Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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07-07-22 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
N.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Colorado and Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Thursday. I think the quiet nature of the Rockies bats over the course of a three-game series in Los Angeles may have lulled 'under' bettors into a false sense of security entering the opener of this four-game set in Arizona. We just saw this same starting pitching matchup between Austin Gomber and Dallas Keuchel last week and the rest was an 11-7 Rockies victory. I'm anticipating another relatively high-scoring affair here. While the Rockies bats have been slumbering, this should be an ideal breakout spot noting they're actually a .500 team against left-handed starting pitching this season, averaging 5.4 runs per game (that's 0.9 rpg higher than their season average). Keuchel has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball this season, posting a 5.75 FIP and 2.11 WHIP in 41 1/3 innings of work split between Chicago (White Sox) and Arizona. Opponents have torched the veteran left-hander to the tune of 9.58 runs per nine innings. Austin Gomber hasn't been much better for the Rockies, recording a 4.89 FIP and 1.45 WHIP while yielding just shy of 6.8 runs per nine frames. The two bullpens offer little support in this case as the Colorado 'pen has posted a 5.26 ERA and 1.60 WHIP over the last seven games and the D'Backs relief corps owns a 5.87 ERA and 1.57 WHIP over the same stretch. Take the over (10*). |
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07-07-22 | Nationals v. Phillies OVER 10 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
N.L. East Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Philadelphia at 4:05 pm et on Thursday. The Nationals will inexplicably give Joan Adon another turn in the starting rotation on Thursday, his first outing since coincidentally facing the same Phillies back on June 17th. That start didn’t go all that well for Adon as he was tagged for four earned runs on seven hits over five innings. The right-hander enters Thursday’s start sporting an ugly 5.26 FIP and 1.75 WHIP while allowing a whopping 7.27 runs per nine innings this season. Phillies starter Bailey Falter hasn’t been much better, albeit with a smaller sample size. He has recorded a 5.99 FIP and 1.42 WHIP while yielding 6.0 runs per game in 24 innings of work this season. Like Adon, Falter will be making his second start this season against Thursday’s opponent having allowed three earned runs on five hits including two home runs back in June. The presence of the Phillies red hot bullpen is the only thing that would give us some pause with this play, but I think that unit’s recent effectiveness is somewhat negated by the Nats’ awful relief corps which has posted a 6.48 ERA and 1.58 WHIP on the road this season. Take the over (10*). |
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07-06-22 | Mets -161 v. Reds | Top | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
MLB Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on New York over Cincinnati a 6:40 pm et on Wednesday. We missed with the Mets last night as they couldn't muster any offense in Max Scherzer's return to the rotation, losing that game by a 1-0 score in walk-off fashion. They'll bounce back on Wednesday as they hand the ball to a rejuvenated David Peterson. The fact that New York is sending a left-handed starter to the hill is notable as the Reds have gone a woeful 7-16 against southpaws this season, including six consecutive losses heading into this one. Peterson has righted the ship after a rocky start to his campaign, lowering his FIP to 3.78 and his WHIP to 1.20 thanks to consecutive strong outings. While Peterson has yielded an ugly 3.4 walks per nine innings this season he hasn't handed out a single free pass over his last two starts. Graham Ashcraft will counter for Cincinnati. The books seems to be out on the rookie right-hander as he has struggled mightily over his last several outings (save for a solid performance against the reeling Giants). He owns a 4.15 FIP and 1.24 WHIP on the season, allowing north of 4.5 runs per nine innings. While the Reds bullpen held up well last night, that doesn't change the fact that they've recorded an awful 8.44 ERA and 1.99 WHIP over their last seven games. In stark contrast, the Mets 'pen has posted a 3.47 ERA and 1.29 WHIP over the same stretch. Take New York (10*). |
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07-06-22 | Angels -1.5 v. Marlins | Top | 5-2 | Win | 101 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Game of the Week. My selection is on Los Angeles -1.5 runs over Miami at 6:40 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the Marlins last night but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the Angels, on the run-line, on Wednesday. Los Angeles is struggling right now having lost four games in a row. After getting blown out in the first two of those four losses they've been close in the last two, dropping two and one-run decisions. Here, I expect them to finally get over the hump with Shohei Ohtani on the mound. Ohtani checks in sporting a Cy Young Award-caliber 2.52 FIP and 1.01 WHIP while allowing only 2.68 runs per nine innings. He's been lights out over his last few starts in particular, not allowing a single earned run over those three outings. It's been a much different story for Marlins starter Trevor Rogers. He has posted a 4.75 FIP and 1.59 WHIP while yielding just shy of 6.0 runs per nine frames this season. While the Marlins do have the advantage in the later innings given their bullpen's recent form, I'm not convinced that's enough to make the difference here. Noting that all but one of the Angels 16 road wins this season have come by 2+ runs, I'm comfortable laying the extra run with the Halos on Wednesday. Take Los Angeles -1.5 runs (10*). |
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07-05-22 | Cubs v. Brewers OVER 8.5 | Top | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
N.L. Central Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a low-scoring contest between these two N.L. Central rivals yesterday as the Brewers walked it off in a 5-2 extra innings victory. I expect a different story to unfold on Tuesday as the hitters should have plenty of success in this one. Cubs veteran right-hander Kyle Hendricks has had an up-and-down season, perhaps with more downs than ups. He owns a 4.75 FIP and 1.29 WHIP while allowing just shy of 4.8 runs per nine innings. His counterpart on Tuesday will be Jason Alexander. He's arguably been slightly worse than Hendricks, recording a 4.35 FIP and 1.70 WHIP while giving up 4.7 runs per nine frames. The two bullpens have been serviceable lately but are showing some signs of wear with neither team enjoying an off day since June 27th. The two 'pens have worked 32 and 28 2/3 innings, respectively, over the last seven games with the Cubs relief corps having posted a 3.37 ERA and 1.31 WHIP over that stretch and the Brewers checking in with a 3.45 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. Take the over (10*). |
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07-05-22 | Sun -5 v. Wings | Top | 71-82 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 34 m | Show |
WNBA Game of the Year. My selection is on Connecticut minus the points over Dallas at 8 pm et on Tuesday. While the Sun have won just twice in their last five games, including an narrow two-point victory over Washington last time out, I believe they're on the cusp of going on another run. Connecticut has certainly been 'filling it up' lately, knocking down 31, 27, 32 and 30 field goals over its last four games. Now it draws a favorable matchup against a Dallas defense that has yielded its last two opponents 34 and 37 made field goals (on 76+ attempts). In fact, the Wings have allowed 28+ made field goals in 10 of their last 11 contests. Only one of Connecticut's last five opponents has managed to knock down more than 27 field goals. I like the way the Sun have been limiting their opponents scoring opportunities, allowing fewer than 70 FG attempts in six consecutive games. While Dallas did make good on 33-of-66 FG attempts last time out against Los Angeles, it is just one game removed from shooting a miserable 17-of-59 against a subpar Minnesota defense. Dallas has made 30+ field goals only twice in its last five contests. Dallas snuck away with a victory in Connecticut in the first meeting between these two teams this season but revenge was sweet for the Sun as they won by 31 points two nights later. Here, we'll note that Connecticut is on a 19-6 ATS run against Western Conference opponents, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 8.4 points. Take Connecticut (10*). |
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07-05-22 | Cardinals +130 v. Braves | Top | 1-7 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
N.L. Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on St. Louis over Atlanta at 7:20 pm et on Tuesday. This is undoubtedly the Cardinals best opportunity to steal a win in this series as from here the starting pitching matchups only get tougher with the Braves sending Max Fried and impressive rookie Spencer Strider to the hill the next two days. On Tuesday, St. Louis will hand the ball to Andre Pallante. He's been quietly effective at the back-end of its rotation, posting a 4.10 FIP and 1.31 WHIP while allowing only 2.1 runs per nine innings this season. I like the fact that he's shown the ability to work relatively deep into ball games, lasting at least into the sixth inning in each of his last three starts. Behind Pallante is a Cardinals bullpen that entered last night's action sporting a 2.96 ERA and 1.06 WHIP over the last seven games. Ian Anderson will get the start for Atlanta. He's battled command issues all season, recording a 4.58 FIP and 1.52 WHIP while yielding north of 5.4 runs per nine innings. You would have to go back three Anderson starts to find the last time the Braves won a game with the right-hander on the mound. Atlanta's relief corps entered last night's contest with a 5.64 ERA and 1.48 WHIP, not to mention three blown saves (to go along with three converted) over its previous seven contests. Take St. Louis (10*). |
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07-04-22 | Twins v. White Sox UNDER 9.5 | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
A.L. Central Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Monday. These two teams are coming off very different results on Sunday as the Twins failed to complete the sweep of the Orioles, falling by a 3-1 score at home, while the White Sox wrapped up an impressive sweep of the Giants in San Francisco, delivering a 13-4 victory. Here, I'm anticipating a relatively low-scoring affair as these two A.L. Central rivals square off in Chicago. Dylan Bundy will take the ball for Minnesota. He's had an up-and-down season to be sure but does bring solid form into this start having allowed just four earned runs over his last three starts, spanning 19 innings of work. Bundy checks in sporting a 4.32 FIP and 1.29 WHIP on the season but what I like about him is the fact that he doesn't walk a ton of batters, yielding just 1.8 walks per nine innings. White Sox starter Johnny Cueto is having a fine season, recording a 4.15 FIP and 1.17 WHIP while allowing just 3.5 runs per nine innings. The White Sox bullpen has posted the second best FIP in baseball over the last week, checking in with a 2.22 mark. For their part, Twins relievers have recorded a terrific 3.18 FIP over the same stretch, 11th best in the majors for that time frame. Take the under (10*). |
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07-04-22 | Mercury v. Sparks UNDER 169.5 | Top | 75-78 | Win | 100 | 7 h 23 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and Los Angeles at 7 pm et on Monday. The most recent meeting between these two teams totalled only 155 points so not surprisingly we're dealing with a lower posted total this time around. I'm not sure we've seen enough of an adjustment though. The Mercury have done a nice job of limiting their opponents scoring opportunities lately, allowing 67 or fewer field goal attempts in six straight games. They allowed 91 points in their most recent contest - a blowout loss against Chicago as the Sky quite simply shot the lights out (30-of-57 from the field). While Los Angeles has been 'filling it up' lately, making good on 37 and 30 field goals over its last two contests I expect it to run into a speedbump here. Note that the Sparks have tightened things up defensively, allowing 27 or fewer made field goals in three of their last four games. You would have to go back five games to find the last time Los Angeles allowed 70+ field goal attempts. With Phoenix playing its second game in three days and Los Angeles in a 3-in-4 situation, I'm not convinced either side will be interested in a track meet here. Take the under (10*). |
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07-03-22 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies UNDER 11.5 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 23 m | Show |
MLB First Five Innings Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between Arizona and Colorado at 3:10 pm et on Sunday. The first two games in this series have not surprisingly been high-scoring but we have the best starting pitching matchup of the series on Sunday as the D'Backs send Zac Gallen to the hill against Chad Kuhl of the Rockies. I look for this one to get off to a much lower-scoring start at least. Gallen owns a 3.75 FIP and 1.05 WHIP this season, allowing just 3.67 runs per nine innings. He's coming off a poor performance in his most recent start but that was in a tough situation as he was facing the Padres for a second straight outing (in the span of less than a week). He's held the Rockies to two earned runs or less in seven of his eight career starts against them, including no runs over seven innings in his lone previous start against them this season. Chad Kuhl is quietly enjoying a terrific campaign in his first year with the Rockies. He's thrived at hitter-friendly Coors Field, posting a 2.48 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in six starts. Kuhl checks in with a 3.95 FIP and 1.31 WHIP, yielding 3.72 runs per nine innings. In his most recent start he tossed a complete game shutout against the Dodgers (we won with the 'under' in that game). Rather than deal with two subpar bullpens in this matchup, we'll stick with the first five innings 'under' only. Take the first five innings under (10*). |
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07-02-22 | Red Sox -140 v. Cubs | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -140 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Game of the Month. My selection is on Boston over Chicago at 7:15 pm et on Saturday. The Cubs got the better of the Red Sox yesterday afternoon but I expect a different story to unfold on Saturday. Josh Winckowski will take the ball for Boston on Saturday. While he’s only worked 20 innings at the big league level, he has impressed, posting a 3.38 FIP and 1.45 WHIP. He’s giving up only 3.6 runs per nine innings. Alec Mills will counter for the Cubs on Saturday. He has recorded 8.27 FIP and 1.73 WHIP in 17 1/3 innings of work this season. Opponents are averaging more than 10 runs per nine innings off of him this season (small sample size, I know). Look for Boston to get back at Chicago here. Take Boston (10*). |
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07-02-22 | Angels +1.5 v. Astros | Top | 1-9 | Loss | -160 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
MLB A.L. West Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles +1.5 runs over Houston at 4:10 pm et on Saturday. I like the advantage the Angels have with Saturday’s starting pitching matchup as they send Patrick Sandoval to the hill against Jose Urquidy. Sandoval has been quietly impressive, recording a 3.21 FIP and 1.37 WHIP this season, giving up only 3.05 runs per nine innings. Urquidy has disappointed, posting a 4.83 FIP and 1.37 WHIP while yielding 4.6 runs per nine frames. Note that the Los Angeles bullpen has been terrific, posting a collective 3.50 ERA and 1.05 WHIP on the road this season (entering last night’s action). The Astros ‘pen is in poor form right now, recording a 5.40 ERA and 1.80 WHIP over the last seven contests. Take Los Angeles +1.5 runs (10*). |
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07-01-22 | Rangers v. Mets -1.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
Interleague First Five Innings Game of the Month. My selection is on New York -0.5 runs first five innings over Texas at 7:10 pm et on Friday. The Mets are coming off a two-game sweep at home against the Astros but I look for them to rebound on Friday, at least early on, against the Rangers. Glenn Otto will get the start for Texas. He's had command issues this season and checks in with a 5.19 FIP and 1.51 WHIP, allowing more than five walks per nine innings. Opponents are averaging north of 5.5 runs per nine innings off of the right-hander. Mets starter Chris Bassitt should be happy to face the Rangers - an old A.L. West division rival from his days with the Oakland A's. Bassitt owns a 3.93 FIP and 1.15 WHIP this season, allowing right around 4.1 runs per nine innings. Note that he's pitched well lately, allowing only six earned runs over his last three starts, spanning 21 1/3 innings of work. By playing the first five innings only we'll look to avoid the bullpen matchup here as the Rangers relief corps has admittedly been terrific lately, recording a collective 1.59 ERA and 0.81 WHIP over its last seven games. Take New York -0.5 runs first five innings (10*). |
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06-30-22 | Braves v. Phillies -130 | Top | 4-14 | Win | 100 | 20 h 20 m | Show |
My selection is on Philadelphia over Atlanta at 6:05 pm et on Thursday. The Braves have gotten the better of the Phillies so far in this series. While I did expect Philadelphia to earn a victory in the opener of the series (and they probably should have were it not for a ton of missed scoring opportunities), I felt the Braves were deserving favorites last night with an underrated Kyle Wright on the mound against Ranger Suarez. Here, I believe the Phillies are rightful favorites as they send an underrated arm of their own to the mound in Aaron Nola. Nola has posted a sparkling 2.82 FIP and 0.90 WHIP this season, allowing just shy of 3.1 runs per nine innings. His counterpart on Thursday will be Ian Anderson, who owns a 4.45 FIP and 1.45 WHIP, yielding north of 4.7 runs per nine innings. Entering last night's action, the Braves bullpen had posted a 4.73 ERA and 1.39 WHIP over the last seven games. Meanwhile, the Phillies relief corps had recorded a 2.57 ERA and 0.48 WHIP. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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06-29-22 | Marlins -120 v. Cardinals | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
N.L. First Five Innings Game of the Month. My selection is on Miami first five innings over St. Louis at 7:45 pm et on Wednesday. I’ll back the Marlins in the first five innings only on Wednesday as they send Sandy Alcantara to the mound against Andre Pallante of the Cardinals. Alcantara wasn’t at his best in his most recent start but still battled his way through seven innings against the Mets, ultimately foiled by a pair of home runs in the 5-3 setback. Keep in mind, he had given up just one home run in his previous nine outings so it’s not as if we’re seeing an emerging trend in that regard. Alcantara enters Wednesday’s start sporting a fantastic 3.03 FIP and 0.95 WHIP this season, yielding only 2.45 runs per nine innings in over 100 innings of work. Pallante started on four days’ rest for the first time in his young career last time out and pitched reasonably well in a 3-0 home loss to the Cubs (he lasted six innings). I question how he’ll hold up making a second consecutive start on short rest here, however. Pallante has recorded a pedestrian 4.28 FIP and 1.38 WHIP yet has somehow given up only 2.03 runs per nine innings. As good as the Cards defense is, I don’t believe that’s sustainable. We’ll aim to avoid the bullpen matchup here as the Cards have been in much better recent form in that regard and the Marlins have blown eight saves compared to nine converted on the road this season. Take Miami first five innings (10*). |
