Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
10-29-22 | Ohio State v. Penn State UNDER 61.5 | Top | 44-31 | Loss | -110 | 119 h 3 m | Show |
Big Ten Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Ohio State and Penn State at 12 noon et on Saturday. Ohio State has been tearing through the opposition, scoring 45 points or more in all six games since putting up only 21 points in a low-scoring win over Notre Dame to open the campaign. Here, I do think there's a path for Penn State to stay competitive and ultimately do a reasonably good job of keeping the Buckeyes defense under wraps. Note that while Ohio State did score 54 points in a rout of Iowa last week, a lot of the Hawkeyes issues were self-inflicted. After scoring a touchdown around midway through the first quarter, Ohio State didn't reach the end zone again on offense until more than five minutes into the third quarter. Penn State bounced back nicely from a drubbing a the hands of Michigan one week previous, delivering a 45-17 rout of Minnesota on Saturday. Note that the Nittany Lions didn't allow a touchdown in that game until they were already ahead 17-3 with less than a minute remaining in the first half. The Golden Gophers didn't score again until nearly midway through the fourth quarter, already trailing by a score of 38-10 at the time. Note that Penn State has held five of its last six opponents to 17 points or less. Of course Ohio State poses a serious challenge and will undoubtedly score its share of points in this contest, but I don't anticipate Penn State getting ripped the way it did against Michigan's run-heavy attack two weeks ago. Offensively, the Nittany Lions gameplan should involve orchestrating long, clock-churning drives in an effort to shorten this contest and keep the ball out of the hands of the high-powered Ohio State offense. I do think that's well within the realm of possibility with seasoned QB Sean Clifford running the offense. The Nittany Lions were able to possess the football for 29:50 in last year's matchup and that was despite getting virtually nothing from their ground attack. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 33-17 in Penn State's last 50 games played at home following a home victory, as is the case here, with that spot producing an average total of just 49.0 points. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
10-28-22 | Rockets +5.5 v. Blazers | Top | 111-125 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 13 m | Show |
Western Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Houston plus the points over Portland at 10:10 pm et on Friday. The Blazers had their perfect 4-0 start to the season stopped in a blowout loss against the Heat two nights ago. Not only did they lose that game but they lost their best player in Damian Lillard to injury as well. Regardless whether Portland has Lillard or not, I like the Rockets catching a handful of points here. Note that Portland has had a tough enough time just getting shots off this season, attempting 88, 82, 84, 83 and 78 field goals through its first five games. On the flip side, the Blazers have yielded 41+ made field goals in four consecutive games with three of their five opponents getting off 91+ FG attempts this season. That's obviously the pace the Rockets prefer to play at, noting that they've hoisted up 90+ FG attempts in four straight games. They haven't shot well over that stretch but should bounce back here. Note that Houston is a long-term 73-47 ATS when playing on the road after losing four of its last five games, as is the case here, while Portland checks in 18-36 ATS in its last 54 games following a loss. Take Houston (10*). |
|||||||
10-28-22 | Penguins v. Canucks +140 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 140 | 15 h 38 m | Show |
Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Vancouver over Pittsburgh at 10:05 pm et on Friday. The Canucks finally picked up their first win of the season last night in Seattle and I look for them to build off the positive momentum provided by that victory as they return home to host the Penguins on Friday. Pittsburgh scored 26 goals in its first five games this season but has been held to only four in the first two games of its current four-game road trip. Worse still, after holding five straight opponents to three goals or less, the Pens have been lit up for 10 goals over their last two contests. Meanwhile, Vancouver posted its highest scoring output of the season in last night's win, providing a glimmer of hope as it enters this key four-game homestand. Note that the Canucks will be playing with double-revenge here after dropping both of last season's meetings with Pittsburgh. The Pens haven't posted three straight victories over the Canucks since 2016-17. Take Vancouver (10*). |
|||||||
10-28-22 | East Carolina v. BYU UNDER 61.5 | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 105 h 2 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between East Carolina and BYU at 8 pm et on Friday. I don't think this is anywhere near the type of track meet that most are expecting as it's actually a critical game for both teams as far as potential Bowl standing goes. East Carolina is coming off a massive upset win over Central Florida on Saturday. The Knights had owned the Pirates for years and certainly entered the game playing well (including scoring 70 points in their previous contest) so that was an uplifting result for ECU to be sure. Credit the Pirates defense in that game as the only touchdown it allowed came when leading by a 17-3 score in the third quarter. ECU has certainly given up its share of yardage to opposing offenses but it has that ball-hawking ability, having forced six turnovers in the last two games alone. With that in mind, job number one for BYU's struggling offense will be to take care of the football. The Cougars have gotten away from their running game more than they'd like but that's had everything to do with game script as they've dropped their last three contests. I do think we see them go back to the run from the outset in this one in an effort to effectively shorten this game against a dangerous Pirates offense. Last time out against Liberty, BYU scored a pair of first quarter touchdowns but then didn't score again the rest of the way. After that embarrassing defensive performance (the Cougars allowed six Liberty scoring drives over a 34-minute stretch from the second to fourth quarter) I expect that unit to respond favorably here. This Cougars defense is too talented to struggle as badly as it has. Of course, facing Arkansas and Liberty in consecutive games is a tall task for even the best of defenses. Note that East Carolina has actually only played one true road game this season and it scored just nine points in that 15-point loss at Tulane. I mentioned this is a critical game for both teams in regard to Bowl game prospects. ECU does have what figures to be a layup in the final week of the season against Temple (it only needs one more win for Bowl eligibility) but you can be sure it would like to take care of business well before that. For BYU, things are a little tougher as they enter with just four wins and have only three games left on the schedule, including this one (it will face Boise State and Stanford - both on the road - to close out the regular season). I'm anticipating a tightly-contested affair and I think that lends itself to a game of the lower-scoring variety in this case. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
10-27-22 | Heat v. Warriors UNDER 226 | Top | 110-123 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 8 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Golden State at 10:10 pm et on Thursday. The Heat will be playing the second of back-to-back nights off a lopsided win in Portland last night. Miami had little success breaking through against Golden State in two matchups last season, making good on just 37 field goals in each contest. While the Warriors have looked vulnerable defensively in the early going this season, they do come in the more rested team and off a 134-105 dismantling at the hands of the Suns (we won with Phoenix in that game) two nights ago, I'm confident we'll see them come out much sharper on Thursday. Note that this has all the markings of a game Steve Kerr's Warriors would like to 'manage' noting that they'll head out on a five-game in seven-night road trip that begins Friday in Charlotte. While Miami did score 119 points in last night's victory, the Heat have played at a reasonably slow pace, getting off 80, 92, 76, 83 and 87 field goal attempts through their first five games this season. In the outlier they hoisted up 92 field goal attempts but still scored 'only' 104 points in a loss against Boston (that game totalled just 215 points). Defensively, Miami has been as locked-in as any team in the Association, holding each of its last four opponents to 87 or fewer FG attempts while yielding just 37, 34 and 34 made field goals over its last three contests. The Warriors last three opponents have quite simply shot the lights out but I'm not convinced we'll see that from the Heat in a back-to-back, three-in-four and five-in-seven situation here. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
10-27-22 | UL-Lafayette v. Southern Miss | Top | 24-39 | Loss | -110 | 82 h 32 m | Show |
Sun Belt Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Louisiana minus the points over Southern Miss at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. Louisiana is absolutely playing its best football of the season right now and I think Southern Miss is ripe for the picking off consecutive wins - matching its longest winning streak of the season. The Ragin' Cajuns were overvalued early in the season, there's no question about that. They were favored by 11.5 and 9.5 points in their first two road games against Rice and Louisiana-Monroe and lost both contests outright. They followed up those two road defeats with another narrow home loss against South Alabama. The turnaround started two weeks ago, when the Ragin' Cajuns went on the road and upset Marshall by double-digits (as a double-digit underdog). From there, Louisiana routed Arkansas State 38-18 on Saturday. An injury to QB Chandler Fields has actually settled the situation under center with Ben Wooldridge taking over full-time. Keep in mind, the Ragin' Cajuns had been going with a two-man QB rotation, to mixed results. Suddenly Wooldridge has thrown for 546 yards, seven touchdowns and no interceptions over the last two games. Over its last six quarters of action, Louisiana has had a 16-minute stretch where it put together four scoring drives against Marshall and scored four offensive touchdowns in a 13-minute stretch against Arkansas State. Meanwhile, the Ragin' Cajuns defense, which was poised to be one of the best units in the Sun Belt Conference entering the season but got off to a sluggish start, has also come around. Louisiana has completely stamped out opposing passing games over the last month, yielding just 61-of-121 passing. The Ragin' Cajuns defense, which has forced 17 turnovers this season, has to be frothing at the mouth at the thought of facing a Southern Miss offense that has coughed the football up nine times over the last three games. The Golden Eagles offense continues to struggle, even though the team has won consecutive games. They scored exactly 20 points in each of those victories. QB Zach Wilcke has struggled now that there's plenty of tape out there on him - he's thrown more than one touchdown pass only once this season while tossing seven interceptions over the last three games. Unlike Louisiana QB Wooldridge, Wilcke is fairly limited in terms of his running ability. RB Frank Gore Jr. is terrific but should the Golden Eagles fall behind as I expect here, it could be tough sledding for the dynamic back due to game script alone. Here, we'll note that Louisiana is a long-term 65-43 ATS when playing on the road from October on. Take Louisiana (10*). |
|||||||
10-27-22 | Canadiens v. Sabres UNDER 6.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 105 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
Atlantic Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Montreal and Buffalo at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. Last season, we saw three of four meetings between these two teams stay 'under' 6.5 total goals and I expect a similar outcome on Thursday as the Canadiens and Sabres match up for the first time this season. Montreal has struggled to find the back of the net with any consistency this season, scoring 4, 0, 1, 3, 6, 2 and 1 goal through its first seven contests. The good news is, the Habs have held six of their seven opponents to three goals or less. It's been 'feast-or-famine' for the Sabres offensively. They piled up 15 goals in a three-game swing through western Canada last week but outside of that have scored just eight goals in their other three contests. After allowing five goals in a blowout loss in Seattle two nights ago, I'm confident we'll see the Sabres tighten things up here. They've held four of their six opponents to three goals or less and three of those opponents to two goals or fewer. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
10-26-22 | Rockets v. Jazz -5.5 | Top | 101-109 | Win | 100 | 13 h 5 m | Show |
Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Utah minus the points over Houston at 9:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Rockets got the better of the Jazz by a 114-108 score in Houston two nights ago but I look for Utah to answer right back on Wednesday back in Salt Lake City. Despite dropping that contest, the Jazz continued their streak of hot shooting to open the campaign, knocking down 44 field goals - their fourth straight game hitting 42+ field goals. Having hoisted up 111 (aided by overtime), 98 and 93 field goal attempts over their last three contests, I'm confident the Jazz can overwhelm a weak Rockets defense here. Even in Monday's win, Houston still allowed Utah to get off 93 FG attempts, as mentioned. The Rockets have now yielded their first four opponents' 45, 45, 48 and 43 made field goals. On the flip side, Houston has knocked down just 36 and 38 field goals over its last two games. Even with a number of new faces in the lineup, the Jazz are clearly comfortable operating in an extremely fast-paced environment. Despite Monday's victory, I think the Rockets are still figuring things out with their youthful roster. Here, we'll note that the Rockets are just 13-24 ATS in their last 37 games as an underdog priced between +3.5 and +9.5 points, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 9.4 points in that situation. Take Utah (10*). |
|||||||
10-26-22 | 76ers v. Raptors UNDER 215.5 | Top | 109-119 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
Atlantic Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Toronto at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. Few teams have been as locked-in defensively as the Raptors in the early going this season. They check in having held their first four opponents to 77, 80, 76 and 83 field goal attempts and have yet to allow more than 38 made field goals in any of those contests. Not surprisingly, the 'under' has cashed in three of their four games to date. Offensively, it's been a bit of a struggle. Toronto has topped out at 41 made field goals and that came in a game where it scored just 105 points in a loss in Brooklyn. The 76ers have struggled offensively out of the gate as well, getting off no more than 84 field goal attempts in any of their four contests. They shot exceptionally well in their opener against the Celtics but it came at the expense of their defense in a 126-117 loss (we won with the Celtics in that game). Only one of Philadelphia's four opponents has reached 90 FG attempts and that was Indiana last time out, scoring just 106 points in that game. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
10-25-22 | Golden Knights v. Sharks UNDER 6.5 | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 26 m | Show |
Pacific Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Vegas and San Jose at 10:35 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the 'under' in the Sharks shutout victory over the Flyers on Sunday and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play as they return home to host the Golden Knights on Tuesday. Vegas is in a back-to-back spot after defeating the Maple Leafs by a 3-1 score on home ice last night. The Knights are off to a terrific start to the season and it's had a lot to do with their defensive play. The 'under' checks in 3-0-1 in their last four games as they've scored 2, 5, 2 and 3 goals over that stretch. Vegas has allowed only 3, 0, 2, 3, 2, 3 and 1 goal in its first seven contests this season and now draws an offensively-challenged Sharks squad that has yet to top the three-goal mark this season, reaching that number only twice in eight games. The good news for San Jose is that it has tightened things up defensively, yielding just four goals in its last three games combined. Note that 11 of the last 15 meetings in this series have stayed 'under' 6.5 total goals. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
10-24-22 | Nuggets v. Blazers UNDER 227.5 | Top | 110-135 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 36 m | Show |
Northwest Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and Portland at 10:10 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams are content to play at a relatively slow pace, noting that the Nuggets have gotten off 83, 86 and 85 field goal attempts in their first three games while the Blazers are in a similar boat, attempting 88, 82 and 84 field goals in their first three contests. We did see Denver look somewhat vulnerable defensively on Saturday against Oklahoma City (we won with the Thunder plus the points in that game) but that was in a tough back-to-back and three-in-four spot off an exhausting 128-123 road win over the Warriors the night previous. Prior to that, the Nuggets had held the opposition to 83 and 88 field goal attempts in their first two contests. Denver's first three opponents have shot exceptionally well from the field, with all three making good on exactly 42 field goals. I don't think the Nuggets face the same challenge here, however, as the Blazers are still finding their way offensively, knocking down 39, 36 and 37 field goals in their first three contests. This will be the fifth meeting between these two teams going back to the start of last season and as I often say, familiarity tends to lend itself to relatively low-scoring basketball. Note that only twice in those previous four meetings did either side get off more than 88 FG attempts with Denver getting to 90 once and Portland reaching 91 on one occasion (those two contests still totalled only 219 and 216 points). Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
10-24-22 | Bears v. Patriots -8 | Top | 33-14 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 37 m | Show |
MNF Game of the Month. My selection is on New England minus the points over Chicago at 8:15 pm et on Monday. The Bears have had but one truly favorable offensive matchup this season - that coming two games back in Minnesota (we won with the 'over' in that contest) and I suppose you could say they took advantage, scoring 22 points, albeit on just 271 total yards. Outside of that, the Chicago offense has been rather unimaginative and certainly unproductive and I expect that to continue on Monday as it draws a poor matchup against a still-underrated Patriots defense. New England has absolutely erased the majority of the passing games it has faced this season, limiting each of its last five opponents to 21 or fewer pass completions (only its first opponent this season - Miami - topped that mark with 23). Teams that have elected to stick with the run against the Patriots have had moderate success in terms of yardage gained, but not to much in terms of reaching the end zone. I like the Bears offense far better when they have a clear lead back but that's not the case right now with David Montgomery healthy. If anything, Montgomery's health is holding back incumbent Khalil Herbert who has looked like the more explosive RB. The Patriots are expected to have both QB Mac Jones and RB Damien Harris back on offense. While RB Rhamondre Stevenson has performed well, it certainly doesn't hurt getting Harris back as he's proven to have a real nose for the end zone over the course of his career. There are certainly Mac Jones doubters out there, especially given how well Bailey Zappe has performed in his absence, but I think he does just fine here, serving little more than a 'game manager' role noting that the Bears have been lit up by opposing ground games, allowing 4.7 yards per rush. While we usually look to fade teams coming off ATS winning streaks, the Pats don't appear to qualify as they've gone an incredible 47-29 ATS in their last 76 games following three straight ATS victories, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 8.4 points in that situation. Meanwhile, Chicago checks in 5-13 ATS in its last 18 games in an underdog role, outscored by 9.2 points on average in that spot. Take New England (10*). |
|||||||
10-23-22 | Suns v. Clippers UNDER 220 | Top | 112-95 | Win | 100 | 16 h 36 m | Show |
Pacific Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Sunday. I'm not convinced the pace will be there to warrant a total in the 220's on Sunday night in Los Angeles. Phoenix has incredibly limited its first two opponents to just 75 and 74 field goal attempts in regulation time. Opponents are having a tough enough time just getting shots off let alone knocking them down. The Clippers don't figure to be the opponent to break through as they're still finding their way with last night's 41 made field goals serving as their high-water mark going back over their last five games, including preseason action. It's a similar story for the Suns as they're off to a 1-1 start, knocking down 40 and 39 field goals in regulation time in those two contests. They made 40 field goals in a come-from-behind win over the Mavericks to open the season (scoring only 107 points in the process) and that's their highest total across five games, including the preseason. Four meetings between these two teams last season totalled 206, 195, 199 and 222 points. I believe tonight's total will prove too high, noting that the 'under' is 18-5 in the Suns last 23 games following a loss and better still, 12-1 in their last 13 contests off a road defeat. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
10-23-22 | Steelers v. Dolphins OVER 44.5 | Top | 10-16 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 8 m | Show |
SNF Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Pittsburgh and Miami at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. There's a lot to like about how this game sets up as a potential shootout, although perhaps not at first glance. We've only seen Steelers QB Kenny Pickett for one full game as he suffered a concussion in last week's stunning victory over the Buccaneers. In that contest he completed 34-of-52 passes for 327 yards against a pretty good Bills defense, on the road no less. While that performance was somewhat aided by game script as the Steelers trailed (by a wide margin) most of the way, there's no guarantee that won't be the case again as a touchdown underdog here. Miami is dealing with a cluster of injuries in its secondary and one of the only healthy bodies isn't even all that healthy as CB Xavien Howard has dealt with groin injuries all season long. The Dolphins defense as a whole has been unimposing for opposing quarterbacks, who have carved them up for 10 touchdown passes and only one interception. Meanwhile, the Dolphins are expected to have QB Tua Tagovailoa back from his scary concussion suffered 3+ weeks ago. He returns with a full compliment of weapons (Tyreek Hill was dropped from the injury report this week) and faces an injury-depleted Steelers defense that held up well at home against the Buccaneers last week but isn't likely to turn the trick for a second straight Sunday. Only one team has allowed more yardage to opposing wide receivers and no team has given up more touchdowns to that position this season. The Dolphins previous three home games were all played in the sweltering afternoon heat whereas this game will be played under the lights. I believe that lends itself to a higher-scoring affair than we've been accustomed to seeing here in Miami this season. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
10-23-22 | Blue Jackets v. Rangers -1.5 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 30 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on New York -1.5 goals over Columbus at 5:05 pm et on Sunday. The Blue Jackets had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 6-3 loss to the Penguins on home ice last night. Meanwhile, the Rangers have been idle since Thursday, when they suffered a rare home loss by a 3-2 score against San Jose. The Blueshirts clearly got caught looking past the lowly Sharks in that game after a 3-1 start to the campaign. I don't expect them to do the Blue Jackets any such favors on Sunday, however. Columbus is going to give up its share of goals. Note that it has allowed 4, 5, 5, 3, 3 and 6 goals in six contests so far this season. While the Jackets have scored 12 goals over their last three games, I expect them to run into trouble with the Rangers rested and off a disappointing loss, not to mention playing at home. Note that New York has allowed an average of just 2.1 goals in 28 games following a home defeat over the last three seasons. Columbus checks in averaging only 2.0 goals per contest when playing on the road against division opponents over the same stretch. Take New York -1.5 goals (10*). |
