in OT. The Golden Eagles have tested themselves early playing the 35th most difficult schedule (KenPom SOS ratings) and they won’t be intimidated here. Texas Tech has a new head coach (from North Texas), new systems, and they’ve overhauled nearly their entire roster from last season. The Red Raiders have a big game on deck Saturday vs SEC’s Vanderbilt so they might be peaking ahead to that game. They aren’t a great shooting team ranking 151st in eFG% and they struggle from beyond the arc hitting only 32%. Tech also lost one of their top players for the season, Devan Cambridge (10.5 PPG, 4.5 RPG), to a season ending injury in their most recent game. Oral Roberts can make 3’s (over 10 per game ranking 15th nationally) and they turn the ball over at a mere 13% rate (11th nationally). They have the ingredients to make this a very dangerous game for Texas Tech. This ORU program has lost a TOTAL of 4 regular season games by more than 10 points since the start of the 2021 season. Take the points here. |
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12-11-23 | Nets v. Kings OVER 234.5 | Top | 118-131 | Win | 100 | 18 h 47 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 234.5 Brooklyn Nets at Sacramento Kings, 10 PM ET - Brooklyn’s strength offensively is shooting the 3-ball as they are the best in the league in that department at 38.7%. The Kings don’t defend the 3 well allowing 37.5% 3PT shooting by opponents which is 24th in the NBA. Sacramento is more of a volume team as the 11th fastest paced team in the NBA and the 12th most efficient. You won’t find either of these teams in the top half of the league in defensive efficiency ratings either as the Kings rank 20th, the Nets are 17th. The Kings score an average of 120PPG at home while the Nets allow 120PPG on the road. Brooklyn is averaging 120PPG away from home and the Kings give up 119PPG. The Kings are on a 7-2 Over streak at home this season and are on a 34-19 Over run at home dating back to the start of last season. Now that Brooklyn is healthy the offense has started to click with 128, 129, 114 and 124 points in their last four games. With the added rest we like both teams to be fresh and expect the offenses to be locked in. Bet OVER! |
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12-09-23 | TCU v. Clemson +1 | Top | 66-74 | Win | 100 | 14 h 28 m | Show |
#664 ASA PLAY ON Clemson pick-em over TCU, Saturday at 4 PM ET - This game is on a neutral court in Toronto - Both teams step into this game undefeated but we have a huge strength of schedule difference between these 2 teams thus far. The Tigers have faced the 50th most difficult slate so far and have 4 top 85 wins including impressive road wins over Alabama and Pittsburgh. In their win @ Bama the Tigers made 10 fewer FT’s (attempted 11 fewer) and STILL won by 8 points over a Crimson Tide team that came into the game on a 20 game home winning streak. TCU is also unbeaten but their SOS thus far ranks 362nd which is the easiest slate so far in the entire country. The Horned Frogs haven’t played a single team ranked inside the top 175 while Clemson has played only 1 team ranked outside the top 175. Every opponent TCU has faced is currently ranked 270th or lower with the exception of Georgetown who ranks 176th and is the 2nd worst team in the Big East ahead of only DePaul. In their game @ Georgetown, TCU’s only game away from home this season, they barely topped the Hoyas 84-83. Both of these teams have shot the ball very well this season (both in the top 25 in eFG%), the problem is TCU has faced FIVE defenses (7 games played this season) vs teams ranked outside the top 300 in efficiency and not a single defense ranked higher than 225th. Meanwhile, Clemson has just played 3 straight teams with defensive efficiency ranks inside the top 100. Despite their weak slate, TCU has struggled to defend the arc allowing 35.2% (267th nationally) and Clemson has hit 41% of their triples this season (7th nationally). The Tigers rarely turn the ball over (36th nationally) and are very good on the defensive boards (27th nationally) which takes away TCU’s strengths of creating turnovers and offensive rebounding. Clemson’s tough schedule has prepared them for this moment while TCU is stepping WAY up in class compared to their previous opponents. Clemson wins this one. |