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06-29-22 | Pirates v. Nationals -124 | Top | 8-7 | Loss | -124 | 5 h 11 m | Show |
N.L. Non-Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Washington over Pittsburgh at 1:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Pirates and Nationals will conclude their three-game series with a matinee affair in Washington on Wednesday. Pittsburgh will hand the ball to Mitch Keller. He has never really been able to find his way at the big league level and is in the midst of another trying campaign having posted a 4.05 FIP and 1.42 WHIP, allowing north of 4.9 runs per nine innings. To put it simply, he’s allowing far too many hits and walks, 9.1 and 3.7 per nine innings, respectively. Of course the Pirates bullpen isn’t likely to do much behind Keller here, noting it entered last night’s game sporting an ugly 6.07 ERA and 1.50 WHIP with no saves converted and three blown over the last seven games (prior to last night's game). Paolo Espino will get the nod for the Nationals. We won with Washington in Espino’s most recent start as he once again pitched effectively in an eventual 2-1 win over the Rangers last Friday. Espino has lowered his FIP to 3.60 and WHIP to 1.11 and is giving up only 2.43 runs per nine innings this season. We’re not talking about all that small of a sample size either as Espino has worked over 40 innings. The Nationals bullpen has been serviceable lately, recording a collective 3.86 ERA and 1.23 WHIP over its last seven contests (entering last night's game), converting four saves without blowing any over that stretch. Take Washington (10*). |
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06-28-22 | Orioles v. Mariners UNDER 7.5 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 7 m | Show |
A.L. Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Baltimore and Seattle at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. We missed with the 'under' in the opener of this series last night as the Orioles bats came alive against Mariners rookie starter George Kirby in a 9-2 victory. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Tuesday, however, as Baltimore sends Dean Kremer to the mound against reigning A.L. Cy Young Award winner Robbie Ray for Seattle. Kremer has shown considerable improvement this season, even if we are talking about just 21 innings of work. He checks in sporting a 3.27 FIP and 1.24 WHIP while allowing only 2.14 runs per nine innings. At the minor league level, Kremer has worked nine shutout innings of two-hit ball this season, recording an impressive 18:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Of course the real star of the show for the Orioles has been their bullpen, which has posted a collective 1.23 ERA and 0.64 WHIP over the last seven games. Robbie Ray will be looking to help his team snap out of a mini two-game skid. He owns an inflated 4.19 FIP but a more respectable 1.18 WHIP on the campaign. Over his last three outings he has posted a sparkling 0.90 ERA and 0.70 WHIP with two of those three contests totalling three runs or less. The Mariners bullpen has had a tough time nailing down saves at home this season with four blown compared to only three converted but does check in with a 0.81 ERA and 0.72 WHIP over its last seven contests. Take the under (10*). |
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06-28-22 | White Sox +117 v. Angels | Top | 11-4 | Win | 117 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
A.L. Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on Chicago over Los Angeles at 9:35 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the Angels in the first five innings in last night's eventual 4-3 win in the opener of this series. I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the White Sox on Tuesday, however. Johnny Cueto has 'turned back the clock' for Chicago so far this season, posting a 3.63 FIP and 1.15 WHIP, allowing less than 3.4 runs per nine innings. The White Sox bullpen continues to hold up well on the road this season, recording a collective 3.12 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. Rookie Chase Silseth will counter for Los Angeles. Things haven't gone swimmingly in his first four big league starts as he has posted a 6.44 FIP and 1.47 WHIP, yielding just shy of 5.0 runs per nine innings. The Angels bullpen has been better this year than it was last season but that's not saying much. Note that the L.A. relief corps has only managed to convert 12 saves compared to eight blown at home this season. Take Chicago (10*). |
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06-28-22 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Rockies | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -135 | 14 h 18 m | Show |
N.L. Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles -1.5 runs over Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Tuesday. I can’t help but feel Clayton Kershaw has become an undervalued commodity at this stage of his storied career (you might not know it by the moneyline in this game but I believe it could be even higher). We successfully backed Kershaw in his most recent start against the Reds and I won’t hesitate to go back to the well as he takes the ball at Coors Field in Denver on Tuesday. Kershaw settled in nicely in his second start since returning from the I.L., holding Cincinnati to one earned run over six innings, and brings a 2.44 FIP and 0.91 WHIP into this contest. Opponents have reached Kershaw for just 2.0 runs per nine innings this season. Kyle Freeland will counter for Colorado. He owns a pedestrian 4.14 FIP and 1.37 WHIP this season. Freeland has allowed 2.9 more hits and 1.2 more walks per nine innings compared to Kershaw this season. Making the majority of his starts at Coors Field certainly factors in but Freeland has given up just under 4.9 runs per nine innings this season. Of course, Los Angeles should have the edge in the later innings in this one as well with a bullpen that entered last night’s action sporting a 3.29 ERA and 1.21 WHIP over its last seven games. The Rockies ‘pen entered this series having recorded a 5.49 ERA and 1.48 WHIP over the same stretch. Take Los Angeles -1.5 runs (10*). |
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06-27-22 | Dodgers v. Rockies UNDER 11.5 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 25 m | Show |
N.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Monday. The Rockies had their three-game 'under' streak snapped in a 6-3 loss in Minnesota yesterday. Still, it's worth noting that since scoring eight runs in the first game of their road trip last week, they've been held to a grand total of 10 runs over their last five contests. All three games in the Dodgers weekend series in Atlanta stayed 'under the total, even with last night's game going to extra innings. Los Angeles is of course still missing Mookie Betts after he suffered a rib injury last week. While tonight's starting pitching matchup won't grab headlines, I feel it's a good one. Dodgers starter Tyler Anderson is having a terrific season, recording a 3.29 FIP and 0.97 WHIP while allowing just north of 3.1 runs per nine innings. He didn't have his best stuff last time out against Cincinnati but still gave up just three earned runs over five innings. Anderson checks in sporting a 3.13 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in six road starts this season. Colorado will counter with Chad Kuhl. While his numbers certainly don't jump off the page, he's actually having a career year by most accounts. Kuhl has posted a 4.21 FIP and 1.43 WHIP while yielding 4.21 runs per nine innings. He's actually settled in nicely at hitter-friendly Coors Field, recording a 3.29 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 27 1/3 innings of work. While the Rockies bullpen has been shaky lately, it has generally pitched better here at home, sporting a collective 4.23 ERA and 1.30 WHIP with 11 saves converted and only four blown. The Dodgers 'pen has of course been lights out for much of the season. It entered last night's action with a 3.24 ERA and 1.08 WHIP over its last seven contests and has blown just one save (compared to seven converted) on the road this season. Take the under (10*). |
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06-25-22 | Sparks v. Storm -9 | Top | 85-77 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
WNBA Game of the Week. My selection is on Seattle minus the points over Los Angeles at 9 pm et on Saturday. The Storm have quietly rounded back into form, going 6-1 SU and 4-3 ATS over their last seven games, including back-to-back SU and ATS victories entering Saturday's contest against the Sparks. Seattle has been 'filling it up', knocking down 37, 29, 28, 28, 32 and 31 field goals over its last six games and should be able to keep it going against a weak Los Angeles defense that has yielded 32+ made field goals in seven of its last 10 games. The Sparks offense has been wildly inconsistent lately. After scoring 82 and 84 points over a two-game stretch it was held to just 59 points on 26-of-79 shooting against a vulnerable Chicago defense last time out. The Storm took the first meeting between these two teams by just three points back in May. Keep in mind, that matchup came at a time when Seattle was playing an uneven brand of basketball. The Sparks shot the lights out in that contest, something I don't anticipate them doing here. Take Seattle (10*). |
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06-25-22 | Orioles v. White Sox -1.5 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 27 m | Show |
MLB First Five Innings Game of the Year. My selection is on Chicago -0.5 runs first five innings over Baltimore at 2:10 pm et on Saturday. I'll lay the half-run with the White Sox in the first five innings against the Orioles on Saturday as they look to get back on track after dropping the first two games of this series in somewhat embarrassing fashion. Spenser Watkins gets a spot start for the Orioles. He's made eight previous starts this season and they haven't gone well. Watkins checks in sporting a 6.15 FIP and 1.70 WHIP. You could argue that we're talking about a fairly small sample size but it's worth noting that Watkins also posted a 6.37 FIP and 1.70 WHIP in 53 2/3 innings of work last season. His counterpart today will be veteran right-hander Lance Lynn. Lynn hasn't pitched well in his first two starts back from injury. With that being said, I think there were positives to take away from his last outing against the Blue Jays. He gave up just four hits over five innings in that contest with the Sox prevailing by an 8-7 score. The White Sox bats have certainly come alive in Lynn's previous two outings, producing a grand total of 17 runs. Lynn faced the Orioles once last year and tossed five shutout innings in an eventual 3-1 victory. By playing the first five innings only we'll look to avoid the bullpen matchup here with the O's 'pen having posted a 1.00 ERA and 0.78 WHIP over its last seven games. The Chicago 'pen owns an ugly 5.37 ERA and 1.55 WHIP at home this season with only nine saves converted compared to eight blown. Take Chicago -0.5 runs first five innings (10*). |
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06-24-22 | Hamilton v. Winnipeg OVER 42.5 | Top | 12-26 | Loss | -110 | 80 h 56 m | Show |
CFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Hamilton and Winnipeg at 8:30 pm et on Friday. The Blue Bombers have not surprisingly opened the season with consecutive low-scoring games against the Ottawa RedBlacks. I expect a different story to unfold this week, however, as they return home to host the winless Tiger-Cats. Hamilton jumped ahead 17-0 in the first quarter against Calgary in its home-opener last Saturday. Then we saw perhaps some complacency set in as the Ti-Cats allowed the Stampeders to get right back in the game and ultimately fell by a 33-30 score in overtime in the wildest game of the season to date. There were concerns entering the new season that the Ti-Cats defense might struggle with the new field layout and rule changes and that's been precisely the case through two games as they've allowed 30+ points against both Saskatchewan and Calgary. Things won't get any easier here as they face the two-time defending Grey Cup champion Blue Bombers on the road. Winnipeg hasn't been lighting up the scoreboard but it hasn't needed to. Game flow has dictated a pair of relatively low-scoring results against Ottawa - an opponent that's still finding its way with a new starting quarterback in former Ti-Cat Jeremiah Masoli. Hamilton looks a little more settled on offense with QB Dane Evans completing 60-of-86 passes for just shy of 800 yards through two games. We've already seen the Bombers show some vulnerability defending the pass, allowing Masoli and the RedBlacks to rack up 711 passing yards over the last two games against them. These two teams met twice last season and both games featured higher closing totals than we're dealing with this week. Note that the most recent matchup produced 58 total points. Take the over (10*). |
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06-24-22 | Lightning v. Avalanche UNDER 6 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 34 h 34 m | Show |
Stanley Cup Final Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Tampa Bay and Colorado at 8:15 pm et on Friday. We finally saw an 'under' result in this series in Game 4 as the Avalanche rallied twice from one-goal deficits to defeat the Lightning 3-2 in overtime, pushing them to the brink of elimination as the series shifts back to Colorado for Game 5 on Friday. I'm anticipating another relatively low-scoring affair. Note that low-scoring games tend to come in bunches for the Lightning, with the 'under' going 28-19 with Tampa Bay coming off an 'under' result this season, leading to an average total of 5.5 goals in that spot. Better still, the 'under' is 20-8 the last 28 times the Bolts laced them up for Game 5 of a playoff series, resulting in only 4.5 total goals on average. The Avs are of course known for their explosive offense but it's worth noting they've been incredibly stingy on home ice this season, allowing just 2.6 goals per game. Remember, they shut out the Lightning the last time these two met in Denver in Game 2. Tampa Bay has done a much better job of containing the Avs offense over the last two games, allowing only four goals in regulation time. While home ice certainly made a different, here, we'll note that the Lightning have allowed just 1.9 goals per game when playing on the road after losing three of their last four games over the last three seasons (14-game sample size), as is the case here, leading to an average total of 5.6 goals in that situation. Take the under (10*). |
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06-24-22 | Nationals +154 v. Rangers | Top | 2-1 | Win | 154 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on Washington over Texas at 8:05 pm et on Friday. I really like the way this one sets up for the Nationals as they look to bounce back from a shutout loss in Baltimore (we won with the Orioles in that game) and start this three-game interleague set in Texas with a victory on Friday. The starting pitching matchup will feature Paolo Espino of the Nationals against Dane Dunning for the Rangers. While Dunning had a terrific campaign last year, he's struggled here in 2022. The right-hander enters Friday's start with a 4.00 FIP and 1.33 WHIP, allowing 4.5 runs per nine innings. You would have to go back three home starts to find the last time he was on the hill for a Rangers win here in Texas. Espino will get another spot start for the Nats. While he's made only two starts, he has worked 35 1/3 innings this season, posting a solid 3.39 FIP and 1.08 WHIP. Opponents have reached Espino for just north of 2.5 runs per nine innings. While the Nationals bullpen has been awful on the road for the most part this season, it has shown signs of turning things around lately, recording a collective 3.51 ERA and 1.33 WHIP over the last seven games overall. The Rangers 'pen has converted only eight saves while blowing six here at home this season. As poorly as things have gone for Washington, it actually averages more runs per game on the road (4.4) than Texas does at home (4.2). Finally, I'll note that Texas checks in a woeful 14-23 in its last 37 games as a favorite, outscored by 0.9 runs on average along the way. Take Washington (10*). |
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06-23-22 | Astros v. Yankees -121 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
A.L. Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on New York over Houston at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. We won with the Yankees in thrilling come-from-behind fashion last night and I won't hesitate to go right back to the well with them as they return home to host the Houston Astros on Thursday. We have a fine starting pitching matchup between left-hander Framber Valdez of the Astros and righty Jameson Taillon of the Yankees in this series-opener. There's not a lot to separate the two starters this season but here we'll find reason to give the edge to Taillon. Note that he has posted a terrific 3.01 FIP and 1.06 WHIP this season. While Valdez has had some issues with command at times, issuing north of 3.0 walks per nine innings, Taillon has been in complete control, allowing just 1.1 walk per nine innings. Opponents are averaging just 2.7 runs per nine innings off of Taillon this season. Of course, the Yankees have been dominant at home (and just about everywhere else) this season, going 29-7 while averaging 5.0 runs per game in the Bronx. Their +145 run differential is more than 2X greater than all but the Dodgers (they're +124). While the Astros hold down the A.L. West Division lead by a comfortable margin, they've only outscored the opposition by 61 runs on the campaign. Take New York (10*). |
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06-22-22 | Avalanche +100 v. Lightning | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 36 h 14 m | Show |
NHL Game of the Year. My selection is on Colorado over Tampa Bay at 8:15 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the Lightning in Game 3 of this series on Monday as Tampa Bay showed up with its best effort of the series to avoid an 0-3 hole. Now I look for the Avs to answer back and push the Bolts to the brink of elimination before the series shifts back to Colorado for Game 5. It certainly wasn't surprising to see Tampa Bay push back and deliver a lopsided victory on Monday. After all, we are talking about the two-time defending Stanley Cup champions. The Lightning weren't simply going to roll over, certainly not on home ice. Things could have gone differently, however, were it not for an early disallowed Avalanche goal due to an offside call by way of review. Here, we'll note that Colorado checks in 34-12 when seeking revenge for a loss by 2+ goals against an opponent over the last three seasons, outscoring the opposition by 1.4 goals on average in that situation. While the Lightning may be known for their offensive prowess, this series certainly hasn't been played at their preferred pace. Note that they're a woeful 11-19 after three consecutive games totalling 7+ goals over the last three seasons, as is the case here, allowing 3.4 goals and outscored by 0.2 goals on average in that spot. Colorado has yet to lose consecutive games in these playoffs. It did drop six of seven games at the tail-end of the regular season but that was after it had wrapped up the President's Trophy and was more focused on managing the playing time of its stars. You would have to go all the way back to March 8th and 10th to find the last time the Avs lost consecutive 'meaningful' games and in that situation they were playing a third road game in four nights against a tough opponent in Carolina. You would have to go back eight meetings in this series to find the last time the Lightning managed to defeat the Avalanche in consecutive matchups, with that last taking place in October and December 2018. Take Colorado (10*). |
