Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-05-21 | Yankees v. Red Sox UNDER 8 | Top | 2-6 | Push | 0 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
MLB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Boston at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. Most will be anticipating a high-scoring affair between these two homer-happy rivals at hitter-friendly Fenway Park on Tuesday night. I don't see it playing out that way, however. Tonight's starters Gerrit Cole and Nathan Eovaldi actually just matched up on September 24th. That game finished 8-3 in favor of New York. The stakes are obviously even higher now with this being a 'win or go home' Wild Card showdown and I expect a more tightly-contested affair. Cole struggled down the stretch but this will be the first time he's had the benefit of pitching on a full five days' rest since September 14th against Baltimore. He gave up just one earned run in five innings in that start. Likewise for Eovaldi. He, however, pitched well in his most recent start, tossing six shutout innings against the Orioles. He checks in sporting a 1.11 WHIP in 19 home starts this season. It will obviously be 'all hands on deck' when it comes to the two bullpens following yesterday's off-day. In fact, both teams have had three off days since September 23rd, setting them up well for Tuesday's all-important contest. Take the under (10*). |
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10-04-21 | Raiders v. Chargers OVER 51.5 | Top | 14-28 | Loss | -101 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
MNF Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Las Vegas and Los Angeles at 8:15 pm et on Monday. I get it. Both of these teams scored 30+ points last week and now clash in a division game on Monday Night Football, leading many to back the 'under' as the so-called 'sharp' play. I believe this one is being totaled as a potential shootout for good reason, however, and will stick with what's been working and play the 'over' on MNF. The Raiders are playing with house money at this point. Most expected they would be 1-2 or possibly 2-1 at best entering Week 4 but here they are sitting atop the AFC West with a flawless 3-0 record. I don't expect them to suddenly get tentative here. While their defense has held up better than most anticipated, I'm not all that high on that unit. Their offense on the other hand has impressed me and I believe they can find continued success, even in this tough road matchup on Monday. Note that opponents have gashed the Chargers defense in two particular areas this season, running the football and on tight end targets. Los Angeles checks in allowing well north of five yards per rush and I believe that sets up the Raiders underrated ground attack well in this one. It's been a bit of a 'plug-and-play' situation in the backfield for Las Vegas this season, with Peyton Barber being the most recent 'next man up'. Regardless who gets the lion's share of the carries on Monday night, I think the Raiders can gash the Chargers run defense. Meanwhile, Las Vegas obviously has one of the best in the business at tight end in Darren Waller. He's keeping opposing defensive coordinators up at night trying to come up with schemes to defend him. I mentioned I'm not all that high on the Raiders defense. I believe this is a spot where they could very well get flamed by an ascending Chargers offense. Los Angeles QB Justin Herbert is absolutely locked in right now, showing incredible chemistry with WR Mike Williams. Only six other teams have given up more catches to wide receivers than the Raiders and I expect to see the Chargers wideouts make the most of their opportunities in this one. Of course, the Las Vegas run defense hasn't been all that imposing in the early going, opening the door for a big night from Chargers do-it-all RB Austin Ekeler as well. It's a pick-your-poison type of matchup for the Raiders defense that appeared to wear down over the course of the game against an otherwise punchless Dolphins offense last Sunday. This game represents a big step up in class for the Raiders 'D' after going against Pittsburgh and Miami in consecutive weeks. A Monday night 'under' result is certainly coming but I don't think this is the spot. Take the over (10*). |
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10-03-21 | Steelers v. Packers UNDER 45 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 8 h 10 m | Show |
NFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and Green Bay at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. Sure, I'd like to (and expected to) be working with a higher posted total in this one, but I still believe there's considerable value in backing the 'under' with the Packers coming off consecutive 'over' results. The Steelers offense is arguably the most predictable in the entire league right now and there's really nowhere for them to turn for answers at this point. Big Ben's time as a useful starting quarterback in the NFL is over, and I don't believe that's a knee-jerk reaction at all. Injuries and general wear-and-tear have taken their toll over the years and his decision-making has certainly left a lot to be desired in recent years. Here, with WR Chase Claypool ruled out and JuJu Smith-Schuster and Diontae Johnson dealing with nagging injuries, we can expect RB Najee Harris to be the focal point of the offense as the Steelers try to effectively shorten this contest and play keep-away from Aaron Rodgers and the explosive Packers offense. On a positive note for Pittsburgh, it is expected to have T.J. Watt back from injury. Green Bay has scored 30 or more points in consecutive wins over the Lions and 49ers. As good as the Packers offense is, an extended run of 30+ point performances certainly isn't sustainable. Note that the 'under' is 28-12 with the Steelers playing on the road off a home loss with those games totaling an average of 38.8 points. Better still, the 'under' is 21-8 when Pittsburgh plays on the road off an outright loss as a home favorite with that spot producing an average of 38.4 total points. Also note that the Steelers have given up just 15.4 points per game the last 23 times they've come off a double-digit loss against a division opponent, as is the case here, with that situation resulting in an average total of 39.2 points. Take the under (10*). |
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10-03-21 | Seahawks +2.5 v. 49ers | Top | 28-21 | Win | 100 | 31 h 15 m | Show |
NFL First Half Game of the Year. My selection is on Seattle plus the points first half over San Francisco at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. We missed with the Seahawks last week in Minnesota as they got off to a strong start but couldn't hold off a desperate Vikings squad in an eventual lopsided loss. Here, I do expect Seattle to bounce back against the division-rival 49ers. However, I don't like the prospect of the Niners making a potential switch at quarterback in the second half should Jimmy G. continue to struggle under center. So instead we'll back the Seahawks in the first half in a situation that has worked out very well over the years. Note that Seattle has gone an impressive 44-26 ATS in the first half the last 70 times it has come off an upset loss as a favorite in its previous game, as is the case here, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 3.7 points in that situation. Better still, the Seahawks are 23-9 ATS in the first half when coming off an upset loss as a road favorite, outscoring opponents by 5.4 points on average in that situation. I'm not as down on the Seahawks defense as most heading into this one. Yes, Seattle got ripped by a desperate Vikings offense that gameplanned very aggressively in last week's contest. I expect a different story to unfold here as the Seahawks are now the 'desperate' team coming off consecutive losses. Seattle owns numerous matchup edges on offense in this one, most notably with their passing attack as DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett (even if he is less than 100% healthy) should feast on a 49ers secondary that is dealing with a cluster of injuries. Defensively, Seattle won't have to deal with a monster tandem like Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson at wide receiver this week. Meanwhile, the Niners once-vaunted ground attack has been depleted due to injuries as well with Trey Sermon not looking like the explosive runner they had hoped for in his rookie campaign. Take Seattle first half (10*). |
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10-03-21 | Texans v. Bills -17 | Top | 0-40 | Win | 100 | 48 h 5 m | Show |
AFC Non-Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Buffalo minus the points over Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'm not one bit afraid of the big number in this one. We've been along for the Bills ride the last couple of weeks, cashing with them in their rout of the Dolphins before hitting the 'over' in last week's blowout win over Washington. I fully expect them to make it three straight lopsided wins against the lowly and reeling Texans on Sunday. Houston was every bit as advertised (finally) last week against Carolina as awful play-calling combined with an inefficient rookie QB in Davis Mills combined to lead to an eventual blowout loss against the Panthers. This is a nightmarish matchup for the Texans on both sides of the football. While he's had a few extra days of preparation, I'm not sure that extra reps in practice are going to make a bit of difference for Mills as he has a subpar supporting cast. WR Brandin Cooks got off to a strong start this season but he'll likely be erased by standout Bills corner Tre'davious White in this one. Outside of Cooks there's little reason for optimism in the Houston offense. On the flip side, Bills QB Josh Allen silenced his critics in resounding fashion against Washington last Sunday and now draws an even more favorable matchup. Allen represents a considerable step up in class from the quarterbacks Houston has faced thus far - a slate that has included Trevor Lawrence (in his first NFL start - on the road no less), Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold. Allen figures to feast on an unimposing Texans defense with Bills offensive coordinator Brian Daboll likely to dial up another aggressive gameplan. We've still yet to see Bills WR Stefon Diggs truly explode this season but we've certainly seen glimpses in the last couple of weeks. I'm high on Diggs, but perhaps even higher on Buffalo's ancillary pass-catchers, including underrated TE Dawson Knox. What more can I say about this matchup, I expect the Bills to roll by three touchdowns plus. Take Buffalo (10*). |
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10-02-21 | Connecticut +15.5 v. Vanderbilt | Top | 28-30 | Win | 100 | 36 h 57 m | Show |
CFB Non-Conference Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Connecticut plus the points over Vanderbilt at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. This is absolutely a 'plug your nose and bet it' type of a play on Saturday night. I'm as surprised as you that I'm actually getting behind UConn after we successfully faded it in two out of three tries (the lone loss was a free play on the Huskies when they back-doored Army two weeks ago) already this season. I do like the progression I've seen from the Huskies, however, and certainly believe they can hang with another down-trodden program in Vanderbilt. As I mentioned, two weeks ago we saw UConn fall behind 42-0 before halftime at Army before outscoring the Black Knights 21-10 in the second half in an eventual back-door cover. The fact that the Huskies didn't quite in that game meant something and we saw some carry-over in last week's home game against a tough Wyoming squad as UConn jumped out to a 13-0 lead and ultimately hung tough for four quarters in a 24-22 loss. That was certainly an impressive performance on both sides of the football against a Cowboys squad that is a perfect 4-0 on the season. Now the Huskies get a stretch where they can potentially build some confidence, facing Vandy, UMass and Yale in consecutive weeks. Vandy does have a win to its credit this season but that came by just three points against an awful Colorado State squad. Since then, the Commodores have had their doors blown off in two games against Stanford and Georgia, outscored by a combined 103-23 margin. Note that they've scored just one touchdown in their last nine quarters of action, that coming in the final seconds of a game that was long decided against Stanford. The fact that Vandy somehow managed to give up 35 points in less than a quarter of action last week, even against a power program like Georgia, was telling. There are few redeeming qualities when it comes to either of these teams but I think we're seeing Vandy laying north of a touchdown simply due to the SEC vs. Independent angle. There's a chance that UConn can prove to be a 'tough out' over the remainder of the season and I'm willing to bet on that on Saturday. Take Connecticut (10*). |
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10-02-21 | Baylor +4 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 14-24 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 18 m | Show |
Big 12 Game of the Year. My selection is on Baylor plus the points over Oklahoma State at 7 pm et on Saturday. I'm starting to believe in Baylor. Two weeks ago we cashed with the Bears in their rout of lowly Kansas. While that was a game they were certainly expected to win, I liked the way they absolutely poured it on in the second half, scoring 31 unanswered points in a 45-7 rout. Last week, the Bears were involved in a game they weren't necessarily expected to win but gutted out a hard-fought 31-29 victory over then-14th ranked Iowa State. Now comes a very difficult test in Stillwater, noting that Oklahoma State rolled to a 42-3 victory when these two teams met last December. I think the Bears will be up for the challenge. While Oklahoma State deals with a number of key injuries on both sides of the football (defensive stars Tre Sterling and Trace Ford the most notable), Baylor enters this showdown relatively healthy. We've seen a number of players step up and take on big roles for the Bears this season. It starts with QB Gerry Bohanon, who was given the opportunity to start at the beginning of the season and has certainly made the most of it, seemingly getting better with each passing week. Bohanon has thrown for seven touchdowns while running for another four. He's yet to throw an interception but did fumble twice in last week's victory. Of course it helps to have a tremendous supporting cast. R.J. Sneed and Tyquan Thornton make up one of the top wide receiver tandems in the nations - an unappreciated tandem at that. Trestan Ebner was thought to be the 1-A back but he's actually taken a backseat to Abram Smith at times, who has three 118+ yard rushing performances with five touchdowns to his credit already this season. While the Bears are known for their explosive offense, it's their defense that impressed me most this season. This is a loaded unit that was expected to take a big step forward this season and it has. This is a manageable matchup given Oklahoma State has been held to 31 points or less in all four games this season and as I mentioned is missing a few key cogs due to injury on offense. We saw the Cowboys score three offensive touchdowns in the game's first 20 minutes last week against Kansas State but they were held to a single field goal the rest of the way. In fact, Oklahoma State hasn't scored a single second half point in its last two games. RB Jaylen Warren has been outstanding the last couple of weeks in particular but he's not better than Breece Hall, who the Bears dealt with against Iowa State last Saturday. Simply put, Baylor has the talent and depth up front and at the back-end to make life miserable for Cowboys QB Spencer Sanders on Saturday night. Provided the Bears don't get swallowed up by the sheer size and importance of this matchup, I believe they can hang for 60 minutes. Take Baylor (10*). |
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10-02-21 | Montreal v. Hamilton OVER 48.5 | Top | 23-20 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 42 m | Show |
CFL East Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Montreal and Hamilton at 4 pm et on Saturday. We've been playing mostly 'unders' when it comes to CFL totals lately, and rightfully so as the league has certainly taken a low-scoring turn this season. Here, I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the 'over', however, as the desperate Als roll into Hamilton on the heels of consecutive losses. Montreal showed some positive signs in last week's 30-27 loss to the Argos. QB Vernon Adams Jr. completed 30-of-39 passes for nearly 400 yards through the air while RB William Stanback went off for 133 yards on the ground. I get the feeling we may see somewhat of a letdown from the Ti-Cats vaunted defense here after they held up so well, shouldering much of the load with QBs Dane Evans and Jeremiah Masoli sidelined. Masoli is back, along with WRs Bralon Addison and Brandon Banks and I can't help but feel we'll see the Hamilton defense breathe a sigh of relief and that perhaps opens the door for the Als offense in this spot. On the flip side, the Als defense hasn't been particularly good this season, especially against the pass. Hamilton QB Jeremiah Masoli probably could have returned for the team's most recent game as he had been practicing in the days leading up to this one. Now he's had ample time to get ready for the Als with the Ti-Cats having not played in a week-and-a-half. The most recent matchup between these two teams fizzled in the second half. In what I expect to be a more competitive affair on Saturday, I look for this one to find its way 'over' the reasonable total. Take the over (10*). |
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10-01-21 | Iowa v. Maryland UNDER 46 | Top | 51-14 | Loss | -105 | 103 h 17 m | Show |
Big Ten Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Iowa and Maryland at 8 pm et on Friday. The 'under' is now a perfect 4-0 in games involving Iowa this season after last Saturday's closer than expected 24-14 win over Colorado State. The fact that the Hawkeyes trailed that game 14-7 at halftime may be concerning at first glance. However, a closer look shows that Iowa actually shut Colorado State out in the first, third and fourth quarters in that game. A 22-yard punt from the Hawkeyes deep in their own territory set up the Rams first touchdown drive - a drive they needed nine plays to turn into a touchdown despite starting from the Iowa 35-yard line. The Hawkeyes next offensive drive ended with an interception that the Rams returned all the way to the Iowa 23-yard line. Colorado State made good with a touchdown on that drive as well but that was it in terms of Rams scoring offense for the remainder of the game. You could argue that this will be Iowa's toughest test to date, although it did already go on the road and defeat rival Iowa State (which was ranked ninth in the country at the time) by a 27-17 score back on September 11th (we won with the 'under' in that game). That game reached 44 total points but did include a defensive fumble return for a touchdown. We've backed Maryland in each of the last two weeks, managing to split those plays thanks to last Saturday's rout of Kent State. The Terps offensive stats are somewhat skewed from playing FCS squad Howard (won 62-0) and Kent State and its 'FlashFast' offense that essentially served to give Maryland a number of extra possessions. While I do think the Terps can move the football against this tough Iowa defense, I'm not convinced they can end many drives with 7's on the board. Remember, back in Week 1 Maryland faced a tough home game against West Virginia and while it did put up 30 points, two touchdowns went for 60+ yards thanks to Mountaineers defensive breakdowns - something we're unlikely to see from the fundamentally-sound Hawkeyes defense here. On the flip side, the Terps can play some defense, noting that they've allowed just four touchdowns in their last 15 quarters of action, with one of those coming on a broken play offensive fumble return for a touchdown on the road against Illinois two weeks ago. Iowa has topped out at 34 points this season, and that performance came in a game in which they returned two interceptions for touchdowns against Indiana. Take the under (10*). |
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09-29-21 | Marlins v. Mets OVER 7.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
MLB F5 Innings Total of the Month. My selection is on the first five innings 'over' between Miami and New York at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a pair of relatively low-scoring seven-innings affairs between these two teams simply playing out the string yesterday. I expect a different story to unfold on Wednesday, at least early on. Elieser Hernandez gets another start for the Marlins. He was tagged for three home runs in his most recent start and a pair of home runs the last time he faced the Mets. I suspect we'll see him nibbling the edges a little too much in this one and perhaps struggle to avoid walks, which have plagued him recently (seven walks in his last two starts spanning just 9 2/3 innings). Hernandez checks in with a 1.81 WHIP over his last three outings. Taijuan Walker will take the ball for New York. The wheels have come off for him down the stretch. He checks in having allowed 19 earned runs over his last four starts, covering a stretch of 17 1/3 innings. Like Hernandez, Walker has had a tough time keeping the ball in the park, allowing a whopping eight home runs over his last four outings and at least one home run in 10 of his last 11 starts. We'll play the first five innings only here, noting that the Mets bullpen in particular has been terrific lately, entering yesterday's double-header sporting a collective 2.96 ERA and 1.17 WHIP over their last seven games. Take the first five innings over (10*). |
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09-28-21 | Marlins +1.5 v. Mets | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -160 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
N.L. Run-Line Game of the Month. My selection is on Miami +1.5 runs over New York at 4:10 pm et on Tuesday. Both of these teams are simply playing out the string at this point and both are playing poorly with each entering riding five-game losing streaks. Something obviously has to give in this one. I'll grab the insurance run with the Marlins as the spot sets up well for them in the front half of this seven-inning double-header. Note that Miami has gone an impressive 17-7 after scoring three runs or less in three consecutive games this season, as is the case here, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 2.0 runs in that spot. While the Marlins sit a whopping 27 games under .500 on the season, they've actually gone 32-31 after losing four or five of their last six games, outscoring opponents by 0.5 runs on average in that situation. As for the Mets, they're a woeful 1-9 when playing with double-revenge against an opponent having scored two runs or less in those losses, outscored by an average margin of 2.4 runs in that spot. Marcus Stroman will get the start for New York. Note that he owns a 2-7 team record the last nine times he's pitched as a home favorite priced between -150 and -200, as is the case here, with his teams outscored by 2.8 runs on average in that spot. Trevor Rogers will counter for Miami. He has posted a 2.60 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 13 road starts this season. While the Marlins are just 4-10 in his last 14 starts overall, they've gone 8-6 when factoring in the +1.5 run-line. Miami has won all three of Rogers' previous starts against the Mets, despite the fact that he was matched up against New York ace Jacob DeGrom twice. Stroman has faced the Marlins three times this season and the Mets failed to deliver a win by more than a single run in any of those contests. Take Miami +1.5 runs. |
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09-27-21 | Eagles v. Cowboys OVER 51.5 | Top | 21-41 | Win | 101 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
MNF Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and Dallas at 8:15 pm et on Monday. I fully expected this total to rise over the course of the week but that hasn't been the case. In fact, we've seen the opposite play out. Perhaps that has something to do with the fact that both teams are coming off low-scoring results in Week 2. Regardless the reason, we'll take advantage and back the 'over' on Monday night. This is a 'revenge game' of sorts for Eagles dual-threat QB Jalen Hurts. He led Philadelphia on touchdowns on each of the first two drives in his lone start against Dallas last December, and continued to march the offense up and down the field for the remainder of the game but ultimately couldn't find the end zone again in an eventual 37-17 loss. Hurts threw for 342 yards in that game and also led the team in rushing but fumbled twice and tossed an interception that proved to be the team's downfall. That loss dashed the Eagles slim playoff hopes and you can be sure Hurts hasn't forgot about it. I do like the fact that he's catching the Cowboys early in the season here (Eagles head coach at the time Doug Pederson noted that Hurts was banged-up heading into that late-December meeting with the Cowboys), not to mention he'll be facing a depleted Dallas defense that is missing three of its top four edge rushers - a critical defensive position given Hurts mobility. Dallas isn't just dealing with defensive injuries, it has also taken a hit at the wide receiver position with Michael Gallup sidelined and Amari Cooper dealing with cracked ribs. All indications are that Cooper will play and I'm willing to bet on offensive coordinator Kellen Moore's ability to come up with a gameplan to take advantage of an Eagles defense that has been vulnerable against the pass in recent years and will also be missing key cogs both up front and at the back-end (notably DE Brandon Graham and S Rodney McLeod) in this one. The emergence of RB Tony Pollard adds another wrinkle to an already dynamic Cowboys offense that might even have a little more juice than usual with QB Dak Prescott returning to the field where he suffered a devastating season-ending injury in Week 5 last year. Note that the 'over' has gone 10-2 with the Cowboys playing at home against NFC opponents over the last three seasons with those games averaging a total of 60.0 points. Take the over (10*). |