|||||||
10-23-22 | Jets v. Broncos +1 | Top | 16-9 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 24 m | Show |
AFC Game of the Week. My selection is on Denver over New York at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. NOTE: Russell Wilson has been ruled out for the Broncos. Brett Rypien will start in his place. I'll stick with the play as I'm not sure that Rypien's presence changes what Denver will be looking to do and that's churn out long, clock-eating drives on offense while leaving the rest in the hands of its capable defense. Everyone is down on the Broncos right now while the Jets, perhaps along with the Giants, are the NFL's 'flavor of the month'. We actually won with the Jets last week in their outright blowout win in Green Bay. I loved the way that spot set up for Gang Green but I think it's a much different story this week as they stay on the road for a second straight game to face the down-trodden Broncos in Denver. With New York suddenly 4-2 on the season, just one game back of first place in the AFC East, this becomes a clear look-ahead spot as its next three games will come at home against New England and Buffalo, followed by a bye week and then a quick road rematch against the Patriots. I still feel this Jets squad has some warts. QB Zach Wilson has generally been awful since taking over the reins under center, completing just 42-of-75 passes for 572 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. Yes, rookie RB Breece Hall has been outstanding but much of his success has been game-script dependent with the Jets holding sizable leads most of the way in each of the last two games. Prior to two weeks ago against Miami, New York had topped out at 98 rushing yards in a game this season. The Broncos, while clearly struggling, do still have at least a couple of redeeming qualities. Their defense remains stout. You don't hold the Chargers offense to 73 rushing yards and 224 passing yards (on 57 pass attempts) by fluke. Patrick Surtain would get my vote as the best cornerback in the NFL. Brandon Browning has been a massive find as a pass rusher on the outside. While it could certainly use some help from the offense, this is a defense capable of winning this game all on its own (note that the Broncos manhandled the Jets by a 26-0 score here in Denver in last year's meeting). While QB Russell Wilson hasn't been good by any stretch of the imagination, the Broncos play-calling has left a lot to be desired as well. They got way too predictable as the game went on in Los Angeles on Monday. I do think there were lessons to be gleaned from that narrow defeat and we'll see Denver employ a more aggressive offensive gameplan against a beatable Jets defense here. New York is certainly 'feeling itself' off last week's statement win in Green Bay (if you watched rookie Sauce Gardner's postgame interview you know what I mean). However, with young teams sometimes the highs are a little too high and I expect it to be brought back to Earth on Sunday. Here, we'll note that the Jets are a woeful 4-15 ATS in their last 19 road games following three consecutive victories, outscored by 8.7 points on average in that spot. Meanwhile, the Broncos check in 28-12 the last 40 times they've played at home off a road loss against a division opponent, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 7.9 points in that situation. Take Denver (10*). |
|||||||
10-23-22 | Falcons v. Bengals OVER 47 | Top | 17-35 | Win | 100 | 51 h 4 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Cincinnati at 1 pm et on Sunday. This play sets up beautifully after so many bettors were left hanging with the 'over' in the Falcons 28-14 win over the 49ers last week. I can understand why those same bettors might be a little gun shy when it comes to playing the 'over' again here. Note that the 'under' has actually cashed in each of Atlanta's last three contests. With that being said, the Falcons led most of the way in two of those games while a very limited Buccaneers offense took its foot off the gas after jumping ahead 21-0 in the other. I mention that the Falcons led most of the way in two of those games as they were able to take their preferred course of action, taking the air out of the football and effectively shortening those contests. Here, I'm confident we'll see a much different game script as Atlanta projects to trail as a near-touchdown underdog against an improving Bengals offense. Let's get it straight, the Falcons defense isn't particularly good. Opponents have been bombing away on them with opposing quarterbacks facing little to no pressure in the pocket. Atlanta has yet to limit a single opponent to fewer than 226 passing yards this season. The Bengals are certainly comfortable following a similar gameplan, noting that they've attempted 32+ passes in all six games to date. We've also seen Cincinnati put up 27+ points in three of its last four games with the lone exception coming in a primetime division game in Baltimore two weeks ago. The Falcons offense doesn't get better after losing CB Casey Hayward to a shoulder injury. The good news for the Falcons is, the potential is there for them to stay competitive in this game due to a number of key injuries on the Bengals defense. DT D.J. Reader - one of Cincinnati's best run stoppers - remains sidelined. His backup Josh Tupuo is now out as well. Note that the Bengals have been torched for 155 and 228 rush yards over their last two games, which certainly plays into the hands of the run-happy Falcons here. Perhaps most importantly, LB Logan Wilson is nursing a shoulder injury. Should he miss that would really open things up for Atlanta TE Kyle Pitts, who has been a disappointment to this point, but draws a very favorable matchup against a Cincinnati defense that hasn't been able to contain opposing tight ends all season. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
10-23-22 | Browns v. Ravens OVER 45.5 | Top | 20-23 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 55 m | Show |
AFC North Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Baltimore at 1 pm et on Sunday. We got the injury news we wanted on Friday as tight end Mark Andrews returned to practice for the Ravens while cornerback Denzel Ward was ruled out for the Browns. Of course, Cleveland's defense has been a disaster this season, in the conversation as one of the worst defensive units in the entire league. Myles Garrett did return against the Patriots last week and contributed three tackles and two sacks but he re-aggravated his shoulder injury badly enough that he needed an MRI earlier this week. It sounds like he'll be on the field for the Browns on Sunday but whether he's 100% healthy is certainly up for debate. The Ravens are a team built for shootouts with a quick-strike offense but a defense that has plenty of holes. With that being said, they're coming off three consecutive 'under' results. That's had a lot to do with QB Lamar Jackson's inability to connect on his deep throws over the last few games. I think we do see him clean that up this week, noting that the Ravens could have field-stretcher Rashod Bateman back from injury. Regardless whether Bateman plays or not, the Ravens receivers, and Andrews, can win matchups all over the field. On the flip side, the Browns running game should feast on a Ravens defense that has been fairly soft against opposing ground attacks, yielding 4.5 yards per rush. While Cleveland QB Jacoby Brissett has been a 'game manager' throughout his career, he's at least been consistent this season, completing 21 or 22 passes in five straight games. The Ravens haven't given up a lot through the air over their last couple of games but that's only because the opposition has elected to gash them on the ground, as Cleveland is likely to do here. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
10-22-22 | Thunder +7.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 117-122 | Win | 100 | 14 h 15 m | Show |
Northwest Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Oklahoma City plus the points over Denver at 9:10 pm et on Saturday. While the Nuggets were busy upsetting the Warriors in San Francisco last night, the Thunder have been idle since opening the season with a narrow loss in Minnesota on Wednesday. Nothing that Oklahoma City is 13-2 ATS in its last 15 games following an ATS win but SU loss on the road, we'll confidently back it here. While the Thunder lost their opener, I did like the fact that they managed to push the pace and get off 99 field goal attempts. On the flip side, they held what looks like an explosive T'Wolves offense to only 39 made field goals on 94 attempts. Going back to the preseason, the Thunder have yet to allow an opponent knock down more than 41 field goals in five games against NBA competition (they played two preseason games against non-NBA foes). As for the Nuggets, they're off to a 1-1 start to the campaign, yielding 42 made field goals in each contest despite limiting both of their opponents to 88 or fewer FG attempts. Nothing came easy for the Nuggets in this series last season as they only managed a 2-2 split with their two wins coming by a combined 10 points. Take Oklahoma City (10*). |
|||||||
10-22-22 | UCLA v. Oregon OVER 69.5 | Top | 30-45 | Win | 100 | 95 h 28 m | Show |
Pac-12 Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between UCLA and Oregon at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. I really like the way this one sets up as a high-scoring affair between the Bruins and Ducks on Saturday afternoon. This is about as close to the high-flying Oregon teams of the past that we've seen in recent years. The Ducks are scoring at will. They most recently had one stretch where they scored three touchdowns in 14 minutes and then another where they hung four touchdowns on the board in 11 minutes - in the same game - against Arizona. The week previous they scored three touchdowns in the final four-and-a-half minutes of the first half against Stanford. While UCLA is certainly a better defensive team than both of those opponents, it's not as if the Bruins are the '85 Bears. The last time we saw UCLA it prevailed in a wild 42-32 game against Utah. That was a day where the Utes clearly weren't at the top of their game offensively, yet they still managed to eclipse 30 points. There was probably some reason for concern with this Bruins defense earlier in the season when we saw it allow South Alabama to put together four scoring drives in an 18-minute stretch in the first half of a 32-31 UCLA victory. The good news for the Bruins is that they have an explosive offense of their own. QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson is one of the more underrated players in college football in my opinion, as is RB Zach Charbonnet, who has seemingly been getting stronger with each passing game. Noting that the 'over' is now 10-1 in UCLA's last 11 games after committing one or fewer turnovers in its previous game and a perfect 6-0 in Oregon's last six home games following a win, I'll call for nothing short of a shootout on Saturday. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
10-22-22 | Rice v. Louisiana Tech +3.5 | Top | 42-41 | Win | 100 | 96 h 3 m | Show |
C-USA Game of the Year. My selection is on Louisiana Tech plus the points over Rice at 3 pm et on Saturday. Joe Aillet Stadium in Ruston, Louisiana has traditionally been a house of horrors for visiting teams. Rice knows that as it has dropped four straight trips here, never coming within fewer than 15 points of the Bulldogs over that stretch. While this year's Owls squad has held its own, and then some, reeling off five consecutive ATS wins entering Saturday's contest, I look for it to fall short here. Last week, Rice could only muster 14 points in a field goal loss on the road against a very average Florida Atlantic defense. The Owls offense has certainly shown some regression as the schedule has toughened up - their two highest-scoring games of the season to date came back in Weeks 2 and 3 against the likes of FCS squad McNeese State and Louisiana-Lafayette. For Louisiana Tech, this is obviously a big game in terms of its potential Bowl hopes as it enters with just two victories and looking ahead at the schedule, will have only a few more legitimate opportunities to pick up wins and approach that six-victory mark. There have been positives to take away from the Bulldogs 2-4 start to the campaign. Back in mid-September Louisiana Tech travelled to Death Valley to face Clemson and stuck around for the entire first half, trailing just 13-6. Clemson took over in the third quarter but the Bulldogs again showed plenty of fight in the fourth quarter, scoring a pair of touchdowns to close the gap to 14 points before giving up a couple of scores late. Even last week at North Texas, Louisiana Tech fell behind 21-3 early but rallied to close the gap to a single touchdown entering the fourth quarter. My point being, there have been times where the Bulldogs could have folded the tent but instead reached down and showed some resiliency. I'm not convinced they'll have to be all that resilient in this particular matchup as I believe they can control proceedings. While the Bulldogs have been gashed by opposing ground games, I'm not sure that Rice has the backfield to take full advantage. Note that the Owls check in averaging just 127 rush yards per game on 3.7 yards per rush. Rice has had a tendency to look gassed following games I would term 'defensive slugfests', noting that it has gone a woeful 1-10 ATS in its last 11 contests following a game in which both teams scored 17 points or less, as is the case here, outscored by a whopping margin of 22.0 points on average in that situation. From October on, Louisiana Tech has outscored opponents by an average margin of 9.4 points in its last 69 games played here in Ruston. While the Bulldogs have had a tough run going back to last season, they've yet to suffer consecutive ATS losses this season and have been outscored by a minuscule 0.4 points on average when coming off an ATS defeat since the start of last season (nine-game sample size). Take Louisiana Tech (10*). |
|||||||
10-21-22 | Red Wings v. Blackhawks UNDER 6.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 3 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Chicago at 8:35 pm et on Friday. Both of these teams are coming off high-scoring games but I'm not all that high on either side offensively and expect a lower-scoring affair when they match up on Friday night in Chicago. Since opening the season with a 3-0 blanking of Montreal, Detroit has seen its last two contests total seven and nine goals. That's notable as the 'under' has gone 8-1 the last nine times the Red Wings have played on the road following a game that totalled nine goals or more, resulting in an average total of just 4.1 goals. The Blackhawks nearly tripled their offensive output through their first two games with a 5-2 victory in San Jose - that was last Saturday. They've been idle since. They had scored just two goals through their first two contests this season. Here, we'll note that the 'under' has gone 10-4 the last 14 times Chicago has come off a game in which it scored five or more goals. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
10-21-22 | Bulls v. Wizards +1 | Top | 100-102 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Washington minus the points over Chicago at 7:10 pm et on Friday. I have the Wizards pegged as a potential surprise team in the Eastern Conference this season and I like the way this spot sets up for them in their home-opener against the Bulls on Friday. Chicago pulled off a stunner in its season-opener two nights ago, leading most of the way in a 116-108 win over the Heat in Miami. We won with the 'over' in that contest, noting that the Bulls had a fantastic preseason from an offensive standpoint but also some warts to deal with at the defensive end of the floor. Surprisingly, Chicago was able to contain Miami's offense to the tune of just 80 field goal attempts. Yet the Heat still put up 108 points. Keep in mind, during its preseason slate, Chicago yielded its four opponents 93, 88, 96 and 92 FG attempts. We know the Wizards can push the pace, noting that they got off 92 FG attempts in their 114-107 win in Indiana two nights ago. I like Washington's depth a whole lot more than I do Chicago's. The Bulls needed DeMar Derozan's heroics to pull out the victory in Miami. Here, I'm not convinced his scoring exploits will be enough. Take Washington (10*). |
|||||||
10-21-22 | Ottawa v. Hamilton -6 | Top | 27-30 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 20 m | Show |
CFL Game of the Week. My selection is on Hamilton minus the points over Ottawa at 7 pm et on Friday. We successfully faded the RedBlacks last week but needed a late Alouettes go-ahead score to get there. I expect this week's contest to be a little more straight-forward as Ottawa makes the trip to Hamilton to take on the Tiger-Cats. Note that this will be the second meeting between these two teams this season after Hamilton escaped with a 25-23 victory back in mid-July. It's worth noting that the RedBlacks didn't commit a single penalty in that game and won the turnover battle 4-2 yet still lost. Banged-up and simply playing out the string at this point, I don't expect Ottawa to pick itself up off the mat following last week's loss. The Ti-Cats check in playing some of their best football in an otherwise disappointing season, reeling off consecutive wins over Saskatchewan and Calgary. With Ottawa going completely one-dimensional on offense (it has run the football 21 or fewer times in five straight games), I expect the Ti-Cats defense to feast in this one. Note that the RedBlacks are a woeful 16-30 ATS the last 46 times they've come off a high-scoring game that totalled 60+ points, as is the case here, while the Ti-Cats are 7-4 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite of a touchdown or less. Take Hamilton (10*). |
|||||||
10-20-22 | Hurricanes v. Oilers -110 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Edmonton over Carolina at 9:05 pm et on Thursday. I really like the way this spot sets up for the Oilers, who will be looking to avenge a pair of losses against the Hurricanes last season (in which they scored just two goals). Edmonton opened the campaign with a 5-3 win over the Canucks (which perhaps doesn't look as impressive given how poorly Vancouver has played). Since then, the Oilers have dropped consecutive home games against Calgary and Buffalo with the latter coming in embarrassing fashion two nights ago. Carolina is off to a perfect 3-0 start including consecutive wins to open its current five-game road trip. Here, we'll note that the Canes have gone a poor 42-74 the last 116 times they've played on the road following three straight victories. Meanwhile, the Oilers have outscored opponents by an average margin of 0.9 goals when playing at home after losing two of their last three games going back to the start of last season (22-game sample size). Take Edmonton (10*). |
|||||||
10-20-22 | Saints v. Cardinals UNDER 44 | Top | 34-42 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
TNF Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New Orleans and Arizona at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. We've seen plenty of stinkers in primetime action this season and it's hard to envision anything other than another relatively uneventful affair between the Saints and Cardinals on Thursday. It sounds like the Saints will give the keys to QB Andy Dalton for at least one more game, although there is an outside chance that Jameis Winston returns for this game. I'm not sure it really matters right now. While the Saints have seen each of their last three games go 'over' the total since Dalton took over for an injured Winston, it's had little to do with the 'Red Rocket' as they've actually seen their passing yardage regress over those three contests (19-of-36 passing for 171 yards last week). New Orleans' offensive line is banged-up and outside of standout rookie WR Chris Olave, there are few dynamic options in the receiving corps. QB Alvin Kamara remains the focal point of the offense and while he's played well, he's not the gamebreaker he once was and his ceiling is somewhat limited by the presence of Dalton, not to mention the Saints poor run and pass blocking. The Cardinals have quietly snuffed out opposing passing games this season, not allowing any opponent to throw for more than 244 yards since Week 1 against the Chiefs. Arizona will get WR DeAndre Hopkins back from suspension on Thursday and while he could make an immediate impact, he lands in a struggling Cardinals offense. Arizona's offensive line is dealing with injuries, leading to QB Kyler Murray running for his life a lot of the time. I'm confident in the Saints ability to contain Murray here. New Orleans QB Marshon Lattimore remains sidelined although his backup, Bradley Roby has held up alright, allowing 16 catches on 35 targets this season. The Cards have yet to throw for 300 yards this season and that's despite one game where they completed 37-of-58 passes against the Rams (they scored only 12 points in that contest). This has all the makings of another primetime game played close to the vest with both sides looking to run the football and effectively shorten proceedings. Note that the 'under' is a staggering 14-3 in the Saints last 17 Thursday games and 22-9 in the Cardinals last 31 contests at home following a double-digit loss against a division opponent. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
10-20-22 | Virginia v. Georgia Tech UNDER 47.5 | Top | 16-9 | Win | 100 | 56 h 29 m | Show |
AAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Virginia and Georgia Tech at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. Last year, these two teams were involved in a wild shootout that went Virginia's way by a 48-40 score. That game saw a closing total of 65.5 points so a high-scoring affair was to be expected. How things have changed for both teams. Virginia was involved in plenty of shootouts last year with an electric offense and a defense that couldn't get many stops at all. The script has flipped this year. The Cavaliers offense continues to struggle in pass and run blocking, and generally appears broken. They've topped out at 34 points and that performance came way back in Week 1 against an FCS opponent in Richmond. In fact, that's the last time the Cavaliers eclipsed the 20-point mark. Teams have been able to run on Georgia Tech but Virginia doesn't seem to have anyone capable of taking the lead out of the backfield, and as I mentioned its offensive line hasn't helped matters, struggling mightily in run-blocking. Georgia Tech has turned things around following a 1-3 start, posting back-to-back conference wins over Pittsburgh and Duke. While QB Jeff Sims might be the Yellow Jackets best offensive player, he's really their only true threat. WR Malachi Carter has dealt with an injury and when he has played, hasn't looked quite right. One thing we know is that the Yellow Jackets want to run the football, racking up 30+ rush attempts in all six games so far this season. The gameplan has been to keep drives (and the clock) moving, effectively shortening the game and leaving the heavy lifting to the defense. That defense has certainly had a 'bend but don't break' type of philosophy, giving up yardage on the ground but doing a nice job of snuffing out opposing aerial attacks. Only one opponent has thrown for 300+ yards on them and that was Pitt (it needed 45 pass attempts to get to 305 yards and scored 'only' 21 points in the game). Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 19-4 the last 23 times Virginia has come off a game in which it ran for 40 or fewer yards, as is the case here, leading to an average total of just 40.8 points in that spot. The idea is that the Cavaliers generally look to run the football after games where they're unable to do so. Note also that the 'under' is a long-term 53-29 with Georgia Tech coming off consecutive victories, which is also the situation here. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