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06-22-22 | Guardians v. Twins UNDER 8.5 | Top | 11-10 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
A.L. Central Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Minnesota at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. These two teams were involved in a relatively high-scoring extra innings affair last night as the two bullpens took turns coughing up leads late. Generally speaking, both relief corps' have been solid this season, however, and I look for a lower-scoring contest on Wednesday. Triston McKenzie gets the call for the visiting Guardians. He checks in with a 4.37 FIP, largely due to his struggles with keeping the ball in the park. Outside of his 1.4 home runs allowed per nine innings, his numbers are terrific, most notably a 0.93 WHIP and just 2.96 runs allowed per nine innings. Sonny Gray will counter for the Twins. He's having an even better season than McKenzie, albeit with a smaller sample size (he's missed some time due to injury). Gray checks in with a terrific 2.74 FIP and 0.93 WHIP. Opponents have averaged just 2.09 runs per nine innings off of him this season. As I mentioned, last night's contest notwithstanding, the two bullpens have been solid this season. Cleveland's 'pen has posted a 2.02 ERA and 1.16 WHIP over its last seven games while Minnesota's relief corps' sports a 3.12 ERA and 1.08 WHIP over the same stretch. Take the under (10*). |
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06-22-22 | Nationals v. Orioles -140 | Top | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
Interleague Game of the Week. My selection is on Baltimore over Washington at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Nationals shut out the Orioles in the opener of this series last night but I expect a different story to unfold on Wednesday as Baltimore holds a substantial starting pitching edge. You have to wonder how many more opportunities we'll get to fade Nationals starter Patrick Corbin. He checks in sporting a 4.83 FIP and 1.78 WHIP this season, allowing just shy of 7.9 runs per nine innings. The Orioles aren't exactly tearing the cover off the baseball right now but they do average 4.4 runs per game against left-handed starters this season, going 13-13 compared to 17-26 against right-handers. Tyler Wells will counter for Baltimore. He has posted a 4.31 FIP and 1.07 WHIP, allowing 4.7 fewer hits and 1.7 fewer walks per nine innings compared to Corbin. The O's should have the edge in the later innings as well as their bullpen has been terrific lately, recording a collective 1.63 ERA and 0.94 WHIP over their last seven games. The Washington 'pen sports a 6.10 ERA and 1.53 WHIP on the road this season. Take Baltimore (10*). |
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06-21-22 | Mariners -137 v. A's | Top | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 16 h 33 m | Show |
MLB Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Seattle over Oakland at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Mariners may be struggling but a trip to Oakland to face the lowly A’s should help them bust out of their slump. Marco Gonzales will take the ball for Seattle on Tuesday. His numbers aren’t great this season by any means but they’re without question superior to those of Tuesday's opposing starter, James Kaprielian. Gonzales has recorded a 5.42 FIP and 1.31 WHIP while Kaprielian checks in with a 6.49 FIP and 1.50 WHIP. The Mariners left-hander should be happy to see the A's, noting that he owns a career 1.17 WHIP in 15 starts against them with Seattle winning 10 of those games. Kaprielian had a nice rookie campaign last season but hasn't been able to get on track in 2022, particularly at home where he owns a 7.42 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in four starts, spanning only 17 innings of work. While the team has had a tough time, Seattle’s bullpen has held up well recently, entering this series with a 1.00 WHIP over its last seven games. The Mariners bats have been quiet but their 3.8 per game scoring average away from home this season is still far better than Oakland’s 2.4 runs per contest at home. Noting that Seattle is 9-3 in its last 12 games played here in Oakland, I look for it to take advantage of this opportunity to right the ship, even just for one night, on Tuesday. Take Seattle (10*). |
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06-21-22 | Blue Jays v. White Sox UNDER 9 | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -120 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
A.L. Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. While he’s been up-and-down lately, Jays starter Kevin Gausman owns an excellent track record this season, posting an incredible 1.75 FIP through his first 13 starts. He allows too many hits (10.0 per nine innings) but makes up for it by limiting his walks (1.4 per nine innings) and putting up nice strikeout totals (just shy of 10.0 per nine innings). His counterpart on Tuesday will be Dylan Cease. He’s had the opposite problem, issuing more than four walks but limiting opponents to only 7.7 hits per nine innings. He has posted a solid 2.78 FIP this season. Cease enters this outing in terrific form, having not allowed an earned run over his last four starts, covering a span of 21 1/3 innings of work. Take the under (10*). |
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06-21-22 | Cardinals -125 v. Brewers | Top | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
My selection is on St. Louis first five innings over Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. I'll back the Cardinals in the first five innings only in this game as the Brewers do hold advantages in the later innings in this one with a bullpen that has posted a collective 0.00 ERA and 0.76 WHIP over their last seven contests. In the early innings, I expect it to be all Cards as they give Jack Flaherty his second start since returning from the I.L. on Tuesday. Flaherty wasn't particularly effective in his first outing against the Pirates last week but did get loose with a three-inning outing, allowing three hits, two walks, two earned runs while striking out three. I expect him to work a little deeper into this contest and I'm confident he can handle the Brewers lineup, noting that he faced them twice last season, allowing just two earned runs in 12 innings. Milwaukee will trot out waiver-wire pick-up Chi Chi Gonzalez. He'll be pitching for his third club since last season after getting cut loose by the Rockies and Twins. Neither of those teams have particularly strong pitching staffs to begin with so the fact that he was unable to stick should raise red flags. He's only in Milwaukee out of necessity as the Brewers have Freddy Peralta on the I.L. Gonzalez owns a career 5.37 FIP and 1.50 WHIP. In two starts with the Twins this season he was tagged for 12 hits and six earned runs over seven innings of work. The Cards bats were quiet against Corbin Burnes last night but I look for them to come alive early in this one. Take St. Louis first five innings (10*). |
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06-20-22 | Cardinals v. Brewers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
N.L. Central Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between St. Louis and Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Monday. The Cardinals enter Monday's series-opener in Milwaukee on the heels of five consecutive 'over' results. I expect a different story to unfold here, however, as we have a terrific starting pitching matchup featuring Miles Mikolas - who fell just short of delivering a no-hitter in his last start - and Corbin Burnes, fresh off a masterful performance against a tough Mets lineup last time out. Mikolas owns a 3.36 FIP and 0.97 WHIP this season and will be starting on a full five days' rest on Monday. Opponents are averaging just 2.8 runs per nine innings against him this season. While the Cards have lost three of their last four games, their bullpen hasn't been to blame. They entered yesterday's action sporting a 2.45 ERA and 0.77 WHIP over their last seven games. Corbin Burnes hasn't dominated the way he did last season but has still posted a terrific 3.08 FIP and 0.95 WHIP this season. I mentioned his last start against the Mets, it's worth noting that he didn't issue a walk for the first time in five starts in that outing. Burnes has been at his best against division opponents this season, recording a 2.42 ERA and 0.73 WHIP in four starts against the N.L. Central. Incredibly, the Brewers bullpen hasn't allowed a single earned run over its last eight games. Take the under (10*). |
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06-20-22 | Giants v. Braves UNDER 8 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 22 h 22 m | Show |
N.L. Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between San Francisco and Atlanta at 7:20 pm et on Monday. This is the best starting pitching matchup on Monday's board as the Giants send Logan Webb to the hill against Max Fried of the Braves. Webb has posted a 3.08 FIP and 1.18 WHIP this season. Better still, he has recorded a 1.08 WHIP on the road this season. He's also coming off his best start of the campaign as he tossed seven shutout innings against the Royals last week. Fried has been even better, posting a 2.80 FIP and 1.05 WHIP this season. He wasn't at his best in his most recent start but now he gets to pitch on a full five days' rest again and I expect him to hold the Giants bats in check. Note that opponents are averaging just a shade over 3.0 runs per nine innings against Fried this season. Beyond Webb and Fried, both bullpens have excelled lately, posting sub-2.00 ERA's over the last week. Take the under (10*). |
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06-18-22 | Lightning +1.5 v. Avalanche | Top | 0-7 | Loss | -200 | 54 h 44 m | Show |
NHL Game of the Week. My selection is on Tampa Bay +1.5 goals over Colorado at 8 pm et on Saturday. As I've noted time and time again in these playoffs, long winning streaks just aren't commonplace in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Here, we find the Avalanche coming off six consecutive victories, a streak that I believe is getting a little long in the tooth. The Lightning couldn't have got off to much worse of a start in Game 1 yet still ended up pushing the Avs to overtime before falling by a 4-3 score. Here, we'll note that Tampa Bay checks in 26-7 when seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 1.4 goals on average. Better still, the Bolts are 30-9 when seeking revenge for a loss where their opponent scored 4+ goals over the same stretch, outscoring the opposition by 1.5 goals on average in that spot. Additionally, Tampa Bay is 33-15 when trailing a playoff series, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.6 goals. While Colorado has now taken consecutive meetings against the Lightning on home ice, Tampa Bay is no stranger to winning in Denver, having reeled off five consecutive road wins in this series previously. Take Tampa Bay +1.5 goals (10*). |
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06-18-22 | Calgary v. Hamilton UNDER 45.5 | Top | 33-30 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 19 m | Show |
Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Calgary and Hamilton at 6:30 pm et on Saturday. These two teams were involved in much different results last week as the Stampeders prevailed in a high-scoring affair against the Alouettes while the Tiger-Cats ended up losing by 17 points in what was a very low-scoring game until the final few minutes when the Riders put two touchdowns on the board. Here, I'm not expecting much in the way of offensive fireworks. The Stampeders are still easing QB Bo Levi Mitchell back from injury and now he's dealing with a nagging foot ailment but will play on Saturday. Last week against what I would consider a middle-of-the-pack Als defense, Mitchell completed just 21-of-34 passes for 199 yards a touchdown and an interception. I'm not convinced the Stamps will be eager to throw him to the wolves against a terrific Ti-Cats defense on the road on Saturday. Hamilton will need to hang its hat on its defense - at least until it gets things figured out on offense. Dane Evans is supposed to take over the reins from Jeremiah Masoli at quarterback this season but he didn't look great last week, with Matt Shiltz entering the game for extended action. The Ti-Cats ground attack boasts some capable backs but no true workhorse or standout capable of churning out much-needed yardage in the three-down Canadian game. While I wasn't particularly high on the Stamps defense entering the season, I did like the way they shut down the Als in the second half last week, allowing just a single field goal. As I alluded to earlier, Hamilton didn't give up a touchdown until the final minutes of last week's 30-13 loss in Saskatchewan and we know how tough the Ti-Cats 'D' can be at Tim Hortons Field. As a final note, the Ti-Cats will be missing two key cogs on their offensive line due to injury this week, further hampering their offense. Take the under (10*). |
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06-18-22 | Rays -159 v. Orioles | Top | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 19 h 58 m | Show |
A.L. East Game of the Month. My selection is on Tampa Bay over Baltimore at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. The Orioles have been a 'tough out' all season and proved to be so again last night as they outlasted the Rays by a 1-0 score. I look for the Rays to answer back on Saturday against perhaps the Orioles weakest starting pitcher in Kyle Bradish. Bradish owns a 5.61 FIP and 1.67 WHIP this season. His counterpart on Saturday will be Jeffrey Springs, who has recorded a 3.16 FIP and 0.91 WHIP. Springs has given up 5.4 fewer hits and 1.4 fewer walks per nine innings compared to Bradish this season. Note that Bradish is allowing a whopping 7.1 runs per nine innings. Tampa Bay has now lost four games in a row but if they're to break that skid in Baltimore, this looks like the best matchup to do so. Note that despite the 1-0 loss last night, the Rays are still 28-8 in their last 36 matchups with Baltimore. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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06-17-22 | Twins -128 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -128 | 14 h 12 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Game of the Month. My selection is on Minnesota over Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Friday. The Twins continue to quietly rack up victories, now nine games over .500 on the season. They'll hand the ball to left-hander Devin Smeltzer on Friday as he looks to continue what has been a terrific 2022 campaign to this point. While Smeltzer isn't flashy by any means - he isn't going to set opposing lineups on fire with strikeouts - he has been consistently delivering, posting a 2.81 ERA and 1.13 WHIP over his last three starts. His 4.91 FIP leaves a lot to be desired but his 0.97 WHIP tells a different story. The fact is, opponents have averaged just 2.38 runs per nine innings off of the southpaw this season. D'Backs veteran starter Madison Bumgarner got off to a nice start this season but has been unsteady lately, recording a 3.94 ERA and 1.69 WHIP over his last three trips to the hill. His FIP has ballooned north of 5.0 and opponents are averaging 4.2 runs per nine innings against him. He checks in allowing 2.1 more hits and 0.7 more walks per nine innings compared to Smeltzer. Both bullpens have held up well lately but I give the Twins offense a considerable edge in this matchup, noting that they average 4.5 runs per game on the road this season while the Snakes check in averaging just 3.7 runs per contest at home. Take Minnesota (10*). |
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06-17-22 | Phillies -1.5 v. Nationals | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 40 m | Show |
N.L. East Game of the Month. My selection is on Philadelphia -1.5 runs over Washington at 1:05 pm et on Friday. We won with the Phillies last night as they trounced the Nationals in the opener of this series. I won't hesitate to go right back to the well with them on Friday afternoon in Game 1 of the day-night double-header. Ranger Suarez will take the ball for Philadelphia. His numbers certainly don't jump off the page this season, but they're far superior to those of Nationals starter Joan Adon, who inexplicably remains in the rotation despite a 6.95 ERA and 1.76 WHIP. Suarez checks in with a sub-4.00 career FIP with that number sitting at 4.17 this season. Again, his numbers don't really pop but Adon has allowed north of 10 hits and just shy of six walks, not to mention 7.3 runs per nine innings. Of course, starting pitching is only part of the equation and right now the Phillies are locked in at the plate, entering last night's game hitting .285 as a team over the last week. They also entered last night's action averaging 5.4 runs per game on the road while the Nats average just 3.7 runs per contest at home. While the Phillies bullpen is always a concern, I expect them to do enough offensively that it won't matter on Friday afternoon. Take Philadelphia -1.5 runs (10*). |
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06-16-22 | Warriors v. Celtics OVER 210.5 | Top | 103-90 | Loss | -108 | 61 h 24 m | Show |
NBA Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Golden State and Boston at 9 pm et on Thursday. I stayed away from the total in Game 5 of this series as I had the suspicion we may seen the 'zig-zag' totals pattern deviate for a game. Here, I won't hesitate to jump back in with a play on the 'over' following consecutive relatively low-scoring affairs. Boston couldn't have performed any worse offensively in Game 5. It had a tough enough time getting shots off let alone making them, ultimately knocking down just 31-of-75 field goal attempts. On the flip side, Golden State has seemingly figured out that speeding things up offensively can work to its advantage against a Celtics defense that much prefers to grind it out. The Warriors have now gotten off 88+ field goal attempts in three of the first five games in this series. They've also made good on 40+ field goals in consecutive games. While I do expect them to find continued success here in Game 6, I also feel the Celtics are favored for a reason and should enjoy a strong bounce-back performance, particularly at the offensive end of the floor. I really feel that the Celtics offensive woes over the last six quarters in particular have had more to do with their own poor shooting rather than anything the Warriors have been doing defensively. Noting that Boston has averaged 40-of-86 shooting here at home this season, I'm confident it can do its part to help this total along. Take the over (10*). |
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06-15-22 | Orlando City SC v. New England OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -140 | 23 h 32 m | Show |
MLS Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between New England and Orlando City SC at 7:30 pm et on Wednesday. You would have to go back eight meetings in this series to find the last time a match totalled 'under' 2.5 goals. Orlando City enters Wednesday's contest having seen seven of its last nine matches go 'over' 2.5 total goals while New England has had five of its last seven contests go 'over' that total. Not since April 30th, in a match where its opponent Inter Miami CF was handed two red cards, has New England posted a clean sheet - that's eight matches back. Orlando recorded a clean sheet against Toronto FC four matches back but that's been its only shutout posted in its last nine contests. With this match being played in Foxborough, with the Revolution looking to leapfrog Orlando - which currently holds down fifth place in the Eastern Conference - and jump into the playoff picture by grabbing all three points, I expect an aggressive gameplan from the home side here. That does leave it somewhat vulnerable, however, with Orlando having found the back of the net in seven consecutive trips to the pitch. Take the over (10*). |
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06-14-22 | Rays v. Yankees UNDER 8 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 16 m | Show |