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09-26-21 | Dolphins +4 v. Raiders | Top | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 18 h 8 m | Show |
AFC Game of the Month. My selection is on Miami plus the points over Las Vegas at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. I don't believe for a second that the Raiders are a true contender in the AFC West this season. Yes, they're off to a 2-0 start. However, they just as easily could have started with a loss against the Ravens were it not for some poor execution from Baltimore late in that Monday nighter. Then they took advantage of a Steelers squad that was 'fat and happy' off a season-opening upset win in Buffalo, and continues to employ an aging, noodle-armed starting QB in Ben Roethlisberger. Here, I believe the Raiders face their toughest test to date with a late window home game against the Dolphins, who will certainly be in a foul mood following last week's 35-0 drubbing at the hands of the Bills. While Miami will be without starting QB Tua Tagovailoa, I don't believe there's a big drop-off from him to backup Jacoby Brissett. Brissett has proven to be a capable starting QB during his days in Indianapolis and I expect him to find some success in a 'game manager' role against the Raiders here. This one really comes down to the Dolphins defense, and I'm confident they can outplay a very average Raiders offense on Sunday afternoon. Las Vegas' offensive line is banged-up. Derek Carr is dealing with an ankle injury. The Raiders defense has lost a pair of safeties along with DT Gerald McCoy. Note that the Raiders are 2-11 ATS the last 13 times they've come off consecutive games in which they gained 300 or more yards through the air. They're also 28-46 ATS when coming off consecutive wins ATS, outscored by an average margin of 3.3 points in that spot. Look for the Fins to at the very least take the Raiders down to the wire in this one. Take Miami (10*). |
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09-26-21 | Washington Football Team v. Bills OVER 45.5 | Top | 21-43 | Win | 100 | 47 h 48 m | Show |
NFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Buffalo at 1 pm et on Sunday. Despite the fact that this game has the highest shootout potential of any of the Bills first three games this season (they previously faced two plodding offenses in the Steelers and Dolphins) this is the lowest total we've seen. I believe it will prove too low on Sunday afternoon in Orchard Park. The Washington Football Team entered the season with plenty of optimism and dare I say hype, largely due to their potentially fierce defense. Well, that defense has been anything but fierce through two weeks, carved up to the tune of 53 pass completions for well over 550 yards. Now they head to Buffalo to take on a Josh Allen-led Bills offense that has yet to play its best game of the season but will continue to employ an aggressive attack under mastermind coodinator Brian Daboll. Interestingly, Buffalo's ground attack has been just fine, gaining 260 yards on 55 rush attempts. Once the passing attack gets back up to speed, look out. I'm willing to bet on that happening in this matchup. On the flip side, while Buffalo's defensive numbers through two games are solid, it's had everything to do with the opposition it has faced, Pittsburgh with an aging and noodle-armed QB in Ben Roethlisberger and Miami which was forced to turn to journeyman backup QB Jacoby Brissett after Tua Tagovailoa exited early with an injury. Washington QB Taylor Heinicke has already proven to have a gunslinger mentality and enters this game having thrown for 901 yards, five touchdowns and two interceptions while also running for 91 yards and a score in four previous appearances since the start of last season. Likely playing in comeback mode for most of the afternoon on Sunday, I expect Heinicke to once again pad his stats and further build on his connection with standout WR Terry McLaurin. Take the over (10*). |
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09-25-21 | Kentucky v. South Carolina UNDER 48.5 | Top | 16-10 | Win | 100 | 80 h 46 m | Show |
SEC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Kentucky and South Carolina at 7 pm et on Saturday. We've won countless plays on the 'under' in games involving the Kentucky Wildcats over the years. However, so far in 2021 we've seen Kentucky post a perfect 3-0 o/u record. I expect that to change on Saturday as the Wildcats hit the road for the first time this season, going up against a South Carolina Gamecocks squad that is licking its wounds after a 40-13 drubbing at the hands of Georgia last week. A couple of transfers have given the Kentucky offense a big boost so far this season, QB Will Levis and WR Wan'Dale Robinson. Let's keep things in perspective though. While the Wildcats have put up a whopping 108 points in three games - all victories - they've done so against the likes of Louisiana-Monroe, Missouri and Chattanooga, not exactly a who's who of elite defensive teams. Also keep in mind, last week against FCS squad Chattanooga, the Wildcats scored just three offensive touchdowns, with two of those coming in the game's first 29 minutes. From there, Kentucky found the end zone just once with that touchdown coming nearly five minutes into the fourth quarter. The only opponent that has had any considerable success against the Kentucky defense this season was Missouri and that was because it bombed away - 52 pass attempts to be exact, yet still managed under 300 yards through the air. South Carolina isn't built that way with QBs Zeb Noland and Luke Doty both struggling. Both of these teams might be well-suited to scaling back the offense a bit here given the Wildcats have turned the football over eight times while the Gamecocks have coughed it up seven times. Both defenses have the ability to get into the backfield which makes it more difficult for the quarterbacks, all more or less pocket-passers, to have time to get the football more than 10-15 yards down the field. Two weeks ago South Carolina traveled to East Carolina and didn't score an offensive touchdown until the final minute of the third quarter. That was the Gamecocks only offensive TD of the entire game in a narrow 20-17 victory. In fact, in their last 10 quarters of football they've managed to score just three offensive touchdowns. The last time these two teams met on this field they combined to score just 31 points back in 2019. We're obviously talking about two different teams now, but I'm expecting another relatively low-scoring affair. Take the under (10*). |
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09-25-21 | Ohio +14.5 v. Northwestern | Top | 6-35 | Loss | -107 | 49 h 41 m | Show |
CFB Non-Conference Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on Ohio plus the points over Northwestern at 12 noon et on Saturday. We successfully faded the Ohio Bobcats in their rout at the hands of Louisiana-Lafayette last Thursday night. Here, I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the Bobcats as they stay on the road to face Northwestern on Saturday. Consider Ohio's loss last week 'rock-bottom'. While it's been an awful 0-3 start to the season and the post-Frank Solich era, all is not lost. Everything is actually still in front of the Bobcats with a full MAC schedule set to begin next week. While the Week 2 loss to FCS squad Duquesne was ugly, the fact is Ohio wasn't really expected to win either of its other two games. With a strong performance on Saturday, the Bobcats can at the very least feel good about themselves entering the onset of conference play. Perhaps the best news for Ohio is that standout WR Isiah Cox is expected to make his season debut after missing the first three games due to disciplinary issues. I don't believe his absence sat well with the rest of the team, the offense in particular as they struggled to move the football through the first three weeks of the season. Cox immediately makes the offense more explosive, keeping in mind, the Bobcats already boast a tremendous 1-2 punch at the running back position in De'mondre Tuggle and O'Shaan Allison. Defensively, the Bobcats are better than they've shown and here should benefit from having an couple of extra days of practice following last week's dubbing at the hands of a terrific Ragin' Cajuns offense. While they're stepping up in class on paper against a Big Ten opponent here, Northwestern certainly has its issues, on both sides of the football. The Wildcats head into this game sporting a 1-2 record with its lone victory coming against FCS squad Indiana State. In losses to Michigan State and Duke, the Wildcats were marched up and down the field on at will. On offense, the Wildcats have been going with a three-man rotation at quarterback, which only indicates one thing, they're not all that confident in any of the three. The reality is, the Wildcats season began circling the drain before it even got started when RB Cam Porter went down to a season-ending injury in August. Without a dominant ground attack, the Wildcats lack the ability to effectively shorten games, something Ohio will be looking to do here on Saturday. While most teams boast a ton of returning talent following a strange 2020 Covid-tinged season, Northwestern is one of the least experienced teams in the country. This one has the potential to be much closer than most are expecting. Take Ohio (10*). |
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09-25-21 | Texas Tech v. Texas UNDER 61.5 | Top | 35-70 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 17 m | Show |
Big 12 Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Texas Tech and Texas at 12 noon et on Saturday. We saw a wild, high-scoring (that's an understatement) shootout between these in-state rivals last season as Texas prevailed by a 63-56 score almost a year ago to the day. I'm expecting a different story to unfold this time around, however. Texas Tech routed Florida International by a 54-21 score last week. It's worth noting that the Red Raiders were forced to punt on each of their first two drives in that game and actually trailed 7-0 before a pick-six with less than four minutes remaining in the first quarter. It wasn't until nearly three minutes into the second quarter that they scored their first offensive touchdown of the game. From there, FIU fell apart, as is often the case for big non-conference underdogs, and Texas Tech padded its offensive stats. Keep in mind, prior to that game, the Red Raiders had scored just 66 points combined in their first two games this season. That's nothing to sneeze at, but I'm not entirely convinced this is an elite offensive football team. The key here is that Texas got the perfect tune-up in a shutout performance against Rice last week. This is an experienced Longhorns defense, particularly in the secondary which is obviously an area that is of critical importance against the Red Raiders. Note that Texas enters the week ranked 87th in the country in pass yards allowed per game this season. Most will point to the Longhorns ugly 40-21 loss against Arkansas. Texas actually allowed just one touchdown in the first 36 minutes of that game. It was only when they were forced to play from behind 13-0 in the second half that they abandoned the run and their offense couldn't stay on the field, allowing the Hogs to run it up. Texas Tech is obviously known for its offense, but it has held up well defensively so far this season, and obviously won't have to deal with QB Sam Ehlinger for the Longhorns this time around. The Red Raiders already faced a tough road test against Houston (2-1) back in Week 1 on the fast track at NRG Stadium. They got off to a rough start in that game, allowing two first quarter touchdowns, but from there they gave up just one score the rest of the way, pitching a shutout in the second half. That was against a Cougars squad that proceeded to put up 89 points on over 800 yards of total offense over the next two games. Note that Texas Tech returns 11 of its top 13 tacklers from last season and checks in as one of the healthiest teams in the nation entering Week 4. The Red Raiders boast plenty of size and talent up front to help contain the Longhorns ground attack, while the secondary boasts a trio of 'super seniors' as a result of the unique Covid rules regarding player eligibility. Take the under (10*). |
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09-24-21 | Wake Forest v. Virginia UNDER 67 | Top | 37-17 | Win | 100 | 83 h 36 m | Show |
ACC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Wake Forest and Virginia at 7 pm et on Friday. We're dealing with a very high total in this game, perhaps rightfully so given Virginia is coming off a wild game that featured a whopping 98 points against North Carolina last Saturday night. Let's keep that result in perspective, however. Wake Forest is not North Carolina. The Tar Heels have been in a foul mood ever since opening the season with a stunningly-poor offensive showing in a loss to Virginia Tech - and they have the talent to back it up led by future NFL quarterback Sam Howell. While Wake Forest has scored 42, 41 and 35 points in starting the season 3-0, the first two games came against the likes of Old Dominion and FCS squad Norfolk State and last week's 35-point performance against Florida State was aided by a number of Seminoles miscues. The Demon Deacons orchestrated four touchdown drives against the 'Noles but two of those were kept alive by FSU penalties. I've been encouraged by the Wake Forest defense through three games, noting that in their first two contests they allowed just three touchdowns, with two of those coming when those games were long decided late in the fourth quarter. They gave up two first half scores against Florida State last week but then shut the 'Noles out over the game's final 33 minutes. Virginia has lit up the scoreboard through three games but again, the level of competition is worth noting as its first two games were against FCS squad William & Mary and a rebuilding Illinois team. After falling by a 59-39 score last Saturday in Chapel Hill, I'm not sure the Cavaliers are all that interested in another track meet here. They've done a nice job of controlling proceedings defensively in their two home games this season, allowing just two touchdowns with both of those coming in a game that wasn't competitive against Illinois (we won with Virginia in that contest). Here, they should benefit from facing a Demon Deacons offense that has been a little more one-dimensional this season with QB Sam Hartman shouldering much of the load. RB Christian Beal-Smith is a capable back, but not really a home run hitter out of the backfield like we've seen in recent years from the Deacs'. This matchup produced 63 total points last year as Wake Forest rolled to a 43-20 victory. I look for both offenses to find success moving the football in this one but with enough of those drives stalling, or resulting in 3's rather than 7's to help keep the final score 'under' the lofty total. Take the under (10*). |
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09-22-21 | Mariners v. A's OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
MLB Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and Oakland at 9:40 pm et on Wednesday. We've seen consecutive relatively low-scoring affairs to open this series. In fact, you would have to go back to September 15th to find the last time either of these teams posted an 'over' result. Look for that to change on Wednesday. The 'over' is a perfect 8-0 when the Mariners play on the road after winning three or more games in a row over the last two seasons with that spot producing an average total of 13.2 runs. Meanwhile, the 'over' is also a perfect 8-0 when the A's come off consecutive losses at home against division opponents this season, good for an average total of 12.1 runs. The A's average 5.6 runs per game when coming off four straight games scoring four runs or less over the last two seasons, as is the case here. Neither starter is likely to fool the opposition here given the A's have seen Chris Flexen three times this season while the Mariners have also seen Cole Irvin three times here in 2021. Irvin in particular has struggled, allowing a whopping 22 hits in just 11 2/3 innings. Flexen has seemingly hit the wall lately, topping out at four strikeouts over his last four outings, allowing 24 hits and 11 earned runs in 22 1/3 innings. Additionally, the Mariners bullpen has posted a collective 6.37 ERA and 1.63 WHIP over the last seven games. Take the over (10*). |
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09-21-21 | Twins v. Cubs OVER 8 | Top | 9-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Chicago at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Twins have seen their last two games stay 'under' the total but now head to Chicago to face a Cubs squad that has posted five consecutive 'over' results. I'm anticipating a relatively high-scoring affair at Wrigley Field on Tuesday. Note that the 'over' has gone 10-2 when the Twins play on the road after scoring three runs or less in consecutive games this season with that situation producing an average total of 12.9 runs. The 'over' is also 12-4 with the Twins on the road after losing a tight game by two runs or less this season with that spot producing an average total of 10.7 runs. Finally, we've seen the 'over' cash at a 14-3 clip with Minnesota on the road revenging a loss in which it scored one run or less over the last three seasons, as is the case here, good for an average total of 12.0 runs. As for the Cubs, it's been a case of addition by subtraction during the second half of the season as they've posted a 38-28 o/u record, averaging 4.5 runs per game with an average total of 10.7 runs. Neither of tonight's starters instill much confidence. Griffin Jax got off to a positive start to his rookie season with the Twins but has hit the wall since, allowing 26 earned runs over his last five outings, covering a span of 25 innings. He's allowed at least one home run in all but one of his 11 starts this season and checks in sporting a 6.91 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in six road starts. Alec Mills has solid overall numbers for the Cubs this season but averages just a shade over five innings per start and that's a concern as the Chicago bullpen has posted a collective 6.39 ERA and 1.65 WHIP over their last seven games. Take the over (10*). |
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09-20-21 | Lions v. Packers OVER 48.5 | Top | 17-35 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
NFC North Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Detroit and Green Bay at 8:15 pm et on Monday. The Packers return home in a smash spot off last week's dismantling at the hands of the Saints. Green Bay's performance last week was as bad as it gets, particularly on the offensive side of the football. This is the perfect bounce back spot, however, as the Packers play their home-opener in primetime against a Lions defense that has the potential to be very bad this year. Detroit got throttled 41-33 by the 49ers in a game that wasn't nearly as close as the final score indicated last Sunday (we got back-doored with the Niners in that game). What did we learn from that game? The Lions defense is by no means ready for primetime and now has to make do without arguably its best player in CB Jeff Okudah. Question his motivation and general interest in football at this point all you want, but Packers QB Aaron Rodgers should absolutely roast the Lions defense on Monday night. All of Green Bay's key skill position players on offense are poised for monster performances off last week's complete no-show. As WR DaVante Adams put it, last week's result was easy to toss in the trash. Forget it and move on. The real question is whether the Lions can do enough offensively to lift the final score 'over' the total. I believe they can. I think there's a false narrative out there that the Lions are going to be a 'ground and pound' offense with Dan Campbell at the helm. We saw in last week's game that Campbell won't hesitate to abandon the run should things go sideways and perhaps in watching Jared Goff carve up a capable 49ers defense in the fourth quarter he learned something about his offense. While the Lions have two capable running backs in DeAndre Swift and former Packer Jamaal Williams, I don't think they'll bang their heads against the wall running the football all night on Monday. Detroit knows it doesn't have the defense to turn this game into a slugfest. Instead, I look for the Lions to once again open things up on offense, leaning heavily on the likes of Swift (in the passing game) and TE T.J. Hockenson, who proved very useful against the Packers in two meetings last year, catching 10 passes for over 100 yards and a touchdown. Last season we saw totals of 77. 63, 50, 66, 55 and 51 points when the Packers faced NFC North opponents. Also note that Green Bay averages over 35 points per game when coming off a game in which it allowed 30+ points over the last three seasons, with that situation producing an average total of 55.3 points. Off a loss of any kind of the last three seasons, the Packers next game has averaged a total of 52.4 points scored. It takes a lot for an NFL game to stay 'under' the total these days - in fact, we've yet to see a primetime game go 'under' this season ('over' is a perfect 5-0). While an 'under' result is certainly coming, I don't think it happens here. Take the over (10*). |
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09-20-21 | Pirates v. Reds OVER 9 | Top | 5-9 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
N.L. Central Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Pittsburgh and Cincinnati at 6:40 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams are coming off a loss on Sunday, with both managing to score exactly five runs in those losing efforts. The last time we saw the Pirates and Reds match up they combined to score just one run as the Reds salvaged the final game of their series in Pittsburgh last week. I expect a different story to unfold on Monday, however. Note that the 'over' has gone 7-1 in the Pirates last eight games. That's nothing new as the 'over' is 57-37 when they play on the road in the second half of the season over the last three seasons with those games totaling an average of 9.8 runs. Also consider that the 'over' is 38-19 when the Buccos revenge a one-run loss against an opponent over that same span, resulting in an average total of 9.9 runs. Meanwhile, the Reds have posted a 41-31 o/u record at home this season (excluding pushes), good for an average total of 10.6 runs. It gets better though as the 'over' is 23-9 when Cincinnati plays at home off a loss this season, as is the case here, with that spot producing an average total of 12.1 runs. Pirates starter Dillon Peters has pitched relatively well this season but we're talking about a very small sample size of just 23 1/3 innings. Here, the Reds will be seeing him for the second time in a week. Note that the Cardinals saw him twice in a six-day span back in August. After managing just one run on three hits over five innings the first time they saw him, they doubled their hit total (6) and plated three runs, also over five innings, the next time they matched up. The Reds didn't score a single run off of Peters over five innings last week but I expect better production as they see him for a second time, especially given they're back at home. Reds starter Vladimir Gutierrez has seemingly hit the rookie wall here in September. He's now eclipsed 100 innings pitched on the season and has certainly struggled lately, allowing 13 earned runs in 15 innings over his last four starts. He recorded two strikeouts or less in three of those four outings. Both bullpens have held up well lately, but it's worth noting that the Pittsburgh 'pen has recorded a collective 4.91 ERA and 1.36 WHIP with only six saves converted and nine blown in division games this season. The Reds 'pen has posted a collective 5.66 ERA and 1.40 WHIP at home. Take the over (10*). |
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09-19-21 | Texans v. Browns -12.5 | Top | 21-31 | Loss | -106 | 75 h 47 m | Show |
My selection is on Cleveland minus the points over Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday. The fact that the Texans not only beat the Jaguars but completely annihilated them while the Browns gave up 30+ points in a blown opportunity on the road against the Chiefs is helping keep this line under a touchdown on Sunday afternoon. I don't think the oddsmakers can set the line high enough. Let's keep Houston's Week 1 blowout win in perspective. The Texans jumped ahead early in that game and the questionably-coached Jags essentially threw their offensive gameplan out the window. It's not as if the Houston defense was dominant - in fact, it recorded just one sack and four QB hurries against rookie Trevor Lawrence, who was making his first NFL start and was bombing away playing from behind all afternoon long. Offensively, the Texans torched what we knew would be a bad Jags defense - we saw it throughout the preseason and it carried over into Week 1. Here, Houston will be up against an elite Browns defense. Forget the fact that Cleveland gave up 30+ points against the Chiefs - that was obviously an extremely difficult matchup. Here, we can expect the Browns 'D' to take its frustrations out on a Texans offense that boasts below-average talent at all of the skill positions. However, it's actually the Houston defense that I'm most concerned about in this one. We've seen the Browns evolve into a more aggressive offense compared to the early stages of last season. I mentioned the lack of pressure the Texans were able to put on Trevor Lawrence last week, with that in mind, Cleveland QB Baker Mayfield should absolutely feast on Sunday while the backfield tandem of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt takes care of the rest. The Browns run away and hide in this one. Take Cleveland (9*). |
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09-19-21 | Bills -3 v. Dolphins | Top | 35-0 | Win | 100 | 75 h 31 m | Show |