10-20-22 | Bucks v. 76ers UNDER 225.5 | Top | 90-88 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and Philadelphia at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. I really like the way this one sets up as a lower-scoring game than most are expecting on Thursday night in Philadelphia. The Bucks went winless in five preseason games. No big surprise as wins and losses mean little during the preseason, especially for perennial contenders like the Bucks. That being said, what does have some carry-over effect from the preseason to the regular season is pace and efficiency at both ends of the floor. Milwaukee made good on 37, 41, 33, 37 and 34 field goals in its five exhibition contests. It got off more than 86 field goal attempts just twice in those five games, and scored 'only' 103 and 113 points in those two contests. While I do think Milwaukee can 'flip the switch' from a defensive standpoint and step up the intensity against an opponent that will certainly draw its intensity, I'm not sure we see the Bucks offense come roaring out of the gates. Philadelphia will obviously be in a foul mood after dropping its season-opener in Boston two nights ago. The 76ers allowed a whopping 126 points in that defeat although the pace didn't necessarily dictate such a high-scoring result. Note that Boston actually got off only 82 FG attempts. Both teams simply shot the lights out in that contest, as Philadelphia contibuted 40-of-80 shooting. Here, we'll note that the 'under' has cashed five of the last seven times the 76ers have come off a road loss against a division opponent while the 'under' has also gone a profitable 44-39 the last 83 times Philadelphia has come off an 'over' result. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
10-19-22 | Blazers v. Kings -1.5 | Top | 115-108 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 57 m | Show |
Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Sacramento minus the points over Portland at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. It may surprise you to find out that the Kings actually finished with a better record than the Blazers last season and were considerably stronger against the Western Conference. While Sacramento only held a three-game advantage over Portland overall, it was nine games better against the West. While I don't put a lot of stock in preseason results, there are exceptions to that rule. The Kings went a perfect 4-0 during their exhibition schedule, making good on 42, 45, 36 and 46 field goals in those four contests. The outlier was a game in Phoenix where they shot 41% from the field but still pulled out a one-point victory. On the flip side, the Kings did a tremendous job of limiting their opponents' scoring opportunities, something we're certainly not used to seeing when it comes to this franchise. Only one of their four preseason opponents got off 80+ field goal attempts and that was the Lakers in a game where they scored only 86 points on 29-of-81 shooting. There are a lot of mouths to feed when it comes to the Blazers offense, especially with the addition of Jerami Grant from the Pistons. Portland went winless against NBA opposition during the preseason (it did post a victory over Maccabi Ra'anana) and it wasn't pretty as it knocked down just 31, 36, 29 and 32 field goals, with the low-water mark coming in a 126-94 loss to the Kings. It's not as if Portland sent its 'B' squad to the court in that game against Sacramento either. Its starting five consisted of Nurkic, Grant, Simons, Lillard and Hart - likely the same lineup we'll see tonight. All five played 22+ minutes in that game against Sacramento. Maybe the Blazers 'flip the switch' on Wednesday but I'm not betting on it. Take Sacramento (10*). |
|||||||
10-18-22 | Kings v. Predators -147 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -147 | 15 h 10 m | Show |
Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Nashville over Los Angeles at 9:35 pm et on Tuesday. The Kings have secured consecutive wins to open their current road trip, including a wild 5-4 overtime victory last night in Detroit. The Predators opened the season with a pair of wins over the Sharks in Prague but have suffered a hangover of sorts since returning, dropping both games in a home-and-home series against the Stars. After a couple of days off, I look for the Preds to bounce back here, noting that they've gone an incredible 10-2 when coming off consecutive losses by 2+ goals over the last 2+ seasons, outscoring opponents by 1.4 goals on average in that spot. Nashville took the first two meetings between these two teams last season before letting its guard down and dropping a lopsided 6-1 decision in Los Angeles in late March. The Kings haven't recorded a victory in Nashville since back in 2016. Take Nashville (10*). |
|||||||
10-18-22 | 76ers v. Celtics -2 | Top | 117-126 | Win | 100 | 34 h 50 m | Show |
Atlantic Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Boston minus the points over Philadelphia at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. I'm higher on the Celtics than some entering the new season and I like their chances of picking up a statement win against a division rival in Tuesday's home opener. While Boston's big offseason acquisition Danilo Gallinari is now sidelined for the season, the cupboard is still well-stocked. Robert Williams is also injured but there's depth at the power forward position with veteran Al Horford and Grant Williams, who showed some positive signs during the preseason. I also like the bench duo of Payton Pritchard and Derrick White to make big strides this season. The 76ers went undefeated in four preseason games so the argument could be made that they're already in midseason form. I don't put a ton of stock in NBA preseason wins and losses though. I'm simply not as high on the 76ers depth as I am on the Celtics. Here, we'll note that Philadelphia has been outscored by an average margin of 6.1 points as a road underdog going back to the start of last season (20-game sample size). Take Boston (10*). |
|||||||
10-16-22 | Cowboys v. Eagles -6 | Top | 17-26 | Win | 100 | 36 h 36 m | Show |
SNF Game of the Year. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Dallas at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. We won with the Cowboys last Sunday as they pulled off another upset win, this time on the road against the defending Super Bowl champion Rams, but I won't hesitate to go the other way and fade Dallas as it plays on the road for a second straight week. QB Cooper Rush has been terrific in a 'game manager' role over the last four games, but game script has certainly favored the Cowboys as they've led most of the way in those contests. I expect a different story to unfold in Philadelphia on Sunday night as Rush is asked to do a little too much and upending the undefeated Eagles proves to be a bridge too far for the Cowboys. I came close to fading the Eagles last Sunday in Arizona as I absolutely hated the spot for Philadelphia, travelling across the country to face a Cardinals squad that would be easy to overlook. Right on cue, the Cards gave the Eagles all they could handle, ultimately missing a late field goal that would have tied the game. Here, I look for the Eagles to refocus and benefit from getting virtually their entire offensive line back healthy after being undermanned in that department last week. This really is an 'anything you can do, I can do better' type of matchup for the Eagles against a Cowboys squad that has admittedly played well. While Dallas would certainly like to effectively shorten this game by churning out long, clock-eating drives on offense, the Eagles defense is capable of snuffing out the run while also locking down the Cowboys receivers. I'm not convinced the Cowboys will be able to orchestrate enough of those long drives to keep its defense fresh against a multi-dimensional Eagles offense here. You can be sure Philadelphia hasn't forgotten about last season, when it got drilled in both matchups against Dallas, allowing 40+ points in each game. Look for the Eagles to get their payback here. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
|||||||
10-16-22 | Cowboys v. Eagles UNDER 42.5 | Top | 17-26 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 19 m | Show |
NFC East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Philadelphia at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. Last season's two meetings between these NFC East rivals were wild, high-scoring affairs in favor of the Cowboys but I look for a much different story to unfold on Sunday night in Philadelphia. With QB Cooper Rush in line to start for at least one more game, we know what we're going to get from the Cowboys at this point. They'll keep Rush in a 'game-managing' role as they look to leave proceedings in the hands of their very capable defense. On the flip side, Philadelphia has been somewhat 'feast-or-famine' on offense, scoring points in bunches but also going extended stretches without hitting paydirt. The Eagles are expected to be back at full strength on their offensive line and that should equate to plenty of long, clock-churning drives against a Cowboys defense that will look to 'bend but not break', keeping everything - and most importantly dual-threat QB Jalen Hurts - in front of them on Sunday night. Note that the 'under' is 28-14 the last 42 times the Cowboys have played on the road following three consecutive victories, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 40.8 points. The Eagles have seen the 'under' go 17-12 in their last 29 games against NFC opponents. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
10-16-22 | Jaguars +2.5 v. Colts | Top | 27-34 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 1 m | Show |
AFC South Game of the Year. My selection is on Jacksonville plus the points over Indianapolis at 1 pm et on Sunday. As I mentioned last week, making the decision to bet for or against the Jaguars when they play at home isn't rocket science. You back them when they host the Colts and fade them against everyone else. That strategy worked to perfection once again last Sunday as they fell as a considerable favorite at home against the Texans. Here, we find the Jags back on the road, where they're just 1-2 so far this season but their two losses were competitive affairs against the Commanders and still-undefeated Eagles. Of course, the Jags already have a win over these Colts to their credit. We successfully backed Jacksonville in its 24-0 stomping of Indy back in Week 2. In fact, we've been involved in all five Colts games this season in some shape or form, including two of the last three weeks when we successfully backed them in upset wins over the Chiefs and Broncos. I won't hesitate to go the other way this week, however, as they return home in a favored role against division-rival Jacksonville. Indy's offense remains broken. QB Matt Ryan has shown no ability whatsoever to push the ball down the field, wasting the talent of WR Michael Pittman in the process. While RB Jonathan Taylor is expected to return this week, I'm not convinced he'll be able to find any running room behind an offensive line that has struggled mightily to both run and pass block. The Jags defense has held up as well as anyone could have expected so far this season. Even two weeks ago when their offense turned the football over a whopping five times in the rain in Philadelphia, they still 'only' allowed 29 points against a high-powered Eagles offense. Last week's loss certainly can't be pinned on the defense as the Jags offense simply couldn't get anything going against the Texans. There are going to be some growing pains like that over the course of the season for this offense but I expect it to bounce back on Sunday. The Colts defense was made to look good against a punchless Broncos offense last week. I don't believe it will be so fortunate here as Jags QB Trevor Lawrence looked incredibly comfortable against this unit back in Week 2, picking it apart for 25-of-30 passing for 235 yards. Even last year, when the Jags were an absolute mess, they still managed to stay within six points of the Colts as a double-digit underdog here in Indy. I believe the case can be made for the wrong team being favored here. Take Jacksonville (10*). |
|||||||
10-15-22 | Mississippi State v. Kentucky UNDER 49 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 33 h 50 m | Show |
SEC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Mississippi State and Kentucky at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. Mississippi State has seen three straight games go 'over' the total (based on closing numbers - we played the 'under' early in the week prior to its game against Arkansas last week before the total moved seven points) but I look for a different story to unfold on Saturday in Lexington. Note that the Bulldogs have forced seven turnovers while turning the football over just once themselves over the last three games - a big reason they racked up 45, 42 and 40 points over those three contests, all victories, also notably all at home. In two previous road games this season we've seen Mississippi State hang 40+ points on a bad Arizona defense and score just 16 points the next week at LSU. Here, the Bulldogs will face a tough challenge against a Kentucky squad that has held all six opponents to 24 points or less this season. The Wildcats are expected to have QB Will Levis back for Saturday's game and most expect the offense to immediately take off after scoring just 14 points in a disappointing home loss against South Carolina last week. I'm not so easily convinced. Remember, just two games back, with Levis on the field, Kentucky scored just 19 points in a loss to Ole Miss. While Mississippi State is known for its high-powered offense, its defense has been outstanding as well. Case in point, last week it didn't allow a touchdown against Arkansas until it was already ahead 21-3 with less than two minutes remaining in the first half. It has topped out at 276 passing yards allowed this season and that came in a game where Arizona attempted 54 passes and scored just 17 points. While last year's matchup between these two teams did go 'over' the total, it also featured a lower total than we're working with here. You would have to go back five meetings in the series to find the last time the two teams combined to score more than 48 points. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
10-15-22 | Oklahoma State v. TCU UNDER 69.5 | Top | 40-43 | Loss | -115 | 97 h 1 m | Show |
Big 12 Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Oklahoma State and TCU at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. I really like the way this one sets up as a lower-scoring affair than most are expecting on Saturday afternoon in Fort Worth. This is obviously a massive Big 12 showdown as both teams enter sporting perfect 5-0 records. Oklahoma State is coming off consecutive wild, high-scoring wins over Baylor and Texas Tech to open its Big 12 schedule. Meanwhile, TCU won (and covered) in thrilling fashion on the road against previously undefeated Kansas last Saturday, scoring at least 38 points for the fifth straight time to open the campaign. I believe both teams will be facing their toughest defensive test of the season on Saturday. Note that game script has been a big factor in the Cowboys last two high-scoring results. Last week against Texas Tech, two early touchdown scores (one by each team) in the game's first four minutes ultimately led to a back-and-forth shootout. Keep in mind, after giving up a Texas Tech touchdown just under three minutes into the second quarter, the Cowboys held the Red Raiders out of the end zone with the exception of one score around midway through the third quarter. Two weeks ago against Baylor, Oklahoma State jumped ahead 23-3 and didn't yield a Bears touchdown until nearly three minutes into the second half. Meanwhile, TCU gave up two touchdowns in the first 17 minutes against Oklahoma two weeks ago but then didn't allow another touchdown score until the outcome had long been decided, up 55-17 just shy of four minutes into the fourth quarter. Last week, the Horned Frogs didn't allow a Kansas touchdown until just over two minutes into the second half. Things went a bit sideways from there as TCU was geared toward facing dual-threat QB Jaylon Daniels but after he suffered an injury, Jake Bean took over the Jayhawks offense and bombed away. After Oklahoma State won last year's matchup between these two teams by a 63-17 score, you can be sure that TCU has little interest in getting involved in a shootout here, regardless how much confidence it has in QB Max Duggan. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 9-1 in the Cowboys last 10 games when playing on the road off a home win but non-cover as a favorite, resulting in an average total of just 46.4 points in that situation. Meanwhile, the Horned Frogs have seen the 'under' cash in four of their last five games following consecutive contests in which 60+ points were scored, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
10-14-22 | Navy v. SMU UNDER 57.5 | Top | 34-40 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
AAC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Navy and Houston at 7:30 pm et on Friday. While five of the last seven meetings in this series have gone 'over' the total, two of the last three matchups have stayed 'under' including last year's 31-24 SMU victory. Navy exploded for 53 points in last week's blowout win over Tulsa but there's little chance we see it repeat that performance here. The Midshipmen benefited from four Golden Hurricane turnovers in that contest. It's worth noting that prior to that game, Navy had been held to 23 points or less in each of its first four contests this season, including 13 or less in three of those games. If the Midshipmen are going to keep this one competitive on Friday, they're going to need to come up with another strong defensive performance. Note that they've actually held up well on that side of the football this season and particularly of late. Navy enters this contest having yielded just six offensive touchdowns over their last 12 quarters of action. SMU isn't one-dimensional on offense by any means, but it hasn't exactly been setting the world on fire with its ground attack. The Mustangs have attempted 49+ passes in three straight games but that's had more to do with game script than anything else as they've either been trailing or involved in tightly-contested affairs. As a double-digit favorite here, the potential is there for them to lean a little more heavily on their running game to take some of the load off of QB Tanner Mordecai, who has thrown just five touchdowns to go along with five interceptions over the last three games. Navy's gameplan will obviously involve effectively shortening this game but churning out long, time-consuming drives with its triple-option offense. Despite gaining just 177 rushing yards on 53 attempts in last year's meeting, the Midshipmen still won the time of possession battle, holding onto the football for 32+ minutes. It's also worth noting that they 'only' allowed 31 points despite SMU completing 30-of-40 passes for 324 yards. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 4-1 in Navy's last five games following an outright underdog victory, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' has cashed four of the last six times SMU has come off consecutive games totalling 60+ points, which is also the situation here. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
10-14-22 | Montreal -3.5 v. Ottawa | Top | 34-30 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
East Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Montreal minus the points over Ottawa at 7 pm et on Friday. The RedBlacks sold out to stop the run and ultimately pulled off a 24-18 upset victory in Montreal on Monday afternoon (we won with the 'under' in that game). Now it's the Als turn to make the necessary adjustments and get back in the win column with a quick rematch on Friday night in Ottawa. I like their chances of doing just that against a banged-up RedBlacks squad. Ottawa will be without WRs Jaylon Acklin and DeVonte Dedmon after both contributed to Monday's victory in Montreal. That's not the worst news as it will also be missing a pair of key defenders in Patrick Levels and Praise Martin-Oguike. Montreal will obviously have a chip on its shoulder entering this game having dropped two straight meetings against Ottawa. Remember, the Als lost a 38-24 decision at home against the RedBlacks in early September as well. They had no answer for the aforementioned Acklin in that contest as he went off for seven catches and 159 yards. While Ottawa QB Nick Arbuckle has been efficient in those last two matchups against Montreal, he's been more of a 'game manager' than anything else, throwing for 542 yards but just one touchdown. I don't think there's any intimidation factor at play here as Montreal won the lone previous matchup between these two teams in Ottawa by a 40-33 score back in July. Look for the Als to bounce back on Friday. Take Montreal (10*). |
|||||||
10-14-22 | Guardians v. Yankees OVER 6 | Top | 4-2 | Push | 0 | 23 h 18 m | Show |
ALDS Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and New York at 1:05 pm et on Friday. PLEASE NOTE: This is the same play that we originally had when the game was scheduled for Thursday night. We missed with the 'over' in Game 1 of this series on Tuesday. I won't hesitate to come right back with the same play on Friday, however, as we work with an even lower posted total. Nestor Cortes has enjoyed a tremendous campaign. He hasn't pitched since October 1st though - nearly two weeks ago - and I can't help but feel there's nowhere to go but down after he allowed just one hit in each of his last two outings, and having not allowed a single home run over his last five starts. Note that the Guardians will be seeing Cortes for the third time this season. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 21-12 with Cleveland seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent where it scored one run or less this season, with that situation producing an average total of 9.3 runs. The Guardians will hand the ball to their ace Shane Bieber after he was lights out in his lone Wild Card round start against the Rays last week. While Bieber's numbers are tremendous, I feel like every time I watch him pitch, he's laboring. I just don't find anything seems to come all that easy for the admittedly 'elite' right-hander. The Yankees will obviously make opposing pitchers work for everything. They average 5.1 runs per game against right-handed starting pitching and 5.2 rpg at home this season. Interestingly, the 'over' is a perfect 4-0 with Bieber starting in an underdog role priced between +125 and +175 this season, as is the case here. The 'over' is also 4-1 in Yankees home games where the total is set at 6.0 or 6.5 this season. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
10-13-22 | Washington Commanders v. Bears | Top | 12-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
NFC Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Washington over Chicago at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. The Commanders have fallen on hard times, dropping four straight games since opening the season with a 28-22 win over the Jaguars. They've also faced a tough slate, however, starting with a trip to Detroit to face what was a full-strength Lions team at the time followed by a home game against the still-undefeated Eagles, a road game against a better than expected Cowboys team and finally a home date against an improving Titans squad. Here, Washington catches a break as it faces Chicago on a short week, with the Bears coming off an emotionally and physically draining 29-22 division loss against the Vikings on Sunday. The Bears do check in a perfect 2-0 at home this season but those victories came in a monsoon against the 49ers in Week 1 and over a then-winless Texans squad in Week 3. Here, they'll host a Commanders squad that checks in a perfect 4-0 ATS the last four times it has come off four consecutive losses and a perfect 2-0 ATS the last two times it has come off three straight games in which it scored 17 or fewer points, as is the case here. I don't like the regression we've seen from the Bears defense in recent weeks. They've been getting gashed by opposing running games and that's an area I feel the Commanders can exploit as well. Chicago has already allowed three of its five opponents to rack up 175+ rushing yards this season. Offensively, Bears QB Justin Fields is coming off one of the best games of his young career but I question whether he can follow it up here, noting that they had a considerable advantage against a weak Vikings defense that doesn't stop the run and didn't really have anyone that could match up against Chicago's lone true receiving threat in Darnell Mooney. Washington has quietly played well defensively after a tough start to the campaign. It has held its last three opponents to just 2.6 yards per rush. The only opponent to throw for more than 260 yards against the Commanders this season was Jalen Hurts and the Eagles. Over the last two games, Washington has held the opposition to just 30-of-52 passing for 353 yards. While it's true those two games came against Cooper Rush and Ryan Tannehill, Justin Fields is generally only asked to be a 'game manager' as well. Note that the Bears are just 5-10 ATS in their last 15 games following an ATS victory, which is the situation here. They're also 2-5 ATS in their last seven contests following a loss against a division opponent. We'll plug our noses and back the Commanders here, noting that there's an outside chance we could see Ron Rivera finally lift QB Carson Wentz for experienced backup Taylor Heineke should Wentz get off to a poor start. That would only work in our favor in my opinion. Take Washington (10*). |
|||||||
10-13-22 | Temple +23.5 v. Central Florida | Top | 13-70 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 58 m | Show |