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12-09-23 | Grand Canyon v. Liberty -4.5 | Top | 69-64 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
#636 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Liberty -4.5 over Grand Canyon, Saturday at 2 PM ET - Tough spot here for Grand Canyon traveling to the east coast after pulling a huge, court storming win over San Diego State at home on Tuesday. This will be just the 2nd true road game of the season and by far their furthest travel thus far. The Antelopes only other road game was at UT Rio Grande Valley who is rated outside the top 300 per KenPom. Liberty is at home for the 2nd straight game after crushing Mississippi Valley State on Tuesday by 35 and the Flames were able to spread their minutes out nicely so they should be fresh here. Speaking of home, Liberty Arena has been very good to the Flames who’ve won 20 straight games here including topping Villanova last season. Liberty has a number of solid top 140 wins this year beating Wichita State, Furman, Charlotte, and Vermont, all away from home on neutral courts. Their losses have come vs FAU (top 20 team) and Charleston both away from home. While Grand Canyon has played all home games but 1, this Liberty team is 7-2 despite playing only 3 home games so far this season. The Flames return 4 starters from a team that finished with a 27-9 record last year. This veteran team has really shot the ball well (16th nationally in eFG%) and they are facing a Grand Canyon team that struggled to defend the arc allowing 35.5% (276th nationally). The Antelopes rely heavily on getting to the FT line with a whopping 28% of their points this year coming from the stripe (2nd most nationally). They may struggle to get calls on the road in this one and Liberty does very well at limiting fouls. Liberty plays a very slow tempo and should control the pace at home here which should take Grand Canyon out of their game as they love to play fast. This is a really solid situation to lay a small number with a very good team at home. Take Liberty |
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12-08-23 | Warriors v. Thunder -2.5 | Top | 136-138 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Oklahoma City Thunder -2.5 vs Golden State Warriors, 8:10 PM ET - This will be the 4th meeting of the season between these two teams and the Thunder have already won 2 of the three. If you bet these two teams based on their logos or history, you’ll probably be on the Warriors, but the facts of the matter are, OKC is the better team right now. Golden State stands 10-10 SU on the season and it’s a bye product of two things, poor shooting and lack of defense. The Warriors were 4th in effective FG% a year ago but currently rank 22nd this season. Klay Thompson and Andrew Wiggins are broke right now as Thompson is shooting a career low 39.7% overall and 34.8% from deep. Wiggins has a career shooting average of 44.9% overall and 35.2% from deep but he’s hitting just 42.3% and 26.2% this season. Last year the Warriors were 10th in offensive efficiency at 1.118PPP. This season they rank 14th at 1.107PPP. Golden State has slipped defensively, also ranking 15th in defensive efficiency this season allowing 1.140PPP. Oklahoma City is the 4th best team in the NBA in offensive efficiency and average 119.6PPG with the 3rd best EFG% at 56.2%. The Thunder also play defense with the 7th best DEFF rating in the league and hold foes to the second lowest FG% in the league at 43.7%. The Thunder are a solid home team with a 30-21 SU record dating back to the start of last season with an average +/- of +5.3PPG. Golden State is 17-40 SU their last 57 road games with a negative differential of minus -3.7PPG. OKC is coming off a loss on the road to Houston and will be up for this home date with Golden State. Lay it! |
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12-08-23 | Illinois-Chicago +1.5 v. Jacksonville State | Top | 55-49 | Win | 100 | 15 h 9 m | Show |