A.L. East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Tampa Bay and New York at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Yankees beat up on Cubs pitching all weekend long but after an off-day on Monday, I suspect they'll find the going much tougher against the Rays pitching staff on Tuesday. Corey Kluber will get the start for Tampa Bay. He's pitched well this season, including in a previous start against New York in which he gave up just one earned run over six innings back on May 28th. Kluber owns a 3.65 FIP and 1.15 WHIP this season, highlighted by just 1.5 walks per nine innings. His counterpart on Tuesday will be Yankees starter Gerrit Cole, who looks to bounce back from an ugly outing in Minnesota last week. In that start, Cole was rocked for seven earned runs including five home runs in just 2 1/3 innings. It happens. New York actually went on to win that game by a 10-7 score so no harm, no foul I suppose. In spite of that poor performance, Cole has still posted a solid 3.58 FIP and 1.08 WHIP this season. He's allowed just north of seven hits and 3.6 runs per nine innings. Note that Cole was on the mound for that game against Kluber on May 28th and he also gave up just one earned run over six innings. I like the fact that both teams follow an off-day here, giving their bullpens some much-needed rest. Both 'pens have performed well lately with the Rays relief corps recording a 1.23 ERA and 1.19 WHIP over their last seven games and the Yanks 'pen checking in with a 1.97 ERA and 0.84 WHIP over the same stretch. Take the under (10*). |
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06-13-22 | Royals v. Giants OVER 8 | Top | 2-6 | Push | 0 | 14 h 12 m | Show |
Interleague Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Kansas City and San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Monday. Scoring runs hasn't been a problem for the Royals lately. Keeping their opponents' bats at bay has been. Kansas City checks in having scored 8, 7, 8 , 4 and 7 runs over its last five games, recording double-digit hit totals in each of those contests. On the flip side, they've been lit up for 10+ hits in seven of their last eight games, allowing 5+ runs on six occasions over that stretch. I expect more of the same on Monday, even as they travel to San Francisco to face a Giants club that has seen the 'under' go 5-0-2 over its last seven contests. After facing Clayton Kershaw and Julio Urias over the last two games, Royals starter Brady Singer will offer a welcome change of pace for the Giants on Monday. Singer is allowing well north of nine hits and just shy of two home runs per nine innings this season with a disappointing 4.16 FIP. He hasn't issued a single walk over his last three starts yet still gave up 13 earned runs in 15 2/3 innings, which is telling. Giants starter Alex Wood is coming off a dominant seven-inning performance against the Rockies last time out but those type of performances have been few and far between. He sports a 4.74 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in five home starts this season. Like Singer, he is also giving up north of nine hits per nine innings and while he's done a good job of keeping the ball in the park, he does yield 2.4 walks per nine innings. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is a long-term 36-17 when the Royals play on the road against N.L. West opponents with those games averaging 10.0 total runs. The 'over' is also 16-6 with the Giants coming off an underdog win over a division opponent over the last two seasons, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 8.3 runs. Take the over (10*). |
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06-13-22 | Celtics +3.5 v. Warriors | Top | 94-104 | Loss | -110 | 60 h 23 m | Show |
NBA Game of the Week. My selection is on Boston plus the points over Golden State at 9 pm et on Monday. Most had probably written the Warriors off at the end of the first half in Game 4 on Friday as they coughed up a second quarter lead and went into the break down by five points, looking down-trodden at best. From there, Steph Curry took over, lifting them to a much-needed victory to even this series at two games apiece. Now it's the Celtics turn to respond and I expect them to do just that on Monday. Note that Golden State knocked down 40 field goals for the first time in this series on Friday, but only got there thanks to getting off 91 field goal attempts. I don't expect that same pace to be there for the Warriors on Monday, however. In three meetings between these two teams in San Francisco this season, Boston has held Golden State to 86, 88 and 86 field goal attempts. It's certainly worth noting that the Celtics have allowed fewer than 40 made field goals in all seven games following a loss in these playoffs. They've also gone a perfect 7-0 in those contests. Note that Boston checks in 10-2 ATS when coming off a double-digit loss this season and 15-5 ATS when coming off an outright loss as a favorite, with both situations coming into play following Friday's 107-97 loss. Take Boston (10*). |
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06-13-22 | Marlins v. Phillies UNDER 7.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 105 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
N.L. East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Monday. While it may not garner much attention, Monday's series-opener between the Marlins and Phillies features a tremendous starting pitching matchup between Sandy Alcantara and Aaron Nola. Alcantara is an early N.L. Cy Young candidate - or should be at least. He probably doesn't get enough press since he pitches in Miami where the Marlins haven't been relevant for years. All Alcantara has done is post a 1.61 ERA and 0.94 WHIP not to mention a sub-2.00 FIP (1.96). While his 2.6 walks per nine innings are somewhat concerning, he's negated those by allowing just 5.9 hits and striking out 8.3 batters per nine innings. Aaron Nola is coming off one of his best outings of the young season for the Phillies. He has seen his ERA drop to 3.50 and WHIP to 0.88. He's right there with Alcantara with a 3.24 FIP. Nola does allow right around a hit more per nine innings than Alcantara but also issues just 1.2 walk on average. While both bullpens have had their issues at times this season, I don't rate either offense all that high and feel we're in for a pitcher's duel on Monday. Take the under (10*). |
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06-12-22 | Storm v. Wings UNDER 159.5 | Top | 84-79 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Seattle and Dallas at 4 pm et on Sunday. We're dealing with a considerably higher total than we saw in the front half of this two-game set between the Storm and Wings in Dallas on Friday. That game finished with a whopping 177 points. Keep in mind, these two teams just met last week in Seattle and reached only 119 points. I believe Sunday's total will prove too high. Seattle absolutely shot the lights out on Friday night, knocking down 37-of-67 field goal attempts. The Storm also turned in an uncharacteristically poor defensive performance, allowing 30 made field goals. Here, I look for Seattle to 'manage' proceedings somewhat as it continues a tough five-game in 10-night road trip. Dallas checks in averaging just 26-of-68 shooting here at home this season. On the flip side, the Wings have held opponents to 29-of-64 shooting in the host role and should make the necessary adjustments after getting lit up by the Storm on Friday. Note that the 'under' is 12-4 with the Storm coming off consecutive wins over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 153.8 points. Take the under (10*). |
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06-12-22 | Portugal v. Switzerland OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 13 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'over' between Switzerland and Portugal at 2:45 pm et on Sunday. No Cristiano Ronaldo, among others, for Portugal on Sunday but I still expect it to find the back of the net without much resistance from a Swiss side that has had a miserable time dealing with numerous key defensive absences and ailments in Nations League play. Switzerland is now winless in its last five matches, failing to post a clean sheet in any of those contests and I would anticipate a similar story unfolding here. I do, however, expect the Swiss to find some offensive success here after getting shut out by Spain last time out. Of course, that was their second straight match failing to score after a 4-0 drubbing at the hands of the same Portugal side they'll face on Sunday back on June 5th. They're likely to face a slightly weaker version this time around, however, opening the door for them to perhaps close the gap. With Portugal having struck first in five of its last six matches, Switzerland will undoubtedly come out with an attacking mindset here as it looks to finally break the seal again having not scored since a 2-1 loss to the Czech Republic on June 2nd. Take the over (10*). |
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06-12-22 | Marlins v. Astros -1.5 | Top | 4-9 | Win | 100 | 6 h 22 m | Show |
MLB Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Houston -1.5 runs over Miami at 2:10 pm et on Sunday. Marlins starter Edward Cabrera is off to a terrific start this season, allowing just one earned run in 12 innings of work. Of course, he's been able to pitch comfortably in both of those outings as his team's bats absolutely exploded, putting up 14 runs against Colorado and 12 runs against Washington. I expect a much different story to unfold today as the Marlins go up against Astros ace Justin Verlander. Verlander hardly pitched over the last two seasons but has come back strong here in 2022, posting a 2.13 ERA and 0.84 WHIP in 71 2/3 innings of work. The Astros check in 7-1 over his last eight outings, winning four of those games by at least two runs, including a 4-1 victory over Seattle earlier this week - a game in which Verlander allowed only one earned run while striking out a season-high 12 in seven innings. Here, we'll note that the Marlins are a woeful 1-10 when coming off five consecutive games in which they allowed four runs or less over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscored by 2.5 runs on average in that situation. After dropping the first two games in this series we'll look for the Astros to bounce back big on Sunday. Take Houston -1.5 (10*). |
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06-11-22 | Rangers +1.5 v. Lightning | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 34 h 49 m | Show |
My selection is on New York +1.5 goals over Tampa Bay at 8 pm et on Saturday. The Lightning were left for dead in this series by some after digging an 0-2 hole entering Game 3 last Sunday. They also trailed Game 3 by two goals in the second period before rallying for a 3-2 victory. Save for their 4-1 Game 4 victory nothing has come all that easy for the Bolts in this series and that's to be expected as they're getting the Rangers best punch as they try to march on to their third straight Stanley Cup Final (and potential championship). I don't expect the Blueshirts to go away quietly on Saturday and we'll gladly grab the insurance goal as they try to stave off elimination. Note that New York checks in 11-3 after allowing 3+ goals in three consecutive games this season, outscoring opponents by 1.0 goal on average in that situation. The Rangers have allowed just 1.6 goals per game and outscored opponents by 1.2 goals on average when playing on the road seeking revenge for three consecutive losses against an opponent over the last two seasons (11-game sample size), as is the case here. Finally, we'll note that Tampa Bay is just 2-7 and has been outscored by an average margin of 2.2 goals after winning eight or more of its last 10 games this season, which is also the situation here. Take New York +1.5 goals (10*). |
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06-10-22 | Warriors +4 v. Celtics | Top | 107-97 | Win | 100 | 35 h 53 m | Show |
NBA Finals First Half Game of the Year. My selection is on Golden State first half plus the points over Boston at 9 pm et on Friday. The Warriors didn't play particularly well in Game 3 of this series as the 'zig-zag' trend continued. Here, I look for a positive response from Golden State, at least early in Game 4 on Friday night. Note that the Warriors are 30-15 ATS in the first half after suffering a loss by 15+ points in their previous game over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by 1.0 point on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Celtics are a woeful 5-15 ATS in the first half when playing at home off a home victory this season, outscored by 0.1 points on average in that spot. I'm not willing to bet against the Celtics making the necessary halftime adjustments at home should they fall behind early in this one, instead we'll grab the points with Golden State in the first 24 minutes on Friday. Take Golden State first half (10*). |
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06-10-22 | Ottawa v. Winnipeg UNDER 48 | Top | 17-19 | Win | 100 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
CFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Ottawa and Winnipeg at 8:30 pm et on Friday. The CFL made a number of offseason rule changes in an effort to increase scoring after it was down across the league, particularly in the early stages of last season. Last night, we saw the season-opener between the Alouettes and Stampeders total 57 points. With that being said, that result had more to do with the early execution of the two offenses than it did any rule changes. Here, I look for a different story to unfold as the Redblacks challenge the two-time defending champion Blue Bombers in Winnipeg on Friday. Ottawa overhauled its roster in the offseason as wholesale changes were necessary following a dismal 2021 campaign - particularly on the offensive side of the football. In comes former Tiger-Cats QB Jeremiah Masoli to run the offense, with plenty of other weapons added to the roster as well. One of those weapons will serve as the backfield leader in veteran RB William Powell. Unfortunately, he's injured and has been ruled out for Friday's game. I do think it will take some time for Masoli to mesh with his new receiving corps. This game serves as a 'baptism by fire' against perhaps the league's most dominant defense in Winnipeg. I don't expect the Redblacks to put too much on Masoli's plate here, even if they'd love to open things up right out of the gate. They can afford to stay somewhat conservative offensively because their defense has the chance to be terrific, with a number of new recruits on board. Keep in mind, the Redblacks defense was solid at times last season, it was simply on the field too much and injuries ultimately took their toll. I love the additions they made in the offseason with Patrick Levels and Money Hunter among those coming over from the Als in particular. Speaking of defense, the Blue Bombers are once again loaded in that department. That's certainly nothing new after they gave up a grand total of only 15 touchdowns all of last season. While the offense adds standout WR Greg Ellingson, it loses RB Andrew Harris. It remains to be seen whether RB Brady Oliveira can pick up the slack following Harris' departure - it will likely be more of a running back by committee situation in the early going. While the Bombers are favored heavily in this game, I do expect a hard-fought affair and believe the total will prove too high. Take the under (10*). |
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06-10-22 | Storm -2.5 v. Wings | Top | 89-88 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
WNBA Revenge Game of the Year. My selection is on Seattle minus the points over Dallas at 8 pm et on Friday. We missed with the Storm in the last meeting between these two teams last week as Seattle was trounced by 17 points, at home no less. The Wings have now taken the last two matchups in this series but I look for the Storm to get their revenge on Friday. This will be Dallas' first game back home since May 21st as it comes off a tough five-game road trip that saw it go 2-3 SU and 3-2 ATS. We saw some signs of tired legs from the Wings at the tail-end of that trip as they knocked down just 26 and 27 field goals in their last two games. In the latter performance they actually got off a whopping 78 field goal attempts against Las Vegas. That doesn't bode well as they prepare to face a stingy Storm defense that has allowed fewer than 70 field goal attempts in nine of its last 10 games. While Wings' opponents have been 'filling it up' lately, making good on 30+ field goals in three of their last four games, the Storm have limited four of their last five opponents to 26 or fewer made field goals. We'll note that Seattle is a long-term 104-77 ATS when coming off four or five losses ATS in their last six games, as is the case here. The best is yet to come from the Storm at both ends of the floor and I look for them to build off Tuesday's double-digit win over the Dream on Friday. Take Seattle (10*). |
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06-10-22 | France -135 v. Austria | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -135 | 7 h 8 m | Show |
Nations League Game of the Month. My selection is on France over Austria at 2:45 pm et on Friday. France has been rather unimpressive through its first two matches in Nations League action, coming away with just a single point thanks to a draw with Croatia last time out. We didn't see France's 'A' squad in that match but we're likely to here. Austria is off to an up-and-down start, delivering a 3-0 knockout punch against Croatia before falling to Denmark last time out. While it would certainly relish the opportunity to come away with at least a point here to improve its standing in the group, I expect it to be in tough. The Austrian starting XI is filled with Bundesliga talent, particularly at the back-end. I don't necessarily look at that as a positive - at least not as it prepares to go against a team like France. Note that the Austrians have found the back of the net in six consecutive matches across all competitions (since getting shut out by Denmark in World Cup Qualifying last October). I believe that streak could be in jeopardy here with France likely to go back to the experienced Hugo Lloris between the sticks on Friday. Note that the French have been first to score in five of their last six matches. This time I look for them to make it stand up for 90 minutes. Take France (10*). |
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06-09-22 | Lightning v. Rangers OVER 5.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Final Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Tampa Bay and New York at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. We've been riding the 'under' in this series but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'over' as the scene shifts back to Madison Square Garden for Game 5 on Thursday. While I hesitate to say that the Bolts have 'solved' Rangers all-world goaltender Igor Shesterkin, they've certainly put a dent in his armor over the last couple of games, scoring six goals on the Hart Trophy candidate. Note that all six of those goals have come in the last four-and-a-half periods. Shesterkin has looked a little tired, and gets little relief here with just one day between games once again. The Rangers struggled to sustain any sort of offensive attack in the last two games in Tampa but we should see a different story unfold back in New York, noting that the Blueshirts average 3.4 goals per game on home ice and put nine pucks in the back of the net in Games 1 and 2. The Bolts haven't been nearly as stingy on the road as they've been at home this season, allowing 3.1 goals per contest. Note that the 'over' is 17-8 with the Lightning playing on the road off five or six wins over their last seven games this season, leading to an average total of 7.2 goals. Meanwhile, the Rangers have posted a 12-4 o/u mark when coming off a road loss over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 7.3 goals in that spot. Take the over (10*). |
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06-08-22 | Warriors v. Celtics OVER 212.5 | Top | 100-116 | Win | 100 | 59 h 11 m | Show |
