Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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08-09-21 | Reds v. Indians OVER 9.5 | Top | 3-9 | Win | 100 | 9 h 36 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Cincinnati and Cleveland at 6:10 pm et on Monday. We missed with the Reds 'over' yesterday afternoon but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as they open a road trip in Cleveland on Monday. First, it's worth noting that the wind is expected to be blowing out to right-center field in this one, ideal conditions for the bats at Progressive Field. Luis Castillo will take the ball for the Reds. While he has certainly turned things around with a terrific stretch of performances, this is by no means an ideal spot as he starts on just four days' rest for the third consecutive outing. While the Indians struggled against Castillo in their first look at him back in 2019, they've figured him out since, scoring seven earned runs in just nine innings against him since last season, including a 9-2 victory here in Cleveland back in May. Behind Castillo is a Reds bullpen that really struggled in night games this season, posting a collective 5.45 ERA and 1.50 WHIP with 19 saves converted and 16 blown. Sam Hentges will get a spot start for the Indians. He's yet to find much success at the big league level and the jury is still out as to whether he's capable of rounding into a major league starter. In three home starts this season, the left-hander has recorded an ugly 9.31 ERA and 2.38 WHIP. That's despite tossing 4 2/3 shutout innings here in his big league debut back in mid-May. Hentges is averaging just under 3 2/3 innings per start and now faces a Reds club that has averaged a whopping seven runs per game over the last week. While the Indians bullpen has been solid this season, it has struggled in interleague play, recording a collective 4.92 ERA and 1.47 WHIP with only three saves converted and four blown in 56 2/3 innings of work. Take the over (10*). |
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08-08-21 | Angels v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
MLB Run-Line Game of the Month. My selection is on the Dodgers -1.5 runs over the Angels at 4:10 pm et on Sunday. The Dodgers bounced back from a disappointing extra innings loss on Friday with a come-from-behind 5-3 victory last night. I look for them to pick up right where they left off on Sunday as they wrap up the series win in convincing fashion. Reid Detmers will get a second straight turn in the rotation for the Angels despite pitching poorly in his big league debut. Detmers was actually favored in that start, at home against the A's, but ultimately lost the game by a lopsided 8-3 score. He gave up six hits and six earned runs, including two home runs, while striking out only two and walking two over 4 1/3 innings. It's hard to envision him faring much better against an even tougher opponent here. While the Angels bullpen has pitched better lately, this is by no means an ideal spot as they've posted a collective 5.26 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in day games this season. To make matters worse, the Halos inexplicably haven't had a day off since way back on July 21st. Meanwhile, the Dodgers will hand the ball to Walker Buehler. All he's done in 13 home starts this season is post a 2.16 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. Better still, he has recorded a sparkling 0.47 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in three daytime outings with the Dodgers winning all three of those games. The Dodgers bullpen has of course been effective at home this season, recording a collective 3.50 ERA and 1.15 WHIP with 18 saves converted and only nine blown (entering last night's action). Take the Dodgers -1.5 runs (10*). |
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08-07-21 | Mariners v. Yankees OVER 10 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -106 | 5 h 47 m | Show |
MLB Daytime Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and New York at 1:05 pm et on Saturday. We won with the first five innings 'over' in Mariners starter Chris Flexen's most recent outing. He actually pitched well in that game, allowing only two earned runs in 6 2/3 innings of work against the Rays. Road success hasn't been the norm for Flexen this season, however, as he's posted a 5.44 ERA and 1.57 WHIP in eight starts away from home. Note that the 'over' has gone a perfect 8-0 in his eight previous road starts. Behind Flexen is a Mariners bullpen that has already coughed up the first two games in this series and entered last night's action sporting a collective 4.85 ERA and 1.37 WHIP with 15 saves converted and 13 blown away from home this season. With Flexen averaging just 5.6 innings per start on the road this season, we should see plenty of the M's relief corps today. Andrew Heaney will counter for New York. His Yankees debut did not go well at all as he was lit up for four home runs (all four were solo shots so the damage could have been worse) in just four innings of work against the Orioles. Now he makes a second straight start on just four days' rest and faces a familiar Mariners lineup (from his days with the Angels in the A.L. West) that has torched him for eight earned runs in just 7 1/3 innings this season. Heaney didn't issue a walk in his last start but command has been an issue for the left-hander. After giving up those four home runs last time out, look for him to try to be a little too perfect today and that could lead to plenty of Mariners base-runners. With the Yankees having not had a day off since July 26th, their bullpen comes in overworked. Keep in mind, this is a bullpen that has posted a 3.85 ERA and 1.26 WHIP with only 11 saves converted and eight blown at home (entering last night's action), with that ERA rising to 4.50 in day games this season. Take the over (10*). |
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08-06-21 | Tigers v. Indians -149 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 21 h 28 m | Show |
A.L. Central Game of the Month. My selection is on Cleveland over Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Friday. The Indians did not enjoy a great road trip by any stretch of the imagination as they fell below the .500 mark with three consecutive losses in Toronto to close it out. I do look for them to get back in the win column on Friday, however, as they welcome the Detroit Tigers. Detroit just wrapped up a series win at home against the Red Sox yesterday, winning in blowout fashion in the series-finale. The Tigers will be hard-pressed to repeat that effort on Friday though as they hit the road where they check in 12 games under .500 on the season. Matt Manning will get another turn in the rotation for Detroit. He got lit up for nine earned runs in 3 2/3 innings in his lone previous start against the Tribe back in late June. While he's been marginally better since then, that's not saying much. Manning has topped out at four strikeouts while issuing multiple walks in five of eight big league starts. He checks in sporting an ugly 8.19 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in four road starts with the Tigers losing all four of those games. Behind Manning is a Tigers bullpen that has not performed well on the road this season, recording a collective 6.31 ERA and 1.65 WHIP with 11 saves converted and eight blown. Cal Quantrill will counter for Cleveland. He got off to a terrible start this season but has since righted the ship, allowing just three earned runs over his last four starts, covering a span of 23 innings of work. He's made seven home starts this season and has held up well, posting a 3.67 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. The Indians bullpen has been terrific at home this season, posting a collective 3.21 ERA and 1.25 WHIP with 10 saves converted and only five blown. Take Cleveland (10*). |
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08-05-21 | Hamilton v. Winnipeg UNDER 51.5 | Top | 6-19 | Win | 100 | 32 h 40 m | Show |
CFL Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Hamilton and Winnipeg at 8:30 pm et on Thursday. The 2021 CFL opener features a rematch of the last CFL game that was played - the 2019 Grey Cup between the Blue Bombers and Tiger-Cats. I'm expecting a lower-scoring affair than most as these two offenses take some time to settle into a groove after no preseason games and no real game action since that title showdown in 2019. The Blue Bombers return most of the key pieces from that Grey Cup winning squad. With that being said, they're the underdog for a reason in this one. RB Andrew Harris isn't expected to play on Thursday and while he is supported by a couple of capable backs, his absence certainly can't be overlooked. Keep in mind the Bombers are ushering in a new offensive era in some respects with former CFL quarterback Buck Pierce taking over the offensive coordinator reins from Paul LaPolice, who has moved on to Ottawa to take on a head coaching role. LaPolice squeezed every bit of potential he could out of this offense as the season went on in 2019. I simply question whether we'll see an explosive attack right out of the gates here in 2021 with what I would consider a less-than-imposing wide receiving corps at Collaros' disposal. Defensively, the Bombers are set up well with a cohesive unit that boasts plenty of returning starters keyed by Willie Jefferson - the league's reigning Most Outstanding Defensive Player. This is a group that enters the new season with a chip on its shoulder after some felt it 'fluked' its way to a Grey Cup championship. I'm not on board with that line of thinking - this defense absolutely terrorized Dane Evans in the 2019 Grey Cup, camping out in the backfield and will now face a Hamilton offensive line that no longer has Ryker Matthews protecting Jeremiah Masoli's blind side. With many of the Bombers defensive players training together in the offseason (a long one at that), this is a group that should hit the ground running on Thursday night. The Tiger-Cats need to restock the cupboard in some sense defensively but there's still plenty of talent to go around, and I don't think this is a bad opening night matchup for them to get their legs back under them. Simoni Lawrence is still on board to lead the defense - we're talking about perhaps the best-coached defense in the entire CFL so I certainly wouldn't expect it to lay an egg on Thursday. Offensively, there's not a true QB controversy in Hamilton but starter Jeremiah Masoli has to feel a bit of pressure as he opens the campaign with backup Dane Evans breathing down his neck. While the duo of Brandon Banks and Bralon Addison is electric, I expect the Blue Bombers to do what they can to take away the big hitters down the field and Hamilton won't shy away from pounding the football with newly-acquired feature back Don Jackson and Sean Thomas-Erlington back healthy. There's a lot of familiarity between these two teams with both rosters remaining relatively intact and with so much time to gameplan for the season-opener following no preseason games, I think we'll see a tightly-contested, relatively low-scoring affair on Thursday night. Take the under (10*). |
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08-05-21 | Twins v. Astros UNDER 9.5 | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 24 m | Show |
A.L. Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Houston at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. I like the way this one sets up as a relatively low-scoring affair in Houston on Thursday night. The Twins were of course sellers prior to the trade deadline and are now left with a lineup that could probably fit in at triple-A ball. With that being said, they are coming off a high-scoring series against the Reds as they abused an awful Cincinnati bullpen. They're not likely to be so fortunate here, however, as the Astros 'pen has posted a collective 3.91 ERA and 1.24 WHIP with 11 saves converted and only five blown at home this season. It would certainly be understandable if the Astros lacked some focus at the plate in this one as they return home after a long road trip that included stops against the division rival Mariners in Seattle and two of the N.L.'s best teams in the Giants and Dodgers. Griffin Jax will take the ball for Minnesota. He was slated to start yesterday but that was pushed back a day allowing him to pitch on a full five days' rest here. Each of his first three big league starts have come on the road so he's battle-tested in a sense. After struggling in his first outing he's settled down to allow just two earned runs in nine innings over his last two starts. This will be just his fourth outing since July 3rd so his arm is fresh. I expect him to perhaps go deeper into this game than he has previously, having never gone more than five innings. He'll have the advantage of facing the Astros for the first time. Framber Valdez will counter for Houston. He's faced the Twins twice during his career and has managed them well on both occasions, allowing just two earned runs in 12 1/3 innings. He'll be making his fourth straight start on at least five days' rest. While his command hasn't been there over his last couple of starts he's made up for it by allowing just four hits while striking out 10 in 11 innings of work. The Twins are a weaker offensive club both on the road and against left-handed pitching and I don't envision them inflicting much damage against Valdez here. Take the under (10*). |
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08-03-21 | Braves v. Cardinals UNDER 9 | Top | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 22 h 26 m | Show |
N.L. Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and St. Louis at 8:15 pm et on Tuesday. The Braves have seen just three of their last nine games go 'over' the total and I expect that trend to continue on Tuesday night in St. Louis. While Atlanta has hit better against left-handed pitching this season it has actually scored a grand total of just one run in its last two games against southpaw starters. Also note that it has already seen Cards newly-acquired left-hander Jon Lester twice this season and has managed to score just four earned runs in 10 2/3 innings with the 'under' cashing in both of those games. Lester enters this start on extended rest but will likely still have a short leash, noting that he averages less than five innings per start this season. The good news is that behind Lester is an improving Cardinals bullpen that comes off an off day on Monday and has posted a collective 3.90 ERA and 1.33 WHIP with 19 saves converted and only three blown at home this season. Max Fried gets the nod for Atlanta. He should benefit from facing a Cards club that averages just 3.6 runs per game against lefties this season. Fried already limited St. Louis to just one earned run over seven innings back in June. His road numbers aren't good this season but he enters this outing on a full five days' rest and has posted a 2.84 ERA and 1.16 WHIP over his last three starts overall, with two of those coming on the road. Like the Cards 'pen, the Braves relief corps has been improving and checks in with a 4.27 ERA and 1.46 WHIP on the road this season, converting 13 saves while blowing only five. Take the under (10*). |
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08-03-21 | Mariners v. Rays -152 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -152 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
American League Game of the Year. My selection is on Tampa Bay over Seattle at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. We missed with the Rays last night (but won with the first five innings 'over') as they fell behind early and could never recover in an eventual 8-2 loss. I won't hesitate to go back to the well on Tuesday, however, as they look to bounce back. Yusei Kikuchi will take the ball for Seattle. He has labored through his last four starts, allowing 18 earned runs in only 21 innings of work. Note that he checks in sporting a 5.11 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in 12 nighttime starts this season with the Mariners losing seven of those games. While he does average 5.9 innings per start on the road, he's lasted beyond the fifth inning just once in his last four outings. That spells trouble here as the Mariners bullpen entered last night's action with a collective 4.96 ERA and 1.41 WHIP with 14 saves converted and 12 blown on the road this season. Luis Patino will counter for Tampa Bay. He has to be feeling pretty good about himself after lasting a career-high six shutout innings in a 14-0 rout of the Yankees in his most recent start. Patino has made three home starts this season and has looked comfortable, posting a 0.71 ERA and 0.79 WHIP in 12 2/3 innings of work. Patino isn't a strong candidate to work deep into the game again on Tuesday (he averages well below five innings per start this season) but that's not a big concern as the Rays bullpen has been terrific here at home, entering last night's action sporting a collective 2.57 ERA and 1.03 WHIP with 12 saves converted and only three blown this season. Finally, I think it's worth noting that the Rays rested two of their best players in last night's series-opener in Austin Meadows and Wander Franco. Meadows is 5-for-15 with three extra-base hits including two home runs and five RBI over his last four games while Franco has really been heating up, going 6-for-11 with three extra-base hits and four RBI over his last three contests. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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08-02-21 | Mariners v. Rays OVER 8.5 | Top | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 21 h 19 m | Show |
A.L. First Five Innings Total of the Month. My selection is on the first five innings 'over' between Seattle and Tampa Bay at 7:10 pm et on Monday. I'm anticipating a high-scoring start on Monday's showdown between the Mariners and Rays in St. Petersburg. Chris Flexen gets the start for Seattle. The wheels have come off for him over his last couple of starts as he's been tagged for nine earned runs on 15 hits over just 9 1/3 innings of work. Note that he's recorded a grand total of only six strikeouts over his last three outings. He owns a 5.92 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in seven road starts this season with the 'over' cashing in all seven of those contests. To make matters worse he faces a Rays club that he has faced once before, back in 2018, when he gave up five earned runs and exited after just three innings. Michael Wacha will counter for Tampa Bay. He's been terrific at home this season but I don't have a great deal of confidence in him as he pitches on just four days' rest here, and faces a Mariners club that has certainly had his number, facing him twice since 2019, including once already this season, scoring nine earned runs on 17 hits while drawing three walks and striking out only twice in just seven innings. It's worth noting that Wacha has allowed 11 earned runs on 22 hits in just 14 1/3 innings when pitching on four days' rest this season. By playing the first five innings only we'll look to avoid (for the most part) a Rays bullpen that has posted a collective 2.56 ERA and 1.01 WHIP at home this season. Take the first five innings over (10*). |
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08-01-21 | Twins v. Cardinals -133 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 7 h 42 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Game of the Month. My selection is on St. Louis over Minnesota at 2:15 pm et on Sunday. The Cardinals stumbled last night, losing 8-1 against the Twins (we won with the 'over'). I expect them to bounce back on Sunday afternoon. Michael Pineda will take the ball for the Twins. He owns a 4.42 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in four road starts this season. Note that he's averaging just 4 2/3 innings per start away from home which is a concern given the Twins bullpen has posted a 4.90 ERA and 1.40 WHIP on the road this season. St. Louis will hand the ball to veteran Adam Wainwright. He's been locked in lately, working at least six innings in nine of his last 10 starts. Wainwright has been rock solid at home, recording a 2.70 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in 12 home starts with the Cards winning seven of those. While he will be pitching on just four days' rest in this one that's not overly concerning when you consider the last time he did, he allowed just one earned run over seven innings. The Cards bullpen has struggled at times this season but has shown positive signs lately, entering last night's game sporting a 3.20 ERA and 1.26 WHIP over their last seven contests. They've converted 19 saves while blowing only three at home this season. Take St. Louis (10*). |
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07-31-21 | A's v. Angels OVER 10 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -113 | 5 h 24 m | Show |
MLB Daytime Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Oakland and Los Angeles at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. We've seen consecutive low-scoring games to open this series but I expect a different story to unfold in Anaheim on Saturday. Left-hander Cole Irvin will take the ball for Oakland. The Angels will be getting their fourth look at him already this season. They enjoyed plenty of success in their first two tries against him before getting shut out over seven innings against him a couple of weeks ago (we actually won with the A's in that game). Note that the Angels have been a better offensive team both at home and against left-handed starting pitching this season. Prior to getting shut out the last two nights, the Halos had scored 23 runs in their previous four contests. Irvin has generally been weaker in day games this season, recording a 4.14 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 10 starts. Behind Irvin is an uneven A's bullpen that has posted a collective 3.40 ERA and 1.30 WHIP on the road this season with 12 saves converted and 10 blown. Jaime Barria will counter for Los Angeles. He pitched well in his first start of the season last time out but going back further has generally struggled at the big league level. The A's didn't do much against him back in 2018 but then in 2019 scored five runs, four of them earned, in just four innings. Note that the A's have actually been a better offensive team on the road than at home this season. The real key to the A's success here could be the way they match up against the Angels bullpen. Los Angeles hasn't had a day off since July 21st and its 'pen has struggled all season, particularly in day games where it owns a collective 5.54 ERA and 1.45 WHIP with nine saves converted and five blown. Take the over (10*). |
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07-30-21 | Indians v. White Sox UNDER 8.5 | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -111 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