#887 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Illinois Chicago +1.5 over Jacksonville State, Friday at 7 PM ET - Our power ratings have UIC a slight favorite here so value with the Flames as an underdog. They’ve been undervalued all season with a 6-1 mark ATS. UIC as played the much tougher schedule (ranked 118th SOS by KenPom) having faced 4 teams (half of their games) vs teams ranked inside the top 180. Jax State has played the 317th ranked SOS per KenPom and prior to this game vs Illinois Chicago they have played a total of ONE team vs a team ranked inside the top 180 and that was a 13 point loss. Per KenPom’s ratings, the Flames will be the best team Jacksonville State has faced this season (UIC ranked 124th) and the Gamecocks have already lost 4 games vs teams ranked outside the top 200. That includes 2 home game losses vs team ranked 200 or lower. The Flames have had a full week off after back to back losses UNC Greensboro (by 1 point) and vs Illinois State (by 5 points) so we expect them to be very focused on this one. Despite playing the tougher schedule, Illinois Chicago is better on both ends of the court. The Flames average 1.03 PPP offensively while allowing just 0.99 PPP on defense compared to Jax State who averaged 1.01 PPP while giving up 1.03 PPP. UIC has been fantastic defensively all season ranking 15th in eFG% allowed and 2nd nationally guarding the arc allowing opponents to shoot only 23% from deep. They should have their way on that end of the court vs a Gamecock offense that is outside the top 200 in eFG%, 2 point FG%, 3 point FG%, FT%, and scoring. We’ll take the better team getting points with motivation off 2 straight losses. |
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12-07-23 | Pacers v. Bucks -4.5 | Top | 128-119 | Loss | -107 | 14 h 12 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Milwaukee Bucks -4.5 vs Indiana Pacers, 5 PM ET - *NOTE THE EARLY TIPOFF* - We like the Bucks big here in this In Season Tourney game. The Pacers are coming off a HUGE home win over the Celtics and fed off the energy from the home crowd. Now the young Pacers are playing on a neutral court against a motivated Bucks team. Milwaukee is starting to figure things out with their new lineup and the addition of Dame Lillard. They beat a very good Knicks team the other night handily at home by 24-points. The Bucks are 10-2 SU their last twelve games while the Pacers check in with a 5-5 SU record their last ten games. This is the second meeting of the season for these two teams with the Pacers upsetting the Bucks at home by 2-points as a 1-point underdog. Milwaukee has beaten this franchise in 8 of the last ten meetings overall. Both teams are highly efficient on the offensive end of the court ranking 1st and 6th in OEFF but the Bucks hold an advantage on the defensive end of the court as the Pacers rank 29th out of 30 teams in defensive efficiency. Milwaukee also defends the 3-point line well by holding opponents to 36.3% shooting which is 13th best in the NBA. Conversely, the Pacers allow foes to make 39.1% of their 3PT attempts which ranks 28th and the Bucks own the 6th best 3PT% in the league. Fear the Deer! |
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12-06-23 | Richmond v. Northern Iowa -2 | Top | 73-78 | Win | 100 | 20 h 34 m | Show |
#730 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Northern Iowa -2 over Richmond, Wednesday at 8 PM ET - This line opened with Richmond favored and quickly flipped to Northern Iowa as a small favorite and we agree. It hasn’t moved enough in our opinion as we’re getting a veteran, desperate Panther team at home at near a pick-em. The reason we’re getting some solid value on UNI is because their record is just 2-6 so far this season. They’ve played the 20th most difficult schedule in the nation according to KenPom while Richmond, who has a 5-3 record, has played the 270th most difficult schedule. The Panthers bring back 4 starters and 91% of their minutes from last season and 4 of their 7 Division 1 opponents currently rank inside the top 100. They have a solid top 100 win over Stanford 73-51 and nearly beat Texas Tech losing by 2 points. Richmond, on the other hand, has played