NBA Finals Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Golden State and Boston at 9 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the 'over' in Game 1 of this series and the 'under' in Game 2. Both results were of the 'rocking chair' variety. Here, we'll continue to follow the zig-zag pattern for another game and back the 'over' as the scene shifts to Boston for Game 3 on Wednesday. The Warriors have now been held to fewer than 40 made field goals in each of the first two games of this series but still managed to score 108 and 107 points in those contests. Note that they haven't been held to less than 40 field goals in three consecutive games since March. After Golden State got off 88 and 86 field goal attempts in Games 1 and 2 I could certainly see the pace ticking up a bit here in Beantown, noting that Boston allowed Miami to attempt 92 and 90 field goals in Games 3 and 4 at home last round. Boston has allowed the opposition to get off 88+ field goal attempts in 10 of its last 14 games overall. Needless to say, the Celtics will be in bounce-back mode offensively after a dismal showing in Game 2. They managed to make good on just 30-of-80 field goal attempts in that contest after shooting a blistering 43-for-85 in Game 1. A return home should help, noting the C's have averaged 40 made field goals per contest at TD Garden this season. The lone regular season meeting between these two teams in Beantown saw neither team shoot particularly well with Golden State knocking down 39 field goals and Boston countering with 36, yet that contest still reached 218 total points. I believe an over-adjustment to the total has been made once again after the low-scoring result in Game 2. Take the over (10*). |
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06-08-22 | Poland v. Belgium OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 32 m | Show |
Nations League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Belgium and Poland at 2:45 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the 'over' in Belgium's 4-1 drubbing at the hands of the Netherlands in its Nations League opener last week and I won't hesitate to come right back with the same play here as it hosts Poland in Brussels on Wednesday. We certainly didn't see Belgium's 'A' game against Holland as it fielded a makeshift squad and lost Romelu Lukaku just 27 minutes into the match due to injury. It isn't expected to have standout goalkeeper Thibault Courtois for this contest and I'm confident in predicting another shaky performance from Club Brugge keeper Simon Mignolet in Courtois' absence. Poland didn't get a goal from Robert Lewandowksi but still managed to come away victorious by a 2-1 score against Wales last time out. I'm confident we'll see the all-world striker find the back of the net in this contest. Note that both teams have scored in six of Belgium's last seven matches across all competitions and not surprisingly, six of those seven contests went 'over' 2.5 total goals as well. After such a dismal showing against the Netherlands we can anticipate a positive response from Belgium here, particularly at home, but I'm not convinced it keeps a clean sheet against a confident Polish side that is undefeated in its last three matches. Take the over (10*). |
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06-07-22 | Rangers v. Lightning -164 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 34 h 14 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Final Game of the Year. My selection is on Tampa Bay over New York at 8 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the Lightning in Game 3 of this series on Sunday as they rallied from a 2-0 deficit to prevail by a 3-2 score. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with Tampa Bay again in Game 4 on Tuesday as it looks to knot this series at two games apiece before heading back to Manhattan. The Lightning are now 32-15 on home ice this season including 5-1 in the playoffs. While the Bolts are known for their offense, they've been as stingy as they come here on home ice, allowing just 2.6 goals per game this season while outscoring opponents by 0.9 goals on average. The same trend we used to support our play on Tampa Bay in Game 3 still works in Game 4 as the Bolts are now an incredible 16-1 when playing at home after losing two of their last three games over the last two seasons, allowing just 1.7 goals per contest and outscoring opponents by 1.8 goals on average in that situation. The Rangers just haven't been the same team away from Madison Square Garden this season, posting a modest 27-22 record while failing to outscore their opponents on a per-game average. It seemed to me that the Lightning solved Rangers elite goaltender Igor Shesterkin as the game went on Sunday afternoon, peppering him with an incredible 52 shots on goal in that contest and finding the back of the net three times in the final 30 minutes. Expect some carry-over from that thrilling come-from-behind victory on Tuesday. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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06-07-22 | Phillies v. Brewers -108 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
N.L. Game of the Week. My selection is on Milwaukee over Philadelphia at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. This is a tough matchup for Phillies starter Ranger Suarez. The Brewers will be getting their second look at him this season. While they didn't have a ton of success against him last time around (they lost that game 4-2 in Philadelphia on April 22nd), it's not as if Suarez was dominant. He allowed four hits and issued three walks while striking out four over 4 2/3 innings of one-run ball in that game. I say it's a difficult matchup because Suarez has dealt with some command issues, particularly of late, as he's handed out seven walks in 8 2/3 innings over his last two starts and now faces a Brewers squad that ranks second in baseball in most pitches seen this season. In that vein, no team takes more first pitches than Milwaukee. They should be able to get Suarez's pitch count up early in this one and ultimately get into the Phillies weak bullpen fairly early. Note that Philadelphia's relief corps has posted a collective 4.71 ERA and 1.63 WHIP with just five saves converted and four blown on the road this season. Contrast that with the Brewers bullpen, which has recorded a 2.99 ERA and 1.09 WHIP, converting six saves while blowing just one here at home. Milwaukee will hand the ball to rookie Jason Alexander as he makes his second big league start. His first went well as he gave up just two earned runs over seven innings in a tough environment at Wrigley Field in Chicago. He should benefit from facing a Phillies club that ranks eight-worst in the majors in terms of chase percentage (that's the percentage of pitches outside of the zone that Phillies hitters swing at). Also note that Philadelphia ranks seventh-worst in the league in whiff percentage (percentage of pitches they swing-and-miss on without contact). Milwaukee is desperate for a win here off three straight losses to the Padres while Philadelphia is in a pretty obvious letdown spot off Sunday's stunning rally that helped complete a sweep of the reeling Angels and lead to a fourth straight win. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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06-07-22 | Lynx v. Liberty -2.5 | Top | 69-88 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
WNBA Non-Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on New York minus the points over Minnesota at 8 pm et on Tuesday. New York had its two-game win streak snapped at the hands of Minnesota on Sunday but I look for it to earn a quick ounce of revenge in Tuesday's rematch at Madison Square Garden. Minnesota's opponents have been 'filling it up', knocking down 31+ field goals in five of its last seven games with the low-water mark over that stretch being 28. Last time out, the Lynx shot the lights out but still won by 'only' seven points. The pace hasn't necessarily been there to match Minnesota's offensive production, noting that it has gotten off just 52, 60 and 63 field goal attempts over its last three games. I'm not convinced it can match the 31 made field goals it recorded on Sunday in Tuesday's rematch. I don't like what I've seen from the Lynx defensively as they've afforded their opponents far too many scoring opportunities, allowing 71 or more field goal attempts in four of their last five games. With New York coming off one of its best shooting efforts of the season on Sunday (it knocked down 32-of-71 FG attempts), I believe the door is open for it to hang a crooked number on the scoreboard on Tuesday. The Lynx have yet to string together consecutive victories this season and are 0-4 after scoring 80+ points, as is the case here. Take New York (10*). |
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06-06-22 | Avalanche v. Oilers UNDER 7 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -120 | 14 h 46 m | Show |
Western Conference Final Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and Edmonton at 8 pm et on Monday. Bettors are still waiting for a return to the form that saw Game 1 of this series total a whopping 14 goals. We've cashed with the 'under' in each of the last two games and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play in Game 4 on Monday as we haven't seen much of an adjustment to the total at all at most books. Both teams will be missing some offensive firepower in this one with Evander Kane suspended for one game for his hit on Nazem Kadri (who will also be sidelined due to injury). The Oilers have now allowed 4+ goals in four straight games - the first time they've done that since January. On the flip side, the Avs have scored 4+ goals in each of the first three games in this series - the first time they've scored four goals or more in three consecutive games since January as well. While I've been critical of Oilers goaltender Mike Smith at times, he certainly hasn't been the problem in this series. In fact, in Game 3 he kept Edmonton in the game early, making a number of key saves on an Avs two-man advantage. Meanwhile, Pavel Francouz has filled in admirably for an injured Darcy Kuemper for Colorado. With Leon Draisaitl clearly not 100% healthy, the Oilers haven't been quite as much of a handful offensively, Connor McDavid's exploits aside. Here, we'll note that Edmonton has posted a 6-15 o/u record when playing at home off a home loss by 2+ goals over the last two seasons with that situation totalling an average of just 5.2 goals. The 'under' is also 10-3 with the Oilers having allowed 4+ goals in consecutive games this season, resulting in an average total of 5.8 goals in that spot. Take the under (10*). |
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06-06-22 | Mariners v. Astros -154 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -154 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
A.L. West Game of the Month. My selection is on Houston over Seattle at 8:10 pm et on Monday. The Mariners are 4-2 on their current road trip, delivering consecutive series victories over the Orioles and Rangers. Texas essentially handed Seattle the win yesterday, with a wild pitch resulting in the winning run in extra innings. I don't expect Houston to be in as giving of a mood on Monday. Note that the Astros have owned this series at home in recent years, taking 16 of 20 meetings at Minute Maid Park over the last three seasons. They swept the Mariners in a three-game series here at home earlier this season. With that being said, Seattle took two of three games from Houston in the Pacific Northwest last weekend so the Astros will be revenge-minded here. Robbie Ray won the American League Cy Young Award last year so the Mariners obviously expected big things from their offseason acquisition. However, to this point, the marriage hasn't gone well as Ray has posted a 4.93 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in 11 starts. Worse still, on the road he's recorded a 5.86 ERA and 1.44 WHIP. The Astros check in 14-4 against left-handed starters this season. Cristian Javier will take teh ball for Houston. He loves facing the Mariners having yet to allow a single earned run in three previous starts against them, covering a span of 18 1/3 innings. Javier has made three home starts this season, posting a sparkling 0.53 ERA and 0.71 WHIP. Behind Javier is an Astros bullpen that has been lights out at home this season, recording a collective 1.35 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in 66 2/3 innings of work, converting six saves while blowing just one. Take Houston (10*). |
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06-05-22 | Mystics v. Sky OVER 156 | Top | 82-91 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Chicago at 6 pm et on Sunday. We missed with the 'under' the last time these two teams met as they fell just short of the total with 155 points. We're actually dealing with an even lower posted total this time around as Washington enters this contest on a seven-game 'under' streak while Chicago has seen the 'under' cash in each of its last three games. Expect those streaks to end on Sunday. Washington is suddenly pushing the pace a bit, getting off 70+ field goal attempts in each of its last three games. It should be afforded plenty of scoring opportunities against the Sky, who have allowed 70+ field goal attempts in six straight contests. In the most recent meeting between these two teams Washington simply couldn't make good on its wealth of opportunities, knocking down just 27 of 72 FG attempts. The Mystics enter this game off three straight quality performances in which they made good on 28, 33 and 28 field goals. Chicago hasn't fared particularly well offensively in its last few games but back home, where it averages 31-of-70 shooting, I expect it to bounce back. Note that Washington, while a terrific defensive team, has still allowed 28 and 30 made field goals over its last two road contests. Take the over (10*). |
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06-05-22 | Rangers v. Lightning -170 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 43 m | Show |
NHL Game of the Week. My selection is on Tampa Bay over New York at 3 pm et on Sunday. As I've pointed out time and time again in these playoffs, long winning streaks just aren't commonplace in the NHL postseason. We saw that play out at the start of this series as the Rangers snapped Tampa's six-game winning streak with a victory in Game 1 (and then went on to win Game 2 as well). Now we'll look for the Lightning to bring an end to the Rangers four-game winning streak, noting that New York is just 5-15 when playing on the road after scoring 3+ goals in three consecutive games over the last two seasons, outscored by 1.4 goals on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Lightning are an incredible 12-1 when playing at home seeking revenge for a one-goal loss against an opponent over the same stretch, outscoring the opposition by 2.2 goals on average. Tampa Bay also checks in 15-1 when playing at home coming off two losses in its last three games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 1.9 goals on average in that spot. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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06-05-22 | Astros -220 v. Royals | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 44 m | Show |
Run-Line Game of the Week. My selection is on Houston over Kansas City at 2:10 pm et on Sunday. The Astros got pummelled by the Royals yesterday, suffering a 6-0 defeat. I expect them to bounce right back on Sunday as they send Framber Valdez to the hill. Valdez is coming off a complete game victory in Oakland last time out. Incredibly by today's pitching standards, Valdez has worked at least seven innings in four straight starts. The Astros have won each of his last five trips to the hill. He'll be pitching on a full five days' rest here and noting that he owns a 1.40 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in six road starts this season, I expect him to fare well in this one. On the other side, Jon Heasley has lasted six innings just once in seven career big league starts. He hasn't been able to keep runners off the bases this season, issuing 16 walks and giving up 18 hits in just 19 1/3 innings. He's not a strikeout pitcher either, having topped out at five in his four outings this season. Add in the fact that the Royals bullpen owns a 5.36 ERA and 1.51 WHIP at home this season and this has all the makings of a rout. Take Houston -1.5 (10*). |
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06-04-22 | Red Sox v. A's UNDER 7.5 | Top | 8-0 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
American League Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Oakland at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. Boston cruised to a 7-2 victory in the opener of this series last night, adding to the A's misery here in Oakland. I'm expecting a lower-scoring affair on Saturday afternoon as the Red Sox send Nick Pivetta to the hill against Paul Blackburn for the A's. After a rocky start to the season, Pivetta has gotten himself on a serious roll, allowing just six earned runs over 34 innings in his last five outings. He pitched here in Oakland last July 4th, striking out 10 over seven shutout innings of two-hit ball in a 1-0 Boston victory. Blackburn didn't make many mistakes last time out against Houston but he paid for the few he did, including a pair of home runs, allowing four earned runs on five hits over 6 2/3 innings in a 5-1 loss. In five daytime starts this season Blackburn has posted a 2.51 ERA and 0.91 WHIP, covering a span of 28 2/3 innings. He'll be facing the Red Sox for the first time in his career today. While both bullpens have struggled lately I do believe both relief corps' are better than their recent numbers indicate. We can also take solace in the fact that the A's average a woeful 2.6 runs per game at home while it's generally been a case of feast-or-famine for the Red Sox offense and after scoring exactly seven runs in consecutive games, I expect them to cool off against a solid pitcher in Blackburn on Saturday. Take the under (10*). |
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06-03-22 | Wings v. Storm -5.5 | Top | 68-51 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Seattle minus the points over Dallas at 10 pm et on Friday. Seattle hasn't fared particularly well from an ATS perspective as a favorite over the last couple of seasons but that's had a lot to do with the fact that we've generally seen inflated prices when it comes to the perennial contenders. That's not the case anymore, as evidenced by tonight's line - note that in two home games against Dallas last year Seattle was favored by 9 and 9.5 points. The Storm are in a fine spot here, rested and at home on the heels of four consecutive wins, however they went just 2-2 ATS over that stretch, also helping to keep this line in check. Additionally, they'll be without Sue Bird once again due to Covid protocols on Friday. She's struggled in the early going this season anyway, in what is likely to be her WNBA swan song season. Dallas checks in off consecutive losses against Connecticut and Los Angeles. The Wings most recent setback was particularly concerning as they got off 74 field goal attempts - knocking down 33 of them - while holding the Sparks to just 56 FG attempts yet still fell short. The Wings have now allowed 31, 29, 29, 27, 34 and 36 made field goals in their six road games this season. Here, we'll note that Seattle is a long-term 103-75 ATS when coming off four or five ATS losses in their last six games, as is the case here. Take Seattle (10*). |
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06-03-22 | Braves v. Rockies UNDER 11.5 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
