Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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06-09-21 | Storm v. Dream +10 | Top | 95-71 | Loss | -113 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
WNBA Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over Seattle at 7 pm et on Wednesday. In my opinion, this is a bit of a lazy WNBA line set by the oddsmakers. Yes, the Storm are the defending champs and yes, Atlanta is coming off a 20-point drubbing at the hands of a middling Minnnesota squad - its second straight loss at the hands of the Lynx. However, I fully expect to see the Dream get up for this game. Despite the consecutive losses in Minnesota, Atlanta has been playing better lately, going 5-1 ATS over its last six contests. While losing guard Chennedy Carter to injury hurt, we've seen highly-touted draft pick Aari McDonald finally start to acclimate herself to the offense in recent games, most recently scoring a season-high 15 points in consecutive games against the Lynx. Meanwhile, Tiffany Hayes has scored 20+ points in four of her last five games and Cheyenne Parker, the Dream's big offseason acquisition, is rounding back into form after contributing 19 minutes and 12 points last time out. Seattle is coming off a hard-fought 1-1 split in a two-game set against the Dallas Wings at home and checks in just 1-5 ATS over its last five contests. I'll grab the generous helping of points with a Dream squad that despite its early-season struggles, hasn't lost three games in a row yet this season. Take Atlanta (10*). |
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06-08-21 | Golden Knights v. Avalanche -144 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -144 | 24 h 52 m | Show |
NHL West Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Colorado over Vegas at 9:05 pm et on Tuesday. The home team has dominated this series, going a perfect 4-0 so far and I look for that trend to continue on Tuesday night. After all, the Avs have gone an incredible 25-6 on home ice this season, outscoring the opposition by an average of 2.2 goals per contest. Note that Colorado is a perfect 10-0 when at home revenging a loss against an opponent this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 3.4 goals (!). The Avs are also 24-8 when revenging a loss against an opponent by two goals or more over the last two seasons and 25-12 when revenging a loss against an opponent in which they scored one goal or less over the last three seasons. There aren't many situations where the Golden Knights own a losing record in recent years but here's one - they're just 11-16 when coming off a win by four goals or more over the last three seasons. This will be the 13th meeting between these two teams this season and the Knights have yet to win three consecutive matchups with the Avs. Look for that to hold true on Tuesday. Take Colorado (10*). |
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06-08-21 | Mariners +107 v. Tigers | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
MLB A.L. Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Seattle over Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Mariners have quietly started hitting lately, scoring five runs or more in five of their last seven games entering Tuesday's series-opener against the Tigers. They'll have a good opportunity to keep it rolling at the plate as they faced Tigers struggling starter Matt Boyd on Tuesday. Boyd has posted an 8.59 ERA and 1.84 WHIP over his last three starts. While he does still own solid numbers here at home, the Tigers have actually only managed to win two of his six starts at Comerica Park. With Boyd averaging less than five innings per start over his last three outings that means we'll likely see plenty of the Tigers bullpen that has posted a collective 5.63 ERA and 1.60 WHIP at night this season. Marco Gonzales gets the start for the Mariners - his second since returning from the injured list. He didn't really get stretched too far in his first start back, allowing just one earned run in four innings against the A's last week. Now he's had six days off since that outing and should be able to work a little deeper into this contest. Gonzales' overall numbers are skewed by a couple of bad starts to open the campaign. He checks in having allowed just six earned runs over his last four starts, spanning 22 innings of work. While the Mariners bullpen hasn't been great this season, I'm not convinced the light-hitting Tigers can take advantage. Seattle relievers have posted a collective 4.65 ERA at night this season but a positive correction should be in order as they've actually recorded a solid 1.28 WHIP under the lights. Take Seattle (10*). |
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06-08-21 | Hawks v. 76ers UNDER 223 | Top | 102-118 | Win | 100 | 22 h 9 m | Show |
NBA Revenge Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Philadelphia at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. We missed with the 'under' in the opener of this series on Sunday but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Tuesday night. After taking two of three regular season meetings, the 76ers may have got caught taking the Hawks lightly in the series-opener. They got smacked in the mouth early in that game and didn't really recover until the fourth quarter when it was too little, too late. Here, I do expect to see the Sixers bounce back, particularly at the defensive end of the floor. Note that the last three times they allowed an opponent to shoot better than 50% from the field they responded by holding their next opponent to 90, 97 and 95 points, with none of those three contests eclipsing the total we're dealing with tonight. Meanwhile, thanks to a fourth quarter lapse, the Hawks allowed the Sixers to shoot better than 54% from the field in Game 1. Keep in mind, prior to that game they had held eight straight opponents to 44.7% shooting or worse. Note that the 'under' is 23-7 the last 30 times the Hawks have been leading a playoff series. The 'under' is also 35-17 with the 76ers playing at home following a game that totaled 235 points or more. Take the under (10*). |
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06-08-21 | Braves v. Phillies OVER 8.5 | Top | 9-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
N.L. East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. I'm anticipating a relatively high-scoring affair as the Braves and Phillies renew their rivalry in Philadelphia on Tuesday night. Drew Smyly will take the ball for Atlanta. To say he's been awful lately would be an understatement as he has posted a 7.47 ERA and 1.41 WHIP over his last three outings. Of course, that's about par for the course for Smyly in nighttime starts this season, when he has recorded a 7.05 ERA and 1.40 WHIP, with the 'over' cashing at a 5-1 clip in his six outings. Now he faces a Phillies lineup that will be getting a second look at him this season after they tagged him for five earned runs in five innings in a wild 7-6 Sunday night victory earlier this season. Behind Smyly is a Braves bullpen that has posted a collective 5.19 ERA and 1.60 WHIP on the road this season. Aaron Nola will counter for Philadelphia. He's been terrific at home this season but much of his success has been in the daytime. In eight night starts this season he has recorded a 4.84 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. The biggest issue here is that the Braves will be seeing Nola for the third time this season. In their second look at him they chased him after he allowed five earned runs in four innings. Nola has failed to last more than five innings in three of his last five outings and that means we should see plenty of a Phillies bullpen that has recorded a 4.81 ERA and 1.35 WHIP at home this season. Take the over (10*). |
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06-07-21 | Islanders v. Bruins -179 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -179 | 21 h 23 m | Show |
NHL East Division Playoff Game of the Year. My selection is on Boston over New York at 6:35 pm et on Monday. New York evened up this series with a convincing 4-1 victory at a raucous Nassau Coliseum on Saturday. Now I look for the Bruins to take back control of the series as the scene shifts back to Boston on Monday. Note that Boston is 13-1 when playing at home after scoring one goal or less in their last game over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.8 goals in that situation. Meanwhile, the Islanders average a miserable 1.9 goals per game when on the road after a home win against a division opponent over the last two seasons, outscored by an average margin of 0.5 goals in that spot. The Bruins are 20-11 on home ice this season where they average an impressive 3.4 goals per game. Look for the Isles to once again have a tough time keeping pace on Monday night. Take Boston (10*). |
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06-06-21 | Jets v. Canadiens UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -135 | 34 h 5 m | Show |
NHL North Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Winnipeg and Montreal at 6:05 pm et on Sunday. While the first game in this series was high-scoring, both teams settled into a defensive affair in Friday's 1-0 Canadiens victory. I don't think either team believes it needs to score more than 2-3 goals to secure victories in this series and for Winnipeg this is obviously as close to a must-win without being exactly that as it gets. Carey Price is locked in right now and it seems that whenever the Jets go down a key scorer up front (ie. Nik Ehlers or Blake Wheeler during the regular season and now Mark Scheifele) its secondary options struggle to pick up the slack. The Jets were never really threatened in their own end in Game 2 apart from Tyler Toffoli's short-handed marker, which was a pretty bad goal for Connor Hellebuyck to allow in a critical situation down a game in this series. I do think Hellebuyck is capable of stealing a game for the Jets though, even if their offense fails to show up once again. With all of that being said, the days of 5.5's may be numbered in this series. I'm banking on another relatively low-scoring affair on Sunday in Montreal. Take the under (10*). |
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06-06-21 | Tigers v. White Sox OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -120 | 7 h 7 m | Show |
A.L. Central Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Detroit and Chicago at 2:10 pm et on Sunday. I'll call for a high-scoring game at Guaranteed Rate Field on Sunday afternoon. The White Sox will be getting their second look at Tigers right-hander Jose Urena this season. He did last seven innings in a 5-2 victory against them back in late April but it's not as if he was dominant. Urena gave up seven hits, walked three and struck out only two over those seven frames. Note that he owns a 5.34 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in six daytime starts this season. Likewise, the Tigers 'pen has struggled in daytime appearances, recording a collective 4.90 ERA and 1.44 WHIP. Worse still, the Detroit bullpen entered yesterday's action sporting a 6.46 ERA and 1.66 WHIP on the road this season. Dylan Cease will counter for Chicago. The Tigers will be seeing him for the fourth time since last August. Cease has posted an ERA near eight to go along with a 1.76 WHIP over his last three outings. He also owns a less than impressive 1.60 WHIP in four daytime starts this season. The White Sox bullpen has posted a collective 4.59 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in day games this season. Take the over (10*). |
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06-06-21 | Hawks v. 76ers UNDER 220.5 | Top | 128-124 | Loss | -105 | 30 h 36 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Second Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Philadelphia at 1:05 pm et on Sunday. Regardless whether Joel Embiid is able to suit up for the 76ers or not, I like the way the 'under' sets up in Game 1 in this Eastern Conference semi-final series on Sunday. The Hawks cruised past the Knicks in round one but should find the going much tougher against the 76ers in round two. Note that Philadelphia checks in 32-7 at home this season where it has held opponents to 45% shooting this season. The 76ers have been locked in defensively for quite some time, having allowed just two opponents to shoot better than 50% from the field going all the way back to April 26th. I'm not convinced the pace alone in this series is going to get many games up into the 220's. While the 'over' has cashed in each of the Sixers last three games, we haven't seen the 'over' cash in four straight games involving Philadelphia since way back in late February-early March when it posted a four-game 'over' streak. The Hawks, meanwhile, are a better defensive squad than most give them credit for. Trae Young and his sharp-shooting abilities grabs the headlines, but this team can play some 'D', as evidenced by the fact that it has held eight straight opponents to 44.7% shooting or worse entering this series. After allowing 126 and 127 points in consecutive losses to the Sixers here in Philadelphia in late April, you can be sure Nate McMillan's squad will be hyper-focused on keeping the Sixers offense in check here. I simply feel we're going to see a much different series than we saw between Philadelphia and Washington, which was high-scoring in nature. Note that the 'under' cashed in two of three regular season meetings between these two teams. The Hawks check in sporting a 26-44 o/u mark when revenging consecutive double-digit losses against an opponent, as is the case here. The 'under' is also 35-16 with the 76ers playing at home after a game that saw 235 points or more. Take the under (10*). |
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06-05-21 | Red Sox v. Yankees -120 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -120 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
MLB on FOX Game of the Month. My selection is on New York over Boston at 7:15 pm et on Saturday. The Red Sox took the opener of this series last night but I like the Yankees to answer back on Saturday in the Bronx. Eduardo Rodriguez will get the call for Boston. He's been downright awful on the road this season, posting a 6.42 ERA and 1.72 WHIP. Over his last three outings he has recorded a dreadful 9.88 ERA and 2.12 WHIP. Behind Rodriguez is a Red Sox bullpen that has recorded a collective 4.32 ERA and 1.44 WHIP on the road this season, with that WHIP climbing to 2.02 over their last seven games entering last night's action. Jameson Taillon will counter for New York. He hasn't been particularly sharp this season but has been at his best here at home where he owns a 2.90 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. The Yankees bullpen has been terrific this season, posting a collective 2.84 ERA and 1.14 WHIP at home (entering last night's contest). In night games, Yankees relievers have been even better, with a 1.98 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. Take New York (10*). |
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06-05-21 | Sky +5 v. Sparks | Top | 63-68 | Push | 0 | 6 h 24 m | Show |
WNBA Game of the Month. My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Los Angeles at 3 pm et on Saturday. We just missed with the Sky in their last game as they blew a late five-point fourth quarter lead before dropping a three-point decision in overtime - their second straight heartbreaking loss at the hands of the Phoenix Mercury. Here, they'll continue their road trip against a Sparks squad that is off a blowout win against the lowly Fever, but play without a number of key players. While Los Angeles gets bit by the injury bug, Chicago gets healthier. The Sky welcomed back Allie Quigley and Stefanie Dolson last game and while both played limited minutes, they both contributed and I expect both to make even more of an impact on Saturday. Chicago isn't off to the start it had hoped for this season but there's obviously plenty of time to turn things around. This is a key spot and I look for the Sky to come up big. Take Chicago (10*). |
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06-04-21 | Reds v. Cardinals OVER 8 | Top | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
N.L. Central Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Cincinnati and St. Louis at 8:15 pm et on Friday. This one sets up nicely as a high-scoring affair after last night's low-scoring 4-2 Reds victory in the series-opener. Luis Castillo will somewhat inexplicably get another turn in the Reds rotation despite his massive struggles this season. Castillo has posted an 8.73 ERA and 1.81 WHIP on the road this season lasting less than five innings per start. The Cards have already seen him twice this season, lighting him up to the tune of 12 earned runs on 14 hits in just 8 1/3 innings. Behind Castillo is a dreadful Reds bullpen that entered last night's game sporting a collective 8.28 ERA and 1.88 WHIP on the road this season. Kwang-Hyun Kim will counter for St. Louis. He's labored through his last three starts, posting a 5.14 ERA and 1.64 WHIP. He has actually pitched quite well at home, however, and those last three outings came on the road. But here's my concern; Kim averages just under 4 2/3 innings per start this season. The Cardinals bullpen has not been good, entering last night's game with a 6.21 ERA and 1.83 WHIP over their last seven contests. They own a 5.11 ERA and 1.52 WHIP at night this season. Take the over (10*). |
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06-04-21 | Dream v. Lynx OVER 162.5 | Top | 84-86 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
WNBA Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Minnesota at 8 pm et on Friday. Minnesota has yet to break 80 points in a game this season but I look for that streak to end on Friday night as the Lynx host the Atlanta Dream. It's really only a matter of time before this supremely-talented Lynx squad gets rolling offensively. Offseason acquisition Kayla McBride has yet to really emerge as the scoring threat she was in Las Vegas but it's coming. Note that she has still managed to score in double-figures in four of five games this season. Meanwhile, they welcomed back Napheesa Collier two games back and she's contributed 25 points to go along with eight assists since returning. Here, I expect the Lynx to take advantage of a below-average Dream defense. Atlanta checks in off three straight 'over' results even though the most recent was aided by overtime last Saturday in New York (we won with the Dream in that game). Atlanta's offense has slowly come around this season and while losing sharp-shooting guard Chennedy Carter to injury hurts, they are expected to welcome back big offseason acquisition Cheyenne Parker from Covid protocols on Friday. I also expect highly-touted draft pick Aari McDonald, who has struggled in the early stages of her WNBA career, to pick up some of the slack, likely receiving more playing time in Carter's absence. Note that three of the last five meetings in this series have gone 'over' the total, including the most recent matchup which reached 167 points on August 28th of last year. Take the over (10*). |
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06-04-21 | Canadiens v. Jets -114 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -114 | 14 h 36 m | Show |
NHL Second Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Winnipeg over Montreal at 7:35 pm et on Friday. One would think the Jets would be at a major disadvantage here, not only down 1-0 in the series but now also without one of their best players in Mark Scheifele after his bone-headed decision to charge Jake Evans for a vicious hit in the final minute of Game 1. I actually feel his absence could be galvanizing in nature for this Jets squad that has faced plenty of adversity this season, while serving as more of a distraction for the Canadiens, who should be focused on trying to take a 2-0 stranglehold on this series rather than on exacting revenge for Scheifele's hit. Regardless, the Habs are set up poorly here having gone 1-7 after winning three straight games over the last two seasons, outscored by 1.6 goals on average in that situation. In a bit of a quirky trend, they're also a miserable 11-26 when playing their third straight road game over the last two seasons, allowing 3.3 goals per game in that spot. Finally, it's worth noting that they're 4-12 after consecutive wins by two or more goals over the last three seasons, giving up an average of 3.7 goals in that situation. For their part, the Jets are 11-4 when revenging a loss against an opponent this season and better still, 28-13 when revenging a loss where their opponent scored four or more goals over the last two seasons, averaging 3.2 goals per game in that spot. They've proven to be a terrific bounce-back team, going 24-12 following a loss to a division opponent over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by 0.8 goals on average. This will be the 11th meeting between these two teams this season and Montreal has yet to record three consecutive victories. I don't see it happening tonight either. Take Winnipeg (10*). |
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06-04-21 | Astros v. Blue Jays -120 | Top | 13-1 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