MLB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Friday. Neither of these teams are tearing the cover off the ball right now - in fact, quite the opposite. I'm anticipating a relatively low-scoring affair in Friday's series-opener. Jean-Carlos Mejia will take the ball for the Indians. He has admittedly struggled this season - his numbers are downright ugly. However, he did match a season-high by going six innings in his most recent start and now gets the opportunity to face the White Sox for the first time in his career, and do so on a full five days' rest. Note that his last two starts have come against opponents he's been facing for the second time in less than a month. I'll also point out that Mejia has struck out 14 in his last two outings - showing some clear progress after recording just 14 strikeouts in his previous four starts combined. Mejia will likely have a short leash here though, noting that he averages less than four innings per start on the road this season. That's ok with us as the Indians bullpen has been solid, recording a 3.03 ERA and 1.21 WHIP with 14 saves converted and only three blown against division opponents this season. Lance Lynn will counter for Chicago. He's been lights out at home this season, posting a 1.64 ERA and 0.86 WHIP in 11 home starts, with the 'over' cashing in just one of those games. Going back over his last five outings, Lynn has given up just four earned runs in 28 innings of work. Behind Lynn is one of the freshest bullpens in baseball as the White Sox relief corps has logged just over 320 innings this season. Like the Indians, the White Sox 'pen has fared well against division opponents, posting a collective 3.27 ERA and 1.06 WHIP with 14 saves converted and eight blown entering last night's action. Take the under (10*). |
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07-29-21 | Rockies v. Padres UNDER 8 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
N.L. First Five Innings Total of the Month. My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between Colorado and San Diego at 10:10 pm et on Thursday. The Padres are coming off consecutive high-scoring affairs against the A's but I look for a different story to unfold against the Rockies on Thursday - at least in the early stages of this one. Kyle Freeland will take the ball for the Rockies. The Padres will be seeing him for the third time this season and while they've had some previous success against him, he does come into this start pitching well, noting that he's allowed three earned runs or less in six straight starts. The 'under' has actually cashed in five of his six road outings this season. I'll also point out that the Padres offense has been slightly weaker both at home and against left-handed pitching this season. By playing the first five innings only we'll avoid factoring in an awful Rockies bullpen that has struggled all season, particularly away from home. Joe Musgrove will counter for San Diego. He's been outstanding at home this season but did struggle in his most recent outing against the Rockies, which did come here in San Diego. Keep in mind, he was pitching on just four days' rest in that one. Here, he starts on a full five days' rest and should improve on his stellar 2.83 ERA and 1.05 WHIP at home. Better still, Musgrove owns a 2.59 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in 13 nighttime starts this season. The Rockies have of course been a weaker offensive club both on the road and against right-handed pitching this season. Take the first five innings under (10*). |
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07-27-21 | Diamondbacks v. Rangers -148 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
MLB Game of the Month. My selection is on Texas over Arizona at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. We've been picking on the D'Backs lately, fading them in consecutive games over the weekend but only managing to earn a 1-1 split. Here, I'll go back to the well again as we go against Arizona when it opens a series in Texas on Tuesday night. Of course the Rangers haven't won a game since July 9th but they've also played their last 10 on the road so it's not as if many wins were to be expected as they've generally been awful away from home. Taylor Widener will take the ball for the Snakes. He'll get a third straight turn in the rotation out of necessity only as he hasn't pitched particularly well. In his last two outings he's allowed 11 hits and six earned runs in just nine innings of work. With Widener unlikely to work deep into the game we should see plenty of a D'Backs bullpen that has really struggled on the road this season, converting fewer saves than they've blown. Dane Dunning will counter for Texas. He's been at his best here at home this season, with one of the strongest home-road dichotomies we've seen from any starter in baseball. In his last two home outings he has allowed just six hits and three earned runs in 10 innings of work. While Dunning also isn't a strong candidate to last deep into the game, the Rangers bullpen has actually been terrific at home this season. While both of these teams are simply playing out the string in the dog days of Summer, I like the Rangers to secure the victory on Tuesday night. Take Texas (10*). |
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07-26-21 | Reds v. Cubs -125 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
N.L. Central Game of the Month. My selection is on Chicago over Cincinnati at 8:05 pm et on Monday. The Reds have reeled off three straight wins but I look for their brief winning streak to come to an end on Monday night in Chicago. Wade Miley will take the ball for Cincinnati. He'll be making his third start of the season against Chicago and while he's allowed just four earned runs in 11 2/3 innings it's not as if he's been dominant, giving up 15 hits while striking out only six. He also faced the Cubs once last season and didn't make it through the second inning, allowing five earned runs before exiting. Keep in mind, the Cubs have been a better offensive club both against left-handers and at home this season. The Reds bullpen has posted a collective 4.73 ERA and 1.45 WHIP on the road this season. Worse still, they've recorded a 5.61 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in night games. Kyle Hendricks will counter for Chicago. He has righted the ship after a rocky start to the season, allowing two earned runs or less in seven of his last eight starts. He has posted a respectable 3.90 ERA and 1.27 WHIP at home this season with the Cubs winning six of his 10 starts. Behind Hendricks is an excellent Cubs bullpen that entered yesterday's action sporting a 3.30 ERA and 1.22 WHIP with 14 saves converted and only three blown at home this season. Take Chicago (10*). |
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07-25-21 | Canada v. Costa Rica | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
Gold Cup Game of the Year. My selection is on Costa Rica pk'em (draw no bet) over Canada at 7 pm et on Sunday. Credit Canada for battling through key injuries to Jonathan David and Alphonso Davies to get to this stage of the tournament but now with striker Cyle Larin and midfield Ayo Akinola missing due to injury as well, I believe getting past an improving Costa Rica squad will be a bridge too far. Costa Rica has impressed in this tournament, certainly performing better than I expect this veteran squad to heading in. Keep in mind, Costa Rica does find itself ranked above Canada in the FIFA world rankings so the case can certainly be made that the wrong side is being favored here (ever so slightly). Canada went all out in its final Group Stage match against the USA, but ultimately failed to find the back of the net despite applying waves of pressure throughout the match. The low posted total gives us a hint of what to expect here as well as I suspect the Canadians will once again have a tough time finding goals with what could only be considered their 'B' squad at this point. Costa Rica will be without goalkeeper Leonel Moreira for this match after he was given a red card against Jamaica. However, this is still a well-organized Costa Rican defense that should prove difficult to break down and I don't expect it to afford the Canadians a great deal of scoring chances. Costa Rica has been clinical in attack from the get-go in this tournament and while this will arguably be its toughest test to date, I look for Ariel Lassiter in particular to shine up front in this match. Take Costa Rica pk/draw no bet (10*). |
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07-23-21 | Tigers +112 v. Royals | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
American League F5 Innings Game of the Month. My selection is on Detroit first five innings over Kansas City at 8:10 pm et on Friday. The Tigers are red hot right now and I like them to at least get off to a strong start against the Royals on Friday night in Kansas City. Former Royal Wily Peralta has been a pleasant surprise in the Tigers rotation this season. He checks in sporting a stellar 2.45 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in four road starts. He came out of the All-Star break tossing seven shutout innings against the Twins last time out. With opponents hitting sub-.200 against him this season, I like his chances of keeping the Royals lukewarm bats at bay on Friday night. What I don't want is any part of the Tigers bullpen on the road, where they've posted a collective 6.49 ERA and 1.63 WHIP with 10 saves converted and seven blown this season. While their bullpen was forced to work extended innings in yesterday's 7-5 win over the Rangers, the Royals 'pen was idle. Kris Bubic will take the ball for Kansas City. He's generally been awful this season, failing to even last five innings in any of his last five starts. In four home outings he has recorded a 4.58 ERA and 1.68 WHIP. Note that over his last four starts he has been tagged for a whopping 11 home runs in 17 innings of work. The Tigers have seen Bubic twice since last September, scoring six earned runs on 14 hits off of him over 9 2/3 innings. Take Detroit first five innings (10*). |
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07-23-21 | Padres v. Marlins OVER 8 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -101 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
MLB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between San Diego and Miami at 7:10 pm et on Friday. |
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07-21-21 | Cubs v. Cardinals UNDER 8 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 1 m | Show |
MLB Rivalry Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and St. Louis at 8:15 pm et on Wednesday. We've seen consecutive high-scoring games to open this series but I look for a different story to unfold on Wednesday. Kyle Hendricks will make his fourth start against the Cardinals this season and sixth going back to the start of last season. The Cards have never really been able to figure the veteran right-hander out and I don't expect them to do so tonight either. In five previous games against Hendricks since last August, St. Louis has never managed to score more than three earned runs - held to two earned runs or less in each of their last four tries against him. Just before the All-Star break, Hendricks held the Cards to two earned runs over 6 1/3 innings. Note that Hendricks checks in sporting a 3.40 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in nine road starts this season with the 'under' cashing in five of those games. With Hendricks averaging over six innings per start on the road this season we might not need too much help from the Cubs bullpen but it's worth noting that they entered last night's action sporting a solid 3.37 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in night games this season with 11 converted saves and only four blown. Adam Wainwright will counter for St. Louis. He's been outstanding at home this season, recording a 2.84 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in 11 starts with the 'under' going 8-3 in those games. The Cubs will be seeing him for the third time since last September, having managed just two earned runs on seven hits off of him in their last two tries, covering a span of 14 1/3 innings. While Wainwright will be starting on just four days' rest that's not as big of a concern given he had a 10 days between starts previously thanks to the All-Star break. While the Cards bullpen has posted outstanding numbers across the board this season, they did enter last night's contest having converted an incredible 18 saves while blowing only one here at home this season. The Cubs offense busted out last night but prior to that had averaged just 3.6 runs per game on the road this season. Take the under (10*). |
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07-21-21 | Twins v. White Sox -135 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -135 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
MLB Blowout Game of the Week. My selection is on Chicago over Minnesota at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Twins took the opener of this series but the White Sox have answered back with consecutive wins since and I look for them to take Wednesday's contest as well. Michael Pineda will make his second start since returning from the I.L. His first actually came against these same White Sox as we was tagged for 12 hits and five earned runs over 5 1/3 innings in a 6-1 home loss on July 7th. Since last season, the Sox have seen Pineda three times, scoring 10 earned runs on 22 hits over 16 2/3 innings. Pineda recorded just 15 strikeouts in those three outings. Note that Pineda checks in sporting a 5.40 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in three road starts this season. Worse still, he has posted a 5.84 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in three nighttime starts. Behind Pineda is a Twins bullpen that has recorded a collective 5.56 ERA and 1.43 WHIP with 10 saves converted and six blown at night this season. Keep in mind, this is a Minnesota team that has gone 18-30 on the road this season. Chicago will counter with Dylan Cease. He labored through his last start against the Twins on July 5th but that was in Minnesota. He's been a completely different pitcher here at home, posting a 2.15 ERA and 1.09 WHIP with the White Sox winning seven of his nine starts. He'll be making his third straight start on four days' rest but that's not overly concerning when you consider the last time he did it, he tossed seven shutout innings against the Tigers on June 6th, with that start also coming here at home. After struggling in his first two career starts against Minnesota, Cease has generally sorted it out, recording 26 strikeouts while posting a 3-1 team record in his last four outings against the Twins, covering a span of 21 innings. The White Sox bullpen has been outstanding in division games this season, posting a collective 3.14 ERA and 1.06 WHIP with 13 saves converted and only six blown. Their relief corps is among the freshest in baseball, having entered last night's action logging just 290 2/3 innings. For context, some other bullpens have already topped the 400-inning mark. Take Chicago (10*). |
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07-20-21 | Guadeloupe v. Suriname OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 120 | 33 h 59 m | Show |
Gold Cup Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' 2.5 goals between Suriname and Guadeloupe at 7 pm et on Tuesday. Both of these teams have come away pointless through their first two matches in the tournament and will be heading home following this contest on Tuesday. With that being said, both have shown plenty of promise, particularly on the attack, and I expect to see a wide-open, free-flowing affair on Tuesday night in Houston. Suriname has fired an incredible 26 shots through its first two matches, despite facing two of the strongest teams in the tournament in Jamaica and Costa Rica. Gleofilo Vlijter has been particularly impressive and needs just one more goal to pull even for the most in his country's history. Here, Suriname should find the going a lot easier against what has been a rather disorganized Guadeloupe defense at times in this tournament. That's not to mention the fact that Guadeloupe goalkeeper Johann Thuram has been one of the weakest in the field. He may not even start this match, but regardless, I expect Suriname to find offensive success. Guadeloupe's strength is clearly up front where it boasts three dynamic attackers in Phaeton, Mirval and Ramothe. We've yet to see Matthias Phaeton find the back of the net but I believe a goal isn't far off for the Guadeloupe striker. We've seen numerous lapses from the Suriname defense in this tournament, most recently conceding two goals in two minutes after grabbing an early second half lead against Costa Rica last time out. We saw Suriname hold strong defensively for a half against the Costa Ricans but I actually feel that may have been a more favorable matchup defensively as Costa Rica doesn't boast the same level of speed as this young Guadeloupe squad. There's little reason for either side to sit back as both play for pride and attempt to notch a rare Gold Cup victory on Tuesday. I believe this has the potential to be one of the more entertaining, if not fundamentally or tactically impressive, matches of the tournament. The fact that we're able to play the 'over' 2.5 goals at a plus money return (at the time of writing) is a bargain in my opinion. Take the over 2.5 goals (10*). |
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07-20-21 | Angels v. A's -137 | Top | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
MLB Daytime Game of the Month. My selection is on Oakland over Los Angeles at 3:35 pm et on Tuesday. I really like the way this one sets up for the A's as they look to close out a quick two-game sweep of the Angels on Tuesday afternoon. Jose Suarez will get his third start of the season for the Angels as he takes a second consecutive turn in the rotation. After struggling mightily at the big league level the last two seasons, Suarez has been serviceable this year, but we're talking about a very small sample size. Most concerning to me is his 7:6 strikeout-to-walk ratio through eight innings of work. The Angels pretty much know what they're going to get from Suarez here - likely 4-5 innings. That leaves the bulk of the game in the hands of a poor Angels bullpen that has posted a collective 5.59 ERA and 1.45 WHIP with nine saves converted and five blown in day games this season. Last night the Los Angeles relief corps was charged with all four earned runs in just two innings of work in a 4-1 loss. Rookie James Kaprielian will counter for Oakland. He's actually been getting stronger as the season goes on, checking in with a 3.00 ERA and 1.11 WHIP over his last three outings. Note that he's worked at least into the sixth inning in five of his last six starts. Here at home he owns an incredible 1.38 ERA and 0.85 WHIP in four starts. In six daytime outings he has recorded a 2.41 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. Here, he'll be making his second start against the Angels this season but I'm not overly concerned as he's fared reasonably well when facing the same team multiple times this season. Kaprielian is averaging an impressive 6.5 innings per start at home this season so perhaps we won't need a lot of help from the A's bullpen. However, it's certainly worth noting that the A's 'pen has been at its best in day games this season, posting a collective 3.78 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. Here at home, Oakland's relief corps has converted 14 saves while blowing only three. Take Oakland (10*). |
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07-19-21 | Pirates v. Diamondbacks -128 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 15 h 20 m | Show |
N.L. First Five Innings Game of the Month. My selection is on Arizona first five innings over Pittsburgh at 9:40 pm et on Monday. The D'Backs snapped a four-game losing streak and avoided a sweep at the hands of the Cubs with a 6-4 victory here at home yesterday and I look for them to build off of that success and at least get Monday's game off to a positive start through five innings. Chase De Jong will take the ball for Pittsburgh. We now have a big enough sample size to have a good idea of what we'll get from him on the road, where he has posted a 6.16 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in four starts this season. The D'Backs have never faced De Jong but it is worth noting that they average a higher runs per game average (compared to their overall season average) both at home and against right-handed pitching this season. We'll play the first five innings only as I do respect the Pirates bullpen (despite what we saw from them in yesterday's collapse against the Mets). Note that they've converted seven saves while blowing only two on the road this season and have converted nine without a single blown save in night games. Left-hander Caleb Smith will start for Arizona. Like De Jong against the D'Backs, Smith will be facing the Pirates for the first time in his career. Keep in mind, Pittsburgh averages just 3.5 runs per game on the road this season. Smith has run into some trouble in his last couple of starts (that's an understatement when you consider he was ripped for nine earned runs in a single inning of work against the Dodgers last time out), but has generally pitched well here at home, recording a 3.95 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in five starts in the desert. We want no part of a D'Backs bullpen that has posted a collective 5.36 ERA and 1.53 WHIP with only five saves converted and eight blown here at home this season (entering yesterday's action), so we'll play the first five innings only. Take Arizona first five innings (10*). |
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07-18-21 | Red Sox v. Yankees UNDER 9.5 | Top | 1-9 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 0 m | Show |
MLB Sunday Night Baseball Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and New York at 7:05 pm et on Sunday. We saw a low-scoring, rain-shortened game between these two teams last night as the Yankees prevailed by a 3-1 score in six innings. While I'm not anticipating a true pitcher's duel here, I do think we'll see this contest stay 'under' the lofty total. Martin Perez has been a pleasant surprise for the Red Sox this season, particularly on the road where he has recorded a stellar 2.04 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in seven starts, with the 'under' cashing in six of those games. He does average less than five innings per start overall, but that number bumps up to 5 2/3 innings on the road. He'll likely have a short leash again here but that's fine as the Red Sox bullpen has recorded a collective 3.09 ERA and 1.27 WHIP with 23 saves converted and only nine blown in night games this season. While the Yankees did have Perez's number earlier in this career, he has been serviceable against them lately, allowing just three earned runs over 12 2/3 innings in his last three outings against them. Jameson Taillon didn't get his Yankees tenure off to a positive start this season but he has pitched better lately and has certainly been at his best here in the Bronx where he owns a 3.59 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 10 starts this season. He checks in having allowed two earned runs or less in four of his last five starts. Like Perez, he generally doesn't work deep into ball games, averaging just 4.9 innings per start but that number does boost to 5 1/3 innings here at home. Behind Taillon is a fresh Yankees bullpen that didn't have to work thanks to the rain (and Gerrit Cole) last night. The New York relief corps has posted a collective 3.17 ERA and 1.14 WHIP with 15 saves converted and only six blown in night games this season. Take the under (10*). |
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07-18-21 | Padres v. Nationals -104 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 7 h 47 m | Show |