National League Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Friday. We saw a wild, high-scoring slugfest between these two teams last night. I expect a different story to unfold on Friday. Max Fried continues to lead the Braves rotation, posting incredibly consistent numbers over the last few seasons. He checks in with a 2.37 ERA and 0.79 WHIP in three road starts this season. While pitching at Coors Field is a challenge, I'm confident he'll be up for it, noting that he's lasted at least into the sixth inning in all 10 of his starts this season. Rockies starter Chad Kuhl is underrated to be sure. He has held up well at hitter-friendly Coors Field this season, recording a 1.04 WHIP in 16 1/3 innings of work. Eight of his nine starts this season have totalled eight runs or less. Note that Kuhl faced the Braves once last season as a member of the Pirates and the result was a 2-1 victory as he gave up just one earned run over six innings. The Rockies bullpen will always be a concern when it comes to playing 'unders' but I believe we're working with a high enough total that dealing with their relief corps is worth the risk. Take the under (10*). |
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06-03-22 | Denmark v. France OVER 2.5 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 110 | 7 h 8 m | Show |
Soccer Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between France and Denmark at 2:45 pm et on Friday. When these two squads last met in 2018 they played to a 0-0 draw. I expect nothing of the sort on Friday, however, as they tangle in their Nations League opener. Of course, the stakes aren't nearly as high in this tournament as they are in the Euros or World Cup - not even close. So perhaps it's not surprising that yesterday's opening day slate of Nations League contests was fairly high-scoring. I expect more of the same here. France comes in riding a seven-match winning streak across all competitions. You would have to go back 10 matches to find its last defeat. Five of its last six contests have found their way 'over' 2.5 total goals. Likewise, Denmark has seen five of its last seven matches go 'over' 2.5 goals. Denmark is certainly no pushover - it sits 11th in the FIFA rankings and enters this contest having scored first in eight of its last 10 trips to the pitch. With key defender Simon Kjaer expected to miss this contest, the Danes may be a little think at the back and France is certainly capable of exposing any sort of weakness in that area of the field with Mbappe and Benzema capable of striking at any given moment. France can be vulnerable at the back-end as well, noting that just going back to last September you'll find the likes of Ivory Coast and Bosnia & Herzegovina have managed to find the back of the net against Les Bleus. We'll count on some offensive fireworks here. Take the over (10*). |
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06-03-22 | Cardinals +105 v. Cubs | Top | 14-5 | Win | 105 | 6 h 56 m | Show |
N.L. Central Game of the Month. My selection is on St. Louis over Chicago at 2:20 pm et on Friday. The Cubs got the better of the Cardinals in the opener of this series last night but I think they'll be in tough trying to make it two in a row against their division rivals on Friday. Marcus Stroman will make his third consecutive start on four days' rest after matching a season-high going seven innings in his last outing. He's struggled mightily in three home starts this season, posting a 6.28 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. The Cardinals saw him twice last season and had some success, scoring six runs, four of them earned, in 11 innings - both victories. Miles Mikolas struggled in his most recent start for St. Louis but his overall numbers are terrific this season. He's allowed a single earned run or less in five of his last six starts against Chicago and the Cards have won six of his nine career outings in this matchup. The bullpen matchup is virtually a wash overall this season but not recently as the Cubs relief corps has been awful over the last week or so, entering last night's contest sporting a 6.96 ERA and 1.45 WHIP over their last seven games. Take St. Louis (10*). |
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06-02-22 | Mets v. Dodgers -155 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 15 h 41 m | Show |
N.L. Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles over New York at 10:10 pm et on Thursday. Sometimes a series just doesn't go the way you planned and that was certainly the case for the Dodgers against the Pirates as they were inexplicably swept, culminating with an 8-4 loss last night. Look for the Boys in Blue to bounce right back on Thursday as they welcome the red hot Mets to Chavez Ravine. New York has won six straight games entering this series, with all six victories coming at home - consecutive sweeps of the Phillies and Nationals. Taijuan Walker will start for New York on Thursday. He's shown a tremendous day-night dichotomy this season. In two daytime outings, spanning 14 innings, he hasn't allowed a single earned run. Nighttime outings have been a different story, however, as he's been tagged for 11 earned runs on 24 hits in just 21 innings of work. Tony Gonsolin will counter for Los Angeles. Forget the likes of Julio Urias, Walker Buehler and Clayton Kershaw (who has been on the shelf for a while now), Gonsolin has arguably been the Dodgers best starter this season. He's been particularly sharp here at home, posting a 1.29 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in four starts, covering 21 innings of work. Look for him to help Los Angeles snap its losing skid here. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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06-02-22 | Celtics v. Warriors -3.5 | Top | 120-108 | Loss | -110 | 84 h 56 m | Show |
NBA Finals Game of the Year. My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Boston at 9 pm et on Thursday. I get the feeling this might be the best price we get to back the Warriors at home all series. We just won with Boston in Game 7 of its Eastern Conference Finals showdown against Miami. Of course, the Celtics struggled to put the Heat away late in the fourth quarter of that contest. We saw the C's and Warriors split two regular season matchups with each team winning on the other's home court. I expect a different story to unfold in the opener of this series, however. Note that Boston was held to 36 or fewer made field goals in six of seven games against Miami last round. It had a tough enough time just getting shots off, attempting fewer than 80 field goals in five of the seven contests. The Warriors on the other hand have been locked-in offensively for months now. They enter this series having knocked down 40+ field goals in 16 of their last 21 games. On the flip side, they just held Dallas to 37 or fewer made field goals in four of five games in the Western Conference Finals. After an up-tempo series against the Grizzlies, they limited the Mavericks to 86 or fewer FG attempts in all five games last round. Regardless how this series plays out pace-wise, I expect Golden State to be comfortable. Here, we'll note that the Warriors are 9-1 ATS when playing at home seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent this season, as is the case here after dropping a lopsided 110-88 affair here in mid-March, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 13.3 points in that situation. Take Golden State (10*). |
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05-31-22 | Oilers v. Avalanche UNDER 7 | Top | 6-8 | Loss | -129 | 34 h 15 m | Show |
Pacific Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Edmonton and Colorado at 8 pm et on Tuesday. We're being offered a total of 7 at plenty of books leading up to Game 1 of the Western Conference Final between the Oilers and Avalanche. The 'over' cashed in four of the Oilers five games against the Flames last round. Credit the Oilers for taking it to their in-province rivals and ultimately prevailing in fewer games than most would have imagined. They'll face a much tougher challenge here, however. Colorado had to break a sweat but ultimately got past the Blues in six games last round. While the Avalanche boast a potent offense, it's important to note that their defensive play has been terrific as well. Note that the Avs have given up three goals or less in eight of 10 playoff games. They held the Oilers to two goals or less in consecutive meetings earlier this season before dropping a 6-3 decision in Edmonton very late in the regular season when they were already looking ahead to the playoffs, mired in a 1-6 slide to end the campaign. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 10-2 with the Oilers playing on the road after winning four consecutive games over the last three seasons, as is the case here, leading to an average total of just 5.0 goals. This season, the 'under' is 9-3 with the Oilers playing on the road after consecutive games that totalled 7+ goals, which is also the situation here, resulting in an average total of 6.0 goals. Meanwhile, the Avs have seen the 'under' cash at a 14-3 clip when playing at home seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent by 2+ goals over the last two seasons, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 5.3 goals. Take the under (10*). |
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05-30-22 | Rangers v. Hurricanes OVER 5.5 | Top | 6-2 | Win | 125 | 36 h 33 m | Show |
NHL Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Carolina at 8 pm et on Monday. We've been riding the 'under' throughout this series, with considerable success. Now that the genie is finally out of the bottle, so to speak, following the Rangers high-scoring 5-2 victory on Saturday night, I look for another relatively high-scoring contest in Game 7 on Monday night. The Canes fired a whopping 39 shots on goal in Saturday's loss but didn't really generate enough dangerous scoring chances to keep pace with the Blueshirts. That should change back at home. New York seemed to finally solve Canes goaltender Antti Raanta on Saturday, finding the back of the net three times on just 13 shots before he was replaced. Raanta has played as well as he has at any point of his career in these playoffs but you have to wonder if the clock could be striking midnight. The Rangers certainly boast plenty of firepower and have now scored 13 goals in taking three of the last four games in this series. The Canes are at home for Game 7, however, and I'm confident they can bounce back from their poor showing on Saturday, noting that they have scored 21 goals in their last five home contests following a loss, good for an average of over 4.0 goals per game. Take the over (10*). |
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05-29-22 | Celtics -140 v. Heat | Top | 100-96 | Win | 100 | 37 h 10 m | Show |
My selection is on Boston moneyline over Miami at 8:30 pm et on Sunday. We won with the Heat in the first half (and the full game 'over') in Game 6 of this series on Friday night. I couldn't help but feel that the betting marketplace was missing the mark with Miami installed as a big underdog in a series where either team is capable of rising up and delivering a dominant performance in any given contest. The Heat did well to stave off elimination in Boston but I expect the Celtics to respond and deliver the knockout blow in Miami on Sunday. Note that the Celtics were finally able to limit the Heat's scoring opportunities somewhat on Friday night, holding them to a series-low 78 field goal attempts. Miami simply shot the lights out, relatively-speaking. It's been a bit of a slog for the Boston offense at times in this series, struggling to get out of the 70's in terms of field goal attempts per game. However, we have seen them shown the ability to shoot exceptionally well also. Off a poor shooting night on Friday, I'm certainly anticipating a strong bounce-back performance on Sunday. Rather than lay the points with the C's on the road here, we'll back them at a very reasonable price on the moneyline. Having cashed a number of tickets with the scrappy Heat in this series already, I do have plenty of respect for them and don't expect them to get their doors blown off by any means. Take Boston moneyline (10*). |
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05-28-22 | Hurricanes v. Rangers -106 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 33 h 20 m | Show |
Metropolitan Division Playoff Game of the Year. My selection is on New York over Carolina at 8 pm et on Saturday. Game 5 of this series was interesting as the Hurricanes jumped ahead 1-0 early before the Rangers quickly tied things up and then New York seemingly grabbed a 2-1 lead in the second period before that goal was called back. From there the tide turned back in the hometown Canes favor as they went on to score the next two goals in a 3-1 victory. Who knows how that contest would have played out were it not for the disallowed Rangers goal. New York certainly carried the play for much of the game, outshooting Carolina by a wide 34-17 margin. That was the fourth straight game in which the Rangers held the advantage in terms of shots on goal. I like New York to bounce back here at home, where it has gone an impressive 32-15 this season, outscoring opponents by 1.0 goal on average. The Canes are actually one of the weakest road teams remaining in the playoffs, with a 25-21 record, outscoring opponents by 0.4 goals on average but allowing just shy of 3.0 goals per contest. Note here that the Rangers are 11-3 when seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent this season, outscoring the opposition by 1.3 goals on average in that spot. Better still, the Blueshirts are 7-1 when that road loss came by 2+ goals, which is the situation here, outscoring opponents by 1.3 goals on average along the way. The home team has now won all 12 games the Hurricanes have played in these playoffs. I'm not going to go against the grain here. Take New York (10*). |
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05-28-22 | Real Madrid +0.5 v. Liverpool | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 32 h 36 m | Show |
Champions League Game of the Year. My selection is on Real Madrid +0.5 goals over Liverpool at 3 pm et on Saturday. There's something special about this Real Madrid squad. It hasn't faced an easy road to reach this Champions League Final - not by any stretch of the imagination. Los Blancos have had to outlast the likes of Paris Saint-Germain, Chelsea and Manchester City, erasing second half deficits in a number of matches thanks in large part to the heroics of one of the world's best players in Karim Benzema. Now comes arguably the toughest test of all as Liverpool has gone undefeated across its last 18 matches. I'm confident Real Madrid will be up for the challenge. I understand the overwhelming support for Liverpool in this match. After all, Real Madrid could certainly be considered 'lucky' to be here given the nature of its recent Champions League victories. Liverpool on the other hand hasn't left much doubt. There's also the matter of this match being played in France, rather than Madrid where Los Blancos delivered their unthinkable comeback victories. Note that while Los Blancos last two matches resulted in rather uninspiring draws against Cadiz and Real Betis, those lackluster performances weren't unexpected as they had already wrapped up the La Liga crown and were already preparing for this showdown with Liverpool. There's really nothing negative I can say about the Reds here. They field a tremendous level of talent across the board. If there is perhaps one advantage Real Madrid might have it is in the last line of defense as keeper Thibault Courtois has been outstanding and can tilt the scales in a match such as this. Liverpool keeper Alisson is elite in his own right but doesn't bring the same form as Courtois. While most are anticipating plenty of offensive fireworks in this one, I'm counting on a tight, low-scoring affair and that should favor underdog Real Madrid. We'll grab the half-goal as insurance as we should be in for another 'instant classic'. Take Real Madrid +0.5 goals (10*). |
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05-28-22 | Brewers -112 v. Cardinals | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -112 | 7 h 2 m | Show |
MLB Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Milwaukee over St. Louis at 2:15 pm et on Saturday. The Cardinals evened this series at a game apiece with a 4-2 victory last night. I look for the Brewers to answer back on Saturday. Adrian Houser didn't earn a win in his most recent start but he certainly did everything that was asked of him, allowing only one earned run over six frames in an eventual extra innings loss in San Diego. Since then, the Brewers have won three of their last four games. Houser certainly enjoys pitching against the Cardinals. He has allowed just two earned urns in 30 2/3 innings of work against them going back to the start of last season. The Brewers have won three of his five career starts here in St. Louis. Matthew Liberatore will get his second big league start for the Cardinals out of necessity only. He drew a favorable matchup against the light-hitting Pirates in his first career start last week but didn't fare well, allowing four earned runs on seven hits over just 4 2/3 innings. He wasn't exactly thriving at the AAA level prior to the call-up, posting a 3.83 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in 40 innings of work. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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05-27-22 | Heat v. Celtics OVER 200.5 | Top | 111-103 | Win | 100 | 24 h 35 m | Show |
NBA Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Boston at 8:30 pm et on Friday. I think we're seeing a major overreaction when it comes to the total in Game 6 of this series after the last two games were exceptionally low-scoring (by today's NBA standards). While Game 5 totalled only 173 points, the pace was actually there - at least from the Heat as they got off a series-high 94 field goal attempts. They quite simply couldn't hit their shots. Now with their backs against the wall in Game 6, I'm confident we'll seem them bounce back on Friday. Here, we'll note that the Heat average an impressive 117.2 points per game when seeking revenge for consecutive losses against an opponent this season, with that situation resulting in an average total of 221.4 points (12-game sample size). The Celtics have averaged 113.2 points per game off consecutive 'under' results this season, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 218.1 points (23-game sample size). Miami has held Boston to fewer than 80 FG attempts in three consecutive games. The last time that happened, Miami's next game totalled 222 points back on May 4th against Philadelphia. Take the over (10*). |
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05-27-22 | Heat +9 v. Celtics | Top | 111-103 | Win | 100 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
Eastern Conference First Half Game of the Year. My selection is on Miami first half plus the points over Boston at 8:30 pm et on Friday. The Heat were embarrassed in the second half of Game 5 two nights ago, on their home floor no less. Most have completely written them off as the series shifts back to Boston for Game 6 - a potential elimination game for Miami having dug itself a 3-2 series hole. I do expect the Heat to come out fighting in this one, however, and will grab them with the generous handful of points in the first half on Friday night. Note that Miami has gone 13-5 ATS in the first half after losing consecutive games ATS this season, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an impressive 5.3-point margin in that situation. The Celtics on the other hand are a woeful 3-12 ATS in the first half when playing at home off consecutive ATS victories this season, outscored by 0.4 points on average in that spot. The last time we saw these teams meet in Boston in Game 4 the Celtics built an insurmountable 57-33 lead at halftime. The Heat did respond by leading by five at the half in Game 5 but it still wasn't enough as they couldn't keep it going in the second half. We won't worry about the second half on Friday, instead backing the Heat in the game's first 24 minutes as I expect them to give the Celtics their best punch, early on at least. Take Miami first half (10*). |
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05-27-22 | Avalanche -168 v. Blues | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 23 h 48 m | Show |
My selection is on Colorado over St. Louis at 8 pm et on Friday. The Avalanche couldn't close the deal in Game 5 on Wednesday, despite building a 3-0 lead and seemingly having proceedings in full control. While the Blues did well to battle back and ultimately win in overtime, I don't expect them to turn the trick again on Friday. Note that the Blues 'home ice advantage' has been virtually non-existent lately, 0-2 in this series and 2-5 over their last five games here in St. Louis. Colorado checks in 28-17 on the road this season where it has outscored opponents by an average margin of 0.5 goals. There's just not a lot for the Blues to hang their hat on here, even after Wednesday's thrilling victory, noting that they've been outshot 71-50 over the last two games and goaltender Ville Husso has performed admirably since taking over for an injured Jordan Binnington, but he's in no position to steal a game having allowed nine goals over the last two games. Take Colorado (10*). |
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05-26-22 | Oilers v. Flames -145 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -145 | 15 h 20 m | Show |
Western Conference Second Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Calgary over Edmonton at 9:30 pm et on Thursday. The Flames ran into a buzz-saw in Edmonton, dropping both games to fall behind 3-1 in this series. In fact, the Oilers have won three games in a row since losing the series-opener by a 9-6 score. As I've noted previously, long winning streaks just aren't commonplace in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. We've seen it time and time again. Here, I look for the Flames to answer back on home ice, where they're 29-18 and outscore opponents by 1.3 goals on average this season. We'll also note that the Oilers are a woeful 2-12 the last 14 times they've played on the road after consecutive home wins by 2+ goals, as is the case here, outscored by 1.3 goals on average along the way. Take Calgary (10*). |
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05-26-22 | Mavs v. Warriors -6.5 | Top | 110-120 | Win | 100 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
Western Conference Finals Game of the Year. My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Dallas at 9 pm et on Thursday. Simply put, the Mavericks haven't found enough scoring opportunities to truly stay competitive in this series, noting that they've been held to 86, 78, 75 and 82 field goal attempts through the first four games. Fortunately, they shot the lights out in Game 4, staving off elimination for one game at least. The problem is, they haven't been able to stop the Warriors offense. Golden State enters Game 5 on Thursday having made good on 41, 46, 46, 38 and 41 field goals over its last five games. Unlike the Mavs, who have been held to fewer than 80 FG attempts in four of their last seven contests, the Warriors have gotten off 80+ in 12 straight games. Here, we'll note that Golden State is 8-1 ATS when playing at home seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent this season, outscoring the opposition by 13.6 points on average in that situation. Take Golden State (10*). |
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05-25-22 | Celtics v. Heat +1.5 | Top | 93-80 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 1 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Finals Game of the Week. My selection is on Miami plus the points over Boston at 8:30 pm et on Wednesday. The Heat had their doors blown off two nights ago in Boston, falling behind by an almost insurmountable deficit early and never recovering. That's not to say the opportunities weren't there, however. They actually got off 90 field goal attempts in the loss (compared to just 78 for the Celtics). In fact, the Celtics have been held to fewer than 80 field goal attempts in three of the first four games of this series and haven't reached 90 field goal attempts in a game since back on April 10th in Memphis. Boston has gone 1-5 ATS after attempting fewer than 80 field goals in consecutive games over the last three seasons. Here, we'll also note that Miami checks in 10-1 ATS after scoring 100 points or less in a game this season, outscoring opponents by 13.3 points on average in that situation. The Celtics on the other hand are just 3-5 ATS when coming off a home win by 20+ points this season. Take Miami (10*). |
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05-25-22 | Phillies v. Braves UNDER 8.5 | Top | 4-8 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
N.L. East First Five Innings Total of the Month. My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between Philadelphia and Atlanta at 7:20 pm et on Wednesday. Credit the Braves for putting up six runs including two in the ninth inning in last night's wild walk-off win over the Phillies. I'm not counting on another offensive outburst here, however. Note that Atlanta hasn't scored more than six runs in a game since May 8th. It has been held to four runs or less in six of its last nine contests. Tonight, the Braves will face Phillies left-hander Ranger Suarez who will be happy to face a team other than the Dodgers after running into Los Angeles in each of his last two outings. Suarez checks in sporting a 2.50 ERA and 1.17 WHIP on the road this season. Charlie Morton counters for Atlanta. He's settled down after a shaky start to the campaign, allowing just four earned runs in 16 1/3 innings over his last three trips to the hill. Morton owns a terrific 2.89 ERA and 1.02 WHIP at home this season. He last faced the Phillies right here in Atlanta last September, delivering seven innings of shutout ball. Note that Morton has yielded just one home run in his last seven outings against Philadelphia. Take the first five innings under (10*). |
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05-25-22 | Orioles v. Yankees OVER 7.5 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
A.L. East First Five Innings Total of the Month. My selection is on the first five innings 'over' between Baltimore and New York at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. This spot sets up well to play the 'over' in the first five innings only as we get the pitching matchup of Tyler Wells for the Orioles against J.P. Sears - making his first big league start - for the Yankees. Wells is going to be in tough here as he makes his second straight start on just four days' rest. He's had an up and down start to the season but it's been mostly down lately as he has allowed six earned runs in just 8 2/3 innings over his last two outings. Wells has topped out at four strikeouts in his eight starts so far this season so it's not as if he's fooling many hitters. I certainly don't expect him to fool many Yankees batters on Wednesday as they get their third look at him already this season. While they haven't had a great deal of success against him so far, that will likely change here as this will be the first time they catch Wells pitching on short rest. We don't know much about J.P. Sears - certainly not what he's capable of at the big league level. What we do know is that the Orioles bats have been heating up, rattling off 11, 11, 6, 10, 9 and 7 hits over their last six games, plating 9, 8, 1, 7, 6 and 6 runs over that stretch. We're not interested in dealing with the two bullpens here as both have a fairly solid track record so far this season. Take the first five innings over (10*). |
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05-24-22 | Warriors v. Mavs OVER 215.5 | Top | 109-119 | Win | 100 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
Western Conference Finals First Half Total of the Year. My selection is on the first half 'over' between Golden State and Dallas at 9 pm et on Tuesday. I get the feeling we're going to see both of these teams come out pretty loose with the series well in hand for the Warriors, up 3-0. The pace certainly wasn't there for a high-scoring game in Game 3 of this series, and it wasn't as Golden State secured a 109-100 victory and we cashed our play on the 'under'. With that being said, the fact that the game still got to 209 points was impressive considering the Warriors got off 81 field goal attempts and the Mavericks countered with just 75. Here, I look for the pace to tick up, particularly early on, noting that the previous time we saw an 'under' result in this series, the next game (Game 2) saw a whopping 130 points scored in the first half. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is an incredible 16-4 in the first half with the Warriors playing on the road with an opportunity to close out a playoff series, with that spot producing an average first half total of 116.0 points. Meanwhile, the Mavs have seen the first half 'over' go 22-10 when coming off three losses in their last four games over the last three seasons, as is the case here, leading to an average first half total of 115.5 points. Take the first half over (10*). |
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05-23-22 | Avalanche v. Blues +1.5 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -165 | 15 h 10 m | Show |
Second Round Puck-Line Game of the Year. My selection is on St. Louis +1.5 goals over Colorado at 9:30 pm et on Monday. We won with the Avalanche on Saturday as they skated to a 5-2 victory to grab a 2-1 series lead. I won't hesitate to go the other way on Monday, however, as the Blues look to answer back, just as they did in Game 2 of the series. Yes, St. Louis lost goaltender Jordan Binnington to an injury after a questionable play from Nazim Kadri in Game 3 on Saturday. Ville Husso is certainly a capable backup, however, noting that he actually began the playoffs as the starter before being replaced by Binnington following a couple of poor performances against the Wild. Prior to Game 2 of the opening round against Minnesota, Husso had gone a perfect 12-0 in his last 12 starts when factoring in the +1.5 puck-line, as we'll be using to our advantage here. Note that Colorado has allowed 4.1 goals per game, outscored by an average margin of 0.3 goals when coming off a road win in which it scored 4+ goals over the last two seasons (14-game sample size). Meanwhile, St. Louis checks in averaging 3.8 goals per contest and outscoring opponents by 0.5 goals on average when coming off two losses in its last three games this season (25-game sample size), as is the case here. This is obviously a critical game for the Blues as they're not likely to reel off three straight victories against a team as good as the Avalanche should they dig a 3-1 series hole. Note that St. Louis has responded well to adversity in these playoffs, notching victories on both previous occasions when trailing a series with those two wins coming by a combined 9-3 margin. Take St. Louis +1.5 goals (10*). |
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05-23-22 | Brewers +100 v. Padres | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 10 m | Show |
N.L. Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Milwaukee over San Diego at 9:40 pm et on Monday. I think the case can be made for the Brewers being the better team in this matchup, with the better starting pitcher on the mound, yet we're getting an underdog price as the Padres roll in off four consecutive victories capped off by a three-game sweep against the division rival Giants in San Francisco. We actually cashed a free play on the underdog Nationals in their win over the Brewers yesterday as Milwaukee looked like it had one foot already on the plane having easily won the first two games in that series against Washington. Here, we'll note that the Brewers are 12-9 on the road this season, averaging 4.1 runs per game. By contrast, the Padres are 10-7 at home, but have managed to score only 3.4 runs per contest. Brewers starter Adrian Houser has inexplicably struggled in two starts against the lowly Reds this season but has excelled against everyone else. He was a hard-luck loser against the Braves last time out, allowing just one unearned run over six innings in a 3-0 Brewers loss. Houser faced the Padres twice last season, allowing only two earned runs in 9 2/3 innings including a 4-2 Brewers victory here in San Diego. Nick Martinez gets another turn in the rotation for the Padres, out of necessity only. He's struggled to the tune of a 4.40 ERA and 1.44 WHIP this season with those numbers rising to 5.22 and 1.50 in four home outings. The Brewers will be getting their first look at him here but so were the Cubs in his most recent start and they reached him for five earned runs in just four innings. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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05-23-22 | Heat v. Celtics UNDER 208 | Top | 82-102 | Win | 100 | 14 h 29 m | Show |
Conference Finals First Half Total of the Year. My selection is on the first half 'under' between Miami and Boston at 8:30 pm et on Monday. We've seen the 'over' cash in each of the first three games of this series, not to mention the first half 'over' as well. I expect a different story to unfold on Monday, however. The last two games have seen these two teams take turns shooting the lights out. First it was a three-point barrage from the Celtics down 1-0 in the series in Game 2 and then an early all-out shooting assault from the Heat back in Boston in Game 3. Now, however, both teams are dealing with some key injuries with Jimmy Butler and Jayson Tatum among those getting banged-up in Game 3 on Saturday. Both will likely play on Monday but whether they're 100% healthy is up for debate. Note that the three regular season meetings between these two teams totalled just 84, 99 and 105 first half points - all staying 'under' the number we're dealing with tonight. Also note that the 'under' is 11-3 with the Celtics seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent as a home favorite this season, leading to an average first half total of just 98.3 points. The Heat have posted a very long-term 104-146 o/u mark in the first half across all playoff games over the last number of years. Take the first half under (10*). |
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05-22-22 | Warriors v. Mavs UNDER 219 | Top | 109-100 | Win | 100 | 15 h 39 m | Show |
Western Conference Finals Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Dallas at 9 pm et on Sunday. We missed with the 'under' in Game 2 of this series on Friday but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play as the scene shifts to Dallas for Game 3 on Sunday. The pace didn't necessarily dictate such a high-scoring affair on Friday. Dallas got off just 78 field goal attempts in that game - the third time in the last five games it has been held to 78 or fewer FG attempts. Meanwhile, Golden State shot the lights out for the second straight game; an identical 46-of-82 shooting to what we saw in Game 1 in fact. Note that the Mavs have only allowed consecutive opponents to knock down 40+ field goals once previously in these playoffs. In their next game they held the Suns to just 94 points in a game that didn't even reach 200 (103-94 final score at home in Game 3 last round). While the Warriors do average 40 made field goals per contest on the road this season, they'll face a tough challenge here with Dallas allowing just 38-of-84 shooting on its home floor. Likewise, the Mavs average 39 made field goals on 85 attempts at home this season but will be up against a Warriors team that can play some defense as well, yielding their opponents just 39 made field goals on 86 attempts per game on the road this season. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a long-term 72-48 with the Warriors playing on the road off three consecutive ATS victories, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 10-1 with Dallas playing at home seeking revenge for a loss in which its opponent scored 110+ points this season, which is also the situation here. Take the under (10*). |
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05-22-22 | Padres v. Giants -126 | Top | 10-1 | Loss | -126 | 7 h 58 m | Show |
N.L. West Game of the Month. My selection is on San Francisco over San Diego at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. The Padres are already 'fat and happy' having won six of eight games on their current road trip. They've already defeated Giants starter Alex Wood right here in San Francisco once this season but I don't expect them to turn the trick for a second time here. Note that Wood is 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in a pair of previous afternoon outings this season. Meanwhile, Padres starter MacKenzie Gore was used out of the bullpen earlier this week in Philadelphia, missing his turn in the starting rotation. Given how well Gore has pitched as a starter this season it was a bit of a head-scratching move, although I suppose San Diego is looking to limit his workload somewhat. I think there's a good chance we see Gore a little off having not started in nearly two weeks and the Giants are fully capable of taking advantage, noting that they're putting up 5.5 runs per game, going 5-3 against left-handed starting pitching this season. San Diego has won the first two games in this series but only owns a slight 3-2 edge here in San Francisco this season and an 11-10 advantage in games played in this park over the last three seasons. Look for the Giants to answer back here. Take San Francisco (10*). |
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05-22-22 | Sky v. Mystics OVER 157.5 | Top | 82-73 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
WNBA Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Washington at 3 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'under' in the Mystics gritty road win over Atlanta two nights ago. I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the 'over' as they return home to host Chicago on Sunday. The Mystics were without Elena Delle Donne for Friday's game as she had a scheduled night off as she eases her way back from injury. She should be back in the lineup on Sunday to boost a deep Mystics offense that scored 78 points on Friday despite getting off just 55 field goal attempts and shooting a miserable 3-of-18 from three-point range. Note that Washington has put up 84+ points in all three home games this season. Chicago is coming off a low-scoring contest against Seattle, falling by a 74-71 score. The Sky have had plenty of time to get over that setback on Wednesday and I fully expect a stronger offensive performance here. The extra days off should have certainly served Allie Quigley well. The Sky sharp-shooter has been easing her way back into game action, contributing in just 15 points in 43 minutes of action in her two games back in the lineup. Candace Parker has been held to exactly 11 points in three straight games after scoring 21 in Chicago's season-opener. Like Quigley, I expect Parker to make a more significant contribution against the Mystics on Sunday. The Mystics were fortunate to give up 'only' 73 points in Friday's win considering Atlanta was able to get off 66 field goal attempts. Expect Chicago to improve on that number here. Take the over (10*). |
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05-21-22 | Heat +6.5 v. Celtics | Top | 109-103 | Win | 100 | 34 h 52 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Finals Game of the Year. My selection is on Miami plus the points over Boston at 8:30 pm et on Saturday. You're not going to win many games when your opponent knocks down 20+ three-pointers and the Heat found that out first hand on Thursday night. I do think we see Miami throw that result away and come back strong as the series shifts to Boston for Game 3 on Saturday, however. The Celtics aren't going to shoot the lights out again from long range here. Note that Miami has held opponents to an average of 37-of-84 shooting including 13 made threes per game on the road this season. The Heat, despite not holding serve in the first two games at home, have done a good job of limiting the Celtics opportunities, allowing 79 and 84 field goal attempts heading into Game 3. In fact, the C's have gotten off fewer than 90 field goal attempts in 13 consecutive games - a big reason they've gone just 2-3 ATS as a favorite over that stretch. Miami has now been held to fewer than 40 made field goals in consecutive games to open this series. It hasn't been kept under that number in three straight contests since March 23rd-26th. With that being said, I expect a positive response from the Heat here, noting that they've gone 18-6 ATS in an underdog role this season and check in 16-5 ATS when coming off a double-digit loss as a favorite over the last three seasons, as is the case here. Take Miami (10*). |