MLB Blowout Game of the Month. My selection is on Toronto over Houston at 7:05 pm et on Friday. I'll back the Blue Jays at a short price with their ace on the hill on Friday night as they look to take the first step in avenging a series loss in Houston suffered earlier this season. Toronto is of course seeing the ball exceptionally well right now, hitting .302 as a team over its last seven games. Here it will face veteran right-hander Zack Greinke, who has admittedly been at his best on the road this season where he owns a 1.64 ERA and 0.73 WHIP in five starts this season. However, the Jays will be getting their second look at him in less than a month and did have plenty of success the last time they faced him on May 9th, knocking him out of the game after four innings after he gave up four earned runs on nine hits. Greinke will also be making his second straight start on just four days of rest. Note that working behind Greinke is an Astros bullpen that has posted a 4.89 ERA and 1.60 WHIP on the road this season, blowing seven saves compared to only four converted. Hyun-Jin ryu gets the start for the Jays. He's struggled a bit in his last two starts but should bounce back nicely here. He owns a 2.05 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in five night starts this season. While I say he's struggled in his last couple of outings, that's relatively speaking. He's actually still posted a 1.93 ERA and 1.02 WHIP over his last three starts, giving up four earned runs in 11 2/3 innings over his last two trips to the hill. Oddly enough, Ryu will be making his first career start against the Astros. The Toronto bullpen has been phenomenal of late, posting a collective 1.72 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in 15 2/3 innings of work over their last seven games. While their home numbers leave a lot to be desired, it's worth noting that the Jays shifted to Sahlen Field in Buffalo for their home games earlier this week. In two games here, they've allowed just one earned run in 8 2/3 innings. I mentioned the Astros won a series against Toronto at home earlier this season. Note that Houston checks in just 11-12 on the road this season. Take Toronto (10*). |
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06-03-21 | Suns v. Lakers OVER 207 | Top | 113-100 | Win | 100 | 17 h 37 m | Show |
NBA Elimination Game Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Phoenix and Los Angeles at 10:35 pm et on Thursday. Game 5 managed to stay 'under' the total mostly due to its noncompetitive nature. The first quarter was actually fairly high-scoring but things got completely out of hand from there with Phoenix cruising to a 30-point victory. I'm certainly expecting a more competitive affair as the scene shifts back to Los Angeles for Game 6 on Thursday night. Note that the 'over' has gone 11-1 with the Suns coming off a win by 20 points or more this season with those contests totaling an average of 237.4 points. The 'over' is also 24-11 with Phoenix coming off two or more straight wins this season with those games averaging 225.2 total points. While there are a number of trends pointing to the 'under' when it comes to the Lakers, the majority of those trends have resulted in average totals north of the relatively low number we're working with here tonight. Note that Lakers home games have totaled an average of 217.9 points this season. That includes a number of games where they were without both Lebron James and Anthony Davis. While Davis' status for Thursday's game remains in question, I would expect him to play. Even if he can't go, I still like the way this one sets up as a relatively high-scoring affair. Take the over (10*). |
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06-03-21 | Suns v. Lakers -2 | Top | 113-100 | Loss | -104 | 16 h 26 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Phoenix at 10:35 pm et on Thursday. Everyone is down on the Lakers right now. Perhaps rightfully so after an ugly 30-point loss in Game 5 of this series two nights ago. Concerning for the Suns though is the fact that Chris Paul was forced to leave Tuesday's game after aggravating his shoulder injury. Now he'll be forced to play on just one day of rest once again - just as we saw between Games 2 and 3 when the Lakers rolled to a 14-point victory here at home. It was only after two off days that CP3 was able to turn in a stellar performance in last Sunday's key Game 4 victory here in Los Angeles. While Anthony Davis' status remains in question for Los Angeles I would expect him to play in this elimination game, although even if he can't go, I still like the Lakers at a short number here. Even with Lebron and AD in and out of the lineup this season, Los Angeles has still managed to go 23-16 here at home, outscoring the opposition by 3.5 points on average. Better still, the Lakers have outscored opponents by an average of 6.7 points as a favorite this season. Considering the Lakers closed as -6.5-point favorites in both Games 3 and 4 here at home, I believe we're dealing with an overreaction to the last two results in this series. AD's status certainly plays a factor as well but perhaps a little more than it should as the defending champs face elimination on Thursday. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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06-03-21 | Tigers v. White Sox -199 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
MLB Big Chalk Game of the Month. My selection is on Chicago over Detroit at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. The White Sox had their series finale in Cleveland rained out yesterday, preventing them the opportunity to go for a 2-2 series split. I do look for them to bounce back from consecutive losses here as they open a series with the suddenly surging Tigers. Detroit has won five of its last seven games overall. Despite a 10-run explosion against the Brewers last time out, the Tigers are still averaging just 4.6 runs per game over their last seven contests, however. Casey Mize will get the start for Detroit on Thursday. While he's been solid this season, it's interesting to note that he owns a 4.33 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in five starts against division opponents with the Tigers winning just two of those games. That includes a 3-1 loss to the White Sox. Note that Chicago will be getting its fourth look at Mize since last August and it has had some success against him, scoring eight earned runs in 15 2/3 innings, going a perfect 3-0 along the way. While the Tigers bullpen has been terrific lately, it still owns a 6.22 ERA and 1.60 WHIP on the road this season where it has recorded just five saves compared to four blown saves. Veteran Lance Lynn will counter for Chicago. He's off to a tremendous start this season having gone 6-1 with a 1.37 ERA and 0.93 WHIP. He's certainly comfortable pitching here in Chicago where he has gone 5-1 with a 1.46 ERA and 0.81 WHIP. Behind Lynn is a White Sox bullpen that has posted a collective 0.50 ERA and 0.39 WHIP over the last seven games and owns a solid 3.22 ERA and 1.10 WHIP at home this season. Take Chicago (10*). |
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06-03-21 | Hurricanes v. Lightning OVER 5.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 38 m | Show |
NHL Central Division Round Two Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Carolina and Tampa Bay at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. If the Hurricanes are going to have any chance at getting back in this series they're going to need to break through against Lightning goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy. With the scene shifting to Tampa for Game 3 on Thursday night, I expect them to do just that. Note that the last four times the Lightning have played after posting consecutive road victories, they've gone on to allow a whopping 6.0 goals per game with those contests totaling an average of 9.3 goals. We're talking about a small sample size, but the point is still worth making. Also note that the 'over' has gone 17-7 the last 24 times the Lightning have come off a one-goal victory over a division opponent, with those games totaling an average of 6.8 goals. Carolina's road games have been considerably higher-scoring than its home games this season, averaging a total of 6.0 goals. Lightning home games have averaged an identical 6.0 goals as well. I'll also point to the fact that the 'over' has gone 27-17 with the Canes playing on the road with a total of 5.5 under head coach Rod Brind'Amour, with those contests totaling an average of 6.1 goals. We've now seen four consecutive 'under' results in games between these two teams. I believe both have too much offensive firepower for that trend to continue much longer. Take the over (10*). |
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06-01-21 | Angels v. Giants OVER 6.5 | Top | 8-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a relatively low-scoring game between these two teams yesterday as the Giants pulled away late for a 6-1 victory. Of course that result would actually be enough to get Tuesday's game 'over' the very low posted total. I believe it will prove to be too low. Andrew Heaney gets the start for the Angels. We won with the 'over' in his most recent outing against the Rangers. He has posted an inflated 7.71 ERA and 1.79 WHIP over his last three starts and has seen the 'over' cash at an 8-1 clip in his nine starts to date this season. Given the fact that he averages just five innings per start we're likely to see plenty from the Angels bullpen in this one. They have posted a collective 4.72 ERA and 1.39 WHIP on the road this season (entering yesterday's action). They gave up another two earned runs in 2 1/3 innings in yesterday's loss. Left-hander Alex Wood will take the ball for the Giants. While he has been solid overall this season I will point out that the Angels are averaging 5.3 runs per game against southpaw starters this season with those games totaling an average of 11.2 runs. Wood's home numbers do jump off the page but just one reason for caution (and why my play on the Giants is of the 8* variety), three of his four home outings have come against the Marlins, Rockies and Rangers - three subpar offensive clubs, particularly on the road. We likely won't need much from the Angels offense to help this one 'over' the low total. Take the over (10*). |
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06-01-21 | Blazers v. Nuggets OVER 226 | Top | 140-147 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
NBA Northwest Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Portland and Denver at 9:05 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a relatively low-scoring game between these two teams on Sunday afternoon as the Nuggets simply couldn't get back up for Game 4 after staging an upset win in Game 3. Here, I look for a return to this series' high-scoring ways as the scene shifts back to Denver for Game 5. Note that the 'over' has gone 23-11 with the Blazers coming off an 'under' result this season with those games totaling an average of 235.8 points. We've also seen the 'over' go 17-6 with the Blazers playing on the road off a double-digit win over the last two seasons with that situation producing an average total of 235.1 points. On the flip side, the 'over' has gone 20-9 with the Nuggets coming off a double-digit loss over the last two seasons, good for an average total of 229.5 points. With Denver coming off a loss of any kind this season, the 'over' has gone 18-8 with an average total of 228.1 points scored. I look for both teams to come out aggressively in this pivotal Game 5 as they lean on their strengths with the Blazers averaging 116.9 points per game on the road and the Nuggets putting up 117.2 points per game here at home and noting that the 'over' has gone 7-4 in the last 11 meetings in Denver. Take the over (10*). |
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06-01-21 | Twins v. Orioles OVER 9 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
A.L. Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Baltimore at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a low-scoring game between these two teams yesterday as the Twins prevailed 3-2 in extra innings. I'm expecting a different story to unfold on Tuesday, however. Michael Pineda will get the call for the Twins. He was sharp against the Orioles in his most recent start last week and his overall numbers are solid this season. With that being said, he's certainly prone to giving up the long ball, having been tagged for nine home runs in eight starts this season, including seven in his last five starts. Now he pitches at hitter-friendly Camden Yards. His recent numbers against the O's are positive but he hasn't faced them here in Baltimore since 2016. In six career starts at Camden Yards he has been tagged for 20 earned runs in 29 1/3 innings. Working behind Pineda is a Twins bullpen that owns a collective 5.40 ERA and 1.53 WHIP (entering yesterday's action) on the road this season. Bruce Zimmermann remains in the Orioles rotation only because they have no better options right now. To say that he's struggled would be an understatement. He owns a 5.52 ERA and 1.84 WHIP here at home and like Pineda, has had a tough time keeping the ball in the park, allowing home runs in four straight and eight of nine career big league starts. Note that he'll be facing a Twins club that actually produces better on the road, where it averages north of five runs per game this season. With Zimmermann unlikely to work deep into this game that means we should see plenty from the O's down-trodden bullpen, which entered yesterday's game having posted an 8.31 ERA and 1.90 WHIP over its last seven games. Take the over (10*). |
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05-31-21 | Jazz v. Grizzlies UNDER 225.5 | Top | 120-113 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 7 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Utah and Memphis at 9:35 pm et on Monday. We've seen the 'over' cash in the first three meetings in this series but I look for a reversal of that trend on Monday night. After consecutive subpar defensive efforts, the Grizzlies need to step up at that end of the floor here in Game 4. They're certainly capable of doing so, having allowed 110.5 points per game on 45.6% shooting here at home this season, with the 'under' cashing at a 23-15 clip. Note that Memphis has allowed just 107.6 points per game when coming off a double-digit loss at home over the last two seasons, with the 'under' going 13-4 along the way. The 'under' is also 13-2 with the Grizzlies playing at home in just their second game in the last five days over the last two seasons, with those contests averaging a total of 216.7 points. Likewise, the Jazz have posted a 26-41 o/u record when playing their second game in the last five days over the last three seasons with those games totaling just 215.4 points on average. Donovan Mitchell's return has essentially turned the tide for the Jazz in this series. In what is basically a must-win game for the Grizzlies, look for them to do a better job of limiting his opportunities. Offensively, Memphis is in tough as it has now shot 45% or worse from the field in six of its last seven contests, perhaps showing a bit of a fatigue after going all-out down the stretch to earn a playoff spot. Note that the Grizzlies have scored over 110 points in four straight games entering Monday's contest, their longest such streak since April 14th to 19th. In their next game after that previous four-game streak they managed only 105 points and produced an 'under' result against the Clippers. Take the under (10*). |
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05-31-21 | Islanders v. Bruins OVER 5 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
NHL East Division Playoff Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Boston at 7:35 pm et on Monday. We're only one game into this series but as good as a defensive team as they are, I think the chances of the Islanders slowing down the Bruins 'Perfection Line' of Marchand, Bergeron and Pastrnak are slim to none. While David Pastrnak managed a hat trick in Game 1, he easily could have had a couple more goals as well. When the dust settled, the Bruins shook off some early rust and cruised to a 5-2 series-opening victory. New York generally carries a defensive mindset under head coach Barry Trotz but here I think it knows it will have to turn up the offensive volume in order to stay in this series. It's worth noting that the Isles have managed to score at least four goals against the Bruins on three different occasions this season. While they faced a different challenge in round one, they scored four goals in both games where they were coming off a loss, as is the case here. Note that the Isles have allowed 3.4 goals per game when revenging a road loss against an opponent this season with those contests totaling an average of 6.1 goals. The Bruins have been a terrific positive momentum play here at home, averaging 3.8 goals per game after winning two or more games in a row over the last three seasons, with those contests totaling an average of 6.1 goals. Take the over (10*). |
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05-31-21 | Angels v. Giants -130 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 9 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Game of the Month. My selection is on San Francisco over Los Angeles at 4:05 pm et on Monday. The Giants are rolling right now and remain one of the most undervalued teams in baseball. While a letdown looks like it could be in order off a huge series sweep of the rival Dodgers in Los Angeles, I don't see it in this spot. The Angels are coming off consecutive wins of their own over a division rival in Oakland. That only salvaged a four-game series split with the A's - a series in which they scored a grand total of only nine runs. L.A. checks in just 11-15 on the road this season where it averages less than four runs per game. Meanwhile, San Francisco has posted a solid 14-7 home record, averaging 4.2 runs per contest. The starting pitching matchup is virtually a wash here with Dylan Bundy facing Johnny Cueto. I will point out, however, that Cueto has been at his best at home and in daytime starts this season, recording a 3.11 ERA and 0.98 WHIP here in San Fran while posting a 2.82 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in daytime outings. After a strong start to the season, the wheels have come off for Bundy as he has been tagged for 17 earned runs in just 9 2/3 innings of work over his last three starts. The Angels have lost six of his last eight starts overall. Where the Giants own a big advantage here is in the bullpen and that's notable as both Bundy and Cueto average just a shade over five innings per start this season. Note that the Giants 'pen has posted a collective 2.96 ERA and 1.12 WHIP at home this season. Take San Francisco (10*). |
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05-30-21 | Angels v. A's -145 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -145 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
MLB A.L. West Game of the Month. My selection is on Oakland over Los Angeles at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. The Angels got the better of the A's in yesterday's ball game, securing a 4-0 victory to avoid a potential four-game sweep in this series. I look for Oakland to answer back with a win of its own on Sunday afternoon. Down-trodden Jose Quintana will take the ball for Los Angeles. To say that he has struggled this season would be an understatement. With a 7.93 ERA and 1.92 WHIP you have to wonder how many more starts the Angels can afford to give the veteran right-hander. Things have been even worse for Quintana on the road, where he owns a gaudy 12.54 ERA and 2.36 WHIP, albeit with a relatively small sample size of three starts spanning just 9 1/3 innings. But that's part of the concern here; Quintana is averaging less than four innings per start this season. That opens the door for an Angels bullpen that entered yesterday's action sporting a 5.13 ERA and 1.47 WHIP on the road this season. Cole Irvin will counter for Oakland. The A's have dropped each of his last four starts although it's worth noting that three of those losses came by a single run. Irvin's overall numbers aren't great this season but most of his struggles have come against the Astros (in three starts against them he's been tagged for 13 earned runs in 14 2/3 innings. Note that Irvin has held his own in five daytime starts, recording a solid 1.21 WHIP. The A's bullpen hasn't been great lately, entering yesterday's action sporting a 4.50 ERA over their last seven games but that doesn't tell the whole story as they actually recorded a terrific 1.06 WHIP over that stretch. Oakland's 'pen was sharp yesterday, tossing 3 1/3 innings of three-hit, shutout ball. Take Oakland (10*). |
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05-30-21 | Suns v. Lakers OVER 209.5 | Top | 100-92 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