N.L. Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Washington over San Diego at 3:35 pm et on Sunday. The Padres have gotten the better of the Nationals so far in this series (although we'll have to wait for the conclusion of last night's game prior to this one following the unfortunate events that halted proceedings on Saturday), but I expect the Nats to answer back with their ace Max Scherzer on the hill on Sunday afternoon. Joe Musgrove gets the call for the visiting Padres. He's been good, but certainly not great on the road this season where he owns a 3.75 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. Worse still, he has posted a 4.79 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in five daytime starts. While those WHIP numbers are admittedly impressive, he has seen his walks creep up lately, issuing 11 free passes over his last five starts. The Nats have certainly had Musgrove's number over the years, scoring 12 earned runs in 15 previous innings against him. Also note that Musgrove hasn't lasted beyond the fifth inning in any of his last three outings and averages just a shade over five innings per start on the road this season. That last note is a concern as the Padres bullpen has been overworked this season - likely to eclipse the 400-inning mark here today. San Diego's relief corps has just 10 converted saves compared to six blown on the road this season. As I mentioned, Max Scherzer will counter for Washington. He was lit up by the Padres on July 8th but I'm willing to chalk that up as an anomaly, noting that he had given up just six earned runs in his last six starts against them. Scherzer has posted a 1.90 ERA and 0.70 WHIP in eight home starts this season. Right on par, he has recorded a 1.94 ERA and 0.69 WHIP in seven daytime outings. The Washington bullpen has been serviceable here at home, recording a collective 4.27 ERA and 1.23 WHIP with 12 saves converted and only four blown. Take Washington (10*). |
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07-17-21 | Bucks v. Suns UNDER 219 | Top | 123-119 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
NBA Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and Phoenix at 9:05 pm et on Saturday. Now that this series is tied up at two games apiece, this is obviously a critical Game 5 matchup between the Bucks and Suns in Phoenix on Saturday night. Despite the fact that we're dealing with non-conference foes, this will now be the seventh matchup between these two teams this season. As I've said many times previously, familiarity generally lends itself to tighter, lower-scoring basketball (relatively speaking) and I believe we're in for that type of affair on Saturday night in the desert. Milwaukee actually allowed Phoenix to shoot 51.3% from the field in Game 4. You would have to go all the way back to February 10th and 12th to find the last time the Bucks allowed north of 50% shooting in consecutive games this season so I expect them to bounce back at the defensive end of the floor here. Devin Booker of course went off for 42 points last time out but it's worth noting the two previous times he scored 40 points or more in these playoffs, he followed it up with 21 and 20-point efforts in his next game. The Bucks managed to score 120 and 109 points in their two home victories but that was thanks in large part to a considerable free throw disparity (they got to the free throw line 55 times in those two games), something they're not likely to experience again with the scene shifting back to Phoenix for Game 5. While the Suns offense has been prolific this season, it's been their defense that has really shone here at home, allowing just 106.6 points per game. In these playoffs they've allowed only 103.6 points per game with their games averaging a total of 212.6 points. Bucks playoff games have averaged 214.9 total points. Look for this one to stay 'under' the total on Saturday night. Take the under (10*). |
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07-17-21 | Mariners v. Angels -121 | Top | 4-9 | Win | 100 | 14 h 7 m | Show |
MLB Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles over Seattle at 9:05 pm et on Saturday. The Mariners got the better of the Angels in the opener of this series last night (we won with the 'over') but I expect Los Angeles to answer back on Saturday. All-Star Yusei Kikuchi will get the nod for the Mariners. His overall numbers are terrific this season although it is worth noting that he has posted a less than impressive 4.53 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in 10 nighttime starts with the Mariners losing six of those games. If there's one team that's had his number over the course of his career it's the Angels. In six career outings against them, including one this season, he's posted a 1-5 team record to go along with a 10.22 ERA and 2.31 WHIP. Of course, the Angels have been a significantly better offensive team both at home and against left-handed pitching this season. Behind Kikuchi is a Mariners bullpen that entered last night's action sporting a 5.12 ERA and 1.45 WHIP on the road this season with 12 saves converted and 10 blown. Alex Cobb will counter for Los Angeles. He has recorded a stellar 2.48 ERA and 0.94 WHIP here at home this season with the Angels winning five of his six starts. While the Angels bullpen has been shaky, the good news is that Cobb averages a shade over six innings per start here at home. He'll be facing a Mariners team that still owns a losing record on the road this season, averaging just 4.3 runs per game. In two starts against Seattle here in 2021, Cobb has allowed just seven hits and five earned runs in 12 1/3 innings, winning the lone outing here at home which actually came against Kikuchi as well back on June 5th. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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07-17-21 | Astros v. White Sox UNDER 8.5 | Top | 1-10 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
MLB on FOX F5 Innings Total of the Year. My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between Houston and Chicago at 7:15 pm et on Saturday. |
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07-16-21 | Mariners v. Angels OVER 8.5 | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 27 m | Show |
A.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and Los Angeles at 9:35 pm et on Friday. While playing 'overs' can be tricky coming out of the All-Star break with rested starting pitchers and bullpens, I see this as an ideal spot to call for a relatively high-scoring affair. Chris Flexen will take ball for the Mariners. While he's posted impressive numbers overall this season, that's been due in large part to the fact that he's made 10 of his 16 starts at home. Things haven't gone nearly as smooth on the road, where he owns a 6.97 ERA and 1.74 WHIP in 31 innings of work. Here, the Angels will be getting their second look at Flexen in less than a week after he shut them down in Seattle on July 10th. In their lone previous game against Flexen, the Angels had more success, scoring three earned runs and chasing him from the game after just four innings in late April. With Flexen averaging just over five innings per start on the road this season we'll likely see plenty of the Mariners bullpen in this one. Like Flexen, the Mariners relief corps has also been much better at home than on the road, where it has recorded a collective 5.12 ERA and 1.45 WHIP with 12 converted saves and 10 blown this season. Los Angeles will counter with left-hander Andrew Heaney. He checks in with a 5.40 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in eight home starts this season with the 'over' cashing at a 6-1-1 clip. The Mariners didn't do much against him in three tries last season but seemed to figure him out in his lone outing against them this year, scoring four earned runs including three home runs in only 3 1/3 innings. Note that Seattle has been a slightly better offensive club against left-handers and on the road this season. Like Flexen, Heaney doesn't tend to work deep into games, averaging just over five innings per start. While the Angels bullpen was better in the weeks leading up to the All-Star break, it still owns a less than impressive 4.67 ERA and 1.41 WHIP with 11 converted saves and eight blown here at home this season. Worse still, that ERA rises to 5.21 to go along with a 1.45 WHIP against division opponents. Take the over (10*). |
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07-14-21 | Suns +4 v. Bucks | Top | 103-109 | Loss | -109 | 59 h 20 m | Show |
NBA Finals Game of the Year. My selection is on Phoenix plus the points over Milwaukee at 9 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the Bucks in Game 3 of this series on Sunday but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the Suns as they look to grab a 3-1 stranglehold in this series on Wednesday night. Sunday's result could be chalked up as an anomaly as Phoenix had previously gone a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS when playing on two or more days' rest in these playoffs. It actually got off to a terrific start in that contest but ultimately couldn't match the Bucks desperation and fell behind by 20+ points entering the fourth quarter. The fact that Frank Kaminsky saw 13 minutes of playing time in that game tells you all you need to know about how that one played out. Here, we can expect the Suns to make the necessary defensive adjustments after Giannis Antetokounmpo went off for 41 points on 14-of-23 shooting (13-of-17 at the free throw line) in Game 3. It was just a solid all-around bounce-back game for the Bucks on Sunday with Jrue Holliday finally getting going again as well, knocking down 8-of-14 shots for 21 points. In the loss, Devin Booker shot a miserable 3-of-14 for 10 points for the Suns. We saw a similarly bad performance from him in Game 3 against the Clippers last round - a game Phoenix lost by 14 points. He responded by scoring 25 points in the next game, which the Suns won by an 84-80 score. In fact, the Suns are a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS in these playoffs after Booker is held to less than 20 points, winning those next games by an average margin of 14 points. Note that Phoenix checks in an incredible 9-1 ATS when revenging a double-digit road loss against an opponent this season, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 12 points in that situation. The Suns have shot below 50% in three straight games to open this series. The last time they shot below that mark in three consecutive games they exploded with a 130-point outburst on 56.4% shooting on the road in Game 6 against the Clippers last round. Take Phoenix (10*). |
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07-11-21 | Suns v. Bucks -177 | Top | 100-120 | Win | 100 | 22 h 18 m | Show |
NBA Moneyline Game of the Month. My selection is on Milwaukee moneyline over Phoenix at 8:05 pm et on Sunday. There's obviously plenty of 'Suns in four' talk entering Game 3 of this series on Sunday night in Milwaukee. I'm not convinced it's going to be that straight-forward for Phoenix, however. Note that the Bucks check in 8-1 straight-up when playing at home after losing two of their last three games this season, outscoring opponents by 15.6 points per game in that situation. They're also 11-3 SU when revenging a double-digit road loss over the last two seasons and an impressive 27-7 SU when playing at home after an ATS loss over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 12.2 points in that spot. Phoenix has gotten incredible offensive production from all over the court in the first two games of this series. Keep in mind, they do score and allow 1.5 points per game less and more, respectively, than their season average on the road this season. Meanwhile, the Bucks have barely managed to play above .500 basketball on the road this season but check in 22 games over .500 here at home, where they allow nearly two points per game less than their season average. Despite how the first two games in this series have gone, the Bucks are still outscoring opponents by an average margin of 4.3 points in these playoffs. They're obviously in desperate need of a victory to give themselves any sort of chance in this series and I look for them to come up with just that on Sunday night. Take Milwaukee moneyline (10*). |
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07-10-21 | Reds v. Brewers -189 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -189 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
MLB Big Chalk Game of the Month. My selection is on Milwaukee over Cincinnati at 7:15 pm et on Saturday. We're being asked to lay a pretty steep price to back a Brewers club that has been a little uneven of late but I believe it's warranted. Cincinnati will hand the ball to Vladimir Gutierrez. He'll be making his third consecutive start on just four days' rest and he'll be facing the Brewers for the third time this season. Milwaukee hasn't had a ton of success against him (it dropped both previous meetings) but there are certainly building blocks for success in place as it collected 10 hits, five walks and four earned runs over 13 innings in its two previous looks at the rookie right-hander. While Gutierrez was sharp in his first four big league starts, his last four haven't gone so swimmingly as he's allowed 16 earned runs on 25 hits over 21 1/3 innings. That's not to mention his less than impressive 17:11 strikeout-to-walk ratio over that stretch. Gutierrez averages just 5.5 innings per start this season, meaning we should see plenty of a Reds bullpen that has posted a 4.85 ERA and 1.47 WHIP on the road this season (entering last night's action). Also note that Cincinnati hasn't had an off day since June 23rd so we're talking about an overworked bullpen right now. Freddy Peralta will counter for Milwaukee. He owns a sparkling 1.79 ERA and 0.64 WHIP in eight home starts this season with the Brewers winning five of those games. Unlike Gutierrez, Peralta hasn't had to pitch on four days' rest since May 16th and won't do so here either. The Reds will be seeing Peralta for the fourth time this season but have never really figured him out, managing to score just five earned runs on 10 hits in 15 2/3 innings. The Brewers have come away victorious in five of Peralta's last six starts against Cincinnati. Behind Peralta is a Brewers bullpen that has been at its best in night games this season, posting a collective 3.29 ERA and 1.22 WHIP (entering last night's action). Here at home they've converted 15 saves while blowing only six. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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07-10-21 | Royals v. Indians OVER 9 | Top | 6-14 | Win | 100 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
MLB First Five Innings Total of the Month. My selection is on the first five innings 'over' between Kansas City and Cleveland at 6:10 pm et on Saturday. |
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07-09-21 | Lynx v. Aces -6.5 | Top | 77-67 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 56 m | Show |
WNBA Revenge Game of the Year. My selection is on Las Vegas minus the points over Minnesota at 10:30 pm et on Friday. The Aces have plenty of reason to get up for Friday night's showdown with the Lynx in Las Vegas as they come off a tough overtime loss against Phoenix, at home no less, and look to avenge a narrow one-point loss suffered in Minnesota on June 25th. We won with the Aces this past Sunday as they cruised to a 23-point rout of Atlanta. They couldn't follow that performance up with another stellar effort, however, as they shot just 43.9% from the field in an overtime loss to the Mercury on Wednesday night. Keep in mind, the Aces are averaging an incredible 96.7 points per game on 49.9% shooting here at home this season. They've been a much more potent offensive team at home compared to on the road while also holding the opposition to just 39.5% shooting. That's why it's somewhat perplexing that we're 'only' being asked to lay 6.5 points (at the time of writing) in this spot given the Aces closed as six-point favorites on the road against Minnesota in that most recent meeting on June 25th. Perhaps it has something to do with the fact that the Lynx have gone on a tear, entering this game riding a five-game winning streak. Former Aces sharp-shooter Kayla McBride has been absolutely on fire over the last few games but what better team to slow her down than her former one. The Lynx aren't exactly brimming with scoring depth, relying heavily on veteran Sylvia Fowles and McBride. Bridget Carleton did chip in with 10 points off the bench in Wednesday's win over Dallas but she had previously topped out at just five points in her last six games. This will be Las Vegas' final home game before the extended Olympic break. Meanwhile, Minnesota will wrap up pre-Olympic play with a stop in Los Angeles on Sunday. Take Las Vegas (10*). |
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07-09-21 | Royals v. Indians -134 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
American League Blowout Game of the Year. My selection is on Cleveland over Kansas City at 7:10 pm et on Friday. We won with the Indians last night as they snapped their nine-game losing streak in thrilling fashion in a 7-4 walk-off victory to open this series against the Royals. It looked pretty bleak for the first seven innings but a couple of late three-run home runs ended up being the difference. I believe the Indians are set up incredibly well to keep building positive momentum on Friday night, even if the starting pitching matchup doesn't look all that favorable on paper. This one has the chance to really get away from the Royals as the game progresses. Brad Keller will take the ball for the Royals. We've been picking on Keller lately, and for good reason. He's once again in an awful spot here, pitching on four days' rest for a ninth consecutive turn in the rotation. Give him credit for hanging in there for 6 1/3 innings against the Twins last time out but that was at home. He has posted a 5.68 ERA and 1.98 WHIP in nine road starts this season and hasn't been any better at night, recording a 6.92 ERA and 1.79 WHIP. Considering Keller averages less than five innings per start we're likely to see plenty of a Royals bullpen that hasn't had an off day since June 21st and entered last night's action sporting a collective 4.75 ERA and 1.46 WHIP on the road this season. Triston McKenzie will make a spot start for the Indians on Friday. The less said about him the better, quite honestly. His numbers this season are awful - there's a reason he was banished from the rotation at the start of June. With that being said, he has inexplicably had the Royals number. In three career starts against them he has allowed just three earned runs on eight hits while striking out 18 and walking five in 16 innings of work. Unlike Keller, McKenzie has a fresh arm having not started since the second week of June. I like the contrarian angle of backing him here, knowing he'll likely be on a short leash. Behind McKenzie is a solid Indians bullpen that entered last night's action with a collective 2.83 ERA and 1.22 WHIP with nine converted saves and only one blown here at home this season. While they did blow a save opportunity last night, they entered that contest having converted 14 of 15 save chances in division games this season. Unlike the Royals, who have been playing every day for weeks, the Indians have been afforded three off days in the last two weeks (with a couple of seven-inning double-headers thrown in the mix). Take Cleveland (10*). |
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07-08-21 | Bucks v. Suns UNDER 220 | Top | 108-118 | Loss | -113 | 15 h 58 m | Show |
NBA Finals Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and Phoenix at 9:05 pm et on Thursday. We won with the Suns in Game 1 of this series on Tuesday but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' in Game 2 on Thursday. We saw some nerves early on in Game 1 but once the two teams settled down the offenses started flowing and we didn't see a great deal of tough defensive play. I expect a different story to unfold in Game 2. Generally, I like to play Bucks 'overs' when they come off a win, and 'unders' when they follow a loss. The trends bear it out as Milwaukee has posted an 11-20 o/u record when coming off a loss this season. Better still, the 'under' has gone 12-3 when the Bucks come off three consecutive 'over' results this season, as is the case here. Keep in mind, the 'under' is still 10-7-1 in all Bucks playoff games with an average total of just 214.1 points scored. The 'under' owns a slight 9-8 edge in Suns playoff games with those contests totaling an average of only 211.5 points. While Phoenix won Game 1 there are still adjustments for it to make here after Milwaukee shot 44% from beyond the arc, knocking down 16 three-pointers in the series-opener. Meanwhile, we should see some regression from the Suns in a couple of key areas here after Chris Paul poured in 32 points on 12-of-19 shooting and DeAndre Ayton put up 22 points on 8-of-10 shooting on Tuesday night. Note that it was only the fourth time in these playoffs that CP3 scored more than 22 points while Ayton averages just 14.4 points per game on 62.6% shooting this season. The Bucks obviously need to make some adjustments here and I'm confident they will noting that they allow just 104.5 points per game on 44.3% shooting in these playoffs. Take the under (10*). |
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07-08-21 | Royals v. Indians -128 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
A.L. Central Game of the Month. My selection is on Cleveland over Kansas City at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. |
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07-08-21 | Dodgers -151 v. Marlins | Top | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 48 m | Show |
MLB First Five Innings Daytime Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles first five innings over Miami at 12:10 pm et on Thursday. The Dodgers have inexplicably dropped the first three games in this series but I look for them to get off to a positive start at the very least in Thursday's afternoon affair. Julio Urias will take the ball for Los Angeles. He'll be making his second straight start on a full five days' rest and checks in sporting a 3.40 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in nine road starts this season with the Dodgers winning seven of those games. Better still, Urias has recorded a 3.12 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in seven daytime outings this season. While he got lit up in his lone previous start against the Marlins, that came over four years ago and has little bearing on today's matchup. By playing the first five innings only we'll avoid a Dodgers bullpen that has posted a collective 4.48 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in day games this season. Sandy Alcantara will counter for Miami. His worst start of the season came against the Dodgers back on May 14th as he was chased after allowing eight earned runs in just 1 1/3 innings. He was pitching on four days' rest on that night, and he'll be doing the same here today. Note that he has labored through his last two outings, allowing 11 hits and six runs, four of them earned, while posting a 7:7 strikeout-to-walk ratio in just 11 1/3 innings of work. Here, we'll look to avoid a Marlins bullpen that has been quietly efficient at home this season, recording a collective 2.81 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. Take Los Angeles first five innings (10*). |
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07-07-21 | Cardinals v. Giants -175 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 16 h 35 m | Show |