AAC Game of the Month. My selection is on Temple plus the points over Central Florida at 7 pm et on Thursday. Temple plays about as ugly a brand of football as you'll find but it does succeed ATS, having covered in three of its five games so far this season. Here, I do think the Owls can run a little bit and ultimately move the chains and possess the football long enough to stay inside the pointspread. Temple has dropped each of the last five meetings in this series, failing to defeat UCF since 2016. It would be easy for the Knights to overlook the Owls coming off a big win over SMU and looking ahead to an away showdown against East Carolina next week. While UCF did prevail by a lopsided 41-19 score against a good SMU squad last week, that game ultimately turned on a couple of third quarter Knights touchdowns and from there the Mustangs came unglued trying to rally and UCF extended the winning margin. It wasn't until less than six minutes remaining in the first half before the Knights reached the end zone in that game. Two games back against Georgia Tech, UCF didn't score an offensive touchdown until nearly five minutes into the fourth quarter. Temple has turned the football over 13 times through five games this season yet hasn't given up more than 30 points in a single contest. I do think we'll see the Owls go a little more conservative offensively in this one, simply looking to salvage some confidence from this two-game away set after a three-touchdown loss at Memphis last time out. On the flip side, the Knights might want to scale back dual-threat QB John Rhys Plumlee a little as he has led the team in rushing in all but one of its five games this season and it will certainly need his exploits at full-go down the stretch. Here, we'll note that UCF checks in 1-8 ATS in its last nine games following a victory by 21+ points and 2-10 ATS in its last 12 contests after scoring 37+ points in its previous game. Look for the Knights to 'manage' this game and it ultimately comes at the expense of an ATS victory. Take Temple (10*). |
|||||||
10-12-22 | UL-Lafayette v. Marshall UNDER 47.5 | Top | 23-13 | Win | 100 | 31 h 10 m | Show |
Sun Belt Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Louisiana and Marshall at 7:30 pm et on Wednesday. You've heard the saying that when a coach says he has two capable quarterbacks that really means he has no capable quarterbacks. That might be a bit harsh but I think it rings true with the Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns this season. Ben Wooldridge and Chandler Fields have split time under center with neither showing the ability to take over the reins entirely. I do think the Ragin' Cajuns have a capable enough offense led by RB Chris Smith to at least move the chains with some consistency and churn out some long drives in this midweek affair. I'm just not convinced they can finish a lot of drives with seven's on the board. In fact, Louisiana has scored just one offensive touchdown over its last seven quarters of football and that's despite its last two contests coming against anything but defensive powerhouses in South Alabama and Louisiana-Monroe. Marshall's biggest issue a year ago and ultimately the biggest reason it dropped a 36-21 decision in its matchup against Louisiana was its lack of run defense. It has shown improvement in that regard, however, this season. Only one opponent has gained more than 100 yards on the ground against the Thundering Herd this season and that was Notre Dame, picking up 130 rushing yards but needing 37 attempts to get there. Offensively, Marshall has topped out at 28 points in regulation time in four games (it reached that number twice) since opening the campaign with a 55-3 rout of FCS squad Norfolk State. RB Khalal Laborn has proven to be a big get for the Herd, running for 100+ yards in all five games this season. I do think Marshall will look to manage his workload a little bit moving forward though, noting that he's racked up 30+ carries in two straight and three of his last four games. Louisiana has held opponents to just 3.8 yards per rush this season but did turn in one bad game against the run, that coming against Louisiana-Monroe two contests back. The Warhawks rushing numbers were boosted by one 75-yard run - outside of that they actually gained just 152 yards on their other 38 attempts. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
10-12-22 | Phillies v. Braves -135 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
NLDS Game of the Year. My selection is on Atlanta over Philadelphia at 4:35 pm et on Wednesday. It's not a difficult decision to back the Braves against the red hot Phillies in Game 2 of this NLDS on Wednesday afternoon. Atlanta has one of the most underrated starting pitchers in baseball on the mound in 21-game winner Kyle Wright. While I'm not looking to make a habit of fading Phillies starter Zack Wheeler, I'll make an exception here. The Braves are 18-3 in their last 21 games after losing three of their last four contests, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 1.9 runs on average in that spot. They're also 22-3 as a favorite with Wright starting this season, outscoring the opposition by 2.2 runs on average in that situation. Take Atlanta (10*). |
|||||||
10-12-22 | Blue Jackets v. Hurricanes OVER 6 | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Columbus and Washington at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. PLEASE NOTE: Elvis Merzlikins is a late scratch for the Blue Jackets due to illness. Daniil Tarasov will start in goal in his place. That obviously works in our favor but the total will likely move to 6.5 as a result. I'll stick with the play. I like the way this one sets up as a high-scoring affair as the Blue Jackets head to Raleigh to face the Hurricanes on Wednesday. Columbus made a big splash in the offseason, landing perhaps the biggest free agent prize in Johnny Gaudreau. While there's not a ton of depth up front, I do like the way the Jackets top two lines shape up and feel this is a team that will get involved in plenty of high-scoring affairs this season given the deficiencies at the back-end. Watch for second-year right-winger Yehor Chinakhov, who had a terrific preseason, scoring six goals in seven games. Columbus' defensive corps ranks among the worst in the league while Elvis Merzlikins has never really lived up to expectations between the pipes. The hope was that Merzlikins would serve as an equalizer of sorts last season but he ended up logging a 3.22 GAA and .907 save percentage in 59 games. The Hurricanes don't necessarily get better defensively by adding Brent Burns, but he does give them a lift offensively. Burns contributed three goals and two assists in two preseason contests. Of course, it's the Hurricanes depth up front that is really the envy of the league. Carolina has three forward lines that can threaten to score on every shift - something that just can't be said for most teams. Goaltender Frederik Andersen is coming off a career year but I question whether he can duplicate that performance this season. Note that he allowed four goals on just 31 shots in two preseason appearances. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
10-11-22 | Golden Knights v. Kings OVER 5.5 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 15 h 41 m | Show |
Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Vegas and Los Angeles at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. Neither of these teams did anything to upgrade their situation between the pipes with the Golden Knights forced to go with the duo of Logan Thompson and Laurent Brossoit with Robin Lehner sidelined for the season due to injury and the Kings sticking with veteran Jonathan Quick and backup Cal Petersen. I do think both sides are fairly set offensively, with the Knights adding Phil Kessel in the offseason and the Kings making a big splash with the addition of Kevin Fiala to provide some much-needed scoring punch. The Knights have built out their forward depth to the point that guys like Jonathan Marchessault and William Karlsson now reside on the third line. With three capable scoring lines up front, not to mention a fourth line that includes Arthur Kaliyev, who performed exceptionally well during the preseason, the Kings boast a lot more offensive pop than we've seen in recent years. Last season's four matchups between these two teams totalled 8, 9, 7 and 6 goals and five of the last six meetings here in Los Angeles have gone 'over' the total. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
10-10-22 | Raiders +7 v. Chiefs | Top | 29-30 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
AFC West Game of the Year. My selection is on Las Vegas plus the points over Kansas City at 8:15 pm et on Monday. The Raiders, while coming off a much-needed victory over the Broncos last Sunday, are still watching their season slip away with the prospect of falling a full three games back of the AFC West-leading Chiefs on Monday night. I think there's a better chance of them avoiding that fate than most seem to believe. Here, we get Las Vegas playing with triple-revenge having lost the last three meetings in this series since posting a stunning 40-32 win over the Chiefs at Arrowhead back on October 11, 2020 - almost two years to the day. To me, the Raiders woes aren't all that difficult to fix. They've been settling for far too many field goals rather than touchdowns - case in point, last week against the Broncos they kicked four field goals but still managed to produce 32 points. This is actually a more favorable matchup for the Raiders passing game after going up against one of the best secondaries in football last week. I'm confident that will lead to a couple more touchdown drives. Getting slot WR Hunter Renfrow back certainly helps as well after he thrived in a pair of matchups against the Chiefs last season. The Chiefs are coming off a nationally-televised blowout win over the Buccaneers last Sunday. That was a true 'get-right' spot after suffering a 20-17 loss to the Colts the week previous (we won with Indianapolis in that game). Kansas City dropped the cash in its lone previous home game this season and is now 0-5 ATS in its last five home games when priced as a favorite between 3.5 and 7 points, as is the case here. Interestingly, the Chiefs are also 1-6 ATS the last seven times they've come off a wild, high-scoring game where both teams scored 30+ points, which is also the situation here. The Raiders are 7-5 ATS in their last 12 contests as a road underdog. Take Las Vegas (10*). |
|||||||
10-10-22 | Ottawa v. Montreal UNDER 47.5 | Top | 24-18 | Win | 100 | 4 h 26 m | Show |
East Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Ottawa and Montreal at 1 pm et on Monday. We won with the 'over' in the RedBlacks blowout loss against the Lions last week but I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the 'under' as they stay on the road to face the Alouettes on Canadian Thanksgiving Monday. Ottawa was in an extremely tough spot last week, playing on a short week after a physically-draining affair against the Argos in which they coughed the football up six times and dropped a 45-14 decision. Not surprisingly, we saw Ottawa's defense look tired against the Lions, ultimately giving up 34 points on over 450 total yards of offense. Here, I do look for that Ottawa defense to regain its footing against a limited Alouettes offense that has gone run-heavy in recent weeks. Even two games back, when Montreal made good on 26-of-35 passes for 244 yards, without turning the ball over once, it still only managed to score 23 points in a win over the Tiger-Cats. It's a similar story for the RedBlacks offense. Two games back they completed 33-of-54 passes for a whopping 368 yards but could only muster 15 points in that aforementioned blowout loss against the Argos. In fact, you would have to go back four games to find the last time Ottawa scored more than 19 points in a game and that came in a wild 38-24 win over these same Alouettes right here in Montreal. Needless to say, the Als have had this rematch circled and I certainly don't expect them to turn in another flat defensive performance as they look to keep their three-game winning streak rolling. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 9-2 with the RedBlacks coming off five or six losses in their last seven games over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of just 41.0 points. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
10-09-22 | Falcons v. Bucs -9.5 | Top | 15-21 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 28 m | Show |
NFC Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Tampa Bay minus the points over Atlanta at 1 pm et on Sunday. We've been high on the Falcons lately and why not as they've gone a perfect 4-0 ATS so far this season, including consecutive outright underdog wins over Seattle and Cleveland. I think they're in for a rude awakening on Sunday, however, as they travel to Tampa to face a Buccaneers squad that finds itself in a blow-up spot off consecutive home losses against the Packers and Chiefs. It's not often teams get to play three straight games at home but that's the case for the Bucs on Sunday. They're seemingly catching the Falcons at the right time as well as Atlanta will be without Swiss Army knife RB Cordarrelle Patterson. That's not to mention the fact that TE Kyle Pitts is banged-up as well - likely to play but not likely to be at 100%. Of course, Pitts has been disappointing apart from his strong blocking this year, failing to live up to the hype in his sophomore campaign, so far at least. Lost in the Falcons competitive start to the season is the fact that their offense has been extremely limited and one-dimensional. Last week, QB Marcus Mariota completed just 7-of-19 passes for 131 yards against a Browns pass defense that had been struggling (not to mention a pass rush that was missing Myles Garrett and JaDeveon Clowney). Since completing 20 passes in Week 1 against New Orleans, Mariota has totalled 17 or less completions in each of the last three games. We know that the Bucs can stop the run and that leaves the Falcons in a tough spot should they fall behind early in this one. Tampa Bay's offense was forced to throw the gameplan out the window after digging an early hole of its own against Kansas City last Sunday night. In fact, the Bucs have run the football only 20 times in the last week as game script has certainly worked against them. Here, we can anticipate a much different story unfolding as the Falcons have done little to slow opposing ground attacks, yielding just shy of 5.0 yards per rush. And let's not forget that the Tampa Bay offense got most of its key parts back last week with Mike Evans leading the charge with two touchdown receptions. Atlanta's opponents have been filling up the boxscore through the air, completing 23, 27, 32 and 21 passes through four games - despite combining for seven turnovers short-circuiting drive-after-drive. The Bucs had little trouble in this matchup last year, winning both meetings by a combined 78-42 margin. Here, we'll note that the Falcons check in a woeful 6-16 ATS the last 22 times they've come off an outright win as a home underdog, as is the situation here. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
|||||||
10-09-22 | Seahawks v. Saints UNDER 46 | Top | 32-39 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 36 m | Show |
NFC Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Seattle and New Orleans at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Seahawks enter this game off consecutive 'over' results, including last week's 93-point shootout in Detroit. I expect a much different story to unfold on Sunday as they stay on the road to face the Saints at the Superdome in New Orleans. I think both teams have an interest in effectively shortening this game as their best chance at coming away victorious. For the Seahawks, they're essentially playing with 'house money' off to a surprising 2-2 start and having already won the front-half of this two-game road set. They've been throwing the football far more than most expected given head coach Pete Carroll's penchant for 'establishing the run' at all costs. Here, I think we'll see Seattle get back to that run-first gameplan with RB Rashaad Penny performing exceptionally well. The problem here is that the Saints defense is capable of smothering opposing ground attacks and I'm not convinced the Seahawks passing game can do enough to keep them honest here. Note that only four other pass defenses have held opposing quarterbacks to a lower completion percentage than the Saints this season. Offensively, New Orleans is limited, due in large part to a number of key injuries. QB Jameis Winston isn't expected to play meaning the offense will once again be left in the hands of veteran Andy Dalton. Returning from London, I don't believe the Saints have any interest in getting involved in an exhausting shootout here. Look for them to focus on churning out long, clock-eating drives with a focus on running the football with Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram. The Seahawks have been helpless against the run this season, yielding well north of 5.0 yards per rush but the Saints ground attack has appeared anything but explosive so we could see a bit of a stagnant battle here. Note that last year's meeting between these two teams totalled just 23 points, easily staying 'under' the closing total of 41.5. We're working with a considerably higher total here and I don't believe it's warranted. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
10-09-22 | Bears v. Vikings OVER 44 | Top | 22-29 | Win | 100 | 47 h 56 m | Show |
NFC North Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Minnesota at 1 pm et on Sunday. I expected the Vikings to be a strong 'over' play with Kevin O'Connell taking over head coaching duties from Mike Zimmer this season, not to mention Minnesota's leaky defense. It took a few weeks but now we've seen the Vikings get involved in consecutive shootouts, loosely-speaking, resulting in back-to-back 'overs' against Detroit and New Orleans (in London). Here, I expect another higher-scoring than expected matchup against the Bears in friendly offensive conditions indoors in Minnesota. The Bears offense has been putrid so far this season but it has also faced some tough defensive opponents, in difficult settings, with the exception of a game against Houston in which it scored a season-high 23 points. Here, there's reason for optimism as the Bears running game should feast on a Vikings run defense that has been virtually non-existent this season. QB Justin Fields continues to be under constant duress but there will be plays to be made against a below-average Vikings secondary in this game, especially as game-script will likely favor the Bears going a little more aggressive playing from behind. It should be all systems go for the Vikings offense as they look to tee off on a Bears defense that has done little to slow opposing running or passing games this season. Chicago checks in allowing 4.8 yards per rush, setting this up as a blow-up spot for Vikes RB Dalvin Cook. The Bears could be in dire straits trying to defend Vikings WR Justin Jefferson, who checks in off a dominant performance in London, noting that CB Jaylon Johnson is questionable to play again this week as he recovers from a quad injury that has kept him out of the last two games. Note that last year's matchup between these two teams in Minnesota totalled 48 points. The 'over' is 9-1 the last 10 times Minnesota has come off an ATS loss, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 55.0 points. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
10-08-22 | Air Force -10 v. Utah State | Top | 27-34 | Loss | -110 | 79 h 40 m | Show |
MWC Game of the Month. My selection is on Air Force minus the points over Utah State at 7 pm et on Saturday. I really like the way this one sets up for Air Force. The Falcons are coming off an ugly 13-10 victory over Navy last Saturday. Bettors lined up to back Air Force in that contest and got burned as it never came close to sniffing out a cover. Here, I think the wrong thing to do would be to back off of the Falcons. They're in a smash spot as they make the trip to Logan to take on Utah State. The Aggies are off to a 1-4 start and while they did put up more of a fight than most expected, they still dropped a 38-26 decision against BYU last Thursday. Utah State jumped out to an early 7-0 start in that contest with surprising starting QB Cooper Legas clearly catching the BYU defense off guard. From there, however, it managed just two more touchdowns the rest of the way with one of those coming in the game's final two minutes when the outcome was all but decided. Just two games back, when the Aggies were fresh off an embarrassing 35-7 home loss against FCS squad Weber State and appeared to be in prime bounce-back position, they gave up three UNLV touchdowns over a seven-minute stretch early in the contest and ultimately lost by 10 points at home. We've already successfully backed Air Force twice this season, at home against Colorado and Nevada, while also successfully fading it in its lone previous loss - a stunning 17-14 weeknight defeat in Wyoming back on September 16th. I'm not going to knock the Falcons over last week's tight decision against a struggling Navy squad as you never really know how those 'Commander-in-Chief Trophy' games will go (just ask Army about its game against Navy last December). Air Force has undoubtedly had this game circled after dropping a wild 49-45 loss against Utah State in last year's meeting. That was a much stronger Aggies squad, on both sides of the football. I have little confidence in Utah State's ability to get back in this game should it fall behind as Air Force controls the football, controls the clock and ultimately controls the outcome. Take Air Force (10*). |
|||||||
10-08-22 | Mariners v. Blue Jays -150 | Top | 10-9 | Loss | -150 | 8 h 47 m | Show |
A.L. Wild Card Game of the Year. My selection is on Toronto over Seattle at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. The Blue Jays offense was non-existent against Mariners ace Luis Castillo yesterday, falling by a 4-0 score in a game that was never competitive. Here, I look for Toronto to answer back and salvage its season with a victory behind Kevin Gausman on Saturday afternoon. It may be surprising to some that Gausman actually led the league in FIP with a 2.38 this season. He did allow 3.71 runs per nine innings but that's still better than his counterpart on Saturday, Robbie Ray's 3.81 mark. Gausman didn't necessarily have his best stuff in his lone outing against Seattle this season, allowing two earned runs over five innings back in mid-May, but he does own a career 2.64 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in seven outings against the Mariners. Note that Ray checks in sporting a 4.17 FIP on the campaign. Note that Toronto has outscored opponents by 0.5 runs on average when playing at home off a loss this season (32-game sample size). The Blue Jays are also a long-term 309-263 (+55 net games) after scoring one run or less in their previous contest, as is the case here. Take Toronto (10*). |
|||||||
10-08-22 | Utah v. UCLA UNDER 64.5 | Top | 32-42 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 33 m | Show |
Pac-12 Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Utah and UCLA at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. We won with UCLA against Washington last week as that matchup set up well for the Bruins to stay undefeated while also ending the Huskies perfect run in what turned out to be a wild, high-scoring game. It's a much different story this week as I like the way this one sets up as a lower-scoring affair as the visiting Utes aim to deliver their fifth straight victory since dropping their opener at Florida. That trip to The Swamp to face the Gators in Week 1 was a tough one to be sure. Often teams just aren't ready to get punched in the mouth right out of the gate and I think that was the case with Utah - even though that result against Florida certainly could have gone either way. Since then, the Utes have been nothing short of dominant. Over their last four games they've allowed a grand total of four touchdowns. The only touchdown scores they allowed against San Diego State and Arizona State came when those games were already long decided, up 35-0 in the closing minutes of the fourth quarter against the Aztecs and 34-6 as the clock wound down against the Sun Devils. Last week, Utah gave up a touchdown in the first six minutes of the game against Oregon State but that was it as far as touchdowns go the rest of the way as the Utes cruised to a 42-16 victory. I am somewhat concerned about the season-ending injury to Utah TE Brant Kuithe. He was a big part of what the Utes do on offense and certainly added to the comfort level of QB Cam Rising. Kuithe led the Utes in receiving in last year's meeting with UCLA. That's not to say Utah can't be explosive without him - we still saw it put up 40+ points in last week's win over Oregon State, but his absence is notable to be sure. While UCLA doesn't shy away from shootouts often, I think it might be well-served to employ more of a clock-control offensive gameplan here, knowing its own defensive deficiencies. Keep in mind, this matchup went Utah's way by a 44-24 score last year. Forcing nine turnovers over its last four games, UCLA has been gaining plenty of extra offensive possessions but Utah isn't likely to be as generous, noting that it has turned the football over just four times in five games this season. I expect to see both teams churn out some long, clock-eating drives over the course of this game. While the Bruins defense has struggled for extended stretches, we also have to give it credit for last week's win over Washington as it gave up a touchdown in the game's first five minutes but then held the Huskies out of the end zone until there were just over five minutes remaining in the third quarter. The Bruins did give up two more touchdowns in the fourth quarter but that was when the outcome was all but decided, up 40-16 (Washington tacked on a pair of two-point conversions to make the final score a little more flattering). Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 30-14 the last 44 times Utah has played on the road following a home win by 17+ points with that spot producing an average total of just 48.1 points. The 'under' is also 87-60 in the Bruins last 147 games following an 'over' result, resulting in an average total of 54.6 points in that spot. I mentioned last year's matchup between these two teams totalled 68 points, sailing 'over' the closing total of 60.5. We're dealing with a higher number this time around and I'll point out the last time these teams met on this field we saw just 51 total points in 2018. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