NBA on ABC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Phoenix and Los Angeles at 3:35 pm et on Sunday. This has been a low-scoring series to this point with the 'under' cashing in two of three games. I expect a different story to unfold on Sunday afternoon, however, as the Suns look to punch back at the Lakers off consecutive losses. Note that while Phoenix is an excellent defensive team, it's road games have still averaged nearly 225 total points this season. Likewise, the Lakers rate as one of the league's best defensive squads, but games here at Staples Center have still reached an average total of nearly 219 points. Two regular season meetings between these two teams here totaled 218 and 233 points. The fact that there was two days off between Games 3 and 4 is key for the Suns as they need Chris Paul's shoulder to heal up as he's clearly been off in the last couple of games. He's obviously still not going to be at 100% but I do expect him to contribute more than he did in the last couple of games and it's certainly worth noting that despite his struggles, Game 3 still went 'over' the total and Game 4 fell short by just a handful of points. Note that the 'over' is 41-24 with the Suns coming off an 'under' result over the last two seasons with those contests totaling an average of 225 points. The 'over' is also 40-26 with the Suns playing consecutive road games over the last two seasons, producing an average total of 227.1 points. There are a number of trends pointing to the 'under' when it comes to the Lakers but in virtually all of those situations, the average total has gone 'over' the relatively low number we're working with today. Take the over (10*). |
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05-29-21 | Jazz v. Grizzlies UNDER 224 | Top | 121-111 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 4 m | Show |
NBA First Round Revenge Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Utah and Memphis at 9:35 pm et on Saturday. |
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05-29-21 | Yankees -133 v. Tigers | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -133 | 7 h 20 m | Show |
American League Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on New York over Detroit at 4:10 pm et on Saturday. The Tigers got past the Yankees in extra innings last night but I look for the Bronx Bombers to answer back with a victory of their own on Saturday afternoon. Deivi Garcia will take the ball for the Yanks. He's made just one spot start this season and allowed two earned runs over four innings in a 4-2 loss to the Orioles (back on April 26th). So you can understand why the Yankees are such a short favorite against the lowly Tigers here. However, I believe Garcia will have a short leash again in this one and behind him is a terrific Yankees bullpen that entered last night's action having posted a 2.69 ERA and 0.95 WHIP on the road this season. Note that the Tigers check in 14-22 against right-handed starting pitching this season, averaging just 3.7 runs per game. Spencer Turnbull gets the start for the Tigers. He's obviously been terrific on the whole this season, including a no-hitter in Seattle two starts back. With that being said, the Yanks will be getting their second look at Turnbull this month after knocking him around for four earned runs over five innings back on May 1st. Turnbull managed only one strikeout in that start so he wasn't really fooling anyone. Behind Turnbull is a Tigers 'pen that has held up well lately but owns a 5.35 ERA and 1.49 WHIP in 79 innings pitched in the daytime this season. Take New York (10*). |
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05-29-21 | Chelsea v. Manchester City -112 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -112 | 30 h 39 m | Show |
Champions League Game of the Year. My selection is on Manchester City over Chelsea at 3 pm et on Saturday. It's an all-England, all-blue showdown between Manchester City and Chelsea in Porto on Saturday as City boss Pep Guardiola looks to finally capture that elusive Champions League title. I like City's chances as it looks to build off an EPL title with a victory over a game Chelsea squad on Saturday. Credit Man City for righting the ship in its EPL finale against Everton, rolling to a 5-0 victory last Sunday. It had been stumbling in the weeks previous, including a 2-1 setback against Chelsea back on May 8th. Of course that match was played just four days after Man City had locked up a spot in the UCL Final with a convincing 2-0 victory over Paris St-Germain. The Sky Blues check in having won 11 of 12 Champions League matches to date, conceding only four goals along the way. While Chelsea has obviously enjoyed considerable success in Europe, it has been a bit frustrating to watch at times with striker Timo Werner in particular struggling to find consistency on the attack. It could certainly be argued that Chelsea is the flashier side in this matchup but all of that window dressing doesn't equate to victory. We've seen City come up empty in Europe on so many occasions over the years I can understand the hesitancy of many to back them here. However, I like the fact that they're going up against a familiar opponent in Chelsea. As much as Blues boss Thomas Tuchel would like to make amends for last year's disappointment with Paris St-Germain a year ago, I expect his squad to fall short against a superior City club on Saturday. Take Manchester City (10*). |
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05-29-21 | Bucks v. Heat +5 | Top | 120-103 | Loss | -112 | 6 h 20 m | Show |
NBA First Round Elimination Game of the Year. My selection is on Miami plus the points over Milwaukee at 1:35 pm et on Saturday. You probably won't find the majority of bettors looking to back the Heat here as they come off consecutive embarrassing performances to dig themselves a virtually insurmountable 0-3 hole in this series. Believe it or not, I think the Heat are set up well to avoid elimination on Saturday afternoon, however. Note that Milwaukee is just 11-24 ATS after winning five or six of its last seven games this season. Better still, the Bucks are 5-16 ATS after posting three or more consecutive victories this season, outscoring opponents by just 0.7 points on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Heat have gone 13-3 ATS after giving up 105 points or more in five consecutive games over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an impressive 7.9 points per game in that spot. The fourth win is generally the toughest in a playoff series and I expect that to hold true here. While the Heat were absolutely crushed in Game 3, at least Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler both managed to post series-high scoring totals. I expect that duo to show some pride and lead the Heat to a strong bounce-back effort here. Take Miami (10*). |
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05-28-21 | Rangers v. Mariners OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 48 m | Show |
MLB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Texas and Seattle at 10:10 pm et on Friday. We saw a relatively low-scoring affair in the opener of this series last night as the Mariners cruised to a 5-0 victory. I expect a different story to unfold on Friday, however. Jordan Lyles will take the ball for Texas. The Mariners will be getting their fourth look at the veteran right-hander since last August and they've teed off on him so far, to the tune of 16 earned runs in 15 1/3 innings. While Lyles has pitched reasonably well over his last few starts he still checks in sporting an inflated 6.99 ERA and 1.66 WHIP in night starts this season, averaging less than five innings per start. That spells trouble considering the Rangers bullpen has been a mess, entering last night's action with a collective 5.72 ERA and 1.59 WHIP on the road this season. They proceeded to allow three earned runs on five hits over four innings in last night's game. Justus Sheffield will counter for Seattle. Like the Mariners with Lyles, the Rangers will be seeing Sheffield for the fourth time since last August. They've already faced him once this season, scoring five earned runs on 10 hits over five innings in a 10-2 victory on May 9th. Sheffield has really struggled lately, posting a 6.75 ERA and 1.81 WHIP over his last three starts with the 'over' cashing in all three of those. Like Lyles, he has also struggled at night, recording a 6.00 ERA and 1.82 WHIP in 27 innings. Prior to last night's contest, the Mariners bullpen had posted a collective 6.03 ERA and 1.50 WHIP over their last seven games. Expect plenty of offense on the board tonight. Take the over (10*). |
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05-28-21 | Lynx +7.5 v. Storm | Top | 72-82 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
WNBA Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Minnesota plus the points over Seattle at 10 pm et on Friday. As defending WNBA champions, Seattle is likely to get every opponent's best shot this season. Perhaps even moreso here as Minnesota has been idle since dropping a 12-point decision at home against the Storm back on May 20th. The Lynx were right there in that one until Seattle caught fire in the fourth quarter. Here, I look for Minnesota to do a better job of keeping things close for 40 minutes. Note that the extra time off has given the Lynx a chance to get underrated Napheesa Collier back for this matchup. She was a force at both ends of the floor last season and adds to an already talented Lynx lineup. The extra time off should have also served to get former Las Vegas Aces sharp-shooter Kayla McBride better acclimated in the offense. Seattle has reeled off three straight wins since opening the season with a 1-1 split in a two-game set against the Aces. However, the Storm have failed to cover the spread in each of their last two games (we settled for a 'push' with Seattle in its three-point win over Connecticut earlier this week). With Minnesota desperate to end its three-game slide to open the season, we'll grab the generous helping of points on Friday night. Take Minnesota (10*). |
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05-28-21 | Clippers -2 v. Mavs | Top | 118-108 | Win | 100 | 16 h 45 m | Show |
NBA First Round Revenge Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Dallas at 9:35 pm et on Friday. The Clippers have dug themselves an 0-2 hole heading to Dallas for Game 3 but I don't expect them to panic. No NBA series is really over (for all intents and purposes) until a team goes down 3-0. Here, the Clips are actually set up well as they've gone 22-10 ATS on the road revenging a same-season loss against an opponent over the last three seasons. Better still, they're an incredible 13-2 ATS after losing five or six of their last seven games ATS over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscoring the opposition by a whopping 19.1 points on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Mavs have generally been a better team at home off a loss in recent years, going 6-16 ATS the last 22 times they've returned home following a road victory, outscored by an average margin of 6.3 points in that spot. Dallas has now won three straight meetings in this series, noting that it hadn't even managed to take two straight matchups in the previous nine games between these two teams going back to the bubble in Orlando last summer. A quality road team having gone 21-15, outscoring the opposition by 4.3 points on average, I look for the Clippers to come up with an answer in Big D on Friday night. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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05-27-21 | Suns v. Lakers -7 | Top | 95-109 | Win | 100 | 14 h 45 m | Show |
NBA on TNT Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Phoenix at 10:05 pm et on Thursday. We won with the Lakers (and the 'over') in Game 2 of this series and we'll come right back with them again in Game 3 as the scene shifts to Staples Center in Los Angeles. Chris Paul is obviously the engine that runs the Suns offense. Yes, Devin Booker is electric and capable of going off on any given night, but without a healthy CP3, the Suns aren't going anywhere. Paul is nursing a shoulder injury he suffered in the opener of this series and was limited to just 22 ineffective minutes in Game 2. Now with only a day off between games, I'm not sure how much he can give the Suns on Thursday night. There's probably a better chance we see him go full throttle in Game 4 as there will be a two-day layoff between games. Regardless, the Suns are not well-positioned to take control of this series here, noting they've gone just 5-5 over their last 10 road games after starting the season 19-7 away from home. Meanwhile, home court has suddenly meant something to the Lakers as they've reeled off five straight victories here at home, not coincidentally the streak has had a lot to do with them getting healthier down the stretch. We saw the Lakers clamp down on the Suns offense in Game 2. We've yet to see them turn in their best effort offensively but I do think it's coming. Why not on Thursday, in a pivotal Game 3 matchup on their home floor. Note that L.A. checks in 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS in its last six home matchups against Phoenix. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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05-27-21 | Canadiens +1.5 v. Maple Leafs | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
NHL First Round Puck-Line Game of the Year. My selection is on Montreal +1.5 goals over Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Leafs have cruised to three straight victories in this series to push the Habs to the brink of elimination but I don't expect Montreal to go down without a fight on Thursday. Note that Montreal is an incredible 21-8 when coming off a home loss by two goals or more over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by 0.8 goals on average in that situation. They're also 13-6 when playing on the road after scoring two goals or less in consecutive games over that same stretch, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 0.5 goals. Meanwhile, the Leafs are just 11-14 after winning three or more consecutive games over the last two seasons. They're also 10-14 when playing their third game in four nights over that stretch, outscored by 0.2 goals on average in that spot. Finally, I'll point out that the Habs have been in a situation where they've been seeking revenge against an opponent for a loss by three or more goals on 11 occasions this season and in that situation they've allowed just 2.1 goals per game while outscoring the opposition by an average of 0.4 goals. Take Montreal +1.5 goals (10*). |
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05-27-21 | Wings v. Dream OVER 163.5 | Top | 95-101 | Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
WNBA Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and Atlanta at 7 pm et on Thursday. I'm anticipating a relatively high-scoring affair between the Wings and Dream on Thursday night. Dallas has suffered back-to-back losses since opening the season with a blowout win over the Sparks in Los Angeles. The Wings offense continues to perform at a reasonably high level, however, scoring 94, 97 and 81 points through three games. Arike Ogunbowale is an underappreciated star in the making, having scored 52 points over the last two games. Marina Mabrey has also stepped up over the last two games, pouring in 48 points. Here, the Wings should be able to get rolling once again versus a middle of the pack Atlanta defense. While the Dream check in eighth in offensive rating that's largely due to a slow start to the season. They're coming off back-to-back victories, scoring 83 and 90 points in the process. The return of Tiffany Hayes has sparked the charge and she's coming off a 26-point effort in a win over Chicago. I'm still waiting for the backcourt tandem of Chennedy Carter and rookie Aari McDonald to go off. McDonald is coming off her best performance of the young season having scored nine points in 17 minutes against Chicago. Dallas ranks in the bottom half of the WNBA in terms of defensive rating and I expect the Dream to take advantage and push the pace here. Take the over (10*). |
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05-27-21 | Padres -120 v. Brewers | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -120 | 6 h 18 m | Show |
MLB National League Game of the Month. My selection is on San Diego over Milwaukee at 1:10 pm et on Thursday. The Padres have bounced back with consecutive wins in this series after dropping Monday's opener and I look for them to wrap up the four-game set with another victory on Thursday afternoon. Ryan Weathers takes the ball for San Diego. He's not going to work deep into the game but that's just fine as the Padres bullpen has been lights out. They entered last night's contest having posted a collective 0.73 ERA and 0.73 WHIP over their last seven games and proceeded to toss four shutout innings in a 2-1 extra innings victory. For Weathers' part, he has made two road starts, not allowing a single earned run in 6 2/3 innings of work. The Brewers don't hit left-handers well, having gone 3-6 while averaging just 2.8 runs per game against southpaw starters this season. The Padres will be getting their second look at Brewers starter Adrian Houser this season. He owns an inflated 5.00 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in four home starts this season with the Brewers winning just one of those. Also note that he averages less than five innings per start here at home which spells trouble as the Brewers bullpen entered last night's action having posted a collective 7.32 ERA and 1.58 WHIP over their last seven contests. Take San Diego (10*). |
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05-26-21 | Hawks v. Knicks -2 | Top | 92-101 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Round 1 Game of the Year. My selection is on New York minus the points over Atlanta at 7:35 pm et on Wednesday. I really like the way this one sets up for the Knicks after they played poorly but still took the Hawks right down to the wire in the opener of this series on Sunday. The fantastic duo of R.J. Barrett and Julius Randle combined to knock down just 12 shots and score only 29 points in Game 1, something I look for them to make amends for here in Game 2. Hawks superstar Trae Young got to the free throw line nine times (and knocked down all nine shots) in Game 1 and now continues to get called out for 'flopping'. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see the Knicks get the benefit of the doubt from the officials a little more here in Game 2. Note that the Hawks are just 5-15 ATS on the road after scoring 105 points or more in four straight games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscored by 7.9 points on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Knicks have thrived in similar situations to this all season, going 18-8 ATS as a favorite and and incredible 25-6 ATS when the line is between +3 and -3, as is the case here. Better still, they're 17-2 ATS when at home in the latter situation this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 7.9 points. Finally, note that the Knicks have taken four of the last six meetings with Atlanta here at home. I don't believe there's any real intimidation factor at play in this one. Now that the Hawks have earned their split in New York, I look for the Knicks to answer back and send the series back to Atlanta knotted at one game apiece. Take New York (10*). |
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05-26-21 | Braves v. Red Sox OVER 10 | Top | 5-9 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
MLB Revenge Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Boston at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday The Braves got the better of the Red Sox in the opener of this series last night, notching their fourth straight victory and handing Boston its second loss in a row following a four-game winning streak. That was a low-scoring contest with just four total runs scored. I look for a different story to unfold on Wednesday, however. Drew Smyly will get the start for Atlanta. He has pitched reasonably well on the road this season, posting a 3.27 ERA and 1.32 WHIP, but his three quality road outings have come against the Nationals (twice) and Brewers - two subpar offensive clubs. In his other road start he was lit up by the Blue Jays, allowing five earned runs in just four innings in a 13-5 loss. Note that Boston checks in 10-5 against left-handed starters this season. Behind Smyly is a Braves bullpen that entered last night's action having posted a collective 4.92 ERA and 1.61 WHIP on the road this season. Nick Pivetta will counter for Boston. He's been a pleasant surprise for the Red Sox, going 5-0 with a 3.59 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. He's been at his best here at Fenway Park where he owns a 3.17 ERA and 1.17 WHIP with the Sox winning four of his five starts. However, here he'll face a Braves team that should be quite familiar with him from his days with the N.L. East rival Phillies. Pivetta's last three starts against the Braves have resulted in 17, 11 and 10 total runs. Pivetta generally only works around five innings per start and while the Red Sox bullpen has been solid, it will face a tough challenge against a deep Braves lineup that is seeing the ball well right now. Take the over (10*). |
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05-26-21 | Penguins +100 v. Islanders | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