MLB Blowout Game of the Year. My selection is on San Francisco over St. Louis at 9:45 pm et on Wednesday. The Cardinals have taken the first two games of this series but I look for the Giants to answer back and avoid the sweep on Wednesday night. Johan Oviedo gets the call for the Cardinals. He's been absolutely dreadful on the road this season, recording a 6.20 ERA and 2.02 WHIP in five starts with the Cards winning only two of those games. Here, he'll be making his third consecutive start on just four days' rest. Over his last three outings he has allowed 19 hits and 10 earned runs to go along with an ugly 8:8 strikeout-to-walk ratio in just 13 2/3 innings of work. Behind Oviedo is a Cards bullpen that entered last night's action sporting a 4.52 ERA and 1.46 WHIP on the road this season with just eight saves converted compared to six blown. Left-hander Alex Wood will counter for San Francisco. It's worth noting that the Cards have been a weaker team against southpaw pitchers this season, hitting a collective .222 and averaging just 3.7 runs per game. They have had some success against Wood in the past, but have never faced him away from home and haven't had a look at him in nearly two years. Wood checks in with a 4.09 ERA and 1.16 WHIP at home this season, with the Giants winning five of his eight starts. The Giants bullpen has been outstanding at home this season, recording a collective 3.05 ERA and 1.04 WHIP with 15 saves converted and only three blown. Take San Francisco (10*). |
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07-07-21 | Canadiens v. Lightning -224 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
My selection is on Tampa Bay -1.0 goal over Montreal at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. |
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07-07-21 | Wings v. Lynx UNDER 169.5 | Top | 79-85 | Win | 100 | 7 h 4 m | Show |
WNBA Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Minnesota at 8 pm et on Wednesday. Both of these teams are coming off consecutive peak offensive performances but I'll go the contrarian route and back the 'under' in this one as they match up in Minnesota on Wednesday night. Dallas has shot 50% or better in consecutive games for the first time this season. Keep in mind, prior to those two performances the Wings had shot 42.3% or worse in consecutive contests. They check in shooting just 43.4% on the road this season. The Wings have seen the 'over' cash in three straight games - their longest 'over' streak of the season. In fact, only once this season have they seen the 'over' cash in three out of four games and on that occasion, their next contest totaled just 135 points. Minnesota has shot better than 50% from the field in three of its last four games but it's interesting to note that all three of those performances came on the road. Here at home the Lynx are shooting just north of 45% on the season. The 'over' has cashed in four of the Lynx last five games overall. That situation has come up twice previously this season and on both of those occasions their next game totaled exactly 158 points with the 'under' going 2-0. This is the highest total we've seen in three meetings between these two teams this season. Look for it to prove to be too high. Take the under (10*). |
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07-06-21 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 56 m | Show |
N.L. West Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Colorado and Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the first five innings 'under' in the D'Backs most recent game - a 5-2 loss to the Giants on Sunday. Here, I'll switch gears and back the 'over' as they open a series at home against the Rockies. Jon Gray will make his third start for the Rockies since returning from a stint on the I.L. He's held up well in his last two outings but I expect him to struggle here. Note that Gray has posted a 5.70 ERA and 1.69 WHIP in five road starts this season with the 'over' cashing in four of those games. The D'Backs will be getting their fourth look at Gray already this season and sixth going back to last August. They've had some success against him, particularly here at home, where they most recent chased him after scoring five runs, four of them earned, over six innings in a 7-2 victory on April 30th. With Gray averaging less than five innings per start on the road this season we'll likely see plenty of the Rockies awful bullpen which owns a 5.50 ERA and 1.58 WHIP on the road this season. Merrill Kelly will counter for Arizona. He has been pitching reasonably well of late but finds himself in a bit of a tough spot here, pitching on four days' rest for a fifth straight turn in the rotation. Kelly's overall numbers are fine this season but there's no question, the Rockies have had his number, already facing him twice this year and scoring eight earned runs on 16 hits in just 11 2/3 innings. Kelly's last four starts against Colorado have resulted in 9, 14, 10 and 12 total runs. Behind Kelly is a D'Backs bullpen that has recorded a collective 5.06 ERA and 1.52 WHIP with just four saves converted compared to five blown here at home this season. Worse still, against division opponents, the Arizona 'pen has posted a 6.35 ERA and 1.70 WHIP with three saves converted and eight blown. Take the over (10*). |
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07-06-21 | Phillies v. Cubs +1.5 | Top | 15-10 | Loss | -126 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
N.L. Run-Line Game of the Month. My selection is on Chicago +1.5 runs over Philadelphia at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Cubs are obviously reeling right now, having not won a game since June 24th. After getting blown out 13-3 in the opener of this series last night, I look for them to bounce back and at the very least take this one down to the wire on Tuesday. Aaron Nola will take the ball for the Phillies. Like the rest of his team, he has struggled on the road this season, posting a 5.32 ERA and 1.33 WHIP to go along with a 3-6 team record in nine starts. Note that he has lasted more than 5 1/3 innings just once in his last six trips to the hill. That's concerning as the Phillies bullpen has struggled on the road this season, posting a collective 3.96 ERA and 1.33 WHIP with 10 converted saves to go along with 10 blown. Despite last night's victory, the Phils are still 10 games under .500 on the road this season. Jake Arrieta will counter for Chicago. While it's not saying much, he has been better at home this season than on the road, posting a 4.08 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. He'll likely be on a short leash here after struggling in his last several starts but that's not a bad thing as the Cubs bullpen has recorded a terrific 2.78 ERA and 1.16 WHIP with 13 saves converted and only three blown at home this season. Note that Arrieta will be pitching on five days' rest here. The last four times he's done so he has allowed just seven earned runs in 21 innings of work. Take Chicago +1.5 runs (10*). |
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07-05-21 | Lightning v. Canadiens UNDER 5 | Top | 2-3 | Push | 0 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
NHL Stanley Cup Final Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Tampa Bay and Montreal at 8:05 pm et on Monday. We've alternated playing the 'over' and 'under' in the first three games in this series, going a perfect 3-0 along the way. I'll stick with that approach here in Game 4 as I anticipate a different type of affair than we saw in Saturday's wide-open 6-3 Lightning victory. Saturday's game essentially turned on two Tampa Bay goals in the opening four minutes. Were it not for the Lightning building a considerable lead it's unlikely they would have given up three goals, noting that they had allowed a grand total of just two goals through the first two games of the series. The Lightning check in allowing just 2.0 goals per game in the playoffs while the Canadiens have allowed 2.5. Note that the 'under' has gone 9-2 with the Lightning playing on the road after a game where nine or more goals were scored over the last two seasons with that situation producing an average of just 4.4 total goals. We've also seen the 'under' cash at an 8-1 clip with the Lightning looking to close out a series on the road over the last two seasons with an average total of just 4.0 goals in that spot. Meanwhile, the 'under' has gone 9-2 with the Canadiens seeking revenge for a loss where their opponent scored five or more goals this season. That situation has produced an average total of 5.0 goals. The Lightning have certainly looked unstoppable offensively in this series but it's not as if that's been the case from start to finish in these playoffs. They've actually scored three goals or less in 10 of their last 15 games with the 'under' going 8-5-2 over that stretch (10-5-2 over their last 17 games). I was waiting this one out hoping the total might finally move off of 5.0 to 5.5 but it doesn't look like that's going to happen, rightfully so (although that's certainly an option as an alternate total at most books, albeit at a steeper price). Take the under (10*). |
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07-05-21 | Reds v. Royals OVER 9.5 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -118 | 22 h 15 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Cincinnati and Kansas City at 8:10 pm et on Monday. We missed with the 'over' in the Royals 6-2 loss to the Twins yesterday as the scoring simply started too late. I expect a different story to unfold on Monday night as the Royals open an Interleague series against the Reds. Vladimir Gutierrez will get the call for Cincinnati. He owns a 4.77 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in five nighttime starts this season. Here, he'll be making his second straight start on four days' rest. Considering he has posted an ugly ERA north of eight to go along with an 1.89 WHIP over his last three outings there's reason for concern as he prepares to face the Royals here. Behind Gutierrez is a Reds bullpen that entered yesterday's action sporting a collective 4.77 ERA and 1.44 WHIP on the road this season. Also note that the Reds haven't had an off day since June 23rd. Mike Minor will counter for Kansas City. He'll inexplicably be making his ninth consecutive start on four days' rest. Note that Minor has recorded a 5.57 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in nine home starts this season. Over his last three trips to the hill he has posted an 8.64 ERA and 1.92 WHIP. The Royals bullpen has posted a collective 4.39 ERA and 1.39 WHIP at night this season, converting 10 saves to go along with seven blown. Take the over (10*). |
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07-04-21 | Cardinals v. Rockies OVER 11 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 17 m | Show |
National League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between St. Louis and Colorado at 3:10 pm et on Sunday. We saw a low-scoring affair between these two teams last night as the Rockies prevailed by a 3-2 score. Here, I look for a different story to unfold. Carlos Martinez will take the ball for the Cardinals. He has of course struggled at the best of times this season and here will be making his third straight start on just four days' rest. Martinez owns a 7.08 ERA and 1.38 WHIP on the road this season. The Rockies have certainly had his number over the years, most recently scoring seven earned runs in 9 2/3 innings against him in two starts going back to the 2018 season. With Martinez averaging just 5.1 innings per start on the road this season we should see plenty of the Cardinals bullpen here. While St. Louis' relief corps hasn't been awful, it has posted a less than impressive 4.33 ERA and 1.44 WHIP with eight saves converted and five blown on the road this season. My concern is that St. Louis hasn't had an off day since June 21st so we're talking about an overworked 'pen. German Marquez will start on four days' rest for the Rockies after tossing a complete game shutout against the Pirates last time out. He's actually pitched well overall this season but hasn't been at his best in daytime starts, posting a 5.22 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in eight outings. In those eight starts he has lasted just 5.2 innings on average. That opens the door for an awful Rockies bullpen that entered last night's action sporting a collective 5.43 ERA and 1.49 WHIP with just nine saves converted compared to 10 blown here at home this season. Take the over (10*). |
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07-03-21 | Bucks v. Hawks -2.5 | Top | 118-107 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 0 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Atlanta minus the points over Milwaukee at 8:35 pm et on Saturday. We won with the Bucks in Game 5 of this series two nights ago but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the Hawks as the series shifts back to Atlanta on Saturday night. The Bucks are of course expected to be without Giannis Antetokounmpo once again on Saturday night. While there's a better chance that Trae Young is able to play for the Hawks, that's certainly no guarantee. Regardless whether he plays or not, I expect to see the Hawks bounce back with one of their best efforts of the series off of Thursday's lopsided loss. Note that the Bucks are just 4-13 ATS after winning three of their last four games ATS this season, outscored by an average margin of 4.0 points in that situation. Meanwhile, the Hawks have gone 12-3 ATS as a home favorite of six points or less this season, as is the case here, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 8.5 points in that situation. After allowing Milwaukee to shoot better than 50% from the field in Game 5 we can expect Atlanta to make the necessary defensive adjustments here, noting that it has been a considerably better defensive team at home compared to on the road this season, allowing 2.5 points per game less than its season-average while holding the opposition to under 45% shooting. Take Atlanta (10*). |
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07-03-21 | Dodgers v. Nationals UNDER 9 | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
MLB on FOX Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Washington at 7:15 pm et on Saturday. We saw a high-scoring affair between these two teams last night as the Dodgers prevailed by a 10-5 score. I'm expecting a different story to unfold on Saturday, however. Clayton Kershaw gets the nod for Los Angeles. He's off to a terrific start this season having posted a 3.86 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in eight road starts. Better still, he owns a 2.88 ERA and 0.85 WHIP in 11 nighttime outings. The Nationals have never really been able to figure the veteran left-hander out. He already tossed six shutout innings against them earlier this season. Behind Kershaw is a Dodgers bullpen that has recorded a collective 3.13 ERA and 1.19 WHIP at night this season. Paolo Espino will counter for Washington. He's been sharp in his last two spot starts and will be facing the Dodgers for the first time in his career on Saturday. With Espino averaging less than five innings per start we're likely to see plenty from the Nats' bullpen and that's not a bad thing. They've posted a collective 3.06 ERA and 1.09 WHIP with 12 saves converted and only three blown at home this season. Take the under (10*). |
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07-03-21 | Denmark v. Czech Republic +0.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -125 | 5 h 43 m | Show |
Euro Quarter-Final Game of the Year. My selection is on Czech Republic +0.5 goals over Denmark at 12 noon et on Saturday. It's time for teams to starting taking this Czech Republic side seriously after it dispatched the Netherlands in a convincing 2-0 victory last Sunday. The Czechs have done nothing but impress in this tournament and I don't expect to see them wilt under the pressure against the favored Danes on Saturday. Note that Denmark has rode a wave of positive momentum in this tournament ever since a stunning loss to Finland that was marred by Christian Eriksen's cardiac-arrest on the field in mid-match. I give the Danish side all the credit for their incredible run but now they've been sitting idle since breezing past Wales 4-0 last Saturday and I simply feel they're going to have their hands full with a cagey Czech squad. Patrik Schick has arguably been the breakout star of this tournament and he'll be called on once again to lead the Czechs to victory here. Note that they're expected to have key defender Jan Boril back from suspension for this match as well and they'll need all hands on deck given Denmark's ability to find the back of the net, scoring eight times in its last two contests. There's a certain confidence and swagger that the Czech's have displayed in this tournament and I believe it carries them to at least a level result after 90 minutes against Denmark on Saturday. Take Czech Republic +0.5 goals (10*). |
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07-02-21 | Twins v. Royals OVER 10 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
A.L. Central Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Kansas City at 8:10 pm et on Friday. The Twins have seen the 'over' cash in five straight and seven of their last eight games overall and I expect that streak to continue on Friday night. J.A. Happ will take the ball for Minnesota. He'll be starting on just four days' rest and has struggled at the best of times on the road this season, posting a 7.98 ERA and 1.71 WHIP in six road starts with the 'over' cashing in five of those games. The Royals will be getting their third look at the left-hander this season having already scored seven earned runs in just 10 innings against him. Behind Happ is a Twins bullpen that owns a 5.64 ERA and 1.44 WHIP with just seven saves converted and five blown in night games this season. Brady Singer will counter for Kansas City. He'll be making his third straight start on four days' rest and owns a 5.02 ERA and 1.59 WHIP in eight nighttime starts this season. The Twins have only scored three earned runs in 7 2/3 innings against him this season but in five career starts against Minnesota, Singer owns a 4.83 ERA and 1.66 WHIP. With Singer averaging less than five innings per start we're likely to see plenty of a Royals bullpen that hasn't had a day off since June 21st and has struggled to the tune of a 4.49 ERA and 1.41 WHIP with nine saves converted and seven blown at night this season. Take the over (10*). |
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07-02-21 | Sky v. Wings UNDER 165.5 | Top | 91-100 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
WNBA Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Dallas at 8 pm et on Friday. We won with the 'over' in this same matchup two nights ago but I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the 'under' as we deal with a higher opening total in Friday's rematch. Chicago shot better than 47% from the field in Wednesday's victory. I'm confident we'll see Dallas make the necessary defensive adjustments here, noting that it had held four straight opponents to 43.7% shooting or worse prior to that contest. Offensively, we've seen Dallas score more than 80 points in three straight games but I believe that streak could be in jeopardy here. The Wings have actually shot just 41.3% as a team at home this season. They're not getting the same offensive production from the secondary scorers such as Marina Mabrey and Satou Sabally right now. As I noted in Wednesday's analysis, the Sky are one of the league's best defensive teams, limiting opponents to 74.1 points per game on 41% shooting on the road this season. They were in a tough spot on Wednesday but still kept the Wings offense in check for all intents and purposes. Expect an even better effort here. Take the under (10*). |
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07-01-21 | Rangers v. A's -174 | Top | 8-3 | Loss | -174 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
MLB A.L. West Game of the Month. My selection is on Oakland over Texas at 3:35 pm et on Thursday. We won with the A's last night and I won't hesitate to come right back with them again in Thursday's series finale against the Rangers. Dane Dunning gets the nod for Texas. He's been a completely different pitcher on the road compared to at home this season, posting a 7.45 ERA and 1.86 WHIP with the Rangers losing all seven of his starts to date. He hasn't been much better in day games, recording a 5.14 ERA and 1.79 WHIP in five outings. With Dunning averaging less than five innings per start this season we're likely to see plenty of the Rangers bullpen which has struggled on the road, entering last night's action sporting a 5.66 ERA and 1.55 WHIP with just six saves converted and four blown. Sean Manaea will counter for Oakland. He owns a 2.82 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in nine home starts this season with the A's winning eight of those. He brings excellent form into this start having recorded a 2.12 ERA and 1.24 WHIP over his last three outings. The Rangers have never really been able to figure Manaea out as he has allowed two earned runs or less in seven of his last eight starts against them going back to August of 2017. While the A's bullpen's overall numbers haven't been all that great this season they have been slightly better in day games and do check in having converted 12 saves while blowing only two here at home (entering last night's action). Take Oakland (10*). |
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06-30-21 | Suns -1 v. Clippers | Top | 130-103 | Win | 100 | 24 h 37 m | Show |
NBA Conference Finals Elimination Game of the Year. My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Los Angeles at 9 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the Suns in Game 4 of this series last Saturday before switching gears to cash the first half 'over' in Game 5 on Monday. Here, I won't hesitate to go back to the well with Phoenix as it looks to wrap up this series and advance to its first NBA Finals since 1993. Paul George went into 'superstar mode' for the Clippers in Game 5, shooting a blistering 15-for-20 from the field and pouring in 41 points as Los Angeles staved off elimination with an 'upset' win in Phoenix. If you follow my plays regularly you know that I like to fade teams after they have a player 'go off' in their previous contest. Lost in George's monster performance was the fact that Devin Booker also got on track with a 31-point effort - the first time he eclipsed the 30-point mark since scoring 41 in Game 1 against the Clips. Note that the Suns check in an incredible 11-2 ATS when revenging a double-digit loss against an opponent this season, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 13.4 points. They've gone 23-9 ATS when coming off an ATS loss this season, outscoring opponents by 7.8 points on average. Phoenix has shot 45.2% or worse in three consecutive games - its longest such streak this season. It did shoot 45.7% or worse in three straight games back in round one against the Lakers. In their next game, the Suns shot better than 50% from the field and won by a 113-100 score right here at Staples Center. A similar scoreline would be well within the realm of possibility on Wednesday. Take Phoenix (10*). |
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06-29-21 | Giants +1.5 v. Dodgers | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -164 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