only 2 teams currently inside the top 125 and lost to both (Boston College & Wichita State). Those were also the Spiders only 2 road games this season losing both by 7 and 12 points. Four of Richmond’s five wins have come vs teams ranked outside the top 250 and 3 of those wins were vs teams ranked 315 or lower. The Spiders played host to this match up last year as 6 points favorites and won by 13. However, they lost nearly everyone of note from last year’s team with only 1 starter returning. UNI is off a tough OT loss on Saturday @ Evansville and their last home game was their worst outing of the season (loss to Belmont) so we expect a huge effort in this one. If this game was played a few weeks ago we’d be laying a much larger number with Northern. Take the Panthers at home. |
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12-06-23 | Heat v. Raptors -3.5 | Top | 112-103 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 29 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Toronto Raptors -3.5 vs. Miami Heat, 7:40 PM ET - We like the Raptors here and predict a double-digit win by the home team. Miami is dealing with two key injuries to Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo which has made them an ‘average’ team at best. The Heat have a positive net rating but have faced the 21st easiest schedule in the NBA. Toronto on the other hand has a slight negative differential but they have faced the 5th toughest schedule in the league this season. Miami is 6-6 SU on the road this season with a +1.8PPG differential. Toronto is 5-4 SU at home with an average MOV of +3.8PPG. These two teams have very similar offensive and defensive efficiency ratings, but the Heat are clearly not at full strength here. The Raptors are coming off a home loss to the Knicks but had won 3 straight at home by 7, 13 and 29-points. Toronto owned Miami last season by winning 3 of the four regular season meetings SU, covering all four. The Raptors are 31-21 ATS at home since the start of last season with an average MOV of +4PPG. We like Toronto at home in this one. |
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ASA Basketball Top Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
02-02-24 | Magic +8 v. Wolves | Top | 108-106 | Win | 100 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
02-01-24 | Seattle University v. Grand Canyon -9.5 | Top | 88-95 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
02-01-24 | Pacers v. Knicks OVER 240.5 | Top | 105-109 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 44 m | Show |
01-31-24 | Boise State v. New Mexico -10.5 | Top | 86-78 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 58 m | Show |
01-31-24 | Bucks v. Blazers +10.5 | Top | 116-119 | Win | 100 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
01-31-24 | Pelicans -2.5 v. Rockets | Top | 110-99 | Win | 100 | 19 h 11 m | Show |
01-31-24 | St. John's v. Xavier -120 | Top | 77-88 | Win | 100 | 17 h 2 m | Show |
01-30-24 | San Diego State v. Colorado State -2 | Top | 71-79 | Win | 100 | 19 h 36 m | Show |
01-30-24 | Raptors v. Bulls -5.5 | Top | 118-107 | Loss | -113 | 19 h 20 m | Show |
01-30-24 | Iowa v. Indiana +1.5 | Top | 68-74 | Win | 100 | 17 h 44 m | Show |
01-29-24 | Wolves +2.5 v. Thunder | Top | 107-101 | Win | 100 | 20 h 58 m | Show |
01-28-24 | Nevada v. New Mexico -8 | Top | 55-89 | Win | 100 | 21 h 4 m | Show |
01-28-24 | Raptors +6.5 v. Hawks | Top | 125-126 | Win | 100 | 17 h 20 m | Show |
01-27-24 | Kings -1.5 v. Mavs | Top | 120-115 | Win | 100 | 19 h 24 m | Show |
01-27-24 | Idaho State v. Weber State -11.5 | Top | 74-64 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 39 m | Show |
01-27-24 | Kansas v. Iowa State -4 | Top | 75-79 | Push | 0 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
01-26-24 | St. Joe's v. St Bonaventure -2.5 | Top | 72-91 | Win | 100 | 17 h 20 m | Show |
01-26-24 | Cavs v. Bucks UNDER 238.5 | Top | 112-100 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
01-25-24 | Kings v. Warriors +2.5 | Top | 134-133 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
01-25-24 | New Mexico State v. Sam Houston State -4.5 | Top | 67-79 | Win | 100 | 17 h 59 m | Show |