NHL First Round Elimination Game of the Year. My selection is on Pittsburgh over New York at 6:35 pm et on Wednesday. Off a 50-shot barrage in a losing effort on Monday I look for the Penguins to finally capitalize on their opportunities and force a seventh and deciding game in this series with a victory in Uniondale on Wednesday. Note that Pittsburgh checks in a perfect 8-0 when coming off consecutive losses against division opponents over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 2.4 goals in that spot. The Pens are also an incredible 23-11 after giving up three goals or more in consecutive games over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 1.1 goals on average in that situation. They obviously come into this game with double-revenge off consecutive losses and I'll point to the fact that they've gone 18-5 when revenging a loss against an opponent this season, outscoring the opposition by 1.1 goals on average in that spot. While the Isles do hold a 7-5 edge against the Pens here on Long Island over the last three seasons, three of those five Pittsburgh victories have come this season. This has had the feel of a seven-game series all the way and I expect it to play out accordingly on Wednesday. Take Pittsburgh (10*). |
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05-25-21 | Lakers v. Suns OVER 208.5 | Top | 109-102 | Win | 100 | 14 h 13 m | Show |
NBA Pacific Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Phoenix at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. We saw an incredibly low-scoring game (by today's NBA standards) in the opener of this series on Sunday as the Suns cruised to a 99-90 victory. I certainly expect to see the Lakers punch back on Tuesday night but Phoenix isn't going to roll over and has proven to be an incredibly efficient offensive team here at home this season, averaging 116.1 points per game on better than 49% shooting. Note that the 'over' has gone 23-11 with the Suns coming off two or more consecutive wins this season, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 225.7 points. Better still, the 'over' is 13-4 with the Suns coming off four or more straight victories over the last two seasons with an average total of 232.8 points in that spot. As for the Lakers, they've seen the 'over' cash at a 49-26 clip the last 75 times they've played on the road off a loss against a division opponent. Look for an answer from Lebron and A.D. off an off day on Sunday but the Suns should do their part to help this one 'over' the total as well. Take the over (10*). |
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05-25-21 | Predators v. Hurricanes UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
NHL Revenge Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Nashville and Carolina at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. This has turned out to be a very high-scoring series with three of the four games totaling seven goals or more. I expect things to tighten up considerably now that the series is all knotted at two games apiece, however. Note that the 'under' is a perfect 6-0 with the Hurricanes playing at home after losing two of their last three games this season with that situation producing an average total of just 3.7 goals. The 'under' is also 10-2 with the Hurricanes at home off a one-goal loss against a division opponent over the last three seasons, resulting in an average total of just 4.3 goals. For the Preds part, the 'under' has gone 11-3 when they play on the road after giving up three goals or more in three straight games over the last two seasons, with that spot producing an average total of just 4.9 goals. Despite the high-scoring nature of this playoff series, the 'under' remains 8-6 in the last 14 meetings in this series while five of the last seven matchups here in Raleigh have also gone 'under' the total. Take the under (10*). |
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05-24-21 | Blazers v. Nuggets -1.5 | Top | 109-128 | Win | 100 | 15 h 14 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Denver minus the points over Portland at 10:05 pm et on Monday. The Blazers took the opener of this series, which shouldn't have come as a big surprise as they played exceptionally well down the stretch this season and they've been terrific on the road, going 23-14. Here, I expect the Nuggets to bounce back, however, noting that they've gone 25-12 at home this season, outscoring the opposition by an average of six points, and have taken seven of their last 10 home meetings with Portland. The Blazers have now won consecutive games in this series after the Nuggets had taken the previous two. Note that the Nuggets check in 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games when trailing a playoff series, outscoring the opposition by 6.9 points per game. They've also a terrific 13-4 ATS when coming off two more consecutive losses over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 9.8 points. All respect to Portland, it was the better team in Game 1, but now it has accomplished its goal of earning at least a split here in Denver. Look for the Blazers to fall short on Monday. Take Denver (10*). |
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05-24-21 | Cardinals v. White Sox -173 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
MLB on ESPN Game of the Month. My selection is on Chicago over St. Louis at 8:10 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams are coming off disappointing weekend series' with the Cardinals dropping two of three games against the rival Cubs and the White Sox getting swept by the Yankees in the Bronx. Here, I look for the White Sox to bounce back at home as they once again look to tee off on a left-handed starting pitcher. Chicago's success against southpaw starters has been well-documented. It checks in 9-3 against lefties this season, averaging a whopping 8.0 runs per game and hitting just shy of .300 as a team. Cards starter Kwang-Hyun Kim has given up just one earned run in five consecutive starts but he's generally labored through those outings, most recently lasting just 3 1/3 innings in a start against the Padres last Sunday. Now that opposing teams have a little more tape on Kim, we've seen them have some success. To say that the Cards bullpen has been struggling would be an understatement. Note that Kim has posted a 3.86 ERA and an inflated 1.46 WHIP in three road starts this season, averaging less than four innings per start. That's concerning as behind Kim is a Cards bullpen that has recorded a 7.46 ERA and 2.01 WHIP over their last seven contests. Veteran Lance Lynn will counter for Chicago. He's off to a terrific start, having posted a 1.55 ERA and 0.98 WHIP through seven starts. Behind Lynn is a White Sox bullpen that has recorded a collective 3.38 ERA and 1.10 WHIP at home this season. Take Chicago (10*). |
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05-24-21 | Islanders v. Penguins -135 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -135 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
NHL East Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Pittsburgh over New York at 7:05 pm et on Monday. The Penguins took one on the chin on Saturday afternoon in Uniondale, suffering a lopsided 4-1 defeat to even the series up at two games apiece. Here, I look for Pittsburgh to answer back on home ice where it has gone 23-7 this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 2.4 goals. Note that Pittsburgh checks in 9-1 when revenging a road loss by two goals or more this season, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 2.3 goals in that spot. The Pens are also an incredible 16-2 at home off a loss over the last two seasons, holding a 1.8-goal scoring edge in that situation. This has been an incredibly tightly-contested series in recent years so it's no surprise at all that it's all tied up through four games. However, I do think home ice means something at this stage of the series and like the Pens to defend it here. Take Pittsburgh (10*). |
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05-23-21 | Grizzlies v. Jazz -8.5 | Top | 112-109 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 45 m | Show |
NBA First Round Blowout Game of the Year. My selection is on Utah minus the points over Memphis at 9:35 pm et on Sunday. The Grizzlies did well to take down the eight-seed with consecutive wins in the play-in tournament, including Friday's upset win over the Warriors in San Francisco. Here, however, I look for them to get a bit of a reality check against the well-rested Jazz. Utah has been positively dominant here at home this season, posting a 31-5 record while outscoring opponents by 13.2 points per game. While the Grizzlies were battling it out in a pair of close games against the Spurs and Grizzlies the Jazz were at home resting, and getting healthier with both Donovan Mitchell and Mike Conley expected to play in Sunday's playoff-opener. Mitchell obviously gives the Jazz a major boost. Even without him, they still put up gawdy offensive numbers, scoring more than 120 points in four of their final seven games down the stretch. While Memphis has been locked in defensively this will undoubtedly be a difficult challenge against a Jazz squad that averages over 117 points per game and shoots better than 47% from the field at home this season. I'm concerned that the Grizzlies offense might not be able to keep pace here considering they check in having shot 44.4% or worse from the field in each of their last four contests. Take Utah (10*). |
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05-23-21 | Everton v. Manchester City UNDER 3 | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 32 m | Show |
English Premier League Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Everton and Manchester City at 11 am et on Sunday. We won with Everton in its 1-0 victory over Wolverhampton on Wednesday but missed with Man City in its last match - a stunning 3-2 loss against Brighton and Hove after it was handed a red card and forced to play a man down for the game's final 80+ minutes. Here, Man City has little to play for other than to try to get back on track prior to the Champions League Final against Chelsea next Saturday. We're not likely to see Man City's best lineup but it certainly has the depth to put forth a strong effort in its EPL home finale, regardless who it sends to the pitch on Sunday. While Everton still has much to play for as it tries to qualify for the Europa League - even if it is a longshot at this point. The Toffees need to take care of business and likely get all three points here and also receive some help. Their best chance likely comes by keeping this match level for as long as possible and hope for a late breakthrough with Man City shifting its focus to next Saturday. The problem for Everton is it has managed just four goals in its last six matches combined. It has scored more than a single goal just once in its last 14 matches - that coming against a poor Tottenham defense in a 2-2 draw on April 16th. Off a uncharacteristically high-scoring affair against Brighton, look for Man City to settle things down here and regain its positive form heading into the Champions League Final. Take the under (10*). |
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05-22-21 | Storm -6 v. Wings | Top | 100-97 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
WNBA Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Seattle minus the points over Dallas at 8 pm et on Saturday. Dallas exploded for 94 points in its season-opening rout of Los Angeles last Friday night but should find the going much tougher as it returns home to host a Seattle squad that already appears to be in midseason form. The Storm are off to a 2-1 start with their lone loss coming in the second of a two-game set against Las Vegas. We should see the Seattle offense go off in this game as it faces a below-average Dallas defense that is missing a number of key cogs including two-way star Allisha Gray on Saturday. Arike Ogunbowale is an all-world talent for the Wings but she can't carry the team all on her own. I believe secondary scoring could be an issue moving forward with Gray sidelined as well as Satou Sabally. Seattle has taken five straight meetings in this series, going 4-1 ATS along the way. That includes a pair of double-digit wins in the bubble last summer. Note that the Storm check in an impressive 23-10 ATS after giving up 75 points or more in their last game over the last three seasons and 20-10 ATS against division opponents over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by more than 10 points per game in the latter situation. Take Seattle (10*). |
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05-22-21 | Rays v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -117 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
MLB A.L. East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Tampa Bay and Toronto at 7:35 pm et on Saturday. We saw a high-scoring contest between these two teams last night in Dunedin and I expect more of the same on Saturday. As expected, games played here in Dunedin have been generally high-scoring this season with the 'over' cashing at an 11-7 clip and an average total of nearly 11 runs. Shane McClanahan will take the ball for the Rays on Saturday. As opponents get more tape on the left-hander we're starting to see him struggle. Over his last two starts he has allowed seven earned runs on 10 hits over just 9 1/3 innings of work after he had given up only two earned runs in eight innings in his first two big league outings. The Jays are rolling along offensively right now having scored seven runs or more in four of their last five games. Robbie Ray will counter for Toronto. He's made great strides in terms of his command this season, issuing only two walks over his last five starts after handing out nine free passes in his first two outings. However, it seems to have come at the expense of his ability to keep the ball in the park. Ray has been lit up for 10 home runs in his last five starts, spanning 30 1/3 innings. The Rays have exploded offensively of late, scoring seven runs or more in six consecutive games. Take the over (10*). |
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05-22-21 | Canadiens v. Maple Leafs -167 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
NHL Blowout Game of the Month. My selection is on Toronto over Montreal at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. Credit the Canadiens for staging the Game 1 upset two nights ago, delivering a 2-1 victory despite getting outshot by a 36-30 margin. Even after losing John Tavares to a scary concussion, the Leafs shouldn't be down on themselves heading into Game 2 on Saturday night. They're still 18-11 at home this season and 6-3 in their last nine meetings with the Canadiens here in Toronto. They've been tremendous when revenging a home loss against an opponent this season, going 10-1 while outscoring the opposition by 1.3 goals on average. While the Leafs aren't necessarily known for their ability to overcome adversity, they're actually an impressive 23-11 the last 37 times they've been trailing a playoff series. The Canadiens check in 3-11 off a one-goal win over a division opponent over the last two seasons and 8-16 off a victory this season. Look for the Leafs to answer back in a big way on Saturday. Take Toronto (10*). |
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05-22-21 | Heat v. Bucks OVER 226.5 | Top | 107-109 | Loss | -113 | 7 h 56 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Playoff Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Milwaukee at 2:05 pm et on Saturday. These two teams just met last Saturday with Milwaukee cruising to a 122-108 victory. That game stayed 'under' the total but this time around we're dealing with a considerably lower number. I believe it will prove too low. The Bucks can pretty much put up 120 points per game here at home in their sleep. They check in ranked seventh in the league in floor percentage here at home and third in possessions per game. Milwaukee also ranks third in the NBA in total rebounding percentage here at home - a big advantage over a Heat squad that ranks 19th in rebound rate on the road - which should allow it to push the pace here. I do believe Miami can afford itself some extra scoring opportunities in transition here as well given it ranks seventh in the league in steals per defensive play on the road and Milwaukee sits in the bottom half of the league in turnovers per possession at home. The 'under' cashed in three of five games in last year's playoff series although I would take that with a grain of salt as those contests were played in unique circumstances in the bubble in Orlando. While the 'under' went 2-1 in three regular season meetings this year - all three games actually went 'over' the number we're dealing with at the time of writing. Take the over (10*). |
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05-21-21 | Mariners v. Padres OVER 7.5 | Top | 1-16 | Win | 103 | 15 h 43 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and San Diego at 10:10 pm et on Friday. The Mariners offense is coming off a miserable series against the Tigers which included being no-hit for the second time this season. Perhaps a change of scenery will serve them well. They'll be getting their third look at Padres starter Chris Paddack since last August. The last time they faced him here in San Diego they touched him up for six earned runs over just five innings in an 8-3 victory. Note that the 'over' is 11-2 in Paddack's last 13 starts with the total set between 7.0 and 8.5 runs with those games totaling an average of 10.6 runs. Chris Flexen will take the ball for Seattle. The 'over' has cashed at a perfect 8-0 clip in his eight career road starts as an underdog with those contests reaching an average total of 13.0 runs. Both bullpens are solid, but with neither starter showing the ability to work deep into ball games (Flexen averages around 5 2/3 innings per start while Paddack lasts just 4 1/3 innings on average), there's a good chance they get over-extended in this one. Take the over (10*). |
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05-21-21 | Avalanche v. Blues +1.5 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -123 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
NHL Puck-Line Game of the Week. My selection is on St. Louis +1.5 goals over Colorado at 9:35 pm et on Friday. This series looks like it's over by all accounts after consecutive lopsided victories by the Avs but with the scene shifting to St. Louis for Game 3 I do look for the Blues to put up a fight. Note that Colorado is just 21-30 when playing on the road after scoring four goals or more in its last game over the last three seasons. Meanwhile, St. Louis checks in 11-2 when playing at home off consecutive losses by three goals or more, outscoring the opposition by 1.5 goals on average in that situation. The Blues have more than held their own here at home against the Avalanche over the last three seasons, taking six of the last eight meetings. We'll grab the insurance goal with St. Louis here as the price warrants such a play, noting the Avs managed just one win by more than a single goal in four tries here in St. Louis this season. Take St. Louis +1.5 goals (10*). |
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05-21-21 | Jets v. Oilers -156 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -156 | 32 h 12 m | Show |
NHL First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Edmonton over Winnipeg at 9:05 pm et on Friday. This one sets up nicely for the Oilers as they look to bounce back following a disappointing 4-1 loss in Wednesday's series-opener. The Jets limped down the stretch losing nine of their final 12 regular season games including three against these same Oilers but perhaps that played a role in Edmonton taking a win for granted in Game 1. In fact, prior to Wednesday's contest, the Oilers had won six straight meetings with the Jets. Now it's the Oilers with all of the motivation as they look to even up the series before it shifts to Winnipeg for the next two games. Note that the Jets check in a miserable 3-13 after scoring three goals or more in three consecutive games over the last two seasons, outscored by an average margin of 1.2 goals in that spot. They're also just 6-17 when coming off a road victory by three goals or more over the last three seasons, outscored by 1.2 goals per game in that situation as well. Meanwhile, the Oilers check in 15-4 when coming off two or more consecutive losses over the last two seasons, averaging 3.8 goals per game while outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 0.9 goals in that spot. They're 7-1 when coming off consecutive losses by two or more goals over the same stretch, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.0 goal. Give the Jets all the credit in the world for stealing Game 1 as they were actually outshot by a fairly wide margin but they're a gritty road team, having gone 18-11 away from home this season, and found a way to get the 'W'. However, now that they've accomplished what was likely their goal of earning at least a split in the first two games in Edmonton, look for the Oilers to answer back with a convincing victory of their own on Friday. Take Edmonton (10*). |
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05-21-21 | Grizzlies v. Warriors UNDER 222 | Top | 117-112 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 10 m | Show |