AFC East Game of the Year. My selection is on Buffalo minus the points over Miami at 1 pm et on Sunday. I have a lot of faith in the Bills coaching staff to come up with the right gameplan and for the players to execute that gameplan as they look to avoid an 0-2 start in Miami this Sunday. Let's face it; Buffalo got out-coached and out-gameplanned in its opener against Pittsburgh. The Bills came out expecting the Steelers to play a certain way - particularly on defense where they're known for their blitz-happy nature - and instead they got thrown a screwball and ultimately were unable to prevail in a surprisingly low-scoring affair. While this doesn't look like an ideal bounce-back matchup on paper - certainly not after the Dolphins 'upset' the Patriots in Foxboro last week - I think it's actually an ideal rebound spot for Buffalo. Bills QB Josh Allen is coming off a terrible performance against the Steelers last week - but again, that had more to do with Pittsburgh's improbable scheme than anything else. Here, Allen will be facing perhaps his favorite opponent in the Miami Dolphins. He's faced the Fins four times in the last two seasons, flaming them for nearly 1,000 passing yards (good for over nine yards per pass attempt), 12 touchdowns and just one interception. That's not to mention the fact he's run all over them for over 100 rushing yards and a score on just 17 attempts. Miami executed its own gameplan flawlessly against the Patriots last week. The problem is, this is an offense (and team) that's built for playing with a lead. Should they fall behind in this one, I don't have a lot of trust in QB Tua Tagovailoa or an average ground attack to lead them back, or even sneak in the backdoor. IT seems to me that a lot of bettors are backing the Dolphins thinking they're getting a 'gift' catching a field goal at home. I expect the Bills to put the Fins back in their place. Take Buffalo (10*). |
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09-19-21 | Bengals v. Bears -1 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 16 h 33 m | Show |
NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Chicago minus the points over Cincinnati at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Bears couldn't have looked much worse in last Sunday night's blowout loss against the Rams in Los Angeles. That was a brutal spot for the Bears and we took advantage, fading them in the first half. Highly-touted rookie QB Justin Fields' time is coming and perhaps sooner rather than later after he saw the field for a number of plays in last week's game. I do expect him to play a factor in this contest as the Bears look to give their home faithful some hope for the future. The Bengals were a popular fade last week but got some favorable bounces and ultimately prevailed over the Vikings in overtime. I don't believe they'll be so fortunate this week, however. Cincinnati still boasts a subpar defense, not the type of unit we trust to back in a hostile environment on the road. Note that the Bengals won only one road game all of last year, that coming against the hapless Texans in Week 16 (they did pick up a tie in Philadelphia in Week 3. The Bears didn't lose their second game last season until Week 7. Anything other than a victory on Sunday could only be seen as a massive disappointment in Chicago. There are so many areas the Bears can improve on off last week's awful performance - sometimes it's actually easier for a team to rally off a season-opening loss than it is to follow a win. Take Chicago (10*). |
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09-18-21 | Phillies v. Mets OVER 7.5 | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
MLB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and New York at 7:15 pm et on Saturday. We saw a relatively low-scoring game between these two teams last night as the Phillies prevailed by a 4-3 score. Here, I'm expecting more in the way of offense as Philadelphia sends Aaron Nola to the hill against Carlos Carrasco. Note that the 'over' has gone 9-1 with the Phillies playing on the road off three or more consecutive wins this season, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 12.5 runs. Nola averages around 5 2/3 innings per start this season but has lasted less than six innings in seven of his last eight trips to the hill. Meanwhile, Carrasco averages just over four innings per start at home. That's worth considering as both bullpens have been struggling with the Phillies 'pen checking in with a 7.44 ERA and 1.65 WHIP and the Mets relief corps recording a 7.07 ERA and 1.68 WHIP over their last seven games respectively. Take the over (10*). |
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09-18-21 | Baylor -17.5 v. Kansas | Top | 45-7 | Win | 100 | 31 h 39 m | Show |
CFB Big 12 Game of the Month. My selection is on Baylor minus the points over Kansas at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. One of our biggest plays last week was a fade of Kansas and it worked out perfectly as the Jayhawks were routed in a Friday night road game against Coastal Carolina. Things won't get any easier for Kansas here as it returns home to the site of an inexplicable field-storming from the fans following an ugly 17-14 win over FCS squad South Dakota two weeks ago, hosting the Baylor Bears on Saturday afternoon. Baylor has yet to earn much national attention but with another strong performance here, and perhaps next week at home against Iowa State, it will. The Bears are loaded on both sides of the football. Quarterback was a question mark heading into the season but I like what I've seen from Gerry Bohanon. He hasn't been asked to do too much but has settled in nicely as a game manager, completing 32-of-47 passes for just shy of 400 yards, three touchdowns and most importantly, no interceptions. The Bears offense is all about the ground game and the do of Abram Smith and Trestan Ebner has been electric with both rushing for 100+ yards in each of their first two games this season. Kansas lacks the bulk or talent up front to slow Baylor's dominant rushing attack. On the flip side, the Jayhawks offense has not surprisingly struggled. Dual-threat QB Jake Bean had a couple of nice plays against Coastal Carolina last week but both were with his legs. He's not much of a threat passing the ball and behind a leaky offensive line, he's been running for his life for much of the first two games - sacked six times already. The Bears defense has the experience and talent - strong from the secondary in - to make life miserable on Bean and his rag-tag supporting cast. With a ball-hawking secondary, I don't expect Baylor to leave the back door open in this one. Take Baylor (10*). |
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09-18-21 | Cincinnati v. Indiana UNDER 50 | Top | 38-24 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 17 m | Show |
CFB First Half Total of the Year. My selection is on the first half 'under' between Cincinnati and Indiana at 12 noon et on Saturday. Both of these teams are coming off blowout victories over FCS squads last week with Cincinnati putting up 42 points in a rout of Murray State and Indiana scoring a whopping 56 points in a dismantling of Idaho. Here, I'm expecting a much more tempered offensive start given there's so much on the line for both teams. Cincinnati entered the season with CFP aspirations and it's all still in front of it off to a perfect 2-0 start, albeit against inferior competition. Meanwhile, Indiana opened with a blowout road loss against Iowa and needs to make a statement here as its only other non-conference matchup comes against Western Kentucky next week. This will obviously be Cincinnati's first time playing in front of a packed house on the road in quite some time. I fully expect the focus early on to be on taking care of the football and perhaps sucking some of the life out of what is sure to be a raucous Memorial Stadium. The Bearcats have the offense to do that with NFL QB prospect Desmond Ridder and Alabama transfer RB Jerome Ford, not to mention a wealth of talent at the wide receiver and tight end positions. They will be facing their toughest test of the season, however, as Indiana has built a very capable defense and one that is expected to get back one of its key cogs, CB Jaylin Williams from injury. While the Hoosiers did allow 34 points in their opener against Iowa, the defense wasn't to blame as the Hawkeyes had two pick-sixes in the first half. There was an early defensive breakdown on a long touchdown run early on but form there, the Hoosiers allowed just one more touchdown the rest of the game and that only came thanks to the Hawkeyes being given a short field and proceeding to (barely) convert a fourth down early in the second quarter. On the flip side, the question remains whether Hoosiers QB Michael Penix Jr. is healthy after last year's devastating season-ending injury. Even in last week's 56-14 rout, Penix completed just 11-of-16 passes for 68 yards (he did throw two touchdowns). He ran for a touchdown as well but actually lost 13 yards on four rush attempts in the game. Indiana will be facing an extremely difficult challenge in this one as the Bearcats defense is absolutely loaded and I believe job number one will be taking care of the football after that disastrous affair in Iowa two weeks ago. Expect a heavy dose of the Hoosiers ground game early on as they look to play keep away and control proceedings from the jump. Take the first half under (10*). |
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09-17-21 | Maryland -7.5 v. Illinois | Top | 20-17 | Loss | -109 | 38 h 51 m | Show |
CFB Big Ten Game of the Year. My selection is on Maryland minus the points over Illinois at 9 pm et on Friday. We successfully faded Illinois last week in its lopsided loss on the road against Virginia. While it has the benefit of returning home for a primetime game this week, and the opportunity to move to 2-0 in Big Ten play, I look for it to fall short once again. For Maryland, this will be its first conference game of the season after opening with wins over West Virginia and FCS squad Howard. The Terps couldn't have looked much more impressive in those two victories and I really liked what I saw from them in what was admittedly a layup against Howard last week. The Terps poured it on from the opening kick in that one, cruising to a 62-0 rout - a perfect tune-up before playing on a short week here in Champaign. As I noted in last week's analysis of my play against Illinois, it's going to take some time for new head coach Bret Bielema to turn around the program. Most of the key pieces are holdovers from a truly awful Lovie Smith era of Illini football. While Illinois is expected to get QB Brandon Peters back on the field this week, it will still be without RB Mike Epstein. This is a tough matchup against a Terps defense that is loaded in the secondary after going with a bit of a youth movement a year ago. Maryland recorded just two interceptions in five games last season but has already picked off three passes in just two games this year. Offensively, the Terps are rolling and figure to shred a weak Illini defense that just couldn't come up with any key stops against an average Virginia offense last Saturday. Illinois allowed Virginia to score touchdowns on each of its first two drives and the Cavs would have made it three straight scoring drives to open the game were it not for a missed field goal. After scoring a touchdown to close the gap on their first drive of the second half, the Illini defense gave it right back up, and then some, allowing Virginia to march down the field on two consecutive touchdown drives to put the game out of reach. The strength of the Illinois defense is up front but that doesn't bode all that well against a rejuvenated Terps offense that has shown the ability to blow the top off of opposing secondaries, with QB Taulia Tagovailoa throwing for well over 600 yards, six touchdowns and no interceptions through two games. Take Maryland (10*). |
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09-17-21 | Calgary v. Hamilton OVER 43.5 | Top | 17-23 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
CFL Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Calgary and Hamilton at 7 pm et on Friday. The Ti-Cats are obviously in a tough spot here as they go with third-string QB David Watford with both Dane Evans and Jeremiah Masoli injured. They're also missing their top three wide receivers and likely their starting running back as well. It's going to be awfully tough to gameplan offensively for this one but with so many unknowns, I prefer to play the 'over' with the Stamps offense capable of doing much of the heavy lifting. Stamps QB Bo Levi Mitchell returned from a broken fibula to guide his team to a much-needed 32-16 win over the Elks last week. He wasn't quite as sharp as we're accustomed to seeing but with a game under his belt and another full week of practice I look for a big performance from Mitchell here. While the Stamps defense recorded seven sacks against statue-esque Elks QB Trevor Harris in last week's victory, they'll likely find it a little more difficult getting to Ti-Cats QB Watford, who has dual-threat capabilities. I expect the Ti-Cats to design plenty of plays that allow Watford to move around in the pocket and give his receivers time to get open down the field. With Hamilton likely to be playing in catch-up mode for much of this game, look for some soft coverage from the Stamps beatable secondary. It's worth noting that despite all of its injuries, Hamilton is still currently listed as a short favorite in this game. I believe the potential is there for the Ti-Cats to keep this one competitive and for that to happen, they're going to need to put some points on the board. We've seen a bit of a shift to higher-scoring results after 'unders' ruled the first month of the CFL season. Expect more of the same on Friday night. Take the over (10*). |
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09-16-21 | Giants v. Washington Football Team UNDER 40.5 | Top | 29-30 | Loss | -103 | 31 h 40 m | Show |
NFC East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Washington at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. This is a very low total by today's NFL standards but I'm not sure it's been set low enough given the state of both of these offenses, not to mention the familiarity between the two teams and the fact they'll be playing on a short week. We saw three extremely high-scoring primetime games in Week 1 but that was to be expected given the matchups. Here, we should see a much different brand of football on display to kick off Week 2. The Giants offense is just a week into the season and it already looks downright scary - not in a good way. There was nothing creative or explosive about the G-Men offense against Denver and while that was to be expected given the strength of the Broncos lies on the defensive side of the football, this isn't much easier of a matchup for New York, if at all. With major o-line issues there's simply very little time for plays to develop before QB Daniel Jones' pocket collapses, leading to lots of short dump-off passes. RB Saquon Barkley clearly isn't all the way back from last year's devastating injury, although I do expect him to play a larger role in this week's offensive gameplan after getting only 11 touches in last Sunday's loss. Given Washington's vaunted pass rush, we can expect G-Men offensive coordinator Jason Garrett to develop a fairly conservative gameplan for Jones and the offense here, simply looking to take care of the football and sustain some drives to effectively shorten the game. Washington's offensive prospects don't look a whole lot better than New York's with QB Taylor Heinicke taking over for an injured Ryan Fitzpatrick. Heinicke won't take nearly as many chances as Fitz and this is a sneaky-tough matchup against a quality Giants secondary anyway. Washington RB Antonio Gibson is one of its biggest home run threats, along with WR Terry McLaurin, but there's still questions as to whether Gibson can take care of the football after he coughed up a pair of fumbles last week. Regardless, the Football Team should focus on churning out long, ground-oriented, clock-eating drives when on offense in this one as the Giants biggest vulnerability lies in its run defense. Take the under (10*). |
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09-14-21 | Padres v. Giants OVER 9 | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
N.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between San Diego and San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a high-scoring game between these two teams last night with the Giants doing most of the heavy-lifting in a 9-1 victory. I'm anticipating another relatively high-scoring affair as the reeling Padres look to break out of their funk on Tuesday night. Note that the Giants are as hot at the plate as any team in baseball right now, having scored a whopping 8.9 runs per game during their current eight-game winning streak. Here, they'll face a Padres club that has posted a 10-1 o/u record when playing on the road after scoring one run or less in a loss to a division opponent over the last two seasons, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 13.1 runs. In fact, the 'over' is 14-4 with the Padres playing on the road after scoring one run or less in their last game over the last two seasons, good for an average total of 11.6 runs. On the flip side of that, the Giants have posted a 15-3 o/u mark when coming off a win by six runs or more against a division opponent over the last three seasons, with that spot averaging a total of 12.8 runs. While tonight's Giants starter, Anthony DeSclafani, has generally trended to the 'under', the 'over' has actually gone 9-1 in his last 10 home starts at night with those contests totaling an average of 11.2 runs. The Padres will mercifully trot out Jake Arrieta for another turn in the rotation despite his massive struggles. With Arrieta unlikely to work deep into this game we should see plenty from an overworked San Diego bullpen that has posted a collective 5.84 ERA over the last seven games. Take the over (10*). |
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09-14-21 | Reds -155 v. Pirates | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -155 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
N.L. Central Game of the Month. My selection is on Cincinnati over Pittsburgh at 6:35 pm et on Tuesday. The Reds limp into this series after a disappointing series loss against one of the teams they're trying to fend off in the N.L. Wild Card race, the St. Louis Cardinals. Here, I feel they're well-positioned to bounce back against a Pirates club that they've owned this season, taking nine of 10 previous meetings. Note that the Reds are an incredible 11-1 in games where Wade Miley has stated and they've been priced as a favorite -110 or higher this season, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 5.0 runs in that spot. They're also a solid 8-2 when playing on the road after losing three of their last four games this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 2.0 runs in that situation. That's not to mention their 13-4 record when playing on the road following an off day over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscoring the opposition by 2.1 runs on average. Meanwhile, the Pirates are a miserable 16-44 when playing with double-revenge this season, outscored by an average margin of 2.5 runs in that situation. They've also been outscored by 1.2 runs on average when coming off two wins in their last three games, with that situation coming up 41 times previously this season. Reds starter Wade Miley is far more likely to work deep into this game than Dillon Peters for the Buccos. Note that the Pittsburgh bullpen has recorded just five saves while blowing eight against division opponents while Cincinnati has converted 21 saves while blowing 10 against N.L. Central foes. Take Cincinnati (10*). |
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09-13-21 | Red Sox v. Mariners +1.5 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
A.L. Non-Division Run-Line Game of the Month. My selection is on Seattle +1.5 runs over Boston at 10:10 pm et on Monday. I'm anticipating a tightly-contested affair as these two teams battle for American League Wild Card positioning in Monday's series-opener in Seattle. The Mariners of course suffered a major blow to their chances by dropping a pair of games against the lowly D'Backs over the weekend. They're by no means out of the race, however, as they sit just three games back of the second Wild Card spot. Note that the Red Sox have actually been outscored by an average margin of 0.9 runs over their last 33 road games. Meanwhile, the Mariners check in 20-15 after losing four or five of their last six games this season, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.3 runs in that situation. The Red Sox are just 37-48 after scoring two runs or less in their last game over the last three seasons. While they have outscored opponents on average in that spot, it has been by the slimmest of margins, just 0.1 runs. Red Sox starter Eduardo Rodriguez has been as uneven as it gets this season, and particularly of late, allowing 14 earned runs in 20 1/3 innings over his last four starts. Mariners rookie Logan Gilbert went through a miserable three-start stretch in late-August but has since turned things around, allowing just two earned runs in 9 1/3 innings over his last two outings with the Mariners splitting those two games - the lone loss came by a single run. Factoring in the +1.5 run-line, the M's are an incredible 16-2 in Gilbert's last 18 starts overall. Take Seattle +1.5 runs (10*). |
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09-13-21 | Ravens v. Raiders OVER 50 | Top | 27-33 | Win | 100 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
AFC Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Baltimore and Las Vegas at 8:15 pm et on Monday. The first Monday nighter of the 2021 season matches up two teams that will feel some urgency to get off to a positive start after watching their division mates turn in (mostly) impressive performances on Sunday. For the Ravens, they're in a loaded AFC North that saw both the Steelers and Bengals prevail yesterday while the Browns hung tough but ultimately fell by the narrowest of margins on the road against the two-time defending AFC champion Chiefs. Meanwhile, the Raiders will have to contend with an improved AFC West this year - all three of their divisional counterparts secured victories on the first Sunday of the season. With all of that being said, I don't expect to see either of these teams ease their way into proceedings on Monday night. Yes, the Ravens have been ravaged by key injuries heading into the season, particularly at the running back position. I do feel this is very much a 'plug-and-play' offense, however, that obviously revolves round the play of dual-threat QB Lamar Jackson. We can expect RB Ty'son Williams to step in and fill the void left by J.K. Dobbins, Gus Edwards and Justice Hill. With the starting job his for the taking, expect him to make a splash against a very manageable opponent on Monday. Of course, Jackson is the real key here and I expect him to have a field day against a Raiders defense that is weak at the linebacker position and also depth-shy in the secondary. With all of the changes Las Vegas made leading up to and during training camp at the linebacker and cornerback positions it's obvious that the organization has reasons for concern at those spots. Ravens TE Mark Andrew figures to be in for a big night matched up against a linebacking corps that should struggle in coverage. Las Vegas did upgrade its defensive line with the addition of Yannick Ngakoue from the Ravens in free agency. However, he's on his fourth team since 2019 and I think there's a reason for that. The Ravens weren't willing to pay up to re-sign him after he was relatively ineffective for them last season. The Raiders offense was actually pretty fun to watch last season, noting that they scored 30+ points on seven different occasions. Known for his lack of aggressiveness throwing the ball down field, we saw QB Derek Carr show some improvement in that regard last season. The Raiders used a first round pick to draft speedster Henry Ruggs in 2020, determined to stretch the field more to keep up with the likes of the high-octane Chiefs offense, and that they did, even picking up a 40-32 win at Arrowhead Stadium last October. TE Darren Waller is the real focal point of the offense, however, and I would certainly anticipate a strong performance from him in a likely high-volume spot here in the opener. Note that the 'over' has gone a perfect 6-0 with the Raiders listed as a 3.5-9-point underdog over the last two seasons with those games totaling an average of 64.7 points. The 'over' has also gone 9-2 in the Raiders last 11 games played on turf with those contests averaging 57.6 total points. John Harbaugh's Ravens teams have had plenty of success lighting up the Raiders defense over the years, noting that in four meetings between 2015 and 2018, Baltimore put up 33, 27, 30 and 34 points. Expect more of the same on Monday night. Take the over (10*). |
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09-12-21 | Storm v. Sparks OVER 154 | Top | 53-81 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
WNBA Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and Los Angeles at 9 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'under' in the Sparks most recent game, a 75-57 loss here at home against Connecticut. I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'over' on Sunday as the Sparks welcome the defending champion Storm. Seattle is going to be without Breanna Stewart for this one and likely for the remainder of the regular season. I'm confident enough in the Storm's scoring depth that they can still hang a crooked number on the scoreboard in this one. Note that Los Angeles has actually held six straight opponents to under 80 points - by far its longest such streak of the season. I expect that streak to come to an end here with Seattle rolling into this game having scored 85 and 105 points in its last two games - both double-digit victories. Note that the Storm are averaging 86.5 points per game on the road this season. The real question here is whether the Sparks can contribute enough offensively to help this one 'over' the total. I believe they can. They're coming off a woeful 2-of-10 three-point shooting effort against the Sun. Keep in mind, L.A. averages six made threes on 20 attempts at home this season. On the flip side, the Storm will give up their share of threes, allowing nine made on 23 attempts per game on the road this season. With the Sparks having scored less than 60 points in consecutive games - the first time that's happened all season - I look for them to make a concerted effort to push the pace a little bit in this one, noting that they're essentially just playing out the string at this point. Take the over (10*). |