MLB N.L. First Five Innings Game of the Month. My selection is on San Francisco +0.5 runs first five innings over Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Dodgers got past the Giants by a 3-2 score last night. I like San Francisco to get off to a positive start on Tuesday, however, as I fully expect it to at the very least stay level with the Dodgers through the first five innings. Kevin Gausman remains one of the most underrated and underappreciated starters in baseball this season. He checks in sporting an incredible 1.02 ERA and 0.86 WHIP in 10 road starts. Here, he'll be pitching on five days' rest for the third consecutive start. While he will be facing the Dodgers for the second time this season, it's worth noting that he has allowed a grand total of just four earned runs in 26 innings of work when facing a team for a second (or third) time this season. By playing the first five innings only we'll avoid a Giants bullpen that while solid, has managed to blow 11 saves on the road this season. Walker Buehler will counter for Los Angeles. There's really not a lot negative that can be said of the Dodgers ace (that title is of course debatable given how well Clayton Kershaw has pitched). However, he did labor through his most recent start, allowing three earned runs on five hits, including two home runs, while also issuing a pair of walks over six innings in his most recent start against the Cubs - a 4-0 Dodgers loss. Here, he'll be pitching on just four days' rest. The Giants will be facing Buehler for the third time this season. Take San Francisco +0.5 runs first five innings (10*). |
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06-29-21 | Bucks v. Hawks +7 | Top | 88-110 | Win | 100 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Finals Game of the Year. My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over Milwaukee at 8:35 pm et on Tuesday. We'll fade the Bucks on Tuesday coming off Khris Middleton's 38-point explosion in Game 3 (we won with the 'under' in that game). The Hawks are of course dealing with an injury to Trae Young, who may or may not be able to play due to a bruised foot suffered on Sunday. Whether he can go or not, I still like Atlanta in this spot as we're being given a generous helping of points with the home side, noting that the Hawks have already defeated the Bucks by seven as a six-point home underdog without Young in the lineup back in late April. Milwaukee has shot better than 51% in consecutive games - the first time it has accomplished that feat since May 13th and 15th. On that occasion, they followed up those two games with a 118-112 loss in Chicago as a 7.5-point favorite, shooting just 42.2% from the field in that loss. Note that the Bucks check in a miserable 4-12 ATS after winning three of their last four games ATS this season, outscored by an average margin of 3.0 points in that situation. They're also 8-22 ATS after winning six or seven of their last eight games overall this season, as is the case here, only managing to outscore opponents by an average margin of 3.9 points in that spot. The Hawks are 15-5 ATS playing at home off a double-digit home loss over the last three seasons and 28-15 ATS when at home off an ATS loss over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 2.3 points on average in the latter situation. Finally, in 10 games played at home after two or more consecutive ATS losses this season, the Hawks have managed to outscore opponents by an average margin of 6.3 points. Take Atlanta (10*). |
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06-29-21 | Royals v. Red Sox OVER 10.5 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
American League First Five Innings Total of the Year. My selection is on the first five innings 'over' between Kansas City and Boston at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a relatively high-scoring affair to open this series in the Boston heat last night and I expect for another high-scoring start at least to Tuesday's contest. Brad Keller will take the ball for Kansas City. He'll inexplicably be making his seventh straight start on just four days' rest. The signs of wear are showing as he's been tagged for a whopping 20 earned runs over his last four starts, spanning just 20 1/3 innings of work. Note that he checks in sporting an ugly 6.91 ERA and 1.87 WHIP in 15 nighttime starts this season. Things don't figure to improve against a Red Sox lineup that just saw him on June 18th, scoring five earned runs over five innings against him. Nick Pivetta will counter for Boston. He'll also be pitching on four days' rest after a lights out 6 2/3 innings performance against the Rays last time out. Keep in mind, he owns a 4.57 ERA and 1.38 WHIP in eight home starts this season. The Royals will be getting their second look at Pivetta in as many weeks as well, having scored three earned runs on six hits and three walks over five innings against him back on June 18th. By playing the first five innings only we should avoid factoring in two bullpens that have held up reasonably well. Much like we saw last night, I expect the starters to get roughed up early in this one. Take the first five innings over (10*). |
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06-29-21 | Ukraine v. Sweden | Top | 1-1 | Push | 0 | 17 h 42 m | Show |
Euro Knockout Stage Game of the Year. My selection is on Sweden pk (draw no bet) over Ukraine at 3 pm et on Tuesday. We won with Sweden in its most recent match, a 3-2 victory in a wild contest against Poland. Credit the Swedes hanging in there despite Robert Lewandowski's heroics and thanks to the victory they draw a favorable matchup against Ukraine here. Ukraine is certainly fortunate to be here after closing out the group stage with a 1-0 defeat against Austria. While it showed plenty of fight in a narrow 3-2 loss to the Netherlands in its opener and ultimately faced little resistance in a win over North Macedonia, the tournament has generally been a mixed bag for Andriy Shevchenko's squad. That's a stark contrast to the Swedes, who have been rock solid, showing excellent form defensively and just enough attacking prowess to make them a dangerous team moving forward in this tournament. Sweden is now undefeated in its last eight matches and I don't believe Ukraine will be the side to end that run. While I have a lot of respect for Ukraine, particularly for the duo of Zinchenko and Yarmolenko, I look for Sweden to ultimately prevail in what will likely be a low-scoring affair. Take Sweden (10*). |
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06-29-21 | Germany v. England UNDER 2.5 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
Euro Knockout Stage Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between England and Germany at 12 noon et on Tuesday. After yesterday's two thrilling, high-scoring games, most will be quick to go 'over' this low total in Wednesday's first of two knockout stage matchups. I'll go the other way, however, as I envision England having a tough time breaking down Germany, and vice versa. Germany is certainly not without its flaws defensively. It has allowed five goals in three matches in this tournament to date, conceding in all three contests. With that being said, England has shown precious few flashes of brilliance on the attack, generally looking hamstrung in all three tournament matches to date. At its own end of the pitch, the Three Lions have looked well-organized, however, and while Germany offers a stiff challenge, I believe England will be up for it in front of the home faithful at Wembley Stadium on Tuesday. While we've become somewhat accustomed to high-octane, thrill-a-minute matches involving Joachim Low's German side in this tournament, I expect a different story to unfold here as things generally tend to tighten up in the knockout stage (you wouldn't know it by yesterday's results, of course). Take the under (10*). |
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06-28-21 | Cubs v. Brewers UNDER 7 | Top | 4-14 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
MLB Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Monday. I'm expecting a low-scoring affair as the Cubs and Brewers renew their N.L. Central rivalry on Monday night in Milwaukee. Kyle Hendricks will take the ball for the Cubs. He has turned his season around after a rocky start, working at least six innings in eight straight outings and posting a sparkling 1.00 ERA and 0.67 WHIP over his last three starts. He's been at his best against divisional opponents this season, recording a 3.40 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. While the Brewers have had plenty of looks at Hendricks in recent years, they've never really been able to figure him out. He has allowed just four earned runs in his last five outings against Milwaukee, covering a span of 33 2/3 innings. Behind Hendricks is one of the best bullpens in baseball as the Cubs relief corps has posted a collective 2.88 ERA and 1.23 WHIP on the road this season, blowing only two saves while converting 10. Freddy Peralta will counter for Milwaukee. He's been lights out in seven home starts this season, posting a 1.62 ERA and 0.59 WHIP. In seven nighttime starts he owns a 1.74 ERA and 0.70 WHIP with the 'under' cashing at a 4-2-1 clip. The Cubs have already seen Peralta three times this season but haven't had much success, scoring just three earned runs in 15 innings. The 'under' is 3-1 in his four previous career starts against Chicago. Like the Cubs, the Brewers have a solid bullpen that has been at its best in night games this season, recording a collective 3.47 ERA and 1.21 WHIP with a 10:4 converted save rate. Take the under (10*). |
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06-28-21 | Canadiens v. Lightning -195 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 23 h 55 m | Show |
NHL Game of the Month. My selection is on Tampa Bay over Montreal at 8:05 pm et on Monday. We have a pretty good read on the Lightning right now having just gone 6-0-2 (including free) over the course of their seven-game series against the Islanders. Here, I look for them to get off to a positive start as they begin their quest for a second straight Stanley Cup title against the upstart Canadiens. This is by no means a favorable matchup for the Habs. Tampa Bay has absolutely had Montreal's number over the last few seasons, taking seven of the last eight meetings in this series. This will of course be the first matchup between these two teams this season but I expect the Bolts dominance to continue. Note that the Lightning are an incredible 20-3 when coming off a game where they scored one goal or less over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.1 goals. The Canadiens on the other hand are 11-21 after winning four of their last five contests over the last three seasons, outscored by 0.7 goals on average in that situation. For whatever reason, we saw the Golden Knights absolutely wilt over the course of their series with the Habs. It almost seems as if a lopsided 4-1 win in Game 1 may have been their downfall as they seemed to start reading their own press and believing the series was going to be a cakewalk. I don't envision the Bolts experiencing a similar fate here. Home ice doesn't always mean a great deal in the NHL Playoffs, but it has most definitely meant something to the Bolts this season as they've gone 27-10 here in Tampa, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.3 goals. Here in the playoffs they check in giving up just 2.1 goals per game. The Habs have proven to be the very definition of a 'tough out' and while I certainly don't expect them to get walked all over in this series, I do think they're going to have a very difficult time gaining the upper hand at any point against an ultra-talented and obviously experienced Lightning that has its sights set on another Stanley Cup championship. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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06-26-21 | Suns -1 v. Clippers | Top | 84-80 | Win | 100 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Finals Game of the Year. My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Los Angeles at 9:05 pm et on Saturday. The Suns couldn't have played much worse in Game 3 of this series but perhaps that was to be expected after they grabbed a 2-0 series lead thanks to a thrilling last-second win in Game 2 (we won with the Clippers in Game 3). Here, I look for Phoenix to bounce back in all areas of the game as it looks to grab a 3-1 stranglehold on the series before heading back home. Much has been made of Devin Booker's awful 5-of-21 shooting night and whether it had anything to do with him wearing a protective mask after breaking his nose in Game 2. Regardless whether the mask played a role, I expect him to respond with a big performance on Saturday night. The best generally bounce back and Booker is certainly in that elite category a this stage of his career. For the Suns, Game 3 was also their first game of the series with Chris Paul back in the lineup. I did figure it would take some time for him to get re-acclimated with the offense and that certainly appeared to be the case. Look for a more cohesive effort from the Suns offense here on Saturday. Note that Phoenix has gone 8-1 ATS when revenging a double-digit road loss against an opponent this season, outscoring the opposition by 12.9 points on average in that situation. The Suns have been an excellent bounce-back team all season, going 16-7 ATS and outscoring opponents by an average margin of 7.2 points when coming off a loss of any kind. While the Suns did hold Paul George relatively in check in Game 3 (he shot 9-of-26 from the field for 27 points), they'll need to play with a lot more intensity here after George and Ivica Zubac combined to haul in 31 rebounds. Again, it was no real surprise that we saw Phoenix take a breath in Game 3 after they had not only won the first two games in this series, but nine straight overall. The only other time they lost a game by double-digits in these playoffs, they responded with a 100-92 victory right here at Staples Center in Game 4 against the Lakers in round one. Take Phoenix (10*). |
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06-25-21 | Pirates v. Cardinals -160 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -160 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
MLB Game of the Month. My selection is on St. Louis over Pittsburgh at 8:15 pm et on Friday. This is an excellent bounce-back spot for the Cardinals coming off last night's lopsided loss in the series-opener. William Crowe will take the ball for the Pirates. He's been awful on the road this season, posting a 6.37 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in five starts with the Buccos losing three of those games. Worse still, he owns a 10.57 ERA and 2.22 WHIP in four nighttime starts, with Pittsburgh going 1-3 in those contests. The only two times during his young career where an opponent has seen him twice, he's allowed a whopping nine earned runs in just 3 2/3 innings in the second start. The Cardinals get that opportunity here after scoring three earned runs in five innings in a 3-0 victory against Crowe and the Pirates back on May 2nd. Behind Crowe is a Pirates bullpen that has struggled on the road this season, posting a collective 5.07 ERA and 1.27 WHIP (entering last night's action). They haven't been any better at night either, recording a 4.83 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. While the Pirates relief corps has done a nice job of converting save opportunities I don't expect them to be in position to do so tonight. Kwang-Hyun Kim will counter for the Cardinals. He doesn't tend to work deep into games but does own a 2.66 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in five home starts this season with the Cards winning four of those games. At night he has recorded a 3.03 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in six outings. This will be Kim's first start against Pittsburgh this season after allowing four earned runs in 11 1/3 innings against the Pirates last year. Note that the Pirates are just 4-12 against left-handed starters this season, averaging only 3.1 runs per game. The Cardinals bullpen has posted a collective 4.15 ERA and 1.36 WHIP at home this season (entering last night's action) but those pedestrian numbers are ok as they've converted an incredible 13 of 14 save opportunities here in St. Louis. Against division opponents they're 9-for-10 on save opportunities. Take St. Louis (10*). |
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06-24-21 | Wings v. Fever OVER 162 | Top | 89-64 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
WNBA Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and Indiana at 7 pm et on Thursday. We missed with Dallas two nights ago as it dropped a disappointing 80-70 decision at the hands of Connecticut after blowing a big second half lead. Here, I look for the Wings to pick up the pieces and turn in a stellar offensive performance but I'm not counting on their defensive play to excel against a desperate Indiana squad. Dallas has shot 59-for-125 (47.2%) over its last two games and should feast in this bounce-back spot. Indiana actually turned in a terrific defensive effort last time out but still gave up 82 points in a losing effort despite holding Minnesota to a 37% shooting night. Keep in mind, prior to that game, the lowly Fever had allowed nine straight opponents to shoot 42.4% or better from the field with five of those opponents shooting 49.3% or better. The Fever are now a miserable 1-14 on the season but will perhaps look at this as a prime opportunity to pick up a rare win after just missing against the Lynx on Tuesday. Dallas has now allowed three of its last four opponents to score 80 points or more. Opponents are averaging 83.3 points per game when the Wings play on the road this season. The fact that the last five meetings in this series have all stayed 'under' the total and the Fever enter this one riding a three-game 'under' streak has actually set us up with a generously-low total. Take the over (10*). |
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06-23-21 | Lightning v. Islanders UNDER 5 | Top | 2-3 | Push | 0 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
NHL Elimination Game Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Tampa Bay and New York at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Lightning rolled to an 8-0 victory in Game 5 of this series on Monday (we won with Tampa Bay in that game). I'm expecting a much lower-scoring affair on Wednesday as the scene shifts back to Long Island for Game 6. The Isles are of course known for their defensive play under head coach Barry Trotz and that's what makes the lopsided nature of Game 5 so stunning. Back at home, the Isles should respond favorably as they've allowed just 2.1 goals per game at Nassau Coliseum this season. Note that the Lightning have also been a weaker offensive team on the road this season, where they average 2.9 goals per game, well below their season average of 3.3 goals per contest. The 'under' has actually gone 7-1 the last eight times the Lightning have played on the road looking to close out a playoff series with those games averaging just 4.2 total goals. The 'under' is also 9-1 with Tampa Bay playing on the road off a home win this season with those contests totaling an average of just 4.3 goals. Meanwhile, the Islanders have posted a 1-8 o/u record when revenging a loss by three goals or more this season with those games totaling an average of only 3.6 goals. Better still, the 'under' is a perfect 8-0 with the Isles coming off a shutout loss on the road over the last two seasons with that situation producing a staggeringly-low 2.7 total goals on average. We've yet to see consecutive games go 'over' the total in this series and I don't see it happening here either. Take the under (10*). |
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06-22-21 | Dodgers v. Padres UNDER 7.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
N.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and San Diego at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. We missed our free play on the 'under' in the opener of this series last night as a hot start at the plate by the Padres proved to be our downfall. Here, I won't hesitate to go back to the well, however, as we have a fine pitching matchup between Clayton Kershaw and Blake Snell. Kershaw enters this start having lasted at least six innings in seven consecutive outings. He owns an outstanding 2.73 ERA and 0.83 WHIP in 10 nighttime starts this season. He'll be pitching on five days' rest here. The Padres have never really been able to figure Kershaw out, somewhat incredibly scoring three earned runs or less in each of their last 23 games against him. The Dodgers bullpen has been terrific lately, posting a sub-3.00 ERA over their last seven games and check in sporting a collective 3.27 ERA and 1.19 WHIP with 18 converted saves and only eight blown at night this season. Blake Snell has been a completely different pitcher at home compared to on the road this season. Here at Petco Park he owns a 1.65 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in six starts. He got lit up in his most recent outing but that was a less than ideal situation as he was pitching on four days' rest at hitter-friendly Coors Field in Colorado no less. The Dodgers have had four looks at Snell going back to last year's playoffs. They've managed to score only seven earned runs on just 13 hits in 20 1/3 innings against him in those four games. The Padres have one of the best bullpens in baseball, checking in with a 2.72 ERA and 1.03 WHIP with 16 saves and only four blown saves at home this season. Take the under (10*). |
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06-22-21 | Clippers v. Suns UNDER 224 | Top | 103-104 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Phoenix at 9:05 pm et on Tuesday. Thanks to Game 1 finishing north of 230 points we're dealing with a considerably higher posted total than we saw in the series-opener, a move that I'm not convinced is warranted. The Clippers allowed the Suns to shoot better than 55% from the field in Game 1. Perhaps that wasn't all that surprising considering how little time they had to prepare for the Suns surging offense (which had a different look than they're used to with Chris Paul sidelined). Here, we can bank on the Clippers responding favorably from a defensive standpoint noting that on five previous occasions where they've come off a game where they've allowed the opposition to shoot better than 55% from the field they've given up just 103.6 points per contest. Note that the 'under' has gone 32-18 the last 50 times the Clippers have played as a road underdog, as is the case here. The Suns are known for their offense led by Devin Booker (who recorded a triple-double in Game 1) and Chris Paul (who as I mentioned remains sidelined). However, they're actually a quality defensive team, allowing just 106.5 points per game on 45.5% shooting at home this season. There's no question that Kawhi Leonard's absence makes the Clippers a weaker defensive team but it hurts them offensively as well. The Suns didn't do a great job of defending Paul George in Game 1 but just like Los Angeles, Phoenix should make the necessary defensive adjustments here. Noting that this will now be the fifth meeting between these two teams this season with only Game 1 finding its way 'over' the total we're dealing with for Game 2, familiarity has a tendency to lend itself to tighter, lower-scoring contests. Take the under (10*). |
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06-21-21 | Brewers v. Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