NBA Play-In Tournament Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Memphis and Golden State at 9:05 pm et on Friday. We've seen the defense ramp up during the NBA Play-In Tournament and I expect that to continue on Friday night as the Grizzlies face the Warriors for the fourth time this season - this time with a playoff spot hanging in the balance. All three previous matchups have gone 'under' the total. In fact, eight of 10 meetings between these two teams over the last three season have gone 'under'. You would be hard-pressed to find two teams more locked in defensively right now. The Grizzlies have held six of their last seven opponents to 43.7% shooting or worse. On the flip side, however, Memphis has shot 44.4% or worse from the field itself in each of its last three contests. The Warriors have been even better than the Grizzlies defensively, holding 10 of their last 11 opponents to 46.5% shooting or worse. Memphis has seen the 'under' cash in seven of its last eight contests. Note that the 'under' is an incredible 13-1 with the Grizzlies playing on the road seeking revenge for a road loss by 10 points or more over the last three seasons, with those games totaling an average of 208.4 points. Meanwhile, the 'under' is a perfect 8-0 the last eight times the Warriors have come off a road loss by three points or less, as is the case here, with those contests reaching an average total of just 213.1 points. With everything to play for on Friday night, I'm expecting a tightly-contested, relatively low-scoring affair. Take the under (10*). |
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05-20-21 | Astros v. A's OVER 8.5 | Top | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 2 m | Show |
MLB A.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Oakland at 3:35 pm et on Thursday. We've already seen 20 runs cross home plate in the first two games of this series and I expect more of the same on Thursday afternoon. Note that the Astros check in averaging 5.4 runs per game in day games this season and north of six runs per contest over the last week. Meanwhile, the A's average 5.0 runs per game in day contests and prior to getting shut down by Zack Greinke last night, they had plated six runs or more in three of their last four games. Here, the A's will get their third look at Astros starter Luis Garcia since last September. Garcia was solid in his first outing against the A's but in his next he didn't record a single out, issuing three walks before allowing a grand slam in the first inning. Note that Garcia owns a 4.61 ERA on the road this season where he averages fewer than five innings per start. That opens the door for an Astros bullpen that entered last night's action sporting a collective 5.30 ERA on the road this season. Cole Irvin has posted solid overall numbers for the A's this season but again, there's some familiarity here as the Astros will face him for the third time this season. They've already touched him up for 12 hits and eight earned runs in 9 2/3 innings of work. Note that the A's bullpen entered last night's game having recorded a collective 7.30 ERA against division opponents this season and a 4.59 ERA here at home. Take the over (10*). |
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05-19-21 | Tigers v. Mariners -135 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -135 | 14 h 31 m | Show |
MLB Blowout Game of the Month. My selection is on Seattle over Detroit at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Mariners were no-hit by Spencer Turnbull last night and unfortunately we were along for the ride as we backed them in a 5-0 loss. Here, I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play, however, as Seattle hands the ball to highly-touted prospect Logan Gilbert for his second big league start. Gilbert was shaky in his debut against Cleveland last week, laboring through four innings in a 4-2 loss. Nerves were certainly a factor as Gilbert gave up a pair of home runs and also threw two wild pitches in that brief outing. There were positives to take away, however, as he struck out five and didn't issue a single walk. The fact that he 'only' allowed four runs was actually somewhat encouraging considering he didn't induce a single ground ball in the start. Gilbert draws a very manageable opponent here. While the Tigers have taken the first two games in this series they're still just 7-14 on the road this season and 11-19 against right-handed starting pitchers. Tarik Skubal and his winless record will get the start for Detroit on Tuesday. He checks in sporting an ugly 9.00 ERA and 1.91 WHIP in three road starts this season. The Tigers have lost all six of his starts here in 2021 and he's only managed to last an average of 4 2/3 innings. That opens the door for the possibility that we'll see extended work from a weak Tigers bullpen that has posted a collective 6.13 ERA this season including a 7.46 mark on the road. By contrast, the Mariners 'pen entered last night's action having recorded a 3.09 ERA here at home. Take Seattle (10*). |
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05-19-21 | Predators v. Hurricanes UNDER 5.5 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
NHL Central Division First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Nashville and Carolina at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a relatively high-scoring game to open this series on Monday night as the Hurricanes cruised to a 5-2 victory. The Predators know they don't have the offensive firepower to keep pace in that type of high-scoring environment, however. Keep in mind, they average just 2.6 goals per game on the road this season while the Hurricanes allow only 2.1 goals per game on home ice. We should see a better defensive effort from the Preds here as they've given up just 2.6 goals per game when coming off a loss by three goals or more this season. Meanwhile, the 'Canes have posted an 8-19 o/u record the last 27 times they've been leading a playoff series, with those contests totaling an average of just 4.5 goals. We've also seen the 'under' go an incredible 13-1 when Carolina plays at home after losing two of its last three games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, with those games totaling an average of only 4.4 goals. Finally, note that the 'under' is 4-2 in the last six meetings between these two teams here in Raleigh and 7-4 in their last 11 matchups overall. Take the under (10*). |
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05-19-21 | Sky v. Dream OVER 159 | Top | 85-77 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
WNBA Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Atlanta at 7 pm et on Wednesday. Both of these teams turned in 'under' result in their season debuts with the Sky cruising to a 70-56 win over the Washington Mystics and the Dream falling by a 78-67 score against the Connecticut Sun. I look for a different story to unfold on Wednesday night in Atlanta, however. Note that the 'over' is still 16-3 in the Sky's last 19 road games with those contests averaging a total of 170.8 points. Better still, the 'over' has gone a perfect 7-0 the last seven times Chicago has played consecutive road contests with those games totaling an average of 171.4 points. Much will be made about who is missing for the Sky in this one as both Allie Quigley and Stefanie Dolson are expected to miss. Keep in mind, both of those usual key contributors struggled in their season-opener, scoring a combined 11 points on a miserable 3-of-17 shooting. Their absence should simply mean more shots for the likes of Candace Parker and Kahleah Copper, who poured in 19 points in Chicago's season-opening win, showing the potential to build off of last year's breakout campaign. Atlanta saw four of five starters scoring in double-figures in its season-opening loss to Connecticut. That was certainly a tough matchup, as is this one, but I do look for improvement from the Dream offensively after they turned the ball over 13 times against the Sun. Highly-touted 2021 draft pick Aari McDonald struggled in her WNBA regular season debut after looking good in limited preseason action, scoring just one point on 0-for-4 shooting against the Sun. Expect the backcourt duo of McDonald and Chennedy Carter to make some noise in this one. Going back to the preseason, it's worth noting that the Sky and Dream check in T3rd and 5th, respectively, in terms of pace rating. The most recent meeting between these two teams resulted in 186 total points last September. Take the over (10*). |
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05-18-21 | Rockies v. Padres OVER 6.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -117 | 16 h 33 m | Show |
National League Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Colorado and San Diego at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a one-sided game between these two teams to open this series last night, with just seven total runs scored - all coming from the Padres. While I look for San Diego to turn in another fine showing at the plate, I think Colorado can help us along in terms of getting 'over' the low total on Tuesday as well. These same two pitchers, Austin Gomber and Blake Snell, matched up last week in Colorado with the Rockies prevailing by a 3-2 score but I expect a different story to unfold here. Gomber has already logged a lot of innings in his first year with the Rockies and we've seen a strong home-road dichotomy play out. In four road outings, Gomber has posted an ugly 7.56 ERA and 1.44 WHIP, averaging just five innings per start. That opens the door for the Rockies dreadful bullpen to potentially be forced into extended duty on Tuesday, noting that unit entered last night's action sporting a collective 9.39 ERA over their last seven games. Gomber continues to struggle with his command having posted a walk rate north of 12% while also giving up a ton of fly balls, to the tune of a 30.9% fly ball rate - more than 7% higher than the MLB average. Blake Snell has had his own issues with command, also recording an inflated walk rate - a staggering 15.2%! Snell has been terrific here at home, posting a 2.29 ERA and 1.22 WHIP, but averaging less than five innings per start. It's certainly worth noting that the Rockies have gone 6-4 against left-handed starting pitching (compared to 9-23 against righties). Colorado is hitting .282 against southpaw starters this season. Take the over (10*). |
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05-18-21 | Tigers v. Mariners -118 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -118 | 14 h 18 m | Show |
MLB A.L. Revenge Game of the Year. My selection is on Seattle over Detroit at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Mariners suffered a not-so-surprising letdown last night as they couldn't keep the positive momentum building after a series win over the Indians that was capped by a victory against Shane Bieber on Sunday. I do expect them to bounce back on Tuesday as they look to post their fifth win in their last six tries at home against Detroit. Spencer Turnbull will get the start for the Tigers. He pitched well in his most recent start but that was at home against a Royals club that was mired in a deep hitting slump. The Tigers have won two of Turnbull's five starts this season but both came at home with the other coming against the lowly Pirates. In two road outings, Turnbull has posted a 6.75 ERA and 1.88 WHIP. In his lone previous start against the Mariners back in 2009, Seattle prevailed by a 7-2 score in Detroit. While the Tigers bullpen has shown some improvement lately, this is still a group capable of blowing up on any given night, entering last night's action sporting a collective 6.19 ERA this season. Justin Dunn will counter for the Mariners. His command issues continue to be a problem, with a walk rate north of 15%, however his stuff is good enough to fool most big league hitters, as evidenced by his .181 opponents batting average (that's on par with his career opponents BA). The Mariners have managed to win each of Dunn's two home starts this season. While he did labor through his last start, that came on the road as a +225 underdog against the Dodgers. I look for Dunn to bounce back here noting that the Tigers check in 10-19 against right-handed starters this season. The Mariners bullpen has generally been solid this season, particularly here at home where it entered last night's game with a collective 3.09 ERA. Take Seattle (10*). |
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05-18-21 | Lightning v. Panthers +119 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 51 m | Show |
NHL First Round Revenge Game of the Year. My selection is on Florida over Tampa Bay at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Lightning got past the Panthers on a late goal from Brayden Point in Sunday's thrilling series-opener between these in-state rivals. I look for Florida to answer back with a victory on Tuesday night. The Panthers know just how difficult it would be to take four of the next five games should they fall into an 0-2 series hole on Tuesday. After all, Tampa Bay has taken 11 of the last 17 meetings in this series. The Panthers should remain confident here, however, noting that they've held their own against the Bolts this season, going 5-4 in nine meetings. With a win here on Tuesday, the Panthers would even up the series here in Sunrise over the last three seasons at five wins apiece. Note that Tampa Bay checks into this game having gone 0-4 when playing on the road off a one-goal road victory this season, outscored by an average margin of 1.8 goals while allowing 4.8 goals per game in that situation. In fact, the Lightning are just 19-23 when coming off a one-goal win regardless of the location over the last two seasons. Meanwhile, the Panthers have gone 14-3 after giving up four goals or more in their last game this season, outscoring opponents by 1.2 goals on average in that spot. They also check in a perfect 8-0 this season after a game where both teams scored at least four goals, as is the case here, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.9 goals while averaging 4.3 goals per game in that situation. At 20-9 on home ice this season, outscoring opponents by 1.0 goal per game, I look for the Panthers to come up with a big effort to even this series on Tuesday night. Take Florida (10*). |
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05-18-21 | Lynx -1.5 v. Liberty | Top | 75-86 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
WNBA Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Minnesota minus the points over New York at 7 pm et on Tuesday. New York is off to a perfect 2-0 start to the season but is fortunate to have faced the lowly Indiana Fever twice, and it's worth noting it needed a last-second game-winning shot from Sabrina Ionescu to secure one of those victories. Minnesota suffered a narrow two-point loss in its home-opener against Phoenix but should bounce back here against a weaker opponent. Keep in mind, the Lynx have taken four of their last five meetings with the Liberty, sweeping last year's two matchups by 26 and 30-point margins. Minnesota is a perennial WNBA title contender and should be right there in the conversation this season with the addition of Kayla McBride, who contributed 17 points in the season-opener. Of course the Lynx will be even stronger once they get Napheesa Collier back from quarantine later this week but for now, I believe this is a matchup they can handle with the Liberty missing a number of key players as well. Take Minnesota (10*). |
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05-17-21 | Indians v. Angels OVER 9 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 14 h 6 m | Show |
MLB American League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Los Angeles at 9:35 pm et on Monday. There are a number of factors that lead me to believe we're in for a high-scoring affair in Anaheim on Monday night. The Indians will certainly be eager to bring an end to their three-game skid and get back on track at the plate. This looks like an ideal spot to do just that against a poor Angels pitching staff. Patrick Sandoval will get the start for Los Angeles on Monday - his first of the season after being used as a long reliever. Sandoval has yet to figure it out at the big league level, posting a career 5.40 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. In 7 1/3 innings of relief duty this season he has recorded a 55.0% hard-hit ball percentage and a 92.4 mph exit velocity off opposing bats - both considerably north of the MLB average. He's struggled to keep the ball in the park throughout his career, posting an ugly 5.3% home run rate, which is 1.8% higher than the MLB average. Rookie Sam Hentges will counter for Cleveland. He was never able to perform particularly well at the minor league level and now his struggles have carried over to the big leagues as well. Opponents are hitting .316 off of Hentges in 13 2/3 innings this season and he's posted a 32.6% fly ball rate and 6.4% home run rate. He was bailed out time and time again by the Cubs in his last start but I don't think he'll be so fortunate here. Both teams possess struggling bullpens. The Indians got off to a great start in that department this season but have taken a negative turn lately. Meanwhile, the Angels 'pen has been awful from the drop here in 2021. Take the over (10*). |
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05-17-21 | Predators v. Hurricanes -179 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
NHL Central Division First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Carolina over Nashville at 8:05 pm et on Monday. Nashville went on an incredible run from the middle of March on to earn a playoff spot but what is its reward? A date with the first-place Hurricanes in the opening round. As I noted in my playoff preview article, home ice is going to mean something in this series as the Hurricanes check in 20-8 in Raleigh this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.3 goals. While Nashville went 18-10 on home ice during the regular season, it was just 13-15 on the road, allowing 3.1 goals per game in the process. The Preds have had little recent success here in Raleigh, dropping five of the last six meetings in this series. While Nashville did close out the regular season with consecutive victories over the Canes, those both came at home, and Carolina had essentially already checked out on the regular season. Note that Nashville is now in a poor position, having gone 10-22 when coming off consecutive wins over the last two seasons, outscored by 0.7 goals on average in that spot. Here, I expect to see a much different Canes squad, one that will be eager to get this postseason off to a positive start after such a disappointing early exit at the hands of the Bruins last year. While we're being asked to lay a fairly steep price to back Carolina here, I believe it could be even higher. Take Carolina (10*). |
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05-16-21 | Wild v. Golden Knights OVER 5.5 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
NHL West Division First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Vegas at 3 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'under' in the most recent meeting between these two teams but I'll go the other way and back the 'over' in this spot. While the Golden Knights are heavily favored to win this series I don't expect the Wild to back down one bit as the series opens in Las Vegas on Sunday afternoon. Note that Minnesota has actually taken four of the last seven meetings here at T-Mobile Arena and checks in a perfect 7-0, averaging 3.9 goals per game when coming off consecutive losses this season, as is the case here. The 'over' has gone 7-1 with the Wild revenging a home loss against an opponent this season, with that situation producing an average total of 7.3 goals. Interestingly, we've also seen the 'over' go 13-3 with the Knights playing just their second game in the last five days over the last two seasons, with an average total of 7.4 goals in that spot. The Knights have of course been dominant at home this season, skating to a 21-7 record while averaging 3.5 goals per game with the 'over' cashing at a 16-12 clip. After a very brief scoring lull in early April, the Knights went on a tear down the stretch, scoring four goals or more in 11 of their final 16 regular season games. Likewise, the Wild also picked up the pace offensively down the stretch, producing four goals or more in 10 of their last 14 contests. Take the over (10*). |
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05-15-21 | Aces v. Storm OVER 166 | Top | 83-97 | Win | 100 | 5 h 18 m | Show |
WNBA Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Las Vegas and Seattle at 3 pm et on Saturday. This has the makings of a highly-entertaining season-opener for these two teams after Seattle swept Las Vegas in last year's WNBA Final. Both teams are at a little less than full strength to open this season, as is the case for most WNBA squads here in 2021. But both are also loaded with talent and return enough key cogs to get the season off to a fluent offensive start here on Saturday. If anything, the absence of C Mercedes Russell for the Storm should help open things up on the interior for Las Vegas. Meanwhile, the Storm are obviously brimming with explosive offensive talent led by Sue Bird and Breanna Stewart. The Storm have scored 84 points or more in four straight meetings and I expect them to surpass that number again here. Meanwhile, the Aces will be eager to gain an ounce of revenge and might just have the best offense in the entire league. Expect a high-scoring affair here. Take the over (10*). |