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09-12-21 | Bears v. Rams -7.5 | Top | 14-34 | Win | 100 | 14 h 38 m | Show |
NFL First Half Game of the Week. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points first half over Chicago at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. I can't help but feel Bears head coach Matt Nagy is effectively 'punting' the season-opener against the Rams in Week 1, frustratingly sticking with veteran Andy Dalton as his starting quarterback, leaving electric first round pick Justin Fields relegated to clipboard duty on Sunday night. That suits our purposes just fine as the Rams should control proceedings on both sides of the football. I can't imagine anything other than a limited playbook for Dalton, who will be operating behind a makeshift offensive line with a supporting cast that lacks gamebreaking ability. Dalton had moderate success taking over from an injured Dak Prescott last season but was gifted a loaded Cowboys offense in that situation. Allen Robinson is a stud at wide receiver but he's likely to be offered up blanket coverage from the Rams secondary. Los Angeles simply didn't give up big plays to opposing passing games last year and there's little reason to anticipate anything different here in 2021. On the flip side, Rams QB Matt Stafford couldn't ask for a better opponent to debut against than the familiar Bears. Unlike in Detroit, here he'll be afforded the opportunity to work behind an elite offensive line that gets back all five starters from last season. Chicago's defense is considerably stronger up front than it is at the back-end and that spells trouble in today's pass-happy NFL. Stafford has enough mobility to evade the likes of Khalil Mack and find his wealth of targets down field. Expect Rams receivers Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods to find plenty of open field to work with on Sunday night. Here, we'll play the first half only simply due to the ever-so-slight chance that Nagy turns to Fields should things really go sideways in the first half with Dalton. Take Los Angeles first half (10*). |
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09-12-21 | Jaguars -3 v. Texans | Top | 21-37 | Loss | -120 | 19 h 19 m | Show |
AFC South Game of the Year. My selection is on Jacksonville minus the points over Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Texans are going to be bad. Really bad. With that being said, Trevor Lawrence got off to a slow start running the Jags offense in the preseason (when everyone was paying attention) and most bettors are fairly low on Jacksonville so we're able to grab the Jags laying a very reasonable number of points in Week 1. I believe this line will look awfully short by comparison as the season unfolds and we realize just how bad the Texans are. The Jags were willing to trade capable backup QB Gardner Minshew for a reason. They're confident in Lawrence's abilities and I think we should be too, especially after watching him finally find some rhythm and a solid rapport with his receivers over the final couple of preseason games. Jacksonville boasts a solid wide receiving corps with veteran Marvin Jones, dynamic sophomore Laviska Shenault and D.J. Chark. While the season-ending injury to rookie RB Travis Etienne hurts, the Jags have solid depth at that position and I expect RB James Robinson to relish the opportunity to once again stake claim to the starting job. While much will be made about the awful Texans offense, their defense could be even worse. Trading away CB Bradley Roby was further evidence of the Texans intent to tank this season. The less said about the Jacksonville defense the better, but there's no question this is a favorable opening week matchup against a Texans offense that is bereft of dynamic talent with journeyman QB Tyrod Taylor being asked to shoulder the load, with a backfield that consists of the ghosts of David Johnson, Mark Ingram and Broncos castoff Phillip Lindsay. Quarterbacks drafted first overall have had very little success starting in Week 1 but I believe this is a unique situation given the matchup. Take Jacksonville (10*). |
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09-12-21 | Jets v. Panthers OVER 44.5 | Top | 14-19 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 59 m | Show |
NFL Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Carolina at 1 pm et on Sunday. This one has the potential to be one of the more sneaky-entertaining, high-scoring games of the week as the Jets travel to Carolina to take on the Panthers. Carolina's offense was woeful last season, largely due to an early-season injury to do-it-all RB Christian McCaffrey but also as a result of game manager Teddy Bridgewater playing quarterback. While Sam Darnold comes to Carolina with little reason for optimism based on his performance as a New York Jet, I believe Darnold could actually thrive in this Panthers offense. Unlike in New York, Darnold now has a wealth of talent to work with, starting with McCaffrey in the backfield, but also former Jet WR Robby Anderson, big play threat D.J. Moore and promising rookie Terrace Marshall Jr. The Jets secondary should be no match at all for the Panthers receiving corps. Meanwhile, the New York pass rush took a massive hit with the likes of Carl Lawson, Vinny Curry and Jarrad Davis all sidelined due to injuries. The real question here is whether first round pick QB Zach Wilson can do enough in the Jets offense to help this one 'over' the total. I believe he can. While some will chalk up his preseason success to playing against second and third-string defenders, I think we'll see some carry-over effect. Wilson has built up a strong enough rapport with his receivers, most notably former Titan Corey Davis, and should be able to take advantage of a Panthers secondary that should prove to be its defensive weakness, particularly in the early stages of the season. I wouldn't count on the Jets banging their heads against the wall trying to run the football in this one. If anything, look for some designed runs from Wilson as he provides the offensive spark the Jets have so desperately needed for so many years. Take the over (10*). |
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09-12-21 | Steelers v. Bills -6.5 | Top | 23-16 | Loss | -103 | 19 h 37 m | Show |
AFC Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Buffalo minus the points over Pittsburgh at 1 pm et on Sunday. After taking a deeper dive into this intriguing Week 1 AFC showdown, I really like the way it sets up for the Bills. Pittsburgh has the potential to be a very good team this year in what figures to be the 'last ride' for the tandem of head coach Mike Tomlin and QB Ben Roethlisberger. I say that not because Tomlin's job is in jeopardy but rather due to the clock ticking on Big Ben's career. The real concern for the Steelers lies in two different areas - on the offensive line and on defense. The o-line should be in for a nightmarish day trying to keep Big Ben upright against a fierce Bills pass rush that only got better through the draft. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh's secondary - outside of standout Minkah Fitzpatrick - figures to take a step back with tough corners Steven Nelson and Mike Hilton moving on in the offseason. Also of note, one of the Steelers best defenders and pass rushers, Stephon Tuitt starts the season on the shelf. The Bills are quite simply loaded on both sides of the football and will be looking to make a real statement in this tough-on-paper opening week matchup against the Steelers. Some are down on Bills WR Cole Beasley but despite his concerning Covid vaccine stance, he figures to play a major factor here playing second-fiddle to superstar Stefon Diggs. It's easy to forget that these two teams just met in Week 14 last season with the Bills having little trouble prevailing by a double-digit margin, 26-15. A similar outcome is well within the realm of possibility here. Take Buffalo (10*). |
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09-11-21 | Iowa v. Iowa State UNDER 46.5 | Top | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 28 h 25 m | Show |
CFB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Iowa and Iowa State at 4:30 pm et on Saturday. We won with the 'under' in Iowa's season-opener against Indiana last week and were extremely fortunate to do so as the Hawkeyes built a big lead and essentially 'parked the bus' in the second half. Here, I'm expecting both sides to contribute to keeping this one 'under' the total, noting that this rivalry series has generally been low-scoring with last year's matchup producing just 35 total points. Iowa set the tone early against Indiana last week, with RB Tyler Goodson breaking off a 56-yard touchdown run less than two minutes into the game. From there, Indiana had to take a lot more chances than it would have liked and ultimately threw a pair of pick-sixes in the first half. All told, the Hawkeyes allowed just one big play in the entire game - that being a 33-yard catch from standout Hoosiers WR Ty Fryfogle. With Iowa's ball-hawking (no pun intended) tendencies, I think we'll see Iowa State go a little more conservative on offense, noting that the Cyclones are coming off a very low-scoring 16-10 victory over FCS squad Northern Iowa last week. In that game, Iowa State scored a touchdown halfway through the second quarter but was then held out of the end zone the rest of the way. The Cyclones were efficient in the passing game but QB Brock Purdy only attempted 26 passes. Meanwhile, they ran the ball 34 times. On the flip side of that, Iowa State effectively had just one defensive breakdown in the entire game against NIU, that coming on a first quarter 52-yard catch and run that resulted in a touchdown. I do think Iowa State can find success against the rival Hawkeyes by grinding out long, clock-churning drives and essentially shortening this game. Of course, the same can be said for Iowa. Note that Hawkeyes QB Spencer Petras actually completed just 13-of-27 passes for only 145 yards in last week's 34-point performance. With both teams returning plenty of talent from last season and a win or a loss meaning so much, even at this early stage of the season with these two teams sitting in the top-25 rankings, I'm anticipating a tightly-contested, low-scoring affair on Saturday afternoon. Take the under (10*). |
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09-10-21 | Kansas v. Coastal Carolina -26 | Top | 22-49 | Win | 100 | 30 h 31 m | Show |
CFB Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Coastal Carolina minus the points over Kansas at 7:30 pm et on Friday. I absolutely love the way this one sets up for Coastal Carolina as despite its Top 25 ranking (which is well-deserved by the way) will get a rare opportunity to perform in front of a national audience, against a Power Five conference opponent, no less. I expect the Chanticleers to take full advantage. Kansas football has been a disaster for years now. To understand the state of the program, look no further than last week's game against FCS squad South Dakota. The Jayhawks won that game by a 17-14 score. At the end of the game the fans stormed the field. Yikes. Note that Kansas didn't manage to even score in that game until the final 30 seconds of the first half. That was only thanks to South Dakota handing it excellent field position due to a poor punt late in the first half. From there, the Jayhawks reach the end zone again until the final 1:10 of the fourth quarter. Now Kansas heads on the road to face a Coastal Carolina squad that laid waste to FCS foe Citadel in their season-opener last week. A stark contrast to Kansas, the Chanticleers went full throttle offensively from start to finish in that game. They were ahead 21-0 midway through the second quarter and entered halftime with a 31-0 cushion. They didn't allow a single score until the game was already well in hand, up 38-0 with just over six minutes remaining in the third quarter. I liked the way Coastal Carolina continued to pour it on, even scoring a touchdown in the game's final three minutes. This is a Chanticleers squad that is loaded with returning talent on both sides of the football and eager to prove that last season was no fluke, not Covid-assisted. Expect a rout on Friday night. Take Coastal Carolina (10*). |
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09-08-21 | Rangers v. Diamondbacks OVER 8.5 | Top | 8-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 24 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Texas and Arizona at 3:40 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a low-scoring game between these two teams last night. In fact, the Rangers have now seen two straight and four of their last five contests stay 'under' the total. I look for a different story to unfold here. Note that the 'over' is a perfect 8-0 with the D'Backs coming off a three-game stretch in which they hit .200 or worse as a team this season, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 13.3 runs. The 'over' is also 26-11 when Arizona revenges a loss against an opponent as a home favorite over the last three seasons with that spot producing an average total of 11.5 runs. If there's one spot where we can generally count on high-scoring games involving the Rangers, it's on the road in day games over the last two seasons, with the 'over' cashing at a 21-10 clip in that spot, good for an average of 10.5 total runs. With a subpar starting pitching matchup between Arihara and Weaver, not to mention two unreliable bullpens, look for plenty of offensive fireworks in this one. Take the over (10*). |
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09-07-21 | Mets v. Marlins OVER 7.5 | Top | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
N.L. East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Miami at 6:40 pm et on Tuesday. High-scoring games involving the Marlins have been few and far between in recent weeks but that's the type of contest I'm expecting as they open a series against the Marlins on Tuesday night. Note that the 'over' has gone 12-1 when Miami plays at home after consecutive games where it recorded two hits or less over the last three seasons, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 12.6 runs. The 'over' is also 30-14 when the Marlins play at home after consecutive games where they've scored three runs or less over the same stretch, leading to an average total of 10.2 runs scored. Finally, Miami is allowing 5.0 runs per game after allowing four runs or less in five straight games over the last three seasons, as is the case here, but also averaging 5.0 runs per game itself when coming off a one-run loss against a division opponent this year. With both lineups having just got a look at tonight's opposing starter in the last week, look for more than enough offense to topple this relatively low total on Tuesday. Take the over (10*). |
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09-07-21 | Twins v. Indians -133 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -133 | 8 h 30 m | Show |
MLB A.L. Central Game of the Month. My selection is on Cleveland over Minnesota at 6:10 pm et on Tuesday. I'll keep it simple with my analysis for this play. I really like the way this one sets up for the Indians. Note that Cleveland checks in 26-9 when playing at home as a favorite priced at -110 or higher this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.8 runs. Better still, the Indians are 26-8 when coming off a game where they scored two runs or less this season, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 2.1 runs on average in that spot. They'll have Aaron CiVale back on the mound for the first time since June, noting that they've gone 12-3 in his 15 previous outings this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 2.7 runs. Meanwhile, the Twins are 9-16 when coming off two more consecutive wins this season while also going 29-40 after losing four or five of their last six games, as is the case here. Take Cleveland (10*). |
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09-06-21 | Louisville v. Ole Miss OVER 75 | Top | 24-43 | Loss | -112 | 22 h 23 m | Show |
CFB Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Louisville and Ole Miss at 8 pm et on Monday. I don't know if everyone realizes just how high the ceiling is for this Ole Miss offense this season. Last year, the Rebels put up 48+ points on four different occasions (in only 10 games). Most of the key pieces from that offense are back in place and while head coach Lane Kiffin will miss Monday's game after testing positive for Covid-19, I don't expect the offense to miss a beat. Meanwhile, the Louisville offense should be along for the ride in this one, likely playing in comeback mode for much of the night. The Cardinals are well-suited to put points on the board as well with QB Malik Cunningham firmly entrenched as the starter - unlike last season. Louisville turned in a solid 2020 campaign offensively but there's still a lot of room for improvement. Cunningham needs to take better care of the football but I don't expect him to be any less aggressive. The Cardinals lose more talent on offense than the Rebels but there are still plenty of playmakers, more than enough to give the Rebels defense some problems in this one. On the fast track in Atlanta, there's a reason why we're dealing with such a high posted total. I'm not sure the oddsmakers can set the total high enough. Take the over (10*). |
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09-06-21 | Mariners v. Astros OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-11 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
MLB Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and Houston at 7:10 pm et on Monday. I like the way this one sets up as a high-scoring affair between the Mariners and Astros on Monday night. Note that the 'over' has gone 17-5 with the Mariners coming off four or more consecutive wins over the last three seasons, as is the case here, with those games averaging 11.8 total runs. Meanwhile, the 'over' has gone 12-3 with the Astros playing at home after losing three of their last four games with that situation producing an average total of 11.4 runs. The Astros will inexplicably be getting their sixth look at Mariners starter Yusei Kikuchi this season while the Mariners will be seeing Lance McCullers Jr. for the four time this year and seventh time since the start of 2020. Four of Kikuchi's six starts against Houston since last season have totaled at least 11 runs. Two of McCullers Jr.'s three outings against Seattle this year have reached at least 14 total runs. Take the over (10*). |
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09-06-21 | Edmonton Elks v. Calgary OVER 42.5 | Top | 32-20 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
CFL West Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Edmonton and Calgary at 4:30 pm et on Monday. The fact that the Stampeders were involved in a low-scoring 18-16 setback against the Blue Bombers last week works out well for our purposes here as we're once again being afforded a low total to work with. The Elks of course had last week's game postponed as they had a number of players in Covid protocols. When we last saw Edmonton, it did show signs of life offensively with QB Trevor Harris completing 26-of-31 passes in a victory in B.C. The Elks have too much talent on offense to be held down for long and I expect them to come out with an aggressive offensive gameplan here in the Labor Day Classic in Calgary. The Stamps were written off by most with the injury to star QB Bo Levi Mitchell but Jake Maier has stepped in and performed admirably. Last week against arguably the league's best defense, on the road no less, Maier completed 30-of-39 passes for 307 yards. He hasn't shied away from taking chances down the field - it certainly helps that he has an excellent receiving corps to work with. The Elks defense hasn't really been tested all that much this season with their first three games coming against Ottawa, Montreal and B.C. - three teams that have been very inconsistent on offense so far this season. We don't need a shootout to cash this ticket but that type of contest is certainly well within the realm of possibility. Take the over (10*). |
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09-05-21 | Rangers +1.5 v. Angels | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 4 h 19 m | Show |
MLB Run-Line Game of the Month. My selection is on Texas +1.5 runs over Los Angeles at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. I like the way this one sets up for the Rangers after they dropped the first two games in this series. Note that as bad as things have gone for the Rangers, particularly on the road, they haven't lost three consecutive games against an opponent away from home since back on August 6th-8th against Oakland. The A's are obviously in a class above today's opponent, the Angels. You would have to go back to July 2nd-4th to find the last time the Angels recorded three straight home wins against an opponent - those coming against the Orioles. Here, we find Los Angeles having gone 3-10, outscored by 1.9 runs on average, when coming off consecutive games in which it allowed two runs or less over the last two seasons, as is the case here. The Angels have received solid outings from their starting pitchers so far in this series but this is probably a bullpen game for them with Janson Junk making his big league debut. The Angels 'pen owns a collective 5.31 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in day games this season and checks in overworked having logged a whopping 32 innings over their last seven games. Take Texas +1.5 runs (10*). |
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09-05-21 | Aces v. Sky UNDER 169.5 | Top | 84-92 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 26 m | Show |
WNBA Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Las Vegas and Chicago at 3 pm et on Sunday. The first game in this home-and-home set reached 173 points as Candace Parker went off for 30 points for the Sky while the Aces had A'ja Wilson, Riquna Williams and Kelsey Plum all contribute 21 points, weathering the storm without Liz Cambage and Dearica Hamby, who are both expected to miss Sunday's game as well. That frontcourt duo's absence opened things up for the Chicago offense, with Stefanie Dolson also scoring in double-figures. I do expect to see the Aces make the necessary adjustments here, noting that Parker and Dolson have both failed to record double-digit scoring figures in consecutive games since the return from the Olympic break. Las Vegas has of course been a lower-scoring team on the road this season and here will face a determined Chicago squad coming off back-to-back losses that knows it needs to tighten things up, and perhaps slow things down a bit, as they return home off a long road trip. Note that the Aces are averaging just north of 75 points per game away from home since the break and will be hard-pressed to improve on that scoring average with Cambage and Hamby sidelined. Meanwhile, as I mentioned Chicago is back home on just two days' rest following a five-game in 10-night road trip that took it all over the map. Take the under (10*). |
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09-04-21 | New Mexico State v. San Diego State -31 | Top | 10-28 | Loss | -110 | 84 h 52 m | Show |
CFB Blowout Game of the Month. My selection is on San Diego State minus the points over New Mexico State at 10:30 pm et on Saturday. We successfully faded New Mexico State in its first real game action since the 2019 season last week and I won't hesitate to go back to the well as it takes another step up in class in its first road test of the season against San Diego State. The Aggies did little right in last week's 30-3 drubbing at the hands of UTEP. There's little reason to expect another week of practice will change anything. The questions start at quarterback where neither Jonah Johnson or Weston Eget appear to be the answer under center. The duo combined to complete a woeful 9-of-33 passes for 89 yards in last week's lopsided loss. The ground game didn't work either as no NMSU back ran for more than 4.1 yards per carry. Backup QB Weston Eget had the team's longest rush of the game and that went for just 19 yards in garbage time. The final score actually could have been much uglier were it not for UTEP committing a whopping 12 penalties for 140 yards. Penalties were really the only way that NMSU was able to move the football down the field. The Aggies did manage two interceptions as well but that's not something we can bank on again this week as they face an Aztecs squad that is likely to pound away with its elite ground attack for much of the night. The Aztecs missed playing in a Bowl game for the first time in a decade last season with an injury to RB Greg Bell essentially derailing their campaign. Bell is back this year, along with five other players that have found their way onto the Reese's Senior Bowl Watch List. While San Diego State isn't exactly set at quarterback with Jordon Brookshire - last year's fourth-stringer at the position - winning the job. All indications are that Brookshire won the job convincingly and the Senior QB will be afforded a favorable matchup to open the season here, noting that the Aggies didn't record a single sack in last week's loss to UTEP. Brookshire has plenty of talent around him with an elite backfield not to mention all seven leading wide receivers from a year ago back in the mix and TE Daniel Bellinger, who could very well have an NFL career ahead of him. This is obviously a steep number but I'm not sure the oddsmakers or the betting majority realize just how bad this Aggies squad is - not yet, at least. Last week's opponent, UTEP, entered the season hoping that it could sneak into a Bowl game and a win over NMSU was imperative. San Diego State on the other hand, has loftier goals, believing it can contend for a Mountain West Conference title after last year's disappointment. Look for the Aztecs to win in convincing fashion in Week 1. Take San Diego State (10*). |
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09-04-21 | Indiana v. Iowa UNDER 45.5 | Top | 6-34 | Win | 100 | 80 h 43 m | Show |