National League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Monday. We won with the 'over' in the Brewers 7-6 win over the Rockies yesterday and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as they continue their road trip against the reeling D'Backs in Arizona. Brett Anderson will take the ball for the Brewers. He's coming off a surprisingly strong start against the Reds, tossing seven shutout innings. That was at home, however. He's been awful on the road this season, posting a 5.47 ERA and 1.46 WHIP while averaging just 3.5 innings per start. The fact that he hasn't been able to work deep into ball games doesn't bode well given the Brewers overworked bullpen hasn't had a day off in two weeks and checks in sporting a collective 4.76 ERA and 1.59 WHIP with two converted saves to go along with two blown over their last seven games. The D'Backs have already faced Anderson once this season, chasing him after just 4 1/3 innings, scoring three earned runs on eight hits and striking out only once. Merrill Kelly will counter for Arizona. The Brewers have seen him three times since the start of the 2019 season, including once this year. In their last two games against Kelly they've hit him hard, scoring 10 earned runs on 14 hits, including three home runs, in just 10 1/3 innings. Kelly owns a 5.19 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in 11 nighttime starts this season. Working behind Kelly is an awful D'Backs bullpen that has posted a collective 5.29 ERA and 1.53 WHIP with only three converted saves and four blown here at home this season. Take the over (10*). |
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06-21-21 | Indians v. Cubs -135 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -135 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
MLB Revenge Game of the Year. My selection is on Chicago over Cleveland at 8:05 pm et on Monday. While both of these teams 'avoided the sweep' with narrow victories on Sunday, it's the Cubs that are better-positioned to keep the positive momentum building here at home on Monday night. Cleveland was red hot before dropping two of three games against the lowly Pirates in Pittsburgh. Keep in mind, the Indians have been a weaker team on the road compared to at home, checking in just two games above .500 in the visitors' role this season. Similarly, the Cubs have been much better here at Wrigley Field, where they're an impressive 25-12 on the season. With all of that being said, perhaps it's not surprising that the Indians swept a short two-game series with the Cubs in Cleveland back in May. Aaron Civale will take the ball for the Indians on Monday. He's pitched poorly in three of his last four starts and now finds himself in a difficult situation, starting on just four days' rest for the second straight outing. We're bound to see some regression when it comes to Civale's incredible 10-2 team record in 12 starts this season. And it should come sooner rather than later given the fact that he's been tagged for 13 earned runs in 25 innings of work over his last four starts. Behind Civale is a good Indians bullpen, but one that has been better at home than on the road. The Cleveland 'pen entered yesterday's action sporting a 3.99 ERA and 1.36 WHIP on the road this season. Adbert Alzolay will counter for Chicago. Unlike Civale, he won't be dealing with a potentially 'tired arm' here as he hasn't started a game since June 7th due to a blister issue. Alzolay was in a similarly poor situation to Civale in his most recent outing, pitching on four days' rest for the second straight start. Perhaps it should come as no surprise that he struggled in that start against the Padres (who were seeing him for the second time in five days), allowing four earned runs in just three innings. Alzolay has been sharp here at home this season, guiding the Cubs to a 4-2 record in six previous starts while posting a 3.56 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. The Cubs bullpen has been as good as it gets here at home this season, recording a 2.57 ERA and 1.16 WHIP with 12 saves converted and only three blown (entering yesterday's action). Expect them to shut the door on any potential comeback attempts by the Indians here tonight. Take Chicago (10*). |
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06-20-21 | Wales v. Italy UNDER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 15 h 0 m | Show |
Euro Group Stage Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' 2.5 goals between Italy and Wales at 12 noon et on Sunday. After we won with the 'over' in Italy's tournament debut against Turkey we cashed with the Azzurri but missed with our free play on the 'under' in their 3-0 victory over Switzerland last time out. Here, I'm confident we'll finally see a match involving Italy total less than three goals as they take on Wales with both sides looking for little more than a tune-up leading up to the knockout stage. At least seven changes are expected to Italy's starting lineup. The Azzurri are obviously a deep squad but there's no question we're going to see a drop-off in execution, particularly at their opponent's end of the pitch with the likes of Immobile, Barella and Insigne likely on the bench. Even Chiesa, who made a late entrance into the match against Switzerland may start this contest on the sideline. For Wales, it is coming off a somewhat improbable 2-0 victory over Turkey that all but assured it advancement to the next round. After looking rather punchless in its tournament opener against Switzerland, a game they somehow managed to draw 1-1, the Welsh did show much more promise against Turkey. Now that they have four points under their belt, however, we're unlikely to see the same type of fire from the Welsh here. Lineup changes are almost a certainty and the fact that they're such a sizable underdog against what is essentially Italy's 'B' squad is telling in my opinion. A 2-0 result is the most likely outcome in this contest. With that being said, a 0-0 or 1-1 result is well within the realm of possibility as well should Italy show no interest in playing for keeps. Take the under (10*). |
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06-19-21 | Bucks v. Nets -1 | Top | 115-111 | Loss | -114 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Brooklyn minus the points over Milwaukee at 8:35 pm et on Saturday. We got what we wanted in Game 6 of this series as the Bucks cruised to an easy, double-digit victory to force a seventh and deciding game back in Brooklyn on Saturday night. Here, we'll back the Nets at a short number as they look to hold serve for a fourth time at home and advance to the Eastern Conference Finals in the process. The Bucks have offered the Nets their best punches in the last two games of this series, shooting better than 49% from the field in a six-point loss here in Brooklyn in Game 5 before registering a 16-point home win in Game 6. Now it's the Nets turn to answer back with a peak performance here at home, even without Kyrie Irving. Brooklyn has of course been a tremendous home team this season, going 34-8 while outscoring the opposition by just shy of eight points per game. The Nets have gone a perfect 6-0 SU and ATS here at home in these playoffs. Game 6 was always going to be an uphill battle for the Nets off an emotional, Kevin Durant-fueled Game 5 victory here at home. Not surprisingly, the Bucks came out with more energy and had little trouble forcing a seventh game. Now the situation sets up well for the Nets, noting that Milwaukee has gone 5-14 ATS when playing on the road after winning two of its last three games this season. We're dealing with a short pointspread here for a reason as the Nets certainly aren't the same team without their 'Big Three' intact. With that being said, I do think they're right where they want to be, at home with a chance to close out this series, and I look for them to take full advantage. Take Brooklyn (10*). |
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06-19-21 | Lightning v. Islanders OVER 5 | Top | 2-3 | Push | 0 | 14 h 31 m | Show |
NHL Stanley Cup Semis Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Tampa Bay and New York at 8:05 pm et on Saturday. We won with the 'under' in Game 3 of this series two nights ago but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'over' on Saturday as the Islanders look to answer back following consecutive losses. New York has to realize at this point that it's not going to win this series by sitting back on its heels. The Isles have now registered less than 30 shots in consecutive games. When they've been at their best in these playoffs they've been playing with an attacking mindset, as evidenced by their lone win in this series, a 2-1 victory in Game 1 where they fired 31 shots on goal. Note that the 'over' is 8-2 with the Isles playing at home after a game where three or less total goals were scored this season, as is the case here. That situation has produced a whopping 7.2 goals on average this season. The 'over' is also 22-12 with the Isles revenging a one-goal loss against an opponent over the last two seasons with an average total of 6.4 goals scored in that spot. Meanwhile, the Lightning have posted a 13-6 o/u record when playing consecutive road games this season with that situation producing 6.4 total goals on average. Over the last two seasons, Lightning games following an 'under' result have averaged 6.0 total goals. The Lightning aren't likely to sit back and play conservatively just because they've grabbed a 2-1 series lead. I look for both teams to find more offensive success than we saw in a tightly-contested Game 3. We'll take advantage of the '5' being offered tonight. Take the over (10*). |
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06-19-21 | Lynx v. Wings -164 | Top | 77-95 | Win | 100 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
WNBA Moneyline Game of the Year. My selection is on Dallas over Minnesota at 8 pm et on Saturday. We missed with the Wings two nights ago as they fell in this same matchup against the Lynx - a game that was never really all that close. Here, I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the Wings as they look to bounce back, but rather than lay the points, I'll back them on the moneyline at what I consider to be a very reasonable price. As I noted in Thursday's analysis, the Wings have certainly been playing better of late, winning four of their last seven games overall following a four-game slide. In retrospect, Dallas was in a bit of a tough spot on Thursday as it was returning home following a successful but lengthy five-game road trip that spanned the first two weeks of the month. Here, I look for the Wings to regain their footing and get back on the winning side. Everything went right for the Lynx right out of the gate on Thursday as the Wings found themselves chasing the game all night long. The trio of Sylvia Fowles, Kayla McBride and Napheesa Collier shot a blazing 22-of-35 from the field for the Lynx on Thursday. Now it's up to the Wings to make the necessary defensive adjustments and I'm confident they'll do just that noting that in spite of Thursday's poor effort, they've still held their last five opponents to just 41.4% shooting. While Minnesota shot the lights out on Thursday, Dallas just couldn't get in rhythm with key contributors Marina Mabrey and Satou Sabally combining to shoot 2-of-15 from the field. Even star Arike Ogunbowale had an off night, connecting on just 8-of-19 shots while getting to the free throw line only twice. We'll chalk up that ugly performance as anomaly in the dreaded first game back following a long trip. Consistency has been tough to come by for the Lynx this season as they enter this one having alternated wins and losses over their last four games. While they held the Wings under 35% shooting on Thursday that came on the heels of a game in which they allowed Chicago to score 105 points on 57.1% shooting (we won with the 'over' in that contest). Note that Minnesota is just 23-42 SU the last 65 times it has come off an outright underdog win over a conference opponent, as is the case here. The Lynx are also just 6-9 SU after scoring 77 points or more in four consecutive games over the last two seasons. Take Dallas moneyline (10*). |
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06-19-21 | A's +1.5 v. Yankees | Top | 5-7 | Loss | -165 | 5 h 2 m | Show |
American League Run-Line Game of the Month. My selection is on Oakland +1.5 runs over New York at 1:05 pm et on Saturday. We won with the A's on the run-line (free play) last night even though we didn't even need the insurance run in a 5-3 victory. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as they continue their series with the Yankees in the Bronx. Chris Bassitt gets the start for Oakland. He was quietly an A.L. Cy Young contender last season and after a slow start this year, he has been excellent for the A's once again. Bassitt checks in sporting a 3.98 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in seven road starts this season with the A's winning all seven of those games. While he was shaky in his most recent road start in Seattle back on June 1st, it's worth noting that he was pitching on four days' rest for the second straight start in that one. Here, he pitches on five days' rest for a second consecutive outing. Bassitt will also have the advantage of the Yankees having never faced him. Behind Bassitt is a solid A's bullpen that entered last night's game having worked just 20 2/3 innings over their last seven contests, with an off day in the mix as well. They've posted a 3.21 ERA and 1.23 WHIP on the road this season. Domingo German will counter for New York. He's generally been awful over his last four starts. In six daytime starts this season he owns an ugly 5.34 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. He averages just 5 1/3 innings per start here at home and while that's generally not a problem as the Yankees bullpen is terrific, we're talking about a group that has been somewhat overworked lately and has struggled a bit as a result. Entering last night's game, the Yankees relief corps had worked 29 1/3 innings over their last seven contests, recording a collective 3.99 ERA and 1.43 WHIP along the way. Finally, I'll point out that the A's have faced German three times since the 2018 season, knocking him around for 13 earned runs in just 15 1/3 innings. With the A's roster mostly intact from recent years, look for them to find continued success here today. Take Oakland +1.5 runs (10*). |
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06-18-21 | Mercury v. Sparks UNDER 157.5 | Top | 80-66 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
WNBA Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and Los Angeles at 10:30 pm et on Friday. We missed with the 'under' in this same matchup two nights ago but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. We're being given a more favorable number to work with and I look for both teams to make the necessary defensive adjustments to help keep this one 'under' the total. The Sparks had no answers for Mercury star Brittney Griner on Wednesday as she shot 10-of-16 from the field and got to the free throw line 12 times on her way to a 30-point explosion. I fully expect to see the Sparks make some adjustments and do a better job of keeping her contained here. I also think we'll see things balance out a bit after the Mercury held a 28-6 free throw edge two nights ago. Credit Los Angeles for prevailing in that contest thanks to shooting 45% from the field. Keep in mind, this is a team that had shot 36.8% or worse from the field in their previous three games. Phoenix will undoubtedly respond with a better defensive effort, noting that it had previously held six straight opponents to 42.7% or worse shooting. The 'over' has now cashed in each of the Mercury's last two games. Note that they've yet to post three straight 'over' results this season. The last time they were in position to do so they totaled just 151 points in their next game. The Sparks on the other hand have yet to post consecutive 'over' results this season. Their two previous contests following an 'over' result totaled just 131 and 144 points. Take the under (10*). |
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06-18-21 | White Sox v. Astros +103 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 103 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
MLB American League Game of the Week. My selection is on Houston over Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Friday. The Astros cruised to a 10-2 win in the opener of this four-game series last night and have now won four games in a row and 12 of their last 16 overall. I look for them to keep rolling on Friday. Carlos Rodon will take the ball for the White Sox. He's been terrific this season, there's no denying that. However, here he'll be pitching on four days' rest for the second straight start after going seven innings in his last outing against the Tigers. He'll also be facing an Astros lineup that has feasted on left-handed pitching this season, hitting .270 as a team and averaging 5.6 runs per game against southpaw starters. Behind Rodon is a somewhat overworked White Sox bullpen given the team hasn't had a day off since back on June 7th. Luis Garcia will counter for Houston. He has quietly been one of the Astros most effective starters this season and has been outstanding here at home where he owns a 1.91 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in five starts, with the Astros winning three of those games. Houston's bullpen has been solid here at home this season, recording a collective 3.79 ERA and 1.18 WHIP with just three blown saves compared to seven converted. Unlike the White Sox, who have been playing every day for nearly two weeks straight, the Astros were just off on Monday. Take Houston (10*). |
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06-18-21 | 76ers -150 v. Hawks | Top | 104-99 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
NBA Second Round Moneyline Game of the Year. My selection is on Philadelphia moneyline over Atlanta at 7:35 pm et on Friday. We'll back the 76ers on the moneyline in this matchup as while I do expect them to prevail, their poor free throw shooting could leave the backdoor ever so slightly open in the late stages of this contest. Credit Atlanta for rallying to steal Game 5 in Philadelphia two nights ago. The 76ers were guilty of taking their foot off the gas and perhaps looking ahead to a potential series clincher here in Atlanta in Game 6. Instead, now it's the 76ers who will be facing elimination on Friday night. I look for them to avoid that fate, however. Philadelphia is a quality road team by NBA standards, having posted a 22-18 SU record away from home this season, outscoring the opposition by 2.9 points per game on average. Note that the Sixers check in a solid 35-18 SU having outscored opponents by an average margin of 5.5 points after losing two of their last three games over the last three seasons, as is the case here. Meanwhile, Atlanta is a long-term loser at 18-39 SU the last 57 times it has played after recording consecutive outright underdog wins. There's really no intimidation factor at play here. The 76ers know they can beat the Hawks, regardless of the setting, having already posted a 16-point victory here on this floor back in Game 3. Philadelphia hasn't lost three games in a row since a four-game skid from April 19th-24th and it's worth noting that it was the underdog in three of those four contests, unlike this situation where it has been favored in every game in this series. Take Philadelphia moneyline (10*). |
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06-18-21 | Mets v. Nationals -113 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
N.L. East Game of the Year. My selection is on Washington over New York at 7:05 pm et on Friday. The Mets had their three-game winning streak snapped at the hands of the Cubs last night while the Nationals enter this series off of four straight victories. I look for Washington to keep its winning streak intact for at least one more night. Joey Lucchesi will take the ball for New York. He's been awful in five road starts this season, posting a 6.75 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. Worse still, he has recorded an 8.77 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in four nighttime starts. Averaging just 3 2/3 innings per start we're likely to see plenty of the Mets bullpen in this one. While New York's relief corps has posted fine overall numbers this season, it has struggled on the road having recorded a collective 4.43 ERA and 1.37 WHIP with eight blown saves to go along with nine converted. Speaking of bullpens, it's certainly worth noting that the Mets haven't had an off day in over a week while the Nats' were idle yesterday. Erick Fedde gets the start for the Nationals. His numbers aren't great by any means, far from it in fact. However, he has pitched well over his last few starts, recording a 1.59 ERA and 1.00 WHIP while working at least five innings in all three of those outings. Behind him is a terrific Nats' bullpen that has posted a collective 3.09 ERA and 1.14 WHIP at home this season, converting eight save opportunities while blowing only three. Take Washington (10*). |
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06-17-21 | Diamondbacks v. Giants -191 | Top | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 7 h 42 m | Show |
N.L. West Game of the Month. My selection is on San Francisco over Arizona at 3:45 pm et on Thursday. We're being asked to lay a fairly steep price to back the home side here, but I believe it could be even higher. We cashed our free play on the Giants last night as they rallied from an early deficit to win a wild, high-scoring affair. I'm not expecting that same type of game to play out on Thursday but I'm confident the end result will be the same. Zac Gallen is expected to get the nod for the D'Backs as he makes his return from the I.L. His early season results were mixed, much like the early stages of his big league career. Note that he faced the Giants three times last season and in the third game we saw San Francisco finally figure him out, scoring four earned runs over just five innings. Gallen wasn't able to work deep into ball games with any consistency when he was healthy earlier this season and that spells trouble here as he'll likely not be extended too much, meaning we'll see plenty of an awful D'Backs bullpen that entered last night's action sporting a collective 4.71 ERA and 1.43 WHIP on the road this season, recording just three saves compared to eight blown. Kevin Gausman will start for the Giants. He remains one of the most underrated starters in all of baseball this season. There's a reason the Giants rewarded him with a substantial contract prior to this season. He's been lights out here at home this season, posting a 2.33 ERA and 0.56 WHIP in four starts. Better still, he has recorded a 1.25 ERA and 0.69 WHIP in six daytime starts with the Giants winning five of those games. The D'Backs have faced Gausman four times since the start of the 2019 season and have yet to figure him out, managing just four earned runs in 24 innings. With Gausman averaging 6 2/3 innings per start at home this season we may not need much help from the San Francisco defense. However, I will point out that the Giants 'pen has been outstanding this season, recording a collective 2.53 ERA and 1.00 WHIP with 13 converted saves compared to just two blown here at home (entering last night's action). Take San Francisco (10*). |
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06-16-21 | Canadiens +1.5 v. Golden Knights | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 34 h 51 m | Show |