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05-14-21 | Sun -2.5 v. Dream | Top | 78-67 | Win | 100 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
WNBA Game of the Week. My selection is on Connecticut minus the points over Atlanta at 7:30 pm et on Friday. I actually like the prospects of both of these teams but Connecticut is the squad that has legitimate championship aspirations, even if the odds are long on the Sun reaching that pinnacle for the first time in franchise history. The Sun return most of their roster from a year ago - a team that got off to a slow start before eventually rounding into form and going on a deep playoff run. While the Sun won't have Alyssa or Jasmine Thomas for Friday's opener, they do have Jonquel Jones back after she opted-out of the 2020 campaign, and should also have the services of Briann January (for limited minutes at least) after there was some question whether she would be able to start the season due to Covid quarantine. Losing Alyssa Thomas for the season to a torn achilles was obviously a major blow, but I do feel the Sun have the depth to stay competitive, especially if rookie DiJonai Carrington can exceed (or even just meet) expectations following an impressive training camp. Look out for Brionna Jones as well as she took on a bigger role in Jonquel Jones' absence last season and comes off an incredible championship season in the Czech Republic League. Atlanta has the potential to improve considerably following its second consecutive losing season but I'm not sure we're going to see it all work right out of the gate. The Dream will be without Tiffany Hayes and Cheyenne Parker for their opener, which means they'll rely heavily on sophomore guard Chennedy Carter and third-overall draft pick Aari MacDonald. Head coach Nicki Collen bolted for Baylor on short notice, leaving the team under the guidance of interim coach Mike Petersen. With a lot of new pieces to work with, it will likely take some time to figure things out. The potential is there for the Dream to be one of the entertaining teams in the league with a guard-heavy rotation, but on night one of the regular season, I expect them to fall short against a more seasoned Sun squad. Take Connecticut (10*). |
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05-13-21 | Blazers v. Suns OVER 233 | Top | 117-118 | Win | 100 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Portland and Phoenix at 10:10 pm et on Thursday. This game sets up as a track meet with the Blazers playing the second of back-to-back nights off an upset win in Utah last night and the Suns returning home off a disappointing 0-2 road trip against the Lakers and Warriors. Portland got bogged down a bit offensively against a quality Jazz defense last night but should get plenty of good looks against a struggling Suns defense that checks in fourth-worst in the league in opponents floor percentage over their last three games. The Suns are in a prime bounce-back spot at home, where they average just shy of 117 points per game and shoot 49.5% as a team this season. They've absolutely torched the Blazers in two previous meetings this season, scoring 132 and 127 points. The 'over' has cashed in three of the last four meetings between these two teams here in Phoenix. The 'over' is 20-8 with Portland revenging a home loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, with those contests totaling an average of 239 points. Take the over (10*). |
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05-13-21 | Yankees v. Rays +1.5 | Top | 1-9 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
A.L. Run-Line Game of the Month. My selection is on Tampa Bay +1.5 runs over New York at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. I really like the way this one sets up for the Rays as they try to avoid the series sweep at the hands of the Yankees on Thursday night. Tampa Bay has run into a couple of hot pitchers over the last two nights, unable to get anything going against Jordan Montgomery and Gerrit Cole. Here, it will benefit from facing what I would consider the weak link in the Yankees rotation in Jameson Taillon. The Yanks are just 2-4 with Taillon on the hill this season and he's posted an ugly 10.56 ERA and 1.83 WHIP in two road starts - both losses. We did see Taillon work into the seventh inning in his most recent start, but that was at home against the light-hitting Nationals and New York still lost the game 11-4 (we won with the underdog Nats in that game). Crafty veteran Rich Hill will take the ball for the Rays tonight. After a rough start to the season he has righted the ship over his last three starts, allowing just two earned runs on five hits over 15 innings of work. Hill has already guided the Rays to a victory against the Yankees this season, 10-5 back on April 9th. Hill's 4.66 home ERA is slightly misleading as he's recorded a stellar 0.98 WHIP here at Tropicana Field. Despite losing the first two games in this series, Tampa Bay is still 12-9 at home against New York over the last three seasons, and 5-3 overall against the Yankees here in 2021. I'll grab the insurance run with the Rays here as the very reasonable price warrants such a play. Take Tampa Bay +1.5 runs (10*). |
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05-13-21 | Giants v. Pirates UNDER 8 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
N.L. Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between San Francisco and Pittsburgh at 6:35 pm et on Thursday. |
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05-12-21 | Kings v. Avalanche UNDER 5.5 | Top | 0-6 | Loss | -104 | 15 h 52 m | Show |
NHL West Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Colorado at 9:05 pm et on Wednesday. The 'under' has ruled this series, cashing in four of the last five meetings in Colorado and nine of the last 12 matchups between these two teams overall. The Avs are absolutely locked in right now as they battle for top spot in the West Division - and the entire league. They've allowed two goals or less in three straight games, including consecutive 3-2 victories over the Kings in Los Angeles last week. Note that Colorado is allowing just 2.0 goals per game on home ice this season, where it has gone 19-6. The Kings check in having scored two goals or less in six of their last eight games. The 'under' has cashed in eight of their last 10 contests. Note that the 'under' has gone 32-17 the last 49 times the Kings have played on the road after losing three of their last four games, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of just 5.2 goals. We've also seen the 'under' go 25-12 with the Kings heading on the road following two or more straight home games over the last two seasons, with that spot resulting in an average total of only 5.0 goals. Meanwhile, the Avs have given up just 2.2 goals per game after winning three of their last four games this season, with the 'under' going 15-7 in that spot with an average total of just 5.1 goals. Colorado has also posted a 10-22 o/u record when playing at home off a one-goal win over the last two seasons. As much as the Kings would like to play spoiler here, they've managed to score just one goal in two previous games in Colorado this season. Take the under (10*). |
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05-12-21 | Wizards v. Hawks -6 | Top | 116-120 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
NBA Southeast Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Atlanta minus the points over Washington at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. This is a brutal spot for the Wizards as they play a second straight game in Atlanta (following an off day yesterday) on the heels of a momentum-killing one-point loss here on Monday (note they outscored the Hawks by 16 points and scored 45 points in the fourth quarter, only to fall one point short). Washington has been battling hard to earn a spot in the NBA Play-in Tournament but how bad do they really want it apart from Russell Westbrook who continues to stuff the statsheet and chase individual records? The Hawks have won eight straight games here at home with the first seven of those victories coming by 12, 16, 15, 7, 11, 9 and 32-point margins prior to Monday's close call. Atlanta is in an excellent spot here having gone 8-1 ATS when playing at home off a home win this season, outscoring the opposition by 9.4 points on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Wizards check in allowing a whopping 122 points per game when playing with double-revenge, as is the case here after dropping the previous two meetings this season. The Wizards have been involved in so many tightly-contested games lately - I simply expect them to run out of gas in this spot. Keep in mind, Bradley Beal remains sidelined with a hamstring injury while the Hawks are as healthy as they've been in quite some time after dealing with numerous key injuries over the course of the season. The Hawks are a good defensive team that hasn't played like it over the last couple of games but I look for them to turn in a solid performance in that department here, noting they have held opponents to 45.6% shooting on their home floor this season. Take Atlanta (10*). |
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05-12-21 | Oilers v. Canadiens UNDER 6 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -113 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
North Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Edmonton and Montreal at 5:05 pm et on Wednesday. Monday's matchup between these two teams found its way 'over' the total as the Oilers prevailed 4-3 in overtime. That marked Edmonton's third straight 'over' result which is worth mentioning as it hasn't posted more than three consecutive 'overs' since a five-game streak back in the last week of January. While the Oilers are known for their offense, they can play some defense as well, having allowed three goals or less in eight of their last nine games overall. The Canadiens have scored three goals or less in six straight and 10 of their last 11 games overall and average just 2.8 goals per game on home ice this season. While they would certainly like to right the ship here off of four consecutive losses, that hasn't been a favorable spot for them in recent years, averaging just 2.5 goals per game while going 4-10 in that situation over the last two seasons. Note that the 'under' has gone a perfect 6-0 with the Oilers playing on the road after allowing three goals or more in three straight games over the last two seasons, with that situation totaling an average of just 4.5 goals. We've also seen the 'under' cash at an 11-3 clip with Edmonton playing on the road after scoring three goals or more in consecutive games this season, with an average total of just 4.9 goals in that spot. For Montreal's part, it has posted a 9-17 o/u record when revenging a same-season loss against an opponent this season with that situation producing an average total of 5.4 goals. The Habs have done a fairly solid job containing the Oilers offense in eight previous meetings this season, allowing just 2.3 goals per game. The 'under' has gone 4-2 in the last six meetings in Montreal and 7-5 in the last 12 matchups between these two teams overall. Take the under (10*). |
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05-12-21 | Arsenal v. Chelsea -114 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -114 | 7 h 1 m | Show |
EPL Match of the Month. My selection is on Chelsea over Arsenal (three-way betting) at 3:15 pm et on Wednesday. Arsenal is coming off a 3-0 drubbing of West Brom on Sunday but let's face it, the Gunners haven't faced anyone of substance in EPL action since back on April 3rd, when they suffered a 3-0 loss at the hands of Liverpool. After failing to advance to the Europa League Final following a disappointing 0-0 draw in the second leg of its semi-final matchup with Villareal, there's simply little left to motivate this Arsenal side on Wednesday. Meanwhile, Chelsea would all but wrap up a spot in the EPL top-four with a victory here and brings excellent form having posted three straight victories overall and five wins in its last seven matches going back to mid-April. Chelsea has added fuel having dropped a 3-1 decision against the Gunners back in December. Of course, this has been a different Blues squad under the guidance of former PSG boss Thomas Tuchel. The Blues of course have an FA Cup Final match with Leicester coming up this weekend, not to mention the Champions League Final against Manchester City later this month. In other words, Chelsea has everything in front of it right now while Arsenal is simply playing out the string. Neither squad is fully fit entering this match but I'll give the considerable edge to the Blues with their superior depth. Take Chelsea (10*). |
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05-11-21 | Nets v. Bulls OVER 232 | Top | 115-107 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Brooklyn and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. It's been defense-optional for the Nets much of the season under the guidance of first-year head coach Steve Nash, particularly on the road where they've allowed the opposition to shoot better than 47% from the field. Note that opponents are averaging 117 points per game with an average total of 239.2 points with the Nets playing as a road favorite this season. The 'over' has cashed at a 16-7 clip in that situation. On the flip side, the Bulls haven't seen the 'over' cash since April 26th against the Heat. They're healthy though, and I believe they have the personnel to give the Nets a run in what has the potential to be a very high-scoring affair on Tuesdaynight. Even Bulls sophomore Coby White has been contributing consistently at the offensive end of the floor lately, scoring 21 points or more in three of the last four games. With Zach LaVine back and seemingly getting stronger with each passing game (he scored 30 points in Sunday's win in Detroit), there's reason to believe the Bulls can put up some big offensive numbers down the stretch. Meanwhile, the Nets scored 125 points despite just 66 field goal attempts in Saturday's 125-119 win in Denver. That result snapped a four-game 'under' streak for Brooklyn, although it's worth noting that two of those four 'under' results would have gone 'over' the number we're dealing with here tonight. The last meeting between these two teams totaled just 222 points back on April 4th but the Nets were without Kevin Durant for that contest and Kyrie Irving made good on just 12 field goal attempts for 24 points. Here, I'll note that the Nets are averaging 120.8 points per game with an average total of 239.5 points when revenging a loss against an opponent as a favorite this season, as is the case here. The 'over' has still cashed in five of the last eight meetings in this series and I look for that trend to continue here. Take the over (10*). |
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05-11-21 | Canucks v. Jets OVER 5.5 | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -117 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
NHL Revenge Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Vancouver and Winnipeg at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. Last night's meeting between these two teams got off to a fast start with three goals in the first period but fizzled from there as Canucks goaltender Thatcher Demko stood on his head turning aside 39 of 40 shots in a 3-1 Vancouver victory. The Jets are struggling mightily right now but I do expect them to display some push-back here tonight and they should catch a break with Braden Holtby likely to get the nod in goal for Vancouver (the Canucks have yet to give a goaltender consecutive starts in a back-to-back spot this season). Of course, the veteran Holtby has struggled this season with a GAA well north of three and a save percentage under .900. We've seen the Canucks score three goals or more in three straight games and eight of 13 contests since returning to the ice following a long Covid-induced layoff last month. The 'over' checks in 18-8 with the Jets coming off a home loss against a division opponent over the last three seasons, with those contests totaling an average of 6.7 goals. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 21-11 with the Canucks following a game where four total goals or less were scored, with that spot producing an average total of 6.6 goals. We've seen the Canucks run out of gas defensively on long road trips in recent years, allowing 4.0 goals per game when playing a fourth consecutive road game over the last two seasons, with that situation producing 6.5 total goals on average. While the 'under' has cashed in six of the last seven meetings in this series, it's certainly worth noting that we've seen a number of 6's and 6.5's over that stretch. We're dealing with a more reasonable total here tonight. Take the over (10*). |
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05-11-21 | Royals -126 v. Tigers | Top | 7-8 | Loss | -126 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
MLB A.L. Central Game of the Year. My selection is on Kansas City over Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. |
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05-10-21 | Pelicans v. Grizzlies UNDER 228 | Top | 110-115 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
NBA Southwest Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between New Orleans and Memphis at 8:10 pm et on Monday. The Pelicans continue to battle to earn their way into the play-in tournament but off a big come-from-behind win in Charlotte last night I can't help but feel a letdown could be in order here. Without Zion in the lineup, the Pelicans have been forced to change their identity a little bit and come in off consecutive stellar defensive efforts in his absence. In fact, the 'under' is now 8-1 in the Pelicans last nine games overall. The fact that New Orleans scored 118 and 144 points in two previous wins over the Grizzlies this season should certainly peak Memphis' interest heading into this one. Like New Orleans, Memphis also ramped up its defensive play last time out, holding Toronto to under 39% shooting in a 10-point victory. That was the second time in their last six games the Grizzlies held an opponent to fewer than 100 points - a true accomplishment in today's NBA. Note that the 'under' has gone 11-2 the last 13 times the Grizzlies have found themselves in a situation looking for revenge for a loss by 20 points or more, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of just 219.4 points. While the Pelicans have more serious injury concerns with Zion and Brandon Ingram sidelined, the Grizzlies have issues of their own with underrated scorer Grayson Allen ruled out for Monday's game. It's certainly worth noting that Grizzlies super-soph Ja Morant has been slumping a bit lately as well, scoring 12 points or less in four of his last seven games. Take the under (10*). |
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05-10-21 | Stars -130 v. Blackhawks | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
NHL Central Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Dallas over Chicago at 8:05 pm et on Monday. The Blackhawks got the better of the Stars in a somewhat meaningless affair last night in Chicago but it's certainly worth noting that Dallas didn't quit, outshooting the Blackhawks by a wide margin of 39-25. I look for the Stars to wrap up an otherwise disappointing season with a victory on Monday night. It's easy to forget that the Stars reached the Stanley Cup Final in the Edmonton bubble last fall. While the 2021 campaign has certainly not gone their way, the same could be said for the Blackhawks. Here, Dallas is set up well, having gone 20-13 when revenging a loss where their opponent scored four goals or more over the last three seasons, allowing just 2.5 goals per game in that situation. The Blackhawks check in a miserable 2-9 at home off a win by two goals or more over a division opponent over the last two seasons, outscored by an average margin of 1.4 goals in that spot. Worse still, Chicago is 0-6 when at home off consecutive wins over division opponents over the last three seasons, allowing a whopping 5.2 goals per game and outscored by 2.7 goals on average in that situation. While they have nothing but pride to play for, the Stars have generally done a good job of tightening things up in similar situations, allowing just 2.1 goals per game off a division loss by two goals or more over the last three seasons. Take Dallas (10*). |
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05-10-21 | Islanders v. Bruins UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