Big Ten Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Indiana and Iowa at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. To put it simply, I expect the defenses to be ahead of the offenses in this Week 1 Big Ten showdown at Kinnick Stadium. With that being said, I'm not sure we'll see a whole lot of 'splash plays' resulting in turnovers or short fields from the defenses that would contribute to a higher-scoring game than expected. Indiana scored more than 30 points in four of its first five games last season before the offense sputtered down the stretch, putting up just north of 20 points per game over its final three contests culminating with a 26-20 loss against Ole Miss in the Outback Bowl. The upstart Hoosiers caught some opponents - namely Penn State and Michigan - flat-footed in the early stages of last year's unique season but I don't expect them to do the same against a well-coached Iowa squad here. Michael Penix Jr. is back under center for the Hoosiers after suffering another knee injury that required season-ending surgery last year. All indications are that he's good to go for the opener but I'm not sure the Hoosiers offensive gameplan will involve throwing him to the wolves in this difficult opening week road tilt. Indiana's ground attack hasn't impressed in recent years but I do think it will make a concerted effort to control the clock and pound away a little bit in this one. Indiana's defense struggled in pass coverage a year ago but gets back plenty of experience in the secondary and should hold up just fine against a Hawkeyes offense that isn't built to bomb away. The Hoosiers defense proved more than capable of stopping the run and getting into the backfield to harass opposing quarterbacks a year ago and most of the key pieces from that unit are back. Iowa's offense took a bit of a step forward last year thanks to ultra-efficient performance in the red zone. Can it repeat that level of production this year? I'm not so sure. QB Spencer Petras loses his top two wide receivers from a year ago to begin with. Keep in mind, the Hawkeyes aerial attack managed just nine touchdowns all of last season. There's reason to believe the Iowa ground game can continue to find success, even with Mekhi Sargent moving on to the NFL (and impressing in preseason action with the Titans). Tyler Goodson is a quality running back that seems like he's been around forever, but he's not exactly a true home run hitter out of the backfield. There will be times where the Hawkeyes offense plods along in this contest. Last year, Hawkeyes home games produced 41, 56, 46 and 35 total points. That was about par for the course for a team that has become accustomed to playing tight, relatively low-scoring affairs here at Kinnick Stadium over the years. There will be opportunities to sneak in 'over' plays in games involving Iowa this season as we're almost always afforded relatively low totals. I just don't believe this is such a spot. Take the under (10*). |
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09-04-21 | Temple v. Rutgers -14.5 | Top | 14-61 | Win | 100 | 48 h 24 m | Show |
CFB on BTN Game of the Year. My selection is on Rutgers minus the points over Temple at 3 pm et on Saturday. NOTE: This game was moved from Thursday to Saturday. We'll stick with our original play on Rutgers. Bettors are generally 'Rutgers-averse' as in they're not all that interested in backing the Scarlet Knights thanks to years of futility in Piscataway. Last season, the Knights actually made some headway despite a 3-6 overall record as they were highly-competitive and could have just as easily won six or seven games. Now, with their sights set on a possible Bowl game, I look for the Knights to get off to a strong start in their home opener against Temple. The Owls were one of the weakest teams in the nation in a unique Covid-tinged 2020 season. They finished 10th in the AAC, averaging just 20 points per game. The hope is that Georgia transfer D'Wan Mathis can be the answer at quarterback. He was the opening day starter for the mighty Bulldogs last year but struggled against Arkansas and only appeared in two more games before deciding to transfer. Mathis got that season-opening start due to necessity only as the Bulldogs were dealing with injuries at the position. Now he needs to learn a new offense and doesn't exactly have a cupboard full of weapons to work with. Re-al Mitchell could eat into some of Mathis' snaps. Keep in mind, Mitchell couldn't win the starting job last year, even after Anthony Russo went down to injury. Standout RB Re'Man Davis is gone. The owls coaching staff is saying all the right things when it comes to the Owls backfield options but they're also talking about a running back by committee approach. That tells me there's no true standout in the backfield entering the season. Defensively, the Owls got torched throughout the 2020 season. Now they lose their sack leader from a year ago, along with three defensive tackles. Two corners are gone as well, from a group that couldn't come up with any big plays with just three interceptions all season. Rutgers on the other hand is loaded with returning talent on the offensive side of the football. I like the stability and continuity of this group which will be led by QB Noah Vedral. He was asked to do a little too much last year and ultimately threw just nine touchdowns and eight interceptions. I expect a different story to unfold this year as he can let the likes of RB Isaih Pacheco and the outstanding WR duo of Bo Melton and Aron Cruickshank go to work. The o-line was an issue a year ago but gets all five starters back and there's really nowhere to go but up. This is a favorable matchup for that unit to ease its way into the new season as the Owls aren't likely to have a dominant pass rush. There are a couple of key losses for the Scarlet Knights to deal with on defense but they return the bulk of the unit that did enough last season to provide some optimism entering 2021. The Knights actually scooped one of Temple's best defenders from a year ago in the transfer portal in Ifeanyi Maijeh. He might not even earn a starting job which tells you that the Knights boast plenty of talent on the defensive line. They're loaded at linebacker and have something to build on in the secondary with a pair of corners that earned honorable mentions on the All-Big Ten list last season. I expect this defense to make progress this season, and like the o-line, it gets a favorable opening week matchup against a Temple offense that isn't likely to come out firing on all cylinders. If Rutgers is going to make a run at a Bowl game, this is a game it needs to win. With Syracuse and Delaware on deck there's a real chance for the Scarlet Knights to get off to a strong start before the schedule really toughens up in late September. I believe there's a class difference that simply isn't being represented with this line sitting under two touchdowns (at the time of writing). Take Rutgers (10*). |
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09-03-21 | Montreal v. Ottawa OVER 42.5 | Top | 51-29 | Win | 100 | 34 h 22 m | Show |
CFL East Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Montreal and Ottawa at 7:30 pm et on Friday. With both teams coming off dismal offensive performances last week I think most bettors will be looking to back the 'under' in this matchup of 1-2 teams on Friday night. I'll go the other way as I believe we're being afforded a very reasonable total in a game where we can expect to see some progression from both offenses. The Alouettes actually have one of the more aggressive downfield passing games in the league led by QB Vernon Adams Jr. They ran into a tough matchup last week with the Ti-Cats heading into Montreal sporting an 0-2 record. Hamilton is of course an elite team and played with a real edge, particularly on the defensive side of the football. While Ottawa has posted some excellent numbers defensively in the early going this season, we're not talking about an elite defense in my opinion. It's had more to do with game flow as a result of its own punchless offense as far as I'm concerned. Here, I do think we'll see the RedBlacks get a spark offensively with head coach Paul LaPolice hinting at backup QB Dominique Davis possibly being worked into the gameplan with Matt Nichols struggling. With the Ottawa ground game stalled and starter Timothy Flanders battling an injury we should see the RedBlacks air it out more often than usual in this one. Both teams are in desperate need of a victory off consecutive losses and with that in mind, I look for both offenses to take a few more chances than they otherwise would, leading to a higher-scoring game than most are anticipating. Keep in mind, the last time these two teams met they combined to score a whopping 74 points back in 2019. Take the over (10*). |
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09-03-21 | Indians v. Red Sox UNDER 9 | Top | 5-8 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
American League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Boston at 7:10 pm et on Friday. If we're going to play an 'under' at this stage of the MLB season, we want to do so in situations where both starters are capable of working deep into the game as bullpens are usually overworked by this point and tend to be unreliable. That makes this play appealing as both Indians starter Cal Quantrill and Red Sox starter Nathan Eovaldi certainly fit the bill. Quantrill has worked at least six innings in seven of his last eight starts overall and has the benefit of pitching on a full five days' rest here. He's been a completely different pitcher since the second week of July, allowing more than a single earned run just three times in his last 10 outings. The 'under' has cashed in each of his last nine trips to the hill. Meanwhile, Nathan Eovaldi has worked at least into the sixth inning in eight of his last 11 starts and into the seventh inning in five consecutive outings at home. He's been solid at Fenway Park all season, recording a 2.90 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. Like Quantrill, he'll be pitching on a full five days' rest here, noting that the two starters just matched up in Cleveland last week with that game totaling eight runs. Note that two of the Indians best hitters, Jose Ramirez and Franmil Reyes are currently mired in 0-for-11 and 0-for-14 slumps at the plate, respectively. As for the bullpens, they've combined to record seven saves while blowing only two over their last eight games. With both teams playing well right now, I'm anticipating a tightly-contested, relatively low-scoring affair on a cool September night at Fenway Park. Take the under (10*). |
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09-03-21 | North Carolina -5 v. Virginia Tech | Top | 10-17 | Loss | -110 | 103 h 14 m | Show |
ACC Game of the Month. My selection is on North Carolina minus the points over Virginia Tech at 6 pm et on Friday. A trip to Blacksburg isn't nearly as daunting as it once was. I love the way this one sets up for the Tar Heels who have their sights set on some lofty goals once again this season. North Carolina loses plenty of talent to the NFL - that's simply the sign of a great college team. The best programs don't need to rebuild, they simply reload, and I think that's the case with Mack Brown's Tar Heels. QB Sam Howell is back to run the offense and despite losing a host of talent at the running back and wide receiver positions, I expect this high-octane attack to keep humming along. This is obviously a big season for Howell as he's likely to be a highly-touted NFL draft pick next spring. First things first, he looks to guide this Tar Heels squad to another stellar campaign. While plenty of names have moved on, the cupboard is by no means bare. RB Ty Chandler transfers in from Tennessee and should run wild behind an offensive line that was terrific at opening up holes for the ground game last season and returns all five starters this year. There are questions at the wide receiver position but this is very much a 'plug-and-play' type offense and there's a host of talented receivers that have simply been waiting for their opportunity to step out of the shadows and into the spotlight. It shouldn't take long for this offense to start piling up points. The Tar Heels defense loses standout LB Chazz Surratt but that's about it. There's talent and experience all over the field. While the North Carolina offense gets all the press, the defense can play as well and I expect it to come out and make a statement against an overmatched Hokies offense here. Virginia Tech has managed to go just 19-18 SU over the last three seasons under head coach Justin Fuente. Keep in mind, the Hokies went 19-8 in Fuente's first two seasons as he reaped the benefits of Frank Beamer recruits. If it weren't for standout RB Khalil Herbert, the Hokies probably wouldn't have won five games last year. He's gone so now someone else will need to step up. Unfortunately, the Hokies don't have the benefit of a transfer like Chandler for the Tar Heels. The biggest issue might be on the offensive line where Virginia Tech lost two of its best starters to the transfer portal. It's going to take some time for the new look o-line to come together - the problem is the Hokies won't have the benefit of time here in Week 1 as the Tar Heels are capable of scoring in bunches. Virginia Tech's defense returns just six starters from a year ago. This simply isn't the same feared Hokies defense from the Frank Beamer era. Last season, Virginia Tech gave up just shy of 450 total yards per game and 32 points per contest. I'll admit, it's likely we'll see an improved defense here in 2021. Jordan Williams transfers in from Clemson to anchor the defensive line but there are still holes that I believe the Tar Heels will be able to expose over the course of four quarters on Friday. All of North Carolina's road games this season are winnable, with the toughest test coming at Notre Dame on the final Saturday in October. If the Tar Heels are going to reach their goals, they need to get off to a fast start and I'm certain the Hokies will have their full attention this week. Take North Carolina (10*). |
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09-02-21 | Brewers v. Giants -161 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 18 h 7 m | Show |
MLB Division Game of the Month. My selection is on San Francisco over Milwaukee at 3:45 pm et on Thursday. The Giants haven't exactly been at their best lately but with arguably the most underrated starter in baseball taking the mound for them in Logan Webb on Thursday afternoon, I look for them to get past Eric Lauer and the Brewers. First let's deal with Lauer. The Giants haven't seen him since 2019 when they faced the left-hander three times, clearly figuring him out over the last two of those games, scoring nine earned runs including three home runs in just 12 innings. Lauer hasn't worked beyond the fifth inning in any of his last five starts. While he's done a nice job of keeping the ball in the park, his command has been lacking lately as he's issued five walks in nine innings over his last two starts. The Brewers bullpen has been outstanding this season, with one exception. Milwaukee's relief corps has posted a less than impressive 4.26 ERA and 1.41 WHIP with 19 saves converted and 12 blown in day games. As I mentioned, Logan Webb is one of the most underrated starters in all of baseball, particularly here at home where he has posted a 1.75 ERA and 1.01 WHIP with the Giants winning all eight of his previous starts. Webb will be looking to exact a little revenge here. He pitched well, allowing only one earned run on three hits over six innings in Milwaukee back on August 6th but the Giants ultimately dropped that contest by a 2-1 score. Note that Webb brings fantastic form to the table having recorded a 1.33 ERA and 0.98 WHIP over his last three outings. The Giants bullpen has been at its best in day games this season, posting a collective 2.77 ERA and 0.99 WHIP with 18 saves converted and only six blown. Take San Francisco (10*). |
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09-01-21 | Astros v. Mariners OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 1 m | Show |
A.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Seattle at 4:10 pm et on Wednesday. We've seen consecutive low-scoring games to open this series but I expect a different story to unfold on Wednesday afternoon. Jake Odorizzi gets the nod for the Astros. He hasn't worked six innings in a start since way back on July 9th and that's telling. He hasn't been pitching particularly well, sporting a 1.50 WHIP over his last three starts. The Mariners have already got three previous looks at him this season and have had some success, collecting eight earned runs and delivering three home runs off of him. Note that the 'over' has cashed in six of his last eight starts overall with his last two outings against the Mariners totaling 16 and 15 runs. Logan Gilbert has seemingly hit the 'rookie wall' for the Mariners. He'll pitch on just four days' rest and make his sixth start since August 4th, having allowed a whopping 24 earned runs over his previous five including five home runs over his last three trips to the hill. The Astros just teed off on him back on August 21st, scoring nine earned runs on eight hits over just 4 2/3 innings in a 15-1 victory. Both bullpens are generally solid but check in having blown two saves apiece over their last seven games respectively. Take the over (10*). |
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09-01-21 | Netherlands v. Norway OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -102 | 32 h 47 m | Show |
World Cup Qualifying 1H Total of the Year. My selection is on the first half 'over' 1.0 goal between Norway and the Netherlands at 2:45 pm et on Wednesday. I'm certain we'll see the Netherlands come in with the mindset that they need to find an early goal in this match as the longer it stays 0-0, the better the chances that Erling Haaland works his magic and pulls off a stunner for the underdog Norwegians. Of course, the Dutch are brimming with talent - that was on full display during Euro 2020, but unfortunately only in the group stage. After making an early exit at the hands of the Czechs (by way of a 2-0 shutout), the Netherlands will be eager to gain a positive result here. This is certainly a favorable matchup as while Norway does boast starpower in Haaland up front, it is not all that deep and should be hard-pressed to contend for 90 minutes. With that in mind, I don't believe Norway has the belief in itself to play for a 0-0 draw in this one. The Norwegians know that they'll need to take some chances in attack if they're to have any chance at stealing a point from the Netherlands. It's not as if the Dutch are invincible - noting that they suffered a 4-2 defeat at the hands of Turkey in World Cup Qualifying back in March. Norway has seen five first half goals in three previous World Cup Qualifying matches this year. Finding an early goal from one, if not both of these sides on Wednesday should not be difficult. I believe two first half markers is well within the realm of possibility. Take the first half over (10*). |
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08-31-21 | Sky v. Mercury UNDER 164 | Top | 83-103 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
WNBA Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Phoenix at 10 pm et on Tuesday. The Sky are locked in defensively right now, fresh off holding the defending champion Seattle Storm to just 69 and 75 points in a two-game sweep in the Pacific Northwest. Meanwhile, Phoenix has scored 80 or more points in three straight games but that had more to do with the level of opposition it faced on its most recent road trip (against Atlanta and New York). Here, the Mercury will be up against a Chicago squad that allows just 76 points per game on 41.1% shooting on the road this season. Note that Phoenix could be without Brittney Griner for this game although we'll make the play on the assumption that she will play. The Sky lit up the Storm for 107 points last time out noting that the last time (and only other time this season) they scored over 100 points in a game they followed it up with a contest total totaled just 156 points. Take the under (10*). |
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08-31-21 | Yankees -1.5 v. Angels | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
A.L. Run-Line Game of the Month. My selection is on New York -1.5 runs over Los Angeles at 9:35 pm et on Tuesday. I love the way the Yankees are set up to bounce back from last night's series-opening loss here in Anaheim on Tuesday. In fact, New York has dropped three games in a row following an extended winning streak. Don't expect the Yanks losing ways to continue here as they look to tee off on Anaheim starter Jaime Barria. He's by no means a long-term solution in the Angels starting rotation. He's been used out of necessity this season, posting a 4.50 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. While those numbers aren't all bad, the wheels have come off lately as he has recorded a 9.72 ERA and 2.52 WHIP over his last three outings, covering a span of just 8 1/3 innings of work. Barria isn't fooling anyone right now, topping out at five strikeouts over his last seven starts. It's not as if the Halos bullpen is likely to rescue Barria here, noting that the L.A. relief corps has posted a collective 5.49 ERA and 1.45 WHIP over their last seven games. Jameson Taillon will take the ball for New York. Like Barria, he has struggled lately. However, he faces an Angels lineup that has been a true 'feast-or-famine' group lately. The Yankees check in 7-5 in Taillon's 12 road starts this season. The big difference here is that behind Taillon is a capable Yankees bullpen that has posted a 3.46 ERA and 1.17 WHIP with an incredible 24:7 save conversion ratio on the road this season. There's reason to believe the Yankees bats can eventually stretch out the winning margin in this one so we'll lay the extra run. Take New York -1.5 runs (10*). |
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08-30-21 | Brewers -125 v. Giants | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
N.L. Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Milwaukee over San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Monday. |
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08-29-21 | Calgary v. Winnipeg OVER 44 | Top | 16-18 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
CFL West Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Calgary and Winnipeg at 7 pm et on Sunday. I think we can still 'buy low' when it comes to the Stampeders offense as most are still setting low expectations in the absence of star QB Bo Levi Mitchell. Backup Jake Maier stepped in and did an admirable job in a 28-22 win over the Alouettes last week. In general, the Stamps offense looked as good as it has all season, with RB Ka'Deem Carey rushing for two touchdowns and two wide receivers posting 100+ yard receiving days. While the Blue Bombers vaunted defensive front will pose a serious challenge, the Stamps offensive line has been exceeding expectations, ranking second in the league in fewest sacks allowed, and I expect it to hold up well here also. Note that the Bombers two top pass rushers, Willie Jefferson and Jackson Jeffcoat continue to deal with nagging injuries. Both should play but they're still not at 100%. Meanwhile, the Bombers offense will get a major boost with the return of RB Andrew Harris. With their ground game struggling, his return should really open things up for QB Zach Collaros and the offense. The Stamps defense has faced a favorable early season schedule but has allowed six offensive touchdowns in three games. Take the over (10*). |
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08-29-21 | Diamondbacks v. Phillies UNDER 9 | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 40 m | Show |
MLB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Arizona and Philadelphia at 1:05 pm et on Sunday. Ranger Suarez has been about as reliable as it gets for the Phillies, stepping into the rotation at the start of the month and allowing just five earned runs in 21 1/3 innings of work. His three previous home starts have totaled just 8, 3 and 4 runs. Meanwhile, D'Backs veteran starter Madison Bumgarner has enjoyed a nice comeback season and enters this outing having worked at least six innings in six consecutive starts. His last three road outings have totaled just 5, 2 and 6 runs. The left-hander has posted an impressive 1.05 WHIP in 10 road starts this season. The less said about the two bullpens the better, but I'm not sure they'll be asked to do too much in this one, and neither lineup has really been tearing the cover off the ball (note that Friday's wild 7-6 extra innings game was 4-4 after nine innings). Weather conditions aren't nearly as favorable for hitters at Citizens Bank Park as they were earlier in the week. Take the under (10*). |
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08-28-21 | UTEP -9 v. New Mexico State | Top | 30-3 | Win | 100 | 465 h 11 m | Show |