NHL Playoff Puck-Line Game of the Year. My selection is on Montreal +1.5 goals over Vegas at 9:05 pm et on Wednesday. Credit the Habs for at least staying in the game in the opener of this series on Monday night. They could have easily folded the tent after falling behind 2-0 early in the second period but answered back with a goal to cut the lead in half. They could have also let the game get out of hand after a quick response from Vegas to make it 3-1 but instead they battled in the third period, ultimately outshooting the Knights 12-9 in the final frame and falling by a 4-1 score. The Canadiens are very much a team with 'nothing to lose' here in the Stanley Cup semi-final round. Few expected them to get out of the first round let alone make it out of the North Division. Facing the Knights is a tall task and I certainly don't expect them to win this series. However, I do think they're well-positioned to give Vegas a run in Game 2 on Wednesday night. Note that Montreal is 11-5 after scoring a goal or less in its last game this season, averaging 3.1 goals per game and outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 0.7 goals in that spot. We've also seen the Habs allow just 2.4 goals per game and outscore opponents by an average margin of 0.4 goals when revenging a loss by four goals or more over the last two seasons, with that situation coming up 21 times previously. The Knights are just 4-10 when coming off consecutive home wins by two goals or more in franchise history, allowing 3.5 goals per game and outscored by an average margin of 0.6 goals in that spot. Vegas is a terrific team and certainly has a clear path to a Stanley Cup title at this point. However, I don't think it will go completely untested in this series. Look for the Habs to keep things close at the very least in Game 2 on Wednesday night. Take Montreal +1.5 goals (10*). |
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06-16-21 | Hawks v. 76ers OVER 223.5 | Top | 109-106 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
NBA Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Philadelphia at 7:30 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the 'under' in Game 4 of this series on Monday night but I'll switch gears and back the 'over' as the series shifts back to Philadelphia for Game 5. The Hawks aren't going to slow down the 76ers offense here in Philadelphia. That's a feat they've yet to accomplish in four previous tries this season, allowing 127, 127, 124 and 118 points. I fully expect to see them come out with an attacking mindset from the opening tip on Wednesday as they look to take advantage of a somewhat depleted 76ers defense with Joel Embiid playing on a bad knee. Monday's miserable 36.6% shooting performance from Atlanta had more to do with poor shot selection than it did the 76ers defense as far as I'm concerned. Look for the Hawks to do a better job of knocking down their shots on Wednesday night. For the 76ers this is obviously a critical contest as they look to avoid being pushed to the brink of elimination with the series going back to Atlanta for Game 6. Note that the Hawks have been a considerably weaker defensive team on the road compared to at home this season, allowing 112.9 points per game on north of 47% shooting. For their part, the 76ers check in averaging over 118 points per game here at home. Note that the 'over' has gone 14-5 with the 76ers playing at home after winning two of their last three games this season with those contests averaging a total of 229.7 points. The 'over' is also 15-5 with Philadelphia coming off a loss by six points or less, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 226.3 points over the last two seasons. Take the over (10*). |
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06-16-21 | Angels v. A's OVER 9 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 6 h 28 m | Show |
MLB Daytime Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Oakland at 3:35 pm et on Wednesday. We've seen consecutive relatively high-scoring games between these two teams to open this series and I expect more of the same on Wednesday afternoon. Griffin Canning will take the ball for the Angels. He has struggled on the road this season, posting a 5.25 ERA and 1.38 WHIP in five starts with three of those games finding their way 'over' the total. Worse still, he has recorded an 8.81 ERA and 1.89 WHIP in four daytime starts. After struggling against Canning in the 2019 season, the A's had a lot more success against him last year, facing him three times and scoring 10 earned runs in just 13 1/3 innings. With Canning averaging less than five innings per start this season we should see plenty of the Angels below-average and overworked bullpen, which allowed another three earned runs in last night's loss. L.A.'s 'pen has recorded a collective 5.15 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in day games this season. Left-hander Cole Irvin will counter for Oakland. The Angels will be getting their second look at him this season after scoring four earned runs off of him over six innings in a game back on May 30th. Of course, the Angels have been a far better hitting team against southpaw starters this season, hitting .275 and averaging 5.9 runs per game. Irvin has been good but certainly not great at home this season, posting a 4.30 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. He's averaging right around 5 2/3 innings per start here in 2021. While the A's bullpen has been terrific in terms of converted save percentage here at home (12 saves converted compared to two blown), they will give up some runs. They allowed two earned runs in two frames in last night's 6-4 victory and now own a 4.54 ERA and 1.31 WHIP at home this season. Take the over (10*). |
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06-16-21 | Switzerland v. Italy -154 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
Euro Group Stage Game of the Year. My selection is on Italy over Switzerland at 3 pm et on Wednesday. Italy faced little resistance in its tournament opening victory over Turkey and while it figures to face a tougher challenge here, I look for it to rise to the occasion once again. For Switzerland, it could certainly use a point from this match but even if it fails to get it, a victory in its final group stage contest against Turkey would likely be enough for advancement, depending on how today's earlier match between Wales and Turkey goes. While the Swiss sit 13th in the international FIFA rankings I'm just not convinced they have the offensive firepower to break through against an extremely tough Italian defense. In fact, Italy hasn't conceded a single goal in its last nine matches. While it hasn't exactly faced the toughest of competition over that stretch, going back a little further finds additional clean sheets posted against the likes of the Netherlands and Poland in late 2020. A victory here would certainly lock up advancement from the group stage for Italy and I'm confident that will be the focus. Keep in mind, while the final score read 3-0 in its opener, it controlled proceedings from the start, firing 24 shots, with eight of those reaching the target. This is another match where the opposition will likely allow the Italians to dictate the tempo and control much of the possession. That suits the Italians just fine. Few teams boast the level of form and structure the Azurri do at both ends of the pitch. We're being asked to lay a very reasonable price to back the superior squad here. I have this one going 1-0 or 2-0 to Italy. Take Italy (10*). |
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06-15-21 | Marlins v. Cardinals OVER 7.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
N.L. Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and St. Louis at 8:15 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the 'over' in Marlins ace Trevor Rogers' most recent start last week against the Rockies as that game totaled 15 runs. In fact, that was the third time in Rogers' last four outings that the game reached exactly 15 total runs. While I'm not bold enough to call for that level of offensive production here, I do expect this one to find its way 'over' the very reasonable total. Rogers has been terrific this season. There's really no reason to knock him here. However, I will point out that the Cardinals did get a look at Rogers back in April and managed to chase him after just four innings, scoring three runs, two of them earned, on two hits and four walks. Note that St. Louis is 9-4 against left-handed starters this season, averaging 4.6 runs per game - well north of their season average. I'll also point out that Rogers will be starting on just four days' rest for a second straight time on Tuesday. Behind Rogers is an overworked Marlins bullpen that has blown eight saves compared to only six converted on the road this season. I say overworked because the Marlins haven't had a single day off here in June. Kwang-Hyun Kim will take the ball for the Cardinals. He was just activated off the I.L. after dealing with a back injury. While Kim got off to a solid start this season, it seems that as more teams get a look at him, he has started to struggle, posting a 6.58 ERA and 1.46 WHIP over his last three starts. His last two trips to the hill have resulted in 11 and 10 total runs. In fact, the 'over' is 6-2-1 in his nine starts overall this season. With Kim averaging just a shade over 4 2/3 innings per start this season and given the fact he's returning from the I.L., we should see plenty of the Cards bullpen on Tuesday. While they've posted a tremendous save conversion rate here at home (13 saves converted with only one blown), the rest of their numbers have been pretty pedestrian, posting a collective 4.34 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. In night games this season, the Cards 'pen has recorded a 4.89 ERA and 1.48 WHIP. Take the over (10*). |
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06-15-21 | Rangers v. Astros UNDER 8.5 | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -118 | 14 h 34 m | Show |
MLB A.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Texas and Houston at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. This series opens with a sneaky-good pitching matchup on Tuesday night as the Rangers send Kyle Gibson to the hill against Lance McCullers Jr. Gibson got lit up in his first start of the season but he's been terrific ever since. He checks in sporting a 3.41 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in six road starts this season. The Astros have had four previous looks at Gibson since the start of last season but they've yet to figure him out, managing to score just three earned runs off of him over 28 innings. While the Rangers awful bullpen is a concern, that concern is somewhat muted by the fact that Gibson averages a solid six innings per start and with the Astros likely to be out in front in the latter stages of this game, we may only have to deal with a couple of innings from the Texas 'pen. Lance McCullers Jr. will counter for Houston. He has posted a 3.14 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in five home starts this season and brings excellent current form into this start having recorded a 1.89 ERA and 1.16 WHIP over his last three outings. In three games against McCullers since the start of last season, the Rangers have managed to score just three earned runs in 15 innings. Working behind McCullers is an Astros bullpen that has has been solid at home, posting a collective 3.99 ERA and 1.20 WHIP with seven saves converted and only three blown. Take the under (10*). |
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06-15-21 | Islanders v. Lightning -182 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 31 h 22 m | Show |
NHL Stanley Cup Semi-Final Game of the Year. My selection is on Tampa Bay over New York at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Lightning got off to a typically sluggish start in Game 1 of this series on Sunday, not all that surprising given they had been idle for four full days after finishing off the Hurricanes in five games. They did ultimately come alive in the latter stages of that contest, but it was too little, too late in a 2-1 loss. Here, I look for Tampa Bay to bounce back on home ice, where they've gone 24-10, outscoring opponents by 1.2 goals on average this season. Note that the Bolts are an incredible 19-3 after scoring one goal or less in their last game over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.1 goals in that spot. They're also a rock solid 58-22 when coming off a loss over the last three seasons. The Islanders have now won four games in a row - their longest winning streak since April 1st to 8th. On that occasion, they failed to make it five straight victories, falling by a 4-1 score at home against the Rangers. New York is a long-term loser when playing on the road after winning three or more games in a row, going 28-57 in their last 85 opportunities. Note that the Isles are averaging just 2.1 goals per game when playing on the road off a win this season. Meanwhile, the Lightning have allowed just 1.9 goals per game when revenging a loss where they scored one goal or less this season, as is the case here. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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06-14-21 | Angels v. A's -159 | Top | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 13 h 18 m | Show |
A.L. West Game of the Month. My selection is on Oakland over Los Angeles at 9:40 pm et on Monday. The Angels are red hot on the heels of consecutive three-game sweeps of the D'Backs and Royals, winners of eight of their last nine games overall. However, the A's are rolling as well, fresh off three straight wins over the Royals and riding a 9-2 run over their last 11 games. I like the home side to keep it going on Monday night. Dylan Bundy will take the ball for the Angels. The wheels have come off for him a little bit lately as he's failed to last at least six innings in five straight starts and checks in sporting a 6.00 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in five nighttime starts this season. The A's have seemingly figured him out over their last couple of games against him, scoring six earned runs on 12 hits in only eight innings. With Bundy averaging just a shade over five innings per start this season we should see plenty of the Angels below-average bullpen in this one as well. Los Angeles' 'pen has posted a collective 4.53 ERA and 1.40 WHIP with nine saves and seven blown in night games this season. Sean Manaea will counter for Oakland. After a tough start to the season he's rounded into form, posting a 2.96 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in eight starts here at home with the A's winning seven of those. Going back over his last four starts, Manaea has allowed just two earned runs in 26 2/3 innings of work. With Manaea averaging north of six innings per start here at home this season, the A's bullpen isn't a major concern, but they have been solid, particularly at home where they've recorded a somewhat lofty 4.31 ERA but a respectable 1.29 WHIP with 10 converted saves compared to only two blown. While the Angels have hit left-handed starting pitching well this season, they haven't done much against Manaea, managing just two earned runs in 11 2/3 innings in two games against him this season. The A's bats have finally woken up lately, scoring 31 runs in their last six games, with Matt Chapman in particular getting on a bit of a heater at the dish over the last few games. Take Oakland (10*). |
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06-13-21 | Suns v. Nuggets +3 | Top | 125-118 | Loss | -103 | 22 h 21 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Denver plus the points over Phoenix at 8:05 pm et on Sunday. This line is moving in the wrong direction in my opinion. While the Nuggets are highly unlikely to give the Suns a serious run int his series I do think that they can salvage at least one game. Note that Denver is 10-2 ATS when revenging a home loss against an opponent this season, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 10.3 points. In fact, coming off a home loss of any kind this season, the Nuggets have outscored opponents by 12.8 points on average the 12 times that situation has come up. They're also an impressive 17-5 ATS when coming off three or more consecutive ATS losses, as is the case here, over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 14.4 points in that situation. I have a lot of respect for Phoenix. There's a reason I didn't fade them in Game 3 (instead playing the 'under'). However, the fourth win is always the toughest in a series and I expect them to get extended at least one more game against a Nuggets squad that should play with some pride on Sunday night. Take Denver (10*). |
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06-13-21 | Islanders v. Lightning UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 18 h 10 m | Show |
NHL on NBC Playoff Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Tampa Bay at 3:05 pm et on Sunday. We cashed with the 'over' on three separate occasions during the Islanders series win over the Bruins last round. Here, I'll switch gears and back the 'under' as the Isles open their Stanley Cup semi-final series against the Lightning in Tampa. Note that the 'under' has gone 22-10-2 in all Islanders road games this season with those contests totaling an average of just 4.8 goals. The 'under' has gone 9-2 with the Isles coming off consecutive 'over' results this season, with that situation producing an average total of just 3.7 goals. The 'under' is also 12-2 with the Lightning coming off a shutout victory over the last three seasons, with those games totaling an average of only 4.7 goals. The Isles carried an attacking mindset against the Bruins, who were missing a key piece on defense in Brandon Carlo, and who had an injured goaltender in Tuukka Rask. Here, I think we'll see the Isles employ a different gameplan as they look to muck things up and slow down the explosive Lightning offense. While these two teams haven't met this season, six of their last nine matchups have stayed 'under' the total. Take the under (10*). |
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06-13-21 | Nets v. Bucks OVER 228 | Top | 96-107 | Loss | -103 | 18 h 41 m | Show |
NBA on ABC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Brooklyn and Milwaukee at 3:05 pm et on Sunday. We've missed with the 'over' in the last couple of games in this series but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here in Game 4 on Sunday afternoon. The fact that the Nets are favored in this game is key. Note that the 'over' is 18-8 with Brooklyn checking in as a road favorite this season with those contests totaling an average of 239.8 points. Meanwhile the 'over' is 8-1 with the Bucks coming off a home win where they failed to cover the spread this season with those games reaching an average total of 248.6 points. Milwaukee has been a solid positive momentum play offensively this season, averaging a whopping 122.4 points per game when coming off a victory, as is the case here. While the Bucks were set on mucking things up and grinding out a Game 3 victory, here I look for the Nets to make the necessary adjustments and turn Sunday's game into a track meet. Take the over (10*). |
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06-13-21 | Yankees v. Phillies UNDER 8.5 | Top | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 15 h 57 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Philadelphia at 1:05 pm et on Sunday. We saw a wild, high-scoring game between these two teams yesterday as the Phillies posted their third straight walk-off win by an 8-7 score in extra innings. I expect a different story to unfold on Sunday. Domingo German will take the ball for the Yankees. He owns a 2.10 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in five road starts this season, where he's averaged six innings per start. He'll have the advantage of never facing the Phillies. Behind German is a Yankees bullpen that entered yesterday's action sporting a collective 3.20 ERA and 1.02 WHIP on the road this season, making good on nine save opportunities while blowing only two. Aaron Nola will counter for Philadelphia. He's been terrific at home this season, recording a 3.02 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in six starts. He's been at his best in daytime starts, posting a 2.10 ERA and 0.82 WHIP. The Phillies bullpen has been in excellent form lately and has recorded a collective 3.93 ERA and 1.38 WHIP in day games this season. With Nola giving the Phillies over 6 1/3 innings per start in daytime outings this season, we may not need too much help from the Philadelphia 'pen here. Also note that in his lone previous start against the Yankees, Nola allowed just one earned run in six innings of work. Take the under (10*). |
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06-12-21 | Padres v. Mets +1.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
N.L. Run-Line Game of the Month. My selection is on New York +1.5 runs over San Diego at 4:10 pm et on Saturday. The Mets got the better of the Padres in last night's pitcher's duel (we won with the 'under') and I expect a similar story to unfold on Saturday. Joe Musgrove will take the ball for San Diego. He's off to an incredible start this season and of course already has a no-hitter to his credit. However, he has struggled in four daytime starts, posting a 4.50 ERA and he averages just north of five innings per start on the road. Musgrove has already faced the Mets once this season and it was one of his worst starts of the season as he allowed three earned runs on eight hits over just five innings (he did strike out 10 along the way). While the Padres bullpen working behind him has posted excellent overall numbers this season, I still feel it's an overworked group, having already pitched 271 innings (prior to last night's game). We've seen some regression from the Padres relief corps in recent weeks and could certainly see more of that should they get extended today. Marcus Stroman will counter for the Mets. He didn't allow a single earned run over 6 2/3 innings when he faced San Diego on June 6th. Stroman checks in sporting an impressive 2.02 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in four home starts this season. He's lasted at least six innings in six straight starts and behind him is one of the best bullpens in baseball, particularly here at home where the Mets relief corps has posted a collective 1.69 ERA and 1.11 WHIP (entering last night's action). We'll grab the insurance run here but hopefully won't need it. Take New York +1.5 runs (10*). |
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06-12-21 | White Sox -162 v. Tigers | Top | 15-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
A.L. Central Game of the Month. My selection is on Chicago over Detroit at 4:10 pm et on Saturday. The White Sox got past the Tigers in extra innings last night and I look for them to add to Detroit's misery on Saturday afternoon at Comerica Park. Dylan Cease will take the ball for Chicago. While he has struggled on the road this season, he's had no such issues against the Tigers over the course of his career. In fact, the White Sox are a perfect 7-0 in his seven previous starts against them. Detroit has already had two looks at Cease this season and four since the start of last year. However, if the Tigers haven't figured him out by now, they're likely not going to do so. Behind Cease is an average White Sox bullpen, but one that has excelled against A.L. Central opponents, posting a collective 3.07 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in 91 innings this season (entering last night's action). Jose Urena will counter for Detroit. This will be Chicago's third look at Urena this season. After struggling against him in their first go-round, we saw the White Sox bust out last Sunday, scoring three earned runs on six hits over five innings. With Urena averaging between four and five innings per start at home this season we're likely to see plenty of the Tigers bullpen, which has struggled here, posting a collective 4.31 ERA and 1.39 WHIP (entering last night's game). Interestingly, the Tigers 'pen has blown six saves while converting only five in day games this season. Take Chicago (10*). |