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05-21-22 | Avalanche -161 v. Blues | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 33 h 3 m | Show |
Central Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Colorado over St. Louis at 8 pm et on Saturday. We cashed our free play on the Blues puck-line in Game 2 of this series on Thursday but I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the Avs as the series shifts to St. Louis on Saturday. After a dominant performance in Game 1 (Blues goaltender Jordan Binnington stood on his head in that overtime loss), Colorado was brought back to Earth in Game 2. That wasn't all that surprising, as I noted in my analysis that long winning streaks aren't all that commonplace in the NHL Playoffs (the Avs had won five games in a row to open the postseason). Now I look for Colorado to answer back, noting that it has gone 18-5 when seeking revenge for a loss in which it scored one goal or less over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by 1.5 goals on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Blues are just 5-12 in their last 17 games when tied in a playoff series and playing on home ice (including 0-1 in these playoffs), outscored by 0.8 goals on average in that spot. Take Colorado (10*). |
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05-21-22 | Mariners +148 v. Red Sox | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
MLB Game of the Week. My selection is on Seattle over Boston at 4:10 pm et on Saturday. The Mariners have dropped the first two games in this series but I look for them to answer back on Saturday afternoon at Fenway Park. Chris Flexen has received a ridiculous seven runs of support across his seven starts this season. Flexen has done his part, especially on the road where he has posted a 3.80 ERA, allowing three earned runs or less in all four of his outings. I expect the Mariners bats to finally step up for him on Saturday as they face Red Sox rookie Garrett Whitlock. He got off to a solid start this season, holding his first two opponents to just five hits and no earned runs over seven innings of work. Since then he's struggled, however, yielding seven earned runs including three home runs in 13 innings, covering a span of three starts. He'll be making just his second career start on four days' rest. The only previous time we saw him pitch on short rest he gave up a run on four hits and two walks and lasted just three innings in his lone loss of the season in Toronto. Note that the Red Sox bullpen hasn't fared particularly well in day games this season, recording a 5.53 ERA and 1.31 WHIP with just one save converted and three blown. In stark contrast, the Mariners 'pen has posted a 2.94 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in afternoon affairs. Take Seattle (10*). |
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05-20-22 | Fever v. Sun -15 | Top | 85-94 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Connecticut minus the points over Indiana at 7 pm et on Friday. Fresh off a 27-point rout of the Liberty in an early season revenge game last time out, I look for the Sun to continue their ascension on Friday night back home against Indiana. The Fever appear to be the worst defensive team in the WNBA, at least in the early stages of the season. A never-ending rebuild continues and while the Fever offense has shown signs of life, it might be hard-pressed to keep it going on Friday with highly-touted draft pick NaLyssa Smith now sidelined. Note that Indiana has allowed opponents to knock down 28+ field goals in all six games this season, holding only one opponent to fewer than 84 points. Even in its last two games when it limited Atlanta to just 57 and 63 field goal attempts it still got torched for 85 and 101 points. Connecticut is rested and ready having played just three games this season. We've seen the Sun round into form fairly quickly, bouncing back from a season-opening loss in New York to deliver two blowout wins. Connecticut's first three opponents have had a tough enough time just getting shots off let alone knocking them down. The Sun have limited their first three opponents to just 59, 54 and 52 FG attempts. Indiana will be hard-pressed to keep within arm's reach here. Take Connecticut (10*). |
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05-20-22 | Levante v. Rayo Vallecano UNDER 3 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 30 m | Show |
Soccer Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Rayo Vallecano and Levante at 3 pm et on Friday. With their places already assured ahead of Friday's La Liga finale, I'm not anticipating much in the way of offensive fireworks in this one. Levante would be well-advised to play cautiously here, noting that it has failed to record a clean sheet in any of its last seven matches, giving up the first goal in six of those contests. The good news is, Rayo Vallecano isn't all that imposing offensively and enters this match having gone winless across its last four contests. Note also that Vallecano has seen six of its last eight contests stay 'under' 2.5 goals. It has enjoyed a successful campaign here at home this season, where it actually sits 10th in the La Liga table when only considering home matches. There, we've seen it yield just 18 goals in 18 matches - an impressive accomplishment in its own right. Take the under (10*). |
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05-19-22 | Lightning v. Panthers -155 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -155 | 32 h 28 m | Show |
Second Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Florida over Tampa Bay at 7 pm et on Thursday. We missed with the Panthers in Game 1. I can't help but think after grabbing an early 1-0 lead they thought the Lightning would just roll over, especially with Brayden Point sidelined and coming off a grueling seven-game series against the Leafs that saw them rally to win the final two games. That wasn't the case of course as Tampa Bay outmuscled Florida in a 4-1 victory. Now it's on the Panthers to bounce back and I expect them to do just that on Thursday. Note that Florida checks in an incredible 13-1 when coming off a game in which it scored one goal or less over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 1.4 goals on average in that spot. Perhaps better still, the Panthers are 20-3 when playing at home after allowing 3+ goals in consecutive games over the same stretch, outscoring opponents by 2.1 goals on average while putting up an incredible 4.7 goals per contest. We know this is a critical contest for the Panthers as they can ill afford to dig themselves an 0-2 hole the way they did against the Lightning in last year's opening round playoff series. As I've noted previously, long winning streaks just aren't commonplace in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. I suppose I should have taken my own advice in Game 1 of this series as the Panthers were looking for a fourth straight win. Now it's the Lightning that will be aiming to win a fourth consecutive game. I expect them to fall short. Take Florida (10*). |
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05-18-22 | White Sox -150 v. Royals | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -150 | 14 h 53 m | Show |
A.L. First Five Innings Game of the Month. My selection is on Chicago first five innings over Kansas City at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Royals got the better of the White Sox in the second half of yesterday's day-night double-header but I look for Chicago to answer back, at least early on, in Wednesday's contest. We'll play the first five innings only in this one as we're not all that interested in involving a White Sox bullpen that entered yesterday's action sporting an ERA north of eight and a WHIP approaching 1.80 over the last seven games. Lucas Giolito will get the start for Chicago on Wednesday. Covid quarantine gave him a couple of extra days off since his last outing, perhaps a good thing after he worked at least into the sixth inning in each of his last three starts. He was sharp last time out, allowing just one earned run over seven innings in a 4-1 victory over the Guardians. Zack Greinke will counter for Kansas City. He'll be making his second consecutive start on four days' rest and struggled in his most recent outing, allowing five earned runs over 4 2/3 innings in Colorado. He's been tagged for 18 hits and seven earned runs over his last two starts, covering a span of just 10 1/3 innings. This will be Chicago's second look at Greinke in less than a month after reaching him for three earned runs over six innings in a 7-3 victory on April 27th. Look for the Sox to improve on those numbers early in this game. Take Chicago first five innings (10*). |
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05-18-22 | Rangers v. Hurricanes UNDER 6 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 30 h 6 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Second Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Carolina at 7 pm et on Wednesday. I don't expect this series to play out anything like these two teams' high-scoring opening round series'. We inexplicably saw 7+ goals in all seven games between the Rangers and Penguins while the Canes saw six of their seven games against the Bruins total at least six goals. I expect the scoring to settle down considerably in the round two opener between these two squads on Wednesday, noting that the 'under' is 7-1 with the Rangers coming off an overtime win this season, resulting in an average total of just 4.7 goals. The 'under' is 28-16 with the Canes playing at home against division opponents over the last two seasons, leading to an average total of only 5.2 goals. The last time these two teams faced each other here in Raleigh, the Rangers skated to a low-scoring 2-0 victory back on March 30th. The 'under' checks in 6-5 in the last 11 meetings in this series. Take the under (10*). |
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Sean Murphy ALL Sports Top Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
07-07-22 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
07-07-22 | Nationals v. Phillies OVER 10 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
07-06-22 | Mets -161 v. Reds | Top | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
07-06-22 | Angels -1.5 v. Marlins | Top | 5-2 | Win | 101 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
07-05-22 | Cubs v. Brewers OVER 8.5 | Top | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
07-05-22 | Sun -5 v. Wings | Top | 71-82 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 34 m | Show |
07-05-22 | Cardinals +130 v. Braves | Top | 1-7 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
07-04-22 | Twins v. White Sox UNDER 9.5 | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
07-04-22 | Mercury v. Sparks UNDER 169.5 | Top | 75-78 | Win | 100 | 7 h 23 m | Show |
07-03-22 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies UNDER 11.5 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 23 m | Show |
07-02-22 | Red Sox -140 v. Cubs | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -140 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
07-02-22 | Angels +1.5 v. Astros | Top | 1-9 | Loss | -160 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
07-01-22 | Rangers v. Mets -1.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
06-30-22 | Braves v. Phillies -130 | Top | 4-14 | Win | 100 | 20 h 20 m | Show |
06-29-22 | Marlins -120 v. Cardinals | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
06-29-22 | Pirates v. Nationals -124 | Top | 8-7 | Loss | -124 | 5 h 11 m | Show |
06-28-22 | Orioles v. Mariners UNDER 7.5 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 7 m | Show |
06-28-22 | White Sox +117 v. Angels | Top | 11-4 | Win | 117 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
06-28-22 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Rockies | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -135 | 14 h 18 m | Show |
06-27-22 | Dodgers v. Rockies UNDER 11.5 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 25 m | Show |
06-25-22 | Sparks v. Storm -9 | Top | 85-77 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
06-25-22 | Orioles v. White Sox -1.5 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 27 m | Show |
06-24-22 | Hamilton v. Winnipeg OVER 42.5 | Top | 12-26 | Loss | -110 | 80 h 56 m | Show |
06-24-22 | Lightning v. Avalanche UNDER 6 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 34 h 34 m | Show |
06-24-22 | Nationals +154 v. Rangers | Top | 2-1 | Win | 154 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
06-23-22 | Astros v. Yankees -121 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
06-22-22 | Avalanche +100 v. Lightning | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 36 h 14 m | Show |
06-22-22 | Guardians v. Twins UNDER 8.5 | Top | 11-10 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
06-22-22 | Nationals v. Orioles -140 | Top | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
06-21-22 | Mariners -137 v. A's | Top | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 16 h 33 m | Show |
06-21-22 | Blue Jays v. White Sox UNDER 9 | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -120 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
06-21-22 | Cardinals -125 v. Brewers | Top | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
06-20-22 | Cardinals v. Brewers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
06-20-22 | Giants v. Braves UNDER 8 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 22 h 22 m | Show |
06-18-22 | Lightning +1.5 v. Avalanche | Top | 0-7 | Loss | -200 | 54 h 44 m | Show |
06-18-22 | Calgary v. Hamilton UNDER 45.5 | Top | 33-30 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 19 m | Show |
06-18-22 | Rays -159 v. Orioles | Top | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 19 h 58 m | Show |
06-17-22 | Twins -128 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -128 | 14 h 12 m | Show |
06-17-22 | Phillies -1.5 v. Nationals | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 40 m | Show |
06-16-22 | Warriors v. Celtics OVER 210.5 | Top | 103-90 | Loss | -108 | 61 h 24 m | Show |
06-15-22 | Orlando City SC v. New England OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -140 | 23 h 32 m | Show |
06-14-22 | Rays v. Yankees UNDER 8 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 16 m | Show |
06-13-22 | Royals v. Giants OVER 8 | Top | 2-6 | Push | 0 | 14 h 12 m | Show |
06-13-22 | Celtics +3.5 v. Warriors | Top | 94-104 | Loss | -110 | 60 h 23 m | Show |
06-13-22 | Marlins v. Phillies UNDER 7.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 105 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
06-12-22 | Storm v. Wings UNDER 159.5 | Top | 84-79 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
06-12-22 | Portugal v. Switzerland OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 13 m | Show |
06-12-22 | Marlins v. Astros -1.5 | Top | 4-9 | Win | 100 | 6 h 22 m | Show |
06-11-22 | Rangers +1.5 v. Lightning | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 34 h 49 m | Show |
06-10-22 | Warriors +4 v. Celtics | Top | 107-97 | Win | 100 | 35 h 53 m | Show |
06-10-22 | Ottawa v. Winnipeg UNDER 48 | Top | 17-19 | Win | 100 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
06-10-22 | Storm -2.5 v. Wings | Top | 89-88 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
06-10-22 | France -135 v. Austria | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -135 | 7 h 8 m | Show |
06-09-22 | Lightning v. Rangers OVER 5.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
06-08-22 | Warriors v. Celtics OVER 212.5 | Top | 100-116 | Win | 100 | 59 h 11 m | Show |
06-08-22 | Poland v. Belgium OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 32 m | Show |
06-07-22 | Rangers v. Lightning -164 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 34 h 14 m | Show |
06-07-22 | Phillies v. Brewers -108 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
06-07-22 | Lynx v. Liberty -2.5 | Top | 69-88 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
06-06-22 | Avalanche v. Oilers UNDER 7 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -120 | 14 h 46 m | Show |
06-06-22 | Mariners v. Astros -154 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -154 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
06-05-22 | Mystics v. Sky OVER 156 | Top | 82-91 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
06-05-22 | Rangers v. Lightning -170 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 43 m | Show |
06-05-22 | Astros -220 v. Royals | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 44 m | Show |
06-04-22 | Red Sox v. A's UNDER 7.5 | Top | 8-0 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
06-03-22 | Wings v. Storm -5.5 | Top | 68-51 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
06-03-22 | Braves v. Rockies UNDER 11.5 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
06-03-22 | Denmark v. France OVER 2.5 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 110 | 7 h 8 m | Show |
06-03-22 | Cardinals +105 v. Cubs | Top | 14-5 | Win | 105 | 6 h 56 m | Show |
06-02-22 | Mets v. Dodgers -155 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 15 h 41 m | Show |
06-02-22 | Celtics v. Warriors -3.5 | Top | 120-108 | Loss | -110 | 84 h 56 m | Show |
05-31-22 | Oilers v. Avalanche UNDER 7 | Top | 6-8 | Loss | -129 | 34 h 15 m | Show |
05-30-22 | Rangers v. Hurricanes OVER 5.5 | Top | 6-2 | Win | 125 | 36 h 33 m | Show |
05-29-22 | Celtics -140 v. Heat | Top | 100-96 | Win | 100 | 37 h 10 m | Show |
05-28-22 | Hurricanes v. Rangers -106 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 33 h 20 m | Show |
05-28-22 | Real Madrid +0.5 v. Liverpool | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 32 h 36 m | Show |
05-28-22 | Brewers -112 v. Cardinals | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -112 | 7 h 2 m | Show |
05-27-22 | Heat v. Celtics OVER 200.5 | Top | 111-103 | Win | 100 | 24 h 35 m | Show |
05-27-22 | Heat +9 v. Celtics | Top | 111-103 | Win | 100 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
05-27-22 | Avalanche -168 v. Blues | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 23 h 48 m | Show |
05-26-22 | Oilers v. Flames -145 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -145 | 15 h 20 m | Show |
05-26-22 | Mavs v. Warriors -6.5 | Top | 110-120 | Win | 100 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
05-25-22 | Celtics v. Heat +1.5 | Top | 93-80 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 1 m | Show |
05-25-22 | Phillies v. Braves UNDER 8.5 | Top | 4-8 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
05-25-22 | Orioles v. Yankees OVER 7.5 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
05-24-22 | Warriors v. Mavs OVER 215.5 | Top | 109-119 | Win | 100 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
05-23-22 | Avalanche v. Blues +1.5 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -165 | 15 h 10 m | Show |
05-23-22 | Brewers +100 v. Padres | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 10 m | Show |
05-23-22 | Heat v. Celtics UNDER 208 | Top | 82-102 | Win | 100 | 14 h 29 m | Show |
05-22-22 | Warriors v. Mavs UNDER 219 | Top | 109-100 | Win | 100 | 15 h 39 m | Show |
05-22-22 | Padres v. Giants -126 | Top | 10-1 | Loss | -126 | 7 h 58 m | Show |
05-22-22 | Sky v. Mystics OVER 157.5 | Top | 82-73 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
05-21-22 | Heat +6.5 v. Celtics | Top | 109-103 | Win | 100 | 34 h 52 m | Show |
05-21-22 | Avalanche -161 v. Blues | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 33 h 3 m | Show |
05-21-22 | Mariners +148 v. Red Sox | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
05-20-22 | Fever v. Sun -15 | Top | 85-94 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
05-20-22 | Levante v. Rayo Vallecano UNDER 3 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 30 m | Show |
05-19-22 | Lightning v. Panthers -155 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -155 | 32 h 28 m | Show |
05-18-22 | White Sox -150 v. Royals | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -150 | 14 h 53 m | Show |
05-18-22 | Rangers v. Hurricanes UNDER 6 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 30 h 6 m | Show |