10-08-22 | Tennessee v. LSU OVER 61.5 | Top | 40-13 | Loss | -110 | 121 h 11 m | Show |
SEC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Tennessee and LSU at 12 noon et on Saturday. I really like the way this one sets up in early action on Saturday. Tennessee is coming off a wild 38-33 win over rival Florida two weeks ago, elevating it into the nation's Top-10. That game really told us all we need to know about the Volunteers. While they can score at will, they'll also give up their share of points. After a first quarter that saw just a single Tennessee field goal in terms of scoring, the rest of the contest was a wild ride. The second quarter saw four touchdowns over a 13-minute stretch. Three touchdowns were scored over an eight-minute stretch in the third quarter and three more touchdowns were tacked on in another eight-minute period in the fourth quarter. Keep in mind, outside of a road date with Pitt earlier in the season, the Vols hadn't really faced an opponent that could provide much heartburn offensively. The Tennessee offense has been outstanding through four games. What I really like about this offense is the way it pours it on even after games are long decided. Note that two games back against Akron, the Vols entered the fourth quarter with a 49-3 lead and proceeded to tack on two more touchdowns. In its season-opener, Tennessee added a fourth quarter touchdown to finish with 59 points in a rout of Ball State. The Vols will likely need all the points they can get on the road against a surging LSU squad here. The Tigers haven't been all that impressive offensively but I do believe a breakout is coming. We saw an expected defensive slugfest on the road against Auburn last Saturday but earlier in the season we saw a glimpse of what might be in store for this offense in a 31-16 win over Mississippi State. After getting off to a slow start, we saw LSU score three touchdowns in just over a nine-minute stretch in the fourth quarter. Dual-threat QB Jayden Daniels threw for more than 200 yards while running for just shy of 100 against a pretty good Bulldogs defense on that night. In a game where the Tigers could have easily taken it easy and cruised to a comfortable win, they scored five offensive touchdowns over a 15-minute stretch in the first half against FCS squad Southern University back in Week 2. The explosiveness is there and I think we'll see it in a shootout against the Vols here. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
10-08-22 | TCU -6.5 v. Kansas | Top | 38-31 | Win | 100 | 29 h 32 m | Show |
Big 12 Game of the Month. My selection is on TCU minus the points over Kansas at 12 noon et on Saturday. Kansas has turned heads in the early going this season, reeling off five consecutive victories to break into the Top 25. I expect the Jayhawks run to end here, however. Last week's 14-11 win over Iowa State was the high point for Kansas - finally earning it some national recognition for its hot start. It will be running into a juggernaut in the TCU Horned Frogs on Saturday. TCU absolutely throttled Oklahoma last Saturday, scoring five touchdowns in an 18-minute stretch in the first half to jump ahead and never look back in a 55-24 win. That's just the tip of the iceberg though. Two weeks ago the Horned Frogs scored four touchdowns in a 22-minute period in the first half en route to a 42-34 win over SMU, on the road no less, and there were also earlier merciless beatings of Colorado and FCS squad Tarleton State by a combined 97-30 margin. While the TCU defense has been somewhat forgiving in the early going this season, I will note that it allowed just two Oklahoma touchdowns in the first three quarters of last week's game. Against SMU it was already ahead 28-7 before the Mustangs caught it with its guard down and ultimately made a game of it. Here, I'm confident we'll see the Horned Frogs keep their mind on task against a conference opponent on the road. I hate to say it, but I do feel that Kansas has been very fortunate to start 5-0. Both West Virginia and Houston appeared poised to end the Jayhawks undefeated run earlier in the season but I think they both got caught thinking they could shift it into cruise control after building two-touchdown first quarter leads. This is obviously a much different Jayhawks squad and one that shouldn't be dismissed. I'm just not convinced the Kansas offense can keep within arm's reach in this one, noting that Iowa State laid out a pretty good blueprint for slowing dual-threat QB Jalon Daniels last Saturday, even in a losing effort (Daniels completed just 7-of-14 passes for 93 yards and ran for only nine yards on eight attempts). Kansas lost RB Daniel Hishaw to an injury in that contest as well, heaping a little more pressure on Daniels moving forward. Here, we'll note that Kansas is a woeful 35-54 ATS the last 89 times it has come off a home victory. In the Jayhawks last 21 games as an underdog they've been outscored by an average margin of 21.9 points. While I understand this is a different Kansas team, I'm still not completely sold on it being a legitimate Big 12 contender. Take TCU (10*). |
|||||||
10-07-22 | UNLV v. San Jose State UNDER 50.5 | Top | 7-40 | Win | 100 | 108 h 25 m | Show |
Mountain West Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between UNLV and San Jose State at 10:30 pm et on Friday. We won with San Jose State in its rout of Wyoming last Saturday but I'll go a different route and back the 'under' as the Spartans return home to host UNLV on Friday. The Runnin' Rebels are coming off a tougher-than-expected 31-20 win over New Mexico last week. UNLV gave up two first quarter touchdowns in that contest but didn't allow another touchdown the rest of the way in that come-from-behind victory. Concerning was the fact that it took the Rebels until over midway through the third quarter to reach the end zone. It's been a case of feast-or-famine for the UNLV offense this season. Two games back against a weak Utah State squad, the Rebels scored three touchdowns in a seven-minute stretch early in the first half but then managed just one more touchdown the rest of the way. Here, UNLV will face a tough San Jose State defense that has given up just two touchdowns over its last six quarters of football. This will undoubtedly be UNLV's toughest defensive test since being held to just 14 points in a six-point loss on the road against California back on September 10th. Last Saturday, the Spartans put up 33 points in the win over Wyoming but that was largely a result of the Cowboys offense not being able to stay on the field, effectively leaving their defense out to dry. San Jose State controlled the football for more than 36 minutes in that contest. It is worth noting that it wasn't until more than eight minutes into the second quarter that the Spartans managed to reach the end zone in that game. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a perfect 7-0 the last seven times San Jose State has come off consecutive wins, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
10-07-22 | Saskatchewan v. Hamilton UNDER 49 | Top | 14-18 | Win | 100 | 36 h 57 m | Show |
Non-Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Saskatchewan and Hamilton at 7:30 pm et on Friday. We won with the 'under' in the Riders blowout loss to the Blue Bombers last Friday and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play this week as Saskatchewan travels to Hamilton to face the Tiger-Cats. The Riders have allowed their last three opponents to rack up 130+ rushing yards but that's had more to do with negative game script than anything else as they dropped all three contests, with two of them coming in blowout fashion against the Bombers. Hamilton doesn't figure to have the type of offense to take full advantage of the Riders defensive deficiencies, noting that it hasn't had a 100+ rushing yard game since August 12th against Toronto. The Riders pass defense has held up well, allowing just 27-of-49 completions over their last two games. You would have to go back six games to find the last time the Riders allowed an opponent to pass for over 300 yards. This is actually a higher posted total than we saw the last time these two teams met back in June - a game that totalled only 43 points. Note that the 'under' is 30-16 the last 46 times the Riders have played on the road after losing three of their last four games ATS, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 46.9 points. Meanwhile, the Ti-Cats have seen the 'under' go 34-18 the last 52 times they've sought revenge for a road loss by 17+ points against an opponent, which is also the situation here, leading to an average total of 48.2 points in that spot. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
10-06-22 | Colts +3.5 v. Broncos | Top | 12-9 | Win | 100 | 80 h 54 m | Show |
TNF Game of the Month. My selection is on Indianapolis plus the points over Denver at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. We won with the Colts two weeks ago as they pulled off a stunning upset of the Chiefs at home. They couldn't follow it up with another victory last Sunday as they fell by a 24-17 score at home against the division-rival Titans. Note that Indianapolis was seemingly driving for the game-tying touchdown deep in Tennessee territory midway through the fourth quarter before a Jonathan Taylor fumble. Taylor is of course now injured and questionable to play on a short week. I'm not overly concerned with his potential absence as this Colts offense works just fine with Nyheim Hines in the backfield, who is more of a dual-threat back. Here, we'll note that the Colts are a perfect 6-0 ATS the last six times they've played on the road after losing two of their last three games ATS. The pressure is mounting in Denver as the Broncos are now 2-2 on the season off a loss to the Raiders in Las Vegas on Sunday. The Raiders were the first team to really run at this Broncos defensive front and they racked up 212 rushing yards on 38 attempts. Offensively, the Broncos have been a mess. It's getting to the point where you have to wonder whether Russell Wilson (and head coach Nathaniel Hackett for that matter) are the right fit running this offense. The Colts couldn't stop Derrick Henry last Sunday but that's nothing new. They did shut down the Titans passing game for the most part, allowing only 116 yards on 17-of-21 pass completions. Most are quick to write off Colts QB Matt Ryan who I'll admit appears 'washed' through the first four games of the season. I do think there's more to this team than just Ryan, however, and I'm confident head coach Frank Reich can scheme up a solid bounce-back performance from his team here. Take Indianapolis (10*). |
|||||||
10-06-22 | PFC Ludogorets Razgrad v. HJK Helsinki OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 16 m | Show |
Europa League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between HJK Helsinki and Ludogorets Razgrad at 12:45 pm et on Thursday. With these two teams occupying the bottom two spots in the Group C table, we can anticipate both 'going for it' on Thursday in Helsinki. I like the way this one sets up as a relatively high-scoring affair. Note that Ludogorets Razgrad enters having gone winless in its last three matches, failing to record a clean sheet in any of those contests. Not surprisingly, its defensive deficiencies have led to the 'over' 2.5 goals going 7-2 in its last nine matches across all competitions. It's been a similar story for HJK Helsinki. It has seen each of its last five contests go 'over' 2.5 total goals. Neither side appears set on its back line - Helsinki's only saving grace has been keeper Conor Hazard but he's been relegated to bench duty on many occasions. Razgrad can be exploited on the right side of its defense and is likely to have little-used Simon Sluga between the sticks. While this isn't the most attractive matchup on paper, I do expect some offensive fireworks on Thursday. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
10-05-22 | Cubs v. Reds UNDER 8.5 | Top | 15-2 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
N.L. Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Cincinnati at 4:10 pm et on Wednesday. Neither of these teams have been scoring down the stretch, looking generally disinterested in doing anything other than 'playing out the string'. I expect nothing different in Wednesday's season-finale in Cincinnati. Adrian Sampson has actually been one of the Cubs most reliable starting pitchers this season, checking in with a 3.81 FIP and 1.20 WHIP while allowing just shy of 3.4 runs per nine innings. It's been a much different story for his opponent on Wednesday, Graham Ashcraft. He's had a trying rookie campaign in Cincinnati and will be facing the Cubs for the fourth time. On a positive note, he has limited the walks (2.3 per nine innings) and home runs (0.9 per nine innings). With the Reds having dropped each of his last three outings against the Cubs he'll be out for revenge here. While it's had a lot to do with facing disinterested opponents, the two bullpens have been terrific down the stretch with the Cubs relief corps posting a 2.28 ERA and 0.89 WHIP over the last seven games and the Reds 'pen recording a 2.83 ERA and 1.15 WHIP over the same stretch. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
10-04-22 | Twins v. White Sox OVER 7 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a low-scoring game between these two teams last night. I expect a different story to unfold on Tuesday, however. Josh Winder will get the start for the visiting Twins. The White Sox will be getting their second look at him in less than a week after plating three earned runs in 4 2/3 innings against him on September 28th. He didn't give up a home run in that outing but that was an unlikely occurrence as he has been tagged for at least one long ball in four of his last five starts, giving up two in three of those outings. For the season, Winder owns a 4.90 FIP and 1.25 WHIP while yielding 1.5 home runs per nine innings. White Sox starter Lucas Giolito has labored through the 2022 campaign, recording a 4.07 FIP and 1.47 WHIP while giving up 1.4 home runs per nine innings (not to mention just shy of 10.0 hits per nine frames). The Twins will be getting their third look at the right-hander since September 4th, having scored four earned runs off of him in 10 innings in those two previous contests. Between the two bullpens this season, we've seen a whopping 47 combined blown saves so the potential for late runs is there as well. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
10-04-22 | Napoli v. Ajax Amsterdam OVER 3 | Top | 6-1 | Win | 103 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
Champions League Total of the Month. My selection is on the first half 'over' between Ajax and Napoli at 3 pm et on Tuesday. I expect plenty of fireworks in this showdown between Group A's top two teams in Amsterdam on Tuesday. Napoli sits atop the group having recorded two victories in as many tries in this stage. It will be in tough trying to hold off a terrific Ajax side here, however. Note that both teams check in having seen five of their last six matches go 'over' 2.5 total goals. More importantly for our purposes, both sides have shown the ability to strike first. Ajax has scored first in eight of its last nine matches while you would have to go back six contests to find the last time Napoli didn't find the back of the net first. In that vein, we've also seen Dutch side Ajax lead at halftime in seven of its last nine matches. However, it has gone winless in its last three contests across all competitions while Napoli brings an incredible 21-match undefeated streak into this one. Both sides are explosive up front. Mohammed Kudus has gone scoreless in his last three matches, including a pair of games for his national team, Ghana. I expect him to make amends with Ajax here. Napoli has the firepower to answer, however, noting that it just tallied three first half markers in its Serie A victory over Torino this past Saturday. Take the first half over (10*). |
|||||||
10-03-22 | Rams v. 49ers UNDER 42.5 | Top | 9-24 | Win | 100 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
NFC West Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and San Francisco at 8:15 pm et on Monday. The 49ers have seen all three of their games stay 'under' the total this season and I expect more of the same on Monday night. A lot of what San Francisco wanted to do offensively went out the window when QB Trey Lance went down to a season-ending injury in Week 2 against Seattle (we won with the Niners in that game). Jimmy Garoppolo is more than capable of running an NFL offense - and the Niners offense in particular - but I don't think we're going to see many blowup spots from this unit. This is obviously a difficult matchup against a Rams defense that knows Garoppolo's tendencies and gives up little against the run. Compounding matters for San Francisco is the absence of all-world tackle Trent Williams after he suffered an ankle injury last Sunday night. I'm higher on his backup, Colton McKivitz, than most but the absence of Williams is only part of the problem as the San Francisco o-line continues to deal with issues on the interior, issues that the Rams standout defensive line can exploit. TE George Kittle has been a virtual non-factor this season and that's unlikely to change as he's needed in pass protection far too often. On the flip side, the Rams offense looks broken. Yes, there was a strong first half against the Falcons two weeks ago but outside of that this unit has had a miserable time coming up with big plays, whether on the ground or through the air. Here, L.A. will likely be banging its head against the wall trying to run on a Niners defense that yields just 2.9 yards per rush this season. Last week against a bad Arizona defense, the Rams were gifted excellent starting position (on the Cardinals 35-yard line) on their first drive but needed nine plays to eventually settle for a field goal. They were again handed excellent field position on their next drive and did convert a Cooper Kupp touchdown but from there it was three-and-out, field goal, three-and-out and three-and-out on their next four drives. Speaking of Kupp, he has owned the Niners recently, however it's worth noting that even in a game where he racked up 140+ receiving yards and two touchdowns in last January's NFC Championship, the Rams still only managed to score 20 points. While I do expect both offenses to move up and down the field in this one, I question how many drives they'll end with 7's rather than 3's. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 5-2 in the 49ers last seven games off a road loss and better still, the 'under' is a perfect 4-0 the last four times they've come off an outright loss as a road favorite, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
10-03-22 | Diamondbacks v. Brewers -1.5 | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
N.L. Non-Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Milwaukee -1.5 runs over Arizona at 7:40 pm et on Monday. I understand the hesitation to lay an extra run with a Brewers team that has had a tough enough time simply winning games lately, let alone by margin. With that being said, I like the spot on Monday as the Brew Crew look to bounce back from consecutive one-run losses against the Marlins as they host a D'Backs club simply playing out the string on the final stop of this road trip that has already taken them to Houston and San Francisco. Brewers starter Brandon Woodruff has supplanted Corbin Burnes as the team's 'ace', reeling off a stretch of four consecutive incredible outings. Over that stretch, Woodruff has allowed just four earned runs on 18 hits while striking out 42 and walking only five in 26 innings of work. Arizona will counter with rookie left-hander Tommy Henry. He got off to a reasonably solid start this season but the wheels have since come off as he's been tagged for 17 earned runs on 20 hits over his last three starts, covering a span of just 13 innings. Behind Henry is a D'Backs bullpen that has posted a 5.96 ERA and 1.54 WHIP over the last seven games. Noting that the Brewers have won each of Woodruff's last three starts by 3+ runs, I'm comfortable backing them on the run-line here. Take Milwaukee -1.5 runs (10*). |
|||||||
10-02-22 | Bills -3 v. Ravens | Top | 23-20 | Push | 0 | 22 h 46 m | Show |
AFC Game of the Month. My selection is on Buffalo minus the points over Baltimore at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Bills employed the right strategy with an undermanned defense in the Miami heat last Sunday, churning out long offensive drives that effectively shortened the game. The problem was, they couldn't finish their drives with 7's on the board and it ultimately cost them in a stunning defeat. Here, I look for Buffalo to bounce back with a big win over the Ravens, who are off a considerable victory of their own in New England last Sunday. Ravens QB Lamar Jackson has been running wild but I'm confident the Bills can contain him - at least on the ground - in this one. Man-to-man defense just doesn't work against the dual-threat Jackson. Buffalo will likely stick to zone here and force Lamar to beat it through the air. Offensively, the Bills should feast on a banged-up Ravens defense. Josh Allen is highly unlikely to turn in two 'bad' games in a row - and I use that term loosely. Let's not forget that the Ravens made Patriots sophomore QB Mac Jones look good last week. Allen should go off in this spot and I look for the Bills to 'get right', noting that Buffalo has gone 28-14 ATS the last 42 times it has played on the road off a road loss, as is the case here. Take Buffalo (10*). |
|||||||
10-02-22 | Titans v. Colts OVER 43 | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 36 m | Show |
AFC South Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Tennessee and Indianapolis at 1 pm et on Sunday. We missed with the 'over' in the Colts upset win over the Chiefs last Sunday but did win with Indy plus the points. Here, I'm willing to go back to the well with the same play as Indy stays at home to host the division-rival Titans, who check in off their first win of the season. This is a blow-up spot for Colts RB Jonathan Taylor against a Titans defense that gives up a whopping 6.1 yards per rush this season. Everyone is down on Colts QB Matt Ryan, who I'll admit looks a little washed at this point of his career. With that being said, Michael Pittman Jr. is back healthy and Ryan does have a 300+ yard passing game under his best this season (back in Week 1 against Houston). I'm willing to bet against the Titans defense here. On the flip side, the Titans offense couldn't have looked any worse against Buffalo two weeks ago. That was very much game script related, however, as they dug a massive hole and had to throw their gameplan out the window. Here, I'm confident we'll see the Titans use RB Derrick Henry effectively against a Colts defense that will once again be without LB Shaquille Leonard. Credit the Colts defense for stepping up against the Chiefs last week but the Titans can score on this unit, as we saw in last year's wild 34-31 victory on this field. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
10-01-22 | Georgia State v. Army -7.5 | Top | 31-14 | Loss | -107 | 96 h 22 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Army minus the points over Georgia State at 12 noon et on Saturday. Poor tackling has been Georgia State's calling card on the way to an 0-4 record this seaosn. That doesn't bode well as the Panthers head to West Point to take on Army and its triple-option offense on Saturday. In last week's loss against Coastal Carolina, Georgia State allowed three touchdowns in the game's first 14 minutes, including two in the first five minutes on its way to a 41-24 loss. Even when the Chanticleers were simply trying to pick up a few first downs and run out the clock late, the Panthers gave up another touchdown (we unfortunately lost the 'under' as a result). The week previous, Georgia State allowed five offensive touchdowns in a 42-41 loss to Charlotte. Meanwhile, the Panthers offense has looked good for stretches but hasn't shown nearly enough consistency. Case in point, back in Week 2, when they had a shot at upsetting North Carolina, they went scoreless over the game's final 17 minutes, allowing a pair of Tar Heels touchdowns to lose 35-28. They scored a pair of first half touchdowns against Coastal Carolina last week but their offense was held out of the end zone for the entire second half. Army entered the season with sky-high hopes but things haven't gone as planned as it is off to a 1-2 start. With that said, the Black Knights did finally get loose for a 49-10 rout of a quality FCS opponent in Villanova last week. In that game, we saw Army score three touchdowns in a 21-minute stretch in the first half, before it added three more offensive touchdowns in the second half. There was no shame in Army's two losses this season as they came at the hands of aforementioned Coastal Carolina and UTSA - two teams that will more than likely be Bowl-bound. In those two games, the Black Knights still managed to put up a combined 66 points. Note that these two teams met last season and the result was no contest as Army won by a 43-10 score. The talent gap might just be wider this year but it's certainly not reflected by the pointspread. Take Army (10*). |
|||||||
10-01-22 | Kentucky +7 v. Ole Miss | Top | 19-22 | Win | 100 | 96 h 3 m | Show |
My selection is on Kentucky plus the points over Ole Miss at 12 noon et on Saturday. This is one of the better games on Saturday's college football slate and I really like the way it sets up for the underdog Wildcats. Kentucky enters this game with an identical 4-0 record to that of Ole Miss. While it hasn't been quite as flashy, the Wildcats offense has delivered nonetheless and I expect it to again in this spot. While Kentucky won by 'only' eight points as a near four touchdown favorite against Northern Illinois last week, I didn't come away overly concerned as I'm actually higher than most on the Huskies this year. Kentucky allowed a pair of first half touchdowns in that game but then held the Huskies out of the end zone until the game's final three minutes, when it was already comfortably in front by 14 points. Going back three games, the Wildcats went on the road and impressively defeated Florida by a 26-16 score (we won with the 'under' in that game). They didn't give up a touchdown until the final six minutes of the first half in that contest and after that didn't allow another offensive score of any kind the rest of the way. Then there's the Kentucky offense. It scored a touchdown in all four quarters in last week's win over NIU. Two games back the Wildcats scored four offensive touchdowns in a 21-minute stretch in the first half against then-undefeated FCS squad Youngstown State. Ole Miss rushed out to five first half touchdowns last week against Tulsa. It's worth noting, however, that the Rebels didn't score another point from there, despite Tulsa closing the gap to a couple of scores less than five minutes into the third quarter. We've seen inconsistent stretches like that from the Rebels at times this season, partially due to game script but also in part as a result of QB Jaxson Dart still figuring things out. He's completed just 51-of-82 passes, throwing for 200+ yards only once while tossing five touchdowns to go along with two interceptions. This will clearly be his toughest test to date. Last year's matchup was a barn-burner with Ole Miss prevailing by a 42-41 score. I expect this one to go down to the wire as well. Take Kentucky (8*). |
|||||||
10-01-22 | Texas Tech +8 v. Kansas State | Top | 28-37 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 20 m | Show |
Conference Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on Texas Tech plus the points over Kansas State at 12 noon et on Saturday. Kansas State is coming off a massive upset win over Oklahoma last week but I expect the Wildcats to have their hands full with Texas Tech as they return to Manhattan this Saturday. In that victory, the Wildcats scored three touchdowns in the game's first 24 minutes but then stalled until QB Adrian Martinez put the team on his back with a pair of fourth quarter touchdown runs. By all accounts, it was a career game for Martinez, the type of performance that he'll have a difficult time replicating this week. Lost in the victory was the fact that the Kansas State defense yielded two touchdowns in around five minutes on two different occasions in that contest. Keep in mind, this is a Wildcats squad that is just one game removed from losing outright by a 17-10 score at home against Tulane. Yes, there was also a 40-12 rout of Missouri earlier in the season but even in that game we saw the Wildcats offense stall for an extended stretch, held out of the end zone from 13 minutes remaining in the second quarter until 13 minutes remaining in the fourth quarter. Texas Tech picked up a much-needed rebound victory over Texas last Saturday, successfully bouncing back from a 27-14 loss on the road against a terrific N.C. State team the week previous. It's worth noting that the Red Raiders allowed just two offensive touchdowns in that loss to the Wolfpack. Earlier, in a wild 33-30 overtime win over Houston, Texas Tech allowed only one offensive touchdown in regulation time and that didn't come until nearly two minutes into the third quarter. Of course, the Red Raiders offense is fine. They scored touchdowns in all four quarters against a pretty good Texas defense last week. QB Donovan Smith got a little turnover-happy in those aforementioned games against Houston and N.C. State but has already thrown for 1,100+ yards and nine touchdowns while also adding three rushing scores. Take Texas Tech (10*). |
|||||||
09-30-22 | Washington v. UCLA +3 | Top | 32-40 | Win | 100 | 108 h 59 m | Show |
Pac-12 Game of the Year. My selection is on UCLA plus the points over Washington at 10:30 pm et on Friday. I really like the way this one sets up for UCLA as it hosts undefeated Washington on Friday night. The Huskies are 4-0 but who have they really beaten of substance? The easy answer is Michigan State and Stanford, representing their last two victories. I'm just not convinced either of those two teams are all that good, certainly not Stanford. Keep in mind this will be Washington's first road game of the season. UCLA is also 4-0 but had a big-time scare in an eventual 32-31 win over South Alabama two weeks ago that seems to be giving a lot of bettors' pause in this spot. Let's keep things in perspective - South Alabama is a quality team off to a 3-1 start. The Bruins got into a fight they probably didn't expect in that contest and ultimately prevailed, holding the Jaguars off the scoreboard for the entire fourth quarter in a come-from-behind win that they're probably now stronger because of. Last week, the Bruins rolled to a 45-17 win over Colorado. That margin could have probably been even wider in that contest were it not for a couple of defensive lapses at the end of the first half and fourth quarter. They were already ahead 21-3 when they allowed Colorado to run in a short touchdown in the final 20 seconds of the first half. UCLA didn't allow another score until the outcome as long decided, up 48-10 in the game's final three minutes. I'm more concerned about Washington's defense, which allowed three touchdowns in the game's final 34 minutes against a rather punchless Stanford attack last week. The Huskies got off to a tremendous start against Michigan State the week previous but went on to allow 28 points in the game's final 32 minutes with the final score of 39-28 far closer than they would have liked. Here, we'll note that UCLA is 23-7 ATS the last 30 times it has played at home after scoring 42+ points in its previous game, outscoring opponents by 17.7 points on average in that situation. Take UCLA (10*). |
|||||||
09-30-22 | San Diego State v. Boise State -5.5 | Top | 13-35 | Win | 100 | 106 h 43 m | Show |
Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Boise State minus the points over San Diego State at 8 pm et on Friday. San Diego State won 27-16 as a three-point home underdog in last year's matchup between these two teams. I look for Boise State to answer back on Friday night. It's not easy to get behind the Broncos right now. They're coming off a stunning 27-10 loss at UTEP last week and after that putrid offensive performance, fired offensive coordinator Tim Plough. There's no reason for Boise State to be as inconsistent offensively as it has been in the first month of the season. While San Diego State is always tough defensively, perhaps there's reason to believe Boise State can break through against the Aztecs here. San Diego State has actually struggled against any opponent with an offensive pulse this season, namely Arizona and Utah. In the opener against the Wildcats, the Aztecs allowed four touchdowns over a 22-minute stretch from the second to fourth quarter. It was a similar story against Utah as San Diego State yielded five touchdowns over a 23-minute stretch in the second and third quarters. The problem is, the Aztecs don't have the type of offense that can respond, at least not very quickly. As I did two weeks ago in my analysis of a play on Utah over San Diego State, I'm still questioning whether Virginia Tech transfer QB Braxton Burmeister is the right fit in this offense. In fact, it's becoming evident that he's not. Boise State has had its own issues offensively but the pieces are still in place to turn it around, and relieving Plough of his duties should provide a spark. The Broncos defense has been solid. Even in last week's setback, it didn't allow a touchdown until the final three minutes of the first half and then gave up only one offensive touchdown the rest of the way, that coming in the final five minutes of the fourth quarter. Boise State has actually given up just five offensive touchdowns over its last 14 quarters of action (after a rough season-opening first half against Oregon State). All is not lost as the Broncos get four of their next five games at home but it has to start with a victory here. Note that Boise State checks in a long-term 41-24 ATS when coming off two ATS losses in its last three games, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 18.2 points in that situation. Take Boise State (10*). |
|||||||
09-30-22 | Saskatchewan v. Winnipeg UNDER 48 | Top | 13-31 | Win | 100 | 57 h 29 m | Show |
CFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Saskatchewan and Winnipeg at 8 pm et on Friday. This will be the third meeting between these two teams in the last four games. The first was a low-scoring affair (we won with the 'under' in that contest) as the Blue Bombers eked out a 20-18 win. Playing on a short week, the rematch was a track meet with Winnipeg prevailing by a 54-20 score. Here, I'm anticipating something closer resembling the first matchup as the two teams come off their respective bye weeks. It's worth noting that this total is higher than both of the previous meetings. When we last saw Winnipeg take the field, it was routed by a 48-31 score in Hamilton. Needless to say it will be focused on getting things back under control defensively on Friday. We're still talking about one of the league's best defensive teams. The Riders lost 26-24 against the lowly Elks last time out. Edmonton ran wild in that game, racking up 202 rushing yards on just 22 carries. I'm willing to chalk that up as an anomaly as Saskatchewan has allowed just 95 rush yards per game this season. It is worth noting that the Riders did hold Edmonton to 13-of-24 passing for 237 yards and haven't allowed an opponent to pass for 300+ yards since August 19th against B.C. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 16-6 the last 22 times the Riders have played on the road off an upset loss against a division opponent, with that spot producing an average total of just 44.0 points. Meanwhile, the 'under' has gone 14-4 the last 18 times the Bombers have come off an upset loss by 17+ points, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 47.5 points. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
09-30-22 | Royals +121 v. Guardians | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Kansas City over Cleveland at 7:10 pm et on Friday. This will be our last chance to back Brady Singer this season and I like his chances of lifting the Royals out of their current slide. Singer checks in having posted a 0.45 ERA and 0.90 WHIP over his last three starts. Kansas City has incredibly won eight of his last nine trips to the hill. Note that the Royals did lose in a Singer start against these same Guardians earlier this month but I look for him to get his revenge here. Here, we'll note that the Royals are 21-13 in Singer's last 34 starts against A.L. Central opponents over the last two seasons. Aaron Civale will take the ball for Cleveland. He owns a 4.41 ERA and 0.86 WHIP over his last three starts. Note that the Guardians have won just twice in his five career outings against Kansas City including an 11-1 defeat in his lone previous start against the Royals here at home. Take Kansas City (10*). |
|||||||
09-30-22 | Tulane v. Houston UNDER 55.5 | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 105 h 4 m | Show |
AAC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Tulane and Houston at 7 pm et on Friday. The lookahead total for this game was much higher than the number we're currently dealing with and rightfully so. I still feel there's considerable value backing the 'under' on Friday night in Houston. Tulane is off to an impressive 3-1 start but it will be in a foul mood after suffering a 27-24 defeat at home against Southern Miss last Saturday. The Green Wave offense got off to a predictably hot start thanks to a schedule that saw it open against UMass and FCS squad Alcorn State. Tulane impressed in a 17-10 road win against Kansas State but that upset victory was obviously fuelled by its defense as it held the Wildcats out of the end zone until the final three minutes of the first half and then didn't give up another touchdown the rest of the way. Even in the losing effort against Southern Miss last Saturday, the Green Wave allowed only two offensive touchdowns (the Eagles also returned an interception for a touchdown). While Houston has been involved in some high-scoring games, its offense hasn't been the juggernaut that most were expecting. The Cougars barely eked out a 34-27 win over Rice last Saturday. In that contest they scored a touchdown in the final seconds of the first quarter but then didn't reach the end zone again until early in the third quarter. They only prevailed thanks to a fumble return for a touchdown in the final four minutes of the fourth quarter. Save for a 38-30 loss against Kansas, the Houston defense has played well. It's worth noting that the Cougars jumped ahead 14-0 early in that game against the Jayhawks and probably figured they would cruise the rest of the way. In a road date against Texas Tech in Week 2, Houston allowed a pair of second quarter touchdowns but that was it until overtime (that game totalled 63 points but included 23 points in two overtime sessions). The Cougars season-opener against UTSA needed three overtimes to decide. That game didn't feature any scoring until the second quarter and totalled only 48 points in regulation time. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
09-29-22 | Dolphins v. Bengals OVER 47.5 | Top | 15-27 | Loss | -110 | 78 h 16 m | Show |
TNF Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Cincinnati at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. We missed with the 'over' in the Dolphins 21-19 upset win over the Bills on Sunday after cashing with the same play in their thrilling come-from-behind shootout win over the Ravens the week previous. Here, I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play for a third consecutive week. Buffalo not-so-mysteriously employed a 'keep-away' strategy against the Dolphins on Sunday, clearly doing so in an effort to protect their severely undermanned defense, particularly in the secondary. The Bills effectively shortened the game, churning out long drives and eating plenty of clock but it ultimately worked to their detriment as they couldn't finish drives with touchdowns, not often enough at least. Here, I expect the Bengals to go on the attack early and often on offense, noting that they've already attempted 53, 36 and 36 passes in their first three games, with the latter tally coming in Sunday's lopsided win over the Jets - a game where you would have assumed game script would have led to the opposite gameplan. With Joe Mixon banged-up, I'm not convinced we'll see the Bengals go run-heavy here. We finally saw their much-maligned offensive line start to come together in Sunday's win and I'm confident we'll see further progression here. The Dolphins secondary is ripe for the picking in my opinion, especially with CB Xavien Howard still nursing a groin injury and playing on a short week after getting a heavy dose of Bills WR Stefon Diggs on Sunday. As for the Miami offense, whether Tua Tagovailoa can go or not (he's dealing with head/back injuries - shrouded in a cloud of mystery as of Monday), I'm confident we'll see Mike McDaniel employ an aggressive gameplan, knowing his team will likely need to score more than the 21 points it put up on Sunday in order to stay undefeated for another week. The Bengals couldn't have faced a weaker slate of opposing quarterbacks through three weeks, going up against Mitchell Trubisky, Cooper Rush and Joe Flacco. Still, they allowed 674 passing yards on just 68 completions. We already know the Dolphins can play fast and put up points playing from behind after their massive Week 2 comeback against the Ravens. That's the projected game script here as well as they check in as a road underdog against the Bengals. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 7-1 in the Bengals last eight games when coming off a double-digit victory and a modest 11-9 in the Dolphins last 20 games following an 'under' result. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
09-29-22 | Utah State v. BYU -24 | Top | 26-38 | Loss | -110 | 83 h 38 m | Show |
My selection is on BYU minus the points over Utah State at 8 pm et on Thursday. Utah State might not be the worst defensive team in the country but it's in the conversation. Looking back, all of the signs were there in the Aggies 31-20 Week 0 victory over Connecticut. The Huskies have one of the most punchless offenses in the nation yet they managed to score 20 points, including two first quarter touchdowns in Utah State's season and home-opener. From there we saw an expected rout at the hands of Alabama before the Aggies returned home for what should have been a big bounce-back performance against FCS squad Weber State. Instead, Utah State lost 35-7. Last Saturday, the Aggies gave up three touchdowns in the game's first 19 minutes on their way to a 34-24 defeat. You get the picture. BYU figures to take advantage. The Cougars weren't their sharpest offensively but still scored four touchdowns in the first three quarters on their way to a 38-24 win over a 'tough out' in the Wyoming Cowboys last Saturday (we won with Wyoming in its outright upset of Air Force a week earlier). BYU allowed a touchdown just under two minutes into the second quarter in that contest but then held the Cowboys out of the end zone until the fourth quarter. Note that earlier this season we saw the Cougars hold a potent Baylor offense out of the end zone until less than two minutes remaining in the first half, eventually winning that game by a 26-20 score in double-overtime. There was also a Week 1 performance where BYU didn't give up any points until South Florida found the end zone with seconds remaining in the first half - after it had fallen behind 38-0. Yes, there was a blowout loss at Oregon but that was a tough spot for BYU after starting 2-0 and coming off that big win over Baylor (note that the Ducks have scored 155 points over their last three games). BYU went on the road and won 34-20 against a much stronger Utah State squad last year - an Aggies team that essentially caught lightning in a bottle. With QB Logan Bonner mired in an awful stretch it stands to reason that Utah State could make a change at quarterback here. I'm just not convinced anyone is going to turn things around on the road on a short week against a quality opponent like BYU. Take BYU (10*). |
|||||||
09-28-22 | Orioles v. Red Sox OVER 9 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
A.L. East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Baltimore and Boston at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. We've seen two high-scoring games to open this series and I expect more of the same on Wednesday. Dean Kremer will take the ball for the playoff-hungry Orioles. Kremer is coming off a complete game shutout against the Astros - an incredible feat to be sure. However, here he's in a tough spot as he makes his third consecutive start on just four days' rest. Note that prior to tossing that complete game shutout he had allowed seven earned runs over his last three starts, covering a span of 16 2/3 innings. The Red Sox will be seeing Kremer for the third time this season and over the course of his career, the right-hander has posted a 7.23 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in four starts against Boston. Veteran left-hander Rich Hill will counter for Boston. He pitched five shutout innings against the Orioles just a couple of weeks ago. I'm confident we'll see the O's make the necessary adjustments here. Note that when Baltimore previously saw Hill on May 30th, it plated six earned runs in just four innings. Both bullpens are a mess right now. Baltimore's 'pen entered last night's action sporting a 7.25 ERA and 1.70 WHIP over the last seven games. The Red Sox relief corps recorded a 6.26 ERA and 1.52 WHIP over the same stretch. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
09-27-22 | Royals v. Tigers -103 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Detroit over Kansas City at 6:40 pm et on Tuesday. These two teams are playing some of their best baseball of the season down the stretch, not coincidentally as they deal with zero pressure having been out of the playoff race for months. Zack Greinke will get the start for the visiting Royals on Tuesday. He hasn't been awful this year, but he hasn't been good either. Greinke checks in with a 4.13 FIP and 1.39 WHIP while allowing just shy of 4.6 runs per nine innings. Behind him is a Royals bullpen that continues to struggle, having posted a collective 5.40 ERA and 1.55 WHIP over the last seven games. Detroit will counter with rookie Joey Wentz. He's been quietly impressive since returning to the bigs, lowering his FIP to 2.94 and his WHIP to 0.96 while yielding just 3.13 runs per nine innings in five starts this season. He actually faced the Royals on the road back on September 9th and didn't allow a single earned run over 6 2/3 innings - the best start of his young career. Should Wentz falter, the Tigers bullpen behind him has been solid lately, logging a collective 3.63 ERA and 1.30 WHIP with three saves converted and none blown over the last seven games. The Detroit 'pen has blown only six saves at home this season while recording a 3.50 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. Take Detroit (10*). |
|||||||
09-26-22 | Cowboys +1 v. Giants | Top | 23-16 | Win | 100 | 22 h 24 m | Show |
NFC East Game of the Month. My selection is on Dallas plus the points over New York at 8:15 pm et on Monday. Just over a week ago, few gave the Cowboys a shot at upsetting the Bengals with Dak Prescott sidelined and a banged-up offensive line tasked with the challenge of keeping backup QB Cooper Rush upright. What did Dallas do? It went out and delivered a victory over the Bengals - Rush's second high-profile win in Prescott's absence after defeating the Vikings on the road in a Sunday night game last October. Here, I believe Dallas can employ a similar gameplan to what we saw last Sunday against Cincinnati, but it will be dealing with an offense with far fewer weapons. By all accounts, New York has used smoke and mirrors to open the season 2-0, rallying in the fourth quarter for a win in Tennessee in Week 1 and scoring only 19 points in a field goal victory over the Panthers in last Sunday's home opener. RB Saquon Barkley has been the engine on offense as QB Daniel Jones has a limited amount of talent to work with at the wide receiver and tight end positions. The Cowboys being a divisional opponent know exactly what to expect from Barkley. They bottled up a pretty good Bengals ground attack to the tune of just 89 rushing yards on 25 carries last week. On the flip side, the Giants have been losing the battle in the trenches, allowing a whopping 5.0 yards per rush this season. Note that Dallas has reeled off six consecutive ATS wins over NFC East opponents, outscoring those opponents by an average margin of 22.2 points. The Cowboys are also 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games, outscoring the opposition by 6.5 points on average along the way. The Giants, meanwhile, have been outscored by 5.8 points on average in their last 10 games following a win. Take Dallas (10*). |