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06-11-21 | Rangers v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 1-12 | Win | 100 | 15 h 23 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Run-Line Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles -1.5 runs over Texas at 10:10 pm et on Friday. The Dodgers are showing signs of getting rolling again, coming off a three-game sweep of the Pirates in Pittsburgh. I look for them to win in convincing fashion with Clayton Kershaw on the hill against Mike Foltynewicz on Friday night. Foltynewicz is a somewhat familiar face to the Dodgers from his days in the National League. In six career starts against them, he's posted a 6.11 ERA and 1.71 WHIP. Of course, that's pretty much par for the course for Folty as so far this season he owns a 5.40 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in four road starts, with the Rangers winning just one of those games. While he has worked seven innings in two of his last three starts, he's still averaging just 5.5 innings per start this season which is concerning as the Rangers bullpen has been awful on the road, posting a collective 5.58 ERA and 1.57 WHIP. Clayton Kershaw is coming off back-to-back rough outings but should get back on track here. He has posted a 3.55 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in six home starts, with the Dodgers winning four of those games. Note that he's absolutely owned the opposition in three previous interleague starts, recording a sparkling 0.92 ERA and 0.56 WHIP in 19 2/3 innings of work. While the Rangers have hit better against left-handers this season, better is a relative term in this case as they're still averaging just 4.1 runs per game and hitting .241 against southpaws. With Kershaw averaging around 6 1/3 innings per start here at home, the Dodgers bullpen may not have to factor in too much, but it's worth noting that they've recorded a collective 2.75 ERA and 1.02 WHIP at home this season. Over their last seven games (entering yesterday's action) they've posted a 2.60 ERA and 0.90 WHIP with no blown saves. Take Los Angeles -1.5 runs (10*). |
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06-11-21 | 76ers v. Hawks UNDER 224.5 | Top | 127-111 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 44 m | Show |
NBA on ESPN Playoff Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Atlanta at 7:30 pm et on Friday. We barely escaped with a win with the 'under' in Game 2 of this series on Tuesday but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. The fact that the 76ers have shot better than 52% from the field in each of the first two games in this series is impressive, but not sustainable. In fact, Philadelphia checks in having shot better than 51% from the field in three straight games entering Friday's contest. Note that they haven't shot north of 50% in more than three consecutive games since the start of March and that five-game streak was the only time they pulled it off this season. Philadelphia has been a considerably worse offensive team on the road compared to at home this season, where it averages 110.5 points per game on 46.8% shooting. The good news for the Sixers is that they've actually allowed fewer points on the road than at home, giving up only 107.8 points per game with the 'under' cashing at a 23-15 clip this season. Likewise, Hawks home games have been lower scoring than their road games. They're an underrated defensive squad, particularly at home where they've allowed just 108.3 points per game on 44.7% shooting this season, with the 'under' going 21-16-1. Note that the 'under' is 12-4 with the 76ers playing on the road as a favorite of six points or less this season with those games totaling an average of just 215 points. Take the under (10*). |
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06-10-21 | Avalanche v. Golden Knights UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -113 | 14 h 8 m | Show |
NHL West Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and Vegas at 9:05 pm et on Thursday. Unlike last night, when I suggested the Islanders would come out with an attacking mindset with a chance to eliminate the Bruins on home ice, here I look for the Golden Knights to focus on staying fundamentally-sound defensively as they attempt to close out the Avalanche in Game 6. The Knights may be known for their offense but they've actually been very stout defensively here at home, where they allow just 2.1 goals per game this season. This will be the 14th meeting between these two teams this season with the 'under' having cashed at a 9-4 clip. Note that the 'under' has gone 21-11 with the Avs playing on the road revenging a loss against an opponent over the last two seasons. Better still, the 'under' is 9-2 with the Avs playing on the road off a one-goal loss over the last two seasons, 8-1 after they give up three goals or more in consecutive games this season and a perfect 6-0 after they've been held to two goals or less in consecutive contests this season. I don't see things suddenly opening up in this 'elimination game' on Thursday night. Take the under (10*). |
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06-10-21 | Nets v. Bucks -154 | Top | 83-86 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
NBA Playoff Moneyline Game of the Year. My selection is on Milwaukee moneyline over Brooklyn at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. I like the fact that the Bucks have had two full days to sit around and listen to everyone saying they're a 'regular season team' and that they have no shot at coming back against the Nets in this series. Keep in mind, Milwaukee closed as a favorite in Game 2 of this series in Brooklyn. The oddsmakers were certainly giving them more than just a chance at getting back in this series at that point. Now we're seeing an overreaction following the lopsided nature of Game 2. Consider that the Nets have gone just 2-7 SU after a win by 20 points or more this season, outscored by an average margin of 2.9 points in those nine contests. They're also just 3-7 SU when on the road after scoring 110 points or more in three straight games this season, outscored by an average margin of 6.3 points in that situation. Meanwhile, the Bucks are an incredible 15-3 SU when seeking revenge for a loss as a road favorite (yes, they closed as a short favorite in Game 2) over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 6.8 points in that spot. Finally, I'll point out that Milwaukee checks in 35-9 SU when playing at home off an ATS loss over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by 12.7 points on average in that situation. Take Milwaukee moneyline (10*). |
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06-09-21 | Nuggets v. Suns UNDER 222.5 | Top | 98-123 | Win | 100 | 24 h 2 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Second Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and Phoenix at 9:30 pm et on Wednesday. Game 1 of this game found its way 'over' the total which was not a surprising result by any means. I will be surprised if we don't see both teams tighten up defensively in Game 2 on Wednesday night, however. Note that the 'under' has gone 18-9 with the Nuggets coming off three straight games totaling 215 points or more this season with those contests totaling an average of 219.3 points. Also note that the Nuggets have allowed just 107.6 points per game when trailing in a playoff series over the last three seasons while the Suns have given up just 102.2 points per game when favoted by six points or less at home this season. The Suns have generally been at their best offensively with two or more days' rest between games in these playoffs - largely due to Chris Paul's nagging shoulder injury needing time to heal up between games. Here, we're back to a game on just one day of rest which I do think could diminish the Suns offense somewhat. Phoenix is absolutely locked in defensively right now holding the opposition to 46.7% shooting or worse in seven straight games. Meanwhile, the Nuggets know they need to toughen up defensively here after allowing opponents to shoot 50% or better in three of their last four games. The 'over' has cashed in three straight meetings in this series. Time for a reversal of that trend here. Take the under (10*). |
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06-09-21 | Bruins v. Islanders OVER 5 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
NHL East Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and New York at 7:35 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the 'over' in Game 5 of this series on Monday night - one of our easiest winning tickets of the entire playoffs. While my first instinct was to give a hard look at the 'under' in Game 6, I just can't get there given the state of the Bruins. Goaltender Tuukka Rask was of course lifted from Game 5 due to an undisclosed injury. Maybe he'll be able to go on Wednesday, but even if he can, he hasn't shown the ability to steal a game in these playoffs. Top defenseman Brandon Carlo is also sidelined, an absolute anchor defensively in the B's own end of the rink. The Islanders are a supremely confident squad right now and should keep an attacking mindset with a chance to eliminate the favored Bruins on home ice in Game 6, avoiding a Game 7 back in Boston. Remember, last round the Isles overwhelmed the Penguins, scoring five goals in a series-clinching Game 6 victory here at the Nassau Coliseum. The Isles know they can't stop the Bruins 'Perfection Line' with Pastrnak, Marchand and Bergeron generating a ton of scoring chances in this series, with a hand in the majority of the Bruins goals. Note that the Isles are averaging an impressive 3.5 goals per game on home ice this season. Meanwhile, the Bruins have averaged 4.0 goals per game when coming off two or more straight losses this season. Take the over (10*). |
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06-09-21 | Brewers v. Reds OVER 9.5 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
MLB National League Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and Cincinnati at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a somewhat surprising low-scoring contest between these two teams last night but I expect a different story to unfold on Wednesday. Veteran left-hander Brett Anderson will take the ball for the Brewers. He owns a 4.63 ERA and 1.67 WHIP in five nighttime starts this season and the Reds will be getting their fifth look at him since the start of last season. Note that he's allowed six home runs against them in those previous four starts. Anderson averages less than four innings per start on the road this season so we'll likely see plenty of a Brewers bullpen that while solid overall this season has really struggled against division opponents, posting a collective 5.01 ERA and 1.41 WHIP entering last night's contest. They got stretched out last night as Adrian Houser could give the Brew Crew just 5 1/3 innings in that 5-1 victory. Vladimir Gutierrez will get his third start of the season for the Reds. He's been fine through two starts but don't count on him to work deep into this ball game. Note that he's lasted just five innings in each of his previous two outings. That opens the door for a dreadful Reds bullpen that has recorded a collective 7.21 ERA and 1.48 WHIP here at home this season (entering last night's game), with just two converted save opportunities. The Brewers offense while subpar for much of the season, has come around a bit lately, averaging right around five runs per game over the last week. Take the over (10*). |
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06-09-21 | Nationals v. Rays -156 | Top | 9-7 | Loss | -156 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Game of the Month. My selection is on Tampa Bay over Washington at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. This price seems awfully short given the way the pitching matchup sets up on Wednesday night in St. Petersburg. Pat Corbin will take the ball for the Nationals. The wheels have fallen off for him a bit this season, particularly on the road, where he has posted a 7.30 ERA and 1.66 WHIP in five starts, with the Nationals winning only one of those games. He averages just a shade over five innings per start this season and you would have to go back five outings to find the last time he made it through the sixth inning. That spells trouble as the Nats' bullpen hasn't been good, recording a 4.53 ERA and 1.37 WHIP on the road. Entering last night's game, Washington's relief corps had posted a 6.26 ERA and 1.39 WHIP with a pair of blown save opportunities over their last seven games. Rookie Shane McClanahan will counter for Tampa Bay. He's made three home starts, recording a 3.77 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. While he averages less than five innings per start that's not a big concern as the Rays bullpen has been outstanding. Tampa relievers have posted a collective 2.85 ERA and 1.11 WHIP at home this season, making good on seven of nine save opportunities. The Rays have been one of the best teams in baseball in recent weeks and I look for them to post another victory on Wednesday. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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Sean Murphy ALL Sports Top Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
08-09-21 | Reds v. Indians OVER 9.5 | Top | 3-9 | Win | 100 | 9 h 36 m | Show |
08-08-21 | Angels v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
08-07-21 | Mariners v. Yankees OVER 10 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -106 | 5 h 47 m | Show |
08-06-21 | Tigers v. Indians -149 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 21 h 28 m | Show |
08-05-21 | Hamilton v. Winnipeg UNDER 51.5 | Top | 6-19 | Win | 100 | 32 h 40 m | Show |
08-05-21 | Twins v. Astros UNDER 9.5 | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 24 m | Show |
08-03-21 | Braves v. Cardinals UNDER 9 | Top | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 22 h 26 m | Show |
08-03-21 | Mariners v. Rays -152 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -152 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
08-02-21 | Mariners v. Rays OVER 8.5 | Top | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 21 h 19 m | Show |
08-01-21 | Twins v. Cardinals -133 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 7 h 42 m | Show |
07-31-21 | A's v. Angels OVER 10 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -113 | 5 h 24 m | Show |
07-30-21 | Indians v. White Sox UNDER 8.5 | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -111 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
07-29-21 | Rockies v. Padres UNDER 8 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
07-27-21 | Diamondbacks v. Rangers -148 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
07-26-21 | Reds v. Cubs -125 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
07-25-21 | Canada v. Costa Rica | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
07-23-21 | Tigers +112 v. Royals | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
07-23-21 | Padres v. Marlins OVER 8 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -101 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
07-21-21 | Cubs v. Cardinals UNDER 8 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 1 m | Show |
07-21-21 | Twins v. White Sox -135 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -135 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
07-20-21 | Guadeloupe v. Suriname OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 120 | 33 h 59 m | Show |
07-20-21 | Angels v. A's -137 | Top | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
07-19-21 | Pirates v. Diamondbacks -128 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 15 h 20 m | Show |
07-18-21 | Red Sox v. Yankees UNDER 9.5 | Top | 1-9 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 0 m | Show |
07-18-21 | Padres v. Nationals -104 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 7 h 47 m | Show |
07-17-21 | Bucks v. Suns UNDER 219 | Top | 123-119 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
07-17-21 | Mariners v. Angels -121 | Top | 4-9 | Win | 100 | 14 h 7 m | Show |
07-17-21 | Astros v. White Sox UNDER 8.5 | Top | 1-10 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
07-16-21 | Mariners v. Angels OVER 8.5 | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 27 m | Show |
07-14-21 | Suns +4 v. Bucks | Top | 103-109 | Loss | -109 | 59 h 20 m | Show |
07-11-21 | Suns v. Bucks -177 | Top | 100-120 | Win | 100 | 22 h 18 m | Show |
07-10-21 | Reds v. Brewers -189 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -189 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
07-10-21 | Royals v. Indians OVER 9 | Top | 6-14 | Win | 100 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
07-09-21 | Lynx v. Aces -6.5 | Top | 77-67 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 56 m | Show |
07-09-21 | Royals v. Indians -134 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
07-08-21 | Bucks v. Suns UNDER 220 | Top | 108-118 | Loss | -113 | 15 h 58 m | Show |
07-08-21 | Royals v. Indians -128 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
07-08-21 | Dodgers -151 v. Marlins | Top | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 48 m | Show |
07-07-21 | Cardinals v. Giants -175 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 16 h 35 m | Show |
07-07-21 | Canadiens v. Lightning -224 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
07-07-21 | Wings v. Lynx UNDER 169.5 | Top | 79-85 | Win | 100 | 7 h 4 m | Show |
07-06-21 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 56 m | Show |
07-06-21 | Phillies v. Cubs +1.5 | Top | 15-10 | Loss | -126 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
07-05-21 | Lightning v. Canadiens UNDER 5 | Top | 2-3 | Push | 0 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
07-05-21 | Reds v. Royals OVER 9.5 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -118 | 22 h 15 m | Show |
07-04-21 | Cardinals v. Rockies OVER 11 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 17 m | Show |
07-03-21 | Bucks v. Hawks -2.5 | Top | 118-107 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 0 m | Show |
07-03-21 | Dodgers v. Nationals UNDER 9 | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
07-03-21 | Denmark v. Czech Republic +0.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -125 | 5 h 43 m | Show |
07-02-21 | Twins v. Royals OVER 10 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
07-02-21 | Sky v. Wings UNDER 165.5 | Top | 91-100 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
07-01-21 | Rangers v. A's -174 | Top | 8-3 | Loss | -174 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
06-30-21 | Suns -1 v. Clippers | Top | 130-103 | Win | 100 | 24 h 37 m | Show |
06-29-21 | Giants +1.5 v. Dodgers | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -164 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
06-29-21 | Bucks v. Hawks +7 | Top | 88-110 | Win | 100 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
06-29-21 | Royals v. Red Sox OVER 10.5 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
06-29-21 | Ukraine v. Sweden | Top | 1-1 | Push | 0 | 17 h 42 m | Show |
06-29-21 | Germany v. England UNDER 2.5 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
06-28-21 | Cubs v. Brewers UNDER 7 | Top | 4-14 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
06-28-21 | Canadiens v. Lightning -195 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 23 h 55 m | Show |
06-26-21 | Suns -1 v. Clippers | Top | 84-80 | Win | 100 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
06-25-21 | Pirates v. Cardinals -160 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -160 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
06-24-21 | Wings v. Fever OVER 162 | Top | 89-64 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
06-23-21 | Lightning v. Islanders UNDER 5 | Top | 2-3 | Push | 0 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
06-22-21 | Dodgers v. Padres UNDER 7.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
06-22-21 | Clippers v. Suns UNDER 224 | Top | 103-104 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
06-21-21 | Brewers v. Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
06-21-21 | Indians v. Cubs -135 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -135 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
06-20-21 | Wales v. Italy UNDER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 15 h 0 m | Show |
06-19-21 | Bucks v. Nets -1 | Top | 115-111 | Loss | -114 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
06-19-21 | Lightning v. Islanders OVER 5 | Top | 2-3 | Push | 0 | 14 h 31 m | Show |
06-19-21 | Lynx v. Wings -164 | Top | 77-95 | Win | 100 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
06-19-21 | A's +1.5 v. Yankees | Top | 5-7 | Loss | -165 | 5 h 2 m | Show |
06-18-21 | Mercury v. Sparks UNDER 157.5 | Top | 80-66 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
06-18-21 | White Sox v. Astros +103 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 103 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
06-18-21 | 76ers -150 v. Hawks | Top | 104-99 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
06-18-21 | Mets v. Nationals -113 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
06-17-21 | Diamondbacks v. Giants -191 | Top | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 7 h 42 m | Show |
06-16-21 | Canadiens +1.5 v. Golden Knights | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 34 h 51 m | Show |
06-16-21 | Hawks v. 76ers OVER 223.5 | Top | 109-106 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
06-16-21 | Angels v. A's OVER 9 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 6 h 28 m | Show |
06-16-21 | Switzerland v. Italy -154 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
06-15-21 | Marlins v. Cardinals OVER 7.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
06-15-21 | Rangers v. Astros UNDER 8.5 | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -118 | 14 h 34 m | Show |
06-15-21 | Islanders v. Lightning -182 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 31 h 22 m | Show |
06-14-21 | Angels v. A's -159 | Top | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 13 h 18 m | Show |
06-13-21 | Suns v. Nuggets +3 | Top | 125-118 | Loss | -103 | 22 h 21 m | Show |
06-13-21 | Islanders v. Lightning UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 18 h 10 m | Show |
06-13-21 | Nets v. Bucks OVER 228 | Top | 96-107 | Loss | -103 | 18 h 41 m | Show |
06-13-21 | Yankees v. Phillies UNDER 8.5 | Top | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 15 h 57 m | Show |
06-12-21 | Padres v. Mets +1.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
06-12-21 | White Sox -162 v. Tigers | Top | 15-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
06-11-21 | Rangers v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 1-12 | Win | 100 | 15 h 23 m | Show |
06-11-21 | 76ers v. Hawks UNDER 224.5 | Top | 127-111 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 44 m | Show |
06-10-21 | Avalanche v. Golden Knights UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -113 | 14 h 8 m | Show |
06-10-21 | Nets v. Bucks -154 | Top | 83-86 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
06-09-21 | Nuggets v. Suns UNDER 222.5 | Top | 98-123 | Win | 100 | 24 h 2 m | Show |
06-09-21 | Bruins v. Islanders OVER 5 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
06-09-21 | Brewers v. Reds OVER 9.5 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
06-09-21 | Nationals v. Rays -156 | Top | 9-7 | Loss | -156 | 10 h 5 m | Show |