NHL East Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Boston at 7:05 pm et on Monday. We're likely only seeing a 5.5 here due to the fact that both teams are coming off 'over' results on Saturday and have generally been trending in that direction over the last week or so. I'm not anticipating a 'high-event' game on Monday night as the Isles wrap up their regular season schedule in Boston. New York snapped its three-game losing streak with a 5-1 victory over New Jersey on Saturday (we won with the Isles) but has still scored three goals or less in seven of its last nine games overall and checks in averaging a miserable 2.0 goals per game on the road this season. Boston has scored exactly four goals in back-to-back games and that plays into our favor here, noting that the 'under' has gone a perfect 5-0 after the B's have put up four goals or more in consecutive games this season, with those contests totaling an average of just 3.4 goals. The 'under' also checks in 8-2 with the Bruins playing at home following an 'over' result, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 5.0 goals. Meanwhile, the Isles have posted a 1-7 o/u mark when heading on the road following a home game this season, with those contests totaling an average of just 3.5 goals. We've also seen the 'under' cash at a 15-5 clip with the Isles coming off a victory by four goals or more over the last three seasons, with those games totaling an average of only 4.7 goals. Finally, the 'under' has cashed in four of the last five meetings between these two teams in Boston and eight of their last 11 matchups overall. Take the under (10*). |
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05-08-21 | Thunder v. Warriors -14 | Top | 97-136 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Oklahoma City at 10:10 pm et on Saturday. The Warriors have already crushed the Thunder twice this season including two nights ago as they rolled to a 21-point victory. I don't mind laying all the points with the Warriors here as they check in playing phenomenal defensive basketball having held four straight opponents to 43.3% or worse shooting. They won three of those four games, with all three victories coming by at least 15 points. The Thunder are simply playing out the string at this point and have managed to shoot better than 40.9% just once over their last five contests. While they'll be looking for quick revenge here, no more so than last time out as they were looking to avenge an even more lopsided 147-109 loss at home back on April 14th. The fact is, the Thunder are overmatched against most opponents right now and the Warriors aren't likely to sleepwalk through this one as they continue to fight for playoff positioning in a crowded Western Conference. Note that the SU winner has also covered the spread in 40 of the Warriors last 41 games overall. I look for that trend to continue tonight. Take Golden State (10*). |
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05-08-21 | Devils v. Islanders -220 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 56 m | Show |
NHL Chalk Game of the Month. My selection is on New York over New Jersey at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. The Islanders have picked a bad time to start slumping, losers of three games in a row against non-playoff opponents in the Sabres and Devils. It hasn't been for lack of trying as they've fired 81 shots on goal over the last two games. Here, I look for the Isles to finally get back in the win column as they fall in a positive situation having gone 25-12 after losing three of their last four games over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by 0.9 goals on average in that situation. Isles head coach Barry Trotz has a way of getting his teams back up after a tough stretch, with his teams having gone 20-5 the last 25 times they've come off consecutive losses against division opponents, as is the case here. Note that the Devils have allowed a whopping 4.5 goals per game when playing on the road after allowing one goal or less in their last game over the last three seasons, outscored by an average margin of 1.7 goals in that spot. New Jersey's victory on Thursday night was just their second in their last six tries over the last three seasons here on Long Island. Look for the Isles to get back on track here before a tough regular season finale on the road against the Bruins. Take New York (10*). |
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05-07-21 | Blues v. Golden Knights -158 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
NHL Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Vegas over St. Louis at 10:05 pm et on Friday. Both of these teams will be heading to the postseason but the Knights have a little more to play for in this two-game set as they try to lock up home ice advantage throughout with an outside shot at grabbing the league's top overall seed. They'll also be playing with revenge on their minds after suffering a 3-1 loss in St. Louis back on April 7th (the Knights outshot the Blues 51-35 in that game). Note that Vegas has gone an incredible 17-2 when revenging a road loss by two goals or more against an opponent over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.3 goals in that situation. The Knights are a terrific positive momentum play here having gone 27-7 all-time off a one-goal victory over a division opponent, outscoring opponents by 1.6 goals on average in that spot. It's the opposite story for the Blues as they limp to Las Vegas off an embarrassing home loss against the lowly Ducks. Note that St. Louis has gone a miserable 11-21 when coming off a one-goal loss over the last two seasons, outscored by an average margin of 0.7 goals in that situation. The Blues also check in 3-8 after winning four or five of their last six games this season, as is the case here, allowing 3.2 goals per game in that spot. While we have seen a few defensive lapses from the Knights lately, those have been few and far between here at home, where they allow just 2.2 goals per game on the season. Take Vegas (10*). |
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05-07-21 | Cavs v. Mavs UNDER 221 | Top | 90-110 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Dallas at 8:40 pm et on Friday. Cleveland catches Dallas in an advantageous spot on Friday night, rested and waiting while the Mavs were involved in a thrilling victory over the Nets in a marquee showdown just last night. Of course, the Cavs don't really have the personnel to take full advantage as they check in having lost eight straight and 11 of their last 12 games overall. I do think we at least see the Cavs show some pride defensively here after allowing 122 or more points in four straight games and six consecutive opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field. This isn't a spot where we're likely to see the Mavs go off offensively on the second of back-to-back nights. There's always the chance that they end up resting some starters (most notably Luka Doncic) although we'll operate under the assumption that they'll have the same lineup that we saw last night at the very least. Note that the Mavs have actually been a weaker offensive team at home compared to on the road this season, averaging 110.6 points per game on 46.6% shooting entering last night's contest. After last night's game managed to say 'under' the total, the 'under' is now 20-14 with the Mavs playing at home this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 20-13 in all Cavs road games this season, where they average just 100.1 points per game on 44.1% shooting. Their offense isn't operating with much efficiency right now, largely due to the absence of standout sophomore Darius Garland, who is sidelined with an ankle injury. There seem to be a lot of instances where the Cavs are just standing around waiting for Collin Sexton to take over the game. He's a dynamic scorer to be sure, but he obviously needs help for the Cavs to be competitive. Note that Cleveland has shot 43.4% or worse from the field in four of its last six games, most recently shooting 40.2% in a 36-point rout at the hands of the Blazers, at home no less. Take the under (10*). |
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05-06-21 | Lakers v. Clippers OVER 211 | Top | 94-118 | Win | 100 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
NBA on TNT Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between the Lakers and Clippers at 10:10 pm et on Thursday. These two teams were involved in a sleepy 104-86 affair in favor of the Clippers back on Easter Sunday but I expect a different story to unfold in Thursday's rematch. The Lakers are coming off a low-scoring victory over the Nuggets on Monday night. It's worth noting that only once over their last 15 games have we seen the Lakers post consecutive 'under' results. With Anthony Davis back on the court there's reason to believe they can put up more of a fight against the Clippers than we saw from them in their last meeting back on April. The Clippers haven't looked overly motivated in the last couple of weeks, dropping three of their last four games SU and five in a row ATS. Note that the Clips average a whopping 124.3 points per game after losing five or six of their last seven games ATS over the last two seasons, with those contests totaling an average of 228 points. I certainly expect to see the Clippers get up for this matchup and I'm confident they can break out of their offensive funk, noting that they average 116.4 points per game on 49.1% shooting here at home this season. Defensively, the Clippers are an elite team but haven't been quite as locked in lately, allowing three of their last four opponents to shoot 47.3% or better from the field. Note that the 'over' is 41-24 with the Clippers at home coming off a win over the last three seasons with that situation producing an average total of 227.4 points. While the 'under' is 20-11 in Lakers road games this season (I realize calling this a 'road' game is a stretch) those contests have actually totaled an average of 212.9 points - just north of the number we're working with tonight. Take the over (10*). |
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05-06-21 | Blackhawks v. Hurricanes UNDER 6 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 103 | 22 h 53 m | Show |
NHL Central Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Carolina at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. Carolina has cruised to consecutive wins over the Blackhawks with both games going 'over' the total. Here on Thursday, I'm anticipating a reversal of sorts with a lower-scoring affair. Note that we've seen the Canes suffer a bit of a lull in similar situations, having averaged just 2.4 goals per game when coming off consecutive victories by two goals or more over the last two seasons. That situation has produced an average total of just 5.2 goals on the last 16 occasions it has come up. Note that the Blackhawks are averaging just 2.4 goals per game on the road this season and have been fortunate to score five goals in the first two games of this three-game set, noting that the Canes have been incredibly stout defensively at home this season, allowing only 2.1 goals per contest. I'm not convinced we see a real high-energy game here from either team as both teams wind down the regular season - the Blackhawks looking forward to hitting the golf course and the Canes preparing for what they hope will be a deep playoff run. We've seen similar situations this season where two teams play one another three times or more in the same location and by the end of the stretch, the intensity tends to wane. I expect a similar story to unfold in a potentially low-event contest on Thursday in Raleigh. Take the under (10*). |
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05-06-21 | Rangers v. Bruins UNDER 5.5 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
NHL East Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Boston at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Rangers are coming off consecutive emotional losses against the Capitals and I really question how much they have left in the tank for this one, playing their third game in four nights and the second of back-to-backs. The Bruins will be looking to tighten things up after blowing a third period lead in an eventual 4-3 loss to the Devils last time out. Note that the B's have been stout defensively here at home this season, allowing just 2.5 goals per game. Already in a foul mood following the loss in New Jersey, Boston will also be seeking revenge after dropping its last matchup with the Rangers by a 4-0 score here on home ice back on March 13th. Note that the 'under' has cashed in eight of the last 12 meetings overall and four of the last five here at TD Garden. The Rangers were completely distracted by the Tom Wilson fiasco over the last two games, allowing a whopping 10 goals in consecutive losses to the Caps. Note that prior to those two contests, New York had held 11 of its last 13 opponents to three goals or less. Offensively, the Rangers will without question missing Artemi Panarin - keeping in mind, this is a team that has already been held to three goals or less in five straight games, averaging just 1.6 goals per game over that stretch. Also note that the 'under' has gone a perfect 6-0 with the Rangers coming off four or more consecutive losses over the last three seasons, with those games totaling an average of just 3.7 goals. We have seen the Rangers tighten things up off a home loss this season, allowing an average of just 2.1 goals. Take the under (10*). |
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05-06-21 | Brewers -115 v. Phillies | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 52 m | Show |
MLB Getaway Day Game of the Month. My selection is on Milwaukee over Philadelphia at 1:05 pm et on Thursday. The Phillies jumped ahead 5-0 in the first inning last night and held on for a 5-4 victory in a game they probably shouldn't have won. That was Philadelphia's third straight win to open this series but I like the Brewers to salvage the series finale on Thursday afternoon. Brandon Woodruff will be responsible for trying to turn the tide for the Brew Crew here and he should be up to the challenge against a Phillies club he's faced three times over the course of his career, giving up just one earned run on three hits over 18 innings of work. Of course, Woodruff has been terrific this season and checks in sporting an 18-4 team record in the first half of the season over the last two seasons, with the Brewers outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 2.2 runs. By contrast, Phillies starter Zack Wheeler has posted a 10-22 team record in the first half over the course of his career, with his teams outscored by an average margin of 1.5 runs. While the Brewers have a slight edge in terms of starters here, they also own a more considerable edge in the bullpen, even if it hasn't gone their way in this series to date. Entering last night's action, the Milwaukee bullpen had posted a 3.00 ERA over the last seven games. By contrast, the Phillies 'pen entered last night's contest having recorded a collective 5.09 ERA over its last seven games. While it did get the job done last night, it wasn't without major difficulty as the Brewers threatened virtually every inning. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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05-05-21 | Jets v. Flames OVER 5.5 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 22 m | Show |
NHL North Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Winnipeg and Calgary at 9:35 pm et on Wednesday. We missed the mark with the Jets on Monday night as they suffered a 2-1 loss in Ottawa - their seventh consecutive loss. We probably deserved a better fate as Winnipeg dominated possession and scoring chances in a game where they just as easily could have had four or five goals were it not for the exploits of Sens 22-year old goaltender Filip Gustavsson. We've certainly seen signs of the Jets offense breaking out as two games back they scored three goals in a loss in Montreal. Now we find Winnipeg averaging 4.1 goals per game when playing on the road after scoring one goal or less in its previous game over the last three seasons, with that situation producing an average total of 7.2 goals. We've seen the 'over' go 9-2 with the Jets coming off a game where four goals or less were scored, with an average total of 7.1 goals in those contests. Meanwhile, the Flames check in off a 4-1 loss against the rival Oilers on Saturday. In spite of that, they have been playing better hockey lately, scoring three goals or more in three of their last five games, going 3-2 over that stretch. Here, we find the Flames in a situation where the 'over' has gone 11-2 over the last three seasons, when they revenge a home loss by three goals or more, with that situation producing an average total of 8.2 goals. We've seen the Jets bounce back from poor offensive performances this season, but it's often come at the expense of their own defensively play as they've allowed 3.8 goals per game after scoring one goal or less in their previous contest this season, with that situation producing an average total of 6.9 goals. Finally, note that the 'over' checks in 4-3 in this matchup so far this season. Take the over (10*). |
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05-05-21 | Spurs v. Jazz OVER 218.5 | Top | 94-126 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'over' between San Antonio and Utah at 9:10 pm et on Wednesday. We missed the mark with the 'over' in the first game of this two-game set in Utah on Monday as the Jazz cruised to a 110-99 victory. Now we're dealing with an even lower posted total and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play. Note that the 'over' has gone 22-11 the last 33 times the Spurs have come off a road loss with those contests totaling an average of 231 points. The 'over' has also gone 9-1 with the Spurs coming off at least four straight losses over the last two seasons with that situation producing an average total of 233.1 points. The Jazz check in averaging an impressive 120.6 points per game when playing at home off a double-digit home win, as is the case here, with that situation producing a total of 226.5 points on average this season. Finally, note that San Antonio averages 117 points per game when revenging a double-digit road loss against an opponent over the last three seasons, with that spot producing an average total of 226.6 points. Utah will be without Donovan Mitchell and Mike Conley again here, but I'm still anticipating a relatively high-scoring affair, noting that five of the last nine meetings in this series have gone 'over' the total with three of the last four eclipsing the number we're dealing with tonight. Take the over (10*). |
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05-05-21 | Golden Knights v. Wild UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 104 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
NHL West Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Vegas and Minnesota at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Wild have now seen the 'over' cash in six straight games but I look for a different story to unfold on Wednesday night. Note that the 'under' is 3-2 in the last five meetings between these two teams in Minnesota and 7-4 in their last 11 matchups overall. This one sets up well as a potentially low-scoring game following Monday's wild (no pun intended) 6-5 result. The 'under' is 9-1 the last 10 times the Knights have played on the road following a road game where both teams scored at least three goals, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of just 4.8 goals. We've certainly seen Vegas tighten things up after a poor defensive showing in recent years as it has given up just 2.0 goals per game with the 'under' going 13-5 with an average total of just 4.6 goals when playing on the road after allowing five goals or more in its previous game. It's a similar story for the Wild as they've given up just 1.5 goals per game after allowing three goals or more in four consecutive games over the last three seasons, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
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05-05-21 | Brewers -130 v. Phillies | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -130 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
National League Non-Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Milwaukee over Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. I really like the way this one sets up for the Brewers as they look to get back at the Phillies after dropping the first two games in the series. Freddy Peralta will get the start for Milwaukee. He's been terrific, posting a 2.25 ERA and 1.00 WHIP through six appearances, five starts this season. It gets better as Peralta has recorded a stellar 27.5% hard-hit ball percentage - nearly 12% better than the MLB average. After holding opposing hitters to a collective .204 batting average last season he's been even better in early returns here in 2021, recording a .146 opponents batting average. Working behind Peralta is a Brewers bullpen that while not great overall this season, did enter last night's action having posted a collective 3.00 ERA over their last seven games. It's been a different story for the Phillies as their 'pen has posted a collective ERA north of five (entering last night's action). Chase Anderson will get the start for them on Wednesday. As I've noted before this season, he's pitching for his fourth different team since breaking in with the D'Backs in 2014. He hasn't fared particularly well this season as his strikeout rate is down and his walk rate is up while he's recorded a 43.3% hard-hit ball percentage, a 29.9% line drive percentage and a 28.4% fly ball percentage. Here, he'll face a Brewers lineup that is getting healthier with Lorenzo Cain returning to a starting role two nights ago before pinch-hitting in last night's contest. While Milwaukee has lost the first two games in this series it is still a solid 9-6 on the road this season. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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05-05-21 | Giants v. Rockies UNDER 10.5 | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