|||||||
09-26-22 | Braves v. Nationals OVER 8.5 | Top | 8-0 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
N.L. East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Washington at 7:05 pm et on Monday. The 'under' cashed in all three games between these two teams last week but since then the Braves have reeled off three consecutive 'over' results in a series in Philadelphia. You would have to go back to September 16th to find the last time the Nationals posted an 'over', but I look for that to change tonight. Bryce Elder will get the start for the visiting Braves. He's been a different pitcher in his last three starts compared to four rocky outings back in April. With that being said, he still owns a 4.09 FIP and 1.33 WHIP at the big league level this season and here the Nationals will be seeing him for the second time in less than a week after scoring one run on four hits and two walks over 5 2/3 innings against him last week. Note that Elder allowed 1.2 home runs per nine innings at the AAA level this season but has gone three consecutive big league starts without giving up a single long ball. I'm not convinced that will continue. Cory Abbott will counter for Washington. He's been awful this season, posting a 6.09 FIP and 1.39 WHIP while allowing 2.1 home runs and 4.85 runs per nine innings. The Braves will be getting their second look at Abbott after plating four runs on six hits including a home run over four innings last week. Abbott didn't strike out a single batter while walking two in that contest. The Nationals bullpen is a concern as well as it has logged just shy of 33 innings over its last eight games. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
09-25-22 | Falcons +1 v. Seahawks | Top | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 50 h 49 m | Show |
NFC Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over Seattle at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. The Falcons enter this game 0-2 but have been competitive in both games, perhaps illustrating a tide-turning of sorts for this down-trodden franchise. After losing, but covering the spread, in a loss against the defending Super Bowl champion Rams in Los Angeles last Sunday, they'll be determined to earn a split on this road trip with this winnable date with the Seahawks. Seattle probably experienced the high point of its entire season back in Week 1 when it upset Russell Wilson and the Broncos on Monday Night Football. We successfully faded the Seahawks last Sunday as they didn't even put up a fight in a lopsided loss to the 49ers in Santa Clara. This is a mouth-watering matchup for the Falcons offense, which is looking for a breakout performance after running against two top-level defensive teams in the Saints and Rams over the last two weeks. The Seahawks are vulnerable all over the field on defense and that should open the door for a big afternoon for standout rookie WR Drake London and dare I say TE Kyle Pitts, who has been disappointing fantasy owners everywhere but carries a strong 'it's only a matter of time' narrative. On the flip side, the Falcons defense is nothing to write home about, but neither is the Seattle offense. Vulnerable at the back-end, Atlanta catches a break by facing Seahawks QB Geno Smith who simply hasn't shown the ability to throw his receivers open deep. I can't help but feel Pete Carroll will go back a run-first philosophy here after a far more pass-centric offensive gameplan than most expected through two weeks. I also can't help but feel it won't work as the Falcons have actually been stingy against the run despite game-script that would have indicated otherwise in Weeks 1 and 2. Take Atlanta (10*). |
|||||||
09-25-22 | Bills v. Dolphins OVER 52.5 | Top | 19-21 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 43 m | Show |
Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Buffalo and Miami at 1 pm et on Sunday. Last year's two meetings between these teams were relatively low-scoring, lopsided affairs in favor of the Bills. While Buffalo has looked incredible through the first two weeks of the season, I do expect it to get its first test here with Miami coming in brimming with confidence following last week's come-from-behind victory in Baltimore. We won with the 'over' in both of these teams' games last week and I won't hesitate to go back to the well here. Buffalo knows how to play only one way on offense and that's fast. The Bills are well-positioned to pace this affair as well with WR Gabriel Davis likely to return and Stefon Diggs coming off an explosive performance against the Titans and likely to eat against Dolphins top corner Xavien Howard, who is nursing a groin injury. The Bills have injury concerns of their own on defense. Already down Tre'Davious White, they've got several key cogs banged-up and questionable to play this Sunday (although I do expect all of them to suit up, they won't be 100% healthy) in Micah Hyde, Jordan Poyer and Jordan Phillips. Last week we saw Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel scheme up another masterful offensive gameplan to exploit the Ravens defensive weaknesses at the back-end (due to injury as well). He should be comfortable teeing up Tua Tagovailoa and the dynamic WR duo of Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill again in this one given the state of the Bills defense playing on a short week. Miami's ground game has been an afterthought through two weeks and it should remain that way here given the Bills stout nature defending the run (although the possible absence of Phillips would downgrade that run defense). I'll resist the temptation to go the contrarian route and stick with the 'over' with these two teams for one more week. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
09-25-22 | Chiefs v. Colts +5.5 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 47 h 38 m | Show |
Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Indianapolis plus the points over Kansas City at 1 pm et on Sunday. While the Colts have looked down-trodden through the first two weeks of the season, I'm willing to give them a pass to some extent as they finally get their home-opener against the Chiefs on Sunday. Indianapolis actually moved the football at will in its season-opening 20-20 tie in Houston. Of course, there's a chance that the Texans are a better team than most expected after they gave the Broncos everything they could handle in Denver last Sunday. Speaking of last Sunday, the Colts were crushed by a 24-0 score in Jacksonville (we won with the Jaguars in that game). That upset loss was somewhat predictable given the team's struggles in Jacksonville over the years. Here, I believe Indianapolis is much better-positioned as the 'hunter' rather than the 'hunted' at home against the 2-0 Chiefs. Keep in mind, Colts head coach Frank Reich schemed up a 19-13 victory at Arrowhead Stadium the last time these two teams met in 2019. On that occasion, the Colts were led by Jacoby Brissett at quarterback and Marlon Mack in the backfield. RB Nyheim Hines led the team in receiving on that night (he should play a key factor in Sunday's game as well). Similarly, Colts QB Matt Ryan last faced the Chiefs in December of 2020 and found considerable success, completing 27-of-35 passes for 300 yards and two touchdowns in a narrow 19-16 loss (playing for a 4-11 Falcons team at the time). Note that Ryan is likely to get some help after working with a severely undermanned wide receiving corps last Sunday with Michael Pittman Jr. and Alec Pierce both having practised all week. On the defensive side of the ball, the Colts are in desperate need of a boost and should have Shaq Leonard back in the fold after he also practised all week. It remains to be seen whether Leonard will be full go should he play but his mere presence would give the Colts an emotional lift at the very least. I've said little about the Chiefs. They're obviously playing well but you would have to go back to 2019 to find the last time they opened a season winning their first two road games by more than a field goal, which they're being asked to do given the pointspread this week. Here, we'll note that the Colts are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games as a home underdog of between 3.5 and 7 points, outscored by just 0.3 points on average in that situation. They've also gone 10-2 ATS when coming off a division game over the last 2+ seasons, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 7.1 points in that spot. Take Indianapolis (10*). |
|||||||
09-24-22 | Buffalo +4.5 v. Eastern Michigan | Top | 50-31 | Win | 100 | 122 h 9 m | Show |
MAC Game of the Month. My selection is on Buffalo plus the points over Eastern Michigan at 12 noon et on Saturday. We won with Buffalo plus the points in its tough road loss against Coastal Carolina last Saturday as it fell to 0-3 on the season. The Bulls have certainly faced a tough early schedule with games against Maryland and aforementioned CCU on the road and Holy Cross, a top FCS squad, at home. Here, I look for the Bulls to give Eastern Michigan all it can handle, noting that the Eagles are coming off their biggest victory in years, 30-21 on the road against Arizona State last Saturday (we cashed our free play on the 'under' in that game). EMU pulled off that stunning upset victory thanks to 259 rushing yards from RB Samson Evans. I'm chalking that up as an outlier performance as Evans had been held to just 108 yards on 25 carries in the first two games this season. The strength of the Bulls defense is at the linebacker position and I'm confident they can keep Evans under wraps on Saturday. Note that EMU lost QB Taylor Powell to a shoulder injury in last Saturday's win. He's questionable to play this week. If he can't go, it will be Austin Smith under center. He's more of a dual-threat than Powell but I believe Buffalo matches up better against that type of quarterback with their athleticism on defense. Bulls QB Cole Snyder has been under duress for much of the season so far but has held up relatively well. Note that EMU hasn't shown any semblance of a pass rush with just one sack through three games. In a game that I feel will be played closer to the vest than expected (I feel the posted total has been set too high as well), I'll grab all the points I can get with the underdog Bulls. Take Buffalo (10*). |
|||||||
09-24-22 | Maryland v. Michigan UNDER 63 | Top | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 99 h 56 m | Show |
Big Ten Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Maryland and Michigan at 12 noon et on Saturday. We won with the 'over' in Michigan's 59-0 rout of an overmatched Connecticut squad last Saturday. Of course, we needed all 59 points from the Wolverines to get there. I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the 'under' as Michigan gets its first true test of the season against Maryland on Saturday at the Big House. Maryland is off to a 3-0 start following last week's fourth quarter rally against a quality SMU squad. The Terps offense has been humming along, scoring 31, 56 and 34 points through its first three games. We saw a similar story unfold last year with Maryland running up the score against the opponents it should but struggling when the competition stiffened up. Michigan may not have the flashy defense of 2021 with Aidan Hutchinson and David Ojabo having moved on to the NFL, but there's a chance this Wolverines 'D' could be even better. While they've yet to face a true test, I've come away impressed by the way they've completely stifled their first three opponents. In fact they've yet to allow a single first half point with the only two opponents that managed to score on them doing so long after the outcome was already decided. Offensively, the Wolverines, like the Terps, have benefited from facing three relatively weak defensive opponents. I can't help but feel that this Michigan offense, under the guidance of first-year starting QB J.J. McCarthy, is built to methodically drive down the field and wear down opposing defenses with a steady mix of run and pass rather than come up with a ton of splash plays. Note that the Terps didn't allow a touchdown until the first minute of the second quarter against a terrific SMU offense last week. After giving up a touchdown with less than seven minutes remaining in the third quarter, putting it behind 27-20, Maryland posted a shutout the rest of the way, scoring a pair of touchdowns of its own to secure the 34-27 victory over the Mustangs. Prior to that, the Terps had allowed four touchdowns through their first two games although you can take three of those with a grain of salt as they came in a 'defense-optional' rout of Charlotte, which plays as loose as any team in FBS. Michigan crushed Maryland by a 59-18 score in last year's matchup (note that game saw a closing total of 58 so we're dealing with a considerable adjustment here) so you can be sure the Terps gameplan here will involve possessing the football for extended stretches in an effort to effectively shorten the game and limit Michigan's opportunities on offense. On the flip side, I think we'll see Maryland play it fairly safe defensively, allowing Michigan to churn out long scoring drives that ultimately eat the clock and help our cause with the 'under'. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
09-23-22 | Nevada v. Air Force -24 | Top | 20-48 | Win | 100 | 107 h 41 m | Show |
Mountain West Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Air Force minus the points over Nevada at 8 pm et on Friday. We won fading Air Force last Friday night as the Falcons lost outright as a double-digit favorite in a tough setting in Laramie, Wyoming. Here, I won't hesitate to switch gears and back Air Force (we won with the Falcons just two games back against Colorado) as it returns to Colorado Springs to host a disjointed Nevada squad. The Wolf Pack are an even 2-2 to start the season but their outlook is by no means promising. We won with the 'under' in their season-opening 23-12 win on the road against a bad New Mexico State squad in Week 0 but even in that victory there was reason for concern. Nevada didn't score until nearly five minutes into the second quarter and after reaching the end zone with less than a minute remaining in the first half, it failed to record another touchdown in the game's final 30 minutes. After routing a weak Texas State squad the next week, the Wolf Pack got absolutely throttled by FCS squad Incarnate Word 55-41. That final score was actually flattering for the Wolf Pack as Incarnate Word led 55-27 before allowing a couple of late scores. Shane Illingworth took over at quarterback against Iowa last Saturday and proceeded to complete just 14-of-28 passes for 82 yards. Without a dominant offensive line or ground attack, there's just little for this Wolf Pack offense to hang its hat on nearly a month into the season. Defensively, Nevada allowed a punchless Iowa attack to score a pair of first quarter touchdowns last week and again, we learned a lot about this unit in that game against Incarnate Word (the Cardinals scored four offensive touchdowns in the game's first 36 minutes). Air Force will obviously be in a foul mood off last week's defeat and the Falcons are well-positioned to bounce back here at home where they're 2-0 on the campaign, registering 48-17 and 41-10 victories. The last time we saw them here they held Colorado off the scoreboard until just over four minutes into the second quarter and then didn't allow another touchdown the rest of the way. Credit Wyoming's defense for bottling up the Falcons option-based offense last week but I don't expect Nevada to do the same, noting that AFA scored 41 points in a wild victory over the Wolf Pack last November. Take Air Force (10*). |
|||||||
09-23-22 | Hamilton v. Montreal UNDER 52.5 | Top | 16-23 | Win | 100 | 33 h 17 m | Show |
CFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Hamilton and Montreal at 7:30 pm et on Friday. We won with the 'over' the last time these two teams met back on August 20th. We're dealing with a considerably higher posted total this time around. I believe it will prove too high. The Tiger-Cats are fresh off a wild 48-31 upset win over the Blue Bombers last week. Chalk up that offensive explosion as an anomaly as they had been held to 25 points or less in eight of their last 10 games previously and just 56 points combined over their last three contests. The Alouettes delivered their best defensive performance of the season last time out, posting a 31-10 victory over the B.C. Lions before their bye week. It's important to note that the Ti-Cats win last week was boosted by three Winnipeg turnovers, noting that Hamilton actually gained 'only' 97 yards rushing and 327 yards passing despite an ultra-efficient 25-of-32 game through the air. Hamilton has now gone four straight games without rushing for 100+ yards as a team. One-dimensional offenses don't tend to enjoy sustained success in the CFL. Speaking of one-dimensional, the Als aerial attack has been sputtering as they've completed 22 or fewer passes while throwing for 256 yards or less in four of their last five contests. Noting that the Ti-Cats have allowed completions on just 64-of-100 passes while forcing six turnovers over the last three games, Montreal will probably be looking to stay run-centric here. Note that the 'under' is a long-term 147-112 with the Ti-Cats seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent, as is the case here, with that spot producing an average total of 51.1 points. Better still, the 'under' is a perfect 7-0 the last seven times Hamilton has played on the road following a non-division game, which is also the situation here, leading to an average total of only 36.5 points. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
09-23-22 | Cubs v. Pirates OVER 8 | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
N.L. Central Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Pittsburgh at 6:35 pm et on Friday. We saw a low-scoring game to open this series last night as the Cubs delivered their third straight victory while handing the Pirates their seventh consecutive defeat. Here, I'm anticipating a higher-scoring contest as dictated by the poor starting pitching matchup. The book is already out on Cubs rookie Javier Assad and it's not a good one. Assad has been touched up for nine earned runs on 12 hits and eight walks, not to mention three home runs over his last three starts, covering a span of just 13 1/3 innings. While the Pirates bats have been quiet, we know they're capable of outlier performances as they just hung eight runs on the Yankees three nights ago. Bryse Wilson gets another turn in the Buccos rotation out of necessity only. He's been awful this year, posting a 6.72 ERA and 1.57 WHIP. Over his last three outings, those numbers rise to 7.67 and 1.67, respectively. To make matters worse, the Cubs will be seeing Wilson for the third time this season having already plated six earned runs in nine innings against him. They also faced him twice last season, scoring six earned runs in eight innings. You get the picture. Even if the starters do manage to pull rabbits out of their hat in this one, we have the potential for late runs with a Pirates bullpen that has recorded a collective 9.00 ERA and 2.09 WHIP over the last seven games and a Cubs 'pen that has posted a 4.54 ERA and 1.40 WHIP with 13 blown saves on the road this season. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
09-23-22 | Montenegro v. Bosnia & Herzegovina UNDER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 51 m | Show |
Nations League Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Bosnia & Herzegovina and Montenegro at 2:45 pm et on Friday. I really like the way this one sets up as a tightly-contested, relatively low-scoring affair as the top two teams in League B, Group 3 do battle in Zenica on Friday. Through four matches, these are the only two squads in the group to have posted positive goal differentials. Note that we saw Bosnia and Montenegro match up back in early June, resulting in a 1-1 draw. Note that Bosnia enters this match having gone undefeated across its last five contests and will of course have the benefit of hosting this one. More importantly, it has seen seven of its last eight matches stay 'under' 2.5 total goals. It's a similar story for Montenegro as four of its last five contests have totalled two goals or less. Dzeko is certainly a big-time scoring threat up front for Bosnia but I like the setup of the Montenegro defense with Vucacic and Vesovic in excellent form and goalkeeper Milan Mijatovic having recorded a clean sheet in his most recent international match, a 3-0 win in earlier Nations League play against Romania. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
09-22-22 | Steelers v. Browns -4.5 | Top | 17-29 | Win | 100 | 31 h 10 m | Show |
TNF Game of the Month. My selection is on Cleveland first half minus the points over Pittsburgh at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. The Browns are coming off an absolutely gut-wrenching home loss to the Jets in a game they led by two touchdowns with just two minutes remaining. It took an incredible series of events for New York to overcome that late deficit and steal a road win. I think the best thing for the Browns is to get right back on the field on a short week, and I'm confident backing them in the first half now that we know Joel Bitonio, Myles Garrett and Jack Conklin are all expected to play (as of Wednesday). The Steelers have looked unimpressive and it's only a matter of time before QB Mitchell Trubisky is supplanted by rookie Kenny Pickett. In fact, I believe the move is probably coming sooner rather than later, another reason why I prefer to back the Browns in the first half only in this one. Should things go south early on there's always the possibility (albeit small given Mike Tomlin's track record) that Pickett enters this game at some point and gives Pittsburgh a boost. The Steelers want to run Najee Harris as the focal point of their offense but he's dealing with multiple injuries and that doesn't bode well as he plays on a short week. While the presence of Browns pressure magnet QB Jacoby Brissett does give me some pause, I expect the Browns to go run-heavy as usual and they should be able to bully the Steelers in the trenches on both sides of the football. Here, we'll note that the Steelers are just 3-11 ATS in the first half when playing on six days or less of rest over the last two seasons, outscored by 6.9 points on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Browns are 12-2 ATS in the first half in their last 14 Thursday games, outscoring opponents by 3.8 points on average. Take Cleveland first half (10*). |
|||||||
09-22-22 | Coastal Carolina v. Georgia State UNDER 64 | Top | 41-24 | Loss | -110 | 83 h 41 m | Show |
Sun Belt Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Coastal Carolina and Georgia State at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams are coming off wild games last Saturday with Coastal Carolina recording a 38-26 victory over Buffalo (we won with Buffalo plus the points) and Georgia State falling by a 42-41 score against Charlotte. Last year we saw a closing total of 53 points for this same matchup but the game ended up reaching a whopping 82 points in a Georgia State upset victory. So here we're dealing with a considerably higher total - I believe it will prove to be too high. I can't imagine either team is all that interested in getting involved in another track meet here, playing on a short week off such draining contests just five days previous. Note that while Coastal Carolina did allow 26 points against Buffalo, it actually held the Bulls out of the end zone until the final minute of the first half and didn't give up another touchdown until there were less than six minutes left in the fourth quarter. The final score in that contest was ultimately inflated by a Buffalo defensive breakdown with just over three minutes remaining as Coastal Carolina was just trying to get a couple of first downs and burn out the clock (the Chanticleers scored a 59-yard touchdown). Prior to that contest, Coastal Carolina held FCS squad Gardner-Webb out of the end zone for the first 27 minutes and in its season-opener limited a tough Army offense to 28 points in a game where a few defensive breakdowns (to be expected facing Army's triple-option in Week 1) led to three long touchdowns. The Chanticleers enter this game on a short week with a trio of running backs banged-up. To effectively shorten this game would certainly work in their favor knowing just how explosive the Georgia State offense can be. The Panthers are still winless through three games but they've been competitive in their last two contests against North Carolina and Charlotte. After jumping ahead early in last week's game against Charlotte, the Panthers had a fumble returned for a touchdown which really turned the tide in the game, which ultimately turned into a shootout (to be expected against the 49ers' explosive offense and sieve-like defense). Two games back, the Georgia State offense couldn't stay on the field in the first half, leaving the defense gassed against a high-octane North Carolina offense. The Panthers did go a 23-minute stretch without allowing a touchdown in that contest. In their season-opener, they limited South Carolina to only two offensive touchdowns in a game that was scoreless until the second minute of the second quarter. My point being, the Panthers defense is better than it has showed on the scoreboard through three games and will certainly be amped up to face former teammate, WR Sam Pinckney who transferred to Coastal Carolina after last season. Keep in mind, this is an experienced Panthers defense (with seven returning starters) that held six of eight Sun Belt Conference opponents to 21 points or less last season. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