01-25-24 | 76ers v. Pacers OVER 237.5 | Top | 122-134 | Win | 100 | 8 h 60 m | Show |
01-24-24 | Colorado State v. Nevada -2.5 | Top | 64-77 | Win | 100 | 18 h 16 m | Show |
01-24-24 | Cavs v. Bucks -6.5 | Top | 116-126 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show |
01-24-24 | Davidson v. St. Louis -1.5 | Top | 84-61 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 54 m | Show |
01-23-24 | Nuggets v. Pacers UNDER 240.5 | Top | 114-109 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
01-23-24 | UAB v. Charlotte -4 | Top | 70-76 | Win | 100 | 14 h 0 m | Show |
01-22-24 | Bulls v. Suns UNDER 229 | Top | 113-115 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
01-21-24 | Pacers v. Suns -4.5 | Top | 110-117 | Win | 100 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
01-21-24 | Wichita State +4.5 v. South Florida | Top | 68-72 | Win | 100 | 9 h 60 m | Show |
01-20-24 | Virginia v. Georgia Tech +2 | Top | 75-66 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
01-20-24 | Louisiana Tech v. Jacksonville State +4 | Top | 74-57 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
01-19-24 | Hawks v. Heat -6.5 | Top | 109-108 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
01-19-24 | St. Louis +8.5 v. VCU | Top | 61-85 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 26 m | Show |
01-18-24 | Western Kentucky v. New Mexico State -125 | Top | 70-72 | Win | 100 | 16 h 47 m | Show |
01-18-24 | Florida International v. Liberty -12.5 | Top | 69-78 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
01-17-24 | Bucks -3.5 v. Cavs | Top | 95-135 | Loss | -115 | 16 h 11 m | Show |
01-17-24 | Virginia Tech v. Virginia -3.5 | Top | 57-65 | Win | 100 | 16 h 38 m | Show |
01-16-24 | Kings v. Suns -5 | Top | 117-119 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 50 m | Show |
01-16-24 | Purdue v. Indiana +10.5 | Top | 87-66 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 44 m | Show |
01-15-24 | Pacers +7.5 v. Jazz | Top | 105-132 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 31 m | Show |
01-15-24 | Iowa v. Minnesota -1.5 | Top | 86-77 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
01-14-24 | Kings +5.5 v. Bucks | Top | 142-143 | Win | 100 | 17 h 52 m | Show |
01-13-24 | Pelicans v. Mavs OVER 231 | Top | 118-108 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
01-13-24 | Drake v. Southern Illinois +2.5 | Top | 76-58 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 18 m | Show |
01-13-24 | San Diego State v. New Mexico -3.5 | Top | 70-88 | Win | 100 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
01-12-24 | Blazers v. Wolves -14 | Top | 93-116 | Win | 100 | 16 h 22 m | Show |
01-12-24 | Minnesota v. Indiana -4 | Top | 62-74 | Win | 100 | 15 h 56 m | Show |
01-11-24 | Celtics +6 v. Bucks | Top | 102-135 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 58 m | Show |
01-11-24 | Old Dominion v. Georgia State -5.5 | Top | 70-77 | Win | 100 | 16 h 32 m | Show |
01-10-24 | Nuggets -6.5 v. Jazz | Top | 111-124 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 30 m | Show |
01-10-24 | Murray State v. Missouri State -4 | Top | 77-53 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
01-09-24 | Texas v. Cincinnati -5 | Top | 74-73 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 57 m | Show |
01-08-24 | Thunder -11 v. Wizards | Top | 136-128 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 30 m | Show |
01-06-24 | Ohio State v. Indiana +1.5 | Top | 65-71 | Win | 100 | 18 h 54 m | Show |
01-05-24 | Magic +9.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 122-120 | Win | 100 | 7 h 2 m | Show |
01-04-24 | Nuggets v. Warriors +3 | Top | 130-127 | Push | 0 | 26 h 43 m | Show |
01-04-24 | Minnesota v. Michigan -6 | Top | 73-71 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 47 m | Show |
01-03-24 | Thunder v. Hawks +2 | Top | 138-141 | Win | 100 | 12 h 0 m | Show |
01-03-24 | Loyola-Chicago v. St. Louis -2 | Top | 80-73 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
01-02-24 | New Mexico v. Colorado State -3 | Top | 68-76 | Win | 100 | 15 h 11 m | Show |
01-02-24 | Celtics v. Thunder +3.5 | Top | 123-127 | Win | 100 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
12-30-23 | Knicks v. Pacers -4.5 | Top | 126-140 | Win | 100 | 6 h 1 m | Show |
12-30-23 | Creighton v. Marquette OVER 150 | Top | 67-72 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 42 m | Show |
12-29-23 | Hornets v. Suns UNDER 231.5 | Top | 119-133 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
12-29-23 | East Tennessee State v. East Carolina -8 | Top | 86-70 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
12-28-23 | Heat v. Warriors -3.5 | Top | 114-102 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
12-28-23 | UCLA v. Oregon State UNDER 128.5 | Top | 69-62 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
12-28-23 | UC-Santa Barbara -2 v. UC-Davis | Top | 62-76 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 28 m | Show |
12-27-23 | Knicks v. Thunder -2.5 | Top | 120-129 | Win | 100 | 9 h 47 m | Show |
12-26-23 | Grizzlies v. Pelicans -4.5 | Top | 116-115 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 15 m | Show |
12-25-23 | 76ers -120 v. Heat | Top | 113-119 | Loss | -120 | 30 h 20 m | Show |
12-25-23 | Warriors v. Nuggets -6.5 | Top | 114-120 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 60 m | Show |
12-23-23 | Missouri State v. St. Mary's -12.5 | Top | 69-64 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 6 m | Show |
12-23-23 | Grizzlies -117 v. Hawks | Top | 125-119 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
12-22-23 | Nuggets v. Nets +4.5 | Top | 122-117 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
12-21-23 | Clippers v. Thunder -4.5 | Top | 115-134 | Win | 100 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
12-21-23 | Jacksonville State v. Arkansas-Little Rock -2.5 | Top | 90-60 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 7 m | Show |
12-20-23 | North Carolina -2.5 v. Oklahoma | Top | 81-69 | Win | 100 | 14 h 57 m | Show |
12-20-23 | Hawks v. Rockets -3 | Top | 134-127 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
12-20-23 | Nuggets -4 v. Raptors | Top | 113-104 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
12-19-23 | Celtics v. Warriors UNDER 235 | Top | 126-132 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 29 m | Show |
12-19-23 | Lindenwood v. Missouri State -17.5 | Top | 57-79 | Win | 100 | 6 h 34 m | Show |
12-18-23 | Wizards v. Kings OVER 247 | Top | 131-143 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
12-18-23 | Jacksonville State v. Tarleton St UNDER 126.5 | Top | 65-62 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 10 m | Show |
12-17-23 | Rockets +7 v. Bucks | Top | 119-128 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 34 m | Show |
12-16-23 | Hawks v. Cavs -2.5 | Top | 119-127 | Win | 100 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
12-16-23 | UNLV v. St. Mary's -5 | Top | 67-69 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 16 m | Show |
12-15-23 | Magic v. Celtics -6 | Top | 111-128 | Win | 100 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
12-13-23 | Pacers v. Bucks UNDER 259 | Top | 126-140 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
12-13-23 | Pelicans v. Wizards OVER 241 | Top | 142-122 | Win | 100 | 8 h 36 m | Show |
12-12-23 | Warriors v. Suns -3 | Top | 116-119 | Push | 0 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
12-12-23 | Oral Roberts +13 v. Texas Tech | Top | 76-82 | Win | 100 | 8 h 34 m | Show |
12-11-23 | Nets v. Kings OVER 234.5 | Top | 118-131 | Win | 100 | 18 h 47 m | Show |
12-09-23 | TCU v. Clemson +1 | Top | 66-74 | Win | 100 | 14 h 28 m | Show |
12-09-23 | Grand Canyon v. Liberty -4.5 | Top | 69-64 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
12-08-23 | Warriors v. Thunder -2.5 | Top | 136-138 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
12-08-23 | Illinois-Chicago +1.5 v. Jacksonville State | Top | 55-49 | Win | 100 | 15 h 9 m | Show |
12-07-23 | Pacers v. Bucks -4.5 | Top | 128-119 | Loss | -107 | 14 h 12 m | Show |
12-06-23 | Richmond v. Northern Iowa -2 | Top | 73-78 | Win | 100 | 20 h 34 m | Show |
12-06-23 | Heat v. Raptors -3.5 | Top | 112-103 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 29 m | Show |