College Football Game of the Month. My selection is on UTEP minus the points over New Mexico State at 9:30 pm et on Saturday August 28th. C-USA media members have the UTEP Miners slated to finish in last place in the West Division this season. I believe that the potential is there for a much better campaign, however. The Miners haven't had much recent success to boast about. They've gone a miserable 5-27 going back to the 2018 season but three of those victories came in eight games last season. Here, they have an excellent opportunity to get off to a fast start with this road tilt against New Mexico State followed by their home opener against FCS squad Bethune-Cookman. This is a team that has lofty goals this season, believing it can exceed expectations and reach a Bowl game. Note that UTEP was favored in only three games all of last season and won all three by an average margin of 14 points. UTEP returns the bulk of the squad that won those three games last season. On offense, there's finally some continuity with QB Gavin Hardison back under center. In the backfield, the potential is there for a breakout campaign from RB Deion Hankins who returns after rushing for nearly 600 yards and nine scores as a redshirt freshman last season. The Miners also have an excellent 1-2 punch at wide receiver with Jacob Cowing and Justin Garrett. There are questions on the offensive line after a shaky 2020 campaign, but with plenty of experience returning there's reason for optimism. Defensively, the Miners draw a favorable matchup against an Aggies offense that has been punchless over the last couple of seasons (keep in mind New Mexico State didn't play a single game in 2020 due to Covid). UTEP has a true star on the outside in DE Praise Amaewhule, who finds himself on the Bednarik Award Watch List for the nation's best defensive player. He could quickly climb up the NFL Draft board should he repeat or improve on his incredible 2020 performance. UTEP's secondary could be leaky early on, but this is a matchup where I expect its pass rush to give the Aggies little time to get the football down the field for big plays. The Miners are set on the defensive line and should devour a New Mexico State offensive line that lacks continuity and will need time to come together as a unit. There's a QB competition ongoing for New Mexico State with junior Jonah Johnson trying to hold off Weston Eget. Eget was more effective in the team's first of two Spring games against non-FBS opponents but injured his ankle early on and missed crucial practice time as a result. Johnson struggled against the likes of Dixie State and Tarleton State and I question how he will perform should he get the nod against the Miners vaunted pass rush here. While the Aggies should have a solid backfield, again this is a tough opening matchup against a good defensive line. Defensively, the Aggies allowed their two FCS opponents in the Spring to rush for over five yards per carry. Meanwhile, they failed to come up with a single interception. While I realize they've had plenty of practice time since then and those two results don't tell the entire story, this is a defensive unit that is unrecognizable compared to the 2019 edition and I simply feel it's going to take time to round into form. Take UTEP (10*). |
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08-28-21 | Hawaii v. UCLA UNDER 70.5 | Top | 10-44 | Win | 100 | 218 h 21 m | Show |
CFB on ESPN TV Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Hawaii and UCLA at 3:30 pm et on Saturday August 28th. This is being pegged as a shootout. That's not surprising considering Hawaii is known for its high-flying offensive ways (even if that hasn't necessarily held true in recent years) and UCLA has plenty of returning talent under the guidance of offensive guru Chip Kelly. I believe the total will prove to be too high, however, as the two teams could surprise defensively. Hawaii returns last year's defense virtually intact. Expect defensive-minded head coach Todd Graham to treat this as an excellent 'measuring stick game' right out of the gates against a quality UCLA offense. The Rainbow Warriors boast speed all over the defensive backfield and should be able to do a good job of limiting big plays down the field in this one. They're also well-positioned to minimize UCLA's effectiveness on the ground with a substantial defensive line led by NT Blessman Ta'ala. LB Darius Muasau is by no means a household name but he's a stud linebacker that led the team in tackles a year ago, including 4.5 sacks and 9.5 tackles for loss. Offensively, I expect Hawaii QB Chevan Cordeiro to do enough running to help keep drives alive, moving the chains and ultimately shortening this game by keeping the clock moving. Cordeiro isn't going to wow anyone with his arm and I don't expect him to be put in too many high-risk situations against an opportunistic UCLA defense here. Instead, look for him to take what the Bruins give him and rely on steady RB Calvin Turner to pound away on early downs. The Bruins have to replace their leading rusher from a year ago but outside of that, their offense is loaded. I simply question whether we'll see them hit the ground running right out of the gates in this non-conference Week 0 affair. QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson has been dealing with an undisclosed injury but is expected to be good to go for the season-opener. The ceiling is sky-high for this offense but as I mentioned, Hawaii has a capable defense that could make life at least a little bit difficult here. Defensively, UCLA loses Osa Odighizuwa to the NFL but returns the bulk of the defense that finished last season sixth in the Pac-12 in total defense and second in scoring defense. This is a season-opening matchup it can handle but I do think the Bruins could end up on the field a little more than they would like should the Warriors pound away as I would expect them to. That only serves to help our cause with the potential for long, clock-churning drives. Take the under (10*). |
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08-27-21 | Colts v. Lions OVER 31.5 | Top | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 60 h 30 m | Show |
NFLX Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Indianapolis and Detroit a 7 pm et on Friday. With the Colts being known for their stout defense and the Lions pegged as potentially the worst team in football this season, not to mention coming off consecutive losses to open the preseason, it's not all that surprising that we're dealing with a low total in this 'meaningless' preseason tilt. I think there's reason to expect some offensive fireworks, however. Indianapolis is preparing to face a brutal early season schedule. The Colts won't be able to catch their breath until mid-October when they get a home layup against the Texans. With that in mind, they need to stay healthy, particularly on the defensive side of the football, coming out of this final preseason tilt. For that reason I wouldn't expect to see much of their defensive starters. That opens the door for the Lions to perhaps go into the season with a good feeling as they try to notch their first victory of the preseason. There is some continuity on the Lions side with David Blough and Tim Boyle having taken all of the snaps here in August game action. That should continue to be the case on Friday and I don't think it's necessarily a bad thing. Keep in mind, we did see a spark from the Detroit offense against the Steelers backups last week as they put up 20 points in the fourth quarter. The Colts have thrown the football around more than you might expect in the preseason as Jacob Eason and Sam Ehlinger continue to battle it out for the Week 1 starting job (and eventual backup to Carson Wentz, who has returned to practice). After attempting 37 passes in Week 1 of the preseason, Eason and Ehlinger combined to attempt 40 passes in Week 2. Head coach Frank Reich will want to see better execution from the offense here this week after they were held to just 12 points and zero touchdowns in last week's narrow 12-10 win over the Vikings. Indy did move the football in that contest, with the two quarterbacks combining to throw for over 200 yards. Take the over (10*). |
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08-26-21 | Dodgers v. Padres +122 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 60 m | Show |
N.L. West Game of the Year. My selection is on San Diego over Los Angeles at 9:10 pm et on Thursday. No one wants any part of the Padres in this spot but we do. Last night's game was pressure-packed. The 16-inning thriller left the Padres with yet another loss. Now I think that pressure is off. With their Wild Card lead having disappeared, no one is expecting San Diego to recover. However, the opportunity is still there and I expect it to salvage the finale of this series with the Dodgers on Thursday. It's rare that we can back Yu Darvish in an underdog role but that's the case here. He's back on the mound following a stint on the I.L. as he was dealing with back issues. That was clearly evident in his most recent start as he struggled against the lowly D'Backs. I don't believe Darvish would be back unless he felt he was ready and expect him to step in and perform well against the Dodgers, just as he has in three previous starts against them this season (3 ER allowed in 20 IP). The Padres could certainly use this game as a potential turning point, noting that Darvish has posted an 11-3 team record in 14 home starts this season Meanwhile, Los Angeles starter Max Scherzer has been lit up by the Padres twice already this season, allowing 11 ER in 10 2/3 IP. His teams are just 6-6 all-time in his 12 career outings against San Diego including a 2-2 mark in his four starts against the Pads' since 2019. Scherzer has yet to lose in four starts since joining the Dodgers but I think it comes here. Note that San Diego is still 44-28 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 0.5 runs per contest. L.A. has won 15 of its last 17 games - its best stretch of the season. I'll go the contrarian route here. Take San Diego (10*). |
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08-26-21 | Aces -10.5 v. Dream | Top | 78-71 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
WNBA Game of the Year. My selection is on Las Vegas minus the points over Atlanta at 7 pm et on Thursday. Atlanta gave Chicago all it could handle two nights ago but again fell short by six points to remain winless since returning from the Olympic break. Now with a host of key injuries and absences it will be hard-pressed to bounce back as it welcomes what is sure to be a fired up Aces squad coming off a tough loss in Connecticut. Las Vegas has already handled the Dream with ease once this season, rolling to a 118-95 win back on July 4th (we won with the Aces and the 'over' on that night). With A'ja Wilson coming off a ridiculous (and highly uncharacteristic) 1-of-15 shooting performance against an elite Sun squad two nights ago we can expect her to lead the bounce-back charge here. Note that the Aces also got poor performances from generally steady contributors in Jackie Young, Riquna Williams and Kelsey Plum in that loss. The Dream appeared headed for another blowout loss on Tuesday before they caught fire shooting the ball in the second half. That was of course after Chicago had already built up a sizable lead and let down its guard defensively. Things have gone downhill in a hurry for the Dream who didn't exactly start the season on the right foot. A suspension to Chennedy Carter has been key to their regression but the fact is, when you shoot below 41% from the field at home and average fewer than 79 points per game, you're not going to find much success in today's WNBA. Las Vegas has shown the ability to win by margin on the road this season. Two of its last three road victories have come by 16 points or more. Note that the Aces haven't suffered any sort of drop-off in execution defensively on the road this season, holding opponents to 80.3 points per game on 41.6% shooting. I suspect this will be a situation where the Aces clamp down on the Dream offense, ultimately opening things up for their offense to rebound off Tuesday's poor showing. Take Las Vegas (10*). |
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08-25-21 | Tigers v. Cardinals OVER 9 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 38 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Detroit and St. Louis at 1:15 pm et on Wednesday. Both of these teams have been involved in their share of low-scoring games recently but I expect a different story to unfold on Wednesday afternoon in St. Louis. Tarik Skubal will take the ball for Detroit. He's pitched well over his last few starts but note that two of those came at home and the other came on the road against an awful Orioles team. Skubal still owns a less than impressive 5.11 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in nine road starts. Also note that he averages fewer than five innings per start on the road this season. That means we're likely to see plenty of a Tigers bullpen that has posted a collective 5.69 ERA and 1.61 WHIP away from home (entering last night's action). Jon Lester has been a complete train wreck this season and has done little to turn things around since joining the Cardinals. He has recorded a 5.08 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in 12 home starts. Over his last three outings that ERA sits at 5.87 to go along with a 1.70 WHIP. His last 10 starts have resulted in 13, 21, 12, 14, 19, 8, 7, 11, 13 and 12 total runs - good for an average of 13 runs. Take the over (10*). |
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08-24-21 | Nationals v. Marlins OVER 8 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 32 m | Show |
N.L. East Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Miami at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Nationals may simply be playing out the string at this point but they're still hitting, having scored 38 runs over their last six games. I expect them to get involved in another high-scoring affair to open this series in Miami on Tuesday night. Erick Fedde will get the call for the Nats. He owns an ERA of nearly six and a 1.76 WHIP over his last three starts. The 'over' has cashed in each of his last four trips to the hill. Behind Fedde is a struggling Nats bullpen that owns a collective 6.75 ERA and 1.69 WHIP over their last seven contests. Jesus Luzardo will counter for Miami. He's struggled since coming over from Oakland, checking in with an 11.37 ERA and 2.37 WHIP over his last three starts. His last two outings have resulted in 24 and 20 total runs. Behind Fedde is a Marlins bullpen that has posted a collective 9.64 ERA and 1.97 WHIP over their last seven games. With the Marlins getting healthier lineup-wise of late, they won't shy away from a potential slugfest here. Take the over (10*). |
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08-24-21 | Angels v. Orioles OVER 10.5 | Top | 14-8 | Win | 100 | 21 h 15 m | Show |
American League Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Baltimore at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. Dylan Bundy has been marginally better (at times at least) for the Angels this season but here he'll face an Orioles lineup that will look to take their frustrations out on their former teammate - mired in an 18-game losing streak but having faced three straight opponents in the midst of playoff races. It's a different story here as the O's welcome the Angels, who just got swept by the Indians and sit out of the playoff race, two games under .500 on the season. Bundy owns an ugly 7.16 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in 10 nighttime starts this season. He's failed to last through the fifth inning in six of his last seven outings. I do think the O's lineup is better than it has shown in recent weeks and its recent struggles have had more to do with the level of opposition it has faced than anything else (Red Sox, Rays and Braves). Again, I think we see the O's take their frustrations out on the Angels subpar pitching staff on Tuesday. Spenser Watkins will counter for Baltimore. He owns a terrible 9.00 ERA and 2.00 WHIP over his last three starts. In six nighttime outings this season he has recorded a 6.21 ERA and 1.72 WHIP. Meanwhile, the O's bullpen owns a collective 5.31 ERA and 1.37 WHIP at home this season. After being held to just two runs in a three-game sweep at the hands of the Indians look for the Angles to bust out at the plate in this one. Take the over (10*). |
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08-24-21 | Sky v. Dream UNDER 166.5 | Top | 86-79 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
WNBA Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Atlanta at 7 pm et on Tuesday. Both of these teams are reeling right now with Chicago having lost back-to-back games on its home floor and Atlanta having gone 0-4 since returning from the Olympic break and winless over its last eight games. With both coming off subpar defensive efforts look for them to make a concerted effort to rectify that on Tuesday night in Atlanta. Chicago actually checks in as one of the league's better defensive teams but it gave up a whopping 101 points on 54% shooting against Minnesota last time out. The 'under' has cashed in seven of Chicago's 11 road games this season as the Sky have limited opponents to just 41.1% shooting away from home. Note that Atlanta managed to score just 69 points in its most recent game - a 15-point loss to Phoenix - despite getting above-average shooting performances from Crystal Bradford, Odyssey Sims and Aari McDonald (combined 18-of-36 shooting). I would anticipate some offensive regression from the Dream here, noting that they're without two of their best offensive players in Chennedy Carter (suspension) and Cheyenne Parker (personal). Chicago got monster offensive performances from Allie Quigley and Courtney Vandersloot in its loss to Seattle on Sunday as the duo combined to pour in 54 points. Note that Vandersloot had previously been held to just six points combined in the Sky's first two games after the Olympic break. The 'under' has gone 7-4 in Dream home games this season with those contests totaling an average of less than 164 points. The last time these two teams hooked up here in Atlanta they combined to score just 162 points back in May. That was with the two teams getting to the free throw line a whopping 60 times. Take the under (10*). |
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08-24-21 | Mariners v. A's -140 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -140 | 8 h 22 m | Show |
MLB Daytime Game of the Year. My selection is on Oakland over Seattle at 3:35 pm et on Tuesday. The A's have now dropped three games in a row after losing the opener of this brief two-game series by a 5-3 score last night. Expect them to bounce back on Tuesday afternoon. Chris Flexen will get the call for the Mariners. While the M's are 7-3 in his 10 road outings this season, he hasn't pitched particularly well, recording a 4.92 ERA and 1.48 WHIP. After a stretch that saw him give up just one home run in five starts, he's now allowed at least one long ball in four of his last five trips to the hill. The A's will be getting their third look at Flexen this season having had plenty of previous success, scoring seven earned runs on 13 hits while walking three times and striking out only four in 11 1/3 innings of work. Of course, Oakland has gotten even stronger offensively since the trade deadline which is notable as Flexen hasn't faced the A's since July 22nd. The Mariners bullpen hasn't been great on the road this season, entering last night's action sporting a collective 4.76 ERA and 1.37 WHIP with a whopping 16 blown saves. Cole Irvin issued a season-high four walks while matching a season-low with only one strikeout in his most recent start. Still, he managed to work six innings in an eventual 5-4 win over a playoff-bound White Sox club, on the road no less. Now he's back home where he owns a solid 3.72 ERA and 1.18 WHIP this season. Note that the A's haven't dropped an Irvin home start since back on May 30th against the Angels. They've reeled off five straight wins with Irvin on the hill here at the Coliseum since. Speaking of pitching at home, the A's bullpen entered last night's action having converted 16 saves while blowing only five here at home this season. Currently on the outside looking in (by a game) in the A.L. Wild Card hunt and with their division title hopes fading, look for the A's to earn a much-needed victory on Tuesday afternoon. Take Oakland (10*). |
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08-23-21 | Jaguars v. Saints OVER 39 | Top | 21-23 | Win | 100 | 11 h 60 m | Show |
NFLX First Half Total of the Year. My selection is on the first half 'over' between Jacksonville and New Orleans at 8 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams are coming off losses in their respective preseason openers. Jags rookie QB Trevor Lawrence admitted he felt some nerves in his debut and it showed as he took a couple of early sacks and showed few flashes of the dominant college quarterback that warranted the number one overall pick in this year's draft. I expect him to settle down and turn in a much better performance on the fast track at the Superdome on Monday night. Lawrence will see the bulk of the early action under center but we should see Gardner Minshew get some first half reps as well. By playing the first half only we avoid getting too deep into the Jags QB rotation which also includes C.J. Beathard and Jake Luton - both threw touchdown passes late in last week's loss to the Browns but I wouldn't count on a repeat effort tonight. The Jags defense didn't look good against the Browns. Cleveland moved the football up and down the field at will, despite resting most of its key offensive starters. Jacksonville was actually fortunate to only give up 13 first half points in its preseason opener as the Browns lacked some execution at the end of drives. The damage could have been much worse. Here, I expect the Saints to make a concerted effort to push the football down the field with Jameis Winston expected to get the start under center. We saw Winston get more comfortable and start taking some deep shots as the game went on against the Ravens last week and I expect to see carry-over from that gameplan here. While this is a relatively high first half total by preseason standards, I don't think it's been set high enough. By playing the first half only we'll look to avoid putting our trust in the hands of Saints possible practice squad QB Trevor Siemian, who is expected to see plenty of second half action. Take the first half over (10*). |
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08-23-21 | White Sox -107 v. Blue Jays | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
A.L. First Five Innings Game of the Month. My selection is on Chicago over Toronto first five innings at 7:05 pm et on Monday. The White Sox didn't have a banner weekend in St. Petersburg, dropping two of three games against the Rays. I do expect them to get off to a strong start at the very least against the struggling Blue Jays on Monday. Lance Lynn will take the ball for Chicago. He's having another terrific season and checks in with a 2.27 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in eight road starts. While he'll be pitching on just four days' rest on Monday that's not a major concern as he's worked just nine innings combined in his last two starts. Lynn didn't get a victory in his lone previous start against Toronto this season but did pitch well, allowing just one earned run over seven innings, striking out nine along the way. By playing the first five innings only we'll look to avoid a White Sox bullpen that hasn't had a day off in a week-and-a-half. Alek Manoah will counter for Toronto. He labored through just three innings while allowing six earned runs in his most recent start. He'll be dealing with quite a bit of pressure in this start as the Blue Jays desperately need a strong outing to get back on track and keep their slim playoff hopes alive. I expect the White Sox to take advantage of facing Manoah for the second time this season. While he was on the mound for a 6-2 Jays win in Chicago back in early June, it's not as if he was dominant, striking out only four while allowing four hits and two walks over five innings. Take Chicago first five innings (10*). |
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08-22-21 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | Top | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 13 m | Show |
N.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and Colorado at 3:10 pm et on Sunday. This game has slugfest written all over it on a hot day in Denver with the wind blowing out to right field. Off a low-scoring affair last night, look for a different story to unfold here. Taylor Widener takes the ball for the D'Backs. He has allowed at least one home run in six straight starts and three in his last two outings, spanning just 10 innings of work. Note that he hasn't lasted beyond the fifth inning in any of his last seven starts. The Arizona bullpen has of course been awful all season, posting a 5.40 ERA and 1.54 WHIP on the road (entering last night's action). Jon Gray will counter for Colorado. He's been shaky since the trade deadline passed (his name was swirling around plenty of rumors at the time). He enters this start sporting an ERA north of six and a WHIP over 1.70 over his last three outings. While the Colorado bullpen has been better lately, it still owns an ugly 5.45 ERA and 1.50 WHIP at home this season. Take the over (10*). |
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08-21-21 | Falcons v. Dolphins OVER 36.5 | Top | 17-37 | Win | 100 | 58 h 58 m | Show |
NFLX Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Miami at 7 pm et on Saturday. We're being afforded a relatively low total to work with here thanks to 'meaningless' Week 1 preseason results. The Falcons were absolutely crushed by the Titans by a 23-3 score, at home no less. It certainly wasn't a great look for new head coach Arthur Smith - the former Titans offensive coordinator. Let's not get too excited by that ugly performance though. We didn't see the Falcons offensive starters in that game. It remains to be seen whether the starters suit up for this one but I would expect to see at least some of the Falcons stars to at the very least make a cameo appearance in this one. Regardless, I think Atlanta has enough depth on offense to put up a much better performance than we saw last week. Projected third-string QB Feleipe Franks did do a good job of moving the football on the ground, racking up 76 rushing yards against Tennessee. Here, I think we'll see Smith dial up the offense a little with a more pass-heavy attack as the Falcons use this as a measuring-stick game against a good Dolphins defense. Miami's offense got off to a fine start against the Bears last Saturday but fizzled in the second half in a 17-13 loss. That certainly wasn't an ideal spot to unleash the offense in a tough matchup on the road against a quality Bears defense. It's a different story here as Miami prepares to face a middle of the road Falcons defense. Head coach Brian Flores guided his team to a 3-1 record in his preseason debut as a head coach in 2019. That included a 34-27 victory over these same Falcons in their preseason home opener. Flores knows what he has on defense. What he needs to find out here is what he has offensively, and like Smith, I look for him to dial up a more aggressive offensive gameplan in an effort to figure out where his team stands, especially with QB Tua Tagovailoa taking over the reins as the starter this year. With this total sitting where it is, we don't need an offensive shootout to cash this ticket. That warrants us stepping up to our top rating. Take the over (10*). |
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08-21-21 | Winnipeg v. Toronto OVER 43.5 | Top | 23-30 | Win | 100 | 56 h 52 m | Show |
CFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Winnipeg and Toronto at 4 pm et on Saturday. We saw a low-scoring game between these two teams in Winnipeg last week - that's been the norm in CFL action so far this season, largely due to the absence of a preseason. Here, with both teams having two games under their belts, I look for them to perform better offensively in what I believe will be a high-scoring contest in Toronto. The Argos are expected to turn to QB Nick Arbuckle under center. He was injured to start the season. I think the plan always was for him to take over the reins from McLeod Bethel-Thompson. After showing some life in Week 1, we saw very little from the Toronto offense last week. That obviously had a lot to do with the elite nature of the Blue Bombers defense but also spoke to Bethel-Thompson's ineffectiveness. RB John White could miss this game due to a hip injury but if he does, that should only force Toronto to draw up more passing plays for Arbuckle, which might not be a bad thing as White ended up banging his head against the wall all night against a stout Bombers defensive front last week. Winnipeg is expected to get some help offensively with the possible return of RB Andrew Harris and WR Darvin Adams. Regardless whether one or both of those star players return, we can expect further progression from the Bombers offense after QB Zach Collaros turned in his strongest performance of the season against the Argos last week. Toronto does have an improved defense but both Charleston Hughes and Henoc Muamba have missed practice time this week and are questionable to play on Saturday. I think it's only a matter of time before we see a breakout performance from the Winnipeg offense, and this could very well be the spot as it makes the necessary adjustments after seeing the Argos new-look defense for the first time last Friday. With this being the lowest total on the Week 2 board, we don't need an offensive shootout to cash this 'over' ticket. I have the Bombers approaching 30 points in this one while the Argos should be able to do enough to help the final score up and 'over' the very reasonable number. Take the over (10*). |
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08-20-21 | Chiefs -2 v. Cardinals | Top | 17-10 | Win | 100 | 37 h 8 m | Show |
NFLX TV Game of the Year. My selection is on Kansas City minus the points over Arizona at 8 pm et on Friday. I'll lay the short number with the Chiefs as they travel to Arizona to face the Cardinals in front of a national ESPN audience on Friday. Both of these teams were victorious by identical 19-16 scores last week as the Chiefs defeated the Niners in San Francisco and the Cardinals took down the Cowboys here at home. It's worth noting that Arizona's victory came thanks to a pair of Matt Prater field goals inside the game's final two minutes (foiling our play on the Cowboys plus the points). Kyler Murray is expected to see his first action of the preseason for the Cardinals. He has already stated that he 'hates the preseason' and puts virtually no stock in what happens on the field. With WRs DeAndre Hopkins and A.J. Green and RB James Conner on and off the field due to various ailments, he may not have his full compliment of weapons during what should be a brief appearance in the first half on Friday. Also note that depth WR Andy Isabella will miss this game due to Covid protocols. Behind Murray in the QB rotation is the capable but underwhelming duo of Colt McCoy and Chris Streveler. Note that the Cards went 1-3 in the preseason in their first year under head coach Kliff Kingsbury back in 2019. So they're in uncharted territory in a sense as they look for their second consecutive preseason win here. Chiefs head coach Andy Reid has said that he will play his starters for most, if not all of the first half on Friday. While it remains to be seen whether that means we'll see a full half from QB Pat Mahomes (probably not), I still think we're going to see Kansas City put forth a fairly serious effort (by preseason standards) as they look to go 2-0 on the road. The Chiefs offense will be facing a Cardinals defense that won't have the services of J.J. Watt or Chandler Jones. Kansas City doesn't have a top-flight QB rotation by any means but I do like the veteran presence of Chad Henne and Shane Buechele did show he can move the ball down the field with his arm and his legs in last week's victory (8-of-11 passing and three runs for 13 yards). I simply feel we'll see a little better execution from the Chiefs for four quarters than we will from the Cardinals as Kansas City is a road favorite for a reason. Take Kansas City (10*). |
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08-19-21 | Edmonton Elks +4.5 v. BC | Top | 21-16 | Win | 100 | 38 h 25 m | Show |
CFL Game of the Month. My selection is on Edmonton plus the points over B.C. at 10 pm et on Thursday. The Elks are off to a very disappointing 0-2 start, especially considering their first two games were played at home, against seemingly inferior East Division opponents no less. Expect them to bounce back on Thursday as they hit the road for the first time this season and play their first division game. In Week 1, it was all about a lack of execution for Edmonton as it marched up and down the field but simply couldn't finish drives with touchdowns against the RedBlacks. Last week, the Elks were simply overmatched by an Alouettes squad that came out firing on all cylinders on both sides of the football, but particularly on defense as they were all over Elks QB Trevor Harris all night long. I think the case can certainly be made that the Elks overlooked the Als. They won't make the same mistake against the Lions, who are coming off an upset win on the road against the Stampeders. The news has now come out that Stamps QB Bo Levi Mitchell has a broken fibula and all indications are that he was playing hurt in last week's game against B.C. Credit for the Lions for coming up with the win, but let's not get too excited. They're still dealing with injury issues to starting QB Mike Reilly with reports from practice this week indicating that he is still having trouble pushing the football down the field. While he is expected to start on Thursday night you can take that news with a grain of salt as we've seen plenty of mystery around the QB position in B.C. already this season. While the Lions offensive line held up well last week, I still think it's an area of concern with big offseason acquisition Ryker Matthews sidelined due to a head injury. He isn't expected to be cleared to play this Thursday night. This one really comes down to whether we can trust the Elks offense. If Edmonton is going to turn things around, that's the area that needs to improve the most and I'm confident we'll see just that on the fast track at B.C. Place on Thursday. This is an ultra-talented group led by veteran QB Trevor Harris and WR Greg Ellingson. After being held to just one catch for one yard last week, I believe we can bank on a big bounce-back performance from Ellingson in particular. Harris was given no time to operate against the Als retooled pass rush but should find the going a little easier against the Lions this week. Take Edmonton (10*). |
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08-19-21 | Marlins v. Reds OVER 8 | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -114 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
MLB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Cincinnati at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. The Marlins are still undecided as to who will take the mound for the opener of this four-game series in Cincinnati. Regardless who does, I'm anticipating a relatively high-scoring affair. Cincinnati is coming off consecutive low-scoring games against the Cubs after an offensive explosion on Monday. Weather conditions have been favoring the hitters all week at already hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark and there's more of the same in the forecast for Thursday. Luis Castillo will make his third straight starts on just four days' rest. He's been laboring lately, allowing 11 earned runs on 12 hits over his last two outings, spanning just 10 innings of work. He's been tagged for at least a home run in four consecutive outings. Note that his last two starts against the Marlins have totaled 14 and 13 runs. Here, he'll be facing a Marlins club that is as close to full strength as it has been all season and is coming off a three-game series against Atlanta that saw 36 total runs scored. Behind Castillo is a Reds bullpen that hasn't had a day off since August 2nd. Not surprisingly they've struggled with an ERA north of six and a 1.160 WHIP over their last seven games. Worse still, the Marlins 'pen has posted a collective 8.77 ERA and 1.95 WHIP over their last seven contests. Take the over (10*). |
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08-18-21 | Brewers v. Cardinals UNDER 7 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
N.L. Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and St. Louis at 7:45 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a pitcher's duel between Corbin Burnes and Adam Wainwright to open this series last night and I expect more of the same as Freddy Peralta goes up against Jack Flaherty on Wednesday. Peralta checks in sporting a 2.60 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 10 road starts this season with the 'under' cashing in six of those games. Better still, he owns a 1.88 ERA and 0.72 WHIP in 11 nighttime starts. Note that he'll be facing a Cardinals lineup that is missing a couple of key bats in Paul DeJong (back) and Dylan Carlson (wrist). Jack Flaherty made a triumphant return to the Cards rotation last Friday night as he tossed six shutout innings against the Royals (we won with the 'under'). Flaherty has made four home starts this season, recording an incredible 1.44 ERA and 0.72 WHIP. He's faced the Brewers once this season, allowing just four hits over six shutout innings in a 2-0 victory back in May. Both bullpens are reliable enough to trust in this one. Much like last night's affair, I expect this one to have a 'playoff-type' feel and prove low-scoring once again. Take the under (10*). |
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08-17-21 | Pirates v. Dodgers OVER 9 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
MLB o/u Premier Play. My selection is on the 'over' between Pittsburgh and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a low-scoring game between these two teams last night as the Dodgers prevailed by a 2-1 score. I expect a much different story to unfold on Tuesday. Wil Crowe will take the ball for Pittsburgh. He's in a tough spot here, noting that he has posted a 6.10 ERA and 1.54 WHIP in eight road starts this season, most recently getting lit up for three home runs in his last road outing in Cincinnati. Dodger Stadium could very well play a bit like Great American Ballpark tonight with the wind blowing out to left-center and I expect the homer-happy Dodgers to take advantage of Crowe here. Note that Crowe has been tagged for six home runs in his last three road starts, covering a span of just 14 1/3 innings of work. Behind Crowe is a subpar Pirates bullpen that owns a 5.22 ERA and 1.37 WHIP on the road this season (entering last night's action). David Price will get the nod for the Dodgers. He'll once again be on a short leash here, having yet to last more than 5 2/3 innings in a start this season. He hasn't fared particularly well in his last two home starts, allowing four home runs in 11 innings. With the Dodgers bullpen having not enjoyed a day off in over a week, with some extra innings affairs in the mix, there's reason to believe that the Pirates can scratch together some offense tonight. Note that they were threatening virtually all game long last night but simply couldn't break through. It's been feast or famine for the Buccos at the plate lately but worth noting that they're only a couple of days removed from exploding for 14 runs against the Brewers on Saturday. Take the over (10*). |
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08-17-21 | Mystics v. Aces OVER 170 | Top | 83-93 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
WNBA Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Las Vegas at 10 pm et on Tuesday. This is a rematch of Sunday's wild 84-83 victory for the Aces. That game stayed 'under' the total and affords us a lower posted total to work with here on Tuesday. I believe it's the wrong move. It took a while, but the Aces got on track offensively after the long Olympic break, scoring 29 points in the fourth quarter of Sunday's victory. Now I expect to see plenty of carry-over from that strong finish here. Note that the Aces average north of 93 points per game at home this season on just shy of 49% shooting. There's certainly room for improvement after Sunday's 84-point effort. I do think the Mystics will be along for the ride in what should be an up-tempo affair on Tuesday night. They'll be in a foul mood after blowing a 14-point lead entering the fourth quarter on Sunday. With Elena Delle Donne still sidelined, I think the Mystics remain a bit underrated offensively with the duo of Ariel Atkins and Myisha Hines-Allen really stepping up as the season has progressed. Washington is unlikely to go away quietly in this one and that should result in a high-scoring affair in Las Vegas. Take the over (10*). |
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08-16-21 | Indians v. Twins UNDER 10 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
MLB Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Minnesota at 8:10 pm et on Monday. Neither Cal Quantrill or Griffin Jax are household names, but both have been pitching exceptionally well lately and I'm anticipating a relatively low-scoring affair featuring the two young starters on Monday. The Indians are of course coming off an 11-run outburst in Detroit yesterday. Performances like that have been few and far between for this fading club lately though, as they had been held to four runs or less in four of their last five games prior to yesterday's contest. Better than their offensive production was the fact that starter Triston McKenzie gave them eight strong innings, meaning only closer Emmanuel Clase (who hadn't pitched since August 10th) was used out of the bullpen, giving that group a much-needed rest (Cleveland hasn't had a day off since July 26th). Cal Quantrill is locked in for the Indians right now having allowed two earned runs or less in six consecutive starts. He's worked at least into the sixth inning in five straight and seven of his last eight outings. He enters this outing sporting a 3.14 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in eight nighttime starts, with the 'under' going 5-2-1 in those contests. Griffin Jax was shaky in his big league debut back in early July but has settled down considerably since, allowing just six earned runs in 20 1/3 innings over his last four outings. In his most recent start, Jax worked a career high six innings and struck out 10 against a red hot White Sox lineup. Behind Jax is an improving Twins bullpen that entered yesterday's action sporting a collective 3.72 ERA and 1.10 WHIP with three saves converted and none blown over their last seven games. Take the under (10*). |
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08-15-21 | Dodgers v. Mets UNDER 8 | Top | 14-4 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
MLB Sunday Night Baseball First Five Innings Total of the Year. My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between Los Angeles and New York at 7:05 pm et on Sunday. After consecutive extra innings affairs, we'll look to avoid the bullpens in this one and play the 'first five innings' under the total. Max Scherzer will get his third start with the Dodgers after his most recent outing was cut short due to rain. Scherzer should have a live arm after working just 3 1/3 innings before the rain moved in earlier this week against the Phillies. Scherzer has not surprisingly pitched well in Dodger Blue, allowing just two earned runs while striking out 16 and walking just one in 10 1/3 innings of work since joining Los Angeles. He checks in sporting a 3.00 ERA and 1.03 WHIP on the road this season. The Mets are hoping Carlos Carrasco can pick them up after back-to-back one-run extra inning losses. After pitching reasonably well in his first two starts of the season he had a rough outing last time out. It was really the story of a bad start as he gave up consecutive singles before Juan Soto touched him up for a three-run home run to start the game. In limited work this season, Carrasco has posted an impressively-low 29.0% hard-hit ball percentage to go along with a 48.4% ground ball percentage. I look for him to bounce back here. Take the first five innings under (10*). |
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08-15-21 | Yankees v. White Sox -174 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -174 | 7 h 3 m | Show |
MLB Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Chicago over New York at 2:10 pm et on Sunday. A letdown wasn't all that surprising after the White Sox beat the Yankees in thrilling fashion in the 'Field of Dreams' game on Thursday. New York got the better of Chicago last night but I look for the White Sox to answer back on Sunday afternoon. Nestor Cortes Jr. will take the ball for New York. He's pitched well in five starts this season, however he has allowed three home runs in his last two outings, covering a span of just 10 2/3 innings and will pitch on just four days' rest on Sunday. The White Sox are obviously a tough opponent, noting they entered yesterday's action 19 games over .500 at home this season, outscoring the opposition by 1.2 runs per game. Note that the Yankees bullpen entered last night's game having logged a whopping 34 innings over their last seven games and then proceeded to work another five in a 10-inning affair. While the New York relief corps has held up well, this is not an ideal spot. Lucas Giolito will counter for Chicago. He's coming off a stellar eight-inning performance against the Twins, allowing just one earned run. Here, he'll be pitching on a full five days' rest. He owns a solid 3.73 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 11 home starts this season. A stark contrast to the Yankees bullpen, the White Sox 'pen has worked among the fewest innings in baseball this season, a total of 369 entering last night's action. They've been at their best in day games this season, recording a collective 3.71 ERA and 1.27 WHIP with 14 saves converted and only six blown. Take Chicago (10*). |
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08-14-21 | Seahawks v. Raiders OVER 37 | Top | 7-20 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 18 m | Show |
NFLX Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and Oakland at 9 pm et on Saturday. It's easy to forget that both of these teams have relatively high-scoring preseason track records after last year's exhibition schedule was scrapped entirely. That's not a real surprise as neither defense is great to begin with but get into the second and third levels in the depth chart and there are some real holes. There's a reason that this is one of the highest posted totals on the Week 1 NFLX board. Both sides do boast significant depth at the skill positions on offense. Perhaps one of the lone exceptions is the wide receiver position for Seattle. With that being said, that should lead to the Seahawks airing it out a little more than you might expect in this one as they evaluate the wide receivers that are battling for the number three spot behind DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. I like the QB rotations in this one and on the fast track at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, I'm anticipating a fairly high-scoring contest between these NFC-AFC West Division counterparts on Saturday night. Take the over (10*). |
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08-14-21 | Montreal v. Edmonton Elks OVER 46.5 | Top | 30-13 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 58 m | Show |
CFL o/u Premier Play. My selection is on the 'over' between Montreal and Edmonton at 7 pm et on Saturday. We've seen plenty of low-scoring games to open this CFL season - likely a product of their being no preseason this year. Here, I do think we'll see a little more offense as the Elks already have a game under their belts while the Als had an extra week of practice, and I expect them to be considerably stronger offensively than defensively once again. The Als certainly improved their pass rush in the offseason, with their big acquisition being former Elk Almondo Sewell. However, I do feel that Elks QB Trevor Harris should be able to get the ball out quickly enough to his talented group of wide receivers to find some offensive success in this one. There was plenty of rust last week as the Elks moved the football but couldn't finish drives with touchdowns. Against a weak Als secondary, there's reason to believe some of those field goal drives will turn into touchdowns here. The Als offense is virtually intact from 2019. There is top talent at all the skill positions, led by QB Vernon Adams Jr. and RB William Stanback. While the RedBlacks below average offense wasn't able to do much against Edmonton last week, I'm confident we'll see the Als open things up here. Keep in mind, when these two teams last met in the 2019 playoffs, we saw 66 total points scored. Take the over (10*). |
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08-14-21 | Reds v. Phillies OVER 10 | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 9 m | Show |
MLB o/u Premier Play. My selection is on the 'over' between Cincinnati and Philadelphia at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. We missed with the 'over' in this matchup last night but despite a well-pitched game from both starters we still had an opportunity to cash with the potential 'over-clinching' run at the plate in the ninth inning. Here, I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play, noting that weather conditions once again favor the hitters in Philadelphia. Luis Castillo gets the start for Cincinnati. We won with the 'over' in this most recent start - a 9-3 loss in Cleveland on Monday. Castillo will once again pitch on just four days' rest on Saturday - the third time he will have done so in his last four outings. He's now been tagged for five home runs in his last three starts and as I mentioned, conditions should favor the hitters at Citizens Bank Park on Saturday. Castillo checks in sporting a 5.40 ERA and 1.45 WHIP with the 'over' cashing in eight of his 12 road starts this season. Behind Castillo is a Reds bullpen that held up well last night but has generally struggled this season, entering last night's action sporting a collective 4.51 ERA and 1.43 WHIP with 19 saves converted and 13 blown on the road this season. Note that the Reds haven't had a day off since August 2nd. Matt Moore will get a spot start for the Phillies on Saturday. He's generally been awful this season, posting a 9.30 ERA and 2.02 WHIP in five home starts. With Moore averaging just over four innings per start we're likely to see plenty of the Phillies bullpen. Their relief corps has posted a collective 4.82 ERA and 1.46 WHIP with 15 saves converted and nine blown at home this season. Take the over (10*). |
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08-13-21 | Astros -135 v. Angels | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
MLB A.L. West Game of the Year. My selection is on Houston over Los Angeles at 9:35 pm et on Friday. We liked the Astros (understandably) earlier this week at home against the Rockies, cashing with them once in their two-game sweep. Here, I look for them to keep the positive momentum building as they continue to try to fend off the A's atop the A.L. West. Zack Greinke will get the nod for Houston on Friday. He's been terrific on the road this season, posting a 2.67 ERA and 0.95 WHIP with the Astros winning seven of his 10 starts. He's faced the Angels twice already this season, allowing just four earned runs in 14 innings with Houston winning both of those games. Behind Greinke is an Astros bullpen that has already had two days off this week and brings excellent form into this series having recorded a collective 1.35 ERA and 1.09 WHIP over its last seven games. Patrick Sandoval will counter for Los Angeles. He has quietly pitched well this season but has been a little weaker at home, where he has posted a 3.99 ERA and 1.28 WHIP with the Angels losing four of his seven starts. Since turning in his best outing of the season on July 24th in Minnesota, Sandoval has made two starts, allowing 11 hits and a whopping eight walks in just 10 2/3 innings. The Astros last saw the left-hander last August, tagging him for five earned runs on seven hits over just 2 2/3 innings in an 11-4 rout. The Angels bullpen has pitched better lately but is still an unreliable group, entering last night's action sporting a collective 4.80 ERA and 1.45 WHIP with 12 saves converted and nine blown at home this season. Note that they'll be playing their fifth game in the last four days on Friday. Take Houston (10*). |
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08-13-21 | Cardinals v. Royals UNDER 8.5 | Top | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
MLB o/u Premier Play. My selection is on the 'under' between St. Louis and Kansas City at 8:10 pm et on Friday. The Cardinals are coming off a high-scoring affair to close out their series in Pittsburgh yesterday. Keep in mind, weather conditions were favorable for the hitters in that one as it was hot and humid with the wind blowing out. We're likely to see a different story on Friday with conditions favoring the pitchers and I look for Jack Flaherty and Mike Minor to take advantage. Flaherty will of course be returning to the rotation for the first time since May. There's no question he's ready to come back, keeping in mind his injury was actually to his left side rather than his throwing side. All indications are that he could have returned in the series in Pittsburgh but the Cards didn't want him hitting in an N.L. park. Here, he'll be able to focus solely on pitching and should fare well against a Royals club he has owned, facing them once in each of the last three seasons, allowing just two earned runs in 19 innings of work. While Flaherty isn't expected to be on a pitch count for this one, we could still see plenty of the Cardinals bullpen. That's not necessarily a bad thing as they've recorded a collective 2.40 ERA and 1.01 WHIP with three saves converted and none blown in 56 1/3 innings of work in interleague play this season. Entering yesterday's action they had posted a 1.02 WHIP over their last seven contests. Mike Minor will counter for Kansas City. After a long stretch of starting exclusively on four days' rest he has had a little more time off to rest his arm lately. He's struggled in his last couple of starts but both of those came on the road. Here at home, while his ERA north of five leaves a lot to be desired, he has posted a respectable 1.18 WHIP. In his last three home outings he has allowed eight earned runs in 18 2/3 innings. Note that the Cardinals check in averaging just 3.6 runs per game against left-handed pitching this season. Behind Minor is an improving Royals bullpen that enjoyed an off day yesterday and has posted a collective 3.18 ERA and 1.10 WHIP over the last seven games. Like the Cardinals, the Royals 'pen has also thrived in interleague play, recording a 2.56 ERA and 1.20 WHIP with six saves converted and only two blown. Take the under (10*). |
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08-12-21 | Rockies v. Giants UNDER 7.5 | Top | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 15 h 50 m | Show |
N.L. First Five Innings Total of the Month. My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between Colorado and San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Thursday. The Giants just wrapped up a two-game sweep of the lowly D'Backs last night as they pounded away on an awful Arizona pitching staff. I expect they'll find the going a little tougher on Thursday as they face Rockies All-Star starter German Marquez. Meanwhile, the Rockies offense was non-existent in a two-game sweep at the hands of the Astros (they scored a grand total of one run). Expect more of the same against Giants improving young starter Logan Webb. Marquez got roughed up by the Giants in three starts earlier this season, but all three came before the second week of May, when the veteran right-hander was struggling mightily out of the gate. He's settled down since and enters this start sporting a 2.52 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in 14 nighttime starts this season. Over his last two outings he's allowed just six hits and two earned runs in 12 innings of work. Speaking to his consistency, he has worked at least six innings in nine consecutive starts. I like the fact that he'll be pitching on a full five days' rest for the second consecutive start here. By playing the first five innings only we'll look to avoid a Rockies bullpen that is always a disaster waiting to happen, having posted a collective ERA north of five and a WHIP hovering around 1.50. Logan Webb will counter for San Francisco. He's quietly been one of the best pitchers on the Giants elite staff this season. Like Marquez, Webb got off to a shaky start this season and had a couple of rough early outings against these same Rockies. However, since giving up six earned runs in a start against Colorado back on May 5th, Webb has allowed two earned runs or less in nine consecutive outings. He's been outstanding here at home this season, posting a stellar 1.91 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in six starts with all six staying 'under' the total. He's lasted six innings in each of his last three starts and like Marquez, has the benefit of pitching on a full five days' rest here. While the Giants bullpen has held up well, it's certainly worth noting that they haven't had an off day since back on July 26th. I'm not interested in testing the waters with that relief corps here, so we'll instead play the first five innings only. Take the first five innings under (10*). |
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08-12-21 | Blue Jays v. Angels UNDER 8.5 | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
MLB Premier Play. My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Los Angeles at 9:35 pm et on Thursday. We saw a high-scoring game between these two teams last night with the Blue Jays doing most of the heavy lifting. I expect a much different story to unfold on Thursday, however. Jose Berrios will make his third start with his new team. He's been lights out in the first two, allowing just one earned run while striking out 13 in 12 innings of work. He seemed to figure out the Angels lineup pretty well the last time he faced them in July (as a member of the Twins), allowing just two unearned runs over seven innings in a 2-1 loss. Note that Berrios has been at his best at night this season, recording a 2.26 ERA and 0.83 WHIP in 20 starts. Behind Berrios is a Blue Jays bullpen that has been pitching well lately, recording a 2.05 ERA and 1.18 WHIP over their last seven games. They've converted 14 saves while blowing only five on the road this season. Shohei Ohtani will counter for Los Angeles. He'll be making just his fourth start since July 19th and first in over a week so there are no real concerns of a tired arm here. Note that Ohtani has posted a sparkling 1.79 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in nine home starts this season with the 'under' cashing in five of those games. While the Angels bullpen has struggled all season, the good news is Ohtani has lasted at least six innings in six of his last seven starts so we may not need a great deal of help from the Los Angeles relief corps here. Take the under (10*). |
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08-12-21 | Washington Football Team -2 v. Patriots | Top | 13-22 | Loss | -108 | 85 h 31 m | Show |
NFLX Game of the Week. My selection is on Washington minus the points over New England at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. If a road team is favored in Week 1 of the NFL preseason, there's usually a valid reason for it. I believe that statement holds true in this matchup as the Washington Football Team travels to Foxborough to take on the New England Patriots. Washington head coach Ron Rivera sounds like he's taking the preseason seriously right out of the gate this season, indicating his starters are likely to see extended playing time on Thursday night. Whether or not that will actually be the case remains to be seen but regardless, I like the mentality he's building in his team that these preseason games are important. Here's a telling quote from Rivera from the weekend, “I think we have to grow and mature as a football team. I don’t think we can show up and automatically assume we’re gonna pick up where we left off last year.'' Washington boasts a very capable QB rotation with Ryan Fitzpatrick, Taylor Heinecke, Kyle Allen and Colorado U standout Steven Montez. The Patriots have been dealing with a number of injuries over the past week and will simply look to come out of this preseason opener healthy. Yes, rookie QB Mac Jones pushing veteran Cam Newton is a popular storyline at Patriots camp but the reality is Newton will more than likely begin the season as the starter, even though he has reportedly struggled in the early stages of training camp. He'll likely see only a cameo appearance on Thursday while Jones is still learning the offense and has spent more of his time working with the 'ones' at camp, and might struggle should he be on the field with backups on Thursday. Behind Newton and Jones will be veteran Brian Hoyer and Jake Dolegala. That duo inspires little confidence in the Pats ability to find much second half offensive success in this one. Take Washington (10*). |
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08-11-21 | Rays v. Red Sox -115 | Top | 8-20 | Win | 100 | 9 h 38 m | Show |
A.L. East Game of the Year. My selection is on Boston over Tampa Bay at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. It's put up or shut up time for the Red Sox. They lost the opener of this important three-game series against the team they're looking up at in the A.L. East standings. I expect them to answer back on Wednesday night. Josh Fleming will get the start for the Rays. It could be argued that he's been the weak link in the Rays rotation this season as they've only managed to go 5-5 in his 10 outings (that's telling considering they're 24 games over .500 overall). Fleming has made five road starts with the Rays winning only two of those games as he's posted a 6.67 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. While the Red Sox have struggled at times against left-handed pitching this season they've never had any trouble with Fleming, scoring six earned runs on 14 hits in just 9 1/3 innings. That's despite the fact that he's yet to make a start here at Fenway Park, where the weather conditions are expected to be favorable for the hitters again on Wednesday night. Nathan Eovaldi counters for Boston. He's been awful over his last two starts but both of those came on the road. He's been a different pitcher here at home where he's posted a 3.30 ERA and 1.13 WHIP with the Sox winning seven of his 13 starts this season. Note that over his last four home outings he has allowed just two earned runs in 29 innings of work. Eovaldi was roughed up by the Rays in his last start against them less than two weeks ago but that was in St. Petersburg. The last time he faced them here in Boston he allowed just one earned run in seven innings in a 9-2 victory back in April. Behind Eovaldi is a Red Sox bullpen that coughed one up last night but has generally been solid in night games this season, recording a collective 3.44 ERA and 1.30 WHIP with 28 converted saves and only 10 blown. Boston's relief corps has converted 16 of 23 save opportunities at home this season. Take Boston (10*). |
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08-11-21 | Dodgers v. Phillies OVER 9.5 | Top | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
MLB Premier O/U Play. My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. I like the way this one sets up as a high-scoring affair at Citizens Bank Park on Wednesday night. We saw a relatively low-scoring game between these two teams in last night's series-opener but that was to be expected with Max Scherzer and Aaron Nola toeing the rubber. Here, we can anticipate a much different story to unfold. David Price will get the start for Los Angeles. After giving up two home runs in his most recent start (he's allowed two home runs in two of his last three outings) I won't be surprised if he gets caught trying to be a little 'too perfect' on Wednesday and the Phillies certainly have a lineup capable of punishing him for that. Note that Price has posted a 4.70 ERA over his last three outings and has topped out at four strikeouts in seven of his eight starts this season - clearly a shell of his former self. While he's pitched well in his career against Philadelphia, he hasn't faced the Phils since 2018. Here, he'll be pitching on just four days' rest, noting the last time he did that he allowed three earned runs in 5 2/3 innings in a 9-6 loss to the lowly Rockies. The Dodgers bullpen will likely get plenty of work with Price averaging just a shade over four innings per start on the road this season. That relief corps has struggled a bit on the road this season, posting a 3.78 ERA and 1.40 WHIP with 13 saves converted and 10 blown (entering last night's action). Kyle Gibson will get his third start as a member of the Phillies and will pitch on just four days' rest for the second straight outing. While he's pitched well in his last two outings, those came against the Pirates and Mets. He'll be taking a step up in class here, noting that he was tagged for five earned runs including three home runs over just five innings in his last start against the Dodgers last August. Behind Gibson is a Phillies bullpen that entered last night's action sporting a collective 4.80 ERA and 1.42 WHIP with 14 saves converted and nine blown at home this season. Finally, I'll note that weather conditions are expected to favor the hitters on Wednesday (as if often the case this time of year in Philadelphia) with warm temperatures and the wind blowing out to right-center field. Take the over (10*). |
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08-10-21 | Rockies v. Astros OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 31 m | Show |
N.L. Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Colorado and Houston at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Astros had a tough time in a four-game series against the Twins from Thursday-Sunday, scoring only 16 runs in dropping three of four contests. Perhaps that letdown was to be expected after a tough road trip that took them through Seattle, San Francisco and Los Angeles, during which they enjoyed plenty of offensive success. Following a much-needed off day on Monday, I expect them to take their frustrations out on the Rockies on Tuesday, helping this one 'over' the very reasonable total. Jon Gray will get the start for the visiting Rockies. He's quite simply been a different pitcher on the road compared to at home this season, recording a 4.40 ERA and 1.43 WHIP with the 'over' cashing in five of his nine outings. Here, he's in a bit of a tough spot as he makes his fourth start since July 25th. We saw some signs of wear in his most recent start as he was tagged for eight hits in six innings - his highest hit total allowed since May 17th. Gray has had previous success against the Astros but has never faced them here in Houston. Behind Gray is an awful Rockies bullpen that has posted a collective 5.25 ERA and 1.50 WHIP with only eight saves converted and eight blown on the road this season. Over their last seven games they've recorded an ERA north of six. Jake Odorizzi will look to right the ship as he takes the ball for the Astros. He allowed a whopping four home runs in his most recent start and has been tagged for eight long balls in total in his last four outings. The 'over' has cashed in four of his six home starts as he's recorded a 5.56 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. While I do think he can turn things around to a certain extent in this start, it's highly unlikely that he'll shut the Rockies offense down completely. Despite Colorado's miserable road record this season, it has still managed to average north of three runs per game away from Coors Field and I believe that might be all we need from them to help this one 'over' the total. The Astros have a fine bullpen but I will point out that for whatever reason they've struggled in interleague play, posting a collective 6.05 ERA and 1.77 WHIP, albeit with a small sample size of only 44 2/3 innings. Take the over (10*). |
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08-09-21 | Marlins v. Padres -1.5 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 25 h 47 m | Show |
N.L. Run-Line Game of the Month. My selection is on San Diego -1.5 runs over Miami at 10:10 pm et on Monday. We won with the Padres yesterday and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with them as they open a series against the Marlins on Monday night. Zach Thompson will take the ball for Miami. Unfortunately, he's in a tough spot here, making his second consecutive start on just four days' rest. The Marlins are winless in his four road starts this season, where he's averaged just a shade over four innings per start. That spells trouble for an overworked Marlins bullpen that hasn't had a day off since July 29th. Note that Thompson has topped out at three strikeouts or less in three of his last four starts after posting six or more K's in four of his first five outings. Here, he'll be facing the Padres for the second time this season after suffering a 5-2 loss against them at home back on July 23rd. He lasted only five innings in that start, allowing three earned runs on six hits while striking out only three and walking one. Joe Musgrove will counter for San Diego. We actually cashed a ticket fading him in his most recent start in Oakland. That was no fault of his, however, as he allowed only one earned run on two hits over six innings. Now Musgrove is back home where he owns a 2.52 ERA and 1.00 WHIP this season. He faced the Marlins once this season, allowing two earned runs over six innings, also matched up against Thompson in that 5-2 win back on July 23rd. Like the Marlins 'pen, the Padres bullpen has also been overworked this season. However, they've still managed to pitch well, recording a collective 2.65 ERA and 1.10 WHIP with 23 saves converted and only seven blown here at home. Take San Diego -1.5 runs (10*). |
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Sean Murphy ALL Sports Top Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-05-21 | Yankees v. Red Sox UNDER 8 | Top | 2-6 | Push | 0 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
10-04-21 | Raiders v. Chargers OVER 51.5 | Top | 14-28 | Loss | -101 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
10-03-21 | Steelers v. Packers UNDER 45 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 8 h 10 m | Show |
10-03-21 | Seahawks +2.5 v. 49ers | Top | 28-21 | Win | 100 | 31 h 15 m | Show |
10-03-21 | Texans v. Bills -17 | Top | 0-40 | Win | 100 | 48 h 5 m | Show |
10-02-21 | Connecticut +15.5 v. Vanderbilt | Top | 28-30 | Win | 100 | 36 h 57 m | Show |
10-02-21 | Baylor +4 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 14-24 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 18 m | Show |
10-02-21 | Montreal v. Hamilton OVER 48.5 | Top | 23-20 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 42 m | Show |
10-01-21 | Iowa v. Maryland UNDER 46 | Top | 51-14 | Loss | -105 | 103 h 17 m | Show |
09-29-21 | Marlins v. Mets OVER 7.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
09-28-21 | Marlins +1.5 v. Mets | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -160 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
09-27-21 | Eagles v. Cowboys OVER 51.5 | Top | 21-41 | Win | 101 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
09-26-21 | Dolphins +4 v. Raiders | Top | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 18 h 8 m | Show |
09-26-21 | Washington Football Team v. Bills OVER 45.5 | Top | 21-43 | Win | 100 | 47 h 48 m | Show |
09-25-21 | Kentucky v. South Carolina UNDER 48.5 | Top | 16-10 | Win | 100 | 80 h 46 m | Show |
09-25-21 | Ohio +14.5 v. Northwestern | Top | 6-35 | Loss | -107 | 49 h 41 m | Show |
09-25-21 | Texas Tech v. Texas UNDER 61.5 | Top | 35-70 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 17 m | Show |
09-24-21 | Wake Forest v. Virginia UNDER 67 | Top | 37-17 | Win | 100 | 83 h 36 m | Show |
09-22-21 | Mariners v. A's OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
09-21-21 | Twins v. Cubs OVER 8 | Top | 9-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
09-20-21 | Lions v. Packers OVER 48.5 | Top | 17-35 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
09-20-21 | Pirates v. Reds OVER 9 | Top | 5-9 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
09-19-21 | Texans v. Browns -12.5 | Top | 21-31 | Loss | -106 | 75 h 47 m | Show |
09-19-21 | Bills -3 v. Dolphins | Top | 35-0 | Win | 100 | 75 h 31 m | Show |
09-19-21 | Bengals v. Bears -1 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 16 h 33 m | Show |
09-18-21 | Phillies v. Mets OVER 7.5 | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
09-18-21 | Baylor -17.5 v. Kansas | Top | 45-7 | Win | 100 | 31 h 39 m | Show |
09-18-21 | Cincinnati v. Indiana UNDER 50 | Top | 38-24 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 17 m | Show |
09-17-21 | Maryland -7.5 v. Illinois | Top | 20-17 | Loss | -109 | 38 h 51 m | Show |
09-17-21 | Calgary v. Hamilton OVER 43.5 | Top | 17-23 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
09-16-21 | Giants v. Washington Football Team UNDER 40.5 | Top | 29-30 | Loss | -103 | 31 h 40 m | Show |
09-14-21 | Padres v. Giants OVER 9 | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
09-14-21 | Reds -155 v. Pirates | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -155 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
09-13-21 | Red Sox v. Mariners +1.5 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
09-13-21 | Ravens v. Raiders OVER 50 | Top | 27-33 | Win | 100 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
09-12-21 | Storm v. Sparks OVER 154 | Top | 53-81 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
09-12-21 | Bears v. Rams -7.5 | Top | 14-34 | Win | 100 | 14 h 38 m | Show |
09-12-21 | Jaguars -3 v. Texans | Top | 21-37 | Loss | -120 | 19 h 19 m | Show |
09-12-21 | Jets v. Panthers OVER 44.5 | Top | 14-19 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 59 m | Show |
09-12-21 | Steelers v. Bills -6.5 | Top | 23-16 | Loss | -103 | 19 h 37 m | Show |
09-11-21 | Iowa v. Iowa State UNDER 46.5 | Top | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 28 h 25 m | Show |
09-10-21 | Kansas v. Coastal Carolina -26 | Top | 22-49 | Win | 100 | 30 h 31 m | Show |
09-08-21 | Rangers v. Diamondbacks OVER 8.5 | Top | 8-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 24 m | Show |
09-07-21 | Mets v. Marlins OVER 7.5 | Top | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
09-07-21 | Twins v. Indians -133 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -133 | 8 h 30 m | Show |
09-06-21 | Louisville v. Ole Miss OVER 75 | Top | 24-43 | Loss | -112 | 22 h 23 m | Show |
09-06-21 | Mariners v. Astros OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-11 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
09-06-21 | Edmonton Elks v. Calgary OVER 42.5 | Top | 32-20 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
09-05-21 | Rangers +1.5 v. Angels | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 4 h 19 m | Show |
09-05-21 | Aces v. Sky UNDER 169.5 | Top | 84-92 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 26 m | Show |
09-04-21 | New Mexico State v. San Diego State -31 | Top | 10-28 | Loss | -110 | 84 h 52 m | Show |
09-04-21 | Indiana v. Iowa UNDER 45.5 | Top | 6-34 | Win | 100 | 80 h 43 m | Show |
09-04-21 | Temple v. Rutgers -14.5 | Top | 14-61 | Win | 100 | 48 h 24 m | Show |
09-03-21 | Montreal v. Ottawa OVER 42.5 | Top | 51-29 | Win | 100 | 34 h 22 m | Show |
09-03-21 | Indians v. Red Sox UNDER 9 | Top | 5-8 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
09-03-21 | North Carolina -5 v. Virginia Tech | Top | 10-17 | Loss | -110 | 103 h 14 m | Show |
09-02-21 | Brewers v. Giants -161 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 18 h 7 m | Show |
09-01-21 | Astros v. Mariners OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 1 m | Show |
09-01-21 | Netherlands v. Norway OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -102 | 32 h 47 m | Show |
08-31-21 | Sky v. Mercury UNDER 164 | Top | 83-103 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
08-31-21 | Yankees -1.5 v. Angels | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
08-30-21 | Brewers -125 v. Giants | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
08-29-21 | Calgary v. Winnipeg OVER 44 | Top | 16-18 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
08-29-21 | Diamondbacks v. Phillies UNDER 9 | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 40 m | Show |
08-28-21 | UTEP -9 v. New Mexico State | Top | 30-3 | Win | 100 | 465 h 11 m | Show |
08-28-21 | Hawaii v. UCLA UNDER 70.5 | Top | 10-44 | Win | 100 | 218 h 21 m | Show |
08-27-21 | Colts v. Lions OVER 31.5 | Top | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 60 h 30 m | Show |
08-26-21 | Dodgers v. Padres +122 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 60 m | Show |
08-26-21 | Aces -10.5 v. Dream | Top | 78-71 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
08-25-21 | Tigers v. Cardinals OVER 9 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 38 m | Show |
08-24-21 | Nationals v. Marlins OVER 8 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 32 m | Show |
08-24-21 | Angels v. Orioles OVER 10.5 | Top | 14-8 | Win | 100 | 21 h 15 m | Show |
08-24-21 | Sky v. Dream UNDER 166.5 | Top | 86-79 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
08-24-21 | Mariners v. A's -140 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -140 | 8 h 22 m | Show |
08-23-21 | Jaguars v. Saints OVER 39 | Top | 21-23 | Win | 100 | 11 h 60 m | Show |
08-23-21 | White Sox -107 v. Blue Jays | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
08-22-21 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | Top | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 13 m | Show |
08-21-21 | Falcons v. Dolphins OVER 36.5 | Top | 17-37 | Win | 100 | 58 h 58 m | Show |
08-21-21 | Winnipeg v. Toronto OVER 43.5 | Top | 23-30 | Win | 100 | 56 h 52 m | Show |
08-20-21 | Chiefs -2 v. Cardinals | Top | 17-10 | Win | 100 | 37 h 8 m | Show |
08-19-21 | Edmonton Elks +4.5 v. BC | Top | 21-16 | Win | 100 | 38 h 25 m | Show |
08-19-21 | Marlins v. Reds OVER 8 | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -114 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
08-18-21 | Brewers v. Cardinals UNDER 7 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
08-17-21 | Pirates v. Dodgers OVER 9 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
08-17-21 | Mystics v. Aces OVER 170 | Top | 83-93 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
08-16-21 | Indians v. Twins UNDER 10 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
08-15-21 | Dodgers v. Mets UNDER 8 | Top | 14-4 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
08-15-21 | Yankees v. White Sox -174 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -174 | 7 h 3 m | Show |
08-14-21 | Seahawks v. Raiders OVER 37 | Top | 7-20 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 18 m | Show |
08-14-21 | Montreal v. Edmonton Elks OVER 46.5 | Top | 30-13 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 58 m | Show |
08-14-21 | Reds v. Phillies OVER 10 | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 9 m | Show |
08-13-21 | Astros -135 v. Angels | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
08-13-21 | Cardinals v. Royals UNDER 8.5 | Top | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
08-12-21 | Rockies v. Giants UNDER 7.5 | Top | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 15 h 50 m | Show |
08-12-21 | Blue Jays v. Angels UNDER 8.5 | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
08-12-21 | Washington Football Team -2 v. Patriots | Top | 13-22 | Loss | -108 | 85 h 31 m | Show |
08-11-21 | Rays v. Red Sox -115 | Top | 8-20 | Win | 100 | 9 h 38 m | Show |
08-11-21 | Dodgers v. Phillies OVER 9.5 | Top | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
08-10-21 | Rockies v. Astros OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 31 m | Show |
08-09-21 | Marlins v. Padres -1.5 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 25 h 47 m | Show |