09-21-22 | Giants v. Rockies +124 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 35 m | Show |
N.L. Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Colorado over San Francisco at 8:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Giants have taken the first two games in this series but I look for the Rockies to answer back on Wednesday. Logan Webb carries a reputation as a front-of-the-rotation starter for San Francisco but he's looked anything but the part lately, lasting six innings or more only twice in his last six starts, failing to make it through the fifth inning in three of those outings. The Rockies have already seen him (and beat him) twice this season, scoring five earned runs on 11 hits in 12 2/3 innings. Note that Webb has recorded more than six strikeouts just once in eight career starts against Colorado. German Marquez will take the ball for the Rockies. He's faced San Francisco once this season, holding it to three earned runs over six innings in a 5-3 win as a +225 underdog back on June 7th. For as poorly as the veteran right-hander has pitched at times this season, the Rockies bats do tend to come alive for him, noting that they've won nine of his 15 home outings here in 2022. Marquez actually brings his best form of the season into this start having lasted seven innings and allowed two earned runs or less in three of his last four trips to the hill. While the Giants are technically still alive in the N.L. Wild Card race, the reality is they're not going to make it as they sit 9.5 games back of the third and final spot. Despite losing the first two games in this series, the Rockies have been battling, going 7-5 over their last 12 contests. Take Colorado (10*). |
|||||||
09-21-22 | Ukraine v. Scotland | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 31 h 0 m | Show |
Nations League Game of the Month. My selection is on Ukraine pk over Scotland at 2:45 pm et on Wednesday. While things are anything but normal back home, many Ukrainian players have at least gained some return to 'normalcy' with the return of league play and now they have the opportunity to once again play for their country in another key Nations League fixture on Wednesday in Glasgow. Ukraine has gone undefeated across its last three matches since suffering a bitter 1-0 defeat against Wales to miss out on World Cup qualification. Note that it has managed to strike first in seven of its last nine matches across all competitions and now faces a Scottish side that has played far too loose with four of its last five matches going 'over' 2.5 total goals. I say it has played too loose as it simply doesn't have the offensive firepower to consistently prevail in relatively high-scoring affairs. I like Ukraine's move to Andriy Lunin between the sticks. He is a Real Madrid man even if he hasn't had much opportunity with the Spanish side to this point. No Zinchenko for Ukraine on Wednesday but it still boasts a first class side with Yaremchuk, Yarmolenko and Mudryk, who has performed well for Shakhtar Donetsk recently. While Scotland is always a tough out in Glasgow, I do expect Ukraine to rise to the occasion here, noting that it currently sits just a single point ahead of the Scots atop the Group 1 standings with a return match on deck in Krakow. Take Ukraine pk (10*). |
|||||||
09-20-22 | Astros v. Rays OVER 6.5 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
A.L. Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Tampa Bay at 6:40 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a predictably low-scoring game between these two teams to open this series last night as two underrated starters went head-to-head in Luis Garcia and Drew Rasmussen. Here, I think the pendulum swings the other way as we have perhaps two overrated (I use that term in a relative sense) starters in Cristian Javier and Shane McClanahan taking the hill. Note that we haven't seen consecutive meetings between these two teams stay 'under' seven total runs since back in the 2020 postseason. Javier enters this start after tossing six shutout innings last time out but that performance came against the light-hitting Tigers. Prior to that he had given up a home run in three straight starts, walking six in 16 1/3 innings over that stretch. The Rays saw Javier once previously, that coming last season as they chased him after scoring three earned runs in five innings in a 5-4 victory. McClanahan hasn't allowed an earned run in his last two starts - the first time he's accomplished that feat all season. I'm not convinced he's had his best stuff lately, noting that he hasn't recorded double-digit strikeouts in a start since way back on July 2nd after doing so four times in a 12-start stretch at that time. Note that six of McClanahan's last seven starts have gone 'over' 6.5 total runs. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
09-19-22 | Vikings v. Eagles -2 | Top | 7-24 | Win | 100 | 23 h 60 m | Show |
MNF Game of the Year. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Minnesota at 8:30 pm et on Monday. The Vikings blew out the perennial NFC North front-running Packers last week while the Eagles held on for a three-point victory over the Lions in a game that wasn't nearly as close as the final score indicated. While many are high on the Vikings and believe they can contend for an NFC North title this season, I'm not of that same opinion. Yes, I like some of the pieces they have in place, namely RB Dalvin Cook and WR Justin Jefferson but this is a team that has its share of flaws, particularly on the defensive side of the football. The Eagles mean business this year - that was evident when they went out and got WR A.J. Brown and even CB C.J. Gardner-Johnson just prior to start of the season. QB Jalen Hurts has already shown tremendous chemistry with Brown. I'm also anticipating a jump in production in second-year wideout DeVonta Smith this year. Then you have underrated RB Miles Sanders running behind one of the league's best offensive lines. Needless to say, the Eagles offense should be a handful for the Vikings on Monday. While Justin Jefferson is an elite, arguably unstoppable wide receiver, the Eagles do have plenty of bodies to throw at him. With veteran Adam Thielen on the decline, Jefferson is going to continue to get considerable attention from opposing defenses. I'm not convinced the Vikings are well-suited to play from behind, which I expect them to be doing for much of Monday's contest. Note that the Eagles have outscored opponents by an average margin of 6.0 points the last 68 times they've played at home after scoring 30+ points in a game, as is the case here. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
|||||||
09-19-22 | Titans v. Bills OVER 47.5 | Top | 7-41 | Win | 100 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
AFC Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Tennessee and Buffalo at 7:15 pm et on Monday. We missed with the 'over' in the Bills season-opening blowout win over the Rams in Week 1. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as we're dealing with a lower posted total, albeit against a weaker offensive opponent than they saw last week (the Titans can't perform much worse offensively than the Rams did in the opener). I can't help but feel that the Bills are bound to get involved in some shootouts until they get healthier on defense. Already without CB Tre'Davious White they'll be missing DT Ed Oliver and possibly DT Tim Settle as well on Monday with the latter two opening the door for a big game for Titans RB Derrick Henry. QB Ryan Tannehill may not appear to have many weapons at his disposal on paper but I liked what I saw from rookie WR Treylon Burks last week and guys like Nick Westbrook-Ikhine and Robert Woods are capable wideouts as well. There's little I need to say that hasn't already been said about the Bills offense. They're one of the elite units in the league and will catch the Titans missing a couple of key cogs defensively with CB Kristian Fulton and DT Da'Shawn Hand forced to miss time. The Bills do have their own injury concern on offense with WR Gabriel Davis listed as questionable after suffering an ankle injury in practice. Even if he can't go, I still expect the Bills to go off against a very beatable Titans defense. Note that the 'over' is 18-7 with the Bills coming off a win over the last 2+ seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 53.6 points in that situation. The 'over' has also cashed in nine of Buffalo's last 11 games after allowing 14 points or less in its previous contest. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
09-19-22 | Mariners -1.5 v. Angels | Top | 9-1 | Win | 120 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
A.L. West Game of the Month. My selection is on Seattle -1.5 runs over Los Angeles at 4:05 pm et on Monday. The Mariners have inexplicably dropped the first three games of this series and while the Angels would like nothing better than to play spoiler against their division rivals in Monday afternoon's series-finale, I expect Seattle to have other ideas. The Mariners have the right pitcher on the mound to stem the tide in Logan Gilbert. He's arguably been their best starter all season, checking in with a 3.46 FIP and 1.21 WHIP while holding opponents to just under 3.5 runs per nine innings. Note that the Mariners are 4-1 in Gilbert's five career outings against the Angels with three of those wins coming by at least two runs. Jose Suarez will counter for Los Angeles. He owns a 4.02 FIP and 1.28 WHIP while yielding north of 3.9 runs per nine innings. The Mariners chased him after 5 1/3 innings in an 8-2 win here in Anaheim back on August 16th. While things have gone well for the Angels in this series, their bullpen still entered yesterday's action sporting a 6.29 ERA and 1.60 WHIP over the last seven games. The Mariners 'pen went into Sunday's contest with a 3.56 ERA and 1.17 WHIP with 20 saves converted and only six blown on the road this season. Take Seattle -1.5 runs (10*). |
|||||||
09-18-22 | Seahawks v. 49ers -9 | Top | 7-27 | Win | 100 | 25 h 28 m | Show |
NFC West Game of the Year. My selection is on San Francisco minus the points over Seattle at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. This is a smash spot for the 49ers as they return home following last week's ugly loss in Chicago to host the Seahawks, playing on a short week following Monday's emotionally-thrilling but draining win over Russell Wilson and the Broncos. Seattle victory on Monday had more to do with Denver miscues than anything else. Credit the Seahawks to getting off to a strong start in that game, jumping ahead 7-0 on their first drive and never really looking back from there. This game figures to feature a much different game script as the 49ers should be able to impose their will on both sides of the football. Trey Lance critics have been out in full force this week. It's unfair really as few quarterbacks would have been able to find much success in last Sunday's miserable weather (and field) conditions in Chicago. I anticipate Lance looking much more comfortable back at home this Sunday and with a strong performance should stave off calls for Jimmy G for at least one more week. We're always looking to fade teams off emotional highs early in the season and that's certainly the case with the Seahawks - a team that likely experienced their 'Super Bowl' on Monday night. Expect Geno Smith to be brought back to Earth by the 49ers vaunted defensive front at Levi's Stadium on Sunday afternoon, noting that the 49ers are 23-7 ATS the last 30 times they've come off an outright loss as a road favorite, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 13.8 points in that situation. Take San Francisco (10*). |
|||||||
09-18-22 | Colts v. Jaguars +3 | Top | 0-24 | Win | 100 | 22 h 4 m | Show |
My selection is on Jacksonville plus the points over Indianapolis at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Colts are in tough due to injuries on Sunday afternoon as they'll be without Shaquille Leonard and Michael Pittman Jr., among others. This was already going to be a tough spot for Indianapolis as it comes off a highly-disappointing tie on the road against Houston last Sunday. The Jags didn't look great in a season-opening loss in Washington but I do think we'll see gradual improvement from them on both sides of the football under new head coach Doug Pederson. Here, in their home opener there's reason for optimism as they face a depleted Colts squad that is ripe for the picking in Week 2. Already severely limited with his supporting cast, the absence of Pittman looms large over the Colts offense led by Matt Ryan. Yes, Jonathan Taylor is capable of shouldering even more of the load but you can be sure the Jags will be stacking the box to bottle him up. Taylor is a much better running back playing from ahead than behind (as are most backs) and I expect that to be evident on Sunday afternoon. Take Jacksonville (8*). |
|||||||
09-18-22 | Patriots -2.5 v. Steelers | Top | 17-14 | Win | 100 | 22 h 32 m | Show |
AFC Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on New England minus the points over Pittsburgh at 1 pm et on Sunday. With T.J. Watt sidelined and Najee Harris severely banged-up the Steelers just don't have a lot of redeeming qualities as they return home off last Sunday's stunning upset win over the defending AFC champion Bengals in Cincinnati. Credit the Steelers for gutting out a win in that overtime game but let's face it, the result was gift-wrapped by the Bengals, who looked completely out of sorts on both sides of the football. Here, the Steelers have the benefit of returning home but do so against a Patriots squad that has a foul taste in its mouth off last Sunday's divisional road loss in Miami. Whiel the Pats offense certainly has plenty of warts, I don't think it is as bad as it is being made out to be. Xavien Howard blanketed Devante Parker in last Sunday's game and Mac Jones struggled to find consistent options to pass to and the ground game wasn't able to thrive trailing for much of the contest. I expect a different story to unfold here as the Patriots defense and ground attack comes up big against a Steelers squad that quite simply doesn't match up well on either side of the football. Pittsburgh's offensive line is still a mess and I have little faith in QB Mitchell Trubisky holding down the starting job for more than the first few games this season. Defensively, T.J. Watt is the Steelers engine and his absence can't be understated. The Pittsburgh secondary came up big last Sunday but that had a lot to do with Watt pressuring Joe Burrow into ill-advised throws. Both of these teams probably deserve to be 1-1 through two weeks and I'm confident that's how it will play out. Take New England (10*). |
Register for an Account Now for Free Picks and More Special Offers!
Sean Murphy ALL Sports Top Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
10-29-22 | Ohio State v. Penn State UNDER 61.5 | Top | 44-31 | Loss | -110 | 119 h 3 m | Show |
10-28-22 | Rockets +5.5 v. Blazers | Top | 111-125 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 13 m | Show |
10-28-22 | Penguins v. Canucks +140 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 140 | 15 h 38 m | Show |
10-28-22 | East Carolina v. BYU UNDER 61.5 | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 105 h 2 m | Show |
10-27-22 | Heat v. Warriors UNDER 226 | Top | 110-123 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 8 m | Show |
10-27-22 | UL-Lafayette v. Southern Miss | Top | 24-39 | Loss | -110 | 82 h 32 m | Show |
10-27-22 | Canadiens v. Sabres UNDER 6.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 105 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
10-26-22 | Rockets v. Jazz -5.5 | Top | 101-109 | Win | 100 | 13 h 5 m | Show |
10-26-22 | 76ers v. Raptors UNDER 215.5 | Top | 109-119 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
10-25-22 | Golden Knights v. Sharks UNDER 6.5 | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 26 m | Show |
10-24-22 | Nuggets v. Blazers UNDER 227.5 | Top | 110-135 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 36 m | Show |
10-24-22 | Bears v. Patriots -8 | Top | 33-14 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 37 m | Show |
10-23-22 | Suns v. Clippers UNDER 220 | Top | 112-95 | Win | 100 | 16 h 36 m | Show |
10-23-22 | Steelers v. Dolphins OVER 44.5 | Top | 10-16 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 8 m | Show |
10-23-22 | Blue Jackets v. Rangers -1.5 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 30 m | Show |
10-23-22 | Jets v. Broncos +1 | Top | 16-9 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 24 m | Show |
10-23-22 | Falcons v. Bengals OVER 47 | Top | 17-35 | Win | 100 | 51 h 4 m | Show |
10-23-22 | Browns v. Ravens OVER 45.5 | Top | 20-23 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 55 m | Show |
10-22-22 | Thunder +7.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 117-122 | Win | 100 | 14 h 15 m | Show |
10-22-22 | UCLA v. Oregon OVER 69.5 | Top | 30-45 | Win | 100 | 95 h 28 m | Show |
10-22-22 | Rice v. Louisiana Tech +3.5 | Top | 42-41 | Win | 100 | 96 h 3 m | Show |
10-21-22 | Red Wings v. Blackhawks UNDER 6.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 3 m | Show |
10-21-22 | Bulls v. Wizards +1 | Top | 100-102 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
10-21-22 | Ottawa v. Hamilton -6 | Top | 27-30 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 20 m | Show |
10-20-22 | Hurricanes v. Oilers -110 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
10-20-22 | Saints v. Cardinals UNDER 44 | Top | 34-42 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
10-20-22 | Virginia v. Georgia Tech UNDER 47.5 | Top | 16-9 | Win | 100 | 56 h 29 m | Show |
10-20-22 | Bucks v. 76ers UNDER 225.5 | Top | 90-88 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
10-19-22 | Blazers v. Kings -1.5 | Top | 115-108 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 57 m | Show |
10-18-22 | Kings v. Predators -147 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -147 | 15 h 10 m | Show |
10-18-22 | 76ers v. Celtics -2 | Top | 117-126 | Win | 100 | 34 h 50 m | Show |
10-16-22 | Cowboys v. Eagles -6 | Top | 17-26 | Win | 100 | 36 h 36 m | Show |
10-16-22 | Cowboys v. Eagles UNDER 42.5 | Top | 17-26 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 19 m | Show |
10-16-22 | Jaguars +2.5 v. Colts | Top | 27-34 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 1 m | Show |
10-15-22 | Mississippi State v. Kentucky UNDER 49 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 33 h 50 m | Show |
10-15-22 | Oklahoma State v. TCU UNDER 69.5 | Top | 40-43 | Loss | -115 | 97 h 1 m | Show |
10-14-22 | Navy v. SMU UNDER 57.5 | Top | 34-40 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
10-14-22 | Montreal -3.5 v. Ottawa | Top | 34-30 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
10-14-22 | Guardians v. Yankees OVER 6 | Top | 4-2 | Push | 0 | 23 h 18 m | Show |
10-13-22 | Washington Commanders v. Bears | Top | 12-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
10-13-22 | Temple +23.5 v. Central Florida | Top | 13-70 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 58 m | Show |
10-12-22 | UL-Lafayette v. Marshall UNDER 47.5 | Top | 23-13 | Win | 100 | 31 h 10 m | Show |
10-12-22 | Phillies v. Braves -135 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
10-12-22 | Blue Jackets v. Hurricanes OVER 6 | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
10-11-22 | Golden Knights v. Kings OVER 5.5 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 15 h 41 m | Show |
10-10-22 | Raiders +7 v. Chiefs | Top | 29-30 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
10-10-22 | Ottawa v. Montreal UNDER 47.5 | Top | 24-18 | Win | 100 | 4 h 26 m | Show |
10-09-22 | Falcons v. Bucs -9.5 | Top | 15-21 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 28 m | Show |
10-09-22 | Seahawks v. Saints UNDER 46 | Top | 32-39 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 36 m | Show |
10-09-22 | Bears v. Vikings OVER 44 | Top | 22-29 | Win | 100 | 47 h 56 m | Show |
10-08-22 | Air Force -10 v. Utah State | Top | 27-34 | Loss | -110 | 79 h 40 m | Show |
10-08-22 | Mariners v. Blue Jays -150 | Top | 10-9 | Loss | -150 | 8 h 47 m | Show |
10-08-22 | Utah v. UCLA UNDER 64.5 | Top | 32-42 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 33 m | Show |
10-08-22 | Tennessee v. LSU OVER 61.5 | Top | 40-13 | Loss | -110 | 121 h 11 m | Show |
10-08-22 | TCU -6.5 v. Kansas | Top | 38-31 | Win | 100 | 29 h 32 m | Show |
10-07-22 | UNLV v. San Jose State UNDER 50.5 | Top | 7-40 | Win | 100 | 108 h 25 m | Show |
10-07-22 | Saskatchewan v. Hamilton UNDER 49 | Top | 14-18 | Win | 100 | 36 h 57 m | Show |
10-06-22 | Colts +3.5 v. Broncos | Top | 12-9 | Win | 100 | 80 h 54 m | Show |
10-06-22 | PFC Ludogorets Razgrad v. HJK Helsinki OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 16 m | Show |
10-05-22 | Cubs v. Reds UNDER 8.5 | Top | 15-2 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
10-04-22 | Twins v. White Sox OVER 7 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
10-04-22 | Napoli v. Ajax Amsterdam OVER 3 | Top | 6-1 | Win | 103 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
10-03-22 | Rams v. 49ers UNDER 42.5 | Top | 9-24 | Win | 100 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
10-03-22 | Diamondbacks v. Brewers -1.5 | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
10-02-22 | Bills -3 v. Ravens | Top | 23-20 | Push | 0 | 22 h 46 m | Show |
10-02-22 | Titans v. Colts OVER 43 | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 36 m | Show |
10-01-22 | Georgia State v. Army -7.5 | Top | 31-14 | Loss | -107 | 96 h 22 m | Show |
10-01-22 | Kentucky +7 v. Ole Miss | Top | 19-22 | Win | 100 | 96 h 3 m | Show |
10-01-22 | Texas Tech +8 v. Kansas State | Top | 28-37 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 20 m | Show |
09-30-22 | Washington v. UCLA +3 | Top | 32-40 | Win | 100 | 108 h 59 m | Show |
09-30-22 | San Diego State v. Boise State -5.5 | Top | 13-35 | Win | 100 | 106 h 43 m | Show |
09-30-22 | Saskatchewan v. Winnipeg UNDER 48 | Top | 13-31 | Win | 100 | 57 h 29 m | Show |
09-30-22 | Royals +121 v. Guardians | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
09-30-22 | Tulane v. Houston UNDER 55.5 | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 105 h 4 m | Show |
09-29-22 | Dolphins v. Bengals OVER 47.5 | Top | 15-27 | Loss | -110 | 78 h 16 m | Show |
09-29-22 | Utah State v. BYU -24 | Top | 26-38 | Loss | -110 | 83 h 38 m | Show |
09-28-22 | Orioles v. Red Sox OVER 9 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
09-27-22 | Royals v. Tigers -103 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
09-26-22 | Cowboys +1 v. Giants | Top | 23-16 | Win | 100 | 22 h 24 m | Show |
09-26-22 | Braves v. Nationals OVER 8.5 | Top | 8-0 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
09-25-22 | Falcons +1 v. Seahawks | Top | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 50 h 49 m | Show |
09-25-22 | Bills v. Dolphins OVER 52.5 | Top | 19-21 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 43 m | Show |
09-25-22 | Chiefs v. Colts +5.5 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 47 h 38 m | Show |
09-24-22 | Buffalo +4.5 v. Eastern Michigan | Top | 50-31 | Win | 100 | 122 h 9 m | Show |
09-24-22 | Maryland v. Michigan UNDER 63 | Top | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 99 h 56 m | Show |
09-23-22 | Nevada v. Air Force -24 | Top | 20-48 | Win | 100 | 107 h 41 m | Show |
09-23-22 | Hamilton v. Montreal UNDER 52.5 | Top | 16-23 | Win | 100 | 33 h 17 m | Show |
09-23-22 | Cubs v. Pirates OVER 8 | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
09-23-22 | Montenegro v. Bosnia & Herzegovina UNDER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 51 m | Show |
09-22-22 | Steelers v. Browns -4.5 | Top | 17-29 | Win | 100 | 31 h 10 m | Show |
09-22-22 | Coastal Carolina v. Georgia State UNDER 64 | Top | 41-24 | Loss | -110 | 83 h 41 m | Show |
09-21-22 | Giants v. Rockies +124 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 35 m | Show |
09-21-22 | Ukraine v. Scotland | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 31 h 0 m | Show |
09-20-22 | Astros v. Rays OVER 6.5 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
09-19-22 | Vikings v. Eagles -2 | Top | 7-24 | Win | 100 | 23 h 60 m | Show |
09-19-22 | Titans v. Bills OVER 47.5 | Top | 7-41 | Win | 100 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
09-19-22 | Mariners -1.5 v. Angels | Top | 9-1 | Win | 120 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
09-18-22 | Seahawks v. 49ers -9 | Top | 7-27 | Win | 100 | 25 h 28 m | Show |
09-18-22 | Colts v. Jaguars +3 | Top | 0-24 | Win | 100 | 22 h 4 m | Show |
09-18-22 | Patriots -2.5 v. Steelers | Top | 17-14 | Win | 100 | 22 h 32 m | Show |