MLB N.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between San Francisco and Colorado at 3:10 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a pair of high-scoring games between these two teams in yesterday's double-header at Coors Field, totaling 16 and 14 runs. I expect a different story to unfold on Wednesday, however. Logan Webb gets the nod for the Giants. He's been effective so far in his third big league season, recording a 32.9% hard-hit ball percentage and an 85.7 mph exit velocity off opposing bats - both considerably better than the MLB average. He's also inducing ground balls at a tremendous rate, having posted a 58.5% ground ball percentage. That's not to mention a solid 22.8% strikeout percentage, which would be a career-high. Jon Gray has been even better for the Rockies. A former top-six Rookie of the Year candidate in 2016, Gray has been in excellent form through six starts this season, posting a 3.15 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. Gray has recorded a 30.3% hard-hit ball percentage and a 50.0% ground ball percentage. After posting a home run percentage 3.0% or higher in each of the last three seasons he's got that number down to 2.1% so far this season while holding opposing hitters to a collective .213 batting average. While neither bullpen is anything to write home about, I'm confident the starters can do enough to help keep this one 'under' the lofty total. Take the under (10*). |
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05-05-21 | White Sox v. Reds OVER 8 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 27 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Cincinnati at 12:35 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a lopsided result between these two teams last night as the White Sox cruised to a 9-0 victory. I expect both offenses to take part in today's contest, however, leading to a relatively high-scoring game. Dallas Keuchel will take the ball for Chicago. He turned back the clock and delivered a fine 2020 campaign, finishing fifth in A.L. Cy Young Award voting. He hasn't been able to regain that magic so far this season, despite a few strong outings, posting a 4.65 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. Keuchel's strikeout rate is down and his walk rate is up. He's still inducing ground balls at a solid rate but he has also recorded a hard-hit ball percentage north of 40%. Perhaps the biggest concern is the fact that he's yet to last beyond the sixth inning in any of his six starts, which should mean we'll see plenty of the White Sox bullpen, which owns an ERA north of five on the road this season. Sonny Gray missed time due to injury at the start of the season and has yet to really round into form, although he is coming off an 11-strikeout performance last time out. He has yet to last through six innings in any of his three starts this season and again that's a concern as the Reds bullpen owns a collective ERA north of six at home this season. We didn't see the slugfest most envisioned in the opener of this series last night as only one team showed up. Here, I look for both to contribute to what should be a high-scoring afternoon at the park. Take the over (10*). |
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05-04-21 | Oilers v. Canucks +1.5 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -141 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
NHL Puck-Line Game of the Month. My selection is on Vancouver +1.5 goals over Edmonton at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Oilers took the first game in this two-game set in Vancouver by a 5-3 score last night. The Canucks have now dropped five games in a row although four of those five losses came on the road. 12 of their 19 victories have come on home ice this season where they've been outscored by an average margin of just 0.2 goals. Note that Edmonton checks in 0-5 when coming off consecutive wins by two goals or more this season, as is the case here, outscored by 2.2 goals per game in that situation. Meanwhile, the Canucks have gone 16-9 when coming off a home loss over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by an average of 0.9 goals in that spot. As well as the Oilers have been playing, they haven't strung together three consecutive victories since March 17th to 20th. With this the second game of four in a row against Edmonton, look for the Canucks to show some push back on Tuesday night. We'll grab the insurance goal as the price warrants such a play. Take Vancouver +1.5 goals (10*). |
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05-04-21 | Indians v. Royals -134 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -134 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
MLB A.L. Central Game of the Year. My selection is on Kansas City over Cleveland at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. PLEASE NOTE: Phil Maton will now make the start for Cleveland. The play stands as originally posted on Kansas City. With a 42.1% hard-hit ball percentage and 91.4 mph exit velocity off opposing bats and a walk percentage north of 11%. The Indians took the first game of this series last night, their second straight victory, but I look for the Royals to answer back on Tuesday night. Sam Hentges will take the ball for the Indians. He was considered a top-20 prospect for the Indians last season but the jury is still out as to whether he's a viable option in the rotation. He was never able to prove himself in the minors, struggling mightily in Double-A ball two seasons ago prior to the Covid shutdown. Out of the bullpen this season he has labored through 5 2/3 innings of work, allowing eight hits, including three home runs. While we're talking about a small sample size, the big left-hander has recorded an ugly 52.6% hard-hit ball percentage and 91.7 mph exit velocity off opposing bats. Despite his 57.9% ground ball percentage, he has posted a .320 opponents' batting average. Veteran Mike Minor will counter for Kansas City. He's off to a very average start to the season but that's about par for the course for the left-hander. Minor has faced the Indians twice during his career with both of those starts coming in 2019. In those two starts he allowed just 10 hits and one earned run over 15 innings, including a start here in Kansas City where he outdueled Shane Bieber in a 4-2 victory. Minor has generally fared better in the first half of the season compared to the second half, with his teams outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.8 runs per game in his last 21 first half starts. Note that the Indians are just 5-7 and hitting a collective .184 against left-handed starting pitchers this season. Take Kansas City (10*). |
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05-04-21 | Nets +2 v. Bucks | Top | 118-124 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
NBA Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on Brooklyn plus the points over Milwaukee at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Nets are coming off consecutive losses, including a three-point setback in a poor all around performance here in Milwaukee on Sunday afternoon. I look for Brooklyn to answer back positively here on Tuesday as it finds itself in what I would consider a smash spot offensively after being held to 42.1% and 42.7% shooting in its last two games. Keep in mind, the Nets had shot 48.2% or better in seven of its previous 11 contests, even with what seems like a merry-go-round rotation on any given night. The Nets are averaging north of 119 points per game on an impressive 49.3% shooting on the road this season. Of course, the Bucks have been every bit as good offensively here at home this season and enter this game off consecutive victories. They haven't won three games in a row since April 11th to 15th, however, going just 5-4 SU and ATS since. They're certainly not invincible here at home, having lost five games outright here in Milwaukee since March 26th. Note that the Nets are 34-16 ATS when on the road revenging a loss in which their opponent scored 110 points or more over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by 0.8 points on average in that situation. Milwaukee checks in a miserable 7-17 ATS after winning five or six of its last seven games this season, as is the case here. The Bucks are also just 29-49 ATS when coming off a home win by three points or less the last 78 times that situation has come up. Take Brooklyn (10*). |
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05-03-21 | Blazers v. Hawks -1 | Top | 114-123 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
NBA Revenge Game of the Year. My selection is on Atlanta minus the points over Portland at 8:10 pm et on Monday. The Hawks are well-positioned to go on a late season run after a brief lull on the road last week. Trae Young returned to the lineup two games back and proceeded to pour in 30+ points in both contests. Now Atlanta draws a tough matchup with the surging Blazers on Monday with Portland coming off its fourth straight road win to open its current trip last night in Boston. I believe the Hawks will be up to the challenge in this revenge spot after suffering a 112-106 loss in Portland back in mid-January. Note that the last time these two teams met here in Atlanta, the Hawks prevailed by a 129-117 score last February. The Hawks shook off a three-game losing streak to deliver a 108-97 win over the Bulls on Saturday. They've scored just 104 and 108 points since Trae Young returned to the lineup but an offensive outburst is coming, and could very well come against a road-weary Blazers squad on Monday. Note that Portland allows 114.9 points per game on 47.6% shooting on the road this season. Meanwhile, Atlanta checks in 13-5 ATS as a home favorite this season, allowing just 104.3 points per game in that situation. The Hawks have put together a terrific stretch of defensive basketball here at home lately, allowing 96, 103, 104 and 97 points in their last four home games - all victories. Note that Atlanta is 26-14 ATS the last 40 times it has played at home revenging a loss against an opponent, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.9 points, which is more encouraging when you consider that trend goes back two seasons, when the Hawks were a far weaker team than they are this year. Take Atlanta (10*). |
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Sean Murphy ALL Sports Top Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
06-09-21 | Storm v. Dream +10 | Top | 95-71 | Loss | -113 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
06-08-21 | Golden Knights v. Avalanche -144 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -144 | 24 h 52 m | Show |
06-08-21 | Mariners +107 v. Tigers | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
06-08-21 | Hawks v. 76ers UNDER 223 | Top | 102-118 | Win | 100 | 22 h 9 m | Show |
06-08-21 | Braves v. Phillies OVER 8.5 | Top | 9-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
06-07-21 | Islanders v. Bruins -179 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -179 | 21 h 23 m | Show |
06-06-21 | Jets v. Canadiens UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -135 | 34 h 5 m | Show |
06-06-21 | Tigers v. White Sox OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -120 | 7 h 7 m | Show |
06-06-21 | Hawks v. 76ers UNDER 220.5 | Top | 128-124 | Loss | -105 | 30 h 36 m | Show |
06-05-21 | Red Sox v. Yankees -120 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -120 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
06-05-21 | Sky +5 v. Sparks | Top | 63-68 | Push | 0 | 6 h 24 m | Show |
06-04-21 | Reds v. Cardinals OVER 8 | Top | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
06-04-21 | Dream v. Lynx OVER 162.5 | Top | 84-86 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
06-04-21 | Canadiens v. Jets -114 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -114 | 14 h 36 m | Show |
06-04-21 | Astros v. Blue Jays -120 | Top | 13-1 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
06-03-21 | Suns v. Lakers OVER 207 | Top | 113-100 | Win | 100 | 17 h 37 m | Show |
06-03-21 | Suns v. Lakers -2 | Top | 113-100 | Loss | -104 | 16 h 26 m | Show |
06-03-21 | Tigers v. White Sox -199 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
06-03-21 | Hurricanes v. Lightning OVER 5.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 38 m | Show |
06-01-21 | Angels v. Giants OVER 6.5 | Top | 8-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
06-01-21 | Blazers v. Nuggets OVER 226 | Top | 140-147 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
06-01-21 | Twins v. Orioles OVER 9 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
05-31-21 | Jazz v. Grizzlies UNDER 225.5 | Top | 120-113 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 7 m | Show |
05-31-21 | Islanders v. Bruins OVER 5 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
05-31-21 | Angels v. Giants -130 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 9 m | Show |
05-30-21 | Angels v. A's -145 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -145 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
05-30-21 | Suns v. Lakers OVER 209.5 | Top | 100-92 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
05-29-21 | Jazz v. Grizzlies UNDER 224 | Top | 121-111 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 4 m | Show |
05-29-21 | Yankees -133 v. Tigers | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -133 | 7 h 20 m | Show |
05-29-21 | Chelsea v. Manchester City -112 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -112 | 30 h 39 m | Show |
05-29-21 | Bucks v. Heat +5 | Top | 120-103 | Loss | -112 | 6 h 20 m | Show |
05-28-21 | Rangers v. Mariners OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 48 m | Show |
05-28-21 | Lynx +7.5 v. Storm | Top | 72-82 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
05-28-21 | Clippers -2 v. Mavs | Top | 118-108 | Win | 100 | 16 h 45 m | Show |
05-27-21 | Suns v. Lakers -7 | Top | 95-109 | Win | 100 | 14 h 45 m | Show |
05-27-21 | Canadiens +1.5 v. Maple Leafs | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
05-27-21 | Wings v. Dream OVER 163.5 | Top | 95-101 | Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
05-27-21 | Padres -120 v. Brewers | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -120 | 6 h 18 m | Show |
05-26-21 | Hawks v. Knicks -2 | Top | 92-101 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
05-26-21 | Braves v. Red Sox OVER 10 | Top | 5-9 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
05-26-21 | Penguins +100 v. Islanders | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
05-25-21 | Lakers v. Suns OVER 208.5 | Top | 109-102 | Win | 100 | 14 h 13 m | Show |
05-25-21 | Predators v. Hurricanes UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
05-24-21 | Blazers v. Nuggets -1.5 | Top | 109-128 | Win | 100 | 15 h 14 m | Show |
05-24-21 | Cardinals v. White Sox -173 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
05-24-21 | Islanders v. Penguins -135 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -135 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
05-23-21 | Grizzlies v. Jazz -8.5 | Top | 112-109 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 45 m | Show |
05-23-21 | Everton v. Manchester City UNDER 3 | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 32 m | Show |
05-22-21 | Storm -6 v. Wings | Top | 100-97 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
05-22-21 | Rays v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -117 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
05-22-21 | Canadiens v. Maple Leafs -167 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
05-22-21 | Heat v. Bucks OVER 226.5 | Top | 107-109 | Loss | -113 | 7 h 56 m | Show |
05-21-21 | Mariners v. Padres OVER 7.5 | Top | 1-16 | Win | 103 | 15 h 43 m | Show |
05-21-21 | Avalanche v. Blues +1.5 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -123 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
05-21-21 | Jets v. Oilers -156 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -156 | 32 h 12 m | Show |
05-21-21 | Grizzlies v. Warriors UNDER 222 | Top | 117-112 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 10 m | Show |
05-20-21 | Astros v. A's OVER 8.5 | Top | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 2 m | Show |
05-19-21 | Tigers v. Mariners -135 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -135 | 14 h 31 m | Show |
05-19-21 | Predators v. Hurricanes UNDER 5.5 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
05-19-21 | Sky v. Dream OVER 159 | Top | 85-77 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
05-18-21 | Rockies v. Padres OVER 6.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -117 | 16 h 33 m | Show |
05-18-21 | Tigers v. Mariners -118 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -118 | 14 h 18 m | Show |
05-18-21 | Lightning v. Panthers +119 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 51 m | Show |
05-18-21 | Lynx -1.5 v. Liberty | Top | 75-86 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
05-17-21 | Indians v. Angels OVER 9 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 14 h 6 m | Show |
05-17-21 | Predators v. Hurricanes -179 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
05-16-21 | Wild v. Golden Knights OVER 5.5 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
05-15-21 | Aces v. Storm OVER 166 | Top | 83-97 | Win | 100 | 5 h 18 m | Show |
05-14-21 | Sun -2.5 v. Dream | Top | 78-67 | Win | 100 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
05-13-21 | Blazers v. Suns OVER 233 | Top | 117-118 | Win | 100 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
05-13-21 | Yankees v. Rays +1.5 | Top | 1-9 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
05-13-21 | Giants v. Pirates UNDER 8 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
05-12-21 | Kings v. Avalanche UNDER 5.5 | Top | 0-6 | Loss | -104 | 15 h 52 m | Show |
05-12-21 | Wizards v. Hawks -6 | Top | 116-120 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
05-12-21 | Oilers v. Canadiens UNDER 6 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -113 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
05-12-21 | Arsenal v. Chelsea -114 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -114 | 7 h 1 m | Show |
05-11-21 | Nets v. Bulls OVER 232 | Top | 115-107 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
05-11-21 | Canucks v. Jets OVER 5.5 | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -117 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
05-11-21 | Royals -126 v. Tigers | Top | 7-8 | Loss | -126 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
05-10-21 | Pelicans v. Grizzlies UNDER 228 | Top | 110-115 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
05-10-21 | Stars -130 v. Blackhawks | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
05-10-21 | Islanders v. Bruins UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
05-08-21 | Thunder v. Warriors -14 | Top | 97-136 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
05-08-21 | Devils v. Islanders -220 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 56 m | Show |
05-07-21 | Blues v. Golden Knights -158 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
05-07-21 | Cavs v. Mavs UNDER 221 | Top | 90-110 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
05-06-21 | Lakers v. Clippers OVER 211 | Top | 94-118 | Win | 100 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
05-06-21 | Blackhawks v. Hurricanes UNDER 6 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 103 | 22 h 53 m | Show |
05-06-21 | Rangers v. Bruins UNDER 5.5 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
05-06-21 | Brewers -115 v. Phillies | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 52 m | Show |
05-05-21 | Jets v. Flames OVER 5.5 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 22 m | Show |
05-05-21 | Spurs v. Jazz OVER 218.5 | Top | 94-126 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
05-05-21 | Golden Knights v. Wild UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 104 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
05-05-21 | Brewers -130 v. Phillies | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -130 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
05-05-21 | Giants v. Rockies UNDER 10.5 | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
05-05-21 | White Sox v. Reds OVER 8 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 27 m | Show |
05-04-21 | Oilers v. Canucks +1.5 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -141 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
05-04-21 | Indians v. Royals -134 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -134 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
05-04-21 | Nets +2 v. Bucks | Top | 118-124 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
05-03-21 | Blazers v. Hawks -1 | Top | 114-123 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |